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中国挑战美元世界主要货币地位,推动人民币国际化

KEITH BRADSHER

2025年6月19日

中国人民银行行长潘功胜周三在陆家嘴论坛上发表演讲。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The governor of China’s central bank outlined a plan on Wednesday for a global financial system that relies on several major currencies, not just the dollar, as Beijing steps up its campaign to weaken the U.S. dollar’s primacy.

周三,中国央行行长略述了一个建立在多种主要货币而非单一美元基础上的全球货币体系,此举是中国政府加强削弱美元主导地位努力的一部分。

Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, did not mention the dollar by name but gave an extended critique of the potential dangers of international reliance on a single country’s currency.

中国人民银行行长潘功胜对国际货币体系依赖一个国家的主权货币存在的潜在危险做了多方面的批评。

In a coded reference to the United States, Mr. Pan cited the dangers posed by fiscal and regulatory problems in the country issuing the world’s main currency.

潘功胜列举了发行国际主导货币的国家的财政和监管问题给世界带来的风险,这是在隐晦地提及美国。

These problems may “overflow to the world in the form of financial risks, and even evolve into an international financial crisis,” he said.

他说,这些问题“会以金融风险的形式向全球溢出,甚至演变为国际金融危机”。

The Trump administration has spoken about weakening the dollar against other currencies to make U.S. exports more attractive to buyers abroad. The dollar has weakened considerably this year, including an 11 percent decline against the euro.

特朗普政府已表示要让美元贬值,以提高美国出口产品对海外买家的吸引力。美元今年已显著走弱,对欧元汇率已下跌了11%。

A weaker dollar could help narrow the American trade deficit. But it also has the potential to increase the cost of U.S. government borrowing amid ever-rising federal budget deficits.

虽然美元走弱会有助于缩小美国的贸易逆差,但在联邦预算赤字不断增长之际也可能增加美国政府的借贷成本。

China has kept the value of its currency, the renminbi, tightly linked to the dollar. That has meant it has fallen along with the dollar, making the price of China’s exports even more competitive in Europe, a major trading partner, and elsewhere.

中国一直让人民币与美元紧密挂钩。这意味着人民币对欧元汇率也在随着美元走弱,让中国出口产品的价格在其主要贸易伙伴——欧洲及其他地区更有竞争力。

18Biz China Econ 01 kzhp master1050广州的一个服装工人社区。中国政府正在强调加大对先进制造业的支持力度,提升人民币在全球的地位,而不是帮助消费者。

The dollar is by far the primary currency used in global trade, including when China is involved, followed by the euro. The renminbi has grown in use in recent years but remains a minor player in international trade.

美元目前仍是全球贸易中最主要的结算货币,包括涉及中国的贸易往来,其次为欧元。近年来,虽然人民币的使用有所增加,但在国际贸易中仍处于次要地位。

Mr. Pan warned that a country with a dominant currency inevitably seeks to unfairly “weaponize” it during geopolitical conflicts. China is closely aligned with Russia, Iran and North Korea and has objected to American measures aimed at choking off commerce with those countries.

潘功胜警告称,拥有国际主导货币的国家在地缘政治冲突中难免会不公平地将其“武器化”。中国与俄罗斯、伊朗,以及朝鲜关系密切,一直反对美国旨在切断这些国家商业往来的制裁措施。

China buys practically all of Iran’s oil exports and much of Russia’s oil and gas exports, and conducts these transactions through small Chinese banks and companies that have little need for dollars.

中国几乎包揽了伊朗全部的石油出口,以及俄罗斯油气出口的大部分,这些交易通过中国的小型银行和公司进行,基本上不需要用美元结算。

The strength of the dollar lies partly in its widespread use in financing international trade. Banks often rely on long-established procedures that are tied to the dollar, including some that still send faxes. Mr. Pan took aim at these arrangements, calling for more cross-border payments to use emerging technologies, including China’s digital renminbi. That could make it easier to experiment with transactions in currencies other than the dollar.

美元的强势地位部分来自于它在国际贸易融资中的广泛使用。银行体系长期依赖以美元为中心的传统结算流程,其中某些环节至今仍在使用传真机。潘功胜把批评的矛头对准这些安排,呼吁在跨境支付体系中更多地使用新兴技术,包括中国的数字人民币。那可能会让尝试使用非美元进行国际贸易变得更容易。

Mr. Pan and other top Chinese officials spoke on Wednesday at the opening in Shanghai of the Lujiazui Forum, the main annual gathering of China’s financial policymakers and executives.

潘功胜的演讲是在周三上海陆家嘴论坛的开幕式上发表的,致辞的还有其他中国高层官员。该论坛被视为中国金融政策制定者和高管们的年度主要聚会。

China faces formidable obstacles in promoting the renminbi as an alternative to the dollar. One of the biggest is that China has a huge and still rising trade surplus. As a result, much of the renminbi in overseas circulation is typically used to buy more Chinese goods or pay debts to China.

在推动人民币成为美元替代品的过程中,中国面临着巨大障碍。其中最为突出是持续扩大的巨额贸易顺差。因此,在境外流通的人民币中,很大一部分通常用于购买更多的中国商品或偿还欠中国的债务。

In addition, China tightly restricts how renminbi can be moved in or out of the country. The goal is to prevent Chinese companies and households from sending their savings to other countries for safekeeping or better financial returns. But these restrictions make the renminbi an ineffective way for foreigners to store value.

此外,中国严格限制人民币的跨境流动。目的是防止国内企业和家庭把储蓄转移到其他国家,寻求资产保值或更高投资收益。但这类限制也导致人民币难以成为外国投资者有效的价值储存工具。

Beijing has in recent years persuaded developing countries to settle some of their trade balances with China in renminbi.

近年来,中国政府已说服了多个发展中国家在对华贸易中使用人民币进行结算。

“China is not globalizing the renminbi in the Western sense, but regionalizing it — embedding the currency in trade, payments, and state-to-state ties, particularly across the Global South,” said Dan Wang, a China economist in the Singapore office of the Eurasia Group.

“中国并不是在西方意义上让人民币全球化,而是推进人民币的区域化——将其纳入到贸易结算、支付系统以及国家间关系中来,尤其是在全球南方国家之间,”欧亚集团新加坡办事处的中国经济学家王丹说。

Mr. Pan conspicuously did not mention the financial struggles of China’s consumers in his remarks on Wednesday. Neither did Chen Jining, the Politburo member who is the Communist Party leader of Shanghai. He gave the opening speech at the forum and focused on the role of China’s financial sector in bankrolling investment in scientific and technological innovation.

潘功胜在周三的演讲中只字未提中国消费者面临的财务困境。陈吉宁也没提这个问题,他是中共中央政治局委员和上海市委书记。陈吉宁在论坛上发表了开幕词,重点讨论了中国金融行业在为科技创新提供资金方面起的作用。

The government-controlled banking sector has rapidly ramped up lending to manufacturers of electric cars, solar panels and other advanced technologies. At the same time, a collapse in the country’s housing market has dealt a severe blow to consumer spending.

政府控制的银行业已迅速增加了对电动汽车、太阳能电池板,以及其他先进技术制造商的贷款。与此同时,房地产市场的崩溃已重挫消费者支出。

Much of the country’s urban middle class has lost their life savings as apartment prices have fallen by a third to half. Prices started to plunge in 2021 after the government moved to address a decades-long speculative bubble that had driven real estate up as much as 20-fold in many cities, leaving new apartments unaffordable for many people.

随着房价已下跌三分之一到一半,中国许多城市中产阶级的毕生积蓄大幅缩水。政府在2021年采取限购措施,着手解决持续了几十年的房地产投机泡沫问题后,房价开始暴跌。房地产投机泡沫曾导致许多城市的房地产价格上涨了高达20倍,让许多人买不起新房。

Faint hints of a stabilization in consumer spending have emerged recently. Retail sales rose 6.4 percent in May from the same month last year, which was more than most economists had expected.

近期已出现了消费支出略有回稳的微弱迹象。今年5月份的零售额与去年同期相比增长了6.4%,高于大多数经济学家的预期。

But that gain, revealed in data issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, was propelled by sharp increases in a few categories of products made mainly in China, like household appliances, that have become eligible for government trade-in subsidies.

这个数据是中国国家统计局周一发布的,但5月零售额增长主要是受家电等几类以国产为主的产品强劲表现所推动,它们纳入了政府以旧换新补贴政策的范围。

Li You对本文有研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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