President Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing U.S. embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China’s leaders trying to fathom how he might handle conflict over Taiwan.

特朗普总统先是谴责美国卷入对外战争，之后又决定攻击伊朗的核设施，这给中国领导人带来了另一个复杂因素，他们正试图琢磨特朗普可能会如何处理台湾问题上的冲突。

Chinese officials and experts were already trying to game out Mr. Trump’s approach to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. They will now likely be assessing the Iran strikes for new insights into Mr. Trump, who had opposed military action months earlier while he pursued diplomacy, and then rained missiles and bombs on three key nuclear sites on Sunday.

中国官员和专家本就在试图摸清特朗普对台策略，北京声称这个民主岛屿是其领土。他们现在可能会评估特朗普对伊朗的打击行动，以加深对他的了解。几个月前，特朗普在寻求外交途径的同时反对采取军事行动，而在周日，他又向伊朗三个关键的核设施发射了导弹和炸弹。

For China, Mr. Trump is a bit of a wild card in scenarios of how the United States would respond to Beijing’s efforts to bring Taiwan to heel, including any attempt to take the island by force. The United States has long helped fend off China’s military pressure and deter a possible attack by selling Taiwan weapons and holding out the option that it could send forces if war erupts.

对中国而言，在预测美国如何回应北京迫使台湾就范努力（包括任何以武力夺取台湾的企图）的各种设想中，特朗普有点像一个不确定因素。长期以来，美国通过对台军售以及保留在战争爆发时可能军事介入的选项帮助台湾抵御中国的军事压力，阻止可能发生的攻击。

Some Chinese analysts have questioned whether, with the right cajoling or warnings, Mr. Trump may be persuaded to ease America’s support of Taiwan. After all, in his trade war with China, Mr. Trump veered from imposing sky-high tariffs to agreeing to a provisional truce, basically backing down after China choked off shipments of critical minerals. The Iran strikes further illustrated Mr. Trump’s mercurial style.

一些中国分析人士提出，是否有可能通过适当的劝诱或警告说服特朗普放松美国对台湾的支持。毕竟，在与中国的贸易战中，特朗普从征收天价关税转向同意临时休战，基本上是在中国切断关键矿产的运输后做出了让步。对伊朗的袭击进一步说明了特朗普反复无常的风格。

“After the Iran strikes, I suspect that Chinese leaders will now be more nervous about testing President Trump’s resolve” on Taiwan, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “Caution is warranted, both because Trump appears more willing to use force than many expected, but also because his actions seem less predictable.”

“在伊朗遭到袭击之后，我怀疑中国领导人现在会更加紧张，不敢（在台湾问题上）考验特朗普总统的决心，”美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀说。“谨慎是有必要的，不仅因为特朗普动用武力的意愿超出预期，也因为他的行动似乎不那么容易预测。”

Before the attack, China seemed to have stepped up efforts to sound out Mr. Trump’s thinking on Taiwan.

在这次袭击之前，中国似乎已加大努力探听特朗普在台湾问题上的想法。

中国国家主席习近平3月在北京人民大会堂。他指责台湾政府挑衅对抗、制造冲突。

During a call with Mr. Trump earlier this month, Mr. Xi stressed the importance of Taiwan. He suggested that he and Mr. Trump should be like co-captains steering the “great ship of China-U.S. relations,” in what looked like an attempt to drive a wedge between Mr. Trump and American officials who take a hard line against Beijing.

在本月早些时候与特朗普的通话中，习近平强调了台湾的重要性。他提出，他和特朗普应该像共同船长一样，为“中美关系这艘大船”掌舵，这似乎是试图在特朗普与那些对北京采取强硬立场的美国官员之间制造隔阂。

Beijing calls Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, a separatist, and this week fiercely denounced him for a recent speech in which he laid out his case that Taiwan is an “independent country.” Mr. Xi has accused Mr. Lai’s government of courting “confrontation and even conflict.” Taiwan’s government, and many on both sides of politics in Washington, say that it is China’s menacing behavior that is stoking tensions.

北京称台湾总统赖清德为分裂分子，并在本周对他最近的一次讲话发起猛烈抨击，他在讲话中阐述了台湾是一个“主权独立国家”的立场。习近平指责赖清德政府寻求“冲突对抗”。台湾政府和华盛顿政界两党中的许多人都表示，正是中国的威胁性行为激化了紧张局势。

Some Chinese researchers who recently met American counterparts seemed to be trying to assess Mr. Trump’s red lines. “The Chinese experts I’ve met with have been asking pointed questions about what Trump would do if Beijing took action against Taiwan,” Mr. Cooper said.

最近与美国同行会面的一些中国研究人员似乎在试图评估特朗普的红线在哪里。“我接触过的中国专家一直在问一些尖锐的问题，比如如果北京对台湾采取行动，特朗普会怎么做，”库珀说。

China’s probing has long played out in action. It has stepped up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond, and also trying to wear down the Taiwanese military.

中国的试探早已付诸行动。近年来，中国加强了在台湾周边的军事活动和海警行动，试探台湾和美国及其盟友的反应，同时也试图削弱台湾军队。

That pressure is unlikely to let up. China sends military aircraft near Taiwan nearly every day, sometimes in the dozens. In May, Beijing deployed as many as 70 warships off the eastern coast of China, a senior Taiwanese security official told reporters this month. For the first time, China sent two aircraft carriers and supporting naval ships into the Pacific this month, beyond what is known as the first island chain, which includes the Japanese archipelago and Taiwan, drawing protests from Tokyo.

这种压力不太可能缓解。中国几乎每天都会出动军机靠近台湾，有时多达数十架次。台湾一名高级安全官员本月告诉记者，今年5月，北京在中国东部沿海部署了多达70艘军舰。本月，中国首次派遣两艘航母和护卫舰进入太平洋，越过了包括日本列岛和台湾在内的第一岛链，引发了东京方面的抗议。

去年竞选台湾总统期间，赖清德在台北进行的造势活动。

China wants to be ready for the spectrum of possibilities for Taiwan under Mr. Trump, including “a rapid escalation in tensions or even things slipping out of control,” said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

中国希望为特朗普任期内台湾问题的各种可能性做好准备，包括“紧张的急速升级，甚至失控”，上海复旦大学台湾研究中心主任信强说。

“The issues around Iran and Taiwan are very different, and the range of factors that shape U.S. decision-making are also very different,” Professor Xin said. But he saw a broad lesson in Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran: “This implies that when President Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy.”

“伊朗和台湾问题因为还是差别很大的，影响美国决策的各方面的因素差别也是也是很大的，”信强说。但他从特朗普对伊朗的攻击中看到了一个广泛的教训：“这就意味着特朗普总统还是在他觉得必要的条件之下会选择使用武力来推行美国的外交政策。”

Mr. Trump’s administration has signaled support for Taiwan, while also urging it to rapidly increase military spending. In a speech in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China’s military threat “could be imminent.” But Mr. Hegseth also made clear that Mr. Trump called the shots.

特朗普政府已经释放信号支持台湾，同时也敦促台湾迅速增加军事开支。国防部长海格塞斯在新加坡的一次演讲中警告 称，中国的军事威胁“可能迫在眉睫”。但海格塞斯也明确表示，特朗普才是说了算的人。

That’s what worries some in Washington and Taipei: that Beijing could persuade Mr. Trump to dilute, in actions or just words, U.S. support for Taiwan, which deepened in Mr. Trump’s first term and then under President Biden.

这正是华盛顿和台北的一些人所担心的：北京可能会说服特朗普在行动或言辞上淡化美国对台湾的支持，这种支持在特朗普的第一个任期和后来的拜登政府时期不断加深。

“The administration as a whole seems to be predominantly pursuing continuity” in security support for Taiwan, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. “It’s the president himself that introduces the uncertainty and unpredictability.”

“美国政府作为一个整体似乎主要追求对台湾安全支持的连续性，”华盛顿的德国马歇尔基金会台湾和中国问题专家葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说。“是总统本人带来了不确定性和不可预测性"。

2023年，台湾桃园举行的一场军事演习。

Some experts in Taiwan praised Mr. Trump’s strike on Iran as an indirect message to Beijing. “It’s hitting the little brother, Iran, to warn the big brothers, Russia and China,” said Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

台湾的一些专家称赞特朗普对伊朗的打击，认为这是向北京发出的间接信息。“是打小弟伊朗给大哥俄中看，”政府资助的国防安全研究所研究员欧锡富说。

But when it comes to Taiwan, Mr. Trump, like most recent U.S. presidents, has been deliberately vague about whether the United States would defend the island if China attacked, a position designed to deter Beijing while restraining Taiwan.

但在台湾问题上，特朗普和最近几任美国总统一样，在中国进攻台湾时美国是否会保卫台湾的问题上故意含糊其辞，这一立场旨在威慑北京，同时牵制台湾。

He has also questioned how effective U.S. intervention could be against China’s forces, which are much closer to Taiwan. In his first term, Mr. Trump likened Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie marker and China to the bulky Resolute Desk in the White House, according to John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser.

他还质疑美国的干预面对中国军队究竟有多大效果，因为中国军队离台湾更近。据特朗普的前国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿说，特朗普在第一任期内曾把台湾比作时马克笔的笔尖，而把中国比作白宫里笨重的“坚毅桌”。

And while Mr. Trump has criticized China’s economic practices and its handling of Covid, he has also declared his admiration for Mr. Xi, saying after their latest call that the leaders had invited each other and their spouses to visit.

虽然特朗普曾批评中国的经济行为以及对新冠疫情的处理方式，但也表达了对习近平的钦佩，并在最近一次通话后表示，两国领导人已相互邀请对方携配偶来访。

Should the leaders meet, even seemingly minor concessions in how Mr. Trump’s talks about Taiwan could be a win for Beijing, given the island’s reliance on assurances from Washington, said Amanda Hsiao, the China director for the Eurasia Group, a firm that advises investors.

投资顾问公司欧亚集团的中国事务总监萧嫣然说，如果两位领导人会面，考虑到台湾对华盛顿承诺的依赖，在特朗普谈及台湾时即使做出看似微小的让步，对北京来说也可能是一场胜利。

Still, China’s leaders are also steeled for the risk of a crisis over Taiwan. And they are confident that their military is much more formidable than the weakened Iranian forces that Israeli and U.S. forces overcame, Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told an online briefing this week. China has about 3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a fast-expanding navy.

尽管如此，中国领导人也做好了应对台海危机风险的准备。新美国安全中心高级研究员斯塔西·佩蒂约翰本周在一次线上简报会上表示，中国有信心他们的军队比伊朗军队强大得多，后者被以色列和美国军队击败并遭到削弱。中国拥有大约3500枚导弹，以及不断增长的核武库和快速扩张的海军。

“The U.S. couldn’t just swoop in there with an exquisite capability and launch a limited number of strikes and win,” Ms. Pettyjohn said of a possible conflict over Taiwan. “That is something that would be very clear to Beijing.”

“美国不可能凭借高超的能力迅速介入，发动几次打击就一举取胜，”佩蒂约翰在谈到可能发生的台海冲突时说。“对北京来说，这一点是非常清楚的。”

美国海军一架侦察机在南中国海执行任务，摄于2018年。