2025年7月2日
Remember the fairy tale of globalization?
还记得全球化的童话吗?
Once upon a time, many Americans believed China would inevitably become more like us just by plugging into the world trading order that we established and maybe, as President Bill Clinton once suggested, even democratize. The final victory of American-led neoliberalism was close at hand.
曾几何时,有不少美国人相信,只要将中国纳入我们建立起来的世界贸易秩序,它就不可避免地会变得更像我们,而且或许像克林顿总统曾经暗示的那样,甚至走向民主化。美国主导的新自由主义的最终胜利近在咫尺。
Mr. Clinton and others like him weren’t entirely wrong. China has spent decades emulating key elements of the American model of entrepreneurialism, consumerism and integration with global markets. It made China an industrial power, with a large middle class, cutting-edge science and technology, and global brands like Huawei, Lenovo and Alibaba. China’s 1.4 billion people live far more diverse and prosperous lifestyles than ever. Through it all, America was the model.
克林顿和其他持类似观点的人并非完全错了。中国几十年来一直在效仿美国模式中的企业家精神、消费主义、融入全球市场等关键要素。这已使中国成为一个工业强国,孕育出庞大的中产阶级以及尖端的科学技术,还有华为、联想、阿里巴巴等全球品牌。14亿中国人享受着前所未有的富足与多元。在此过程中,美国是参照的蓝本。
What neither Americans nor Chinese imagined was how much this would become a two-way street.
美国人和中国人都始料未及的是,这个进程最后变成了一个双向通道。
In the great contest of ideas and influence between the two countries, the pendulum seems as if it’s swinging back the other way. Donald Trump’s return to office has made clear that in important respects — democratic erosion, the fixation on strong borders, the curbing of free speech and numerous other examples — America is starting to look a bit more like China.
在这场美中思想与影响力的宏大博弈中,钟摆似乎像朝着另一个方向摆动。特朗普总统的再次当选已清楚地表明,在一些重要方面,美国已开始变得有几分像中国:对民主制度的侵蚀,对边境管控的执念、对言论自由的限制,还有许多其他的例子。
I’ve lived in Shanghai since 2008, with a front-row seat to the culmination of China’s rise. There is indeed much that America can learn from China. But perhaps the most important lesson is to stay true to who we are as a nation. That’s what China did. It adopted aspects of the American way that would make it strong again, while sticking to its core system of Communist Party political domination and heavy state involvement in everything. And it has been spectacularly successful.
自2008年定居上海以来,我亲历了中国崛起的巅峰时刻。美国确有很多可向中国借鉴之处,但最重要的启示或许是:坚守我们的立国之本。中国正是这么做的。它吸收了美国模式中一些让中国再次强大的方面,同时始终坚持自己的基本制度,即中共的政治主导地位和国家高度参与所有事务。这个做法取得了惊人的成功。
Trump’s America, on the other hand, is beginning to seem as if it’s taking cues from China’s political model. That’s not who we are.
另一方面,特朗普上台后的美国似乎开始模仿中国的政治模式。这绝非我们的立国之道。
The MAGA movement and its leaders demonize the Chinese Communist Party. But some of their actions validate the party’s ways, showing that practically speaking, they seem to want similar things.
虽然“让美国再次伟大”(简称MAGA)运动及其领导人对中共妖魔化,但他们的一些行为却是对中共做法的认同,表明他们其实似乎想得到类似的东西。
Both push a muscular patriotism, are obsessed with manufacturing and hostile to immigrants. Both want a country where ethnic minorities are expected to bow to the dominant group and traditional gender roles are enforced. And all of this is presided over by a domineering ruling party led by an autocrat who flatters himself with military parades. Imitation is indeed the highest form of flattery.
中共和MAGA运动都推崇强烈的爱国主义,都对制造业着迷,对移民持敌视态度。它们都想要一个少数族裔被要求屈从于主体族群、传统性别角色得到强化的国家。而且所有这一切都是在一个专制的执政党领导下,这个执政党的领袖用阅兵式来展示自命不凡。效仿的确是最高形式的奉承。
The evidence mounts daily.
这方面的证据与日俱增。
China weaponizes its economy to punish trading partners over various disputes or mere slights; the Trump administration squeezes U.S. allies with arbitrary tariffs or other retaliation over issues such as fentanyl and politics.
中国将经济武器化,因为各种争端或只是微小的冒犯便惩罚贸易伙伴;特朗普政府则通过随意加征关税或采取其他报复手段,对美国的盟友施压,理由包括芬太尼问题或政治分歧等。
Geopolitically, China prioritizes relationships of convenience, such as its ties with Russia, over formal alliances. It bullies its neighbors, stoking territorial disputes with a mentality summed up by former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who bluntly told Southeast Asian officials in 2010 that “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact.” Mr. Trump, too, sees little value in alliances and seems intent on alienating friends and neighbors with his threats to absorb Canada and Greenland and moving to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
在地缘政治层面,中国将权宜关系置于正式的盟友关系之上,比如与俄罗斯的关系。中国欺凌邻国、挑起领土争端的心态已被前外交部长杨洁篪暴露无遗,他在2010年直言不讳地告诉东南亚的官员们:“中国是大国,其他国家是小国,这只是一个事实。”特朗普也认为联盟没有多少价值,他威胁吞并加拿大和格陵兰岛、重新命名墨西哥湾的做法,无不显露疏离友邻的意图。
Economically, Americans have long criticized China for overemphasizing manufacturing and flooding world markets with Chinese goods while neglecting to spur the domestic consumption that would balance its economy and trade. But much like Mr. Xi, MAGA leaders see manufacturing as noble, and globalization as turning Americans into passive consumers.
在经济方面,美国人长期以来批评中国过分强调制造业,向世界市场倾销中国商品,却忽视了国内消费的发展,让中国的经济和贸易发展失衡。但MAGA运动的领导人与习近平差不多,也把制造业视为崇高行业,认为全球化将美国人变成了被动消费者。
The U.S. and Chinese political systems are of course fundamentally different at their core. But our domestic politics increasingly track closer to China’s as the Trump administration undermines basic constitutional rights and the judicial process and casts a chill over free speech and protest.
诚然,美中政治制度在本质上存在根本差别。但随着特朗普政府削弱宪法赋予的基本权利、破坏司法程序、压制言论自由与抗议活动,美国国内的政治环境与中国越来越相似。
As different as the United States and China are, deeply similar national conditions are driving this convergence.
尽管美中差别巨大,但深层次上高度相似的国情正在推动两国趋同。
China leaned into the American model to rebuild industrially and catch up to the West. Today, it is America that is worried about falling behind. People in both countries worry about artificial intelligence and automation taking jobs and changing how we work, live and interact as a society. Many disillusioned young people in both countries feel left out of their nation’s economies and wonder what’s the point of pursuing careers.
中国在实现工业振兴、追赶西方时曾向美国模式倾斜。如今,担忧落后的却是美国。两国人民都担心人工智能和自动化会抢走就业机会,改变我们的工作、生活以及参与社会互动的方式。两国都有不少失意的年轻人觉得他们被国内经济甩在了后面,甚至质疑职业追求的意义何在。
These shared challenges, not surprisingly, lead to similarly populist political solutions. For Mr. Xi, it’s the Chinese Dream, his patriotic vision of a China restored to its ancient prosperity and power. Mr. Trump has ridden its younger sibling, “Make America Great Again,” to two election victories.
一点也不奇怪的是,这些共同的挑战导致两国都采取了类似的民粹主义政治解决方案。对习近平来说,就是所谓的“中国梦”,是他为恢复中国古代曾经有过的繁荣和强大提出的爱国主义愿景。这个愿景的小弟弟——“让美国再次伟大”的理念已让特朗普两次赢得了总统大选。
Much of what China does is worthy of respect. Its government makes farsighted industrial policy as a matter of habit. It proactively presents new technologies like artificial intelligence to its people as positive forces, introducing them in ways that benefit the public, such as in education and health care. China is aggressively transitioning to renewable energy, and new estimates indicate that its greenhouse gas emissions — the world’s highest — have begun to fall for the first time. China has clean, safe, efficient and high-tech cities, knit together by immaculate highways and a state-of-the-art rail network. Government funding and investment is flowing into education, science and technology.
中国的许多做法值得钦佩。中国政府制定富有远见的产业政策已成常态。主动把人工智能等新技术作为一种积极力量向老百姓推广,通过教育和医疗等公共服务惠及大众。中国正全力转向可再生能源,新的评估表明,曾是全球最高的中国温室气体排放量现已首次开始下降。中国有清洁、安全、高效的智慧型城市,它们通过整洁如新的高速公路和最先进的铁路网络紧密相连。政府还一直在教育和科技领域投入源源不断的资金。
It’s natural for Americans who want a better future to look, albeit grudgingly, at what China has achieved. To be sure, leaders in Beijing don’t have a messy democracy to get in the way of their plans, but that’s hardly the only reason for China’s success. It came also from strategic foresight, investing in the future, a sense of national focus and unity — not division — that comes from the top and millions of individuals working hard to build the country up. China followed America’s lead, but it stuck to its own systems and stayed focused on meeting the basic needs of its population.
渴望更美好未来的美国人自然会关注中国取得的成就,纵使不情愿。确实,中国领导人在制定计划时无需受制于纷乱的民主程序,但这远非中国成功的唯一原因。战略远见、投资未来、一种自上而下的国家专注和团结(而非分裂)意识以及亿万民众建设国家的辛勤耕耘共同铸就了今日的成果。中国学习了美国的榜样,但坚持自己的制度,并始终把注意力集中在满足民众的基本需求上。
The United States can and should consider adopting some of what has worked for China, such as transitioning to renewables; revitalizing industrial policy; supporting science, research and education; reinvesting in infrastructure, housing and safe cities; and above all, having a sense of collective purpose that leads to national strength.
美国可以而且应该考虑借鉴一些中国行之有效的做法,例如向可再生能源转型,振兴产业政策,支持科研教育,重新投资基础设施、住房和安全城市项目,尤其需要培育能转化为国力的集体使命意识。
Instead, Mr. Trump’s administration is undermining or slashing funding for critical things such as public safety, infrastructure, education, scientific research, clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, while fanning political divisions.
特朗普政府目前的做法却是在削弱或大幅削减关键领域的资金,如公共安全、基础设施、教育、科学研究、清洁能源,以及半导体制造,同时煽动政治对立。
We can learn from China, but we must find a way to make it work while remaining true to our founding principles. Otherwise, when the smoke clears from the Trump era, America might not be “great again,” but weaker. And we will have found that the student has become the master.
我们可以向中国学习,但我们需要找到一个既行之有效、又坚守我们立国精神的方法。否则,特朗普时代的迷雾散去后,美国也许不是“再次伟大”,而是变得更弱。届时我们会发现,以前的学生已变成了师傅。