The Dalai Lama has spent decades in exile thinking about ways to prevent the Chinese government from taking control of Tibetan Buddhism after his death and ending the struggle for Tibetan autonomy.

在流亡的数十年间，达赖喇嘛始终在思考如何防止中国政府在他圆寂后控制藏传佛教，结束西藏争取自治的斗争。

Early on, he suggested that the institution of the Dalai Lama could be ended altogether to deprive Beijing of a target to exploit. Later, he focused on how to keep the Chinese Communist Party from installing its own choice to succeed him. He floated a sharp break from precedent, saying he might transfer his spiritual powers to an adult during his lifetime to avoid the vacuum that would come with selecting a child as his reincarnation and successor.

他曾在早些时候建议彻底结束达赖喇嘛的转世制度，让中国政府没有可乘之机。后来，他把重点放在怎样阻止中国共产党指定他的继任者。他曾提出一个与先例迥然不同的想法，称他也许会在自己在世时将精神领袖的权力移交给一名成年人，以避免把一名儿童选为其转世灵童和继承人所带来的权力真空。

But on Wednesday, as senior monks filed into a much-anticipated conference in Dharamsala, India, as part of 90th birthday celebrations for the Dalai Lama, he made clear that tradition would prevail.

但周三，在印度达兰萨拉举行的一个备受期待的会议上，高僧们鱼贯而入，这是庆祝达赖喇嘛90岁生日活动的一部分，他明确表示，传统将会延续。

The institution of the Dalai Lama, he said, will continue. And his successor will be selected through the usual process of reincarnation.

他说，达赖喇嘛的转世制度将继续下去。他的继任者将通过寻找转世灵童的惯常程序来加以确定。

His decision reflected the fine line that even a modernizing Dalai Lama must tread between preserving a core element of Tibetan Buddhism and shielding it from political manipulation by Beijing.

他的决定反映了即使是致力于现代化的达赖喇嘛，也需要在维护藏传佛教的核心要素与避免其受到中国政府政治操纵之间把握微妙的分寸。

It showed the limits of his powers to reshape the institution he has towered over for more than seven decades, as well as his pragmatic understanding of Tibetans’ David-vs.-Goliath struggle against the Chinese government.

这也显示出，虽然主持藏传佛教制度70多年，但他重塑制度的权力有限，同时还表明他对藏人与中国政府之间力量悬殊的斗争有着务实的领悟。

“The issue in probably any religion, but especially a religion where you have a leader who’s modernizing, is how far can you push your community to take up a new approach,” said Robert Barnett, a scholar of Tibet at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

“也许任何宗教都会面临这样的问题，尤其是领袖希望推动现代化时，他究竟可以在多大程度上推动信众接受新的做法，”伦敦亚非学院的藏学研究者罗伯特·巴内特说。

“He may have sensed that the community wasn’t quite ready to take this new step of succession,” he added.

“他可能已经感觉到，信众们还没有完全准备好接受这种继承方式上的重大变革，”巴内特补充道。

行走在达兰萨拉经幡前的僧侣，摄于周三。

Still, even as the Dalai Lama seemed to close the door on out-of-the-box ideas, he sought to lay down boundaries that would shut out an authoritarian Beijing. He made clear that his office had “sole authority” in identifying the next Dalai Lama.

尽管如此，就在达赖喇嘛似乎堵死了打破常规的想法之际，他仍试图划定一道明确的界限，以阻止威权的中国政府插手未来继任者的认定。他明确表示，达赖喇嘛的办公室是确认转世灵童的“唯一权威机构”。

“No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” he said in a video message to the monks.

“其他任何人都无权干涉，”他在向僧侣发表的视频讲话中说。

His statement, which he read through large reading glasses from a sheet of paper he held in front of him, emphasized the consultative process through which he had reached his decision on the matter of succession.

他戴着老花镜，宣读了手中的声明，强调了他在转世灵童问题上的决定是通过协商过程做出的。

The Chinese Communist Party, which has sought to erode the influence of the Dalai Lama in Tibet, asserts that only it has the authority to choose his reincarnation, despite being committed to atheism in its ranks.

中国共产党一直寻求削弱达赖喇嘛在西藏的影响力，声称唯有中共才有权选择达赖喇嘛的转世灵童，尽管中共党员都不得信教。

The Dalai Lama fled China in 1959 after the Chinese Army invaded Tibet to bring the region under the control of the Communist Party. He has lived in India ever since, helping to establish a democracy in exile while traveling the world to advocate autonomy and cultural and religious freedom for the Tibetan people.

1959年中国军队入侵西藏，将该地区置于中共控制之下后，达赖喇嘛出走。那之后，他一直生活在印度，不仅协助建立了流亡政府的民主体系，并经常在世界各地奔走呼吁，为西藏人民争取自治以及文化和宗教自由。

The Chinese government sees the octogenarian leader as a separatist who seeks independence for Tibet, where more than six million Tibetans live. In his absence, Beijing has tried to bring elements of the Tibetan religious institution under state control. It has also worked to erase Tibetan culture in order to absorb the people into one nation united around the Communist Party.

中国政府把年近90岁的达赖喇嘛视为寻求西藏独立的分裂分子。西藏有六百多万藏人。达赖喇嘛出走后，中国政府已试图将西藏宗教制度的一些元素置于政府控制之下。为了把藏人同化到一个团结在中共领导下的国家里，中国政府一直在努力消除西藏文化。

There are clear signs that Beijing could dispute the selection of the next Dalai Lama. When the 10th Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second-highest spiritual figure, died in 1989, the Dalai Lama named the 5-year-old son of a herder as the successor. The boy and his family were kidnapped by China, and the boy — who has not been seen since — was replaced with a monk chosen by Beijing.

已有明确的迹象显示，中国政府会对下一任达赖喇嘛的选择提出异议。1989年，西藏的第二大精神领袖、第十世班禅喇嘛圆寂后，达赖喇嘛认定的继任者是一个牧民的儿子，这位继任者当时五岁。这名男童和他的家人被中国政府绑架，至今下落不明，中国政府用自己挑选的僧人取代了达赖喇嘛认定的男童。

出席会议的僧侣和高级喇嘛，这个会议是达赖喇嘛90岁生日庆祝活动的一部分。

Traditionally, the search for a new Dalai Lama begins only after the current one dies. Tibetan Buddhist leaders say they follow ancient customs of parsing mystical visions, clues left by the previous Dalai Lama and astrology to help narrow their search. In the past, search committees would travel around Tibet testing candidates to see if they showed any traits that could be deemed especially holy.

根据藏传佛教传统，寻找达赖喇嘛转世灵童的工作，只有在现任圆寂后才能开始。藏传佛教的领袖们说，他们按照古老的习俗解读神谕、前世达赖喇嘛留下的线索以及占星术缩小寻访范围。过去，寻访委员会的成员们会在西藏各地考察候选人，看他们是否展示任何可能被视为尤其神圣的特征。

This process can take years. Eventually, a child is deemed to be the previous Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. Another decade or more can pass while the child is educated and prepared for the role when he reaches maturity.

寻访过程可能需要几年时间。最终，一个小孩会被认定为前世达赖喇嘛的转世灵童。这个孩子接受教育，为成年后担任的职位做准备，还再需要十年甚至更长的时间。

The fear that China will exploit that gap has shaped the Dalai Lama’s strategy ever since he and tens of thousands of his followers went into exile.

自从达赖喇嘛和他的数万名追随者流亡海外后，一个担忧一直影响着他的策略，那就是中国可能会利用寻找和培养继承者所需的时间。

In 2011, the Dalai Lama completed a process of gradually relinquishing his political leadership role in the Tibetan exile government, a decision intended to strengthen the democratic structure of the Tibetan movement. Since then, Tibetan refugees scattered around the world have elected their political leader through a direct vote.

2011年，达赖喇嘛逐渐卸去了他在西藏流亡政府担任的政治领导职务，做出这个决定的目的是加强西藏流亡政府的民主结构。那之后，分散在世界各地的西藏难民通过直接投票来选出他们的政治领袖。

Lobsang Tenzin, the second-most-senior leader of the trust that will oversee reincarnation matters, who is known by his religious title of Samdhong Rinpoche, said the Dalai Lama had weighed the future of the institution for decades but over time found that Tibetan people favored preserving it.

负责寻找、认证转世神童的信托基金的二号负责人、法号桑东仁波切的洛桑丹增说，达赖喇嘛几十年来一直在考虑转世制度的未来，但随着时间的推移，他发现西藏人民倾向于保留这个制度。

Analysts said that was consistent with the image the Dalai Lama has cultivated as a democrat who seeks consultation. While the approach may be his nature, it also makes a clear contrast with authoritarian China, they said.

分析人士表示，这与达赖喇嘛一直以来塑造的形象是一致的——一位重视协商和共识的民主领袖。他们说，虽然寻求协商也许是他的天性，但这种做法也与威权中国形成鲜明对比。

“Today’s message,” Samdhong Rinpoche said at a news conference in Dharamsala, “is that the Dalai Lama institution will continue — that after the 14th Dalai Lama, there will be a 15th Dalai Lama, there will be a 16th Dalai Lama.”

桑东仁波切在达兰萨拉的新闻发布会上说：“今天的信息是，达赖喇嘛的转世制度将继续延续下去：第十四世达赖喇嘛之后，还会有第十五世达赖喇嘛，也会有第十六世达赖喇嘛。”

He did not say how the Dalai Lama planned to shield the reincarnation process from Chinese interference. He also declined to say whether the Dalai Lama’s statement emphasizing the traditional process of reincarnation now ruled out his earlier suggestions about breaking with precedents.

桑东仁波切没有说达赖喇嘛打算如何保护转世程序不受中国的干预，也拒绝说达赖喇嘛强调传统转世程序的声明是否意味着否定了他以前有关打破先例的建议。

“When the time comes, he will give instructions,” Samdhong Rinpoche said, referring to reincarnation.

“他将在适当的时候给出指示，”桑东仁波切在谈到转世问题时说。

桑东仁波切（左）是负责寻找转世灵童的信托基金的二号领导人，图为他和西藏流亡政府政治领导人边巴次仁在周三会议后举行记者会。

Among Tibetans in Dharamsala, there was little surprise over the Dalai Lama’s announced position.

达兰萨拉的藏人对达赖喇嘛宣布的立场并不感到意外。

Tenzin Thupten, 51, a monk who left Tibet in the 1980s, said the Dalai Lama had been consistent about why the Chinese Communist Party had no right to influence a decision over his reincarnation.

51岁的僧人丹增图登是上世纪80年代离开西藏的。他说，达赖喇嘛在中共为什么无权干涉转世决定上的立场是一致的。

“If they don’t believe in God, in religion, who will believe their choice?” he said.

“如果他们不信神，没有宗教信仰，谁会相信他们的选择呢？”他问道。

Tenzin Woeser, 24, and Tenzin Chime, 20, siblings who were born in Dharamsala and migrated to New York as children, were on their first trip back and had stopped by the Dalai Lama temple.

24岁的丹增唯色和20岁的丹增奇美是兄妹，他们出生在达兰萨拉，幼时随家人移民纽约。这是他们第一次回达兰萨拉，顺路来看看达赖喇嘛的寺庙。

“There is a major consensus in the diaspora that the next Dalai Lama will be from outside China,” Tenzin Woeser said. The Dalai Lama himself has said that his successor will be someone born in a free country.

“海外藏人中有一个主要的共识，那就是下一任达赖喇嘛将来自中国以外的地方，”丹增唯色说。达赖喇嘛本人也曾说，他的继任者将出生在一个自由国家。

He did not repeat that principle in his address on Wednesday. Mr. Barnett, the analyst, said that appeared to give the Dalai Lama some room for last-ditch negotiations with China.

他在周三的讲话中没有重申这个原则。分析人士巴内特说，这似乎给达赖喇嘛留下了与中国进行最后谈判的空间。

Mr. Barnett said that moderates within the Chinese system may think that “it is not really a good idea if we haven’t got a settlement with him before he dies.”

巴内特说，中国体制内的温和派人士可能​​会觉得，“如果没有在他去世前达成协议，恐非明智之举。”

Millions of Tibetans have been deprived of seeing their spiritual leader for over half a century, and the prospect that he could die in exile poses challenges for the Chinese authorities that they could struggle to contain.

数百万藏人已有半个多世纪被剥夺了看到他们精神领袖的机会，如果达赖喇嘛在流亡中去世，可能给中国当局带来难以控制的挑战。

The political leader of the exiled Tibetan administration, Penpa Tsering, has acknowledged the existence of back-channel talks, but has cautioned against finding too much hope in them.

西藏流亡政府的政治领导人边巴次仁承认了谈判在通过秘密渠道进行，但也警告，不要对谈判抱太大希望。

Mr. Barnett said that Chinese officials’ position on reincarnation was once more moderate, in which they “only required a right to confirm a choice made” by senior Tibetan monks. But they took a more hard-line turn in the 1990s.

巴内特说，中国官员曾在转世问题上持比较温和的立场，他们对西藏高级僧侣选出来的灵童“只要求有认定权”。但他们在20世纪90年代转向了更强硬的立场。

If they went back to that kind of moderate approach, it could create a lot of room for talks, he said.

如果他们愿意回到以前的温和立场，那将会给谈判制造很大的空间，巴内特说。

“If there was political will from China, it is not that hard,” he said.

“如果中国有政治意愿的话，谈判不会很难，”他说。