In his first term, President Trump forced companies to kick their dependence on China. Now he is pressing countries to squeeze China out of their supply chains.

特朗普总统在他的第一个任期里曾强迫企业戒除对中国的依赖。现在，他正在向世界各国施压，把中国从它们的供应链中挤出去。

A preliminary trade pact between Vietnam and the United States announced on Wednesday is the most significant step so far toward that goal. Although the details are sparse, Vietnamese exports to the United States will face a 20 percent tariff, less than a much higher rate that Mr. Trump had threatened.

越南与美国周三宣布达成初步贸易协议，这是向这个目标迈出的迄今为止最重要的一步。虽然公布的细节不多，但有一点已明确：越南对美国的出口将面临20%的关税，远低于特朗普此前威胁施加的税率。

But notably, the deal would put a 40 percent tariff on any export from Vietnam classified as a transshipment, or goods that originated in another country and were merely passed through Vietnam.

协议中值得注意的一点是，将对来自越南、被归类为转口贸易的出口商品征收40%的关税，这些商品原产于另一国家，只是经越南转运。

The penalty aims at China, which has used Vietnam and neighboring countries to circumvent American tariffs on its goods. And it could become a feature of U.S. trade deals with other Southeast Asian governments as they try to avert sky-high tariffs that take effect on Wednesday.

这项惩罚性措施针对的是中国，中国一直在利用越南和其他邻国来规避美国对中国商品征收的关税。而且，随着其他东南亚国家政府正试图避免下周三生效的高额关税，这种条款可能会成为美国与这些国家达成的贸易协定中的一个特点。

Mr. Trump’s trade negotiators are pushing Vietnam’s export oriented neighbors like Indonesia to reduce how much Chinese content is in their supply chains. They are asking the government of Thailand to screen incoming foreign investment, hoping to stop Chinese businesses from moving into the country. They are even pressuring some countries to consider export controls of technology like semiconductors.

特朗普的贸易谈判代表们正在推动越南的出口导向型邻国（如印度尼西亚）减少供应链中的中国产品含量。他们要求泰国政府审查外来投资，希望阻止中国企业进入该国。他们甚至向一些国家施压，要求它们考虑对半导体等技术采取出口管制措施。

“The Trump administration is saying, ‘We need to see strategic decoupling if you are going to be a trade partner with the U.S.,’” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm. “The question is, will countries agree to that?”

“特朗普政府正在说，‘如果你们想在将来继续当美国的贸易伙伴的话，我们需要看到战略性的脱钩。’”地缘政治咨询公司APAC Advisors的首席执行官史蒂夫·奥肯说。“问题是，世界各国同意这样做吗？”

The U.S. efforts to sequester China heightens the vulnerabilities faced by countries in Southeast Asia, a strategically important region for Beijing and already on the frontline of China’s domination of global trade and manufacturing. On Thursday, China’s commerce ministry said it was “conducting an assessment” of the U.S.-Vietnam agreement, adding that it firmly opposed any deal that came “at the expense of China’s interest” and would “take countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

美国孤立中国的努力加剧了东南亚国家面临的脆弱性。这个对北京具有重要战略意义的地区本就处于中国主导全球贸易与制造业的前沿。中国商务部周四表示正在对美国与越南达成的贸易协议“开展评估”，还表示，中国坚决反对任何国家“以牺牲中方利益为手段达成交易，如果出现这种情况，中方将坚决予以反制，维护自身正当权益”。

The trade terms that the United States and Vietnam have so far agreed to will also hinge on how they are defined — for example, how much Chinese inputs will be allowed in Vietnamese exports, and how they will be enforced.

美国与越南目前已达成的贸易条款最终效力取决于条款的界定标准，例如越南的出口产品中允许含有的中国原材料比例上限，以及具体的执行机制。

Vietnam had everything to lose going into trade talks with the United States. Mr. Trump threatened the country with an import tax of 46 percent on its goods, sending shock waves through industries like footwear, garment and electronics that have come to depend on the country as an alternative to China.

越南在与美国进行贸易谈判之初面临着损失惨重的可能。特朗普曾威胁对越南商品征收46%的关税，令鞋类、服装和电子等将越南作为中国替代方案的行业大为震惊。

越南的一家服装厂。越南向美国出口的产品将面临20%的关税，低于特朗普总统曾威胁征收的税率。

The uncertainty caused by Mr. Trump’s threat of tariffs was weighing on Vietnamese businesses.

特朗普的关税威胁带来的不确定性给越南企业造成压力。

A 20 percent tariff was not anyone’s best-case scenario, said Tran Quang, an executive at a home fragrance company that exports nearly all of its products to the United States. “But it is not so bad,” he said.

20%的关税不是所有人都想看到的最佳方案，家用香氛公司的高管陈光（音）说，这家公司的几乎所有产品都出口美国。“但也不算太糟，”他说。

He added that he supports the steeper duty on transshipment because it could help local Vietnamese businesses facing unfair competition from Chinese companies that have invested in Vietnam to escape tariffs.

他同时表示，支持对转运产品征收更高的关税，因为那会有助于越南的本土企业，它们面临着为规避美国关税来越南投资的中国企业的不公平竞争。

“There are a lot of small Chinese guys who come to Vietnam just to relabel their products before exporting to the U.S.,” he said.

“有很多中国小企业，它们来越南，只是为了给产品换个标签，然后将其出口到美国，”他说。

Trade and investment from Chinese companies has helped bolster economic growth in Vietnam and the region, but Southeast Asia is struggling to beat back the torrent of goods from China that are putting domestic companies out of business. In recent years, with China’s economy threatened by a real estate crisis, the government has heavily subsidized factories leading to a surge in Chinese exports around the world.

虽然来自中资企业的贸易和投资助推了越南及周边地区的经济增长，但东南亚地区也在努力抵挡来自中国的商品洪流，一些本土企业已在洪流中倒下。近年来，由于中国的经济增长受到房地产危机的威胁，政府通过重金补贴制造业导致出口产品涌向世界各地。

But limitations on China’s trade in the region risk setting off chain reactions that could damage Southeast Asian countries.

但对中国在东南亚地区的贸易进行限制可能会引发损害东南亚国家利益的连锁反应。

The lack of information so far released about the Vietnam deal make it impossible to fully gauge its impact, experts said. Transshipment could refer to products that originate in China. It could also include things that are made in Vietnam but have a certain percentage of Chinese parts.

专家们说，目前越美贸易协议的细节尚不明确，因此无法对其影响进行全面评估。转运产品可能指的是原产于中国的产品，也可能包括在越南制造但含有一定比例中国零部件的产品。

But if the limits on Chinese components end up being strict, American companies could move their production out of Vietnam, said Matt Priest, chief executive of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a trade group.

但如果最终的结果是严格限制使用来自中国的零部件的话，美国公司会将生产迁出越南，贸易团体美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会的首席执行官马特·普里斯特说。

河内老城区的一个鞋店。特朗普威胁对越南商品征收46%的关税，这给越南的鞋类、服装和电子等行业带来了冲击。

“If it’s too onerous or difficult to comply, companies won’t use the opportunity to grow sourcing in Vietnam,” he said. “They may even head back to China if it’s price competitive.”

“如果协议过于繁琐或难以遵守，企业不会把其作为扩大在越南采购的机会，”他说。“它们甚至也许会回到中国，如果那里的价格更有竞争力的话。”

The pact with Vietnam also leaves uncertainty for businesses as they wait to see what kind of tariffs and restrictions on China other Southeast Asian countries agree to in potential deals with the Trump administration.

与越南达成协议也给企业带来了不确定性，因为它们正在观望其他东南亚国家与特朗普政府达成的潜在协议中会有什么样的关税，以及针对中国的限制措施。

The restrictions on the amount of Chinese content in exported products also places a burden on local customs officials who have never been asked to scrutinize exports so closely, raising questions about how effective they will be. Some countries have even discussed setting up entirely different supply chains for the United States.

对出口产品中包含的中国成分进行量化限制也给当地的海关关员带来负担，他们以前从未被要求对出口商品进行如此严格的溯源审查，让人对监管效能存疑。一些国家甚至考虑为出口美国的产品建立完全不同的供应链。

Washington also risks pushing some countries that are deeply integrated with China’s economy into Beijing’s arms.

华盛顿方面还有可能把一些与中国经济深度融合的国家推向北京的怀抱。

Many Asian governments are concerned about how China could respond to deals that seek to isolate Chinese firms. Beijing has shown that it is willing to take increasingly aggressive retaliatory measures like boycotting products and restricting critical minerals that its neighbors depend on. It has also turned to ratcheting up tensions in the South China Sea, where it has made military claims to much of the waterway.

许多亚洲国家政府担心中国会对试图孤立中国企业的贸易协议如何反应。中国政府已展示出采取越来越富攻击性反制措施的意愿，例如抵制邻国产品，限制向邻国出口其依赖的关键矿产。中国政府还采取了加剧南中国海紧张局势的做法，并使用军事手段加强了对南中国海大部分水域的领土主张。

“Politically we have to tread carefully between the two superpowers,” said Pavida Pananond, professor of International Business at Thammasat University in Thailand. “China is a very important economic power, not just as an importer of goods but a source of investment and destination for exports.”

“从政治的角度来看，我们需要在这两个超级大国之间谨慎行事，”泰国法政大学国际商务学教授帕维达·帕南德说。“中国是一个非常重要的经济大国，它不仅是进口商品来源地，也是投资来源地和出口商品目的地。”

Southeast Asian countries have taken their own steps to tighten monitoring and enforcement of transshipment in recent weeks, providing some insight into what they might agree to in their own trade pacts with Washington.

东南亚国家已在最近几周纷纷采取措施，加强对转运产品的监督执法，为它们与美国达成的贸易协议中可能有什么样的条款提供了一些线索。

In Thailand, where Mr. Trump has threatened 36 percent tariffs, the government has estimated that its actions to closely scrutinize exports for transshipment could reduce its exports to the United States by $15 billion, equivalent to one third of Thailand’s trade surplus with Washington last year. It has also promised to look more closely at foreign investments in areas like electric vehicles where Chinese companies have invested a lot of money to bring their own suppliers into Thailand.

特朗普威胁要对泰国产品征收36%的关税。泰国政府估计，严格审查转运出口可能导致泰国对美国的出口额减少150亿美元，相当于去年泰国与美国贸易顺差的三分之一。泰国已承诺对电动汽车等行业的外国投资进行更严格的审查，中国企业为了将自己的供应商带到泰国，已在这些行业投入巨资。

曼谷车展上的比亚迪。

Authorities in Malaysia and Indonesia have tightened export rules to ensure that shipments to the United States are accurately documented. Both countries also centralized the authority to issue of certificates for exports.

马来西亚和印度尼西亚的政府已加强了出口管理，以确保出口美国的货物有准确的文件记录。这两个国家还集中了出口许可证的签发权。

Even before any trade deals are hammered out, the Trump administration is already reshaping how the region views China.

甚至在敲定任何贸易协议之前，特朗普政府已在改变东南亚地区对中国的看法。

“The idea is to squeeze China out,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, an organization that focuses on trade.

“目的是把中国挤出去，”欣里奇基金会的贸易政策负责人黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说，该组织专门研究贸易问题。

But for countries like Vietnam, going along with what the United States is geopolitically risky.

但对越南等国家来说，顺从美国的要求有地缘政治危险。

“It’s a gamble all around to see how the U.S., China and companies in your country will respond,” Ms. Elms said.

“这是一场多方面的赌博，看美国、中国，以及其他国家的企业将如何响应，”埃尔姆斯说。