As one of the largest holders of U.S. debt for the last two decades, China has not shied away from lecturing the United States about its financial behavior.

作为过去20年美国债务的最大持有国之一，中国从不回避对美国财政行为的批评。

Like a parent scolding a child for racking up credit card bills, China needled Washington to protect its assets during the 2013 debt ceiling impasse and blamed Americans for setting off the 2008 global financial crisis with their profligate spending.

就像父母训斥孩子透支信用卡一样，中国在2013年美国债务上限僵局期间向华盛顿施压，要求其保护中国资产；2008年全球金融危机后，中国更是直指美国人的挥霍无度是罪魁祸首。

But as American lawmakers debated, and ultimately passed, a giant domestic bill championed by President Trump that is projected to add more than $3 trillion to the federal debt by 2034, China has remained largely silent despite the potential long-term risk it poses to its holdings.

但当美国国会议员就一项由特朗普总统支持、预计到2034年将使联邦债务激增逾3万亿美元的庞大国内法案进行辩论并最终通过时，中国却基本上不置一词——尽管该法案可能对中国持有的美国资产构成长期风险。

China’s main concerns about its holdings has long been over the dollar’s value and whether the United States will fail to pay its obligations, said Yasheng Huang, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

麻省理工学院的经济学家黄亚生表示，中国对持有美债的主要担忧长期以来一直集中在美元的价值，以及美国是否会违约这两个层面。

“These two concerns are far more material today,” he said. “The dollar has already depreciated, dragging down the Chinese holdings. In terms of the other concern, I personally do not trust this administration to uphold rule of law and debt obligations.”

“这两个担忧如今都更加现实，”他说。“美元持续贬值已经拖累中国持债价值。至于另一个担忧，我个人不信任本届政府会恪守法治原则与债务义务。”

In covering the debate, Chinese state media have emphasized how divisive the bill has been and the seeming futility of the American democratic process to reflect popular will. Reports described the debates as a “political circus,” while Chinese pundits said the vote highlighted “increasing polarization” in the United States.

中国官方媒体在报道国会辩论时强调了该法案的争议性，以及美国民主制度在体现民意方面似乎失效。报道将辩论描述为一场“政治马戏”，中国的评论人士则称投票突显了美国“日益加剧的两极分化”。

But Chinese officials have not yet publicly criticized the Trump administration and could be focused on other considerations.

但中国官员尚未公开批评特朗普政府，沉默背后可能存在其他考量。

Averting a Trade War Is a Priority

避免贸易战是优先事项

China probably sees no reason to antagonize Mr. Trump by publicly criticizing his bill when it is in a shaky truce with his administration in a trade war that had earlier seen both sides impose sky-high tariffs on each other’s goods.

在双方贸易战的脆弱休战状态下，中国可能认为没有必要通过公开批评该法案来激怒特朗普，此前双方曾互征高额关税。

The two sides have agreed to lift certain countermeasures, and keep working toward a deal. Momentum may even be building toward a meeting between Mr. Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

双方已同意取消部分对抗性措施，并继续朝达成协议努力。双方甚至可能正在为特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平的会晤创造条件。

Beijing, which is trying to revive economic growth, can ill afford an extended trade war. Concerns over its treasury holdings are not top of mind. More pressing are the tariffs and efforts by the Trump administration to persuade other countries to restrict their own trade with China.

北京正试图重振经济增长，难以承受一场旷日持久的贸易战。相比之下，国债持有问题并不是当务之急。更紧迫的是关税问题，以及特朗普政府试图说服其他国家限制对华贸易的努力。

“China is still trying to maintain a fragile trade truce with the United States,” said Joe Mazur, an analyst at Trivium, a research firm. “Criticizing Trump’s signature piece of legislation could anger him and torpedo recent diplomatic understandings.”

“中国仍在努力维持与美国之间脆弱的贸易停火，”研究公司Trivium的分析师乔·马祖尔表示。“批评特朗普的标志性立法可能会激怒他，破坏近期达成的外交共识。”

Why Interrupt Your Enemy’s Mistake?

为什么要阻止敌人犯错呢？

From China’s perspective, rather than fuel American economic growth, the measure could push Washington closer to a fiscal cliff and undermine its ability to compete with Beijing.

从中国的角度来看，该法案非但不会推动美国经济增长，还可能把华盛顿推向财政悬崖，削弱其与北京竞争的能力。

“The chances of Trump’s success are at best uncertain,” said Shen Dingli, a scholar of international relations in Shanghai. Instead, the measure “could indirectly help make China great again” by weakening the United States, he said.

“特朗普成功的几率充其量也只能说是不确定，”上海的国际关系学者沈丁立表示。他还表示，该法案通过削弱美国实力，“可能会间接帮助中国再次强大”。

Crises and chaos in the United States feed into one of Mr. Xi’s primary assertions about the state of the world, that the East is rising and the West is declining. China has highlighted the Trump administration’s alienation of U.S. allies and partners and disregard for global norms.

美国的危机与混乱正好印证了习近平对当前世界局势的核心判断——东升西降。中国强调特朗普政府疏远美国盟友和伙伴，并无视全球规范。

On social media, one popular hashtag read: “Big, Beautiful Bill will make 17 million people lose their health insurance.” Internet commenters also cheered on Elon Musk, who has described the bill as “insane.”

在社交媒体上，一个热门标签写道：“大而美法案将让1700万人失去医保”。网民们也为埃隆·马斯克的言论欢呼，他称该法案“疯狂”。

In contrast, Chinese analysts said, China has raised its debt levels, in part, to build infrastructure and to loan money to developing countries — spending that is geared toward expanding China’s influence.

相比之下，中国分析人士表示，中国提高债务水平部分是用于建设基础设施和向发展中国家贷款——这些支出旨在扩大中国的影响力。

China is also struggling with a growing mountain of debt because of borrowing by local governments, their investment vehicles and real estate developers.

中国同样也在应对不断增长的债务问题，这主要来自地方政府、融资平台以及房地产开发商的借贷。

Yao Yang, an economist at Peking University, was skeptical that China stood to gain from any disruption caused by Mr. Trump’s bill. He said the United States could continue to borrow for years to come as long as it remained the world’s biggest consumer market.

北京大学的经济学家姚洋对中国是否会因特朗普的法案带来的混乱而受益表示怀疑。他表示，只要美国仍是世界上最大的消费市场，就可以继续借贷多年。

“America’s financial dominance can’t be easily overturned, and the same goes for the dollar’s supremacy,” he said.

“美国的金融霸主地位也不是随意就可以被替代的。那连带的美元的霸主地位，也不是随意可以替代掉，”他说。

China Is Less Exposed to U.S. Debt

中国受美国债务的影响较小

Beijing has long complained that Washington has printed more money to serve its domestic needs without considering how it devalues the dollar, and, by extension, foreign countries’ holdings of U.S. assets.

北京长期诟病华盛顿滥发货币满足国内需求，却无视美元贬值，以及因此带来的海外持有美债资产的缩水。

But it has also been gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, from a peak of $1.3 trillion more than a decade ago, to about $750 billion now, investing instead in other assets like gold.

但中国也在逐步减持美债——从十多年前1.3万亿美元的峰值降至目前的约7500亿美元，转而投资于黄金等其他资产。

China is also invested in weakening what it calls the U.S. dollar’s hegemony as the world’s leading currency for trade.

中国也致力于削弱其所谓的“美元霸权”，即美元作为世界主要贸易货币的地位。

That power fuels the world’s dependency on American consumers, making major exporting nations like China “more submissive” to the United States because of the threats of tariffs, said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

位于北京的全球化智库理事长王辉耀表示，美元的这一地位加剧了世界对美国消费者的依赖，使得中国这样的主要出口国在面对关税威胁时”更为被动”。

“The United States is using the greenback and its large deficit financing to sustain its global power,” he said.

“美国正在利用美元和巨额赤字融资来维持其全球霸权，”他说。