2025年8月7日
President Trump all but declared economic war against India on Wednesday, threatening to add a 25 percent punitive tariff for India’s purchases of Russian oil on top of a 25 percent tariff he announced last week. In his second term, Mr. Trump had been expected to marshal India as a friendly counterweight to the challenge posed by China.
周三,特朗普总统几乎相当于向印度进行了宣战,他威胁称,除了上周宣布的25%关税外,还要对印度购买的俄罗斯石油额外加征25%的惩罚性关税。外界原本预期特朗普会在第二任期内拉拢印度,并将其作为制衡中国挑战的友好力量。
But added together, the 50 percent tariff paints India as a political enemy, putting it in the company of Brazil, whose leftist president sparred with Mr. Trump when the country was threatened with a similarly punishing tariff rate. The crisis between India and the United States suddenly looks much bigger than the terms of trade.
但结合在一起,这50%的关税将印度置于美国政治敌人的行列,让其加入了巴西的行列——巴西的左翼总统曾因该国受到类似惩罚性关税威胁而与特朗普发生争执。美印之间的危机突然变得远远超出了贸易范畴。
The onslaught against India started on July 30, when Mr. Trump declared that India’s economy was “dead.” Until that point, his administration had been angling to reduce India’s trade barriers, but said nothing about its two years of buying Russian oil at a wartime discount.
对印度的攻击始于7月30日,当天特朗普宣称印度经济“已经死了”。在此之前,他的政府一直在致力于降低印度的贸易壁垒,却从未公开批评印度两年来以战时折扣价购买俄罗斯石油一事。
Before the shock of Mr. Trump’s announcement in April of sweeping global tariffs, the world’s two largest democracies seemed to be enjoying the friendship that its leaders had forged.
在今年4月特朗普宣布惊人的大规模全球关税之前,这两个世界上最大的民主国家似乎还沉浸在两国领导人建立起来的友好关系中。
At a meeting with Mr. Trump at the White House in February, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, described India’s intention to become one of the world’s most advanced economies, with the United States as a partner.
今年2月,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在白宫与特朗普会面时表示,印度有意成为世界上最发达的经济体之一,并将美国视为合作伙伴。
“In the language of America, it’s ‘Make India Great Again’ — MIGA,” he said. “When America and India work together, this MAGA plus MIGA becomes a ‘mega partnership for prosperity.’” Mr. Trump smiled.
“用美国的话说,这就是‘让印度再次伟大’——简称MIGA,”他说。“当美国和印度携手合作,MAGA(让美国再次伟大)加MIGA,就成了‘超级繁荣伙伴’。”特朗普听了露出笑容。
Left unmentioned but lingering just out of sight was China, the only country with a population to rival India’s and an economy to stand in its way. China is also far and away America’s most important economic competitor. Together, the United States and India were seen as ready to use each other to try to restrain China’s might.
虽然没有明说,但显然绕不开的话题是中国——唯一一个人口能与印度抗衡、经济能对印度构成阻碍的国家。中国也是美国迄今为止最重要的经济竞争对手。外界曾认为,美印两国已准备好相互利用,以试图遏制中国的实力。
Total trade between the United States and India was roughly $130 billion last year. India’s top exports to America include pharmaceuticals, auto parts, electrical goods and gemstones.
去年,美印双边贸易总额约为1300亿美元。印度对美主要出口产品包括药品、汽车零部件、电器产品和宝石。
Mr. Modi’s confidence in enlisting the United States in its economic rise was well grounded. U.S. administrations have been courting India as a geopolitical ally for more than a quarter century, since India announced its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, it said, to China.
莫迪对争取美国支持印度经济崛起抱有信心,这是有充分理由的。自印度宣布其核武库作为对中国的威慑手段以来,25年多的时间里,美国政府一直在拉拢印度作为地缘政治盟友。
And American dollars have poured into India as China’s economy has matured and become more assertive. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine were the catalysts for a surge in investment. Multinational companies grew excited about doing business in India, to reduce the risk of exposure to China, as it girds for a trade war with the United States and possibly a real war with Taiwan. Manufacturing and professional services led the way.
随着中国经济逐渐成熟且愈发强硬,大量美元涌入了印度。新冠疫情和乌克兰战争成为了投资激增的催化剂。跨国公司对在印度开展业务表现出极大兴趣,以减少对中国市场的依赖风险,因为中国正准备与美国展开贸易战,还有可能跟台湾真的打起来。制造业和专业服务行业成为这一趋势的主力。
跨国公司曾寄望于印度的未来增长,因为印度拥有年轻的人口结构和强大的政治稳定性。
Wall Street followed, banking on the future growth of India, with its relatively young population and enviable political stability.
华尔街也紧随其后,押注印度未来的增长潜力——印度人口结构相对年轻,政治稳定性也令人羡慕。
But over the past week, Mr. Trump’s escalating attacks on India have suddenly undermined this joint venture and sent reverberations throughout the business worlds of both countries. On Wednesday, an executive order by Mr. Trump said that India would face an extra 25 percent tariff starting on Aug. 27 if it continued to buy oil from Russia. That levy on Indian goods imported into the United States would come on top of a 25 percent tariff that Mr. Trump announced last week, which is set to take effect on Thursday and on its own ranks as one of the highest rates in Asia.
但在过去一周,特朗普对印度不断升级的攻击突然破坏了这一联合计划,并在两国商界引发震动。周三,特朗普发布行政命令称,如果印度继续从俄罗斯购买石油,将从8月27日起对其额外加征25%的关税。这一针对印度输美商品的关税将叠加上周特朗普宣布的25%关税,后者将于周四生效,本身已是亚洲国家中最严厉的关税之一。
India’s foreign ministry responded to Mr. Trump’s executive order on Wednesday, reiterating that the country’s motives for importing oil from Russia were tied to the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people. It was “extremely unfortunate that the U.S. should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest,” the ministry’s statement said. Indian officials signaled over the weekend that they did not intend to stop buying Russian oil.
印度外交部周三对特朗普的行政命令作出回应,重申印度从俄罗斯进口石油是为了满足14亿人口的能源需求。外交部在声明中表示:“美国决定因印度做出与多国出于本国利益同样的行为而加征关税,这是极其令人遗憾的。”印度官员周末暗示,他们不打算停止购买俄罗斯石油。
With his tariff threats, Mr. Trump has thrown months of trade talks between both countries into question. Just a couple weeks ago, negotiators and business leaders sounded upbeat. Even with some difficult details to be settled, the expectation was that India and the United States mean too much to each other to let a global trade war tear them apart.
特朗普的关税威胁让两国数月来的贸易谈判陷入了不确定之中。就在几周前,谈判代表和商界领袖还显得颇为乐观。尽管还有一些棘手的细节有待解决,但人们曾认为,美印对彼此而言都太过重要,不会让一场全球贸易战将两国撕裂。
Companies like Apple have poured billions into India, which in 2023 eclipsed China in population, with eyes on India’s domestic market and its capacity to export manufactured goods to the United States and elsewhere. Those investments were supposed to be better than profitable; they were supposed to reduce or eliminate everyone’s dependence on China to be the factory of the world.
苹果等公司已向印度投入数十亿美元。印度在2023年人口数量超过中国,这些公司既看重印度的国内市场,也看好它向美国及其他地区出口制成品的能力。这些投资被认为不仅能够带来可观利润,还应当能够减轻甚至消除各国对中国作为世界工厂的依赖。
The 25 percent tariff alone, already much higher than Asian competitors’ like Vietnam, Japan and South Korea, would reduce the viability of such a trade. A 50 percent tariff would kill it.
25%的关税已远高于越南、日本和韩国等亚洲竞争对手,严重削弱相关贸易的可行性。而50%的关税则会彻底将其扼杀。
富士康正在班加罗尔附近建造的一座宿舍楼,这里将住进组装iPhone的工人。像苹果这样的公司已经向印度投入了数十亿美元。
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump took aim at two other industries that were explicitly being developed in India as an alternative to China.
周二,特朗普又瞄准了印度两个作为中国替代选项正在快速发展的产业。
Pharmaceuticals, where India has world-beating advantages and sells more than $10 billion a year to the United States, is to face a special tariff that could eventually reach 250 percent, Mr. Trump said, to be announced “within a week or so.” Eli Lilly, as one of many American corporations that have invested in India, for example, recently invested $3 billion in an Indian factory. India makes nearly 40 percent of the generic drugs bought in the United States.
印度在制药领域拥有世界级的优势,每年对美销售额超过100亿美元。特朗普表示,将在“一周左右”宣布对该行业加征一项最终可能高达250%的特别关税。例如,礼来公司作为众多在印度投资的美国企业之一,最近在印度一家工厂投资了30亿美元。印度生产的仿制药占美国仿制药采购量的近40%。
Mr. Trump’s plan is to bring back manufacturing to the United States, which is also the reason he has given for imposing another special tariff on semiconductors. Unfortunately for Indian and American companies, and some in East Asia too, everyone has been spending to make India competitive in this sector. Micron, based in Idaho, has taken advantage of Indian government subsidies to put $2.5 billion into building chip-making facilities in Mr. Modi’s home state of Gujarat.
特朗普的计划是将制造业带回美国,这也是他对半导体加征另一项特别关税的理由。但对印美企业以及一些东亚企业而言,不幸的是,各方都一直在投入资金,帮助印度在该领域崛起。总部位于爱达荷州的美光公司利用印度政府的补贴,在莫迪的家乡古吉拉特邦投入25亿美元建设芯片厂。
High finance has also followed bricks-and-mortar businesses. The Indian stock market has been on a bull run, finding enthusiastic new buyers among middle-class Indians. That made foreign investors eager for private deals. Stephen Schwarzman, the chief executive of Blackstone, a New York investment firm, said this year that it was putting $11 billion into Indian data centers to fuel the global artificial intelligence boom.
高端金融也紧随实体企业的脚步。印度股市一直处于牛市,吸引了众多印度中产阶级投身股市,也激起外国投资者对私募交易的浓厚兴趣。纽约投资公司黑石集团的首席执行官斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼今年表示,将向印度的数据中心投入110亿美元,以推动全球人工智能热潮。
Some parts of the U.S.-Indian equation look relatively secure. The trade in goods between the two countries has never been as important to their economic relationship as their trade in services, and other people-to-people exchanges. Indians are just as present in American boardrooms as American-trained Indians are in Mumbai’s corner offices.
美印关系中的某些方面看起来相对稳固。两国之间的商品贸易,从未像服务贸易以及其他人文交流那样,对双方的经济关系起到至关重要的作用。印度人在美国的董事会中随处可见,接受过美国教育的印度人也同样活跃在孟买的高管办公室里。
印度每年向美国出口价值超过100亿美元的药品。该行业可能很快面临一项特殊关税,最终可能达到250%。
One aspect of this exchange, the proliferation of globally integrated, high-end offices in India — first in information technology and then across the professions — has remained a bright spot. Worth $65 billion last year, it is more valuable than the total trade deficit in goods. China does not hold a candle to India’s ability as a hub for office work other countries send its way.
这种交流的一个方面是印度全球一体化高端办公领域的蓬勃发展,首先是信息技术领域,随后扩展到各个专业领域,这一直是一个亮点。去年该领域的产值为650亿美元,超过了货物贸易赤字的总额。在承接其他国家外包办公业务方面,中国远不及印度作为枢纽的实力。
As frightening as the new tariffs are for many Indian factories, most American investors who have built stakes in India are not yet fleeing.
尽管新关税让许多印度工厂感到恐慌,但大多数在印度持有股份的美国投资者尚未撤离。
They do, however, remember what happened in 2020, when India and China traded blows at their border and 24 soldiers were killed. Almost overnight, Chinese companies were forced to ditch their Indian investments at a loss.
然而,他们确实记得2020年发生的事情——当时印度和中国在边境发生冲突,导致24名士兵丧生。几乎一夜之间,中国企业被迫以亏损价格抛售在印度的投资。
A war of words and tariffs is different, of course. But Indian and American cooperation around China is no longer something that anyone can count on.
当然,口水战和关税战是不同的。但美印围绕中国展开的合作已不再是任何人可以依赖的稳定因素。