The world’s superpowers met in 1945 in the Black Sea port of Yalta to divide up Europe after the defeat of Nazi Germany. They drew lines on the map that tore apart countries, effectively delivered Eastern Europe to Soviet occupation and dismembered Poland. And none of those countries were represented or had a say.

1945年，几个超级大国在黑海港口城市雅尔塔举行会晤，商讨在纳粹德国战败后如何瓜分欧洲。他们在地图上划下的分界线撕裂了各国版图，将东欧实际交给了苏联占领，并肢解了波兰。而这些国家既没有代表出席会议，也没有获得发言权。

As President Trump prepares to meet President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Friday in Alaska, there is more talk — and anxiety — among Ukrainians and Europeans about a second Yalta. They are not scheduled to be present, and Mr. Trump has said he plans to negotiate “land swaps” with Mr. Putin over Ukrainian territory.

随着特朗普总统准备于周五在阿拉斯加会晤俄罗斯总统普京，乌克兰人和欧洲人正更多地谈起第二次“雅尔塔会议”，焦虑也日益加剧。他们未获参会邀请，而特朗普曾表示他计划与普京就乌克兰领土问题进行“土地置换”谈判。

“Yalta is a symbol of everything we fear,” said Peter Schneider, a German novelist who wrote “The Wall Jumper,” about the division of Berlin. At Yalta, the world itself was divided and “countries were handed to Stalin,” he said. “Now we see that Putin wants to reconstruct the world as it was at Yalta. For him, it begins with Ukraine, but that’s not his ending.”

“雅尔塔象征着我们所恐惧的一切，”德国小说家彼得·施耐德说道，他的《跳墙者》(The Wall Jumper)一书讲述了对柏林的分割。他表示，在雅尔塔会议上，世界被瓜分，“许多国家被拱手让给斯大林。如今，普京欲复刻雅尔塔会议瓜分世界。对他来说，乌克兰只是起点，绝非终点。"

Yalta, itself in Russian-annexed Crimea, has become a symbol for how superpowers can decide the fates of other nations and peoples. “It’s a linchpin moment, when the European world is divided in two and the fate of Europeans in the East is locked in without any possible say,” said Ivan Vejvoda, a Serb political scientist with the Institute for Human Sciences, a research institution in Vienna.

雅尔塔本身就位于俄罗斯吞并的克里米亚，它已成为超级大国如何决定其他民族和人民命运的象征。“这是一个关键时刻，欧洲被一分为二，东欧人的命运在没有任何发言权的情况下被锁定，”位于维也纳的研究机构——人文科学研究所的塞尔维亚政治学家伊万·维沃达说。

“Of course today’s world is different, but decisions are being made on behalf of third countries for whom this is an existential issue,” Mr. Vejvoda said.

“当今世界固然不同，但事关他国存亡的决策正被越俎代庖，”维沃达说。

The prospect that big powers might settle the fate of a third country that is not present is “a national trauma in most of Eastern Europe, including Estonia,” said Kadri Liik, an Estonian and Russia expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations. “That fear is always close to the surface, the fear that someone will sell us off or sell Ukraine off and that’s the start of a bigger process.”

欧洲对外关系委员会的爱沙尼亚籍俄罗斯问题专家卡德里·利克表示，这种由大国擅自决定不在场的第三国命运的可能性是“包括爱沙尼亚在内多数东欧国家的民族创伤”。“这种恐惧始终如影随形，害怕有人会出卖我们，或出卖乌克兰，而那是一个更大进程的开始。”

雅尔塔会议期间的斯大林和罗斯福。会议召开时，法国和比利时已解放，德国的战败已成定局。丘吉尔在雅尔塔会议举办地利瓦迪亚宫。

Mr. Putin’s stated aims do not end with Ukraine. As a revisionist who wants to upend the current order, he has made clear he wants NATO to end any expansion, pull its troops out of any country that joined after 1997 — including all countries that had been under Soviet occupation and became members starting in 1999 — and negotiate a new “security architecture” in Europe that recognizes the old Soviet sphere of influence. He wants to divide the United States from Europe, if he can, to weaken or destroy the trans-Atlantic relationship created after World War II.

普京的公开目标不止于乌克兰。作为一名想要颠覆现有秩序的修正主义者，他已明确要求北约停止东扩、从1997年后加入国撤军（这其中包括所有曾受苏联占领并在1999年后加入的国家），同时重新谈判欧洲的“安全架构”，以承认苏联曾经的势力范围。若可能，他还希望将美国与欧洲分裂开来，从而削弱甚至摧毁“二战”后建立的跨大西洋关系。

The Yalta meeting of the three “great powers” — Britain, the Soviet Union and the United States — took place in February 1945, after France and Belgium had been liberated and the defeat of Germany was inevitable. The summit was followed by a conference in Potsdam, Germany, in July, which reconfirmed the division of Europe into Western and Soviet spheres.

1945年2月，英苏美“三巨头”在雅尔塔举行会议。此时法国和比利时已解放，德国败局已定。同年7月，德国波茨坦会议重申了将欧洲划分为西方和苏联势力范围的安排。

Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill were both ailing and exhausted. Many in Eastern Europe came to believe that the two men had been taken in by the promises of Joseph Stalin that he would allow free elections in the countries occupied by the Red Army.

富兰克林·罗斯福和温斯顿·丘吉尔当时都疾病缠身、精疲力竭。许多东欧人开始相信，这两人被约瑟夫·斯大林的承诺所蒙蔽——他承诺苏联红军占领的国家会举行自由选举。

“Yalta has gone down in history as many things, but it became a dirty word in Eastern Europe and especially in Poland,” since a main topic of the conference was its new borders, said Serhii Plokhii, a professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard and the author of numerous books about the Cold War, including “Yalta: The Price of Peace.”

哈佛大学乌克兰史教授、著有《雅尔塔：和平的代价》(Yalta: The Price of Peace)等书的谢尔盖·普洛基指出，“雅尔塔在历史上留下了许多印记，但在东欧，尤其是在波兰，它成了一个肮脏的词，”因为这次会议的一个核心议题便是重划波兰边界。

Charles de Gaulle was also not invited to Yalta, Mr. Plokhii noted. “Here we see clear parallels between de Gaulle and Europe and Poland and Ukraine,” he said. Europe’s major powers are also left out of the Alaska summit and plan to discuss the meeting virtually on Wednesday with Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance.

普洛基强调，戴高乐当年亦未获邀参会。“我们可以清楚地看到，当年的戴高乐与今天的欧洲大国，以及当时的波兰和如今的乌克兰，在遭遇上有明显的相似之处。”欧洲主要大国也被排除在阿拉斯加峰会之外，按照计划，它们将在周三与特朗普和副总统万斯举行视频会议。

Of course, there are clear differences, Mr. Plokhii said. Stalin was troublesome but an ally, who had been instrumental in defeating the Nazis. Roosevelt and Churchill were doing what they could “to better the situation for the territories already occupied by the Red Army.”

但普洛基说，前后还是有着明显的差异。斯大林虽然是个麻烦，却是击败纳粹的关键盟友。罗斯福与丘吉尔当时也竭尽所能地“改善红军占领区的处境”。

They were not giving up territories the allies held or negotiating about the government of France, as Stalin wanted, he said. “So there were no real concessions on territories not already controlled by the Soviet Union.” And neither Washington nor London wanted to expand the war to drive out the Soviets, although Churchill later ordered contingency planning for such a conflict.

他说，他们并没有放弃盟军占领的领土，亦未如斯大林所愿就法国政府的组成举行谈判。“所以在苏联未控领土上没有做出真正的让步。”华盛顿和伦敦都不想扩大战争来驱逐苏联人，尽管丘吉尔曾下令制定驱逐苏军的应急计划。

For Timothy D. Snyder, a historian of Ukraine and the Cold War, the Alaska summit is “morally less defensible” than the one in Yalta because Mr. Putin is not an ally, as Stalin was. “Although he was ruling a terrible system and oppressing as he liberated, the Soviets had just borne the brunt of the war in Europe, so it was inevitable to discuss with them a settlement at the end of the war,” he said.

专攻乌克兰与冷战史的历史学家蒂莫西·斯奈德认为，阿拉斯加峰会在“道义正当性上远逊于”雅尔塔会议，因为普京并非斯大林那样的盟友。“尽管斯大林统治着一个可怕的体制，并在解放的同时也在实施压迫，但苏联刚在欧洲战场上承受了大量伤亡，因此在战争结束时与他们讨论战后安排是不可避免的。”

But for Mr. Snyder, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, there is a crucial difference with Yalta. It is Russia now, not Nazi Germany, that is “carrying out an unprovoked war and all its atrocities.” Russia is “not an ambiguous partner who helped end the war, but started the war.”

但对在多伦多大学蒙克全球事务与公共政策学院担任教授的斯奈德来说，阿拉斯加峰会与雅尔塔会议存在一个关键的区别。现在是俄罗斯，而不是纳粹德国，正在“发动一场无端战争并犯下诸多暴行”。它“并非终结战争的亦敌亦友的伙伴，而是战争的发起者”。

That Mr. Trump is engaging and negotiating with Mr. Putin, which former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was reluctant to do, is easily defensible because Russia is a combatant. But so is Ukraine, the critics argue, and President Volodymyr Zelensky should be there, even if Mr. Putin claims to regard him as illegitimate and Ukraine as artificial.

由于俄罗斯是参战方，特朗普与普京的接触和谈判——拜登政府曾回避此举——倒也不无道理。但批评者强调乌克兰同为参战方，泽连斯基总统理应与会——纵使普京宣称其不具合法性，并认为乌克兰是一个人为拼凑出来的国家。

2024年7月，乌克兰哈尔科夫地区遭受空袭后的景象。在阿拉斯加峰会召开前，乌克兰人和欧洲人一直担心这次会晤可能会演变成又一个雅尔塔会议。

Today, Mr. Plokhii said, Mr. Putin wants Ukraine to hand over territories not occupied by Russia. So that also raises another controversial moment in history, at Munich in 1938, when Neville Chamberlain agreed with Adolf Hitler to dismantle Czechoslovakia, which was not represented at those talks, in a vain, doomed effort to keep the peace.

普洛基表示，普京如今要求乌克兰交出尚未被俄罗斯占领的领土。这令人想起历史上另一个有争议的时刻，即1938年的慕尼黑会议，当时张伯伦为希特勒达成协议，同意肢解未参会的捷克斯洛伐克，妄想以此来维系和平，实则是注定失败的徒劳之举。

“We know Churchill and Roosevelt got some criticism over Yalta, but it was Chamberlain who became infamous,” Mr. Plokhii said.

“我们知道丘吉尔和罗斯福因雅尔塔会议而受到诟病，但论臭名昭著还得是张伯伦，”普洛基说道。

Mr. Putin’s demand for unconquered Ukrainian territory is also similar to Hitler’s demand for the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia in 1938, Mr. Snyder said. “If Ukraine is forced to concede the rest of the Donbas, it would concede defensive lines and fortifications crucial to its defense, which is what the Czechs had to do,” he said.

斯奈德指出，普京对尚未被攻占的乌克兰领土的要求同样类似希特勒在1938年对捷克斯洛伐克苏台德地区的要求。“如果乌克兰被迫放弃顿巴斯的其他地区，将丧失关键防线和防御工事，这就是当年捷克的处境，”他说。

“Hitler’s aim was to destroy Czechoslovakia,” Mr. Snyder said, “and Putin’s ultimate goal is to destroy Ukraine.”

“希特勒的目标是摧毁捷克斯洛伐克，”斯奈德说，“而普京的最终目标是摧毁乌克兰。”