President Trump is set to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Alaska this Friday. The abrupt nature of the summit and Mr. Trump’s penchant for pursuing deals are feeding questions about the potential outcome.

美国总统特朗普周五将在阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京会面。这次峰会的突然性以及特朗普追求交易的嗜好，正引发外界对可能结果的揣测。

The meeting, arranged in barely a week, will mark a significant policy change for the United States. Washington has largely treated Mr. Putin as a pariah since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread destruction for both countries. The mere fact that an American president is willing to meet is considered a diplomatic victory for the Kremlin.

短短一周内敲定的会晤标志着美国对俄政策的重大转向。自从俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰以来，美国政府已在很大程度上视普京为国际弃儿，俄乌战争已给两国造成数十万人死亡和大范围的破坏。单是美国总统愿意会面这一事实就可被克里姆林宫视为外交胜利。

On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine joined a phone call between Mr. Trump and European leaders, who said they had hammered out five principles for the negotiations. They included the idea of pursuing a cease-fire first, according to the Ukrainian president.

周三，乌克兰总统泽连斯基参加了特朗普与欧洲领导人的电话会议。欧洲领导人表示，他们已敲定了五项谈判原则。据乌克兰总统称，其中一项是首先致力于停火。

Given that the meeting will not include a representative from Ukraine, chances of a breakthrough are considered slim. Mr. Trump has said that he would call Mr. Zelensky directly after his talks with Mr. Putin, and that he considered the Alaska summit a prelude to a Putin-Zelensky meeting.

考虑到没有来自乌克兰的代表出席这次峰会，“特普会”取得重大进展的可能性很小。特朗普已表示，他将在会谈后与泽连斯基直接通话，并表示他认为这次阿拉斯加峰会是普京与泽连斯基见面的序幕。

Where is the summit happening?

峰会将在哪里举行？

Mr. Trump will meet Mr. Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage on Friday, according to the Kremlin and a White House official familiar with the planning.

据克里姆林宫和一名了解峰会安排的白宫官员称，特朗普将于周五在安克雷奇的埃尔门多夫-理查森联合基地与普京见面。

The Kremlin said the meeting was expected to begin at around 11:30 a.m. local time. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin will first hold a “tete-a-tete” discussion with interpreters, it said in a statement on Thursday, followed by negotiations by delegations and “a working breakfast.” The two men are expected to hold a joint news conference at the end, the Kremlin added.

克里姆林宫称，峰会预计将在当地时间上午11点30分左右开始。克里姆林宫在周四发布的一份声明中表示，特朗普和普京将在译员陪同下举行“闭门会谈”，然后是双方代表团的谈判和“工作早餐”。克里姆林宫还表示，预计两人将在峰会结束后举行联合记者会。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, on Tuesday described the meeting as a “listening exercise” for Mr. Trump that would give him a better idea of the Russian leader’s plans.

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特曾在周二将此次峰会描述为让特朗普更好地了解俄罗斯领导人有什么想法的一次“倾听行动”。

In 2018, Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin met alone, except for interpreters, for more than two hours during a summit held in Helsinki, Finland.

2018年在芬兰赫尔辛基举行峰会时，特朗普和普京曾仅携译员进行逾两小时的单独会晤。

Why is the summit happening now?

这次峰会为什么要在现在举行？

Ever since Mr. Trump took office in January, the United States and Russia have repeatedly raised the possibility of a summit between the American president and Mr. Putin.

自从特朗普今年1月就任总统以来，美俄已多次提出了举行元首峰会的可能性。

While the Russian leader has been eager for a meeting, Mr. Putin had balked at taking any concrete steps toward ending the war while he believed that Russia was advancing on the battlefield.

尽管俄罗斯领导人一直渴望举行峰会，但普京也一直拒绝采取任何实质行动结束战争，因为他认为俄罗斯正在战场上取得进展。

乌克兰苏梅一个遭到轰炸的停车场，摄于今年。自从普京2022年发动了入侵乌克兰的战争以来，西方已在很大程度上摈弃了他。

Mr. Trump, initially supportive of Russia and critical of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, held off on a meeting while ending the war appeared impossible. He repeatedly expressed his frustration.

特朗普最初对俄罗斯持支持态度，也对美国向乌克兰提供军事援助持批评态度，但由于停战似乎无望，他推迟了峰会。他已多次表示了自己的不满。

Then, last week, he moved up the deadline for imposing new sanctions or tariffs unless Mr. Putin ended the war. He also raised tariffs on Indian imports to the United States to 50 percent to penalize it for continued imports of Russian oil. With the sanctions deadline looming, the Russians requested a summit.

后来，他在上周表示，除非普京结束战争，他将把对俄罗斯实施新制裁或征收关税的最后期限提前。他还把对印度出口美国的商品征收的关税提高到了50%，以惩罚印度继续从俄罗斯进口石油。随着制裁期限的临近，俄罗斯主动提议举行峰会。

What does Putin want from a summit?

普京想从峰会中得到什么？

It is possible that Mr. Putin is using the summit as another stalling tactic, as well as a way to try to improve frayed ties with Washington. He also might seek to discuss issues outside the framework of Ukraine, including economic deals or cooperation in the Arctic.

普京或将峰会当作又一个拖延战术，同时试图修补与华盛顿的裂痕。他也可能寻求在乌克兰的框架之外讨论问题，包括经济协议或北极圈合作问题。

On a larger scale, the summit corresponds to Mr. Putin’s worldview, that great powers should determine their own spheres of influence, much as Stalin met with President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill of Britain in Yalta in 1945 to carve up postwar Europe.

从更大范围来看，这次峰会符合普京的世界观，那就是，应当由大国自己来确定它们的势力范围，就像斯大林1945年在雅尔塔与美国总统罗斯福和英国首相丘吉尔见面，瓜分战后的欧洲那样。

Mr. Putin believes that Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal still makes it a world power, even though Russia produces very little that the rest of the world wants apart from energy.

普京认为，俄罗斯庞大的核武库仍然使其位列世界强国，尽管除了能源外，俄罗斯基本上不生产任何世界其他国家需要的东西。

Mr. Putin, having called the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” has sought for decades to reassert Moscow’s control over Ukraine.

普京把1991年的苏联解体称为“20世纪最大的地缘政治灾难”，他几十年来一直寻求让莫斯科重新控制乌克兰。

Russia and Ukraine have held three rounds of talks in Istanbul, and Moscow has used those meetings to try to achieve territorial gains that proved elusive on the battlefield.

俄乌已在伊斯坦布尔举行了三轮谈判，莫斯科曾借此类会晤图谋获得它在战场上难以实现的领土扩张。

Mr. Putin could well make the same maximalist demands at any meeting with Mr. Trump: claiming eastern Ukraine as Russian; keeping Ukraine out of NATO; preventing the alliance from expanding into former Soviet realms; limiting the size of Ukraine’s military and ensuring that its government is friendly toward Moscow.

普京有很大可能利用所有与特朗普见面的机会提出同样的极端要求：把乌克兰东部地区宣称为俄罗斯领土；不让乌克兰加入北约；阻止北约扩张到苏联以前的地盘；对乌克兰军队的规模进行限制，确保乌克兰政府对莫斯科友好。

What’s at stake for Trump?

特朗普有什么风险？

One of Mr. Trump’s campaign promises was to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours after taking office for the second time. More than 200 days have passed, but he still considers himself a supreme deal maker. He has also made no secret of wanting a Nobel Peace Prize, and has linked his deserving of the prize to his efforts in Ukraine, among other conflicts.

特朗普的竞选承诺之一是，他将在第二次就职后的24小时内结束俄乌战争。虽然已过去了200多天，但他仍认为自己是一名超级交易撮合者。他毫不掩饰对诺贝尔和平奖的渴望，并已将自己的获奖资格与斡旋乌克兰及其他冲突联系起来。

“Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come,” Mr. Trump wrote last week on his social media platform.

“所有的人都同意这场战争必须结束，我们将在未来几天和几周里为此努力，”特朗普上周在他的社交媒体平台上写道。

His position on the war has been volatile. Earlier this year, he seemed to align himself with the Kremlin, limiting military aid to Ukraine for a time and browbeating Mr. Zelensky during a notorious Oval Office meeting in February.

他在俄乌战争上的立场一直摇摆不定。今年早些时候，他似乎站到了克里姆林宫一边，一度限制了美国向乌克兰提供的军事援助，更在2月一次声名狼藉的椭圆形办公室会晤中威逼泽连斯基。

特朗普和副总统万斯今年2月曾在椭圆形办公室与乌克兰总统泽连斯基见面时发生激烈争吵。

But as his frustration with Mr. Putin grew, he recently authorized more arms sales intended for Ukraine. He criticized Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian cities as both “disgraceful” and “disgusting.” And a month ago, he directly criticized Mr. Putin.

但随着对普京的不满增加，特朗普最近批准了更多对乌克兰的军售。他批评俄罗斯轰炸乌克兰城市的做法“可耻”、“令人作呕”。他还在一个月前点名批评了普京。

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said “there will be very severe consequences” for Russia if Mr. Putin does not agree to halt the war after the Friday meeting. Asked if he believed he could convince Mr. Putin to stop targeting Ukrainian civilians, Mr. Trump said the two leaders had already discussed that.

特朗普周三对记者说，如果普京在周五会晤后不同意停止战争的话，俄罗斯“将面临非常严重的后果”。当被问及他是否相信自己能说服普京停止袭击乌克兰平民时，特朗普说，两位领导人已经讨论过这个问题。

“I’ve had a lot of good conversations with him, and then I go home and see a rocket hit a nursing home, or a rocket hit an apartment building and people are laying dead in the streets,” Mr. Trump said.

“我已和他进行了很多次很好的对话，但我一回到家就看到一枚火箭弹击中了一家养老院，或是一枚火箭弹击中了一栋公寓楼，街上倒着死去的人，”特朗普说。

What leverage does the U.S. have over Russia?

美国对俄罗斯有什么制衡手段？

Although Mr. Trump has threatened severe direct and secondary sanctions against Russia in order to try to end the war, he has conceded that they might be ineffective.

尽管特朗普已威胁要对俄罗斯实施严厉的直接和间接的制裁，以试图结束战争，但他承认这些制裁可能不起作用。

While previous American presidents might have agreed to a summit as a reward for concessions toward a peace deal, there is no sign that Mr. Putin has changed his attitude toward rejecting any such outcome.

虽然以往的美国总统可能会在对方作出有利于和平协议的让步后，将同意举行峰会作为一种回报，但目前没有迹象表明普京已改变了他拒绝任何此类结果的态度。

Continued energy sales have allowed Russia to endure the toughest Western sanctions imposed thus far, and the country has minimal direct trade with the United States. Mr. Trump has not imposed the sharp tariffs on Russian imports levied against some American trading partners.

持续的能源销售使俄罗斯得以承受迄今最严苛的西方制裁，而且俄罗斯与美国的直接贸易极少。特朗普尚未像对待某些美国贸易伙伴那样大幅提高俄罗斯进口商品关税。

Mr. Trump said in an interview with CNBC last week that “Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel.” But Mr. Trump has not moved to sanction China, the largest importer of Russian oil, and Indian officials have said they intend to continue buying Russian oil.

特朗普上周在接受CNBC采访时说：“如果能源价格每桶再降10美元的话，普京将停止杀人。”但特朗普还没有对俄罗斯最大的石油进口国中国采取制裁行动，而印度的官员们已表示他们打算继续购买俄罗斯石油。

What was Ukraine’s reaction?

乌克兰有什么反应？

Mr. Zelensky has said that any peace deal that excludes Ukraine would be stillborn.

泽连斯基已表示，任何将乌克兰排除在外的和平协议都将夭折。

The five points agreed on in the phone call between Mr. Trump and European leaders included keeping Ukraine “at the table” for follow-up meetings on the war and refusing to discuss peace terms, like swaps of land between Russia and Ukraine, before a cease-fire is put in place.

特朗普与欧洲领导人通话时达成的五项原则包括：在有关战争的后续谈判中确保乌克兰“在谈判桌上”，以及在实现停火前拒绝讨论和平条款，比如俄罗斯与乌克兰交换领土的问题。

The principles also include security guarantees for Ukraine after the war — including retaining its right to potentially join NATO in the future — and a commitment to ramping up economic pressure on Russia if negotiations fail to reach an agreement. Europe, like Ukraine, will not be represented at the summit.

原则还包括战争结束后为乌克兰提供安全保障，包括让乌克兰保留未来加入北约的权利，以及若谈判破裂则加强对俄经济施压的承诺。与乌克兰一样，欧洲也没有代表出席这次峰会。

Despite the enormous toll that the war has taken on Ukraine in death and destruction, polls indicate that a solid majority of Ukrainians reject the idea of making the territorial and other concessions demanded by the Kremlin.

尽管战争已给乌克兰造成了巨大的人员伤亡和破坏，但民意调查显示，大多数乌克兰民众拒绝接受克里姆林宫提出的放弃领土以及其他让步要求。