2025年8月19日
For President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, a lot is riding on how much he can trust President Trump.
对于乌克兰总统泽连斯基而言,能在多大程度上信任特朗普总统是至关重要的。
Mr. Trump offered only vague assurances on Monday that the United States would play a role in guaranteeing Ukraine’s safety if Mr. Zelensky were to cut a deal with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to stop the fighting.
周一,特朗普只是含糊其辞地保证,若泽连斯基与俄罗斯总统普京达成停火协议,美国将在保障乌克兰安全方面发挥作用。
“We’re going to make sure it works,” Mr. Trump said at the start of an hourslong meeting with Mr. Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders at the White House. “And I think if we can get to peace, it’s going to work. I have no doubt about it.”
“我们会确保协议发挥作用,”特朗普在白宫与泽连斯基及欧洲领导人代表团举行的数小时会谈伊始说道,“而且我认为,只要能实现和平,它就会发挥作用。对此我毫不怀疑。”
The meeting ended with upbeat assessments by the Europeans and some progress toward a meeting between Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Putin, at a site to be determined. But the question of whether Mr. Trump can be trusted to keep his word speaks to his history of ever-changing positions and mercurial feelings about Ukraine and other diplomatic crises, especially when it comes to high-stakes negotiations.
会谈结束时,欧洲方面给出了乐观评价,实现泽连斯基与普京的会面也取得了一些进展,会面地点待定。但特朗普的承诺是否可信的问题,可以参照他在乌克兰和其他外交危机中立场多变、反复无常的历史,尤其是在干系重大的谈判中。
It is a lot for a wartime leader like Mr. Zelensky to bet on, especially with his country three and a half years into a war instigated by Russia.
对于泽连斯基这样的战时领导人来说,这是很大的赌注,尤其是他的国家已被俄罗斯挑起的战争拖了三年半之久。
“They’re not just interested in any such assurances. They’re not interested in President Trump saying, ‘You can count on me,’” said William B. Taylor Jr., a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. “They’re not going to agree or accept an assurance, a political assurance. That doesn’t give them the security they need.”
“他们不仅仅是想要这类保证。他们不会满足于特朗普总统说‘你可以信任我’,”前美国驻乌克兰大使小威廉·泰勒说,“他们不会同意或接受一种政治性的口头保证。这无法给他们提供所需的安全保障。”
After the meeting on Monday, Mr. Zelensky said the discussion about security guarantees called for Ukraine to buy $90 billion of American weapons through Europe and for the United States to buy drones from Ukraine. He said that a formal agreement still needed to be made.
周一的会谈后,泽连斯基表示,关于安全保障的讨论要求乌克兰通过欧洲购买900亿美元的美国武器,同时美国从乌克兰购买无人机。他说,正式协议仍有待达成。
Still, Mr. Trump’s talk of security guarantees was a shift from his earlier position that the protection of Ukraine should be left solely to those in Europe.
不过,与此前声称乌克兰的防御应完全交由欧洲国家负责的立场相比,特朗普关于安全保障的言论已有了转变。
That was far from the only flip-flop. Just days ago, Mr. Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Mr. Putin did not agree to a swift cease-fire, which Ukraine has demanded before any negotiations over a permanent peace begin.
这远非他唯一的立场反转。就在几天前,特朗普还威胁称,若普京不同意迅速停火——乌克兰要求在任何永久和平谈判开始前先停火——将面临“严重后果”。
He changed course after meeting last Friday in Alaska with Mr. Putin, at which point he adopted Mr. Putin’s preference for pursuing a more sweeping peace agreement — no immediate cease-fire necessary.
但上周五在阿拉斯加与普京会面后,他改变了态度,转而采纳了普京的倾向——寻求一项更全面的和平协议,无需立即停火。
Mr. Trump then turned his pressure campaign to Mr. Zelensky, saying over the weekend that the Ukrainian leader could end the war with Russia “almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue the fight.”
随后,特朗普将施压目标转向泽连斯基,他在周末表示,这位乌克兰领导人“只要愿意,几乎可以立即结束与俄罗斯的战争,或者他也可以继续战斗”。
Mr. Trump’s aides have cast both his Alaska summit with Mr. Putin and his meetings at the White House on Monday as critical steps toward peace. The European leaders commended Mr. Trump’s efforts to get Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to the negotiating table, even if any potential peace proposal has been absent critical details.
特朗普的助手们将他与普京的阿拉斯加峰会以及周一在白宫的会谈都描述为迈向和平的关键步骤。欧洲领导人称赞特朗普为促成普京与泽连斯基谈判所做的努力,尽管任何潜在的和平提案都缺乏关键细节。
“I’m really excited,” Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, told Mr. Trump during a televised portion of the meeting. “The fact that you have said I’m willing to participate in security guarantees is a big step. It’s really a breakthrough.”
“我真的很激动,”北约秘书长马克·吕特在会谈的电视直播环节中对特朗普说,“您愿意参与安全保障事宜,这是一大步。确实是一个突破。”
But there was little clarity on how involved the United States would be in such a plan.
但关于美国在这一计划中的参与程度仍不明确。
Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, said one option that would probably win the backing of Ukrainians was if European nations agreed to provide military assets inside Ukraine in the case of a future attack, while Mr. Trump agreed to back them up with defense assets stationed in neighboring countries.
前美国驻波兰大使丹尼尔·弗里德表示,有一种方案可能会赢得乌克兰人的支持:欧洲国家可以同意在乌克兰境内提供军事资产,以应对未来的袭击,特朗普则同意用驻扎在邻国的国防资产来支持这些资产。
“I don’t think Zelensky will stop with a simple verbal assurance from the president,” Mr. Fried said. “If Zelensky, you say to Trump that what you said is important and great and then you find out what the mechanisms are.”
“我认为泽连斯基不会满足于总统的简单口头保证,”弗里德说,“如果是泽连斯基的话,他会对特朗普说,你所说的很重要,也很好,然后他会弄清楚具体机制是什么。”
Beyond the war in Ukraine, Mr. Trump has given world leaders reason to doubt his assurances. He threatened to bring hell to Hamas if all hostages held by the terrorist group in Gaza were not released. He has, however, distanced himself from the human catastrophe in Gaza in recent weeks.
除了乌克兰战争,特朗普在其他方面也让世界各国领导人有理由怀疑他的保证。他曾威胁说,若哈马斯不从加沙释放所有人质,将让这个恐怖组织“下地狱”。然而,近几周他却与加沙的人道主义灾难保持了距离。
He has made repeated threats on tariffs throughout his time in office, only to back off at the last minute on multiple occasions. He once floated the idea of forcibly displacing Gazans from the Palestinian territory, only to back away from the idea when he faced pushback from Arab nations.
在任期间,他多次威胁要加征关税,却多次在最后一刻退缩。他曾一度提出强行将加沙人驱逐出巴勒斯坦领土的想法,但在遭到阿拉伯国家反对后又放弃了这一想法。
He has also repeatedly shifted his approach to Mr. Putin, at times saying he can work with the Russian leader to secure peace and at other times threatening him with sweeping economic penalties.
他对普京的态度也多次转变,时而表示能与这位俄罗斯领导人合作实现和平,时而又威胁要对其实施全面经济制裁。
In a moment of candor on Monday, Mr. Trump acknowledged that the war in Ukraine — which he once promised to end in 24 hours — was more challenging than he had once anticipated.
周一,特朗普坦言他承诺的在24小时内结束的乌克兰战争比他预想的更具挑战性。
“I thought this was going to be one of the easier ones,” Mr. Trump said as he described his administration’s work trying to end global conflicts. “It’s actually one of the most difficult and very complex.”
“我原以为这会是比较容易解决的问题之一,”特朗普在描述其政府为结束全球冲突所做的努力时说,“但实际上,这是最棘手且极其复杂的问题之一。”