2025年9月2日
It was a scene in eastern China almost certainly intended for an audience on the other side of the world: The leaders of China, Russia and India, the three largest powers not aligned with the West, smiling and laughing like good friends as they greeted each other at a summit on Monday.
发生在中国东部的这一幕情景基本上是为了地球另一端的观众而展现的:在周一的峰会上,中国、俄罗斯、印度这三个不与西方结盟的世界大国的领导人互致问候,像好友一样笑容满面、谈笑风生。
It starts with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia holding hands and walking into a meeting hall filled with other world leaders. They head straight for President Xi Jinping of China, shake hands and form a close circle. A few words are exchanged before translators join the huddle. Mr. Putin cracks a broad smile, and Mr. Modi lets out a big laugh. At one point, Mr. Modi joins hands with the two leaders.
先是印度总理莫迪和俄罗斯总统普京手拉着手走进了满是其他国家领导人的会议厅。他们径直走向中国国家主席习近平,三人相互握手,并亲密地围成一个小圈。在翻译们凑进来之前,他们交谈了几句。普京露出灿烂的笑容,莫迪大声地笑了出来。有一刻莫迪还与其他两位领导人牵起了手。
The tableau carried multiple messages, analysts said. The bonhomie between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin was meant to convey a close bond between them as leaders of an alternative world order challenging the United States. Mr. Modi sought to show that India has other important friends — including China, regardless of an unresolved border dispute — if the Trump administration chooses to continue alienating New Delhi with tariffs.
分析人士表示,这个场景传递出了多个信息。习近平与普京的友好被看作是要对外传递两人之间关系的密切程度,两人要成为一个挑战美国的替代世界秩序的领导人。莫迪则寻求对外表明如果特朗普政府继续选择关税、疏远印度的话,印度还有其他的重要友邦——包括中国,尽管双方的边界争端尚未解决。
“Optics is a key part of this summit, and the White House should grasp that its policies will result in other countries looking for alternatives to meet their interests,” said Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, India.
“公开展示的场景是这次峰会的一个关键部分,白宫应该明白,它的政策将导致其他国家寻找美国以外的选择来满足自身利益,”印度班加罗尔塔克沙希拉研究所的印太研究负责人马诺伊·凯瓦尔拉马尼说。
That imagery in the city of Tianjin, where more than 20 leaders from mostly Central Asia and South Asia gathered, showed how the geopolitical disruption caused by Mr. Trump has given China and Russia a platform to rally partners such as Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Pakistan.
发生在天津的这一幕——20多位主要来自中亚和南亚的领导人聚集于此——表明了特朗普制造的地缘政治动荡是如何为中俄提供了一个平台,将伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、白俄罗斯,以及巴基斯坦等伙伴国家团结起来的。
在天津出席上合组织峰会的欧亚国家领导人,摄于周日。
China wants to seize on the unpopularity of America’s chaotic trade policies to drive a wedge between Washington and the rest of the world, arguing that it can serve as a more stable global leader.
美国混乱的贸易政策在全球不受欢迎,中国则想利用这个机会来在华盛顿与世界其他国家的关系之间制造裂痕,称自己有能力领导一个更为稳定的世界。
Mr. Xi, in his opening speech at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security grouping, took not-so-subtle jabs at the United States, urging members of the group to oppose a “Cold War mentality, bloc confrontation and bullying.” He said the organization must “forge ahead” amid “global upheaval.”
习近平在上海合作组织(由一些欧亚国家组成的安全小集团)的开幕致辞时,几乎毫不掩饰地批评了美国,他呼吁上合组织成员国反对“冷战思维”、“霸权主义和强权政治”。他说,上合组织需要“做动荡世界中的稳定力量”。
Mr. Putin delivered a speech that repeated his claims about the West being at fault for his country’s war in Ukraine. He also praised a recent summit he had with President Trump in Alaska to discuss the conflict and said that he had already briefed Mr. Xi about those talks in detail, comments seeming to signal China’s central role in Russia’s diplomatic calculus.
普京在发表讲话时重复了他一贯的说法,即西方国家应为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争负责。他还赞扬了自己最近在阿拉斯加与美国总统特朗普就俄乌冲突举行的峰会,并说他已向习近平详细介绍了“特普会”的情况。这个说法似乎显示了中国在俄罗斯外交考量中的核心地位。
Mr. Modi, for his part, spoke of “promoting multilateralism and an inclusive world order” — in other words, a system in which countries like India had a greater say in global affairs.
莫迪在发表讲话时提到“促进多边主义和一个包容性的世界秩序”——换句话说,就是一个让印度等国家能够在全球事务中有更大话语权的世界体系。
The three-way hand-holding between Mr. Modi, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi was nothing short of the smiling manifestation of a troika that Moscow had recently said it hoped to revive. In another demonstration of closeness soon after, Mr. Modi shared a car with Mr. Putin as they rode together to a meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
莫迪、普京、习近平三人手着拉手的场景可以说是莫斯科最近表示希望“三驾马车”重启的微笑写照。该场景出现后不久,莫迪与普京又一次展示了双方的亲密关系,两人同乘一辆车前往峰会场外举行的双边会晤地点。
“Conversations with him are always insightful,” Mr. Modi wrote on his social media account, where he shared a photo of the ride. According to Russian state media, Mr. Modi decided at the last minute to join Mr. Putin in his Russian limousine for the ride to the hotel where they were to meet. Upon arriving at the venue, they spent 50 minutes talking in the car before the official meeting began.
“与他的谈话总是富有洞见,”莫迪在自己的社交媒体账号上写道,并分享了一张两人在车里的照片。据俄罗斯官媒报道,莫迪在最后一刻决定乘坐普京的俄罗斯豪华轿车前往他们将举行会晤的酒店。抵达会场后,二人在正式会谈开始前在车内继续交谈了50分钟。
In the past, India’s risk-averse bureaucracy would have taken pains to avoid such overt displays of warmth with China and Russia — the secret to expanding ties with Washington while keeping a seat at forums led by the other major powers. But Mr. Trump’s barrage of tariffs on India, now at 50 percent after penalizing India for buying Russian oil, has left little incentive for India to do so.
在过去,印度的官僚体系不愿冒风险,因而往往竭力避免如此公开地展示对中俄友好,这也是印度在发展与美国关系的同时在其他大国领导的论坛上保持一席之地的秘诀。但特朗普接二连三地提高了对印度的关税,目前的税率已升到50%,最近一次提高关税是为了惩罚印度购买俄罗斯的石油。这让印度几乎没有任何动力避免向中俄示好。
This time, Mr. Modi even splashed the visuals on his social media accounts shortly after the meeting opened, showing how far, and how suddenly, that juggling act has been upended. Later, Mr. Modi was even more effusive at the meeting, telling Mr. Putin that “1.4 billion Indians are waiting with excitement” to welcome him in New Delhi in December.
这次,莫迪甚至在会晤开始后不久就在他的社交媒体账号上发布了这些照片,显示了印度这种平衡策略已被颠覆的程度之大、速度之快。莫迪后来在会晤中表现得更加热情洋溢,他对普京说,“14亿印度人民正兴奋地等待着”今年12月在新德里欢迎他的来访。
“It is a testament of the depth and breadth of our ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ that even in the most difficult times India and Russia have stood shoulder to shoulder,” Mr. Modi told Mr. Putin.
莫迪对普京说:“印度和俄罗斯一直齐心协力,即使在最艰难的时候,这证明了我们‘特殊和特有战略伙伴关系’的深度和广度。”
俄罗斯官媒发布的照片显示,普京与莫迪周一在峰会场外举行了双边会晤。
The summit, which ends Monday, is the first part of a diplomatic showcase that Mr. Xi has lined up this week. In the lead-up to this meeting, he has held talks with many of the visiting leaders, including Mr. Modi, during which he said that the two countries should see each other as partners and not rivals.
周一结束的峰会是习近平本周安排的外交展示的第一幕。峰会开始前,习近平已与包括莫迪在内的多位来访领导人举行了会谈,习近平与莫迪会面时说,中印两国应该视对方为合作伙伴,而不是竞争对手。
He is also expected to hold talks with Mr. Putin. But the biggest highlight is a military parade in Beijing on Wednesday aimed at commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, to be attended by Mr. Putin and Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator. Mr. Xi has tried to recast China’s role in the war to burnish the Communist Party’s image and buttress its claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea, scholars have said.
预计习近平还将与普京举行会谈。但这次外交展示最大的亮点是周三在北京举行的纪念第二次世界大战结束80周年的阅兵式,普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩将参加观礼。学者指出,为了提升中共的形象,强化中国政府对台湾和南中国海的主权主张,习近平已试图改写中国在“二战”中的作用。
In one sign of how China is using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to serve its interests, Mr. Xi in his speech on Monday called on countries to “promote a correct understanding of World War II history.”
习近平周一在上海合作组织会议上发表讲话时呼吁各国“弘扬正确二战史观”,这是中国正在利用该组织为自身利益服务的一个迹象。
“Xi Jinping clearly wants to challenge the post-World War II global order dominated by the United States and show that China is a reliable and legitimate alternative,” said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
“习近平显然想挑战美国主导的二战后全球秩序,并表明中国是一个可靠的、合情合理的选择,”新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院副教授吴木銮说。
The public show of unity between the three leaders masked deep suspicions and conflicting interests.
中印俄三国领导人公开展示团结的场景掩盖了三国之间深层次的猜疑和利益冲突。
China and India remain locked in mistrust over their disputed border; Beijing says that the issue should not define the overall relationship between the two countries. But India would like a resolution to the dispute, and Mr. Modi is also wary that his earlier courting of Mr. Xi had backfired by causing him embarrassment.
中印两国因边界争议而陷入的互不信任没有改变;虽然北京表示边界问题不应决定两国关系的整体走向。但印度想找到解决争端的办法,而且,莫迪也担心,他以前试图取悦习近平的做法曾让自己难堪,带来了适得其反的结果。
Despite the warm ties with Moscow, India cannot expect to replace Western economic support with Russia, a country hit badly by sanctions because of its invasion of Ukraine.
尽管印度与莫斯科关系密切,但它无法指望依靠俄罗斯来取代西方的经济支持,俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰而遭到严重制裁。
As for China, though it projects especially close ties with Russia at the moment, it has been looking warily at Moscow’s growing influence over North Korea.
至于中国,尽管目前与俄罗斯展现出尤为紧密的关系,但该国一直对莫斯科在朝鲜日益增长的影响力保持警惕。
“Optics do little to alleviate the fault lines that exist in the troika of India, China and Russia,” said Mr. Kewalramani.
“公开展示的场景缓和不了印度、中国、俄罗斯的三国集团内部存在的冲突,”凯瓦尔拉马尼说。