Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India was losing patience with President Trump.

印度总理莫迪对特朗普总统失去了耐心。

Mr. Trump had been saying — repeatedly, publicly, exuberantly — that he had “solved” the military conflict between India and Pakistan, a dispute that dates back more than 75 years and is far deeper and more complicated than Mr. Trump was making it out to be.

特朗普曾——反复、公开、兴高采烈地——表示，他已经“解决了”印度和巴基斯坦之间的军事冲突，这场争端可以追溯到逾75年前，其深度和复杂程度远非特朗普说得那么简单。

During a phone call on June 17, Mr. Trump brought it up again, saying how proud he was of ending the military escalation. He mentioned that Pakistan was going to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, an honor for which he had been openly campaigning. The not-so-subtle implication, according to people familiar with the call, was that Mr. Modi should do the same.

在6月17日的一次通话中，特朗普再次提及此事，称他对结束军事冲突的升级感到多么自豪。他提到巴基斯坦将提名他角逐诺贝尔和平奖，这是一项他一直在公开争取的荣誉。知情人士称，他话里话外的意思是莫迪也应该这么做。

The Indian leader bristled. He told Mr. Trump that U.S. involvement had nothing to do with the recent cease-fire. It had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.

这位印度领导人勃然大怒。他告诉特朗普，近期的停火与美国无关。这是印度和巴基斯坦之间直接协商的结果。

Mr. Trump largely brushed off Mr. Modi’s comments, but the disagreement — and Mr. Modi’s refusal to engage on the Nobel — has played an outsize role in the souring relationship between the two leaders, whose once-close ties go back to Mr. Trump’s first term.

特朗普基本上没有理会莫迪的话，但这一分歧——以及莫迪在诺贝尔奖问题上的拒绝合作——对两位领导人之间关系的恶化产生了巨大影响。莫迪与特朗普的关系一度十分密切，这可以追溯到特朗普的第一个任期。

The dispute has played out against the backdrop of trade talks of immense importance to India and the United States, and the fallout risks pushing India closer to American adversaries in Beijing and Moscow. Mr. Modi is expected to travel to China this weekend, where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

这一分歧发生之际，印度和美国正在进行对双方都极为重要的贸易谈判，其后果可能会让印度进一步向美国的对手中国和俄罗斯靠拢。莫迪上周末前往中国，与中国领导人习近平和俄罗斯总统普京会面。

This article is based on interviews with more than a dozen people in Washington and New Delhi, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a relationship that has far-reaching implications for both sides, with Mr. Trump eroding a strategic relationship and India alienating its biggest trading partner as it tries to keep its economy afloat.

本文基于对华盛顿和新德里十余人的采访撰写，其中大多数受访者要求匿名，因为他们谈及的这种关系对双方都有深远影响：特朗普正在削弱这一战略关系，而印度在努力维持经济运转的同时却疏远了自己最大的贸易伙伴。

2020年特朗普访印期间，印度艾哈迈达巴德的通勤者经过特朗普和莫迪的肖像。

Just weeks after the June phone call, and with trade talks dragging on, Mr. Trump startled India by announcing that imports from the country would be subjected to a tariff of 25 percent. And on Wednesday, he slapped India with an additional 25 percent tariff for buying Russian oil, adding up to a crushing 50 percent.

就在6月通话的几周后，贸易谈判进展缓慢之际，特朗普宣布将对从印度进口的商品征收25%的关税，这让印度大吃一惊。上周三，他又因为印度购买俄罗斯石油而对其实施额外的25%关税，也就是总计高达50%的毁灭性关税。

Mr. Modi, who once called Mr. Trump “a true friend,” was officially on the outs. After telling Mr. Modi that he would travel to India later this year for the Quad summit, Mr. Trump no longer has plans to visit in the fall, according to people familiar with the president’s schedule.

莫迪曾称特朗普为“真正的朋友”，但现在两人关系正式破裂。特朗普曾告诉莫迪，他将在今年晚些时候前往印度参加四方安全对话峰会，但据熟悉总统日程的人士透露，他现在已没有秋季访印的计划。

In India, Mr. Trump is now seen in some quarters as a source of national humiliation. Last week, a giant Trump effigy was paraded around a festival in the state of Maharashtra, with signs declaring him a backstabber. The blows from the United States have been so intense that one Indian official described them as “gundagardi”: straight-up bullying, or thuggery.

在印度，特朗普现在在某些圈子里被视为一个让这个国家蒙羞的人物。上周，马哈拉施特拉邦一个节日的游行队伍中出现了一个巨大的特朗普人偶，标牌上写着“背后捅刀子的家伙”。来自美国的打击如此猛烈，以至于一位印度官员将其描述为“gundagardi”，意思是赤裸裸的欺凌或流氓行径。

The two men have not spoken since the June 17 phone call.

自6月17日通话以来，两人再未交谈过。

At its core, the story of Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi is about two brash, populist leaders with big egos and authoritarian tendencies, and the web of loyalties that help keep both men in power. But it is also the tale of an American president with his eye on a Nobel Prize, running smack into the immovable third rail of Indian politics: the conflict with Pakistan.

从本质上看，特朗普和莫迪的故事是关于两个张扬的民粹主义领导人——他们自负、带有威权倾向，并依靠一张忠诚网络来维持权力。但同时还有这样一个故事：一位觊觎诺贝尔奖的美国总统，正面撞上了印度政治中不可触碰的雷区——与巴基斯坦的冲突。

A Political Nonstarter

政治层面的徒劳之举

Few in India expected Mr. Modi to end up in this situation.

在印度，几乎没有人预料到莫迪会陷入如此境地。

He won his third term in office on the promise of transforming himself and his country into global players. And even if Mr. Trump was known to focus more on personal relationships and less on geopolitical strategy, the Indians thought that dynamic would work in their favor.

他凭借将自身与国家转变为全球参与者的承诺赢得了第三个总理任期。尽管特朗普以更关注个人关系而非地缘战略著称，印度方面仍认为此种态势对自己有利。

During Mr. Trump’s first term, he attended the large “Howdy Modi!” rally of the Indian diaspora in Texas. Months later, the American president visited Mr. Modi’s home state of Gujarat for an event branded “Namaste Trump!”

在特朗普的第一个任期内，莫迪出席了印度侨民在得克萨斯州举行的盛大的“你好莫迪！”集会。数月后，特朗普访问了莫迪的家乡古吉拉特邦，参加了一个名为“你好特朗普！”的活动。

Mr. Modi greeted him with a hug at the airport and then celebrated Mr. Trump with music, dancers and more than 100,000 cheering attendees.

莫迪不仅在机场以拥抱相迎，更用音乐、舞蹈表演以及超过十万欢呼的群众为特朗普举行庆祝盛典。

2019年，特朗普与莫迪在休斯敦的“你好莫迪！”集会上手牵手。2020年，两位领导人共同出席艾哈迈达巴德群众集会时，现场人潮涌动。

In Mr. Trump’s second term, foreign leaders have found success by tending to his ego with compliments and gifts. The British prime minister arrived at the White House with a letter from King Charles. The Finnish president bonded with Mr. Trump on the golf course. Even President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, whom Mr. Trump once berated in public, showed up at the White House and thanked him in front of the cameras.

在特朗普的第二个任期，外国领导人通过奉承和礼物来满足其虚荣心，从而达到自己的目的。英国首相带着查尔斯国王的信抵达白宫。芬兰总统与特朗普在高尔夫球场上培养感情。甚至曾被特朗普公开斥责的乌克兰总统泽连斯基也出现在白宫并在镜头前感谢他。

But what Mr. Trump wants most from Mr. Modi is a political nonstarter.

但特朗普最想从莫迪这里得到的却是政治层面行不通的东西。

If Mr. Modi were to be perceived as having caved to American pressure for a cease-fire with a weaker nation, the costs at home would be enormous. Mr. Modi’s strongman identity depends, in large part, on how tough he is on Pakistan. Acknowledging that Mr. Trump had a role, let alone nominating him for a Nobel for it, would be seen as surrender. For Pakistan, which has found itself in Mr. Trump’s good graces recently, the decision to nominate him for the prize came quickly.

如果被认为屈服于美国压力与一个较弱的国家达成停火，莫迪在国内的政治代价将是巨大的。莫迪的强人形象在很大程度上取决于他对巴基斯坦的强硬态度。承认特朗普在其中发挥作用——更不用说为此提名他获得诺贝尔奖——都将被视为屈服。而对近日重获特朗普青睐的巴基斯坦而言，提名他获得诺贝尔奖的决定来得毫不迟疑。

It is difficult to quantify exactly how much influence the United States had in resolving the latest outbreak of violence between India and Pakistan. Mr. Trump contends that he used trade as leverage to get the two sides to stop fighting. After these enticements and warnings, he said, “all of a sudden they said, ‘I think we will stop’” the fighting.

很难准确地量化美国在解决印度和巴基斯坦之间最近爆发的暴力冲突方面发挥了多大的影响。特朗普辩称，他利用贸易作为杠杆，让双方停止战斗。他说，在这些诱惑和警告之后，“他们突然说，‘我想我们会停止’”战斗。

India denies that.

印度对此予以否认。

Washington does carry a lot of sway on both sides, and historically, messages from American leaders have helped quell tensions. But the fact that Mr. Modi could not find a way to even subtly acknowledge some Trump role, given the stakes, shows how explosive the issue is for him. Analysts say the extreme rigidity of the Indian response also speaks to how power over the past decade has been increasingly centralized at the service of protecting Mr. Modi’s strongman image at all costs.

华盛顿确实对双方都有很大的影响力，从历史上看，美国领导人发出的信息有助于缓和紧张局势。但考虑到利害关系，莫迪甚至无法以哪怕是委婉的方式承认特朗普发挥了作用，这一事实表明，这个问题对他来说是多么敏感。分析人士称，印度的反应毫无转圜空间，也说明过去10年里，权力越来越集中，为维护莫迪的强人形象不惜一切代价。

“The idea that Modi would accept a cease-fire under U.S. pressure or that he needed or sought mediation — it doesn’t just go against his personality,” said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “It goes against Indian diplomatic practice. Modi sold his relationships with U.S. presidents as an asset — strategically and politically — and now the opposition is portraying his friendship with Trump as a liability.”

“认为莫迪会在美国的压力下接受停火的想法，或者他需要或寻求调解的想法，不仅仅是违背了他的个性，”布鲁金斯学会高级研究员坦维·马丹说。“还违背了印度的外交惯例。莫迪在战略上和政治上都把他与美国总统的关系作为一种资产来推销，而现在反对派却把他与特朗普的友谊描绘成一种负担。”

After the June call with Mr. Trump, Indian officials put out a statement saying Mr. Modi had “firmly stated that India does not and will never accept mediation” and that “President Trump listened carefully” and “expressed his support toward India’s fight against terrorism.”

在6月与特朗普通话后，印度官员发表声明称，莫迪“坚定地表示，印度不会也永远不会接受调解”，并称“特朗普总统认真听取了意见”，且“表达了对印度反恐斗争的支持”。

The White House did not acknowledge the call, nor did Mr. Trump post about it on his social media accounts. And yet, four days after he spoke with Mr. Modi, Mr. Trump mentioned the issue again when he announced a peace deal between Congo and Rwanda.

白宫没有确认这通电话，特朗普也没有在自己的社交媒体账户上发布此事。然而，在与莫迪通话四天后，特朗普在宣布刚果和卢旺达达成和平协议时再次提到了这个问题。

“I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for this, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping the War between India and Pakistan,” Mr. Trump posted. “No, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do.”

“我不会因此获得诺贝尔和平奖，阻止印巴战争也不会让我获得诺贝尔和平奖，”特朗普发文说。“不，不管我做什么，我都拿不到诺贝尔和平奖。”

‘This Is About More Than Just Russia’

“不只是俄罗斯的问题”

Mr. Trump says the tariffs on India are punishment for buying Russian oil and for the protectionist nature of the Indian market, a longstanding complaint for Mr. Trump and other American presidents.

特朗普表示，对印度征收关税是惩罚其购买俄罗斯石油以及印度的市场保护主义的举措，后者长期以来一直令特朗普和其他美国总统不满。

The White House insists that the two men have “a respectful relationship” and “remain in close communication,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement.

白宫发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中表示，白宫坚称两国领导人“关系融洽”，并“保持密切沟通”。

“President Trump was able to successfully bring peace to the conflict between India and Pakistan,” she said, repeating the assertion that India had flatly denied.

“特朗普总统成功地为印度和巴基斯坦之间的冲突带来了和平，”她重申了印度断然否认的说法。

But to many officials and observers, the colossal penalties on India in particular appear to be punishment for not falling in line rather than any kind of cohesive effort to reduce the trade deficit or cut off funding for Mr. Putin’s war. They point out that China, the biggest importer of Russian crude, has been spared.

但在许多官员和观察人士看来，与其说是为缩减贸易逆差或切断普京战争资金而采取的协同行动，严厉举措不如说是对印度不愿就范的惩罚。他们指出，俄罗斯原油的最大进口国中国没有受到影响。

印度科钦，工人们正在打包准备出口的对虾。

“If this was a real change in policy in trying to squeeze Russia, Trump could have put his weight behind legislation that would have imposed secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian hydrocarbons,” said Richard M. Rossow, the chair on India at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The fact that they have uniquely targeted India says this is about more than just Russia,” he added.

“如果这是试图挤压俄罗斯的政策的真正改变，特朗普本可以支持立法，对购买俄罗斯油气产品的国家实施延伸性的制裁，”战略与国际研究中心印度问题主任理查德·罗索说。“他们专门针对印度的事实表明，这不只是俄罗斯的问题，”他还说。

India is now alone with Brazil, led by a president who has antagonized Mr. Trump directly, in being subject to 50 percent tariffs, higher than any other country. (Pakistan came away with 19 percent.)

印度现在和巴西一样，成为了仅有的两个被征收50%关税的国家，这一税率高于其他任何国家，巴西的总统曾直接与特朗普作对。（巴基斯坦的关税最终为19%。）

Another point of tension has been the power of the anti-immigrant sentiments within Mr. Trump’s base. Indian officials believed early on that they could find common ground with the American right-wing movement but they were caught off guard by the rift among Mr. Trump’s supporters over H-1B visas, with much of the attention directed at Indians, who make up the largest holders of such visas.

另一个紧张点在于特朗普阵营内部反移民情绪的力量。印度官员一开始认为，他们可以与美国右翼运动找到共同点，但特朗普的支持者在H-1B签证问题上的分歧让他们措手不及，该签证最大持有群体印度人成为众矢之的。

Indian students also make up one out of every four foreign students in the United States, so Mr. Trump’s crackdown on student visas took the country by surprise.

印度学生还占美国留学生总数的四分之一，因此特朗普对学生签证的打击令印度感到意外。

Stephen Miller, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, has repeatedly complained to the president about the high numbers of undocumented immigrants from India, who are among those who have been rounded up and deported as part of Mr. Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration. The method and timing of some of those deportations caused headaches for Mr. Modi and made clear Mr. Trump would not be sensitive to the political realities the Indian leader was facing.

特朗普的高级顾问斯蒂芬·米勒多次向总统抱怨大量来自印度的无证移民，在特朗普打击非法移民的行动中，他们是被围捕和驱逐的对象。其中一些驱逐的方式和时机给莫迪造成了麻烦，也表明特朗普对这位印度领导人面临的政治现实毫不体谅。

今年2月，一架载有被遣返印度公民的美国军用飞机降落阿姆利则。

Planeloads of deportees in shackles and handcuffs arrived in India in February, causing an uproar just as Mr. Modi was departing for a trip to Washington.

2月，大批戴着镣铐和手铐的被驱逐者乘飞机抵达印度，当时正值莫迪启程前往华盛顿，这引起了轩然大波。

But at a friendly news conference during the visit that month, there were signs that the two sides could still find a way forward, with India buying billions of dollars more of American oil and gas, to assuage Mr. Trump’s grievance over the balance sheet.

但在当月访问期间的一场友好的新闻发布会上，双方仍显露出寻求突破的迹象：印度承诺增购数十亿美元美国油气产品，以缓解特朗普对贸易逆差的不满。

“We can make up the difference very easily with the deficit,” Mr. Trump said, with Mr. Modi standing next to him.

“我们能轻松弥补贸易逆差，”特朗普说，当时莫迪就站在他旁边。

‘Do You Believe Me or Trump?’

“你们相信我，还是特朗普？”

Then, in May, some of the worst fighting in decades erupted between India and Pakistan.

5月，印度和巴基斯坦之间爆发了几十年来最严重的战争。

The conflict began after 26 people were killed in a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir, a contested region between the two nations, while Vice President JD Vance and his family were on a visit in India. Mr. Trump dialed up Mr. Modi to express his sympathies.

印巴两国争议地区克什米尔的印度一侧发生恐怖袭击，造成26人死亡，当时副总统万斯及其家人正在印度访问。特朗普致电莫迪表达慰问。

As the fighting raged, with both sides firing drones and missiles over four days, the Trump administration stepped in to lend its weight for a diplomatic solution, with the vice president and the secretary of state making calls to both sides.

随着战斗愈演愈烈，双方在四天的时间里发射了无人机和导弹，特朗普政府介入，希望通过外交途径解决问题，副总统和国务卿分别致电双方。

Early in the evening on the fourth day of fighting, reporters were called for a news conference in New Delhi with rumors that a conditional cease-fire had been agreed to by the two sides. But just before India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, stepped up to the podium to make the announcement, Mr. Trump upstaged him by flashing an announcement of “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE” on Truth Social.

交火的第四天傍晚，记者们被叫到新德里召开新闻发布会，谣传双方已同意有条件的停火。但就在印度外交部长维克拉姆·米斯里走上讲台宣布这一消息之前，特朗普抢了他的风头，在Truth Social上发表了一份“全面、立即停火”的声明。

Minutes later, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, announced that India and Pakistan had agreed “to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.”

几分钟后，国务卿鲁比奥宣布，印度和巴基斯坦已同意“在中立地点就一系列广泛问题展开谈判”。

That statement in particular was galling to the Indians because it has been India’s policy for decades that the issue of Pakistan — especially in relation to Kashmir — is one for the two countries to handle alone, without third-party mediation.

这一声明尤其激怒了印度人，因为印度几十年来的政策是，巴基斯坦问题由两国自主解决，不需要第三方调解，特别是与克什米尔有关的问题。

5月印巴冲突期间，一名女子查看自己位于克什米尔的房屋的受损情况。一名在5月克什米尔地区战斗中阵亡的印度边防部队士兵的葬礼。

The shock and anger was clear on the faces of the Indian officials in the room. Mr. Misri stepped up and read his statement, making no mention of any outside role or Mr. Trump’s claim, and left. When reporters swarmed around other officials and asked about Mr. Trump’s declaration, one official pushed back: “Do you believe me or Trump?”

会议室里的印度官员们脸上明显流露出震惊和愤怒。米斯里站了起来，宣读了他的声明，没有提到任何外部角色或特朗普的声明，然后离开了。记者们围住其他官员，询问特朗普的声明，一名官员反驳说：“你们是相信我，还是相信特朗普？”

A Declined Invitation to Washington

拒绝华盛顿的邀请

By the time Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi got on the phone in June, there might have been an opportunity to mend ties and refocus on the ongoing trade negotiations.

6月通话时，特朗普和莫迪本有机会修复关系，将焦点转回到正在进行的贸易谈判。

But that did not happen.

但这并没有发生。

The call, which lasted 35 minutes, took place as Mr. Trump flew back to Washington on Air Force One after he left early from the Group of 7 industrialized countries meeting in Canada, which Mr. Modi also attended.

那通电话持续了35分钟，当时特朗普刚刚提前离开在加拿大举行的七国集团工业化国家会议，乘坐空军一号返回华盛顿。莫迪也出席了会议。

Mr. Modi declined an invitation from Mr. Trump to stop by Washington before he flew home. His officials were scandalized that Mr. Trump might try to force their leader into a handshake with Pakistan’s army chief, who had also been invited to the White House for lunch around the same time. It was another clear sign, a senior Indian official said, that Mr. Trump cared little for the complexity of their issue or the sensitivities and history around it.

莫迪拒绝了特朗普让他在回国前去一趟华盛顿的邀请。印度官员对特朗普可能试图迫使他们的领导人与巴基斯坦陆军参谋长握手感到震惊，后者也在大约同一时间被邀请到白宫共进午餐。一名印度高级官员表示，这是又一个明显的迹象，表明特朗普不太关心印巴问题的复杂性，也不太关心围绕这个问题的敏感性和历史。

Later on, there was talk of trying to set up another call to finalize a partial trade deal. But with the trust between the two leaders eroding, the Indians were wary of putting Mr. Modi on the phone with Mr. Trump. Indian officials were nervous that Mr. Trump would post whatever he wanted on Truth Social, regardless of what agreements were made on the call, a senior Indian official said.

后来，有传言称将安排两人之间的另一次通话，以敲定部分贸易协议。但随着两位领导人之间的信任受到侵蚀，印度人对于安排莫迪与特朗普通话持谨慎态度。一名印度高级官员称，印度官员担心特朗普会在Truth Social上发布他想说的任何内容，不管这次通话达成了什么协议。

Mr. Trump, frustrated by the tariff negotiations, reached out to Mr. Modi several times, according to two people briefed on the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss them publicly.

据两名了解讨论情况的人士透露，对关税谈判感到失望的特朗普曾多次与莫迪联系。由于没有被授权公开讨论这些问题，这两名人士要求匿名。

Mr. Modi did not respond to those requests, they said.

他们说，莫迪没有回应这些要求。

Ms. Kelly, the White House spokeswoman, denied that Mr. Trump had reached out.

白宫发言人凯利否认特朗普曾主动联系莫迪。

In the final stretch before the additional 25 percent tariff kicked in on Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced he was nominating Sergio Gor, a close adviser, to serve as ambassador to India, with the additional charge of special envoy for the region. (Indian officials were torn over how to read the nomination — Mr. Gor was close to Mr. Trump, yes, but they were offended that the “regional” envoy designation lumped India in with Pakistan.)

在上周三加征25%关税之前的最后阶段，特朗普宣布提名他的亲信顾问塞尔吉奥·戈尔担任驻印度大使，并兼任该地区特使。（印度官员对如何解读这一提名感到困惑——没错，戈尔与特朗普关系密切，但他们对“地区”特使的称谓将印度与巴基斯坦混为一谈感到不快。）

In the hours before the deadline, officials from the United States and India held a virtual meeting, discussing a range of issues from trade to defense cooperation.

在最后期限前的几个小时，美国和印度的官员举行了一次视频会议，讨论了从贸易到防务合作的一系列问题。

But not only have the additional tariffs gone into effect as announced, Mr. Trump’s advisers have continued railing against India. One called India’s approach to trade negotiations “arrogant” and another went as far as calling the conflict in Ukraine “Modi’s war.”

但是，不仅额外的关税如宣布的那样生效，特朗普的顾问们还在继续指责印度。其中一人称印度的贸易谈判方式“傲慢”，另一人甚至称乌克兰冲突是“莫迪的战争”。

Now, Mr. Modi, in public at least, appears to be moving on from talk of trade negotiations. Instead, he is talking about “self-reliance” and reviving his decade-old “Make in India” campaign as he continues to play to his home base.

如今，莫迪至少在公开场合似乎已不再谈论贸易谈判。取而代之的是，他开始强调“自力更生”理念，并重启十年前提出的“印度制造”计划，继续迎合他的选民。

And during this weekend’s trip to China — Mr. Modi’s first in seven years — he is expected to have a receptive audience for stronger and expanded ties with Beijing and Moscow.

在本次访华行程中——这是莫迪七年来首次访华——他有望获得积极响应，推动与北京及莫斯科建立更紧密、更广泛的合作关系。