At the Capitol in January, India’s foreign minister was seated in the front row for President Trump’s inauguration, a sign of the deepening ties that a generation of American presidents have attempted to forge with the world’s most populous nation.

今年1月，在国会大厦举行的特朗普总统就职典礼上，印度外交部长坐在第一排，这表明历届美国总统努力与这个世界上人口最多的国家建立的关系还在加深。

Now, just months later, Mr. Trump is publicly lamenting that India has abandoned him for the embrace of China, Washington’s strategic rival.

现在，仅仅几个月后，特朗普就公开哀叹印度抛弃了他，转而投向华盛顿的战略对手中国的怀抱。

“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday morning, as he posted a photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The three leaders met in China earlier this week.

“看来我们已经把印度和俄罗斯都输给了最深邃、最黑暗的中国，”特朗普周五早上在Truth Social社交平台写道，配图是印度总理莫迪、俄罗斯总统普京与中国国家主席习近平的合影。这三位领导人上周早些时候在中国举行了会晤。

“May they have a long and prosperous future together!” he wrote.

他写道：“愿他们共同拥有一个长久而繁荣的未来！”

It was a rare acknowledgment that Mr. Trump’s attempts at blunt-force diplomacy, not to mention punishing tariffs, were having some unintended consequences. The uneasy partnership to create an alternative to the West’s global leadership that began with China and Russia, then expanded to North Korea and Iran, may now be about to incorporate — at least episodically — India, the world’s largest democracy.

这罕见地承认了特朗普粗暴的外交手段——更不用说惩罚性关税——正引发某些意外后果。这种最初由中俄启动，然后扩展到朝鲜和伊朗的脆弱伙伴关系旨在创造西方全球领导地位的替代品，现在可能即将吸纳世界上最大的民主国家印度——至少是阶段性的。

It is too early to predict whether Mr. Modi’s visit to China, the first in seven years, marks a real shift or just a warning shot to Washington. During the Cold War, India led the nonaligned movement, and it is skilled at playing superpowers off against each other. This may be one of those moments.

莫迪七年来首次访问中国，这标志着真正的转变，抑或只是向华盛顿发出警告，目前作出预测还为时过早。在冷战期间，印度领导了不结盟运动，而且它擅长让超级大国相互对抗。目前可能又是这样的时刻。

Later on Friday, Mr. Trump tried to downplay his rift with India.

周五晚些时候，特朗普试图淡化他与印度的分歧。

“I’ll always be friends with Modi. He’s great,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I just don’t like what he’s doing at this particular moment. But India and the United States have a special relationship. There’s nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion.”

“我永远是莫迪的朋友。他很棒，”特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者说。“我只是不喜欢他在此刻的某些做法。但是印度和美国有着特殊的关系。没什么好担心的。我们只是偶尔会有这样的摩擦。”

Devashish Mitra, a professor of economics at Syracuse University, said that Mr. Trump’s oscillating statements about India underscore the country’s concerns about its relationship with the United States.

雪城大学经济学教授德瓦什·米特拉表示，特朗普关于印度反复无常的声明令印度对印美关系的担忧更加清晰。

“Right now, India feels that the U.S. is not a very reliable partner,” Mr. Mitra said. “They thought the U.S. was an ally. If India is moving towards China, it’s a friendship of convenience.”

“现在，印度觉得美国不是一个非常可靠的合作伙伴，”米特拉说。“他们曾认为美国是盟友。如果印度向中国靠拢，那也只是一种权宜之交。”

印度总理莫迪在天津举行的峰会上与俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平交谈。

In his social media post, the American president made no mention of his own role in alienating India. But while Russia and China have been growing closer for years, the shift in the relationship with India has been on Mr. Trump’s watch — and in large part because of his own actions.

在这篇社交媒体帖子中，美国总统没有提到他自己在疏远印度方面的责任。然而，尽管俄中关系日益密切已有多年，但印美关系的转变发生在特朗普任内——而且在很大程度上是因为他自己的行为。

In open pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, Mr. Trump claimed that he had “solved” the military conflict between India and Pakistan, angering New Delhi, which denies he had anything to do with a recent cease-fire between the two countries. It’s long been of the utmost importance in Indian politics that outside countries play no role in the delicate relationship between New Delhi and Islamabad.

特朗普公开寻求诺贝尔和平奖，声称是他“解决”了印度和巴基斯坦之间的军事冲突，这激怒了新德里，印度否认他与两国最近的停火有任何关系。在印度政治中，绝不容许外部势力介入新德里与伊斯兰堡之间微妙关系的原则历来具有至高重要性。

On top of that, Mr. Trump imposed heavy tariffs on India that he says were partly a punishment for purchasing oil from Russia. But China is a larger importer of Russian oil, and Mr. Trump has not imposed a similar tariff on Beijing, presumably because it has so many ways of striking back.

雪上加霜的是，特朗普对印度征收了高额关税，他说这在一定程度上是对印度从俄罗斯购买石油的惩罚。但中国从俄罗斯进口的石油更多，特朗普却没有对北京征收类似的关税，大概是因为中国拥有诸多反制手段的缘故。

“President Trump likes to back his allies into a corner and then use that leverage to extract concessions,” said Joshua T. White, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “Even if he succeeds in doing so with Prime Minister Modi, it could leave lasting scars on a relationship that is undeniably consequential to the United States.”

“特朗普总统喜欢把盟友逼到墙角，然后利用这种筹码迫使他们让步，”约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院教授约书亚·怀特说。“即便他成功对莫迪总理施展这种手段，也会给美印关系留下持久创伤——而这段关系对美国的重要性毋庸置疑。”

Mr. Trump learned strong-arm negotiation tactics during his ascent in the New York real estate world, and he has successfully used them to take over the G.O.P. And while many countries have rushed to sign trade deals, visit the White House and lavish praise and gifts upon Mr. Trump, some of the White House’s attempts to pressure other countries appear to have backfired, sending would-be allies into the embrace of China.

特朗普在纽约房地产界崛起的过程中学会了强硬的谈判策略，并成功地利用这些策略控制了共和党。尽管许多国家急于签署贸易协议、拜访白宫并向特朗普献上溢美之辞与厚礼，但白宫向另一些国家施压的举措似乎适得其反，反而将潜在的盟友推向了中国的怀抱。

The biggest evidence of how Mr. Trump has pushed countries that have been fundamentally pro-American into China’s camp came at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting this week. That is where Mr. Modi, visiting China for the first time in seven years, held hands and laughed with Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, and held a long conversation with the Russian leader in the back of his Russian-built luxury limousine.

特朗普如何将那些本质上曾经亲美的国家推入中国阵营，最有力的证据出现在上周的上海合作组织会议上。七年来首次访华的莫迪与普京和习近平握手谈笑，并在俄罗斯领导人那辆俄制豪华轿车后座上与之进行了长时间交谈。

But he was hardly alone. The leaders of Egypt, Turkey and Vietnam, all of which have been hit by the Trump tariffs, were also at the meeting. Each has been a significant, if sometimes reluctant, partner of the United States. And Mr. Trump has alienated Brazil, largely out of pique over the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he views as a political ally. Mr. Trump has punished South Africa, another nation the U.S. had grown closer with, after complaining that white South Africans were being discriminated against by a new land law. At a moment when he is expelling illegal immigrants, he has invited the white South Africans to come to the United States.

但他并非孤例。埃及、土耳其和越南的领导人也参加了该会议，这些国家都受到了特朗普关税的打击。它们都是美国重要的合作伙伴，尽管偶尔显得态度有所保留。特朗普疏远了巴西，主要是出于对前总统博尔索纳罗受审的愤怒，他认为博尔索纳罗是自己的政治盟友。特朗普还惩罚了另一个曾与美国日益密切的国家南非，此前特朗普抱怨南非白人受到新土地法的歧视。在驱逐非法移民的同时，他邀请南非白人来美国。

普京总统、习近平主席与朝鲜领导人金正恩上周三在北京人民大会堂出席纪念第二次世界大战结束80周年活动。

Mr. Trump’s post was a change in tone from earlier this week, when he sounded nonchalant about China’s military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of the World War II. Even so, Mr. Trump made clear he was paying close attention to the gathering of world leaders. On Tuesday night, he sarcastically posted for Mr. Xi to “give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”

特朗普此次的帖子与上周早些时候的语气有所不同，当时他对中国在北京举行的庆祝“二战”结束80周年阅兵式显得漠不关心。即便如此，他明确表示，他正在密切关注这一世界各国领导人的聚会。上周二晚间，他讽刺性地发文要求习近平“请向与你一起密谋对抗美利坚合众国的弗拉基米尔·普京和金正恩转达我最诚挚的问候”。

It was one of the first times that the president had acknowledged the alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — one of the biggest geopolitical developments of recent years. Until now, the administration had largely dismissed the alignment of these powers or spoke about vague desires to pull Russia away from China, perhaps exploiting their long-running rivalry. If anything, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi seem closer than ever; they spent the better part of three days together. When Mr. Trump met Mr. Putin in Anchorage last month, the session was cut short after a little more than three hours, and the Russian leader left without sampling the seafood lunch the White House had prepared.

这是总统第一次公开承认俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和朝鲜结盟——这是近年来最大的地缘政治演变之一。此前，本届政府在很大程度上对这些大国的结盟轻描淡写，要么只是含糊其辞地表示希望把俄罗斯从中国身边拉开，或许还能利用它们长期以来的竞争关系。但是普京和习近平似乎比以往任何时候都更加亲密；他们在一起度过了三天的大部分时间。上个月，特朗普在安克雷奇与普京会面时，仅仅三个多小时便草草收场，俄罗斯领导人没有品尝白宫准备的海鲜午餐就离开了。

There is little question that the approach Mr. Trump has taken over the past seven months in office has helped drive this aggregation of aggrieved states. These forces were at work before he took office for his second term, but they are accelerating as nations and leaders look for alternatives to tying themselves to the American camp.

毫无疑问，特朗普执政七个月来的行事方式助推了这些受挫国家的聚合。在他开始第二任期之前，这些力量就已经开始发挥作用，但随着各国和各国领导人寻求摆脱对美依赖的替代方案，这种趋势正在加速。

In that regard, the scenes that emerged from China this week are a warning that a reshaping of power is already underway, and America needs a strategy to deal with it.

就此而言，上周中国出现的种种情况是一个警示：权力格局的重塑已经开始，美国需要制定应对战略。

The former Biden officials Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, writing in Foreign Affairs this week, warned that strained U.S.-India relations could cede the innovation edge to China.

前拜登政府官员库尔特·坎贝尔和杰克·沙利文上周在《外交事务》上撰文警告，美印关系紧张可能会导致把创新优势拱手让给中国。

“The current trajectory risks a split that would be difficult to mend, to the great detriment of both countries,” they warned. “As Modi’s chummy appearance over the weekend with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear, the United States could end up driving India directly into its adversaries’ arms.”

“目前的发展轨迹可能导致难以修补的分裂，对两国都造成巨大损害，”他们警告说。“正如莫迪周末与中国国家主席习近平、俄罗斯总统普京亲密会晤所表明的，美国最终可能将印度直接推向对手的怀抱。”

Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said India was not keen to form a partnership with China.

新德里尼赫鲁大学国际政治学教授拉杰什·拉贾戈帕兰表示，印度并不热衷于与中国建立伙伴关系。

The two countries recently had a deadly skirmish over their shared border, and China has blocked India’s push for inclusion on the U.N. Security Council.

两国前不久在边界问题上发生了致命冲突，而且中国一直阻挠印度加入联合国安理会的努力。

“The U.S. hasn’t really lost India,” Mr. Rajagopalan said. “Trump is trying very hard, obviously, to push India away, because, obviously, the claims that he’s making are difficult for any Indian leadership to accept. But outside of that, I think India is very keen on having a close relationship with the United States. If he wants India, he can get it back.”

“美国并没有真正失去印度，”拉贾戈帕兰说。“特朗普分明正在极力推开印度，因为他提出的主张显然对任何印度领导人来说都很难接受。但除此之外，我认为印度非常希望与美国建立密切的关系。如果特朗普想要挽回印度，他可以做到。”