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再迎牛市:人工智能推动中国股市上涨

MEAGHAN TOBIN

2025年10月9日

Jason Lee/Reuters

Last year, investors in Chinese stocks lurched between euphoria and disappointment as the market swerved in response to the government’s attempts to kick-start growth in China’s sluggish economy.

去年,随着中国政府试图拉动低迷经济增长的努力在市场掀起波澜,中国股市的投资者在狂喜失望之间反复摇摆。

Now, China’s stock markets are in the midst of another bullish run. Analysts and investors say that this time, rather than being driven mainly by policy changes, the moves are linked to a trend that is also pushing up stocks in the United States and elsewhere: artificial intelligence.

如今,中国股市正迎来又一轮牛市行情。分析师与投资者表示,这一次,行情的主要驱动力不再是政策的变化,而是一股与推高美国及其他地区股市相同的趋势——人工智能。

“There has been a resetting of expectations around what the government will and won’t do to stimulate the economy,” said Eric Wong, the founder of Stillpoint Investments, a hedge fund. “That has enabled people to be more comfortable to put money into parts of the economy where they think there is outsized growth.”

“市场对政府会采取以及不会采取哪些经济刺激措施的预期已经重新校准,”对冲基金Stillpoint投资的创始人埃里克·黄(音)表示,“这让投资者更愿意将资金投入他们认为增长潜力巨大的经济领域。”

The share prices of companies that play a major role in China’s A.I. industry have grown by triple digits this year. Alibaba, which makes widely used open source A.I. systems, has gained more than 120 percent this year. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, China’s most advanced chipmaker, is up even more, around 180 percent. Other Chinese tech stocks, including Baidu, Tencent and Xiaomi, are up around 60 percent this year.

今年,在中国人工智能产业中扮演重要角色的企业股价都实现了三位数增长。阿里巴巴推出了广受欢迎的开源人工智能系统,今年其股价涨幅已超120%;中国最先进的芯片制造商中芯国际涨幅更高,约为180%。百度、腾讯、小米等其他中国科技股今年涨幅也均在60%左右。

By comparison, Nvidia, the U.S. chipmaker whose central role in the A.I. boom has made it the most valuable public company in the world, is up about 40 percent this year.

相比之下,在人工智能热潮中占据核心地位、成为全球市值最高上市公司的美国芯片制造商英伟达今年股价涨幅约为40%。

03Biz China Tech Rally 01 bpvk master1050阿里巴巴在中国杭州的总部。

The A.I.-driven rally in tech stocks has exerted an enormous influence on broad market indexes in China, as it has in the United States. The MSCI China Index, which tracks the country’s largest companies, has notched gains for five straight months. The index is up more than 40 percent this year, greatly outpacing a similar index for U.S. stocks, which is up about 15 percent.

与美国市场类似,人工智能推动的科技股涨势对中国整体市场指数产生了巨大影响。追踪中国大型企业的明晟(MSCI)中国指数已连续五个月上涨,今年涨幅超40%,远超美国同类股指约15%的涨幅。

The Chinese index has become dominated by tech companies, with Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi, the three largest components, accounting for about 30 percent of the benchmark. In America, the top three stocks are Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple, worth about a fifth of that index.

中国指数已由科技企业主导,其中腾讯、阿里巴巴、小米这三大成分股合计占该基准指数权重约30%。而在美国,排名前三的英伟达、微软、苹果合计占比约20%。

For years, China’s stock markets were among the worst performing in the world. Then, in September last year, shares surged after the government encouraged banks to lend more to buyers of stocks and real estate.

多年来,中国股市一直是全球表现最差的股市之一。直到去年9月,政府鼓励银行向股票和房地产购房者增加放贷后才推动股价飙升。

In January, stocks began to rally again after the Chinese start-up DeepSeek jolted the tech world with its claim that it created a powerful A.I. model that was significantly cheaper to build than the offerings of its better-funded American rivals.

今年1月,中国初创企业深度求索宣称研发出一款性能强劲的人工智能模型,且其构建成本远低于资金更雄厚的美国竞争对手,这一消息震动科技界,股市随之开始新一轮上涨。

Since then, Alibaba has released multiple popular A.I. models. Open source A.I. systems made by Chinese companies consistently rank among the top performing in the world. Chinese companies with significant A.I. and cloud businesses, including ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei, have poured money into infrastructure like data centers.

自那以后,阿里巴巴推出了多款广受欢迎的AI模型;中国企业开发的开源AI系统始终位居全球性能排名前列。字节跳动、阿里巴巴、腾讯、华为等拥有庞大人工智能及云业务的中国企业向数据中心等基础设施投入大量资金。

The Chinese government, too, has financed A.I. infrastructure and hardware, including data centers, high-capacity servers and semiconductors, as part of a push to become self-sufficient in advanced technologies.

作为推动先进技术自主发展的举措之一,中国政府也为数据中心、高容量服务器和半导体等人工智能基础设施及硬件提供了资金支持。

China “has strong national policy support, vast data resources, sufficient power supply, leading manufacturing capabilities, diverse A.I. application scenarios and a fiercely competitive private sector,” said Winnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at BofA Global Research, a unit of Bank of America. She described China as the “global runner-up in A.I.”

“中国拥有强有力的国家政策支持、庞大的数据资源、充足的电力供应、领先的制造能力、多样的人工智能应用场景,以及竞争激烈的私营部门,”美国银行旗下的美银全球研究首席中国股票策略师吴旖表示。她称中国为“全球人工智能领域的亚军”。

03Biz China Tech Rally 02 bpvk master1050上海车展上的小米汽车。中国基准股指目前科技股权重显著提升,腾讯、阿里巴巴和小米三家企业合计占该指数市值约30%。

China’s contest with the United States for primacy over A.I. has only added to the bullish feeling, some investors say. In July, Nvidia said the U.S. government would allow it to restart sales of a China-specific chip.

部分投资者称,中美在人工智能领域的主导权之争进一步推动了市场的看涨情绪。今年7月,英伟达表示美国政府将允许其重启面向中国市场的特供芯片销售。

But Chinese regulators have doubled down on a directive for companies building data centers to buy domestic chips instead. China’s stock markets took that “as a signal that China wants to build its own ecosystem,” said Mr. Wong of Stillpoint Investments.

但中国监管机构已加大力度推行一项指令,要求建设数据中心的企业采购国产芯片。Stillpoint投资的埃里克·黄表示,中国股市将此视为“中国有意构建自主生态系统的信号”。

Initial public offerings by Chinese tech companies, once blockbusters on Wall Street, have slowed in recent years as the relations between China and America deteriorated. And in China, the pace of domestic listings dipped as Beijing pushed to assert greater control over the market.

中国科技企业赴美上市曾是华尔街的重头戏,但随着中美关系恶化,近年来这类IPO已大幅放缓。而在中国国内,由于政府加强对市场的管控,本土上市节奏也有所放缓。

The recent market momentum is attracting interest from Chinese tech companies looking to go public in Shanghai or Hong Kong.

近期的市场势头正吸引着有意在上海或香港上市的中国科技企业。

Last week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange approved the listing of Moore Threads, a Chinese semiconductor company. Unitree Robotics, a start-up based in the tech hub of Hangzhou, said last month that it would pursue a listing by the end of the year.

上周,上海证券交易所批准了中国半导体企业摩尔线程的上市申请;总部位于科技重镇杭州的初创企业宇树科技上月表示,计划在今年年底前启动上市程序。

Vey-Sern Ling, an equities adviser based in Singapore at the private bank Union Bancaire Privé, said, “For any Chinese tech company planning to go to the market right now, Hong Kong would be the clear choice.”

瑞士联合私人银行驻新加坡股票顾问卫森·林(音)表示:“对于目前计划上市的中国科技企业而言,香港无疑是首选之地。”

Xinyun Wu自台北对本文有研究贡献。

Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者,常驻台北,报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻,重点关注中国。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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