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特朗普对华新关税威胁引发全球股市震荡

RIVER AKIRA DAVIS, JASON KARAIAN, JOE RENNISON

2025年10月14日

特朗普总统表示,美国将从11月1日起对所有中国商品征收100%的新关税,并对“所有关键软件”实施出口管制。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times

Global markets diverged on Monday. Stocks in Asia fell in their first reaction to a renewed outbreak of hostility in the trade war between Beijing and Washington, while markets in the United States and Europe rebounded as U.S. officials began to try to cool tensions.

周一,全球市场走势出现分化。亚洲股市对中美贸易战敌意重燃的初步反应是下跌,美国和欧洲市场则因美国官员开始试图缓和紧张局势而出现反弹。

The S&P 500 index rose 1.6 percent on Monday, its biggest rise since May, helping to regain some ground lost in the previous trading session, which had recorded the steepest decline in months.

标准普尔500指数周一上涨1.6%,为5月以来的最大单日涨幅,帮助收复了前一交易日的部分失地,前一交易日该指数录得数月来的最大跌幅

Mr. Trump had posted on social media Friday that he was considering a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese products and threatened to cancel a planned meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Following the sharp market response, however, Mr. Trump and his allies have struck a more diplomatic tone toward China.

特朗普上周五在社交媒体上发文称,他正在考虑对中国商品“大幅提高关税”,并威胁取消与中国国家主席习近平计划中的会面。然而,在市场大幅反应之后,特朗普及其盟友对中国的语气转为更加缓和。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said in an interview on Fox Business on Monday that the two sides had “substantially de-escalated” and played down the possibility of steep new tariffs. Mr. Trump said on social media on Sunday that the United States did not want to “hurt” China, adding that “it will all be fine!”

财政部长贝森特周一对福克斯商业新闻表示,双方已经“大幅缓和”局势,并淡化了征收新的高额关税的可能性。特朗普周日在社交媒体上表示,美国不想“伤害”中国,并说“一切都会好起来的!”

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which is driven by big companies like the chipmaker Nvidia, gained 2.2 percent. Nvidia has been caught up in the fight for technological primacy between the United States and China.

以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨2.2%,该指数由芯片制造商英伟达等大公司驱动。英伟达一直处于中美技术主导权之争的漩涡中。

Markets in Europe also traded mostly higher, with the Stoxx 600 index up slightly.

欧洲市场多数走高,斯托克600指数小幅上涨。

But stocks in Asia fell on Monday — in the first chance for investors to respond to Friday’s development — with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropping roughly 1.5 percent. Benchmark indexes in South Korea and Taiwan fell about 1 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index also declined slightly. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday. Monday’s losses in Asia were less than those in U.S. markets on Friday.

但周一亚洲股市下跌——这是投资者对周五事态发展的首次回应——香港恒生指数下挫约1.5%。韩国和台湾的基准指数下跌约1%,上证指数也略有下跌。日本股市因假期休市。周一亚洲市场的跌幅小于美国市场上周五的跌幅。

Mr. Trump’s latest threats, which included a 100 percent tariff on Chinese products starting on Nov. 1, came in response to China’s announcement that it would curb exports of some rare-earth minerals needed to make high-tech products including semiconductors, electric vehicles and jet fighters.

特朗普的最新威胁包括从11月1日起对中国商品征收100%的关税,此举是对中国宣布将限制出口部分稀土矿物的回应。这些稀土矿物是制造半导体、电动汽车和战斗机等高科技产品的必需原料。

The recent bout of volatility was the most notable since April, when markets plunged after the United States and China announced that they would impose tariffs of more than 100 percent on each others’ goods. They agreed in May to temporarily slash the tariffs, and investors took that move as a sign that their trade conflict was easing.

最近的这轮波动是自4月以来最显著的一次,当时中美宣布将对彼此商品征收超过100%的关税,股市随即暴跌。双方在5月同意暂时降低关税,投资者将此举视为贸易冲突缓和的信号。

 The softening of Mr. Trump’s Friday tariff threat could be seen as another sign that market declines act as a “consistent brake on policymakers,” Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank wrote in a note on Monday. “There are large incentives to avoid sell-offs, and we’ve seen numerous policy reversals under market pressure,” he added.

德意志银行的亨利·艾伦周一在报告中写道,特朗普上周五关税威胁的软化可以被视为市场下跌对政策制定者构成“持续性制约”的又一迹象。他还说:“决策层有强烈动机去避免股市抛售,我们已看到在市场压力下多次出现政策逆转。”

Even so, Beijing’s trade curbs and Mr. Trump’s tariff threats show how quickly calm can give way to confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.

即便如此,北京的贸易限制和特朗普的关税威胁表明,全球两大经济体之间的平静态势能以多快速度演变为对抗

The latest developments “raise the possibility that the two countries could once again enter into a trade war,” said Takahide Kiuchi, the executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo. “If this were to happen, the impact on the global economy would be severe,” he said.

东京野村综合研究所的首席经济学家木内登英表示,最新的事态发展“增加了两国可能再次陷入贸易战的可能性”。他说:“如果发生这种情况,对全球经济的影响将是严重的。”

The key question for investors is whether the threats are serious or merely attempts to gain negotiating leverage ahead of bilateral talks between China and the United States set for later this month, the investment bank Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

投资银行高盛在报告中写道,对投资者来说,关键问题在于,这些威胁究竟是认真的,还是仅仅为了在本月晚些时候的中美双边会谈之前获取谈判筹码。

“We lean toward the latter interpretation and expect the ultimate resolution will be an extension of the current tariff pause,” it said.

报告称:“我们倾向于后一种解读,并预计最终的解决方案将是延长当前的关税暂停期。”

 As of last month, the trade tensions with the United States had not slowed Chinese shipments overseas, according to data released by the Chinese government on Monday. In September, overall exports grew 8.3 percent, compared with a year earlier. Shipments to the United States fell 27 percent, but China offset that downturn with strong exports to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa.

根据中国政府周一发布的数据,截至上月,与美国的贸易紧张局势并未减缓中国的出口 。9月整体出口同比增长8.3%。对美出口下降了27%,但中国对欧盟、东南亚和非洲的强劲出口抵消了这一下降。

Relations between China and Europe took a hit after the Dutch government said late on Sunday that it was taking control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned chipmaker based in the Netherlands, because of “serious governance shortcomings.” Wingtech, the chipmaker’s parent company, said in a filing that it strongly opposed the Dutch government’s action, which it described as driven by “geopolitical bias.” Wingtech’s shares fell 10 percent in Shanghai on Monday.

荷兰政府周日晚些时候表示将接管中资背景的荷兰芯片制造商安世半导体,理由是“严重的管理缺陷”,中欧关系受到冲击。安世半导体的母公司闻泰科技在文件中表示,强烈反对荷兰政府的这一行动,称其由“地缘政治偏见”驱动。周一,闻泰科技的股价在上海下跌了10%。

Investors getting to grips with geopolitics are also gauging the impact of the U.S. government shutdown as it approaches its third week. The closure was “starting to affect the real economy,” Mr. Bessent said on Fox Business.

随着美国政府停摆进入第三周,关注地缘政治的投资者也在评估其影响。贝森特对福克斯商业新闻表示,政府停摆“开始影响实体经济”。

Traders are about to get a batch of information about the state of the U.S. economy from companies’ latest quarterly earnings. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and other economic bellwethers are set to release earnings on Tuesday.

交易员们即将从公司最新的季报中获得美国经济状况的一系列信息。摩根大通、高盛、强生等经济风向标公司将于周二公布财报。

JPMorgan said on Monday that it would facilitate some $1.5 trillion in financing and investments over the next 10 years, focused on industries “critical to national economic security and resiliency” in the United States. “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive, said in a statement.

摩根大通周一表示,将在未来10年促成约1.5万亿美元的融资和投资,重点关注对美国“国家经济安全与韧性至关重要”的行业。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在声明中表示:“我们痛心地看到,美国在关键矿物、产品和制造领域已过度依赖不可靠的供应来源。”

Daisuke Wakabayashi对本文有报道贡献。

River Akira Davis驻东京,报道日本经济和商业新闻。

Jason Karaian是驻伦敦的商业新闻总监。他曾担任“交易录”(DealBook)编辑。

Joe Rennison撰写有关金融市场的报道,内容涵盖从记录股票市场的变幻莫测到解释华尔街内部人士常常难以捉摸的交易决策。

翻译:晋其角

点击查看本文英文版。

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