China’s decision to tighten export controls on rare earth metals was not only about strengthening its grip on the world’s supply of the crucial minerals. It was also a high-stakes ploy to jolt President Trump into paying attention to what Beijing felt were attempts by his subordinates to sabotage a U.S.-China détente, analysts say.

分析人士认为，中国决定加强对稀土金属的出口管制，不仅是为了加强其对全球关键矿产供应的掌控，也是一种高风险策略，目的是促使特朗普总统关注北京认为的特朗普下属阻挠美中缓和关系的企图。

Evidently, it worked: Mr. Trump has redirected his focus toward trade with China. But China’s move also unnerved governments and businesses in Europe, and sparked another round of tit-for-tat trade blows, rattling stock markets.

显然，这一策略奏效了：特朗普已将注意力重新转向与中国的贸易问题。但中国的这一举动也让欧洲各国政府和企业感到不安，并引发了新一轮的贸易报复，导致股市动荡。

Days after Mr. Trump said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods next month, China added five American subsidiaries of a South Korean shipping company to its sanctions list. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump threatened to cut off U.S. purchases of Chinese cooking oil.

在特朗普表示下个月将对中国商品征收100%关税的几天后，中国将一家韩国航运公司的五家美国子公司列入了制裁名单。周二，特朗普威胁要切断美国对中国食用油的采购。

By Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the U.S. government would counter Chinese economic measures by exerting more control over private American businesses in key strategic sectors.

到周三，财政部长贝森特表示，美国政府将通过对关键战略领域的美国私营企业实施更多控制，来应对中国的经济措施。

The escalating tensions threaten to wipe out any progress the two sides have made in the past five months to roll back punitive measures they had taken against each other. They also raise the question of whether Beijing pushed its strategy too far by making clear that China will use the minerals as a geopolitical weapon.

双方过去五个月里在取消各自的惩罚性措施上所取得的进展可能在不断升级的紧张局势下化为乌有。这也引发了一个问题：北京明确表示将把稀土作为一种地缘政治武器，是否导致其策略用力过猛？

中国包头市，一个因稀土开采而枯竭的湖泊，湖中堆积着开采稀土后剩余的矿渣。背景中可见稀土精炼厂、钢铁厂和化工厂。

China was reacting to a Sept. 29 decision by the U.S. Department of Commerce to expand the number of companies, including potentially Chinese ones, blacklisted from acquiring American technology. That move surprised Beijing, which thought the countries had reached a truce in their trade war after four rounds of negotiations and a Sept. 19 phone call between Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, and Mr. Trump, Chinese analysts said.

中国此举是对美国商务部9月29日决定的回应。该决定扩大了禁止收购美国技术的黑名单企业范围，其中可能包括中国企业。中国问题分析人士称，这一举动让北京感到意外，在经过四轮谈判以及中国领导人习近平与特朗普9月19日的电话通话后，北京认为两国在贸易战中已达成休战。

Flexing China’s control over rare earths — akin to poking Mr. Trump in the eye — may also have been intended by Mr. Xi to demonstrate his strength to a domestic audience before a crucial meeting of Communist Party leaders next week.

习近平此举可能还意在向国内民众展示实力——在中共高层的下周关键会议前夕，通过展示中国对稀土的掌控力——此举就像直戳特朗普的眼睛——彰显自身力量。

“If you are the leader and you just had a phone conversation” with the U.S. president, “and then 10 days later, they slapped you on your face, what would you do ahead of a major political event?” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“如果你是领导人，你刚刚和美国总统通了电话，”复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯说，“然后过了10天，他们打了你的脸，在一场重大政治活动之前，你会怎么做？”

Chinese state media have hailed rare earths as the ultimate weapon in trade negotiations with the United States, with one television commentator saying the restrictions dealt a “fatal blow.”

中国官方媒体称赞稀土是与美国贸易谈判中的终极武器，一位电视评论员称这些限制措施是“致命一击”。

9月，美国财政部长贝森特在马德里与中国国务院副总理何立峰举行贸易会谈后接受媒体采访。

Analysts who have spoken to Chinese officials said that Beijing believed that the Commerce Department move — which would target thousands of Chinese companies — was the work of hawkish members of the Trump administration. The sense in Beijing was that Mr. Trump, who was focused on Gaza peace talks and the U.S. government shutdown, needed to be made aware of the consequences of these moves.

与中国官员交谈过的分析人士表示，北京认为，美国商务部的这一举措——将针对数以千计的中国公司——是特朗普政府中鹰派成员所为。北京的感觉是，专注于加沙和平谈判和美国政府停摆的特朗普需要意识到这些举措的后果。

“By launching a very strong counterattack on the U.S. side, Beijing is reminding Donald Trump that you have to take a hands-on approach to relations with China” and not let “hawkish people” derail relations between the two countries, Professor Wu said.

“通过对美方发起非常强烈的反击，北京正在提醒唐纳德·特朗普，必须亲自处理与中国的关系”，而不是放任“鹰派人士”破坏两国关系，吴心伯说。

Beijing was particularly aggrieved because it felt it had shown good will to the Trump administration by agreeing to allow the sale of TikTok, the analysts said.

分析人士称，北京尤其感到忿忿不平的是，它觉得已经通过同意允许出售TikTok向特朗普政府展示了善意。

The question now is whether Beijing’s gambit will succeed in getting the Trump administration to back down, or if it results in a full-blown trade war that could lead to a global slowdown. Already, it has led to a broader backlash, with the European Union trade commissioner accusing China of weaponizing its hold on the minerals and urging the European bloc to coordinate with Group of 7 nations to push back against the restrictions.

现在的问题是，北京这一策略是否会成功让特朗普政府退缩，或是导致一场全面的贸易战，进而可能引发全球经济放缓。此举已经引起了更广泛的反弹，欧盟贸易专员指责中国将其对稀土的控制武器化，并敦促欧盟与七国集团统一行动，反对这些限制措施。

“The Chinese miscalculated,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who is currently visiting Beijing. “People around the world saw the rules and were shocked and considered it an overreaction.”

“中国误判了形势，”目前正在北京访问的华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。“全世界看到这些规定都感到震惊，认为这是一种过度反应。”

For China, threatening to cut off access to its rare earth minerals has been its ace card against the United States.

对中国来说，威胁切断稀土供应一直是其对抗美国的王牌。

Beijing controls most of the world’s supply of those metals, which are needed for virtually every modern-day technology, including semiconductors, robots and jets. Earlier this year, the same tactic helped persuade the Trump administration to suspend its threat to impose sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods.

北京控制着世界上大部分稀土金属供应，而稀土几乎是所有现代科技中的必需品，包括半导体、机器人和喷气式飞机。今年早些时候，同样的策略帮助说服特朗普政府暂停了对中国商品征收高额关税的威胁。

本月抵达加利福尼亚州奥克兰港的一艘集装箱船。

But this time, China went a step further. It extended its controls extraterritorially, meaning that exporters anywhere in the world would have to apply for a license to sell products with even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths.

但这一次，中国更进一步。它将控制范围扩大到了域外，这意味着世界上任何地方的出口商如果要销售哪怕含有微量中国稀土的产品，都必须申请许可证。

It is probably not a coincidence that China is taking such an assertive posture ahead of a Communist Party meeting to lay out the blueprint for the country’s plan for the coming five years.

中国在一场共产党会议前夕采取如此强硬的姿态，很可能并非巧合，这次会议将为国家未来五年的计划制定蓝图。

Chinese leaders typically want to project stability and strength during the meetings to burnish their legitimacy, analysts say.

分析人士称，中国领导人通常希望在会议期间展现稳定和实力，以彰显其执政合法性。

“You have to respond strongly so that you can — I wouldn’t say save face — but you have to consolidate your political position and show to a domestic audience that you are strong enough to protect China’s national interests in the face of the provocation,” Prof. Wu added.

“你必须做出强烈回应，这样你才能——我不会说挽回面子——但你必须巩固政治地位，并向国内民众表明，面对挑衅，你有足够的力量捍卫中国的国家利益，”吴心伯说。

With tensions heating up again, it is unclear if Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea later this month, as had been anticipated.

随着紧张局势再次升温，目前尚不清楚特朗普和习近平是否会像预期的那样，本月晚些时候在于韩国举行的亚太经合组织峰会期间进行会晤。

韩国总统李在明于8月在费城一家由韩华集团拥有的造船厂发表讲话。该集团是韩国一家综合企业集团，已被中国政府列入黑名单。

Both sides continued to up the ante in the past week. They began charging higher port entry fees for each other’s shipping firms. The Chinese government blacklisted five American subsidiaries of the South Korean shipping company Hanwha, accusing the subsidiaries of “supporting and assisting” the United States in its moves in the shipbuilding industry.

在过去一周，双方继续升级对抗。两国开始对彼此的航运公司收取更高的港口准入费。中国政府将韩国韩华集团的五家美国子公司列入黑名单，指控这些子公司“支持和协助”美国在造船业的行动。

Mr. Trump said in a Truth Social post that Beijing was harming American soybean farmers. He threatened to restrict more trade with China, including by boycotting Chinese cooking oil.

特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，北京正在伤害美国大豆农民。他威胁要限制更多与中国的贸易，包括抵制中国食用油。

U.S. analysts say that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce appeared to be aware that it may have overreached, as the ministry sought to reassure the world that the new controls would not be used widely and did not represent a blanket ban, even as it vowed to fight back against any tariffs.

美国分析人士称，中国商务部似乎意识到自己可能采取了过度措施，因为商务部试图向世界保证，新的管制措施不会广泛使用，也不代表全面禁令，同时它发誓要对任何关税进行反击。

China was overly confident that it could get Washington to walk back its latest sanctions and, at the same time, avert any global blowback, analysts said.

分析人士称，中国过于自信，认为自己能够让华盛顿撤回其最新的制裁措施，同时避免任何全球范围的反弹。

本月，马里兰州科尔多瓦市一片即将收割的大豆田旁，一位农民正准备收割。中国曾是美国大豆出口的最大买家，如今却暂停了订单。

But China can ill afford more trade tensions on top of its existing troubles with the United States. Exports are among the few engines of growth for a Chinese economy suffering from a prolonged property crisis and a deflationary spiral, caused by overproduction in key industries and falling prices.

然而，在中美关系本已存在诸多问题的情况下，中国也承受不起更多的贸易紧张局势。面对关键产业产能过剩和价格下跌引发的长期房地产危机与通缩螺旋，出口是中国经济为数不多的增长动力之一。

Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama, said China could have pushed back without threatening economic coercion against its geopolitical rivals.

乔治敦大学亚洲研究教授、前奥巴马总统亚洲顾问麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)表示，中国本可以在不威胁对其地缘政治对手进行经济胁迫的情况下进行反击。

“This is a hell of a way to get Trump’s attention,” Prof. Medeiros said. “You get somebody’s attention by waving your hands in the air, not by arming yourself to the teeth and just promising you’re not going to use a 50-caliber machine gun on them.”

“这是一种吸引特朗普关注的糟糕方式，”麦艾文说。“你应该通过在空中挥手来引起别人的注意，而不是先全副武装，然后保证你不会用50口径的机枪对付别人。”

The new rare earths export controls, which are modeled after U.S. export controls, were likely developed well in advance of their unveiling, experts said. Some analysts say that suggests Beijing was merely looking for a pretext — like the new Commerce Department rules — to deploy the new measures.

专家表示，仿照了美国出口管制措施的新稀土出口管制措施很可能是早已制定好的。一些分析人士认为，这表明北京只是在寻找一个借口——比如商务部的新规定——来实施这些新措施。

“Xi fundamentally doesn’t want to give the U.S. rare earths, or really any ‘strategic materials’ it has,” said Kirsten Asdal, head of the China-focused consultancy firm Asdal Advisory. “The party has articulated that the country that controls the upstream inputs will enjoy the ability to develop the most advanced technology and keep it from others.”

“习近平从根本上不想把稀土——或者说它拥有的任何‘战略物资’提供给美国，”研究中国问题的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询负责人柯尔斯滕·阿斯达尔说。“中共已经明确表示，控制了上游输入的国家将有能力开发最先进的技术，并阻止其他国家获得这些技术。”