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“安美经中”难以为继,韩国陷入中美对抗漩涡

DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI

2025年10月28日

特朗普总统与韩国总统李在明于8月在椭圆形办公室会晤。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

When South Korea’s newly elected president, Lee Jae Myung, visited Washington in August, he was asked about anmigyeongjung, the nation’s well-established policy of maintaining strategic neutrality between the United States and China.

今年8月,韩国新当选总统李在明访问华盛顿期间,被问及韩国长期奉行的“安美经中”(anmigyeongjung)政策——该国在中美之间保持战略中立的既定方针。

The Korean phrase, loosely translated as “the United States for security and China for the economy,” refers to how the country must balance its reliance on America for national defense and the economic importance of China as a critical market for South Korean companies.

这一韩语表述大致可译为“安保靠美国,经济靠中国”,指韩国在国防上依赖美国、经济上则需依托作为韩国企业关键市场的中国,并在二者之间寻求平衡状态。

But the intensifying U.S.-Chinese competition makes it hard for South Korea to count on both. “It is no longer possible to maintain that type of logic,” Mr. Lee said. Increasingly, South Korea must choose, and it has not been in a position to deviate from the policies of the United States, he acknowledged.

中美竞争加剧让韩国难以再兼顾两者。“如今已不可能再继续维持那种逻辑了,”李在明表示。他承认,韩国正被迫做出选择,且目前无法偏离美国的政策方向。

Like many countries confronted with a more fragmented global economy, South Korea has been thrust into the middle of an acrimonious trade war, forced into a no-win position navigating export controls, sanctions and tariffs.

与全球经济碎片化背景下的许多国家一样,韩国被卷入激烈的贸易战,在出口管制、制裁与关税的夹缝中陷入两难境地。

Now the dilemma is especially thorny for South Korea. It maintains its critical alliance with the United States, even as it is struggling to meet President Trump’s onerous demands to complete a trade deal that the two countries agreed to in principle in July.

如今韩国的困境尤为棘手。它既要维系与美国的关键同盟关系,同时还需应对特朗普总统提出的苛刻要求——完成两国7月原则上达成的贸易协议

On the other side, its giant neighbor, China, is the main target of Mr. Trump’s economic grievances. It is also South Korea’s largest trading partner, accounting for a quarter of its exports when Hong Kong is included.

另一方面,中国这个庞大的邻国既是特朗普经济不满的主要目标,也是韩国最大的贸易伙伴。若计入香港,中国占韩国出口总额的四分之一。

Ahead of an expected meeting this week between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, on South Korean soil at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Seoul has been confronted with the heavy cost of siding with the United States.

预计本周特朗普将与中国最高领导人习近平将在韩国举行的亚太经合组织峰会期间会面,在此之前,韩国已感受到站队美国的沉重代价。

This month, five U.S. subsidiaries of the South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean were hit with sanctions from China, which accused the company of “supporting and assisting” the United States in its investigation into the trade practices of the Chinese shipbuilding industry. Hanwha acquired a shipyard in Philadelphia last year for $100 million. It was expected to be at the forefront of Mr. Trump’s initiative to use foreign investment to revitalize the American shipbuilding industry.

本月,韩国造船企业韩华海洋的五家美国子公司遭到中国制裁。中国指控该公司“支持并协助”美国调查中国造船业的贸易行为。韩华海洋去年以1亿美元收购了美国费城的一家造船厂,原本有望成为特朗普借助外国投资重振美国造船业计划的核心力量。

28Biz Skorea US 03 zlgm master1050李在明8月在费城韩华造船厂,身旁是宾夕法尼亚州州长乔希·夏皮罗。

“That was a wake-up call,” said Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow and the Korea chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies. “That’s a pressure point that I don’t think South Korea expected.”

“这无疑是一记警钟,”布鲁金斯学会东亚政策研究中心高级研究员、韩国项目主任吕寅晔(Andrew Yeo)表示,“我认为这一施压点超出了韩国的预期。”

When South Korea and the United States were discussing investments in American shipbuilding, the Chinese Communist Party-controlled Global Times warned in a July editorial that it was “a high-risk gamble” to believe that “geopolitics can overturn economic principles,” citing the prolonged decline of U.S. shipbuilding.

早在韩美讨论美国造船业投资事宜时,中国共产党旗下的《环球时报》就在7月的评论文章中警告,称“地缘政治能颠覆经济规律”是“高风险赌博”,并提及美国造船业的长期衰退趋势。

A few weeks later, Global Times published another editorial warning South Korea that if a ship carrying the country’s logo was involved in U.S. military action against a third country, it “could potentially cause trouble” and that it should be “wary of such a scenario.”

几周后,《环球时报》再发评论警告韩国,称若有悬挂韩国标识的船只参与美国对第三国的军事行动,“可能引发麻烦,”并提醒韩国“警惕此类情况发生”。

When China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the sanctions on Hanwha, the ministry said they were necessary because the company’s cooperation with the U.S. government was endangering Chinese “sovereignty, security and development interests.”

中国商务部宣布制裁韩华海洋时表示,该公司与美国政府的合作危及中国“主权、安全、发展利益”,因此制裁势在必行。

Under Yoon Suk Yeol, Mr. Lee’s predecessor, who was impeached and ousted after declaring martial law, South Korea was already redirecting its economic focus toward the United States. This shift was especially pronounced under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., when the United States offered investment subsidies to South Korean companies to set up American factories.

李在明的前任尹锡悦在宣布军事管制后遭弹劾下台,在尹锡悦执政期间,韩国已开始将经济重心转向美国。在拜登总任内,这一转变尤为明显,当时美国为吸引韩国企业赴美建厂,提供了投资补贴。

As it feels the squeeze from China, South Korea is also finding that its pledges of deeper economic ties with the United States have done little to curry favor with the Trump administration.

如今韩国感受到中国的压力,同时也发现,即便承诺深化与美国的经济联系,也未能赢得特朗普政府的青睐。

Under the preliminary trade deal struck in July, South Korea agreed to invest $350 billion in the United States and spend $100 billion on liquefied natural gas. In exchange, Mr. Trump agreed to lower tariffs to 15 percent from an initially announced 25 percent — a critical concession for South Korea’s automobile manufacturers.

根据7月达成的初步贸易协议,韩国同意对美投资3500亿美元,并斥资1000亿美元采购液化天然气。作为交换,特朗普同意将最初宣布的25%关税降至15%——这对韩国汽车制造商而言是关键让步。

But over the ensuing three months, Seoul has balked at some of the demands from the White House. Without a final agreement in place, the United States has not lowered the tariff. South Korea expected the bulk of the $350 billion in investments to be loans and loan guarantees, but Mr. Trump has pushed for cash investments — similar to the U.S. agreement with Japan.

但在随后的三个月里,韩国政府对白宫的部分要求犹豫不决。由于最终协议尚未敲定,美国尚未下调关税。韩国原本期望,3500亿美元投资中大部分以贷款和贷款担保形式实现,但特朗普却要求以现金投资为主——与美国和日本达成的协议类似。

However, South Korea has said cash investments of that magnitude could destabilize its currency. It has asked the Trump administration for currency swaps to minimize volatility in the foreign exchange market and prevent a collapse of the South Korean won.

然而韩国表示,如此规模的现金投资可能导致本国货币动荡。它已请求特朗普政府提供货币互换安排,平抑外汇市场波动并防止韩元崩盘。

28Biz Skorea US 02 zlgm master1050韩国韩华集团造船厂去年在巨济岛为一艘美国海军舰艇进行大修,这是该公司发布的一张照片。

Despite a last-minute scramble by South Korean officials to secure a pact before the summit on its home turf, and continued assurances from both countries that a deal is imminent, there is still no final agreement.

尽管韩国官员在本土举办峰会前紧急斡旋,试图促成协议,且两国仍不断承诺“协议即将达成”,但目前仍未敲定最终版本。

Chosun Ilbo, South Korea’s conservative daily newspaper and traditionally an advocate for a strong alliance with the United States, criticized Mr. Trump’s hardball tactics to squeeze concessions from the country and warned that they might push South Korean companies into the arms of China.

韩国保守派日报、向来支持韩美强化同盟的《朝鲜日报》批评特朗普采用强硬手段逼迫韩国让步,并警告此举可能迫使韩国企业倒向中国。

“Trump remains stubbornly tough on America’s allies,” wrote Yang Sang-hoon, the newspaper’s opinion columnist. “To him, the very fact that a country is an ally appears to be a major weakness.”

“特朗普对美国盟友的强硬态度始终未变,”该报评论员杨尚勋(音)写道。“在他看来,一个国家是美国的盟友这一事实本身似乎就是重大软肋。”

Mr. Trump is scheduled to meet with President Lee on Wednesday in South Korea. Mr. Lee lowered expectations for a possible deal before the summit by stating in an interview with CNN that “a considerable amount of time and effort is needed for adjustment and correction” before reaching a final agreement.

特朗普定于周三在韩国与李在明会面。李在明此前接受CNN采访时降低了对峰会前达成协议的预期,称“达成最终协议前,仍需大量时间和努力进行调整与修正”。

South Korea’s semiconductor technology has also become a pawn in the escalating feud between China and the United States. Before Mr. Trump came to office, the United States placed restrictions on exports to China of so-called high-bandwidth memory chips, which are critical for running generative artificial intelligence systems.

在中美日益激烈的博弈中,韩国的半导体技术也沦为棋子。特朗普上任前,美国就已限制向中国出口所谓高带宽存储芯片——这类芯片对运行生成式人工智能系统至关重要。

While the seemingly insatiable demand for A.I. chips will help offset any effect from export controls in the short term, there are potential long-term dangers. Chinese chip makers are receiving significant financial backing from Beijing to close the technological gap with overseas semiconductor firms, seeding the ground for future rivals.

尽管短期内,对人工智能芯片看似无穷的需求或能抵消出口管制的影响,但长期风险依然存在。中国政府正为本土芯片企业提供巨额资金支持,助力其缩小与海外半导体企业的技术差距,为未来培育竞争对手奠定基础。

June Park, a political economist from South Korea, said there was growing concern that Chinese firms would soon catch up to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the two biggest manufacturers of high-bandwidth memory chips.

韩国政治经济学家朴俊(音)表示,业界越来越担心中国企业将很快赶上韩国两大高带宽存储芯片制造商——SK海力士和三星电子。

“The years of catching up may not be that long,” Dr. Park said.

“中国企业追赶所需的时间可能不会太长,”朴俊说。

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