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特朗普核试验威胁可能加剧中美核紧张局势

储百亮

2025年10月30日

周四,韩国釜山,与中国国家主席习近平会晤前的特朗普总统。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

When President Trump called for nuclear testing, shortly before talks with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, he may have inadvertently added a new complication to one of the most difficult issues between their countries: their nuclear weapons rivalry.

在与中国领导人习近平会谈前夕,特朗普总统呼吁恢复核试验,这一举动或许无意间为两国间最棘手的问题之一——核武竞争——增加了新的复杂因素。

Mr. Trump declared on Thursday that “because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis.” His order may have been prompted by a claim by President Vladimir V. Putin, a few days earlier, that Russia had successfully test-flown a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile, even though the test did not involve a detonation.

特朗普于周四宣布:“鉴于其他国家的核试验计划,我已指示战争部开始进行同等的核武器试验。”他的命令可能是受到几天前俄罗斯总统普京的说法所刺激——普京宣称俄罗斯成功试射了一枚核动力、具备核打击能力的巡航导弹,尽管试验并未涉及引爆。

Moves toward renewed explosive tests of nuclear warheads would further endanger the treaty that for decades has constrained all but a handful of countries from carrying them out. If the United States follows through with resuming nuclear testing, “it would effectively give, I think, China and Russia a carte blanche to resume full-yield nuclear testing, which is something that neither country has done in a number of years,” said Ankit Panda, the author of “The New Nuclear Age.”

重启核弹头爆炸性试验的举动将进一步危及一项数十年来一直限制除少数几个国家以外所有国家进行核试验的条约。《新核时代》(The New Nuclear Age)一书的作者安吉特·潘达(Ankit Panda)表示,如果美国真的朝恢复核试验的方向迈进,“那实际上等于给了中国和俄罗斯一张许可,让它们得以重新开展全当量核试验——而这两个国家已经多年未这么做了。”

“The nuclear nonproliferation regime is under tremendous stress at the moment. Russia, China, the United States can’t even agree on the basic principles of what really makes the nonproliferation regime tick,” said Mr. Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“目前,核不扩散机制正面临巨大压力。俄罗斯、中国和美国甚至无法就支撑不扩散机制运转的基本原则达成共识,”作为卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员的潘达说。

Mr. Trump and his administration may clarify his comments in the coming hours or days. Mr. Panda and other experts said Mr. Trump may have meant that he wants to test-launch nuclear-capable missiles, not detonate nuclear devices underground.

特朗普及其政府可能会在未来数小时或数天内进一步澄清其说法。潘达及其他专家表示,特朗普所谓的“核试验”也许指的是试射具备核打击能力的导弹,而非在地下引爆核装置。

When asked later about his remarks on nuclear weapons testing, Mr. Trump suggested that they were not related to China. “It had to do with others,” he said, without naming any countries. “They seem to all be nuclear testing.”

当被问及他关于核试验的言论时,特朗普表示,这与中国无关。“那是关于其他国家的,”他说,但并未点名任何国家。“看起来它们都在进行核试验。”

But Mr. Trump’s combative words alone could reinforce wariness in Beijing about U.S. nuclear intentions. Nuclear weapons are one area where distrust between China and the United States has deepened, with little prospect for quick agreement.

但仅仅是特朗普的强硬言论本身就可能加剧中国政府对美国核意图的警惕。核武器领域是中美互不信任持续加深的领域之一,双方短期内达成共识的可能性极小。

Under Mr. Xi, China has been rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal after decades of maintaining a comparatively modest force. China has about 600 nuclear warheads, most of them designed for land-based missiles, according to a survey published earlier this year by experts at the Federation of American Scientists. That is still far fewer than the thousands of nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia have.

在习近平的领导下,数十年来一直维持着规模相对有限的核力量的中国正迅速扩充其核武库。根据美国科学家联合会专家今年早些时候发布的调查报告,中国目前拥有约600枚核弹头,其中大部分被设计用于陆基导弹,这一数量仍远少于美国和俄罗斯所持有的数千枚核弹头规模。

29trump news china nuclear chlz master1050中国核导弹在9月北京的阅兵式上亮相。

But the speed of China’s buildup, as well as Moscow’s growing threat, has prompted calls in Washington for faster modernization of U.S. nuclear forces to deter two big adversaries.

但中国核力量的扩充速度和俄罗斯日益增长的威胁已经促使华盛顿出现呼声,要求加快美国核力量的现代化进程,威慑这两个主要对手。

“Russia has nearly completed their modernization of all of their nuclear forces, and China is modernizing, and they are growing their arsenal at a breathtaking speed,” Elbridge A. Colby, the undersecretary of defense in the Trump administration, told senators during his confirmation hearing earlier this year.

“俄罗斯几乎已完成其所有核力量的现代化,中国也在推进核力量现代化,其核武库扩充速度惊人,”特朗普政府的国防部次长埃尔布里奇·科尔比在今年早些时候的参议院提名听证会上表示。

China’s next development plan, released in summary this week, calls “strengthened strategic deterrence capabilities” — a term that includes nuclear forces — a military priority for the next five years. And last month, China displayed its growing collection of nuclear-capable missiles, including ones that can be launched from submarines and bomber planes, at a military parade in Beijing.

本周发布的中国下一个发展规划摘要将“壮大战略威慑力量”这一涵盖核力量的表述列为未来五年的军事优先事项。上个月,中国在北京举行的阅兵式上展示了日益壮大的可携带核弹头的导弹,包括可由潜艇和轰炸机发射的型号。

Mr. Xi used the parade to emphasize China’s maturing “nuclear triad,” that is, the ability to threaten enemies with nuclear attack from land, sea and air, said Lin Po-chou, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded group in Taipei, Taiwan.

由政府资助的台北机构国防安全研究院研究员林柏州表示,习近平借此次阅兵强调了中国日趋成熟的“核三位一体”能力,即从陆、海、空三个维度对敌方实施核打击的能力。

The pace of China’s nuclear expansion “will continue and won’t change just because of Trump’s announcement on increasing nuclear weapons testing,” Mr. Lin said.

林柏州指出,中国的核武扩张步伐“将持续推进,不会因特朗普宣布增加核武器试验而改变”。

Satellite evidence suggests that China may be making facilities ready to conduct nuclear tests underground, possibly to signal that it could respond in kind if other countries resume testing.

卫星图像显示,中国可能正在筹建地下核试验设施。此举或许是在释放信号:若其他国家恢复核试验,中国也可采取对等回应。

China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964 and its last in 1996, just before the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, a global moratorium on testing, was adopted by most countries. (China, like the United States, signed but has not ratified the treaty.)

中国于1964年进行首次核试验,最后一次核试验则在1996年——就在多数国家通过《全面禁止核试验条约》这一全球核试验禁令之前不久。(中国与美国一样,虽已签署该条约,但尚未批准。)

China carried out about 45 tests in total, fewer than the many hundreds conducted by the United States or Russia. As a result, China’s nuclear weapons scientists probably have had to work with less data than other superpowers to design their warheads. Since 1996, China and other atomic powers have checked and tested warheads by using “sub-critical tests” that stop short of atomic blasts.

中国共进行过约45次核试验,远少于美国或俄罗斯进行的数百次。这意味着,中国核武器科学家在设计核弹头时,可参考的数据可能少于其他核超级大国。自1996年以来,中国与其他核大国一直通过“亚临界核试验”对核弹头进行检测和测试,这类试验不会引发核爆炸。

But satellite imagery has revealed renewed construction at Lop Nur, China’s nuclear test site in Xinjiang, a far western region of the country. The activity includes new tunnels that could be used for underground nuclear tests, which may help in the design of new nuclear weapons, two experts, Renny Babiarz and Jason Wang, in a recent study of the area.

然而,卫星图像显示,中国位于西部新疆地区的罗布泊核试验场正在重启建设工程。专家伦尼·巴比尔斯与杰森·王(音)在近期针对该地区的研究中指出,此次建设包括可用于地下核试验的新隧道,这或许有助于中国研发新型核武器。

If Mr. Trump actually orders new nuclear tests, it would take the United States about 18 months to prepare the likely test site in Nevada, said Mr. Panda, the expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. China and Russia, he said, could probably move a bit faster.

卡内基国际和平基金会专家潘达表示,若特朗普真的下令进行新的核试验,美国需约18个月时间准备内华达州可能用于试验的场地。他指出,中国和俄罗斯的准备速度可能会稍快一些。

Amy Chang Chien和Erica L. Green对本文有报道贡献。

储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者,自台北报道中国和台湾问题,重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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