European governments are racing to rearm their militaries as they face up to a more aggressive Russia and an increasingly isolationist America. But that push must overcome a formidable roadblock in the shape of China’s restrictions on critical minerals.

面对愈发强硬的俄罗斯与日益奉行孤立主义的美国，欧洲各国政府正加紧重整军备，但这一行动必须克服中国关键矿产限制带来的巨大障碍。

China dominates the market for rare earth metals and permanent magnets, which are used in the production of missiles, jets, drones and a vast array of military hardware. Beijing has wielded this leverage in its trade wars with Washington and Brussels, tightening or loosening export controls on rare earths in negotiations over tariffs and other trade barriers.

中国在稀土金属和磁体市场占据主导地位，这些材料广泛用于导弹、战斗机、无人机及各类军事装备的生产。北京已在与华盛顿和布鲁塞尔的贸易战中动用这一影响力，在关税及其他贸易壁垒谈判中收紧或放宽稀土出口管制。

The drama has spurred a flurry of action in Europe, with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the E.U.’s executive arm, urging the bloc to “strive for its independence” on the critical minerals. But in the meantime, European trade officials have been frantically engaging with their Chinese counterparts to try to secure the bloc’s supply.

这一局势促使欧洲采取一系列行动，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩呼吁欧盟在关键矿产领域“争取自主独立”。与此同时，欧洲贸易官员正紧急与中方对接，试图保障欧盟的供应稳定。

On Wednesday, ambassadors from across the 27 E.U. nations were told that China appeared to be willing to negotiate so-called general licenses to streamline rare earth exports to Europe. But there was no guarantee that such a solution would come quickly — or last for long. The bloc is focused on finding alternative supply options, said two diplomats briefed on the discussions, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

周三，欧盟27国大使接到通知，中国似乎愿意协商所谓的“通用许可证”，以简化对欧洲的稀土出口流程。但两名了解相关讨论、因涉及内部磋商而要求匿名的外交官表示，此类解决方案能否快速落地或长期维持尚无保障，欧盟正重点寻找替代供应渠道。

In the short term, the goal in the negotiations is to “provide more certainty to European industry,” said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission. “Engagement continues.”

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示，短期内谈判的目标是“为欧洲产业提供更多确定性”，“相关沟通仍在继续。”

Yet the twists and turns have made it clear to European leaders just how much their military buildup hinges on an increasingly unreliable relationship with China.

但局势的反复让欧洲领导人清醒认识到，其军备扩张在很大程度上依赖于与中国日益不稳定的关系。

“Everything hangs on this,” said Joris Teer, a researcher at the EU Institute for Security Studies, the European Union’s think tank for security policy. Without a flow of critical minerals, he said, “there is no rearmament.”

“一切都取决于此，”欧盟安全政策智库欧盟安全研究所研究员约里斯·蒂尔说，若关键矿产供应中断，“重整军备便无从谈起”。

After President Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, Beijing quickly responded by limiting the export of seven rare earth elements and magnets for the entire world. It threatened to widen that list last month, before Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, agreed at a summit last week to delay that escalation by a year.

今年4月，特朗普总统宣布大范围加征关税后，北京迅速回应，限制全球范围内七种稀土元素及磁体的出口。上月，中国曾威胁扩大限制清单，直至特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平在上周的峰会中同意将这一升级举措推迟一年。

But the April restrictions remain in place for European buyers — and for all of the E.U.’s talk of diversification, Beijing has Brussels in a bind.

但4月的限制措施对欧洲买家仍然有效——尽管欧盟一再强调供应多元化，北京仍让布鲁塞尔陷入两难境地。

About 98 percent of the European Union’s imports of key rare earths come from China, making it even more dependent than the United States, which imports 80 percent of those rare earths from China. Although rare earths are found throughout the world, they are very difficult to extract and refine.

欧盟约98%的关键稀土进口来自中国，依赖度甚至高于美国——美国80%的相关稀土从中国进口。尽管稀土在全球分布广泛，但开采和提炼难度极大。

The European Union has been working to fix that dependency, and it passed an act meant to create a homegrown industry that took effect in 2024. Still, replacing China’s mining and refining capacity is no quick and easy endeavor.

欧盟一直在努力摆脱这种依赖，并于2024年生效了一项旨在打造本土稀土产业的法案。但要取代中国的采矿和提炼产能并非易事，也无法一蹴而就。

Analysts at the consulting firm SFA Oxford recently predicted in a research note that “full diversification” from China would take eight to 12 years, given how long it takes to develop mines, construct refineries, expand manufacturing and work into the NATO supply chain.

咨询公司SFA牛津的分析师近期在研究报告中预测，考虑到矿山开发、精炼厂建设、制造业扩张及融入北约供应链所需的时间，实现对中国稀土的“完全多元化替代”需要八至12年。

And when it comes to the defense industry, Europe doesn’t have that kind of time.

但就国防工业而言，欧洲没有这么多时间。

European nations are scrambling to raise their spending on defense sharply as they try to develop key capabilities by 2030. To that end, the European Union has loosened budget rules and rolled out a 150 billion euro ($172 billion) loan program to help fuel military outlays.

欧洲各国正紧急大幅增加国防开支，试图在2030年前提升关键军事能力。为此，欧盟放宽了预算规则，并推出一项1500亿欧元（约合1.23万亿元人民币）的贷款计划，以助力军事支出。

欧盟贸易专员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇表示，在中国的出口许可证制度下，欧洲稀土买家一直难以获得供应。

A lack of access to critical minerals could disrupt that initiative, tilt the scales of geopolitics and shape Europe’s future.

无法获取关键矿产可能扰乱这一计划，改变地缘政治格局并影响欧洲的未来。

“Autonomy in defense begins with autonomy in materials,” said Daniel Fiott, the head of a defense and statecraft program at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, a university in Brussels.

“国防自主始于材料自主，”布鲁塞尔自由大学国防与治国方略项目负责人丹尼尔·菲奥特说。

Since October last year, rare earth exporters in China have been required to provide the authorities with detailed explanations of how shipments would be used in Western supply chains. The rules gave Chinese authorities a view of the kinds and quantities of rare earths that companies around the world needed. The move in April to restrict access caused shortages and sent prices for rare earths like dysprosium — used to make heat-resistant magnets — skyrocketing.

自去年10月起，中国稀土出口商需向当局详细说明货物在西方供应链中的用途。这些规定让中国当局得以掌握全球企业对稀土的需求种类和数量。4月实施的出口限制导致短缺，镝等用于制造耐热磁体的稀土价格飙升。

Rare earth minerals are key in F-35 fighter jets, drones, submarines, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems and other military technologies that are made in either the United States or the European Union, and which Europe has been planning to stockpile as part of its rearmament plans.

稀土是F-35战斗机、无人机、潜艇、“战斧”导弹、雷达系统等美欧军事技术的关键原料，也是欧洲重整军备计划中拟储备的关键物资。

中国矿区采集的稀土矿物样本，陈列于北京某地质研究所。

“The end game of China, here, is to slow down the advancement of the United States, and Europe by connection,” said Benedetta Girardi, an analyst at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, a think tank. “If it hits the security sector of one, it also hits the security sector of the other,” she said.

“中国的最终目的是减缓美国的发展进程，并使欧洲也受到牵连，”海牙战略研究中心分析师贝内代塔·吉拉尔迪说，“若打击其中一方的安全领域，另一方也会受到波及。”

Maros Sefcovic, the European Union’s trade chief, has noted that since Beijing began requiring licenses to export rare earths, only about half of the 2,000 applied for by E.U. entities have been “properly addressed.”

欧盟贸易主管马罗什·谢夫乔维奇指出，自北京开始要求稀土出口许可证以来，欧盟实体提交的2000份申请中，仅约一半得到“妥善处理”。

Even though China has rolled back its most recent threat of stricter controls, the fact that it has threatened broad restrictions could serve as a warning shot.

尽管中国撤销了近期加强管制的威胁，但这种广泛限制的威慑本身已敲响警钟。

“I’m still concerned,” said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. “Even a pause in restrictions leaves us precarious.”

“我仍感到担忧，”战略与国际研究中心关键矿产安全项目主任格雷斯林·巴斯卡兰说，“即便限制暂停，我们仍处于脆弱境地。”

爱沙尼亚的一座稀土加工厂。欧洲稀土行业的企业尚不确定政策制定者鼓励建立本地供应链的计划是否足以奏效。

She said that Europe, the United States and their allies are not yet at the point where they can quickly replace the dysprosium in drone motors, for instance. The world also has no real alternative to China’s supply of samarium, a rare earth mineral crucial for magnets that can withstand high temperatures in advanced military gear.

她说，例如欧洲、美国及其盟友目前仍无法快速替代无人机发动机中的镝。在钐的供应上，全球也没有能真正替代中国的选择——钐是制造先进军事装备中耐高温磁体的关键稀土。

Yet even as the risks of China’s rare earth dominance become clear, Europe is struggling to turn anxiety into action.

然而，即便中国稀土主导地位的风险已十分明确，欧洲仍难以将焦虑转化为实际行动。

The United States is moving fast to ramp up investment in rare earth production: The Department of Defense has bought a $400 million stake in a rare earth company called MP Materials, and this week announced hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and potential stakes in Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies, which are partnering to make magnets from recycled rare earth minerals.

美国正迅速加大对稀土生产的投资：美国国防部已向稀土企业MP材料公司投资4亿美元收购股权，本周又宣布向沃尔坎元素公司和ReElement技术公司提供数亿美元贷款及潜在股权，这两家公司正合作利用回收稀土制造磁体。

In Europe, companies in the rare earth business are not sure if Europe’s push to encourage a local supply chain — which involves joint procurement, access to finance and speeding up permitting — will suffice in a timely manner.

在欧洲，稀土行业企业不确定欧盟推动本土供应链的举措——包括联合采购、资金支持和加快审批——能否及时发挥足够作用。

That is why diplomacy is likely to be the main, and perhaps only, hope in the short term.

这也是为何短期内外交手段可能是主要乃至唯一的希望。

“The Chinese are attempting to pull the rug from underneath the entire rearmament” push in Europe, said Mr. Teer of the EU Institute for Security Studies. “It’s not something that, as a defense official or an industry, you want to say out loud.”

“中国正试图破坏欧洲的整个重整军备计划，”欧盟安全研究所的蒂尔说，“作为国防官员或行业从业者，是不愿意把这话挑明的。”