It is another make-or-break moment of wartime leadership for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

这是乌克兰总统泽连斯基的战时统帅能力面临的又一个成败关头。

Late last week, the Trump administration delivered to Mr. Zelensky a 28-point peace plan that many Ukrainians and their Western allies have called a wish list for Russia, a reward for its aggression and a betrayal of Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader was given seven days to either accept it or potentially watch the United States walk away from any remaining support.

上周末，特朗普政府向泽连斯基递交了一个28点和平方案，许多乌克兰人及其西方盟友称其为一份迎合俄罗斯的愿望清单，是对俄罗斯侵略行径的奖励，也是对乌克兰的背叛。乌克兰领导人被给予七天时间，要么接受这个方案，要么面临美国撤回剩余全部援助的风险。

President Trump appears to be doubling down on his statement earlier this year that Ukraine doesn’t “have the cards” to keep fighting, with Mr. Zelensky’s government now under pressure from battlefield losses and a major corruption scandal. But through nearly four years of war, analysts say, Mr. Zelensky has often played weak hands wisely.

特朗普总统似乎在重申他今年早些时候的说法——乌克兰没有继续战斗的“筹码”——而泽连斯基政府此刻正因前线失利和一起重大的腐败丑闻而承受压力。但分析人士指出，近四年的战火中，泽连斯基时常能将弱势化为优势。

While he has publicly acknowledged that the American proposal poses one of the gravest challenges ever to Ukraine, it has also inadvertently strengthened Mr. Zelensky at home, at least for the time being. The 28-point plan has shifted the focus away from a graft scandal that has reached his inner circle and threatened to paralyze his government, allowing Mr. Zelensky to reprise his most successful role: as rally-er in chief.

尽管他公开承认美国的方案是乌克兰面临的最严峻挑战之一，这份方案却意外地——至少暂时——巩固了他在国内的地位。28点方案转移了公众对涉及总统亲信的贪污丑闻的注意力，这场风波原本可能导致政府瘫痪，如今却让泽连斯基得以重新扮演其最成功的角色：团结全民的领袖。

“When Zelensky is cornered, he tends to go on the offensive,” said Viktor Shlinchak, the head of the Institute of World Policy, an analytical research group.

“当泽连斯基被逼到角落时，他往往会转守为攻，”分析研究机构世界政策研究所所长维克托·什林恰克指出。

Perhaps in his tightest corner yet, Mr. Zelensky must decide how hard to push back on a settlement proposal that could bring a pause in the fighting but make it harder for Ukraine to ensure its long-term survival. To find a way through, he will need strong support from his European partners and the Ukrainian public.

泽连斯基正面临可能是迄今为止最为棘手的局面，对于这份能虽然能带来停战，但会让乌克兰更难确保长期存续的和解方案，他需要决定采取多激烈的反抗。要想破局，他将需要来自欧洲伙伴以及乌克兰民众的强力支持。

Mr. Zelensky, analysts say, has become a skilled political performer in the crucible of war.

分析人士指出，在战争的熔炉里，泽连斯基已淬炼成为一名娴熟的政治表演者。

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Zelensky was nearly three years into an unpopular presidency. A former comedic actor, he was often dismissed as a show-business clown. But his decision to stay in Kyiv, the capital, and film defiant selfie videos on the street as Russia bombed the city helped flip the script. Mr. Zelensky rallied the nation and much of the world to resist, cementing his status as an underdog wartime leader to be reckoned with.

2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，泽连斯基的总统任期已接近第三年的尾声，而他的支持率并不高。作为一名前喜剧演员，他常被人嘲讽为娱乐圈的小丑。但他在俄军轰炸基辅期间坚守首都，在街头拍摄拒不屈服的自拍视频，这一举动帮助他扭转了舆论叙事。泽连斯基成功凝聚全国民心与国际社会支持，奠定了虽不被看好，但也不可小觑的战时领袖地位。

He has since weathered storms that threatened the flow of weapons from allies or his own public support. He staved off catastrophic ammunition shortages by pivoting to drone production at home. He resurrected U.S. support when it flagged over the years, often by making emotional and persistent appeals to lawmakers.

此后他屡次化解危及盟友军援与国内支持率的危机。通过转向国内无人机生产，他化解了弹药短缺困境。每当美国的援助出现松懈时，他往往通过对国会议员进行情感强烈且坚持不懈的呼吁，使美国重新投入支持。

10月，乌克兰东部扎波日里亚地区的一处乌军火力阵地，存储在地下的弹药。泽连斯基成功化解了灾难性的弹药短缺危机，还使美国重新投入支持。

Each time, Mr. Zelensky maneuvered and survived. That was partly the result of skillful messaging, experts say. He has coupled that this year with a playbook of turning to European allies to drum up support whenever he has come under pressure from the Trump administration.

泽连斯基总能在一次次危机中迂回求生。专家表示，这在一定程度上归功于他高明的信息传达方式。而今年，他又将这一方式与另一套做法结合起来：每当受到特朗普政府的压力，他就求助于欧洲盟友来争取支持。

That’s exactly what Mr. Zelensky did in a series of phone calls over the weekend to discuss the 28-point peace plan.

在过去的这个周末，他正是通过一系列电话外交讨论28点和平方案来践行此策。

On Saturday, E.U. countries and Britain, Canada and Japan issued a joint statement demanding changes to the proposal’s most objectionable points for Ukraine, including forcible changes in borders and a reduction in the size of its military. The statement said the U.S. proposal would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.

上周六，欧盟国家与英国、加拿大、日本发表联合声明，要求修改和平方案中最令乌方反感的条款——包括强制变更边界、裁减军队规模等。声明称，美国的提案将让乌克兰遭受未来再次被侵略的威胁。

“I have not seen anybody more effective than him in getting out of Europe what I never thought was possible,” a trend that has been visible since early in the war, said Katarina Mathernova, the E.U. ambassador to Ukraine. Communications, she said, are “his superpower” as he has secured money, weapons and diplomatic backing.

欧盟驻乌克兰大使卡塔琳娜·马瑟诺娃指出：“我从未见过有人像他这样高效地从欧洲争取到那些我原以为不可能得到的东西”，这一趋势自战争初期便已显现。她表示，沟通能力是泽连斯基的“超能力”，正是凭借这种能力，他成功争取到了资金、武器与外交支持。

As Mr. Zelensky was turning to Europe for help, Mr. Trump criticized both on social media on Sunday, in a sign of the challenge facing the Ukrainian leader. “Ukraine ‘leadership’ has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts,” Mr. Trump wrote, “and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.”

就在泽连斯基向欧洲寻求帮助之际，特朗普上周日却在社交媒体上同时对他和欧洲提出了批评，这也显示出泽连斯基面临的挑战。“乌克兰的‘领导层’对我们的努力毫无感激之情，”特朗普写道，“而欧洲仍在继续购买俄罗斯的石油。”

Before the 28-point plan emerged last week, Mr. Zelensky had appeared to be on the political ropes. He had prompted widespread anger in Ukraine by trying to neutralize anti-corruption agencies investigating his associates. After those agencies implicated his allies in a vast kickback scheme, members of Parliament called for a no-confidence vote on his government. Several members of his party broke ranks and demanded the resignation of top officials in his presidential office.

上周28点计划曝光前，泽连斯基的政治前景一度岌岌可危。他因试图压制反腐机构调查其亲信而在乌克兰引发广泛愤怒。在这些机构揭露他的亲信牵涉进一桩巨额回扣案后，议会成员呼吁对政府进行不信任投票。他所在政党的多名成员倒戈，要求数名总统府高级官员辞职。

Then came Mr. Trump’s Thanksgiving deadline for a plan premised on conditions that enraged many Ukrainians, including an offer of amnesty for war crimes. Mr. Zelensky seized the moment.

接下来就是特朗普设下的感恩节最后期限，要求乌克兰接受一份包含赦免战争罪犯等激怒乌克兰民众条款的方案。泽连斯基抓住了这个时机。

He has moved to rally both the country’s European allies who have steadfastly stood by him and Ukrainians whose political support for him has waned. On Friday night, Mr. Zelensky released a video with a familiar message set against a heavily symbolic backdrop. From the same street where he defiantly filmed a video on the second day of the invasion, Mr. Zelensky nearly four years later issued a fresh rallying cry.

他开始动员那些始终支持他的欧洲盟友，以及支持度正在下降的乌克兰民众。上周五晚间，泽连斯基发布了一段视频，以一个充满象征意义的背景传递出一条熟悉的讯息。从他在入侵第二天拍下那段抗争视频的同一条街道上，近四年之后，泽连斯基再次发出了新的集结号令。

“I am addressing all Ukrainians now,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Our people, citizens, politicians, everyone. We need to pull ourselves together. Regain our senses. Quit the squabbling. Stop the political game.”

“我现在是对全体乌克兰人民讲话，”泽连斯基说。“我们的人民、公民、政治人士，每一个人。我们必须重整旗鼓。恢复理智。停止内讧。停止政治博弈。”

He presented the settlement proposal as a stark choice between forgoing American backing or losing Ukraine’s “dignity” by acquiescing to Russia’s terms. He prepared Ukrainians for possible concessions while dissociating himself from the plan by highlighting the American pressure.

他将这份和平方案塑造成一个非此即彼的抉择：要么失去美国的支持，要么接受俄罗斯的条件而丧失乌克兰的“尊严”。他一方面让乌克兰民众为可能的让步做好心理准备，一方面又通过强调美国方面的施压，从而使自己与这份方案保持距离。

在乌克兰西部城市捷尔诺波尔，一栋居民楼上周遭俄军袭击后，人们为失踪者守夜。泽连斯基说：“我们的人民、公民、政治人士，每一个人。我们必须重整旗鼓。”

Analysts have noted that Ukrainians over the course of the war have been willing to table their domestic political frustrations in the face of what they see as an existential threat.

分析人士指出，在这场战争过程中，乌克兰人往往愿意将国内政治分歧暂搁一旁，因为在他们看来国家正面临存亡威胁。

Ukrainians are likely to support Mr. Zelensky in the negotiations because he is “the only official representative of Ukraine who embodies the majority’s conviction that we cannot sign a capitulation proposed by Russia,” Mr. Shlinchak, the policy analyst, said.

政策分析师什林恰克表示，乌克兰民众大概率会支持泽连斯基谈判，因为“作为乌克兰唯一合法代表，他凝聚着全民共识——我们绝不能签署俄罗斯提出的投降书”。

“We have no other legitimate leader,” he added. “And because of that, we have no alternative.”

他补充道：“我们没有其他合法领导人。正因为如此，我们也别无选择。”