Three weeks ago, it looked like Japan’s prime minister had made the biggest blunder of her early tenure with an off-the-cuff comment that ignited a diplomatic showdown with China.

三周前，日本首相的一句即席发言看上去好像是她执政初期最大的失误，导致与中国的外交对峙。

Now Sanae Takaichi is in a position of strength at home, even though neither Japan nor China is backing away from the dispute.

而现在，高市早苗在国内地位稳固，尽管日本和中国都没有在争端中退缩。

Ms. Takaichi caused the row by signaling her country’s willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of Chinese military action. China, which regards the island democracy as its territory, responded by curtailing trade and tourism to Japan.

高市早苗因表态愿在中方采取军事行动时保卫台湾而引发争端。视该民主岛屿为其领土的中国随即做出回应，采取措施削减对日贸易和旅游。

But the economic costs have not dented her popularity among Japan’s voters. If anything, they have increased her appeal as a conservative strong on defense.

但经济代价并没有影响她在日本选民中的受欢迎程度，反而巩固了她在国防问题上态度强硬的保守派形象。

Young citizens in particular have praised her stance, in a sign that she has struck a cord with a Japanese electorate that has been increasingly willing to question the nation’s longstanding pacifism. And she has been backed by Japanese, American and Taiwanese officials.

尤其是年轻公民对她的立场表示赞赏，这表明她与日益质疑日本长期以来和平主义的日本选民达成了一致。她还得到了日本、美国和台湾官员的支持。

It is too early to say how the spat with China will color Ms. Takaichi’s legacy — she has been in office for less than six weeks. But it is likely to prove a defining early moment of her prime ministership.

高市早苗上任还不到六周，现在评价与中国的争端将如何影响她的政治遗产还为时过早。但这可能是她担任首相早期阶段的一个决定性时刻。

The furor began on Nov. 7. in the Diet, Japan’s Parliament. An opposition lawmaker asked Ms. Takaichi how her administration would designate an effort by China to blockade or invade Taiwan. She said that would constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” implying that in such a scenario Japan would deploy its military in Taiwan’s defense.

这场风波始于11月7日日本国会。一名反对党议员询问高市早苗，日本政府将如何界定中国封锁或入侵台湾的行为。她表示这将构成“存亡危机事态”，暗示日本将在这种情况下派遣自卫队保卫台湾。

While she was repeating what has long been Japan’s prevailing, if rarely verbalized, policy, her remarks caused an uproar in Beijing. The ensuing diplomatic row has brought streams of vitriol, military posturing in contested waters and appeals to the United Nations and President Trump.

尽管这只是重申日本长期以来鲜少明言的主流政策，但她的言论在北京引起了轩然大波。随后的外交争端带来了一连串的尖刻言辞、在争议水域的军事姿态，以及向联合国和特朗普总统的申诉。

Many political analysts and administration officials believe that Ms. Takaichi’s comment was not a calculated move, but rather spontaneous and possibly provoked by the questioner.

许多政治分析家和政府官员认为，高市早苗的言论并非经过深思熟虑，而是脱口而出，可能是被提问者激起。

“The consensus is it wasn’t really a deliberate move on her part,” said Tobias Harris, the founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm. “But once you’ve said that, it’s very difficult to concede anything, because then it’s a question of whether it’s Japan’s prevailing policy or is it not?”

“普遍共识认为这并非她的刻意之举，”政治风险咨询公司日本前瞻的创始人托比亚斯·哈里斯说。“但是一旦这么说了，就很难做出任何让步，因为接下来的问题是，这是否是日本的主流政策？”

“That is why I feel very bearish about this being resolved anytime soon,” Mr. Harris said.

“正因如此，我非常不看好这个问题会在短期内得到解决，”哈里斯说。

The sparring comes at a time when anti-China sentiment has increased in Japan, influenced by narratives of Chinese over-tourism, military expansion near Japanese islands and reports blaming Chinese nationals for driving up rents and land prices by buying assets in Japan.

这场争吵发生之际，日本国内的反华情绪正有所上升，原因是有关中国的过度旅游、在日本岛屿附近的军事扩张，以及指责中国公民通过在日本购买资产推高租金和地价的报道。

This attitude is especially shared among younger generations, a key demographic for Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, whose popularity has weakened because it has strained to appeal to younger voters.

这种态度在年轻一代中尤其普遍，而这一群体对于高市早苗所在的自民党至关重要，该党因难以吸引年轻选民而出现支持率下滑。

A nationwide poll conducted last weekend by the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan’s largest newspaper, showed that 64 percent of those aged 18-39 approved of the Takaichi government’s stance toward China. That compared to a 43 percent approval rate from those over 60, while the overall approval was 56 percent.

日本最大的报纸《读卖新闻》上周末进行的一项全国民意调查显示，在18岁至39岁的受访者中，64%的人赞成高市政府对中国的立场。相比之下，60岁以上人群的支持率为43%，而总体支持率为56%。

5月，在冲绳训练的日本士兵。部分日本选民似乎质疑该国二战后奉行的和平主义政策。

On Tuesday evening, Mai Hosoda, 23, and Rino Nakatani, 24, were on their way home from work at a bank in Nara, a city near Kyoto famous for free-roaming deer that inhabit its parks. They both said they were supportive of the tough stance Ms. Takaichi, who hails from Nara, has taken toward China.

周二晚上，23岁的细田麻衣（音）和24岁的中谷里乃（音）从奈良的一家银行下班回家。奈良位于京都附近，以公园里自由漫步的鹿群而闻名。两人均表示支持出身奈良的高市早苗对华强硬立场。

Ms. Nakatani said she had recently seen a smattering of social media posts of Chinese tourists feeding strange things to the Nara deer, and that her perception of China had worsened because of the diplomatic spat.

中谷里乃说，她最近在社交媒体上看到一些中国游客用奇怪食物喂奈良鹿的帖子，由于外交争端，她对中国印象更差了。

Ms. Hosoda agreed. “It’s a good thing as a leader to have a firm stance about their own country,” she said.

细田麻衣表示同意。“作为领导人，对自己的国家有坚定的立场是一件好事，”她说。

On the world stage, allies have rallied to Ms. Takaichi’s defense. Taiwan has lifted all restrictions on imports of Japanese food, including those on seafood that have been in place since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Taiwan’s president posted a video of himself eating sushi that included Japanese scallops and yellowtail.

在世界舞台上，盟友们团结起来支持高市早苗。台湾已经取消了对日本食品进口的所有限制，包括自2011年福岛核灾难以来实施的海产品进口限制。台湾总统发布视频，展示自己食用含日本扇贝和鰤鱼的寿司。

The top American diplomat in Japan also voiced support. “Directly from the president and from myself and from the embassy for the Prime Minister, we have her back,” U.S. Ambassador George Glass said last week.

美国驻日本最高外交官也表示了支持。美国大使乔治·格拉斯上周称：“总统本人直接表示，我和大使馆也表示，我们支持她。”

For some observers, an incendiary comment about China from Ms. Takaichi has always been in the cards given her long-held nationalist leanings and public statements.

对于一些观察人士来说，鉴于高市早苗长期以来的民族主义倾向和公开声明，她对中国发表煽动性言论早就有迹可循。

Like many right-wing Japanese lawmakers, Ms. Takaichi has been a frequent visitor to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, where Japan’s war dead, including some war criminals, are commemorated. Her visits have consistently sparked official protests and condemnation from China, where Japanese troops committed atrocities during World War II, as well as South Korea, a former colony of Japan.

与众多日本右翼议员相似，高市早苗频繁参拜东京靖国神社，该神社供奉着日本战死者，其中包括部分战犯。她的参拜行为一直引发中国和韩国政府的抗议与谴责——二战期间，日军在中国犯下暴行，韩国则曾是日本的殖民地。

高市早苗2014年参拜东京靖国神社，她的频繁参拜引发中国和韩国的谴责。

However, some fear that tensions have risen too high. A former prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, criticized Ms. Takaichi, telling a local news station this week that Japan’s response to a Taiwan contingency was not a matter to be discussed so openly.

然而，一些人担心紧张局势已经升级。日本前首相石破茂批评了高市早苗，他本周在接受当地一家新闻台采访时表示，日本对台湾突发事件的反应不应该如此公开地讨论。

“Successive administrations have handled this with the utmost caution. That is how sensitive the Japan-China relationship is,” he said. “This is not about being able to say whatever one wants. Nor is it about simply gaining higher approval ratings.”

“历届政府都以极其谨慎的态度处理此事，日中关系就是这么敏感，”他说。“这并非关乎能否随心所欲地发言，更不是为了单纯提升支持率。”

Beijing’s reactions have included asking the United Nations to distribute a strong criticism of Ms. Takaichi’s remarks to member countries. On Tuesday, Japan said it scrambled fighter jets after detecting a drone, believed to be Chinese, near an island in its south where it is planning to deploy antiaircraft missiles.

北京的反应包括要求联合国向成员国散发一份对高市早苗言论的强烈批评。周二，日本表示，在日本南部一个岛屿附近发现一架据信是中国的无人机后，日本战斗机紧急升空。日本计划在该岛屿部署防空导弹。

Beijing has also sought to ratchet up economic pressure. It has halted seafood imports from Japan and advised its citizens to avoid traveling to the country, warning that visiting it now poses risks to their safety. Hong Kong authorities have also urged residents to exercise vigilance in visiting Japan.

北京还试图加大经济压力。中国已停止从日本进口海产品，并建议其公民避免前往日本，警告当前赴日存在安全风险。香港当局也敦促居民在访问日本时提高警惕。

Visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for over a quarter of all foreign arrivals to Japan last year. The dispute with Beijing could cost Japan as much as $1.2 billion in tourist spending by the end of the year, according to China Trading Desk, a research firm.

去年，来自中国大陆和香港的游客占日本外国游客总数的四分之一以上。据研究机构China Trading Desk称，到今年年底，与北京的争端可能会使日本的旅游支出减少多达12亿美元。

上周，东京热门观光地浅草寺迎来了大批中国游客。有机构估算，此次争端可能导致日本损失逾10亿美元的游客消费。

Yoshitsugu Tone runs a dried-foods shop in Nara that he said is frequented by Chinese tourists, who come to buy Goji berries. He is worried business will be hurt by a drop off in Chinese visitors and said that Ms. Takaichi shouldn’t have provoked China.

奈良的干货店店主利根义嗣（音）说，经常有中国游客来他的店里买枸杞。他担心中国游客减少会影响生意，并说高市早苗不应该激怒中国。

“Japan also did wrong things in the past against China and Korea,” said Mr. Tone, 85. The prime minister “stepped on the tail of the tiger, when she should have just left things untouched.”

“日本过去对中国和韩国也做过错事，”85岁的利根义嗣说。首相“本来不该惹事，偏要踩到老虎尾巴”。

Earlier this month, a Chinese diplomat in Japan attacked Ms. Takaichi directly, posting a call on social media to cut off her “filthy head.” Chinese state media has started releasing cartoons depicting her in outfits linked with wartime Japan.

本月早些时候，一名中国驻日外交官直接攻击高市早苗，在社交媒体上发帖呼吁砍掉她“肮脏的头颅”。中国官方媒体开始发布她穿着与战时日本相关服装的漫画。

“The Chinese side believes that the more pressure they apply to Japan, the more submissive the Japanese will become — the more difficult Ms. Takaichi’s position will become,” said Ichiro Korogi, a China expert and professor at Kanda University of International Studies.

“中国方面认为，他们对日本施加的压力越大，日本人就会变得越顺从——高市早苗的处境就会变得越困难，”神田外语大学的中国问题专家兴梠一郎教授说。

The problem is that Ms. Takaichi has already clarified that she will not retract her statements, Mr. Korogi said. Beijing’s recent actions, he said, are boosting Ms. Takaichi’s popularity.

兴梠一郎说，问题在于高市早苗已经澄清了她不会收回自己的言论。他认为北京近期的行动反而提升了高市早苗的民意支持度。

He added: “The more pressure China puts on Japan, the more Japanese people actually unite.”

他还说：“中国对日本施加的压力越大，日本人实际上就越团结。”