President Trump announced last week that he would allow China to buy an advanced artificial intelligence chip, the H200, from the American company Nvidia, doubling down on a misguided decision he made over the summer to sell China another advanced chip, the H20. The H200 is about six times as powerful and will be an even greater boon to China’s military and A.I. development.

特朗普总统上周宣布，将允许中国从美国企业英伟达公司购买先进人工智能芯片H200。他在今年夏天已做出向中国出售另一款先进芯片H20的错误决定，如今更是错上加错。H200的性能约为H20的六倍，将为中国的军事和人工智能发展提供更大助力。

Mr. Trump explained that in return, the U.S. government will charge a 25 percent fee on all sales of the H200. But U.S. national security and technological dominance shouldn’t ever have a price — let alone such a low one.

特朗普解释称，作为交换，美国政府将对H200的所有销售额收取25%的费用。但美国的国家安全和技术主导地位绝不应被标价出售——更不用说以如此低廉的价格。

For years, both the Trump and Biden administrations had successfully sought as large a lead as possible over China in A.I. In 2018, the first Trump administration wisely cut off key companies in China from the most advanced chip-making equipment. In 2020, Mr. Trump helped reverse the deployment of nonsecure Chinese 5G telecommunications networks by Britain and other allies by banning the sale of advanced chips to the Chinese tech giant Huawei. The Biden administration substantially expanded those controls and added new ones. Both administrations said that China would use American-made chips to develop more sophisticated A.I. and modernize its military.

多年来，特朗普和拜登政府均成功致力于在人工智能领域尽可能扩大针对中国的领先优势。2018年，特朗普第一任期政府明智地切断了中国主要企业获取最先进芯片制造设备的渠道；2020年，特朗普通过禁止向中国科技巨头华为出售先进芯片，帮助英国及其他盟友放弃部署不安全的中国5G电信网络。拜登政府大幅扩展了这些管控措施，并新增了多项限制。两届政府均表示，中国会利用美国制造的芯片开发更尖端的人工智能技术，实现军事现代化。

Hampered by those policies, China has struggled to make advanced A.I. chips, despite a push of around $200 billion starting in 2014. None of China’s chips are close to matching the capacity of the H200. Huawei, a leading Chinese chipmaker, projects that it will not be able to match the H200’s performance until the end of 2027 at the earliest — and even that estimate sounds optimistic.

尽管中国自2014年起投入约2000亿美元推动芯片产业发展，但受上述政策限制，其先进人工智能芯片的研发与生产面临困难。目前中国生产的芯片性能均远未达到H200的水平。中国领先芯片制造商华为预计，其产品最早要到2027年底才能达到H200的性能标准——而这个预估本身就显得过于乐观。

In addition to making less capable chips, China struggles to make them in large quantities. Trump administration officials testified in June that China will make just 200,000 chips per year — not even enough for a single data center. By contrast, Taiwan, the United States and the rest of the democratic world will produce more than 10 million far-superior chips per year. All told, China will produce a total computing power that is a mere 1 percent to 3 percent of what U.S. companies will produce.

除了芯片性能不足，中国在大规模量产方面也面临挑战。特朗普政府官员今年6月作证称，中国每年仅能生产20万枚芯片，甚至不足以满足单个数据中心的需求。相比之下，台湾、美国及其他民主国家每年将生产超过1000万枚性能远超中国产品的芯片。总体而言，中国芯片提供的总算力仅为美国企业的1%至3%。

The chief executive of DeepSeek, a prominent A.I. company in China, admitted in 2024 that access to chips was the company’s biggest impediment. In the summer of 2025, DeepSeek reportedly tried and failed to train a new system on Chinese chips. When DeepSeek released its latest model several weeks ago, it acknowledged that the system still lags behind U.S. versions and cited computing limitations as the key reason.

中国知名人工智能企业深度求索的首席执行官于2024年承认，获取芯片是公司发展的最大障碍。2025年夏天，有报道称深度求索尝试用中国本土芯片训练新系统，但以失败告终。几周前该公司发布最新模型时也承认，其系统性能仍落后于美国同类产品，并指出算力限制是主要原因。

After Mr. Trump’s announcement last week, Chinese companies jumped at the chance to buy the H200 — more evidence that America’s chip advantage is real.

特朗普上周宣布相关决定后，中国企业纷纷抓住机会抢购H200——这进一步证明了美国的芯片优势是实实在在的。

The Trump administration argues that selling chips to China will keep China “addicted” to American products and undermine its efforts to improve production. But China knows better. In the days since Mr. Trump announced his decision to sell the H200, there have been reports that China will invest an additional $70 billion to improve its domestic production of chips. According to a report on Sunday in the Global Times, which is controlled by China’s ruling party, Nvidia’s advanced chips would be used only until Chinese tech companies can transition to domestic alternatives.

特朗普政府辩称，向中国出售芯片将使中国“依赖”美国产品，从而阻碍其提升本土产能的努力。但中国对此有着清醒的认识。特朗普宣布出售H200的决定后数日，就有报道称中国将追加投资700亿美元，用于提升本土芯片产能。据中共旗下《环球时报》上周日报道，英伟达的先进芯片仅会被中国科技企业用于完成向本土替代产品的过渡。

It’s all part of the same pattern, whether the product is solar panels, electric vehicles or telecommunications: China imports Western technology until its own production catches up; then it cuts out American companies. President Xi Jinping has long said that relying on others for core technology “is like building a house on someone else’s foundation.”

无论是太阳能电池板、电动汽车还是电信设备，中国都遵循着相同的模式：在本土产能赶上之前进口西方技术，随后将美国企业排挤出局。习近平主席长期以来一直强调，核心技术依赖他人就像“在别人的地基上盖房子”。

It should be obvious that the United States should not sell China advanced technology that China could use to target American troops and intelligence officers. Advanced A.I. will improve China’s cyber operations, intelligence analysis and weaponry. According to reports, the Trump White House has concluded that Alibaba, one of China’s biggest A.I. companies, provides technology support for the Chinese military, including some of its operations against U.S. targets. (Alibaba has denied this claim.) Other reports suggest that DeepSeek evades U.S. export controls and aids Chinese military and intelligence operations. Chinese procurement documents show that the People’s Liberation Army is also trying to get its hands on advanced U.S. chips.

美国显然不应向中国出售其可能用于攻击美军和情报人员的先进技术。先进人工智能将提升中国的网络作战、情报分析能力和武器装备水平。有报道称，特朗普政府已得出结论：中国最大的人工智能企业之一阿里巴巴为中国军队提供技术支持，包括部分针对美国目标的行动（阿里巴巴否认了这一说法）。另有报道显示，深度求索公司规避美国出口管制，为中国军事和情报行动提供协助。中国采购文件表明，中国人民解放军也在设法获取美国先进芯片。

The bipartisan House committee on China was right when it said last week that China will use the H200 to “strengthen its military capabilities and totalitarian surveillance,” and when it recommended tightening export controls rather than loosening them.

跨党派的众议院中国问题委员会上周指出，中国将利用H200“强化其军事能力和极权监控体系”，并建议收紧而非放宽出口管制——这一判断是完全正确的。

The Trump administration is well aware of how much A.I. matters to national security, which makes its decision even more baffling. Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, last week proclaimed, “The future of American warfare is here, and it’s spelled ‘A.I.’” And when the Department of Justice recently announced charges against two individuals accused of smuggling H200s to China, it underscored the national security issues: “These chips are the building blocks of A.I. superiority and are integral to modern military applications. The country that controls these chips will control A.I. technology; the country that controls A.I. technology will control the future.”

特朗普政府深知人工智能对国家安全的重要性，这使其决策更令人费解。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯上周宣称：“美国战争的未来已至，其关键在于人工智能。”美国司法部最近对两名被控向中国走私H200芯片的个人提起诉讼时，也着重强调了国家安全问题：“这些芯片是人工智能优势的基石，对现代军事应用至关重要。掌控这些芯片的国家将掌控人工智能技术，而掌控人工智能技术的国家将掌控未来。”

For now, that country is the United States. In 2017, Li Keqiang, China’s premier at the time, told Mr. Trump during a meeting in Beijing that China would come to dominate all technologies, including A.I., and that America would export little more than soybeans and corn. Last week’s decision helps make that unlikely dream a reality.

目前，这个国家依然是美国。但在2017年，时任中国国务院总理李克强在北京会见特朗普时称，中国终将主导包括人工智能在内的所有技术领域，而美国届时除了大豆和玉米将几乎没有其他可出口的产品。特朗普上周的决定正助力这一看似遥不可及的梦想逐步成为现实。