Five years ago, the United States played a pivotal role in Myanmar’s general election. Washington assisted with voter education programs, supporting civil society in the name of strengthening global democracy and countering China’s influence in the region.

五年前，美国在缅甸大选中发挥了关键作用。华盛顿通过选民教育项目提供援助，以加强全球民主、对抗中国在该地区影响力的名义，支持公民社会。

It was one of the few truly contested elections in Myanmar, which has largely been ruled by its military since independence from Britain in 1948. Voters delivered a decisive win for the civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but within months the generals again seized power, and Washington downgraded diplomatic ties with the nation.

这是缅甸少数几次真正存在竞争的大选之一。自1948年脱离英国独立以来，该国大部分时间由军方统治。选民为文职领袖昂山素季带来了决定性胜利，但几个月后，将军们再次夺权，美国随之降低了与该国的外交关系。

Now election season has returned in Myanmar, as voters start casting ballots on Sunday. The polls, which will not include many politicians opposed to the junta and will only be held in areas controlled by the military, have been called a sham by the United Nations. But they have a surprising backer — China, a one party state.

如今，缅甸又进入了选举季，选民从周日起开始投票。此次选举不会包括许多反对军政府的政客，且仅在军方控制的地区举行，已被联合国称为一场闹剧。但它有一个令人意外的支持者——一党制国家中国。

For Beijing, Myanmar is a crucial link to the Indian Ocean. China has committed funds worth billions of dollars for infrastructure projects in its smaller neighbor, including highways and a deep seaport. But the coup in 2021 and an ensuing civil war that has wracked Myanmar have threatened those plans.

对北京而言，缅甸是通往印度洋的关键环节。中国已向这个毗邻的小国承诺数十亿美元资金，用于基础设施项目，包括高速公路和一个深水港。但2021年的政变以及随之而来的内战严重威胁了这些计划，给缅甸带来了巨大破坏。

In a remarkable statement last year, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called on Myanmar to achieve domestic peace with an end to the fighting and “national governance based on the will of the people.”

去年，中国外交部长王毅发表了一份引人注目的声明，呼吁缅甸停止战斗，实现国内和平，并“根据人民意愿治理国家”。

China has promised to provide technological assistance and funding so that the junta can compile voter lists. The irony of a one-party state promoting elections is not lost on observers. Beijing views the poll as the best way to establish a semi-legitimate government in Myanmar that some countries may agree to grit their teeth and negotiate with. China, along with Belarus and Russia, are some of the handful of countries sending election observers.

中国承诺提供技术援助和资金，帮助军政府编制选民名单。一党制国家推动选举的讽刺意味并没有逃过观察者的眼睛。北京视此次选举为在缅甸建立一个半合法政府的最佳途径，这样一来，一些国家或许会硬着头皮与之谈判。中国和白俄罗斯、俄罗斯等少数几个国家将派遣选举观察员。

“It’s a little bit of a joke to think that the Chinese are trying to shepherd election observation missions,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “But that just attests to the Chinese effort to window-dress this election, to make it look as pretty and as legitimate as it can.”

“想到中国人试图领导一个选举观察团，有点像个笑话，”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。“但这恰恰证明了中国努力为这场选举装点门面，让它看起来尽可能漂亮和合法。”

Beijing has supplied arms to both the warring junta and the rebel armies to balance its interests. It has also used its leverage over some armed groups to pressure them to hand back territory to the military. Now its hope is that the election will lead to a semblance of stability that would allow it to revive its stalled deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines on Myanmar’s coast. These projects were meant to reduce China’s reliance on the Strait of Malacca, which Beijing fears the United States could someday blockade.

北京向交战的军政府和叛军双方提供武器，以平衡自身利益。它还利用对某些武装团体的影响力，迫使他们将领土交还军方。现在，中国希望选举能带来某种表面的稳定，从而重启陷入停滞的深水港以及缅甸海岸的油气管道项目。这些项目旨在减少中国对马六甲海峡的依赖，北京担心美国有朝一日可能会封锁该海峡。

Ko Ko Gyi, the chairman of the People’s Party in Myanmar, said Chinese officials told him in Beijing last year that “Myanmar’s peace and stability directly affect China’s interests.” His political party was one of many in Myanmar invited to China for all-expenses-paid “study tours” in recent years.

缅甸人民党主席哥哥基表示，中国官员去年在北京告诉他，“缅甸的和平与稳定直接影响中国的利益。”他的政党是近年来众多受邀前往中国的缅甸政党之一，这些“考察游”的费用全部由中国承担。

Mr. Ko Ko Gyi, once one of Myanmar’s most prominent pro-democracy activists, said that even though China is clearly pursuing its own interests, it is “close, influential and willing to engage, while the U.S. remains on the fence.”

哥哥基曾是缅甸最著名的民主派活动人士之一，他说，尽管中国显然在追求自身利益，但它“近在咫尺、影响力大且愿意接触，而美国则保持观望态度”。

“Washington talks about values, but Beijing brings leverage,” he said. “That is why Myanmar keeps leaning toward China, because America offers rhetoric, not commitment.”

“华盛顿谈的是价值观，但北京带来的是影响力，”他说。“这就是缅甸不断向中国倾斜的原因，因为美国提供的只是空谈，而不是承诺。”

人民党主席哥哥基（中间）于11月在仰光出席选举集会。

But ballots will only be cast in junta-controlled areas, or less than half of the country. Some rebel groups as well as the shadow National Unity Government, a pro-democracy movement, have urged a boycott of the election.

但投票仅在军政府控制的地区举行，范围不到全国一半国土。有些叛乱团体以及主张民主的影子政府“民族团结政府”已呼吁抵制此次选举。

“It is absolutely impossible for Myanmar to become stable or for any meaningful political space to emerge simply by holding an election, as China appears to expect,” said Nay Phone Latt, a spokesman for the shadow government. “Even if a so-called civilian government were to emerge through such an election, it would still be the same military coup leaders in civilian clothes who would continue to rule.”

“仅仅通过举行选举——正如中国似乎所期待的那样——就让缅甸实现稳定或出现任何有意义的政治空间，是绝对不可能的，”民族团结政府发言人奈蓬拉特表示。“即使通过这种选举产生一个所谓的文官政府，掌权的也还是同一批军事政变领导人，只是换上了便装而已。”

Members of the pro-military party that is expected to win the elections, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, have traveled to China five times since 2021 for meetings with Communist Party officials.

预计将赢得选举的亲军方政党——联邦巩固与发展党——自2021年以来已五次前往中国，与共产党官员会晤。

“They explained how they systematically built that one-party system, enabling them to govern the country without rivals,” said U Thaung Shwe, the director general of the Myanmar party. “They also discussed how to achieve desired outcomes in elections and how to manage the process to ensure a favorable result.

“他们解释了如何系统地建立一党制，从而能够在没有对手的情况下治理国家，”该党总干事吴当瑞说。“他们还讨论了如何在选举中实现预期结果，以及如何管理进程以确保有利结局。”

“They shared ideas on how a democratic system can still function under centralized control.”

“他们分享了在集中控制下民主制度仍能运作的思路。”

While Myanmar’s military will still control the levers of power, the elections could lead to a return to a nominally civilian government or a shake-up among the military elites. It is uncertain what role the junta chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, will play after the elections.

虽然缅甸军方仍将掌控权力杠杆，但此次选举可能导致名义上的文官政府回归，或动摇军方权贵阶层。军政府首脑敏昂莱大将在选举后的角色尚不确定。

“Even if those who form the next government are the same individuals from the current military government, the system they operate in will change,” said Thet Thet Khine, founder of the People’s Pioneer Party, which comprises former military officials and businesspeople. “That means there will be a shift toward a more democratic path.”

“即使组成下届政府的仍是当前军政府中的同一批人，他们运作的体制也将发生变化，”由前军方官员和商人组成的民众先锋党创始人德德凯表示。“这意味着将向更民主的道路迈进。”

China, she said, is helping Myanmar “move one step closer toward the democracy that our people desire.”

她说，中国正在帮助缅甸“进一步走向我们人民渴望的民主”。

Peng Nian, director of the Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies, compared this election to the 2010 poll, which was seen as a facade to cement military rule but eventually paved the way for the West to engage with U Thein Sein, a former general who enacted reforms.

香港亚洲研究研究中心主任彭念将此次选举比作2010年那次，后者被视为巩固军方统治的幌子，但最终为西方与前将军吴登盛的接触铺平了道路，后者实施了改革。

“Regardless of what the West thinks, it is at least a democratization process,” Mr. Peng said.

“不管西方怎么想，这至少是一个民主化进程，”彭念说。

Ultimately, the veneer of legitimacy that China provides in this election could help the Myanmar junta entrench its power and further the military’s idea of a so-called “disciplined democracy.”

最终，中国为此次选举提供的合法性外衣，可能帮助缅甸军政府巩固权力，并进一步推进军方所谓的“有纪律的民主”理念。

“The last thing China wants is for there to be a full-scale revolution that advances systemic change and pushes the Myanmar military out,” said Jason Tower, the former country director for Myanmar at the United States Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan research organization.

“中国最不希望看到的是发生一场全面革命，推动制度性变革并将缅甸军方赶下台，”无党派研究机构美国和平研究所前缅甸国家主任杰森·陶尔说。

But despite the apparent bonhomie, the Myanmar generals remain suspicious of China. They dislike China’s role in funding the rebel armies in Myanmar’s borderlands and are wary of overreliance on its giant neighbor. The country that General Min Aung Hlaing has visited the most is not China but Russia.

但尽管表面上关系融洽，缅甸的将军们仍对中国保持怀疑。他们不满中国为缅甸边境叛军提供资金，且警惕过度依赖这个庞大的邻国。敏昂莱出访最多的国家不是中国，而是俄罗斯。

9月，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（右）和敏昂莱在莫斯科克里姆林宫会晤。

China has also signaled its displeasure with the general, given the instability on the border, the junta’s failure to shut down the scam centers that have ensnared thousands of Chinese victims, and an attack on the Chinese Consulate in Mandalay last year.

中国也对这位将军表示不满，原因包括边境不稳定、军政府未能关闭那些诱骗数千中国受害者的诈骗中心，以及去年对中国驻曼德勒领事馆的袭击。

Analysts say these factors provide an opening for the West to engage with Myanmar, where many want to balance relations between the world’s two major superpowers.

分析人士表示，这些因素为西方与缅甸接触提供了机会，许多缅甸人希望在大国之间保持平衡关系。

“The international community needs to do something differently in Myanmar,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow for Southeast Asian security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank. “But if they keep waiting and doing nothing, then the country is going to continue to fragment and be pulled closer and closer into China’s orbit.”

“国际社会需要在缅甸采取不同的做法，”智库国际战略研究所东南亚安全研究员摩根·迈克尔斯说。“但如果他们继续观望、无所作为，这个国家将继续分裂，并越来越深地被拉入中国的轨道。”