With oil prices surging and the conflict in the Middle East intensifying, the economic stakes for China are rising.

随着油价飙升、中东冲突不断升级，中国面临的经济风险也越来越大。

The cost of oil on Monday hit levels not seen in four years, one week after the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, an ally and financial partner to China. Fighting has halted virtually all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for China’s energy and goods.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击一周后，本周一，油价攀升至四年来的最高水平。伊朗是中国的盟友和金融合作伙伴。战事几乎完全阻断了霍尔木兹海峡的航道交通，而这条海峡是中国能源和货物运输的重要通道。

China has a lot to lose in a widening conflict. In Iran, China found a cheap source of oil in recent years. Across the region, it found governments keen for its know-how in renewable energy and technology. China grew reliant, like much of the rest of the world, on the Middle East’s supply of both oil and gas.

若冲突持续扩大，中国可能会承受惨重损失。近年来，中国在伊朗找到了廉价的石油来源。在整个中东地区，中国也发现许多政府渴望获得其在可再生能源和技术方面的经验。与世界上大多数国家一样，中国也越来越依赖中东的石油和天然气供应。

The region’s importance to China became even more pronounced this past year, as the country’s trade rivalry with the United States escalated and it was unable to sell many goods to the U.S. market, once China’s biggest market. The United Arab Emirates became the fastest-growing market for Chinese cars. Demand from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors for Chinese steel doubled. China’s exports to the Middle East grew nearly twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world in 2025.

过去一年里，随着中美贸易竞争加剧，中国难以向其曾经最大的市场——美国市场出售大量商品，中东地区对中国的重要性变得更加突出。阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。沙特及其邻国对中国钢铁的需求增加了一倍。2025年，中国对中东的出口增长速度几乎是对世界其他地区出口增速的两倍。

Chinese investment, too, is growing faster there than anywhere else in the world.

中国在该地区的投资增长速度也超过世界其他任何地方。

“The region is basically considered the biggest growth potential for China,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. From 2019 to 2024, China invested $89 billion directly into the Middle East, Ms. Wang said.

“该地区基本上被视为中国增长潜力最大的地区，”欧亚集团中国区总监王丹表示。从2019年到2024年，中国在中东的直接投资达到890亿美元，王丹说。

阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。

These trade ties are now in the line of fire as the American and Israeli militaries attack Iran, and Iran strikes back at ports, ships, pipelines, desalination plants, data centers and other critical infrastructure across the region. The seaborne transit of not only energy but goods carried on giant container ships through the Strait of Hormuz are imperiled.

如今，随着美国和以色列军队攻击伊朗，伊朗又对整个地区的港口、船只、输油管道、海水淡化厂、数据中心以及其他关键基础设施进行反击，这些贸易联系如今正处在风口浪尖。不仅能源运输，就连通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型集装箱船所运载的各项物资也面临危险。

China also has credit at risk, having extended loans for contracts and projects throughout the region.

由于中国为该地区的合同和项目提供了贷款，它还面临信贷风险。

The portion of China’s global portfolio of loans and grants to the region doubled to 10 percent in 2023, according to AidData, a research institute at William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. State-owned financial institutions extended loans to oil refineries and seaports that finance the production and transport of commodities.

根据弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡的威廉与玛丽学院研究机构AidData的数据，到2023年，中国向该地区提供的贷款和赠款在其全球投资中的占比已翻倍至10%。国有金融机构向炼油厂和海港提供贷款，为大宗商品的生产和运输提供资金。

In Qatar, Chinese banks are helping to fund and build a major expansion of a liquefied natural gas production facility. China’s state-owned oil giant Sinopec holds a stake in the facility’s North Field East expansion project. The facilities were attacked last week.

在卡塔尔，中国的银行正在为一项大型液化天然气生产设施扩建项目帮助提供资金并参与建设。中国国有石油巨头中国石化持有该设施北方气田东扩项目的股份。该设施上周遭到袭击。

Chinese investors have funded the expansion of Israel’s Haifa Port and the Emirates’ Khalifa Port, and the resulting terminals are owned and operated by Chinese companies.

中国投资者还为以色列海法港和阿联酋哈利法港的扩建提供了资金，扩建后的码头由中国公司拥有并运营。

In Iran, dozens of Chinese companies have financed, built and run infrastructure, electric grids and petrochemical plants.

在伊朗，数十家中国公司投资、建设和运营着基础设施、电网和石化工厂。

China is also the largest investor in desalination in the Middle East, where potable water is scarce. Nearly all of the projects have been built by Power Construction Corporation of China, with projects in Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Oman and Iraq.

中国也是中东地区海水淡化领域最大的投资者，该地区饮用水资源匮乏。几乎所有项目都由中国电力建设集团建设，项目遍布沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、阿曼和伊拉克。

霍尔木兹海峡的一个港口，霍尔木兹海峡是运输中国货物的重要水道。

“There are so many countries and so many assets spread across the region,” said Brad Parks, the executive director of AidData. “We could see in the deal flow there was just a lot of enthusiasm about doing more and more work in the Middle East.”

“该地区国家众多，资源也十分丰富，”AidData执行董事布拉德·帕克斯说。“从交易情况来看，人们对在中东开展越来越多项目充满热情。”

Major Chinese technology companies like Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent have set up offices in Dubai, where employees work in a complex that includes Microsoft, Meta and Google. Three Chinese smartphone brands — Transsion, Xiaomi and Honor — are gaining market share in the region, after the South Korean giant Samsung, according to Omdia, a tech research firm.

华为、阿里巴巴和腾讯等中国大型科技公司已在迪拜设立办公室，员工与微软、Meta和谷歌等公司在同一园区办公。根据科技研究公司Omdia的数据，三家中国智能手机品牌——传音、小米和荣耀——在该地区迅速扩大市场份额，仅次于韩国巨头三星。

It’s not only large companies seeking fortunes in the Middle East.

前往中东寻求机会的不只是大型企业。

In 2018, Haiyang Zhang, a Chinese entrepreneur, moved to Dubai, the Emirates’ largest city and a hub for international finance and visitors. She left a job at a Chinese-company this year to start her own business helping Chinese investors expand in Dubai. Some of her partners are in the new energy sector. Ms. Zhang believes Dubai remains a secure place for certain Chinese investors to put their money, she said, but is concerned about the impact of a sustained conflict.

2018年，中国企业家张海洋移居阿联酋最大城市、国际金融和旅游枢纽迪拜。今年，她辞去了在中国公司的工作，创办了自己的公司，帮助中国投资者在迪拜拓展业务。她的一些合作伙伴来自新能源行业。张女士表示，她仍然认为迪拜对部分中国投资者来说是一个安全的投资地点，但她也担心持续冲突带来的影响。

Over the past week, several Chinese companies with growing presences in the Middle East instructed their employees in the region to work remotely. On March 1, the tech giant Baidu said it would pause its robotaxi services in the Emirates. The Chinese food delivery platform Keeta has indicated that its services in the region may be suspended or temporarily limited.

过去一周，一些在中东业务不断扩张的中国公司已指示当地员工远程办公。3月1日，科技巨头百度表示将暂停其在阿联酋的自动驾驶出租车服务。中国外卖平台Keeta也表示，在该地区的服务可能会暂停或暂时受限。

China’s foreign ministry said last week that one Chinese citizen had died and more than 3,000 nationals had been evacuated from Iran. It has not said how many Chinese nationals are in the region.

中国外交部上周表示，一名中国公民在伊朗死亡，超过3000名中国公民已从伊朗撤离。但外交部并未透露目前有多少中国公民在该地区。

Oil from the Middle East is critical to China’s energy security. It imports a little over half of its seaborne crude from the Middle East, and about a quarter of that comes from Iran. Like countries all over the world, China faces higher energy costs as global prices rise.

来自中东的石油对中国的能源安全至关重要。中国进口的海运原油中，超过一半来自中东，其中约四分之一来自伊朗。随着全球油价上涨，中国与世界各国一样面临更高的能源成本。

China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, which is under U.S. sanction, although the imports made up a little over 13 percent of the seaborne crude it took in during 2025, according to Kpler, an industry data firm. China also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan. Still, a loss of Iranian supply would force China to find other sources, which would be much more expensive than the discounted oil it bought from Tehran.

伊朗石油正受到美国制裁，而中国是伊朗石油的主要买家。尽管根据行业数据公司Kpler的数据，2025年中国进口的伊朗石油仅占其海运原油总量的13%多一点。中国还运营三条主要原油管道，其中两条从俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦输送石油。即便如此，一旦失去来自伊朗的供应，中国将不得不寻找其他来源，而这些来源的价格将远高于从德黑兰购买的折扣石油。

随着与伊朗的冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与中东多国外长通话。

Despite China’s deep financial ties in the Middle East, it is facing the same risks as other countries, including the United States, that are heavily invested in and dependent on the region.

尽管中国在中东拥有深厚的金融联系，但它与其他在该地区投入巨大并高度依赖该地区的国家（包括美国）面临着相同的风险。

China has condemned the strikes by Israel and the United States and called for a cessation of the fighting. As the conflict has escalated, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has held calls with counterparts in Iran, Oman, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

中国谴责了以色列和美国的袭击，并呼吁停止战斗。随着冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与伊朗、阿曼、以色列、沙特阿拉伯以及阿联酋的外长级人物通了电话。

But Iran’s threats have caused traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to plunge. And it’s not just energy that’s getting blocked. The Chinese shipping giant Cosco stopped bookings through the strait, and Maersk, the Danish company, suspended certain critical routes in the Middle East.

但伊朗的威胁已导致霍尔木兹海峡的航运量大幅下降。受到阻碍的不仅是能源运输。中国航运巨头中远海运已经停止通过该海峡的船期预订，丹麦航运公司马士基也暂停了中东地区部分关键航线。

Ms. Zhang, the Chinese entrepreneur in Dubai, said she observed American businesses and executives evacuating from the region, and to her that spells opportunity.

在迪拜的中国企业家张女士表示，她注意到美国企业和高管正在从该地区撤离，在她看来，这意味着机会。

“Their motivation to evacuate,” she said, “is far greater than that of the Chinese.”

“他们撤离的动机远远强于中国人，”她说。