On its face, Iran’s choice of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message of continuity to a country battered by war. It was also a show of open defiance to Iran’s attackers.

表面上看，伊朗选择穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊出任新的最高领袖，是在向饱受战争蹂躏的国家传递延续性的信号。这同时也是对伊朗的攻击者公开展现强硬态度。

The United States and Israel killed the new leader’s father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the opening salvos of their attack on Iran. They had openly warned Iran against replacing him with his 56-year-old son — a hard-line cleric seen as close to Iran’s top military force.

美国和以色列在对伊朗发动攻击的初期就炸死了这位新领袖的父亲、前任最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。两国曾公开警告伊朗，不要让阿里·哈梅内伊56岁的儿子接班——穆杰塔巴是一名强硬派教士，被视为与伊朗最高军事力量关系密切。

The group of 88 clerics known as the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei despite those threats. That choice risks prolonging the war and creating more uncertainty for the country, should he meet the same fate as his father.

由88名教士组成的“专家会议”不顾这些威胁，依然推选了穆杰塔巴。这一选择可能会延长战争，一旦他遭遇与父亲同样的命运，也会给国家带来更大不确定性。

Iran was already deeply divided between those who support the clerical ruling system and those who oppose it. Choosing another hard-line leader may only deepen that divide.

伊朗国内支持神职统治体系与反对该体系的阵营本已严重分裂，再次选择一名强硬派领导人只会进一步加深这种分裂。

The decision is “laden with peril,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

国际危机组织资深伊朗分析师阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这一决定“充满危险”。

Iran’s new supreme leader lost not only his father to U.S.-Israeli strikes, but also his mother, wife, and daughter, Mr. Vaez said. That means Iran is now “concentrating power in the hands of a man loathed by much of his own people and consumed by fury toward Israel and the United States.”

瓦埃兹说，新的伊朗最高领袖不仅在美以打击中失去了父亲，还失去了母亲、妻子和女儿。这意味着伊朗如今“将权力集中到了一个被本国大部分民众厌恶、且对以色列和美国充满愤怒的人手中”。

President Trump called the younger Khamenei an “unacceptable” choice, and the Israeli military warned it would “continue to pursue every successor.”

特朗普总统称，小哈梅内伊是“不可接受”的选择，以色列军方则警告称，将“继续追剿任何继任者”。

As a political figure, the younger Khamenei is a relative unknown, both to Iranians and the world.

作为政治人物，无论对伊朗民众还是国际社会，小哈梅内伊都相对鲜为人知。

The older Khamenei was a known entity, unflinching in his resolve to crack down on internal dissent, as authorities killed thousands in protests in January, and insistent on the right to uranium enrichment as part of Iran’s nuclear program. Publicly, he ruled out actually building a nuclear bomb.

老哈梅内伊是外界熟知的人物，他在镇压国内异见时毫不手软——今年1月，当局在抗议活动中杀害了数千人；他坚持伊朗核计划中包含铀浓缩权利，但在公开场合排除实际制造核弹的可能。

阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊，摄于2024年。

Nevertheless, the concern that under his leadership, Iran could seek a nuclear weapon was held up as a reason for the United States and Israel to go to war.

尽管如此，外界担心在他领导下，伊朗可能谋求核武器，这也被美以当作发动战争的理由。

What is known about the new supreme leader is that he was influential behind the scenes while working in his father’s office, and is closely tied to Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

关于这位新任最高领袖，已知的是，他在父亲的办公室任职期间便在幕后颇具影响力，并与伊朗强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系紧密。

Founded to defend the Islamic Republic that was established after Iran’s 1979 revolution, the Revolutionary Guards have not only become Iran’s most powerful military force, they wield considerable political and economic influence. Their leaders have directed the waves of retaliatory ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region.

革命卫队成立的初衷是保卫1979年伊朗革命后建立的伊斯兰共和国，如今它不仅成为伊朗最强大的军事力量，还掌握着巨大的政治与经济影响力。其领导人指挥了多轮报复性弹道导弹与无人机袭击，目标包括以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和使馆。

The younger Khamenei was considered the preferred choice of the Revolutionary Guards for the supreme leader post.

小哈梅内伊被视为革命卫队属意的最高领袖人选。

“It is definitely a consolidation and empowerment of the deep state in Iran,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan.

米兰天主教大学伊朗问题专家阿卜杜勒拉苏尔·迪夫萨拉尔表示：“这无疑是伊朗深层国家势力的巩固与权力强化。”

Some experts worry the younger Khamenei could take the step that experts say his father never did, and race to build a nuclear bomb.

部分专家担心，小哈梅内伊可能迈出其父从未迈出的一步——加速研发核武器。

“A war that was meant to prevent Iran from having a bomb could be the war that actually pushed Iran beyond the Rubicon to reach a bomb,” said Danny Citronowicz, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, a think tank, and former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence.

智库大西洋理事会分析师、前以色列军事情报局伊朗部门主管丹尼·希特罗诺维奇说：“一场旨在阻止伊朗拥有核弹的战争反而可能真正推动伊朗破釜沉舟，最终造出核弹。”

Iranian officials appear to be signaling that they are digging in for a longer fight. On Monday, the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned against more attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.

伊朗官员似乎在释放信号，表明他们准备打一场更持久的战争。周一，外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇警告，不要进一步袭击伊朗能源设施与核场所。

“We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites,” he wrote on social media. “And we, too, have many surprises in store.”

“我们知道美国正在图谋针对我们的石油和核设施，”他在社交媒体上写道，“而我们也准备了许多惊喜。”

Internally, some political analysts argue that Mr. Khamenei could be more pragmatic than expected.

在伊朗国内，一些政治分析人士认为，哈梅内伊可能比外界预期的更务实。

Hassan Ahmadian, a political analyst at the University of Tehran, said that Mr. Khamenei’s position of strength among hard-liners opens the possibility for him to seek consensus in a way that weaker candidates could not.

德黑兰大学政治分析师哈桑·艾哈迈迪安表示，哈梅内伊在强硬派中拥有强势地位，这使他有可能以弱势候选人做不到的方式寻求共识。

“He could work with anyone and everyone within Iranian politics, based on the priorities he feels for Iran and for the country at this point,” he said.

“他可以根据他在现阶段为伊朗和国家设定的优先事项，与伊朗政界各方合作。”他说。

周一，在德黑兰，民众聚集起来，表达对穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的支持。

Some Iranians were hopeful that Mr. Khamenei would choose to play a role similar to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia — an authoritarian ruler who expanded social freedoms and rehabilitated the economy.

一些伊朗人希望，哈梅内伊能扮演类似沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的角色——一位扩大社会自由、振兴经济的威权统治者。

Farhad, a logistics manager in Tehran, said many Iranians might welcome a heavy security state coupled with improved foreign relations, and a slow, gradual easing of social restrictions. Like many Iranians inside the country, he asked to be identified by his first name only for fear of retaliation.

德黑兰物流经理法尔哈德说，许多伊朗人可能会接受一个实施严密安全管控的国家，同时期待改善对外关系，并逐步缓慢放宽社会限制。和许多伊朗国内民众一样，因担心遭到报复，他只愿透露名字。

Across the country, government supporters have taken to the airwaves and rallied in the streets to pledge their allegiance to the new leader.

在伊朗全国，政府支持者通过广播发声，并走上街头集会，宣誓效忠新领袖。

Mr. Khamenei’s rise may soon be seen as a predictable outcome the United States and Israel could have avoided, said Mr. Citronowicz, the analyst.

分析师希特罗诺维奇表示，穆杰塔巴上台或许很快会被视为一种美国和以色列本可避免的可预见结果。

“Mojtaba is one example of really not thinking in depth how this war could develop,” he said. “Now, he will try to do his utmost to strengthen Iran’s position, and in that sense, maybe we were better off with the father.”

“穆杰塔巴是一个典型例子，说明这场战争的走向没有经过深思熟虑，”他说。“现在，他会尽全力巩固伊朗的地位。从这个角度看，或许还是他父亲在位对我们更有利。”