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伊朗战争何时结束?特朗普给出矛盾说法

AISHVARYA KAVI

特朗普总统为伊朗战争的结束方式及其持续时间留下了无限的可能性。 Tierney L. Cross/The New York Times

Since the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has given conflicting indications on how long it will continue.

自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来,特朗普总统对于战事将持续多长时间给出了相互矛盾的说法。

After he said near the outset of the war that it could last “four to five weeks,” the president and members of his administration have issued shifting statements on the timeline and the goals for the war.

他在战争初期曾表示,战事可能持续“四到五周”。但此后,总统及其政府成员不断就战争时间表和目标发表前后不一的说法。

They have at times suggested that the United States was striving to topple Iran’s government and achieve an “unconditional surrender” and will continue an assault as long as it takes. At others, Mr. Trump and his officials have delivered the message that the war had already succeeded in its objective of decimating Iran’s military.

他们时而暗示美国的目标是力求推翻伊朗政府,实现“无条件投降”,并且必要的话会一直打下去;时而特朗普及其官员又表示,战争已达成摧毁伊朗军力的目标。

That has left wide-open the possibilities for how the conflict with Iran could wind down and how long it will take, even as some in his administration try to assure the public that the United States will not be drawn into another long war in the Middle East.

这使得伊朗冲突将如何收场、需要多长时间结束都充满不确定性,即便特朗普政府内部的一些人试图向公众保证,美国不会再次卷入一场中东长期战争。

Here’s a look at officials’ often contradictory statements since the war began.

以下是自战争爆发以来,官员们往往相互矛盾的表态。

March 1

3月1日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘We intended four to five weeks.’

“我们打算持续四到五周。”

In an interview with The New York Times the day after the initial strikes on Iran, Mr. Trump already had contradictory visions of how the war would pan out.

在对伊朗发动初步打击的次日接受本报采访时,特朗普对这场战争将如何发展已经表现出了相互矛盾的看法。

He said that the United States and Israel intended to continue the assault for about a month, and predicted that it “won’t be difficult.” But he did not seem to have decided on what changes among Iran’s government he would consider a victory.

他说,美国和以色列打算将攻击持续大约一个月时间,并预测这“不会很难”。但对于伊朗政府需要发生哪些变化才算胜利,他似乎还没有明确的想法。

March 2

3月2日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯

‘This is not Iraq. This is not endless.’


“这不是伊拉克。这不会没完没了。”

During a news conference at the Pentagon last week with Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mr. Hegseth suggested the campaign was being kept to a smaller scope compared with the “nation-building quagmire” of past American interventions in the Middle East.

上周,在五角大楼与参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军举行的新闻发布会上,海格塞斯表示,这次行动被控制在较小规模,与以往美国在中东干预行动中的那种“国家建设泥潭”不同。

He suggested this campaign could take anywhere from two to eight weeks, not settling on a number.

他暗示,这场军事行动可能持续两到八周,但没有给出一个确定的时间。

March 2

3月2日


Gen. Dan Caine

丹·凯恩将军

‘This is not a single overnight operation.’

“这不是一夜之间就能完成的行动。”

At the same news conference, General Caine dismissed any suggestion that the U.S. campaign in Iran might mirror the one in Venezuela earlier this year and said that the Pentagon’s military objectives would “take some time to achieve.”

在同一场新闻发布会上,凯恩将军驳回了外界关于美国在伊朗的军事行动可能会像今年早些时候在委内瑞拉的行动那样迅速结束的说法,并表示五角大楼的军事目标“需要一些时间才能实现”。

He added, “We expect to take additional losses.”

他还补充说:“我们预计将承受更多损失。”

March 2

3月2日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘Whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes.’

“不管需要多长时间,不管付出什么代价,都可以。”

As his defense secretary assured the United States would not be dragged into a long conflict, Mr. Trump said the United States was “substantially ahead of our time projections,” which had put the campaign at four to five weeks.

就在他的国防部长向美国保证不会卷入长期冲突的同时,特朗普表示,美国目前“远远领先于原先的时间预期”,而此前的预期是将战事控制在四到五周。

But he added that the United States had the capability “to go far longer than that.”

不过他又补充说,美国也有能力“把行动持续得比这更久”。

March 6

3月6日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’

“与伊朗不会有任何交易,除了无条件投降”

Six days into the bombing campaign, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to demand that Iran capitulate and said that the United States and its allies would “work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

轰炸行动进行到第六天,特朗普在Truth Social上发帖,要求伊朗投降,并称美国及其盟友将“不懈努力,把伊朗从毁灭的边缘救回来,使其经济比以前更大、更好、更强”。

That appeared to shift the timeline further, into both regime change and rebuilding Iran, even as its current leaders have expressed defiance and expanded the battlefield by striking American bases across the Middle East.

这似乎进一步拉长了时间线,将目标扩展至政权更迭和重建伊朗,尽管伊朗现任领导人表现出强硬态度,并通过袭击美国在中东各地的基地来扩大战场。

March 6

3月6日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘The achievable objectives of Operation Epic Fury we expect to last about four to six weeks.’

“我们预计‘史诗愤怒行动’可实现的目标大约需要四到六周。”

Later that day, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was asked what the president would consider a surrender.

当天晚些时候,白宫新闻秘书莱维特女士被问及在总统看来,怎样才算投降。

She declined to give a timeline beyond the plan she said the president had laid out. But she seemed to soften his demand for a surrender, saying it would “essentially” occur when Mr. Trump concluded his war objectives had been met.

她没有给出比总统此前所提出计划更具体的时间表。但她似乎在一定程度上缓和了总统对投降的要求,表示所谓的投降“基本上”就是当特朗普认定他的战争目标已经实现的时候。

March 7

3月7日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘This is a short excursion.’

“这只是一次短暂的行动。”

After attending the dignified transfer of six American service members who were killed when Iran struck a command center in Kuwait, Mr. Trump suggested to reporters that the United States was achieving its military objectives.

在出席为六名阵亡美军士兵举行的庄严的灵柩回国迎接仪式后——他们是在伊朗袭击科威特一处指挥中心时丧生的——特朗普向记者表示,美国正在达成军事目标。

“We’re winning the war by a lot,” he said. “We decimated their whole evil empire.”

“我们正以巨大优势赢得这场战争,”他说。“我们摧毁了他们整个邪恶帝国。”

Asked if he was worried about high gas prices, which have risen nearly 17 percent since the war began, he said he was not and that the campaign would be “short.”

当被问及是否担心油价上涨时——自战争开始以来油价已上涨近17%——他说并不担心,并表示这场行动将是“短暂的”。

March 9

3月9日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘The war is very complete, pretty much.’

“这场战争基本上已经结束,差不多了。”

U.S. markets rebounded at the start of this week after Mr. Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule.”

美国市场本周一开始反弹,此前特朗普告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道,战争“基本上已经结束,差不多了”,并且“大大快于计划”。

But after markets closed, in remarks to Republican lawmakers gathered for a retreat in Florida and in a news conference afterward, he left open the possibility of more comprehensive aims, even as he said the war would end “soon, very soon.”

但在股市收盘后,他在佛罗里达州向参加一个闭门会议的共和党议员发表讲话,并在随后举行的新闻发布会上表示,这场战争的目标不排除扩大的可能,尽管他同时称战争将“很快、非常快”结束。

“We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all,” he said.

“我们比以往任何时候都更坚定地向前迈进,争取取得最终胜利,彻底结束这一长期存在的威胁,”他说。

March 10

3月10日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯


‘It’s not for me to posit whether it’s the beginning, the middle or the end.’

“这是不是开始、中段还是结束,并不是由我来下结论的。”

At a news conference on Tuesday with General Caine, Mr. Hegseth joined others in the administration in asserting that Mr. Trump alone was in charge of the timeline.

在周二与凯恩将军共同举行的新闻发布会上,海格塞斯与政府其他人一样,坚称战争时间表完全由特朗普总统决定。

“He gets to control the throttle,” Mr. Hegseth said, though he added, “I want the American people to understand is this is not endless. It’s not protracted.”

“他掌握着油门,”赫格塞斯说,不过他又补充道,“我希望美国人民明白,这不是一场无休止的战争。这不会是一场持久战。”

March 10

3月10日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘President Trump will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender.’

“特朗普总统将决定伊朗何时达到无条件投降的状态。”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, the press secretary again appeared to qualify Mr. Trump’s demand of “unconditional surrender.”

周二对记者发表讲话时,这位白宫新闻秘书似乎再次对特朗普的“无条件投降”要求进行了限定。

“When President Trump says that Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender, he’s not claiming the Iranian regime is going to come out and say that themselves,” Ms. Leavitt said. She added that Mr. Trump would decide when Iran no longer posed “a credible and direct threat.”

“当特朗普总统表示伊朗已达到无条件投降的状态时,他并不是说伊朗政权会自己走出来宣布投降,”莱维特女士说。她还表示,将由特朗普来决定伊朗何时不再构成“可信且直接的威胁”。


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