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初步调查认定,美国应对袭击伊朗小学事件负责

JULIAN E. BARNES, ERIC SCHMITT, TYLER PAGER, MALACHY BROWNE, HELENE COOPER

IRIB TV, via Agence France-Presse

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.

一项仍在进行中的军事调查已经认定,美国应对一次致命的“战斧”巡航导弹袭击伊朗一所小学并造成大量伤亡的事件负责。多名美国官员以及了解初步调查结果的人士透露了这一结论。

The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found. Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, people briefed on the investigation said.

初步调查发现,2月28日对沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学建筑的袭击是美军目标定位错误所致。当时美军正在对相邻的一处伊朗军事基地实施打击,而该小学建筑原为该基地的一部分。了解调查情况的人士称,美国中央司令部的军官使用了国防情报局提供的过时数据,制定了打击坐标。

Officials emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that there are important unanswered questions about why the outdated information had not been double checked.

官员们强调,这些结论仍属初步调查结果,目前仍有重要问题没有得到解答,例如为什么这些过时信息没有经过复核。

Striking a school full of children is sure to be recorded as one of the most devastating single military errors in recent decades. Iranian officials have said the death toll was at least 175 people, most of them children.

对一所满是儿童的学校发动打击无疑将被记录为近几十年来最严重的单次军事失误之一。伊朗官员称,死亡人数至少为175人,其中大多数是儿童。

While the overall finding was largely expected — the United States is the only country involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles — it has already cast a shadow on the U.S. military operation in Iran.

尽管总体调查结果基本在意料之中——美国是参与冲突中唯一使用“战斧”导弹的国家——但这一事件已经给美国在伊朗的军事行动蒙上阴影。

President Trump’s attempts to sidestep the blame for the strike have also already complicated the inquiry, leaving officials who have reviewed the findings showing U.S. culpability expressing unease. The people interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the ongoing investigation and Mr. Trump’s assertion at one point that Iran, not the United States, was responsible.

特朗普总统试图回避此次袭击责任的做法也已使调查变得棘手,让那些审阅了调查结果,看到美国负有责任的官员们感到不安。接受本文采访的人士均要求匿名,理由是调查仍在进行且情况敏感,而且特朗普一度声称应对此事负责的是伊朗,而非美国。

“As The New York Times acknowledges in its own reporting, the investigation is still ongoing,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement.

“正如《纽约时报》在自己的报道中所承认的那样,调查仍在进行中,”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。

Asked about this article as he left the White House on Wednesday for a trip to promote his economic agenda in Ohio and Kentucky, Mr. Trump replied, “I don’t know about that.”

周三,特朗普在离开白宫前往俄亥俄州和肯塔基州宣传其经济议程时被问及这篇报道,他回答说:“我对此并不了解。”

People briefed on the investigation said many questions were yet to be answered around why outdated information was used and who failed to verify the data.

知情人士表示,调查人员仍在试图弄清许多问题,例如为什么会使用过时的信息,以及是谁未能核实这些数据。

Still, the error has not surprised current and former officials.

不过,这一失误并没有让现任和前任官员感到意外。

03iran minab graves qmgh master10502月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前,工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。

The school, in the town of Minab, is on the same block as buildings used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy, a top target of the U.S. military strikes. The site of the school was originally part of the base. Officials briefed on the inquiry said the building was not always used as a school, though it is not clear precisely when the school opened on the site.

这所学校位于米纳卜市,与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军使用的一些建筑处在同一街区,而后者正是美军打击行动的首要目标之一。学校所在地原本是军事基地的一部分。了解调查情况的官员表示,这栋建筑并非一直用作学校,但目前尚不清楚学校具体何时在此开办。

A visual investigation by The Times showed the building housing the school had been fenced off from the military base between 2013 and 2016.

《纽约时报》通过影像分析发现,2013年至2016年之间,这栋用于学校的建筑已用围栏与军事基地隔开。

Satellite imagery reviewed by The Times showed that watchtowers that once stood near the building had been removed, three public entrances were opened to the school, ground was cleared and play areas including a sports field were painted on asphalt, and walls were painted blue and pink.

《纽约时报》获得的卫星图像显示,曾经矗立在该建筑附近的瞭望塔已被拆除,学校新设三个公共入口,地面被清理平整,柏油地面上还画出了包括运动场在内的活动区域,墙壁也被粉刷成蓝色和粉色。

The “target coding” provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the military intelligence agency that helps develop targets, labeled the school building as a military target when it was passed to Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the war, according to people briefed on the preliminary findings of the investigation.

了解调查初步结果的人士称,由国防情报局(负责协助制定目标的军事情报机构)提供的“目标编码”在移交给中央司令部(负责监管战争的军事总部)时,将学校建筑标记为军事目标。

Investigators do not yet fully understand how the outdated data was sent to Central Command or whether the Defense Intelligence Agency had updated information.

调查人员目前尚未完全弄清楚这些过时数据是如何给到了中央司令部,也不清楚国防情报局当时是否掌握最新信息。

Military targeting is very complex and involves multiple agencies. Many officers would have been responsible for verifying that the data is correct, and officers at Central Command are responsible for checking the information they receive from the Defense Intelligence Agency or another intelligence agency. But in a fast-moving situation, like the opening days of a war, information is sometimes not verified.

军事目标的锁定是一项极其复杂的工作,涉及多个机构。许多军官都应负责核实数据的准确性,而中央司令部的军官也有责任检查来自国防情报局或其他情报机构的信息。但在战争初期这种快速变化的情况下,信息有时得不到核实。

In addition to the Defense Intelligence Agency and Central Command, investigators are examining the work of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, known as the N.G.A., which provides and examines satellite imagery of potential targets.

除了国防情报局和中央司令部,调查人员正在审查美国国家地理空间情报局的工作,该机构负责提供并分析潜在目标的卫星图像。

U.S. officials and others emphasized that the investigation was ongoing and there was more to learn, according to people briefed on the inquiry. Officials from Central Command declined to comment. Officials from the Defense Intelligence Agency referred questions to the Pentagon, which declined to comment, saying the incident was under investigation. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

了解调查情况的人士称,美国官员和其他人士强调,调查仍在进行中,还有更多情况有待了解。中央司令部官员拒绝置评。国防情报局官员将问题转给五角大楼,五角大楼拒绝置评,称该事件正在调查中。国家地理空间情报局未立即回应置评请求。

The Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency have dozens, even hundreds, of analysts at combatant commands who work with military operational planners and intelligence offices to develop targets.

国防情报局与国家地理空间情报局在各作战司令部派驻有数十甚至上百名分析师,他们与军事行动规划人员及情报部门合作,共同制定打击目标。

When the Defense Intelligence Agency’s targeting data is older, intelligence officers are expected to use imagery or data from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to update and verify the target.

当国防情报局提供的目标数据较为陈旧时,情报官员通常需要使用国家地理空间情报局提供的影像或数据来更新并核实目标。

While Mr. Trump has made targeting Iran’s navy a top priority of the war to prevent it from interfering with global commerce in the region, historically it has not been a top priority of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has focused more on Iran’s missiles and other priorities like China and North Korea.

尽管特朗普总统将打击伊朗海军列为战争的首要任务之一,以防其干扰该地区的全球商业航运,但从历史上看,这并非国防情报局的优先事项——该机构更关注伊朗的导弹能力,以及中国和朝鲜等其他重点目标。

Satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos assembled by The Times visual investigation team indicate that the school was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred around the same time as attacks on the naval base. A Times analysis showed that base was hit again within around two hours of the first strikes.

《纽约时报》的视觉调查团队整理的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实的视频显示,这所学校是在对海军基地发动袭击的同一时段遭到精确打击而严重损毁的。时报的分析显示,该基地在首轮袭击后约两小时内再次遭到打击。

A video uploaded Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The Times also shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking the naval base beside the school in Minab on Feb. 28.

上周日,伊朗半官方媒体迈赫尔通讯社上传的一段视频也显示(时报对视频进行了核实),2月28日,一枚“战斧”巡航导弹击中了米纳卜市这所学校旁边的海军基地

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have declined to comment on the strike, other than to say it is under investigation. Despite that, the president has tried at times to put the blame on Iran.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯及其他政府官员拒绝就此次袭击发表评论,仅表示事件仍在调查中。尽管如此,总统仍多次试图将责任归咎于伊朗。

“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Saturday, as Mr. Hegseth stood beside him, adding: “They’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”

“依我所见、根据我看到的情况,那是伊朗干的,”特朗普周六在“空军一号”上对记者说。当时海格塞思就站在他旁边。特朗普还补充说:“正如你们所知道的,他们的弹药非常不精准,完全没有精度。那就是伊朗干的。”

On Monday, a Times reporter asked Mr. Trump why he was the only official in his administration blaming Iran. “Because I just don’t know enough about it,” Mr. Trump answered, asserting incorrectly that Iran might also have Tomahawk missiles but adding that he would accept the results of the inquiry into what happened.

周一,当《纽约时报》记者问特朗普,为什么他是其政府中唯一将责任归咎于伊朗的官员时,特朗普回答说:“因为我对这件事还不够了解。”他还错误地声称伊朗可能也拥有“战斧”导弹,但表示自己会接受调查结果。

Although most presidents might refrain from commenting or couch their statements while an investigation is underway, Mr. Trump has not hesitated to weigh in, and has not fully backed down even as evidence has mounted of U.S. culpability.

尽管大多数总统在调查进行期间可能会避免发表评论或措辞谨慎,但特朗普却毫不犹豫地发表看法,即使越来越多证据显示美国负有责任,他也没有完全收回自己的说法。

On Tuesday, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, reiterated that Mr. Trump would accept the findings of the investigation.

周二,白宫新闻秘书莱维特再次表示,特朗普将接受调查结果。

While the investigation into the school is not complete, the use of old data evoked the biggest misstep of the Kosovo war.

尽管对学校的调查尚未结束,但使用旧数据这一情况,让人想起了科索沃战争中最大的失误。

In 1999, old, outdated maps and poor tradecraft led the C.I.A. to provide erroneous targeting data to the military, resulting in an airstrike on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade that killed three Chinese citizens. The C.I.A. wrongly assessed that the building was the headquarters of a Yugoslav arms agency.

1999年,由于过时地图和糟糕的情报工作,中央情报局向军方提供了错误的目标数据,导致误炸贝尔格莱德中国大使馆,造成三名中国公民死亡。当时中情局错误地判断该建筑是南斯拉夫一家军火机构的总部。

“Database maintenance is one of the basic elements of our intelligence effort, but it is also one that has suffered in recent years as our work force has been spread thin,” George J. Tenet, the C.I.A. director at the time, told a congressional committee in 1999.

“数据库维护是我们情报工作的基本要素之一,但近年来,由于我们的人力资源捉襟见肘,这方面也受到了影响,”时任中情局局长乔治·特尼特在1999年对国会委员会表示。

Military planners assumed the intelligence agency had verified the site and ordered the strike.

当时的军事规划人员以为情报机构已经核实了该地点,于是下令实施了打击。

Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。

Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者,主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题,他报道此类新闻已超过30年。

Tyler Pager是《纽约时报》白宫记者,报道特朗普总统及其政府新闻。

Malachy Browne是《纽约时报》视觉调查团队深度报道负责人。他曾作为团队成员获得2020和2023年普利策国际报道奖。

Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。

翻译:杜然

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