
Two oil tankers were attacked and left burning off the Iraqi coast on Thursday, the latest in a series of strikes during the Middle East war that have crippled the global energy sector.
周四,两艘油轮在伊拉克海岸附近遭到袭击并起火燃烧。这是中东战争期间一系列袭击中的最新一起,这些袭击已经严重冲击了全球能源行业。
Iran has taken responsibility for several of the strikes on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil output normally flows. Tehran has said that it would not allow oil shipments that benefit the United States and its allies to pass through the strait.
伊朗对波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡发生的多起商船遇袭事件负责。正常情况下,全球五分之一的石油产量经由此处运输。德黑兰表示,不会允许那些惠及美国及其盟友的石油运输通过该海峡。
Oil prices have surged to trade around $100 per barrel, forcing dozens of countries to release emergency reserves to stabilize their economies.
油价已飙升至每桶100美元左右,迫使数十个国家释放紧急石油储备以稳定经济。
The strikes on shipping have given Iran a strategic success, putting economic pressure on the United States and its allies even as Iran is under heavy attack. Tehran’s actions have also raised questions about whether the United States planned for a lengthy shutdown of the strait.
针对航运的袭击为伊朗带来了一项战略成果:即使在其自身遭受重创之际,仍对美国及其盟友施加了经济压力。德黑兰的行动也引发了疑问:美国是否为霍尔木兹海峡的长期关闭做好了准备。
“The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used,” said Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader.
“封锁霍尔木兹海峡这一杠杆必须继续加以运用,”伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊说。
What’s the latest?
最新情况如何?
On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility for attacking one of the two tankers off Iraq’s coast, saying the Marshall Islands-flagged ship had “disobeyed and ignored” warnings.
周四,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队声称对伊拉克海岸外两艘油轮中其中一艘的袭击负责,并表示这艘悬挂马绍尔群岛国旗的船只“违抗并无视”警告。
周四,两艘油轮在伊拉克附近海域起火,图为其中一艘。
A British naval monitoring group said that a third ship was struck by an unknown projectile near Dubai. Security concerns on Thursday also forced the closure of oil export terminals in Iraq and Oman.
英国的一个海事安全监测机构表示,还有第三艘船在迪拜附近被一枚不明射弹击中。周四的安全担忧还迫使伊拉克和阿曼的石油出口码头关闭。
In all, more than a dozen shipping vessels have been struck since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
自2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来,已有超过十艘航运船只遭到袭击。
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
为何霍尔木兹海峡如此重要?
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the broader Indian Ocean. It is the only sea route that can move oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s coastline runs along both the strait and the gulf.
霍尔木兹海峡是一条具有战略意义的水道,连接波斯湾与阿曼湾以及更广阔的印度洋。它是将石油、天然气和其他货物从波斯湾运往外界的唯一海上通道。伊朗的海岸线沿着霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾延伸。
At the strait’s narrowest point — between Iran to the north and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula to the south — the navigable channel is about two miles wide each for inbound and outbound traffic, according to the International Energy Agency.
根据国际能源署的数据,在海峡最狭窄处——北侧是伊朗,南侧是阿曼的穆桑代姆半岛——进出航道的宽度各约3.2公里。
In normal times, about 20 percent of global oil and liquid natural gas passes through the strait. Most of the fossil fuels are bound for Asia, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea.
在正常情况下,全球约20%的石油和液化天然气经过该海峡。大部分化石燃料运往亚洲,特别是中国、印度、日本和韩国。
穿越海峡的油气运输船舶航线。注:包括自1月1日至3月2日所有油轮和天然气运输船。来源:Kpler。
Other large vessels also normally go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. Crucial industrial goods — including helium from Qatar, fertilizer from Oman and Saudi Arabia and plastic feedstocks from Saudi Arabia and Emirati petrochemical plants — also travel through Hormuz.
除了能源运输外,其他大型船只通常也会经过这条海峡,包括汽车运输船和集装箱船。一些关键工业产品——例如卡塔尔的氦气、阿曼和沙特的化肥,以及来自沙特和阿联酋石化厂的塑料原料——也通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。
How is Iran choking off traffic?
伊朗是如何“掐住”航道通行的?
Iran’s military currently has a strategic advantage in the Persian Gulf and the strait, with the ability to threaten shipping traffic, even after much of its navy has been destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes.
伊朗军队目前在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡拥有战略优势,有能力威胁航运交通——即便其海军大部分力量已被美以空袭摧毁。
周三,一艘阿联酋海军舰艇在霍尔木兹海峡为货船和油轮护航。
Projectiles: Since the war began, at least a dozen cargo vessels and oil tankers have been hit in the Gulf and the strait. Iran has taken responsibility for several of them. It’s not entirely clear what type of weapons it used, but Iran’s military has deployed a wide array of missiles and drones during the conflict.
射弹:自战争爆发以来,至少十余艘货船和油轮在海湾及海峡地区遭袭。伊朗已对其中多起袭击负责。目前尚不完全清楚其使用的武器类型,但伊朗军队在冲突中动用了种类繁多的导弹和无人机。
Mines: The next stage of the fighting may involve naval mines, explosives that are often no bigger than a beach ball which can still sink large vessels. On Thursday, Iran started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials.
水雷: 战斗的下一阶段可能涉及水雷。这些爆炸装置往往只有沙滩球大小,却足以击沉大型船只。美国官员表示,伊朗周四已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷。
The U.S. has destroyed dozens of larger Iranian mine-laying vessels, but Iran used smaller boats — of which the I.R.G.C. has hundreds, if not thousands — for the mining operation, a U.S. official said.
美国此前摧毁了数十艘较大的伊朗布雷舰,但一名美国官员表示,伊朗在此次布雷行动中使用的是更小型的船只——伊斯兰革命卫队拥有数百甚至上千艘这种船。
On Thursday, the U.S. military said it had damaged or destroyed over 30 mine-laying vessels since the war began. It is not clear whether any Iranian mines have actually been deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.
周四,美军方表示自开战以来已击毁或击沉超过30艘伊朗布雷船。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否真的已经在霍尔木兹海峡布设了水雷。
Insurance: After a relatively small number of strikes, the cost of insuring a vessel to go through the strait has soared, making it prohibitively expensive. President Trump has said the U.S. government may provide affordable insurance coverage, but experts are dubious. One analyst estimated the potential cost could be more than $300 billion.
保险:在发生几次袭击之后,通过该海峡航行的船舶保险费已经大幅上涨,高到几乎难以承受。特朗普总统表示,美国政府可能会提供较为低廉的保险保障,但专家对此持怀疑态度。有分析师估计,潜在成本可能超过3000亿美元。
Iran’s own tankers: For years, the common wisdom among military analysts was that Iran would not close the strait because it needed to export its own oil. But shipping analysts say that in recent days, Iran has been loading oil and exporting it through the strait, letting its own ships through even as it threatens and attacks others.
伊朗自己的油轮:多年来,军事分析界普遍认为伊朗不会封锁该海峡,因为它自身也需要通过这里出口石油。但航运分析人士表示,最近几天伊朗仍在装载石油并通过海峡出口,让本国船只通行的同时,却威胁、袭击他国船只。
Since March 1, at least 10 tankers and gas carriers have left Iran and transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a shipping analysis firm.
据航运分析公司劳氏海事数据,自3月1日以来,至少10艘油轮和液化气船离开伊朗并穿越了霍尔木兹海峡。
How is it affecting energy prices around the world?
这对全球能源价格造成了什么影响?
The war in the Middle East has caused the “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
国际能源署周四表示,中东战争已造成“全球石油市场历史上最严重的供应中断”。
In the United States, gasoline prices rose by about 20 percent. In Europe, the price of natural gas surged more than 43 percent, and diesel prices doubled. Asia, which receives roughly 70 percent of all crude shipped through Hormuz, absorbed the worst of the supply shock, forcing countries like Pakistan to move to a four-day workweek to conserve fuel.
在美国,汽油价格上涨了大约20%。在欧洲,天然气价格飙升超过43%,柴油价格翻了一番。亚洲承受了最严重的供应冲击——大约70%通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油都流向亚洲,这迫使像巴基斯坦这样的国家实行每周四天工作制,以节约燃料。
In response, the 32 member states of the I.E.A. agreed this week to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, the most ever. But the move did not bring oil prices down: The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed briefly back above $100 a barrel on Thursday, about $30 higher than it was before the war began.
作为回应,国际能源署32个成员国本周同意从战略储备中释放4亿桶石油,规模为历史之最。但这一举措并没有让油价下降:全球基准布伦特原油价格周四短暂回升至每桶100美元上方,较战前高出约30美元。

Higher energy prices have rippled across the global economy, stoking inflation and threatening countries around the world.
能源价格上涨的涟漪效应波及全球经济,加剧通货膨胀,并给世界各国造成威胁。
Mr. Trump has touted the “energy dominance” of the United States, which is the world’s biggest oil producer. But oil is a globally priced commodity, so higher crude prices translate into higher prices at U.S. gas stations, regardless of how much oil the U.S. produces domestically.
特朗普一直强调美国的“能源主导地位”,因为美国是世界最大的石油生产国。但石油是一种全球定价的商品,因此无论美国国内生产多少石油,原油价格上涨都会转化为美国加油站油价的攀升。