For the second time this week, President Trump has threatened to disrupt trade with a close ally for retaliating in a trade war that he started — a tactic that could lead to compromise, or to economic spats that spiral further out of control.

本周，特朗普总统第二次威胁要破坏与一个亲密盟友的贸易关系，因为后者在一场由他发起的贸易战中进行了报复——这种策略可能促成妥协，也可能导致经济争端进一步失控。

On Thursday morning, Mr. Trump tried to cow the European Union into submission, threatening in a social media post to put a 200 percent tariff on European wine and Champagne unless the bloc dropped a 50 percent tariff on U.S. whiskey. The European Union had imposed that tariff in response to levies that Mr. Trump put on global steel and aluminum on Wednesday.

周四上午，特朗普试图迫使欧盟屈服，他在社交媒体上威胁称，除非欧盟取消对美国威士忌征收50%的关税，否则就要对欧洲葡萄酒和香槟征收200%的关税。欧盟征收这项关税是为了回应特朗普周三对全球钢铝加征的关税。

Mr. Trump deployed a similar tactic against Canada on Tuesday, threatening to double 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to try to get Ontario to lift a surcharge on electricity sold to the United States. The province had imposed the charge after Mr. Trump put other tariffs on Canada this month.

周二，特朗普对加拿大采取了类似的策略，威胁要将加拿大钢铝25%的关税加倍，试图以此让安大略省取消对卖给美国的电力征收的附加费。在特朗普本月对加拿大征收其他关税后，该省征收了这笔费用。

After Ontario suspended its surcharge, Mr. Trump walked back his threats.

安大略省暂停征收附加费后，特朗普收回了他的威胁。

Over the last several weeks, Mr. Trump has presided over a confusing and potentially economically devastating back and forth of tariffs and tariff threats, playing a global game of chicken as he tries to get some of the United States’ closest allies and trading partners to back down.

过去几周，特朗普主导了一场令人困惑、可能对经济造成破坏性影响的关税和关税威胁的来回交锋，他在全球玩一场“胆小鬼博弈”，试图让美国一些最亲密的盟友和贸易伙伴让步。

Mr. Trump has wielded the tariff threats without regard for their economic consequences and, increasingly, seemingly without regard for the impact on stock markets. The S&P 500 slumped again on Thursday after Mr. Trump threatened Europe and reiterated at the White House that he would impose big tariffs.

特朗普在发出关税威胁时全然不考虑经济后果，而且似乎越来越不顾及对股市的影响。周四，在特朗普威胁欧洲并在白宫重申他将征收高额关税后，标准普尔500指数再次暴跌。

When asked whether he might relent on Canada, which sent a delegation to the United States on Thursday to try to calm trade tensions, Mr. Trump said: “I’m not going to bend at all.”

周四，加拿大派出代表团前往美国，试图缓和贸易紧张局势。当被问及他是否会在加拿大问题上让步时，特朗普说：“我一点也不会让步。”

He said the United States didn’t need imports like lumber and energy from Canada, one of America’s largest trading partners. “We don’t need anything they have,” he said.

他说，美国不需要木材和能源等加拿大出口商品，加拿大是美国最大的贸易伙伴之一。“我们不需要他们的任何东西，”他说。

The president, who spoke to reporters during a meeting with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, acknowledged that his tariffs could cause “a little disruption” but said that “it won’t be very long.”

总统在与北约秘书长马克·吕特会面时对记者承认，他的关税可能会造成“一点干扰”，但表示“不会持续很长时间”。

“And we have to do this,” he said. “I’m sorry, we have to do this.”

“我们必须这样做，”他说。“不好意思，我们必须这么做。”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, asked on Thursday about market volatility and the economic effects of tariffs, said the White House was not concerned “about the short term.”

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四被问及市场波动和关税的经济影响时表示，白宫不担心“短期”问题。

“We’ve got strategic industries we’ve got to have,” Mr. Bessent said. “We want to protect the American worker.”

“我们有我们必须拥有的战略性产业，”贝森特说。“我们要保护美国工人。”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also warned other countries against retaliating against the United States, saying in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Thursday that Mr. Trump could respond temperamentally.

商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克也警告其他国家不要对美国进行报复，他周四在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，特朗普可能会做出喜怒无常的回应。

“If you make him unhappy, he responds unhappy,” Mr. Lutnick said.

“如果你让他不高兴，他也会做出不高兴的回应，”卢特尼克说。

Mr. Lutnick said some countries, like Britain and Mexico, had thoughtfully examined how they did business with the United States. But for countries that respond with further tariffs, “the president’s going to deal with them with strength and with power,” he threatened.

卢特尼克说，英国和墨西哥等国家已经仔细研究了他们与美国贸易往来的方式。但对于那些以进一步征收关税作为回应的国家，“总统将以强有力的方式来应对，”他威胁道。

It remains to be seen whether other countries will retaliate with their own levies and, if so, how many economic disagreements may spiral into true tit-for-tat trade wars. Mr. Trump has promised more levies on cars and other products to come in April.

有待观察的是，其他国家是否会采取报复性征税措施，以及如果这样做，会有多少经济分歧演变成真正的针锋相对的贸易战。特朗普承诺将在4月对汽车和其他产品征收更多关税。

Some governments, like those in Australia, Brazil, Britain, Japan and Mexico, have chosen not to retaliate for now, as they try other routes to defuse tensions with Mr. Trump. But China, the European Union and Canada have all made different calculations.

澳大利亚、巴西、英国、日本和墨西哥等国的政府选择暂时不进行报复，因为它们在尝试其他途径来缓和与特朗普的紧张关系。但中国、欧盟和加拿大都有不同的考虑。

Those governments may be encouraged by domestic political constituencies to stand up to Mr. Trump’s bullying or, in the case of Europe and China, emboldened by the size of their economies.

这些国家的政府可能会受到国内政治选民的鼓励，奋起抵制特朗普的霸凌，或者，就欧洲和中国而言，其经济规模让它们有了底气。

Some European officials said they wouldn’t bow to pressure. In a statement on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said that Europe needed to act to “protect consumers and business” and that it would take “strong but proportionate” countermeasures.

一些欧洲官员表示他们不会屈服于压力。在周三的一份声明中，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧洲需要采取行动“保护消费者和企业”，并将采取“有力但适度的”反制措施。

“We will not give in to threats,” Laurent Saint-Martin, France’s foreign trade minister, said in a post on X. Mr. Trump “is escalating the trade war he chose to unleash,” he added.

“我们不会向威胁屈服，”法国外贸部长洛朗·圣马丁在X上发帖说。他还表示，特朗普“正在升级他选择发动的贸易战”。

Canadian officials have also generally been outspoken against the United States, a dynamic that may be amplified by a political transition and an upcoming federal election in Canada.

加拿大官员也普遍直言不讳地反对美国，政治过渡和加拿大即将举行的联邦选举可能会放大这种态势。

“If you hit us, we will hit back,” Chrystia Freeland, a former Canadian minister of finance, said in an interview on CNN on Thursday. Ms. Freeland said that Canada was small but that it had leverage in the economic relationship because it was the largest export market for the United States by far.

“如果你们打击我们，我们就会反击，”加拿大前财政部长克里斯蒂亚·弗里兰周四在接受CNN采访时说。她说，加拿大虽小，但在经济关系上它是有影响力的，因为它是美国目前为止最大的出口市场。

“Canada is a more important export market for the U.S. than China, Japan, the U.K. and France combined,” she said. “You guys are the country that invented the phrase ‘the customer is always right.’ Well, we’re your biggest customer.”

“对美国来说，加拿大是一个比中国、日本、英国和法国加起来还要重要的出口市场，”她说。“你们是发明了‘客户永远是对的’这句话的国家，而我们是你们最大的客户。”

Mr. Trump may be gambling on the idea that other countries are more dependent on the U.S. market than the United States is on them. Canada sends about 80 percent of its exports to the United States, while roughly 17 percent of U.S. exports go to Canada.

特朗普可能是在赌其他国家对美国市场的依赖程度超过美国对它们的依赖程度。加拿大约80%的出口产品销往美国，而美国约17%的出口产品销往加拿大。

But being larger and more distant, the European Union and China are less reliant on American buyers. The United States is the destination for about 20 percent of E.U. exports and about 15 percent of Chinese exports.

但由于欧盟和中国幅员辽阔，距离遥远，对美国买家的依赖程度较低。欧盟约20%的出口产品、中国约15%的出口产品销往美国。

On Thursday, Canada initiated a dispute at the World Trade Organization over the steel and aluminum tariffs that Mr. Trump had imposed the day before. China initiated a suit over a separate tranche of tariffs last month. But the W.T.O. challenges are largely a symbolic gesture, since the United States disabled the organization’s dispute settlement system in Mr. Trump’s first term.

周四，加拿大就特朗普前一天征收的钢铝关税向世界贸易组织发起了申诉。中国上个月就另一批关税提起申诉。但向世贸组织的申诉在很大程度上是一种象征性的姿态，因为美国已在特朗普的第一个任期内令该组织的争端解决机制失效。

Canadian officials were expected to meet with Mr. Lutnick to discuss trade issues on Thursday. A European spokesman said Maros Sefcovic, the European Union’s trade commissioner, would talk with both Mr. Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, on Friday.

加拿大官员预计将在周四与卢特尼克会面，讨论贸易问题。欧盟一位发言人表示，欧盟贸易委员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇周五将与卢特尼克和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔进行会谈。

Jalen Brunson first experienced the fervor of the N.B.A.’s biggest international market in 2018 when, as a rookie, he traveled with the Dallas Mavericks to China for a pair of preseason games. The trip itself was brief, but the reception that Mr. Brunson and his teammates received left a lasting impression.

杰伦·布伦森第一次亲身感受到NBA最大国际市场的热情是在2018年，他当时还是一名新秀，随达拉斯独行侠队去中国参加了两场季前赛。虽然那次旅行本身很短暂，但布伦森和他的队友们受到的欢迎给他留下了难忘的印象。

“The fandom that basketball brought to that country, I thought it was really cool and interesting and something I wanted to be a part of,” Mr. Brunson said in a recent interview.

“篮球在那个国家引发的球迷热情，我觉得真的很酷、很有趣，我想成为其中的一部分，”布伦森在最近一次采访中说。

Now a star for the New York Knicks, Mr. Brunson, 28, took a crucial step toward that goal before the current N.B.A. season when his representatives at Creative Arts Agency enlisted a digital management company, East Goes Global, to create and run Chinese social media accounts for him. In the months since, Mr. Brunson has gained more than 400,000 followers across five of the country’s major apps: Bilibili, Douyin, RedNote, Weibo and WeChat.

如今，28岁的布伦森已是纽约尼克斯队的球星，在NBA本赛季开始之前，他已朝着那个目标迈出了关键一步，他在创新艺人经纪公司（简称CAA）的代表们请了一家数字管理公司East Goes Global为他在中国社交媒体上创建和管理账号。此后的几个月里，布伦森在中国五大主流应用（哔哩哔哩、抖音、小红书、微博、微信）上已收获了40多万粉丝。

Mr. Brunson is one of several N.B.A. players looking to establish an online presence in China, where millions of people follow the league closely. But given the language barrier and differing societal norms and trends — not to mention an insular Chinese internet where popular western platforms such as YouTube, Instagram and X are blocked and content is reviewed by the government — most have sought help from companies with specific expertise in navigating the digital landscape.

布伦森是想在中国建立网络影响力的几名NBA球员之一，这里有大量关心NBA赛事的球迷。但由于语言障碍，加上不同的社会规范和趋势——更不用说中国的互联网与世隔绝，YouTube、Instagram、X等流行的西方平台被屏蔽，网上内容受政府审查——大多数球星为在中国的网上运作向具有数字领域特定专业知识的公司寻求帮助。

“I think it’s important to understand your audience, and I think a lot of smart people understand what they know and what they don’t know,” Mr. Brunson said. “It was key for me to let someone else do it, because they understand more than me. Even though I am the face of it, they really run it.”

“我觉得了解你的受众很重要，我觉得很多聪明人知道他们懂什么，不懂什么，”布伦森说。“对我来说，让别人来做这个是关键，因为他们比我懂得更多。尽管上面是我的面孔，但真正运作的是他们。”

Founded in 2018 by Andrew Spalter, a former music manager who lives in Austin, Texas, East Goes Global is not alone in providing such a service. Coral Lu, a former ESPN reporter, handles the Chinese social media accounts for Kawhi Leonard of the Los Angeles Clippers and Paul George of the Philadelphia 76ers. The IMG-owned company Mailman, based in Shanghai, manages 30 accounts for 14 active players.

安德鲁·斯帕尔特在2018年创办了East Goes Global，他曾是一名音乐经理，住在得州奥斯汀。提供这类服务的不只是East Goes Global一家。曾在ESPN当记者的陆垠箐(Coral Lu)负责管理洛杉矶快船队的科怀·伦纳德和费城76人队的保罗·乔治在中国社交媒体上的账号。国际管理集团旗下的邮人体育公司总部设在上海，为14名现役球员管理着30个账号。

NBA为扩大在中国的影响力所做的努力包括参加在澳门举办的国际超越博览会等活动。

“For the player, some people are really motivated by engaging with their global audience, and in cultures where basketball is huge,” said Matthew Spalter, the chief operating officer of East Goes Global, who is Andrew’s brother. “There’s also the business perspective: ‘During my basketball career, how can I scale my business? And, post-career, how can I make sure I’m not gone forever?’”

“有些球员真的很想与他们在全球的观众互动，尤其是那些篮球文化浓厚环境下的观众，”East Goes Global的首席运营官马修·斯帕尔特说，他和安德鲁是兄弟。“还有一个商业角度的考虑：‘我如何在我的篮球生涯中扩大自己的业务？而且，在职业生涯结束后，我如何确保自己不会被人遗忘？’”

The player-led push is coming at an important time for relations between the N.B.A. and China. In October 2019, a year after Mr. Brunson’s trip, a pro-Hong Kong social media post from Daryl Morey, then the general manager of the Houston Rockets, led to China pulling N.B.A. games off national television and ending the N.B.A. China Games, which had been played annually since 2012.

这些球员推动建立网络影响力的努力发生在NBA与中国关系的一个重要时刻。2019年10月，也就是布伦森访华一年后，时任休斯顿火箭队总经理的达里尔·莫雷在社交媒体上发了一条支持香港的帖子，导致中国取消了NBA赛事的全国直播，叫停了自2012年以来每年举办的NBA中国赛。

The freeze from Mr. Morey’s post, however, has significantly thawed, and the league is planning to play two exhibition games next October in the Chinese territory of Macau. With help from groups like East Goes Global, some players will be ahead of others should the relationship between the league and China return to its previous heights.

不过，莫雷帖子引发的僵局已明显缓和，NBA正在打算明年10月在中国澳门举行两场表演赛。如果NBA与中国的关系恢复到以前的程度的话，一些球员将在East Goes Global等团体的帮助下领先一步。

The work of the groups typically begins by reaching out to the various platforms to verify the player’s accounts — and often, as with Mr. Brunson, creating them in the first place. But further measures can be required, as when the team at Mailman helped an N.B.A. All-Star client recover his page on Douyin, China’s equivalent of TikTok, after it had been taken over by a mysterious third party that was posting spam content.

这类公司的工作通常是从联系中国的各个平台认证球员账号开始，更常见的工作是为球员创建账号，布伦森的情况就是这样。但有时需要进一步的措施，比如邮人体育曾帮助一名NBA全明星球员收回了抖音（中国版TikTok）上以他的名字创建的账号，该账号曾被一个发布垃圾内容的神秘的第三方拥有。

Next comes the process of creating content for a Chinese audience. Success, according to the people involved, goes beyond simply using the native language in captions and adding trending background music.

接下来就是为中国观众制作内容。据参与这些工作的人说，要想取得成功，仅仅采用中文字幕、配上流行的背景音乐是不够的。

“Mirroring the same content on your Chinese channels as your western ones really isn’t diving deeper into that Chinese culture,” said Michael Lin, a vice president of digital at Mailman who oversees its U.S. sports operation. “Athletes do a lot better when they’re creating personalized content that’s speaking to the Chinese fans.”

“把你为西方平台制作的内容原封不动地搬到中文平台上去，表明你没有真正深入了解中国文化，”负责美国体育业务的邮人体育数字副总裁迈克尔·林（音）说。“为运动员制作能吸引他们中国粉丝的个性化内容，效果会更好。”

印第安纳步行者队的泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿将自己入选2024年NBA全明星赛首发阵容归功于他在中国社交媒体上的粉丝。

For Mr. Brunson, this has meant meeting periodically with East Goes Global staff members to film exclusive videos for his Chinese accounts, including a marathon two-hour session heading into last month’s Chinese New Year during which he sampled Chinese snacks and wrote his name in Chinese characters.

对布伦森来说，这意味着要定期与East Goes Global的工作人员见面，让他们为他的中国账号拍摄独家视频，包括在上个月的春节前夕拍摄的长达两小时的马拉松式视频，他在视频中品尝了中国小吃，还用汉字写了自己的名字。

“I thought that was really cool,” he said.

“我觉得那真的很酷，”他说。

There are numerous business possibilities for N.B.A. players in China. Some have gone on huge tours across the country. Others have signed endorsement deals with Chinese shoe companies. James Harden, a star for the Clippers, sold 10,000 bottles of wine in five seconds during a Douyin livestream.

NBA球员在中国有许多商业机会。有些球员已在中国各地参加过大型巡回赛。还有一些球员与中国鞋业公司签订了代言协议。快船队球星詹姆斯·哈登在一次抖音直播中在五秒时间里就卖出了1万瓶葡萄酒。

But Mr. Lin has noticed a particular uptick in requests from players who cite another source of motivation: getting fan votes for the All-Star Game.

但林先生注意到有一类来自球员的请求明显增多了，他们提到了另一个激励来源：为参加全明星赛争取球迷投票。

The ideal playbook, in that regard, was laid out last season, when Tyrese Haliburton of the Indiana Pacers rode a wave of Chinese social media support to lead Eastern Conference guards in fan voting, earning a surprising spot as a starter for the 2024 All-Star Game.

从这个方面来说，上个赛季印第安纳步行者队的泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿就提供了一个理想的范例。他借助来自中国社交媒体的支持，在球迷对东部后场首发球员的投票中领先，令人意外地入选了2024年全明星赛首发阵容。

“I know people see a player in Indiana and don’t expect that,” Mr. Haliburton said at the media day for that game, “but the love I’ve received from my fans in China has been amazing.”

“我知道人们看到球员来自印第安纳时不期待这个结果，”哈利伯顿在那场比赛的媒体日上说，“但我从中国球迷那里得到的爱一直是惊人的。”

According to Matthew Spalter, Mr. Brunson’s team at C.A.A. similarly approached East Goes Global about executing a “massive All-Star push” for this year’s game. The results? Even though Mr. Brunson finished third among Eastern Conference guards on fan ballots, he was named a starter under the league’s weighted voting formula, which also incorporated votes from the news media and the players.

据马修·斯帕尔特，布伦森在CAA的代表们已与East Goes Global进行了类似的接触，希望在今年的赛季发起一个“大规模的全明星助力运动”。结果怎样？尽管布伦森在球迷对东部后场全明星的投票中排名第三，但根据NBA计算投票的加权公式（其中也考虑了媒体和球员的投票），他仍入选了全明星赛首发阵容。

“I think it helped a lot, and I’m really appreciative of it,” Mr. Brunson said in February of the help from Chinese fans, adding that he planned to post a message of gratitude after the All-Star break.

“我觉得那帮了我的大忙，我真的很感激，”布伦森在今年2月谈到中国球迷的助力时说。他还表示，打算在全明星赛后发一个感谢贴。

Sure enough, a week or so later, a 44-second video was uploaded to Mr. Brunson’s account on Bilibili, China’s equivalent of YouTube. The video features behind-the-scenes footage from his trip to the game in San Francisco.

果然，大约一周后，一段44秒的视频上传到布伦森在哔哩哔哩（中国版YouTube）的账号上。视频主要是他去旧金山参加全明星赛的幕后花絮。

“Thanks to my friends at Bilibili for voting and supporting me,” the caption read — in Chinese characters, of course.

“感谢B站好友们的投票支持，”视频的标题写道——当然是用中文。

When President Trump hawked some Teslas at the White House on Tuesday, it evoked a similar scene from Beijing’s main government compound years earlier, when a top Chinese leader was also photographed alongside Elon Musk examining one of the company’s electric vehicles.

美国总统特朗普周二在白宫前叫卖特斯拉的场景，让人想起了几年前在北京的中国政府重要办公场所出现的一个类似场景，当时也有中国高层领导人与埃隆·马斯克一起查看该公司一辆电动汽车的照片。

In January 2019, China’s No. 2 official at the time, Li Keqiang, met with Mr. Musk in the Hall of Purple Light, a pavilion for foreign dignitaries inside the Communist Party’s leadership compound known as Zhongnanhai. A photograph on a Chinese government website shows Mr. Li peering at a Tesla as Mr. Musk, the company’s chief executive, looks on approvingly.

2019年1月，中国当时的二号官员李克强在紫光阁接见了马斯克，紫光阁是中共高层在他们的办公地点中南海接见外国政要的地方。发布在中国政府网站上的照片显示，李克强从车窗外仔细端详着一辆特斯拉汽车，公司首席执行官马斯克露出赞许的眼光。

During that meeting, Mr. Li said that he hoped Mr. Musk could promote the “stability of China-U.S. relations” and offered the billionaire a Chinese green card, according to the state news media outlet CGTN.

据中国官媒CGTN的英语报道，李克强在接见马斯克时说，希望特斯拉“成为中美关系稳定发展的推动者”，还提出送给这名亿万富翁“中国绿卡”。

It was a sign of how crucial China was to Tesla’s future at the time. Mr. Musk had just broken ground on a Tesla factory in Shanghai, which was granted unusually favorable conditions by the Chinese government and has since become the company’s most important manufacturing facility in the world. Beijing ensured Tesla low-interest loans, overhauled ownership rules so that the company could set up without a local partner and granted changes that Tesla had sought on emissions regulations.

那次接见是当时的中国对于特斯拉的未来何以至关重要的象征。马斯克在上海建的特斯拉工厂刚破土动工，中国政府给予了异常优惠的条件，特斯拉上海工厂现已成为公司在全球最重要的制造中心。中国政府为特斯拉建厂提供了低息贷款，改革了限制外资所有权的规定，让它无需当地合作伙伴就能在中国开展业务，并批准了特斯拉想得到的有关汽车排放标准的改革。

It was the second time that Teslas had been displayed in Zhongnanhai. A year earlier, Mr. Musk had posted a photo of himself standing in front of Teslas in the Hall of Purple Light. He had just met with Wang Qishan, China’s vice president at the time. They had a “profoundly interesting discussion of history, philosophy & luck,” Mr. Musk wrote on social media.

那是特斯拉第二次在中南海出现。一年前，马斯克曾发过一张他站在停在紫光阁外的特斯拉前的照片。他刚与中国当时的国家副主席王岐山见了面。马斯克在社交媒体上写道，他们“对历史、哲学，以及运气进行了一次极为有趣的讨论”。

These days, Tesla is struggling in both China, where sales are plunging amid fierce domestic competition, and in the United States, where Mr. Musk’s politics have set off protests and violence at Tesla dealerships and charging stations.

如今，特斯拉在中国和美国都面临困难：中国国内的激烈竞争已导致特斯拉销量暴跌，马斯克在美国的政治活动已引发了针对特斯拉经销店和充电站的抗议活动和暴力事件。

There was at least one major difference between the Beijing and Washington Tesla shows, however. At the White House, Mr. Musk donned a T-shirt and baseball cap. At Zhongnanhai, he wore a suit.

不过，在北京和华盛顿的特斯拉车展中至少有一个很大的不同。马斯克穿着T恤衫、戴着棒球帽现身白宫。他去中南海见中国领导人时穿着西装。 

The Trump administration is moving to deport Mahmoud Khalil, a permanent legal resident of the United States who recently graduated from Columbia University and had helped lead high-profile campus protests against Israel’s war in Gaza.

特朗普政府正采取行动驱逐一名美国永久合法居民马哈茂德·哈利勒，后者不久前从哥伦比亚大学毕业，参与领导了引起广泛关注的反对以色列的加沙战争的校园抗议活动。

Speaking to reporters in Ireland on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Mr. Khalil of participating in protests that he described as antisemitic and supportive of the terrorist group Hamas. Foreigners who come to the United States and do such things, he said, will have their visas or green cards revoked and be kicked out.

周三，国务卿鲁比奥在爱尔兰对记者发表讲话时，指称哈利勒参加的抗议是反犹和支持恐怖组织哈马斯的活动。他说，来美国做这种事的外国人将被吊销签证或绿卡，并被驱逐出境。

“This is not about free speech,” Mr. Rubio said. “This is about people that don’t have a right to be in the United States to begin with. No one has a right to a student visa. No one has a right to a green card, by the way.”

“这与言论自由无关，”鲁比奥说。“这是关于那些本来就没有权利在美国的人。没有人天生有权获得学生签证。顺便说一下，也没有人天生有权获得绿卡。”

Mr. Khalil’s arrest ignited protests in New York and set up a fight over free speech. Here’s what to know about the administration’s attempt to deport him.

哈利勒的被捕引发了纽约的抗议活动，并引发了一场关于言论自由的争论。以下是政府试图驱逐他的相关信息。

Who is Mahmoud Khalil?

马哈茂德·哈利勒是谁？

Mr. Khalil, 30, earned a master’s degree from Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs in December. He has Palestinian heritage and is married to an American citizen who is eight months pregnant.

30岁的哈利勒去年12月在哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务学院获得硕士学位。他有巴勒斯坦血统，妻子是美国公民，目前怀有八个月身孕。

Mr. Khalil’s lawyers say he was arrested by immigration officers on Saturday in his apartment in Manhattan even though he told the agents that he had a green card. He was then sent to a detention center in Louisiana.

哈利勒的律师说，他于周六在曼哈顿的公寓里被移民官员逮捕，尽管他当时告知自己有绿卡。随后，他被送往路易斯安那州的一个拘留中心。

At Columbia last spring, Mr. Khalil assumed a major role in student-led protests on campus against Israel’s war efforts in Gaza. He described his position as a negotiator and spokesman for Columbia University Apartheid Divest, a pro-Palestinian group.

去年春天在哥伦比亚大学的那场反对以色列的加沙战争的校园抗议活动中，哈利勒扮演了重要角色。他自称是亲巴勒斯坦组织哥伦比亚大学种族隔离撤资组织的谈判代表和发言人。

What’s the legal basis for his arrest and possible deportation?

逮捕他并可能将他驱逐出境的法律依据是什么？

Mr. Khalil has not faced any criminal charges, and deportation proceedings are a civil, not criminal, matter. In arresting Mr. Khalil and working to remove him from the United States, Mr. Rubio is relying on a provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 that gives him sweeping power to expel foreigners.

哈利勒没有面临任何刑事指控，驱逐出境程序属于民事范畴而非刑事范畴。在逮捕哈利勒并试图将他驱逐出美国的过程中，鲁比奥依据的是1952年《移民与国民法》中的一项条款，该条款赋予他驱逐外国人的广泛权力。

The provision says that any “alien whose presence or activities in the United States the secretary of state has reasonable ground to believe would have potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States is deportable.”

该条款规定，任何“国务卿有合理理由相信其在美国的存在或活动可能对美国的外交政策造成严重不利后果的外国人，均可被驱逐出境”。

The administration’s rationale for why Mr. Rubio can invoke that provision to expel Mr. Khalil, according to people with knowledge of the matter, is that the United States has a foreign policy of combating antisemitism around the world. Mr. Khalil’s presence in the United States, the people said, would undermine that objective because the protests he helped lead were antisemitic and fostered a hostile environment for Jewish students.

据知情人士透露，政府认为鲁比奥之所以能够援引这一条款驱逐哈利勒的理由是，美国的外交政策是在世界各地打击反犹。知情人士说，哈利勒身在美国会破坏这一目标，因为他帮助领导的抗议活动是反犹主义的，并为犹太学生营造了一个充满敌意的环境。

President Trump’s border czar, Thomas Homan, echoed some of that reasoning while speaking to reporters in Albany on Wednesday. He described Mr. Khalil as a “national security threat.”

特朗普总统的边境事务负责人托马斯·霍曼周三在奥尔巴尼对记者发表讲话时也呼应了其中的一些理由。他称哈利勒是“国家安全威胁”。

“When you hand out leaflets inciting violence on a college campus, that’s illegal,” Mr. Homan said. “Being in this country with a visa or a resident card is a privilege, and you got to follow certain rules.”

“如果你在大学校园里散发煽动暴力的传单，那是违法的，”霍曼说。“持有签证或居留卡在这个国家是一种优待，你必须遵守某些规定。”

At a news briefing on Tuesday, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, accused Mr. Khalil of “siding with terrorists.” She asserted that “pro-Hamas propaganda fliers” with the organization’s logo were distributed at the protests Mr. Khalil led at Columbia.

在周二的新闻发布会上，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特指责哈利勒“站在恐怖分子一边”。她断言，哈利勒领导的哥伦比亚大学抗议活动中出现了带有哈马斯标志的“亲哈马斯宣传单”。

She declined to share the purported fliers with reporters, saying that doing so would corrupt the dignity of the White House briefing room, and presented no evidence that Mr. Khalil had produced or distributed any fliers.

她拒绝与记者分享所谓的传单，称这样做会损害白宫简报室的尊严，而且没有提供证据表明哈利勒制作或分发过任何传单。

Nor have officials accused Mr. Khalil of having any contact with Hamas, taking direction from it or providing material support to it.

官员们也没有指控哈利勒与哈马斯有任何联系、曾接受哈马斯的指示或向哈马斯提供实质性的支持。

Because lawful permanent residents are protected by the Constitution — including First Amendment free-speech rights and Fifth Amendment due-process rights — the case appears likely to set up a major test of whether that statute, at least as applied to this situation, is constitutional.

因为合法永久居民受到宪法的保护——包括第一修正案的言论自由权利和第五修正案的正当程序权利——此案似乎很可能对该法规——至少对于本案的适用——是否合宪构成重大考验。

Immigration law specialists have struggled to find much guiding precedent for previous uses of the provision of the Immigration and National Act the administration is invoking.

移民法专家们很难在政府援引的《移民与国民法》条款的以往使用中找到多少指导性先例。

The Clinton administration invoked the provision in 1995 in an attempt to deport a former Mexican government official, but the constitutional issues were never resolved. The ex-official, who was in the United States on a visa, filed a lawsuit, and in 1996, a federal judge in New Jersey — Maryanne Trump Barry, the sister of the president — struck the provision down as unconstitutional, noting that it had not been interpreted in any reported judicial opinion.

1995年，克林顿政府在试图驱逐一名前墨西哥政府官员时援引了这一条款，但合宪问题从未得到解决。这名持签证在美国的前官员提起了诉讼。1996年，新泽西州的一名联邦法官——特朗普总统的姐姐玛丽安娜·特朗普·巴里——裁定该条款违宪，并指出该条款没有在任何有记录的司法意见中得到解释。

But an appeals court overturned her ruling, saying the former official had to go through the administrative immigration process before federal courts could address his case. In 1999, the Board of Immigration Appeals said the administration could use the provision to deport him, but two months later it changed course and instead indicted him. The former official died a month later, so the case ended.

但一家上诉法院推翻了她的裁决，称这位前官员必须先走行政移民程序，然后联邦法院才能审理他的案件。1999年，移民上诉委员会表示，政府可以利用这一条款将他驱逐出境，但两个月后，该委员会改变了做法，转而起诉了他。这名前官员在一个月后去世，案件就此结束。

What happens next?

接下来会发生什么？

A federal judge in Manhattan has ordered the government not to remove Mr. Khalil from the United States while his case is pending. But it is not yet clear whether that judge has jurisdiction over him now that he has been moved to Louisiana.

曼哈顿一名联邦法官命令政府在案件未决期间不要将哈利勒驱逐出美国。但目前尚不清楚这名法官是否对他有管辖权，因为他已经被转移到路易斯安那州。

The judge did not make any immediate decisions about the detention of Mr. Khalil at a hearing on Wednesday, but he did allow Mr. Khalil’s lawyer two phone calls, their first privileged contact since his arrest. A lawyer for the government said that Mr. Khalil, a legal permanent resident, has been placed in removal proceedings in Louisiana, where he is being held.

在周三的听证会上，法官没有当即就哈利勒的拘留问题做出任何决定，但他允许哈利勒的律师打了两次电话，这是他们在哈利勒被捕后的第一次特权接触。政府的一名律师表示，哈利勒是合法的永久居民，他目前被纳入路易斯安那州的驱逐程序。

Mr. Khalil’s lawyers also filed a motion on Monday asking the judge to compel the federal government to transfer him back to New York to reunite him with his wife, who is expected to give birth next month.

哈利勒的律师周一还提出了一项动议，要求法官迫使联邦政府将他转移回纽约，让他与预计将于下个月分娩的妻子团聚。

His immigration status will be decided in a separate process, presided over by an immigration judge who could determine whether to revoke Mr. Khalil’s green card. There is little precedent for deporting a legal permanent resident based on the 1952 law giving the secretary of state the power to do so on foreign policy grounds.

他的移民身份将在另一个由移民法官主持的程序中决定，该法官将决定是否撤销哈利勒的绿卡。1952年的法律赋予国务卿以外交政策为由驱逐合法永久居民的权力，但根据此法驱逐合法永久居民几乎没有先例可循。

Could this happen to other visa or green card holders?

其他签证或绿卡持有者也会面临这种情况吗？

Mr. Trump said Mr. Khalil’s case was “the first arrest of many to come.” Ms. Leavitt echoed that warning and said that Columbia had the names of others who had “engaged in pro-Hamas activity” and that the school was “refusing to help” the Homeland Security Department identify them.

特朗普表示，哈利勒案“只是第一例，后面还要抓好多”。莱维特呼应了这一警告，并表示，哥伦比亚大学有“参与亲哈马斯活动”的人员名单，但该校“拒绝帮助”国土安全部确认他们的身份。

One of Mr. Khalil’s lawyers, Amy Greer, said that homeland security agents told her they had a warrant to revoke his student visa. When she informed them that Mr. Khalil did not have one, given that he was a permanent resident, she was told that the department had revoked his green card.

哈利勒的律师之一艾米·格里尔说，国土安全人员告诉她，他们有撤销哈利勒学生签证的授权令。当她告诉他们，哈利勒是永久居民，不持学生签证时，她被告知，移民局已经吊销了他的绿卡。

What has Mr. Trump said about pro-Palestinian protesters?

关于亲巴勒斯坦抗议者，特朗普曾发表过什么言论？

Since 2023, Mr. Trump has repeatedly vowed to revoke visas of international students who participate in pro-Palestinian protests and criticize Israel’s war efforts.

自2023年以来，特朗普一再发誓要吊销参加亲巴勒斯坦抗议活动和批评以色列战争行动的国际学生的签证。

“Americans have been disgusted to see the open support for terrorists among the legions of foreign nationals on college campuses,” Mr. Trump declared at a rally in Iowa on Oct. 16, 2023. “They’re teaching your children hate.”

2023年10月16日，特朗普在艾奥瓦州的一次集会上宣布，“看到大学校园里大量外国人公开支持恐怖分子，美国人感到厌恶。他们在教你的孩子仇恨。”

He added: “Under the Trump administration, we will revoke the student visas of radical, anti-American and antisemitic foreigners at our colleges and universities, and we will send them straight back home.”

他还说：“在特朗普政府的领导下，我们将撤销我们学院和大学里激进的、反美和反犹的外国人的学生签证，我们会把他们直接遣送回国。”

At a speech in Las Vegas on Oct. 28 of that year, Mr. Trump said that “we’ll terminate the visas of all of those Hamas sympathizers, and we’ll get them off our college campuses, out of our cities and get them the hell out of our country.”

同年10月28日，在拉斯维加斯的演讲中，特朗普说，“我们将终止所有哈马斯同情者的签证，我们将把他们赶出我们的大学校园，赶出我们的城市，把他们赶出我们的国家。”

If you are confused by President Trump’s zigzagging strategies on Ukraine, tariffs, microchips or a host of other issues, it is not your fault. It’s his. What you are seeing is a president who ran for re-election to avoid criminal prosecution and to get revenge on people he falsely accused of stealing the 2020 election. He never had a coherent theory of the biggest trends in the world today and how to best align America with them to thrive in the 21st century. That is not why he ran.

如果你对特朗普总统在乌克兰问题、关税、芯片或其他诸多问题上反复无常的策略感到困惑，那不是你的问题。是他的。你所看到的这位总统，竞选第二任期是为了逃避刑事诉讼而，并报复那些他无端指责在2020年大选中“窃取”了选票的人。他从未有条理地论述过当今世界的重大趋势，以及如何让美国顺应这一趋势，从而在21世纪蓬勃发展。他参选的初衷可不是这个。

And once he won, Trump brought back his old obsessions and grievances — with tariffs and Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky and Canada — and staffed his administration with an extraordinary number of fringe ideologues who met one overriding criterion: loyalty first and always to Trump and his whims over and above the Constitution, traditional values of American foreign policy or basic laws of economics.

赢得大选后，特朗普立刻重拾他旧有的执念和怨恨——包括对关税、普京、泽连斯基以及加拿大等等。他组建的政府充斥着数量惊人的极端意识形态分子，这些人符合一个首要且唯一的标准：始终把对特朗普及其突发奇想的忠诚置于对宪法、美国外交政策传统价值观或基本经济法则的忠诚之上。

The result is what you are seeing today: a crazy cocktail of on-again-off-again tariffs, on-again-off-again assistance for Ukraine, on-again-off-again cuts in government departments and programs both domestic and foreign — conflicting edicts all carried out by cabinet secretaries and staff members who are united by a fear of being tweeted about by Elon Musk or Trump should they deviate from whatever policy line emerged unfiltered in the last five minutes from our Dear Leader’s social media feed.

结果就是你如今所看到的：时而实施时而取消的关税、时而支持时而中断对乌克兰的援助、时而削减时而恢复国内外政府部门和项目开支，各种相互矛盾的指令层出不穷。而内阁部长和幕僚们之所以会执行这些指令，是因为他们都心怀恐惧，担心一旦偏离了我们这位“敬爱的领袖”在社交媒体上刚刚发布的任何政策路线，就会遭到埃隆·马斯克或特朗普发推指责。

Four years of this will not work, folks.

各位，这样的状况持续四年是行不通的。

Our markets will have a nervous breakdown from uncertainty, our entrepreneurs will have a nervous breakdown, our manufacturers will have a nervous breakdown, our investors — foreign and domestic — will have a nervous breakdown, our allies will have a nervous breakdown and we’re going to give the rest of the world a nervous breakdown.

我们的市场会因不确定性而陷入崩溃，我们的企业家会精神崩溃，我们的制造商也会精神崩溃，我们国内外的投资者都会精神崩溃，我们的盟友会精神崩溃，而且我们还会让世界其他国家也陷入精神崩溃。

You cannot run a country, you cannot be an American ally, you cannot run a business and you cannot be a long-term American trading partner when, in a short period, the U.S. president threatens Ukraine, threatens Russia, withdraws his threat to Russia, threatens huge tariffs on Mexico and Canada and postpones them — again — doubles tariffs on China and threatens to impose even more on Europe and Canada.

当美国总统在短时间内先是威胁乌克兰，接着威胁俄罗斯，然后又撤回对俄罗斯的威胁，威胁要对墨西哥和加拿大征收高额关税，随后又再次推迟征收，对中国大幅提高关税，还威胁要对欧洲和加拿大加征更多关税时，你就无法管理好一个国家，无法成为美国的盟友，无法经营好一家企业，也无法成为美国的长期贸易伙伴。

Top officials of our oldest allies say privately they fear that we are becoming not just unstable, but actually their enemy. The only person who gets treated with kid gloves is Putin, and America’s traditional friends are in shock.

我们最亲密盟友的高层官员私下表示，他们担心我们不仅变得不稳定，甚至实际上正在成为他们的敌人。唯一受到温柔对待的人是普京，而美国的传统盟友们都感到震惊不已。

But here is Trump’s biggest lie of all his big lies: He claims that he inherited an economy in ruins and that’s why he has to do all of these things. Nonsense. Joe Biden got a lot of things wrong, but by the end of his term, with the help of a wise Federal Reserve, the Biden economy was actually in pretty good shape and trending in the right direction. America certainly did not need global tariff shock therapy.

但在特朗普所有的弥天大谎中，这是最大的一个：他声称自己接手的是一个千疮百孔的经济，所以才不得不采取这些举措。简直是无稽之谈。乔·拜登确实犯了不少错误，但在明智的美联储的帮助下，美国经济在他的任期结束时实际上状况相当不错，并且朝着正确的方向发展。美国绝对不需要全球关税休克疗法。

Corporate and household balance sheets were relatively healthy, oil prices were on the low side, unemployment was around only 4 percent, consumer spending was rising and G.D.P. growth was around 2 percent. We definitely needed to address the trade imbalance with China — Trump has been right about that all along — but that was really the only urgent agenda item, and we could have done that with targeted tariff increases on Beijing, coordinated with our allies doing the same, which is how you get Beijing to move.

企业和家庭的资产负债表相对健康，油价处于低位，失业率仅在4%左右，消费者支出在增加，国内生产总值增长率约为2%。我们确实需要解决与中国的贸易失衡问题——在这一点上特朗普一直是正确的——但这实际上是唯一紧迫的议程。而且我们本可以有针对性地对中国提高关税，并协调我们的盟友采取同样的行动，这才是促使中国做出改变的正确方式。

Now economists fear that the profound uncertainty Trump is injecting into the economy could drive down interest rates for all the wrong reasons — because of so much investor uncertainty driving down growth, both here and abroad. Or we could get an even worse combination: the combination of stagnant growth and inflation (from so many tariffs) known as stagflation.

现在，经济学家们担心，特朗普给经济注入的这种巨大不确定性可能会因为一些错误的原因而导致利率下降——因为太多的投资者因不确定性而降低了国内外的经济增长预期。或者我们可能会面临更糟糕的情况：经济增长停滞和通货膨胀（由众多关税引发）并存，也就是所谓的滞胀。

But this is not just your grandfather’s cyclical economic uncertainty Trump has triggered. This is the uncertainty that cuts to the bone, the uncertainty that comes from seeing a world that you knew for 80 years being unraveled by the most powerful player — who doesn’t know what he is doing and is surrounded by bobbleheads.

但特朗普引发的这种不确定性并非爷爷奶奶辈的那种周期性的经济不确定性。这是一种深入骨髓的不确定性，来自你眼睁睁看着一个80年来自己所熟知的世界，被世上最强大的人物——一个不知道自己在做什么且身边围绕着一群唯唯诺诺之辈的人——所瓦解。

The world has enjoyed an extraordinary period of economic growth and absence of great-power wars since 1945. Of course, it was not perfect, and there have been many troubled years and countries that lagged. But in the broad sweep of world history, these 80 years have been remarkably peaceful and prosperous for a lot of people, in a lot of places.

自1945年以来，世界经历了一段非凡的经济增长时期，并且没有发生过大国之间的战争。当然，它并非十全十美，也有许多动荡不安的年份，还有一些国家发展滞后。但从世界历史的宏观角度来看，这80年对很多地方的很多人来说，都是相当和平与繁荣的。

And the No. 1 reason that the world was the way it was, was because America was the way it was.

而世界之所以呈现出这样的局面，最主要的原因就在于美国的地位。

That America was summed up by two lines in John F. Kennedy’s Inaugural Address on Jan. 20, 1961: “Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”

1961年1月20日，约翰·F·肯尼迪在就职演说中的两句话很好地总结了当时的美国：“让每一个国家都知道，无论它对我们怀有善意还是恶意，为确保自由的存在与胜利，我们将付出一切代价，背负一切重担，应对一切艰难，支持一切朋友，反抗一切敌人。”

And: “So, my fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world, ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”

还有：“所以，我的美国同胞们，不要问你们的国家能为你们做些什么，而要问你们能为自己的国家做些什么。全世界的公民们，不要问美国将为你们做些什么，而要问我们共同能为人类的自由做些什么。”

Trump and his vacuous vice president, JD Vance, have completely turned Kennedy’s call on its head. The Trump-Vance version is:

特朗普和他那空洞无物的副总统JD·万斯，完全颠倒了肯尼迪的号召。特朗普-万斯版本是这样的：

Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that today’s America will pay no price, bear no burden, incur no hardship, and it will abandon any friends and cuddle up to any foes in order to assure the Trump administration’s political survival — even if it means the abandonment of liberty wherever that be profitable or convenient for us.

让每一个国家都知道，无论它对我们怀有善意还是恶意，如今的美国不会付出任何代价，不会背负任何重担，不会应对任何艰难，而且为了确保特朗普政府的政治存续，它会抛弃任何朋友，向任何敌人献媚——哪怕这意味着只要对我们有利或方便，就可以在任何地方放弃自由。

So, my fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for President Trump. And my fellow citizens of the world, ask not what America will do for you, ask how much you are ready to pay for America to defend your freedom from Russia or China.

所以，我的美国同胞们，不要问你们的国家能为你们做些什么，而要问你们能为特朗普总统做些什么。全世界的公民们，不要问美国将为你们做些什么，而要问你们准备好为让美国保护你们免受俄罗斯或中国的威胁而付出多少代价。

When a country as central as America — one that has played the critical stabilizing role since 1945, acting through institutions like NATO, the World Health Organization, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, and, yes, paying a bigger share than others to make the pie much bigger, which benefited us most because we had the biggest slice — when a country like ours suddenly departs from that role and becomes a predator on this system, watch out.

像美国这样至关重要的国家——自1945年以来一直通过北约、世界卫生组织、世界银行和世界贸易组织等机构发挥着关键的稳定作用，并且确实比其他国家承担了更多的责任以做大蛋糕，而我们因为份额最大从中受益最多——当这样一个国家突然背离其角色，成为这个体系的掠夺者时，大家可要当心了。

To the extent Trump has manifested any discernible, consistent foreign policy philosophy, it is one that he never campaigned on and has no parallel in history.

如果说特朗普有什么可以辨识且始终如一的外交政策理念的话，那也是他从未在竞选时宣扬过的、而且在历史上也绝无仅有的理念。

“Trump is an isolationist-imperialist,” Nahum Barnea, a columnist for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, remarked to me the other day. He wants all the benefits of imperialism, including your territory and your minerals, without sending any U.S. troops or paying any compensation.

以色列《新消息报》的专栏作家纳胡姆·巴内亚近日对我说：“特朗普是一个孤立主义-帝国主义者。”他想要得到帝国主义的所有好处，包括他国的领土和矿产资源，却不想派遣任何美国军队，也不想支付任何补偿。

I would call Trump’s foreign policy philosophy not “containment” or “engagement,” but “smash and grab.” Trump aspires to be a geopolitical shoplifter. He wants to stuff his pockets with Greenland, Panama, Canada and Gaza — just grab them off the shelves, without paying — and then run back to his American safe house. Our postwar allies have never seen this America before.

我不会把特朗普的外交政策理念称为“遏制”或“接触”，而会称之为“打砸抢”。特朗普一心想成为地缘政治上的小偷。他想把格陵兰岛、巴拿马、加拿大和加沙地带都据为己有——就像把它们从货架上取下来一样，不付出任何代价——然后跑回他在美国的“安全庇护所”。我们“二战”后的盟友们从未见过这样的美国。

If Trump wants to take America on a 180-degree turn, he owes it to the country to have a coherent plan, based on sound economics and a team that represents the best and the brightest, not the most sycophantic and right-wing woke. And he owes us an explanation of exactly how purging professional staff from key bureaucracies that keep the nation running from administration to administration, whether at the Justice Department or the I.R.S., and appointing fringe ideologues to key positions is good for the country and not just him.

如果特朗普想让美国来个180度大转弯，他就应该基于合理的经济学理论制定出一套连贯的计划，并且组建一个由最优秀、最杰出的人才组成的团队，而不是那些最会谄媚且极端右翼的人。他还应该向我们解释清楚，将那些让国家在不同政府更迭期间都能正常运转的关键机构（无论是司法部还是国税局）的专业人员清除出去，然后任命一些极端意识形态分子担任关键职位，到底对国家有什么好处，而不仅仅是对他自己有好处。

And most of all — most of all — he owes every American, irrespective of party, some basic human decency. The only way any president can remotely succeed in any such radical turn, or even a lesser one, is if he reaches out to his opponents and at least tries to bring them along as much as possible. I get it, they are angry. But Trump is president. He should be bigger than them.

最重要的是——最重要的是——他应该让每一个美国人，无论其所属党派，看到最基本的为人的体面。任何一位总统想要在这样的激进转变中取得哪怕是一点成功，或者即使是较小幅度的转变，唯一的办法就是向他的反对者伸出橄榄枝，至少要尽可能地争取他们的支持。我理解，他们很愤怒。但特朗普是总统，他应该比他们更大度。

Alas, though, that is not Trump. What Leon Wieseltier once said of Benjamin Netanyahu is doubly true of Trump: He is such a small man, in such a big time.

唉，可特朗普不是这样的人。利昂·维泽尔蒂尔曾评价本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的话在特朗普身上更是加倍适用：他是一个如此渺小的人，却身处如此重大的时代。

If it is the contrast with Kennedy’s inaugural speech that depresses me most today, it is Lincoln’s January 1838 speech to the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Ill., that haunts me most — particularly his warning that the only power that can destroy us is ourselves, by our abuse of our most cherished institutions, and by our abuse of one another.

如果说与肯尼迪就职演说的对比是如今最让我沮丧的事情，那么林肯1838年1月在伊利诺伊州斯普林菲尔德青年男子学园的演讲则最让我难以忘怀——尤其是他的警告：唯一能够摧毁我们的力量就是我们自己，通过滥用我们最珍视的制度，以及相互伤害。

“At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected?” Lincoln asked. “I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time or die by suicide.”

“那么，危险何时会降临呢？”林肯问道，“我的答案是，如果危险真的降临到我们头上，那它一定是从我们内部产生的。它不可能来自国外。如果我们注定要灭亡，那我们自己必然是罪魁祸首和终结者。作为一个自由的民族，我们要么永远生存下去，要么自取灭亡。”

If those words don’t haunt you too, you’re not paying attention.

但凡稍有知觉的人，都会时时念起这番话。

Bit by bit, the traces of Shanghai’s coronavirus lockdown in 2022 have disappeared from around Fu Aiying’s stir-fry restaurant. The smell of rotten eggs, from when officials carted her off to quarantine without letting her refrigerate her groceries, is long gone. The testing booths manned by workers in hazmat suits have been dismantled.

在上海，2022年因为新冠疫情封城的痕迹已经一点一点地从付爱英（音）的炒菜馆周围消失了。臭鸡蛋的味道早就没有了，当时她被强行带走送去隔离，甚至来不及把食物冷藏储存。身穿防护服的工作人员值守的检测亭也已经拆除。

Even her neighbors have moved away, from the century-old neighborhood that had one of the city’s highest infection rates. Soon, the neighborhood itself will vanish: Officials have slated it for demolition, saying that its cramped houses had helped the virus spread. Ms. Fu’s restaurant is one of the few businesses still open, in a row of darkened storefronts and caution signs taped to doorways.

就连她的邻居们也都搬走了，这是一个有上百年历史的街区，当时是上海感染最严重的地方。很快，就连这个社区也将不复存在：官方已经将这里列入了拆迁计划，称这里狭窄拥挤的房屋曾经助长病毒的传播。在一排门口贴着警示标志、昏暗的门脸中间，付爱英的餐馆是仍开门营业的几个商家之一。

But the boarded-up windows have done little to contain the emotional legacy of that time, a grueling, monthslong lockdown of 26 million people. Some residents, who had prided themselves on living in China’s wealthiest city, found themselves unable to buy food or medicine. They wondered when they might be dragged off to quarantine, forcibly separated from their children.

然而，那些用木板封住的窗户难掩那段时期给人们留下的情感创伤。当时，长达数月的封城让2600万人饱受磨难。一些曾为自己生活在中国最富裕的城市而自豪的居民发现自己竟然买不到食物和药品。他们不知道自己什么时候会被拉去隔离，被迫与尚未成年的子女分离。

梦花街是上海有着百年历史的老街区。官方已经将这里列入了拆迁计划，称这里狭窄拥挤的房屋当时助长了病毒的传播。

Ms. Fu spent 39 days in a mass quarantine center, with no idea of when she’d be allowed out. After she was finally released into the still-locked-down city, she had to sneak into her restaurant for rice and oil, because she didn’t have enough food at home.

付爱英在一处大型隔离中心关了39天，完全不知道自己何时能出去。当她最终离开隔离点、回到仍处于封锁状态的城市后，由于家里食物不够，她不得不偷偷溜进自己的餐馆去拿米和油。

She felt like a part of her had been permanently dulled. “Since my time in quarantine, I don’t have a temper anymore. I don’t have a personality anymore,” said Ms. Fu, 58, tearing up.

她觉得自己的一部分已经永远地变麻木了。“从我这个方舱我都没脾气了，也没性格了，”58岁的付爱英噙着眼泪说。

Perhaps no country was as deeply reshaped by the pandemic as China, where the outbreak began in the central city of Wuhan five years ago. For three years afterward, longer than anywhere else, the Chinese government sealed the country’s borders. In the final year, 2022, it declared an especially harsh “zero-tolerance” policy for infections, imposing lockdowns like the one in Shanghai, nationwide. Officials insisted on the restrictions even as the rest of the world decided to reopen and live with the virus.

也许没有哪个国家像中国一样被这次疫情深刻地改变，五年前，疫情在中部城市武汉暴发。此后三年里，中国政府封锁国境的时间比其他任何地方都长。在最后一年，也就是2022年，中国政府宣布采取极为严厉的“清零”政策，在全国范围内实施类似上海的封锁措施。即使世界其他国家决定重新开放、与病毒共存后，中国官员仍坚持实施这些限制。

Years later, the shadow of that experience still lingers. In another Shanghai neighborhood, which held the dubious distinction of being locked down the longest — 91 days — one woman said shortages during that time had once forced her to pay $11 for a head of cabbage. She now stockpiles at least a week’s worth of groceries.

几年时间过去了，那段经历留下的阴影依旧挥之不去。在上海另一个有着被封锁时间最长（长达91天）这一“殊荣”的社区，一位女士说，当时物资匮乏，她不得不花80元买一颗卷心菜。现在，她总要囤积至少够吃一周的食品杂货。

Another woman, Yan Beibei, a college counselor in her 30s, once planned to buy a house in Shanghai’s more affordable outskirts. But during the lockdown, her neighbors helped ensure that she had food. Now, she wants to stay near people she trusts, even if that means delaying homeownership.

30多岁的大学辅导员严蓓蓓（音）曾计划在上海郊区买房，因为那里的房价会更便宜一点。但是在封城期间，邻居帮她搞到了食物。现在，她想住在自己信任的人附近，即使这意味买房的计划要延后。

“You have to figure out which places feel safer,” she said.

她说：“你还是会发现哪个地方更安全。”

疫情期间，政府在全国都扩大了监控范围，以追踪居民的动向。

Before the pandemic, the ruling Communist Party’s controls could feel distant to many Chinese, or a worthwhile trade-off for the country’s huge economic gains. But the lockdowns made clear that the party was willing to sacrifice those gains, and people’s safety more broadly, at the whims of one man, Xi Jinping.

在疫情发生之前，许多中国人可能会觉得共产党的控制措施跟自己没有什么关系，或者认为那是为了换取国家巨大的经济成果而值得付出的代价。但疫情期间的封锁举动清楚地表明，共产党愿意牺牲这些成果，牺牲更广泛意义上的人民安全，只因为习近平的独断专行。

Local governments spent tens of billions of dollars on testing, vaccination, payments to health care workers and other related costs in 2022 alone, according to incomplete budget reports. Still struggling to recover financially, some localities have delayed payments to civil servants or cut benefits to retirees. Hospitals have gone bankrupt.

根据不完整的预算报告，仅在2022年，地方政府在核酸检测、疫苗接种、医护人员的酬劳以及其他相关费用上的开支就高达数千亿元。一些地区的财政状况至今仍未恢复，一些地区延迟支付公务员的薪酬或削减退休人员的福利。有的医院破产倒闭。

Ordinary people are hesitant to spend money, too. Many saw their savings dwindle as the lockdowns forced companies and factories to shut down. Empty storefronts are a common sight even in major city centers. Ms. Fu, the restaurant owner, said business was half what it had been before the pandemic.

普通民众也对消费持谨慎态度。由于封锁措施迫使企业和工厂停工，许多人坐吃山空，积蓄不断减少。即使在大城市的市中心，空荡荡的店面也随处可见。付爱英说，她现在的生意只有疫情前的一半。

Still, Ms. Fu did not want to dwell on her memories. “Even thinking about it is painful,” she said. “Let’s not talk about it.”

尽管如此，付爱英并不想总回忆起那段日子。“想想都真难受。别提了，”她说。

2022年街头爆发抗议期间，警方在上海乌鲁木齐路等地区部署了大量警力。

The silence may be a coping mechanism for some residents. But it is also carefully enforced by the Chinese government. The restrictions at times set off intense public anger, including the biggest protests in decades.

沉默可能是某些民众的应对之道。但这也是中国政府严加执行的结果。这些限制措施有时会引发公众的强烈愤怒，包括几十年来最大规模的抗议活动。

The government has worked to squelch any discussion about its response to the pandemic, let alone attempts to reckon with it. Art exhibits about the lockdowns have been shut down. Even today, many social media users use code words like “face mask era” to avoid censorship.

中国政府一直努力压制任何有关防疫措施的讨论，更不用说对这些举措进行反思了。有关疫情封锁的艺术展览已被关停。即便在今天，许多社交媒体用户仍会用诸如“口罩时期”之类的代号来规避审查。

The government has also not pulled back much of the expanded surveillance it introduced then. It has urged cities to hire more neighborhood workers who were in charge of tracking residents’ movements during the pandemic, to strengthen monitoring of public sentiment.

而且，中国政府也未取消当时所推行的大部分扩大化的监控措施。当时它要求各地方雇佣更多在疫情期间负责追踪居民行动轨迹的社区工作人员，以加强对公众情绪的监测。

On Shanghai’s Urumqi Road, where some of the biggest protests occurred, in 2022, a police truck is still parked at a busy intersection of hip boutiques and restaurants. Some workers at businesses there declined to discuss the pandemic, citing the political sensitivity.

在上海的乌鲁木齐路——2022年，这里曾发生了一些规模最大的抗议活动，一辆警车仍然停在一个繁忙的路口，附近是时髦的精品店和餐馆。这些商家的一些工作人员以话题敏感为由不愿讨论疫情。

曾发生过抗议活动的乌鲁木齐路一带至今仍有警车在密切监视。这些抗议活动由对疫情限制措施的愤怒引发，是中国几十年来最大规模的抗议活动。

But silence is not the same thing as forgetting. Many Chinese were shaken by the seeming arbitrariness of the restrictions, as well as the abruptness of the government’s decision, in December 2022, to end them. The government had not stockpiled medicine or warned medical professionals before doing so, and hospitals were overwhelmed as infections skyrocketed.

但沉默不等于遗忘。许多中国人对这些限制措施看起来颇为随意的实施方式以及政府在2022年12月突然放开的决定深感震惊。政府在放开之前没有做好药品储备工作，也没有提前告知医护人员，随着感染人数激增，医院不堪重负。

The mother of Carol Ding, a 57-year-old accountant, fell sick in that wave. Ms. Ding managed to secure her mother a much-sought-after hospital bed — other patients slept in the hallways or were turned away, Ms. Ding recalled — but the hospital didn’t have enough medicine. Her mother died.

57岁的财务人员卡罗尔·丁（音）的母亲在那波疫情中感染了。她想方设法给母亲在医院弄到了一张病床——许多患者不是睡在走廊上就是被拒绝收治，但那家医院也没有足够的药品。她的母亲后来去世了。

“If you had so much power to lock people down, you should have the power to prepare medicine,” Ms. Ding said.

“你有这点力气去封控，那你就应该有这点力气去（准备）药物，”丁女士说。

She added that time had done little to ease her emotional pain. “I think it’ll take at least 10 years for all this to go away or be diluted,” she said.

她还说，时间并没有减轻她内心的痛苦。“我觉得起码要10年再能算能够就是消除，就是淡化这些东西，”她说。

上海的一家医院，摄于2023年1月。2022年12月中国突然解除疫情防控措施后，新冠病毒迅速传播，许多医院都像这样样因患者激增不堪重负。

To the casual observer, these pandemic aftershocks may not be immediately evident. Tourists once again stroll Shanghai’s glittering Bund waterfront. Hipster coffee shops and soup dumpling joints are again drawing long lines of customers.

对于漫不经心的旁观者来说，疫情带来的余波可能不会立刻显现出来。在上海光彩夺目的外滩，游客又纷至沓来。时髦的咖啡馆和卖小笼包的馆子又出现了排队的人群。

The apparent bustle, though, masks a struggling economy. With well-paying jobs hard to find, more and more people have turned to gig work. But their earnings have fallen as their ranks have grown. And they’re scrambling for fewer and fewer dollars, as people cut down on spending.

然而，热闹的表象之下是经济的困境。由于薪水好的工作很难找，越来越多的人转向零工经济。但随着相关从业者增加，他们的收入已经在下降了。而且，随着人们谨慎开支，大家为了越来越少的收入而拼命竞争。

Lu Yongjie, who runs a parcel delivery station in a working-class neighborhood of Shanghai, said shipping companies once paid him 20 cents per package. That has now fallen to about 14 cents, he said.

在上海一个工薪阶层社区，陆永杰（音）经营着一个快递点。他说，快递公司以前每个包裹给他一块五，现在只有一块钱了。

Still, he had to accept the lower prices: “If you don’t do it, someone else will.”

不过，他只能接受较低的价格：“你不做他们也能做。”

If there is a cure for China’s post-Covid hangover, it may lie with what propelled the country’s prepandemic rise: the doggedness and ambition of ordinary people, like Marco Ma, a 40-year-old restaurant owner.

如果说有什么东西能够治愈中国的新冠后遗症，那可能正是曾经推动这个国家在疫情之前崛起的东西：普通人身上的坚韧和抱负，40岁的餐馆老板马可·马（音）就是这样的人之一。

上海的一个购物中心外，当年的核酸检测亭改造成了卖彩票的地方。

Since the pandemic, Mr. Ma had shut down four of the six locations of his Korean street food restaurant. His fourth-grade son, once a star pupil, now struggled with paying attention, which Mr. Ma attributed to extended online schooling. He kept expecting the next year to be better, but, in reality, business only got worse.

他本来经营着六家韩式街头小吃店，疫情以来已经关闭了四家。他上四年级的儿子本来是班上的尖子生，现在却难以集中注意力，马先生认为，这是因为长时间上网课导致的。他一直期待着新的一年会更好，但实际上，生意却每况愈下。

Still, “I think 2025 will be a turning point,” he said. “You grab onto whatever pieces of news, or whatever to cheer yourself up. What can you do? You have to keep living.”

即便如此，“希望25年然后给我一个契机，什么一会儿一个新闻，或者一个一会儿一个什么，给自己打气，没办法，你必须要活着，”他说。

Tesla is getting crushed in China, its most important market outside the United States and one that it had dominated for years.

中国是特斯拉在美国以外最重要的市场，多年来，它在那里一直占据主导地位。

When Liu Jie, 32, decided to buy an electric car in October, Tesla was one of her top choices. But after test-driving a few Chinese cars, she went with a sports sedan from Xiaomi, a consumer gadget maker better known for its smartphones, kettles and robot vacuums.

今年10月，32岁的刘洁（音）决定买一辆电动汽车，特斯拉是她的首选之一。但在试驾了几辆中国汽车后，她选择了小米的一款运动型轿车。小米是一家以生产智能手机、电水壶和扫地机而闻名的消费电子产品制造商。

“Xiaomi is more fashionable,” Ms. Liu said last week in Beijing. “Tesla, for me, it’s a little bit normal. You can see the Tesla Model Y everywhere.”

“小米更时尚，”刘洁上周在北京说。“特斯拉，对我来说，有点普通。到处都是特斯拉Model Y。”

It’s not personal, buyers said. Tesla is still considered a top brand, and Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, is admired in China. Beijing rolled out the red carpet when he broke ground on the company’s first overseas factory in Shanghai. Mr. Musk is credited with igniting China’s local electric vehicle industry.

买主们说这只是就事论事。特斯拉仍被视为顶级品牌，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在中国也很受尊敬。当他在上海出席该公司第一家海外工厂的开工仪式时，中国政府为他铺上了红毯。马斯克被誉引燃中国本土电动汽车行业的人。

But now that market is a blood bath of competition from Chinese rivals. Chinese drivers that once flocked to Tesla are turning more and more to local brands that offer more efficient cars with better technology, sometimes at half the price.

但现在，这个市场充满来自中国对手的血雨腥风。曾经对特斯拉趋之若鹜的中国车主正越来越多地转向本土品牌，这些本土品牌提供更高效、更科技的汽车，有时价格只有特斯拉的一半。

Tesla’s biggest rival, the electric car giant BYD, sold 481,318 cars in the first two months of this year, over three quarters more than it did over the same period last year. Tesla sold 60,480 vehicles in the first two months of the year, a drop of 14 percent from last year.

特斯拉最大的竞争对手、电动汽车巨头比亚迪在今年前两个月售出了481318辆汽车，比去年同期增长了四分之三以上。特斯拉在今年头两个月售出了60480辆汽车，比去年同期下降了14%。

上个月，一辆特斯拉Model Y停在北京的一个配送中心。特斯拉在中国仍然被视为顶级品牌，但现在来自中国对手的竞争更加激烈。

Tesla’s sales in China are plunging as the carmaker faces criticism over Mr. Musk’s role as an aide to President Trump in charge of cutting federal spending. Tesla lost about a quarter of its value over the past month as investors shunned the stock.

就在马斯克成为特朗普总统的助手、负责削减联邦开支的时候，特斯拉在中国的销量正大幅下降。由于投资者回避特斯拉股票，该公司在过去一个月损失了近三分之一的市值。

The threat that BYD poses Tesla in China has been building for years. BYD has sold around one million more cars each year for the past three years. The popularity of BYD has been driven in part by the fact that its cars are cheaper. It has helped that local governments sometimes steer business in the company’s direction.

在中国，比亚迪对特斯拉的威胁已经持续多年。过去三年中，比亚迪每年的汽车销量增加都在大约100万辆。比亚迪之所以受欢迎，部分原因在于它的汽车更便宜。地方政府有时会引导业务向比亚迪的方向发展，也起到了帮助作用。

But a property crisis and a broadly slowing consumer economy have hit households and badly dented people’s appetite to shop, making it hard for all carmakers. Things have become so bad that the government began offering subsidies a year ago for consumers to trade in their old cars. The government increased the incentives last week. Domestic companies have benefited from the subsidies, but so has Tesla.

但房地产危机和消费经济普遍放缓打击了家庭，严重削弱了人们的购物欲望，使所有汽车制造商都举步维艰。情况变得如此糟糕，以至于政府在一年前开始为消费者提供旧车置换补贴。政府上周还增加了激励措施。国内企业可以从补贴中受益，但特斯拉也是如此。

Even amid the economic slowdown, there is still a market for luxury cars, for those who can afford them. Ms. Liu, who had a budget of around $41,000, said Tesla would have been an affordable luxury option compared with the $41,305 Xiaomi SU7 Max that she bought. And while Tesla offers a five-year zero-interest loan, Xiaomi does not offer any financing.

即使在经济放缓的情况下，对于买得起的人来说，豪华车仍然有市场。刘洁的预算约为29万元，她说，与她买的29.99万元的SU7 Max相比，特斯拉也是一个可负担的奢侈选项。尽管特斯拉提供五年期免息贷款，而小米不提供任何贷款。

Many Chinese drivers are also willing to pay more for advanced technology like self-driving, an area in which Tesla has lagged because the government has delayed the company’s introduction of similar or better technology.

许多中国司机也愿意为自动驾驶等先进技术支付更高的价格，而特斯拉在这一领域一直落后，因为政府推迟了该公司类似或更好的技术的推出。

But Tesla faces another problem: demand. Sales are slowing for all cars in China.

但特斯拉面临着另一个问题：需求。中国所有汽车的销量都在放缓。

2024年北京车展上展出的小米SU7的内部。

The policies aimed at replacing gas guzzlers with electric vehicles have helped. In cities like Shanghai and Beijing, car owners can trade in older cars for a new one and get a nearly $2,100 subsidy. In some Tesla dealerships, employees have created a wall with photos of the cars that buyers have traded in — they range from Porsches to Mercedeses and even the occasional Chinese car.

这跟旨在用电动汽车取代高油耗汽车的政策有一定关系。在上海和北京等城市，车主可以以旧车换新车，并获得1.5万元的补贴。在一些特斯拉经销店，员工们在墙上贴满了被买家换下的汽车照片——从保时捷到梅赛德斯，甚至偶尔还有中国车。

But trading in an old car for a new one is usually a one-time thing.

但是以旧换新通常是一次性的。

For many dealers, it is getting harder to sell any car. “It was OK two years ago, but now the market is saturated,” said Chen Jiaming, a salesperson at an FAW-Volkswagen dealership in Shanghai, a collaboration of the Volkswagen Group with the state-owned FAW Group.

许多经销商觉得卖车越来越难了。“两年前还可以，但现在市场已经饱和了，”上海一汽大众经销店的销售人员陈家明（音）说。这家经销店是大众集团与国有的一汽集团合作经营的。

Mr. Chen works out of the “New Energy Vehicle Block,” in the basement of a mall near Shanghai’s Zhongshan Park that was converted from a food court three years ago when electric vehicles first took off in China.

陈家明在“新能源汽车区”工作，它位于上海中山公园附近一个购物中心的地下室，该中心在三年前由一个美食广场改造而成，当时正值电动汽车在中国兴起。

Some of the one dozen dealerships in the basement of the mall have already left, the lights inside were turned off on a recent weekday. A row of claw machines lit up another empty space. In order to keep the FAW-VW dealership from closing, the mall gave it seven months of free rent, Mr. Chen said.

最近一个工作日，商场地下室的十几个经销商中有些已经离开，里面的灯是熄灭的。一排抓娃娃机照亮了另一片空地。陈家明说，为了不让一汽大众经销店关门，商场给了它七个月的免租金待遇。

“I think Tesla’s competitiveness in China will only last for the next two or three years at most,” said Mr. Chen, who owns a BYD. Tesla’s driving technology is no longer cutting edge compared with local rivals, he added.

“我认为特斯拉在中国的竞争力最多只能持续两三年，”拥有一辆比亚迪的陈家明说。他还说，与本土竞争对手相比，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术已不再领先。

2023年，中国苏州的比亚迪展厅。该公司是特斯拉最大的竞争对手。

After years of lobbying the government, Tesla was finally allowed to offer a version of its Autopilot technology to Chinese drivers last month. The feature is a step below the full self-driving feature that Tesla drivers in the United States can use. Drivers who want access to the necessary software update in China have to pay an additional $8,800.

经过多年游说，特斯拉终于在上月被允许向中国司机提供其自动驾驶技术的一个版本。该功能比美国的特斯拉司机可以使用的全自动驾驶功能低一个级别。在中国，想获得必要软件升级的司机必须额外支付6.4万元。

Younger buyers prefer Chinese brands, said Xia Lifang, an employee working at the nearby dealership for Arcfox, a Chinese electric carmaker. Tesla and BYD remain the most trusted brands in China, she said, but people born in the 1990s and 2000s are more open to trying new brands.

在附近的中国电动汽车制造商极狐汽车经销店工作的夏丽芳（音）表示，年轻的买家更喜欢中国品牌。她说，特斯拉和比亚迪仍然是中国最受信任的品牌，但90后和00后更愿意尝试新品牌。

“Our car looks better than Tesla,” Ms. Xia said with a smile.

“我们的车比特斯拉好看，”夏丽芳笑着说。

She added: “You could buy two of our cars for the price of one Tesla.”

她还说：“买一辆特斯拉的钱可以买两辆我们的车。”

For nearly a month, Australian forces were on alert as a flotilla of Chinese navy ships made an unannounced voyage around the continent. The ships sailed in and out of Australia’s exclusive economic zone. They fired live shots near commercial airspace, forcing dozens of civilian flights to reroute. They sailed past Perth in Western Australia, days after a visiting U.S. nuclear submarine docked at a nearby naval base.

在将近一个月的时间里，澳大利亚军队一直处于戒备状态，因为一支中国海军舰队未事先通报的情况下环绕该大陆航行。舰队的船只进出澳大利亚的专属经济区，在商业飞行空域附近发射实弹，迫使数十架民航班机在飞行途中改变航线。舰队还驶过了西澳大利亚的珀斯，一艘来访的美国核潜艇前几天曾停靠在附近的海军基地。

Finally, last weekend, the Chinese ships headed north toward Indonesia.

中国军舰终于在上周末向北驶向印度尼西亚方向。

Australian officials repeatedly assured the public that the Chinese ships’ presence and actions were perfectly legitimate under international law. But the voyage was the farthest south the Chinese military had ever come, and was deeply uncomfortable for Australia.

虽然澳大利亚官员多次向公众保证，中国舰艇的出现和行为完全符合国际法，但这次航行是中国海军有史以来到达的最南端，并让澳大利亚深感不安。

It has forced the nation to take a hard look at its own aging fleet, its heavy military dependence on a faraway ally, the United States, and the increasing muscularity of its biggest trading partner, China.

这迫使澳大利亚不得不认真地审视本国日益老化的舰队，在军事上对遥远盟友美国的依赖，以及最大的贸易伙伴中国日益强大的军事实力等问题。

There was nothing about the deployment of the three Chinese vessels — a cruiser, a frigate and a replenishment tanker — that was technically impressive or strategically significant. China’s formidable navy has long demonstrated the vast distances it can cover and the capabilities of its premier ships.

中国派出的三艘舰艇（一艘巡洋舰、一艘护卫舰、一艘补给油料舰）在技术上和战略上都没有什么突出之处。中国强大的海军早已展示了覆盖广阔水域的能力，及其超级舰艇的实力。

Instead, it ended up highlighting Australia’s inadequacies: its own navy is the oldest and smallest it has been since World War II, analysts and former navy officials say. It has two tankers, which are crucial for navigating long distances, as the Chinese did, but both have been out of commission for months. The two Chinese warships had a combined 144 vertical launch missile cells, while the Royal Australian Navy’s 10 warships, altogether, have 200.

事实上，这次航行最终突出的是澳大利亚自身的不足：分析人士和前海军官员称，澳大利亚海军是该国自第二次世界大战以来舰艇最陈旧、规模最小的海军。澳大利亚海军有两艘对远程航行至关重要的油料舰（中国海军的这次航行就使用了这种舰船），但那两艘油料舰都已暂时停用几个月了。中国这次派遣的两艘军舰上共有144个舰载导弹垂直发射系统，而澳大利亚皇家海军的10艘军舰加起来总共只有200个这种系统。

“The Chinese are showing us up in our own backyard,” said Marcus Hellyer, an expert on military spending and capability who previously worked for Australia’s defense department.

“中国人正在我们自己的后院里让我们难堪，”研究军事支出和能力的专家马库斯·赫勒说，他曾在澳大利亚国防部工作。

“We can’t even sail around our own country. They are really rubbing it in,” he said. Australian forces, could of course, rely on friendly countries like New Zealand, which refueled an Australian ship in the Tasman Sea as the two countries jointly surveilled the Chinese ships.

“我们甚至没有环绕自己国家航行的能力。他们真的触及了我们的痛处，”他说。当然，澳大利亚军队能依赖新西兰等友好国家，在这两个国家对中国舰队进行联合监视期间，新西兰为一艘在塔斯曼海航行的澳大利亚舰艇加了油。

The firestorm the flotilla ignited in Australia is an indication of how China could take advantage of a moment when the staunchest of American allies are being forced to revisit longstanding assumptions about ties to Washington. The United States has not officially commented on the Chinese ships, even though they coincided with the visit of a top U.S. commander and a U.S. submarine to Australia.

中国舰队在澳大利亚引发的轩然大波表明，在美国最坚定的盟友们正在被迫重新审视与华盛顿关系的长期假定之际，中国有可能利用这一机会。美国尚未对中国舰艇的出现发表官方评论，尽管中国的行动恰逢一名美国高级指挥官和一艘美国潜艇访问澳大利亚。

上个月，一艘美国潜艇曾在西澳大利亚州的罗金厄姆停靠。澳大利亚已大力加强了与美国的军事同盟关系。

Chinese officials have said they were carrying out training in international waters as all navies do, and had nothing to explain or apologize for.

中国官员已表示，中国海军正在国际水域进行训练，这与所有国家海军的做法一样，没有什么可解释或道歉的。

That hasn’t stopped the speculation in Australia about the timing and the message it was designed to send. The ships encircled Australia as the Trump administration has been upending expectations about continued U.S. support for allies like Europe and Ukraine. Australia is about to hold a federal election, in which the ships all but guaranteed that defense will be a major talking point.

但这并没有阻止澳大利亚对中国这次行动的时间选择和试图传递的信息进行猜测。就在特朗普政府颠覆人们对美国继续支持欧洲和乌克兰等盟友的预期之际，中国海军舰队进行了环澳洲航行。澳大利亚即将举行联邦选举，中国军舰的出现差不多确保了国防将成为选举的主要议题。

“China’s navy is illustrating Australia’s vulnerability at the exact moment that the U.S. is demonstrating American unreliability,” Peter Hartcher, the political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, wrote last month. Between the “buccaneering” in Washington and China’s military drumbeat, he wrote: “We’re so exposed that we face the next decade near-naked.”

“就在美国展示其不可靠性的时候，中国海军凸显了澳大利亚的脆弱性，”《悉尼先驱晨报》政治和国际部编辑彼得·哈彻尔上个月写道。他写道，在华盛顿的“恣意行事”和中国军队动作频频之间，“我们如此脆弱，以至于未来十年我们将几乎毫无防御之力。”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government has spent the past few years working hard to stabilize relations with China, which had hit a low point under the previous government, with China imposing crippling trade restrictions.

在过去几年里，澳大利亚的安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯政府一直在努力稳定澳中关系，在上届政府执政期间，两国关系跌至低谷，中国实施了给澳大利亚带来严重损害的贸易限制措施。

At the same time, Australia has doubled down on its military alliance with the United States. In February, it paid half a billion dollars to Washington as a down payment to bolster the U.S. submarine industry, to eventually receive used U.S. nuclear submarines as part of a security pact with America and Britain known as AUKUS.

与此同时，澳大利亚已大力加强了与美国的军事联盟。今年2月，澳大利亚向华盛顿支付了五亿美元，以加强美国的潜艇工业，这笔钱也是最终购买美国二手核动力潜艇的首付款，购买这种潜艇是澳大利亚与美国和英国达成名为AUKUS的安全协议的一部分。

Last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told his Australian counterpart, Richard Marles, that President Trump was “very aware, supportive” of the three-way agreement. But a few weeks later, when a reporter asked Mr. Trump whether he would discuss AUKUS with Britain’s prime minister, Mr. Trump asked: “What does that mean?”

上个月，美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯曾对他的澳大利亚同行理查德·马尔斯表示，特朗普总统对澳英美三方协议“非常了解，非常支持”。但几周后，当记者问特朗普是否会与英国首相讨论AUKUS时，特朗普问道：“那是什么意思？”

民众在海军周期间参观悉尼的一个基地，摄于上周六。

Australia first detected the Chinese ships in early February, one to the north and the other two to the northeast. It tracked them as they traveled south along its eastern coast, entering Australia’s exclusive economic zone near Sydney.

澳大利亚在今年2月初首次发现了中国军舰，一艘军舰出现在澳洲北部，另外两艘出现在东北部。澳大利亚对这些军舰进行了跟踪，它们在澳洲东海岸以外的公海向南行驶，曾在悉尼附近进入澳大利亚的专属经济区。

The unease over the ships became full blown alarm on Feb. 21, when a commercial pilot flying over the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand heard radio broadcasts from the Chinese vessels warning of live fire drills. The pilot informed Australia’s civil aviation service, which scrambled to divert flights in the area. Nearly 50 planes would end up changing course.

澳大利亚民众对中国海军舰队的不安今年2月21日彻底演变为恐慌。那天，一名正在澳大利亚与新西兰之间的塔斯曼海上空飞行的民航飞行员收到中国军舰发出的无线电警告，称中国军舰将在该水域进行实弹演习。该飞行员通知了澳大利亚民航服务部门，后者紧急调整了飞越该水域的航班，最终有近50个民航班机改线。

The drills came as a surprise to both Australia and New Zealand but both acknowledged they were legal. One ship had the potential to carry land-attack missiles or anti-ship ballistic missiles.

虽然中国海军的演习让澳大利亚和新西兰感到惊讶，但两国都承认舰队的航行合法。其中一艘舰艇有可能携带对地攻击导弹或反舰弹道导弹。

China’s response was, in essence: Get used to it.

中国对澳洲反应的回应基本上就是：习惯就好了。

“As a major power in this region, as a country that has so many things to look after, it is normal for China to send their vessels to different parts of the region to conduct various kinds of activities,” Xiao Qian, China’s ambassador to Australia, told Australia’s national broadcaster.

“作为该区域的一个大国，作为一个需要关注许多事务的国家，中国向区域的不同地方派遣舰艇进行各种活动是正常的，”中国驻澳大利亚大使肖千接受澳大利亚国家广播公司采访时说。

悉尼的HMAS Kuttabul海军基地，摄于上周六。澳大利亚政府计划对海军舰队进行升级，但一些专家对澳大利亚的工业能否完成这个任务表示怀疑。

China’s navy, already the world’s largest and rapidly expanding, has also been more aggressive in making its presence felt elsewhere in Asia. Japan’s defense minister said last month that Chinese navy ships had passed through the waters around the Ryukyu Islands — a chain that stretches between Kyushu and Taiwan — a total of 68 times last year, a dramatic increase from 21 times in 2021.

中国的海军已经是世界上规模最大的海军，而且还在迅速扩大，同时在亚洲其他地区积极展示自己的存在。日本防卫大臣上个月表示，中国海军舰艇去年在琉球群岛周边海域航行事例共68起（琉球群岛位于九州和台湾之间），与2021年的21起相比大幅增加。

“They are gradually but very steadily spreading their wings, showing the world they’re able to be anywhere they want to be, whenever they choose,” said Rowan Moffitt, a former deputy chief of the Australian navy. “We see no reason to suggest intent to use their capability against us today. Should the intent change, they could.”

“他们正在逐渐但非常稳定地扩大影响力，向世界展示他们有能力在自己选择的任何时间去他们想去的任何地方，”澳大利亚海军前副司令罗文·莫菲特说。“我们看不出有任何理由认为他们今天会有意将其能力用于对付我们。但如果意图发生了改变，他们是有能力那样做。”

But for some, the Chinese flotilla was a reminder of the possibility of hostile powers reaching Australian shores.

但对一些人来说，中国舰队的出现提醒了人们敌对国家到达澳大利亚海岸的可能性。

“We’ve thought of conflict as something we choose to get involved in on the other side of the world,” said Jennifer Parker, a naval expert and two-decade veteran of the navy.

“我们一直认为，冲突是我们可以选择参与与否、发生在世界另一端的事情，”曾在海军服役20年的海军专家詹妮弗·帕克说。

Last year, Mr. Albanese’s government announced ambitious goals to expand and update Australia’s naval fleet, but the results aren’t expected to be seen until the 2030s, and some experts are skeptical that the local industry can deliver.

阿尔巴尼斯政府去年宣布了扩大和升级澳大利亚海军舰队的雄伟目标，但预计要到2030年代才能看到结果，一些专家对澳大利亚的工业能否完成这一任务持怀疑态度。

Australian warships have sailed near China, through the Taiwan Strait, and participated in joint exercises in the South China Sea. (And a Chinese defense ministry spokesman asked if Australia would notify Beijing of its own exercises near China.) But those are heavily trafficked corridors where multiple countries’ interests intersect, whereas the only reason to be south of Australia or in the Tasman Sea would be to send a message, said Ray Powell, the director of the maritime transparency project SeaLight, who previously served as a U.S. defense attaché in Canberra.

澳大利亚军舰曾在中国附近航行，穿越过台湾海峡，也参加过在南中国海举行的联合演习。（中国国防部发言人曾问澳大利亚是否会事先通知中国政府将在中国附近举行演习。）但中国附近的这些水域是繁忙的海上通道，多个国家在那里有利益交织，而派军舰前往澳大利亚以南的海域或塔斯曼海的唯一原因是传递信息，海事透明度计划SeaLight的负责人雷·鲍威尔说道，他曾担任美国驻堪培拉的国防武官。

“That particular message is, we are able to hold you at risk,” he said.

“那个信息就是，我们能够让你处于危险之中，”他说。

President Trump made a lot of promises on the campaign trail last year. Investors and business leaders enthusiastically cheered some, like lower taxes and relaxed regulation, and expressed wariness about others, like tariffs and reduced immigration.

特朗普总统在去年的竞选活动中做出了很多承诺。投资者和商界领袖对减税和放松监管等措施表示热烈欢迎，同时对关税和减少移民等其他措施表示谨慎。

But when Mr. Trump won the election, there was little sign of that ambivalence: Stock prices soared, as did measures of business optimism.

但当特朗普赢得大选时，几乎看不到这种矛盾的迹象：股价飙升，衡量商业乐观程度的指标也在飙升。

Investors at the time offered a simple explanation: They believed Mr. Trump, backed by a Republican-controlled Congress, would follow through on the parts of his agenda that they liked and scale back the more disruptive policies like tariffs if financial markets started to get spooked.

当时的投资者给出了一个简单的解释：他们相信，在共和党控制的国会的支持下，特朗普会落实其议程中他们喜欢的部分，如果金融市场开始受到惊吓，它就会缩减关税等更具破坏性的政策。

It is increasingly clear they were wrong.

越来越明显的是，他们错了。

In his first weeks in office, Mr. Trump has made tariffs the central focus of his economic policy, promising, and at times imposing, steep penalties on allies as well as adversaries. He has threatened to curb subsidies that businesses had come to rely on. And he has empowered Elon Musk’s efforts to slash the federal bureaucracy, potentially putting tens of thousands of federal workers out of jobs and cutting off billions of dollars in government grants and contracts.

在上任前几周，特朗普将关税作为其经济政策的中心焦点，承诺对盟友和对手实施严厉的惩罚，有时还会实施。他威胁要限制企业已经开始依赖的补贴。他还授权埃隆·马斯克削减联邦官僚机构，这可能会导致数万名联邦工作人员失业，并削减数十亿美元的政府拨款和合同。

Most surprising, at least to the optimists on Wall Street: Mr. Trump has so far been undeterred by signs of cracks in the economy or by plunging stock prices.

最令人惊讶的是——至少对华尔街的乐观主义者来说是这样：迄今为止，特朗普没有被经济出现裂缝的迹象或股价暴跌吓倒。

“The idea that the administration is going to be held back by a self-imposed market constraint should be discounted,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM.

会计师事务所RSM的首席经济学家乔·布鲁塞拉斯表示：“对于政府会被自我施加的市场约束所限制的想法，不可尽信。”

Sure enough, on Tuesday, as financial markets seemed to be settling down after days of steep losses, Mr. Trump hit them with another shock, escalating his trade war with Canada. Major stock indexes immediately fell sharply on the news, with the S&P 500 ending the day down almost 1 percent. Mr. Trump ultimately reversed his decision after Canada said it would remove an electricity surcharge that had prompted the president’s threats.

果然，周二，在金融市场在经历了几天的大幅下跌后似乎正在企稳之际，特朗普又给了他们一个冲击，他升级了与加拿大的贸易战。消息传出后，主要股指立即大幅下跌，标准普尔500指数收盘下跌近1%。在加拿大表示将取消引发总统威胁的电费附加费后，特朗普最终改变了决定。

Far from being deterred by warnings that his policies are creating economic damage, Mr. Trump in recent days has embraced it, telling a Fox News interviewer on Sunday that the economic turmoil reflected a necessary “period of transition” and refusing to rule out a recession.

特朗普非但没有被有关他的政策正在造成经济损害的警告吓住，近几天还显得引以为荣。他在周日接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，经济动荡反映了一个必要的“过渡期”，他还拒绝排除经济衰退的可能性。

Asked about whipsawing financial markets on Tuesday, Mr. Trump told reporters: “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down but, you know what, we have to rebuild our country.”

周二，当被问及起伏不定的金融市场时，特朗普告诉记者：“市场有涨有跌，但是，你知道吗，我们必须重建我们的国家。”

Other members of his administration have echoed that message, describing tariff-induced price increases and cuts in government spending as a harsh but necessary medicine to restore the economy to health.

特朗普政府的其他成员也赞同这一观点，称关税引发的价格上涨和政府支出削减是恢复经济健康的一剂凶猛但必要的药。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, told CNBC last week that the economy needed a “detox period” after becoming “addicted to this government spending.”

财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周告诉CNBC，在“对政府支出上瘾”之后，美国经济需要一个“戒瘾期”。

Most economists, however, dismiss the idea that the economy was in need of such shock therapy, or that Mr. Trump’s policies would be helpful if it did.

然而，大多数经济学家不认为美国经济需要这种休克疗法，也不认为就算需要这种疗法，特朗普的政策会有所帮助。

“It’s an effort to give the pain and the uncertainty that we’re going through at the moment some broader meaning and encourage us that we’re going to get to a better place,” said Nathan Sheets, a former Treasury official who is now global chief economist at Citigroup, of the administration’s new message. “But the bigger question is, are we really going to get to a better place?”

“这是在试图赋予我们目前正在经历的痛苦和不确定性更广泛的含义，并鼓励我们相信我们将走向一个更好的地方，”前财政部官员、现花旗集团全球首席经济学家内森·希茨在谈到政府的新信息时说。“但更大的问题是，我们真的会有一个更好的处境吗？”

The answer, according to Mr. Sheets and others, is “no.” Tariffs are likely to drive up prices and slow down growth. Tighter immigration policy could do the same. Government layoffs could drive up unemployment, while cuts to federal investments in research and development could leave the U.S. economy less productive in the long term.

在谢茨和其他人看来，答案是“不会”。关税可能会推高价格，减缓增长。收紧移民政策也能起到同样的作用。政府裁员可能会推高失业率，而削减联邦研发投资可能会导致美国经济长期生产力下降。

“It seems we are going to create pain, see what doesn’t heal, and then treat the injury,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University.

乔治·华盛顿大学经济学家塔拉·辛克莱说：“看来，我们是要制造痛苦，看看有什么是不能愈合的，然后再治疗伤口。”

A ‘shock factor’ for businesses

对企业的“冲击因素”

Economists disagree about how much damage the new administration’s policies have done. The economy entered the year with significant momentum, and most forecasters believe there is enough of a cushion to avoid a recession, if Mr. Trump doesn’t further escalate his trade wars.

经济学家对新政府的政策造成了多大的破坏意见不一。今年经济增长势头强劲，大多数预测者认为，如果特朗普不进一步升级贸易战，就有足够的缓冲来避免经济衰退。

But the uncertainty of the past six weeks has been enough to cloud what had until recently looked like a sunny economic outlook. In surveys, consumers say they have become less optimistic about their finances and more worried about higher prices. Businesses, too, have become less confident and are delaying investment decisions.

但是，过去六周的不确定性已经足以给直到最近看起来还很光明的经济前景蒙上阴影。在调查中，消费者表示，他们对自己的财务状况不那么乐观，更担心物价上涨。企业也失去了信心，推迟了投资决定。

“There is a shock factor in the business community that we are seeing right now,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at the investment banking firm Jefferies. Businesses are slowing hiring and putting off buying products and equipment, Mr. Simons said. “It certainly seems like right now, you’d want to take a breath and let some of the dust settle before you make that decision.”

“我们现在看到的是，企业界需要考虑一个冲击因素，”投资银行杰富瑞的首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯说。西蒙斯说，企业正在放慢招聘速度，推迟购买产品和设备。“现在看来，你肯定想先喘口气，等尘埃落定后再做决定。”

Cautioning short-term pain

关于短痛的警告

The idea that Americans must endure short-term pain for long-term gain is not entirely new for Mr. Trump. In his first term, he praised farmers who were the collateral damage in his trade war with China, describing them as “patriots” making a sacrifice for the greater good.

美国人必须忍受短痛才能获得长期利益，这种想法对特朗普来说并不新鲜。在第一个任期内，他赞扬了在与中国的贸易战中受到附带损害的农民，称他们是为更大利益做出牺牲的“爱国者”。

But Mr. Trump, in his first term, also tried to offset that damage with billions of dollars in aid for farmers.

但特朗普在第一个任期内也试图通过向农民提供数十亿美元的援助来抵消这种损失。

如果消费者开始预期通胀加快，美联储的决策者就很难通过降低利率来应对经济放缓。

This time, the costs associated with Mr. Trump’s policies are potentially much broader, and they are coming in a much different economic context, when Americans have been scarred by years of high prices and elevated borrowing costs.

这一次，与特朗普的政策相关的成本可能要大得多，而且是在一个非常不同的经济背景下出现的，美国人多年来一直受到高物价和借贷成本上升的伤害。

Consumer surveys show that Americans have begun to anticipate higher prices as a result of tariffs. That could pose a political problem for Mr. Trump, and also an economic one: If consumers come to expect faster inflation, it could make it more difficult for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to counteract a slowdown in the economy through lower interest rates.

消费者调查显示，美国人已经开始预期关税会导致物价上涨。这可能会给特朗普带来一个政治问题，同时也是一个经济问题：如果消费者预期通胀会加快，美联储的政策制定者可能更难通过降低利率来抵消经济放缓的影响。

Some Fed officials are expressing concern that the combination of slowing growth and stubborn price pressures could put the central bank in a bind.

一些美联储官员担心，经济增长放缓和顽固的价格压力可能会让美联储陷入困境。

“That’s a stagflationary impulse,” Austan D. Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in an interview last week. “There isn’t a generic answer to what you’re supposed to do.”

“这是一种滞胀冲动，”芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比上周在接受采访时说。“至于对此应该做什么，没有一个一般性的答案。”

Mr. Bessent and other members of the Trump administration have argued that the economy they inherited was not as strong as it appeared. In a speech in Washington last month, he argued that growth was being effectively propped up by government spending, and that the economy needed to be weaned off that support.

贝森特和特朗普政府的其他成员认为，他们接手的经济并不像看上去那么强劲。上个月在华盛顿的一次演讲中，他认为增长实际上是由政府支出支撑的，经济需要摆脱这种支持。

“The previous administration’s overreliance on excessive government spending and overbearing regulation left us with an economy that may have exhibited some reasonable metrics but ultimately was brittle underneath, and heading for an unstable equilibrium” he said, according to Reuters.

据路透社报道，他表示：“上届政府过度依赖政府支出和专横的监管，给我们留下的经济可能表现出一些合理的指标，但归根结底是脆弱的，正在走向不稳定的平衡。”

But Jared Bernstein, who served as chairman of former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Council of Economic Advisers, said Mr. Bessent and other members of the Trump administration were simply looking for someone to blame now that economic data has begun to worsen.

但曾担任前总统拜登经济顾问委员会主席的贾里德·伯恩斯坦说，贝森特和特朗普政府的其他成员只是因为现在经济数据开始恶化了，要找替罪羊。

“They inherited an economy that was and remains the strongest among all the advanced economies, and they squandered their inheritance in a mere six weeks with policy chaos that’s tanking business and consumer confidence along with markets,” Mr. Bernstein said.

“他们继承了一个过去是、现在仍然是所有发达经济体中最强大的经济体，但他们在短短六周内就把继承的遗产挥霍一空，政策混乱导致企业、消费者信心和市场都受到重创，”伯恩斯坦说。

Government statistics support the notion that the economy was solid when Mr. Trump took office, even excluding the role of government. Government spending played a key role in propping up the economy during the Covid pandemic, both at the end of Mr. Trump’s first term and early in the Biden administration. But it fell later in Mr. Biden’s term, while private-sector hiring, investment and spending remained healthy.

政府统计数据支持特朗普上任时经济稳健的观点，即使不考虑政府的作用也是如此。在新冠疫情期间，政府支出在支撑经济方面发挥了关键作用，无论是在特朗普第一任期结束时还是在拜登政府初期。但在拜登任期后期，政府支出有所下降，而私营部门的招聘、投资和支出仍保持健康。

In a span of only 50 days, President Trump has done more than any of his modern predecessors to hollow out the foundations of an international system that the United States painstakingly erected in the 80 years since it emerged victorious from World War II.

在短短50天的时间里，一个美国自“二战”胜利以来80年间精心构建的国际体系被特朗普严重动摇了根基，他在这方面的作为超过了他之前的任何一位现代美国总统。

Without formally declaring a reversal of course or offering a strategic rationale, he has pushed the United States to switch sides in the Ukraine war, abandoning all talk about helping a nascent, flawed democracy defend its borders against a larger invader. He did not hesitate when he ordered the United States to vote with Russia and North Korea — and against virtually all of America’s traditional allies — to defeat a U.N. resolution that identified Moscow as the aggressor. His threats to take control of the Panama Canal, Greenland, Gaza and, most incredibly, Canada, sound predatory, including his claim Tuesday that the border with America’s northern ally is an “artificial line of separation.”

他没有正式宣布改变路线，也没有解释战略上的考量，却推动美国在乌克兰战争中改变了立场，放弃了所有关于帮助一个新生的、有缺陷的民主国家保卫边界、抵御大国入侵的言论。他毫不犹豫地命令美国投出与俄罗斯和朝鲜一致的票，反对美国几乎所有的传统盟友，挫败一项将莫斯科认定为侵略者的联合国决议。他威胁要控制巴拿马运河、格陵兰岛、加沙，最令人难以置信的是，还要控制加拿大，显得予取予求，包括他周二声称与美国北方盟友的边界是一条“凭空捏造的分隔线”。

He cut Ukraine off from arms and even American commercial satellite imagery, partly out of pique over his blowup in the Oval Office with President Volodymyr Zelensky, but largely because the Ukrainian president insists on a guarantee that the West would come to his country’s aid if Russia rebuilds and reinvades.

他切断了对乌克兰的武器供应，甚至切断了美国的商业卫星图像，部分原因是乌克兰总统泽连斯基与他在椭圆形办公室发生的争执让他愤怒，但主要是因为泽连斯基坚持要求西方保证，如果俄罗斯重整旗鼓再次入侵，他们将向乌克兰提供援助。

Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs on his allies after describing them as leeches on the American economy. And he has so damaged trust among the NATO allies that France is discussing extending its country’s small nuclear umbrella over Europe, and Poland is thinking of building its own atomic weapon. Both fear the United States can no longer be counted on to act as the alliance’s ultimate defender, a core role it created for itself when the NATO treaty was written.

特朗普说盟友是美国经济的水蛭，并对他们征收关税。他严重破坏了北约盟国之间的信任，以至于法国正在讨论将其小型核保护伞扩大到欧洲，波兰正在考虑建造自己的核武器。双方都担心，再也不能指望美国充当北约的终极捍卫者，而这是北约条约起草时美国为自己创造的核心角色。

No one knows how successful Mr. Trump will be in ripping asunder what every American president since Harry Truman has built — an era of institution-building that Mr. Truman’s secretary of state memorialized in a book entitled “Present At the Creation.” To live in Washington these days is to feel as if one is present at the destruction.

没有人知道特朗普会在多大程度上成功地瓦解自杜鲁门以来的每一位美国总统所建立的制度——杜鲁门的国务卿在一本名为《参与创始》(Present At the Creation)的书中回忆了一个体制建设的时代。如今生活在华盛顿，感觉就像身处毁灭的现场。

上个月在圣地亚哥边境口岸附近等待进入墨西哥的货运卡车。特朗普将盟友称为美国经济的水蛭，并对其征收关税。

It could be four years or more before we know whether these changes are permanent or whether the guardians of the old system will hunker down, like soldiers seeking to survive in the trenches of Donbas. By then, the Western allies may have moved on from an America-centric system.

可能需要四年或更长时间，我们才能知道，这些变化是不是永久性的，抑或旧制度的捍卫者会像在顿巴斯战壕中求生的士兵一样躲藏起来。然而到那个时候，西方盟国可能已经脱离了以美国为中心的体系。

Or, as Joseph S. Nye Jr., the political scientist known for his work on the nature of soft power, said of Mr. Trump recently, “He is so obsessed with the problem of free riders that he forgets that it has been in America’s interest to drive the bus.”

或者，正如以研究软实力本质而闻名的政治学家小约瑟夫·奈最近在谈到特朗普时说的那样，“他太沉迷于被别人蹭车的问题，以至于忘记了驾驶这辆大巴从来都是符合美国的利益的。”

But perhaps the more remarkable thing is that Mr. Trump is eroding the old order without ever describing the system he envisions replacing it with. His actions suggest he is most comfortable in the 19th-century world of great-power politics, where he, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China, negotiate among themselves, and let lesser powers fall in line.

但或许更值得注意的是，特朗普正在侵蚀旧秩序，却从未描述过他设想用什么制度来取代这个秩序。他的行动表明，他最喜欢的是19世纪的大国政治，在这样的体系之下，他与俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平彼此谈判，让较小的国家服从。

Mr. Trump is already claiming successes. To his advocates, Ukraine’s agreement on Tuesday to a proposal for a temporary cease-fire, one Russia has yet to accept, appears to demonstrate that Mr. Trump’s use of his leverage over Mr. Zelensky was worth the uproar. But historians may determine these 50 days were critical for reasons that had little to do with Ukraine.

特朗普已经宣称自己取得了成功。在他的支持者看来，乌克兰周二同意临时停火的提议（俄罗斯尚未接受该提议）似乎表明，特朗普对泽连斯基施加影响所激起的轩然大波是值得的。但历史学家可能会认为，这50天之所以至关重要，与乌克兰关系不大。

“The big debate now is whether this is a tactical move to reshape our foreign policy or a revolution?” said R. Nicholas Burns, the American ambassador to China under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and to NATO under President George W. Bush.

“现在，最大的争论是，这是重塑我们外交政策的战术性举措，还是一场革命？”拜登总统任内的美国驻华大使、乔治·W·布什总统任内的美国驻北约大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯说。

“I’ve come to think it’s a revolution,” he said. “When you are voting with North Korea and Iran against NATO allies, when you are failing to stand up to Russian aggression, when you are threatening to take the territory of your allies, something has fundamentally changed. There is a breaking of the trust with allies we may never be able to repair.”

“我开始认为这是一场革命，”他说。“当你与朝鲜和伊朗一起投票反对北约盟国时，当你未能站出来反对俄罗斯的侵略时，当你威胁要夺取盟友的领土时，有些事情已经发生了根本性的变化。我们与盟友之间的信任被打破了，我们可能永远无法修补。”

‘Nothing will stand in our way’

“谁也别想拦着我们”

In retrospect, the first sign that Mr. Trump’s approach to the world would be dramatically different from the one he pursued in the first term came on a chilly morning early in January at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.

如今看来，特朗普对世界的态度将与他在第一任期中的追求大相径庭，这样的迹象首次出现在1月初一个寒冷的早晨，地点是他位于佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌俱乐部。

For weeks he had sounded increasingly martial about the need for the United States to control Greenland, because of its mineral wealth and its strategic location near Arctic waters used by Russia and China. He accelerated his demands for access to the Panama Canal and kept repeating the need for Canada to become a 51st state, until it became clear that he was not joking.

那个时候，他接连几周使用越来越强硬的语气，强调美国控制格陵兰岛的必要性，因为那里拥有丰富的矿产资源，而且临近俄罗斯和中国使用的北极水域，具有战略价值。他在获取巴拿马运河控制权方面的言论越来越紧迫，并且不断重申加拿大应该成为美国的第51个州，直到人们发现他不是在开玩笑。

At a news conference on Jan. 7, two weeks before his inauguration, he was asked whether he would rule out using military or economic coercion to achieve his goals in Greenland or Canada. “I’m not going to commit to that,” he said. “You might have to do something.”

在1月7日的新闻发布会上，也就是他就职前两周，有人问他是否排除使用军事或经济胁迫手段来实现他在格陵兰岛或加拿大的目标。“我不会为此做出承诺，”他说。“你可能必须做点什么。”

格陵兰伊卢利萨特的渔民。特朗普越来越多地表达了他希望美国控制格陵兰岛的愿望。

It was a stunning threat. An incoming president had threatened to use the world’s largest military against a NATO ally. Some brushed it off as Trump bravado. But in his inauguration, he doubled down. He said the world would no longer exploit America’s generosity and the security it offered to allies. He spoke of an America that would “pursue our manifest destiny,” a rallying call from the 1890s, and praised William McKinley, the tariff-loving president who took the Philippines in the Spanish-American War. And he spoke of creating an “External Revenue Service” to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.”

这是一个令人震惊的威胁。即将上任的总统威胁要动用世界上最强大的军队来对付北约盟友。一些人认为这是特朗普的虚张声势。但在就职典礼上，他变本加厉，声称世界不能再利用美国的慷慨，以及它为盟国提供的安全。他谈到了一个将会“追求我们的天定命运”的美国，这是19世纪90年代的口号，他赞扬崇尚关税、在美西战争中占领菲律宾的总统威廉·麦金莱。他还谈到要建立一个“对外收税署”，“向外国征收关税和税收，让我们的公民富起来”。

“Nothing will stand in our way,” he declared. And nothing has.

“谁也别想拦着我们，”他宣布。他确实没有受到阻挡。

The effort to rip apart the U.S. Agency for International Development, created by President John F. Kennedy as part of the vanguard of American soft power, took just a few weeks; the primary argument playing out in the courts is whether the government has to pay contractors $2 billion for work already completed. Mr. Trump and Elon Musk, who is leading the charge in remaking the government, recognized that foreign aid is so derided by the MAGA movement as a hotbed of liberal values and corruption that the agency was an easy first mark.

美国国际开发署是约翰·肯尼迪总统创建的，是美国软实力先头部队的一部分，瓦解它只用了几个星期；在法庭上的主要争论点是，政府是否必须为已经完成的工作向承包商支付20亿美元。特朗普和负责重塑政府的埃隆·马斯克认识到，对外援助被“让美国恢复伟大荣光”运动嘲笑为自由主义价值观和腐败的温床，因此该机构很容易成为第一个目标。

Dismantling it, they knew, would also strike fear into the hearts of government employees who realized they could be next. Groups that do similar work and were once lauded by Republicans — like the United States Institute for Peace and the National Endowment for Democracy — are on life support.

他们知道，拆除它也会让政府雇员感到恐惧，因为他们意识到自己可能是下一个。美国和平研究所和国家民主基金会等从事类似工作并曾受到共和党人称赞的组织已经岌岌可危。

Ukraine: the first test

乌克兰：第一个考验

The biggest shift was still to come: Ukraine.

最大的转变还在后头：乌克兰。

For three years, Democrats and most Republicans had largely viewed the war through the lens of traditional American foreign policy. It was incumbent on the United States to defend a struggling democracy that had been illegally invaded by a larger power seeking its territory.

三年来，民主党人和大多数共和党人基本上是通过传统的美国外交政策来看待这场战争的。美国有责任保护一个正在挣扎的民主国家，因为它遭到了一个窥觎其领土的大国的非法入侵。

But now, as president, Mr. Trump called Mr. Zelensky a “dictator,” while refusing to say the same of Mr. Putin. He justified his refusal to call Russia the aggressor in the war as a necessary measure to act as a neutral mediator. Then, on his first trip to Europe, his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, declared that the United States would never agree to Ukraine’s admission to the NATO alliance, and said it would have to give up the territory it had lost to Russian aggression.

但现在，作为总统的特朗普称泽连斯基是“独裁者”，却拒绝对普京说同样的话。他为自己拒绝称俄罗斯为侵略者辩护，认为这是作为中立调解人的必要措施。然后，他的国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在首次欧洲之行中宣布，美国永远不会同意乌克兰加入北约联盟，并表示乌克兰将不得不放弃因俄罗斯侵略而失去的领土。

库拉霍夫前线的一名乌克兰士兵。三年来，民主党人和大多数共和党人基本上都是从美国传统外交政策的角度来看待这场战争的。

With Mr. Trump’s blessing, they had given Mr. Putin two of his upfront demands, while making it clear that if Ukraine wanted a security guarantee, he should talk to his European neighbors — but the United States would not participate. The other day Mr. Trump said he found dealing with Russia easier than dealing with Ukraine.

在特朗普的支持下，他们答应了普京的两项首要要求，同时明确表示，如果乌克兰想要安全保证，他应该与欧洲邻国谈判——但美国不会参与。前几天，特朗普表示，他发现同俄罗斯打交道比同乌克兰打交道更容易。

“He has turned U.S. policy on the Russo-Ukraine war 180 degrees,” said John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s third, and perhaps most embittered, national security adviser. “Trump now sides with the invader.”

“他让美国对俄乌战争的政策发生了180度大转弯，”特朗普的第三任、或许也是对此最为愤慨的一任国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿说。“特朗普现在站在侵略者一边。”

But Europe has dug in deeper with the Ukrainians, essentially dividing NATO’s largest power from all but a few of its 31 other members. Not since the Suez crisis in 1956 — when France, Britain and Israel invaded Egypt — has the United States found itself on other side of a conflict from its closest allies. But this breach has been deeper, and more fundamental.

但欧洲加强了与乌克兰共命运的立场，这从根本上将美国这个北约最大国与其他31个成员的绝大多数对立起来。自从1956年苏伊士运河危机（当时法国、英国和以色列入侵埃及）以来，美国从未发现自己在冲突中站在最亲密盟友的对面。但这次的裂痕更深、更根本。

Now his aides are scrambling, with little success, to impose a logic to it all.

现在他的助手们正忙着给这一切强加一个逻辑，但收效甚微。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a classic Russia hard-liner before he took his current post, suggested that Mr. Trump was trying to tear Russia away from its growing partnership with China. There is no evidence that this is working.

国务卿鲁比奥在担任现任国务卿之前是典型的对俄强硬派，如今，他表示，特朗普正试图让俄罗斯脱离与中国日益紧密的伙伴关系。没有证据表明这是有效的。

Other members of Mr. Trump’s national security team have talked about a “Monroe Doctrine 2.0.” That suggests a world in which the United States, China, Russia and perhaps Saudi Arabia take responsibility for their distinct spheres of influence. Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, the British spy agency, said in a BBC interview that it reminded him of the Yalta Conference — the meeting of Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin in 1945 — where “the strong countries decided the fate of small countries.”

特朗普国家安全团队的其他成员谈到了“门罗主义2.0”。它的意思是，在这个世界上，美国、中国、俄罗斯（或许还有沙特阿拉伯）将为各自的势力范围负责。英国情报机构军情六处前负责人亚历克斯·杨格在接受BBC采访时表示，这让他想起了1945年罗斯福、丘吉尔和斯大林参加的雅尔塔会议，也就是“强国决定小国命运”的时刻。

“That’s the world we’re going into,” he predicted, adding “I don’t think we’re going back to the one we had before.”

“这就是我们将要进入的世界，”他预言，并表示，“我不认为我们会回到过去的世界。”

Of course, such an arrangement has long been a dream of Mr. Putin’s, because it would elevate the power of his economically declining state. But as Dmitri Medvedev, the former Russian president, said on social media the other day, “If you’d told me just three months ago that these were the words of the US president, I would have laughed out loud.”

当然，这样的安排一直是普京的梦想，因为这将提升他这个经济日渐衰颓的国家的权力。但正如俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫不久前在社交媒体上所说的那样，“如果你三个月前告诉我，这些话出自美国总统之口，我会笑出声来。”

As a presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump promised an economic “boom like no other.”

特朗普还是总统候选人时，曾经承诺让经济出现“非同一般的繁荣”。

But eight weeks into his presidency, Mr. Trump is refusing to rule out a recession — a striking change in tone and message for a man who rode widespread economic dissatisfaction to the White House by promising to “make America affordable again.”

但在就任总统八周后，特朗普正在拒绝排除有经济衰退的可能性。对于一个凭借“让美国再次变得负担得起”的承诺、利用老百姓对经济的普遍不满入主白宫的人来说，这在语气和信息传递上是一个惊人的改变。

His comments come as the stock market is tumbling — the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent Monday after falling 3.1 percent last week — and business leaders are spooked about the uncertainty over his tariffs. Even some Republicans, who fear retribution if they cross Mr. Trump, have started to raise concerns about his levies.

他发表这番言论的同时，股市正在暴跌：标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3.1%后，周一又下跌了2.7%，商界领袖们也被他的关税带来的不确定性吓坏了。就连一些担心如果反对特朗普会遭到报复的共和党人，也开始对他加征关税的做法表示担忧。

The moment captures a fundamental challenge for Mr. Trump, a showman who makes absolute and sweeping promises that inevitably run into the reality of governing.

这个时刻凸显出特朗普面临的一个根本性挑战。他喜欢出风头，爱做笼统、绝对的承诺，这些承诺不可避免地会与执政的现实出现冲突。

The economy Mr. Trump inherited was by many standards in solid shape, with low unemployment, moderate growth and an inflation rate that, while still higher than what the Federal Reserve wants, had declined substantially. But the uncertainty that his policies have injected into the outlook is a jarring contrast with the picture Mr. Trump painted on the campaign trail.

按许多标准来看，特朗普接手的经济状况都不错，失业率低，增长适中，通货膨胀率虽仍高于美联储的预期，但已大幅降低。但特朗普的政策给前景注入的不确定性与他在竞选期间的描绘形成了鲜明的反差。

“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”

“我们将开启收入猛增的新时代，”特朗普在去年10月的一次集会上说。“财富飞涨。成百上千万的新工作岗位，以及一个蓬勃发展的中产阶级。我们将迎来前所未有的繁荣。”

That vow to create an economic boom has come into conflict, at least for now, with the president’s favorite economic tool: tariffs. He promised those too during the campaign and, as economists warned, they are the primary driver of the country’s cloudy economic outlook. Forecasts from both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say a recession over the next year has become more likely because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

创造经济繁荣的誓言已与总统最喜欢的经济工具——关税发生了冲突，至少目前是这样。他在竞选期间也承诺加征关税，正如经济学家们警告的那样，加征关税是美国经济前景不明朗的主要驱动因素。来自摩根大通和高盛的预测都称，由于特朗普的关税，经济在未来一年出现衰退的可能性已增大了。

So far, the president appears to be trying to lower expectations. In an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News, Mr. Trump demurred when asked by Maria Bartiromo if he expected a recession this year.

迄今为止，总统似乎要试图降低人们的预期。在福克斯新闻周日播出的采访中，玛丽亚·巴蒂罗莫问特朗普是否预计经济今年会出现衰退后，特朗普拒绝回答。

“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

“我讨厌预测这种事情，”他说。“会有一个过渡时期，因为我们正在做的事情非常大。我们正在把财富带回美国。那是件大事。而且总是会有这样的过渡时期，那需要一点时间。虽然需要一点时间，但我认为那对我们应该是件好事。”

In his speech last week to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump acknowledged that tariffs would cause “a little disturbance.” But he said: “We are OK with that. It won’t be much.”

特朗普上周在国会联席会议发表讲话时承认，关税会造成“一点干扰”。但他说，“我们能接受。干扰不会太大。”

特朗普上周对来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的产品征收了广泛的关税，但几天后又取消了部分关税。

Even as markets sink, world leaders revolt and business leaders speak out, Mr. Trump has made clear he has no plans to shift his tariff strategy. He imposed broad tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China last week and has vowed to move ahead with more next month. But Mr. Trump, who has a penchant for changing positions on a whim, already reversed course on some of the tariffs and could do so again.

即便股市下跌、世界各国领导人抗议、商界领袖纷纷发声的时候，特朗普仍明确表示，他没有改变关税策略的打算。他上周对来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的商品征收了广泛的关税，并誓言下个月将进一步加征关税。但特朗普喜欢一时兴起就改变立场，他已经在一些关税上改变了行动方向，而且可能会再次这样做。

“Look, our country has been ripped off for many decades, for many, many decades, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” Mr. Trump said on Fox News.

“听我说，我们的国家几十年一直被占便宜，几十年了，我们不会再被占便宜了，”特朗普在福克斯新闻上说。

Mr. Trump, who rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in December, closely monitors the stock market. In his first term, he regularly pointed to a prosperous stock market as evidence of his success. Many business leaders rallied behind Mr. Trump’s campaign because of their belief that he would prioritize their economic interests, but now some chief executives and small-business owners are complaining about the economic pain his tariffs will bring. The president may hear those concerns directly from top chief executives when he meets with members of the Business Roundtable on Tuesday.

去年12月曾在纽约证券交易所敲开市钟的特朗普对股市密切关注。在第一个任期内，他经常把股市的繁荣作为自己成功的证据。许多商界领袖在总统大选中支持特朗普，因为他们认为他会优先考虑商人的经济利益，但现在一些大企业的首席执行官和小企业业主们正在抱怨，特朗普的关税将给他们带来经济痛苦。总统周二与商业圆桌会议的成员见面时，也许会从主要的首席执行官们那里直接听到这些担忧。

On Monday, as the stock market had its worst day since December, White House officials sought to redirect the conversation.

周一，随着股市出现了去年12月以来最糟糕的一天，白宫官员们试图将话题转移到别的事情上去。

“Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in a statement. “President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

“自从特朗普当选总统以来，业界领袖们响应特朗普总统的美国优先经济议程，包括关税、放宽管制、释放美国的活力等，对数万亿美元的投资作出承诺，这将创造成千上万个新就业岗位，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在一份声明中说。“特朗普总统在第一个任期里实现了历史性的就业、工资和投资增长，他将在第二任期里再次实现这些目标。”

In recent days, Mr. Trump’s top advisers have tried to reassure the markets and business leaders. Howard Lutnick, the voluble commerce secretary, said Sunday that there was “no chance” of a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, was not as adamant, saying Friday that there would be a “natural adjustment” as the economy goes through a “detox period” of relying on government spending.

最近几天，特朗普的高级顾问们已试图安抚股市和商界领袖。健谈的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克周日说，“不可能”出现经济衰退。财政部长斯科特·贝森特则不那么坚定，他在上周五表示，随着经济度过一个不再依赖政府支出的“排毒期”，会出现一个“自然的调整”。

“The full-court press by the president and his surrogates this weekend signals they are under a great deal of pressure from people they listen to — the stock market, Republican lawmakers, and business leaders,” said Kate Kalutkiewicz, the senior managing director at McLarty Associates, an advisory firm.

“总统和助手们周末全力公关表明，他们正承受着巨大的压力，这些压力来自他们所重视的人和事，包括股市、共和党议员们，以及商界领袖，”麦克拉蒂咨询公司的高级董事总经理凯特·卡卢特基维茨说。

Ms. Kalutkiewicz, who worked on the National Economic Council in the first Trump term, said the comments by the president and his aides suggest they don’t plan to change course in response to the growing chorus of concern.

卡卢特基维茨曾在特朗普的第一个任期供职于国家经济委员会，她说，总统及其助手们的言论表明，他们不打算对日益增多的担忧声浪做出响应，改变做法。

Stephen Moore, an economist at the Heritage Foundation who is a former economic adviser to Mr. Trump, said the issue for the president is the timing. Mr. Moore said Mr. Trump should have waited until Congress passed tax cuts to institute tariffs.

传统基金会的经济学家、曾在特朗普手下担任经济顾问的斯蒂芬·摩尔说，总统的问题是时间选择。摩尔说，特朗普应该等待国会通过减税法案后再加征关税。

“First, let’s get the economy booming again and then let’s talk about tariffs,” he said. “I think there needs to be a bit of a priority shift.”

“首先，我们要让经济再次繁荣起来，然后再谈关税，”他说。“我认为需要稍微改变一下轻重缓急。”

Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat who is the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, said the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs is “poison” for the U.S. economy.

参议院财政委员会资深委员、俄勒冈州的民主党联邦参议员罗恩·怀登说，特朗普政府加征关税的做法是在给美国的经济“下毒”。

“The chaos they create every single day is basically an anchor tied to the American economy, and it’s going to drag more and more of our workers under water the longer this goes on,” he said in an interview. “We’re trying to stop them.”

“他们天天制造混乱，基本上是在让美国经济抛锚，这种情况持续的时间越长，就会把越来越多的工人拖入困境，”怀登在接受采访时说。“我们正在设法阻止他们。”

The question hanging over Washington is how long Mr. Trump can stomach a declining stock market — and the ensuing negative media coverage that accompanies it.

美国政府面前的问题是，特朗普能忍受股市下跌以及随之而来的负面媒体报道多久时间。

“I don’t know,” Mr. Moore said. “It’s a good question. I’m sure the president is concerned about the losses in the stock market over the last 10 days. We all are.”

“我不知道，”摩尔说。“这是个好问题。我能肯定的是，总统对过去10天的股市下跌感到担忧。我们都在担忧。”

Throughout China’s annual legislative meeting, the national leader Xi Jinping made clear that he wants nothing to hold back his plans for China to march past its rivals by becoming a technological superpower. Not the economic slowdown or heavy local government debt, nor a trade war with the United States.

在中国的年度立法会议上，国家领导人习近平明确表示，他不希望任何事情阻碍他让中国超越对手、成为科技超级大国的计划。经济放缓或沉重的地方政府债务，乃至与美国的贸易战，都无法阻挠。

The meeting in Beijing, called the National People’s Congress, was once a stage for Communist Party leaders to make a show of public consultation. Congress delegates, although handpicked by the party, sometimes chided officials over problems like pollution. There were even rare flashes of discord among senior officials.

在北京召开的全国人民代表大会曾是共产党领导人展示公众意见的舞台。人大代表虽然由共产党精心挑选，但有时也会就污染等问题指责官员。高级官员之间甚至曾经罕见地闪现出不和的迹象。

Mr. Xi, though, has turned the meeting into a meticulously orchestrated, weeklong salute to himself and his vision. This time, he urged China to forge ahead in advanced technologies including artificial intelligence, biotechnology and new weapons.

不过，习近平把这次为期一周的会议变成了一场精心策划的活动，在其中向他自己和他的愿景致敬。这一次，他敦促中国在包括人工智能、生物技术和新武器在内的先进技术领域不断取得进展。

“Xi has seen how decades of investment into science by the U.S. government after World War II was a knockout success for the United States, and wants to replicate that,” said Jimmy Goodrich, who studies China’s science policies as a senior adviser at RAND, an organization that provides analysis to the U.S. government and other clients.

“习近平看到，‘二战’后美国政府对科学的数十年投资给美国带来了巨大的成功，中国希望复制这种成功，”为美国政府和其他客户提供分析的兰德公司高级顾问、研究中国科学政策的吉米·古德里奇说。

“He believes strongly that only by being more self-sufficient and a global leader in science can China achieve success in upgrading its economy, boosting its military capabilities and achieving world-leader status,” Mr. Goodrich said.

“他坚信，只有更加自给自足，成为全球科学的领导者，中国才能成功地升级经济，增强军事能力，取得世界领先地位，”古德里奇说。

Mr. Xi’s implicit message is that other efforts, such as restoring the confidence of China’s private entrepreneurs, must align with that bigger national goal.

习近平的隐含信息是，恢复中国私营企业家的信心等其他努力必须与更大的国家目标保持一致。

The annual congress allows Mr. Xi to give his priorities the gloss of public approval. Dissenting votes from the nearly 3,000 delegates have become exceedingly rare.

一年一度的代表大会让习近平可以给他的工作重点增加一道公众认可的光环。与会的近3000名代表投反对票的情况极为罕见。

习近平与江苏省代表会谈，与会者在认真记笔记。

Mr. Xi’s agenda told the story. On the first day of the congress, Mr. Xi met with delegates from Jiangsu Province — an industrial powerhouse — and told them to “seize on scientific and technological innovation.” The delegates were shown on state television diligently writing down his comments.

习近平的日程安排说明了一切。在大会的第一天，习近平会见了来自工业大省江苏省的代表，告诉他们要“抓科技创新”。国家电视台播放的画面上，代表们认真记下习近平的讲话。

On the second day, Mr. Xi heard reports from scientists and education officials and emphasized the role of education in building China into a “science and technology great power.”

第二天，习近平听取了科学家和教育官员的报告，他强调教育在把中国建设成为“科技强国”中的作用。

On the third day, Mr. Xi put on his green military uniform to meet members of the People’s Liberation Army. He demanded that China’s military become more efficient in implementing modernization plans, rooting out graft, and also more nimble in applying advanced technologies to “accelerate the development of qualitatively new combat capabilities.”

第三天，习近平穿上绿色军装，会见人民解放军代表。他要求中国军队更高效地实施现代化计划，铲除贪腐，更灵活地应用先进技术，以便“加快发展新质战斗力”。

The public summary of his comments gave no details, but China’s military has been working on next-generation jet fighters, unmanned drones, new submarines and other weapons.

他讲话的公开摘要没有提供细节，但中国军方一直在研究下一代喷气式战斗机、无人驾驶飞机、新型潜艇和其他武器。

Mr. Xi’s priorities were also reflected in China’s annual budget, which projects that government spending on science and technology will rise by 8.3 percent this year, on education by 6.1 percent and on the military by 7.2 percent. The government set more modest increases of around 5 percent in spending on health care and social welfare.

习近平的优先事项也反映在中国的年度预算中，预计今年政府在科技方面的支出将增长8.3%，教育支出增长6.1%，军事支出增长7.2%。政府在医疗保健和社会福利方面的支出增幅较小，约为5%。

习近平与解放军代表会谈，呼吁军队发展出新的战斗力。

The Chinese government’s science and technology budget this year is equal to about $172 billion, second to the United States. But government cuts under Mr. Trump could narrow the U.S. lead. Including investment from businesses, the United States spent $806 billion on research and development in 2021, compared to $668 billion in China, according to an estimate last year from the U.S. National Science Foundation.

中国政府今年的科技预算约为1720亿美元，仅次于美国。但特朗普政府的削减可能会缩小美国的领先优势。根据美国国家科学基金会去年的估计，包括企业投资在内，美国在2021年的研发支出为8060亿美元，而中国为6680亿美元。

“Over the past six or seven years of U.S.-China strategic competition, the two most important issues have been geopolitics and technology,” said Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei who studies Chinese politics. “In China they probably see that there may be a little less pressure on them geopolitically, but there won’t be any easing up from Trump on the technology front.”

“在过去六七年的中美战略竞争中，最重要的两个问题是地缘政治和技术，”位于台北的国立政治大学研究中国政治的教授王信贤说。“在中国，他们可能会看到，他们在地缘政治上的压力可能会减轻一点，但特朗普在技术方面不会有任何放松。”

Some critics have argued that Mr. Xi’s bet on futuristic goals comes at the cost of providing help to Chinese citizens struggling to make ends meet. The economy is still sagging under a steep fall in housing prices. The number of retirees is growing and the birthrate has slumped. Yet Mr. Xi appears insistent that China can overcome its problems by tilting spending to technological projects and upgrading industry.

一些批评人士认为，习近平对未来目标的押注，意味着那些艰难度日的中国国民将得不到帮助。在房价急剧下跌的影响下，经济仍处于低迷状态。退休人员的数量在增加，出生率在下降。然而，习近平似乎坚持认为，中国可以通过向技术项目和产业升级倾斜支出来克服困难。

So far, Mr. Xi has not indicated a willingness to rein in China’s export drive after Mr. Trump imposed additional tariffs on goods from China.

在特朗普对来自中国的商品征收额外关税后，到目前为止，习近平还没有表示控制中国出口的意愿。

习近平把为期一周的会议变成了一场精心策划的活动，向他自己和他的愿景致敬。

Nor does Mr. Xi seem worried about any threats to his political dominance. After more than 12 years in power, he has given no sign of choosing a successor. The retired leaders who may once have hemmed in his power have mostly passed away. He has never slackened his tight grip on the key levers of power, such as the Ministry of State Security, said Jonathan Czin, a researcher at the Brookings Institution who formerly worked in the Central Intelligence Agency and studies Chinese politics.

习近平似乎也不担心他的政治统治地位会受到任何威胁。执政12年多后，他没有任何选择继任者的迹象。曾经可能限制他权力的退休领导人大多已经去世。研究中国政治、曾在中央情报局工作的布鲁金斯学会研究员席恩(Jonathan Czin)说，他从未放松对国家安全部等关键权力机构的牢牢控制。

“So far, I see zero evidence of meaningful cracks in Xi’s control. Who at this point in Xi’s tenure would have the temerity to challenge Xi?” Mr. Czin said. “He wields the anti-corruption apparatus like a cudgel, ready to bludgeon any potential opponent.”

“迄今为止，我没有看到任何证据表明习近平的控制出现有意义的裂痕。在习近平的任期内，谁有胆量挑战习近平？”席恩说。“他操纵的反腐机器就像一把大棒，随时准备打击任何潜在的对手。

For decades, the rest of the world, especially China and countries in Europe, have produced much more than they have consumed, selling goods to America in exchange for an ever-growing pile of U.S. dollars. This could happen because the United States consumes much more than it produces, gobbling up the difference in the form of persistent trade deficits, and financing those deficits with debt, which Chinese and European investors are happy to buy.

几十年来，世界其他国家（尤其是中国和欧洲国家）生产的产品远远超出消费需求，这些国家向美国出售商品，换取越来越多的美元。之所以会出现这种情况，是因为美国的消费远远超过了自身的生产，以持续的贸易逆差的形式来填补两者的差异，并通过举债为这些逆差融资，而中国和欧洲的投资者乐于购买这些债务。

President Trump is unwilling to accept this state of affairs. His administration has accelerated a shift to what my colleagues and I at the investment management firm Bridgewater Associates call modern mercantilism: the view that trade deficits are a threat to national wealth and strength.

特朗普总统不愿接受这种状况。他的政府加快了向我和我在投资管理公司桥水的同事所称的现代重商主义的转变：认为贸易逆差对国家财富和实力构成了威胁。

Mr. Trump and many of his supporters believe that persistent trade deficits have made America dangerously dependent on other economies, put national security at risk and undermined stable middle-class work. That’s the primary reason he is imposing tariffs and adopting other policies that are in the headlines today.

特朗普和他的许多支持者都认为持续的贸易赤字使美国对其他经济体产生了危险的依赖，这不仅危及国家安全，还破坏了中产阶级稳定的就业机会。这就是他征收关税、采取其他引人关注的政策的主要原因。

While modern mercantilist policies are meant to counter all American competitors, they pose a particularly severe threat to Europe’s economic engine. If the United States is unwilling to continue to run big trade deficits, it means that the “pie” available to everyone else to produce more than they consume is shrinking.

尽管现代重商主义政策旨在对抗美国所有的竞争对手，但它们对欧洲的经济引擎构成了尤为严峻的威胁。如果美国不愿继续维持巨额贸易逆差，那就意味着可供其他国家和地区生产多于消费的“蛋糕”正在缩小。

But this challenge could finally push the region toward urgently needed change and economic revitalization. After Mr. Trump’s recent actions and comments on Ukraine, Europe has abruptly realized that it can no longer rely on the United States for security; the region needs to acknowledge that it can’t rely on the U.S. for economic stability, either.

不过，这一挑战最终可能会促使欧洲走向迫切需要的变革和经济振兴。在特朗普最近就乌克兰问题采取的行动和发表的言论之后，欧洲突然意识到，它不能再依赖美国来保障安全；它也需要认识到，同样不能把经济稳定寄托在美国身上。

The United States has the upper hand in this trade conflict precisely because it currently runs large trade deficits. It has more imports to tariff than exports, and it has more to gain should American companies respond by increasing domestic investment and bringing supply chains back home.

美国在这场贸易冲突中有优势，恰恰是因为它目前存在巨大的贸易逆差。它需要征收关税的进口商品多于出口商品，而且如果美国企业通过增加国内投资并将供应链带回国内，美国将获得更多收益。

This is the opposite of its positioning during the Great Depression-era trade war, which began with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. The United States was the one running a trade surplus at the time, so it was more vulnerable to tariffs and protectionist measures.

这与美国在大萧条时期贸易战中的处境截然相反，那场贸易战始于1930年的《斯穆特-霍利关税法》。当时美国是贸易顺差国，所以更容易受到关税和保护主义措施的冲击。

As tariffs ramp up, every country running a surplus with America will find it harder to sell its products in the United States, but those in Europe will suffer most, because their most important industries are exactly those where China has built the biggest advantages.

随着关税不断提高，每个对美贸易顺差的国家都会发现，向美国出口变得越来越难，但欧洲国家受到的损失最大，因为它们最重要的产业恰恰是中国已建立最大优势的产业。

China has held modern mercantilist beliefs for decades and has for many years used the instruments of government to subsidize industries that it considers strategically important, taking huge losses along the way. At times, it has supported production well above the level of demand in the marketplace.

几十年来，中国一直奉行现代重商主义，多年来一直利用政府工具来补贴它认为具有重要战略意义的产业，并在此过程中承受巨大损失。有时，它支持的生产远远高于市场需求水平。

After decades of government-supported technological advancement, China is a strong competitor in a wide range of sectors: cars, advanced industrial machinery, electrical equipment and appliances; not to mention fields, such as artificial intelligence, that Chinese policymakers prize. As a result, Chinese companies are well positioned to grab the biggest piece of the available trade surplus pie.

经过几十年政府支持的技术进步，中国在众多领域都成为了强有力的竞争者：汽车、先进工业机械、电气设备和电器等；更不用说人工智能等中国政策制定者极为重视的领域了。因此，中国企业完全有能力争夺现存的贸易顺差“蛋糕”最大的一块。

Europe, on the other hand, will find itself increasingly squeezed, with the United States unwilling to absorb what it produces and China competing against it in Europe and in whatever smaller countries remain that are still open to exports.

另一方面，欧洲将发现自己越来越受到挤压，因为美国不愿意吸收它生产的产品，而中国在欧洲以及任何仍然对出口开放的较小国家与欧洲展开竞争。

The European auto industry is already feeling this squeeze. Foreign electric vehicle manufacturers have upended the market, particularly Tesla and Chinese companies like BYD, both of which were supported by varying levels of government industrial policy until they became profitable. European governments, however, have been hesitant to follow the same path and funnel public money to private industry; they are caught between a desire to protect their own automakers from Chinese competition and the fear of losing access to the Chinese market if China reciprocates with protectionist measures.

欧洲的汽车行业已经感受到了这种挤压。外国电动汽车制造商已经颠覆了这个市场，尤其是特斯拉以及比亚迪等中国车企。在实现盈利之前，这两家企业都在不同程度上得到了政府产业政策的支持。然而，欧洲各国政府却始终在犹豫是否走同样的路，向私营企业注入公共资金；他们陷入了左右为难的境地，一方面希望保护本国汽车制造商免受中国车企的竞争，另一方面又担心如果中国以保护主义措施进行回应，欧洲将失去中国市场。

The threat to Europe’s auto industry is existential; investors’ views on these companies are so pessimistic as to imply they may lose the battle to survive. If stock prices continue on this downward trajectory, the economic pain from knocking out such an important industry will expand to the rest of the economy, ramping up pressure on European leaders to adopt protectionism and competitive industrial policy.

欧洲汽车工业面临着生存威胁；投资者对这些企业的看法非常悲观，甚至认为它们可能会输掉生存之战。如果股价继续下行，那么淘汰如此重要的产业所带来的经济痛苦将扩大到经济的其他领域，从而加大对欧洲领导人采取保护主义和竞争性产业政策的压力。

While the pressure to protect these legacy industries will be intense, it will be a colossal mistake if Europe fails to simultaneously address what made its economies so vulnerable in the first place: slow productivity growth and weak innovation. China built itself into a competitive powerhouse through technological disruption (in part government supported), while the United States has handily outperformed Europe in technological innovation and productivity growth over the past decade. For example, California has produced more than a quarter of the world’s “unicorns” — young companies valued at over $1 billion — while Germany, an economy of roughly the same size, has produced only 2 percent.

虽然保护这些传统产业的压力会很大，但如果在同一时间，欧洲不能首先解决使其经济如此脆弱的原因（生产力增长缓慢和创新能力不足），那将是一个巨大的错误。中国通过（部分得到政府支持的）技术颠覆将自己打造成了一个具有竞争力的强国，而美国在过去十年中的技术创新和生产率增长则远超欧洲。比如，加利福尼亚州诞生了全球超过四分之一的“独角兽”企业（即估值超过10亿美元的新兴企业），而经济规模与之大致相当的德国只有2%。

Europe has lagged behind the United States thanks to its fractious and duplicative regulatory system, particularly in the tech sector, and rigid labor markets that make it hard for companies to hire and fire workers.

欧洲之所以落后于美国，是因为其监管体系（尤其是在科技领域）混乱、重复监管，而且劳动力市场僵化，企业很难雇用和解雇员工。

These problems are well known. In 2024, the European Union released a sobering report on its competitiveness, led by the former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi, that was unsparing in its criticism and forceful in its recommendations for change.

这些问题是众所周知的。2024年，由意大利前总理马里奥·德拉吉牵头，欧盟发布了一份令人警醒的竞争力报告，该报告毫不留情地指出了问题所在，并提出了有力的变革建议。

Some of its proposals, such as nearly $900 billion of public investment in sectors like technology and defense, could be transformative, addressing some of the most acute barriers to productivity and innovation in Europe. So far, European policymakers have been slow to execute the Draghi report’s recommendations, despite widespread calls to move with urgency.

报告中的一些建议，例如在技术和国防等领域进行近9000亿美元的公共投资，可能会带来变革，解决欧洲生产力和创新方面面临的一些最严重障碍。到目前为止，欧洲的决策者在落实德拉吉报告的建议方面进展缓慢，尽管人们普遍呼吁要尽快采取行动。

The continent’s security crisis may finally be galvanizing action. Germany has taken a essential step and forgone self-imposed constraints on fiscal policy to make meaningful investments in defense. The question is whether Europe will take this opportunity to more broadly transform its economy — and whether its leaders will realize they have no other good choices.

欧洲大陆的安全危机或许最终会促使人们采取行动。德国已经迈出了关键一步，放弃了对财政政策的自我限制，以便在国防领域进行有意义的投资。问题在于，欧洲是否会借此机会更广泛地进行经济转型，以及欧洲的领导人是否会意识到，他们没有其他更好的选择。

After word leaked out about a clash at the White House where members of President Trump’s cabinet challenged the authority of Elon Musk to reshape their departments, one of the president’s top allies, Stephen K. Bannon, quickly piled on.

在白宫会议中，特朗普总统的内阁成员对埃隆·马斯克是否有权整改其管辖部门表达了质疑，这条白宫内讧的消息传出来后，总统的重要盟友斯蒂芬·班农迅速加入战团。

Mr. Bannon, who has characterized Mr. Musk as an interloper, a “parasitic illegal immigrant” and a “truly evil person,” suggested the world’s richest man was weighing Mr. Trump down.

班农此前就曾把马斯克描述为闯入者、“寄生的非法移民”、“真正邪恶的人”，他的言下之意是，这位世界首富正在拖累特朗普。

“I don’t want to say an anchor or lodestone,” Mr. Bannon said on Friday of Mr. Musk on his show “War Room,” which is watched closely by a number of Trump allies, as well as the president himself. “It’s not that yet, but it’s trending — that is starting to affect everybody.”

“我倒不是说他是个船锚或磁石，”班农上周五在自己的播客节目“战情室”中谈到马斯克时说，该节目受到特朗普的许多盟友以及总统本人的密切关注。“还没到那个程度，但这是个趋势，并在开始影响所有的人。”

The longstanding animus between Mr. Bannon and Mr. Musk encapsulates a key tension at the heart of Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. It pits those like Mr. Bannon, who want Mr. Trump to carry out a more fully populist agenda, against ultrawealthy interests, epitomized by Mr. Musk, who occupy key positions in the president’s orbit.

班农与马斯克之间存在已久的敌意概括了特朗普“让美国恢复伟大荣光”（简称MAGA）运动核心的一个主要矛盾。这个矛盾让像班农这样的人与以马斯克为代表的超级富豪利益集团对立起来，班农想让特朗普实施更全面的民粹主义议程，而马斯克等人已在总统的圈子里占据关键位置。

Mr. Trump has made clear he wants to keep both men and their allies within his movement, but Mr. Bannon’s vocal disdain for Mr. Musk has been noticed by the president. In mid-February, the president told Mr. Bannon that he wanted him to lay off the attacks on Mr. Musk and for the two men to sit down privately, according to two people familiar with the comments.

特朗普已明确表示，他想把这两人以及他们的盟友留在自己的运动内，但班农对马斯克的公开蔑视已引起了总统的注意。据两名知情人士透露，总统已在2月中旬告诉班农，希望他停止对马斯克的攻击，并且两人能私下坐下来谈谈。

That meeting has not happened yet, and it is not clear when or if it will.

会面尚未实现，也不清楚何时或是否会有这样一场会面。

But Mr. Trump’s effort to mediate between the two men, which has not been previously reported, reflects the president’s awareness that Mr. Bannon has a powerful megaphone with key parts of the MAGA base.

但特朗普在两人之间进行调解的努力——此前没有这方面的报道——反映出，总统清楚班农对MAGA票仓的一些关键部分有着巨大的影响力。

Mr. Bannon has been preaching about populism since the Tea Party wave slowly started to remake the Republican Party in 2010. He and his acolytes see Mr. Musk as an opportunist with no ideological stake in the MAGA movement who only wants to advance his own interests.

自从茶党浪潮2010年开始慢慢地重塑共和党以来，班农一直在宣扬民粹主义。他和他的追随者们将马斯克视为机会主义者，只想推进自己的利益，毫无与MAGA运动相关的意识形态立场。

But Mr. Bannon’s vision for the movement also has its fair share of critics for its alignment with right-wing nationalism, which he has labeled a “badge of honor.” “Let them call you racists,” Mr. Bannon told a far-right gathering in France in 2018. “Let them call you xenophobes. Let them call you nativists.”

然而，班农对这场运动的设想与右翼民族主义保持一致，因此也受到不少批评，他把这些批评称为“光荣的奖章”。“让他们把你们称为种族主义者吧，”班农2018年在一场法国极右翼集会上说。“让他们把你们称为仇外者吧。让他们把你们称为本土主义者吧。”

Mr. Musk, who was a Trump critic for years before becoming one of his biggest benefactors, has seemingly given little thought to the MAGA movement and its future. Mr. Musk has been privately irritated by Mr. Bannon’s attacks at times, according to people in touch with him. But he has only rarely engaged with Mr. Bannon. “Bannon is a great talker, but not a great doer,” Mr. Musk posted on X, his social media platform, last month. “What did he get done this week? Nothing.”

在成为特朗普最大的支持者之一前，马斯克一直是特朗普的批评者，似乎没怎么把MAGA运动及其未来当回事。据与马斯克有联系的人说，马斯克有时私下里对班农的攻击感到恼火，但他很少直接与班农交战。“班农很能说，但不太擅长实干，”马斯克上个月在自己的社交媒体平台X上发帖写道。“这周他干了什么？什么都没干。”

马斯克上周三出席了特朗普总统在白宫召开的首次内阁会议。马斯克已在特朗普核心圈中树立牢固的地位。

In a statement, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said: “We do not comment on private conversations that may or may not have occurred. President Trump is thrilled with DOGE’s historic work under Elon Musk, and he will continue to cut the waste, fraud, and abuse in our federal government on behalf of the American people.”

白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特在声明中表示：“我们不对可能发生也可能没有发生的私人谈话发表评论。特朗普总统对政府效率部在埃隆·马斯克领导下的历史性工作感到振奋，他将继续代表美国人民，减少联邦政府中的浪费、欺诈和滥用行为。”

A spokeswoman for Mr. Musk did not respond to a request for comment.

马斯克的发言人没有回应置评请求。

Mr. Bannon also has clear ideological disagreements with Mr. Musk, particularly over immigration. Mr. Bannon vigorously disagrees with Mr. Musk’s support for H-1B visas, which allow high-skilled individuals to work in America. Mr. Bannon has also warned that billionaires like Mr. Musk and other tech executives — many of whom supported Democrats before backing Mr. Trump — will abandon the MAGA movement.

班农与马斯克在意识形态上也存在明显分歧，尤其是在移民问题上。班农强烈反对马斯克对H-1B签证的支持，这种签证允许高技能人才在美国工作。班农还警告说，像马斯克和其他科技高管这样的亿万富翁——其中许多人在支持特朗普之前曾支持民主党——会抛弃MAGA运动。

“Bannon has been a dyed-in-the-wool conservative for his entire life, and he believes very strongly in these core values,” said Barry Bennett, a Republican strategist who worked on Mr. Trump’s first presidential campaign with Mr. Bannon. “He is always naturally suspicious of people who pop up and don’t have the pedigree that he has.”

“班农一生都是坚定的保守派，他非常坚信这些核心价值观，”曾与班农一起参与特朗普首次总统竞选的共和党策略师巴里·贝内特说。“他总是对突然冒出来的、没有像他那种背景的人自然而然地抱有怀疑。”

Mr. Musk in some ways came out of left field as a die-hard supporter of Mr. Trump.

某些方面来看，马斯克成为特朗普的铁杆支持者是出人意料的。

Throughout Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Musk had a lengthy list of critiques. He privately disparaged Mr. Trump’s tariff policies, his obsession with coal mines instead of gigafactories and his hard-line stances on immigration. More broadly, Mr. Musk railed against those who he believed had become tribal in their politics, according to people familiar with his comments.

在特朗普的第一个任期内，马斯克对他有一长串批评。他私下里贬低特朗普的关税政策，还有特朗普对煤矿而不是超级工厂的痴迷，以及特朗普在移民问题上的强硬立场。据了解马斯克言论的人士透露，在更宽泛的层面上，马斯克抨击了那些他认为在政治上集团意识很强的人。

In 2023, Mr. Musk signaled he would support the presidential campaign of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida before changing his mind as Mr. DeSantis’s campaign struggled out of the gate. Last month, Mr. Musk posted on social media that he loves Mr. Trump “as much as a straight man can love another man.”

2023年，马斯克表示，他将支持佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯的总统竞选，但随着德桑蒂斯的竞选活动步履维艰，他改变了主意。上个月，马斯克在社交媒体上发帖形容他多么爱特朗普，“这就是一个直男能对另一个男人产生的最深的爱了。”

Among the MAGA faithful, both men have deep fan bases. Mr. Bannon is one of the movement’s original content creators, dating back to his days overseeing Breitbart News and now through “The War Room.” Mr. Musk, meanwhile, has endeared himself to the movement through his transformation of X, formerly known as Twitter, into a hub of conservative activity.

在“让美国恢复伟大荣光”的忠实拥趸之中，马斯克和班农都有深厚的粉丝基础。班农是该运动最早的内容创作者之一，这方面可以追溯到他掌管布莱巴特新闻的时候，现在则是通过“战情室”播客。与此同时，马斯克将X（原名Twitter）转变为保守派活动的中心，从而在这场运动中深受青睐。

“Musk is the volume button,” Mr. Bennett said. “You can say things now on Twitter and you can reach millions and millions of people where 10 years ago you would reach tens of thousands. He has made that available to us. There are a lot of people who are in the right of center movement who are very reliant on the medium to distribute their content. They are very grateful to him for allowing that to happen.”

“马斯克就像音量键，”贝内特说。“你现在可以在Twitter上发表言论，你可以让成百上千万人看到你，10年前你只能让几万人看到你。他让我们有了这个机会。中右翼运动中有很多人都非常依赖Twitter来传播他们的内容。他们非常感激他让这一切成为可能。”

班农的团队为他的“战情室”播客报道2024年选举日的投票情况。班农是最坚持“特朗普的2020年大选胜果被窃取”这一谎言的人之一。

In an interview with The New York Times last month, Mr. Bannon said there were fundamental differences between him and Mr. Musk.

班农上个月接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，他和马斯克之间存在根本分歧。

“He’s still not a populist nationalist, he’s a globalist,” Mr. Bannon said of the tech billionaire. “He and I have a chasm that is probably insurmountable.”

“他仍然不是民粹主义民族主义者，他是全球主义者，”班农在谈到这位科技亿万富翁时说。“他和我之间存在可能无法逾越的鸿沟。”

As for Mr. Musk, his future intentions regarding politics are unclear. But one thing is not: Having been born in South Africa, he is ineligible to run for president — a fact Mr. Trump has noted publicly.

至于马斯克，他未来的政治意图尚不明确。但有一件事是明确的：他出生在南非，没有资格竞选美国总统——特朗普已经公开指出了这一点。

Wall Street suffered its steepest decline of the year on Monday, a drop fueled by angst about the economy a day after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that his policies could trigger a recession.

周一，华尔街遭遇了今年以来最大幅度的下跌。就在前一天，特朗普总统拒绝排除其政策可能引发经济衰退的可能性，这引发了人们对经济的担忧，正是这种担忧推动了此次股市的下跌。

The S&P 500 slid 2.7 percent, the worst daily fall in an already three-week-long stretch of selling. The index is now roughly 9 percent below a record set last month, and approaching a “correction,” a Wall Street term for a decline of 10 percent or more from a recent high.

标准普尔500指数下跌2.7%，这是已持续三周的抛售行情中最大的单日跌幅。该指数目前较上月创下的纪录低了约9%，接近“修正”，这是一个华尔街术语，指从近期高点下跌10%或更多。

Over the past few weeks, Mr. Trump has threatened, imposed, suspended and resumed tariffs on America’s largest trade partners: Canada, Mexico and China. The dizzying shifts, including last-minute exemptions for some automakers and energy products, have unnerved investors.

过去几周，特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国这几个美国最大的贸易伙伴威胁、征收、暂停和恢复关税。这些令人眼花缭乱的变化，包括一些汽车制造商和能源产品在最后一刻获得豁免，令投资者感到不安。

“The market volatility is much less about the bad news of tariffs and much more about the uncertainty of tariffs, especially uncertainty as to what the policy is, where it is headed, how long it will last and what the end result will be,” said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group.

巴恩森集团首席投资官戴维·巴恩森表示：“市场波动与关税的坏消息关系不大，更多的是与关税的不确定性相关，尤其是政策内容、政策走向、政策持续时间以及最终结果方面的不确定性。”

In a Fox News interview that aired on Sunday, Mr. Trump was asked about “rising worries about a slowdown,” by the host, Maria Bartiromo. He described what might follow as “a period of transition,” and didn’t rule out the possibility that his policies would cause a recession. Asked during the interview when businesses might have clarity on the on-again, off-again tariff policies, Mr. Trump responded by suggesting that more tariffs could come.

在周日播出的福克斯新闻采访中，主持人玛丽亚·巴蒂罗姆询问特朗普“对经济放缓的担忧日益加剧”问题。他将接下来的时间描述为“一段过渡期”，并没有排除他的政策会导致经济衰退的可能性。当被问及企业何时可能对反反复复的关税政策产生清晰认识的时候，特朗普的回应暗示，可能会有更多的关税出台。

“We may go up with some tariffs. It depends. We may go up. I don’t think we’ll go down, or we may go up,” he said. “They have plenty of clarity.”

“我们可能会提高一些关税。这要看情况。我们可能会提高。我认为我们不会减少，也可能提高，”他说。“它们已经足够清晰了。”

On Monday, retaliatory tariffs by China on U.S. agricultural products came into effect. On Wednesday, the Trump administration is set to put in place a 25 percent tariff on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports. Mr. Trump has also threatened to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on all U.S. imports to match other countries’ tariffs and trading policies next month.

周一，中国对美国农产品的报复性关税生效。周三，特朗普政府将对所有进口钢铝征收25%的关税。特朗普还威胁要在下个月对所有美国进口商品征收“对等关税”，与其他国家的关税和贸易政策相匹配。

A White House spokesman, Kush Desai, said in a statement on Monday: “Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs. President Trump delivered historic job, wage and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

白宫发言人库什·德赛周一在声明中表示：“自特朗普总统当选以来，行业领袖们以数万亿美元的投资承诺回应了特朗普总统的美国优先经济议程，包括关税、放松监管和释放美国能源，这些承诺将创造成千上万新的就业机会。特朗普总统在他的第一个任期内实现了历史性的就业、工资和投资增长，并有望在他的第二个任期内再次实现这样的目标。”

The S&P 500 has now erased all the gains it made since Election Day. The Nasdaq has been hit even harder, as a rally in big tech stocks driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence reversed course. The index fell into a correction last week, and dropped a further 4 percent on Monday.

标普500指数现在已经抹去了选举日之后的所有涨幅。纳斯达克受到的冲击更大，受人工智能热情推动的大型科技股涨势逆转。该指数上周进入修正期，周一进一步下跌4%。

“There’s just no support in the tech stocks right now,” said Larry Tentarelli, the chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.

“现在科技股没有支撑，”蓝筹每日趋势报告的首席技术策略师拉里·坦塔雷利说。

Many tech companies have grown so large that movements in their stocks have an outsize influence on the broader market. On Monday, several of the biggest companies were down sharply: Tesla plunged more than 15 percent, adding to a losing streak that’s come amid falling sales and as investors worry that its chief executive, Elon Musk, has been distracted by his role in the Trump administration. Alphabet, Apple and Nvidia each fell more than 4 percent.

许多科技公司已经发展得如此庞大，以至于它们的股票走势对大盘具有超乎寻常的影响力。周一，几家最大的公司股价大幅下跌：特斯拉股价暴跌超过15%，延续了该公司的连跌趋势，此前该公司的销量不断下降，投资者担心它的首席执行官马斯克因自己在特朗普政府中的角色而分心。“字母表”公司、苹果和英伟达的跌幅均超过4%。

Stocks in Europe and Asia were also under pressure, but the declines paled in comparison with losses on Wall Street. An index tracking the eurozone’s largest public companies, which hit a record last week, dropped 1.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.9 percent.

欧洲和亚洲股市也面临压力，但与华尔街相比，它们的跌幅相对较小。追踪欧元区最大上市公司的指数上周跌了1.3%，创下历史新高。香港恒生指数下跌1.9%。

Investors seeking havens continued to opt for the relative safety of bonds, pushing down the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.22 percent; bond prices move inversely to yields. The combination of falling stocks and declining interest rates is often seen as a sign of economic unease. Oil prices also fell, another signal of concern about the broader economy.

寻求避险的投资者继续选择相对安全的债券，推动10年期美国公债收益率降至4.22%；债券价格与收益率呈反向变动。股市下跌和利率下降的结合通常被视为经济不安的信号。油价也在下跌，这是人们对整体经济感到担忧的另一个信号。

Those worries are also reflected by traders’ bets that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting the rate it controls, pricing in three or more such cuts this year, according to CME FedWatch. Stock investors generally embrace rate reductions, which lower the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, but not when they are spurred by concerns about the economy.

这些担忧也反映在交易员的押注上，他们认为美联储将恢复降息，根据CME FedWatch的预测，今年将有三次或更多次降息。股市投资者一般会欢迎降息，因为这可以降低企业和消费者的借贷成本，但在被经济的担忧刺激下，他们就不会这样想了。

Monday’s losses were Wall Street’s worst since December, when the Federal Reserve dialed down expectations for interest rate cuts in response to the continued strength of the U.S. economy. As in previous rounds of selling, stocks did eventually recover their footing as concerns about the economy eased and lower market valuations drew in bargain seekers.

周一的跌幅是华尔街自去年12月以来最大的一次，当时美联储因美国经济持续强劲而调低了降息预期。与前几轮抛售一样，随着对经济的担忧有所缓解，以及较低的市场估值吸引了抄底的投资者，股市最终恢复了元气。

By most measures, the U.S. economy is still in good shape. On Friday, the latest data on hiring showed that employers continue to add workers at a healthy pace.

从大多数方面来看，美国经济仍处于良好状态。上周五，最新的招聘数据显示，雇主继续以稳健速度增加就业岗位。

But economists have turned gloomier as they come to grips with Mr. Trump’s seesawing approach to tariffs, which has hamstrung businesses trying to plan investments and hiring. Cuts to the federal work force and government spending freezes have also dented consumer sentiment.

但经济学家们对特朗普在关税问题上摇摆不定的态度变得更加忧虑，这种做法阻碍了试图规划投资和招聘的企业。联邦政府裁员和政府支出冻结也打击了消费者信心。

“The markets are scared of the uncertainty that the tariff rhetoric is bringing,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities.

“市场对关税言论带来的不确定性感到害怕，”国家联盟证券公司的国际固定收益主管安德鲁·布伦纳表示。

A report on inflation due this week will be closely watched, as surveys of consumers suggest that they expect price increases to pick up, a potentially worrying sign for the Fed as it tries to bring inflation down further. The rising cost of eggs and other necessities has squeezed shoppers’ wallets, and tariffs and mass deportations could push prices higher.

将于本周发布的一份通胀报告将受到密切关注，因为对消费者的调查显示，他们预计物价将加速上涨，这对试图进一步降低通胀的美联储来说可能是一个令人担忧的迹象。鸡蛋和其他必需品价格的上涨让消费者的钱包吃紧，而关税和大规模驱逐可能会进一步推高价格。

Given a murkier outlook for the American economy, “the recent moves might well have further to go,” Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Monday. Strategists at the bank recently increased the chances of a U.S. recession in the coming year to 20 percent.

高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐乌斯在周一的一份报告中说，鉴于美国经济前景更加不明朗，“近期的走势很可能还会持续。”该银行的策略师们最近将美国经济在未来一年陷入衰退的可能性提高到了20%。

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned in a report that the spillover from a possible U.S. slowdown has resulted in a “materially higher risk of a global recession this year due to extreme U.S. policies.” They put the probability of such a downturn at 40 percent.

摩根大通的分析师在一份报告中警告称，“由于美国的极端政策”，美国经济可能放缓的溢出效应导致“今年全球经济衰退的风险大大增加”。他们认为出现这种衰退的可能性为40%。

Beijing began imposing tariffs on Monday on many farm products from the United States, for which China is the largest overseas market. It is the latest escalation of a trade fight between the world’s two largest economies.

中国政府周一开始对来自美国的多种农产品加征关税，中国是美国农产品的最大海外市场。这是世界两个最大经济体之间贸易战的新一轮升级。

The Chinese government announced the tariffs last week, shortly after President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products for the second time since he took office in January. The Chinese tariffs will include a levy of 15 percent on U.S. products like chicken, wheat and corn, as well as 10 percent on products like soybeans, pork, beef and fruit.

中国政府上周宣布了这些关税，那之前，美国总统特朗普自1月上任以来第二次提高对中国进口产品的关税。中国将对原产于美国的鸡肉、小麦、玉米等加征15%的关税，对大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水果等加征10%的关税。

Beijing said that goods that had already been shipped before Monday and imported by April 12 would not be subject to the new tariffs. Because crops like soybeans, wheat and corn, in particular, tend to travel by sea, this means that China’s customs officials will actually collect few tariffs until shipments arrive in China after leaving the United States on Monday or later.

中国政府表示，周一前已经发货并在4月12日前进口的货物将不受新关税的影响。由于大豆、小麦等农产品，尤其是玉米，往往是走海运，这意味着中国海关官员实际上要等到这些货物在周一或之后离开美国并抵达中国时才开始加征关税。

A spokesman for the National People’s Congress, which is now holding China’s annual legislative session, said last week that Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs had “disrupted the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains.”

中国的全国人民代表大会目前正在举行年度立法会议，全国人大的发言人上周表示，特朗普的新一轮关税“干扰全球产业链供应链安全稳定”。

The Chinese government also said it was blocking 15 U.S. companies from buying Chinese products unless it granted special permission, including a manufacturer of drones that supplies the U.S. military. And it said it was blocking another 10 U.S. companies from doing business in China.

中国政府还表示，15家美国公司将不再被允许从中国购买产品，除非得到特别许可，其中包括一家为美国军方提供无人机的制造商。中国政府还表示，将禁止另外十家美国公司在中国开展业务。

Mr. Trump has contended that tariffs are needed on imports from China, most of which are manufactured goods, to allow the United States to rebuild its industrial sector and also to generate tax revenue for the federal budget. He imposed a 10 percent tariff on almost all imports from China in early February, and raised the tariff to 20 percent last week. He has said the actions were intended partly to pressure China to reduce the flow of the opioid fentanyl into the United States.

特朗普认为，为了让美国重建工业部门，并为联邦预算创造税收收入，有必要对从中国进口的商品（大部分是制成品）加征关税。他已在今年2月初对几乎所有从中国进口的商品加征了10%的关税，并在上周将加征的关税提高到了20%。他表示，这些行动的部分目的是向中国政府施压，让其减少合成类鸦片药物芬太尼流入美国。

Mr. Trump also imposed 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico last Tuesday, though he abruptly suspended many of those levies two days later.

特朗普上周二还对来自加拿大和墨西哥的产品加征了25%的关税，不过两天后，他突然对其中许多产品暂停了加征关税的做法。

He has added 20 percent tariffs to the roughly $440 billion worth of Chinese goods that the United States imports annually. The average U.S. tariff on affected Chinese goods now stands at 39 percent, up from 3 percent when Mr. Trump began his first term eight years ago. Other than China, Canada and Mexico, the United States collects tariffs averaging about 3 percent on most countries.

他已对美国每年从中国进口的价值约4400亿美元的商品加征了20%的关税。他的行动把受影响的中国进口产品的平均关税提高到了39%，远高于八年前开始第一个任期时的3%。除对中国、加拿大、墨西哥的进口产品加征了关税外，美国对大多数贸易伙伴的进口产品征收平均约3%的关税。

美国北达科他州卡灵顿附近的玉米田。中国将对从美国进口的玉米加征15%的关税，对大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水果等加征10%的关税。

Despite the recent escalations in the trade war between Washington and Beijing, both sides have signaled that they may be open to a compromise. Last week, China’s commerce minister told reporters that he had invited his American counterpart and the U.S. trade representative to a meeting. And last month, Mr. Trump said that a new trade deal with China was “possible.”

尽管美中之间的贸易战最近已有几轮升级，但双方都已发出信号，他们也许对妥协持开放态度。中国商务部长上周对记者表示，他已向美国商务部长和贸易代表发出会面的邀请。特朗普上个月曾表示，“有可能”与中国达成新的贸易协议。

Monday’s levies are not the first time in recent weeks that China has responded in kind to Mr. Trump’s trade actions. After the president imposed 10 percent tariffs in early February, China said it would place tariffs on natural gas, coal and farm equipment purchased from the United States.

周一生效的关税并不是中国政府第一次在最近几周对特朗普的贸易行动宣布反制措施。特朗普今年2月初对中国产品加征10%的关税后，中国曾表示将对从美国进口的天然气、煤炭、农用设备等加征关税。

But the United States has more targets in a trade war because Americans purchase far more goods from China than the Chinese purchase from Americans. This enabled the United States to one-up China relatively easily after China imposed reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods during Mr. Trump’s first term.

但美国在这场贸易战中能打击的目标更多，因为美国从中国的进口远多于出口。这曾让美国在特朗普上次担任总统期间相对容易地在抵御中国反制措施方面占上风。

But Mao Ning, a spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, contended at the ministry’s daily briefing on Monday that nobody should be imposing extra tariffs. “Trade wars and tariff wars all start with harming others and end with harming oneself — the United States should learn lessons and change its course,” she said.

但中国外交部发言人毛宁在周一的例行记者会上表示，任何国家都不应征收额外关税。“关税战也好，贸易战也罢，都是以损人开始，以害己告终。美方应该吸取教训，改弦易辙，”她说。

China faces a more troubled domestic economy now than during President Trump’s first term. It is hamstrung by economic problems including weak foreign investment and the aftermath of a real estate bust.

中国目前面临的国内经济问题比特朗普上次当总统时更严重。它正受到外国投资疲软、房地产泡沫破裂等经济问题的困扰。

Still, China has other tools for managing the ongoing trade skirmish. In the past, it has cut taxes on Chinese companies that export goods to the United States, enabling them to cut prices and dampen the effects of a U.S. tariff.

尽管如此，中国仍有其他工具来应对不断发展的贸易冲突。中国以前曾降低过向美国出口商品的中国公司的税收，让它们对进口商降价，从而减轻美国关税的影响。

Chinese companies have also moved final assembly of their products to countries like Vietnam and Mexico, with which the United States has had relatively free trade relations in recent decades. But Mr. Trump has tried to tighten this loophole by threatening tariffs on Mexico.

中国公司也已将产品的最终组装转移到了越南和墨西哥等国，美国与这些国家的贸易关系近几十年来相对自由。但特朗普已试图弥补这一漏洞，威胁要对墨西哥产品加征关税。

And Chinese companies have sought to exploit the so-called de minimis rule, which exempts packages from tariffs if their value is $800 or less. Mr. Trump has tried to crack down on this practice, but the crackdown proved complicated to execute, and Mr. Trump has largely paused the effort.

中国公司还试图利用所谓“小额豁免规则”避免关税，美国对价值800美元以下的入关包裹免征关税。特朗普已试图打击这种做法，但事实证明打击行动执行起来很复杂，所以特朗普已基本上暂停了这项努力。

In early 2017, American intelligence agencies delivered an unequivocal judgment about why President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had ordered a sprawling effort to sabotage the recent American presidential election.

2017年初，对于俄罗斯总统普京为何下令大规模破坏前不久的美国总统大选，美国情报机构做出了明确的判断。

Mr. Putin wanted to cripple the faith Americans have in their own elections, they found, and to undermine a United States-led “liberal world order” that the Russians see as a threat to their security. As a way to achieve this goal, the assessment found, Russia worked to help Donald J. Trump win the election.

他们发现，普京想削弱美国人对自己的选举的信心，并破坏美国领导的“自由世界秩序”，俄罗斯人视这一秩序为安全威胁。评估发现，为了实现这一目标，俄罗斯努力帮助特朗普赢得大选。

Eight years later, Mr. Trump sat in the Oval Office for a blustery meeting with President Voldymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and rendered, once again, his own judgment on that period. There was no Russian sabotage, just a “phony witch hunt” of which both he and Mr. Putin were victims.

八年后，特朗普坐在椭圆形办公室与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行了一场激烈的会晤，并再次对那段时期做出了自己的判断。没有什么俄罗斯的破坏，那只是一场“虚假的政治迫害”，他和普京都是受害者。

“Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me,” he said.

“让我告诉你，普京和我一起经历了很多，”他说。

The statement was a tell. The president sees common cause with Mr. Putin, a merging of interests forged through battles against those he believes are his and Mr. Putin’s mutual adversaries — including Democratic lawmakers, European leaders and a spectral “deep state” inside the U.S. government.

这句话是一种暗示。总统认为自己和普京有共同事业，在与他心目中两人的共同对手斗争的过程中，他与普京形成了利益融合——这些对手包括民主党议员、欧洲领导人和美国政府内部一股神秘的“深层势力”。

The relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin has for years been scrutinized by American government inquiries, assessments by foreign intelligence services and news media investigations. Taken together, they have unearthed evidence to support an array of theories addressing Mr. Trump’s affinity for a Russian strongman who has spent a career trying to undermine American interests.

多年来，特朗普和普京之间的关系一直受到美国政府的调查、外国情报机构的评估和新闻媒体调查的密切关注。综合起来，他们发现的证据支持了一系列关于特朗普与一名俄罗斯铁腕人物关系密切的理论，这名铁腕人物在其职业生涯中一直试图损害美国的利益。

As yet, there is no single, tidy explanation. But based solely on Mr. Trump’s public actions during his first six weeks back in office, the simple fact is that he has made few decisions on national security or foreign policy that have not been cheered by the Kremlin, making his stance toward Mr. Putin more consequential than ever.

到目前为止，还没有一个统一、严谨的解释。但单从特朗普上任前六周的公开行动来看，一个简单的事实是，他在国家安全或外交政策方面做出的决定几乎没有哪一个不受克里姆林宫的欢迎，这使得他对普京的立场比以往任何时候都更加重要。

This is a world turned upside down for Susan Miller, the former head of counterintelligence at the C.I.A., who led the agency’s 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian election interference.

对于前中央情报局反情报部门负责人苏珊·米勒来说，世界已经天翻地覆，她领导了该机构2017年对俄罗斯干预选举的情报评估。

Ms. Miller said in an interview that she thinks Mr. Trump’s affinity for the Russian president boils down to “autocrat envy”— that he covets the power Mr. Putin has to make decisions in Russia without any constraints.

米勒在接受采访时表示，她认为特朗普对俄罗斯总统的亲近归根结底是“对专制统治者的嫉妒”——他羡慕普京在俄罗斯拥有不受任何约束地做出决定的权力。

“Trump likes Putin because Putin has control over his country,” she said. “And Trump wants control over his country.”

“特朗普喜欢普京，因为普京可以控制他的国家，”她说。“而特朗普想要控制他的国家。”

Mr. Trump has accused Mr. Zelensky of beginning the war that started with a Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a war that has seen the mass slaughter of Ukrainian civilians. He has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine that the country desperately needs to battle Russian forces.

特朗普指责泽连斯基挑起了这场以俄罗斯于2022年2月入侵乌克兰为开端的战争，这场战争导致乌克兰平民遭到大规模屠杀。他已经停止与乌克兰分享情报，而乌克兰迫切需要这些情报来对抗俄罗斯军队。

特朗普指责乌克兰总统泽连斯基挑起了这场始于2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争。

He has gutted American foreign aid programs that Mr. Putin has long detested, including pro-democracy programs in countries like Hungary that Russia is bringing closer into its sphere of influence. He has sidelined European allies, saying they are untrustworthy and suggesting they might have to fend for themselves in the future.

他破坏了普京向来厌恶的美国对外援助项目，包括在匈牙利等国实施的支持民主计划，俄罗斯正在把这些国家拉进自己的势力范围。他把欧洲盟友撇在一边，说他们不值得信任，并暗示他们未来可能不得不自力更生。

Mr. Trump has defended his actions in part by saying they are necessary steps to getting Russia to the negotiating table, casting himself as a peace broker to end the war in Ukraine. Thus far, however, he has pushed far harder on Mr. Zelensky to make concessions than he has on Mr. Putin.

特朗普为自己的部分行动进行辩护，说它们是让俄罗斯坐到谈判桌前的必要步骤，他把自己塑造成结束乌克兰战争的和平斡旋者。然而，到目前为止，他逼迫泽连斯基做出让步的力度远远大于对普京施压的力度。

How much does all this please Russian officials? Just ask them.

这一切能在多大程度上取悦俄罗斯官员？不妨直接去问他们。

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s longtime spokesman, went on state television two days after the Oval Office blowup with Mr. Zelensky and praised the Trump administration’s decisions since coming to power. The new White House agenda, he said, “largely aligns with our vision.”

泽连斯基在椭圆形办公室与总统发生争执两天后，克里姆林宫长期以来的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫在国家电视台上对特朗普政府上台以来的决定表示赞扬。他说，白宫的新议程“在很大程度上与我们的愿景一致”。

That same day, Sergey V. Lavrov, Mr. Putin’s foreign minister, presented Russians with a wholly different take on world history than the one that Kremlin officials have taught for decades. Mr. Lavrov said it was European nations, not the United States, that were responsible for so many of history’s great tragedies — citing the Crusades, the Napoleonic wars, World War I and the rise of Hitler.

就在同一天，普京的外交部长拉夫罗夫向俄罗斯人展示了一种完全不同于克里姆林宫官员几十年来传播的世界历史观点。拉夫罗夫列举了十字军东征、拿破仑战争、第一次世界大战和希特勒的崛起，他说，是欧洲国家，而不是美国，对历史上如此多的重大悲剧负有责任。

“If we look at history in retrospect,” he said, “the Americans did not play any instigating, let alone incendiary, role.”

“回顾历史，”他说，“美国人没有扮演煽动角色，更不用说挑起事端。”

Ms. Miller said there was no doubt among members of her counterintelligence team about Russia’s intentions in disrupting the 2016 election: to spread disinformation and sow chaos with the aim of undermining confidence in the democratic process.

米勒表示，她的反情报团队成员对俄罗斯扰乱2016年大选的意图毫不怀疑，他们旨在传播虚假信息，制造混乱，目的是破坏对民主进程的信心。

At the same time, she said, her agency team — which was joined by officials from the National Security Agency and the F.B.I. — was extremely careful and fiercely nonpartisan in assessing what impact the Russian interference had on Mr. Trump’s election victory.

她说，与此同时，她的部门——还有来自国家安全局和联邦调查局的官员——在评估俄罗斯干预对特朗普胜选的影响时非常谨慎，而且严格遵守无党派原则。

Nevertheless, during the first Trump administration she found herself in the cross hairs of the team of prosecutors led by John Durham, whom Attorney General William P. Barr had appointed to investigate the origins of the F.B.I.’s Russia investigation. She said that Mr. Durham and other prosecutors grilled her for more than eight hours about the intelligence assessment.

然而，在特朗普第一届政府期间，她意外成了约翰·达勒姆领导的检察官团队的目标，司法部长威廉·巴尔任命达勒姆调查联邦调查局对俄罗斯调查的起源。她说，达勒姆和其他检察官就情报评估对她进行了长达八个多小时的盘问。

在特朗普和泽连斯基在椭圆形办公室激烈的新闻发布会之后，外交部长拉夫罗夫等俄罗斯官员对特朗普政府作出了积极回应。

“They were looking for bias in our work,” Ms. Miller said. “They didn’t find any.” Mr. Durham’s final report found no fault with the 2017 intelligence assessment.

“他们在寻找我们工作中的偏见，”米勒说。“他们什么也没找到。”达勒姆的最终报告没有发现2017年的情报评估有任何问题。

Still, Mr. Trump’s anger about what he calls the “Russia hoax” has festered for years, a grievance so deep he now sees Mr. Putin as his ally in victimhood.

尽管如此，特朗普对他所谓的“俄罗斯骗局”的愤怒多年来一直在恶化，这种不满如此之深，以至于他现在把普京视为自己的受害者盟友。

Mr. Putin has spent years trying to shape Mr. Trump’s thinking on Ukraine, and there is now little daylight between both men’s public statements about the war.

普京多年来一直试图影响特朗普对乌克兰的看法，现在两人关于这场战争的公开声明几乎没有什么分歧。

The first time that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin met in person, during a July 2017 summit in Hamburg, Germany, the Russian president used much of the time disparaging Ukraine as a corrupt, fabricated country.

2017年7月，特朗普和普京在德国汉堡举行的峰会上首次会面时，俄罗斯总统用大量时间贬低乌克兰是一个腐败的、凭空捏造的国家。

He said that Russia had every right to exert influence over Ukraine. He even justified Russian military operations in the country by raising the historical example of President Theodore Roosevelt’s belief that the United States had the right to intervene in the internal affairs of Latin American countries.

他说俄罗斯完全有权对乌克兰施加影响。他甚至以西奥多·罗斯福总统认为美国有权干涉拉丁美洲国家内政的历史为例，为俄罗斯在该国的军事行动辩护。

Mr. Trump is a longtime admirer of Roosevelt.

特朗普一直都很崇拜罗斯福。

Leaving the meeting, Rex Tillerson, then the secretary of state, told anxious White House aides that Mr. Putin had done his “K.G.B. shtick,” and that Mr. Trump had not pushed back on any of the Russian president’s assertions about Ukraine.

离开会场时，时任国务卿蒂勒森告诉焦虑的白宫助手，普京完成了他的“克格勃伎俩”，特朗普没有就俄罗斯总统关于乌克兰的任何说法提出反驳。

More than two years later, the House impeached Mr. Trump because of a July 2019 phone call he had with Mr. Zelensky, during which he made continued American military support to Ukraine contingent on Mr. Zelensky’s helping dig up dirt on his political opponents.

两年多后，众议院弹劾了特朗普，原因是他在2019年7月与泽连斯基通了电话，在电话中，特朗普表示，美国对乌克兰的持续军事支持要取决于泽连斯基是否能够帮助挖掘特朗普政治对手的丑闻。

The episode further radicalized Mr. Trump’s views not only toward Ukraine but also to his perceived “deep state” enemies who testified during the impeachment proceedings.

这一事件不仅进一步激化了特朗普对乌克兰的看法，也让他对弹劾程序中作证的那些所谓“深层政府”敌人的看法变得更加激进。

Marco Rubio was incensed. Here he was in the Cabinet Room of the White House, the secretary of state, seated beside the president and listening to a litany of attacks from the richest man in the world.

马可·鲁比奥被激怒了。在白宫的内阁会议室里，这位国务卿坐在总统旁边，听着世界首富连珠炮般的攻击。

Seated diagonally opposite, across the elliptical mahogany table, Elon Musk was letting Mr. Rubio have it, accusing him of failing to slash his staff.

坐在椭圆形红木桌子斜对面的埃隆·马斯克直斥鲁比奥，说他没有裁员。

You have fired “nobody,” Mr. Musk told Mr. Rubio, then scornfully added that perhaps the only person he had fired was a staff member from Mr. Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

你没有解雇“任何人”，马斯克告诉鲁比奥，然后轻蔑地补充说，也许他解雇的唯一一个人就是马斯克的政府效率部的员工。

Mr. Rubio had been privately furious with Mr. Musk for weeks, ever since his team effectively shuttered an entire agency that was supposedly under Mr. Rubio’s control: the United States Agency for International Development. But, in the extraordinary cabinet meeting on Thursday in front of President Trump and around 20 others — details of which have not been reported before — Mr. Rubio got his grievances off his chest.

自从马斯克的团队实际上完全关闭了本应由鲁比奥控制的美国国际开发署以来，鲁比奥几周来一直私下里对马斯克极为不满。而在上周四这场不同寻常的内阁会议上，当着特朗普总统和其他大约20人——会议细节之前没有被报道过——鲁比奥发泄了心中的怨气。

Mr. Musk was not being truthful, Mr. Rubio said. What about the more than 1,500 State Department officials who took early retirement in buyouts? Didn’t they count as layoffs? He asked, sarcastically, whether Mr. Musk wanted him to rehire all those people just so he could make a show of firing them again. Then he laid out his detailed plans for reorganizing the State Department.

鲁比奥说，马斯克没有说实话。1500多名以买断方式提前退休的国务院官员算怎么回事？他们不算裁员吗？他讽刺地问，马斯克是否想让他重新雇用所有这些人，这样他就可以再次解雇他们。然后，他提出了重组国务院的详细计划。

数周来，国务卿鲁比奥私下里对马斯克极为不满。

Mr. Musk was unimpressed. He told Mr. Rubio he was “good on TV,” with the clear subtext being that he was not good for much else. Throughout all of this, the president sat back in his chair, arms folded, as if he were watching a tennis match.

马斯克不为所动。他对鲁比奥说，他“在电视上表现很好”，潜台词显然是，他在其他方面并不出色。在整个过程中，总统靠在椅子上，双臂交叉，好像在看一场网球比赛。

After the argument dragged on for an uncomfortable time, Mr. Trump finally intervened to defend Mr. Rubio as doing a “great job.” Mr. Rubio has a lot to deal with, the president said. He is very busy, he is always traveling and on TV, and he has an agency to run. So everyone just needs to work together.

在争论持续了一段令人不适的时间后，特朗普终于出面为鲁比奥辩护，说他做得“很棒”。总统说，鲁比奥有很多事情要处理。他很忙，他总是在外奔走和上电视，他还有一个部门要管理。所以每个人都需要齐心协力。

The meeting was a potential turning point after the frenetic first weeks of Mr. Trump’s second term. It yielded the first significant indication that Mr. Trump was willing to put some limits on Mr. Musk, whose efforts have become the subject of several lawsuits and prompted concerns from Republican lawmakers, some of whom have complained directly to the president.

在特朗普第二任期狂热的头几周之后，这次会议是一个潜在的转折点。这是特朗普愿意对马斯克施加一些限制的首个重要迹象。如今，马斯克的所作所为已经成为几起诉讼的主题，并引发了共和党议员的担忧，其中一些人直接向总统投诉。

From now on, he said, the secretaries would be in charge; the Musk team would only advise.

总统说，从现在起，各位部长将负责，马斯克团队只提供建议。

It is unclear what the long-term impact of the meeting will be. Mr. Musk remains Mr. Trump’s biggest political financial supporter — just this week his super PAC aired $1 million worth of ads that said, “Thank you, President Trump” — and Mr. Musk’s control of the social media website X has made administration staff members and cabinet secretaries alike fearful that he will target them in public.

目前还不清楚这次会议的长期影响是什么。马斯克仍然是特朗普最大的政治资金支持者——就在本周，他的超级政治行动委员会播放了价值100万美元的广告表示“谢谢你，特朗普总统”。同时，马斯克对社交媒体网站X的控制让政府工作人员和内阁部长都担心他会在公开场合针对自己。

Just moments before the blowup with Mr. Rubio, Mr. Musk and the transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, went back and forth about the state of the Federal Aviation Administration’s equipment for tracking airplanes and what kind of fix was needed. Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, jumped in to support Mr. Musk.

就在与鲁比奥争吵之前不久，马斯克和交通部长肖恩·达菲还就联邦航空管理局用于跟踪飞机的设备的状况、需要进行什么样的整改展开了激烈讨论。商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克跳出来支持马斯克。

Mr. Duffy said the young staff of Mr. Musk’s team was trying to lay off air traffic controllers. What am I supposed to do? Mr. Duffy said. I have multiple plane crashes to deal with now, and your people want me to fire air traffic controllers?

达菲说，马斯克团队的年轻员工正试图解雇空中交通管制员。我该怎么办？达菲说。我现在要处理多起飞机失事，而你的人却要我解雇空中交通管制员？

这次内阁会议是特朗普总统愿意对马斯克施加一些限制的第一个重要迹象。

Mr. Musk told Mr. Duffy that his assertion was a “lie.” Mr. Duffy insisted it was not; he had heard it from them directly. Mr. Musk, asking who had been fired, said: Give me their names. Tell me their names.

马斯克告诉达菲，他的说法是“谎言”。达菲坚称不是；这是他直接从人们口中听到的。马斯克问，都有谁被解雇了，他说：把他们的名字给我。告诉我他们的名字。

Mr. Duffy said there were not any names, because he had stopped them from being fired. At another point, Mr. Musk insisted that people hired under diversity, equity and inclusion programs were working in control towers. Mr. Duffy pushed back and Mr. Musk did not add details, but said during the longer back and forth that Mr. Duffy had his phone number and should call him if he had any issues to raise.

达菲说，没有名字，因为他已经阻止了他们被解雇。马斯克还坚称，在塔台工作的是一些通过多元、公平和包容项目聘用的人。达菲反驳了他，马斯克也没有补充细节，但在这场更加漫长的争吵中，他表示，达菲有他的电话号码，如果有什么问题要提，可以打给他。

The exchange ended with Mr. Trump telling Mr. Duffy that he had to hire people from M.I.T. as air traffic controllers. These air traffic controllers need to be “geniuses,” he said.

讨论的最后，特朗普告诉达菲，他必须从麻省理工学院招空管员。他说，这些空管员必须是“天才”。

The secretary of veterans affairs, Doug Collins, has been dealing with one of the most politically sensitive challenges of all the cabinet secretaries. Mr. Musk’s cuts will affect thousands of veterans — a powerful constituency and a core part of the Trump base. Mr. Collins made the point that they should not wield a blunt instrument and cleave off everyone from the V.A. They needed to be strategic about it. Mr. Trump agreed with Mr. Collins, saying they ought to retain the smart ones and get rid of the bad ones.

退伍军人事务部长道格·柯林斯一直在处理所有内阁部长中最敏感的政治挑战之一。马斯克的裁员将影响到数以万计的退伍军人——这是一个强大的选民团体，也是特朗普票仓的核心部分。柯林斯指出，他们不应该简单粗暴地把事务部的所有人砍掉，他们要有战略眼光。特朗普同意柯林斯的观点，声称他们应该保留聪明的人，淘汰不好的人。

In response to a request for comment from The New York Times, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement: “As President Trump said, this was a great and productive meeting amongst members of his team to discuss cost-cutting measures and staffing across the federal government. Everyone is working as one team to help President Trump deliver on his promise to make our government more efficient.”

在回应《纽约时报》的置评请求时，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在声明中表示：“正如特朗普总统所说，他的团队成员讨论了削减成本的措施和整个联邦政府的人员配置，这是一次重要而富有成效的会议。每个人都在作为团队，帮助特朗普总统兑现他的承诺，让我们的政府更有效率。”

Tammy Bruce, a spokeswoman for the State Department, responded, “Secretary Rubio considered the meeting an open and productive discussion with a dynamic team that is united in achieving the same goal: making America great again.”

国务院发言人塔米·布鲁斯回应说，“鲁比奥国务卿认为，这次会议是与一个充满活力的团队进行了一次公开而富有成效的讨论，这个团队团结一心，有着同一个目标：让美国再次伟大。”

弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿罗纳德·里根国家机场附近的波托马克河，一台起重机正在清理1月坠毁的美国航空公司飞机残骸。

A Department of Veterans Affairs spokesman said, “As President Trump has said, it’s important to increase efficiency and reduce bureaucracy while keeping in place the best and most productive federal employees. V.A. is working with DOGE and the rest of the administration to do just that.”

退伍军人事务部发言人说：“正如特朗普总统所说，提高效率，减少官僚主义，同时留住最优秀、最高产的联邦雇员，这一点很重要。退伍军人事务部正与政府效率部和其他政府部门合作来做到这一点。”

In a post on X on Friday, Mr. Duffy praised Mr. Trump and the work Mr. Musk’s team is doing and said it was an effective cabinet meeting. He added that “the DEI Department at the FAA was eliminated on day 2” and that Mr. Trump’s “approach of a scalpel versus a hatchet and better coordination between Secretaries and DOGE is the right approach to revolutionizing the way our government is run.”

在上周五发表的文章中，达菲赞扬了特朗普和马斯克团队正在做的工作，并称这是一次有效的内阁会议。他还说，“联邦航空局的多元、公平和包容部门在第二天就被撤了”，特朗普的“要手术刀不要斧头的做法，以及部长和效率部之间更好的协调，是彻底改变我们政府运作方式的正确思路。”

Mr. Musk, who later claimed on X that the cabinet meeting was “very productive,” seemed far less enthused inside the room. He aggressively defended himself, reminding the cabinet secretaries that he had built multiple billion-dollar companies from the ground up and knew something about hiring good people.

马斯克后来在X上声称，内阁会议“非常有成效”，但他在会议室里似乎远没有那么热情。他为自己做了激烈的辩护，提醒内阁部长们，自己从零开始建立了多家价值数千亿美元的公司，他知道如何雇佣优秀人才。

A federal judge in Missouri found the Chinese government responsible for covering up the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and hoarding protective equipment in a ruling on Friday. He entered a judgment of more than $24 billion that Missouri officials vowed to enforce by seizing Chinese assets.

周五，密苏里州一名联邦法官做出裁决，中国政府应该对掩盖新冠大流行的开始和囤积防护装备负有责任。他做出了一项超过240亿美元的判决，密苏里州官员誓言通过扣押中国资产来执行这项判决。

The lawsuit, filed by the Missouri attorney general’s office in April 2020, during the early months of the pandemic, accused the Chinese government of withholding information about the existence and spread of the virus and then of cutting off the supply of personal protective equipment, or P.P.E., from the rest of the world. Chinese officials said Friday that they did not accept the judge’s decision.

密苏里州总检察长办公室于2020年4月在大流行的最初几个月提起诉讼，指控中国政府隐瞒有关该病毒存在和传播的信息，并切断了个人防护装备对世界其他地区的出口。周五，中国官员表示，他们不接受法官的判决。

In his ruling, Judge Stephen N. Limbaugh Jr. wrote that “China was misleading the world about the dangers and scope of the Covid-19 pandemic” and had “engaged in monopolistic actions to hoard P.P.E.” Those actions, he said, hampered the early response to the pandemic in the United States and made it impossible to purchase enough equipment for medical providers responding to the virus.

法官斯蒂芬·林博在裁决中写道，“中国在新冠大流行的危险和范围方面误导了世界”，并“采取垄断行为囤积个人防护装备”，他说，这些行为阻碍了美国对大流行的早期反应，使医疗机构无法为应对该病毒采购足够设备。

Judge Limbaugh, of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, imposed the judgment against China, its governing Communist Party, local governments in China, as well as a health agency and a laboratory in the country.

林博是美国密苏里州东区地方法院法官，他对中国、执政的中国共产党、几个中国地方政府以及中国的一家卫生机构和一家实验室作出了判决。

Missouri’s attorney general, Andrew Bailey, said in a statement that the ruling held China accountable for its actions.

密苏里州总检察长安德鲁·贝利在声明中表示，该裁决要求中国对其行为负责。

“China refused to show up to court, but that doesn’t mean they get away with causing untold suffering and economic devastation,” said Mr. Bailey, a Republican. “We intend to collect every penny by seizing Chinese-owned assets, including Missouri farmland.”

“中国拒绝出庭，但这并不意味着他们造成了难以形容的痛苦和经济破坏之后可以逃脱惩罚，”共和党人贝利说。“我们打算通过没收中国人拥有的资产，包括密苏里州的农田，来收取每一分钱。”

A spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, said his government will not recognize the judgment.

中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示，中国政府不会承认这一判决。

“The so-called lawsuit has no basis in fact, law or international precedence,” he said in a statement. “China does not and will not accept it. If China’s interests are harmed, we will firmly take reciprocal countermeasures according to international law.”

“所谓的诉讼没有事实基础、没有法律依据、没有国际先例。中国现在不承认，将来也不会承认。如果中国的利益受到损害，将根据国际法坚决予以还击，”他在声明中说。

It was not immediately clear how or when Missouri officials might move to seize Chinese assets, including land, as they pledged to do. Mr. Bailey’s office said it could seek assistance from the Trump administration in identifying and taking those assets.

目前尚不清楚密苏里州官员将如何或何时按照承诺采取行动，没收包括土地在内的中国资产。贝利的办公室表示，它可能会寻求特朗普政府的协助，以确定并没收这些资产。

Judge Limbaugh, who was appointed by former President George W. Bush, initially dismissed Missouri’s lawsuit. But the case was returned to him by an appellate court, and he held a bench trial in January at the federal courthouse in Cape Girardeau, Mo. No one argued on behalf of China at the hearing.

由前总统乔治·W·布什任命的林博法官最初驳回了密苏里州的诉讼。但这个案子被上诉法院退回给了他，今年1月，他在密苏里州开普吉拉多的联邦法院进行了法官审判。在听证会上，没有人代表中国辩护。

Foreign governments can be sued in American courts, though the circumstances under which those lawsuits can proceed are sharply limited by a measure known as the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act. In his earlier dismissal ruling, Judge Limbaugh said that Missouri’s lawsuit was unable to move forward because of that act. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit said one of Missouri’s claims, about the hoarding of P.P.E., was not excluded by that act, and sent that portion of the case back to the district court.

外国政府可以在美国法院被起诉，不过诉讼的进行情况受到《外国主权豁免法》的严格限制。林博在早些时候的驳回裁决中表示，由于该法案，密苏里州的诉讼无法向前推进。美国第八巡回上诉法院表示，密苏里州关于囤积个人防护装备的诉讼并不被该法案排除在外，并将案件的部分发回地方法院。

Such cases have been tested in American courts before. In 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed a lawsuit filed by New York City against India and Mongolia to move forward, rejecting those countries’ claims of immunity under the foreign sovereign act.

此类案件以前在美国法院也有过判例。2007年，美国最高法院允许纽约市继续对印度和蒙古提起的诉讼，驳回了这些国家根据外国主权法提出的豁免要求。

Judge Limbaugh said Missouri’s lawyers showed that China knew that the virus was spreading — and that it was spreading from person to person — long before it shared that information with the world. He also said Missouri showed that China took steps to nationalize American factories in China to produce protective equipment, which limited the supply available for export and drove up prices in places like Missouri. The judge noted that Covid-19 was the third-leading cause of death in Missouri in 2020 and 2021.

林博表示，密苏里州的律师表明，中国早在与世界分享信息之前就知道病毒正在传播——并且是在人与人之间传播。他还说，密苏里州证明，中国采取了措施将在中国生产防护装备的美国工厂用作国有，这限制了可用于出口的供应，推高了密苏里州等地的装备价格。法官指出，新冠是2020年和2021年密苏里州第三大死因。

Senator Eric Schmitt, who was Missouri’s attorney general when the lawsuit was filed, celebrated the judgment on social media on Friday.

参议员埃里克·施密特周五在社交媒体上盛赞这一判决，在该诉讼提起时，他是密苏里州的总检察长。

“When I was AG in Missouri,” wrote Mr. Schmitt, a Republican, “I sued China for unleashing Covid on the world.” He added that “Missouri can now seize assets.”

共和党人施密特写道，“当我在密苏里州担任总检察长时，我起诉中国向世界释放了新冠病毒。”他还写道，“密苏里州现在可以扣押资产了。”

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, cast his country as a bulwark for peace and stability in a world thrown into chaos by the Trump administration. He warned of a return to the law of the jungle if more countries act like the United States in pursuing its own interests above all else.

中国最高外交官王毅将中国描绘为特朗普政府造成的混乱世界中一个和平与稳定的堡垒。他警告说，如果更多国家像美国一样将自身利益置于一切之上，世界将重回丛林法则。

As the Trump administration upends global trade relations and threatens to abandon alliances, China is trying to burnish its image at home and abroad and take swipes at Western dominance. “We will provide certainty to this uncertain world,” Mr. Wang told reporters in Beijing on Friday.

随着特朗普政府颠覆全球贸易关系，并威胁放弃盟友，中国正试图在国内外树立形象，并抨击西方的主导地位。“（我们）将以中国的确定性稳住不确定的世界，”王毅周五在北京对记者说。

Yet Mr. Wang’s depiction of China’s role conveniently downplayed the frictions it, too, has caused. Chinese industrial policy has flooded the world with Chinese goods and fueled massive trade imbalances. China’s air force menaces the self-governed island of Taiwan on a daily basis. Its navy has held live-fire exercises near Australia and Vietnam.

然而，王毅对中国角色的描述也刻意淡化了由其引发的摩擦。中国的产业政策让全球各地充斥着中国商品，加剧了巨大的贸易失衡。中国空军每天都在威胁自治岛屿台湾。中国海军在澳大利亚和越南附近举行了实弹演习。

On Friday, however, China pointed the finger at the United States, which has withdrawn from international groups and pacts like the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement. The Trump administration has also unsettled its allies by threatening to take Greenland and apparently taking Russia’s side in its war on Ukraine.

但在周五，中国将矛头指向了美国。美国退出了世界卫生组织和巴黎气候协定等国际组织和协议。特朗普政府还威胁要占领格陵兰岛，并在乌克兰战争中明显站在俄罗斯一边，这也让盟友们感到担忧。

“Great powers should shoulder their international obligations and fulfill their role as great powers,” Mr. Wang said. “They should not be profit-oriented, let alone bullying.”

“大国应承担起国际义务，履行好大国担当，”王毅说。“不能唯利是图，更不能恃强凌弱。”

He made no mention of China’s own muscle flexing, which has fueled tensions in the region. Chinese Coast Guard ships, for instance, enforce Beijing’s disputed claims to wide swaths of the South China Sea by sometimes ramming and swiping Philippine vessels. (Mr. Wang described China’s activity in the region as defensive and portrayed the Philippines as a Western pawn.)

他没有提及中国自己的武力炫耀，这种炫耀加剧了地区紧张局势。例如，中国海警船有时会撞击菲律宾船只，以维护北京对南中国海大片水域的主权主张。（王毅将中国在该地区的活动描述为防御性的，并将菲律宾形容为西方的棋子。）

His rhetoric, which casts China as a victim of American aggression, plays well with the domestic audience. He attributed China’s economic woes, for instance, in part to American tariffs and technology restrictions.

他将中国描绘为美国侵略行为的受害者，这种言论在国内受众中颇受欢迎。例如，他将中国经济困境部分归咎于美国的关税和技术限制。

At the same time, Mr. Wang sought to bolster confidence in China’s prospects. Beijing has tried to court foreign investment, which has declined in the face of weak growth, China’s heavy-handed response to the Covid pandemic and stricter national security laws.

与此同时，王毅还试图增强人们对中国前景的信心。北京试图吸引外资，由于经济增长乏力、中国对新冠疫情的严厉应对以及更严格的国家安全法，外国投资减少。

He vowed that the economy would rebound, saying it had shown its resilience by overcoming the 2008 global financial crisis. He said China was entering a new phase defined by “even more wonderful, high-quality development,” a reference to Beijing’s strategy of trying to power its economy with leading technology like electric vehicles.

他誓言经济会出现反弹，表示中国经济在克服2008年全球金融危机后已经展现出了韧性。他说，中国正在进入一个新阶段，即“更加精彩的高质量发展”，这指的是北京试图利用电动汽车等领先技术为经济提供动力的战略。

But the economy faces deep-rooted problems like high youth unemployment, rising government debt, and a real estate crisis that has wiped out a significant amount of household wealth and made many Chinese consumers unwilling to spend.

但中国经济面临着根深蒂固的问题，如青年高失业率、政府债务增加以及房地产危机。房地产危机已使大量家庭财富蒸发，导致许多中国消费者不愿消费。

Things could get worse if the trade spat between China and the United States continues to escalate. The Trump administration has slapped a cumulative 20 percent tariff on Chinese goods, calling it retaliation for Beijing not doing enough to stem the flow of fentanyl and migrants into the United States.

如果中美贸易争端继续升级，情况可能会变得更糟。特朗普政府对中国商品累计加征了20%的关税，称这是对北京未能采取足够措施阻止芬太尼和移民进入美国的报复。

Mr. Wang said Beijing would firmly strike back at the Trump administration if it imposed more tariffs.

王毅表示，如果特朗普政府加征更多关税，北京方面将予以坚决反击。

“If you choose to cooperate, you will achieve mutual benefit and win-win results; if you blindly exert pressure, China will definitely, resolutely counter,” Mr. Wang said.

 “如果选择合作，将实现互利共赢；如果一味施压，中国必将坚决反制，”王毅说。

Mr. Wang said the United States should “look within” for solutions to its fentanyl crisis and not blame countries like China for the problem, let alone impose tariffs on them. He also accused the Trump administration of being “two-faced” toward China — a nod to Mr. Trump’s approach of publicly offering overtures toward China’s leader, Xi Jinping, while hitting the country with trade measures.

王毅表示，美国应该从“自身”寻找解决芬太尼危机的办法，而不是将问题归咎于中国等国家，更不应对这些国家征收关税。他还指责特朗普政府用“两面人”的做法面对中国，这指的是特朗普公开向中国领导人习近平示好，同时又对中国采取贸易措施的做法。

“No country can fantasize that it can suppress and contain China while at the same time develop good relations with China,” Mr. Wang said.

“任何一个国家都不能幻想一边对华打压遏制，一边与中国发展良好关系，”王毅说。

Earlier this week, Chinese diplomats used even firmer rhetoric in responding to Mr. Trump’s tariffs. “If the U.S. has other intentions and insists on a tariff war, trade war or any other war, China will fight to the end,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday.

上周早些时候，中国外交官对特朗普的关税措施作出了更为强硬的回应。中国外交部发言人林剑周二表示：“美方如果别有所图，执意打关税战、贸易战或者别的什么战，中方将奉陪到底。”

Still, with its economy in the doldrums, China can’t afford to let the trade war spiral out of control. Even as it has pushed back, the government has urged the United States to engage with China through talks, as equals. On Thursday, China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, told reporters that he had written to the U.S. commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the U.S. trade representative, Jamieson Greer, last month to invite them to meet.

然而，由于经济低迷，中国不能承受让贸易战失控。尽管中国政府有所反击，但还是敦促美国以平等的身份与中国进行谈判。上周四，中国商务部长王文涛告诉记者，他上个月已致函美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔，邀请他们会面。

Beijing appears unsure of Mr. Trump’s intentions and is waiting to see if his tariffs are a bargaining tactic that eventually leads the Trump administration to request trade talks. Last month, Mr. Trump told reporters that a trade agreement with China was “possible.” That could include rehashing an unfulfilled $200 billion trade deal he struck with Mr. Xi during his first term.

北京似乎不确定特朗普的意图，正在等待看他的关税是否只是一种谈判策略，最终特朗普政府还是会提出贸易谈判的要求。特朗普上个月告诉记者，与中国达成贸易协议是“可能的”。这可能包括重新讨论他在第一任期内与习近平达成但未兑现的2000亿美元贸易协议。