The Trump administration has threatened to revoke the visas of many of the 277,000 or so Chinese students in the United States and to subject future applicants from China, including Hong Kong, to extra scrutiny.

特朗普政府威胁要撤销在美约27.7万名中国学生中相当一部分人的签证，并在未来对来自中国（包括香港）的申请者进行额外审查。

Cargo ships laden with goods from China stopped coming into American ports earlier this spring as President Trump escalated his trade war against Beijing.

今年春天早些时候，随着特朗普总统对中国的贸易战升级，美国港口不再涌入满载中国货物的货船。

And the Trump administration is suspending sales of some critical U.S. technologies to China, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors and certain chemicals and machinery.

特朗普政府还暂停向中国出售一些关键的美国技术，包括与喷气发动机、半导体和某些化学品和机械有关的技术。

Taken together, the actions by the Trump administration amount to an aggressive campaign to “decouple” the United States from China, as it seeks to break the close commercial ties between the world’s two largest economies and toss away what had been the anchor of the relations between the nations for decades.

综合看来，特朗普政府的这些行动相当于一场美中“脱钩”的激进运动，因为它试图打破世界上两个最大经济体之间的密切商业联系，并抛弃几十年来两国关系的支柱。

Aggressive decoupling would bolster American security, from the perspective of Mr. Trump and his aides. And it would also accelerate a trend toward each power being entrenched in its own regional sphere of influence.

在特朗普及其助手看来，积极的脱钩将加强美国的安全。它还将加速一种趋势，即每个大国都要固守在自己的地区的势力范围。

Officials in the first Trump administration spoke of the need to decouple from China, with the view that economic and educational ties across many fields equated to a national security threat. But while the efforts reframed the relationship as one of competition rather than cooperation, the volume of trade remained high, even through the pandemic.

第一届特朗普政府的官员谈到了与中国脱钩的必要性，认为在许多领域的经济和教育联系等同于对国家安全的威胁。但是，尽管政府将两国关系重新定位为竞争而非合作关系，中美贸易额却依然居高不下，甚至在大流行期间也是如此。

Now, in Trump 2.0, officials are taking a second swing at the decoupling campaign.

如今，在特朗普2.0时代，官员们正在发起第二次脱钩运动。

2019年，在日本大阪举行的20国集团峰会上，特朗普总统和中国领导人习近平会晤前摆放的椅子。在特朗普的第二个任期内，美国官员正在更加积极地寻求打破两国之间密切的商业联系。

It is already having greater consequences for the two nations and the rest of the world — millions have felt the market gyrations of recent weeks — but it is too early to gauge whether the administration will achieve any substantial results.

这已经对两国和世界其他地区产生了更大的影响——成百上千万人感受到了最近几周的市场波动——但现在判断政府是否会取得实质性成果还为时过早。

“In terms of the big-picture perspective, decoupling is going to take a lot more than trade and visa restrictions,” said Rush Doshi, the director of a new China initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Biden national security official.

“从大的层面来看，脱钩需要的远不止贸易和签证限制，”外交关系委员会新的中国项目主任、曾任拜登国家安全官员的拉什·多西说。

Even beyond the global market instability, some analysts and scholars say, there are significant potential downsides for the United States in the rapid and blunt attempts to unwind the ties. They include driving up inflation for Americans, pushing talented researchers into the arms of the Chinese government or to other nations and losing U.S. government access to Chinese citizens with deep knowledge of their country, some of whom are potential recruits for intelligence agencies.

一些分析人士和学者认为，除了全球市场不稳定之外，对美国来说，迅速而粗暴地试图解除两国关系也可能产生重大的不利影响。问题包括推高美国的通货膨胀率，迫使科研人才转投中国政府或其他国家，以及让美国政府无法接触到对中国有深入了解的中国公民，其中一些人本可以被情报机构招募。

“The part I find so hard to understand is that here’s an area where people in China really want to have access to American culture, education and to buy American products, and we’re trying to make it less attractive to them — which I find really odd,” Michael S. Roth, the president of Wesleyan University, said after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s announcement on student visas on Wednesday night.

“我觉得很难理解的部分是，在这个领域，中国人真的很想接触美国文化、接受美国教育、购买美国产品，而我们却试图降低对他们的吸引力——我觉得这很奇怪，”卫斯理安大学校长迈克尔·罗斯在国务卿鲁比奥周三晚宣布学生签证政策后说。

“If we’re competing with Chinese industry and science, it behooves us to understand the competition as well as possible and not to isolate ourselves,” Mr. Roth added.

“如果我们要和中国的工业和科学竞争，我们就应该尽可能地去理解这种竞争，而不是孤立自己，”罗斯还说。

But in the eyes of senior Trump administration officials, the benefits of that contact do not outweigh the risks of having hundreds of thousands of Chinese students in the United States, especially those working in the physical sciences or on advanced technologies.

但在特朗普政府高级官员看来，这种接触的好处并不能抵消让数十万中国学生来到美国的风险，尤其是物理科学或先进技术领域的学生。

In his brief announcement, Mr. Rubio suggested that many of the students were potential threats. The students whose visas will be revoked, he said, include those with ties to the Chinese Communist Party or who study in “critical fields.” He did not indicate how many people would be affected, or define “critical fields.” He also did not say what kinds of ties to the party would be deemed risky, or how the officials would pinpoint those ties.

在简短的声明中，鲁比奥暗示，许多学生都是潜在的威胁。他说，签证将被撤销的学生包括那些与中国共产党有联系或在“关键领域”学习的学生。他没有说明有多少人会受到影响，也没有说明“关键领域”的定义。此外，他没有说明与中共有怎样的关系会被视为有风险，更没有说明官员将如何确定这些关系。

If these moves are aggressive, as Mr. Rubio has said they will be, some of the people-to-people bonds and institutional exchanges will no doubt end — exactly the outcome that top Trump administration officials aim to achieve as part of their decoupling campaign.

如果这些举措像鲁比奥所说的那样积极，那么一些人与人之间的纽带和机构之间的交流无疑将会结束——这正是特朗普政府高官在这场脱钩运动中希望实现的结果。

John Aubrey Douglass, a senior research fellow on education policy at the University of California at Berkeley, said Mr. Trump’s “neo-nationalism is translating into a neo-academic Cold War” that includes “unnecessary attacks and limits on international students and faculty.”

加州大学伯克利分校教育政策高级研究员约翰·奥布里·道格拉斯表示，特朗普的“新民族主义正在转化为一场新学术冷战”，其中包括“对国际学生和教师发起不必要的攻击和限制”。

“Major research universities already vet and limit Chinese and mostly graduate students from participating in research in areas deemed possible national security risks, working with federal officials,” he said.

“主要的研究型大学已经在与联邦官员合作，审查并限制中国学生——主要是研究生——参与可能危及国家安全的领域的研究，”他说。

The Trump administration’s new actions will almost certainly help China keep its talent closer to home, at a time when U.S. officials are trying to impede the nation’s progress on artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies.

在美国官员试图阻碍中国在人工智能和其他先进技术方面取得进展之际，特朗普政府的新行动几乎肯定有助于中国将人才留在离本土更近的地方。

“China could redirect its students to Hong Kong, the U.K. or Singapore while promoting its own universities as global hubs,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Long term, Beijing may bolster domestic higher education and recruit U.S.-based talent to reduce reliance on American institutions.”

“中国可以把学生转到香港、英国或新加坡，同时把自己的大学打造成全球中心，”美国外交关系委员会全球卫生高级研究员黄严忠说。“从长远来看，北京可以强化国内的高等教育，招募美国人才，以减少对美国机构的依赖。”

Xi Jinping, China’s leader, said during a visit to the United States in November 2023 that China would like to welcome 50,000 American students over five years. The pandemic, surging U.S.-China tensions and Mr. Xi’s increasingly repressive authoritarian rule had been causing the number of Americans studying in China to plummet.

中国领导人习近平在2023年11月访问美国期间表示，中国希望在五年内接纳5万名美国学生。新冠大流行、中美紧张局势加剧以及习近平日益压制性的专制统治导致在中国学习的美国人急剧减少。

Last year, about 800 Americans studied in China. In 2019, before the pandemic, there were about 11,000.

去年，大约有800名美国人在中国学习。大流行之前的2019年大约有1.1万人。

习近平在2023年访问美国期间表示，中国希望在五年内接待5万名美国学生。但是，去年在中国学习的美国人数骤降至800人。照片摄于上月。

Meanwhile, a handful of American institutions, including Duke University, New York University and the Schwarzman Scholars program, continue to run campuses or classrooms in China, but their efforts become more precarious each time a new conflict arises between the United States and China.

与此同时，包括杜克大学、纽约大学和苏世民学者计划在内的少数美国机构继续在中国开设校园或课堂，但每当美中之间出现新的冲突时，它们的努力就变得更加岌岌可危。

At the moment, the greatest source of friction is the trade war. In April, Mr. Trump imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods but brought those down to a still-significant 30 percent after U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to a temporary truce this month. China lowered tariffs on U.S. goods to 10 percent from 125 percent.

目前，最大的摩擦来源是贸易战。今年4月，特朗普对中国商品征收145%的关税，但在美中官员本月同意暂时休战后，关税降至仍然很高的30%。中国将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。

On Thursday, a federal appeals court agreed to temporarily preserve many of Mr. Trump’s tariffs on China and other trading partners, a day after a panel of federal judges declared many of the tariffs to be illegal.

周四，一个联邦上诉法院同意暂时保留特朗普对中国和其他贸易伙伴征收的许多关税，此前一天，一个联邦法官合议庭宣布其中许多关税是非法的。

American consumers have benefited from decades of relatively inexpensive goods manufactured in China, where labor and factory setup costs are much lower than in the United States. But Mr. Trump and several top aides, including Mr. Rubio, say their goal is to rejuvenate manufacturing in the United States through high tariffs. There is no sign, however, that companies in the United States and other nations intend to set up new factories in large numbers here.

美国消费者几十年来一直受益于中国制造的相对便宜的商品，中国的劳动力和建厂成本比美国低得多。但特朗普和包括鲁比奥在内的几名高级助手表示，他们的目标是通过高关税重振美国的制造业。然而，没有迹象表明美国和其他国家的公司打算在美国大量建立新工厂。

Mr. Doshi said that to effectively decouple certain industries, the Trump administration should be working with allies to move manufacturing sites and shift global supply chains.

多西表示，为了有效地使某些行业脱钩，特朗普政府应该与盟友合作，转移制造基地，转移全球供应链。

“On that front, it looks like they’re not moving as quickly as we would have hoped,” he said.

他说：“在这方面，他们的行动似乎没有我们希望的那么快。”

He added that it was through export controls of critical technology, machinery and natural resources that actual decoupling might take place.

他还说，只有通过对关键技术、机械和自然资源的出口管制，才能实现真正的脱钩。

During the Biden administration, Mr. Doshi was one of the architects of a policy aimed at limiting exports of advanced semiconductor chips and certain chip-making technology to China to hobble its advances in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other such areas.

在拜登执政期间，多西参与制定了一项政策，旨在限制向中国出口先进的半导体芯片和某些芯片制造技术，以阻碍中国在人工智能、量子计算等领域的进步。

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called this type of surgical policy “de-risking,” and Biden aides adopted the term.

欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩把这种外科手术式的政策称为“去风险”，拜登的助手们也采用了这个说法。

China is showing it is ready to play that game. It struck a blow against the United States in April with its decision to ban exports of critical minerals and magnets in reaction to Mr. Trump’s escalation of tariffs. American industries rely on those minerals and magnets to produce a wide range of items, including aircraft, electric vehicles and weapons.

中国表明它已经为这场游戏做好准备。今年4月，作为对特朗普提高关税的回应，中国决定禁止出口关键矿产和磁铁，对美国造成了打击。美国工业依赖这些矿物和磁铁来生产各种各样的产品，包括飞机、电动汽车和武器。

On Thursday, the Trump administration announced new export controls, including limits on the sale of chip design software.

周四，特朗普政府宣布了新的出口管制措施，包括限制芯片设计软件的销售。

The escalations by each side amount to supply chain warfare.

双方的升级已经演变为一场供应链战争。

But ultimately, the greatest consequence of the efforts at decoupling could be the loss of mutual understanding that is an inevitable result of severed ties — and that, at times in history, has been the prelude to armed conflict.

但最终，努力脱钩的最严重后果可能是相互理解的缺失，这是断绝关系不可避免的结果——而在历史上，这有时是武装冲突的前奏。

“There are certainly legitimate security concerns in certain fields of research,” said Mr. Roth, the president of Wesleyan University. “But the ability to talk with Chinese students about American culture, American freedom, American research, and to hear their perspectives on what we do and what they do in their country has enriched the lives of many, many American students over a long period of time now, and many Chinese students.”

“在某些研究领域，的确存在合理的安全关切，”卫斯理安大学校长罗斯说。“但在很长一段时间里，能与中国学生谈美国的文化、美国的自由和美国的科研，以及听取他们对美国和自己国家的看法，丰富了许多美国学生和中国学生的人生。”

After stepping back this month from an escalating and dangerous war of tariffs, the United States and China are now threatening to undermine their uneasy truce.

中美两国本月暂时叫停了不断升级的关税战，但如今双方又有可能打破这一脆弱的休战状态。

On May 12, the countries announced after weekend meetings in Geneva that they would suspend most of their recently imposed tariffs. Since then, however, both governments have shown that they are still prepared to wield controls over critical exports as weapons against one another, with moves that are potentially even more damaging to trade and global supply chains.

5月12日，两国在日内瓦举行周末会谈后宣布，将暂停大部分近期加征的关税。但此后，双方政府的一系列举措表明，它们仍然准备将关键产品的出口管制作为相互攻击的武器，这些举措可能对贸易和全球供应链造成更严重的破坏。

China has restricted its exports of rare earth magnets, which are crucial for cars, semiconductors, aircraft and many other applications. Close to 90 percent of the world’s rare earth metals, including magnets, are produced in China.

中国已限制稀土磁铁的出口，这种材料对汽车、半导体、飞机等众多领域至关重要。全球近90%的稀土金属（包括磁铁）产自中国。

And the United States on May 13 banned the latest semiconductors from Huawei, a Chinese electronics giant. Then on Wednesday, President Trump suspended the shipment of American semiconductors and some aerospace equipment needed for China’s commercial aircraft, the C919, a signature project in China’s push toward economic self-reliance.

美国则于5月13日宣布针对中国电子巨头华为最新款半导体产品的禁令。随后周三，特朗普总统又下令暂停向中国商用飞机C919供应所需的美制半导体及部分航空设备——C919是中国推动经济自主的标志性项目。

The increasing use of export controls by both countries amounts to supply chain warfare, interrupting the flow of key components that the other country must have to operate huge industries that employ large numbers of workers.

两国对出口管制手段的使用越来越多，已演变为供应链战争，切断了对方涉及大量就业的庞大产业运行所需关键部件的流通。

Last week, Ford Motor temporarily closed a factory in Chicago that makes Ford Explorer sport utility vehicles after one of its suppliers ran out of the magnets. In most new cars, the magnets are used in dozens of electric motors that operate brake and steering systems, fuel injectors and even power seats.

上周，由于一家供应商的稀土磁铁库存耗尽，福特汽车临时关闭了位于芝加哥的一家生产探险者SUV的工厂。在多数新车中，磁铁会用于数十个电机，驱动刹车系统、转向装置、燃油喷射器，甚至电动座椅。

中国赣州的一家稀土磁体工厂。

On Monday, China granted some export licenses for rare earth magnets to be shipped to the United States and Europe, according to two industry executives who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. But many more factories in both regions will have to close in the coming days and weeks if China does not resume full exports of rare earth metals, corporate executives and business leaders said.

据两名因话题敏感而要求匿名的行业高管透露，本周一，中国向部分对欧美出口稀土磁铁的企业发放了许可证。但企业高管和商界领袖警告，若中国不全面恢复稀土金属出口，未来数周欧美将有更多工厂被迫关闭。

“Hundreds of E.U. companies are impacted, and we expect that this may lead to production stoppages already this week for some companies,” said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.

中国欧盟商会主席彦辞表示：“数百家欧盟企业受到影响，我们预计部分企业本周就可能停产。”

American companies are feeling the effect even more. Several companies in Europe, including Volkswagen, were granted permission by Beijing to continue procuring rare earth magnets soon after China began enforcing export controls on them in April. American companies have been juggling factory schedules, reassigning their dwindling magnet supplies to continue making their most profitable products.

美国企业受到的影响更为显著。自4月中国实施稀土磁铁出口管制以来，包括大众汽车在内的多家欧洲企业迅速获得采购许可，而美国企业则不得不调整生产计划，将日益减少的磁铁库存优先用于利润最高的产品。

A Ford spokesman confirmed that the Explorer factory had been closed last week because of a disruption in rare earth magnet supplies, but said that it had reopened this week. Ford had been planning to not run the factory for a week anyway in the coming months, and shifted that down time to last week when the magnet supply ran short, he said.

福特发言人证实，生产探险者的工厂上周因稀土磁铁断供而停产，但本周已恢复运转。他的解释是福特原本就计划在未来几个月内停产一周，因此将停机时间提前至磁铁短缺的上周。

The agreement reached in Geneva by U.S. and Chinese officials to de-escalate their confrontation over tariffs has been cheered by investors. The two sides said they would take a 90-day pause on tariffs and set up working groups of top officials to try to reach agreements on trade.

中美官员在日内瓦达成的缓和关税对抗的协议曾令市场为之振奋。双方同意设置90天的关税休战期，并组建高级别工作组推进贸易谈判。

That made the timing of the U.S. Commerce Department’s decision a day later to ban Americans from using or financing Huawei artificial intelligence chips noteworthy. The department contended that the A.I. chips were based on a prohibited export of American technology, which Huawei has denied.

正因为如此，当美国商务部在协议达成的次日宣布禁止美国人使用或资助华为人工智能芯片的决定，这一时机格外引人注目。商务部称，这些人工智能芯片是基于违规获取的美国技术，而华为对此予以否认。

The restrictions were the latest in a long series of American blows aimed at Huawei, which is one of China’s best-known success stories. Its hundreds of thousands of workers produce everything from cellphone base stations to autonomous driving systems for cars.

这一限制措施是美国针对华为一连串打击中的最新一次。华为是中国最具代表性的成功企业之一，拥有数十万员工，产品涵盖从手机基站到汽车自动驾驶系统等多个领域。

Chinese officials have reacted with growing anger at the U.S. use of export controls.

中国政府对美方滥用出口管制的愤怒持续升级。

“China once again urges the U.S. to immediately correct its wrong practices, stop discriminatory restrictive measures against China, and jointly maintain the consensus reached at the Geneva high-level talks,” He Yongqian, the Ministry of Commerce spokeswoman, said at a news briefing on Thursday.

中国商务部新闻发言人何咏前周四在新闻发布会上表示：“中方再次敦促美方，立即纠正错误做法，停止对华歧视性限制措施，共同维护日内瓦高层会谈共识。”

American restrictions on sales to COMAC, a state-owned enterprise, represent a setback to the Chinese government’s long-term project to shed its dependence on Boeing and Airbus. The C919 aircraft is heavily dependent on American and European components, with the company’s miles-long complex of hangars and design labs in Shanghai mainly installing components from foreign companies in Chinese-built air frames.

美国对国有企业中国商飞的销售限制，意味着中国政府摆脱波音和空客依赖的长期目标遇挫。C919飞机严重依赖欧美零部件，其位于上海的庞大机库和设计实验室网络，主要负责将外国企业生产的零部件安装到国产机身里。

COMAC did not respond to a phone call and fax for comment.

中国商飞未对请求置评的电话和传真作出回应。

工人正在组装C919客机的发动机部件，2018年摄于中国沈阳。

In a reply to questions early Thursday, Kush Desai, a White House spokesman said: “The Geneva agreement was a major first step towards securing a final, comprehensive trade deal with China. Discussions continue, and the administration is monitoring compliance with the agreement.”

白宫发言人库什·德赛于周四早间回应提问时表示：“日内瓦协议是达成最终全面对华贸易协定的重要第一步。磋商仍在继续，政府正在跟进协议履行情况。”

The United States has been gradually tightening export controls on semiconductors for a decade, contending that China has used American computer chip technology to improve a wide range of military hardware. Chinese government officials and industry executives have denied this, and contend that the United States is trying instead to limit China’s economic development.

十年来，美国逐步收紧半导体出口管制，声称中国利用美国芯片技术升级各类军事装备。中国政府和企业高管对此予以否认，反指美国实为企图遏制中国的经济发展。

Two days after Mr. Trump imposed steep tariffs on April 2 on imports from China and many other countries, China imposed its own export controls on some kinds of rare earths and heat-resistant magnets made from them.

特朗普于4月2日对中国及多国商品加征高额关税后仅两天，中国就对部分稀土及相关耐热磁铁实施了出口管制。

The Geneva trade agreement had also called for China to “adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.”

日内瓦贸易协议还要求中国“采取一切必要行政措施，暂停或取消自2025年4月2日起对美实施的非关税反制措施”。

But China’s Commerce Ministry has contended that rare earths have military applications, and it has avoided describing its export controls as a trade countermeasure. Although most rare earth magnets are used in civilian industries, they are also essential for electric motors in advanced fighter jets and the guidance systems of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

但中国商务部坚称稀土具有军事用途，拒绝将出口管制定性为贸易反制。尽管大多数稀土磁铁用于民用领域，但它们在先进战斗机的电机和洲际弹道导弹制导系统中同样不可或缺。

“It is a common international practice to impose export controls on items with obvious dual-use military and civilian attributes,” Ms. He said on Thursday.

何咏前在周四表示，“对具有明显军民两用属性的物项，实施出口管制是国际通行做法。”

Experts in China have begun defending export controls on rare earth magnets as appropriate while the United States maintains export controls on semiconductors.

中国专家已开始为稀土磁铁出口管制辩护，指出美国持续实施半导体管制在前，中国举措属合理应对。

“China sees export controls on rare earths as a counterstrike to U.S. export controls on semiconductors,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.

上海高级金融学院副院长朱宁指出：“中国将稀土出口管制视为对美国半导体管制的反制。”

Yet if China maintains export controls on rare earths, many multinational companies may conclude that their supply chains are too reliant on China, Mr. Eskelund said. “The risk of production stoppages due to export controls will only increase calls in Europe for de-risking from China.”

然而中国欧盟商会主席彦辞表示，若中国持续实施稀土出口管制，或将促使更多跨国企业重新评估对中国供应链的依赖，“出口管制导致的生产中断风险，只会加剧欧洲推进去中国风险的呼声。"

The question now is how much longer both sides maintain their export controls.

当前的关键问题是，双方的出口管制措施还将持续多久。

“It would be unfortunate if one or both sides overestimates its own leverage and feels like it needs to prove that to the other side,” said Chris Adams, a former Treasury official who is now a partner at the Covington and Burling law firm.

曾任美国财政部官员、现为科文顿律师事务所合伙人的克里斯·亚当斯指出：“若一方或双方高估自身筹码，并试图向对方证明这一点，都将导致双输局面。”

A federal appeals court on Thursday temporarily agreed to preserve many of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on China and other U.S. trading partners. The move paused an earlier decision by a separate court that would have forced the White House to wind down duties deemed to be illegal.

周四，一家联邦上诉法院暂时同意保留特朗普总统对中国和其他美国贸易伙伴征收的大量关税。这一裁决暂停了另一家法院此前作出的决定，该决定原本将迫使白宫逐步取消被认定为非法的关税措施。

The new order, by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, granted the pause on an administrative basis. That decision bought time for the panel’s judges to consider the government’s ask for a longer delay, as Mr. Trump pursues a ruling that would safeguard one of the most potent tools in his global trade war.

美国联邦巡回上诉法院的新裁决以行政程序为由批准暂缓执行。这一决定为合议庭的法官们争取了时间，以考虑政府提出的更长时间延迟的要求，特朗普希望得到一项裁决，保护他在全球贸易战中最有力的工具之一。

Since taking office, Mr. Trump has relied on a federal emergency powers law as a form of political leverage, hoping to use sky-high duties — or the mere threat of them — to force other governments to make trade concessions.

自上任以来，特朗普一直依靠联邦紧急权力法作为一种政治杠杆，试图通过极高的关税——或者仅仅是威胁征收关税——迫使他国政府做出贸易让步。

On Wednesday, the U.S. Court of International Trade dealt an early blow to that strategy. The bipartisan panel of judges, one of whom had been appointed by Mr. Trump, ruled that the law did not grant the president “unbounded authority” to impose tariffs on nearly every country, as Mr. Trump had sought. As a result, the president’s tariffs were declared illegal, and the court ordered a halt to their collection within the next 10 days.

周三，美国国际贸易法院对这一策略进行了初步打击。这个由两党法官组成的合议庭——其中一人由特朗普任命——裁定，该法并未像特朗普所寻求的那样赋予总统对几乎所有国家征收关税的“无限权力”。法院因此宣布总统的关税政策非法，法院下令在未来10天内停止征收。

The administration quickly asked the trade court to pause any enforcement of its order as it embarked on an appeal at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, where it also sought emergency relief.

特朗普政府随即要求贸易法院暂停执行其命令，同时向美国联邦巡回上诉法院提起上诉，并寻求紧急救济。

In a filing submitted Thursday, the Justice Department said the new order invalidating its claims of sweeping trade powers was “rife with legal error.” The government warned it would hamstring Mr. Trump’s efforts “to eliminate our exploding trade deficit and reorient the global economy on an equal footing.”

在周四提交的文件中，美国司法部表示，新的裁决——即否定政府广泛贸易权力主张的裁决——“充满法律错误”。政府警告，这将阻碍特朗普“消除我们不断增长的贸易逆差，并使全球经济重新回到公平竞争基础上”的努力。

The appeals court ultimately intervened, and while it did not rule directly on the government’s request or the merits of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, the panel still temporarily spared the administration from having to halt the levies it has used as political leverage in dozens of trade negotiations.

随后，上诉法院介入此案，虽然它没有直接就政府的请求或特朗普关税的是非曲直作出裁决，但该小组仍然暂时让政府不必停止在数十次贸易谈判中用作政治筹码的关税。

In effect, it means that Mr. Trump can, for now, maintain many of the tariffs he has imposed on China, Canada and Mexico and preserve the threat of “reciprocal” rates, which he announced on most nations and then suspended in early April. But it is not the final word in the legal saga, which is expected to land at the Supreme Court.

实际上，这意味着特朗普目前可以维持他对中国、加拿大和墨西哥征收的许多关税，并保留“对等”关税的威胁，他曾对大多数国家宣布实施“对等”关税，然后在4月初暂停。但这并不是这场法律诉讼的最终结果，预计它将提交到最高法院。

“The Supreme Court must put an end to this for the sake of our Constitution and our country,” said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, who opened her Thursday briefing by attacking judges for having “brazenly abused their judicial power.”

“为了我们的宪法和我们的国家，最高法院必须制止这种情况，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特说。她在周四的新闻发布会上，开场就抨击法官“肆无忌惮地滥用司法权”。

Just before she spoke, a federal judge in a separate case ordered another, temporary halt to many of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, ruling in favor of an educational toy company in Illinois, whose lawyers told the court it was harmed by Mr. Trump’s actions.

就在她发言之前，在另一起案件中，一名联邦法官再次下令暂时停止特朗普的多项关税，该判决支持伊利诺伊州的一家教育玩具公司胜诉，公司的律师告诉法院，特朗普的举措损害了该公司的利益。

Rudolph Contreras, the district judge presiding in the case, concluded that the economic powers law “is not a law providing for tariffs,” though he stayed the start of his preliminary injunction for the next 14 days. The Trump administration later filed a notice that it plans to appeal that ruling as well.

主持该案的联邦地区法官鲁道夫·孔特雷拉斯作出裁定，经济权力法“不是规定关税的法律”，但将初步禁令的生效时间推迟了14天。特朗普政府后来提交了一份通知，表示计划对这一裁决提出上诉。

The string of court decisions still reinforced a palpable sense of worry across the administration, as some of Mr. Trump’s top advisers had previously told judges hearing the cases that an adverse ruling could hamstring their negotiations. Top White House aides said in April that they planned to reach 90 deals in 90 days, with a deadline of mid-July, and the administration appears far from reaching its goal.

法院的一系列裁决还是加剧了政府内部明显的担忧情绪，因为特朗普的一些高级顾问此前曾告诉审理这些案件的法官，一项不利的裁决可能会阻碍他们的谈判。白宫高级助手在4月份表示，他们计划在90天内达成90项协议，最后期限是7月中旬，而政府似乎远未达到目标。

“If this court limits that authority, foreign counterparts will have reduced incentives to reach meaningful agreements — resulting in the status quo that led to the national emergency,” Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, said in a declaration filed with the trade court last week.

商务部长卢特尼克在上周提交给贸易法院的一份声明中表示：“如果该法院限制这一权力，外国谈判方达成实质性协议的动力将会减弱——最终导致引发国家紧急状态的现状持续。”

On Thursday morning, Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, downplayed the consequences of the court ruling, casting it as one of a few “little hiccups here and there.” He said that the president had other legal tools to impose tariffs outside the economic emergency law, though he signaled that the administration was “not planning to pursue those right now.”

周四上午，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特淡化了法院裁决的影响，称其为“零星的小插曲”之一。他说，除了《经济紧急状态法》，总统还有其他征收关税的法律工具，不过他表示，政府“目前不打算启用这些工具”。

“It’s certainly not going to affect the negotiations. Because, in the end, people know President Trump is 100 percent serious, and they also have seen President Trump always wins,” he said.

他说，“这当然不会影响谈判。因为，最终，人们知道特朗普总统是百分之百认真的，他们也看到特朗普总统总是笑到最后的安个人。”

On Wall Street, investors initially reacted warmly to the news, sending markets higher before they fell again amid weeks of whiplash over the president’s aggressive use of tariffs. A recovery early in the afternoon left the S&P 500 up 0.4 percent by the end of the day.

在华尔街，投资者最初对这一消息反应积极，推动市场走高，但由于几周来总统强硬关税政策引发的持续震荡影响，市场再次下跌。午后稍早的反弹令标准普尔500指数收涨0.4%。

None of the lawsuits that have been decided against the president implicate Mr. Trump’s other tariffs, which are issued under separate legal authorities. They include his levies on steel, aluminum and cars, as well as other tariffs that the president has threatened on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and other critical products.

到目前为止，已经裁决的对总统不利的诉讼都没有涉及特朗普政府依据其他法律授权实施的关税。其中包括他对钢铝和汽车征收的关税，以及总统威胁要对药品、半导体和其他关键产品征收的关税。

Taken together, the nation’s effective tariff rate would fall to 7 percent from 18 percent, if Mr. Trump cannot reinstate his steepest duties, according to Ernie Tedeschi, the director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale. That would still be the highest tariff rate since 1969.

耶鲁大学预算实验室经济学主任厄尼·特德斯基表示，如果特朗普不能恢复他最严厉的关税，那么美国的有效关税将从18%降至7%。这仍将是1969年以来最高的关税税率。

While Mr. Tedeschi described it as a “major dial down” on trade, he said the remaining tariffs could still shrink the rate of the nation’s economic growth and raise prices for consumers.

虽然特德斯基称这是贸易的“重大回落”，但他表示，剩余的关税仍可能拖累美国的经济增长速度，并推高消费者价格。

“That’s still a substantial impact,” he said.

“这仍然是相当大的影响，”他说。

In the hours after the Trump administration announced that it would begin “aggressively” revoking the visas of Chinese students, the line to apply for new visas at the United States Embassy in Beijing still stretched down the block on Thursday.

在特朗普政府宣布将“积极寻求”撤销中国学生签证数小时后，周四在北京的美国大使馆外，申请新签证的队伍仍然排得很长。

But for many of the hopefuls — including some who walked out of the embassy with their visa applications approved — any celebration was laced with a mix of anxiety and helplessness.

但对许多满怀希望的申请者——包括一些走出大使馆成功获签的申请者而言，任何庆祝都夹杂着焦虑和无助。

“What now? Something new every day?” said Li Kunze, 18, who had just successfully applied for a visa to study as an undergraduate. He had not heard the news until he left the embassy. “I don’t even know if they can give me this visa that I just got.”

“下一步怎么办？每天都有新情况？”现年18岁的李昆泽（音）说，他申请的留美读本科的学生签证刚刚获批。他离开大使馆才听到这个消息。“我甚至不知道他们是否能把我刚拿到的签证发给我。”

He sighed. Since it was too late to apply elsewhere for his undergraduate years, “I can only brace myself,” said Mr. Li, who plans to study applied mathematics. But, “in the future, if I can avoid going to the United States to study, I will. They make people too scared.”

他叹了口气。因为现在申请去其他国家读本科为时已晚，“我只能做好准备，”打算攻读应用数学的李昆泽说。但是，“未来能不去美国留学就尽量不去。他们也太吓人了。”

The scene outside the embassy captured the complicated feelings many Chinese students have toward studying in the United States. Hundreds of thousands still go each year, lured by the promise of a world-class education. Some also have deep admiration for America’s professed values of openness and diversity.

大使馆外的这个场景捕获到了许多中国学生对赴美留学的复杂感情。每年仍有数十万中国学生去美国读书，吸引他们的是世界一流教育的诱惑。有些人也深深向往美国宣称的开放和多元价值观。

But they must reckon with the fact — made clearer by the Trump administration every day — that many in the United States may not share that admiration.

但他们必须考虑一个特朗普政府每天都在明确的事实，那就是许多在美国的人也许并不认同那种钦佩。

Even before the announcement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the United States would begin revoking student visas, Chinese students and their families were uncertain about their prospects for studying in America. Two days earlier, Mr. Rubio had ordered a pause on new interviews for student and exchange visas.

甚至在美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥宣布美国将开始撤销学生签证之前，中国留学生和他们的家人对赴美学习的前景感到不确定。两天前，鲁比奥已下令暂停新的学生和交流签证面签预约。

哥伦比亚大学上周的毕业典礼。目前有数十万中国学生在美国读书。

Chinese students have been singled out before. In 2020, during his first term, President Trump issued a proclamation banning students from certain Chinese universities from graduate study in the United States, alleging that those universities had ties to China’s military. The parameters of that proclamation, which is still in effect, were vague, but it has been used mostly to deny visas to people in fields such as the physical sciences, engineering and computer science, according to researchers.

中国留学生以前也曾被当作针对性目标。2020年，在特朗普的首个任期内，他曾发公告禁止从某些中国大学毕业的学生来美国攻读研究生学位，称这些大学与中国军方有联系。虽然该范围界定模糊的公告目前仍有效，但据研究人员说，该公告主要是用于拒发读物理类科学、工程学、计算机科学等学科的学生签证。

But the effect of the earlier measure was relatively limited, resulting in the revocations or denials of about 3,000 visas between 2020 and 2021, according to U.S. government data.

但以前这个措施的影响有限，据美国政府的数据，从2020年至2021年间，这仅导致约3000份签证被撤销或拒签。

It is unclear what the scope of the new revocations will be, but they are likely to be much more far-reaching. Mr. Rubio’s order said only that they would include “those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party” or “studying in critical fields.”

目前尚不清楚新规波及的范围，但其影响可能更为深远。鲁比奥的命令只是说，将被撤销的签证是那些发给“与中国共产党有联系”或“在关键领域学习”的人。

As Chinese students were digesting the announcement, the response from Chinese officials was relatively muted.

在中国学生还在消化这个公告的同时，中国官员们的反应相对克制。

Asked at a regularly scheduled news conference on Thursday about the move, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry said that the United States was “using ideology and national security as an excuse” to harm Chinese students.

中国外交部发言人在周四的例行记者会上被问及对此事的看法时说，美国“以意识形态和国家安全为借口，无理取消中国留学生签证，严重损害中国留学生的合法权益”。

“This politically discriminatory practice by the U.S. side exposes the lie of the so-called ‘freedom and openness’ that the U.S. has always advertised,” the spokeswoman, Mao Ning said, adding that China had communicated its displeasure to the Americans.

发言人毛宁说，“美方这一政治性、歧视性做法，戳穿了美国一贯标榜的所谓自由开放谎言”，还说，中国已向美国表达了不满。

In other disputes with the United States, the Chinese government has often been quick to retaliate — imposing reciprocal tariffs on the United States, for example, or expelling American journalists after Mr. Trump ejected Chinese ones during his first term.

在与美国的其他争端中，中国政府通常很快采取报复做法，例如，对美国征收对等关税，或在特朗普上个任期里驱逐了中国记者后，也驱逐了美国记者。

But on the question of international students, China has little leverage. In 2024, there were only about 800 American students in China, a number that reflects many Americans’ lingering fears of visiting China, especially after its three years of lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic. (In 2019, there were around 11,000 American students.)

但在留学生问题上，中国几乎没有任何筹码。2024年在中国读书的美国学生人数只有800人左右，这一数字反映出许多美国人对访问中国的持续担忧，尤其是中国在新冠病毒大流行期间实行了三年封控措施后。（2019年在中国读书的美国学生约为1.1万人。）

杜克大学和武汉大学在中国的联合办学项目——昆山杜克大学。2024年在中国读书的美国学生人数仅为800名左右。

Beijing would probably be reluctant to use those remaining students as bargaining chips, said Denis Simon, the former executive vice chancellor of Duke Kunshan University, a partnership between Duke University and Wuhan University. China has made clear that it wants to recruit more American students to burnish its international image; China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has said that he wants 50,000 young Americans to study in China in the coming years.

中国政府可能不情愿将这些仍在中国的学生作为谈判筹码，曾任昆山杜克大学常务副校长的丹尼斯·西蒙说道，该校由杜克大学与武汉大学联合办学。中国已明确表示希望更多的美国学生来华读书，以提升自己的国际形象；中国领导人习近平表示，中国“未来5年愿邀请5万名美国青少年来华交流学习”。

Instead, Mr. Simon said, China could retaliate in unrelated ways, such as reducing cooperation with the United States on controlling the flow of fentanyl, or withholding rare earths exports.

西蒙说，中国可能会在其他无关领域进行报复，例如减少与美国在芬太尼控制方面的合作，或停止出口稀土产品。

Or perhaps, Chinese officials might see the Trump administration’s measures as so self-defeating that they feel little need to respond, said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

美国外交关系委员会高级研究员黄严忠说，中国官员也可能认为特朗普政府的措施如此之损人不利己，以至于他们觉得没必要做出回应，

Revocations would be likely to make more Chinese students choose other countries, such as Singapore or the United Kingdom, or to stay at home to study.

撤销签证的做法可能会让更多的中国学生选择去其他国家，例如新加坡或英国，或留在国内念书。

“Even if China doesn’t do anything, it would make their image, their reputation, their soft-power initiatives, more appealing,” Mr. Huang said.

“即使中国不采取任何行动，这也会让他们的形象、他们的声誉和软实力更具吸引力，”黄严忠说。

Until the 2023-24 school year, Chinese students were by far the most populous group of international students in the United States, contributing billions of dollars each year to the American economy and solidifying the country’s reputation as a magnet for global talent. Many of those students, especially at the graduate level, are in STEM fields.

截至2023-24学年，中国留学生一直是美国大学里最大的国际学生群体，每年为美国经济贡献数十亿美元，巩固了美国吸引全球人才的声誉。其中许多学生，尤其是研究生，集中在STEM专业。

美国大使馆2023年在北京组织的大学招生会。

Though the number of Chinese students has begun to decline in recent years, amid heightened U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, interest has remained strong. There were around 277,000 Chinese international students in the United States in the 2023-24 term, according to government data. In fact, applications from China for undergraduate study grew 6 percent this year, according to the Common App.

尽管近年来，由于美中地缘政治紧张局势加剧，中国留美学生的人数有所下降，但中国学生对去美国留学的兴趣依然浓厚。据政府数据，2023-24学年在美国读书的中国留学生约为27.7万名。事实上，据通用申请系统(Common App)的数据，美国大学今年收到的来自中国的读本科申请增长了6%。

“For STEM, you should definitely go to the United States, because STEM is the most developed there,” said a woman at the embassy who gave only her surname, Fan. She said she had just been approved for a visa to study computer engineering at a master’s program in Seattle.

“如果想读STEM专业的话，绝对应该去美国，因为美国的STEM专业最发达，”美国大使馆外一名只透露自己姓范的女士说。她说她的签证申请刚刚获批，将去西雅图攻读计算机工程硕士学位。

Ms. Fan said she was not worried about the Trump administration’s various assaults on American universities, and on Chinese and other international students. She pointed to the long line of other visa applicants as proof that others were still hopeful, too. “I think Trump is just a lot of noise, but not much action,” she said.

范女士说，她并不担心特朗普政府对美国高校以及中国留学生和其他国家留学生的各种打压。她指着排长队的其他签证申请者，认为这正说明大家依然抱有希望。“我认为特朗普只是空谈，没有太多的行动，”她说。

Others were less optimistic. Jason Wei had just left the embassy without being approved to return to his master’s program in electrical engineering in New York, where he still has one semester left. The embassy officer had asked him to provide more information, including his previous passport, he said.

其他人就没有这么乐观了。杰森·魏（音）刚从大使馆出来，他申请回纽约继续攻读电气工程硕士学位的签证没有获得批准，他还有最后一个学期的课要上。他说，大使馆官员要求他提供更多信息，包括他以前的护照。

Mr. Wei said he had expected the delay, as there had been a similar one when he first applied for the visa a year earlier. (He had to reapply now because he had returned to China for a summer internship.) He suspected it was related to his field of study.

魏先生说，他已预料到签证审批过程会拖延，因为一年前他第一次申请签证时也遇到过类似的情况。（因为暑假期间回中国参加一个实习项目，他现在不得不重新申请签证。）他怀疑这与他的专业有关。

“It’s up to fate,” he said. “I can’t do anything about it.”

“只能听天由命了，”他说，“我没有办法。”

Nvidia’s business prospects have been whipsawed by the U.S. government lately. Last month, the government blocked the sale of artificial intelligence chips to China. Weeks later, it approved the sale of similar chips to the Middle East.

美国政府摇摆不定的政策近期令英伟达的业务前景深受影响。上个月，政府禁止其向中国出售人工智能芯片。几周后，政府又批准向中东出售类似的芯片。

Amid the turmoil, Nvidia still maintained its breakneck growth as the leading provider of the computer chips used for building artificial intelligence.

面对这样的动荡，英伟达作为首屈一指的人工智能芯片供应商仍然保持着高速增长。

Nvidia said on Wednesday that sales in its most recent quarter rose 69 percent from a year earlier to $44.1 billion. Its net income rose 26 percent to $18.78 billion. The company exceeded Wall Street’s expectations for sales of $43.28 billion, but fell short of predictions for a profit of $19.49 billion.

周三，该公司称最近一个季度的销售额同比增长69%，达到441亿美元。净利润增长26%，达到187.8亿美元。公司的销售额超过了华尔街预期的432.8亿美元，但没有达到194.9亿美元的利润预期。

Nvidia’s revenue and profit rose even though, it said on Wednesday, the Trump administration’s restrictions on chips to China will cost it $4.5 billion, a billion dollars less than it estimated in mid-April. The restrictions have pushed Nvidia out of the market for A.I. chips in China, the world’s largest buyer of semiconductors, which are used to power smartphones, cars and other electronics.

英伟达周三表示，特朗普政府对中国芯片的限制令其损失45亿美元，比4月中旬的估计少10亿美元，但收入和利润仍在增长。特朗普政府的限制将英伟达挤出了中国的人工智能芯片市场。中国是世界上最大的半导体进口国，这些芯片用于为智能手机、汽车和其他电子产品提供动力。

Nvidia also projected that revenue in the current quarter would rise 50 percent from a year ago to $45 billion, as it expands sales of its newest A.I. chip, Blackwell. The sales forecast is in line with Wall Street’s prediction of $45.75 billion, suggesting that the tech industry’s embrace of artificial intelligence is in its early stages, with ample room to run.

英伟达还预计，随着其最新的人工智能芯片Blackwell的销售扩大，本季度的收入将比去年同期增长50%，达到450亿美元。这一销售额预测与华尔街预测的457.5亿美元相符，表明科技行业对人工智能的全面接受还处于早期阶段，有很大的发展空间。

Shares in Nvidia rose more than 4 percent in after-hours trading. It finished the trading day as the second-most-valuable company in the world behind Microsoft and ahead of Apple, with a market value of $3.3 trillion.

英伟达的股票在盘后交易中上涨了4%以上。该公司以3.3万亿美元的市值收盘，成为全球市值第二高的公司，仅次于微软，超过了苹果。

“Every nation now sees A.I. as core to the next industrial revolution,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, said during a call with analysts on Wednesday.

“现在每个国家都把人工智能视为下一次工业革命的核心，”英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋周三在与分析师的电话会议上说。

The company is showing its strength even among the tech industry’s largest companies. For the first time in the A.I. era, its quarterly sales surpassed those of Meta, the social media pioneer. Nvidia’s net income was 13 percent larger than Meta’s profit in their most recent quarters.

即使在科技行业的大公司中，英伟达都显示出了自己的实力。在人工智能时代，它的季度销售额首次超过了社交媒体先驱Meta。在最近几个季度，英伟达的净收入比Meta的利润高出13%。

Nvidia has been the early winner in the tech industry’s race to develop artificial intelligence. Under Mr. Huang, Nvidia cornered the market on A.I. chips by being the first chipmaker to develop the software and servers that would train A.I. systems to recognize images and predict words.

在科技行业开发人工智能的竞赛中，英伟达是早期的赢家。在黄仁勋的领导下，英伟达率先开发出训练人工智能系统识别图像和预测文字的软件及服务器，从而占领了人工智能芯片市场。

But government officials have grown increasingly alarmed about the way adversaries like China could use A.I. to develop autonomous weapons and coordinate military strikes. Those worries have led Washington officials to crack down on Nvidia’s sales.

但政府官员越来越担心，像中国这样的对手可能会利用人工智能来开发自主武器和协调的军事打击。这导致华盛顿官员打击了英伟达的销售。

Mr. Huang spent much of the past few months pushing back on that by traveling the world to meet with government officials. An April meeting with President Trump proved to be unsuccessful when the Commerce Department later pushed forward on limiting sales to China. Mr. Huang later flew to Beijing, where he pledged to find a new way to sell chips there, and then to Taiwan, where he complained that the U.S. government’s restrictions had been a failure.

过去几个月里，黄仁勋花了很多时间奔走于世界各地，与政府官员会面，希望打消这方面的顾虑。4月与特朗普总统的会晤被证明是不成功的，因为商务部后来推动了对中国的禁售。黄仁勋后来飞到北京，承诺要找到一种新的方式向中国销售芯片，然后又飞到台湾，抱怨美国政府的限制措施是失败的。

His efforts haven’t changed the trajectory of Nvidia’s business in China. Since the U.S. government began restricting chip exports, Nvidia’s sales in China have been cut to 13 percent of total revenue from 21 percent two years ago. The company said it would lose $8 billion in the current quarter because of the Trump administration’s restrictions.

他的努力并没有改变英伟达在中国的业务轨迹。自美国政府开始限制芯片出口以来，英伟达在中国的销售额占其总收入的比例已从两年前的21%降至13%。该公司表示，由于特朗普政府的限制，本季度将损失80亿美元。

On Wednesday, Mr. Huang broadened his attack on U.S. restrictions of chip sales to China. He said in prepared remarks that China was the world’s largest A.I. market and that the company that won there would be the global leader. He said the U.S. assumption that it could prevent China from manufacturing competitive chips “was always questionable, and now it’s clearly wrong.”

周三，黄仁勋加大了对美国的对华禁售政策的批评。在一次有讲稿的讲话中，他说中国是世界上最大的人工智能市场，在那里获胜的公司将成为全球领导者。他说，美国认为它可以阻止中国制造有竞争力的芯片的假设“从来站不住脚，而现在已经可以看到是错误的”。

“Shielding Chinese chipmakers from U.S. competition only strengthens them abroad and weakens America’s position,” Mr. Huang said.

“保护中国芯片制造商不受美国竞争的影响，只会增强它们在海外的实力，削弱美国的地位，”黄仁勋说。

Mr. Huang has had more success in persuading the U.S. government to loosen up sales to other countries. After his urging, the Trump administration rolled back Biden-era rules that restricted A.I. chip sales abroad. The change paved the way to a blockbuster deal this month between the United States and the United Arab Emirates to build the world’s largest international hub of A.I. data centers.

黄仁勋在说服美国政府放宽对其他国家的销售方面取得了更大的成功。在他的敦促下，特朗普政府撤销了拜登时代限制人工智能芯片海外销售的规定。这一变化为本月美国和阿拉伯联合酋长国达成一项重磅交易铺平了道路，双方将建立世界上最大的国际人工智能数据中心枢纽。

Nvidia has made selling more chips to governments a key part of its strategy. The company relies on customers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta for a large portion of its sales. It wants to expand its customer base by adding buyers across Europe and Asia, including the Middle East, where A.I. could be part of the national infrastructure much like a telecommunications network, Mr. Huang has said.

英伟达将向政府出售更多芯片作为其战略的关键部分。该公司的很大一部分销售额来自微软、亚马逊、谷歌和Meta等客户。公司希望在欧洲和亚洲（包括中东）找到更多买家，从而扩大客户群。黄仁勋说，在中东，人工智能可以像电信网络一样成为国家基础设施的一部分。

The United States also doesn’t have the energy resources to support the current demand for data centers. The maximum amount of power available this year for many companies is 50 megawatts, enough to support about 25,000 of Nvidia’s newest A.I. chips. By comparison, OpenAI is planning a 200-megawatt data center next year at an A.I. campus in Abu Dhabi that could support 100,000 of Nvidia’s chips.

美国的能源资源也不足以支持当前对数据中心的需求。许多公司今年可用的最大电量为50兆瓦，可以支持约2.5万块英伟达最新的人工智能芯片的运行。相比之下，OpenAI计划明年在阿布扎比的一个人工智能园区建立一个200兆瓦的数据中心，可以支持10万块英伟达芯片。

The deal was important because Nvidia has a window to sell to countries before competition for A.I. chips increases, said Holger Mueller, principal analyst at Constellation Research, a tech research firm.

科技研究公司星座研究的首席分析师霍尔格·穆勒称，这笔交易很重要，因为在人工智能芯片的竞争加剧之前，英伟达有了一个向各国出售产品的窗口。

“Now they’re the only game in town,” Mr. Mueller said of Nvidia. “These Middle East countries really need them.”

“现在他们是唯一的竞争者，”穆勒在谈到英伟达时说。“这些中东国家真的需要他们。”

Nvidia said it had improved manufacturing of its new Blackwell chips. Cloud computing companies are deploying about 72,000 Blackwell chips a week, which cost more than $30,000 each.

英伟达表示，已经改进了新款Blackwell芯片的制造工艺。云计算公司每周部署约7.2万块Blackwell芯片，每块芯片的价格超过3万美元。

“We’re going to keep our supply chain quite busy for many more years,” Mr. Huang said.

“我们会让我们的供应链继续忙碌很多年，”黄仁勋说。

China has a space station and, in just a few short years, has landed robots on the moon and Mars. This week the country’s space agency is targeting new, far-flung destinations and setting off for an asteroid that could contain secrets that explain how Earth and the moon formed.

中国早已建成一个空间站，并在短短几年内将机器人送上了月球和火星。本周，中国航天将目光投向了更遥远的新目标——发射探测器前往一颗可能有助于揭开地球与月球形成之谜的小行星。

The country’s Tianwen-2 spacecraft is lifted off aboard a Long March 3B rocket from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China on Thursday around 1:31 a.m. local time, according to state media. (it was still Wednesday in New York).

据官方媒体报道，天问二号探测器已于当地时间周四（纽约时间的周三）凌晨1时31分左右，由长征三号乙运载火箭从位于中国西南部的西昌卫星发射中心发射升空。

After about a year, the robotic mission will arrive at 469219 Kamoʻoalewa, a near-Earth asteroid. There, it will perilously try to scoop up some rocky matter, and then swing back around to Earth. A capsule filled with geologic treasure would then plunge toward the planet for retrieval by scientists in late 2027.

约一年后，这个无人探测器将抵达近地小行星469219（又叫震荡天星）。在那里，它将冒险尝试采集岩石物质，随后折返地球。一个装有地质样本的返回舱将冲向地球，预计科学家将在2027年底将其回收。

If Tianwen-2 pulls this off, China will become the third nation — after Japan and the United States — to retrieve pristine material from an asteroid.

若天问二号成功完成任务，中国将成为继日本和美国之后，第三个从小行星获取原始物质的国家。

“All Chinese planetary scientists are now finger-crossed for this historic mission,” said Yuqi Qian, a lunar geologist at the University of Hong Kong.

“中国所有的行星科学家都在忐忑地期待这次历史性任务的成功，”香港大学月球地质学家钱煜奇表示。

The spacecraft also has a secondary target, an unusual comet that it could study as part of an extended mission.

探测器还有一个次要目标——一颗不寻常的彗星，作为扩展任务的一部分，它将对其展开研究。

Visiting these objects will help reveal more about the building blocks of the worlds of the inner solar system. And as asteroids can pose an impact risk to Earth, missions to study the structures and mineral makeups of these objects can aid planning to deflect or vaporize them.

造访这些天体将有助于揭示更多关于太阳系内行星形成的奥秘。鉴于小行星存在撞击地球的风险，研究其结构与矿物组成有助于制定偏转或摧毁它们的计划。

“A sample return mission is a gift that keeps on giving,” said Sara Russell, a planetary scientist at London’s Natural History Museum.

伦敦自然史博物馆的行星科学家萨拉·拉塞尔说：“样本返回任务如同一个不断带来新收获的礼物。”

While fragments of asteroids reach Earth’s surface periodically, they are contaminated and altered when they plummet through the atmosphere. Scientists prefer untouched matter from the source, brought back to study in ultraclean laboratories.

尽管小行星碎片会偶尔坠落到地球表面，但它们在穿过大气层时会遭到污染和改变。科学家更倾向于从源头获取未受干扰的物质，带回超净实验室进行研究。

“Sample return missions allow us to pick apart the physical and chemical properties of a body in a level of detail that’s not possible with remote observations by telescopes and spacecraft,” said Ashley King, a meteoriticist also at the London museum.

“样本返回任务能让我们以前所未有的精度解析天体的物理化学特性，这是望远镜或航天器远程观测无法实现的，”伦敦自然史博物馆陨石学家阿什利·金解释道。

Japan has accomplished this twice, with its Hayabusa spacecraft raiding the asteroids Itokawa in 2005 and Ryugu in 2019. NASA’s sample return mission to the asteroid Bennu, Osiris-Rex, pulled off the same feat in 2020.

日本已两次完成此类任务，它的隼鸟号探测器分别于2005年和2019年从小行星丝川和小行星“龙宫”采集样本。美国国家航空航天局的奥西里斯-Rex探测器也于2020年完成了对小行星贝努的样本采集。

China’s space agency has executed two successful sample return missions to the moon — in 2020 and 2024. But Tianwen-2 (Tianwen is often translated as “Questions to Heaven”) is China’s first foray into asteroid sample return.

中国的航天机构虽已在2020年和2024年两次成功从月球采样返回，但天问二号将是中国首次尝试小行星采样返回。

Kamoʻoalewa, the asteroid it will visit, is somewhat peculiar. As a quasi-satellite earlier known as 2016 HO3, it loops around Earth, but it is not a true moon, because it is gravitationally bound to the sun. Recent telescopic observations, though, suggest it is made of the same volcanic matter found on the moon, implying that it is a piece of the lunar surface shorn off by a meteor impact.

天问二号即将造访的这颗小行星颇为特殊。这颗曾编号2016HO3的准卫星虽绕地运行，但并非真正的地球卫星，因为它受太阳引力主导。它由与月球相同的火山物质构成，这意味着它可能是被陨石撞击后从月球表面剥离的一块碎片。

“Kamoʻoalewa, therefore, potentially holds key information about the formation and evolution of the Earth-moon system,” Dr. King said.

“因此，震荡天星可能掌握着地月系形成和演化的关键信息。”阿什利·金说。

However “its origins remain an open question,” said Benjamin Sharkey, a planetary astronomer at the University of Maryland who made those recent telescopic observations. He said he was excited that Tianwen-2 was going to bring some of the asteroid home for study, which should close the case of Kamoʻoalewa’s origins.

“然而它的起源仍然是一个未解之谜，”马里兰大学的行星天文学家本杰明·沙基说。他表示很期待天问二号能把这颗小行星的样本带回地球进行研究，这应该能解开震荡天星的起源之谜。

China has revealed few details about how Tianwen-2 will work. An academic paper posted last year offers some clues. A variety of cameras and infrared imagers will ascertain Kamoʻoalewa’s shape, size, spin and mineral makeup, while a radar system will map its internal structure.

中国对天问二号如何运转的具体细节披露有限，不过去年发表的一篇学术论文透露了若干关键信息：多光谱相机与红外成像仪将测定震荡天星的形态、尺寸、自转参数及矿物组成，同时搭载的雷达系统将对其内部结构进行测绘。

By looking at the thermal properties of Kamoʻoalewa, Tianwen-2 will also help study the Yarkovsky effect. When sunlight hits a rotating asteroid, its sunward side heats up. As it continues to spin, it cools down, which nudges the asteroid, like a small thruster. Over time, escaping heat can push a harmless asteroid onto an Earth-impacting orbit.

通过观察震荡天星的热特性，天问二号还将帮助研究雅可夫斯基效应。当阳光照射到一颗旋转的小行星时，它向阳的一面会升温。当小行星继续旋转时，它就会冷却下来，从而推动小行星，就像一个小型推进器。随着时间的推移，逸散的热量会将一颗无害的小行星推向撞击地球的轨道。

Kamoʻoalewa can get within nine million miles of Earth, making it an easy target to reach. But diving down to sample it is risky. “The sample collection and return are hardest,” Dr. Russell said, “because humans have only a very limited amount of experience in doing both.”

尽管震荡天星距离地球最近可达1448万公里，是一个容易抵达的目标，但靠近表面采集样本仍有风险。“样本采集和返回是最困难的环节，”拉塞尔说，“因为人类在这两方面的经验非常有限。”

The asteroid may be only 130 feet across — a small target. Its rapid rotation, about once every 28 minutes, poses additional challenges. “You need to find ways to either grab the sample without landing or a way to hang on as it spins,” Dr. King said.

这是颗直径仅40米左右的小行星，目标很小，加上约28分钟一圈的高速自转特性，更是增加了采样难度。“必须研发非接触式采样技术，或实现与其自转同步的锚定系统，”阿什利·金解释道。

China’s spacecraft may try doing both. “Tianwen-2 will use two methods to collect samples from Kamoʻoalewa,” Dr. Qian said.

中国的探测器可能会同时尝试这两种方法。“天问二号将使用两种方法从震荡天星采集样本，”钱煜奇说。

The first is “Touch and Go,” a method employed by the U.S. and Japanese asteroid missions: The spacecraft briefly makes contact with the object, kicks up the surface (using compressed gas, or a fired projectile) and captures jettisoned rocks before the spacecraft flees the scene.

第一种是“触地即走”，这是美国和日本小行星任务即采用该方法：探测器短暂接触天体表面，通过压缩气体或发射弹丸扬起表面物质，捕获飞溅的石块，然后撤离。

The second method, “Anchor and Attach,” has never been tested. Using a series of drills, Tianwen-2 will try to adhere to the asteroid before retrieving both shallow and deeper samples.

第二种方法，即“锚定附着”，这种方法从未进行过实地测试。天问二号将使用一系列钻头固定在小行星上，然后采集浅层和深层样本。

If Tianwen-2 navigates those dangers and eventually drops its bits of Kamoʻoalewa to Earth, it will then fly to the Comet 311P/PanSTARRS, arriving in the early 2030s to study it remotely.

若天问二号成功克服这些风险，最终将震荡天星样本投放回地球，随后将飞往311P/PanSTARRS彗星，预计2030年代初抵达并开展远程研究。

While most comets witnessed from Earth travel on long-haul journeys around the sun, 311P is a main belt comet. These icy curiosities stay within the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

与大多数需要绕太阳长途跋涉的彗星不同，311P属于主带彗星——这些罕有的冰封天体会停留在火星与木星之间的小行星带。

“These types of objects remain very mysterious,” Dr. Sharkey said, not least because icy rocks should not exist this close to the sun’s warm glow. But they may help explain how Earth became a planet with vast oceans.

“这类天体仍然非常神秘，”沙基说，尤其是因为在靠近太阳温暖光芒的地方，冰质岩石本不应存在。但它们可能有助于解释地球是如何成为一颗拥有浩瀚海洋的行星的。

Tianwen-2 is more than just a scientific sleuth. It is also a technological steppingstone for China’s ambitious Tianwen-3 mission. Due to launch in 2028, it aims to retrieve rock samples from Mars and return them to Earth. A comparable effort led by the United States to achieve the same goal is facing major hurdles.

天问二号不仅仅是一项科学探索。它也是中国雄心勃勃的天问三号任务的技术垫脚石。后者将于2028年发射，目标是从火星采集岩石样本并送回地球。美国为实现相同目标的类似计划正面临重大困难。

But the race for the red planet should not overshadow China’s first bid to acquire shards of an asteroid.

然而，这场火星竞赛不应掩盖中国首次获取小行星样本的里程碑意义。

“This is very exciting,” said Richard Binzel, a planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But asteroids present their own challenges.”

“这非常令人兴奋，”麻省理工学院行星科学家理查德·宾泽尔说，“但小行星探测自有其独特挑战。”

The Trump administration has suspended some sales to China of critical U.S. technologies, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors and certain chemicals. The move is a response to China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals to the United States, a decision by Beijing that has threatened to cripple U.S. company supply chains, according to two people familiar with the matter.

特朗普政府暂停了一些关键美国技术的对华销售，包括与喷气发动机、半导体和某些化学品有关的技术。据两位知情人士透露，此举是对中国最近限制向美国出口关键矿产的回应，北京这一决定可能导致美国公司的供应链瘫痪。

The new limits are pushing the world’s largest economies a step closer toward supply chain warfare, as Washington and Beijing try to flex their power over essential economic components in an attempt to gain the upper hand in an intensifying trade conflict.

新的限制正将全球最大的两个经济体推向一场供应链战争，华盛顿和北京正试图在重要的经济领域展示自己的力量，都想在愈演愈烈的贸易冲突中占据上风。

The standoff could have significant implications for companies that depend on foreign technologies, including makers of airplanes, robots cars and semiconductors.

这种僵局可能对依赖外国技术的公司，包括飞机、机器人、汽车和半导体制造商产生重大影响，

It could also complicate efforts to negotiate an end to a trade fight over the administration’s tariff policies. On May 12, negotiators from the two countries agreed to reduce the punishing tariffs they have imposed on each other for 90 days while negotiators sought a longer-term resolution.

为了结束特朗普政府关税政策引发的贸易战而进行的谈判也可能因这些举措而愈发困难。5月12日，两国谈判代表同意在90天内降低彼此征收的高额关税，同时寻求一项长期解决方案。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said at the time that “the consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling.” Yet the administration continues to target China with punitive measures.

财政部长贝森特当时表示，“双方代表团的共识是，双方都不希望脱钩。”然而，政府继续对中国采取惩罚性措施。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Wednesday that the United States would “aggressively revoke” visas for Chinese students who study in critical fields or who connections to the Chinese Communist Party.

国务卿鲁比奥周三宣布，美国将“积极寻求撤销”在关键领域学习或与中国共产党有联系的中国学生的签证。

Since their agreement to roll back tariffs in May, U.S. officials had expected the Chinese to relax restrictions they had imposed on critical minerals, but they do not appear to be pleased with China’s efforts.

自5月双方同意降低关税以来，美国官员曾期望中国放宽对关键矿产的限制，但他们似乎对中国的努力并不满意。

In recent days, the Chinese have restarted some shipments of rare earth magnets, but they have been limited, one of the people said. American companies remain concerned about their access to critical Chinese supplies.

其中一名知情人士表示，最近几天，中国重启了部分稀土磁铁的运输，但数量有限。美国公司仍然担心能否获得关键的中国供应。

In April, China suspended exports of a range of critical minerals and magnets, which are essential for automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world. The Chinese government said it had halted the shipments while drafting a new regulatory system.

今年4月，中国暂停了一系列关键矿产和磁铁的出口，这些对世界各地的汽车制造商、航空航天制造商、半导体公司和军事承包商来说都至关重要。中国政府表示正在起草新的监管规则，在此期间暂时停止这些产品的出口。

Beijing’s moves were in response to Mr. Trump’s decision to sharply increase tariffs on China in early April, to a minimum of 145 percent, after Beijing retaliated against his earlier tariffs. Mr. Trump had imposed levies on dozens of countries globally, citing their unfair trade practices, and warned other countries not to respond in kind.

北京的举措是对特朗普4月初决定将对中国的关税大幅提高到至少145%的回应，此前北京对特朗普之前的关税进行了报复。特朗普以不公平的贸易行为为由，对全球数十个国家征收了关税，并警告其他国家不要做出以牙还牙的回应。

The new export restrictions appear to be part of a broader review within the Commerce Department of exports of strategic goods to China. The Bureau of Industry and Security, a division within the department, is in charge of granting companies licenses that allow them to export products that have military value or other strategic importance to the United States.

新的出口限制似乎是美国商务部对战略物资出口中国进行更广泛审查的一部分。商务部下属的工业和安全局负责向企业发放许可证，允许它们出口对美国具有军事价值或其他战略重要性的产品。

One person familiar with the matter, who declined to be named to discuss private conversations, said the Commerce Department had suspended some licenses that allowed American companies to sell products and technology to COMAC, a Chinese state-owned aerospace manufacturer, in order to develop its C919 aircraft.

一位因涉及私人谈话而拒绝透露姓名的知情人士表示，商务部已经暂停了一些允许美国公司向中国国有航空制造商中国商飞出售其开发C919飞机所需产品和技术的许可证。

The Commerce Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

商务部没有立即回应置评请求。

The C919, a plane comparable in size to the Boeing 737 or the Airbus A320, carried paying passengers for the first time in 2023. Many of the plane’s parts, including its engines and components necessary to power and control the aircraft, come from U.S. and European suppliers.

C919是一种与波音737或空客A320大小相当的飞机，在2023年首次搭载付费乘客。这架飞机的许多部件，包括发动机和为飞机提供动力和控制所需的部件，都来自美国和欧洲的供应商。

China is a long way away from producing enough planes to meet its needs and, analysts say, will continue to be dependent on Boeing and Airbus for planes, and companies like GE Aerospace for jet engines, for many years to come.

中国距离生产足够的飞机来满足其需求还有很长的路要走，分析人士称，在未来的许多年里，中国将继续依赖波音和空客制造飞机，并依靠通用航空等公司生产喷气发动机。

The Trump administration also appears to have paused exports of software, sold by companies like Cadence, Synopsys and Siemens, used to design computer chips.

特朗普政府似乎还暂停了楷登电子、新思科技和西门子等公司销售的用于设计计算机芯片的软件的出口。

The Financial Times earlier reported that the Trump administration was restricting exports of chip design software to China. The Biden administration had placed some limits on sales to China of software for the most advanced chips, but most sales were not affected by those restrictions.

《金融时报》早些时候报道称，特朗普政府正在限制向中国出口芯片设计软件。拜登政府对最先进芯片的软件向中国的销售施加了一些限制，但大多数销售并未受到影响。

China has accelerated its efforts to develop its own advanced chips, particularly since the United States and its allies started restricting exports of advanced chips and the equipment used to make them to curb China’s progress in artificial intelligence. But it remains dependent on foreign countries for software and machinery used to make advanced chips.

中国加快了开发自己的先进芯片的努力，尤其是在美国及其盟友开始限制先进芯片及其制造设备的出口，以遏制中国在人工智能方面的进步之后。但中国制造先进芯片所需的软件和机器仍然依赖外国。

Representatives for GE, Honeywell, Cadence and Siemens did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Synopsys declined to comment.

通用电气、霍尼韦尔、楷登电子和西门子的代表没有立即回应置评请求。新思科技拒绝置评。

A panel of federal judges on Wednesday blocked President Trump from imposing some of his steepest tariffs on China and other U.S. trading partners, finding that federal law did not grant him “unbounded authority” to tax imports from nearly every country around the world.

周三，一个联邦合议庭阻止了特朗普总统对中国和其他美国贸易伙伴征收的一些最严厉的关税，认为联邦法律并未赋予他对来自全球几乎所有国家的进口产品征税的“无限权力”。

The ruling, by the U.S. Court of International Trade, delivered an early yet significant setback to Mr. Trump in his campaign to strike a series of agreements that reorient the nation’s trading relationships, setting up a legal fight that could soon reach the Supreme Court.

特朗普正在努力达成一系列重新定位美国贸易关系的协议，美国国际贸易法院的这项裁决对他而言是一个初步但意义重大的挫折，引发了一场可能很快就会抵达最高法院的法律斗争。

Before Mr. Trump took office, no president had sought to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law, to impose tariffs on other nations. The law, which primarily concerns trade embargoes and sanctions, does not even mention tariffs.

在特朗普上任之前，从未有总统试图援引1977年颁布的《国际紧急经济权力法》对其他国家征收关税。该法案主要适用于贸易禁运和制裁，甚至未曾提及“关税”一词。

But Mr. Trump adopted a novel interpretation of its powers as he announced, and then suspended, high levies on scores of countries in April. He also used the law to impose tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico in return for what he said was their role in sending fentanyl to the United States.

但特朗普对该法案进行了全新的解读。4月，他宣布对数十个国家征收高额关税，随后又暂停执行。此外，他还引用该法案对来自加拿大和墨西哥的商品加征关税，理由是它们在向美国输送芬太尼方面“负有责任”。

On Wednesday, the Court of International Trade, the primary federal legal body overseeing such matters, found that Mr. Trump’s tariffs “exceed any authority granted” to the president by the emergency powers law. Ruling in separate cases brought by states and businesses, a bipartisan panel of three judges essentially declared many, but not all, of Mr. Trump’s tariffs to have been issued illegally.

周三，负责监督此类事务的主要联邦法律机构——国际贸易法院裁定，特朗普的关税“超出了紧急状态法赋予总统的任何权力”。由三名法官组成的两党小组分别审理了各州和企业提起的案件，裁定特朗普的许多——但并非全部——关税是非法的。

It was not clear precisely when and how the tariff collections would grind to a halt. The decision gave the executive branch up to 10 days to complete the bureaucratic process of halting them. Shortly after the ruling, the Justice Department told the court that it planned to file an appeal.

目前尚不清楚关税征收将在何时以及如何停止。这一决定给了行政部门最多10天的时间来完成停止这些关税征收的行政程序。在裁决后不久，司法部向法院表示计划提起上诉。

For now, the decision threatens to undercut the administration’s efforts to reach trade agreements globally since the president is using the prospect of boundless tariffs — enacted on his own, without congressional approval — as a bargaining chip in negotiations with roughly 18 countries. Those deals are still under negotiation, and some of Mr. Trump’s top aides had told the court in recent days that an adverse ruling could imperil the talks.

目前来看，这项裁决可能会削弱美国政府在全球范围内达成贸易协定的努力，因为特朗普正依靠这些“不受国会批准约束的”无限制关税作为谈判筹码，与约18个国家进行贸易磋商。这些协议仍在谈判中，而特朗普的一些高级顾问近日曾告知法院，一旦裁决不利，可能会危及谈判进程。

The ruling does not affect tariffs issued by the Trump administration under separate legal authorities, including levies on steel, aluminum and cars, and others that Mr. Trump has threatened on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and other critical products.

此次裁决不影响特朗普政府依据其他法律依据所实施的关税，包括针对钢铁、铝和汽车的征税，以及总统此前曾威胁要加征的涉及药品、半导体和其他关键产品的关税。

A White House spokesman, Kush Desai, sharply rebuked the court, saying in a statement that unfair trade relationships had “decimated American communities, left our workers behind and weakened our defense industrial base — facts that the court did not dispute.”

白宫发言人库什·德赛严厉谴责了法院的裁决，他在一份声明中说，不公平的贸易关系“摧毁了美国社区，对我们的工人弃之不顾，削弱了我们的国防工业基础——法院没有对这些事实提出异议。”

“It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency,” he said, adding that Mr. Trump would use “every lever of executive power to address this crisis.”

“如何妥善处理国家紧急状态不是由非民选法官决定的，”他说，并且特朗普将利用“行政权力的每一个杠杆来应对这场危机”。

Lawyers for the Justice Department had staunchly defended the legality of Mr. Trump’s strategy, telling the court repeatedly that it had no right to review the president’s actions — a stance that discomfited the bipartisan panel of three jurists multiple times over weeks of arguments.

司法部的律师曾坚定地为特朗普政策的合法性辩护，一再表示法庭无权审查总统的行为——在数周的辩论中，这一立场多次让合议庭的三名跨党派法官感到不安。

The tension arose repeatedly last Wednesday, when a coalition of 12 states led by Oregon asked the court to issue a permanent injunction that would halt Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

上周三，以俄勒冈州为首的12个州组成的联盟要求法院发布一项永久性禁令，停止特朗普的关税，紧张局势一再加剧。

“The president identified the emergency, and he decided the means to address that emergency,” Brett Shumate, a lawyer at the Justice Department, told the court. He added that the goal had been to “bring our trading partners to the table” and create political leverage for possible deal-making.

“总统确定了紧急情况，并决定了应对紧急情况的方法，”司法部律师布雷特·舒马特在法庭上说。他还说，目标是“把我们的贸易伙伴拉到谈判桌前”，并为可能达成的交易创造政治杠杆。

“It may be a very dandy plan, but it has to meet the statute,” replied Judge Jane A. Restani, who was nominated to the trade court by President Ronald Reagan.

由罗纳德·里根总统提名的简·A·雷斯塔尼法官回答说，“这可能是一个非常棒的计划，但它必须符合法规。”

European companies, many of which have operated in China for decades, are finding it increasingly difficult to do business in the country, another sign of how China’s weak domestic economy and opaque regulations are testing even longstanding multinational business ties.

欧洲企业发现在中国开展业务越来越困难，即便是那些在华扎根几十年的企业也不例外，这一现象再次表明，中国疲软的国内经济和不透明的监管环境正考验着甚至长久存在的跨国商业关系。

European automakers have been rapidly losing market share and face many political difficulties. Volkswagen agreed last December to sell its factory in northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, where Beijing has repressed Muslim ethnic groups. European pharmaceutical and medical imaging equipment companies have found themselves locked out of much of the state-run health system.

欧洲的汽车制造商们已在中国迅速失去市场份额，同时还面临诸多政治层面的挑战。大众汽车去年12月宣布出售公司位于中国西北部新疆地区的工厂，中国政府一直在该地区压制穆斯林少数民族。欧洲的制药和医学影像设备公司已发现自己基本上被中国政府的医保系统拒之门外。

An extensive annual survey of businesses released on Wednesday by the European Chamber of Commerce in China found that nearly three-quarters said it was getting harder to operate in China. It was the fourth consecutive year that the survey showed deepening corporate pessimism.

中国欧盟商会周三发布的一项年度企业调查显示，近四分之三的欧洲企业表示在华经营难度持续增加。这是该调查连续第四年显示企业悲观情绪在加剧。

The proportion of European companies that plan to expand their operations in China has also fallen to a record low, with just 38 percent saying that they intend to do so this year. European investment has been important in bringing Western technology to China and in bringing Chinese products to world markets.

打算扩大在华业务的欧洲企业比例也降到历史最低点，只有38%的企业表示今年有这种打算。长期以来，欧洲投资在将西方技术引入中国以及将中国产品推向世界市场上发挥着重要作用。

The chamber, which has been gauging challenges companies face in China for a quarter century, represents the interests of some 1,700 companies, from industrial giants like VW to small businesses with a handful of employees who are cogs in global supply chains.

过去25年来，中国欧盟商会一直在评估企业在华面临的挑战，商会代表着约1700家企业的利益，其中既有大众汽车这样的工业巨头，也包括只有少数员工但在全球供应链中不可或缺的小企业。

The chamber’s survey also unearthed a somewhat contradictory trend that could prove troublesome for President Trump’s attempt to shield American manufacturing from China’s exports with tariffs. Even as European businesses curb their own investments in China, some are also buying ever more components from Chinese companies. That makes their supply chains even more dependent on China.

该商会的调查还发现了一个有些矛盾的趋势，这可能会给特朗普总统试图通过来关税保护美国制造业不受中国出口产品冲击的努力带来麻烦。就在欧洲企业减少在华投资的同时，一些企业却正在从中国企业那里购买越来越多的零部件。这让它们的供应链更依赖中国。

China has retaliated against Mr. Trump’s tariffs by imposing its own tariffs on American goods. That has prompted a hunt by European companies in China for Chinese replacements for the few components they were still buying from the United States, said Jens Eskelund, the chamber’s president.

中国已对特朗普的关税采取了反制措施，对美国商品加征了自己的关税。这已促使在华经营的欧洲企业开始寻找替代它们仍在从美国购买的少数零部件的中国产品，中国欧盟商会主席彦辞(Jens Eskelund)说。

中国欧盟商会主席彦辞说，欧洲企业能在中国以比其他任何地方“都低的价格买到更好的零部件”。

A broad fall in prices in China has made Chinese components too good a deal for many European companies to pass up. A recent weakening of China’s currency against the euro has made Chinese components even more attractive.

中国商品价格大范围下降，已使购买中国零部件对许多欧洲企业来说是不能错过的好买卖。人民币兑欧元汇率最近走弱，进一步增强了中国零部件的吸引力。

“The one place where they actually get better components at a lower price than anywhere else in the world is here in China,” Mr. Eskelund said.

“他们能以全球最低价格获得更优质零部件的唯一地方，就是中国，”彦辞说。

Not only the United States, but the European Union and other countries have imposed tariffs lately in response to China’s soaring exports of manufactured goods and tepid demand for imports. European companies that export from China to other markets had long feared possible trade barriers, but some were still caught off guard.

作为对中国制成品出口飙升、进口需求低迷的回应，最近对中国商品加征关税的不只是美国，也有欧盟和其他国家。把商品从中国出口到其他市场的欧洲公司长期以来一直担心贸易壁垒，但有些公司仍被新关税搞得措手不及。

“That fear has turned into a nightmare for many at the moment,” said Klaus Zenkel, a businessman in Shenzhen who is a member of the chamber’s South China chapter.

“那种担心对许多人来说如今已变成一场噩梦，”常驻深圳的商业人士、中国欧盟商会华南区分会主席高志豪(Klaus Zenkel)说。

Some companies have set up temporary assembly operations in other countries to bypass American tariffs, Mr. Zenkel said. They rent warehouses in places like Taiwan, do the final assembly of Chinese components in the warehouses and then ship the finished goods to the United States with customs declarations that no longer show the goods as coming from China.

高志豪表示，一些企业已在其他国家设立了临时组装厂，以规避美国的关税。它们在台湾等地租用仓库，在仓库里对中国零部件进行最后的组装，然后将成品运往美国，在报关单上不再标明货物来自中国。

The Trump administration is trying to reduce these indirect shipments from China. Mr. Trump has threatened high tariffs against countries that run large trade surpluses with the United States.

特朗普政府正试图减少这种来自中国的间接出口。特朗普已威胁要对那些与美国存在巨额贸易顺差的国家征收高额关税。

One category of business conditions has improved very markedly in China in the past year, according to the European chamber’s survey.

据欧洲商会的调查，过去一年中有一类营商环境指标在中国显著改善。

The share of European companies worried about rising wages has fallen steeply over the last several years, and these now rank among the least of their concerns. Labor costs had been rising along with China’s surging housing prices. But that bubble burst in 2021, causing declines in construction that eliminated many jobs.

担心中国工资上涨的欧洲企业的比例过去几年来急剧下降，这个问题在它们的关注排名中目前垫底。此前，劳动力成本曾随着中国房价的飙升而上涨。但中国的房价泡沫已在2021年破裂，导致了建筑业衰退，大量就业岗位流失。

In turn, flat or even falling wages have contributed to weak demand in China for everything from imported cosmetics to hotel rooms — resulting in broadly low prices, a potentially dangerous phenomenon known as deflation.

反过来，工资不再增长甚至下降，导致中国对从进口化妆品到酒店客房等各种商品的需求疲软，进而造成了普遍的价格低迷，出现了一种被称为通货紧缩的潜在危险。

“By a wide margin, it is China’s economic slowdown that is seen as having the greatest impact,” Mr. Eskelund said.

“企业把中国经济放缓视为影响最大的因素，比其他因素大得多，”彦辞说。

The State Department is temporarily halting interviews abroad with foreign citizens applying for student and exchange visas as it expands scrutiny of applicants’ social media posts.

美国国务院正在暂停对赴美留学、交流的外国公民在海外申请签证需要进行的面谈，同时加强对申请者的社交媒体帖子的审查。

The order was issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a cable dated Tuesday that went out to U.S. embassies and consulates. A State Department official confirmed on Tuesday that Mr. Rubio had given the order to pause new interview appointments until further guidance.

这项命令是国务卿马可·鲁比奥在周二发给美国驻外使团的电报中下达的。国务院一名官员周二证实了鲁比奥已下令暂停新的签证面谈预约，直至另行通知。

“We use all available information in our visa screening and vetting,” the State Department said in a statement, without specifying what could flag an applicant for rejection under a new social media policy. The statement noted that visa applicants have been asked to provide social media account information on forms since 2019.

“我们使用所有可找到的信息来筛查和审查签证，”美国国务院在一份声明中写道，声明并未具体说明，根据新出台的社交媒体政策，哪些内容可能导致申请人被拒签。声明指出，从2019年起，签证申请表上就要求申请者提供自己的社交媒体账号信息。

The secretary of state’s order comes as President Trump is trying to coerce Harvard University and other institutions to restrict what can be said on campuses, with a particular focus on anti-Israel speech.

 国务卿鲁比奥颁布这一命令之际，特朗普总统正试图迫使哈佛大学和其他机构限制校园言论，尤其是反以色列的言论。

Mr. Trump this month said the U.S. government would no longer grant Harvard the right to enroll international students. On Friday, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order blocking Mr. Trump from moving forward with the action against Harvard and foreign students.

特朗普本月曾说，美国政府将不再授予哈佛大学招收国际学生的权利。一名联邦法官已在上周五颁布了一项临时限制令，阻止特朗普针对哈佛大学和外国学生采取进一步的行动。

Many universities in the United States rely on foreign students to pay full tuition. Those students are responsible for a substantial portion of the annual revenues of many American universities. On some campuses, foreign students make up the majority of researchers in certain disciplines, mainly in the sciences.

美国许多大学依赖外国学生支付的全额学费。这些学生是许多美国大学年度收入来源的相当一部分。在一些大学，外国学生是某些学科（主要是理科）研究队伍的主力军。

Foreign students collectively pursued more than 1.3 million degrees in higher education in 2023, according to a report by the Department of Homeland Security. Visiting professors from abroad will also be affected by the new restrictions.

据美国国土安全部的一份报告，外国学生2023年在美国攻读的高等教育学位总数超过130万个。来自国外的访问教授也将受到新规影响。

Foreign citizens with existing interview appointments for student or exchange visas should in theory still be able to attend those.

理论上，已经预约了学生签证或交流签证面谈的外国公民仍能如期进行。

In its statement, the State Department suggested the pause was a part of the ordinarily “dynamic” scheduling of interviews for such visas. The department said it bases visa timelines on what the officers need for sufficient vetting, in compliance with U.S. law and “to ensure applicants do not pose a security or safety risk to the United States.”

美国国务院在其声明中表示，暂停面谈属于这类签证“动态”排期的常规调整。国务院称审批时间线是基于签证官按照美国法律对申请人进行充分审查所需的时间，“以确保申请人不给美国造成国家安全或治安风险。”

Mr. Rubio issued a cable on March 25 that told consular officers to scrutinize the social media content of some applicants for student and other types of visas. That directive said that officers need to refer certain student and exchange visitor visa applicants to the “fraud prevention unit” for a “mandatory social media check.”

鲁比奥曾在3月25日发电报指示领事官员仔细审查某些申请学生签证和其他类型签证的人的社交媒体内容。该指令说，签证官需要将某些学生签证和交流访问签证申请人的材料转交给“欺诈预防部门”，进行“法定的社交媒体审查”。

In recent months, Mr. Rubio has spoken about canceling student visas, revoking permanent residency status (“green cards”) and scrutinizing the social media history of foreign visitors, mainly in the context of outrage around Israel’s war in Gaza. He has said pro-Palestinian protesters on campuses have harassed other students, destroyed property and disrupted daily life, even though those acts have not been widespread across university protests.

鲁比奥近几个月来多次公开提到撤销学生签证、撤销永久居留身份（“绿卡”），以及仔细审查外国访客的社交媒体历史记录，这些举措多与以色列的加沙战争引发的愤怒相关。他称大学校园里的亲巴勒斯坦抗议者存在骚扰其他学生、破坏财物以及扰乱日常生活等行为，尽管这些行为在大学抗议活动中并不普遍。

Critics say the Trump administration is trying to suppress free speech and promote ideological conformity.

批评人士称，特朗普政府正试图压制言论自由，促进意识形态上的遵从。

Mr. Rubio told reporters in late March that he had revoked 300 or more visas, many of which were issued to students, and was continuing to cancel more daily.

鲁比奥今年3月底对记者说，他已经撤销了300份或更多的签证，其中许多是发给学生的，而且他每天都在继续撤销更多的签证。

In early March, Mr. Rubio stripped Mahmoud Khalil, a recent graduate student at Columbia University, of his permanent residency status. Mr. Rubio said Mr. Khalil, who has Palestinian heritage and is married to an American citizen, was undermining U.S. foreign policy. Immigration agents then arrested Mr. Khalil.

今年3月初，鲁比奥撤销了马哈茂德·哈利勒的永久居留权，哈利勒曾在哥伦比亚大学读研究生，最近刚毕业。哈利勒是巴勒斯坦人，与一名美国公民结了婚，鲁比奥称哈利勒破坏了美国的外交政策。移民官员后来逮捕了哈利勒。

In some cases, the foreign citizens at risk of losing their visas or green cards have brought cases against the U.S. government, and judges have issued temporary restraining orders on federal actions.

部分面临失去签证或绿卡风险的外国公民已对美国政府提起诉讼，并已有法官对联邦政府的行动颁布了临时限制令。

In March, Mr. Rubio boasted about revoking the visa of a Turkish doctorate student and Fulbright scholar at Tufts University, Rumeysa Ozturk. The only protest action she had taken of any note was to co-write an essay in a student newspaper calling for university support of Palestinian rights and divestment from Israel. A judge this month ordered immigration officers to free her from a detention center.

今年3月，鲁比奥曾夸耀自己撤销了在塔夫茨大学读博士学位的土耳其人、富布赖特奖学金获得者鲁梅萨·奥兹图尔克的学生签证。她唯一具有公众影响力的抗议行动是在一份学生办的报纸上与他人合写了一篇呼吁大学支持巴勒斯坦人权利、撤资以色列的文章。一名法官本月已下令移民官员将她从一个拘留中心释放。

Science fiction is the business of imagining the future, but reading Han Song, one of China’s leading writers of the genre, can sometimes feel like reading recent history.

科幻小说是构想未来的工作，但阅读中国的科幻领军人物韩松的作品，有时会感觉像是在阅读近代史。

In 2000, he wrote a novel depicting the collapse of the World Trade Center. In 2016, another book imagined the world transformed into a giant hospital, with doctors taking people from their homes — as would happen at times during China’s coronavirus years.

2000年，他创作了一部描绘世贸中心倒塌的小说；2016年，另一部作品想象世界变成一座巨型医院，医生将人们从家中带走——这与中国新冠疫情期间的某些情况如出一辙。

For Mr. Han, 59, this means only that he had not gone far enough in imagining how dark or strange modern life could become.

对59岁的韩松而言，这仅意味着他在想象现代生活能有多黑暗或多奇异时，还不够大胆。

“I thought I was just writing, but that it was impossible for it to happen,” he said of his novel “Hospital,” in which everyone is reduced to being a patient. “It actually happened just a few years later,” he said, referring to the pandemic. “This is an example of reality being more science fiction than science fiction.”

“当时我就这么写而已，我认为这个是不可能发生的，”他在谈及小说《医院》时说，书中所有人都沦为病人。“实际情况就发生了，几年之后，”他指的是疫情，“这也是现实比科幻更科幻的一个（例子）。”

How the unthinkable can become reality has been Mr. Han’s subject for the past four decades. By day, he is a journalist at China’s state news agency, recording the country’s astonishing modernization. At night, he writes fiction to grapple with how disorienting that change can be.

过去四十年里，“不可想象之事如何成为现实”一直是韩松的创作主题。白天，他是中国国家通讯社的记者，记录着这个国家惊人的现代化进程；夜晚，他通过小说探索这种变革带来的迷茫。

His stories are bleak, grotesque and graphic. Some scrutinize the gap between China and the West, as in “The Passengers and the Creator,” a short story in which Chinese people worship a mysterious god called Boeing. Others imagine that China has displaced the United States as the world’s leading superpower. Many take ordinary settings, like subway trains, as backdrops for wild scenes of cannibalism or orgies.

他的故事凄冷、怪诞，画面感强烈：有些作品审视中西差距，如短篇《乘客与创造者》中，中国人崇拜名为“波音”的神秘神祇；还有一些设想中国取代美国成为世界超级大国；更多故事以地铁等日常场景为背景，上演食人或狂欢的荒诞情节。

3月，北京的一场科幻小说活动上展示了韩松的“医院三部曲”之一《驱魔》。

Supposed progress is always viewed warily. After China surpasses the United States in his novel “2066: Red Star over America” — the one with the collapse of the World Trade Center — it is not long before China, too, begins unraveling.

在他的小说《2066：红星照耀美国》（其中包含世贸中心倒塌的情节）里，中国超越美国后不久，自身也开始分崩离析——他对所谓的“进步”始终持警惕态度。

Classic sci-fi elements such as space travel or artificial intelligence appear, but the science is not Mr. Han’s focus. He is more interested in how people respond to new technologies and the power and disruption they represent.

太空旅行、人工智能等经典科幻元素虽有出现，但科学并非韩松的核心关注点。他更感兴趣的是人们如何应对新技术，以及技术所代表的权力与颠覆。

He has said that Chinese science fiction, more than other contemporary genres, is preoccupied with exploring pain.

他曾表示，中国科幻比其他当代文学类型更执着于探索痛苦。

That interest is also personal. Sickly from a young age, Mr. Han has in recent years seen a sharp deterioration in his health. This, he said, has made him more skeptical about the ability of medicine, and science generally, to improve humanity.

这种关注也源于个人经历：韩松自幼体弱，近年健康状况急剧恶化。他说，这让他对医学乃至科学改善人类的能力更加怀疑。

That is a potentially risky position, Mr. Han acknowledged in an interview in Beijing, where he lives with his wife. He is thin and soft-spoken, with a serious demeanor that belies the dark humor in his work.

韩松在北京——他和妻子生活在这座城市——接受采访时承认，这种立场可能存在风险。他身形消瘦、说话温和，严肃的举止与作品中的黑色幽默形成反差。

“According to our standards, there is only one possible future. It’s all planned: what 2035 will be like, what will 2050 be like, all the way until we reach peak socialism,” he said, referring to the Chinese government’s five-year plans for development. “But in science fiction, there are too many possibilities.”

“按照我们的标准，它就是一条路，按照设计好了，2035年是什么？2050年是什么？最后就到到社会主义的高级阶段、共产主义，”他指的是中国政府的五年发展规划，“但科幻里面的可能性就太多了。”

The Chinese government has promoted science fiction as a reflection of the country’s technological advancement and its global influence. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, is a fan of Jules Verne, the French author of classics like “Journey to the Center of the Earth.”

中国政府将科幻视为国家科技进步与全球影响力的体现。中国领导人习近平喜爱写了《地心游记》等名作的法国作家儒勒·凡尔纳。

The state film administration has pledged to support sci-fi films as a source of soft power; arguably China’s most successful cultural export in recent years is Liu Cixin’s novel “The Three-Body Problem,” which was adapted into a Netflix series.

国家电影局已承诺支持科幻电影作为软实力来源；近年来中国最成功的文化输出或许是刘慈欣的《三体》，该书已被改编为Netflix剧集。

3月，在北京一家书店举办的科幻小说活动上，韩松为读者签名。

Mr. Han’s writing aligns more with an earlier vision of science fiction’s role in China. In the early 20th century, when Chinese intellectuals began translating Verne, they wanted the stories to reveal the country’s weaknesses, to inspire reform.

韩松的写作更贴近过去的中国科幻的定位。20世纪初，中国知识分子开始翻译凡尔纳作品时，希望借故事揭示国家弱点、推动改革。

Mr. Han is no dissident. He has won China’s top science fiction awards and led its national science fiction association. And he is a high-ranking journalist at Xinhua, the state news agency, which never portrays China’s accomplishments as anything but thrilling and inevitable.

韩松并非异议人士：他曾获得中国科幻最高荣誉，领导全国科幻协会，同时还是新华社的高级记者——而新华社始终用激越的语调描绘着中国的成就，视其为必然。

The contradiction may be explained by the more open era in which Mr. Han began writing.

这种矛盾或许可以用韩松开始写作时那个开放的时代来解释。

He was born in the southwestern city of Chongqing during the Cultural Revolution, the 10 years of populist bloodshed unleashed by Mao Zedong. Scientific expertise was demonized as bourgeois, and universities shuttered. But after Mao died, China’s new leaders pledged to embrace modernization. Mr. Han’s father, a journalist, brought home science magazines and books such as “One Hundred Thousand Whys,” a popular science series for children. The young Mr. Han was fascinated.

他出生于文革期间的西南城市重庆——那是毛泽东发动的十年民粹主义动荡时期，科学知识被斥为资产阶级产物，大学停课。但毛泽东去世后，中国新领导人承诺拥抱现代化。韩松的父亲是一名记者，常带回家一些科学杂志和《十万个为什么》等儿童科普读物，年少的韩松为之着迷。

At university, he studied English and journalism, reading Western novels like “Slaughterhouse Five” and “Gravity’s Rainbow,” while taking science electives. He published his first novel in 1991, the same year that he started at Xinhua. Mr. Han said his bosses supported his personal writing, and some were sci-fi fans themselves.

大学期间，他主修英语和新闻，阅读《第五号屠宰场》《万有引力之虹》等西方小说，同时选修了科学课程。1991年，他发表首部小说，同年入职新华社。韩松称，上司支持他的个人创作，有些甚至本身就是科幻迷。

Science fiction’s niche status at the time also allowed writers to push the censors’ boundaries. Many new works were laced with social commentary.

当时科幻文学的小众地位也让作家得以挑战审查边界，许多新作都暗含社会评论。

Mr. Han’s particular style may also be key. Rather than making clear political statements, many of his works evoke a deep ambivalence about China’s place in the world.

韩松独特的风格或许是关键：他的许多作品并非直白的政治宣言，而是对中国在世界中的位置流露出深刻的矛盾。

中国科幻已成为文化自豪感的来源。图为韩松出席一场以刘慈欣小说《三体》命名的白酒发布会活动。

One story, “My Country Doesn’t Dream,” initially seems an indictment of China’s at-any-cost drive for development, which raised living standards but fueled corruption and other social problems. The protagonist, Xiao Ji, learns from an American spy that the Chinese government has devised a technology to make people work in their sleep.

短篇《我的祖国不做梦》初看像是对中国不惜一切代价推动发展模式的控诉——这种发展虽提升了生活水平，却助长了腐败等社会问题。主人公小纪从一名美国间谍口中得知，中国政府研发了让人们在睡梦中工作的技术。

But even as Xiao Ji reels, he is put off by the American’s sense of superiority: “He felt somewhat disgusted with this foreigner who was so set on revealing the truth to him. He suspected the man of harboring an ulterior motive.”

在感到震惊的同时，小纪又被美国人的优越感激怒：“不知怎么的，他很有些讨厌这个迫不及待向他抖露真相的外国人。他怀疑这家伙怀有不可告人的目的。”

Michael Berry, who has translated several of Mr. Han’s books into English, said there were always multiple interpretations in the writing.

将韩松多部作品译为英文的学者白睿文(Michael Berry)表示，其文字总是有多重的解读空间。

“He makes you realize the humanity in the other — and the inhumanity,” said Mr. Berry, a professor of contemporary Chinese cultural studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Maybe more the latter, because I think a lot of what he is doing is exploring this darker side of human nature.”

“他让你看到‘他者’的人性——以及非人性，”这位加州大学洛杉矶分校当代中国文化研究教授说，“或许后者更多，因为我认为他的许多创作都在探索人性的黑暗面。”

Mr. Han estimates that about half of his writing has not been published in China because of censorship. That includes “My Country Doesn’t Dream,” though it has circulated widely online.

韩松估计自己约有半数作品因审查未能在中国出版，包括已在网络广泛流传的《我的祖国不做梦》。

Lately, Mr. Han has turned his writing focus inward: to his own body.

近来，韩松将创作焦点转向自身：关注自己的身体。

On Weibo, a social media platform where he has more than 1 million followers, Mr. Han has spent the last few years sharing, in unsparing detail, the onset of dementia and other ailments. Alongside photos of books he reads or meals he eats, he describes forgetting who he was riding on the subway to meet, or losing control of his bladder.

在拥有超百万粉丝的微博上，过去几年他毫不避讳地分享失智症及其他疾病的发作细节。除了晒出阅读的书籍或餐食照片，他还描述在地铁上忘记要去见谁，或是大小便失禁的经历。

3月，在北京一家书店的活动上，韩松与其他作家在一起。

He treats his own decline with the same psychological interest he views his characters. After braving the cold to buy food, then feeling worn down, he mused: “People are always like this, selling out their bodies and souls just for a bite.”

他对自己的衰退怀着一种心理学兴趣，仿佛自己是书中的人物。有一次他顶着严寒外出购买食物，这让他疲惫不堪，于是他想：“人类总是这样，为吃一口饭出卖身体和灵魂。”

Mr. Han said he saw Weibo as a way to keep writing when creating fiction had become too tiring. He has also been experimenting with DeepSeek, the Chinese A.I. chatbot, to help him polish drafts or even write stories. He was dispirited that it sometimes produced better stories than he did. But he now has embraced it as a tool — just as the human brain was merely a tool, he said, that itself could need sharpening.

韩松称，当创作小说变得过于疲惫时，微博成了他坚持写作的方式。他还尝试用中国AI聊天机器人DeepSeek润色书稿甚至创作故事——有时AI写出的故事比他的更好，这让他有些沮丧。但现在他乐于将它作为一种工具。正如人脑只是工具，本身也需要磨砺，他说。

If human frailty is a common theme of Mr. Han’s writing, so is something slightly more optimistic: the value of writing about it.

若人类的脆弱是韩松写作的常见主题，那么还有一个稍显乐观的内核：对这种脆弱的书写本身的价值。

Starting in 2015, Mr. Han began posting on Weibo about a mysterious seven-year countdown. Fans guessed that at the end he might announce a new novel, or retire.

从2015年起，韩松开始在微博发布神秘的“七年倒计时”。粉丝猜测倒计时结束时，他可能宣布新作或退休。

In 2022, Mr. Han finally explained that he had years earlier visited a fortuneteller, who predicted his fate only until that year.

2022年，韩松终于给出了解释：多年前他曾拜访算命先生，对方对他的命运的预言止于这一年。

Now that his health had deteriorated seemingly along with the countdown, he wrote, he was unsure if that proved the existence of fate, or of hidden scientific laws.

如今，随着倒计时结束，他的健康也似乎每况愈下。他写道，不确定这是证明了命运的存在，还是有什么不为人知的科学法则。

“Of course, there are no convincing answers, nor is there any way to verify them in a laboratory,” he wrote. “Since one day my memory really may disappear, I just want to write this all down. As a reminder for myself, and for anyone interested in studying it.”

“当然这些都没有令人信服的答案，也无法在实验室重复，”他写道，“因为说不定记忆哪天真的消失了，就把这些先写下来，给自己备忘，也供感兴趣的人研究。”

3月，韩松在北京。人类的脆弱是他写作的一个主题，而他自己也面临健康每况愈下的问题。

When President Trump temporarily reduced tariffs this month on imports from China from the astronomical level that he had set in March, the stock market soared and economists said a recession was now less likely.

特朗普总统本月暂时降低了他在3月设定的对中国进口商品的天价关税，股市随之飙升，经济学家表示，经济衰退的可能性现在降低了。

But the emergency is not over for small-business owners like Carina Hamel and Robby Ringer who import products from China.

但是对于像卡里娜·哈梅尔和罗比·林格这样从中国进口产品的小企业主来说，紧急情况还没有结束。

Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer’s company, Bivo, sells stainless-steel water bottles with a patented nozzle that allows users — think thirsty cyclists — to gulp drinks quickly. Before Mr. Trump’s tariffs threatened the company’s existence, the founders said, the nearly five-year-old business, run out of a former corset factory in Richmond, Vt., was growing fast and close to becoming profitable.

哈梅尔和林格的公司Bivo销售带有专利喷嘴的不锈钢水瓶，可以让使用者——比如口渴的骑行者——快速地大口喝水。两位创始人说，在特朗普的关税威胁到公司的生存之前，这家成立近五年的公司增长迅速，已经接近盈利，公司位于佛蒙特州里士满一家原来生产紧身胸衣的旧工厂里。

The drop in tariffs this month to 30 percent from 145 percent on most Chinese goods was a relief but in the way that a flood is better than a tsunami. “Six weeks ago, 30 percent would have shocked the world and been appalling and hard to deal with — and it is now,” Mr. Ringer said.

本月，大多数中国商品的关税从145%降至30%，这让人松了一口气，但那更像是觉得洪水总比海啸强。林格说：“六周前，30%的关税会震惊世界，令人目瞪口呆，难以应对——可现在就是30%。”

The duties on Bivo’s bottles are higher than 30 percent because of the material they’re made from and how they are classified by trade officials. Bivo bottles that are not insulated are subject to tariffs that add up to 47 percent, and the rate for insulated bottles is 37 percent.

由于制造Bivo水瓶的材料以及贸易官员对它们的分类方式，Bivo水瓶面临的关税高于30%。不保温的Bivo水瓶总共面临47%的关税，保温水瓶的关税为37%。

Mr. Trump has frequently said foreign businesses that ship products to the United States pay the tariffs. But, in reality, importers like Bivo pay the duties to the federal government when goods arrive at a U.S. port.

特朗普经常声称关税由将产品运往美国的外国企业支付。但实际上，是Bivo这样的进口商在货物抵达美国港口时向联邦政府支付关税。

“It’s still a massive impact to the cash, and it still requires reworking a whole new strategy,” Mr. Ringer said.

“这仍然会对现金产生巨大的影响，仍然需要重新制定一个全新的战略，”林格说。

Bivo now estimates sales to be 30 percent lower than it previously expected, in large part because many retailers, which buy around two-thirds of its bottles, are buying less outdoor gear as they try to navigate their way through economic uncertainty.

目前，Bivo估计的销售额比之前的预期低了30%，这在很大程度上是因为许多零售商（它们购买了Bivo约三分之二的产品）为应对经济的不确定性，减少了对户外装备的采购。

Mr. Trump’s tariffs are weighing on businesses of all sizes. Walmart’s chief executive said this month that the giant retailer probably would not be able to “absorb all the pressure” from the tariffs.

特朗普的关税正在给各种规模的企业带来压力。沃尔玛首席执行官本月表示，这家大型零售商可能无法“消化”关税带来的“所有压力”。

Tariffs pose even bigger risks to small businesses. They typically don’t have the deep financial reserves needed to weather economic problems, the heft to demand lower prices from suppliers and the sway to lobby the government for exemptions from tariffs, said Ebehi Iyoha, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School.

关税给小企业带来的风险更大。哈佛商学院助理教授艾贝希·伊约哈说，小企业通常没有抵御经济问题所需的雄厚资金储备，没有要求供应商降低价格的实力，也没有游说政府免除关税的影响力。

“We should generally expect small businesses to be more vulnerable to trade shocks than large businesses,” Professor Iyoha said.

伊约哈说：“我们通常应该预料到，小企业比大企业更容易受到贸易冲击。”

The National Federation of Independent Business, an association that represents small businesses, regularly surveys its members about how their businesses are doing. In April, its members’ expectations for future sales declined for the fourth month in a row. In a note accompanying the survey results, the federation said millions of small businesses “acquire imported goods as inputs to their operations, and those supply chains are currently at risk.”

代表小企业的全国独立企业联合会定期对其成员的企业经营情况进行调查。今年4月，该协会成员对未来销售的预期连续第四个月下降。在调查结果附带的一份说明中，该联合会表示，数以百万计的小企业“购买进口商品作为其运营的投入，这些供应链目前处于危险之中”。

特朗普政府坚称关税是由外国公司支付的，但实际上，向美国海关支付关税的是Bivo这样的进口商，这使它们的业务十分紧张。今年4月，来自中国的产品关税攀升至145%，Bivo 不得不停止进口，因为它没有现金支付关税。

The United States imported goods worth $439 billion from China last year, and many businesses — including Bivo — say they cannot get their products anywhere else any time soon.

去年，美国从中国进口了价值4390亿美元的商品，包括Bivo在内的许多企业表示，他们短期内无法从其他地方获得产品。

Things might have been a lot worse for Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer, who are married and live a few doors from Bivo’s offices in Richmond, a trailhead town on the Winooski River.

对于哈梅尔和林格来说，情况可能要糟糕得多。这对夫妇目前住在离Bivo公司位于里士满——维诺斯基河畔的一个山脚小镇——的办公室几步之遥的地方。

Expecting strong demand for their bottles, they had imported roughly 50,000 from China days before Mr. Trump first imposed his tariffs this year. “Dumb luck,” Mr. Ringer said.

他们预计会有强劲的需求，在特朗普今年首次征收关税的几天前，他们从中国进口了大约5万个水瓶。“纯属误打误撞，”林格说。

But when tariffs climbed to 145 percent, Bivo had to effectively stop importing because it did not have the cash to pay the duties. But it had committed to buying 30,000 more bottles from Haers, its supplier in Yongkang, China.

但是，当关税攀升到145%时，Bivo不得不停止进口，因为它没有现金支付关税。但该公司已经向中国永康的供应商哈尔斯下了3万个水瓶的订单。

Ms. Hamel, Mr. Ringer and their six full-time employees snapped into survival mode.

哈梅尔、林格和他们的六名全职员工迅速进入了生存模式。

Ms. Hamel went to Europe to see if the company could sell its bottles there, but she realized it would take too long to quickly sell many bottles there. During the trip, Ms. Hamel was at her lowest point since the tariffs were introduced. “I still feel super optimistic we can make it through this,” she said from England, “but I think it’s going to be really freaking hard.”

哈梅尔前往欧洲，看看公司能否在那里销售，但她意识到，要在那里快速销售很多水瓶需要的时间太长了。在那次出差中，哈梅尔尔的心情跌到了关税出台以来的最低点。“我仍然非常乐观，我们能挺过去，”她在英国说，“但我认为会非常困难。”

She did make some inroads. A German outdoor gear retailer said it would start selling Bivo’s bottles, and Ms. Hamel found a warehouse in the Netherlands where the company could ship its bottles from China for distribution in Europe.

她的确取得了一些进展。一家德国户外用品零售商说，它将开始销售Bivo的水瓶，哈梅尔在荷兰找到了一个仓库，公司可以把水瓶从中国运到那里，然后再销往欧洲各地。

After Ms. Hamel returned home, Mr. Ringer went to China to plead for better terms from Haers. Though the supplier would not cut the cost of the bottles, it did give Mr. Ringer more time to pay for them, offering Bivo some financial breathing room.

哈梅尔回国后，林格前往中国，向哈尔斯争取更好的条件。供应商没有降低水瓶的价格，但给了林格更多的时间来付款，为Bivo提供了一些财务上的喘息空间。

Haers did not respond to a request for comment.

哈尔斯没有回应置评请求。

When he was in China, Mr. Ringer asked to see Bivo’s products in the warehouse, which is something he has done before to check manufacturing quality. But this time, he had to clamber over pallets in the aisles to see the bottles. The warehouse was crammed full of goods that customers had delayed shipping to avoid paying the 145 percent tariffs.

在中国的时候，林格要求去仓库看看Bivo的产品，这是他以前检查制造质量的时候经常这样做的。但这一次，他不得不爬过过道上的托盘才能看到瓶子。仓库里堆满了顾客为了避免支付145%的关税而推迟发货的货物。

On May 12, when Mr. Trump reduced tariffs on China for 90 days, Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer concluded that they could now afford to pay the tariffs on a small shipment — 7,624 of the 30,000 bottles they had promised to buy. They will pay $24,436 in duties on the shipment, compared with an estimated $3,645 at the rates that existed before Mr. Trump took office, according to their calculations.

5月12日，当特朗普将对中国的关税下调90天时，哈梅尔和林格断定，他们现在有能力支付一小批货物的关税——他们承诺购买的3万个水瓶中的7624个。根据他们的计算，他们将为这批货物支付24436美元的关税，而按照特朗普上任前的税率计算，这批货物的关税约为3645美元。

Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer said they were not planning to increase prices on the bottles, which sell for $34 to $54. Bivo pays roughly $8 per bottle, before tariffs, and sells them to wholesalers for around $20.

哈梅尔和林格说，他们不打算提高每个水瓶的价格——34美元到54美元之间。Bivo每个水瓶的采购价格约为8美元（不含关税），然后以20美元左右的价格卖给批发商。

Critics of tariffs say they hurt entrepreneurs like Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer. The two had come up with the idea for a stainless-steel bottle for athletes in 2019 while cross-country skiing on Mount Hood in Oregon, after noticing most sports water bottles were invariably plastic. They have put $500,000 in personal savings into Bivo and used their house as collateral for a line of credit for the business.

关税的批评者说，关税伤害了哈梅尔和林格这样的企业家。2019年，两人在俄勒冈州胡德山越野滑雪时发现，大多数运动水瓶都是塑料的，于是想到了为运动员设计不锈钢水瓶的想法。他们把50万美元的个人积蓄投入了Bivo，并以自己的房子作为抵押，获得了创业的信贷额度。

Supporters of the tariffs, however, say China has subsidized many industries, including steel and aluminum mills, giving the country’s manufacturers an unfair advantage over businesses elsewhere. Mr. Trump and his aides have exhorted American businesses to move production to the United States.

然而，关税的支持者表示，中国对包括钢铝厂在内的许多行业进行了补贴，使该国的制造商相对于其他国家的企业获得了不公平的优势。特朗普及其助手敦促美国企业将生产转移到美国。

Bivo has considered making bottles in the United States but determined that would push up the cost of manufacturing to at least $50 each. Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer said that, without significant government support, many businesses would not be able to shift production to the United States.

Bivo曾考虑在美国生产水瓶，但认为这会将制造成本推高至每个水瓶至少50美元。哈梅尔和林格说，如果没有政府的大力支持，许多企业将无法将生产转移到美国。

“It’s not laid out to set up U.S. manufacturing,” Mr. Ringer said about Mr. Trump’s tariff policy. “It is only laid out to, in theory, punish China, when it’s really also punishing U.S. businesses.”

“这不是为了建立美国制造业，”林格在谈到特朗普的关税政策时说。“只是——在理论上——惩罚中国，实际上也在惩罚美国企业。”

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, watched the country’s newest 5,000-ton destroyer capsize during its launch last week in an embarrassing military failure. Experts say a technique used to maneuver the ship into the water sideways was part of the problem.

上周，朝鲜领导人金正恩眼睁睁看着朝鲜最新的5000吨级驱逐舰在下水过程中倾覆，这是一次令人尴尬的军事失败。专家称，一种可以令船只侧滑下水的技术是导致事故的原因之一。

It was the first time analysts had observed North Korea using the sideways launch for warships and pointed to a lack of experience, as well as political pressure from Mr. Kim for quick results, for the mishap. Three shipyard officials, including the chief shipyard engineer, and a senior munitions official have been arrested, the official Korean Central News Agency reported, after Mr. Kim called the capsizing a criminal act.

这是分析人士第一次观察到朝鲜使用侧滑下水的方法，他们指出，朝鲜缺乏经验以及金正恩要求速成的政治压力是造成这次事故的原因。朝鲜官方的朝鲜中央通讯社报道称，在金正恩称翻船事件为犯罪行为后，包括造船厂总工程师在内的三名造船厂官员和一名负责弹药的高官已被逮捕。

Satellite imagery from three days before the accident showed the 470-foot-long vessel, the biggest class of warships Pyongyang has ever built, on top of a launch ramp. About 40 meters from the ship, a structure that appeared to be a viewing area and likely where Mr. Kim was stationed during the incident, was under construction.

事故发生前三天的卫星图像显示，这艘平壤有史以来建造的最大型军舰长约140米，位于一个下水斜坡的顶部。在距离该舰约40米处，有一个似乎是观察区的建筑正在施工，事故发生时金正恩很可能就在这里。

The destroyer was assembled in Chongjin, a port city on North Korea’s northeastern coast, which is known for producing smaller vessels, such as cargo ships and fishing boats. In a report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research institute in Washington, analysts said the shipyard “undoubtedly” lacked expertise in manufacturing and launching large warships.

这艘驱逐舰是在朝鲜东北沿海的港口城市清津组装的，清津以生产货船和渔船等小型船只闻名。在华盛顿研究机构战略与国际研究中心发布的一份报告中，分析人士表示，该造船厂“无疑”缺乏制造和发射大型军舰的专业知识。

The ill-fated warship was assessed by analysts to be the same size and configuration as the Choe Hyon guided missile destroyer, the North’s first destroyer and the most powerful surface ship the country has ever built. That vessel is the pride of Mr. Kim’s ambitious plan to modernize and expand his Soviet-era naval fleet, and was the centerpiece of a grand christening ceremony last month in Nampo, a west coast port near Pyongyang.

据分析人士估计，这艘命运多舛的军舰与朝鲜建造的第一艘驱逐舰——也是该国建造的最强大的水面舰艇——崔贤级导弹驱逐舰的大小和配置相同。

State media footage showed an elaborate event with confetti and fireworks that was attended by Mr. Kim and his daughter, Kim Ju-ae. A large viewing platform was set up near the Choe Hyun, which was already afloat in the water.

官方媒体的镜头显示，金正恩和女儿金主爱出席了一场精心策划的活动，现场撒满了彩纸和烟花。在已经漂浮在水面上的崔贤级导弹驱逐舰附近搭建了一个大型观景台。

That launch went smoothly, according to state media. Engineers used a technique common for large and heavy vessels. They appear to have built the Choe Hyun inside a roofed construction hall in Nampo, brought it out on a floating dry dock and then set it afloat by letting water into the dry dock, said Choi Il, a retired South Korean Navy captain.

据官方媒体报道，那次下水进展顺利。工程师们使用了一种大型和重型船只常用的技术。韩国退役海军上校崔日（音）说，他们似乎是在南浦的一个有屋顶的工棚里建造了崔贤级导弹驱逐舰，把它抬到一个浮动干船坞上，然后把水放进干船坞，让它漂浮起来。

But the shipyard in Chongjin didn’t have a dry dock large enough to build a Choe Hyun-class destroyer nor an incline to slide the ship stern first into the water. Engineers built the ship on the quay under a netting. When it was completed, they had to launch it sideways off the platform.

但是清津造船厂没有足以建造崔贤级导弹驱逐舰级别的驱逐舰的干船坞，也没有能让舰尾先滑入水中的斜面。工程师们在有施工网的码头上建造了这艘船。完工后，他们不得不将其侧向推下平台。

When properly executed, the vessel glides down the slipway lengthwise and briefly plunges into the water, like this 3,500-ton USS Cleveland warship did in Wisconsin in 2023.

如果操作得当，这艘船会沿着船台侧向滑行，瞬间落入水中，就像3500吨的美国海军克利夫兰号2023年在威斯康星州所做的那样。

Often a tugboat is stationed nearby to assist after the launch.

下水后，通常会有一艘拖船在附近协助。

But when engineers tried to push the North Korean destroyer into the water, it lost its balance, state media said. Satellite imagery taken two days after the accident showed the ship covered in blue tarp and lying on its right side. The bow was stuck on the ramp as the stern jutted into the harbor. The viewing platform had been removed.

但据官方媒体报道，当工程师试图将朝鲜驱逐舰推入水中时，船失去了平衡。事故发生两天后拍摄的卫星图像显示，这艘船被蓝色防水布覆盖，右侧在水中。船头卡在斜坡上，船尾滑入了港口。观景台已被拆除。

Launching big ships sideways requires delicate balancing work, said Mr. Choi, the retired South Korean Navy captain. The heavy weapons mounted on the destroyer could have made the task even more difficult, he added.

韩国退役海军上校崔日说，让大型船只侧向下水需要精细的平衡工作。他还说，驱逐舰上的重型武器可能会进一步增加难度。

A few days after the first Choe Hyun-class destroyer was launched last month, Mr. Kim proudly watched it test-fire various missiles. He has visited shipyards to exhort engineers to meet his timetable for naval expansion and appears to have planned to launch the second destroyer with similar fanfare and weapons tests.

崔贤级驱逐舰首舰上个月下水几天后，金正恩自豪地观看了它试射各种导弹。他参观了造船厂，敦促工程师按照他的时间表扩充海军，并似乎计划在第二艘下水时也进行类似大张旗鼓的庆祝和武器测试。

Engineers at Chongjin, who worked with less developed facilities than their peers in Nampo, must have felt enormous pressure after the successful launch in Nampo, South Korean analysts said. That might have led them to cut corners, they said.

韩国分析人士表示，与南浦的同行相比，清津的工程师在南浦下水成功后一定感到了巨大的压力。他们说，这可能导致他们去走一些捷径。

North Korea has said that it can restore the ship’s balance by pumping out the seawater. In another 10 days or so, it could repair the ship’s side damaged in the accident, according to state media.

朝鲜表示可以通过抽出海水来恢复这艘船的平衡。据中国官方媒体报道，再过10天左右，朝鲜就可以修复在事故中受损的那一侧船体。

But the damage looked worse than the country claimed, said Yang Uk, an expert on the North Korean military at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. The accident may be due not only to a defective sideways launching system but also to the ship’s structural imbalance, he said.

但首尔峨山政策研究所的朝鲜军事问题专家杨武（音）表示，损失看起来比朝鲜声称的要严重。他说，事故可能不仅是由于有缺陷的侧滑下水系统，而且是由于船舶的结构不平衡。

“The ship looks a bit twisted after the accident,” he said. “It doesn’t appear to have been built with the structural strength required for a warship.”

“事故发生后，船体看上去有些扭曲，”他说。“它的结构强度似乎不符合军舰的要求。”

Tariffs are up. Tariffs are down. Shipping is frozen. Shipping is back on.

关税涨了又降。航运停了又恢复。

In the past several weeks, Chinese imports to the U.S. have been on a seesaw, leaving Americans uncertain how tariffs will affect their lives.

在过去的几周里，中国对美国的出口如过山车般波动，让美国民众不确定关税将如何影响他们的生活。

It’s impossible to say what tariffs will do to the price or availability of any particular item, although even the Trump administration’s current level of 30 percent tariffs — on top of previous levies — will certainly make many things more expensive.

虽然难以精确预测具体商品的价格波动与供应情况，但即便不考虑既往关税，仅特朗普政府当前加征的30%的关税就必然推高诸多商品价格。

But thanks to detailed trade data, we know what Americans buy from China, and how much of it, and thus what might be most sensitive to future swings in trade status.

不过，借助详细的贸易数据，我们得以了解美国人从中国买了什么，买了多少，从而判断哪些领域最容易受贸易政策波动冲击。

Here are several ways of understanding what’s on those container ships, based on 2024 data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.

根据美国国际贸易委员会2024年的数据，我们可透过以下几种方式解析这些集装箱船上的货物构成。

First, the products where the greatest share of our imports are Chinese imports:

首先，我们来看看中国进口占比最高的商品类别：

This list is the simplest way to think about which Chinese goods the U.S. relies on most. But percentages aren’t everything. Americans buy so much from China that even goods with smaller imported shares from there could still be significantly affected by tariffs.

这份清单最直观地体现了美国对哪些中国商品依赖最深。但百分比并不代表一切。美国人从中国购买了如此多的商品，即便占比较小的商品也可能受到关税的严重影响。

This list skews slightly toward more expensive goods that the average American purchases infrequently, particularly electronics. But the International Trade Commission also tracks how many of each good the U.S. imports.

这份清单稍微偏向于美国人不常购买的昂贵商品，尤其是电子产品。但美国国际贸易委员会也会追踪每种商品的进口数量。

In that list, you can see Americans’ well-documented reliance on China for plastic products.

通过这张清单，你可以看到美国人对中国塑料产品的依赖。

Many of America’s major imports from China are consumer goods: things you buy for yourself, like clothes, housewares or entertainment. Drill down into those categories and specific products stand out.

美国从中国进口的主要商品中有许多是消费品：比如衣服、家庭用品或娱乐用品等自用商品。深入研究这些类别，会发现一些特定产品显得尤为突出。

For example, American wardrobes are somewhat dependent on China: about a fifth of U.S. clothing imports. But a majority of neckties and gloves and pantyhose are imported from China.

例如，美国人的衣橱在某种程度上依赖中国制造：美国大约五分之一的服装从中国进口。但在领带、手套和连裤袜等细分类别，中国产品占比超过半数。

The U.S. is more reliant on China for things made with polyester and nylon (like pantyhose) than for those made with cotton.

美国对中国聚酯和尼龙制品（如连裤袜）的依赖程度高于棉质制品。

Athletes, especially racket-sport players, are also dependent on China:

体育用品，尤其是球拍类体育装备，也依赖中国。

There are also consumer-goods categories whose “Made in China” status may not be as well known. For example, the U.S. gets a lot of its imported string instruments — such as violins and cellos — from China.

还有一些消费品类别的“中国制造”地位可能不那么为人所知。例如，美国进口的小提琴、大提琴等弦乐器大量产自中国。

The Japanese company Yamaha manufactures some of its instruments in China, including trumpets and drums.

日本雅马哈公司将一些乐器的生产线放在中国，包括小号和鼓。

The U.S. also relies on China for many of its vitamins …

美国的许多维生素也依赖中国。

… and eels. (China has a robust eel farming industry.)

……还有鳗鱼。（中国的鳗鱼养殖业非常发达。）

Then there are the goods that the U.S. imports primarily to put inside other things, like car parts.

再有，美国进口的商品主要用来装在其他东西里，比如汽车零部件。

The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports to build electric vehicles in particular: Some 70 percent of its imported lithium-ion batteries are from China.

美国在电动汽车制造领域严重依赖中国进口：大约70%的进口锂离子电池来自中国。

Even batteries made in the U.S. often rely on raw materials from China, particularly graphite. (China tightened its export controls on graphite at the end of last year, so this year’s numbers could end up looking very different.)

即使是美国制造的电池也常常依赖中国的原材料，尤其是石墨。（中国在去年底收紧了对石墨的出口管制，因此今年的数据可能会有很大不同。）

Mr. Trump’s newest tariffs are not the only levies imposed on Chinese goods, and there’s a complicated interplay of which tariffs apply to which products. Some goods that a lot of Americans buy received exemptions from the latest tariffs (though perhaps not future ones), including one item the U.S. imports almost exclusively from China: children’s books.

特朗普的最新关税并非针对中国商品的唯一征税举措，而且哪种关税适用于哪种产品存在复杂的相互作用。很多美国人购买的一些商品在最新的关税中获得了豁免（尽管未来可能未必），其中包括一种美国几乎完全从中国进口的商品：童书。

That’s a window into what Americans buy from China. But for some imports, the U.S. doesn’t rely on China. It’s a list that includes large vehicles, precious metals and tomatoes, all of which America imports largely from other countries.

这是了解美国人从中国购买什么的一个窗口。但某些进口商品，美国并不依赖中国。这份清单包括大型汽车、贵金属和西红柿，美国主要从其他国家进口这些产品。

It’s also worth noting what America exports to China. Though the U.S. sends fewer goods to China than it receives, these could still be affected in a trade war. (China has been instituting its own exemptions, which are broader than those of the U.S.)

美国对中国的出口也值得注意。尽管美国向中国出口的商品少于进口的商品，但这些商品仍可能受到贸易战的影响。（中国一直在制定自己的豁免政策，其范围比美国更广。）

President Trump and some members of Congress want to revive a depleted American shipbuilding industry to compete with China, the world’s biggest maker of ships by far.

美国总统特朗普和部分国会议员想重振日渐衰落的美国造船业，让其与全球目前最大的船舶制造国中国竞争。

It is such a daunting goal that some shipping experts say it is destined to fail. More hopeful analysts and industry executives say the Trump administration and Congress could succeed but only if they are willing to spend billions of dollars over many years.

这个目标如此艰巨，以至于一些航运专家完全不看好。也有乐观的分析师和业内高管认为，特朗普政府和国会有成功的可能，但前提是他们愿意在未来持续多年投入数十亿美元的资金。

One of the places where Washington’s maritime dreams might take shape or fall apart is a shipyard on the southern edge of Philadelphia that was bought last year by one of the world’s largest shipbuilding companies, a South Korean conglomerate known as Hanwha.

位于费城南郊的一家造船厂也许是美国政府的海事梦想可能成真也可能破灭的地点之一，全球最大的造船公司之一、韩国的韩华集团已在去年收购了这家造船厂。

“The shipbuilding industry in America is ready to step up,” David Kim, the chief executive of Hanwha Philly Shipyard, said in an interview.

“美国造船业已为重振雄风做好了准备，”韩华费城造船厂的首席执行官戴维·金在接受采访时说。

But to do that, he said, the yard must have a steady stream of orders for new vessels. And the federal government will need policies that subsidize American-built ships and penalize the use of foreign vessels by shipping companies that call on U.S. ports.

但要实现复兴，造船厂需要有源源不断的新船订单，他说。而且，联邦政府需要出台政策为在美国造船提供补贴，同时惩罚使用外国船只的航运公司在美国港口停靠。

Last month, Mr. Trump issued an executive order aimed at revitalizing American shipbuilding. “We’re going to be spending a lot of money on shipbuilding,” he said when announcing the order. “We’re way, way, way behind.”

上个月，特朗普签署了一项旨在振兴美国造船业的行政命令。“我们将对造船业投入重金，”他在宣布行政命令时说。“我们太、太、太落后了。”

The Office of the United States Trade Representative set new rules in April that penalize Chinese ships and require that certain commercial vessels be built in the United States. In Congress, lawmakers from both parties are pushing a sprawling bill that contains significant subsidies to bolster American shipbuilding.

美国贸易代表办公室今年4月出台新规，惩罚中国船舶，并强制要求特定商用船舶必须在美国本土建造。在国会，两党议员正在推动一个包罗万象的法案，其中包含提振美国造船业的巨额补贴。

But there is much to overcome.

但仍有许多挑战需要克服。

The Philadelphia yard won’t have space for new orders until 2027, and other American shipyards are so tied up with filling orders for the Navy that they don’t have the capacity to produce commercial vessels.

费城造船厂的新订单排期已至2027年，其他美国造船厂因为海军订单而饱和，无力承接商用船舶的建造。

It takes far longer to build ships in the United States than in Asia, and costs nearly five times as much. The Philadelphia yard makes roughly a ship and a half a year, compared with around a ship a week at Hanwha’s larger facilities in its home country, Mr. Kim said.

在美国造船需要的时间远超亚洲，成本更是后者的近五倍。据金介绍，费城这家造船厂每年的产能大约是1.5艘，而韩华在韩国的大型造船厂每周大约造出一艘船。

But the company would bring methods, like automated welding, he added, to speed up production at the roughly 115-acre yard in Philadelphia. Mr. Kim declined to say how much the company intended to invest in its U.S. shipyard, which it bought for $100 million.

但他还说，公司将把新方法引进到占地面积约46公顷的费城造船厂，比如自动化的焊接技术，以加快生产速度。韩华花了1亿美元收购该厂，金拒绝透露公司打算在这家美国造船厂投入多少资金。

Colin Grabow, an associate director at the Cato Institute, a research organization that favors fewer government regulations of business and the economy, said the shipbuilding push gave him an uneasy sense of déjà vu.

卡托研究所是一家主张减少政府对商业和经济监管的研究机构，该所副所长科林·格拉博说，造船业振兴计划让他有一种似曾相识的不安感。

Previous government efforts to encourage domestic shipbuilding largely failed, including an effort to produce more commercial vessels in Philadelphia after the closing of the naval base in the city in 1995. “We’ve been down this road before,” Mr. Grabow said.

美国政府此前推动本土造船业的努力大多以失败告终，包括政府1995年关闭了费城海军基地后，旨在提振当地商船制造的举措。“我们以前经历过这些，”格拉博说。

In addition to China, ships that transport goods to or from the United States are built in Japan, South Korea and other friendly countries. These vessels are typically owned and operated by global shipping companies, many of them based in Europe and Asia.

除了在中国制造外，往来美国的货轮也在日本、韩国以及其他友邦制造。这些船通常由全球航运公司拥有和运营，其中许多公司把总部设在欧洲和亚洲。

But as Chinese commercial vessel production soared in recent years, lawmakers in Washington became concerned that China was gaining a nearly unassailable strategic advantage.

但随着中国商用船只产量近年来飙升，华盛顿的立法者们担心中国正在获得几乎无法摧毁的战略优势。

“It’s just become a stampede,” said Michael Roberts, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative research group that favors government backing for American shipbuilding.

“这简直是个势不可挡的浪潮，”支持政府扶持美国造船业的保守派研究机构哈德逊研究所的高级研究员迈克尔·罗伯茨说。

韩华费城造船厂的首席执行官戴维·金说，公司将引进自动焊接等方法，以加快生产速度。

In the last 10 years, Chinese shipbuilders delivered 6,765 commercial ships, nearly half of global deliveries, according to data from BRS Shipbrokers. Japan delivered 3,130, South Korea 2,405 and the United States just 37.

据BRS船舶经纪公司的数据，过去10年里，中国造船企业总共交付了6765艘商用船只，几乎占全球交付量的一半。日本交付了3130艘，韩国交付了2405艘，美国只交付了37艘。

The few American-made vessels that shipping lines do buy usually transport cargo solely between American ports. Under the Jones Act, a more-than-100-year-old law, such voyages can be served only by U.S.-built vessels.

航运公司购买为数不多的美国造的船通常只是为了在美国港口之间运输货物。根据一百多年前生效的《琼斯法案》，这类航运只能由美国制造的船舶运营。

An order for three Jones Act-compliant container ships, struck by the previous owner of the Philadelphia shipyard, cost around $330 million a vessel. A similar size ship built in Asia would cost about $70 million, said James Lightbourn, founder of Cavalier Shipping, a ship financing advisory firm.

费城造船厂以前的拥有者曾收到三个购买符合《琼斯法案》集装箱船的订单，每艘船的造价约为3.3亿美元。船舶融资咨询公司Cavalier Shipping的创始人詹姆斯·莱特伯恩指出，在亚洲造一艘类似载量的船，造价只约为7000万美元。

In their shipbuilding bill, Democratic and Republican lawmakers seek to address the cost difference by subsidizing shipping companies to put 250 American-made vessels operated with American crews into a “strategic commercial fleet.” The secretary of defense could call on the vessels for supply missions.

在两党议员的造船法案中，他们寻求通过为航运公司提供补贴来解决造船成本差异问题，办法是用250艘由美国制造、美国船员操作的船舶组建一支“战略商业船队”。国防部长能调用这些船舶执行补给任务。

Lawmakers hope that assembling such a fleet and other incentives will not only provide a steady stream of orders for American shipbuilders, but also help them grow and become more efficient.

议员们希望，组建这样一支船队以及相关激励措施，不仅将能为美国造船商们提供源源不断的订单，还能帮助它们发展壮大、提升效率。

Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat of Arizona and a sponsor of the legislation, described it as “the most ambitious effort in a generation to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding and commercial maritime industries, and counter China’s dominance over the ocean.”

亚利桑那州的联邦参议员、民主党人马克·凯利是该法案的发起人之一，他把法案描述为“一代人以来最雄心勃勃的努力，目的是振兴美国的造船业和商业海运业，对抗中国在海洋的主导地位”。

Critics of the bill contend that it would provide endless subsidies to high-cost shipbuilders. A better approach to countering China’s dominance, they say, would be to make up the strategic fleet with vessels made in Japan and South Korea, both U.S. allies and proven shipbuilders.

该法案的批评者认为，它将为高成本的造船厂提供没完没了的补贴。他们认为，对抗中国主导地位的更好办法是用日本和韩国造的船组建战略船队，这两国不仅造船技术成熟，更是可靠伙伴。

But Mr. Kim, the Hanwha executive, said many products, not just ships, cost more to make in the United States, and he added that outsourcing shipbuilding to other countries had contributed to the withering of American production.

但韩华集团高管金先生说，许多产品在美国制造的成本都更高，不只是船舶。他还表示，将造船业外包给其他国家已导致了美国制造业的萎缩。

“It’s not just about business,” he said. “It’s about the country, it’s about labor, and it’s about priorities and strategic decisions.”

“这不只是个商业问题，”他说，“这关乎国家，关乎劳动力，也关乎优先事项和战略决策。”

Washington’s grand designs for shipping include the tankers that carry liquefied natural gas, which are much more complex to manufacture than ships that carry containers. The Trump administration’s new shipping rules require that an increasing portion of these ships be built in the United States within several years.

华盛顿为航运业制定的宏图大略包括液化天然气运输船，这种船舶的制造难度远高于集装箱船。特朗普政府的新航运规则要求在未来几年里，美国建造的液化天然气运输船的比例必须不断提升。

Hanwha has produced 200 such vessels in South Korea, and Mr. Kim said the dry docks at the Philadelphia yard were big enough to accommodate certain L.N.G. carriers.

韩华集团在韩国已经制造了200艘液化天然气运输船，金表示，费城船厂的干船坞足够大，能制造某些液化天然气运输船。

But even if Hanwha successfully transfers its manufacturing expertise to the United States, it may struggle to find skilled workers. It is planning to double the size of its work force from 1,500 employees in less than 10 years, Kelly Whitaker, a spokeswoman for Hanwha Philly, said.

但即使韩华集团成功地将制造技术转移到美国，熟练工人的短缺仍是巨大挑战。韩华费城的发言人凯利·惠特克表示，公司计划在不到10年的时间里将员工人数从1500人增加到3000人。

Next year it wants to double the size of its apprentice class to 240 trainees. Niecey Zlomek, who moved to Philadelphia from Baltimore eight years ago, joined Hanwha Philly as an apprentice in January and is earning $22 an hour.

明年，公司打算将学徒班的招生规模翻一番，达到240名学员。尼西·兹洛梅克八年前从巴尔的摩搬到了费城，她已在今年1月加入韩华费城当学徒，工资是每小时22美元。

“This is probably the best job I’ve had since I’ve lived here,” she said. Ms. Zlomek has so far worked on three vessels, helping to install a bow thruster, a type of propulsion system, and a conveyance system for large rocks.

“这可能是我搬到这里后找到的最好工作，”她说。到目前为止，兹洛梅克已参与了三艘船的建造工作，协助安装船首推进器和大型石料运送系统。

Even when shipbuilders do manage to recruit workers, they have often struggle to keep them. Shipyards building naval vessels lose many of their first-year employees, Brett Seidle, an acting assistant secretary of the Navy, said at a congressional hearing in March.

即使造船厂找到了工人，往往也难以留住他们。海军代理助理部长布雷特·塞德尔在今年3月的国会听证会上说，建造海军舰艇的船厂每年招收的新员工中，许多人干了不到一年就走了。

The Trump administration and lawmakers favor policies aimed at training many more mariners to work on American-built vessels. The shipping bill would subsidize the cost of using more expensive U.S. crews.

特朗普政府和立法者们支持的政策还包括，培训更多在美国制造的船舶上工作的海员。拟议中的航运法案将为使用工资更高的美国船员提供补贴。

Roland Rexha, secretary-treasurer of the Marine Engineers’ Beneficial Association, a union for American maritime officers, said such policies were necessary. “As China subsidizes their industry completely,” he said, “we have to find a way to make incentivizing cargo a centerpiece to maritime revitalization.”

美国海事高级职员工会——海事工程师福利协会的秘书兼财务主管罗兰·雷克萨说，有必要制定此类政策。“由于中国对它的造船业提供全方位补贴，”他说，“我们不得不找到办法，把对货运的激励作为振兴海运业的核心。”

Mr. Rexha said being an officer on an American vessel serving international routes could be a lucrative, satisfying career. Officers make over $200,000 a year and can retire with a pension after 20 years. Though mariners are away for three months at a time, he said, they are at home for three-month spells. “You are focused on your family. You are focused on your children.”

雷克萨说，在一艘服务于国际航线的美国船舶上担任高级职员可能是一份收入丰厚、令人满意的职业。海事高级职员的年薪超过20万美元，工作20年就能拿养老金退休。他说，虽然海员每次出海的时间是三个月，但他们也能在家里住上三个月。“把精力都花在家庭上，花在孩子们身上。”

“I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,” President Trump told reporters on Sunday afternoon, just before boarding Air Force One for a short trip from his golf club in New Jersey to Washington. Hours later, he posted about the Russian leader, saying, “He has gone absolutely CRAZY.”

“我不知道普京到底怎么了，”特朗普总统周日下午对记者说，当时他登上“空军一号”，准备从他在新泽西州的高尔夫俱乐部启程前往华盛顿。几个小时后，他又在社交媒体上发文谈及这位俄罗斯领导人，“他已经彻底疯了。”

Mr. Trump’s rare criticism of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia came after a weekend of the largest bombardment of Ukrainian cities over the past three years, mostly aimed at civilian targets, from residential areas in Kyiv to university dormitories. The Russian attacks also happened only days after Mr. Trump had what he described publicly as an “excellent” two-hour phone call with Mr. Putin that Mr. Trump promised would immediately lead to direct peace negotiations.

在特朗普罕见地批评俄罗斯总统普京之前的一个周末，俄军对乌克兰城市发动过去三年来最大规模的轰炸，其中大部分针对平民目标，从基辅的居民区到大学宿舍都未能幸免。而就在空袭发生几天前，特朗普刚与普京进行了被他公开形容为“极好”的两小时通话，特朗普承诺那次通话后将立即开始直接的和平谈判。

Mr. Trump has long said he enjoys a “good relationship” with Mr. Putin, and it was not the first time he expressed shock that the Russian president was unleashing attacks on Ukrainian civilians. A month ago Mr. Trump wrote “Vladimir, STOP” as a barrage of missiles and drones hit Ukraine, including crowded playgrounds. But Mr. Trump has never linked the attacks with his own decision, reaffirmed last week, to refuse to join the Europeans in new financial sanctions on Russia, or to offer new arms and help to the Ukrainians.

虽长期标榜与普京“关系良好”，这也不是特朗普第一次对俄罗斯总统袭击乌克兰平民表示震惊。一个月前，在导弹和无人机袭击乌克兰，包括人满为患的游乐场时，特朗普曾写道：“弗拉基米尔，住手！”但他从未将这些袭击与他自己的决定联系起来，上周他再次重申，不会继续与欧洲一道对俄罗斯实施新的金融制裁，也不会向乌克兰人提供新的武器或援助。

The result is a strategic void in which Mr. Trump complains about Russia’s continued killing but so far has been unwilling to make Mr. Putin pay even a modest price.

由此形成的战略真空令人费解：特朗普一边谴责俄方持续杀戮，一边却至今不愿让普京付出哪怕最轻微的代价。

The pattern is a familiar one, several outside experts and former government officials said. Mr. Trump signals he is pulling back from a conflict he often describes as Europe’s war, then expresses shock that Mr. Putin responds with a familiar list of demands that amount to a Ukrainian surrender, followed by accelerating attacks. Mr. Trump episodically insists he is “absolutely” considering sanctions, including on Sunday.

多名外部专家和前政府官员指出，这都是老套路。先是特朗普表示他要退出这场他所谓“欧洲的战争”，然后普京提出一系列等同于让乌克兰投降的要求，并开始加强攻势，特朗普随即表示震惊。特朗普时不时会说他“绝对”在考虑制裁俄罗斯，这周日就是如此。

在周日晚的袭击中，乌军向俄军无人机开火。

Yet each time when he is forced to make a decision about joining Europe in new economic penalties, he has pulled back.

但每次当他必须决定是否与欧洲一起实施新的经济制裁时，他都选择退缩。

“Russia said no cease-fire and Trump is increasingly washing his hands of it,” Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consulting firm, wrote on Monday. The result is that “support for Ukraine continues to recede in importance for the Americans,” he added. Mr. Bremmer predicted that “what comes next is more fighting — expanded Russian attacks across Ukraine, fewer restraints on Ukraine targeting inside Russia.”

“俄罗斯拒绝停火，特朗普则越来越想置身事外，”地缘政治咨询公司欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默周一写道。他补充道，这导致“美国人越来越不在意对乌克兰的支持”。布雷默预测，“接下来将是更多的战斗——俄罗斯扩大对乌克兰全境的攻击，而乌军对俄境内目标的打击限制将减少。”

The latest cycle of this odd interaction between the American and Russian leaders happened just last week. Mr. Trump, who has made no secret of his desire for a summit meeting soon with Mr. Putin, declared that only he and the Russian leader had the power and influence to end the war. Yet by the time they were done talking in their call last week, Mr. Trump had changed his position, saying it was now up to Ukraine and Russia to end the war in direct negotiations.

美俄领导人这种诡异的互动模式上周再度上演：特朗普毫不掩饰渴望与普京会晤，他曾宣称唯有他与俄总统有能力结束战争；然而在上周的通话结束后，他却改口称应由俄乌通过直接谈判解决冲突。

In a subsequent conversation with the leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Finland, along with the European Commission, Mr. Trump had yet another view: Mr. Putin thought he was winning the war and would press his advantage. According to several officials briefed on the conversation, Mr. Trump made it clear he had no intention on putting pressure, much less harsh economic sanctions, on Russia.

在随后与德国、法国、意大利、芬兰及欧盟委员会领导人的通话中，特朗普又提出另一种观点：普京自认为胜券在握，将继续扩大优势。据多名听取了对话简报的官员透露，特朗普明确表示无意向俄罗斯施压，更不用说实施严厉经济制裁了。

“He said, essentially, ‘I’m out,’” said one of the officials, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to describe the conversation.

“他其实就是在说‘我不管了’，”一位因未被授权谈论此事而要求匿名的官员表示。

Mr. Trump, the official said, clearly meant that he was disengaging from the conflict in an echo of Vice President JD Vance’s public statement that “we’re more than open to walking away.” Mr. Trump also made clear that he was pulling back from a commitment he made just a few weeks earlier to the leaders of France, Germany and Britain to join an economic crackdown on Russia if it refused a cease-fire.

该官员称，特朗普的意思显然是要从这场冲突中抽身——这与副总统万斯公开宣称的“我们完全可以退出”如出一辙。特朗普还明确表示，他正在放弃几周前向法、德、英领导人作出的承诺：若俄罗斯拒绝停火，美国将加入对俄国的经济打击。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基本月上旬在阿尔巴尼亚与波兰、法国及英国领导人会晤。

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has not wanted to repeat the Oval Office blowup with Mr. Trump in February, has been careful not to criticize Mr. Trump, as he has veered between pleas to Mr. Putin to stop and refusals to pressure Russia. But in his own social media post on Monday, Mr. Zelensky pressed for more economic sanctions, writing that “only a feeling of total impunity can allow Russia to launch such strikes.”

乌克兰总统泽连斯基不想重蹈今年2月与特朗普在椭圆形办公室的争执，一直小心避免公开批评特朗普，尽管后者在呼吁普京停火与拒绝向俄罗斯施压之间反复摇摆。但在周一的社交媒体贴文中，泽连斯基再次呼吁实施更多经济制裁，他写道：“俄罗斯会发动这样的袭击，只能是因为它觉得自己有恃无恐。”

Mr. Trump himself has clearly hoped to get beyond the conflict, and just last week was musing about the possibilities for a normalization of relations with Moscow. “Russia wants to do large scale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘blood bath’ is over, and I agree,” he wrote after talking with Mr. Putin.

特朗普本人显然希望能摆脱这场冲突，就在上周，他还在思考与莫斯科关系正常化的可能性。“俄罗斯希望在这场灾难性的‘血腥屠杀’结束后与美国开展大规模贸易，我同意，”他在与普京交谈后写道。

Missing from Mr. Trump’s zigzags is any explanation of why he has been unable to use his relationship with Mr. Putin to persuade him to halt the violence, even for a 30-day cease-fire. When he was running for president, Mr. Trump often argued that Mr. Putin ignored Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Barack Obama during their presidencies because he didn’t “respect” them. Things would be different when he got into office, Mr. Trump said, arguing that he would end the war in “24 hours.” (He has since said the comment was sarcastic.)

在特朗普反复无常的表态中，他始终没有解释为何他无法利用与普京的关系说服对方停止暴力，哪怕是实现30天的停火。竞选总统时，特朗普经常声称普京在拜登和奥巴马执政期间无视他们，因为他“不尊重”他们。他当时表示，自己上任后情况将不同，并宣称能在“24小时内”结束战争（他后来称该言论是在反讽）。

On Sunday Mr. Trump's tone was different. “I’m not happy with what Putin is doing. He’s killing a lot of people,” he said. “I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin. I’ve known him a long time. Always gotten along with him, but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all.”

周日，特朗普的语气有所不同。“我对普京的所作所为感到不满。他在屠杀大量平民，”他说，“我不知道普京到底怎么了。我认识他很久了，一直相处不错，但他现在向城市发射火箭弹，杀人，我一点也不喜欢这样。”

Later he wrote that Mr. Putin’s ambitions were to retake all of Ukraine, contradicting what his chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, said two months ago in an interview with Tucker Carlson.

随后他写道，普京企图吞并整个乌克兰——这与他的首席谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫两月前接受塔克·卡尔森采访时所言截然相反。

“Why would they want to absorb Ukraine?” Mr. Witkoff asked Mr. Carlson in late March. “For what purpose, exactly? They don’t need to absorb Ukraine.”

“他们为什么要吞并乌克兰？”维特科夫3月底问卡尔森，“到底出于什么目的？他们不需要吞并乌克兰。”

2018年，特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京在芬兰赫尔辛基举行会晤。他曾多次吹嘘自己与俄罗斯领导人的交情与默契。

But on Sunday Mr. Trump wrote of Mr. Putin: “If he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”

但在周日，特朗普在谈到普京时写道：“若他一意孤行，将导致俄罗斯的崩溃！”

Dmitry Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, dismissed Mr. Trump’s statements about the Russian leader. He termed them an “emotional reaction.”

普京的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫驳斥了特朗普关于这位俄罗斯领导人的言论。他称之为一种“情绪化的反应”。

President Trump taunted China in his first term, claiming his tariffs had led to the loss of five million jobs there. In a 2019 tweet, he said his trade policies had put China “back on its heels.”

特朗普总统在第一个任期内曾嘲笑中国，声称他的关税导致中国失去了500万个工作岗位。在2019年的一条推文中，他表示，他的贸易政策让中国“陷入困境”。

Economists sharply disputed how much pain Mr. Trump’s tariffs caused, but the message underscored the centrality of jobs to China’s export-reliant economy.

经济学家对特朗普的关税造成了多大的痛苦提出了尖锐的质疑，但特朗普这番言论还是凸显了就业在依赖出口的中国经济中的核心地位。

Four months into Mr. Trump’s second term, the United States and China are again negotiating over tariffs, and the Chinese labor market, especially factory jobs, is front and center. This time, China’s economy is struggling, leaving its workers more vulnerable. A persistent property slowdown that got worse during the Covid-19 pandemic has wiped out jobs and made people feel poorer. New university graduates are pouring into the labor pool at a time when the unemployment rate among young workers is in the double digits.

特朗普第二任期开始四个月后，美国和中国再次就关税问题进行谈判，中国的劳动力市场，尤其是工厂的就业岗位，是谈判的焦点。这一次，中国经济举步维艰，工人的处境愈发窘迫。在新冠大流行期间，房地产市场持续放缓，情况变得更糟，导致就业机会消失，人们感到更加贫穷。年轻工人的失业率达到两位数，同时新的大学毕业生还在涌入劳动力市场。

“The situation is clearly much worse,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the investment bank Natixis.

“情况显然严重恶化了，”投资银行法国外贸银行亚太地区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗说。

As employment opportunities in other sectors disappear, she said, the importance of preserving China’s 100 million manufacturing jobs has grown.

她说，随着其他行业的就业机会消失，保护中国1亿制造业就业岗位的重要性与日俱增。

This month, Chinese and U.S. officials agreed to temporarily reduce the punishing tariffs they had imposed on each other while they tried to avert a return to an all-out trade war that would threaten to undermine both economies.

本月，中国和美国官员同意暂时减少对彼此征收的高额关税，同时试图避免重新爆发可能损害两国经济的全面贸易战。

In a research report, Natixis said that if U.S. tariffs stayed at their current levels of at least 30 percent, exports to the United States would fall by half, resulting in a loss of up to six million manufacturing jobs. If the trade war resumes again in full, the job losses could surge to nine million.

法国外贸银行在一份研究报告中表示，如果美国的关税保持在目前至少30%的水平，对美国的出口将减少一半，导致多达600万个制造业就业岗位流失。如果贸易战再次全面爆发，失业人数可能会飙升至900万人。

广州的招聘信息，这里是中国许多制衣厂的所在地。

China’s economy has struggled to recover from the pandemic, expanding more slowly than in the years of Mr. Trump’s first term, when growth was more than 6 percent a year. Although the Chinese government has said it is targeting growth of around 5 percent this year, many economists have predicted that the actual figure will not reach those levels.

中国经济一直在努力从疫情中复苏，其增长速度比特朗普第一个任期的几年还要慢，当时的年增长率超过6%。尽管中国政府表示，今年的增长目标是5%左右，但许多经济学家预测，实际数字将达不到这一水平。

In early 2018, China said its urban jobless rate had fallen to 15-year lows and the country had created a record number of new jobs. Since then, government crackdowns and tighter regulations have subdued industries like technology and online education — once-thriving sectors that created heaps of new jobs.

2018年初，中国表示，城镇失业率降至15年来的最低水平，新增就业岗位创造了记录。从那以后，政府的严厉打击和更严格的监管压制了科技和在线教育等曾经繁荣的行业，这些行业创造了大量新的就业机会。

Over those years, unemployment climbed especially among young people. The jobless rate among 16-to-24-year-olds was 15.8 percent in April, an improvement from the previous month. However, the figure is expected to surge again when 12 million new college graduates join the work force this year.

失业率在此后数年里攀升，尤其是年轻人的失业率。4月，16至24岁年轻人的失业率为15.8%，较上月有所改善。然而，随着今年1200万应届大学毕业生加入劳动力大军，这一数字预计将再次飙升。

In 2023, when youth unemployment figures reached a record 21.3 percent, the Chinese government suspended the release of the figures. At the time, one prominent economist claimed that the actual figure was closer to 50 percent. Beijing started distributing the figures again last year with a new methodology that lowered the jobless rate.

2023年，当青年失业率达到创纪录的21.3%时，中国政府暂停了数据的发布。当时，一位著名的经济学家称实际数字接近50%。中国政府去年开始重新发布这些数据，采用了降低失业率的新统计方法。

At the same time, even those with jobs are in a more precarious position. Fewer companies are offering full-time employment, turning instead to gig workers for services like food delivery and manufacturing. While those jobs offer workers more flexibility, they usually pay less and provide few job protections or benefits.

与此同时，即使是那些有工作的人，处境也更加岌岌可危。提供全职工作的公司越来越少，取而代之的是送餐等服务和制造业的零工。虽然这些工作为员工提供了更大的灵活性，但工资通常较低，而且几乎不提供就业保障或福利。

The United States, for its part, has its own liabilities. American industry is deeply dependent on rare earth metals and critical minerals controlled largely by China, while a halt in Chinese goods heightens inflation risk and could contribute to disruptive product shortages.

美国也有自己的问题。美国工业严重依赖主要由中国控制的稀土金属和关键矿产，而中国商品的停止供应增加了通胀风险，并可能导致破坏性的产品短缺。

If the negotiations boil down to which country is able to withstand more economic hardship, China has an advantage in “trade war endurance,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London research firm focused on China. Beijing can tamp down discontent over labor market shocks more readily than American politicians can withstand anger over empty store shelves, she said.

专注于中国的伦敦研究公司伊诺多经济(Enodo Economics)的首席经济学家戴安·乔伊列娃说，如果谈判最终取决于哪个国家能够承受更大的经济困难，中国在“贸易战耐力”方面具有优势。她说，北京可以更轻易地平息对劳动力市场冲击的不满，而美国政界人士却无法承受民众对商店货架空无一物的愤怒。

According to official data, in April, before the United States and China agreed to suspend the heaviest tariffs, new export orders from China fell to their lowest level since 2022. Even over a one-month period, the sky-high tariffs took a toll on employment.

根据官方数据，在美国和中国同意暂停征收最高关税之前的4月，中国的新出口订单降至2022年以来的最低水平。即使在一个月的时间里，高昂的关税也对就业造成了影响。

In Guangzhou, the center of China’s garment industry, businesses had closed as orders from foreign buyers dropped before the ultrahigh tariffs were paused. Many said the drop in orders forced them to hire fewer workers.

在中国服装工业中心广州，由于外国买家的订单减少，在超高关税暂停之前，企业已经纷纷关闭。许多公司表示，订单的减少迫使他们减少了员工数量。

中国烟台的招聘会。目前青年失业率高达两位数，同时每年有数以百万计的新大学毕业生进入劳动力市场。

Jane Hu, an office worker in Shanghai, said she lost her job last month, not because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, but from China’s countermeasure to raise duties on American imports to 125 percent.

上海的办公室职员简·胡（音）说，她上个月丢了工作，不是因为特朗普的关税，而是因为中国将美国进口商品的关税提高到125%的反制措施。

She said her former employer, a construction equipment company that had depended on bringing machinery into China from the United States, could not afford the tariffs, which more than doubled the costs of imports.

她说，她的前雇主是一家依靠从美国向中国进口机械的建筑设备公司，该公司无法承受使进口成本增加了一倍多的关税。

This compounded problems the business was already facing because of the property slowdown. Sales declined about 40 percent, making layoffs unavoidable.

由于房地产市场放缓，这家公司本已面临问题，如今情况变得更加复杂。销售额下降了约40%，裁员在所难免。

At 33, Ms. Hu is worried she has too much experience for entry-level positions. Many companies are hesitant to hire women like her who are married without children because they do not want to have to potentially cover the cost of parental leave, she said. Women in her age group have a saying, she said: “We are old and expensive. Why would any company choose us?”

33岁的胡女士担心，她的资历对于初级职位来说显得过高。她说许多公司不愿雇佣像她这样已婚没有孩子的女性，因为他们不想承担产假的潜在代价。她说，她这个年龄段的女性有一种说法：“我们又老又贵，企业凭什么要你？”

She said she had landed only two job interviews. To bring in additional income, Ms. Hu started driving occasionally for ride-hailing services.

她说，她只得到过两次面试机会。为了赚取额外收入，她开始偶尔开网约车。

北京的一名送餐员。随着提供全职工作的公司越来越少，中国的许多工人开始转向打零工。

In late April, Yu Jiadong, a top official at China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said the government had prepared a number of measures to keep employment stable, especially for Chinese exporters. He said Beijing would help companies keep their workers, and he encouraged entrepreneurship for the unemployed.

4月下旬，中国人力资源和社会保障部高级官员俞家栋表示，政府已经准备了一系列措施来保持就业稳定，特别是对中国的出口企业。他说，中国政府将帮助企业留住工人，并鼓励失业者创业。

With so much at stake, sensitivities around employment are heightened. One factory owner in southern China, who asked not to be identified, said he had planned to lay off staff but held off when customers rushed to fill orders after the tariff truce. A government official had told him that if he needed to cut his work force, he should do so properly and quietly to avoid creating a stir.

由于事关重大，就业相关的问题也变得愈发敏感。中国南方一位不愿意透露姓名的工厂主表示，他曾计划裁员，但在关税休战后，由于客户急于交货，他推迟了裁员计划。一位政府官员曾告诉他，如果他需要裁员，他应该以适当的方式悄悄地进行，以免引起轰动。

Factory owners who employ salaried workers are required by law to compensate them in a layoff, said Han Dongfang, the founder of China Labor Bulletin, which tracks factory closures and worker protests. Usually, they are required to pay one month’s salary for every year of employment, making layoffs such an expensive prospect that some factories close down without notice, and the owners disappear.

追踪工厂倒闭和工人抗议活动的《中国劳工通讯》创办人韩东方说，法律规定，雇用领薪工人的工厂主必须在裁员时给予工人补偿。通常的要求是每一年工龄就要支付一个月的工资，这使得裁员变得昂贵，以至于一些工厂在没有通知的情况下突然关闭，老板也随之消失。

Employment activity outside the manufacturing sector has contracted for more than two years, according to a monthly survey of industrial firms. The trade war has made firms more wary, adding another concerning factor for job-seeking college graduates.

根据对工业企业的月度调查，制造业以外的就业活动已经收缩了两年多。贸易战使企业更加谨慎，这给找工作的大学毕业生增加了另一个担忧因素。

“The current job market is much worse than before,” said Laura Wang, 23, a graduate student studying accounting in Chongqing. Ms. Wang said that more than 80 percent of her classmates were struggling to find jobs.

“现在的就业市场比以前糟糕多了，”23岁的劳拉·王（音）说，她是在重庆学会计专业的研究生。王女士说，她班上80%以上的同学在找工作上遇到困难。

She said the market was especially rough for students in finance and accounting. The few jobs and internships that are available have significantly higher requirements. The tariff-related upheaval has left businesses unlikely to take a chance on someone without a proven track record.

她说市场对金融和会计专业的学生来说尤其艰难。为数不多的工作和实习机会要求明显更高。与关税相关的动荡使企业不太可能冒险聘用没有良好业绩记录的人。

“There are a lot of uncertainties,” Ms. Wang said. “For fresh graduates with no experience like me, the impact is even greater.”

“有很多不确定因素，”王女士说。“对于像我这样没有经验的应届毕业生来说，影响更大。”

In the run-up to President Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East, the White House encouraged chief executives and representatives of many U.S. companies to join him. Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, declined, said two people familiar with the decision.

在特朗普总统最近前往中东访问前夕，白宫鼓励多家美国公司的首席执行官和代表随行。两位知情人士表示，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克拒绝了邀请。

The choice appeared to irritate Mr. Trump. As he hopscotched from Saudi Arabia to the United Arab Emirates, Mr. Trump took a number of shots at Mr. Cook.

这一决定似乎惹恼了特朗普。在从沙特阿拉伯辗转抵达阿拉伯联合酋长国的途中，特朗普对库克进行了多次攻击。

During his speech in Riyadh, Mr. Trump paused to praise Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, for traveling to the Middle East along with the White House delegation. Then he knocked Mr. Cook.

在利雅得发表演讲时，特朗普停下来称赞了随行的英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋。然后他敲打库克。

“I mean, Tim Cook isn’t here but you are,” Mr. Trump said to Mr. Huang at an event attended by chief executives like Larry Fink of the asset manager BlackRock, Sam Altman of OpenAI, Jane Fraser of Citigroup and Lisa Su of the semiconductor company AMD.

“我的意思是，蒂姆·库克不在这里，而你在这里，”特朗普在一场活动上对黄仁勋说，台下就坐的包括资产管理公司贝莱德的拉里·芬克、OpenAI的山姆·奥尔特曼、花旗集团的简·弗雷泽和半导体公司AMD的苏姿丰等首席执行官。

Later in Qatar, Mr. Trump said he “had a little problem with Tim Cook.” The president praised Apple’s investment in the United States, then said he had told Mr. Cook, “But now I hear you’re building all over India. I don’t want you building in India.”

晚些时候在卡塔尔，特朗普说他“和蒂姆·库克有些小问题”。总统肯定了苹果在美国的投资，然后说他曾对库克说，“但现在我听说你们在印度到处建厂。我可不想看到这样。”

On Friday morning, Mr. Trump caught much of his own administration and Apple’s leadership off guard with a social media post threatening tariffs of 25 percent on iPhones made anywhere except the United States. The post thrust Apple back into the administration’s cross hairs a little over a month after Mr. Cook had lobbied and won an exemption from a 145 percent tariff on iPhones assembled in China and sold in the United States.

周五上午，特朗普在社交媒体上发了一条帖子，威胁对除美国以外的任何地方生产的iPhone征收25%的关税，令政府内部和苹果公司高层的很多人措手不及。此时距离库克成功游说，对在中国组装、在美国销售的iPhone免征145%的关税仅过去一个多月，如今这篇帖子又令苹果成了政府的靶子。

The new tariff threat is a reversal of fortune for Mr. Cook. In eight years, he’s gone from one of Mr. Trump’s most beloved chief executives — whom the president mistakenly and humorously called Tim Apple in 2019 — to one of the White House’s biggest corporate targets. The breakdown has been enough to make insiders across Washington and Silicon Valley wonder: Has tech’s leading Trump whisperer lost his voice?

对库克而言，新的关税威胁是命运的逆转。八年里，他从特朗普最心爱的首席执行官之一——总统在2019年错误而幽默地称他为蒂姆·苹果——变成了白宫在商界最大的打击目标之一。如此巨变足以让华盛顿和硅谷的内部人士怀疑：这位科技界最能在特朗普耳边窃窃私语的人失声了吗？

Nu Wexler, principal at Four Corners Public Affairs and a former Washington policy communications executive at Google and Facebook, said Mr. Cook’s “very public relationship” with Mr. Trump has backfired.

四角公共事务负责人、曾在谷歌和Facebook担任华盛顿政策传讯主管的努·韦克斯勒说，库克与特朗普“众所周知的交情”产生了反作用。

“It has put Apple at a disadvantage because every move, including a potential concession from Trump, is scrutinized,” Mr. Wexler said. Because Mr. Trump didn’t “have much incentive to either go easy on Apple or cut a deal on tariffs,” he said, “the incentive to crack down is much stronger.”

韦克斯勒说：“这让苹果处于不利地位，因为每一个举动，包括从特朗普那里获得的让步，都会受到仔细审视。”他说，因为特朗普“没有什么动力对苹果网开一面，或者在关税问题上达成协议”，因此，“打击苹果的动机要强烈得多。”

Apple did not provide comment. The White House declined to comment on the Middle East trip.

苹果没有就此置评。白宫拒绝就总统的中东之行发表评论。

Mr. Trump’s new tariffs followed a report by The Financial Times that Apple’s supplier Foxconn would spend $1.5 billion on a plant in India for iPhones. The president said the tariffs would begin at the end of June and affect all smartphones made abroad, including Samsung’s devices.

特朗普此番加征新关税之前，《金融时报》报道称，苹果的供应商富士康将斥资15亿美元在印度建厂生产iPhone。总统表示，关税将于6月底生效，影响所有在国外生产的智能手机，包括三星的设备。

Earlier in the week, Mr. Cook had visited Washington for a meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. During an appearance on Fox News on Friday, Mr. Bessent said the administration considered overseas production of semiconductors and electronics components “one of our greatest vulnerabilities,” which Apple could help address.

本周早些时候，库克曾访问华盛顿，与财政部长贝森特会晤。周五在福克斯新闻露面时，贝森特表示，政府认为半导体和电子元件的海外生产是“我们最大的弱点之一”，苹果可以帮助解决这个问题。

“President Trump has been consistently clear about the need to reshore manufacturing that is critical to our national and economic security, including for semiconductors and semiconductor products,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman. He added that the administration “continues to have a productive relationship with Apple.”

白宫发言人库什·德赛称，“特朗普总统一直明确表示，需要将关乎国家与经济安全的制造业，包括半导体及其相关产品的生产迁回美国。”他补充说，政府“继续与苹果保持富有成效的合作关系”。

The timing of the White House’s new tariff plan couldn’t be worse for Mr. Cook, who has led Apple for nearly 14 years.

对于领导苹果近14年的库克来说，白宫出台新关税计划的时机再糟糕不过了。

Last month, the company suffered a stinging defeat in an App Store trial. The judge in the trial rebuked Apple executives, saying they had “outright lied under oath” and that “Cook chose poorly,” and ruled that Apple had to change how it operates the App Store. Jony Ive, Apple’s former chief designer who became estranged from Mr. Cook and left the company in 2019, joined OpenAI last week to build a potential iPhone competitor. Its Vision Pro mixed reality headset, released in January 2024 to fanfare, has been a disappointment. And in March, Apple postponed its promised release of a new Siri, raising fresh doubts about its ability to compete in the industry’s race to adopt artificial intelligence.

上个月，苹果在涉及App Store的诉讼中惨败。法官当庭斥责苹果高管，称他们“在宣誓后公然撒谎”，直指“库克决策失误”，并裁定苹果必须改变其应用商店的运营方式。苹果前首席设计师乔尼·艾夫与库克不和，并于2019年离开公司，他上周加入OpenAI，负责打造一个潜在的iPhone竞争对手。苹果公司于2024年1月高调发布的Vision Pro混合现实头盔令人失望。今年3月，苹果推迟了新版Siri的发布，这让人们对其在这个争相采用人工智能的行业中的竞争力产生了新的怀疑。

Still, Apple’s market value has increased by more than $2.5 trillion under his leadership, or about $500 million a day since 2011. And Apple remains a moneymaking machine, generating an annual profit of nearly $100 billion.

不过，在库克的领导下，苹果的市值已经超过了2.5万亿美元，自2011年以来每天增长约5亿美元。苹果仍然是一台赚钱机器，年利润接近1000亿美元。

With Mr. Trump’s re-election, Mr. Cook appeared to be in a strong position to help Apple navigate the new administration. In 2019, Mr. Trump said Mr. Cook was a “great executive because he calls me and others don’t.”

随着特朗普的连任，库克似乎处于有利地位，可以帮助苹果驾驭新政府。2019年，特朗普说库克是位“伟大的高管，因为他会给我打电话，而其他人不会”。

Mr. Cook still occasionally pushed back on the president’s agenda. During an appearance at a conference for Fortune magazine in late 2017, Mr. Cook explained that the company would love to make things in the United States but that China had more engineers and better skills. He appeared before a live audience on MSNBC a few months later and criticized the president’s policy on immigration.

库克偶尔仍会违背总统的议程。在2017年底为《财富》杂志举办的一次会议上，库克解释说，苹果公司很愿意在美国制造产品，但中国有更多的工程师和更好的技术。几个月后，他在MSNBC的现场观众面前批评了总统的移民政策。

This year, their warm relations have run cold. Mr. Trump is more determined to quickly move manufacturing to the United States, which has made Apple a primary target.

今年以来，他们的友好关系明显降温。特朗普更坚定地推动制造业迅速回流美国，这让苹果成为了他施压的主要目标。

On other administration priorities like dismantling diversity initiatives, Mr. Cook has tried to take a diplomatic position. At its annual general shareholder meeting in February, he said that Apple remained committed to its “North Star of dignity and respect for everyone” and would continue to “create a culture of belonging,” but that it might need to make changes to comply with a changing legal landscape.

在废除多样性倡议等其他政府优先事项上，库克试图保持圆滑、避免冲突。在今年2月的年度股东大会上，他表示，苹果仍然致力于“尊重每个人的尊严”这一如同北极星般的核心信念，并将继续“创造一种归属感的文化”，但它可能需要做出改变，以适应不断变化的法律环境。

The bigger problem has been trade. Apple has stopped short of committing to making the iPhone, iPad or Mac laptops in the United States. Instead, the company has moved to assemble more iPhones in India.

更大的问题是贸易。苹果没有承诺在美国生产iPhone、iPad或Mac笔记本电脑。相反，该公司已经开始在印度组装更多的iPhone。

Apple has tried to head off Mr. Trump’s criticisms of its overseas manufacturing by promising to spend $500 billion in the United States over the next four years. Mr. Cook also has emphasized that the company will source 19 billion chips from the United States this year, and will start making A.I. servers in Houston.

苹果公司承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元，试图以此化解特朗普对其海外制造的批评。库克还强调，该公司今年将从美国采购190亿颗芯片，并将在休斯顿生产人工智能服务器。

Servers haven’t satisfied Mr. Trump. He wants iPhones made in the United States badly enough to create what amounts to an iPhone tariff. It would increase the cost of shipping an iPhone from India or China to the United States by 25 percent. The costs aren’t so staggering that they would damage Apple’s business, but Mr. Trump could always ratchet up the levies until he gets his wish.

服务器计划没有让特朗普满意。他非常希望iPhone在美国生产，甚至不惜祭出关税大棒。这将使iPhone从印度或中国运往美国的成本增加25%。现在的成本不会高到损害苹果业务的程度，但特朗普随时都可以加大征税力度，直到他如愿以偿。

“If they’re going to sell it in America, I want it to be built in the United States,” Mr. Trump said on Friday. “They’re able to do that.”

“如果他们要在美国销售，我希望它在美国制造，”特朗普周五说。“他们能做到这一点。”

Mr. Cook hasn’t responded publicly.

库克尚未公开回应。

For President Trump, anytime is a good time for deal-making, but never more so than now with the leaders of China and Russia.

对特朗普总统来说，虽然任何时候都是做交易的好时候，但就与中俄领导人做交易而言，没有比现在更好的时候。

Last week, Mr. Trump said he wanted to normalize commerce with Russia, appearing to lessen the pressure on Moscow to settle its war with Ukraine. And he is trying to limit the fallout from his own global trade war by urging China’s leader to call him.

上周，特朗普说他想与俄罗斯恢复贸易正常化，似乎有意减轻莫斯科在结束乌克兰战争上面临的压力。同时，他试图通过敦促中国领导人与他通话来限制他自己发动的全球贸易战带来的不良后果。

“We all want to make deals,” Mr. Trump said in a recent interview with Time magazine. “But I am this giant store. It’s a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there.”

“大家都想做交易，”特朗普最近在接受《时代》杂志采访时说。“但我是一家巨大的商店。一家巨大、美丽的商店，每个人都想进来买东西。”

Mr. Trump may have something even bigger in mind involving Russia and China, and it would be the ultimate deal.

涉及俄罗斯和中国时，特朗普心目中也许有一个更大的计划，那或许是终极交易。

His actions and statements suggest he might be envisioning a world in which each of the three so-called great powers — the United States, China and Russia — dominates its part of the globe, some foreign policy analysts say.

一些外交政策分析人士认为，他的行动和言论暗示，他也许正在构想一个由三个所谓的大国——美国、中国、俄罗斯——各自雄踞一方的世界格局。

It would be a throwback to a 19th-century style of imperial rule.

这会回到19世纪的帝国统治模式。

Mr. Trump has said he wants to take Greenland from Denmark, annex Canada and re-establish American control of the Panama Canal. Those bids to extend U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere are the clearest signs yet of his desire to create a sphere of influence in the nation’s backyard.

特朗普曾经扬言，他想从丹麦手中夺走格陵兰岛，吞并加拿大，并重掌对巴拿马运河的控制。这些扩大美国在西半球主导地位的企图，是迄今为止他渴望在美国后院建立势力范围的最清晰的迹象。

美国副总统万斯和夫人乌莎·万斯今年3月参观了位于格陵兰岛的美军皮图费克太空基地。特朗普总统已表示，他想从丹麦手中接管格陵兰岛。

He has criticized allies and talked about withdrawing U.S. troops from around the globe. That could benefit Russia and China, which seek to diminish the American security presence in Europe and Asia. Mr. Trump often praises President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, as strong and smart men who are his close friends.

他屡屡批评盟友，并多次提及将美军从全球各地撤走。这样可能会让俄罗斯和中国受益，这两个国家正在试图削弱美国在欧洲和亚洲的安全存在。特朗普经常称赞俄罗斯总统普京和中国领导人习近平，称他们是强人、聪明人，是自己的亲密朋友。

To that end, Mr. Trump has been trying to formalize Russian control of some Ukrainian territory — and American access to Ukraine’s minerals — as part of a potential peace deal that critics say would effectively carve up Ukraine, similar to what great powers did in the age of empires. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke about Ukraine in a two-hour phone call on last week.

为此，特朗普试图让俄罗斯正式控制乌克兰部分领土，同时让美国获取乌克兰的矿产资源，作为一个潜在和平协议的内容，批评人士称，这在实质上将导致乌克兰被瓜分，类似于大国在帝国时代的列强做法。特朗普和普京上周就乌克兰问题进行了长达两小时的通话。

“The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.

“通话的基调和氛围都非常好，”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。

Monica Duffy Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, said that the leaders of the United States, Russia and China are all striving for “an imaginary past that was freer and more glorious.”

塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院国际政治学教授莫妮卡·达菲·托夫特说，美俄中领导人都在追寻“一个更自由、更辉煌的虚幻过去”。

“Commanding and extending spheres of influence appears to restore a fading sense of grandeur,” she wrote in a new essay in Foreign Affairs magazine. The term “spheres of influence” originated at the Berlin Conference of 1884-5, in which European powers adopted a formal plan to carve up Africa.

“主导和扩大势力范围好像能唤回逐渐消失的辉煌感，”托夫特在《外交事务》杂志新发表的一篇文章中写道。“势力范围”一词起源于1884-1885年的柏林会议，欧洲列强在那次会议上制定了瓜分非洲的正式方案。

Some close observers of Mr. Trump, including officials from his first administration, caution against thinking his actions and statements are strategic. While Mr. Trump might have strong, long-held attitudes about a handful of issues, notably immigration and trade, he does not have a vision of a world order, they argue.

一些密切观察特朗普的人士，包括曾在他的第一届政府担任官员的人警告说，不要认为他的言行是一种战略考量。他们认为，尽管特朗普在一些议题上抱持强烈且持久的立场，特别是移民和贸易问题，但他并没有一个关于世界秩序的总体构想。

Yet there are signs that Mr. Trump and perhaps some of his aides are thinking in the manner that emperors once did when they conceived of spheres of influence.

不过，也有迹象表明，特朗普以及部分幕僚正在用昔日帝王们构想势力范围的方式思考。

“The best evidence is Trump’s desire to expand America’s overt sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere,” said Stephen Wertheim, a historian of U.S. foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“最有力的证据就是，特朗普想要在西半球扩大美国的公开势力范围，”在卡内基国际和平基金会研究美国外交政策的历史学家斯蒂芬·沃特海姆说。

But setting up a sphere of influence in the post-imperial age is not easy, even for a superpower.

但即便是超级大国，在后帝国时代建立势力范围也并不容易。

Last month, Canadians elected an anti-Trump prime minister, Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party appeared destined to lose the election until Mr. Trump talked aggressively about Canada. Leaders of Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, have rejected the idea of U.S. control. Chinese officials are threatening to stop a Hong Kong company from selling its business running two ports in the Panama Canal to American investors.

上个月，加拿大选出了一名反特朗普的总理马克·卡尼，他领导的自由党原本败局已定，直到特朗普对加拿大发表咄咄逼人的言论。丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛的领导人已拒绝了美国控制的想法。中国官员正在发出威胁，要阻止一家香港公司把其在巴拿马运河两个港口拥有的股份出售给美国的投资者。

加拿大总理马克·卡尼在今年4月的大选日晚庆祝胜利。他领导的自由党曾似乎注定会输掉大选，直到特朗普对加拿大发表了一些咄咄逼人的言论。

“China will not give up its stakes in the Western Hemisphere so easily without a fight,” said Yun Sun, a China analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“中国不会放弃自己在西半球的利益，不会对这件事等闲视之，”华盛顿史汀生中心的中国问题分析师孙韵说。

Even so, Mr. Trump and his aides persist in trying to exert greater American influence from the Arctic Circle to South America’s Patagonia region. When Mr. Carney told Mr. Trump this month in the Oval Office that Canada was “not for sale,” Mr. Trump replied: “Never say never.”

尽管如此，特朗普及其幕僚仍执着于从北极圈到南美洲巴塔哥尼亚地区扩张美国的影响力。本月，卡尼在椭圆形办公室里对特朗普说，加拿大是“非卖品”，特朗普回答说：“没有不可能的事。”

In March, Vice President JD Vance visited a U.S. military base in Greenland to reiterate Mr. Trump’s desire to take the territory.

今年3月，美国副总统万斯访问了格陵兰岛的一个美国军事基地，重申了特朗普想占有格陵兰岛的愿望。

And it is no coincidence that Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s two most substantial trips since taking office have been to Latin America and the Caribbean.

美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥上任以来的两次最重要出访都选择去了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，这更非偶然。

In El Salvador, Mr. Rubio negotiated with Nayib Bukele, the strongman leader, to have the nation imprison immigrants deported by the U.S. government, setting up what is effectively an American penal colony. Mr. Rubio also pressed Panama on its ports.

在萨尔瓦多，鲁比奥与该国强人领导者纳伊布·布克尔举行谈判，促成在那里监禁被美国政府驱逐的移民，实际上等于在那里设立一个美国的罪犯流放地。鲁比奥还在港口问题上向巴拿马施压。

As a senator representing Florida, Mr. Rubio said at a hearing in July 2022 that focusing more closely on the Western Hemisphere was “critical to our national security and our national economic interests.”

鲁比奥曾任佛罗里达州的联邦参议员，他曾在2022年7月的一个听证会上说，更密切地关注西半球“对我们的国家安全和国家经济利益至关重要”。

“Geography matters,” he said, because “proximity matters.”

“地理事关紧要，”他说，因为“距离事关紧要”。

During that trip to the region, Mr. Rubio was asked by a reporter whether administration officials had discussed setting up spheres of influence, which would entail negotiating limits on each superpower’s footprint, including in Asia.

在那次访问该地区期间，一名记者问鲁比奥，政府官员是否已讨论过建立势力范围，那将涉及对每个超级大国的势力范围进行限制的谈判，包括在亚洲。

Mr. Rubio, who has more conventional foreign policy views than Mr. Trump, asserted that the United States would maintain its military alliances in Asia. Those alliances allow it to base troops across the region.

鲁比奥曾坚称美国会维持自己在亚洲的军事联盟，他的外交政策观点比特朗普更传统。这些联盟使美国能在亚洲各地部署军队。

“We don’t talk about spheres of influence,” he said. “The United States is an Indo-Pacific nation. We have relationships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines. We’re going to continue those relationships.”

“我们不谈论势力范围，”他说。“美国是一个印太国家。我们与日本、韩国、菲律宾都有关系。我们将继续维持这些关系。”

美国国务卿鲁比奥今年2月与萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克尔见面，进行了让萨尔瓦多监禁被美国政府驱逐的移民的谈判。

Some analysts say Mr. Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is consistent with the concept of spheres of influence. The United States is talking to another large power — Russia — about how to define the borders of a smaller country and is itself trying to control natural resources.

一些分析人士认为，特朗普对俄乌战争的态度与势力范围的概念相符。美国正在与另一个大国——俄罗斯——就如何划定一个较小国家的边界​​进行谈判，而美国自己也在试图控制（这个小国的）自然资源。

Mr. Trump has proposed terms of a settlement that would mostly benefit Russia, including U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and acknowledgment of Russian occupation of large swaths of eastern Ukraine. This week, Mr. Trump even seemed to back off his demand that Russia agree to an immediate cease-fire with Ukraine. Earlier, he got Ukraine to sign an agreement to give American companies access to the country’s minerals.

特朗普提出的停战条款明显有利于俄罗斯，包括美国承认俄罗斯对克里米亚的主权，承认俄罗斯在乌克兰东部占领的大片地区。本周，特朗普甚至似乎放弃了对俄罗斯在乌克兰立即停火的要求。他曾在早些时候让乌克兰签署一项协议，允许美国公司开采该国的矿产资源。

Supporters of Mr. Trump’s settlement proposal say it reflects the reality on the ground, as Ukraine struggles to oust the Russian occupiers.

支持特朗普解决方案的人说，该方案反映了乌军难以驱逐俄占军的现实状况。

But Mr. Trump’s praise of Mr. Putin and of Russia, and his persistent skepticism of America’s role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has inflamed anxieties among European nations over a potentially waning U.S. presence in their geographic sphere.

但特朗普对普京和俄罗斯的赞扬，以及他对美国在北约作用的持续怀疑，已加剧了欧洲国家对美国在欧洲地理范围内的影响力可能减弱的担忧。

The same is true of Taiwan and Asian security. Mr. Trump has voiced enough criticism of the island over the years, and showered enough accolades on Mr. Xi, China’s leader, that Taiwanese and U.S. officials wonder whether he would waver on U.S. arms support for Taiwan, which is mandated by a congressional act.

在台湾和亚洲的安全问题上也存在类似担忧。特朗普多年来对台湾提出了足够多的批评，对中国领导人习近平进行了足够多的赞扬，这让台湾和美国的官员想知道，特朗普是否会在国会一项方案所要求的美国对台军售问题上动摇。

Mr. Trump says he wants to reach a deal with China. Whether that would go beyond tariffs to address issues such as Taiwan and the U.S. military presence in Asia is an open question.

特朗普说，他想与中国做成交易。除关税外，交易是否会涉及台湾以及美国在亚洲的军事存在等问题，目前无人知晓。

“Beijing would love to have a grand bargain with the U.S. on spheres of influence,” Ms. Sun said, and “its first and foremost focus will be on Taiwan.”

孙韵表示，“中国政府很想与美国在势力范围问题上做一笔大交易”，而且“对中国来说，首要问题将是台湾”。

Trump administration officials have not detailed how far the United States would go to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. At his confirmation hearing, Elbridge A. Colby, the under secretary of defense for policy, was asked by Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, why Mr. Colby’s stance on defending Taiwan appeared to have “softened” recently.

特朗普政府官员还没有明确说明，万一中国入侵台湾，美国在协防台湾上会走多远。美国国防部负责政策的副部长是埃尔布里奇·科尔比，阿肯色州的联邦参议员、共和党人汤姆·科顿曾在科尔比的确认听证会上问后者，为什么他保卫台湾的立场最近似乎有所“软化”。

Mr. Colby said Taiwan was “not an existential interest” for the United States, and affirmed a vague commitment to Asia: “It’s very important the core American interest is in denying China regional hegemony.”

科尔比说，对美国利益来说，台湾“不是一个存亡问题”，他重申了对亚洲含糊其辞的一个承诺：“阻止中国在该地区称霸，对美国的核心利益非常重要。”

When Hillary Clinton was first lady, a furor erupted over reports that she had once made $100,000 from a $1,000 investment in cattle futures. Even though it had happened a dozen years before her husband became president, it became a scandal that lasted weeks and forced the White House to initiate a review.

当希拉里·克林顿还是第一夫人时，有报道称她曾投资1000美元购买牛产品期货，赚了10万美元，这在当时引发了一阵公愤。尽管发生在她丈夫成为总统的十多年前，这件事还是成了持续数周的丑闻，迫使白宫启动了一项审查。

Thirty-one years later, after dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Jeff Bezos agreed to finance a promotional film about Melania Trump that will reportedly put $28 million directly in her pocket — 280 times the Clinton lucre and in this case from a person with a vested interest in policies set by her husband’s government. Scandal? Furor? Washington moved on while barely taking notice.

时隔31年，杰夫·贝佐斯在马阿拉歌庄园的晚餐后同意资助一部关于梅拉尼娅·特朗普的宣传电影，据报道，这部电影将令她将2800万美元直接收入囊中——是希拉里·克林顿发的那笔财的280倍，而且这一次是来自一个可以从她丈夫的政府政策获得利益的人。丑闻？公愤？华盛顿几乎没有注意到这件事。

The Trumps are hardly the first presidential family to profit from their time in power, but they have done more to monetize the presidency than anyone who has ever occupied the White House. The scale and the scope of the presidential mercantilism has been breathtaking. The Trump family and its business partners have collected $320 million in fees from a new cryptocurrency, brokered overseas real estate deals worth billions of dollars and are opening an exclusive club in Washington called the Executive Branch charging $500,000 apiece to join, all in the past few months alone.

特朗普家族并不是第一个在执政期间获利的总统家族，但是在将总统职权变现方面，他们做得比任何白宫主人都多。这种将总统职权商业化的规模和范围令人震惊。仅在过去几个月里，特朗普家族及其商业伙伴就通过一种新的加密货币中收取了3.2亿美元的费用，为价值数十亿美元的海外房地产交易做中介，并在华盛顿开设了一家名为“行政部门”的高级俱乐部，每位会员入会费为50万美元。

Just last week, Qatar handed over a luxury jet meant for Mr. Trump’s use not just in his official capacity but also for his presidential library after he leaves office. Experts have valued the plane, formally donated to the Air Force, at $200 million, more than all of the foreign gifts bestowed on all previous American presidents combined.

就在上周，卡塔尔移交了一架豪华飞机，不仅供特朗普用于公务，还供他卸任后的总统图书馆使用。专家们估计这架正式捐赠给美国空军的飞机价值2亿美元，超过了此前所有美国总统收到的外国礼物的总和。

And Mr. Trump hosted an exclusive dinner at his Virginia club for 220 investors in the $TRUMP cryptocurrency that he started days before taking office in January. Access was openly sold based on how much money they chipped in — not to a campaign account but to a business that benefits Mr. Trump personally.

特朗普在他的弗吉尼亚俱乐部为220名$TRUMP加密货币的投资者举办了一场专属晚宴，该币是他在1月就职几天前启动的。面见总统的机会被公开出售，取决于这些人出了多少钱——不是捐给竞选账户，而是捐给一家让特朗普个人受益的企业。

来自上海的特朗普总统加密货币投资者路成（音）周五参观完白宫后离开。他在前一天晚上出席了在华盛顿郊外的特朗普国家高尔夫俱乐部举行的专属晚宴。

By conventional Washington standards, according to students of official graft, the still-young Trump administration is a candidate for the most brazen use of government office in American history, perhaps eclipsing even Teapot Dome, Watergate and other famous scandals.

根据研究官员腐败的学者的说法，按照华盛顿的传统标准，仍然年轻的特朗普政府可以入围美国历史上最公然滥用职权的政府，甚至可能超过茶壶山油田丑闻、水门事件和其他著名丑闻。

“I’ve been watching and writing about corruption for 50 years, and my head is still spinning,” said Michael Johnston, a professor emeritus at Colgate University and author of multiple books on corruption in the United States.

科尔盖特大学荣休教授、著有多本关于美国腐败的书籍的迈克尔·约翰斯顿说：“我关注和撰写腐败问题已经50年了，但我仍然感到震惊。”

Yet a mark of how much Mr. Trump has transformed Washington since his return to power is the normalization of moneymaking schemes that once would have generated endless political blowback, televised hearings, official investigations and damage control. The death of outrage in the Trump era, or at least the dearth of outrage, exemplifies how far the president has moved the lines of accepted behavior in Washington.

然而，关于特朗普重新掌权以来华盛顿发生了多大的变化，一个标志就是：曾经会引发无休止的政治反击、电视转播听证会、官方调查和止损操作的赚钱计划已经变得正常化。在特朗普时代，愤怒的消失——或者至少是缺乏——体现了这位总统在多大程度上改变了华盛顿公认的行为准则。

Mr. Trump, the first convicted felon elected president, has erased ethical boundaries and dismantled the instruments of accountability that constrained his predecessors. There will be no official investigations because Mr. Trump has made sure of it. He has fired government inspectors general and ethics watchdogs, installed partisan loyalists to run the Justice Department, F.B.I. and regulatory agencies and dominated a Republican-controlled Congress unwilling to hold hearings.

特朗普是第一位被判犯有重罪的当选总统，他抹去了道德界限，废除了约束其前任的问责机制。不会有官方调查，因为特朗普已经确保了这一点。他解雇了政府的监察长和操守监督员，任命忠于党派的人执掌司法部、联邦调查局和监管机构，并主导了一个由共和党控制、不愿举行听证会的国会。。

Paul Rosenzweig, who was a senior counsel to Ken Starr’s investigation of President Bill Clinton and later served in the George W. Bush administration, said the lack of uproar over Mr. Trump’s ethical norm-busting has made him wonder whether longstanding assumptions about public desire for honest government were wrong all along.

保罗·罗森茨威格曾是肯·斯塔尔的比尔·克林顿总统调查团队的高级法律顾问，后来在乔治·W·布什政府任职。他说，特朗普违反道德规范的行为没有引起人们的强烈不满，这让他怀疑，长期以来关于公众希望有一个诚信政府的假设是否一直都是错误的。

“Either the general public never cared about this,” he said, or “the public did care about it but no longer does.” He concluded that the answer is that “80 percent, the public never cared” and “20 percent, we are overwhelmed and exhausted.”

“要么是公众从来就不关心这件事，”他说，要么是“公众曾经关心过，但现在不关心了”。他总结说，答案是“80%是因为公众从未关心过，20%是因为我们已经不知所措、筋疲力尽”。

“Outrage hasn’t died,” Mr. Rosenzweig added. “It was always just a figment of elite imagination.”

“愤怒并不是消失了，”罗森茨威格还说。“其实是它一直都只是精英们凭空想象出来的。”

The White House has defended Mr. Trump’s actions, brushing off questions about ethical considerations by saying that he was so rich that he did not need more money.

白宫为特朗普的行为进行了辩护，称他非常富有，不需要更多的钱，以此搪塞有关操守的问题。

“The president is abiding by all conflict of interest laws that are applicable to the president,” said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary. “The American public believes it is absurd for anyone to insinuate that this president is profiting off of the presidency. This president was incredibly successful before giving it all up to serve our country publicly.”

“总统遵守所有适用于总统的利益冲突法，”白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特说。“美国公众认为，任何有关总统以权谋私的说法都是荒谬的。这位总统在放弃一切、通过公职为国家服务之前，曾经取得了令人难以置信的成功。”

But saying that he is abiding by all conflict of interest laws that are applicable to the president is meaningless since, as Mr. Trump himself has long noted, conflict of interest laws are not applicable to the president.

但是，说他遵守所有适用于总统的利益冲突法没有意义，因为正如特朗普本人长期以来指出的，利益冲突法不适用于总统。

Moreover, he has not given it all up; in fact, he is still making money from his private business interests run by his sons, and independent estimates indicate that he has hardly sacrificed financially by entering politics. Forbes estimated Mr. Trump’s net worth at $5.1 billion in March, a full $1.2 billion higher than the year before and the highest it has ever been in the magazine’s rankings.

此外，他并没有放弃一切；事实上，他仍在通过儿子们经营的私人生意赚钱，而且独立评估显示，他从政几乎没有在经济上做出牺牲。《福布斯》估计，今年3月特朗普的净资产为51亿美元，比去年整整高出12亿美元，是该杂志排名中最高的。

The president’s sons scoff at the idea that they should limit their business activities, which directly benefit their father. Donald Trump Jr. has said that the family restrained itself during his father’s first term only to be criticized anyway, so it made no sense to hold back anymore. “They’re going to hit you no matter what,” he said last week at a business forum in Qatar. “So we’re just going to play the game.”

总统的儿子们不认为他们应该限制直接有利于父亲的商业活动。小唐纳德·特朗普曾表示，家族在父亲的第一个任期内很克制，结果还是遭到了批评，所以再克制下去没有任何意义。“无论如何，他们都会打击你，”他上周在卡塔尔的一个商业论坛上表示。“所以我们就该怎么做怎么做。”

There have been some burgeoning signs of public pushback in recent days. The gift of the Qatar plane seemed to break through to the general audience in a way that other episodes have not. A Harvard/CAPS Harris poll released last week found that 62 percent of Americans thought the gift “raises ethical concerns about corruption,” and even some prominent right-wing Trump supporters like Ben Shapiro and Laura Loomer voiced objections.

最近几天，公众开始出现一些反对的迹象。卡塔尔赠送飞机一事似乎以一种其他事件没有的方式触动了普通大众。上周公布的哈佛大学/CAPS哈里斯民意调查显示，62%的美国人认为这份礼物“引发了对腐败的道德担忧”，甚至本·夏皮罗和劳拉·卢默等著名的特朗普右翼支持者也表示反对。

卡塔尔移交了一架豪华波音747飞机供特朗普使用。

But while several dozen demonstrators protested outside Mr. Trump’s golf club the other night, Democrats are split about how much to focus on Trump’s profitmaking, with some preferring to concentrate on economic issues. Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, has been leading the charge the other direction, making floor speeches and leading news conferences denouncing what he calls “brazen corruption.”

但是，尽管数十名示威者前几天晚上在特朗普的高尔夫俱乐部外抗议，但民主党人在特朗普牟取利益的事应该引起多少关注上存在分歧，一些人更倾向于关注经济问题。康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯托弗·墨菲一直力主从另一个方向发起攻击，他在议会发表演讲，主持新闻发布会，谴责他所说的“无耻的腐败”。

“It is unlikely he is going to be held accountable through traditional means,” Mr. Murphy said in an interview. “There are going to be no special counsels; there’s going to be no D.O.J. action. And so it’s really just about public mobilization and politics. If Republicans keep paying a price for the corruption by losing special elections throughout the next year, maybe that causes them to rethink their complicity.”

“他不太可能通过传统方式被追究责任，”墨菲在接受采访时说。“不会有特别检察官；司法部不会采取任何行动。所以真的只是关乎公众动员和政治了。如果共和党人在明年的特别选举中继续为腐败付出代价，也许会让他们重新考虑自己的共谋行为。”

Mr. Trump had long promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington after years of corruption by other politicians. When he first ran for president in 2016, he excoriated the Clintons for taking money from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East monarchies with an obvious interest in currying favor in case Hillary Clinton won the presidency. But that money went to the Clinton Foundation for philanthropic purposes. The money Mr. Trump’s family is now bringing in from the Middle East is going into their personal accounts through a variety of ventures that The New York Times has documented.

特朗普长期以来一直承诺，在其他政治人士多年的腐败之后，他将“抽干华盛顿的沼泽”。2016年第一次竞选总统时，他痛斥克林顿夫妇从沙特阿拉伯和其他中东君主制国家接受资金，显然是为了讨好希拉里·克林顿，以备她赢得总统宝座。但这笔钱都捐给了克林顿基金会，用于慈善目的。根据《纽约时报》的记录，特朗普家族现在从中东带来的资金正通过各种投资进入他们的个人账户。

Mr. Johnston, the corruption scholar, said the Trumps represent “an absolute outlier case, not just in monetary terms” but also “in terms of their brazen disregard” for past standards. “While we might disagree as to the merits of policy, the president and figures in the executive branch are expected to serve the public good, not themselves,” he said.

腐败问题学者约翰斯顿说，特朗普家族“绝对是一个孤例，不仅在金钱方面”，而且，也是在“他们公然无视”过去的标准这方面。“虽然我们可能会对政策的优劣持不同意见，但我们都认为总统和行政部门的人物应该是为公众利益服务，而不是为他们自己，”他说。

Mr. Trump made a nod at those standards in his first term by saying he would restrict his family business from doing deals overseas.

特朗普在第一个任期内对这些标准表示认可，称他将限制家族企业在海外的生意往来。

But since then, he has been convicted of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records and held liable in civil court for fraud while the Supreme Court has conferred immunity on him for official acts. In his second term, Mr. Trump has dispensed with self-imposed ethical limits.

但从那以后，他因伪造商业记录而被判34项重罪，并因欺诈在民事法庭上被判负有责任，而最高法院却给予他公务行为豁免权。在第二个任期内，特朗普取消了自我道德约束。

“He’s not trying to give the appearance that he’s doing the right thing anymore,” said Fred Wertheimer, founder of Democracy 21 and a longtime advocate for government ethics. “There’s nothing in the history of America that approaches the use of the presidency for massive personal gain. Nothing.”

 “他不再试图给人一种他在做正确事情的感觉，”民主21组织的创始人、长期倡导廉政的弗雷德·韦特海默说。“在美国历史上，没有任何事情能与利用总统职位谋取巨额个人利益相提并论。没有。”

Congressional Republicans spent years investigating Hunter Biden, the son of President Joseph R. Biden Jr., for trading on his family name to make millions of dollars, even labeling the clan the “Biden Crime Family.” But while Hunter Biden’s cash flow was a tiny fraction of that of Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump and Jared Kushner, Republicans have shown no appetite for looking into the current presidential family’s finances.

国会共和党人花了数年时间调查拜登总统的儿子亨特·拜登利用自己的家族地位赚取大量金钱，甚至给这个家族贴上了“拜登犯罪家族”的标签。但是，尽管亨特·拜登的现金流跟小唐纳德·特朗普、埃里克·特朗普和贾里德·库什纳相比只是个零头，共和党人对调查现任总统家族的财务状况并没有表现出任何兴趣。

“The American public has had to inure itself to the corruption of Donald Trump and his presidency because the president and his Republican Party have given the American public no choice in the matter,” said J. Michael Luttig, a conservative former appeals court judge who has become a critic of Mr. Trump.

“美国公众不得不习惯于唐纳德·特朗普和他的总统职位的腐败，因为总统和他的共和党让美国公众在这件事上别无选择，”已成为特朗普批评者的保守派前上诉法院法官迈克尔·卢蒂格说。

Mr. Trump evinces no concern that people funneling money into his family coffers have interests in government policies. Some of the crypto investors who attended his dinner on Thursday night acknowledged that they were using the opportunity to press him on regulation of the industry. According to a video obtained by The Times, he reciprocated by promising guests that he would not be as hard on them as the Biden administration was.

特朗普似乎丝毫不担心那些向他的家族金库输送资金的人与政府政策有利益关系。周四晚上参加他晚宴的一些加密货币投资者承认，他们正在利用这个机会，就行业监管问题向他施压。根据时报获得的一段视频，作为回应，他向嘉宾们承诺，他不会像拜登政府那样严厉对待他们。

One guest at the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va., that night was Justin Sun, a Chinese billionaire who became one of the largest holders of the $TRUMP memecoin after buying more than $40 million, earning him a spot in an even more exclusive private VIP reception with the president before the dinner. The Securities and Exchange Commission in 2023 accused Mr. Sun of fraud, but after Mr. Trump took over the agency put its lawsuit on hold even as it dropped other crypto investigations.

当晚来到弗吉尼亚州斯特林特朗普国家高尔夫俱乐部的其中一位嘉宾是中国亿万富翁孙宇晨，他购买了价值4000多万美元的$TRUMP加密货币，成为该币最大的持有者之一，这让他有资格参加晚宴前与总统举行的一场更高级的私人贵宾招待会。美国证券交易委员会曾于2023年指控孙宇晨欺诈，但在特朗普接管后，该机构搁置了诉讼，同时放弃了其他加密货币调查。

As for Mr. Bezos and Qatar, each has reason to get on Mr. Trump’s good side. In his first term, Mr. Trump, peeved at coverage in The Washington Post, which is owned by Mr. Bezos, repeatedly pushed aides to punish his main firm, Amazon, by drastically increasing its U.S. Postal Service shipping rates and denying it a multibillion-dollar Pentagon contract. Mr. Trump denounced Qatar as a “funder of terrorism” and isolated it diplomatically. He has not targeted either Mr. Bezos or Qatar in his second term.

至于贝佐斯和卡塔尔，他们都有理由与特朗普搞好关系。在第一个任期内，特朗普对贝佐斯旗下的《华盛顿邮报》的报道感到恼火，多次敦促助手惩罚贝佐斯的主要公司亚马逊，大幅提高其美国邮政服务的运费，并否决了一项价值数十亿美元的五角大楼合同。特朗普谴责卡塔尔是“恐怖主义的资助者”，并在外交上孤立了它。在第二个任期内，他既没有针对贝佐斯，也没有针对卡塔尔。