Over the past three years, Washington has claimed broad power to impose global rules that bar companies anywhere in the world from sending cutting-edge computer chips or the tools needed to make them to China. American officials have argued that approach is necessary to make sure China does not gain the upper hand in the race for advanced artificial intelligence.

过去三年，美国政府宣称拥有广泛权力，可强制推行全球规则，禁止全球任何企业向中国出口尖端计算机芯片及其制造所需设备。美国官员辩称，此举旨在确保中国不会在先进人工智能竞赛中占据上风。

But a sweeping set of restrictions announced by Beijing last week showed that two can play that game.

但中国上周宣布的一系列全面限制措施表明，这一手段并非美国一方所独有。

The Chinese government flexed its own influence over worldwide supply chains when it announced new rules clamping down on the flow of critical minerals that are used in everything from computer chips to cars to missiles. The rules, which are set to take effect later this year, shocked foreign governments and businesses, which may now need to acquire licenses from Beijing to trade their products even outside China.

中国政府通过旨在管控关键矿产流通的新规彰显了其在全球供应链中的影响力。这些矿产广泛应用于计算机芯片、汽车、导弹等各类产品，将于今年晚些时候生效的新规令外国政府和企业震惊——如今即便在境外开展相关产品贸易，可能也需获得北京的许可。

With its dominance over the production of these rare earth minerals and its control of other strategic industries, China may have an even greater ability than the United States to weaponize supply chains, analysts say.

分析人士指出，凭借在稀土矿产生产领域的主导地位以及对其他战略产业的掌控，中国将供应链作为武器的能力可能比美国更强。

“The U.S. now has to face up to the fact it has an adversary which can threaten substantial parts of the U.S. economy,” said Henry Farrell, a political scientist at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The United States and China are now very clearly “in a much more delicate stage of mutual interdependence,” he added.

“美国现在必须面对一个事实：对手有能力威胁到美国经济的多个重要领域，”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院政治学家亨利·法雷尔表示。他还说，美中两国如今显然“处于相互依存的更微妙阶段”。

“China has really begun to figure out how to take a leaf from the U.S. playbook and in a certain sense play that game better than the U.S. is currently playing it,” Mr. Farrell said.

法雷尔说：“中国确实已经开始学会借鉴美国的策略，而且在某种意义上，比美国当前的运用更胜一筹。”

China’s move has rekindled tensions between the world’s two largest economies, with Mr. Trump threatening to increase already substantial tariffs on Chinese imports by imposing an additional 100 percent tax on Nov. 1 unless Beijing backs down from its new restrictions.

中国的这一举措重新点燃了全球两大经济体之间的紧张关系。特朗普威胁称，若北京不撤销新限制措施，将从11月1日起，在已对中国进口商品征收高额关税的基础上额外加征100%关税。

The type of supply chain restriction that China is embarking on first came into play in 2020. Washington dusted off an obscure provision known as the foreign direct product rule to target the Chinese tech giant Huawei, which the U.S. government considered a national security threat. But instead of restricting American technology exports just to Huawei, the United States said any company anywhere in the world could not ship a product to Huawei if it contained U.S. parts or was made with U.S. equipment or software.

中国此次采取的供应链限制模式，最早于2020年由美国率先使用。当时，美国政府启用了一项名为“外国直接产品规则”的冷门条款，目标直指被其视为国家安全威胁的中国科技巨头华为。但美国不仅是限制美国技术向华为出口，更规定全球任何企业若其产品包含美国零部件或使用美国设备及软件制造，均不得向华为提供产品。

Because of the United States’ key role in the global chipmaking industry, the rules basically encompassed all advanced technology. It was a broad exertion of U.S. economic power that became the basis of a series of global tech rules during the Biden administration. Although foreign governments chafed at being told what to do, many cooperated for fear of being cut off from U.S. technology.

由于美国在全球芯片制造产业中占据关键地位，这些规则实际上涵盖了所有先进技术。这是美国经济实力的广泛彰显，并成为拜登政府时期一系列全球科技规则的基础。尽管外国政府对这种发号施令感到不满，但许多国家因担心被切断美国技术供应而选择合作。

The question now is: Will the Chinese restrictions persuade the Trump administration to walk back its tariffs or longstanding technology restrictions, or will China’s government fold under pressure first?

如今的问题是：是中国的限制措施促使特朗普政府撤销关税或长期以来的技术限制，还是中国政府在压力下先妥协？

The administration seemed caught off guard by China’s restrictions, which could cripple American industries. Mr. Trump threatened on Friday to cancel a planned meeting with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, as well as adding a 100 percent tariff. After stock markets plunged, the president posted on social media on Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”

美国政府似乎对中国的限制措施感到措手不及——这些措施可能重创美国产业。特朗普上周五威胁要取消与中国国家主席习近平的原定会面，并加征100%关税。股市暴跌后，总统上周日在社交媒体上发文称：“别担心中国，一切都会好起来！”

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump renewed his barbs, telling a crowd of reporters and the president of Argentina that Mr. Xi “gets testy because China likes to take advantage of people and they can’t take advantage of us.” That afternoon, Mr. Trump wrote on social media that the United States was considering terminating cooking oil imports from China, as well as potentially other business.

周二，特朗普再次发难，在面对一群记者和阿根廷总统时表示，习近平“会变得暴躁，因为中国喜欢占别人便宜，而他们不能占我们的便宜”。当天下午，特朗普在社交媒体上写道，美国正考虑终止从中国进口食用油，并可能终止其他贸易往来。

周三，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（左）与美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔合影。他们称中国针对稀土供应的新规定是全球权力争夺的体现。

On Wednesday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, described the Chinese licensing system as a global power grab and said the United States stood ready to impose its tariffs if China moved forward.

周三上午，财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔称，中国的许可制度是在夺取全球权力，并表示如果中国推进相关措施，美国已准备好实施关税。

“Our expectation is that this never goes into effect,” Mr. Greer said.

“我们的预期是，这项制度永远不会生效，”格里尔说。

Chinese officials have long criticized America's extraterritorial enforcement of economic measures and insisted that Beijing has acted with consistency in the face of renewed threats from Washington.

中国官员长期以来一直批评美国在域外强制执行经济措施的做法，并坚称面对华盛顿的新一轮威胁，中国的行动始终保持了一致性。

“The United States talks about engagement on one hand while resorting to threats and intimidation on the other, imposing steep tariffs and introducing new restrictive measures,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Wednesday. “This is not the right way to engage with China.”

“美方一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓加征高额关税，出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相处的正确之道，”中国外交部发言人林剑周三表示。

Jiang Tianjiao, an associate professor at Fudan University, said that Chinese officials had noted recent efforts by the United States to restart its own rare earth industry and that they wanted to demonstrate their leverage before a possible meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.

复旦大学副教授江天骄表示，中国官员已注意到美国近期重启本土稀土产业的努力，他们希望在特朗普与习近平可能会面之前展示自身的影响力。

U.S. officials and analysts said the impacts of the Chinese licensing system would be much broader than U.S. technology controls, which have targeted only more advanced computer chips.

美国官员和分析人士表示，中国许可制度的影响范围将远大于美国的技术管制——后者仅针对较先进的计算机芯片。

China’s efforts to weaponize supply chains also predate U.S. chip controls, some analysts point out. Concerned about depending on antagonistic nations for oil and technology, the government has for decades carried out plans to build up strategic industries. And in 2010, China cut off rare earth exports to Japan during a maritime dispute.

部分分析人士指出，中国将供应链用作武器的做法早于美国的芯片限制。出于对依赖敌对国家石油和技术的担忧，中国政府数十年来一直推行战略产业培育计划。2010年，在一场海上争端期间，中国曾切断对日本的稀土出口。

It’s not clear when Chinese officials started developing the rare earths licensing system. But Mr. Trump’s aggressive actions — including new fees for Chinese-owned ships that dock at U.S. ports — have given Beijing the opportunity to try out these measures.

目前尚不清楚中国官员何时开始制定稀土许可制度。但特朗普的激进举措——包括对停靠美国港口的中资船只征收新费用——为中国提供了试行这些措施的契机。

In April, after Mr. Trump imposed additional tariffs of 34 percent on China, Beijing rolled out an initial rare earth licensing system for exports to automakers and defense industries. U.S. businesses panicked as mineral supplies dwindled. Ford Motor and other auto companies stopped some production. Mr. Trump responded by escalating his tariffs to a minimum of 145 percent, bringing much trade between the countries to a halt.

今年4月，在特朗普对中国加征34%的额外关税后，中国推出了针对汽车制造商和国防工业的初步稀土出口许可制度。随着矿产供应减少，美国企业陷入恐慌，福特汽车等车企暂停了部分生产。特朗普的回应是将关税提升至最低145%，导致两国间的大量贸易陷入停滞。

In meetings this spring and summer, the countries restored a fragile truce in which the United States reduced its tariffs and China allowed mineral exports to flow more easily. But the United States has continued to issue technology controls, prompting painful countermeasures by China.

在今年春夏的会谈中，两国恢复了脆弱的休战状态：美国降低了关税，中国则让矿产出口更加顺畅。但美国仍在持续出台技术限制措施，引发了中国采取令人痛苦的反制措施。

China’s much more expansive minerals licensing system followed a Sept. 29 move by the United States to expand trade restrictions to the subsidiaries of any company on the so-called entity list, which restricts the kind of U.S. technology they can buy.

9月29日，美国将贸易限制扩大至所谓实体清单上企业的子公司，限制它们购买美国技术的类型，随后，中国推出此次更为全面的矿产许可制度。

Analysts say Chinese officials viewed the move as disrupting a tentative thaw after Mr. Trump spoke with Mr. Xi by phone less than two weeks earlier and said they had agreed to a preliminary deal to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations from its Chinese parent company.

分析人士称，中国官员认为，此举破坏了此前的试探性缓和——不到两周前，特朗普与习近平通电话，表示已就TikTok美国业务从其中国母公司剥离达成初步协议。

Beijing responded with other restrictive measures, too. It announced controls on equipment needed to make batteries for electric cars, opened an antimonopoly investigation into the U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm, imposed additional port fees on U.S. ships and added several American businesses to a restricted trade list.

中国还采取了其他限制性措施作为回应：宣布对电动汽车电池生产所需设备实施管制、对美国芯片制造商高通发起反垄断调查、对美国船只加征港口费用，并将多家美国企业列入贸易限制清单。

But the mineral restrictions stand out for the authority they allow Beijing to claim over the global supply of the tiny chips that power virtually all electronics.

但矿产限制措施尤为引人注目，因为它赋予中国政府对全球微型芯片供应的管控权——这些芯片驱动着几乎所有电子产品的运转。

“It scares the rest of the world how far China is willing to go in upending the global supply chain,” said Xiaomeng Lu, a director with Eurasia Group, a political consultancy and research group in Washington.

“中国在颠覆全球供应链方面无所不用其极，这让世界其他国家感到恐慌，”华盛顿政治咨询与研究机构欧亚集团主任鲁小萌表示。

Chris Miller, a professor at Tufts University and the author of “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,” said that the implications of China’s news licensing system could be “extraordinarily broad,” affecting almost all semiconductors made globally.

塔夫茨大学教授、《芯片战争——世界最关键技术的争夺战》(Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology)一书作者克里斯·米勒表示，中国新许可制度的影响可能“极为广泛”，几乎会波及全球制造的所有半导体。

Companies and governments in the United States, Europe, Japan, India, South Korea and elsewhere are also concerned about the extensive corporate information that the Chinese government is requesting in the licensing process.

中国政府在许可申请过程中会要求提供大量企业信息，对此美国、欧洲、日本、印度、韩国等国家和地区的企业及政府也表达了担忧。

Foreseeing “a lot of resistance” to providing that information, Dr. Miller said it could accelerate efforts to build non-Chinese supply chains for rare earths. The argument is similar to one that critics of U.S. technology controls have long made, that they could push the world to adopt non-U.S. chip technology.

米勒表示，预计要求提供信息将面临“巨大阻力”，这可能会加速构建非中国主导的稀土供应链。这一观点与美国技术限制的批评者长期以来的论调相似——即美国的技术限制可能促使全球采用非美国的芯片技术。

The United States and China are each leveraging a supply chain that the other has struggled for years to boost domestically. But while China has spent billions on its chip industry, spurring the growth of its own chipmakers, the United States could need years to restart rare earth production.

美中两国各自利用的供应链，都是对方多年来难以在本土提升的领域。但是，中国已在芯片产业投入数十亿美元，推动本土芯片制造商发展，美国可能仍需数年时间才能重启稀土生产。

“If China is able to get around the chip restrictions but it takes the U.S. longer to get around the rare earths controls, that’s going to be a big problem for the United States,” said Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“如果中国能够规避芯片限制，而美国需要更长时间才能摆脱稀土管制的影响，那对美国来说将是个大问题，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员马丁·科尔泽帕表示。

Yeling Tan, a professor at Oxford University, said the events of the past months had put China in a stronger negotiating position than the one it held during the first Trump administration. But she said the controls “might end up being costly for China, in terms of how the extraterritorial requirements might alarm other trading partners.”

牛津大学教授谭叶凌表示，过去几个月的事态发展，使中国处于比特朗普第一任期时更强的谈判地位。但她表示，就“域外适用条款可能引发其他贸易伙伴的担忧”而言，这些管制措施“最终可能让中国付出代价”。

“This threatens to undermine China’s credibility as a reliable trading nation," she said. “It is an incredibly delicate balance to strike.”

“这可能会损害中国作为可靠贸易伙伴的信誉，”她说，“这是一种极其微妙的平衡。”

The Trump administration is seeking to counter new economic measures from China by exerting more control over American companies in key strategic sectors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday.

财长斯科特·贝森特周三表示，特朗普政府正寻求通过加强对美国关键战略行业企业的掌控，来反制中国出台的新经济措施。

The approach marks a new era of industrial policy in the United States, a contrast to how policymakers have traditionally valued free markets and open investment. But as China’s dominance over the production of rare-earth minerals and battery technology grows, President Trump wants to take a page out of Beijing’s economic strategy. By taking more stakes in American companies that specialize in areas deemed critical to national security, the Trump administration aims to exert more control over what they produce. The goal is for the U.S. to become less reliant on China for sensitive technology that it has been using as leverage in trade negotiations.

这一做法标志着美国进入一个新的产业政策时代，与传统上政策制定者推崇的自由市场与开放投资理念形成鲜明对比。但随着中国在稀土矿产和电池技术生产领域的主导地位不断增强，特朗普总统希望借鉴北京的经济策略。通过更多入股被视为关乎国家安全的美国企业，特朗普政府旨在对这些企业的生产方向施加更大控制力。其目标是减少美国在敏感技术领域对中国的依赖——这些技术一直被中国作为贸易谈判的筹码。

“When you are facing a nonmarket economy like China, then you have to exercise industrial policies,” Mr. Bessent said at a forum on investing in America sponsored by CNBC.

贝森特在CNBC主办的“投资美国”论坛上表示：“当你面对像中国这样的非市场经济体时，就必须实施产业政策。”

Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have rapidly escalated after the Chinese government last week proposed a new licensing system to cover the global trade in products that contain trace amounts of Chinese rare-earth minerals, or minerals mined or processed using Chinese technology.

中美这两个全球最大经济体之间的紧张关系在近期迅速升级。上周，中国政府提出一项新的许可制度，要求全球所有含有微量中国稀土元素或采用中国技术开采加工矿物的产品贸易，都需获得北京批准。

The rules, which would go into effect later this year, shocked foreign governments and businesses, who would theoretically need to seek licenses from Beijing to trade in products ranging from cars to computer chips, even outside of Chinese borders. The system would also deny shipments to any U.S. and European defense or weapons manufacturers, who are still highly dependent on Chinese minerals.

这项预计将在今年晚些时候生效的规定令各国政府和企业震惊，这在理论上意味着从汽车到计算机芯片等产品即使在中国境外交易，也必须向中国申请许可。该制度还将禁止向仍高度依赖中国矿物的欧美国防及武器制造商供货。

On Friday, Mr. Trump responded by threatening to put an additional 100 percent tariff on products from China on Nov. 1 and cancel an upcoming meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. After the announcements caused the stock market to plummet, Mr. Trump quickly qualified his statements. He said he might meet Mr. Xi anyway and wrote on social media on Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”

作为回应，特朗普在上周五威胁称，将于11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税，并取消与中国领导人习近平即将举行的会晤。表态导致股市暴跌后，特朗普很快缓和了语气，表示他仍可能与习近平会面，并于周日在社交媒体上发文称：“不必担心中国，一切都会好起来的！”

The Treasury secretary pointed to China’s announcement last week of new export controls on rare-earth minerals as a reason the United States must exert more state control over corporations. “When we get an announcement like this week with China on the rare earths, you realize we have to be self-sufficient, or we have to be sufficient with our allies,” Mr. Bessent said.

贝森特指出，中国上周宣布的稀土出口管制正是美国必须加强对企业管控的原因。“当我们看到中国本周宣布的稀土新规时，就会意识到必须实现自给自足，或至少需与盟国共同保障供应，”贝森特强调。

The Trump administration has taken stakes in several companies including U.S. Steel, Intel, as well as Trilogy Metals and MP Materials, a rare-earth mining company. Mr. Trump has also demanded cuts of revenue from sales of chips that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices earn from China.

特朗普政府已通过入股多家企业实施该战略，包括美国钢铁、英特尔、Trilogy Metals以及稀土开采企业MP Materials。特朗普还要求从英伟达和AMD在华芯片销售的收入中抽取分成。

The United States has been trying to catch up in the race for critical minerals, which are crucial for advanced technologies including weaponry, airplanes and computer chips. Mr. Bessent noted that the development of a “strategic mineral reserve” is a priority and said that JPMorgan Chase was interested in working with the administration on the initiative.

美国一直在努力追赶关键矿产领域的竞争——这些矿产对包括武器、飞机和电脑芯片在内的先进技术至关重要。贝森特指出，建立“战略矿产储备”是当务之急，并透露摩根大通有意与政府合作推动这一计划。

Mr. Bessent said that the Trump administration had identified seven industries that it considered of strategic importance where the United States could seek to exert more government control. He pointed specifically to the defense sector, where in some cases the U.S. government is the largest or only customer of certain companies, and said that the administration could insist that companies spend more money on research and less on stock buybacks.

贝森特表示，特朗普政府已确定七个具有战略重要性的产业，美国将在这些领域寻求加强政府控制。他特别提及国防工业——在某些领域美国政府是某些企业的最大甚至唯一客户，因此政府可以要求这些企业将更多资金用于研发，而不是回购股票。

“I do think our defense companies are woefully behind in terms of deliveries,” Mr. Bessent said.

“我确实认为，我们的国防企业在交付方面严重落后，”贝森特坦言。

The United States would use “price floors” and “forward buying” across a “range of industries,” he added, to ensure that China does not dominate other sectors the way it has with the processing and refining of rare earths.

他补充道，美国将在“多个行业”设置“价格下限”和实施“预购机制”，以确保中国不会像主导稀土加工与精炼那样在其他领域取得垄断地位。

The push for greater government control over the private sector is a policy that he has criticized in the past.

这种加强政府干预私营领域的政策取向，恰是贝森特过往屡次抨击的做法。

Last year, Mr. Bessent delivered a speech at the Manhattan Institute deriding the Biden administration’s subsidies of strategic sectors such as semiconductors as “central planning.” At a news conference at the Treasury Department on Wednesday, Mr. Bessent scolded China for deploying similar tactics.

去年，在曼哈顿研究所发表演讲时，他曾讽刺拜登政府对半导体等战略行业的补贴政策是“中央计划”。然而在周三财政部的记者会上，贝森特又严厉批评中国采取类似策略。

“They are a state economy,” Mr. Bessent said. “We are not going to let a group of bureaucrats in Beijing try to manage the global supply chains.”

他说：“他们是一个国家主导型经济体。我们绝不会任由北京的一群官僚试图操控全球供应链。”

Mr. Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, appeared to escalate trade tensions with China by publicly rebuking their new controls as economic coercion. They accused China of violating the terms of a trade truce reached this year and said that Mr. Trump would not back down from the 100 percent tariffs that he threatened in retaliation even if the trade dispute causes the stock market to tumble.

贝森特与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔公开谴责中国新的出口管控属于经济胁迫，这似乎进一步加剧了美中贸易紧张局势。他们指责中国违反了今年达成的贸易休战协议，并强调即使贸易争端引发股市震荡，特朗普也绝不会撤回威胁实施的100%报复性关税。

Mr. Bessent, in particular, struck a combative tone, assailing a Chinese trade official, Li Chenggang, in unusually personal terms. He suggested that Mr. Li was a “slightly unhinged” economic diplomat who had gone “rogue” in rolling out the new export measures.

贝森特的言辞格外强硬，尤其以罕见的个人化措辞抨击中国贸易官员李成钢，称其是一名“有点不正常”的经济外交官，在推出新的出口管制措施方面“任意妄为”。

The rising tension between America and China comes as global policymakers are gathering in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. While the Trump administration has spent much of the year threatening U.S. allies with steep tariffs, Mr. Bessent suggested that he now wanted to work with those countries to confront China over its economic practices.

美中关系日趋紧张之际，全球政策制定者正齐聚华盛顿，参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会。尽管特朗普政府今年多数时间都在以高额关税威胁美国盟友，但贝森特暗示，当前希望与这些国家携手应对中国的经济行为。

Mr. Greer criticized China’s new restrictions as “an exercise in economic coercion on every country in the world.” Because critical minerals and semiconductors made with them are in so many products, he said, “this rule gives China control over basically the entire global economy and the technology supply chain,” including not only A.I. and high-tech products but also cars, smartphones and even household appliances.

美国贸易代表格里尔批评中国的新限制措施是“对世界各国的经济胁迫行径”。他指出，由于关键矿物及其制造的半导体广泛应用于众多产品，“这项规定相当于让中国掌控了整个全球经济和技术供应链”，不仅涵盖人工智能和高科技产品，还包括汽车、智能手机乃至家用电器。

Mr. Greer said that the United States complied with the terms of the economic truce it had struck with the Chinese this year. The United States had already drafted its paperwork to add tariffs to Chinese products, and would proceed with that if the Chinese licensing system went into effect later this year.

格里尔表示，美国已遵守今年与中国达成的经济休战协议条款。美国已完成对中国商品加征关税的文书起草工作，若中国的许可证制度在今年晚些时候如期生效，美国将立即实施相应关税措施。

“Our expectation is that this never goes into effect,” Mr. Greer said.

他说：“我们的预期是，这项制度永远不会生效。”

The countries have also clashed over a U.S. move to impose fees on Chinese-owned ships docking in American ports, a policy U.S. officials say is geared at revitalizing American shipbuilding. Non-Chinese shipping lines must also pay the fees when they send Chinese-built ships to American ports. Those went into effect on Tuesday,

两国还就美国对停靠美国港口的中国所有船舶征收费用一事产生冲突，美国官员表示，此举旨在重振美国的造船业。非中国航运企业使用中国制造的船舶停靠美国港口，也必须缴纳这笔费用，该政策已于周二正式生效。

The Chinese government has threatened to hit American vessels with similar fees, and on Tuesday it imposed sanctions on five subsidiaries of Hanwha, a South Korean company that is helping the United States build ships. The order, which took effect immediately, prohibits Chinese companies or individuals from doing business with the Hanwha units.

中国政府则威胁将对美国船舶征收类似费用，并于周二宣布制裁协助美国造船的韩国韩华集团五家子公司。该命令立即生效，禁止中国企业与个人与这些韩华子公司进行任何商业往来。

Despite the strident tone from the United States, Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are still expected to meet in South Korea this month. Mr. Bessent also said that there were “working level” meetings taking place between U.S. and Chinese officials on the sidelines of the I.M.F. meetings this week.

尽管美方语气强硬，但外界普遍预计特朗普与习近平仍将于本月在韩国会面。贝森特还透露，本周在IMF年会期间，美中双方官员正在举行“工作层面”的磋商。

China’s decision to tighten export controls on rare earth metals was not only about strengthening its grip on the world’s supply of the crucial minerals. It was also a high-stakes ploy to jolt President Trump into paying attention to what Beijing felt were attempts by his subordinates to sabotage a U.S.-China détente, analysts say.

分析人士认为，中国决定加强对稀土金属的出口管制，不仅是为了加强其对全球关键矿产供应的掌控，也是一种高风险策略，目的是促使特朗普总统关注北京认为的特朗普下属阻挠美中缓和关系的企图。

Evidently, it worked: Mr. Trump has redirected his focus toward trade with China. But China’s move also unnerved governments and businesses in Europe, and sparked another round of tit-for-tat trade blows, rattling stock markets.

显然，这一策略奏效了：特朗普已将注意力重新转向与中国的贸易问题。但中国的这一举动也让欧洲各国政府和企业感到不安，并引发了新一轮的贸易报复，导致股市动荡。

Days after Mr. Trump said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods next month, China added five American subsidiaries of a South Korean shipping company to its sanctions list. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump threatened to cut off U.S. purchases of Chinese cooking oil.

在特朗普表示下个月将对中国商品征收100%关税的几天后，中国将一家韩国航运公司的五家美国子公司列入了制裁名单。周二，特朗普威胁要切断美国对中国食用油的采购。

By Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the U.S. government would counter Chinese economic measures by exerting more control over private American businesses in key strategic sectors.

到周三，财政部长贝森特表示，美国政府将通过对关键战略领域的美国私营企业实施更多控制，来应对中国的经济措施。

The escalating tensions threaten to wipe out any progress the two sides have made in the past five months to roll back punitive measures they had taken against each other. They also raise the question of whether Beijing pushed its strategy too far by making clear that China will use the minerals as a geopolitical weapon.

双方过去五个月里在取消各自的惩罚性措施上所取得的进展可能在不断升级的紧张局势下化为乌有。这也引发了一个问题：北京明确表示将把稀土作为一种地缘政治武器，是否导致其策略用力过猛？

中国包头市，一个因稀土开采而枯竭的湖泊，湖中堆积着开采稀土后剩余的矿渣。背景中可见稀土精炼厂、钢铁厂和化工厂。

China was reacting to a Sept. 29 decision by the U.S. Department of Commerce to expand the number of companies, including potentially Chinese ones, blacklisted from acquiring American technology. That move surprised Beijing, which thought the countries had reached a truce in their trade war after four rounds of negotiations and a Sept. 19 phone call between Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, and Mr. Trump, Chinese analysts said.

中国此举是对美国商务部9月29日决定的回应。该决定扩大了禁止收购美国技术的黑名单企业范围，其中可能包括中国企业。中国问题分析人士称，这一举动让北京感到意外，在经过四轮谈判以及中国领导人习近平与特朗普9月19日的电话通话后，北京认为两国在贸易战中已达成休战。

Flexing China’s control over rare earths — akin to poking Mr. Trump in the eye — may also have been intended by Mr. Xi to demonstrate his strength to a domestic audience before a crucial meeting of Communist Party leaders next week.

习近平此举可能还意在向国内民众展示实力——在中共高层的下周关键会议前夕，通过展示中国对稀土的掌控力——此举就像直戳特朗普的眼睛——彰显自身力量。

“If you are the leader and you just had a phone conversation” with the U.S. president, “and then 10 days later, they slapped you on your face, what would you do ahead of a major political event?” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“如果你是领导人，你刚刚和美国总统通了电话，”复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯说，“然后过了10天，他们打了你的脸，在一场重大政治活动之前，你会怎么做？”

Chinese state media have hailed rare earths as the ultimate weapon in trade negotiations with the United States, with one television commentator saying the restrictions dealt a “fatal blow.”

中国官方媒体称赞稀土是与美国贸易谈判中的终极武器，一位电视评论员称这些限制措施是“致命一击”。

9月，美国财政部长贝森特在马德里与中国国务院副总理何立峰举行贸易会谈后接受媒体采访。

Analysts who have spoken to Chinese officials said that Beijing believed that the Commerce Department move — which would target thousands of Chinese companies — was the work of hawkish members of the Trump administration. The sense in Beijing was that Mr. Trump, who was focused on Gaza peace talks and the U.S. government shutdown, needed to be made aware of the consequences of these moves.

与中国官员交谈过的分析人士表示，北京认为，美国商务部的这一举措——将针对数以千计的中国公司——是特朗普政府中鹰派成员所为。北京的感觉是，专注于加沙和平谈判和美国政府停摆的特朗普需要意识到这些举措的后果。

“By launching a very strong counterattack on the U.S. side, Beijing is reminding Donald Trump that you have to take a hands-on approach to relations with China” and not let “hawkish people” derail relations between the two countries, Professor Wu said.

“通过对美方发起非常强烈的反击，北京正在提醒唐纳德·特朗普，必须亲自处理与中国的关系”，而不是放任“鹰派人士”破坏两国关系，吴心伯说。

Beijing was particularly aggrieved because it felt it had shown good will to the Trump administration by agreeing to allow the sale of TikTok, the analysts said.

分析人士称，北京尤其感到忿忿不平的是，它觉得已经通过同意允许出售TikTok向特朗普政府展示了善意。

The question now is whether Beijing’s gambit will succeed in getting the Trump administration to back down, or if it results in a full-blown trade war that could lead to a global slowdown. Already, it has led to a broader backlash, with the European Union trade commissioner accusing China of weaponizing its hold on the minerals and urging the European bloc to coordinate with Group of 7 nations to push back against the restrictions.

现在的问题是，北京这一策略是否会成功让特朗普政府退缩，或是导致一场全面的贸易战，进而可能引发全球经济放缓。此举已经引起了更广泛的反弹，欧盟贸易专员指责中国将其对稀土的控制武器化，并敦促欧盟与七国集团统一行动，反对这些限制措施。

“The Chinese miscalculated,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who is currently visiting Beijing. “People around the world saw the rules and were shocked and considered it an overreaction.”

“中国误判了形势，”目前正在北京访问的华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。“全世界看到这些规定都感到震惊，认为这是一种过度反应。”

For China, threatening to cut off access to its rare earth minerals has been its ace card against the United States.

对中国来说，威胁切断稀土供应一直是其对抗美国的王牌。

Beijing controls most of the world’s supply of those metals, which are needed for virtually every modern-day technology, including semiconductors, robots and jets. Earlier this year, the same tactic helped persuade the Trump administration to suspend its threat to impose sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods.

北京控制着世界上大部分稀土金属供应，而稀土几乎是所有现代科技中的必需品，包括半导体、机器人和喷气式飞机。今年早些时候，同样的策略帮助说服特朗普政府暂停了对中国商品征收高额关税的威胁。

本月抵达加利福尼亚州奥克兰港的一艘集装箱船。

But this time, China went a step further. It extended its controls extraterritorially, meaning that exporters anywhere in the world would have to apply for a license to sell products with even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths.

但这一次，中国更进一步。它将控制范围扩大到了域外，这意味着世界上任何地方的出口商如果要销售哪怕含有微量中国稀土的产品，都必须申请许可证。

It is probably not a coincidence that China is taking such an assertive posture ahead of a Communist Party meeting to lay out the blueprint for the country’s plan for the coming five years.

中国在一场共产党会议前夕采取如此强硬的姿态，很可能并非巧合，这次会议将为国家未来五年的计划制定蓝图。

Chinese leaders typically want to project stability and strength during the meetings to burnish their legitimacy, analysts say.

分析人士称，中国领导人通常希望在会议期间展现稳定和实力，以彰显其执政合法性。

“You have to respond strongly so that you can — I wouldn’t say save face — but you have to consolidate your political position and show to a domestic audience that you are strong enough to protect China’s national interests in the face of the provocation,” Prof. Wu added.

“你必须做出强烈回应，这样你才能——我不会说挽回面子——但你必须巩固政治地位，并向国内民众表明，面对挑衅，你有足够的力量捍卫中国的国家利益，”吴心伯说。

With tensions heating up again, it is unclear if Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea later this month, as had been anticipated.

随着紧张局势再次升温，目前尚不清楚特朗普和习近平是否会像预期的那样，本月晚些时候在于韩国举行的亚太经合组织峰会期间进行会晤。

韩国总统李在明于8月在费城一家由韩华集团拥有的造船厂发表讲话。该集团是韩国一家综合企业集团，已被中国政府列入黑名单。

Both sides continued to up the ante in the past week. They began charging higher port entry fees for each other’s shipping firms. The Chinese government blacklisted five American subsidiaries of the South Korean shipping company Hanwha, accusing the subsidiaries of “supporting and assisting” the United States in its moves in the shipbuilding industry.

在过去一周，双方继续升级对抗。两国开始对彼此的航运公司收取更高的港口准入费。中国政府将韩国韩华集团的五家美国子公司列入黑名单，指控这些子公司“支持和协助”美国在造船业的行动。

Mr. Trump said in a Truth Social post that Beijing was harming American soybean farmers. He threatened to restrict more trade with China, including by boycotting Chinese cooking oil.

特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，北京正在伤害美国大豆农民。他威胁要限制更多与中国的贸易，包括抵制中国食用油。

U.S. analysts say that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce appeared to be aware that it may have overreached, as the ministry sought to reassure the world that the new controls would not be used widely and did not represent a blanket ban, even as it vowed to fight back against any tariffs.

美国分析人士称，中国商务部似乎意识到自己可能采取了过度措施，因为商务部试图向世界保证，新的管制措施不会广泛使用，也不代表全面禁令，同时它发誓要对任何关税进行反击。

China was overly confident that it could get Washington to walk back its latest sanctions and, at the same time, avert any global blowback, analysts said.

分析人士称，中国过于自信，认为自己能够让华盛顿撤回其最新的制裁措施，同时避免任何全球范围的反弹。

本月，马里兰州科尔多瓦市一片即将收割的大豆田旁，一位农民正准备收割。中国曾是美国大豆出口的最大买家，如今却暂停了订单。

But China can ill afford more trade tensions on top of its existing troubles with the United States. Exports are among the few engines of growth for a Chinese economy suffering from a prolonged property crisis and a deflationary spiral, caused by overproduction in key industries and falling prices.

然而，在中美关系本已存在诸多问题的情况下，中国也承受不起更多的贸易紧张局势。面对关键产业产能过剩和价格下跌引发的长期房地产危机与通缩螺旋，出口是中国经济为数不多的增长动力之一。

Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama, said China could have pushed back without threatening economic coercion against its geopolitical rivals.

乔治敦大学亚洲研究教授、前奥巴马总统亚洲顾问麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)表示，中国本可以在不威胁对其地缘政治对手进行经济胁迫的情况下进行反击。

“This is a hell of a way to get Trump’s attention,” Prof. Medeiros said. “You get somebody’s attention by waving your hands in the air, not by arming yourself to the teeth and just promising you’re not going to use a 50-caliber machine gun on them.”

“这是一种吸引特朗普关注的糟糕方式，”麦艾文说。“你应该通过在空中挥手来引起别人的注意，而不是先全副武装，然后保证你不会用50口径的机枪对付别人。”

The new rare earths export controls, which are modeled after U.S. export controls, were likely developed well in advance of their unveiling, experts said. Some analysts say that suggests Beijing was merely looking for a pretext — like the new Commerce Department rules — to deploy the new measures.

专家表示，仿照了美国出口管制措施的新稀土出口管制措施很可能是早已制定好的。一些分析人士认为，这表明北京只是在寻找一个借口——比如商务部的新规定——来实施这些新措施。

“Xi fundamentally doesn’t want to give the U.S. rare earths, or really any ‘strategic materials’ it has,” said Kirsten Asdal, head of the China-focused consultancy firm Asdal Advisory. “The party has articulated that the country that controls the upstream inputs will enjoy the ability to develop the most advanced technology and keep it from others.”

“习近平从根本上不想把稀土——或者说它拥有的任何‘战略物资’提供给美国，”研究中国问题的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询负责人柯尔斯滕·阿斯达尔说。“中共已经明确表示，控制了上游输入的国家将有能力开发最先进的技术，并阻止其他国家获得这些技术。”

On a humid June night last year, Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, held court with several of his company’s major Asian customers at a bar with sweeping views of Taipei. They stood and toasted the booming artificial intelligence industry.

去年6月一个湿热的夜晚，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在台北一家俯瞰全城的酒吧与公司几位主要亚洲客户相聚。众人起身举杯，庆贺人工智能行业的蓬勃发展。

Next to the Nvidia chief was a woman named Huang Le, or Alice Huang, an executive of a Singapore-based data center company called Megaspeed, which was poised to buy $2 billion of Nvidia A.I. technology over the next year.

站在黄仁勋身旁的女性名为黄乐（音），英文名爱丽丝·黄，她是新加坡数据中心公司Megaspeed的高管。该公司计划在未来一年内采购价值20亿美元的英伟达人工智能技术。

Though Ms. Huang and Megaspeed are little-known players in the A.I. industry, their association with Nvidia and its chief executive has recently become a preoccupation in Washington.

尽管黄乐与Megaspeed在人工智能行业中鲜为人知，但他们与英伟达及其首席执行官的关联近来已成为华盛顿关注的焦点。

Commerce Department officials have been investigating whether Megaspeed, which has close ties to Chinese tech firms, is helping companies in China sidestep American export restrictions, according to more than a half dozen current and former officials and other people familiar with the companies, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an examination that is not public.

据六位以上现任及前任官员、以及其他了解这些公司情况的人士透露（因讨论尚未公开的调查，他们要求匿名），美国商务部官员一直在调查与中国科技公司关系密切的Megaspeed是否在帮助中国企业规避美国出口限制。

The inquiry, which is active, calls into question how closely Nvidia is tracking where its A.I. chips end up and highlights the possibility of American export laws easily being sidestepped. Megaspeed is also facing scrutiny from Singaporean police, who told The New York Times in a statement that they are investigating the company for breaching local laws, without elaborating further.

这项仍在进行中的调查不仅让人怀疑英伟达对其人工智能芯片最终流向的追踪成效欠佳，也凸显出美国出口法存在轻易被规避的可能。Megaspeed同时还在接受新加坡警方的审查，后者在给《纽约时报》的声明中表示，正就该公司“违反当地法律”展开调查，但未进一步详述。

As the dominant provider of artificial intelligence chips, Nvidia’s annual revenue has soared nearly sevenfold in the past four years, making it the world’s most valuable publicly traded company. But the Silicon Valley company’s meteoric rise has coincided with U.S. government concerns that its chips could help adversaries like China develop new weapons, surveil dissidents and leap ahead of the United States in A.I. development.

作为人工智能芯片的主导供应商，英伟达的年收入在过去四年飙升近七倍，成为全球市值最高的上市公司。但这家硅谷企业飞速崛起之际，美国政府正在担忧其芯片可能帮助中国等对手研发新型武器、监控异见人士，并在人工智能发展领域超越美国。

Those concerns led both the Biden and Trump administrations to crack down on A.I. chip sales to China. But some Chinese companies employ global networks of middlemen and shell companies to sidestep those limits. In a legal gray area, some have built vast data centers in Southeast Asia that have fueled China’s gains in A.I.

出于这些担忧，拜登和特朗普政府均对向中国出售人工智能芯片实施限制。但部分中国企业通过全球中间商网络和空壳公司规避这些限制。在法律灰色地带，一些企业还在东南亚建造大型数据中心，为中国人工智能发展提供动力。

Other Chinese companies have set up illegal smuggling networks, moving perhaps hundreds of thousands of blocked chips into China, experts estimate. In April, the House Select Committee on China opened an investigation into Nvidia’s sale of chips to China and Southeast Asia. Nvidia has expanded its operations in Taiwan in recent years, but it remains firmly anchored to Silicon Valley, where it was founded more than three decades ago.

专家估计，另有一些中国企业建立非法走私网络，可能将数十万枚被禁芯片运入中国。今年4月，美国众议院中国问题特别委员会启动对英伟达向中国及东南亚出售芯片的调查。近年来，英伟达虽扩大了在台湾的业务，但仍牢牢扎根于30多年前它起家的硅谷。

Megaspeed在新加坡的办公室，最近一个工作日，办公室里只有两名员工。

Megaspeed illustrates the challenges facing U.S. government officials trying to keep China from accessing powerful A.I. chips. After splitting off from a Chinese gaming company in 2023, Megaspeed set up a subsidiary in Malaysia that quickly snapped up nearly $2 billion worth of Nvidia’s most advanced products. Most of those chips came from the U.S. branch of a Chinese company that has already been sanctioned for providing technology to the Chinese military, according to records obtained through ImportGenius, a trade data platform.

Megaspeed的案例凸显了美国政府在阻止中国获取高性能人工智能芯片方面面临的挑战。2023年，Megaspeed从一家中国游戏公司拆分出来后在马来西亚成立子公司，迅速采购了价值近20亿美元的英伟达最先进产品。贸易数据平台ImportGenius获取的记录显示，这些芯片大部分来自一家中国公司的美国分公司，该中国公司此前因向中国军方提供技术已被列入制裁名单。

Megaspeed has funneled those chips to data centers in Malaysia and Indonesia that appear to remotely serve customers in China. That is not necessarily illegal, but it can be found unlawful if it is done on behalf of a Chinese company. U.S. officials have also been scrutinizing whether Megaspeed diverted some of those chips on to China, in violation of U.S. law, two people familiar with the company said.

Megaspeed将这些芯片输送至马来西亚和印度尼西亚的数据中心，而这些数据中心似乎为中国客户提供远程服务。此举本身未必违法，但如果是代中国公司行事，则可能被认定为非法。两位了解该公司情况的人士表示，美国官员还在调查Megaspeed是否存在违反美国法律、将部分芯片转运至中国的行为。

The Times visited sites in four countries, reviewed shipment records, business registrations, videos and photographs, and interviewed more than 30 people to shed light on Megaspeed’s opaque operation. Reporters tracked business listings that led to a Malaysian data center and shopping mall, a near-empty office in Singapore and a dilapidated storefront outside Kuala Lumpur.

为揭示Megaspeed不透明运营的模式，《纽约时报》走访了四个国家的相关地点，查阅货运记录、商业注册文件、视频及照片，并采访了30余人。记者通过企业登记信息追踪到马来西亚的一处数据中心和一家购物中心、新加坡的一间近乎空置的办公室，以及吉隆坡郊外一间破旧的店面。

Nvidia said there was no evidence that its chips had been smuggled into China. John Rizzo, a spokesman for Nvidia, said in a statement that the chipmaker had “engaged with the U.S. government” regarding Megaspeed. Nvidia’s compliance team also looked into Megaspeed and determined it was “wholly owned and operated by a company based and headquartered outside China, with no China shareholders,” he said.

英伟达表示，没有证据表明其芯片被走私至中国。英伟达发言人约翰·里佐在声明中称，英伟达“已就Megaspeed事宜与美国政府沟通”。他表示，英伟达合规团队也对Megaspeed展开调查，确认其“由总部位于中国境外的公司全资拥有和运营，无中国股东”。

Mr. Rizzo said Nvidia had visited Megaspeed’s facilities multiple times. During a visit this week, he said Nvidia employees “found no evidence of diversion, and confirmed what we previously observed — Megaspeed is running a small commercial cloud, like many other companies throughout the world, as allowed by U.S. export control rules.”

里佐称，英伟达已多次考察Megaspeed的设施。他表示，在本周的一次考察中，英伟达员工“未发现任何转运证据，并证实了此前的观察结果——Megaspeed正像全球许多其他公司一样，在符合美国出口管制规则的前提下运营小型商业云服务”。

Megaspeed said in an emailed statement that it “is a Singapore-based company, operating fully in compliance with all applicable laws, including U.S. export control regulations.” It declined to comment further. Ms. Huang did not respond to requests for comment.

Megaspeed在电子邮件声明中表示，“本公司是总部位于新加坡的企业，完全遵守包括美国出口管制条例在内的所有适用法律。”但拒绝进一步置评。黄乐未回应置评请求。

The Commerce Department, which oversees export controls, said it did not comment on active enforcement matters and could not confirm or deny the existence of any pending investigations. It added that the Trump administration would aggressively investigate allegations of wrongdoing and that exporters should perform due diligence and investigate any red flags. The White House did not provide a comment.

负责监管出口管制的美国商务部表示不会对正在进行的执法事项置评，也无法证实或否认任何未决调查的存在。该部门还表示，特朗普政府将积极调查违规行为指控，出口商应开展尽职调查，并对任何警示信号进行排查。白宫未予置评。

Singapore’s Ministry of Home Affairs declined to comment. The Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry in Malaysia said that the country had recently strengthened its oversight of the export of A.I. chips and that it maintained an active dialogue with the United States about its controls.

新加坡内政部拒绝置评。马来西亚投资、贸易和工业部表示，该国近期已加强对人工智能芯片出口的监管，并就相关管制措施与美国保持积极对话。

Aaron Bartnick, an assistant director for technology security and governance under the Biden administration, said Megaspeed raised “many red flags,” including its ownership claims and possible ties to sanctioned entities, that should have made Nvidia’s executives question whether they should have permitted the company to have access to its A.I. chips. “It’s hard to see a justification for taking that risk,” he said.

拜登政府时期曾任技术安全与治理助理主任的亚伦·巴特尼克表示，Megaspeed存在“诸多警示信号”，包括其所有权声明及与受制裁实体的潜在关联，这些本应让英伟达高管质疑是否应允许该公司获取其人工智能芯片。“很难找到承担这种风险的合理理由，”他说。

From China to Singapore

从中国到新加坡

Megaspeed was created in 2023 when 7Road, a Chinese gaming and cloud computing company with ties to state-backed investors, split off its overseas operation in Singapore and renamed it Megaspeed.

Megaspeed成立于2023年，当时与中国国家支持的投资者有关联的中国游戏及云计算公司第七大道将其新加坡海外业务剥离并更名为Megaspeed。

Megaspeed listed Ms. Huang as its managing director for its first eight months before removing her from that role in its corporate paperwork. (She has also described herself as the company’s chief executive.) The company’s current director is from Singapore but is based in Shanghai, according to business records and his social media account.

在成立初期的八个月里，Megaspeed的企业文件显示黄乐担任董事总经理，后来不再担任该职位（但她此前也曾自称公司首席执行官）。商业记录及其社交媒体账号显示，该公司现任董事为新加坡人，但常驻上海。

Companies around the world were scrambling to buy the Nvidia chips used to build ChatGPT, which was released in November 2022. And the U.S. government was setting up a technological dragnet to stop advanced chip sales to China.

2022年11月ChatGPT发布后，全球企业纷纷抢购用于搭建该类产品的英伟达芯片；与此同时，美国政府正构建技术封锁网，阻止向中国出售先进芯片。

It is not clear when Mr. Huang and Ms. Huang, who are not related, first met. She was mingling with a crowd of tech executives just after midnight at the Taipei bar in early June of last year when she offered to ask Mr. Huang of Nvidia to join them, recalled Parker Schmitt, an executive who was with the group.

目前尚不清楚黄仁勋与黄乐（两人无亲属关系）首次会面的时间。去年6月初午夜之后，当黄乐在台北那家酒吧与科技高管们聚会时，当时在场的高管帕克·施密特回忆道，是她主动提议邀请英伟达的黄仁勋加入。

“She said, ‘I bet you guys I can get Jensen here,’ and then Jensen immediately showed up,” Mr. Schmitt said, referring to Mr. Huang by his first name. Photos posted to LinkedIn by NetThunder, a data software provider where Mr. Schmitt is chief executive, show Mr. Huang at the bar with the group.

“她说‘我打赌我能把詹森请来’，然后詹森马上就来了，”施密特说（他直呼黄仁勋的英文名詹森）。施密特担任首席执行官的数据软件提供商NetThunder在领英上发布的照片显示，黄仁勋确实曾与这群人在该酒吧相聚。

Shortly after Ms. Huang reached out, Mr. Huang arrived in his trademark black leather jacket and drank a whiskey shot with the group. He was accompanied by two other Nvidia executives and had planned to attend the party, said a person close to the company.

黄乐发出邀请后不久，黄仁勋便身着标志性的黑色皮夹克现身，与众人共饮威士忌。一位接近英伟达的人士表示，黄仁勋还带来了另外两名英伟达高管，且原本就计划出席这场聚会。

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋与Megaspeed高管黄乐（音）在台北的一次聚会上，摄于2024年6月。这张照片是NetThunder公司在LinkedIn上发的。

“Our field operations teams often host groups of customers and partners at conferences, and when Jensen is available, may ask him to visit to provide updates on the market,” Mr. Rizzo of Nvidia said.

英伟达发言人里佐表示：“我们的区域运营团队经常在会议期间接待客户和合作伙伴团体，若詹森时间允许，可能会请他到场分享市场最新动态。”

Mr. Huang and Ms. Huang were photographed together again in May, exiting a restaurant in Taipei with an Nvidia aide after a business dinner with other A.I. suppliers. In a video from the SET News channel in Taiwan, she waited behind Mr. Huang as he passed out noodles from the restaurant to onlookers and spoke to the Taiwanese press.

今年5月，黄仁勋与黄乐再次被拍到同框——在台北与其他人工智能供应商共进商务晚餐后，两人与一名英伟达助手一同走出某餐厅。台湾SET新闻频道的视频显示，黄仁勋向围观者分发餐厅的面条并接受台湾媒体采访时，黄乐在他身后等候。

黄仁勋从一家餐馆出来，一些人跟在他身后。这张照片是台湾媒体“今日新闻”拍到的。

Ms. Huang has a scant online profile. She spent much of her career in mainland China, including working as a television reporter for Chinese state media and as a private banker, according to a biography found on the social media of a former employer. The Times could not confirm either of those experiences. Ms. Huang left Megaspeed in recent months. The exact date is unclear. It is also unclear why she left and what she is doing now.

黄乐的线上公开资料极少。根据其前雇主社交媒体上的简介，她职业生涯的大部分时间在中国大陆度过，曾担任中国官方媒体的电视记者及私人银行家。《纽约时报》未能核实这两项经历。近几个月，黄乐已离开Megaspeed，具体离职时间不详，离职原因及目前动向也不得而知。

Both she and 7Road, the Chinese company that Megaspeed split off from, have close ties to a web of wealthy investors and tech companies with data center projects in China, according to a review of corporate and trade records compiled by the platforms WireScreen and Sayari, and analysis by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, a Washington nonprofit.

数据平台WireScreen和Sayari整理的企业及贸易记录，以及华盛顿非营利组织高级国防研究中心的分析显示，黄乐与Megaspeed拆分前的母公司第七大道均与一个由富有投资者及在中国拥有数据中心项目的科技公司组成的网络关系密切。

The owners of 7Road include the Chinese central government and several local governments. Before joining Megaspeed, Ms. Huang was executive director for a Shanghai-based fund that had invested in 7Road and had ties to state-backed firms.

第七大道的股东包括中国中央政府及多个地方政府。加入Megaspeed前，黄乐曾担任上海某基金的执行董事，该基金已投资第七大道，且与数家国有背景企业存在关联。

Valuable Shipments

高价值运输

It is not clear where Megaspeed’s billions of dollars came from to buy chips. But a few weeks after the gathering in Taipei last year, Megaspeed began receiving a steady supply of multimillion dollar shipments of some of Nvidia’s most advanced chips, according to Malaysian trade records.

目前尚不清楚Megaspeed用于采购芯片的数十亿美元的资金来源。但马来西亚贸易记录显示，去年那次台北聚会后的几周内，Megaspeed开始稳定接收价值数以百万美元计的英伟达最先进芯片。

Those purchases would have been illegal under U.S. law if Megaspeed were still a Chinese subsidiary. But Nvidia had determined that Megaspeed was a Singaporean company, said a person close to the company’s compliance division, and believed it was a newcomer to the cloud-computing industry that would compete for business against U.S. companies. Megaspeed, Nvidia officials said, did not raise any red flags.

若Megaspeed仍是中国子公司，此类采购将违反美国法律。但一位接近英伟达合规部门的人士表示，英伟达已认定Megaspeed为新加坡企业，并认为其是云计算行业的新秀，将与美国企业竞争业务。英伟达官员称，Megaspeed并未引发任何警示信号。

Over the next three months, Megaspeed bought a billion dollars of Nvidia technology. Within the next nine months, it secured roughly a billion dollars more. Worldwide, Nvidia recorded roughly $115 billion in data center sales last year.

在接下来的三个月里，Megaspeed采购了价值10亿美元的英伟达技术；此后九个月内，又追加采购了约10亿美元。去年，英伟达全球数据中心业务销售额约为1150亿美元。

位于马来西亚柔佛州努沙再也科技园的数据中心，Megaspeed在园区里有服务器。

Malaysian import records show that the bulk of those advanced Nvidia chips were purchased from what WireScreen says is the U.S. subsidiary of Inspur, a major Chinese tech firm that the United States has sanctioned for trying to acquire American technology to build supercomputers for the Chinese military. Inspur and Aivres, the subsidiary, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

马来西亚进口记录显示，这些先进英伟达芯片的大部分购自WireScreen所称的浪潮集团美国子公司。浪潮集团是中国大型科技企业，此前因试图获取美国技术为中国军方建造超级计算机，已被美国列入制裁名单。浪潮集团及其子公司Aivres未回应置评请求。

In 2023, Inspur was added to the U.S. entity list for supporting the Chinese military. The listing means that U.S. companies like Nvidia are barred from selling their technology to Inspur without a special license. But because Inspur’s subsidiary, Aivres, is based in California and records sales as a U.S. company, it can buy Nvidia chips freely, legal experts said.

2023年，浪潮集团因支持中国军方被纳入美国“实体清单”。这意味着，英伟达等美国企业若向浪潮集团出售技术，必须获得特殊许可。但法律专家表示，由于浪潮集团子公司Aivres总部位于加利福尼亚州，且以美国公司名义记录销售，因此可自由采购英伟达芯片。

The shipments went to Speedmatrix, a subsidiary that Megaspeed had set up in Malaysia in early 2024, according to shipment records obtained by ImportGenius, the trade data platform.

据贸易数据平台ImportGenius获得的货运记录，这些采购运送到Megaspeed于2024年初在马来西亚设立的子公司Speedmatrix。

The registered address for Speedmatrix on the shipping records led to a dilapidated storefront outside Kuala Lumpur, where the sign out front advertised a construction company.

记者按照Speedmatrix在货运记录上注册的地址，找到吉隆坡郊外一处破旧的店面，店门上的招牌显示这里是一家建筑公司。

Calls by Times reporters to the construction company went unanswered, and no one was inside when a reporter visited the address in late September. Employees at the law firm next door said they rarely saw people in the office.

时报记者数次致电这家建筑公司，但无人接听。今年9月底，记者来这里实地探访，发现店内空无一人。隔壁的律师事务所的员工说，他们很少看到这处办公地点有人。

In September 2024, an official with the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security, the division of the Commerce Department that overseas export controls, visited Megaspeed’s data center in Malaysia to investigate suspicions about how much it was buying.

美国商务部负责出口管制的工业和安全局的一名官员曾在2024年9月前来Megaspeed位于马来西亚的数据中心调查，因为它大量购买芯片已引起怀疑。

Officials were concerned that Nvidia technology on site was still in boxes, three people familiar with the inspection said. Such behavior arouses suspicions because some companies bypass checks by showing they have the technology before later shipping it elsewhere.

三名了解那次调查情况的人士称，让官员们担心的是，数据中心现场的英伟达芯片仍存放在箱子里。这种行为引起了怀疑，因为一些公司会先把芯片拿给人看以应付检查，然后再将芯片转运到其他地方。

U.S. officials suspect that some of the chips may have been sent on to China, the people said, but they do not have conclusive evidence.

知情人士称，美国官员怀疑，部分芯片可能已被转运到中国，但尚未掌握确凿的证据。

After the visit, U.S. officials communicated their concerns about Megaspeed to Singaporean and Malaysian authorities, as well as Nvidia, the three people said. The United States has been pressuring those governments to better police data center projects and chip smuggling networks.

上述知情人表示，那次现场调查之后，美国官员把他们对Megaspeed的担忧转告给了新加坡、马来西亚，也告诉了英伟达。美国一直在对这些国家的政府施加压力，要求它们加强对数据中心项目和芯片走私网络的监管。

In February, Singaporean police arrested nine people, including several Chinese-born executives of other technology companies, for making “misleading claims” about the end destination of computer servers that use the A.I. chips. Malaysia said in July that it would require permits for all export and transfers of Nvidia chips.

今年2月，新加坡警方逮捕了九名嫌疑人，其中包括几名其他科技公司在中国出生的高管，指控他们就搭载人工智能芯片的服务器最终流向给出“误导性陈述”。马来西亚在今年7月表示，将对所有英伟达芯片的出口及转运实施许可证管理。

The crackdown has coincided with a stall in Megaspeed’s chip purchases. By late July, trade records indicate that the company had stopped receiving shipments of advanced Nvidia chips, despite expectations that it would buy billions more. Nvidia confirmed Megaspeed had not submitted new orders for months, but did not offer an explanation why. The company was projected to buy as much as $3.2 billion of Nvidia’s highest-performing computers over the next year, according to Morgan Stanley. Those computers are packed with the company’s A.I. chips.

监管收紧的同时，Megaspeed采购芯片的速度变慢。贸易记录显示，到今年7月底时，Megaspeed已没有再收到英伟达先进芯片，尽管按以前的趋势预测，公司会采购数十亿美元的货物。英伟达证实Megaspeed已数月未提交新订单，但未说明原因。摩根士丹利原本预测，Megaspeed未来一年会采购价值高达32亿美元的英伟达性能最高的计算机。这些设备搭载了英伟达的人工智能芯片。

Megaspeed的马来西亚子公司Speedmatrix的办公室设在柔佛州的一家购物中心里，办公室窗户是反光玻璃的，大门装有指纹锁。Speedmatrix办公室的接待区，可以看到Megaspeed的logo。

A Boom Fueled by China

中国助推的繁荣

In Singapore and Malaysia, traces of Megaspeed linger in half-empty offices, on corporate documents and behind the fences of advanced A.I. data centers.

在新加坡和马来西亚，依旧可以在空荡荡的办公室里、企业的文件中，以及先进人工智能数据中心的围墙后看到Megaspeed的踪迹。

In a premier office building in Singapore’s sleek central business district, just two employees were present on a recent weekday in Megaspeed’s offices. A door behind a small, staged waiting area gave way to a minimalist white office, with several clusters of empty desks.

在新加坡时尚的中央商务区一栋高档写字楼里的Megaspeed办公室，记者在最近的一个工作日看到，里面只有两名员工。一个摆设为等候区的小空间后面有一扇门，门打开时，可看到一个简约的白色办公室，里面有几排空置的工位。

A human resources manager said she had met few of the firm’s directors, most of whom were based in China and seldom visited Singapore. Most of its clients, she added, are Chinese. She said Ms. Huang had stepped down months earlier because of personal commitments to other businesses. James Tan, who is listed in corporate records as the company’s Singaporean director, is never present, she said.

一名人力资源经理表示，她很少见到公司董事，他们大多常驻中国，很少来新加坡。她还说，公司的大多数客户是中国人。她说，黄乐已在几个月前因涉及其他业务的个人原因离职。在公司记录中被列为公司新加坡董事的詹姆斯·谭（音）则从未露面，她说。

According to corporate ownership documents, Megaspeed is owned by a shell company that Mr. Tan owns. The shell company’s address led to an accounting firm in Singapore, where employees told a Times reporter that they did not know how to reach Mr. Tan.

据公司股权文件，Megaspeed由谭先生拥有的一家空壳公司所有。按照这家空壳公司的地址，记者找到了新加坡的一家会计师事务所，那里的员工告诉时报记者，他们不知道如何联系谭先生。

Two hours north, hulking data centers rose over palm oil fields that dotted the Malaysian countryside. Sedenak Tech Park, a complex of data centers with its own ties to China, bristled with cameras and high-tension wires. It was there that U.S. officials found Megaspeed’s inventory still in boxes.

向北行驶两小时，可以看到一座座庞大的数据中心高耸在马来西亚乡间的棕榈油树林里。与中国有关系的数据中心综合体塞德纳克科技园区里布满摄像头和高压电线。美国官员是在这个数据中心里发现了仍装在盒子里的Megaspeed购买的芯片库存。

In Johor, the Malaysian state across the border from Singapore, Megaspeed’s Malaysian subsidiary, Speedmatrix, has an office on the upper floors of a shopping mall near snack stores and beauty parlors. The office’s windows were obscured by reflective glass and its doors were fitted with fingerprint scanners.

在与新加坡接壤的马来西亚柔佛州，Megaspeed的马来西亚子公司Speedmatrix的办公室设在一家购物中心的高层，办公室傍边是小吃店和美容院。办公室窗户是反光玻璃的，无法看到里面，门上装着指纹锁。

When a Times reporter visited, three employees inside did not answer despite repeated knocks. A woman eventually emerged for lunch and identified herself as an administrator. She said she had no contact with her bosses.

时报的一名记者访问办公室时，尽管多次敲门，里面的三名员工都不回应。最终，一名女士从里面走了出来，她要去吃午饭，自称是行政人员。她说她没有老板的联系方式。

When asked what the company did, she said, “It’s not clear.”

记者问她公司是做什么的，她回答道，“不清楚。”

The Egyptian intelligence chief was briefing a roomful of negotiators on the state of play in the Gaza Strip ceasefire talks when the prime minister of Qatar quietly slipped a handwritten note to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

当埃及情报部门负责人向满屋的谈判代表介绍加沙地带停火谈判的进展时，卡塔尔首相悄悄递给贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫一张手写便条。

The note urged the two Americans to push the Israelis to compromise.

这张纸条敦促这两位美国人推动以色列作出让步。

It was the morning of Wednesday, Oct. 8. Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, had just arrived on a private plane in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for what they hoped would be a breakthrough, at last, in the negotiations to bring an eventual end to Israel’s two-year war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

那是10月8日星期三上午。库什纳——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的女婿——与美国中东事务特使维特科夫刚乘坐私人飞机抵达埃及沙姆沙伊赫，他们期待此行能最终取得突破，结束以色列与哈马斯在加沙地带持续了两年的战争。

They had reason to be optimistic. For the first time, Hamas had signaled its readiness to release all the Israeli hostages without a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces and as long as it received assurances that Israel would not return to war. Giving up the hostages could deprive Israel of a reason to carry on the war. And Israel was ready to free thousands of Palestinians from its prisons, including 250 serving life sentences.

他们的乐观并非毫无根据。哈马斯首次表示，只要得到以色列不再重启战事的保证，它愿意在以军不完全撤离的情况下释放所有以色列人质。放弃人质可能会使以色列失去继续打仗的理由。而以色列也准备从监狱释放数以千计巴勒斯坦人，其中包括250名被判无期徒刑者。

But the talks were jammed.

但谈判却陷入了僵局。

Negotiators who had been meeting for two days at the resort town’s international convention center had shied away from pressing Israel and Hamas on a thorny question: how much territory in Gaza the Israeli military would leave before the hostage and prisoner exchanges. They feared that getting into the details of the map could derail the talks altogether.

谈判代表们在这个度假小城的国际会议中心商谈了两天，他们一直没有向以色列和哈马斯施压解决一个棘手问题：在进行人质与囚犯交换之前，以军究竟应该从加沙地带多大范围的领土上撤离。他们担心，一旦深入讨论地图细节，可能导致谈判彻底破裂。

周六，特朗普的中东特使史蒂夫·维特科夫、女儿伊万卡·特朗普和女婿贾里德·库什纳在特拉维夫的人质广场发表讲话。

This account is based on interviews with 15 officials from the U.S., Israel and Arab governments involved in or briefed on the negotiations, all of whom insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations and sensitive diplomacy.

本文内容基于对15名参与或了解谈判情况的美国、以色列及阿拉伯官员的采访整理而成，为了方便讨论私下交流及敏感外交内容，这些官员均要求匿名。

Both Israel and Hamas had taken maximalist positions. Hamas wanted Israel to pull out of Gaza entirely except for a narrow buffer zone along its border. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted Israeli troops to stay entrenched in some cities in Gaza to show his public and his hard-line ministers that he was making few concessions.

以色列与哈马斯都采取了极为强硬的立场。哈马斯要求以色列完全撤出加沙地带，仅保留沿边境的狭窄缓冲区。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡则希望以军继续驻扎在加沙部分城市，以此向公众和强硬派部长表明他并未做出太多让步。

Bridging that gap last Wednesday required steady American pressure on the lead Israeli negotiator, Ron Dermer, officials said, as the Qatari premier’s note had urged. It also took three calls to the mediators from Trump himself, U.S. officials said.

这些官员透露，要在上周三弥合这一巨大分歧，需要美方对以色列首席谈判代表罗恩·德尔默持续施压——正如卡塔尔首相在纸条中所建议的那样。此外，特朗普本人还亲自给调解人员打了三次电话。

Dermer’s office declined to comment. Hamas did not respond to a request for comment.

德尔默的办公室拒绝置评。哈马斯未回应置评请求。

Ultimately, the two sides more or less split the difference, Arab officials said. Israel would hold onto much more territory than Hamas wanted it to, but it would pull out of many built-up areas.

阿拉伯官员表示，最终双方或多或少各退一步。以色列将保留比哈马斯所期望的更多领土，但会从许多建成区撤出。

Hamas grudgingly accepted the compromise, Arab and Israeli officials said.

阿拉伯与以色列官员透露，哈马斯勉强接受了这一折衷方案。

以色列首席谈判代表罗恩·德尔默上月现身白宫，当时特朗普总统与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理正准备举行联合新闻发布会。

The mediators also knew that negotiating an agreement focused on the narrower issues of a ceasefire and hostage and prisoner exchange was more attainable than pushing for a grand deal that dealt with difficult questions around Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza and Hamas’ disarmament.

调解方也明白，将谈判焦点放在停火以及人质与囚犯交换等具体问题上，更有可能达成协议，而不是推动一个全面协议，去处理以色列全面撤军或哈马斯解除武装等棘手议题。

The success of Wednesday’s talks, where earlier attempts had failed, reflected how, once enough pressure had been applied, seemingly huge impediments could be overcome, or at least set aside for later. In the past, the two sides had fallen back on absolutes. Israel insisted on “total victory,” and Hamas on a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

周三谈判的成功（而此前的努力皆告失败）表明，一旦施加足够压力，原本看似巨大的障碍也能被克服，或至少可暂时搁置。过去，双方一直坚持极端立场——以色列坚称要实现“全面胜利”，而哈马斯则要求以军完全撤出加沙。

A big complaint from mediators about Israel in prior talks was that its negotiators never really had a mandate from Netanyahu to make a deal.

调解方在先前谈判中对以色列的一大不满在于，其谈判代表从未真正获得内塔尼亚胡达成协议的授权。

This time, the leaders of both delegations — Khalil al-Hayya, the top Hamas negotiator, and Dermer — came with a mandate to reach a deal, Arab and Israeli officials said.

据阿拉伯和以色列官员表示，而这次，双方代表团的负责人——哈马斯首席谈判代表哈立勒·哈亚和以色列的德尔默——都带着明确的达成协议授权前来。

哈马斯首席谈判代表哈利勒·哈亚去年在伊斯坦布尔的资料照片。在最近谈判中，土耳其协助向哈马斯施加了压力。

The talks were the culmination of dizzying weeks of diplomacy that began after the fallout over Israel’s botched strike against Hamas officials meeting in Qatar. By late September, Trump had announced a 20-point plan that, while short on many details, specifically called for the release of all hostages in exchange for an Israeli pullback in Gaza.

这场谈判是几周来密集外交斡旋的高潮。它始于以色列针对哈马斯官员在卡塔尔的一次会议发动袭击失败，引发外交风波后。到9月下旬，特朗普宣布了一项20点计划，虽然缺乏细节，但明确要求释放所有人质以换取以色列从加沙撤军。

Crucially, on Oct. 3, Trump chose to embrace Hamas’ statement on his Gaza plan, even though it only offered support for part of his proposal, namely the exchange of hostages and prisoners. At the same time, he made clear that Israel would need to cooperate with his effort to strike a deal or risk facing his wrath.

重大转折发生在10月3日：特朗普选择接受哈马斯对其加沙计划的表态，尽管该组织仅对方案中关于人质换囚犯部分表示支持。同时他明确表示，以色列必须配合他推动协议的努力，否则将面临他的怒火。

By Wednesday afternoon in Sharm el-Sheikh, mediators felt they were finally getting close as they shuttled between Israeli and Hamas delegations.

到周三下午，在沙姆沙伊赫，调解人员在以色列与哈马斯代表团之间穿梭斡旋时，感到终于接近达成协议了。

Under pressure from Witkoff and Kushner, Israel was showing more willingness to accept a middle ground on the withdrawal. The Israeli negotiators came around to thinking that while they would effectively be giving up control over half of Gaza, they could keep the other half to pressure Hamas to make more concessions in future talks about postwar governance, Israeli and Arab officials said.

在维特科夫和库什纳的施压下，以色列展现出更多的灵活性，愿意在撤军问题上接受折衷方案。以色列与阿拉伯官员称，以方谈判代表逐渐意识到，虽然他们将实际放弃加沙一半的控制权，但可保留另一半领土，以便在后续关于战后治理的谈判中向哈马斯施压争取更多让步。

Al-Hayya, who had survived an Israeli assassination attempt weeks earlier in Doha, Qatar, said he needed to consult with other members of Hamas’ leadership. A convoy of black SUVs brought him and three other officials in the militant group back to their residence, Arab officials said.

数周前在多哈躲过以色列暗杀的哈亚表示，他需要与哈马斯领导层其他成员商议。阿拉伯官员称，一队黑色SUV车队载着他与另外三名哈马斯官员返回住地。

The Hamas officials were gone for so long that the Qatari prime minister instructed a top aide, Abdulla al-Slaiti, to chase them down at their residence, officials said.

据官员透露，哈马斯官员离开时间过长，以致卡塔尔首相指示高级助手阿卜杜拉·斯莱蒂前往其住地催促。

周一，在加沙地带迪尔巴拉赫，哈马斯武装人员将人质移交给红十字会代表。

Al-Hayya was only ready to inform mediators of Hamas’ decision at 10 p.m. — five hours after they left the talks.

直到晚上10点——也就是他们离开谈判现场五个小时后——哈亚才准备好向调解方通报哈马斯的决定。

By then, the Israeli, American, Turkish, Qatari and Egyptian teams had already dispersed to their villas at the Four Seasons in Sharm el-Sheikh, a sprawling beachside resort. The Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and the Egyptian intelligence chief, Gen. Hassan Rashad, were sitting in Rashad’s villa when al-Hayya approached, officials said.

此时，以色列、美国、土耳其、卡塔尔和埃及的代表团成员已经散去，回到沙姆沙伊赫四季酒店各自的别墅。卡塔尔首相穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼与埃及情报部门负责人哈桑·拉沙德正坐在后者的别墅中，哈亚走了进来。

Al-Hayya told the mediators that even though Hamas considered the deal unfair, its priority was to stop Israel’s bombings in Gaza, according to officials. Hamas, he said, still hoped the mediators would do everything they could to improve the deal for Palestinians.

据官员透露，哈亚告诉调解方，尽管哈马斯认为这项协议不公平，但当前的首要任务是停止以色列对加沙的轰炸。他还表示，哈马斯希望调解方能尽力为巴勒斯坦人争取更优厚的条款。

Though cloaked in dissatisfaction, al-Hayya’s response was nonetheless clearly a yes.

尽管言语中带着不满，但哈亚的回应无疑是同意的信号。

Some issues were still unresolved, including the names of Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel, and mediators debated the merits of announcing the deal right away. But the mediators concluded that the outstanding issues were not deal-breakers, and said that Trump could issue a statement announcing an agreement.

仍有一些细节尚未敲定，包括以色列将释放的巴勒斯坦囚犯名单。调解方就是否立即宣布协议进行了讨论。最终他们认为这些悬而未决的问题并不构成阻碍，并表示特朗普可以发表声明宣布达成协议。

In Washington, Trump was hosting an event at the White House when Secretary of State Marco Rubio passed him a note. “Very close,” the note read. “We need you to approve a Truth Social post soon so you can announce deal first.”

在华盛顿，特朗普正在白宫出席一场活动。国务卿马可·鲁比奥递给他一张字条，上面写着：“非常接近了。我们需要您尽快批准Truth Social的帖子，好让您率先宣布协议。”

埃及开罗新闻电视台的视频截图，显示10月9日卡塔尔首相阿勒萨尼与埃及情报情报部门负责人拉沙德将军在沙姆沙伊赫举行会谈。

Egyptian officials, sitting alongside an Israeli intelligence official, had finished making the final edits to the agreement’s text. Al Thani signed the agreement first, before approaching Dermer with an English copy and, separately, al-Hayya with an Arabic one, officials said.

埃及官员与以色列情报官员共同完成了协议文本的最终修订。据官员透露，阿勒萨尼率先在协议上签字，随后将英文副本递交德尔默，另将阿拉伯语副本送至哈亚。

At 1 a.m., one of the U.S. negotiators took a call from Trump and put him on speaker so the president could address the room. “It’s a big day,” the president said.

凌晨一点，一名美方谈判代表接通特朗普来电并打开免提，让总统直接对在场人员讲话。“这是个大日子，”总统说道。

One of the world’s main number crunchers released its latest economic report on Tuesday. But the middling forecast from the International Monetary Fund doesn’t begin to capture the helter-skelter ride the global economy is on.

全球主要经济数据分析机构之一周二发布了最新经济报告，但国际货币基金组织(IMF)给出的折中预测远未能反映出全球经济正经历的剧烈动荡。

Even as the I.M.F. was preparing its report, a flurry of developments were already altering the picture. New U.S. tariffs on imported wood, furniture and kitchen cabinets that are expected to drive up the cost of home building took effect on Tuesday. So did the opening round of higher port entry fees that China and the United States will impose on each other’s vessels.

就在IMF筹备报告期间，一系列新动态已在改变当前局势。美国对进口木材、家具及橱柜加征的关税已于周二正式生效，此举预计将推高住宅建造成本。同日，中美两国相互加征的首轮船舶港口费也同步落地。

Tuesday’s turn of the trade wheel was just one click in a series of repercussions set in motion by President Trump’s vow to smash the world’s economic order. More will follow.

周二的贸易局势变动不过是特朗普总统誓言打破全球经济秩序所引发连锁反应中的一个环节，后续还将有更多变动。

Last week, Beijing decided to sharply step up curbs on its export of rare earth metals, materials that are essential for the manufacturing of semiconductors, cellphones, wind turbines and nearly every other modern gadget. New restrictions on equipment needed to produce batteries for electric cars are also scheduled to take effect next month.

上周，中国政府决定大幅加强对稀土金属的出口管制。稀土金属是制造半导体、手机、风力涡轮机及几乎所有现代电子产品的关键材料。此外，针对电动汽车电池生产所需设备的新限制措施，也定于下月正式生效。

Mr. Trump’s initial fury softened over the weekend, after his response led to the sharpest decline in stocks since April, when the president’s initial barrage of tariffs was announced. Still, his threat to slap an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports was left dangling.

特朗普最初的怒火在上周末有所缓和，此前他的回应导致股市出现自4月首次宣布大规模加征关税以来的最剧烈下跌。尽管如此，他威胁要对中国进口商品额外加征100%关税的提议仍是悬而未决。

中美贸易紧张局势正引发全球连锁反应：中国出口限制措施冲击欧洲汽车制造商，美国对中国制造船舶的收费则影响外国船运企业停靠美国港口。

“The U.S.-China relationship is highly volatile,” said Richard Portes, a professor at the London Business School. “One doesn’t really know what to expect from one day to the next, and that is typical of the current administration.”

“美中关系极不稳定，”伦敦商学院教授理查德·波特斯表示，“人们根本无法预测第二天会发生什么，而这正是本届政府的典型特征。”

The souped-up tension between the two economic superpowers is catching other countries — that is, almost every country — in the crossfire. China’s restrictions on metals and magnets, for instance, would affect European automakers that use those materials and ship them across borders within Europe. And the levies on ships made in China apply even to non-Chinese shipping companies stopping at American ports.

这两个经济超级大国之间不断升级的紧张局势正使其他国家——几乎是所有国家——陷入夹缝之中。例如，中国对金属和磁体的出口限制，将影响到使用这些材料并在欧洲内部跨境运输的欧洲汽车制造商；而针对中国制造船舶的收费，即便对停靠美国港口的非中国航运企业也同样适用。

On Tuesday, the Chinese government ratcheted up the retaliation by adding five American subsidiaries of the South Korean shipping company Hanwha to its sanctions list, accusing the subsidiaries of “supporting and assisting” the United States in its moves in the shipbuilding industry.

周二，中国政府进一步加大报复力度，将韩国航运企业韩华集团的五家美国子公司列入制裁名单，指控这些子公司“支持和协助”美国在造船业的相关行动。

Beijing and Washington are also essentially pressuring nations around the globe to take sides. Mexico, one of the world’s biggest buyers of Chinese cars, proposed a 50 percent tariff last month on those vehicles after heavy lobbying from the Trump administration.

北京和华盛顿实质上还在迫使全球各国选边站。作为全球最大的中国汽车买家之一，墨西哥在特朗普政府的大力游说后，于上月提议对中国汽车加征50%的关税。

India, meanwhile, has moved closer to China since the White House, piqued by New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil, imposed tariffs up to 50 percent on Indian goods. In August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China for the first time in seven years to attend a security and economic conference — a public display by India’s leader that his country has plenty of allies should the Trump administration continue to single it out for punishment.

与此同时，印度与中国的关系愈发紧密。此前，白宫对新德里持续购买俄罗斯石油不满，对印度商品加征最高50%的关税。8月，印度总理莫迪七年来首次访华，出席一场安全与经济会议——印度领导人借此公开表明，若特朗普政府继续针对印度实施惩罚性措施，印度仍有众多盟友。

北京和华盛顿正施压各国选边站队。在美国游说下，中国汽车的主要买家墨西哥上月提议对中国汽车征收50%的关税。

Since Mr. Trump took office, shifts in global trade policy have happened both at high speed and in slow motion, reverberating in broad and unpredictable ways.

自特朗普上任以来，全球贸易政策的变动既有快速的推进，也有缓慢的发酵，其影响广泛且难以预测。

When Mr. Trump announced his plan this summer to slap 50 percent tariffs on most steel and aluminum coming into the United States, British steel makers felt lucky. Their government had already struck a deal that their steel would be tariffed at only half that amount — 25 percent.

今年夏季，当特朗普宣布计划对大多数进口钢铝加征50%关税时，英国钢铁制造商曾感到庆幸——英国政府已与美方达成协议，其钢铁产品仅需缴纳半数关税，即25%。

But the mood in Britain darkened considerably last week when the European Union announced its own set of punishing tariffs on steel imported into its 27-nation bloc. The policy delivered a gut punch to Britain’s steel industry, which sends nearly 80 percent of its exports to the European Union.

但上周，欧盟宣布对进口至其27个成员国的钢铁征收惩罚性关税后，英国业界的情绪急剧恶化。该政策给英国钢铁业带来沉重打击，因为英国钢铁近80%的出口流向欧盟。

Britain, though, wasn’t the target of the policy — just a bystander to moves aimed at Beijing and Washington.

然而，英国并非该政策的目标——这些举措的矛头指向北京和华盛顿，英国只是被波及的旁观者。

The 50 percent E.U. tariff was directed at China, which has been accused of dumping underpriced steel on the global market. The tax was also designed with an eye to putting the European Union in a better negotiating position with the United States.

欧盟此次加征的50%关税主要针对中国，中国被指向全球市场倾销低价钢铁。该关税政策的另一目的是使得欧盟在与美国谈判时占据更有利地位。

“The Union is ready to work with like-minded countries with a view to ring-fencing their economies from global overcapacity,” the European Union’s executive arm said last week. “We will continue exploring ways of working together with the U.S.”

“欧盟准备与志同道合的国家合作，保护本国经济免受全球产能过剩的影响，”欧盟执行机构上周表示，“我们将继续探索与美国的合作途径。”

全球两大经济体之间的贸易冲突正引发连锁反应——中国制造的船舶在停靠美国港口时面临额外收费。

The protectionist impulse is also going viral, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico taking steps to shield their homegrown steel makers.

保护主义的势头也在蔓延，加拿大、巴西和墨西哥均已采取措施保护本土钢铁企业。

Despite the frequent swerves in trade policy, though, the global economy will remain highly integrated, said Lucrezia Reichlin, a professor at the London Business School, even as the center of gravity shifts toward Asia and away from the West.

不过，伦敦商学院教授卢克雷齐娅·赖希林表示，尽管贸易政策频繁变动，全球经济仍将保持高度一体化，即便经济重心正从西方转向亚洲。

For now, growth is slowing in both the United States and China, while a pervasive unpredictability characterizes the short- and long-term outlooks.

目前，美国和中国的经济增长均在放缓，短期和长期前景均充满普遍的不确定性。

Mr. Portes at the London Business School summed up the dynamic between the world’s two largest economies: “China has stable, clear and determined objectives. The Trump administration changes from day to day, in its views and its policies.”

伦敦商学院的波特斯如此总结全球两大经济体之间的态势：“中国的目标稳定、明确且坚定，而特朗普政府的观点和政策每天都在变化。”

“The degree of uncertainty is huge,” he added, “and that has consequences for the global economy.”

“当前的不确定性程度极高，”他还说。“这无疑会给全球经济带来影响。”

The Trump administration broadened its trade war with China on Tuesday, as it began imposing fees on Chinese ships docking at American ports.

特朗普政府周二扩大了与中国的贸易战，开始对停靠美国港口的中国船舶征收费用。

The long-planned action is intended to counter China’s dominance of commercial shipbuilding and help revitalize the United States’ own shipbuilding industry, which has withered over the years.

采取这项酝酿已久的措施是为了对抗中国在商业造船领域的主导地位，帮助重振多年来一直在萎缩的美国本土造船业。

China’s Ministry of Transport threatened retaliation on Friday, saying it planned to hit American vessels with fees when they docked in China. The shipping clash comes as trade relations between China and the United States are again wobbling. Last week, after China announced more stringent restrictions on rare earth minerals, President Trump threatened to impose more tariffs on the country, before tempering his tone somewhat.

中国交通运输部已在上周五警告将采取报复措施，宣称计划对停靠中国港口的美国船舶征收特别港务费。这个涉及船舶停靠问题的冲突发生之际，中美贸易关系再度陷入动荡。上周，中国宣布对稀土矿物采取更严格的出口限制之后，美国总统特朗普曾威胁对中国商品加征更多关税，但他后来缓和了说法。

Supporters of the United States’ shipping measures say that China has used subsidies to gain an advantage in shipbuilding, and that the fees are a way to deter ocean carriers from buying Chinese ships.

支持美国对中国船舶收港口费的人表示，中国通过政府补贴获得了造船业优势地位，征收港口费是为了阻止远洋运输公司购买中国船舶。

“Anything we can do to chip away at the disparity in shipbuilding that exists between the United States and China is to our benefit,” said Mihir Torsekar, a senior economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a group that supports many of Mr. Trump’s trade actions.

“任何能缩小美中在造船行业上差距的举措都对我们有帮助，”繁荣美国联盟的高级经济学家米希尔·托塞卡说。该组织支持特朗普在贸易问题上采取的许多行动。

The fees will take effect the same day as new tariffs on imported furniture, kitchen cabinets and lumber. The shipping levies stem from a trade investigation started under the Biden administration and must be paid by ships owned by Chinese shipping companies. Non-Chinese shipping lines will have to pay fees when they send Chinese-built ships to American ports.

新规生效当日，美国还将对进口家具、橱柜和木材加征关税。对中国船舶征收港口费是拜登政府时代启动的一项贸易调查的结果，中国的航运公司拥有的船舶必须缴纳港口费。非中国航运企业如果使用中国制造的船舶往美国运货，停靠港口时也必须缴纳港口费。

Non-Chinese shipping lines have bought scores of Chinese-made vessels in recent years, and they are now trying to remove as many as possible from routes to the United States to avoid the fees.

近年来，非中国拥有的航运公司购入大量中国制造的船舶，这些公司正竭力将尽可能多的中国制造的船舶调离美国航线，以避免缴纳港口费。

“Vessel owners and operators are adjusting fleet deployments to mitigate the impact of the fees,” said Utsav Mathur, a partner specializing in shipping and commodities at Norton Rose Fulbright, a law firm.

“船东和运营商们正在调整船队部署，以减轻收费的影响，”诺顿罗氏律师事务所专门从事航运和大宗商品业务的合伙人乌察夫·马图尔说。

Shipping companies have said they do not intend to raise their customers’ rates in response to the levies.

航运公司已表示，它们无意通过提高运费将成本转嫁给客户。

But critics of the fees say they will make supply chains less efficient and eventually push up the cost of imported goods, many of which have been hit with high tariffs this year.

但批评港口费的人表示，这项收费将降低供应链效率，并最终推高进口商品的成本，许多进口商品今年已受到高额关税的打击。

“The inefficiencies, along with whatever fees are paid, will raise costs,” said Colin Grabow, an associate director at the Cato Institute, a research organization that favors less government regulation of business. “It’s just a matter of when.”

“效率降低加上所有需要缴纳的费用，将推高成本，”卡托研究所副所长科林·格拉博说，该研究所是一家主张减少政府对商业监管的研究机构。“只是时间问题而已。”

Skeptics also doubt that the fees will breathe much life into United States’ shipyards or do much to hold back China’s shipbuilding industry, which has in recent years extended its lead over Japan’s and South Korea’s.

质疑者同样怀疑这些费用能否真正激活美国造船业，或有效遏制中国造船业的发展，中国造船业近年来已扩大了相对于日本和韩国造船业的优势。

China made 60 percent of the world’s large vessels in 2024, up from 44 percent five years earlier, according to BRS Shipbrokers. American ships can cost up to five times the amount of those built in Asia. So far this year, China has made 717 large commercial vessels; the United States just one, according to BRS.

据BRS船舶经纪公司的数据，2024年，中国制造了全球大型船舶的60%，五年前的这个比例是44%。美国的造船成本最高可达亚洲的五倍。BRS数据显示，今年到目前为止，中国建造了717艘大型商用船，而美国只造了一艘。

The new rules are the most stringent for Chinese shipping companies, which cannot avoid the levies. HSBC, an investment bank, estimated that COSCO, a large Chinese shipping line, could pay $1.5 billion in fees next year, which the bank said could reduce COSCO’s operating earnings by nearly three fourths in 2026.

新规定对中国航运公司最为严格，它们无法避免缴纳港口费。据汇丰银行估计，中国大型航运公司中远集团明年可能需要支付15亿美元的港口费，汇丰银行称，这可能导致中远集团2026年的营业利润减少近75%。

COSCO did not respond to a request for comment, but in an April statement, the company said the United States’ fees would “risk undermining the security, resilience, and orderly operation of global industrial and supply chains.”

中远集团没有回应记者的置评请求，但该公司曾在今年4月的一份声明中表示，美国的港口费“有可能削弱全球产业链和供应链的安全性、韧性和有序运行”。

Matthew Funaiole, a vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that MSC, a Swiss shipping giant, placed orders for 12 large Chinese container vessels this year. Shipping companies buying from China are “going to get a quality ship at a low cost in a quick turn time,” Mr. Funaiole said. That, he added, might outweigh the costs and inconveniences created by the new penalties on Chinese vessels. MSC declined to comment.

战略与国际研究中心副总裁马修·富奈奥莱注意到，瑞士航运巨头MSC地中海航运公司今年已向中国订购了12艘大型集装箱船。富奈奥莱称，从中国购买船舶的航运公司正在“用低成本得到高质量的船舶，而且交付速度快”。他补充说，这也许能抵消美国对中国船舶采取新处罚措施带来的成本和不便。MSC拒绝置评。

The United States’ penalties on Chinese ships are unlikely to prompt a rush of orders for American ships but they could work alongside other efforts aimed at revitalizing American shipbuilding. Those include bipartisan legislation in Congress that provides subsidies to the industry, though it is not clear when or if the bill will progress.

美国对中国船舶收取的处罚性费用虽然不太可能引发美国船舶订单的激增，但可能会与其他旨在振兴美国造船业的努力形成合力。这些努力包括国会一项得到两党支持、为造船业提供补贴的法案，但尚不清楚该法案能否及何时取得进展。

Some new money has recently flowed into American shipyards.

一些新资金最近已流向美国的造船厂。

Hanwha, a conglomerate from South Korea with big shipbuilding operations in the country, last year bought a shipyard in Philadelphia for $100 million.

在韩国拥有大型造船业务的韩国企业集团韩华集团去年花一亿美元购买了费城的一家造船厂。

Hanwha recently announced that its ship operating subsidiary had ordered 10 oil and chemical tankers from the Philadelphia plant, a big order for an American yard. But it may not be indicative of broader market demand for American ships because one arm of Hanwha is buying from another.

该集团最近宣布，其经营航运的子公司已向费城的这家造船厂订购了10艘油轮和化学品船，这对一家美国造船厂来说是笔巨大的订单。但由于这是韩华集团内部交易，未必能反映市场对美国造船的广泛需求。

Ryan Lynch, the chief executive of Hanwha Shipping, the entity ordering the vessels, defended the transaction, saying its economics were sound. “We would never recommend to our board anything other than best practices,” he said. Mr. Lynch declined to disclose how much Hanwha Shipping was paying for the vessels, saying only that it was a “market price.”

订购这些船舶的是韩华航运，其首席执行官瑞安·林奇为这笔交易做辩护称，有充分的经济根据这样做。“我们永远不会向董事会推荐任何不是最佳实践的做法，”他说。林奇拒绝透露韩华航运为这些船舶支付的价格，只是说是“市场价格”。

China on Tuesday added five American subsidiaries of Hanwha to its sanctions list, accusing them of “supporting and assisting” the United States in its moves in the shipbuilding industry.

中国已在周二将韩华集团的五家美国子公司列入制裁名单，指责它们“支持和协助”美国在造船业采取的行动。

The order, which took effect immediately, prohibits Chinese companies or individuals from doing business with the Hanwha units. Shares of Hanwha Ocean, the conglomerate’s shipbuilding arm, fell 8 percent on the news.

这项立即生效的制裁禁止中国企业与个人与这五家韩华旗下的子公司开展业务。受该消息的影响，韩华集团旗下的造船部门韩华远洋的股价下跌了8%。

China’s Ministry of Transport also said it was launching an investigation into whether other organizations and individuals had played a role in taking measures against China.

中国交通运输部同时宣布，将就其他组织与个人是否参与对华制裁措施启动调查。

费城的韩华造船厂。对停靠美国港口的中国船舶征收港口费是为了帮助振兴几十年来一直在萎缩的美国造船业。

The Trump administration’s shipping actions don’t target only Chinese ships. All foreign car-carrying vessels will be subject to fees, with narrow exceptions.

特朗普政府在航运上的行动并非只针对中国船舶。所有运输汽车的外国船舶都将被征收港口费，只有少数例外。

Auto companies lobbied against the car-carrier fees, saying they could add hundreds of dollars to the cost of a vehicle. One way to avoid the fees is to buy an American made car carrier. But shipping analysts said it could take many years for the United States’ shipbuilding industry to build such a vessel.

车企曾游说反对该项收费，指出这将使得单车成本增加数百美元。避免港口费的一个方法是购买美国制造的汽车运输船。但航运分析师说，美国的造船业可能需要多年时间才能造出一艘这种船。

“The idea that these fees will lead to anyone ordering a U.S.-built car carrier are, I think, extremely remote,” Mr. Grabow of the Cato Institute said.

“认为这些费用会促使各方订购美国制造的汽车运输船，这种想法在我看来极不现实，”卡托研究所的格拉博说。

The administration is also targeting foreign-built ships that carry liquefied natural gas, a valuable American export, but it softened the actions against such vessels following pressure from the oil and gas industry. The United States Trade Representative, the agency formulating the new shipping rules, said on Friday that it had removed a provision that would have suspended licenses to export L.N.G. if a certain amount of the gas was not carried on American made ships.

美国政府还把外国制造的运输液化天然气的船舶作为打击目标（液化天然气是美国重要的出口商品），但在油气行业施压后放宽了相关限制。负责制定新航运规则的美国贸易代表办公室上周五表示，已将一条可能导致液化天然气出口许证暂时吊销的规定取消了，该规定要求一定数量的天然气运输需要用美国制造的船舶。

A spokeswoman for the trade representative did not respond when asked how the L.N.G. requirements would be enforced without the threat of suspending export licenses.

记者问贸易代表办公室的一名发言人，如果没有暂停出口许可证的威胁，如何执行上述关于液化天然气运输的要求，她尚未作出回应。

When the Chinese government announced a new visa to attract young science and technology talent, it advertised the move as another step toward becoming the leading scientific power, one to which people from around the globe would flock.

在宣布推出新签证以吸引青年科技人才时，中国政府将此举宣传为迈向科学强国之路的又一步，称全球人才将因此蜂拥而至。

To many in China, it was a gross mistake.

但在许多中国人眼中，这是个严重的错误。

In the days before and since Oct. 1, when the visa was supposed to come into effect, commenters have accused the government of inviting foreigners to steal jobs from Chinese people, at a time when young people are finding it harder than ever to land work. They have suggested that foreigners are being blindly worshiped, a longstanding national sore point.

在该签证原定生效的10月1日前后数日，网友纷纷指责政府在年轻人就业难度空前加大之际邀请外国人来抢中国人的工作。他们还认为这是崇洋媚外的表现——这一向容易引起国民不满。

Prominent influencers have also stoked nationalism or xenophobia, claiming that China will be overrun by outsiders. After Henry Huiyao Wang, the president of the Center for China and Globalization, a research group in Beijing, praised the new visa, people on social media called him a race traitor, and their posts were shared thousands of times.

知名网红也借机煽动民族主义或排外情绪，声称中国将被外国人占据。北京研究机构全球化智库理事长王辉耀对新签证表示支持后，社交媒体上有人称他为民族叛徒，相关言论被转发数以千次。

Platforms have been especially flooded by racist comments about Indians, after Indian news outlets reported on the Chinese visa as a possible alternative to the highly popular H1-B visa in the United States, which now comes with a $100,000 fee.

此前印度媒体报道称，中国新签证或可成为极受欢迎的美国H1-B签证（目前申请费高达10万美元）的替代选择，此后各平台上针对印度人的种族主义言论激增。

北京一家智库的理事长王辉耀对新签证表示支持后，社交媒体上有人称其为民族叛徒。

The backlash grew so fierce that the Chinese Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, People’s Daily, published an editorial calling criticisms of the visa “outlandish” and accusing opponents of misleading the public. Hu Xijin, the former editor in chief of Global Times, a nationalist tabloid, defended the policy, saying in a video that he saw fewer foreigners in China than in Japan or South Korea.

反对声浪愈发激烈，中国共产党官方喉舌《人民日报》不得不发表评论文章，称对新签证的批评是“奇谈怪论”，并指责反对者“误导公众”。民族主义小报《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进也为该政策辩护，他在视频中表示，自己观察到在中国的外国人数量“比日本和韩国还要少”。

“To be honest, it’s not that there are too many foreigners coming to China right now,” he said, “but rather that there aren’t enough.”

他说：“咱们中国现在说实话，外国人不是来得太多了，而是还不够。”

The public outcry suggests that China may still struggle to attract the world’s best and brightest scientists, even as the United States has cut research funding and pushed many prominent scholars to consider leaving.

公众的强烈抗议表明，即便美国正削减科研资金、迫使众多知名学者考虑离开，中国可能仍然难以吸引全球顶尖科技人才。

Anti-foreign sentiment has grown in China in recent years, as the government has warned of hostile overseas powers and urged people to report potential spies. China has historically had minuscule levels of inbound immigration, and many cultural and legal barriers remain for foreigners seeking to remain long-term.

近年来，中国政府频繁警示境外敌对势力风险，并号召民众举报潜在间谍，国内排外情绪随之升温。从历史上看，中国入境移民数量极少，外国人若想长期居留，仍需面对诸多文化与法律障碍。

When the government proposed slightly loosening permanent residency requirements for foreigners in 2020, it eventually retreated in the face of a similar backlash. (China granted fewer than 5,000 permanent residency cards between 2004 and 2014, according to People’s Daily.)

2020年，政府曾提议小幅放宽外国人永久居留条件，但最终在类似的反对声浪中搁置。（据《人民日报》报道，2004年至2014年，中国发放的永久居留证不足5000张。）

Even in defending the policy, the People’s Daily editorial assured readers that the visa would make it easier for young scientists to come to China, but that it “cannot be equated with immigration.”

即便在为政策辩护时，《人民日报》的评论文章仍向读者保证：新签证虽能让青年科学家更易来华，但其性质“岂能直接和移民划等号”。

It is unclear whether the visa would even grant the right to work, as opposed to simply allowing people to conduct business and educational “exchanges,” as state media said after the visa was announced. Eligibility details have not yet been released, even though the launch date has passed. Officials have said only that applicants would need to have obtained a bachelor’s degree in science, technology, math or engineering from a top university.

目前尚不清楚该签证是否赋予工作权——官方媒体在签证宣布后仅称其允许持有者开展商业与教育“交流”。尽管生效日期已过，签证申请资格细则仍未公布，官员仅表示申请人需“从境内外知名高校或科研机构毕业，在科学、技术、工程、数学领域获得学士及以上学位”。

The difficult job market for young people has been a potential flashpoint for years, as China grapples with slowing growth. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has said that ensuring employment is key to preventing social unrest. The latest jobs figures, released in August, show youth unemployment at a new high.

这些年来，中国经济增速放缓，青年就业困境始终是潜伏的社会矛盾点。国家领导人习近平曾指出，保障就业是防范社会动荡的关键。今年8月发布的最新数据显示，青年失业率再创新高。

“Among people from every walk of life, educational background and age group I’ve met, everyone says: Work is hard to find,” a popular manga author who uses the pen name Feng Xi Shen Lei wrote on social media. “Given the talent pool in China, I don’t believe that there’s any position in any field that must be filled by a foreigner.”

笔名“风息神泪”的知名漫画家在社交媒体上写道：“目前我能接触到的所有渠道、所有平台、所有阶层、所有学历、所有年龄段的人群，都在说：工作不好找，或者，工作不好保。我不相信以国内的人才储备，有什么领域的什么职位，非要外国人做不可。”

北京大学，正在做实验的学生。中国的科技专业毕业生在劳动力中所占比例低于许多西方国家。

Commenters also attacked the requirement that applicants need only a bachelor’s degree. Many young Chinese say that they need advanced degrees to find jobs, because of stiff competition.

网民还对申请人仅需学士学位的要求提出质疑。许多中国年轻人表示，由于竞争激烈，他们必须拥有高学历才能找到工作。

In reality, foreigners who enter on K visas may not directly be competing with most of the unemployed young Chinese.

事实上，持K签证入境的外国人或许并不会与大多数中国失业青年直接竞争。

That is in part because of a mismatch between supply and demand in China’s job market. Many recent graduates are struggling to find jobs because the sectors that have historically employed most of them, such as real estate or education, are suffering. But in fields such as advanced manufacturing or artificial intelligence, China needs tens of millions more qualified candidates than it has, according to the Ministry of Education.

部分原因在于中国就业市场存在供需错配：房地产、教育等传统吸纳就业主力行业陷入困境，导致大量应届毕业生求职困难；但据教育部数据，在高端制造、人工智能等领域，中国对专业人才的需求缺口达数千万。

Though China produces the most science and technology graduates in the world by numbers, those graduates make up a smaller proportion of the total work force than in many Western countries.

尽管中国科技类专业毕业生数量居全球首位，但这类人才在总劳动力中的占比仍低于许多西方国家。

Denis Simon, the former executive vice chancellor of Duke Kunshan University and an advocate for more scientific cooperation between the United States and China, said that greater transparency about how the visas will be granted could help ease people’s concerns. But he said Beijing was sending a clear signal that it wanted to bring in more foreign expertise.

昆山杜克大学前常务副校长丹尼斯·西蒙长期倡导中美加强科技合作，他表示，若能提高签证发放流程的透明度，有助于缓解民众担忧。但他也指出，中国政府已释放明确信号——希望引入更多外国专业人才。

“This is part of the longer-term reforms needed to attract high-end talent,” he said.

他说：“这是吸引高端人才所需的长期改革的一部分。”

Just days ago, President Trump indicated his trade war with China was entering a more belligerent phase. China’s new, “unheard of” controls on rare earth minerals were “sinister and hostile” and a “moral disgrace,” he fumed, vowing to hit back with 100 percent tariffs on all products from China.

就在几天前，特朗普总统还表示，他与中国的贸易战正进入更具对抗性的阶段。他愤然指责中国对稀土矿物实施的“前所未有”的新管制措施“阴险且充满敌意”，称其为“有违道德”，并放话将对中国所有商品加征100%关税。

“The rest is History,” he said in a social media post.

“接下来的就都是历史了，”他在社交媒体上写道。

Just 48 hours later, Mr. Trump appeared eager to rewrite that history.

然而，仅仅48小时之后，特朗普似乎又急于改写历史。

President Xi Jinping of China was only having a “bad moment,” Mr. Trump said on social media on Sunday. “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” He reassured his followers that the United States “wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

上周日，他在社交媒体上表示，中国国家主席习近平只是“遇到点小问题”。“不必担忧中国，一切自会好转！”他安抚关注者，美国“想帮中国，而不是害它！！！”

The dueling messages appeared to provide a window into an internal tug of war for Mr. Trump over the best way to approach China on trade issues. He has repeatedly seesawed between retaliation and reconciliation, rattling markets, sending businesses scrambling and leaving questions about whether he has a larger strategy.

这些相互矛盾的言论仿佛是一扇窗，展现出特朗普在如何以最合适的方式处理对华贸易问题上的内心拉锯战。他一次又一次在报复与和解之间反复摇摆，不仅引发市场震荡、导致商界疲于应对，更令外界质疑他是否有一个长远战略。

At times, Mr. Trump has taken steps to “decouple” the United States from China, threatening severe tariffs, moving to suspend sales of critical technology and even revoking the visas of Chinese students. But with a potential meeting with Mr. Xi expected this month, Mr. Trump and his aides have also struck a conciliatory tone in hopes of reaching a trade agreement and cementing Mr. Trump’s self-described role as a master deal maker.

特朗普不时采取推动美中“脱钩”的行动——威胁征收高额关税、暂停关键技术出口，甚至吊销中国留学生签证。但随着本月可能与习近平会晤，特朗普及其幕僚又转而采取缓和姿态，期望能达成贸易协议，巩固其自诩的“交易大师”形象。

Both approaches were on display in recent days.

在过去几天里，这两种做法同时上演。

Markets in the United States plunged on Friday amid Mr. Trump’s threats, and then rebounded some on Monday as he seemed to back off. Stocks in Asia, which had closed for the week before Mr. Trump’s bellicose turn, fell on Monday amid fears of an intensified trade war.

受特朗普的威胁言论影响，美国股市在上周五大幅下跌；而随着周一其立场显露软化迹象，市场出现一定程度的反弹。亚洲股市因在特朗普展现强硬姿态前已休市，周一在贸易战升级的担忧下普遍下跌。

Mr. Trump most likely saw China’s curbs on rare earth minerals, which tighten its grip over global manufacturing, as a personal slight, particularly after the two sides agreed to defuse tensions and scale back tariffs in the spring, said Josh Lipsky, the senior director of the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, a think tank.

智库“大西洋理事会地缘经济中心”高级主任乔什·利普斯基表示，特朗普很可能将中国针对稀土矿物的出口限制——这一措施加强了中国对全球制造业的控制——视为一种对他的个人冒犯。尤其是在双方于春季刚刚达成缓和紧张局势、降低关税的共识之后。

At the same time, the administration wants to keep a summit with Mr. Xi, and a broader trade agreement, on the table, particularly as American farmers begin to feel the trade war’s toll. Mr. Trump raised the possibility on Friday of canceling the meeting, a threat his Treasury secretary backpedaled on Monday.

与此同时，白宫方面仍希望维持与习近平会晤以及达成更广泛贸易协议的可能性，特别是在美国农民开始感受到贸易战冲击的情况下。特朗普在上周五威胁称可能取消与习近平的会晤，但财政部长在周一澄清了这一说法。

China has halted purchases of American farm products such as soybeans, using U.S. growers to gain leverage in the talks.

中国已暂停采购大豆等美国农产品，以此作为在谈判中施压的筹码。

“We know the pressure the administration’s facing on that front,” Mr. Lipsky said. “So it’s competing priorities, and at any given moment one might win out.”

“我们知道政府在这一方面正面临压力，”利普斯基指出。“所以这其实是几个优先事项之间的竞争，而在某个时刻，总会有一个占上风。”

Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said Mr. Trump most likely had two different audiences in mind.

华盛顿无党派机构捍卫民主基金会研究中国问题的高级研究员克雷格·辛格顿指出，特朗普很可能同时在考虑两个不同的受众群体。

“The initial threats were meant to show resolve and punish Beijing’s overreach; the softer tone since is aimed at calming markets and reassuring allies,” Mr. Singleton said. “Trump and his team seem to believe Beijing miscalculated — and they’re leaving room for Xi to walk it back without escalating further.”

辛格顿表示：“最初的威胁意在展现决心，并惩罚北京的越界行为；而之后语气放缓，则是为了安抚市场、安抚盟友。特朗普和他的团队似乎认为北京出现了误判——他们正在为习近平留出余地，让事态不至于进一步升级。”

White House officials did not respond to questions about what prompted Mr. Trump and his aides to change their tone over the weekend.

关于是什么促使特朗普及其幕僚在周末改变态度，白宫官员未作回应。

Rare earth minerals are crucial for making an array of products including motors, brakes, semiconductors and fighter jets. China controls much of the world’s supply, and the minerals have become one of the more pressing sticking points between U.S. and Chinese negotiators.

稀土矿物是制造电机、制动系统、半导体和战斗机等一系列产品的关键材料。中国掌握着全球大部分的稀土供应，这些矿物也成为中美谈判中最棘手的争议焦点之一。

China’s new restrictions would require companies anywhere in the world to obtain licenses if they were exporting products containing even a minimal amount of Chinese-produced rare earths minerals, including for chip manufacturing. Those exports would also be controlled if the minerals were produced using Chinese mining, processing or magnet-making technologies. Companies with any affiliation to foreign militaries would be denied licenses.

根据中国的新限制措施，全球任何企业若出口含有哪怕极少量中国生产的稀土元素（包括用于芯片制造的产品），都必须申请许可证。如果产品使用了中国的开采、加工或磁铁制造技术，这些出口也将受到控制。凡与外国军方有任何关联的企业都将不予颁发许可证。

The restrictions came after the Trump administration took steps to expand its global technology restrictions, and Chinese officials have accused the administration of undermining progress between the two nations.

在中国实施这些管制措施前，特朗普政府已采取行动扩大了美国的全球技术出口限制。中国官方指责美方此举破坏了两国关系的缓和进程。

On Sunday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry pointed to the U.S. Commerce Department’s expansion of the companies subject to sanctions when included on a government “entity list,” a move that would affect many Chinese and Russian firms.

中国商务部上周日指出，美国商务部扩大了列入政府制裁“实体清单”的企业范围，将波及众多中国和俄罗斯公司。

“It’s pretty clear to me that China does not put out the new rare earth restrictions in the absence of the commerce rule,” Mr. Lipsky said. “We had what I would call a kind of temporary truce between the sides over the summer, where neither side wanted to escalate in advance of the two leaders meeting. That was pretty clear on all sides. And the commerce rule was seen by the Chinese as a violation of that, just as what China did on rare earths was seen by the U.S. as a violation.”

利普斯基说：“在我看来很明确的是，若不是因为美国商务部新规，中国不会实施新的稀土管制。今年夏天双方达成了可称之为暂时休战的状态，在两国领导人会晤前都不愿升级矛盾。这点双方都很清楚。而商务部的规定被中方视为违反了这种默契，正如美国也把中国的稀土举措视为一种破坏。”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to calm markets on Monday, saying on the Fox Business Network that Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi could work out their differences before the Nov. 1 deadline that Mr. Trump set for his 100 percent tariffs.

财长斯科特·贝森特周一试图安抚市场，他在福克斯商业频道表示，特朗普与习近平有望在11月1日前——该日期是特朗普为其拟征收的100%关税设定的期限——达成共识。

Mr. Bessent said that the Trump administration was working to find a way to stabilize the finances of farmers.

贝森特称，特朗普政府正努力寻找办法帮助农民改善财务状况。

“The Chinese have unfortunately turned our soybean farmers into pawns,” Mr. Bessent said. “They’re trying to manipulate them, and our farmers overwhelmingly back President Trump.”

“不幸的是，中方把我们的豆农当成了谈判的棋子，”贝森特表示。“他们试图操纵这些农民，但我们的农民仍然压倒性地支持特朗普总统。”

Vice President JD Vance also appeared to leave a door open to a deal with China during an appearance on Fox News on Sunday. Mr. Vance reiterated that Mr. Trump appreciated the friendship he had developed with Mr. Xi.

副总统JD·万斯周日在福克斯新闻露面时，也暗示与中国仍有达成协议的可能性。万斯重申，特朗普珍视与习近平建立的友谊。

But he also warned China not to “respond in an aggressive manner.”

但同时他也警告中国不要“采取激进的回应方式”。

“I guarantee you the president of the United States has far more cards than the People’s Republic of China,” Mr. Vance said.

万斯说：“我可以保证，美国总统手中的牌远比中华人民共和国的多。”

Whether the administration will have the same leverage in the months to come is uncertain. Mr. Vance noted that the Supreme Court was scheduled to hear arguments over the administration’s use of emergency authorities to impose tariffs.

不过，未来几个月美国政府是否还能保住这些筹码尚未可知。万斯指出，最高法院已安排就政府运用紧急授权实施关税的措施进行辩论。

“Unless we have access to this tariff authority, it’s going to be very hard to negotiate with China,” Mr. Vance said.

“除非我们拥有这项关税授权，否则与中国谈判将异常艰难，”万斯表示。

In 2021, the casino mogul Patrick Dumont approached the N.B.A. commissioner with a brazen idea: Bring American professional basketball back to China.

2021年，博彩业大亨帕特里克·杜蒙向NBA总裁提出了一个大胆的建议：让美国职业篮球重返中国。

The N.B.A.’s relationship with Beijing had been in tatters for two years, after a team executive’s tweet in support of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. The resulting controversy cost the league hundreds of millions of dollars. Partners pulled their sponsorships. China’s state broadcaster CCTV stopped airing games.

当时自从一支球队的总经理在网上发帖表示支持香港的民主抗议活动后，NBA与中国政府的关系破裂已有两年。帖子引发的争议已给联盟造成了数亿美元的损失。合作伙伴取消了赞助。中国的官方电视台央视停止了赛事直播。

Western companies that clash so publicly with Beijing rarely get second chances. But Mr. Dumont, an executive with one of the world’s most profitable casino operators, believed that the National Basketball Association could get back into China through Macau, the semiautonomous city where his company ran several highly lucrative casinos.

与中国政府如此公开对抗的西方公司很少会获得第二次机会。但杜蒙认为NBA能通过澳门重返中国，他是一个全球最赚钱的赌场运营商的高管。他的公司在半自治的中国城市澳门经营着几家利润丰厚的赌场。

Mr. Dumont and his family had billions at stake. Las Vegas Sands, which is owned by his mother-in-law, Miriam Adelson, and other family members, was selling its Nevada properties to focus on Asia. The Covid-19 pandemic had devastated profits. And Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, was tightening control of Macau and insisting that casinos diversify beyond gambling.

此事关系到杜蒙及其家族的数十亿美元利益。他的岳母米丽亚姆·阿德尔森和其他家庭成员拥有的拉斯维加斯金沙集团当时正在出售公司在内华达州的资产，把精力集中到亚洲市场。新冠病毒大流行给公司利润造成重创。当时中国最高领导人习近平正在加强对澳门的控制，坚持要求赌场将业务多元化到博彩业以外。

米里亚姆·阿德尔森（左中）与女婿杜蒙（右中）是拉斯维加斯金沙集团的商业伙伴，金沙在澳门经营赌场。他们共同拥有达拉斯独行侠队。

That last demand meant that Sands needed to spend big on outside entertainment or risk its license.

最后这条要求意味着金沙集团需要在赌场以外的娱乐活动上花大钱，否则公司的牌照会面临风险。

The league’s commissioner, Adam Silver, was intrigued by a Sands partnership.

与金沙集团合作的事情引起了NBA总裁萧华(Adam Silver)的兴趣。

What followed was years of diplomacy by Sands, whose owner, Ms. Adelson, is among President Trump’s top donors. Sands executives met repeatedly with Chinese and Macau officials and hosted events celebrating “one country two systems,” Beijing’s term for its governance of Hong Kong and Macau. The Adelson family, with Mr. Dumont at the helm, even bought a majority stake in an N.B.A. team, the Dallas Mavericks. (He said that the purchase had no connection to his efforts to bring the N.B.A. to Macau.)

那之后，金沙集团进行了多年的外交努力（集团所有者阿德尔森是给特朗普总统捐钱最多的人之一）。金沙集团的高管多次与中国和澳门政府的官员会晤，并举办了庆祝“一国两制”的活动，“一国两制”是中国政府用来描述香港和澳门治理的说法。以杜蒙为首的阿德尔森家族甚至买下了NBA达拉斯独行侠队的多数股权。（他称这笔交易与他把NBA带进澳门的努力无关。）

All of it culminates in Macau this weekend in two preseason games between the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns at the Venetian Arena, a Sands property. The games are part of a five-year agreement for the N.B.A. to return to China.

所有这些努力上周终于在澳门取得成功：布鲁克林篮网队和菲尼克斯太阳队在金沙集团旗下的威尼斯人体育馆举行了两场季前赛。这是NBA重返中国五年协议的一部分。

“It’s certainly a belief of ours that the two world’s largest economies should have continued dialogue,” said Ron Reese, a Sands spokesman. “It’s in everybody’s best interest.”

“世界两个最大经济体之间应该继续对话，这肯定是我们抱的信心，”金沙集团发言人罗恩·里斯说。“这符合所有人的最佳利益。”

The story of how the deal came together is an example of how casino profits, connections and quiet diplomacy healed a political wound. It is a win for the N.B.A., which lost more than $300 million in its rift with Beijing. It is also a win for Chinese leaders, who have sought to burnish China’s global image through influencers, sports figures and other celebrities.

完成这笔交易的过程是赌场利润、人脉关系，以及低调外交如何治愈政治伤口的一个例子。达成协议对NBA来说是一场胜利，与中国政府关系破裂导致该联盟损失了逾3亿美元。交易对中国领导人来说也是一场胜利，他们一直在寻求通过网络红人、体育明星和其他名人来提升中国的全球形象。

“Sports exchanges between China and the United States reflect public sentiment and serve both sides’ interests,” the Chinese Embassy in Washington said.

“中美体育交流反映民意，符合双方利益，”中国驻美国大使馆表示。

去年12月，杜蒙（右三）与其他篮球高管宣布NBA季前赛重返中国。

The N.B.A. never abandoned its Chinese ambitions. It kept its China offices open. Teams hired experts to put content on Chinese social media. Executives from the Brooklyn Nets, which is owned by Joe Tsai, the chairman of the Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group, met with Chinese officials and diplomats. The league donated to China during the pandemic and installed the son of a former CCTV executive at the helm of N.B.A. China.

NBA从未放弃其在中国的雄心。它始终维持着中国办公室的运营，各球队聘请专家在中国社交媒体上发布内容。由中国科技巨头阿里巴巴集团董事长蔡崇信所有的布鲁克林篮网队的高管还与中国官员及外交官会面。疫情期间，NBA向中国捐赠物资，并任命前中央电视台高管之子执掌NBA中国。

Mr. Silver said that the league made no promises to China to curtail speech, and that the N.B.A. would defend the rights of players and team officials to speak freely. But league and team officials said they were keenly aware of the consequences of another controversy.

萧华称，NBA未向中国承诺限制言论，并将维护球员及球队官员自由发声的权利。但NBA及球队高管均表示，他们深知再引发一起争议可能导致的后果。

“In our job, we have to talk about what’s the most important thing, which is to speak through the game,” Jordi Fernández, the Nets coach, said in Macau this past week.

“在我们的工作中，必须明确核心——通过比赛传递信息，”篮网队主教练霍尔迪·费尔南德斯上周在澳门表示。

Chaos in a Crucial Market

关键市场的动荡风波

The October 2019 preseason trip to Shanghai and Shenzhen should have been an easy moneymaker.

2019年10月NBA赴上海、深圳的季前赛之旅，本应是一场轻松的吸金活动。

The N.B.A. sent its marquee franchise, the Los Angeles Lakers, to play the Brooklyn Nets. Two of the stars, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, were to face off in a country that loved American basketball. At peak viewership, more people watched the N.B.A. finals in China than in the United States, according to estimates in the Chinese news media.

NBA派出了招牌明星球队洛杉矶湖人队对阵布鲁克林篮网队。勒布朗·詹姆斯与凯里·欧文这两位球星本将在中国这个热爱美国篮球的国家上演对决。据中国媒体估算，NBA总决赛在中国的收视人数峰值超过美国本土。

The trip came amid pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Millions of people were taking to the streets, some of them clashing with the police, in a high-profile challenge to Mr. Xi’s power over the city.

此次赛事举办期间，恰逢香港民主抗议浪潮高涨之际。数百万人走上街头，部分人与警方发生冲突，这场高调抗议直指习近平对香港的管制权。

Days before the games, Daryl Morey, then the general manager of the Houston Rockets, posted an image on Twitter that said, “Fight for freedom. Stand with Hong Kong.”

比赛前几天，时任休斯顿火箭队总经理达里尔·莫雷在Twitter上发布图片，配文“为自由而战，与香港站在一起”。

Derek Chang, then the chief executive of N.B.A. China, recalled what happened next: “Everything started to explode.”

时任NBA中国首席执行官张墀驹回忆起后续情景：“一切开始失控。”

With Chinese officials irate, the N.B.A. released two statements — the Chinese version much more contrite than the English. That angered just about everyone. Mr. Silver gave interviews defending Mr. Morey’s right to free speech.

中国官方对此表示愤怒，NBA随后发布了两份声明——中文版本的语气远比英文版本更显懊悔。这一做法几乎激怒了所有人。萧华则通过采访表态，维护莫雷的言论自由权利。

2019年，香港示威者集会声援休斯顿火箭队总经理达里尔·莫雷。

The broadcaster CCTV announced it would cease airing N.B.A. games. The Lakers and Nets watched from their Shanghai hotel as workers removed ads for the game, peeling their faces off the building across the street. Mr. James, in an interview with The New York Times last year, remembered wondering, “How fast can we get out of here?”

中央电视台宣布暂停转播NBA赛事。湖人队和篮网队在上海下榻的酒店内目睹工作人员拆除赛事广告，将球员的肖像从街对面的建筑外墙撕下。詹姆斯去年在接受《纽约时报》采访时回忆，当时他心里在想：“我们能多快离开这里？”

Mr. Chang said he spent the next few months “trying to look for the avenue back” to China. He did not see one.

张墀驹表示，接下来的几个月里，他一直在“寻找重返中国市场的途径”，但始终未能找到突破口。

A Big Bet on Basketball

对篮球的巨额押注

2019年，球员们在上海下榻的酒店里目睹街对面大楼工作人员撤下宣传海报的场景。

Macau is the world’s casino capital, with gambling returns dwarfing those of Las Vegas. In 2021, when Mr. Dumont broached the idea of N.B.A. games, Macau accounted for nearly 70 percent of his company’s revenue.

澳门是全球博彩之都，其博彩收入远超拉斯维加斯。2021年杜蒙提出举办NBA赛事的想法时，其公司近70%的营收来自澳门。

A former Portuguese colony, Macau was reclaimed by China a quarter-century ago and declared a special administrative zone. Like Hong Kong, it faces increasing pressure from Beijing as Mr. Xi strips away some of its independence.

澳门曾是葡萄牙殖民地，25年前回归中国，成为中国的特别行政区。与香港类似，随着习近平逐步削弱其自治权，澳门面临着来自北京日益增大的压力。

One pressure point was gambling. Foreign casinos need licenses, called concessions, to operate. And as it negotiated the 2022 renewals, the Macau government was demanding: higher taxes, the right to cancel concessions in the name of national security and, crucially, more spending on events unrelated to gambling.

博彩业是其中一个施压焦点。外资赌场需获得名为特许权的牌照才能运营。2022年澳门政府协商特许权续期时提出了多项要求：提高税率、有权以国家安全为由撤销特许权，还有关键的一点是，要求增加与博彩无关的活动投入。

Like sports.

体育赛事便是其中之一。

High rollers had long used casino junkets to evade China’s restrictions on moving cash internationally. The city had a reputation as a haven for bribery. Las Vegas Sands even paid an S.E.C. fine in 2016 to settle accusations of foreign corruption (the company admitted no wrongdoing).

长期以来，高端赌客通过赌场中介规避中国对资金跨境流动的限制，澳门也因此有了贿赂避风港的名声。2016年，拉斯维加斯金沙集团甚至就外国腐败指控向美国证券交易委员会支付罚款以达成和解（该公司未承认存在不当行为）。

Mr. Xi was cracking down on junkets and corruption. Leaders wanted to rebrand Macau as family friendly — with casinos footing the bill.

习近平当时正在打击赌场中介及腐败行为，官方希望将澳门重新打造为适合家庭游玩的场所——重建的相关费用由赌场承担。

Sands suddenly needed to spend billions on outside entertainment to guarantee its license. The arena at the Venetian had hosted mostly concerts and would need to be modernized. But a big-ticket event like the N.B.A. could help publicize the Venetian on the mainland, where casinos are banned from advertising.

金沙集团突然需要投入数十亿美元用于外部娱乐项目，以确保特许权续期。威尼斯人的场馆此前主要用于举办演唱会，亟需现代化改造；而NBA这类高规格赛事能帮助威尼斯人在禁止赌场广告的中国大陆提升知名度。

“We started thinking about our next phase of investment, which is part of our concession renewal. How can we invest more and innovate in both tourism and hospitality?” Mr. Dumont said. “We felt like the N.B.A. would be a good way to do that. We had the arena. We had the obviously very strong fan base in China.”

“我们开始思考下一阶段的投资计划，这也是特许权续期的一部分。如何在旅游和酒店业务上加大投入、实现创新？”杜蒙表示。“我们认为NBA是实现这一目标的绝佳选择。我们有场馆，中国显然也有庞大的球迷基础。”

Tiptoeing Toward Reconciliation

小心翼翼的和解之路

There were signs that Beijing was open to reconciliation.

有迹象表明，中国政府对和解持开放态度。

In February 2020, the N.B.A. sent $2.65 million in medical supplies to Hubei Province, the center of the Covid-19 outbreak, earning it accolades in the Chinese state press.

2020年2月，NBA向新冠疫情重灾区湖北省捐赠了265万美元医疗物资，此举得到中国官方媒体的赞誉。

That year, the league named Michael Ma, the son of a well-regarded former CCTV executive, as the new head of its China operations. The network aired two N.B.A. finals games that year and resumed broadcasting a regular slate of N.B.A. games in 2022. That “sent a signal to the rest of the community, other current business partners or potential business partners, that we were no longer being punished,” Mr. Silver said.

同年，NBA任命中央电视台一位广受认可的前高管之子马晓飞担任中国区新任负责人。中央电视台当年转播了两场NBA总决赛，并于2022年恢复了NBA常规赛的常规转播。萧华表示，这“向业界其他方——无论是现有商业伙伴还是潜在合作伙伴——释放了一个信号：我们不再处于受惩罚状态”。

The following year, Mr. Dumont and his family bought the Mavericks. The N.B.A. had no qualms about being in business with a casino operator. The league hosts a tournament each summer in Las Vegas, where Tilman Fertitta, the Rockets owner, owns the Golden Nugget. Mr. Silver has long supported legalized sports betting.

次年，杜蒙及其家族收购了达拉斯独行侠队。NBA对与赌场运营商合作并无顾虑：联盟每年夏季都会在拉斯维加斯举办赛事，火箭队老板蒂尔曼·费尔蒂塔拥有当地的金块赌场；萧华也长期支持体育博彩合法化。

The China deal was not a factor in the N.B.A. approving the Mavericks sale, Mr. Silver said. But it had advantages. As an owner, Mr. Dumont would have a stake in the league’s success in China. Additionally, the Venetian Arena was controlled by a private company, rather than the state. “It reduces the number of variables that could go wrong,” Mr. Silver said.

萧华称，与中国的合作协议并非NBA批准独行侠队出售的考量因素，但该协议确实存在优势：作为球队老板，NBA中国市场的成功关乎杜蒙的切身利益；此外，威尼斯人由私人公司控制，而非政府机构。萧华表示：“这减少了潜在风险因素。”

The Adelson family has long played informal diplomatic roles. In the 2024 election, Ms. Adelson was the third-largest donor to Mr. Trump. She and her husband, Sheldon Adelson, repeatedly spoke with Mr. Trump about foreign policy, including, in Mr. Adelson’s case, trade policy toward China. Just before Mr. Trump’s inauguration this year, Sands’s chief executive met with a Chinese vice minister to discuss trade and “the company’s growth in China,” according to Xinhua, China’s state news agency.

阿德尔森家族长期扮演着非正式外交角色。在2024年大选中，阿德森夫人是特朗普的第三大捐赠者。她与丈夫谢尔顿·阿德尔森曾多次就外交政策与特朗普沟通，其中谢尔顿还曾谈及对华贸易政策。据中国官方媒体新华社报道，今年特朗普就职前夕，金沙集团首席执行官曾与中国一位副部长会面，探讨贸易问题及“公司在华发展”。

Mr. Dumont did not say when the N.B.A. came up in discussions. But he said his pitch to the government focused on making Macau a broader tourism destination, just as Mr. Xi wants.

杜蒙未透露会谈中是否提及NBA，但他表示，自己向中国政府阐述的核心思路是将澳门打造成更全面的旅游目的地，这与习近平的愿景一致。

“When we explain the context about using the N.B.A. to come to Macau and have it be a very prominent feature of tourism for the city, everyone was really excited,” he said.

他说：“当我们阐述借助NBA赛事吸引游客来澳门，使其成为澳门旅游业核心亮点这一构想时，所有人都表现出极大热情。”

In December, three years after Mr. Dumont raised the idea, the league announced a deal to play preseason games in Macau.

去年12月，杜蒙提出这一想法三年之后，NBA正式宣布协议，将在澳门举办季前赛。

Mr. Silver returned to China in March for the first time since 2019.

2025年3月，萧华自2019年后首次重返中国。

He said the N.B.A. and the Chinese government would need to be flexible in their renewed relationship. “If this is about ideological purity on either side,” he said in an interview, “it will never be achieved.”

他表示，NBA与中国政府在重启的合作关系中需保持灵活性。“如果双方都追求意识形态上的纯粹性，”他在采访中说，“事情永远无法做成。”

Global markets diverged on Monday. Stocks in Asia fell in their first reaction to a renewed outbreak of hostility in the trade war between Beijing and Washington, while markets in the United States and Europe rebounded as U.S. officials began to try to cool tensions.

周一，全球市场走势出现分化。亚洲股市对中美贸易战敌意重燃的初步反应是下跌，美国和欧洲市场则因美国官员开始试图缓和紧张局势而出现反弹。

The S&P 500 index rose 1.6 percent on Monday, its biggest rise since May, helping to regain some ground lost in the previous trading session, which had recorded the steepest decline in months.

标准普尔500指数周一上涨1.6%，为5月以来的最大单日涨幅，帮助收复了前一交易日的部分失地，前一交易日该指数录得数月来的最大跌幅。

Mr. Trump had posted on social media Friday that he was considering a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese products and threatened to cancel a planned meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Following the sharp market response, however, Mr. Trump and his allies have struck a more diplomatic tone toward China.

特朗普上周五在社交媒体上发文称，他正在考虑对中国商品“大幅提高关税”，并威胁取消与中国国家主席习近平计划中的会面。然而，在市场大幅反应之后，特朗普及其盟友对中国的语气转为更加缓和。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said in an interview on Fox Business on Monday that the two sides had “substantially de-escalated” and played down the possibility of steep new tariffs. Mr. Trump said on social media on Sunday that the United States did not want to “hurt” China, adding that “it will all be fine!”

财政部长贝森特周一对福克斯商业新闻表示，双方已经“大幅缓和”局势，并淡化了征收新的高额关税的可能性。特朗普周日在社交媒体上表示，美国不想“伤害”中国，并说“一切都会好起来的！”

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which is driven by big companies like the chipmaker Nvidia, gained 2.2 percent. Nvidia has been caught up in the fight for technological primacy between the United States and China.

以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨2.2%，该指数由芯片制造商英伟达等大公司驱动。英伟达一直处于中美技术主导权之争的漩涡中。

Markets in Europe also traded mostly higher, with the Stoxx 600 index up slightly.

欧洲市场多数走高，斯托克600指数小幅上涨。

But stocks in Asia fell on Monday — in the first chance for investors to respond to Friday’s development — with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropping roughly 1.5 percent. Benchmark indexes in South Korea and Taiwan fell about 1 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index also declined slightly. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday. Monday’s losses in Asia were less than those in U.S. markets on Friday.

但周一亚洲股市下跌——这是投资者对周五事态发展的首次回应——香港恒生指数下挫约1.5%。韩国和台湾的基准指数下跌约1%，上证指数也略有下跌。日本股市因假期休市。周一亚洲市场的跌幅小于美国市场上周五的跌幅。

Mr. Trump’s latest threats, which included a 100 percent tariff on Chinese products starting on Nov. 1, came in response to China’s announcement that it would curb exports of some rare-earth minerals needed to make high-tech products including semiconductors, electric vehicles and jet fighters.

特朗普的最新威胁包括从11月1日起对中国商品征收100%的关税，此举是对中国宣布将限制出口部分稀土矿物的回应。这些稀土矿物是制造半导体、电动汽车和战斗机等高科技产品的必需原料。

The recent bout of volatility was the most notable since April, when markets plunged after the United States and China announced that they would impose tariffs of more than 100 percent on each others’ goods. They agreed in May to temporarily slash the tariffs, and investors took that move as a sign that their trade conflict was easing.

最近的这轮波动是自4月以来最显著的一次，当时中美宣布将对彼此商品征收超过100%的关税，股市随即暴跌。双方在5月同意暂时降低关税，投资者将此举视为贸易冲突缓和的信号。

 The softening of Mr. Trump’s Friday tariff threat could be seen as another sign that market declines act as a “consistent brake on policymakers,” Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank wrote in a note on Monday. “There are large incentives to avoid sell-offs, and we’ve seen numerous policy reversals under market pressure,” he added.

德意志银行的亨利·艾伦周一在报告中写道，特朗普上周五关税威胁的软化可以被视为市场下跌对政策制定者构成“持续性制约”的又一迹象。他还说：“决策层有强烈动机去避免股市抛售，我们已看到在市场压力下多次出现政策逆转。”

Even so, Beijing’s trade curbs and Mr. Trump’s tariff threats show how quickly calm can give way to confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.

即便如此，北京的贸易限制和特朗普的关税威胁表明，全球两大经济体之间的平静态势能以多快速度演变为对抗。

The latest developments “raise the possibility that the two countries could once again enter into a trade war,” said Takahide Kiuchi, the executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo. “If this were to happen, the impact on the global economy would be severe,” he said.

东京野村综合研究所的首席经济学家木内登英表示，最新的事态发展“增加了两国可能再次陷入贸易战的可能性”。他说：“如果发生这种情况，对全球经济的影响将是严重的。”

The key question for investors is whether the threats are serious or merely attempts to gain negotiating leverage ahead of bilateral talks between China and the United States set for later this month, the investment bank Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

投资银行高盛在报告中写道，对投资者来说，关键问题在于，这些威胁究竟是认真的，还是仅仅为了在本月晚些时候的中美双边会谈之前获取谈判筹码。

“We lean toward the latter interpretation and expect the ultimate resolution will be an extension of the current tariff pause,” it said.

报告称：“我们倾向于后一种解读，并预计最终的解决方案将是延长当前的关税暂停期。”

 As of last month, the trade tensions with the United States had not slowed Chinese shipments overseas, according to data released by the Chinese government on Monday. In September, overall exports grew 8.3 percent, compared with a year earlier. Shipments to the United States fell 27 percent, but China offset that downturn with strong exports to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa.

根据中国政府周一发布的数据，截至上月，与美国的贸易紧张局势并未减缓中国的出口 。9月整体出口同比增长8.3%。对美出口下降了27%，但中国对欧盟、东南亚和非洲的强劲出口抵消了这一下降。

Relations between China and Europe took a hit after the Dutch government said late on Sunday that it was taking control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned chipmaker based in the Netherlands, because of “serious governance shortcomings.” Wingtech, the chipmaker’s parent company, said in a filing that it strongly opposed the Dutch government’s action, which it described as driven by “geopolitical bias.” Wingtech’s shares fell 10 percent in Shanghai on Monday.

荷兰政府周日晚些时候表示将接管中资背景的荷兰芯片制造商安世半导体，理由是“严重的管理缺陷”，中欧关系受到冲击。安世半导体的母公司闻泰科技在文件中表示，强烈反对荷兰政府的这一行动，称其由“地缘政治偏见”驱动。周一，闻泰科技的股价在上海下跌了10%。

Investors getting to grips with geopolitics are also gauging the impact of the U.S. government shutdown as it approaches its third week. The closure was “starting to affect the real economy,” Mr. Bessent said on Fox Business.

随着美国政府停摆进入第三周，关注地缘政治的投资者也在评估其影响。贝森特对福克斯商业新闻表示，政府停摆“开始影响实体经济”。

Traders are about to get a batch of information about the state of the U.S. economy from companies’ latest quarterly earnings. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and other economic bellwethers are set to release earnings on Tuesday.

交易员们即将从公司最新的季报中获得美国经济状况的一系列信息。摩根大通、高盛、强生等经济风向标公司将于周二公布财报。

JPMorgan said on Monday that it would facilitate some $1.5 trillion in financing and investments over the next 10 years, focused on industries “critical to national economic security and resiliency” in the United States. “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive, said in a statement.

摩根大通周一表示，将在未来10年促成约1.5万亿美元的融资和投资，重点关注对美国“国家经济安全与韧性至关重要”的行业。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在声明中表示：“我们痛心地看到，美国在关键矿物、产品和制造领域已过度依赖不可靠的供应来源。”

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, pledged unwavering support for women’s rights as he stood on a stage in Beijing, against a backdrop of national flags from around the world. He praised the achievements of women in sports, technology and entrepreneurship. He hailed how China had supported them to lift up “half the sky,” as Mao Zedong famously said.

中国最高领导人习近平站在北京一个以世界各国国旗为背景的演讲台上发表讲话，承诺坚定不移支持妇女权利。他高度赞扬了女性在体育、技术和创业领域取得的成就。他还引用毛泽东的名言，称中国帮助女性顶起“半边天”。

Mr. Xi was speaking at the 2025 Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women, an event on Monday marking the 30th anniversary of a groundbreaking United Nations conference on women’s rights that was held in Beijing in 1995. During that conference, representatives of 189 countries promised to end violence against women and promote the participation of women in politics and business.

习近平是在2025年的全球妇女峰会上发表这番讲话的。峰会于周一开幕，是为了纪念1995年在北京举行的具有里程碑意义的联合国妇女权利大会30周年。在那次会议上，189个国家的代表曾承诺结束针对妇女的暴力，促进妇女参与政治和商业。

Mr. Xi described Monday’s gathering as a celebration of how China had delivered on those promises. “Chinese women in the new era are participating in the entire process of national and social governance with unprecedented confidence and vigor,” he said. “In China’s new journey of modernization, every woman is a protagonist.”

习近平把周一的峰会描述为对中国兑现了这些承诺的庆祝。“新时代的中国女性正在以前所未有的自信和活力参与国家和社会治理全过程，”他说。“中国式现代化新征程上，每一位妇女都是主角！”

But beneath the pageantry, the fight for women’s rights in China has in some ways become more difficult in recent years, activists say.

但在这场盛况的背后，活动人士指出，中国女性争取权利的斗争近年来已在某种程度上变得更加艰难。

While the 1995 conference was a landmark moment for Chinese feminists, spurring the creation of new, independent groups working on women’s rights, those groups have largely been decimated as Mr. Xi has overseen a crackdown on civil society.

虽然1995年的世界妇女大会对中国女权主义者来说是一个里程碑式的时刻，推动了一批新的独立妇女权益组织的诞生，但这些团体如今已在习近平主导的对公民社会的打压中几乎被摧毁殆尽。

The party sees any independently organized movement as a possible threat to its authority. Women’s issues in particular have shown the potential to mobilize huge numbers of people to both online and even offline action, as recent high-profile incidents of violence against women have shown.

中共把任何独立组织的运动视为对其权威的潜在威胁。尤其是女性相关议题，它们展现出能够动员大量民众形成网络声浪乃至现实行动的潜力，正如近年来一些备受瞩目的针对女性的暴力事件所表明的那样。

Women’s rights activists have been arrested. Feminist social media accounts have been shut down. State media outlets have warned against “extreme feminism” and said that it is a foreign ideology intended to weaken China.

多名女权活动人士被逮捕。女权相关的社交媒体账号被关闭。官媒警告人们警惕“极端女权主义”，称其为一种旨在削弱中国的外来意识形态。

北京附近的一个公园，一块刻有描绘胎儿发育全过程图像的石影壁。

Mr. Xi has also repeatedly exhorted women to embrace the value of marriage and childbearing, as the government tries to reverse China’s falling birth rate. Local government officials have embraced increasingly invasive tactics to push women to start families.

随着政府试图扭转中国生育率下降的趋势，习近平也已多次劝诫女性接受婚姻和生育的价值观。地方政府官员也采取越来越侵入性的手段，推动女性建立家庭。

Monday’s meeting was a testament to the rigidly controlled version of women’s advancement that China has tried to promote instead. In the run-up to the event, Chinese publishers released two books of English translations of speeches and articles by Mr. Xi about women’s issues, in which he exhorted Chinese women’s groups not to blindly subscribe to Western ideas of equality.

周一的会议显示了中国试图推广其僵硬控制下的女性进步。在会议召开前夕，中国的出版商出版了两本书，它们是收录了习近平关于妇女问题的讲话和文章的英译本。习近平在这些文章和讲话中敦促中国的妇女团体不要盲目追随西方的平等观念。

The government also released a report on China’s achievements on women’s rights, in which it said the first step toward continued progress was “upholding the overall leadership of the Communist Party of China.”

政府还发布了一份关于中国妇女权利成就的报告，报告称迈向继续取得进步的第一步是“坚持党对一切工作的领导”。

(Even within the party’s carefully choreographed hierarchy, though, the rise of women has stalled. There are no women in the current Politburo, the Communist Party’s executive policymaking body, for the first time in two decades.)

（即使在中共精心设计的权力层级内部，女性的上升也已经停顿。中共的政策决策机构——中共中央政治局20年来第一次没有女性成员。）

Lu Pin, an activist who moved to the United States after a prominent online platform for feminist issues that she founded was shut down, said that Monday’s conference showed how little the government was willing to do beyond lip service to women’s rights. After the 1995 conference, activists could take advantage of the government’s rhetoric, and its desire to win global standing, to push for real advances, she said. But as the government had grown more confident in its stature, that was no longer possible.

活动人士吕频曾创办了一个讨论女性问题的知名线上平台，该平台被关闭后，她移居美国。她说，周一的会议表明，政府除了在妇女权利问题上开些空头支票外，几乎没有实际作为。她说，1995年世界妇女大会后，活动人士还能借助政府口头上说的东西以及它想在全球享有地位的愿望，来推动实质性进步。但这已不再可能，因为政府对自己的地位越来越自信。

“The party-state is so confident in its legitimacy that it’s unwilling and doesn’t need to justify itself domestically or internationally by granting women rights,” she wrote in a message. “The state has largely closed the door to negotiation.”

“党国对自己的正当性相当自信了，不愿也不需要通过给予妇女权利来对国内和国际自证，”她在一条信息中写道。“今天国家基本关闭协商的大门，”

北京大学的学生为拍照做准备，摄于今年5月。30年前，女生仅占中国大学生人数的三分之一，如今在大学读书的女生数量已超了男生。

By many measures, Chinese women are far better off today than three decades ago. In 1995, they made up only a third of university students; now they outnumber men in enrollment. As the country has grown wealthier, the rates of maternal mortality and poverty have fallen steeply.

从许多方面来看，中国女性现在的境况比30年前好得多。1995年，女性在大学生中仅占总数的三分之一；而如今，读大学的女性人数已超过了男性。随着国家变得越来越富裕，孕产妇死亡率和贫困率已大幅下降。

But Chinese feminists said the biggest accomplishment was changing societal attitudes. Divorce, once taboo, has become more accepted. Female authors, comedians and directors have won acclaim by calling out sexism.

但中国女权主义者称，最大的成就是社会观念的转变。离婚曾是一大忌，现在已变得更加为人所接受。公开讨论性别歧视问题的女性作家、女性喜剧演员和女性导演赢得了赞誉。

Those changing attitudes have also translated into legal victories. In 2016, the government enacted a landmark anti-domestic violence law, though enforcement remains spotty.

社会观念的转变也推动了法律层面的进步。2016年，政府颁布了具有里程碑意义的反家庭暴力法，尽管执行力度仍参差不齐。

The credit for such achievements lies mostly with Chinese women, who have continued demanding equality despite increasing official pressure against their advocacy, said a Beijing-based feminist activist who also participated in the 1995 conference, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of government retaliation.

一名曾经参加了1995年世界妇女大会的北京女权活动人士说，这些成就主要归功于中国女性持续争取平等权利的努力，尽管她们的倡导活动面临着越来越大的官方压力。由于担心遭到政府报复，这名活动人士要求不具名。

An official from the government-run All-China Women’s Federation made clear the government’s disapproval of certain forms of feminism at a recent news briefing.

中华全国妇女联合会的一名官员在最近的新闻发布会上明确表示，政府不认可某些形式的女权主义。

A reporter from People’s Daily, the party’s official mouthpiece, asked how China should respond to countries that use feminism for “political maneuvering” — the accusation that state media often lobs at critics of China’s record on women’s rights.

中共官方喉舌《人民日报》的一名记者提了个问题：中国应该如何回应那些利用女权主义进行“政治操纵”的国家——这是中国官媒经常用来指责在中国女权问题上持批评态度者的说法。

The official, Guo Ye, said: “I deeply resent these voices and people.”

一位名叫郭晔的官员说：“对这些声音和人，我其实从内心非常的痛恨。”

She continued: “Those who wield the banner of feminism, and especially extremism in feminism, their goal is to disrupt this country.”

她继续说道：“打着女权主义，特别是女权中的极端主义这种旗号的人，他们的目的是要把这个国家搞乱。”

From cars and computer chips to tanks and fighter jets, China’s new export restrictions represent a sweeping effort to control global commerce and have set off a renewed trade fight that pits Beijing against not only the United States but also Europe.

从汽车和电脑芯片到坦克和战斗机，中国新出台的出口限制措施标志着其全面掌控全球贸易的努力，并再度引燃贸易战——这次北京不仅要面对美国，还将欧洲置于了对立面。

The new regulations, which take effect in stages on Nov. 8 and Dec. 1, apply to the entire world, sharply escalating China’s sway over critical manufacturing at a time of increased international fractures over trade. The restrictions led President Trump on Friday to threaten to impose new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1.

新规将于11月8日和12月1日分阶段生效，适用范围覆盖全球。在全球贸易分裂加剧的当下，这意味着中国对关键制造业的掌控力急剧增强。受此影响，特朗普总统上周五威胁称将从11月1日起对中国进口商品加征100%的新关税。

The rules go far beyond China’s limits since April on the export of rare earth metals, which are mined and processed mainly in China, as well as magnets made from those metals. In a series of announcements on Thursday, China extended its restrictions to worldwide shipments of electric motors, computer chips and other devices that have become central to modern life and are now manufactured mainly in China.

此次新规的管控范围远超中国自4月起实施的稀土金属（主要在中国开采和加工）及稀土磁铁出口限制。在上周四发布的一系列公告中，中国将限制范围扩大至电动马达、计算机芯片及其他已深度融入现代生活且主要在中国制造的设备的全球流动。

The regulations prohibit exports from China to any country of materials or components for use in military equipment. Among the items banned are the small yet powerful electric motors in missiles and fighter jets and the materials for crucial range finders in tanks and artillery that are used to zero in on distant targets.

新规严禁向任何国家出口用于军事装备的材料或零部件。被列入禁令的物资包括导弹和战斗机中使用的小型大功率电机，以及坦克和火炮中用于锁定远距离目标的关键测距仪材料。

These rules have drawn particular concern in the West because of their potential to debilitate Europe’s efforts to supply arms to Ukraine and to rebuild Europe’s own militaries to counter Russian aggression.

这些规定在西方引发了特别的关切，因为它们可能削弱欧洲向乌克兰提供武器的能力，以及欧洲为对抗俄罗斯侵略而重整军备的努力。

“We’ve entered into a new phase of the economic conflict,” said Jay Truesdale, who worked in the administration of President Barack Obama on critical mineral policies. He is now the chief executive of TD International, a global strategic advisory firm.

“我们已经进入经济冲突的新阶段，”曾在奥巴马政府负责关键矿物政策工作的杰伊·特鲁斯代尔表示。他目前是全球战略咨询公司TD International的首席执行官。

Beijing’s decision to put a total ban on exports of materials for military use has geopolitical resonance in Europe. Countries there are racing to strengthen their military defenses from an increasingly aggressive Russia. Many armaments require rare earths and commodities from China. Chinese officials have vigorously opposed European Union tariffs on electric vehicles from China, and some experts saw the export controls as a fresh expression of Beijing’s pique.

北京全面禁止军用材料出口的决定在欧洲引发了地缘政治层面的震动。当前欧洲各国正竞相加强军事防御，以应对越来越具侵略性的俄罗斯。而许多武器装备都需要来自中国的稀土及大宗商品。中国官员此前强烈反对欧盟对中国电动车加征关税，有专家认为此次出口管制正是北京不满情绪的新一轮表达。

The raft of regulations means that companies not involved in arms manufacturing must obtain export licenses from China’s Ministry of Commerce to move products with Chinese content across any national borders around the world. The rules broaden the use of elaborate procedures requiring exporters to submit technical drawings of every product their customers want to manufacture with Chinese rare earths and describe how these products will move through global supply chains.

这系列规定意味着，若要在全球范围内跨境运输含中国成分的产品，非军工企业也必须获得中国商务部颁发的出口许可证。新规还扩大了复杂的申报程序，要求出口商提交客户拟用中国稀土制造的每件产品的技术情况说明，并详细说明这些产品将在全球供应链中的流通情况。

After arms manufacturers, the global auto industry appears to be the second-most vulnerable sector, rare-earth industry specialists said. The thousands of companies that produce parts were already the hardest hit by China’s requirement in April that many kinds of rare earth magnets cannot leave the country without licenses.

稀土行业专家指出，除了军工企业，全球汽车产业似乎是受冲击第二严重的行业。早在4月中国要求多种类型的稀土磁铁不得未经许可出口时，全球数以千家零部件制造企业就已遭受最严重的冲击。

A single gasoline-powered car can have more than 40 different rare earth magnets inside electric motors that power the brakes, seats, steering, power windows and other systems. Electric cars have even more rare earth magnets, which are used to turn the wheels.

一辆普通燃油车的电动马达内可能装有40多块稀土磁铁，用于驱动刹车、座椅、方向盘、电动车窗等系统。电动汽车的稀土磁铁用量更大，这些磁铁用于驱动车轮。

American and European auto parts producers have encountered months of delays in obtaining these export licenses. China has started to issue licenses but the process has been slow and cumbersome, industry officials say.

为了申请这些出口许可证，美国和欧洲的汽车零部件制造商已经经历了数月的延误。业内人士表示，中国虽然已经开始发放许可证，但流程缓慢且繁琐。

China has modeled its rare earth regulations on American rules for trade in a few of the world’s most powerful computer chips. But rare earths are more widely used.

在制定稀土出口管制时，中国借鉴了美国针对高性能计算机芯片贸易的监管规定。不过，稀土的用途要比芯片广泛得多。

Many parts manufacturers have stopped assembling electric motors outside China with rare earth magnets from China, and now bypass Beijing’s rules by buying entire electric motors from China. But the latest regulations published by China’s Ministry of Commerce could prevent this workaround.

许多零部件制造商已停止在中国境外组装含稀土磁铁的电动马达，转而通过直接从中国购买电动马达整机来规避北京的规定。但中国商务部最新公布的法规可能会堵上这一漏洞。

The rules encompass almost any product in which rare earths make up 0.1 percent or more of the value. That means they cover not just magnets but also electric motors and even much bigger systems that have electric motors with rare earth magnets inside.

新规几乎涵盖了所有稀土价值占产品总值0.1%及以上的商品。这意味着管控范围不仅包括磁铁本身，还包括电动马达，甚至更大型的系统——只要系统中含有带稀土磁铁的电动马达也在管制范围之内。

The costliest components of car seats, for example, are the motors that adjust them. And the most expensive pieces in these motors are the rare earth magnets.

以汽车座椅为例，最昂贵的部件是负责调节位置的电机，而这些电机中最贵的部分正是稀土磁铁。

The new rules apply to any shipments across national borders, not just in or out of China. European automakers, in particular, face a daunting task of seeking Chinese export licenses to move car parts within Europe.

新规适用于所有跨境流动的产品，不仅限于中国的进出口。尤其是欧洲的汽车制造商更是面临严峻挑战——欧盟境内的零部件流通可能也需要申请中国的出口许可证。

Many companies have recently tried to limit their dependence on China by buying rare earths and rare earth magnets from the few producers outside China. But Beijing’s latest regulations assert jurisdiction over much of this production as well.

近来，许多企业试图减少对中国的依赖，转向少数几家位于中国以外的稀土及稀土磁铁生产商采购。但北京最新的法规宣称对这些生产行为同样拥有管辖权。

The rules also say that any rare earth-related products made outside of China but using Chinese technology are also covered by China’s export control rules.

此外，规定还指出，凡是在中国境外生产但使用了中国技术制造的稀土相关产品，同样受中国出口管制条例的约束。

Rare earth refineries and magnet factories all over the world have been buying Chinese equipment for the past 20 years. Many equipment vendors in North America and Europe closed when most of the world’s rare earth mining shifted to China in the late 1990s.

过去20年间，全球各地的稀土精炼厂和磁铁工厂采购的是中国设备。当全球稀土开采在1990年代末主要转移至中国后，北美和欧洲的多数设备供应商均已停产。

Why now? Why did it take 736 days?

为什么是现在？为什么花了整整736天？

That was the question coursing through the celebrations on the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on Saturday night, as hundreds of thousands of people poured into Israel’s Hostage Square. They were anticipating the release early Monday of the 20 hostages believed still alive and the possible end of a brutal war that left the Gaza Strip destroyed, and Israel at once stronger and more diplomatically isolated than ever.

上周六晚，在特拉维夫和耶路撒冷的街头庆祝活动中，这个问题在人们心中涌动。成千上万人涌入以色列的“人质广场”，期盼着周一凌晨20名据信仍活着的人质获释，以及一场残酷战争的可能终结——这场战争导致加沙地带化为废墟，让以色列变得更强大的同时，却在外交上陷入前所未有的孤立。

Holding up photos of the remaining hostages, the crowds cheered Saturday evening at the mention of President Donald Trump, who many Israelis believe forced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seize this moment. They listened intently to Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, address the cheering throngs.

人们高举剩下的人质的照片，在听到总统唐纳德·特朗普的名字时爆发出欢呼。许多以色列人认为，是特朗普迫使总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡抓住了这一时机。他们专注聆听着特朗普总统的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和女婿贾里德·库什纳向欢腾的民众发表讲话。

But overarching the moment was the question of whether this deal could have been done far sooner, when more hostages may have been alive, and before tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed. That argument lay behind the boos that ran through the crowd when Witkoff mentioned Netanyahu. Hearing the reaction, Witkoff tried to defend Netanyahu, insisting that “I was in the trenches with the prime minister” and saw how he was seeking “a safer, stronger future for the Jewish people.” That was met with more booing.

但此刻最核心的问题是：这项协议是否本可以更早达成？那样或许有更多人质存活，数万巴勒斯坦人也不至于丧生。当维特科夫提到内塔尼亚胡时，人群中响起的嘘声正源于此。听到这番反应，维特科夫试图为内塔尼亚胡辩护，坚称“我与总理并肩作战”，并见证他如何为犹太人民寻求“更安全、更强大的未来”。但这番话引来了更多嘘声。

Historians may argue for years whether the Israel-Hamas war could have ended a year ago this week, when Israeli forces tripped upon and killed Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief and architect of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre. Or, alternatively, whether Israel and Hamas missed a chance to build on the ceasefire that President Joe Biden and his aides left in place before Trump took over. Despite the fact that Witkoff was involved in the January deal, it did not stick, and early in Trump’s term the war resumed, bringing with it more death and suffering.

历史学家或许将为此争论多年——以色列与哈马斯的战争是否本可以在一年前的这个星期结束？那时以军偶然发现并击毙了哈马斯首领、2023年10月7日屠杀的策划者——叶海亚·辛瓦尔。又或者，以色列和哈马斯是否错过了一个机会，未能将拜登总统及其团队在特朗普上任前斡旋达成的停火协议进一步推进？当时维特科夫参与了1月份的协议谈判，但协议未能维持下去。特朗普上任不久，战争便再度爆发，导致了更多的死亡与苦难。

Debates over how wars could have ended sooner, and saved thousands or millions of lives, are hardly new. Historians are still arguing over whether Japan would have surrendered anyway if President Harry Truman had decided against dropping two atomic weapons; whether President Richard Nixon waited years too long to get out of Vietnam. Biden and Trump argued for an earlier exit from Afghanistan.

关于战争本可如何更早结束，从而挽救千万乃至千百万生命的争论，远不是什么新鲜的问题。历史学家仍在探讨：若杜鲁门总统当初未决定投放两颗原子弹，日本是否仍会投降？尼克松总统是否在越南战争撤军问题上拖延了数年？拜登与特朗普都曾主张更早撤出阿富汗。

史蒂夫·维特科夫与贾里德·库什纳、伊万卡·特朗普周六在特拉维夫的集会上。

“This is a different moment — we didn’t have then what President Trump has now,” Antony Blinken, Biden’s secretary of state, said in a telephone interview over the weekend. “Hamas is defeated as a military organization, isolated diplomatically, it’s lost its patrons — Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis — and it has alienated the people of Gaza.”

“当下形势截然不同——我们当时不具备特朗普总统如今拥有的条件，”拜登政府的国务卿布林肯周末在电话采访中表示。“如今哈马斯作为军事组织已被击败，外交上陷入孤立，失去了伊朗、真主党和胡塞武装等资助者，还疏远了加沙民众。”

He added: “Israel long ago achieved its war aims of destroying Hamas’ capacity to repeat Oct. 7 and killing the leaders responsible — at great cost to Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire. The Israeli people want the remaining hostages home and the war to end.”

他还说：“以色列早已实现其战争目标——摧毁哈马斯重演10月7日事件的能力，并消灭相关负责人，但这也让陷入战火的巴勒斯坦平民付出了巨大代价。以色列民众希望剩余人质回家，也希望战争结束。”

Here is a look at some of the explanations for why the hostage release — and perhaps a new start for Gaza — is happening now.

以下是关于人质获释——以及加沙局势可能迎来新转机——的若干解析。

Feints, Bluffs and an Election

试探、虚张声势与选举因素

Two years ago this week, after the Oct. 7 attack, Biden traveled to Israel to show his solidarity. But he also issued a warning — strongly in private, his aides reported later, and more gently in public — that there was a risk to overreaction.

两年前的本周，即10月7日袭击事件后，拜登访问以色列以表支持。但拜登同时发出了警告——其助手事后透露，他在私下态度强硬，虽然公开场合较为温和——提醒以色列过度反应存在风险。

“Justice must be done,” Biden said on his one-day visit on Oct. 18, 2023. “But I caution that, while you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it. After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. While we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.”

“正义必须得到伸张，”2023年10月18日，拜登在为期一天的访问中表示。“但我要提醒的是，即便满腔怒火，也不要被怒火吞噬。9·11事件后，美国也曾愤怒。我们寻求正义、实现正义的同时，也曾犯下错误。”

Biden was reacting to the fact that Israel had cut off virtually all food and fuel to Gaza. For a while, the United States kept the pressure off the Israelis, even vetoing a U.N. Security Council resolution to keep humanitarian corridors open to allow the flow of food and civilians. Biden would need time, U.S. officials maintained, to quietly negotiate a deal.

拜登此番表态，源于以色列当时几乎切断了对加沙的所有食品和燃料供应。有一段时间，美国并未对以色列施压，甚至否决了联合国安理会开放人道主义走廊以保障食品运输和民众撤离的决议。美国官员称，拜登需要时间通过秘密谈判达成协议。

But neither side was ready. Hamas spent the summer of 2024 arguing over how far Israeli forces would have to pull back along the Philadelphi corridor, a narrow strip along the border between Gaza and Egypt. “The blame is on Hamas, because it could have been done all these steps earlier, but they refused to discuss disarmament or relinquishing control,” said Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence for Israel who runs MIND Israel, a strategic consulting company. “But it is also on Netanyahu, because it wasn’t until last summer that he was even willing to lay out demands for ending the war.”

但双方当时均未做好准备。2024年夏季，哈马斯就以色列军队需从菲拉德尔菲走廊（加沙与埃及边境的狭长地带）后撤的距离争论不休。“责任在哈马斯，因为所有这些步骤本可更早完成，他们却拒绝讨论解除武装或放弃控制权，”以色列前军事情报负责人、战略咨询公司MIND以色列负责人阿莫斯·亚德林表示。“但内塔尼亚胡也有责任，直到去年夏天，他才愿意提出结束战争的具体要求。”

Then Trump won the presidency back, and the Biden administration was determined to get a ceasefire in place by January, before it left office. It drafted a peace plan, much of which was quite similar to the “20 point plan” Trump recently issued. There was slow progress: More than 130 hostages had been released by the time the January ceasefire took place.

随后特朗普再次当选总统，拜登政府决心在1月离任前促成停火，为此起草了一份和平计划，其中大部分内容与特朗普近期公布的“20点计划”高度相似。谈判进展缓慢：到1月停火协议生效时，已有超过130多名人质获释。

“We handed over a ceasefire that silenced the guns, had hostages coming out and aid going in, along with a day-after plan to make it permanent,” Blinken said. But when the new administration took over, “the moment was squandered,” he added. “Israel and Hamas went back to war for eight months.”

“我们提交的停火协议实现了停火、人质释放和援助进入，还附带了一份实现停火永久化的战后规划，”布林肯表示。但新政府上任后，“这个契机被浪费了，”他说。“以色列和哈马斯重新陷入了长达8个月的战争。”

Israeli officials tell a different story. Biden was a lame duck, they noted, and disengaged. Trump was a known entity, less likely to lecture Netanyahu in private or public. They put their money on a new president, and a new negotiating team.

以色列官员则给出了不同说法。他们指出，拜登当时已是跛脚鸭总统，对事务的参与度下降；而特朗普是一个熟悉的人物，不太会在私下或公开场合对内塔尼亚胡说教。因此，以色列选择押注新总统及其新谈判团队。

A Changed Battlefield in 2025

2025年战局的转变

Much changed in Israel’s favor in the new year.

新的一年里，诸多变化开始对以色列有利。

Sinwar’s death sent Hamas into a leadership crisis. Israel’s military pressure grew as Hamas’ supply of ammunition was depleted. And “the 12-day war with Iran really moved the needle,” said Brett McGurk, who had negotiated in the region since the Bush administration and was running the talks for Biden. Suddenly, Hamas realized that the country that had both bankrolled and supplied it could no longer be relied upon.

辛瓦尔的死亡使哈马斯陷入领导层危机；随着哈马斯弹药耗尽，以色列的军事压力不断加大；“与伊朗的12天战争真正改变了局势，”自布什政府时期就参与该地区谈判、曾为拜登政府主持相关对话的布雷特·麦古克表示。哈马斯突然意识到，长期为其提供资金和武器的伊朗已不再可靠。

以色列6月对德黑兰实施空袭造成的破坏。伊朗长期以来一直是哈马斯的资助者。

Multiple factors, Palestinian analysts say, pushed Hamas to begin rethinking the value of continuing to hold the hostages.

巴勒斯坦分析人士称，多重因素促使哈马斯开始重新审视“继续扣押人质”的价值。

“In the beginning, Hamas thought taking the hostages would deter the Israeli government from waging a big war,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian professor of political science in Egypt, who fled Gaza early in the war. Now, the logic of holding hostages may have flipped: Rather than protect Gaza from attack, several analysts have noted, their existence was giving Netanyahu an excuse to press ahead.

“起初，哈马斯认为扣押人质能阻止以色列发动大规模战争，”战争初期从加沙逃离、现居埃及的巴勒斯坦裔政治学教授姆哈伊马尔·阿布萨达表示。如今，多名分析人士指出，扣押人质的逻辑可能已经逆转：人质的存在非但不能保护加沙免遭攻击，反而给了内塔尼亚胡继续推进战争的借口。

“If Hamas said no, the war would have gone on — the bloodshed, the destruction and the killing would have gone on and on,” Abusada said. “So Hamas decided: Let’s just accept this offer and believe the guarantees that the war will not return.”

“如果哈马斯拒绝协议，战争就会持续——流血、破坏和杀戮将无休无止，”阿布萨达说。“因此哈马斯决定：接受这份协议，相信战争不会重启的承诺。”

The Trump Factor

特朗普的因素

Trump famously has little time or patience for traditional diplomacy. If the State Department’s approach to ceasefires and peace negotiations is to labor over maps and work through diplomatic channels, defining boundaries and anticipating loopholes, Trump negotiates the way he struck real estate deals in New York: in broad concepts, leaving the details to others.

众所周知，特朗普对传统外交缺乏耐心，不愿为此花费时间。若美国国务院推动停火与和平谈判的方式是反复推敲地图、通过外交渠道协商边界、预判漏洞，那么特朗普的谈判风格则如同他在纽约促成房地产交易的方式：先确立宏观概念，再将细节交由他人处理。

Administration officials say the result suggests that this should be Trump’s model for the future. “He pursued a very nontraditional diplomacy with people who were not 40-year diplomats, but people who brought a fresh perspective to it,” Vice President JD Vance said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “And, of course, the president was criticized for it. The diplomatic team was criticized for it.”

特朗普政府官员表示，此次成果表明，这应成为特朗普未来的外交模式。副总统万斯上周日在哥伦比亚广播公司《面向全国》(Face the Nation)节目中说：“他采用了非常非传统的外交方式，同他一起工作的不是有40年经验的外交官，而是能带来新视角的人。当然总统因此受到批评。整个外交团队都因此受到批评。”

And Trump signaled the importance of a deal by bringing Kushner back into the swirl of diplomacy, hoping that his business connections with Qatar and other players in the region could be leveraged to good advantage. It was Kushner who negotiated the Abraham Accords in the first term, in which Arab states recognized Israel — a huge step. Of course, those connections fuel Trump’s critics, who see a blurring of diplomacy and for-profit deals.

特朗普还通过让库什纳重返外交核心凸显协议的重要性——他希望库什纳与卡塔尔及该地区其他相关方的商业联系能发挥作用。库什纳在特朗普第一任期内促成了《亚伯拉罕协议》，推动阿拉伯国家承认以色列，这是历史性的一步。当然，这些联系也引发了特朗普批评者的质疑，他们认为这模糊了外交与营利性交易的界限。

But the Israeli attempt to kill Hamas negotiators in Qatar, dropping a bomb on their temporary residence, both angered Trump and awakened him. It gave the United States the opportunity to rally Arab states around the 20-point plan, even if they thought many of the details would not work.

而以色列试图击毙在卡塔尔的哈马斯谈判代表，轰炸他们的临时住所的行为既激怒了特朗普，也让他警醒。这一事件让美国有机会推动阿拉伯国家支持20点计划，即便这些国家认为计划中的许多细节不切实际。

And so when Trump called Netanyahu to the White House in September, following the opening of the U.N. General Assembly, the prime minister was in no position to resist him. He had to call the prime minister of Qatar and read an apology to him — while White House photographers recorded the moment. The message was clear: Netanyahu was now in a new world, where he had to heed some American mandates.

因此，在联合国大会开幕后，当特朗普于9月召内塔尼亚胡前往白宫时，这位以色列总理已无法拒绝。他不得不致电卡塔尔首相并宣读道歉声明——而白宫摄影师记录下了这一时刻。信号很明确：内塔尼亚胡如今身处全新格局，必须服从美国的部分指令。

Then Trump pressed the Israeli leader to sign on to his 20-point plan, with its ceasefire and the insertion of a “technocratic” temporary government in Gaza backed by an international stability force. While it fell short of Netanyahu’s maximalist demands, he had to agree to the document. He was both indebted to Trump and aware that provoking his capricious counterpart could lead to negative consequences for himself and for Israel.

随后，特朗普施压内塔尼亚胡签署他的20点计划，该计划包含停火内容，并在加沙成立由“技术官僚”组成的临时政府，由国际维和部队提供支持。尽管该计划未满足内塔尼亚胡的最高要求，但他不得不签署。他既欠特朗普人情，也清楚若激怒这位反复无常的对手，自己和以色列都可能面临负面后果。

He may have also been betting that Hamas would reject the deal, because it required the terrorist group to disarm and leave the territory.

或许内塔尼亚胡还曾押注哈马斯会拒绝该协议，因为协议要求这个恐怖组织解除武装并撤离该地区。

Hamas said “yes, but,” agreeing to the first terms — the hostage release in return for a prisoner swap — but insisting on more negotiations on the critical next steps. Trump ignored the “but,” and simply took the partial yes as full agreement.

哈马斯的回应是“同意，但有条件”，他们接受第一阶段条款——释放人质以换取囚犯交换——但坚持就关键的后续步骤进行更多谈判。而特朗普无视这个“但”字，直接将哈马斯的部分同意视为了完全认可。

Last month, People’s Daily, a Communist Party newspaper, published what looked like a rare opinion column by a foreigner, the basketball star LeBron James. In it, he praised basketball as a cultural bridge between countries. The problem: Mr. James never wrote it.

上月，中共党报《人民日报》刊发了一篇看似罕见的外国人署名评论文章，作者是篮球明星勒布朗·詹姆斯。文中他盛赞篮球是国家间的文化桥梁。但问题在于：詹姆斯从未写过这篇文章。

Mr. James had been talking to Chinese reporters while on a trip there, and the newspaper turned those comments into an essay with his name on it. Being depicted as the author of a piece in People’s Daily, the voice of the ruling party, is no small matter; it suggested that Mr. James was endorsing Beijing’s message at a time of deep tensions with Washington.

詹姆斯访华期间曾接受中国记者采访，《人民日报》将采访内容整理成文，并署上他的名字刊发。而在执政党喉舌《人民日报》发表署名文章绝非小事，这暗示着詹姆斯在中美关系紧张之际支持北京的信息。

For Adam Silver, the commissioner of the N.B.A., that crossed a line. “Taking words somebody said and then making it seem as a first-person Op-Ed,” Mr. Silver told The New York Times, in his first comments about the incident, “would not be appropriate.”

NBA总裁萧华(Adam Silver)认为这种做法越过了底线。他在首次就此事发声时向《纽约时报》表示：“截取他人言论，将其包装成第一人称评论文章，这种做法并不恰当。”

The backlash in America to what people thought was an opinion piece was swift. Conservative commentators said Mr. James was letting Beijing use his fame to whitewash the image of the authoritarian government. One website said the N.B.A. was “groveling to the communists.”

在美国，公众误以为这是詹姆斯主动撰写的评论文章，随即引发强烈反弹。保守派评论人士指责詹姆斯任由中国政府利用其名气，为威权政府形象“洗白”；一个网站称NBA“向共产党卑躬屈膝”。

The incident was only the latest reminder of the potential political minefield the league faces as it resumes play in China after a six-year absence.

这一事件再次提醒人们：在时隔六年后重返中国市场之际，NBA面临着潜在的政治雷区。

The Brooklyn Nets will play the Phoenix Suns in Macau on Sunday night, the second of two preseason games. The games are the result of a yearslong effort by the league — and by Patrick Dumont, a casino mogul turned team owner — to regain its footing in China, a hugely important market.

周日晚，布鲁克林篮网队与菲尼克斯太阳队在澳门上演对决，这是两场季前赛中的第二场。此次赛事是NBA联盟——以及从赌场大亨转型为球队老板的帕特里克·杜蒙——为重新进入中国这个极其重要的市场而多年努力的结果。

NBA周末重返中国，在澳门举行季前赛，该联盟正在体育与政治之间走钢丝。

China has its own reasons for welcoming back the N.B.A. The Chinese government has been struggling to breathe life into an economy where people have been holding back on spending.

中国对NBA的回归也有自己的考量。面对民众消费意愿低迷，中国政府正竭力为经济注入活力。

Beijing wants to use sports and international events to “boost overall consumption,” said Crystal Wang, an expert on Chinese sports with the consultancy Deloitte in Shanghai. “That is from the top.”

德勤上海办公室的中国体育业务专家克里斯塔·王（音）表示：“中国政府希望借助体育赛事及国际活动‘拉动整体消费’，这是自上而下的决策。”

According to state media, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping has a soft spot for basketball, having played pickup games while working as a local official in Hebei Province.

据官方媒体报道，中国领导人习近平对篮球情有独钟，在河北担任地方官员期间，曾多次参与业余篮球比赛。

Beijing hopes the league can showcase China as open and welcoming. The government has turned to athletes, scholars and influencers to promote “people to people” ties aimed at countering hostility from both sides of the political aisle in the United States.

中国政府希望通过这项赛事展现开放友好的国家形象。目前，政府正借助运动员、学者及网络红人推动“民间外交”，以应对美国两党对中国的敌意。

Xie Feng, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, for instance, cited what he described as Mr. James’s Op-Ed for People’s Daily, saying on X: “It’s heartening to see sports are bringing our people closer.”

例如，中国驻美大使谢锋在社交平台X上援引这篇他所谓詹姆斯为《人民日报》撰写的评论文章，称：“看到体育正在拉近我们两国人民的距离，令人欣慰。”

Basketball is wildly popular in China. That is what makes N.B.A. stars so valuable there — but it also forces the players to walk a razor-thin line between sports and politics.

篮球在中国拥有极高人气，这使得NBA球星在中国极具商业价值，但同时也迫使球员在体育与政治之间小心翼翼地走钢丝。

It is a line the league has stumbled over before. In 2019, Daryl Morey, then the general manager of the Houston Rockets, tweeted support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests. That and the league’s refusal to punish Mr. Morey shut the N.B.A. out of China for years, costing the league more than $300 million in revenue.

NBA此前曾在这个问题上栽过跟头。2019年，时任休斯顿火箭队总经理的达里尔·莫雷发推支持香港民主抗议活动，加之联盟拒绝处罚莫雷，导致NBA被中国市场封杀数年，损失逾3亿美元收入。

But N.B.A. athletes who have traveled to China after the incident have found a lucrative market.

但事件发生后，前往中国的NBA球员发现这里仍是利润丰厚的市场。

The Los Angeles Clippers star James Harden, who has criticized Mr. Morey, praised China and even hinted at moving there, has been rewarded by Chinese fans. In 2023, he sold 10,000 bottles of wine from his personal label on a Chinese livestream in seconds.

洛杉矶快船队球星詹姆斯·哈登曾公开批评莫雷，他不仅盛赞中国，甚至暗示考虑移居中国，这番表态也为他赢得了中国球迷的支持。2023年，他在中国直播平台销售个人品牌葡萄酒时，几秒钟就售出了1万瓶。

When Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors toured western China in August, he was greeted by an enormous drone show, sponsored by a local tourism board, that depicted him high-fiving a panda.

今年8月，金州勇士队的斯蒂芬·库里赴中国西部巡访时，当地旅游部门为其举办了盛大的无人机表演，无人机编队在空中呈现出他与熊猫击掌的画面。

Players know to steer clear of politics, said Terry Rhoads, a Shanghai-based sports consultant who helped build a market for the N.B.A. in China while working for Nike. “Every single N.B.A. player that comes out to China is being briefed on, ‘Hey, we’re out there to have fun. We’re out there to get the kids loving basketball.’”

曾在任职耐克期间助力NBA在中国开拓市场的上海体育行业顾问陆海瑞(Terry Rhoads)表示：“球员们都清楚要避开政治话题。每一位来中国的NBA球员都会被告知：‘嘿，我们来这里是为了享受乐趣，是为了让孩子们爱上篮球。’”

当斯蒂芬·库里8月造访中国重庆时，当地政府用无人机表演迎接他，画面中他与熊猫击掌相庆。这显示出官员们将明星运动员视为政治使者。

Mr. Silver said that China put no conditions on speech ahead of the N.B.A. resuming play. But the stakes of offending China are clear.

萧华称，中国方面并未在NBA复赛前附加任何言论限制条件。但得罪中国的风险显而易见。

And they cut both ways: Players also face criticism in the United States if they seem too cozy with Beijing — as the LeBron James episode with People’s Daily showed.

而且这种风险是双向的：正如詹姆斯《人民日报》事件所显示的，若球员看似与中国政府关系过密，也会在美国国内招致批评。

Adam Mendelsohn, an adviser to Mr. James, sought to downplay that incident, saying that the media had “incorrectly characterized” the piece as an Op-Ed that he had written.

詹姆斯的顾问亚当·门德尔松试图淡化此次事件影响，称媒体将这篇文章“错误定性”为詹姆斯撰写的评论专栏。

But People’s Daily had described the player as the author of the essay, and promoted it on its official social media account with a post titled: “LeBron James Writes in People’s Daily.”

但《人民日报》当时明确将詹姆斯标注为文章作者，并在其官方社交账号上以“勒布朗·詹姆斯在《人民日报》撰文”推广该内容。

Mr. James had also been accused of pandering to China in 2019 when he criticized Mr. Morey over the tweet.

詹姆斯在2019年就曾因批评莫雷的推文被指责“讨好中国”。

“So many people could have been harmed not only financially, physically, emotionally, spiritually,” he said at the time. “Yes, we do have freedom of speech, but there can be a lot of negative that comes with that, too.”

他当时表示：“太多人可能会因此受到伤害，不仅是经济层面，还包括身体、情感和精神层面。没错，我们确实拥有言论自由，但这种自由也可能带来诸多负面影响。”

As the trade war between the United States and China kicked back into high gear after a period of tentative détente, it was clear just how vast the gulf of misunderstanding between the two superpowers had become.

美中贸易战在经历一段暂歇后再度升温，这清楚地表明，两个超级大国之间的误解鸿沟是多么巨大。

President Trump said that he had been blindsided by China’s new controls on rare earth metals and products made from them, announced earlier in the week, amid what he had called a “very good” relationship in recent months. Chinese commentators insisted that Beijing was only responding to new attacks from the United States, and that Washington was the provocateur, because it had ramped up technological restrictions on China while professing good will.

特朗普总统表示，他对中国上周宣布的对稀土金属及其制品新的出口管制措施感到措手不及，他认为近几个月来两国关系“非常好”。中国的评论人士坚称，北京只不过是在回应美国的新攻势，华盛顿才是始作俑者，因为美国政府在宣称善意的同时加大了对中国的技术限制。

Both sides also seemed convinced that they had the advantage and that the other side had overplayed its hand.

双方也似乎坚信自己占据优势，对方高估了自己的筹码。

The blame game continued on Saturday, as China woke up to Mr. Trump’s announcement that he would impose new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports from Nov. 1. The Chinese government on Sunday accused the United States of double standards, saying its rare earth export controls were normal, and that it was America that had long abused such controls and adopted discriminatory practices against China in the name of national security.

特朗普宣布将从11月1日起对中国出口美国的产品加征100%关税，中国在周六获知这个消息后继续责怪美国。中国政府周日指责美国奉行双重标准，称中国的稀土出口管制是正当做法，美国则长期以来滥用出口管制，以国家安全的名义对中国采取歧视性做法。

On the threat of more tariffs, the Commerce Ministry said the two sides should resolve issues through talks, but China would take measures in response if the United States “insists on its own course.”

关于进一步加征关税的威胁，中国商务部表示，双方应该通过谈判来解决问题，但如果美国“一意孤行”，中国将采取相应措施。

“China’s position on a tariff war is consistent: We do not want one, but we are not afraid of one either,” the ministry said in a statement.

“对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打，”商务部在一份声明中表示。

President Trump’s tariff threat highlighted the huge stakes involved in having control over the raw materials and technologies, such as rare earth metals and batteries, that will power the next generation of industry.

特朗普的关税威胁凸显了控制稀土金属和电池等原材料和技术所涉及的巨大利害关系，这些原材料和技术将驱动下一代的工业。

江西龙南郊外的一个重稀土金属矿，摄于今年4月。特朗普说，他对中国关于稀土金属及其制品宣布的新出口管制感到措手不及。

But if neither side backs down, the new hostilities seem all but certain to spill beyond trade. They could also affect other areas that the two countries had been hoping to make headway on in their relationship, such as military-to-military communication and the governance of artificial intelligence.

但如果双方都拒绝让步，新的对抗几乎肯定会波及到贸易以外的领域。这种对抗可能影响到两国一直希望在双边关系上取得进展的其他领域，例如军队之间的沟通和人工智能的管理。

“The situation is quite surprising, considering that there have already been four rounds of China-U.S. trade negotiations,” Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, said in an interview, referring to meetings between officials since May that had taken place in Geneva, London, Stockholm and Madrid.

“考虑到中美贸易谈判已经进行了四轮，目前的情况相当出人意料，”南京大学国际关系学院教授朱锋在接受采访时说，他指的是两国官员自今年5月以来在日内瓦、伦敦、斯德哥尔摩，以及马德里的会晤。

President Trump said last month that he had also expected to meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in person in South Korea this month. But on Friday he said, “Now there seems to be no reason to do so.”

特朗普上个月表示，他曾预计本月在韩国与中国国家主席习近平举行面对面的会晤。但他上周五说，“现在看来没有理由见面。”

“This is a very stark reminder that the fragility in China-U.S. relations is deepening,” Professor Zhu said.

“这非常清楚地提醒着我们，中美关系的脆弱性正在加剧，”朱锋说。

The new trade tensions showed that the United States and China defined the rivalry between them in fundamentally different ways. To Mr. Trump, issues such as trade and technology could be addressed separately — that is, the United States expects to be able to continue to escalate its technology restrictions on China while simultaneously seeking a big trade deal between the countries.

新一轮的贸易紧张局势表明，美中对两国间竞争的定义存在根本性分歧。对特朗普来说，贸易与技术等问题可以分开来处理，也就是说，美国认为它在持续升级对华技术限制的同时，又能与中国达成一项重大的贸易协议。

But to China, trade and technology are part of what Beijing perceives as an all-around effort by the United States to suppress China.

但对中国来说，贸易战和技术限制是中国政府认为的美国全方位打压中国努力的一部分。

“If the trade talks fail, I’m deeply concerned that the all-fronts confrontation between the two sides will escalate,” Professor Zhu said.

“如果贸易谈判失败的话，我极为担心双方的全面对抗将升级，”朱锋说。

While Mr. Trump, in a post on Truth Social, accused China of introducing its rare earths controls “out of nowhere,” Chinese commentators maintained that the escalation was Washington’s fault.

特朗普在“真相社交”的一则贴文中指责中国“突然”对稀土出口采取管制措施，中国的评论人士却坚持认为，贸易战升级是华盛顿的错。

特朗普和中国最高领导人习近平2019年在日本大阪。两位领导人曾预计本月在韩国会面，但特朗普已在周五表示，“现在看来没有理由见面。”

“What is Trump feeling wronged about?” Hu Xijin, the influential former editor of Global Times, a Communist Party-controlled newspaper, wrote on Weibo, a social media platform. “What is he angry about? He should first understand what the U.S. has done to China!”

“特朗普他委屈什么？愤怒什么？”胡锡进在社交媒体平台微博上写道，他曾任中共控制的报纸《环球时报》的总编辑，颇有影响力。“他应该先搞清楚美国都对中国做了什么事情！”

Mr. Hu suggested that China’s rare earth controls were merely a response to new measures from the United States targeting China, including expanding the list of Chinese companies to which it restricts exports. He said the country had grown more confident in its ability to endure intense pressure tactics from Washington.

胡锡进认为，中国对稀土进行出口管制只不过是在回应美国针对中国的新限制措施，包括扩大受美国出口限制的中国企业的名单。他说，中国对于承受华盛顿的强力施压战术有更大的信心。

“Chinese society is really not afraid of the United States now, and high U.S. tariffs and other levers have lost their deterrent effect on China,” he said by text message.

“中国社会现在真的不怕美国了，美国的高额关税和其他手段已经失去了对中国的威慑力，”他在发给记者的短信中写道。

Still, the sweep of China’s new rare earths controls struck many observers as a dramatic escalation. They prohibit any shipments of critical materials to producers of military equipment in Europe and the United State and bar the transfer out of China of equipment or information that would help other countries establish their own production.

尽管如此，中国新出台的稀土出口管制措施范围之广令许多观察人士视其为一个令人吃惊的升级。新规禁止将关键材料出口到欧美军事装备生产商，并禁止将有助于其他国家自主生产这种材料的设备或信息转移出中国。

China’s boldness may have stemmed from an assessment that Mr. Trump is in a weak position. Mr. Trump’s trade negotiators proved willing earlier this summer to strike compromises on tariffs, and the president has expressed eagerness to visit China. China’s boycott of soybean purchases from the United States has badly hurt American farmers.

中国的强硬也许出于对特朗普处于弱势地位的评估。特朗普的贸易谈判代表曾在今年夏初表现出愿意在关税问题上妥协，总统本人也表达了迫切希望访问中国的意愿。中国抵制购买美国大豆的做法已严重损害了美国农民的利益。

American domestic politics are in turmoil, with the government shut down. And despite promises by the United States to wean itself off its reliance on China for rare earth metals, that prospect remains distant.

美国的国内政治正陷入混乱，政府停摆。尽管美国放话要摆脱对中国稀土金属的依赖，但这个前景仍然遥不可及。

China, on the other hand, is riding high from a large-scale military parade last month, at which it showcased advanced new weaponry and reaffirmed its ties with Russia and North Korea.

另一方面，中国则信心十足，它刚在上个月举行了一场盛大的阅兵式，期间展示了先进的新武器，并重申了与俄罗斯和朝鲜的关系。

“China certainly knew Trump would react strongly, and it didn’t underestimate him,” said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “But there are several areas where China has the upper hand.”

“中国当然知道特朗普会做出强烈反应，中国没有低估他，”北京人民大学国际关系教授王义桅说。“但中国在一些领域有优势。”

China may be hoping to use its leverage to push Mr. Trump toward a bigger agreement on other issues in the U.S.-China relationship, beyond just trade, he said.

他表示，中国也许希望利用这些筹码，推动特朗普在中美关系的其他问题上达成更全面的协议，而不只是贸易协议。

Beijing also wants the Trump administration to make concessions on its support for Taiwan, the island democracy Beijing claims as its territory, as well as on the controls it has imposed on advanced semiconductor chips, which China needs for the development of artificial intelligence, among other ambitions.

中国政府还希望特朗普政府在支持台湾上做出让步——中国声称台湾是其领土，并在限制先进半导体芯片的出口上做出让步，中国需要这些芯片，以实现发展人工智能等目标。

宁波一条汽车装配线上的工人正在把电池安装到电动汽车底架上，摄于今年3月。特朗普的关税威胁凸显了控制稀土金属和电池等原材料和技术所涉及的巨大利害关系，这些原材料和技术将驱动下一代的工业。

China’s tough measures may also be a signal to the domestic audience to have confidence, despite the country’s economic slowdown and the housing market crash. And it may be a message to other countries and regions, including the European Union, that have come under pressure from Washington to choose sides between the two superpowers that they should not underestimate China.

中国的强硬措施或许也是向国内民众发出的信号，尽管面临经济放缓和房地产市场崩溃，但仍应对国家保持信心。同时，这也可能是向其他国家和地区（包括欧盟）传递它们不应低估中国的信息，这些国家和地区已受到美国要求它们在两个超级大国之间选边站队的压力。

“This tells you that China is very confident and powerful,” Professor Wang said. “Don’t be afraid. Don’t sacrifice China to curry favor with the United States.”

“这是在向外界表明，中国非常自信而且有实力，”王义桅说。“别害怕。不要为了讨好美国而牺牲中国。”

But some experts warned that Beijing had overplayed its hand and that officials had miscalculated how aggressively Mr. Trump would respond.

但有专家警告称，北京出招过猛，政府官员对特朗普会发起的强烈反击估计不足。

Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said Beijing had cultivated a “dangerous new habit” of underestimating the American willingness and capability to retaliate.

华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示，中国政府已养成了一个“危险的新习惯”，即低估美国的报复意愿和能力。

China may have assumed that a summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi was locked in and that the U.S. was eager for a deal. The Trump administration backed down after first imposing additional tariffs in April of as much as 145 percent, leaving an extra tariff of 30 percent while China has retained an extra tariff of 10 percent on American goods.

中国也许认为，特朗普与习近平的峰会已成定局，美国渴望达成贸易协议。特朗普政府今年4月宣布对中国商品征收高达145%的关税后做出了让步，只保留了30%的额外关税，中国则保留了对美国商品征收的10%额外关税。

“Where the U.S. was showing good will, China saw a manifestation of American weaknesses,” Dr. Sun wrote in an email.

“中国在美国展现的诚意中看到的是美国软弱，”孙韵在一封电子邮件中写道。

Professor Zhu, of Nanjing University, acknowledged that even as China moved to defend its interests, it should be cautious about Mr. Trump’s unpredictability.

南京大学的朱锋承认，在中国采取行动捍卫自身利益的同时，也应该对特朗普的不可预测性保持警惕。

“If the trade war escalates further, that is definitely not in China’s interests,” he said.

“如果贸易战进一步升级，那肯定不符合中国的利益，”他说。

Indeed, should Mr. Trump’s additional 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods take effect, they could batter the economy even more. Exports to the United States — either directly or through countries like Vietnam and Mexico — have helped keep the economy afloat.

的确，如果特朗普对中国商品加征100%关税的命令生效，中国经济会受到更沉重的打击。中国对美国的出口——无论是直接出口还是通过越南和墨西哥等国转口——已帮助维持中国经济不再下沉。

The authorities in China have detained the pastor of one of the country’s most prominent underground churches, along with dozens of other people affiliated with his church, according to the pastor’s family and members of the church, prompting worries about a renewed crackdown on religion.

据牧师的家人和教会成员称，中国有关部门拘留了中国最知名地下教会之一的牧师，以及数十名与该教会有关联的人，引发人们对新一轮宗教镇压的担忧。

The pastor, Jin Mingri, who also goes by the name Ezra, founded Beijing Zion Church in 2007. It grew into one of the country’s largest unofficial congregations, with several satellite campuses and over 1,000 people attending its weekend services.

这位牧师名叫金明日，又名以斯拉，他在2007年创立了北京锡安教会。该教会发展成为中国最大的非官方教会之一，拥有多个分堂，周末礼拜的人数超过千人。

Mr. Jin, 56, was detained on Friday at his home in the city of Beihai in Guangxi Province, according to his daughter, Grace Jin, who lives in the United States. Around the same time, nearly 30 other Zion Church pastors or workers were taken into custody or went missing around the country, including in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities, she said.

现年56岁的金明日周五在其广西北海市的家中被拘留，其旅居美国的女儿格蕾丝·金证实了这一消息。她还说，大约在同一时间，全国范围内——包括北京、上海、深圳等城市——近30名锡安教会的牧师或工作人员被拘留或失踪。

Calls to the Beihai police rang unanswered on Sunday.

周日，拨打给北海警方的电话无人接听。

Ms. Jin said her family had not been able to reach her father but that they had heard from other church members, some of whom were released after their initial detentions, that he was being accused of illegal dissemination of religious information.

格蕾丝·金说，她的家人无法与父亲取得联系，但他们从其他教会成员——其中一些人在最初被拘留后已被释放——那里得知，金明日被指控非法传播宗教信息。

The Chinese Constitution guarantees freedom of religion, but in practice, the Chinese Communist Party permits only tightly controlled, state-approved congregations to operate openly. Still, it is estimated that tens of millions of Chinese Christians worship in underground churches, also called house churches.

中国宪法保障宗教信仰自由，但实际上，中国共产党只允许受到严格控制、经国家批准的教会公开活动。尽管如此，据估计仍有数千万中国基督徒在也被称为家庭教会的地下教会礼拜。

Under China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, persecution of those unofficial congregations has increased, alongside a more general crackdown on religion in general, especially Islam. In 2018, a nationwide crackdown led to the closure of several prominent house churches, including Beijing Zion. The government regularly encourages ordinary Chinese to report unsanctioned religious gatherings, which it sometimes calls cults, to the police.

在中国最高领导人习近平治下，对这些非官方教会的迫害有所增加，同时对宗教的全面打压也在加强，尤其是对伊斯兰教。2018年，一场全国性的打压行动导致包括北京锡安教会在内的几座知名家庭教会关闭。政府经常鼓励普通中国人向警方举报未经批准的宗教聚会，政府有时将这些聚会称为邪教。

After 2018, Mr. Jin was subjected to frequent surveillance and harassment, his daughter said, and forced to leave Beijing. He was also barred from leaving China to visit his family members, who left the country in 2018. Ms. Jin, her mother and her two younger brothers now live in the United States.

格蕾丝·金称，2018年之后，金明日经常受到监视和骚扰，被迫离开北京。他还被禁止离开中国去看望2018年移居海外的家人。格蕾丝·金、她的母亲和两个弟弟现在都住在美国。

But Mr. Jin continued to lead Zion by convening smaller, more scattered gatherings, as well as sharing videos of sermons online, Ms. Jin said. During the coronavirus pandemic, when many other churches stopped operating, Zion grew rapidly, drawing audiences of sometimes 10,000 people across the country on platforms including Zoom, YouTube and WeChat, Ms. Jin said.

但通过召集规模更小、更分散的聚会以及在网上分享布道视频，金明日继续领导锡安教会，格蕾丝·金说。她表示，在新冠疫情期间，当许多其他教会停止活动时，锡安教会迅速发展，通过Zoom、YouTube和微信等平台，有时在全国范围内能吸引上万受众。

In recent months, though, many at Zion began to worry that another crackdown was imminent. Surveillance on Mr. Jin seemed to have ramped up, Ms. Jin said. In September, the government issued new regulations limiting religious activity online to officially registered channels.

不过，格蕾丝·金称，最近几个月，锡安教会的许多人开始担心新一轮打压即将来临。对金明日的监视似乎加强了。9月，政府发布了新的规定，将网上宗教活动限制在官方注册的渠道。

Mr. Jin had also suggested to the state security officers monitoring him that he might retire from Zion so that he could join his family, Ms. Jin said. But she said the officers refused to let him leave.

她表示，金明日还曾向监视他的国家安全人员表示，他可能从锡安教会退休，以便与家人团聚，但她说，这些人拒绝让他离开。

“After this kind of posturing, it seemed like something big was going to happen again,” Ms. Jin said. “We just didn’t know when or to what extent. But I also feel like my dad is always the optimist.”

她说：“在这种态势下，似乎又要出大事了，我们只是不知道什么时候发生以及程度如何。但我也觉得我父亲总是很乐观。”

She added, “He is sort of like, ‘Well I can’t live in fear every day, so I’m just going to continue on with what I need to do.’”

她还表示：“他的意思是，‘嗯，我不能每天都生活在恐惧中，所以我要继续做我需要做的事情。’”

After news of Mr. Jin’s arrest emerged, Mike Pence, the former vice president, called on the Chinese government to release him, in a post on X.

金明日被捕的消息传出后，前副总统迈克·彭斯在X上发帖，呼吁中国政府释放他。

Corey Jackson, the founder of Luke Alliance, a U.S.-based group that advocates for persecuted Christians in China, said that the detentions were “without a doubt” the biggest crackdown on Christianity in China since 2018.

总部位于美国、为中国受迫害基督徒发声的组织“路加联盟”的创始人科里·杰克逊称，这些拘留“毫无疑问”是自2018年以来对中国基督教最大规模的打压。

“If this is the first move, then it could be far worse down the line,” he said. But he also said he expected Chinese Christians to keep trying to gather.

他说：“如果这是第一步，那么接下来可能更糟糕。”但他也表示，他预计中国基督徒会继续试图聚会。

“The Chinese church is probably stronger than the world realizes, maybe stronger than the Communist Party realizes,” he said. “And I think that’s part of the problem the Communist Party is facing.”

他说：“中国教会可能比世界意识到的更强大，也许比共产党意识到的更强大。我认为这是共产党面临的部分问题。”

In China, the longest ultrahigh-voltage power line stretches more than 2,000 miles from the far northwest to the populous southeast — the equivalent of transmitting electricity from Idaho to New York City.

在中国，最长的特高压输电线路从西北偏远地区延伸至人口密集的东南沿海，全长超3200公里，相当于从爱达荷州向纽约市输送电力。

The power line starts in a remote desert in northwest China, where vast arrays of solar panels and wind turbines generate electricity on a monumental scale. It snakes southeast, following an ancient river between mountain ranges before reaching Anhui Province near Shanghai, home to 61 million people and some of China’s most successful electric car and robot manufacturers.

这条线路始于中国西北的偏远沙漠——那里铺设着大规模光伏阵列与风力涡轮机，发电量惊人。线路向东南蜿蜒，沿着山脉间的古老河道延伸，最终抵达上海附近、有6100万人口安徽省，那里也是中国多家顶尖电动汽车与机器人制造商的所在地。

That’s a single power line. China has 41 others. Each is capable of carrying more electricity than any utility transmission line in the United States. That’s partly because China is using technology that makes its lines far more efficient than almost anywhere else in the world. The feat is owed to China’s ambitious national energy policies and the fact that few residents along the path of these lines dare object — even though the lines emit static electricity that local people said they could feel when holding a metal fishing pole.

这仅仅是其中一条输电线路。目前中国已建成41条类似线路，每条的输电容量均超过美国任何一条输电线路。部分原因在于中国采用的技术使其线路效率远超全球绝大多数地区。这一成就的背后，既得益于中国雄心勃勃的国家能源政策，也是因为线路途经区域的民众极少敢于反对——尽管当地居民表示，手持金属鱼竿时能感受到线路产生的静电。

“As long as you don’t fish directly underneath the wires and keep the fishing line from getting tangled in the wires, it’s basically fine,” Shu Jie, an air-conditioning repairman, said matter-of-factly, showing off a six-inch fish he had just caught.

“只要不在下面钓，鱼线不要挂在杆上，基本上没事，”空调维修工舒杰（音）一边展示他刚钓到的一条大约15厘米长的鱼，一边淡定地说。

China’s aggressive embrace of clean energy technologies, at a faster pace than even its own government expected or planned, has left it with an unquenchable thirst for electricity. Half the country’s new cars are battery-powered, and the 30,000 miles of high-speed rail lines run on electricity. Wind and solar energy provided over a quarter of China’s power in April, a milestone that few other countries can brag about.

 中国大力推广清洁能源技术，速度甚至超出了政府自身的预期与规划，这使得中国对电力的需求变得无法遏制。中国新增汽车中半数为新能源汽车，约4.8万公里的高速铁路网也全部依靠电力驱动。今年4月，风电与光伏发电量占中国总发电量的比例已超四分之一，这一里程碑式成就全球鲜有国家能够企及。

But much of that clean energy is produced in the country’s sunny, windy western and northern regions, far from most of its people and factories. More than 90 percent of China’s 1.4 billion people live in the east, where cloudy days, windless nights and sluggish rivers limit the potential for clean energy. So to move the electricity to where it is needed most, China is urgently upgrading its power grid.

然而，这些清洁能源大部分产自光照充足、风力强劲的西部与北部地区，与人口密集、工业集中的区域相距遥远。中国14亿人口中超90%居住在东部，那里白天多云、夜间风力微弱、河流平缓，清洁能源开发潜力有限。因此，为将电力输送至需求最旺盛的地区，中国在急切地推进电网升级。

Beijing’s central planners, having underestimated the country’s swift adoption of solar and wind energy, are building the world’s first nationwide grid of ultrahigh-voltage power transmission lines.

中国的中央规划部门此前低估了国内风电、光伏产业的发展速度，如今正着手建设全球首个覆盖全国的特高压输电网络。

Beijing’s expansion of its power grid contrasts sharply with President Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill” approach of doubling down on fossil fuels and rolling back federal programs to spur greater use of clean energy.

 中国的电网扩张计划，与特朗普总统推行的“钻吧，宝贝，钻吧”(Drill, baby, drill)政策形成鲜明对比——后者主张增加化石能源开采，并且撤销了联邦层面推动清洁能源应用的相关项目。

舒杰在特高压线路附近用长金属鱼竿钓鱼时能感受到静电，他表示会尽量避开线路正下方。“基本上没事，”他说。

In July, the Energy Department terminated its commitment to provide a $4.9 billion loan guarantee for construction of the Grain Belt Express power line to take wind power from Kansas to cities in Illinois and Indiana. That 800-mile ultrahigh-voltage line, which would have covered a shorter distance than dozens of lines already built in China, ran into criticism from rural landowners and Republican lawmakers.

 7月，能源部终止了为“谷物带快线”输电线路提供49亿美元贷款担保的承诺。该线路计划将堪萨斯州的风电输送至伊利诺伊州与印第安纳州的城市。这条特高压输电线路全长约1200公里，短于中国建成的数十条特高压线路，遭到农村土地所有者与共和党议员的批评。

Even before Mr. Trump took office, other renewable energy projects in the United States had to wait as long as 17 years for permits to be approved for transmission lines running a few hundred miles.

事实上，在特朗普就职前，美国其他可再生能源项目中，仅数百公里的输电线路就曾不得不面临长达17年的审批流程。

Many of China’s ultrahigh-voltage lines use direct current technology, which allows them to carry electricity for long distances with barely any of the transmission losses that affect most high-power lines in other countries.

中国多条特高压线路采用直流输电技术，这种技术能实现电力的远距离传输，且几乎不存在其他国家多数高压线路面临的传输损耗问题。

China’s more efficient power lines have broad consequences for the global race against climate change. They will help determine how quickly China can reduce its world-leading use of coal, a stain on the country’s clean energy track record. China uses as much coal as the entire rest of the world, and emits more greenhouse gases than the United States and the European Union combined.

 中国效率更高的输电线路对全球应对气候变化的努力具有深远影响。这些线路将在很大程度上决定中国能否加快减少其全球领先的煤炭使用量——这一直是中国清洁能源发展历程中的污点。中国的煤炭消耗量相当于全球其他国家的总和，温室气体排放量超过美国与欧盟的排放量之和。

The more advanced power grid is starting to address a central problem facing China’s energy planners. In its western regions, where the weather is favorable for solar, wind and hydroelectric power, China produces more renewable energy than it can use.

更先进的电网正着手解决中国能源规划者面临的核心难题：西部地区气候条件适宜发展光伏、风电与水电，可再生能源发电量已超出本地需求。

Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, set a goal in 2020 of tripling the country’s capacity to generate wind and solar energy by 2030. The country reached that mark last year — six years ahead of schedule.

中国最高领导人习近平于2020年提出目标：要求到2030年将风电和太阳能发电装机容量提升至当时的三倍。而中国已于去年提前六年达成这一目标。

徐冲村村民。这个村庄靠近全球最长、输电容量最大的特高压线路终点区域。

The country’s government-owned electricity transmission giant, State Grid, was caught unprepared.

中国国有电力传输巨头国家电网对此准备不足。

“State Grid is good at building things, but not six years ahead,” said David Fishman, an electricity consultant in Shanghai.

“国家电网擅长建设项目，但没料到会提前六年达标，”上海的电力行业顾问余德伟(David Fishman)表示。

In some recent months, a tenth of China’s wind and solar capacity has gone unused partly because the grid was unable to move all the power generated.

近几个月来，中国约十分之一的风电、光伏装机容量出现闲置，部分原因是电网无法完全输送所发电力。

“To improve the power system’s ability to absorb new energy, we must accelerate the construction of power grid projects supporting new energy,” Du Zhongming, electricity director of the National Energy Administration in China, said at a news conference last year.

“为提升电力系统对新能源消纳的能力，要加快推进新能源配套电网项目，”中国国家能源局电力司司长杜忠明在去年的新闻发布会上表示。

China already consumes twice as much electricity as the United States. By 2050, China plans to triple its count of ultrahigh-voltage routes.

中国当前的电力消耗量已是美国的两倍。到2050年，中国计划将特高压线路数量再增加两倍。

The most recent public Chinese data, from the end of 2024, showed 19 lines transmitting power at 800 kilovolts. Another 22 lines operated at 1,000 kilovolts. One of them, the behemoth terminating in Guquan, transmits enough electricity at 1,100 kilovolts to power more than seven million American households or 40 million to 50 million Chinese households.

2024年底中国最新公开数据显示，全国已有19条800千伏特高压线路投入运行，另有22条1000千伏线路。其中，一条终点位于泉港的特高压线路以1100千伏电压运行，输电容量可满足超700万户美国家庭，或4000万至5000万户中国家庭的用电需求。

To put the scale of China’s power grid build out in perspective, consider that the United States has a handful of 765-kilovolt lines and a few running at 500 kilovolts or less, according to the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit research group. The 765-kilovolt lines together total about 2,000 miles — the length of a single line across China.

若要更直观地理解中国电网建设规模，不妨参考以下数据：据非营利研究机构美国电力科学研究院统计，美国目前仅有少数几条765千伏线路，其余多为500千伏及以下电压等级线路；所有765千伏线路总长度约3200公里，仅相当于中国一条特高压线路的长度。

The Soviet Union built a power line in Central Asia that was designed to operate at 1,150 kilovolts. But it used less powerful equipment and has not run at full tilt for decades.

苏联曾在中亚地区建设过一条设计电压为1150千伏的输电线路，但该线路采用的设备功率较低，且数十年来从未满负荷运行。

在中国中南部的古泉镇（特高压线路终点附近），一片茶园位于该特高压线路下方。

The development of China’s ultrahigh-voltage lines was given a push in 2009, during the global financial crisis. The central government approved enormous investments in their construction to create jobs and head off an economic slowdown. China’s leaders staked ambitious plans for electric vehicles and high-speed rail lines around the same time.

2009年全球金融危机期间，中国特高压线路建设获得推动。中央政府批准巨额投资用于特高压项目建设，以创造就业岗位、缓解经济下行压力。与此同时，中国领导人还制定了发展电动汽车与高速铁路的宏大规划。

In March 2011, the construction of ultrahigh-voltage lines gained further momentum from the partial meltdown of three nuclear reactors after an earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima, Japan. Beijing delayed many prospective nuclear reactors, which had been planned near cities, and doubled down on transmission lines from remote areas.

2011年3月，日本福岛地震引发海啸，导致三座核反应堆发生部分熔毁，这一事件进一步推动了中国特高压线路建设。中国政府推迟了多个原计划在城市周边建设的核电项目，加紧建设从偏远地区输送电力的特高压线路。

Construction of the power lines has helped China reduce its emissions of toxic air pollution and greenhouse gases. A University of Chicago analysis of satellite data, released in August, found that air pollution in China had plunged 41 percent since 2014. That added almost two years to the country’s average life expectancy.

特高压线路建设有助于中国减少有毒空气污染物与温室气体排放。芝加哥大学8月发布的卫星数据分析显示，2014年以来，中国空气质量污染程度下降41%，这使得中国人口平均预期寿命延长了近两年。

Beijing, once notorious for smog, mostly stopped burning coal for electricity in 2020 and now relies partly on wind power delivered from hundreds of miles away.

曾因雾霾问题闻名的北京已于2020年基本停止使用煤炭发电，目前部分电力来自数百公里外输送的风电。

China’s ultrahigh-voltage network has helped the country limit its dependence on imported oil and natural gas, but it has also created new vulnerabilities. Much of northwestern China, where many of the lines are being built, is mountainous. As a result, lines had to be closely bunched as they hug a single, flood-prone tributary of the Yellow River that passes between earthquake-prone mountain ranges from Dunhuang to Lanzhou in Gansu Province.

中国特高压网络有助于降低国家对进口石油与天然气的依赖，但也带来了新的脆弱性。中国西北部多为山区，也是特高压线路的主要建设区域之一。因此，这些线路不得不密集排列，沿着黄河一条易发洪水的支流铺设，这条支流在甘肃省敦煌至兰州的地震多发山区之间蜿蜒流淌。

For decades, countries have talked about building power lines similar to China’s. They have found it difficult to persuade people living along the routes to accept any high-power lines, much less ultrahigh-voltage lines.

数十年来，多国都曾探讨建设类似中国的输电线路，要让沿线居民接受任何高压输电线都已十分困难，更不用说超高压线路了。

China can build faster because of its top-down industrial planning, government control of information and intolerance for public dissent.

中国之所以能快速推进特高压建设，得益于自上而下的产业规划、政府对信息的管控，以及对公众异议的零容忍。

一块警示村民禁止在鱼塘钓鱼的牌子，上面有一名触电烧伤者的照片。

Some villagers in Anhui Province living near China’s longest ultrahigh-voltage line said they had reservations about the line, although they did not try to stop its construction.

安徽省部分居住在最长特高压线路附近的村民表示，尽管他们对线路存在顾虑，但并未试图阻止建设。

The line carries mostly solar and wind energy, as well as some coal-fired power, from the Gurbantünggüt Desert in Xinjiang. It helps supply electricity to big eastern Chinese cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing.

这条线路主要输送来自新疆古尔班通古特沙漠的风电、光伏电力，以及部分燃煤电力，为上海、杭州、南京等中国东部大城市供电。

Xu Shicai, a farm manager in Xuchong, a village next to lines that pass within 30 yards of homes, expressed concern.

许士才（音）是徐冲村的农场管理者，该村部分房屋距离输电线路不足30米。他表达了自己的担忧。

“When you hold an umbrella in the rain, sparks will fly from it, and you’ll feel numb,” he said. “When fishing, it’s hard to hold the pole under the wires, as your hands feel very numb.”

“下雨的时候打雨伞，那个伞冒火星，人感觉麻麻的。钓鱼的时候，你在那个底下，觉得钓鱼杆拿不住，很麻的。”

The village’s small fish pond lies directly under the power lines. A “no fishing” sign has a cartoon of a skeleton being electrocuted and a graphic photo of a badly burned man who was apparently electrocuted. But Mr. Xu and other residents said that did not stop many villagers from fishing because the pond was so close by.

村里的小鱼塘恰好位于输电线路正下方，一块禁止钓鱼的警示牌上画着骷髅触电的卡通图案，并配有显然是触电导致的重度烧伤者的真实照片。但许士才与其他村民表示，由于鱼塘离家近，很多村民仍会在此钓鱼。

Mr. Xu said he accepted the power line because it was an important national project, but he worried it might scare off visitors. “I’m used to it now,” he said. “But honestly, we don’t want more lines built here.”

许士才表示，他接受这条线路的存在，因为这是重要的国家工程，但担心线路会吓跑游客。“现在习惯了，”他说。“建成之后，说真的我们也不希望他再建。”

The Chinese government announced on Thursday that it was escalating its curbs on exports of rare earth metals, as Beijing claims broader jurisdiction over the global manufacture of semiconductors and other technology.

中国政府周四宣布，将加强对稀土金属的出口管制措施，此举意味着北京正寻求对全球半导体及其他高科技制造领域施加更广泛的控制权。

The new rules, which are set to take effect Dec. 1, are the latest step by Beijing as it tightens the reins on rare earths to exploit China’s dominance in the sector.

新规定于12月1日生效，是北京利用其在该领域主导地位而收紧稀土管控的最新举措。

Hours later, Beijing announced that starting on Nov. 8, it will also restrict exports of many kinds of equipment needed to manufacture batteries for electric cars, in a bid to protect China’s competitive advantage in the car industry as well.

数小时后，北京方面又宣布，自11月8日起还将限制多种用于电动车电池制造设备的出口，意在保护中国在汽车产业方面的竞争优势。

The rare earth rules could scramble the supply chains of some of the world’s biggest companies, including Nvidia and Apple. Rare earths are essential for the production of many computer chips, which are used in everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence systems. Rare earths are also used to make the magnets that power the electric motors in drones, factory robots and offshore wind turbines, as well as the brakes, seats and other systems in cars.

稀土新规可能扰乱包括英伟达和苹果在内的全球多家大型企业的供应链。稀土是制造多种计算机芯片的关键原料，而芯片广泛应用于从智能手机到人工智能系统的各个领域。稀土制造的磁铁还用于无人机、工业机器人和海上风力发电机中的电机，以及汽车刹车系统、座椅和其他部件。

China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that the measures were needed to prevent rare earth metals from being used in technologies with possible military applications. For example, China refines all of the world’s samarium, a rare earth metal used by the United States to make F-35 fighter jets and a wide range of missiles.

中国商务部在声明中表示，实施这些措施是为了防止稀土金属被用于可能具有军事用途的技术。例如，全球的钐都是由中国精炼的——这种稀土金属被美国用于制造F-35战斗机和多种导弹。

The ministry said rare earth exports to overseas military suppliers “will not be approved.” Foreign governments and businesses have insisted that most rare earths are used for civilian purposes.

该部明确表示，对海外军事供应商的稀土出口“将不予放行”。外国政府和企业则坚称大多数稀土均用于民用领域。

China mines and processes the vast majority of the world’s rare earths. The rules issued on Thursday bar the transfer from China of any equipment or information that would help other countries establish their own production of rare earths or rare earth magnets.

中国开采和加工的稀土占全球总量的绝大部分。根据周四发布的规定，禁止从中国转移任何有助于其他国家建立自己的稀土或稀土磁铁生产能力的设备及信息。

Companies in the United States and Europe have been working to set up half a dozen factories for the production of rare earth magnets, and these factories have, for the most part, already taken delivery of needed equipment. But it can take up to three years for such factories to ramp up to their maximum production capacity.

美国和欧洲企业一直在筹建约六家稀土磁铁工厂，其中大部分工厂已获得所需设备。但此类工厂需要长达三年时间才能达到最大产能。

The rules issued on Thursday give broad authority to China’s Ministry of Commerce to restrict not just rare earth metals and magnets, but also the many devices like electric motors and computer chips that contain these materials.

周四颁布的法规赋予中国商务部广泛权限，不仅可限制稀土金属和磁铁出口，还可限制包含这些材料的电动机、计算机芯片等多种装备的出口。

“China is playing hardball,” said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior fellow at the University of California Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation. The move “could position Beijing to have complete control of the global A.I. and modern electronics supply chain,” he added.

加州大学全球冲突与合作研究所高级研究员吉米·古德里奇指出，“中国正在采取强硬手段。”他还说，此举“可能使北京得以完全掌控全球人工智能和现代电子产品的供应链”。

President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, are expected to meet soon for talks that are likely to include their countries’ many trade disputes. China restricted rare earth exports to the United States in April in response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Beijing has also restricted exports of rare earth magnets to Europe while demanding relief from European tariffs on electric cars from China.

预计特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平将很快举行会晤，议题可能包括两国之间的多项贸易争端。今年4月，中国为反制特朗普加征关税措施曾限制对美稀土出口。北京方面在要求欧盟放宽对中国电动汽车关税的同时，也加强了对欧洲的稀土磁铁出口管制。

European Union officials were “concerned” by the latest restrictions, Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, said at a news conference on Thursday. “The commission expects China to act as a reliable partner and to ensure stable, predictable access to critical raw materials,” he added.

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔在周四的新闻发布会上表示，欧盟官员对最新的出口限制措施“表示关切”。他还说：“欧盟委员会希望中国展现出可靠的合作伙伴姿态，确保对关键原材料的稳定、可预期的供应。”

Chinese government inspectors this summer ordered factories in the rare earth industry not to transfer any manufacturing equipment out of the country. Many industry technicians in China have been required to surrender their passports to prevent them from leaving the country.

今年夏天，中国政府的检查人员命令稀土行业的工厂不得将任何制造设备转移出境。中国许多稀土行业的技术人员还被要求上交护照，以防止他们离境。

For the past year, China has been gathering information on how companies around the world use rare earths. Since last October, exporters have been required to provide the authorities with detailed tracings of how shipments are used in Western supply chains.

过去一年里，中国一直在收集全球各地的企业使用稀土的相关信息。自去年10月以来，稀土出口企业被要求向监管部门提供详细资料，追踪产品在西方供应链中的具体流通。

China refines 99 percent of the world’s dysprosium, a kind of rare earth that is used in chips to preserve magnetic stability even when they become hot.

全球99%的镝元素精炼产能集中在中国，这种稀土被用于芯片中以确保其在高温环境下保持磁稳定性。

In the last few years, Nvidia and other semiconductor manufacturers have changed the material used in electricity management devices, called capacitors, on chips to make them more heat-resistant. The capacitors are made from ultrapure dysprosium, which is extremely difficult to refine. A single refinery in Wuxi, near Shanghai, produces the entire world’s supply of ultrapure dysprosium.

近几年来，英伟达等半导体制造商已改进芯片电流调节装置（即电容器）的材料以提升耐热性能。这些电容器采用极难提纯的超纯镝制造，而全球超纯镝供应完全来自上海附近无锡市的一家精炼厂。

That refinery is controlled by Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company whose biggest shareholder is China’s Ministry of Land Resources. Shenghe acquired an 86 percent stake in the refinery on April 1 from a Canadian company, Neo Performance Materials.

这家炼厂由中国企业盛和资源控股，而盛和资源的最大股东是中国的自然资源部。盛和资源于4月1日从加拿大公司Neo Performance Materials手中收购了该精炼厂86%的股份。

The United States has been aware of its vulnerability on rare earth metals since 2010, when China imposed a two-month embargo on rare earth exports to Japan. But progress on developing alternatives has been slow.

自2010年中国对日本实施为期两个月的稀土出口禁令以来，美国就已意识到自身在稀土金属方面的脆弱性。但替代方案的进展却始终缓慢。

“China has cornered the market for processing and refining of key critical minerals,” former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration said in a statement last year.

拜登政府去年在一份声明中坦言：“中国已垄断关键矿产的加工与精炼市场。”

Japanese companies are believed to hold sizable stockpiles of rare earths. South Korean companies imported large quantities of dysprosium in January and February from China as Beijing began imposing restrictions, China’s customs data shows.

据信日本企业持有大量稀土储备。中国海关数据显示，随着北京开始实施出口管制，韩国企业于今年1月和2月从中国进口了大量镝元素。

In April, China imposed export controls on seven of the 17 kinds of rare earths as well as magnets made from them. The rules issued on Thursday are much broader, with some of the rules covering all rare earths.

今年4月，中国对17种稀土中的七种及其制成的磁体实施出口管制。而周四发布的新规范围更广，部分条款涵盖了所有稀土品类。

The importance and power of China’s control over crucial steps in global supply chains have intensified in recent years, said Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “And China’s confidence in those choke points has gone up,” he said.

彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员马丁·乔泽姆帕指出，近年来中国在全球供应链关键环节中的控制力和影响力持续增强。“中国对这些关键节点的掌控信心正日益增加，”他说。

Rare earth materials are essential for the manufacturing of advanced semiconductors, including multiple types of memory chips and logic chips.

稀土材料对先进半导体制造至关重要，包括多种类型的存储芯片和逻辑芯片。

The new rules would require businesses that make most chips to obtain an export license to sell them anywhere in the world. That means the rules could apply to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which makes most of the world’s advanced logic chips, and SK Hynix and Samsung, the South Korean makers of memory chips.

根据新规，大多数芯片制造商若要向全球市场出口产品，必须先获得出口许可证。这意味着全球主要先进逻辑芯片制造商台积电以及韩国的存储芯片制造商SK海力士和三星等企业均需遵守此规。

Both kinds of chips are crucial components of the computers that power advanced A.I. systems. They are also technologies that Chinese companies have struggled to manufacture as well as foreign competitors do.

这两类芯片均是驱动先进人工智能系统的计算机核心组件，也是中国企业在技术水平上始终难以企及国外竞争对手的领域。

Most chip makers and their suppliers are careful to maintain their inventory of rare earths used in production, blunting the immediate impact of the new rule, said Joanne Chiao, an analyst at TrendForce, a market research firm in Taiwan.

台湾市场研究机构集邦科技分析师乔安妮·焦表示，大多数芯片制造商及其供应商都会谨慎维持生产所需的稀土库存，从而减缓新规在短期内带来的直接影响。

The rule’s sweeping scope mirrors how Washington has used export controls to control chip production anywhere in the world that uses American software or machinery. Beijing has denounced for many years the “long-arm jurisdiction” of the United States that requires other countries not to send to China many kinds of computer chips made with American technology. But with the rules issued on Thursday, China has turned the tables on the United States.

这项新规的广泛适用范围与华盛顿利用出口管制手段来限制全球任何使用美国软件或设备生产芯片的方式相似。多年来，北京一直批评美国的“长臂管辖”，即要求其他国家不得向中国出口使用美国技术制造的多种芯片。但随着周四新规的出台，中国对美国“以牙还牙”。

China’s latest rule restricts international shipments of products in which as little as 0.1 percent of the value consists of rare earths from China.

中国最新的规定限制了含有来自中国稀土成分的国际产品出口，即便这些稀土仅占产品价值的0.1%。

“It’s impossible to know whether or not a tech product has 0.1 percent Chinese rare earth content,” said Mr. Goodrich of the University of California Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation.

加州大学全球冲突与合作研究所的吉米·古德里奇表示：“技术上无法确知某个科技产品是否含有0.1%的中国稀土成分。”

A.I.-related sales have become the primary growth engine for the global economy. This week, the World Trade Organization said A.I. goods accounted for nearly half of the annual increase in global trade growth this year.

与人工智能相关的产品销售已成为全球经济增长的主要引擎。本周，世界贸易组织表示，人工智能相关商品占据了今年全球贸易增长额近一半的比重。

Nvidia has become the world’s most valuable company by selling to companies around the world advanced A.I. servers that contain technology manufactured in Taiwan, South Korea and elsewhere. But the U.S. government has curtailed the sale of those chips to foreign countries because of concerns that China and others could use them to develop new weapons or leap ahead of American companies in developing A.I. technology.

通过向全球企业销售搭载台湾、韩国等地制造的先进人工智能服务器，英伟达已成为全球市值最高的企业。但美国政府因担忧中国及其他国家利用这些芯片研发新武器或在人工智能技术领域超越美国企业，已限制了这些芯片的对外销售。

Nvidia declined to comment, and TSMC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

英伟达拒绝置评，台积电未立即回应置评请求。

On the Tibetan Plateau, nearly 10,000 feet high, solar panels stretch to the horizon and cover an area seven times the size of Manhattan. They soak up sunlight that is much brighter than at sea level because the air is so thin.

在海拔近3000米的青藏高原上，光伏板绵延至天际，覆盖面积相当于曼哈顿的七倍。由于空气稀薄，这里的阳光比海平面更强烈，光伏板将其尽数吸纳。

Wind turbines dot nearby ridgelines and stand in long rows across arid, empty plains above the occasional sheep herder with his flock. They capture night breezes, balancing the daytime power from the solar panels. Hydropower dams sit where rivers spill down long chasms at the edges of the plateau. And high-voltage power lines carry all this electricity to businesses and homes more than 1,000 miles away.

附近的山脊上点缀着风力发电机；干旱空旷的平原上，它们成排矗立，偶尔能看到牧羊人带着羊群穿行其间。这些风机捕捉着夜晚的微风，与白天的太阳能形成了互补。在青藏高原边缘河流奔涌的狭长裂谷，坐落着水力发电站群。高压输电线路则将这些电力输送到上千公里外的企业和家庭。

China is building an enormous network of clean energy industries on the Tibetan Plateau, the world’s highest. The intention is to harness the region’s bright sunshine, cold temperatures and sky-touching altitude to provide low-cost, renewable energy. The result is enough renewable energy to provide the plateau with nearly all of the power it needs, including for data centers used in China’s artificial intelligence development.

中国正在青藏高原——这个世界上海拔最高的地区——建设一个庞大的清洁能源产业网络。其目标是利用该地区强烈的日照、低温环境及高海拔优势，打造低成本可再生能源体系。由此产生的清洁能源足以满足该高原地区近乎全部的用电需求，包括中国用于人工智能开发的数据中心集群。

While China still burns as much coal as the rest of the world combined, last month President Xi Jinping made a stunning pledge. Speaking before the United Nations, he said for the first time that the country would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions across its economy and would expand renewable energy sixfold in coming years. It was a moment of global significance for the nation that is currently the world’s biggest polluter.

尽管中国燃煤量仍然相当于世界其他国家总和，但上个月，习近平主席作出了一项外界瞩目的承诺。他在联合国发表的讲话中首次表示中国将在各个经济领域减少温室气体排放，并在未来数年将可再生能源扩大六倍。对于目前全球最大污染国中国来说，这是一个具有全球意义的时刻。

China’s clean energy efforts contrast with the ambitions of the United States under the Trump administration, which is using its diplomatic and economic muscle to pressure other countries to buy more American gas, oil and coal. China is investing in cheaper solar and wind technology, along with batteries and electric vehicles, with the aim of becoming the world’s supplier of renewable energy and the products that rely on it.

中国在清洁能源领域的努力与特朗普政府领导下的美国的雄心形成鲜明对比。特朗普政府正利用其外交和经济实力向其他国家施压，要求它们购买更多美国的天然气、石油和煤炭。中国则正在投资更廉价的太阳能和风能技术，以及电池和电动汽车，旨在成为全球可再生能源及其相关产品的供应国。

The main group of solar farms, known as the Talatan Solar Park, dwarfs every other cluster of solar farms in the world. It covers 162 square miles in Gonghe County, an alpine desert in sparsely inhabited Qinghai, a province in western China.

主要的太阳能电站群——塔拉滩光伏产业园的规模令全球其他光伏集群相形见绌。它已覆盖420平方公里，位于地广人稀的青海共和县的高寒荒漠地带。

来源：Planet的卫星图像，2025年7月

No other country on the planet is using high altitudes for solar, wind and hydropower on a scale as great as China’s on the Tibetan Plateau. The effort is a case study of how China has come to dominate the future of clean energy. With the help of substantial government-directed investment and planning, electricity companies are weaning the country off imported oil, natural gas and coal — a national priority.

若论高海拔地区的光伏、风电、水电开发，中国在青藏高原的清洁能源开发规模在全球独占鳌头。这里可以作为中国如何主导未来清洁能源发展的一个典型案例。得益于政府主导的巨额投资与规划，中国的电力企业正逐步摆脱对进口石油、天然气及煤炭的依赖——这已被列为国家优先战略。

Renewable energy helps China power 30,000 miles of high-speed train routes and its growing fleet of electric cars. At the same time, cheap electricity enables China to manufacture even more solar panels, which dominate global markets and power artificial intelligence data centers.

可再生能源正为中国4.8万公里的高铁线路和不断增长的新能源汽车提供动力。与此同时，低廉的电力成本使中国能够制造更多主导全球市场的光伏板，并为人工智能数据中心提供充足的电力。

Electricity from solar and wind power in Qinghai, which occupies the northern third of the Tibetan Plateau, costs about 40 percent less than coal-fired power. Qinghai encompasses most of a region known among Tibetans as Amdo and includes the birthplace of the current Dalai Lama, now in exile.

在青藏高原北部三分之一的区域所在的青海省，太阳能与风力发电成本较燃煤发电低约40%。青海涵盖了藏人所称的安多地区的大部分，包括正流亡海外的现任达赖喇嘛的出生地。

In July, China’s premier, Li Qiang, oversaw the groundbreaking of five additional dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in southern Tibet, a region of China that is tightly restricted by the Communist Party and not open to Western journalists. The Chinese government has released little information about the construction of the dams, but they are expected to take years to complete and would most likely constitute the world’s largest hydropower project. Its construction has alarmed India, which fears that China could use it to cut off water supplies to downstream areas of eastern India.

今年7月，中国国务院总理李强主持了在西藏南部雅鲁藏布江上五座新水电站的开工仪式。该地区受到中共严格管控，禁止西方记者进入。中国政府未透露太多水坝建设细节，但预计完工需要多年时间，一旦建成，很可能成为世界上最大的水电工程。该项目的建设引发了印度的担忧，它担心中国可能借此切断印度东部下游地区的供水。

China is not the first country to experiment with high-altitude clean energy. But other places as high as the Tibetan Plateau are mountainous and steep. Qinghai, slightly bigger than Texas, is mostly flat — optimal for solar panels and the roads needed to bring them in. And the cold air improves the efficiency of solar panels.

中国并非第一个在高海拔地区试验清洁能源的国家。但其他与青藏高原海拔相当的地区往往是陡峭的山地。青海面积略大于得克萨斯州，却以平坦地势为主——这为光伏板的铺设及运输道路的建设提供了理想条件。高寒气候还能提升光伏板的发电效率。

Switzerland has experimented with small solar power installations at the top of cable railways. It opened a solar power farm at an altitude of 5,940 feet, but it can generate only about 0.5 megawatts, enough to power about 80 American households.

瑞士曾在缆车轨道上安装小型太阳能发电装置，并在海拔1800米处建了一座太阳能电站，但发电能力只有0.5兆瓦，仅可满足约80户美国家庭的用电。

The state-owned Power Construction Corporation of China completed a 480-megawatt solar project last year at an altitude of 4,000 feet on the plateau of the Atacama Desert in Chile, which is the world’s driest nonpolar desert, but much lower than the Tibetan Plateau.

中国的国有企业——中国电力建设集团去年在智利阿塔卡马沙漠高原完成了一个480兆瓦的太阳能项目。阿塔卡马沙漠是世界上最干旱的非极地沙漠，海拔约1200米，远低于青藏高原。

Qinghai’s Talatan solar project dwarfs these. It has a capacity of 16,930 megawatts of power, which could run every household in Chicago. It is still expanding, adding panels with a target of growing to 10 times the area of Manhattan in three years. Another 4,700 megawatts of wind energy and 7,380 megawatts of hydroelectric dams are nearby.

青海的塔拉滩光伏项目远远超过了这些项目的规模。它的装机容量高达16930兆瓦，足以满足芝加哥所有家庭的用电需求。该项目仍在扩建中，持续增加的光伏板预计在三年内将占地规模扩大至曼哈顿的十倍。此外，附近还有4700兆瓦的风能项目和7380兆瓦的水电设施。

来源：Global Solar Atlas

China is now building at even higher elevations in mountain valleys on the Tibetan Plateau, although with smaller solar farms. Near Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, a Chinese power company recently installed 150 megawatts of solar panels at 17,000 feet.

中国目前正在青藏高原海拔更高的山谷建设光伏项目，尽管这些光伏电站规模较小。在西藏首府拉萨附近，一家中国电力公司最近在海拔约5180米处安装了150兆瓦的光伏板。

As an incentive to building solar farms, many western Chinese provinces initially offered free land to companies. The central government has recently ordered the provinces to begin charging nominal annual fees to encourage efficient use of the land.

为了鼓励企业建设太阳能电站，中国西部的许多省份最初向企业免费提供土地。但中央政府最近下令各省开始征收象征性年费，以促进土地的利用效率。

The Talatan solar project is on sandy soil with sparse vegetation used as grazing lands by ethnic Tibetan herders. The first panels installed at the site in 2012 were so low to the ground that sheep had trouble grazing under and around them. Now all panels are installed on higher mountings, said Liu Ta, the project’s manager.

塔拉滩光伏项目建在植被稀疏的沙质土壤上，这里原来是藏族牧民的牧场。项目经理刘塔说，2012年最早安装的光伏板离地面太低，导致羊群难以在板下或板间吃草。如今，所有的光伏板都安装在支架上。

Dislocating people for power projects is politically sensitive all over the world. But high-altitude projects affect relatively few people in sparsely populated settlements. China pushed more than one million people out of their homes in west-central China a quarter-century ago and flooded a vast area for the reservoir of the Three Gorges Dam. This year, China has been installing enough solar panels every three weeks to match the power generation capacity of that dam.

因电力项目建设而重新安置居民在世界各地都是敏感的政治议题。不过，高海拔项目影响的人口相对较少，因为这些地区人口稀少。大约25年前，为了修建三峡大坝的水库——大片土地因此受淹，中国曾经将中西部地区的逾百万人重新安置。而今年，中国每三周新装光伏板的装机规模就足以媲美三峡大坝的发电量。

Generating wind power on the plateau is trickier. At high altitudes, the winds blow fast, but the thin air doesn’t push wind turbine blades as effectively as thicker air closer to sea level.

在高原发展风电则更为棘手。虽然高海拔地区的风力强劲，但由于空气稀薄，风力对风机叶片的推动效率不如低海拔地区的稠密空气。

Still, the region has many wind turbines. Operators of the electricity grid try to balance the generation of solar power by day with wind power by night to maintain steady voltage and avoid blackouts.

尽管如此，该地区仍建有大量风力发电机。电网运营商通过日间太阳能与夜间风能的协同发电，以维持电压稳定，防止供电中断。

2023年，林芝市墨脱县境内的雅鲁藏布江一段。

Qinghai Province sends excess solar power to Shaanxi Province in west-central China. In exchange, Qinghai tops off the wind power generated locally at night with small amounts of electricity generated by Shaanxi coal plants.

青海省将富余的太阳能电力输送给中西部的陕西省。作为交换，当青海夜间风力发电不足时，则由陕西省的燃煤电厂提供少量电力进行补充。

In addition, Qinghai is increasingly turning to hydropower to balance the plateau’s solar power, in the hopes of using less coal-fired power.

此外，青海还越来越多地依靠水电来平衡高原上的太阳能发电，希望借此减少对燃煤电力的依赖。

More than a decade ago, eight dams were built on the Yellow River as it drops 3,300 feet, flowing off the eastern side of the plateau and down into eastern China. More are under construction to balance and supplement the solar energy being generated in Qinghai Province.

十多年前，黄河自青藏高原东坡流入中国东部落差超过1000米的河段上已建成八座水坝。目前仍有更多水坝在建设中，为青海省正在大力发展的太阳能发电提供平衡和补充。

“When photovoltaic power is insufficient, I can use hydropower to make up for it,” said Zhu Yuanqing, power division director of the Qinghai Provincial Energy Bureau.

青海省能源局电力处处长祝源清表示：“当光伏发电不足时，可以用水电来补充。”

Two additional hydropower projects are being built in high mountain valleys near the Talatan Solar Park. The plan for both, Qinghai officials said, is to use excess solar power generated during the day to pump water up into the projects’ reservoirs several miles up. The water will be allowed to drop down through mountain tubes to the plateau at night, spinning giant turbines to generate immense amounts of electricity.

塔拉滩光伏发电园区附近的高山峡谷中，另有两个水电项目正在建设。青海官员称，这两个项目的规划是：利用白天产生的多余光伏发电量，将水抽到几公里外的高位水库中；到了夜晚，让蓄水通过山间管道向下流回高原，驱动大型涡轮机产生大量电力。

Several electricity-intensive industries are moving to the region to tap its inexpensive power. One is the task of turning quartzite from mines into polysilicon to make solar panels. Data centers for artificial intelligence are also drawn to the area.

多个高耗能产业正迁至该地区，以利用当地廉价的电力资源。其中一项是将矿山开采的石英岩加工成用于制造太阳能电池板的多晶硅。人工智能数据中心也被吸引至此。

Qinghai plans to increase its data center capacity more than five times by 2030. The facilities are in Xining, the provincial capital, at an altitude of 7,500 feet, and in Yushu and Guoluo, two chilly towns at an altitude over 12,000 feet.

青海省计划到2030年将其数据中心算力提升逾五倍。这些数据中心分布在三个区域：海拔约2200米的省会西宁市，以及海拔约3600米、气候寒冷的玉树和果洛两地。

The data centers consume 40 percent less electricity, their main operating cost, than similar ones at sea level because air-conditioning is barely needed, said Zhang Jingang, the executive vice governor of Qinghai. Air warmed by the data centers’ computer servers is circulated through underground pipes to heat other buildings in Yushu and Guoluo, replacing coal-fired boilers.

青海省常务副省长张锦刚表示，这些数据中心的耗电量（运营的主要成本）比位于海平面地区的同类设施低40%，因为几乎无需使用空调制冷。此外，数据中心服务器产生的热空气会通过地下管道循环，为玉树和果洛的其他建筑供暖，取代传统的燃煤锅炉。

Mr. Zhang spoke at a news conference in Xining as part of a government-organized media tour this summer of clean energy sites in Qinghai, which usually restricts foreign media access to hide dissent by its large ethnic Tibetan population. The New York Times paid for its own travel costs.

张锦刚是在西宁的一场新闻发布会上作出上述表述的。此次发布会是今年夏季政府组织的青海清洁能源基地媒体考察活动的一部分——青海省通常会限制外国媒体进入，以掩盖其境内大量藏族人口的异议声音。《纽约时报》自己承担差旅费用进行了此次采访。

To connect the data centers’ computing power to many of China’s technology companies, data is transferred from Shanghai to Qinghai on China’s national fiber-optic grid. The artificial intelligence programming of dancing humanoid robots for a televised gala during Lunar New Year in January was done at data centers in Qinghai.

为将数据中心的算力与中国多家科技企业对接，数据通过中国国家光纤骨干网从上海传输至青海。今年1月春节期间，电视联欢晚会上跳舞的人形机器人的人工智能编程工作便是在青海的数据中心完成。

青海省共和县塔拉滩光伏园区附近的高压输电线。

But even fiber-optic cables do not provide quick enough communications for one of the fastest-growing computation needs in China: self-driving cars. The data centers for these cars are still in eastern China, where most of the population lives and drives.

但对于中国增长最快的算力需求之一自动驾驶汽车而言，即便光纤电缆也无法提供足够快的通信速度。这类汽车的数据中心仍布局在人口和车辆最为密集的中国东部地区。

“That kind of data center must not be placed in Qinghai,” Mr. Zhu said. “An accident may occur if you are not careful.”

“所以那种数据中心肯定不敢放在青海，”祝源清表示。“稍微一不小心就出事故。”