Two oil tankers were attacked and left burning off the Iraqi coast on Thursday, the latest in a series of strikes during the Middle East war that have crippled the global energy sector.

周四，两艘油轮在伊拉克海岸附近遭到袭击并起火燃烧。这是中东战争期间一系列袭击中的最新一起，这些袭击已经严重冲击了全球能源行业。

Iran has taken responsibility for several of the strikes on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil output normally flows. Tehran has said that it would not allow oil shipments that benefit the United States and its allies to pass through the strait.

伊朗对波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡发生的多起商船遇袭事件负责。正常情况下，全球五分之一的石油产量经由此处运输。德黑兰表示，不会允许那些惠及美国及其盟友的石油运输通过该海峡。

Oil prices have surged to trade around $100 per barrel, forcing dozens of countries to release emergency reserves to stabilize their economies.

油价已飙升至每桶100美元左右，迫使数十个国家释放紧急石油储备以稳定经济。

The strikes on shipping have given Iran a strategic success, putting economic pressure on the United States and its allies even as Iran is under heavy attack. Tehran’s actions have also raised questions about whether the United States planned for a lengthy shutdown of the strait.

针对航运的袭击为伊朗带来了一项战略成果：即使在其自身遭受重创之际，仍对美国及其盟友施加了经济压力。德黑兰的行动也引发了疑问：美国是否为霍尔木兹海峡的长期关闭做好了准备。

“The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used,” said Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader.

“封锁霍尔木兹海峡这一杠杆必须继续加以运用，”伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊说。

What’s the latest?

最新情况如何？

On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility for attacking one of the two tankers off Iraq’s coast, saying the Marshall Islands-flagged ship had “disobeyed and ignored” warnings.

周四，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队声称对伊拉克海岸外两艘油轮中其中一艘的袭击负责，并表示这艘悬挂马绍尔群岛国旗的船只“违抗并无视”警告。

周四，两艘油轮在伊拉克附近海域起火，图为其中一艘。

A British naval monitoring group said that a third ship was struck by an unknown projectile near Dubai. Security concerns on Thursday also forced the closure of oil export terminals in Iraq and Oman.

英国的一个海事安全监测机构表示，还有第三艘船在迪拜附近被一枚不明射弹击中。周四的安全担忧还迫使伊拉克和阿曼的石油出口码头关闭。

In all, more than a dozen shipping vessels have been struck since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February.

自2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，已有超过十艘航运船只遭到袭击。

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

为何霍尔木兹海峡如此重要？

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the broader Indian Ocean. It is the only sea route that can move oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s coastline runs along both the strait and the gulf.

霍尔木兹海峡是一条具有战略意义的水道，连接波斯湾与阿曼湾以及更广阔的印度洋。它是将石油、天然气和其他货物从波斯湾运往外界的唯一海上通道。伊朗的海岸线沿着霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾延伸。

At the strait’s narrowest point — between Iran to the north and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula to the south — the navigable channel is about two miles wide each for inbound and outbound traffic, according to the International Energy Agency.

根据国际能源署的数据，在海峡最狭窄处——北侧是伊朗，南侧是阿曼的穆桑代姆半岛——进出航道的宽度各约3.2公里。

In normal times, about 20 percent of global oil and liquid natural gas passes through the strait. Most of the fossil fuels are bound for Asia, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea.

在正常情况下，全球约20%的石油和液化天然气经过该海峡。大部分化石燃料运往亚洲，特别是中国、印度、日本和韩国。

穿越海峡的油气运输船舶航线。注：包括自1月1日至3月2日所有油轮和天然气运输船。来源：Kpler。

Other large vessels also normally go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. Crucial industrial goods — including helium from Qatar, fertilizer from Oman and Saudi Arabia and plastic feedstocks from Saudi Arabia and Emirati petrochemical plants — also travel through Hormuz.

除了能源运输外，其他大型船只通常也会经过这条海峡，包括汽车运输船和集装箱船。一些关键工业产品——例如卡塔尔的氦气、阿曼和沙特的化肥，以及来自沙特和阿联酋石化厂的塑料原料——也通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。

How is Iran choking off traffic?

伊朗是如何“掐住”航道通行的？

Iran’s military currently has a strategic advantage in the Persian Gulf and the strait, with the ability to threaten shipping traffic, even after much of its navy has been destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes.

伊朗军队目前在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡拥有战略优势，有能力威胁航运交通——即便其海军大部分力量已被美以空袭摧毁。

周三，一艘阿联酋海军舰艇在霍尔木兹海峡为货船和油轮护航。

Projectiles: Since the war began, at least a dozen cargo vessels and oil tankers have been hit in the Gulf and the strait. Iran has taken responsibility for several of them. It’s not entirely clear what type of weapons it used, but Iran’s military has deployed a wide array of missiles and drones during the conflict.

射弹：自战争爆发以来，至少十余艘货船和油轮在海湾及海峡地区遭袭。伊朗已对其中多起袭击负责。目前尚不完全清楚其使用的武器类型，但伊朗军队在冲突中动用了种类繁多的导弹和无人机。

Mines: The next stage of the fighting may involve naval mines, explosives that are often no bigger than a beach ball which can still sink large vessels. On Thursday, Iran started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials.

水雷：
战斗的下一阶段可能涉及水雷。这些爆炸装置往往只有沙滩球大小，却足以击沉大型船只。美国官员表示，伊朗周四已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷。

The U.S. has destroyed dozens of larger Iranian mine-laying vessels, but Iran used smaller boats — of which the I.R.G.C. has hundreds, if not thousands — for the mining operation, a U.S. official said.

美国此前摧毁了数十艘较大的伊朗布雷舰，但一名美国官员表示，伊朗在此次布雷行动中使用的是更小型的船只——伊斯兰革命卫队拥有数百甚至上千艘这种船。

On Thursday, the U.S. military said it had damaged or destroyed over 30 mine-laying vessels since the war began. It is not clear whether any Iranian mines have actually been deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.

周四，美军方表示自开战以来已击毁或击沉超过30艘伊朗布雷船。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否真的已经在霍尔木兹海峡布设了水雷。

Insurance: After a relatively small number of strikes, the cost of insuring a vessel to go through the strait has soared, making it prohibitively expensive. President Trump has said the U.S. government may provide affordable insurance coverage, but experts are dubious. One analyst estimated the potential cost could be more than $300 billion.

保险：在发生几次袭击之后，通过该海峡航行的船舶保险费已经大幅上涨，高到几乎难以承受。特朗普总统表示，美国政府可能会提供较为低廉的保险保障，但专家对此持怀疑态度。有分析师估计，潜在成本可能超过3000亿美元。

Iran’s own tankers: For years, the common wisdom among military analysts was that Iran would not close the strait because it needed to export its own oil. But shipping analysts say that in recent days, Iran has been loading oil and exporting it through the strait, letting its own ships through even as it threatens and attacks others.

伊朗自己的油轮：多年来，军事分析界普遍认为伊朗不会封锁该海峡，因为它自身也需要通过这里出口石油。但航运分析人士表示，最近几天伊朗仍在装载石油并通过海峡出口，让本国船只通行的同时，却威胁、袭击他国船只。

Since March 1, at least 10 tankers and gas carriers have left Iran and transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a shipping analysis firm.

据航运分析公司劳氏海事数据，自3月1日以来，至少10艘油轮和液化气船离开伊朗并穿越了霍尔木兹海峡。

How is it affecting energy prices around the world?

这对全球能源价格造成了什么影响？

The war in the Middle East has caused the “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

国际能源署周四表示，中东战争已造成“全球石油市场历史上最严重的供应中断”。

In the United States, gasoline prices rose by about 20 percent. In Europe, the price of natural gas surged more than 43 percent, and diesel prices doubled. Asia, which receives roughly 70 percent of all crude shipped through Hormuz, absorbed the worst of the supply shock, forcing countries like Pakistan to move to a four-day workweek to conserve fuel.

在美国，汽油价格上涨了大约20%。在欧洲，天然气价格飙升超过43%，柴油价格翻了一番。亚洲承受了最严重的供应冲击——大约70%通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油都流向亚洲，这迫使像巴基斯坦这样的国家实行每周四天工作制，以节约燃料。

In response, the 32 member states of the I.E.A. agreed this week to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, the most ever. But the move did not bring oil prices down: The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed briefly back above $100 a barrel on Thursday, about $30 higher than it was before the war began.

作为回应，国际能源署32个成员国本周同意从战略储备中释放4亿桶石油，规模为历史之最。但这一举措并没有让油价下降：全球基准布伦特原油价格周四短暂回升至每桶100美元上方，较战前高出约30美元。

Higher energy prices have rippled across the global economy, stoking inflation and threatening countries around the world.

能源价格上涨的涟漪效应波及全球经济，加剧通货膨胀，并给世界各国造成威胁。

Mr. Trump has touted the “energy dominance” of the United States, which is the world’s biggest oil producer. But oil is a globally priced commodity, so higher crude prices translate into higher prices at U.S. gas stations, regardless of how much oil the U.S. produces domestically.

特朗普一直强调美国的“能源主导地位”，因为美国是世界最大的石油生产国。但石油是一种全球定价的商品，因此无论美国国内生产多少石油，原油价格上涨都会转化为美国加油站油价的攀升。

Bombs are exploding in Iran and the Middle East, but the fallout is rattling households and businesses in neighborhoods all over the globe.

炸弹在伊朗和中东地区爆炸，但其后果正冲击着全球各地的家庭和企业。

In Kansas, home buyers saw 30-year mortgage rates edge above 6 percent this week. In Western India, families mourning the death of a loved one discovered that gas-fired crematories had been temporarily closed.

在堪萨斯州，购房者看到30年期抵押贷款利率本周突破了6%。在印度西部，悼念亲人的家属发现，使用燃气焚化炉的火葬场暂时关闭。

In Hanoi, Vietnam, gas station owners posted “sold out” signs. In Kenya, tea growers and traders worried their exports to Iran would rot on the dock. And across the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Mexico, farmers blanched at the surge in fertilizer costs.

在越南河内，加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。在肯尼亚，茶叶种植者和贸易商担心，他们出口到伊朗的货物会烂在码头上。而在美国、加拿大、欧洲、英国和墨西哥，化肥成本的飙升让农民们大惊失色。

The widening war in Iran has delivered a stunning punch to a worldwide economy that has already been walloped by a breakdown of the international trading order, war in Ukraine and President Trump’s chaotic policymaking.

全球经济本已因国际贸易秩序崩溃、乌克兰战争以及特朗普总统混乱的政策制定而备受冲击，这场愈演愈烈的伊朗战争成为又一次沉重的打击。

“This really is the big one,” David Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and U.S. Energy Department official, said of the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important choke point for oil. It is the emergency scenario everyone feared, he said.

“这可是个大问题了，”前美国外交官、美国能源部官员大卫·戈德温在谈到霍尔木兹海峡关闭时表示，那是全球最重要的石油输运咽喉。他说，这是每个人都担心的危急情况。

肯尼亚的茶叶种植者，那里的贸易商担心他们的出口产品无法到达目的地。

Cargo deliveries have been stranded, shipping charges have increased and insurance premiums have skyrocketed. Yes, the price of gas at the pump is affected. But so is the price of food, medicine, airplane tickets, electricity, cooking oil, semiconductors and more.

货物运输陷入停滞，航运费用增加，保险费也随之飙升。是的，加油站的汽油价格受到了影响，但食品、药品、飞机票、电力、食用油、半导体等等的价格同样如此。

A drawn-out war between the United States and Iran could have “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil market and the global economy, Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil and gas company, warned this week.

全球最大石油和天然气公司沙特阿美的首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔本周警告称，美国与伊朗之间长期的战争可能给世界石油市场和全球经济带来“灾难性后果”。

Yet even if the war, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel struck Iran, wraps up relatively quickly, this latest upheaval is sending consumers, workers and employers on another unnerving and unpredictable ride.

然而，即便始于2月28日美以袭击伊朗的战争能相对较快地结束，这场最新的动荡也正将消费者、工人、雇主推入又一个令人不安且不可预测的境地。

It’s not just that small business owners and corporate executives must once again re-evaluate their supply chains, manage additional price increases and track shifting restrictions on who they can do business with. Or that the added uncertainty undermines confidence, making consumers reluctant to spend and businesses reluctant to invest.

这不仅仅是因为小企业主和企业高管必须再次重新评估其供应链，应对额外的价格上涨，并跟踪针对贸易对象不断变化的限制措施；也不仅仅是因为不确定性的增加削弱了信心，使消费者不愿支出，企业不愿投资。

It’s that this remapping of power dynamics in the Middle East could set off a string of consequences whose full force might not be known for months or years.

而是因为这种中东权力格局的重构可能会引发一系列连锁反应，其全面影响可能在数月或数年后才会显现。

Meg Jacobs, the author of “Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s,” pointed out that prices didn’t immediately go back down after the oil embargo in 1973 and 1974. They remained high for the rest of the decade.

《加油站恐慌：能源危机与20世纪70年代美国政治转型》(Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s)一书的作者梅格·雅各布斯指出，在1973年和1974年的石油禁运之后，物价并未立即回落，而是在那十年的余下时间里一直处于高位。

The supply situation is completely different today, with many more producers, Ms. Jacobs emphasized. But the crisis that the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries created with its embargo set off a chain of events that these oil producers never envisioned.

雅各布斯强调，今天的供应状况已完全不同，生产商要多得多。但阿拉伯石油输出国组织通过禁运创造的危机，引发了一系列这些石油生产商从未预料到的事件。

越南加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。

The oil shock prompted other countries, most significantly the United States, to conserve energy and develop fuel-efficient cars and their own oil and natural gas industries. Ultimately, the Arab countries’ monopolistic stranglehold was broken. Oil prices ended up collapsing in 1986.

石油危机促使其他国家（最显著的是美国）节约能源，开发燃油效率高的汽车，并发展自己的石油和天然气工业。最终，阿拉伯国家的垄断性钳制被打破，石油价格最终在1986年崩盘。

Today’s actions in Iran and the surrounding region may similarly have consequences that are both unexpected and far-reaching.

今天在伊朗及周边地区的行动可能同样会产生出人意料的深远影响。

Ms. Jacobs, for example, pointed to the likelihood of an emboldened and strengthened Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. This week Mr. Trump eased some of the restrictions on Russian oil exports that had been imposed to pressure Mr. Putin over the war in Ukraine.

例如，雅各布斯指出，俄罗斯总统普京可能会因此变得更加大胆，力量也得到增强。本周，特朗普放宽了对俄罗斯石油出口的部分限制，这些限制此前是为了在乌克兰战争问题上向普京施压而实施的。

Higher oil prices will boost Russia’s beleaguered economy and war machine. And Mr. Putin has taken the opportunity to taunt European leaders who supported sanctions on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

走高的油价将提振俄罗斯陷入困境的经济和战争机器。普京也借此机会嘲讽了那些在乌克兰战争爆发后支持对俄能源制裁的欧洲领导人。

The crisis is also a potent reminder of the persistent vulnerabilities around critical supply chains. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine caused national leaders all over the world to talk about the need to prioritize resilience and security.

这场危机还敲响了警钟，提醒人们关键供应链依然存在持续的脆弱性。新冠肺炎疫情和乌克兰战争曾促使世界各地的国家领导人讨论优先考虑韧性和安全的必要性。

The U.S.- Israeli war in Iran, though, once again highlights how disruptions in the global trading system can still inflict severe economic pain.

然而，美以在伊朗进行的战争再次凸显了全球贸易体系的紊乱仍能造成严重的经济创伤。

西班牙和其他国家的农民正努力应对化肥成本的飙升。

Europeans only recently dug out of their deep dependency on Russian gas and oil. For them, the timing of this energy squeeze could hardly be worse. Producers, still reeling from the impact of the tariffs, must now contend with higher energy costs. That will be a blow to countries like Germany with large, energy-hungry chemical, pharmaceutical and auto industries.

欧洲人直到最近才摆脱对俄罗斯天然气和石油的深度依赖。对他们来说，这次能源紧缩正值一个不能更糟的时刻。仍在承受关税冲击的生产商现在必须应对更高的能源成本。这对德国等拥有大型、高能耗化工、制药和汽车行业的国家将是一个打击。

With gas storage at low levels, there’s also likely to be some “panic refilling” in Europe that could push against price drops over the next six months or so, Mr. Goldwyn, the former energy department official, said.

前能源部官员戈德温表示，由于天然气储量处于低水平，欧洲可能会出现某种“恐慌性补库存”，这可能会阻碍未来六个月左右的价格下跌。

Rising oil prices do have the potential to increase interest in alternative energy sources like solar, wind and nuclear power, Mr. Goldwyn added.

戈德温还说，油价上涨确实有可能增加人们对太阳能、风能和核能等替代能源的兴趣。

Political support, though, is critical to developing any of these resources. And at least in the United States, Mr. Trump’s hostility to renewable energy remains fierce.

然而，政治支持对于开发任何此类资源都至关重要。至少在美国，特朗普对可再生能源的敌意依然强烈。

Asian economies are even more exposed. They, too, are dependent on energy imports. In addition, poor and middle-income countries are subject to the vagaries of currency exchange rates. And when the dollar or euro strengthens, all their imports suddenly become more expensive.

亚洲经济体面临的风险甚至更大。他们同样依赖能源进口。此外，贫困和中等收入国家还受制于汇率的反复无常。当美元或欧元走强时，他们所有的进口商品突然间都会变得更加昂贵。

Central bankers around the world face a difficult combination of circumstances. The United States has a stronger economy than many other countries. Nonetheless, its Federal Reserve confronts the same questions that are confounding other central bankers. Do they raise interest rates to head off a revival of inflation as energy prices spike, or lower rates as labor markets are weakening and growth is slowing?

全球各地央行面临着极其复杂的处境。美国的经济比许多其他国家都要强。尽管如此，美联储也面临着令其他央行行长困惑的同样问题：是该在能源价格飙升时加息以遏制通胀复苏，还是在劳动力市场疲软、增长放缓时降息？

Elevated rates will also keep borrowing costs high at a time when rich and poor countries are facing record levels of debt. That means more money that might have been used for health care, roads, housing or education instead will go to interest payments on debt.

持续的高利率也将使借贷成本维持在高位，而此时无论贫富国家都面临着创纪录的债务水平。这意味着本可以用于医疗、道路、住房或教育的更多资金将转而用于支付债务利息。

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at the Dutch bank ING, noted that tech companies, especially those specializing in artificial intelligence, are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. A small handful of these companies have been the main drivers of growth in the U.S. economy — not to mention lofty stock valuations. “It could lead to the sharp correction in stock markets,” he said.

荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基指出，科技公司，尤其是那些专注于人工智能的公司，对利率变化高度敏感。少数几家此类公司一直是美国经济增长的主要驱动力，更不用说高昂的股票估值了。“这可能导致股市出现剧烈调整，”他说。

Mr. Trump’s rationale for the attacks and his objectives have shifted from one day to the next. But the decision to wage war on Iran undercuts the recently popular idea that the world was neatly breaking down into great power spheres of influence.

特朗普对攻击伊朗给出的理由及其目标每天都在变化。但发动对伊战争的决定削弱了近期流行的观点——即世界正在整齐地划分为大国势力范围。

Mr. Trump’s toppling of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, seizure of its oil and declaration of a “Donroe Doctrine” staked a claim for hegemony in North and South America.

特朗普推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗、夺取该国石油并宣告“唐罗主义”的到来，体现了他在南北美洲建立霸权的野心。

But the war in Iran shows that Mr. Trump still sees the United States as a superpower with global reach and global interests. And that he is willing to use military force to achieve both political and economic aims.

但伊朗战争表明，特朗普仍将美国视为拥有全球影响力且涉及全球利益的超级大国。而且他愿意利用武力手段来达成政治和经济双重目的。

“And that matters for the economy,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, as Washington moves to increasingly direct the flow of goods, services and money around the globe.

“这对经济至关重要，”凯投宏观集团(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔·希尔林表示，因为华盛顿正日益加强对全球商品、服务和资金流动的直接管控。

Since China’s leader, Xi Jinping, rose to power more than a decade ago, the ruling Communist Party has worked aggressively to make ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, Tibet and elsewhere in the country identify first and foremost as patriotic citizens.

自中国领导人习近平十多年前上台以来，执政的共产党一直积极致力于推动新疆、西藏及国内其他地区的少数民族首先将自己认同为爱国公民。

Now, this campaign of assimilation has been codified into an expansive new law that makes “ethnic unity” the responsibility of all of society, including every level of the government, business owners and parents.

如今，这场同化运动已被纳入一项内容广泛的新法律，将“民族团结”确立为全社会的责任，将各级政府、企业主和父母都包括在内。

The law, which was approved at the close of China’s legislative meeting on Thursday, has wide-ranging provisions that touch on education, housing policy, entertainment and other areas. It embodies Mr. Xi’s mission to forge a single national identity molded by the party — seen as a way to protect Beijing’s rule from threats at home and abroad.

该法律于周四在中国立法会议结束时通过，其条款范围广泛，涉及教育、住房政策、娱乐及其他领域。它承载了习近平构建由党打造单一国家认同的使命，被视为保护北京统治，抵御国内外威胁的手段。

While Beijing says the law will protect the traditions of all officially recognized 56 ethnic groups, a main focus appears to be assimilating minority residents into the culture of the Han Chinese, who are the majority. It orders that Mandarin Chinese be the language of instruction in schools and in official communication. (In government communication when both languages are used, Mandarin should be used first and displayed more prominently.)

尽管北京表示该法将保护所有官方认可的56个民族的传统，但其主要焦点似乎是将少数民族居民同化到占人口多数的汉族文化中。法律规定，普通话应作为学校教学和官方沟通的语言。（在同时使用两种语言的官方用语中，应当在位置、顺序等方面突出普通话。）

Under the new law, the authorities must guide citizens to have “correct views” on history, culture and religion and shed “outdated customs.” It also requires parents to “educate and guide children to love the Chinese Communist Party.” The law makes it illegal for anyone to oppose a marriage on ethnic or religious grounds and also calls for minority residents to live in mixed communities.

根据新法律，当局必须引导公民树立“正确”的历史观、文化观和宗教观，并推动“移风易俗”。法律还要求家长“教育和引导未成年人热爱中国共产党”。该法规定，任何人以民族或宗教原因为由反对婚姻均为非法，并呼吁少数民族居民居住在混合社区。

2021年，新疆一所学校的音乐课，当时正值政府组织外国记者进行考察访问。

According to James Leibold, a professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne who focuses on China’s ethnic policies, the law marks the final “legal capstone” in Mr. Xi’s hard-line approach toward the country’s hinterlands like Xinjiang and Tibet, where demands for greater autonomy have in the past erupted into protests and violence.

墨尔本拉筹伯大学关注中国民族政策的教授雷国俊(James Leibold)认为，这部法律标志着习近平对新疆和西藏等边疆地区采取强硬手段的最终“法律顶峰”。 这些地区过去曾因要求更大自治权而爆发抗议和暴力事件。

In those regions, government measures — which have included mass detentions of residents, forced political indoctrination, the separation of children from their families and suppressing population growth — have led to the erasure of minority languages, religious traditions and cultural norms, he said.

雷国俊表示，在这些地区，政府的措施——包括大规模拘禁居民、强制政治灌输、将儿童与家人分离以及抑制人口增长——已经导致了少数民族语言、宗教传统和文化规范遭到抹杀。

The ethnic unity law is now “mobilizing all aspects of the party, state and society to forge a single national consciousness,” Dr. Leibold said. “In Xi’s China, there is very little room left for diversity of culture, language, identity, or even thought.”

民族团结法正在“调动党、国家和社会的所有方面来锻造单一的国家意识，”雷国俊说。“在习近平统治下的中国，几乎没有给文化、语言、身份甚至思想的多样性留下空间。”

Even before Mr. Xi came to power, Chinese officials and intellectuals were debating whether decades of granting limited autonomy to minority regions had gone too far. After a string of attacks by Uyghurs — including in 2014 when a group armed with knives killed 31 people at a train station in the southwestern city of Kunming — Mr. Xi oversaw an intense security crackdown and a shift in the party’s ethnic policies.

早在习近平上台之前，中国的官员和知识分子就在辩论，几十年来给予少数民族地区有限自治权的政策是否走得太远。在一系列由维吾尔人发起的袭击后——包括2014年一群持刀袭击者在西南城市昆明的火车站杀害31人的事件——习近平主持了严厉的安全镇压，并转变了党的民族政策。

Officials restricted the use of minority languages in schools in Xinjiang and Tibet and other places where minority students had previously been able to choose their language of instruction. Until 2020, students in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region between China and Mongolia, could study mostly in Mongolian. The ban caused widespread protests that were quickly put down.

官员们限制了新疆、西藏等少数民族地区学校使用少数民族语言的权利，此前这些地区的少数民族学生可自主选择教学语言。直到2020年，位于中国与蒙古交界处的内蒙古自治区学生仍主要使用蒙古语学习。该禁令引发了广泛抗议，但很快被镇压。

上周全国人民代表大会期间，西藏代表团在会议上。

The new law formalizes and applies that language policy across the country. It also mandates that children must start learning the language before kindergarten, with the goal of having a “basic grasp” of it by the time they finish the nine years of compulsory education.

新法律使这种语言政策正式化，并在全国范围内推行。它还强制要求儿童在幼儿园之前就开始学习普通话，目标是在完成九年义务教育时能达到“基本掌握”水平。

The law, which requires local governments to support minority workers and students when they move elsewhere in China, is likely to accelerate official efforts to promote migration into and out of minority regions, which some experts see as diluting minority culture. The goal is to bind China’s minorities to the majority population, a relationship Mr. Xi has likened to that of a tree and its branches, where Chinese culture is the trunk and each ethnic group is a branch.

该法律要求地方政府支持少数民族务工者或学生搬迁到中国其他地方。这可能会加速官方推动少数民族地区人口的迁入与迁出，一些专家认为这会稀释少数民族文化。其目标是将中国的少数民族与多数民族捆绑在一起，习近平曾将这种关系比作树干与树枝：中华文化是主干，各民族文化是枝叶。

Beijing is focused on the “contact, exchange and blending” of different ethnic groups, according to Aaron Glasserman, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania who researches ethnic policy in China.

宾夕法尼亚大学研究中国民族政策的博士后学者亚伦·格拉斯曼表示，北京关注的是不同民族之间的“交往、交流、交融”。

“Xi’s preferred metaphor for China’s minorities is telling. He says they should be ‘packed tightly together like pomegranate seeds.’ That is, small, similar and red,” he said.

他说：“习近平对少数民族的比喻颇具深意。他说各民族应该‘像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一起’。也就是说：小巧、相似，而且是红色的。”

中国额尔古纳市靠近俄罗斯边境处，一座石榴雕塑矗立于此。其后镌刻着习近平的箴言：“促进各民族像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一起。”

Dr. Glasserman said the new law demonstrates the government’s confidence in its methods in Xinjiang and Tibet, despite criticism from international rights groups. It also empowers the authorities to pursue groups and people outside of China seen as undermining national unity or inciting ethnic division.

格拉斯曼说，尽管国际人权组织提出批评，新法律仍彰显了政府对其在新疆和西藏治理方式的信心。该法还赋予当局权力，可追查被视为破坏国家统一或煽动民族分裂的中国境外团体及个人。

Chinese officials last year pressured a museum in Thailand to remove the names and works of four Uyghur, Tibetan and Hong Kong artists. The police last year detained an overseas Chinese student advocating for Tibetans, Tara Zhang Yadi, on suspicion of separatism, according to a group advocating for her release.

去年，中国官员向泰国的一家博物馆施压，要求撤下四名维吾尔、藏族和香港艺术家的名字及作品。警方去年以涉嫌分裂国家罪逮捕了一名支持西藏的海外中国留学生张雅笛，消息由一个倡导释放她的组织提供。

“Now the Chinese government is demanding this ideological uniformity not only within its territory but also abroad,” said Yalkun Uluyol, a China researcher at Human Rights Watch. “That is what you call transnational repression.”

“现在中国政府不仅要求境内思想的统一，还将这种要求延伸到境外，”人权观察组织的中国研究员亚力坤·乌鲁尧勒表示。“这就是所谓的跨国镇压。”

The Trump administration is expected to initiate a sweeping trade investigation as soon as Thursday that will target dozens of countries over their policies toward the trade in goods made with forced labor.

特朗普政府最早可能于周四启动一项广泛的贸易调查，矛头将指向数十个国家，涉及这些国家对使用强迫劳动生产的商品方面的贸易政策。

The inquiry is part of an effort by the Trump administration to resurrect a global system of tariffs after President Trump’s first attempt was struck down by the Supreme Court last month. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced another major trade investigation that could lead to tariffs, focusing on excess production in the factory sectors of 16 major trading partners.

这项调查是特朗普政府试图恢复一套全球关税体系的一部分。上个月，特朗普最初推动的关税方案被最高法院否决。周三，特朗普政府宣布了另一项可能导致加征关税的重大贸易调查，重点针对16个主要贸易伙伴制造业领域的产能过剩问题。

The United States has banned imports of goods made with forced labor for nearly a century. Under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the United States passed a law that greatly expanded that scope. The United States forbids the import of any goods from the Xinjiang region of China, where accusations of forced labor have been rampant, unless importers provide documentation that their goods were made without it.

美国禁止进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品已有近一个世纪的历史。在拜登执政期间，美国通过了一项法律，大幅扩大了这一禁令的范围。美国禁止进口来自中国新疆地区的任何商品——该地区长期被指存在强迫劳动问题——除非进口商能够提供文件证明这些商品并非由强迫劳动生产。

The trade agreements that the Trump administration has forged with dozens of countries in recent months have also forced other countries to make commitments not to import goods made with forced labor.

特朗普政府近几个月与数十个国家达成的贸易协议也迫使其他国家承诺不进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品。

Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said on Wednesday that the forced labor investigation would cover 60 countries and focus on the laws countries use to regulate the trade of goods made with forced labor, not their domestic situations.

美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周三表示，强迫劳动调查将涵盖60个国家，重点关注各国用于监管强迫劳动商品贸易的法律，而不是这些国家国内的具体情况。

He said that the U.S. government had enforced its ban on forced labor goods “quite effectively.” He added, “we expect other trading partners to take this approach as well.”

他表示，美国政府“相当有效地”执行了强迫劳动商品禁令。他还说：“我们期望其他贸易伙伴也采取这种做法。”

The investigation is one of several that the Office of the United States Trade Representative is pursuing in an effort to set up a durable system of global tariffs by this summer. The administration has also proposed potential investigations into digital services taxes, pharmaceutical pricing and unfair trade in sectors like rice and seafood.

这项调查是美国贸易代表办公室正在推进的多项调查之一，目的是在今年夏天前建立一套更为持久的全球关税体系。政府还提出，可能就数字服务税、药品定价，以及大米和海产品等领域的不公平贸易展开调查。

The investigations are being carried out under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law that allows the United States to impose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices.

这些调查依据《1974年贸易法》第301条款进行，该法允许美国针对不公平贸易行为征收关税。

Administration officials have not clarified how high the new levies could be, or how the patchwork of investigations would apply to each country. They have said they would try to replicate their previous tariff structure, which was struck down after the Supreme Court ruled in February that Mr. Trump was not justified in using an emergency law to impose the tariffs.

政府官员尚未说明新关税可能有多高，也没有解释这一系列调查将如何具体适用于各个国家。他们表示，希望尽量复制此前的关税结构——但那一套关税在今年2月被最高法院否决，因为法院裁定特朗普无权以紧急法为依据实施这些关税。

Immediately after the ruling, Mr. Trump issued a new 10 percent global tariff under a different legal authority. He has threatened to increase those tariffs to 15 percent, but that has not yet gone into effect. But that tariff is time-limited, and is set to expire in July unless Congress votes to renew it.

裁决后，特朗普立即根据另一项法律授权，宣布对全球征收10%的新关税。他曾威胁要将这些关税提高至15%，但尚未实施。然而，这项关税是有时限的，除非国会投票延长，否则将于今年7月到期。

The new Section 301 investigations are likely to be much more durable, though the administration is required to carry out an investigation and hearings before they can be imposed.

新的301条款调查可能会持久得多，不过政府需要在征收关税前进行调查和举行听证会。

The new raft of investigations has caused frustration and angst among some trading partners, who are wondering how their businesses and economies will ultimately be affected. The executive arm of the European Union, which was included in the “excess capacity” investigation announced Wednesday, said on Thursday that it was seeking clarity on how the moves would affect the trade deal it had made with the United States.

这一系列新的调查已经引起一些贸易伙伴的不满和担忧，他们不清楚自己的企业和经济最终会受到怎样的影响。周三被列入“产能过剩”调查的欧盟执行机构周四表示，对于这些举措将如何影响其与美国达成的贸易协议，他们正在寻求澄清。

“We can only reiterate our expectation that the U.S. fully honor its commitments reflected in the E.U.-U.S. joint statement on this topic,” said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, the E.U. executive arm. He said that the European Union “would respond firmly and proportionately” to any breach of those commitments.

“我们只能再次重申我们的期望，即美国完全履行其在欧盟-美国联合声明中就这一问题所作的承诺，”欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会的发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示。他说，欧盟将对任何违反这些承诺的行为“作出坚定且相称的反应”。

He added that the European Union was a market-driven economy that did not consider itself a contributor to excess capacity, an issue that economists and policymakers typically link with China. Like the United States, the European Union has been struggling to cope with a flood of cheap Chinese cars and other exports.

他还表示，欧盟是市场驱动型经济体，不认为自己是造成产能过剩的因素——这一问题通常被经济学家和政策制定者与中国联系在一起。与美国一样，欧盟一直在努力应对大量廉价中国汽车和其他出口产品的冲击。

“The European Union shares the United States’ concern regarding structural overcapacity in the global economy,” Mr. Gill said. “However, the sources of such overcapacity are well identified, and they do not lie in Europe.”

“欧盟与美国一样，对全球经济中的结构性产能过剩感到担忧，”吉尔表示。“但造成这种产能过剩的来源是明确的，而这些来源并不在欧洲。”

In remarks to reporters Wednesday, Mr. Greer was unsympathetic, saying that the European Union had done “approximately zero percent” of what it was supposed to do to finalize its trade deal with the United States. He said that the European Union had legislation pending that would make promised changes to their tariffs for many months, and that there were a variety of other trade barriers where Europe had not taken action.

格里尔周三对记者发表讲话时并未表现出同情，他表示欧盟在完成与美国的贸易协定方面，其应做的工作只完成了“大约百分之零”。他说，欧盟有待通过的立法将使承诺的关税调整拖延数月之久，而且欧洲在其他各种贸易壁垒问题上也未采取行动。

“We’re still waiting for Europe to do a lot of what it promised,” he said.

“我们仍在等待欧洲履行其承诺的许多事项，”他说。

The investigations are also likely to rankle Chinese officials, who are busily preparing for Mr. Trump to travel to Beijing at the end of the month for a meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

这些调查可能也会激怒中国官员，他们正在忙着为特朗普月底前往北京与中国领导人习近平会晤做准备。

In a news conference on Thursday, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that China opposed unilateral tariffs and other restrictions. He called “overcapacity” a false premise and a “pretext for political manipulation.”

在周四的新闻发布会上，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，中国反对单边关税和其他限制措施。他称所谓的“产能过剩”是一个伪命题，是“政治操弄的借口”。

While some organizations that support domestic manufacturing and tariffs have praised the administration’s new investigations, others that depend on global supply chains expressed concern.

虽然一些支持国内制造业和关税的组织对政府的新调查表示赞赏，但那些依赖全球供应链的组织则表达了担忧。

Stephen Lamar, the president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, said that his group was discouraged by the proposed tariffs and that the administration should slow down and work with various stakeholders, including Congress. He likened the process to the administration trying to “glue together shattered glass in a messy fix that risks American businesses and consumers left holding the sharp edges.”

美国服装与鞋类协会会长斯蒂芬·拉马尔表示，拟议中的关税措施让其组织感到失望，并认为政府应该放慢节奏，与包括国会在内的各方利益相关者合作。他把这一过程比作政府试图“把碎裂的玻璃粘在一起，修补得一团糟，最后扎手的可能还是美国企业和消费者”。

“We understand the administration is hurriedly trying to recreate the tariff rates it had sought to establish under a scheme now deemed illegal by the Supreme Court,” he said. “In this effort, the process increasingly feels like answers in search of an investigation rather than an investigation in search of answers.”

他说：“我们理解政府正急于恢复此前试图建立的一套关税税率体系，但那一方案如今已被最高法院认定为非法。在这一过程中，整个做法越来越像是先有答案再去做调查来证明，而不是通过调查寻找答案。”

When the Chinese government gathered this month for its biggest political meeting of the year, it laid out big ambitions. It will keep boosting military spending. It will work to dominate artificial intelligence. It will reinforce its manufacturing prowess.

本月为年度最大的政治会议聚集在一起时，中国政府勾勒出了宏大的雄心。它将继续增加军费开支。它将努力主导人工智能领域。它将强化其制造业实力。

But when it comes to some of the country’s most vulnerable citizens, the plan is decidedly less lofty. The government said it would increase the minimum basic pension for rural residents by 20 yuan a month, or less than $3, to a grand total of about $24 a month.

但在涉及该国一些最脆弱的公民时，计划显然没那么远大。政府表示，将把农村居民的基础养老金最低标准每月提高20元，即不到3美元，使总额达到每月163元。

The promised increase is so meager that it has prompted widespread calls for more — even from representatives to China’s rubber-stamp legislature who usually spend their annual meeting praising Beijing’s plans.

这一承诺的增幅是如此微薄，以至于引发了要求增加的广泛呼声——甚至包括中国的橡皮图章立法机构的代表们，他们通常在这场年度会议上都在赞美北京的计划。

“This is just too unfair to farmers,” Guo Fenglian, a representative and village leader who was once praised by Mao as a model worker, told a Chinese reporter at the weeklong legislative meeting in Beijing that ended Thursday.

“对农民有点太亏了，”全国人大代表、曾被毛泽东赞誉为劳动模范的村干部郭凤莲在周四结束的为期一周的北京立法会议上告诉一名中国记者。

Ms. Guo described seeing farmers in their 80s or 90s still working in the fields, sometimes with canes or stooped backs. “They’re already very old and don’t have the physical ability to work anymore. But the cost of living is high,” she said, according to the Workers’ Daily, a Communist Party publication.

郭女士描述了她看到八九十岁的农民仍在田间劳作，有时拄着拐杖或弓着背。“他们已经很老了，已经失去了体力劳动的能动性。但是生活的成本也很高，”据共产党刊物《工人日报》报道，她这样说道。

For many Chinese farmers, the payments are far from enough to live on. The average older rural resident spends about $80 a month on routine expenses, according to a government report published in 2024. About 180 million people receive the rural pension, a cohort that is set to grow as China’s population ages rapidly. (The pension also covers urban residents without salaried work, but the vast majority of recipients are farmers.)

对于许多中国农民来说，这笔支出远不足以维持生活。根据2024年发布的一份政府报告，农村老年人平均每月在常规支出上花费约80美元。约有1.8亿人领取农村养老金，随着中国人口迅速老龄化，这一群体还将继续增长。（该养老金也覆盖没有受薪工作的城镇居民，但绝大多数领取者是农民。）

The paltriness of the pension is one of the clearest examples of the vast inequalities in China’s economy, and the deep-rooted challenges that are often overshadowed by its much-touted progress in high-tech fields. While the country leads the world in sectors like robotics or electric vehicles, many of the workers who powered China’s economic rise, such as farmers and workers in low-end manufacturing, are suffering from stagnating wages and cutthroat competition.

养老金的微薄是中国经济巨大不平等的明证之一，也是一个根深蒂固的挑战，而这些挑战往往被其在高科技领域备受赞誉的进步所掩盖。虽然在机器人或电动汽车等行业领先世界，但许多助力中国经济崛起的劳动者，如农民和低端制造业工人，正深受工资停滞和残酷竞争之苦。

Despite its socialist billing, China has a threadbare social safety net; the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has warned against the dangers of “welfarism.”

尽管标榜社会主义，中国的社会安全网却很薄弱；该国最高领导人习近平曾警告过“福利主义”的危险。

Rural residents have also long had far fewer benefits than their urban counterparts. While the average actual payout for rural pensioners is about 246 yuan, or $36, a month, retirees in cities receive on average almost 16 times more, or about $560 a month, according to the government’s 2025 Labor Statistical Yearbook. Retired officials get even more, on average $940 a month.

而长期以来，农村居民享有的福利也远少于城镇居民。根据政府的2025年《中国劳动统计年鉴》，农村养老金的实际发放额为246元（约合36美元），但城市退休人员平均领取的金额几乎是其16倍，即每月约560美元(人民币3800多元)。退休官员得到的更多，平均每月940美元（人民币近6000元）。

Zhou Shihong, a lawyer who is a member of a government advisory body, suggested the government work to close the disparity.

作为政府咨询机构成员的律师周世虹建议政府努力消除这种差距。

“If it relates to government funding or state subsidies, social security should be provided equally to everybody,” he told Chinese media, adding that the government should strive to raise the rural pension to $145 a month by 2030.

“凡是涉及到国家出资或者国家财政补贴，对每个人的社会保障应该是人人均等的，”他告诉中国媒体，并补充说，政府应努力在2030年前将农村养老金提高到1000元。

Indeed, the delegates’ calls for higher pensions were striking largely for their modesty. Some called for a rise to 500 yuan, or $70, a month. That increase, for farmers over 70, would cost less than 1 percent of the country’s budget for general public expenditures, one lawmaker pointed out.

事实上，代表们提高养老金的呼吁之所以引人注目，很大程度上是因为这是个十分克制的诉求。一些人呼吁将金额提高到每月500元（约70美元）。一位立法者指出，对于70岁以上的农民来说，这一增幅所耗费的成本不到该国一般公共预算支出的1%。

周一，在北京参加全国人民代表大会的代表们。

Much of the discussion online has been supportive of calls for more money for rural pensioners.

网络上的许多讨论都支持为农村养老金领取者提供更多资金的呼吁。

But some delegates have sounded notes of caution. The president of a major Chinese electronic appliance company said that even a seemingly small increase would add up quickly. Major state media outlets have largely been silent on the outcry.

但一些代表发出了谨慎的声音。一家中国大型家电公司的总裁表示，即使是看似很小的增幅也会迅速累积。主要的官方媒体对这些抗议声大多保持沉默。

China’s finance minister, in an unrelated news conference last week, acknowledged the importance of ensuring people’s livelihoods but also said that the country’s revenue was “under pressure” and called for reducing expenditures. A slow-moving housing market crash has hurt local government revenues, which rely heavily on land sales.

中国财政部长在上周的一次无关的新闻发布会上承认了确保民生的重要性，但也表示该国的财政收入“承压”，并要求减少开支。房地产市场的缓慢崩盘损害了地方政府的收入，而后者严重依赖土地出售。

Proponents of higher pensions said that with more money, residents would be willing to spend more, which in turn would help the government meet a major goal of increasing domestic demand.

提高养老金的支持者表示，有了更多的钱，居民将愿意花更多的钱，这反过来将有助于政府实现增加国内需求的主要目标。

For many, though, the main argument was more moral than pragmatic. China’s farmers had helped build the country, they said, when Mao-era policies required them to sell their crops for artificially low prices, turn their land over to the state and pay agricultural taxes.

然而，对许多人来说，主要的论据与其说是务实的，不如说是道德上的。他们说，中国的农民曾帮助建设了这个国家，当时毛泽东时代的政策要求他们以人为压低的价格出售农作物，将土地交给国家并缴纳农业税。

They acknowledged that urban residents pay more into the pension system than rural residents do, but said the system did not account for the farmers’ historic contributions.

他们承认，城镇居民向养老系统缴纳的费用比农村居民多，但他们表示，该系统没有考虑到农民的历史贡献。

“These contributions cannot be measured by simple payment records,” a commentary in China Business Network, a Shanghai-based media outlet, said. “Increasing farmers’ pensions is not about providing them with welfare, but rather about paying back a debt.”

“这些贡献不能通过简单的缴费记录来衡量，”上海媒体《第一财经》的一篇评论称。“给农民涨养老金不是给农民发福利，而是在还账。”

A summit between President Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that could extend their countries’ trade truce is less than three weeks away, yet a cloud of uncertainty hangs over it.

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平之间可能延长两国贸易休战状态的峰会还有不到三周就要举行，但其前景仍笼罩着不确定性的阴云。

Chinese officials are frustrated by a lack of details from the White House about Mr. Trump’s agenda and what deals the two sides could agree on, Chinese analysts say. American business leaders, for their part, don’t know if they are being invited to join the U.S. president.

中国分析人士表示，白宫迟迟不提供特朗普的议程细节以及双方可能达成的协议，中国官员感到挫败。美国商界领袖则表示，他们尚不清楚是否会被邀请随同总统出行。

To some extent, that may be just what dealing with Mr. Trump looks like. He prizes being unpredictable and has said he thinks keeping the other side off balance is the secret to winning. The Chinese government, on the other hand, likes to script every detail of meetings with Mr. Xi well in advance.

在某种程度上，这或许正是与特朗普打交道的常态。他推崇不可预测性，并曾表示他认为让对方摸不着头脑是获胜的秘诀。相比之下，中国政府则习惯提前很久就为与习近平的会晤拟定每一个细节。

“Usually, planning for this kind of visit would start months ahead. But this time, it started very late and it’s still very much in progress,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, who last year was among a group of Chinese scholars attending unofficial talks in the United States.

“通常情况下，这种访问的规划会在几个月前开始。但这一次启动得很晚，而且目前仍处于推进过程中，”复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示。去年，他曾作为中国学者代表团的一员赴美参加非官方会谈。

“We still don’t know what this visit will achieve,” he said.

他说：“我们仍然不知道这次访问将取得什么成果。”

That includes what commercial deals may be announced during the visit and what else Mr. Trump wants to do, Mr. Wu said. Some of these questions might be ironed out when Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China meet in Paris later this week.

吴心伯表示，这包括访问期间可能宣布哪些商业交易，以及特朗普希望达成的其他事项。其中一些问题可能会在本周晚些时候美国财政部长贝森特与中国副总理何立峰在巴黎会面时得到解决。

Concerns about the summit, which the White House says will be from March 31 to April 2, are also being aired in the United States. On Tuesday, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council, Sean Stein, said that the White House had yet to invite any business leaders to travel with him.

白宫称这次峰会将于3月31日至4月2日举行，而美国国内也传出了对此次峰会的担忧。周二，美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森(Sean Stein)表示，白宫尚未邀请任何商界领袖随行。

美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森今年1月在华盛顿特区出席活动。

World leaders are often accompanied by chief executives on visits to China, in a reflection of the importance of the Chinese economy. Last month, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany traveled to Beijing with roughly 30 executives; in January, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain took nearly 60 businesspeople. Mr. Trump himself brought executives with him in 2017 during his first presidential term.

世界领导人访问中国时通常会有首席执行官随行，这反映了中国经济的重要性。上个月，德国总理默茨率领约30名高管访问北京；今年1月，英国首相斯塔默带去了近60名商界人士。特朗普自己在2017年首个总统任期访华时也曾带企业高管随行。

“It’s hard to imagine the president is not going to want to have a robust delegation,” Mr. Stein said. “But so far, again, invitations haven’t gone out.”

“很难想象总统会不希望带一支强大的代表团，”谭森说。“但到目前为止，邀请函确实还没有发出。”

Mr. Stein said his understanding was that the Trump administration had not yet made a decision about whether chief executives should accompany the president.

谭森表示，据他了解，特朗普政府尚未决定是否安排企业高管随行。

A White House spokesman said that the administration intended to extend invitations when appropriate. It was normal for the United States not to have extended invitations yet, he said. On the goals for the summit, the spokesman said that neither side had yet revealed specifics.

白宫发言人表示，政府打算在适当时机发出邀请。他说，美国尚未发出邀请是正常的。至于峰会的目标，该发言人表示双方目前均未透露具体细节。

The U.S.-China relationship has largely been focused on maintaining stability, after a trade clash last year sent the relationship into a free fall. Mr. Trump’s steep global tariffs prompted the Chinese to cut off purchases of U.S. soybeans and clamp down on exports of rare earth minerals needed by American factories.

在去年的贸易冲突导致两国关系直线下跌后，目前两国主要聚焦于维持稳定。特朗普征收的高额全球关税促使中方切断了对美国大豆的采购，并限制美国工厂所需的稀土矿产出口。

Mr. Trump met Mr. Xi in South Korea in October, when they agreed on a yearlong trade truce. American officials have since said that the two leaders are expected to meet as many as four times this year.

特朗普去年10月在韩国与习近平会面，当时双方达成了一项为期一年的贸易战停火协议。美国官员此后表示，预计两位领导人今年将进行多达四次的会晤。

习近平主席的专车在10月釜山与特朗普会晤期间停在空军一号附近。

U.S. business leaders have been pressing for a more ambitious agenda that would try to open Chinese markets and remove impediments to businesses seeking to operate there. That includes obtaining approvals for U.S. crops grown with genetically modified seeds, U.S. pharmaceutical exports, and pending licenses for financial services companies.

美国商界领袖一直向政府施压，要求制定更宏大的议程，推动中国市场的开放，消除企业在华经营的障碍。这包括为美国转基因种子农产品、美国药品出口，以及金融服务公司待批牌照争取到批准。

China has yet to confirm the dates of the summit, but that is in line with its standard practice. Still, the country’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, struck a positive note at a news briefing last week.

中国尚未确认峰会的日期，但这符合其惯常做法。尽管如此，中国最高外交官王毅在上周的新闻发布会上表达了积极的态度。

“This year is a big year for China-U.S. relations,” Mr. Wang said. “The agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table.”

“今年是中美关系的‘大年’，高层交往的议程已经摆在我们的桌面上，”王毅说。

The comments suggested plans had not been derailed by the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, one of China’s strategic partners.

这样的言论表明，中国战略伙伴之一伊朗遭美以袭击事件并未打乱中美之间的计划。

Mr. Wang hinted, though, that the Trump administration should not do anything to antagonize China that could jeopardize the meeting, saying both sides should “manage the risks that do exist and remove unnecessary disruptions.” Mr. Trump has already delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi ahead of the summit.

不过，王毅暗示，特朗普政府不应做任何可能危害会晤的挑衅中国行为，称双方应“管控存在的风险，排除不必要的干扰”。 为避免在峰会前激怒习近平，特朗普已推迟宣布向台湾（北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿）出售武器的计划。

Mr. Wu of Fudan University said he doubted that China would lavish Mr. Trump with as much pomp and circumstance as they had on his first trip, when Mr. Xi took him on a personal tour of the Forbidden City. Just months after that, Mr. Trump launched his first trade war with China.

复旦大学的吴心伯表示，他怀疑中国是否还会像特朗普第一次访华时那样，给予他极其隆重的礼遇，当时习近平曾亲自陪同他参观故宫。就在那次访问几个月后，特朗普发起了对华的第一场贸易战。

“I’m not sure China is going to provide this kind of treatment for him again,” Mr. Wu said. “No matter how well you treat him, you cannot prevent him from changing his mind.”

“我不确定中国是否会再一次给他这种待遇，”吴心伯说。“不管你对他多好，都无法阻止他改变主意。”

On Feb. 18, as President Trump weighed whether to launch military attacks on Iran, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told an interviewer he was not concerned that the looming war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.

2月18日，就在特朗普总统权衡是否对伊朗发动军事打击时，能源部长克里斯·赖特在接受采访时表示，他并不担心迫在眉睫的战争会扰乱中东的石油供应并对能源市场造成破坏。

Even during the Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran last June, Mr. Wright said, there had been little disruption in the markets. “Oil prices blipped up and then went back down,” he said. Some of Mr. Trump’s other advisers shared similar views in private, dismissing warnings that — the second time around — Iran might wage economic warfare by closing shipping lanes carrying roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.

赖特表示，即使在去年6月以色列和美国对伊朗进行打击期间，市场也几乎没有受到干扰。他说：“油价只是有小幅跳升，然后就回落了。”特朗普的其他一些顾问在私下里也持有类似观点，他们对相关警告不屑一顾——这些警告称，在第二次冲突中，伊朗可能会通过关闭承载全球约20%石油供应的航道来发动经济战。

The extent of that miscalculation was laid bare in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf. In response to the Iranian threats, commercial shipping has come to a standstill in the Gulf, oil prices have spiked, and the Trump administration has scrambled to find ways to tamp down an economic crisis that has triggered higher gasoline prices for Americans.

这种误判的严重程度在近日暴露无遗。随着伊朗威胁要向通过霍尔木兹海峡的商业油轮开火（霍尔木兹海峡是所有船只进出波斯湾必须经过的战略咽喉），海湾地区的商业航运应声陷入停滞，油价飙升，特朗普政府正焦头烂额地寻找方法，以平息这场已导致美国汽油价格上涨的经济危机。

The episode is emblematic of how much Mr. Trump and his advisers misjudged how Iran would respond to a conflict that the government in Tehran sees as an existential threat. Iran has responded far more aggressively than it did during last June’s 12-day war, firing barrages of missiles and drones at U.S. military bases, cities in Arab nations across the Middle East, and on Israeli population centers.

这一事件典型地反映了特朗普及其顾问如何严重低估了伊朗对这场冲突的反应，德黑兰政府将其视为生存威胁。伊朗的反应远比去年6月那场为期12天的战争要激烈得多，他们向美国军事基地、中东各地的阿拉伯城市以及以色列的人口中心发射了大量导弹和无人机。

U.S. officials have had to adjust plans on the fly, from hastily ordering the evacuation of embassies to developing policy proposals to reduce gas prices.

美国官员不得不临时调整计划，从紧急下令撤离大使馆，到制定降低油价的政策建议。

After Trump administration officials gave a closed-door briefing to lawmakers on Tuesday, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, said on social media that the administration had no plan for the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open.”

在特朗普政府官员周二向立法者进行闭门简报后，康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯托弗·S·墨菲在社交媒体上表示，政府对霍尔木兹海峡没有计划，且“不知道如何安全地恢复通航”。

Inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war. But they have been careful not to express that directly to the president, who has repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete success.

在政府内部，一些官员对于缺乏明确的结束战争的战略越来越感到悲观。但他们一直小心翼翼，不敢直接向总统表达这一点，因为总统反复宣称这次军事行动取得了圆满成功。

Mr. Trump has laid out maximalist goals like insisting that Iran name a leader who will submit to him, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have described narrower and more tactical objectives that could provide an off-ramp in the near term.

特朗普提出了一些宏大的目标，比如坚持要求伊朗任命一位顺从他的领导人；而国务卿马可·鲁比奥和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯则描述了更狭窄、更具战术性的目标，这可能在短期内提供一个“退坡”机制。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “had a strong game plan” before the war broke out, and vowed that oil prices would drop after it ended.

白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，政府在战争爆发前制定了一个“强大的作战方案”，并誓言油价将在战争结束后下跌。

“The purposeful disruption in the oil market by the Iranian regime is short term, and necessary for the long-term gain of wiping out these terrorists and the threat they pose to America and the world,” she said in a statement.

她在一份声明中说：“伊朗政权蓄意扰乱石油市场是短期的，对于消除这些恐怖分子及其对美国和世界构成的威胁这一长期利益来说，这是必要的。”

This article is based on interviews with a dozen U.S. officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss private conversations.

本文基于对十几名美国官员的采访，由于涉及私下对话，他们要求匿名。

白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，在战争爆发前，政府就已制定了“强大的作战方案”。

‘Show Some Guts’

“拿出点胆量来”

Mr. Hegseth acknowledged on Tuesday that Iran’s ferocious response against its neighbors caught the Pentagon somewhat off guard. But he insisted that Iran’s actions were backfiring.

海格塞斯周二承认，伊朗对其邻国的凶猛反应令五角大楼有些措手不及。但他坚称，其行为的效果适得其反。

“I can’t say that we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react, but we knew it was a possibility,” Mr. Hegseth said at a Pentagon news conference. “I think it was a demonstration of the desperation of the regime.”

“我不能说我们预料到了他们一定会做出这种反应，但我们知道有这种可能性，”海格塞斯在五角大楼的新闻发布会上说。“我认为这反映了该政权的绝望。”

Mr. Trump has displayed growing frustration over how the war is disrupting the oil supply, telling Fox News that oil tanker crews should “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

特朗普日益表现出对战争扰乱石油供应的不满，他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，油轮船员应该“拿出点胆量来”，驶过霍尔木兹海峡。

Some military advisers did warn before the war that Iran could launch an aggressive campaign in response, and would view the U.S.-Israeli attack as a threat to its existence. But other advisers remained confident that killing Iran’s senior leadership would lead to more pragmatic leaders taking over who might bring an end to the war.

一些军事顾问在战前确实警告过，伊朗可能会发起剧烈的反击，并将美以的攻击视为对其生存的威胁。但其他顾问仍然信心十足，认为除掉伊朗的高层领导将导致更务实的领导人接权，从而可能结束战争。

When Mr. Trump was briefed about risks that oil prices could rise in the event of war, he acknowledged the possibility but downplayed it as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime. He directed Mr. Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to work on developing options for a potential spike in prices.

当特朗普听取关于战争可能导致油价上涨的风险简报时，他承认了这种可能性，但将其淡化为短期担忧，不应因此盖过“斩首”伊朗政权任务的成功。他指示赖特和财政部长斯科特·贝森特针对潜在的价格飙升制定对策。

But the president did not speak publicly about these options — including political risk insurance backed by the U.S. government, and the potential of U.S. Navy escorts — until more than 48 hours after the conflict started. The escorts have not yet taken place.

但直到冲突爆发48小时后，总统才公开谈论这些选项——包括由美国政府支持的政治风险保险，以及美国海军护航的可能性。目前护航行动尚未实施。

As the conflict has roiled global markets, Republicans in Washington have grown concerned about rising oil prices damaging their efforts to sell an economic agenda to voters ahead of the midterm elections.

随着冲突扰乱全球市场，华盛顿的共和党人越来越担心油价上涨会损害他们在国会中期选举前向选民推销经济议程的努力。

Mr. Trump, both publicly and privately, has been arguing that Venezuelan oil could help solve any shocks coming from the Iran war. The administration announced on Tuesday a new refinery in Texas that officials said could help increase oil supply, ensuring that Iran does not cause any long-term damage to oil markets.

特朗普在公开和私下场合都一直在争辩说，委内瑞拉的石油可以帮助缓解伊朗战争带来的任何冲击。政府周二宣布在得克萨斯州建立一家新炼油厂，官员们表示这有助于增加石油供应，确保伊朗不会对石油市场造成任何长期损害。

A Potential Off-Ramp

潜在的退坡机制

Mr. Trump has said both that the war could go on for more than a month and that it was “very complete, pretty much.” He also said the United States would “go forward more determined than ever.”

特朗普既说过战争可能会持续一个月以上，又说过战争已经“非常彻底，基本上是这样”。他还表示美国将“比以往任何时候都更加坚定地前进”。

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Hegseth, however, appear to have coordinated their messaging for now on three discrete goals that they began laying out in public remarks on Monday and Tuesday.

然而，鲁比奥和海格塞斯目前的口径似乎达成了一致，集中在他们在周一和周二的公开讲话中开始列出的三个具体目标上。

“The goals of this mission are clear,” Mr. Rubio said at a State Department event on Monday before Mr. Trump held his own news conference. “It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers; destroy the factories that make these missiles; and destroy their navy.”

“这次任务的目标很明确，”鲁比奥周一在特朗普举行自己的新闻发布会之前，在国务院的一次活动中说。“那就是摧毁该政权发射导弹的能力，包括摧毁他们的导弹和发射器；摧毁制造这些导弹的工厂；并摧毁他们的海军。”

The State Department even laid out the three goals in bullet-point fashion, and highlighted a video clip of Mr. Rubio stating them on an official social media account.

国务院甚至以项目符号列表形式列出了这三个目标，并在官方社交媒体账号上重点展示了鲁比奥阐述这些目标的视频片段。

特朗普曾既表示过这场战争可能会持续一个月以上，又表示过战争已经“非常彻底，基本上是这样”。

The presentation by Mr. Rubio, who is also the White House national security adviser, appeared to be setting the stage for the president to bring an end to the war sooner rather than later. In his news conference, Mr. Trump boasted of how the U.S. military had already destroyed Iran’s ballistic missile capability and its navy. But he also warned of even more aggressive action if Iranian leaders tried to cut off the world’s energy supply.

同时也是白宫国家安全顾问的鲁比奥做出的这番表述似乎是在为总统尽早结束战争铺路。在新闻发布会上，特朗普夸耀美国军方已经摧毁了伊朗的弹道导弹能力和海军。但他也警告说，如果伊朗领导人试图切断世界的能源供应，美方将采取更激烈的行动。

Matthew Pottinger, who was a deputy national security adviser in the first Trump administration, said in an interview that Mr. Trump had indicated he could decide to pursue ambitious war goals that would take weeks at least.

第一届特朗普政府的副国家安全顾问博明(Matthew Pottinger)在接受采访时表示，从特朗普的言论来看，他可能会决定追求需要至少数周时间才能实现的宏大战争目标。

“In his press conference, I could hear him circling back to a rationale for fighting a bit longer given that the regime is still signaling it won’t be deterred and is still trying to control the Strait of Hormuz,” said Mr. Pottinger, now the chair of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a group that advocates a close U.S. partnership with Israel and confrontation with Iran.

“在他的新闻发布会上，我能听出他正绕回到‘多打一段时间’的论证上，因为该政权仍在发出不会被慑服的信号，并仍试图控制霍尔木兹海峡，”博明说道。他目前是保卫民主基金会(FDD)中国项目的负责人，该组织主张美国与以色列建立紧密的伙伴关系并对抗伊朗。

“He doesn’t want to have to fight a ‘sequel’ war,” Mr. Pottinger added.

“他不希望到时候又要打一场‘续集’战争，”博明补充道。

Since President Trump launched a new war with Iran, he has portrayed it as a shock-and-awe assault with few lasting consequences, especially for Americans. On Monday in Florida, he called it a “brief disruption.”

自特朗普总统对伊朗发动新的战争以来，他始终将其描述为一场震慑式打击，几乎不会产生长期后果，对美国人而言尤其如此。周一在佛罗里达州，他称这场战争只是一次“短暂的干扰”。

Experts say it is rapidly becoming something else entirely: a jolt to the global security order and economy that far exceeds those delivered by other recent conflicts in the Middle East.

但专家表示，这场战争正迅速演变成完全不同的局面：它对全球安全秩序与经济的冲击，已远超近期中东其他冲突带来的影响。

Mr. Trump’s war, now nearly two weeks old, is already reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and strategic partnerships. Countries typically shielded from regional conflict, like Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates, have faced retaliatory Iranian fire. The fallout could disrupt midterm elections in the United States, tilt the war calculus in Ukraine and force China into a major economic pivot.

特朗普发动的这场战争持续了近两周，目前已在重塑旅行模式、能源依赖格局、生活成本、贸易航线与战略伙伴关系。塞浦路斯、阿联酋等以往不受地区冲突波及的国家也遭到了伊朗的报复性袭击。这场战争的连锁反应可能扰乱美国中期选举、改变乌克兰战场的博弈格局，并迫使中国做出重大经济战略调整。

Those effects may compound if Mr. Trump presses ahead with the war, particularly if Iran escalates its counterattacks and blocks ship traffic through the critical oil passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Some economists are already invoking a dreaded memory for any U.S. president — the specter of oil-shock-induced stagflation, with growth stalling and prices roaring upward.

如果特朗普继续推进战争，尤其是伊朗升级反击、封锁石油运输要道霍尔木兹海峡的航运，这些影响还会进一步叠加。部分经济学家提及一段令历任美国总统闻之色变的往事——石油冲击引发滞胀的阴霾，即经济增长停滞、物价大幅飙升的局面。

“I’m old enough to remember the events of the ’70s, and a world in which oil price spikes were a significant issue both economically and for a president who might be facing elections,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution. “That doesn’t seem to have been priced into the decision making,” she added.

“我这个年纪还记得70年代的那些事，当年油价飙升不仅是重大经济问题，对面临大选的总统而言也是大事，”布鲁金斯学会伊朗问题专家苏珊娜·马洛尼表示。“而这一点似乎并未被纳入本次决策的考量范围。”

周二北京某加油站。全球许多地区预计将在加油站率先感受到这场战争带来的影响。

The war is most immediately and viscerally affecting the Middle East. Attacks across the region have killed more than a thousand people and wrought extensive damage to critical infrastructure and the environment — unleashing plumes of noxious smoke and black rain over Tehran after Israeli strikes on fuel depots.

这场战争对中东的影响最为直接、最为深切。席卷整个地区的袭击已造成逾千人死亡，关键基础设施与生态环境遭到严重破坏——以色列空袭伊朗油库后，德黑兰上空弥漫着有毒浓烟，还降下了黑雨。

The conflict has shaken the foundation of the Persian Gulf economies, cracking their carefully cultivated images as safe havens in a turbulent region. Iran has launched more attacks on the Gulf countries than it has on Israel, according to an American war monitor, hitting five-star hotels, damaging desalination plants and sending tourists fleeing for evacuation routes.

这场冲突动摇了波斯湾各国经济的根基，击碎了它们精心打造的动荡地区安全避风港的形象。据美国一家战争监测机构统计，伊朗对海湾国家发动的袭击次数超过对以色列的袭击，目标包括五星级酒店、海水淡化厂，大批游客仓皇寻找撤离通道。

Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, have come under attack. European officials are still attempting to rescue their citizens who have been marooned in what once seemed like tranquil vacation spots. The U.S. State Department, after initially facing criticism for acting too slowly, said it had organized over two dozen charter flights and had evacuated thousands of Americans from the Middle East.

阿联酋迪拜和阿布扎比的机场均遭袭击。欧洲官员仍在设法营救滞留在这些昔日宁静度假胜地的本国公民。美国国务院最初因行动迟缓遭到批评，目前表示已组织20余架包机，从中东撤离了数千名美国公民。

Experts warn that reputational damage will linger in the Gulf. Beyond the wealth those countries possess, “the real currency was confidence,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in a panel discussion this week.

专家警告，海湾国家的声誉受损将长期持续。国际战略研究所中东问题专家埃米尔·霍卡耶姆本周在一场专题讨论会上表示，除了拥有的财富，这些国家“真正的硬通货是信心”。

“It wasn’t just the money, it’s the fact that they could realistically tell people it’s a good business environment, you will feel safe,” he added. “We’re immune to regional politics. You can invest here. You can use us for your trade, your airlines, for your comms, your tech and so on. And that’s what the Iranians are after, right?”

他还说：“关键不只是财富，而是它们能实实在在地告诉外界：这里营商环境良好，你们会感到安全。我们不受地区政局动荡影响。你们可以在这里投资，可以利用我们开展贸易、航空、通信、科技等业务。而这正是伊朗想要摧毁的，不是吗？”

周日，从阿联酋迪拜撤离的航班抵达坦桑尼亚后，乘客们陆续下机。

For much of the rest of the world, one of the first pains from the war was felt at the gasoline pump. When tankers stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on global markets, though they have receded somewhat in recent days. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Monday that his country would send 10 warships to the region, potentially to escort vessels through the strait.

对世界其他大多数地区而言，这场战争带来的首个阵痛体现在加油站。油轮暂停通行霍尔木兹海峡后，全球市场油价一度突破每桶100美元，尽管近日有所回落。法国总统马克龙周一表示，法国将向该地区派遣10艘军舰，或为穿越海峡的船只提供护航。

Trump administration officials and European leaders have explored options in recent days to reduce gasoline prices, which have risen along with the global price of oil. Economists have begun warning that if the oil shock persists for weeks, it could ignite an escalating set of price increases across economies, while weighing on economic growth — a fate similar to the stagflation that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution.

特朗普政府官员与欧洲各国领导人近日已在研究平抑汽油价格的方案，美国油价已随全球原油价格同步上涨。经济学家已发出警告：如果此次石油冲击持续数周，可能引发各经济体的物价全面持续攀升，同时拖累经济增长——这与1979年伊朗革命后出现的滞胀局面如出一辙。

“Whether history repeats itself all depends on how long this conflict lasts,” researchers at Deutsche Bank wrote this week.

“历史是否会重演完全取决于这场冲突持续多久，”德意志银行的研究人员本周在报告中写道。

The loss of access to cheap oil is an emerging risk for China — and not the only one. Chinese exporters have become increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern consumers. A disruption to Middle Eastern economies could limit sales of Chinese goods there, undercutting China’s own growth.

对中国而言，无法再获取廉价石油是一个正在显现的风险，但并非唯一风险。中国出口商对中东消费市场的依赖度日益提升，中东经济动荡可能抑制当地对中国商品的需求，进而冲击中国自身的经济增长。

The surge in oil prices is, conversely, helping Russia — by bolstering the oil revenues that help to fund Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine. Europeans are also worried that the heavy fighting in the Middle East will indirectly harm Ukrainian defenses: The more interceptor missiles are used by the United States and its allies to counter Iran, the fewer are available to Ukraine for its defense against Russian attacks.

反过来，油价飙升却让俄罗斯从中受益——石油收入增加，可以为莫斯科在乌克兰的战争机器提供更多资金。欧洲国家也担忧，中东的激烈战事将间接损害乌克兰的防御能力：美国及其盟友为拦截伊朗袭击消耗的拦截弹越多，能提供给乌克兰抵御俄罗斯进攻的弹药就越少。

周五空袭期间特拉维夫上空的景象。

In the United States, the war appears already to be a political liability for Mr. Trump. It has relatively little public support compared to previous wars. Democrats are seizing on rising energy costs to court voters ahead of midterm elections that were already focused on the rising cost of living.

在美国国内，这场战争显然已成为特朗普的政治包袱。与此前的历次战争相比，这场战争的民众支持率相对较低。中期选举的核心议题本就是生活成本不断上涨，民主党人正抓住能源价格攀升的问题争取选民。

More immediately, it has cast a shadow over an event Mr. Trump had hoped would be a signature American triumph under his presidency: the men’s soccer World Cup, which is set to kick off this summer in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Iran is one of the teams scheduled to compete. But it’s unclear if its team will be able to — and what might happen if it can’t.

更直接的是，这场战争给特朗普原本寄望成为其总统任期标志性胜利的盛事蒙上阴影：今年夏天将在美国、加拿大和墨西哥开赛的男足世界杯。伊朗是原定参赛的球队之一，但目前伊朗队能否参赛仍不明确，若它无法参赛，可能引发何种后果亦未可知。

Publicly, Mr. Trump has trumpeted the military might that the United States and Israel have poured into the war, while offering shifting explanations for what prompted the attacks on Iran and varying timelines for when it might end. He has acknowledged some costs of the war, including the American service members who have been killed since it began.

在公开场合，特朗普大肆宣扬美以为这场战争倾注的军事力量，但对发动对伊攻击的动机给出反复无常的解释，对战争何时结束也给出不同时间表。他也承认了战争带来的部分代价，包括开战以来阵亡的美军士兵。

The president has largely dismissed other downsides, like oil price increases, as temporary. He has alarmed allies by offering few concrete plans for how Iran’s government will function after the war.

对于油价上涨等其他负面影响，特朗普总统大多时候称其只是暂时现象，不予重视。他对战后伊朗政府如何运作几乎未提出具体方案，这令盟友深感不安。

In Europe, that has raised concerns of a cratering Iranian economy that could eventually drive new waves of migrants across the Iran-Turkey border. For Europeans, that summons memories of the continent’s migration crisis a decade ago, when conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and Africa led more than a million people to seek refuge in Europe, leading to a right-wing backlash in countries like Germany.

在欧洲，这引发了人们的担忧：伊朗经济若崩盘，最终可能引发新一波移民潮穿越伊土边境。对欧洲人而言，这唤起了十年前欧洲移民危机的记忆——当时中东与非洲的冲突和贫困导致超百万人前往欧洲寻求庇护，在德国等国引发了右翼势力的强烈反弹。

“The United States and Israel have been waging war against Iran for over a week. We share many of their goals,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany on Tuesday. “But with each day of the war, more questions arise. We are particularly concerned that there appears to be no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.”

德国总理默茨周二表示：“美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争已超过一周。我们与他们的诸多目标是一致的。但战争每持续一天，就会产生更多疑问。我们尤为担忧的是，目前各方似乎没有制定出共同方案，推动这场战争迅速、妥善地结束。”

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.

一项仍在进行中的军事调查已经认定，美国应对一次致命的“战斧”巡航导弹袭击伊朗一所小学并造成大量伤亡的事件负责。多名美国官员以及了解初步调查结果的人士透露了这一结论。

The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found. Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, people briefed on the investigation said.

初步调查发现，2月28日对沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学建筑的袭击是美军目标定位错误所致。当时美军正在对相邻的一处伊朗军事基地实施打击，而该小学建筑原为该基地的一部分。了解调查情况的人士称，美国中央司令部的军官使用了国防情报局提供的过时数据，制定了打击坐标。

Officials emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that there are important unanswered questions about why the outdated information had not been double checked.

官员们强调，这些结论仍属初步调查结果，目前仍有重要问题没有得到解答，例如为什么这些过时信息没有经过复核。

Striking a school full of children is sure to be recorded as one of the most devastating single military errors in recent decades. Iranian officials have said the death toll was at least 175 people, most of them children.

对一所满是儿童的学校发动打击无疑将被记录为近几十年来最严重的单次军事失误之一。伊朗官员称，死亡人数至少为175人，其中大多数是儿童。

While the overall finding was largely expected — the United States is the only country involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles — it has already cast a shadow on the U.S. military operation in Iran.

尽管总体调查结果基本在意料之中——美国是参与冲突中唯一使用“战斧”导弹的国家——但这一事件已经给美国在伊朗的军事行动蒙上阴影。

President Trump’s attempts to sidestep the blame for the strike have also already complicated the inquiry, leaving officials who have reviewed the findings showing U.S. culpability expressing unease. The people interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the ongoing investigation and Mr. Trump’s assertion at one point that Iran, not the United States, was responsible.

特朗普总统试图回避此次袭击责任的做法也已使调查变得棘手，让那些审阅了调查结果，看到美国负有责任的官员们感到不安。接受本文采访的人士均要求匿名，理由是调查仍在进行且情况敏感，而且特朗普一度声称应对此事负责的是伊朗，而非美国。

“As The New York Times acknowledges in its own reporting, the investigation is still ongoing,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement.

“正如《纽约时报》在自己的报道中所承认的那样，调查仍在进行中，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。

Asked about this article as he left the White House on Wednesday for a trip to promote his economic agenda in Ohio and Kentucky, Mr. Trump replied, “I don’t know about that.”

周三，特朗普在离开白宫前往俄亥俄州和肯塔基州宣传其经济议程时被问及这篇报道，他回答说：“我对此并不了解。”

People briefed on the investigation said many questions were yet to be answered around why outdated information was used and who failed to verify the data.

知情人士表示，调查人员仍在试图弄清许多问题，例如为什么会使用过时的信息，以及是谁未能核实这些数据。

Still, the error has not surprised current and former officials.

不过，这一失误并没有让现任和前任官员感到意外。

2月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前，工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。

The school, in the town of Minab, is on the same block as buildings used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy, a top target of the U.S. military strikes. The site of the school was originally part of the base. Officials briefed on the inquiry said the building was not always used as a school, though it is not clear precisely when the school opened on the site.

这所学校位于米纳卜市，与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军使用的一些建筑处在同一街区，而后者正是美军打击行动的首要目标之一。学校所在地原本是军事基地的一部分。了解调查情况的官员表示，这栋建筑并非一直用作学校，但目前尚不清楚学校具体何时在此开办。

A visual investigation by The Times showed the building housing the school had been fenced off from the military base between 2013 and 2016.

《纽约时报》通过影像分析发现，2013年至2016年之间，这栋用于学校的建筑已用围栏与军事基地隔开。

Satellite imagery reviewed by The Times showed that watchtowers that once stood near the building had been removed, three public entrances were opened to the school, ground was cleared and play areas including a sports field were painted on asphalt, and walls were painted blue and pink.

《纽约时报》获得的卫星图像显示，曾经矗立在该建筑附近的瞭望塔已被拆除，学校新设三个公共入口，地面被清理平整，柏油地面上还画出了包括运动场在内的活动区域，墙壁也被粉刷成蓝色和粉色。

The “target coding” provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the military intelligence agency that helps develop targets, labeled the school building as a military target when it was passed to Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the war, according to people briefed on the preliminary findings of the investigation.

了解调查初步结果的人士称，由国防情报局（负责协助制定目标的军事情报机构）提供的“目标编码”在移交给中央司令部（负责监管战争的军事总部）时，将学校建筑标记为军事目标。

Investigators do not yet fully understand how the outdated data was sent to Central Command or whether the Defense Intelligence Agency had updated information.

调查人员目前尚未完全弄清楚这些过时数据是如何给到了中央司令部，也不清楚国防情报局当时是否掌握最新信息。

Military targeting is very complex and involves multiple agencies. Many officers would have been responsible for verifying that the data is correct, and officers at Central Command are responsible for checking the information they receive from the Defense Intelligence Agency or another intelligence agency. But in a fast-moving situation, like the opening days of a war, information is sometimes not verified.

军事目标的锁定是一项极其复杂的工作，涉及多个机构。许多军官都应负责核实数据的准确性，而中央司令部的军官也有责任检查来自国防情报局或其他情报机构的信息。但在战争初期这种快速变化的情况下，信息有时得不到核实。

In addition to the Defense Intelligence Agency and Central Command, investigators are examining the work of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, known as the N.G.A., which provides and examines satellite imagery of potential targets.

除了国防情报局和中央司令部，调查人员正在审查美国国家地理空间情报局的工作，该机构负责提供并分析潜在目标的卫星图像。

U.S. officials and others emphasized that the investigation was ongoing and there was more to learn, according to people briefed on the inquiry. Officials from Central Command declined to comment. Officials from the Defense Intelligence Agency referred questions to the Pentagon, which declined to comment, saying the incident was under investigation. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

了解调查情况的人士称，美国官员和其他人士强调，调查仍在进行中，还有更多情况有待了解。中央司令部官员拒绝置评。国防情报局官员将问题转给五角大楼，五角大楼拒绝置评，称该事件正在调查中。国家地理空间情报局未立即回应置评请求。

The Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency have dozens, even hundreds, of analysts at combatant commands who work with military operational planners and intelligence offices to develop targets.

国防情报局与国家地理空间情报局在各作战司令部派驻有数十甚至上百名分析师，他们与军事行动规划人员及情报部门合作，共同制定打击目标。

When the Defense Intelligence Agency’s targeting data is older, intelligence officers are expected to use imagery or data from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to update and verify the target.

当国防情报局提供的目标数据较为陈旧时，情报官员通常需要使用国家地理空间情报局提供的影像或数据来更新并核实目标。

While Mr. Trump has made targeting Iran’s navy a top priority of the war to prevent it from interfering with global commerce in the region, historically it has not been a top priority of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has focused more on Iran’s missiles and other priorities like China and North Korea.

尽管特朗普总统将打击伊朗海军列为战争的首要任务之一，以防其干扰该地区的全球商业航运，但从历史上看，这并非国防情报局的优先事项——该机构更关注伊朗的导弹能力，以及中国和朝鲜等其他重点目标。

Satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos assembled by The Times visual investigation team indicate that the school was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred around the same time as attacks on the naval base. A Times analysis showed that base was hit again within around two hours of the first strikes.

《纽约时报》的视觉调查团队整理的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实的视频显示，这所学校是在对海军基地发动袭击的同一时段遭到精确打击而严重损毁的。时报的分析显示，该基地在首轮袭击后约两小时内再次遭到打击。

A video uploaded Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The Times also shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking the naval base beside the school in Minab on Feb. 28.

上周日，伊朗半官方媒体迈赫尔通讯社上传的一段视频也显示（时报对视频进行了核实），2月28日，一枚“战斧”巡航导弹击中了米纳卜市这所学校旁边的海军基地。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have declined to comment on the strike, other than to say it is under investigation. Despite that, the president has tried at times to put the blame on Iran.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯及其他政府官员拒绝就此次袭击发表评论，仅表示事件仍在调查中。尽管如此，总统仍多次试图将责任归咎于伊朗。

“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Saturday, as Mr. Hegseth stood beside him, adding: “They’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”

“依我所见、根据我看到的情况，那是伊朗干的，”特朗普周六在“空军一号”上对记者说。当时海格塞思就站在他旁边。特朗普还补充说：“正如你们所知道的，他们的弹药非常不精准，完全没有精度。那就是伊朗干的。”

On Monday, a Times reporter asked Mr. Trump why he was the only official in his administration blaming Iran. “Because I just don’t know enough about it,” Mr. Trump answered, asserting incorrectly that Iran might also have Tomahawk missiles but adding that he would accept the results of the inquiry into what happened.

周一，当《纽约时报》记者问特朗普，为什么他是其政府中唯一将责任归咎于伊朗的官员时，特朗普回答说：“因为我对这件事还不够了解。”他还错误地声称伊朗可能也拥有“战斧”导弹，但表示自己会接受调查结果。

Although most presidents might refrain from commenting or couch their statements while an investigation is underway, Mr. Trump has not hesitated to weigh in, and has not fully backed down even as evidence has mounted of U.S. culpability.

尽管大多数总统在调查进行期间可能会避免发表评论或措辞谨慎，但特朗普却毫不犹豫地发表看法，即使越来越多证据显示美国负有责任，他也没有完全收回自己的说法。

On Tuesday, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, reiterated that Mr. Trump would accept the findings of the investigation.

周二，白宫新闻秘书莱维特再次表示，特朗普将接受调查结果。

While the investigation into the school is not complete, the use of old data evoked the biggest misstep of the Kosovo war.

尽管对学校的调查尚未结束，但使用旧数据这一情况，让人想起了科索沃战争中最大的失误。

In 1999, old, outdated maps and poor tradecraft led the C.I.A. to provide erroneous targeting data to the military, resulting in an airstrike on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade that killed three Chinese citizens. The C.I.A. wrongly assessed that the building was the headquarters of a Yugoslav arms agency.

1999年，由于过时地图和糟糕的情报工作，中央情报局向军方提供了错误的目标数据，导致误炸贝尔格莱德中国大使馆，造成三名中国公民死亡。当时中情局错误地判断该建筑是南斯拉夫一家军火机构的总部。

“Database maintenance is one of the basic elements of our intelligence effort, but it is also one that has suffered in recent years as our work force has been spread thin,” George J. Tenet, the C.I.A. director at the time, told a congressional committee in 1999.

“数据库维护是我们情报工作的基本要素之一，但近年来，由于我们的人力资源捉襟见肘，这方面也受到了影响，”时任中情局局长乔治·特尼特在1999年对国会委员会表示。

Military planners assumed the intelligence agency had verified the site and ordered the strike.

当时的军事规划人员以为情报机构已经核实了该地点，于是下令实施了打击。

Taiwan has grown accustomed to a near daily drumbeat of Chinese military planes flying close by, part of Beijing’s campaign to pressure the island it claims as its own. But lately, Taiwan has been facing an unexpected puzzle: Where have the planes gone?

台湾早已习惯了几乎每天都会响起的中国军机逼近的隆隆战鼓，这是北京对这个它声称拥有主权的岛屿施压行动的一部分。但最近，台湾面对着一个意想不到的谜团：那些飞机都去哪儿了？

For 12 of the past 13 days, no Chinese military flights were recorded near Taiwan. The sole exception was Sunday when two planes were seen approaching the island, according to daily data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

根据台湾国防部发布的每日数据，在过去的13天里，有12天未录得中国军机在台湾附近飞行。唯一的例外是周日，当时发现有两架飞机接近该岛。

“It is such a stark change from established behavior,” Ben Lewis, the founder of PLATracker, a website that collates the data from the Taiwanese defense ministry.

“这与长期以来的行为模式相比，是一个极其显著的变化，”汇总台湾国防部数据的网站PLATracker创始人本·刘易斯表示。

“This gap in activity is the longest we have seen since 2021,” Mr. Lewis said. That year, there was a three-week stretch that saw only five flights in total, and part of that time coincided with a tropical storm that churned around Taiwan. This time, the weather has been stable.

“这段活动真空期是自2021年以来我们见过的最长的一次，”刘易斯说。那一年曾有过一段持续三周的时间，总共只有五架次飞行，且其中一部分时间正值热带风暴在台湾周边肆虐。而这一次，天气状况一直很稳定。

Lulls in the number of People’s Liberation Army military flights are not new, including during China’s weeklong annual legislative session, which ends on Thursday. But in the past, there was still usually a smattering of flights at that time of year, according to the PLATracker. The fall was all the more striking against the buildup of Chinese military flights over recent years, Mr. Lewis said. Taiwan recorded about 10 Chinese military flights a day on average last year, and on some days the number went up to dozens.

解放军军机飞行数量的间歇性减少并非新鲜事，包括在中国为期一周的年度立法会议期间——该会议将于周四结束。但根据PLATracker的数据，往年这段时间通常仍会有零星的飞行。刘易斯表示，考虑到近年来中国军机活动规模的持续扩大，此次的下降显得尤为突兀。去年，台湾平均每天录得约10架次中国军机，有时一天甚至高达数十架次。

周一，出席中国全国人大年度会议的军队代表。

Analysts have offered several possible explanations, including that China may be setting the stage for President Trump’s planned summit with President Xi Jinping. China may also be trying to conserve fuel as oil prices rise because of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

分析人士提出了几种可能的解释，其中包括中国可能正在为习近平主席与特朗普总统计划中的峰会做铺垫。此外，由于美以对伊朗开战导致油价上涨，中国也可能正试图节省燃料。

Many experts pushed back on speculation that Beijing is deliberately reducing tensions as a prelude to military action.

许多专家反驳了有关北京正刻意缓解紧张局势，作为军事行动前奏的猜测。

China’s Ministry of National Defense has not commented on the falloff. Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, cautioned last week against reading the decline as a Chinese retreat from military threats against Taiwan.

中国国防部尚未就此次活动减少置评。台湾国防部长顾立雄上周发出提醒，告诫不要将这种减少解读为中国放弃对台军事威胁。

“We can’t simply look at whether the fighter aircraft are coming,” Mr. Koo told reporters in Taipei. “We need to look at a range of indicators.”

“我们不能只看攻机有没有来这个状况，”顾立雄在台北告诉记者，“我们还是要看各项的征候。”

Notably, the Chinese navy has not pulled back.

值得注意的是，中国海军并没有减少活动。

“We haven’t seen a comparable decrease in the reported number of P.L.A. naval vessels around Taiwan,” said Brian Hart, an expert in Washington, referring to the People’s Liberation Army. “The dip seems to be isolated to air activity.”

“我们并没有看到通报的台湾周边解放军海军舰艇数量出现类似的下降，”华盛顿专家、战略与国际研究中心中国实力项目副主任布莱恩·哈特表示，“这种下降似乎仅局限于空中活动。”

“Given the timing and the number of potential factors at play, it’s hard to say what exactly is shaping this behavior right now,” said Mr. Hart, who is the deputy director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

哈特说：“考虑到目前的时机和多种潜在因素的交织，很难确切说明究竟是什么在塑造当下的这种行为。”

He and other experts, as well as Taiwanese officials, will be watching to see whether the flights increase after China’s legislative session.

他和其他专家以及台湾官员将密切观察在中国立法会议结束后，飞行次数是否会回升。

今年1月，台湾士兵在台中举行的一场军事演习中展示青天白日旗。

Some analysts also said that Mr. Xi may be dialing back the flights ahead of the meeting with Mr. Trump in Beijing, which is scheduled for early April, to bolster his argument that it is Taiwan, and not China, that is provoking tensions between the sides.

一些分析人士还表示，习近平可能会在4月初北京会见特朗普之前减少飞行，以支持他的论点——在台海煽风点火的不是中国而是台湾。

Beijing has cast President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan as a dangerous separatist bent on rejecting the prospect of unification, and risking war. Many Taiwanese and many Western governments see China as being the aggressor, including through military exercises that simulate an invasion or blockage of the island.

北京将台湾总统赖清德定性为危险的“分裂分子”，认为他执意拒绝统一前景并甘冒战争风险。而许多台湾民众和西方政府则认为是中国咄咄逼人，包括通过模拟入侵或封锁岛屿的军事演习来施压。

Given that Mr. Trump’s administration is already engaged in war with Iran, “I think that Xi doesn’t want Trump to think that Beijing is adding to the trouble,” said Ou Hsi-fu, a deputy chief executive officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a body in Taipei that receives funds from Taiwan’s government.

考虑到特朗普政府已经卷入了与伊朗的战争，“我认为习不想让川普觉得北京在添乱，”受台湾政府资助的台北国防安全研究院副执行长欧锡富表示。

“Beijing wants the Xi-Trump summit to go ahead smoothly, maintaining China’s image as a great power on equal footing with the United States,” Mr. Ou said.

“北京还希望川习会顺利进行，保持与美国平起平坐的大国形象，”他说。

The military flights are the mostly widely noted public measure of Chinese military pressure on Taiwan; they have increased since 2020, accelerating after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taipei in 2022. China retaliated against that visit by flying jets, sailing ships and even firing missiles around the island.

军机飞行是外界关注度最高的中国对台军事压力指标；自2020年以来，此类活动不断增加，并在2022年时任美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问台北后加速。当时，中国通过出动战机、舰艇甚至在岛屿周边发射导弹进行了报复。

Some experts believe that the current reduction in flights may reflect disruption caused by the official purges in the Chinese air force, including in the Eastern Theater Command, the region of the Chinese military that oversees Taiwan. The Chinese armed forces have been shaken by widespread purges of generals and other top leaders.

一些专家认为，目前的飞行减少可能反映了中国空军内部官员清洗所导致的干扰，包括负责监督台湾区域的东部战区。中国武装力量此前因将领及其他高层领导人的广泛清洗而产生动荡。

Another possible factor may simply be that the air force is intentionally altering its training routines, said K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

美国亚洲研究局非常驻研究员汤广正(K. Tristan Tang)表示，另一个可能的因素或许只是空军在有意改变其训练常规。

“What we are seeing now has actually been developing for more than half a year,” Mr. Tang said, citing a recent pattern of more days without flights compared to the previous year. “The difference is that the decline has become much more noticeable recently.”

“我们现在看到的现象实际上已经发展了半年多，”他是指近期与去年相比，出现了更多“无飞行日”模式。“不同之处在于，这种下降在最近变得更加显而易见。”

Down a stairway and behind an unmarked door, dozens of men toil in a vast basement workshop in Ukraine. Wearing headlamps, they lean over circuit boards as wisps of smoke rise from soldering irons.

沿着楼梯往下，在一扇没有任何标记的门后面，几十名男子正在乌克兰一个巨大的地下车间里忙碌着。他们戴着头灯，俯身在电路板上工作，电烙铁升起缕缕烟雾。

A year ago, most Ukrainian defense companies could not produce these boards, which are key ingredients in small exploding drones. But this advance, among others, has helped the country reach a milestone: It can now make drones with no components imported from China.

一年前，大多数乌克兰国防企业还无法生产这些电路板，而它们正是小型自杀式无人机的关键部件。但这一进展以及其他突破帮助乌克兰达成了一个里程碑：如今它可以制造完全不依赖中国进口零部件的无人机。

Ukraine is prioritizing self-sufficiency in the production of drones as they increasingly dominate the battlefield. They now account for more than 90 percent of Russian casualties, according to Maj. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.

随着无人机在战场上日益占据主导地位，乌克兰正把重点放在无人机生产的自给自足上。乌克兰无人系统部队指挥官罗伯特·布罗夫迪少校表示，俄军伤亡现在有九成以上是由无人机造成的。

Drones are also playing a major role in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. The Iranian military has attacked countries in the region with hundreds of its Shahed drones, and the United States has used its own version of the Shahed for the first time in combat.

无人机在美以对伊朗的战争中也发挥着重要作用。伊朗军方动用数百架沙赫德无人机对其他中东国家发起袭击，而美国也首次在实战中使用了自己的沙赫德版本。

Ukraine will not be mass-producing drones with no Chinese components anytime soon, because it’s still much cheaper to use them. Given China’s dominance of global manufacturing, it is hard to define any drone as truly “China-free.” Many components made outside China still contain Chinese parts or raw materials.

不过，乌克兰短期内还不会大规模生产完全不含中国零部件的无人机，因为使用这些零部件仍然便宜得多。鉴于中国在全球制造业的主导地位，不含中国元素的无人机很那做到。许多在中国境外制造的零部件仍然含有中国的零件或原材料。

But Ukrainian officials believe it is important to make drones with as few components from China as possible, and to be able to continue making drones if Chinese supplies should be cut off.

但乌克兰官员认为，制造尽可能少用中国组件的无人机，并且在中国供应可能被切断的情况下能够继续制造无人机，这一点很重要。

Ukraine is one of many nations that have been working to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains. The United States has limited the use of Chinese products in military hardware and other critical systems over security concerns. In addition, global shocks in recent years have shown the vulnerabilities that come with making China the single source of any product.

乌克兰只是众多试图减少对中国供应链依赖的国家之一。出于安全考虑，美国已经限制在军用硬件和其他关键系统中使用中国产品。此外，近年来的全球冲击也表明，如果把中国作为某种产品的单一来源，将带来巨大的脆弱性。

乌克兰士兵走过扎波罗热地区一架俄罗斯第一人称视角无人机的残骸，摄于去年。

“Given the risks of sourcing components from China, which is unfriendly to us, the main task is to produce them in Ukraine,” Major Brovdi said in an interview. “The strength of the Ukrainian manufacturer lies in the fact that import substitution has already taken place.”

“考虑到从中国采购零部件的风险——而中国对我们并不友好——主要任务就是在乌克兰本土生产这些部件，”布罗夫迪少校在采访中说。“乌克兰制造商的优势在于，进口替代已经实现。”

Two companies in Ukraine that have built “China-free” drones were picked to compete for contracts in a Pentagon “drone dominance program” under which the United States plans to buy thousands of low-cost attack drones. One of the companies, Ukrainian Defense Drones Tech Corporation, where the men were soldering circuit boards in the basement workshop, was among 11 in all selected last week for possible American drone orders.

乌克兰两家制造“无中国零部件”无人机的企业被选中参与五角大楼“无人机主导计划”的合同竞争。根据这一计划，美国打算采购数千架低成本攻击无人机。其中一家是乌克兰国防无人机科技公司，也就是那些男子在地下车间焊接电路板的公司。该公司是上周最终入选可能获得美国无人机订单的11家企业之一。

Ukraine Defense Drones makes most of its own components, and European suppliers fill most of the gaps.

乌克兰国防无人机公司自行生产大部分零部件，其余则由欧洲的供应商填补。

That reflects a sea change over the course of the war. In the first year after the Russian invasion in February 2022, nearly all of Ukraine’s drones came from China.

这反映出了俄乌战争期间的一个巨大变化。在2022年2月俄罗斯入侵后的第一年，乌克兰几乎所有的无人机都来自中国。

As demand surged, Beijing imposed export restrictions in 2023 and expanded them in 2024. While China is officially neutral in the war, experts say that Beijing has given its partner Russia preferential access to components that can still be exported.

随着需求激增，北京于2023年实施了出口限制，并于2024年扩大了限制范围。虽然中国在战争中官方保持中立，但专家表示，北京让其伙伴俄罗斯在获取仍可出口的组件方面享有优先待遇。

As the rules tightened, Ukraine resorted to middlemen to buy some parts, and Ukrainian companies began to view the Chinese market as increasingly unreliable. Kyiv turned its focus to building its own drones, and eventually to doing so with fewer Chinese components.

随着中国出口管制的收紧，乌克兰不得不通过中间商购买一些零件，而乌克兰公司也开始认为中国市场越来越不可靠。基辅将重心转向自行生产无人机，并逐渐减少对中国零部件的依赖。

By 2024, the vast majority of drones that Ukraine sent to the front were assembled domestically — but still almost entirely with Chinese components. A year later, however, the share of parts from China in Ukraine’s drones had fallen to about 38 percent, according to the Ukrainian Council of Defense Industry and the Snake Island Institute, a think tank in Kyiv.

到2024年，乌克兰送往前线的绝大多数无人机都是国内组装的——但几乎所有零部件仍来自中国。不过一年之后，根据乌克兰国防工业委员会和基辅智库蛇岛研究所的数据，乌克兰无人机中来自中国的零部件比例已降至约38%。

Ukraine still buys cheaper Chinese components because the Ukrainian military needs huge numbers of drones and has a limited budget to buy them. Drone missions fail at very high rates, another reason that Ukraine tries to keep costs down.

乌克兰仍然购买价格更便宜的中国零部件，因为乌克兰军方的无人机需求量巨大，而预算又有限。无人机任务失败率也非常高，这也是乌克兰努力压低成本的原因之一。

According to a Ukrainian official who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive procurement issues, Ukrainian and Russian companies often buy parts from the same factories in China. Chinese bosses, the official said, keep a precise schedule at production sites so that Ukrainian and Russian buyers do not cross paths.

一名乌克兰官员表示，乌克兰和俄罗斯的公司往往从中国同一家工厂采购零部件。由于涉及敏感采购问题，这名官员要求匿名。他说，中国的工厂老板会精确安排生产时间表，以避免乌克兰和俄罗斯的买家在工厂相遇。

Col. Pavlo Palisa, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office and a military adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Kyiv was scaling up domestic weapons production in part to strengthen its hand in peace negotiations.

乌克兰总统办公室副主任、总统泽连斯基的军事顾问帕夫洛·帕利萨上校表示，基辅正在扩大国内武器生产，部分是为了在和平谈判中增强自己的筹码。

“If we import, that means dependency, and any dependency means a weaker position,” he said in an interview.

“如果我们依赖进口，就意味着依赖别人，而任何依赖都会让我们处于更弱的地位，”他在采访中说。

Expanding the sources of components, Colonel Palisa said, would make China less likely to impose further export restrictions, knowing that they would have a limited effect. “When there are alternatives, they don’t act up as much,” he said.

帕利萨上校表示，扩大零部件来源也会促使中国不愿进一步实施出口限制，因为知道那样的效果有限。“当存在替代方案时，他们就不会那么轻易采取限制措施，”他说。

Ukrainian Defense Drones, under the brand name F-Drones, produces exploding first-person-view quadcopter drones that have been used more than any other drone to destroy Russian heavy equipment.

乌克兰国防无人机公司以F-Drones品牌生产第一人称视角四轴旋翼攻击无人机，这种无人机在摧毁俄罗斯重型装备方面的使用率超过任何其他类型的无人机。

“The country was saved by $500 drones,” said Hnat Buyakin, the company’s founder, referring to the beginning of the war in 2022, when Ukraine was at a heavy disadvantage to Russia in personnel and ammunition. Soldiers improvised, modifying cheap Chinese drones in makeshift workshops along the front line to drop handmade bombs.

“拯救这个国家的是价值500美元的无人机，”该公司创始人赫纳特·布亚金说，他指的是2022年战争初期，当时乌克兰在人员和弹药方面远远落后于俄罗斯。士兵们临时想办法，在前线附近的简陋作坊里改装廉价的中国无人机，用来投掷自制炸弹。

Ukrainian Defense Drones began making drones in 2023. Initially, all of its components were Chinese. Within a year, however, it had localized production of carbon fiber frames and antennas.

乌克兰国防无人机公司在2023年开始制造无人机。最初所有零部件都来自中国。然而一年之内，它就实现了碳纤维机架和天线的本土生产。

去年，在哈尔科夫地区，乌克兰士兵在掩体里制造无人机。

It is precision work. “These antennas are a separate kind of magic — a millimeter deviation in the wire and it doesn’t work properly,” Mr. Buyakin said. The company now produces up to 15,000 antennas a day.

这是一项精密工作。“这些天线是另一种意义上的魔法——导线只要偏差一毫米，就无法正常工作，”布亚金说。公司现在每天最多可以生产1.5万根天线。

By 2025, Ukrainian Defense Drones had expanded to produce flight controllers, speed regulators, radio modems and video transmission systems. Essentially, all its components were made in Ukraine except for the cameras.

到2025年，乌克兰国防无人机公司的产品扩展到飞控系统、速度调节器、无线电调制解调器和视频传输系统。基本上，除了摄像头外，所有部件都在乌克兰制造。

The company has since gained technology for cameras, too, which it hopes to produce in Europe. For now, it buys cameras from another Ukrainian company that imports parts from Europe.

该公司此后也获得了摄像头技术，并希望在欧洲生产。目前，它从另一家从欧洲进口零部件的乌克兰公司采购摄像头。

Mr. Buyakin described the limits to “China-free” production. While his company makes carbon frames for drones, for example, the carbon itself is imported, usually from China, because that is cheaper.

布亚金也谈到了“无中国零部件”生产的局限性。例如，他的公司虽然生产无人机的碳纤维机架，但碳纤维材料本身通常仍需要进口，往往来自中国，因为那样更便宜。

Batteries that power drones are also still largely produced in China, which dominates supply chains for battery materials like lithium and rare-earth metals.

为无人机供电的电池目前也大多在中国生产，因为中国在锂和稀土金属等电池材料供应链中占据主导地位。

Ukraine has lithium deposits, but they are undeveloped. Investing in them has been a goal of a Ukrainian agreement with the United States on mineral development.

乌克兰拥有锂矿藏，但尚未开发。投资这些资源一直是乌克兰与美国达成的矿产开发协议的目标之一。

Ukraine’s goals do not end at producing drones without Chinese components. Designs in Ukraine are updated monthly based on battlefield performance, a contrast with the slow pace of traditional weapons production.

乌克兰的目标不仅仅是生产不含中国零部件的无人机。乌克兰的无人机设计会根据战场表现进行每月更新，这与传统武器生产缓慢的节奏形成鲜明对比。

In his company’s move toward China-free manufacturing, Mr. Buyakin said, “We deliberately chose the most difficult path because Ukraine is now fighting for its place in a technological war, and we are gaining this experience with our own blood.”

谈到公司“去中国化”的转型努力时，布亚金说：“我们故意选择了一条最困难的道路，因为乌克兰正在一场技术战争中争夺立足之地，而我们正在用鲜血换取这份经验。”

In the political annals of the Islamic Republic of Iran, one of the first notorious public episodes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, the man just named as the country’s new supreme leader, occurred during the 2005 presidential election.

伊朗伊斯兰共和国政治史册记载的诸多臭名昭著的公开事件中，最早的一桩涉及新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的事件，发生在2005年总统大选期间。

After a dark-horse candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, surged abruptly into a runoff and eventual victory, the reformist politician who unexpectedly lost wrote an open letter to the supreme leader accusing his son Mojtaba of manipulating the vote.

当时，黑马候选人马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德异军突起，进入了决选，并最终获胜。那位意外落败的改革派政治人士随后给最高领袖写了一封公开信，指责其子穆杰塔巴操纵选票。

“You are well aware that the unwise intervention of the relatives and aides of some religious and political officials in the past has had a very negative consequence,” the opposition candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, wrote in the letter, published by two newspapers that were forced to suspend publication afterward.

“您很清楚，过去某些宗教和政治官员的亲属及助手不明智地干预政务，已经造成了极其负面的后果，”反对派候选人迈赫迪·卡鲁比在信中写道。该信由两家报纸刊发，它们随后被强令停刊。

Ever since, Mr. Khamenei has had the reputation of operating in the shadows, using the power of his father’s office to manipulate events in the Islamic republic in favor of the hard-line faction.

自此以后，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊便背负了在影子中运作的名声，利用其父的权力来操纵伊斯兰共和国的事务，使其向强硬派阵营倾斜。

That headquarters of the supreme leader, which he is now inheriting from his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has always played an outsize role in the country’s affairs.

他目前从父亲阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊手中继承的最高领袖办事机构，在该国事务中一直发挥着超乎寻常的作用。

周一在德黑兰，伊朗民众手持穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊及其父亲的海报，表达对新任最高领袖的支持。

In the 37 years that the elder Mr. Khamenei ruled before being killed in an American and Israeli attack, he transformed the office from a traditional religious affairs bureau with a political cast into a national security juggernaut with oversight of the military, intelligence, the economy, foreign affairs and, of course, the clergy.

在遭美以袭击身亡前，老哈梅内伊的37年执政将该机构从一个带有政治色彩的传统宗教事务局，转型为一个掌控军事、情报、经济、外交以及宗教界的国家安全巨无霸。

“Under Khamenei, it became a complete security, political and economic state within a state,” said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee who coauthored a report last January about the transformation.

“在哈梅内伊治下，它变成了一个集安全、政治和经济于一体的完整的‘国中之国’，”田纳西大学政治学教授赛义德·戈尔卡表示，他于去年1月参与撰写了一份关于这一转型的报告。

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, the second of four sons, was already considered the “mini supreme leader” advising his father on the office’s web of operations, Mr. Golkar added. His three brothers also worked there in advisory roles.

戈尔卡补充道，56岁的穆杰塔巴是四个儿子中的次子，此前已被视为“迷你最高领袖”，负责就该办事机构复杂的运作网络向其父提供建议。他的三个兄弟也在那里担任顾问职务。

President Trump has said that his assault on Iran should give him a role in picking the country’s next leader. Asked about the younger Mr. Khamenei at a news conference on Monday, Mr. Trump said, “We think it’s going to lead to more of the same problems for the country, so I was disappointed.” Analysts considered the choice a sign of the regime’s seeking continuity amid the tumult of the war.

特朗普总统曾表示，他对伊朗的打击应让他有权参与挑选该国的下一任领导人。在周一的新闻发布会上被问及小哈梅内伊时，特朗普说：“我们认为这会导致这个国家面临更多同样的问题，所以我感到很失望。”分析人士认为，这一选择标志着该政权在战争动荡中寻求连续性。

The name of the office is Bayt-e Rahbari in Farsi, meaning the House of the Supreme Leader, often known simply as the Bayt.

该办事机构的波斯语名称是Bayt-e Rahbari，意为“最高领袖府”，通常简称为“贝特”(Bayt)。

In Shiite Islam, tradition dictates that an ayatollah should establish a bayt to interact with followers on religious questions and to organize matters like charity. A son is often delegated to run it.

依据什叶派伊斯兰教传统，阿亚图拉应建立一个“贝特”，以便与信徒沟通宗教问题并组织慈善等事务。通常会委派一名儿子来负责管理。

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, added a political element to that model. When the ayatollah began fading before his death in 1989, his son Ahmad Khomeini became his gatekeeper. That prompted considerable grumbling about excessive interference by the Bayt, especially after Ahmad was accused of torpedoing as too liberal the main candidate expected to succeed Ayatollah Khomeini.

伊斯兰革命创始人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼为这一模式增添了政治色彩。当霍梅尼在1989年去世前身体每况愈下时，其子艾哈迈德·霍梅尼成为了他的“守门人”。这引发了关于贝特过度干预的强烈不满，尤其是艾哈迈德被指控排挤了一位被认为过于自由派的领袖继承人。

1979年，阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼（中）与其子艾哈迈德·霍梅尼（左一）结束在法国的流亡，回到德黑兰。

The secretive Bayt that the next leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, established was on a different order of magnitude. While the previous Bayt had dozens of employees, said Mr. Golkar, 4,000 people now work there, and 40,000 more are affiliated throughout the government.

继任领袖哈梅内伊建立的这个神秘的贝特，其规模完全不可同日而语。戈尔卡表示，之前的贝特只有数十名雇员，而现在那里有4000人，另外在政府各部门还有4万名下属人员。

Ayatollah Khamenei created mirror offices for every government ministry, appointing powerful deputies for foreign affairs, education, cultural affairs and other departments who were all given a mandate to ensure that government policy conformed to his wishes. Other teams steer military and intelligence matters. Mr. Trump imposed sanctions on the supreme leader’s office in 2019.

哈梅内伊为每一个政府部委都设立了镜像办公室，任命掌握重权的副手负责外交、教育、文化等部门，授权他们确保政府政策符合其意志。另有团队操控军事和情报事务。特朗普曾于2019年对最高领袖办公室实施制裁。

Lacking venerable religious credentials or popular support when he became supreme leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei set about consolidating his power through the security services and his Bayt.

1989年接任最高领袖时，由于缺乏宗教资历或民意支持，哈梅内伊着手通过安全部门和他的贝特来巩固权力。

Given his reliance on the security services to crack down on increasingly frequent waves of dissent, including fatally shooting thousands of street protesters months ago, Ayatollah Khamenei had surrounded himself with the military commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

鉴于他依赖安全部门镇压日益频繁的反抗浪潮（包括数月前射杀数千名街头抗议者），哈梅内伊身边一直环绕着伊斯兰革命卫队的指挥官。

The religious weight of the office declined further with the younger Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The son is a mid-ranking cleric, even if official statements immediately started referring to him as an “ayatollah.”

华盛顿保卫民主基金会高级研究员贝南·本·塔勒布卢表示，随着小哈梅内伊的任命，该职位的宗教分量进一步下降。尽管官方声明立即开始称其为“阿亚图拉”，但这位儿子其实只是名中层神职人员。

“Neither Khamenei was religiously qualified for the position, and it is almost certain that the new supreme leader will emulate his father and cultivate security ties,” said Mr. Taleblu.

“两位哈梅内伊在宗教层面上都不具备担任该职位的资格。几乎可以肯定，新任最高领袖将效仿其父，继续经营他与安全部门的关系，”塔勒布卢说。

The son is considered even more entwined with the Guards, particularly since he vetted the appointments of the latest generation of commanders and his history with them goes back to his teenage years, when he served in a noncombat role toward the end of the Iran-Iraq war, said Mr. Golkar.

戈尔卡指出，这位儿子被认为与革命卫队的关系更加盘根错节，特别是考虑到他曾负责审核最新一代将领的任命，且他与卫队的渊源可追溯到青少年时期——在两伊战争末期，他曾在其中担任非战斗职务。

Mojtaba Khamenei, who was 22 when his father took over as supreme leader, matured within the Bayt. Throughout those years, the regime’s authoritarian bent has increasingly overshadowed the theocracy that first emerged from the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在父亲接掌最高权力时年仅22岁，他在贝特内部逐渐成熟。在这些年里，该政权的威权倾向渐渐压过1979年伊斯兰革命产生的神权体制。

“Iran has already moved from a theocratic regime to the theocratic security system under Khamenei, and now it is moving toward a more complete security state under Mojtaba,” said Mr. Golkar.

“在哈梅内伊治下，伊朗已经从神权政体转变为神权安全体系；而现在，在穆杰塔巴治下，它正向一个更彻底的安全国家演变，”戈尔卡说。

Dr. Jay Miller’s once-in-a-lifetime family vacation to India took an unexpected twist on Feb. 28 when his Qatar Airways flight to Dallas made a U-turn about an hour after taking off from Doha, Qatar.

杰伊·米勒医生原本千载难逢的全家赴印度度假之旅在2月28日出现了意想不到的转折——当时他乘坐的卡塔尔航空飞往达拉斯的航班在从卡塔尔多哈起飞约一小时后突然掉头返航。

Israel and the United States had attacked Iran, which was launching rockets and drones in retaliation. Countries across the Middle East, including Qatar, had closed their airspace and canceled flights, stranding tens of thousands of travelers.

以色列和美国对伊朗发动袭击，而伊朗则以火箭和无人机进行报复。包括卡塔尔在内的多个中东国家关闭了领空并取消航班，数以万计的旅客因此滞留。

Back on the ground in Doha, Dr. Miller heard explosions so powerful that his hotel room’s windows shook.

回到多哈地面后，米勒医生听到了剧烈的爆炸声，他酒店房间的窗户都在震动。

“It was one of the moments when you tell your spouse you love them, which I did,” he said.

“那是一种会让你对配偶说‘我爱你’的时刻——我确实这么说了，”他说。

Dr. Miller, a 45-year-old pulmonary and critical care specialist, had left India a week earlier than his wife, Swathi Narra, and 5-year-old daughter, Devi, to return to his patients. It was Devi’s first trip to the country, and the family had seen wild leopards and visited the village where Swathi’s deceased father grew up.

45岁的米勒医生是一名肺病与重症监护专家。因为有病人要照顾，他比妻子斯瓦蒂·纳拉和五岁的女儿德维提前一周离开印度。那是德维第一次到印度旅行，一家人看到了野生豹子，还去了斯瓦蒂已故父亲成长的村子。

Now, he would be spending the next five nights alone in Doha on an emotional roller coaster, trying to distract himself by cautiously exploring the city. Some of his fellow guests at the Andaz Doha, too afraid even to go to their rooms on higher floors, sheltered in the hotel lobby all day.

现在，他将在多哈独自度过接下来的五个夜晚，情绪像坐过山车一样起伏，只能小心翼翼地在城里逛逛，试图分散注意力。一同住在多哈安达仕酒店的一些住客也和他一样，因为太害怕，甚至不敢回到高楼层的房间，整天呆在酒店大堂里。

He tried calling the U.S. State Department, filling out forms, and reaching out to Louisiana politicians — all fruitless. By Wednesday, a day after the State Department announced that travelers should not rely on the U.S. government to evacuate them, he decided to escape the region any way he could.

他尝试给美国国务院打电话、填写各种表格、联系路易斯安那州的政客——全都徒劳无功。到周三，也就是国务院宣布旅客不应指望美国政府会将他们撤离的第二天，他决定要不惜一切代价离开这个地区。

He and Swathi, still in India, furiously searched for flights that would get him anywhere outside the Middle East. The Doha airport was still closed, and flight options were scarce. Some jets were departing from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a roughly nine-hour drive away. Dr. Miller tried his luck.

他和仍在印度的斯瓦蒂疯狂地搜索能让他前往中东以外任何地方的航班。多哈机场仍然关闭，航班选择极为有限。有些航班从沙特阿拉伯的利雅得起飞，到那里大约有九个小时的车程。米勒医生决定碰碰运气。

He found a spot on a flight from Riyadh to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, selecting it because the departure time was a good fit given the long overland journey. He quickly applied online for visas to the two countries.

他弄到了一张从利雅得飞往埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴的机票，选择这个航班是因为考虑到漫长的陆路旅程，它的起飞时间很合适。他迅速在网上申请了这两个国家的签证。

“We felt we had to move on our own. There was not time or the circumstances to wait for someone,” he said, adding that an itinerary that initially felt “so crazy and far-fetched” no longer was.

他说，“我们觉得只能靠自己行动了。没有时间，也没有条件再等待别人来帮忙”，并补充道，一开始看起来“疯狂而难以想象”的行程，现在变得不再那么不可思议。

He hired a hotel-recommended driver to take him to the border with Saudi Arabia, then had to find another to get him through the visa and customs checkpoints, and a third to drive him from the border to King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. In all, the car services cost about $3,000.

他雇了酒店推荐的司机送他到沙特边境，然后必须另找一位司机带他通过签证和海关检查站，再找第三位司机把他从边境送到利雅得的哈立德国王国际机场。总共下来，车费约3000美元。

During a phone interview as the car sped across the Saudi desert, Dr. Miller said that his anxiety spiked each time the vehicle passed through routine checkpoints. His overwhelming emotions were “desperation and fear and anxiety to just flee and get out.”

在汽车穿越沙特沙漠时，接受电话采访的米勒医生说，每当车辆通过例行检查站，他的焦虑都会骤然上升。他当时排山倒海的情绪就是：“绝望、恐惧和焦虑，只想赶紧逃离这里。”

When he arrived at the airport in Riyadh on Thursday evening, the terminal was eerily quiet, with most of the departures — to places like Abu Dhabi, Delhi, Hong Kong and Colombo, Sri Lanka — canceled. Sitting in an empty airline lounge, he nervously awaited his 3:40 a.m. flight to Addis Ababa.

周四晚上，当他抵达利雅得机场时，航站楼内异常冷清，大多数前往阿布扎比、德里、香港和斯里兰卡科伦坡等地的航班都被取消了。坐在空荡荡的航空公司贵宾休息室里，他紧张地等待着凌晨3点40分飞往亚的斯亚贝巴的航班。

That flight, operated by Ethiopian Airlines, was packed. He barely slept a wink.

这趟由埃塞俄比亚航空运营的航班座无虚席。他几乎一夜未合眼。

Ethiopia had not been on Dr. Miller’s travel wish list before this trip.

在这次旅行之前，埃塞俄比亚从未出现在米勒医生的旅行愿望清单上。

But he had 15 hours to fill in Addis Ababa after his flight landed at 6:40 a.m. on Friday, and he didn’t feel like spending them at the airport. Though he was running on empty, he seized the chance to visit the National Museum of Ethiopia, home to the skeleton of Lucy, a 3.2-million-year-old hominin that was discovered in the country in 1974. As a self-described die-hard disciple of Charles Darwin, Dr. Miller joked by text message that there was no way he’d miss the chance to see “my one true love.”

不过，他的航班在周五早上6点40分抵达亚的斯亚贝巴后，他还有15个小时需要打发，他并不想一直留在机场里。尽管已经筋疲力尽，他还是抓住机会参观了埃塞俄比亚国家博物馆。那里收藏着露西的骨骼——这是一具1974年在埃塞俄比亚发现、距今320万年的古人类化石。作为一个自称达尔文铁杆信徒的人，米勒医生在短信中开玩笑说，他绝不会错过见到“我唯一真正挚爱”的机会。

He also sought out a strong cup of coffee, a beverage Ethiopia is famous for.

他还去找了一杯浓咖啡，这是埃塞俄比亚闻名于世的特产。

He arrived back at the airport about three hours ahead of his 10:40 p.m. departure, but it still turned out to be a close call. To keep him from missing his flight, airport employees whisked him to the front of the security line. His passport was checked five times.

他在晚上10点40分航班起飞前三个小时回到机场，但时间仍然十分紧张。为了避免误机，机场工作人员把他直接带到安检队伍最前面。他的护照被检查了五次。

He still had many grueling miles to go. His Chicago-bound Ethiopian Airways flight made a refueling stop in Rome six and a half hours later, but passengers did not disembark. Then, with its tanks filled, it took off for Chicago, where it landed shortly before 8 a.m. on Saturday, about a full week after his first flight made its midair U-turn.

他前面还有漫长而煎熬的路程。他乘坐的这架飞往芝加哥的埃塞俄比亚航空航班在六半小时后经停罗马加油，但乘客并未下机。随后，加满油的飞机起飞前往芝加哥，于周六早上快8点时降落，此时距离他第一趟航班在空中掉头已过去差不多整整一周。

At O’Hare International Airport, he faced a potential gantlet passing through U.S. customs and immigration, which has been affected by the ongoing shutdown in Department of Homeland Security funding. Even without Global Entry, an expedited entry program the government suspended because of the shutdown, the line moved at a steady clip. Dr. Miller collected his checked bag and waited three hours for his next departure, a United Airlines flight to New Orleans.

在芝加哥奥黑尔国际机场，他不得不面对美国海关和移民局的关卡考验。由于国土安全部资金持续中断，这一流程也受到影响。即使没有使用全球快速通关计划——这个原本可以快速通关的项目因为政府停摆而暂停——队伍仍以稳速向前移动。米勒医生取回托运行李，然后又等待了三个小时，搭乘下一趟飞往新奥尔良的美联航航班。

Despite being in the homestretch, he almost didn’t take off. Backing out from the gate at O’Hare, the plane struck a baggage cart. But the flight was still able to depart, and it landed in New Orleans a little after 2 p.m. on Saturday. It had been more than 60 hours since he fled Qatar, and in all, Dr. Miller estimated, the journey home cost almost $10,000.

尽管已接近旅程的尾声，他差点还是没能起飞。在奥黑尔机场退出登机口时，飞机撞上了一辆行李车。但航班仍得以起飞，并于周六下午两点多降落在新奥尔良。自他逃离卡塔尔以来，已经过去了60多个小时，米勒医生估计，这趟回家之旅总共花费了近1万美元。

About an hour later, he stepped into his house in the Marigny and cracked open a beer. That night, he slept 16 uninterrupted hours. The State Department finally called him back that evening, but he was fast asleep in his own bed. The call went to voice mail.

大约一个小时后，他回到了位于新奥尔良马里尼的家中，打开了一瓶啤酒。那天晚上，他一口气睡了16个小时。国务院终于在那天晚上给他回了电话，但他在自己床上睡得正香。电话转到了语音信箱。

The spike in oil prices precipitated by the American and Israeli attack on Iran is rippling throughout global economies. On Monday, the price of oil rose to nearly $120 a barrel, before settling back down to around $90 after President Trump suggested the war could be over soon. Oil was about $70 a barrel before the conflict began on Feb. 28. Jet fuel rose more than 58 percent as of March 6 compared to the week before, according to the International Air Transport Association.

美以袭击伊朗引发的油价飙升正在全球经济中传导蔓延。周一，油价一度逼近每桶120美元，随后在特朗普总统表示战争可能很快结束后回落至90美元左右。2月28日冲突爆发前，油价约为每桶70美元。国际航空运输协会数据显示，截至3月6日，航空燃油价格较前一周上涨超过58%。

Market volatility only adds to the confusion around flight prices. But the last time oil rose more than 40 percent — in 2022, on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — airfares jumped 28 percent.

市场波动只会让机票价格更加混乱。而上一次油价涨幅超40%是在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，当时机票价格随之大涨28%。

So far, no American carrier has announced price hikes. But they are beginning to trickle in elsewhere: Air New Zealand and SAS, for instance, are among the international airlines that have recently announced fare increases tied to the rising price of jet fuel.

到目前为止，美国尚无航空公司宣布涨价，但其他地区已开始陆续提价：例如，新西兰航空和北欧航空等国际航司近期已宣布因航空燃油价格上涨上调票价。

For airlines today, the cost of flying has sharply increased, but will they pass those costs on to consumers and, if so, how? We asked experts to weigh in on the potential effects travelers may feel.

如今，对航空公司而言，飞行成本已大幅上升，但它们会将这些成本转嫁给乘客吗？如果会，又会以何种方式？我们请教了专家，分析旅客可能感受到的潜在影响。

How will higher oil prices affect the cost of a ticket?

油价上涨将如何影响机票价格？

Fuel is the second-largest expense, after labor, for an airline. In the United States, most carriers stopped the practice of hedging against oil spikes long ago, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations.

燃油是航空公司仅次于人力成本的第二大支出。在美国，多数航司早已停止对油价上涨进行对冲操作，这使其更容易受到市场波动影响。

Asked last week at an academic event about rising airfares linked to surging oil prices, United Airlines’ chief executive, Scott Kirby, said the effect of higher fuel costs on airfares would “probably start quick.” (Asked for comment, a representative for United said it had “nothing additional to add.”)

上周在一场学术活动中，美联航首席执行官斯科特·柯比被问及与油价飙升相关的机票涨价问题时表示，燃油成本上涨对机票价格的影响“可能很快就会开始显现”。（美联航发言人在被要求置评时表示“没有更多补充”。）

“The second he said it, that gave airlines permission to increase fares,” said Henry H. Harteveldt, the president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.

“他这话一出口，就等于给所有航空公司开了涨价的绿灯，”旧金山旅行研究咨询公司大气研究集团总裁亨利·哈特维尔特说。

But how — and how much — costs may rise is unclear. Mr. Harteveldt noted that airlines have many ways to recoup ballooning fuel expenses beyond a blanket increase, including charging more for tickets in business and first class, where the pinch may sting less; raising fees for ancillary services like checking bags or assigning seats; eliminating or reducing the number of seats sold for the lowest fares on certain routes; consolidating departures; or increasing fuel surcharges on international flights.

但成本会以何种方式上涨、上涨多少，目前仍不明确。哈特维尔特指出，除全面涨价外，航空公司还有多种方式弥补不断攀升的燃油成本，包括提高价格敏感度较低的商务舱、头等舱票价；提高托运行李、选座等附加服务费用；取消或减少部分航线的最低价座位；合并航班；提高国际航班燃油附加费。

“All of these are ways airlines can push travelers into paying more for flights,” he said.

“所有这些方式都可以让旅客为航班支付更多费用，”他说。

Are all airlines affected equally?

所有航空公司受到的影响都一样吗？

Wherever they fly, low-cost carriers are more likely to suffer compared with competitors.

无论航线如何，低成本航空公司受到的冲击都将大于竞争对手。

“Budget airlines such as Spirit and Frontier are in the toughest position,” said Julian Kheel, the founder and chief executive of Points Path, a service that compares cash airfares to paying with points. “Carriers with premium cabins have the option to shift some fuel costs onto business and first-class travelers, who are relatively insensitive to price increases. But low-cost carriers don’t have that cushion, which means their passengers will bear the full brunt.”

“精神航空、边疆航空这类廉航处境最为艰难，”旅行积分比价服务Points Path创始人兼首席执行官朱利安·基尔表示。“设有高端舱位的航司可以将部分燃油成本转嫁给商务舱和头等舱旅客，这类乘客对涨价相对不敏感。但廉航没有这种缓冲，意味着乘客将承担全部冲击。”

But that doesn’t mean major global carriers won’t have to adjust prices. The efficiency of planes, often related to their age or engineering, and the distance they fly help determine how much fuel an airline consumes.

但这并不意味着大型国际航司无需调整价格。飞机的燃油效率（通常与机龄和设计相关）以及飞行距离都会决定航空公司的燃油消耗量。

“In addition to rising jet fuel prices, the war is creating a double hit for airlines, as many international flights now also have to detour around closed airspace, which means burning even more fuel,” said Mr. Kheel.

“除了航空燃油价格上涨，战争还给航空公司带来双重打击——许多国际航班现在必须绕开关闭的空域，这意味着消耗更多燃油，”基尔说。

The disruptions, restrictions and closures in Gulf cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha — critical aviation hubs for global traffic — are likely to affect pricing as well as routing. To avoid transiting through that region, international fliers are increasingly turning to Europe, which may tighten availability there and push prices higher.

迪拜、阿布扎比、多哈等海湾城市关键航空枢纽的混乱、管制与关闭也可能影响票价与航线。为避免过境该地区，国际航班正日益转向欧洲，这可能导致欧洲航线座位紧张、价格上涨。

How long will the situation last?

这种情况会持续多久？

No one knows how long the war will last, but historically, airfares have mirrored surges in the price of oil.

没人知道战争会持续多久，但从历史来看，机票价格会紧跟油价波动。

“If you look at prices in past oil crises in 2022 and 2008, you see spikes in flight prices,” said Scott Keyes, the founder of Going.com, a service devoted to finding cheap airfares.

“回顾2022年和2008年石油危机期间的价格，就能发现机票价格都出现了飙升，”廉价机票平台Going.com创始人斯科特·凯斯说。

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed up oil prices for much of the year, when the average U.S. annual inflation rate was 8 percent. In that case, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production, which helped bring prices down, said Mr. Harteveldt.

2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高了全年大部分时间的油价，当年美国平均通胀率达8%。哈特维尔特表示，当时石油输出国组织增加了产量，帮助压低了价格。

“We don’t know the end game with this war,” he said.

“我们不知道当前这场战争最终会走向何方，”他说。

Postwar recovery may add to the costs.

战后恢复也可能增加成本。

“The biggest factor impacting airfares is how long this all lasts,” said Mr. Keyes, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet from the Persian Gulf, which handles an estimated 20 percent of global oil supply. “The longer the shutdown, the longer it takes to get going.”

“影响机票价格的最大因素是这一切会持续多久，”凯斯说，并提到承担全球约20%石油供应的波斯湾出口通道霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。“封锁时间越长，恢复正常就越慢。”

Should I buy an airline ticket now?

我应该现在就买机票吗？

Consumers may have to hedge their bets on upcoming summer travel. The best way to do that is to ensure you are booking a penalty-free flight that will offer a flight credit or refund if you cancel. That way, in the best-case scenario, if the airfare falls, you can cancel and use the credit to rebook at a lower airfare.

消费者可能需要为即将到来的夏季旅行做好风险对冲。最佳方式是预订可免退改手续费的机票——若取消可获得机票代金券或退款。这样一来，在最佳情况下，如果后续票价下跌，你可以取消订单，用代金券重新预订更低价格的航班。

Most legacy carriers, but not their low-cost peers, still offer tickets that, if changed, give you a credit to use on a future flight, usually within a year. This does not apply to most basic economy fares, so book carefully.

大多数传统航空公司（但不包括廉航）仍提供改签后可获未来一年内有效代金券的机票。此政策不适用于大多数基础经济舱票价，因此预订时需留意。

“If you’re concerned about the price dropping later, you’re not out of luck,” said Mr. Keyes. “All things considered, I would be booking sooner rather than later but also checking the price after booking to see if it drops.”

“如果你担心之后价格下跌，也并非毫无办法，”凯斯说。“综合考虑，我建议尽早预订，但预订后也要关注价格是否下跌。”

In his 35 years, Balendra Shah has been a rapper, a mayor, an engineer and an unswerving fan of rectangular sunglasses. He is now on the brink of becoming Nepal’s youngest-ever prime minister after his party scored a landslide victory in elections last week.

现年35岁的巴伦德拉·沙阿是一名说唱歌手、市长、工程师，还是矩形墨镜的忠实拥趸。在上周的选举中，他领导的政党取得了压倒性胜利，使他即将成为尼泊尔历史上最年轻的总理。

The vote was the first since a Gen Z-led uprising last year overthrew a government that many Nepalis viewed as corrupt and out of touch. The Rastriya Swatantra Party, a young political force that positioned itself as the inheritor of the Gen Z revolution, received the largest mandate in Nepal’s modern electoral history, winning a significant majority of 275 parliamentary seats, according to official results released on Tuesday. Mr. Shah, a millennial with an often aggressive and aggrieved style on social media, is its pick to lead Nepal.

去年，一场由“Z世代”领导的起义推翻了被视为腐败且脱离群众的旧政府，本次投票正是该事件后的首次大选。周二公布的官方结果显示，以这场革命的继承者自居的政治新兴力量——国家自由党获得了尼泊尔现代选举史上最广泛的授权，赢得了议会275个席位中的绝对多数。该党推举的领导人沙阿是一名千禧一代，他在社交媒体上以激进且充满“愤青”色彩的风格著称。

Why did people vote for him?

为什么选民会投给他？

Technically, Nepal’s electorate picked the R.S.P. But many Nepalis did not cast their ballots last Thursday for a party; they voted for Balen, as Mr. Shah is popularly known.

理论上尼泊尔选民选择的是国家自由党。但上周四，许多选民投票并非为了政党，而是为了“巴伦”(Balen)——这是民众对沙阿的亲昵称呼。

“People are saying, ‘Balen is a savior for Nepal,’” said Sanjeev Humagain, a political scientist at Nepal Open University. “They’re saying, in a populist way, that he’s a god.”

尼泊尔公开大学的政治学者桑吉夫·胡马盖表示：“人们在说‘巴伦是尼泊尔的救世主’。从民粹主义的角度来看，他们几乎把他神化了。”

上周选举日，选民们在加德满都的巴桑塔布尔杜巴广场排队。

A socially conscious rapper, Mr. Shah has prided himself in not being bound to Nepal’s political establishment. Four years ago, he successfully ran as an independent for mayor of Kathmandu, the nation’s capital. He cultivated an image of a politician who got things done — tackling waste management, improving education and delivering health care — precisely because he wasn’t beholden to the ossified hierarchy of party politics.

作为一名具有社会意识的说唱歌手，沙阿一直以不依附于尼泊尔政治权贵而自豪。四年前，他以独立候选人身份成功当选首都加德满都的市长。他塑造了一个“实干派”政治家的形象：治理垃圾问题、改善教育、提供医疗服务——而这一切之所以能实现，恰恰是因为他不受制于僵化的政党等级制度。

As mayor, Mr. Shah lent early support to the Gen Z protesters, who had gathered peacefully in Kathmandu in September to condemn corruption and nepotism, as well as a sweeping social media ban. The protests quickly descended into violence when security forces killed unarmed young people. Mr. Shah branded K.P. Sharma Oli, who was prime minister during the fatal crackdown, a “terrorist.” Mr. Oli soon resigned, and the government collapsed.

担任市长期间，沙阿早期曾支持“Z世代”抗议者。去年9月，年轻人们在加德满都和平集会，谴责腐败、裙带关系以及政府对社交媒体的全面封杀。随后，安全部队杀害手无寸铁的青年的行为，令抗议迅速演变为暴力冲突。沙阿公开称时任总理奥利为“恐怖分子”。不久后，奥利辞职，政府垮台。

After the elections were called, Mr. Shah chose to fight for the seat in Parliament that Mr. Oli, four decades his senior, had long held. He won with more than three-and-a-half times the number of votes.

宣布大选后，沙阿选择挑战奥利长期把持的议会席位。尽管奥利比他年长40岁，沙阿最终仍以超过对方3.5倍的票数胜出。

What is Balen’s vibe?

“巴伦”的风格是什么样的？

Punchy and volatile. But also a bit mysterious. He hides his expression behind his signature rectangular sunglasses, which he insists on wearing indoors.

犀利、多变，且带着一丝神秘。他总是躲在标志性的矩形墨镜后面，甚至在室内也坚持佩戴。

Mr. Shah rarely gives news conferences or media interviews. Instead, he communicates through social media, where his reach is unmatched by other Nepali celebrities; he has 3.7 million followers on Facebook, in a nation of 30 million people.

沙阿很少举行新闻发布会或接受媒体采访。相反，他通过社交媒体发声，其影响力令尼泊尔其他名人望尘莫及：在这个拥有3000万人口的国家，他的Facebook粉丝数高达370万。

He has railed against the three big nations — the United States, China and India — and the three big Nepali political parties that for years had a stranglehold on the country’s politics. And, before he joined it in January, he also venomously criticized the R.S.P.

他曾炮轰中美印三大国，也抨击过多年来把持国家政治的三大尼泊尔政党。甚至在今年1月加入国家自由党之前，他对如今所属的政党也进行过尖刻的批评。

“All politicians, new and old, are thieves,” he wrote on social media.

他曾在社交媒体上写道：“所有的政治家，无论新旧，全是小偷。”

国家自由党获得了尼泊尔现代选举史上最广泛的民意授权。

Mr. Shah has expressed admiration for the managerial acumen of dictators like Hitler and ranted on social media about perceived slights — a hair trigger reflex that may not work when he assumes leadership of Nepal.

沙阿曾表达过对希特勒等独裁者管理手腕的钦佩，并常在社交媒体上针对他认为的“冒犯”进行还击。这种“一点就着”的反应，在他接掌国家领导权后可能并不适用。

What is his music like?

他的音乐作品如何？

A poet who learned to style his verse to a beat, Mr. Shah is a troubadour of the streets. Although he grew up comfortably as the son of a traditional medicine doctor, he wrote lyrics that championed the underdog and decried the powerful, in the mold of his inspirations, Tupac Shakur and 50 Cent.

作为一位擅长将诗句融入节奏的诗人，沙阿是街头的吟唱者。尽管出身于传统医生家庭，成长环境优渥，但他创作的歌词多为弱势群体发声，谴责权贵。他的灵感源自2Pac和50 Cent等偶像。

In a country dominated by the Himalayas, Mr. Shah is on track to be the first prime minister of Nepal considered a son of Madhesh, the lowland province bordering India. People from the southern plains, who make up more than half the nation’s population, have long felt like second-class citizens.

在这个以喜马拉雅山区为主的国家，沙阿有望成为首位被视为“马德西之子”的总理。马德西是接壤印度的平原省份，那里的人口占全国一半以上，却长期感觉自己像二等公民。

One of Mr. Shah’s songs, released this year, expresses his sympathies to Nepalis, many of them from the lowlands, who by the millions work overseas because of official corruption that stymies their job opportunities at home.

沙阿今年发布的一首歌表达了对低地同胞的同情。由于官方腐败阻碍了国内就业，数百万尼泊尔人不得不远赴海外务工。

“Money seems to grow on trees for those who sell their integrity, those who step on others, those who are selfish, those who write lies, those who oppress,” the song goes.

歌词写道：“对那些出卖廉耻的人，踩着他人上位的人，自私的人，编造谎言的人，压迫他人的人，钱似乎长在树上。”

What kind of leader will he be?

他会成为什么样的领导人？

As mayor of Kathmandu, Mr. Shah often acted first and figured out the procedural niceties later. He tried to bulldoze a squatter settlement that he found unbecoming. To make a point about slow road construction, he ordered a dump truck to deposit trash in front of the Department of Roads.

在担任加德满都市长期间，沙阿经常“先斩后奏”。他曾试图强拆他认为影响市容的贫民窟；为了抗议道路建设进度缓慢，他曾命令翻斗车直接将垃圾倾倒在道路局门前。

2022年，时任加德满都市长沙阿视察首都的一处下水道施工现场。

Mr. Shah reserved power for a small coterie of aides who dedicated themselves to ripping up red tape while icing out other bureaucrats.

沙阿习惯将权力保留在由一小撮亲信组成的圈子里，他们致力于打破繁琐的行政程序，同时也将其他官僚排挤在外。

As leader of Nepal, Mr. Shah will have to be more flexible. Although his party has a large majority in the lower house, it doesn’t have a single seat in the upper house, making passing major legislation tough.

作为尼泊尔的领导人，沙阿必须变得更加灵活。尽管他的政党在众议院拥有多数席位，但在参议院却未获一席，这将使重大立法的通过变得困难重重。

“We have a lot of problems in Nepal,” said Mr. Humagain, the political scientist. “One man, even Balen, is going to have learn a lot about compromise, communication and teamwork.”

政治学者胡马盖指出：“尼泊尔面临许多问题。即便是一个像巴伦这样的人，也必须在妥协、沟通与团队协作方面多学习。”

Since the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has given conflicting indications on how long it will continue.

自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，特朗普总统对于战事将持续多长时间给出了相互矛盾的说法。

After he said near the outset of the war that it could last “four to five weeks,” the president and members of his administration have issued shifting statements on the timeline and the goals for the war.

他在战争初期曾表示，战事可能持续“四到五周”。但此后，总统及其政府成员不断就战争时间表和目标发表前后不一的说法。

They have at times suggested that the United States was striving to topple Iran’s government and achieve an “unconditional surrender” and will continue an assault as long as it takes. At others, Mr. Trump and his officials have delivered the message that the war had already succeeded in its objective of decimating Iran’s military.

他们时而暗示美国的目标是力求推翻伊朗政府，实现“无条件投降”，并且必要的话会一直打下去；时而特朗普及其官员又表示，战争已达成摧毁伊朗军力的目标。

That has left wide-open the possibilities for how the conflict with Iran could wind down and how long it will take, even as some in his administration try to assure the public that the United States will not be drawn into another long war in the Middle East.

这使得伊朗冲突将如何收场、需要多长时间结束都充满不确定性，即便特朗普政府内部的一些人试图向公众保证，美国不会再次卷入一场中东长期战争。

Here’s a look at officials’ often contradictory statements since the war began.

以下是自战争爆发以来，官员们往往相互矛盾的表态。

March 1

3月1日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘We intended four to five weeks.’

“我们打算持续四到五周。”

In an interview with The New York Times the day after the initial strikes on Iran, Mr. Trump already had contradictory visions of how the war would pan out.

在对伊朗发动初步打击的次日接受本报采访时，特朗普对这场战争将如何发展已经表现出了相互矛盾的看法。

He said that the United States and Israel intended to continue the assault for about a month, and predicted that it “won’t be difficult.” But he did not seem to have decided on what changes among Iran’s government he would consider a victory.

他说，美国和以色列打算将攻击持续大约一个月时间，并预测这“不会很难”。但对于伊朗政府需要发生哪些变化才算胜利，他似乎还没有明确的想法。

March 2

3月2日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯

‘This is not Iraq. This is not endless.’


“这不是伊拉克。这不会没完没了。”

During a news conference at the Pentagon last week with Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mr. Hegseth suggested the campaign was being kept to a smaller scope compared with the “nation-building quagmire” of past American interventions in the Middle East.

上周，在五角大楼与参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军举行的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯表示，这次行动被控制在较小规模，与以往美国在中东干预行动中的那种“国家建设泥潭”不同。

He suggested this campaign could take anywhere from two to eight weeks, not settling on a number.

他暗示，这场军事行动可能持续两到八周，但没有给出一个确定的时间。

March 2

3月2日


Gen. Dan Caine

丹·凯恩将军

‘This is not a single overnight operation.’

“这不是一夜之间就能完成的行动。”

At the same news conference, General Caine dismissed any suggestion that the U.S. campaign in Iran might mirror the one in Venezuela earlier this year and said that the Pentagon’s military objectives would “take some time to achieve.”

在同一场新闻发布会上，凯恩将军驳回了外界关于美国在伊朗的军事行动可能会像今年早些时候在委内瑞拉的行动那样迅速结束的说法，并表示五角大楼的军事目标“需要一些时间才能实现”。

He added, “We expect to take additional losses.”

他还补充说：“我们预计将承受更多损失。”

March 2

3月2日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘Whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes.’

“不管需要多长时间，不管付出什么代价，都可以。”

As his defense secretary assured the United States would not be dragged into a long conflict, Mr. Trump said the United States was “substantially ahead of our time projections,” which had put the campaign at four to five weeks.

就在他的国防部长向美国保证不会卷入长期冲突的同时，特朗普表示，美国目前“远远领先于原先的时间预期”，而此前的预期是将战事控制在四到五周。

But he added that the United States had the capability “to go far longer than that.”

不过他又补充说，美国也有能力“把行动持续得比这更久”。

March 6

3月6日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’

“与伊朗不会有任何交易，除了无条件投降”

Six days into the bombing campaign, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to demand that Iran capitulate and said that the United States and its allies would “work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

轰炸行动进行到第六天，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖，要求伊朗投降，并称美国及其盟友将“不懈努力，把伊朗从毁灭的边缘救回来，使其经济比以前更大、更好、更强”。

That appeared to shift the timeline further, into both regime change and rebuilding Iran, even as its current leaders have expressed defiance and expanded the battlefield by striking American bases across the Middle East.

这似乎进一步拉长了时间线，将目标扩展至政权更迭和重建伊朗，尽管伊朗现任领导人表现出强硬态度，并通过袭击美国在中东各地的基地来扩大战场。

March 6

3月6日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘The achievable objectives of Operation Epic Fury we expect to last about four to six weeks.’

“我们预计‘史诗愤怒行动’可实现的目标大约需要四到六周。”

Later that day, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was asked what the president would consider a surrender.

当天晚些时候，白宫新闻秘书莱维特女士被问及在总统看来，怎样才算投降。

She declined to give a timeline beyond the plan she said the president had laid out. But she seemed to soften his demand for a surrender, saying it would “essentially” occur when Mr. Trump concluded his war objectives had been met.

她没有给出比总统此前所提出计划更具体的时间表。但她似乎在一定程度上缓和了总统对投降的要求，表示所谓的投降“基本上”就是当特朗普认定他的战争目标已经实现的时候。

March 7

3月7日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘This is a short excursion.’

“这只是一次短暂的行动。”

After attending the dignified transfer of six American service members who were killed when Iran struck a command center in Kuwait, Mr. Trump suggested to reporters that the United States was achieving its military objectives.

在出席为六名阵亡美军士兵举行的庄严的灵柩回国迎接仪式后——他们是在伊朗袭击科威特一处指挥中心时丧生的——特朗普向记者表示，美国正在达成军事目标。

“We’re winning the war by a lot,” he said. “We decimated their whole evil empire.”

“我们正以巨大优势赢得这场战争，”他说。“我们摧毁了他们整个邪恶帝国。”

Asked if he was worried about high gas prices, which have risen nearly 17 percent since the war began, he said he was not and that the campaign would be “short.”

当被问及是否担心油价上涨时——自战争开始以来油价已上涨近17%——他说并不担心，并表示这场行动将是“短暂的”。

March 9

3月9日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘The war is very complete, pretty much.’

“这场战争基本上已经结束，差不多了。”

U.S. markets rebounded at the start of this week after Mr. Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule.”

美国市场本周一开始反弹，此前特朗普告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道，战争“基本上已经结束，差不多了”，并且“大大快于计划”。

But after markets closed, in remarks to Republican lawmakers gathered for a retreat in Florida and in a news conference afterward, he left open the possibility of more comprehensive aims, even as he said the war would end “soon, very soon.”

但在股市收盘后，他在佛罗里达州向参加一个闭门会议的共和党议员发表讲话，并在随后举行的新闻发布会上表示，这场战争的目标不排除扩大的可能，尽管他同时称战争将“很快、非常快”结束。

“We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all,” he said.

“我们比以往任何时候都更坚定地向前迈进，争取取得最终胜利，彻底结束这一长期存在的威胁，”他说。

March 10

3月10日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯


‘It’s not for me to posit whether it’s the beginning, the middle or the end.’

“这是不是开始、中段还是结束，并不是由我来下结论的。”

At a news conference on Tuesday with General Caine, Mr. Hegseth joined others in the administration in asserting that Mr. Trump alone was in charge of the timeline.

在周二与凯恩将军共同举行的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯与政府其他人一样，坚称战争时间表完全由特朗普总统决定。

“He gets to control the throttle,” Mr. Hegseth said, though he added, “I want the American people to understand is this is not endless. It’s not protracted.”

“他掌握着油门，”赫格塞斯说，不过他又补充道，“我希望美国人民明白，这不是一场无休止的战争。这不会是一场持久战。”

March 10

3月10日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘President Trump will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender.’

“特朗普总统将决定伊朗何时达到无条件投降的状态。”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, the press secretary again appeared to qualify Mr. Trump’s demand of “unconditional surrender.”

周二对记者发表讲话时，这位白宫新闻秘书似乎再次对特朗普的“无条件投降”要求进行了限定。

“When President Trump says that Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender, he’s not claiming the Iranian regime is going to come out and say that themselves,” Ms. Leavitt said. She added that Mr. Trump would decide when Iran no longer posed “a credible and direct threat.”

“当特朗普总统表示伊朗已达到无条件投降的状态时，他并不是说伊朗政权会自己走出来宣布投降，”莱维特女士说。她还表示，将由特朗普来决定伊朗何时不再构成“可信且直接的威胁”。

In the first two months of the year, before the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East paralyzed energy supply lines, China ramped up its oil purchases as part of a continued strategy to shield the country from rising geopolitical tensions.

今年前两个月，在中东冲突爆发导致能源供应线瘫痪之前，作为应对地缘政治紧张局势的持续战略，中国已加大石油采购力度。

The world’s largest buyer of oil, China imported 15.8 percent more oil in January and February over the same period last year, according to customs data released by China on Tuesday.

中国官方周二公布的海关数据显示，作为全球最大石油买家，中国今年1至2月的石油进口量较去年同期增长15.8%。

Beijing has been building up its strategic stockpile over the past year, even as domestic oil consumption has continued to fall. All that oil is now expected to come in handy.

过去一年，尽管国内石油消费量持续下降，中国仍在不断扩充战略石油储备。如今，这些储备预计将派上用场。

“Oil stockpiling has been taking place for a while now, and Chinese regulators were already preparing for geopolitical tensions to arise from the Trump administration,” said Cosimo Ries, an energy analyst at Trivium China, a consulting firm. “It was a strategic step which, in hindsight, was pretty wise.”

“石油储备工作已经进行了一段时间，中国监管部门此前就在为特朗普政府可能引发的地缘政治紧张做准备，”咨询机构Trivium China的能源分析师科西莫·里斯表示。“事后看来，这是相当明智的战略举措。”

President Trump has launched attacks on two of China’s cheapest sources of oil, Venezuela and Iran. Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, was ousted and brought to the United States, where he is in a federal prison in New York awaiting trial. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on Feb. 28 during U.S. and Israeli military strikes.

特朗普政府已对中国的两大廉价石油来源委内瑞拉和伊朗发起打击。委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被推翻并押往美国，目前关押在纽约联邦监狱等候审判。伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊则在2月28日的美以军事打击中身亡。

The leadership changes in both countries have thrown into question the lucrative deals that China had secured with the two countries to buy oil sanctioned by the United States. Mr. Trump has said that the United States will take over Venezuela’s oil industry. In Iran, the source of 13 percent of China’s oil imports, the Trump administration’s plans are not yet clear.

两国的政权更迭使中国此前与两国达成的购买受美国制裁石油的大笔协议蒙上阴影。特朗普曾表示，美国将接管委内瑞拉石油工业。而伊朗占中国石油进口量的13%，特朗普政府针对伊朗的具体计划尚不明确。

Experts said they expected China to continue building up its energy security now, as the war in Iran disrupts traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. China imports around half of its seaborne crude oil from the Middle East.

专家表示，随着伊朗战争扰乱霍尔木兹海峡航运——这条狭窄水道承载着全球五分之一的石油供应，预计中国将进一步加强能源安全保障。中国约一半的海运原油进口来自中东。

Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday that “China will take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.”

中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周二表示：“中国将采取必要措施，保障自身能源安全。”

Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, a market research firm, said the government’s priority is to ensure stable fuel supplies and it may take steps, such as “instructing refiners to halt fuel exports and potentially lending or releasing crude reserves to refiners.”

市场研究公司Kpler的高级原油分析师徐沐雨（音）称，中国政府当前的优先事项是确保燃油供应稳定，并可能采取相关措施，例如“要求炼油企业暂停燃油出口，或向炼油企业投放、出借原油储备”。

China has been buying more oil over the past year for its strategic stockpile, which stands at roughly 1.2 billion barrels, or about 115 days of its seaborne crude imports, according to Ms. Xu.

徐沐雨表示，过去一年中国持续增加石油进口以充实战略储备，目前规模约为12亿桶，相当于约115天的海运原油进口量。

Much of this has been strategic. China significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil this year as India pulled back its own buying amid negotiations with the United States on a trade deal that stipulated it replace its Russian supply.

此举很大程度上出于战略考量。今年印度在与美国谈判贸易协议期间缩减了俄罗斯石油采购，该协议要求印度替换俄罗斯石油供应，中国则大幅增加了对俄罗斯石油的购买。

The surge in oil imports helped to spur China’s robust trade growth in the first two months of the year. Imports surged nearly 20 percent in January and February, a sharp increase after imports remained mostly flat in 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese exports continued to grow rapidly, rising 22 percent in the two-month period and building on last year’s record outpouring of Chinese-made goods abroad.

石油进口激增推动了中国今年前两个月的贸易强劲增长。1月至2月，中国进口额飙升近20%，较2025年基本持平的进口态势呈现显著增长。与此同时，中国出口延续高速增长，两个月内增长22%，延续了去年创纪录的商品出口势头。

From the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to the war in the Middle East, 2026 has served as a powerful reminder of oil’s enduring influence in geopolitics and the global economy.

从抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗到中东战火爆发，2026年有力地提醒世人：石油在地缘政治与全球经济中拥有持久的影响力。

Oil has been both a prize, as in Venezuela, and a potent tool of political coercion, as seen in the U.S. blockade that is starving Cuba of energy. And now, after oil breached $100 a barrel for the first time in almost four years, the economic risks of going even a short time without full access to energy from the Persian Gulf are becoming clearer by the day.

在委内瑞拉，石油是一种战利品，在美国封锁古巴、使其陷入能源短缺的情况下，石油又是一种强力政治胁迫工具。如今，在油价近四年来首次突破每桶100美元之后，哪怕只是短期内无法全面获得波斯湾能源的经济风险也正日益凸显。

With oil front and center, it feels almost like revisiting an earlier time, before countries began embracing renewable energy and before the United States became the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas.

石油重回舞台中心，这让人仿佛回到过去的年代——那时各国尚未全面接受可再生能源，美国也未成为全球最大石油和天然气生产国。

There is little sign that the war with Iran will cause the kind of economic pain experienced about a half-century ago, when oil met almost half of the world’s energy needs and an embargo by members of an oil cartel caused prices to quadruple in a matter of months. That tipped the U.S. economy into a period of high inflation and stagnant economic growth. But it is clear that going without as much oil and natural gas as the world is used to, even briefly, will strain economies around the world.

目前几乎没有迹象表明，对伊朗的战争会造成大约半个世纪前那样的经济阵痛。当时石油满足全球近半能源需求，石油输出国组织成员实施禁运，油价在数月内涨幅达四倍，将美国经济拖入高通胀与经济增长停滞的困境。但显而易见的是：即便只是短暂失去全球惯常的油气供应，也会给全球经济带来压力。

“The old game is back more than people thought it would ever be,” said Elliott Abrams, who served as a special representative for Iran and Venezuela during the first Trump administration.

“旧的游戏卷土重来，程度远超人们预期，”特朗普第一任期内负责伊朗与委内瑞拉事务的特别代表埃利奥特·艾布拉姆斯表示。

The world remains dependent on reliable oil and gas supplies, even though two-thirds of global spending in the energy sector now go to cleaner alternatives such as solar power that are growing much more quickly.

尽管如今全球能源领域三分之二的支出投向太阳能等增长更快的清洁能源，世界依然依赖可靠的油气供应。

While oil now meets a smaller share of global energy needs than it used to — less than 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency — the world uses almost twice as much of the fuel as it did in the early 1970s. And natural gas, used to heat homes and generate electricity, underpins much more of the economy than it used to.

尽管石油在全球能源需求中的占比已低于往昔——国际能源署数据显示，这一数字已不足30%，但全球石油消耗量几乎是20世纪70年代初的两倍。而用于家庭供暖和发电的天然气对经济的支撑作用也比过去大得多。

“The post-oil world remains far in the future,” said David Sandalow, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who served in the Clinton and Obama administrations. “We’re in the early to middle stages of an energy transition, but energy transitions take time.”

“后石油时代仍遥遥无期，”曾在克林顿和奥巴马政府任职、现哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心研究员戴维·桑德罗表示。“我们正处于能源转型的初期至中期，而能源转型需要时间。”

Of course, disruptions like the war in Iran may accelerate the move to alternative sources of energy, particularly in places that lack easy access to fossil fuels, while pushing countries to use energy more efficiently. U.S. fuel-economy standards are an enduring legacy of the 1973 oil embargo, for example.

当然，伊朗战争这类供应中断可能会加速能源转型，尤其是在化石燃料获取不便的地区，同时推动各国提高能源使用效率。例如，美国的燃油经济性标准就是1973年石油禁运留下的长久遗产。

The widening conflict in the Middle East, which began with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, has all but blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that serves as the gateway to market for one-fifth of the world’s oil and substantial amounts of natural gas. Several refineries in the region have shut down or cut processing, some after sustaining damage, according to Kpler, a research firm. That means they are turning less oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

2月28日美以袭击伊朗引发的中东冲突扩大，几乎封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。这条狭窄水道承载着全球五分之一的石油和大量天然气的外销通道。研究公司克普勒表示，该地区多家炼油厂已停产或减产，部分是因遭受破坏。这意味着原油转化为汽油、柴油和航空燃油等燃料的产能将会减少。

That disruption — and concern that it might last for some time — sent international oil prices up around 37 percent since late February. Fuel prices quickly followed, with especially large gains in the cost of diesel and jet fuel.

这次供应中断，加之市场对其可能持续一段时间的担忧，推动国际油价自2月下旬以来上涨约37%。燃油价格紧随其后，柴油和航空燃油涨幅尤为显著。

上周，加利福尼亚州卡尔斯巴德市的汽油价格已突破每加仑五美元。

Qatar, meantime, stopped cooling natural gas for export last week, citing military attacks. That sent natural gas prices soaring in Europe and in Asia, which depend heavily on imported fuel. The United States, as the world’s top natural gas producer, has been comparatively insulated. (The natural gas market is much more regional than the oil market, largely because the colorless fuel is harder to transport.)

与此同时，卡塔尔上周以遭受军事袭击为由，暂停天然气液化出口，导致高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲和亚洲天然气价格暴涨。作为全球最大天然气生产国，美国相对未受影响。（天然气市场比石油更具区域性，主要因为这种无色燃料更难运输。）

Gasoline and diesel prices have been climbing at a time when many Americans are already worried about the economy and inflation. Many of those economic concerns can be traced to the last major energy disruption, after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

在许多美国人本就担忧经济与通胀之际，汽油和柴油价格持续攀升。这些经济焦虑很大程度上可追溯到2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的上一次重大能源危机。

Gasoline prices, which briefly topped $5 a gallon that year, had fallen considerably, so much so that the relatively low cost of filling up served as a counterweight to rising prices elsewhere in the economy — and a point of pride for President Trump. The war with Iran carries political risk for Mr. Trump, not least because of the toll that higher energy prices will most likely take on the U.S. economy.

当年美国汽油价格曾短暂突破每加仑五美元，此后大幅回落，低廉的加油成本成为对冲其他领域物价上涨的重要因素，也是特朗普总统引以为傲的政绩。与伊朗的战争对特朗普而言存在政治风险，尤其是高能源价格很可能拖累美国经济。

It is no coincidence that oil has re-emerged as both geopolitical tool and economic threat during a period when the United States is unwinding trading relationships and clashing with other great powers, said Meghan O’Sullivan, a deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan under President George W. Bush.

曾在小布什政府负责伊拉克和阿富汗事务的副国家安全顾问梅根·奥沙利文表示，在美国重塑贸易关系并与其他大国发生冲突的时期，石油重新成为地缘政治工具和经济威胁，这并非巧合。

“The energy weapon never went away, but there’s a whole confluence of global conditions — and then individual decisions by the Trump administration and others — that have really brought it back to the fore,” said Dr. O’Sullivan, now a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. “Energy can be a tool of foreign policy, but it can also be an objective.”

“能源武器从未消失，但一系列全球形势叠加特朗普政府等各方的决策，确实让它重新回到前台，”现任哈佛大学肯尼迪学院教授的奥沙利文说，“能源可以是外交政策工具，也可以是政策目标。”

For the latter, look no further than Mr. Trump’s pursuit of oil in Venezuela. And in recent weeks, the United States has blocked Cuba from accessing oil in an attempt to topple the country’s Communist government. Starved of energy, the island nation, which is exceptionally dependent on imported fuel, is facing a humanitarian crisis and widespread power outages.

后者最鲜明的例证莫过于特朗普对委内瑞拉石油的争夺。最近几周，美国切断古巴的石油供应，试图推翻其共产党政府。这个极度依赖进口燃料的岛国因能源匮乏，正面临人道主义危机和大范围停电。

In the Middle East, Iran has leaned on one of its strategic advantages: its ability to disrupt the flow of oil and natural gas through the Persian Gulf and hurt economies around the world.

在中东，伊朗正依靠自身一大战略优势：有能力扰乱波斯湾油气运输，冲击全球经济。

“This is going to underscore yet again how exposed countries are to energy sources that are produced outside their borders,” Dr. O’Sullivan said.

“这将再次凸显各国对境外能源供应的依赖程度，”奥沙利文说。

上周哈瓦那停电期间，人们在面包店外排队。美国的封锁正使古巴陷入能源短缺的困境。

How countries respond to the war in the long run will hinge partly on the severity of the economic fallout from higher energy prices. Reactions are also likely to vary by region, pushing countries in Asia and Europe that do not produce much oil or natural gas to adopt renewable energy faster. The United States, awash in oil and natural gas, may continue to lean into those strengths, at least under Mr. Trump, even though burning the fuels accelerates climate change.

各国对这场战争的长期应对策略部分取决于能源价格上涨带来的经济冲击程度。不同地区反应或将呈现差异：油气匮乏的亚洲和欧洲国家可能加快可再生能源部署；而油气资源丰富的美国，至少在特朗普执政下，可能继续倚重这一优势，尽管燃烧化石燃料会加速气候变化进程。

“For any country that does not have substantial supplies of oil and gas, a no-brainer conclusion is that investment in renewables plus storage is strategic from an energy security point of view,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, a former Obama administration official who is now dean and professor of energy and environmental policy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.

“对任何油气资源匮乏的国家来说，一个显而易见的结论是：从能源安全角度看，投资可再生能源及储能具有战略意义，”曾在奥巴马政府任职、现塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院院长兼能源与环境政策教授凯利·西姆斯·加拉格尔表示。

Clean energy comes with its own geopolitical risks, including greater reliance on China, which dominates the production of everything from solar panels to wind turbines and rechargeable batteries.

清洁能源也伴随地缘政治风险，包括对中国的依赖度上升——中国在太阳能板、风力涡轮机、可充电电池等诸多领域占据主导地位。

But unlike oil and gas, which countries need on an ongoing basis, securing wind and solar equipment is more of a one-time risk. Once a country has the tools to harness the sun and the wind, the energy sources themselves cannot be taken away.

但与各国持续依赖的油气不同，获取风能和太阳能设备更多属于一次性风险。一旦一个国家拥有了利用太阳能和风能的工具，这些能源本身就无法被夺走。

“You can’t weaponize the sun,” said Catherine Wolfram, a deputy assistant secretary for climate and energy economics in the Treasury Department in the Biden administration. “You can’t weaponize the wind.”

“你没法把太阳变成武器，”拜登政府财政部负责气候与能源经济的副助理部长凯瑟琳·沃尔弗拉姆说。“你也没法把风变成武器。”

Within hours of the first Israeli and American airstrikes hitting Iran last weekend, militiamen from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps deployed in neighborhoods across Tehran, the capital, and in most urban centers.

上周末，以色列和美国对伊朗发动首轮空袭后数小时内，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的武装人员便部署到首都德黑兰及大多数城市中心的各个街区。

Eyewitnesses and the occasional furtive video posted online depicted men in plainclothes, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles, manning checkpoints where they searched cars and cellphones, alert for signs of endorsing the war. Black anti-riot vehicles were lined up in places like closed schoolyards that were less likely to be struck by missiles.

目击者和网上零星流出的偷拍视频显示，身穿便衣、手持卡拉什尼科夫突击步枪的人员在检查站值守，盘查车辆与手机，警惕任何支持这场战争的迹象。黑色防暴车辆停在封闭校园等不太可能被导弹击中的地方。

“They tried to create the illusion for outsiders that they are in control, and inside to create fear for people so they do not dare come out to the street,” said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee and the author of “Captive Society: The Basij Militia and Social Control in Post-Revolutionary Iran.”

“他们试图对外界制造掌控一切的假象，对内制造恐惧，让人们不敢走上街头，”美国田纳西大学政治学教授、《被禁锢的社会——巴斯基民兵与革命后伊朗的社会控制》一书作者赛义德·戈尔卡尔表示。

President Trump has suggested that the Guards drop their weapons to buttress popular support for regime change. Analysts consider that scenario highly unlikely. Iran might appear to be a theocracy, and its official ideology is firmly rooted in Shiite Islam, but the Guards constitute the spine of a militarized state. Analysts consider their pervasive military, political and economic clout the main barrier to regime change, or any change, in Iran.

特朗普总统曾暗示革命卫队放下武器，助力民众对政权更迭的支持。分析人士认为这种情况极不可能发生。伊朗表面上是神权国家，官方意识形态牢牢植根于什叶派伊斯兰教，但革命卫队构成了这个军事化国家的支柱。分析人士认为，革命卫队在军事、政治与经济领域的广泛影响力，是阻碍伊朗政权更迭乃至任何变革的主要障碍。

Here is a primer on this powerful group.

以下是关于这个强大组织的基本介绍。

1980年两伊战争期间，伊朗卡斯尔希林附近的一名革命卫队士兵。

What is the I.R.G.C.?

什么是伊斯兰革命卫队？

In the early days of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, did not trust the armed forces, known as Artesh, a Farsi word for army. He was said to have muttered, “Artesh has the Shah in its blood.”

1979年伊斯兰革命初期，革命缔造者阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼不信任正规军伊斯兰共和国军队（波斯语称“阿尔特什”）。据说他曾低声说：“阿尔特什的血液里有沙阿的血统。”

So he organized a parallel armed force, the I.R.G.C., charged specifically with safeguarding the revolution. The core of the group were members of neighborhood committees, often organized around a mosque, that had been established to protect their areas and to liquidate perceived enemies of the revolution.

于是他组建了一支平行武装力量——伊斯兰革命卫队，专门负责捍卫革命成果。该组织的核心来自社区委员会的成员，这些委员会通常以清真寺为中心建立，旨在保护辖区并清除革命的潜在敌人。

The eight-year war that started when Iraq invaded in 1980 molded the Guards into a more cohesive force. The Guards took on tasks like building a missile development program virtually from scratch; Washington, its main arms supplier, had severed ties after the revolution.

1980年伊拉克入侵引发的八年战争将革命卫队塑造成更具凝聚力的力量。卫队承担起几乎从零开始的导弹研发计划等任务；革命后，美国这一主要武器供应国已切断了对伊朗的关系。

After the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, the new supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, turned the Guards into an elite force, marrying his office to its power, while allowing it to expand into politics and the economy.

1989年霍梅尼去世后，新任最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊将革命卫队打造成精锐部队，将其权力与最高领袖办公室绑定，同时允许其涉足政治与经济领域。

The Guards established a separate wing to manage reconstruction after the Iraq war. The group still builds roads, dams and other infrastructure. It also became adept at smuggling goods in and out of Iran, including oil, in response to Western economic sanctions imposed after 2002, when Iran’s then secretive nuclear development program was exposed.

革命卫队在伊拉克战争后成立了专门部门负责重建，至今仍在修建道路、水坝等基础设施。为应对2002年伊朗秘密核计划曝光后西方的经济制裁，卫队也开始精通石油等物资的进出口走私。

Today, the Guards control at least 25 percent of the economy and perhaps twice that amount, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

华盛顿国防民主基金会高级研究员贝赫纳姆·本·塔莱布卢表示，如今革命卫队控制着伊朗至少25%的经济，实际比例还可能翻倍。

By toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, the United States created an opening for the Guards to expand across the Middle East, using its Quds Force to build an axis of mostly Shiite Muslim militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. The Guards then became a major foreign policy player.

2003年美国推翻萨达姆·侯赛因，为革命卫队向中东扩张创造了契机。革命卫队通过圣城旅在黎巴嫩、叙利亚、伊拉克、也门和加沙建立起以什叶派民兵为主的轴心，由此成为重要的外交政策参与者。

2024年德黑兰阅兵式上的革命卫队。

How are the Guards structured?

革命卫队如何建构？

The Guards number between 125,000 and 180,000 men. Analysts peg the country’s overall security forces at up to 1.5 million, including the police. Not all Guards are armed; some work in fields like construction or cultural programs.

革命卫队兵力在12.5万至18万人之间。分析人士估计，包括警察在内，伊朗全国安全部队总人数高达150万。并非所有卫队成员都武装执勤，部分人员从事建筑、文化项目等工作。

There are four main military branches — ground, naval and aerospace forces along with the Quds Force, which is responsible for foreign operations. In addition, the Guards control various allied organizations including their own intelligence agency, as well as the Basij neighborhood militias.

革命卫队下设四大军事分支：地面部队、海军、空天部队以及负责境外行动的圣城旅。此外，卫队还控制着各类附属机构，包括自身的情报部门和巴斯基社区民兵。

The Guards follow a so-called “mosaic” strategy that emerged from both seeing the rapid collapse of central authority in Iraq during the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the domestic effort to squash the Green Movement, the nationwide antigovernment protests in 2009. A decentralized command structure was intended to insure that the Guards could maintain domestic control in case the provinces were ever cut off from Tehran, or could overcome any vacuum in the absence of the supreme leader, the ultimate decision maker.

卫队奉行所谓“马赛克战略”，这一策略源于2003年美国入侵伊拉克时该国中央政权迅速崩溃的教训，以及2009年镇压全国性反政府抗议浪潮“绿色运动”的经验。这种分散式指挥结构旨在确保，即便各省与德黑兰失联，或最高领袖这一最终决策者缺位，卫队仍能填补权力真空。

The strategy was further refined last June to strengthen Iran’s defense against an external enemy, analysts said, after Ayatollah Khamenei was a target of a 12-day war waged by Israel and the United States.

分析人士称，去年6月，在哈梅内伊成为美以发动的12天战争的打击目标后，这一战略经过了进一步完善，以强化伊朗抵御外部敌人的能力。

“They are acting according to the playbook,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. “The system is functioning without Khamenei.”

“他们正按预案行动，”柏林德国国际与安全事务研究所客座研究员哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹表示。“在没有哈梅内伊的情况下，这套体系仍在运转。”

While following a central blueprint, regional commanders have autonomy on decisions like when to launch missiles or drones. There are 31 commands, one for each province, with even smaller branches meant to puncture domestic protests in virtually every neighborhood.

在遵循中央蓝图的同时，地区指挥官在发射导弹或无人机等决策上拥有自主权。全国共设31个指挥部（每个省份各设一个），还有更基层的分支，几乎渗透到每个社区，以镇压抗议活动。

The current war, with the leadership in Tehran degraded, “is exactly the type of moment that the mosaic doctrine was meant to respond to,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”

《野心之战——美国、伊朗与中东争夺战》作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔指出，当前战争中，德黑兰领导层遭遇重创，“这正是马赛克战略旨在应对的时刻”。

阿赫迈德·瓦希迪准将于3月1日被任命为革命卫队新任指挥官。

Who commands the Guards?

革命卫队由谁指挥？

Israeli and American attacks have killed two Guards commanders, one in June and the second on Feb. 28.

美以袭击已造成两名卫队指挥官身亡，一人在6月遇袭，另一人在2月28日遇袭。

A veteran hard-line officer with a reputation for brutality, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, was appointed on March 1 to head the Guards. A former minister of the interior and defense, he was a founding commander of the Quds Force in 1988, leading it for eight years.

以残暴著称的资深强硬派军官艾哈迈德·瓦希迪准将于3月1日被任命为革命卫队总司令。他曾任内政部长与国防部长，1988年参与创建圣城旅并担任指挥官八年。

Mr. Vahidi is suspected of fostering overseas organizations that carried out terrorist attacks at Iran’s behest, including a deadly bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 people. Argentina, accusing Mr. Vahidi of approving the attack carried out by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, unsuccessfully sought his arrest through Interpol. Iran has repeatedly denied any involvement.

瓦希迪被怀疑扶持境外组织执行伊朗指使的恐怖袭击，包括1994年布宜诺斯艾利斯犹太社区中心爆炸案，该事件造成85人死亡。阿根廷指控瓦希迪批准黎巴嫩真主党实施袭击，曾通过国际刑警组织要求逮捕他，但未能成功。伊朗一再否认与此事有关。

Looking ahead

未来走向

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader and his likely heir, enlisted with the Guards during the Iraq war and has maintained particularly strong ties. As his father’s closest aide, he appointed its senior officers for the past two decades, and is now considered their heavy favorite, analysts said.

已故最高领袖之子、大概率接班的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在伊拉克战争期间曾加入革命卫队，与卫队关系尤为紧密。分析人士称，作为父亲最亲近的助手，他在过去20年间负责任命卫队高级军官，如今被视为卫队最属意的人选。

But the Guards are not monolithic. While some members helped to mow down protesters by the thousands in January, it is also a conscript force, so its foot soldiers mirror Iranian society — some disdain the Islamic system. A core group of 2,000 to 3,000 officers, however, are considered hard-liners whose rank and wealth are tied to the organization. They will fight to the bitter end, analysts said.

但革命卫队并非铁板一块。尽管部分成员在今年1月参与镇压、造成数千抗议者死亡，但卫队也实行征兵制，基层士兵反映了伊朗社会的真实面貌——其中一些人蔑视伊斯兰体制。不过，卫队核心的2000至3000名军官属于强硬派，其地位与财富均与革命卫队深度绑定。分析人士称，他们会战斗到底。

The emerging shock of climbing oil prices rumbled through Asia, where countries, rich and poor, tried to contain the economic fallout from the escalating war in the Middle East.

随着油价不断攀升的冲击开始显现，亚洲各国无论富裕还是贫穷，都在努力遏制中东不断升级的战争带来的经济冲击。

South Korea announced on Monday it would cap prices at the pump for the first time in nearly 30 years. In India, the city of Pune has temporarily suspended gas-based cremations, asking customers to use wood or electricity instead. Pakistan said it would increase gasoline prices by about 20 percent to throttle demand from regular drivers and allow diesel costs to remain low for trucks and buses.

韩国周一宣布，将对加油站的油价设定上限，这是近30年来首次。在印度，浦纳市已暂停使用天然气进行火化，要求民众改用木材或电力。巴基斯坦表示，将把汽油价格提高约20%，以抑制普通驾驶者的用油需求，同时让柴油价格保持低位，以减轻卡车和公交车的负担。

As the price of crude oil soared above $100 а barrel, governments are being forced to take increasingly extreme measures to protect consumers from punishing price increases and to constrain energy use to prevent shortages in a conflict with no end in sight. Few parts of the world are as acutely exposed as Asia to the curtailment of oil and gas from the Middle East, which accounts for a majority of the region’s energy imports.

随着原油价格飙升至每桶100美元以上，各国政府被迫采取越来越极端的措施，一方面保护消费者免受油价大幅上涨的冲击，另一方面限制能源使用，以防在这场看不到尽头的冲突中出现能源短缺。世界上很少有地区像亚洲这样对中东石油和天然气供应减少如此敏感，因为中东占该地区能源进口的大部分。

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and Oman that separates the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producers from their customers. Historically, roughly 20 million barrels pass through it each day, most of it bound for Asia. The strait has been effectively closed to seaborne traffic because of the conflict, leaving governments scrambling for solutions to keep fuel flowing and prices from spiraling out of control.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿曼之间的一条狭窄通道，它将世界最大的石油和天然气生产国与它们的客户分隔开来。从以往来看，每天约有2000万桶石油通过这里，其中大部分运往亚洲。由于这场冲突，该海峡实际上已经对海上运输关闭，使得各国政府不得不急忙寻找解决办法，以确保燃料供应并防止价格失控。

“There’s no replacement for that,” said Edward C. Chow, a former executive at Chevron who led international external affairs and managed operations in China. “The market sees a physical supply shortage.”

“这是无可替代的，”曾在雪佛龙负责国际对外事务和中国业务的爱德华·周说。“市场看到的是实打实的供应短缺。”

At gas stations across Hanoi, Vietnam, “sold out” signs have started to appear, with around 15 to 20 stations shutting their pumps in recent days. The authorities tried to reassure people on Monday that the country had enough oil in reserve for at least a month, urging residents not to stockpile gasoline or diesel.

在越南河内的加油站，“售罄”的标志已经开始出现，最近几天约有15到20家加油站停止供油。当地政府周一试图安抚民众，称该国至少还有一个月的石油储备，并呼吁民众不要囤积汽油或柴油。

Hoang Van Thang, 29, a motorbike taxi driver, said he waited 30 minutes to fill up his tank at a gas station in central Hanoi; he usually waited five minutes. He said his daily spending on gasoline had risen about 20 percent over the past week as fuel prices continued to climb.

29岁的摩的司机黄文胜（音）说，他在河内市中心的一家加油站等了30分钟才加满油，而平时只需要等五分钟。他说，随着油价持续上涨，在过去一周里，他每天花在汽油上的开支已经增加了约20%。

“The higher gasoline prices are eating into my daily income,” he said. “The increase in gasoline prices will push up the cost of everything else, from vegetables and meat to a bowl of pho.”

“油价上涨正在瓜分我每天的收入，”他说。“汽油价格上涨会推高所有其他商品的价格，从蔬菜、肉到河粉。”

Even if fighting stops soon, officials and analysts say the disruption to energy supply chains could last weeks.

官员和分析人士表示，即使战斗很快停止，能源供应链的中断也可能会持续数周。

Across Asia, governments have responded in different ways. Some are looking to limit the pain for consumers, while others are trying to ration scarce supplies.

在整个亚洲，各国政府采取了不同的应对方式。有些国家试图减轻消费者的痛苦，而另一些则试图定量配给稀缺的供应。

Tapping reserves.

动用储备。

Japan, South Korea and China are not ruling out the possibility of drawing down their vast reserves of oil set aside for times of crisis.

日本、韩国和中国都不排除动用为危机时期准备的大量石油储备的可能性。

When asked by a reporter whether China has decided to tap its reserves, Guo Jiakun, spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said in the briefing on Monday that the country “will do what is necessary to protect its energy security.”

当记者询问中国是否已经决定动用石油储备时，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆在周一的例行记者会上表示，中国“将采取必要措施保障自身能源安全”。

In Japan, government officials have instructed domestic oil-storage bases to prepare for a potential release of strategic reserves, local media reported on Monday. In a news conference, the country’s chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, said that no formal decision had been made to tap the reserves.

据日本媒体周一报道，日本政府官员已指示国内的石油储备基地为可能释放战略储备做好准备。在新闻发布会上，日本内阁官房长官木原稔表示，尚未就动用储备做出正式决定。

But accessing petroleum reserves is easier said than done, according to June Goh, a Singapore-based oil market analyst at Sparta, a commodities data firm. Reserves may not be easily retrieved, and it is challenging to get fuel to refiners before existing inventory runs out, she said.

但大宗商品数据公司Sparta驻新加坡的石油市场分析师吴朱妮（音）表示，动用石油储备说起来容易做起来难。她说，储备可能不易取用，而且在现有库存耗尽之前将燃料送到炼油厂手中也具有挑战性。

On Friday, Mitsubishi Chemical Group began scaling back production at a plant north of Tokyo that produces ethylene, a gas that is used to make plastics. Production at the plant was reduced after a disruption to the procurement of naphtha, a crude-derived feedstock used in ethylene production, according to a spokeswoman.

周五，三菱化学集团开始缩减其位于东京以北的一家工厂的产量。乙烯是一种用于制造塑料的气体。公司发言人称，该工厂减产的原因是用于乙烯生产的石脑油采购受阻。石脑油是一种由原油提炼而来的原料。

韩国总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令相关部门严厉打击囤积行为。

Capping prices.

设定价格上限。

In South Korea, officials on Monday moved to directly intervene in fuel markets. President Lee Jae Myung called for a price cap on gasoline and diesel and ordered the authorities to crack down on hoarding, collusion and price manipulation by refiners and gas stations.

在韩国，官员们周一采取行动直接干预燃料市场。总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令有关部门严厉打击炼油厂和加油站的囤积、串通以及价格操纵行为。

Price caps generally apply at the pump, limiting how much gas stations can charge motorists even as global crude prices surge. But such measures can shift the financial pressure elsewhere.

价格上限通常适用于零售环节，即在全球原油价格飙升的情况下，限制加油站向车主收取的费用。但此类措施可能会将财务压力转嫁到其他环节。

“If the government caps the retail price but doesn’t subsidize it, the cost falls on refiners,” Ms. Goh said. With crude prices climbing rapidly, forcing refiners to absorb the difference is not economical and “not a feasible solution in the short or medium term,” she said.

“如果政府设定零售价格上限但不提供补贴，那么成本就会落在炼油厂身上，”吴朱妮说。她表示，随着原油价格快速攀升，强迫炼油企业承担这部分差价并不经济，而且“在中短期内都不是可行的解决方案”。

The South Korean government has not yet announced how it will compensate suppliers for losses incurred from the price cap, the first of its kind in South Korea since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, said Kim Yong-beom, the chief policy coordinator at Mr. Lee’s office.

韩国总统室政策室长金容范表示，韩国政府尚未宣布将如何补偿因设定价格上限而遭受损失的供应商。这是自1997年亚洲金融危机以来韩国首次采取类似措施。

Taiwan, which imports more than 96 percent of its energy and gets about 60 percent of its oil through the strait, is racing to lock in supplies before they run out. About a quarter of its natural gas comes from Qatar, which halted production last week after Iranian strikes on two of its gas facilities.

台湾约96%以上的能源依赖进口，其中约60%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。如今，在供应耗尽之前，台湾正加紧锁定新的能源来源。台湾约四分之一的天然气来自卡塔尔，而卡塔尔在伊朗对其两处天然气设施发动袭击后，于上周暂停了生产。

To cover the shortfall through April, Taiwan needed to secure 22 vessels’ worth of natural gas shipments and had already contracted for 20 of them, the minister of economic affairs, Kung Ming-hsin, said Monday. “There will absolutely not be any gas shortages or power shortages,” he said. Taiwan also raised gasoline and diesel prices on Monday, but it said it was lowering commodity taxes at the same time to ease the impact on consumers and industry.

经济部长龚明鑫周一表示，为了弥补截至4月的供应缺口，台湾需要确保22艘液化天然气运输船的运量，目前已为其中20艘签订了合同。“绝对不会出现天然气短缺或电力短缺。”他说。台湾周一还上调了汽油和柴油价格，但同时表示将下调商品税，以减轻对消费者和产业的影响。

菲律宾的一家印刷厂。为节约能源，该国多个地方政府自周一起改为四天工作制。

Reducing demand.

减少需求。

Other governments are instead focusing on reducing energy usage.

其他国家政府则将重点放在减少能源消耗上。

Several local governments in the Philippines shifted to four-day work weeks on Monday. The governments of Manila, the capital; Cebu; and Negros Occidental said they were following President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s order for the executive branch to slash the number of working days.

菲律宾的多个地方政府周一开始实行每周四天工作制。首都马尼拉以及宿务和西内格罗斯省政府表示，他们正在执行总统费迪南德·马科斯二世关于行政部门减少工作天数的命令。

“We are victims of a war that is not of our choosing,” Mr. Marcos said in a statement on Friday, adding that the government was uncertain when the war would end.

马科斯周五在声明中表示：“我们是一场并非我们选择的战争的受害者。”他还说，政府并不确定战争何时会结束。

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in Asia to an oil price shock, with nearly 90 percent of its oil imports sourced from the Middle East. Unlike its neighbors, such as Indonesia and Thailand, which are partially shielded by fuel subsidies, prices at the pump in the Philippines are more market-driven.

菲律宾是亚洲受油价冲击影响最大的国家之一，其近90%的石油进口来自中东。与印尼和泰国等邻国（这些国家通过燃料补贴在一定程度上缓冲油价上涨）不同，菲律宾的燃油价格更多由市场决定。

Bangladesh is also in a dire situation. On Friday, the country’s new government said it had ordered fuel rationing and closed universities to conserve electricity and reduce transportation needs.

孟加拉国也处境艰难。上周五，该国新政府表示已下令实行燃料配给，并关闭大学以节约电力、减少交通需求。

In recent years, Bangladesh has been straining its national budget to buy gas for power generation. With most of its electricity now generated by gas-burning plants, it has become dependent on imports from the Gulf. The country’s new leaders, elected last month after protests toppled the previous authoritarian government, are desperate to avoid the kind of economic challenges that pressured the previous leaders.

近年来，孟加拉国为购买发电所需的天然气而承受沉重的财政压力。由于如今大部分电力来自燃气电厂，该国已经变得依赖从海湾地区进口天然气。在抗议活动推翻了之前的威权政府后，上月当选的国家新领导人迫切希望避免那种曾给前领导人带来压力的经济挑战。

In Vietnam, after two hikes in the price that the government sets for gas, diesel and household cooking gas — and the expectation of further increases — many people around Vietnam have lined up to fill up before prices go up again, while others are pausing travel plans.

在越南，在政府两次上调汽油、柴油和居民用燃气价格，并且市场预计还将继续上涨之后，许多越南民众纷纷排队，赶在下一轮涨价之前加满油，而另一些人则暂停了出行计划。

Fishermen along the coast are already delaying their trips, at the start of peak season for fishing in the South China Sea. Truck drivers are also struggling to maintain their usual schedules for bringing supplies to factories, and food and finished goods to ports.

沿海渔民已经开始推迟出海时间，而此时正是南海渔业旺季的开始。卡车司机也难以维持平时的运输节奏，无法及时将物资运往工厂，将食品和成品运往港口。