2024年12月13日
After a drizzly hike through one of Japan’s lush mountain ranges earlier this year, Luigi Mangione, a computer engineer in his mid-20s who had set off on a long solo trip to Asia, paused to record a voice message to a friend he had met while traveling abroad.
今年早些时候，20多岁的计算机工程师路易吉·曼吉奥尼在细雨中徒步走过了日本的一片繁茂山峦，停下来给一位在国外旅行时认识的朋友录了一段语音。这是他独自一人在亚洲的漫长旅行的一部分。
Making his way that day along a river gorge in the Nara region, Mr. Mangione had fled his day-to-day life in Hawaii to soak in hot springs, meditate, catch up on books and do some writing of his own.
那天，曼吉奥尼沿着奈良地区的河谷前行，他逃离了夏威夷的日常生活，去泡温泉、冥想、读书，还有自己的写作。
“I want some time to Zen out,” Mr. Mangione said in the recorded message on April 27, his voice quiet and contemplative.
“我想放空一段时间，”曼吉奥尼在4月27日录制的信息中说道，他的声音安静而深沉。
It would be one of his last communications before he abruptly cut ties with a wide range of friends and family, who eventually set out on a desperate hunt to track him down. Seven months later, Mr. Mangione emerged from his isolation as the suspect in the brazen assassination of Brian Thompson, the chief executive of UnitedHealthcare, on a sidewalk in Manhattan.
这是他最后一次与人交流，之后他突然与众多朋友和家人断绝了联系，他们最终会开始拼命寻找他的下落。七个月后，曼吉奥尼结束与世隔绝的生活，成为在曼哈顿人行道上明目张胆刺杀联合健康保险公司首席执行官布莱恩·汤普森的嫌疑人。
Police investigators have been scrambling to trace Mr. Mangione’s movements not only in the days before the Dec. 4 shooting, but also in the months that preceded it — a period that has been shrouded in mystery.
警方调查人员正抓紧时间回溯曼吉奥尼的行踪，不仅是在12月4日枪击案发生前几天，还要包括之前的几个月——这段时间一直笼罩在神秘之中。
But in new records and messages reviewed by The New York Times, along with interviews with a wide range of people who knew Mr. Mangione, a more complete picture has emerged of a young man struggling with debilitating medical problems and increasingly disillusioned with the society he lived in.
但通过《纽约时报》查阅到的新记录和信息，以及对认识曼吉奥尼的众多人士的采访，渐渐可以勾勒出一个更完整的形象：一个正受到严重健康问题困扰的年轻人，对他所生活的社会日渐感到幻灭。
路易吉·曼吉奥尼周一在宾夕法尼亚州被提审。他被控在汤普森的死亡案中犯有二级谋杀罪。
Friends and family members have been left bewildered by the jarring transformation of a young man who had seemed destined for a life of achievement. He was the valedictorian at his elite prep school in Maryland and a computer science graduate of the University of Pennsylvania’s acclaimed engineering program, with wide-ranging social connections and significant ambition.
一个原本似乎注定要成就一番事业的年轻人发生了如此惊人的转变，令他的朋友和家人困惑不已。他是马里兰州一所精英预科学校的毕业生代表，是一名曾就读于宾夕法尼亚大学备受赞誉的工程课程的计算机科学毕业生，拥有广泛的社会关系和远大的抱负。
But in recent years, his writings and messages also traced a darker journey, as he transitioned from a teenager who celebrated how his fellow students had secured an extra recess to a young man who reported being in “unbearable pain.” He frequently expressed alarm over the world’s increasing reliance on smartphones and social media.
但近年来，他的文章和信息也记录了一段更黑暗的旅程，他从一个庆祝同学们获得额外休息时间的青少年，变成了坦言自己“痛苦难忍”的青年。经常对世界日益依赖智能手机和社交媒体表示警惕。
During his trip to Asia, he lashed out at the “modern Japanese urban environment,” claiming that sex toys, automated restaurants and a more general lack of “natural human interaction” were responsible for falling birthrates and a dearth of human connection.
在亚洲之行期间，他猛烈抨击“现代日本城市环境”，声称性玩具、自动化餐厅以及更广泛层面上的“自然的人际交往”匮乏是导致出生率下降和人际疏离的原因。
More and more, he expressed frustration that society at large seemed incapable of addressing these longstanding problems, and he expressed interest in those who said that violence might be a necessary next step.
他越来越多地表达了对整个社会似乎无法解决这些长期问题的沮丧，并对那些认为暴力可能是下一步必要措施的人表示了兴趣。
In his possession at the time of his arrest in Altoona, Pa., the police said, were writings that captured his recent reflections and condemned a multibillion-dollar health care industry that he said had put profits ahead of extending lives: “Frankly, these parasites simply had it coming.”
警方称，在宾夕法尼亚州阿尔图纳逮捕他时，他身上有他最近反思的文字，其中谴责了价值数十亿美元的医疗保健行业，他说该行业将利润置于延长生命之上：“坦率地说，这些寄生虫就是自找的。”
Mr. Mangione is now charged with second-degree murder in the death of Mr. Thompson, the health care executive. His defense lawyer, Thomas Dickey, said his client was legally presumed innocent and urged the public to keep an open mind about whether he committed the crime.
曼吉奥尼目前因杀害医保公司高管汤普森被控二级谋杀罪。他的辩护律师托马斯·迪基表示，他的当事人在法律上被推定无罪，并敦促公众对他是否犯下罪行保持开放态度。
‘Life-Halting’ Medical Trouble
导致“生活停滞”的健康问题
Mr. Mangione’s medical struggles seemed to escalate during his studies at the University of Pennsylvania, where he joined a fraternity that focused less on partying and more on academics, compared with other organizations on campus. Not that he wasn’t up for a party: One video from his campus years shows him gleefully bursting a beer can open with his head.
曼吉奥尼的医疗问题似乎在宾夕法尼亚大学学习期间加剧，在那里，他加入了一个与校园里的其他组织相比更注重学术而非派对的兄弟会。并不是说他不喜欢派对：他在校园时的一段视频显示，他兴高采烈地用脑门砸开一罐啤酒。
But underneath Mr. Mangione’s friendly, accomplished exterior, he was struggling to adapt to college. He wrote on social media that his fraternity’s “hell week,” despite being “very tame,” had disturbed his sleep cycle and drastically worsened symptoms of “brain fog” that he had been experiencing since high school. What in the past had been minor disorientation, he wrote, was now upending his life.
但在友好、杰出的外表下，曼吉奥尼其实难以适应大学生活。他在社交媒体上写道，兄弟会的“地狱周”尽管“相当平淡”，却还是扰乱了他的睡眠，并严重恶化了他自高中以来一直经历的“脑雾”症状。他写道，过去只是轻微的迷乱，现在却在彻底毁掉他的生活。
Once a straight-A student, Mr. Mangione wrote in a series of since-removed posts on Reddit that he suddenly saw his grades slipping. Lectures and books were perplexing, and he struggled to focus even on YouTube videos. He tried playing chess with a roommate, but he could not conjure basic strategies to win.
曾经是全优生的曼吉奥尼在Reddit上的一系列帖子中写道，他的成绩突然下滑。课堂和书本让他感到困惑，他甚至很难集中注意力看YouTube视频。他试着和室友下棋，但他想不出最起码的取胜策略。
“It’s absolutely brutal to have such a life-halting issue, especially since the issue itself wears down the critical/logical thinking mind you’d usually use to tackle it,” he wrote. “The people around you probably won’t understand your symptoms — they certainly don’t for me.”
“有这样一个生活停滞不前的问题真是太残酷了，尤其是这个问题本身会削弱你通常用来解决问题的审辩/逻辑思维能力，”他写道。“你周围的人可能不会理解你的症状——反正我身边肯定是这样。”
Quitting His Job
辞职
曼吉奥尼毕业于宾夕法尼亚大学，就读该校备受赞誉的工程专业。
As the pandemic arrived during his senior year in 2020, and students finished the semester off campus, Mr. Mangione completed both a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree simultaneously. He soon secured a job at TrueCar, a California-based tech company that connects car buyers and sellers.
2020年，新冠疫情在他大四那年到来，学生们在校外完成了这个学期的学业，而曼吉奥尼则同时完成了学士和硕士学位。他很快在TrueCar找到了一份工作，这是一家位于加州的科技公司，为汽车买家和卖家牵线搭桥。
Able to work remotely, Mr. Mangione moved in early 2022 to Honolulu, settling into a co-living space on the 40th floor of a high-rise near Waikiki, Hawaii. He had a private room in a complex that included a stocked kitchen, a joint living area and a stash of surfboards available for anybody to use.
由于能够远程工作，曼吉奥尼于2022年初搬到了檀香山，住进位于夏威夷威基基附近一栋高层建筑40层的共享生活空间。除了他自己的私人房间，这个综合空间里还包括一个储备充足的厨房、一个共同起居区和一堆可供任何人使用的冲浪板。
But soon after, his medical troubles worsened following a group surfing lesson, and he complained that he had strained his back. Mr. Mangione told friends that he had long struggled with a spinal problem.
但不久之后，他的病情在一次集体冲浪课后恶化了，他说他拉伤了背。曼吉奥尼告诉朋友，他的脊椎长期有问题。
“His spine was kind of misaligned,” said R.J. Martin, who had founded the co-living space and grew to be friends with Mr. Mangione. “He said his lower vertebrae were almost like a half-inch off, and I think it pinched a nerve. Sometimes he’d be doing well and other times not.” In July 2023, Mr. Mangione wrote in a Reddit post that he had also slipped on a piece of paper, which caused more problems.
“他的脊椎有点错位，”这个共享生活空间的创始人、后来和曼吉奥尼成为朋友的R·J·马丁说。“他说他的下椎骨错位了几乎有半英寸，我觉得是神经被压住了。他的状态时好时坏。”2023年7月，曼吉奥尼在Reddit上发帖称，他还踩到一张纸滑倒，导致问题加重。
For months, the suffering continued as he consulted with doctors and tried a variety of noninvasive remedies. He quit his job in early 2023, telling a friend that while it paid well, it was “mind-numbingly boring.” He said he wanted to spend more time doing yoga and reading.
几个月来，他一直在咨询医生，尝试各种非侵入性疗法，但疼痛仍在继续。2023年初，他辞去了工作，他对朋友说，这份工作虽然薪水很高，但“无聊透顶”。他说他想花更多时间做瑜伽和看书。
But it is not clear how he paid for health care after that. In May, he turned 26, meaning that he could have been kicked off his parents’ health insurance plan. The family has not discussed his insurance coverage, and has declined requests for interviews, but a representative for UnitedHealthcare said on Thursday that Mr. Mangione did not have health insurance through that company.
但不清楚在那之后他是如何支付医疗费用的。他于今年5月满26岁，这意味着他可能会被踢出父母的医疗保险计划。他的家人没有讨论他的保险覆盖，也拒绝了采访请求，但联合医疗的一名代表周四表示，曼吉奥尼没有通过该公司获得医疗保险。
His mind seemed to be on more philosophical matters by then.
当时他的心思似乎在一些比较哲学的问题上。
Mr. Mangione had always been a voracious reader, consuming everything from self-help books to George Orwell’s “1984,” at times scribbling extensive notes or typing up outlines that would summarize the author’s views and how they might apply to his own life.
曼吉奥尼一直是一个如饥如渴的读者，从励志书籍到乔治·奥威尔的《1984》，他什么都读，有时会做大量笔记，或者列出提纲，总结作者的观点，以及如何将这些观点应用于他自己的生活。
“Reflect on how current work can positively impact society,” he wrote while reading “Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance,” a book about how to overcome setbacks by intentionally cultivating tenacity.
他在阅读《勇气——激情与毅力的力量》(Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance)时写道：“想想当前的工作如何对社会产生积极影响。”这本书讲述了如何有意识地培养坚韧的品质，从而克服挫折。
Among his friends in Hawaii, he helped start a book club that began meeting in 2023. Mr. Mangione pushed for readings by Tim Urban, a writer and illustrator whose blog Wait, But Why, a compendium of science writing and cultural musings, is popular with Gen Z techies. The group also read “The Ape That Understood The Universe,” a favorite of Mr. Mangione’s that explores evolutionary psychology.
他和夏威夷的朋友一起创办了一个读书俱乐部，于2023年开始聚会。曼吉奥尼推荐了作家兼插画家蒂姆·厄本的读物。厄本在他的博客“等等，但是为什么”(Wait, But Why)上发表科学写作和文化思考，很受Z世代技术爱好者的欢迎。他们还阅读了《理解宇宙的猿猴》(The Ape That understanding The Universe)，这是曼吉奥尼最喜欢的一本探讨进化心理学的书。
One focus of his reading was his ongoing back troubles, including “Crooked: Outwitting the Back Pain Industry and Getting on the Road to Recovery.”
他的阅读重点之一和他持续的背部问题有关，包括《弯曲——战胜背痛产业，走上康复之路》(Crooked: Outwitting the Back Pain Industry and Getting on the Road to Recovery)。
In the summer of 2023, he decided it was time to pursue surgery, traveling back to the East Coast for the procedure. On Aug. 10, Mr. Martin texted him to ask how it had gone, and Mr. Mangione texted back a laughing emoji and photos of his spinal X-rays.
2023年夏天，他决定回到东海岸做手术。8月10日，马丁发短信问他情况如何，曼吉奥尼回复了一个笑脸表情符号和他的脊柱X光片。
He reported on Reddit that the procedure was a success and that he could walk and sit just fine within days. He began encouraging others to consider surgery and to push back against doctors who might be wary of surgical solutions. He suggested at one point that people should perhaps tell their doctor that their back troubles were preventing them from working.
他在Reddit上报告说手术很成功，几天后就可以正常走路和坐着了。他鼓励其他人考虑手术，并反对那些可能对手术方案持谨慎态度的医生。他一度建议，人们或许应该告诉他们的医生，他们的背部问题阻碍了他们的工作。
“We live in a capitalist society,” he wrote. “I’ve found that the medical industry responds to these key words far more urgently than you describing unbearable pain and how it’s impacting your quality of life.”
“我们生活在资本主义社会，”他写道。“我发现，比起你去描述无法忍受的疼痛，以及它如何影响你的生活质量，医疗行业对这些关键词的反应要积极的多。”
‘Peaceful Protest Is Outright Ignored’
“和平抗议完全被无视”
Among his friends in Hawaii, there was a growing strain among members of his book group, participants said. Some of them were perturbed by Mr. Mangione’s book selections, which they felt were overly geared toward men and masculine pursuits. Others drifted away after a discussion about whether to read the writings of Ted Kaczynski, the so-called Unabomber, who had carried out a series of bombings over a period of 17 years, beginning in 1978, with the goal of calling attention to the cost to humanity of a world built around technology.
读书小组的参与者说，在他夏威夷的朋友们当中，他和小组成员之间的关系变得尤其紧张。他们中的一些人对曼吉奥尼的选书感到不安，他们觉得这些书过于倾向男性和男性化的追求。还有一些人在小组讨论是否要读泰德·卡钦斯基的作品后离开了。从1978年开始，人称“炸弹客”的卡钦斯基在17年的时间里制造了一系列爆炸事件，目的是呼吁人们关注一个围绕科技建立的世界给人类带来的代价。
Mr. Martin said he was the one who proposed reading Mr. Kaczynski’s 35,000-word manifesto, but Mr. Mangione was also clearly a fan, praising it later on his Goodreads page, and giving it a four-star review. He wrote that while Mr. Kaczynski had been rightfully imprisoned for the bombings, “it’s simply impossible to ignore how prescient many of his predictions about modern society turned out.”
马丁说，是他提议阅读卡钦斯基的3.5万字宣言的，但曼吉奥尼显然也是卡钦斯基的拥趸，后来还在自己的Goodreads页面上称赞了这份宣言，给了四星的评价。他写道，虽然卡钦斯基因爆炸案而入狱是理所应当的，但“他对现代社会的许多预测结果太有先见之明，我们根本无法忽视”。
As part of his review, Mr. Mangione quoted what he described as “interesting” remarks from someone who had written about how companies “have zero qualms about burning down the planet for a buck, so why should we have any qualms about burning them down to survive?”
在他的评论中，曼吉奥尼引用了一个人的话，认为它“很有趣”，这个人写道，企业“为了赚一块钱而不惜烧掉地球，如果我们为了生存要烧掉这些企业，那又算得了什么呢？”
The passage went on, “Peaceful protest is outright ignored, economic protest isn’t possible in the current system, so how long until we recognize that violence against those who lead us to such destruction is justified as self-defense?”
他继续写道：“和平抗议完全被无视，经济抗议在现行制度下是不可能的，所以我们要多久才能认识到，对那些将我们引向这种毁灭的人使用暴力是正当的自卫？”
After his surgery, Mr. Mangione toured the islands of Hawaii, visited family back in Maryland and then, early this year, set off on the trip to Asia, which included stops in Thailand and Japan.
手术后，曼吉奥尼去了夏威夷的许多岛屿旅行，看望了马里兰州的家人，然后在今年年初开始了亚洲之行，其中包括泰国和日本。
He wrote that he found Japan’s densely urban environment to be “an evolutionary mismatch for the human animal.” But he loved the mountains, saying that one of his goals in Asia was to “do some Buddha.”
他写道，他觉得日本密集的城市环境“与人类动物的进化不匹配”。但他喜欢山，说他在亚洲的目标之一是“研究点佛”。
One of the people he spoke to during his travels was Gurwinder Bhogal, a writer who was living in England. The two had a video call for about two hours in early May. Mr. Bhogal recalled Mr. Mangione leaning to the left on some political issues and to the right on others, and that he was interested in effective altruism and wary of smartphone addiction.
他在旅行中与一位住在英国的作家古尔温德·博加尔交谈过。两人在5月初进行了大约两个小时的视频通话。博加尔回忆说，曼吉奥尼在一些政治问题上左倾，在另一些问题上则右倾，他对有效的利他主义很感兴趣，对智能手机成瘾很警惕。
“Overall, the impression I got of him, besides his curiosity and kindness, was a deep concern for the future of humanity, and a determination to improve himself and the world,” Mr. Bhogal said. Mr. Bhogal recalled Mr. Mangione discussing health care briefly — he complained that health care in the United States was too expensive, and said that he envied the nationalized health care system in the United Kingdom.
博加尔说：“总的来说，除了他的好奇心和善良，我对他的印象是对人类未来的深切忧虑，以及改善自己和世界的决心。”博加尔回忆起曼吉奥尼对医疗保险的简短讨论——他抱怨说美国的医疗太贵了，并说他羡慕英国的国有化医疗系统。
A couple weeks later, Mr. Mangione sent another message to the friend he had met while traveling. He was on Mount Omine in Japan, which he noted was known for its tests of courage and also for prohibiting women from climbing it.
几周后，曼吉奥尼又给他在旅行中认识的朋友发了一条信息。他当时在日本的大峰山，他注意到这座山以考验勇气和禁止女性攀登而闻名。
“This mountain is peak misogyny,” he wrote to the friend. But, he added, “I needed to stop getting distracted by women lol.”
“这座山是厌女巅峰了，”他在给朋友的信中写道。但是，他补充说，“我不能老这么因为女人分心哈哈。”
A few days later, on May 25, Mr. Mangione’s Reddit account shows one final post, in which he shared a video on a subreddit dedicated to Mr. Kaczynski. The footage, titled “Streaming Overdose 2024, China,” showed dozens of people lined up along sidewalks, livestreaming themselves.
几天后的5月25日，曼吉奥尼在Reddit上发布了最后一篇帖子，他在Reddit的一个专门纪念卡钦斯基的子版块上分享了一段视频。这段名为“流媒体过量，2024年，中国”的视频显示，数十人在人行道上排成一排，正在直播自己。
曼吉奥尼在汤普森中枪身亡几天后因涉案被捕。
Not long after that, friends started to lose touch with Mr. Mangione. One texted him in June — “Where in the world are you?” — but received no reply. By the end of the summer, family members were reaching out to Mr. Mangione’s past friends, hoping for their help in tracking him down, saying they had not heard from him in months.
不久后，朋友们开始与曼吉奥尼失去联系。六月，有人给他发短信：“你到底在哪里？——但是没有得到回答。夏末，他的家人开始联系曼吉奥尼以前的朋友，希望他们帮忙找他，并说他们已经好几个月没有他的消息了。
His relatives have not discussed when they last heard from him, or why they waited until Nov. 18 to file a missing person’s report in California.
他的亲属没有谈及最后一次听到他的消息是什么时候，也没有说他们为什么要等到11月18日才在加州提交失踪人口报告。
Just a few days later, the police say, Mr. Mangione got on a bus that had originated in Atlanta, on his way to New York City.
警方说，就在11月18日的几天后，曼吉奥尼登上了一辆从亚特兰大出发的大巴，前往纽约市。
2024年12月13日
When two fiber-optic cables were severed under the Baltic Sea last month, European officials acted fast, with some declaring sabotage. They sent coast guard vessels to halt a Chinese-flagged commercial ship that their governments suspected of involvement.
上月，两条波罗的海海底光缆被切断后，欧洲官员迅速采取行动，一些人称其为蓄意破坏。他们怀疑一艘悬挂中国国旗的商船与此有关，派出海岸警卫队船只予以拦截。
That was 23 days ago.
那是23天前的事了。
Today, the ship, the Yi Peng 3, remains anchored in the Baltic Sea, watched over by a rotating host of coast guard vessels while Sweden, Finland and Lithuania investigate. But if officials have gained any greater insight into what happened to the cables — or whether the ship was involved — they are not saying.
如今，这艘名为“伊鹏三号”的船只仍停泊在波罗的海，在瑞典、芬兰和立陶宛展开调查期间，由海岸警卫队轮流监视。但是，就算官员们对电缆情况或者这艘船是否涉及其中有了更深入的了解，他们也没有透露。
Asked for an update, Sweden’s foreign ministry referred to a statement from last month about the need to “await the findings of this investigation.” A spokesperson for Sweden’s Prosecution Authority reiterated that the matter was being jointly investigated, but said no further details were available.
在被问及有无进一步的消息时，瑞典外交部提到了上个月的一份声明，称需要“等待调查结果”。瑞典检察机关发言人重申，正在对此事进行联合调查，但表示没有进一步的细节。
China’s foreign ministry said in a statement to The Times that it was “maintaining close communication” with the European countries involved, but had nothing more to add.
中国外交部在给时报的声明中表示，正与有关欧洲国家“保持顺畅沟通”，但没有更多补充。
The mystery surrounding the Yi Peng 3 comes at a time of heightened anxiety in Europe after a number of apparent acts of sabotage around the continent, including arson, vandalism and physical assaults.
围绕“伊鹏三号”的神秘事件发生之际，欧洲大陆出现了一系列明显的破坏行为，包括纵火、破坏和人身攻击，这令欧洲的焦虑加剧。
European officials have attributed many of these, including a plot detailed last month to place incendiary devices on planes, to Russia. Last week, Estonian officials described a scheme by Russia’s military intelligence service to pay locals to commit acts of vandalism, including breaking the windows of cars belonging to the country’s interior minister and an editor of a local news outlet.
欧洲官员将其中许多事件归咎于俄罗斯，包括上个月予以详细披露的在飞机上放置燃烧装置的阴谋。上周，爱沙尼亚官员描述了俄罗斯军事情报机构的一项计划——付钱让当地人从事破坏行为，包括打破该国内政部长和当地一家新闻媒体主编的车窗玻璃。
“Russia realizes that it cannot match the United States militarily after the setbacks it had in Ukraine and is looking for other ways to pressure and disrupt the Western countries,” Christopher P. Maier, a U.S. assistant secretary of defense, said in an interview published this week by a Swedish news outlet, Svenska Dagbladet. “We therefore expect to see more types of sabotage and other disruptive and subversive incidents.”
“在乌克兰遭遇挫折后，俄罗斯意识到自己无法在军事上与美国匹敌，正在寻找其他方式向西方国家施压，并扰乱它们，”美国国防部助理部长克里斯托弗·迈尔本周接受瑞典新闻媒体《瑞典日报》采访时说。“因此，我们预计会看到更多类型的破坏，以及其他破坏性、颠覆性事件。”
The Baltic Sea in particular has increasingly become a key arena for geopolitical machinations of various kinds, mostly related to competition between the West and Russia. NATO periodically scrambles fighter jets to intercept Russian military aircraft flying over the Baltic Sea, and each fall, countries of the western alliance hold major naval exercises there called Freezing Winds.
尤其是波罗的海，它日益成为各种地缘政治阴谋的关键舞台，大部分与西方和俄罗斯之间的竞争有关。北约定期出动战斗机拦截飞越波罗的海的俄罗斯军机，每年秋天，北约成员都会在那里举行名为“寒风”的大型海军演习。
In summer 2022, explosions ripped through several sections of the Nord Stream pipeline beneath the Baltic, cutting off Western Europe from Russian natural gas deliveries. U.S. intelligence services have assessed that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack, but public details remain sparse.
2022年夏天，波罗的海海底北溪天然气管道多个部分发生爆炸，切断了西欧与俄罗斯的天然气供应。美国情报机构评估称，袭击由亲乌克兰组织实施，但公开的细节仍然很少。
Exactly who, if anyone, is responsible for cutting the two fiber-optic cables on the Baltic Sea floor is still unclear. Shortly after they were severed, the foreign ministries of Germany and Finland issued a rare joint statement warning of “hybrid warfare by malicious actors” aimed at Europe’s critical infrastructure.
目前尚不清楚切断波罗的海海底两条光缆的确切责任方——如果有的话。光缆被切断后不久，德国和芬兰的外交部罕见地发表了一份联合声明，警告“恶意行为者的混合战争”将针对欧洲的关键基础设施。
“Nobody believes that these cables were severed by accident,” Germany’s minister of defense, Boris Pistorius, told reporters last month, although investigators have not ruled out that the episode was indeed an accident.
“没有人相信这些电缆是被意外切断的，”德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托瑞斯上月对记者说，不过调查人员并未排除这一事件确属意外的可能性。
Taiwanese officials have suggested that Chinese ships may have dropped their anchors and dragged them to intentionally sever cables servicing Taiwan, and last year a Chinese-flagged ship called the Newnew Polar Bear dropped its anchor and cut through a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. That ship was allowed to sail into international waters before authorities had a chance to investigate. Officials appear unwilling to give the Yi Peng 3 the same opportunity.
台湾官员曾表示，中国船只可能抛锚拖拽，故意切断为台湾服务的电缆。去年，一艘悬挂中国国旗的船只“新新北极熊号”抛锚切断了芬兰和爱沙尼亚之间的天然气管道。在当局进行调查之前，这艘船被允许驶入国际水域。官员们似乎不愿给“伊鹏三号”同样的机会。
The container ship set off from the Russian port of Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea on Nov. 15, according to Marine Traffic, a commercial ship tracking agency. From there, it traveled nearly the full length of the Baltic Sea. The first cable, connecting Lithuania and Sweden, was cut on the morning of Nov. 17. The second, connecting Finland and Germany, was cut the next morning.
据商业船舶跟踪机构“海洋交通”称，这艘集装箱船于11月15日从波罗的海的俄罗斯乌斯特-卢加港出发，几乎穿越了整个波罗的海。11月17日上午，第一条连接立陶宛和瑞典的电缆被切断。连接芬兰和德国的第二条电缆于第二天上午被切断。
Calls to the company which owns the ship, Ningbo Yipeng Shipping, have gone unanswered, though Chinese officials have said the government is in communication with Denmark and Sweden about the case.
记者致电该船所属公司宁波伊鹏海运有限公司，但无人接听电话，不过中国官员表示，政府正就此案与丹麦和瑞典进行沟通。
"China has always required Chinese ships to operate in compliance with the law,” the foreign ministry statement said. “At the same time, we also pay close attention to the infringement of the normal navigation rights and legitimate rights and interests of Chinese ships.”
“中方一贯……要求中国的船只严格遵守相关的法律法规，”中国外交部的声明称。“同时，我们希望中国船只的正常航行权利和合法权益得到有效保护。”
The Yi Peng 3 remains anchored just where it has been for more than three weeks, about equidistant from the shores of Denmark and Sweden, roughly 60 miles northwest of Copenhagen, in the Kattegat Strait. Nearby, according to the latest update from Marine Traffic, are German and Danish coast guard vessels. A Swedish coast guard ship that had been shadowing the Yi Peng 3 left the area on Monday.
“伊鹏三号”在原地停泊了三个多星期，位于哥本哈根西北约96公里的卡特加特海峡，距离丹麦和瑞典海岸的距离大致相当。根据海上交通的最新消息，附近有德国和丹麦海岸警卫队的船只。周一，一艘一直跟随“伊鹏三号”的瑞典海岸警卫队船只离开了该地区。
“Since the situation is static, and has been for a while, we are dispatching our resources elsewhere for other duties,” a spokesman for the Swedish Coast Guard, Matthias Lindholm, said in an email.
瑞典海岸警卫队发言人马蒂亚斯·林德霍尔姆在电子邮件中说，“由于局势一直没有变化，而且已经持续了一段时间，我们正在把资源派往其他地方执行其他任务。”
There is no limit to the length of time ships like the Yi Peng 3 can stay at sea, Mr. Lindholm said, adding that should the captain desire, additional supplies could be delivered for the crew.
林德霍尔姆说，像“伊鹏三号”这样的船只在海上停留的时间没有限制。他还说，如果船长愿意，可以为船员提供额外的补给。
THE NEW YORK TIMES BOOKS STAFF
2024年12月13日
Here they are — the 10 Best Books of 2024.
以下是2024年10本最佳书籍。
At the Book Review, we spend all year getting ready for this moment. We begin debating our annual best-of list in the spring, going to the mat for what we love. By fall, we’re preparing for rhetorical slugfests.
我们书评版面整整一年都在为这一刻做准备。我们从春天就已经开始讨论我们的年度最佳书单，为我们喜欢的书不遗余力。到了秋天，我们又开始准备激烈的争执。
Ultimately, we aim to pick the books that made lasting impressions: the stories that imprinted on our hearts and psyches, the examining of lives that deepened what we thought we already knew.
最终，我们的目标是选出那些给我们留下深刻印象的书：它们讲述的故事在我们心中留下深深烙印，它们对生活的审视令我们更深刻地认识了那些我们自以为了解的事物。
We delve into each of these books on a special edition of the Book Review podcast, and we break down three picks in a handy video. For even more great books, take a spin through all 100 Notable Books of 2024, or even this list, which features every book we’ve anointed the best since 2000.
我们将在书评播客特别版中深入探讨每本书，并在每个视频中详细介绍三本精选书籍。想要了解更多好书，可以浏览“2024年的100本值得关注的书”，乃至这份名单，其中包括了自2000年以来我们评选出的最佳图书。
Fiction
虚构类
《All Fours》（暂译为《狗趴》）
By Miranda July
米兰达·朱利 著
July’s second novel, which follows a married mother and artist who derails a solo cross-country road trip by checking into a motel close to home and starting an affair with a younger rental-car worker, was the year’s literary conversation piece, dubbed “the talk of every group text — at least every group text composed of women over 40” and “the first great perimenopause novel” in just two of many articles that wrestled with its themes. Sexually frank and laced with the novelist’s loopy humor, the book ends up posing that most universal question: What would you risk to change your life? Read our review.
这是朱利的第二部小说，讲述了一位已婚母亲兼艺术家的故事，她住进离家很近的一家汽车旅馆，与一位年轻的租车店员工发生了婚外情，令她的单人越野公路旅行泡汤。这部小说成了本年度的文学话题，被誉为“每个群聊里的话题——至少是每个40岁以上女性群聊里的话题”，是“第一部伟大的更年期小说”，这还只是众多讨论本书主题的文章中的两篇。这本书在性方面非常坦率，充满作者不拘一格的幽默，最后提出了一个所有人都关心的问题：为了改变生活，你愿意冒什么风险？阅读我们的书评。
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《Good Material》（《好素材》）
By Dolly Alderton
多莉·奥尔德顿 著
In Alderton’s brisk, witty novel, a 35-year-old struggling comedian in London tries to make sense of a recent breakup at the same moment when the majority of his friends seem to be pairing off for life. Cue snappy dialogue, awkward first dates and a memorable quest for a new home; toss clichéd gender roles, the traditional marriage plot and a ho-hum happily ever after. Not only does Alderton cement herself as a latter-day Nora Ephron, she also puts her own mark on the classic romantic comedy form. There are no second fiddles in “Good Material”; every character sings. And there is a deeper message, revealed in a surprise twist, having to do with independence, adventure and charting your own course. Read our review.
在奥尔德顿这部轻快诙谐的小说中，一位35岁、事业不顺的伦敦喜剧演员试图从最近的分手中吸取教训，而与此同时，他的大多数朋友似乎都有稳定的恋情。小说中有激烈的对话、尴尬的初次约会和令人难忘的寻找新家过程；抛弃了老套的性别角色，传统的婚姻情节和平淡无奇的幸福生活。奥尔德顿不仅把自己塑造成了现代版的诺拉·艾芙隆，还在经典的浪漫喜剧形式上留下了自己的印记。《好素材》里没有次要角色；每个角色都大放异彩。一个意外的情节转折揭示了更深层次的信息，关乎独立、冒险和规划自己的人生道路。阅读我们的书评。
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《James》（《詹姆斯》）
By Percival Everett
帕西瓦尔·埃弗雷特 著
It takes a lot of ambition, skill and vision to reinvent one of the most iconic books in American letters, but Everett demonstrates he possesses those virtues in droves in “James.” The novel is a radical reworking of Mark Twain’s “Huckleberry Finn,” telling the story not from Huck’s perspective, but from the point of view of the enslaved man who accompanies Huck down the Mississippi River: Jim (or, as he clarifies, James). From James’s eyes, we see he is no mere sidekick but rather a thinker and a writer who is code-switching as illiterate and fighting desperately for freedom. Everett’s novel is a literary hat trick — a book that highlights the horrors in American history and complicates an American classic, all while also emerging as a work of exquisite originality in its own right. Read our review.
要重塑美国文学史上最具代表性的著作之一，需要很大的雄心、技巧和远见，但埃弗雷特在《詹姆斯》一书中证明了他拥有这些品质。本书是对马克·吐温的《哈克贝利·费恩历险记》的彻底再创作，不是从哈克的角度讲故事，而是从陪伴哈克沿密西西比河漂流的那个奴隶的角度讲述故事：这个人就是吉姆（或者，按照他本人的澄清，是詹姆斯）。从詹姆斯的眼中，我们看到他不仅仅是一个跟班，他是一个要在人前装作大字不识的思想者和写作者，在为自由奋力抗争。埃弗雷特的小说堪称一箭三雕——它凸显了美国历史中的恐怖，把一部美国经典著作变得更复杂丰富，同时它本身也是一部极具原创性的精彩作品。阅读我们的书评。
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《Martyr!》（《殉道者！》）
By Kaveh Akbar
卡韦赫·阿克巴尔 著
Cyrus Shams, an Iranian American aspiring poet and recovering drug addict, wallows in a post-college malaise in a fictional Midwestern town. He’s working dead-end jobs and halfheartedly attending A.A., while grieving his parents’ deaths and, increasingly, fantasizing about his own. Cyrus is lost and sad, but this captivating first novel, by an author who is himself a poet, is anything but. As Akbar nudges Cyrus closer to uncovering a secret in his family’s past, he turns his protagonist’s quest for meaning — involving a road trip to New York and a revelatory encounter in the Brooklyn Museum — into an indelible affirmation of life, rife with inventive beauty, vivid characters and surprising twists of plot. Read our review.
赛勒斯·沙姆斯是个有志于成为诗人的伊朗裔美国人，正在戒毒的瘾君子，在一个虚构的中西部小镇生活，沉溺于大学毕业后的颓废之中。他做着没有前途的工作，了无兴致地参加匿名戒酒会，哀悼死去的父母，同时越来越频繁地幻想着自己的死亡。赛勒斯迷茫而又悲伤，但这本出自诗人之手的小说处女作本身却并非如此。随着阿克巴尔推动赛勒斯揭开家族过去的秘密，他把主人公对意义的追求——包括前往纽约的公路旅行和在布鲁克林博物馆的一次充满启发的邂逅——变成了对生命不可磨灭的肯定，全书充满创造性的美感，生动的人物和令人惊讶的情节转折。阅读我们的书评。
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《You Dreamed of Empires》（《梦见了帝国》）
By Álvaro Enrigue; translated by Natasha Wimmer
阿尔瓦罗·恩里格 著；娜塔莎·维默 译
History has long been Enrigue’s playground, and his latest novel takes readers to 16th-century Tenochtitlan, or what is now Mexico City. Hernán Cortés and his men have arrived at Moctezuma’s palace for a diplomatic — if tense and comically imbalanced — meeting of cultures and empires. In this telling, it’s Moctezuma’s people who have the upper hand, though the emperor himself is inconveniently prone to hallucinogenic reveries and domestic threats. The carnage here is devilishly brazen, the humor ample and bone-dry. Read our review.
历史一直是恩里格的游乐场，他的最新小说把读者带到了16世纪的特诺奇蒂特兰，也就是现在的墨西哥城。埃尔南·科尔特斯和他的手下来到蒙特祖玛的宫殿，参加两种文化、两个帝国之间的一场外交会晤——这是场紧张的会面，双方的强弱差距之大令人感到滑稽。在这个故事中，虽然皇帝本人对幻觉臆想和国内威胁的执着导致了些麻烦，但蒙特祖玛的人还是占据着上风。书中有恶魔般肆无忌惮的屠杀，也有大量冷幽默。阅读我们的书评。
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Nonfiction
非虚构类
《Cold Crematorium》（《冰冷的火葬场》）
By József Debreczeni; translated by Paul Olchváry
约瑟夫·德布赖采尼 著；保罗·欧尔奇瓦里 译
Debreczeni, 39 when he was deported from his native Hungary to what he calls “the Land of Auschwitz,” would later memorialize the experience in a book that defies easy classification. First published in 1950, “Cold Crematorium” is a masterpiece of clinical, mordant observation. In a cattle car he watches a fellow deportee whose hand retains the gestures of a chain-smoker; newly arrived at Auschwitz, he encounters the lousy barroom piano player he avoided back home. This is more than gallows humor; it’s a stubborn fight to stay human and place the unimaginable in the context of the known. Look elsewhere for platitudes — Debreczeni witnessed, and reported, the best and worst of mankind and showed it to us to use as we will. Read our review.
德布赖采尼在39岁那年被他的祖国匈牙利驱逐到他所谓的“奥斯维辛之地”，他后来在一本难以归类的书中回忆了这段经历。1950年首版的《冰冷的火葬场》是一部客观敏锐的杰作。在一辆运牛车里，他看到一个被驱逐出境的同伴，他的手保持着不断在抽烟的姿势；刚到奥斯维辛，他就遇到了他在家乡避之唯恐不及的蹩脚酒吧钢琴师。这不仅仅是绞刑架下的幽默；更是一场顽强的战斗，要保持人性，把难以想象的事物置于已知的背景下。看看在其他地方说滥了的赞美吧——德布赖采尼见证并报道了人类最好和最坏的一面，他把这些展示出来供我们自己去使用。阅读我们的书评。
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《Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here》（《走了的人都在这里》）
By Jonathan Blitzer
乔纳森·布利策 著
Blitzer, a staff writer at The New Yorker, presents a timely analysis of the situation at America’s southern border, placing the blame for today’s screaming headlines, detainee camps and unaccompanied minors firmly on post-Cold War U.S. policy. His kaleidoscopic narrative moves between the Central American insurgencies that flooded this country with refugees, and the shifting and frequently incoherent policies that worsened the fallout. We meet morally pragmatic domestic politicians, a tireless activist who’s moved from El Salvador to Chicago, Los Angeles teenagers ensnared in gang pipelines. None of it is simple; all of it has a terrible cost. Blitzer handles his vast topic with assurance and grace, never losing sight of the human element behind the global crisis. Read our review.
《纽约客》专职撰稿人布利策对美国南部边境的局势做了及时的分析，把今天令人震惊的新闻、拘留营和无人陪伴的未成年人的责任归咎于冷战后的美国政策。他的叙事千变万化，在导致难民涌入美国的中美洲叛乱和导致难民问题恶化的政策之间穿梭，这些政策往往不断变化且经常前后不一。我们在书中见到一些道德上采取务实态度的国内政治人士，一位从萨尔瓦多搬到芝加哥的勤奋活动人士，难以摆脱成为帮派分子的宿命的洛杉矶青少年。这一切都不简单；都要付出可怕的代价。布利策以自信和优雅的态度处理了这个宏大的话题，从未忽视全球危机背后的人性因素。阅读我们的书评。
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《I Heard Her Call My Name》（《我听到她叫我的名字》）
By Lucy Sante
露西·桑特 著
When the veteran literary and cultural critic came out as transgender in 2021 at the age of 66, she described in an email to her loved ones the devastating realization that her “parallel life” — the one presented to her by a “gender-swapping” app that showed her how she would have looked as a girl and then a woman at various junctures in her life — had passed her by. “Fifty years were under water, and I’d never get them back.” As she reflects on her upbringing as the “only child of isolated immigrants,” her early adulthood in 1970s New York and her career of seeking truths through writing while hiding an important truth about herself, Sante fearlessly documents a transformation both internal and external, one that is also a kind of homecoming. Read our review.
这名资深的文学和文化评论家2021年公开自己的跨性别身份时已66岁，她在写给亲人的电子邮件中描述了她当时令人心碎的领悟：她的“并行生活”已和她擦肩而过，那是一款“性别转换”应用程序展示给她的生活，让她看到了自己如何以女孩和女人的样子出现在人生的各个阶段。“50年时光隐藏在水下，我再也找不回它们。”桑特在书中回顾了自己作为“独生子女在与社会隔绝的移民家庭”长大，成年后不久在20世纪70年的纽约生活，以及她如何通过写作寻求真理的同时，隐瞒了一个关于自己的重要真相的职业生涯。桑特大胆地记录了这个既是内心，也是外在的转变，而这也是一种回归。阅读我们的书评。
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《Reagan》（《里根》）
By Max Boot
马克斯·布特 著
This elegant biography of the 40th president stands out for its deep authority and nimble style. Boot, a historian and foreign policy analyst, grew up idolizing Ronald Reagan, but after a decade of interviews and research, he finds himself asking whether his onetime hero paved the way for Donald Trump, the man whose ascent to power led Boot to abandon the right. The book is a landmark work that shows how Reagan emerged from his New Deal roots to become a practiced Red baiter and racist dog whistler before settling into the role of the optimistic all-American elder statesman. “It is no exaggeration,” Boot writes, “to say that you cannot fully comprehend what happened to America in the 20th century without first understanding what happened to Ronald Reagan.” Read our review.
这是一部关于第40任总统的文笔优雅的传记，尤为突出的是其知识渊博的权威性和灵活的风格。历史学家、外交政策分析师布特在成长过程中一直崇拜罗纳德·里根，但经过10年的采访和研究，他发现自己开始思考一个问题：他曾经的英雄是否为特朗普上台创造了条件，特朗普的掌权导致布特抛弃右派。这部里程碑式的著作展示了里根如何从他的新政起源初露头角，成为一名用反共言论激发民众、玩弄种族主义“狗哨政治”的内行，最后成了一名乐观的、具有典型美国人特点的政治元老。“毫不夸张地说，”布特写道，“如果不首先了解罗纳德·里根的生平，就无法全面了解美国在20世纪发生的事情。”阅读我们的书评。
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《The Wide Wide Sea》（《大海无边无涯》）
By Hampton Sides
汉普顿·赛德斯 著
In this masterly history, Sides tracks the 18th-century English naval officer James Cook’s third and final voyage across the globe, painting a vivid and propulsive portrait that blends generations of scholarship with the firsthand accounts of European seafarers as well as the oral traditions of Indigenous Pacific islanders. The story begins in Britain as the last embers of the Enlightenment are going out, a time when curiosity and empathy gave way to imperial ambition and moral zeal. Between tales of adventure on the open ocean, complex depictions of Polynesian culture and colorful scenes of a subarctic frost littered with animal life, Sides expertly probes the causes of Cook’s growing anger and violence as the journey wears on and the explorer reckons with the fallout of what he and others had wrought in expanding the map of Europe’s power. Read our review.
在这部精湛的历史著作中，赛德斯追踪了18世纪英国海军军官詹姆斯·库克的第三次、也是最后一次环球航行，将几代学者的学术成果与欧洲水手的一手材料，以及太平洋岛屿原住民的口头传统结合起来，描绘了一幅生动的、引人入胜的画面。故事从英国开始，随着启蒙运动的最后余光即将熄灭，人们对外界的好奇心和同理心被帝国野心和道德热情取代。穿插在外海冒险故事之中的是对波利尼西亚文化的复杂描述，以及亚严寒环境里丰富多彩的动物生活。赛德斯用精湛的笔法探讨了随着航行时间渐长，库克变得越来越愤怒和暴力的原因，以及这名探险家如何面对自己和其他人为扩大欧洲权力版图给世界带来的后果。阅读我们的书评。
2024年12月13日
China’s top leaders on Thursday pledged more stimulus measures to shore up the country’s economy, building on steps they have taken in recent months to bolster growth.
中国最高领导层周四承诺，将在近几个月来已经采取的促增长措施的基础上，推出更多提振经济的措施。
At an annual gathering of the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet, led by the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, officials agreed that the government should allow a bigger budget deficit, borrow more and cut interest rates, the state television broadcaster said on Thursday.
据中央电视台周四的报道，国家最高领导人习近平主持召开了中央经济工作年度会议，与会者为中共和国务院官员，他们一致同意提高财政赤字率，允许政府借更多的钱，同时降低利率。
The statements suggest a willingness by Beijing to take more aggressive steps to increase spending, part of a shift that began in September to turn around years of weak consumer demand, lackluster growth and declining prices.
这次会议的纪要表明，中国政府在增加支出上愿意采取更积极的措施，政府态度的转变是今年9月开始的，以扭转多年来消费需求疲软、增长乏力的局面，解决价格下跌的问题。
China “will need to maintain economic growth and maintain overall stability of employment and prices next year,” the state broadcaster said at the conclusion of the two-day Central Economic Work Conference, which sets the economic agenda for the upcoming year.
中国“明年要保持经济稳定增长，保持就业、物价总体稳定”，中央电视台在中央经济工作会议结束后发的报道中称，这个为来年制定经济议程的会议为期两天。
The Chinese government typically uses the conference to signal priorities that could translate into policy action in the next year, and to agree on budget details that will be announced at the spring legislative session.
中国政府通常在中央经济工作会议上对可能成为来年政策行动的优先事项发出信号，并就将在春季人大会议上公布的预算细节达成一致。
Earlier this week, the ruling Politburo gave a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to take a stronger approach on the economy, when it indicated it would be more willing to lower interest rates. It was the first time that China’s leaders had eased their stance on monetary policy since the aftermath of the global financial crisis 14 years ago.
本周早些时候，中国最高权力机构中共中央政治局罕见地公开承认，政府需要在提振经济上拿出更有力的措施，并对降低利率表示了更大意愿。这是14年前全球爆发金融危机以来，中国领导人首次将他们的货币政策立场转为“适度宽松”。
Beijing has struggled this year to jump-start growth and reverse a broad decline in prices. The collapse of the real estate market, where most Chinese households build their wealth, has left consumers reluctant to spend. Many local governments have run out of money to pay workers’ salaries, and millions of young people are unemployed.
中国政府今年一直在努力提振经济，扭转价格的普遍下跌。房地产市场崩溃已导致消费者不愿意花钱，因为大多数中国家庭的财富来自房产。许多地方政府已没钱支付工人工资，数百万年轻人面临就业困难。
“People do not have confidence in the economic trajectory, so they’re holding back, and the government could do more to support them,” said Andrew Polk, a co-founder of Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.
“人们对经济走向没有信心，所以他们不想花钱，政府还可以在支持消费者上做更多的事情，”研究和咨询公司策纬的联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克说。
Since September, the Chinese government has rolled out a series of measures to address stagnant spending, including a $1.4 trillion plan to bail out local governments. But Beijing has typically favored state-led growth rather than direct consumer stimulus, and many doubt that officials will substantially shift spending away from priorities like manufacturing.
自今年9月以来，中国政府为解决支出停滞问题推出了一系列措施，其中包括一项救助地方政府的10万亿元计划。但中国政府通常更喜欢国家主导的增长，而不是直接刺激消费，许多人对官员会把支出大幅转向其他方面，而不是继续支持制造业等优先事项持怀疑态度。
China’s faltering economy faces an additional headwind in the coming year: an escalating contest with the United States over trade and control over advanced technology under Donald J. Trump’s second presidential term.
中国一蹶不振的经济明年还会面临另一个阻力：中国与美国在贸易和控制先进技术方面的竞争将在特朗普第二次执政期间进一步升级。
Mr. Trump has promised to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on goods imported from China. That could significantly dent China’s economic output next year, said Zhu Tian, a professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.
特朗普承诺对从中国进口的商品加征10%的额外关税。上海中欧国际工商学院经济学教授朱天表示，这可能会严重挫伤中国明年的经济产出。
Economists thought that the looming tariff threat would prompt Chinese businesses to rush to send shipments before Mr. Trump takes office. But China’s exports to the United States grew more slowly than expected in November, according to Chinese government data released this week. And some economists have warned that next year they could stop growing altogether.
经济学家们认为，关税威胁的逼近会促使中国企业赶在特朗普上任前匆忙发货。但据中国政府本周公布的数据，11月份中国对美出口增长低于预期。一些经济学家警告，中国对美国的出口明年可能会完全停止增长。
“The only bright spot has been exports, which could be hit by the tariff hike,” Mr. Zhu said. “So they have to do something to stimulate domestic demand and consumption.”
“经济的唯一亮点一直是出口，但加征关税可能会对出口造成冲击，”朱天说。“所以他们不得不采取措施刺激国内需求和消费。”
A persistent decline in prices for consumer goods from food to electronics has made these challenges even more complicated, as profits have shrunk and people have grown less willing to spend. This phenomenon, known as deflation, indicates that China’s economy may not be growing quite as fast as the official growth figures suggest.
从食品到电子产品等消费品价格持续下降使这些挑战变得更加复杂，随着商家的利润减少，人们的消费意愿越来越低。这个被称为通货紧缩的现象意味着，中国经济增长率也许没有官方数据显示的那么高。
Beijing could attempt to blunt the effect of tariffs by devaluing China’s currency, the renminbi, which would give exports a boost. But that risks further eroding public confidence at home, which could push people to save more and undermine spending. Mr. Xi has previously said that a strong currency was necessary for China to be a financial power.
中国政府可能会试图通过让人民币贬值来减轻关税的影响。虽然这会促进出口，但也可能进一步削弱国内公众信心，从而促使大家多存钱，少花钱。习近平已经发话，强大的货币是中国成为金融强国的必要条件。
Futures for Chinese stock markets, which were closed when the conference statements were reported, fell about one percent late Thursday.
中央经济工作会议纪要发布时，中国的股市已经收盘。股指在周四收盘时下跌了约1%。
Despite falling prices and weak spending, Beijing has set a growth target of around 5 percent for 2024. It could be harder to reach a comparable level next year.
尽管物价下跌、消费疲软，但中国政府仍把2024年的经济增长目标设定在5%左右。明年实现同等水平的增长可能会更难。
If the government sets the same target at the spring meeting, “real growth will be deviating even more from official growth,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the investment bank Natixis.
如果政府在明年春天召开全国人大时设定同样目标的话，“实际的增长率将会与官方的增长数字相差更大”，投资银行法国外贸银行亚太地区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗说。
Beijing has been using more proactive language this year compared with last, but the steps taken so far do not add up to the change the economy needs in the long run, Ms. Garcia-Herrero said.
她表示，与去年相比，中国政府今年宣布措施时一直在使用更积极主动的语言，但到目前为止，政府采取的措施并未带来经济长期发展所需的变化。
2024年12月12日
It was the last week of October, with the election fast approaching, and business was booming for Matthew Hiller. His Etsy shop was receiving hundreds of orders per day. He was preparing to leave for vacation in France, and was hoping that while he was away Elon Musk wouldn’t do anything “particularly crazy.”
那是10月的最后一周，大选即将开始，马修·希勒的生意十分红火。他的Etsy网店每天收到数百份订单。他当时正准备前往法国度假，希望在自己离开期间埃隆·马斯克不会做出什么“特别夸张”的事情。
It may seem strange, but every time Mr. Musk, the Tesla chief executive, causes a stir, Mr. Hiller has to fulfill orders for his online shops. The most popular of the items that he sells? Bumper stickers that say, in all-caps, “I Bought This Before We Knew Elon Was Crazy.”
听上去可能很怪，但每当特斯拉首席执行官马斯克引发争议，希勒就得应付网店收到的订单。他卖得最好的产品？用大写字母写着“这是在大家知道埃隆疯了之前买的”的保险杠贴纸。
For his vacation, Mr. Hiller asked a friend to cover for him. “I don’t know how she’s going to manage this,” he said. With Mr. Musk frequenting rallies in support of Donald J. Trump and posting on X relentlessly at the time, Mr. Hiller was dubious that business would slow. He had no idea that things were about to get far more hectic with Mr. Trump’s winning the presidential election and Mr. Musk’s status as his close ally.
度假期间，希勒请一位朋友替他打理网店。“我不知道她如何能应付，”他说。由于马斯克经常参加支持特朗普的集会，并在X上不停地发帖，希勒觉得生意应该不至于太差。让他想不到的是，随着特朗普赢得总统大选，马斯克成为他的亲密盟友，生意会比变得比以前还要火爆许多。
Mr. Musk spent more than $250 million on the 2024 election, according to federal filings, and then immediately stepped in as a key part of Mr. Trump’s transition team. Few business executives are as closely associated with their products as Mr. Musk, so his rise in the world of far-right politics led to plenty of celebration among Trump-supporting Tesla owners, but plenty of consternation among those who disagreed with the move, or who had simply grown tired of Mr. Musk.
根据联邦文件，马斯克在2024年大选上花费了超过2.5亿美元。然后，他立即成为了特朗普过渡团队的重要成员。很少有企业高管像马斯克这样，与他们的产品联系如此紧密，因此他在极右翼政治世界中的崛起让支持特朗普的特斯拉车主们欢呼雀跃，但也让那些不同意这一举动或只是厌倦了马斯克的人感到非常惊愕。
The solution, for many Tesla owners on both ends of that spectrum, has been to slap a bumper sticker on their car to let people know how they feel about Mr. Musk.
对于许多分处于政治光谱两端的特斯拉车主来说，解决方案就是在他们的车上贴上保险杠贴纸，让人们知道他们对马斯克的看法。
Mr. Hiller, who lives in Honolulu and works at the Waikiki Aquarium, became a key player in the situation by being ahead of the curve thanks to his side business: an Etsy shop called Mad Puffer Stickers.
家住檀香山的希勒在威基基水族馆工作，他凭借自己的副业——一家名为疯狂气鼓鱼贴纸(Mad Puffer Stickers)的Etsy网店，早早抓住了一个风口，成为了这一现象的关键人物。
At first, Mr. Hiller just sold stickers with fish illustrations (e.g. an image of a clownfish with the caption “Don’t talk to me. I’m a fishtrovert”) on Etsy and Amazon. He had been considering buying a Tesla, but in early 2023, several months after Mr. Musk completed his takeover of Twitter, Mr. Hiller said he found himself alienated by what he characterized as misinformation on the site.
起初，希勒只是在Etsy和亚马逊上销售带有鱼图案的贴纸（例如，一张小丑鱼的图片，上面写着“别跟我说话。我是个鱼向的人[fishtrovert]。”）。他考虑过买特斯拉，但2023年初，也就是马斯克完成对Twitter的收购几个月后，希勒说，由于这个网站上那些他所说的不实信息，他感到了隔阂。
“So I’m like, there’s no way I’m buying a Tesla: I don’t want to give this guy a penny,” he said. “Then I started thinking, there’s got to be so many people who are just embarrassed, who have a Tesla already, and they’re like, ‘Oh my god, now I’m repping this guy. I don’t want to endorse anything this guy stands for.’”
“所以我想，我不可能买特斯拉：我不想给这个人一分钱，”他说。“然后我开始想，肯定有很多已经是特斯拉车主的人觉得丢脸，他们会想说，‘天哪，现在我成了这个人的代言人了。我不想支持这个人所代表的任何东西。’”
联邦报备文件显示，公开支持特朗普的马斯克在 2024年大选上花费了超过2.5亿美元。
That is when he added the new bumper sticker — “I Bought This Before We Knew Elon Was Crazy” — to his offerings, aiming to draw in left-leaning Tesla owners. Initially, he sold between five and 10 of the stickers a day. But as Mr. Musk became increasingly outspoken in his support of Mr. Trump, more orders started to flow in, with Mr. Hiller reporting he has sold around 18,000 of the stickers across 30 countries.
就在那时，他在店里上架了一些新的保险杠贴纸——“这是在大家知道埃隆疯了之前买的，”旨在吸引有左派倾向的特斯拉车主。最初，他每天卖出五到10张贴纸。但随着马斯克越来越直白地支持特朗普，更多的订单开始涌入，希勒说，他已经在30个国家/地区售出了大约1.8万张贴纸。
“It’s become a pretty good side business,” Mr. Hiller said.
“这已经成为一项相当不错的副业，”希勒说。
The situation turned into an opportunity for supporters of Mr. Musk as well, with multiple pro-Musk bumper stickers surfacing, including one that seemed to be a direct response to Mr. Hiller’s that reads “I bought this after I knew Elon was awesome.”
同时这也为马斯克的支持者们带来了机会，各种各样支持马斯克的保险杠贴纸开始出现，其中一张似乎是对希勒产品的直接回应，上面写着“我知道埃隆很棒后就买了这个”。
Among the customers for that sticker was Sean Ziese, who runs a machine shop in eastern Oklahoma.
在俄克拉荷马州东部经营一家金属加工厂的肖恩·齐塞就买了这么一张贴纸。
“I’ve always been against E.V.s. — the oil patch is what puts food on my family’s table,” Mr. Ziese said. “During the Republican National Convention, Trump said that Elon is going to start supporting conservatives. I told my wife, ‘If Elon is going to start supporting conservatives and free speech, I’m going to start supporting Elon, even though I hate E.V.s.’”
“我一直反对电动汽车——油田养活了我们家，”齐塞说。“在共和党全国代表大会期间，特朗普说埃隆将开始支持保守派。我告诉我的妻子，‘如果埃隆开始支持保守派和言论自由，我也会开始支持埃隆，虽然我讨厌电动汽车。’”
So he bought a Cybertruck and added the “awesome” sticker. It has become his favorite car.
于是他买了一辆Cybertruck，贴上了那张“很棒”贴纸。这成了他最喜欢的车。
It is a situation fairly unique to Tesla that the company’s products are viewed, by some, as a direct endorsement of the company’s chief executive. Buying an Amazon Kindle does not necessarily signify that you’re a Jeff Bezos fan. And less than a decade ago, being a Tesla owner didn’t necessarily imply an endorsement of Mr. Musk’s public persona as much as it signaled an interest in electric cars, a fair amount of disposable income and a concern about climate change.
这种情况基本只会出现在特斯拉身上：有些人认为该公司的产品是对公司首席执行官的直接认可。购买亚马逊Kindle并不一定意味着你是杰夫·贝佐斯的粉丝。不到十年前，成为特斯拉车主并不一定意味着对马斯克公众形象的认可，而是表明对电动汽车感兴趣、有相当数量的可支配收入和对气候变化的关注。
It is not possible to know the overall impact of Mr. Musk’s political messaging on how Teslas are perceived by their owners. But his sharp pivot to the right was cited as a potential factor for a slump in sales earlier this year, and a vocal group of Tesla owners, like Mr. Hiller’s customers, has become self-conscious about the cars. For them, the anti-Musk bumper stickers allow them to create a distance from the company’s chief executive without actually selling their vehicle.
马斯克的政治信息在总体上如何影响车主对特斯拉的观感是很难说清的。但他的突然右倾被认为是今年早些时候特斯拉销量下滑的潜在因素。一群态度鲜明的特斯拉车主——比如希勒的那些顾客——已经对自己的车感到难为情。对他们来说，反马斯克的保险杠贴纸让他们能够与这家公司的首席执行官划清界限，同时又用不着把车卖了。
Brian Esola, a paralegal and real estate agent who lives on City Island in the Bronx, identifies as an “independent with left-leaning ideologies.” He purchased a Tesla in April, but began to feel uneasy about the implied association with Mr. Musk.
布莱恩·埃索拉是一名律师助理兼房地产经纪人，住在布朗克斯区城市岛，自称是“思想左倾的独立人士”。他于4月购买了一辆特斯拉，但开始对拥有特斯拉与马斯克的隐含联系感到不安。
“I appreciate what he does occasionally in his business endeavors, but from a personal perspective, and from his words and attributes and actions, I just could not support him,” Mr. Esola said. So he purchased a sticker from Mr. Hiller’s Etsy shop that said, “Anti Elon Tesla Club.”
“有时候，我确实欣赏他在商业方面的尝试，但从个人角度，从他的言行举止来看，我无法支持他，”埃索拉说。因此，他从希勒的Etsy网店购买了一张贴纸，上面写着“反埃隆·特斯拉俱乐部”。
Morgan Ames, a professor of data science at the University of California, Berkeley, purchased her first Tesla in 2013. Four years later, after she had her second child, she bought another one to accommodate her growing family.
2013年，加州大学伯克利分校数据科学教授摩根·埃姆斯购买了她的第一辆特斯拉。四年后，有了第二个孩子的她又买了一辆特斯拉，以满足一个更大的家庭的需求。
很少有公司首席执行官会像马斯克这样与自己的产品有如此紧密的联系。
“Even in 2017, we were definitely uncomfortable with some of the more outrageous stuff Elon Musk was saying in the news,” Ms. Ames said. She nevertheless doubled down on her Tesla ownership because she couldn’t find other electric cars that matched Tesla’s capabilities.
“即使在2017年，我们对埃隆·马斯克在新闻中说的一些较为离谱的话也感到很不舒服，”埃姆斯说。尽管如此，因为找不到其他能与特斯拉相媲美的电动汽车，她还是又购买了一辆特斯拉。
After Mr. Musk’s association with Mr. Trump became impossible to ignore, Ms. Ames printed a bumper sticker for her Tesla that said, “Shut up, Elon Musk.” She briefly sold them on the online marketplace Zazzle, but said her shop was removed after complaints. Nowadays, any time someone compliments her sticker, she gives them one.
在马斯克与特朗普的关系变得无法忽视后，埃姆斯为她的特斯拉打印了一张保险杠贴纸，上面写着“闭嘴，埃隆·马斯克”。她一度在网上市场Zazzle出售过这些贴纸，但她说她的店铺在收到投诉后被关闭了。现在，只要有人称赞她的贴纸，她就会送他们一张。
For Mr. Ziese, however, Mr. Musk’s actions have only made him more sure that he made the right decision.
但对于齐塞来说，马斯克的行为只会让他更加确信自己做出了正确的决定。
“It’s really a neat experience,” he said of driving his Cybertruck with its Elon bumper sticker. “It never would have happened if Elon never would have bought X, and, you know, got free speech going again.”
“体验绝了，”他谈到驾驶贴有埃隆保险杠贴纸的Cybertruck时说道。“如果埃隆当时没买X，这一切就不会发生，然后，你知道吧，现在言论自由又起来了。”
2024年12月12日
The movie calls out stigmas against female sexuality and stereotypes about single mothers. It name-drops feminist scholars, features a woman recalling domestic violence and laments Chinese censorship.
这部电影批评了对女性性欲的污名化和对单亲妈妈的刻板印象。片中提到女权主义学者的名字，片中一位女性回想曾经经受的家庭暴力，并谴责中国的审查制度。
This is not some indie film, streamed secretly by viewers circumventing China’s internet firewall. It is China’s biggest movie right now — and has even garnered praise from the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece.
这不是什么需要绕过中国的互联网防火墙到某个平台上偷偷播放的独立电影。这是中国目前最卖座的电影，甚至赢得了中共喉舌媒体的赞扬。
The success of “Her Story,” a comedy that topped China’s box office for the last three weeks, is in some ways unexpected, at a time when the government has cracked down on feminist activism, encouraged women to embrace marriage and childbearing and severely limited independent speech.
喜剧片《好东西》在过去三周连续占据中国票房榜首。在政府打击女权活动人士、鼓励女性结婚生子、严格限制独立言论的时候，这部影片的成功在某种意义上有点出乎意料。
The film’s reception reflects the unpredictable nature of censorship in the country, as well as the growing appetite for female-centered stories. Discussion of women’s issues is generally allowed so long as it does not morph into calls for rights. “Her Story,” which some have called China’s answer to “Barbie,” cushions many of its social critiques with jokes.
这部影片受到的欢迎反映了中国审查制度的不可预测，以及观众对以女性为主的故事越来越感兴趣。政府一般允许讨论女性问题，只要这些讨论不变成权利诉求。《好东西》用喜剧情节缓和了片中的许多社会批评，被一些人称为中国版的《芭比》(Barbie)。
The director of “Her Story,” Shao Yihui, has emphasized at public appearances that she is not interested in provoking “gender antagonism,” an accusation that official media has sometimes lobbed against feminists.
《好东西》的导演邵艺辉已在公开场合强调，她对挑起“性别对立”不感兴趣。官方媒体批评女权主义者时有时使用这种指责。
At a time of sluggish growth and anemic ticket sales, movie producers — and perhaps government regulators — have been eager to attract female audience members, an increasingly important consumer base. Other recent hit movies have also been directed by and starred women, including the year’s top box office performer, “YOLO.”
在中国电影市场增长缓慢、票房惨淡之际，电影制片人——或许还有政府监管者们——都在想方设法吸引女性观众，她们是一个越来越重要的消费群体。最近的其他几部热门电影也由女性导演和主演，包括今年春节档的票房冠军《热辣滚烫》。
Still, “Her Story,” the second feature from Ms. Shao, 33, was not expected to reach anywhere near this level of success. It was low-budget and at first released only in a few major cities.
尽管如此，人们并没有想到33岁的邵艺辉的第二部作品《好东西》会取得今天这样的成功。这部低预算的影片最初只在几个大城市上映。
It follows two women who become neighbors in Shanghai: Xiao Ye, a free-spirited but emotionally vulnerable singer, and Wang Tiemei, a no-nonsense former journalist and single mother to 9-year-old Molly. As their friendship develops, the women team up to raise Molly; encourage each other professionally; and laugh at their clueless suitors, who try to outdo each other in quoting feminist theory and declaring their “original sin” of being born male.
故事情节围绕两名在上海成为邻居的女性展开。歌手小叶自由奔放、但情感脆弱。当过记者的王铁梅严肃务实，是九岁女孩王茉莉的单亲妈妈。随着友谊加深，她们携手照顾王茉莉，在事业上互相鼓励；她们嘲笑追求她们的毫无头绪的男性，后者试图用引用女权主义理论、宣称自己生为男性是“原罪”，以此互相拆台。
影片的两名主角是自由奔放、但感情脆弱的歌手小叶（右）和当过记者、严肃务实的单亲妈妈王铁梅。
Ticket sales were initially slow, but the women who did watch became fervent evangelists. The film soon became ubiquitous. It now has a 9.1 rating out of 10 on the Chinese film-rating site Douban and has taken in more than $77 million, according to Maoyan, which tracks ticket sales. It is projected to be one of China’s top 15 highest-grossing films of the year.
这部电影的票房最初并不高，但看过电影的女性成了它最热情的宣传者，电影很快在全国各地上映。该片在中国电影评级网站豆瓣上的评分是9.1（满分为10）；据跟踪票房表现的猫眼网站，其票房收入已超过5.7亿元，它有望将成为中国今年票房最高的15部电影之一。
Among young women it has spawned memes, podcast episodes and T-shirts.
在年轻女性中，它催生了米姆、播客和T恤衫。
Xu Tianyi, a student in the central Chinese city of Luoyang, said she had never seen a movie that directly addressed so many topics women cared about. She cited a scene in which Tiemei is shamed online for writing about her sex life, by people who suggest she’s a bad mother.
洛阳市的一名学生徐天一（音）说，她此前从未看过一部如此直接地探讨诸多女性关注话题的电影。她提到了这样一个场景：铁梅在网上因为写自己的性生活而遭到网暴，留下恶评的网民说她不是个好母亲。
But the film’s heartwarming story made it accessible for people new to feminism too, said Ms. Xu, who counted herself among that group. “This movie is gentle, but it also has a little edge.” She and her friends had been quoting lines from the movie to each other. “It shows that feminism is spreading.”
但徐天一说，电影温馨的故事情节让刚接触女权主义的人也能接受。徐天一自己也属于这一群体。她说：“这部电影是柔和的，但是会有一点锐利。”她和朋友们一直在引用电影中的台词。“这是女性主义普及的现象。”
The movie has its critics, including some who griped that the men in the movie are portrayed as inept or clownlike. On Hupu, a sports forum popular with male users, the movie has a rating of 4.9.
这部电影也遭遇了批评，有些人抱怨电影中的男性被描绘成无能的形象，或者显得像是小丑。在深受男性用户欢迎的体育论坛虎扑上，这部电影的评分为4.9。
But generally, the response has been positive — even from somewhat unexpected quarters.
但总体而言，关于这部电影的反响还是积极的——甚至来自一些意想不到的方面。
A commentary in People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, praised the movie’s depiction of “humorous and absurd” aspects of daily life. It did not explicitly acknowledge specific women’s issues the movie raised, such as domestic violence but it said that directors should, like Ms. Shao, reflect what audiences cared about.
共产党的喉舌《人民日报》在一篇评论文章中称赞了这部电影对日常生活“幽默与荒诞”的描写。文章没有明确认可电影中提出的具体女性问题，比如家庭暴力，但表示导演们应该像邵艺辉一样，反映观众关心的问题。
Xiaoning Lu, a scholar of Chinese cinema at the University of London, said that the authorities often left room for people to vent their frustrations, so long as they didn’t cross political lines.
伦敦大学中国电影学者陆小宁表示，只要人们不越过政治界限，当局往往会给人们留下发泄不满的空间。
Female-centered storytelling was not inherently anathema to the state, she added, noting that an actress in “Her Story” also recently starred in a television drama about a real-life female principal, a party member, who helps impoverished rural schoolgirls.
她还说，以女性为中心的叙事方式本质上并不是政府的禁忌，并指出《好东西》中的一位女演员最近还主演了一部电视剧，讲述一位现实生活中的党员女校长帮助贫困农村女学生的故事。
“There are many faces of feminism in China,” Dr. Lu said. “It’s for the artist or director to find a balance. What is the limit? How much can you push the boundaries?”
“中国女权主义有很多面，”陆小宁说。“艺术家或导演需要找到平衡点。界限在哪里？你能在多大程度上推动边界？”
Some of the movie’s sharpest references were not about feminism, but about censorship or people using accusations of political disloyalty to settle personal grudges (a classmate of Molly’s tries to report her to their teacher when she outperforms him academically). But those scenes were fleeting.
电影中最尖锐的批评并非关于女权主义，而是针对审查制度，或者人们利用政治不忠诚的指控来解决个人恩怨（茉莉的一位同学试图向老师举报她，因为她的成绩比他好）。但这些场景一晃而过。
Still, even as the director has been careful to avoid accusations of radicalism, she has defended so-called “extreme feminists.” At a question-and-answer session with audience members last month, she said that she simply may not be as brave as others who spoke out more pointedly.
尽管导演一直小心翼翼地避免被指激进主义，但她还是为所谓的“极端女权”辩护。在上月与观众的问答环节中，她说自己可能不像其他发言更尖锐的人士那样勇敢。
“It’s only because of extreme voices that people pay attention,” Ms. Shao said. “If everyone’s voice was very mild, it’s actually similar to having no voice.”
“是因为有偏激的声音才会有人注意到。，”邵艺辉说。“如果每个人的声音都很温和，那其实就相当于没有。”
2024年12月12日
Luigi Mangione, who has been charged with killing the chief executive of UnitedHealthcare outside a company investors’ day in Manhattan, was arrested with a notebook that detailed plans for the shooting, according to two law enforcement officials.
路易吉·曼吉奥尼被指控在纽约曼哈顿一个投资者聚会场地外杀害了联合健康保险公司的首席执行官，据两名执法人员称，他被捕时携带了一本详细记录刺杀计划的笔记本。
The notebook described going to a conference and killing an executive, the officials said.
官员表示，笔记本上写着要去一个活动，并杀死一名高管。
“What do you do? You wack the C.E.O. at the annual parasitic bean-counter convention. It’s targeted, precise, and doesn’t risk innocents,” was one passage written in the notebook, the officials said.
“你要做什么？你在一年一度的寄生虫数钱大会上干掉首席执行官。这是有目标的、精准的，不会伤及无辜，”官员们称笔记本上有一段话是这样写的。
The shooting of the executive, Brian Thompson, occurred early Dec. 4 as Mr. Thompson arrived on West 54th Street outside a Hilton hotel to prepare for the UnitedHealthcare investors’ meeting. His assailant escaped on a bicycle and then disappeared.
12月4日清晨，高管布莱恩·汤普森抵达西54街希尔顿酒店外时遭到枪击，他前往酒店是为联合健康保险公司的投资者会议做准备。袭击者骑自行车逃走，随后消失不见。
Police officials in New York were able to match Mr. Mangione’s fingerprints to those on a water bottle and a Kind snack bar wrapper recovered near the crime scene, Commissioner Jessica Tisch said at a news conference on Wednesday.
纽约警察局长杰西卡·蒂施在周三的新闻发布会上表示，纽约警方确认曼吉奥尼的指纹与在犯罪现场附近发现的水瓶和健达巧克力棒包装上的指纹相符。
Commissioner Tisch said the New York police now have the unregistered gun that was found in Mr. Mangione’s possession when he was arrested in Altoona, Pa., on Monday. The police brought it to the department’s crime lab, where they matched it to the three shell casings that were found at the crime scene, she said. The crime lab confirmed they matched the suspect’s, police officials said in a briefing with reporters on Wednesday afternoon.
蒂施局长表示，纽约警方现已查获曼吉奥尼在宾夕法尼亚州阿尔图纳被捕时携带的未注册枪支。她说，警方已将枪支送至警局犯罪实验室，并确认其与犯罪现场发现的三个弹壳匹配。警方官员在周三下午向记者通报情况时表示，犯罪实验室确认这些弹壳与嫌犯的枪支匹配。
The police were also analyzing a bag of bullets found this week in Central Park to see if they were connected to the killing, one of the law enforcement officials said.
一名执法人员称，警方还在分析本周在中央公园发现的一袋子弹，以确定它们是否与这起谋杀案有关。
Mr. Mangione, 26, was captured Monday after a tip from an employee at a McDonald’s in Altoona, who was alerted by a customer who recognized him. He has been denied bail on a murder charge and is fighting extradition to New York, a process that could take weeks.
26岁的曼吉奥尼在阿尔图纳一家麦当劳的员工举报后于周一被捕。一名顾客认出他后告知了该员工。曼吉奥尼因谋杀控罪被拒绝保释，他正在争取不被引渡到纽约，这一过程可能需要数周时间。
“He is contesting it,” his lawyer, Thomas Dickey, said on Tuesday. Mr. Dickey did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.
“他在对此提出异议，”他的律师托马斯·迪克周二表示。迪克周三没有立即回应置评请求。
When Mr. Mangione was arrested, he had the so-called ghost gun, a suppressor and false identification cards similar to those believed to have been used by the killer, officials said. He also had identification bearing his real name.
官员们表示，曼吉奥尼被捕时身上带有所谓的“幽灵枪”、消音器和伪造的身份证件，与据信凶手曾使用的证件类似。此外，他还持有印有自己真实姓名的证件。
The police also found Mr. Mangione with a Faraday bag, which blocks electromagnetic signals and prevents a cellphone from being tracked, the police said at the briefing on Wednesday.
警方在周三的简报会上表示，他们还发现曼吉奥尼携带了一个法拉第袋，这个袋子可以屏蔽电磁信号，防止手机被追踪。
He also had a 262-word handwritten note, which begins by appearing to take responsibility for the murder. The note, which officials described as a manifesto, also mentioned the existence of a notebook. The recovery of the notebook was first reported by CNN.
曼吉奥尼还带着一张手写了262字的便条，开头似乎是在为谋杀承担责任。官员们将这张便条描述为一份宣言，其中还提到了一个笔记本的存在。CNN首次报道了笔记本的发现。
The suspect saw the killing as a “symbolic takedown,” according to a New York Police Department internal report that detailed parts of the three-page document. He “likely views himself as a hero of sorts who has finally decided to act upon such injustices,” the report said.
纽约警察局内部报告对这份三页文件的部分内容做出了详细描述，根据该报告，嫌疑人将这起杀人事件视为“象征性的打击”。报告称，他“可能认为自己是某种英雄，最终决定对这种不公正采取行动”。
On his way into court on Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Mangione shouted about “an insult to the intelligence of the American people and their lived experience.” It was not clear what he was referring to as deputies worked to push him into the courthouse. On Wednesday, the sheriff of Blair County, James E. Ott, said that Mr. Mangione had not otherwise given deputies any problems.
星期二下午，曼吉奥尼在前往法庭的路上高喊“这是对美国人民智力和生活经验的侮辱”。由于警员正努力将他推进法院，我们不清楚他指的是什么。星期三，布莱尔县治安官詹姆斯·E·奥特表示，除此之外曼吉奥尼没有给警员制造什么麻烦。
Mr. Mangione, part of a sprawling and prominent Baltimore family, went to an elite high school in the city and graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. He had worked at several tech companies and had a long interest in developing computer games.
曼吉奥尼来自巴尔的摩一个显赫家族，曾就读于该市的一所精英高中，并毕业于宾夕法尼亚大学。他曾在多家科技公司工作，对开发电脑游戏有着浓厚的兴趣。
In years of posts on a Reddit account, he described a series of life-altering health problems. He said that he had back pain that worsened until a surgery in 2023 and that he had struggled with “brain fog.” But his only reference to insurance coverage in the posts noted that Blue Cross Blue Shield had covered testing for irritable bowel syndrome.
在其Reddit账户持续发布多年的帖子中，他描述了一系列改变其人生的健康问题。他说，他的背痛一直恶化，直到2023年接受手术，他还饱受“脑雾”困扰。不过，其中唯一提及保险覆盖的是指出蓝十字蓝盾保险涵盖了肠易激综合征的检查。
Mr. Mangione stopped communicating with friends and family about six months ago. His mother filed a missing-person report last month.
曼吉奥尼大约在六个月前不再与朋友和家人联系。他的母亲上个月提交了失踪人口报告。
Benjamin Brafman, a prominent defense lawyer in New York whose clients have included Sean Combs, Harvey Weinstein and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said Wednesday that the police had amassed an “overwhelming” amount of evidence that left little room for Mr. Mangione to mount a viable defense at trial.
纽约著名辩护律师本杰明·布拉夫曼周三表示，警方已经收集了“压倒性的”证据，曼吉奥尼几乎没有机会在庭审中进行有效的辩护。布拉夫曼的前客户包括肖恩·康布斯（即说唱歌手“吹牛老爹“，编注）、哈维·温斯坦和多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩。
“This was a rather brazen act of violence,” Mr. Brafman said. “Given that there doesn’t seem to be an inch of Manhattan that isn’t covered in video recording devices, it’s hard to explain away what happened.”
“这是一起非常明目张胆的暴力事件，”布拉夫曼说。“曼哈顿似几乎没有一寸土地不被监控设备覆盖，因此很难给发生的事情找借口。”
Still, he said, that did not mean that prosecutors’ jobs would be easy. They will have a hard time finding jurors who do not feel they have been treated unfairly by the health care industry.
尽管如此，他说，这并不意味着检察官的工作会轻松。他们很难找到那些认为自己没有受到医疗行业不公平对待的陪审员。
“I think most people when questioned about that issue will say, ‘Yeah, I dealt with a health care industry that I was unhappy with,’” he said. “But they didn’t go out and execute the head of an insurance company.”
“我认为，当被问及这个问题时，大多数人会说，‘是的，我与一个我不满意的医疗保健行业打过交道。’”他说，“但这些人并没有去杀害保险公司的负责人。”
Police officials in New York City, already concerned that the shooting might inspire other violence, have noted that numerous mock “Wanted” posters with images of high-profile corporate executives had been posted along Manhattan sidewalks. A video on social media showed three fliers with images of top executives; one of the fliers featured Mr. Thompson’s face with an X over it.
纽约市警方已经在担心枪击事件可能引发其他暴力事件，他们注意到，曼哈顿人行道上张贴了许多模仿“通缉令”的海报，上面印有知名公司高管的照片。社交媒体上的一段视频显示了三张传单印有高管的照片，其中一张印有汤普森的脸，上面画了一个“X”。
The Police Department included some of the images in its internal report, which warned that people on social media were celebrating the shooting and encouraging more killings of executives. The report mentioned “an elevated threat facing executives in the near term” and said there was “a risk that a wide range of extremists may view Mangione as a martyr and an example to follow.”
警察局将其中一些图片纳入了内部报告，警告社交媒体上有人正在庆祝枪击事件，并鼓励更多人杀害高管。报告提到“高管近期面临的威胁加剧”，并指出“许多极端分子可能将曼吉奥尼视为烈士和效仿的榜样”。
Just hours after Mr. Mangione was arrested on Monday at the McDonald’s, a young woman was standing outside holding a sign that said “Corrupt insurance C.E.O.s have got to go.”
就在曼吉奥尼星期一在麦当劳被捕几小时后，一名年轻女子站在那家门店外举着标语，上面写着“腐败的保险CEO必须滚”。
2012年1月22日
When Barack Obama joined Silicon Valley’s top luminaries for dinner in California last February, each guest was asked to come with a question for the president.
去年2月 ，巴拉克·奥巴马在加州与硅谷的各位顶尖名人共进晚餐。按照这次晚宴的规矩，每位客人都得向总统提一个问题。
在中国，林丽娜（音）是PCH International的一个项目经理。该公司和苹果签有合同。"有很多工作机会，"她说。“特别是在深圳。”
But as Steven P. Jobs of Apple spoke, President Obama interrupted with an inquiry of his own: what would it take to make iPhones in the United States?
然而，轮到苹果公司的史蒂芬·P·乔布斯(Steven P. Jobs)说话的时候，奥巴马总统却用自己的问题打断了他：要在美国生产iPhone的话，需要满足什么样的条件呢？
Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas.
没多久之前，苹果公司还吹嘘自己的产品都是“美国制造”。今天，美国制造的苹果产品已经少之又少。苹果公司去年售出了7000万部iPhone、3000万台iPad和5900万台其他产品，这些产品几乎都是在海外制造的。
Why can’t that work come home? Mr. Obama asked.
干嘛不把这些工作拿回来做呢？奥巴马先生问道。
Mr. Jobs’s reply was unambiguous. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he said, according to another dinner guest.
乔布斯先生的回答毫不含糊。按照另一位在座嘉宾的说法，乔布斯的回答是：“这些工作是不会回来的。”
The president’s question touched upon a central conviction at Apple. It isn’t just that workers are cheaper abroad. Rather, Apple’s executives believe the vast scale of overseas factories as well as the flexibility, diligence and industrial skills of foreign workers have so outpaced their American counterparts that “Made in the U.S.A.” is no longer a viable option for most Apple products.
总统的问题触及了苹果公司的一个核心信念。苹果的做法不光是因为外国工人比较便宜。更重要的是，苹果公司管理层认为，外国工厂的巨大规模，以及外国工人的灵活性、勤勉精神和工业技能，全都远远地超过了美国同侪。这样一来，对于大多数的苹果产品来说，“美国制造”已经不再是一个可行的选择。
Apple has become one of the best-known, most admired and most imitated companies on earth, in part through an unrelenting mastery of global operations. Last year, it earned over $400,000 in profit per employee, more than Goldman Sachs, Exxon Mobil or Google.
苹果公司已经成为全球最知名、最受人崇敬、最多人仿效的企业之一，原因之一就是它毫不手软地实施着高水平的全球运作。去年，苹果公司员工创造的人均利润超过了40万美元，令高盛(Goldman Sachs)、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)和谷歌(Google)相形见绌。
However, what has vexed Mr. Obama as well as economists and policy makers is that Apple — and many of its high-technology peers — are not nearly as avid in creating American jobs as other famous companies were in their heydays.
然而，让奥巴马先生、各位经济学家和各位决策人士着恼的是，说到为美国创造工作机会的问题，苹果公司跟它的许多高科技同行一样，远不像其他一些鼎盛时期的著名公司那么热心。
Apple employs 43,000 people in the United States and 20,000 overseas, a small fraction of the over 400,000 American workers at General Motors in the 1950s, or the hundreds of thousands at General Electric in the 1980s. Many more people work for Apple’s contractors: an additional 700,000 people engineer, build and assemble iPads, iPhones and Apple’s other products. But almost none of them work in the United States. Instead, they work for foreign companies in Asia, Europe and elsewhere, at factories that almost all electronics designers rely upon to build their wares.
苹果公司在美国有四万三千名雇员，并有两万名海外雇员。20世纪50年代的通用汽车公司(General Motors)雇用了超过40万美国工人，20世纪80年代的通用电气(General Electric)也拥有数十万美国员工，与之相比，苹果公司的员工数目只是一个零头。为苹果的外包商打工的人却要比这多得多：苹果员工之外，另有70万人在设计、制造和组装iPad、iPhone和其他苹果产品。不过，这些人的工作地点几乎都不在美国。恰恰相反，他们的雇主是亚洲、欧洲和其他地方的外国公司，几乎所有的电子产品设计商都要靠他们服务的厂家来制造产品。
“Apple’s an example of why it’s so hard to create middle-class jobs in the U.S. now,” said Jared Bernstein, who until last year was an economic adviser to the White House.“If it’s the pinnacle of capitalism, we should be worried.”
直到去年还在担任白宫经济顾问的杰瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)说，“今天的美国很难创造出适合中产阶级的工作机会，苹果公司的做法就可以说明原因何在。如果说苹果公司代表着资本主义巅峰状态的话，我们就该担惊受怕了。”
Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone’s screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight.
苹果管理层宣称，走向海外是他们在目前阶段的惟一选择。按照一位前苹果管理人员的讲述，离iPhone预定上架日期只有数周的时候，苹果公司靠一家中国工厂帮忙才完成了生产计划。原因在于苹果公司临时改变了iPhone屏幕的设计，不得不对装配线进行全面调整。将近午夜的时候，新的屏幕才陆续运抵装配工厂。
A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day.
根据这位管理人员的说法，厂里的一名工头立刻叫醒了公司宿舍里的八千名工人，给每名工人发了一包饼干和一杯茶，吩咐他们前往车间。不到半个钟头，往倾斜放置的手机外壳上安装玻璃屏幕的12小时工作班次宣告开始。不到96个小时，那家工厂就已经在以日产一万多台的速度生产iPhone了。
“The speed and flexibility is breathtaking,” the executive said. “There’s no American plant that can match that.”
这位管理人员说，“那家工厂的速度和灵活性令人咋舌，没有哪家美国工厂能跟它相提并论。”
Similar stories could be told about almost any electronics company — and outsourcing has also become common in hundreds of industries, including accounting, legal services, banking, auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.
几乎所有的电子公司都讲得出类似的故事，“外包”也已经成为数百个行业的通行做法，会计、法律服务、银行、汽车制造和制药行业都是如此。
But while Apple is far from alone, it offers a window into why the success of some prominent companies has not translated into large numbers of domestic jobs. What’s more, the company’s decisions pose broader questions about what corporate America owes Americans as the global and national economies are increasingly intertwined.
苹果公司虽然远远算不上个例，但却为我们提供了一个窗口，我们可以从中窥见，一些杰出公司的成功表现为什么没有衍生大量的国内工作机会。除此之外，这家公司的种种决策还引出了一个更为深广的问题，在全球经济与国内经济日益融合的今天，美国企业对美国国民负有什么样的责任。
“Companies once felt an obligation to support American workers, even when it wasn’t the best financial choice,” said Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Labor Department until last September. “That’s disappeared. Profits and efficiency have trumped generosity.”
直至去年9月还是美国劳工部首席经济学家的贝特西·史蒂文森(Betsey Stevenson)说，“美国公司曾经觉得自己有责任支持美国工人，即便这并不是财务上的最佳选择。这样的观念已然不复存在，利润和效率压倒了慷慨的情操。”
Companies and other economists say that notion is naïve. Though Americans are among the most educated workers in the world, the nation has stopped training enough people in the mid-level skills that factories need, executives say.
各家公司以及其他一些经济学家纷纷表示，前述观念实属天真幼稚。公司高管们指出，美国人虽然居于世界上教育程度最高的工人之列，但美国的培训工作已经跟不上形势，再也不能为各家工厂提供足够数量的中等技术工人了。
To thrive, companies argue they need to move work where it can generate enough profits to keep paying for innovation. Doing otherwise risks losing even more American jobs over time, as evidenced by the legions of once-proud domestic manufacturers — including G.M. and others — that have shrunk as nimble competitors have emerged.
各家公司辩称，要想兴旺发达，他们就只能把工作转移到那些利润足以维持不断创新的地方。如其不然，假以时日，美国的工作机会还有进一步减少的风险。例证便是包括通用在内的众多美国制造业巨头，它们曾经豪气干云，后来却纷纷缩水，因为市场上出现了一些身手灵活的竞争者。
Apple was provided with extensive summaries of The New York Times’s reporting for this article, but the company, which has a reputation for secrecy, declined to comment.
《纽约时报》向苹果公司提供了本篇报道的详细纲要，然而，以行事隐秘著称的苹果公司拒绝就此发表评论。
This article is based on interviews with more than three dozen current and former Apple employees and contractors — many of whom requested anonymity to protect their jobs — as well as economists, manufacturing experts, international trade specialists, technology analysts, academic researchers, employees at Apple’s suppliers, competitors and corporate partners, and government officials.
本篇报道基于大量访谈，采访对象包括近40名离职或现职苹果员工及外包商，其中多人都要求隐去姓名，怕的是丢掉工作。此外，报道的采访对象还包括一些经济学家、制造业专家、国际贸易专家、技术分析家、学术研究人员、苹果供应商员工、竞争对手、合作伙伴以及政府官员。
Privately, Apple executives say the world is now such a changed place that it is a mistake to measure a company’s contribution simply by tallying its employees — though they note that Apple employs more workers in the United States than ever before.
苹果公司的一些管理人员私下表示，鉴于世界形势已经急剧改变，仅以员工数目来衡量企业贡献是一种错误的做法。他们同时指出，苹果在美国的工人数目比以往任何时候都要多。
They say Apple’s success has benefited the economy by empowering entrepreneurs and creating jobs at companies like cellular providers and businesses shipping Apple products. And, ultimately, they say curing unemployment is not their job.
他们说，苹果的成功给创业者带来了商机，并在手机运营商以及苹果产品承运人之类的企业里催生了更多的工作机会，由此推动了美国经济。他们还说，说到底，消除失业并不是他们的事情。
“We sell iPhones in over a hundred countries,” a current Apple executive said. “We don’t have an obligation to solve America’s problems. Our only obligation is making the best product possible.”
苹果公司的一位现职管理人员说，“我们在100多个国家销售iPhone，并没有义务解决美国的问题。我们只有一个义务，那就是推出最好的产品。”
‘I Want a Glass Screen’
“我想要玻璃屏幕”
In 2007, a little over a month before the iPhone was scheduled to appear in stores, Mr. Jobs beckoned a handful of lieutenants into an office. For weeks, he had been carrying a prototype of the device in his pocket.
2007年，离iPhone预定的上架时间还有一个月出头，乔布斯先生把一小群僚属召进了一间办公室。几个星期以来，他兜里一直都揣着一部iPhone样机。
Mr. Jobs angrily held up his iPhone, angling it so everyone could see the dozens of tiny scratches marring its plastic screen, according to someone who attended the meeting. He then pulled his keys from his jeans.
据一名与会者回忆，乔布斯先生气冲冲地举起了样机，调整着样机的角度，好让大家都看到塑料屏幕上的几十条微小划痕。这之后，他把自己的钥匙从牛仔裤兜里掏了出来。
People will carry this phone in their pocket, he said. People also carry their keys in their pocket. “I won’t sell a product that gets scratched,” he said tensely. The only solution was using unscratchable glass instead. “I want a glass screen, and I want it perfect in six weeks.”
他告诉与会者，人们都会把手机揣在兜里，还会把钥匙装进去。“我不愿意出售会有划痕的产品，”他疾言厉色地说。这一来，惟一的办法便是代之以不会产生划痕的玻璃。“我想要玻璃屏幕，这件事情必须在六周之内办好。”
After one executive left that meeting, he booked a flight to Shenzhen, China. If Mr. Jobs wanted perfect, there was nowhere else to go.
与会的一名管理人员走出房间，订了一张去深圳的机票。既然乔布斯先生提出了“办好”的要求，那就只能到深圳去。
For over two years, the company had been working on a project — code-named Purple 2 — that presented the same questions at every turn: how do you completely reimagine the cellphone? And how do you design it at the highest quality — with an unscratchable screen, for instance — while also ensuring that millions can be manufactured quickly and inexpensively enough to earn a significant profit?
两年多的时间里，苹果公司一直在开发这个代号为“紫色2”(Purple 2)的项目，同样的一些问题在项目的每个阶段反复浮现：怎样才能彻底颠覆原有的“手机”概念？怎样才能设计出一款质量最上乘——比如说，带有不会划花的屏幕——的手机，同时确保公司能以足够低廉的成本迅速推出数以百万计的产品、由此赚取丰厚的利润呢？
The answers, almost every time, were found outside the United States. Though components differ between versions, all iPhones contain hundreds of parts, an estimated 90 percent of which are manufactured abroad. Advanced semiconductors have come from Germany and Taiwan, memory from Korea and Japan, display panels and circuitry from Korea and Taiwan, chipsets from Europe and rare metals from Africa and Asia. And all of it is put together in China.
几乎是在每一次讨论当中，问题的答案都出现在美国之外。iPhone的组件虽然因型号而异，所有的iPhone却都包含着数百个零件，在海外生产的零件估计占总数的90%。高科技半导体来自德国和台湾，内存来自韩国和日本，显示屏和电路板来自韩国和台湾，芯片组来自欧洲，稀有金属来自非洲和亚洲，组装的地点则是中国。
In its early days, Apple usually didn’t look beyond its own backyard for manufacturing solutions. A few years after Apple began building the Macintosh in 1983, for instance, Mr. Jobs bragged that it was “a machine that is made in America.” In 1990, while Mr. Jobs was running NeXT, which was eventually bought by Apple, the executive told a reporter that “I’m as proud of the factory as I am of the computer.” As late as 2002, top Apple executives occasionally drove two hours northeast of their headquarters to visit the company’s iMac plant in Elk Grove, Calif.
创业之初，苹果公司通常只会在自家后院里寻找代工厂。举例来说，该公司于1983年推出了个人台式电脑Macintosh，数年之后，乔布斯先生曾经吹嘘它是“真正美国制造的机器”。1990年，乔布斯先生还在打理后来被苹果收购的NeXT公司。当时他曾经告诉一名记者，“我为我们的电脑自豪，同样为我们的工厂自豪。”迟至2002年，苹果公司的高层都还会时不时地开车往总部的东北方向走上两个小时的车，到加州的埃克格鲁夫(Elk Grove)去视察公司的iMac工厂。
But by 2004, Apple had largely turned to foreign manufacturing. Guiding that decision was Apple’s operations expert, Timothy D. Cook, who replaced Mr. Jobs as chief executive last August, six weeks before Mr. Jobs’s death. Most other American electronics companies had already gone abroad, and Apple, which at the time was struggling, felt it had to grasp every advantage.
然而，进入2004年的时候，苹果公司已经把大部分的生产工作转到了国外。主导这一决策的人是苹果公司的运营专家蒂莫西·D·库克(Timothy D. Cook)。去年8月，乔布斯先生去世六周之前，他接替乔布斯先生当上了苹果的首席执行官。2004年的时候，大多数美国电子公司已然转向海外，正在挣扎求生的苹果公司由是认为，自己必须用上所有的有利条件。
In part, Asia was attractive because the semiskilled workers there were cheaper. But that wasn’t driving Apple. For technology companies, the cost of labor is minimal compared with the expense of buying parts and managing supply chains that bring together components and services from hundreds of companies.
亚洲之所以诱人，部分原因是那里的半熟练工人比较便宜。不过，吸引苹果公司的并不是这一点。对于高科技公司来说，支出的大头是零件采购和管理来自数百个公司的组件及服务供应链，与之相较，人力成本可谓微不足道。
For Mr. Cook, the focus on Asia “came down to two things,” said one former high-ranking Apple executive. Factories in Asia “can scale up and down faster” and “Asian supply chains have surpassed what’s in the U.S.” The result is that “we can’t compete at this point,” the executive said.
一名苹果公司前高管说，按照库克先生的看法，聚焦亚洲的决策“可以归结为两个原因”。亚洲的工厂“扩大或缩小规模的速度比较快”，与此同时，“亚洲的供应链也比美国强”。这名前高管说，由此而来的结果就是“在这一阶段，我们没法跟别人竞争”。
The impact of such advantages became obvious as soon as Mr. Jobs demanded glass screens in 2007.
2007年，乔布斯先生提出关于玻璃屏幕的要求之后，上述条件的优越性立刻变得一目了然。
For years, cellphone makers had avoided using glass because it required precision in cutting and grinding that was extremely difficult to achieve. Apple had already selected an American company, Corning Inc., to manufacture large panes of strengthened glass. But figuring out how to cut those panes into millions of iPhone screens required finding an empty cutting plant, hundreds of pieces of glass to use in experiments and an army of midlevel engineers. It would cost a fortune simply to prepare.
多年以来，手机生产商一直不愿意使用玻璃屏幕，因为它需要精确的切割和打磨，达到标准的难度非常之大。苹果公司已经选定美国的康宁公司(Corning Inc.)来生产大块的强化玻璃板。然而，要想把玻璃板切成数以百万计的iPhone屏幕，那就得找到一家空闲的切割工厂、数百块实验用的玻璃板以及一大帮中级技师。光是准备工作就得消耗一大笔资金。
Then a bid for the work arrived from a Chinese factory.
就在这时，一家中国工厂跑来投标，要求承揽这项工作。
When an Apple team visited, the Chinese plant’s owners were already constructing a new wing. “This is in case you give us the contract,” the manager said, according to a former Apple executive. The Chinese government had agreed to underwrite costs for numerous industries, and those subsidies had trickled down to the glass-cutting factory. It had a warehouse filled with glass samples available to Apple, free of charge. The owners made engineers available at almost no cost. They had built on-site dormitories so employees would be available 24 hours a day.
苹果的考察小组赶到那家中国工厂的时候，厂主们已经开始兴建新厂房了。一名前苹果公司管理人员回忆，厂长的解释是，“这是在提前做准备，免得你们的订单让我们措手不及”。此前中国政府已经承诺为许多产业提供成本补贴，那家玻璃切割工厂也从中分了一杯羹。他们有一间装满玻璃样品的仓库，可以向苹果公司提供免费样品。厂主们还答应提供技师，几乎不需要费用。他们已经建起了厂内宿舍，员工可以24小时随叫随到。
The Chinese plant got the job.
那家中国工厂拿到了订单。
“The entire supply chain is in China now,” said another former high-ranking Apple executive. “You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That’s the factory next door. You need a million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? It will take three hours.”
另一名前苹果高管说，“整条供应链如今都在中国。需要1000个橡胶垫圈吗？隔壁就有这样的工厂。需要100万个螺丝钉吗？厂子就在一个街区之外。需要对螺丝钉做一点小小的改动吗？三个小时就可以办到。”
In Foxconn City
走进“富士康城”
An eight-hour drive from that glass factory is a complex, known informally as Foxconn City, where the iPhone is assembled. To Apple executives, Foxconn City was further evidence that China could deliver workers — and diligence — that outpaced their American counterparts.
距那家玻璃厂8小时车程的地方是一大片俗称“富士康城”(Foxconn City)的建筑，iPhone的装配线就在那里。在苹果管理层看来，富士康城进一步证明了一个事实：中国有能力提供比美国同行更好的工人，勤勉的态度也超过美国。
That’s because nothing like Foxconn City exists in the United States.
原因在于，美国根本找不出像富士康城这样的东西。
The facility has 230,000 employees, many working six days a week, often spending up to 12 hours a day at the plant. Over a quarter of Foxconn’s work force lives in company barracks and many workers earn less than $17 a day. When one Apple executive arrived during a shift change, his car was stuck in a river of employees streaming past. “The scale is unimaginable,” he said.
这片厂区有23万员工，其中许多人都是每周工作6天，一天的工作时间经常会达到12小时。超过四分之一的富士康员工住在公司的宿舍里，许多工人的日薪都不到17美元。一名苹果管理人员曾经在换班的时候进入工厂，他的轿车卡在了川流的员工之中。“这样的规模真是难以想象，”他说。
Foxconn employs nearly 300 guards to direct foot traffic so workers are not crushed in doorway bottlenecks. The facility’s central kitchen cooks an average of three tons of pork and 13 tons of rice a day. While factories are spotless, the air inside nearby teahouses is hazy with the smoke and stench of cigarettes.
富士康雇了将近300名保安来引导步行的人流，免得工人堵在门口的狭窄区域。厂区的主食堂平均每天消耗3吨猪肉和13吨大米。厂房虽然一尘不染，附近的茶馆里却弥漫着烟雾和臭烘烘的烟草味道。
Foxconn Technology has dozens of facilities in Asia and Eastern Europe, and in Mexico and Brazil, and it assembles an estimated 40 percent of the world’s consumer electronics for customers like Amazon, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Motorola, Nintendo, Nokia, Samsung and Sony.
富士康科技公司(Foxconn Technology)在亚洲、东欧、墨西哥和巴西拥有数十家工厂，组装的电子消费品估计占世界总量的40%，客户都是亚马逊(Amazon)、戴尔(Dell)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、摩托罗拉(Motorola)、任天堂(Nintendo)、诺基亚(Nokia)、三星(Samsung)和索尼(Sony)之类的公司。
“They could hire 3,000 people overnight,” said Jennifer Rigoni, who was Apple’s worldwide supply demand manager until 2010, but declined to discuss specifics of her work. “What U.S. plant can find 3,000 people overnight and convince them to live in dorms?”
詹妮弗·瑞格尼(Jennifer Rigoni)担任苹果公司全球供需经理至2010年，但却拒绝谈论自己的工作细节。她说，“他们可以在一夜之间雇来三千人。哪家美国工厂能在一夜之间雇来三千人、说服他们住进宿舍呢？”
In mid-2007, after a month of experimentation, Apple’s engineers finally perfected a method for cutting strengthened glass so it could be used in the iPhone’s screen. The first truckloads of cut glass arrived at Foxconn City in the dead of night, according to the former Apple executive. That’s when managers woke thousands of workers, who crawled into their uniforms — white and black shirts for men, red for women — and quickly lined up to assemble, by hand, the phones. Within three months, Apple had sold one million iPhones. Since then, Foxconn has assembled over 200 million more.
2007年中期，做了一个月的实验之后，苹果公司的技师最终拿出了一个完善的办法，可以把强化玻璃板切割成适合iPhone的屏幕。据一名前苹果公司管理人员所说，夜深人静的时候，运送第一批玻璃屏幕的卡车才抵达富士康城。各位工头立刻叫醒了数千名工人，工人手忙脚乱地穿上制服——男制服是黑白衬衫，女制服则是红色——迅速排成队伍，开始手工组装手机。不到三个月，苹果公司就卖出了100万部iPhone。那之后，富士康又组装了超过2亿部iPhone。
Foxconn, in statements, declined to speak about specific clients.
富士康在声明当中拒绝对具体的客户发表意见。
“Any worker recruited by our firm is covered by a clear contract outlining terms and conditions and by Chinese government law that protects their rights,” the company wrote. Foxconn “takes our responsibility to our employees very seriously and we work hard to give our more than one million employees a safe and positive environment.”
该公司在书面声明当中宣称，“本公司招募的所有员工都签有列明各种条款及工作条件的合同，受到中国劳动法的保护。”富士康“认真履行对员工的责任，努力为百万有余的员工提供安全有益的工作环境”。
The company disputed some details of the former Apple executive’s account, and wrote that a midnight shift, such as the one described, was impossible “because we have strict regulations regarding the working hours of our employees based on their designated shifts, and every employee has computerized timecards that would bar them from working at any facility at a time outside of their approved shift.” The company said that all shifts began at either 7 a.m. or 7 p.m., and that employees receive at least 12 hours’ notice of any schedule changes.
富士康对那名前苹果管理人员讲述的一些细节提出了异议，并在书面声明当中指出，所谓的午夜班根本不可能存在，“因为我们为不同班次员工的工作时间制定了严格的规章，所有的员工都有电子计时卡，根本不可能在规定班次之外的时间进厂工作。”公司还说，所有班次要么是从早上7点开始，要么就是从晚上7 点开始，如果有所变更，公司会提前至少12个小时通知员工。
Foxconn employees, in interviews, have challenged those assertions.
接受采访的时候，富士康的员工对公司的说法提出了质疑。
Another critical advantage for Apple was that China provided engineers at a scale the United States could not match. Apple’s executives had estimated that about 8,700 industrial engineers were needed to oversee and guide the 200,000 assembly-line workers eventually involved in manufacturing iPhones. The company’s analysts had forecast it would take as long as nine months to find that many qualified engineers in the United States.
对苹果公司来说，另一个至关重要的有利条件是中国可以提供大量技师，数目令美国望尘莫及。按照苹果管理层之前的估计，生产iPhone最终要用到20万名装配线工人，需要大约8700名工业技师来承担监督和指导的职责。苹果公司的分析师预计，要想在美国找到这么多的合格技师，所需时间将会长达9个月。
In China, it took 15 days.
到了中国，这件事情只花了15天的时间。
Companies like Apple “say the challenge in setting up U.S. plants is finding a technical work force,” said Martin Schmidt, associate provost at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In particular, companies say they need engineers with more than high school, but not necessarily a bachelor’s degree. Americans at that skill level are hard to find, executives contend. “They’re good jobs, but the country doesn’t have enough to feed the demand,” Mr. Schmidt said.
麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)副教务长马丁·施密特(Martin Schmidt)说，苹果之类的公司“宣称，在美国建厂的难点在于寻找技术工人”。这些公司还说，具体说来，他们需要的技师应该受过超过高中生的教育，但又不是非得拥有学士学位。管理人员们坚称，这种层次的技师在美国非常难找。施密特先生说，“这样的工作相当不错，美国却找不出足够的人来填补这些空缺。”
Some aspects of the iPhone are uniquely American. The device’s software, for instance, and its innovative marketing campaigns were largely created in the United States. Apple recently built a $500 million data center in North Carolina. Crucial semiconductors inside the iPhone 4 and 4S are manufactured in an Austin, Tex., factory by Samsung, of South Korea.
iPhone具有一些美国独有的特色，软件就是其中一例，与此同时，它新颖的营销手段也基本上源自美国。不久之前，苹果公司在北卡罗莱纳建立了一个耗资5亿美元的数据中心。用于iPhone 4和4S的关键性半导体由韩国的三星公司提供，产地则是位于德克萨斯州奥斯丁(Austin)的一家工厂。
But even those facilities are not enormous sources of jobs. Apple’s North Carolina center, for instance, has only 100 full-time employees. The Samsung plant has an estimated 2,400 workers.
但是，以上这些设施并不能提供大量的工作机会。举例来说，苹果的北卡罗莱纳中心只有100名全职员工。据估计，三星的奥斯丁工厂也只有2400名工人。
“If you scale up from selling one million phones to 30 million phones, you don’t really need more programmers,” said Jean-Louis Gassée, who oversaw product development and marketing for Apple until he left in 1990. “All these new companies — Facebook, Google, Twitter — benefit from this. They grow, but they don’t really need to hire much.”
让-路易斯·卡西(Jean-Louis Gassée)曾经负责苹果公司的产品开发和营销，于1990年去职。他说，“即便手机销量从100万部增加到了3000万部，你也用不着更多的程序员。包括Facebook、谷歌和推特(Twitter)在内，所有的新公司都尝到了这种甜头。他们不断成长，但却不需要雇用太多的人。”
It is hard to estimate how much more it would cost to build iPhones in the United States. However, various academics and manufacturing analysts estimate that because labor is such a small part of technology manufacturing, paying American wages would add up to $65 to each iPhone’s expense. Since Apple’s profits are often hundreds of dollars per phone, building domestically, in theory, would still give the company a healthy reward.
在美国生产iPhone会增加多少成本，相关的数字很难估算。不过，按照多位学者和制造业分析师的估计，由于人力成本对高科技制造业来说微不足道，支付美国标准的薪金会让每部iPhone的成本增加至多65美元。鉴于苹果公司从每部手机收获的利润往往可以达到数百美元，从理论上说，即便在美国生产手机，苹果公司依然可以得到相当不错的收益。
But such calculations are, in many respects, meaningless because building the iPhone in the United States would demand much more than hiring Americans — it would require transforming the national and global economies. Apple executives believe there simply aren’t enough American workers with the skills the company needs or factories with sufficient speed and flexibility. Other companies that work with Apple, like Corning, also say they must go abroad.
然而，这样的分析从很多方面来说都没有什么意义，原因在于，在美国生产手机的条件远不只是雇用美国人那么简单，还意味着要对美国乃至全球经济进行调整。苹果管理层认为，美国就是没有那么多符合公司需要的工人，也没有速度够快、灵活性够大的工厂。康宁公司之类的苹果合作方也宣称，他们必须走向海外。
Manufacturing glass for the iPhone revived a Corning factory in Kentucky, and today, much of the glass in iPhones is still made there. After the iPhone became a success, Corning received a flood of orders from other companies hoping to imitate Apple’s designs. Its strengthened glass sales have grown to more than $700 million a year, and it has hired or continued employing about 1,000 Americans to support the emerging market.
苹果公司的玻璃订单让康宁公司设在肯塔基州的一家工厂获得了新生，时至今日，用于iPhone的大部分玻璃仍然产于此地。iPhone大获成功之后，康宁公司从急欲模仿苹果设计的各家公司那里接到了一大堆订单。它的强化玻璃年销售额增长到了7亿美元以上。为了满足新起的市场需求，公司雇用了或说是保留了大约1千名美国员工。
But as that market has expanded, the bulk of Corning’s strengthened glass manufacturing has occurred at plants in Japan and Taiwan.
不过，随着市场的扩张，康宁公司已经把大部分的强化玻璃生产任务转到了位于日本和台湾的工厂。
“Our customers are in Taiwan, Korea, Japan and China,” said James B. Flaws, Corning’s vice chairman and chief financial officer. “We could make the glass here, and then ship it by boat, but that takes 35 days. Or, we could ship it by air, but that’s 10 times as expensive. So we build our glass factories next door to assembly factories, and those are overseas.”
康宁公司副主席兼首席财务官詹姆斯·B·弗罗斯(James B. Flaws)说，“我们的客户来自台湾、韩国、日本和中国大陆。我们固然可以在美国生产玻璃，然后再用船运过去，航程却长达35天。我们也可以改用空运，可空运的费用是海运的10倍。既然如此，我们就把玻璃厂开在了那些组装厂的隔壁，那些组装厂都在国外。”
Corning was founded in America 161 years ago and its headquarters are still in upstate New York. Theoretically, the company could manufacture all its glass domestically. But it would “require a total overhaul in how the industry is structured,” Mr. Flaws said. “The consumer electronics business has become an Asian business. As an American, I worry about that, but there’s nothing I can do to stop it. Asia has become what the U.S. was for the last 40 years.”
161年前，康宁公司在美国诞生，时至今日，它的总部依然位于纽约州北部。理论上说，公司可以把所有的玻璃生产任务放在国内。但是，弗罗斯先生说，这就“需要对整个行业的结构来一次全面调整。电子消费品行业已经变成了亚洲的独门生意。身为美国人，我对这种状况感到担心，可我没办法阻止这样的势头。亚洲已经取代了美国在过去40年当中的地位。”
Middle-Class Jobs Fade
中产阶级工作萎缩
The first time Eric Saragoza stepped into Apple’s manufacturing plant in Elk Grove, Calif., he felt as if he were entering an engineering wonderland.
第一次踏进加州埃克格鲁夫那家苹果工厂的时候，埃里克·萨拉戈萨(Eric Saragoza)恍然觉得，自己走进了一处工程技术的仙境。
It was 1995, and the facility near Sacramento employed more than 1,500 workers. It was a kaleidoscope of robotic arms, conveyor belts ferrying circuit boards and, eventually, candy-colored iMacs in various stages of assembly. Mr. Saragoza, an engineer, quickly moved up the plant’s ranks and joined an elite diagnostic team. His salary climbed to $50,000. He and his wife had three children. They bought a home with a pool.
当时是1995年，这家邻近萨克拉门托(Sacramento)的工厂雇用了超过1500名工人。厂房里面就像是一个万花筒，有各式各样的机械手，有承载着各种电路板的传送带，最后还有处于各个装配流程的花花绿绿的苹果电脑。身为技师的萨拉戈萨先生在厂里的地位迅速攀升，很快就进入了负责诊断产品问题的精英团队，薪水也增加到了5万美元。他和妻子生了三个孩子，还买了一幢带游泳池的房子。
“It felt like, finally, school was paying off,” he said. “I knew the world needed people who can build things.”
他说，“当时的感觉就是，我的学总算是没有白上。我早就知道，这个世界需要会做东西的人。”
At the same time, however, the electronics industry was changing, and Apple — with products that were declining in popularity — was struggling to remake itself. One focus was improving manufacturing. A few years after Mr. Saragoza started his job, his bosses explained how the California plant stacked up against overseas factories: the cost, excluding the materials, of building a $1,500 computer in Elk Grove was $22 a machine. In Singapore, it was $6. In Taiwan, $4.85. Wages weren’t the major reason for the disparities. Rather it was costs like inventory and how long it took workers to finish a task.
与此同时，电子产业却起了变化。由于产品销势每况愈下，苹果公司正在奋力进行自我改造。萨拉戈萨先生入职几年之后，他的老板谈起了加州工厂相对于海外工厂的劣势：刨去原材料不算，在埃克格鲁夫生产一台售价1500美元的电脑需要22美元的成本，在新加坡生产的成本是6美元，台湾则是4.85美元。造成差距的主要原因并不是工资，而是仓储之类的成本，以及工人完成活计的速度。
“We were told we would have to do 12-hour days, and come in on Saturdays,” Mr. Saragoza said. “I had a family. I wanted to see my kids play soccer.”
萨拉戈萨先生说，“老板告诉我们，我们必须每天工作12个小时，星期六也得上班。可我是个有家有口的人，还想看我的孩子们踢足球呢。”
Modernization has always caused some kinds of jobs to change or disappear. As the American economy transitioned from agriculture to manufacturing and then to other industries, farmers became steelworkers, and then salesmen and middle managers. These shifts have carried many economic benefits, and in general, with each progression, even unskilled workers received better wages and greater chances at upward mobility.
现代化的进程总是会让一些工作变化或者消失。美国经济先是从农业转型为制造业，然后又转入其他产业，在此期间，农夫变成了钢铁工人，跟着又变成了推销员或者中层管理人员。这样的转变带来了许多经济效益，总体说来，即便是没有技术的工人也可以通过每一次的转变获得更高的工资，获得更大的上升机会。
But in the last two decades, something more fundamental has changed, economists say. Midwage jobs started disappearing. Particularly among Americans without college degrees, today’s new jobs are disproportionately in service occupations — at restaurants or call centers, or as hospital attendants or temporary workers — that offer fewer opportunities for reaching the middle class.
然而，经济学家们指出，过去20年当中，某种更为根本的东西发生了改变。中等收入的工作开始消失。今天的新工作过多地集中于餐馆职员、接线员、医院护理人员和临时杂工之类的服务性岗位，这些岗位提供不了多少升入中产阶级的机会。对于没有大学学位的美国人来说，情况尤其如此。
Even Mr. Saragoza, with his college degree, was vulnerable to these trends. First, some of Elk Grove’s routine tasks were sent overseas. Mr. Saragoza didn’t mind. Then the robotics that made Apple a futuristic playground allowed executives to replace workers with machines. Some diagnostic engineering went to Singapore. Middle managers who oversaw the plant’s inventory were laid off because, suddenly, a few people with Internet connections were all that were needed.
即便是拥有大学学位的萨拉戈萨先生也抵挡不住这样的势头。刚开始，公司把埃克格鲁夫工厂的一些日常工作交到了海外，萨拉戈萨先生没有在意。接下来，人工智能设备把苹果公司变成了一个未来主义风格的游乐场，也给公司管理层提供了用机器取代工人的机会。公司把一部分的问题诊断工作交给了新加坡。管理工厂库存的中层纷纷下岗，原因在于，公司突然发现，有那么几个连着网的人就够用了。
Mr. Saragoza was too expensive for an unskilled position. He was also insufficiently credentialed for upper management. He was called into a small office in 2002 after a night shift, laid off and then escorted from the plant. He taught high school for a while, and then tried a return to technology. But Apple, which had helped anoint the region as “Silicon Valley North,” had by then converted much of the Elk Grove plant into an AppleCare call center, where new employees often earn $12 an hour.
萨拉戈萨先生身价太高，没法安排不需要技术的工作。与此同时，他又不具备担任高层管理人员的资质。2002年的一次夜班之后，上头把他叫进一间小办公室，辞退了他，然后就让人送他出厂。他教了一阵高中，跟着又尝试重返科技行业。然而，到那个时候，曾经帮助该地区赢得“北方硅谷”美名的苹果公司已经把埃克格鲁夫工厂的大部分改造成了一个售后服务电话中心，新员工的时薪通常只有12美元。
There were employment prospects in Silicon Valley, but none of them panned out. “What they really want are 30-year-olds without children,” said Mr. Saragoza, who today is 48, and whose family now includes five of his own.
硅谷倒是有工作机会，只可惜都没有变成现实。萨拉戈萨先生现年48岁，家里已经有了5个孩子。他说，“他们真正想要的是30来岁、没有孩子的人。”
After a few months of looking for work, he started feeling desperate. Even teaching jobs had dried up. So he took a position with an electronics temp agency that had been hired by Apple to check returned iPhones and iPads before they were sent back to customers. Every day, Mr. Saragoza would drive to the building where he had once worked as an engineer, and for $10 an hour with no benefits, wipe thousands of glass screens and test audio ports by plugging in headphones.
找了几个月工作之后，他产生了绝望的感觉。就连教书的工作也已经无处寻觅了。于是乎，他在一家电子行业临时工介绍所找了个工作，苹果公司雇那家介绍所来检修退回的iPhone和iPad，然后再把机器还给顾客。萨拉戈萨先生每天都要开车去他曾经担任技师的那座大楼，在那里擦洗数以千计的玻璃屏幕、插入耳机以测试音频接口，时薪10美元，没有福利。
Paydays for Apple
苹果公司的发财日子
As Apple’s overseas operations and sales have expanded, its top employees have thrived. Last fiscal year, Apple’s revenue topped $108 billion, a sum larger than the combined state budgets of Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Since 2005, when the company’s stock split, share prices have risen from about $45 to more than $427.
苹果公司的海外业务及销量膨胀之际，公司高层也大发其财。上一个财政年度，苹果公司的收入高达1080亿美元，超过密歇根、新泽西和马萨诸塞三州预算的总和。2005年拆分股份之后，苹果的股价已经从45美元左右涨到了427美元以上。
Some of that wealth has gone to shareholders. Apple is among the most widely held stocks, and the rising share price has benefited millions of individual investors, 401(k)’s and pension plans. The bounty has also enriched Apple workers. Last fiscal year, in addition to their salaries, Apple’s employees and directors received stock worth $2 billion and exercised or vested stock and options worth an added $1.4 billion.
一部分的财富落到了股东手里。苹果股票是股东最分散的股票之一，高涨的股价让数百万个人投资者、401(k)基金和养老基金从中受益，也让苹果的工人发财致富。上一个财政年度，除了工资之外，苹果的员工和经理还得到了总值超过20亿美元的股票，兑现或生效的股票及期权总值也达到了14亿美元。
The biggest rewards, however, have often gone to Apple’s top employees. Mr. Cook, Apple’s chief, last year received stock grants — which vest over a 10-year period — that, at today’s share price, would be worth $427 million, and his salary was raised to $1.4 million. In 2010, Mr. Cook’s compensation package was valued at $59 million, according to Apple’s security filings.
不过，最大的受益者通常都是苹果公司的高层管理人员。去年，苹果首席执行官库克先生获得了将在10年之内逐步生效的大量赠与股，按现在的股价计算，这些股票的价值是4.27亿美元。除此之外，他的薪水也涨到了140万美元。苹果公司的证券披露材料显示，2010年，库克先生的薪酬包总值为5900万美元。
A person close to Apple argued that the compensation received by Apple’s employees was fair, in part because the company had brought so much value to the nation and world. As the company has grown, it has expanded its domestic work force, including manufacturing jobs. Last year, Apple’s American work force grew by 8,000 people.
一名与苹果公司关联紧密的人士宣称，苹果员工的薪酬是合理的，部分是因为苹果公司为美国乃至全世界创造了如此庞大的价值。随着业务的发展，公司已经扩大了国内员工的规模，包括从事制造业的员工。去年，苹果公司在美国的雇员增加了八千人。
While other companies have sent call centers abroad, Apple has kept its centers in the United States. One source estimated that sales of Apple’s products have caused other companies to hire tens of thousands of Americans. FedEx and United Parcel Service, for instance, both say they have created American jobs because of the volume of Apple’s shipments, though neither would provide specific figures without permission from Apple, which the company declined to provide.
其他公司纷纷将电话中心迁往海外，苹果公司却把自己的电话中心留在了美国。某消息来源估计，苹果产品的销售已经促使其他公司雇用了数以万计的美国人。举例来说，联邦快递(FedEx)和UPS宣称，由于苹果产品带来的巨大运输量，他们都为美国人提供了更多的工作机会。不过，两家公司都不愿意提供具体的数字，说是需要得到苹果公司的许可，与此同时，苹果公司拒绝提供这样的许可。
“We shouldn’t be criticized for using Chinese workers,” a current Apple executive said. “The U.S. has stopped producing people with the skills we need.”
苹果公司的一名现职管理人员说，“我们雇用中国工人的做法无可指责，因为美国已经不能提供我们需要的人才了。”
What’s more, Apple sources say the company has created plenty of good American jobs inside its retail stores and among entrepreneurs selling iPhone and iPad applications.
除此之外，苹果方面的消息来源说，公司已经为美国人创造了大量的好工作，有的岗位是在苹果的零售店里，还有的是在销售iPhone和iPad应用软件的商家那里。
After two months of testing iPads, Mr. Saragoza quit. The pay was so low that he was better off, he figured, spending those hours applying for other jobs. On a recent October evening, while Mr. Saragoza sat at his MacBook and submitted another round of résumés online, halfway around the world a woman arrived at her office. The worker, Lina Lin, is a project manager in Shenzhen, China, at PCH International, which contracts with Apple and other electronics companies to coordinate production of accessories, like the cases that protect the iPad’s glass screens. She is not an Apple employee. But Mrs. Lin is integral to Apple’s ability to deliver its products.
做了两个月iPad测试工作之后，萨拉戈萨先生辞了职。按他的盘算，与其忍受这么低的薪水，还不如把时间用来寻找别的工作。不久之前的一个十月夜晚，萨拉戈萨先生坐在自己的苹果笔记本跟前，又在网上发了一轮简历。与此同时，半个地球之外，一位女士走进了自己的办公室。这位女士名叫林丽娜（音译），是PCH国际公司深圳分公司的项目经理，该公司与苹果等电子公司签有合约，负责协调配件生产，比如iPad玻璃屏幕的保护套。林女士不是苹果雇员，但却为苹果的生产能力发挥着不可或缺的作用。
Mrs. Lin earns a bit less than what Mr. Saragoza was paid by Apple. She speaks fluent English, learned from watching television and in a Chinese university. She and her husband put a quarter of their salaries in the bank every month. They live in a 1,080-square-foot apartment, which they share with their in-laws and son.
林女士的工资略少于萨拉戈萨先生受雇于苹果时的工资。通过看电视和中国一所大学的教育，她学会了一口流利的英语。每个月，她和丈夫都会把四分之一的工资存入银行。夫妻俩住在一套108平方米的公寓里，同住的还有儿子和姻亲。
“There are lots of jobs,” Mrs. Lin said. “Especially in Shenzhen.”
“工作机会多得很，”林女士说，“尤其是在深圳。”
Innovation’s Losers
创新浪潮的输家
Toward the end of Mr. Obama’s dinner last year with Mr. Jobs and other Silicon Valley executives, as everyone stood to leave, a crowd of photo seekers formed around the president. A slightly smaller scrum gathered around Mr. Jobs. Rumors had spread that his illness had worsened, and some hoped for a photograph with him, perhaps for the last time.
去年，奥巴马先生与乔布斯先生及其他硅谷高管的那场晚宴临近尾声的时候，所有人都起身准备离开。一群想要合影的人围在了总统身边，乔布斯先生身边也围起了一群规模略小的人。关于他病情恶化的流言已经传开，有些人希望跟他合个影，没准儿是最后一次了呢。
Eventually, the orbits of the men overlapped. “I’m not worried about the country’s long-term future,” Mr. Jobs told Mr. Obama, according to one observer. “This country is insanely great. What I’m worried about is that we don’t talk enough about solutions.”
到最后，两个人走到了一起。按照一名旁观者的叙述，乔布斯先生对奥巴马先生说，“我并不为国家的长远前途担心。这个国家棒极了。我只是担心，我们关于解决方案的探讨不够彻底。”
At dinner, for instance, the executives had suggested that the government should reform visa programs to help companies hire foreign engineers. Some had urged the president to give companies a “tax holiday” so they could bring back overseas profits which, they argued, would be used to create work. Mr. Jobs even suggested it might be possible, someday, to locate some of Apple’s skilled manufacturing in the United States if the government helped train more American engineers.
举例来说，晚宴过程之中，各位高管曾经建议政府修改签证政策，为各家公司雇请外国技师打开方便之门。有些人敦促总统给各家公司一个“税负假期”，好让他们把海外利润转回国内，同时还说，他们会用这些利润来创造工作机会。乔布斯先生甚至提出，如果政府愿意协助培训美国技师的话，有朝一日，苹果兴许会把一部分高技能制造业务迁回美国。
Economists debate the usefulness of those and other efforts, and note that a struggling economy is sometimes transformed by unexpected developments. The last time analysts wrung their hands about prolonged American unemployment, for instance, in the early 1980s, the Internet hardly existed. Few at the time would have guessed that a degree in graphic design was rapidly becoming a smart bet, while studying telephone repair a dead end.
经济学家们就以上及其他一些措施的效用争论不休，同时指出，有些时候，意料之外的发展会为步履艰难的经济带来转机。举例来说，分析师们上一次为美国失业率高居不下而揪心的情形出现在20世纪80年代早期，那个时候，互联网几乎还不存在。当时很少有人能够想到，平面设计学位会迅速成为一个精明的赌注，与此同时，电话修理却会变成一个没有前途的专业。
What remains unknown, however, is whether the United States will be able to leverage tomorrow’s innovations into millions of jobs.
不过，美国能不能把未来的技术革新变成千百万个工作机会，眼下还是个未知之数。
In the last decade, technological leaps in solar and wind energy, semiconductor fabrication and display technologies have created thousands of jobs. But while many of those industries started in America, much of the employment has occurred abroad. Companies have closed major facilities in the United States to reopen in China. By way of explanation, executives say they are competing with Apple for shareholders. If they cannot rival Apple’s growth and profit margins, they won’t survive.
过去10年当中，太阳能、风能、半导体制造以及显示技术方面的技术飞跃已经带来了数以千计的工作机会。这类产业有许多都是发源于美国，由此而来的大部分工作机会却落到了国外。各家公司纷纷关闭在美国的大型设施，为的是在中国重新开张。公司管理层的说辞是，他们这么做，是为了跟苹果争夺投资者。要是增长速度和利润率赶不上苹果的话，他们就无法生存。
“New middle-class jobs will eventually emerge,” said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard economist. “But will someone in his 40s have the skills for them? Or will he be bypassed for a new graduate and never find his way back into the middle class?”
哈佛大学的经济学家劳伦斯·凯茨(Lawrence Katz)说，“新的中产阶级工作机会终将出现。可是，那些40多岁的人具备赢得机会的技能吗？他们会不会被刚刚毕业的大学生抢在头里、再也无法回到中产阶级的行列呢？”
The pace of innovation, say executives from a variety of industries, has been quickened by businessmen like Mr. Jobs. G.M. went as long as half a decade between major automobile redesigns. Apple, by comparison, has released five iPhones in four years, doubling the devices’ speed and memory while dropping the price that some consumers pay.
来自多个产业的管理人员纷纷表示，乔布斯先生之类的商人加快了创新的速度。在以前，通用公司要等长达五年的时间才会对车型进行大幅度修改。反观苹果公司，它在4年之内就推出了5款iPhone，手机的速度和内存都翻了倍，针对部分用户的售价却有所降低。
Before Mr. Obama and Mr. Jobs said goodbye, the Apple executive pulled an iPhone from his pocket to show off a new application — a driving game — with incredibly detailed graphics. The device reflected the soft glow of the room’s lights. The other executives, whose combined worth exceeded $69 billion, jostled for position to glance over his shoulder. The game, everyone agreed, was wonderful.
跟奥巴马先生道别之前，乔布斯先生从兜里掏出了一部iPhone，为的是炫耀一款影像效果无比精细的应用软件——一款驾驶游戏。手机反射着房间里的柔和光线，身价总和超过690亿美元的其他高管争先恐后地隔着他的肩膀观赏游戏画面。所有的人众口一词，这款游戏妙不可言。
There wasn’t even a tiny scratch on the screen.
手机屏幕之上，不见丝毫划痕。
2024年12月12日
With students at many colleges wrapping up final exams this week and preparing for their winter break, a number of schools, including Harvard, U.S.C. and Cornell, are advising their international students to return to campus before President-elect Donald J. Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.
本周，随着许多大学生正在结束期末考试，准备迎接寒假，包括哈佛大学、南加州大学和康奈尔大学在内的多所高校建议国际学生在1月20日候任总统特朗普就职典礼前返回校园。
During his last administration, Mr. Trump imposed restrictions on entry to the United States from seven majority-Muslim countries, a policy that stranded thousands of students who were abroad at the time. Later in his term, Mr. Trump added more countries to the restricted travel list. And he has spoken of wanting to reimpose those restrictions once he is back in the White House.
特朗普在上届政府任期内曾对七个穆斯林占多数的国家实施入境限制，导致当时在国外的数千名学生滞留。在其任期后段，特朗普又将更多国家列入限制旅行名单。他曾表示，一旦重返白宫，他就会重新实施这些限制。
“A travel ban is likely to go into effect soon after inauguration,” Cornell’s Office of Global Learning warned students on its website late last month, advising them to be back in the United States before the start of spring-semester classes on Jan. 21. “The ban is likely to include citizens of the countries targeted in the first Trump administration: Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Myanmar, Sudan, Tanzania, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, and Somalia. New countries could be added to this list, particularly China and India.”
康奈尔大学全球学习办公室于上月末在其网站上警告学生：“就职典礼后不久可能会生效一份旅行禁令”，建议他们在1月21日春季学期开学前返回美国。“禁令可能包括特朗普首届政府所针对的国家的公民：吉尔吉斯斯坦、尼日利亚、缅甸、苏丹、坦桑尼亚、伊朗、利比亚、朝鲜、叙利亚、委内瑞拉、也门和索马里。这个名单上还可能增加新的国家，特别是中国和印度。”
Colleges are also warning all students to prepare for possible delays at the border and in the processing of paperwork.
学校还提醒所有学生，要做好出入境和文件处理可能延迟的准备。
“Budget time ahead of the semester start, prior to the January Martin Luther King holiday,” Harvard advised on its website for international students who have concerns.
“在学期开始前，在1月马丁·路德·金假期之前，安排好时间，”哈佛大学在其网站上建议，供有顾虑的国际学生参考。
The University of Massachusetts Amherst, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Pennsylvania and Wesleyan University have issued comparable advisories and guidance. The advice is precautionary in nature, since the policies of the new administration remain uncertain.
马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校、麻省理工学院、宾夕法尼亚大学和卫斯理大学也发布了类似的建议和指导。由于新政府的政策尚不确定，因此这些建议属于预防性质。
Mr. Trump has said that he wanted to bring back or strengthen some of the travel restrictions he imposed in his first term.
特朗普曾表示，他希望恢复或加强他在第一任期内实施的一些旅行限制。
At an event in September with a Republican donor, Miriam Adelson, Mr. Trump said he would “seal our border and bring back the travel ban,” apparently referring to his restrictions on travel from some majority-Muslim countries. He also said that he would “ban refugee resettlement from terror-infested areas like the Gaza Strip.”
在9月与共和党捐助者米里亚姆·阿德尔森共同参与的一次活动中，特朗普表示将“封锁边境并恢复旅行禁令”，这显然是指他对来自一些穆斯林占多数国家的旅行限制。他还表示，他将“禁止安置来自加沙地带等恐怖活动猖獗地区的难民”。
More than 1.1 million students from outside the United States were enrolled in American colleges and universities in the 2023-24 academic year, according to Open Doors, a data project partially funded by the U.S. State Department.
根据美国国务院部分资助的数据项目“门户开放”，2023-24学年，美国高校共招收了超过110万名来自美国以外的学生。
India was the most common place of origin for international students last year, followed by China; together, they accounted for more than half of all international students in the country. South Korea ranked third.
去年，印度是国际学生最大的来源地，其次是中国，两国学生占美国国际学生总数的一半以上。韩国排名第三。
2024年12月12日
The Biden administration is making a final push to reinforce the communication channels it established between the United States and China before the relationship between the world’s largest economies potentially faces fresh upheaval when President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office next month.
候任总统特朗普于下月上任后，美中这两个世界上最大的经济体之间的关系可能面临新变局，在此之前，拜登政府正在做最后的努力，加强它在两国之间建立的沟通渠道。
A team of senior Treasury Department officials will travel to Nanjing, China, this week for a final meeting of the U.S.-China financial working group. A separate group of Treasury officials will convene with their Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of a Group of 20 gathering in South Africa this week for a meeting of the bilateral economic working group. The working groups were formed in 2023 as a way to prevent tension between the U.S. and China from devolving into economic warfare.
美国财政部的一个高级官员团队将于本周前往中国南京，参加美中金融工作组的最后一次会议。财政部另一组官员将在本周南非召开的20国集团会议间隙，与中国同级官员举行双边经济工作组会议。这些工作组是2023年建立的，目的是防止美中紧张关系演变为经济战。
The officials are expected to discuss a familiar range of issues that have been on the table since the new structure for economic dialogue was created last year. The United States is expected to raise its continued concerns about China’s excess production of green energy technology, which is flooding global markets. Treasury officials are also expected to raise issues with China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals and the support that Chinese firms have been providing to Russia in its war against Ukraine.
预计官员们将讨论他们已经熟悉的一系列问题，自从新的经济对话结构于去年建立以来，这些问题就一直摆在桌面上。预计美国将对中国生产过剩的绿色能源技术持续表示关切，这些技术正在大量涌入全球市场。预计美国财政部官员还将对中国最近限制关键矿产出口的做法、以及中国公司在俄乌战争中持续向俄罗斯提供物资等问题表示关切。
“The United States and China are the two largest economies on the globe, and the American people expect that we should be able to communicate directly with Chinese officials on both areas where we agree and especially on areas where we don’t,” said Jay Shambaugh, the Treasury Department’s under secretary for international affairs, who will be participating in the meetings.
“美国和中国是全球最大的两个经济体，美国人民期待我们直接与中国官员沟通，无论是在我们意见一致的领域，还是在我们意见不一的领域，尤其是在意见不一的领域，”即将参加这些会议的美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长杰伊·尚博说。
Despite the warmer tone between the two countries, most of the Biden administration’s warnings about China flooding global markets with cheap solar panels and electric vehicles have gone unheeded. There has also been no indication that Chinese firms have stopped helping Russia access the technology that it needs to restock its military. And the U.S. and China have continued to ratchet up protectionist measures.
尽管两国关系的基调有所缓和，但拜登政府对中国向全球市场倾销廉价太阳能电池板和电动汽车的警告并没有引起中国的重视。也没有迹象表明中国公司已停止帮助俄罗斯获取补充其军需的技术。美国和中国已继续加强各自的保护主义做法。
The Biden administration opted this year to maintain the tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports and announced new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and advanced batteries.
拜登政府今年决定维持特朗普政府对价值数十亿美元的中国进口产品征收的关税，并宣布对中国电动汽车、太阳能电池板、半导体、先进电池征收新关税。
This month, the United States unveiled broader restrictions on advanced technology that could be sent to China, to prevent it from developing its own advanced chips for military equipment and artificial intelligence.
本月，美国宣布对可能出口到中国的先进技术实施更广泛的限制，以防止中国用这些技术研发可用于军事装备和人工智能的先进芯片。
China responded last week with new restrictions of its own, banning the export of several rare minerals to the United States that are used to make valuable products, like weaponry and semiconductors.
中国上周以自己的新限制措施作为回应，禁止对美国出口几种用于制造武器和半导体等高价值产品的稀有矿物。
The escalations raise questions about what the new lines of communication have actually accomplished, but proponents of more dialogue argue that without them the economic relationship could be even worse.
贸易限制的升级令人们质疑新的沟通渠道究竟产生了什么实际效果，但支持更多对话的人认为，如果没有这些渠道，两国的经济关系可能会更糟。
“U.S. and Chinese financial officials are under no delusions that relations are fraught,” said Mark Sobel, a longtime former Treasury official. “But whether they like each other or not, they absolutely should be speaking with one another, if for no other reason than to avoid potentially harmful misunderstandings.”
“美国和中国的金融官员们不存在幻想，他们都知道关系紧张，”曾长期在财政部工作的前官员马克·索贝尔说。“但不管他们是否喜欢对方，他们都绝对应该相互交谈，即使没有其他原因，只是为了避免可能造成伤害的误解。”
Mr. Sobel, the U.S. chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, added: “With a new administration coming in, there is all the more reason to continue these important dialogues.”
官方货币和金融机构论坛的美方主席索贝尔补充道：“随着新政府即将上台，我们更有理由继续进行这些重要对话。”
Economic tension between the U.S. and China is expected to rise under Mr. Trump, who imposed tariffs on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports during his first term and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. This year, Mr. Trump said he would enact an extra 10 percent tariff on all products from China and he has suggested removing permanent normal trading relations with China, which would result in an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.
预计中美之间的经济紧张关系在特朗普领导下将加剧。特朗普在第一次执政期间对总值超过3000亿美元的中国进口产品加征了关税，并将中国正式列为汇率操纵国。特朗普已在今年表示，他会对所有来自中国的产品征收10%的额外关税，他还建议取消与中国的永久性正常贸易关系，这将导致美国立即提高对中国进口产品的关税。
The Biden administration hopes that the communication structure that it put in place will help stabilize the economic relationship with China if a new period of volatility emerges. The two economies account for over 40 percent of global gross domestic product and collaborate on policy matters including financial stability, debt relief for poor countries, sanctions and the governance of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
拜登政府希望，即使出现新的动荡时期，它所建立起来的沟通框架也有助于稳定与中国的经济关系。这两个经济体的国内国内生产总值加起来占全球的40%以上，两国也在金融稳定、减免穷国债务、制裁，以及世界银行和国际货币基金组织的治理等政策问题上开展合作。
However, Mr. Trump has demonstrated that he has a different view of economic diplomacy.
但特朗普已表明他对经济外交持不同看法。
During his first term, Mr. Trump did away with the “strategic economic dialogue” format that former Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had put in place during the George W. Bush administration. Instead, he imposed tariffs as a negotiating tool and dispatched his top economic advisers, Steven Mnuchin, who was his Treasury secretary, and Robert Lighthizer, his trade representative, to negotiate a trade agreement. The deal was signed in 2020 but the terms were not honored.
特朗普在第一次执政期间取消了两国之间的“战略经济对话”，该框架是亨利·保尔森在小布什政府担任财政部长时建立的。特朗普的做法是加征关税，将其作为谈判工具。他还派遣自己的高级经济顾问、财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦和贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽与中国谈成了一项贸易协定。这项协定于2020年签署，其条款没有得到执行。
Michael Pillsbury, who served as Mr. Trump’s top outside adviser on China during his first term, said that meetings among midlevel American and Chinese officials tend to be fruitless because they have little authority to make major policy decisions. He said that he expected that Mr. Trump would have little patience in such a format and that he instead would focus on direct talks with President Xi Jinping.
白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)曾在特朗普第一次执政期间担任中国事务高级外部顾问，他表示，美国和中国中层官员之间的会晤往往毫无成效，因为这些官员几乎无权做出重大政策决定。他说，他预计特朗普对这种对话框架没有多少耐心，他宁愿把注意力放在与中国国家主席习近平的直接对话上。
“It’s part of the American ‘feel good’ approach that just to have the meeting is a good thing,” Mr. Pillsbury said. “I think President Trump will return to the single-channel approach, that all main issues are between him and Xi Jinping.”
“认为只要有会谈就是好事，这只是美国人的一种‘感觉良好’，”白邦瑞说。“我认为特朗普将回到单一渠道的做法，让所有的主要问题都在他与习近平之间解决。”
AMY QIN
2024年12月11日
For the three decades after she became an American citizen, Annie Tan tried to stay out of the fray. Politics, she thought, was for politicians, not for “regular people” like her, a 71-year-old Chinese American immigrant from Taiwan living in Southern California.
在成为美国公民后的30年里，安妮·陈（音）一直试图置身事外。她认为，政治是政客的事，不适合像她这样的“普通人”。她是一位来自台湾、现居南加州的71岁华裔美国移民。
That all changed last year, when Ms. Tan was checking her bank statement and noticed something strange: two checks in her name that had been cashed for $949 each.
去年，一切都改变了，当时，陈女士在查看自己的银行对账单时发现了一些奇怪的事情：两张以她名义开出的支票被兑现，每张金额为949美元。
For Ms. Tan, a sales director at a local Chinese television station, the precise amounts were telling. In 2014, Californians voted to reduce penalties for some crimes, including forged checks where the amount did not exceed $950. This year, the law became a talking point for President-elect Donald J. Trump and other Republicans who argued that Democratic officials were out of touch with the electorate.
对于在当地一家中文电视台担任销售总监的陈女士来说，从这个有零有整的数字可以看出些端倪。2014年，加州人投票决定降低某些犯罪的处罚，包括伪造金额不超过950美元的支票。今年，这项法律成为当选总统特朗普和其他共和党人的一个重要议题，他们认为民主党官员脱离了选民的立场。
Ms. Tan was hardly a fan of Mr. Trump, who was accused of using racist rhetoric against Chinese Americans during the pandemic. But on crime, the Republican Party had a point, Ms. Tan thought. The same for transgender rights and affirmative action, she felt. The Democrats had gone too far.
对于被指在疫情期间对华裔美国人发表种族主义言论的特朗普，陈女士并无好感。但她认为，在犯罪问题上，共和党有其道理。她觉得，在跨性别权利和平权行动方面也是如此。民主党做得太过了。
So last month, for the first time in two decades, Ms. Tan cast a ballot for Republicans down the ticket.
因此，上个月，陈女士20年来第一次在选举中投票支持共和党。
“A lot of laws are not fair or good for us Chinese,” said Ms. Tan, who lives in Temple City, a suburb outside of Los Angeles with a predominantly Asian population.
“很多法律对我们华人来说并不公平，也不好，”居住在洛杉矶郊外天普市的陈女士说，那是亚裔人口占多数的一个地区。
Voters across the country shifted right this November, propelled by persistent frustrations about inflation, crime and immigration. But the drop in support for Democrats has been particularly noticeable among Chinese Americans, whose support for the Democratic presidential candidate fell to 53 percent this election from over 70 percent in 2020, according to the American Electorate Voter Poll, a large-scale national survey of voters.
今年11月，由于对通货膨胀、犯罪和移民问题的持续不满，全国各地的选民都向右转。但对民主党的支持率下降在华裔美国人中尤为明显，根据一项大规模全国性选民调查“美国选民投票”显示，他们对民主党总统候选人的支持率从2020年的70%以上下降到今年的53%。
加州亚凯迪雅的一个支持特朗普的标语，亚裔在这里占绝对多数。这里的选民向特朗普倾斜是总体右转趋势的一部分。
The shift was evident in heavily Chinese neighborhoods in New York City and San Francisco, but also in suburban regions like the San Gabriel Valley, several miles east of downtown Los Angeles.
这种转变在纽约市和旧金山的华人聚居区尤为明显，同时也出现在洛杉矶市中心以东几英里的圣盖博谷等郊区。
About 4.7 million people of Chinese descent live in the United States, and the population is still growing. As a group, most Chinese Americans, like Asian Americans in general, predominantly identify as Democratic. But first-generation Chinese Americans especially have been less committed to a particular party and have increasingly become concerned about crime and homelessness in American cities, which has punctured the sense of security they sought in the United States.
美国约有470万华裔，而且人口还在不断增长。作为一个群体，大多数华裔与亚裔美国人一样主要认同民主党。但第一代华裔美国人较特殊，没有那么忠于某个政党，他们越来越担心美国城市的犯罪和无家可归问题，这削弱了他们在美国寻求的安全感。
More socially conservative than their American-born children, many Chinese immigrants have also been turned off by Democratic support for affirmative action because they believe it does not reward merit. Few see relevance in the fight for transgender rights. They have a sense that the Democratic Party is the defender of minority groups — just not their own.
与他们在美国出生的孩子相比，许多华人移民在社会问题上更为保守，民主党支持的平权法案也让他们感到反感，因为他们认为这有违选贤举能的原则。很少有人认为争取跨性别者权利对他们自己有什么意义。他们认为民主党是少数群体的捍卫者——只是不包括他们。
Such views have often been distorted and widely circulated through online platforms like WeChat, X and YouTube. The result has been a frustration with the left, especially in Democratic-run coastal states that have large concentrations of Chinese Americans.
此类观点经常被扭曲，并通过微信、X和YouTube等网络平台广为传播。其结果是对左派的不满，尤其是在民主党控制的沿海州，这些州有大量华裔美国人。
“What we’re seeing, especially with Chinese Americans in some of the cities like San Francisco and New York, is a rejection of certain Democratic leaders that have taken what they see as a harder left position on issues like crime and safety, economy and education,” said James Zarsadiaz, a professor of history at the University of San Francisco who has written about Asian American conservatism.
“我们看到，尤其是对于旧金山和纽约等城市的华裔美国人，某些民主党领导人因在犯罪和安全、经济和教育等问题上采取华裔眼中更极端的左派立场而遭到否决，”曾就亚裔美国人保守主义撰文的旧金山大学历史学教授詹姆斯·扎萨迪亚兹表示。
In the San Gabriel Valley, Mr. Trump improved his performance this year from four years ago in nearly every Asian-majority city. A Chinese American Republican candidate in the 49th State Assembly District who focused heavily on public safety concerns won a higher share of the vote than any Republican challenger in the solidly Democratic district over the past decade. (The candidate, Long Liu, who goes by David, ultimately lost.)
在圣盖博谷，特朗普今年在几乎所有亚裔占多数的城市都取得了比四年前更好的成绩。在民主党稳稳控制的第49州议会选区，一位非常关注公共安全问题的华裔共和党候选人获得了10年来一个共和党挑战者在这里取得的最好成绩。（这位英文名David的候选人刘龙珠最终未能当选。）
It may seem counterintuitive to Democrats that a growing number of Chinese Americans would support Mr. Trump. During his first term, he called the coronavirus the “Chinese virus,” a label that fed xenophobia toward Asian Americans during the pandemic, and his administration took a confrontational stance against China. The Justice Department, under Mr. Trump, also ramped up a program that investigated and prosecuted Chinese American researchers and scientists as spies.
越来越多的华裔美国人支持特朗普，这对民主党人来说似乎有悖常理。在他的第一个任期内，他将冠状病毒称为“中国病毒”，这一标签在疫情期间助长了仇视亚裔美国人的情绪，他的政府对中国采取了对抗立场。在特朗普的领导下，司法部还加强了一项调查和起诉充当间谍的华裔美国研究人员和科学家的计划。
The effects of anti-Asian hate were deeply felt across California, including in the San Gabriel Valley, which has more than a dozen suburbs with an Asian-majority population. In 2021, reports of hate crimes against Asians jumped 107 percent from the year before, according to Rob Bonta, California’s attorney general.
反亚裔仇恨的影响在整个加州都十分深远，包括圣盖博谷，那里有十多个亚裔人口占多数的郊区。加州总检察长罗布·邦塔表示，2021年针对亚裔的仇恨犯罪报告比前一年增加了107%。
But not everyone blamed Mr. Trump’s rhetoric for precipitating the attacks. James Wang, 60, a first-generation Chinese American businessman from the city of San Gabriel, said that while his children did experience discrimination during the pandemic, racism already existed in America.
但并非所有人都将引发袭击事件归咎于特朗普的言论。60岁的詹姆斯·王是圣盖博市的第一代华裔商人，他说，虽然他的孩子们在疫情期间确实遭受了歧视，但种族主义在美国本来就存在。
“The United States is not a Chinese person’s country,” Mr. Wang said. “We are a minority here.”
“美国不是中国人的国家，”王先生说。“我们在这里是少数群体。”
Mr. Wang, a self-described independent who does not typically vote, was more concerned by crime and what he felt was America’s declining influence in the world. Over the past two years, a popular mall in nearby Arcadia had been hit several times by “smash-and-grab” thefts. In Rosemead, the number of homeless people living on major thoroughfares has noticeably increased after state officials began dismantling homeless encampments in Los Angeles this summer, said Steven Ly, the city’s mayor.
王先生自称是无党派人士，通常不投票，他更担心犯罪问题，此外还有他觉得美国在世界上的影响力在下降。在过去两年里，附近阿卡迪亚的一家受欢迎的购物中心多次遭遇“砸抢”。在罗斯米德，市长史蒂文·李（音）说，自今年夏天州政府官员开始拆除洛杉矶的无家可归者营地以来，居住在主要干道上的无家可归者数量明显增加。
It was enough, Mr. Wang said, to convince him to vote for Mr. Trump this year.
王先生说，这足以说服他今年投票给特朗普。
In Monterey Park, another Chinese-majority suburb, residents have complained about illegal boardinghouses and public littering. Some Chinese Americans have blamed undocumented Chinese migrants who have crossed the border over the past two years.
在另一个以华人为主的郊区蒙特利公园，居民抱怨非法寄宿屋和公共场所乱扔垃圾。一些华裔美国人认为这都要怪过去两年越过边境的中国无证移民。
“They’ve commented to me how, ‘We got here legally, I don’t know why they’re doing that,’” said Thomas Wong, the Democratic mayor of Monterey Park. “So there is this underlying tension and sentiment within our communities around some of the same rhetoric that has clearly propelled Trump to a second term.”
“他们跟我说，‘我们是合法入境的，我不知道他们为什么要这么做’，”蒙特利公园市民主党市长托马斯·黄（音）说道。“所以，我们社区内部围绕着某种叙事潜藏着紧张和情绪，而那种叙事显然推动了特朗普第二次当选。”
蒙特利公园的民主党市长托马斯·黄说，在这个亚裔占多数的郊区，居民们对非法寄宿屋和公共场所乱扔垃圾表达了不满。
Chinese-language social media spaces, which are popular among first-generation immigrants, reinforced the perception that California and New York were lawless states with Democratic leaders. Many of the narratives drew from right-wing, English-language misinformation and disinformation.
在第一代移民中很受欢迎的中文社交媒体空间强化了人们的这种看法：加州和纽约州是民主党领导的无法无天的地方。许多叙述都来自右翼的英文错误信息和虚假信息。
Among the most popular was the false claim that as attorney general of California, Kamala Harris was responsible for the 2014 criminal justice measure that reduced sentences for shoplifting up to $950 from stores. Many referred to the thefts in Chinese as “zero-dollar shopping.”
其中最流行的虚假声说法是，担任加州检察长期间，贺锦丽要对2014年的刑事司法措施负责，该措施对在商店行窃不超过950美元的行为实施减刑。在中文中，许多人将这种盗窃称为“零元购”。
Ms. Harris never publicly took a position on the measure. But there were rarely articles or videos rebutting the claims on Chinese-language social media, said Jinxia Niu, who leads Piyaoba, a Chinese-language fact-checking organization based in San Francisco.
贺锦丽从未就该措施公开表态。但旧金山中文事实核查机构辟谣吧的负责人牛金霞（音）表示，在中文社交媒体上很少有反驳这些说法的文章或视频。。
Ms. Niu noted that the Harris campaign did run a Chinese-language opinion piece right before the election. But it was published in The World Journal, a newspaper that has limited reach among Chinese Americans from mainland China, many of whom rely more on online platforms like WeChat.
牛金霞指出，贺锦丽竞选团队确实在大选前发表了一篇中文观点文章。但是是发表在《世界日报》上，该报在来自中国大陆的华裔美国人中的影响力有限，其中许多人更多依赖微信等在线平台。
It remains to be seen how long the rightward shift will last. Chinese Americans still align more with Democrats on certain issues such as gun control and climate change, and many have chafed at what they see as growing anti-China rhetoric and policies, particularly in Republican-led states. Younger, American-born Chinese Americans also see the Democratic Party as the stronger defender of ethnic minorities.
这种向右转的趋势会持续多长时间还有待观察。在枪支管制和气候变化等某些问题上，华裔美国人仍更多地与民主党保持一致，许多人对他们认为的日益增长的反华言论和政策感到不满，尤其是在共和党领导的州。在美国出生的年轻华裔美国人也认为，民主党是更有力的少数族裔捍卫者。
“It’s the first-generation immigrants who still retain a lot of the conservative traditional values that they have from back home,” said Aidan Chao, a second-generation Taiwanese American and a political consultant who works with Republican candidates in the San Gabriel Valley.
“第一代移民仍然保留着家乡的许多保守的传统价值观，”第二代台裔美国人艾丹·赵（音）说，他是一名政治顾问，在圣盖博谷为共和党候选人工作。
At a marathon Rosemead City Council meeting in October, a parade of mostly Chinese American immigrants stepped up to the podium to decry the city’s plans to open a small facility for homeless mothers and children.
10月，在罗斯米德市议会一场马拉松式会议上，人们纷纷上前发言，其中大多是华裔美国移民，他们谴责该市为无家可归的母亲和儿童开设小型设施的计划。
Many were convinced that the project was in fact a homeless shelter for 400 people. One woman, speaking through a Mandarin translator, blasted “you Democrats” for “shoving homeless people into every town and city.”
许多人相信，该项目实际上是一个可容纳400人的无家可归者收容所。一名讲普通话的女性通过翻译抨击“你们民主党人”“把无家可归者塞进每个城镇”。
City Council members quickly tried to make it clear that the supportive housing facility would not be allowed to expand beyond its stated cap of 87 people. They urged the charity developing the facility to work more directly with the Chinese community.
市议会成员很快试图明确表示，支持住房设施的规模不会超过规定的87人上限。他们敦促该慈善机构开发的设施更直接地与华人社区合作。
Ultimately, in the wee hours of the morning, the council approved the project.
最后，在凌晨1点，市议会批准了该项目。
Mr. Ly, the Rosemead mayor who has described himself as a “George W. Bush Republican,” said that Democrats could win back some Chinese Americans if they took the voters’ concerns more seriously. Too often, he suggested, Democrats have dismissed their perspectives as the product of misinformation or disinformation.
自称“小布什共和党人”的罗斯米德市市长李先生说，如果民主党更认真地对待选民的关切，他们就能赢回一些华裔。他认为，民主党人经常将华裔选民的观点视为误传或虚假信息的产物而不予理睬。
“That’s why Trump won, he’s willing to talk about the economy, crime and public safety,” Mr. Ly said. “It’s the left hiding under the covers until the problem goes away.”
“这就是特朗普获胜的原因，他愿意谈论经济、犯罪和公共安全，”李先生说。“而左翼躲在掩护之下，等着问题消失。”
2024年12月11日
For years after coming out as transgender, Ling’er, an aspiring influencer in eastern China, struggled from heartbreak to heartbreak. Her family refused to accept her. When she tried to find an interim job to support herself, employers would not hire her.
有志于成为网红的灵儿生活在中国东部，在公开跨性别者身份后的几年里，她一直在心碎中挣扎。家人拒绝接受她。她想找一份临时工作来养活自己，雇主拒绝雇用她。
And when her parents sent her to a hospital to try to change her gender identity, she was held there for three months, despite her repeated protests. She was forced to undergo treatment that included multiple rounds of electroshock therapy.
父母把她送到医院，试图改变她的性别身份，尽管她一再抗议，还是在那里被关了三个月，被迫接受包括多轮电击疗法在内的治疗。
So when she later sued the hospital for subjecting her to unnecessary and unwanted treatment, she was not optimistic. Then the seemingly unthinkable happened: A court accepted her complaint, in China’s first known lawsuit over so-called conversion therapy involving a transgender person. And the hospital agreed in October to pay her a sizable settlement.
因此，当她后来起诉医院对她进行不必要和她不想要的治疗时，她对诉讼并不乐观。然后，看似不可思议的事情发生了：一家法院接受了她的起诉，这是中国已知的首例涉及跨性别者的所谓扭转治疗诉讼。10月，医院同意向她支付一笔可观的赔偿金。
“To me, this is a win. With this money, I can start my new life, and start my own business,” said Ling’er, 28. “I can live my own life.”
“对我来说，这是一个胜利。有了这笔钱，我可以开始新生活，开始自己的事业，”28岁的灵儿说。“我可以拥有自己的生活了。”
The case is a rare bright spot in the fight for L.G.B.T.Q. rights in China. Ling’er’s lawsuit was covered sympathetically by some mainstream Chinese news outlets, even as overall coverage of L.G.B.T.Q. issues has diminished. That her lawsuit was accepted at all was a hard-won victory, her supporters said, in a country with no laws protecting L.G.B.T.Q. people.
这起案件是中国争取LGBTQ权利过程中罕见的光明时刻。尽管对LGBTQ问题的整体报道在减少，但一些中国主流新闻媒体还是带着同情地报道了灵儿的诉讼。她的支持者说，在一个没有法律保护LGBTQ人群的国家，她的诉讼被受理是来之不易的胜利。
As China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has overseen a crackdown on civil society, many L.G.B.T.Q. advocacy groups have been forced to shut down, and Pride celebrations have been canceled. Nationalist influencers have attacked L.G.B.T.Q. activism as a hostile foreign force. People have been punished for displaying rainbow flags.
随着中国领导人习近平对公民社会的镇压，许多LGBTQ倡导团体被迫关闭，骄傲庆祝活动也被取消。民族主义网红攻击LGBTQ行动主义是敌对外国势力。人们因展示彩虹旗而受到惩罚。
It is unclear whether the payout to Ling’er will have any effect on preventing future cases of conversion therapy, a practice that has been widely discredited by medical experts. The hospital pressed for the exact terms of the settlement to be confidential, and it has not acknowledged wrongdoing.
目前尚不清楚向灵儿支付的赔偿是否会对预防未来的扭转疗法案例产生影响，这种疗法目前已被医学专家广泛怀疑。医院坚持要求对和解协议的具体条款保密，并且没有承认有任何不当行为。
Ling’er was initially reluctant even to file the lawsuit. “Sexual minorities in China have no guarantees,” she said. “How could you possibly protect your rights?”
灵儿一开始甚至不愿意提起诉讼。“中国的性少数群体没有保障，”她说。“你怎么可能保护自己的权利？”
灵儿在天津的一家美发沙龙。她从小就知道自己喜欢和女孩在一起，上大学时才知道自己是跨性别者。
She was ultimately convinced by a group of L.G.B.T.Q. advocates, in China and overseas, with whom she had connected online and who helped her find lawyers. It was a support network that she could not have imagined finding in her rural, mountainous hometown in China’s Hebei Province.
她最终被一群在中国和海外的LGBTQ倡导者说服，她在网上和他们建立了联系，他们帮助她找到了律师。这是她在河北山区农村老家无法想象的支持网络。
Ling’er, who is using a chosen name, had known since childhood that she preferred spending time with girls, and she realized while studying at a vocational school that she was transgender. She eventually began taking estrogen and dressing in women’s clothing. But when she came out to her parents in 2021, during a visit home, they said she was disgracing their family.
灵儿这个名字是她自己取的，她从小就知道自己更喜欢和女孩在一起，在职业学校学习时，她意识到自己是跨性别者。最终，她开始服用雌激素并穿上女装。但是，当她在2021年回家探亲时向父母公开跨性别身份时，父母却说她丢了全家的脸。
In 2022, Ling’er agreed to her parents’ requests to see a psychiatrist at a hospital in the nearby city of Qinhuangdao, hoping it would appease them.
2022年，灵儿同意了父母的要求，去附近秦皇岛市的一家医院看精神科医生，希望这样能够安抚他们。
She explained to doctors at Qinhuangdao Jiulongshan Hospital that she did not think there was anything wrong with her gender identity, and that it was her parents who could not accept her. She acknowledged feeling anxious and depressed, but not to a serious extent. Hospital staff noted that she seemed clearheaded and spoke at a normal pace, medical and legal records show.
她向秦皇岛九龙山医院的医生解释说，她认为自己的性别认同没有任何问题，是父母不能接受她。她承认自己感到焦虑和沮丧，但不是很严重。医疗和法律记录显示，医院工作人员注意到她看起来头脑清醒，语速正常。
Even so, she was diagnosed with anxiety and “ego-dystonic sexual orientation.” The term, which has generally referred to people who are unhappy with their sexual orientation, was dropped from the World Health Organization’s official list of medical conditions in 2019, due to concerns that it contributed to discrimination against L.G.B.T.Q. people and had been used as justification for conversion therapy.
即便如此，她还是被诊断患有焦虑和“自我不和谐的性取向”。该术语通常指对自己的性取向不满意的人，由于担心该术语会助长对LGBTQ人群的歧视，并被用作扭转疗法的理由，世界卫生组织已于2019年将其从正式的医疗状况清单中删除。
Over Ling’er’s protests, her mother had her involuntarily hospitalized.
灵儿的母亲不顾她的抗议，在她非自愿的情况下将她送进了医院。
She remained in hospital for 97 days, despite repeatedly pleading to leave. She was given psychiatric medication and subjected to seven rounds of modified electroconvulsive therapy.
尽管她一再恳求出院，但还是在医院住了97天。她接受了精神科药物治疗，并接受了七轮改良电击治疗。
The doctors did not explicitly say that the electric shocks were intended to change her gender identity, Ling’er said, but they urged her to cut her hair short and wear men’s clothing, and they made clear that they believed her transgender identity was wrong.
灵儿说，医生并没有明确表示电击是为了改变她的性别身份，但他们要她剪短头发，穿男装，并明确表示他们认为她的跨性别身份是错误的。
“The doctors didn’t listen to anything I said,” she said. “They thought I was sick, so I was sick.”
“医生不听我说的任何话，”她说。“他们觉得我病了，所以我病了。”
Medical and private institutions offering “conversion therapy” are common in China, according to activists, because the stigma against transgender people is widespread.
据活动人士称，医疗和私人机构提供“扭转治疗”在中国很常见，因为对跨性别者的耻辱感普遍存在。
The Chinese Society of Psychiatry removed homosexuality from its list of mental disorders in 2001, but it retained the ego-dystonic diagnosis, and it also continues to classify transgender individuals as having a mental illness. People are allowed to change their legal genders, but only if they undergo gender-affirming surgery and notify their families.
2001年，中国精神病学协会将同性恋从精神疾病名单中删除，但保留了自我不和谐性取向的诊断，并继续将跨性别者归类为精神疾病。在中国，人们可以改变自己的法定性别，但必须接受性别肯定手术并通知家人。
In two landmark lawsuits — one concluded in 2014 and another in 2017 — judges ordered clinics to compensate the plaintiffs, gay men who had been subjected to conversion therapy, noting that their rights had been violated. But previous court rulings are not binding precedents in Chinese law.
在两起具有里程碑意义的诉讼中——一起于2014年结案，另一起于2017年结案——法官命令医院赔偿原告（接受扭转疗法的男同性恋者），称他们的权利受到了侵犯。但在中国法律中，以前的法院判决并不是具有约束力的判例。
The authorities’ continued classification of transgender people as mentally ill also makes it harder to build a legal case, said Chen Junmi, an L.G.B.T.Q. rights activist in the United States who helped Ling’er bring her lawsuit.
帮助灵儿提起诉讼的美国LGBTQ维权人士陈军米表示，当局继续将跨性别者归类为精神疾病患者，也让他们更难提起法律诉讼。
When Ling’er was finally released from the hospital, she returned home to find that her parents had thrown away her clothes and makeup. At first, she tried to live as a man. But in September last year, she decided to cut off her family and leave home.
灵儿最终出院了，她回到家，发现父母把她的衣服和化妆品都扔了。起初，她试图以男人的身份生活。但去年9月，她决定与家人断绝关系，离开家庭。
For months, she drifted from city to city. She was turned away when she tried to find work as a waitress or caterer and at times slept on the street. Seeking solace, she connected with L.G.B.T.Q. communities online, including Mx. Chen. In July, she sued the hospital. (Her lawyers also suggested suing her parents, but Ling’er said she could not bring herself to do that.)
几个月来，她从一个城市流浪到另一个城市。她想找一份服务员或餐饮店的工作，总是被拒绝，有时甚至露宿街头。为了寻求安慰，她在网上联系了LGBTQ群体，其中包括陈军米。7月，她起诉了那家医院。（律师还建议起诉她的父母，但灵儿说她不能这么做。）
The hospital denied any wrongdoing, arguing that Chinese law allows people with mental disorders to be hospitalized against their will with their families’ consent, if they cannot consent on their own. The hospital could not be reached for comment.
医院否认有任何不当行为，称中国法律允许精神障碍患者在无法自行同意的情况下，经家属同意，在违背本人意愿的情况下住院治疗。记者无法联系到该医院置评。
The hospital initially offered only one-quarter of the 80,000 yuan, or $11,000, that Ling’er had sought. But after months of negotiations, they reached a settlement that Ling’er said would allow her to start her own shop or street food stall, and to begin saving for gender-affirming surgery. She is now renting an apartment in the city of Tianjin, and she dreams of becoming an entertainer, playing instruments or chatting with viewers on livestream apps.
医院最初只肯出灵儿要求的8万元（约合1.1万美元）的四分之一。但经过几个月的谈判，他们达成了和解协议，灵儿说，这笔钱可以让她开一个自己的小店或街头小吃摊，并且开始为性别肯定手术存钱。她现在在天津市租了一套公寓，梦想成为艺人，演奏乐器，或者通过直播应用程序与观众聊天。
“对我来说，这是一个胜利。有了这笔钱，我可以开始新生活，开始自己的事业，”28岁的灵儿说。“我可以拥有自己的生活了。”
Ling’er said she thought she had won a favorable outcome in part because the judge overseeing the negotiations had been sympathetic to her.
灵儿说，她认为自己赢得有利结果的部分原因是监督谈判的法官同情她。
“Her attitude toward me was, ‘You are you, no one can change you,’” Ling’er said. “If all Chinese parents could be like that, our community’s problems could be resolved very easily.”
她对我的态度是，‘你就是你，没有人能改变你。’”灵儿说。“如果所有的中国父母都能这样，我们这个群体的问题就容易解决了。”
Mx. Chen, the activist, said that Chinese society has become more accepting of L.G.B.T.Q. people. That has created room to keep pushing for change, even if explicit activism has largely been shut down.
活动人士陈军米表示，中国社会对LGBTQ群体的接受度越来越高。这为继续推动变革创造了空间，即使明确的行动主义在很大程度上被封杀了。
“I think the government is learning too,” Mx. Chen said.
“我认为政府也在学习，”陈军米说。
Ling’er said she hoped to see legal protections for, and education about, diverse gender identities.
灵儿说，她希望看到对多元性别身份的法律保护和教育。
“My own strength is far from enough,” she said. “We need all sisters to stand up and work together to improve the situation of transgender people in China.”
“我自己的力量远远不够，”她说。“我们需要所有的姐妹都站出来，共同努力，改善中国跨性别者的状况。”
2024年12月11日
When protesters started trying in 2011 to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, they were part of a cascade of revolutions, known as the Arab Spring, that aimed to oust authoritarian leaders across the Middle East.
2011年，抗议者试图推翻叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德，那是被称为“阿拉伯之春”的系列革命的一部分，旨在推翻中东地区的威权领导人。
While opposition groups elsewhere experienced swift success, the Syrian revolution devolved into a 13-year civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and carved the country into competing fiefs.
当其他地方的反对派组织迅速取得了成功，叙利亚革命却演变成一场长达13年的内战，导致数十万人死亡，数以百万计的人流离失所，国家四分五裂。
Mr. al-Assad’s stunning fall finally allows Syrians to feel the joy that their counterparts experienced more than a decade ago in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen — the four Arab countries where dictators were toppled far more quickly.
阿萨德令人震惊的倒台终于让叙利亚人感受到十多年前埃及、利比亚、突尼斯和也门人民感受到的喜悦，在这四个阿拉伯国家，独裁者被推翻的速度要快得多。
Yet while those four states provided a template for revolutionary success, their trajectories since the Arab Spring also constitute a warning.
虽然这四个国家提供了革命成功的模板，但它们自阿拉伯之春以来的发展轨迹也构成了一个警告。
In Egypt and Tunisia, new strongmen eventually rose to power, crushing efforts to build pluralist democracies. In Libya and Yemen, rival militias jockeyed for control, leading to civil war and the partition of both countries.
在埃及和突尼斯，新的强人最终掌权，粉碎了建立多元民主的努力。在利比亚和也门，敌对的民兵争夺控制权，导致内战和分裂。
“The people who have survived the last 13 years deserve to enjoy the moment before they worry about the future,” said Alistair Burt, a former minister in the British government who helped spearhead its Mideast policy during the Arab Spring.
“在过去13年里幸存下来的人应该在担心未来之前享受这一刻，”英国政府前大臣阿利斯泰尔·伯特说，他在阿拉伯之春期间帮助制定了英国的中东政策。
“At the same time, we all know the experience of the region since 2011,” Mr. Burt said. “We want to hope for the best but we prepare for something worse.”
“与此同时，我们都知道该地区自2011年以来的经历，”伯特说。“我们希望有最好的结果，但我们也在为更糟的情况做准备。”
叙利亚人周日早些时候在叙利亚霍姆斯市的主要广场举行庆祝活动。
The dynamics in Syria make for a particularly fraught transition of power. The Islamist rebel alliance that led the rapid advance on Damascus, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is one of several rival opposition groups that must now agree on how to run Syria in the post-Assad era.
叙利亚的局势导致了令人特别担忧的权力交接。伊斯兰叛军联盟沙姆解放组织领导了对大马士革的快速进攻，它是几个敌对的反对派组织之一。这些组织现在必须就如何在后阿萨德时代管理叙利亚达成一致。
While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is now the most influential group in Syria, it is competing for influence with another Turkey-backed group based in northern Syria, as well as a secular Kurdish-led alliance in eastern Syria that is supported by the United States. And southern Syria is dominated by local rebel groups, including militias led by the Druse minority, an offshoot of Islam.
虽然沙姆解放组织现在是叙利亚最有影响力的组织，但它正在与另一个总部位于叙利亚北部、土耳其支持的组织，以及美国支持的叙利亚东部库尔德人领导的世俗联盟争夺影响力。叙利亚南部由当地反叛组织控制，包括由伊斯兰教分支德鲁兹少数民族领导的民兵组织。
Once affiliated with Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has tried to present itself as a moderate movement that seeks to preserve the rights of Syria’s many minorities, including its Christians, Druse and Alawites, the Shiite sect that formed Mr. al-Assad’s base.
曾经隶属于基地组织的沙姆解放组织一直试图把自己标榜为一个温和的运动，寻求维护叙利亚许多少数群体的权利，包括基督徒、德鲁兹派和阿拉维派，后者是构成阿萨德支持基础的什叶派。
Unless the group, which the United States has designated as a terrorist organization, makes good on that promise, analysts say, it could end up prolonging the civil war: Militias from different minorities may feel obliged to defend their areas from the new central government.
分析人士说，除非这个被美国认定为恐怖组织的派系兑现这一承诺，否则内战可能会因此而延长：来自不同少数群体的民兵可能会觉得有义务保卫自己的地区不受新中央政府的侵犯。
“You can’t tell people that they’re safe: They have to believe it,” said Mr. Burt. “That’s why the conduct of H.T.S. — and all those with guns at the moment in the liberated cities — is so important.”
“你不能光告诉人们他们是安全的：他们必须真心相信这一点，”伯特说。“这就是为什么沙姆解放组织的行为——以及此刻在被解放的城市里所有持枪者的行为——如此重要。”
周日，大马士革的一群人围住了阿布·穆罕默德·乔拉尼（中），他是周日攻占大马士革的“沙姆解放组织”组织的领导人。他随后在该市历史悠久的倭马亚清真寺发表了讲话。
Foreign powers like Iran, Turkey, Russia and the United States, which support different sides in the conflict, are expected to push to retain influence in the new era, potentially prolonging Syria’s internal disputes.
伊朗、土耳其、俄罗斯和美国等外国势力在冲突中支持不同派别，预计它们将努力在新的时代保持自己的影响力，这可能会延长叙利亚的内部争端。
The role and intentions of Mr. al-Assad’s former generals and security chiefs also remain unclear. They could yet prove decisive in any new power play, as their counterparts did in the countries where leaders were toppled in 2011-12.
阿萨德的前将军和安全部门主管们的角色和意图也不明朗。在新的权力角逐中，他们可能会成为决定性的力量，就像在2011至2012年那些领导人被推翻的国家中的将军和安全主管们所做的那样。
After the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt in 2011, the military leadership still controlled the pace of the political transition. After allowing elections, the military later took back power in a popular coup in 2013, ousting Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first freely elected president. Mr. Morsi, an Islamist, had himself angered many Egyptians through heavy-handed governance, leading some to lose faith in the democratic process.
2011年埃及胡斯尼·穆巴拉克倒台后，军方领导层仍控制着政治过渡的步伐。在允许选举后，军方又在2013年的一场民众政变中重新掌权，推翻了埃及首位自由选举产生的总统穆罕默德·穆尔西。穆尔西是伊斯兰教徒，他自身的高压统治激怒了许多埃及人，导致一些人对民主进程失去信心。
Elections were also held in Libya after the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in 2011, but the country has been partitioned since civil war broke out three years later.
2011年穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲上校下台后，利比亚也举行了选举，但自三年后内战爆发以来，该国一直处于分裂状态。
In Yemen, the departure of Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012 was also followed by a civil war, which allowed the Houthis, an Iran-backed movement, to seize the capital.
在也门，阿里·阿卜杜拉·萨利赫2012年下台后，也发生了内战，伊朗支持的胡塞武装占领了首都。
For years, Tunisia was the most successful of the Arab Spring countries, holding several elections after the downfall of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. But Tunisia returned to a form of one-man rule in 2021, when President Kais Saied removed checks on his power and began to restrict the media, weaken the judiciary and exert greater control over the electoral authorities.
多年来，突尼斯是阿拉伯之春运动中最成功的国家，在宰因·阿比丁·本·阿里倒台后举行了几次选举。但突尼斯在2021年又恢复了个人统治，时任总统凯伊斯·赛义德取消了对权力的制衡，开始限制媒体，削弱司法，并对选举机构施加了更大的控制。
2022年，突尼斯首都突尼斯的一个二手货市场。背景是限制民众自由的凯斯·赛义德总统的海报。
Given the complexity of Syria’s internal dynamics, some think that Mr. al-Assad’s departure is more likely to widen the rifts left by the country’s 13-year war, rather than heal them.
鉴于叙利亚内部局势的复杂性，一些人认为，阿萨德的离开更有可能扩大该国13年战争留下的裂痕，而不是治愈它们。
But other analysts say that it is precisely because of their wartime experience that Syrians may be able to achieve what their counterparts in Egypt and elsewhere could not.
但也有分析人士表示，正是因为叙利亚人拥有战争经验，他们才有可能取得埃及和其他地方的人民无法取得的成就。
A side effect of suffering for so many years is that Syrians have had far longer to prepare for this moment and consider how to navigate a post-Assad transition, according to Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based research institute.
伦敦研究机构查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目负责人萨南·瓦基尔表示，多年苦难的副作用是，叙利亚人有更长的时间为这一时刻做好准备，并考虑如何顺利通过阿萨德之后的过渡期。
That is “what distinguishes this moment for Syria,” she said. “There’s also been a lot of learning, there’s been mobilizing, there’s been activism.”
这就是“叙利亚此刻的不同之处”，她说。“还学到了很多，有很多动员、很多行动。”
For now, though, many Syrians say they want to enjoy the euphoria of Mr. al-Assad’s departure.
然而，就目前而言，许多叙利亚人表示，他们希望享受阿萨德下台带来的喜悦。
Mr. al-Assad oversaw a cruel government that threw hundreds of thousands of opponents into dirty, overcrowded prisons, where thousands were tortured and killed. Mr. al-Assad’s forces dropped thousands of barrel bombs on his own citizens and gassed some of them with chemical weapons.
阿萨德所领导的是一个残酷的政府，将数十万反对者关进肮脏、拥挤的监狱，数以千计的人在那里受到酷刑和杀害。阿萨德的部队向自己的公民投掷数以千计的桶状炸弹，还用化学武器对一些人进行毒气袭击。
His refusal to relinquish power in 2011 led to a bloody civil war that displaced millions of people, destroyed much of the country and led to the rise of terrorist groups like ISIS.
2011年，他拒绝放弃权力，导致了一场血腥的内战，数以百万计的人流离失所，国家的大部分地区遭到破坏，导致了伊斯兰国等恐怖组织的崛起。
“No matter what comes next, it won’t be worse than Bashar al-Assad’s regime,” said Hashem Alsouki, a Syrian former civil servant detained and tortured early in the war who later sought safety with his family in Europe.
“无论接下来发生什么，都不会比巴沙尔·阿萨德政权更糟糕，”前叙利亚公务员哈什姆·阿尔苏基说，他在战争初期被拘留并遭受酷刑，后来与家人一起前往欧洲寻求安全。
“Yes, there is concern for the future,” Mr. Alsouki added in a telephone interview. “At the same time, I have faith that we will overcome this stage. Because the Syrian people have learned a lot in these 13 years.”
“是的，人们对未来感到担忧，”阿尔苏基在电话采访中说。“与此同时，我相信我们会克服这个阶段。因为叙利亚人民在这13年里学到了很多。”
2024年12月11日
Behind a crumbling brick wall in a working-class neighborhood of Mexico City lurks a seemingly innocuous car lot. But it could be a sign of a potentially grave threat to the North American auto industry.
在墨西哥城一个工薪阶层社区，一堵破烂的砖墙后面隐藏着一个看似平平无奇的停车场。但它可能标志着北美汽车业面临的潜在严重威胁。
A makeshift dealership for the Chinese electric vehicle company BYD has sprung up in this dusty lot. Esteban Alegría, an employee, said the dealership was selling cars as fast as they arrived from China. Mr. Alegría’s top seller is the Dolphin Mini, a small but capable four-door electric compact that costs about $18,000, about $10,000 less than the cheapest battery-powered vehicle available in the United States.
在这个尘土飞扬的停车场里，中国电动汽车公司比亚迪的一家临时经销店拔地而起。经销店员工埃斯特班·阿莱格里亚说，店里的出售速度快到刚从中国运来就能卖掉。在阿莱格里亚这里，最畅销的车型是海豚迷你，这是一款小巧但性能强大的四门电动紧凑型汽车，售价约为1.8万美元，比美国最便宜的电池驱动汽车便宜约1万美元。
Mr. Alegría’s dealership is one of dozens that Chinese carmakers like BYD, Chery, Geely and SAIC are opening up around Mexico as they establish a foothold in North America.
阿莱格里亚所在的经销店是比亚迪、奇瑞、吉利和上汽等中国汽车制造商在墨西哥各地开设的数十家经销店之一，这些制造商正在北美站稳脚跟。
Chinese carmakers are effectively barred from the United States by tariffs that double the sticker price of vehicles imported from China, and they are not yet manufacturing significant numbers of vehicles in Mexico that could be exported across the border.
由于关税使从中国进口的汽车标价翻倍，中国汽车制造商实际上相当于被禁止进入美国，此外它们目前在墨西哥的生产规模还不足以出口到美国。
But their ambition to expand overseas is on vivid display in Mexico and across Latin America, Asia, Europe and Africa. Ads for Chinese brands are in airports and soccer stadiums and loom above Mexico City streets on large billboards. Chinese cars, both gasoline and electric models, are an increasingly common sight.
但它们向海外扩张的野心在墨西哥和拉丁美洲、亚洲、欧洲和非洲展现得淋漓尽致。中国品牌的广告出现在机场和足球场，墨西哥城街道上竖立着巨大的广告牌。中国汽车，无论是汽油车还是电动车，都越来越常见。
BYD and others are also looking for places to build factories in Mexico, although none have announced firm plans. Initially, the plants would serve Latin America, part of a campaign by Chinese automakers to erode the dominance of Japanese, American and European carmakers in places like Brazil and Thailand.
比亚迪和其他公司还在墨西哥寻找建厂地点，不过目前尚无一家公司宣布具体的计划。最初，这些工厂的计划是服务拉丁美洲，这是中国汽车制造商在巴西和泰国等地为削弱日本、美国和欧洲汽车制造商的主导地位而做出的努力的一部分。
But there is little doubt that, eventually, Chinese carmakers hope to use Mexico as an on-ramp to the United States.
但毫无疑问，最终中国汽车制造商希望利用墨西哥作为进入美国的入口。
“Maybe next year BYD can enter the United States,” Mr. Alegría said optimistically, as salsa music blared from a speaker hung on a pole and two men washed the dust from a newly arrived Dolphin. Nearby, workers mortared a cinder block wall, part of a new building that will replace the one-room sales office made of rough bricks topped by a corrugated metal roof.
“也许明年比亚迪可以进入美国市场，”阿莱格里亚乐观地说道，此时，挂在柱子上的扬声器播放着萨尔萨音乐，两名男子正在清洗刚到货的比亚迪海豚上的灰尘。旁边，工人们正在用灰泥砌成一堵煤渣砌块墙，这是新建筑的一部分，它将取代由粗糙的砖块砌成、屋顶是波纹金属板且仅有一间的销售办公室。
“If not,” Mr. Alegría added, with a smile, “I can deliver.”
“如果不能，”阿莱格里亚微笑着补充道，“我可以送货。”
It is very unlikely that the Dolphin or any other Chinese car brand will be available in the United States soon. Because of the high tariffs, Chinese carmakers have not tried to establish dealerships or get approval from federal regulators to sell in the United States. (BYD does make electric buses in California.)
比亚迪海豚或任何其他中国汽车品牌短时间内都不太可能进入美国。由于高关税，中国汽车制造商没有试图开设经销店铺或向联邦监管机构申请在美国销售的执照。(但比亚迪在加州生产电动公交车。)
And someone buying a BYD from a Mexican dealer like Mr. Alegría would have a hard time registering and insuring it in the United States because the cars have not demonstrated that they meet safety standards.
从阿莱格里亚这样的墨西哥经销商那里购买比亚迪的人将很难在美国注册和投保，因为这些汽车没有证明它们符合安全标准。
President Biden and President-elect Donald J. Trump have been emphatic about wanting to keep Chinese automakers out of the United States, well aware of the threat they pose to U.S. car and auto parts factories that employ a million workers.
拜登总统和候任总统特朗普反复重申希望阻止中国汽车制造商进入美国，他们很清楚这些制造商对雇佣了100万工人的美国汽车和零部件工厂构成的威胁。
Mr. Trump has threatened 25 percent tariffs on all Mexican products, including cars. Mr. Biden has pursued policies aimed at fending off the challenge from China, including subsidies for U.S. battery factories. The Chinese government has long subsidized carmakers with the goal of becoming a major auto exporter.
特朗普威胁对包括汽车在内的所有墨西哥产品征收25%的关税。拜登则一直奉行旨在抵御中国挑战的政策，包括为美国电池工厂提供补贴。中国政府长期补贴汽车制造商，目标是成为一个主要的汽车出口国。
伊斯塔帕拉帕的比亚迪经销店是比亚迪、奇瑞、吉利和上汽等中国汽车制造商在墨西哥各地开设的数十家经销店之一，这些制造商正在北美市场站稳脚跟。
But in the years to come it may be difficult to explain to consumers in the United States why they’re not allowed to buy inexpensive electric vehicles that are readily available across the border, especially if they’re made in Mexico, which already manufactures millions of cars for the United States.
但在未来几年可能很难向美国消费者解释为什么他们不能购买平价的电动汽车，这些车在边境之外随处可见，尤其是如果它们是在墨西哥制造的，而墨西哥已经在为美国生产数以百万计的汽车。
Less than 20 years ago, Chinese cars were widely seen as inferior, even by many Chinese drivers. But in recent years, the country’s manufacturers have pulled even with foreign rivals in mechanical quality, analysts say, and often surpass U.S., Japanese and European carmakers in battery technology, autonomous driving and entertainment software. (Think in-car karaoke and rotating touch screens.)
不到20年前，中国汽车被普遍视为劣等品，甚至许多中国司机也这样看。但分析师称，近年来，中国制造商在机械质量方面与外国竞争对手不相上下，在电池技术、自动驾驶和娱乐软件方面常常超过美国、日本和欧洲的汽车制造商。（比如车内有卡拉OK和旋转触摸屏。）
Chinese carmakers have clawed significant market share domestically from once-dominant companies like Volkswagen. Even Tesla, which has a large factory in Shanghai, has lost ground to BYD and other Chinese carmakers. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, will be in a position to influence U.S. auto and China policy after spending more than $250 million to support the Trump campaign and becoming a close adviser to the president-elect.
中国汽车制造商已经从大众汽车等一度占据主导地位的公司手中夺取了大量国内市场份额。即使是在上海拥有大型工厂的特斯拉也已经在比亚迪和其他中国汽车制造商面前失去了竞争力。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克将有能力影响美国汽车和中国政策，此前他斥资逾2.5亿美元支持特朗普竞选，并成为这位候任总统的亲密顾问。
“Before the pandemic, the rules were set down by the Western carmakers,” said Felipe Munoz, global analyst at JATO Dynamics, a research firm. “Now it’s the opposite.”
“在疫情之前，规则是由西方汽车制造商制定的，”研究公司JATO Dynamics的全球分析师费利佩·穆尼奥斯说。“现在正好相反。”
Representatives of several Chinese carmakers declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. Jorge Vallejo, BYD’s director general for Mexico, agreed to an interview but canceled abruptly as New York Times reporters waited outside his office in Mexico City. The company’s representative declined to reschedule or make other executives available.
几家中国汽车制造商的代表或拒绝置评，或没有回应置评请求。虽然比亚迪墨西哥公司总经理豪尔赫·巴列霍同意接受采访，但就在《纽约时报》的记者在他位于墨西哥城的办公室外等着与其见面时，他突然取消了采访。公司代表拒绝重新安排采访时间，或安排其他高管接受采访。
China’s car market is the world’s largest by far, and the growing prowess of domestic producers is having far-reaching effects. General Motors said on Wednesday that it would take a more than $5 billion hit to its profit as it restructured its operations in China, which have been losing money in recent years.
中国的汽车市场现在远大于世界上其他汽车市场，国内汽车制造商不断增长的实力给外界带来深远影响。通用汽车周三表示，因为在对近年来一直亏损的中国业务进行重组，公司四季度的利润将降低至少50亿美元。
墨西哥城的一辆白色比亚迪电动车。中国品牌汽车目前占墨西哥新车销量的9%，而五年前这一比例几乎为零。
Mary T. Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, acknowledged the price pressure from Chinese carmakers during an interview in October. “We’ll continue to look at smart ways to take cost out,” she said, while insisting that the company could still compete with China.
在今年10月份的一次采访中，通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉承认中国汽车制造商给公司带来价格压力。“我们将继续寻找降低成本的聪明办法，”她说，同时坚称公司仍能与中国竞争。
Arno Antlitz, the chief financial officer of Volkswagen, noted that the industry had dealt with new competitors before, including Japanese carmakers in the 1970s and South Korean carmakers in recent decades. “We think we have a competitive setup,” he said in an interview in October.
大众汽车首席财务官阿诺·安特利茨指出，汽车行业以前也曾面临过新竞争对手的问题，包括20世纪70年代与日本汽车制造商，以及近几十年里与韩国汽车制造商的竞争。“我们认为我们有竞争优势，”他在今年10月的一次采访中说。
Still, the auto industry does not appear to have seen anything like the current wave of Chinese brands, which have quickly overtaken Japanese companies as the world’s largest auto exporters.
尽管如此，汽车行业似乎从未遇到过与当前中国车企带来的浪潮类似的情形，中国制造商已迅速取代了日本公司，成为全球最大的汽车出口商。
Chinese carmakers have made deep inroads in countries where they have local production or face few significant trade barriers. In Brazil, Chinese brands have a 9 percent share of car sales, up from 1 percent in 2019. In Thailand, they have 18 percent of the market, up from 5 percent in 2019, according to JATO.
中国汽车制造商已在拥有本地工厂，或者没有大的贸易壁垒的国家取得了长足进步。中国品牌已在巴西的汽车销量中占到9%，高于2019年的1%。根据JATO的数据，中国品牌也占泰国汽车市场份额的18%，高于2019年的5%。
In Mexico, Chinese brands now account for 9 percent of new car sales, up from effectively nothing five years ago.
中国品牌目前占墨西哥新车销量的9%，而五年前这个比例几乎为零。
“They gained market share when other brands didn’t have inventory and there were long waits to get cars in Mexico,” said Guillermo Rosales Zárate, president of the Mexican Association of Automobile Distributors.
“当其他品牌没有库存，墨西哥人要等待很长时间才能到货的情况下，中国品牌赢得了市场份额，”墨西哥汽车经销商协会主席吉列尔莫·罗萨莱斯·萨拉特说。
In San Luis Potosí, an industrial hub 250 miles north of Mexico City, BYD models are taking customers from Toyota, said Fernando López, manager of a dealership that sells both brands from a showroom in an upscale neighborhood.
费尔南多·洛佩茲是墨西哥城以北400公里的工业中心圣路易斯波多西一个高档社区的汽车经销商经理，他说，比亚迪的车型正在把丰田的顾客抢走，他的展厅里有这两个品牌的汽车。
BYD’s Shark pickup, a $45,000 plug-in hybrid, is poaching buyers from the Toyota Tacoma, he said, while the BYD Song, a $30,000 plug-in S.U.V., is luring customers from the Toyota RAV4. The Chinese models cost $10,000 less than the comparable Toyotas.
比亚迪的Shark皮卡是一款售价4.5万美元的插电式混合动力车，他说，这款车正在抢走丰田Tacoma的顾客，而比亚迪 Song是一款售价3万美元的插电式SUV，它正在吸引丰田RAV4的客户。中国品牌的车型比同类丰田车型便宜1万美元。
“I don’t know if people are going to let them sell in the United States,” Mr. López said, referring to BYD, “but they can compete with any brand.”
“我不知道美国人是否会允许它们在美国销售，”洛佩茲谈到比亚迪时说，“但它们能与任何品牌竞争。”
费尔南多·洛佩茲是圣路易斯波多西一家比亚迪经销商的经理，他身后是2025年版的BYD Shark插电式混合动力皮卡。
Mexico is the world’s seventh-largest auto producer, just behind South Korea and Germany. Most major carmakers have factories in Mexico, including G.M., Ford Motor, Stellantis and Volkswagen. Many use parts from Chinese companies like Minghua, which produces bumpers and other components from a plant next to a large BMW factory outside San Luis Potosí.
墨西哥是世界第七大汽车生产国，仅次于韩国和德国。大多数主要汽车制造商在墨西哥设有工厂，包括通用汽车、福特汽车、斯特兰蒂斯以及大众汽车。这些汽车制造商大都使用来自明华等中国公司的零部件，明华在圣路易斯波多西郊外有一家生产保险杠和其他零部件的工厂，一个大型宝马工厂就在它旁边。
Almost 80 percent of vehicles produced in Mexico, more than two million through September, went to the United States, according to the Mexican Automotive Industry Association.
据墨西哥汽车工业协会，墨西哥生产的汽车中有近80%销往美国，到今年9月为止已超过200万辆。
Although U.S. tariffs on cars made in China are high, in theory Chinese cars made in Mexico and exported north of the border would currently have to pay a maximum tariff of just 2.5 percent.
尽管美国对中国制造的汽车征收高关税，但理论上，在墨西哥生产并出口到美国的中国汽车目前只需缴纳最高2.5%的关税。
But the United States would probably put pressure on the Mexican government to erect barriers to Chinese automakers. Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has played down talk of a BYD factory in Mexico and emphasized that relations with the United States are the government’s top priority.
但美国可能会向墨西哥政府施压，要求它对中国汽车制造商设置障碍。墨西哥新任总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆已淡化了有关比亚迪在墨西哥建工厂的传言，并强调，与美国的关系是其政府的首要任务。
Mexico is “so economically tied to the U.S., at the end of the day this is a straightforward calculation,” said Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who focuses on international economic relations. In October, the Mexican government raised the tariff on imported cars to 20 percent from 15 percent, in what was widely seen as a reaction to growing sales of Chinese vehicles.
墨西哥“在经济上与美国联系得如此紧密，这一考量到头来并不复杂”，布鲁金斯学会专门研究国际经济关系的高级研究员乔舒亚·梅尔策说。今年10月，墨西哥政府将进口汽车的关税从15%提高到20%，此举被广泛视为对中国汽车销量增长的反应。
The threat from China will grow as electric vehicles become more popular. Those cars already account for half of all new cars in China, giving the country’s carmakers a head start.
随着电动汽车越来越受欢迎，来自中国的威胁将越来越大。电动汽车已占中国新车总产量的一半，让中国汽车制造商有起步优势。
Auto executives expect electric vehicles to eventually supplant gasoline and diesel models even if Mr. Trump removes financial incentives for such cars and trucks. G.M., Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and others have staked billions of dollars on electric-car and battery factories.
汽车业高管预计，即使特朗普取消对电动汽车和卡车的经济激励，电动汽车也将最终取代使用汽油和柴油的车型。通用汽车、现代、梅赛德斯-奔驰等公司都已在电动汽车和电池工厂上投入了数十亿美元的资金。
In Mexico, electric vehicles account for less than 2 percent of new car sales, but have grown more than 40 percent this year despite a dearth of public chargers. Electric vehicles in Mexico City are exempt from restrictions that apply to gasoline and diesel vehicles on days when air pollution is very bad.
墨西哥的电动汽车销量在新车销量中占比不到2%，但今年的电动汽车销量已增长了40%以上，尽管该国缺少公共充电桩。在空气污染严重的日子里，墨西哥城的电动汽车不受汽油和柴油汽车出行的限制。
That helps the Dolphin Mini, said Daniela Alvarez, a saleswoman at another BYD dealership squeezed into a storefront beneath a Mexico City parking garage.
这助推了海豚迷你的销量，在另一家比亚迪经销店的销售员丹妮拉·阿尔瓦雷斯说，这家销售店位于墨西哥城一个停车场下面。
Ms. Alvarez rattled off the Dolphin’s technical specifications, including its advanced battery technology, rotating video display and four airbags. While Chinese electric vehicles still cost more than gasoline models, she said, they cost only 30 percent as much to fuel.
阿尔瓦雷斯滔滔不绝地说起海豚迷你的技术规格，包括先进的电池技术、能旋转的显示屏，以及四个安全气囊。她说，虽然中国电动汽车的价格仍高于汽油车型，但燃料成本仅为汽油车型的30%。
“Electricity is cheaper than gas,” she said. “You can make up the difference.”
“电比汽油便宜，”她说。“用久了能补上汽车的售价差额。”
2024年12月11日
Taiwan said on Tuesday that China was conducting its largest maritime operations in nearly three decades, sending nearly 90 naval and coast guard vessels into waters stretching from the southern Japanese islands to the South China Sea.
台湾周二表示，中国正在展开近30年来最大规模的海上行动，近90艘海军和海警船只出现在日本列岛以南水域到南中国海之间。
Taiwanese defense officials said the scope of the deployment suggested that China was not only trying to show that it could choke the self-governed island, but also that it could block American allies in the region like Japan and the Philippines from coming to Taiwan’s defense.
台湾国防官员表示，这次行动的规模表明，中国试图展示它不仅有能力全面封控这个自治岛屿，还有能力阻止美国在该地区的盟友（比如日本和菲律宾）前来保护台湾。
China has “extended their military strength outward,” Gen. Hsieh Jih-sheng, a senior official in Taiwan’s ministry of defense told reporters. “The numbers are indeed astonishing,” he said, referring to the surge of Chinese vessels in the waters. Sun Li-fang, a spokesman for Taiwan’s defense ministry, said the maritime operations were the largest that Taiwan has seen since 1996.
中国“兵力向外延伸”，台湾国防部高级官员谢日升中将对记者说。“数字非常惊人，”他指的是台湾周边水域里中国船只的数量激增。台湾国防部发言人孙丽芳说，这是自1996年以来台湾看到的规模最大的海上行动。
The officials said that Taiwan was on high alert in response to the Chinese ships, many of which were in waters off Taiwan’s southwest, east and northwest coasts.
官员们说，大量中国船只位于台湾西南部、东部和西北部水域，作为应对，台湾处于高度戒备状态。
China’s intentions were not immediately clear. There were no official announcements from Beijing that its forces were holding exercises. A foreign ministry spokeswoman, asked on Tuesday if China was conducting drills near Taiwan, deflected the question.
中国的意图目前尚不清楚。中国政府没有正式宣布军队将举行演习。中国外交部发言人周二被问及中国是否正在台湾附近举行军演时，她回避了这个问题。
Speculation had been growing for days that China would launch war games in retaliation for visits made by Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s president, to Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam last week while on his way to the Pacific islands.
连日来，对中国将举行军演的猜测越来越多，人们认为中国会报复台湾总统赖清德上周在前往太平洋岛国访问途中在夏威夷和美国领土关岛停留的做法。
China claims Taiwan, an island democracy, as its territory and opposes formal exchanges between it and countries like the United States. Mr. Lai’s visit to Guam, during which he had a phone call with Speaker Mike Johnson, drew condemnation from Beijing.
中国声称民主自治的台湾是其领土，反对它与美国等国家之间的正式交流。赖清德在关岛与美国众议院议长迈克·约翰逊通了电话，此举遭到了北京的谴责。
Taiwan said that it detected nearly 90 ships in the broader region, two-thirds of which were naval. Officials from the defense ministry said they had detected 47 Chinese warplanes and 12 Chinese naval ships close to the island. Taiwanese national security officials said it took China more than two months to amass all the ships and thousands of Navy soldiers for the operation.
台湾表示，在更广泛的区域内，已发现了近90艘船只，其中三分之二是中国海军船只。台湾国防部官员说，他们在台湾近海的海空中发现了47架中国战斗机和12艘中国海军舰艇。台湾国家安全官员称，中国花了两个多月时间将这些舰艇和数千名海军士兵集结起来参加这次行动。
General Hsieh suggested that China’s silence about the large deployment was aimed at catching the island off guard. Some Taiwanese analysts said that China was taking a muted approach to avoid inflaming tensions with other countries.
谢日升表示，中国对这次大规模行动保持沉默，目的是让台湾措手不及。台湾一些分析人士说，中国对这次行动持低调态度，是为了避免激化与其他国家的紧张关系。
“The purpose is to show its dissatisfaction” with Mr. Lai, “but to avoid an excessive international backlash,” said Su Tzu-yun, a security analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.
“目的是（向赖清德）表示不满，但同时避免过度的国际反弹，”位于台北的国防安全研究院安全分析师苏紫云说。
China has already held two major military exercises since Mr. Lai was inaugurated in May, most recently in October. The war games have simulated encircling Taiwan in an effort to intimidate the island and warn its biggest backer, the United States, not to push Beijing too far. Such exercises add to the pressure China’s military already puts on Taiwan by deploying warplanes and naval ships almost daily to probe and exhaust the island’s defenses.
自从赖清德今年5月上任以来，中国已经举行了两次大型军演，最近一次是在10月。这些演习模拟了封锁台湾的情形，以达到恐吓目的，并警告其最大的支持者美国不要逼中国政府采取行动。中国军队几乎每天出动战机和海军舰艇在台湾附近行动，探测和消耗台湾的防御能力，此类演习进一步加剧了向台湾施加的压力。
The surge in Chinese ships this week could also be a signal to the incoming Trump administration, which has yet to indicate how it will deal with Taiwan. President-elect Donald J. Trump has called for Taiwan to increase its military spending and has complained about the island’s dominance in making semiconductors. But some people he has picked to serve in his administration favor confronting China and offering more support to Taiwan.
中国派往台湾周边水域的船只数量激增，这也可能是向即将上任的特朗普政府发出的信号，后者尚未明确表示将如何处理台湾问题。候任总统特朗普已要求台湾增加军费开支，并抱怨过台湾在半导体制造领域的主导地位。但他提名担任政府官员的一些人赞成与中国对抗，并向台湾提供更多支持。
台湾总统赖清德（中）上个月在檀香山。
While in Hawaii, Mr. Lai met with Hawaii’s governor, Josh Green, and delivered a speech about Taiwan’s security at the East-West Center, an education and research nonprofit. Mr. Lai also had a 20-minute phone call with Nancy Pelosi, the former U.S. House speaker. The two discussed China’s growing military threats and Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, said Karen Kuo, Mr. Lai’s spokeswoman.
赖清德路过夏威夷时与该州州长乔希·格林见了面，并在东西方中心发表了关于台湾安全的演讲，该中心是一个从事教育和研究的非营利组织。赖清德还与美国众议院前议长南希·佩洛西通了20分钟的电话。赖清德政府发言人郭雅慧说，他们讨论了中国日益增长的军事威胁和台湾的半导体产业。
Mr. Lai went on to visit the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, three Pacific Island nations that are among just a dozen states that maintain diplomatic relations with Taipei rather than Beijing.
赖清德离开夏威夷后访问了马绍尔群岛、图瓦卢以及帕劳这三个太平洋岛国，目前与台北而非北京保持外交关系的国家仅剩12个。
Few issues are more volatile between the United States and China than the status of Taiwan. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has called “reunification” with the island “inevitable,” and said that Beijing would use force to that end if necessary. Washington, in turn, adheres to the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which obligates the United States to ensure Taiwan can defend itself.
美中之间最敏感的莫过于台湾地位问题。中国最高领导人习近平称大陆与台湾的“统一不可避免”，并表示中国政府在必要时将用武力收复台湾。美国政府则按照1979年的《台湾关系法》行事，该法要求美国确保台湾有自卫能力。
Even though it has been happening for decades, China still objects when the United States sells arms to Taiwan. Last week, it imposed sanctions on more than a dozen U.S. defense firms and several defense industry executives in retaliation for Washington’s approval last month of a $387 million defense package.
尽管美国几十年来一直在对台进行军售，但中国每次都予以反对。上周，中国对十多家美国军工企业和几名企业高管实施了制裁，以报复华盛顿上个月批准了一项总额3.87亿美元的军售计划。
“Buying weapons cannot buy security, and ‘protection fees’ cannot guarantee Taiwan independence,” Chen Binhua, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said earlier this month.
“买武器买不来安全，‘保护费’保不了‘台独’，”中国台湾事务办公室发言人陈斌华曾在本月早些时候这样说。
2024年12月10日
Luigi Mangione, the online version of him, was an Ivy League tech enthusiast who flaunted his tanned, chiseled looks in beach photos and party pictures with blue-blazered frat buddies.
路易吉·曼吉奥尼——至少在网上的他——是一个出身常春藤校的技术爱好者，在海滩照和穿蓝西装的兄弟会派对中展示自己的古铜肤色和健美身材。
He was the valedictorian of a prestigious Baltimore prep school who earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees at the University of Pennsylvania and served as a head counselor at a pre-college program at Stanford University.
他毕业于巴尔的摩一所声望很高的预科学校，是毕业告别致辞者，拥有宾夕法尼亚大学的学士和硕士学位，并在斯坦福大学的大学预科项目中担任首席顾问。
With his credentials and connections, he could have ended up one day as an entrepreneur or the chief executive of one of his family’s thriving businesses. Instead, investigators suspect, he took a different path.
凭借资历和人脉，他本可以最终成为一名企业家，或者到家族生意中某个兴旺发达的企业去当首席执行官。然而，调查人员怀疑，他选择了一条不同的道路。
The police now believe that Mr. Mangione, 26, is the masked gunman who calmly took out a pistol equipped with a silencer on a Midtown Manhattan street last week and assassinated Brian Thompson, the chief executive of UnitedHealthcare. He was arrested in Altoona, Pa., on Monday after an employee at a McDonald’s recognized him and called the police. Officers said they found him with fake identification, a weapon similar to the one seen in video of the killing, and a manifesto decrying the health care industry.
警方现在认为，26岁的曼吉奥尼就是上周曼哈顿中城枪击案中的蒙面枪手，当时枪手冷静地掏出一把装有消音器的手枪，当街杀死了联合健康保险公司首席执行官布莱恩·汤普森。周一，一名麦当劳员工认出他并报警后，他在宾夕法尼亚州阿尔图纳被捕。警方表示，他们发现他携带了假身份证，一把与监控录像中所见凶器相似的武器，以及一份谴责医疗保险行业的宣言。
Later on Monday, Mr. Mangione was charged in Manhattan with murder, along with additional counts of forgery and illegal weapons possession. And in the hours after his apprehension, his baffling journey from star student to murder suspect began to come into focus.
周一晚些时候，曼吉奥尼在曼哈顿被控谋杀，另有多项伪造和非法持有枪支罪名。从明星学生到杀人疑凶，这段令人困惑的人生历程在他被捕后的几小时内开始变得清晰。
Mr. Mangione was in regular contact with friends and family until about six months ago when he suddenly and inexplicably stopped communicating with them. He had been suffering the effects of a painful back injury, friends said, but then went dark, prompting anxious inquiries from relatives to his friends: Had anyone heard from him?
曼吉奥尼直到大约六个月前还与朋友和家人保持着联系，但其后交流突然中断，没人知道原因。朋友们说，他之前一直有严重的背疼问题，然后突然就没了踪影，促使他的家人焦急地询问他的朋友：有人听到他的消息吗？
In July, one man tagged a social media account that appeared to belong to Mr. Mangione and said that he hadn’t heard from him in months. “You made commitments to me for my wedding and if you can’t honor them I need to know so I can plan accordingly,” the man wrote in a now-deleted post.
一名男子在7月用标记功能提及一个似乎属于曼吉奥尼的社交媒体账户，并表示他已经好几个月没有收到他的消息了。“你对我的婚礼做出了承诺，如果你不能履行，我需要知道，以便做出相应计划，”这名男子在一条现已删除的帖子中写道。
Those six months will most likely become a focus for investigators as they try to piece together what connection Mr. Mangione may have to the killing — and what he was doing in the time that no one could find him.
这六个月很可能成为调查人员的重点，因为他们试图拼凑曼吉奥尼与谋杀案的任何关联——以及在没有人能找到他的那段时间里，他在做什么。
Mr. Mangone left behind a long series of postings about self-improvement, healthy eating and technology — and a review of the Unabomber’s manifesto.
曼吉奥尼留下了一系列关于自我提升、健康饮食和技术的帖子——以及对“炸弹客”卡辛斯基的宣言的评论。
Bullet casings left at the scene, scrawled with words like “deny” and “delay,” left the authorities and the public wondering if the shooting was payback for health care insurers rejecting claims.
现场留下的子弹壳上写着“拒绝”和“拖延”等字样，这让当局和公众怀疑，这起枪击事件是对拒绝赔付的健康保险公司进行的报复。
In the wake of the attack, social media seethed with resentment against the insurance industry, and the unidentified suspect became, to some, a folk hero.
袭击之后，社交媒体上充斥着对保险业的不满，身份不明的嫌疑人在一些人眼中成了民间英雄。
Mr. Mangione came from a privileged upbringing, part of an influential real estate family in the Baltimore area.
曼吉奥尼家境优渥，出身于巴尔的摩地区一个有影响力的房地产家族。
一名麦当劳员工从警方发布的照片中认出了这名嫌疑人。
His grandfather, Nick Mangione Sr., and grandmother, Mary C. Mangione, purchased the Turf Valley country club in Ellicott City, Md., in the 1970s and developed the golf course community.
他的祖父老尼克·曼吉奥尼和祖母玛丽·C·曼吉奥尼在上世纪70年代购买了位于马里兰州埃利科特城的图尔夫谷乡村俱乐部，并开发了高尔夫球场社区。
In the 1980s, the family purchased Hayfields Country Club in Hunt Valley, Md. It also founded the nursing home company Lorien Health Services, and Mr. Mangione’s father, Louis Mangione, became an owner. The family also owned the radio station WCBM, which airs politically conservative programs and has other real estate holdings. A cousin, Nino Mangione, is an elected member of the Maryland House of Delegates.
上世纪80年代，这个家族购买了位于马里兰州亨特谷的黑菲尔兹乡村俱乐部。此外还创办了疗养院公司洛丽恩健康服务公司，曼吉奥尼的父亲路易·曼吉奥尼成为其所有人。这个家族还拥有播出政治保守派节目的广播电台WCBM以及其他的房地产资产。他的堂兄尼诺·曼吉奥尼是马里兰州众议院的当选议员。
The family’s wealth and work with charity made it well known in Baltimore. Luigi Mangione was “just the last person you would suspect,” said Thomas J. Maronick Jr., a lawyer and radio host who knows several members of the Mangione family.
这个家族的财富和慈善工作使它在巴尔的摩广为人知。路易吉·曼吉奥尼是“那种怀疑谁都不会怀疑到他的人”，认识几位曼吉奥尼家族成员的律师、电台主持人托马斯·J·马罗尼克说。
“It is just such a well-respected family and such a prominent family within Baltimore County,” he said.
“这是一个如此受人尊敬的家族，在巴尔的摩县闻名遐迩，”他说。
Luigi Mangione attended high school at the prestigious Gilman School in Baltimore, where he wrestled and played other sports and was the valedictorian of his graduating class in 2016. In a graduation speech, he described his class as “coming up with new ideas and challenging the world around it.”
路易吉·曼吉奥尼在巴尔的摩著名的吉尔曼学校上高中，在校期间参与了摔跤以及其他体育运动，在2016年成为毕业班的告别致辞者。在演讲中，他说他这一级同学在“提出新的想法，挑战周围的世界”。
He thanked parents in attendance for sending him and his classmates to the school, which he described as “far from a small financial investment.” Tuition is currently $37,690 per year for high schoolers.
他感谢在场的家长们把他和他的同学送进这所学校，他说这是“一笔不小的投资”。目前，该校高中生的学费为每年37690美元。
Aaron Cranston, who became friends with Mr. Mangione during their time at Gilman, said he recalled Mr. Mangione as being particularly smart — perhaps the smartest at the elite private school. Even before college, Mr. Mangione had already made a mobile app where users could fly a paper airplane through obstacles.
艾伦·克兰斯顿在吉尔曼就读期间与曼吉奥尼成为朋友，他回忆，曼吉奥尼特别聪明——也许是这所精英私立学校里最聪明的人。甚至在上大学之前，曼吉奥尼就已经开发了一款移动应用，用户可以在应用中驾驶纸飞机绕过障碍物。
Mr. Mangione was social, friendly and never particularly political, Mr. Cranston recalled. He was ambitious and carried his long interest in computer science toward college.
克兰斯顿回忆，曼吉奥尼擅长交际、待人友好，并不特别热衷政治。他雄心勃勃，把自己对计算机科学的长期兴趣带进了大学。
“He was a big believer in the power of technology to change the world,” Mr. Cranston said.
“他坚信技术改变世界的力量，”克兰斯顿说。
Freddie Leatherbury, 26, an accountant who lives in Catonsville, Md., graduated from Gilman with Mr. Mangione in 2016. He recalled Mr. Mangione playing soccer for the high school team and running track or cross country.
26岁的弗雷迪·莱瑟伯里是一名会计师，住在马里兰州的卡顿斯维尔，2016年，他与曼吉奥尼一起从吉尔曼毕业。他回忆说，曼吉奥尼曾在高中足球队踢过球，还参加过田径或越野赛。
“Those are both such disciplined sports. It says a lot about who he was as a student,” Mr. Leatherbury said. “He was very smart, a pretty big math guy, really well read and quite well liked to be honest. I don’t have any bad memories of him. He had a very healthy social circle.”
“这两项运动都是很需要纪律的。这在很大程度上说明了他是一个怎样的学生，”莱瑟伯里说。“他非常聪明，数学很好，博览群书，而且，说实话，他人缘很好。我对他没有任何不好的回忆。他的社交圈非常健康。”
Race Saunders, 27, now a software developer who lives in California, recalled being “study buddies” with Mr. Mangione in high school. He remembered Mr. Mangione as a hard worker.
27岁、现居加州的软件开发人员赖斯·桑德斯回忆，高中时他与曼吉奥尼是“学习伙伴”关系。在他的记忆中，曼吉奥尼非常勤奋。
“We were all definitely leaning toward computer science,” Mr. Saunders said.
“我们肯定都偏好计算机科学，”桑德斯说。
In college, Mr. Mangione excelled in that field. The commencement program for the University of Pennsylvania’s class of 2020 lists Mr. Mangione as a member of the school’s chapter of Eta Kappa Nu, an academic honor society for students in electrical and computer engineering that was founded in 1904. The society is selective, inviting only the top quarter of the junior class and top third of the senior class in those majors for membership, according to its website.
进入大学后，曼吉奥尼在计算机科学领域表现优异。在宾夕法尼亚大学的2020届毕业典礼材料中，曼吉奥尼被列为该校伊塔卡帕纽(Eta Kappa Nu)分会成员，这是一个电气和计算机工程专业学生学术荣誉社团，成立于1904年。协会网站显示，它只邀请这些专业中成绩位列前四分之一的大三学生和成绩位列前三分之一的大四学生成为会员。
现场留下的弹壳上潦草地写着“拒绝”和“拖延”等字样，这让当局和公众怀疑这起枪击事件是对医疗保险公司拒绝赔付的报复。
Mr. Mangione’s interest in computer games started at a young age, when he began exploring the community online, according to a now-deleted interview published on the University of Pennsylvania’s campus events blog in 2018. From there, the interview said, he wanted to start creating games himself and taught himself to code in high school.
根据2018年宾夕法尼亚大学校园活动博客上发表的一篇现已删除的采访，曼吉奥尼对电脑游戏的兴趣始于儿时，当时他就已经开始在网上探索电脑游戏社区。采访中说，从那时起，他想自己制作游戏，并且在高中自学了编程。
“That’s why I’m a computer science major now, that’s how I got into it,” Mr. Mangione said in the interview. “I just really wanted to make games.”
“所以我现在主修计算机科学专业，我就是这样进入这个行业的，”曼吉奥尼在采访中说。“我真的很想做游戏。”
After college, Mr. Mangione worked for or had internships with several tech companies, according to his LinkedIn profile and a former employer.
根据曼吉奥尼在领英上的个人资料和他一位前雇主的说法，他大学毕业后曾在几家科技公司工作或实习。
Mr. Mangione’s profile said that he had worked as a software engineer at TrueCar, an online marketplace based in Santa Monica, Calif. The company said in a statement that he had not been an employee since 2023.
曼吉奥尼的个人资料显示，他曾在加州圣莫尼卡的在线市场TrueCar担任软件工程师。该公司在一份声明中表示，他自2023年以来就已不是该公司的员工。
In recent years, Mr. Mangione lived for six months in Honolulu in a “co-living” space called Surfbreak that caters to remote workers.
近年来，曼吉奥尼在檀香山一个名为冲浪停歇(Surfbreak)的“共同生活”空间住了六个月，该空间为远程工作者提供服务。
R.J. Martin, the founder of Surfbreak, said that Mr. Mangione was well liked and respected, according to a friend who was acting as a spokesman for Mr. Martin.
冲浪停歇的创始人R·J·马丁通过一位充当发言人的朋友表示，曼吉奥尼很受人们喜爱和尊重。
But a painful and debilitating back injury kept Mr. Mangione from surfing and impinged on his romantic life, the spokesman added, and after Mr. Mangione moved away and underwent surgery he stopped replying to his Surfbreak friends.
但这位发言人还说，曼吉奥尼背部受伤，疼痛和虚弱使他无法冲浪，也影响了他的感情生活，自从他搬出去并且做了手术之后，就不再回复他在冲浪停歇结识朋友的消息了。
Mr. Mangione was cited for trespassing while he was living in Hawaii, according to court records, which said that he had failed to observe a sign at the Nu’uanu Pali Lookout on Oahu on Nov. 12, 2023. He was carrying an ID with a Towson, Md., address and was fined $100.
根据法庭记录，曼吉奥尼在夏威夷居住期间因非法侵入而被传唤，法庭记录显示，2023年11月12日，他未能注意到瓦胡岛上努阿努帕里大风口的一个标志牌。他被罚款100美元，当时他随身携带的身份证件上的住址是在马里兰州陶森。
His internet trail hinted at pain both physical and mental.
他在互联网留下的记录暗示了他在身心上遭受的双重痛苦。
In January, Mr. Mangione left a review of a book containing the rambling manifesto of Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber, on GoodReads, a social media site for bookworms.
今年1月，在读书人士的社交媒体网站GoodReads上，曼吉奥尼对一本书发表了评论，书中收录了“炸弹客”泰德·卡辛斯基的长篇宣言。
“It’s easy to quickly and thoughtless write this off as the manifesto of a lunatic, in order to avoid facing some of the uncomfortable problems it identifies,” Mr. Mangione wrote of the document. “But it’s simply impossible to ignore how prescient many of his predictions about modern society turned out.”
“为了不去面对其中所指出的一些令人不适的问题，人们很容易迅速、不假思索地将其视为疯子的宣言，”曼吉奥尼在谈到这份文件时写道。“但他对现代社会的许多预测是多么有先见之明，这是无法忽视的。”
One of Mr. Mangione’s favorite quotes, listed on GoodReads, was, “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society,” from Jiddu Krishnamurti, the religious philosopher and teacher.
曼吉奥尼在GoodReads上列出的最爱名言之一是“适应一个病入膏肓的社会并不是衡量健康的标准”，这句话出自宗教哲学家兼教师吉杜·克里希那穆提。
The GoodReads page also included self-help books about health and the human body, including, “Crooked: Outwitting the Back Pain Industry and Getting on the Road to Recovery.”
他的GoodReads页面上还标记了有关健康和身体的自助书籍，其中包括《弯曲：避开背痛治疗行业的陷阱，走上康复之路》(Crooked: Outwitting the Back Pain Industry and Getting on the Road to Recovery)。
A social media account that appears to belong to Mr. Mangione contains an X-ray image of a spine reinforced with surgical implants. The X-ray shows a spinal fusion, a procedure that uses screws and rods to fuse two levels of the spine to ease what can be serious pain, according to Hasit Mehta, a professor at New York Medical College.
一个似乎属于曼吉奥尼的社交媒体账户包含一张用外科植入物加固的脊柱的X光片图像。纽约医学院教授海喜德·梅塔表示，这张X光片表明此人曾做过脊柱融合术，这是一种使用螺钉和杆将两段椎骨连接在一起的手术，用于缓解可能很严重的疼痛。
Mr. Cranston, the school friend, said that he was forwarded a message this year from Mr. Mangione’s family. The family reported that it had not heard from Mr. Mangione in several months after he underwent surgery, and relatives were hoping his friends might know where he was.
曼吉奥尼在学校的朋友克兰斯顿说，他今年收到了由他人转发、来自曼吉奥尼家人的一条消息，称他手术后几个月，家里人都没有收到他的消息。亲戚们希望能从他的朋友那里得知他的下落。
Few friends, if any, did until his arrest on Monday morning.
直到周一早上他被捕之前，几乎没有人知道他此前一直身在何处。
Mr. Saunders, the high school friend, was shocked by the news, but was skeptical that his classmate had suffered a psychological break.
他的高中好友桑德斯对这一消息感到震惊，但他不太相信自己的这位同学出现了精神崩溃。
“I would be surprised if it was some kind of mental breakdown,” he said.
“如果是某种精神崩溃，我会很意外，”他说。
For now, investigators will be looking for any additional clues that might link Mr. Mangione to the shooting. One thing they were examining was the handwritten manifesto that he had in his possession when he was arrested, according to a senior law enforcement official.
目前而言，调查人员将寻找任何可能将他与枪击案联系起来的线索。据一位高级执法官员称，他们正在调查的一个方面是曼吉奥尼被捕时随身携带的一份手写宣言。
The 262-word handwritten document begins with the writer appearing to take responsibility for the murder, according to a senior law enforcement official who saw the document. It notes that as UnitedHealthcare’s market capitalization has grown, American life expectancy has not.
据一位看过宣言的高级执法官员称，作者在这篇262词的文章中首先表示愿为谋杀负责。文中称，联合健康保险公司的市值在增长，美国人的预期寿命却没有延长。
“To save you a lengthy investigation, I state plainly that I wasn’t working with anyone,” the writer wrote. The note condemns companies that “continue to abuse our country for immense profit because the American public has allowed them to get away with it.”
“为了帮你们避免一场漫长的调查，我可以明确表示，我没有和任何人合作，”作者写道。文章谴责企业“不断从我们国家榨取暴利，因为美国公众一直没有去追究它们”。
At Mr. Mangione’s arraignment in Pennsylvania on Monday, a judge asked him whether he was in contact with his family.
周一，在宾夕法尼亚州对曼吉奥尼的提审中，一名法官问他是否与家人保持联系。
“Until recently,” he replied.
“直到最近才有联系，”他回答道。
2024年12月10日
China’s antimonopoly regulator announced on Monday that it was investigating potential violations of antitrust law by Nvidia, the American company that makes a vast majority of the computer chips that power artificial intelligence systems.
中国反垄断监管机构周一宣布正在对美国公司英伟达可能违反反垄断法的行为展开调查，该公司生产了大部分用于驱动人工智能系统的计算机芯片。
The inquiry, a rare move by Beijing, comes a week after the Biden administration expanded curbs on the sale of advanced American technology to China. In the days since, the Chinese government announced that it would ban the export of several rare minerals to the United States and imposed sanctions on more than a dozen U.S. defense firms and defense industry executives.
进行此类调查对北京来说十分罕见。一周前，拜登政府扩大了对中国出售美国先进技术的限制。在那之后的数天，中国政府宣布将禁止向美国出口几种稀有矿物，并对十多家美国国防公司和国防工业高管实施制裁。
Together, the moves by Beijing signal its willingness to engage in supply chain warfare as the policy contest over trade and the control of technology escalates between the world’s two largest economies.
随着世界两大经济体在贸易和技术控制方面的政策竞争不断升级，北京这些举动表明了中国愿意参与供应链战争之中。
The battle has made A.I. chips into one of the world’s most sought-after technologies, and Nvidia has cornered the market, accounting for 90 percent of global sales by the end of last year. Nvidia’s dominance helped it become one of the most valuable companies in the world over the past year.
这场战斗使人工智能芯片成为全球最令人趋之若鹜的技术之一，而英伟达已占领了相关市场。截至去年年底，其销售额占全球销售额的90%。英伟达在该领域的主导地位令该公司在过去一年中成为全球市值最高的公司之一。
Graham Webster, an academic focused on geopolitics and technology at Stanford University, said China had a variety of tools it could use to go after foreign companies and show its opposition to U.S. policy. “Nvidia is a pretty obvious target,” he added.
斯坦福大学专注于地缘政治和技术的学者格雷厄姆·韦伯斯特表示，中国有多种工具可用来来针对外国公司，并借此表明对美国政策的反对。“英伟达是一个非常明显的目标，”他补充说。
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said on Monday that it was investigating Nvidia for violating commitments made during its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, a company that makes computer networking equipment. The Chinese regulator approved Nvidia’s acquisition of the company in 2020 with conditions to prevent anti-competitive practices and ensure supplies to China.
中国国家市场监督管理总局周一表示，由于英伟达涉嫌违反收购计算机网络设备制造商迈络思科技时做出的承诺，该机构对英伟达展开调查。2020年，中国监管机构批准了英伟达对该公司的收购，但附带了防止反竞争行为和确保对中国供应的条件。
Nvidia said in a statement that it was “happy to answer” questions from China’s regulators. “We work hard to provide the best products we can in every region and honor our commitments everywhere we do business,” the statement said.
英伟达在声明中表示，该公司“很乐意回答”中国监管机构的问题。“我们努力在每个地区提供最佳产品，并在我们开展业务的任何地方履行我们的承诺，”声明说。
As the Biden administration has progressively tightened restrictions on Nvidia’s chip sales to China, the company has responded by offering less powerful versions of its chips to the Chinese market.
拜登政府逐步收紧对英伟达向中国销售芯片的限制，该公司的应对措施是向中国市场提供性能较低的芯片。
Officials in Washington, in trying to prevent Chinese companies from buying advanced chips and the machines to make them, say that the technology is essential not just for smartphones and chatbots but also for military superiority.
华盛顿的官员试图阻止中国公司购买先进芯片及其制造机器，称这项技术不仅对智能手机和聊天机器人至关重要，而且对军事优势也至关重要。
随着英伟达芯片成为人工智能发展的核心，该公司市值飙升。
Chinese tech companies have resorted to stockpiling the chips, while also turning to smugglers and front companies to secure supplies. At the same time, Beijing is pouring large sums of money into its own chip companies in an attempt to make its tech sector less reliant on foreign technology.
中国科技公司只得囤积芯片，同时也转向走私者和幌子公司来确保供应。与此同时，北京向本国芯片公司投入大量资金，试图减少科技行业对外国技术的依赖。
“Well before the Biden administration, the Chinese government wanted greater self-reliance on key technologies,” said Mr. Webster, a scholar at the program on geopolitics, technology and governance at Stanford.
“早在拜登政府执政之前，中国政府就希望在关键技术上实现更大程度的自力更生，”斯坦福大学地缘政治、技术和治理项目学者韦伯斯特说。
The Biden administration has been considering further restrictions on global sales of A.I. chips that could affect Nvidia and its competitors. One new rule could impose more requirements on companies from the United States and other countries when shipping advanced A.I. chips to China, to try to ensure they are not breaking existing U.S. rules, according to two people familiar with the plans who were not authorized to speak publicly.
拜登政府一直在考虑进一步对人工智能芯片的全球销售设限，这可能会影响英伟达及其竞争对手。据两位未获授权公开发言的知情人士透露，一项新规定可能会对美国和其他国家的公司在向中国运送先进的人工智能芯片时施加更多要求，以确保这些公司没有违反现有的美国规定。
The new rule would build on letters that the U.S. government sent to Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, two of the world’s largest chip companies, ordering them to stop sending advanced chips to China. The Biden administration had discovered that TSMC made some components for A.I. chips produced by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company, in violation of export controls.
美国政府曾致函全球最大的两家芯片公司三星和台积电，要求它们停止向中国运送先进芯片，新规将以这些信函为基础。拜登政府此前发现，台积电为中国电信公司华为生产的人工智能芯片制造了一些部件，违反了出口管制。
Another pending rule from Washington could impose licensing requirements and caps on the number of chips that could be sold in certain countries, as well as security standards for those buying larger clusters of A.I. chips.
华盛顿的另一项尚未出台的规定可能会对在某些国家销售的芯片施加许可要求和可出售数量上限，并针对购买大量人工智能芯片的公司制定安全标准。
Alan Estevez, a U.S. Department of Commerce official who oversees export controls, declined to comment on the pending rules, but said that the department was continuing to investigate how TSMC chips could end up in Huawei’s A.I. products.
美国商务部负责出口管制的官员艾伦·埃斯特维兹拒绝就尚未出台的规定置评，但表示商务部正在继续调查台积电芯片如何可能最终被用于制造华为的人工智能产品。
The Chinese government’s antitrust investigation of Nvidia is not the first time Beijing has targeted American chipmakers.
中国政府对英伟达的反垄断调查并不是北京首次针对美国芯片制造商展开行动。
In October, a think tank with ties to China’s internet regulatory agency called for a review of Intel, the American tech company, for selling products that “constantly harmed” China’s national security and interests. The last company subject to a cybersecurity review was the American chip maker Micron, which was ultimately cut off from supplying chips to a significant portion of the Chinese market. Another American chipmaker, Qualcomm, paid a $975 million fine in 2015 after the Chinese government investigated it for antimonopoly violations.
10月，一家与中国互联网监管机构有关联的智库呼吁对美国科技公司英特尔进行审查，原因是该公司销售的产品“不断损害”中国的国家安全和利益。上一家接受网络安全审查的公司是美国芯片制造商美光，该公司最终被禁止向中国市场很大一部分供应芯片。2015年，另一家美国芯片制造商高通因违反反垄断法而受到中国政府调查后，遭罚款60.88亿人民币。
Last week, Chinese industry groups representing companies in a range of business sectors, including semiconductors and auto manufacturing, called for Chinese companies to purchase more chips domestically or from countries other than the United States.
上周，代表半导体和汽车制造等多个行业公司的中国行业团体呼吁中国公司在国内或从美国以外的国家购买更多芯片。
“American chip products are no longer safe and reliable, and related Chinese industries will have to be cautious in purchasing American chips,” the China Semiconductor Industry Association said, following the U.S. decision to impose export controls.
在美国决定实施出口管制后，中国半导体行业协会表示：“美国芯片产品不再安全、不再可靠，中国相关行业将不得不谨慎采购美国芯片。”
As Nvidia has grown, revenue from China has become less important to the company overall. During its most recent fiscal year, Nvidia’s sales there fell to 14 percent of its total business from 19 percent.
随着英伟达发展壮大，来自中国的利润对公司整体的重要性开始下降。在最近一个财年，英伟达在华销售额占总业务的比例从19%降至14%。
But no Chinese company has been able to make chips as advanced as Nvidia’s.
但没有一家中国公司能够制造出像英伟达那样先进的芯片。
“China still wants Nvidia technology, in part or in whole,” said Kevin Xu, the U.S.-based founder of Interconnected Capital, a hedge fund that invests in artificial intelligence technologies. “Its market share dominance was well established in China long before export controls.”
“中国仍然想要英伟达的技术，无论是部分还是全部，”投资人工智能技术的对冲基金“互联资本”的美国创始人凯文·徐（音）表示。 “早在出口管制实施之前，英伟达就已在中国牢牢占据了市场份额。”
The U.S. Justice Department is investigating Nvidia’s sales practices and its most recent acquisitions. The U.S. inquiry is largely concerned with the company’s power to determine how a scarce but essential technology is being allocated.
美国司法部正在调查英伟达的销售行为及其最近的收购行为。美国的调查主要关注该公司在决定如何分配一项稀缺但重要技术时拥有的能力。
Competitors and customers around the world have complained about Nvidia’s ownership of critical pieces of the A.I. supply chain. In addition to making the chips crucial to building A.I. systems, the company controls software that manages data centers and sells some of the leading equipment that controls high-performance computers.
世界各地的竞争对手和客户都抱怨英伟达拥有人工智能供应链的关键部分。除了制造对构建人工智能系统至关重要的芯片外，该公司还控制着管理数据中心的软件，并销售一些控制高性能计算机的领先设备。
2024年12月10日
Alarm is rising among multinational companies doing business with China about Beijing’s decision last week to order a trade embargo on the export of four critical minerals to the United States. The central subject of concern is a provision extending the ban to companies in other countries that transfer minerals to American firms after acquiring them from China.
中国上周决定对四种关键矿产出口到美国实施贸易禁令，与中国有业务往来的跨国公司对此愈发感到担忧。担忧的核心问题是其中一条规定，将禁令扩大到了其他国家的公司，也就是从中国获得矿产后转运到美国的那些公司。
The order is the first time China has included a broad ban on so-called transshipment in a government regulation on exports. It also underlines Beijing’s readiness to escalate its tit-for-tat response to the tougher trade policies promised by President-elect Donald J. Trump.
该禁令是中国首次在政府出口法规中纳入对所谓转运的全面禁止。这也凸显出，对于候任总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺的更强硬的贸易政策，北京准备加大针锋相对的回应力度。
China has long condemned attempts by other countries, particularly the United States, to impose similar limits on transshipment by companies outside their borders.
中国长期以来一直谴责其他国家，特别是美国，试图对其境外公司的转运施加类似的限制。
The ban by Beijing threatens to divide global supply chains further, by forcing companies to choose whether products with certain materials and components can be supplied only to the American market or only to the Chinese market.
北京的禁令可能会进一步分割全球供应链，迫使企业选择是将包含某些材料和部件的产品只供应给美国市场，还是只供应给中国市场。
China has been trying to persuade companies elsewhere, particularly in Europe, that they should invest and build supply chains in China, not the United States.
中国一直试图说服其他地方的公司，特别是欧洲的公司，应该在中国投资并建立供应链，而不是在美国。
“The move marks a significant escalation of the ongoing tech war between the U.S. and China, and E.U. businesses are increasingly worried about being caught in the crossfire,” said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.
“此举标志着美国和中国之间正在进行的技术战的显著升级，欧盟企业越来越担心陷入交叉火力之中，”中国欧盟商会主席彦辞(Jens Eskelund)说。
The mineral embargo is the latest piece of an extensive initiative by China over the past nearly two decades to replace imports with domestic production.
过去近20年来，中国采取了一系列广泛举措，用国内生产替代进口，矿产禁运是其中的最新举措。
On Dec. 3, the same day the Ministry of Commerce published the minerals ban, four government-linked trade associations directed companies to avoid buying American computer chips. Two days later, the Ministry of Finance unveiled a draft plan to overhaul the bidding on government contracts, heavily favoring companies that produce in China.
12月3日，商务部发布矿物禁令的同一天，四个与政府有关的贸易协会指示企业避免购买美国的计算机芯片。两天后，财政部公布了一项改革政府合同招标的计划草案，对在中国生产的公司非常有利。
Joerg Wuttke, a former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said the closest China had previously come to a prohibition of indirect shipments was last May. But that applied to only one company, an American importer of custom molded plastic parts from China.
中国欧盟商会前主席伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)表示，中国此前最接近禁止转运的行动是在去年5月。但那只适用于一家从中国进口定制塑料部件的美国进口商。
In yet another indication that the Chinese government is ready to take a tough stance in response to U.S. policy, it said on Monday that it had started an antimonopoly investigation into Nvidia, the American giant that dominates the world’s market for the most advanced chips needed for artificial intelligence.
另一个表明中国准备对美国政策采取强硬立场的迹象是，政府在周一表示，已经开始对美国巨头英伟达进行反垄断调查，该公司在全球人工智能所需的最先进芯片市场上占据主导地位。
The volley of measures could also signal Beijing’s willingness to make a deal with the United States.
这一系列措施也可能表明北京愿意与美国达成协议。
The spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry, He Jiandao, defended the new regulations on minerals exports as “a reasonable measure” and said China was “willing to strengthen dialogue with all parties in the field of export controls and jointly maintain the stability and smooth flow of global production and supply chains.”
中国商务部发言人何剑道为矿产出口新规辩护称，这是“合理的措施”，并表示中国“愿意在出口管制领域加强与各方的对话，共同维护全球生产和供应链的稳定和畅通”。
The Biden administration has imposed a series of increasingly broad restrictions on the export to China of “dual-use” products, which are those with civilian and military applications. These restrictions have included transshipment bans.
拜登政府对向中国出口“两用”产品实施了一系列越来越广泛的限制，这些产品具有民用和军用用途。这些限制包括对转运的禁止。
On Dec. 2, Washington added more than 100 Chinese companies to a restricted trade list and banned the sale to China of some of the fastest semiconductors and the equipment to make them. The administration portrayed the action as a technical adjustment to address problems like the creation of shell companies to bypass previously imposed sanctions against existing enterprises.
12月2日，华盛顿将100多家中国公司加入限制贸易名单，并禁止向中国出售一些最快的半导体和制造这些半导体的设备。政府称这一行动是技术性调整，意在解决某些问题，比如通过创建空壳公司来绕过此前对现有企业实施的制裁。
China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed the minerals embargo on Tuesday in response to the latest of these restrictions. “Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above provisions and transfers or provides relevant dual-use items originating in the People’s Republic of China to organizations or individuals in the United States will be held accountable according to law,” said the ministry’s order, using China’s official name.
中国商务部周二实施了矿产出口禁令以回应这些最新的限制措施。“任何国家或地区的组织或个人违反上述规定，向美国的组织或个人转让或提供原产于中华人民共和国的相关两用物项，将依法追究责任，”该部门发布命令称。
Export embargoes on critical minerals have a long history in international relations.
在国际关系中，对关键矿产实施出口禁令由来已久。
When China halted the export of “rare earth” metals to Japan in 2010 during a territorial dispute, the Commerce Ministry gathered senior managers from rare earth exporters and ordered them not to ship directly to Japan and also not to increase shipments to other countries that might then reship the metals to Japan. But the ministry never published any regulation that imposed the embargo or that banned transshipment.
2010年，在一场领土争端中，中国停止了对日本的“稀土”金属出口。当时，中国商务部召集稀土出口商高管，命令他们不要直接向日本出口，也不要增加向其他国家的出口，因为这些国家可能会将稀土再出口到日本。但该部从未公布任何实施禁令或禁止转运的规定。
In 1973, Arab countries imposed a six-month embargo on oil shipments to the United States in response to American support for Israel during a Mideast war that year, contributing to a quadrupling of gasoline prices. And in August 1941, the United States, in response to Japan’s aggression on China, placed an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan, four months before Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.
1973年，阿拉伯国家对美国实施了为期六个月的石油贸易禁令，以回应美国在当年的中东战争中对以色列的支持，导致汽油价格翻了两番。1941年8月，在日本袭击珍珠港的四个月前，美国针对日本对中国的侵略，对日本实施了石油和汽油出口禁令。
China’s decision to impose its first broad transshipment ban could prove more important than the actual critical minerals embargo. When the Commerce Ministry issued the embargo last week, it chose minerals, such as gallium and germanium, that were used in only a few narrow categories of semiconductors. Some companies already have stockpiles in anticipation of a Chinese ban.
中国首次实施广泛转运禁令的决定本身可能比实际的关键矿产禁令更重要。商务部上周发布的禁令选择了镓和锗等仅用于少数几类半导体的矿产。由于预计会有中国的禁令，一些公司已经准备了库存。
Still, China dominates the global mining and refining of those minerals, as well as of graphite and antimony, the other two minerals embargoed last week.
尽管如此，中国仍主导着这些矿产，以及上周被禁运的另外两种矿产石墨和锑的全球开采和提炼。
In addition to the four minerals, the export embargo also includes “superhard materials,” a category of chemical compounds for which China is a leading producer, often using minerals mined mainly within its borders.
除了这四种矿物，出口禁令还包括“超硬材料”，中国是这类化合物的主要生产国，通常使用主要在其境内开采的矿物。
Like the critical minerals, superhard materials have applications in the manufacture of semiconductors. Some of them, notably compounds that include tungsten, are also used in munitions.
像重要的矿物一样，超硬材料在半导体制造中也有应用。其中一些，特别是含钨的化合物，也用于制造军火。
China has been pouring money into the development of a domestic semiconductor industry. The country is now a leading manufacturer of the semiconductors used in cars and other high-volume applications. But Chinese companies are still struggling to make the fastest semiconductors, and the Biden administration has restricted the export to China of the fastest 5 percent or so of the world’s semiconductors, which are used in military applications as well as in artificial intelligence.
中国一直在投入大量资金发展国内半导体产业。该国目前在用于汽车和其他大规模应用的半导体的制造上居于领先地位。但中国公司制造最快的半导体方面仍然面临困难，拜登政府已经限制向中国出口世界上5%左右最快的半导体，这些半导体用于军事和人工智能。
China’s critical minerals embargo is “a direct threat to Japanese and European interests to push them away from the U.S. — with the hope and expectation the Trump team will further that objective,” said Susan C. Schwab, who was the United States trade representative during President George W. Bush’s second term. “Still, I’m not certain this is the wisest move for a government seeking to reassure potential foreign investors.”
中国对关键矿产的禁运“直接威胁到日本和欧洲的利益，以求迫使它们远离美国，而且中国希望并预期特朗普团队会推进这个目标”，在乔治·W·布什总统第二任期内担任美国贸易代表的苏珊·C·施瓦布说。“不过，对于一个寻求安抚潜在外国投资者的政府来说，我不确定这是最明智的举措。”
JULIAN E. BARNES, ANA SWANSON
2024年12月10日
The Commerce Department has traditionally focused on promoting the interests of American business and increasing U.S. exports abroad. But in recent years, it has taken on a national security role, working to defend the country by restricting exports of America’s most powerful computer chips.
美国商务部传统上的工作重点是促进美国企业利益、增加美国的海外出口。但近年来，商务部承担起维护国家安全的作用，通过限制美国能力最强的计算机芯片的出口来保护国家。
While the Trump administration is likely to remake much of the Biden administration’s economic policy, with a renewed focus on broad tariffs, it is unlikely to roll back the Commerce Department’s evolution.
虽然即将上任的特朗普政府可能会调整拜登政府的大部分经济政策，将重点再次放在大范围提高关税上，但商务部的职责不太可能倒退。
“I’m truthfully not terribly worried that the Trump administration will undo all the great work we’ve done,” Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary, said in an interview. “Number one, it’s at its core national security, which I hope we can all agree on. But two, it is the direction that they were going in.”
“我其实并不担心特朗普政府会把我们所有的伟大功绩毁掉，”商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多在接受采访时说。“第一，这些工作的核心是国家安全，在这点上我希望我们意见一致。但是，第二，这是他们开启的方向。”
It was the first Trump administration that took the initial steps toward the Commerce Department’s evolution, Ms. Raimondo noted, with its decision to put the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei on the “entity list.” Companies on the list are deemed a national security concern, and transfers of technology to them are restricted.
雷蒙多指出，首届特朗普政府决定将中国电信设备公司华为列入“实体名单”，为商务部的演变迈出了第一步。实体名单上的公司被视为有国家安全风险，因此美国政府限制向它们转让技术。
Ms. Raimondo came into the commerce job focused on confronting the challenge of China by building upon the Trump administration’s actions.
雷蒙多担任商务部长后，一直把注意力放在应对中国的挑战方面，在特朗普政府行动的基础上开展工作。
She has overseen a significant expansion of U.S. economic and technology restrictions against China. The Biden administration transformed the tough but sometimes erratic actions the Trump administration had taken toward Beijing into more sweeping and systematic limits on shipping advanced technology to China.
在她的监督下，美国针对中国的经济和技术限制大幅扩大。特朗普政府对中国采取严厉的行动，但有时难以预测，拜登政府将其转变为更全面、更系统地限制向中国出口先进技术。
The department now imposes export controls on critical artificial intelligence chips in order to slow China’s military modernization.
商务部现在对关键的人工智能芯片采取出口管制措施，以放慢中国军事现代化的步伐。
The Commerce Department has also been involved in examining apps and software for national security risks, banning Chinese electric vehicles from U.S. roads out of concerns they will collect Americans’ data, and regulating A.I. to prevent the spread of misinformation.
商务部也参与审查应用程序和软件的国家安全风险；禁止中国的电动汽车在美国的道路上行驶，以防它们收集美国人的数据；对人工智能进行监管，以防止错误信息的传播。
The expanding role of the department is a recognition of how much economics, intelligence and defense have become intertwined.
商务部不断扩大的作用表明，经济、情报和国防已在很大程度上交织在一起。
Ms. Raimondo contended that much of the national security establishment remains stuck in a Cold War mind-set. Intelligence on Russia, she said, is exquisite. But to reorient to a challenge from China, she said that military, intelligence and economics must be more closely tied together.
雷蒙多认为，国家安全机构的大部分仍停留在冷战思维模式中。有关俄罗斯的情报非常精细，她说。但她表示，为了应对来自中国的挑战，必须将军事、情报和经济更紧密地结合在一起。
“One of my biggest takeaways from my four years in the cabinet is that we all in the U.S. government need to fundamentally broaden the way we think about America’s national security,” Ms. Raimondo said.
“我在行政部门四年工作中的最大心得之一是，我们美国政府里的所有人都需要从根本上拓宽我们对国家安全的思考方式，”雷蒙多说。
Ms. Raimondo was speaking on the sidelines of the Reagan National Defense Forum, an annual security conference in Simi Valley, Calif., where she had delivered remarks on competition with China and the importance of rebuilding American semiconductor manufacturing through the $39 billion in federal funding that Congress authorized under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act.
雷蒙多这些话是在里根国防论坛的间隙发表的，该论坛是在加利福尼亚州西米谷举行的年度安全会议，她在会上发表了讲话，内容涉及与中国的竞争，以及重振美国半导体制造业的重要性，国会2022年通过的《芯片和科学法》为这项工作授权390亿美元的联邦资金。
The Commerce Department has faced some criticism about whether it is the agency best equipped to restrict and regulate companies for national security ends.
在商务部究竟是不是为国家安全目的而限制和监管公司的最佳机构这个问题上，它已面临一些批评。
In a report issued late last year, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee cited complaints by current and former officials that the Bureau of Industry and Security, the division in the Commerce Department that oversees export controls, “struggles to achieve its national security mission because it sits within the Department of Commerce, which is designed to increase exports.”
在去年年底发布的一份报告中，众议院外交事务委员会的共和党人主席引用了现任和前任官员的埋怨，称商务部负责监督出口管制的工业和安全局“难以完成其国家安全使命，因为它隶属于商务部，而商务部的使命是增加出口”。
Other critics have pushed the Biden administration to take even more stringent actions against China, arguing that Beijing’s access to advanced chips that can create artificial intelligence, crack codes and develop new weaponry poses a significant security threat. Some analysts said that the export controls the Biden administration issued on Monday continued carve-outs that might allow U.S. businesses to continue to ship some products to companies in China that are involved in efforts to develop advanced chips.
有些批评人士已要求拜登政府对中国采取更严厉的做法，他们声称，让中国获得能创造人工智能、破解密码、开发新武器的先进芯片已对美国国家安全构成相当大的威胁。一些分析人士称，拜登政府上周一宣布的出口管制延续了豁免做法，可能会允许美国企业继续向参与开发先进芯片的中国公司输送某些产品。
Ms. Raimondo acknowledged that the balance between promoting exports and controlling exports critical to national security was difficult.
雷蒙多承认，在促进出口与控制对国家安全至关重要的产品出口之间找到平衡十分困难。
But she said that calls for more expansive controls ignored the views of allies. She said it was critical to work in concert with partners who may have equivalent technology to the United States, to make sure American businesses are not cut off from trading with China if other countries continue their exports.
但她说，要求扩大管制范围的人忽视了盟友们的看法。她表示，与可能拥有与美国同等技术的伙伴携手合作至关重要，这是为了确保如果其他国家继续向中国出口同类产品，美国企业不被排除在这些交易外。
“We should think of export controls as a precision strike,” she said. “And in the same way that we wouldn’t go into battle without our allies, export controls aren’t effective unless you do it in concert with allies.”
“我们应该把出口管制作为精确打击来考虑，”她说。“就像我们不会在没有盟友参与的情况下投入战斗一样，除非与盟友协同作战，否则出口管制就不会有效。”
Ms. Raimondo’s assertion that economic issues are core to national security is increasingly the common wisdom in Washington. China’s control over global supply chains for minerals has given it a powerful weapon it can wield against the United States. And some national security experts say that China’s work on technologies like A.I. and supercomputing could allow it to leap ahead of the United States in certain military capabilities.
雷蒙多认为经济问题是国家安全的核心，这个看法已日益成为美国政府的共识。中国对全球矿产品供应链的控制使其拥有一种能够用来对付美国的强大武器。一些国家安全专家认为，中国在人工智能和超级计算等技术方面的工作可能会让中国在某些军事能力上超越美国。
While it is not entirely clear what Mr. Trump’s policy toward Beijing in his second administration will be, some of the people he has tapped for his administration have been China hawks.
虽然目前还不完全清楚特朗普在第二次执政期间将对中国采取什么政策，但他提名的政府官员中，有些人一直是对华鹰派。
A policy brief published this week by researchers at the Peterson Institute of International Economics argued that the U.S. government had dramatically increased its use of export controls and related tools in recent years. Mr. Trump added three times as many Chinese entities to national security-related lists in his first administration than the total of presidents over the previous 16 years. And the Biden administration added even more Chinese entities to those lists than Mr. Trump did, the brief said.
彼得森国际经济研究所的研究人员在本周发布的一份政策简报中指出，美国政府近年来大幅增加了出口管制和相关工具的使用。第一次执政期间，特朗普添加到与国家安全有关的实体名单上的中国企业数量是之前16年历届总统添加总量的三倍。简报称，拜登政府添加到这个实体名单上的中国企业数量甚至比特朗普还多。
There are few moves by the U.S. that can get Beijing’s attention more quickly than placing restrictions on the kinds of high-end chips it can access.
美国对中国能获得的高端芯片种类设限几乎是最能迅速引起中国政府注意的举措。
In diplomatic meetings, Chinese officials have repeatedly pressed their American counterparts to relax the export controls. The answer during the Biden administration has been that while the U.S. wanted to cooperate on trade, it would not budge on the highest-end artificial intelligence chips.
中国官员在与美国同行举行外交会晤时已多次向美国官员施压，要求放松出口管制。拜登政府的官员的回答是，虽然美国希望在贸易方面与中国合作，但在最高端的人工智能芯片问题上不会让步。
Ms. Raimondo said the Trump administration should continue that posture. Artificial intelligence has changed the game, and America’s dominance of that technology over China is a key advantage, she said. The strategy is to ensure that the U.S. and its allies keep control of the most dangerous technology, and deny it to China, at least for a time.
雷蒙多表示，特朗普政府应该继续这种姿态。她说，人工智能已改变了游戏规则，美国在该技术上的主导地位是美国对中国的一个关键优势。美国的策略应该是确保美国及其盟友继续控制最危险的技术，至少在一段时间内不让中国掌握这些技术。
“You can’t make a deal that deals away our national security,” she said. “That would be extraordinarily dangerous and reckless.”
“不能以牺牲我们国家安全的方式做交易，”她说。“那是极其危险和鲁莽的做法。”
2024年12月10日
China’s ruling Politburo loosened the country’s overall monetary policy on Monday for the first time in 14 years, the latest in a series of measures aimed at recharging economic growth and stopping a broad decline in prices.
中国最高权力机构中共中央政治局周一宣布放宽货币政策，这是14年来的第一次，也是政治局为刺激经济增长、阻止物价普遍下跌所采取的一系列措施中的最新举措。
In a statement, the Politburo said that it would embrace a “moderately loose” policy, shifting away from a longstanding “prudent” stance — a signal that the country’s central bank will be more willing to reduce interest rates in the coming year. It also means the central bank may be more open to commercial banks holding smaller reserves while extending more and larger loans.
政治局在声明中称将实施“适度宽松”的货币政策，改变了其长期以来的“稳健”立场。这是一个信号，表明中国央行明年将更积极地降低利率，也意味着央行可能会对降低商业银行存款准备金、允许它们发放更多数额更大的贷款持更开放的态度。
The Politburo also called for a more proactive fiscal policy, which means that the government will be more willing to increase its own spending. It further suggested that the government would “strengthen extraordinary countercyclical measures,” an indication that the authorities may plan further steps to halt the erosion in economic growth rates.
政治局还提出要实施更加积极的财政政策，意味着政府将更愿意增加自身的支出。政治局进一步表示，政府将“加强超常规逆周期调节”，表明当局可能计划采取进一步措施来阻止经济增长率的下降。
The Politburo said that it was approving several measures at the same time in order to deliver a policy “combination punch” to address China’s economic challenges.
政治局表示，采取这些多管齐下的措施是为了“打好政策‘组合拳’”，解决中国面临的经济挑战，
Taken together, the steps announced on Monday amounted to a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to a take a stronger hand in addressing the country’s economic weakness.
总体而言，周一宣布的这些措施标志着中国政府罕见地公开承认需要更强有力地应对国内经济疲软。
The Politburo’s announcements came ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference on Wednesday and Thursday, when the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet set the country’s economic agenda for the upcoming year.
政治局的公告发布是在本周三、四的中央经济工作会议之前，中共和国务院将在这个年度会议上制定来年的国家经济议程。
The conference is expected to reaffirm the Politburo’s stance and possibly also call for modest increases in government spending, particularly to help the elderly and very poor. But few economists expect the authorities to expand the budget deficit by enacting a very large increase in government aid to consumers. China has put more emphasis instead lately on helping manufacturers to build more high-tech factories.
预计政治局提出的措施将在今年的中央经济工作会议上得到再次确定，会议可能要求适度增加政府支出，尤其是在帮助老年人和极度贫困人口方面。但几乎没有经济学家认为当局会使用政府向消费者提供大幅补贴的做法来扩大预算赤字。中国近来更加重视帮助制造商建设更多的高技术工厂。
The Politburo issued its statement after stock markets had closed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with prices little changed, but while trading was still underway in Hong Kong. Shares there jumped after the announcement: The Hang Seng Index finished up 2.8 percent, its best day in weeks.
政治局在上海和深圳的股市收盘后宣布了上述举措，这两个股市的股指几乎没有变化，但香港的股市仍在交易中。政治局的声明发布后，香港股市大涨：恒生指数在收盘时上涨了2.8%，这是数周来的最大单日涨幅。
Monday’s statement did not provide many details, including any specific sums of money to be spent or by how much interest rates may change. Even after the economic conference concludes, officials may not enact some large, highly specific policies until the national legislature gathers on March 5 for its annual, roughly weeklong session.
周一宣布的举措中没有太多细节，没有具体的支出金额或利率变化幅度。即使在中央经济工作会议结束之后，官员们可能也不会在明年3月5日之前颁布某些高度具体的大型政策，届时全国人民代表大会将召开为期约一周的年度会议。
The last change in overall monetary policy was on Dec. 3, 2010, with a shift to a “prudent” stance. It was widely seen as a statement that the Chinese economy had rebounded strongly from the global financial crisis.
中国上次调整货币政策是在2010年12月3日，转向“稳健”立场。那次调整被普遍视为中国经济从全球金融危机中强健恢复的迹象。
Many economists inside and outside of China are skeptical that looser monetary policy will turn around the economy. The main problem lies in weak consumer spending: The middle class has lost much of its savings in a real estate crash over the last three years, and many people have become reluctant to spend on things like new cars and restaurant meals.
中国国内外的许多经济学家对放宽货币政策能否扭转经济发展趋势持怀疑态度。中国经济的主要问题在于消费支出疲软：房地产市场在过去三年崩盘，导致中产阶级失去了他们的大部分积蓄，许多人变得不愿意在购买新车、去餐厅就餐等方面花钱。
While the gains in Hong Kong share trading suggested that the Politburo’s action may strengthen mainland markets, the economic benefits may be muted. Chinese households have less than 2 percent of their assets in stocks, versus around 70 percent in real estate.
虽然香港股市当天的上涨表明政治局的决定也许对内地股市来说是利好，但给中国经济带来的好处可能不大。股票在中国家庭资产中的占比不到2%，而房地产约占为70%。
A looser monetary policy may also give a small lift to the bond market, because bond prices rise when interest rates fall. But Chinese households don’t hold many bonds, either — it is mainly banks that hold bonds in China.
宽松的货币政策也可能给债券市场带来小幅提振，因为债券价格会在利率下降时上涨。但中国家庭持有的债券也不多，中国的债券主要由银行持有。
And even if banks have more money to lend at slightly lower interest rates, there’s just not much demand by businesses or consumers to borrow money at all.
即使银行有更多的钱，以更低的利率发放贷款，但企业或消费者也没有太大的借贷需求。
The Politburo’s statement came hours after the government disclosed that consumer prices in November were up 0.2 percent from a year earlier, a smaller increase than analysts expected.
在政治局做出上述宣布的几小时前，政府公布了今年11月份的消费者价格指数，该指数与去年同期相比上涨了0.2%，低于分析师们的预期。
Producer prices — the wholesale prices charged by factories, mines, farms and other enterprises — were down 2.5 percent last month from a year earlier. Broadly falling prices, a phenomenon known as deflation, can be crippling for an economy, as companies and households find it hard to make fixed interest payments on bank loans and bonds.
工厂、矿山、农场和其他企业向生产者收取的批发价格上月同比下降了2.5%。价格普遍下跌是一种被称为通货紧缩的现象，可能会给经济造成严重破坏，因为企业和家庭难以支付银行贷款和债券的固定利息。