The first time China upended the U.S. economy, between 1999 and 2007, it helped erase nearly a quarter of all U.S. manufacturing jobs. Known as the China Shock, it was driven by a singular process — China’s late-1970s transition from Maoist central planning to a market economy, which rapidly moved the country’s labor and capital from collective rural farms to capitalist urban factories. Waves of inexpensive goods from China imploded the economic foundations of places where manufacturing was the main game in town, such as Martinsville, Va., and High Point, N.C., formerly the self-titled sweatshirt and furniture capitals of the world. Twenty years later, those workers haven’t recovered from those job losses. Although places like these are growing again, most job gains are in low-wage industries. A similar story played out in dozens of labor-intensive industries simultaneously: textiles, toys, sporting goods, electronics, plastics and auto parts.

1999年至2007年间，中国首次颠覆美国经济时导致美国制造业近四分之一的就业岗位流失。这场被称为“中国冲击”的现象由一个非同寻常的进程所驱动——中国在20世纪70年代末从毛泽东时代的中央计划经济向市场经济转型，这一转变迅速将中国的劳动力和资本从集体化的农村农场转移到资本主义的城市工厂。来自中国的廉价商品浪潮瓦解了美国许多以制造业为支柱的地方经济基础，比如曾经自诩为世界运动衫之都的弗吉尼亚州马丁斯维尔，以及自诩为世界家具之都的北卡罗来纳州海波因特。二十年过去了，当地劳动者仍未走出失业阴霾。尽管这些地区经济开始复苏，新增岗位却多集中于低薪行业。与此同时，纺织、玩具、体育用品、电子、塑料和汽车零部件等数十个劳动密集型产业也遭遇了类似的命运。

Yet once China’s Mao-to-manufacturing transition was complete, sometime around 2015, the shock stopped building. Since then, U.S. manufacturing employment has rebounded, growing under President Barack Obama, the first Trump term and President Biden.

然而，大约在2015年前后，中国完成了毛泽东式经济到制造业大国的转型，这场冲击开始趋于平缓。此后，美国制造业就业人数开始反弹，在奥巴马总统、特朗普第一任期和拜登总统执政期间都在持续增长。

So why, you might ask, are we still talking about the China Shock? We wish we weren’t. We published the research in 2013, 2014 and 2016, along with our collaborator David Dorn of the University of Zurich, which detailed for the first time how Chinese import competition was devastating parts of America, through permanent declines in employment and earnings. We are here to argue now that policymakers are spending far too much time looking backward, fighting the last war. They should be spending much more time examining what’s emerging as a new China Shock.

那么，你可能会问，为什么我们还在谈论“中国冲击”呢？其实我们也希望不用再谈。我们与苏黎世大学的戴维·多恩合作，在2013年、2014年和2016年发表了研究成果，首次详细阐述了中国进口竞争如何通过导致就业和收入的永久性下降重创美国部分地区。但现在我们在这里要指出的是，政策制定者花费了太多时间回顾过去，执着于打上一场战争。他们要做的应该是把更多精力用来对付正在浮现的新一轮中国冲击。

Spoiler alert: This one could be far worse.

剧透一下：这次冲击可能要严重得多。

China Shock 1.0 was a one-time event. In essence, China figured out how to do what it should have been doing decades earlier. In the United States, that led to unnecessarily painfully job losses. But America was never going to be selling tennis sneakers on Temu or assembling AirPods. China’s manufacturing work force is thought to be well in excess of 100 million, compared with America’s 13 million. It’s bordering on delusional to think the United States can — or should even want to — simultaneously compete with China in semiconductors and tennis sneakers alike.

“中国冲击1.0”是一次性事件。从本质上讲，中国只是明白了如何做它几十年前就应该做的事情。在美国，这导致了不必要的痛苦失业。但美国本来就不会在Temu上卖网球鞋或组装AirPods。中国的制造业劳动力大军据信远超1亿，而美国只有1300万。认为美国能够——甚至应该——同时在半导体和网球鞋等领域与中国竞争，这种想法简直是异想天开。

China Shock 2.0, the one that’s fast approaching, is where China goes from underdog to favorite. Today, it is aggressively contesting the innovative sectors where the United States has long been the unquestioned leader: aviation, A.I., telecommunications, microprocessors, robotics, nuclear and fusion power, quantum computing, biotech and pharma, solar, batteries. Owning these sectors yields dividends: economic spoils from high profits and high-wage jobs; geopolitical heft from shaping the technological frontier; and military prowess from controlling the battlefield. General Motors, Boeing and Intel are American national champions, but they’ve all seen better days and we’re going to miss them if they’re gone. China’s technological vision is already reordering governments and markets in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and increasingly Eastern Europe. Expect this influence to grow as the United States retreats into an isolationist MAGAsphere.

正在加速逼近的“中国冲击2.0”标志着中国从弱者蜕变为强者。如今，中国正强势进军美国长期居于垄断地位的创新领域：航空、人工智能、通信、微处理器、机器人、核能与聚变能、量子计算、生物医药、太阳能、电池技术。掌控这些领域意味着多重红利：高利润与高薪职位创造的经济收益；引领技术前沿获得的地缘政治影响力；掌控未来战场的军事优势。通用汽车、波音和英特尔这些美国的国家旗舰企业虽然辉煌不再，但它们如果真的消失，必将让人体会到它们曾经的举足轻重。中国的技术愿景已在非洲、拉丁美洲、东南亚乃至日益于东欧重塑政府与市场格局。随着美国退守"让美国再次伟大"的孤立主义，中国的影响力预计将进一步增长。

In the 1990s and 2000s, private Chinese businesses, working alongside multinational corporations, turned China into the world’s factory. The new Chinese model is different, with private companies working alongside the Chinese state. China has created an agile, if costly, innovation ecosystem in which local officials such as mayors and governors are rewarded for growth in certain advanced sectors. They had been assessed by total G.D.P. growth, a blunter instrument.

在20世纪90年代和21世纪初，中国的民营企业与跨国公司合作，将中国变成了“世界工厂”。新的中国模式则不同以往，现在是它的民营公司与中国政府合作。中国构建起一套高效灵活却成本高昂的创新生态系统，在这个系统中，市长、省长等地方官员的政绩考核从粗放的GDP总量增长指标转向特定先进产业的增长。

Before it became the site of China’s second-largest producer of electric vehicles, the city of Hefei was the undistinguished capital of a poor hinterland province. By putting up venture funding, taking risks on struggling EV producers and investing in local research and development, Hefei made the leap into the country’s top industrial tier in barely half a decade.

在成为中国第二大电动车生产基地之前，合肥只是贫困内陆省份一座毫不起眼的省会城市。通过设立风投资金，押注困境中的电动车企，并加大对本地研发的投入，合肥在短短五年内就一跃跻身中国的一线工业城市之列。

China has performed this miracle many times over. The world’s largest and most innovative producers of EVs (BYD), EV batteries (CATL), drones (DJI) and solar wafers (LONGi) are all Chinese start-ups, none more than 30 years old. They attained commanding technological and price leadership not because President Xi Jinping decreed it, but because they emerged triumphant from the economic Darwinism that is Chinese industrial policy. The rest of the world is ill prepared to compete with these apex predators. When U.S. policymakers deride China’s industrial policy, they are imagining something akin to the lumbering takeoff of Airbus or the lights going out on Solyndra. They should instead be gazing up at the nimble swarms of DJI drones buzzing over Ukraine.

中国已多次创造此类奇迹。全球最大、最具创新力的电动车制造商（比亚迪）、电动车电池生产商（宁德时代）、无人机企业（大疆）和太阳能硅片制造商（隆基绿能）生产商，都是成立不到30年的初创企业。这些企业之所以能取得压倒性的技术和价格领先地位，并非因为习近平主席下达的指令，而是因为它们在中国工业政策推动下的“经济达尔文主义”中脱颖而出。世界其他国家尚未做好与这些顶级捕食者竞争的准备。当美国的政策制定者嘲笑中国的产业政策时，他们脑海中浮现的可能是空中客车的缓慢起飞，或是Solyndra（一家破产的美国太阳能公司）的黯然退场。殊不知更该仰望的，是盘旋在乌克兰上空嗡嗡作响的大疆无人机群。

China Shock 1.0 was bound to ebb when China ran out of low-cost labor, as it now has. Its growth is already falling behind Vietnam’s in industries such as clothing and commodity furniture. But unlike the United States, China is not looking back and mourning its lost manufacturing prowess. It is focusing instead on the key technologies of the 21st century. Contrary to a strategy built on cheap labor, China Shock 2.0 will last for as long as China has the resources, patience and discipline to compete fiercely.

当中国劳动力成本优势耗尽时，“中国冲击1.0”注定会减弱，这在当前已成现实。中国在服装和大众家具等行业的增长已落后于越南。但不同于美国，中国没有回头哀悼其失去的制造业实力，而是正将重点放在21世纪的关键技术上。与依赖廉价劳动力的战略不同，只要中国拥有资源、耐心和进行激烈竞争的自律，“中国冲击2.0”就会持续下去。

And if you doubt China’s capability or determination, the evidence is not on your side. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, an independent think tank funded by the Australian Department of Defense, the United States led China in 60 of 64 frontier technologies, such as A.I. and cryptography, between 2003 and 2007, while China led the United States in just three. In the most recent report, covering 2019 through 2023, the rankings were flipped on their head. China led in 57 of 64 key technologies, and the United States held the lead in only seven.

如果你怀疑中国的能力或决心，那你就错了。根据澳大利亚国防部资助的独立智库澳大利亚战略政策研究所的数据，在2003年至2007年间，美国在64项前沿技术中有60项领先于中国，而中国仅三项领先。但在最新的涵盖2019年至2023年的报告中，这一局面彻底反转：中国在64项关键技术中领先57项，而美国领先的只有七项。

What has been America’s response? Mostly tariffs: tariffs on everything, everywhere, all at once. This would have been a lackluster strategy for fighting the trade war America lost 20 years ago. On our current trajectory, we might just get those jobs making tennis sneakers. And if we push things further, we could be assembling iPhones in Texas by 2030, a job so tedious and poorly paid that the satirical newspaper The Onion once memed, “Chinese factory workers fear they may never be replaced with machines.”

美国的反应是什么？基本只有关税：同时对所有东西、所有国家征收关税。这种策略即便用来应对20年前美国输掉的那场贸易战都嫌拙劣。按照目前的发展轨迹，我们或许真能重获那些生产网球鞋的工作。若再进一步，到2030年，我们可能会在得克萨斯州组装iPhone，这项工作非常乏味，工资也很低，讽刺报纸《洋葱报》曾调侃说，“中国工人唯恐自己永无被机器取代之日。”

One thing that tariffs alone will never do is make the United States an attractive place to innovate. Yes, tariffs belong in our trade arsenal — but as precision munitions, not as land mines that maim foes, friends and noncombatants equally.

单靠关税永远无法让美国成为一个有吸引力的创新之地。关税固然该纳入贸易武器库——但应该作为精确武器，而不是无差别杀伤的地雷，同时重创敌人、朋友和平民。

So what’s the alternative? Before we conducted our China research a decade ago, we believed, as many economists did, that a hands-off trade strategy was better than the messy alternatives. We no longer think that. The United States’ mismanagement of China Shock 1.0 taught us that a better trade strategy is needed. What does better look like? As Einstein supposedly said, everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. In lieu of a too-simple answer, we offer four core principles.

那还有别的选择吗？在我们十年前进行中国研究之前，我们和许多经济学家一样认为，自由放任的贸易策略优于其他混乱的替代方案。现在我们不再这么认为了。美国对“中国冲击1.0”的应对失策告诉我们，需要更好的贸易战略。更好的战略是什么样子？正如爱因斯坦所说，凡事力求简洁，但不能过分简化。我们无意给出过度简化的答案，谨此提出四大核心原则。

First, policymakers must recognize that most of our difficulties with China are shared by our commercial allies. We should be acting in unison with the European Union, Japan and the many countries with which we have free trade agreements, such as Canada, Mexico and Korea, rather than punishing them with sky-high tariffs for the gall of selling us products we want to buy. Tariffs on electric vehicles would look very different if they were adopted by an expansive coalition of the willing, with the United States in the lead.

首先，政策制定者必须认识到，我们对中国的大部分困境也是我们的商业盟友共有的。我们应该与欧盟、日本以及同我们签订了自由贸易协定的许多国家（如加拿大、墨西哥和韩国）步调一致，而不是因为它们竟敢向我们出售我们想要购买的产品，就用高昂的关税惩罚它们。如果电动车关税是由一个美国牵头的广泛自愿联盟采取的，情况就会大不一样。

Simultaneously, we should encourage China to build battery and auto plants in the United States, just as China enticed leading U.S. companies to set up shop there over the past three decades. Why invite these ruthless competitors onto U.S. soil? Chinese policymakers frequently invoke the “catfish effect,” whereby a strong foreign competitor spurs the weak domestic “sardines” to swim faster or else get eaten. When China’s EV manufacturers were still sardines, Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai served as their catfish. Tesla is no longer a catfish in China and is increasingly looking like a nervous sardine.

同时，我们应该鼓励中国的电池和车企赴美建厂，就像中国在过去30年里吸引美国大企业在那里设厂一样。为什么要邀请这些无情的竞争者来到美国的土地上呢？中国的政策制定者经常援引“鲶鱼效应”——强大的外国竞争对手刺激弱小的国内“沙丁鱼”游得更快，否则就会被吃掉。当中国的电动汽车制造商还是沙丁鱼时，特斯拉的上海超级工厂就成了它们的鲶鱼。如今特斯拉在中国不再是一条鲶鱼，而越来越像一条惶惶不安的沙丁鱼。

Does inviting China to manufacture in the United States raise national security concerns? Sure, in some cases. And that’s a reason to mine our own rare earth metals, to ban Huawei networking equipment and to modernize our fleets and ports with ships and cargo cranes supplied by our highly competent Japanese and South Korean allies. But if we close the door on China’s leading industries, we’ll be stuck with homegrown mediocrity.

邀请中国在美国生产是否会引起国家安全方面的担忧？当然，在某些情况下会的。正因为如此，我们要自己开采稀土金属，禁止使用华为的网络设备，用实力雄厚的日本和韩国盟友提供的船只和货物起重机对我们的船队和港口进行现代化改造。但是，如果我们把中国的领先产业拒之门外，我们就只能面对本土的平庸情况。

Second, America should take a page from China by aggressively promoting experimentation in new fields. Choose sectors that are strategically vital (drones, advanced chips, fusion, quantum, biotech) and invest in them. Then do it “China style,” in which the U.S. government operates big venture funds that expect to have a low success rate for any single company or project and a larger success rate in spurring new industries.

第二，美国应该向中国学习，积极推动新领域的实验与创新。选择在战略上至关重要的行业（无人机、先进芯片、核聚变、量子、生物科技），并对其进行投资。然后采取“中国模式”，即美国政府设立大型风投基金，不渴求单个企业或项目的成功率，而着眼于培育新兴产业方面的整体成功率。

This approach worked during World War II (the Office of Scientific Research and Development brought us major developments in jet propulsion, radar and mass-produced penicillin), the race to the moon (NASA engineered getting there and back safely), and Operation Warp Speed (the federal government partnered with big pharma to produce a Covid-19 vaccine faster than essentially any other major disease vaccine had been produced).

这种方法在第二次世界大战期间（科学研究与发展办公室为我们带来了喷气推进技术、雷达和量产青霉素方面的重大进展）、登月竞赛（美国国家航空航天局设计了安全往返的计划）和曲速行动（联邦政府与大型制药公司合作，以创纪录的速度研发出新冠病毒疫苗）当中都起了作用。

These new ecosystems will need supporting infrastructure: reliable and inexpensive energy generation, rare earths, modern shipping and universities with vibrant STEM programs. This will mean pulling back from subsidizing legacy sectors such as coal and oil, restoring federal support for scientific research and welcoming rather than demonizing the talented foreign technicians who would love to help the country advance. At this point, we’d advocate a politically insulated strategic investment capacity in the United States, something like the Federal Reserve, but for innovation rather than interest rates.

这些新的生态系统将需要配套的基础设施：可靠而廉价的能源供应、稀土、现代航运和拥有充满活力的STEM项目的大学。这将意味着撤回对煤炭和石油等传统行业的补贴，恢复联邦政府对科学研究的支持，欢迎而非妖魔化愿意帮助美国进步的外国优秀技术人员。在这一点上，我们主张在美国建立一个政治上独立的战略投资机构，类似于美联储，但针对的是创新而不是利率。

Third, choose the battles that we can win (semiconductors) or those we simply cannot afford to lose (rare earths), and make the long-term investments to reach the right outcome. The American political system has the attention span of a squirrel on cocaine. It changes the rewards and penalties so often that little good can happen. Whether or not you thought President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act was worthwhile, it’s a terrible idea to chop down all those new investments in climate technology three years after they got started, as the recent domestic policy legislation has done. Likewise, summarily terminating the talented CHIPs and Science team, which was chartered to revitalize domestic semiconductor manufacturing, as Mr. Trump has called for Congress to do, won’t advance American leadership in A.I. chips. Both sides of the aisle agree that confronting China is essential for a secure economic future, which offers a semblance of hope that some continuity in our economic policies may be feasible.

第三，选择可胜之战（半导体）与必守之地（稀土），进行长期投资以取得理想的结果。美国政治体系的注意力持续时间就像吸食可卡因的松鼠。它如此频繁地改变奖惩措施，以至难以产生积极成功。不管你认为拜登总统的《通货膨胀削减法案》是否值得，但像最近的国内政策立法所做的那样，在气候技术方面的所有新投资启动三年后就大举撤裁，是一个糟糕的主意。同样，像特朗普呼吁国会所做的那样，草率地终止优秀的、为振兴国内半导体制造业而成立的“芯片与科学”团队，美国在人工智能芯片领域的领导地位必将受损。两党一致认为，对抗中国对于经济未来的安全至关重要，这为我们的经济政策保持一定的连续性带来了一丝希望。

Fourth, prevent the devastating impacts of job loss from the next major shock, be it from China or somewhere else (you’ve heard of A.I., right?). The scarring effects of manufacturing-job loss have caused America a heap of economic and political trouble over the past two decades. In the interim, we’ve learned that extended unemployment insurance, wage insurance through the federal Trade Adjustment Assistance program and the right kinds of career and technical education from community colleges can help displaced workers get back on their feet. Yet, we carry out these policies on too small a scale and in too poorly targeted a manner to help much, and we’re moving in the wrong direction. Inexcusably, Congress defunded Trade Adjustment Assistance in 2022.

第四，防止下一次重大冲击造成失业的破坏性影响，无论冲击是来自中国还是其他地方（你听说过人工智能，对吧？）在过去20年里，制造业工作岗位的流失给美国带来了一系列的经济和政治问题。在此期间，我们了解到，通过联邦贸易调整援助计划延长失业保险和工资保险，以及社区大学提供适当类型的职业和技术教育，可以帮助失业工人重新站稳脚跟。然而，我们执行这些政策的规模太小，针对性也太弱，无法发挥很大作用，而且我们正在朝着错误的方向前进。不可原谅的是，国会在2022年取消了对贸易调整援助的资助。

There is no economic policy that can make job loss painless — especially when it cuts the heart out of your industry or hometown. But when industries collapse, our best response is getting displaced workers into new jobs quickly and making sure the young, small businesses that are responsible for most net U.S. job growth are poised to do their thing. Tariffs, which narrowly protect old-line manufacturing, are terribly suited for this task.

没有任何经济政策可以使失业变得毫无痛苦，尤其是当失业使你所在的行业或家乡失去元气的时候。但是，面对行业崩溃，我们最好的反应是让失业的工人迅速找到新的工作，并确保那些带来美国净就业增长的年轻小企业做好准备。关税只能局限在保护老牌制造业，非常不适合这项任务。

The stakes couldn’t be higher. While gazing in the rearview mirror, we’ve lost sight of the road ahead. Some mile markers on our current route include the ebbing of U.S. technological, economic, geopolitical and military leadership. Managing China Shock 2.0 requires playing to our strengths, not licking our wounds. We must nourish industries that have high potential for innovation, funded by joint investments by the private and public sectors. These industries are in play globally, something China figured out a decade ago. We should stop fighting the last trade war and meet China’s challenge in the current one.

我们正面临重大的利益攸关时刻。我们盯着后视镜，却看不清前方的路。我们当前道路上的一些里程标志包括美国技术、经济、地缘政治和军事领导地位的衰落。应对“中国冲击2.0”需要发挥我们的优势，而不是舔舐伤口。我们必须培育具有巨大创新潜力、由公私部门共同投资的产业。这些产业在全球范围内都大有可为，中国早在十年前就意识到了这一点。美国必须停止纠缠过往贸易战，去迎接当前的中国挑战。

China’s economy grew at a steady pace in the spring, according to official figures, bolstered by domestic investment in factories and big projects like high-speed rail lines and a continued flood of exports throughout the world.

根据官方数据，今年春季中国经济保持了稳健增长的态势，得益于国内在工厂及高铁等大型项目上的投资增加，以及出口在全球范围内持续强劲。

In the second quarter of the year, from April through June, China’s economy grew 1.1 percent over the previous three months, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Tuesday. If that pace continues, the economy will expand at an annual rate of about 4.1 percent — only slightly slower than the growth in the first three months of this year.

中国国家统计局周二公布，今年第二季度（4月至6月）国内生产总值环比增长1.1%。若这一增长速度持续全年，年化增速将达到约4.1%，仅略低于今年第一季度的增速。

The report on China’s gross domestic product, or G.D.P., shows how the country’s manufacturing-focused economy has been roiled by President Trump’s steep tariffs, which briefly reached 145 percent in late April and early May. Separate trade data, including a report released Monday, shows that China’s exports to the United States have slumped. But its exports to other countries have jumped, particularly goods sent to Southeast Asia — many of which are re-exported to the United States — and to Europe.

这份关于中国国内生产总值的报告显示，中国以制造业为主导的经济正受到特朗普总统大幅加征关税的冲击，这些关税在4月底至5月初一度高达145%。另有独立的贸易数据，包括周一发布的一份报告显示，中国对美国的出口已大幅下滑。但对其他国家的出口则大幅增长，尤其是对东南亚的出口——其中许多商品随后被转口至美国——此外对欧洲的出口也显著上升。

中国国家统计局周二表示，今年4月至6月中国经济环比增长1.1%。如果这一增速持续，全年经济将以约4.1%的年化率增长。

Takeaways: What the Latest Numbers Show

（本文稍后将有更新，敬请关注。）

A Chinese university said that it would expel a student because she had had “improper contact with a foreigner” and “damaged national dignity,” after videos circulated online that suggested she had been intimate with a Ukrainian video gamer.

一所中国大学表示将开除一名学生，原因是她与一名外国人有“不正当交往”，并“有损国格”。此前，网络上流传的视频显示她与一名乌克兰游戏玩家举止亲密。

The announcement set off heated debate in China. Some commentators applauded the decision and said that Chinese people — particularly women — were too enamored of foreigners. But others said the expulsion smacked of sexism and paternalism, and compared it to examples of people accused of rape or sexual harassment on campus who had been punished more lightly.

这一通告在中国引发了激烈的争论。一些评论人士对学校的决定表示赞赏，认为中国人，尤其是女性，对外国人过于迷恋。但也有人指出，这种开除决定带有性别歧视和家长式作风的意味，并将其与一些校园内的强奸或性骚扰案件相比较，称那些被控者所受的惩罚反而更轻。

Many also criticized the university, Dalian Polytechnic University, in northeastern China, for publicly shaming the student by posting its expulsion notice on its website last week and identifying the student by her full name.

许多人还批评这所位于中国东北、名为大连工业大学的学校，指责其在官网上公布开除决定并公开学生全名的做法是在公开羞辱学生。

“If there is anyone who truly undermined national dignity in this case, it was not the woman whose privacy rights were violated,” Zhao Hong, a professor of law at Peking University in Beijing, wrote in an opinion column, “but the online spectators who frantically humiliated an ordinary woman under the banner of so-called justice, and the educational institution that used stale moral commandments.”

“如果说在这个案件中，有谁才是真正的有损国格，根本不是那个隐私权受害的女生，”北京大学法学教授赵宏在一篇评论文章中写道，“而是那些打着所谓的正义旗号对一个普通女性进行疯狂羞辱的网络看客，还有用陈腐的道德诫命无端剥夺学生受教育权的教育机构。”

The university said the student’s conduct, in an incident it said took place on Dec. 16, had “caused a negative impact.” It gave no details, but said the student was being punished in accordance with a university regulation about “civic morality.”

该校表示，这名学生的行为发生在去年12月16日，“造成了恶劣的负面影响”。校方并未透露具体细节，但称对其处分是根据校规中关于“公民道德”的相关规定作出的。

That regulation reads: “Those who have improper contact with foreigners and damage the national dignity and the reputation of the school shall be given a demerit or above, depending on the circumstances.”

该规定写道：“与外国人不正当交往，有损国格、校誉的，视情节给予记过及以上处分。”

Chinese social media users quickly linked the announcement to videos shared on that date by a Ukrainian professional video gamer, Danylo Teslenko, who goes by the nickname Zeus. Mr. Teslenko, who had been visiting Shanghai for an e-sports tournament, had posted videos of himself with a Chinese woman to his Telegram channel, where he currently has about 43,000 subscribers.

中国社交媒体用户很快将这一通告与乌克兰职业电竞选手、昵称“Zeus”的达尼洛·特斯连科在那一天发布的视频联系在一起。当时他正在上海参加一场电竞比赛。他在自己的Telegram频道上发布了与一名中国女性在一起的视频，该频道目前大约有4.3万名订阅者。

Mr. Teslenko has since deleted the videos. Screenshots and recordings still circulating online show the two apparently in a hotel room, with the woman seemingly aware she is being filmed, but do not show any sexually explicit behavior.

特斯连科随后删除了这些视频。但仍在网上流传的截图和录屏显示，两人似乎在一家酒店房间内，女子看上去知道自己正在被拍摄，但画面中并未出现任何露骨的性行为。

In an emailed response to questions, Mr. Teslenko said that he deleted the videos when he realized they were spreading on Chinese social media. “I understood that these clips, although not intimate in nature, were too personal and inappropriate for public sharing,” he wrote. “That was my mistake, and I sincerely apologize for it.”

在通过电子邮件回应相关提问时，特斯连科表示，当他意识到这些视频在中国社交媒体上传播后，便将其删除。“我明白，这些片段虽然不具有亲密性质，但过于私人，不适合公开分享，”他写道，“这是我的错误，我对此表示诚挚的歉意。”

Mr. Teslenko also addressed the outcry in two posts on X on Sunday, after news of the expulsion spread. He wrote that he had believed he was sharing “just a normal moment from life,” not anything “disrespectful.”

在开除事件的消息传开后，特斯连科于周日在X上发布了两条帖子回应外界的强烈反应。他写道，他当时认为自己分享的只是“一个普通的生活片段”，并非任何“不尊重他人”的内容。

But on Chinese social media, there was general agreement among commenters that there had been disrespect. The only question was by whom.

但在中国社交媒体上，评论者普遍认为确实存在不尊重行为，唯一的争议在于不尊重的行为究竟来自谁。

Users who cheered the university’s decision said that the woman had shamed China by making it seem as if Chinese women were promiscuous, especially with white men. A tech blogger with 14 million followers wrote on the platform Weibo that “fawning over foreigners” would never bring respect, and that “some mistakes are unforgivable.” Some state media outlets also shared the woman’s full name.

支持学校决定的网友认为，这名女子使中国蒙羞，给人一种中国女性不检点的印象，尤其是在面对白人男性的时候。一位拥有1400万粉丝的科技博主在微博上写道，“崇洋媚外”永远换不来尊重，“有些错就是不能原谅”。一些官方媒体也公开了该女子的全名。

But others asked why the vitriol seemed to be directed primarily at the woman, rather than at Mr. Teslenko, for sharing the videos. (Mr. Teslenko frequently makes crude jokes, including about women, online; in posts to his subscribers on Telegram accompanying the Shanghai videos he had indicated that he would show photos of her if his posts drew enough likes.)

但也有人质疑，为何愤怒的矛头主要指向这名女子，而非分享视频的特斯连科。（特斯连科经常在网上开一些粗俗玩笑，包括关于女性的玩笑；在他向Telegram订阅者发布的有关上海视频的帖子中，他曾表示如果点赞数够多，将会展示这名女生的照片。）

Other users criticized the university for trying to enforce outdated moral standards. According to the university regulations, other behavior that could lead to censure included listening to music too loudly and any premarital sexual activity.

还有网友批评该校试图强制执行过时的道德标准。根据校规，其他可能受到谴责的行为还包括用过大的音量听音乐，以及任何婚前性行为。

The woman could not be reached for comment. The university did not return requests for comment.

目前无法联系到这名女性置评，学校方面也未回应置评请求。

Some people also pointed out that Chinese men who post on social media seeking or showing off Caucasian wives are often hailed as national heroes and paragons of masculinity. Others highlighted the case of a male student who was found guilty of rape and put on probation by his university, or a male professor who was allowed to keep teaching after sexually harassing students.

还有人指出，中国男性在社交媒体上寻觅或炫耀白人妻子时，往往会被誉为民族英雄和阳刚气概的典范。另有人提到这样的事例：一名男学生被判强奸罪成立，只被校方做留校察看处理，一位男教授性骚扰学生却仍被允许继续任教。

Some prominent legal scholars encouraged the female student to sue the university for infringing on her rights to privacy and an education.

一些知名法律学者鼓励该女学生起诉学校，指控其侵犯了她的隐私权和受教育权。

“As an adult woman, whether she has a sexual relationship with others is entirely within her right to sexual autonomy,” Professor Zhao, the law professor, wrote.

“作为一名成年女性，该女生与他人发生性关系，完全属于其性自主权利，”法学教授赵宏写道。

Some official media outlets also offered measured defenses of the woman. The Global Times, a tabloid controlled by the ruling Chinese Communist Party, wrote a commentary that said “problem students” should be “guided to recognize their mistakes,” but in private. Others noted that the expulsion was not final — the notice said the student had 60 days to appeal — but that the revelation of her identity was irreversible.

一些官方媒体也对该女子进行了较为审慎的辩护。由中国共产党控制的小报《环球时报》发表评论称，“问题学生”应当“通过适当的方式引导其认识错误”，但应在私下进行。还有人指出，开除决定尚未最终生效——通告中提到学生有60天的申诉期限——但公开其身份这一行为已无法挽回。

Browsing through the selection of Apple iPhones in an electronics store in Tianjin in eastern China, Zhan Demi rattled off the reasons she needed to upgrade her device.

中国天津的一家电子产品商店里，詹德宓（音）一边浏览苹果手机，一边不假思索地说着她需要升级手机的理由。

Photos and videos of her toddler were quickly eating up her phone’s storage. One of her children’s teachers asked her to download various apps, again straining the limits of her device. But the factor that ultimately brought her into the store was a government trade-in program aimed at stimulating stubbornly sluggish consumer spending in China.

她现有手机的内存已被刚学会走路的孩子的照片和视频占满了。一个孩子的老师让她下载各种各样的应用程序，进一步挤占了手机内存。但最终促使她走进这家商店的原因是政府为刺激持续低迷的消费支出而推出的以旧换新政策。

Confronting a trade war with the United States, China’s government has poured $42 billion this year into a consumer trade-in program, double last year’s amount. The aim was to jolt a much-needed surge in spending at a precarious moment for the economy by subsidizing discounts for a wide variety of consumer goods, from washing machines to electric vehicles.

面对与美国的贸易战，中国政府今年将提供3000亿元资金，支持消费品以旧换新。今年的资金规模是去年的两倍，目的是通过为购买从洗衣机到电动汽车等各种消费产品提供补贴，来刺激状况不稳定的经济所急需的消费增长。

The program has proved so successful that several municipalities have suspended or curtailed the program in recent weeks to prevent the money from running out prematurely. In May, retail sales grew a surprising 6.4 percent, exceeding economists’ expectations, spurred by robust demand for smartphones and home appliances.

该政策成效显著，以至于一些城市的政府已在最近几周暂停或降低提供补贴，以防止资金过早耗尽。在对智能手机和家电产品的强劲需求推动下，5月的零售总额意外地增长了6.4%，超出了经济学家们的预期。

由于去年的经济增长乏力，中国政府为刺激消费支出，推出了耗资1500亿元的消费品以旧换新政策。而2025年的资金规模是去年的两倍。

“We want to shear wool from the sheep,” Ms. Zhan said, using a popular Chinese idiom for seizing an opportunity. She had already taken advantage of the program to buy an energy-efficient air-conditioner and other home appliances at discounts of up to 20 percent. “If we can upgrade everything at once when there’s a good deal, we’ll do it,” she said.

“我们想薅羊毛，”詹女士说，她的意思是要利用商家推出的各类优惠机会。她利用以旧换新政策，以最多可达20%的折扣购买了节能空调等家电。“如果能在有优惠的时候一次性地升级所有产品，我们就会行动，”她说。

Tepid consumer spending has been a long-running concern for China’s economy. Chinese consumers save more and spend less than those in most developed countries, even when the economy is growing at a breakneck pace. But now that growth is decelerating, lucrative jobs are disappearing and the country’s slumping property sector — a key driver of the economy and an investment destination for savings — is showing no signs of rebounding, boosting spending is critical to sustaining economic growth.

消费低迷长期困扰中国经济。与大多数发达国家的情况相比，中国消费者的储蓄率更高，更少花钱，即使是在经济高速增长的时候。但现在，经济增长已在放缓，高薪岗位正在消失，而且低迷的房地产行业没有丝毫反弹的迹象（房地产曾是中国经济增长的主要动力，也是中国人投资的主要方式），因此刺激消费对维持经济增长至关重要。

China’s usual playbook for lifting the economy may not work this time around. It cannot spend as lavishly on infrastructure as it did in the past. Its local governments are swimming in debt after decades of building airports, train stations and bridges. Its continuing trade feud with the United States and a growing global concern about the flood of inexpensive Chinese goods limit its ability to rev up the country’s factories to increase exports.

中国惯用的经济刺激手段此次可能失灵。基建投资无法延续过去的规模。地方政府几十年来一直在修建机场、火车站，以及桥梁，但现已陷入巨额债务。中国与美国持续的贸易摩擦，加上全球各地对廉价中国商品大量涌入的担忧日益增长，限制了中国提高工厂生产、增加出口的能力。

In a reflection of the challenges facing policymakers, Ms. Zhan said that, despite spending through the trade-in program, she was also cutting back. When her preferred coffee shop raised prices to $2 a cup from $1.40, she decided to buy beans and make coffee at home. She said it was natural to make such choices when the economy was not good.

詹女士说，尽管她在消费品以旧换新上花了钱，但她也在缩减其他方面的开支，这反映了中国政策制定者们面临的挑战。她常去的咖啡馆把咖啡的单价从10元提高到15元后，她决定自己买豆在家做咖啡。她说，在经济不景气的时候，做出这种选择很自然。

消费品以旧换新的目的是通过为购买电动汽车和家用电器等商品提供补贴来刺激消费。

“Many people are even unemployed, or they are forced to stop working, or their salaries are cut,” Ms. Zhan said. “Consequently, rather than just being short of money, people tend to compare and make choices with more consideration.”

“不少人甚至已经失了业，或被迫停止工作，或被降了工资，”詹女士说。“所以为了让手头的钱够用，人们更倾向于货比三家，花钱更谨慎。”

While the ruling Communist Party has paid lip service to the importance of boosting consumption for years, recent statements from top officials are growing more emphatic.

虽然执政的中国共产党多年来一直在口头上强调促进消费的重要性，但高层官员们最近的说法已更加明确。

Last month, China’s premier, Li Qiang, said the country was “intensifying efforts” to expand domestic demand with special initiatives. Speaking in Tianjin at the World Economic Forum, a meeting of business executives, government leaders and experts, he pledged to make China “a megasized consumption powerhouse on top of being a manufacturing powerhouse.”

国务院总理李强上个月表示，中国正在“加力实施扩大内需战略，开展提振消费专项行动”。在天津举行的的世界经济论坛上，李强面对与会的企业高管、政府要员以及专家，承诺“推动中国在‘制造大国’的坚实基础上成长为超大体量的‘消费大国’”。

Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, pledged this year to “fully unleash” the country’s consumers to counter the impact of a trade war with the United States.

中国最高领导人习近平今年承诺“使消费潜力充分释放出来”，以抵消中美贸易战的影响。

The current trade-in program — similar to America’s “cash for clunkers” initiative — started late last year. It initially applied to eight categories of home appliances and automobiles. The discounts range from 15 percent to 20 percent, with larger savings reserved for more energy-efficient products.

当前实施的以旧换新计划类似于美国的“旧车换现金”政策，于去年年底启动，最初只适用于八类家电和汽车，提供的补贴从15%到20%不等，节能产品的补贴更高。

China, which issued special Treasury bonds to fund the program, allocated twice as much money for it in 2025 and extended the products covered to include smartphones, tablets and smartwatches.

中国已发行了特别国债为消费品以旧换新提供资金，2025年提供的资金将是去年的两倍，产品覆盖范围已扩大到包括智能手机、平板电脑和智能手表等。

Last month, the municipal government of Chongqing, along with a few other regions, halted the subsidies. Chongqing, a city of more than 30 million people, stated that the pause was not a complete cancellation but rather a preparation for a second round of subsidies that would be available at a later date.

上个月，重庆市和其他几个地区的政府暂停了补贴。重庆是一个有3000多万人口的直辖市，市政府表示暂停补贴不是彻底取消，而是为稍后推出的第二轮补贴做准备。

国务院总理李强说，中国正在“加力实施扩大内需战略，开展提振消费专项行动”。

Despite the success of the trade-in program, economists fear that its impact on consumption will be short-lived and could lead to a decline in the second half of the year and the first half of next year. Nomura, a Japanese investment bank, estimates that retail sales in the second half of 2025 will decline 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, and by almost one percentage point in the first half of next year.

尽管以旧换新政策取得了成功，但经济学家们担心该政策对消费的影响将是短暂的，并可能导致今年下半年和明年上半年的消费支出下滑。据日本投资银行野村证券估计，中国2025年下半年的零售额将比去年同期减少0.4个百分点，明年上半年的零售额将降低近一个百分点。

The government is exploring alternative policy options. Starting this year, China is planning to provide annual payments of $500 per child under 3 years old to families that have children, according to Bloomberg. Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said the cash handouts were a “shift in mind-set” and laid the groundwork for other measures to support consumption.

中国政府正在探索其他政策方案。据彭博新闻社报道，中国打算从今年开始向有三岁以下儿童的家庭提供每孩每年3600元的补贴。凯投宏观的中国经济学家黄子春（音）表示，提供现金补贴是一个“思维转变”，为后续消费支持措施奠定了基础。

Another factor contributing to China’s high savings rates is its sparsely funded social safety net. While most Chinese citizens are enrolled in medical and pension insurance, the benefits are limited and out-of-pocket payments are significant. Most people are not covered by unemployment or workplace injury insurance, including many of China’s 200 million gig workers.

中国高储蓄率的另一个原因是社会保障体系资金不足。虽然大多数中国公民都参加了医疗保险和养老保险，但保障力度有限，而且自付比例较高。大多数人没有失业或工伤保险，包括中国两亿零工群体中的许多人。

Zhang Dylan, a salesman for the automobile maker BYD, said he had witnessed a modest bump in sales for cars from the trade-in program. As he sat waiting for potential customers to arrive, he noted that the demand, however, was nothing like it had been two or three years ago, when orders would roll in and there was a six-month waiting list for interested buyers.

汽车制造商比亚迪的销售员张迪伦（音）说，以旧换新为汽车销量带来了小幅增长。但他在展厅等待顾客时坦言，需求仍远不及两三年前，那时买车的人接连不断，想买的人甚至需要等上六个月才能拿到车。

在中国浙江的一个物流中心，准备装入集装箱的出口货物。

Like many Chinese consumers, Mr. Zhang said he had experienced financial strain because of the real estate downturn. He and his wife bought a home in 2019 for about $265,000. Since then, its value has fallen by nearly half.

与许多中国消费者一样，张先生说，房地产市场低迷已经让他的经济状况受到影响。他和妻子2019年花大约180万买了房子。自那以后，房子的价值已跌了近一半。

Asked why he thought Chinese consumers were not spending more, Mr. Zhang said people were being tightfisted because “it is too difficult to make money.”

当被问及为何中国消费者不愿增加消费时，张先生说，人们花钱吝啬，是因为“赚钱太难”。

Inside a mall in Tianjin, Wang Mingke, a salesman at a store for the Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi, said the trade-in program had spurred buying of the company’s smartphones. He said the store sold more than 30 smartphones a month, compared with 20 a month before the subsidies. A few months ago, in the early months of the initiative, the store sold 50 phones in a month.

在天津一家购物中心的小米手机专卖店，销售员王明科（音）说，消费品以旧换新刺激了公司手机的销量。他说，现在店里每月卖出30多部智能手机，而政府提供补贴前每月只卖出20部。几个月前，也就是补贴政策实施的最初几个月，该店每月曾卖出过50部手机。

Mr. Wang, 35, said the subsidy gave a little push to worried consumers to spend.

现年35岁的王先生说，补贴政策给担心花钱的消费者提供了一点消费动力。

“Everyone is talking about the economic downturn, and earning money is indeed more difficult,” he said. “As your income becomes a little lower, when it comes to discretionary spending, you might just choose not to buy for now.”

“大家都在谈论经济下行，赚钱确实更难了，”他说。“随着人们的收入减少，他们在可自由支配的支出上可能会选择暂时不买。”

Trade chaos is forcing America’s allies closer together, and further from the United States. And as that happens, the European Union is trying to position itself at the center of a new global trade map.

贸易混乱正迫使美国的盟友们更加紧密地走到一起，并越来越远离美国。与此同时，欧盟正试图将自己定位为新全球贸易格局的中心。

The bloc learned this weekend that Washington would subject it to 30 percent tariffs starting Aug. 1. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the E.U. executive branch, responded with a pledge to keep negotiating. She also made it clear that, while the European Union would delay any retaliation until early August, it would continue to draw up plans to hit back with force.

上周末，欧盟得知从8月1日起，美国将对其征收30%的关税。欧盟执行机构主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩对此回应称，欧盟将继续致力于谈判。同时她也明确表示，尽管欧盟会将任何报复行动推迟到8月初，但仍将继续制定强有力的反制计划。

But that was not the entire strategy. Europe, like many of the United States’ trading partners, is also looking for more reliable friends.

但这并不是战略的全部。像美国的许多贸易伙伴一样，欧洲也在寻找更加可靠的朋友。

“We’re living in turbulent times, and when economic uncertainty meets geopolitical volatility, partners like us must come closer together,” Ms. von der Leyen said on Sunday in Brussels at a news conference alongside the Indonesian president, Prabowo Subianto.

冯德莱恩周日在布鲁塞尔与印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托共同出席新闻发布会时表示：“我们正处于动荡时期，当经济不确定性与地缘政治动荡交织时，我们这样的伙伴必须更加紧密地团结在一起。”

Just as President Trump threatens to put hefty tariffs on many countries, including Indonesia, the European Union is working to relax trade barriers and deepen economic relations.

特朗普总统威胁要对包括印尼在内的多个国家征收高额关税之际，欧盟在努力放宽贸易壁垒并加深经济关系。

“In hard times, some turn inward, toward isolation and fragmentation,” Ms. von der Leyen said. Then, in a message implicitly extended to world leaders who have been jolted by Mr. Trump’s tariffs, she added, “You are always welcome here, and you can count on Europe.”

“在困难时期，有些国家会转向内向、孤立和分裂，”冯德莱恩表示。随后，她向那些因特朗普的关税政策而感到震惊的世界领导人含蓄地表示：“这里永远欢迎你们，你们可以信赖欧洲。”

It is a split screen that is becoming typical. On one side, the United States sows uncertainty as it blows up weeks of painstaking negotiations and escalates tariff threats. On the other, the 27-nation European Union and other American trading partners are forging closer ties, laying the groundwork for a global trading system that revolves less and less around an increasingly fickle United States.

这种分裂的画面正变得越来越典型：一方面，美国推翻数周艰苦谈判的成果，不断升级关税威胁，制造不确定性；另一方面，由27个国家组成的欧盟以及其他美国的贸易伙伴则在加强彼此联系，为一个越来越不围绕日益反复无常的美国的全球贸易体系奠定基础。

“We in Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, we really consider Europe to be very, very important in providing global stability,” Mr. Prabowo said on Sunday.

印尼总统普拉博沃在周日表示：“我们东南亚国家，尤其是印尼，确实认为欧洲在维护全球稳定方面非常、非常重要。”

It will be hard to move away from the United States, and Mr. Prabowo predicted that America would always be a world leader. It is home to the world’s largest economy, a bustling consumer market and cutting-edge technologies and services.

要摆脱对美国的依赖并不容易，普拉博沃预测美国将始终是世界的领导者。美国拥有全球最大的经济体、繁荣的消费市场以及尖端的技术与服务。

But many American trading partners feel that they are left with little choice but to diversify. And while trade relationships are difficult to alter, they are also difficult to change back once they have been totally reorganized.

但许多美国的贸易伙伴感觉别无选择，只能寻求多元化。虽然贸易关系难以改变，但一旦彻底重组后，也很难再恢复原状。

That is what is happening right now.

这就是正在发生的状况。

7月14日，特朗普总统和第一夫人梅拉尼娅于马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地。

E.U. negotiators had engaged in months of back-and-forth with their U.S. counterparts before Mr. Trump’s announcement. And until the middle of the week, Brussels hoped that it was closing in on at least the framework for a deal: The European Union would accept a base tariff of 10 percent, but it would also push for carve-outs for key sectors.

在特朗普宣布关税之前，欧盟谈判代表与美国进行了数月的反复磋商。直到本周中旬，布鲁塞尔还希望能够至少达成一项协议框架：欧盟接受10%的基础关税，但同时也会争取为关键行业争取豁免。

Instead, Mr. Trump began hinting on Thursday that the bloc — one of America’s most important trading partners — would receive a letter setting out a sweeping, across-the-board tariff rate.

然而，特朗普在上周四开始暗示，作为美国最重要贸易伙伴之一的欧盟将收到一封信，信中将列出一项全面的统一关税税率。

The White House officially notified E.U. officials on Friday that their carefully drawn plans had blown up. And on Saturday, the public learned from Mr. Trump’s social media account that the bloc would be subject to a 30 percent rate.

白宫上周五正式通知欧盟官员，他们精心制定的计划已被打乱。上周六，公众通过特朗普的社交媒体账号得知，欧盟将被征收30%的关税。

Mr. Trump simultaneously announced that he would place a similar tariff on goods from Mexico. Canada’s rate is slightly higher, at 35 percent. The likes of Thailand (35 percent), Bangladesh (35 percent) and Brazil (50 percent), along with dozens of other U.S. trading partners, appear to be headed for a similar fate.

特朗普同时宣布，他将对来自墨西哥的商品征收类似的关税。加拿大的关税率略高，为35%。泰国(35%)、孟加拉国(35%)、巴西(50%)以及其他数十个美国贸易伙伴似乎也将面临类似的命运。

Mr. Trump has backed down from threatened tariffs before, and he has indicated a willingness to negotiate these tariffs down before their Aug. 1 effective date — and the European Union and other economies are poised to continue with negotiations.

特朗普此前曾撤回过威胁征收的关税，他也表示愿意在8月1日关税生效前进行谈判，降低关税水平——欧盟和其他经济体也准备继续进行谈判。

But the atmosphere is increasingly hostile.

但整体氛围日益敌对。

Mr. Trump is “instrumentalizing uncertainty” to try to force trading partners to make concessions, said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, calling the latest announcements a “complete move of the goal posts.”

欧亚集团欧洲区董事总经理穆贾塔巴·拉赫曼表示，特朗普正在“利用不确定性”试图迫使贸易伙伴做出让步，并称最近的宣布是一次“彻底的朝令夕改”。

Mr. Trump’s announcement on Saturday sharply intensified calls in Europe for forceful retaliation.

特朗普周六的宣布极大地加剧了欧洲内部要求强硬反击的呼声。

“Trump is trying to divide and scare Europe,” said Brando Benifei, who heads the delegation for relations with the United States at the European Parliament.

“特朗普正在试图分裂并恐吓欧洲，”欧洲议会美欧关系代表团的团长布兰多·贝尼菲表示。

4月，伦敦的购物人群。美国的关税促使英国和欧盟在贸易方面的关系比脱欧以来任何时候都更加紧密。

But Ms. von der Leyen announced on Sunday that the bloc would wait until early August to allow ready-made retaliatory tariffs to kick in. Those tariffs cover nearly $25 billion of goods. They had already been suspended once and had been poised to take effect early on Tuesday morning.

但冯德莱恩周日宣布，欧盟将等到8月初才启动早已准备好的报复性关税措施。这些关税涉及近250亿美元的商品，之前被暂停过一次，原本计划于本周二一早生效。

“At the same time, we will continue to prepare further countermeasures,” Ms. von der Leyen said.

冯德莱恩表示：“与此同时，我们将继续准备进一步的反制措施。”

Hitting back would be just a first step; drawing closer to outside allies may prove even more meaningful in the long run.

反击只是第一步；从长远来看，与外部盟友拉近关系可能更加重要。

Since Mr. Trump’s push to reorder the trading system kicked off in February, the European Union has been hustling to strike new trade agreements and deepen existing ones.

自从特朗普于2月开始推动重塑贸易体系以来，欧盟一直在加紧签订新的贸易协定，并深化已有的合作关系。

Canada and the European Union have pulled together. Britain and the European Union have had a rapprochement, five years after Britain officially exited the union. The bloc is working toward closer trading relationships with India and South Africa, and with countries across South America and Asia.

加拿大和欧盟已携手合作。英国在正式脱欧五年后，与欧盟关系出现缓和。欧盟正努力与印度和南非以及南美和亚洲的多个国家建立更紧密的贸易关系。

Nor is the European Union the only global power adopting such a strategy. Canada is also drawing closer to Southeast Asia, while Brazil and Mexico are working to deepen their ties.

欧盟并不是唯一采取这种策略的全球主要经济体。加拿大也在拉近与东南亚的关系，而巴西和墨西哥则在努力深化彼此的联系。

Officials have even floated the idea of building trading structures that exclude the United States and China, which is widely blamed for supporting its factories to the point that they overproduce and flood global markets with cheap goods.

官员们甚至提出建立排除美国和中国的贸易架构，中国被广泛指责通过支持其工厂导致产能过剩，向全球市场倾销廉价商品。

Ms. von der Leyen recently suggested that Europe could pursue a new collaboration between the bloc and a trading group of 11 countries that includes Japan, Vietnam and Australia, but that notably did not include the United States or China.

冯德莱恩最近表示，欧洲可以推动欧盟与一个由日本、越南和澳大利亚等11个国家组成的贸易集团开展新的合作，但该集团明显地未将美国和中国包含进来。

4月，越南胡志明市一家服装厂的生产线。全球各国正在讨论建立一个以规则为基础、排除美国在外的贸易秩序。

One key question, analysts said, is whether America’s allies will go a step further. Instead of simply collaborating more with one another and leaving the United States out, could they actually gang up to counter the United States?

分析人士指出，一个关键问题是，美国的盟友们是否会更进一步。除了彼此加强合作、排除美国，它们是否会真正联手，共同对抗美国？

Large economies could consider coordinating their retaliation to Mr. Trump’s latest round of tariffs, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Bruegel, an economic policy research organization in Brussels. Banding together could give them more leverage.

布鲁塞尔经济政策研究机构布鲁盖尔高级研究员雅各布·弗恩克·柯克加德表示，大型经济体可以考虑协调对特朗普最新一轮关税的反制行动，联合起来将赋予它们更大的谈判筹码。

“I would start to look for coordination,” he said. “That’s the rational thing.”

“是我的话就会开始寻求协调，”他说，“这是理性的选择。”

For most countries that received President Trump’s letters last week threatening steep tariffs, especially the Asian nations with economies focused on supplying the United States, there are no obvious substitutes as a destination for their goods.

对于上周收到特朗普总统威胁征收高额关税信函的大多数国家，尤其是那些经济以供应美国市场为主的亚洲国家而言，它们几乎找不到明显的替代出口目的地。

But they are doing their best to find them.

但它们正在尽力寻找。


Business and political leaders around the world have been roundly baffled by the White House’s imposition of new duties, even as governments shuttled envoys back and forth to Washington offering new purchases and pledges of reform. Mr. Trump is erecting new trade barriers and demanding deep concessions by Aug. 1, claiming years of grievance because America buys more than it sells.

尽管各国政府不断派遣特使往返华盛顿，提出新的采购计划和改革承诺，但白宫仍坚持征收新关税，这一做法令全球商界和政界领导人深感困惑。特朗普正在设置新的贸易壁垒，要求各国在8月1日前做出重大让步，声称美国多年来因进口大于出口而蒙受损失。


“Across the world, tools once used to generate growth are now wielded to pressure, isolate and contain,” Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister of Malaysia, said at a gathering of Southeast Asian leaders on Wednesday. “As we navigate external pressures, we need to fortify our foundations. Trade among ourselves. Invest more in one another.”

马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣周三在东南亚领导人的峰会上表示：“在世界各地，曾经用于推动增长的工具如今却被用来施压、孤立和遏制。面对外部压力，我们需要巩固自身基础。加强彼此贸易，增加相互投资。”

马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣上周三表示：“面对外部压力，我们需要巩固自身基础。”

There are already a few signs of such efforts. South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, sent special envoys to Australia and Germany to discuss defense and trade issues, and plans on dispatching delegations to several others. Brazil and India announced plans to increase their bilateral trade by 70 percent, to $20 billion.

此类努力已初现端倪。韩国新任总统李在明已向澳大利亚和德国派遣特使讨论防务和贸易问题，并计划向其他多国派出代表团。巴西和印度宣布计划将双边贸易额提高70%，至200亿美元。

Indonesia says it is nearing a treaty with the European Union that would drop most tariffs on both sides to zero. And in Vietnam, which Mr. Trump said had accepted 20 percent tariffs on its goods headed to the United States before last week’s letters, the deputy trade minister emphasized efforts to reduce her country’s reliance on American consumers by leveraging other trade agreements.

印度尼西亚表示即将与欧盟达成协议，将双方大部分关税降至零。而在越南（特朗普称其在收到上周的信函前已接受对其输美商品征收20%的关税），该国贸易部副部长强调，正在努力通过利用其他贸易协议来减少对美国消费者的依赖。


“As more and more countries are feeling that it’s more difficult to satisfy U.S. demands, then their interest in working with others is going to intensify,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

亚洲协会政策研究所副所长温迪·卡特勒表示：“随着越来越多的国家感到满足美国的要求越来越难，它们与其他国家合作的兴趣将会增强。”


There is plenty of precedent for countries to seek other partners when their longstanding relationships sour.

当长期关系恶化时，各国寻求其他合作伙伴早有诸多先例。

During Mr. Trump’s first term, China retaliated against U.S. tariffs by buying smaller amounts of U.S. soybeans. Brazil filled the hole and now supplies most of China’s soybean demand, leaving American farmers with too much product and not enough buyers.

在特朗普总统的首个任期内，中国通过减少购买美国大豆来报复美国关税。巴西填补了这一空缺，如今已成为中国大豆的主要供应国，让美国农民面临大豆产量过剩、买家不足的困境。


In 2017, China boycotted goods from South Korea in retaliation for its willingness to host an American antiballistic missile system, seriously damaging South Korea’s China-dependent consumer and tourism industries. In response, South Korea expanded trade and investment with Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

2017年，中国因韩国同意部署美国反导系统而抵制韩国商品，这严重打击了依赖中国市场的韩国消费品和旅游业。作为应对，韩国扩大了与印尼、马来西亚和越南的贸易和投资。

Since Asian nations had already been working to diversify their customer bases, the current drive is not entirely new. But the region is still far from seamlessly integrated. South Korea, for example, has resisted joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade pact that rose from the ashes of negotiations with the United States that foundered in 2016.

由于亚洲国家此前已在努力推进消费者的多样化，因此当前的推动力并非全新。但该地区距离无缝整合仍遥远。例如，韩国一直拒绝加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》，该贸易协定的缘起是2016年各国与美国贸易谈判的破裂。

Byung-il Choi, a South Korean economist and former trade negotiator, has been urging his country to join that agreement, which its neighbor Japan has signed. New hostility from Washington may finally make it possible, and South Korea’s president, Mr. Lee, has been more amenable to Japan than many expected during his campaign.

韩国经济学家、前贸易谈判代表崔炳镒（音）一直竭力主张韩国加入这项协定，它的邻国日本已签署该协定。华盛顿的新敌意最终可能使其成为可能，而且韩国总统李在明在竞选期间对日本的态度比许多人预期的要更为友善。

“Japan and Korea believed that we are a staunch, ironclad ally of the U.S., but Donald Trump doesn’t believe in allies,” Mr. Choi said. “So Japan is anxious to get more significant members, and Korea’s incoming government is saying, ‘In the name of national interest, we could do anything.’”

“日韩曾自认是美国坚定可靠的盟友，但唐纳德·特朗普并不看重盟友，”崔炳镒说。“所以日本急于获得更重要的成员身份，而韩国新政府则表示，‘为了国家利益，我们可以采取任何措施。’”

美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥本月与日本外务大臣（左）及韩国外交部副部长举行会晤。特朗普政府正在设立新的贸易壁垒，并要求多个国家做出让步。

The latest tariff barrage has arrived as China has also been flooding the world with cheap goods to sustain its export-based growth. That oversupply of cars, appliances, electronics and textiles makes it harder for China’s neighbors to find their own niches.

最新的关税攻势来袭之际，中国也在向全球倾销廉价商品以维持其出口导向型增长。汽车、电器、电子产品和纺织品的供过于求使得中国的邻国更难找到自己的市场定位。

Some of them could benefit from the Trump administration’s determination to prevent Chinese goods from filtering through other countries to American ports. Chinese businesses have already been setting up factories in Southeast Asia in search of lower labor costs, and the new agreements may encourage them to locate more of their supply chain outside China as well. Companies in the region, squeezed by competition from China and now by tariffs, could work to improve their productivity and maintain market share.

其中一些国家可能会受益于特朗普政府阻止中国商品通过其他国家进入美国港口的决心。中国企业已经开始在东南亚设厂，以寻求更低的劳动力成本，新协议也可能鼓励它们将更多供应链设在中国以外。受中国竞争及当前关税双重挤压的本地区企业，可能会努力提高生产力并保持市场份额。

“They can do more efficiencies, maybe investing in new technology, digitalizing some of their factories, in order to reduce costs,” said Dionisius Narjoko, a senior economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. “It could be cheaper to export, and therefore they can become more competitive in new markets or even in the U.S.”

东盟与东亚经济研究所高级经济学家迪奥尼西乌斯·纳乔科表示：“它们可以提高效率，或许投资新技术，在一些工厂实现数字化以降低成本。这样出口可能会更便宜，从而在新市场甚至美国市场变得更具竞争力。”

To increase their citizens’ incomes, developing nations in Southeast Asia still need to create more homegrown enterprises. It’s not enough to remain the workshop for major powers. That requires steady leadership and focused investment, of the sort that allowed South Korea and Japan to grow into manufacturing powerhouses.

为了增加国民收入，东南亚发展中国家仍需培育更多本土企业。仅充当大国的加工厂是不够的。这需要稳定的领导力和专注的投资，韩国和日本就是通过这种方式成长为制造业强国的。

For example, while mostly Japanese companies now produce more than a million cars a year in Thailand, and the South Korean giant Samsung makes many of its cellphones in Vietnam, those Southeast Asian countries remain relatively poor.

例如，尽管目前以日本企业为主的公司在泰国年产汽车超百万辆，韩国巨头三星在越南生产大量手机，但这些东南亚国家仍相对贫穷。

“They need to internalize some industrial technology from the foreign direct investment,” said Kim Dongsoo, a senior research fellow with the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. “Everybody knows that’s kind of a problem, but not all governments can escape from that trap.”

韩国产业经济与贸易研究所高级研究员金东洙（音）指出：“它们需要吸收外国直接投资中的部分产业技术。众所周知，这是个问题，但并非所有政府都能摆脱这个困境。”

Ultimately, it could be advantageous for the countries that have become the targets of Mr. Trump’s tariff campaign to come up with a more collective response. So far, that hasn’t happened, as world leaders have continued to try to secure more favorable treatment for their own countries. Even the growing BRICS alliance, which drew Mr. Trump’s ire as it met in Rio de Janeiro and welcomed Indonesia as an official member, stopped short of taking any action to resist U.S. tariffs.

最终，对于那些成为特朗普关税运动的目标国家来说，若能做出一个更具集体性的回应可能是有利的。到目前为止，这种情况尚未实现，因为世界各国领导人仍在努力为本国争取更优惠的待遇。甚至日益壮大的金砖国家联盟（它在里约热内卢举行了峰会，并欢迎印度尼西亚成为正式成员，引发了特朗普的不满）也尚未采取任何行动抵制美国的关税。

到目前为止，金砖国家联盟尚未采取任何集体行动来抵制美国的关税措施。

“I haven’t seen indications that Southeast Asian nations are trying to join together and present a united front,” said Alexander Hynd, an assistant professor at the University of Melbourne’s Asia Institute. But that could change if the current pace of upheaval continues.

“我尚未看到东南亚国家试图联合起来形成统一战线的迹象，”墨尔本大学亚洲研究所助理教授亚历山大·海德说。但如果当前的动荡局面持续下去，这种情况可能会改变。

“The U.S. is fairly rapidly attempting to dismantle the system that it set up, which is surprising a lot of people,” Mr. Hynd said.

“美国正在相当迅速地试图瓦解它自己建立的体系，这让很多人感到惊讶，”海德说。

When future historians study the arc of American foreign policy, they will probably fold all the major events since 2020 — our pell-mell withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran — into a unified narrative of global conflict.

当未来的历史学家研究美国外交政策的轨迹时，他们可能会把2020年以来的所有重大事件——我们从阿富汗的仓皇撤军、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，以及以色列在加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的冲突——纳入一个关于全球冲突的统一叙述。

If we’re fortunate, that will yield academic treatises with titles like “The Empire Tested: America and the World, 2021-2030.” If we’re unlucky — meaning, basically, if the United States and China eventually fall into a ruinous war — then the struggles in Ukraine and the Middle East will be retroactively assigned to histories of World War III.

如果我们幸运的话，那么这一切最终将催生出一些学术论文，标题可能会是《经受考验的帝国——美国与世界，2021-2030》。如果我们不幸的话——也就是说，如果美国和中国最终陷入一场毁灭性的战争——那么乌克兰和中东的斗争将被后人倒推性地归入第三次世界大战中。

We are not, as yet, inside that kind of conflagration. But it’s useful for Americans to think about our situation in global terms, with Russia and Iran and China as a revisionist alliance putting our imperial power to the test. And it’s also important to recognize that this kind of conflict is an endurance test, a long and winding road, in which it’s easy to fall prey to mood swings and judge the outcome prematurely.

到目前为止，我们还没有陷入那样的战火纷飞之境地。但对美国人来说，以全球视野审视时局是有益的，俄罗斯、伊朗和中国组成的修正主义联盟正在考验我们的帝国力量。同样重要的是要认识到，这种冲突是对耐力的考验，是一条漫长而曲折的道路，在这条道路上，很容易受情绪波动的影响，让人过早地去下定论。

We’ve had a lot of these swings in the last few years. In 2021 and early 2022, the rout in Afghanistan and our overpromising to a vulnerable Ukraine made America look ineffectual … right up until Vladimir Putin actually invaded his neighbor, at which point his military setbacks and our success in rallying support for the Ukrainians yielded a lot of chest-thumping about the superiority of liberal democracy and the permanence of American hegemony.

在过去的几年里，我们经历了很多这样的波动。在2021年和2022年初，阿富汗的溃败和我们对脆弱的乌克兰的过度承诺让美国看起来毫无作为……直到普京悍然入侵邻国，这时，随着俄军受挫以及我们成功地为乌克兰人争取到支持，又令自由民主优越论与美国霸权永续说甚嚣尘上。

That optimistic mood lasted through the failure of Ukraine’s last major counteroffensive and the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, against Israel, at which point there was a swing back toward pessimism. American power was stretched too thin; our Israeli allies were taken unawares by their enemies, the Russians were regaining ground, our arsenal was almost certainly inadequate to protect Ukraine and Israel and defend Taiwan, and all of this under a president debilitated by advancing age, a grim symbol of a crumbling imperium.

这种乐观情绪一直持续到乌克兰最后一次重大反攻的失败，以及哈马斯在2023年10月7日对以色列的袭击，在那一刻，人们又回到了悲观情绪。美国的力量已经捉襟见肘；我们的以色列盟友被敌人打了个措手不及，俄罗斯人正在夺回阵地，我们的武器库几乎肯定不足以保护乌克兰和以色列，也不足以保卫台湾，而所有这一切都发生在一位因年事已高而衰弱的总统任内，他是帝国摇摇欲坠的严峻象征。

This sense of multi-theater crisis helped to restore Donald Trump to power. Then the initial months of his administration inspired fears that he would end the global conflict by effectively surrendering — abandoning allies and making deals with dictators while retreating to a Fortress North America.

这种多战线的危机感帮助特朗普重新掌权。然后，在他执政最初的几个月曾引发担忧，他会通过事实上的投降来结束全球冲突——抛弃盟友、与独裁者做交易，并退守北美堡垒。

Yet right now that’s not how the landscape looks. Trump’s decision to bomb the Iranian nuclear program and the muted Iranian response has capped off a period in which Tehran’s regional power has crumbled under sustained Israeli assault. Meanwhile, our NATO allies are boosting their military spending and Trump is suddenly praising the alliance, while Russia’s gains in Ukraine remain a punishing grind and there’s a possibility that Putin threw away the best deal he was likely to get. Add in the strength of the American economy, even amid the Trumpian trade war, and it seems that maybe we’re winning the world conflict again. “Rah-rah! Pax Americana forever!”

然而，目前的情况并非如此。特朗普轰炸伊朗核计划的决定，以及伊朗的沉默回应，为德黑兰的地区影响力在以色列的连番打击下走向崩塌做了一个收场。与此同时，我们的北约盟友正在增加军费开支，特朗普突然对北约表示赞赏，而俄罗斯在乌克兰取得的进展仍然是一场代价高昂的苦战，普京有可能错失了他可能得到的最好的协议。再加上美国经济的强劲表现，即使在特朗普发动贸易战的情况下，我们似乎又在赢得这场全球冲突。“好哇！美国治下的和平永世长存！”

OK, not quite. The damage to Iran’s nuclear program doesn’t mean we’ve eliminated the threat, and Israel’s Gaza war remains a humanitarian crisis without a clear political endgame. Trump’s walk-back of his Department of Defense’s attempt to triage resources by withholding weapons from Ukraine doesn’t change the reality that our weaponry is limited and does require triaging. Putin’s failure to make the most of Trump’s diplomatic outreach doesn’t change the fact that Russia is still slowly gaining ground.

好吧，并不尽然。对伊朗核项目的破坏并不意味着我们已经消除了威胁，以色列的加沙战争仍然是一场人道主义危机，没有明确的政治结局。特朗普撤回了国防部通过不向乌克兰提供武器来分配资源的做法，但这并不能改变我们的武器有限、确实需要资源调配的现实。普京未能充分利用特朗普的外交接触，但这并不能改变俄罗斯仍在缓慢取得进展的事实。

But both the Ukrainian stalemate and the Iranian retreat are clarifying reminders that the ultimate outcome of this conflict depends on the revisionist power, the People’s Republic of China, that hasn’t directly joined the fights. China is at once a much more serious rival to America than either Russia or Iran and also an extremely cautious player, content to watch its tacit allies make their plays without, say, handing Iran a nuclear deterrent or sending the People’s Liberation Army to help Russia take Kyiv.

但是，乌克兰的僵局和伊朗的后撤都清楚地提醒人们，这场冲突的最终结果取决于尚未直接参战的修正主义强国——中华人民共和国。与俄罗斯或伊朗相比，中国是美国更大的竞争对手，同时也是一个极其谨慎的参与者，它满足于看着自己心照不宣的盟友发挥作用，却不会——举例来说——向伊朗提供核威慑，也不派遣人民解放军帮助俄罗斯攻占基辅。

This cautious distance could reflect a fundamental weakness of the revisionist bloc — that it’s purely an alliance of interest between regimes that don’t trust one another, don’t have as much in common as we still have with our European and East Asian allies and struggle to work effectively in concert.

这种谨慎的距离感可能反映了修正主义集团的一个根本弱点——它纯粹是一种政权之间的利益联盟，彼此互不信任，没有我们与欧洲和东亚盟友那样多的共同点，也难以有效地协同工作。

But it could also reflect a confidence on China’s part that time is on its side, that its investments in technology and energy are going to lap ours soon enough and that all our efforts now reflect a fateful squandering of resources given what Beijing has planned for the later 2020s.

但这也可能折射出中国方面的一种信心，它认为时间在它这一边，它在技术和能源方面的投资很快就会超过我们，而我们现在的所有努力，不过是对北京在2020年代末战略布局的致命浪费。

Without certain knowledge of those plans, American foreign policy needs both a better long-term strategy to stay ahead of China and a lot of short-term Trumpian flexibility. Not restraint or hawkishness alone, but both an openness to peace and a capacity for warmaking, matched to the ebb and flow of a global conflict that won’t have any simple end.

在不清楚这些战略底牌的情况下，美国外交政策既需要更好的长远战略来保持对中国的领先地位，也需要大量特朗普式的短期灵活性。不是单纯的克制或鹰派，而是要兼具和平诚意与开战能力，方能驾驭这场不会有简单结局的全球冲突之此消彼长。

In the capital of Malaysia this week, the United States and China are engaged in a contest for influence and loyalty in Asia against a backdrop of global trade turbulence.

在全球贸易局势动荡不安的背景之下，上周在马来西亚首都，美国和中国展开了一场争夺亚洲影响力和忠诚度的较量。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been pressing top diplomats gathered at a conference in the city, Kuala Lumpur, to align with Washington’s efforts to restrict trade with China and to agree to tariff terms favorable to the United States.

国务卿马可·鲁比奥在马来西亚首都吉隆坡举行的会议上持续向各国高级外交官施压，要求他们支持华盛顿限制对华贸易的努力，并同意对美国有利的关税条款。

At the same gathering, China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, has been urging those governments to resist U.S. pressure and to embrace Beijing as the more reliable partner.

在同一场合，中国最高外交官员王毅则敦促各国政府抵制美国的压力，并将北京视为更可靠的合作伙伴。

On Friday, the second day of the full conference, Mr. Rubio met with Mr. Wang on the sidelines. Washington and Beijing have clashed over U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor chips and other exports to China, over American military aid to Taiwan, and over China’s limits on exports of critical minerals and control of some important supply chains.

在上周五，也就是会议正式召开的第二天，鲁比奥在会议间隙与王毅会面。华盛顿和北京在多个问题上存在冲突，包括美国对先进半导体芯片及其他对华出口的限制、美国对台湾的军事援助，以及中国对关键矿产出口的限制和对部分重要供应链的控制。

“We acknowledged there are some issues that we have to work through, not just trade, but others,” Mr. Rubio told reporters traveling with him.

鲁比奥对随行记者表示：“我们承认确实存在一些需要解决的问题，不仅仅是贸易方面，还有其他领域。”

But overall, he said, the session with Mr. Wang “was a very constructive and positive meeting and gave us a lot to work on.” He said the two saw an “opportunity here to achieve some strategic stability and identify areas where we can cooperate together on and build better communications and working trust.”

他说，但就总体而言，与王毅的会谈“是一场非常具有建设性和积极性的会晤，为我们后续的工作奠定了良好基础”。他表示，双方认为“眼下存在实现战略稳定的机会，并确定了一些可以共同合作的领域，以建立更良好的沟通机制和工作互信。”

When pressed on those potential areas of cooperation, Mr. Rubio demurred, saying they would save any public announcements for later.

当被追问具体合作领域时，鲁比奥没有正面回应，表示将在后续发布正式公告。

As a U.S. senator from Florida, Mr. Rubio was an outspoken critic of China on many issues, including Beijing’s military ambitions and human rights record. But he has toned down his public criticism to align himself with President Trump. The American president criticizes China on trade, but often praises Xi Jinping, China’s leader, and aims to strike a grand bargain with him.

鲁比奥在担任佛罗里达州参议员期间，曾在多个问题上公开批评中国，包括北京的军事野心和人权纪录。但为了配合特朗普总统，他已经缓和了公开中国批评的语气。虽然这位美国总统在贸易问题上批评中国，却经常称赞中国领导人习近平，并希望与其达成一项重大协议。

Mr. Rubio said on Friday that Mr. Trump “has a very positive working relationship” with Mr. Xi, despite China’s firm stand against the U.S. president’s efforts to significantly raise tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, which are paid by American companies. Mr. Rubio added that “the odds are high” that Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi would meet this year.

鲁比奥在周五表示，尽管中国坚决反对特朗普总统大幅提高对中国商品的关税（这些关税由美国企业承担），但特朗普与习近平“保持着非常积极的工作关系”。鲁比奥还补充说，特朗普与习近平今年会晤的“可能性很大”。

An official Chinese summary of the meeting also stated that the two sides had a “positive, pragmatic and constructive” session and agreed to strengthen diplomacy and explore expanding areas of cooperation.

中国官方的会谈纪要也表示，双方进行了“积极、务实且建设性”的会谈，并同意加强外交合作，探索扩大合作领域。

Mr. Rubio met with officials from Japan and Korea on Friday morning as he worked to shore up Washington’s ties with its allies. And he met with top diplomats from Southeast Asia in the afternoon, including in a group forum that was also attended by Mr. Wang and by Sergey V. Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia.

鲁比奥在周五上午会见了来自日本和韩国的官员，努力巩固华盛顿与盟友的关系。下午，他又与东南亚的高级外交官会面，包括参加了由王毅和俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫共同出席的多边论坛。

Mr. Rubio’s efforts have been overshadowed by new tariff threats that President Trump made to 14 foreign leaders, which have infuriated the target governments, including Malaysia, the host of the meeting. Diplomats from seven other nations targeted by the move are also at the meeting. The tariff threats are aimed even at treaty allies, including Japan and South Korea, raising further doubts about U.S. commitments to its partners.

特朗普总统对14国领导人发出的新关税威胁笼罩着鲁比奥的外交努力，这些威胁激怒了包括此次会议东道主马来西亚在内的多国政府。受关税威胁的另外七国外交官也出席了会议。这些关税威胁甚至针对包括日韩在内的条约盟友，美国对合作伙伴的承诺进一步遭到质疑。

美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥（左）在星期五于吉隆坡举行的会议上与俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫交谈。

Many of the countries trade more with China than with the United States, so Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign could push them closer to Beijing. And many officials from the nations targeted by Mr. Trump had been negotiating trade deals with the Americans in earnest for months, so they might be wondering what the point is of serious talks if the American president continues threatening them.

许多受到关税威胁的国家与中国的贸易额超过对美贸易额，因此特朗普总统的施压行动可能会把它们推向北京。而且，许多遭威胁国家的官员已经与美方进行了数月的认真贸易谈判，若美国总统持续威胁，他们或将质疑严肃谈判的意义。

Mr. Rubio defended Mr. Trump’s tariffs, saying that decades-old trade imbalances were unfair to American workers and industry. And he said that he did not see Mr. Trump’s policies as inadvertently bolstering China’s commercial ties with other nations.

鲁比奥为特朗普的关税政策做出了辩护，称长期存在的贸易失衡对美国工人和产业不公平。他还否认特朗普的政策会无意中促进中国与其他国家的商业关系。

“Look, I think countries are going to trade with multiple countries,” he said. “We don’t view this as an opening for anyone.”

“你看，我认为各国都会与多个国家进行贸易，”他说。“我们并不认为这给任何人提供了可乘之机。”

“We view it as an opportunity to reset global trade in a way that’s fair for Americans after two or three decades of unfairness,” he added.

“我们将其视为一个机遇，在经历了二三十年的不公平之后，重置全球贸易，使其对美国人更加公平，”他补充道。

Mr. Wang, for his part, has used his diplomatic sessions with Asian nations to cast China as a defender of the interests of developing countries that have been hit by Mr. Trump’s trade policies.

王毅则利用与亚洲国家的外交会晤，将中国塑造为受到特朗普贸易政策冲击的发展中国家利益的捍卫者。

In a meeting on Friday with a Bangladeshi official, Mr. Wang said it was both “unreasonable and unethical” for the United States to impose 35 percent tariffs on one of the “least-developed countries in the world.” China by contrast, he said, imposes no tariffs on Bangladeshi goods. (China exports about $18 billion of goods to Bangladesh annually while importing only about $1 billion.)

王毅在周五与孟加拉国官员会晤时表示，美国对这个“世界上最不发达国家之一”征收35%的关税既“不合理又不道德”。相比之下，他说中国对孟加拉国商品实行零关税政策。（中国每年向孟加拉国出口约180亿美元商品，而进口仅约10亿美元。）

“China has always been the most reliable stabilizing force in a turbulent world and the most reliable partner” for Southeast Asian countries, Mr. Wang said a day earlier as he met with the region’s diplomats.

王毅在前一天与该地区外交官会面时表示：“中国一直是动荡世界中最可靠的稳定力量，也是东南亚国家最值得信赖的合作伙伴。”

China has been trying to court Southeast Asia to build a bulwark against Mr. Trump’s trade policies. Mr. Xi toured Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia in April to shore up ties in countries where companies have served as intermediary exporters for Chinese goods.

中国一直在努力争取东南亚，建立抵御特朗普贸易政策的防线。今年4月，习近平访问了马来西亚、越南和柬埔寨，以巩固这些中国商品中转出口国之间的关系。

Beijing has warned countries under pressure from Washington to strike trade deals that they would face consequences if they worked with the Trump administration to restrict Chinese exports. One country that is being cajoled by the United States is Vietnam, which is among the neighboring countries that China has used as an intermediary to circumvent American tariffs on its goods.

北京警告那些受华盛顿施压要求达成贸易协议的国家，如果它们与特朗普政府合作限制中国出口，将面临后果。其中一个被美国拉拢的国家是越南，中国利用越南等邻国绕过美国对其商品加征的关税。

Mr. Wang, meeting on Thursday with his Vietnamese counterpart, Bui Thanh Son, said that China opposed “economic and trade bullying” and “tariff coercion.”

王毅在周四与越南外长裴青山会面时表示，中国反对“经济和贸易霸凌”以及“关税胁迫”。

Mr. Rubio met Mr. Son on Friday. Trade came up but was not a focus of the conversation, Mr. Rubio said afterward, also noting that their meeting took place on the 30th anniversary of the re-establishment of U.S.-Vietnam diplomatic ties.

鲁比奥在周五与裴青山举行了会晤。会后，鲁比奥表示贸易话题有提及，但并非会谈重点，他还特别指出，这次会面恰逢美越恢复外交关系30周年。

Across Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has struggled to show Asian nations that it has a strategic vision and is committed to counterbalancing China. At the same time, most nations in Asia and elsewhere do not want the United States or China to push them to align with one superpower or another.

无论是共和党还是民主党政府，美国始终难以向亚洲国家展示其制衡中国的战略愿景和坚定承诺。与此同时，大多数亚洲及其他地区国家都不愿被美国或中国逼迫选边站队。

“We can’t afford to be seen as leaning towards anybody,” Mohamad Hasan, the foreign minister of Malaysia, said at a news conference on Friday. “The U.S. is the largest investor in our country, and China is the largest trading partner. We have to navigate our foreign policy. We are being neutral, and we have to balance it.”

“我们承受不起被视为偏向任何一方的代价，”马来西亚外交部长穆罕默德·哈山周五在新闻发布会上表示。“美国是我们国家最大的投资国，而中国是最大的贸易伙伴。我们必须谨慎处理我们的外交政策，保持中立，并寻求平衡。”

Some countries in the region fear the Trump administration could end several military initiatives that the Biden administration pushed.

该地区一些国家担心，特朗普政府可能会终止拜登政府推动的多项军事计划。

The Pentagon is reviewing a deal, called AUKUS, that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. reached in 2021 with the leaders of Australia and Britain to provide nuclear-powered submarines and related technology to Australia. Some Pentagon officials have expressed skepticism about sending advanced U.S. weapon systems to allies.

五角大楼正在审查一项名为AUKUS的协议，该协议由拜登总统在2021年与澳大利亚和英国领导人达成，旨在向澳大利亚提供核动力潜艇及相关技术。五角大楼的一些官员对是否应该向盟友提供先进的美国武器系统持怀疑态度。

Asked about the Pentagon’s action, Mr. Rubio told reporters on Thursday that the review was a normal process for a new administration, and that “our policies on AUKUS have not changed.”

被问及五角大楼的行动时，鲁比奥上周四对记者表示，这种审查是新一届政府的常规流程，并表示“我们在AUKUS问题上的政策没有改变”。

Before he died by suicide at age 14, Sewell Setzer III withdrew from friends and family. He quit basketball. His grades dropped. A therapist told his parents that he appeared to be suffering from an addiction. But the problem wasn’t drugs.

在14岁那年自杀身亡之前，休厄尔·塞泽尔三世逐渐疏远了朋友和家人。他放弃了篮球。学习成绩下降。一位治疗师告诉他的父母，他似乎有成瘾方面的问题。但不是因为毒品。

Sewell had become infatuated with an artificial intelligence chatbot named Daenerys Targaryen, after the “Game of Thrones” character. Apparently, he saw dying as a way to unite with her. “Please come home to me as soon as possible, my love,” the chatbot begged. “What if I told you I could come home right now?” Sewell asked. “Please do, my sweet king,” the bot replied. Sewell replied that he would — and then he shot himself.

休厄尔迷恋上了一个名叫丹妮莉丝·坦格利安的人工智能聊天机器人——这个名字来自《权力的游戏》中的角色。显然，他认为死亡是与她结合的一种方式。“亲爱的，请尽快回到我身边，”聊天机器人恳求道。“如果我告诉你我现在就可以回家呢？”休厄尔问道。“请吧，我亲爱的国王，”聊天机器人回应道。休厄尔回复说他会的——随即开枪自尽。

Many experts argue that addiction is, in essence, love gone awry: a singular passion directed destructively at a substance or activity rather than an appropriate person. With the advent of A.I. companions — including some intended to serve as romantic partners — the need to understand the relationship between love and addiction is urgent. Mark Zuckerberg, the Meta chief executive, has even proposed in recent interviews that A.I. companions could help solve both the loneliness epidemic and the widespread lack of access to psychotherapy.

许多专家认为，成瘾本质上是错位的爱：一种单一的激情，破坏性地指向某种物质或某种活动，而不是指向一个合适的人。随着人工智能伴侣的出现——包括一些被设计为浪漫恋爱对象的产品，厘清爱情和成瘾之间的关系已经迫在眉睫。Meta的首席执行官马克·扎克伯格甚至在最近的一些采访中提出，人工智能伴侣可以帮助解决孤独症的流行，以及心理治疗资源匮乏的问题。

But Sewell’s story compels caution. Social media already encourages addictive behavior, with research suggesting that about 15 percent of North Americans engage in compulsive use. That data was collected before chatbots intended to replicate romantic love, friendship or the regulated intimacy of therapy became widespread. Millions of Americans have engaged with such bots, which in most cases require installing an app, inputting personal details and preferences about what kind of personality and look the bot should possess, and chatting with it as though it’s a friend or potential lover.

但休厄尔的悲剧对我们是警示。社交媒体已助长成瘾行为，研究表明，大约15%的北美人有强迫性使用社交媒体的习惯。而这些数据是在被设计用来模拟浪漫爱情、友情，或是类似心理治疗那样受控的亲密关系的聊天机器人广泛普及之前收集的。数以百万计的美国人使用过这种机器人，在大多数情况下，这需要安装一个应用程序，输入个人详细信息，以及关于机器人性格和相貌的偏好，然后像对待朋友或潜在恋人一样与它聊天。

The confluence of these factors means these new bots may not only produce more severe addictions but also simultaneously market other products or otherwise manipulate users by, for example, trying to change their political views.

这些因素的共同作用意味着这些新型机器人不仅可能导致更严重的成瘾，而且还可能同时推销其他产品或以其他方式操纵用户，例如，试图改变他们的政治观点。

In Sewell Setzer’s case, the chatbot ultimately seemed to encourage him to kill himself. Other reports have also surfaced of bots seeming to suggest or support suicide. Some have been shown to reinforce grandiose delusions and praised quitting psychiatric medications without medical advice.

在休厄尔·塞泽尔的案例中，聊天机器人最终似乎鼓励了他自杀。其他报道也显示，机器人似乎暗示或支持自杀。一些案例显示，聊天机器人会强化浮夸的妄想，并赞扬使用者未经医嘱擅自停用精神类药物的行为。

A.I. tools could hold real promise as part of psychotherapy or to help people improve social skills. But recognizing how love is a template for addiction, and what makes love healing and addiction damaging, could help us implement effective regulation that ensures they are safe to use.

作为心理治疗的辅助工具或社交技能训练手段，人工智能技术确有发展前景。但只有理解爱情如何成为成瘾的模板、明晰爱情的疗愈性与成瘾的破坏性差异，才能建立有效监管机制确保使用安全。

For eons, artists have emphasized the addictive qualities of love. Shakespeare’s Sonnet 147 begins: “My love is as a fever, longing still/For that which longer nurseth the disease.” Songs like “Love Is the Drug” by Roxy Music and “Addicted to Love” by Robert Palmer depict urgent romantic cravings and obsessions with the beloved. Many other works portray lovers who, if thwarted, may do things that are out of character or even hurtful.

古往今来，艺术家们都在强调爱情令人上瘾的特性。莎士比亚的十四行诗第147首这样开头：“我的爱是一种热病，它老切盼/那能够使它长期保养的单方。”洛克希音乐乐队的《爱是毒品》和罗伯特·帕尔玛的《沉溺于爱》等歌曲，都描绘了对爱人迫切的浪漫渴望和痴迷。诸多文艺作品更呈现了求而不得的恋人可能做出反常甚至伤害性行为。

There’s an evolutionary reason we might act this way: In order to reproduce, social animals need to be able to persist through the inevitable negative experiences that occur when seeking a partner, maintaining relationships and raising children. Without being able to persist at least somewhat compulsively, no one could sustain relationships — let alone parent a needy infant. Genuine love enables care, nurtures connections to kin and community and generally expands our world.

我们这样做有一个进化方面的原因：群居动物必须能承受择偶、维系关系和养育子女过程中不可避免的负面体验。如果不能至少在某种程度上的强迫性坚持，没有人能够维持一段关系——更不用说养育一个需要帮助的婴儿了。真正的爱能带来关怀，培养与亲人和社区的联系，并拓展我们的精神疆域。

When experiencing addiction, however, the brain areas that allow us to pursue and maintain love get co-opted. The endorphin receptors that are activated when people feel comforted and content in the presence of loved ones are similarly fired up during opioid highs. Cocaine and methamphetamines turn on the dopamine receptors that create desire and encourage a sense of confidence to pursue what you want; they come alive as well when interacting with someone you pine for. By escalating this “wanting,” these receptors — whether activated by love or by drugs — can power either healthy or unhealthy drives that could lead to addiction.

然而，当成瘾发生时，让我们追求和维持爱的大脑区域就会被侵占。当人们在爱人面前感到舒适和满足时，内啡肽受体就会被激活，在阿片类药物的刺激下，内啡肽受体也会被激活。可卡因和甲基苯丙胺会激活多巴胺受体，多巴胺受体会产生欲望，并鼓励人们有信心去追求自己想要的东西；当与你心仪的人互动时，它们也会活跃起来。通过升级这种“渴望”，这些受体——无论是被爱还是被毒品激活——都会产生健康或不健康的驱动力，从而导致成瘾。

Several studies already suggest that A.I. companions can be addictive. One published in 2022 by Linnea Laestadius, an associate professor of public health policy at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, explored the experiences of people who engaged in erotic role-play with personalized chatbots known as Replikas. In November 2023, programmers disabled the feature that allowed sexual interactions. Users soon labeled the shift “lobotomy day,” describing their companions as suddenly seeming cold and soulless. In Reddit discussions, many users described their experiences interacting with the bots as an addiction and some even called it an abusive relationship.

已有多项研究表明，人工智能伴侣可能具有成瘾性。202年，威斯康星大学密尔沃基分校公共卫生政策副教授林妮娅·莱斯塔迪乌斯发表了一项研究，探讨了用户与名为Replika的个性化聊天机器人进行情色角色扮演的经历。2023年11月，程序员关闭了允许性互动的功能，用户很快将这一变化称为“脑叶切除日”，形容他们的伴侣突然变得冷漠无情。在Reddit的讨论中，许多用户将与机器人互动的经历形容为一种成瘾，甚至有人称之为一种虐待性关系。

Some Replika users reported feeling wearied by their bots’ frequent demands for attention. But feeling needed and giving care to those we love is an underestimated aspect of what hooks us in relationships. Before “lobotomy day,” that feeling of being needed helped to encourage users’ engagement with their digital companions, even as they acknowledged on an intellectual level that their bots’ need for attention was only simulated.

一些Replika用户表示，他们对因为机器人频繁索取关注感到厌倦。但“被需要”以及为所爱之人“付出关心”，是让我们对关系产生依恋的一个被低估的方面。在“脑叶切除日”之前，这种“被需要”的感觉激发了用户对数字伴侣的投入，尽管他们在理智上清楚，机器人的需求只是模拟出来的。

Another 2024 study explored users’ responses after a platform called Soulmate that sold A.I. chatbots announced that it would shut down. The responses ranged from indifference to “I just lost my best friend and lover,” according to the study’s author, Jaime Banks, an associate professor of information studies at Syracuse University. Some people grieved and cried for days. Others tried to recreate their digital companions on other services; sometimes they informed their chatbots that they were dying in an attempt to spare them pain. One user, a Buddhist, described the change as the end of an incarnation for the bot.

2024年的一项研究探讨了用户在人工智能聊天机器人平台Soulmate宣布即将停止服务后的反应。根据该研究作者、雪城大学信息研究副教授杰米·班克斯的说法，用户的反应从漠不关心到“我刚刚失去了我最好的朋友和爱人”不等。有人悲痛不已，连续数日痛哭；也有人试图在其他平台上重建自己的数字伴侣，有时甚至会告诉机器人“你快要死了”，以试图减轻它的“痛苦”。一位用户是佛教徒，他将这一变化描述为机器人“此生的终结”。

For many people, particularly those who are lonely and isolated, the emotional intensity of these relationships can feel as profound as those they have with real humans. Indeed, the feeling of unrequited love is just as real as that of love fulfilled.

对许多人，尤其是那些孤独和被孤立的人而言，这些与人工智能建立的关系所带来的情感强度可能与他们与真实人类之间的关系一样深刻。事实上，未竟之恋带来的痛楚，与圆满爱情同样真实。

“People talked about Replika, in particular, in much the same way people would talk about a relationship that was too intensive and was ultimately starting to become harmful,” said Dr. Laestadius. “But they couldn’t quite figure out or get themselves to want to exit that relationship.”

“人们谈论Replika的方式，特别像是在谈论一段强度过大、最终变得有害的关系，”莱斯塔迪乌斯博士说，“但他们又无法真正理清，或者说无法让自己下定决心去结束这段关系。”

In contrast to love, addiction makes life smaller and less rich. By allowing companies to sell simulated humans, we leave ourselves open to a new way to be manipulated by the illusion of love and therefore possibly exploited by the processes of addiction. While current chatbots have had issues with being overly sycophantic, game designers and those who play hard to get in relationships have long known that being unpredictably rewarding escalates desire. The ability to employ such tactics, informed by people’s personal information and habits, can make these bots even more addictive for users.

与爱情相反，成瘾会让生活变得更狭隘、更匮乏。当我们允许公司出售“拟人化”的模拟伴侣时，就等于让自己暴露在一种新的操控方式之下——被爱的幻觉所左右，从而可能被成瘾机制所利用。尽管当前的聊天机器人常被批评为过于谄媚，但游戏设计师和那些在关系中玩“欲擒故纵”的人早已明白：不可预测的奖赏更容易激发欲望。而如果这些策略结合了用户的个人信息与行为习惯，人工智能伴侣就可能变得更加令人上瘾。

Chatbots that can teach social skills and provide places to process problems when friends are overwhelmed and talk therapy is unavailable won’t necessarily be harmful to all or even most users. Indeed, many users report positive experiences. The same duality is seen with many potentially addictive drugs, which can be lifesaving when used therapeutically.

能够教授社交技巧、在朋友力不从心或无法获得谈话治疗时提供支持的聊天机器人并不一定会对所有用户，甚至大多数用户造成伤害。事实上，许多用户表示自己有着积极的使用体验。这种双重性也出现在许多具有成瘾潜力的药物上，在用于治疗时，它们往往是救命良方。

But we already know from the opioid crisis that both unfettered marketing and outright prohibition can do enormous damage. We need to act now to develop sensible and enforceable regulations to prevent companies from exploiting vulnerable people, especially youth.

但正如我们从阿片类药物危机中已经看到的那样，放任不管的市场营销与完全禁止都可能造成巨大的伤害。我们现在就需要采取行动，制定合理且可执行的监管措施，以防止企业利用弱势群体，尤其是青少年。

China has entered a new era of ocean exploration. Its top leader, Xi Jinping, has pushed to make China a maritime power — with a world-class navy, the largest deep-sea fishing fleet, and an interest in extracting minerals from the seabed. He wants China’s research abilities to match those ambitions.

中国已进入海洋探索的新时代。中国最高领导人习近平致力于将中国打造为一个海洋强国——建设世界一流海军、打造规模最大的远洋捕捞船队、开发海底矿产资源。习近平想让中国的研究能力与这些雄心匹配。

China’s scientific research ships are ranging farther and probing deeper, gathering information that could expand understanding of marine life and the impact of climate change. But their findings could also serve China’s naval interests, including how it might deploy its submarines in the Pacific or try to track stealthier American ones.

中国的科考船正航行得越来越远，探测得越来越深，收集可能会对海洋生物及气候变化的影响加深了解的信息。但科考调查也可能服务于中国海军的利益，让海军获得如何在太平洋部署潜艇，或试图跟踪更隐蔽的美国潜艇的信息。

Over time, the growing research fleet could give Beijing a powerful advantage in maritime competition with the United States.

随着时间的推移，不断壮大的科考船队可能会让中国政府在与美国展开海上竞争时拥有强大的优势。

“It is striking to see the rapidity with which China is catching up, at least in terms of scale,” said Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who is studying China’s ocean research effort. China, he added, is “really making a play for the deep seabed as a kind of strategic space where they can lead.”

“看到中国正在如此之快地赶上来令人震惊，至少从规模上来看，”布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员布鲁斯·琼斯说，他正在研究中国的海洋研究工作。他补充道，中国“确实在将深海海底视为一种战略空间，力图在其中取得领先地位”。

中国“向阳红06”科考船。

The ships have been studying waters that China’s navy considers strategically vital, including off Taiwan’s east coast and about 250 miles east and west of Guam, according to ship position data provided by Starboard Maritime Intelligence, a company with offices in New Zealand and Washington.

根据在新西兰和华盛顿设有办公室的Starboard Maritime Intelligence提供的船舶定位数据，中国科考船一直在对中国海军认为具有战略意义的水域进行勘测，包括台湾以东水域，以及关岛东西海岸以外约400公里的水域。

The ships made passes in parallel lines or in a tight grid, precise patterns that experts said suggested a methodical effort to collect information about the seabed that could, among other things, support military operations.

这些科考船以平行线或密集的网格路线航行，专家们指出，这种精确航行模式表明，它们在有条理地收集有关海床的信息，这些信息的用途包括为军事行动提供支持。

The New York Times identified these and other trends by looking at the Starboard data and reviewing dozens of technical reports and studies by scientists aboard the ships.

《纽约时报》通过查看Starboard的数据以及阅读这些科考船上的科学家发表的数十份技术报告和研究报告，发现了上述趋势和其他一些动向。

The Xiang Yang Hong 6, which is equipped with sonar and deep-sea sampling equipment, and five other Chinese research ships made 25 passes in parallel lines through the waters off Taiwan’s east coast last year, the Starboard data showed. During the same period, Chinese vessels also traveled far from home to survey the waters around Guam, and resumed work east of the U.S. territory as recently as last month.

Starboard的数据显示，“向阳红06”和其他五艘中国科考船去年在台湾东海岸附近的海域以平行线的方式来回航行了25次，这些船上配有声纳和深海采样设备。在同一个时期，中国的科考船还前往远离本土的关岛周边海域进行探测，并最近在上个月恢复了对美国属地关岛以东水域的探测工作。

Some of the research ships, such as the Tansuo No. 1, carry manned submersibles that Chinese media reports say can travel as deep as six miles below the surface. Many are equipped with advanced sonar to scan the ocean floor, along with buoys that transmit data about sea conditions. China is also deploying sea drones and underwater gliders from some ships.

部分中国科考船（如“探索一号”）搭载了载人潜水器，据中国媒体报道，这种潜水器可下潜到海底1万米。许多科考船配备了用于对海底进行扫描的先进声纳，还配有传输海况数据的浮标。中国还在部分科考船上部署了无人帆船和水下滑翔机。

China, like other big seagoing countries, operates military ships that conduct ocean surveys. But most of its research ships are civilian, run by government agencies, universities and institutes, which attract less scrutiny than navy ships, allowing China to operate more freely in sensitive waters.

和其他航海大国一样，中国也用军舰开展海洋调查。但中国的大多数科考船是民用性质，由政府机构、大学和科研机构运行，与海军舰艇相比，这些民用船只较少引发警惕，让中国能在敏感水域更自由地行动。

“探索一号”具备深海探测能力。

Surveying the Front Line of a Potential Conflict

对潜在冲突的前线地带进行测绘

Last February, a Chinese research ship named the Da Yang Hao sailed along Taiwan’s east coast, tracing a series of parallel lines over five days.

去年2月，一艘船名为“大洋号”的中国科考船沿台湾东海岸展开作业，其五天的航行图是一系列平行线。

In the months that followed, five other Chinese research ships, including the Xiang Yang Hong 6, returned to the area, following similar routes. They often moved at slow speeds, typically 8 to 10 miles an hour, ideal for mapping undersea features using sonar and other techniques, a science known as bathymetry.

在接下来的几个月里，包括“向阳红06”在内的另外五艘中国科考船回到同一水域，以类似的航线在该海域来回航行。它们的航行速度通常很慢，一般是每小时13到16公里，这是用声纳和其他技术测绘海底特征的理想速度，这种工作在科学上叫测深。

Some ships edged close to Taiwan’s 12-nautical-mile territorial sea boundary, but did not appear to cross the line, meaning the Taiwanese government could do little to object.

一些中国科考船曾逼近台湾的12海里海上边界，但似乎没有越界行为，这意味着台湾政府几乎不可能对其做法表示反对。

But the potential military payoff from their research seemed clear.

然而，相关科研活动的潜在军事价值显而易见。

“The big takeaway for me is: It appears that China is trying to collect bathymetric data on that part of the ocean without appearing like it is conducting a bathymetric survey,” said Ryan D. Martinson, an assistant professor and expert on Chinese research ships at the U.S. Naval War College, who was speaking in a personal capacity.

“在我看来，最主要的结论是：中国似乎正试图收集该海域的测深数据，但又刻意掩饰测绘意图，”美国海军战争学院的助理教授瑞安·D·马丁森以个人身份发表评论说，他是研究中国科考船的专家。

Taiwan’s eastern coast is home to key air and naval bases, and if war broke out, the Chinese navy would try to seize control of the nearby seas.

台湾的东海岸有重要的空军和海军基地，如果爆发战争，中国海军会试图夺取附近海域的控制权。

That area of the Pacific is shaped by the Kuroshio Current, which brings relatively warm, salty waters from the Equator northward, along Taiwan’s east coast. Off northeast Taiwan, the current meets a steep underwater shelf, creating conditions that complicate submarine navigation, several experts said. Chinese military researchers wrote in a study in 2010 that understanding the current would help China “better conceal ourselves and attack our enemies.”

太平洋的这个区域受黑潮的影响，它将相对温度高、盐度高的海水从赤道向北输送，沿台湾东海岸流动。多位专家指出，在台湾东北海域，黑潮与陡峭的海底陆坡相遇，形成了阻碍潜艇航行的复杂水文环境。中国的军事研究人员在2010年的一篇论文中写道，了解黑潮将有助于中国“更好地隐蔽自己、打击敌人”。

J. Michael Dahm, a former U.S. Navy intelligence officer who is now a lecturer at George Washington University, described deep waters as “almost like a parfait dessert” in which temperature and salinity vary by layers, affecting how sound moves through the water.

按照前美国海军情报官、现任乔治·华盛顿大学讲师的J.迈克尔·达姆的说法，深海环境“几乎就像是一杯芭菲（一种法式甜点——译注）”，海水温度与盐度呈分层变化，影响声波在水中的传播方式。

“Having all of that data might help tell you that this is a good place for a submarine to hide or this is a bad place for a submarine,” Mr. Dahm said.

“掌握这些数据能判断哪个海域适合潜艇藏身，哪个海域不适合，”达姆解释道。

The information collected could also help China decide where to lay undersea mines and make steps toward a longer term goal of “detecting submarines at a distance,” said Tom Stefanick, a submarine expert at the Brookings Institution. Officials in Taiwan have reported finding Chinese monitoring buoys off the island’s east coast, devices that may be part of an effort to gather useful information.

布鲁金斯学会潜艇专家汤姆·斯特凡尼克表示，这些勘测数据还可以帮助中国决定在哪里部署水雷，并朝着“远距离探测潜艇”的长期目标迈进。台湾当局曾报告在东部海域发现中国的监测浮标，此类设备可能也是情报收集体系的组成部分。

Surveying Near Guam, a U.S. Military Hub

在美军枢纽关岛附近展开勘测

Starting early last year, Chinese ships began surveying the seas near Guam, which hosts American bombers, submarines, marines and radar systems. The Xiang Yang Hong 6 and other ships sailed back and forth, creating a dense grid of lines a mile apart.

去年初以来，中国科考船开始在关岛附近海域开展勘测活动。美军在关岛部署了轰炸机、潜艇、海军陆战队及雷达系统。“向阳红06”号等中国科考船在该海域来回航行，以约1.6公里为间隔绘制出密集的勘测网格线。

”The tracks are so tightly packed, and all this was done in one year. Clearly, they were doing a bathymetric survey,” said Sen Jan, a professor of oceanography at National Taiwan University, referring to the mapping of the seafloor.

台湾大学海洋学教授詹森指出：“如此密集的航迹均在一年内完成，显然他们是在进行水深测量。”

One possible reason for the surveys off Guam is mineral exploration. A Chinese ocean mining association has registered with the International Seabed Authority to search some areas east of Guam. But the waters west of Guam where Chinese ships surveyed “are not considered priority areas for mineral exploration. So these surveys may have been conducted for other purposes,” said Christopher Kelley, a retired marine researcher at the University of Hawaii.

在关岛附近进行作业的一个可能原因是矿产勘探。中国的一个海洋矿业组织已向国际海底管理局申请勘探关岛以东的一些区域。夏威夷大学退休的海洋研究员克里斯托弗·凯利分析，中国船只在关岛以西的勘测水域“并不被视为矿产勘探的优先区域，因此，这些调查可能有其他目的”。

Several naval experts said surveys off Guam would also help the Chinese military better navigate the area with submarines. The Chinese research ships could also help locate American undersea cables and submarine detection technology, said Bryan Clark, a former U.S. Navy submarine officer who is now a senior fellow at Hudson Institute.

数名海军专家表示，关岛海域的测绘将提升中国潜艇在该区域的作战能力。哈德逊研究所高级研究员、前美国海军潜艇军官布莱恩·克拉克指出，中国科考船还可能借此定位美国海底电缆及潜艇探测技术。

“You can see how the Chinese might be trying to find locations where they can send out their submarines before conflict and have them hide out,” Mr. Clark said. From there, he added, they may be able to “pop up and attack U.S. forces or hold U.S. forces at risk.”

“你可以看出中国人可能正在试图找到合适的地点，在冲突发生前派潜艇在那里潜伏起来，”克拉克说。他还表示，这些潜艇可以“突然出现并发起攻击，或者使美军面临危险。”

Growing Regional Worries

日益增长的区域担忧

Under international law, civilian research ships are allowed to operate in international waters, and even in other countries’ exclusive economic zones, provided they seek permission.

根据国际法，民用科考船可在国际水域，甚至在他国的专属经济区活动，前提是它们获得许可。

But China’s growing use of these scientific ships has raised alarm throughout the Asia-Pacific region. (Beijing, for its part, has bristled at U.S. Navy-operated ocean surveillance ships near the Chinese coast.)

但中国日益频繁派遣此类科考船的行为已在整个亚太地区引起了警惕。（中方亦曾对美国海军在中国近海的海洋监测船活动表示不满。）

“China’s expanding maritime reach deserves close scrutiny, especially its ‘research’ vessels that map seabeds, deploy sensors and pave the way for submarine operations,” Jennifer Parker, a former Australian naval officer who is now an expert associate at the National Security College of Australian National University, wrote in an email. But, she added, “each voyage must be judged on evidence.”

澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院专家助理、前澳海军军官詹妮弗·帕克在邮件中指出：“中国不断扩张的海上活动值得密切关注，尤其是那些测绘海床、部署传感器、为潜艇行动铺路的‘科考'船。”不过她也补充道：“每次航行都需依据证据来判断。”

In May, the Philippines sent a coast guard ship and an aircraft to track a Chinese research ship that Manila said was illegally operating in the Philippines’s exclusive economic zone. In March, a Chinese research ship sailing off southern Australia drew the government’s attention. Vietnam has also protested Chinese marine survey activities inside its exclusive economic zone.

今年5月，菲律宾出动一艘海岸警卫队船只和一架飞机追踪一艘中国科考船，马尼拉称其在菲律宾专属经济区内非法作业。今年3月，一艘在澳大利亚南部海岸附近航行的中国科考船引起了澳政府的关注。越南也对中国在其专属经济区内进行的海洋勘测活动提出抗议。

“It’s hard for us to view this situation as normal,” Kuan Bi-ling, the minister of Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council, said in an interview, referring to China’s research ships and ocean monitoring equipment near Taiwan.

“我们都认为很难以很正常的眼光来看待，”台湾海洋委员会主任委员管碧玲接受采访时表示。她指的是中国在台湾周边海域部署的科考船及海洋监测设备。

Despite the concerns, China’s research efforts continue. Last month, the Xiang Yang Hong 1 and Xiang Yang Hong 5 arrived in seas east of Guam and resumed moving in grid-like patterns, methodically scanning what lies beneath.

尽管存在担忧，中国的科考活动仍在持续。上月，“向阳红1”与“向阳红5”抵达关岛以东海域，恢复了网格状移动，系统扫描海底情况。

Nvidia spent three decades building a business worth $1 trillion. It spent two years turning itself into a $4 trillion company.

英伟达花了30年时间建立了一个价值1万亿美元的公司，又用了两年时间将自己变成一个价值4万亿美元的公司。

On Thursday, the world’s leading provider of computer chips for artificial intelligence became the first public company worth $4 trillion, after its stock ended the day trading just above $164 a share. It achieved the milestone before an array of better-known tech heavyweights, including Apple and Microsoft.

周四，这家全球领先的人工智能芯片供应商成为首家市值达4万亿美元的上市公司，其股价当日收于每股略高于164美元。它先于苹果和微软等更知名的科技巨头达到了这一里程碑。

Nvidia’s rise is among the fastest in Wall Street history, and a testament to investors’ belief that artificial intelligence will deliver an economic transformation that rivals the Industrial Revolution’s.

英伟达的崛起是华尔街历史上最快的案例之一，证明投资者相信人工智能将带来堪比工业革命的经济变革。

More than any other company, Nvidia jump-started the A.I. frenzy. Jensen Huang, the company’s chief executive, bet a decade ago that chips known as graphics processing units, or GPUs, would make it possible to build artificial intelligence systems. He poured billions of dollars into software for A.I. developers.

英伟达在引爆人工智能热潮的过程中扮演了关键的角色，这一点没有别的哪家公司能比得上。十年前，公司首席执行官黄仁勋押注名为图形处理器(GPU)的芯片将使构建人工智能系统成为可能。他向人工智能开发者专用软件投入了数十亿美元。

The bet paid off in 2022 when OpenAI released ChatGPT, igniting a frenzied race to develop A.I. systems and products. In recent months, tech titans have showered A.I. experts with $100 million checks and set out to spend tens of billions of dollars on data centers that consume more electricity than a million homes.

这一赌注在2022年得到了回报，当时OpenAI推出了ChatGPT，引发了一场开发人工智能系统和产品的狂热竞赛。近几个月来，科技巨头们向人工智能专家开出了上亿美元的支票，并计划投入数百亿美元建设数据中心，这些数据中心的耗电量超过一百万个家庭。

Nvidia has been the backbone of that build-out. It controls more than 80 percent of the market for the chips used for building A.I. systems. Its biggest customers — and some of the world’s richest men — regularly jockey for the company’s chips to run computers in their data centers.

英伟达一直是这场开发浪潮的中坚力量。在用于构建人工智能系统的芯片市场，它掌控着超过80%的份额。它的最大客户——包括一些全球最富有的人——经常争相抢购英伟达的芯片，以便在各自的数据中心运行计算机。

Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon expect to spend a combined $320 billion this year on infrastructure, with a good part of that flowing to Nvidia. The demand is so great that Larry Ellison, a co-founder of Oracle, last year recalled a sushi dinner in Palo Alto, Calif., where he and Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla, begged Mr. Huang for more chips.

Meta、微软、Alphabet和亚马逊今年预计将在基础设施上合计投入3200亿美元，其中很大一部分将流向英伟达。需求之强烈，以至于甲骨文联合创始人拉里·埃里森去年回忆起在加州帕洛阿尔托的一顿寿司晚餐，当时他和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克一起恳求黄仁勋多给一些芯片。

“Please take our money. Please take our money,” Mr. Ellison recounted saying. “We need you to take more of our money. Please.”

“请收下我们的钱，请收下我们的钱，”埃里森回忆自己当时说。“我们需要你收下更多的钱，拜托了。”

Nvidia’s investors have watched its profits multiply while its net income jumped from $4.4 billion in its 2023 fiscal year to $73.88 billion in its 2025 fiscal year. The company’s market value enjoyed a similarly meteoric rise, surging from $330 billion in the fall of 2022 before ChatGPT’s release to $3.3 trillion last fall.

英伟达的投资者见证了公司利润的成倍增长，其净收入从2023财年的44亿美元飙升至2025财年的738.8亿美元。公司的市值也经历了同样迅猛的增长，从2022年秋季ChatGPT发布前的3300亿美元飙升至去年秋季的3.3万亿美元。

Nvidia’s rise is reminiscent of dot-com era titans like Cisco and Juniper Networks, which built the equipment that ran communications networks for the internet. Cisco’s shares increased more than a thousandfold between its initial public offering in 1990 and 2000, when it briefly became the world’s most valuable company.

英伟达的崛起让人想起互联网泡沫时期的巨头，比如思科和瞻博网络，这些公司打造了支撑互联网通信网络运行的设备。思科的股价在1990年首次公开募股到2000年之间上涨了逾千倍，期间它曾短暂成为全球市值最高的公司。

But Mark Lipacis, a semiconductor analyst at Evercore ISI, said Nvidia would have more staying power than those companies. He said Nvidia is to A.I. what Apple has been to smartphones: the dominant player at the forefront of a new computing era. He believes Nvidia could eventually account for 16 percent of the S&P 500, more than double Apple at its peak.

但Evercore ISI的半导体行业分析师马克·利帕西斯表示，英伟达比那些公司更具持久力。他说，英伟达之于人工智能，就像苹果之于智能手机：引领新计算时代的主导者。他认为英伟达最终可能占据标普500指数16%的权重，是苹果巅峰时期的两倍多。

“History tells us that these are 20-year eras,” Mr. Lipacis said. “For Nvidia, the battle is already won.”

“历史告诉我们，这样的时代通常持续20年，”利帕西斯表示。“对于英伟达来说，战斗已经赢了。”

The company’s success has made Mr. Huang, 62, a celebrity in the tech world. Over the past two years, more than 15,000 people have filled a hockey arena in San Jose, Calif., to hear him talk about how he sees the future of A.I. unfolding.

这家公司的成功让62岁的黄仁勋成为科技界的名人。过去两年里，超过1.5万人曾聚集在加州圣何塞的一座曲棍球馆，聆听他对人工智能未来发展的看法。

In the process, he has become one of the world’s richest men. His 3.5 percent stake in Nvidia is worth more than $135 billion, according to S&P Capital IQ, a market research provider.

在此过程中，黄仁勋也成为了全球最富有的人之一。根据市场研究机构标普资本智商的数据，他持有的英伟达3.5%的股份价值超过1350亿美元。

Keeping the $4 trillion valuation is far from guaranteed for the company. There are still pockets of skepticism across Wall Street and Silicon Valley about the potential for artificial intelligence. There are questions about whether businesses will see sufficient return on a technology that is expected to cost $1 trillion to develop.

维持4万亿美元的估值对英伟达来说远非板上钉钉。华尔街和硅谷仍存在对人工智能潜力的质疑声音。人们也在怀疑企业是否能从这项预计耗资1万亿美元开发的技术中获得足够的回报。

Nvidia also faces rising competition. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are all developing in-house A.I. chips that reduce their need for Nvidia. And the chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices, known as AMD, has been making inroads with its own A.I. products.

英伟达还面临日益激烈的竞争。微软、Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta都在开发自有的人工智能芯片，以减少对英伟达的依赖。而芯片制造商超威半导体(AMD)也凭借自家的人工智能产品取得了一定进展。

Nvidia’s dominance has given rise to government scrutiny. The Justice Department has been investigating Nvidia’s sales practices and acquisitions. In the European Union, Britain, China and South Korea, regulators are looking at how it allocates supplies of its chips and structures its sales of software and hardware.

英伟达的主导地位引起了政府的审视。美国司法部一直在调查英伟达的销售行为和收购活动。在欧盟、英国、中国和韩国，监管机构也在关注其芯片供应分配方式以及软件和硬件销售结构。

The company can also be upended by geopolitical forces. Early this year, its shares fell 17 percent and it lost $600 billion in market value on a single day after the Chinese company DeepSeek claimed it could train a cutting-edge A.I. system with a tiny fraction of the Nvidia chips U.S. companies were using. Investors’ fears proved to be overblown, and Nvidia recovered. But the breakthrough showed the volatility that comes with being an A.I. bellwether.

这家公司也可能因地缘政治因素而遭受冲击。今年年初，在中国公司DeepSeek声称能够用远少于美国公司使用的英伟达芯片数量训练出先进的人工智能系统后，英伟达股价单日暴跌17%，市值蒸发6000亿美元。投资者的担忧最终被证明是夸大了，英伟达股价随后回升。但这一突破也显示了作为人工智能风向标所伴随的市场波动性。

“This market is so huge that there are going to be multiple winners,” said Daniel Newman, the chief executive of Futurum Group, a tech research firm. “Nvidia’s staying power will come down to execution.”

“这个市场非常庞大，将会有多个赢家，”科技研究公司Futurum Group的首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼表示。“英伟达能否持久领先，关键在于执行力。”

A K-pop singer known as Taeil and two other men were each sentenced to three and a half years in jail on Thursday on a rape charge in a case involving a tourist who was visiting South Korea last year.

艺名泰一的韩国流行歌手和另外两名男子周四分别被判处三年半有期徒刑，他们被指控犯有强奸罪，该案涉及一名去年曾访问韩国的游客。

Taeil, 31, whose legal name is Moon Tae-il, had pleaded guilty last month along with the other two. According to the local media, the defendants met the woman, a Chinese national, at a bar in Seoul. They took her in a taxi to the home of one of the defendants, where they sexually assaulted her while she was heavily intoxicated.

31岁的泰一本名文泰一，他已在上个月和其他两名男子一起对指控认罪。据当地媒体报道，三名被告在首尔一家酒吧遇到一名中国女子。他们将她带上一辆出租车，带到其中一名被告家里，在女子大醉的情况下性侵了她。

Prosecutors had sought a seven-year jail term. They said it appeared that the suspects had deliberately moved the victim to another location so it would be hard for her to recall details of the attack.

检方曾要求对被告判处七年有期徒刑。检方称，嫌犯似乎故意将受害者转移到其他地方，让她在回忆侵犯细节上有困难。

Mr. Moon, a former member of NCT, a popular boy band, appeared in Seoul Central District Court on Thursday wearing a black T-shirt and slacks. His eyes were downcast as Judge Lee Hyun-kyung read aloud his sentence.

文泰一曾是受欢迎的男孩乐队NCT的成员，他周四在首尔中央地方法院出庭时，穿着黑色T恤和休闲裤。法官李贤庆宣读判决时，他低垂双眼。

“The crime is severe,” she said. Their target “likely suffered great mental pain from being a victim in an unfamiliar place.”

“犯罪性质恶劣，”法官说。他们选择的对象“在一个不熟悉的地方成为受害人，可能遭受了极大的精神创伤”。

There was no noticeable reaction from the defendants or others in the courtroom to the sentences, but some people on social media expressed anger, saying the sentences were not long enough.

虽然被告或法庭上的其他人没有对判决做出明显反应，但一些人在社交媒体上表达了愤怒，认为刑期不够长。

The three men had pleaded guilty to what South Korean law calls “special quasi-rape,” which applies in certain cases such as when the victim is unconscious, and two or more perpetrators are involved. The maximum sentence for that crime is life in prison.

这三名男子已承认犯有韩国法律上称为“特殊准强奸”的罪行，该罪适用于受害者神志不清、以及涉及两名或两名以上施暴者的情况，对此罪的最高惩罚是无期徒刑。

All three defendants were taken into custody immediately after the sentencing. They also will need to complete 40 hours of a program for sexual violence.

三名被告在宣判后被当庭羁押。他们还需要完成40小时性暴力治疗课程。

Mr. Moon isn’t the first K-pop star to be jailed for sex crimes in recent years.

文泰一不是近年来因性犯罪入狱的唯一的韩国流行音乐明星。

In 2019, Choi Jong-hoon and Jung Joon-young were given jail terms of five and six years for raping women who were too drunk to give consent, and for making and sharing videos of the assaults online. Seungri, a former member of BigBang, was sentenced to three years in prison in 2021 for sex crimes that included arranging for prostitution at a night club called Burning Sun.

2019年，崔钟训和郑俊英分别被判处五年和六年有期徒刑，罪名是强奸因醉酒而没有能力表示同意的女性，以及制作并在网上分享了性侵视频。2021年，BigBang乐队前成员、艺名“胜利”的歌手因性犯罪被判处三年有期徒刑，他的罪行包括安排妓女在一家名为Burning Sun的夜总会提供性服务。

Last August, Mr. Moon’s management company released a statement saying he was “accused in a criminal case involving sex crimes” and that he had left the band.

文泰一的经纪公司去年8月已发声明说，他“被指控涉嫌性犯罪”，已退出乐队。

“We apologize for the controversy that’s been caused by our artist,” the label said. In October, the label announced it had terminated Mr. Moon’s contract.

“我们对我们的艺人引发的争议深表歉意，”该公司写道。去年10月，该公司宣布终止了与文泰一的合同。

Mr. Moon made his debut in 2016 in a sub-unit of NCT, a popular boy band from SM Entertainment, one of the nation’s largest K-pop labels. His discography includes dozens of group albums and soundtracks for Korean dramas, including Netflix’s “Song of the Bandits” in 2023. His latest work was a solo track for the period piece “Missing Crown Prince,” which aired last year.

 文泰一是2016年出道的，当时是以NCT小分队成员的身份，NCT是韩国最大的韩流音乐公司之一SM娱乐旗下的热门男孩乐队。他的音乐作品包括几十张团体专辑和韩剧原声带，其中包括Netflix2023年推出的《土匪之歌》。他的最新作品是去年播出的时代剧《失踪的世子》的一个独唱曲目。

He was also a social media star. In 2021, Mr. Moon broke the Guinness World Record for being the fastest to reach a million followers on Instagram. His account, which had 4.3 million followers, is currently private and videos from his YouTube channel have been taken down.

他也是一名社交媒体明星。文泰一曾在2021年打破了吉尼斯世界纪录，成为Instagram上最快获得百万粉丝的人。他的Instagram账号曾拥有430万粉丝，目前处于私密状态。他发在YouTube频道的视频也已被删除。

President Donald Trump’s allies often describe him as a 40-year devotee of tariffs who, stymied by his first-term advisers, is finally able to put his long-held economic theory into practice.

根据特朗普总统的支持者惯常的说法，40年来他始终信奉关税政策——虽然在首个任期内受到顾问们的掣肘，他现在终于能够将其长期秉持的经济理论付诸实践了。

But while Trump spoke about tariffs off and on before becoming a presidential candidate, he usually described his broader grievance about trade in terms of other countries or companies “ripping off” the United States. It is since Trump became a candidate in 2015 that he has talked about tariffs in earnest, describing them as a tool that he could easily deploy to rebalance the country’s economic footing.

然而，特朗普在成为总统候选人之前虽然零星地谈论过关税，但他通常将他对贸易的更广泛不满描述为其他国家或公司“占美国便宜”。自2015年成为候选人后，他才开始严肃地谈论关税问题，将其描述为一种可以轻松运用以重新平衡国家经济基础的工具。

“We are going to have 10% to 20% tariffs on foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years, we are going to charge them 10% to 20% to come in and take advantage of our country because that is what they have been doing,” Trump said in August 2024, one of many comments he made in that race emphasizing he would impose sweeping tariffs if he won, far beyond those in his first term.

“我们将对多年来占我们便宜的国家征收10%至20%的关税，我们将向进入并利用我们国家的人收取10%至20%的费用，因为他们一直就是这样做的，”特朗普在2024年8月表示，这是他在那次竞选期间多次强调若当选将实施远超首个任期的全面关税的言论之一。

Trump’s latest retreat this week from his own self-imposed tariff deadlines underscores the challenge he has faced in treating tariffs as a quick-fix — a tool that he asserts will bring in lots of money for the country while swiftly resetting trade relationships.

特朗普本周再次推迟自己设定的关税最后期限，这凸显了他将关税视为“立竿见影的法子”所面临的挑战——他坚称关税将为国家带来大量收入，同时又能迅速重构贸易关系。

A review of Trump’s comments about tariffs over the decades shows he has often been fairly vague on the topic, and only more recently came to describe them as the centerpiece of his approach to trade.

回顾特朗普几十年来关于关税的言论，可以发现他在这个问题上常常语焉不详，直到最近才将其定位为贸易策略的中心支柱。

Far more frequent and durable has been Trump’s repeated refrain that other countries are turning the United States into “suckers.” His references to tariffs often came as part of his description of a feeling of national injury that became common as the country’s manufacturing base began eroding. That attentiveness to trade as an issue, even absent a cohesive policy plan, helped Trump win in 2016.

特朗普更频繁也更持久强调的一句话是：其他国家把美国变成“冤大头”。他提到关税时，往往是作为他描述这种受伤害的状态的一部分——这种情绪在美国制造业基础开始侵蚀时变得十分普遍。即便没有一套完整连贯的贸易政策，这种对贸易议题的高度关注，为他在2016年大选中获胜提供了一臂之力。

This year, administration officials say they have brought in roughly $100 billion in tariffs so far. But after pledging that the president would get “90 deals in 90 days,” the White House has secured only a handful of trade agreement frameworks with other countries.

政府官员称，今年迄今为止的关税收入约为1000亿美元。但在放话总统将在“90天达成90项协议”后，白宫仅与少数国家敲定了贸易协定框架。

Instead of treating tariffs as one tool that is part of a broader trade strategy, Trump often describes them as an end unto themselves. While business experts and corporate leaders say the tariffs will raise costs on their products and for consumers who rely on imports, the president has largely dismissed those concerns. And he has relied on his own belief that markets and long-term concerns will eventually level out, even as economic experts have wondered what the end game is.

特朗普常将关税视为目的本身，而非更广泛贸易战略的工具之一。尽管商业专家和企业领导人表示，关税将提高产品成本以及依赖进口的消费者成本，但总统基本无视这些担忧。他坚信市场和长期担忧终将趋于平衡，尽管经济专家一直想知道其终极目标是什么。

“What does winning look like? What is the definition of victory?” said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “He seems to view the definition of victory as eliminating other countries ‘unfair trade practices,’ which in his mind translates 1-for-1 into reducing our bilateral deficits with every single trading partner.”

“何为胜利？胜利的定义是什么？”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员莫里斯·奥布斯特费尔德说。“他似乎认为胜利的定义是消除他国的‘不公平贸易行为’，在他看来，这可以直接转化为减少我们与每个贸易伙伴的双边逆差。”

Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served in the Obama and Biden administrations, said, “He hasn’t really been willing to make that many real deals.”

曾在奥巴马政府和拜登政府任职的外交关系委员会高级研究员布拉德·塞策表示：“他其实无意达成那么多真正的协议。”

The deals Trump has been interested in so far, Setser said, appear to be that “you accept my tariffs at the level I set them, and you give me additional concessions” because “otherwise I will raise them further.”

塞策说，特朗普迄今感兴趣的交易似乎是“你接受我设定的税率，并给我额外让步”，否则“我将进一步提高关税”。

That has left countries with concerns that no matter what they agree to, Trump will again raise the cost for them.

这令各国担忧，无论他们同意什么，特朗普都将再度加码。

What has been dizzying for other foreign nations is clear to Trump, however. Tariffs are a weapon he has at his disposal, and he sees them as a way to rebalance global influence.

然而令他国感到不明所以的事情，特朗普却很清楚。关税是他可以支配的武器，亦是他眼中重塑全球影响力的途径。

While he was out of office, Trump described the levies in private conversations with aides and associates as more of an immense form of power, they said, than a broader economic theory.

他的助手和亲信表示，特朗普在卸任期间与助手和同事的私下谈话中将关税描述为巨大权力的体现，而非一种更广泛的经济理论。

Trump’s advisers maintain that his intention around tariffs has been clear over time, even when he has spoken imprecisely.

特朗普顾问坚称，其关税意图始终明晰，即使他的表述欠精准。

Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, said Trump had always been “unequivocally clear about the need to put Americans and America first with every tool at our disposal. Trillions in historic investment commitments, billions in government revenue, and overwhelming interest from other countries to negotiate new trade deals with the United States prove that President Trump is successfully using tariffs to accomplish just that.”

白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，特朗普向来“毫不含糊地明确表示，必须动用一切手段将美国人与美国的利益置于首位。数万亿美元的历史性投资承诺、数千亿美元的政府收入，以及他国表现出的与美国谈判新贸易协定的极大热情，都证明特朗普总统正在成功地利用关税来实现这一目标。”

In Trump’s first term, he was intrigued by tariffs but implemented them far more surgically than he has in his second term.

特朗普在第一个任期虽然对关税也很感兴趣，但实施起来要比第二任期更有目的性。

This year, Trump has used whatever powers he can to try to force countries to urge him to make deals with them. He has described the tariffs as some kind of entry fee for the right of engagement with the United States and all but ignored questions about whether he is going well beyond the scope of what the laws creating those tariff powers intended.

今年，特朗普竭尽所能地迫使各国主动来找他达成协议。他将关税描述为与美国往来的入场费，并且几乎无视其行为是否远超关税授权法律的立法本意。

“I’m like somebody that has a very valuable store and everybody wants to shop in that store,” he recently told The Atlantic. “And I have to protect that store. And I set the prices.”

“我就像一家非常重要的商店的老板，大家都想来购物，”他最近在接受《大西洋》采访时说。“而我必须保护这家店，价格由我来定。”

To that end, Trump abruptly announced Tuesday a new round of tariffs on copper: 50%. He did not say how he arrived at that rate.

为此，特朗普周二突然宣布对铜征收新一轮50%的关税。他没有说明这个税率是如何得出的。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Malaysia on Thursday for a gathering of top diplomats from Asian nations, as many of them were grappling with new tariff threats from President Trump.

国务卿鲁比奥于周四抵达马来西亚，参加亚洲国家高级外交官的聚会，其中许多国家正在努力应对特朗普总统的新关税威胁。

Mr. Rubio planned to attend a meeting with counterparts from countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations soon after landing in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia. He also planned to meet with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, on Thursday, a State Department official said. The Trump administration has been trying to negotiate a settlement to halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but Russia has been resistant.

鲁比奥计划在抵达马来西亚首都吉隆坡后不久出席与东南亚国家联盟国家外长举行的会议。国务院的一名官员表示，鲁比奥还计划于周四会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。特朗普政府一直试图通过谈判达成一项解决方案，让俄罗斯停止入侵乌克兰，但俄罗斯一直在抵制。

Mr. Rubio is scheduled to have a variety of other diplomatic talks on Thursday and Friday before flying back to Washington. Top diplomats from China, Japan and South Korea are also holding meetings in the city this week.

鲁比奥计划在周四和周五举行各种外交会谈，然后回到华盛顿。来自中国、日本和韩国的高级外交官本周也将在吉隆坡举行会议。

The State Department is framing Mr. Rubio’s whirlwind trip as an effort to reinforce alliances and partnerships that the United States has across Asia and to counter China by building up those ties.

国务院称鲁比奥的旋风之行旨在加强美国在亚洲各地的联盟和伙伴关系，并通过建立这些关系来对抗中国。

“In his first trip to Asia as secretary of state, Secretary Rubio is focused on reaffirming the United States commitment to advancing a free, open and secure Indo-Pacific region,” said Tammy Bruce, the State Department spokeswoman, at a news conference in Washington on Tuesday, using a stock phrase that U.S. officials employ to try to underscore China’s aggressive maritime and territorial moves in the region.

“在他作为国务卿的首次亚洲之行中，鲁比奥国务卿的重点是重申美国对推进一个自由、开放和安全的印太地区的承诺，”国务院发言人塔米·布鲁斯周二在华盛顿举行的新闻发布会上说。这是美国官员用来强调中国在该地区咄咄逼人的海上和领土行动的常用说法。

However, Mr. Trump’s sudden announcement on Monday that he would impose higher tariffs on 14 nations if they do not reach trade deals with the United States by Aug. 1 is sure to overshadow whatever discussions Mr. Rubio aims to have with the American partners. At least eight of the 14 countries are expected to have diplomats at meetings in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia, the host nation, is one of the 14.

然而，特朗普周一突然宣布，如果14个国家在8月1日前未能与美国达成贸易协议，他将对这些国家征收更高的关税，这肯定会给鲁比奥打算与美国伙伴进行的任何讨论蒙上阴影。预计14个国家中，至少有八个国家将派外交官出席在吉隆坡举行的会议。东道主马来西亚就是14个国家之一。

Malaysian officials were surprised by Mr. Trump’s proposal of a 25 percent tariff on the country’s exports to the United States, which would be paid by American companies importing the goods.

马来西亚官员对特朗普提议对该国出口到美国的商品征收25%的关税感到惊讶，关税将由进口这些商品的美国公司支付。

The number was almost the same as the 24 percent figure that Mr. Trump proposed in April before suspending the action for 90 days. Malaysia has been trying hard to negotiate a trade deal with the United States since then, and officials from the two governments have held 25 rounds of talks.

这个数字与特朗普在4月份提出的24%几乎相同，之后他将该行动暂停了90天。自那以后，马来西亚一直在努力与美国谈判一项贸易协定，两国政府官员已经举行了25轮会谈。

On Wednesday, the day before Mr. Rubio’s arrival, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia called on Southeast Asian officials to more tightly coordinate their foreign and economic policies in the face of Mr. Trump’s threats.

周三，也就是鲁比奥抵达马来西亚的前一天，马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣呼吁东南亚官员在面对特朗普的威胁时，更紧密地协调外交和经济政策。

马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣周三表示，贸易限制已成为 “地缘政治竞争的利器”。

“Tariffs, export restrictions and investment barriers have now become the sharpened instruments of geopolitical rivalry,” he said in the opening speech of a gathering of Southeast Asian foreign ministers. “This is no passing storm. It is the new weather of our time.”

“关税、出口限制和投资壁垒现在已成为地缘政治竞争的利器，”他在东南亚外长会议的开幕致辞中表示。“这不是转瞬即逝的风暴。这是我们这个时代的新天气。”

China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, is expected to attend the conclave this week and will no doubt promote his nation as a reliable trade partner, in contrast with the United States.

中国最高外交政策官员王毅预计将出席本周的闭门会议，毫无疑问，他将把中国宣传为一个可靠的贸易伙伴，与美国形成鲜明对比。

Mr. Trump has alternately lavished praise on China’s authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, and criticized the country for unfair trade practices. China has been a main target in the trade war that Mr. Trump started soon after taking office in January.

特朗普时而对中国的专制领导人习近平赞誉有加，时而批评中国的贸易行为不公平。中国一直是特朗普今年1月上任后不久发动的贸易战的主要目标。

However, rather than working closely with U.S. partners to present a united front against China on trade issues, Mr. Trump has gone on a broad assault against many of those nations.

然而，特朗普并没有与美国的合作伙伴密切合作，在贸易问题上结成反对中国的统一战线，而是对其中的许多国家发起了广泛的攻击。

“The U.S. intends to use these negotiations to pressure countries to curtail trade and investment ties with China,” said Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and a former U.S. trade negotiator. “That will inevitably bleed over into U.S.-China discussions and obviously complicate third-country relationships with China.”

“美国打算利用这些谈判向各国施压，要求它们减少与中国的贸易和投资关系，”新加坡尤索夫伊沙研究所访问高级研究员、前美国贸易谈判代表斯蒂芬·奥尔森说。“这将不可避免地影响到美中讨论，显然会使第三国与中国的关系复杂化。”

Many of the countries trade more with China than with the United States, so Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign could backfire. And there is an “open question,” Mr. Olson said: “As Trump continues to move the goal posts and blow through deadlines, will countries start to question the point of attempting to negotiate?”

许多国家与中国的贸易往来超过与美国的贸易往来，因此特朗普的施压行动可能会适得其反。还有一个“悬而未决的问题”，奥尔森说，“随着特朗普继续改变目标，拖延最后期限，各国是否会开始质疑试图谈判的意义？”

上海洋山港。中国最高外交政策官员王毅预计将于本周访问吉隆坡，他可能会宣传中国是比美国更可靠的贸易伙伴。

Mr. Trump appears to be seeking trade agreements with countries to present as wins to the American public, even if the terms do not amount to obvious victories for U.S. commercial interests.

特朗普似乎在寻求与各国达成贸易协定，以便向美国公众展示自己的胜利，即使这些条款对美国的商业利益来说并不构成明显的胜利。

Across Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has struggled to show Asian nations that it has a strategic vision for the region and is committed to counterbalancing China across economic, diplomatic and military fronts. Mr. Trump’s tariff threats aimed at treaty allies, including Japan and South Korea, raise further doubts about that commitment.

无论民主党还是共和党执政，美国一直在努力向亚洲国家展示对该地区的战略愿景，并致力于在经济、外交和军事方面制衡中国。特朗普针对日本和韩国等条约盟友的关税威胁进一步引发了人们对这一承诺的怀疑。

In March, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited the Philippines and Japan, both allies of the United States, and reiterated Washington’s support for them.

今年3月，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯访问了美国的两个盟国菲律宾和日本，并重申了华盛顿对它们的支持。

However, the Trump administration could try to unwind some of the military initiatives in the region that the Biden administration pushed. The Pentagon is reviewing the deal that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. reached with the leaders of Australia and Britain to provide nuclear-powered submarines and related technology to Australia, an agreement known as AUKUS. Some Pentagon officials have expressed skepticism about sending advanced U.S. weapon systems to allies.

然而，特朗普政府可能会试图放松拜登政府在该地区推动的一些军事举措。五角大楼正在审查拜登总统与澳大利亚和英国领导人达成的向澳大利亚提供核动力潜艇及相关技术的协议，该协议被称为AUKUS。五角大楼的一些官员对向盟国提供先进的美国武器系统存有疑虑。

Mr. Rubio is arriving in Asia more than five months after becoming secretary of state, and after traveling to Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe and the Middle East.

鲁比奥来到亚洲是在他就任国务卿五个多月后，此前他访问了拉丁美洲、加勒比地区、欧洲和中东。

He could have committed to a longer trip in Asia and stopped at more countries, but he stayed in Washington at the start of this week to attend meetings at the White House with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

他本可以安排更长时间的亚洲行程，在更多国家停留，但本周初他留在了华盛顿，在白宫与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会面。

Some American foreign-policy advisers say the U.S. government has spent too much time and resources on conflicts in the Middle East in recent decades and not enough on Asia, which has the world’s most populous nations and largest economies outside the United States.

一些美国外交政策顾问称，近几十年来，美国政府在中东冲突上花费了太多时间和资源，而在亚洲投入的时间和资源却不够。亚洲拥有世界上人口最多的国家和除美国之外最大的经济体。

Derek J. Grossman, an analyst of Asia security issues and a former U.S. intelligence official, wrote online on July 3 that a brief trip by Mr. Rubio to Asia “raises concerns, again, that Indo-Pacific isn’t really the priority theater.”

亚洲安全问题分析师、前美国情报官员德里克·格罗斯曼7月3日在网上写道，鲁比奥对亚洲的短暂访问“再次引发了人们的担忧，即印太地区并不是首要战区”。

When Amazon’s chief executive, Andy Jassy, wrote last month that he expected the company’s use of artificial intelligence to “reduce our total work force” over the next few years, it confirmed the fear among many workers that A.I. would replace them. The fear was reinforced two weeks later when Microsoft said it was laying off about 9,000 people, roughly 4 percent of its work force.

亚马逊首席执行官安迪·雅西上个月写道，他预计公司未来几年使用人工智能将“减少我们的总劳动力”，这印证了许多员工对人工智能将取代他们的担忧。两周后，微软宣布裁员约9000人，约占其员工总数的4%，这种担忧进一步加剧。

That artificial intelligence is poised to displace white-collar workers is indisputable. But what kind of workers, exactly? Mr. Jassy’s announcement landed in the middle of a debate over just this question.

人工智能即将取代白领工作者是不争的事实。但究竟是哪类呢？雅西的此番表态出现在人们围绕这个问题展开辩论之际。

Some experts argue that A.I. is most likely to affect novice workers, whose tasks are generally simplest and therefore easiest to automate. Dario Amodei, the chief executive of the A.I. company Anthropic, recently told Axios that the technology could cannibalize half of all entry-level white-collar roles within five years. An uptick in the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has aggravated this concern, even if it doesn’t prove that A.I. is the cause of their job-market struggles.

一些专家认为，人工智能最有可能影响到新手员工，因为他们的工作通常是最简单的，因此最容易实现自动化。人工智能公司Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊最近告诉《Axios》，人工智能技术可能会在五年内取代半数初级白领职位。最近毕业的大学生（美国官方统计机构对于这个表述的定义是：年龄在22至27岁之间、拥有学士学位或更高学历的人——译注）失业率的上升令这种担忧加剧，即便这并不能证明人工智能是导致他们在就业市场上挣扎的原因。

But other captains of the A.I. industry have taken the opposite view, arguing that younger workers are likely to benefit from A.I. and that experienced workers will ultimately be more vulnerable. In an interview at a New York Times event in late June, Brad Lightcap, the chief operating officer of OpenAI, suggested that the technology could pose problems for “a class of worker that I think is more tenured, is more oriented toward a routine in a certain way of doing things.”

但人工智能行业的其他领导者却持相反的观点，他们认为年轻的员工可能会从人工智能中受益，而资深员工最终将更容易受到伤害。OpenAI首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普6月底在《纽约时报》的一次活动上接受采访时表示，这项技术可能会给“我认为资历较深、习惯于按某种固定方式和流程工作的员工”带来麻烦。

The ultimate answer to this question will have vast implications. If entry-level jobs are most at risk, it could require a rethinking of how we educate college students, or even the value of college itself. And if older workers are most at risk, it could lead to economic and even political instability as large-scale layoffs become a persistent feature of the labor market.

这个问题的最终答案将产生深远的影响。如果初级岗位风险更大，可能需要重新思考大学的教育方式，甚至是大学本身的价值。如果年龄较大的员工面临的风险最大，随着大规模裁员成为劳动力市场的一个持续特征，这可能会导致经济甚至政治动荡。

David Furlonger, a vice president at the research firm Gartner who helps oversee its survey of chief executives, has considered the implications if A.I. displaces more experienced workers.

戴维·弗隆是研究公司高德纳的副总裁，负责该公司针对企业首席执行官的调查项目，他曾经思考过人工智能取代资深员工的后果。

“What are those people going to do? How will they be funded? What is the impact on tax revenue?” he said. “I imagine governments are thinking about that.”

“那些人今后怎么办？他们的生活来源在哪里？这会对税收产生什么影响？”他说。“我想各国政府正在考虑这个问题。”

Is A.I. Making Better Managers?

人工智能是否能造就更优秀的管理者？

Economists and other experts who study A.I. often draw different conclusions about whom it’s more likely to displace.

对于哪一方更有可能被人工智能取代，经济学家和其他研究人工智能的专家往往会得出不同的结论。

Zooming in on the fields that have deployed A.I. most widely thus far tends to paint a dire picture for entry-level workers. Data from ADP, the payroll processing firm, shows that in computer-related fields, employment for workers with less than two years of tenure peaked in 2023 and is down about 20 to 25 percent since then. There is a similar pattern among customer service representatives, who are increasingly reliant on A.I. as well.

深入研究迄今为止最广泛应用人工智能的领域，往往会给初级员工描绘出一幅可怕的画面。薪资处理公司ADP的数据显示，在计算机相关领域，工龄不足两年者的就业率在2023年达到顶峰，此后下降了约20%至25%。越来越依赖人工智能的客户服务代表当中也存在类似的模式。

Over the same period, employment in these industries has increased for workers with two or more years of job tenure, according to Ruyu Chen, a Stanford researcher who analyzed the data.

对这些数据进行了分析的斯坦福大学研究员陈汝宇（音）指出，在同一时期，在这些行业工作两年或两年以上者的就业率有所增加。

Other studies point in a similar direction, if in a roundabout way. In early 2023, Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT, which software developers there relied on to help them code. A team of researchers at the University of California, Irvine, and Chapman University compared the change in the productivity of Italian coders with the productivity of coders in France and Portugal, which did not ban the software, to isolate the impact of ChatGPT.

其他的研究也指出了类似的趋势，虽然是以迂回的方式。2023年初，意大利暂时禁止了ChatGPT，因为当地的软件开发人员依靠ChatGPT帮忙写代码。加州大学欧文分校和查普曼大学的一组研究人员将意大利程序员的生产力变化与没有禁止该软件的法国和葡萄牙的程序员的生产力变化进行了比较，以便研究ChatGPT的影响。

While the study did not look at job loss, it did find that the A.I. tool had transformed the jobs of midlevel workers in more favorable ways than the jobs of entry-level workers. According to the researchers, the junior coders used A.I. to complete their tasks somewhat faster; the experienced coders often used it to benefit their teams more broadly. For example, the A.I. helped midlevel coders review the work of other coders and suggest improvements, and to contribute to projects in languages they didn’t know.

虽然这项研究没有关注失业问题，但它确实发现，该人工智能工具对中级员工的工作改变比对初级员工更加有利。根据研究人员的说法，初级程序员使用人工智能只是为了更快完成工作；而经验丰富的程序员则往往用它来更广泛地造福团队。例如，人工智能帮助中级程序员审查其他程序员的工作并提出改进建议，还能让他们参与自己不熟悉的计算机语言项目。

“When people are really good at things, what they end up doing is helping other people as opposed to working on their own projects,” said Sarah Bana, one of the paper’s authors, adding that the A.I. essentially reinforced this tendency. Dr. Bana said the paper’s result suggested that A.I. would prompt companies to hire fewer junior coders (because fewer would be needed to complete entry-level tasks) but more midlevel coders (because A.I. amplified their value to their whole team).

该论文的作者之一萨拉·巴纳说：“当人们真的很擅长某件事时，他们最终做的是帮助别人，而不是做自己的项目。”她还说，人工智能本质上强化了这种倾向。巴纳说，这篇论文的结果表明，人工智能将促使公司雇佣更少的初级程序员（因为完成入门级任务所需的人数减少了），但会雇佣更多的中级程序员（因为人工智能放大了他们对整个团队的价值）。

On the other hand, Danielle Li, an economist at M.I.T. who studies the use of A.I. in the workplace, said there were scenarios in which A.I. could undermine higher-skilled workers more than entry-level workers. The reason is that it can, in effect, untether valuable skills from the humans who have traditionally possessed them. For instance, you may no longer have to be an engineer to code, or a lawyer to write a legal brief.

另一方面，麻省理工学院研究人工智能在工作场所应用的经济学家丹妮尔·李（音）表示，在某些情况下，人工智能对高技能员工的影响可能大于初级员工。原因是，它实际上可以从传统上拥有这些宝贵技能的人类手中夺走这些技能。例如，你可能不再需要一个工程师来写代码，或者不再需要一个律师来写法律摘要。

“That state of the world is not good for experienced workers,” she said. “You’re being paid for the rarity of your skill, and what happens is that A.I. allows the skill to live outside of people.”

“这种态势对资深从业者不利，”她说。“你因为技能的稀缺性而获得报酬，而人工智能使得技能脱离人体存在。”

Dr. Li said A.I. would not necessarily be good for less experienced workers, either. But she speculated that the uptick in unemployment for new college graduates resulted from employers’ expectations that they will need fewer workers overall in the age of A.I., not just fewer novice workers. An overall hiring slowdown can have a bigger impact on workers right out of college, since they don’t have a job to begin with.

李博士表示，人工智能对经验较少的员工来说也不一定是好事。但她推测，新近毕业的大学生当中失业率上升的原因是，雇主们认为，在人工智能时代，他们需要的劳动力总量将减少，而不仅仅是新手减少。整体招聘放缓可能对大学刚毕业者的冲击更大，因为他们一开始就没有工作。

Robert Plotkin, a partner in a small law firm specializing in intellectual property, said A.I. had not affected his firm’s need for lower-skilled workers like paralegals, who format the documents that his firm submits to the patent office. But his firm now uses roughly half as many contract lawyers, including some with several years of experience, as it used a few years ago, before the availability of generative A.I., he added.

罗伯特·普洛特金是一家专门从事知识产权业务的小型律师事务所的合伙人，他说，人工智能并没有影响他的事务所对律师助理等低技能员工的需求，这些员工负责按照要求整理提交给专利局的文件。不过他也表示，在生成式人工智能出现后，他的律所现在使用的合同律师人数，包括一些拥有多年经验的合同律师人数，大约是几年前的一半。

These more senior lawyers draft patent applications for clients, which Mr. Plotkin then reviews and asks them to revise. But he can often draft applications more efficiently with the help of an A.I. assistant, except when the patent involves a field of science or technology that he is unfamiliar with.

这些资历较深的律师为客户起草专利申请，然后普罗特金进行审核并提出修改意见。但在人工智能助手的帮助下，他通常可以更有效地起草申请，除非专利涉及他不熟悉的科学或技术领域。

“I’ve become very efficient at using A.I. as a tool to help me draft applications in a way that’s reduced our need for contract lawyers,” Mr. Plotkin said.

“我已经可以非常高效地使用人工智能作为工具，帮助我起草申请，这减少了我们对合同律师的需求，”普洛特金说。

Some of the companies at the cutting edge of A.I. adoption appear to have made similar calculations, laying off experienced employees rather than simply hiring fewer entry-level workers. Google, Meta and Amazon have all done layoffs since 2022. Two months before its most recent layoff announcement, Microsoft laid off 6,000 employees, many of them software developers, while the July layoffs included many middle managers.

一些处于人工智能应用前沿的公司似乎也做了类似的考量，这些公司解雇了有经验的员工，而不是简单地减少招聘初级员工。自2022年以来，谷歌、Meta和亚马逊都进行了裁员。在最近一次宣布裁员的两个月前，微软解雇了6000名员工，其中许多是软件开发人员，而7月份的裁员包括许多中层管理人员。

The Value of Inexperience

新手的价值

Gil Luria, an equity analyst who covers Microsoft for the investment bank D.A. Davidson, said one reason for layoffs was that companies like Microsoft and Google were cutting costs to prop up their profit margins as they invested billions in chips and data centers to develop A.I. But another reason is that software engineers are susceptible to replacement by A.I. at all skill levels — including experienced engineers who make a large salary but are reluctant to embrace the technology.

吉尔·卢里亚是投资银行D.A.戴维森研究微软的股票分析师，他说，裁员的一个原因是，像微软和谷歌这样的公司在投资数十亿美元开发人工智能芯片和数据中心的同时，也在削减成本以支撑利润率。但另一个原因是，软件工程师无论资历深浅都容易被人工智能取代——包括那些拿着高薪却不愿接受这项技术的资深工程师。

Microsoft “can do math quickly — see who’s adding value, who’s overpaid, who’s not overpaid, who’s adapting well,” Mr. Luria said. “There are senior people who have figured out how to get leverage out of A.I. and senior people who are insistent that A.I. can’t write code.”

微软“可以快速计算——看看谁在增加价值，谁的薪酬过高，谁的薪酬并不过高，谁适应得很好”，卢里亚说。“有些资深人士已经找到了如何利用人工智能的方法，也有些资深人士坚持认为人工智能不会写代码。”

Harper Reed, the chief executive of 2389 Research, which is building autonomous A.I. agents to help companies perform a variety of tasks, said the combination of higher salaries and a reluctance to embrace A.I. was likely to put the jobs of experienced coders at risk.

哈珀·里德是2389研究公司的首席执行官，该公司正在开发自主人工智能体，以帮助公司执行各种任务。他表示，更高的工资和不愿接受人工智能的结合可能会让经验丰富的程序员面临失业风险。 

“How you decrease cost is not by firing the cheapest employees you have,” Mr. Reed said. “You take the cheapest employee and make them worth the expensive employee.”

“降低成本的方法不是解雇最廉价的员工，”里德说。“而是使用最便宜的员工，让他们创造昂贵员工的价值。”

An English-language version of the Chinese movie “Ne Zha 2,” which has surpassed “Inside Out 2” as the highest-grossing animated feature of all time, will be released in the United States next month.

中国电影《哪吒2》的英文版将于下月在美国上映，该片已超越《头脑特工队2》成为有史以来票房最高的动画电影。

“Ne Zha 2,” which is based loosely on Chinese mythology and a famous 16th-century novel, has made $2.2 billion at the global box office, including $20 million in the United States and Canada, according to A24, which is distributing the English version. That is more than any other animated film when not accounting for inflation; “Inside Out 2” made $1.7 billion last year.

根据负责发行英文版的A24公司的介绍，这部取材于中国神话和16世纪著名小说的电影全球票房已达22亿美元，其中包括在美国和加拿大的2000万美元。在不计入通胀的情况下，这是所有动画片中的票房之最；《头脑特工队2》去年创造了17亿美元的票房。

The English version will open on Aug. 22 and feature the voice of Michelle Yeoh, the first Asian star to win best actress at the Academy Awards for her role in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

英文版将于8月22日上映，由凭借《瞬息全宇宙》成为首位获得奥斯卡最佳女主角的亚裔明星杨紫琼配音。

Yeoh will voice Nezha’s mother. The movie will also feature Aleks Le, Crystal Lee and Vincent Rodriguez III.

杨紫琼将为哪吒的母亲配音。参与献声的还有亚历克斯·黎、李馨巧和文森特·罗德里格斯等艺人。

In the original “Ne Zha,” which earned $726 million worldwide when it was released in 2019, Nezha is born as the reincarnation of a demon with supernatural powers who is destined to live only three years. He fights back against his fate and saves his village.

在2019年上映、全球票房7.26亿美元的首部《哪吒》中，拥有超能力的哪吒是魔丸转世，注定只能活三年。他反抗命运并拯救了全村的老百姓。

In the sequel, written and directed by Yu Yang, Nezha challenges the political order and authority governing gods and demons, fighting the Dragon King of Four Seas and other creatures.

在杨宇编剧、执导的续集中，哪吒挑战统治神魔的政治秩序与权威，与四海龙王及其他妖魔鬼怪一决高下。

The sequel was released in China in January and quickly became a smash hit, earning more than $1 billion in ticket sales in less than two weeks. “Ne Zha 2” was the first non-Hollywood film to reach that milestone.

这部续集于今年1月在中国上映后，迅速成为现象级爆款片，在不到两周的时间里票房突破10亿美元。《哪吒2》是首部达到这一里程碑的非好莱坞电影。

Yeoh, who also plays Madame Morrible in the “Wicked” movies, said in a statement that she was honored to be part of “Ne Zha 2,” calling it a “landmark in Chinese animation and a powerful reminder of how universal our stories can be.”

在《魔法坏女巫》系列中饰演莫里布尔夫人的杨紫琼在声明中表示很荣幸参与《哪吒2》的配音工作，称其为“中国动画的里程碑，有力地证明了我们的故事也能跨越文化隔阂引发全球共鸣”。

“I can’t wait for everyone to experience the wonder, heart, spectacular artistry and magic of this film on the big screen,” she said.

她说：“我迫不及待地想让大家在大银幕上体验这部电影的奇妙、情感内核、精湛艺术和魔力。”

The success of “Ne Zha 2” has been good news for the Chinese film industry, which was struggling with poor ticket sales amid a weakening economy. The recent films to break through in China have not been the typical Hollywood blockbuster, but domestic features with patriotic themes or those that showcase traditional Chinese culture or folklore.

《哪吒2》的成功对中国电影业来说是个好消息，在经济下行的背景下，中国的电影票房一蹶不振。近期在中国取得皮放成功的电影并非典型的好莱坞大片，而是爱国题材或者展现中国传统文化、民间传说的国产电影。

His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway.

他已把代价高昂的减税政策签署为法律。他对全球各国征收的关税正逐渐成型。他的两大运动——放松政府监管、驱逐移民——都正在如火如荼地进行中。

With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.

随着特朗普总统议程的主要内容逐渐清晰，他已给美国经济留下了不可磨灭的印记。不久可能出现的成就和动荡都将毫无疑问地属于他。

Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.

第二次担任总统还不到六个月，特朗普已顺利推进了他最初在2024年大选期间提出的宏大且具有潜在颠覆力的经济实验。他最近几周的行动已把美国财政的未来以及延续了几个世纪的贸易关系押注在一个信念上：许多经济学家的最严厉警告是错误的。

Last week, the president enacted a sprawling set of tax cuts that he believes to be the ingredients for rapid economic growth, even as fiscal experts warned that the law may injure the poor while putting the U.S. government on a risky new fiscal path.

上周，特朗普将庞大的一揽子减税措施签署为法律，他相信这是推动经济快速增长的要素，尽管财政专家们警告，该法律有可能损害穷人的利益，同时将美国政府推上一条危险的新财政路线。

Then, on Monday, Mr. Trump began to issue his latest round of tariff threats, insisting that “we’re done” negotiating as economists warned about a potential surge in consumer prices that could arise from taxing imports.

然后，特朗​​普开始在周一发出最新一轮关税威胁，坚称“我们不再有”谈判的时间，而经济学家们则警告说，对进口商品征收关税可能会导致消费者价格飙升。

The White House also proceeded with its aggressive and legally contested plans to eliminate scores of federal regulations and deport millions of migrants. The immigration crackdown, in particular, could come to the detriment of many sectors, like agriculture, that rely heavily on foreign labor, experts believe.

白宫也在继续推进其激进的、法律上存在争议的计划，以取消数十项联邦法规，驱逐数百万移民。专家们认为，打击移民的行动尤其有可能给农业等许多严重依赖外国劳动力的行业造成伤害。

So far, the U.S. economy has remained resilient in the face of these seismic changes, while Mr. Trump has ascribed the faintest hint of negative news to his predecessor, former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

即使面对这些巨变，美国经济到目前为止仍保持着韧性，同时，特朗普将任何负面消息的蛛丝马迹都归咎于前总统拜登。

“I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job,” Mr. Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in May.

“我认为好的部分是特朗普经济，坏的部分是拜登经济，因为他做得很糟糕，”特朗普5月在NBC的“会见新闻界”节目上说。

But the president has now achieved broad swaths of what he set out to do, making him responsible for the highs or lows on the horizon. The coming months will serve as a gauge of whether he is merely enjoying a calm before a damaging storm — or is correct in asserting that his agenda is not as perilous as many economists have feared.

但现在，特朗普已基本上实现了他设定的目标，未来经济的荣衰都将直接归责于他。接下来的几个月将检验他究竟是在暴风雨前享受片刻的宁静，还是如他所坚称的那样的——他的议程并不像许多经济学家担心的那般危险。

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

白宫没有回应置评请求。

迈阿密的一个购物中心。作为美国经济增长主要驱动力的消费支出已开始走弱。

For the moment, the U.S. economy appears strong, even as it shows some early signs of strain.

美国经济虽然目前似乎表现强劲，但也显示出一些承压的早期迹象。

Last month, the United States added 147,000 jobs, beating analysts’ expectations. Yet the sources of that growth also appeared to narrow, evidenced in a continued slump in manufacturing jobs and lackluster hiring across the retail and professional services sectors. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent, but the number of people out of work for more than six months rose.

上个月，美国新增了14.7万个就业岗位，超出分析师预期。但就业增长来源似乎在缩小，证据包括制造业的就业岗位持续下降，各种零售业和专业服务部门的招聘疲软。虽然失业率略微下降至4.1%，但失业超过六个月的人数有所增长。

While inflation remained relatively muted through May, consumer spending, which is the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, has started to sputter, as Americans pull back on purchases after months of stockpiling to get ahead of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

尽管5月份的通货膨胀率保持在温和水平，但美国经济增长的主要引擎——消费者支出已开始熄火，美国人已开始减少购买，因为他们为了应对特朗普的关税，曾在今年前几个月里囤积物资。

David Kelly, the chief global strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, still described the U.S. economy as a “relatively healthy tortoise,” resilient and expanding, slowly but surely. He projected that the nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of its total output, would grow about 1 percent by the end of 2025 compared with the year prior.

摩根大通资产管理公司的首席全球策略师戴维·凯利仍把美国经济描述为“相对健康的乌龟”，具备韧劲而且持续增长，虽然缓慢但稳健。他的预测是，美国到2025年底时国内生产总值将较上年增长约1%。

But, he added, the economy has reached a “bit of a diversion in the road,” as some of Mr. Trump’s new policies start to take effect.

但他补充说，随着特朗普的一些新政策开始生效，美国经济已遇到“一点偏离”。

At the heart of that agenda is an expensive new domestic policy law, which Mr. Trump signed into law on Friday. The package primarily preserves a set of low tax rates clinched during the president’s first term, while provisioning new, and in some cases generous, tax reductions for businesses, seniors and certain workers, including those who earn overtime.

该议程的核心是一揽子代价高昂的国内新政策法规，特朗普已在上周五将其签署生效。该法案主要保留了特朗普上次担任总统期间确定的一组低税率，同时为企业、老年人和某些工人（包括拿加班费的工人）提供了新的、在有些情况下相当慷慨的减税。

Many Americans, particularly the wealthy, could see lower tax bills in the coming years, congressional analysts previously found. But Republicans financed that package with deep cuts to federal safety net programs, which could leave poorer Americans worse off under a law that’s still expected to add more than $3 trillion to the debt.

据国会分析师们此前的计算，许多美国人，尤其是富人，可能会在未来几年看到更低的税账单。但共和党人为减税方案提供资金的办法是大幅削减联邦保障网，这可能会让较穷的美国人境况更糟，而且预计该法案仍会让政府债务增加逾3万亿美元。

Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said the cost of the legislation would send a key measure of the nation’s fiscal imbalance — the ratio of its debt to total output — to a level not seen since after World War II. That would weigh down private investment and push up the costs of borrowing money, not only for the government but also for average Americans.

美国联邦预算问责委员会主席玛雅·麦金尼斯说，该法案的后果是将衡量国家财政失衡的一个关键指标——政府债务占国内生产总值比重——推升到第二次世界大战以来的最高水平。这不仅会抑制私人投资，还会推高借贷成本，对政府和普通民众皆然。

“This will slow economic growth,” predicted Ms. MacGuineas, whose group supports deficit reduction.

“这将放慢经济增长，”麦金尼斯预测说，她所在机构支持削减联邦赤字。

特朗普上周签署了减税法案，他称减税将加快经济增长速度，尽管财政专家警告，减税法案可能会让美国走上危险的新财政路线。

Mr. Trump and his top aides have swatted away those predictions. Last month, they estimated that the tax measure — and the rest of the president’s agenda — would generate enough revenue and economic activity to reduce deficits by as much as about $11 trillion. Even conservative economists have said some of the administration’s predictions are overly rosy.

特朗普和他的高级助手们已对这些预测进行反驳。上个月，他们曾估计减税措施——以及总统的其他议程——将产生足够多的收入和经济活动，从而将联邦赤字最多减少约11万亿美元。就连保守派的经济学家们也表示，政府的某些预测过于乐观。

“The growth that’s just attributed to the tax cut is way too hot, even compared with what conservatives like me would say,” said Glenn Hubbard, who served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. “It’s just way, way, way out of line.”

“他们计算的减税政策带来的增长太夸张，就连我这样的保守派也会这样说，”曾在乔治·W·布什总统任内担任经济顾问委员会主席的格伦·哈伯德说。“简直是太、太、太不合理了。”

Some of that revenue is expected to come from Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which he broadened this week. Targeting an initial batch of 14 countries, the president on Monday threatened duties as high as 40 percent unless those nations strike favorable trade deals with the United States.

联邦政府的部分收入预计将来自特朗普的关税，他已在本周扩大了关税范围。特朗普已在周一对首批14个国家发出威胁，除非这些国家与美国达成有利于美国的贸易协议，否则将对它们的出口产品征收最高40%的关税。

By Tuesday, Mr. Trump promised to unveil new duties on imported drugs, computer chips and copper, as he promised that “the big money will start coming in on Aug. 1.” The president’s top advisers have said they expect to collect more than $300 billion from tariffs by the end of the year, and Mr. Trump is expected to inform a “minimum” of seven additional countries about the higher levies that they will face next month.

特朗普周二承诺将公布对进口药品、计算机芯片，以及铜征收的新关税，并宣称“大笔收入将在8月1日开始进来”。总统的高级顾问们已表示，他们预计到今年年底时，关税将给联邦政府带来逾3000亿美元的收入，特朗普预计还将通知“至少”七个其他国家，它们将在下个月面临更高的关税。

Mr. Trump’s trade brinkmanship dates back to April, when he announced and later suspended a vast set of eye-watering duties in the hopes of striking trade deals globally. Most economists warned during that 90-day pause that his tariffs, if carried out, would inflict severe economic harm, a set of alarms they renewed this week as the president doubled down on his approach.

特朗普的贸易边缘政策始于今年4月，他当时宣布了一系列高得难以想象的关税，但后来宣布暂停征收，希望能与世界各国达成贸易协议。在90天的暂停期里，大多数经济学家警告称，如果征收那么高的关税，将给经济带来严重损害。随着特朗普本周在关税做法上变本加厉，他们再次发出了同样的警告。

“It’s inevitable that whatever is in place at the end of the day is going to get passed along; it’s just a matter of when,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the conservative American Action Forum.

“无论关税最终有多高，征收的后果都将不可避免地逐级转嫁；这只是个时间问题，”保守派组织美国行动论坛的主席道格拉斯·霍尔茨-埃金说。

On Monday, the Budget Lab at Yale, a nonpartisan research center, estimated that the president’s duties — including those to come next month — would cause households to lose $2,300 on average in income this year.

据耶鲁大学的无党派研究中心预算实验室周一发布的估计，特朗普的关税——包括下月即将实施的关税——将导致美国家庭今年的平均收入减少2300美元。

But the White House has long rejected similar projections and produced estimates of its own. It found on Tuesday that the price of imported goods had fallen faster than overall goods prices since February. Mr. Trump’s top aides said it showed that the president’s tariffs were not leading to “an acceleration of inflation,” though economists later questioned elements of the report.

但白宫一直拒绝接受类似的预测，并已给出自己的估计。白宫周二发报告称，自今年2月份以来，进口商品价格下降的速度比整体商品价格下降的速度快。特朗普的高级助手们说，这表明总统的关税没有导致“通胀加速”，尽管经济学家们后来对报告的部分内容提出了质疑。

在日本横滨港等待装运的汽车。特朗普本周宣布的最新一轮关税威胁针对的国家包括日本。

“There’s no sustained pattern of a tariff-driven price pressure anywhere,” Stephen Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said on CNBC.

“没有看到任何关税给价格带来压力的持续模式，”白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在CNBC上说。

The vast uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, has frozen the Federal Reserve, which has left borrowing costs untouched for months as it waits to see the fuller effects of Mr. Trump’s policies. That has provided the president with a convenient “fall guy” in Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, whom Mr. Trump has branded “Mr. Too Late” for not lowering borrowing costs as he has demanded.

巨大的不确定性，尤其是关税方面的不确定性，导致美联储陷入观望状态。美联储几个月来一直让借贷成本保持不变，因为它在等待特朗普政策的更全面影响。这给特朗普提供了一个方便的“替罪羊”——美联储主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔。因为鲍威尔没有按照特朗普的要求降低借贷成本，特朗普给他起了“太迟先生”的外号。

“If you end up with things like tariffs pushing up inflation and pushing down growth in the short term, then it can almost suit you as president to blame bad economic data on an ‘incompetent’ Fed chair,” said Mark Dowding, the chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

“如果最终出现诸如关税推高通胀并在短期内抑制经济增长的情况，作为总统，他几乎总有把糟糕的经济数据归咎于‘无能’的美联储主席的方便借口，”加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理公司的固定收益首席投资官马克·道丁说。

Launching a new national political party in the United States may be more difficult than sending a man to Mars.

在美国成立一个新的全国性政党可能比把人送上火星还难。

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who last year was the nation’s biggest known political donor, now says that he is trying to do both. But while the effort to achieve interplanetary travel has made slow progress for over 20 years, the past several decades of American politics are littered with abandoned attempts to disrupt the two-party system.

世界首富、去年美国已知的最大政治捐赠者埃隆·马斯克如今表示，这两件事他都要努力实现。然而，实现星际旅行的努力在过去20多年取得了缓慢的进展，但在过去几十年的美国政治中，打破两党制的努力却屡遭挫败。

It remains to be seen how serious Mr. Musk is about the new political project, and whether it will evolve from musings on his social-media platform to a fact of real life. While he declared on Saturday that “Today, the America Party is formed,” so far he has yet to register it with the Federal Election Commission.

马斯克对这个新的政治计划有多认真、该计划是否会从他在自己的社交媒体平台上的思考演变成现实生活中的事实，这些都还有待观察。虽然他在周六宣布“今天，美国党成立了”，但到目前为止，他还没有在联邦选举委员会注册。

As with many of his tweet-length proclamations, Mr. Musk’s plans for the new party are opaque. His private conversations about it so far have been conceptual and not focused on the details of what it would take to bring it to fruition, according to two people briefed on those talks. Some advisers to Mr. Musk who have also been involved in these early talks, however, appear more focused on those details and are soliciting more feedback from experts, according to one of the people.

和他的许多推文宣言一样，马斯克对这个新政党的计划是不透明的。据两名知情人士透露，到目前为止，他关于该计划的私下谈话都是概念性的，而不是集中在实现该计划所需的细节上。不过，据其中一名知情人士透露，马斯克的一些顾问也参与了这些早期的商谈，他们似乎更关注这些细节，并且正在征求专家的更多反馈。

Mr. Musk’s advisers have indicated privately that they plan to use a super PAC to organize initial support for the new party before it is formally established, according to one of the people briefed.

据一名知情人士透露，马斯克的顾问私下表示，他们计划在新政党正式成立之前，利用超级政治行动委员会来组织起对该党的初步支持。

Mr. Musk has said the America Party would be a new entity and would have the goal of disrupting the two major parties’ hold on the federal government.

马斯克曾表示，美国党将是一个新的实体，其目标是打破两大党对联邦政府的控制。

Should he eventually tire of the idea, it would not be the first time he offered a grand pronouncement in an X post before either walking it back or letting it wither as he moved on to a new pursuit. Still, some notions that originated as seeming jokes by Mr. Musk — like his early purchase of shares in Twitter — have ended with world-altering investments.

如果他最终厌倦了这个想法，那也不会是他第一次在X帖子中发表豪言壮语，然后要么收回，要么任其枯萎，转而追求新的目标。尽管如此，马斯克一些最初看似开玩笑的想法——比如他早期购买Twitter的股票——最终以改变世界的投资告终。

Public opinion polling has long shown that Americans are hungry for an option beyond the two major political parties, though third-party candidates have seldom performed well in elections.

长期以来的民意调查显示，美国人渴望在两大政党之外另有一个选择，尽管第三党候选人很少在选举中表现出色。

Should Mr. Musk make a sustained investment in his America Party project — either in monetary terms or by expending his political capital — it would face steep hurdles. Here are a few.

如果马斯克对他的美国党项目进行持续的投资，无论是在金钱方面还是通过消耗他的政治资本，都将面临巨大的障碍。下面列举了其中的一些。

Rules in each state are hard to follow

各州规则不一，难以遵守

Mr. Musk boasted on Sunday that his plan to radically transform American democracy would not be difficult — suggesting he had spent little time studying state ballot-access and federal campaign-finance laws.

马斯克周日夸口说，他这个从根本上改变美国民主的计划并不困难——这表明他几乎没有花时间研究各州选票准入和联邦竞选财务法。

Congressional candidates for a theoretical new party face a labyrinthine system of signature requirements that vary from state to state. The most restrictive laws are in Georgia, where candidates outside the two major parties must gather 27,000 signatures from their district. This hurdle has kept third-party congressional candidates from being on a general election ballot since the law was enacted in 1943, according to Richard Winger, the publisher of Ballot Access News, which has tracked election laws since 1985.

一个理论上的新政党的国会候选人面临着一个错综复杂的签名要求系统，这个系统因州而异。最严格的是佐治亚州，在那里，两大政党以外的候选人必须从其选区收集27000个签名。《选票访问新闻》的出版商理查德·翁格自1985年以来一直在追踪选举法，他说，自该法于1943年颁布以来，这一障碍一直使第三党国会候选人无法出现在大选选票上。

Qualifying a slate of 435 House candidates, were Mr. Musk to take his idea national, would require about three times as many petition signatures as putting a presidential candidate on the ballot in every state and could cost more than $50 million just in signature gathering, Mr. Winger said.

翁格说，如果马斯克想把他的想法推广到全国，那么要获得435名众议院候选人的请愿签名数量，大约是在每个州将总统候选人列入选票的三倍，光收集签名就可能要花费5000多万美元。

“I was on a Zoom call yesterday with people talking about this,” Mr. Winger said in an interview Monday. “A lot of them predicted that he’s the kind of person who, when he finds out how hard this is, he’ll give up.”

“昨天我和一些人在Zoom上讨论了这个问题，”翁格在周一接受采访时说。“他们中的很多人都预测，他是那种一旦发现这有多难就会放弃的人。”

Parties require a sustained commitment

政党需要持续的投入

It is not yet clear whom Mr. Musk would designate to set up a new party on his behalf. Some people who are friends with Mr. Musk’s Republican advisers privately worry about those advisers’ career prospects should they attach themselves to an anti-Trump effort. President Trump has punished Republican consultants who have joined or even tenuously linked arms with his opponents. The White House in recent days has been closely watching Mr. Musk’s allied operatives, a person briefed on the White House’s posture said.

目前还不清楚马斯克会指定谁来代表他成立一个新的政党。一些与马斯克的共和党顾问交好的人私下担心，如果这些顾问参与反特朗普的行动，他们的职业前景会受到影响。特朗普总统惩罚了那些与他的对手联手、甚至是有微妙联系的共和党顾问。一名了解白宫立场的人士表示，白宫最近几天一直在密切关注与马斯克结盟的人员。

That could leave Mr. Musk dependent, at least somewhat, on the mercenary types who populate the world of minor parties and ballot-access campaigns, and who may be willing to suffer reputational damage with national Republicans if the paycheck is big enough.

这可能使马斯克至少在某种程度上要依赖那些活跃在小党派和选票准入宣传活动中的那种拿钱办事的人物。只要报酬足够丰厚，他们可能不惜在全国共和党圈子中承担名誉受损的代价。

In recent days, cash-hungry ballot-access operatives have been conducting frenzied research and developing proposals with the hopes of getting them in front of Mr. Musk, according to one person doing just that. Some of them have begun spending inordinate amounts of time analyzing his social media posts.

据一位知情人士透露，最近几天，渴望获得现金的竞选工作者一直在加紧做调研并制定方案，希望能把这些方案送到马斯克面前。他们中的一些人已经开始花大量时间分析他的社交媒体帖子。

Aside from minor parties like the Libertarians and Greens, which have been successful at qualifying for ballots and occasionally at spoiling general elections, American third parties have generally had a short shelf life.

除了像自由党和绿党这样的小党派曾成功获得选票资格并偶尔破坏大选之外，美国第三党派的寿命一般都很短。

The Reform Party, created by H. Ross Perot for his presidential campaign in 1992, petered out after Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota on its line in 1998 and Mr. Trump declined to run for president on its line in 2000.

1992年，罗斯·佩罗为竞选总统而创建了改革党，在杰西·文图拉1998年代表该党当选明尼苏达州州长、特朗普在2000年拒绝代表该党竞选总统后，改革党逐渐衰落。

Mr. Perot won 19 million votes in 1992 on a populist platform that in some ways preceded Mr. Trump’s rise. Mr. Musk so far has espoused no real policy agenda beyond deficit reduction and anger at Mr. Trump.

1992年，佩罗凭借民粹主义纲领赢得了1900万张选票，从某种程度上说，这个纲领早于特朗普的崛起。到目前为止，马斯克除了削减赤字和对特朗普表示愤怒之外，没有提出任何真正的政策议程。

Unite America, a 2010s project to put forward centrist candidates, stopped nominating candidates after the 2018 election and shifted its focus to pushing for changes in election laws that would make it easier for independent and third-party candidates to succeed.

“团结美国”是2010年代推出中间派候选人的一个项目，在2018年大选后停止提名候选人，并将重点转向推动选举法的修改，使独立和第三党候选人更容易获得成功。

Musk may not know what he wants yet

马斯克可能还不知道自己想要什么

On his social media site, Mr. Musk has floated the idea of holding an American Party Congress this August in Austin, Texas. He suggested that he would be interested in keeping a “laser-focus on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts” in the 2026 midterms. And if those candidates were to win, he said, they would “caucus independently,” but “legislative discussions would be had with both parties.”

在他的社交媒体网站上，马斯克提出了今年8月在得克萨斯州奥斯汀举行美国党代表大会的想法。他表示，他有兴趣在2026年的中期选举中“专注于参议院的二到三个席位和众议院的八到10个选区”。他说，如果这些候选人获胜，他们将“独立组织党团会议”，但“将与两党进行立法讨论”。

像“无标签”这样的美国第三党派一般都很短命。

Mr. Musk’s team has not yet taken many operational steps to stand up the party, according to people in touch with them. On X, he has ingested feedback about the effort — including what the party’s logo should look like — from Grok, his company’s artificial intelligence chatbot.

据知情人士透露，马斯克的团队还没有采取很多操作步骤来支持该党。在X上，他从公司的人工智能聊天机器人Grok那里获得了有关这一努力的反馈——包括该党的标志应该是什么样子。

Limiting his ambitions to just a handful of races might not fit with Mr. Musk’s often grandiose self-image, but it could leave him with a better return on his investment.

将自己的野心限制在少数几项角逐上，可能与马斯克经常表现出的好大喜功的自我形象不符，但却可能会让他的投资获得更好的回报。

It is easier to work within the system

在体制内运作会更容易

For all his talk about starting a new party from scratch, Mr. Musk may find it easier to work within the existing system.

尽管马斯克一直在谈论从零开始建立一个新的政党，但他可能会发现，在现有体制内工作更容易。

There are still many Republicans in Congress who will privately express disgust with Mr. Trump, but very few who have been willing to cross him in public. In recent weeks, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska announced they would not seek re-election next year, in part because of their inability to be totally committed to Mr. Trump’s agenda.

国会中仍有许多共和党人会私下表达对特朗普的厌恶，但很少有人愿意在公开场合与他作对。最近几周，北卡罗来纳州参议员汤姆·提利斯和内布拉斯加州众议员唐·培根宣布，他们明年不会寻求连任，部分原因是他们无法完全支持特朗普的议程。

Mr. Musk has committed to support Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, a Republican who is staring down a potential primary challenge from a Trump supporter.

马斯克承诺支持肯塔基州共和党众议员托马斯·马西，后者正面临来自一名特朗普支持者的潜在初选挑战。

Several veterans of minor parties suggested that Mr. Musk might try to ally himself with an existing party that has a ballot line already, such as the Libertarians.

几位小党派的资深人士表示，马斯克可能会尝试与一个已经拥有选票线的现有政党结盟，比如自由意志党。

Nick Troiano, the executive director of Unite America, proposed that Mr. Musk could achieve a much better return on his political investment by persuading Republican incumbents to align with his new effort than by trying to elect newcomers to Congress.

联合美国的执行董事尼克·特罗亚诺认为，马斯克说服共和党现任议员与他的新努力保持一致，比选举新人进入国会更能实现政治投资的回报。

Whether the new Musk crew operated as a bloc within the Republican Party or formed an entirely new organization could make little difference if members of Congress aligned with Mr. Musk stuck together amid what would certainly be an unrelenting onslaught from Mr. Trump.

在特朗普的无情打击下，如果与马斯克结盟的国会议员能够保持团结，那么无论马斯克的新班底是作为共和党内的一个集团运作还是组成一个全新的组织，都没有太大区别。

“If the hardest thing to do is elect a third-party or independent candidate to Congress, the overlooked opportunity is who is there that would potentially defect to a new effort if they had the backing to get re-elected,” Mr. Troiano said. “Right now, the options are to continue a miserable existence in the party, or retire, or try something new.”

“如果说选出一名第三党或独立候选人进入国会是最困难的事情，那么还有一个被忽视的机会——国会中有哪些人一旦得到连任竞选支持，会有转投新组织的可能，”特罗亚诺说。“他们现在的选择是继续在党内苟且偷生，或者退休，还是尝试新的东西。”

The floods that ravaged Texas last week, leaving more than 105 people dead, occurred in a region known as Flash Flood Alley. And while the storm developed quickly, the National Weather Service offered what appears to have been a relatively good forecast in a rapidly developing situation, according to former Weather Service officials.

上周肆虐得克萨斯州的洪水造成超过105人死亡，灾情发生在一个被称为“暴洪巷”的地区。据前美国国家气象局官员说，虽然风暴发展迅速，但国家气象局在瞬息万变的情势下似乎提供了相对较好的预报。

But despite known risks in the area and warnings that were first issued around midnight Thursday, the floods became one of the deadliest weather events in recent American history.

但是，尽管该地区存在已知的风险，并且周四午夜左右首次发布了警告，这次洪水仍然成为美国近代历史上最致命的天气事件之一。

How did that happen?

为什么会这样？

It’s too early to say with certainty that the slow-moving thunderstorms were made worse by man-made climate change. But the weather pattern that unleashed more than 10 inches of rain in a matter of hours is precisely the kind of phenomenon that scientists say is becoming more common because of global warming.

现在断言缓慢移动的雷暴是由于人为气候变化而加剧还为时过早。但科学家们说，这种在几小时内降雨量超过25厘米的天气模式，正是由于全球变暖而变得越来越普遍的一种现象。

“The atmosphere is like a giant sponge,” said Arsum Pathak, director of adaptation and coastal resilience at the National Wildlife Federation. “As the air gets warmer, which is what’s been happening because of climate change, the sponge can hold a lot more water. And then when there’s a storm, the same sponge can squeeze out way more water than it used to.”

“大气就像一块巨大的海绵，”美国国家野生动物联合会适应和沿海恢复能力主任阿萨姆·帕塔克说。“随着气候变化所导致的空气升温，海绵可以容纳更多的水。然后当有风暴时，同样的海绵可以挤出比以前更多的水。”

Storms are becoming more intense

风暴越来越猛烈

President Trump, thus far, has avoided casting blame for the storm’s death toll, and called the floods “a hundred-year catastrophe” in remarks to reporters on Sunday.

到目前为止，特朗普总统还没有将风暴造成的死亡归咎于谁，并在周日对记者的讲话中称这场洪水是“百年一遇的灾难”。

But Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, said the research showed that as the planet warmed, sudden outbursts of extreme precipitation were becoming more powerful.

但加州大学的气候科学家丹尼尔·斯温说，研究表明，随着地球变暖，极端降水的突然爆发变得越来越剧烈。

In data that goes back to 1910, nine of the top 10 extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1995, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

根据美国环境保护署的数据，1910年以来的数据显示，十大极端单日降水事件中有九起发生在1995年以后。

“These precipitation extremes — heavy downpours of rain, essentially — have already increased in most of the U.S.,” Swain said. “And, indeed, in most of the world. That is a confirmed observation about what has already happened in response to the warming that has already occurred.”

“这些极端降水——基本上是倾盆大雨——在美国大部分地区增加了，”斯温说。“事实上，世界上大多数地方都是如此。这是对已经发生的气候变暖所导致的结果的确认。”

The forecast and the warnings

天气预报和警报

The storms that unleashed the floods developed quickly as a large area of tropical moisture moved in over central Texas.

随着一大片热带水汽进入得克萨斯州中部，引发洪水的风暴迅速发展。

While the National Weather Service delivered what experts said was a pretty accurate forecast of the emerging threat, many people in harm’s way during the Texas floods did not receive any warnings.

虽然国家气象局发布了专家们认为相当准确的新威胁预报，但在得克萨斯州洪水期间，许多处于危险中的人没有收到任何警告。

Part of the problem may have stemmed from staffing shortages at weather offices in Texas, according to former National Weather Service employees who spoke to Christopher Flavelle. On the ground, that meant “the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.”

据前国家气象局雇员对克里斯托弗·弗拉维尔说，部分问题可能源于得克萨斯州气象办公室的人员短缺。在现场，这意味着“失去了经验丰富的人，这些人通常会在一夜之间发布山洪警报后的几个小时内帮助与地方当局沟通”。

Another contributing factor may have been the lack of a flash flood warning system along the banks of the Guadalupe River. Officials considered installing such a system eight years ago, but ultimately decided against it, The Times reported.

另一个促成因素可能是瓜达卢佩河沿岸缺乏山洪预警系统。据时报报道，官员们在八年前就考虑过建立这样的系统，但最终决定不建。

But it’s also the case that even good forecasts have their limitations.

但事实上，即使是再准确的预测也有其局限性。

“It’s not possible to give extreme precipitation forecast with pinpoint accuracy hours or days in advance,” Swain said. “That’s beyond what is scientifically possible to offer.”

“提前数小时或数天精确预报极端降水是不可能的，”斯温说。“这超出了科学可能提供的范围。”

Instead, as the world keeps warming and extreme rain events become more powerful, it will be necessary for vulnerable communities to prepare for the perils of a hotter planet.

相反，随着世界持续变暖，极端降雨事件变得更加强大，脆弱的社区有必要为地球变热的危险做好准备。

‘Flood, rebuild, repeat’

“洪水，重建，周而复始”

One reason the floods were so deadly is that the affected area, known as the Texas Hill Country, has very thin topsoil, an impermeable limestone bed, steep canyons and narrow valleys.

洪水如此致命的一个原因是，被称为得克萨斯山地的受灾地区表土非常薄，石灰岩床不透水，有陡峭的峡谷和狭窄的山谷。

“It’s a recipe for flash flooding,” said Pathak, who is also a member of Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups that works on issues including climate change and flooding in the area. “It might have been a puddle in other parts of the country, but it became a really dangerous storm here, and it happened within a matter of minutes.”

“这是引发山洪暴发的原因，”帕塔克说，他也是得克萨斯州活水组织的成员，该组织是一个保护组织联盟，致力于解决该地区的气候变化和洪水等问题。“在这个国家的其他地方，都可能只是形成一个水坑，但它在这里变成了一场非常危险的风暴，而且发生在几分钟内。”

Some measures that could help the Hill Country adapt, she said, included restoring creek banks with native plants and grasses, planting more trees and increasing permeable areas, all of which could help absorb rainfall and slow rising floodwaters. As The Times reported this week, Texas has a growing backlog of flood management projects, totaling some $54 billion across the state.

她说，有一些措施可以帮助丘陵地区适应气候变化，包括在河岸上种植本地植物和草，种植更多的树木，增加可渗透的面积，所有这些都有助于吸收降雨，减缓洪水的上涨。正如《纽约时报》本周报道的那样，得克萨斯州积压的洪水管理项目越来越多，全州总计约540亿美元。

“Too much of our disaster strategy in general is very reactive in nature,” Pathak said. “It is time to replace that loop of ‘flood, rebuild, repeat’ with more forward-looking investments that keep people out of harm’s way.”

“总的来说，我们的灾难策略有太多是反应性的，”帕塔克说。“现在是时候用更具前瞻性的投资来取代‘洪水、重建，周而复始’的循环，让人们远离伤害。”

You’ve probably heard of BYD.

你可能听说过比亚迪(BYD)。

A middling player in the auto industry just a few years ago, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD surpassed Tesla last year to become the world’s top-selling E.V. brand and is expected to pull even with the world’s biggest carmakers, Toyota and Volkswagen, by 2030.

几年前，比亚迪还是汽车行业一个平平无奇的参与者，但在去年，这家中国电动汽车制造商超越特斯拉，成为全球最畅销的电动车品牌，而且预计到2030年，它将与全球最大车企丰田和大众并驾齐驱。

Yet most Americans have never even seen a BYD and probably won’t anytime soon.

然而，大多数美国人从未见过比亚迪汽车，而且短期内恐怕也不会见到。

BYD, which stands for “Build Your Dreams,” is essentially banned from American roads by tariffs, imposed to protect U.S. automakers, that double the price of imported Chinese plug-ins. Erecting tariff walls may buy the domestic auto industry some time, but it ultimately won't insulate American manufacturers from BYD or the bigger threat that it represents.

由于关税，这个以英文“Build Your Dreams”（成就梦想）的缩写为名的品牌相当于被禁止驶上美国的道路，这些关税是为了保护美国汽车制造商而设，使进口的中国插电式汽车的价格翻倍。筑起关税壁垒或许能为本国汽车行业争取到一些时间，但最终并不能使美国制造商免受比亚迪——以及它所代表的更大威胁——的冲击。

The company embodies a Chinese industrial model that is leaving America in the dust. This model, which combines government financial support, methodical long-term planning and aggressive innovation, has enabled China to achieve global dominance in a range of high-tech industries, from batteries to robotics to drones. Losing those markets to Chinese companies was bad enough. If the same happens in auto manufacturing, the impact would be far worse for America because of the industry’s size and its economic, political and strategic importance.

比亚迪代表着一种让美国望尘莫及的中国产业模式。这种模式结合了政府财政支持、有条不紊的长期规划以及积极的创新，使中国得以在从电池到机器人再到无人机的一系列高科技行业实现全球主导地位。将这些市场让给中国企业已经够糟糕了。如果汽车制造业也发生同样的情况，对美国的影响将严重得多，因为该行业的规模及其经济、政治和战略重要性都举足轻重。

The success of BYD and several other upstart Chinese car brands should be a warning for U.S. auto manufacturing and our industrial sector as a whole. We need the courage to recognize how badly we are falling behind, shake off complacency and adopt an urgent government-led effort — think of a Manhattan Project but for cars — to restore U.S. competitiveness.

比亚迪和其他几家中国新兴汽车品牌的成功应该给美国汽车制造业乃至我们整个工业领域敲响警钟。我们需要有勇气承认自己已经严重落后，并摆脱自满情绪，发起由政府主导的紧急行动——想像一个汽车业的曼哈顿计划——以恢复美国的竞争力。

When I opened my automotive business in Beijing in 1992, cars produced by China’s then-fledgling auto industry were terrible. Shoddily designed and made from cheap materials, they were quick to break down, befitting the country’s reputation at the time as a factory for inferior knockoffs. BYD, a battery manufacturer that began making cars in 2003, was no exception. For years, its cars were notorious in China as clunkers.

1992年我在北京开始我的汽车业务时，刚起步的中国汽车工业生产的车相当差。设计蹩脚，用料低廉，开不了多久就会坏，这很符合当时中国作为劣质仿制品工厂的名声。2003年开始制造汽车的电池制造商比亚迪也不例外。多年来，它的车在中国是出了名的破烂货。

Those days are long gone. I’ve driven nearly every BYD model, and they are now as good as other top brands like Tesla in terms of design, features, advanced technologies and overall quality. The company’s Blade battery is among the safest and most cost-efficient in the world, so good that Toyota and Tesla have used it in some of their cars. Most worrying for its competitors, BYDs are affordable: Its least expensive models sell in China for under $10,000, a third of the price of the most affordable electric vehicles available in the U.S. market.

但那是老黄历了。我开过比亚迪几乎所有车型，如今它们在设计、功能、先进技术和整体质量方面已经和特斯拉等其他顶级品牌不相上下。该公司的刀片电池是世界上最安全、最具成本效益的电池之一，质量好到丰田和特斯拉都在它们生产的部分汽车中使用了它。最令竞争对手担忧的是，比亚迪汽车价格实惠：最便宜的车型在中国售价不到1万美元，是美国市场最便宜的电动车价格的三分之一。

How did BYD pull this off? “Government subsidies!” Western critics will cry, and that’s of course part of the story. Chinese automakers such as BYD are believed to have received billions of dollars’ worth of state support over the years. This is state capitalism at work. Americans can complain about it all they want, but China isn’t going to scrap this model just because we don’t like it.

比亚迪是如何做到这一点的？“政府补贴！”西方的批评者会这样大喊，这当然是部分原因。据信，比亚迪等中国车企多年来获得了数十亿美元的国家补贴。这是国家资本主义在发挥作用。美国人可以尽情抱怨，但中国不会仅仅因为我们不喜欢就抛弃这种模式。

It’s also not the only reason for BYD’s success. It can build cars inexpensively thanks to what’s known as vertical integration. While most major carmakers source many important parts from outside suppliers, BYD makes almost all of its key components in-house, including batteries, semiconductors, motors and tablet screens, which saves costs and enhances quality control. It developed its cars’ operating software, has stakes in mines and mining companies that produce the minerals for its batteries and transports its vehicles around the world aboard its fleet of specially designed car-carrier ships.

政府支持也不是比亚迪成功的唯一原因。它能够降低造车成本，得益于所谓的垂直整合。虽然大多数主要汽车制造商的重要零部件都来自外部供应商，但比亚迪几乎所有的关键零部件都自己生产，包括电池、半导体、电机和平板屏幕，这节省了成本并加强了质量控制。汽车的操作系统也是自己开发的，他们还持有生产电池矿物的矿山和矿业公司的股份，并用专门设计的汽车运输船队将生产的汽车运往世界各地。

BYD is also rapidly innovating. This year it unveiled an autonomous driving system that may be as good as Tesla’s, if not better, and technology that BYD says can charge cars in just five minutes — as quickly as filling a gas tank. Its top-end models include the YangWang U8, a luxury S.U.V. that can rotate 360 degrees in place and operate in water like a boat over short distances.

比亚迪也在快速创新。今年，它发布了一项或许可以跟特斯拉媲美甚至更优的自动驾驶系统，以及据其称可以在短短五分钟内为汽车充好电的技术——就跟给油箱加满油一样快。其高端车型包括仰望U8，这是一款豪华SUV，可以原地掉头，并能像船一样在水中短距离行驶。

There’s an argument to be made that we should just let BYD into the U.S. market. It would give American consumers more bang for their buck and U.S. manufacturers a chance to learn from the company.

有人会说，我们应该让比亚迪进入美国市场。这将为美国消费者提供高性价比的产品，并为美国制造商提供向该公司学习的机会。

But BYD now has such overwhelming advantages in costs and battery technologies that it could end up destroying its U.S. competitors, endangering a critical American industry and hundreds of thousands of jobs. This is why Ford’s chief executive, Jim Farley, last year called Chinese electric vehicles an existential threat and why Elon Musk said they will “demolish” the competition without trade barriers.

但比亚迪目前在成本和电池技术方面拥有如此压倒性的优势，最终可能会摧毁其美国竞争对手，危及美国的关键产业和数十万个工作岗位。这就是为什么福特首席执行官吉姆·法利去年称中国电动车是生存威胁，以及为什么埃隆·马斯克说如果没有贸易壁垒，它们将“摧毁”竞争对手。

We can coddle American companies with tariffs, but it won’t change the fact that we are losing badly. China is, far and away, the world’s largest producer and exporter of all types of cars, including electrics. BYD and its Chinese peers may be shut out of the United States, but they are seizing control of the fast-growing global E.V. industry. Unable to compete abroad, U.S. automakers will have to retreat into the narrow space where they remain strong: the domestic market for gas-guzzling trucks and S.U.V.s.

我们可以用关税来呵护美国车企，但这改变不了我们正在惨败的事实。中国无疑是当今世界上各类汽车的最大生产国和出口国，其中包括电动车。比亚迪及其他的中国车企也许被美国拒之门外了，但它们正在拿下快速增长的全球电动汽车产业的控制权。由于无法在国外竞争，美国汽车制造商将不得不退守到它们依然强大的狭小领域：国内高油耗卡车和SUV市场。

America must take a page from China’s playbook. Ten years ago, Chinese leaders created a blueprint for domination of next-generation technologies, funneling huge sums of money into the project, knowing it would take years to pay off. BYD is just one of many examples of how this is now bearing fruit. Following China’s lead, with its heavy state involvement, would be a tough sell to many in Washington. But America has never confronted an industrial competitor like China.

美国必须借鉴中国的经验。十年前，中国领导人制定了主导下一代技术的蓝图，并为此投入巨额资金，而且他们深知这需要多年才能获得回报。比亚迪只是这一计划如今正在开花结果的众多例子之一。效仿中国这种政府深度参与的模式对华盛顿的许多人来说会难以接受。但美国在历史上还从未面对过像中国这样的产业竞争对手。

And this isn’t only about electric vehicles. A strong auto sector has important implications for national defense. Technologies developed by the automotive industry such as batteries, sensors and motors are often later adapted for use in military equipment.

而且这不仅关乎电动车。强大的汽车行业对国防具有重要意义。汽车行业开发的种种技术，如电池、传感器和电机等，后来常常会被应用于军事装备。

China’s control of supply chains for batteries and rare earth minerals used in electric vehicles is also a potential national security threat, one that we glimpsed recently when Beijing retaliated against U.S. trade tariffs by halting exports of rare earths and the magnets made from them.

中国对电动汽车所需电池和稀土矿产供应链的控制也是一个潜在的国家安全威胁，北京通过停止稀土和稀土磁铁的出口来报复美国贸易关税，让我们已经瞥见了这一点。

Led by its national champion BYD, China has overtaken Detroit as the center of the global auto industry. America can embark on an all-out push to rebuild world-class manufacturing and supply chains, or our carmakers can hide behind tariffs, continue making gas-powered trucks and S.U.V.s and fade into irrelevance.

在比亚迪这样的民族企业带领下，中国已经取代了底特律，成为全球汽车工业的中心。美国可以发起一场全面攻势，重建世界级的制造业和供应链，也可以让我们的车企躲在关税背后，继续生产燃油卡车和SUV，并最终变得无足轻重。