China’s space program took an important step on Friday toward its elusive goal of competing with Elon Musk’s company SpaceX, in the race to dominate the satellite industry.

中国的航天计划在周五迈出了重要的一步，距离一个难以企及的目标——与埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX争夺卫星产业主导权——又近了一步。

The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, a government entity, launched a Long March 10B rocket and recovered its bottom part, called the first stage, a few minutes later. This essential step toward reusing the rocket’s parts for future missions could signal a long-awaited breakthrough for Chinese satellite companies.

中国航天科技集团（一家政府实体）发射了一枚“长征十号乙”火箭（下称“长十乙”），并在几分钟后回收了被称为一子级的底部。这是未来在任务中重复使用火箭部件的一个关键步骤，可能意味着中国卫星公司将迎来期待已久的突破。

SpaceX revolutionized the industry with its partially reusable Falcon 9 rocket, whose first stage returns to the launchpad upright after launch. Falcon 9 can send satellites into orbit in rapid succession, which has given SpaceX a significant edge. Every day that passed without a reusable Chinese launcher, SpaceX pulled further ahead. SpaceX has more than 10,000 satellites in orbit and is a world leader in satellite internet.

SpaceX凭借其部分可重复使用的“猎鹰9号”火箭彻底改变了该行业，该火箭一子级在发射后会垂直返回发射台。“猎鹰9号”能够在短时间内接连将卫星送入轨道，这为SpaceX赢得了巨大的优势。中国可复用火箭一天不成，就一天无法追上日渐拉开距离的SpaceX。SpaceX在轨道上拥有超过10000颗卫星，是卫星互联网领域的全球领导者。

Chinese companies have been launching satellites with single-use rockets, letting their parts tumble back to Earth or become space debris after every launch. Two Chinese satellite constellations that hope to rival SpaceX’s have launched just over 400 satellites between them.

中国公司此前一直使用一次性火箭发射卫星，每次发射后都任由其部件跌落回地球或成为太空垃圾。两个希望与SpaceX抗衡的中国卫星星座总共仅发射了400多颗卫星。

That may be about to change.

这种情况可能即将发生改变。

The Long March 10B launched from the Wenchang spaceport in Hainan, an island off China’s southern coast, just after noon on Friday.

周五中午刚过，“长十乙”火箭从位于中国南部沿海岛屿海南的文昌航天发射场发射升空。

The rocket’s bottom part returned upright to a platform at sea, six minutes after separating from the upper part. It slowly descended to a pad that was fitted with nets to capture the rocket parts, according to a video released by Chinese state media. The nets proved to be China’s nifty solution for recovering rocket boosters.

在与火箭上部分离六分钟后，火箭底部垂直返回到海上的一个平台上。根据中国官方媒体发布的一段视频，它缓缓降落在一个安装了网具以捕捉火箭部件的平台上。事实证明，这些网具是中国回收火箭助推器的一种高明解决方案。

It is the “world’s first net‑based recovery of a launch vehicle,” the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation said.

中国航天科技集团表示，这是“全球首次运载火箭网系回收”。

The country built the offshore platform last year and tested it in February. The first stage of a predecessor rocket ended up splashing down at sea. Friday’s mission built on the results of that test, according to official statements.

中国于去年建造了这一海上平台，并在2月对其进行了测试。之前的火箭的一子级最终坠入了大海，而周五的任务正是建立在那次测试结果的基础之上。

The Long March 10B rocket was developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, a subsidiary of the government corporation. It is part of the Long March 10 series of rockets, some of which are designed for China’s first crewed mission to the Moon expected by 2030.

“长十乙”火箭由隶属于前述政府实体的中国运载火箭技术研究院研制。它是“长征十号”系列火箭的一部分，该系列中的部分火箭设计用于中国计划在2030年前执行的首次载人登月任务。

It is about 200 feet high and is designed to deliver up to 16 metric tons of spacecraft, such as satellites, to low-earth orbit. During Friday’s test, the rocket’s upper stage successfully launched an unspecified number of satellites, the government said.

火箭高约63米，旨在向近地轨道运送最重可达16吨的航天器（如卫星）。政府表示，在周五的测试中，火箭的上级成功发射了未具体说明数量的卫星。

Future flight tests will be done by the end of this year, the company said. It did not respond to questions.

该公司表示，下一次飞行测试将在今年年底前进行，但未回应相关提问。

The engines in the rocket’s first stage use liquid oxygen and kerosene and its upper stage engine uses liquid oxygen and methane.

该火箭一子级的发动机使用液氧和煤油，上级发动机则使用液氧和甲烷。

Two previous attempts had failed to create China’s answer to the Falcon 9. Landspace, a private company, was the first in China to test a partially reusable rocket in December. The rocket, Zhuque-3, launched successfully but its first stage lost control on its descent to the launchpad.

此前的两次试图打造中国版“猎鹰9号”的尝试宣告失败。去年12月，私营公司蓝箭航天在中国率先测试部分可重复使用火箭。名为“朱雀三号”的火箭成功发射，但一子级在降落回发射台时失去了控制。

Another rocket in the Long March series, the Long March 12, also failed a recovery test in December. The rocket’s upper stage arrived at the planned orbit but its bottom part could not be recovered.

长征系列中的另一枚火箭——长征十二号，也在12月的回收测试中失败。该火箭的上级抵达了预定轨道，但其底部无法回收。

Though Friday’s test represents a breakthrough, the Chinese government must conduct multiple test launches to find and solve any problems with the rocket. Only then can it hope to compete with SpaceX, which has outpaced every other global competitor over the last seven years.

尽管周五的测试代表了一项突破，但中国政府必须进行多次测试发射，以发现并解决火箭存在的任何问题。只有这样，它才有望与SpaceX展开竞争，而后者在过去七年里已经把全球每一个竞争对手甩在身后。

China has a space station and, in just a few short years, has landed robots on the moon and Mars. This week the country’s space agency is targeting new, far-flung destinations and setting off for an asteroid that could contain secrets that explain how Earth and the moon formed.

中国早已建成一个空间站，并在短短几年内将机器人送上了月球和火星。本周，中国航天将目光投向了更遥远的新目标——发射探测器前往一颗可能有助于揭开地球与月球形成之谜的小行星。

The country’s Tianwen-2 spacecraft is lifted off aboard a Long March 3B rocket from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China on Thursday around 1:31 a.m. local time, according to state media. (it was still Wednesday in New York).

据官方媒体报道，天问二号探测器已于当地时间周四（纽约时间的周三）凌晨1时31分左右，由长征三号乙运载火箭从位于中国西南部的西昌卫星发射中心发射升空。

After about a year, the robotic mission will arrive at 469219 Kamoʻoalewa, a near-Earth asteroid. There, it will perilously try to scoop up some rocky matter, and then swing back around to Earth. A capsule filled with geologic treasure would then plunge toward the planet for retrieval by scientists in late 2027.

约一年后，这个无人探测器将抵达近地小行星469219（又叫震荡天星）。在那里，它将冒险尝试采集岩石物质，随后折返地球。一个装有地质样本的返回舱将冲向地球，预计科学家将在2027年底将其回收。

If Tianwen-2 pulls this off, China will become the third nation — after Japan and the United States — to retrieve pristine material from an asteroid.

若天问二号成功完成任务，中国将成为继日本和美国之后，第三个从小行星获取原始物质的国家。

“All Chinese planetary scientists are now finger-crossed for this historic mission,” said Yuqi Qian, a lunar geologist at the University of Hong Kong.

“中国所有的行星科学家都在忐忑地期待这次历史性任务的成功，”香港大学月球地质学家钱煜奇表示。

The spacecraft also has a secondary target, an unusual comet that it could study as part of an extended mission.

探测器还有一个次要目标——一颗不寻常的彗星，作为扩展任务的一部分，它将对其展开研究。

Visiting these objects will help reveal more about the building blocks of the worlds of the inner solar system. And as asteroids can pose an impact risk to Earth, missions to study the structures and mineral makeups of these objects can aid planning to deflect or vaporize them.

造访这些天体将有助于揭示更多关于太阳系内行星形成的奥秘。鉴于小行星存在撞击地球的风险，研究其结构与矿物组成有助于制定偏转或摧毁它们的计划。

“A sample return mission is a gift that keeps on giving,” said Sara Russell, a planetary scientist at London’s Natural History Museum.

伦敦自然史博物馆的行星科学家萨拉·拉塞尔说：“样本返回任务如同一个不断带来新收获的礼物。”

While fragments of asteroids reach Earth’s surface periodically, they are contaminated and altered when they plummet through the atmosphere. Scientists prefer untouched matter from the source, brought back to study in ultraclean laboratories.

尽管小行星碎片会偶尔坠落到地球表面，但它们在穿过大气层时会遭到污染和改变。科学家更倾向于从源头获取未受干扰的物质，带回超净实验室进行研究。

“Sample return missions allow us to pick apart the physical and chemical properties of a body in a level of detail that’s not possible with remote observations by telescopes and spacecraft,” said Ashley King, a meteoriticist also at the London museum.

“样本返回任务能让我们以前所未有的精度解析天体的物理化学特性，这是望远镜或航天器远程观测无法实现的，”伦敦自然史博物馆陨石学家阿什利·金解释道。

Japan has accomplished this twice, with its Hayabusa spacecraft raiding the asteroids Itokawa in 2005 and Ryugu in 2019. NASA’s sample return mission to the asteroid Bennu, Osiris-Rex, pulled off the same feat in 2020.

日本已两次完成此类任务，它的隼鸟号探测器分别于2005年和2019年从小行星丝川和小行星“龙宫”采集样本。美国国家航空航天局的奥西里斯-Rex探测器也于2020年完成了对小行星贝努的样本采集。

China’s space agency has executed two successful sample return missions to the moon — in 2020 and 2024. But Tianwen-2 (Tianwen is often translated as “Questions to Heaven”) is China’s first foray into asteroid sample return.

中国的航天机构虽已在2020年和2024年两次成功从月球采样返回，但天问二号将是中国首次尝试小行星采样返回。

Kamoʻoalewa, the asteroid it will visit, is somewhat peculiar. As a quasi-satellite earlier known as 2016 HO3, it loops around Earth, but it is not a true moon, because it is gravitationally bound to the sun. Recent telescopic observations, though, suggest it is made of the same volcanic matter found on the moon, implying that it is a piece of the lunar surface shorn off by a meteor impact.

天问二号即将造访的这颗小行星颇为特殊。这颗曾编号2016HO3的准卫星虽绕地运行，但并非真正的地球卫星，因为它受太阳引力主导。它由与月球相同的火山物质构成，这意味着它可能是被陨石撞击后从月球表面剥离的一块碎片。

“Kamoʻoalewa, therefore, potentially holds key information about the formation and evolution of the Earth-moon system,” Dr. King said.

“因此，震荡天星可能掌握着地月系形成和演化的关键信息。”阿什利·金说。

However “its origins remain an open question,” said Benjamin Sharkey, a planetary astronomer at the University of Maryland who made those recent telescopic observations. He said he was excited that Tianwen-2 was going to bring some of the asteroid home for study, which should close the case of Kamoʻoalewa’s origins.

“然而它的起源仍然是一个未解之谜，”马里兰大学的行星天文学家本杰明·沙基说。他表示很期待天问二号能把这颗小行星的样本带回地球进行研究，这应该能解开震荡天星的起源之谜。

China has revealed few details about how Tianwen-2 will work. An academic paper posted last year offers some clues. A variety of cameras and infrared imagers will ascertain Kamoʻoalewa’s shape, size, spin and mineral makeup, while a radar system will map its internal structure.

中国对天问二号如何运转的具体细节披露有限，不过去年发表的一篇学术论文透露了若干关键信息：多光谱相机与红外成像仪将测定震荡天星的形态、尺寸、自转参数及矿物组成，同时搭载的雷达系统将对其内部结构进行测绘。

By looking at the thermal properties of Kamoʻoalewa, Tianwen-2 will also help study the Yarkovsky effect. When sunlight hits a rotating asteroid, its sunward side heats up. As it continues to spin, it cools down, which nudges the asteroid, like a small thruster. Over time, escaping heat can push a harmless asteroid onto an Earth-impacting orbit.

通过观察震荡天星的热特性，天问二号还将帮助研究雅可夫斯基效应。当阳光照射到一颗旋转的小行星时，它向阳的一面会升温。当小行星继续旋转时，它就会冷却下来，从而推动小行星，就像一个小型推进器。随着时间的推移，逸散的热量会将一颗无害的小行星推向撞击地球的轨道。

Kamoʻoalewa can get within nine million miles of Earth, making it an easy target to reach. But diving down to sample it is risky. “The sample collection and return are hardest,” Dr. Russell said, “because humans have only a very limited amount of experience in doing both.”

尽管震荡天星距离地球最近可达1448万公里，是一个容易抵达的目标，但靠近表面采集样本仍有风险。“样本采集和返回是最困难的环节，”拉塞尔说，“因为人类在这两方面的经验非常有限。”

The asteroid may be only 130 feet across — a small target. Its rapid rotation, about once every 28 minutes, poses additional challenges. “You need to find ways to either grab the sample without landing or a way to hang on as it spins,” Dr. King said.

这是颗直径仅40米左右的小行星，目标很小，加上约28分钟一圈的高速自转特性，更是增加了采样难度。“必须研发非接触式采样技术，或实现与其自转同步的锚定系统，”阿什利·金解释道。

China’s spacecraft may try doing both. “Tianwen-2 will use two methods to collect samples from Kamoʻoalewa,” Dr. Qian said.

中国的探测器可能会同时尝试这两种方法。“天问二号将使用两种方法从震荡天星采集样本，”钱煜奇说。

The first is “Touch and Go,” a method employed by the U.S. and Japanese asteroid missions: The spacecraft briefly makes contact with the object, kicks up the surface (using compressed gas, or a fired projectile) and captures jettisoned rocks before the spacecraft flees the scene.

第一种是“触地即走”，这是美国和日本小行星任务即采用该方法：探测器短暂接触天体表面，通过压缩气体或发射弹丸扬起表面物质，捕获飞溅的石块，然后撤离。

The second method, “Anchor and Attach,” has never been tested. Using a series of drills, Tianwen-2 will try to adhere to the asteroid before retrieving both shallow and deeper samples.

第二种方法，即“锚定附着”，这种方法从未进行过实地测试。天问二号将使用一系列钻头固定在小行星上，然后采集浅层和深层样本。

If Tianwen-2 navigates those dangers and eventually drops its bits of Kamoʻoalewa to Earth, it will then fly to the Comet 311P/PanSTARRS, arriving in the early 2030s to study it remotely.

若天问二号成功克服这些风险，最终将震荡天星样本投放回地球，随后将飞往311P/PanSTARRS彗星，预计2030年代初抵达并开展远程研究。

While most comets witnessed from Earth travel on long-haul journeys around the sun, 311P is a main belt comet. These icy curiosities stay within the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

与大多数需要绕太阳长途跋涉的彗星不同，311P属于主带彗星——这些罕有的冰封天体会停留在火星与木星之间的小行星带。

“These types of objects remain very mysterious,” Dr. Sharkey said, not least because icy rocks should not exist this close to the sun’s warm glow. But they may help explain how Earth became a planet with vast oceans.

“这类天体仍然非常神秘，”沙基说，尤其是因为在靠近太阳温暖光芒的地方，冰质岩石本不应存在。但它们可能有助于解释地球是如何成为一颗拥有浩瀚海洋的行星的。

Tianwen-2 is more than just a scientific sleuth. It is also a technological steppingstone for China’s ambitious Tianwen-3 mission. Due to launch in 2028, it aims to retrieve rock samples from Mars and return them to Earth. A comparable effort led by the United States to achieve the same goal is facing major hurdles.

天问二号不仅仅是一项科学探索。它也是中国雄心勃勃的天问三号任务的技术垫脚石。后者将于2028年发射，目标是从火星采集岩石样本并送回地球。美国为实现相同目标的类似计划正面临重大困难。

But the race for the red planet should not overshadow China’s first bid to acquire shards of an asteroid.

然而，这场火星竞赛不应掩盖中国首次获取小行星样本的里程碑意义。

“This is very exciting,” said Richard Binzel, a planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But asteroids present their own challenges.”

“这非常令人兴奋，”麻省理工学院行星科学家理查德·宾泽尔说，“但小行星探测自有其独特挑战。”

This week, astronomers are seeing double. Just a day after Japan’s spacecraft flew by a strange, two-lobed asteroid named Torifune, China’s space agency announced that its own robotic envoy had arrived at another space rock — an angular, compact object named 469219 Kamoʻoalewa.

本周，天文学界好事成双。日本的航天器飞掠一颗名为“鸟船”(Torifune)的奇特双叶小行星仅一天后，中国国家航天局宣布，其探测器已经抵达了另一颗太空岩石——一个名为“振荡天星”(469219 Kamoʻoalewa)的有棱角的紧凑天体。

China’s spacecraft, Tianwen-2, has been hunting down its target — a so-called quasi-moon — ever since it launched from Earth in May 2025. Finally, after a 400-day voyage around the solar system, it got within 12 and a half miles of the asteroid’s surface, allowing the spacecraft to take its first detailed photograph.

中国的航天器“天问二号”自2025年5月从地球发射升空以来，就一直在追踪其目标——一颗所谓的准卫星。最终，在围绕太阳系进行了为期400天的航行之后，它进入了距离该小行星表面约20公里的范围内，并拍摄到第一张详细照片。

Pointy, asymmetric and just 60 feet in length, Kamoʻoalewa looks very different from the far more rubbly and rotund asteroids that various uncrewed spacecraft have visited in recent years.

振荡天星呈尖锐状、不对称且长度仅约18米，这与近年来各种无人航天器探访过的那些表面更为松散、圆润的小行星看起来大相径庭。

“Kamo‘oalewa looks amazing, like nothing we’ve seen floating in space before,” said Sabina Raducan, a researcher at the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland.

位于瑞士伯尔尼的国际空间科学研究所研究员萨比娜·拉杜坎表示：“振荡天星看起来太不可思议了，跟我们以前见过的太空漂浮物截然不同。”

Its craggy, diminutive nature suggests a dramatic origin story — perhaps a high-speed collision between two large asteroids. “It could be a remnant of a catastrophic event,” said Cristina Thomas, a planetary scientist and planetary defense researcher at Northern Arizona University.

这种多岩石、体积微小的特性暗示了一个极具戏剧性的起源故事——也许是两颗大型小行星之间的一场高速碰撞。“它可能是一场灾难性事件的残余物，”北亚利桑那大学的行星科学家兼行星防御研究员克里斯蒂娜·托马斯说道。

As a quasi-moon, Kamo‘oalewa loops around and keeps in lock-step with Earth, but it’s not a genuine moon because it’s gravitationally tied to the sun. It poses no danger to us, but quasi-moons like Kamo‘oalewa offer clues as to how asteroids that started life between Mars and Jupiter ended up at Earth’s doorstep — something that scientists concerned about potentially killer asteroids are keen to learn more about.

作为一颗准卫星，振荡天星绕着地球转圈并与地球保持步调一致，但它并不是一颗真正的卫星，因为在引力上它与太阳绑定在一起。它对我们不构成危险，但像振荡天星这样的准卫星为我们提供了线索，帮助我们了解最初在火星和木星之间诞生的小行星是如何来到地球附近的——这是关注潜在毁灭性小行星的科学家们渴望更多了解的东西。

Tianwen-2 won’t just admire this asteroid from afar. After conducting science observations from above, it will swoop down and collect some pristine asteroid matter from Kamoʻoalewa before returning it to Earth in late 2027.

“天问二号”不会只是从远处欣赏这颗小行星。在从上方进行科学观测之后，它将俯冲而下，从振荡天星收集一些原始的小行星物质，然后再于2027年底将其送回地球。

“The sampling is definitely going to be challenging,” Dr. Raducan said. But if China pulls it off, it will become the third nation to lift material directly from an asteroid, after Japan and the United States.

“采样绝对将是一项具有挑战性的任务，”拉杜坎说。但如果中国成功办到，它将成为继日本和美国之后第三个直接从小行星上采集到物质的国家。

Tianwen-2, whose name is often translated to “Questions to Heaven,” traveled 620 million miles through space to rendezvous with the asteroid, which is “about the length of a bowling lane,” Dr. Thomas said. “Kamo‘oalewa is the smallest object that humans have visited with a spacecraft.”

托马斯表示，“天问二号”在太空中航行了10亿公里才与这颗小行星交会，而这颗小行星的“长度大约与一条保龄球道相当”。“振荡天星是人类利用航天器探访过的最小的天体。”

加拿大-法国-夏威夷望远镜的MegaCam相机在2016年4月28日拍摄的振荡天星相对于背景恒星移动的延时图像。

Based on Tianwen-2’s first photo, the asteroid resembles a rocky splinter. “It looks exactly like an intact shard that we get from impact experiments in laboratory,” Dr. Raducan said.

根据“天问二号”的第一张照片，该小行星酷似一块岩石碎屑。“它看起来完全就像我们在实验室撞击实验中获得的一块完整碎片，”拉杜坎说。

Scientists briefly wondered if Kamo‘oalewa might be a chunk of our own moon, created by an asteroid impact millions of years ago.

科学家们一度猜想，振荡天星是否可能是月球的一块碎片，是由数百万年前的一次小行星撞击所产生的。

That theory has fallen out of favor. Scientists found that it’s much more likely that Kamo‘oalewa started out as an object in the main belt of asteroids just beyond Mars.

这一理论如今已被抛弃。科学家们发现，振荡天星更有可能最初是作为火星之外主小行星带里的一个天体而存在的。

A recent, preliminary examination of Kamo‘oalewa using the remarkably perceptive James Webb Space Telescope also revealed it to be a very reflective object, and not something darker and moon-like. This survey also uncovered hints that its surface composition is akin to a rare type of meteorite known as an aubrite.

最近，利用敏锐度惊人的詹姆斯·韦布空间望远镜对振荡天星进行的初步检验还表明，它具备高反射率，不是月球那种相对黯淡的天体。这项调查还发现了一丝迹象，表明其表面成分类似于一种被称为顽火无球陨石(aubrite)的罕见陨石类型。

Aubrites are particularly exciting because they might come from a massive, smashed-up asteroid-like object that had its own active geologic processes, including those that made magma, rocky layers and perhaps even a metal core — almost like a miniature planet. It’s possible that Kamo‘oalewa may be the remains of something similar.

顽火无球陨石尤其令人兴奋，因为它们可能来自一个被撞碎的巨大、类似于小行星的天体，该天体自身曾拥有活跃的地质过程，包括那些产生岩浆、岩石层甚至可能是金属核心的过程——几乎就像一个微型行星。振荡天星有可能是某种类似天体的残余物。

For now, nobody can be certain as to what exactly Kamo‘oalewa may be. “It takes coordinated efforts across several disciplines to find the story that can explain everything best,” said Benjamin Sharkey, a planetary scientist at the University of Maryland.

目前，没有人能确切判定振荡天星究竟是什么。“需要跨越多个学科的协同努力，才能拼凑出最合理的解释，”马里兰大学的行星科学家本杰明·沙尔基说道。

But, if all goes according to plan, we’re about to find out the truth. Sometime in the next few months, Tianwen-2 will plunge toward Kamo‘oalewa and attempt to extract some of its rocky debris in one of several ways, including using jets of gas to agitate the surface grains into a container, and anchoring itself to the asteroid before drilling into it. Should it succeed, the spacecraft will depart Kamoʻoalewa with the goods in April 2027.

但是，如果一切按计划进行，我们即将查明真相。在接下来几个月的某个时候，“天问二号”将向振荡天星俯冲，并尝试以几种方式中的一种提取其岩石碎屑，包括利用气体喷射将表面颗粒激荡到一个容器中，以及在对其进行钻探之前将自身锚定在该小行星上。如果成功，该航天器将于2027年4月带着收获物离开振荡天星。

But the asteroid won’t make it easy for China.

但这颗小行星不会让中国轻易得手。

When the United States and Japan brought asteroid samples to Earth, the samples were pebbly objects barely held together by their own gravity. While interacting with them had their own spaceflight challenges, scooping them up into a storage capsule wasn’t too difficult.

当美国和日本将小行星样本带回地球时，样本都是仅凭自身引力勉强聚集在一起的碎石堆天体。虽然与它们接触有着自身在航天飞行方面的挑战，但将它们铲入储存舱并不是太困难。

Kamo‘oalewa, however, may be a solid, rigid rock. “It’ll be the first time we visited something like that,” said Andy Rivkin, a planetary scientist and planetary defense researcher at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Md.

然而，振荡天星可能是一块坚硬、刚性的岩石。“这将是我们第一次探访这样的东西，”位于马里兰州劳雷尔的约翰斯·霍普金斯大学应用物理实验室的行星科学家、行星防御研究员安迪·里夫金表示。

The quasi-moon’s Hawaiian name means “wobbling celestial object.” As it swivels around once every 28 minutes, it’s more like a rapidly moving spinning top — something that could imperil Tianwen-2’s touchdown.

这颗准卫星的夏威夷语名字意为“摇摆的太空天体”。由于每28分钟就会自转一圈，它更像是一个快速移动的陀螺——这可能会危及“天问二号”的着陆。

And the fact that Kamo‘oalewa is so tiny means that Tianwen-2 — which, weighing around two tons, is no pipsqueak — could have an outsize effect on the asteroid itself. “The hope is that while drilling, the spacecraft doesn’t push the asteroid on a different orbit,” Dr. Raducan said, “given that their relative sizes are so similar.”

并且，振荡天星极其微小这一事实意味着，重量大约为两吨、绝非小家伙的“天问二号”可能会对该小行星本身产生巨大的影响。“希望是在钻探时，航天器不会将该小行星推向不同的轨道，”拉杜坎说，“因为它们的大小相对来说是接近的。”

A state-owned newspaper in China recently published a satellite image of a data center in Gainesville, Va., writing in English that the development of artificial intelligence posed a threat to Americans’ physical and financial well-being.

中国的一家国有报纸最近发表了一张位于弗吉尼亚州盖恩斯维尔的数据中心卫星图像，并用英文写道，人工智能的发展对美国人的身体和财务健康构成了威胁。

A comic strip made to look as if it had been published by a Maryland news outlet — created with OpenAI’s ChatGPT by people in China, the tech company said — circulated on X this year, blaming data centers for soaring electricity bills. It showed a tycoon smoking a cigar and clutching bags of cash.

一幅伪装成马里兰州新闻媒体发布的漫画在今年X网站上流传开来。科技公司OpenAI表示，这幅漫画是由中国人使用该公司旗下的的ChatGPT创作的。漫画将电费飙升归咎于数据中心，画面中一位大亨叼着雪茄，拎着几袋现金。

A video shared on X by a known covert Russian influence operation questioned the viability of a data center that an American company, Firebird, is constructing in Armenia, the small Caucasus nation that has been a focus of Kremlin pressure. “The country’s electrical grid instability may render it useless,” the video’s narrator says.

某知名俄罗斯秘密影响行动在X上分享了一段视频，对美国公司Firebird正在亚美尼亚建造的数据中心的可行性提出质疑，这个高加索小国一直是克里姆林宫施压的焦点。“该国电网的不稳定性可能会让它变得毫无用处，”视频的旁白说道。

All are examples of a push by foreign adversaries to seize on what polls have shown is deep ambivalence — verging at times on hostility — about the spread of the data centers needed to power A.I. in the United States and elsewhere.

民意调查显示，公众对美国和其他地方人工智能所需数据中心的扩张存在深刻的矛盾心理（有时甚至接近敌意）。上述种种正是外国敌对势力企图利用这种心理的例子。

China, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iran have sought to use state media outlets to turn the controversy over data centers in the United States into “a domestic fracture point,” according to a new analysis by Alethea, a threat intelligence company, which identified scores of articles and posts on social media this year.

威胁情报公司Alethea的一份新分析报告显示，中国、俄罗斯和伊朗（程度稍逊）都试图利用官方媒体机构将美国围绕数据中心的争议转变成一个“国内撕裂点”，该公司在今年发现了数十篇相关文章和社交媒体帖子。

These campaigns, whose impact on public opinion remains to be seen, have raised alarms in Washington, where A.I. is seen as a top issue heading into this year’s midterm elections.

这些行动对公众舆论的影响究竟如何尚待观察，但它们已经在华盛顿敲响了警钟，随着今年中期选举临近，人工智能已被视为首要议题。

The foreign efforts appear intended to stoke the debate over data centers that has united political figures across the political spectrum — from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a progressive, to Stephen K. Bannon, the erstwhile adviser to President Trump.

这些外国行动似乎旨在挑起有关数据中心的辩论，而这场辩论已经让不同政治光谱的政治人物联合在了一起——从进步派的佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯到特朗普总统的前顾问斯蒂芬·K·班农。

“Foreign actors aren’t manufacturing American debates over the future of A.I., they are exploiting them,” said Jessica Brandt, a former official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence who tracked foreign influence efforts during the Biden administration.

“外国行为体并不是在凭空制造美国关于人工智能未来的辩论，他们是在利用这些辩论，”在拜登政府时期追踪外国影响活动的前国家情报总监办公室官员杰西卡·勃兰特表示。

The goal, she added, is to “deepen our divisions in order to dent our appeal and weaken us from within.”

她补充道，其目的是“加深我们的分歧，以此削弱我们的吸引力并从内部弱化我们”。

Republicans and business lobbying groups have seized on the role of China, in particular, claiming that the country’s Communist Party wants to undercut American leadership in a field that the Chinese, too, hope to dominate. They argue that China’s propaganda is an effort to slow down American development.

共和党人和商业游说团体尤其强调中国所扮演的角色，声称中国共产党想要削弱美国在这一中国自身也希望主导的领域中的领跑地位。他们辩称，中国的宣传是为了拖慢美国发展的步伐。

“We can’t allow any effort by foreign adversaries to extort these fears and undermine our technological development,” Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, wrote to the acting attorney general, Todd Blanche, referring to genuine public concerns.

“我们决不能允许外国敌对势力利用这些恐惧来削弱我们的技术发展，”阿肯色州共和党参议员汤姆·科顿在致代理司法部长托德·布兰奇的信中写道，其中的“恐惧”指的是公众的真实担忧。

The Trump administration, which after taking office dismantled many of the government teams that tracked foreign influence operations, has begun to recognize the political threat of the rising sentiment against A.I.

特朗普上任后解散了政府内许多负责追踪外国影响行动的团队，但现在也已开始意识到反对人工智能情绪高涨所带来的政治威胁。

A Gallup poll in May found that 71 percent of Americans were somewhat or strongly opposed to having a data center built near them, almost 20 percentage points higher than those who opposed construction of a nearby nuclear power plant. Many have broad concerns about the effects of A.I. on jobs and the climate, while people who live near data centers complain they are eyesores and emit annoying sounds. Some cities and counties have enacted temporary or permanent moratoriums on new construction.

盖洛普在5月的一项民意调查中发现，71%的美国人对在自家附近兴建数据中心持不同程度的反对意见，这一比例比反对在附近建造核电站的人高出近20个百分点。许多人对人工智能对就业和气候的影响持有广泛的担忧，生活在数据中心附近的人则抱怨它们既有碍观瞻又发出令人烦躁的噪音。一些县市已经发出临时或永久性停建令。

In a recent interview on Fox Business, Doug Burgum, the interior secretary, suggested that the outside influence campaigns had succeeded in building opposition to data centers. “I think some of this propaganda is being effective,” he said.

内政部长道格·伯格姆最近在福克斯商业频道接受采访时表示，外部的舆论引导行动已成功煽动了对数据中心的反对情绪。“我认为其中一些宣传正在产生效果，”他说。

The foreign campaigns follow a familiar playbook that dates back at least a decade. They often try to leverage official news organizations and social media to fuel domestic discord around hot-button issues like guns, race and vaccines, or even natural disasters like the wildfires in and around Los Angeles last year.

这些外国政治行动遵循了至少可以追溯到十年前的熟悉套路。它们经常试图利用官方新闻机构和社交媒体，围绕枪支、种族和疫苗等热门焦点问题来煽动国内不和，甚至还会利用诸自然灾害，如去年洛杉矶及其周边地区发生的山火。

Between January and June, state media in China, Russia and Iran mentioned data centers roughly 700 times, according to Alethea’s analysis. That was an average of nearly four times a day, though it remained a small fraction of overall published content about A.I. development.

根据Alethea的分析，今年1月至6月，中国、俄罗斯和伊朗的官方媒体大约700次提及数据中心。这相当于平均每天近四次，尽管这在所有关于人工智能发展的已发表内容中依然只占一小部分。

The outlets have featured articles and posts aimed at an American audience, as well as content highlighting criticism of data centers by prominent Americans, like Tucker Carlson, the conservative commentator. In Iran, state media has also highlighted links between American A.I. companies and Israel and criticized the race to develop the technology as reckless.

这些平台推出了针对美国受众的文章和帖子，并重点突出了美国名人对数据中心的批评，例如保守派评论员塔克·卡尔森。在伊朗，官方媒体还强调了美国人工智能公司与以色列之间的联系，并批评开发该技术的竞争是轻率盲目的。

Covert Russian information operations, previously identified by government officials and researchers, have recently begun to focus on data centers as a wedge issue on social media, but so far their Chinese counterparts have not done so in the same way, according to Alethea.

Alethea指出，此前被政府官员和研究人员识破的俄罗斯秘密信息行动最近已开始将数据中心作为社交媒体上的一个分裂性议题来重点关注，但到目前为止，他们的中国同行还没有以同样的方式这样做。

OpenAI did disclose last month that a small number of operatives working in China used the company’s ChatGPT platform to generate covert social media campaigns on X, including the comic strip.

不过，OpenAI在上个月透露，少数在中国境内工作的人员曾利用该公司的ChatGPT平台在X上发起秘密的社交媒体运动，其中包括前述漫画。

Other posts by the operatives promoted claims that data centers were spiking electricity costs and criticized Mr. Trump’s tariffs as a blunt tool used to win the technology race.

这些人员发布的其他帖子宣称数据中心正在推高电费，并批评特朗普的关税政策是用于赢得技术竞争的粗暴工具。

OpenAI, though, found “little to no authentic engagement” with the campaigns, and the accounts at issue were ultimately removed from X. OpenAI did not respond to requests for comment about Chinese or other foreign efforts.

但OpenAI，发现这些行动“几乎没有引起真实的互动”，相关账号最终已被X平台移除。OpenAI未回应关于中国或其他外国此类行动的置评请求。

(The New York Times has sued OpenAI and its partner, Microsoft, accusing them of copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. They have denied those claims.)

（《纽约时报》已对OpenAI及其合作伙伴微软提起诉讼，指控它们在人工智能系统相关的新闻内容上存在版权侵权行为。它们均否认了这些指控。）

Lobbyists have also weighed in to insinuate that American opposition has been fomented with support from abroad.

游说者也加入进来，暗示美国国内的反对声浪是在国外的支持下煽动起来的。

Power the Future, an energy industry group, argued recently that domestic opposition to data centers was manufactured by environmental groups financed in part by foreign donors like Hansjörg Wyss, the Swiss philanthropist and conservationist whose foundation is well known for supporting environmental issues.

能源行业团体“推动未来”(Power the Future)最近辩称，国内对数据中心的反对是由某些环保组织精心制造出来的，而这些组织的部分资金源于国外捐赠者，例如瑞士慈善家兼环保人士汉斯约格·维斯(Hansjörg Wyss)，他的基金会因支持环保议题而广为人知。

In a statement, the Wyss Foundation said it did not provide grants to oppose data centers. “These reports are false, misleading and an attempt by special interests to manipulate the public into accepting data centers,” the statement said.

维斯基金会在声明中表示，它并未提供资金去反对数据中心。“这些报告是虚假的、具有误导性的，是特定利益集团试图操纵公众去接受数据中心的一种企图，”声明说。

Another pair of reports, by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, a cryptocurrency advocacy group in Washington, also detailed what the group’s researchers called an “extensive, multiyear influence campaign” by China to sway the A.I. race.

华盛顿加密货币倡导组织比特币政策研究所(Bitcoin Policy Institute)也发布了另外两份报告，详细阐述了其研究人员所称的由中国发起的“广泛且耗时数年的影响行动”，旨在左右人工智能竞争。

As evidence, the reports cited an invitation by Mr. Sanders for two Chinese-government-linked academics to attend a conference on Capitol Hill in April. They also criticized political donations to liberal organizations from Neville Roy Singham, an American tech entrepreneur who is based in Shanghai and has long been a subject of criticism for supporting Chinese propaganda campaigns.

作为证据，报告引用了桑德斯在4月邀请两名与中国政府有联系的学者参加国会山会议一事。他们还批评了常驻上海的美国科技企业家罗一(Neville Roy Singham)向自由派组织的政治捐款，罗一长期以来因支持中国的宣传活动而遭受批评。

“There is an organic opposition to data centers,” the author of the reports, Sam Lyman, said. “What we are calling for is simply transparency, though, because we’ve been able to document an inorganic element that runs parallel to this specific opposition movement.”

“对数据中心的反对声音是自发产生的，”报告的作者萨姆·莱曼说。“我们所呼吁的仅仅是透明度，因为我们已经能够证实，有一种非自发的因素正与这场特定的反对运动平行并存。”

Mr. Sanders and Mr. Singham did not respond to a request for comment.

桑德斯和罗一未回应置评请求。

The Chinese government, through its embassy in Washington, disputed accusations that it was trying to stoke protests in the United States — something it has accused the United States of doing inside China.

中国政府通过其驻华盛顿大使馆对关于其试图在美国煽动抗议的指控提出了异议——中方此前曾指责美国在中国境内从事此类活动。

“The allegations are completely unfounded and constitute smears and defamation,” a spokesman, Liu Chang, said in response to questions, noting that the United States and China needed “to work together to promote the development and improve the governance of A.I. to make sure it will better contribute to social progress.”

发言人刘畅在回应提问时表示：“这些指控完全毫无根据，构成了抹黑和诽谤，”并指出美中两国需要“共同努力促进AI的发展并改善其治理，以确保其能更好地为社会进步做出贡献”。

Not all of the anti-A.I. content online has an overtly political purpose. Other actors appear to be exploiting the issue simply to build engagement.

网络上的反人工智能内容并非全都带有明显的政治目的。其他行为体似乎仅仅是利用这一议题来赚取流量。

Alethea tracked a network of inauthentic accounts on Facebook that has been posting images appearing to highlight Americans’ opposition to data centers. They include images generated by artificial intelligence showing, for example, a field of crops carved into a massive obscene hand gesture, each tailored to users in different American states. “This is what Oklahoma thinks of data centers,” one says.

Alethea追踪到了Facebook上的一个虚假账号网络，该网络一直在发布似乎旨在凸显美国人反对数据中心的图像。其中包括由人工智能生成的图像，例如一片农田被雕刻成一个巨大的不雅手势，每张图片都针对美国不同州的用户的口味进行了定制。“这就是俄克拉何马州对数据中心的看法，”其中一张写道。

The network has digital traces linking it geographically to Bangladesh, Alethea found. It includes dozens of groups or accounts on Facebook and Instagram that feature names like “Life in Texas” or “I Love Minnesota.” Amid a steady stream of A.I. “slop” are posts opposing data centers.

Alethea发现，该网络留下的数字痕迹在地域上指向了孟加拉国。它包括Facebook和Instagram上数十个带有“德克萨斯生活”或“我爱明尼苏达”等名称的群组或账号。在源源不断的人工智能垃圾内容中夹杂着反对数据中心的帖子。

McKenzie Sadeghi, a principal analyst at Alethea, called the posts “rural rage bait.”

Alethea的首席分析师麦肯齐·萨德吉将这些帖子称为“乡村愤怒诱饵”。

“Data centers are likely the ideal topic for engagement-maximizing operators,” she said. “It is locally salient in all 50 states, fresh, and it maps onto pre-existing anti-China, anti-tax, ‘selling America’ grievance.”

“对于那些追求互动最大化的运营者来说，数据中心可能是最理想的话题，”她说。“它在全美所有50个州都具有地方敏感性、具有新鲜度，而且它能够与现有的反华、反税收以及对‘出卖美国’的怨恨无缝对接。”

Volkswagen said Thursday that it would cut the number of models it offers by as much as half to reduce costs and better compete with Chinese companies. But the German carmaker did not say what those changes would mean for workers who have been bracing for large job cuts and factory closures.

大众汽车周四表示，将把旗下车型阵容最多削减一半，以降低成本并更好地与中国车企竞争。但这家德国汽车制造商并未说明这些调整对一直在准备应对大规模裁员和工厂关闭的员工意味着什么。

The plan, released after a board meeting, seemed to be a tacit acknowledgment that the company had gotten too big and complicated and needed to slim down to survive the global shift from fossil fuel cars to electric vehicles. That transition has upended many established carmakers and enabled the rise of Chinese automakers.

这项计划是在监事会会议结束后对外公布的，似乎是对公司规模过于庞大、运营过于复杂的一种默认，也意味着公司需要瘦身，才能在全球汽车业从燃油车向电动车转型的过程中存活下来。这一转型令许多老牌汽车制造商阵脚大乱，同时也推动了中国车企的崛起。

In recent days, German press reports had suggested that the company was preparing to lay off 100,000 workers by the end of the decade and close four factories in Europe.

近日，德国媒体报道称，大众汽车准备在2030年前裁员10万人，并在欧洲关闭四座工厂。

Such drastic cuts would be out of character for Volkswagen and German industry, which tend to prefer gradual changes. Labor representatives and political leaders from the German state of Lower Saxony have a majority on the company’s 20-person supervisory board and had signaled they did not support deep cuts.

对大众汽车及德国工业界而言，如此大刀阔斧的裁员实属罕见。德国企业通常更倾向于循序渐进地进行调整。大众汽车的20人监事会中，劳工代表和下萨克森州的政治领导人占据了多数席位，此前他们已表示不支持大规模裁员。

Still, some pain seems inevitable. The company said it would aim to produce nine million cars a year, compared with a goal of 12 million before the pandemic and 10 million more recently. In a video statement, Oliver Blume, Volkswagen’s chief executive, said there was a need to “get rid of excess capacity,” implying that the company could still close factories.

尽管如此，一些阵痛似乎不可避免。大众表示，将把年产量目标定为900万辆，而疫情前的目标曾高达1200万辆，近期目标也有1000万辆。大众汽车首席执行官奥利弗·布鲁姆在一段视频声明中表示，有必要“去除过剩产能”，言下之意是公司仍有可能关闭部分工厂。

“The geopolitical situation has become more critical in the last 12 months,” Mr. Blume said, adding, “The next few years will decide who will play a decisive role in the automotive industry.”

“过去12个月，地缘政治局势愈发严峻，”布鲁姆说。他还表示，“未来几年将决定谁能在汽车行业占据举足轻重的地位。”

But he provided few specifics, including whether or how the company would aim to remain the world’s second-largest automaker after Toyota, as measured by cars sold.

不过，他并未透露更多具体细节，包括大众是否以及如何维持仅次于丰田的全球第二大汽车制造商地位（以销量计）。

“The urgent questions were not answered by the supervisory board today,” Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, director of the Center Automotive Research in Bochum, Germany, said in an email. “The insecurity remains.”

位于德国波鸿的汽车研究中心主任费迪南德·杜登霍夫在电子邮件中表示：“监事会今天没有回答那些最迫切的问题，不确定性依然存在。”

Volkswagen has 111 production facilities on every continent except Australia and Antarctica, according to the company’s website. Its brands include Audi, Porsche, Skoda, Lamborghini and Bentley. Volkswagen also owns 88 percent of Traton, which makes MAN, Scania and International trucks.

根据公司官网，大众汽车在全球除澳大利亚和南极洲外的各大洲拥有111处生产设施。旗下品牌包括奥迪、保时捷、斯柯达、兰博基尼和宾利。大众还持有传拓集团88%的股份，后者生产MAN、斯堪尼亚和International品牌的卡车。

Some of Volkswagen’s brands offer very similar cars with slightly different designs and features, a practice that can increase costs and complexity. General Motors and Ford Motor retired brands like Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Saturn and Mercury years ago to simplify production and marketing.

大众汽车旗下部分品牌提供的车型设计和配置极为相近，这一做法会增加成本和运营复杂度。通用汽车和福特多年前已相继停产庞蒂亚克、奥兹莫比尔、土星和水星等品牌，以简化生产和营销体系。

In Neckarsulm, in southwestern Germany, where some 15,000 workers assemble models for Audi, residents fear a plant closure would devastate a local economy built around the rhythms of factory shifts.

在德国西南部的内卡苏尔姆，约有1.5万名工人从事奥迪车型的组装工作。当地居民忧心忡忡，如果工厂关闭，围绕工厂班次节奏建立的本地经济将遭受毁灭性打击。

“If Audi dies, everything here dies,” said Cayli Halin, 54, who works in the plant’s testing center.

“如果奥迪倒下了，这里的一切都会跟着完蛋，”54岁的凯利·哈林说，她在工厂的测试中心工作。

Left unclear by Thursday’s announcement was how many of Volkswagen’s 657,000 employees worldwide could lose their jobs as the company reduces production. The company’s profit fell 28 percent in the first quarter to 1.6 billion euros, or $1.8 billion, and its sales were down 2 percent.

周四的公告并未厘清一个关键问题：随着大众减产，其全球65.7万名员工中，究竟有多少人可能面临失业。该公司一季度利润下降28%至16亿欧元（约合18亿美元），销量亦下降2%。

Porsche, which has usually provided a large share of Volkswagen’s profits, has suffered from President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported cars. Porsche sports cars and sport utility vehicles are manufactured in Germany and exported to the United States, one of the brand’s most important markets.

保时捷一直以来都是大众利润的重要来源，但由于特朗普总统对进口汽车征收25%的关税，保时捷也遭受了冲击。保时捷的跑车和SUV都在德国生产，再出口到美国——该品牌最重要的市场之一。

Volkswagen’s troubles are an ominous sign for established Western and Japanese carmakers. To varying degrees, all of them are grappling with changing technology and competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD and Geely that are selling cars packed with luxury features for relatively low prices.

大众汽车的困境对西方和日本的传统汽车制造商而言是一个不祥之兆。它们或多或少都在应对技术变革，以及来自比亚迪、吉利等中国车企的竞争——这些中国品牌正以相对低廉的价格出售豪华配置的汽车。

In the European Union and Britain, Chinese automakers collectively sold more vehicles in May than Japanese carmakers, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.

根据欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据，在欧盟和英国，中国汽车制造商5月份的总销量已超过日本车企。

Encouraged by government subsidies, Chinese carmakers began focusing on electric vehicles years ago, investments that have given them a strong advantage as more Europeans buy such models. About one in five new vehicles sold in Europe is electric and sales have surged this year because of the increase in fuel prices caused by the war with Iran.

在政府补贴的推动下，中国车企多年前便开始专注发展电动车，在越来越多欧洲消费者购买电动车的背景下，这些投资如今让它们占据了明显优势。目前，欧洲每售出五辆新车，就约有一辆是电动车。今年，由于伊朗战争推高油价，电动车销量大幅增长。

Volkswagen is particularly vulnerable because for many years a lot of its profit came from selling cars in China, where it was once the top automaker. The company’s sales in China plunged 20 percent in the first quarter after falling significantly for several years.

大众汽车尤为脆弱，因为多年来中国市场一直是其利润的重要来源——大众曾经长期是中国销量最高的汽车品牌。然而在连续数年销量大幅下滑后，今年一季度大众在华销量再度骤降20%。

Fears of plant closures have rattled Germany, where the automobile industry — and Volkswagen in particular — occupy hallowed spaces in the national consciousness and are a pillar of the national economy.

工厂关闭的担忧震动了德国，汽车工业——尤其是大众汽车——在德国民众的心中占据着神圣地位，该行业也是德国经济的重要支柱。

Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government have attempted to boost the industry with new subsidies and by pushing European Union officials in Brussels to relax some automotive regulations, among other steps, in hopes of helping German automakers compete better with Chinese rivals.

德国总理默茨及其政府一直试图通过新的补贴政策，以及推动布鲁塞尔的欧盟官员放宽部分汽车行业监管等措施，希望帮助德国汽车制造商更好地与中国竞争对手竞争。

Mr. Merz did not address the rumored Volkswagen layoffs ahead of Thursday’s board meeting, but a spokesman, Stefan Kornelius, told reporters last week that “our goal is to prevent plant closures in Germany.”

在周四的大众汽车监事会会议前，默茨未就传闻中的大众裁员消息表态，但政府发言人斯特凡·科内利乌斯上周对记者表示，“我们的目标是避免德国境内出现工厂关闭。”

Ali Alp Cagan, 31, has worked as an information technology professional at Audi for almost two years and isn’t personally worried about layoffs, because he considers his job prospects to be strong.

31岁的阿里·阿尔普·贾根在奥迪从事信息技术工作已近两年，他本人并不担心裁员，因为他认为自己就业前景依然乐观。

“Overall, however, the situation is already nervous,” he said.

“但总体而言，气氛已经很紧张了，”他说。

Mr. Cagan and other workers leaving the plant for a recent shift change blamed the company, saying it had failed to innovate and that China now builds cheaper and better cars.

在最近一次换班时，与其他离开工厂的员工一样，贾根也将问题归咎于公司自身，认为大众未能保持创新，而中国现在能制造更便宜、更好的汽车。

The plight of the German auto industry has empowered far-right and far-left political parties in the country. At the Audi plant in Neckarsulm, members of the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany were recently passing out fliers urging workers to participate in an unauthorized pre-emptive strike against any closures.

德国汽车产业的困境也为国内的极右翼和极左翼政党提供了可乘之机。在内卡苏尔姆的奥迪工厂外，德国马列主义党的成员最近一直在向工人发传单，呼吁他们针对关闭计划发起未经工会批准的先发制人罢工。

Civic leaders and business owners in the city worry for their community. Pauline Spies, 56, said the company’s troubles were already hurting business at her travel agency, Michigan Tours.

当地的社区领袖和商界人士对社区的前途深感忧虑。56岁的波琳·斯派斯说，公司的困境已经开始影响她的旅行社“密歇根旅游”的生意。

Harry Leinmüller, 67, has similarly noticed a drop in spending at his wife’s tea shop, Teecultur, which is positioned to catch workers on the side of the street they usually take when walking home from the plant. He worries layoffs will hurt even more.

67岁的哈里·莱因米勒也注意到，他妻子经营的茶叶店Teecultur生意越来越冷清。这家店正好位于工厂员工下班回家常走的那一侧街道。他担心，一旦裁员，生意还会进一步恶化。

“There are so many young people here; some have bought building plots in the countryside. Many won’t be able to pay for their houses anymore,” he said. “The Chinese are faster than us and have more know-how.”

“这里有这么多年轻人；有些人已经在乡下买了地准备盖房。很多人以后可能连房贷都还不起了，”他说。“中国人比我们动作更快，技术也更领先。”

The mayor, Steffen Hertwig, 56, said a plant closure would be “fatal” for the area. But he was adamant that Volkswagen wouldn’t close this Audi factory because it was too innovative. The situation, he said, “is in no way comparable to Detroit in the 1980s.”

56岁的市长斯特芬·赫特维希表示，工厂关闭对该地区将是“致命”打击。但他坚称大众不会关闭这家奥迪工厂，因为它太具创新性。他说，现在的局面“跟80年代的底特律根本不是一回事”。

Omar Yaghi, an immigrant to the United States who shared last year’s Nobel Prize in Chemistry, has left his faculty post at the University of California, Berkeley, for one in China, where he will lead an institute using artificial intelligence to accelerate the discovery of new materials.

移居美国的科学家奥马尔·亚吉去年与他人共同获得诺贝尔化学奖。如今他已辞去加州大学伯克利分校的教职，前往中国任职。在那里，他将领导一个利用人工智能加速新材料发现的研究所。

Dr. Yaghi’s move comes amid the Trump administration’s continuing disruptions of U.S. science funding and China’s efforts to woo international scientists with hefty budgets.

亚吉这一举动正值特朗普政府持续干扰美国科学资助，以及中国努力用丰厚预算招揽国际科学家之际。

Last week, Tsinghua University in Beijing welcomed Dr. Yaghi in an appointment ceremony, calling him one of the world’s foremost chemists. The university said he saw his new post as an opportunity “not to slow down, not to repeat what has already been done, but to do science with more energy, more intensity, and more ambition than ever before.”

上周，位于北京的清华大学举行聘任仪式欢迎亚吉，称他是世界上最杰出的化学家之一。该大学表示，亚吉将自己的新职位视为一个机会，“不是放慢脚步，不是重复已经做过的事情，而是要以比以往任何时候都更多的精力、更高的强度和更大的雄心来做科学研究。”

“China is increasing its investment in science overall, including chemistry,” said Alessandra Zimmermann, a budget analyst at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, a scientific group based in Washington, D.C. The best measures of scientific accomplishment, she added, show that China “has been outperforming the U.S. in top chemistry papers.”

“中国正在增加对包括化学在内的整体科学投资，”总部位于华盛顿特区的科学组织美国科学促进会的预算分析师亚历山德拉·齐默尔曼说。她还说，衡量科学成就的最佳指标显示，中国“在顶级化学论文方面表现一直优于美国”。

Last year, three of America’s six winners of science Nobels were born outside the country. In this century, overall, the émigré fraction for U.S. Nobels in physics, chemistry and medicine now stands at 40 percent.

去年，美国六位科学类诺贝尔奖获得者中有三位出生在美国境外。总体而言，在本世纪，美国物理学、化学和医学诺贝尔奖得主中，移民的比例目前达到了40%。

In an interview, Ram Seshadri, a professor of chemistry and materials science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, said Dr. Yaghi’s move to China shed light on a fast-emerging dynamic between the two nations. “They’ve overtaken us in many areas of materials science and chemistry,” he said, referring to China. “They’re willing to invest very large sums of money to attract new talent.”

加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的化学和材料科学教授拉姆·塞沙德里在接受采访时表示，亚吉迁往中国凸显了两国之间迅速显现的动态变化。“在材料科学和化学的许多领域，他们已经超过了我们，”他在提到中国时说。“他们愿意投入巨额资金来吸引新人才。”

A subfield of chemistry, materials science is the underlying force behind many of the innovations that define modern life, from the silicon chips in smartphones to the carbon fibers in racing bikes to the biomaterials of medical implants. By nature, it’s an interdisciplinary field that investigates the relationship between the structure of materials at an atomic or molecular scale and their macroscopic properties.

作为化学的一个分支，材料科学是许多定义现代生活的创新背后的驱动力，从智能手机中的硅芯片、竞速自行车中的碳纤维，到医疗植入物中的生物材料均是如此。本质上，这是一门跨学科领域，研究材料在原子或分子尺度上的结构与其宏观属性之间的关系。

Dr. Yaghi was born in Amman, Jordan, to Palestinian refugees whose one-room home lacked electricity and running water. Early on, he became fascinated with a schoolbook’s depiction of atomic building blocks. When he was 15, his father, a butcher, sent him to the United States.

亚吉出生于约旦安曼的一个巴勒斯坦难民家庭，他们家中只有一个房间，没有电也没有自来水。早年，他便对教科书上描绘的原子构件产生了浓厚兴趣。15岁时，做屠夫为生的父亲将他送到了美国。

Last year, before flying to Stockholm to receive his Nobel Prize, Dr. Yaghi in an interview with The New York Times voiced concern about Mr. Trump’s immigration policies, saying that they endanger the nation’s system of universities, companies and governments that promote scientific excellence.

去年，在飞往斯德哥尔摩领取诺贝尔奖之前，亚吉在接受《纽约时报》采访时对特朗普的移民政策表达了担忧，称这些政策危及了美国大学、企业和政府共同构成的、致力于推动科学卓越发展的体系。

“I think it’s regrettable,” he said of Mr. Trump’s nationalism.

“我认为这令人遗憾，”他在谈到特朗普的民族主义时表示。

“We have to know that people coming from different backgrounds improve the level for everybody involved,” he added. “That’s an amazing story. Great thinkers can improve not only the U.S. but the world.”

“我们必须认识到，来自不同背景的人能提高所有参与者的水平，”他还说。“那是一个了不起的故事。伟大的思想家不仅能改善美国，也能改善整个世界。”

Dr. Yaghi joined the University of California, Berkeley, in 2012, and while there earned many awards for his scientific advances.

亚吉于2012年加入加州大学伯克利分校，在任期间因其科学成就荣获多项奖项。

He received his Nobel Prize for helping discover a world of chemistry in which molecular building blocks are assembled into structures that possess vast internal surface areas — the largest of any known substance. His porous structures can act like sponges that readily absorb, store and release gases and vapors.

他因帮助发现了一个全新的化学领域而获得诺贝尔奖。在这个领域里，分子构件被组装成具有巨大内部表面积的结构——其表面积之大在已知物质中首屈一指。他研发的多孔结构可以像海绵一样，轻松吸收、储存和释放气体与蒸汽。

He named them metal-organic frameworks. The metal atoms form an adjustable framework that can hold chemicals associated with life — carbon atoms in particular. While deeply theoretical, the frameworks are so radical, innovative and flexible in nature that materials experts and companies foresee many commercial uses for them.

他将其命名为金属有机框架。金属原子形成了一个可调节的框架，能够容纳与生命相关的化学物质——尤其是碳原子。尽管这些框架理论色彩很强，但它们在本质上激进、创新且灵活，所以材料专家和公司预见它们具有许多商业用途。

The frameworks can, for instance, harvest water from desert air. In 2018, Dr. Yaghi’s students at Berkeley tested the idea in the Mojave Desert in California, finding that a small passive harvester could each day produce nearly three cups of pure, drinkable water. The device is now nearing commercialization.

例如，这种框架可以从沙漠空气中收集水分。2018年，亚吉在伯克利的学生在加利福尼亚州的莫哈韦沙漠测试了这一想法，发现一个小型被动式收集器每天可以产生将近三杯纯净的饮用水。该设备目前已接近商业化。

In the interview with The Times, Dr. Yaghi credited the invention to his boyhood efforts to secure water for his family. The municipal pipes worked for only a few hours every week or two. That hardship, he added, shows how the diverse experiences of émigrés can lead to unexpected breakthroughs.

在接受《纽约时报》采访时，亚吉将这项发明归功于他童年时期为家人找水的经历。当时市政管道每隔一两周才供水几个小时。他还说，这种艰辛经历表明，移民的多样化经历能够带来意想不到的突破。

Dr. Yaghi has longstanding ties with Tsinghua University. In 2022, the Beijing school appointed him as an honorary professor and in that role he closely followed its work in chemistry, materials science and related disciplines.

亚吉与清华大学有着长期的联系。2022 年，这所北京的高校任命他为名誉教授，在此期间，他密切关注着该校在化学、材料科学及相关学科领域的工作。

Now, on joining Tsinghua full time, Dr. Yaghi is being named as the head of a new A.I. institute for science research that will focus on the design and synthesis of new materials.

如今，在全职加入清华后，亚吉被任命为一个新成立的人工智能科学研究所的负责人，该研究所将专注于新材料的设计与合成。

Its underlying aim, the university said, is to “overcome the efficiency bottlenecks of traditional trial-and-error approaches” and shorten the usual cycles of discovery.

该大学表示，其根本目标是“破解传统试错研发模式的效能瓶颈”，并缩短常规的发现周期。

Iran, fearing that its hold over the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was gradually slipping away, risked overplaying its hand by again firing on oil tankers and potentially rekindling a major war with the United States, analysts said.

分析人士指出，因担心逐渐丧失对霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航道的控制，伊朗不惜再次向油轮开火，从而冒了过度下注的风险，这有可能会重新点燃与美国之间的一场大规模战争。

Both sides threatened on Wednesday to scuttle the Memorandum of Understanding that they had signed on June 17 to establish a blueprint for peace talks and extended a wobbly cease-fire in place since April. American warplanes carried out even more intensive attacks on scores of targets across Iran overnight, while Iran vowed to ratchet up drone and missile strikes against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.

双方在周三均威胁要废除于6月17日签署的谅解备忘录，该备忘录曾为和平谈判确立了蓝图，并延长了自4月以来一直处于不稳定状态的停火协议。美国战机连夜对伊朗境内的数十个目标发起了更为密集的袭击，而伊朗则誓言要加大对波斯湾内美国盟友的无人机和导弹袭击力度。

The basic bargain in the vaguely worded, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding was that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping in exchange for badly needed economic relief. Thornier issues, including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, were kicked down the road for further negotiations. But very little changed.

这份措辞模糊、包含14点内容的谅解备忘录的核心交易是，伊朗将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以允许商业航运，以此换取其迫切需要的经济缓解。而包括伊朗核计划去向在内的一些更为棘手的问题则被推迟到未来的谈判中。但实际情况几乎没有任何改变。

“The M.O.U. increasingly looked like a mirage,” said Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran analyst and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The view from Tehran is that the U.S. is engaged in a concerted effort to take control of the Strait out of Iran’s hands, to weaken its position in Lebanon and to regain its own strength in order to put even more pressure on Iran or to go back to war.”

“这份谅解备忘录越来越像是一个海市蜃楼，”资深伊朗问题分析师、约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院教授瓦里·纳斯尔表示。“德黑兰方面的看法是，美国正致力于通过协同努力，将海峡的控制权从伊朗手中夺走，以削弱其在黎巴嫩的势力，恢复自身实力，从而对伊朗施加更大的压力或重新开战。”

As the 60-day clock on the agreement ticked away, Iran grew increasingly frustrated that the U.S. Navy was encouraging maritime traffic to take a southern route along the coast of Oman rather than respecting Iranian demands that all traffic register with its newly minted Hormuz transit authority, a precursor to charging fees. Traffic last weekend was about one-third of the prewar level of more than 100 ships daily, split evenly between the Iranian and Omani sides of the waterway, according to Kpler, which tracks marine traffic.

随着该协议的60天倒计时的进行，伊朗变得越来越不满美国海军的做法，后者一直在鼓励海上交通采取沿阿曼海岸的南部航线，无视伊朗提出的所有通行船只必须在其新成立的霍尔木兹运输管理局登记的要求，这种登记意味着今后可能会收费。追踪海上交通的机构开普勒的数据显示，上周末的交通量约为战前水平（每日100多艘船只）的三分之一，水道的伊朗侧和阿曼侧占比相当。

In addition, the United States was working to conclude a separate peace between Lebanon and Israel that would include the long-elusive goal of disarming Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy force in Lebanon. Finally, in public discussions about financial aid, the scale kept shrinking.

此外，美国还正致力于促成黎巴嫩与以色列之间单独达成和平，其中将包括将黎巴嫩真主党——伊朗在黎巴嫩的主要代理人武装——解除武装这一长期难以实现的目标。最后，在关于财政援助的公开讨论中，援助规模一直在缩水。

Instead, even amid the weeklong funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader killed in the war in February, the Iranians decided to strike rather than wait for their leverage to dissipate, analysts said. Projectiles hit three tankers transiting the strait on Tuesday, although Iran did not claim responsibility.

分析人士指出，伊朗人因此转而决定发动袭击，而不是坐视自己的筹码消失，尽管该国正在为2月战争中丧生的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊举行持续数周的葬礼。周二，三艘正在穿过海峡的油轮被击中，但伊朗并未宣称对此负责。

The perception by Iran that it had bested the United States and Israel in the war earlier this year likely helped lead to the renewed confrontation, analysts said.

分析人士表示，伊朗认为自己在今年早些时候的战争中击败了美国和以色列，这种认知可能促成了对抗的重启。

本周在德黑兰举行的葬礼游行期间，哀悼者们聚集在街头，手中举着在战争中丧生的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊以及他的继任者莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的照片。

“Having withstood this pummeling from the U.S. and Israel, they are probably feeling quite secure,” said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who has advised both Republican and Democratic administrations on Middle East policy. “I think the timing of the attacks, coinciding with these funeral ceremonies, demonstrates a bit of triumphalism on the part of the regime that they finally, essentially extricated themselves from the war. They’re able to bury their dead, and they’re still firing back. There’s a message in that for sure.”

“在顶住了来自美国和以色列的如此沉重的打击后，他们现在可能感觉相当有把握，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会高级研究员苏珊·马洛尼表示，她曾就中东政策向两党政府提供过咨询。“袭击发生的时间恰逢这些葬礼仪式，我认为这是伊朗政权的某种胜利宣示，即他们终于从战争中基本解脱了出来。他们能够埋葬死者，而且依然在开火反击。这里面肯定传递出了某种信息。”

Even if shipping had flowed freely before the war, the message from Iran was that it intended to enforce a newfound chokehold over the strait, analysts said. The United States, which had lifted oil sanctions against Iran that had been in place for decades, immediately reimposed them.

分析人士指出，在战前航运可以自由通行时，伊朗就已经表现出有意对该海峡实施一种全新的卡脖子式控制。美国原本已经取消了实施数十年的伊朗石油制裁，结果因此立即恢复制裁。

Iran professed not to care. “Revenue is subordinate to control,” Majid Shakeri, an Iranian economist and adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Parliament speaker and lead negotiator, said on state television. “Either we hold onto the strait, or every single one of us becomes martyrs for it.”

伊朗则表现出并不在乎的态度。“控制比收入更重要，”伊朗经济学家、议长兼首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫的顾问马吉德·沙克里在国家电视台上面表示。“要么我们守住海峡，要么我们每一个人都为此成为烈士。”

Still, both sides make a habit of fierce rhetoric and bluster, analysts noted, and tend to use warfare as a form of negotiation. Mr. Trump did not entirely dismiss the idea of getting negotiations back on track.

不过分析人士也注意到，双方都有发表激烈言辞和进行恐吓的习惯，并且往往将战争作为谈判的一种形式。特朗普并未完全排除让谈判重新回到正轨的想法。

Ultra hard-liners in Iran have long assailed the very idea of negotiations, so there have been calls to withdraw from the memorandum of understanding over the situation in the strait.

伊朗国内的极端强硬派长期以来一直认为根本不应该谈判，因此目前出现了因海峡局势而要求退出谅解备忘录的呼声。

“I think it is mostly posturing,” said Nate Swanson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who previously served as director for Iran at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “I think it is akin to what Trump is doing. He is negotiating through kinetic actions and loud threats, so in some ways they are speaking the same language.”

“我认为这主要是一种姿态，”大西洋理事会高级研究员内特·斯旺森表示，他此前曾在拜登总统任内的国家安全委员会担任伊朗事务主任。“我认为这与特朗普正在做的事情类似。他正在通过军事行动和大声威胁来进行谈判，所以在某些方面他们讲的是同一种语言。”

Iran was betting that Mr. Trump, expressing annoyance with the conflict and facing difficult midterm elections in four months, would not gamble on restarting an unpopular war, analysts suggested.

分析人士认为，伊朗是在押注特朗普不愿冒险重启一场不得人心的战争，他此前对这场冲突表达了厌烦，且在四个月后面临着艰难的中期选举。

Yet Mr. Trump unleashed a tirade against the Iranians, assailing their leaders as “evil” and “scum” and suggesting that the United States would hit Iran even harder. He called the cease-fire “over.”

然而，特朗普对伊朗人发起了严厉的抨击，斥责他们的领导人“邪恶”，是“人渣”，并暗示美国将对伊朗进行更沉重的打击。他宣布停火已经“结束”。

“They risk misreading President Trump which they have done over and over again,” said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who is a retired U.S. Army colonel and a former special envoy for Syria during the first Trump administration. Iran has a long habit of taking provocative actions like firing on the tankers and then acting as the aggrieved party, he said, “They are overplaying their hand.”

“他们冒了误读特朗普总统的风险，而这种误读他们已经一而再、再而三地犯过了，”哈德逊研究所高级研究员、退役美国陆军上校乔尔·雷伯恩表示，他曾在第一任特朗普政府期间担任叙利亚问题特使。他指出，伊朗长期以来有一种习惯，即采取向油轮开火等挑衅行动，然后又表现得像是个受害者，“他们正在过度下注。”

It would not be the first time. Right after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the new hard-line government in Tehran held onto American Embassy hostages for 444 days, far longer than they served as useful bargaining chips, and had billions of dollars of assets in Western financial institutions seized in return. In 1982, Iran declined a truce in the Iran-Iraq war, leading to six more years of brutal fighting and hundreds of thousands of casualties.

这已经不是第一次了。在1979年伊斯兰革命之后，德黑兰新成立的强硬派政府扣押美国大使馆人质长达444天，远超其作为有用谈判筹码的期限，并导致其在西方金融机构的数十亿美元资产被冻结。1982年，伊朗拒绝了两伊战争停战协议，导致两国间进行了一场长达六年的残酷冲突，伤亡数十万人。

At least 28 people have died in a fire at a shoe factory in southeastern China on Thursday, according to Chinese state media. The latest in a string of deadly workplace accidents to rock the country this year, it prompted an immediate response from China’s leader.

据中国官方媒体报道，周四，中国东南部一家鞋厂发生火灾，已造成至少28人死亡。这是今年以来中国接连发生的一系列生产安全事故中的最新一起，也立即引起了中国最高领导层的回应。

President Xi Jinping of China issued a statement urging “all-out efforts” to rescue trapped survivors, uncover the fire’s cause and “hold those responsible accountable,” according to China’s state broadcaster, CCTV.

据中国官方电视台中央电视台报道，中国国家主席习近平作出指示，要求“全力”做好人员搜救，查明事故原因，并“严肃追责”。

Mr. Xi’s decision to quickly and personally issue the statement was significant. The Chinese government often keeps back details of accidents while it gathers information and prepares to issue a response. A statement by the leadership is often meant also as a signal to the authorities to commit resources to respond to the disaster.

习近平迅速亲自作出指示的举动意义重大。中国政府通常会在收集信息、准备好回应口径之前，不会立即披露事故的细节。最高领导人作出指示，往往同时也是向有关部门发出的信号，要求调拨资源全力应对灾情。

The fire broke out at noon local time at the factory in Jinjiang, a city in the province of Fujian that is colloquially called China’s shoe capital. There were 239 people at the scene, and 213 of them were evacuated from the site, the state news agency Xinhua reported.Video from Chinese state news media showed flames coming from the building’s top-floor windows and huge plumes of smoke over the multi-story complex. At least a dozen people appeared to be trapped on the roof. By around 5 p.m., the fire was mostly extinguished, according to The Beijing News, a Communist Party-controlled newspaper.

火灾于当地时间正午时分发生在福建晋江市的一家工厂。晋江素有“中国鞋都”之称。据中国官方通讯社新华社报道，事发时现场共有239人，其中213人已疏散撤离。中国官方媒体发布的画面显示，火焰从大楼顶层窗口窜出，滚滚浓烟笼罩着这栋大楼。至少有十余人似乎被困在屋顶。据中共下属媒体《新京报》的报道，截至下午5点左右，大火已基本扑灭。

China has a long history of deadly workplace accidents, though in the past decade, the government has tightened safety regulations and reduced the number of industrial disasters. In the first quarter of 2026, workplace accidents left 3,000 people dead or missing, according to government figures.

一直以来，中国的重大生产安全事故屡见不鲜，尽管过去十年间，政府加强了安全监管，事故数量有所下降。据政府数据显示，2026年一季度，生产安全事故已造成3000人死亡或失踪。

Mr. Xi acknowledged that there have been multiple major workplace accidents in China this year, and urged the country’s regions to learn from such episodes, coordinate response efforts and maintain vigilance about worker safety, according to Xinhua.

据新华社报道，习近平指出，今年以来，中国发生多起重大生产安全事故，并呼吁各地区各有关部门要深刻汲取教训，更好统筹发展和安全，时刻绷紧安全生产这根弦。

According to CCTV, the factory where the fire broke on Thursday belonged to a company called Fujian Huiteng Shoes. The person in charge of the company has been detained, and the company’s accounts have been frozen, according to Xinhua.

据央视报道，周四发生火灾的工厂属于福建辉腾鞋业有限公司。据新华社报道，该公司负责人已被警方控制，公司账户也已被冻结。

In May, an explosion at a coal mine in northern China killed 82 people, one of the deadliest mining disasters in years. Weeks earlier, an explosion at a fireworks factory in central China killed 26 people and left dozens injured, according to state media.

今年5月，中国北方一座煤矿发生爆炸，造成82人死亡，是近年来最为惨烈的矿难之一。据官方媒体报道，在此数周前，中国中部一家烟花厂发生爆炸，造成26人死亡，数十人受伤。

And in November, a blaze that ripped through a high-rise apartment complex in Hong Kong killed at least 161 people, making it the deadliest fire in the city since 1948.

去年11月，香港一高层住宅小区发生火灾，造成至少161人死亡，成为香港自1948年以来死亡人数最多的火灾。

In theory, taking an omega-3, or fish oil, supplement makes a lot of sense.

从理论上讲，服用欧米伽-3（即鱼油）补充剂是合理的。

Omega-3 fatty acids are vital for brain health: They are used to build brain cells, keeping the cell walls flexible and enabling the neurons to sprout new connections and communicate with other cells. Numerous studies have shown that people with higher levels of omega-3s in their blood have better cognition and healthier looking brains, as well as a lower risk of developing dementia. In contrast, people with Alzheimer’s disease have been shown to have lower omega-3 levels.

欧米伽-3脂肪酸对大脑健康至关重要：它们被用来构建脑细胞，保持细胞壁的弹性，使神经元能够长出新的连接并与其他细胞交流。众多研究表明，血液中欧米伽-3水平较高的人拥有更好的认知能力和看起来更健康的大脑结构，同时患上失智症的风险也更低。相比之下，阿兹海默病患者已被证实欧米伽-3水平较低。

But there’s a catch: The vast majority of clinical trials have found that taking omega-3 supplements offers virtually no benefit for cognition or dementia symptoms.

但这里存在一个问题：绝大多数临床试验发现，服用欧米伽-3补充剂对改善认知或缓解失智症症状而言，几乎没有任何益处。

“It kind of intuitively makes sense” that neurons need fatty acids for their health, so you should take a fatty acid supplement, said Dr. Kristine Yaffe, a professor of psychiatry, neurology and epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco. “The problem is that most of the evidence, particularly the trial evidence, just doesn’t support it at all,” she said.

加利福尼亚大学旧金山分校的精神病学、神经病学和流行病学教授克里斯汀·雅菲博士表示，神经元的健康需要脂肪酸，因此应该服用脂肪酸补充剂，“这在直觉上是说得通的”。她说：“问题在于，大多数证据，尤其是试验得出的证据，根本不支持这一点。”

A study published last month offers a prime example. The scientists who ran the clinical trial tried to cover all their bases: The participants were older adults who didn’t eat a lot of fish (which is rich in omega-3s), suggesting they might benefit the most from a supplement. Roughly half of the participants had an increased genetic risk for Alzheimer’s, which is another group that experts think might need more omega-3s. The researchers even did lumbar punctures on some of the participants to confirm that the supplement caused omega-3 levels in the brain to go up.

上个月发表的一项研究就是一个典型的例子。进行该临床试验的科学家们试图面面俱到：参与者是平时不怎么吃鱼（鱼类富含欧米伽-3）的老年人，这表明他们可能最能从补充剂中受益。大约一半的参与者患阿兹海默病的遗传风险在增加，这是专家认为可能需要更多欧米伽-3的另一类人群。研究人员甚至对部分参与者进行了腰椎穿刺，以确认补充剂确实使大脑中的欧米伽-3水平有所上升。

But compared with a placebo, the supplement didn’t result in any benefit when it came to people’s cognition or brain structure.

但与安慰剂相比，该补充剂在改善认知或大脑结构方面没有带来任何益处。

So what’s behind the disconnect? Scientists have a few hypotheses, and most are connected to diet and lifestyle.

那么，这种脱节背后原因何在？科学家有几种假设，且大多数都与饮食和生活方式有关。

Hypothesis 1: Most people already get enough omega-3s.

假设一：大多数人已经摄入了足够的欧米伽-3。

There are three main types of omega-3s that are important for health: EPA and DHA, which are primarily found in fish, and ALA, which is in nuts and seeds. The liver can convert small amounts of ALA into EPA and DHA.

对健康至关重要的欧米伽-3主要有三种类型：主要存在于鱼类中的EPA和DHA，以及存在于坚果和种子中的ALA。肝脏可以将少量的ALA转化为EPA和DHA。

DHA is the most vital for cognition, and there’s a large reserve of it in our brains. According to Richard Bazinet, a professor of nutritional sciences at the University of Toronto, the amount of DHA our brains use every day is just a tiny fraction of that reserve.

DHA对认知最为关键，我们的大脑中有大量的DHA储备。多伦多大学营养科学教授理查德·巴齐内表示，我们的大脑每天消耗的DHA仅占该储备中极其微小的一部分。

Even if people don’t eat a lot of fish, Dr. Bazinet thinks they still probably get enough omega-3s through their diet, particularly from ALA, to replace the small amount of DHA the brain uses.

巴齐内认为，一个人即使不怎么吃鱼，很可能也会通过饮食（尤其是通过ALA）获取足够的欧米伽-3，来补充大脑消耗掉的少量DHA。

“We all eat a ton of” ALA, Dr. Bazinet said. And if people’s DHA intake is low, the liver can convert the ALA to DHA and send it to the brain.

“我们都会吃很多”ALA，巴齐内说。如果DHA摄入量较低，肝脏就可以将ALA转化为DHA并输送给大脑。

In Dr. Bazinet’s mind, since virtually everyone gets enough omega-3s from their diet, the brain benefits that scientists see in people who have high blood levels of DHA are probably caused by something besides omega-3s — most likely from other healthy habits that tend to come with eating a diet rich in fish.

在巴齐内看来，既然几乎每个人都能从饮食中摄入足够的欧米伽-3，那么科学家在血液DHA水平高的人群中所看到的大脑益处，可能并不是欧米伽-3本身带来的——而更可能是伴随摄入富含鱼类饮食的其他健康习惯所致。

For example, when someone has fish for dinner, they typically pair it with vegetables, not junk food. “If you’re going to have a nice tuna steak, you might have a little bit of salad,” Dr. Bazinet said. And “when you’re eating that meal, you’re not eating something else” that’s less healthy for your brain, he added.

例如，晚餐吃鱼时，人们通常会搭配蔬菜，而不是垃圾食品。巴齐内说：“如果你准备吃一盘精美的金枪鱼排，你可能会配上一点沙拉。”他补充道。而且“当你吃那一餐时，你就不会去吃其他对你的大脑健康不那么有帮助的东西了”。

Hypothesis 2: It’s how you metabolize omega-3s that really matters.

假设二：如何代谢欧米伽-3才是真正关键所在。

Dr. Hussein Yassine, a professor of neurology at the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine, thinks it is how the brain uses omega-3s that matters most.

南加州大学凯克医学院的神经学教授侯赛因·雅辛(Hussein Yassine)博士认为，大脑如何利用欧米伽-3才是最核心的问题。

In the brain, there is a molecule that breaks down and gets rid of omega-3s. Everyone has this molecule, but Dr. Yassine has found that it is more active in people with a genetic risk for Alzheimer’s. It’s possible that their brains metabolize omega-3s more quickly, depleting the levels.

在大脑中，存在一种能够分解并清除欧米伽-3的分子。每个人都有这种分子，但雅辛发现，在具有阿兹海默病遗传风险的人群中，这种分子更加活跃。他们的大脑代谢欧米伽-3的速度可能更快，从而导致迅速耗尽。

To improve brain health, Dr. Yassine, who also led the recent omega-3 supplement trial, thinks some people need not only to increase their omega-3 intake, but also to decrease the activity of that other molecule. Research is preliminary, but there’s some evidence that this molecule is affected by the gut microbiome and is less active in people who have a diet rich in plants, fiber and fermented foods. In other words, to benefit the brain, you need the nutrients from the tuna, as well as those from the salad or other healthy side dishes.

同样主持了近期这项欧米伽-3补充剂试验的雅辛认为，为了改善大脑健康，一些人不仅需要增加欧米伽-3的摄入量，还需要降低那种分子的活性。虽然研究尚处于初步阶段，但有证据表明，这种分子会受到肠道微生物组的影响，并且在饮食富含植物、纤维和发酵食品的人群中活性较低。换句话说，要让大脑获益，你既需要金枪鱼中的营养，也需要沙拉或其他健康配菜中的营养。

If someone has a poor diet “and you just give them a supplement where the only thing you change is the level of omega-3s in their blood and in their brain, our study would suggest that it’s not going to work,” Dr. Yassine said.

雅辛说，如果一个人的饮食习惯很差，“而你只是给他们提供一种补充剂，其中你唯一改变的是他们血液和脑部的欧米伽-3水平，我们的研究表明这是不会起作用的。”

Hypothesis 3: To see benefits, you need to consume large amounts of omega-3s for decades.

假设三：要想看到益处，你需要连续几十年摄入大量的欧米伽-3。

Not everyone is giving up on omega-3 supplements. Gene Bowman, an assistant professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School, thinks one reason that clinical trials tend to fail is because they only test supplements for a few years, and that may not be enough time to detect changes in the brain. When people have high blood levels of omega-3s, it’s typically because they’ve eaten foods rich in omega-3s — by some estimates three weekly servings of fish — for decades.

并非所有人都在放弃欧米伽-3补充剂。哈佛医学院神经学助理教授吉恩·鲍曼认为，临床试验往往失败的原因之一在于，它们只对补充剂进行了几年的测试，而这段时间可能不足以检测出大脑中的变化。当人们血液中含有高水平的欧米伽-3时，通常是因为他们几十年来一直食用富含欧米伽-3的食物——据某些估计，每周要吃三次鱼。

“I think the reason for the disconnect or inconsistency, one explanation could be strictly methodological,” Dr. Bowman said.

“我认为造成这种脱节或不一致的原因，有一种解释可能纯粹是方法学上的，”鲍曼说。

“So we either start much earlier and do much longer trials,” he added, “or we come up with a more powerful treatment that has a larger magnitude of effect.” For instance, omega-3s may work best when combined with other nutrients (the fish-plus-salad theory), particularly in people who have nutritional deficiencies.

他补充道：“因此，我们要么更早开始并进行更长时间的试验，要么开发出一种效果更明显的、更强效的治疗方法。”例如，当欧米伽-3与其他营养素相结合时（即鱼加沙拉理论）效果可能最好，尤其是在存在营养缺乏的人群中。

Regardless of the reason for why omega-3 supplements seem to fall short, the current research suggests it’s a balanced diet, rather than a pill, that can help keep your brain healthy. That is also likely true for heart health, another reason many people take an omega-3 supplement.

无论欧米伽-3补充剂似乎效果不佳的原因为何，目前的研究所表明的都是，通过均衡的饮食——而非吃药——才能有助于保持你的大脑健康。对于心脏健康而言情况很可能也是如此，而这也是许多人服用欧米伽-3补充剂的另一个原因。

“The best evidence, as limited as it might be, is that eating foods with omega-3s seems to be a good thing and correlates with better brain outcomes,” Dr. Bazinet said. “But taking the shortcut with the supplements” doesn’t seem to show the same benefit.

“最好的证据（尽管它可能还很有限）表明，食用含有欧米伽-3的食物似乎是一件好事，并且与更好的大脑结果相关，”巴齐内说。“但在服用补充剂走捷径这件事上”，似乎并没有表现出同样的益处。

Just two weeks ago, opening the Great American State Fair, President Trump triumphantly declared: “For the first time in 3,000 years, we are going to have peace in the Middle East.”

就在两周前，特朗普总统在“伟大的美国州博览会”开幕式上得意洋洋地宣称：“三千年来头一遭，我们将迎来中东和平。”

It was typical bravado for Mr. Trump. But the “peace” he was celebrating — the cease-fire with Iran that on Wednesday he declared “over” after less than a month — was already beginning to unravel. The result was perhaps predictable for a 14-paragraph memorandum of understanding that skirted major issues and was hastily assembled so Mr. Trump could declare he had reached a deal, any deal.

这不过是特朗普惯常的逞强之言。但他当时所庆祝的“和平”早已出现瓦解迹象。这份与伊朗达成的停火协议维持不到一个月，周三，特朗普宣布协议“终结”。对于一份只有14段内容、刻意回避重大争议问题、为了让特朗普能够邀功（只要是份协议就行）而仓促拼凑出来的谅解备忘录而言，这样的结果或许并不令人意外。

Now Mr. Trump appears to be confronting the consequences of his haste, and of his assumption, born of his time in the real estate business, that his adversary would prize economic benefits over the revolutionary ideology that has driven its politics since the 1979 Iranian revolution. That has left him facing a range of unpalatable options amid seemingly intractable sticking points over the fate of Iran’s nuclear program — to say nothing of its missile program, its support for terrorist groups and its repression of its own people.

如今，特朗普似乎正在面对自己仓促行事的后果，也不得不面对另一个错误判断——认为对手会把经济利益置于意识形态之上——所造成的结果。这种判断源于他从事房地产生意时形成的思维方式，然而，自1979年伊朗革命以来，革命意识形态一直主导着伊朗的政治。这使他在围绕伊朗核计划命运这一看似无解的僵局面前，只能在一系列棘手的选项之间左右为难——更遑论其导弹计划、对恐怖主义团体的支持，以及对本国人民的镇压等问题了。

At the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday after the two sides had exchanged strikes, he threatened major new combat operations. Those included seizing a key Iranian oil processing island and attacking the country’s infrastructure and desalination plants, which experts have said could constitute a war crime. (Mr. Trump did say he was most hesitant to hit the desalination facilities.)

周三，在土耳其安卡拉举行的北约峰会上，就在双方互相发动袭击之后，特朗普威胁要发动大规模新军事行动，包括夺取伊朗一座关键的石油加工岛，以及打击该国基础设施和海水淡化设施——专家指出，后者可能构成战争罪。（特朗普确实表示，他对打击海水淡化设施最为犹豫。）

But Mr. Trump has made such threats without following through before, and he added on Wednesday that he did not anticipate a return to full-scale war. Such a move has little domestic support, and some of Mr. Trump’s Republican allies fear the economic and political consequences less than four months before the midterm elections. No one is more aware of that calendar, or Mr. Trump’s hesitation to repeat the experience of the spring, than the Iranian leadership.

但特朗普曾多次发出此类威胁，却并未付诸行动，他周三也补充说，预计不会重返全面战争。此类举动在国内几乎得不到支持，而且他的部分共和党盟友担心，距离中期选举不到四个月之际，这样做将带来经济和政治层面的严重后果。而伊朗领导层比谁都清楚这个时间节点的重要性，以及特朗普对重蹈春季覆辙的犹豫。

The president could instead reimpose the American blockade of Iranian ports, an attempt to cut off the country’s economic lifeline. But that would require a continued, intense American presence in the region, and while Mr. Trump contended in April that it would lead to Iranian economic collapse, his earlier imposition of it did not.

总统也可以选择重新对伊朗港口实施美国封锁，试图切断伊朗经济赖以生存的命脉。但这意味着美国必须继续在该地区维持高强度军事存在。而且，尽管特朗普今年4月曾声称此举将导致伊朗经济崩溃，但他此前的封锁行动并未取得这样的效果。

Or he could elect to live in a world of neither war nor peace, an era of episodic skirmishes in the Persian Gulf, punctuated by periodic negotiations, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil-shipping route, greatly reduced from the 130 or so ships that passed through each day before the war. The energy markets would most likely adjust; to some degree they already have.

他也可以选择一个不战不和的局面——波斯湾零星冲突不断，间歇穿插着周期性谈判，而作为全球重要石油运输通道的霍尔木兹海峡，每天通行船只的数量将远低于战前约130艘的水平。能源市场或许终将适应这一局面；某种程度上，它们已经开始适应了。

But for a president who promised a quick, cost-free confrontation with an old adversary — “four to six weeks” was the White House prediction in the opening weeks — an ongoing conflict would amount to near-total failure on the mission he initially set out upon. And the price would be staggering: The Pentagon has already asked Congress for about $70 billion to cover the early operations around Iran, and the cost rises every week.

然而，对于一位曾承诺将以“快速、低成本”的方式解决这个长期对手的总统来说——白宫在战争初期曾预测，“四到六周”便可结束行动——如果冲突持续下去，那几乎意味着他最初设定的目标彻底失败。而代价将极其惊人：美国国防部已经要求国会拨款约700亿美元，用于支付围绕伊朗展开的初期军事行动费用，而且这一成本每周都在持续攀升。

今年早些时候，霍尔木兹海峡上的船只。伊朗持续将这条关键石油运输航道的通行权作为施压筹码。

“The problem is that all the options — endure, escalate or agree — are unattractive in different ways,” Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security and a former aide to Senator John McCain, said on Wednesday. “The likeliest outcome is a continuing series of low-level, tit-for-tat attacks, followed by frantic diplomacy by mediators, the emergence of a new and fragile cease-fire, and then probably another round of strikes.

“问题在于，所有选项——忍耐、升级或妥协——各有各的不可接受之处，”新美国安全中心首席执行官、约翰·麦凯恩参议员的前助手理查德·方丹周三说。“最可能出现的结果是：新一轮低强度的相互打击持续发生，随后是调停方展开紧张的外交斡旋，促成一项新的、脆弱的停火协议，之后很可能又是新一轮军事打击。”

Mr. Fontaine added: “It will be a long oscillation between cold war and low-level hot war.”

方丹补充说：“这将是一场在冷战与低强度热战之间长期摇摆的过程。”

Many of the problems Mr. Trump is facing today were exacerbated by the cease-fire deal itself. It left unresolved, for a later negotiation that Mr. Trump now says he has little interest in pursuing, the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel, the most prominent among the administration’s shifting reasons for attacking Iran on Feb. 28.

特朗普今天面临的诸多问题在很大程度上是被那份停火协议本身所激化的。协议把伊朗接近武器级浓缩铀库存的最终处置问题留待未来谈判解决，而特朗普现在表示，他已经几乎没有兴趣继续推进这些谈判。事实上，这些接近武器级的核燃料库存正是特朗普政府在2月28日攻击伊朗时不断变换的各种理由中最重要的一项。

The agreement appeared to hand Iran at least some control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the superweapon that Tehran, and specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, has skillfully manipulated to drive up oil prices, and now has used to justify attacks on tankers and cargo ships not hewing to its new rules.

该协议似乎将霍尔木兹海峡的通行控制权至少部分移交给了伊朗——而这正是德黑兰，尤其是伊斯兰革命卫队所掌握的超级筹码，他们已娴熟地运用这张牌推高油价，如今又以此为由，攻击不遵守其新规的油轮和货船。

“What we’re seeing now is Iran, and more specifically the I.R.G.C., trying to exert control over the strait and declaring that this control is their sovereign right,” said Kevin Donegan, a retired Navy vice admiral who served as a Navy commander in the Middle East. “That’s the main card they have to play, and as a result we can expect they will continue to try to disrupt any ship traffic that uses routes different from the ones they have published.”

“我们现在看到的是伊朗，更具体地说是革命卫队，试图对海峡实施管控，并宣称这种管控是其主权权利，”曾担任美国海军中东司令的退役海军中将凯文·多尼根说。“这是他们手中的王牌，因此我们可以预料，他们会继续试图扰乱任何不按他们公布的路线航行的船只。”

The deal was silent on Iran’s missile arsenal, the key issue for Israel. And it depended on a cease-fire in Lebanon, though the parties to that conflict, Israel and Hezbollah, were not signatories of the agreement. And it set an unrealistic deadline, 60 days, to deal diplomatically with those and other issues that months of active combat had failed to resolve.

协议对伊朗的导弹武库——以色列的关键关切——只字未提。它还以黎巴嫩的停火为前提，尽管冲突双方以色列和真主党并非该协议的签署方。协议还设定了一个不切实际的60天期限，通过外交途径解决这些经过数月激战都未能得到解决的问题。

There are, of course, many more turns ahead in this drama. Mr. Trump threatened again on Wednesday to try to seize Kharg Island, where giant tankers collect Iran’s oil and head to world markets. He may seek to seize the 60 percent enriched nuclear material deep underground at Isfahan, a mission for which Special Operations forces have trained extensively, though he dismissed the need for it on Wednesday.

当然，这场大戏未来还会有更多转折。特朗普周三再次威胁，要设法夺取哈尔克岛。那里是大型油轮装载伊朗原油后驶向国际市场的重要枢纽。他也可能寻求夺取深埋于伊斯法罕地下、浓缩度达到60%的核材料。美国特种作战部队长期以来一直针对这一任务进行训练，不过特朗普周三却否认了采取这一行动的必要性。

“We’ve already got the nuclear material, because it’s so far underground,” he said, noting that the Iranians do not have the heavy equipment needed to unearth it.

“我们已经控制了那些核材料，因为它们深埋地下，”他说，并指出伊朗方面没有将其挖出的重型设备。

If Mr. Trump is right about that, and many nuclear experts agree that the material would be enormously difficult to recover, it raises a fundamental question: If the nuclear fuel was successfully buried in the June 2025 American bombing of three major nuclear sites, why did he go to war to begin with? His statement on Wednesday, a repeat of comments he has made several times in recent months, undercuts the argument he made in the days after the initial attack in February that there was an “imminent” threat.

如果特朗普此言不虚——许多核专家也认同取出这些材料极其困难——那就引出了一个根本性问题：如果核燃料在2025年6月美国对三处主要核设施的空袭中已被成功掩埋，那他当初为何还要发动这场战争？他周三的表态与他2月最初袭击后声称存在“迫在眉睫”威胁的论点自相矛盾，而类似说法他在近几个月已重复过多次。

That initial justification has been overtaken by subsequent contradictions. Mr. Trump has periodically praised the new Iranian leadership, and even its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain ayatollah, as more “reasonable.” He has said many times that, unlike their predecessors, the new leaders would open up the strait and dilute the nuclear stockpile because it will be in their economic interest.

那个最初的开战理由此后已被一系列自相矛盾的说法所取代。特朗普曾多次称赞伊朗新领导层，甚至其新任最高领袖——被击毙的哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，称其更为“理性”。他多次表示，与前任不同，新领导层会开放海峡、稀释核库存，因为这符合其经济利益。

Vice President JD Vance sounded exactly that note last month, when he was signing the memorandum of understanding in Switzerland.

上个月，美国副总统万斯在瑞士签署这份谅解备忘录时，也表达了几乎完全相同的观点。

“The coolest thing about the progress we’ve made over the last few weeks is that you see people within the Iranian system, senior leadership, even I.R.G.C. officials say, ‘You know what, we may have some animosity, we may have some mistrust, but we recognize the way that we’ve done business with the United States for 47 years is a mistake,’” he said.

他说：“过去几周取得的进展中，最令人振奋的一点是，你会看到伊朗体制内部的人、高层领导人，甚至革命卫队官员都开始说：‘你知道吗？我们或许心存芥蒂，或许彼此不信任，但我们已经意识到，过去47年来与美国打交道的方式是错误的。’”

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump had a different word for those leaders: “scum.”

周三，特朗普用了一个截然不同的词来形容这些领导人——“人渣”。

“They are sick people. They’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people,” he said, adding: “As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them.”

他说，“他们是病态的人。他们被病态的人领导，他们凶残、暴力，”他还补充道：“在我看来，跟他们打交道纯粹是在浪费时间。”

The global economy is set to slow sharply in 2026 after the war with Iran disrupted energy supply chains and triggered a fresh bout of inflation, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.

国际货币基金组织周三警告称，在与伊朗的战争扰乱了能源供应链并引发新一轮通货膨胀之后，全球经济将在2026年大幅放缓。

The forecasts reflect the damaging toll from the decision by the United States and Israel to attack Iran this year. Those attacks spurred Iranian retaliation on energy infrastructure in the region, destabilizing a world economy that had already been rocked by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

该预测反映了今年美国和以色列决定袭击伊朗所造成的破坏性代价。袭击促使伊朗对该地区的能源基础设施实施报复，令已因新冠大流行和俄罗斯在乌克兰战争而动荡不安的世界经济进一步陷入不稳定。

Global output growth is poised to fall to 3 percent in 2026 from 3.5 percent last year, according to an update for the I.M.F.’s World Economic Outlook. That is slightly slower than the fund’s April projection of 3.1 percent growth, underscoring the protracted nature of the conflict.

根据国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》的最新报告，2026年全球产出增长率将从去年的3.5%降至3%。这略低于该基金组织4月份预测的3.1%的增长率，凸显了冲突的长期性。

The forecasts remain subject to considerable uncertainty. Attacks on tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week have raised doubts about the durability of the recent cease-fire between the United States and Iran, and on Tuesday the United States rescinded a waiver on sanctions that would have allowed more Iranian oil to be sold on global markets.

该预测仍存在相当大的不确定性。本周伊朗袭击试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，令人们开始怀疑最近美伊停火协议的持久性；周二，美国取消了一项原本将允许更多伊朗石油在全球市场销售的制裁豁免。

President Trump cast doubt on the truce at a NATO meeting in Turkey on Wednesday when he said, “I think it’s over.”

周三，特朗普总统在土耳其举行的北约会议上对休战表示怀疑，他说：“我认为这已经结束了。”

Shipping traffic through the strait was obstructed for months, sending energy prices higher and pushing up consumer prices around the world. The I.M.F. expects global inflation will rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 from 4.1 percent in 2025 because of elevated commodity prices.

该海峡的航运交通受阻长达数月，导致能源价格上涨，并推高全球消费者物价。国际货币基金组织预计，由于大宗商品价格高企，全球通胀率将从2025年的4.1%升至2026年的4.7%。

Although the 2026 outlook is slightly darker, the I.M.F. said the global economy was proving to be relatively resilient. Global growth in the first quarter of the year was stronger than projected, as renewable energy helped blunt the effect of higher oil prices and investments in artificial intelligence powered output.

尽管2026年前景略显黯淡，但国际货币基金组织表示，全球经济正展现出相对较强的韧性。由于可再生能源帮助减弱了高油价的影响，以及对人工智能的投资推动了产出增长，今年第一季度的全球增长强于预期。

“The global economy as a whole has, so far, weathered the shock from the war better than feared,” the I.M.F. economists wrote in the report.

“到目前为止，整体全球经济抵御战争冲击的表现好于预期，”国际货币基金组织的经济学家在报告中写道。

Oil-producing countries in the Middle East have been hit hardest by the war and are expected to face sharp contractions this year.

中东的产油国受战争打击最为严重，预计今年将面临大幅经济收缩。

The outlook for Iran, however, was modestly upgraded since April as U.S. sanctions on its oil exports were temporarily relaxed. This week, the Trump administration revoked a 60-day license allowing the sale of Iranian energy products after tankers were attacked trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

然而，随着美国对其石油出口的制裁暂时放松，伊朗的前景自4月份以来略有上调。本周，在试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮遭到袭击后，特朗普政府撤销了允许销售伊朗能源产品的60天许可。

Nations that consume the most energy are also facing an output crunch from higher oil prices. Growth in India is expected to decline to 6.4 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2025. Output in China is projected to decline to 4.6 percent in 2026 from 5 percent last year.

消耗能源最多的国家也面临着高油价带来的产出紧缩。印度的增长率预计将从2025年的7.7%降至今年的6.4%。中国的经济增速预计将从去年的5%降至2026年的4.6%。

Output projections in the United States held steady from April at 2.3 percent, as oil exports and technology investments buttressed growth.

美国的经济增速预测与4月份持平，为2.3%，原因是石油出口和科技投资支撑了增长。

High gas prices have been a political concern in the United States, but Kevin M. Warsh, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, said last week that inflation risks had eased in the weeks since he took over. Speaking at a gathering in Europe last week, he reiterated his pledge to deliver price stability after an extended period in which the central bank had missed its 2 percent target.

高昂的汽油价格一直是美国的政治关切，但美联储新任主席凯文·沃什上周表示，自他上任以来的几周内，通胀风险有所缓解。上周在欧洲一次集会上发表讲话时，他重申了实现物价稳定的承诺——此前美联储在相当长一段时间内未能达到2%的通胀目标。

The I.M.F. urged policymakers to remain focused on price stability as they assess the effect of volatile commodity prices and growing demand for new A.I. technology.

国际货币基金组织敦促政策制定者在评估波动的大宗商品价格和对新型人工智能技术不断增长的需求所带来的影响时，继续将物价稳定作为重点。

On the day that China announced that it had successfully fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia was in Suva, the capital of Fiji.

就在中国宣布成功向太平洋中部发射一枚潜射弹道导弹的当天，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯正在斐济首都苏瓦。

Mr. Albanese was visiting the country on Monday to sign two long-sought security agreements with Fiji’s leader, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka. A week earlier, he was smiling and shaking hands with the prime minister of Vanuatu, having finalized a treaty with that island nation. The following day, he was in the Solomon Islands, standing shoulder to shoulder with its new leader and announcing aid for education and policing.

阿尔巴尼斯总理周一访问该国，与斐济总理西蒂维尼·兰布卡签署了两项期待已久的安全协议。一周前，他还微笑着与瓦努阿图总理握手，与这个岛国达成一项条约。次日，他出现在所罗门群岛，与该国新领导人并肩而立，宣布提供教育和警务援助。

The diplomatic blitz from the Australian leader is just the latest in what’s been a yearslong push to win over the island nations of the Pacific, by way of development assistance and smiling photo ops but also in securing legally binding mutual defense treaties and alliances.

阿尔巴尼斯这一连串密集的外交行动只是澳大利亚近年来持续争取太平洋岛国的最新举措。除了提供发展援助、安排微笑合影，澳大利亚还积极推动签署具有法律约束力的共同防御条约和联盟协议。

Driving Australia’s efforts is what its foreign minister, Penny Wong, has termed a “permanent contest” for the Pacific region with an increasingly emboldened China.

推动澳大利亚这一系列努力的正是该国外长黄英贤所说的:与日益强势的中国围绕太平洋地区展开的一场“持久竞争”。

The region’s 14 sovereign states, many of which are remote and small in size and population but also encompass large swaths of exclusive economic zones in the Pacific Ocean, have been the focal point of heated geopolitical rivalry because of their strategic location. Many of the islands played key roles in the fighting during World War II, and have been the site of consequential weapons testing. They are also positioned near key shipping lanes ferrying international cargo, while the ocean floor holds valuable minerals, drawing massive commercial interest in deep-sea mining.

太平洋地区共有14个主权国家。虽然其中许多国家偏处一隅，国土和人口规模都很小，但在太平洋拥有广阔的专属经济区，所以因战略位置重要而成为激烈地缘政治角力的焦点。许多岛屿曾在第二次世界大战期间发挥关键作用，也曾是重要武器试验的地点。此外，它们毗邻国际货运的重要航道，同时海底蕴藏着宝贵的矿产资源，吸引了对深海采矿的巨大商业兴趣。

Here is how the jostling for influence in the region has been playing out:

以下是各方争夺该地区影响力的博弈态势：

Australia Redoubling Ties With Pacific Neighbors

澳大利亚加强与太平洋邻国的关系

Australia historically had close ties to island nations in the South Pacific, having been former colonial administrators to some and a founding member of the Pacific Islands Forum, the region’s most important multilateral organization.

澳大利亚与南太平洋岛国历来关系密切：它曾是其中一些国家的殖民管理者，也是该地区最重要的多边组织——太平洋岛国论坛的创始成员。

China’s interest in the region snapped into focus in 2018 when reports emerged that it was seeking to establish a military base in Vanuatu. In the years leading up to 2018, Beijing had steeply increased aid and investment into countries in the region, many of which are impoverished and vulnerable to natural disasters.

中国对该地区的兴趣在2018年曾引起广泛关注。当时有报道称，北京正寻求在瓦努阿图建立军事基地。在2018年之前的几年里，中国已大幅增加了对该地区国家的援助和投资，其中许多国家经济贫困，也容易受到自然灾害影响。

In 2022, a leaked draft of a security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands prompted concerns that the deal would open the door to Chinese security forces being deployed to the region. That year, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, traveled to several Pacific island countries trying to round up support — unsuccessfully — for a sweeping regional deal that would have expanded Beijing’s role in policing, maritime cooperation and cybersecurity.

2022年，中国与所罗门群岛安全协议草案泄露，引发外界担忧，认为该协议可能为中国安全部队部署到该地区打开大门。同年，中国外长王毅访问多个太平洋岛国，试图争取各国支持一项覆盖整个地区的广泛协议，希望扩大中国在警务、海洋合作和网络安全等领域的作用，但最终未能成功。

In the years since, Australia has rapidly dialed up efforts to reinforce ties with the Pacific and present itself as the more desirable partner in both economic development and security. Many of the countries do not have their own militaries and have struggled with policing resources in moments of crisis, such as large-scale unrest in the Solomon Islands in 2021.

此后几年，澳大利亚迅速加大力度，强化与太平洋岛国的联系，并努力把自己塑造成在经济发展和安全领域都比中国更具吸引力的合作伙伴。许多岛国没有自己的军队，在危机时刻也缺乏足够的警力，例如2021年所罗门群岛爆发大规模骚乱期间就是如此。

In the past two years, Australia has signed treaties with Nauru and Vanuatu and entered into alliances with Papua New Guinea and Fiji. Australia and Fiji also announced an “Ocean of Peace Alliance” in addition to their bilateral agreement, opening the door for other countries to join a regional bloc.

过去两年，澳大利亚与瑙鲁和瓦努阿图签署了条约，并与巴布亚新几内亚和斐济结成了联盟。澳大利亚和斐济还在双边协议基础上宣布了“和平海洋联盟”，并为其他国家加入这一区域集团预留了空间。

Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, said a Chinese military outpost anywhere in the Pacific would be unacceptable for Australia because it would bring the reach of Beijing’s growing military forces much closer to its shores.

洛伊研究所国际安全项目主任萨姆·罗格文表示，中国在太平洋任何地方建立军事据点对澳大利亚而言都不可接受，因为这将使北京不断扩张的军事力量更接近澳大利亚本土。

“The most significant part of all of these agreements is that they attempt to make it if not impossible, much more difficult for China to establish a permanent military presence,” he said.

“所有这些协议最重要的意义在于，它们试图限制中国建立永久性军事力量——即使不能完全杜绝，也会使其难度大增，”他说。

China Doing ‘What Great Powers Do’

中国正在做“大国会做的事”

China, for its part, has always maintained its intentions were only to cooperate with the Pacific island nations as equals and has denied interest in establishing a base. A Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said this week the contest was in Australia’s imagination: “We do not engage in geopolitical rivalry or seek selfish political gains,” she said when asked about the agreement with Fiji.

中国方面则始终坚称，其目的是以平等伙伴的身份与太平洋岛国开展合作，并否认有兴趣建立军事基地。中国外交部发言人毛宁本周表示，所谓竞争不过是澳大利亚的臆想。当被问及澳大利亚与斐济签署协议时，她说：“我们不搞地缘博弈，不谋求政治私利。”

Some leaders of Pacific island nations in the past have welcomed the competition, an approach that has been described as “friends to all, enemies to none” which could be leveraged to attract assistance and investment to a region in need.

一些太平洋岛国领导人过去曾对这种竞争持欢迎态度，将其描述为一种“广交朋友、不树敌手”的策略，可借此吸引这个亟需发展的地区获得更多援助与投资。

James Batley, a fellow at the Australian National University and a former Australian diplomat who has served in various Pacific island nations, said over time, the countries may have come to see the limits of that balance, as China has made aggressive diplomatic pushes and flexed its military might with two ballistic missile tests in the region.

澳大利亚国立大学研究员、曾在多个太平洋岛国任职的前澳大利亚外交官詹姆斯·巴特利表示，随着时间的推移，随着中国持续发动强势外交攻势，并在该地区进行了两次弹道导弹试验以展示军事实力，这些国家可能已经看到了这种平衡策略的局限性。

“They are paying a price for fostering a sense of competition; they can’t just quarantine themselves from the impacts of that,” Mr. Batley said.

“它们为培育竞争氛围付出了代价；没有任何国家能把自己完全隔绝在这种竞争影响之外，”巴特利说。

The latest missile test may have helped cement support for Australia’s push in the region, Oliver Nobetau, Pacific islands program director at the Lowy Institute, wrote in an analysis.

洛伊研究所太平洋岛屿项目主任奥利弗·诺贝托在一篇分析中写道，最近的导弹试验可能有助于巩固太平洋岛国对澳大利亚地区战略的支持。

中国官方媒体发布的一张照片显示，周一中国潜艇试射了一枚远程弹道导弹。

“A missile test makes Pacific countries spectators in their own region, much like they were during the Second World War. Albanese’s opening is to offer something different,” he wrote.

“导弹试验让太平洋国家在自己的地区沦为旁观者，就像第二次世界大战期间一样。阿尔巴尼斯提供的是一种不同的选择，”他写道。

Ms. Wong, Australia’s foreign minister, said this week that “China will continue to do what great powers do. It will continue to assert its interests.” Countries in the region must band together to protect theirs, she said.

澳大利亚外长黄英贤本周表示：“中国将继续做所有大国会做的事，它将继续坚持自己的利益。”她说，该地区国家必须团结起来，维护自身利益。

Prime Minister Matthew Wale of the Solomon Islands had a simpler request: no more missile tests.

所罗门群岛总理马修·威尔提出了一个更简单的要求：不要再进行导弹试验。

“We don’t want to see any more countries, China, America, anybody, we don’t want anybody testing the ICBMs in the Pacific islands region,” he said on Tuesday. “That’s the bottom line. Be our friend, but don’t threaten us.”

“我们不希望再看到任何国家——中国、美国，还是其他任何国家——我们不希望任何人在太平洋岛国地区试射洲际弹道导弹，”他周二说。“这是底线。做我们的朋友，但不要威胁我们。”

Long before air-conditioning, people around the world came up with ingenious ways to beat the heat. But, really — wear dark, billowing robes? And drink tea?

空调问世之前很久，世界各地的人们就想出了各种巧妙的方法来防暑降温。不过，真的吗？穿深色的宽松长袍？还有喝茶？

The science can be surprising. As big chunks of the United States and Canada roast through the weekend, some of these ideas might be worth a closer look.

这其中的科学原理有时会出人意料。随着美国和加拿大的大部分地区在周末饱受酷暑煎熬，其中一部分想法可能值得我们仔细研究一番。

Water That Sidewalk

给人行道洒点水

In Japan’s sweltering summer months, you might see storekeepers with a bucket of cold water, dousing hot pavement outside their stores.

在日本，闷热的夏季日子里，你可能会看到店主提着一桶冷水，泼洒在店外滚烫的柏油路面上。

The practice, called uchimizu, grew out of Japan’s tea ceremony tradition. It was originally a purifying ritual and an act of welcome for guests. But uchimizu also has an effect on temperature thanks to what’s known as evaporative cooling — when water evaporates, it pulls heat out of the hot ground.

这种被称为“泼水”(uchimizu)的做法源于日本的茶道传统。它最初是一种净化仪式，也是对客人表示欢迎的举动。但由于所谓的蒸发冷却效应，泼水对温度也会产生影响——当水蒸发时，会从滚烫的地面上带走热量。

A 2018 study in the journal Water found that uchimizu caused air temperatures to drop by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit near the ground, even with small amounts of water.

2018年发表在《水》(Water)期刊上的一项研究发现，泼水能使靠近地面的气温下降多达约5.5摄氏度，即使水量很少也能见效。

According to Shigenori Asai, director of the Japan Water Forum, the more neighbors join in and douse the pavement, the more effective it is. “You might even feel a cooling breeze,” he said. His group is sponsoring a global Uchimizu Day on Aug. 1.

据日本水论坛主任浅井重范（音）介绍，参与泼水的邻居越多，人行道上的泼水范围越广，效果就越好。“你甚至可能会感觉到一阵凉爽的微风，”他说。他的团队正在赞助8月1日的全球“Uchimizu日”。

Hang Screens of Fragrant Grass

挂上香草帘

Before air-conditioning, people in some of the hottest parts of India survived intense heat waves by weaving screens made from the spongy roots of a sorghumlike grass called vetiver.

在空调问世之前，在印度一些最热的地区，居民会用一种名为香根草、类似高粱的植物的绵软根部编织成帘子，以此抵御酷暑。

The screens are kept wet and hung over doors and windows facing the wind for another version of evaporative cooling. Hot air blowing through is stripped of some of its heat. The grasses also smell good.

这些帘子被保持湿润，悬挂在迎风的门窗上，这是另一种形式的蒸发冷却。吹过的热空气会因此被带走部分热量。这种草还会散发香气。

The process works so well, especially in dry environments, that some modern data centers are turning to a variation of this idea called indirect evaporative cooling.

这个方法非常有效，尤其是在干燥的环境中，就连一些现代数据中心也开始采用这种理念的一种变化形式——间接蒸发冷却。

If old-fashioned technologies like this can make a dent in the expected surge in air-conditioning use in India and other countries, that would bring great benefits, said Liza Raju Subhadra, an architect in Kerala, India, who works with alternative materials.

在印度喀拉拉邦从事替代材料研究的建筑师莉扎·拉朱·苏巴德拉说，如果这样的传统技术能够缓解印度及其他国家预计出现激增的空调使用量，那将带来巨大的好处。

“It’s not just energy-intensive — when a neighbor uses an air-conditioner, the hot air gets passed onto me,” she said. “It makes a big difference if we can passively cool our homes.”

“空调不仅耗能巨大——而且当邻居使用时，热空气还会传给我，”她说。“如果我们能通过被动方式为房屋降温，那将带来很大的改变。”

Wear Dark, Flowing Robes (or Seersucker)

穿深色的宽松长袍（或泡泡纱）

It may seem counterintuitive to wear heavy, dark clothing in the desert, but communities in the Middle East and North Africa have done so for centuries.

在沙漠中身穿厚重的深色衣服似乎有违直觉，但中东和北非的社区几个世纪以来一直是这样做的。

A study published in Nature in 1980 found that dark robes can indeed create a cooling effect when worn in loosefitting ways. The robe absorbs heat and warms the air inside the garment, but as that hot air expands and rises rapidly, it escapes through the top. The upward flow acts like a pump, drawing cooler air from the bottom of the robe.

1980年发表在《自然》杂志上的一项研究发现，身穿宽松的深色长袍确实可以产生降温效果。长袍吸收热量，并使衣服内部的空气变暖，但随着这些热空气膨胀并迅速上升，它会从顶部逸出。向上的气流就像一个泵，从长袍底部吸入较为凉爽的空气。

几个世纪以来，贝都因人一直穿着深色衣服。

“The additional heat absorbed by the black robe was lost before it reached the skin,” the authors concluded.

 “黑袍吸收的额外热量在到达皮肤之前就散失了，”作者总结道。

For a different look, try seersucker. In the hot, humid summers of the American South, linen and seersucker, the thin, puckered cotton fabric, are staples.

如果想要一种不同的装扮，可以试试泡泡纱。在美国南部炎热潮湿的夏天，亚麻和泡泡纱（一种轻薄、起皱的棉织物）是常备的主打衣物。

Seersucker is woven in a way that causes some threads to bunch together, giving the fabric its distinct wrinkled texture. That prevents it from flattening and sticking to sweaty skin. It also creates tiny pockets that aid air circulation and cooling.

泡泡纱的编织方式会使一些线束聚集在一起，赋予织物独特的起皱纹理。这可以防止衣物变平、粘在出汗的皮肤上。它还能形成微小的气囊，有助于空气流通和降温。

Eat Spicy Food, Drink Tea

吃辣、喝茶

It might also seem counterintuitive to eat spicy food during a heat wave. But chili peppers contain a chemical compound, capsaicin, that binds to receptors on the tongue that detect heat and pain.

在热浪来袭时吃辛辣食物似乎也有违直觉。但辣椒含有一种叫做辣椒素的化合物，能与舌头上感知热量和疼痛的受体结合。

This tricks the brain into thinking the body is overheating, creating a cooling reflex. Blood vessels dilate to flush heat to the skin, and sweat glands open to cool the body rapidly via evaporation.

这会欺骗大脑，让它误以为身体过热，从而产生降温反射。血管扩张，将热量导向皮肤，汗腺张开，通过蒸发迅速为身体降温。

It’s one reason that many hot places, such as India, Thailand and Mexico, have spicy cuisines.

许多炎热的地方（如印度、泰国和墨西哥）都有辛辣美食，这也是原因之一。

Drinking an ice-cold, sugary soda, on the other hand, can have the opposite effect. It makes the brain lower natural sweat reflexes in response to the intake of cold liquid. And the body has to work to break down the sugar, generating internal heat.

另一方面，喝冰镇的含糖汽水可能会产生相反效果。当摄入冷饮时，大脑会降低自然的出汗反射。而且，身体必须消耗能量来分解糖分，从而产生体内热量。

In parts of Asia, people instead drink slightly chilled, unsweetened teas steeped from plants like barley. They hydrate and can also improve blood flow, allowing it to circulate near the skin to release heat.

在亚洲部分地区，人们饮用略加冰镇、不含糖的茶，这些茶是用大麦等植物冲泡而成。它们可以补充水分，还能促进血液循环，使血液流向皮肤表面，以便散热。

What about a cold beer, you ask? It is tempting, but alcohol can cause dehydration and make it harder for the body to regulate its internal temperature.

你可能会问，喝杯冰啤酒怎么样？这很诱人，但酒精会导致脱水，并使身体更难调节其内部温度。

西班牙托莱多的一座公园。在西班牙、意大利和希腊等国，午睡曾是一种更为普遍的现象。

Take a Siesta

午休

Siestas, the midday breaks once more common in Southern European nations like Greece, Spain and Italy, have reportedly been on a decline.

据报道，午休这种在希腊、西班牙和意大利等南欧国家曾经十分普遍的休息习惯，如今已经逐渐减少。

That’s a shame, some experts say. The human body generates heat simply by moving around and processing energy. Engaging in physical labor during especially high temperatures can cause heat exhaustion.

一些专家认为，这很遗憾。人体仅通过活动和能量代谢就足以产生热量。在气温特别高时从事体力劳动会导致热衰竭。

In recent years, as Europe has grappled with increasingly scorching summers, officials in countries including Germany have started extolling the virtues of a midday break.

近年来，随着欧洲努力应对日益炎热的夏季，包括德国在内，一些国家的官员开始大力宣传午休的好处。

“We should follow the work practices of southern countries during heat,” Johannes Niessen, then the chairman of Germany’s leading national association of doctors, told the news outlet RND in 2023.

“在酷热天气下，我们应该效仿南方国家的工作方式，”时任德国主要全国医生协会主席约翰内斯·尼森在2023年对新闻机构RND表示。

Do you know how to get an American company to grant you excellent wages and amazing benefits, even for an entry-level job?

你知道如何让一家美国公司批准给你极其优厚的薪酬和令人惊叹的福利吗，哪怕是一份入门级的工作？

Move to Norway and take the job there.

搬到挪威并在那里接下这份工作。

Construction workers, hotel maids, gas station attendants and store cashiers will typically earn more than $20 an hour plus evening or weekend bonuses, about five weeks’ paid vacation each year, a pension, maternity and paternity leave that add up to a year and paid leave when a child is sick. You may even get paid time off if you move to a new home.

建筑工人、酒店清洁工、加油站服务员和商店收销员的时薪通常都超过20美元，此外还享有夜间或周末加班津贴、每年约五周的带薪假期、一份养老金、累计可达一年的产假与陪产假，以及孩子生病时的带薪假期。甚至搬个家可能还能获得带薪假期。

Those are broadly the terms for Norwegian and foreign companies alike, including the likes of 7-Eleven shops, Burger King restaurants and ExxonMobil-affiliated gas stations. Which raises the question: If American and other international firms can offer such munificent terms for retail jobs in Norway, could they do so in our country?

这些条款大致上对挪威本土及外国公司都是一样的，包括7-Eleven便利店、汉堡王餐厅以及美孚旗下的加油站。这就提出了一个问题：如果美国和其他国际企业能在挪威为零售业职位提供如此慷慨的条件，他们能否也能在我们国家这样做呢？

We’ll get to that, but what unfolds here is a result of the Nordic social and economic model, which aims to reduce inequality, boost opportunity and optimize the quality of life — providing a lift, in particular, for those at the lower end of the income scale. What we tend to think of as “low wage” jobs aren’t truly low-earning in Norway, and they also come with state-provided health care and child care, plus strong unions that ensure that layoffs or firings are rare.

我们稍后会探讨这个问题，但在挪威所展现的一切实际上是北欧社会与经济模式运作的结果，该模式旨在缩小不平等、扩大机遇并优化生活质量——特别是为那些处于收入底层的人群提供支撑。我们通常认为是“低薪”的工作，在挪威绝非真正意义上的低收入，并且这些工作还伴随着国家提供的医疗和托育保障，以及确保极少发生裁员或解雇的强大工会。

You want security, health care and the American dream? Look to Scandinavia.

想要安全感、医疗保障以及美国梦？不妨把目光投向斯堪的纳维亚。

“We actually live the American dream,” Jens Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway who is now the finance minister, told me. “The American dream, it’s more reality in the Nordic countries than in America.”

“事实上，我们才生活在美国梦之中，”曾任挪威首相、现任财政部长的延斯·斯托尔滕贝格对我说。“美国梦在北欧国家比在美国本土更接近现实。”

Skeptics have argued that generous welfare benefits and the resulting high taxes have held back the Nordic economies. Perhaps a bit. “Farewell, Nordic model,” The Economist wrote in 2006. But Norway is now richer than the United States per capita, and Norwegian workers are more productive than American workers, with higher output per hour. Scandinavians live longer than Americans, and people are happier. The five Nordic countries — Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden — all rank among the six happiest countries in the world in the World Happiness Report, based on Gallup polling.

质疑者曾辩称，慷慨的福利和随之而来的高税收阻碍了北欧经济的发展。或许有那么一点。“再见，北欧模式，”《经济学人》曾在2006年写道。但如今，挪威的人均财富已超越美国，且挪威工人的劳动生产率也高于美国工人，每小时的产出更高。斯堪的纳维亚人比美国人更长寿，也更幸福。根据基于盖洛普民意调查的《世界幸福报告》，北欧五国——丹麦、芬兰、冰岛、挪威和瑞典——全部位列全球最幸福的前六个国家之列。

Yet the Nordic countries are themselves facing significant challenges, including fiscal pressures, immigration, widening inequality and perhaps some breakdown in the social consensus. Some doubt whether the model can survive here, let alone be exported to countries that are larger, less homogeneous and more suspicious of taxation.

然而，北欧国家自身也正面临着重大挑战，包括财政压力、移民问题、日益加剧的不平等，以及社会共识的某种破裂。一些人怀疑这种模式能否在本国维持下去，更不用说将其推广到那些规模更大、人口同质化程度较低且对税收更为排斥的国家了。

On the other hand, it’s not an alien model but, for Americans, a path we once blazed. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard economist, told me that the United States and Scandinavian nations pursued similar policies from the 1940s through the 1960s. That was the period when the United States rapidly expanded educational opportunities, had strong unions and, in the 1940s, experimented with universal child care. The post-World War II period is sometimes thought of as a golden age, for the economic pie both grew and was sliced more equally.

另一方面，对于美国人来说，这并非一种完全陌生的模式，而是我们曾经开辟过的道路。哈佛大学经济学家劳伦斯·卡茨告诉我，美国和斯堪的纳维亚国家在20世纪40年代至60年代期间奉行高度相似的政策。那段时期，美国迅速扩大教育机会、工会力量强大，并在40年代试行普惠性儿童托育。第二次世界大战后的这段时期有时被视为黄金时代，因为经济蛋糕不仅在变大，而且切得更加公平。

“The U.S. in the mid-20th century was sort of like Scandinavia today,” Katz said. But America changed course in the 1970s and eventually embraced the Reagan revolution.

“20世纪中叶的美国在某种程度上就像今天的斯堪的纳维亚，”卡茨说。但美国在70年代改变了航向，并最终迎来了里根革命。

One reason for the retreat, I’ve argued, was racialized political rhetoric that characterized some safety-net programs and investments in opportunity — used by Americans from all walks of life — as handouts primarily benefiting Black people, with a particular emphasis on caricatures of the “welfare queen.”

我认为这种倒退的原因之一是政治上带有种族色彩的煽动性言论，这些言论将那些各行各业美国人都在使用的社会安全网计划和机会投资描述为主要惠及黑人的施舍，并特别渲染了“福利女王”这一刻板丑化形象。

It’s also true that the American economy in the 1970s was underperforming and markets did need a kick in the pants in the form of deregulation. Meanwhile, the Nordic countries largely continued their investments in human capital and reducing inequality.

诚然，20世纪70年代的美国经济表现不佳，市场确实需要通过放松管制来注入一剂强心针。但反观北欧国家，它们很大程度上是在选择继续对人力资本进行投资，并致力于减少不平等。

Although I’ve been visiting the Nordic countries for decades, I became more interested in their model over the past 15 years because of the struggles of my hometown in rural Oregon. Mills and factories closed, meth arrived, and three school friends died while homeless on the streets.

虽然几十年来一直频繁造访北欧各国，但过去15年里，我对他们的模式产生了更浓厚的兴趣，这是因为我看到了故乡所经历的挣扎。在俄勒冈乡村地区，工厂和作坊倒闭、冰毒泛滥，我的三个学生时代的朋友最终无家可归，横尸街头。

I can’t help thinking that they might be alive today if they had been born in Scandinavia with its strong social safety net.

我不禁在想，如果他们当年出生在拥有强大社会安全网的斯堪的纳维亚，如今他们也许还活着。

How does this system work in practice?

这个体系在现实中是如何运作的？

Consider Hauk Kjaeran, 24, a waiter at Nektar restaurant in Oslo. He has been at his job for only a few months but is paid more than $25 an hour, not including tips.

让我们来看看24岁的豪克·凯兰，他是奥斯陆Nektar餐厅的一名服务员。他在这份岗位上仅仅干了几个月，但他的时薪已超过25美元，这还不包括小费。

He also gets five weeks’ vacation, earns a pension, is entitled to hefty parental and sick leave and is studying to be a sommelier, all paid for.

他还享有五周的假期、累积养老金、丰厚的育儿假和病假，并且正在进修侍酒师课程，所有费用都由公司承担。

A full workweek in Norway is 37.5 hours, but Kjaeran asked for a 60 percent contract. “I have some other stuff to do, and I like my freedom as well,” he explained.

在挪威，标准的法定全职工作时间是每周37.5小时，但凯兰要求签订一份60%工作量的合同。“我还有其他事情要忙，而且我也喜欢拥有自由，”他解释道。

One waitress at the restaurant is on leave, sailing around the world with friends. I asked the restaurant owner, Veslemoey Hvidsten, what she thought of her missing employee.

这家餐厅的一位女服务员目前正在休假，和朋友一起驾船环游世界。我询问餐厅老板维斯勒莫伊·维德斯滕如何看待这位缺勤的员工。

“She wanted to do this,” Hvidsten said. “So we said, ‘Yeah, why not?’”

“她想去实现这个梦想，”维德斯滕说。“所以我们说，‘好啊，为什么不呢？’”

Hvidsten emphasized that her aim isn’t to squeeze every last penny she can out of her restaurant, and that happy employees are better for customers and for her business.

维德斯滕强调，她的经营目标并不是从餐厅里压榨出最后一分钱，快乐的员工对顾客和她自己的生意都更有利。

“That’s how we build the whole country,” she added. “Taking care of each other.”

“这就是我们建设整个国家的方式，”她补充道。“互相照顾。”

When Americans discuss the Nordic system, they sometimes suffer from three misunderstandings.

当美国人讨论北欧体系时，他们有时会陷入三个误解之中。

The first is that these are socialist countries. While they are often run by social democrats, they have market economies. Sweden did experiment in the 1970s and ’80s with quasi-socialist policies, but the upshot was an economic crisis. As Johan Norberg, a Swedish writer, put it: “We have been socialists and we’ve been successful — but never at the same time.”

第一个误解是这些国家是社会主义国家。尽管经常由社会民主党人执政，它们的背后是市场配置的经济体制。瑞典在20世纪70和80年代确实尝试过准社会主义政策，但这最终导致了经济危机。正如瑞典作家约翰·诺伯格所说：“我们曾走过社会主义道路，我们也曾取得过成功——但这两者从未同时发生过。”

The second misunderstanding is that because of their strong welfare systems, citizens of Nordic countries lie around while collecting benefits. Sure, some people do manipulate the system, but the labor force participation rate is higher in Nordic countries than in the United States.

第二个误解是，由于国家有强大的福利保障，公民只会躺平吃福利。诚然，确实有人在钻体制的空子，但北欧国家的劳动力参与率实际上高于美国。

The third is that in the case of Norway, its success is mostly a reflection of its oil wealth. Oil has given Norway a nice cushion, but the country has also managed the cushion unusually well — putting it in what is one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds. Moreover, according to Geir Axelsen, the director-general of Statistics Norway, the increase in female labor force participation in Norway since the early 1970s appears to have added roughly as much to the country’s gross domestic product as oil has.

第三个误解是，挪威的成功主要建立在石油财富之上。石油确实给挪威提供了雄厚的经济底气，但该国对这笔财富的管理异乎寻常地好——将其存入了全球最大的主权财富基金之一。此外，根据挪威国家统计局局长盖尔·阿克塞尔森的说法，自20世纪70年代初以来，挪威女性劳动力参与率的提高对该国国内生产总值的贡献与石油基本不相上下。

Indeed, women are an underappreciated component of the Nordic economic engine. Historically, American women had higher rates of labor force participation than did women in most other countries, but Scandinavia now easily surpasses the United States by this metric. In 2025, some 56 percent of American working-age women were in the labor force; in Sweden and Norway, the figure was around 62 percent; in Iceland, 70 percent. Having the flexibility to work part time or adjust hours is one factor that almost certainly increases the share of women in the labor force in Nordic countries. Another factor is the availability of high-quality day care. Norway’s system, which is typical, takes children from the age of 1, and the cost is about $120 per month. For low-income families, it’s nearly free.

事实上，女性是北欧经济引擎中一个常被低估的要素。在历史上，美国女性的劳动力参与率曾高于大多数其他国家，但目前斯堪的纳维亚在这一指标上已轻松超越美国。在2025年，约56%的美国适龄工作女性进入了劳动力市场；而在瑞典和挪威，这一比例约为62%；在冰岛则高达70%。能够灵活选择兼职工作或调整工作时间无疑是提高北欧女性劳动力参与率的一个关键因素。另一个因素是高质量日托服务的普及。挪威的制度具有代表性：接收一岁以上的儿童，每月费用约为120美元。对于低收入家庭，这项服务几乎是全免的。

“If it wasn’t for this kindergarten, we wouldn’t have three kids,” Mats Brekke, a solar engineer, told me as he dropped by the day care center in Oslo where his middle child spends the day. He had his 10-month-old daughter on his arm; she’ll start in August.

“如果没有这个幼儿园，我们绝不可能生三个孩子，”太阳能工程师马茨·布雷克在顺道前往奥斯陆的一家日托中心时告诉我，他的二女儿每天都在这里度过。他怀里还抱着10个月大的女儿，她也将在今年8月入托。

The day care center where I met Brekke was in a working-class Oslo neighborhood, with bright rooms and a diverse group of children playing with one another — all rattling away in Norwegian. That’s one aim of the system: encouraging children in immigrant communities to embrace being Norwegian from an early age.

我与布雷克相遇的这家日托中心位于奥斯陆的一个工人阶级社区，房间明亮，一群来自不同背景的孩子们在一起玩耍，都用挪威语叽叽喳喳地说着话。这正是该体制的目的之一：鼓励移民社区的孩子们从小就融入并接纳自己作为挪威人的身份。

“Especially for children who come from other countries, like immigrants or refugees, it will help them to integrate,” said a teacher, Worod Alkazemi, herself an Iraqi Norwegian who says she was molded into a Norwegian a generation ago as a little girl in day care.

“特别是对于那些来自其他国家的孩子，比如移民或难民，这能极大地帮助他们融入社会，”教师沃罗德·阿尔卡泽米说。她本身就是伊拉克裔，她说她以前就是这样在日托中心里被塑造成为一名挪威人的。

One-fifth of Norwegians are either immigrants or their children, often from countries like Syria or Somalia with conservative social cultures. Day care centers try to nurture Nordic social attitudes, which tend to be more liberal.

五分之一的挪威人是移民或移民的后代，他们大多来自叙利亚或索马里等社会文化相对保守的国家。日托中心则致力于培育往往更为包容、自由的北欧社会观念。

“It’s June, and we’re talking about Pride Month,” said Cathrine Pedersen, the chief of the day care center, which had a rainbow flag fluttering outside. “To have a symbol of diversity. Showing that there are different ways of living lives.”

“现在是6月，我们正在谈论骄傲月，”该日托中心负责人凯瑟琳·佩德森说，中心外面正飘扬着一面彩虹旗。“这是多元化的象征。它旨在向孩子们展示，生活可以有不同的方式。”

To understand how the Nordic socioeconomic system evolved, I dropped by the office of Kalle Moene, an economist at the University of Oslo. The system began in the 1930s, he said, when workers in thriving sectors of the economy agreed to hold down their wage demands to support sectors that were struggling.

为了理解北欧社会经济制度是如何演变而来的，我造访了奥斯陆大学经济学家卡勒·莫尼的办公室。他介绍称，这一体系始于20世纪30年代，当时那些身处繁荣行业的工人同意压低自己的薪资要求，以支持陷入困境的行业。

That principle — sacrificing to help those not doing so well — still underpins the region’s business model. Norwegians who are better off are willing to give up some income to ensure that people in blue-collar jobs get by.

这种为了照顾弱者而自我牺牲的原则时至今日依然支撑着该地区的商业模式。富裕的挪威人愿意让渡一部分收入，以确保蓝领阶层能够维持生计。

Moene argues that this wage compression promotes innovation and dynamism by boosting the profitability of growth industries and by lowering profits in lagging industries.

莫尼认为，由于提高了增长型行业的盈利能力并压低了落后行业的利润，这种工资压缩政策反而促进了创新和经济活力。

“The lowest wages become higher, destroying bad jobs,” Moene said. “The highest wages become lower, creating more good jobs.”

“最低工资上涨消灭了糟糕的工作，”莫尼说。“最高工资被压低则创造了更多优质的工作。”

In addition, the social safety net in Nordic countries means that workers are less fearful of trade and technology costing their jobs. This makes it easier to embrace policies that boost growth overall but threaten some positions, Stoltenberg said.

此外，北欧国家的社会安全网意味着工人不必过于担心贸易和技术会让他们的岗位消失。斯托尔滕贝格表示，这使得人们更容易去拥抱那些能促进整体增长、即使会威胁到某些具体岗位的政策。

I wonder if wage compression may also have resulted in political compression. There seems to be less political toxicity in Nordic countries than in the United States and many other countries. By international standards, civility reigns. Right-wing nationalists exist here, but haven’t made as many inroads as in Germany, France or Britain.

我在想，工资的压缩是否也带来了政治上的收敛。与美国和许多其他国家相比，北欧国家的政治毒性似乎明显较弱。以国际标准来看，这里依然礼貌理智。右翼民族主义者虽然存在，但他们未能像在德国、法国或英国那样势如破竹。

Eirik Lae Solberg, the governing mayor of Oslo, is an important figure in the country’s conservative party. He opposes the country’s wealth tax and generally thinks Norwegian taxes are too high. But by American standards, he would count as liberal.

奥斯陆执政市长埃里克·莱·索尔伯格是该国保守党的重要人物。他反对财富税，并认为挪威的税率总体过高。但如果按照美国的标准来看，他绝对会被划归为自由派。

“I strongly believe that what we do in the Nordics to provide opportunity for all is growth-promoting,” Solberg told me. “In the U.S., I would probably be on the left.”

“我坚信我们北欧为所有人提供机会的举措是能够促进经济增长的，”索尔伯格告诉我。“如果在美国，我大概会属于左翼。”

For all the success of the Nordic model to date, it is under great pressure. Many social benefits are expensive, and paying for them is a growing challenge as the population ages and requires more elder care.

尽管北欧模式迄今取得了巨大的成功，它目前也承受着极大的压力。许多社会福利开支巨大，随着人口老龄化以及对老年人照护需求的激增，如何维持这些开支正成为一个日益严峻的挑战。

“Every institution in the society is under strain,” said Shazia Majid, a columnist at VG, a Norwegian newspaper. She noted that because so many women are working, they aren’t able to care for aging parents — at-home labor that would probably fall to women more often than to men — and the system is financially pressed even as it needs tens of thousands more health workers.

挪威报纸《世界之路》的专栏作家沙齐亚·马吉德表示：“社会中的每一个机构都在承受着重压。” 她指出，由于极高比例的女性在参与工作，她们无法在家里照顾年迈的父母——而在过去，这种家庭内部的劳动往往更多由女性承担——这导致整个系统急需数万名医疗工作者，财政也面临着压力。

Immigration adds to the challenges, particularly in Sweden, where a quarter of the population is now made up of immigrants or their children. Violent crime, often linked by commentators to immigration, is a serious problem in Sweden (although the country is far from being the world’s “rape capital,” as some lurid right-wing accounts claim).

移民问题同样加剧了这一挑战，尤其是在瑞典，该国四分之一的人口由移民或其子女构成。时常被评论人士归咎于移民的暴力犯罪在瑞典已成为一个严重的社会问题（尽管该国远非某些右翼夸大其词所声称的全球“强奸之都”）。

Serious observers, most notably Mario Draghi, the former European Central Bank president and a former prime minister of Italy, suggest that Europe has lost some of its competitiveness, and that sentiment resonates in the Nordics as well. I think there’s something to that, but the hand-wringing can be overdone in the case of the Nordic countries. Sweden ranks No. 2 in the Global Innovation Index, produced by the World Intellectual Property Organization, ahead of the United States at No. 3. Finland and Denmark are also in the top ten.

许多严肃的观察家——以前欧洲中央银行行长、前意大利总理马里奥·德拉吉为代表——指出，欧洲已经丧失了部分竞争力，这种情绪在北欧同样引发了共鸣。我认为这种担忧不无道理，但在北欧国家的案例中，这种焦虑或许有些过头。在世界知识产权组织发布的《全球创新指数》中，瑞典高居全球第二，领先于排名第三的美国。芬兰和丹麦同样位列全球前十。

I’ve been talking about Nordic policies, but what if the big driver of success isn’t policy so much as norms? These are traditionally homogeneous societies that maintain village values of mutual support. When researchers “lost” wallets in 40 countries around the world, the two countries with the highest rates of the wallets being returned (when they contained money) were Denmark and Sweden.

我一直在谈论北欧的政策，但如果成功的关键驱动力并非政策而是社会规范呢？这些社会在传统上属于同质化社会，至今保留着邻里互助的村落价值观。当研究人员在全球40个国家故意“丢失”装有现金的钱包时，归还率最高的两个国家正是丹麦和瑞典。

My sense is that norms and policies reinforce each other. Iyad el-Baghdadi, a prominent Palestinian in Norway who was accepted as a refugee, said that Norwegians had been extraordinarily welcoming and kind. But it’s not just that, he added: “It’s that this is the system.”

在我看来，社会规范和国家政策实际上在相互强化。在挪威获得难民庇护的知名巴勒斯坦活动家伊亚德·巴格达迪表示，挪威人表现出了超乎寻常的包容与善良。但他补充道，这不仅仅是因为善良：“更因为这就是他们的整个系统。”

Stoltenberg offered an example of policy molding norms. In the 1980s, he and others pushed for paid paternity leaves in part to ensure that dads would spend time with their newborn children. This social engineering worked: Fathers now are deeply involved in caring for children, taking some of the load off mothers. “That’s perhaps one of those reforms that have really changed Norway,” Stoltenberg told me.

斯托尔滕贝格提供了一个通过政策塑造社会规范的绝佳例子。在20世纪80年代，他和同行者极力推动带薪陪产假，部分原因就是为了确保父亲们能够花时间陪伴新生儿。这种社会工程学成功了：如今的挪威父亲们深度参与到照顾孩子的事务中，极大地分担了母亲们的负担。“这或许是真正改变了挪威的那些核心改革之一，”斯托尔滕贝格告诉我。

Is the Nordic model replicable? Could convenience stores and gas stations in America pay their cashiers and attendants $20 or more an hour plus a pension and five weeks’ vacation?

北欧模式是可以复制的吗？ 美国的便利店和加油站真的能给收银员和服务员提供20美元以上的时薪、养老金和五周年假吗？

One challenge, economists told me, is that relative to many American workers, Norwegian laborers often have higher literacy rates, appear more able to pass a drug test, can handle technology better and can be relied upon to stay in their jobs longer, meaning that employers benefit from a more experienced, more productive work force. In effect, Nordic employers can pay more in part because workers generate more income.

经济学家告诉我，这里面临的一个巨大挑战在于，相较于许多美国工人，北欧的劳动者通常拥有更高的读写水平、滥用药物问题较少、技术操作能力更强，且在岗位上的流动率更低，这意味着雇主能够从一支经验更丰富、生产率更高的劳动力队伍中获益。实际上，北欧雇主之所以能够支付更高的薪水，部分原因在于工人们自身创造了更高的价值。

In that sense, learning from the Nordics is not as simple as raising minimum wages and seeing happiness soar. Rather, it’s the challenge of investing in human capital from early childhood through university-level education, pushing relentlessly to broaden opportunity at every level.

从这个意义上说，向北欧国家学习绝非盲目地提高最低工资然后坐等幸福感飙升那么简单。相反，它真正的挑战在于如何持续对人力资本进行长线投资——从幼儿时期一直延续到大学教育，在每一个层面上不遗余力地去拓宽人们的发展空间。

All this raises taxes. But it also raises skills and makes workers more productive. From a distance, we see how much Nordic workers get; up close, you see also how much they contribute.

所有这一切确实会推高税收。但它同样提升了国民的技能，并让劳动者变得更加高效。远距离审视时，我们看到的只是北欧工人拿到了多少；但唯有近距离观察，你才会发现他们到底做出了多少贡献。

Over the course of 2025, President Trump made bold claims about the amount of investment pouring into the United States from foreign countries. With his administration putting steep tariffs on imports, he argued, foreign companies would be forced to locate their factories in America for access to the U.S. market.

2025年间，特朗普总统就外国对美投资规模屡屡发出惊人之语。他宣称，随着政府对进口商品加征高额关税，外国公司将被迫把工厂迁至美国，以换取进入美国市场的机会。

Mr. Trump claimed investment numbers that increased from $17 trillion last September, to $18 trillion in December, to $21 trillion. That would amount to two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, and is far more than the White House ever enumerated on its website tracking the commitments.

特朗普声称的投资数字不断攀升：从去年9月的17万亿美元，到12月的18万亿美元，再到21万亿美元。这一数额相当于美国国内生产总值的三分之二，也远超白宫官网追踪相关投资承诺所列出的金额。

Nevertheless, some of that investment was promised by U.S. trading partners who were looking for ways to appease the president in the face of stiff tariffs. Mr. Trump extracted about $5 trillion in commitments, over the course of up to 10 years, from the European Union, Asia and the Persian Gulf. If that money materialized, it would constitute an overwhelming influx of capital, nearly double the average rate of investment America received from 2015 through 2024.

尽管如此，其中部分投资承诺确实来自美国的贸易伙伴，它们希望在面对高额关税时，通过作出让步来安抚特朗普。在长达10年的时间里，特朗普从欧盟、亚洲以及波斯湾地区获得了约5万亿美元的投资承诺。如果最终全部兑现，将形成规模惊人的资本流入，几乎是美国2015年至2024年资本平均流入水平的两倍。

Investment deals can take years to close, meaning that definitive evidence will take time to show up. For now, the early data contains notes of both promise and concern. Factors other than federal policy probably contributed to an apparent surge in new foreign investment last year, while a broader measure suggests that, on the whole, foreign investors are treading cautiously.

投资交易往往需要数年才能落地，这意味着确凿的数据证据尚需时日方能浮现。目前，初步数据喜忧参半。去年外国新增投资之所以看起来大幅增加，可能不仅仅是联邦政府政策造成的，还有其他因素在发挥作用；而一项更宏观的衡量指标则显示，整体而言，外国投资者依然保持谨慎。

“This year, some things are positive, but it’s a mixed picture,” said Gregory Auclair, a statistician with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It just means that you’re going to need a lot in future years to catch up with the amounts that are promised, if they are credible at all.”

“今年，有些方面是积极的，但情况喜忧参半，”彼得森国际经济研究所统计学家格雷戈里·奥克莱尔表示。“这意味着，如果这些承诺真的可信，就需要在未来几年大量新增投资，才能赶上承诺的金额。”

New foreign direct investment in the United States rebounded significantly, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The figure increased to $232 billion last year from $155 billion in 2024, reversing a three-year downward trend. The data includes foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies, as well as money foreign firms spend to establish new companies and expand existing ones. The ramp-up is also reflected in project announcements collected by FDI Intelligence, a subsidiary of The Financial Times.

根据美国经济分析局的数据，美国的外国直接投资显著反弹。该数字从2024年的1550亿美元增至去年的2320亿美元，扭转了连续三年的下降趋势。该数据包括外国公司对美国公司的收购，以及外国公司用于建立新公司和扩大现有业务的支出。英国《金融时报》旗下FDI Intelligence搜集的项目公告也反映出类似的增长趋势。

But the federal statistics agency publishes another measure that takes a more holistic view of investment, incorporating foreign money that is withdrawn from the country as well. When divestments, intracompany lending and other financial flows are included, the trajectory changes: Net investment into the United States decreased slightly last year and sat below the average for the previous decade.

然而，联邦统计机构还公布了另一项更为全面的衡量指标，它将外国资本撤离美国的情况同时纳入统计。当把撤资、企业内部借贷以及其他资金流动计算在内后，走势便截然不同：去年流入美国的净投资小幅下降，低于前十年的均值。

In recent years, international capital has increasingly arrived in the form of earnings from U.S. affiliates that are reinvested locally, rather than from new businesses either purchased or built from the ground up.

近年来，国际资本越来越多地以美国子公司收益再投资的形式流入，而非通过购买或新建企业的方式流入。

“Companies that are sophisticated and familiar with the U.S. market continue to double down on their investments here, but new equity is just not coming into the U.S. in the proportion that it once was,” said Jonathan Samford, the president of the Global Business Alliance, which supports foreign investors. “The car continues down the highway in forward motion, but it’s not accelerating.”

“那些经验丰富、熟悉美国市场的企业仍在不断加大对美国的投资，但新的股权资本流入美国的规模已经不及从前，”全球商业联盟总裁乔纳森·桑福德说，该联盟致力于支持外国投资者。“汽车仍在高速公路上向前行驶，但已不再加速。”

Trump’s tariff stick

特朗普的关税大棒

The Trump administration has used a heavy hand to push foreigners to invest in the United States, lowering tariffs on the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other trading partners in exchange for huge investment promises. Foreign governments and companies have pledged to invest in U.S. chip plants, nuclear projects, ports, mines and factories.

特朗普政府采取强硬手段推动外国对美投资，通过降低对欧盟、日本、韩国、台湾和其他贸易伙伴的关税，换取巨额投资承诺。外国政府和企业已承诺投资美国芯片工厂、核能项目、港口、矿山和工厂。

Some commitments, for example from the European Union, appear to contain repackaged announcements that companies had already intended to make. But the biggest such promise — a $550 billion investment pledge from Japan, America’s biggest source of foreign investment — has been moving forward.

其中一些承诺——例如来自欧盟的部分投资——似乎只是把企业原本就计划宣布的投资重新包装了一遍。不过，规模最大的承诺，即日本提出的5500亿美元投资计划（日本是美国最大的外国投资来源国），目前正在推进中。

Reva Goujon, a director at the Rhodium Group, a research firm, said uncertainty about forthcoming tariffs on semiconductors and other products, as well as over the U.S. trade deal with Canada and Mexico, was holding some investments back.

研究公司荣鼎集团的总监雷瓦·古戎表示，即将出台的半导体等产品关税的不确定性，以及美国与加拿大和墨西哥贸易协定的不确定性，正在阻碍部分投资。

Foreign governments have felt less pressure to abide by deals made under the threat of tariffs that the Supreme Court overturned in February. For some companies, tariffs have raised the cost of imported inputs, like the steel, aluminum or machinery needed to build new factories.

今年2月最高法院推翻了关税令之后，外国政府不再像以前那样急于兑现当初在关税威胁下做出的承诺。对部分企业而言，关税推高了进口原材料的成本，例如建造新工厂所需的钢材、铝材和机械设备。

But Ms. Goujon said Japan, which has been dealing with a stagnant economy, recognized the need to seek higher returns abroad and strengthen ties with the United States given security challenges from China.

但古戎表示，日本长期经济增长停滞，因此认识到有必要到海外寻求更高回报；同时，考虑到来自中国的安全挑战，日本也希望加强与美国的联系。

“Is there political will by Japan and by many of these companies to invest in strategic projects in the U.S.?” she asked, rhetorically. “Absolutely.”

她反问道：“日本以及许多企业，是否有政治意愿投资美国的战略项目？当然有。”

Bigger levers

更深层的驱动力

Much of what pushes foreign investment up or down has little to do with government policy. Rather, it’s driven by macroeconomic factors that propel capital across borders, or technological developments that attract investors.

推动外资涨落的很大一部分因素其实与政府政策关系并不大，而是由驱动跨境资本流动的宏观经济因素，或吸引投资者的新技术发展所决定。

来自日本的投资运作结构颇为新颖，由商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克亲自谈判敲定。

For example, the uptick in new foreign investment in 2025 was partly driven by lower interest rates that unfroze mergers and acquisitions, driving some of the foreign purchases of companies in America. The year also saw mounting investment in data centers for artificial intelligence, reaching nearly $500 billion worldwide, according to Gartner. The United Nations found that global foreign investment flows rose 6 percent in 2025, mostly across a small number of megaprojects in developed nations.

例如，2025年外国新增投资增长的部分原因在于利率下降，使此前冻结的企业并购活动重新活跃起来，从而带动了外国企业收购美国公司的交易。同年，全球人工智能数据中心投资也出现持续增长。根据Gartner的数据，这类投资规模已接近5000亿美元。联合国的数据亦显示，2025年全球外国投资流量增长了6%，主要集中在发达国家的少数大型项目上。

“This pickup — and many of the sectors are similar — is a global phenomenon,” said Adnan Mazarei, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s not entirely obvious that this is a result of tariffs or not, because the Europeans are not doing this, but there is huge investment happening in, for example, A.I. and data centers all over the world.”

“这轮回升——而且涉及的很多行业都差不多——是一个全球性现象，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员阿德南·马扎赖说。“这究竟是不是关税政策的结果，并不能完全确定，因为欧洲并未这样做，但人工智能和数据中心等领域正在全球范围内掀起巨额投资浪潮。”

But political decisions can swamp those larger forces, and Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran may be one of them. The resulting war has had two effects: One, it raised energy prices, which fueled inflation and drove up interest rates. And two, it made countries that had been large sources of outbound investment rethink their overseas projects.

但政治决策可能压过这些更大的力量，特朗普对伊朗的攻击可能就是一例。由此引发的战争产生了两个影响：一是推高了能源价格，加剧了通货膨胀并推高了利率；二是使那些原本作为对外投资重要来源的国家开始重新考虑自己的海外投资项目。

That’s particularly true of nations in the Persian Gulf, which now have a lot of damaged energy and defense infrastructure to rebuild.

这一点在波斯湾国家身上尤为突出，它们如今有大量受损的能源和国防基础设施需要重建。

“The war is now slowing down the plan of outward investment,” said James Zhan, who heads the board of the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies. “As the war is dragging longer, and there’s a cease-fire but there’s no durable peace, there’s no re-establishment of stability, so countries need to mind home.”

“这场战争正在拖慢对外投资的步伐，”世界投资促进机构协会执理会主席詹晓宁说。“随着战争持续时间越来越长，虽然实现了停火，但尚未形成持久和平，稳定局面迟迟未能重建，因此各国必须把更多资源放在国内。"

The war isn’t the only thing weighing on foreign investment. Removing Biden-era subsidies for clean energy development cut short a boom in battery manufacturing and renewable energy deployment, much of which was financed from overseas. That’s particularly true of Chinese companies, according to an analysis by the Rhodium Group.

战争并非影响外国投资的唯一因素。美国取消了拜登时期的清洁能源发展补贴，中断了电池制造和可再生能源建设的热潮——这些项目大量依赖海外资本。根据荣鼎集团的分析，这一点对中国企业而言尤为明显。

The broader loss of confidence in the United States’ sticking to any policy commitments has damaged its reputation as a safe home for global capital. A survey by the consulting firm Kearney found that America substantially dropped in the eyes of foreign investors last year, with Canada and Japan gaining favor.

此外，美国在遵守政策承诺方面整体信誉的下降也削弱了它作为全球资本安全投资目的地的声誉。咨询公司科尔尼的一项调查发现，去年美国在外国投资者心目中的吸引力明显下降，而加拿大和日本则更受青睐。

“I think there are some really fundamental doubts about the long-term trustworthiness of the U.S. both as an economic partner and a military ally,” said Thilo Hanemann, a partner at the Rhodium Group. He added, “There’s been a huge change of mind over the past two years on that.”

“我认为，无论是作为经济伙伴还是军事盟友，美国的长期可信度正面临根本性的质疑，”荣鼎咨询合伙人提洛·汉尼曼说。他还表示，“过去两年间，外界对此的看法已发生了巨大转变。”

The United States carried out airstrikes against several targets in Iran on Tuesday, hours after revoking a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil around the world, in a dual response to what the Pentagon said were Iranian attacks on three commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

周二，美国对伊朗境内的数个目标实施了空袭，此前数小时，美国刚撤销了允许伊朗向全球出售石油的豁免令。此举是对五角大楼所称的伊朗袭击三艘穿越霍尔木兹海峡商船事件的双重回应。

The military’s Central Command said on social media that U.S. forces “have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.”

军方中央司令部在社交媒体上表示，美军“已开始对伊朗发动一系列强有力的打击，令其为在国际水道针对和攻击由无辜平民驾驶的商业船只付出沉重代价”。

The attacks on the commercial ships, including a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier in waters off the coast of Oman, threatened to disrupt the resumption of energy supplies from the region and derail the preliminary accord between Washington and Tehran to reopen the strategic waterway.

这些袭击发生在阿曼近海，遇袭船只包括一艘沙特油轮和一艘卡塔尔液化天然气运输船。此举威胁到了该地区能源供应恢复的进程，并有可能破坏华盛顿和德黑兰之间关于重新开放这条战略水道的初步协议。

“Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the cease-fire,” Central Command said in a statement on social media.

“伊朗所表现出的侵略行为毫无道理、极其危险，并且公然违反了停火协议，”中央司令部在社交媒体上发表的声明中说。

Tehran has not claimed responsibility for the ship attacks, and there was no immediate public comment from the authorities in Iran, where a dayslong program of funeral ceremonies is underway for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader who was killed on the first day of the war. Negotiations between Iran and the United States have been paused until after the funeral.

德黑兰尚未宣布对船只袭击事件负责，伊朗当局也没有立即发表公开评论。该国目前正为最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊举行长达数日的葬礼，他在战争爆发的第一天丧生。伊朗和美国之间的谈判已经暂停，直到葬礼结束后才会恢复。

Although the United States and Iran have agreed to restore access to the strait — with President Trump declaring the waterway open to unrestricted navigation — the preliminary accord does not stipulate exactly how that should happen, and assigns to Iran the task of allowing the long-blocked traffic to get through. Iran has insisted that commercial ships sail near its shore, in a channel under Iran’s control, but many vessels are using American help to take a route near the Omani coast.

尽管美国和伊朗已同意恢复该海峡的通行——特朗普总统宣布该水道对所有船只开放，允许无限制航行——但这项初步协议并未明确规定具体实施方式，而是将允许长期受阻的交通恢复这一任务交给了伊朗。伊朗坚持要求商船沿伊朗近海航行，通过伊朗控制的航道，但许多船只正借助美国的帮助，选择靠近阿曼海岸的航线。

Without the waiver, which was issued by the U.S. Treasury, Iran can no longer sell its oil on the open market for dollars — at least not openly. The exemption was supposed to last for 60 days, the length of the cease-fire that Mr. Trump has celebrated, prematurely, as a peace agreement.

如果没有由美国财政部颁发的豁免令，伊朗将不再能够在公开市场上以美元出售石油——至少不能公开进行。该豁免期本应持续60天，这正是曾被特朗普过早吹捧为和平协议的停火所规定的期限。

The United States long relied heavily on sanctions in an effort to limit Iran’s nuclear development. The waiver was part of a strategy to boost the accord’s chances of success by giving Iran a taste of the riches it could bring in from resumed oil sales around the globe. The theory was that those inside Iran seeking a peace deal would gain leverage over the military leadership that has opposed any agreement that might limit the country’s nuclear options.

美国长期以来一直严重依赖制裁，试图限制伊朗的核发展。该豁免是整体战略的一部分，旨在通过让伊朗尝到恢复全球石油销售所能带来的丰厚收益，从而提高该协议成功的几率。其理论依据是，伊朗国内寻求达成和平协议的人士将因此获得对军方领导层的谈判筹码，而军方领导层一直反对任何可能限制该国核选择的协议。

Earlier on Tuesday, after the ships were attacked but before the American response, Mr. Trump seemed to downplay the conflict with Iran as he met with NATO leaders in Ankara, Turkey.

周二早些时候，在船只遭袭之后和美方回应之前，特朗普在土耳其安卡拉会见北约领导人时似乎淡化了与伊朗的冲突。

“The war with Iran — or whatever you call it, it’s not even a war,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s a military operation. It’s a denuclearization, that’s really what it is.”

“和伊朗的战争——或者不管你怎么称呼它，它甚至算不上一场战争，”特朗普说。“这是一次军事行动。这是一次无核化行动，这才是它的本质。”

Iranian state media reported early Wednesday that sounds of explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm and Sirik, all in Hormozgan Province along Iran’s southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz. The province is central to Iran’s military and commercial presence around the strait, a key global shipping route.

伊朗官方媒体周三早间报道，在阿巴斯港、格什姆和锡里克都听到了爆炸声，这些地方均位于伊朗南部海岸靠近霍尔木兹海峡的霍尔木兹甘省。该省是伊朗在海峡周边维持军事和商业存在的重要中心，而该海峡是一条关键的全球航运路线。

Iran’s state broadcaster said the locations hit appeared to be the same ones targeted in earlier attacks during the conflict. The Hormozgan governor’s office said there had been no reports of civilian injuries so far.

伊朗国家广播公司表示，遭袭地点似乎与此前冲突中被袭击的目标地点相同。霍尔木兹甘省省长办公室表示，到目前为止尚未收到平民伤亡的报告。

The attacks on the three ships and the American military response on Tuesday threatened to tilt the region back into a spasm of violence that last surged nearly two weeks ago. The back-and-forth also lay bare the challenges to restoring prewar levels of traffic through the strait, a crucial conduit for oil and gas shipping.

周二针对三艘船只的袭击以及美国军方的回应可能使该地区再度陷入近两周前才平息的暴力冲突。这种反反复复的交锋也凸显出，要令作为石油和天然气运输关键通道的霍尔木兹海峡恢复到战前的航运水平，仍面临诸多挑战。

The U.S. military conducted strikes on Iran on June 26 in retaliation for an Iranian attack in the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier, hours after Mr. Trump called the Iranian action a “foolish violation” of the fragile cease-fire between the two countries.

美军于6月26日对伊朗进行了打击，以报复前一天伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的袭击。几小时前，特朗普称伊朗的行动是对两国脆弱停火协议的“愚蠢破坏”。

U.S. Central Command said in a statement at that time that it had struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites as a “powerful response” to the Iranian attack. The American strikes concluded after about 90 minutes, and included attacks by American fighter jets against four Iranian sites along the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island, a U.S. official said.

美国中央司令部当时在声明中表示，作为对伊朗袭击的“强有力回应”，美方打击了伊朗的导弹和无人机存储地点以及沿海雷达站。一名美国官员称，美军的打击在约90分钟后结束，其中包括美国战斗机对沿霍尔木兹海峡和格什姆岛的四个伊朗目标发动的袭击。

Mr. Trump said earlier in a post on social media that Iran had launched at least four one-way-attack drones on June 25, one of which hit the upper deck of a “of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship,” adding that the United States had knocked down three other drones. He added that the ship, though damaged, was able to continue on its way.

特朗普此前在社交媒体上发帖称，伊朗在6月25日发射了至少四架单向攻击无人机，其中一架击中了一艘“巨大且极其昂贵的货船”的上层甲板，并说美国击落了另外三架无人机。他还补充说，该船只虽然受损，但仍能继续航行。

Iran’s strike on the vessel, the Ever Lovely, a container ship that was passing near the Omani side of the strait, appeared to be the first known Iranian attack on a commercial vessel since the signing of a preliminary peace agreement between Tehran and Washington.

伊朗对正从海峡阿曼一侧附近经过的集装箱船Ever Lovely号的打击似乎是自美伊签署初步和平协议以来已知的伊朗首次针对商船的袭击。

With one missile fired over the Pacific Ocean from a submarine lurking off China’s coast, the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, has proclaimed his determination to build a full suite of nuclear weapons, including sea-based missiles that have long been Beijing’s weak spot.

一艘潜伏在中国沿海的潜艇向太平洋发射了一枚导弹，中国最高领导人习近平由此宣告其打造一个完整核武器体系的决心，其中包括长期以来一直被视为北京弱项的潜射导弹。

The missile test on Monday came after China’s military has been battered for years by mass removals of commanders accused of corruption and disloyalty. But Chinese media declared that the test showed the country remained on track to create a full nuclear triad; that is, a range of land-, air- and sea-based weapons that could give Beijing a stronger hand in a regional crisis or war with the United States.

在周一举行此次导弹试验之前，中国军队多年来因大批被控腐败和不忠的指挥官遭到清洗而饱受打击。但中国媒体宣称，这次试验表明该国在构建完整的“三位一体”——即涵盖陆基、空基和海基的武器体系——核打击力量方面依然走在正轨上，这让北京在地区危机或与美国的战争中有了更多筹码。

Chinese officials have been muted about the test and its implications. Not the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper controlled by the Communist Party.

中国官方对此次试验及其影响一直保持低调。但由中共控制的中国报纸《环球时报》没有这样做。

“Our national nuclear triad had another upgrade,” the paper said in an article on Tuesday.

该报在周二的一篇文章中称：“我国‘三位一体’核力量再升级。”

“The Liberation Army’s sea-based nuclear force is capable of carrying out stable, reliable strategic counterstrikes from anywhere in the vast open seas of the Pacific Ocean,” it said, citing a Chinese expert.

报道援引一位中国专家的观点称：“解放军海基核力量可在太平洋广阔公海任意点位，实施稳定、可靠的战略反击。”

That claim is hyperbole: China is still some way from operating nuclear-armed submarines undetected and wherever it likes. Even so, the test indicated that China is expanding its undersea nuclear ambitions, and shedding its reluctance to test missiles in international skies and oceans, despite the scrutiny and alarm such exercises set off, several experts said.

这一说法有些夸大其词：中国目前尚做不到在不被察觉的情况下随心所欲地让携带核武器的潜艇出海作业。尽管如此，多位专家表示，这次试验表明中国正在扩大其水下核雄心，并正在摆脱在国际领空和海域测试导弹的顾虑，而不顾此类演习所引发的密切注视与警惕。

“Most basically, China needed to technically validate its newest submarine-launched ballistic missile capability. But there was a broader message to the world — China now has a fully operational nuclear triad,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and a former China director in the National Security Council under President Obama. “China is probing the boundaries of U.S. defense strategy.”

“最根本的是，中国需要从技术上验证其最新的潜射弹道导弹能力。但这也是向世界传递一个更广泛的信息——中国现在已经拥有了完全具备作战能力的‘三位一体’核力量，”乔治城大学教授、奥巴马总统时期前白宫国家安全委员会中国事务主任麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)表示。“中国正在试探美国国防战略的边界。”

For decades, China kept a relatively modest nuclear arsenal — much smaller than those of the United States and Russia — and has usually tested its nuclear-capable missiles within its own land borders. This was only the third time that China has conducted a long-range test of a missile across the Pacific. The first was in 1980; the most recent in 2024.

几十年来，中国一直维持着相对精简的核武库——远小于美国和俄罗斯的规模——并且通常在其陆地国境之内测试具备核能力的导弹。这仅仅是中国第三次跨越太平洋进行长程导弹试验。第一次是在1980年；最近一次是在2024年。

But as China’s nuclear weapons multiply and diversify, and as Beijing grows more confident in its global status, more tests may come. This time, China’s leaders also may have been happy to send a warning to the region and to Washington: that Beijing is capable of projecting power in new and intimidating ways, some experts said.

但一些专家表示，随着中国核武器的数量激增和种类多元化，以及北京对自身全球地位的信心日益增强，未来可能会有更多的试验。这一次，中国领导人可能也乐于向该地区和华盛顿发出警告：北京有能力以一种全新的、具有威慑力的方式来彰显力量。

The location of the submarine that launched the missile was not immediately clear. Chinese maritime authorities had released notices on Monday warning about possible hazards in the seas off China’s northern and southeastern coasts.

发射导弹的潜艇具体位置目前尚不完全清楚。中国海事部门曾于周一发布航行警告，提醒注意中国北部和东南部沿海海域可能存在的危险。

Officials from two governments in the region said on the condition of anonymity that initial assessments indicated the missile was launched from the South China Sea, off southern China.

这两个地区的政府官员在要求匿名的情况下表示，初步评估显示导弹是从中国南部的南海海域发射的。

But other experts said the missile may have been launched near the Bohai Bay on the northeastern Chinese coast and arced southeast for more than 4,300 miles, landing in the sea off the Solomon Islands. (The Japanese government said the missile did not pass through Japan’s airspace or exclusive economic zone.)

但另一些专家表示，该导弹可能是从中国东北沿海的渤海湾附近发射的，并向东南方向飞行了4300多英里，最终坠落在所罗门群岛附近的海域。（日本政府表示，该导弹并未通过日本领空或专属经济区。）

“China is telling the world that it has a very large stick with which it will be able to dominate the Pacific,” said Justin Bassi, a former national security adviser in the Australian government who is now the executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.

位于堪培拉的澳大利亚战略政策研究所执行所长、前澳大利亚政府国家安全顾问贾斯汀·巴希表示：“中国是在告诉世界，它拥有一根非常粗大的大棒，足以用来在太平洋称霸。”

He noted China’s recent ire at Japan and Australia, including over Canberra’s recent security agreement with Fiji in the Pacific.

他提到了中国近期对日本和澳大利亚表达的愤怒，其中包括针对堪培拉最近与太平洋国家斐济签署的安全协议。

“China does not want the Australian and Japanese counter-influence, interference and coercion approach to be taken up by others in the region,” Mr. Bassi said.

“中国不希望澳大利亚和日本这种对抗影响力、干涉与遏制的手段被该地区的其他国家所效仿，”巴希说。

Racing to Catch Up

迎头赶上

Still, such tests take months of preparation, and the latest one was above all driven by the Chinese government’s desire to narrow the United States’ lead in sea-based nuclear forces, experts said. Even as China has rapidly expanded its land-based long-range missiles, its nuclear capabilities at sea have lagged.

专家们指出，尽管此类试验需要数月的准备时间，但最近这一次试验的动机主要还是源于中国政府渴望缩小与美国在海基核力量上的差距。尽管中国迅速扩张了其陆基远程导弹，但海上核能力一直相对滞后。

Nuclear submarines rely on quiet stealth for their menacing power; their goal is to evade detection, forcing adversaries to fear an unexpected strike from the depths. But for decades, Chinese nuclear submarines were notoriously noisy, sending out rumbles and squeaks that other navies could detect with sonar.

核潜艇的威慑力取决于它静音匿踪的能力，追求的是规避探测，迫使对手忌惮来自深海的未知突袭。但在过去几十年里，中国的核潜艇因噪音巨大而闻名，发出的轰鸣与吱嘎声很容易被其他国家的海军通过声呐探测到。

China is still some distance from matching the standards set by the United States and Russia in submarine stealth and submarine-based nuclear missiles.

相比美国和俄罗斯在潜艇隐身及潜射核导弹方面树立的标准，中国还有一些距离。

But the country has been investing heavily to close the gap, said Bruce Jones, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and the author of a forthcoming book, Sub War, about global undersea rivalry.

但布鲁金斯学会学者、即将出版的关于全球水下竞争的新书《潜艇战争》(Sub War)的作者布鲁斯·琼斯表示，中国一直在投入巨资以缩小这一差距。

“China is racing to catch up in quality, and poised to surge ahead in numbers,” he said. “It’s likely we’ll see more tests.”

“中国正在质量上奋起直追，并准备在数量上实现超越，”他说。“我们很可能会看到更多的试验。”

China has about 14 nuclear-powered submarines, including six that are nuclear-capable, Rear Adm. Mike Brookes, the commander of the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, told a congressional commission in March. The United States has around 70 nuclear submarines. But China has ramped up its production rates.

美国海军情报局局长麦克·布鲁克斯少将在今年3月向一个国会委员会表示，中国拥有大约14艘核动力潜艇，其中六艘具备核打击能力。美国拥有大约70艘核潜艇。但中国已经提升了其潜艇的生产速度。

It is unclear what submarine China fired the missile from, and what kind of missile it was. Beijing rarely releases such details.

目前尚不清楚中国是从哪艘潜艇上发射了这枚导弹，也不清楚是哪种类型的导弹。北京极少公布此类细节。

去年北京举行的重大阅兵上展示的巨浪-3型洲际弹道导弹。五角大楼曾表示，这些导弹已经装备在了094型潜艇上。

Some experts believe that the submarine was the Type 094 — China’s most advanced model in wide use — and that the missile was probably a JL-3, an intercontinental ballistic missile that China displayed at a big military parade last year. The Pentagon has said that the missiles have been installed on Type 094 submarines.

一些专家认为是094型潜艇——中国目前广泛使用的最先进型号——而所射导弹很可能是巨浪-3型，这是一种中国在去年一场重大阅兵式上展示过的洲际弹道导弹。五角大楼曾表示，这些导弹已经装备在了094型潜艇上。

China is building a new generation of submarines that will be stealthier than the Type 094, possibly approaching capabilities achieved by an advanced Russian model, Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, wrote in a study published this week.

美国海军战争学院教授安德鲁·埃里克森在本周发表的一项研究中写道，中国正在建造新一代潜艇，它们的隐身能力将比094型更强，可能已经接近俄罗斯的先进潜艇的能力。

“China’s quieting approach remains imperfect but is determined, comprehensive and improving,” Professor Erickson wrote, referring to the technology used to make submarines hard to detect. He emphasized his conclusions were his own, and did not represent the Naval War College or the U.S. Navy.

“中国的静音手段虽然仍不完美，但其执行很坚定、全面，并且在不断进步，”埃里克森在谈到使潜艇难以被探测的技术时写道。他强调，这些结论仅代表其个人观点，并不代表海军战争学院或美国海军。

More Tests Are Likely

未来可能进行更多试验

China is likely to conduct more testing of its submarine-based nuclear missiles by firing them into the Pacific Ocean, despite the criticism Monday’s test drew from Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Australia and the United States, said several experts.

几位专家表示，尽管周一的试验引来了日本、菲律宾、台湾、澳大利亚和美国的批评，但中国未来仍可能会通过向太平洋发射导弹来对其潜射核导弹进行更多测试。

“China conducts a lot of missile tests, but the overwhelming majority of them go toward the interior,” William Alberque, the former director of an arms control and disarmament center under NATO, wrote by email.

“中国进行了大量的导弹试验，但其中绝大多数都是面向其内陆腹地发射的，”北约前军控与裁军中心主任威廉·阿尔伯克通过电子邮件写道。

The United States conducts five to 10 tests of its Minuteman and Trident missiles over the Pacific every year, according to Mr. Alberque. Russia’s tests are conducted mostly from the Barents Sea, flying toward east Russia.

据阿尔伯克称，美国每年会在太平洋上空对其“民兵”和“三叉戟”导弹进行五到10次试验。而俄罗斯的试验主要是在巴伦支海进行，并飞向俄罗斯东部。

位于东北部城市青岛的中国海军博物馆。中国一直在投入巨资，以缩小其与竞争对手在潜艇能力上的差距。

China has previously conducted secret tests of submarine missiles in the Bohai Bay area, Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, wrote in an assessment of Monday’s test. Long-range tests allow missiles to be tested in conditions that resemble the heat and turbulence of real wartime trajectories.

亚洲协会中国分析中心高级研究员莱尔·莫里斯在对周一试验的一份评估中写道，中国此前曾在渤海湾地区进行过潜射导弹的秘密试验。长程试验能够让导弹在类似于真实战时轨迹的高温与气流扰动条件下接受检验。

The likely launch location of China’s latest test fits with its emerging “bastion” strategy for its submarine-launched nuclear missiles, wrote Mr. Alberque, now a senior analyst at Pacific Forum. Under that approach, China’s submarines lurk in seas close to its coast, protected by cordons of defense against detection and attack. From there, China’s JL-3 submarine-launched nuclear missiles could strike large parts of the U.S. west coast.

现任太平洋论坛高级分析师的阿尔伯克写道，中国的最新试验的可能发射阵位符合其正在成形的潜射核导弹“堡垒”战略。在这种策略下，中国的潜艇潜伏在靠近其海岸的海域，有层层防探测和防攻击保护。中国的巨浪-3型潜射核导弹可以在这些海域发射，打击美国西海岸的大部分地区。

In those bastions, Mr. Alberque wrote, “they’re reasonably sure they can’t be ‘got’ by the U.S. if they had to fire off the big beasts.”

阿尔伯克写道，在这些堡垒中，“他们有充分理由相信，如果必须发射这些‘庞然大物’，是不会被美国‘抓到’的。”

For many young Chinese, the future doesn’t look so great: The job market is dire, wages are falling and competition seems endless. To cope, some are recreating scenes from the early 2000s, when the economy was growing rapidly.

对许多中国年轻人来说，未来看起来并不那么美好：就业市场严峻、工资下降、竞争似乎永无止境。为了应对这种情况，有些人正在重现21世纪初经济快速增长时的场景。

They are sharing images online of internet cafes, high-rises covered in blue glass and unusual youth sub-cultures. Here is how one post reads:

他们在网上分享网吧、覆盖着蓝色玻璃的高楼以及不同寻常的青年亚文化的图像。其中一篇帖子内容如下：

You wake up to the sound of your mother’s voice. It’s a normal weekend in 2008.

你醒了？现在是2008年的一个平常的周末……早晨，妈妈叫你起床...

After breakfast, you accompany her to the hair salon. On the way, you pass buildings with blue windows.

吃过饭后，妈妈要你陪着去理发店。路过了一栋蓝色玻璃大楼。

She takes you to KFC for lunch, your favorite.

中午妈妈带你去吃了肯德基，真的好好吃啊。

You run into some strangely dressed people, who call themselves “Shamate.”

路上遇到了一些比较另类的人，好像叫“杀马特”。

Once it gets dark, you go home. You think to yourself, if only every day could be this happy.

天黑了要回家了。要是每天都能这样开心就好了。

In memes, animations, old photographs and retro playlists posted online, people are recalling brightly colored exercise equipment; the ping of QQ, an early messaging platform; traditional dark-wood living room furniture; and the song “Beijing Welcomes You” from when China hosted the 2008 Summer Olympics.

在网上发布的迷因、动画、老照片和复古歌单中，人们回忆色彩鲜艳的健身器材、早期即时通讯平台QQ的滴滴声、传统的深色木制客厅家具，以及中国举办2008年夏季奥运会时的歌曲《北京欢迎你》。

The trend has given rise to a digital subculture known as Chinese Dreamcore. It’s more than just nostalgia, online creators, artists and experts say. The genre serves as a “new type of digital pain reliever for young people in modern times,” as one blogger put it.

这一趋势催生了一种被称为“中式梦核”的数字亚文化。网络创作者、艺术家和专家表示，这不仅仅是怀旧。正如一位博主所言，这种类型成了“当代年轻人的新型数字止痛药”。

It is an aesthetic that echoes a nostalgia and dreaminess popular elsewhere, like the revival of 1980s style in the United States, captured in the fandom for shows like “Stranger Things.”

这种美学呼应了其他地方流行的怀旧和梦幻情怀，就像美国1980年代风格的复兴在《怪奇物语》(Stranger Things)等剧集的粉丝群体中得到体现。

On Chinese social media sites, posts described as Chinese Dreamcore often begin with the idea that one has traveled back in time to wake up in one’s childhood home.

在中国社交媒体网站上，被描述为“中式梦核”的帖子通常以穿越时空、在童年家中醒来的意向作为开头。

中国热门社交媒体应用小红书上，标签为“中式梦核”的帖子。

Posts tagged with Chinese Dreamcore from Xiaohongshu, a popular Chinese social media app.

来自中国热门社交媒体应用小红书上带有中式梦核标签的帖子。

Han Xiaoqiang, an associate professor at Southeast University in Nanjing who studies media, described such posts as a form of fantasy and wish fulfillment, a bit like Doraemon, the Japanese anime character who goes back in time to help his friend build a better future.

南京东南大学研究媒体的副教授韩晓强将这类帖子描述为一种幻想和愿望的满足，有点像日本动漫角色哆啦A梦——他回到过去，帮助朋友创造更美好的未来。

“They use nostalgia to return to a dream because they can’t change anything,” he said. “Their childhood dreams were brilliant, but as adults they find society isn’t what they expected,” he said.

“们用怀旧的方式回到过去的那种想像。他们什么都改变不了，”他说。“小时候的梦想是非常非常的灿烂的，但是他们成年之后发现，整个社会不是他们想像的那样。”

Chinese Dreamcore’s primary fans are from Generation Z, born in the late 1990s and 2000s. They witnessed the rise of the internet and China’s rapid transformation from a still-developing country to a major power, rivaling the United States. For many of them, scenes from their childhood had simply vanished.

“中式梦核”的主要粉丝群体来自出生于1990年代末和2000年代的Z世代。他们见证了互联网的崛起，以及中国从一个发展中国家迅速蜕变为可与美国抗衡的大国。对他们中的许多人来说，童年的场景已经完全不复存在。

In addition to grainy, low-resolution photos and videos of buildings and urban landscapes in the early 2000s, Chinese creators are also making eerie mash-ups of those familiar scenes — a reflection of the subconscious, hazy memories of one’s childhood.

除了2000年代初颗粒感强、低分辨率的建筑和城市景观照片与视频外，中国创作者还对这些熟悉的场景进行怪异的混搭——这反映了潜意识中模糊的童年记忆。

In a book of drawings published last year, Ai Kewei, a 35-year-old artist in Chengdu, combined memories from her childhood, like elephant-shaped playground slides and high-rise buildings topped with structures that she imagined to be alien spaceships. She remembers vividly the heat of the sun on long slow days; how everything around her was blue, including the water dispensers and the hand soap her family used.

在去年出版的一本画册中，35岁的成都艺术家艾可薇将童年记忆融合在一起，比如大象造型的游乐场滑梯，以及顶部带有她想象中外星飞船形状的摩天大楼。她清楚地记得漫长而悠闲的日子里灼热的阳光；记得周围的一切都是蓝色的，包括饮水机和家里用的洗手液。

Ms. Ai also recalls the sense of change once the internet arrived.

艾可薇还回想起互联网刚出现时那种变化的感觉。

When her family installed their first computer, she spent every day exploring the internet. “You didn’t know what would happen tomorrow,” she said. “Things were developing fast, but you felt the future was unpredictable and full of imagination.”

当她家安装了第一台电脑时，她每天都在探索互联网。“你不知道明天会发生什么，”她说。“那么发达，但是你就是觉得未来是不可预知的，充满各种想像的。”

Ms. Ai thinks that one reason people are attracted to Chinese Dreamcore is that they long for the simplicity of the dial-up era. “I think many people still miss the harmony and beauty of the early days of the internet — that feeling that the world would unite and that feeling of connection,” she said.

艾可薇认为，人们被“中式梦核”吸引的一个原因是他们怀念拨号上网时代的简单纯粹。“大家就是还是很想念从前那个互联网早期时代的那种和谐、那种美好，那种相信全球大家全世界会团结在一起的那种感觉，那种连接感，”她说。

For Li Haoran, who makes animations, her work is about saving parts of her childhood. The home where she grew up in Henan Province was demolished. She depicts scenes from the 2000s like swan-shaped pedal boats, as well as futuristic skyscrapers and buildings covered in the white tiles that were common at the time. These objects, she said, give her the “sensation of being hugged.”

对于制作动画的李昊冉来说，她的作品旨在保存童年记忆的片段。她在河南长大，老家已经被拆。她描绘了2000年代的场景，比如天鹅造型的脚踏船、充满未来感的摩天大楼和当时常见的覆盖着白色瓷砖的建筑。她说，这些物体给了她一种“小时候抱过我”的感觉。

“When I and many others see them, we feel a sense of familiarity,” she said.

“我或者是很多观众可能看了之后就会比较亲切，”她说。

The disappearance of those familiar and comforting hallmarks from the past is why Chinese Dreamcore is so emotionally resonant. Looking at these images, viewers “suddenly realize that they are losing something,” said Huang Heshan, a Beijing-based visual artist, whose series “Too Rich City” is seen as one of the early examples of Chinese Dreamcore.

正是过去那些熟悉和令人欣慰的标志的消失使“中式梦核” 在情感上如此引人共鸣。北京的视觉艺术家黄河山表示，看着这些图像，观众“发现自己正在失去某一些东西”。他的系列作品《秃力城》被视为“中式梦核”的早期例子之一。

Since the term began appearing on social media in the 2020s, Chinese Dreamcore has gone more mainstream. The aesthetic has appeared in video games, books, advertising campaigns, dinnerware at hot pot restaurants and packaging for medicine.

自从2020年代这个词开始出现在社交媒体上以来，“中式梦核” 已逐渐走向主流。这种美学已经出现在电子游戏、书籍、广告活动、火锅店的餐具以及药品包装中。

Some have taken a more literal approach to remembering the millennium. Liu Yujia, a 24-year-old photographer from Jilin, has traveled to more than 230 Chinese cities to capture architecture from the 2000s — a time when Chinese cities tried to outdo each other with new buildings that reflected an embrace of the future, sometimes to gaudy and strange effect. As a child, he stared in wonder at those buildings, which have steadily been replaced by sleeker and more modern versions.

有些人采取更直观的方式来记住千禧年。来自吉林的24岁摄影师刘育嘉走遍了230多个中国城市，拍摄2000年代的建筑——在那个时期，中国各城市竞相兴建新建筑，体现对未来的拥抱，有时会产生俗气和奇怪的效果。儿时的他曾对这些建筑充满好奇，而现在它们正逐步被更时尚、更现代的建筑所取代。

His photos include European-style castles, revolving restaurants and high-rises adorned with sci-fi-esque domes, geometric shapes, dramatic facades and, in one case, a large arrow — which he described in a caption as “pointing to the future.” Mr. Liu will spend a year traveling and photographing these buildings before they are gone.

他的照片包括欧式城堡、旋转餐厅，以及装饰着科幻风格的穹顶、几何形状和戏剧性立面的高楼大厦，其中一栋大楼上还矗立着一支巨大的箭头——他在图注中将其描述为“指向未来”。 刘育嘉打算花一年时间旅行并拍摄这些建筑，在它们消失之前留存影像。

China has not censored Chinese Dreamcore content, but state media have warned of the dangers of idealizing the past. An essay in a social sciences journal published by the Chinese province Gansu’s propaganda department said that, while Chinese Dreamcore provided an emotional outlet for China’s Generation Z, its “potential risks should not be ignored.”

中国还没有对“中式梦核”内容进行审查，但官方媒体已经警告过美化过去的危险。甘肃省委宣传部出版的一份社会科学期刊上的一篇文章称，虽然“中式梦核”为中国Z世代提供了情感宣泄的出口，但其“潜在风险仍不容忽视”。

“If Generation Z becomes uncontrollably immersed in the fantasy of Dreamcore, it could trigger cultural symptoms” such as existential crises and “hidden ideological threats” that could undermine young people’s development of “a healthy worldview and core values,” the article said in January.

这篇发表于1月的文章写道：“若Z世代情难自抑地沦陷于 ‘梦核’幻境，则有可能引发精神危机、审美困境、 资本操控、 意识形态安全隐患等文化症候， 影响其形成正确的世界观、 人生观、 价值观。”

While previous generations of Chinese artists used nostalgia and vintage iconography to criticize periods of political turmoil like the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, Chinese Dreamcore is to some relatively superficial.

虽然前几代中国艺术家曾经利用怀旧和复古的标志来批判1966-1976年的“文化大革命”等政治动荡时期，但一些人认为，“中式梦核”相对表面化。

“It’s more like a trendy hashtag,” Mr. Huang said. “How many people can truly extract something valuable and profound from this hashtag remains to be seen and depends on whether it inspires any lasting work.”

“它现在反而更像是一种在网络上流行的一个标签，”黄河山说。“至于能有多少人能真的把它里面的一些有价值的有深度的东西能做出来，这个就要看以后它能不能留下这样的作品。”

Ms. Ai, who returned to China after studying in Britain, argues that the point of Chinese Dreamcore is not to criticize this current moment in China, which she said was still full of opportunity and progress. To her, it is about addressing the sense of dislocation in the face of rapid technological change and uncertainty.

曾在英国留学后回国的艾可薇认为，“中式梦核”的重点不在于批评当下中国的现状，她说，当下的中国仍然充满机遇和进步。对她而言，“中式梦核”是为了应对快速的技术变革和不确定性之下产生的错位感。

“It is about trying to find like-minded people also navigating this state of confusion or vulnerability. It’s looking for a virtual space where everyone can be at ease for a minute,” she said. “It’s seeing one’s sadness and saying, ‘I have it too.’ That’s healing, isn’t it?”

“它只是在去寻找大家在去在一个这种迷惘或者说脆弱的过程中去寻找同类，寻找一个能暂时用几十秒或者一分钟让大家安心的一个虚拟空间吧，”她说。“你的忧伤我看到了，我也有。这才是一种治愈吧。”

Torrential rain and strong winds caused by Typhoon Maysak left at least 15 people dead in southern and central China, as the region braced for more extreme weather in the coming days.

由台风“美莎克”引发的暴雨和强风已导致中国南部和中部地区至少15人死亡，该地区在未来几天还将面临更多极端天气的考验。

Flooding in the southern Chinese city of Nanning, the capital of Guangxi Province, killed at least four people and forced nearly 62,000 to evacuate. Almost three days of heavy rain fell from Saturday morning to Monday evening, overwhelming rivers and reservoirs.

在广西壮族自治区首府南宁市，洪涝灾害已导致至少四人死亡，迫使近6.2万人紧急疏散。从周六上午到周一晚上，持续近三天的强降雨导致当地河流和水库水位暴涨，不堪重负。

In Hubei Province, 11 people were killed during severe storms and tornadoes on Monday.

在湖北省，周一发生的强风暴和龙卷风袭击已导致11人死亡。

China is experiencing intense weather events more frequently, a phenomenon that Chinese officials have linked to the effects of global warming. In addition, China’s Ministry of Emergency Management said last month that this year’s El Niño, a recurring weather pattern, may cause more extreme weather in the country this summer.

中国正越来越频繁地遭遇极端天气事件，中国官员将这一现象与全球变暖的影响联系在了一起。此外，中国应急管理部上个月表示，今年的厄尔尼诺现象（一种周期性气候模式）可能导致今年夏季中国出现更多极端天气。

Previous extreme events, including flooding that killed 31 residents of a nursing home in Beijing last year, have raised questions about the country’s emergency preparedness. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, on Tuesday ordered the authorities to “make every effort” in rescue and relief operations, treating the injured and resettling residents forced to leave their homes.

此前的极端天气事件——包括去年北京一家养老院遭遇洪水，导致31名居民遇难——引发了外界对中国应急预案能力的质疑。周二，中国国家领导人习近平指示相关部门“全力”进行救援和救灾，救治伤员并妥善安置被迫离开家园的居民。

Typhoon Maysak made landfall in the southern island province of Hainan on Friday, prompting officials to stop trains and ferries and close schools. On Saturday it swept into northern Vietnam, which borders Guangxi, then headed north.

台风“美莎克”上周五在南部岛屿省份海南登陆，促使官方暂停了火车和轮渡运行，并宣布学校停课。周六，台风席卷了与广西接壤的越南北部，随后一路北上。

Nanning’s deputy mayor said that the breach of two reservoirs in Hengzhou, a prefecture of Nanning, had caused “severe loss of life and property” for residents. Footage of one of those reservoirs, the Liulan reservoir, showed brown floodwaters rushing past a broken wall and directly toward residents’ homes.

南宁市副市长表示，南宁所辖的县级市横州市有两座水库决堤，给当地居民造成了“严重的生命和财产损失”。其中一座水库六蓝水库的现场画面显示，浑浊的褐色洪水冲破决口溃坝，直接向居民住宅奔涌而去。

Other videos showed inundated roads, farmland and buildings, including a school. In Guigang, another city in Guangxi, a wide road and the cars along it were submerged by floodwaters, which flowed in torrents downhill into a construction site.

其他视频显示，道路、农田和建筑（包括一所学校）都被洪水淹没。在广西的另一座城市贵港，一条宽阔的马路和路边的车辆已被淹没，汹涌的洪流顺着山坡倾泻进一个建筑工地。

In Hubei Province, where 11 people died, tornadoes, severe storms and winds of up to 90 miles per hour were recorded, according to the province’s Emergency Management Department, which said that one person was still missing.

据湖北省应急管理厅透露，气象部门记录到了龙卷风、强风暴以及高达约145公里/小时的强风。湖北省有11人死亡。该部门还表示，目前仍有一人失踪。

China’s National Meteorological Center said on Tuesday that the typhoon had weakened, but more than 10 inches of rain was still expected through Wednesday in parts of Guangxi as well as in the provinces of Jiangsu and Shandong in the east and Liaoning in the north. Weather officials also said there was a possibility of tornadoes in parts of Anhui province as well as in Jiangsu and Shandong.

中国中央气象台周二表示，台风强度已经减弱，但预计到周三，广西部分地区、东部的江苏省、山东省和北部的辽宁省仍将有超过约254毫米的降雨。气象官员还警告，安徽、江苏和山东的部分地区有可能出现龙卷风。

A Category 5 super typhoon, named Typhoon Bavi, lashed Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with powerful winds and heavy rain on Monday and is moving toward southeastern China. It is expected to pass near Taiwan on Friday and make landfall near the border of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces on Saturday, according to China’s National Meteorological Center.

与此同时，一个名为“巴威”的五级超强台风于周一袭击了关岛和北马里亚纳群岛，带来强风暴雨，目前正向中国东南部海域移动。据中央气象台预测，“巴威”预计将于周五掠过台湾附近海域，并于周六在浙江和福建两省交界处附近登陆。

Nutritionally speaking, mushrooms are in a class of their own.

从营养学角度来说，蘑菇独树一帜。

As members of the fungi kingdom, mushrooms contain forms of fiber that most other plants don’t have, along with high levels of antioxidants. And fun fact: They’re one of the few foods that can produce vitamin D.

作为真菌王国的成员，蘑菇含有大多数植物所没有的特殊膳食纤维，同时富含抗氧化物质。有趣的是，蘑菇还是极少数能够自行生成维生素D的食物之一。

Here’s a look at what mushrooms have to offer, along with ways to enjoy them from New York Times Cooking.

以下是蘑菇的营养价值盘点，以及《纽约时报》美食版提供的几种烹饪参考。

They have two unique types of fiber.

蘑菇含有两种独特的膳食纤维。

Mushrooms have a good amount of fiber, particularly a type known as beta-glucan, said Dr. Arrigo Cicero, the director of the School on Human Nutrition at the University of Bologna in Italy.

意大利博洛尼亚大学人类营养学院院长阿里戈·西塞罗博士表示，蘑菇富含膳食纤维，尤其是一种名为β-葡聚糖的纤维。

Beta-glucan is commonly found in grains like oats and barley and is tied to lower cholesterol levels and reduced blood sugar spikes. But mushrooms contain an unusual type of beta-glucan that seems to support the immune system instead, Dr. Cicero said.

β-葡聚糖常见于燕麦、大麦等谷物中，有助于降低胆固醇水平、减缓血糖波动。但西塞罗博士指出，蘑菇所含的β-葡聚糖属于一种较为特殊的类型，其主要作用似乎在于支持人体免疫系统。

Mushrooms also contain chitin, a fiber mainly found in the shells of insects and crustaceans. Because chitin isn’t easily digested, it makes its way to the colon, where it can help support the gut microbiome.

蘑菇还含有几丁质，这是一种主要存在于昆虫和甲壳类动物外壳中的纤维。由于几丁质不易消化，它会一路抵达结肠，在那里为肠道微生物群提供支持。

Most Americans don’t get enough fiber, but eating more mushrooms can be an easy way to boost your consumption and diversify the sources, said Meghan Laszlo, a cancer dietitian at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles. There are about four grams of fiber in roughly one cup of raw shiitake mushrooms; experts recommend 21 to 38 grams daily, depending on your age and sex.

洛杉矶西达赛奈医疗中心癌症营养师梅根·拉斯洛表示，大多数美国人膳食纤维摄入不足，多吃蘑菇是一种简便易行的补充方式，同时也能丰富膳食纤维的来源。大约一杯鲜香菇中含有约四克膳食纤维；专家建议每日摄入21至38克，具体取决于年龄和性别。

They contain powerful antioxidants.

蘑菇含有强效抗氧化物质。

Mushrooms are exceptionally rich in ergothioneine and glutathione, two important antioxidants that help your cells defend against everyday wear and tear, said Robert Beelman, the director of the Center for Plant and Mushroom Foods for Health at Penn State.

宾夕法尼亚州立大学植物与蘑菇食品健康中心主任罗伯特·比尔曼表示，蘑菇中麦角硫因和谷胱甘肽含量极高，这是两种重要的抗氧化剂，能帮助人体细胞抵御日常损耗。

While our bodies can produce glutathione, we get ergothioneine only from food, and mushrooms — enoki and king oyster, in particular — have some of the highest levels of any food.

谷胱甘肽可由人体自行合成，但麦角硫因只能从食物中获取，蘑菇——尤其是金针菇和杏鲍菇——的麦角硫因含量在所有食物中名列前茅。

In one study that tracked more than 3,000 participants over 21 years, higher ergothioneine levels in the blood were linked to a lower risk of heart disease and early death. Other research has found that people with mild cognitive impairment and frailty tend to have low levels of ergothioneine. While the findings don’t prove that ergothioneine is directly responsible for these health effects, they align with the idea that antioxidants shield cells from damage and support immune function, Dr. Beelman said.

一项追踪了3000多名参与者、历时21年的研究发现，血液中较高水平的麦角硫因与较低的心脏病风险及早逝风险相关。另有研究发现，患有轻度认知障碍和体弱人群往往麦角硫因水平偏低。比尔曼博士指出，尽管上述发现并不能证明麦角硫因直接导致了这些健康效应，但它们与抗氧化物质保护细胞免受损伤、支持免疫功能的理论相吻合。

This may also be why some research has tied higher mushroom consumption to a lower risk of cancer, Ms. Laszlo said.

拉斯洛表示，这也可能正是部分研究发现较高蘑菇摄入量与较低癌症风险存在关联的原因。

They’re rich in B vitamins and can make vitamin D.

蘑菇富含B族维生素，还能够生成维生素D。

Mushrooms are good sources of several B vitamins that are important for metabolism and supporting your nervous system, Ms. Laszlo said.

拉斯洛说，蘑菇富含多种B族维生素，这些维生素对人体新陈代谢和神经系统健康很重要。

And they can produce vitamin D — a trick almost no other food can pull off. Vitamin D is important for immune function, heart health and muscle strength, but it’s naturally found in very few foods. Most mushrooms in the grocery store don’t contain much of it either, since they’re typically grown in the dark. “But if your mushrooms sunbathe, they can produce vitamin D like humans can,” said Dr. Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King’s College London.

此外，蘑菇还能生成维生素D——这几乎是独家本领。维生素D对于免疫功能、心脏健康和肌肉力量都非常重要，但天然富含维生素D的食物其实很少。超市里出售的大多数蘑菇维生素D含量并不高，因为它们一般是在黑暗环境下种植的。伦敦国王学院流行病学家蒂姆·斯佩克特博士说：“但如果让蘑菇晒晒太阳，它们就能像人类一样生成维生素D。”

To try it, place your mushrooms outside in direct sunlight before cooking them, Ms. Laszlo said. Aim for anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour, and slice your mushrooms beforehand, to expose more surface area. Under the right conditions, a cup of raw mushrooms can generate enough vitamin D to satisfy the recommended daily amount.

拉斯洛建议，在烹饪之前，将蘑菇放到阳光直射处晒15分钟到1小时。最好先将蘑菇切片，以增大与阳光的接触面积。在适宜条件下，一杯鲜蘑菇所产生的维生素D就足以满足人体每日推荐摄入量。

What’s the healthiest way to eat them?

怎样吃蘑菇最健康？

While some specialty mushrooms may be higher in certain nutrients, all varieties are good, Dr. Spector said. “It’s probably more important to eat them regularly — the ones you can afford — rather than having a big feast of your expensive ones,” he added.

斯佩克特博士表示，虽然某些蘑菇的某些营养成分更高，但所有种类的蘑菇都是健康的。“与其偶尔大吃一顿价格昂贵的蘑菇，不如经常吃那些自己买得起的蘑菇，这可能更重要。”他说。

Just remember that some mushrooms are poisonous, so make sure you know what you’re eating before you dig in.

不过，需要记住的是，有些蘑菇是有毒的，食用前务必确认种类。

Mushrooms are low in calories and fat but rich in savory flavor. Lightly roasting, sautéing or grilling them deepens their umami — and means you can lean less on salt. Avoid cooking them over prolonged high heat, which can degrade some nutrients, Dr. Spector said.

蘑菇热量和脂肪含量都很低，但味道鲜美。轻度烘烤、快速翻炒或炙烤都能进一步提鲜，这样你也可以少放点盐。斯佩克特博士建议，不要长时间高温烹调，因为那样会破坏一些营养成分。

Dried mushrooms are another good option — just look for freeze-dried versions, since heat drying can strip away some antioxidants, Ms. Laszlo said. Or try adding mushroom powder to pasta sauce or smoothies, but note that the nutritional content of these powders can vary.

干蘑菇也是不错的选择——拉斯洛建议优先选用冻干产品，因为热风干燥工艺会使部分抗氧化物质流失。也可以将蘑菇粉加入意面酱或奶昔中，但需注意的是，不同蘑菇粉的营养成分可能差异较大。

Ready to put all this into practice? Here are some recipes from NYT Cooking.

准备好付诸实践了吗？以下是《纽约时报》美食版的一些食谱。

1. Harissa-Maple Mushrooms

1. 哈里萨辣酱枫糖烤蘑菇

David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Roasting mushrooms concentrates their earthy flavor. Served over seasoned yogurt with a side of flatbread, this recipe is hearty enough to be a main dish.