As armed Chinese ships expand patrols around Taiwan, officials in Taipei are more urgently testing how they would keep fuel and other vital supplies flowing if Beijing tried to choke off the island.

随着中国武装船只不断扩大在台湾周边的巡航范围，台北方面的官员正在加紧测试：如果北京试图封锁台湾，他们要如何确保燃料和其他关键物资持续供应。

China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has in recent years rehearsed a blockade, using naval ships and military planes to practice sealing off access to Taiwan.

中国宣称台湾是其领土，近年来已多次演练对台封锁，通过海军舰艇和军机切断台湾的对外通道。

Taiwan relies on imports of fossil fuels for about 95 percent of its energy, and natural gas fuels half of its power generation. And the global shocks caused by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran have highlighted the importance of securing energy supplies.

台湾约95%的能源依赖化石燃料进口，半数的发电量来自天然气。美以对伊朗战争期间霍尔木兹海峡受阻所引发的全球冲击凸显了保障能源供应的重要性。

Officials in Taiwan are exploring whether floating gas storage and processing terminals, emergency stockpiles, or even reviving nuclear power could help keep the island running in a crisis.

台湾官员正在探讨浮式天然气储存和处理终端、应急战略储备，乃至重启核能是否有助于帮助该岛在危机中维持运转。

They have held so-called tabletop, or wargaming, exercises to address a siege scenario, and are planning to conduct drills to escort and reroute ships to port and to store and distribute supplies on Taiwan, four officials said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.

四名官员表示，相关部门已就围困情境举行了所谓桌上兵棋推演，演练为船只护航、调整航线入港，以及在台湾岛内储存和分发物资。因涉及政府内部讨论，上述官员要求匿名。

Worries about the threats posed by China have sharpened since last month, when Beijing announced its coast guard ships would conduct “routine law-enforcement patrols” in the waters east of Taiwan. That expanse of ocean matters because it is where Taiwan would most likely look for the United States and its allies to bring military and economic relief if China attacked.

对中国威胁的忧虑在上月进一步加剧，当时北京宣布，中国海警船将在台湾东部海域开展“常态化执法巡逻”。这片海域至关重要，因为一旦中国发动攻击，台湾很可能会指望美国及其盟友通过这里提供军事和经济援助。

Preparing for an Energy Squeeze

为能源封锁做准备

Keeping power plants supplied during a Chinese blockade would be daunting. Taiwan maintains at least 11 days’ worth of natural gas reserves, and has the capacity to store enough for up to 20 days.

如果中国实施封锁，要确保发电厂持续获得燃料供应将是一项艰巨任务。台湾维持着至少11天的天然气储备，并具备足够20天用量的能力。

“We’ve constantly conducted exercises on these national security topics, figuring out how to handle different scenarios,” Chen Chung-hsien, a deputy director-general of Taiwan’s Energy Administration, said in an interview. “We certainly view matters using worst-case scenarios.”

“我们一直都在对这些国安议题做演练，针对不同情境我们要怎么样处理，”台湾能源署副署长陈崇宪在接受采访时表示。“我们一定会用最坏的情况来看这个事情。”

Taiwan is exploring acquiring ships for storing and processing natural gas off shore, to provide additional capacity and for emergencies, Mr. Chen said.

陈崇贤表示，台湾正在研究采购可在近海储存和处理天然气的船舶，以增加储存能力，并备应急之需。

Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party who focuses on national security issues, said such ships could give Taiwan “more flexibility for how natural gas is received and dispatched” if China tries to seal off the island and threaten its infrastructure.

台湾执政的民进党立法委员陈冠廷长期关注国家安全议题。他表示，如果中国试图封锁台湾并威胁基础设施，这类船舶可以让台湾“增加天然气接收与调度的弹性”。

台北一场关于中国在台湾周边举行军演的新闻发布会。

But finding safer gas reception sites remains a big challenge.

然而，寻找更安全的天然气接受地点仍是一大难题。

Taiwan’s three terminals for receiving and storing liquefied natural gas are on the island’s west, where they would be highly exposed to attack or harassment from China during a crisis. The east coast is forbiddingly mountainous, with relatively narrow roads and small ports with no infrastructure for taking delivery from hulking natural gas tankers, or generating and distributing power from the gas.

台湾三座液化天然气接收和储存终端均位于岛屿西岸，一旦危机爆发，极易遭受中国的攻击或骚扰。东岸山势险峻，道路相对狭窄，港口规模较小，既无法停靠巨型天然气运输船，也缺乏利用天然气发电和输电所需的相关基础设施。

“The eastern region wouldn’t necessarily be the best solution,” said Mr. Chen, the energy official. “A floating pier on the west coast is more plausible, closer to existing power plants anyway.”

“东部不见得是个很好的办法，”能源官员陈崇贤说。“如果是浮动码头在西岸的话比较有可能，反倒是比较方便你就近接近那些存在发电厂。”

Taiwan’s government is also weighing whether to reverse its closure of nuclear power plants, which could be one source of stable power.

台湾政府也正在评估是否推翻此前关闭核电站的决定，因为核电可能成为稳定电力供应的来源之一。

Craig Singleton, the China program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said his group held a tabletop exercise about a Chinese “energy siege” of Taiwan last year with senior Taiwanese officials and company leaders. It was clear that “Taiwan urgently needed to diversify both its energy suppliers and the means by which those supplies reach the island before a crisis,” he said.

华盛顿智库保卫民主基金会中国项目高级主任克雷格·辛格尔顿表示，该机构去年曾与台湾高级官员及企业领袖共同举行了一次有关中国对台“能源封锁”的桌上推演。他说，推演结果清楚显示：“台湾迫切需要在危机爆发前，实现能源供应来源和运输方式的多元化。”

China’s Threat to Taiwan’s East

中国对台湾东部的威胁

Even as they grapple with the threat of invasion, Taiwan’s officials are preparing for a murkier kind of coercion, in which Chinese government ships warn, restrict or even board cargo vessels approaching Taiwan.

在应对入侵威胁的同时，台湾官员如今也开始为另一种更加模糊的胁迫方式做准备——中国政府船只向驶近台湾的货船发出警告、实施限制，甚至登船检查。

The ships China has positioned on Taiwan’s east coast are part of what officials call “gray zone” tactics — hardball actions that fall short of outright warfare. Such muscle-flexing is hard for Taiwan to counter without risking retaliation from China.

中国部署在台湾东海岸的船只是官员们所称的“灰色地带”战术的一部分——即未达到全面战争程度的强硬行动。面对这种炫耀武力的行为，若台湾进行反制，稍有不慎便可能招致中国的报复。

Beijing has declared its jurisdiction over the waters in that area, a claim Taiwan rejects. In an early sign of how China could use its presence to assert its claims, a Chinese government ship stationed east of Taiwan radioed three passing cargo ships to request information, including about the crew members onboard.

北京宣称对这一海域拥有管辖权，但台湾对此予以否认。关于中国会如何利用它在该海域的存在来强化主权主张，一个早期信号已经出现：一艘部署在台湾东部海域的中国政府船只曾通过无线电联系三艘经过的货轮，要求它们提供包括船员信息在内的相关资料。

“What they did east of Taiwan was partly a very initial exercise to model a quarantine, meaning an operation to inspect and possibly turn back ships at sea,” said Lai I-chung, the president of the Prospect Foundation, a foreign policy institute in Taipei.

台北外交政策智库远景基金会执行长赖怡忠表示：“他们在台湾东部所做的，某种程度上是一次初步的隔离演练，也就是在海上对船只进行检查，并可能命令其掉头返航的行动。”

China’s navy regularly places about seven or eight naval ships around Taiwan, including off the island’s east coast, according to Taiwanese security officials.

据台湾安全官员介绍，中国海军通常会在台湾周边部署约七八艘军舰，其中包括台湾以东海域。

“But now we’re also seeing more and more of the China Coast Guard,” Mr. Lai said, noting he was speaking in a personal capacity. The increased presence of the coast guard — a paramilitary force with large, heavily armed ships — would increase Beijing’s choices to put pressure on Taiwan.

“但现在我们也看到越来越多的中国海警船，”赖怡忠说，并强调这是以个人身份发言。海警是装备大型重武装船只的准军事力量，它的存在规模不断扩大，将为北京向台湾施压提供更多选项。

5月，台湾总统赖清德在台北发表执政两周年谈话。

During a tabletop simulation late last month, President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan and his senior officials worked through a scenario in which Beijing demanded that cargo ships seek its approval before approaching Taiwan and sent coast guard ships to board, inspect and seize vessels. (In 2024, a Chinese coast guard patrol briefly boarded a Taiwanese ferry.)

在上月底举行的一次兵棋推演中，台湾总统赖清德及其高级官员演练了这样一个情景：北京要求所有驶往台湾的货轮必须事先获得中国批准，并派遣海警船实施登船检查，甚至扣押船只。（2024年，中国海警曾短暂登上一艘台湾渡轮进行检查。）

Lii Wen, a Taiwanese national security official who described the exercise in a speech afterward, said that it “helped to pinpoint shortcomings in current response measures” and heightened attention on improving coordination between agencies on issues such as ensuring energy supplies. He declined a request for an interview.

台湾国家安全官员李问在随后介绍此次推演的讲话中表示，这场推演“有助于辨识现有应处措施不足之处”，并强化了各机构在确保能源供应等问题上加强协调的意识。他拒绝了本文的采访请求。

The Ministry of the Interior, which helped organize the June simulation, announced this year that it was planning disaster response drills on the east coast of Taiwan in September that would test receiving international medical teams and supplies.

协助组织今年6月推演的台湾内政部宣布，计划于今年9月在台湾东海岸举行防灾演练，测试接收国际医疗队和救援物资的能力。

Other exercises will most likely train officials from the ministries for the interior, economic affairs and agriculture to work together on distributing supplies within Taiwan. Escorting of ships approaching Taiwan would fall under its Navy and Coast Guard.

其他演练则可能侧重于训练内政部、经济部和农业部官员协调在全台分配物资。对驶近台湾船只的护航任务将由海军和海巡署承担。

China Is Ramping Up Tactics Short of War

中国正在升级低于战争门槛的战术

The Chinese coast guard ships currently off Taiwan’s east seem to be serving a mostly symbolic role for now. But that could change, Ryan D. Martinson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said in emailed comments, also speaking in his personal capacity.

目前在台湾东部海域的中国海警船只似乎主要发挥象征性作用。但这种状况可能改变，美国海军战争学院副教授瑞安·马丁森透过电子邮件发表的评论中表示。他也指出这是以个人身份发言。

“Once the ships are out there on a consistent basis, Beijing is in a better position to take more forceful actions against Taiwan,” he wrote.

“一旦这些船只持续出现在那里，北京就处于更有利的位置，可以对台湾采取更强硬的行动，”他写道。

The two coast guard ships China sent to Taiwan’s east this month weigh 3,000 and 4,000 metric tons, far larger than the coast guard boats Taiwan sent to shadow them. Ships from the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration, which regulates civilian shipping, also took part in recent actions in the same area.

本月中国派往台湾东部的两艘海警船排水量分别达到3000吨和4000吨，远远大于台湾派出进行伴航监视的海巡船。中国海事局——负责监管民用航运的政府机构——所属船只，近期也参与了该海域的相关行动。

Chinese government ships sailed near Taiwan’s main island 85 times during May and June, compared with 45 times in the same period last year, the Taiwan Coast Guard has estimated.

台湾海巡署估计，今年五六月间，中国政府船只在台湾本岛附近活动达85次，而去年同期仅为45次。

Coast guard ships come under Chinese military command and have been increasingly integrated in military exercises near Taiwan, said Julia Famularo, a lecturer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa who studies China’s maritime operations.

研究中国海上行动的夏威夷大学马诺阿分校讲师傅美珠(Julia Famularo)表示，海警船受中国军队指挥，并越来越多地参与在台湾附近的军事演习中。

The pressure from Beijing could increase before and after 2028, when Taiwan holds its next presidential election, said Taiwanese officials and experts.

台湾官员和专家表示，在2028年台湾举行下一次总统选举前后，来自北京的压力可能会增加。

“I think these gray zone measures will definitely become more and more intense,” said Jing Yuan-chou, an adjunct professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan, who studies China’s military strategy toward Taiwan.

“我觉得那个灰色地带手段的强烈程度一定会越来越高，”研究中国对台军事战略的台湾淡江大学兼任教授荆元宙表示。

“For now, they prefer nibbling away at us, piece by piece,” Mr. Jing said. “But the nibbling lays the way for if they ever want to try to devour us.”

他说：“目前，他们偏好蚕食，一步一步蚕食，而蚕食是为万一要鲸吞做准备。”

The authorities in Belgium said on Saturday that a Canadian intern at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military headquarters had been arrested on suspicion of spying for another country.

比利时当局周六表示，，一名在北大西洋公约组织军事总部实习的加拿大籍实习生因涉嫌为他国从事间谍活动而被捕。

The Belgian Federal Prosecutor’s Office said the woman was “of Chinese origin” and was arrested on Friday. “She is suspected of spying on behalf of a third country and of being a member of a criminal organization,” it said in a statement, which did not identify the country or the criminal organization.

比利时联邦检察官办公室表示，该名女子为“华裔”，于周五被捕。该办公室在声明中称：“她涉嫌代表第三国从事间谍活动，并涉嫌参与犯罪组织。”声明中未透露该国或该犯罪组织的具体名称。

The intern was first flagged by the security services at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, or SHAPE, which is near Mons, Belgium. The case was then referred to Belgian intelligence and a police investigation was launched, the federal prosecutor’s office said.

这名实习生最初被位于比利时蒙斯附近的欧洲盟军最高司令部(SHAPE)的安全部门发现可疑。联邦检察官办公室表示，此案随后被移交给比利时情报部门，警方随即展开调查。

That investigation led to searches of the woman’s home and place of work on Thursday, and a judge decided to place her under arrest on Friday, the prosecutor’s office said, adding in its statement that it would not comment further on the case.

检察官办公室称，调查过程中，警方于周四搜查了这名女子的住所和工作场所，法官决定于周五对其下达逮捕令，并在声明中补充说，不会对此案作进一步评论。

Canada’s Foreign Ministry and the Canadian Embassy in Brussels did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Saturday.

加拿大外交部及加拿大驻布鲁塞尔大使馆在周六没有立即回应置评请求。

SHAPE, which plans and executes NATO’s military operations, was cooperating with the Belgian authorities, said Col. Martin O’Donnell, a SHAPE spokesman.

SHAPE负责规划和执行北约军事行动，其发言人马丁·奥唐奈上校表示，该机构正在与比利时当局合作。

“At this time, there is no indication that NATO or SHAPE operational readiness, command and control arrangements, or ongoing tasks have been adversely affected,” he said in a statement.

他在声明中表示：“目前，没有任何迹象表明北约或SHAPE的战备状态、指挥和控制安排，以及正在进行的任务受到了不利影响。”

Last month, China blacklisted two American companies crucial to U.S. efforts to create a supply chain for making powerful rare earth magnets.

上月，中国将两家对美国建立强力稀土磁体供应链至关重要的美国公司列入黑名单。

On Friday, Beijing took similar action against even more companies in Europe.

周五，北京对欧洲更多公司采取了类似行动。

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it had banned any further shipment to 14 companies in the European Union of “dual-use” materials or products — items that China describes as potentially having both military and civilian applications. As a result, the companies may struggle to buy many of the critical minerals they need to make products like rare-earth magnets and semiconductors, which are essential for cars, offshore wind turbines, robots, drones and other advanced manufacturing applications.

中国商务部宣布，已禁止向14家欧盟公司进一步运送“两用”材料或产品——中国将这些物品描述为具有潜在的军事和民用双重用途。受此影响，这些公司可能难以采购制造稀土磁体和半导体等产品所需的许多关键矿物，而这些产品对于汽车、海上风力涡轮机、机器人、无人机和其他先进制造应用来说是必不可少的。

Over the past 16 months, China has used its dominance over the mining and processing of rare earths as leverage in economic disputes with trading partners.

在过去的16个月里，中国利用其在稀土开采和加工方面的主导地位作为与贸易伙伴在经济争端中的筹码。

In a statement on Friday, the Commerce Ministry noted that it had acted one day after the European Union imposed sanctions on 14 companies in mainland China and Hong Kong in connection with Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The European Union said these companies, along with 24 Russian companies and 10 firms elsewhere, were “entities that are part of or support Russia’s military-industrial complex or enable the circumvention of E.U. sanctions.”

在周五的声明中，中国商务部指出，采取此项行动的前一日，欧盟刚刚对中国大陆和香港的14家公司实施了与俄罗斯在乌克兰战争相关的制裁。欧盟表示，这些公司连同24家俄罗斯公司和10家其他地区的企业都是“属于或支持俄罗斯军工复合体，或为规避欧盟制裁提供便利的实体”。

Many of the European companies targeted by China play a crucial role in turning rare-earth metals and other critical minerals, like antimony and tungsten, into alloys and specialty chemicals that manufacturers need.

许多被中国列入目标名单的欧洲公司在将稀土金属和锑、钨等关键矿物转化为制造商所需的合金和特种化学品方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

Also on China’s list was Germany’s largest defense contractor, Rheinmetall, which has been central to Germany’s effort to rearm after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Military hardware uses a lot of superhard tungsten and some rare earths.

中国的名单上还包括德国最大的国防承包商莱茵金属公司，2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后，该公司对德国寻求重新武装的努力起到了核心作用。军事设备需使用大量的超硬钨和部分稀土。

Critical minerals have received growing attention in the West, especially since China imposed export restrictions in late 2024 on four critical but obscure minerals: tungsten, antimony, gallium and germanium. China then put export restrictions in April last year on seven kinds of rare-earth metals that are crucial to a very wide range of manufacturing, and has announced plans to impose restrictions in November on five more kinds of rare-earth metals.

关键矿产在西方受到的关注日益增加，尤其是自中国在2024年底对钨、锑、镓和锗这四种关键但鲜为人知的矿物实施出口限制以来。中国又在去年4月对广泛制造业至关重要的七种稀土金属实施了出口限制，并宣布计划在11月对另外五种稀土金属实施限制。

The Trump administration and the European Union are each trying to build mines for critical minerals and construct refineries that can turn ore into pure mineral powders and eventually into strong metal alloys. The production process is complex and can be dirty: Converting the powders into metals involves sometimes toxic chemicals.

特朗普政府和欧盟都在努力建设关键矿物矿山，并建造能够将矿石转化为纯矿物粉末、最终转化为坚固金属合金的精炼厂。生产过程很复杂，而且可能产生污染：将粉末转化为金属有时涉及有毒化学物质。

Almost all of the world’s capacity for rare-earth-metal conversion and alloy making is in China. Many of the European companies targeted by China on Friday are small and medium-size enterprises that hold what little expertise remains outside China for the advanced processing of critical minerals.

全球几乎所有的稀土金属转化和合金制造产能都在中国。周五被中国针对的许多欧洲公司都是中小型企业，它们掌握着中国以外仅存的关键矿物高级加工专业知识。

One of the companies on China’s list is Germany’s Sindlhauser Materials. Sindlhauser’s website says it makes yttrium alloys with zircon. Yttrium and samarium have been the two kinds of rare earths in shortest supply outside China after Beijing imposed export controls, with prices rising as much as a hundredfold.

德国的辛德豪瑟材料公司是被列在中国名单上的公司之一。该公司网站显示，它能制造含锆的钇合金。在北京实施出口管制后，钇和钐成为中国以外供应最短缺的两种稀土，价格最高曾上涨百倍。

Yttrium alloys with zircon are used in making advanced semiconductors. Makers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment have been complaining for months about acute shortages of yttrium compounds.

含锆的钇合金被用于制造先进半导体。几个月来，半导体制造设备的制造商一直在抱怨钇化合物的严重短缺。

Sindlhauser declined to comment on China’s action.

辛德豪瑟拒绝就中国的行动置评。

Another company restricted by China was one of Europe’s premier manufacturers of custom-designed electric motors with powerful rare-earth magnets inside, Italy’s Lafert Group. Lafert’s motors power many of the robots and other industrial automation in Europe’s factories.

另一家受中国限制的公司是欧洲首屈一指的定制电机制造商——意大利的拉法特集团，其产品内部装有强力稀土磁体。拉法特的电机为欧洲工厂中的许多机器人和其他工业自动化设备提供动力。

Beijing has been encouraging multinationals to move more of their supply chains into China, including buying electric motors from Chinese companies. While Beijing has severely restricted exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets, it has allowed unrestricted exports of fully assembled electric motors with the rare-earth magnets already inside.

北京一直鼓励跨国公司将其更多供应链转移到中国，包括向中国公司购买电机。虽然北京严格限制了稀土和稀土磁体的出口，但却允许无限制地出口内部已装有稀土磁体的完整组装电机。

Rheinmetall and Lafert did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

莱茵金属和拉法特没有立即回应置评请求。

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China has previously criticized the very broad dual-use designations on many critical minerals like those that China cited to restrict sales to the 14 European companies on Friday.

中国欧盟商会此前曾批评，许多关键矿产的“两用”认定范围过于宽泛，例如中国上周五援引的、用于限制向14家欧洲公司销售的那些矿产。

Inside a hushed hall in Tokyo on a recent afternoon, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan stood before a giant portrait of her mentor, Shinzo Abe, the slain Japanese leader, and bowed.

近日的一个下午，在东京一座安静的大厅里，日本首相高市早苗站在她的恩师、遇刺身亡的日本领导人安倍晋三的巨幅画像前，鞠躬致敬。

It had been four years since Mr. Abe, a giant in Japanese politics and the country’s longest-serving prime minister, was shot and killed while giving a speech outside a train station. Ms. Takaichi, his protégé, had come to pay her respects — and to vow to carry on his vision. She told the crowd of right-wing politicians, activists, journalists and business leaders that she sometimes still imagined him sitting on the couch of the prime minister’s office.

安倍晋三是日本政坛巨头，也是该国在任时间最长的首相。他在车站外发表演讲时遇刺身亡，至今已过去四年。作为他的门生，高市早苗前来致哀，誓言继承他的遗志。她告诉在场的右翼政治人士、活动人士、记者和商界领袖，她有时仍会想象他坐在首相办公室的沙发上。

“I could never fill Prime Minister Abe’s shoes; my days are filled with nothing but criticism when compared to him,” she said. “Even so, I want to be a fighter politician like him. I tell myself that I must be.”

“我永远无法取代安倍首相；与他相比，我的每一天都充斥着批评，”她说。“即便如此，我也想成为像他一样不停奋战的政治家。我告诉自己，我必须做到。”

2014年，高市早苗（中）与安倍晋三在东京合影。

Since winning election nine months ago, Ms. Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, has frequently leveraged her ties to Mr. Abe to rally support for her nationalist agenda, often referring to him and his policies in major speeches.

自九个月前赢得选举以来，日本首位女首相高市早苗频繁利用她与安倍的关系来为她的民族主义议程争取支持，并经常在重要演讲中提及他以及他的政策。

She has hailed his vision of a more muscular Japan that is a driving force for strength and stability across Asia. She has invoked his legacy to call for greater military spending and the establishment of Japan’s first intelligence agency since World War II. She has dropped his name while wooing foreign leaders such as President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.

她赞扬安倍晋三关于建立一个更强大的日本并使之成为整个亚洲力量与稳定驱动力的愿景。她援引他的政治遗产，呼吁增加军事开支，并建立日本自二战以来的首个情报机构。在争取特朗普总统和印度总理莫迪等外国领导人的支持时，她也曾提及他的名字。

Yet Mr. Abe remains a divisive figure in Japan because of his break with decades of postwar pacifism; his support for changing how the country’s World War II-era history is taught in schools; and a rise in economic inequality during his tenure. His killing, by a 41-year-old man who was protesting the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ties to the Unification Church, a fringe religious group, prompted a range of reactions. While many people were outraged, some sympathized with the assassin, noting his difficult childhood. Others said that a state funeral for Mr. Abe was a waste of money. (His assassin, Tetsuya Yamagami, was sentenced to life in prison earlier this year.)

然而，安倍晋三在日本仍是一个引发分歧的人物，因为他打破了数十年的战后和平主义；支持改变学校对二战时期历史的教学方式；在他的任期内，经济不平等现象出现加剧。他被一名41岁男子刺杀，该男子以此抗议执政的自民党与边缘宗教团体“统一教会”的关系。这一事件引发了一系列反应。虽然许多人感到愤怒，但也有人理解凶手，同情他艰难的童年。还有人说为安倍晋三举行国葬是浪费金钱。（今年早些时候，刺杀他的凶手山上彻也被判处终身监禁。）

Despite Mr. Abe’s complicated legacy, Ms. Takaichi has emerged as one of his chief defenders, hailing him as a transformative leader who elevated Japan’s stature on the global stage.

尽管安倍晋三留下的政治遗产错综复杂，但高市早苗已成为他的主要捍卫者之一，她称赞安倍晋三是一位具有变革精神的领导人，提升了日本在全球舞台上的地位。

This triumphant account of Mr. Abe’s tenure has been on display recently across Japan, including at a sold-out exhibition by the Shinzo Abe Digital Museum, an organization founded by Mr. Abe’s allies in business and government. The exhibition featured more than 100 objects from his life, including the microphone he was holding when he was shot on July 8, 2022, in the ancient city of Nara, Ms. Takaichi’s hometown.

最近，对安倍任期的这种颂扬式叙述在日本各地展示，其中包括“安倍晋三数字博物馆“举办的一场门票售罄的展览，“安倍晋三数字博物馆“由安倍在商政两界的盟友创办。该展览的展品包括他生前的100多件物品，包括2022年7月8日他在古城奈良遇刺时手里拿着的麦克风，那里也是高市早苗的故乡。

2022年7月安倍晋三遭枪击时手中握着的麦克风。

Mr. Abe’s widow, Akie Abe, said during a visit to the exhibition in Nara on Sunday that her husband’s message “has been entrusted to” Ms. Takaichi.

安倍的遗孀安倍昭惠周日参观在奈良举行的展览时表示，她丈夫的使命“已托付给”高市早苗。

Same Playbook, New Challenges

相同的策略，全新的挑战

Ms. Takaichi, who met Mr. Abe in the 1990s when they were both rising politicians and later served in his cabinet, has sought to portray herself as the inheritor of his legacy, at a time when Japan is facing rising tensions with China, Russia and North Korea.

高市早苗在20世纪90年代结识安倍晋三，当时两人都是冉冉升起的政治新星，她后来还在安倍内阁中任职。在日本与中、俄、朝三国紧张局势不断升级之际，她一直试图将自己塑造成安倍晋三政治遗产的继承人。

“She’s embracing what Abe did and running with it,” said Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“她正在全盘接受安倍晋三的一切，并以此为基础继续前进，”美国外交关系委员会高级研究员希拉·史密斯说。

The question now, analysts say, is whether Ms. Takaichi can adapt Mr. Abe’s vision to new challenges. Among them:

分析人士表示，现在的问题是，高市早苗能否将安倍晋三的愿景进行调整，以适应新的挑战。其中包括：

• Beijing is rapidly expanding its military and economic influence in Asia, and has led a monthslong campaign against Ms. Takaichi to punish her for a comment she made in support of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.

• 北京正迅速扩大其在亚洲的军事和经济影响力，并针对高市早苗发起了一场持续数月的攻势，以惩罚她发表的支持台湾的言论。中国声称台湾是其领土。

• Japan’s economic outlook has grown more complicated as the country grapples with inflation for the first time in decades and a stubbornly weak yen.

• 随着日本几十年来首次面临通货膨胀，加上日元持续疲软，该国的经济前景变得更加复杂。

• The country’s demographic decline is also accelerating, hurting the economy, causing labor shortages and undermining defense priorities like military recruitment.

• 日本的人口衰退也在加速，这拖累了经济，导致了劳动力短缺，并削弱了征兵等国防优先事项。

Mieko Nakabayashi, a political science professor at Waseda University in Tokyo, said Ms. Takaichi was clinging to Mr. Abe’s playbook while ignoring new realities. She pointed to Ms. Takaichi’s support for expansionary fiscal policies, which some analysts say could exacerbate inflation.

东京早稻田大学政治学教授中林美惠子表示，高市早苗一味沿袭安倍晋三的策略，却忽视了新的现实。她指出，高市早苗支持扩张性财政政策，一些分析人士称这可能会加剧通货膨胀。

“Her popularity depends on Mr. Abe’s legacy,” Ms. Nakabayashi said. “Her biggest selling point is that she is trying to realize everything that Mr. Abe wanted to do, at whatever cost.”

“她的支持率依赖于安倍的政治遗产，”中林美惠子说。“她最大的卖点在于，无论付出什么代价，她都致力于实现安倍想要做的一切。”

在日本与中俄朝紧张局势不断升级之际，高市早苗一直试图将自己塑造成安倍晋三政治遗产的继承人。

Ms. Takaichi worked for Mr. Abe during his first stint as prime minister in 2006, and during his second term, which began in 2012. She rose to the powerful position of minister for internal affairs and communications.

高市早苗曾在2006年安倍晋三首次担任首相期间以及始于2012年的第二个任期内为他工作。她一路晋升，升任总务大臣这一要职。

During that time she became a fierce defender of his policies, including efforts to revise Japan’s Constitution to unfetter its military, and his economic program, which emphasized cheap cash and government stimulus efforts.

在那期间，她成为安倍晋三政策的坚定捍卫者，包括旨在修改日本宪法以解除军队束缚的努力，以及强调低成本资金和政府刺激措施的经济计划。

“I was deeply drawn not only to his qualities as a politician but also to his character as a human being,” Ms. Takaichi said of her work with Mr. Abe, in a letter on display at the new exhibition.

在此次新展览中展出的一封信中，高市早苗如此描述她与安倍晋三共事的经历：“我不仅深深地被他作为政治人士的品质所吸引，也被他作为一个人的人格魅力所吸引。”

Tobias Harris, the founder of the advisory firm Japan Foresight and the author of a book on Mr. Abe, said that it remained to be seen whether Ms. Takaichi had fully grasped the lessons of his tenure. He said it was notable that she identified with Mr. Abe’s fighting spirit, given that Mr. Abe’s success in his second term came in part from tempering those impulses.

咨询公司“日本远见”的创始人、一部有关安倍晋三书籍的作者托比亚斯·哈里斯表示，高市早苗是否充分吸取了安倍晋三任期内的教训目前还有待观察。他说，值得注意的是，她认同安倍晋三的战斗精神，而事实上，安倍晋三在第二任期的成功部分源于他克制了那些冲动。

“We have seen her willingness to bulldoze her opponents over and over again,” Mr. Harris said. “But as Abe learned, there is a cost to pay for that.”

“我们一次又一次地看到她不惜碾压对手的意愿，”哈里斯说。“但正如安倍所意识到的那样，这种做法是要付出代价的。”

安倍晋三回顾展入口处的参观者。

The Shinzo Abe Digital Museum raised more than $338,000 from individual donors for the exhibition. On a recent day, visitors left notes on a wall with messages such as “You were our hope!” and “We will carry forward your mission.” A shop sold Abe-themed calendars and playing cards that included scenes of him golfing with President Trump.

“安倍晋三数字博物馆”从个人捐助者那里筹集了超过33.8万美元用于此次展览。前不久的一天，参观者在墙上留下了诸如“您曾是我们的希望！”和“我们将继承您的使命”之类的留言。一家商店出售以安倍晋三为主题的日历和扑克牌，其中包括他与特朗普总统打高尔夫球的场景。

The exhibition became a gathering spot for his supporters, drawing nearly 7,000 visitors in Tokyo and Nara, including more than a half dozen of Ms. Takaichi’s cabinet officials.

展览成为安倍晋三支持者的聚集地，在东京和奈良吸引了近7000名参观者，包括超过六名高市内阁官员。

Mr. Abe’s supporters are hopeful about Ms. Takaichi, though they said she would face different challenges than Mr. Abe, including disruptions to the energy supply, foreign wars and political volatility in the United States.

安倍晋三的支持者对高市早苗抱有希望，尽管他们表示，她将面临与安倍晋三不同的挑战，包括能源供应中断、外国战争以及美国的政治动荡。

Fumiyo Kato, 48, who runs a weather data company in Tokyo, cried during a recent visit to the exhibition as she viewed Mr. Abe’s personal artifacts: a childhood notebook, a portrait of his father, a wedding photo. She said that Ms. Takaichi appeared to be carrying on his legacy, but it was too early to say whether she would succeed.

48岁的加藤文代（音）在东京经营一家气象数据公司。最近参观展览时，她看到安倍的个人物品——一本童年笔记本、一张他父亲的肖像、一张结婚照——不禁流下了眼泪。她说高市早苗似乎继承了他的遗志，但现在断言她是否会成功还为时过早。

“Abe was a great man,” she said. “He can’t be easily replaced.”

“安倍是一位伟人，”她说。“他不能被轻易取代。”

For decades, South Korea was an example of the United States’ unyielding stance on nuclear nonproliferation.

几十年来，韩国一直是美国在核不扩散问题上保持坚定立场的一个典型例子。

In the 1970s, the United States pressured South Korea, a steadfast ally with whom it shared nuclear technology, to give up a clandestine nuclear weapons program. Then, it barred the country from enriching its own reactor fuel. The restriction held firm even after Seoul joined a nonproliferation treaty, accepted rigorous safeguards, and built one of the world’s largest nuclear power industries. Nor did the policy waver as North Korea built a nuclear arsenal on the South’s doorstep.

上世纪70年代，美国曾向韩国施压，要求其放弃秘密核武器计划——尽管韩国是与其共享核技术的坚定盟友。此后，美国又禁止韩国自行浓缩反应堆燃料。即便韩国加入了不扩散核武器条约、接受了严格的保障监督，并建成了规模居世界前列的核电产业，这一限制也未曾松动。即便朝鲜在韩国门口建成了核武库，美国的这一政策也未动摇。

Now, the Trump administration has apparently shattered that standard. By striking a deal that could lead to Saudi Arabia enriching uranium on its own soil, Washington has prompted an inevitable question in Seoul: Why Saudi Arabia, and not us?

如今，特朗普政府似乎打破了这一标准。华盛顿与沙特达成一项可能导致其在境内进行铀浓缩的协议，这在首尔引发了一个不可避免的问题：为什么是沙特，而不是我们？

South Korea has long negotiated with the United States for enrichment rights. While its Foreign Ministry declined to comment directly on the U.S.–Saudi accord, it said on Thursday that it was closely monitoring “trends in U.S. foreign policy on the nuclear energy sector” for potential impacts on its own talks. While the deal raises expectations for progress in South Korea’s negotiations with Washington, it could also seed deep friction in the seven-decade-old alliance if Washington continues to ignore Seoul’s demands.

长期以来，韩国一直与美国就铀浓缩权进行谈判。虽然韩国外交部拒绝就美沙协议直接置评，但周四表示正在密切关注“美国核能领域外交政策趋势”对韩美谈判可能产生的影响。虽然该协议提升了人们对韩美谈判取得进展的预期，但如果华盛顿继续无视首尔的要求，也可能在两国长达70年的同盟关系中埋下深刻分歧的种子。

“It is clear that the Trump administration is willing to make major geopolitical bargains with less emphasis on international norms and institutions,” said Leif-Eric Easley, an international studies professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

首尔梨花女子大学国际研究教授莱夫·埃里克·伊斯利表示：“很明显，特朗普政府愿意进行重大的地缘政治交易，而不太重视国际规范和制度。”

On Thursday, President Trump said the agreement is contingent on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, putting its immediate future in doubt.

周四，特朗普总统表示，这项协议的前提条件是沙特阿拉伯与以色列实现关系正常化，这使协议的近期前景充满不确定性。

Still, the contrast between Washington’s dealings with Saudi Arabia and South Korea exposes a stark double standard in American nuclear policy. Washington appears to have paved the way for enrichment rights for Saudi Arabia for power plants it has yet to build, while denying them to South Korea, which already operates 26 reactors and plans to build more to meet surging energy demands for the A.I. revolution. It has exempted Saudi Arabia from intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which South Korea has long submitted to to assure the international community that no technology is diverted to weapons projects.

然而，华盛顿对待沙特和韩国的不同方式暴露出美国核政策中明显的双重标准。华盛顿似乎为沙特尚未建成的核电站铺平了铀浓缩的道路；与此同时，它却拒绝给予韩国同样的权利，后者已在运行26座核反应堆，并计划建设更多核电设施，以满足人工智能革命带来的不断增长的能源需求。美国还豁免沙特接受国际原子能机构的侵入性检查，而韩国长期以来一直接受这类检查，向国际社会证明其核技术不会被转用于核武项目。

去年，沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼与特朗普总统在白宫举行会晤。

Many in South Korea find this American concession especially jarring given the geopolitical risks. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has openly warned that his kingdom would build a bomb if Iran did. By contrast, South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, has repeatedly promised that Seoul will not pursue nuclear weapons, choosing instead to rely on the U.S. security guarantees for deterrence as North Korea expands its nuclear arsenal.

许多韩国人认为，考虑到地缘政治风险，美国的这一让步尤其令人难以接受。沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾公开警告，如果伊朗造出核弹，沙特也会跟进。相比之下，韩国总统李在明已多次承诺首尔不会追求核武器，而是在朝鲜不断扩大核武库的情况下，继续依靠美国提供的安全保障来实现威慑。

“The danger of a breakout by Seoul is likely lower because of its continuous close coordination with Washington on extended deterrence,” Professor Easley said, adding that unlike in the Middle East, “major war on the Korean Peninsula has been deterred for decades.”

“首尔核突破的风险可能更低，因为它与华盛顿在延伸威慑方面持续密切协调，”伊斯利教授表示。他还指出，与中东不同，“朝鲜半岛几十年来一直没有发生大规模战争。”

As South Korea was pressured to abandon its weapons program, it signed a treaty with the United States in 1972 that barred enrichment without American consent. Even during a 2015 revision of the agreement, Washington mandated that any enrichment require written bilateral agreement.

在韩国被迫放弃核武器计划的时候，它在1972年与美国签署了一项条约，未经美国同意不得进行铀浓缩。即使在2015年修订该协议时，华盛顿仍规定任何浓缩活动都需经双边书面同意。

Consequently, South Korea imports all of its uranium fuel. Seoul now wants independent enrichment capabilities to secure its fuel supply chain. It also wants to recycle spent fuel to reduce waste storage volume — a massive political headache in a densely populated country with a vocal environmental movement.

因此，韩国目前所有铀燃料都依赖进口。如今，首尔希望获得独立的铀浓缩能力，以保障燃料供应链安全。同时，它也希望能够对乏燃料进行再处理，以减少核废料储存量——这对于一个人口密集、环保运动活跃的国家而言是一个巨大的政治难题。

The U.S.-Saudi deal will likely take center stage when South Korea and the United States resume talks to implement the comprehensive investment and security agreement struck by Mr. Trump and Mr. Lee in November.

 当韩国和美国重启谈判，以落实特朗普和李在明去年11月达成的全面投资和安全协议时，美沙协议很可能成为焦点。

Back then, Washington appeared to address Seoul’s grievances by promising to support a “process that will lead to” civil enrichment of uranium and reprocessing of spent fuel by South Korea. He also approved South Korea’s plan to build nuclear-powered attack submarines, pledging American help to secure uranium fuel for the vessels.

当时，华盛顿回应了韩国的不满，承诺支持一个“将促成”韩国进行民用铀浓缩和乏燃料再处理的进程。特朗普还批准了韩国建造核动力攻击潜艇的计划，并承诺美国将帮助韩国确保这些潜艇所需的铀燃料供应。

However, the broad wording left critical details unresolved, including whether South Korea could operate enrichment or reprocessing facilities on its own soil and whether those facilities would also supply fuel for nuclear submarines.

然而，协议中的宽泛措辞留下了关键问题尚未解决，包括韩国是否可以在本国领土上自行运营铀浓缩或乏燃料再处理设施，以及这些设施是否也能为核潜艇提供燃料。

Talks aimed at resolving such questions were sidetracked by a separate trade dispute, and working-level negotiations only resumed last month.

旨在解决这些问题的谈判因贸易争端而中断，工作层面的谈判上月才重新恢复。

South Korea aims to launch its first domestic nuclear submarine within a decade, using low-enriched fuel to ease proliferation fears. But the pathway remains unclear.

韩国计划在十年内让第一艘国产核动力潜艇下水，并使用低浓缩铀燃料，以降低核扩散方面的担忧。但目前实现这一目标的路径仍不明确。

In 2004, the I.A.E.A. investigated South Korean scientists for unauthorized enrichment experiments. Today, many in South Korea openly view uranium enrichment as a vital path to “nuclear latency” — the ability to rapidly develop weapons if Mr. Trump’s transactional diplomacy renders the U.S. security guarantee, known as the nuclear umbrella, unreliable.

2004年，国际原子能机构曾调查韩国科学家进行未经授权的铀浓缩实验一事。如今，韩国国内许多人公开将铀浓缩视为成为“核门槛”国家的重要途径。“核门槛国家”意味着，如果特朗普式的交易型外交导致美国的安全承诺（即核保护伞）变得不再可靠，韩国能够迅速发展核武器。

Despite the South Korean government’s repeated denials of any intent to build atomic weapons, public and political backing for a sovereign nuclear deterrent has increased in recent years, while North Korea’s nuclear threats have escalated. In December, Pyongyang unveiled the hull of what it described as its first nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine.

尽管韩国政府多次否认有意发展核武器，但近年来，随着朝鲜核威胁不断升级，韩国公众和政界对建立自主核威慑力量的支持正在增加。去年12月，平壤曝光了一艘它称之为首艘核动力战略制导导弹潜艇的艇体。

The Trump administration will impose tariffs of around 10 percent on goods from more than 80 countries on Friday, its latest effort to put in place an expansive protectionist policy that has been repeatedly challenged in court.

特朗普政府将于周五对来自80多个国家的商品加征约10%的关税，这是其落实一项大规模保护主义政策的最新举措，而该政策此前已多次在法院受到挑战。

The tariffs will range from 10 percent to 12.5 percent and take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, replacing a global 10 percent duty set to lapse at the same time. Mr. Trump issued that earlier tariff in February, after the Supreme Court struck down duties he imposed last year.

关税税率将在10%至12.5%之间，于周五凌晨0时01分生效，取代届时到期的全球统一10%关税。特朗普于今年2月宣布了此前的这项关税，在此之前，最高法院推翻了他去年实施的关税。

The move provides fresh evidence of Mr. Trump’s intention to transform global trade, despite numerous court challenges and the protests of U.S. consumers and businesses that have been stuck with higher tax bills. Over the past 17 months, the Trump administration has cycled through trade law after trade law as it tries to build a system to shield the U.S. economy from foreign competition.

此举再次表明，尽管法院多次提出挑战，且美国消费者和企业因税负增加而抗议，特朗普仍有意改变全球贸易格局。过去17个月来，特朗普政府不断尝试各种贸易法，试图构建一套保护美国经济免受外国竞争影响的体系。

The duties will be issued under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose tariffs on foreign countries that engage in unreasonable or discriminatory trade practices. The administration has cited the failure of foreign countries to pass or enforce laws banning the importation of goods made by forced labor into their own countries, saying that disadvantages U.S. businesses that do follow such laws.

此次关税将依据1974年《贸易法》第301条征收。该条款允许总统对存在不合理或歧视性贸易做法的外国征收关税。特朗普政府声称：外国未能通过或执行禁止进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品的法律，这使遵守此类法律的美国企业在竞争中处于不利地位。

Canada, which will be subject to a 10 percent tariff under the arrangement, already prohibits importing forced labor goods. The European Union, also at 10 percent, has a ban that is scheduled to take effect in December 2027. But Trump officials say that the governments have not effectively enforced those laws.

根据这一安排，加拿大将被征收10%的关税。事实上，加拿大早已禁止进口强迫劳动产品。欧盟同样适用10%的关税，而其禁止进口强迫劳动产品的法规计划于2027年12月生效。但特朗普政府官员表示，这些政府并没有切实执行这些法律。

The United States has arguably the strongest restrictions on forced labor imports of any country. It has prohibited the importation of goods made with slave labor for nearly a century, though it still allows prison labor under conditions that labor organizations consider coercive. In 2021, the United States passed a law banning imports from a region of China where it had found forced labor to be rampant.

可以说，美国对强迫劳动产品进口的限制是世界上最严格的国家之一。近一个世纪以来，美国一直禁止进口奴隶劳动生产的商品，不过，它仍允许劳工组织认为具有强迫性质的监狱劳动。2021年，美国通过一项法律，禁止进口来自中国一个被认定强迫劳动现象普遍存在地区的产品。

The Trump administration also pushed Canada and Mexico to adopt a prohibition on imports made by forced labor as part of prior trade negotiations, and 10 other countries have committed to bans as part of trade deals negotiated over the past year, a senior administration official said.

一位政府高级官员表示，在此前的贸易谈判中，特朗普政府还推动加拿大和墨西哥采纳禁止进口强迫劳动产品的规定；此外，在过去一年达成的贸易协议中，还有另外10个国家承诺实施类似禁令。

But critics say the United States, too, has shortfalls on its labor protections. And some say that the administration has seized on forced labor as merely the most convenient way to reimpose tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court.

但批评人士指出，美国自身的劳工保护也存在不足。还有人表示，特朗普政府不过是借强迫劳动作为最方便的借口，以重新恢复被最高法院推翻的关税政策。

Peter Harrell, a visiting scholar at Georgetown Law School and a former Biden administration official, said that the small differential in tariffs between Canada and the European Union on one hand and China on the other “just brings home that USTR is using this forced labor investigation as a pretext to impose tariffs that Trump wants to impose for his own economic theories and preferences.”

乔治城大学法学院访问学者、前拜登政府官员彼得·哈雷尔表示，加拿大和欧盟与中国之间的关税差异很小，“这恰恰说明美国贸易代表办公室只是将强迫劳动调查作为借口，征收那些特朗普基于自己的经济理论和政策偏好本来就想征收的关税。”

“It’s not really about forced labor,” he added.

“这实际上与强迫劳动无关，”他补充道。

While Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, and other U.S. officials have publicly said they cannot prejudge the outcome of the trade investigations, administration officials have privately reassured multiple foreign governments that their tariff rates will end up being the same as in deals negotiated last year, people familiar with the discussions said.

尽管美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔及其他美国官员公开表示，他们不能预先判断贸易调查的结果，但据知情人士透露，政府官员私下已向多个外国政府保证，它们最终适用的关税税率将与去年谈判达成的协议一致。

“Trump’s next trade scheme is ordering USTR to reconstruct his illegal global tariffs under the guise of addressing forced labor,” Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, said in a Congressional hearing Wednesday. “If the administration wants to get serious about forced labor, the first step is to look at its own enforcement record.”

“特朗普的下一个贸易计划是命令美国贸易代表办公室以解决强迫劳动问题为幌子，重新构建他那些已被裁定违法的全球关税，”俄勒冈州民主党参议员罗恩·怀登在周三的国会听证会上表示。“如果政府真想严肃对待强迫劳动问题，第一步就是审视自身的执法记录。”

美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔周三在国会山举行的参议院财政委员会听证会上接受质询。

The new tariffs will exempt oil and gas and certain national resources, as well as goods already covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or national security-related tariffs Mr. Trump has imposed on cars, steel and other goods.

新关税将豁免石油、天然气及部分国家资源，以及美墨加协定涵盖的商品或特朗普已对汽车、钢铁等商品征收的国家安全相关关税。

More duties are likely to be on the way in the coming weeks. The administration has proposed another batch of tariffs, also using Section 301, on 15 countries and the European Union to offset what the White House calls unfair practices in their manufacturing sectors. An administration official said Thursday that an investigation was continuing.

未来数周可能还会有更多关税出台。政府已提议依据第301条对15个国家和欧盟再征收一批关税，用于补偿白宫所称这些国家制造业中的“不公平做法”。一名政府官员周四表示，相关调查仍在进行中。

Mr. Trump has long maintained that U.S. tariffs on imports were unfairly low, and he came into office wanting to transform that system. But his efforts have been met with plenty of stops, starts and setbacks, reflecting the fact that a president’s legal authority over tariff policy is in some ways limited.

特朗普长期以来一直认为，美国对进口商品征收的关税过低，因此他上任后便希望彻底改变这一体系。但他的努力屡屡受阻、反复启动又受挫，这也反映出，总统在关税政策上的法律权限在某些方面其实是有限的。

The Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate trade, but legislators have written numerous laws that allow the president to issue tariffs in certain circumstances. But typically, those laws are designed to help the president address unfair trade practices in certain countries or industries, not to replace the U.S. tariff system wholesale.

宪法赋予国会监管贸易的权力，但国会也制定了许多法律，允许总统在特定情形下征收关税。不过，这些法律通常都是为了帮助总统应对某些国家或行业的不公平贸易行为，而不是让总统全面取代美国现行的关税体系。

Mr. Harrell said that Mr. Trump’s use of Section 301 was much broader that the statute intended, and that it likely would be challenged in court. While Section 301 was supposed to be used to create leverage to push a country to address an unfair trade practice, he said, “Trump is reinterpreting the statute to try to impose perpetual tariffs on almost all imports.”

哈雷尔表示，特朗普对第301条的运用远远超出了这项法律原本的立法目的，很可能会再次受到法院挑战。他说，第301条本应被用来向他国施压，迫使其纠正不公平贸易行为，而“特朗普正在重新解读该条款，试图对几乎所有进口商品征收永久性关税”。

“They are showing that on tariffs, they can kind of run faster than the courts will, and they’re going to force the courts to keep playing catch up,” he added.

“他们表明，在关税问题上，他们的行动速度可以比法院更快，并迫使法院不断疲于追赶，”他补充道。

The Supreme Court invalidated Mr. Trump’s preferred legal tool in February, when it said his use of an international emergency law to impose tariffs was unlawful and ordered roughly $160 billion in tariff revenue to be refunded. Mr. Trump had used the emergency law to announce his “Liberation Day” tariffs on foreign countries last year, and to penalize Canada, Mexico and China for their real or alleged role in channeling fentanyl to the United States.

今年2月，最高法院否定了特朗普最常使用的法律工具，裁定他依据一项国际紧急经济权力法征收关税属于违法，并下令退还约1600亿美元的关税收入。特朗普此前正是依据这部紧急状态法于去年宣布了针对外国的“解放日”关税，并以加拿大、墨西哥和中国在芬太尼流入美国问题上的真实或所谓责任为由施以惩罚。

After the Supreme Court decision, Mr. Trump turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 as a stopgap, a law which had never been used to impose tariffs before. Section 122 allows a president to impose a tariff to address balance of payments issues, but it has a 150-day time limit that is set to expire early Friday.

最高法院作出裁决后，特朗普转而援引1974年《贸易法》第122条作为过渡措施。这项法律此前从未被用于征收关税。第122条允许总统为解决国际收支问题征收关税，但规定最长只能实施150天，而该时限将于本周五凌晨到期。

Mr. Trump’s use of Section 122 has also faced legal challenges. A group of small businesses and a coalition of states each sued the administration, claiming that the government did not satisfy the law’s strict criteria. In May, a majority of judges on a federal trade court agreed, handing down the second major tariff defeat against Mr. Trump.

特朗普援引第122条的做法同样遭遇了法律挑战。一批小企业和多个州的联盟相继对政府提起诉讼，声称政府未能满足该法律的严格适用条件。今年5月，联邦贸易法院多数法官支持了这一立场，这是特朗普第二次在关税问题上遭遇重大挫折。

The administration appealed the decision, and the courts have allowed the government to continue collecting the 10 percent tax on imports as the appeal progresses.

特朗普政府随后提起上诉，而法院允许政府在上诉审理期间继续征收这项10%的进口关税。

The provision that the administration is turning to next, Section 301, is more battle tested. Mr. Trump used it to impose tariffs on China in his first term, and his use of it has survived multiple challenges in court. But it has never before been used in such a sweeping way, to issue tariffs on dozens of countries simultaneously.

政府接下来准备援引的第301条经过了更多的司法检验。特朗普在第一任期内曾援引该条款对中国征收关税，且经受住了多轮法律挑战。但以此条款同时对数十个国家大规模征收关税尚属首次。

The administration also turned to another obscure trade law earlier this week, when Mr. Trump signed orders to impose a 50 percent tariff on billions of dollars of Canadian exports. The law, the Tariff Act of 1930, also known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, was written by Congress to shield American businesses during the onset of the Great Depression, though many historians believe it actually deepened the crisis. The Section 338 provision of the act that the administration used had never been used to impose tariffs.

本周早些时候，特朗普政府还援引了另一部鲜为人知的贸易法律，当时特朗普签署命令，对价值数十亿美元的加拿大出口产品征收50%的关税。他所依据的是1930年《关税法》，也就是《斯穆特—霍利关税法》。这部法律是国会在大萧条初期制定的，旨在保护美国企业，但许多历史学家认为，它实际上加剧了当时的经济危机。而特朗普政府此次援引的该法第338条此前也从未被用来征收关税。

Testifying in Congress Wednesday, Mr. Greer said that the administration remained intent on imposing tariffs, regardless of the legal approach.

格里尔周三在国会作证时表示，无论采用何种法律依据，政府都将继续征收关税。

“The specific authorities this administration is using have changed, but the trade strategy has not,” Mr. Greer said. “We are committed to continuing to use tariffs and to negotiate deals to support the re-industrialization of our economy, protect American workers and increase their wages and shrink our trade deficit.”

“这届政府具体援引的法律依据在变，但贸易战略没有变，”格里尔说。“我们将继续坚定地运用关税，并通过谈判达成协议，以支持我们经济的再工业化，保护美国工人，提高他们的薪资水平，缩减贸易赤字。”

Narendra Modi, the powerful and acutely image-conscious prime minister of India, is suddenly facing a political problem he had not anticipated on entering his 13th year in office.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪一向强势且极其在意形象。在执掌权力进入第13个年头之际，他突然面临一个始料未及的政治难题。

Mr. Modi has had his eye trained on economic anxieties for much of the year, which were sharpened by the external effects of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. His government had to manage shortages of imported oil and gas, distributing the costs among businesses and ordinary citizens.

今年以来，莫迪大部分时间都在关注经济层面的焦虑情绪，而美国和以色列对伊朗发动的战争所带来的外部影响又进一步加剧了这种焦虑。他的政府不得不应对进口石油和天然气短缺的问题，需要在企业和普通民众之间分摊由此产生的成本。

But it was another sort of economic pressure that has now caught up with him and helped drive thousands of students to protest in the capital: The crumbling and sometimes crooked machinery of India’s underfunded education system, along with a painful lack of jobs for the millions of graduates it produces.

但真正让他陷入困境的是另一种经济压力——也正是这种压力驱使数千名学生走上首都街头抗议：印度资金不足的教育体系本身已经摇摇欲坠、腐败丛生，而这一体系每年培养出的数百万毕业生又面临严峻的就业难问题。

After 25 days of protest, and nearly three days since police used batons and tear gas to disperse protesters, Mr. Modi was still struggling for a meaningful response. On Thursday, he posted on social media that “Nothing is more important than the welfare and future of our youth!” He has promised fast-track tribunals to punish the individuals who spoiled the exam but nothing else.

抗议已持续25天，警察动用警棍和催泪弹驱散示威者也已过去将近三天，莫迪仍在苦苦寻找一个有分量的回应。周四，他在社交媒体上发帖称，“没有什么比我们年轻人的福祉和未来更重要！”他承诺将设立快速审理法庭，惩处泄题丑闻的相关人员，但除此之外没有提出其他措施。

This sounded both late and lame to the protesters who were on the street, infuriating many of them further. The movement’s demands are widening rapidly from their initial complaints focused on over accountability for the scrapping of a college-entrance exam to, among other things, compensation for the protesters injured in clashes on Monday.

这番表态在街头抗议者听来既嫌太迟，又显苍白无力，反而让许多人更加愤慨。这场运动的诉求正在迅速扩大：从最初要求对大学入学考试取消一事追究责任，延伸至为周一冲突中受伤的抗议者提供赔偿等多项诉求。

Many of the protesters are students, and many others have jobs, but they share a sense of desperation and rage about education and employment prospects. Smaller protests have emerged in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad and other cities, raising demands that Mr. Modi will find difficult if not impossible to answer in the short term.

许多抗议者是学生，也有不少是上班族，但他们对教育和就业前景都抱有共同的绝望和愤怒。孟买、班加罗尔、艾哈迈达巴德等城市也出现了规模较小的抗议活动，这些诉求将让莫迪在短期内很难、甚至无法作出回应。

Arsh Gupta, a 20-year-old college student, said “there are a lot of feelings” that brought him to the central protest site on Thursday. The original testing failure “is not a small thing at all,” he said, but he was driven more by other issues, most of all “the feeling that we’re living under a dictatorship.”

20岁的大学生阿尔什·古普塔说，促使他周四来到中央抗议现场的原因是“许许多多的情绪”。最初的考试事故“绝非小事”，他说，但驱使他前来的更多是其他问题，尤其是“我们感觉自己生活在一个独裁政权之下”。

At the forefront of the protests is the Cockroach Janta Party, not an actual political party but a movement that takes its name from an insult made by the chief justice of India’s Supreme Court. It is taking aim at these much longer-term crises. The education system is in disarray, the C.J.P.’s spokesmen said, demanding that corrupt and bungling officials must face accountability.

站在抗议最前沿的是“蟑螂人民党”。这并不是一个真正的政党，而是一场以印度最高法院首席大法官曾使用的一句侮辱性言论命名的社会运动。该运动正在将矛头指向印度长期存在的危机。蟑螂人民党的发言人表示，印度教育体系已陷入混乱，要求腐败无能的官员必须被追责。

India’s economy may be growing at a healthy rate, but it offers the protesters little hope. While the gross rate of unemployment looks low, recorded as between 4 and 7 percent, most workers fall outside the formal sector and never get counted. Young adults, especially those who have earned degrees and want to put them to use, are the most frustrated. Nearly 40 percent are unemployed, according to the State of Working India 2026 report published by Azim Premji University.

印度经济或许仍保持着健康增长速度，但这并没有给这些抗议者带来多少希望。虽然官方统计的失业率看起来并不高，大约在4%到7%之间，但大多数劳动者都处于非正规就业部门，从未被纳入统计。年轻人——尤其是拿到学位、渴望一展所长的大学毕业生——是最沮丧的群体。阿齐姆·普雷姆吉大学发布的《2026年印度就业状况报告》显示，印度年轻人的失业率接近40%。

The protesters’ anger intensified after Monday’s show of force by the police, and appears to have turned against the whole of India’s government.

警方周一采取强硬行动后，抗议者的愤怒进一步升级，矛头似乎已转向整个印度政府。

None of this was on Mr. Modi’s menu for 2026.

这一切都不在莫迪的2026年议程中。

本周早些时候，新德里，安保人员发射催泪瓦斯驱散抗议者。

The Iran war presented a tough series of challenges but also an opportunity to make a fresh break. Economic difficulties had been piling up for months while Mr. Modi’s party was also fighting to win power in a series of state elections.

伊朗战争带来了一系列严峻考验，但同时也提供了一个重新出发的机会。在莫迪的执政党忙于角逐一系列邦级选举之际，经济困难已持续数月。

After winning control of state governments culminating with West Bengal in May, Mr. Modi turned to keeping down inflation and reining in the public’s expectations.

在赢得多个邦的控制权，并于5月最终拿下西孟加拉邦后，莫迪开始致力于控制通胀，并降低公众对政府的期待。

Mr. Modi started warning Indians that painful times were coming. Food prices were rising, and the rupee was nose-diving.

莫迪开始警告印度民众，困难时期即将到来。食品价格在上涨，卢比在大幅贬值。

Around the same time, it emerged that the questions to a national medical college entrance exam had been leaked, so the results for millions of students were canceled. The C.J.P. took up the test-takers’ cause almost instantly.

大约在同一时期，一场全国医学院入学考试的试题泄露事件曝光，导致数百万学生的考试成绩被取消。蟑螂人民党几乎在第一时间站出来支持这些考生。

The protest’s leadership is, however, dispersed and nonprofessional. That makes it unlike the farmers who staged a siege-like protest around Delhi for more than a year from 2020 to 2021, or even a current protest on behalf of Jammu and Kashmir, whose elected leader is trying to restore its statehood.

不过，这场抗议的领导结构较为分散，也缺乏专业性。这使它不同于2020年至2021年农民在德里周边发动的、持续一年多的围困式抗议，也不同于目前围绕查谟和克什米尔问题展开的抗议——后者有一位民选领导人试图恢复该地区的邦地位。

These mostly middle-class protesters cannot easily be made to look marginal.

这些大多来自中产阶级的抗议者很难被简单描绘成边缘群体。

Nor can the issues they raise be answered overnight. The causes of India’s jobs crisis have been brewing for a long time. A great deal of students’ time and their families’ money has been invested in courses that routinely fail to equip them for the workplace.

他们所提出的问题同样无法一夜之间给出答案。印度就业危机的根源已经酝酿积累了很长时间。学生们投入了大量时间，家庭耗费了高昂资金投入，但这些课程往往无法真正帮助他们获得进入职场所需的技能。

Amit Basole, an economist and lead author of the State of Working India report, noted that young graduates in India have always been disproportionately unemployed. But their number has grown terrifically in recent years, along with the debt their families owe for their educations.

《印度就业状况报告》的主要作者、经济学家阿米特·巴索莱指出，印度年轻大学毕业生一直以来的失业比例就明显偏高。但近年来，他们的数量急剧增长，与此同时，他们的家庭为了支付教育费用而背负的债务也不断增长。

“It’s a systematic failure. If the government’s not responsible, then who is?” asked Pranavi Tripathi, a 22-year-old business graduate protesting in Delhi on Thursday.

“这是系统性的失败。如果政府不负责，那谁负责？”22岁的商科毕业生普拉纳维·特里帕蒂周四在德里参加抗议时说道。

Health and weather authorities in Japan were at a loss. A record number of people suffered from heat stroke last year as more cities experienced their highest-ever temperatures, despite official warnings about the dangers of excessive heat.

日本的卫生和气象当局一度束手无策。尽管官方针对过高温危险发出警告，但随着越来越多的城市出现有史以来的最高气温，去年中暑人数达到了创纪录的水平。

They decided to tackle the problem by giving it a name. Earlier this year, the Japan Meteorological Agency held a public poll to select a name for a day of temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher, to signal that precautions were needed. The winner, with more than 40 percent of the vote, was kokushobi, meaning “cruel heat day.”

他们决定通过给这种现象起个名字来应对这个问题。今年早些时候，日本气象厅举行了一次公开投票，为气温达到或超过40摄氏度的日子征集名称，以提醒人们需要采取预防措施。最终胜出的是获得超过40%选票的“kokushobi”，意为“酷暑日”。

The term got its first use on Tuesday, when three cities in central Japan recorded 40-degree temperatures, a first for the country this year. Officials urged people to stay indoors, use air-conditioning and drink water.

该词于周二首次被使用，当时日本中部的三个城市录得了40度的高温，这是该国今年首次出现这种情况。官员们敦促民众留在室内、使用空调并多喝水。

There were signs that many people had heeded the warnings, as popular sites such as Osaka Castle and Kyoto’s Kiyomizu Temple saw smaller crowds than usual on Tuesday.

有迹象表明，许多人听从了警告，因为大阪城和京都清水寺等热门景点周二的游客比往常要少。

“Numbers are difficult to understand because people perceive them differently. By giving it the name ‘cruel heat day,’ people will understand it better just by hearing it, and they’ll feel that today is dangerous,” said Taro Kawasato, the assistant director of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s climate prediction division.

“数字令人很难理解，因为人们对它们的感知各不相同。通过命名‘酷暑日’，人们一听就能更好地理解，并且会感觉到今天是危险的一天，”日本气象厅气候预测部门助理主任河里太郎（音）说。

The agency’s public poll in February and March garnered more than 400,000 votes, according to a statement. Kokushobi bested a dozen other terms that translate to “dangerously hot day,” “sweaty day” and “sauna day.” Mr. Kawasato said that meteorologists consulted with media and linguistics experts to form the list of names.

据声明，该机构在2月和3月进行的公开投票获得了超过40万张选票。“酷暑日” 从十几个其他候选词中脱颖而出，这些词翻译过来包括“危险高温日”、“汗流浃背日”和“桑拿日”。 河里太郎表示，气象学家在制定这份名称清单时，征询了媒体和语言学专家的意见。

And the dangers persist, even with slightly cooler weather on the horizon. Last week, even before the first kokushobi, 14 people died from heat-related illnesses, Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency said.

尽管天气预计将略微转凉，这种危险依然存在。日本消防厅表示，上周，甚至在第一个“酷暑日”到来之前，已有14人死于与高温相关的疾病。

Japan is the latest country where officials have sought new terms to communicate the risks of rising temperatures.

多个国家使用新术语来传达气温上升的风险，日本是最新的一个。

In Britain, the Met Office began issuing extreme heat warnings in 2021 to highlight the impact of high temperatures on health, infrastructure and public services. (A red warning, the highest level, was issued when a heat wave baked European countries last month.) The United Kingdom Health Security Agency also issues “heat health alerts” for England to inform those in the health sector about the potential effects of high temperatures, especially for older people and others who are more vulnerable.

在英国，英国气象局于2021年开始发布极端高温警告，以强调高温对健康、基础设施和公共服务的影响。（上个月热浪炙烤欧洲国家时，该机构发布了最高级别的红色预警。）英国卫生安全局还针对英格兰发布“高温健康警报”， 向医疗卫生界人员通报高温的潜在影响，特别是对老年人和其他脆弱群体的影响。

In recent years, Chinese-language media have also searched for phrases to describe the summer heat. News headlines in Taiwan have described the weather as being like a sauna, with people “roasting like a sweet potato.”

近年来，中文媒体也在寻找词句来描述夏季的炎热。台湾的新闻头条将这种天气比作桑拿，人们“热成烤番薯”。

Health authorities in Shenzhen, a city on China’s southern coast, said in a social media post that temperatures in early July had risen to “barbecue mode.” During that period, 62 people called for ambulances because of heat stroke, two of whom died, the authorities said.

中国南部沿海城市深圳的卫生部门在社交媒体上发文称，7月上旬的气温已升至“烧烤模式”。该部门表示，在此期间，有62人因中暑呼叫救护车，其中两人死亡。

Mr. Kawasato said that the Japanese government started issuing heat stroke alerts in 2021, as sweltering days grew more frequent across the country. Last year, 30 locations recorded temperatures of at least 40 degrees Celsius, the highest of which was 41.8 degrees — or 107 degrees Fahrenheit — in Isesaki, a city north of Tokyo, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

河里表示，随着全国各地酷热天气日益频繁，日本政府于2021年开始发布中暑预警。根据日本气象厅的数据，去年共有30个地点的气温达到至少40摄氏度，其中最高气温出现在东京北部的伊势崎市，达到41.8度。

Heat stroke is among the heat-related illnesses that occur when the body loses the ability to cool itself, putting pressure on the heart. Symptoms can range from confusion, dizziness and nausea to a rapid heartbeat and shallow breathing.

中暑是与高温相关的疾病之一，当人体失去自我降温能力时就会发生，会给心脏带来负担。其症状可能包括意识模糊、头晕和恶心，甚至心跳加速和呼吸急促。

Last summer in Japan, emergency workers responded to more than 100,000 cases of heat stroke from May to September, the most since the Fire and Disaster Management Agency began collecting data in 2008.

去年夏天，在日本，从5月到9月，急救人员处理了超过10万起中暑病例，这是自日本消防厅2008年开始收集数据以来的最高纪录。

In the Cold War era, “soft power” meant American movies and music that won hearts and minds abroad. Today, in the digital era, China is promoting a very different kind of soft power: its open, low-cost artificial intelligence technology.

在冷战时期，“软实力”意味着在海外赢得人心的美国电影和音乐。如今，在数字时代，中国正在推行一种截然不同的软实力：开放、低成本的人工智能技术。

In a speech last week, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, described so-called open-source A.I. as key to China’s ambitions to shape the global development of the technology. Mr. Xi hailed open-sourcing, in which much of the software can be freely shared and modified, as a “rare and historical opportunity” to spread the technology’s benefits worldwide.

在上周的一次讲话中，中国领导人习近平将所谓的开源人工智能描述为中国塑造该技术全球发展雄心的关键。习近平赞扬了开源模式——即大部分软件可以被自由共享和修改的模式——称其为将该技术的红利传播到全世界的“难得的历史机遇”。

Mr. Xi made clear that China will champion the open path as an alternative to relying on U.S. tech giants, whose A.I. software is typically closed and more costly.

习近平明确表示，中国将倡导这条开放的道路，以此作为依赖美国科技巨头的替代方案；后者的人工智能软件通常是封闭的，且成本更高。

“A.I. development should not be a solo performance by a single country,” Mr. Xi said, “but a symphony of global collaboration.”

“人工智能发展不应该是某个国家的独奏，而应当是全球合作的交响，”习近平说。

The Chinese are calling for a new A.I. order amid a mounting battle for global dominance between the leading American companies and fast-moving Chinese rivals.

在美国领先企业与发展迅速的中国竞争对手争夺全球主导地位的斗争日益激烈之际，中方正呼吁建立一种新的人工智能秩序。

U.S. companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and Google hold their technology close, arguing that guarding the underlying code ensures greater security and control of powerful A.I. systems. Chinese companies like DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Z.ai and Alibaba have championed open-source A.I. They contend that those systems cost less, will accelerate global adoption and are no less secure.

OpenAI、Anthropic和谷歌等美国公司对其技术严加保密，它们认为保护底层代码能确保对强大人工智能系统拥有更高的安全性和控制力。而深度求索、月之暗面、智谱AI和阿里巴巴等中国公司则一直在倡导开源人工智能。它们认为，这些系统成本更低，将加速全球普及，而且安全性毫不逊色。

Promoting open-source artificial intelligence “serves China’s twin goals of bolstering its image as an inclusive A.I. leader and reducing global reliance on American A.I.,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who is a China technology policy expert.

布鲁金斯学会研究员、中国科技政策专家凯尔·陈（音）表示，推广开源人工智能“有助于中国的双重目标：一是提升其作为包容性人工智能领导者的形象，二是减少全球对美国人工智能的依赖”。

上周，中国国家主席习近平在上海出席了一场人工智能会议。

As the Chinese companies rapidly close the gap in A.I. performance, the country’s rivalry with the United States has become more hostile. American companies have accused some Chinese competitors of improperly harvesting data from their systems to aid their own technology’s development.

随着中国公司迅速缩小在人工智能性能上的差距，中美之间的竞争也变得更具敌意。美国公司指责一些中国竞争对手不当抓取其系统数据，帮助发展自己的技术。

Last month, Anthropic sent a letter to two U.S. senators accusing the Chinese tech giant Alibaba of “brazenly” and “illicitly” trying to copy its technology using 24,000 fraudulent accounts. Alibaba has denied any wrongdoing.

上个月，Anthropic致信两名美国参议员，指责中国科技巨头阿里巴巴试图利用2.4万个虚假账户“公然”且“非法”复制其技术。阿里巴巴否认有任何不当行为。

The Trump administration is taking such allegations seriously. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to impose sanctions on Chinese A.I. companies.

特朗普政府正在认真对待这些指控。周三，财政部长贝森特威胁要对中国人工智能公司实施制裁。

“We support open-source A.I. and the innovation it unlocks,” Mr. Bessent posted on X. “But open source is not open season on American IP,” referring to intellectual property.

“我们支持开源人工智能及其带来的创新，”贝森特在X上发帖称。“但开源并不意味着对美国IP的开放狩猎，”IP是指知识产权。

U.S. tech executives and investors also worry that the Chinese open-source technology could change the economics of A.I. production. Their models are more efficient, eating up less computing power. That innovation is driven partly by necessity because U.S. trade restrictions have limited access to the most advanced A.I. chips from Nvidia.

美国科技高管和投资者也担心，中国的开源技术可能会改变人工智能生产的经济学。中国的模型更高效，消耗的算力更少。这种创新部分是出于无奈，因为美国的贸易限制阻碍了它们获取英伟达最先进人工智能芯片的途径。

If the Chinese A.I. alternatives are nearly as good and less expensive — estimates range from 50 percent to 90 percent for some tasks — they could threaten the business plans and sky-high valuations of the American A.I. leaders. And the Chinese technology is increasingly being embraced by engineers and companies in the United States, seeking to trim costs.

如果中国的人工智能替代方案几乎一样好且更便宜——据估计，在某些任务中成本可降低50%至90%——它们可能会威胁到美国人工智能领导者的商业计划和极高的估值。此外，为了削减成本，中国的技术正日益被美国的工程师和公司所接受。

The China strategy is “to capture market share across the world, even if it doesn’t translate into profits right away,” said Wendy Chang, a senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a think tank.

智库墨卡托中国研究所高级分析师温迪·张表示，中国的战略是“抢占全球市场份额，即使这不会立即转化为利润”。

深度求索位于杭州的总部。

Proponents of the open approach point to Linux, an open-source software operating system, as a reason for optimism. The software runs most of the computers in internet data centers and has benefited from many people poring over the code and making fixes.

开放策略的支持者以开源软件操作系统Linux作为乐观的理由。该软件运行在互联网数据中心的大多数计算机上，并得益于众多开发者对源代码的深入研究和修复。

Still, computer experts agree that A.I. is a more nuanced case. There is more than code involved, notably the data used for training a model. And A.I. models form judgments and can reason.

尽管如此，计算机专家们一致认为，人工智能的情况更为复杂微妙。它所涉及的不仅仅是代码，尤其是用于训练模型的数据。而且，人工智能模型会做出判断并能够进行推理。

There are also security concerns. Some security experts insist that the open-source approach of releasing both software and the numerical settings for training A.I. models, known as weights, greatly increases the risk of the technology’s being used for cyberattacks or even to help build bioweapons.

安全方面也存在隐患。一些安全专家坚称，将软件和用于训练人工智能模型的数值参数（即权重）一并公开的开源做法极大地增加了人工智能技术被用于网络攻击、甚至帮助制造生物武器的风险。

And the heavy influence of the Chinese government on its companies raises potential data protection and security concerns.

此外，中国政府对本国公司的巨大影响力也引发了潜在的数据保护和安全担忧。

But the closed models of the Silicon Valley companies have had their own security glitches. This week, OpenAI disclosed that a model it was testing went rogue and attacked the computer systems of another company. The targeted company, Hugging Face, said it had deployed a Chinese open-source model from Z.ai to analyze data and counter the attack.

但是，硅谷公司的闭源模型也存在着自身的安全漏洞。本周，OpenAI披露其正在测试的一个模型失控，攻击了另一家公司的计算机系统。受攻击的公司Hugging Face表示，它部署了来自智谱AI的中国开源模型来分析数据，抵御了这次攻击。

Now, China has outlined a plan to leverage its open-source advantage as a diplomatic tool.

现在，中国已经制定一项计划，将其开源优势作为一种外交工具加以利用。

The concept of open-source A.I. software as an instrument of soft power has been popularized in technology circles. It suggests influence through persuasion and desire — something people want — rather than the coercive “hard power” of military might and economic muscle.

将开源人工智能软件作为一种软实力工具的概念已在科技圈流行开来。这一理念主张通过说服和满足渴望——即提供人们想要的东西——来施加影响力，而不是通过军事力量和经济实力这种强制性的“硬实力”。

The open path offers a low-cost on-ramp to A.I. for software engineers and for nations seeking to catch the next wave of technology.

这条开放之路为软件工程师和寻求赶上下一波技术浪潮的国家提供了一个低成本的人工智能入门通道。

英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋。

“Those who benefit from free A.I. software certainly recognize it,” said Lawrence Lessig, a professor at Harvard Law School and a technology policy expert. “From a political perspective, it’s an enormous gain for China.”

“那些从免费人工智能软件中受益的人肯定认识到了这一点，”哈佛法学院教授、科技政策专家劳伦斯·莱斯格说。“从政治角度来看，这对中国来说是一个巨大的收益。”

China, an authoritarian power, often uses the language of openness in outreach overseas, especially to the developing world. And in recent years, it has used A.I. in those efforts, setting up joint A.I. development and education centers in dozens of nations. This year, China established the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization to shape A.I. governance principles and to promote A.I. adoption and training in China-friendly countries.

作为一个威权大国，中国在海外拓展特别是面向发展中国家时经常使用开放的语言。近年来，它将人工智能融入这些努力中，在数十个国家建立了联合人工智能发展和教育中心。今年，中国成立了世界人工智能合作组织，旨在塑造人工智能治理原则，并在对中国友好的国家推广人工智能的应用和培训。

In his speech, Mr. Xi pledged further investments. That included 5,000 A.I. training and seminar programs for students and workers in developing countries over the next five years, as well as new or enlarged A.I. initiatives in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

在演讲中，习近平承诺将进一步增加投资。其中包括未来五年内为发展中国家的学生和工人提供5000个人工智能培训和研讨项目，以及在非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲开展新的或规模更大的人工智能倡议。

On the same day as Mr. Xi’s speech, the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official newspaper, published an article on China’s A.I. investments abroad with a litany of training and joint-development programs.

就在习近平发表演讲的同一天，中共官方报纸《人民日报》发表了一篇关于中国在海外进行人工智能投资的文章，列举了一系列培训和联合开发项目。

Its self-congratulatory conclusion: “China is helping countries around the world, particularly those in the Global South, strengthen their capabilities, winning broad international recognition and support.”

文章以自我赞许的口吻总结道：“中国的务实合作正跨越山海，帮助世界各国特别是全球南方国家加强能力建设，获得国际社会广泛支持认同。”

The Chinese government has spent three years giving away its most capable artificial intelligence to anyone to use. That generosity was always temporary. Chinese authorities have reportedly been meeting with Alibaba, ByteDance and the start-up Z.ai to discuss restricting overseas access to some of China’s most advanced models — including systems that have not yet been released.

三年来，中国政府一直把它最强大的人工智能免费向所有人开放。然而，这样的慷慨从来都是不会持久的。据报道，中国当局一直在与阿里巴巴、字节跳动以及初创公司智谱AI会面，讨论限制境外用户访问中国部分最先进模型的问题——包括一些目前尚未发布的系统。

The U.S. government’s instinct will likely be to answer with a ban of its own. That would be a mistake. The right response is the opposite: America and its allies should build and deploy their own so-called open-weight models, which users can download, run and modify on their machines. They should do so at scale, and commit to releasing new and better versions on a dependable schedule — so that anyone building on an American model can count on the next one arriving. China’s move is an opening for the United States to take the lead again on A.I. It will not stay open for long.

美国政府的本能反应很可能是以自己的禁令作为回应。那将是一个错误。正确的做法恰恰相反：美国及其盟友应该构建并部署自己的所谓“开放权重”模型，使用户能够将模型下载到本地，在自己的设备上运行并进行修改。而且，这项工作应当大规模推进，并承诺按照可靠的周期发布更为强大的新版本。让所有基于美国模型进行开发的人都能确信，下一代模型会如期推出。中国的这一举动正是美国重夺人工智能主导权的一个机会窗口。但这个窗口不会开太久。

An A.I. model’s “weights” are the billions of individual settings acquired and fine-tuned during training that help determine how a model responds to prompts. When a company keeps its weights secret, as OpenAI does with GPT, other companies and developers can rent access through its servers — but they cannot look inside or take the model with them. When a company publishes these weights, as the Chinese company DeepSeek has for its A.I. model, any user can download and run the weights on its own hardware, inspect them and retrain them for a specialized task.

人工智能模型的“权重”是指训练过程中获得并微调好的数十亿个独立参数，它们有助于决定模型如何对提示词作出回应。当一家公司对其权重保密时——比如OpenAI对GPT的做法——其他公司和开发者只能通过其服务器租用访问权限，但无法查看模型内部，也无法将模型带走。当一家公司公开这些权重时——比如中国公司DeepSeek，任何用户都可以下载这些权重，在自己的硬件上运行、检查它们，并针对特定任务进行重新训练。

That is how China is arguably winning the A.I. race. Last week, the Chinese start-up Moonshot A.I. unveiled Kimi K3, which the company says is the world’s largest open-weight A.I. model and rivals the performance of Anthropic and OpenAI’s best models to date. Alibaba’s Qwen is now the most downloaded A.I. model family on earth. Developers have used it to build more than 100,000 specialized models of their own. On OpenRouter, a service that lets developers send their work to whichever A.I. model they choose, Chinese open-weight models accounted for more than 20 percent of the units of text processed over a number of weeks in 2025 and more than 40 percent over a few weeks this spring; in 2024, such models’ weekly processing of text was as low as about 1 percent.

可以说，这正是中国在人工智能竞赛中占据优势的原因。上周，中国初创公司月之暗面推出了Kimi K3，该公司称，这是目前全球规模最大的开放权重人工智能模型，其性能足以媲美Anthropic和OpenAI迄今最优秀的模型。阿里巴巴的通义千问如今已成为全球下载量最高的人工智能模型家族。开发者已利用它构建了超过10万个各类专用模型。在OpenRouter——一个允许开发者将任务发送给任选人工智能模型的服务平台——上，来自中国的开放权重模型在2025年连续数周处理的文本量已占全部处理量的20%以上，而在今年春季的连续数周时间里，这一比例更是超过40%；相比之下，2024年，这类中国模型每周处理的文本量占比最低时仅约为1%。

Much of that traffic is American. Airbnb’s customer service agent runs substantially on Qwen; Airbnb’s chief executive, Brian Chesky, has called the model fast and cheap. Cursor, among the most valuable A.I. coding start-ups in the country, built its Composer 2 model on a base licensed from Moonshot. DoorDash now routes the “lower-level work” of its code review system to Kimi, DoorDash’s co-founder Andy Fang reports, reserving an American model for the hardest tasks. More American businesses, attracted by lower costs, are joining these start-ups in using these models.

这些流量中，很大一部分来自美国。Airbnb的客服系统大量运行于通义千问之上，其首席执行官布赖恩·切斯基称赞该模型速度快、成本低。美国最具价值的人工智能编程初创企业之一Cursor则基于月之暗面授权的基础模型开发了自己的Composer 2模型。外送平台DoorDash联合创始人方安迪（音）透露，如今公司已将代码审查系统中的“较低层级工作”交由Kimi完成，只将最困难的任务交由美国模型来做。受成本优势吸引，越来越多的美国企业正在跟随这些初创公司的脚步，转向使用这些中国模型。

This had been China’s plan since 2017: push Chinese models into every market, shape the standards others adopt and pull the world toward the Chinese hardware the models run best on. The country ran the same sequence with solar and telecom equipment and, most notably, critical minerals — building the world’s dependence on cheap rare earths before restricting exports once that dependence was real.

这正是中国自2017年以来一直奉行的战略：将中国的人工智能模型推向全球各个市场，塑造其他国家所采用的技术标准，并进一步推动世界转向那些最适合运行中国模型的中国硬件。中国此前在太阳能产业、通信设备领域，尤其是在关键矿产领域，都采取过同样的路径——先利用廉价稀土建立起全球依赖，再在这种依赖真正形成之后限制出口。

If Chinese labs restrict access now, won’t everyone just switch to a better American model? No, because switching an A.I. model is not like canceling a subscription. It means tearing out a foundation. A European manufacturer running a Chinese model on its own premises, trained on confidential records that cannot legally leave the building, cannot simply swap in a superior American model that costs more to use and runs on someone else’s servers. That dependence is key to China’s strategy. A country that can’t switch off a foreign model has handed China a grip on the systems it runs on.

如果中国实验室现在限制访问，难道大家不会干脆转向一个性能更好的美国模型吗？不会，因为切换人工智能模型不像取消订阅那么简单。这意味着要拆除整个底层基础。一家欧洲制造商如果在本地运行一个中国模型，并用依法不得出境的机密数据对其进行了训练，就无法简单地换入一个使用成本更高、运行在他人服务器上的美国优质模型。这种依赖正是中国战略的关键所在。一个无法摆脱外国模型的国家，就等于把其所运行系统的控制权拱手交给了中国。

Developers outside China should be concerned about what’s next. Everyone building on a Chinese model assumes a better one is coming — free, as it always has been. If China keeps its next generation of models at home, the rest of the world’s builders who rely on something freely modifiable are stuck with an antiquated version, while Chinese firms advance with something more powerful. The gap widens with every release.

中国以外的开发者应当对接下来的走势保持警觉。每一个基于中国模型进行开发的人都默认——未来会有更好的版本推出，并且像以往一样免费。如果中国将下一代模型留在国内，那么世界上那些依赖免费可修改模型的开发者将被困在一个过时的版本里，而中国企业则在更强大版本的加持下不断向前。双方之间的差距将随着每一次新版本发布而不断扩大。

Two U.S. congressional committees have opened investigations into Airbnb and Cursor’s parent company over their use of Chinese models. The Trump administration is reportedly considering effectively barring Americans from using Chinese A.I. models. But banning those models would impede American developers and hand China the claim that its technology is too good for America to compete with fairly. The United States dominates in tech by making its platforms the ones the world’s developers choose to build on, not by banning foreign use.

两个国会委员会已就Airbnb和Cursor的母公司使用中国模型一事展开调查。据报道，特朗普政府正在考虑有效禁止美国人使用中国人工智能模型的措施。但是，禁止这些模型将给美国开发者带来不便，也会给中国提供口实，宣称它的技术先进到美国都无法通过公平竞争来应对。美国在科技领域的主导地位，靠的是让全球开发者都愿意基于美国的平台进行开发，而不是通过禁止外国使用来达成的。

The U.S. government should fund a contract to train an advanced open-weight model. It should stipulate those weights remain permanently open. That contract would give companies in the United States and allied nations a foundation to build on and compete in this arena of A.I. development. OpenAI and Google have released open-weight models, but only occasionally, because nothing rewards them for doing it consistently. The buyers of such a model would be the firms already reaching for Qwen and Kimi as well as the international partners that will not put their data on Chinese servers.

美国政府应当出资建立一个训练先进开放权重模型的项目，并规定这些权重必须永久保持开放。这将为美国及其盟友国家的企业提供一个共同的基础平台，使它们能够在人工智能发展的这一领域展开创新与竞争。OpenAI和Google都发布过开放权重模型，但只是偶尔为之，因为没有任何机制能激励它们持续这样做。这类模型的潜在用户不仅包括那些已经开始采用通义千问和Kimi的企业，也包括那些不愿把数据存放在中国服务器上的国际合作伙伴

Customers that adopt an open-weight American model also need the chips to run it, somewhere to store data and the computing power to put the model to work. That is what the Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank — the government agencies that back U.S. business abroad — should be financing all at once. Chinese models have come to dominate in places like Nairobi and São Paulo because China made them free, packaging the model, the hardware and the financing together. America has the capital and the technology to offer the same package, on better terms, with security standards that even newcomers can meet.

采用美国开放权重模型的用户同样需要运行模型所需的芯片、存储数据的基础设施，以及让模型真正投入使用所需的算力。这正是美国国际开发金融公司和美国进出口银行——这两个负责支持美国企业开展海外业务的政府机构——应当同时提供融资支持的方向。中国的模型之所以能够在内罗毕、圣保罗等地占据主导地位，是因为中国免费提供模型，并将模型、硬件和融资打包在一起。美国拥有足够的资金和技术，完全能够提供同样的整体方案，而且条件更优、安全标准更高，即使是刚起步的国家也能够达到这些标准。

OpenAI and Anthropic’s business is the “frontier”: the hardest, highest-value work, offered to customers that want the best model available and will pay for it. That is not the business an open-weight model takes, where finances or data-sensitivity factor in more heavily. For many U.S. customers, the frontier model keeps the hard work moving, and something cheaper — and easier to tinker with — sits underneath it. The frontier lab gets paid either way.

OpenAI和Anthropic的商业模式立足于“前沿”，也就是承担最困难、价值最高工作的模型，服务对象是那些希望获得当前最优秀模型、并愿意为此付费的客户。开放权重模型面向的并非同一市场——在那里，财务成本或数据敏感性的考量权重更大。对许多美国用户而言，前沿模型负责完成最复杂的任务，而底层则运行着一种更便宜、也更容易进行定制修改的模型。无论哪种情况，前沿模型开发企业都能够获得收益。

The only question is whose model is underneath. It should be an American one.

唯一的问题是：那个底层模型来自哪里。答案应该是美国。

They flocked to New Delhi by the thousands. Young Indians demanding accountability from their government for a flawed education system, hoping for a promise or a signal from those in power that would reassure them about their futures.

数以千计的人涌向新德里。这些年轻的印度人要求政府对有缺陷的教育体系承担责任，希望能从当权者那里得到一个承诺或信号，让他们对自己的未来重拾信心。

Instead, the throng of protesters who tried to march to Parliament on Monday were confronted by security forces, batons in hand, tear gas canisters ready. As the crowd swelled, the police cracked down, striking people’s shins, calves and backs, swinging their staves overheard. Protesters hurled flip flops and water bottles back. Many rushed to escape through back alleys and side roads. Plumes of tear gas left people choking.

然而，周一试图游行前往议会的大批抗议者却遭遇了手持警棍和催泪瓦斯罐待命的安全部队。随着人群不断壮大，警方开始镇压，他们高举警棍，击打人们的小腿胫骨、腿肚子和背部。抗议者则予以回击，向警方投掷人字拖和水瓶。许多人匆忙从后巷和小路逃离。弥漫的催泪瓦斯呛得人们喘不过气来。

The protesters — mostly young people who chanted slogans, carried posters or stood quietly in solidarity — said they were shocked by the police crackdown and the lack of any real government response. By Tuesday, their sense of anger remained palpable as thousands returned to the protest site near Jantar Mantar, an 18th century observatory, undeterred by spurts of monsoon rain.

抗议者大多数是高呼口号、举着标语牌或静静站立以示团结的年轻人，他们表示，警方的镇压以及政府没有做出任何实质性回应令他们感到震惊。到了周二，他们的愤怒情绪依然显而易见，数以千计的人不顾季风带来的阵雨，重返位于18世纪天文台简塔·曼塔附近的抗议现场。

Security forces had removed tents and parts of the main stage at the venue. But Abhijeet Dipke, the founder of the Cockroach Janta Party — a satirical movement that has become a vehicle for the frustrations of millions of young Indians — said that the protest will continue indefinitely. He implored people to keep it peaceful.

安全部队已经拆除了现场的帐篷和主舞台的部分设施。但“蟑螂人民党”的创始人阿比吉特·迪普克表示，抗议活动将无限期地继续下去。他恳求人们保持和平。该党是一个讽刺性运动，已成为数百万计印度年轻人宣泄不满的渠道。

Leaders of the C.J.P. said 150 protesters were taken to the hospital from injuries in the protest on Monday. The Delhi Police said 118 of its officers were injured during “violent protests.” Around 70 protesters were detained, according to lawyers’ groups.

蟑螂人民党的领导人表示，在周一的抗议活动中，有150名抗议者因伤被送往医院。德里警方表示，在“暴力抗议”期间，有118名警察受伤。据律师团体称，约有70名抗议者被拘留。

周一在新德里抗议活动现场的示威者。周一，一名警察向抗议者投掷了一枚催泪瓦斯。

Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not responded publicly to the protests, on Tuesday he spoke through an emissary. Kiren Rijiju, the parliamentary affairs minister, told reporters, “The safety, security and future of our youth are our priority.”

尽管总理莫迪尚未对抗议活动作出公开回应，但他在周二通过一名特使发表了讲话。议会事务部长基伦·里吉朱告诉记者：“我们年轻人的安全、保障和未来是我们的首要任务。”

He also provided assurances that future paper leaks would be prevented.

他还保证，未来将防止试卷泄露事件再次发生。

Mr. Modi rarely responds to critics, so the comments appear to be a sign of the importance the leader has placed on the youth protests and a tacit acknowledgment of the political risk of alienating young voters in a country where more than 40 percent of the population is under the age of 25.

莫迪很少回应批评者，因此这些言论似乎表明这位领导人对青年抗议活动的重视，并且默认了，在一个25岁以下人口超过40%的国家里，疏远年轻选民会带来政治风险。

However, the government has said little in response to the specific demands of the C.J.P., which include the resignation of India’s education minister, whom the C.J.P. holds directly accountable for a shoddy education system and leaks in recent entrance exam papers that forced millions of students to retake their tests.

然而，对于蟑螂人民党的具体诉求，政府几乎没有作出任何回应。这些诉求包括要求印度教育部长辞职——该党认为他应对糟糕的教育体系以及近期入学考试试卷泄露事件负有直接责任，泄题事件迫使数百万学生重考。

“The government is in no mood to understand us and talk to us,” Chandan Mandal, a 19-year-old high school senior from the state of Rajasthan, said on Tuesday. He said he first protested more than a month ago. According to the C.J.P., at least 21 students have died by suicide since the exam leak, unable to handle the stress.

“政府没有心情理解我们、和我们对话，”来自拉贾斯坦邦的19岁高中三年级学生钱丹·曼达尔周二表示。他说他第一次抗议是在一个多月前。据蟑螂人民党称，自试卷泄露事件以来，已有至少21名学生因无法承受压力而自杀。

The police struck him with a baton three times on Monday, Mr. Mandal said. Two reddish bruises, each about three inches long, and an open wound were visible on his back.

曼达尔说，警察周一用警棍打了他三次。在他的背上可以看到两块约七厘米长的微红瘀伤和一处开放性伤口。

“I’m opposing the government itself now,” said Mr. Mandal, who is studying for an entrance exam for engineering school.

“我现在反对的是政府本身，”正在为工程学院入学考试做准备的曼达尔说。

A big reason for the frustration millions of young Indians feel is that there aren’t enough jobs, or that there is a mismatch between available jobs and qualifications, according to economists. A recent, widely cited study from Azim Premji University found that 40 percent of young people under 25 are unemployed, even as access to higher education has increased.

经济学家表示，数以百万计的印度年轻人感到不满的一个重要原因是就业机会不足，或者现有工作与学历资质不匹配。阿齐姆·普雷姆吉大学最近一项被广泛引用的研究发现，尽管接受高等教育的机会增加了，但25岁以下的年轻人中有40%处于失业状态。

The protesters’ most visible slogans as they gathered on Monday morning were less concerned with botched exams than with the government’s overall accountability.

周一上午抗议者聚集时，最引人瞩目的口号与其说是关注搞砸的考试，不如说是关注政府的整体问责。

“India is a Democracy! We Need Answers!” read one, in English. “In Search of the Misguided,” read another, in Hindi, next to a hand-drawn sketch of Mr. Modi.

一条英文标语写道：“印度是一个民主国家！我们需要答案！”另一条印地语标语写着：“寻找被误导的人”，旁边是手绘的莫迪素描。

By the afternoon, the police waded in. Cries of pain rose above the shrill police whistles and sirens of riot control vans. A thin, young woman crouched on a median, as her friends dressed a fresh wound on her forearm and rinsed her face, reddened by tear gas.

到了下午，警察介入了。痛苦的呼喊声盖过了刺耳的警笛和防暴车的警报声。一名瘦弱的年轻女子蹲在马路中间的隔离带上，她的朋友们正在包扎她前臂上的新伤口，清洗她被催泪瓦斯熏红的脸。

At the Janpath subway station nearby, a police van lay overturned on its side, its windshield smashed.

在附近的詹帕特地铁站，一辆警车侧翻倒地，挡风玻璃被砸碎。

Further away from the violence, Wishwas Srivastav, 36, an engine builder, said he had traveled to Delhi from the state of Himachal Pradesh to join the protests.

在远离暴力冲突的地方，36岁的发动机制造工维什瓦斯·斯里瓦斯塔瓦说，他从喜马偕尔邦来到德里参加抗议活动。

“It hasn’t been feeling like democracy here for the past 10 or 15 years,” said Mr. Srivastav. Of the government, he said, “I hope they’re listening.”

“在过去10年或15年里，这里感觉已经不像民主社会了，”斯里瓦斯塔瓦说。在谈到政府时，他说：“我希望他们能听进去。”

周一，一名警察试图用警棍驱散抗议者。警员们正在扶正一辆翻倒的警车。

By Tuesday morning, traffic along Janpath was back to normal, with some of the cross-streets more tightly barricaded. The police van at the metro station had been flipped upright.

到了周二早上，詹帕特的交通恢复了正常，一些十字路口设置了更严密的路障。地铁站旁的警车已被翻转扶正。

At the protest site, volunteers distributed food and drinks to protesters, including burgers from McDonald’s, samosas, water and electrolytes.

在抗议现场，志愿者向抗议者分发食物和饮料，包括麦当劳汉堡、萨莫萨咖喱角、水和电解质饮料。

Abhishek Kumar, 20, sat in the shade, tired after a roughly eight-hour bus ride from his hometown of Kanpur. After watching the protests on social media on Monday and seeing the police beat protesters, he said, he decided to join in person. Mr. Kumar, who recently took an entrance exam to join the armed forces, said he would stay for a few days.

20岁的阿布舍克·库马尔坐在阴凉处，他从家乡坎普尔乘坐了大约八小时的公共汽车赶到这里，显得很疲惫。他说，周一通过社交媒体观看了抗议活动并看到警察殴打抗议者后，他决定亲自加入。库马尔最近刚参加了武装部队的准入考试，他表示自己会在这里待上几天。

Many who gathered were parents worried about the future their children stand to inherit. Mina Ganesh, 51, was at the protest site on Tuesday with her son Miher, 17.

聚集在现场的有很多忧心忡忡的父母，他们担心孩子们的未来。51岁的米娜·加内什周二和她17岁的儿子米希尔一同来到抗议现场。

“Finally someone in the country is willing to speak up,” Ms. Ganesh said. “It took us long enough. Now that we have begun to speak up, there’s no stopping us.”

“在这个国家里终于有人愿意发声了，”加内什说。“我们等得够久了。既然我们已经开始发声，就没有什么能阻止我们。”

Miher, who wants to study either economics or engineering, said he was moved by the actions of Sonam Wangchuk, a prominent education activist who has backed the C.J.P.’s demands and joined its protest with a hunger strike.

米希尔希望攻读经济学或工程学，他被著名教育活动家索南·旺楚克的行为所感动。旺楚克支持蟑螂人民党的诉求，并通过绝食抗议加入了他们的行列。

Mr. Wangchuk is now 23 days into his fast and was forcibly moved to a hospital on Saturday by the government.

旺楚克目前的绝食抗议已进入第23天，他于周六被政府强行送往医院。

“He doesn’t know any of us,” Miher said. “How can I sit at home knowing he’ll die for me?”

“他不认识我们当中任何一个人，”米希尔说。“明知他会为我而死，我怎么还能坐在家里无动于衷？”

Rain lashed a flimsy wooden boat as it tossed through a churning sea, its engine straining against the swell. Under the cover of a stormy night three years ago, the vessel was fleeing North Korea.

三年前一个风雨交加的夜晚，一艘简陋的木船在汹涌的海浪中颠簸，雨水劈头盖脸地打来，发动机在涌浪中吃力轰鸣。借着夜色的掩护，这艘船正逃离朝鲜。

On board were nine people, including two small children and a woman who was six months pregnant. Only a couple of the passengers had seafaring experience. They eluded a patrol ship, speeding across the world’s most heavily guarded maritime border.

船上载着九个人，包括两个幼童和一名怀孕六个月的妇女。其中只有两三个人有航海经验。他们躲过了一艘巡逻船，加速穿越了世界上戒备最为森严的海上边界。

Soon after their boat lurched into South Korean waters, a high-speed warship of the South’s navy bore down on it, tearing the water in aggressive circles. Snipers on the vessel trained their laser sights on the chests of the three adult men on the wooden boat.

就在木船摇摇晃晃驶入韩国海域后不久，韩国海军的一艘高速战舰便迅速逼近，绕着木船划出咄咄逼人的圆弧。战舰上的狙击手将激光瞄准器锁定在木船上三名成年男子的胸口。

Through a loudspeaker, a voice boomed: “Are you lost? Engine trouble?”

扩音器中传来洪亮的声音：“你们是迷航了吗？还是发动机出故障了？”

The North Koreans shouted: “Please help. We are defecting.”

船上的朝鲜人大喊：“请帮帮我们。我们是来投奔韩国的。”

The red dots remained stubbornly fixed on their chests. The South Koreans were taking no chances: The three men were clad in North Korean military uniforms, camouflage for a high-stakes escape. Desperate, the men shouted into the boat’s cramped hold for the other passengers to emerge in order to prove that they were civilians. From below, the two children, a 5-year-old girl and 3-year-old boy, were hauled up first, both pale and wasted from seasickness. Only then did the red dots drop off.

然而，那几个红色激光点依然牢牢停留在他们胸前。韩国方面丝毫不敢掉以轻心，因为这三名男子都穿着朝鲜军装，那是他们为了这场生死逃亡而准备的伪装。情急之下，他们朝狭小的底舱里大喊，让其他人出来，以此证明他们都是平民。最先被拉上来的是两个孩子——一个五岁的女孩和一个三岁的男孩，两人因晕船而脸色苍白、有气无力的样子。直到这时，那几个红点才消失。

The North Koreans, led by Kim Il-hyeok and his younger brother, Yi-hyeok, were bound together by blood and marriage. The brothers, both in their 30s at the time, were accompanied by their mother and their families: Il-heyok’s partner, who was pregnant, and Yi-hyeok’s wife, their two children, his mother-in-law and brother-in-law.

这群朝鲜人由金日赫（音）和弟弟金李赫（音）率领，他们之间或者是血缘关系，或者是姻亲关系。当时兄弟俩都三十多岁，同行的还有他们的母亲以及各自的家人：金日赫怀有身孕的女友，金李赫的妻子、两个孩子、岳母和妻弟。

脱北者金日赫在首尔住处附近，摄于6月。他曾是韩流粉丝，在朝鲜时曾因“资本主义堕落行为”被捕。

The family, who defected in 2023, were among the few who managed to escape North Korea after its leader, Kim Jong-un, imposed a crushing lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic. They arrived in their adopted country with rare insights into a nation that had been choked off from the outside world. Some details of their escape have not been previously reported.

这一大家子于2023年脱北，是朝鲜领导人金正恩在新冠疫情期间实施严厉封锁后少数成功逃离朝鲜的人之一。他们来到新的家园，也带来了一个长期与外界隔绝国家的第一手见闻。他们出逃的部分细节此前从未公开报道过。

“That night,” said Yi-hyeok’s wife, Yu-mi, “we crossed from a sea of darkness to a sea of freedom.”

“那天晚上，”金李赫的妻子柳美（音）说，“我们从黑暗之海穿越到了自由之海。”

A Father’s Wish

父亲的心愿

Over several months of interviews in South Korea, Il-hyeok ​spoke with the same swagger that he had developed as a self-described “troublemaker” in North Korea. Yu-mi ​was reserved, pulling her legs tightly to her chest as she spoke. Her mother, who asked not to be named but agreed to be photographed, weighed every word, fearing how her comments might affect relatives left behind in the North. But they all spoke with conviction about why they had to leave North Korea. (The rest of the extended family declined to be interviewed.)

在韩国接受持续数月的采访期间，金日赫说话时仍带着那股他自认在朝鲜就是个“刺头”时练就的那股桀骜劲。柳美则显得拘谨，说话时总是双腿紧紧蜷在胸前。她的母亲同意接受采访和拍照，但要求不透露姓名，她每说一句话都十分谨慎，担心自己的言论会影响仍留在朝鲜的亲人。然而，他们都以坚定的语气讲述着自己为何不得不离开朝鲜。（其余的家族成员则拒绝接受采访。）

The brothers came from Pyoksong, a county in North Korea’s southwest.

兄弟俩来自朝鲜西南部的碧城郡。

During the famine of the late 1990s, their father, a railway security official, returned with grim accounts from the hardest-hit provinces: The emaciated bodies of children found outside train stations were frozen solid, thumping like frozen fish when they were tossed onto trucks headed to burial grounds. He was the first in the family to lose faith in a ruling class that was unable to feed its people.

20世纪90年代末大饥荒期间，他们的父亲是铁路系统的安全员。他从饥荒最严重的省份回来时，讲述了令人毛骨悚然的见闻：火车站外面那些饿死的儿童瘦骨嶙峋，早已冻得僵硬，被扔上运往墓地的卡车时，像冻鱼一样发出闷响。父亲是家中第一个对这个连温饱都无法保障的统治阶级失去信心的人。

One night after his sons reached adulthood, he took them to a hill and pointed toward a cluster of lights across the South Korean border.

在两个儿子成年后的某个夜晚，他带着他们来到一座山坡上，指着韩国那侧密集的灯火。

“That’s where we should go,” he said. “To live and stand tall.”

“我们应该去那里，”他说，“去活出个人样。”

Yu-mi lived in the ​nearby coastal town of Kangryong. From there, she could see planes glinting in the sun as they rose from Incheon International Airport, just across the water — a shimmering vision of possibility, yet unreachable for North Koreans barred from travel and cut off from the internet.

柳美住在附近的沿海小镇康翎。在那里，她能看到对岸仁川国际机场起飞的飞机在阳光下闪闪发光——那是一幅闪耀着无限可能的景象，却是被禁止出国、与互联网隔绝的朝鲜人永远无法触及的世界。

“Our country felt like a prison without bars,” she said.

“我们的国家就像一座没有围墙的监狱，”她说。

柳美与母亲，摄于6月。柳美形容，脱北是“从黑暗之海穿越到了自由之海”。

Beginning in kindergarten, children sang the anthem “We Have Nothing to Envy,” even as they were mobilized to haul river water or scour hills for herbs and pine nuts.​ After long workdays, adults attended compulsory “life review sessions,” writing self-criticism and pledges of loyalty. When Kim Jong-un visited ​an island near Yu-mi’s town in 2013, soldiers and villagers swarmed into the sea in jubilation. She knew the scene was staged; ordinary residents, she said, had been banned from leaving home.

从幼儿园开始，孩子们便要唱《世上没啥可羡慕》这首歌曲，同时还要组织去河边挑水，或到山上采草药、捡松子。成年人结束一天的劳动后，还必须参加“生活检讨会”，写自我批评和效忠保证书。2013年金正恩视察柳美老家附近的一座岛屿时，士兵和村民们纷纷涌入海中欢呼。她清楚这不过是在作秀——据她说，普通民众那天根本不许离开家门。

In the face of the propaganda, a contraband culture spread. South Korean films and dramas circulated on USB drives smuggled from China. In Kangryong, the devices also arrived inside plastic bottles released by South Korean activists across the water, along with rice and mini-Bibles. Officials warned the bottles contained poison, but South Korean entertainment was winning.

面对官方宣传，走私文化悄然蔓延。韩国电影和电视剧通过从中国走私进来的U盘在民间流传。在康翎，这些U盘也会随着韩国的活动人士从对岸投放的塑料瓶一起漂过来，瓶中还有大米和袖珍版《圣经》。官方警告大家瓶子里有毒，但韩国的娱乐节目依然深受欢迎。

Il-hyeok idolized K-pop groups like Girls’ Generation and styled his hair in a mohawk like BigBang’s Taeyang. He was arrested for “capitalist delinquency” and released only after paying a bribe, his hair razored. He and his friends once secretly watched “Valkyrie,” the Tom Cruise film about the plot to kill Hitler. When the conspirators failed and were executed, his friends wept.

大哥日赫崇拜“少女时代”等韩流组合，还把头发剃成了BigBang乐队成员太阳的同款莫西干造型。他因“资本主义堕落行为”被捕，行贿后才获释，头发被剃光。他和朋友曾偷偷观看汤姆·克鲁斯主演的电影《行动目标希特勒》。当刺杀计划失败、参与者被处决时，他的朋友们都哭了。

The brothers’ notion of deserting North Korea felt just as perilous. Their father forbade them from marrying, reasoning that the larger the family, the greater the risk of being caught while defecting. He then used connections to transfer Yi-hyeok, his youngest, to Kangryong, where he learned navigation, mapped guard posts, and cultivated ties with officials. Yi-hyeok became a helmet diver, who harvests seafood from the ocean floor, breathing fresh air piped through a surface hose. He eventually met Yu-mi.

兄弟俩逃离朝鲜的念头听起来同样凶险万分。父亲不许他们结婚，认为家庭成员越多，逃跑时暴露的风险就越大。随后他利用关系将小儿子调往康翎，在那里他学习了航海技术，绘制了岗哨分布图，并结交官员。金李赫成为了一名潜水员，在海底捕捞海产，靠连接水面的输气管呼吸。后来，他遇到了柳美。

Il-hyeok worked in North Korea’s shadow economy, bribing his way into opportunity and out of trouble. He butchered animals for restaurants, ran a small gold mine and bought rice stolen from state granaries, reselling it at a profit. He also grew disillusioned with the system he was gaming.

大哥日赫一直在朝鲜的地下经济中谋生，靠行贿获得机会，也靠行贿摆脱麻烦。他曾为餐馆屠宰牲畜，经营一个小金矿，还收购从国家粮库偷出来的大米，再转手获利。他也越来越厌倦这个自己一直在设法钻空子的制度。

Then, in 2014, their father died unexpectedly. The South Korean dream seemed to die with him.

然而，到了2014年，他们的父亲突然去世。去往韩国的梦想似乎也随之消散。

Where Il-hyeok, the older brother, was restless, Yi-hyeok was steady. He married Yu-mi in 2017, and the couple soon had their two children. He joined a military-run fisheries company, operating three vessels. Despite a United Nations ban, Chinese buyers worked openly in Kangryong, and on a good day Yi-hyeok could earn more than a typical worker​’s annual salary.

大哥日赫性格不安分，小弟李赫则沉稳踏实。2017年，李赫与柳美成婚，很快就有了两个孩子。他加入了一家军队经营的渔业公司，负责三艘渔船。尽管联合国明令禁止，中国买家仍公开活跃在康翎，运气好的日子，他一天的收入就能超过普通工人一年的薪水。

Il-hyeok began dating a kindergarten teacher. Defection was no longer a priority.

金日赫开始与一名幼儿园教师谈恋爱。逃离朝鲜不再是当务之急。

“When I mentioned it, my brother told me to watch my mouth,” Il-hyeok recalled.

“每当我提起这件事，弟弟都会让我闭嘴，”日赫回忆道。

The pandemic overturned everything.

然而，疫情改变了一切。

Lockdown

封锁

North Korea imposed one of the world’s harshest lockdowns. In Kangryong, access to the sea was closed off with barbed wire and armed guards. Yi-hyeok’s boats rusted and his debts mounted. Officials claimed that South Korea was dumping infected bodies and waste into border waters. Yet boats supplying seafood to the top tiers of society continued to fish.

朝鲜实施了全球最严厉的疫情封锁措施之一。在康翎，通往海边的道路被铁丝网和武装警卫封锁。金李赫的渔船日渐锈蚀，债务越积越多。官方宣称，韩国向边境海域倾倒带有病毒的尸体和垃圾。但与此同时，专门供应高层海鲜的渔船却照常出海。

“The elites still ate whatever they wanted,” Yu-mi said.

“那些有权有势的照样想吃什么就吃什么，”柳美说。

Public executions grew more frequent, targeting those accused of committing violent crimes like murder, which surged during the lockdown, or of distributing “nonsocialist” content such as South Korean dramas. Thousands, including the brothers, were forced to watch as rifle fire cracked across the execution grounds. The crowds dispersed in silence.

公开处决越来越频繁，处决对象包括那些被控犯有谋杀等暴力犯罪的人（这类案件在封锁期间激增），以及传播韩剧等“非社会主义内容”的人。包括兄弟俩在内，数千人被强迫观看处决，枪声在刑场不断响起。人群散去时，一片寂静。

“The goal was to instill fear,” Il-hyeok said. “To erase any fantasy about the outside world.”

“目的就是制造恐惧，”大哥日赫说，“抹去人们对外部世界的一切幻想。”

The Escape

逃离

The brothers no longer argued about whether to leave — only how.

两兄弟不再争论要不要走，只商量怎么走。

By early 2023, North Korea had begun easing its pandemic restrictions. Yi-hyeok’s boats were among the first permitted back to sea. But the window to escape was already closing. The authorities were preparing to install surveillance cameras along the coast to deter defections.

2023年初，朝鲜开始放宽疫情管控。金日赫的船是最早获准重返大海的渔船之一。但出逃的窗口也在迅速关闭——当局准备在沿海岸线安装监控摄像头，以遏制脱北行为。

The brothers spoke in code over the phone. “Good weather” meant a storm was coming, forcing patrol boats back to port. “We’ve got a good catch — come down here” meant Il-hyeok should bring their mother and his girlfriend to Kangryong.

兄弟俩在电话里用暗语交流。“天气好”意思是暴风雨要来了，巡逻船不得不回港。“今天收获不错，下来吧”意思是让大哥带着母亲和女友来康翎。

The weather and the catch were ideal the night of May 6, 2023.

2023年5月6日晚，天气和渔获都很理想。

Yu-mi’s mot​her, a 52-year-old widow, signed up last, just five hours before departure.

柳美52岁的寡母直到出发前五个小时才决定同行。

“I could die trying to escape,” she said. “But if my family reached the South and I stayed behind, I’d be as good as dead anyway — the relative of traitors.”

“我可能会死在逃跑的路上，”她说，“但如果家人都到了韩国，只剩我留在朝鲜，那我也跟死了没什么区别——我会成为叛徒的家属。”

Yi-hyeok’s brother-in-law, his fishing partner, slipped away by boat and waited offshore. The rest of the family crossed a coastal hill strewn with land mines to reach a secluded beach. To carry Yi-hyeok’s two young children more easily, the brothers sealed them inside burlap sacks and hoisted them onto their shoulders. Before they closed the sacks, Yu-mi caught her children looking up at her.

金李赫的妻弟——他的捕鱼搭档——先悄然驾船出海，在近海等候。其余家人翻越一座布满地雷的海岸山丘，来到一处僻静的海滩。为了方便，兄弟俩将弟弟李赫的两个年幼的孩子装进麻袋，扛在肩上。在麻袋合上之前，柳美看到孩子们抬头看着她。

“I thought it might be the last time I’d ever see them,” she said. “I cried, and my husband teared up, too.”

“我当时想，这也许是我最后一次看见他们，”她说，“我哭了，丈夫也流下了眼泪。”

Yi-hyeok’s brother-in-law spotted the prearranged signal — a flashlight blinking three times from the beach — and steered the boat in to pick up the rest of the extended family. Around 10 p.m., the 30-foot-long vessel pulled away, its engine throttled down to little more than a brisk walking pace as it tried to slip quietly toward Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea, just nine miles away.

金李赫的妻弟看到了预先约定的信号——海滩上有手电筒闪三下——便驾船靠近接上大家。晚上10点左右，这艘约九米长的船驶离岸边，引擎收小了油门，速度慢得几乎跟人快步走差不多，他们希望船能悄无声息地驶向仅14.5公里外的韩国延坪岛。

柳美展示部分逃亡路线。在她的家乡，可以看到从韩国仁川国际机场起飞的飞机在阳光下闪闪发光。

Below deck, Yu-mi suddenly felt ​the engine roar to full throttle, filling the hold with black exhaust and leaving the women and children seasick. Her youngest child’s eyes rolled back. She carried him up for fresh air — and found the men on deck in a panic.

在舱底，柳美突然感到引擎全速轰鸣起来，黑色的废气涌入船舱，女人和孩子们相继出现了晕船。最小的孩子翻起了白眼。她抱着孩子上来透气，却发现甲板上的男人们一片慌乱。

“That’s when I saw a searchlight from a North Korean patrol boat sweeping across the waves behind us,” she said. “My heart dropped.”

“就在那时，我看到一艘朝鲜巡逻船的探照灯，正扫过我们身后的海面，”她说，“我的心沉了下去。”

The brothers had already agreed on what to do if they couldn’t outrun a security vessel: strap life jackets and flashlights onto the women and children and send them into the sea, trusting the current to carry them south. The men would steer the boat away as a decoy, making a last stand with 20-inch knives and homemade red-pepper bombs. To lighten the boat, Il-hyeok threw anything heavy overboard — axes, wrenches, fishing net, his brother’s air compressor for helmet diving.

两兄弟早已商量好，万一甩不掉安全船该怎么办：给妇女和孩子套上救生衣，绑上手电筒，推进大海，依靠水流将他们带向南方。男人们则把船朝另一个方向开，吸引追兵，用半米长的刀和自制的辣椒炸弹做最后的抵抗。为了减轻载重，大哥日赫将所有重物扔进了大海——斧头、扳手、渔网，还有弟弟的潜水用空气压缩机。

Gradually, the searchlight behind them faded. The brothers later speculated that the fishing net they had thrown overboard had tangled in the pursuing boat’s propeller.

渐渐地，身后的探照灯消失了。兄弟俩后来推测，可能是他们丢下的渔网缠住了追船的螺旋桨。

Their two-hour gamble ended shortly after midnight, after the South Korean vessel stopped them and all nine family members were brought aboard.

这场历时两个小时的生死赌注在午夜过后不久画上了句点——韩国舰艇拦下了他们，九名家庭成员全部被带上了船。

An officer greeted them: “Welcome to paradise.”

一名军官迎上前来：“欢迎来到天堂。”

New Beginning

新的开始

​In the South, Yu-mi studied to gain an accounting clerk certificate and found work at a school. Her brother enrolled in college, while Yi-hyeok returned to helmet-diving for seafood.

在韩国，柳美通过努力学习拿到了会计助理证书，在一所学校找到了工作。她的弟弟上了大学，金李赫则重操旧业，从事海鲜的潜水采捞工作。

“My brother joked the diving gear here was so advanced he could fall asleep underwater if he wanted to,” Il-hyeok recalled.

“我弟弟开玩笑说，这里的潜水设备太先进了，他要是愿意，甚至可以在海底睡觉。”大哥日赫回忆道。

Il-hyeok’s girlfriend gave birth to their first child in the South. The couple married in 2024 and soon welcomed another daughter. Il-hyeok is finding his footing in the South’s capitalist economy, trying part-time jobs at restaurants and operating forklifts and excavators.

金日赫的女友在韩国生下了他们的第一个孩子。2024年，两人成婚，不久又迎来了一个女儿。他正在努力适应韩国的资本主义经济，一边在餐厅打零工，一边开叉车和挖掘机。

The plunge into the South’s noisy democracy was overwhelming. Televisions offered endless channels — so different from the North, where only government broadcasts existed. Back home, Il-hyeok’s ​used motorbike was a prized status symbol​; now he found himself on highways crowded with modern cars. City squares rang with protests.

一开始，韩国喧闹的民主社会令他们无所适从。电视有数不清的频道，与朝鲜只有官方电视台形成鲜明对比。在朝鲜，金日赫那辆二手摩托车曾是令人艳羡的身份象征，如今他却置身于车水马龙的高速路上。城市广场上不断举行各种抗议活动。

Yu-mi’s mother marveled at faucets that produced both hot and cold water. On her first day working at a nursing home, ​she faltered when colleagues asked for “napkins” — another English word she had never heard. The brothers’ mother was scandalized by a TV drama in which a wife slapped her husband. And when Il-hyeok first ventured beyond Seoul, the South’s capital, he dutifully called a police detective to ask for permission. The detective only laughed.

柳美的母亲惊讶地发现，水龙头竟然既能放热水，也能放冷水。她第一天去养老院上班时，同事让她拿“napkins（餐巾纸）”，这个英语词她从来没听过，一时不知所措。兄弟俩的母亲则被一部电视剧里妻子扇丈夫耳光的情节震惊了。金日赫第一次去首尔以外的地方时，还规规矩矩地给警察打电话，请求批准，结果对方大笑起来。

And then there were elections.

还有选举。

In the North, ​people lined up in formal dress to receive a ballot with only one name. ​They placed ​their vote in the “yes” box with both hands and bowed deeply to portraits of Kim Jong-un’s father and grandfather, who ruled before him. No one dared approach the “no” box.​ When Il-hyeok and his wife voted in June as South Korean citizens, they found voters arriving in shorts and slippers, earphones in place. The ballot was a bewildering list of names.

在朝鲜，人们穿着正式服装排队领取选票，而选票上只有一个名字。他们必须双手把选票投入“赞成”箱，并向朝鲜曾经的统治者——金正恩的父亲和祖父的画像深深鞠躬。没有人敢靠近“反对”箱。而当金日赫和妻子今年6月作为韩国公民参加投票时，他们看到选民穿着短裤、拖鞋，戴着耳机就来投票，选票上密密麻麻印满了候选人姓名，令他们眼花缭乱。

Yet, South Korea was no paradise.

然而，韩国并非天堂。

After 19 months in the South, Yi-hyeok died in a diving accident in late 2024.​ The brothers’ mother and Il-hyeok’s wife were diagnosed with cancer.

来到韩国19个月后，弟弟李赫于2024年底在一次潜水事故中身亡。兄弟俩的母亲和日赫的妻子也相继被诊断出癌症。

Il-hyeok vented frustration at Seoul’s soaring housing prices. He is saving every penny to move his family out of their cramped, government-subsidized rental apartment. Still, he insisted the defection was “100 percent” the right choice.​ Before his death, Yi-hyeok appeared on television, explaining that he fled to spare his children the indoctrination of North Korean schools. His daughter is now a second grader at a South Korean school, and his son is in kindergarten. The children adapted fastest to their new lives, quickly embracing South Korean staples like fried chicken and pizza.

金日赫对首尔飞涨的房价满腹牢骚。他正拼命攒钱，希望带家人搬离现在这套狭小的政府廉租房。但他仍坚持认为，这次逃离“百分之百”是正确的选择。金李赫生前曾在电视节目中表示，他离开朝鲜是为了让孩子免受学校的洗脑教育。如今，他的女儿在韩国读小学二年级，儿子则在上幼儿园。两个孩子适应新生活的速度最快，很快就爱上了炸鸡和披萨等韩国日常美食。

“My husband gave me and our children the freedom he promised before he died,” Yu-mi said.

“我丈夫兑现了他生前的承诺，把自由留给了我和孩子们，”柳美说。

The brothers also honored their father’s final wish: When their boat fled North Korea, they carried his ashes with them.

兄弟俩也兑现了父亲的遗愿：他们的船逃离朝鲜时，带上了父亲的骨灰。

金日赫展示他在首尔举行的婚礼的照片。他们脱北时，他现在的妻子已怀有六个月身孕。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he spoke with China’s top diplomat on Wednesday about a state visit scheduled for September by Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to Washington, where President Trump intends to try to bolster what he sees as a personal friendship the two men are developing.

国务卿鲁比奥表示，他周三与中国最高外交官就中国领导人习近平定于9月对华盛顿进行的国事访问进行了磋商。特朗普总统打算借此机会努力巩固他眼中两人正在建立的个人友谊。

The fact that the two nations’ top diplomats spent much of a meeting in Manila talking about the visit is the strongest sign yet that the summit is on schedule, despite remarks last week from Mr. Trump blaming China for trying to interfere in American elections.

在马尼拉的会晤中，两国最高外交官将大部分时间用于讨论此次访问。这是迄今为止最为强烈的信号，表明峰会正在按计划进行，尽管特朗普上周发表言论，指责中国试图干预美国选举。

“It’s just to create the groundwork for another positive visit,” Mr. Rubio said of his talk with Wang Yi after it ended in the evening after more than an hour. “I think President Xi will have a very positive visit when he comes to Washington.”

“这只是为了给又一次积极的访问奠定基础，”鲁比奥在晚上结束了与王毅一个多小时的会谈后这样评价。“我认为习近平主席来到华盛顿时，将进行一次非常积极的访问。”

He said that the two governments were putting in place a board of trade and a separate board of investment, and that more details would be announced during the September summit. The two leaders agreed to establish the groups when Mr. Trump visited Beijing in May, more than half a year after he had to retreat from a trade war he had started with China.

他表示，两国政府正在设立一个贸易委员会和一个独立的投资委员会，更多细节将在9月的峰会上公布。今年5月特朗普访问北京时，两国领导人同意成立这两个机构，此时距离特朗普被迫从自己挑起的对华贸易战中退却，已过去了半年多。

Mr. Rubio told reporters traveling with him that he and Mr. Wang did not talk about Mr. Trump’s recent accusations that China had tried to interfere in U.S. elections, mainly in 2020. The intelligence material that Mr. Trump brought up in a speech last Thursday was not new and had been reviewed by U.S. officials years ago. U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia is the main rival that has tried to interfere in American elections.

鲁比奥告诉随行记者，他与王毅没有谈论特朗普最近关于中国试图干预美国选举（主要是在2020年）的指控。特朗普在上周四的演讲中提到的情报材料并不新鲜，几年前就已被美国官员审阅。美国情报机构得出的结论是，俄罗斯才是试图干预美国选举的主要对手。

周三，美国国务卿鲁比奥（右）在马尼拉与中国外交部长王毅（左）举行了双边会晤。

The Chinese foreign ministry has given pro forma statements pushing back on Mr. Trump’s accusations. But it has also indicated that Chinese officials understand that the American president made his speech for the purposes of domestic politics rather than out of actual foreign policy concerns.

中国外交部发表了例行声明，反驳特朗普的指控。但中方也暗示，中国官员知道美国总统发表该演讲是出于国内政治目的，而不是出于实际的外交政策顾虑。

“Obviously, there are areas of great differences,” Mr. Rubio said of U.S.-China relations. “Both sides will acknowledge that we’ll have to work through those, and I think these differences will exist for the foreseeable future.”

“显然，双方在一些领域存在巨大分歧，”鲁比奥在谈到美中关系时说。“双方都会承认，我们必须解决这些问题，而且我认为这些分歧在可预见的未来仍将存在。”

Mr. Rubio was in Manila for an annual conference of top diplomats from Southeast Asian nations. Mr. Wang and Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s top diplomat, are also in Manila this week.

鲁比奥当时在马尼拉参加东南亚国家最高外交官年度会议。王毅和俄罗斯最高外交官拉夫罗夫本周也在马尼拉。

Mr. Rubio accompanied Mr. Trump on his visit to Beijing in May, where Mr. Xi showered the American president with flattery — even saying he supported the “Make America Great Again” movement — and hosted a state banquet. A video showed Mr. Rubio marveling at the ceiling of a meeting room in the Great Hall of the People, next to Tiananmen Square. During his 14 years as a senator representing Florida, Mr. Rubio became one of the leading China hawks in Congress, but he has since tempered his tone to stay in alignment with Mr. Trump.

卢比奥曾在5月陪同特朗普访问北京，期间习近平对美国总统大加赞誉——甚至表示支持“让美国再次伟大”运动——并举办了国宴。一段视频显示，鲁比奥在天安门广场旁的人民大会堂的一个会议室里，对天花板赞叹不已。在担任代表佛罗里达州的参议员的14年间，鲁比奥曾是国会中主要的对华鹰派人物之一，但此后他缓和了语气，与特朗普保持一致。

In the Manila meeting with Mr. Rubio, Mr. Wang protested “recent negative remarks and actions by the U.S. side,” but also hailed the leadership summit in Beijing, according to an official summary of the talks posted by Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency. “Our responsibility now is to follow the course set by the two heads of state,” Mr. Wang said.

根据中国国家通讯社新华社发布的会谈官方摘要，在马尼拉与鲁比奥的会晤中，王毅对“近期美方的一系列消极言行”表示抗议，但也高度评价了北京的领导人峰会。“现在我们的责任是，沿着两国元首设定的轨道，”王毅说。

Mr. Rubio was asked by a reporter whether China and Russia were giving information to Iran to help the Iranian military fire projectiles at U.S. troops, as some U.S. officials have said was happening. Mr. Rubio did not give a direct answer.

有记者问鲁比奥，中俄两国是否如一些美国官员所称的那样，正在向伊朗提供信息，帮助伊朗军队向美军发射弹药。鲁比奥没有给出直接回答。

“Nothing that’s happened, nothing that China has done, has in any way changed the trajectory of what you’re seeing in terms of the conflicts we’re having with Iran,” he said.

“没有发生任何事情、也没有中国采取的任何行动在任何方面改变了你们所看到的我们与伊朗冲突的进程，”他说。

Mr. Rubio said China is unhappy with Iran’s attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the transport of oil and gas to China and many other countries.

鲁比奥表示，中国对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击商业油轮感到不满，该海峡是向中国和其他许多国家运输石油和天然气的关键水道。

Mr. Rubio did criticize recent aggressive encroachments by Chinese coast guard ships into waters near Taiwan. In recent years, China has increased its naval and aerial military operations around Taiwan, a de facto independent island that Mr. Xi has said must eventually be brought under the control of the Chinese government.

鲁比奥确实批评了中国海警船近期对台湾附近水域咄咄逼人的入侵行为。近年来，中国增加了在台湾周边的海空军事行动，台湾是一个事实上的独立岛屿，习近平曾表示该岛最终必须置于中国政府的控制之下。

Mr. Rubio said the activity of Chinese ships “comes up in every one of our meetings because we obviously disagree with those actions, and we actually think that they run contrary to the spirit of what we’re trying to work out with them with regards to strategic stability.”

鲁比奥说，中国船只的活动“在我们每一次会议中都会被提及，因为我们显然不赞同这些行动，而且我们实际上认为，这些行动违背了我们在战略稳定方面试图与中国达成的共识精神”。

Mr. Rubio said the United States would honor treaty commitments made to allies such as the Philippines, whose navy regularly has hostile encounters with Chinese vessels.

鲁比奥表示，美国将履行对菲律宾等盟友的条约承诺，菲律宾海军经常与中国船只发生敌对交锋。

“It speaks to areas of disagreement when it comes to our policies with China,” he said. “Those need to be managed very carefully because, obviously, a conflict, be it economic or otherwise, between the U.S. and China would have a dramatic global impact.”

“这反映了我们在对华政策上存在的不一致，”他说。“这些不一致需要非常谨慎地处理，因为很明显，美中之间的冲突，无论是经济冲突还是其他方面的冲突，都会产生巨大的全球影响。”

Mr. Rubio also said the United States would like to eventually have detailed discussions about nuclear issues with China, given the country’s rapidly growing arsenal.

鲁比奥还表示，鉴于中国不断迅速扩大的核武库，美国希望最终能与中国就核问题进行详细讨论。

Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin are drastically different men, but they do have one important thing in common: Each thinks he is the smartest person in any room he enters. Alas, though, because they have all done the dumbest thing you can do as a leader — surround yourself with sycophants — they have all blundered into dead-end wars from which they can extricate themselves today only by eating a banquet of crow.

特朗普、内塔尼亚胡和普京是三个截然不同的人，但他们有一个重要的共同点：自以为是所到之处最聪明的那个人。然而可叹的是，他们都犯了领导者所能犯下的最愚蠢的错误——让身边围满了阿谀奉承之徒。结果，他们都一头撞进了没有出路的战争死胡同，如今只有咽下满满一盘认输的苦果才能脱身。

Watch out. There is nothing more dangerous than a reckless leader faced with a plate of crow: Sometimes his instinct is to double down on a losing strategy instead.

当心。没有什么比一个鲁莽的领导者面对一盘苦果更危险的了：有时，他的本能反应是在一条输定的道路上继续加码。

Let’s start with the Israeli prime minister. The tell that Netanyahu has gone off the rails — and taken the leadership of the famed Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad, with him — is reflected in two decisions he made that were flat-out crazy: The first is that Israel could topple the Tehran regime with one big blow from the air, and the second was that it could choose Iran’s new leader.

我们先说以色列总理。内塔尼亚胡已经脱轨的迹象——并且把大名鼎鼎的以色列情报机构摩萨德的领导层也一并带偏——体现在他做出的两个完全疯狂的决定上：第一，以色列可以凭借一次大规模空中打击推翻德黑兰政权；第二，它可以替伊朗选择新的领导人。

Before I explain just how crazy that was, some quick background: Ever since I saw up close how the Lebanese Christian militia, the Phalangists, helped sucker the Mossad in 1982 into thinking that through a quick invasion Israel could install the Phalangists’ anti-Palestinian leader, Bashir Gemayel, as president in Beirut, I have held the following rule when it comes to the vaunted Israeli intelligence service: If you want someone assassinated in Beirut or Tehran, call the Mossad. If you want to understand political and social trends in Beirut or Tehran, do not call the Mossad. Because the very reason it is good at the first also leads it to be bad at the second.

在我解释这何其荒唐之前，先交代一点背景：自从1982年我亲眼目睹黎巴嫩基督教民兵组织长枪党如何协助诱骗摩萨德、使其以为以色列可以通过一次快速入侵将长枪党反巴勒斯坦的领袖巴希尔·杰马耶勒扶植为贝鲁特总统之后，我就对这个被吹得神乎其神的以色列情报机构确立了如下原则：如果你想在贝鲁特或德黑兰暗杀某个人，那就找摩萨德；如果你想了解贝鲁特或德黑兰的政治和社会走势，那就千万别找摩萨德。因为摩萨德擅长前者的原因，恰恰也导致了它不擅长后者。

The Mossad is very good at hunting and killing Israel’s foes, in large part because it is very skilled at recruiting disgruntled citizens in Lebanon, Iran, the West Bank and elsewhere in the Arab world — that is, people who hate their regimes and are willing to work with Israel to topple them. The problem is that these very same agents, motivated either by grievance or money, tend to exaggerate how weak their regime is and how easy bringing it down would be.

摩萨德之所以擅长追捕并清除以色列的敌人，很大程度上是因为它极善于在黎巴嫩、伊朗、约旦河西岸及阿拉伯世界其他地方招募心怀不满的当地人——也就是那些痛恨本国政权、愿意与以色列合作将其推翻的人。问题在于，这些线人无论出于怨恨还是金钱驱使，都倾向于夸大本国政权的脆弱程度，以及推翻它有多么容易。

They want Israel to do the dirty work for them. The result is that a dupe like Trump, who doesn’t know any history, assumes that because the Mossad is good at assassinating people, it is equally good at predicting what will happen the morning after they are dead.

他们想让以色列替自己做脏活。结果就是，像特朗普这样不了解历史的冤大头会以为，既然摩萨德擅长暗杀，那它也一定擅长预测暗杀对象死后的局势会如何发展。

That explains why, after the White House meeting in February when Netanyahu and the Mossad’s director at the time, David Barnea, essentially argued that if Israel and the United States assassinated Iran’s top leaders, the government would fall and nice people would take over, Trump did not laugh them out of the room. The president apparently assumed that because the Mossad had super assassination powers it also had super analytical powers, and therefore Iran would tumble into his lap the same way Venezuela did when the U.S. removed its president, Nicolás Maduro.

这也就解释了为什么在今年2月白宫的会面中，当内塔尼亚胡和当时的摩萨德局长达维德·巴尔内亚基本上是在说——只要以色列和美国联手暗杀伊朗最高层领导人，伊朗政府就会垮台，然后一群好人便会接管政权时，特朗普并没有把他们当场轰出会议室。总统显然认为，既然摩萨德拥有超强的暗杀能力，那它也一定拥有超强的分析能力，因此伊朗也会像美国推翻委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后那样，轻而易举地落入他的手中。

As my colleagues Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan reported in their must-read book, “Regime Change,” C.I.A. director John Ratcliffe used one word to describe Netanyahu’s Iran regime change scenarios: “farcical.” Trump, confident that he knew better, ignored him and others — and has been paying the price ever since.

正如我的同事玛吉·哈伯曼和乔纳森·斯旺在他们那本不可不读的新书《政权更迭》(Regime Change)中所记载的，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫当时用一个词来形容内塔尼亚胡的伊朗政权更迭方案——荒唐透顶。特朗普自信地认为自己比所有人都更高明，无视了拉特克利夫等人的警告，而为此付出的代价也延续至今。

The even bigger tell that both Netanyahu and his intelligence agency had become drunk with power was another incredible story The Times uncovered: that Mossad had been grooming former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to take over Iran after the government of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was wiped out. As my colleagues reported: “Israel’s decision to build a regime-change plan around Mr. Ahmadinejad is an extraordinary twist in the saga of the country’s relations with the former president, who was known for accelerating Iran’s nuclear program, calling regularly for the destruction of Israel and denying the Holocaust.”

另一个更能说明内塔尼亚胡及其情报机构已经被权力冲昏头脑的证据是《纽约时报》披露的另一则令人难以置信的消息：摩萨德竟一直在扶植伊朗前总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德，准备在最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊政权被消灭后，由他接掌伊朗政权。正如我的同事报道的那样：“以色列决定围绕艾哈迈迪-内贾德制定一项政权更迭计划，这在该国与这位前总统的关系史中堪称戏剧性的转折——艾哈迈迪-内贾德曾因加速伊朗核计划、经常呼吁消灭以色列以及否认犹太人大屠杀闻名。”

Hello, Israel? Do you know anything about modern Iranian history? Have you ever heard of Mohammad Mossadegh? He was the democratically elected prime minister of Iran from 1951 to 1953 who was ousted by a coup engineered by the C.I.A. and Britain’s MI6 after Iran nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Fury over that coup, which installed the West’s man in Tehran, still burns in the heart of many Iranians.

喂，以色列？你们了解现代伊朗历史吗？你们听说过穆罕默德·摩萨台吗？他是1951年至1953年伊朗民选总理，在伊朗将英伊石油公司国有化后，遭到中央情报局与英国军情六处联手策动的政变推翻。那场政变扶植了一个亲西方的政权上台，而伊朗人至今仍对这场政变怒火难消。

The sheer madness that Israel thought it could install Ahmadinejad — and that the Iranian body politic would not reject him the way a human body rejects an organ implant — is insane. Did Netanyahu and the Mossad really think that proud, nationalistic Iranians, even those who hate the clerics governing them, would say: “Oh, thank you, Bibi, for installing our next leader?” The vanity and overreach in thinking that 7.2 million Israeli Jews could decide who would rule more than 90 million Iranian Muslims is astounding.

以色列竟然认为自己可以扶植艾哈迈迪-内贾德上台——而伊朗举国上下不会像人体排斥移植器官一样排斥他，这种想法简直疯狂。内塔尼亚胡和摩萨德难道真的以为，那些骄傲而富有民族主义情绪的伊朗人——哪怕他们痛恨统治自己的宗教神权集团——会说：“哦，谢谢你，比比（内塔尼亚胡的昵称——译注），谢谢你替我们安排好了下一任领导人。”认为720万以色列犹太人能够决定9000多万伊朗穆斯林由谁统治，这种自负和越界令人瞠目结舌。

Trump and Netanyahu are in good company with Putin, who drank his own Kool-Aid by assuming that Ukrainians were all dying to become part of Mother Russia again and that the democratically elected regime in Kyiv would easily fall.

特朗普和内塔尼亚胡在这方面并不孤独，普京与他们为伍——他迷信自己编织的神话，以为乌克兰人都迫不及待地想重归俄罗斯母亲的怀抱，相信基辅那个民主选举产生的政权会轻易倒台。

“Putin’s most fundamental error was believing his own narrative that Ukrainians and Russians were ‘one people’ and that Ukrainian independence was merely an artificial Western construct,” Robbin Laird, a military analyst, noted last year. “This ideological blind spot led him to expect that Russian forces would be welcomed as liberators.”

军事分析人士罗宾·莱尔德去年指出：“普京最根本的错误就是相信了自己那套关于乌克兰人与俄罗斯人是‘一个民族’，乌克兰独立不过是西方人为制造的产物。正是这种意识形态上的盲点使他以为俄罗斯军队会被乌克兰人当作解放者来欢迎。”

In a perfect echo of what happened in Iran, Russian intelligence appeared to have relied too heavily “on pro-Russian sources who told Moscow what it wanted to hear,” Laird said, “rather than providing accurate ground truth about Ukrainian sentiment and capabilities.”

与伊朗的情况如出一辙，俄罗斯情报部门似乎过度依赖“亲俄消息来源，他们告诉莫斯科的都是莫斯科想听的话”，莱尔德说道，“而不是如实呈现乌克兰民情和实力的真实情况。”

Netanyahu, for all his tactical victories over Hamas, Hezbollah and Tehran, has not converted any of it into a new strategic reality for Israel. That would require him to make clear that his military operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran were meant to make the region safe for an Israeli-Palestinian peace.

尽管内塔尼亚胡在对哈马斯、真主党以及德黑兰的行动中取得了一系列战术上的胜利，但他并没有把这些胜利转化为以色列新的战略现实。要做到这一点，他必须明确表示，自己在加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的军事行动是为了让这一地区有朝一日实现以巴和平而扫清障碍。

Instead, what the whole world sees is Netanyahu trying to make the region safe for an Israeli annexation of Gaza and the West Bank, and his being ready to throw away everything else — normalization with Saudi Arabia, the support of many young Americans, the support of the Democratic Party, the support of Western Europe and the independence of Israel’s judiciary — to get it.

然而，全世界看到的却是，内塔尼亚胡试图让这一地区变得适合以色列吞并加沙和约旦河西岸，并准备为此抛弃其他一切——包括与沙特阿拉伯关系正常化、许多美国年轻人的支持、民主党的支持、西欧国家的支持，以及以色列司法体系的独立性。

Meanwhile, Trump has weakened and isolated America by lazily choosing to invade Iran with no allies, no international legitimation and no Plan B to eliminate Tehran’s ability to build a weapon of mass destruction. Instead, Trump enabled Iran to discover two incredibly cheap and effective weapons of mass disruption: controlling the Strait of Hormuz and bombing America’s Persian Gulf allies nearly every time Trump bombs Iran.

与此同时，特朗普因为懒得认真谋划，在没有盟友、没有国际合法性、也没有备选方案来彻底消除德黑兰制造大规模杀伤性武器能力的情况下，就贸然入侵伊朗，从而削弱了美国，也让美国更加孤立。相反，特朗普反而让伊朗发现了两种成本极低却极其有效的大规模破坏性武器：控制霍尔木兹海峡，以及几乎每当特朗普轰炸伊朗时，就轰炸美国在波斯湾的盟友。

And Putin — instead of doing the hard work of making Russia a free and open society that Ukrainians actually might be attracted to — has turned what was a weak Russian democracy into a full-blown police state, with a vulnerable petro-economy. Today, Russia is nowhere to be found in the A.I. revolution. It is as if cars were just invented and Putin said he’d prefer to invest in more horses — and his 19th-century fantasy of a unified Russian Motherland.

而普京——他没有踏踏实实地把俄罗斯建设成一个真正自由开放、能够吸引乌克兰人的社会，反而把原本脆弱的俄罗斯民主政体变成了一个彻头彻尾的警察国家，并依赖充满风险的石油经济。如今，在人工智能革命中，俄罗斯几乎毫无存在感。这就好比汽车刚刚问世，普京却说，他更愿意投资更多的马匹，以及他那个关于统一“俄罗斯母亲”的19世纪幻想。

What we have today is three leaders all now trying to bomb their way out of a blind alley.

我们今天看到的，是三个领导者都在试图用轰炸来杀出死胡同。

But let us not forget the twisted, cynical, incompetent leaders who have been running Iran since 1979. They, too, are in their own cul-de-sac. Instead of empowering their talented population, Iran’s clerical dictators chose to ensconce themselves in power for 47 years by gunning down opponents, cramming puritanical Islam down the throats of their people and wasting billions of dollars trying to destroy Israel.

但我们也不要忘记那些自1979年以来一直统治伊朗的扭曲、冷酷自私、无能的领导人。他们也同样困在自己的死胡同里。伊朗的神权独裁者非但没有赋能他们才华横溢的人民，而是通过枪杀反对者、把严苛的宗教教条强行灌输给人民，以及浪费数十亿美元试图摧毁以色列，让自己在权力宝座上盘踞了47年。

Let us hope that one day their people will topple them on their own, maybe with help from a surprising, nonsovereign power. Iran’s leaders recklessly over-exploited their environment and recklessly dammed up too many rivers to reward regime cronies and are now totally vulnerable to a much more powerful foe than Trump or Netanyahu: Mother Nature. The most harrowing report about Iran’s future was put out seven months ago by analysts writing in the highly regarded Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — and it never mentioned nuclear weapons. It mentioned only the nation’s acute water crisis, which may have shut down more Iranian institutions than Israel and America combined.

但愿有一天，伊朗人民能够依靠自己的力量推翻他们，也许还会得到一种出人意料、并非主权国家的力量的帮助。伊朗领导人肆无忌惮地掠夺本国环境，又为了奖赏政权亲信而肆意修建水坝、截断太多河流，如今他们面对的敌人比特朗普或内塔尼亚胡都更强大——那就是大自然。七个月前，备受推崇的《原子科学家公报》(Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)上有一篇分析报告，对伊朗未来作出了最令人不寒而栗的预测，而全文竟一次都没有提到核武器。它谈到的只有伊朗严峻的水资源危机，而这场危机对伊朗机构造成的瘫痪可能已经超过了以色列和美国联手造成的影响。

“During the summer of 2025, Iran experienced an exceptional heat wave, with daytime temperatures across several regions, including Tehran, approaching 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) and forcing the temporary closure of public offices and banks,” the analysts said. “During this period, major reservoirs supplying the Tehran region reached record-low levels. … Officials warned that the capital city may even have to be evacuated if water supplies fail to recover.”

“2025年夏季，伊朗经历了一场极端热浪，包括德黑兰在内的多个地区白天气温接近50摄氏度，迫使公共办公室和银行临时关闭，”分析人士写道。“在此期间，为德黑兰地区供水的主要水库水位降至历史最低……官员们警告，如果供水状况无法恢复，首都甚至可能不得不疏散。”

Bottom line, eventually all these conflicts will end in negotiations, because none of these leaders can sustain their stupid wars indefinitely. The only question is when they will have to call the waiter over and say: “Young man, could you please bring me a plate of crow.”

一言以蔽之，所有这些冲突最终都将以谈判收场，因为这些领导人没有一个能够无限期地维持他们的愚蠢战争。唯一的问题只是：他们何时才不得不招手唤来服务员，说一句：“年轻人，能不能给我端上一盘认输的苦果。”

Monday was Sea Day in Japan, a public holiday when many people escape the summer heat by swimming, surfing and lounging at the beach. But not Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

周一是日本的“海之日”，这是一个公共假日，许多人趁此机会去游泳、冲浪、在海滩消夏。但首相高市早苗并没有休息。

Ms. Takaichi spent the holiday weekend rereading policy documents and dealing with a backlog of thousands of emails, according to a social media post on Tuesday. She wrote that she eked out a “full five hours of sleep for the first time in ages” — better than the “zero to three hours” she said she is accustomed to. And she said she spent her limited free time ironing undergarments, sewing fraying skirts and reinforcing loose jacket buttons.

她周二在社交媒体发文，称此次三连休期间都在重读政策文件，处理积压的数千封电子邮件。她写道，“久违地睡了五个小时”，比已经成为常态的“零至三小时睡眠”好多了。她还说，在难得的空闲时间里，她熨烫了内衣、缝补了裙摆和松动的外套纽扣。

With her comments, Ms. Takaichi seemed eager to present herself as a down-to-earth leader who doesn’t stop working on behalf of Japan’s citizens. Instead, her post, which has been viewed more than 31 million times, has set off a national debate about work-life balance and the hazards of sleep deprivation.

高市早苗似乎想通过这些言论把自己塑造成一个脚踏实地、为日本国民不停工作的领导人。然而，她那篇浏览量已超过3100万次的贴文却在日本引发了一场关于工作与生活平衡以及睡眠不足危害的全国性讨论。

Toru Kunishige, an opposition lawmaker, warned that a prolonged lack of sleep “impairs judgment — much like a state of intoxication — and could pose a risk to national crisis management.”

反对党议员国重彻警告说，长期睡眠不足“会损害判断力——就像醉酒一样——可能给国家危机管理带来风险”。

Hiroyuki Konishi, another critic of Ms. Takaichi in Parliament, called for her resignation, saying, “The prime minister’s actual job is to set policy directions and issue instructions, not to pore over every last detail of a document.”

高市早苗在国会的另一位批评者、议员小西洋之呼吁她辞职，称“首相的真正职责是制定政策方向并下达指示，而不是逐字逐句地审阅文件的每一个细节”。

Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of a populist conservative party, described Ms. Takaichi as hard-working but added that “resting is also a job.”

民粹保守派政党领袖玉木雄一郎肯定了高市早苗的勤勉，但同时指出“休息也是工作”。

Ms. Takaichi’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

对于置评请求，高市早苗的办公室未立即作出回应。

Some commentators argued that Ms. Takaichi, the first woman to serve as prime minister in Japan, should be given more support in her position. While previous leaders often relied on their wives for help at home, Ms. Takaichi appeared to be tackling more domestic duties, according to Yoko Iwama, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

一些评论人士认为，作为日本首位女首相，高市早苗理应在工作中获得更多支持。东京政策研究大学院大学的教授岩间阳子指出，以往的首相往往依赖妻子承担家庭事务，而高市似乎不得不亲自处理更多家务。

“Establishing a support system that allows a Japanese prime minister to focus entirely on their duties — without having to handle household chores personally — would contribute to women’s advancement in society,” Ms. Iwama wrote in the Nikkei, a prominent business newspaper.

岩间在日本知名财经报纸《日本经济新闻》撰文称：“建立一套支持机制，使日本首相能够全身心投入公务而无需亲自处理家务，将有助于推动女性在社会中的发展。”

Ms. Takaichi has been in overdrive recently to get her legislative priorities passed before Parliament breaks for the summer on Saturday. She is also grappling with continuing economic troubles — the yen has hit a 39-year low — and a recent dip in popularity, though her approval ratings remain relatively high.

近来，高市一直处于超负荷工作状态，希望赶在国会于本周六进入夏季休会之前通过她优先推动的各项法案。与此同时，她还必须应对持续的经济困境——日元汇率已跌至39年来的新低——以及近期支持率下滑的问题，尽管其整体民望仍维持在相对较高的水平。

In her post, Ms. Takaichi wrote at length about her recent workload. She said that since early July, “from early morning until late at night,” she had been holed up on weekends at her residence “poring over thick stacks of documents.”

在帖子中，高市早苗详细描述了近来繁重的工作状态。她说，进入7月以后的周末，“从清晨到深夜”，她都把自己关在首相官邸，“与堆积如山的文件搏斗”。

She also shared personal details, saying she was “terrible at ironing and it takes forever.” But, she said, after her holiday ironing session, she “secured enough handkerchiefs and undergarments to last until the end of the session.”

她还分享了一些个人生活细节，称自己“特别不擅长熨烫，花的时间总是很长”。不过，她也表示，经过假期的熨烫，“到国会会期结束前，手帕和内衣都够用了”。

“I can dive back in and give it my all starting tomorrow!” she wrote.

“明天又能加油了！”她写道。

Ms. Takaichi’s allies have come to her defense, praising her for offering a candid view of the pressures of balancing work with personal commitments.

高市早苗的盟友纷纷为她辩护，称赞她坦诚地展现了在工作与私事之间寻求平衡的重重压力。

Ayano Kunimitsu, a vice foreign minister, said that Ms. Takaichi, like other politicians, faced pressure to manage chores on her own.

外务副大臣国光文乃表示，高市早苗和其他政治人物一样，也面临着必须亲自处理家务的压力。

“Each person has their own circumstances and behind-the-scenes stories,” Ms. Kunimitsu wrote on X. “I would be grateful if you could understand.”

“每个人都有自己的情况和难处，”国光文乃在X平台上写道。“如果大家能理解，我会很感激。”

Japan has a reputation for long working hours, with days at some corporations exceeding 12 hours. In business and government, workers face pressure to stay at the office until superiors have left for the day and to log excessive amounts of overtime, which is seen as a sign of loyalty and diligence.

日本一直以工作时间过长而著称，一些企业的员工每天工作时间超过12小时。在企业和政府部门，员工普遍承受着一种压力：必须等到上司离开后才能下班，并且经常加班很长时间，因为加班被视为忠诚和勤奋的表现。

There have been high-profile cases in Japan in recent years of karoshi, or “death from overwork.” The issue came into the spotlight in 2016, when Matsuri Takahashi, an employee of Dentsu, the advertising giant, died by suicide after clocking more than 100 hours of overtime per month. Her death prompted the government to impose a limit of 45 hours of overtime per month, which some experts say has helped ease the work culture, especially for young people.

近年来，日本发生过多起备受关注的“过劳死”案例。2016年，广告巨头电通的员工高桥茉莉在每月加班超过100小时后自杀身亡。她的死促使政府设定了每月45小时的加班上限。一些专家认为，这项改革有助于改善日本的职场文化，尤其是对年轻人而言。

Since entering politics in the 1990s, Ms. Takaichi, who aspires to be a transformative leader, has made her work ethic a central part of her identity. Upon taking office as prime minister last year, she promised to “work, work, work, work and work.” She has skillfully deployed social media to highlight her busy schedule, writing a lengthy post in January about dealing with geopolitical issues while moving into the prime minister’s residence during the holiday season.

自1990年代踏入政界以来，立志成为变革型领导人的高市早苗一直把勤奋工作作为自己政治形象的核心。去年出任首相时，她曾承诺要“工作、工作、工作、工作、再工作”。她也很会用社交媒体展示自己的繁忙日程——今年1月，她曾发长文描述自己在假期期间一边处理地缘政治问题、一边搬进首相官邸的经历。

This is not the first time her habits have come under scrutiny. In November, she drew criticism for summoning her aides at 3 a.m. She later explained that her fax machine at home had broken, and she needed her staff’s help getting to another office so she could prepare for a meeting.

这并非她的工作习惯第一次受到质疑。去年11月，她曾因凌晨3点召集助手而受到批评。事后她解释称，是因为家里的传真机坏了，她需要工作人员协助前往另一间办公室，以便准备一场会议。

Young people in India — 40 percent of the world’s biggest country — have been taught that they are inheriting a country that is shining brightly, thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. Their disillusionment, with a lack of jobs and a troubled education system, now poses one of the biggest challenges to his popularity in 12 years in power.

印度的年轻人——占这个世界人口第一大国总人口的40%——一直被灌输这样的观念：得益于总理莫迪的领导，他们继承了一个光芒四射的国家。如今，由于缺乏就业机会和教育体系问题重重，他们如今的幻灭感对莫迪执政12年来的支持率构成了最大挑战之一。

These long-simmering frustrations have spilled into the open in recent days, with thousands of people from around the country protesting on the streets of New Delhi, the capital.

这些长期积压的不满情绪近日终于爆发，来自全国各地，数以千计的人在首都新德里街头抗议。

The demonstrations were triggered by the canceling of medical school entrance exams after a question paper leaked, but they are about something much deeper: holding the government to account.

游行示威的导火索是医学院入学考试因试卷泄露而被取消，但背后是更为深刻的原因：要求政府承担责任。

Ignoring their demands brings political risk for Mr. Modi, because India’s largest single demographic is under 25 years of age — a voting bloc too big to ignore.

忽视他们的诉求会给莫迪带来政治风险，因为印度最大的单一人口群体是25岁以下人群——这是一个大到不容忽视的票仓。

But the protests aren’t like the Gen Z uprisings that shook India’s neighbors, Bangladesh and Nepal, where joblessness was also a common underlying cause. The two smaller countries underwent uprisings that quickly spiraled into bloodshed and violence, but toppled governments and installed new leaders; Indian protesters have been deliberate and clear about taking a peaceful approach. Also, in a country as large and diverse as India, with multiple states, political parties and agendas, overarching issues rarely unify enough people to bring that kind of threat.

但这些抗议活动不同于震撼了印度邻国孟加拉国和尼泊尔的Z世代起义，在那些国家，失业也是共同的根本原因。这两个较小的国家经历了迅速演变成流血和暴力的起义，但最终推翻了政府并任命了新领导人；印度的抗议者则明确且坚定地采取了和平方式。此外，印度是一个幅员辽阔的多元化国家，拥有多个邦、政党和政治议程，全局性的议题很少能团结足够多的人，从而构成孟加拉国和尼泊尔那种程度的威胁。

Thousands of protesters remained camped out in Delhi on Wednesday with a list of demands for the government, which has made no concessions so far. Here’s what to know.

周三，数以千计的抗议者继续驻扎在德里，并向政府提出了一系列诉求，但政府迄今尚未做出任何让步。以下是需要了解的情况。

What is causing the frustration?

是什么导致了这种不满？

Students navigate a pressure-cooker education system that many say often deters rather than supports them. They spend years studying for competitive exams, seeking upward mobility and financial security. But increasingly, those with higher education degrees are finding there are far fewer suitable jobs. More than 14,400 students took their own lives in 2024, according to India’s National Crime Records Bureau. The bureau said that student suicides are increasing faster than those of the overall population.

学生们身处一个高压的教育体系中，许多人说这种体系往往是在阻碍而不是在支持他们。他们花费数年时间准备竞争激烈的考试，以期实现社会阶层上升和经济保障。但越来越多拥有高等学位的年轻人发现，合适的职位远没有那么多。根据印度国家犯罪记录局的数据，2024年有超过14400名学生自杀。该局表示，学生自杀率的增长速度超过了总人口的自杀率增长速度。

That frustration erupted in early May, after more than 2.2 million aspiring doctors and dentists sat for an entrance exam that is the only way to get into undergraduate medical school in India. It later turned out that the questions for some exams matched closely with so-called “guess” papers — sample exam questions — that had circulated online before the exam. The government testing agency scrapped the exam and ordered everyone to take the test again.

这种挫败感在5月初爆发，当时有超过220万名有志成为医生和牙医的考生参加了进入印度本科医学院唯一途径的入学考试。后来人们发现，部分考试的题目与考前在网上流传的所谓“押题卷子”——即模拟试题——高度吻合。政府考试机构取消了这次考试，并要求所有考生重新考试。

5月初，印度巴特那的马加德女子学院，学生们正在查看考试座位表。

It wasn’t the first time. India’s National Testing Agency, set up under the Modi government to centralize the process for many entrance exams, has been criticized for its inefficiency, and a failure to prevent leaks or ensure exams are fair for all.

这种事已经不是第一次发生。印度国家考试局是莫迪政府为集中管理多项入学考试而设立的机构，一直因效率低下、不能防止泄题以及不能确保所有人都能接受公平考试而受到批评。

Getting into a school itself is tough, with too many students vying for too few seats. The pattern repeats itself when students enter the job market, with millions of people applying for thousands of government jobs. Nearly 40 percent of graduates between the ages of 15 and 25 are unemployed, according to a 2026 study on India’s work force.

进入学校本身就很困难，因为竞争者太多，而名额却太少。当学生进入就业市场时，这种情况再次重演，数以百万计的申请者要申请数以千计的政府职位。根据一份关于2026年印度劳动力的研究，在15至25岁的毕业生中，近40%的人处于失业状态。

Stories of college graduates working as full-time delivery drivers have become commonplace.

大学毕业生全职送外卖的故事已是屡见不鲜。

Nidhi Sah, a designer and artist who flew in from the city of Ahmedabad to Delhi to join Monday’s protest, said she considered this underemployment a bigger problem than unemployment. “The cost of quality education in India is high, so a well-paying job is a justified expectation,” she said. So when people work longer hours for lower salaries, or take jobs below their qualifications, she added, “the frustration builds up.”

尼迪·萨是一名设计师兼艺术家，她从艾哈迈达巴德市飞往德里参加周一的抗议活动。她说，她认为这种就业不足问题比失业更为严重。“在印度，获得优质教育的成本很高，所以期望一份高薪工作是合理的，”她说。因此，当人们工作时间更长但工资更低，或者从事低于自身资质的工作时，她补充说，“挫败感就会不断累积。”

How has the government responded to the protests?

政府对抗议活动如何回应？

Mr. Modi has so far refrained from speaking publicly about them. Nor has he addressed the demands of the prime organizer, the Cockroach Janta Party, a satirical movement inspired by a disparaging remark by a judge comparing India’s youth to “cockroaches,” which has since turned into a political force.

莫迪迄今为止一直避免公开谈论这些抗议活动。他也没有回应主要组织者“蟑螂人民党”的诉求——该党是一个讽刺性运动，其灵感来自于一位法官将印度青年贬称为“蟑螂”的言论，此后该运动转变成了一股政治力量。

On Tuesday, a senior government minister said Mr. Modi had addressed students’ concerns about the exam questions leak during an internal meeting, saying that those involved will be brought to account. Mr. Modi also said the safety and security of India’s youth was a priority, according to the minister.

周二，一位高级政府部长表示，莫迪在一次内部会议上回应了学生们对考题泄露的担忧，称将追究相关人员的责任。据该部长称，莫迪还表示，印度青年的安全和保障是首要任务。

Even that subtle acknowledgment was rare for Mr. Modi, a strongman leader, and is a sign of the delicate dance he has to perform between placating students and ensuring that his political party doesn’t look weak.

对于强人领导者莫迪来说，即使这种含蓄的承认也属罕见，这表明他必须在安抚学生和确保其政党不显软弱之间进行微妙的平衡。

The C.J.P. has demanded the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan, the education minister, whom they hold directly accountable for the recent leak. But Mr. Pradhan is a key operative for the B.J.P., credited with helping the party come to power in some recent state elections.

蟑螂人民党要求教育部长达曼德拉·普拉丹辞职，他们认为他应对近期的泄题事件负直接责任。但普拉丹是印度人民党的关键人物，曾帮助该党在近期的一些邦选举中掌权。

5月，印度教育部长达曼德拉·普拉丹（中）在新闻发布会上发表讲话，就医学院入学考试试题泄露引发的公众愤怒作出回应。

As the protests persist, Mr. Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has begun blaming the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, its longtime rival, for exploiting the students’ concerns after it began its own related protests.

随着抗议活动的持续，莫迪领导的印度人民党已开始指责其长期竞争对手、主要反对党印度国民大会党利用学生的诉求，此前国大党也发起了类似的抗议活动。

How much momentum is there for the protesters?

抗议者的动力有多大？

Protests in Delhi and elsewhere have been going on for more than a month, ever since Abhijeet Dipke, the 30-year-old founder of the C.J.P. and a graduate of Boston University, turned his joke into a serious movement. Sonam Wangchuk, a prominent education activist, joined the protest and is on the 25th day of a hunger strike. He was forcibly moved by the authorities to a private hospital and is on an intravenous drip as his health deteriorates. But the C.J.P.’s call to march to Parliament on its first day in session on July 20 gave the movement enormous momentum.

自从蟑螂人民党30岁的创始人、波士顿大学毕业生阿比吉特·迪普克把他的玩笑变成一场严肃的运动以来，德里和其他地方的抗议活动已经持续了一个多月。著名教育活动家索南·旺楚克加入了抗议活动，目前绝食抗议已进入第25天。随着健康状况恶化，他被当局强行转移至一家私立医院，目前正在接受静脉输液治疗。但蟑螂人民党呼吁在7月20日议会开会首日向议会进军，这给该运动带来了巨大的动力。

Shabana Azmi, a well-known actress, and Arundhati Roy, a Booker Prize-winning author and activist, have expressed their solidarity.

知名女演员莎芭娜·阿兹米和布克奖得主、作家兼活动人士阿兰达蒂·罗伊表达了声援。

The protests have also provided opposition parties an opportunity to attack the B.J.P. On Tuesday, Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the Congress party, and also the leader of the opposition in the lower house of Parliament, marched toward the prime minister’s residence with his own list of demands to support the students’ cause. He and his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, also a Congress leader, and other party members were detained but later released.

抗议活动也为反对党提供了攻击印度人民党的机会。周二，国大党领导人、议会下院反对党领袖拉胡尔·甘地带着他自己的一系列诉求清单向总理官邸进发，以支持学生的事业。他与同样是国大党领导人的姊妹普里扬卡·甘地·瓦德拉及其他党员被拘留，但随后获释。

“The government has lost the first round,” said Ashutosh Varshney, a professor at Brown University who studies Indian politics. The attention around Mr. Gandhi’s detention has given the opposition an unexpected lift, but its will to continue and the length of the protests are likely to determine whether Mr. Modi can “overcome this moment,” Mr. Varshney said.

“政府在第一回合里输了，”研究印度政治的布朗大学教授阿舒托什·瓦什尼说。瓦什尼表示，围绕甘地被拘留一事引发的关注给反对派带来了意想不到的助力，但反对派是否坚持抗议以及抗议持续的时间长短可能将会决定莫迪能否“挺过这一关”。

What happens next?

接下来会发生什么？

Mr. Dipke and other C.J.P. leaders said they would continue to protest until their demands are met. But they said they would not lead more marches to prevent further injuries to protesters from police crackdowns.

迪普克和其他蟑螂人民党领导人表示，他们将继续抗议，直到诉求得到满足。但他们表示，为了避免抗议者在警方镇压中遭受更多伤害，将不再组织游行。

On Wednesday, the protest site in central Delhi was surrounded by security forces and partly barricaded, but the protests stayed largely peaceful. In some places, dozens of delivery drivers waited nearby on their bikes, bearing food that people had sent to the protesters. Some said there was no specific delivery address provided other than “Jantar Mantar,” the name of the 18th century observatory next to which the government has built a dedicated protest space.

周三，位于新德里中部的抗议地点被安全部队包围，部分区域设置了路障，但抗议活动基本保持和平。在一些地方，数十名外卖骑手骑着车在附近等候，运送民众送给抗议者的食物。一些人说，除了“简塔·曼塔”外，他们没有得到具体的送货地址——这是一座18世纪天文台的名字，政府在它的旁边建了一个专门的抗议区。

周三，新德里“蟑螂人民党”抗议现场附近路障处的外卖骑手。

Anurag Kumar, who works for Swiggy, a delivery platform, said he was handing over orders to people outside the site because the police wouldn’t allow him to go any further. Mr. Kumar said he had delivered 11 orders since 7:30 a.m. Other workers said deliveries included sanitary pads, ointments and other products that protesters might need to sustain the protest.

为配送平台Swiggy工作的阿努拉格·库马尔说，由于警方不允许他继续向前，他只能将订单交给现场之外的人。库马尔说，从早上7点30分起，他已经送了11个订单。其他工作人员表示，配送的物品包括卫生巾、药膏以及抗议者维持抗议可能需要的其他物品。

Mr. Dipke put out a video urging Mr. Wangchuk to end his fast. But the veteran activist said he had no plans to end protests until their demands are met.

迪普克发布了一段视频，敦促旺楚克结束绝食。但这位资深活动家表示，在他们的诉求得到满足之前，他没有结束抗议的计划。

President Trump went to war with Iran in part to force compliance with two longstanding American demands: Tehran must stop enriching nuclear fuel for at least two decades, and it must allow international inspectors to go anywhere and see anything to verify the country is not producing a bomb.

特朗普总统对伊朗开战，部分原因是为了迫使伊朗遵守美国长期提出的两项要求：德黑兰必须至少停止铀浓缩活动20年，并且必须允许国际核查人员前往任何地点、检查任何内容，以确认它没有在制造核武器。

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump took the reverse approach to Saudi Arabia, its close ally in the region. To seal a deal for Westinghouse and other American companies to seize a big piece of the business in building two nuclear reactors on Saudi territory — and more to come — it opened the door to allowing the kingdom to begin enriching its own nuclear fuel after two years.

周三，特朗普对美国在该地区的亲密盟友沙特阿拉伯采取了截然相反的做法。为了促成西屋电气及其他美国公司拿下在沙特境内建造两座核反应堆的重大合同——且后续还有更多项目——美国为沙特打开了大门，允许其在两年后开始自行浓缩核燃料。

And it gave in to the kingdom’s demand that it not have to abide by an inspection agreement that applies to more than 140 other countries. Those rules, the Saudis said, are just too intrusive.

美国还同意了沙特提出的一项要求：即不必遵守一项适用于全球140多个国家的核查协议。沙特方面表示，这些规则太过侵入性。

Now Mr. Trump will have to make the case to Congress, and to allies throughout the Middle East, that in loosening the nuclear standards for one close ally, he is not ushering in a new age of proliferation, especially in a region of the world already on fire. If the daily missile exchanges with Iran finally give way to resumed negotiations, there is no question Iran will seize on the concessions made to Riyadh and insist on the same.

如今，特朗普将不得不向国会以及整个中东地区的盟友解释：为一个亲密盟友放宽核标准并不会开启一个新的核扩散时代，尤其是在这个本已战火不断的地区。如果与伊朗的每日导弹交火最终让位于新一轮谈判，伊朗必然会援引给予利雅得的种种让步，要求获得同等待遇。

Already on Wednesday, administration officials were arguing that there was nothing to worry about, and that the United States will be so engaged in Saudi Arabia’s nuclear future that there is no way the kingdom could divert its nuclear fuel and know-how to a secret bomb program.

就在周三，政府官员已开始声称没有什么好担心的，美国将深度介入沙特未来的核计划，因此沙特根本不可能将核燃料和相关技术转用于秘密的核武器计划。

They may prove right. But nuclear history is littered with examples of countries that pledged to obey the rules, and surreptitiously raced for a bomb.

他们或许是对的。但纵观核历史，不乏信誓旦旦遵守规则、暗中加速推进制造核武器的前车之鉴。

Iran’s first research reactor was provided by the United States to the shah of Iran, complete with weapons-grade uranium — technology that fell into the hands of the mullahs who took over the country in 1979. India’s first nuclear test used plutonium from a heavy-water reactor that had been a gift from the Canadian government in the 1950s. Pakistan stole its centrifuge designs from a European firm that hired A.Q. Khan, now celebrated as the father of the Pakistani bomb. Taiwan and South Korea, stalwart American allies, had secret bomb programs of their own until American intelligence agencies discovered them and quashed the efforts.

伊朗的第一座研究性核反应堆由美国提供给伊朗国王，并附带武器级浓缩铀——这项技术后来落入了1979年接管伊朗的神职人员之手。印度进行第一次核试验时使用的钚来自加拿大政府在1950年代赠予的一座重水反应堆。巴基斯坦则是从一家欧洲公司盗取了离心机设计图纸——阿卜杜勒·卡迪尔·汗受雇于该公司，如今他被誉为“巴基斯坦核弹之父”。台湾和韩国这两个美国坚定盟友也曾拥有各自的秘密核武器计划，直至被美国情报机构发现后才被迫叫停。

Mr. Trump has many reasons to solidify the American relationship with Saudi Arabia these days. He can argue that if the United States does not provide the country with its best reactors and nuclear technology, Russia or China will. At a time when tensions have flared with the Saudis — for a while Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prohibited the United States from launching attacks on Iran from U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia — anything that draws the Saudis deeper into the American technology stack makes sense to the White House.

特朗普如今有许多理由巩固与沙特的关系。他可以辩称，如果美国不向沙特提供最先进的反应堆和核技术，俄罗斯或中国就会这么做。在美沙关系出现裂痕之际——王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾一度禁止美国从驻沙特基地对伊朗发动袭击，任何能将沙特更深地拉入美国技术体系的做法对白宫来说都是有意义的。

“Rest assured, these agreements uphold the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation,” Chris Wright, the secretary of energy, said in a statement on Wednesday announcing the deal, “while relying on the world’s best nuclear technology and scientists, designed right here in the United States.”

“请放心，这些协议坚持了核安全和不扩散的最高标准，”能源部长克里斯·赖特在周三宣布该协议的声明中表示，“同时依托于世界最优秀的核技术和科学家，而这些技术都是在美国设计的。”

Mr. Wright signed the deal with the Saudi minister of energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the White House did not immediately release the text — or the two secret letters accompanying it. All of those will now go to Capitol Hill for congressional review. But as a practical matter, Congress would have to assemble a veto-proof majority to override Mr. Trump’s initiative.

赖特与沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼亲王共同签署了协议，但白宫并未立即公布协议文本，也未公开随附的两封密函。所有这些文件都将提交国会审议。但从现实角度而言，国会必须凑够足以推翻总统决定的票数，才能否决特朗普的这项计划。

It is a process that has been used many times under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, a key element of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” program. The idea was to spread nuclear energy, with safeguards to assure that fuel is not diverted to bomb projects.

这是根据1954年《原子能法》多次使用过的程序，也是德怀特·艾森豪威尔“原子用于和平”计划的重要组成部分。其初衷是在核查机制的保障下推广核能，以确保核燃料不会被转作武器项目之用。

But Saudi Arabia poses a particular kind of problem, hard to imagine in Eisenhower’s time. It is a country that is racing to shed its petroleum-based past and eager to embrace nuclear energy to build data centers and power a future driven by artificial intelligence, yet fearful of what might happen if the Iranians get the bomb.

然而，沙特阿拉伯带来了一种在艾森豪威尔时代难以想象的特殊难题。这个国家正全力摆脱依赖石油的发展模式，希望借助核能建设数据中心，为一个由人工智能驱动的未来提供能源；与此同时，它又担心，一旦伊朗拥有了核武器，将会带来怎样的后果。

Saudi officials have made no secret of their determination to keep pace with Tehran’s apparent efforts to build a nuclear weapon, and to match them if they do. In 2018, Prince Mohammed pledged that his kingdom would try to develop or acquire nuclear weapons if Iran continued its work toward a bomb — despite the fact that Saudi Arabia signed on to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1988, after delaying for 18 years. Other Saudi officials have issued similar warnings in recent years, or talked about the need for Saudi Arabia to become a “threshold” nuclear state, a few screwdriver turns away from building its own weapon.

沙特官员毫不掩饰自己的决心：要与德黑兰制造核武器的明显努力保持同步，而且如果伊朗成功造出核弹，沙特也要拥有。2018年，穆罕默德王储曾承诺，如果伊朗继续推进核武器研发，沙特将尝试开发或获取核武器——尽管沙特在拖延18年后于1988年签署了《不扩散核武器条约》。近年来，其他沙特官员也发出过类似警告，或谈到沙特有必要成为核门槛国家——离制造自己的核武器只有几步之遥的国家。

“I find this decision incredibly shortsighted,” said James M. Acton, a nuclear analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It appears to provide a pathway to a country that really might want to proliferate. You cannot exclude the possibility that Saudi Arabia would nationalize this facility and use it make a bomb.”

“我认为这一决定极其短视。”卡内基国际和平基金会核问题分析师詹姆斯·阿克顿表示。“这项协议似乎为一个确实有可能寻求核扩散的国家提供了一条道路。你不能排除这样一种可能性：沙特阿拉伯将这座设施收归国有，并利用它制造核武器。”

It is hardly a new problem. President George W. Bush negotiated a similar deal with the United Arab Emirates, finalized by President Barack Obama in 2009, whose terms were so restrictive that it became known as the gold standard of nuclear agreements. In return for the technology, the U.A.E. agreed to forgo producing nuclear fuel forever, and it signed the “Additional Protocol,” as the International Atomic Energy Agency calls an agreement allowing intrusive inspections. The U.A.E. now has four civilian nuclear reactors, built largely with the help of South Korea, and there is little worry that the country is interested in anything other than electricity production.

这并不是一个新问题。小布什总统曾与阿拉伯联合酋长国谈判达成过一项类似协议，并由奥巴马总统于2009年最终敲定。由于协议条款极其严格，它后来被称为核协议的黄金标准。作为获得核技术的交换条件，阿联酋承诺永远放弃自行生产核燃料，并签署了国际原子能机构所谓的《附加议定书》，允许进行具有高度侵入性的核查。如今，阿联酋已拥有四座民用核反应堆，大部分是在韩国的帮助下建成的，而且几乎没有人担心该国对核能有发电以外的任何企图。

位于阿布扎比加尔比亚地区的巴拉卡核电站，由阿联酋政府供图。阿联酋与美国签署的核能协议被视为此类协议的黄金标准。

When South Korea went down the same path, the United States won a 10-year moratorium on its making its own fuel. But when President Lee Jae Myung came to Washington late last year, he got an agreement from Mr. Trump to lift the restraints. (It appears that the restrictions are still in place, at least for now.)

韩国走上同一道路时，美国成功争取到为期10年的韩国自产核燃料禁令。但当韩国总统李在明去年年底访问华盛顿时，从特朗普那里获得了解除上述限制的承诺。（目前看来，限制似乎仍然有效，至少暂时如此。）

“It was clear Saudi Arabia was going to be different than the Emiratis,” said Robert Einhorn, a nuclear expert at the Brookings Institution who negotiated many of the toughest nuclear agreements of the past few decades as a State Department official. “They felt the inspections were just too intrusive and they weren’t going to renounce enrichment forever.”

“很明显，沙特会与阿联酋不同，”布鲁金斯学会核问题专家罗伯特·艾因霍恩表示。他曾任国务院官员，参与谈判了过去数十年间最为艰难的多项核协议。“他们觉得核查措施太过侵入性，而且也不准备永久放弃铀浓缩能力。”

While the Saudis agreed to a two-year study of whether it was economically feasible to produce their own nuclear fuel, they seem determined to pursue an enrichment capability, even if they had to wait awhile.

虽然沙特同意用两年时间研究自行生产核燃料是否具有经济可行性，但他们显然决心最终建立自己的铀浓缩能力，哪怕需要等待一段时间。

Once the terms of the Saudi deal are made public, other nations may well insist on the same treatment. The U.A.E. has a proviso in its accord that allows it to demand “consultations” with the United States if a neighboring country gets a better deal.

一旦沙特协议条款公开，其他国家很可能会要求获得同等待遇。阿联酋的协议中有一项条款，允许其在邻国获得了更好的待遇时有权要求与美国进行“磋商”。

Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said the Saudi accord puts more pressure on the Trump administration to decisively eliminate Iran’s ability to build an atomic bomb.

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的核问题项目主任希瑟·威廉姆斯表示，沙特协议给特朗普政府带来更大压力，要求其果断消除伊朗制造原子弹的能力。

“Preventing a Saudi nuclear weapon now means getting a concrete and hard-hitting resolution on things like inspections, what to do with the stockpile and the status of nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain,” she said, referring to a complex of deep tunnels in Iran thought to harbor atomic bomb-making gear. Failure to do so, Dr. Williams added, would raise the risk of a proliferation cascade in which many nations might race for the ability to make a bomb.

她说：“如今要阻止沙特拥有核武器就意味着，必须在核查措施、如何处理核材料库存，以及包括镐山在内的核设施状态等问题上达成一个具体而强硬的解决方案。”她所说的镐山指的是伊朗境内一处由深层隧道组成的设施群，外界认为那里可能藏有制造核武器的设备。威廉姆斯博士补充说，如果无法做到这一点，将加剧出现核扩散连锁反应的风险，即许多国家可能会竞相获得制造核武器的能力。

The Saudi push for a nuclear accord with Washington, she added, echoes “a hedging strategy we are seeing with other allies and partners. Their neighborhoods are increasingly dangerous,” in many cases because their old guarantor of security, the United States, “isn’t as reliable as it once was.” The result is that they seek alternative deals and arrangements to bolster their security.

她还表示，沙特谋求与华盛顿签署核协议的努力折射出“我们正从其他盟友和伙伴身上看到的一种对冲策略”。它们所处的地区日益危险，在很大程度上是因为美国这个昔日的安全保障者“已不再像过去那样可靠”。结果是，它们寻求替代协议和安排来加强自身安全。

Dr. Williams said the Saudi accord can be seen as a victory for the United States “because it maintains U.S. partnerships in the region when China is competing for them.” The problem, she added, is that its terms are weak. “We got the partnership, but not the guardrails.”

威廉姆斯表示，沙特协议可以被视为美国的胜利，“因为在中国也正在争夺这些地区伙伴关系的时候，它维持了美国在该地区的合作关系。”但她补充说，问题在于协议条款太过宽松。“我们拿到了伙伴关系，却没有护栏。”

But to those who worry that the world is on the cusp of a new nuclear breakout — what John F. Kennedy warned about just before his assassination — the Saudi deal is a step toward that danger. Kennedy was wrong when he predicted there would be more than two dozen nuclear-armed nations by the 1970s. Today, there are only nine, but it may turn out he only got the timing wrong.

然而，对于那些担心世界正处于新一轮核扩散爆发边缘的人来说——这正是约翰·肯尼迪在遇刺前不久所警告的危险——沙特协议正是迈向这一危险的一步。肯尼迪曾预测，到20世纪70年代，拥有核武器的国家数量将超过二十多个，但他的预测并没有实现。如今，全世界只有九个国家拥有核武器。不过，事实可能证明，他只是在时间节点上的判断有误。

“There’s no happy ending if Saudi Arabia gets within several weeks or months of making a bomb,” said Henry D. Sokolski, a nuclear policy official in the Defense Department from 1989 to 1993 who now heads the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based nonprofit organization.

"如果沙特在距离制造核弹只有数周或数月之遥的程度上止步，不会有什么好结果的，"亨利·索科尔斯基说，他曾于1989年至1993年在国防部担任核政策官员，现任华盛顿非营利组织防核扩散政策教育中心主任。

“Everyone worries about a proliferation chain reaction. Granting the Saudis the right to make nuclear fuel after what Iran has done is like trying to put out a fire with kerosene. It’s a sad situation. It should never have gone this far.”

“所有人都担心核扩散连锁反应。在伊朗发生这些事情之后，给予沙特制造核燃料的权利就像试图用煤油去灭火。这是一个令人悲哀的局面。事情本不该走到这一步。”他补充说。

Pakistan’s business owners are desperate for peace.

巴基斯坦的企业主们极度渴望和平。

Ghulam Mustafa, a mango exporter, rushed containers of the plump fruit to the Pakistan-Iran border as soon as the United States and Iran signed a cease-fire agreement, brokered by Pakistan, last month.

上个月，在美国和伊朗签署由巴基斯坦斡旋达成的停火协议后，芒果出口商古拉姆·穆斯塔法立即将装满饱满芒果的集装箱运往巴基斯坦与伊朗边境。

But the truce has collapsed, the trucks have turned back, and Mr. Mustafa’s mangoes are rotting.

但休战协议已经破裂，卡车掉头折返，穆斯塔法的芒果正在腐烂。

“We’re sending our products, and we don’t know whether they’ll cross or get stopped,” Mr. Mustafa said.

“我们把产品运过去，却不知道它们是能过境还是会被拦下，”穆斯塔法说。

I spoke to him on a recent morning in his office as he watched videos from his driver showing boxes full of spoiled fruit that never reached their Iranian buyers.

前不久的一个早晨，我在他的办公室采访了他，当时他正在看司机发来的视频，视频显示一箱箱装满腐烂水果的箱子，它们始终未能送达伊朗买家手中。

For him and other business owners in Karachi — Pakistan’s largest city and its commercial hub — the economic stakes of an end to the war in Iran are high. Peace would mean not just lower fuel prices but also a chance to finally take advantage of the huge trading partner right across the 565-mile border.

对于他以及巴基斯坦最大城市兼商业中心卡拉奇的其他企业主来说，结束伊朗战争的经济影响至关重要。和平不仅意味着燃料价格的降低，也意味着终于有机会利用约900公里边境线对面那个巨大的贸易伙伴。

The Pakistani economy is struggling and heavily reliant on foreign lenders like China and Saudi Arabia. A nation of 250 million people, Pakistan has four neighbors but doesn’t formally trade with two of them, India and Afghanistan, because of ongoing tensions. Investments from the third one, China, are down nearly 30 percent this year.

巴基斯坦经济步履维艰，严重依赖中国和沙特阿拉伯等外国贷款方。人口2.5亿的巴基斯坦有四个邻国，但由于持续的紧张局势，它与其中的印度和阿富汗没有正式贸易往来。来自第三个邻国中国的投资今年下降了近30%。

芒果贸易商、批发商和出口商穆斯塔法在卡拉奇的新萨布齐曼迪集市内。

Traders and entrepreneurs had pinned their hopes on better relations with the fourth, Iran.

贸易商和企业家们曾把希望寄托在改善与第四个邻国伊朗的关系上。

“The situation is very urgent for Pakistan,” said Kaiser Bengali, an economist based in Karachi. “We subscribe to loans to pay back old loans. Any relief from any side will be welcome.”

“巴基斯坦的情况非常紧急，”驻卡拉奇的经济学家凯瑟·孟加拉表示。“我们借新贷还旧贷。来自任何方面的任何缓解都是受欢迎的。”

Both governments have pledged to boost trade. This week, Iran’s interior minister, Eskandar Momeni, led a delegation to Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, that included the governor of Iran’s border province, the head of the national oil company and top Iranian officials in transportation, agriculture and urban development.

两国政府都已承诺促进贸易。本周，伊朗内政部长埃斯坎达尔·莫梅尼率领代表团前往巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡，代表团成员包括伊朗边境省份的省长、国家石油公司负责人以及伊朗交通、农业和城市发展部门的高级官员。

But many among Karachi’s powerful and influential industrialists are feeling disillusionment and alarm.

但在卡拉奇，有许多权势显赫、颇具影响力的实业家正感到幻灭和恐慌。

Yasmin Dadabhoy, whose business specializes in construction materials and energy, briefly considered a trip to Iran for construction deals during the cease-fire.

亚斯敏·达达博伊的企业专门从事建筑材料和能源业务，在停火期间，她曾短暂考虑过前往伊朗洽谈建筑交易。

Ms. Dadabhoy said the mood at the time was, “Business will be back, sunshine and rainbows, reconstruction and everything.”

达达博伊说，当时的情绪是，“生意会回来的，阳光灿烂、彩虹满天，重建以及一切工作都会顺利。”

“It ended in a blink of an eye,” she added. “Now there’s bombing everywhere.”

“这一切转瞬即逝，”她还说。“现在到处都在轰炸。”

Like many Pakistanis, Ms. Dadabhoy praised the country’s government and military leadership for their efforts, but she said the United States and Iran should sit down for talks again.

与许多巴基斯坦人一样，达达博伊赞扬了本国政府和军方领导层所作的努力，但她表示，美国和伊朗应该再次坐下来谈判。

“The big boys need to settle things down fast,” she said.

“大佬们得赶紧把事情解决好，”她说。

卡拉奇港，堆放在起重机附近的集装箱。

Spoiled Fruit, Soured Hopes

腐烂的水果，破灭的希望

It’s not only Mr. Mustafa’s mangoes that are stuck at the border. Rice and textiles from Pakistan, and oil and steel from Iran, are moving in a trickle. Traders and business owners say smuggling of oil and essential food products is still going on, but that, too, has become more difficult and expensive because of the war in Iran and attacks by armed groups in Pakistan’s border province of Balochistan.

滞留在边境的不仅仅是穆斯塔法的芒果。来自巴基斯坦的大米和纺织品、来自伊朗的石油和钢铁都只能零星地艰难流通。贸易商和企业主表示，石油和基本食品的走私活动仍在继续，但由于伊朗的战争以及武装组织在巴基斯坦边境俾路支省发动的袭击，走私也变得更加困难、成本更高。

Pakistan’s mangoes, a source of national pride, brought in $110 million in export revenue last year. But the country’s main trade association for fruits and vegetables has slashed this year’s export target by nearly 30 percent because of declining yields and rising freight costs, which have doubled by air and increased almost sixfold by sea.

芒果是巴基斯坦的骄傲，去年出口收入达1.1亿美元。但由于产量下降和运费上涨——空运费用翻了一番，海运费用几乎增长了六倍——该国主要的水果和蔬菜贸易协会已将今年的出口目标下调了近30%。

With fruits rotting at the border with Iran, traders have cut prices by half and sold them at auctions.

随着水果在巴伊边境腐烂，商人们将价格削减了一半，并在拍卖会上出售。

They are getting impatient, too. Pakistan’s top leaders, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the army chief, Field Marshal Asim Syed Munir, earned some praise domestically for hosting the first meeting in decades between top U.S. and Iranian officials in Islamabad in April, and later for helping broker a cease-fire between the two countries.

他们也变得越来越不耐烦了。由于4月在伊斯兰堡主持了几十年来美伊高级官员之间的首次会晤，并协助斡旋两国达成停火协议，巴基斯坦最高领导人、总理夏巴兹·谢里夫和陆军参谋长阿西姆·赛义德·穆尼尔元帅在国内赢得了一些赞誉。

But that good will may have already been spent.

但这些好感可能已经被消耗殆尽。

“The leaders are showing off,” said Afzal Khan, a wholesale trader selling mangoes in Karachi. He added that the moniker “Showbaz” was circulating widely — a play on Mr. Sharif’s first name, reflecting the view that his role was more performative than substantive.

“这些领导人只是在作秀，”在卡拉奇销售芒果的批发商阿夫扎尔·汗说。他还说，“作秀巴兹”这个绰号正在广泛流传——这是对谢里夫的名字“夏巴兹”的戏仿，反映出人们认为他的角色更多是作秀性质，没有什么实际内容。

卡拉奇的芒果商人阿夫扎尔·汗表示，巴基斯坦领导人通过外交手段试图结束伊朗战争的举动不过是在“作秀”。

“The solution is in the hands of Mr. Trump,” said Aitbaar Ali Syed, a fruit and vegetable exporter based in Karachi. “If he wants, he can solve all these problems.”

“解决方案掌握在特朗普手中，”总部位于卡拉奇的水果和蔬菜出口商艾特巴尔·阿里·赛义德说。“只要他愿意，就可以解决所有这些问题。”

Spooked by Sanctions

制裁引起的恐慌

Pakistani business owners dealing with Iran say U.S. sanctions have hampered their quest to expand trade.

与伊朗有业务往来的巴基斯坦企业主表示，美国的制裁阻碍了他们扩大贸易的努力。

Decades ago, Shahid Hamid Jafri’s father traded textiles for rugs from Iran. These days, Mr. Jafri deals mainly in Pakistan’s critical minerals and exports only a trickle of Pakistani rice to Iran. (Essential items like food are not subject to sanctions.) With full access, he said the Iranian market would have “huge, huge potential.”

几十年前，沙希德·哈米德·贾弗里的父亲用纺织品交换伊朗的地毯。如今，贾弗里主要经营巴基斯坦的关键矿产，只向伊朗出口极少量的巴基斯坦大米。（食品等必需品不受制裁。）他表示，如果能获得全面准入，伊朗市场将拥有“巨大、巨大的潜力”。

Officially, Pakistan and Iran trade is about $3 billion — much less than the $5.4 billion in goods that Pakistan exported to the United States last year.

官方数据显示，巴基斯坦与伊朗的贸易额约为30亿美元，远低于巴基斯坦去年对美国的54亿美元出口额。

But Muhammad Rehan Hanif, the president of Karachi’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said that when Iranian business owners visit the chamber, the two sides struggle to discuss anything concrete because of sanctions.

但卡拉奇工商会主席穆罕默德·雷汉·哈尼夫表示，当伊朗企业主到访商会时，由于制裁的缘故，双方难以就实质性内容展开讨论。

“When banks read the word ‘Iran,’ they get spooked,” said Asfandyar Khan Mandokhail, who’s with a major Pakistani trade organization.

“银行一看到‘伊朗’这个名字就害怕，”巴基斯坦一家主要贸易组织的阿斯凡迪亚尔·汗·曼多哈伊尔表示。

If not for sanctions, traders say, Pakistan could increase its supply of maize, rice, textiles, pharmaceutical products and surgical equipment to Iran. Iran could supply fuel and gas much more cheaply to Pakistan than Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf.

贸易商们说，如果不是因为制裁，巴基斯坦本可以增加对伊朗的玉米、大米、纺织品、药品和手术设备的供应。而相比沙特阿拉伯和海湾地区的其他国家，伊朗能以便宜得多的价格向巴基斯坦供应燃料和天然气。

Instead, for most trade, Pakistan and Iran must rely on barter, third-party routes, like ports in the United Arab Emirates, and smuggling over land or by sea, which is widespread. There is no official data on the volume of informal trade, but it is estimated to represent billions of dollars.

然而，巴基斯坦和伊朗的大部分贸易只能依赖易货贸易、通过阿联酋港口等第三方渠道，以及广泛存在的陆路或海上走私。非正式贸易的规模没有官方数据，但估计高达数十亿美元。

“When you blend Iranian oil with a cargo coming from elsewhere, you cannot prove it’s Iranian,” said Mahmood Moulvi, the chairman of a major shipping company that trades rice and cooking oil with Iran, among other products. Describing how Iranian products reach Pakistan, Mr. Moulvi said it is nearly impossible for business owners to do so legally, so they use smugglers or route products through a third country.

“当你把伊朗石油与来自其他地方的货物混合在一起时，你就无法证明它是伊朗的了，”马哈茂德·穆尔维表示。他是一家大型航运公司董事长，该公司与伊朗开展大米、食用油等产品的贸易。在谈到伊朗产品如何进入巴基斯坦时，穆尔维表示，企业主几乎不可能合法地开展业务，因此他们要么通过走私，要么通过第三国转运。

Watching and Waiting

观望与等待

Formalizing trade by lifting sanctions, business owners say, would eliminate the expense and risk involved in paying smugglers, and they would be able to sell a wider variety of Iranian consumer products, from watermelon to whipped cream or sweets.

企业主表示，如果能解除制裁、让贸易正规化，他们就不用再花钱找走私者，也不用担惊受怕了，而且他们将能够销售更广泛的伊朗消费品，从西瓜到鲜奶油或糖果。

Today, even the trade in smuggled goods appears to be drying up.

如今，即便是走私贸易似乎也在萎缩。

One morning last week, I wandered the alleys of a market in Karachi that once sold a wide variety of Iranian sweets. Only a handful were available: Iranian-made copies of Snickers bars, called Stunner, and Oreo cookies, called Bisoreno.

上周的一个上午，我在卡拉奇的一个市场里转悠，这里曾经出售各种伊朗糖果。如今只剩零星几种：伊朗仿制的士力架巧克力棒（名为Stunner），以及仿制的奥利奥饼干（名为Bisoreno）。

在卡拉奇熙熙攘攘的博尔顿市场内，一名商贩正在出售进口的伊朗巧克力和饼干。

Imports of smuggled oil have been cut by half as well, said Tariq Hasan, the vice chairman of Pakistan’s main petroleum lobbying group.

巴基斯坦主要石油游说团体的副主席塔里克·哈桑表示，走私石油的进口量也减少了一半。

A gas pipeline project to link the two countries has also stalled because of U.S. sanctions; Iran has completed construction, but Pakistan hasn’t started its portion.

一条连接两国的天然气管道项目也因美国制裁而停滞；伊朗已完成建设，但巴基斯坦尚未启动本国的部分。

Along with the chance to legalize and increase imports of Iranian oil, analysts and business owners say the big prize for Pakistan would be a chance to be involved in the postwar reconstruction of Iran.

分析人士和企业主表示，除了有机会使伊朗石油进口合法化并增加进口量之外，对巴基斯坦来说更大的红利是参与伊朗战后重建的机会。

Ms. Dadabhoy, the construction executive, noted that Pakistan had the workers and the construction materials Iran would need.

建筑公司高管达达博伊指出，巴基斯坦拥有伊朗所需的劳动力和建筑材料。

“We are playing watch and wait, because with uncertainty entrepreneurs don’t venture out,” she said.

“我们正在观望等待，因为在充满不确定性的情况下，企业家不敢贸然行动，”她说。

President Trump’s prime-time speech last Thursday was intended to shore up his tenacious lies that the 2020 election was stolen from him and leaned heavily on recycled claims that the Chinese government tried to tip the scales against him.

特朗普总统上周四在黄金时段的演讲意在为他“2020年大选被窃取”的顽固谎言背书，并大量重复了关于中国政府试图令选情对他不利的陈词滥调。

But a trove of intelligence documents that Mr. Trump declassified in hopes that they would bolster his assertions arguably made a stronger case that a different country — Russia — had meddled in the race.

然而，特朗普为支持自己的主张而解密的大量情报文件反而提供了更有力的证据，证明是另一个国家——俄罗斯——干预了这场选举。

Mr. Trump, nonetheless, barely mentioned Russia during his 25-minute address, in keeping with his longstanding aversion to admitting what criminal and congressional investigators have said for years: Senior Russian officials, including Vladimir V. Putin, the country’s president, worked to undermine Mr. Trump’s opponents in both his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

尽管如此，特朗普在他25分钟的演讲中几乎没有提及俄罗斯，这符合他长期以来的抵触态度——他不愿承认刑事和国会调查人员多年来的结论：包括俄罗斯总统普京在内的俄罗斯高级官员在2016年和2020年两次大选中都致力于削弱特朗普的对手。

“He forgets or just omits that the biggest country that tries to influence on every election is Russia,” Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on Sunday during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “We’ve documented that time and again.”

“他忘记了，或者干脆忽略了，试图影响每一次选举的最大国家是俄罗斯，”参议院情报委员会最高民主党人、参议员马克·华纳周日在接受CBS的《面向全国》节目采访时说。“我们已经一次又一次地记录了这一点。”

The prominence of Russia in the newly declassified documents — and Mr. Trump’s relative silence about the country during his address — was only the latest reminder of how the president has often sought to twist U.S. intelligence to support his falsehoods about elections he has run in. Those efforts have become more worrisome now that Mr. Trump has installed inexperienced loyalists and given them oversight of U.S. intelligence agencies. Bill Pulte, a housing official, is serving as the acting director of national intelligence until Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, is confirmed.

俄罗斯在最新解密文件中占据突出地位，而特朗普在演讲中对俄罗斯保持了相对的沉默，这只能再一次让人们想起，这位总统经常试图扭曲美国情报，以支持他对自己参与的选举所编造的谎言。如今，随着特朗普任命了缺乏经验的亲信，并赋予他们监管美国情报机构的权力，这些做法变得更加令人担忧。住房官员比尔·普尔特正担任代理国家情报总监，直至曼哈顿联邦检察官杰伊·克莱顿的任命获得确认。

The documents that Mr. Trump declassified last week were not the first to highlight efforts by the Russians to influence American elections. In many cases, the new files reflect information that was made public five or six years ago, either in previous disclosures by U.S. intelligence agencies or public statements by senior officials in the first Trump administration.

特朗普上周解密的文件并不是俄罗斯试图影响美国大选的企图首次被揭露。在许多情况下，这些新文件反映的是五六年前就已经公开的信息，这些信息要么来自美国情报机构以前的披露，要么来自特朗普首届政府高级官员的公开声明。

Most of the allegations about Russian election meddling in the 2020 election were contained in an analysis by the National Intelligence Council dated Aug. 19 that year, less than three months before Mr. Trump lost to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in a defeat that even now he refuses to acknowledge.

关于俄罗斯干预2020年大选的大部分指控都包含在国家情报委员会当年8月19日的一份分析报告中。当时距离特朗普输给拜登不到三个月，直至今日他仍拒绝承认这一败选事实。

The analysis maintained that Mr. Putin and senior officials in his government oversaw efforts to damage Mr. Biden’s campaign.

该分析坚称，普京及其政府中的高级官员负责监督了旨在破坏拜登竞选活动的行动。

Moreover, it said, the Russians conspired with officials and “other prominent persons” in the United States to “orchestrate a high-profile corruption scandal” implicating Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party at the peak of the campaign. Republicans have accused Mr. Biden of being involved, while vice president, in corrupt business dealings with his son Hunter and the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma.

此外，报告称，俄罗斯人与美国官员及“其他知名人士”密谋，在竞选高峰期“策划了一起备受瞩目的腐败丑闻”，将拜登和民主党牵扯其中。共和党人指责拜登在担任副总统期间与其子亨特以及乌克兰能源公司布里斯马参与了腐败的商业交易。

“Their aim is to defeat the former vice president” — Mr. Biden — “and ensure the president’s victory,” the intelligence council concluded, referring to Mr. Trump.

“他们的目的是击败前副总统”——拜登——“并确保总统获胜，”情报委员会得出结论，此处的总统是指特朗普。

The same assessment also made clear that Iran had taken some clumsier but still fairly aggressive efforts to harm Mr. Trump’s electoral prospects, actions that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, had most likely ordered. But Mr. Trump had little to say on Thursday night about Iranian election meddling, even though the United States is still at war with Iran. He instead highlighted China’s relatively muted actions, which he asserted had been hidden from him and the American people.

该评估报告还明确指出，伊朗曾采取一些较为笨拙但依然相当激进的行动，试图损害特朗普的选举，这些行动极有可能是由最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊下令实施的。然而，尽管美国仍与伊朗处于交战状态，周四晚上，特朗普对伊朗干预大选一事几乎只字未提。相反，他强调了中国相对低调的行动，并声称这些事之前从未能够让他或美国人民知晓。

The claims surrounding Burisma are among the longest-lasting efforts to smear Mr. Biden. They center on accusations that while serving in the White House under President Barack Obama, he used his power to derail a corruption inquiry into the company to protect Hunter Biden, who sat on its board of directors.

围绕布里斯马公司的各项指控是抹黑拜登最持久的努力之一。这些主张的核心是指控他在奥巴马总统任内于白宫任职期间，利用自身权力阻挠了一项针对该公司的腐败调查，以保护当时在该公司董事会任职的亨特·拜登。

At one point, an F.B.I. informant, Alexander Smirnov, claimed that the oligarch owner of Burisma had paid $5 million to both Mr. Biden and his son. But Mr. Smirnov was ultimately charged with lying about the purported bribes and admitted that he had been fed information by Russian intelligence.

联邦调查局线人亚历山大·斯米尔诺夫一度声称，布里斯马公司的寡头所有者曾向拜登及其儿子各支付了500万美元。但斯米尔诺夫最终被控在所谓的贿赂问题上说谎，并承认他所获得的信息是由俄罗斯情报部门提供的。

A U.S. intelligence community analysis from March 2021 found that proxies linked to Russian intelligence had promoted false stories about the Biden family “to U.S. media organizations, U.S. officials and prominent U.S. individuals, including some close to former President Trump and his administration.”

美国情报界2021年3月的一份分析报告发现，与俄罗斯情报部门有关联的代理人曾“向美国媒体机构、美国官员和美国知名人士，包括一些与前总统特朗普及其政府关系密切的人”散布关于拜登家族的虚假报道。

Federal prosecutors also undertook an expansive investigation into whether Ukrainian officials had helped orchestrate a plan to damage Mr. Biden’s 2020 campaign, including by using Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mr. Trump’s onetime personal lawyer, to help spread their misleading claims. Mr. Giuliani was never charged in the inquiry.

联邦检察官还展开了一项广泛的调查，以查明乌克兰官员是否协助策划了一项旨在破坏拜登2020年竞选活动的计划，包括利用特朗普曾经的私人律师鲁道夫·朱利安尼来帮助传播他们的误导性说法。朱利安尼在该项调查中未被起诉。

Russia’s disinformation campaigns, U.S. officials maintain, have included promoting accusations of corruption between the Biden family and Ukraine — as well as a conspiracy theory that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton.

美国官员坚称，俄罗斯的虚假信息宣传包括散布有关拜登家族与乌克兰之间存在腐败的指控，以及一种阴谋论——在2016年特朗普与希拉里·克林顿的竞选中，是乌克兰而非俄罗斯干预了特朗普的竞选活动。

Russia-aligned operatives met with people tied to the Trump administration to further seed these narratives. And that dynamic played a role in Mr. Trump’s first impeachment when he urged the newly elected Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to investigate the Bidens and then later withheld military funding the country needed in its ongoing conflict with Russian-backed separatists.

与俄罗斯关系密切的特工会见了与特朗普政府有联系的人士，进一步散布这些言论。这种动态在针对特朗普的第一次弹劾案中发挥了作用，当时他敦促新当选的乌克兰总统泽连斯基调查拜登一家，随后又扣留了乌克兰在与俄罗斯支持的分离主义者持续冲突中所需要的军事资金。

Even after Mr. Trump left office in 2021, his congressional allies continued examining the allegations about Mr. Biden and Ukraine but eventually came up empty. In 2023, House Republicans acknowledged that they had not uncovered incriminating material about Mr. Biden, despite their frequent insinuations that he and his family had been involved in criminal conduct and corruption.

即使在特朗普于2021年卸任后，他在国会的盟友们仍继续调查有关拜登和乌克兰的指控，但最终一无所获。2023年，众议院共和党人承认，尽管他们频繁暗示拜登及其家人参与了犯罪行为和腐败，但他们从未发现任何能证明拜登有罪的证据。

Senator Angus King, the Maine independent, seemed to scratch his head about why Mr. Trump had given short shrift to Russian interference during his speech in an opinion article he wrote over the weekend.

缅因州独立参议员安格斯·金在周末发表的一篇评论文章中似乎对特朗普在演讲中为何对俄罗斯干预一事轻描淡写感到不解。

“Amazingly,” Mr. King wrote, “Russia was barely mentioned in the speech, even though Russia has consistently been the most aggressive foreign meddler in our elections over the past decade.”

“令人惊讶的是，”金写道。“演讲中几乎没有提到俄罗斯，尽管在过去十年中，俄罗斯一直是我们选举中最具攻击性的外国干预者。”

For a while now, there has been a sense that the tide has turned for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Ukraine is attacking Moscow; it’s even getting praise from President Trump. So why did President Volodymyr Zelensky just fire his top general?

一段时间以来，外界普遍感到乌克兰在这场与俄罗斯的战争中已开始扭转局势。它正在袭击莫斯科；甚至得到了特朗普总统的称赞。那么，为何总统泽连斯基刚刚解除了最高将领的职务？

War can be uniquely challenging for democracies, where citizens expect to have a say and sometimes express their discontent on the streets. Today my colleague Andrew Kramer writes about the upheaval in Kyiv during what should be a moment of optimism. It’s a fight over drones, corruption, generational differences and more.

战争对民主国家而言可能是一项独特的考验——公民期待发声，有时会走上街头表达不满。今天，我的同事安德鲁·克莱默撰文，记述了基辅在这个本应充满乐观情绪的时刻所经历的动荡。这是一场涉及无人机、腐败、代际分歧等诸多议题的斗争。

Why Zelensky ousted his top general

泽连斯基为何撤换最高将领

By Andrew E. Kramer

作者：安德鲁·克莱默

For a time, it looked like Ukraine was going to have a good summer.

有一段时间，乌克兰看起来即将迎来一个美好的夏天。

After a winter of heavy Russian bombardment, the country was finding battlefield success, striking Moscow and hitting Russian ships in the Black and Azov Seas. It was finding diplomatic success, too, receiving billions of euros from the European Union and a promise from Trump that Ukraine could start manufacturing its own interceptor missiles. Ukraine was on a winning streak.

在经历了俄罗斯一个冬天的猛烈轰炸之后，乌克兰在战场上捷报频传，它不仅对莫斯科发起袭击，还在黑海和亚速海击中了俄罗斯舰船。在外交方面，乌克兰同样有所收获——获得了欧盟数十亿欧元援助，并得到特朗普的承诺，允许乌克兰自行生产拦截导弹。乌克兰一时气势如虹。

What snapped it was not a fearsome Russian offensive or another unraveling of relations with Trump. Instead, it was an outbreak of political infighting at home.

打破这一势头的，并非俄罗斯的凶猛攻势或与特朗普关系的再度破裂，而是国内爆发的政治内讧。

The defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, was openly clashing with Oleksandr Syrskyi, the country’s top general. Zelensky fired Fedorov last week, triggering major street protests. He then fired Syrskyi on Tuesday night.

国防部长米哈伊洛·费多罗夫与总司令奥列克桑德尔·瑟尔斯基公开发生冲突。泽连斯基上周解除了费多罗夫的职务，引发大规模街头抗议。随后，他又在周二晚间撤换了瑟尔斯基。

(You can read more about the breaking story of the general’s dismissal here.)

（点击这里阅读更多关于这位总司令遭解职的新闻。）

The infighting has cracked the all-important sense of wartime unity and overshadowed the narrative that Ukraine is riding high in the war. Rather than capitalizing on its momentum, Ukraine is now grappling with military upheaval at a critical juncture — a reminder that being a democracy at war can be messy.

这场内讧撕裂了战时至关重要的团结感，也令乌克兰在战场上节节胜利的叙事相形见绌。乌克兰本可乘胜追击，却在关键时刻深陷军事动荡，这再次提醒人们：民主国家在战争状态下难免乱象丛生。

A generation gap

代际之争

The rift has raised questions about how fully Ukraine, with its vaunted reputation for military innovation, is embracing the high-tech solutions that the popular, youthful Fedorov embodied.

这场内斗也引发了外界对于乌克兰是否真正拥抱高科技战争方式的质疑。乌克兰一直以军事创新闻名，而深受欢迎、年轻有为的费多罗夫正是这种创新理念的代表人物。

During his tenure, Fedorov, 35, clashed with Ukraine’s generals, who saw aspects of his robot-war vision as fanciful and argued for the continued need for infantry deployments.

在任期间，35岁的费多罗夫与乌克兰军方高层多次发生冲突。军方认为，他所倡导的机器人战争理念有些过于理想化，坚持认为步兵投入仍然不可或缺。

Fedorov was ultimately fired after he blocked purchases of artillery ammunition in favor of drones. Syrskyi insisted that the ammunition was still needed in the brutal trench fighting in the country’s east.

费多罗夫最终因阻止采购火炮弹药、转而力推无人机而遭到解职。瑟尔斯基坚持认为，在乌克兰东部残酷的战壕战中，炮弹仍是必需品。

But Fedorov didn’t back down. Instead, he responded with a press conference, where he delivered the most scathing public critique of Ukraine’s military leadership so far during the war.

但费多罗夫并未退缩。相反，他召开了一场新闻发布会，对乌克兰军事领导层提出了战争爆发以来最严厉的公开批评。

Fedorov accused the 60-year-old Syrskyi, an old-school general, of strategic shortsightedness — of thwarting the careers of promising junior commanders and resisting the drone and robot combat that’s transforming the war. He said he had sought to root out what he described as rampant corruption in defense procurement and made enemies as a result.

费多罗夫指责现年60岁的传统派将领瑟尔斯基战略眼光短浅，压制有潜力的年轻指挥官晋升，不愿接受正在改变战争形态的无人机和机器人作战方式。他还表示，自己一直试图杜绝国防采购中猖獗的腐败现象，因此树敌众多。

In the aftermath of his firing, protesters poured out into cities across the country, many of them carrying signs with variations on “Fedorov is innovation, old grandpas are degeneration.”

费多罗夫被解职后，全国多座城市爆发抗议活动，许多人举着标语，写着“费多罗夫代表创新，老爷爷们代表退化”等类似的口号。

In the days since, however, what began as a show of support for Fedorov morphed into demands for Zelensky to fire Syrskyi.

然而，在随后的几天里，最初对费多罗夫的支持已演变为要求泽连斯基解雇瑟尔斯基的呼声。

Crowds in Kyiv, which included active-duty soldiers and veterans, began deriding the man who successfully commanded pivotal battles earlier in the war. Meanwhile, a cardboard cutout of Fedorov got cheers when it appeared on a balcony overlooking the demonstration.

基辅的抗议人群中包括现役军人和退伍军人，他们开始公开嘲讽这位曾在战争初期成功指挥多场关键战役的将领。与此同时，一个费多罗夫的人形立板出现在俯瞰示威活动的阳台上，赢得了欢呼。

Ukrainian leaders take street protests seriously. They’ve toppled multiple governments. They’re viewed as a pillar of democracy and as an important contrast to the authoritarianism of Russia under President Vladimir Putin.

乌克兰领导人历来严肃对待街头抗议。街头抗议曾多次推翻政府，被视为乌克兰民主制度的重要支柱，也是乌克兰区别于普京领导下俄罗斯威权体制的重要象征。

It wasn’t long before Zelensky was holding back-to-back video calls with army commanders, showing a willingness to hear their complaints. By Tuesday evening, Syrskyi was gone.

没过多久，泽连斯基就与军队指挥官接连进行视频通话，表现出愿意倾听他们抱怨的态度。到周二晚间，瑟尔斯基离职。

When success breeds pushback

成功为何引发反弹

One Ukrainian journalist told me that the rift over how to wage the war had come into the open now “precisely because there are successes” on the battlefield.

一位乌克兰记者对我说，关于如何打赢战争的裂痕之所以现在公开化，“恰恰是因为战场上取得了一系列胜利”。

The people advocating high-tech warfare felt vindicated and became more vocal, said Volodymyr Yermolenko, the editor of a culture and politics magazine. Then those favoring a more conventional approach pushed back.

《文化与政治》杂志主编沃洛德米尔·叶尔莫连科表示，倡导高科技战争的人感到自己的判断得到了印证，发声更为积极。随后，支持更传统方式的一方进行了反击。

But that sort of clash carries risks. “Ukrainian history shows that if we are united, it’s very difficult to win against Ukraine,” Yermolenko said.

但这种冲突本身就暗藏风险。“乌克兰的历史表明，只要我们团结一致，就很难被战胜，”叶尔莫连科说。

“The biggest enemy is internal division,” he said. “Our history taught us this can be deadly.”

“最大的敌人是内部分裂，”他说。“我们的历史告诉我们，这可能是致命的。”

Will these firings be enough to restore unity?

那么，这两次人事调整足以让乌克兰内部恢复团结吗？