China quietly mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice in recent weeks to form massive floating barriers of at least 200 miles long, showing a new level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas.

中国在最近几周内两次悄然调动数千艘渔船，组成至少320公里长的巨型漂浮屏障，显示出一种前所未有的协同水平，这可能为北京在争议海域施加控制提供更多手段。

The two recent operations unfolded largely unnoticed. An analysis of ship-tracking data by The New York Times reveals the scale and complexity of the maneuvers for the first time.

这两次行动在实施过程中几乎未引起注意。《纽约时报》通过对船舶追踪数据的分析首次揭示了这些行动的规模与复杂程度。

Last week, about 1,400 Chinese vessels abruptly dropped their usual fishing activities or sailed out of their home ports and congregated in the East China Sea. By Jan. 11, they had assembled into a rectangle stretching more than 200 miles. The formation was so dense that some approaching cargo ships appeared to skirt around them or had to zigzag through, ship-tracking data showed.

上周，大约1400艘中国船只在东海集结，这些渔船有的突然停止了日常捕鱼活动，有的从母港驶出。到1月11日，它们已排成一个延伸超过320公里的矩形阵列。船舶追踪数据显示，该阵列密度极高，以至于一些驶近的货船不得不绕行或在其间曲折穿行通过。

Maritime and military experts said the maneuvers suggested that China was strengthening its maritime militia, which is made up of civilian fishing boats trained to join in military operations. They said the maneuvers show that Beijing can rapidly muster large numbers of the boats in disputed seas.

海事和军事专家表示，这些行动表明中国正在加强其海上民兵力量。海上民兵由接受过军事行动训练的民用渔船组成。专家们称，这些演习表明北京能够在争议海域迅速集结大量此类船只。

The Jan. 11 maneuver followed a similar operation last month, when about 2,000 Chinese fishing boats assembled in two long, parallel formations on Christmas Day in the East China Sea. Each stretched 290 miles long, about the distance from New York City to Buffalo, forming a reverse L shape, ship-position data indicates. The two gatherings, weeks apart in the same waters, suggested a coordinated effort, analysts said.

1月11日的行动与上个月的一次行动类似：在圣诞节当天，约2000艘中国渔船在东海排成两列长长的平行队形。船舶位置数据显示，每列队形长达467公里，大致相当于纽约市到布法罗的距离，两条队形构成了一个倒“L”形。分析人士称，几周内在同一海域发生的两次集结表明这是一次协调一致的行动。

12月25日的船只编队。注：船只位置为当地时间12月25日晚上10时的最后已知位置。

The unusual formations were spotted by Jason Wang, the chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a company that analyzes data, and were independently confirmed by The Times using ship-location data provided by Starboard Maritime Intelligence.

这些不寻常的队列最早由数据分析公司ingeniSPACE的首席运营官杰森·王发现，《纽约时报》利用Starboard Maritime Intelligence提供的船舶定位数据进行了独立核实。

“I was thinking to myself, ‘This is not right’,” he said, describing his response when he spotted the fishing boats on Christmas Day. “I mean I’ve seen like a couple hundred — let’s say high hundreds,” he said, referring to Chinese boats he has previously tracked, “but nothing of this scale or of this distinctive formation.”

“我当时心里想，‘这不对劲’，”他在回忆起自己在圣诞节发现这些渔船时的反应时说。“我的意思是，我以前见过几百艘——应该说是大几百吧，”他提到此前追踪过的中国船只，“但从来没有见过这种规模，也从未见过如此独特的编队。”

In a conflict or crisis, for instance over Taiwan, China could mobilize tens of thousands of civilian ships, including fishing boats, to clog sea lanes and complicate military and supply operations of its opponents.

在冲突或危机中（例如在台湾问题上），中国可能会动员包括渔船在内的数以万计的民用船只来堵塞航道，使对手的军事和补给行动变得复杂。

Chinese fishing boats would be too small to effectively enforce a blockade. But they could possibly obstruct movement by American warships, said Lonnie Henley, a former U.S. intelligence officer who has studied China’s maritime militia.

这些中国渔船的体量太小，难以有效执行封锁。但它们可能会阻碍美国军舰的行动，曾研究中国海上民兵的美国前情报官员朗尼·亨利说。

The masses of the smaller boats could also act “as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming radars or drone sensors with too many targets,” said Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. naval officer now at the Center for a New American Security.

大量的小型船只还可能“充当导弹和鱼雷的诱饵，用大量目标来淹没雷达或无人机传感器”，前美国海军军官、现就职于新美国安全中心的托马斯·舒加特表示。

Satellite imagery from Jan. 10, the day before the formation, shows fishing vessels sailing toward the area.

1月10日，也就是这些船只编队形成的前一天，卫星图像显示大量渔船正驶向该海域。

注：图片拍摄于当地时间1月10日上午11时左右。部分船只可能并非中国渔船。

Analysts tracking the ships were struck by the scale of the maneuvers, even given China’s record of mobilizing civilian boats, which has involved anchoring boats for weeks on contested reefs, for instance, to project Beijing’s claims in territorial disputes.

即便考虑到中国此前也曾动员民用船只（例如在争议岛礁上让船只锚泊数周，以彰显北京在领土争端中的主张），这次行动的规模仍令追踪船只的分析人士感到震惊。

“The sight of that many vessels operating in concert is staggering,” said Mark Douglas, an analyst at Starboard, a company with offices in New Zealand and the United States. Mr. Douglas said that he and his colleagues had “never seen a formation of this size and discipline before.”

“这么多船只协同作战的景象令人震惊，”Starboard公司的分析师马克·道格拉斯说。该公司在新西兰和美国设有办公室。他表示，他和同事们“从未见过如此规模、如此纪律严明的编队”。

“The level of coordination to get that many vessels into a formation like this is significant,” he said.

“要让这么多船只进入这样的队形，其协调程度是相当高的，”他说。

The assembled boats held relatively steady positions, rather than sailing in patterns typical of fishing, such as paths that loop or go back and forth, analysts said. The ship-location data draws on navigation signals broadcast by the vessels.

分析人士称，这些集结的船只保持着相对稳定的位置，而不是像正常捕鱼那样航行，例如走回环路线或来回穿梭。船舶定位数据来自这些船只广播的导航信号。

注：船舶航线是根据当地时间2026年1月10日晚上10时开始的30小时内的位置数据估算得出的。

The operations appeared to mark a bold step in China’s efforts to train fishing boats to gather en masse, in order to impede or monitor other countries’ ships, or to help Beijing assert its territorial claims by establishing a perimeter, said Mr. Wang of ingeniSPACE.

ingeniSPACE的杰森·王表示，这些行动似乎标志着中国在训练渔船大规模集结方面迈出了大胆一步，目的是阻碍或监控他国船只，或通过建立周边屏障来帮助北京维护其领土主张。

“They’re scaling up, and that scaling indicates their ability to do better command and control of civilian ships,” he said.

“他们正在扩大规模，而这种规模的扩大表明他们对民用船只的指挥和控制能力正在提升，”他说。

The Chinese government has not said anything publicly about the fishing boats’ activities. The ship-signals data appeared to be reliable and not “spoofed” — that is, manipulated to create false impressions of the boats’ locations — Mr. Wang and Mr. Douglas both said.

中国政府尚未公开就这些渔船的活动发表任何声明。杰森·王和道格拉斯都表示，船舶信号数据似乎可靠，并非“伪造”——也就是说，没有被篡改以制造渔船位置的虚假印象。

Researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, when approached by The Times with these findings, confirmed that they had observed the same packs of boats with their own ship-location analysis.

《纽约时报》就这些发现联系了位于华盛顿的战略与国际问题研究中心，该中心的研究人员证实，他们通过自己的船舶定位分析也观察到了同样的船队。

“They are almost certainly not fishing, and I can’t think of any explanation that isn’t state-directed,” Gregory Poling, the director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at C.S.I.S., wrote in emailed comments.

“它们几乎肯定不是在捕鱼，而且我想不出任何非国家主导的解释，”战略与国际问题研究中心亚洲海事透明倡议主任格雷戈里·波林在电邮中写道。

The fishing boats assembled in the East China Sea, near major shipping lanes that branch out from Shanghai, among the world’s busiest ports. Cargo ships crisscross the sea daily, including ones carrying Chinese exports to the United States.

这些渔船集结在东海，靠近从上海分流出的主要航运通道。上海是世界上最繁忙的港口之一，货船每天在这片海域交叉穿梭，其中包括运载中国出口商品前往美国的船只。

These are maritime arteries that China would seek to control in a clash with the United States or its Asian allies, including in a possible crisis over Taiwan, the island-democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

在与美国或其亚洲盟友发生冲突时，包括在可能发生的台湾危机中，这里都将是中国试图控制的海上动脉。台湾是一个岛屿民主政体，北京宣称对其拥有主权。

“My best guess is this was an exercise to see how the civilians would do if told to muster at scale in a future contingency, perhaps in support of quarantine, blockade, or other pressure tactics against Taiwan,” Mr. Poling wrote. A “quarantine” means a sea operation to seal off an area that is meant to fall short of an act of war.

“我认为最有可能的是，这是一次演练，目的是看看在未来的突发情况下，例如为对台湾实施隔离、封锁，或其他施压手段提供支持时，如果要求这些平民船只大规模集结，他们的表现会怎么样，”波林写道。“隔离”指的是旨在封锁某一区域，但意在避免构成战争行为的海上行动。

The boat maneuvers in January took place shortly after Beijing held two days of military exercises around Taiwan, including practicing naval maneuvers to blockade the island. Beijing is also in a bitter dispute with Japan over its support for Taiwan.

1月的渔船行动发生在北京举行了为期两天的环台军事演习后不久，演习内容包括模拟封锁台湾的海上行动。北京还因日本支持台湾而与其陷入激烈争端。

The fishing boat operations could have been held to signal “opposition to Japan” or practice for possible confrontations with Japan or Taiwan, said Andrew S. Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College who studies China’s maritime activities. He noted that he spoke for himself, not for his college or the navy.

研究中国海上活动的美国海军战争学院教授安德鲁·S·埃里克森表示，这些渔船行动可能是为了表明“反对日本”的立场，或为可能与日本或台湾发生的对峙进行演练。他指出，他的观点仅代表个人，并不代表其所在学院或海军。

Japan’s Ministry of Defense and coast guard both declined to comment on the Chinese fishing boats, citing the need to protect their information-gathering capabilities.

日本防卫省和海上保安厅均拒绝就这些中国渔船发表评论，理由是需要保护其情报收集能力。

Some of the fishing boats had taken part in previous maritime militia activities or belonged to fishing fleets known to be involved in militia activities, based on a scan of Chinese state media reports. China does not publish the names of most vessels in its maritime militia, making it difficult to identify the status of the boats involved.

根据对中国官方媒体报道的梳理，其中一些渔船曾参与过此前的海上民兵活动，或隶属于已知参与民兵活动的渔船队。中国不公布其海上民兵组织大多数船只的名称，这使得识别相关船只的身份变得困难。

But the tight coordination of the boats showed it was probably “an at-sea mobilization and exercise of maritime militia forces,” Professor Erickson said.

但这些船只的高度协调性表明，这很可能是“一次在海上进行的海上民兵力量动员与演练”，埃里克森说。

2023年，悬挂中国国旗的船只停泊在南海争议水域。

China has in recent years used maritime militia fishing boats in dozens or even hundreds to support its navy, sometimes by swarming, maneuvering dangerously close, and physically bumping other boats in disputes with other countries.

近年来，中国曾动用数十艘乃至数百艘海上民兵渔船来支援其海军，在与他国发生争端时，渔船有时会蜂拥而上、危险靠近、甚至与对方船只发生物理碰撞。

The recent massing of boats appeared to show that maritime militia units are becoming more organized and better equipped with navigation and communications technology.

最近这次大规模集结似乎表明，海上民兵部队的组织性越来越强，导航和通信技术的装备也越来越好。

“It does mark an improvement in their ability to marshal and control a large number of militia vessels,” said Mr. Henley, the former U.S. intelligence officer, who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. “That’s one of the main challenges to making the maritime militia a useful tool for either combat support or sovereignty protection.”

“这确实标志着他们在集结和控制大量民兵船只方面的能力有所提升，”前美国情报官员、现任费城外交政策研究所非常驻高级研究员亨利说。“这正是让海上民兵成为一种对作战支援或主权保护有用的工具所面临的主要挑战之一。”

What happens to an 80-year-old diplomatic alliance when its leading power threatens a military invasion of one member, wages economic war on the others and vows to cultivate political and cultural resistance to their governments?

在一个延续80年的外交同盟中，当主导国威胁军事入侵其中一员、对其他成员国发动经济战，还扬言培植反对这些国家政府的政治与文化势力，这个联盟会面临怎样的命运？

Is the alliance doomed?

这个外交同盟注定会走向覆灭吗？

That question is being asked in capitals across Europe as leaders rush to respond to President Trump’s rapidly escalating campaign to acquire Greenland over the objections of the people who live there. At issue most urgently is whether resisting Mr. Trump’s territorial ambitions risks damaging Europe’s relationship with the United States beyond repair.

特朗普总统不顾当地居民反对吞并格陵兰岛的行动正迅速升级，在欧洲领导人紧急应对之际，这个问题正在欧洲各国首都引发热议。当下最迫切的争议是，反抗特朗普的领土野心是否会让欧美关系遭受无法挽回的重创。

Some leaders — like President Emmanuel Macron of France and Lars Klingbeil, Germany’s finance minister — appear willing to take that risk, urging Europe’s nations to consider deploying an economic “bazooka” in response to Mr. Trump’s latest tariff threats.

部分欧洲领导人似乎愿意承担这一风险，法国总统马克龙和德国财政部长拉尔斯·克林贝尔便是其中代表，他们呼吁欧洲各国考虑祭出经济“火箭筒”，回击特朗普最新的关税威胁。

Leaders from across Europe are expected to gather in Brussels this week to present a united response to Mr. Trump’s provocations. Veteran observers of European politics said the alliance between Europe and the United States that formed in the aftermath of World War II had already been fundamentally altered.

欧洲各国领导人预计会在本周齐聚布鲁塞尔，针对特朗普的一系列挑衅给出统一回应。欧洲政治资深观察人士表示，二战后建立的这一欧美同盟已发生根本性改变。

It is no longer an alliance designed primarily to advance the interests of like-minded democracies, they said. Instead, it is a relationship on Mr. Trump’s terms alone — one in which he wields the leverage that comes from American power to force Europeans to cater to his whims.

他们称，这个以推动理念相通的民主国家的共同利益为初衷的组织如今已经面目全非，彻底沦为由特朗普单方面主导的关系——他利用美国实力的杠杆，逼迫欧洲各国迁就其各种心血来潮的意愿。

“To use what is essentially economic warfare with allies is unprecedented in this way,” said Ian Lesser, who leads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund, a research group.

“以这种方式对盟友发动实质上的经济战，在历史上是前所未有的，”研究机构德国马歇尔基金会布鲁塞尔办公室负责人伊恩·莱塞表示。

There appears to be a consensus in much of Europe that it needs to build new economic and military capacities to make it less dependent on the United States. But that will take years, if not decades. In the meantime, Europe’s businesses and financial markets will still be intertwined with the buying power of consumers in the United States, and Ukraine will still need American weapons to defend itself against Russia.

欧洲多数国家已形成共识：必须打造新的经济和军事能力，降低对美国的依赖。但这一目标即便不用数十年，也需要数年时间才能实现。在此期间，欧洲的企业和金融市场仍与美国消费者的购买力深度交织，乌克兰也依旧需要美国的武器，才能抵御俄罗斯的进攻。

In fact, months of diplomatic effort to negotiate a cease-fire in the Ukraine war have only underscored that NATO, which was formed to defend Europe, is unable to fend off Russian aggression without security guarantees by the United States.

事实上，数月来为推动乌克兰战争停火展开的外交努力，恰恰凸显了一个事实：若没有美国的安全保障，为捍卫欧洲而成立的北约无力抵挡俄罗斯的军事行动。

”It would be foolish at a time of war in Europe to jettison all of the sort of strategic and operational benefits that come with the alliance,” Mr. Lesser said. “But if the United States is no longer a reliable partner in that alliance, then Europe needs to do something else.”

“在欧洲深陷战事的当下，抛弃同盟带来的各类战略与作战优势是极为愚蠢的做法，”莱塞说。“但如果美国在同盟中不再是可靠的伙伴，那么欧洲就必须另寻出路。”

That effort is already underway, slowly.

这一努力已然开启，然而进程十分缓慢。

The same day that Mr. Trump announced his latest tariff threat on social media, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, and António Costa, the president of the European Council, were in Paraguay to sign a major trade deal with a bloc of Latin American countries, one that was 25 years in the making.

就在特朗普在社交媒体上宣布最新关税威胁的同一天，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔正在巴拉圭，与一个拉美国家联盟签署了一项酝酿了25年的重大贸易协定。

Mr. Trump has so far been happy to welcome European money to purchase American-made arms for Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe. And he relishes surprising his so-called allies, as he demonstrated on Saturday when he announced tariffs on a group of European nations, including Britain, unless Greenland is sold to the United States.

迄今为止，特朗普乐见欧洲出资为乌克兰及其他东欧国家采购美国武器。同时，他也热衷于出其不意地对待这些所谓盟友——上周六他便做出了这样的举动，宣布将对包括英国在内的欧洲国家加征关税，除非这些国家同意将格陵兰岛卖给美国。

That raises the stakes for the decisions that Europe is grappling with in the days ahead. It must choose how aggressively to confront Mr. Trump without knowing what the always-unpredictable president will do.

这让欧洲未来数日的决策变得更为棘手。欧洲必须决定以何种强硬程度对抗特朗普，却又无法预判这位向来反复无常的总统下一步会采取何种行动。

“Is he serious? What does Europe do now? How does the U.S. respond?” Mr. Lesser said. “There will be those who say, ‘OK, how do we get through this?’ Is it possible to simply to engage in a kind of negotiation or investment or whatever it may be, that will defer anything radical?”

“他是认真的吗？欧洲现在该怎么办？美国又会作何回应？”莱塞接连发问。“一定会有人说，‘那我们该如何度过这场危机？’能否单纯通过谈判、投资或其他某种方式，暂缓激进举措的出台？”

Mr. Trump has already made it clear that he views America’s European allies with disdain.

特朗普早已明确表达自己对美国的欧洲盟友的不屑。

In his annual National Security Strategy, released last month, officials from Mr. Trump’s administration questioned whether some European countries would remain “reliable allies” in the future.

在上月发布的年度《国家安全战略》报告中，特朗普政府官员对部分欧洲国家未来能否继续成为美国“可靠的盟友”提出了质疑。

The document conceded that Europe was “strategically and culturally vital” to the United States. But it said the continent faced the “stark prospect of civilizational erasure” unless the United States helped like-minded “patriotic European parties” — a phrase that was widely understood to mean the far right — to win power.

这份报告虽承认欧洲对美国而言“具有至关重要的战略和文化意义”，但称除非美国出手扶持理念相通的“欧洲爱国政党”——该表述普遍被理解为极右翼势力——赢得政权，否则欧洲大陆将面临“文明消亡的严峻前景”。

For Europeans on the receiving end of those assertions, the president’s threats about acquiring Greenland “the easy way” or “the hard way” have further eroded the trust that was central to their alliance with the United States for decades.

对于听到这番言论的欧洲人而言，特朗普扬言要么以“和平方式”、要么以“强硬手段”夺取格陵兰岛的威胁进一步侵蚀了数十年来欧美同盟的核心基石——信任。

“Going back to the level of trust that we saw beforehand would require, I think, generational change,” said Rosa Balfour, the director of Carnegie Europe, a political think tank. “The attack on Europe is not just coming from an individual, you know — it’s been turned into an ideology.”

“我认为，要想恢复往日的互信水平，恐怕需要经历一代人的更迭，”政治智库卡内基欧洲中心主任罗莎·巴尔弗表示。“要知道，对欧洲的攻击并非来自某一个人——而是已然演变成了一种意识形态。”

上月，乌克兰防空部队士兵。近期停火谈判凸显出，没有美国的支持，欧洲无法抵御俄罗斯的侵略。

Since the latest Greenland threats, more voices have begun urging assertive action.

自特朗普做出关于格陵兰岛的最新威胁后，欧洲国内呼吁采取强硬反制行动的声音越来越多。

In a statement over the weekend, Mr. Macron vowed that “no intimidation or threat will influence us — neither in Ukraine, nor in Greenland, nor anywhere else in the world.”

马克龙在周末发表的声明中誓言：“无论是在乌克兰、格陵兰岛，还是世界其他任何地方，任何恐吓与威胁都无法影响我们。”

He called Mr. Trump’s tariff threats “unacceptable” and vowed: “Europeans will respond in a united and coordinated manner should they be confirmed. We will ensure that European sovereignty is upheld.”

他称特朗普的关税威胁“不可接受”，并承诺：“一旦这些威胁落地，欧洲将以团结、协调的方式予以回应。我们将确保欧洲主权得到维护。”

Others, like Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, have argued for a diplomatic solution and cautioned against grandstanding. “That’s an understandable instinct, but it’s not effective,” the prime minister told reporters on Monday morning. “It never has been. It may make politicians feel good, but it does nothing for working people whose jobs, livelihoods and security rely on the relationships that we build across the world.”

而英国首相斯塔默等领导人则主张通过外交途径解决问题，并告诫各方切勿哗众取宠。“这种想法可以理解，但并无实际效果，”斯塔默周一上午对记者表示。“这种做法从未奏效，它或许能让政治人士自我感觉良好，但对那些依靠全球关系维系工作、生计和安全的人民毫无裨益。”

Still, Ms. Balfour said that more leaders were beginning to realize that capitulating to Mr. Trump’s demands was not always in Europe’s interests. In fact, it often leads Mr. Trump to demand more concessions.

尽管如此，巴尔弗表示，越来越多的欧洲领导人开始意识到，屈从于特朗普的要求并非总能符合欧洲的利益，事实上，这种做法往往会让特朗普提出更多让步要求。

If true, that could have implications for the alliance with the United States and whether it survives in the future.

倘若事实果真如此，这将对欧美的同盟关系和存续产生深远影响。

“Reality, I think, is sinking into the mind-sets of those people who have been advocating caution, dialogue and ‘Let’s listen to what Trump has to say,’” Ms. Balfour said. “You can feel that kind of change.”

“我能感受到，那些一直主张保持谨慎、开展对话、‘听听特朗普的诉求’的人，心态正逐渐回归现实，”巴尔弗说，“这种转变是切实存在的。”

Regular exercise is one of the most effective ways to lengthen your life.

规律运动是延长寿命的最有效方法之一。

Research consistently shows that physical activity is linked to lower risk of cancer, depression, dementia, Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

研究一再表明，体育锻炼与降低癌症、抑郁症、痴呆症、2型糖尿病和心血管疾病的风险存在关联。

Federal guidelines recommend at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise per week, along with two days of muscle-strengthening activities. But the payoff starts much earlier: Even four to five minutes of vigorous physical activity every day has been linked to longevity benefits.

联邦指南建议，每周至少进行150分钟中等强度的有氧运动，并搭配两天的力量训练。但运动带来的益处其实更早就会显现：研究发现，即使每天只进行四到五分钟的高强度体力活动也能带来延寿益处。

“Some is good — more is better,” said Steven Moore, a metabolic epidemiologist at the National Cancer Institute.

“做一点运动就有好处——做得更多会更好，”国家癌症研究所的代谢流行病学家史蒂文·摩尔说。

While staying active is critical, playing sports adds a social aspect and extra cognitive demands to exercising. And research suggests that some sports may offer a bigger longevity boost than others.

尽管保持活跃至关重要，但参加体育运动还能为锻炼增添社交元素和额外的认知需求。研究显示，与其他运动相比，某些运动可能对延年益寿有更显著的效果。

The case for tennis

网球为何益寿

Walking may be America’s go-to activity, but several studies have highlighted the benefits of tennis for longevity.

尽管散步可能是美国人最常进行的运动，但多项研究强调了网球对延年益寿的好处。

One study from Denmark found that tennis players lived almost 10 years longer than their sedentary peers — and longer than soccer players, swimmers and the other recreational athletes included in the analysis. Other research from Britain and the United States followed people for about a decade and found that playing racket sports was linked to a lower risk of death during the follow-up period than any other sport or form of exercise studied.

丹麦的一项研究发现，打网球的人比久坐不动的人平均多活将近10年——寿命也长于踢足球、游泳以及研究中纳入的其他休闲运动参与者。来自英国和美国的研究追踪调查对象约10年后发现，与所研究的其他任何运动或锻炼形式相比，进行球拍类运动的人在随访期间死亡风险更低。

These findings don’t prove that tennis causes people to live longer, said Emmanuel Stamatakis, an epidemiologist at the University of Sydney and the senior author of the British study, since the studies weren’t designed to tease out why any one sport was particularly beneficial. It’s possible, for example, that people who play racket sports tend to be healthier and wealthier than people who don’t, although the researchers tried to account for those differences.

悉尼大学流行病学家、英国那项研究的第一作者伊曼纽尔·斯塔马塔基斯指出，这些发现并不能证明网球直接增进人的寿命，因为这些研究并非为了解释为何某一种运动特别有益。例如，这可能是因为打网球的人往往比不打网球的人更健康、更富裕——尽管研究人员已试图考虑这些差异。

Still, experts believe that tennis’s unique blend of physical, cognitive and social challenges contribute to healthy aging.

尽管如此，专家们认为，网球在身体、认知和社交层面的独特组合有助于健康地老去。

For one, tennis offers a full-body workout. The game also demands quick changes in direction, which can help improve balance and reduce a person’s risk of falls, Dr. Moore said. Research suggests that playing regularly can also improve bone density, strengthening the body against fractures, he added.

首先，网球是一项全身运动。比赛需要频繁快速变向，这有助于改善平衡、降低跌倒风险，国家癌症研究所的史蒂文·摩尔说。他还补充，研究表明，经常打网球还能提高骨密度，增强身体抗骨折的能力。

In tennis, you also alternate between intense bursts of movement and brief periods of recovery — a structure that mimics interval training and can efficiently improve your fitness.

在网球运动中，你需要在剧烈的爆发性移动与短暂的恢复期之间交替——这种结构模拟了间歇训练，能高效提升体能。

Beyond the physical effort, the sport is also cognitively demanding and intrinsically social, two factors that are crucial to longevity, said Mark Kovacs, a sports scientist who has coached top tennis players.

曾指导顶级网球运动员的运动科学家马克·科瓦奇指出，除了体力的消耗，这项运动还对认知有要求，并且具有社交属性——这两点对长寿都至关重要。

Many other sports exercise your brain and buffer against isolation, but people who play tennis also tend to stick with it later into life compared with other sports, said Rochelle Eime, a professor of sport science at Federation University Australia. After all, you need only one partner, and it’s relatively gentle on the body, Dr. Eime added.

澳大利亚联邦大学运动科学教授罗谢尔·艾姆表示，还有许多运动同样能锻炼大脑、缓解孤独感，但与其他项目相比，打网球的人往往能坚持到更晚的年龄。毕竟，这项运动只需要一名搭档，而且对身体的冲击相对温和。

What about other activities?

那其他运动呢？

While tennis stands out in some studies, many other recreational sports are linked with longevity benefits.

虽然在一些研究中网球尤为突出，但许多其他休闲运动也被证实与延年益寿相关。

In a study of nearly 300,000 older adults in the United States, for example, cycling was linked to 3 percent lower risk of dying over a 12-year period, swimming was linked to a 5 percent lower risk and golf was linked to a 7 percent lower risk, compared with those who did other activities, said Dr. Moore, who led the research.

例如，摩尔说，在一项针对近30万美国老年人的研究中发现，与进行其他运动的人群相比，在12年的周期内，骑自行车者的死亡风险降低3%，游泳降低5%，打高尔夫则降低7%。他是该研究的负责人。

While cycling primarily works the lower body, swimming adds upper-body conditioning. Golf tends to involve more gentle aerobic activity but also requires rotational power, balance and fine motor control. This mix of physical demands might drive modest differences in longevity, but experts can’t say for sure — and they don’t recommend swapping activities based on the results. The main takeaway is to find a sport you enjoy and stay active, Dr. Moore said.

骑自行车主要锻炼下肢，而游泳能加强上肢训练。高尔夫通常属于较为温和的有氧活动，但也需要躯干的旋转爆发力、平衡能力和精细动作控制。这种不同的身体负荷组合，或许会带来寿命方面的细微差异，但专家们并不能确定——也不建议根据这些结果去更换运动项目。摩尔表示，最重要的一点是找到你喜欢的运动并能长期坚持的运动。

Resistance training is also critical to aging well: One large analysis found that an hour each week lowers a person’s risk of dying by 25 percent, while other research tied resistance training to better mood and cognitive function. Strength training can help fend off age-related declines in muscle mass so that you can maintain independence and day-to-day function, said Dr. I-Min Lee, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

抗阻训练对于健康老去同样至关重要：一项大规模分析发现，每周进行一小时抗阻训练可使死亡风险降低25%，其他研究也表明抗阻训练与改善情绪及认知功能相关。哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院的流行病学家李怡敏博士（音）强调，力量训练有助于抵御年龄增长导致的肌肉流失，从而保持独立生活能力与日常活动功能。

How to optimize your workout for longevity

如何优化锻炼方式以延长寿命

Building new skills and challenging your brain are generally good for healthy aging, so it’s worth finding a sport you enjoy.

学习新技能、不断挑战大脑通常有助于健康老去，因此找到一项你喜爱的运动是值得的。

However you decide to get moving, keep these longevity tips in mind.

无论你选择何种方式开始运动，请牢记以下这些有助长寿的建议。

Make it social. For decades, social connectedness has been tied to better health and a longer life. Find ways to be active with other people, like joining a run club, signing up for a group fitness class or trying a new sport through your local recreation center or parks department. This social element also helps with motivation and accountability, Dr. Stamatakis said.

融入社交元素。数十年来，社交联系一直与更佳的健康状况和更长的寿命密切相关。寻找与他人共同运动的方式，比如加入跑步俱乐部、报名参加团体健身课程，或通过当地休闲中心或公园管理部门尝试一项新运动。斯塔马塔基斯指出，这种社交元素也有助于保持动力和责任感。

Keep challenging yourself. Sports are mentally engaging because they’re dynamic and goal-driven, Dr. Kovacs said. But you can bring that mind-set to any form of exercise. First, add some novelty: a new route, a different gym routine or an unusual playing environment. Second, set clear, short-term goals that push you forward, like increasing your walking time or nudging up the weight you lift.

持续挑战自己。科瓦奇表示，体育运动之所以能激发大脑，是因为它们具有动态变化和目标导向的特征。但这种思维方式也可以应用到任何形式的锻炼中。首先，增加一些新鲜感：换一条路线、调整健身计划，或在不寻常的环境中运动。其次，设定清晰、短期的目标来推动自己前进，比如延长步行时间，或逐步提高举重重量。

Exercise your whole body. Cardio staples like running and cycling are great ways to stay active, Dr. Moore said. But pair them with upper-body work, including resistance training, so that you’re getting a full-body workout and building muscle. Research suggests that people who do both aerobic exercise and strength training live the longest.

锻炼全身。摩尔说，跑步、骑行等经典有氧运动是保持活跃的好方式，但应搭配上肢训练，包括抗阻训练，这样才能实现全身锻炼和增肌。研究表明，同时进行有氧运动和力量训练的人寿命最长。

Aim for consistency. The benefits of exercise only stick if you keep doing it as you get older, Dr. Lee said. While tennis is sometimes called a “lifetime sport,” you don’t need to stick with one activity forever. Mixing things up can keep exercise fresh and easier to sustain, especially as your body changes.

追求持续性。李怡敏指出，只有随着年龄增长持续锻炼，运动的益处才会稳固显现。虽然网球常被称为“终身运动”，但你并不需要一辈子只做一种运动。适当混合不同项目，有助于保持新鲜感，也更容易长期坚持，尤其是在身体状况发生变化时。

Ultimately, any and all physical activity improves longevity.

归根结底，任何形式、任何强度的身体活动都能延长寿命。

“Find something that works for you,” Dr. Lee said. “The bottom line is to move more.”

李怡敏说：“找到适合你的方式。最重要的一点就是多动动。”

For China, President Trump’s power grab in Venezuela is a frontal attack on a longstanding source of oil, cultivated through billions of dollars in loans and years of political courtship. But Mr. Trump has also expressed a wider vision for power that involves breaking China’s economic dominance across Latin America.

对中国而言，特朗普总统在委内瑞拉的夺权行动直接冲击了它通过数百亿美元的贷款和多年政治拉拢培育起来的长期石油供应源。但特朗普还表达了一个更广泛的战略愿景，其中就包括打破中国在整个拉丁美洲的经济主导地位。

His new focus — and willingness to put military force behind it — threatens to loosen China’s economic grip in a region where it has quietly used abundant trade, enormous loans and financial tie-ups to build influence.

他的新关注点以及不惜动用武力的意愿可能削弱中国在拉丁美洲的经济控制力。中国一直在该地区悄然通过庞大的贸易规模、巨额贷款以及错综复杂的金融绑定来建立影响力。

China has gone from doing nearly no business in the region two decades ago to bilateral trade worth more than $500 billion in 2024.

20年前，中国在该地区几乎没有任何商业活动；而到2024年，中国与拉美的双边贸易额已超过5000亿美元。

Chinese mining companies extract copper from Peru and lithium from Argentina. China’s agricultural conglomerates import lifeline commodities like soybeans from Brazil. Chinese utilities power entire cities. China controls much of the shipping infrastructure and the ports that transit goods across the Pacific.

中国的矿业公司在秘鲁开采铜矿，在阿根廷开采锂矿。中国的农业巨头从巴西进口大豆等关键农产品。中国的电力企业为整座城市供电。中国更掌控着跨太平洋货运基础设施与港口网络。

Latin America’s 670 million consumers are also buying Chinese brands. In Mexico, dealerships sell gasoline-powered Chery cars and MG sedans. In Brazil, the fast-food chain Mixue sells ice cream, the e-commerce platform Meituan delivers food and the ride-hailing service Didi ferries people around. In Peru, Xiaomi smartphones are popular.

拉丁美洲约6.7亿消费者也在购买中国品牌。在墨西哥，经销商销售奇瑞燃油车和MG轿车。在巴西有蜜雪冰城连锁店、美团外卖平台和滴滴出行服务。在秘鲁，小米智能手机广受欢迎。

China has closely followed Mr. Trump’s comments singling out countries like Colombia, Cuba and Mexico, and it has expressed its opposition to the U.S. actions in Venezuela, saying China’s economic relationship with the country is “protected by international law and relevant laws.”

中国密切关注特朗普针对哥伦比亚、古巴和墨西哥等国家的表态，并对美国在委内瑞拉的行动表示反对，称中国与该国的经济关系“受到国际法和相关法律的保护”。

秘鲁查瓦瓦乔，一座由中国公司运营的铜矿。（资料照片，拍摄时间不详）2023年，习近平和马杜罗在北京会面。（资料照片）

A spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry said this week that “China will continue to work with Latin American countries to address international vicissitudes.”

中国商务部一名发言人本周表示：“中方愿同拉方一道，继续团结协作应对国际风云变幻。”

China is still owed, by one estimate, about $10 billion that Venezuela is paying off through oil shipments. Last year, more than half of its crude exports — or 768,000 barrels per day — went to China, according to Kpler, a global oil monitoring service.

据估计，委内瑞拉仍欠中国约100亿美元，正通过石油出口偿还。根据全球石油监测机构Kpler的数据，去年委内瑞拉超过一半的原油出口——即每日76.8万桶——流向中国。

Washington’s new strategy “explicitly focuses on China’s influence in Latin America, which will pose certain challenges to Chinese investment,” said Tao Zhigang, a Chinese economist. This investment “faces a lot of uncertainty,” Mr. Tao told local Chinese media.

中国经济学家陶志刚表示，华盛顿的新战略“明确关注中国在拉美的影响力，这会给中企投资带来一定挑战”。他对中国当地媒体说，这类投资“确实有不确定性”。

China’s pursuit of deeper ties in Latin America began two decades ago. At the time, Chinese companies were scouring the world to secure copper, oil and iron ore to power China’s breathtaking economic growth. Chinese banks extended ever-larger loans to countries across Latin America in exchange for oil and critical minerals, and along the way China began building railways and highways and selling its goods.

中国深化与拉丁美洲关系的努力始于20年前。当时，中国企业在全球各地搜寻铜、石油和铁矿石，以支撑中国惊人的经济增长。中国的银行向拉美国家提供规模越来越大的贷款，换取石油和关键矿产。与此同时，中国开始修建铁路和公路，并向当地销售商品。

Since then, China has economically displaced the United States in 10 of 12 countries in South America alone, according to research by Francisco Urdinez, an associate professor of political science at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. China now engages in more trade, investment and development financing than the United States in most of the region, including Central America.

据智利天主教大学政治学副教授弗朗西斯科·乌尔迪内斯的研究，自那以后，仅在南美的12个国家中，中国在10个国家的经济影响力上取代了美国。如今，在拉丁美洲大多数国家（包括中美洲），中国在贸易、投资和发展融资方面都超过了美国。

China is Latin America’s largest official source of aid and credit, offering an estimated $303 billion in financing across the region between 2000 and 2023, according to AidData, a research institute at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. Between 2014 and 2023, for every $1 lent or given in aid by the United States in Latin America and the Caribbean, China provided $3, said Brad Parks, the executive director of AidData.

根据威廉与玛丽学院研究机构AidData的数据，2000年至2023年间，中国已成为拉丁美洲最大的官方援助和信贷来源，向该地区提供了约3030亿美元融资。AidData执行主任布拉德·帕克斯表示，在2014年至2023年间，美国在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区每提供1美元的贷款或援助，中国就提供了3美元。

These investments in many cases have left the countries saddled with debt and obligations to fulfill contracts for commodities like oil.

在许多案例中，这些投资让相关国家背负了沉重债务，并需履行石油等大宗商品合同的义务。

China’s lending binge also gave its companies an advantage when they bid for government contracts to build roads, power lines and major projects like a multibillion-dollar dam in the Ecuadorean jungle (which turned out to be ill fated). Over time, China’s economic activities translated into a handful of free-trade agreements and better access for Chinese companies.

中国的大规模放贷也让该国企业在竞标政府基建项目时占据优势——从道路、输电线路到大型工程项目（例如厄瓜多尔丛林中耗资数十亿美元、最终以失败告终的的大坝）。随着时间推移，中国的经济活动促成了若干自由贸易协定，并为中国企业带来了更便利的市场准入条件。

位于厄瓜多尔丛林中的科卡科多辛克雷大坝。中国的贷款帮助其企业获得了政府的基础设施建设合同。MG这样的中国汽车制造商已经在墨西哥站稳了脚跟。

Latin America swelled with a range of goods from Chinese factories, from car parts, electronic devices and appliances to equipment for satellites and space infrastructure — another area where China has invested heavily.

来自中国工厂的各类商品大量涌入拉丁美洲，从汽车零部件、电子产品和家用电器到卫星和太空基础设施设备——中国重金投入的另一领域。

The region, in turn, became China’s most important source of critical minerals, including rare earths, an industry that China has near-total global control over.

拉丁美洲也因此成为中国最重要的关键矿产来源地，包括稀土这个被中国近乎垄断全球供应链的产业。

“Hundreds of Chinese enterprises, and five to 10 banks from China, are on the ground in Latin America that were not active 20 years ago,” said Mr. Urdinez, the professor in Chile.

“如今有数百家中国企业以及五到10家中国银行在拉丁美洲开展业务，而在20年前它们还并不活跃，”乌尔迪内斯教授说。

“China hasn’t replaced the U.S. hegemony, but it has eroded the leverage that Washington once had in the 1980s and 1990s,” he said.

他说：“中国尚未取代美国的霸权，但它削弱了华盛顿在上世纪80年代和90年代曾经拥有的影响力。”

By countless measures, China has outpaced competitors. Chinese companies are selling more cars to Mexico than any other country. Chile is the second-largest overseas destination for Chinese electric buses. Some of the trade also travels in the other direction: Nearly half of Chile’s exports now go to China.

从诸多指标来看，中国已明显领先于竞争对手。中国企业向墨西哥出售的汽车数量超过任何其他国家。智利是中国电动公交车的第二大海外目的地。部分贸易也是双向的：智利近一半的出口产品如今销往中国。

But President Trump has signaled that he wants to curb China’s advances in the region.

但特朗普已表明，他希望遏制中国在该地区的扩张。

Before his military raid that removed Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, and took control of the country’s oil, Mr. Trump had threatened to “take back” the Panama Canal. He accused the canal’s main port operator, the Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings, of being an extension of China’s Communist Party. He called out Mexico for being a “back door” to the United States for Chinese goods. He has tried to use a 50 percent tariff on Brazil to secure a trade deal that limits Chinese investment in the country.

在发动军事行动、推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗并控制该国石油资源之前，特朗普曾威胁要“收回”巴拿马运河。他指责运河主要港口运营商香港企业长江和记实业实际上受中国共产党控制。他称墨西哥是中国商品进入美国的“后门”。他还试图通过对巴西征收50%的关税迫使其达成限制中国投资的贸易协议。

2021年，委内瑞拉蓬托菲霍附近，远处可见油轮和炼油厂。委内瑞拉一直以石油运输偿还中国的贷款。马杜罗被美国抓捕后，他在加拉加斯的支持者要求释放他。

And Mr. Trump released a national security strategy last month that asserted that he would deny “competitors” from outside the Western Hemisphere the ability “to own or control strategically vital assets, in our hemisphere.”

上个月，特朗普发布了一份国家安全战略，宣称将阻止来自西半球以外的“竞争对手”“拥有或控制我们半球内具有战略意义的关键资产”。

China’s business world is on alert. A consortium of Chinese companies that is developing a major copper mine in Ecuador said this week that it would put the project on hold, citing a “volatile” political situation in the country. China and Ecuador signed a free-trade agreement in 2023. At the time, Ecuadorean officials indicated that they would have preferred to sign with the United States.

中国商界已高度警惕。一个正在厄瓜多尔开发大型铜矿项目的中资企业联盟本周表示，将暂缓推进该项目，理由是当地政治局势“动荡”。中国与厄瓜多尔于2023年签署了自由贸易协定；当时厄瓜多尔官员曾暗示，他们更希望与美国签署协议。

“It is normal and understandable that some Chinese companies might halt their investments after such a sudden geopolitical event,” said Cui Shoujun, director of the Research Center for Latin American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, referring to Mr. Maduro’s capture.

“中国企业在如此突发的地缘政治事件之后暂停投资，是正常且可以理解的，”中国人民大学拉丁美洲研究中心主任崔守军说，他指的是马杜罗被捕一事。

Analysts said many governments would most likely turn to the United States if given an option to engage more deeply.

分析人士表示，如果存在选择空间，许多拉美国家很可能会转向与美国更深入地合作。

But they need funding for developmental needs that the United States, under Mr. Trump, may not be ready to address.

但这些国家的发展需求急需资金支持，而特朗普领导下的美国未必愿意提供。

“Is the U.S. just worried about the defensive element of competition with China or is the U.S. going to deliver a credible offensive play?” asked Henrietta Levin, senior fellow for the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“美国只是担心与中国竞争中的防御因素，还是会拿出切实有效的进攻方案？”华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心弗里曼中国研究讲席高级研究员李文(Henrietta Levin)问道。

“China has established such a powerful position within the economic status quo that it will be challenging for the administration to counter all of it in an effective way,” Ms. Levin said. She said the United States would need to offer a large and comprehensive aid program like the Marshall Plan, which helped to rebuild Europe after World War II.

她表示：“中国已经在既有的经济格局中建立了如此强大的地位，政府很难有效地全面反制。”她认为，美国需要提供类似二战后重建欧洲的马歇尔计划那样大规模的综合援助方案。

Several big Latin American countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Colombia, have denounced Mr. Trump’s actions in Venezuela, something that Mr. Cui, the Chinese professor, said could strengthen China’s ties with these countries.

包括巴西、墨西哥、智利和哥伦比亚在内，多个拉美大国已公开谴责特朗普在委内瑞拉的行动。崔守军认为，这可能会加强中国与这些国家的关系。

Besides, Mr. Cui added, it is impossible for China and Latin America to walk away from each other. “Who will Latin America sell its soybeans and corn to?”

此外，他还说，中国与拉丁美洲不可能彼此脱钩。“拉美的大豆和玉米要卖给谁呢？”

Antigovernment protests in Iran grew in size and violence in the last few days as security forces cracked down on demonstrations that began over economic woes two weeks ago and have broadened into a mass movement challenging Iran’s authoritarian clerical rulers.

伊朗反政府抗议活动在过去几天规模持续扩大，暴力冲突升级。此次抗议始于两周前，最初因经济困境引发，现已演变为挑战伊朗威权神职统治的大规模运动，安全部队正对示威者实施镇压。

As of Sunday, some human rights monitors said nearly 200 people, and possibly many more, had been killed since the protests began in late December. The number, a spike over estimates in recent days, suggests the increasingly violent nature of confrontations between protesters and security forces. But restrictions on the internet and international communications have made independent assessments difficult, human rights groups have said.

截至周日，一些人权观察机构称，自12月底抗议爆发以来，已有近200人丧生，实际数字可能更多。这一数字较近期估计大幅上升，反映出抗议者与安全部队之间的冲突日趋暴力。但人权组织表示，由于互联网和国际通讯受到限制，使得独立评估难以进行。

The government has tried to acknowledge the economic difficulties while at the same time cracking down on demonstrators and seeking to blame external forces for fomenting unrest. Iran’s president, in an interview with state television on Saturday, promised to address economic grievances but warned that the state also had a “duty” not to allow the country to be destabilized.

伊朗政府一方面试图承认存在经济困难，另一方面则对抗议者采取镇压措施，并试图将动乱归咎于外部势力。伊朗总统周六在接受国家电视台采访时承诺解决民众的经济诉求，但同时警告称，政府有“责任”不让国家陷入动荡。

The authorities have threatened to exact tough measures against protesters and to retaliate if there is international interference. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Friday that the government would “not back down” and called the protesters vandals who were trying to “please” President Trump.

当局威胁将对抗议者采取严厉措施，并警告若有国际干预将予以反击。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊周五表示，政府“不会退缩”，并称抗议者是试图“取悦”特朗普总统的破坏者。

Mr. Trump has pledged that the United States would come to the aid of protesters if the government used lethal force against them, and he is considering possible options. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Saturday. “The USA stands ready to help!!!”

特朗普已承诺，若伊朗政府对抗议者使用致命武力，美国将对抗议者提供援助，且目前正在考虑相关可行方案。“伊朗正迎来前所未有的自由曙光，”特朗普周六在社交媒体上写道。“美国已准备好提供援助！！！”

Why are Iranians protesting?

伊朗人为何抗议？

Iran’s economy has been under sustained pressure for years, largely as a result of U.S. and European sanctions tied to its nuclear ambitions. A 12-day war with Israel last June, which the United States joined to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, further drained the country’s financial resources.

多年来，伊朗经济一直持续承受压力，这主要是由于美国和欧洲针对其核计划实施的制裁。去年6月，伊朗与以色列爆发了一场持续12天的战争，美国参与轰炸了伊朗核设施，进一步耗尽了伊朗的财政资源。

When the currency plunged against the U.S. dollar in late December, amid persistently high inflation, merchants and university students staged days of protests.

12月底，在通胀居高不下的背景下，伊朗货币兑美元汇率暴跌，商人与大学生随即发起了连日抗议。

But as the rallies grew, the protests became a broader criticism of the rule of Iran’s theocratic government. Across social media and television, protesters were seen chanting slogans including, “Death to the dictator” and “Iranians, raise your voice, shout out for your rights.”

随着集会规模扩大，抗议活动逐渐演变为对伊朗神权政府统治的广泛批评。社交媒体和电视画面显示，抗议者高呼“独裁者去死”、“伊朗人，发出声音，为权利呐喊”等口号。

How intense are these protests?

抗议活动有多激烈？

Demonstrations have spread to dozens of cities across Iran, according to tracking by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.

据美国战争研究所追踪，抗议活动已蔓延至伊朗数十座城市。

On Saturday, HRANA, a U.S.-based Iranian human rights monitor, reported that there were more than 570 protests in 185 cities across all 31 provinces of the country, and more than 2,600 arrests.

周六，总部位于美国的伊朗人权组织HRANA报告称，伊朗31个省份的185座城市共爆发了570多场抗议活动，超过2600人被捕。

On Friday, videos posted on BBC Persian television showed thousands of people marching in Tehran, drawing supporters from what residents said in interviews was a cross-section of working-class, middle-class and wealthy neighborhoods.

周五，BBC波斯语频道发布的视频显示，数以千计的人在德黑兰游行，民众在采访中表示，参与者来自工人阶级、中产阶级和富裕社区等各个社会阶层。

Videos verified by The New York Times showed armed men firing weapons along empty streets in two Iranian cities on Friday and Saturday, in an apparent effort to intimidate residents and would-be protesters.

经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，周五和周六，武装人员在伊朗两座城市的空旷街道上开枪，显然是为了恐吓居民和潜在抗议者。

As of Sunday, at least 192 people had been killed in the protests, according to Iran Human Rights, a nonprofit monitor based in Norway.

总部位于挪威的非营利组织“伊朗人权”称，截至周日，至少192人在抗议活动中遇难。

Iran’s chief of police, Brig. Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, blamed the deaths and injuries on “unpaid soldiers of Iran’s enemies,” including the United States and Israel, saying that actions “were not carried out by security forces, but by trained and directed elements.”

伊朗警察总长艾哈迈德礼萨·拉丹准将将伤亡事件归咎于“伊朗敌人的雇佣军”，这些敌人包括美国和以色列。他表示，这些行为“并非安全部队所为，而是由受过训练和指使的势力实施”。

Amir Reza, 42, an engineer, said in an interview from Tehran on Friday that he could hear gunfire and had decided to go home after riot police officers and militias in plainclothes began firing in the air and chasing crowds to disperse them.

42岁的工程师阿米尔·礼萨周五在德黑兰接受采访时表示，他听到了枪声，在防暴警察和便衣民兵开始鸣枪示警并驱散人群后，他决定回家。

A video on Friday verified by The New York Times showed at least seven people lying motionless on the floor of Al-Ghadir Hospital in Tehran, apparently dead.

《纽约时报》周五核实的一段视频显示，德黑兰的阿勒加迪尔医院地板上至少有七人一动不动，显然已死亡。

伊朗国家媒体发布的一张照片显示，12月29日德黑兰发生抗议活动。

How has Iran’s government responded?

伊朗政府如何回应？

The government initially signaled a willingness to listen to protesters’ demands. Earlier this month, it announced plans to provide most citizens with a monthly payment equivalent to around $7.

政府最初曾表示愿意听取抗议者的诉求。本月早些时候，伊朗宣布计划向大多数公民每月发放约七美元的补贴。

President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged what he called the public’s “legitimate” grievances. He quickly appointed a new head of the central bank and urged against “any violent and coercive behavior.”

总统佩泽希齐扬承认民众存在“正当的”诉求。他迅速任命了新的中央银行行长，并敦促避免“任何暴力和胁迫行为”。

Yet Iranian officials have hardened their stance in recent days, echoing previous rounds of unrest when the authorities used mass arrests and violence to suppress demonstrations.

然而，伊朗官员近期立场趋于强硬，这与此前几轮动乱期间当局通过大规模逮捕和暴力手段镇压抗议的做法如出一辙。

Mohammad Movahedi Azad, Iran’s prosecutor general, warned on Saturday in comments carried by Iranian state media that legal proceedings against rioters should be “without leniency, mercy or appeasement.” He warned that “all criminals involved” would be considered an “enemy of God,” a capital offense.

伊朗总检察长穆罕默德·穆瓦赫迪·阿扎德周六透过伊朗官方媒体警告称，针对暴乱者的法律诉讼应当“毫不留情、绝不仁慈、绝不姑息”。他还警告，所有涉案罪犯都将被视为“真主之敌”，这一罪名可被判处死刑。

What has been the international reaction?

国际社会有何反应？

Iran’s government is weakened on the international stage and dealing with the gnawing fear of another round of U.S. or Israeli military strikes. Threats from President Trump have been especially resonant in light of the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, earlier this month.

伊朗政府在国际舞台上地位削弱，同时还担忧美国或以色列可能发动新一轮军事打击。鉴于本月早些时候美国抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，特朗普的威胁尤其引发关注。

Mr. Trump has said that the United States is “locked and loaded and ready to go” if the Iranian government used lethal force against demonstrators, and he has been briefed on potential military strikes, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter, but as of Sunday Mr. Trump had not said publicly if he’d made a final decision on whether to follow through on his threat.

据知情美国官员透露，特朗普表示，若伊朗政府对抗议者使用致命武力，美国将“严阵以待，随时准备行动”，且已听取有关潜在军事打击的简报，但截至周日，特朗普尚未公开表示是否已就兑现威胁做出最终决定。

Democratic and Republican lawmakers on Sunday expressed wariness about American interference in Iran, however.

不过，周日，美国民主党和共和党议员均对美国干预伊朗事务表示担忧。

Iranian officials said that they would react forcefully to an intervention. “If the United States takes military action, both the occupied territories and U.S. military and shipping lanes will be our legitimate targets,” Mohammed Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of Parliament, said in a statement on Sunday, according to Iran’s semiofficial news agency, Tasnim. Both U.S. and Israeli military bases could be targets, he added.

伊朗官员表示，将对任何干预行为做出强力回应。“如果美国采取军事行动，被占领土以及美国军事基地和航道都将成为我们的合法目标，”据伊朗半官方通讯社塔斯尼姆报道，伊朗议长穆罕默德·加利巴夫周日在声明中表示。他还称，美国和以色列的军事基地都可能成为打击目标。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said on Sunday that Israel was “closely monitoring” the protests and expressed support for the demonstrators. Israel’s army said it was “prepared defensively” for any attack.

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周日表示，以色列正“密切监控”伊朗抗议活动，并对抗议者表示支持。以色列军方称已做好“防御准备”，应对任何袭击。

The unrest has also brought some attention back to Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah of Iran, who lives in exile in the United States. In a video on Saturday, he urged Iranians to attend evening protests over the weekend and called on workers in key sectors like oil and gas to go on strike.

这场动乱也让流亡美国的伊朗前国王之子礼萨·巴列维重新受到关注。周六，他在一段视频中敦促伊朗人周末参加夜间抗议，并呼吁石油和天然气等关键行业的工人罢工。

Footage from Jan. 9 that was verified by The New York Times showed a crowd of demonstrators gathered in Punak, Tehran, chanting: “This is the final battle. Pahlavi will return.” But some experts question the extent of support for Mr. Pahlavi in Iran.

经《纽约时报》核实的1月9日画面显示，德黑兰的普纳克地区聚集了一群抗议者，他们高呼：“这是最终决战，巴列维将归来。”但部分专家对巴列维在伊朗国内的受支持程度表示质疑。

In early November, a ship carrying six tons of Hokkaido scallops slipped out of a northern Japanese port, bound for China. The shipment was meant to be a milestone, a sign of warming ties between the countries after Beijing lifted a yearslong ban on Japanese seafood.

11月初，一艘载有六吨北海道扇贝的船只从日本北部港口悄然出发，驶往中国。这批货物本应是一个里程碑，标志着北京解除对日本海产品长达数年的禁令后两国关系回暖。

But midway through the vessel’s journey, tensions flared again when Japan’s prime minister signaled a willingness to defend Taiwan against China. Her comment drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing and an announcement that the seafood ban was back on.

但就在这艘船航行途中，日本首相表示在台湾遭中国攻击时愿意出手防卫，此言一出，紧张局势再度升级。北京严厉斥责其言论，并宣布海产品禁令重新生效。

The Hokkaido scallop has emerged as an unlikely pawn in the volatile relationship between Tokyo and Beijing.

北海道扇贝已成为东京与北京之间动荡关系中一枚意想不到的棋子。

For Beijing, scallops have served as a diplomatic pressure point. For Japan’s allies, consuming them is portrayed as an act of defiance against what they characterize as economic coercion. For Tokyo, the mollusks have become a case study in the difficult — and perhaps increasingly necessary — task of curbing its reliance on China.

对北京而言，扇贝已成为外交施压的工具。对于日本的盟友来说，食用这些扇贝成了对他们所称的经济胁迫的一种反抗。对于东京来说，这些贝类已成为一个案例研究，说明减少对中国的依赖是多么困难——但或许又越来越必要。

In Hokkaido, the country’s northernmost island, where most Japanese scallops are harvested, the prevailing sentiment is confusion.

在日本最北端的岛屿、大多数日本扇贝的产地北海道，普遍的情绪是困惑。

“We’re being used as some kind of tool in political maneuvering,” said Mitsugu Saito, executive managing director of the group that represents Hokkaido’s seafood-processing industry. “I never would have thought that Japanese seafood products, especially scallops, would become a card in diplomatic negotiations.”

“我们被当作政治操纵的工具，”一个代表北海道海产品加工行业的团体的执行董事斋藤光（音）说。“我从未想过日本海产品——尤其是扇贝——会成为外交谈判中的一张牌。”

As China has emerged as a global economic power, its 1.4 billion citizens have become critical consumers of international goods. Beijing has dangled market access to its growing middle class as a diplomatic lever, imposing import restrictions for Taiwanese pineapples, Australian wine, American soybeans and Lithuanian beef in recent years.

随着中国崛起为全球经济大国，其14亿公民已成为国际商品的关键消费者。北京将进入其不断壮大的中产阶级市场的机会作为外交杠杆，近年来对台湾菠萝、澳大利亚葡萄酒、美国大豆和立陶宛牛肉实施进口限制。

札幌市中央批发市场是扇贝销售的主要枢纽。在禁令实施前，中国是日本最大的海产品买家，其中扇贝占据了大部分贸易额。

The latest trade spat between Japan and China began in August 2023, when Beijing suspended imports of Japanese seafood after the release of treated wastewater from the decommissioned Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. While Japanese officials and U.N. regulators defended the move — noting the water was filtered and heavily diluted — Beijing protested.

日本与中国最新的贸易争端始于2023年8月，当时北京在福岛第一核电站处理废水排放后暂停进口日本海产品。尽管日本官员和联合国监管机构为排水进行了辩护，称水经过过滤并大幅稀释，北京仍提出了抗议。

Before the freeze, China was the top buyer of Japanese seafood, with scallops accounting for most of that trade. Hokkaido’s scallops, harvested from the region’s nutrient-rich, frigid waters, are prized for a distinct buttery flavor and deep umami. They command a premium in China, where they have become a staple luxury at high-end celebratory banquets.

在禁令实施之前，中国是日本海产品的最大买家，其中扇贝占了贸易的大部分。北海道扇贝产自该地区营养丰富、冰冷的水域，以独特的醇厚风味和浓郁的鲜味备受推崇。在中国，它们成为高端庆典宴席上的主流奢侈品，售价不菲。

Japan had also shipped scallops to China for processing before re-exporting them.

日本还将扇贝运往中国加工后再出口。

The disruption was immediate. In 2022, the year before the halt, Japan exported roughly $641 million worth of scallops, with China accounting for more than half of all sales. Scallop exports plunged 30 percent in 2023 from a combination of China’s trade ban and a fallow period of production.

中断的影响立竿见影。2022年，即禁令前一年，日本出口了约44.7亿元人民币的扇贝，中国占据其过半销售额。由于中国的贸易禁令和生产休整期，2023年扇贝出口量下降了30%。

At Kyuichi, a scallop processing company in Hokkaido, China-bound products once accounted for a quarter of total sales. Shipments ground to a halt overnight. Tatsuhiko Etori, the company’s president, said he had never imagined the mollusk would become a diplomatic point of contention when his Osaka-based firm acquired Kyuichi in 2022, a year before the import ban.

在北海道的一家扇贝加工公司Kyuichi，对华产品一度占总销售额的四分之一。发货一夜之间停止。公司总裁饵取达彦表示，当他的大阪公司于2022年收购Kyuichi时——禁令前一年——他从未想象过这种贝类会成为外交争端的焦点。

“It was entirely unfathomable,” he said.

“这完全不可思议，”他说。

北海道扇贝加工公司Kyuichi的对华出口曾占其总销售额的四分之一，直到发货突然中断。正在加工的扇贝。Kyuichi的一系列扇贝和海鲜产品。

As China pulled away, Japanese allies rallied. Rahm Emanuel, then the U.S. ambassador to Japan, coordinated bulk purchases for the American military and championed the “#Taberuze Nippon!” (Let’s Eat, Japan!) movement, framing the consumption of Hokkaido scallops as a patriotic act of defiance against China.

随着中国退出，日本的盟友纷纷响应。当时的美国驻日本大使拉姆·埃马纽埃尔协调美国军方批量采购，并推动“#Taberuze Nippon！”（吃吧，日本！）运动，将消费北海道扇贝形容为反抗中国的爱国行为。

In Hokkaido, producers began moving scallop-processing operations to Vietnam and other parts of Southeast Asia. They also exported directly to the United States whenever possible. In 2024, the American share of Japan’s scallop exports grew to 28 percent, from single digits before.

在北海道，生产商开始将扇贝加工业务转移到越南和东南亚其他地区。他们还尽可能直接出口到美国。2024年，美国在日本扇贝出口中的份额从之前的个位数增长到28%。

This past year, the geopolitical winds shifted yet again.

过去一年，地缘政治风向再度转变。

In April, the Trump administration announced a wave of “reciprocal” tariffs targeting U.S. trade partners, including Japan and its scallops. Sensing an opening to court regional allies, Beijing announced in May that it would lift its ban on Japanese seafood exports that had undergone testing for radioactive materials.

4月，特朗普政府宣布针对美国贸易伙伴的一波“对等”关税，包括日本及其扇贝。北京察觉到拉拢地区盟友的机会，于5月宣布解除对经过放射性物质检测的日本海产品出口的禁令。

Kyuichi joined nearly 700 Japanese firms scrambling for certification, and on Nov. 5, the milestone shipment of six tons of frozen scallops departed Hokkaido for China.

Kyuichi加入了近700家争相获得认证的日本企业行列，11月5日，六吨冷冻扇贝从北海道出发前往中国，开启一段里程碑式的航程。

在北海道，工厂正在适应变化：Kyuichi已将扇贝加工流程收回国内，其他公司则转向政府补贴的自动化去壳设备，取代此前在中国由人工完成的劳动。Kyuichi是近700家争取获得认证的日本企业之一。11月5日，该公司从北海道向中国运送了六吨冷冻扇贝。

Two days after trade resumed, Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, stated in the National Diet that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be a “survival-threatening situation,” a legal trigger implying Japan could use military force. It was a rare public declaration regarding an island that Beijing considers a breakaway province.

贸易恢复两天后，日本首相高市早苗在国会表示，中国攻击台湾可能构成“存亡危机事态”，这是法律触发条款，暗示日本可能动用武力。这是针对这座北京视为分裂省份的岛屿发出的一次罕见的公开声明。

Within two weeks, Beijing abruptly froze all new seafood export applications. For Kyuichi and hundreds of other firms still in the registration queue, the window slammed shut.

两周内，北京突然冻结所有新的海产品出口申请。对于Kyuichi和数百家仍在注册队列中的其他公司，这扇窗口猛地关上了。

“Everyone was waiting to see what would happen, and then the ban hit,” Mr. Etori of Kyuichi said. “To be honest, I felt, ‘Oh, here we go again.’”

“大家都在等待观察会发生什么，然后禁令就来了，”Kyuichi的饵取说。“老实说，我感觉‘哎呀，又来了’。”

China experts say targeting scallops is a logical move in Beijing’s playbook. Given its own domestic economic challenges, Beijing is wary of more drastic measures that could endanger broader commercial ties with Tokyo, according to Shin Kawashima, a professor of Asian politics and diplomacy at the University of Tokyo.

中国问题专家表示，在北京的策略中，针对扇贝是一个合乎逻辑的举动。东京大学亚洲政治与外交教授川岛真表示，鉴于自身国内经济挑战，北京对可能危及与东京更广泛商业关系的更激烈措施持谨慎态度。

The seafood ban, coupled with recent advisories urging Chinese tourists to reconsider travel to Japan, is an effort to “irritate Japan” without triggering a full-scale diplomatic rupture. For China, “it keeps its line there to protect its economy,” Mr. Kawashima said. “But for Japanese scallop producers, I can understand why it’s like, ‘Why us?’”

海产品禁令以及最近敦促中国游客重新考虑前往日本的建议意在“激怒日本”，但又不会引发全面外交破裂。对于中国，这样做“是为了捍卫本国的经济利益”，川岛说。“但对于日本扇贝生产商，我能理解为什么他们会想，‘为什么是我们？’”

Now, Japanese allies are again rallying to the cause.

现在，日本的盟友再次纷纷伸出援手。

On Dec. 2 — the day Japanese and Chinese coast guard vessels engaged in a tense standoff in the East China Sea — the U.S. ambassador to Japan, George Glass, posted on social media that “Americans can’t get enough of scallops” and included a flag of Japan. In Taipei, President Lai Ching-te shared photos of himself dining on Japanese sushi. Featured prominently in the spread: Hokkaido scallops.

12月2日——当天日本和中国海岸警卫队舰艇在东海发生紧张对峙——美国驻日本大使乔治·格拉斯在社交媒体上发帖称“美国人对扇贝欲罢不能”，并附上日本国旗。在台北，总统赖清德分享了自己享用日本寿司的照片。宴席上醒目地摆放着：北海道扇贝。

Mr. Saito of the Hokkaido seafood group said that while the industry was “definitely shaken up” in 2023, the latest ban had not stung as much after two years of forced diversification. Businesses, he said, are adapting as the situation lingers.

北海道海产品团体的斋藤表示，虽然该行业在2023年“肯定受到了震动”，但经过两年强行推动的多元化后，最新的禁令没有那么刺痛了。他表示，企业正在适应局势的持续。

In Hokkaido, changes are visible on factory floors. Kyuichi has repatriated part of the scallop processing process that was once outsourced. Other companies have begun using government-subsidized automated shucking machines to replace the manual labor previously performed in China.

在北海道，工厂车间的变化显而易见。Kyuichi已将曾经外包的部分扇贝加工流程收回国内。其他公司开始使用政府补贴的自动化去壳机器，取代此前在中国由人工完成的劳动。

Ayumu Katano, chief executive of the fisheries consultancy Fisk Japan, views the 2023 “China shock” as a necessary corrective. “Because the China route vanished, markets diversified,” he said, noting that Japanese firms now have higher margins after cutting out middlemen processors in China.

渔业咨询公司Fisk Japan的首席执行官片野步认为，2023年的“中国冲击”是一个必要的矫正。“因为中国渠道消失了，市场实现了多元化，”他说，并指出日本企业在去掉中国中间加工商后利润更高了。

With trade policies in the world’s two largest economies shifting — from U.S. tariffs to Beijing’s import bans — Mr. Katano is urging more seafood businesses to put in place safety standards required for them to sell in the European Union.

随着世界两大经济体的贸易政策发生变化——从美国的关税到北京的进口禁令——片野敦促更多海产品企业落实进入欧盟所需的安全标准。

“The most important thing is not to rely on a single market,” Mr. Katano said.

“最重要的是不要依赖单一市场，”片野说。

At Kyuichi, the Hokkaido-based processor, Mr. Etori said the company would not be quick to make a significant pivot back to China, even if the ban was lifted again.

北海道加工商Kyuichi的饵取达彦表示，即使禁令再次解除，公司也不会急于大幅转向中国。

在北京的策略中，针对扇贝是一个合乎逻辑的举动。

“There’s the saying, ‘What happens once can happen twice,’” he said. “Well, it happened twice. It could happen a third time.”

“有句谚语，‘有一就有二’，”他说。“嗯，已经发生了两次。可能会有第三次。”

Still, even as Mr. Etori builds a business model designed to bypass Beijing, he wonders whether the doors will eventually swing back open.

尽管如此，即使饵取达彦正在构建一种绕过北京的商业模式，他仍好奇大门是否最终会重新打开。

“Hokkaido scallops and China are perhaps inseparable,” he said, citing a demand he believes could ultimately transcend politics. “They have originality. They are sweet and delicious — something that everyone finds tasty.”

“北海道扇贝和中国或许是密不可分的，”他说，并提到一种他相信最终能超越政治的需求。“它们独具特色。甜美而美味——人人都会觉得好吃。”

President Trump declared on Wednesday evening that his power as commander in chief is constrained only by his “own morality,” brushing aside international law and other checks on his ability to use military might to strike, invade or coerce nations around the world.

周三晚间，特朗普总统宣称，作为三军统帅，他的权力仅受“自己的道德”限制，全然无视国际法以及其他约束他对全球各国动用军事力量、实施入侵或胁迫行为的制衡机制。

Asked in a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times if there were any limits on his global powers, Mr. Trump said: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”

在《纽约时报》的一场涉及诸多话题的访谈中，当被问及他的全球权力是否存在任何限制，特朗普表示：“有，只有一样东西——我自己的道德，我自己的判断。这是唯一能阻止我的东西。”

“I don’t need international law,” he added. “I’m not looking to hurt people.”

“我不需要国际法，”他还说。“我无意伤害他人。”

When pressed further about whether his administration needed to abide by international law, Mr. Trump said, “I do.” But he made clear he would be the arbiter when such constraints applied to the United States.

当被进一步追问其政府是否需要遵守国际法时，特朗普称：“我遵守。”但他明确表示，当此类约束适用于美国时，他将是最终的仲裁者。

“It depends what your definition of international law is,” he said.

“这取决于你对国际法的定义，”他说。

Mr. Trump’s assessment of his own freedom to use any instrument of military, economic or political power to cement American supremacy was the most blunt acknowledgment yet of his worldview. At its core is the concept that national strength, rather than laws, treaties and conventions, should be the deciding factor as powers collide.

特朗普对自身运用军事、经济或政治手段巩固美国霸权自由度的评估是他迄今最直接的价值观表白。其核心理念是，在大国博弈中，决定性因素应该是国家实力，而不是法律、条约和公约。

He did acknowledge some constraints at home, even as he has pursued a maximalist strategy of punishing institutions he dislikes, exacting retribution against political opponents and deploying the National Guard to cities over the objections of state and local officials.

他承认国内存在某些制约因素，尽管他推行了强硬策略：惩罚自己不喜欢的机构、报复政治对手、不顾州和地方官员的反对向城市部署国民警卫队。

He made clear that he uses his reputation for unpredictability and a willingness to resort quickly to military action, often in service of coercing other nations. During his interview with The Times, he took a lengthy call from President Gustavo Petro of Colombia, who was clearly concerned after repeated threats that Mr. Trump was thinking of an attack on the country similar to the one on Venezuela.

他明确表示，他利用自己行事难以预测的名声和迅速诉诸军事行动的意愿，通常是用来胁迫其他国家。在接受《纽约时报》采访期间，他接听了哥伦比亚总统佩特罗的长时间来电。此前特朗普多次威胁可能对哥伦比亚发动类似在委内瑞拉的袭击，佩特罗对此显然忧心忡忡。

“Well, we are in danger,” Mr. Petro said in an interview with The Times just before the call. “Because the threat is real. It was made by Trump.”

“我们正处于危险之中，”佩特罗在通话前接受《纽约时报》采访时说。“因为威胁是真实存在的，是特朗普发出的。”

The call between the two leaders, the contents of which were off the record, was an example of coercive diplomacy in action. And it came just hours after Mr. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had extracted the United States from dozens of international organizations intended to foster multinational cooperation.

这次内容未公开的领导人通话正是胁迫外交的实际案例。而就在几小时前，特朗普和国务卿鲁比奥刚刚宣布，美国退出数十个旨在促进多国合作的国际组织。

In his conversation with The Times, Mr. Trump sounded more emboldened than ever. He cited the success of his strike on Iran’s nuclear program — he keeps a model of the B-2 bombers used in the mission on his desk; the speed with which he decapitated the Venezuelan government last weekend; and his designs on Greenland, which is controlled by Denmark, a NATO ally.

在接受《纽约时报》采访时，特朗普显得比以往任何时候都更加大胆。他列举了打击伊朗核计划的成功——他的办公桌上摆放着执行该任务的B-2轰炸机模型、上周末迅速推翻委内瑞拉政府的行动，以及对北约盟国丹麦控制的格陵兰岛的图谋。

When asked what was his higher priority, obtaining Greenland or preserving NATO, Mr. Trump declined to answer directly, but acknowledged “it may be a choice.” He made clear that the trans-Atlantic alliance was essentially useless without the United States at its core.

当被问及获取格陵兰岛和维护北约哪个优先级更高时，特朗普拒绝直接回答，但承认“这可能要做选择”。他明确表示，若没有美国作为核心，这个跨大西洋联盟基本上毫无用处。

Even as he characterized the norms of the post-World War II order as unnecessary burdens on a superpower, Mr. Trump was dismissive of the idea that the leader of China, Xi Jinping, or President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could use similar logic to the detriment of the United States. On topic after topic, he made clear that in his mind, U.S. power is the determining factor — and that previous presidents have been too cautious to make use of it for political supremacy or national profit.

尽管他将二战后国际秩序的规范描述为超级大国不必要的负担，但特朗普对中国领导人习近平或俄罗斯总统普京可能会用类似逻辑损害美国利益的观点不屑一顾。在一个又一个话题上，他明确表示，在他看来，美国的实力才是决定性因素——而过往的总统们过于谨慎，未能将其用于政治霸权或国家利益。

The president’s insistence that Greenland must become part of the United States was a prime example of his worldview. It was not enough to exercise the U.S. right, under a 1951 treaty, to reopen long-closed military bases on the huge landmass, which is a strategically important crossroads for U.S., European, Chinese and Russian naval operations.

总统坚持认为格陵兰岛必须成为美国的一部分，这是他世界观的典型例证。根据1951年的一项条约，美国有权在这片战略要地（美国、欧洲、中国和俄罗斯海军行动的交汇点）重新开放长期关闭的军事基地，但这对他来说还不够。

总统坚持认为格陵兰岛必须成为美国领土，这充分体现了他的世界观。

“Ownership is very important,” Mr. Trump said as he discussed, with a real estate mogul’s eye, the landmass of Greenland — three times the size of Texas but with a population of less than 60,000. He seemed to dismiss the value of having Greenland under the control of a close NATO ally.

“所有权非常重要，”特朗普以房地产大亨的眼光审视格陵兰岛时宣称。格陵兰岛面积是得克萨斯州的三倍，但人口不足6万。他似乎不屑于让格陵兰岛处于北约亲密盟友的控制之下。

When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success. I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do with, you’re talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.”

当被问及为何需要拥有这片领土时，他说：“因为我认为这是心理层面上取得成功的必要条件。我认为，所有权能带来的东西是你无法通过租赁或条约获得的。所有权能给你带来只靠签署文件无法获得的实质要素。”

The conversation made clear that in Mr. Trump’s view, sovereignty and national borders are less important than the singular role the United States plays as the protector of the West.

这次访谈表明，在特朗普看来，主权和国家边界的重要性不及美国作为西方守护者所扮演的独特角色。

He argued that only he — and not two predecessors on whom he heaped scorn, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Barack Obama — had proved capable of persuading NATO nations to spend 5 percent of the gross domestic product on defense. (About 1.5 percent of that is actually for domestic infrastructure — from power grids to cybersecurity — that can support defense. The target does not kick in until 2035, six years after Mr. Trump leaves office.)

他声称，事实证明，唯有他本人——而非他极尽嘲讽的前任拜登和奥巴马——有能力说服北约国家将国内生产总值的5%用于国防开支。（其中约1.5%实际用于支持国防的国内基础设施建设——从电网到网络安全。该目标到2035年才生效，即特朗普离任六年后。）

“I want them to shape up,” he said. “I think we’ll always get along with Europe, but I want them to shape up. I’m the one that got them to spend more on the, you know, more G.D.P. on NATO. But if you look at NATO, Russia I can tell you is not at all concerned with any other country but us.”

“我希望他们振作起来，”他说。“我认为我们会和欧洲永远和睦，但我希望他们振作起来。是我让他们在北约投入了更多的GDP。但如果你看看北约，我可以告诉你，俄罗斯眼里只有我们，根本不关心其他国家。”

The president added: “I’ve been very loyal to Europe. I’ve done a good job. If it weren’t for me, Russia would have all of Ukraine right now.”

总统还说：“我一直对欧洲非常忠诚。我做得很好。如果不是我，俄罗斯现在早就占领整个乌克兰了。”

上月，乌克兰士兵在顿巴斯地区向俄军阵地发射榴弹炮。

He seemed unconcerned that the last major nuclear arms control agreement with Russia was set to expire in four weeks, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear powers free to expand their arsenals without limit, for the first time in half a century.

他似乎并不担心与俄罗斯的最后一项主要核军备控制协议将在四周后到期，这将使世界上两个最大的核大国半个世纪以来首次可以不受限制地扩充核武库。

“If it expires, it expires,” he said. “We’ll just do a better agreement,” he added, insisting that China, which has the fastest-growing arsenal in the world, should be incorporated in any future agreement.

“到期就到期吧，”他说。“我们会达成更好的协议。”他坚持认为，拥有世界上增长最快核武库的中国应被纳入所有未来协议之中。

“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Mr. Trump said.

“你可能还想让其他几方也加入进来，”特朗普说。

The president seemed equally sanguine about whether his decision to send Special Operations forces into Caracas to remove Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela would be exploited by China or Russia. In the days since the action in Venezuela, there have been arguments that the U.S. precedent would help justify a Chinese effort to take Taiwan, or Russia’s attempt to seize Ukraine, which Mr. Putin has described as a historical part of the Russian empire, dating back more than a dozen centuries.

对于派遣特种部队进入加拉加斯推翻委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的决定可能被中国或俄罗斯利用的观点，总统显得同样不以为然。委内瑞拉行动后的几天里，有人认为美国开创的先例可能会为中国试图夺取台湾或俄罗斯试图占领乌克兰（普京称十几个世纪以来，该国在历史上一直是俄罗斯帝国的一部分）提供借口。

Asked whether he had created a precedent that he may later regret, Mr. Trump argued that his view of the threat posed by Mr. Maduro’s Venezuela was quite different than Mr. Xi’s view of Taiwan.

当被问及他是否开创了一个日后可能后悔的先例时，特朗普辩称，他对马杜罗领导的委内瑞拉构成的威胁的看法与习近平对台湾的看法截然不同。

“This was a real threat,” he said of Venezuela. “You didn’t have people pouring into China,” he argued, repeating his oft-made claim that Mr. Maduro dumped gang members into the United States.

“这是一个真正的威胁，”他在谈到委内瑞拉时说。“你不会看到有人涌入中国，”他重复了自己经常提出的说法，称马杜罗向美国大量输送帮派成员。

Mr. Trump added: “You didn’t have drugs pouring into China. You didn’t have all of the bad things that we’ve had. You didn’t have the jails of Taiwan opened up and the people pouring into China,” or, he said later, criminals and others “pouring into Russia.”

特朗普还说：“你不会看到毒品涌入中国，不会看到我们所经历的所有坏事。你不会看到台湾的监狱被打开，人们涌入中国。”他稍后又说，犯罪分子等群体“涌入俄罗斯”的情况也不存在。

When a reporter noted that Mr. Xi regarded Taiwan as a separatist threat to China, Mr. Trump said: “That’s up to him, what he’s going to be doing. But, you know, I’ve expressed to him that I would be very unhappy if he did that, and I don’t think he’ll do that. I hope he doesn’t.”

当记者指出习近平将台湾视为对中国的分裂主义威胁时，特朗普说：“这取决于他想做什么。但你知道，我已经向他表示，如果他那样做，我会非常不高兴，我认为他不会那样做。我希望他不会。”

Then, asked whether Mr. Xi might seize on recent events to attack or choke off Taiwan, he suggested that the Chinese leader would not dare to take that step while Mr. Trump was in office. “He may do it after we have a different president, but I don’t think he’s going to do it with me as president,” he said.

随后，当被问及习近平是否可能利用最近的事件对台湾发动攻击或实施封锁时，他表示，这位中国领导人在特朗普执政期间不敢采取这一步骤。“等我们换了总统以后他可能会这么做，但我认为在我担任总统期间他不会，”他说。

On Thursday, in a rare assertion of congressional authority over the president’s war powers, the Senate agreed to debate a resolution aimed at curbing Mr. Trump’s use of military force in Venezuela. Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, said one factor that may have tipped the vote was the president’s comment during Wednesday’s interview that the United States might remain involved in Venezuela for years.

周四，参议院罕见地主张国会对总统战争权力的监管权，同意就一项旨在限制特朗普在委内瑞拉使用军事力量的决议进行辩论。肯塔基州共和党参议员兰德·保罗表示，促使投票结果倾向于进行辩论的一个因素是总统在周三采访中提及美国可能在委内瑞拉保持多年介入。

On the domestic front, Mr. Trump suggested that judges only have power to restrict his domestic policy agenda — from the deployment of the National Guard to the imposition of tariffs — “under certain circumstances.”

在国内事务方面，特朗普暗示，法官只有在“特定情况下”才有权力限制他的国内政策议程——从部署国民警卫队到征收关税都是如此。

But he was already considering workarounds. He raised the possibility that if his tariffs issued under emergency authorities were struck down by the Supreme Court, he could repackage them as licensing fees. And Mr. Trump, who said he was elected to restore law and order, reiterated that he was willing to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy the military inside the United States and federalize some National Guard units if he felt it was important to do so.

但他已经在考虑变通办法。他提出，如果最高法院推翻他根据紧急权限发布的关税，他可以将其重新包装为许可费。特朗普曾表示自己当选是为了恢复法律和秩序，如今他重申，如果认为有必要，他愿意援引《叛乱法》在美国境内部署军队，并将部分国民警卫队部队联邦化。

So far, he said, “I haven’t really felt the need to do it.”

他说，到目前为止，“我还没有真正觉得有必要这么做。”

A man who U.S. federal prosecutors said ran one of the largest criminal networks in the world, relying on thousands of enslaved workers in Southeast Asia to bilk victims out of billions of dollars, has been arrested and extradited to China, Cambodian authorities announced on Wednesday.

柬埔寨当局周三宣布，一名被美国联邦检察官认为运营着世界最大犯罪网络之一的男子已被逮捕，并引渡至中国。检察官称此人通过东南亚数千名被奴役的工人从受害者手中骗取数十亿美元。

The man, Chen Zhi, 38, is a citizen of several countries, including China and Cambodia, though the Cambodian government said his passport has been revoked. He was arrested in Cambodia, where his company is based, and extradited to China on Tuesday, according to a news release from Cambodia’s ministry of the interior.

这名男子名为陈志，38岁，拥有包括中国和柬埔寨在内的多个国家公民身份，不过柬埔寨政府表示其护照已被吊销。根据柬埔寨内政部的新闻稿，他已在柬埔寨（其公司所在地）被捕，并于周二被引渡至中国。

Mr. Chen was the founder and chairman of the Prince Group, a Cambodian holding company that seemingly focused on luxury real estate. But in reality, federal prosecutors said, he used the company to mastermind an operation in which scammers persuaded unwitting victims to fork over their money, often via cryptocurrency.

陈志是柬埔寨控股公司王子集团的创始人和董事长，该公司表面上专注于奢侈房地产。但联邦检察官表示，实际上，他利用该公司策划诈骗行动，骗子们说服毫无戒心的受害者交出钱财，通常是以加密货币的形式。

Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of New York announced Mr. Chen’s indictment in October, while he was still at large, and said that they had seized Bitcoin worth about $15 billion — proceeds from his scheme, they said. One of the networks that worked with Mr. Chen, prosecutors said, targeted more than 250 victims in Brooklyn and Queens, who lost more than $18 million. Other victims were in Russia, Taiwan, Vietnam and other countries.

纽约东区联邦检察官在陈志仍在逃期间，于10月宣布了对他的起诉，并表示已扣押价值约150亿美元的比特币——他们称这些均系其犯罪所得。检察官表示，与陈志合作的一个网络针对布鲁克林和皇后区的250多名受害者实施诈骗，导致他们的损失超过1800万美元。其余受害者来自俄罗斯、台湾、越南及其他国家。

His extradition to China, which Cambodian authorities said followed months of cooperation between the two governments, complicates the chances that Mr. Chen will ever face justice in an American courtroom. The United States does not have an extradition agreement with China, an economic and geopolitical archrival.

他被引渡至中国——柬埔寨当局称这是两国政府数月合作的结果——使得陈志在美国法庭上接受审判的机会变得渺茫。美国与中国这个经济和地缘政治上的主要对手之间没有引渡协议。

A spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn declined to comment. Representatives for the Cambodia’s Ministry of Information and the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A lawyer for Mr. Chen, who also represents the Prince Group in civil litigation, did not respond to a request for comment.

布鲁克林美国检察官办公室的一位发言人拒绝置评。柬埔寨新闻部和中国外交部的代表未立即回应置评请求。陈志的律师（同时也代表王子集团处理民事诉讼）未回应置评请求。

The online scam industry has ballooned in recent years, with Americans losing $16 billion in such schemes in 2024, according to the F.B.I. At least $10 billion was lost to swindles originating in Southeast Asia, according to the Treasury Department.

网络诈骗行业近年来急剧膨胀，根据联邦调查局的数据，2024年美国人在此类诈骗中损失了160亿美元。根据财政部数据，其中至少100亿美元流向源于东南亚的诈骗集团。

A common element in the nefarious sector, which has targeted hundreds of thousands of people in Southeast Asia, is brutality. Criminal groups have preyed on poor migrants looking for job opportunities, trafficking them into compounds throughout the region in recent years, according to a 2024 report from the United States Institute for Peace, an independent nonprofit.

这个已经导致东南亚数十万人受骗的邪恶行业的一个常见特征是残暴。根据独立非营利组织美国和平研究所2024年的一份报告，犯罪团伙近年来诱骗寻求工作机会的贫困移民，将他们贩运到位于东南亚各地的园区。

Starting in 2015, according to federal prosecutors, Mr. Chen and his associates built their operation through forced-labor camps throughout Cambodia, guarded by high walls and barbed wire. They forced workers to carry out the scams at a blistering pace: A conspirator of Mr. Chen boasted that the Prince Group made more than $30 million per day from the schemes in 2018, according to the indictment.

根据联邦检察官的说法，从2015年开始，陈志及其同伙通过柬埔寨各地高墙和铁丝网包围的强迫劳动营建立起他们的生意。他们强迫工人以极快的速度实施诈骗：据起诉书显示，陈志的一名同谋曾经炫耀，王子集团在2018年从这些诈骗中每天赚取超过3000万美元。

Typically, the scammers would reach out to victims over social media platforms and develop a relationship, building a narrative that they were selling a lucrative investment opportunity or even seeking romance. Once the money was deposited, the scammers cut off contact with their victims.

通常，骗子会在社交媒体平台上联系受害者，建立关系，编造他们现在有一个利润丰厚的投资机会，甚至寻求建立恋情。一旦钱款存入，骗子就会切断与受害者的联系。

According to prosecutors, Mr. Chen kept detailed ledgers of the scams and how much money they made, labeling them as “Russian order fraud,” “Vietnamese loans” and “European and American market.”

根据检察官的说法，陈志保存了详细的诈骗账簿，记录了诈骗金额，并将它们标记为“俄罗斯订单诈骗”、“越南贷款”和“欧美市场”。

The illegal profits from the scheme, prosecutors said, were then laundered through a variety of sophisticated networks, including the Prince Group’s businesses in online gambling and crypto. Mr. Chen and his associates used the funds to buy luxury watches, private jets and even a Picasso painting through a New York auction house.

检察官表示，这些诈骗手段的非法利润随后通过各种复杂的网络进行洗钱，包括王子集团的在线赌博和加密货币业务。陈志及其同伙用这些资金购买奢侈手表、私人飞机，甚至通过纽约一家拍卖行购买了一幅毕加索画作。

On its website, the Prince Group says Mr. Chen had transformed the company into a “leading business group in Cambodia that adheres to international standard” that was “committed to sustainable business practices.”

王子集团在其网站上表示，陈志已将公司转变为“柬埔寨领先的商业集团，遵循国际标准”，并“致力于可持续商业实践”。