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中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

王月眉, JOY DONG

2024年6月25日

最近几天,广东梅州因暴雨造成的死亡人数急剧上升。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

At least 47 people have died in southern China’s Guangdong Province after torrential rains set off flooding and landslides, according to the Chinese authorities.

据中国有关部门称,在位于中国南部的广东省,暴雨引发洪水和山体滑坡已造成至少47人死亡。

The city of Meizhou, home to about 3.8 million people, began experiencing “once-in-a-century” rainfall last week, according to state media. On Monday, officials were still working to restore power and water to some residents, after they said on Sunday that around 9,000 households remained without electricity.

据官方媒体报道,人口约380万的梅州市上周遭遇“百年一遇”的强降雨。周一,官方仍在努力为一些受影响用户恢复水电供应,此前他们在周日表示,约9000户家庭仍然没有电。

Initially, officials reported that nine people in Meizhou had died. But on Friday afternoon, the death toll leaped dramatically, as officials reported an additional 38 deaths in Pingyuan, a county under Meizhou’s jurisdiction. Two more people there were still missing, they said, though no more information has been released.

最初,官方称梅州有9人死亡。但到周五下午,死亡人数急剧上升,官方报告梅州下辖的平远县新增38人死亡。他们说,还有两人下落不明,但没有公布更多信息。

More than 100,000 people were evacuated, state media said.

官方媒体称,超过10万人被疏散。

Meizhou has been hit hard by extreme weather this year. In May, 48 people died after a nearly 60-foot segment of an expressway there collapsed, also after days of heavy rain.

梅州今年数度遭遇极端天气。5月,在持续数天的暴雨后,当地一条高速公路近18米长的路段坍塌,造成48人死亡,

Flooding-related deaths have also been reported in the nearby provinces of Fujian, Guangxi and Hunan this month. On Monday in Changsha, the capital city of Hunan, the police rescued people trapped in waist-deep water near a major train station, official media said.

本月,临近省份福建、广西和湖南也报告了与洪水有关的死亡事件。官方媒体,周一,在湖南省会长沙,警方在一个主要火车站附近救出了被困在齐腰深水中的民众。

The whole country is bracing for a summer of potential weather-related disasters. Even as, southern China has been battered on and off by severe rain for months, provinces in the north have warned of drought. The capital city of Beijing last week was under a heat warning. And around the world, this year is on track to be the hottest in recorded history.

全国各地都在为夏季可能出现的气象灾害做准备。几个月来,中国南方经常遭受暴雨袭击,而北方则发出了干旱预警。首都北京上周发布高温预警。在全球范围内,今年有望成为有记录以来最热的一年

The Chinese authorities have warned that abnormally high amounts of rain are likely to continue falling until the end of the month, concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

中国有关部门警告称,异常降雨可能持续到本月底,主要集中在长江中下游地区。

24china floods 02 vgtq master10506月,梅州蕉岭县遭遇强降雨,石库河沿岸堤坝被淹,道路受损。24china floods 06 vgtq master10506月,梅州。暴风雨过后,人们正在清理洪水后的废墟。24china floods 04 vgtq master10506月,梅州蕉岭县一处因强降雨被淹的卫生院,工人们正在清理淤泥。24china floods 03 vgtq master10506月,梅州。暴风雨过后,街道泥泞不堪。24china floods 07 vgtq master10506月,梅州损毁的房屋。24china floods 08 vgtq master10506月,梅州蕉岭县涪陵村,工人正在清理淤泥。

PATRICK KINGSLEY

2024年6月25日

上周以色列南部加沙边境附近的以色列士兵。 Jack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Israel’s prime minister says the war in the Gaza Strip will soon enter a new phase.

以色列总理称,加沙地带的战争将很快进入一个新阶段。

“The intense stage of the war with Hamas is about to end,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a television interview on Sunday. “This does not mean that the war is about to end, but the war in its intense phase is about to end.”

“与哈马斯的激烈战争阶段即将结束,”以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周日接受电视采访时说。“这并不意味着战争即将结束,但战争的激烈阶段即将结束。”

But whatever relief those comments may bring after more than half a year of horrific bloodshed, Mr. Netanyahu quickly made two things clear: A cease-fire in Gaza is not at hand. And the next fight might be in Lebanon, with the forces of a Hamas ally, Hezbollah.

但是,经历了半年多的可怕流血事件之后,无论这些言论能多让人宽慰,内塔尼亚胡都迅速澄清了两件事:加沙停火还没有到来。下一场战斗可能是在黎巴嫩,与哈马斯的盟友真主党部队作战。

After drawing down troops in Gaza, he said, “We will be able to move part of our forces to the north.”

他说,从加沙撤军后,“我们就能把部分部队调往北部。”

Mr. Netanyahu stopped well short of announcing an invasion of Lebanon, a move that would likely result in heavy Israeli and Lebanese losses, and instead left open the door for a diplomatic resolution with Hezbollah.

内塔尼亚胡没有宣布入侵黎巴嫩——因为此举很可能导致以黎双方都损失惨重,而是与真主党达成外交解决方案留下了余地。

Any diplomatic resolution in Gaza remains uncertain, in part because Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition would likely collapse if Israel stopped fighting in Gaza without having removed Hamas from power.

关于加沙问题的任何外交解决方案仍然不确定,部分原因是,如果以色列未将哈马斯赶下台就停止在加沙的战斗,内塔尼亚胡的联盟可能会崩溃。

Still, the prime minister appeared to be signaling that Israel, after finishing its current military operation in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, will not seek to mount major ground invasions of cities in central Gaza, the only area of the territory where the Israeli military has not carried out such attacks.

不过,内塔尼亚胡似乎在暗示,以色列在完成目前对加沙最南端城市拉法的军事行动后,不会寻求对加沙中部城市发动大规模地面进攻,加沙中部是以色列军队在该地唯一没有发动过此类袭击的地区。

While Israeli leaders have said since January that they were transitioning to a lower-intensity war, the end of the Rafah operation might allow for the completion of that process.

虽然以色列领导人自1月以来一直表示,他们正在向强度较低的战争过渡,但拉法行动的结束可能才会促成这一进程的完成。

The remarks from Mr. Netanyahu, and recent comments by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was in Washington on Monday, indicated that the focus of Israel’s political discourse and strategic planning is shifting to its northern border with Lebanon.

内塔尼亚胡的讲话,以及周一身在华盛顿的以色列国防部长约亚夫·加兰特最近的讲话表明,以色列政治讨论和战略规划的重点正在转移到与黎巴嫩的北部边界。

In a statement on Monday, Mr. Gallant’s office said that he had discussed with American officials “the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including vis-à-vis Lebanon and other areas.”

在周一的声明中,加兰特的办公室表示,他与美国官员讨论了“加沙向‘C阶段’的过渡及其对该地区——包括黎巴嫩和其他地区的影响”。

Early in the war, Mr. Gallant outlined a three-phase battle plan that included intense airstrikes against Hamas targets and infrastructure; a period of ground operations aimed at “eliminating pockets of resistance”; and a third phase, or Phase C, that would create “a new security reality for the citizens of Israel.”

战争初期,加兰特概述了一个三阶段作战计划,其中包括对哈马斯目标和基础设施进行密集空袭;一段时间的地面行动,旨在“消除零星抵抗”;而第三阶段,即C阶段,将会“为以色列公民创造一种新的安全现实”。

24mideast crisis nextphase analysis wflm master1050一名真主党成员的葬礼,他在5月以色列对黎巴嫩发动的袭击中丧生。

Since October, Israel has been fighting a low-level conflict with Hezbollah that has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. But the fighting has been overshadowed by the larger war in Gaza.

自去年10月以来,以色列一直在与真主党进行低级别冲突,导致边界两侧数十万平民流离失所。但这场战斗被加沙更大规模的战争所掩盖。

The shift in rhetoric over the weekend could be the harbinger of a major escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

周末,双方言辞上的转变可能预示着真主党和以色列之间的关系将出现大幅升级。

Israeli officials have been warning for months that they may invade Lebanon if Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian-backed militia that dominates southern Lebanon, does not withdraw its forces from near its border. Hezbollah has also threatened to invade Israel.

以色列官员几个月来一直警告,如果控制黎巴嫩南部、得到伊朗支持的强大民兵组织真主党不从边界附近撤军,以色列可能会入侵黎巴嫩。真主党也威胁要入侵以色列。

But a diminution in the fighting in Gaza could also end up creating space for a de-escalation of the hostilities at the Lebanese border. Hezbollah joined the fight in October in solidarity with Hamas, and its leadership has indicated that it could wind down its campaign if the war in Gaza ebbs.

但是,加沙地带战事的减少也可能最终为黎巴嫩边境敌对行动的缓和创造空间。真主党于去年10月加入战斗,支持哈马斯。真主党领导层表示,如果加沙战争平息,真主党可能会逐步停止行动。

Here are four ways the shift in Israel’s stance in Gaza may play out.

以下是以色列在加沙立场转变的四种可能表现。

1. Raids in Gaza, but smaller ones

1. 袭击加沙,但规模较小

Once the Israeli campaign in Rafah ends in the coming weeks, the military is expected to focus on hostage-rescue operations across the Gaza Strip, like the one that rescued four Israelis in early June and killed scores of Palestinians.

一旦以色列在拉法的行动在未来几周内结束,军方预计将把重点放在加沙地带的人质救援行动上,就像6月初营救四名以色列人并杀死数十名巴勒斯坦人的行动。

Military officials also say they will continue to briefly raid neighborhoods they captured during earlier phases of the war, to prevent Hamas fighters from regaining too much strength in those areas

军方官员还表示,他们将继续短暂袭击战争早期阶段占领的居民区,以防止哈马斯武装分子在这些地区重新壮大。

Templates for that kind of operation include Israel’s return to Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City in March, four months after first raiding it, or its three-week operation in May in Jabaliya, which Israeli forces also first captured in November.

这类行动的典型例子包括以色列在首次袭击加沙城的希法医院四个月后,于今年3月再次袭击该医院,另一个例子是在11月首次占领的贾巴利亚,5月又开展为期三周的行动。

2. A Gaza power vacuum

2. 加沙权力真空

By withdrawing from much of Gaza without ceding power to an alternative Palestinian leadership, Israel might essentially allow Hamas’s leaders to retain their dominance over the ruined enclave, at least for now.

以色列从加沙大部分地区撤军,但不将权力移交给另一个巴勒斯坦领导者,这实际上可能会使哈马斯领导人保留对这片被毁飞地的统治,至少目前是这样。

24mideast crisis nextphase analysis gmtb master1050上周,加沙南部的汗尤尼斯。以色列政府尚未提出战争结束后管理加沙的明确计划。

It is possible that if it raided Gaza regularly, the Israeli military could prevent Hamas from returning to its former strength — but that would prolong a power vacuum in which large clans and gangs compete with Hamas for influence. That vacuum would make it even harder to rebuild Gaza, distribute aid and alleviate civilian suffering.

如果以色列军队定期袭击加沙,有可能阻止哈马斯恢复往日的实力——但这将延长权力真空,让大的部族和帮派将与哈马斯争夺影响力。这种真空将使重建加沙、分配援助和减轻平民痛苦变得更加困难。

Israel is expected to retain control of Gaza’s border with Egypt, to deter arms smuggling there. It is also expected to continue to occupy a strip of land that separates northern and southern Gaza, preventing free movement between the two areas.

以色列预计将继续控制加沙与埃及的边界,阻止那里的武器走私。预计以色列还将继续占领分隔加沙北部和南部的一块土地,阻止这两个地区之间的自由行动。

3. War with Hezbollah, or de-escalation

3. 与真主党开战,或者缓和局势

By moving more troops to its northern border, Israel’s military would be better placed to invade Lebanon so it can force Hezbollah’s fighters farther away from Israeli territory.

通过向北部边境增派军队,以色列军队将更有能力入侵黎巴嫩,迫使真主党武装分子远离以色列领土。

But a buildup of troops there could provoke more rocket strikes from Hezbollah, increasing the likelihood of a miscalculation that could spiral into all-out war. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, warned last week that the group could invade Israel, and the risk of escalation appears closer than it has in months.

但是,在那里集结军队可能会招来真主党更多的火箭袭击,从而增加误判的可能性,最终演变成全面战争。真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉上周警告,该组织可能会入侵以色列,局势升级的风险似乎比几个月来的任何时候都要紧迫。

At the same time, Israel’s declaration that it is moving into a new phase in Gaza could also provide a context for de-escalation. Less fighting in Gaza could give Hezbollah an off-ramp. In February, Mr. Nasrallah said that his group would stop firing “when the shooting stops in Gaza.”

与此同时,以色列宣布在加沙进入一个新阶段,这也可能为缓和紧张局势提供了条件。加沙战事的减少可能会给真主党一个退路。今年2月,纳斯鲁拉表示,“当加沙的枪击停止时”,他的组织也将停止开火。

A period of relative calm along the Lebanon border might also prompt displaced Israelis to return home. That in turn would ease pressure on the Israeli government to take firmer action against Hezbollah. One of the main reasons Israeli leaders considered invading Lebanon was to create conditions in which displaced Israelis could be convinced to return home.

黎巴嫩边境一段相对平静的时期也可能促使离开的以色列人返回家园。这反过来将减轻以色列政府对真主党采取更强硬行动的压力。以色列领导人考虑入侵黎巴嫩的主要原因之一是创造条件,说服离开家乡的以色列人返回。

24mideast crisis nextphase analysis lmjv master1050真主党共同创始人阿巴斯·穆萨维的肖像,上月摄于黎巴嫩巴勒贝克附近。

4. Continued tensions with the Biden administration

4. 与拜登政府关系持续紧张

By announcing a drawdown in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu reduced one source of friction with President Biden, but maintained others.

通过宣布从加沙撤军,内塔尼亚胡减少了与拜登总统之间的摩擦来源之一,但其他摩擦仍继续存在。

Mr. Biden has criticized Israel’s conduct of the war, even as his administration continues to fund Israel and supply it with arms. A less destructive war in Gaza will offer less opportunity for arguments with Washington over Israeli military strategy.

拜登批评以色列的战争行为,尽管他的政府继续为以色列提供资金和武器。一场破坏性较小的加沙战争将减少与华盛顿就以色列军事战略的争论。

But Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to articulate a clear plan for postwar governance of Gaza, as well as the lingering possibility of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, leaves ample opportunity for disagreement with Washington.

但内塔尼亚胡拒绝就加沙战后治理提出明确的计划,而且以色列入侵黎巴嫩的可能性依然存在,这为他与华盛顿之间产生分歧留下了充分机会。

The Biden administration wants the fighting with Hezbollah to end, and it has pressed Mr. Netanyahu for months to empower an alternative Palestinian leadership in Gaza. But Mr. Netanyahu has kept Gaza’s future vague, amid pressure from his right-wing coalition partners to occupy and resettle the territory with Israelis.

拜登政府希望结束与真主党的战斗,几个月来,美国一直敦促内塔尼亚胡在加沙授权另一个替代性的巴勒斯坦领导层。但内塔尼亚胡一直对加沙的未来含糊其辞,因为他的右翼联盟伙伴向他施压,要求他占领这片领土,并在这片领土内重新安置以色列人。

JOHN YOON

2024年6月25日

权平注视着他去年抵达时的仁川滩涂。 Woohae Cho for The New York Times

The dissident’s lone regret after his 200-mile escape across the Yellow Sea was not taking night vision goggles.

在穿越黄海逃亡300多公里后,这位异见人士唯一的遗憾是没有带夜视镜。

Nearing the end of his jet ski journey out of China last summer, Kwon Pyong peered through the darkness off the South Korean coast. As he approached the shore, sea gulls appeared to bob as if floating. He steered forward, then ran aground: The birds were sitting on mud.

去年夏天,权平骑水上摩托艇离开中国的逃亡之旅即将结束时,他透过黑漆漆的夜色眺望韩国海岸。靠近海岸时,他看到海鸥如同漂浮在水里一般上下晃动。他继续向前,然后就搁浅了:原来海鸥蹲在泥地上。

“I had everything — sunscreen, backup batteries, a knife to cut buoy lines,” he recalled in an interview. He was prepared to signal his location with a laser pen if he became stranded and to burn his notes with a lighter if he were captured. He also had a visa to enter South Korea, and had intended to arrive at a port of entry, he said, not strand himself on a mud flat.

他在接受采访时回忆说:“我什么都带了:防晒霜、备用电池、割浮标绳的小刀。”他还做好了准备,如果被困,就用激光笔发出自己所在位置的信号;如果被抓,就用打火机烧掉自己的笔记。他还持有进入韩国的签证,他说,他本打算抵达入境口岸,而不是在滩涂上搁浅。

It wasn’t enough.

这些都还不是全部。

Mr. Kwon, 36 and an ethnic Korean, had mocked China’s powerful leader and criticized how the ruling Communist Party was persecuting hundreds of pro-democracy activists at home and abroad. In response, he said, he faced an exit ban and years of detention, prison and surveillance.

现年36岁的权平是朝鲜族人,他曾嘲讽中国的强权领导人,并批评执政的共产党迫害国内外许许多多的民主活动人士。他说,结果自己被政府禁止出境,多年来面临拘留、监禁和监视。

But fleeing to South Korea did not offer the relief he expected. He was still hounded by the Chinese state, he said, and spent time in detention. Even after he was released, he was in legal limbo: neither wanted nor allowed to leave.

但逃到韩国并没有给他带来预期的解脱。他说,他仍然受到中国政府的追捕,而且还被韩国政府关押了一段时间。即使在获释后,他在法律上也处于困境:既不被通缉,也不被允许离开。

It would take 10 more months for Mr. Kwon to be permitted to leave South Korea. Days before he flew out on Sunday, he returned to the mud flat where he haplessly came ashore off Incheon last summer and recounted for the first time publicly the details of his meticulously planned journey.

权平获准离开韩国是10个月之后的事情了。在周日飞离韩国的几天前,他回到了去年夏天在仁川外海无奈搁浅的那个滩涂,并首次公开讲述了他精心策划的逃跑的细节。

Court documents from his criminal case in South Korea, past interviews with his friends and family and a statement from the Incheon Coast Guard last year corroborated many of the details in his account.

他在韩国的刑事案件的法庭文件、过去对他的朋友和家人的采访,以及仁川海岸警卫队去年的一份声明都证实了他讲述的许多细节。

On a Yamaha WaveRunner purchased with the equivalent of $25,000 in cash, withdrawn from several banks to avoid tipping off the police, Mr. Kwon set off on the morning of Aug. 16 from the foggy coast of the Shandong Peninsula.

去年8月16日上午,权平驾驶摩托艇从山东半岛雾蒙蒙的海岸出发。为了不引起警察注意,他从几家银行总共提取了相当于2.5万美元的现金,购买了一艘雅马哈WaveRunner摩托艇。

23xp dissident jetski master1050权平的摩托艇,照片由韩国海岸警卫队发布,摄于2023年8月,仁川。

He said he wore a black life jacket and motorcycle helmet for the journey, where he crashed into 10-foot waves and dodged floating rice wine bottles. As his skin burned from the summer sun, he fell into the sea twice, losing his sunglasses.

他说,一路上他都穿着黑色救生衣,戴着摩托车头盔,冲进3米高的海浪,躲避漂在海上的米酒瓶。他的皮肤被夏天的烈日灼伤,他两次掉进海里,弄丢了太阳镜。

He refueled using the five barrels of gas that he had tied to the WaveRunner. For himself, he had five bottles of water and five ham and tuna sandwiches. He navigated using a marine compass and a smartphone he had acquired from someone else.

他用绑在摩托艇上的五桶汽油补充燃料。他为自己准备了五瓶饮用水和五个火腿金枪鱼三明治。他用一个航海指南针和从别人那里得到的智能手机导航。

His first glimpse of land came as the setting sun gave the islands off South Korea a warm glow. What was supposed to take eight hours turned to 14. By the time Mr. Kwon arrived in Incheon, the pink sky he had stopped to admire had faded to black.

当夕阳给韩国外海的岛屿洒下温暖的光辉时,权平终于看到了陆地。原本以为需要八个小时的旅程用了14个小时。当他抵达仁川时,他之前驻足欣赏的粉色天空已经变成了漆黑一片。

He did not see any boats or ships on guard, he said, even as he entered a heavily militarized area that the navy monitors for activity, including defectors from North Korea.

权平说,他没有看到任何站岗的船只或舰艇,即使他进入的是一个军事化程度很高的区域,海军会监视这里的风吹草动,包括来自朝鲜的脱北者。

Mr. Kwon — who speaks Chinese, English and some Korean — called the local police for help. For an hour, he waited while trying to fend off mosquitoes by walking around his watercraft in beige Crocs.

会讲中文、英语和一些韩语的权平打电话向当地警方求助。在等待的一个小时里,他穿着米色的卡骆驰洞洞鞋在摩托艇周围走来走去,试图驱赶蚊子。

That night, he said, the Incheon Coast Guard and the South Korean Marine Corps rescued him, detained him and began investigating him along with the South Korean National Intelligence Service.

他说,当晚,仁川海岸警卫队和韩国海军陆战队救起他,然后将他拘留,并开始与韩国国家情报院一起对他进行调查。

23xp dissident gljh master1050从山东眺望黄海,权平就是从这里开始了他的逃亡。

South Korea rarely accepts refugees, and the authorities served him a deportation order. But over the next months, he was also banned from leaving the country as he fought a criminal charge of unlawful entry, which can be punished with up to five years in prison.

韩国很少接受难民,当局向他下达了驱逐令。但在接下来的几个月里,他被禁止离开韩国,因为他要抗争非法入境的刑事指控,该罪名最高可判五年监禁。

He said that he wondered how things might have unfolded had his arrival gone as planned.

他说自己很好奇,如果当初是按原计划那样顺利抵达韩国,事情会如何发展。

South Korean prosecutors did not lift the exit ban they imposed on Mr. Kwon until his criminal case was finished this month. He said he planned to apply for asylum in the United States or Canada. His flight on Sunday was bound for Newark.

直到权平的刑事案件于本月结案后,韩国检察官才解除了对他的出境禁令。权平说,他计划去美国或加拿大申请庇护。他周日的航班飞往的是纽约纽瓦克机场。

“I want to live my own life,” he said. “I want to live in peace for a while.”

“我想过自己的生活,”他说,“我想过一段平静的日子。”

Mr. Kwon, whose Chinese name is Quan Ping, is from a city in the northeastern Chinese province of Jilin, near the border with North Korea. He has visited South Korea, his grandfather’s birthplace, regularly since childhood. He spent his college years in the United States, where he went by Johnny, participated in Iowa State University’s Army R.O.T.C. program and took flying lessons, he said.

权平来自中国吉林省靠近朝鲜边境的一个城市。他从小就经常去他祖父的出生地韩国。他在美国度过了大学时光,在那里他叫约翰尼,他参加了爱荷华州立大学的陆军预备役军官训练团项目,并学习了飞行课程。

He studied aerospace engineering at the university for a few years and returned in 2012 to China, where he ran an online clothing brand and traded cryptocurrencies. He continued traveling widely, touring Lebanon and Syria as an aspiring photojournalist, he said.

他在大学里学了几年航空航天工程,2012年回到中国经营一个在线服装品牌并从事加密货币交易。他说,他继续四处旅行,作为一名有抱负的摄影记者,曾前往黎巴嫩和叙利亚旅行。

He first drew the ire of the Chinese authorities when he began criticizing the Communist Party online. In 2016, he posted on social media about antigovernment protests he had attended in Hong Kong, a Chinese territory. He wore a T-shirt calling China’s leader, Xi Jinping, “Xitler.”

他首次招惹中国当局是他开始在网上批评共产党后。2016年,他在社交媒体上发布了关于自己在中国领土香港参加反政府抗议活动的帖子。他穿着一件T恤,称中国领导人习近平为“习特勒”

23xp dissident 02 wjpz master1050权平逃离中国时携带的指南针。

Chinese authorities arrested Mr. Kwon that year and sentenced him in 2017 to 18 months in prison for “inciting subversion of state power,” a charge frequently leveled against dissidents and human rights lawyers.

中国当局于当年逮捕了权平,并于2017年以“煽动颠覆国家政权”的罪名判处他18个月监禁,这一罪名经常被用来指控异见人士和人权律师。

After his release in 2018, the police tapped his communications, tracked his movements and periodically interrogated him, he said. State agents, he added, were alarmed by his contact with the leaders of the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising, including Wang Dan, once one of China’s most wanted men.

他说,2018年获释后,警方监听他的通讯,追踪他的行踪,并定期对他进行问话。他还说,国安人员对他与1989年天安门广场抗议活动的领导人(包括曾是中国头号通缉犯之一的王丹)的联系感到警惕。

“I couldn’t live a normal life,” he said.

“我无法过上正常的生活,”他说。

China’s Ministry of Public Security did not respond to a request for comment.

中国公安部没有回应置评请求。

Mr. Kwon grew desperate to leave as the police investigated his family and friends. He said his plans to leave China by sea were inspired in part by the 1994 movie “The Shawshank Redemption” and by Lindsay Warner, an explorer who circumnavigated Australia on a Jet Ski. He decided South Korea was his only viable option.

警方调查权平的家人和朋友,他变得迫切想要离开。他说,他计划从海上离开中国,部分原因是受到1994年的电影《肖申克的救赎》和驾驶水上摩托艇环游澳大利亚的探险家林赛·华纳的启发。他认为韩国是唯一可行的选择。

He left behind his e-commerce and crypto operations, as well as his friends, family members and a girlfriend.

他抛下了自己的电子商务和加密货币业务,以及他的朋友、家人和女友。

After the rescue from the mud flat, Mr. Kwon said, investigators seemed baffled by his story and interrogated him, threatened to torture him and denied his request for a lawyer. The Incheon Coast Guard, which led the investigation, said in a statement that “there were no human rights violations” during the investigation.

权平说,在从滩涂上获救后,调查人员似乎对他的故事感到困惑,并审问了他,威胁要折磨他,并拒绝了他聘请律师的请求。负责调查的仁川海警在一份声明中表示,调查期间“没有侵犯人权的行为”。

23xp dissident pjwz master1050权平周日在韩国仁川机场。他说,自己计划在美国或加拿大申请庇护。

In court, Mr. Kwon argued that he was a political refugee and had intended to arrive legally at the Incheon Port, less than a mile from the mud flat, with a tourist visa. A judge found him guilty of unlawful entry in November, handing down a suspended one-year prison sentence with a two-year probationary period.

在法庭上,权平辩称自己是政治难民,本打算持旅游签证合法抵达距离那处滩涂1000多米的仁川港。11月,法官裁定他犯有非法入境罪,判处他一年有期徒刑,缓刑两年。

The verdict released Mr. Kwon from custody but not from legal limbo. Immigration officials imposed an exit ban as prosecutors appealed the judge’s decision.

这一判决释放了权平,但并未解除他的法律困境。检察官对法官的判决提出上诉,移民官员对他实施了出境禁令。

While living in his parents’ house in Ansan, south of Seoul, Mr. Kwon went to the gym, read books about crypto trading and volunteered at an English language school for adults. He said he also befriended a group of Nigerian refugees by joining their soccer club.

住在首尔以南安山的父母家中时,权平会去健身房,阅读有关加密货币交易的书籍,并在成人英语学校做志愿者。他说,他还加入了一群尼日利亚难民的足球俱乐部,与他们成为了朋友。

But he didn’t let his guard down. He stuck to the routines he had developed in China: constantly checking for security cameras, and using encrypted texting apps and signal-blocking Faraday bags.

但他没有放松警惕。他坚持在中国养成的习惯:不断检查安全摄像头,使用加密短信应用程序和能屏蔽信号的法拉第袋。

Lee Dae-seon, a South Korean activist who has helped Mr. Kwon, said that he has warned Mr. Kwon of the dangers of China’s overseas police effort, known as Operation Fox Hunt, in which Chinese dissidents living abroad have been forcibly repatriated.

帮助权平的韩国活动人士李大宣(音)表示,他已经警告过权平关于中国海外警察的“猎狐行动”的危险性,该行动将居住在海外的中国异见人士强制遣返。

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service confirmed with Mr. Lee that he and Mr. Kwon were targets of the operation, Mr. Lee said. The N.I.S. did not respond to a request for comment.

李大宣说,韩国国家情报院向自己证实,他和权平是这一行动的目标。韩国国家情报院没有回应置评请求。

“It is not safe for him to continue living in South Korea,” Mr. Lee said.

“他继续住在韩国不安全,”李大宣说。

23xp dissident wkmf master1050权平在他抵达韩国的地点附近,展示他获得的韩国旅游签证。图片的右上角可以看到他原本计划前往的合法入境口岸。

In May, an appeals court dismissed prosecutors’ appeal, as well as Mr. Kwon’s lawyers’ efforts to have his sentence reduced. Mr. Kwon decided not to pursue the case further so that he could leave the country quickly, and prosecutors lifted the travel ban, said Sejin Kim, his lawyer.

5月,上诉法院驳回了检察官的上诉及权平律师为减刑所做的努力。权平的律师金世真(音)表示,为了尽快离开韩国,权平决定不再继续上诉,检察官也解除了旅行禁令。

At the mud flat, Mr. Kwon said he was looking forward to leaving and starting a new business venture. He said some of his friends and relatives live in the United States and Canada. He is traveling to the United States on a visa for visitors.

在滩涂上,权平表示他期待着离开中国,开始新的商业尝试。他说,他的一些朋友和亲戚住在美国和加拿大。他将持旅游签证前往美国。

“I want to start my second life,” he said.

“我想开始我的第二人生,”他说。

An immigration law specialist said that while a case for seeking asylum in the United States appeared to be strong, a decision could take years. Mr. Kwon would also have to demonstrate a “well-founded fear” of additional persecution should he be deported to China, said the specialist, Yael Schacher, of Refugees International, a nonprofit in Washington, D.C.

一位移民法专家表示,虽然在美国寻求庇护的理由似乎很充分,但等待当局作出决定可能需要数年时间。华盛顿特区非营利组织难民国际的专家耶尔·沙赫表示,权平还必须证明,如果他被遣返回中国,他“有充分理由担心”会遭到进一步迫害。

At Incheon Airport on Sunday, he said goodbye to his parents and friends in South Korea, where he would be barred from returning for five years because of his criminal record.

周日,他在仁川机场与韩国的父母和朋友告别,由于有犯罪记录,他将被禁止在五年内返回韩国。

He disappeared into the security line, a ticket for seat 17A in hand, and with his Chinese passport and his South Korean deportation order in the black tactical backpack he had brought on his escape from China. He confirmed that he had boarded his plane by telephone.

他消失在安检队伍中,手里拿着17A座位的机票,逃出中国时带来的黑色战术背包里装着他的中国护照和韩国驱逐令。他通过电话确认已经登机。

“I’m happy, sad,” he said minutes before his flight was set to take off. “And angry,” he added, “that it took me so long to leave South Korea.”

“我既高兴又难过,”他在航班起飞前几分钟说道。“而且很生气,”他补充道,“我花了这么长时间才离开韩国。”

At shortly before 10 p.m., the flight status display showed that his plane had departed.

大概在晚上将近10点的时候,航班状态显示屏显示他的飞机已经起飞。

CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年6月25日

韩国华城工厂发生的火灾是该国近年来最严重的火灾之一。 Newsis, via Associated Press

A fire at a lithium battery factory near Seoul​ on Monday killed 22 workers, most of them migrant laborers from China, in one of the deadliest blazes in South Korea in years, officials said.

首尔附近一家锂电池工厂周一发生火灾,官方表示,火灾造成22名工人死亡,其中大多数是中国劳工,这是韩国近年来死亡人数最多的火灾之一。

Officials said that rescuers were still searching the building in Hwaseong, 28 miles south of Seoul, for one worker who had been reported missing. They said it was unclear whether the worker was in the building when the fire broke out.

官员们说,救援人员仍在首尔以南45公里的华城寻找一名据报失踪的工人。他们说,目前还不清楚火灾发生时这名工人是否在大楼内。

​Two workers were hospitalized with serious injuries. Six others suffered minor injuries.

两名工人因重伤被送往医院治疗,另有六人受轻伤。

Kim Jin-young, an official with the Hwaseong Fire Department, said 102 people had been working in the factory, owned by the battery maker Aricell, when the fire broke out. The 22 victims included 18 migrants​ from China and one from Laos, as well as two South Koreans.

华城消防部门官员金振永(音)表示,火灾发生时,工厂里共有102人在工作,该厂为锂电池制造商Aricell所有。22名遇难者当中包括18名中国劳工和一名老挝劳工,还有两名韩国人。

They were found dead on the 12,500-square foot second floor of the factory. The floor had two unlocked exit staircases leading outside, but the workers appeared to have been overcome by the flames and toxic smoke before reaching them, Mr. Kim said.

遇难者死在工厂的二楼。这一层面积有1161平方米,有两个没有上锁的安全出口楼梯通向室外,但金振永表示,工人们在到达安全出口前就已经被火焰和有毒的烟雾吞噬。

It took only 15 seconds for the floor to be filled with smoke and flames, said a senior fire official, Jo Seon-ho, during a news briefing Monday.

高级消防官员赵善浩(音)在周一的新闻发布会上表示,仅15秒钟,楼层就被浓烟和火焰包围。

After trying in vain to put out the blaze with fire extinguishers, he said, the workers rushed to an area of the floor where there was no exit.

他说,在试图用灭火器灭火无果后,工人们冲到了楼层一个没有出口的区域。

The dead migrant workers were temporary hires who were likely unfamiliar with the structure of the building, he said. “The smoke was so toxic you could lose your consciousness after taking one or two breaths,” Mr. Jo said.

他说,死亡的劳工都是临时工,他们很可能不熟悉大楼的结构。他还表示,“烟雾的毒性很强,吸入一两口就会失去知觉。”

Chinese, including ethnic Koreans, are the biggest group of migrant workers in South Korea. Of 523,000 foreigners visiting South Korea on temporary work visas according to government data released late last year, more than 100,000 were from China.

包括朝鲜族人在内的中国人是韩国最大的外来务工群体。根据政府去年底公布的数据,在持临时工作签证访问韩国的52.3万名外国人中,有逾10万人来自中国。

Separately, hundreds of thousands of Korean Chinese are working in South Korea on special longer-term work visas that the country grants to ethnic Koreans living abroad.

另外,成千上万的朝鲜族中国人持有特殊的长期工作签证,这种签证是韩国向居住在国外的朝鲜族人发放的。

After suffering low birthrates for decades, South Korea has become increasingly dependent on migrant workers to fill jobs shunned by locals. Many farms and small factories in industrial towns like Hwaseong could not operate without such migrant workers.

在经历了数十年的低出生率之后,韩国越来越依赖外来务工人员填补本国人不愿从事的工作。没有这些外来务工人员,华城等工业城市的许多农场和小型工厂就无法运转。

Workers who fled the fire said it started when a single battery cell caught fire, triggering a series of explosions among some of the 35,000 lithium battery cells stored on the factory’s second floor, according to Mr. Kim.

金振永表示,成功逃生的工人说,火灾是由一块电池起火引起的,工厂二楼存放着3.5万块锂电池,火灾引发部分电池出现一系列爆炸。

Fires can occur in lithium batteries when the inside layers are compressed, causing a short circuit. The layers can become compressed by a sudden impact, such as during a vehicle collision, or by gradual swelling of the batteries through regular use.

当锂电池内层受到挤压时就会导致短路起火。由于突然的撞击,例如在车辆发生碰撞的时候,或者由于电池在日常使用中逐渐膨胀,内层都可能受到挤压。

Lithium is a metal that can store large amounts of energy in a small space, which is why it is attractive as a battery material. But that also means there is much energy available to turn into heat and even flames in case of a short circuit. Lithium battery fires have been a growing problem in the United States and elsewhere, and fires are an industrywide concern for battery manufacturers.

锂是一种可以用小体积储存大量能量的金属,这就是为什么它作为电池材料备受青睐。但这也意味着在短路的情况下,有很多能量可以转化为热量甚至火焰。在包括美国的许多地方,锂电池引发的火灾已经成为一个日益严重的问题,起火一直是电池制造商普遍关注的问题。

Aricell, the Hwaseong plant’s owner, makes batteries that are often used to run electricity and other utilities networks.

这间华城工厂的所有者Aricell生产的电池通常用于电力和其他公用事业网络。

Intense flames, toxic smoke and the risk of further explosions hampered firefighters’ efforts to search for the missing workers on Monday. Television footage from the fire showed large​ flames and thick clouds of smoke billowing from the factory. Footage taken after the fi​re had been extinguished showed the building scorched​, with its roof caved in.

周一,大火、毒烟和进一步爆炸的可能性阻碍了消防员对失踪工人的搜寻。来自火灾现场的电视画面显示,大火和浓烟从工厂滚滚而出。大火扑灭后拍摄的画面显示,建筑被烧毁,屋顶塌陷。

More than 160 firefighters, along with 60 fire engines, rushed to contain the fire. President Yoon Suk Yeol called on his government to “mobilize all available human resources and equipment.”

160多名消防员和60辆消防车赶赴现场灭火。尹锡悦总统要求政府“调动所有可用的人力资源和设备”。

The blaze was the deadliest in South Korea since a fire at a construction site southeast of Seoul killed 38 people in 2020.

这是自2020年首尔东南部一处建筑工地起火造成38人死亡以来,韩国死亡人数最多的火灾。

Though South Korea is known for its cutting-edge technology and manufacturing, the country has ​long been plagued by man-made disasters, including fires.

尽管以尖端技术和制造业闻名,韩国长期以来一直受到包括火灾在内的人祸的困扰

In 2018, nearly 50 people, most of them elderly patients, died inhaling toxic smoke in a fire at a hospital that lacked sprinklers. In 2017, 29 people were killed in a fire at a gym and public bath complex. In 2008, 40 workers​, including migrant workers, died​ in a fire at a cold-storage warehouse under construction.

2018年,一家缺乏自动喷水灭火装置的医院发生火灾,近50人因吸入有毒烟雾死亡,其中大部分是老年患者。2017年,一家健身中心和公共浴室发生火灾,导致29人丧生。2008年,一座在建冷库发生火灾,包括外来劳工在内的40人丧生。

黄安伟

2024年6月24日

I didn’t have much time. I was in the remote town of Altay in China’s far northwest region of Xinjiang, on the mountainous border with Russia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan, thousands of miles from my base in Beijing as a bureau chief for The New York Times.

我的时间不多。我正在中国西北边陲的新疆阿勒泰,那是个同俄罗斯、蒙古和哈萨克斯坦接壤的偏远山区,与我担任社长的《纽约时报》北京分社相距数千公里。

In this case, my mission was personal: I was seeking records in Altay’s Civil Affairs Bureau on my father’s service in a Chinese army unit six decades earlier. I knew police officers would soon be trailing me, as they did whenever foreign journalists turned up in Xinjiang.

这一次我是为私事而来:在阿勒泰民政局寻找我父亲60年前在中国军队服役的记录。我知道警察很快就会跟踪我,每当外国记者出现在新疆,他们都会这样做。

It was 2014. President Xi Jinping had begun enacting much harsher policies in the region, home to Uyghur and Kazakh Muslims. For centuries, control of the area, a vast land of people from myriad ethnic groups living among mountains, deserts and high steppe has been central to Chinese rulers’ conception of empire.

那是2014年。习近平主席开始在这个维吾尔和哈萨克穆斯林聚居的地区实施更严厉的政策。这片广袤的土地上遍布高山、沙漠和高原草原,生活着各个民族的人民,几个世纪以来,在中国统治者的帝国设想中,对这里的控制一直是重中之重。

I knew that finding anything about my father, Yook Kearn Wong, was a long shot. But at the Civil Affairs Bureau, I struck up a conversation in a second-floor office with Wei Yangxuan, a young woman who happened to be an army veteran and helped organize activities for military retirees. I asked her if she knew anything about an old army base of mostly Kazakh cavalry soldiers, where my father and a few other ethnic Han soldiers had served in 1952.

我知道,要找到父亲黄沃强的任何信息都很困难。但在民政局,我在二楼的一间办公室里与年轻的魏阳萱(音)聊了起来。她恰好是一名退伍军人,帮助组织老兵的活动。我问她是否知道一个以哈萨克骑兵为主的老军事基地,我父亲和其他几名汉族士兵1952年曾在那里服役。

She shook her head no.

她摇了摇头。

I knew I probably wouldn’t return to Altay, and that I had only this one chance. Suddenly I realized it was just past 7 a.m. in suburban Virginia, where my parents had lived for decades. Maybe if I called from my cellphone, Dad could tell Ms. Wei about the Kazakh base.

我知道我可能再也不会来阿勒泰了,我只有这一次机会。突然间,我意识到,现在是弗吉尼亚的早上七点多——我父母在那里的郊区生活了几十年。也许,如果我用手机打电话,爸爸就能把哈萨克基地的情况告诉魏女士。

He answered. I told him I was in Altay.

他接了电话。我告诉他我在阿勒泰。

“You’re where?” he said. He sounded incredulous.

“你在哪里?”他说,好像不敢相信。

中国西北部新疆地区的偏远小镇阿勒泰,座落在与俄罗斯、蒙古和哈萨克斯坦接壤的山区之中。

I asked him to describe the Kazakh base to Ms. Wei, then handed her the phone.

我请他向魏女士描述一下当年的哈萨克基地,然后把手机递给她。

They talked for a few minutes. I looked out the window. On the plaza below, I saw two parked police trucks. Around each vehicle stood a few policemen in black uniforms and riot gear — helmets, batons, body armor. I thought I saw one of them look up at the window. I quickly backed away.

他们谈了几分钟。我向窗外望去。在下面的广场上,我看到两辆停着的警车。每辆车周围都站着几名警察,身穿黑色制服、配备防暴装备——头盔、警棍和防弹衣。我想我看到其中一个人抬头看着窗户。我赶快往后退。

Ms. Wei handed the phone back to me.

魏女士把电话还给我。

Dad sounded confused, and a bit concerned. “I just told her about the Fifth Army’s base,” he told me, referring to the unit of Kazakh and Uyghur soldiers in which he had worked. “Now you tell me why you’re in Altay.”

爸爸听起来很困惑,还有点担心。“我跟她讲了第五军的基地的事,”他告诉我,他指的是他曾经工作过的、由哈萨克和维吾尔士兵组成的部队。“现在你告诉我,你为什么在阿勒泰。”

The Uniform

制服

My father rarely talked about China when I was growing up in Alexandria, Va. On nights he came home early, he didn’t sit on the edge of my bed regaling me with stories about his life. In that way, he was like many Asian immigrant fathers of his generation, those men who were intent on building something new for their families and focusing only on what was in front of them.

小时候在弗吉尼亚州的亚历山德里亚,父亲很少说起中国。有时候晚上回家比较早,他也不会坐在我的床边,给我讲他的人生故事。在这方面,他和他那一代的许多亚裔移民父亲一样,他们一心想为家人创造新生活,只关注眼前的事情。

He had only Sundays off from his job at a Chinese restaurant, Sampan Cafe. On some of those days, we watched American football, and we looked at my math textbooks, algebra or geometry or calculus. He knew numbers. I would learn later that he had studied engineering after the army.

他在一家名叫海记的中餐馆工作,只有周日不上班。那些日子里,我们一起看橄榄球,一起看我的数学课本,代数、几何还有微积分。他数学很好。我后来才知道,他退伍后学的是工程学。

Sometimes I watched him put on a red blazer and black pants to go to work at the restaurant. For decades, this was the only uniform I associated with him.

有时候,我看到他穿着红色西装外套和黑色裤子去餐馆上班。几十年来,那是我眼里唯一跟他有关联的一种制服。

But one day, while I was visiting from graduate school and starting to ask my parents about their upbringings in southern China, Dad showed me a photograph of himself from his days in the Communist army.

但是,有一天,我从研究生院回来看望父母,询问他们在中国南方的成长经历,爸爸给我看了一张他在共产党军队服役时的照片。

It had been taken in northwest China in 1953. My father’s eyes glimmered, and his skin had none of the lines of age. He wore a plain military uniform and a cap. I ran a finger over a darkened spot in the hat’s center. A shadow there. That was where the red star had been, he said. The symbol of the People’s Liberation Army of China. Dad had sent the photo to Hong Kong, where his parents were living at the time, and his father had rubbed out the star, fearful of what the British colonial authorities might do if they saw it.

那是1953年在中国西北拍摄的。父亲的眼睛炯炯有神,皮肤上没有一丝岁月的痕迹。他穿着朴素的军装,戴着一顶军帽。我用手指轻轻划过帽子中间的一个黑点。那里有一个阴影。他说,那里原来有一颗红星,是中国人民解放军的标志。父亲把照片寄到香港,当时他的父母住在那里。父亲担心英国殖民当局看到照片会有什么反应,就把星星擦掉了。

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我的父亲寄给在香港祖父的照片。
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1980年,父亲与我和我的妹妹。
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1950年,即将高中毕业的父亲。

I learned more about my father’s past after 2008, the start of nearly nine years I spent as a Times correspondent in China. I traveled to Guangdong Province in the far south, where both my father and mother had grown up. That prompted deeper conversations with them and with my father’s older brother, Sam.

2008年开始我对父亲的过去有了更多了解,那一年我开始为担任时报驻华记者,在中国度过了近九年。我去了南方的广东省,父母都在那里长大。这促使我与他们以及父亲的哥哥山姆做了更深入的对话。

My father was born in Hong Kong in 1932 but was forced to move to his family’s home village in Taishan County in southern China after the Japanese army occupied the British colony in 1941. He graduated from high school in the spring of 1950, the first full year of Communist rule, then entered university in Beijing that fall. He had been intent on going to school in the ancient city that Mao Zedong had chosen as a capital because he embraced the Communist cause, believing the new leaders would rejuvenate China after the ruinous policies and corruption of the Nationalists.

父亲于1932年出生在香港,但在1941年日本军队占领了这个英国殖民地后,他被迫回到中国南方的台山县老家。1950年春天,也就是共产党执政后的第一年,他从高中毕业,同年秋天考入北京的大学。他一心想去那座被毛泽东选为首都的古城上学,因为他拥护共产党的事业,相信新的领导人会在国民党的破坏性政策和腐败之后振兴中国。

There he marched with other university students in a parade in front of Mao in Tiananmen Square. China had entered the Korean War to fight the American military, and he soon dropped out of school to join the new air force. He was proud to do his part to defend the motherland against what party leaders said was an inevitable invasion of China by the American forces once they triumphed on the Korean Peninsula.

在那里,他和其他大学生一起参加了天安门广场的游行,接受了毛泽东的检阅。当时中国加入了朝鲜战争,与美军作战,他很快辍学加入了新成立的空军部队。党的领导人说,一旦美国军队在朝鲜半岛取得胜利,就会不可避免地入侵中国,而他为保卫祖国尽了自己的力量而感到自豪。

His plans were dashed, however, when Chinese officers abruptly ordered him to abandon his training in Manchuria and deploy with the army to the northwest, and ultimately to the frontier with Central Asia. Dad’s offense, he suspected, was that his father was a merchant and had returned to Hong Kong with his mother, while Sam was studying in the United States. Because of that, he was being sent into exile.

然而,他的计划破灭了,中国军官突然命令他中止在满洲的训练,随部队前往西北,最终到达中亚边境。他怀疑这是父亲的过错,因为他的父亲是商人,随母亲一起回到香港,而山姆在美国读书。他是因此遭到贬谪。

It was here that the details of my father’s story remained shrouded in mystery. On that trip to Altay in 2014, I hit a wall: The police officers had indeed found me and followed me until I drove out of town. There were limits to what more I could learn in China.

正是在这里,父亲故事的细节笼罩在神秘之中。在2014年的阿勒泰之行中,我碰了壁:警察确实发现了我,并一直跟踪我,直到我开车出城。我在中国能了解到的东西是有限的。

But when I moved to Washington in 2018 as a diplomatic correspondent for The Times and began working on a book about my family and the arc of modern China, I returned to the subject of Altay and Dad’s other work in Xinjiang. I spent dozens of hours interviewing him in my childhood home, and reading letters he had written to Sam after his military service.

但当我于2018年搬到华盛顿,担任时报的外交记者,并开始撰写一本关于我的家庭和现代中国的书时,我又回到了阿勒泰和爸爸在新疆的其他工作这个问题。我花了几十个小时,在儿时的家中采访他,读他入伍后写给山姆的信。

I was fascinated by the details of his role in how Mao and Xi Zhongxun, the father of Mr. Xi, had established military control of the northwest, a crucial moment that few people alive today can speak about. It laid the groundwork for Communist rule over Xinjiang and the quashing of independence movements there, and it presaged more recent efforts by Beijing at repressing Uyghurs and Kazakhs through the internment camp system, forced labor and mass surveillance.

他参与了毛泽东和习仲勋(习近平的父亲)对西北地区建立军事控制的行动,我对他在其中发挥的作用充满了兴趣,这是一个在世的人很少能够说起的关键时刻。它为共产党统治新疆和镇压那里的独立运动奠定了基础,也预示了北京最近通过拘禁营制度、强迫劳动和大规模监视来镇压维吾尔人和哈萨克人的努力。

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Dad witnessed firsthand the early forms of control that have evolved into what we see today, and was a participant in it. The more I talked to him about his past, the more I realized the value in recording his memories, especially those of his time on the northwest frontier.

父亲亲眼目睹了早期的控制形式,并且参与其中,这些形式已经演变成我们今天所看到的。我和他聊得愈多,就愈是意识到,记录他的记忆,尤其是他在西北边境的记忆具有宝贵的价值。

Mission to Altay

阿勒泰的任务

As my father told it, his trip from Manchuria to the far reaches of Xinjiang took half a year. He rode with other Han soldiers in the open back of army trucks that rumbled along the length of the Great Wall and beyond. He was filled with dread about what awaited him, but he was also struck by the beauty of a China he had never seen.

父亲说,从满洲前往遥远的新疆花费了半年的时间。他和其他汉族士兵一起坐在敞篷的军用卡车里,沿着长城隆隆向远方行驶。他对即将到来的一切充满了恐惧,但从未见过的中国美景也令他震撼。

Heading west from Xi’an, the capital of Shaanxi Province, he remembered the persimmons, plump and smooth and the color of burned copper, hanging low from the trees in the autumn light. How sweet it would be to bite into one. Dust trailed the truck as it continued down the dirt road. He was heading into a vast and sere land, a place of ancient paths and towns, many now long gone. A frontier. The warriors who came before them, also gone.

他记得当时从陕西省会西安一路向西,秋天的阳光下,柿子丰满光滑,颜色像烧红的铜,低低垂挂在树上。如果能咬一口,该有多甜啊。卡车在土路上行驶,尘土飞扬。他正驶向一片广袤而荒凉的土地,那里有许多古老的道路和城镇,其中许多现在早已不复存在。那是边疆地带。在他们之前曾经来到这里的兵将,也已经不在人世。

By the time he reached a sensitive area north of the Tian Shan mountains, near the borders with the Soviet Union and Mongolia, snow covered the ground. In the town of Burqin, Kazakhs rode through the streets on horses. To my father and the other Han soldiers, it was a new world, wilder than any they had imagined existed in China.

当他到达靠天山以北近苏联和蒙古边界的敏感地区时,大地已被冰雪覆盖。在布尔津镇,哈萨克人骑着马穿过街道。对我父亲和其他汉族士兵来说,这是一个全新的世界,比他们想象中的中国更狂野。

He finally arrived at the base outside Altay on Jan. 27, 1952, the Lunar New Year, the start of the year of the Water Dragon. There were 1,000 Kazakh soldiers there. His mission, it turned out, was indoctrination.

他终于在1952年1月27日到达了阿勒泰城外的基地,那天是农历新年,水龙年的开始。那里有1000名哈萨克士兵。后来得知,他的任务是进行思想灌输。

Each morning, my father told me, Kazakh soldiers gathered in a hall. The Han Chinese political commissar, who was also the highest-ranking officer, sat at the head of the room, and the other Han soldiers sat near him. He did all the talking. With the help of an interpreter, he ran through the party’s lines of propaganda.

父亲告诉我,每天早上,哈萨克士兵都聚集在一个大厅里。级别最高的军官——一名汉族政委——坐在房间的最前面,其他汉族士兵坐在他的旁边。只有他会发言,在翻译的帮助下,他滔滔不绝地介绍党的宣传路线。

He talked about the Communist revolution and how it was ushering China into a new era. He talked about the end of the old feudal society and the elimination of classes. He talked about the leadership of Mao and the proletarian struggle and the need to resist imperialist powers, especially the United States.

他讲到共产主义革命,以及党如何带领中国进入新时代。他讲到旧的封建社会的终结和阶级的消灭。他讲到毛泽东的领导和无产阶级斗争,以及抵抗帝国主义列强、特别是美国的必要性。

Mao’s revolutionary vision was rooted in an uprising of peasants, like the Kazakh nomads here, and not just in the struggle of workers in cities, the officer said. Though the Han were the dominant ethnic group in the heartland, the officer said the native ethnic groups and the Han had equal stakes in the future of China, and the party respected the cultures, beliefs and autonomy of all the peoples.

这位官员说,毛泽东的革命愿景不仅植根于城市工人的斗争,也植根于农民的起义,他们和这里的哈萨克游牧民族一样。尽管汉人是中国中心地带的主要民族,但这位官员表示,这里的本土民族和汉人在中国的未来中有着平等的利益,党尊重所有民族的文化、信仰和自治。

The routine was the same every day. In the morning sessions, my father sat quietly and listened to the officer. He thought he couldn’t talk about the party yet with others, to teach its doctrines and its ideas. The party was a mysterious beast, something unknowable for now, and he understood it would take time to learn its ways.

每天都是重复这个套路。在上午的会上,父亲静静地坐在那里,听着政委讲话。他认为他还不能和别人讲述这个党,不能传授它的教义和思想。党是一个他目前还无法领会的东西,他知道理解它的方法是需要时间的。

In the afternoons, the visiting Han soldiers huddled in their room, putting their hands near the coal stove to stay warm. It was so cold that the hunks of beef and sheep and horse meat that the soldiers arranged in piles by the wall stayed frozen. Every now and then, outside of the formal sessions, Dad tried speaking with one of the Kazakh soldiers and soon began to learn a few words of their language.

下午,汉族士兵挤在房间里,把手放在煤炉旁取暖。天太冷了,士兵们堆在墙边的大块牛肉、羊肉和马肉都冻住了。在正式会议之余,爸爸不时试着和一个哈萨克士兵说话,很快就学会了几句他们的语言。

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Tom Hutchins/VCG, via Getty Images
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Tom Hutchins/VCG, via Getty Images
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1955年和1956 年,与一些突厥语族人民一起生活,对汉族士兵来说一个新的现实。 Sovfoto/Universal Images Group, via Getty Images

My father told me that relations between the Han and people of other ethnicities in Xinjiang were calm, but I found a darker assessment in a letter he sent to Sam on May 12, 1963, years after he had left Xinjiang. He wrote that the 15 or so ethnic groups he observed had one thing in common, which was “a deep hatred of the Han people.”

父亲告诉我,在新疆,汉人与其他民族之间的关系是平和的,但在他离开新疆多年后的1963年5月12日写给山姆的信中,我发现了更阴暗的评价。他写道,他观察到的15个左右的民族有一个共同点,那就是“对汉人深恶痛绝”。

Dad described how after 1946, when the Nationalist general Zhang Zhizhong became governor, “the Han were violent and aggressive, actively oppressing the various ethnic peoples, which led the three main regions of northern Xinjiang (north of the Tian Shan) to rise up in revolt.”

父亲描述说,1946年,国民党将军张治中担任新疆省政府主席后,“汉人暴力好斗,对各民族进行压迫,导致北疆(天山以北)三个主要地区起义。”

As my father began his postings in those volatile northern areas, he hoped the People’s Liberation Army would be able to win the trust of the local groups. Surely Communist governance would be different from the earlier conquests, he thought.

当父亲开始被派驻动荡的北方地区时,他希望解放军能够赢得当地民众的信任。他想,共产党的管理肯定会不同于此前的征服。

But there were episodes of bloodshed from the start of military rule. In early 1951, a year before my father arrived in Altay, Han soldiers captured a Kazakh insurgent leader, Osman Batur, who had fought for years for nomad autonomy. They executed him by hanging that April. Hundreds of his compatriots fled across the Himalayas into India and eventually ended up in Turkey. Osman became a symbol of Kazakh nationalism.

但是,军事统治一开始就有流血事件发生。1951年初,也就是我父亲到达阿勒泰的前一年,汉族士兵俘虏了哈萨克叛乱领袖乌斯满·巴图尔,多年来,他一直为争取这个游牧民族的自治而战。那年4月,他们将他处以绞刑。他的数百名同胞越过喜马拉雅山逃到印度,最终抵达土耳其。乌斯满成为哈萨克民族主义的象征。

The Labyrinth

迷宫

After Altay and a couple of postings in the fertile Ili Valley, my father was sent to the town of Wenquan, near Soviet Kazakhstan, to work on one of the first military farming garrisons set up to control Xinjiang. Senior army officers recommended him for party membership, which filled him with hope.

父亲先后驻扎在阿勒泰和肥沃的伊犁河谷,后被派往靠近苏联哈萨克斯坦的温泉县,在为控制新疆而建立的首批建设兵团之一工作。他的上级军官推荐他入党,这让他充满了希望。

In 1957, he got the chance to return to interior China and enroll in university in Xi’an to study aerospace engineering. But he soon discovered that he would likely never become a party member. Some officials still harbored suspicions of him because of his family background.

1957年他得到了返回内地的机会,去西安上大学,学习航空航天工程。但他很快发现,自己可能永远不会成为党员。由于家庭背景,一些官员仍然对他有怀疑。

At the same time, Mao threw China into turmoil. During the famine that resulted from Mao’s failed economic policies of the Great Leap Forward, my father had barely enough food on campus to subsist and grew gaunt, with rib bones in sharp relief. His feet became swollen, and he could barely walk. He was one of the lucky ones: Historians later estimated that 30 to 40 million people perished in the famine between 1958 and 1962.

与此同时,毛泽东使中国陷入混乱。在毛泽东的“大跃进”经济政策失败导致的饥荒期间,父亲在校园里几乎吃不饱饭,变得瘦骨嶙峋。他双脚浮肿,行走很艰难。他还是幸运的:历史学家后来估计,在1958年至1962年的饥荒中,有3000万至4000万人丧生。

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Hsinhua News Agency/Associated Press
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1950年代末期,毛泽东让中国陷入动荡后,父亲在大饥荒时期患病。1962年,难民纷纷涌入香港。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

As the famine ebbed, he realized he had to escape China. He managed to flee in 1962 to the Portuguese colony of Macau and then reunite with his parents in Hong Kong. He moved to the Washington area in 1967 with his grandmother to join Sam.

随着饥荒消退,他意识到自己必须逃离中国。1962年,他设法逃到葡萄牙殖民地澳门,然后在香港与父母团聚。1967年,他随祖母搬到华盛顿地区与山姆团聚。

My father managed to avoid the violence of the Cultural Revolution, which Mao ignited in 1966. He told me he likely would have been persecuted by Red Guard zealots, given his family background, and might not have survived. Other family members were not so lucky: A younger cousin who had been a childhood playmate and who was working as a scientist in Shanghai was wrongly accused by Red Guards of being a C.I.A. agent. He killed himself in 1969, leaving behind a wife and two sons.

父亲逃过了1966年毛泽东发动的“文化大革命”的暴力。他告诉我,鉴于他的家庭背景,他很可能遭到红卫兵狂热分子的迫害,甚至可能活不下来。其他家庭成员就没那么幸运了:他小时候的玩伴、在上海当科学家的表弟被红卫兵错误地指控为中情局特工。他于1969年自杀,留下妻子和两个儿子。

Decades later, another cousin of his who had grown up in very different circumstances, Gary Locke, would serve in Beijing as the U.S. ambassador to China while I was living and working there.

几十年后,他的另一位与他成长环境截然不同的表亲骆家辉在北京担任美国驻华大使,同一时期我也在北京工作生活。

I marvel at the ways my family’s story has looped like a Möbius strip around multiple generations and around the history of China. Twice, I have stood in Tiananmen Square watching Mr. Xi wave to a military parade, just as my father looked for Mao atop the crimson imperial gate while marching there in 1950.

我惊奇地发现,家族的故事就像是一条莫比乌斯带,在几代人和中国的历史中循环往复。我曾两次站在天安门广场上,看着习近平向阅兵队伍挥手致意,1950年,父亲也曾在游行队伍中,寻找站在那座深红城楼上的毛泽东。

By moving to Beijing as a Times correspondent, I became a proxy for that immersion in the People’s Republic of China that my father ended in 1962. In a letter to his brother more than four months after returning to Hong Kong, he wrote, “When I think back on these dozen years, it is as if I have gained nothing — a thought that makes me quite melancholic. Normally when I speak to others about this journey, I hide the fact that I was in the army, or that I ever tried to join the party.”

我以时报记者的身份搬到北京,体会到父亲在1962年结束的那种被淹没在中华人民共和国中的感觉。回港四个多月后,他在给哥哥的信中写道:“回首这十几年,我仿佛一事无成,这种想法让我颇为惆怅。通常和别人谈起这段经历,我会隐瞒我当过兵或者曾经想入党的事情。”

My father turns 92 next month, and he looks back on his years in China now with clear eyes but without that earlier bitterness, having built a life over nearly six decades in America. He even talks about that period with some nostalgia, saying that at least he was part of something larger then, part of a moment when most citizens embraced a sense of national duty and collective purpose.

父亲下个月就92岁了,已在美国度过了近60年的时光,如今回首在中国的那段岁月,他目光清澈,但没有了早年的苦涩。他甚至带着怀旧之情谈到那个时期,说他至少是那个时代的一部分,那个时候,大多数公民都接受对国家的责任感和集体目标。

00dc chinabook 06 jumbo
2008年,我的父亲(左上)站在他的哥哥山姆(左下)后面,旁边是他们的表兄弟。四个人都是在两次世界大战期间的中国长大的。

One afternoon last year, when I was still writing my book, he told me that the Communists had been necessary for China, for reviving it after the war with Japan and the corrupt rule of the Nationalists.

去年的一个下午,当我还在写这本书的时候,他告诉我,共产党对中国来说是有必要的,因为它在抗日战争和国民党的腐败统治之后复兴了中国。

But the party had fundamental flaws. While my father had done everything he could to demonstrate his loyalty, to show he wanted to work for the future of China under the new rulers, even going to the frontier for them, party officials would not bring him into their fold. Mired in their fears, in their ideas of power, in the labyrinth of their own making, they had no reserves of trust or faith or generosity.

但是,共产党有着根本的缺陷。虽然父亲尽了一切努力来证明他的忠诚,表明他想在新统治者的领导下为中国的未来工作,甚至为他们奔赴边疆,但党的官员依然不会接纳他。这些官员深陷在自己的恐惧之中,深陷在自己的权力观念之中,深陷在自己制造的迷宫中,没有信任、信念或慷慨的胸襟。

Their leaders were no exception, he said.

他们的领导人也不例外,他说。

Years ago, as we sat together in my childhood home after dinner, he told me he still remembered the words to “The East Is Red,” the anthem that most Chinese citizens learned by heart in the 1960s. He cleared his throat and sang the words in Mandarin with no hesitation, even though it had been decades since he had last done this.

多年前,我们吃完晚饭后在我儿时的家里闲坐,他告诉我,他仍然记得《东方红》的歌词,那是上世纪60年代大多数中国公民熟记在心的赞歌。他清了清嗓子,毫不犹豫地用普通话唱了起来,尽管已经有几十年没唱。

The east is red, the sun is rising

 东方红,太阳升

From China comes Mao Zedong

 中国出了个毛泽东

He strives for the people’s happiness

 他为人民谋幸福

Hurrah, he is the people’s great savior!

 呼儿嘿呦,他是人民大救星!

After he finished, he sat back on the couch and gave me a faint smile. At that moment, he was again the young man in a tan uniform with a red star on his cap riding a horse through the high valleys of the northwest, there at the edge of empire.

一曲唱完,他靠在沙发上,对我微微一笑。在那一刻,他又变成了那个身穿褐色制服、帽子上点缀着一颗红星的年轻人,纵马驰骋在帝国西北边陲的高山峡谷之中。

DAMIEN CAVE

2024年6月24日

俄罗斯总统普京周四在越南河内。 Pool photo by Manan Vatsyayana

Four days in Asia. That’s all President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to anger Washington, undermine Beijing and rattle a collection of Indo-Pacific nations already scrambling to cope with a jumbled world order.

四天的亚洲之行。俄罗斯总统普京仅用四天就激怒了华盛顿,削弱了北京的影响力,并且让一些已经手忙脚乱应对混乱世界秩序的印太地区国家紧张不已。

After stops in Pyongyang and Hanoi this week that were draped in Communist red, Mr. Putin left behind a redrawn map of risk in Asia. North Korea sat at the center: a rogue nuclear state that regularly threatens its neighbors, suddenly empowered by Russian promises of sophisticated military aid and a mutual defense pact.

在本周访问了红色共产主义之都平壤跟河内后,普京留下了一张重新绘制的亚洲风险地图。位于地图中心的是朝鲜:一个经常威胁邻国的无赖核国家,突然因俄罗斯承诺提供尖端军事援助和签订共同防御条约而气势大涨。

Mr. Putin also signed at least a dozen deals with Vietnam — a country of growing importance for both China and the United States as they vie for influence — where he insisted that “reliable security architecture” could not be built with “closed military-political blocs.”

普京还与越南签署了至少十几份协议——在中美两国争夺影响力之际,越南对它们的重要性与日俱增——他坚持认为,“封闭的军事政治集团”无法建立“可靠的安全架构”。

The trip was both defiant and disruptive. It showed that the jockeying for power sometimes framed as a new Cold War between the United States and China is less binary than it might seem, and many countries in the region seemed to emerge from the week with a deeper sense of unease.

这次访问既是挑衅性的,也是破坏性的。它表明,有时被称为中美新“冷战”的权力争夺并不像看上去那般二元对立,而且该地区许多国家似乎在这一周之后感受到了更深的不安。

Mr. Putin’s presence and his threats, bold one minute, vague the next, have added even more complexity to their already difficult calculations around security and Great Power competition.

普京的来访,以及他时而肆无忌惮、时而含糊其辞的威胁使得这些国家在围绕安全和大国竞争方面已经不容易的算计变得更加复杂。

22asia russia assess 02 kqbj master1050朝鲜民众浏览有关普京到访的新闻,上周四摄于平壤。

Over the past few years, the Indo-Pacific has been knocked around by a geopolitical shoving match between the United States and China, primarily over China’s claims on Taiwan, and increasingly over heightened Chinese militarization in the South China Sea.

在过去几年里,主要围绕中国对台湾的主权要求,以及中国在南中国海的军事化程度日益加剧等问题,印太地区一直深受美中地缘政治角力的影响。

In May, China launched two days of intense navy and air force drills around Taiwan in what it called a form of “strong punishment.” The exercises came after Taiwan’s new president pledged to defend the sovereignty of the self-governing island that Beijing sees as lost territory.

今年5月,中国在台湾周边进行了为期两天的海军和空军密集演习,并称之为“严厉惩戒”。军演是在台湾新总统承诺捍卫该自治岛屿的主权之后举行的,北京视台湾为脱离在外的领土。

Just this week, another flashpoint — the South China Sea — edged closer to conflict. After months of bitter standoffs in the middle of a turquoise choke point for global trade, a Philippine Navy sailor was injured Monday after ships from China and the Philippines collided near a disputed archipelago. Widening the potential ramifications, the Philippines is an ally the United States is treaty-bound to help in case of war.

就在上周,另一个易燃点——南中国海——濒临冲突。在全球贸易的青蓝色“咽喉”,经过数月的激烈对峙,中国和菲律宾的船只周一在一个有争议群岛附近相撞,造成一名菲律宾海军水兵受伤。根据条约,美国有义务在战争爆发的情况下帮助盟友菲律宾,这扩大了该事件的潜在影响。

22asia putin assess kfmz master1050菲律宾军方发布的一张照片,显示中国海警周一在南中国海与菲律宾海军船发生冲突。

Many countries in the region were already beefing up their militaries to deal with China’s pressure and the uncertainty over how far the rivalry between the United States and China might go.

该地区的许多国家已经在加强军力,以应对来自中国的压力,以及中美竞争可能发展到何种程度的不确定性。

Add to those concerns a wave of jitters in the region over the U.S. presidential election, not to mention a new report this month showing that China is in the midst of a “significant” expansion of its nuclear capabilities, and headaches have become common in the region’s foreign policy circles.

除了这些担忧之外,美国总统大选也在该地区掀起了一股不安情绪,更不用说本月的一份新报告显示中国正在“大幅”增强核能力一事了。对该地区的外交政策圈子来说,感到头疼已经司空见惯。

Now Mr. Putin has induced a few more. With his embrace of North Korea, including his open threat to better arm Kim Jong-un’s military, he has effectively added another potential crisis to Asia’s list of concerns, reigniting old hostilities on the Korean Peninsula.

现在,普京又制造了一些新的令人头疼的问题。随着他支持朝鲜,包括公开威胁要为金正恩的军队提供更强大的武器,他实际上给亚洲的关切事项列表上又增添了一个潜在危机,重新点燃了朝鲜半岛的敌对情绪。

Officials in South Korea and Japan — North Korea’s avowed enemies — were especially alarmed. Both countries had already been talking about toughening their defenses and growing closer to the United States and each other, particularly since Mr. Kim’s rhetoric has become markedly more hostile toward them in recent months.

作为朝鲜的公开敌人,韩国和日本的官员尤为担忧。这两个国家已经在讨论加强防御,并加强了彼此之间以及与美国的合作,特别是金正恩的言论近几个月明显变得对它们更加敌视。

Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, described Mr. Putin’s burst of activity in Asia as “your worst fears come true.”

按照美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔的说法,普京在亚洲的活动是“你最担心的事成真了”。

“What Russia just did is they told us they are going to be the principal organizers of rogue states that develop nuclear weapons, violate nonproliferation treaties, and allow countries under U.N. sanctions to get outside those sanctions,” he said.

他说:“俄罗斯刚刚做的就是告诉我们,它将成为那些发展核武器、违反不扩散条约的流氓国家的主要组织者,并且允许受联合国制裁的国家摆脱制裁的影响。”

Peter Tesch, Australia’s ambassador in Moscow from 2016 to 2019, stressed that Mr. Putin favors keeping the world chaotic because he believes Russia benefits from keeping other countries off-kilter. Disinformation and partnerships with other provocateurs have become Putin doctrine.

2016年至2019年担任澳大利亚驻莫斯科大使的彼得·特施强调,普京乐于让世界保持混乱,因为他认为俄罗斯可以从让其他国家陷入混乱中获益。虚假信息和与其他挑衅者合作已成为普京的处事原则。

“He’s quite happy for Russia to be the smelliest, farting uncle at the barbecue,” Mr. Tesch said. “The signal is, ‘Yes I am a disrupter. I can act in ways that increase the complexity of what you’re trying to manage.’”

“他很乐意让俄罗斯成为那个在大家一起烤肉的时候最臭、最爱放屁的大叔。”特施说。“他发出的信号是,‘是的,我是搞破坏的。我能把你努力想管好的事情弄得更复杂。’”

22asia russia assess 03 kqbj master1050俄罗斯官方媒体发布的照片显示,普京和金正恩上周三在平壤一起乘坐豪华轿车。

China, North Korea’s largest trading partner and arguably its biggest influence, must also contend with the fallout. That could include pressure to clarify what its “no limits” friendship with Russia means for China’s stated goal of stability on the Korean Peninsula.

作为朝鲜最大的贸易伙伴,可以说对其拥有最大影响力的国家,中国也必须应对这些后果。这可能包括承受压力,澄清中俄“无止境”友谊对其宣称的稳定朝鲜半岛的目标意味着什么。

Some analysts suggest Mr. Putin had all of this in mind. He may have tightened the bond with Mr. Kim, who greeted him with hugs at the airport, to both scare the United States and signal frustration to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for not doing more to help Russia win in Ukraine.

一些分析人士认为,普京考虑到了这一切。他加强与金正恩的联系(后者在机场以拥抱迎接他),这可能既是为了吓唬美国,也是为了向中国领导人习近平表示不满,因为习近平没有采取更多行动帮助俄罗斯在乌克兰取得胜利。

“If Putin cannot get everything he wants from Beijing, he will look to get it elsewhere, and there aren’t a lot of supermarkets that cover his wish list — arms, labor and a willingness to pick a fight with Washington,” said Samuel Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London. “Iran is one. North Korea is another.”

“如果普京不能从北京得到他想要的一切,他就会试图从其他地方得到,而能够满足他的愿望清单(武器、劳动力、愿意与华盛顿挑起争端)的地方并不多,”伦敦国王学院俄罗斯政治学教授塞缪尔·格林说。“伊朗是一个。朝鲜是另一个。”

“The point is that, while Putin recognizes his dependency on China, he can’t afford to let Beijing dictate the course of the war effort — because as goes the war, so goes Putin.”

“问题在于,虽然普京认识得到他对中国的依赖,但他不能让北京主宰战争的进程,因为战争走向何方普京就走向何方。”

To some degree, Mr. Putin’s trip to Asia was also a potent reminder of Russia’s historic military ties: North Korea, India, and Vietnam are just a few of the countries that have been heavily dependent on Russian hardware for decades, creating links in training and maintenance that keep Moscow deeply embedded in the region.

在某种程度上,普京的亚洲之行也是对俄罗斯历史性军事联系的有力提醒:几十年来,朝鲜、印度和越南等国一直严重依赖俄罗斯的武器装备,形成了训练和维护方面的联系,使莫斯科深深扎根于该地区。

But even before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, those ties were fraying: Russia’s arms sales to Southeast Asia dropped to $89 million in 2021, down from $1.2 billion in 2014, according to independent studies. A clean break or even significant diversification is what Mr. Putin has sought to delay.

但是,即使在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前,这些关系就已经出现了松动:根据独立研究,俄罗斯对东南亚的军售从2014年的12亿美元降至2021年的8900万美元。普京一直试图推迟这些关系的中断,抑或出现大幅多元化。

And if Mr. Putin’s gestures toward North Korea do end up fueling an arms race in Asia, Moscow also stands to gain: Weapons from Russia do not just intensify the risk of chaos when shared with a country like North Korea. They also bring in revenue, much needed for a Russian economy that has been squeezed by sanctions, war, inflation and 16 percent interest rates.

如果普京对朝鲜的姿态最终助长了亚洲的军备竞赛,莫斯科也将从中获益:与朝鲜这样的国家共享俄罗斯武器不仅会加剧混乱的风险,还能带来收入,而这正是受制裁、战争、通货膨胀和16%利率所困扰的俄罗斯经济所急需的。

Mr. Putin’s visit to Hanoi focused on deals. The full scope of what was agreed is not clear, but analysts predicted that some would probably emerge later as defense-related, with financing devised to skirt international sanctions — possibly with payment in the form of oil and gas rights in the South China Sea.

普京此次河内之行的重点是达成协议。目前尚不清楚达成的全部内容,但分析人士预测,其中一些协议可能日后会被证明与国防有关,其融资设计可以规避国际制裁——可能会以南中国海的石油和天然气开采权的形式进行支付。

22asia russia assess 04 kqbj master1050普京访问河内期间,记者上周四摄于胡志明陵外。

“Vietnam hasn’t made a major upgrade to its land forces in years, but supposedly that’s coming,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at Rand. “You may see Vietnam purchase new Russian tanks.”

“越南多年来一直没有对陆军进行重大升级,但据说这种升级即将到来,”兰德公司高级防务分析师德里克·格罗斯曼表示。“你可能会看到越南购买新的俄罗斯坦克。”

Nguyen The Phuong, who studies Vietnam’s military affairs at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said Vietnam also needs new fighter jets and bigger warships in line with what Beijing uses to mark territory that Hanoi also claims in the South China Sea.

澳大利亚新南威尔士大学研究越南军事事务的阮世芳(音)认为,越南还需要与北京的装备相当的新战斗机和更大的军舰,北京用它们来标示与越南存在争议的南海领土。

He added that the high-stakes security dynamics in Asia have put countries like Vietnam in a bind. “Western weapons are expensive and politically sensitive,” he said.

他还指出,亚洲高风险的安全态势已使越南等国陷入困境。“西方武器既昂贵又具有政治敏感性,”他说。

But would Vietnam use new Russian vessels to stand up to China over oil deposits explored with Moscow’s help and claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi?

但是,越南是否会利用新的俄罗斯设备来对抗中国,争夺正在与莫斯科合作勘探、北京和河内都声称拥有的石油储藏?

For many countries, the Putin tour has raised another round of such aggravating questions. Beijing has clearly sided with Moscow over the war in Ukraine. In May, Mr. Putin visited Beijing, and while his trip to North Korea may bother Mr. Xi, analysts do not expect a major rupture in the relationship.

对许多国家来说,普京之行又提出了新一轮此类令人不快的问题。在乌克兰战争问题上,北京显然站在莫斯科一边。普京今年5月访问了北京,虽然他的朝鲜之行可能会让习近平感到不快,但分析人士预计两国关系不会出现重大裂痕。

Angering one leader may risk punishment from another, or both.

激怒两位领导人中的一个可能会招致另一人或两人共同的惩罚。

“I think there’s some concern about Russia-China ties strengthening,” Mr. Grossman said, “and the potential for both countries to gang up on the smaller and medium-sized ones.”

“我认为,人们对中俄关系的加强有些担忧,”罗斯曼表示。“担心两国有可能联合起来对付中小国家。”

At a defense conference in Singapore this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that was already happening. He accused China and Russia of colluding to undermine a peace summit in Switzerland led by Ukraine last week. Only a handful of Asian countries attended.

本月在新加坡举行的一次防务会议上,乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示,这种情况已经发生了。他指责中国和俄罗斯串通一气,破坏上周由乌克兰牵头在瑞士举行的和平峰会。只有少数几个亚洲国家出席了该峰会。

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年6月24日

大众汽车和上汽集团在上海的合资企业生产电动汽车和汽油车。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

With billions of dollars in trade at stake, China and the European Union have agreed to engage in talks to try to resolve an escalating dispute over tariffs.

由于关系到数十亿美元的贸易,中国和欧盟同意进行谈判,试图解决不断升级的关税争端。

China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, and Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Union trade commissioner, will hold discussions on the European Union’s plan for tariffs on electric cars from China, the Chinese commerce ministry said late Saturday.

中国商务部周六晚间表示,部长王文涛与欧盟贸易委员瓦尔迪斯·东布罗夫斯基斯商定,将就欧盟对华电动汽车征收关税启动磋商。

Hours earlier, Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice chancellor and economic minister, said that the European Union was willing to hold consultations, and he expressed a hope that tariffs could be avoided.

在数小时前,德国副总理兼经济部部长罗伯特·哈贝克表示,欧盟愿意进行磋商,并表示希望可以避免征收关税。

This month, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, proposed tariffs of up to 38 percent on electric cars from China, atop an existing 10 percent tariff on imported cars. The commission said it found that China’s electric car sector was heavily subsidized by the government and state-controlled banking system. China’s exports of electric vehicles pose a growing challenge to Europe’s automakers.

本月,欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会提出,将对来自中国的电动汽车在现有10%的进口关税基础上加征最高38%的关税。欧盟委员会表示,它发现中国的电动汽车行业获得了政府和国家控制的银行系统的大量补贴。中国的电动汽车出口对欧洲汽车制造商构成了越来越大的挑战。

Mr. Habeck, speaking in Shanghai after meetings in Beijing, defended the tariffs. “These tariffs are not punitive,” he said, adding that the tariffs are intended to offset subsidies that violate World Trade Organization rules.

哈贝克在上海为欧盟加征关税进行了辩护。之前,他在北京与中方举行了会晤。他说“这些关税并不是惩罚性的”,并且指出它们是为了抵消违反世界贸易组织规则的补贴。

It is unclear what a possible trade deal might look like. Executives at Volkswagen and other European automakers have called for Chinese manufacturers to build cars in Europe with European workers earning European wages, instead of importing cars from China.

目前尚不清楚双方会达成怎样的贸易协议。大众汽车和其他欧洲车企的高管呼吁中国制造商在欧洲生产汽车,聘用欧洲工人,付他们欧洲标准的薪水,而不是从中国进口汽车。

But Chinese automakers have already built dozens of electric car factories in China with what the European Union describes as extensive subsidies, and are still building more factories.

但中国汽车制造商已经在中国建立了数十家电动汽车工厂,获得了欧盟所说的大量补贴,而且仍在继续建设更多的工厂。

Before agreeing late Saturday to talks, Mr. Wang, China’s commerce minister, who had met with Mr. Habeck, accused the European Union of violating W.T.O. rules.

在周六晚些时候同意举行磋商之前,中国商务部部长王文涛在与哈贝克举行会晤时指责欧盟违反了世界贸易组织规则。

The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, said in a statement that “China will take all measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies.” It added that the tariffs were inconsistent with international efforts to address climate change.

中国最高经济规划机构——国家发展和改革委员会在一份声明中表示,“中国将采取一切措施维护中国企业的合法权益,”并称这些关税与应对气候变化的国际努力不一致。

The tariffs would put Germany in a tricky position. German automakers have extensive operations in China and worry that they will be hurt by retaliatory trade actions by Beijing.

这些关税将把德国置于一个棘手的境地。德国车企在中国拥有广泛的业务,它们担心自己会受到北京政府报复性贸易行动的伤害。

On Saturday in Beijing, Mr. Habeck visited several Chinese economic ministries but did not meet with Premier Li Qiang, China’s No. 2 official. Mr. Habeck then flew to Shanghai to hold a news conference and meet with German businesses leaders there. He declined to comment on why he had not met Mr. Li, who in some ways is his counterpart.

周六,哈贝克在北京拜访了多个经济相关部委,但没有与中国二号人物国务院总理李强会面。随后,哈贝克飞往上海举行新闻发布会,并会见了上海的德企负责人。对于为何没有见到李强,他拒绝予以评论,两人在某些层面上属于对等官员。

Mr. Habeck criticized China for supplying Russia with goods that have both civilian and military applications for its war on Ukraine. China’s trade with Russia increased more than 40 percent last year, and half of the increase was related to these dual-use goods, he said.

哈贝克批评中国向俄罗斯提供用于乌克兰战争的军民两用产品。他说,去年中俄贸易增长了逾40%,其中一半与这些军民两用产品有关。

“These are technical goods that can be used on the battlefield, and this has to stop,” he said.

他说:“这些都是可以用于战场的技术产品,这种情况必须停止。”

But the focus of Mr. Habeck’s trip was the trade dispute. He visited a BMW research center in Shanghai on Sunday before heading to nearby Hangzhou, a tech hub.

但哈贝克此行的重点是贸易争端。他在周日参观了宝马上海研发中心,然后前往附近的科技中心城市杭州。

World Trade Organization rules allow tariffs intended to offset the effects of subsidies. For its part, China denies that it improperly subsidizes its electric vehicle companies and says that its leading role in the industry worldwide is a result of efficient manufacturing and innovation.

世界贸易组织的规则允许征收旨在抵消补贴影响的关税。中国方面否认对本国电动汽车企业提供不当补贴,并表示它在全球电动汽车行业的领先地位是高效制造和创新的结果。

Anticipating the tariffs, China’s commerce ministry in January took the first steps toward imposing tariffs on imports of Cognac and other wine-based spirits, produced mainly by France, one of the countries that has led calls for tariffs on China’s electric cars. On Monday, China’s commerce ministry threatened to impose tariffs on pork imports from Europe.

预计到这些关税的出台,中国商务部在1月已采取了第一步措施,对主要来自法国的干邑白兰地和其他欧洲葡萄酒烈酒的进口立案调查。法国是带头呼吁对中国的电动汽车征收关税的国家之一。周一,中国商务部威胁要对欧洲进口的猪肉征收关税。

And state-controlled media in China has reported in the past week that the Chinese auto industry is asking the commerce ministry to impose tariffs on imports of gasoline-powered cars from Europe, a move that would chiefly affect German automakers.

中国官方媒体上周报道称,中国汽车行业正要求商务部对从欧洲进口的汽油动力汽车征收关税,此举将主要影响德国汽车制造商。

Mr. Wang, the commerce minister, called on Germany to help end the European Union’s tariffs. “It is hoped that Germany will play an active role in the E.U. and promote the E.U. and China to move toward each other,” the ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

商务部部长王文涛呼吁德国帮助终止欧盟的关税。“希望德方在欧盟内发挥积极作用,推动欧方与中方相向而行,”中国商务部在周六的声明中表示。

China, the world’s largest car market, has nearly halved its imports of German cars in the past five years as its domestic automakers have become increasingly competitive. China’s car companies dominate the worldwide production of electric and plug-in hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles, which now nearly match sales of gasoline-powered cars in China.

中国是全球最大的汽车市场,随着国内车企的竞争力日益增强,中国在过去五年从德国进口的汽车数量减少了近一半。中国车企主导着全球电动和插电式油电混合动力汽车的生产,目前这两种汽车在中国的销量几乎与汽油动力汽车的销量相当。

But many of China’s wealthiest customers still covet German brands. Mercedes sells more of its most luxurious cars, German-built Maybachs, in China than in the rest of the world combined.

但许多中国最富有的消费者仍然热衷德国品牌。梅赛德斯在中国销售的最豪华汽车——在德国生产的迈巴赫,销量超过了全球其他地区的总和。

German automakers also have joint ventures with Chinese companies to assemble cars in China. Volkswagen is making further large investments in manufacturing and engineering in China while beginning to cut staff in Germany.

德国车企还与中国车企公司建立合资企业,在中国组装汽车。大众汽车正在进一步加大在中国的制造和工程投资,同时在德国开始裁员。

22China Germany flgc master1050周六,德国副总理兼经济部部长罗伯特·哈贝克在北京与中国商务部部长王文涛、国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁举行了会晤。

Germany is crucial to China’s efforts to stop the new European tariffs from being finalized this fall. That was also the case the last time that China and Europe engaged in a major trade dispute.

德国对于中国阻止今年秋天最终敲定欧洲新关税的努力至关重要。中欧上一次发生重大贸易争端时,情况也是如此。

In 2013, under pressure from China, Germany rallied European governments to overturn proposed European Commission tariffs on solar panels from China. Chinese solar panel manufacturers quickly swamped Europe, and the European industry collapsed.

2013年,在中国的压力下,德国召集欧洲各国政府推翻了欧盟委员会对中国太阳能电池板征收关税的提议。中国太阳能电池板制造商迅速涌入欧洲市场,导致欧洲相关产业的崩溃。

Leaders in Europe pushing for tariffs on China’s electric vehicles argue that Europe’s car industry now faces a similarly dire threat.

推动对中国电动汽车征收关税的欧洲领导人认为,欧洲的汽车工业现在面临着类似的严峻威胁。

To block the tariffs, Beijing would need to persuade a majority of European Union countries, representing at least 65 percent of the bloc’s population, to overrule the European Commission.

要阻止这些关税,北京需要说服占欧盟人口至少65%的大多数欧盟国家否决欧盟委员会的决定。

In its response to Europe’s tariffs, China is expected to target key countries, analysts said.

分析人士表示,在对欧洲关税的回应中,中国预计将瞄准关键国家。

Possible tariffs on gasoline-powered cars would hit Germany, the bloc’s most populous country, with 19 percent of the union’s people. Italy is third in population and it, too, exports luxury gasoline-powered vehicles to China — Ferrari and Lamborghini sports cars.

对汽油动力汽车可能征收的关税将打击德国,它是欧盟人口最多的国家,占欧盟的19%。向中国出口法拉利和兰博基尼跑车等豪华汽油动力汽车的意大利排在第三。

France is Europe’s second-most populous country, and China’s potential Cognac tariffs are aimed at one of its national symbols.

法国是欧洲人口第二多的国家,中国可能对干邑征收的关税针对的是法国的国家象征之一。

Spain, the fourth-most populous country in Europe, is the leading European exporter of pork to China, a product Beijing has also threatened to penalize.

西班牙是欧洲人口排名第四的国家,也是向中国出口猪肉最多的欧洲国家,北京方面也威胁要对这一产品征收关税。

Beijing allowed German automakers, led by Volkswagen, to open car factories with Chinese manufacturers in the 1980s, bypassing China’s 100 percent tariffs then on imported cars. China cut tariffs on imported cars to 25 percent in the years after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and in 2018 further reduced tariffs on most imported cars to 15 percent in a move to ease trade tensions with the United States during the Trump administration.

上世纪80年代,北京允许以大众汽车为首的德国车企与中国车企合资建厂,绕开了当时中国对进口汽车征收的100%关税。在2001年加入世界贸易组织后的几年里,中国将进口汽车的关税降至25%,并在2018年进一步将大多数进口汽车的关税降至15%,此举是为了缓解特朗普时代中美贸易紧张关系

In addition to the 15 percent tariff, China also collects a 10 percent tax from buyers of gasoline-powered cars. Cars and sport utility vehicles with very large gasoline engines, which are mainly imported, pay an additional tax of 40 percent.

除了15%的关税外,中国还向汽油动力汽车的购买者征收10%的税。配备大排量发动机的轿车和SUV主要来自进口,对它们要额外征收40%的税。

JACK NICAS

2024年6月21日

巴西亚马孙地区,马鲁博人的玛纳基阿维村里卫星接收天线。 Victor Moriyama for The New York Times

As the speeches dragged on, eyes drifted to screens. Teenagers scrolled Instagram. One man texted his girlfriend. And men crowded around a phone streaming a soccer match while the group’s first female leader spoke.

随着演讲的进行,人们的目光转向屏幕。年轻人刷着Instagram。一个男人在给女朋友发短信。当该组织的第一位女性领导人讲话时,男人们围着一部手机看足球比赛直播。

Just about anywhere, a scene like this would be mundane. But this was happening in a remote Indigenous village in one of the most isolated stretches of the planet.

在任何地方,这样一幕都是很普通的。但这发生在一个偏远的土著村庄,在地球上最与世隔绝的地区之一。

The Marubo people have long lived in communal huts scattered hundreds of miles along the Ituí River deep in the Amazon rainforest. They speak their own language, take ayahuasca to connect with forest spirits and trap spider monkeys to make soup or keep as pets.

马鲁博人长期居住在亚马孙雨林深处,散布在伊图伊河沿岸数百公里的共有小屋中。他们说自己的语言,服用死藤水与森林精灵沟通,捕捉蜘蛛猴做汤或当做宠物。

They have preserved this way of life for hundreds of years through isolation — some villages can take a week to reach. But since September, the Marubo have had high-speed internet thanks to Elon Musk.

他们与世隔绝,几百年来一直保持着这种生活方式——有些村庄需要一周的时间才能到达。但自去年9月以来,由于埃隆·马斯克,马鲁博人拥有了高速互联网。

The 2,000-member tribe is one of hundreds across Brazil that are suddenly logging on with Starlink, the satellite-internet service from Space X, Mr. Musk’s private space company. Since its entry into Brazil in 2022, Starlink has swept across the world’s largest rainforest, bringing the web to one of the last offline places on Earth.

这个2000人的部落是巴西各地数百个部落中的一个,他们突然开始使用马斯克的私人太空公司SpaceX提供的卫星互联网服务星链。自2022年进入巴西以来,星链已经席卷了世界上最大的雨林,将网络带到地球上最后的离线地区之一。

The New York Times traveled deep into the Amazon to visit Marubo villages to understand what happens when a tiny, closed civilization suddenly opens to the world.

《纽约时报》深入亚马孙,走访了马鲁博村庄,试图了解一个封闭的小文明突然向世界开放时会发生什么。

00brazil starlink lhjz master1050自从他们村庄有了星链以来,许多马鲁博人都注册了 Facebook和Instagram账户。00brazil starlink whzk master1050马鲁博人经常使用手机。村里有了卫星接收天线后,他们在距离最近的城市买了手机。

“When it arrived, everyone was happy,” said Tsainama Marubo, 73, sitting on the dirt floor of her village’s maloca, a 50-foot-tall hut where the Marubo sleep, cook and eat together. The internet brought clear benefits, like video chats with faraway loved ones and calls for help in emergencies. “But now, things have gotten worse,” she said.

“当它到来的时候,每个人都很高兴,”73岁的提纳玛·马鲁博说,她坐在村中“马洛卡”的泥地板上,“马洛卡”是一种约15米高的小屋,他们一家人在这里睡觉、做饭和吃饭。互联网带来了明显的好处,比如与远方的亲人视频聊天,以及在紧急情况下寻求帮助。“但现在,情况变得更糟了,”她说。

The Marubo are struggling with the internet’s fundamental dilemma: It has become essential — at a cost.

马鲁博人正努力应对互联网的根本困境:它已经变得必不可少——但这是有代价的。

After only nine months with Starlink, the Marubo are already grappling with the same challenges that have racked American households for years: teenagers glued to phones; group chats full of gossip; addictive social networks; online strangers; violent video games; scams; misinformation; and minors watching pornography.

在与星链合作仅九个月后,马鲁博人已经开始应对困扰美国家庭多年的同样挑战:青少年沉迷手机;群聊里充满流言蜚语;社交网络让人上瘾;网上的陌生人;暴力电子游戏;诈骗;不实信息;未成年人看色情内容。

Modern society has dealt with these issues over decades as the internet continued its relentless march. The Marubo and other Indigenous tribes, who have resisted modernity for generations, are now confronting the internet’s potential and peril all at once, while debating what it will mean for their identity and culture.

随着互联网的不断发展,现代社会几十年来一直在应对这些问题。在马鲁博和其他土著部落,几代人以来,人们一直抵制现代化,现在他们同时面对互联网的潜力和危险,还要它对他们的身份和文化来说意味着什么。

That debate has arrived now because of Starlink, which has quickly dominated the satellite-internet market worldwide by providing service once unthinkable in such remote areas. SpaceX has done so by launching 6,000 low-orbiting Starlink satellites — roughly 60 percent of all active spacecraft — to deliver speeds faster than many home internet connections to just about anywhere on Earth, including the Sahara, the Mongolian grasslands and tiny Pacific islands.

由于星链的出现,这场争论现在已经到来。通过在如此偏远的地区提供曾经无法想象的服务,星链迅速主导了全球卫星互联网市场。SpaceX已经发射了6000颗低轨道星链卫星(约占所有在运行的航天器的60%),为地球上几乎任何地方提供比许多家庭互联网更快的速度,包括在撒哈拉沙漠、蒙古草原和太平洋小岛。

But perhaps Starlink’s most transformative effect is in areas once largely out of the internet’s reach, like the Amazon. There are now 66,000 active contracts in the Brazilian Amazon, touching 93 percent of the region’s legal municipalities. That has opened new job and education opportunities for those who live in the forest. It has also given illegal loggers and miners in the Amazon a new tool to communicate and evade authorities.

但是,也许星链最具变革性的影响发生在那些曾经基本上不在互联网覆盖范围之内的地区,比如亚马孙。目前,巴西亚马孙地区有6.6万份有效合同,涉及该地区93%的法定市镇。这为那些生活在森林里的人提供了新的工作和教育机会。它还为亚马孙地区的非法伐木者和采矿者提供了一种通讯和逃避当局的新工具

00brazil starlink mgvj master1050搬运星链卫星接收天线的马鲁博人停下来休息,吃着木瓜。02brazil starlink tribe 11 master1050贾瓦里山谷原住民领地,这里是马鲁博人居住的地方,也是地球上最为与世隔绝的地方之一。

One Marubo leader, Enoque Marubo (all Marubo use the same surname), 40, said he immediately saw Starlink’s potential. After spending years outside the forest, he said he believed the internet could give his people new autonomy. With it, they could communicate better, inform themselves and tell their own stories.

马鲁博的一位首领、40岁的伊诺克·马鲁博(所有马鲁博人都使用同一个姓)说,他立即看到了星链的潜力。在离开丛林多年后,他说他相信互联网可以给他的人民带来新的自主权。有了它,他们可以更好地沟通,了解自己,讲述自己的故事。

Last year, he and a Brazilian activist recorded a 50-second video seeking help getting Starlink from potential benefactors. He wore his traditional Marubo headdress and sat in the maloca. A toddler wearing a necklace of animal teeth sat nearby.

去年,他和一名巴西活动人士录制了一段50秒的视频,寻求潜在捐助者帮助他们获得星链的连接。视频中他戴着传统的马鲁博头饰,坐在马洛卡里。一个戴着动物牙齿项链的小孩坐在他旁边。

They sent it off. Days later, they heard back from a woman in Oklahoma.

他们把视频发了出去。几天后,他们收到了俄克拉荷马州一位女士的回复。

The Tribe

部落

The Javari Valley Indigenous Territory is one of the most isolated places on Earth, a dense stretch of rainforest the size of Portugal with no roads and a maze of waterways. Nineteen of the 26 tribes in the Javari Valley live in full isolation, the highest concentration in the world.

哈瓦里河谷原住民领地是地球上最为与世隔绝的地方之一,这片茂密的雨林面积与葡萄牙相当,没有道路,只有迷宫般的水道。哈瓦里山谷有26个部落,是世界上最密集的部落群,其中有19个完全与外界隔绝。

02brazil starlink tribe master1050伊诺克·马鲁博正在村里安装星链卫星接收天线。00brazil starlink bjzk master1050伊诺克辗转于丛林和城市,曾经做过可口可乐的平面设计师。

The Marubo were once uncontacted, too, roaming the forest for hundreds of years, until rubber tappers arrived near the end of the 19th century. That led to decades of violence and disease — and the arrival of new customs and technology. The Marubo began wearing clothes. Some learned Portuguese. They swapped bows for firearms to hunt wild boar, and machetes for chain saws to clear plots for cassava.

马鲁博人也曾经与世隔绝,在丛林里游荡了几百年,直到19世纪末采集橡胶的人来到这里。由此而来的是数十年的暴力和疾病,同时也带来了新的习俗和技术。马鲁博人开始穿衣服。一些人学习葡萄牙语。他们把弓箭换成了猎枪来猎杀野猪,把砍刀换成了链锯来清理木薯地。

One family in particular pushed this change. In the 1960s, Sebastião Marubo was one of the first Marubo to live outside the forest. When he returned, he brought another new technology: the boat motor. It cut trips from weeks to days.

有一个家庭尤其在推动这一变化。在20世纪60年代,塞巴斯蒂昂·马鲁博是第一批在丛林之外生活的马鲁博之一。他回来时带来了另一项新技术:船舶发动机。它可以把几周的行程缩短到几天。

His son Enoque emerged as a leader of the next generation, eager to pull his tribe into the future. Enoque has split his life between the forest and the city, working at one point as a graphic designer for Coca-Cola. So when Marubo leaders became interested in getting internet connections, they went to him to ask how.

他的儿子伊诺克成为了下一代领袖,渴望带领部落走向未来。伊诺克辗转于丛林和城市,曾经做过可口可乐的平面设计师。所以当马鲁博人的首领对接入互联网感兴趣时,他们就去找他询问。

Enoque got his answer when Mr. Musk came to Brazil. In 2022, the SpaceX owner and Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president at the time, announced Starlink’s arrival in front of a screen that said, “Connecting the Amazon.”

马斯克来到巴西后,伊诺克有了答案。2022年,这位SpaceX的所有者和时任巴西总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在写着“连接亚马孙”的屏幕前宣布了星链的到来。

Enoque and Flora Dutra, a Brazilian activist who works with Indigenous tribes, sent letters to more than 100 members of Congress asking for Starlink. None responded.

伊诺克和与原住民部落合作的巴西活动人士弗洛拉·杜特拉向100多名国会议员致信,要求获得星链,但没有回应。

Then early last year, Ms. Dutra saw an American woman speak at a space conference. Ms. Dutra checked the woman’s Facebook page and saw her posing outside SpaceX’s headquarters. “I knew she was the one,” she said.

去年年初,杜特拉看到一位美国女性在一个太空会议上发言。杜特拉查看了她的Facebook页面,看到她在SpaceX总部外拍照。“我知道她就是我要找的人,”她说。

The Benefactor

捐赠者

Allyson Reneau’s LinkedIn page describes her as a space consultant, keynote speaker, author, pilot, equestrian, humanitarian, chief executive, board director and mother of 11 biological children. In person, she says she makes most of her money coaching gymnastics and renting houses near Norman, Okla.

艾莉森·勒诺在领英页面上的描述是太空顾问、主题讲者、作家、飞行员、马术运动员、人道主义者、首席执行官、董事和11个亲生子女的母亲。她说,她本人的大部分收入都来自在俄克拉荷马州诺曼附近做体操教练和出租房屋。

Ms. Reneau said she did not try to help people for fame. “Otherwise, I’d be telling you about all the projects I do all over the world,” she said in an interview. “It’s the look on the face, it’s the hope in the eyes. That’s the trophy.”

勒诺说,她并不是为了出名而帮助别人。“否则,我会告诉你我在世界各地开展的所有项目,”她在接受采访时说。“那是为了脸上的表情,是为了眼睛里的希望。这些就是奖杯。”

She said she had that perspective when she received a video from a stranger last year asking to help connect a remote Amazon tribe.

她说,去年,她从一个陌生人那里收到了一段视频,请求帮助为一个偏远的亚马孙部落建立网络连接,当时她就有了这样的想法。

She had never been to Brazil but thought the return on investment was high. Enoque was asking for 20 Starlink antennas, which would cost roughly $15,000, to transform life for his tribe.

她从未去过巴西,但认为投资回报会很高。伊诺克想要20部星链天线来改变他的部落的生活,大约需要1.5万美元。

Ms. Reneau said she bought the antennas with her own money and donations from her children. Then she booked a flight to go help deliver them.

勒诺说,她用自己的钱和孩子们的捐款买了这些天线。然后她订了机票去帮忙送货。

The Connection

连接

The internet arrived on the backs of men. They trudged miles through the forest, barefoot or in flip-flops, carrying two antennas each.

互联网设备是男人们背进来的,有人光着脚,有人穿着人字拖,在丛林里跋涉数公里,每人背着两部天线。

Just behind were Enoque, Ms. Dutra, Ms. Reneau and a cameraman documenting her journey.

紧随其后的是伊诺克、杜特拉、勒诺和一名记录她这次旅程的摄影师。

The internet was an immediate sensation. “It changed the routine so much that it was detrimental,” Enoque admitted. “In the village, if you don’t hunt, fish and plant, you don’t eat.”

互联网的到来立刻引起了轰动。“这极大地改变了我们的日常生活,以至于产生了有害影响,”伊诺克承认。“在村里,如果你不打猎、不捕鱼、不种菜,就没有饭吃。”

00starlink master1050艾莉森·勒诺(右)已向马鲁博人捐赠了超过20个星链卫星接收天线。00brazil starlink fmgv master1050马鲁博人用好几趟船和数英里的徒步跋涉,将星链运到了村里。

Leaders realized they needed limits. The internet would be switched on for only two hours in the morning, five hours in the evening, and all day Sunday.

部落首领意识到需要限制。他们决定,互联网将只在早上开放两小时,晚上开放五小时,周日全天开放。

The Debate

辩论

Alfredo Marubo, leader of a Marubo association of villages, has emerged as the tribe’s most vocal critic of the internet. The Marubo pass down their history and culture orally, and he worries that knowledge will be lost. “Everyone is so connected that sometimes they don’t even talk to their own family,” he said.

阿尔弗雷多·马鲁博是一个马鲁博村庄联合会的领导人,他已成为部落中对互联网最直言不讳的批评者。马鲁博人以口头方式传承历史和文化,他担心这些知识会流失。“所有人都泡在网上,有时他们甚至不和自己的家人说话,”他说。

He is most unsettled by the pornography. He said young men were sharing explicit videos in group chats, a stunning development for a culture that frowns on kissing in public.

色情内容最令他不安。他说,年轻人在群聊中分享露骨视频,这对于一个不赞成在公共场合接吻的文化来说是一个惊人的变化。

The Future

未来

In April, Ms. Reneau traveled back to the forest. At Enoque’s request, she bought four more antennas. Two were headed to the Korubo, a tribe of less than 150 people that was first contacted in 1996 and still has some members in full isolation.

今年4月,勒诺回到了丛林。在伊诺克的要求下,她又买了四部天线。其中两个被送往科鲁博部落,那是一个人口不到150人的部落,1996年首次与外界接触,至今仍有一些成员完全与世隔绝。

Sitting on a log, eating dried beef and boiled cassava served on the maloca’s dirt floor, Ms. Reneau said she recognized the internet was “a double-edged sword.” So when she posts on Facebook about bringing the Marubo internet, she said, she always stresses that a leader requested it.

勒诺坐在一根原木上,吃着放在马洛卡泥土地面上的干牛肉和煮木薯,她说她意识到互联网是“一把双刃剑”。因此,她说,当她在Facebook上发布给马鲁博带来互联网的消息时,她总是强调,这是应一位当地首领的要求。

“I don’t want people to think I’m bringing this in to force it on them,” she said. She added that she hoped they could “preserve the purity of this incredible culture because once it’s gone, it’s gone.”

“我不想让人们认为我把这些东西带进来是为了强加给他们。”她说。她还说,她希望他们能够“保护这种令人难以置信的文化的纯洁性,因为一旦它消失了,那就是真的消失了”。

Later at that same meal, Enoque’s father, Sebastião, said the tribe’s journey with the internet had been foretold.

饭后,伊诺克的父亲塞巴斯蒂安说,关于部落的互联网之旅,已经有过预言。

00brazil starlink bplm master1050马鲁博人还将太阳能板运到了村里,用来给星链供电。00brazil starlink tczg master1050帮助原住民部落的活动人士弗洛拉·杜特拉(右)与勒诺和伊诺克·马鲁博。

Decades ago, the most respected Marubo shaman had visions of a hand-held device that could connect with the entire world. “It would be for the good of the people,” he said. “But in the end, it wouldn’t be.”

几十年前,一位最受尊敬的马鲁博人巫师设想了一种可以连接整个世界的手持设备。“这将造福人民,”他说。“但最终却并非如此。”

Regardless, he added, going back was no longer an option.

无论如何,他补充说,已经没有办法回到过去。

“The leaders have been clear,” he said. “We can’t live without the internet.”

“首领们已经说得很清楚了,”他说。“我们不能没有互联网。”

MOTOKO RICH, CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年6月21日

朝鲜官方发布的照片​​显示,朝鲜领导人金正恩(右)和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(左)于朝鲜平壤。本周普京对朝鲜进行了访问。 The Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

With ballistic missiles regularly flying nearby, Japan and South Korea need little reminder of the threat that North Korea and its nuclear arsenal pose to its neighbors. But the stunning revival of a Cold War-era mutual defense agreement during a visit this week by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to Pyongyang, the North’s capital, amped up the pressure on some of the hermit kingdom’s closest neighbors.

由于弹道导弹经常在附近飞过,日本和韩国几乎不需要提醒就能意识到朝鲜及其核武库对邻国的威胁。但在俄罗斯总统普京本周访问朝鲜首都平壤期间,一项冷战时期的共同防御协议令人震惊地复活,令这个隐士王国的一些近邻感到压力大增。

Mr. Putin and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, agreed that if one country found itself in a state of war, then the other would provide “military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay,” according to the text of the agreement released Thursday by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.

根据朝鲜官方的朝中社周四公布的协议内容,普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩达成一致:如果一方陷入战争状态,另一方将“毫不拖延地尽其所能提供军事及其他援助”。

Analysts were still sorting through the text of the agreement to understand how far it would extend, either in terms of Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine or any future conflict on the Korean Peninsula. But the pledge, along with indications that Russia could help bolster North Korea’s continuing quest to build its nuclear capabilities, rattled officials in Tokyo and Seoul.

分析人士仍在梳理协议内容,试图厘清无论是对于普京的乌克兰战争还是朝鲜半岛未来的冲突而言,它可能延伸到什么程度。但这一承诺,以及俄罗斯可能帮助朝鲜继续寻求建立核能力的迹象令东京和首尔的官员感到不安。

Mr. Kim has grown increasingly hostile toward South Korea and this year abandoned a longtime goal of reunifying with the South, however unlikely that might have been. Now he describes the South solely as an enemy that must be subjugated, if necessary, through a nuclear war. And he has often tested his ballistic missiles by flying them toward Japan, demonstrating North Korea’s provocative stance toward its former colonizer.

金正恩对韩国的敌意越来越大,今年还放弃了与韩国统一的长期目标,尽管这个目标原本似乎就不太可能。现在,他把韩国视为一个敌人,如有必要,必须通过核战争来征服它。他还经常向日本方向试射弹道导弹,展示朝鲜对这个前殖民者的挑衅姿态。

Mr. Kim’s alliance with Mr. Putin, analysts said, would escalate tensions in northeast Asia by sharpening a divide between the democratic partnership among the United States, South Korea and Japan on the one side, and the autocratic camp of Russia, North Korea and China on the other.

分析人士说,金正恩与普京的联盟会加剧美韩日民主伙伴与俄朝中专制阵营之间的分歧,从而令东北亚的紧张局势升级。

“It is bad news for international efforts to prevent North Korea from advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” said Koh Yu-hwan, former head of the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Unification Studies.

总部位于首尔的韩国统一研究院原院长高有焕表示:“对于阻止朝鲜发展核技术与导弹技术的国际努力来说,这是个坏消息。”

20skorea japan tbvg master1050朝鲜官方媒体发布的一张照片,显示上个月在朝鲜一处未公开的地点进行了战术弹道导弹试射。

Mr. Putin’s protracted war in Ukraine has led him to deepen relations with Mr. Kim. U.S. and South Korean officials say he has sought and received Soviet-grade ammunitions from Pyongyang — accusations that both Moscow and Pyongyang deny.

普京在乌克兰旷日持久的战争促使他加深了与金正恩的关系。美国和韩国官员说,他从平壤寻求并获得了苏式弹药。莫斯科和平壤都否认了这一指控。

The war in Ukraine has loomed large in the region. “The Ukraine of today may be the East Asia of tomorrow,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan has often said.

乌克兰战争已对该地区产生了重大影响。“今天的乌克兰可能就是明天的东亚,”日本首相岸田文雄经常说。

“We are seriously concerned about the fact that President Putin did not rule out military-technical cooperation with North Korea,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, Mr. Kishida’s chief cabinet secretary, said at a news briefing in Tokyo.

“普京总统没有排除与朝鲜进行军事技术合作的可能性,我们对此表示严重关切,”岸田文雄的内阁官房长官林芳正在东京的新闻发布会上说。

South Korea sharply criticized the agreement, saying it was “sophistic and absurd” for North Korea and Russia — which have a history of starting war in the Korean Peninsula and in Ukraine, respectively — to pledge military cooperation under the assumption of coming under attack first.

韩国对这项协议表示强烈批评,称朝鲜和俄罗斯——两国分别在朝鲜半岛和乌克兰有过发动战争的历史——在自己先遭受攻击的假设下承诺进行军事合作,是“诡辩和荒谬的”。

“We emphasize that any cooperation that directly or indirectly helps North Korea strengthen its military power violates U.N. Security Council resolutions and should be subject to international monitoring and sanctions,” the South Korean government said in a statement. It also vowed to strengthen defense cooperation with the United States and Japan to counter the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea.

“我们强调,任何直接或间接帮助朝鲜加强军事力量的合作都违反了联合国安理会的决议,应该受到国际社会的监督和制裁,”韩国政府在声明中表示。它还发誓要加强与美国和日本的防务合作,以应对来自朝鲜的核武器和导弹威胁。

In addition, South Korea planned to “review” its policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons for use in the war with Russia, said Chang Ho-jin, the national security adviser for President Yoon Suk Yeol.

此外,尹锡悦总统的国家安保室长张虎镇表示,韩国将“重新考虑”不向乌克兰提供用于俄罗斯战争的致命武器的政策。

In some respects, the meeting between the two authoritarian leaders, both desperate for outside support, provided a bit of an I-told-you-so moment for the United States and its Asian allies, who have been preparing in recent years for growing security challenges from North Korea as well as China, and sometimes have faced domestic political headwinds for doing so.

从某些方面来说,这两位迫切需要外界支持的威权领导人的会晤,让美国及其亚洲盟友有一种“果不其然”的感觉。近年来,这些国家一直在准备应对来自朝鲜和中国日益严峻的安全挑战,有时还会因此面临国内的政治阻力。

Japan has vowed to increase its defense budget and pushed limits on what it could do under its pacifist Constitution, including purchasing more fighter jets and Tomahawk missiles. After years of frosty relations, Mr. Kishida and Mr. Yoon of South Korea agreed to strengthen bilateral ties between their two countries and have drawn closer in a three-way partnership with the U.S. to forge mutual security arrangements. Over the last year, the three countries have participated in more than 60 trilateral diplomatic meetings, military exercises and intelligence sharing, according to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo.

日本誓言增加国防预算,并在和平宪法的限制范围内扩大行动,包括购买更多战斗机和战斧导弹。在经历了多年的冷淡关系后,岸田文雄和尹锡悦同意加强两国双边关系,并与美国建立了更紧密的三方伙伴关系,以建立共同安全安排。据美国驻东京大使馆称,在过去一年中,这三个国家参与了60多次三边外交会议、军事演习和情报共享。

20skorea japan bzfq master1050去年在日本德之岛举行的军事演习。日本不顾国内反对,誓言要增加国防预算。

“I think it shows how prescient President Biden, President Kishida and President Yoon were to spend political capital,” Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, said in an interview. “It was prescient not just from a political standpoint, but from a strategic standpoint because now Russia and North Korea” may be developing weapons together.

“我认为,这表明拜登总统、岸田文雄总统和尹锡悦总统在动用政治资本时非常有先见之明,”美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔在接受采访时表示。“不仅从政治角度来看很有先见之明,而且从战略角度来看也是如此,因为现在俄罗斯和朝鲜”可能正在共同开发武器。

The revival of a Cold War-era mutual defense pledge between North Korea and Russia in this fraught global moment spooked other countries in the region.

在这个充满危机的全球时刻,朝俄冷战时期共同防御承诺的复活,令该地区的其他国家感到恐慌。

“What I think is more dangerous is that it shows that the relationship will be more long term than perhaps we initially thought and that it may be more strategic than transactional,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow in Asian studies at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. “We don’t know the parameters of how far each country will go in support of each other.”

“我认为更危险的是,这表明两国关系可能比我们最初想象的更长久,而且可能更具战略性,而非交易性质,”华盛顿传统基金会亚洲研究高级研究员布鲁斯·克林纳说。“我们不知道两国在相互支持方面会走多远。”

At the very least, it shows that Russia is willing to flagrantly dismiss U.N. sanctions.

至少,这表明俄罗斯愿意公然无视联合国的制裁。

“It was not that long ago that Russia was backing U.N. sanctions on North Korea,” said James D.J. Brown, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University who specializes in relations between Russia and East Asia. “So it confirms that Russia is not only not implementing sanctions themselves but actively undermining them and will help North Korea to evade sanctions.”

“就在不久之前,俄罗斯还支持联合国对朝鲜的制裁,”天普大学东京校区专门研究俄罗斯与东亚关系的政治学教授詹姆斯·布朗说。“因此,这证实了俄罗斯不仅没有实施制裁,而且还在积极破坏制裁,并将帮助朝鲜逃避制裁。”

20skorea japan jpcg master1050周三,首尔火车站的电视屏幕上播放普京和金正恩握手的画面。

In Seoul, the meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim was likely to revive discussion of whether South Korea should consider arming itself with nuclear weapons as well as start anticipating what might happen if Donald Trump is re-elected president of the United States.

在首尔,普京和金正恩的会晤可能会重启有关韩国是否应该考虑用核武器武装自己的讨论,并让人们开始推测,如果特朗普再次当选美国总统可能会发生什么。

“It is time for South Korea to have a fundamental review of its current security policy, which depends almost totally on the U.S. nuclear umbrella to counter the North Korean nuclear threat,” said Cheong Seong-chang, the director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy at the Sejong Institute.

“韩国现在应该从根本上审视现行的安全政策,因为它几乎完全依赖美国的核保护伞来应对朝鲜的核威胁,”世宗研究所朝鲜半岛战略中心主任郑相昌说。

In one respect, the growing bond between Russia and North Korea could help cement the recently revived ties between Tokyo and Seoul as well as their three-way cooperation with the United States. Many analysts have worried that a change of administration in either the United States or South Korea could endanger these relationships. (Japan is considered relatively stable.)

从某个方面来说,俄罗斯和朝鲜之间日益紧密的联系可能有助于巩固东京和首尔最近恢复的关系,以及它们与美国的三方合作。许多分析人士担心,美国或韩国的政府更迭可能会危及这样的关系。(外界认为日本相对稳定。) 

“In some ways it sets up the justification to continue trilateralism after potentially a Trump administration comes in or if progressives come in Korea,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political analyst who specializes in Japan at the RAND Corporation in Washington. “Even though it doesn’t change what Seoul or Tokyo should be doing, it definitely adds a new factor of what they have to consider.”

“在某种程度上,它为在特朗普上台后,或者进步派在韩国上台后继续实行三边主义提供了理由,”华盛顿兰德公司专门研究日本问题的高级政治分析师杰弗里·霍农说。“尽管这不会改变首尔或东京应该做的事情,但无疑会增加一个他们必须考虑的新因素。”

But an editorial in Hankyoreh, a left-leaning daily newspaper in Seoul, questioned the wisdom of close cooperation among the United States, Japan and South Korea, saying it had put South Korea “consistently in conflict with China and Russia, two countries with a huge influence on the Korean Peninsula’s political situation. It’s time to reflect on whether this skewed approach to diplomacy hasn’t had the effect of contributing to the development of relations between North Korea and Russia.”

但首尔左倾日报《韩民族日报》的社论质疑美日韩国密切合作是否明智,称这让韩国“一直与对朝鲜半岛政治局势有巨大影响的中俄两国发生冲突。现在是反思这种偏颇的外交方式是否导致朝俄关系发展的时候了”。

Despite the drama in Pyongyang this week, some analysts said that the biggest worry for the region remains the rising military ambitions of China.

尽管平壤本周发生了戏剧性事件,但一些分析人士表示,该地区最大的担忧仍然是中国日益增长的军事野心。

“The maritime buildup in the East China Sea or South China Sea or in space and cyber and a multi-domain war capability — they all justify our new policy,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat and a special adviser at the Canon Institute for Global Studies in Tokyo. Mr. Putin’s visit to North Korea, he said, “is just another example, and not the biggest example” of threats in Asia.

“在东海或南海的海上建设,太空、网络以及多领域的战争能力,都证明了我们的新政策是合理的,”日本前外交官、东京佳能全球研究所特别顾问宫家邦彦表示。他说,普京对朝鲜的访问“只是亚洲存在的威胁的另一个例子,而不是最大的”。

KATHLEEN KINGSBURY

2024年6月21日

A nuclear weapon doesn’t need to be used in war to have lasting impact. More than 2,000 such weapons were tested during the 20th century, leaving behind generational fallout that affects human beings, public health and the environment. The American government has not finished cleaning up the consequences of testing that ended decades ago, and the possibility of restarting today is real.

核武器不一定要在战争中使用才能产生持久影响。20世纪人类试验了2000多枚核武器,这些试验对人类、公共卫生和环境造成的影响持续了一代人的时间。美国政府至今没有清理完几十年前结束的核试验所造成的后果,而在今天,重启核试验的可能性是真实存在的。

As W.J. Hennigan details in his latest for Times Opinion’s “At the Brink” series, the United States, Russia and China are all modernizing their testing facilities. None of the nations have conducted an underground nuclear test since they all signed the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. But the United States and China never ratified the document into force, and Russia rescinded its ratification in November, a step backward for international arms control.

正如W·J·亨尼根最近为时报观点的“边缘”系列撰写的文章中详述的那样,美国、俄罗斯和中国都在对其测试设施进行现代化改造。自1996年签署《全面禁止核试验条约》以来,这些国家都没有进行过地下核试验。但美国和中国从未批准该条约生效,俄罗斯于去年11月撤销了对该条约的批准,这是国际军备控制的倒退。

Now, commercial satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs PBC shows that all three pre-eminent nuclear powers are modernizing and expanding their testing infrastructure, adding new buildings, cutting new roads and boring new tunnels in recent years. The photos, analyzed by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, are not proof a test is imminent, but they do indicate preparations are being made if political leaders ever decide to give the go-ahead.

现在,行星实验室PBC提供的商业卫星图像显示,这三个主要核大国近年来都在对其测试基础设施进行现代化改造和扩建,增加新的建筑,开辟新的道路,挖掘新的隧道。米德尔伯里国际问题研究所詹姆斯·马丁防扩散研究中心对这些照片进行了分析,它们并不能证明核试验将在短期内开始,但确实可以表明,各国正在进行准备工作,以待政治领导人的批准。

20OPN newsletter master1050 Planet Labs PBC

The United States says it’s being transparent about its expansion in Nevada, where it previously conducted 928 nuclear tests. It’s building a state-of-the-art underground lab that conducts subcritical tests, or experiments that use explosives on components of a weapon but fall short of triggering a nuclear chain reaction. The surrounding support facilities, the National Nuclear Security Administration says, are for “security, food, housing, and administrative needs” for on-site personnel.

美国表示,它在内华达州的扩张是透明的,此前它在那里进行了928次核试验。目前美国正在建造一个最先进的地下实验室,用于进行亚临界核试验,也就是在核武器部件上使用爆炸物,但不足以引发核连锁反应的实验。国家核安全局说,周围的辅助设施是为了满足现场人员的“安全、食品、住房和行政需要”。

20OPN newsletter 03 master1050

Planet Labs PBC

The sprawling Lop Nur site in northwest China has perhaps undergone the most sweeping changes. The New York Times published an investigation in December detailing what experts have learned. More than 30 buildings have been added or renovated at the main support base alone, since 2017. The Chinese have also drilled new vertical shafts capable of hosting larger nuclear tests than the older horizontal tunnel network.

位于中国西北部的罗布泊遗址可能发生了最彻底的变化。《纽约时报》去年12月发表了一项调查,详细介绍了专家们的发现。自2017年以来,仅在主要支持基地就增加或翻新了30多座建筑物。中国还钻探了新的竖井,比起旧的水平隧道网络,能够承载更大的核试验。

Before the world goes down this path again, it is vital to see and understand how testing continues to affect the planet and its peoples today. To facilitate that, Hennigan takes us through the history of testing.

在世界再次走上这条道路之前,至关重要的是,要看到和了解核试验如今将会如何继续影响地球及人类。为此,亨尼根带我们回顾了核试验的历史。

While the majority of tests were undertaken at the far reaches of civilization, their legacy is lasting. It’s evident in the chronic illnesses and cancers that are pervasive in the surrounding populations, and perhaps can now best be seen in rural Arkansas. Immigrants from the Marshall Islands who settled in the area, as well as their descendants, are estimated to represent about 2 percent of the population; those residents account for 38 percent of the deaths there during the coronavirus pandemic’s first four months. Hennigan traveled there to tell their story.

虽然大多数试验是在远离文明的偏远地带进行,但它们留下的影响是持久的。从周围人群中普遍存在的慢性病和癌症中可以清晰地看到,如今,也许在阿肯色州的农村地区最能体现这一点。据估计,在该地区定居的马绍尔群岛移民及其后代约占人口的2%;在新冠病毒大流行的头四个月里,这些居民占死亡人数的38%。亨尼根前往那里讲述他们的故事。

The United States has yet to issue a formal apology for the widespread contamination that has shaped the lives of all Marshallese, and instead paid out a “full and final” settlement years before the true costs were known. The Marshallese, like the Americans sickened by the effects of aboveground tests in New Mexico and Nevada that took place between 1945 and 1962, deserve justice.

美国尚未就影响了所有马绍尔裔生活的大范围污染发表正式道歉,而是在真正的损失被知晓的数年前支付了“全部和最终”的和解金。马绍尔裔和1945年及1962年间因新墨西哥州和内华达州地面试验而生病的美国人一样,理应得到公正的对待

Instead, Congress allowed the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act to expire earlier this month, leaving thousands of uranium miners, atomic veterans and test victims without federal support. It marked the first time in 34 years that the government turned its back on Americans sickened because of their exposure to radiation during U.S. nuclear weapons mining and testing during the Cold War.

相反,国会允许《辐射暴露补偿法案》在本月早些时候到期,使得数以千计的铀矿工人、原子能部队退伍军人和试验受害者失去了联邦政府的支持。这标志着34年来,美国政府首次对冷战期间美国核武器开采和试验期间因辐射暴露而患病的美国人置之不理。

More politicians should back the bill cosponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-Missouri), Ben Ray Lujan (D-New Mexico) and others to expand and extend this lifesaving aid. Claiming ignorance isn't an option.

更多的政界人士应该支持由参议员乔希·霍利(密苏里州共和党人)、本·雷·卢扬(新墨西哥州民主党人)和其他人共同提出的法案,扩大和延长这项救命的援助。绝不能以不知情来推脱。

Beyond testing, history tells us that having even a single nuclear weapon on earth risks accidents and miscommunications that could mean Armageddon. Throughout the Cold War, human beings have, by luck, stepped in to prevent such catastrophe. We know the consequences of testing, however, and those mistakes should never be repeated.

除了核试验,历史告诉我们,地球上即使只有一枚核武器,也有发生意外和沟通失误的可能性,那可能意味着世界末日。在整个冷战期间,人类幸运地阻止了这种灾难的发生。然而我们知道测试的后果,这些错误不应该重演。

DAVID PIERSON, CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年6月21日

朝鲜官方媒体提供的一张照片显示,朝鲜领导人金正恩和俄罗斯总统普京周三在平壤签署了一项条约。 Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press

In the contest of global narratives, China has sought to cast itself as a peaceful nation opposed to dividing the world into rival camps. In contrast, it has accused the United States of building alliances that will drive the world toward a new Cold War.

在全球叙事的较量中,中国一直试图将自己描绘成一个反对将世界划分为敌对阵营的和平国家。相比之下,它指责美国拉帮结派,将世界推向新的冷战。

Yet Russia and North Korea’s mutual defense treaty, which calls for the two countries to provide immediate military assistance to each other in the event of war, is exactly the kind of bloc-building that China has charged the United States with. China’s closest strategic partner and its only treaty ally — Russia and North Korea — are now the ones heightening the risk of Cold War-style confrontation in northeast Asia.

然而,俄罗斯和朝鲜缔结的共同防御条约要求两国在发生战争时立即向对方提供军事援助,这正是中国指责美国的拉帮结派之举。中国最亲密的战略伙伴与唯一的条约盟友——也就是俄罗斯与朝鲜——现在成为了令东北亚地区出现冷战式对抗风险加剧的两个国家。

The pact also creates more headaches for Beijing by appearing to deepen the semblance of a trilateral axis between China, Russia and North Korea, which China has sought to avoid. “Beijing has very carefully stayed away from the optics of a China-Russia-North Korea axis,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “It wants to keep its options open.”

该条约也给北京带来了更多麻烦,因为它似乎加深了中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜三边轴心的印象,而这是北京方面一直极力避免的。“北京一直非常小心地避开中国-俄罗斯-朝鲜轴心的形象,”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。“它希望给自己保留选择余地。”

Japan, South Korea and the United States could now decide that the threat posed by a Russian and North Korean defense treaty requires them to enhance their own security arrangement, announced last year at Camp David, by increasing troop levels or strengthening defenses along China’s periphery.

日本、韩国和美国现在也许会认定,俄罗斯和朝鲜的防务条约所构成的威胁导致它们需要在中国周边地区增兵或加强防御能力,以此强化去年在戴维营宣布的三方安全安排

20china nkorea 02 qmwj master1050韩国总统尹锡悦、美国总统拜登和日本首相岸田文雄去年在戴维营会晤后的合影。

For those reasons, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, might not welcome the budding bromance between President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea. Meeting in Pyongyang on Wednesday, Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim heralded the defense agreement as the beginning of a new era in their relations.

出于这些原因,中国最高领导人习近平可能不乐于见到俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩之间萌生的兄弟情谊。普京和金正恩周三在平壤会晤时,将这个防务协议视为两国关系新时代的开始。

The pact also exposed the limitations of China’s partnerships with both countries, analysts said.

分析人士认为,这份协议还暴露了中国与两国伙伴关系的局限性。

Mr. Xi has declared a “no limits” relationship with Mr. Putin and pledged “unswerving” support for North Korea — linking arms with two like-minded authoritarian countries to push back against what they regard as American bullying around the world.

习近平宣布与普京建立“无止境”的关系,并承诺“坚定不移地”支持朝鲜——与两个志同道合的威权国家联合起来,反击它们所认为的美国在世界各地的霸凌行为。

But by aligning with two pariah states, Mr. Xi is also at risk of facing fallout from the actions of their unpredictable leaders. Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has severely damaged China’s relationship with the West, which has accused Beijing of not doing enough to rein in Russia. And Mr. Kim’s nuclear saber rattling has helped bring two tense neighbors — Japan and South Korea — together in a trilateral defense partnership with the United States.

但与两个遭到国际社会孤立的国家结盟,习近平也有可能面临这两个国家的领导人不可预测的举动所带来的后果。普京入侵乌克兰严重损害了中国与西方的关系,它们指责北京未采取足够行动来制止俄罗斯。而金正恩的核威胁促使两个关系紧张的邻国——日本和韩国——与美国建立了三边防务伙伴关系。

Fears already abound that Russia may provide North Korea with technology to bolster Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for munitions for use in Ukraine.

外界已经开始担心俄罗斯有可能向朝鲜提供技术,加强平壤的核武器计划,从而换取用于乌克兰的弹药。

Mr. Xi can ill afford more surprises at a time when he needs to turn around China’s struggling economy. Despite his increasingly adversarial tone toward the West, Mr. Xi remains invested in maintaining China’s position in the current economic global order.

需要扭转中国经济困境的习近平无法承受更多的意外。尽管他对西方的态度越来越敌对,但仍然致力于维护中国在当前全球经济秩序中的地位。

“The new pact between Putin and Kim is not good news for Beijing,” said John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “Xi Jinping has never had an easy relationship with the headstrong Korean dynast and now has increasing reason to worry about Putin encouraging Kim’s aggressive tendencies.”

“普京和金正恩之间的新协议对北京来说不是好消息,”首尔延世大学研究中国问题的教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。“习近平和这个任性的朝鲜王朝关系一直不好,现在越来越有理由担心普京会鼓励金正恩的好斗倾向。”

20china nkorea 04 qmwj master1050今年5月,普京访华期间与习近平在北京会面。

Between the war in Ukraine and the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Delury said, “Putin and Kim are forces of instability at a time when China benefits from an orderly environment.”

鲁乐汉表示,乌克兰战争再加上朝鲜半岛爆发冲突的风险“让普京和金正恩成了不稳定因素,而此时此刻,中国需要的是平稳的环境。”

China has sought to distance itself from the new pact, with a spokesman at the Foreign Ministry on Thursday declining to comment, saying it was a Russian and North Korean issue.

中国试图与这个新协议保持距离,外交部发言人周四拒绝发表评论,称这是俄罗斯和朝鲜的问题。

In reality, the Russia-North Korea treaty, coupled with the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea, has “significantly exacerbated” the risk of “confrontation, rivalry or conflict” in the region, in China’s view, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

中国人民大学国际关系教授时殷弘表示,实际上在中国看来,俄朝条约加上美日韩联盟“大大加剧了”该地区出现“对抗、竞争或冲突”的风险。

Mr. Shi said peace on the Korean Peninsula was a top priority for China, and the increasing militarization of the region put one of “China’s vital interests at stake.”

时殷弘表示,朝鲜半岛和平是中国的头等要务之一,该地区的日益军事化使“中国的一个核心利益受到威胁”。

China still holds considerable sway over Russia and North Korea. The United States contends the Kremlin would not be able to sustain its war in Ukraine if China did not buy massive quantities of Russian oil or supply Russia with consumer goods and dual-use technologies, like chips and machine tools, to fuel its war machine. At the same time, North Korea relies on China for virtually all its trade, including food and energy.

中国仍然对俄罗斯和朝鲜拥有相当大的影响力。美国认为,如果中国不从俄罗斯购买大量石油,或向俄罗斯提供消费品和芯片、机床等军民两用技术,为其战争机器提供动力,克里姆林宫将无法维持在乌克兰的战争。与此同时,朝鲜几乎所有的贸易都依赖中国,包括食品和能源。

That sway over Moscow and Pyongyang has bolstered Beijing’s importance at times when other countries have called on China to use its influence — unsuccessfully — to rein in North Korea’s nuclear buildup or Russia’s war in Ukraine.

这种对莫斯科和平壤的影响力增强了北京的重要性。其他国家曾呼吁中国利用其影响力来遏制朝鲜的核建设或俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争,这种呼吁并未成功。

But Mr. Putin’s wooing of Mr. Kim creates a new competitor for Beijing for influence over North Korea, creating “a windfall for Kim and a headache for Xi Jinping,” said Danny Russel, a diplomacy and security analyst at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

然而,普京对金正恩的拉拢让北京在影响朝鲜方面有了新的竞争对手,这给“金正恩带来一笔意外之财,却让习近平头痛不已,”亚洲协会政策研究所的外交与安全分析师丹尼·拉塞尔表示。

20china nkorea 05 qmwj master1050周三,普京和金正恩在平壤金日成广场举行的仪式上,照片由朝鲜官方媒体提供。

“Importantly for Pyongyang, the partnership with Putin — while not without limits — generates valuable leverage against Beijing,” Mr. Russel said. “Playing major powers off against each other is a classic play in Korean history, and North Korea’s massive dependence on China in recent decades has been a liability that Kim Jong-un is eager to reduce.”

“对平壤来说重要的是,与普京的伙伴关系——虽然不是无止境的——产生了对抗北京的宝贵筹码,”拉塞尔说。“挑拨大国之间的对抗是朝鲜历史上的经典戏码,近几十年来,对中国的严重依赖一直是金正恩迫切想解决的一个软肋。”

“The scorecard shows North Korea gaining the most by far, with China potentially the biggest loser,” he added.

“到目前为止,朝鲜是最大的受益者,中国有可能是最大的输家,”他补充道。

Keeping the Kim regime in power is a priority for Beijing to preserve a buffer between the Chinese border and U.S.-led forces stationed in South Korea.

维护金正恩政权是北京的当务之急,以便在中国边境和驻韩美军之间保持一个缓冲地带。

China and North Korea officially say they are as close as “lips and teeth,” but relations between the two neighbors have long been fraught, with a mix of mutual mistrust and common interests.

中朝两国官方称,两国的关系是“唇齿相依”,但这两个邻国之间的关系长期以来一直充满了矛盾,既互不信任,又存在共同利益。

20china nkorea 06 qmwj master10502019年,习近平和金正恩在平壤国宾馆。

Since taking power in 2011, Mr. Kim has made China uncomfortable by rapidly increasing the number of missile tests and expanding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Mr. Xi initially refused to meet with Mr. Kim. It was only when President Trump announced plans to meet with the North Korean dictator that Mr. Xi changed course, eventually holding talks with Mr. Kim in 2018, before and after the summit with Mr. Trump.

自2011年掌权后,金正恩迅速增加导弹试验,扩大朝鲜的核武器计划,这都让中国感到不安。习近平最初拒绝与金正恩会面。直到特朗普总统宣布计划与这个朝鲜独裁者会面后,习近平才改变态度,最终在2018年,也就是在金正恩与特朗普峰会前后,与金正恩数次会面。

Mr. Xi could now feel compelled again to meet with Mr. Kim, said Victor D. Cha, a professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, because “Xi cannot afford to let Putin flaunt all of this influence over his neighbor.”

乔治敦大学政府与国际事务教授、华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心韩国研究主任车维德说,习近平现在可能会觉得有必要再次与金正恩会面,因为“习近平不能让普京炫耀对他的邻国的影响力”。

The growing closeness of Russia and North Korea could give China more of an incentive to try to repair and stabilize ties with South Korea.

俄罗斯和朝鲜日益密切的关系可能会让中国更有动力去努力修复和稳定与韩国的关系。

On the same day Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim met in Pyongyang, Chinese diplomats and military officials met with their South Korean counterparts in Seoul. China wants to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul in hopes of weakening South Korea’s military alignment with the United States.

就在普京与金正恩在平壤会晤的同一天,中国外交官和军方官员在首尔会见了韩国对等官员。中国希望在华盛顿和首尔之间制造裂痕,以削弱韩国与美国的军事同盟。

At the meeting, according to Chinese state media on Wednesday, Beijing said that the Korean Peninsula’s priority should be to cool tensions and avoid moves that would intensify confrontation — language that is vague enough that it could be read as a critique of either the United States or the Russia-North Korea pact. Despite its alliance with the North, Beijing sought to depict itself as a neutral player in the dispute, saying that it has always “determined its position based on the right and wrong of the matter itself.”

据中国官方媒体周三报道,北京在会晤中表示,朝鲜半岛的当务之急是给形势降温,避免对立对抗加剧——这种措辞非常模糊,既可以解读为对美国的批评,也可以解读为对俄朝协议的批评。尽管与朝鲜结盟,北京仍试图将自己描绘成争端中的中立角色,并表示自己一向“根据事情本身的是非曲直决定自己的立场”。

20china nkorea 07 qmwj master1050周三,普京离开平壤之前与金正恩话别,照片由俄罗斯官方媒体提供。

艾莎, ZIXU WANG

2024年6月21日

中国内地知名连锁餐厅回家湘在香港开业,试图在竞争激烈的香港餐饮业占据一席之地。 Anthony Kwan for The New York Times

The ravenous came for a taste of home in a dish of spicy fried beef or steamed fish head. Waiters, speaking in Mandarin, delivered plates heated with green and red chiles.

饥肠辘辘的食客来这里品尝家乡的小炒黄牛肉或剁椒鱼头。服务员操着普通话,端上一盘盘少不了绿色和红色辣椒的热辣菜肴。

It was opening night in Hong Kong at Return Home Hunan, a well-known chain from mainland China trying to wedge into the city’s competitive food scene. Huang Haiying, the restaurant’s founder, greeted customers in a bright red suit while waiters handed out red envelopes stuffed with coupons.

这是来自中国内地的知名连锁餐厅“回家湘”在香港的开业之夜,它正试图打入香港竞争激烈的餐饮业。品牌创始人黄海鹰身着鲜艳的红色套装迎接顾客,服务员则在一旁分发塞满优惠券的红包。

Hong Kong is a difficult place to open a restaurant these days. Fewer people are dining out, and more restaurants have closed than opened this year. But restaurant owners from mainland China, facing their own challenges at home, see an opening.

如今,在香港开餐馆可谓困难重重。外出就餐的人越来越少,今年倒闭的餐馆比开张的还多。但在中国内地也面临着挑战的餐馆老板们却看到了商机。

“Everyone has their own way of surviving, and now it’s about surviving on the margins,” Ms. Huang said. “We’ll see who has more grit and succeeds.”

“每个人都有自己的生存方式,现在是在边缘求生。”黄女士说:“我们来看看谁更有勇气,谁会成功。”

Return Home Hunan is one of more than a dozen famous Chinese eateries that have opened in Hong Kong in recent months. The owners have been encouraged by a steady flow of new customers from Hong Kong, who have been traveling to Shenzhen, the mainland city next door, in search of more choices.

近几个月来,十多家中国内地的餐饮名牌连锁店在香港开张,回家湘是其中之一。来自香港的新顾客源源不断地前往毗邻的内地城市深圳,寻找更多消费选择,这让店主们备受鼓舞。

But the arrival of these restaurants in Hong Kong has been met with some hesitation. A Chinese territory that long operated with a high degree of autonomy, Hong Kong has increasingly come under the tighter grip of Beijing. To some people in the city, the migration of these restaurants is an illustration of how Hong Kong’s culture is slowly being taken over by the rest of China.

但是,这些餐厅来到香港后却遭到了一些质疑。作为一个长期高度自治的中国领土,香港越来越受到北京的严密控制。对香港的一些人来说,这些餐厅的迁入表明香港的文化正在慢慢被中国其他地区所取代。

Not far from Return Home Hunan, new restaurants offer food from three southern Chinese provinces: There’s the Guizhou rice noodles place, the Guangxi river snail noodles shop and stinky tofu from the province of Hunan.

在离回家湘不远的地方新开了几家餐馆,提供来自中国南方三个省份的美食:贵州米粉、广西螺蛳粉和湖南臭豆腐。

These establishments cater to locals and a growing community of mainland Chinese, some of whom have made the city their home in the past decade.

这些场所主要面向当地人和日益壮大的内地人群体,其中一些人在过去十年中来到这座城市安家。

00hongkong restaurants 01 cwkl master1050在香港太古城附近,人们在中午排队购买两菜一汤的午餐。如今,最受欢迎的是那些提供既便宜又丰富菜肴的餐馆。00hongkong restaurants 01 bmhf master1050回家湘的小炒黄牛肉、外婆炒蛋和蓝莓米粑粑。

“When I first came to Hong Kong, finding authentic restaurants with mainland cuisine was difficult,” said Karen Lin, a banker and part-time business school student at the University of Hong Kong, who was eating spicy fried beef at Return Home Hunan on a recent evening.

香港大学商学院在职学生、银行从业者凯伦·林(音)说:“我刚来香港的时候,很难找到正宗的内地菜餐馆。”最近的一个晚上,她在回家湘吃了小炒黄牛肉。

“The Chinese restaurants here were all based on Hong Kong ‘local tastes,’” said Ms. Lin, who has lived in the city for six years.

在这座城市生活了六年的林女士说:“这里的中餐馆都是以香港的‘本地口味’为基础的。”

The gripe among mainland transplants that Hong Kong food is bland has more of a sting for locals these days as they grapple with the city’s changing identity.

内地人抱怨香港食物太过清淡,如今这对本地人来说更加刺耳,因为他们正在努力应对这座城市身份的改变。

In 2019, Beijing enforced a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong after citywide democracy protests. Many expatriates and local Hong Kongers left the city. The exodus was intensified by the Covid-19 pandemic and the city’s public health measures — among the strictest in the world.

2019年,在全市范围的民主抗议活动爆发之后,北京对香港实施了一项全面的国家安全法。许多外籍人士和香港本地人离开了这座城市。新冠疫情和香港的公共卫生措施(世界上最严格的公共卫生措施之一)加剧了人口外流。

Now, as Hong Kong is pulled closer into China’s orbit, an economic slowdown and real estate crisis on the mainland is weighing on its long-awaited recovery.

现在,随着香港被拉近中国的轨道,内地的经济放缓和房地产危机正在拖累香港期待已久的复苏

The fastest-growing group of migrants to Hong Kong is people from mainland China looking for better jobs, obtaining special visas that the government started offering. They have found a city that is more welcoming than it was before the pandemic, when mainlanders were often greeted with hostility from Hong Kong residents.

来港移民中增长最快的群体是从中国内地来港寻找更好工作的人们,他们获得了政府提供的特殊签证。他们发现这座城市比疫情发生前更加热情好客,当时内地人常常受到香港居民的敌视。

“Hong Kong has become much more inclusive for mainlanders,” said Zheng Huiwen, the manager at one of the Hong Kong branches of Tai Er Pickled Fish, a Sichuan fish restaurant from mainland China. At the restaurant, waiters announce the arrival of a dish in the inflected style of traditional Peking Opera, declaring, “Delicious fish is coming!”

太二酸菜鱼是一家来自内地的川菜鱼餐馆,其香港分店的经理郑慧文(音)说:“香港对大陆人更加包容了。”在这家餐厅,服务员端来一道菜的时候会用传统京剧的腔调大声说:“好吃的鱼来了!”

00hongkong restaurants 03 cwkl master1050太二酸菜鱼的经理郑慧文(音)说:“香港对内地人更加包容了。”00hongkong restaurants 06 cwkl master1050太二酸菜鱼的酸菜鱼。00hongkong restaurants 02 cwkl master1050太二酸菜鱼的服务员正在给顾客上菜。

Mr. Zheng, who moved to Hong Kong as a teenager from neighboring Guangdong Province and spent his summers waiting tables, recalled how Hong Kong diners would treat him more rudely once they heard his mainland accent.

郑先生十几岁时从邻近的广东省移居香港,夏天会在这里餐厅当服务生打工,他回忆说,香港食客一旦听出他的内地口音,就会对他非常无礼。

The tone is changing as Hong Kong residents spend more time on the other side of the border, eating and shopping.

随着香港居民越来越爱到边境另一边吃饭购物,这种气氛正在发生变化。

Tai Er Pickled Fish became so popular among Hong Kong tourists in Shenzhen that, in December, it opened four locations in Hong Kong.

在前往深圳的香港游客中, 太二酸菜鱼非常受欢迎,以至于去年12月,它在香港开了四家分店。

Among the newly built apartments next to the location where Mr. Zheng is manager, in a mall where the city’s old Kai Tak airport once stood, more than half the apartments for sale in March were snapped up by mainland Chinese buyers, local news media reported.

据当地新闻媒体报道,在郑先生担任经理的店铺旁边新建的公寓中,3月份有一半以上的公寓被中国内地买家抢购一空。郑先生店铺所在的购物中心位于启德机场旧址。

At Xita Grandma BBQ, a new restaurant from China, Cambridge Zhang, the franchise owner, complained that mainland diners were interested mostly in trendy restaurants. Mr. Zhang wanted to find different customers in a new market.

在来自内地新开的餐厅西塔老太太烤肉店,这个特许经营店所有人剑桥·张(音)抱怨说,内地食客主要对受潮流追捧的餐厅感兴趣。他想到一个新市场寻找不同的客户。

He soon discovered that many others had the same idea.

他很快发现,很多人抱持同样的想法。

00hongkong restaurants 04 cwkl master1050西塔老太太烤肉店的顾客,这是一家来自内地的新店。00hongkong restaurants 05 cwkl master1050西塔老太太烤肉店特许经营店所有人剑桥·张(音)说,他在香港开店的原因是内地食客主要对时尚餐厅感兴趣。

“I came here and found, ‘Hey, here is this mainland restaurant, and there is another mainland restaurant,’” Mr. Zhang said animatedly.

“我来到这里,发现,‘这里有家内地餐厅,那边又是一家内地餐厅,’”张先生兴致勃勃地说。

To some local restaurants that are barely holding on, the flurry of openings is baffling. In April, nearly twice as many restaurants folded as opened, according to OpenRice, an online restaurant and market insight platform.

对于一些勉强维持经营的本地餐馆来说,新店如雨后春笋般涌现的情况令人费解。根据餐饮指南咨询平台OpenRice的数据,4月份倒闭的餐厅数量几乎是新开餐厅数量的两倍。

In the Shek Tong Tsui area, where Return Home Hunan opened in May, many of the brightly colored restaurants — once neighborhood mainstays — had recently closed down. A diner that served cheap noodles and milk tea was gone, as was an eatery where retirees gathered to eat dim sum and catch up on the day’s news.

回家湘5月在石塘咀地区开业,在这个地区,许多曾经是社区支柱、色彩鲜艳的餐厅最近纷纷关张大吉。一家供应廉价面条和奶茶的餐馆不见了,另一家退休人员经常聚在一起吃早茶、了解当天新闻的餐馆也关了。

“The restaurant business is hard work,” said Roy Tse, a local restaurant owner who sold lunch rice dishes once popular with office workers in the Taikoo Shing business district of Hong Kong. There are fewer lunchtime visitors these days. Those who still come order the basics.

“餐饮业很辛苦,”当地餐馆老板罗伊·谢(音)说,他曾在香港太古城商业区出售曾经受办公室职员欢迎的午间饭菜。如今午餐时间的顾客变少了。那些来光顾的人也只点最基本的东西。

Yeung Hei, the manager of Fu Ging Aromatic Noodles, a longtime local Hong Kong restaurant where a chef stews beef brisket in the front window, said he used to have customers who came in every day.

富景清香面家是一家老牌香港本地餐馆,这家店的厨师会在橱窗炖牛腩,这家餐馆的经理杨熙(音)说,以前有顾客每天都会光顾。

“But then, one day, they just disappeared and never came back,” he said.

“但后来有一天,他们突然消失了,再也没有来过,”他说。

These days, restaurants that offer inexpensive dishes tend to do better. Many of the mainland newcomers attract diners with deep discounts, coupons and fan club specials.

如今,提供廉价菜肴的餐馆往往生意更好。许多内地新餐馆以大幅折扣、优惠券和会员俱乐部特惠吸引食客。

00hongkong restaurants 08 cwkl master1050遇见小面的碗杂面。00hongkong restaurants 07 cwkl master1050许多店不仅迎合当地人的需求,也迎合日益增长的中国内地群体的需求。

On a recent Thursday afternoon, Chester Kwong and Sonja Cheng were hunched over big bowls at Meet Noodles, a fast-food chain famous for its spicy-and-sour noodles made with potato flour from the southern Chinese city of Chongqing.

最近一个周四的下午,切斯特·邝(音)和索尼娅·郑(音)在遇见小面吃着大碗盛装的面,这家快餐连锁店来自重庆,以红薯粉制成的酸辣粉闻名。

“This is dirt cheap,” Mr. Kwong said. He was referring to a hot-and-sour noodle set that Ms. Cheng had ordered for 36 Hong Kong dollars, or $4.61. It included a bowl of hot-and-sour noodle soup and a side of fried chicken.

“这真是太便宜了,”邝先生说。他指的是郑女士点的酸辣粉套餐,价格为36港币。套餐包括一碗酸辣粉和一份炸鸡。

Both Ms. Cheng and Mr. Kwong, recent college graduates, expressed concern that the Chinese eateries would replace their favorite local spots. “It’s good to have these places and options for Chinese food, but it’s a little scary to think that one day they might overtake what we had in Hong Kong,” Mr. Kwong said.

刚刚大学毕业的郑女士和邝先生都表示担心这些内地餐馆会取代他们最喜欢的当地餐厅。“有这些地方可选来吃中餐是件好事,但想到有一天它们可能会取代我们在香港曾经所有的餐饮,还是有点可怕的,”邝先生说。

There are others who feel similarly and choose not to patronize mainland restaurants.

其他人也有类似的感受,他们选择不光顾内地餐馆。

“I use every opportunity to help local restaurants,” said Audrey Chan, who grew up in mainland China but moved to Hong Kong as a student six years ago and identified as a Hong Konger.

“我利用一切机会帮助当地餐馆,”奥德丽·陈说,她在内地长大,但六年前以学生身份移居香港,身份认同是香港人。

Fu Ging Aromatic Noodles once counted nearby residents in the middle-class neighborhood of Chai Wan as its main source of income. But so many people have moved away — many of them out of Hong Kong — that it has been left searching for new customers.

富景清香面家曾将柴湾中产阶级社区附近的居民视为其主要收入来源。但许多人已经搬走了——其中许多人离开了香港——以至于富景清香面家不得不寻找新顾客。

Ms. Huang of Return Home Hunan said she knew it would be tough.

回家湘的黄女士说,她知道这会很艰难。

But, she added, “no matter how bad the economy is, people always have to eat.”

但她也说,“无论经济状况如何糟糕,人总是要吃饭的。”

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MATTHEW ZEITLIN

2024年6月20日

ONE WEEK TO CHANGE THE WORLD: An Oral History of the 1999 WTO Protests, by DW Gibson

《改变世界的一周:1999年反WTO抗议口述史》,D·W· 吉布森 著(ONE WEEK TO CHANGE THE WORLD: An Oral History of the 1999 WTO Protests, by DW Gibson)

HOW THE WORLD RAN OUT OF EVERYTHING: Inside the Global Supply Chain, by Peter S. Goodman

《世界是如何耗尽一切的:全球供应链幕后》,彼得·S·古德曼 著(HOW THE WORLD RAN OUT OF EVERYTHING: Inside the Global Supply Chain, by Peter S. Goodman)

On a cold November morning in 1999, Harold Linde, a member of the Rainforest Action Network, was trying to hang an enormous sign from a construction crane hundreds of feet in the air over downtown Seattle. Loosely attached to a rope, he rappelled off the crane, lost control and began to plummet.

1999年11月一个寒冷的早晨,雨林行动网络成员哈罗德·林德试图在西雅图市中心离地数百英尺高的建筑起重机上悬挂一个巨大的标语。他在顺着一根绳索从塔吊向下滑时失去了控制,开始坠落。

Linde might have died, but thanks to the Ruckus Society, a nonprofit that trains activist groups, he knew to rip off his frictionless fleece gloves, grab onto the rope with his bare hands and wait for his colleagues to help him back up. After some spiritual assistance from “a circle of pagan witches on the ground” who were “sending prayers up,” Linde and his friends succeeded in unfurling a 100-pound banner. It showed two arrows pointing in opposite directions, one labeled “DEMOCRACY” and the other “W.T.O.”

林德本来可能会丧命,但多亏了捣乱协会(Ruckus Society)的训练——这是一个培训行动团体的非营利组织,他知道要脱下无阻力的刷毛手套,徒手抓住绳子,然后等待同事们把他拉回去。在“地面上一群异教巫师”的“祈祷”帮助下,林德和他的朋友们成功展开了一面重达100磅的旗帜。旗帜上有两个指向相反方向的箭头,一个标着“民主”,另一个标着“WTO”。

This stunt, which kicked off the Battle of Seattle, a protest of the third ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization, captures the combination of high idealism, drama, detailed organization, radicalism and public relations savvy that defined a movement against the rising tide of globalization in the decades after the Cold War.

这个危险举动拉开了抗议世界贸易组织第三次部长级会议的“西雅图之战”的序幕,它将崇高的理想主义、戏剧性、周密的组织、激进主义和高超的公关手段结合在一起,成为了冷战后几十年来反全球化浪潮运动的标志。

DW Gibson’s comprehensive oral history “One Week to Change the World” gives a panoramic view of the multiday festival of dissent, from its authorized marches and semi-legal “direct actions” to its extremely illegal vandalism. There was even a concert.

D·W·吉布森全面的口述史著作《改变世界的一周》全景展示了这个持续多日的异议庆典,从政府授权的游行和半合法的“直接行动”,到极端非法的破坏活动。甚至还有一场音乐会。

The protests attracted the attention of progressive elected officials like Sherrod Brown and Dennis Kucinich, grunge scene stalwarts like Nirvana’s Krist Novoselic and Soundgarden’s Kim Thayil, the presidential candidate Ralph Nader, the linguist and social critic Noam Chomsky and the British actress Julie Christie. “Wow — we’re really going to give them an experience,” Nader recalls thinking. The experience ended with mass arrests, broken windows and tear-gassed protesters.

抗议活动吸引了谢罗德·布朗和丹尼斯·库奇尼奇等开明的民选官员、涅槃乐队的克里斯特·诺沃塞利克和声音花园乐队的金·塔伊尔等垃圾摇滚中坚力量、总统候选人拉尔夫·纳德、语言学家和社会评论家诺姆·乔姆斯基,以及英国女演员朱莉·克里斯蒂的关注。纳德回忆起他当时这样想:“哇!我们真的要让他们体验一把了。”结果这场体验以大规模逮捕、破碎的玻璃窗和对示威者使用催泪瓦斯告终。

The W.T.O.’s ministerial meetings were meant to advance the project of knitting together the newly liberalized world with a “harmonization” of common rules — internationally agreed upon food safety standards, for instance — to lower trade barriers. Ambassadors and NGO officials from around the world had assembled in a city that was fast becoming associated with a new digital economy that promised to accelerate globalization. The city would also soon become home to one of the first major protests partially organized online

那场世贸组织部长级会议旨在通过“协调”共同规则——例如各国一致认可的食品安全标准——来降低贸易壁垒,推进将新自由化的世界连接在一起的项目。来自世界各地的大使和非政府组织官员齐聚西雅图,这座城市当时正迅速与有望加速全球化的新数字经济联系在一起,也将很快成为首批部分通过网络组织起来的大型抗议活动的发生地点。

As Gibson outlines, the W.T.O. protests in Seattle became a natural meeting point for a wide range of leftist groups who felt abandoned by the neoliberal turn cemented by the Democratic president in the White House. American union leaders worried that cheap overseas labor would put downward pressure on blue-collar wages and many green activists were concerned that trade liberalization would be used as a battering ram against domestic environmental protections.

正如吉布森所略述的那样,西雅图的反WTO抗议活动自然而然地成为了众多左派团体的汇聚点,这些团体认为白宫的民主党总统所强化的新自由主义转向抛弃了他们。美国工会领导人担心廉价的海外劳动力会给蓝领工人的工资带来下行压力,而许多环保活动人士则担心贸易自由化会被用作反对国内环境保护的攻城锤。

While the protests themselves were global front-page news, Gibson and his interviewees devote substantial time to the months of lead-up and preparation for the rally as well as the uneasy alliance between strait-laced progressive political leaders and more antic provocateurs who climbed trees to keep them from being felled. “We are here, we’re nonviolent, but we are dedicated to shutting down the W.T.O.,” one activist remembers saying at a pre-protest news conference.

虽然抗议活动本身登上了世界各地的头版,但吉布森和他的受访者还是花了大量时间讲述集会前几个月的准备工作,以及一本正经的进步派政治领导人与那些会爬到树上阻止树木砍伐的挑衅者之间的不稳定联盟。“我们在这里,我们是非暴力的,但我们致力于关闭WTO,”一位活动人士记得自己在抗议前的新闻发布会上这样说。

Gibson also gives due space to the political and law enforcement officials who ultimately failed to quell the demonstrations. In quote after quote, blame largely falls on the Seattle mayor Paul Schell, who died in 2014, and his police chief, Norman Stamper: They didn’t allow enough intelligence gathering before the protests; they didn’t ask for the National Guard soon enough.

吉布森还留了足够的笔墨给最终未能平息示威活动的政治和执法官员。在一段又一段的引述中,责任主要落在了已于2014年去世的前西雅图市长保罗·谢尔和他的警察局长诺曼·斯坦普身上:他们在抗议活动前未掌握充分的情报;也没有及时要求国民警卫队的支援。

After Seattle, despite further meetings (with much more thought-out security) the W.T.O. was not able to reach another major global trade agreement — and has not to this day. Still, it did provide a framework with its existing rules, and trade liberalization advanced in the years that followed, thanks to China’s incorporation into the global economic system. The country joined the W.T.O. in 2001 and quickly became the workshop of the world. China’s growing importance within the global economy also set the stage for the great blow to global trade that would arrive two decades later thanks to coronavirus pandemic.

西雅图之战之后,尽管世贸组织举行了更多(在安全方面更为周全)的会议,但直至今日都未能再达成一项重要的全球贸易协定。尽管如此,世贸组织还是通过其现有规则提供了一个框架,在中国融入全球经济体系的帮助下,贸易自由化在随后的几年里得以推进。中国于2001年加入世贸,并迅速成为世界工厂。中国在全球经济中日益增长的重要性也为二十年后新冠大流行给全球贸易带来的巨大打击奠定了基础。

Peter S. Goodman’s “How the World Ran Out of Everything” is an impassioned account of globalization’s rise and stall. Goodman, a longtime economics correspondent for The New York Times and The Washington Post, offers an expansive view of the modern supply chain, from the Port of Long Beach and long-haul truck routes across the middle of the country to cattle ranchers in Montana and the travails of a Mississippi-based toy company trying to get a shipment from China in time for the holiday season.

彼得·古德曼的《世界是如何耗尽一切的》一书慷慨激昂地描述了全球化的崛起和停滞。曾长期担任《纽约时报》和《华盛顿邮报》经济记者的古德曼以广阔的视角描绘了现代供应链,从长滩港和横跨美国中部的长途卡车路线,到蒙大拿州的牧场主,以及一家总部位于密西西比州的玩具公司为赶在节日季前从中国发货所经历的种种磨难。

At every point in the chain during the pandemic, workers faced deteriorating conditions and financial instability. Toilet paper, meat and other consumer goods shot up in price and declined in availability as container ships idled in ports.

大流行期间,在供应链的每一个环节,工人们都面临着条件恶化和财务不稳定的问题。随着集装箱船在港口闲置,卫生纸、肉类和其他消费品价格飙升,供应量减少。

Goodman argues that the crisis exposed the brittleness of a system that relied, for years, on “just in time” manufacturing, which shrank inventories. Big retailers like Amazon and Walmart and food processors like Tyson and J.B.S. also squeezed suppliers and labor. This system “worked” in terms of lower prices for consumers and higher — Goodman argues, monopoly-size — market share for these giants. When the pandemic struck, manufacturers with low inventory couldn’t deal with the combination of increased demand and fewer workers, while some middlemen, like the global shippers and meatpackers, were able to profit.

古德曼认为,这场危机暴露了多年来依赖“及时制”生产这种导致库存减少的系统的脆弱性。亚马逊和沃尔玛等大型零售商以及泰森和JBS等食品加工商也挤压了供应商和劳动力。从消费者负担的价格下降和这些巨型企业的市场份额提升——古德曼认为已经达到垄断水平——来看,这套系统是“奏效”的。当大流行袭来时,库存低的制造商无法应对需求增加和工人减少的双重压力,而一些中间商,如全球船运商和肉类加工厂,却能从中获利。

Manufacturers also strained under the odd strength of the Covid-era economy. Americans unable to spend on restaurants and trips took to Amazon and began to vacuum up more stuff made cheap by international trade — televisions, basketball hoops, pastry blenders. “The result of this surge was chaos,” Goodman writes. Lights flickered from power outages “as Chinese plants deployed every available production line.”

大流行时代经济异乎寻常的强劲也给制造商带来了压力。无力在餐馆和旅行上消费的美国人开始在亚马逊上购买更多由国际贸易带来的廉价商品:电视机、篮球架、打粉器。“这种激增的结果就是混乱,”古德曼写道。“由于中国工厂动用了所有可用的生产线,”电荒导致灯泡闪烁不定。

11peter s goodman cover master1050

Goodman is not naïve enough to think that globalization can or should be reversed, or that companies seeing political or business risk in China means a renaissance of American manufacturing (the last portion of the book is devoted to the manufacturers finding their way from China not quite back to America, but to Southeast Asia and Mexico).

古德曼并没有天真地认为全球化可以或应该逆转,也不认为企业在中国看到政治或商业风险就意味着美国制造业的复兴(本书最后一部分专门讨论了制造商找到的离开中国的路并非是回到美国,而是去东南亚和墨西哥)。

While the global supply chain is unlikely to be dismantled, the ideology of globalization is under attack practically and politically. “The U.S. is moving towards a kind of nationalistic mercantilism,” Chomsky tells Gibson. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are at odds on many issues, but they’re more similar to each other on trade policy than they are to predecessors in their own parties. Both presidents have shown more interest in using tariffs than in working out trade disputes through the W.T.O.

虽然全球供应链不太可能被拆除,但全球化的意识形态在现实和政治上都受到了攻击。语言学家乔姆斯基告诉吉布森:“美国正在走向一种民族主义的重商主义。”拜登和特朗普在许多问题上意见相左,但在贸易政策上很接近,相比之下他们与各自党派的前任之间的差异反而更大。他们都更倾向于使用关税,而不是通过世贸组织来解决贸易争端。

Seeds of this turn against business-friendly globalism were planted in 1999. Even if no one in the Biden administration is climbing up construction cranes to announce their policy proposals, Democratic lawmakers today have taken up many of the demonstrators’ concerns — environmentalism, labor power, skepticism of global trade arrangements — and knitted them into a policy synthesis that rejects the bipartisan consensus the Seattle protesters sought to overthrow.

对利商的全球主义的抵制情绪在1999年就已经埋下种子。虽说拜登政府中没有人爬上塔吊宣布他们的政策建议,但示威者表达的许多担忧如今已经得到民主党立法者的认同——环保、劳工权力、对全球贸易安排的怀疑——并将它们编织成一个政策综合体,摒弃了西雅图抗议者曾试图推翻的两党共识。

The late-20th-century project of integrating China into the global economy, in the hope that economic development would come hand in hand with political liberalism, feels at best misguided. Offshoring resulted in a predictable loss of U.S. jobs, Goodman writes, and programs designed to help Americans negatively affected by global trade were left underfunded.

20世纪末,美国曾希望中国的经济发展将会与政治自由主义齐头并进,使中国融入全球经济。这个打算,往好了说也是误入歧途。古德曼写道,离岸外包导致了可预见的美国工作岗位流失,而旨在帮助受到全球贸易负面影响的美国人的项目却资金不足。

What remains to be seen is whether the new policy responses can win over not just American activists and intellectuals, but also American consumers who tend to prefer lower costs over all else and who far outnumber any particular group of truckers, cattle ranchers or union workers squeezed by the economic pressures of a long, lean supply chain. The W.T.O. may have lost, but democracy will also have its say.

我们拭目以待的是,新的政策应对措施能否不仅赢得美国活动人士和知识分子的支持,而且还能赢得美国消费者的支持,因为后者往往喜欢低价胜过一切,而他们的数量也远远超过在漫长的精益供应链带来的经济压力下处境艰难的卡车司机、牧场主或工会工人等特定群体。WTO可能输了,但民主还有话要说。

ONE WEEK TO CHANGE THE WORLD: An Oral History of the 1999 WTO Protests | By DW Gibson | Simon & Schuster | 354 pp. | Paperback, $19.99

《改变世界的一周:1999年反WTO抗议口述史》| D·W· 吉布森著 | Simon & Schuster出版| 354页 | Paperback, 售价19.99美元

HOW THE WORLD RAN OUT OF EVERYTHING: Inside the Global Supply Chain | By Peter S. Goodman | Mariner | 406 pp. | $30

《世界是如何耗尽一切的:全球供应链幕后》| 彼得·S·古德曼著 | Mariner出版 | 406页 | 售价30美元

NIRAJ CHOKSHI, CHRISTINE CHUNG

2024年6月20日

在航班起飞前,可能会出现各种各样的机械故障或保养问题。 Lucy Hewett for The New York Times

Smoke in the cabin. A tire blowout. A cracked windshield. No shortage of problems can affect a flight, fueling traveler anxiety and contributing to thousands of daily delays and cancellations around the world.

机舱内冒烟。轮胎爆裂。挡风玻璃破裂。影响航班的问题层出不穷,让旅客焦虑不安,并导致全球每天有数千个航班延误和取消。

But for all of the frustration and alarm such events cause, it can be difficult to interpret and understand their severity. Here’s how aviation safety experts say travelers should think about disruptions when they occur.

这类事件引发了极大的不满和恐慌,要解释和理解它们的严重程度却并不容易。在这里,航空安全专家指出,当出现故障时,旅行者应该如何看待它们。

Problems happen.

首先要明确一点,出问题是难免的。

Several alarming air travel incidents have made headlines in recent weeks — a sharp plunge toward an ocean, an unnerving wobble that damaged the tail of a plane and an aborted departure after an apparent engine fire.

最近几周里,几起令人担忧的航空旅行事件成了新闻头条——一次是飞机向海面急剧俯冲,一次是令人胆寒的晃动损坏了飞机的尾翼,以及引擎起火导致放弃起飞。

But the most common mishaps and malfunctions, even if hair-raising, are not typically severe, experts said.

但专家表示,那些最为常见的事故和故障即使听起来让人害怕,通常也并不严重。

A hydraulic leak, for example, is a familiar occurrence that pilots take seriously, but it is not as disruptive as it may sound. That’s because planes have backup hydraulic systems, which are used to power equipment like the landing gear, brakes, wing flaps and flight controls, allowing planes to take off, fly and land. A plane veering off a runway, in what is known as a runway excursion, makes for captivating video and a possibly terrifying experience for those on board. But it doesn’t necessarily cause significant damage to an airplane or threaten the safety of those on board.

例如,液压泄漏是飞行员非常重视的常见故障,但它并不像听起来那样具有破坏性。这是因为飞机上有备用液压系统,为起落架、刹车、机翼襟翼和飞控系统等设备提供动力,使飞机能够起飞、飞行和降落。一架飞机偏离跑道,拍成视频看起来会很刺激,对机上的人来说可能也是一次可怕的经历。但它并不一定会给飞机造成严重损害,威胁到机上人员的安全。

The same is true of the wide range of mechanical or maintenance issues that can come up before takeoff, which might force a pilot to hold a plane at its gate or return to the gate from taxiing. Those incidents are important to understand and address, but they are often minor, experts said.

同样,起飞前可能出现的各种机械故障或保养问题允许会迫使飞行员将飞机停在登机口,或者从滑行中返回登机口。专家表示,弄清并解决这些故障很重要,但它们通常都是可控的小问题。

“The pilots are saying, ‘I’ve been highly trained, I’m highly educated in this airplane, and we have to return to the gate and get the experts involved out of an abundance of caution,’” said Shawn Pruchnicki, a former airline pilot and an assistant professor at the Center for Aviation Studies at Ohio State University. “That is the system working perfectly. That’s a good thing.”

“飞行员说,‘我受过严格的训练,对这架飞机了如指掌,出于谨慎考虑,我们必须回到登机口让专家参与进来,’”前航空公司飞行员、俄亥俄州立大学航空研究中心助理教授肖恩·普鲁奇尼基表示。“这就是整个系统在完美运作。这是一件好事。”

Sometimes, such problems can derail a flight or take an airplane out of commission. But in other cases, they can be fixed quickly. And because airplanes are packed with fail-safes, there are times when a flight with a malfunctioning system can safely proceed simply by relying on one or more backups instead.

有时,这类问题可能会导致航班取消或使飞机停止使用。但一般情况下飞机可以很快修好。由于飞机配备了多重安全系统,有时即使某个系统发生故障,只需依靠一个或多个备用系统,就可以安全地继续飞行。

Flying is a complex, gravity-defying feat that’s repeated thousands of times each day in a wide range of conditions. So travelers should not be surprised when things go wrong, said Amy Pritchett, a pilot and professor of aerospace engineering at Pennsylvania State University.

飞行是一项复杂的、挑战重力的壮举,每天都要在各种条件下重复无数次。宾夕法尼亚州立大学航空航天工程学教授、飞行员艾米·普里切特说,因此当出现问题时,旅客不应该感到惊讶。

“Little small components will always start to burn out or break,” she said. “There will always be potholes in the pavement in the taxiway that jostles something. There’s always questions of whether the weather is good enough to fly, whether you might hit turbulence or not. All these things are sources of variability that need to be actively managed.”

“总会有小部件烧坏或损坏,”她说。“滑行道上的路面总会有坑坑洼洼,导致一些碰撞。总会有这样的问题:天气是否适合飞行,是否会遇到气流。所有这些都是变数,需要积极管理。”

Flying is safe.

飞行是安全的。

Another thing for travelers to keep in mind is that serious flight problems are extremely rare, experts said.

专家说,旅客要记住的另一件事是,严重的飞行问题极为罕见。

Flying is safer than driving or traveling by train in part because safety is built into the design of everything from air traffic control to the airplane itself. Important systems and procedures have backups, there are rarely single points of failure, pilots receive intensive and repeated training, and airlines prepare for a wide range of possible outcomes.

坐飞机比开车或乘火车更安全,部分原因是,从空中交通管制到飞机本身的设计中,安全性都根深蒂固。重要的系统和程序都有备份,很少出现单点故障,飞行员接受强化和反复的培训,航空公司为各种可能的结果做了准备。

“It’s the safest form of transportation ever designed by humankind,” said John Cox, a former airline pilot who runs a safety consulting firm. “Be careful driving to the airport.”

“这是人类有史以来设计的最安全的交通工具,”约翰·考克斯说,他曾是一名飞行员,现在经营着一家安全咨询公司。“开车去机场要注意安全。”

Over the past several decades, commercial aviation safety in the United States has improved more than fortyfold, according to a 2022 analysis of commercial aviation safety conducted by the National Academies.

根据美国国家科学院2022年对商业航空安全的分析,在过去的几十年里,美国的商业航空安全提高了40多倍。

According to the National Transportation Safety Board, typical causes of accidents include turbulence, hard landings, collisions on the ground with other planes or vehicles, and component failures, such as a malfunctioning wing flap or engine.

据美国国家运输安全委员会称,典型的事故原因包括湍流、硬着陆、在地面与其他飞机或车辆相撞,以及襟翼或发动机等部件发生故障。

Flying is so safe in part because the industry generally responds to every problem, even those that pose little threat. In the United States, airlines, manufacturers and agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration and the N.T.S.B. are constantly monitoring and reviewing risks and hazards in air travel.

飞行之所以如此安全,部分原因是航空业通常会对所有问题做出反应,即使是那些几乎不构成威胁的问题。在美国,航空公司、制造商以及联邦航空管理局和国家运输安全委员会等机构都在不断监测和审查航空旅行中的风险和危害。

“The level of systems that are in place monitoring current-day commercial air transport are profound,” Ms. Pritchett said. But this doesn’t mean that anyone involved can lose vigilance in assessing the possibility of danger, she added.

“目前,监控商业航空运输的系统水平非常高,”普里切特说。但她还说,这并不意味着任何参与者在评估危险可能性时可以放松警惕。

And while trips are occasionally cut short, experts said, diverting a flight from its destination generally reflects due caution by pilots, airlines and air traffic controllers, not a life-threatening emergency. “Could we continue to our destination?” said Kenneth Byrnes, a pilot and an associate professor who leads the flight training department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “Yes, but is it the safest thing to do?”

专家们表示,虽然行程偶尔会被缩短,但航班改道通常反映了飞行员、航空公司和空中交通管制员应有的谨慎,而不是危及生命的紧急情况。“我们能继续飞往目的地吗?可以,但这样做是最安全的吗?”肯尼斯·伯恩斯说。他是一名飞行员,也是安柏瑞德航空大学飞行训练系的副教授。

00plane trouble 02 ctmg master1050飞行是一项复杂的、挑战重力的壮举,每天都要在各种条件下重复无数次。

Placing blame is complicated.

追责非常复杂。

Because aviation is complex and defined by redundancy, problems rarely have a singular cause. Instead, most serious problems — even catastrophic ones — are a result of multiple factors.

因为航空业非常复杂,而且有冗余设计的特征,所以问题很少有单一的原因。相反,大多数最严重的问题——甚至是灾难性的问题——是多种因素共同作用的结果。

“There’s never a smoking gun, so to speak,” Mr. Pruchnicki said. “There’s never this ‘aha’ moment, when we’re going through wreckage or we’re going through records and we say, ‘Ah, I found the single reason this plane crashed.’”

“可以说,从来没有所谓的确凿证据,”普鲁奇尼基说。“当我们检查残骸或记录时,从来没有哪个时刻,让我们可以说,‘啊哈,我找到了飞机坠毁的唯一原因。’”

Take the episode early last year in which two planes nearly hit each other on a runway at Kennedy International Airport. The National Transportation Safety Board found that several factors had contributed to what could have otherwise been a disaster.

以去年年初肯尼迪国际机场跑道上两架飞机差点相撞的事件为例。国家运输安全委员会发现,有几个因素导致了这场本来可能成为灾难的事故。

The pilots of one plane were distracted as they proceeded down the wrong taxiway, the agency found. At the same time, the air traffic controller who gave them instructions didn’t notice because his focus was elsewhere. And a runway status light activated too late to warn the pilots of the mistake, the agency concluded.

该机构发现,其中一架飞机上的飞行员分心了,沿着错误的滑行道行驶。与此同时,给他们下达指令的空中交通管制员没有注意到,因为他的注意力在别处。该机构还得出结论,跑道状态灯启动得太晚,未能警告飞行员注意这一错误。

In investigating such incidents, placing blame is not only difficult, but also generally discouraged, experts said. Kyra Dempsey, who writes about aviation accidents in a blog, Admiral Cloudberg, said that “the blameless post-mortem is a cornerstone of modern aviation safety,” facilitating an open safety culture in which people are willing to report concerns.

专家表示,在调查此类事件时,追究责任不仅困难,而且总体而言不鼓励那么做。在博客Admiral Cloudberg上撰写有关航空事故文章的凯拉·登普西说:“不做出指责的事后调查是现代航空安全的基石,”它有助于形成一种开放的安全文化,让人们愿意报告自己的担忧

Mr. Cox, the pilot turned consultant, said that “aviation accident investigators are really more interested in understanding cause than assigning blame because our job is to see that it doesn’t happen again.” Instead, “the lawyers get into blame,” he said.

“其实,航空事故调查人员更感兴趣的是了解原因,而不是追究责任,因为我们的工作是确保这样的事情不再发生,”从飞行员转型为顾问的考克斯说。“律师们倒是更热衷于追责。”

Perspective is important.

全面看问题很重要。

When a mishap occurs, it’s important to keep some context in mind, experts said.

专家说,当事故发生时,重要的是要联系一些背景来看待它。

A casual observer might notice, for example, that many problems seem to affect two types of planes: Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s. But those plane families make up more than half of the commercial jets in service, so they are naturally reflected most in news coverage.

例如,一个不经意的观察者可能会注意到,许多问题似乎都影响到波音737和空客A320这两种飞机。但这些飞机系列占现役商用飞机的一半以上,因此自然在新闻报道中反映得最多。

Experts also warned against confirmation bias. When an airline or a manufacturer figures in a headline-generating episode, the media and the public tend to be on alert for other problems involving the company, even those that have little to do with the company or that might not even be significant enough to attract much attention from safety agencies.

专家们也警告了认知偏见的问题。当一家航空公司或制造商成为新闻主角时,媒体和公众往往会开始警惕涉及该公司的其他问题,即使这些问题与该公司关系不大,或者甚至可能不足以引起安全机构的太多关注。

“When something happens, you need time to discover and learn about exactly what happened, and why did it happen,” said Jeff Guzzetti, a former accident investigator for the F.A.A. and the N.T.S.B. “That’s something that you can’t do in a news cycle or even two news cycles.”

“当某件事发生时,你需要时间去发现和了解到底发生了什么,以及为什么会发生,”前联邦航空局和国家运输安全委员会的事故调查员杰夫·古泽蒂说,“这是一个新闻周期甚至两个新闻周期之内无法做到的。”

It can take the N.T.S.B. months, and sometimes more than a year, to conduct investigations, which culminate with safety recommendations to prevent future accidents.

国家运输安全委员会可能需要数月,有时甚至一年多的时间来进行调查,最后提出安全建议,以防止未来事故的发生。

After a fuselage panel blew off a 737 Max during a flight in January, Boeing was intensely scrutinized, and rightly so, experts said. But several also said they received many calls from reporters in the months afterward seeking comment on problems involving Boeing planes in cases that had little to do with the company.

专家表示,今年1月,一架737 Max飞机在飞行过程中机身面板脱落,随后波音受到了严格审查,这是理所当然的。但也有几位专家表示,在那之后的几个月里,他们接到了很多记者的电话,要求就涉及波音飞机的问题发表评论,而那些问题与波音公司关系不大。

“Just because it’s a Boeing airplane that has a mechanical problem doesn’t necessarily mean that has anything to do with Boeing,” Mr. Pruchnicki said.

“波音飞机出现机械故障,并不一定意味着这与波音公司有关,”普鲁奇尼基说。

In the episode involving the fuselage panel, the plane was virtually new, focusing attention on the manufacturer. But a manufacturer is probably not at fault when a problem occurs with a plane that was delivered years earlier and has been flying safely since, experts said.

在涉及机身面板的事件中,那架飞机实际上是新的,因此人们的注意力集中在制造商身上。但专家表示,如果一架多年前交付、此后一直安全飞行的飞机出现问题,制造商可能没有过错。

黄瑞黎

2024年6月20日

俄罗斯总统普京在访问东南亚国家越南期间,希望巩固俄罗斯与越南的关系。 Pool photo by Natalia Kolesnikova

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wrapped up a state visit to one ally, North Korea, and moved on to another, Vietnam, arriving early Thursday local time hoping to shore up crucial partnerships in the region as he wages a protracted war in Ukraine.

俄罗斯总统普京结束了对盟友朝鲜的国事访问,前去拜访另一个盟友越南。他于当地时间周四凌晨抵达,希望在乌克兰旷日持久的战争期间,加强与该地区关键伙伴的关系。

Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine has left him isolated from the West, and his need for munitions to fight that war has pushed him closer to North Korea and its leader, Kim Jong-un. The two leaders have bonded over their common historical opponent, the United States, and on Wednesday revived a Cold War-era mutual defense pledge between their nations.

普京在乌克兰的战争让他被西方孤立,而他对战争弹药的需求,让他与朝鲜及其领导人金正恩走得更近。两国领导人因历史上共同的对手美国而建立了深厚的联系,并于周三恢复了两国在冷战时期的共同防御承诺

In Vietnam, by contrast, Mr. Putin — who landed in Hanoi, according to Russian state media — will meet with officials who have recently forged deeper bonds with Washington. But Moscow has long been Hanoi’s main source of weapons, and Mr. Putin is keen to hold on to that position.

据俄罗斯官方媒体报道,普京已抵达河内。相比之下,在越南,他将会见最近与华盛顿建立了更紧密关系的官员。但莫斯科长期以来一直是越南主要的武器供应来源,普京也希望保持这一地位。

It is Mr. Putin’s fifth visit to Vietnam and follows trips last year by President Biden and President Xi Jinping of China, two leaders who sought assurances from Hanoi that it was not taking the other’s side.

这是普京第五次访问越南。去年,美国总统拜登中国国家主席习近平都曾访问越南,两位领导人都曾希望河内保证不会站在对方一边。

For Vietnam, Mr. Putin’s trip will be an opportunity to solidify ties with Russia, its most important defense partner. Even though it has upgraded relations with the United States, Vietnam was still looking for secret ways last year to purchase Russian military equipment in contravention of American sanctions.

对越南来说,普京此行将是巩固与俄罗斯关系的一个机会。俄罗斯是越南最重要的防务伙伴。尽管越南升级了与美国的关系,但它去年仍在寻找秘密途径购买俄罗斯的军事装备,这违反美国的制裁措施。

Washington has rebuked Hanoi for inviting the Russian leader, saying, “No country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalize his atrocities.”

华盛顿指责河内邀请俄罗斯领导人,称“任何国家都不应该给普京一个平台来宣传他的侵略战争,否则就会让他将自己的暴行正常化”。

This week, Vietnam’s newly installed president, To Lam, told the local Russian envoy that Hanoi “always considers Russia one of the top priority partners in its foreign policy.”

本周,越南新上任的国家主席苏林对俄罗斯驻越大使说,河内“始终将俄罗斯视为越南外交政策中的优先合作伙伴之一”。

19putin vietnam explainer 06 hpvw master1050周二,工人在河内的列宁塑像前布置花盆。

Here’s what to know about relations between Moscow and Hanoi.

关于莫斯科和河内之间的关系,需要知道的事情如下。

Russia and Vietnam have deep military ties.

俄罗斯和越南之间有着深厚的军事关系。

In 1950, the Soviet Union was among the first countries to give diplomatic recognition to what was then the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, or North Vietnam. Over decades, Moscow became Vietnam’s biggest donor, providing military aid when Hanoi was fighting its wars against France and the United States.

1950年,苏联是最早在外交上承认当时的越南民主共和国(即北越)的国家之一。几十年来,莫斯科成为越南最大的援助国,在河内与法国和美国作战时提供军事援助。

The defense relationship has underpinned many ties between the two countries, which over the years also shared communist ideology. Mr. Putin arrived in Vietnam with his new defense minister, Andrei R. Belousov, underscoring how security matters are central to the visit.

防务关系支撑着这两个拥有共同共产主义意识形态的国家之间的许多联系。此次,普京与新任国防部长安德烈·别洛乌索夫一同抵达越南,凸显出安全问题是访问的核心。

Russian equipment represents about 60 percent to 70 percent of Vietnam’s defense arsenal, according to Nguyen The Phuong, who studies Vietnam’s military affairs at the University of New South Wales in Australia. Russia has supplied Vietnam with coastal defense missile systems, six Kilo-class submarines, fighter jets and many more lethal weapons.

澳大利亚新南威尔士大学研究越南军事的阮世芳(音)表示,俄罗斯装备占越南国防武器库的60%至70%。俄罗斯向越南提供了海岸防御导弹系统、六艘基洛级潜艇、战斗机和许多的致命武器。

19putin vietnam explainer 03 hpvw master10502020 年,在俄罗斯阿拉比诺举行的峰会上,越南军事领导人参观俄罗斯T-90MS坦克。

Nearly all of Vietnam’s naval vessels come from Russia, according to Mr. Phuong. Russia’s T-90 tanks, which were the last-known major purchase of Russian arms by Vietnam in 2016, form the backbone of Vietnam’s armored forces, he added. This means that Vietnam is still going to be reliant on Russia in the years to come.

阮世芳说,越南几乎所有的海军舰艇都来自俄罗斯。他还说,俄罗斯的T-90坦克是越南在2016年最后一次购买的俄罗斯武器,它构成了越南装甲部队的支柱。这意味着越南在未来几年仍将依赖俄罗斯。

Vietnam has looked beyond Russia for weapons.

越南从俄罗斯以外寻求武器。

But the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow has increased concerns in Hanoi about Russia’s reliability as a supplier, and made it increasingly awkward for Vietnam to continue dealing with Russia as it engages with the West.

但西方对莫斯科实施的制裁,令河内担心俄罗斯是否依然是可靠的供应国,并使越南在与西方接触的同时继续与俄罗斯打交道变得越来越尴尬。

Many of Vietnam’s leaders are also aware of the Russian military’s struggles against Ukraine — footage has shown the T-90 tanks being blown apart by drones used by Ukraine. They are also cognizant of Russia’s deepening relationship with China, which they regard as a threat because of a longstanding territorial dispute in the South China Sea.

许多越南领导人也很清楚俄罗斯军队在乌克兰的困境——有视频显示,T-90坦克被乌克兰使用的无人机炸毁。他们也意识到,俄罗斯与中国的关系正在加深。由于中越在南海存在长期领土争端,他们将中俄关系视为一种威胁。

In recent months, it has turned to countries like South Korea, Japan and the Czech Republic as alternative sources of weapons. It has also tried to build up its own defense industry. It has looked to India, another former Soviet ally, to retrofit some of its weapons.

最近几个月,越南把目光转向韩国、日本和捷克共和国等国,作为武器的替代来源。它还试图建立自己的国防工业。它希望另一个苏联的前盟友印度能改造它的部分武器。

The United States has been actively offering more weapons to Vietnam, with senior officials traveling to the country in recent months. But analysts say the top echelons of Vietnam’s defense leadership remain suspicious of Washington. They are reluctant to tie their fate to a country where arms sales have to be passed through a Congress that could make the deal contingent on human rights.

美国一直在积极向越南提供更多武器,美国高级官员最近几个月访问了越南。但分析人士说,越南国防高层仍对华盛顿持怀疑态度。他们不愿意把自己的命运与一个军售必须经过国会批准的国家绑在一起,因为国会可能会把人权作为交易的条件。

The two nations have joint ventures in the oil business.

俄罗斯和越南在石油业务方面建有合资企业。

Russia has a significant stake in Vietnam’s lucrative oil and gas sector. Vietsovpetro, a joint venture run by Russia’s Zarubezhneft and Vietnam’s state-owned PetroVietnam, operates Vietnam’s largest oil field, Bach Ho.

俄罗斯在越南利润丰厚的石油和天然气行业内拥有大量股份。由俄罗斯扎鲁别日石油公司和越南国家油气集团组建的合资企业越苏石油公司经营着越南最大的油田白虎油田。

The profits from Vietsovpetro have generated millions of dollars for both Russia and Vietnam. Zarubezhneft and Gazprom, another Russian state-owned energy firm, are also involved in oil exploration projects in Vietnam.

越苏石油公司的利润为俄罗斯和越南带来了数百万美元的收入。扎鲁别日石油公司和另一家俄罗斯国有能源公司俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司也参与了越南的石油勘探项目。

19putin vietnam explainer 04 hpvw master1050越南国家油气集团位于越南头顿的油罐。越南国家油气集团与俄罗斯一家国有能源公司的合资企业为两国各自带来了数以百万计美元的收益。

For Moscow, these projects come at a time when Russian oil and gas exports to Europe have plummeted following the imposition of sanctions from the European Union. But they have irked Beijing because they are in waters that it contends are part of its territory.

对莫斯科来说,这些项目正值欧盟实施制裁之后,俄罗斯对欧洲的石油和天然气出口大幅下降之际。但这些项目引起了北京的不满,因为它们位于中国声称属于其领土的水域。

Before the coronavirus pandemic, Vietnam was also a particularly attractive destination for Russian tourists. In 2019, Russia sent the sixth-highest number of tourists of any nation to Vietnam, just after the United States. But the numbers dropped during the pandemic and fell further after Vietnam stopped direct flights in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Direct flights resumed this year.

在新冠病毒大流行之前,越南也深受俄罗斯游客的青睐。2019年,俄罗斯向越南输送的游客数量在所有国家中排名第六,仅次于美国。但在疫情期间,这一数字有所下降,2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,越南停止了两国直航,游客数量进一步下降。直航于今年恢复。

Mr. Putin is seen as popular with the Vietnamese brass.

普京受到越南高层欢迎。

Beginning in the 1950s, thousands of Vietnamese Communist Party officials, top business officials, doctors, teachers and soldiers were trained in the Soviet Union and Russia. That list includes the current party chief, Nguyen Phu Trong.

从20世纪50年代开始,数以千计的越南共产党官员、商界高官、医生、教师和士兵在苏联和俄罗斯接受培训。其中包括现任越共总书记阮富仲。

19putin vietnam explainer 05 hpvw master1050越南河内一家出售俄罗斯纪念品的商店里摆放着越南共产党领导人阮富仲与普京握手的照片。

But some felt those deep ties were ignored by the last Soviet leader, Mikhail S. Gorbachev, and Russia’s first president, Boris N. Yeltsin.t

但有些人认为,苏联最后一任领导人戈尔巴乔夫和俄罗斯首任总统叶利钦忽视了这种深厚的关系。

“The Vietnamese feel that Gorbachev in the 1980s abandoned Vietnam in an effort to improve relations with China; Yeltsin, all through the 90s, barely paid any attention to Vietnam,” said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Once Putin was in power in 2000, he gave a lot of face to it. So the Vietnamese are grateful for that.”

“越南人认为戈尔巴乔夫在上世纪80年代为改善与中国的关系而抛弃了越南;在整个90年代,叶利钦几乎没有关注过越南,”新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所高级研究员伊恩·斯托里表示。“2000年普京上台后很给越南面子。所以越南人对此很感激。”

He added that the Vietnamese leadership liked Mr. Putin because “he put Vietnam-Russia relations back on track.”

他还说,越南领导人喜欢普京,因为“他让越俄关系回到了正轨”。

DAVE ITZKOFF

2014年12月19日

左起黛安娜·邦、罗根和弗兰科在《采访》中,由罗根和埃文·戈德堡导演。 Ed Araquel/Columbia Pictures

In a previous film, Seth Rogen and James Franco experienced a comic vision of the end of the world, but their new movie, “The Interview,” has had serious fallout, including a devastating corporate hack and threats against theaters showing the film.

塞斯·罗根(Seth Rogen)和詹姆斯·弗兰科(James Franco,也译作付兰兰)在他们的上一部影片里体验了一回喜剧版的世界末日,但他俩的新片《采访》(The Interview,也译作《刺杀金正恩》)带来了严重后果,包括公司遭到灾难性的黑客入侵,放映该片的影院也受到威胁。

Directed by Mr. Rogen and his creative partner, Evan Goldberg, “The Interview” casts Mr. Franco as Dave Skylark, a fatuous celebrity TV journalist who is granted an interview with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader. Their impending on-air sit-down strains Skylark’s bond with his loyal producer (Mr. Rogen) and attracts the attention of the C.I.A., which wants him to assassinate Mr. Kim (played by Randall Park).

《采访》由罗根和他的创作搭档埃文·戈德堡(Evan Goldberg)导演,由弗兰科饰演主角戴夫·斯凯拉克(Dave Skylark)——一个糊涂的著名电视记者,得到机会采访北朝鲜领导人金正恩。这场即将到来的现场采访令斯凯拉克与他忠诚的制作人(罗根饰)之间关系变得紧张,还招来了中央情报局的关注,中情局想让他去暗杀金正恩(由兰多尔·朴[Randall Park]饰演)。

In addition to mocking news-gathering and geopolitics, the movie pokes fun at the 15-year friendship of Mr. Rogen and Mr. Franco, which began on the cult NBC series “Freaks and Geeks” and has continued in hit films like “This Is the End.”

除了嘲讽如今的新闻采集和地缘政治,这部电影还拿罗根与弗兰克15年的好基友关系寻开心,两人的友情始于NBC的小众电视剧《怪胎与书呆》(Freaks and Geeks),一直延续到《世界末日》(This Is the End)等热门电影。

The real-life government of North Korea did not appreciate the sentiment of “The Interview,” denouncing it as a “most blatant act of terrorism and war” and threatening to undertake “a merciless countermeasure.” There is suspicion that the movie is a catalyst for the hacking of computers at Sony, an act that North Korea has hailed as “a righteous deed” while denying responsibility.

现实生活中的北朝鲜政府不怎么欣赏《采访》中的情趣,称它是“最露骨的恐怖主义与战争”,威胁对之实施“无情的报复”。有人怀疑这部电影导致了对索尼公司电脑的黑客袭击,北朝鲜称黑客的行动是“正义行为”,但拒绝对此负责。

The hack itself has resulted in the release of sensitive studio information, including the film’s $44 million budget and other, more embarrassing details, a ripple effect that has astounded the film’s creators. “It is very surreal,” Mr. Rogen said in an interview on Monday amid rapidly changing circumstances that have led them to cancel several media appearances. “It’s not something that we expected at all.”

黑客行为导致公司的许多敏感信息泄露,其中也包括这部电影的4400万美元预算,除此之外,还有更加令人尴尬的若干细节,其连锁反应令影片创作者们大为震惊。“这种感觉非常超现实,”罗根说,随着境况急转直下,他们不得不取消了若干媒体见面会,但还是在周一接受了采访。“我们根本没有预料到这种事。”

Mr. Rogen and Mr. Franco first sat down with The Times to talk about the movie before the effects of the hacking were fully known, and they were more blithely amused by their handiwork. Here are edited excerpts from that discussion and a follow-up conversation with Mr. Rogen.

目前黑客袭击的后果尚不完全分明,罗根与弗兰克接受了《纽约时报》的当面采访,谈起这部电影。对于自己的作品,他们更多的感受是欢乐。谈话经过编辑节选,事后补充采访过罗根。

“The Interview” was intended as a fun, goofball comedy. How do you feel about the global consequences it’s had?

《采访》的本意是拍一部疯狂好玩的喜剧。你们怎么看待它引起的全球性后果?

SETH ROGEN No one has officially told me our movie, 100 percent, has proven to be the cause of any of this stuff. We’re not the first people to shed light on how crazy North Korea is, the myths that exist there and the oddities of the regime. “The Daily Show,” on a nightly basis, makes jokes about real-life events. “South Park” does it on a weekly basis.

塞斯·罗根:没有人正式通知我说,完全是我们的电影引发了这些后果。在我们之前早有人拍摄过北朝鲜有多么疯狂,那里有着什么样的神话,以及那个政权的奇人怪事。《每日秀》(The Daily Show)每天都在拿现实生活中的事开玩笑,《南方公园》(South Park)也是每星期都这么干。

21INTERVIEW master1050
詹姆斯·弗兰科与塞斯·罗根。 Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Do you think a film about an assassination attempt on Kim Jong-un and a hack on the studio releasing it could be unrelated?

你们拍了一部关于暗杀金正恩的电影,而黑客袭击了发行这部影片的电影公司,你们觉得这两件事之间可能毫无关系吗?

ROGEN I have no idea. It could be some hacker that knew the situation with the movie and was using this as an opportunity to mess with a giant corporation. Clearly, whoever did it has knowledge of the movie’s existence. But by the time it happened, millions and millions of people who could have many different motives had knowledge of the movie’s existence.

罗根:我不知道。有可能是了解这部电影情况的黑客利用它作为契机去搞乱一家大公司。但是当这件事发生的时候,成千上百万有着各种动机的人都知道这部影片的存在。

Even before “The Interview” was denounced by North Korea, was it controversial that you made Kim Jong-un its villain?

在北朝鲜谴责《采访》之前,你们对于把金正恩塑造为反面人物这一点有没有争议?

ROGEN There was a lot of discussion. But it’s not an edgy position to take. It’s not like, “Well, politically, you’ve got to look at both sides.” He is bad. It’s controversial to him. But to everyone else, it’s fine. To their credit, [Sony] let us do it.

罗根:我们做了很多讨论,但是这并不是一个非主流的立场。不需要说,“这个从政治上,你得一分为二地看问题。”他就是坏人。这一点只对他来说是有争议的,但其他人觉得这没问题,值得称道的是,他们(索尼)让我们拍了这部片子。

Was there anything the studio wouldn’t allow?

有没有什么事是电影公司不允许的?

ROGEN They made us digitally change some photos and images, because it was decided they weren’t [legally] cleared. We couldn’t source the photographer in North Korea who took the photograph of Kim Il-sung [Kim Jong-un’s grandfather] 65 years ago. He could sue us. There was a moment where they were like: “They’ve threatened war over the movie. You kill him [Kim Jong-un]. Would you consider not killing him?” And we were like, “Nope.”

罗根:他们允许我们用数码手段修改了一些照片和图像,因为他们决定不(在法律上)公开宣布这一点。我们没法给65年前为金日成(金正恩的祖父)拍照的北朝鲜摄影师署名。他可以起诉我们。有那么一阵,公司说:“因为这部电影,他们威胁要开战,你们杀死了他(金正恩)。你们能不能不杀他?”我们说:“不能。”

Were you frightened by the initial ambiguous threats that North Korea made?

北朝鲜一开始做出了模糊的威胁,你们害怕了吗?

JAMES FRANCO They went after Obama as much as us. Because [they think] Obama actually produced the movie.

詹姆斯·弗兰克:他们追着奥巴马,也追着我们。因为(他们觉得)其实是奥巴马拍了这部电影。

ROGEN They don’t have freedom of speech there, so they don’t get that people make stuff.

罗根:他们没有言论自由,所以他们不明白人们会编造故事。

There was a period during September and October when Kim Jong-un wasn’t seen in public. Were you concerned this could affect the movie?

九月到十月期间,有段时间金正恩没在公众面前亮相,你们有没有觉得这会影响这部电影?

21JPINTERVIEW3 master1050北朝鲜领导人金正恩,摄于本月初。

ROGEN It was a weird position to be in, where you were concerned for Kim Jong-un’s safety, for your own financial well-being. [Laughter] Throughout this process, we made relationships with certain people who work in the government as consultants, who I’m convinced are in the C.I.A. After he had been gone for like a week, I emailed a guy, and was like, “What’s the deal?” The response I got was: “He’s having ankle surgery. He’ll be back in a couple weeks.” And then two weeks later, it’s like: He had ankle surgery; he was back.

罗根:那种局面很奇怪,你会因为自己的财务状况而担心金正恩的安危(笑)。整个过程中,我们都和某些在政府当顾问的人保持联系,我相信他们肯定是给中情局干活。金正恩消失了大约一星期的时候,我给一个家伙发电子邮件,问:“什么情况?”得到的回答是:“他做了脚踝手术,得休养两星期。”然后过了两星期,结果是:他做了脚踝手术,他回来了。

FRANCO Seth knew before The New York Times!

弗兰科:塞斯比《纽约时报》先知道这件事!

It’s like when the Rock knew, before everyone else, that Osama bin Laden had been killed.

这有点像“巨石”(the Rock,影星Dwayne Johnson的绰号——译注)比其他人都提前知道奥萨马·本·拉登(Osama bin Laden)的死讯。

FRANCO He was there.

弗兰科:他就在现场。

ROGEN He’s the secret shooter. That would be the best cross-promotional campaign of all time. “Go see my new movie: I killed Osama bin Laden.” I’d see every “Fast and Furious” movie for the rest of my life.

罗根:他是秘密射击手,这可是史上最好的交叉宣传了。“去看我的新片吧,我杀了奥萨马·本·拉登。”这下我肯定会看《速度与激情》(Fast and Furious)的所有续集了。

Was “The Interview” created specifically as a vehicle for the two of you?

《采访》是为你俩量身定制的吗?

ROGEN The idea was around for a long time. The first script was about Kim Jong-il [Mr. Kim’s father]. In my head, the Dave Skylark character was much more normal and grounded — more like Ryan Seacrest. We thought maybe it would be a more serious role, and the producer would be the funny one. Wouldn’t it be funny to pair me with a more serious actor, like Matt Damon? And then Dan Sterling wrote a draft of the script, and the character was just way more crazy than we thought. And that’s when we started to think Franco could do it.

罗根:我们思考这个创意已经有一段时间了。最初的剧本是关于金正日的(金正恩的父亲)。在我头脑里,戴夫·斯凯拉克这个角色应该更普通、更实际一点——更像瑞安·西克莱斯特(Ryan Seacrest)。我们觉得他应该是个更严肃的角色,制作人那个角色应该更有趣一点。给我配一个马特·达蒙(Matt Damon)之类的严肃演员不是很好玩吗?后来丹·斯特林(Dan Sterling)写了剧本草稿,主持人这个角色比我们想象的要疯狂得多。然后我们就开始考虑让弗兰科来演这个角色。

FRANCO Crazier, but also more grounded. With these movies, the secret ingredient is the friendship. Even on “This Is the End,” my character was shallow, he cared about his house and his clothes more than his friends. Then you just make him care about this [Rogen] character. Then it becomes a love triangle with Kim Jong-un.

弗兰科:更疯狂,但也更实际。在这些电影里,友谊是隐秘的成分。就算在《世界末日》里,我的角色很肤浅,他在乎自己的房子和衣服多于在乎朋友。然后你让他去关心那个(罗根的)角色。这和金正恩形成了一个有爱的三角关系。

21JPINTERVIEW4 master1050弗兰科、罗根和杰·巴鲁切尔在《世界末日》中。

ROGEN Then his whole motivation to do the mission is just to make me happy, essentially — just to placate me enough that I won’t leave him.

罗根:其实他做这个任务的全部目的就是为了让我高兴——就是为了安抚我,好让我别离开他。

Did you know you’d be friends right away when you met on “Freaks and Geeks”?

你们在《怪胎与书呆》中相遇时,就知道你们会成为朋友吗?

FRANCO I was just writing some poems about it. It sounds silly, but I think they’re actually pretty good. There was a period where Seth, Jason [Segel] and I all went to Jason’s house, and they would sit at one end of the room and smoke weed.

弗兰科:我为这个写过诗。听上去很傻,但我觉得它们还不错。有段时间,塞斯、杰森·席格尔(Jason Segel)和我到杰森家里去,他们坐在屋子一头抽大麻。

ROGEN He literally would sit in the corner. 

罗根:他就坐在角落里。

FRANCO We’d read the scripts a few times, and then there wasn’t that much to read. So we’d just watch Kubrick movies. Seth was writing stuff that we all talked about doing. Today, we would have shot it on our iPhones, at least. But we didn’t have the technology or the wherewithal to get a camera and do our little things.

弗兰克:我们有时读剧本,然后就没什么可读的了。我们就看库布里克(Kubrick)的电影。塞斯写东西,我们都说要拍。换了今天,我们可能至少会用iPhone把这些东西拍下来。但我们当时没有这个技术,也没有钱去弄摄像机拍我们的小东西。

Did that camaraderie continue after the show?

拍片结束后你们还保持着同志情谊吗?

FRANCO There was a point where most people on the show didn’t like me, because I took myself too seriously. I thought I was Marlon Brando or something. Then I pushed Busy [Philipps, a co-star] over, by accident. So everybody didn’t like me, I think, except for Seth.

弗兰科:有那么一段时间,片子里的人都不喜欢我,因为我把自己太当回事了。我觉得自己是马龙·白兰度(Marlon Brando),后来我意外推倒了贝茜·菲利普斯(Busy Philipps,片中的另一位演员)。所以我觉得大家都不喜欢我,除了塞斯。

ROGEN When the show ended, I didn’t talk to you for years. We kind of went our separate ways, for a long time.

罗根:电视剧结束以后,我有好几年都没跟你说话。有好长一段时间,我们各自走上了不同的道路。

FRANCO I ran into Judd [Apatow] at this film festival in Austin. He’s like, “Why don’t you come back to the comedy world?” And I was like, “Yes. I need to change something, because I’m miserable.” I was not happy as an actor, and I went and did “Pineapple Express,” and it was like, Oh, it’s Seth, and I know Seth. I could take huge swings. That made all the difference.

弗兰科:这届奥斯汀电影节上,我遇到了贾德·阿帕图(Judd Apatow)。他说:“你为什么不回到喜剧世界呢?”我说:“对,我需要改变,因为我太悲惨了。”作为演员,我并不开心,然后我就拍了《菠萝快车》(Pineapple Express),感觉就是,啊,这不是塞斯吗,我认识塞斯。我可以做出巨大的改变。这部片子让一切都不一样了。

21JPINTERVIEW5 master1050罗恩和弗兰科在《菠萝快车》中。

Is it helpful to have, in James, an actor who’s also a director in his own right?

|拥有詹姆斯这种做过导演的演员对影片有帮助吗?

ROGEN He gets that we need different stuff. We’ve got to go too far and not far enough. And he’s as much a part of steering that ship as he is an engine. It’s hard for me to focus on everything at once sometimes. And I smoke weed, so that doesn’t help. [Laughter.] Franco remembers better than anyone.

罗根:他理解我们需要不同的东西。我们已经走得很远,但是还不够。他既是一艘大船的舵,同时也是发动机。有时候,我很难同时关注所有东西。我抽大麻,这也没有帮助(笑)。弗兰科的记忆力比别人都好。

FRANCO Because I don’t want to lose good jokes!

弗兰科:因为我不想错过精彩的笑话!

ROGEN Me and Evan, we’re slightly more willing to be, like, “O.K., we got it.” He’s like, “No! You don’t got it! We didn’t do this angle.” It’s constant.

罗根:我和埃文,我们更像这样:“没问题,搞定了。”弗兰科是:“不,你们没搞定!这个角度我们还没拍到。”经常是这样。

FRANCO I know that they pick the best stuff. But I still have this feeling, like, I just want everything to be used. I got the dailies of “Pineapple Express” from David Gordon Green and put a cut together with all the unused jokes.

弗兰科:我知道他们选择了最好的。但我还是有这种感觉:要把一切东西都用上。我从大卫·戈登·格林(David Gordon Green)那里拿来了《菠萝快车》的每日样片,把所有没用上的笑话做了一个剪辑。

In the course of promoting this movie, you’ve parodied Kanye West’s “Bound 2” video, you’ve appeared together on “Naked and Afraid.” Could you do these things if you were just professional acquaintances?

在宣传这部电影的时候,你们戏仿了肯耶·韦斯特的音乐录像《第二轮》,你们还曾经一起在《赤裸与恐惧》(Naked and Afraid)里出现。如果你们只是工作上有关系,还会做这些事情吗?

ROGEN The fact that you’re friends with someone is the most important when you’re promoting a movie. I’ve worked with people I hated, and it’s fine when you’re making a movie. You can go back to your trailer. But when you’re promoting a movie, it’s totally different. You’re seeing them much more in their day-to-day, how-they-actually-are lives.

罗根:你和某人是朋友,这其实是宣传电影时重要的事情。我曾经和我讨厌的人一起工作,拍片子的时候,这没有问题。拍完你就可以回到自己的拖车里去。但宣传一部电影的时候,一切都不一样了。你得天天和他们见很多次面,看到他们真正的日常生活。

FRANCO It’s an adventure.

弗兰科:就像一场冒险。

ROGEN When we did Jimmy Fallon, we were hiding in a cake for 15 minutes.

罗根:我们上吉米·法伦(Jimmy Fallon)的节目时,一起在一个蛋糕里躲了15分钟。

21JPINTERVIEW6 jumbo
弗兰科和罗根在电视剧《怪胎与书呆》中。 Chris Haston/NBC

FRANCO It looked like a big cake. It’s not that big inside.

弗兰科:看上去像块大蛋糕,但里面没那么大。

ROGEN We were in the cake so long, we stopped talking about the fact that we were hiding inside a cake. “What are you doing tomorrow?” “Oh, really, what time’s your flight?” Meanwhile, we’re half-naked inside a cake on the stage of “The Tonight Show.”

罗根:我们在蛋糕里呆了太久,后来就根本不提躲在蛋糕里这回事了。“你明天要干什么?”“啊,真的,你的航班是几点?”其实我们是半裸着躲在“今夜秀”舞台上的蛋糕里。

Are there lessons you’ve learned from each other?

你们从彼此身上学到了什么东西?

FRANCO What I want to learn from Seth is, how do you do the movies that you want to do? Seth’s going to produce this movie I’m going to direct about the making of [the Tommy Wiseau cult movie] “The Room,” and I put myself in his hands. I’m happy to do that. It’s a project where I don’t have to fight every step of the way.

弗兰科:我希望能从塞斯身上学到的是:你是怎么拍出你想拍的电影的?下一部电影,塞斯要当制作人,我来做导演,是关于托米·韦素(Tommy Wiseau)的小众电影《房间》(The Room)的制作过程。我把自己交到他手里了。我很高兴这样做。在这部片子里,我用不着全程每一步都自己奋斗了。

ROGEN We were making “Pineapple Express,” filming the scene where I buy the weed from him, and while we’re sitting around, off camera, I was like, “You know what would be funny is if I said it smells ‘like God’s vagina.’ ” But I was like, “That’s too crazy a joke.” The next take, Franco says it and it destroys.

罗根:拍《菠萝快车》时,我们拍到我向他买大麻那场戏,镜头之外,我说:“你知道,如果我说它闻上去像‘上帝的阴道’那就太逗了。”但我又一想,“算了这个笑话太疯狂。”接下来开拍的时候,弗兰科就说了这句台词,简直太棒了。

FRANCO It’s probably on like a million stoners’ T-shirts.

弗兰科:现在这句话估计已经出现在一百万个瘾君子的T恤衫上了。

ROGEN It was my instinct not to say it, for the exact reason that he did say it. It was really an educational moment. If you’re afraid of something, then you should probably do that thing. We’ve made entire movies based on that philosophy.

罗根:我是凭本能说出来的,他也是因为同样的理由才说了这句台词。这真是一个有教育意义的时刻。如果你害怕某件事,或许你就应该去做这件事。我们的所有电影都是建立在这种哲学上。

Would you have done anything differently in “The Interview” if you knew what would happen before its release?

如果你们知道会有这样的后果,那么会不会给《采访》做点改动?

ROGEN That’s a tough question. I was thinking about that, and I honestly have no idea.

罗根:这个问题很难回答。我也想过,诚实地说,我不知道。

Are you reading the hacked material?

你们看过那些被黑客挖出来的材料吗?

ROGEN I’m trying not to. Ethically, I have problems with reading people’s stolen emails.

罗根:我试着不去看。从道德上来说,我不想去看别人被偷挖出来的电子邮件。

Those emails include an assessment by a Sony executive who criticized “The Interview” as “desperately unfunny.” Does that bother you?

这些邮件中有一份索尼管理人员的评估,批评《采访》“非常无趣”,这会让你觉得不爽吗?

ROGEN I don’t know who’s presumably said what. There’s some people that I would find it very bothersome from. There’s others that I would not care at all what they thought of it. [Laughs.]

罗根:我不知道是谁说的。假如我发现这话是某些人说的,我会觉得这很伤脑筋;假如是另外一些人说的,那我根本就不在乎他们怎么想(笑)。

Are you more careful with your email now?

现在你写电子邮件是不是更小心了?

ROGEN [Laughs.] A little bit. I think everyone is. Aren’t you?

罗根(笑):有一点儿。我觉得大家都是这样的,你不也是吗?


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DAVID E. SANGER

2024年6月20日

周三,俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩在平壤。 Kristina Kormilitsyna/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

As Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China deepened their confrontation with the West over the past decade, they were always united with the United States on at least one geopolitical project: dismantling or at least containing North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.

过去10年里,虽然普京领导的俄罗斯和习近平领导的中国加深了与西方的对抗,但是,在至少在一个地缘政治项目上,它们始终与美国保持一致:拆除或至少遏制朝鲜的核武库。

That is, until the war in Ukraine broke out two years ago.

直到两年前乌克兰战争爆发。

In one of the starkest back-to-the-Cold War moments yet, Mr. Putin’s visit Wednesday to Pyongyang — and the announcement of a pact to provide “mutual assistance in the event of aggression” — underscored that efforts by the world’s three biggest nuclear powers to halt nuclear proliferation by North Korea had been dying for some time. Mr. Putin and Kim Jong-un, the North’s leader, just presided over the memorial service.

普京于周三访问平壤,并宣布了一项“在受到侵略时相互援助”的协议,这是迄今为止最严峻、让人感觉仿佛返回冷战的时刻之一,凸显出世界上三个最大的核大国阻止朝鲜核扩散的努力早已行将就木。普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩刚刚敲响了它的丧钟。

Mr. Putin did far more than drop any semblance of a desire to ensure nuclear restraint. He promised unspecified technological help that — if it includes the few critical technologies Mr. Kim has sought to perfect — could help the North design a warhead that could survive re-entry into the atmosphere and threaten its many adversaries, starting with the United States.

普京所做的远不止放弃了确保朝鲜核克制的任何表面意愿。他承诺提供未具体说明的技术帮助,如果其中包括金正恩试图完善的几项关键技术的话,就可以帮助朝鲜设计出一种能成功重返大气层的弹头,从而威胁到它的许多对手,而美国首当其冲。

Nowhere in the statements made Wednesday was there even a hint that North Korea should give up any of its estimated 50 or 60 nuclear weapons. To the contrary, Mr. Putin declared: “Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen its own defense capability, ensure national security and protect sovereignty” — though he did not address whether those measures included further developing the North’s nuclear weapons.

在周三的声明中,甚至没有任何地方暗示朝鲜应放弃外界估计它拥有的50至60枚核武器中的任何一枚。相反,普京宣称:“平壤有权采取合理措施来加强自身的防御能力,确保国家安全和保护主权”——尽管他没有说明这些措施是否包括进一步发展朝鲜的核武器。

While the shift has been clear-cut, what it could portend is stunning. “This is a renewal of Cold War-era security guarantees, no doubt,” said Victor Cha, who worked on North Korea issues during the George W. Bush administration. Those guarantees date to a now-defunct 1961 mutual defense treaty between Pyongyang and Moscow.

虽然这种转变已经非常明确,但它可能预示的东西依然令人震惊。“毫无疑问,这是冷战时期安全保障的复兴,”在乔治·W·布什政府负责朝鲜问题的车维德说。这些保障可以追溯到1961年平壤和莫斯科之间的共同防御条约,该条约现在已经失效。

This time, however, the agreement “is based on mutual transactional needs — artillery for Russia and high-end military technology” for North Korea, said Mr. Cha, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They are united not by ideology, as in the Cold War, but in common opposition to the U.S. and the Western liberal order,” he added.

然而,这一次的协议“是基于双方的交易需求——俄罗斯得到炮弹,朝鲜得到高端军事技术,”现就职于战略与国际研究中心的车维德说。“他们不是像冷战时期那样因为意识形态而团结在一起,而是因为共同反对美国和西方自由主义秩序,”他还说。

19russia northkorea assess 02 cjqk master1050为了给乌克兰战争寻求武器供应,俄罗斯正在向朝鲜靠拢。

As the threat from North Korea grows, Mr. Cha said, the new pact is almost certain to solidify an increasingly formal security alliance between Japan, South Korea and the United States.

车维德说,随着来自朝鲜的威胁越来越大,这项新协议几乎肯定会巩固日本、韩国和美国之间日益正式的安全联盟。

The Russians signaled what was coming 18 months ago.

俄罗斯人在18个月前就发出了信号。

Desperate for more artillery to press the war effort in Ukraine, Mr. Putin turned to Mr. Kim for some modest help with ammunition in late 2022. That trickle has now reportedly turned into a flood: five million rounds of ammunition, by the estimates of Western intelligence services, and a growing array of North Korea-made munitions, jammed into what the State Department said were 11,000 shipping containers full of arms. Ballistic missiles followed.

普京迫切需要更多的炮弹来推动在乌克兰的战争,于是在2022年底向金正恩求助,希望在弹药方面得到一些有限的帮助。据报道,涓涓细流如今已经变成洪流:据西方情报机构估计,金正恩提供了500万发弹药,此外还有更多朝鲜制造的弹药,被满满塞进国务院所称的1.1万个集装箱。接下来还有弹道导弹。

It is a reflection of the fact that North Korea now has, for perhaps the first time in its history, a valuable bargaining chip that one of its allies in its standoff with the West needs: It is a prodigious arms producer.

这反映了这样一个事实:现在,朝鲜或许有史以来第一次拥有了一个与西方对峙的盟友所需要的宝贵筹码:它是一个武器生产大国。

At first, Mr. Kim was happy to receive oil and food in return. But in the intelligence assessments circulating in Washington and Europe, officials say, there is growing concern that the North Korean leader is now determined to surmount the last big technological hurdle in making his country a full-fledged nuclear weapons state — the capability to reach any American city with his nuclear weapons.

起初,金正恩乐于收到石油和食物作为回报。但在华盛顿和欧洲流传的情报评估中,官员们表示,越来越多的人担心,朝鲜领导人现在决心克服使朝鲜成为正式核武器国家的最后一大技术障碍——用核武器打到美国任何城市的能力。

Russia holds the keys; the question is whether it is willing to hand them over.

俄罗斯掌握着钥匙;问题是,它是否愿意交出这些钥匙。

“Russia’s need for support in the context of Ukraine has forced it to grant some long-sought concessions to China, North Korea and Iran,” Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, told Congress in March, “with the potential to undermine, among other things, long-held nonproliferation norms.”

“在乌克兰问题上,俄罗斯需要得到支持,这迫使它向中国、朝鲜和伊朗做出了一些对方长期寻求的让步,”美国国家情报总监埃夫丽尔·海恩斯今年3月对国会说,“这可能会破坏长期以来的防扩散准则。”

In closed, classified sessions, she was far more specific, taking key members of Congress through the array of technologies Mr. Kim has not yet shown he can master. Most of them involve keeping a nuclear warhead aloft for 6,000 miles and making sure it can survive, and accurately hit its target, on re-entry to the atmosphere.

在闭门机密会议上,她的发言要具体得多,她向国会重要成员介绍了金正恩尚未显示出他已掌握的一系列技术。其中大多数涉及将核弹头保持在9600公里左右的高空,并确保它能成功重返大气层并准确击中目标。

That is the step a series of American presidents have said they cannot live with. Before the conclusion of this week’s meeting in Pyongyang, Mr. Cha wrote that the prospect of Russian help to the North “presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War.”

这是很多美国总统都曾表示无法接受的进展。在本周的平壤峰会结束前,车维德写道,俄罗斯帮助朝鲜的前景“是朝鲜战争以来对美国国家安全的最大威胁”。

“This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia and the U.S. homeland. Amid front-burner issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza,” he contended, the “administration relegates this problem to the back burner at its own peril.”

“这种有着深厚历史渊源,并且因乌克兰战争而重新焕发活力的关系破坏了欧洲、亚洲和美国本土的安全,”他表示。“在乌克兰和加沙战争等重要问题中,政府把这个问题放在次要位置,这简直是自寻死路”。

19russia northkorea assess 03 cjqk master1050首尔一个火车站的电视屏幕正在播放朝鲜2月进行的导弹试验。

Of course, Washington has faced so many warnings about the dangers of North Korea’s arsenal — dating to its first nuclear test 18 years ago — that it has become almost the background music of geopolitical upheaval.

当然,自朝鲜18年前进行首次核试验以来,华盛顿一直面临着关于朝鲜核武库危险的诸多警告,这些警告几乎沦为了地缘政治动荡的背景音乐。

Mr. Kim has also shown a willingness to strike the United States in non-nuclear ways. The North was responsible for a devastating hack of Sony Pictures a decade ago, which took out most of the studio’s computing capability. The attack was prompted by Sony’s decision to release “The Interview,” a Seth Rogen and James Franco comedy about two journalists sent off to assassinate Mr. Kim.

金正恩也表现出以非核方式打击美国的意愿。十年前,朝鲜对索尼影业进行了毁灭性黑客攻击,摧毁了它的大部分计算能力。事情的起因是,索尼决定发行由塞斯·罗根和詹姆斯·弗兰科主演的喜剧片《采访》(The Interview,也译作《刺杀金正恩》,这部电影讲述了两名记者被派去刺杀金正恩的故事。

In many ways, it set the stage for the modern cyber wars, and the North has financed the expansion of its nuclear program by hacking into central banks and other lucrative Western targets.

在许多方面,它为现代网络战奠定了基础,并且通过侵入中央银行和其他有利可图的西方目标,朝鲜为核计划的扩张获得了资金。

A seemingly endless series of United Nations financial sanctions has failed to cripple either the nuclear expansion or the North’s closely related missile program. American efforts at sabotage have worked, but not for long.

联合国一系列看似无休止的金融制裁措施既未能削弱朝鲜的核扩张,也未能削弱与之密切相关的导弹计划。美国的破坏努力起到了作用,但持续时间不长。

So that leaves the United States dependent on the cold calculus of deterrence: reminding the North, with exercises of long-range bombers, that a strike on the United States or its allies would almost certainly result in the destruction of the country. But a credible security pact with Moscow would complicate that reasoning, with its suggestion that Russia could potentially strike back on the North’s behalf. The terms of Wednesday’s agreement, however, were not clearly spelled out.

因此,美国只能依赖于冷酷的威慑算计:通过远程轰炸机演习提醒朝鲜,对美国或其盟友的打击行动几乎肯定会招致朝鲜的灭亡。但如果与莫斯科签订可信的安全协议,则会使这一推理变得复杂化。然而,周三协议的条款并没有明确说明。

Mr. Putin’s announcements on Wednesday were also a reminder that North Korea’s continued success in pursuing nuclear weapons marks one of Washington’s greatest bipartisan failures. It began in the Clinton administration; faced with an emerging crisis with the North in 1994, the administration considered taking out its emerging nuclear program before it produced a single weapon.

普京周三发表的声明也提醒人们,朝鲜在发展核武器方面的持续成功标志着华盛顿两党最大的失败之一。它始于克林顿政府;1994年,面对与朝鲜日益显现的危机,美国政府曾考虑在它生产出一枚核武器之前就将其新兴的核计划摧毁。

President Bill Clinton pulled back, convinced that diplomacy was the better route — the beginning of three decades of on-again, off-again negotiations. China and Russia helped, joining in the “Six Party Talks” with North Korea that sought to buy off its program.

克林顿总统退缩了,他相信外交手段是更好的途径——开始了长达30年的时断时续的谈判。中俄提供了帮助,加入了与朝鲜的“六方会谈”,该会谈试图收买朝鲜的核计划。

When that collapsed, there were sanctions and a United Nations monitoring group that was supposed to publicly present evidence of sanctions evasion. When the monitoring operation came up for renewal at the United Nations recently, Russia successfully led the charge to get rid of it, at least for now.

六方会谈破裂后,朝鲜受到制裁,联合国成立了一个监督小组,负责公开提供朝鲜逃避制裁的证据。最近,当联合国提出延长该专家小组的任期时,俄罗斯成功地将其否决,至少目前是这样。

Now there are two immediate challenges ahead for the United States, Japan, South Korea and other allies. The first is to attempt to stop the transfer of the technology Mr. Kim has on his shopping list. It includes, Mr. Cha and other experts say, the means to build quiet nuclear-armed submarines, and the technology to evade missile defenses.

现在,美国、日本、韩国和其他盟友面临着两个紧迫的挑战。第一个挑战是试图阻止金正恩采购清单上所需技术的转移。据车维德和另外一些专家表示,其中包括建造静音核潜艇的方法,以及规避导弹防御的技术。

In the past, Mr. Putin has provided missile designs to the North, American intelligence officials have reported, but there is little evidence that he has helped with actual nuclear weapons. Now the North has leverage: Keeping the artillery store open for Mr. Putin may hinge on Mr. Kim’s getting what he wants.

美国情报官员报告称,普京过去曾向朝鲜提供导弹设计方案,但几乎没有证据表明他帮助朝鲜研发真正的核武器。现在,朝鲜有了筹码:金正恩能否得到他想要的东西将决定朝鲜是否继续向普京继续提供军火。

And no one is watching this more closely than the Iranians. They, too, are supplying the Russians with drones. U.S. officials believe the two are discussing missiles. And just last week, the Iranians stepped up pressure on Israel and the United States, saying they were putting their most advanced centrifuges — capable of quickly turning Iran’s fuel stockpile into the material needed to make three nuclear weapons — deep inside an underground facility that may be beyond Israel’s ability to reach with bunker-busting bombs.

没有谁比伊朗人更密切地关注这一点。他们也在向俄罗斯人提供无人机。美国官员认为,双方正在讨论导弹问题。就在上周,伊朗加大了对以色列和美国的压力,称他们正在将最先进的离心机——能够迅速将伊朗的燃料库存转化为制造三枚核武器所需的材料——深入一个地下设施,而这个地下设施可能超出了以色列的掩体炸弹能够抵达的深度。

If North Korea’s gambit works, the Iranians may also see a benefit in growing even closer with Russia. And Mr. Putin may conclude he has little to lose.

如果朝鲜的策略奏效,伊朗人可能也会看到与俄罗斯进一步拉近关系的好处。普京可能会得出结论,反正他没有什么可失去的。

TRIPP MICKLE, JOE RENNISON

2024年6月19日

The New York Times

Move over, Microsoft and Apple. The stock market has a new king.

微软和苹果,让开让开。股市的新王者驾到。

On Tuesday, Nvidia leapfrogged two of tech’s most storied names to become the world’s most valuable public company, according to data from S&P Global. Its ascent has been powered by the boom in generative artificial intelligence and surging demand for the company’s chips — known as graphics processing units, or GPUs — which have made it possible to create A.I. systems.

标准普尔全球的数据显示,周二,英伟达超越了这两家最知名的科技企业,成为全球市值最高的上市公司。它的崛起得益于生成式人工智能的蓬勃发展,以及对该公司的芯片——也就是图形处理器,即GPU——需求激增,这些芯片使得创建人工智能系统成为了可能。

Nvidia’s rise is among the fastest in market history. Just two years ago, the company’s market valuation was a little over $400 billion. Now, in the span of a year, it has gone from $1 trillion to more than $3 trillion.

英伟达的崛起速度在股市历史上名列前茅。就在两年前,该公司的市值还仅略高于4000亿美元。如今它在一年时间里从1万亿美元增长到逾3万亿美元。

On Tuesday, Nvidia’s share price rose 3.6 percent, lifting its value to $3.34 trillion. Microsoft and Apple both fell, ending the day trailing the Silicon Valley chip maker.

周二,英伟达的股价上涨了3.6%,市值升至3.34万亿美元。微软和苹果双双下跌,收盘落后于这家硅谷芯片制造商。

Nvidia’s ascent is a testament to how much artificial intelligence has upended the world’s biggest companies. The rise of the powerful technology first elevated Microsoft to the biggest market capitalization in January, dethroning Apple, before pushing Nvidia to take the crown. Last week, Apple said it, too, was getting into the A.I. game and will add the technology to its products, including the iPhone, this fall.

英伟达的崛起证明了人工智能对全球最大公司的颠覆程度。这项强大技术的崛起首先使微软在今年1月取代苹果,跃升为市值最大的公司,然后又推动英伟达夺得桂冠。上周,苹果公司表示,它也要加入人工智能博弈,并将在今年秋天把这项技术添加到包括iPhone在内的产品中。

Years before other big chip companies, Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, bet that GPUs would be essential to building artificial intelligence, and he tailored his company to accommodate what he believed would be tech’s next big boom.

早在其他大型芯片公司之前,英伟达的首席执行官黄仁勋就押注GPU将是构建人工智能的关键。他对自己的公司进行了调整,以适应他认为将是科技行业下一个大繁荣的趋势。

His big bet is paying off. By some measurements, Nvidia controls more than 80 percent of the market for the chips used in A.I. systems. Nvidia’s biggest customers regularly jockey for orders for chips to run computers in their giant data centers, and are building their own A.I. chips so they are not so dependent on one supplier.

他的豪赌正在获得回报。据统计,英伟达控制着人工智能系统所用芯片市场的80%以上。它的最大客户经常争夺芯片订单,这些芯片是巨型数据中心运行计算机所不可缺少的东西,而这些客户也在制造自己的人工智能芯片,以减少对单一供应商的依赖。

“No one else fully saw or appreciated this,” said Daniel Newman, chief executive of the Futurum Group, a tech research firm. “They saw the trend, built for the trend and enabled the market. They can effectively charge whatever they want.”

“没有人能够完全预见或理解这一点,”科技研究公司Futurum Group的首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼说。“他们发现了这一趋势,顺应了这一趋势,并推动了市场的发展。他们实际上可以随心所欲地定价。”

Nvidia’s ascent has made Mr. Huang, 61, a celebrity in the tech world. After a computer conference in Taiwan early this month, he was surrounded by attendees who wanted his autograph, including a woman who asked him to sign her chest.

英伟达的崛起让现年61岁的黄仁勋成为了科技界的名人。本月初在台湾的一个电脑展上,索要签名的与会者将他团团围住,其中一位女士要求他把名字签在她的胸部

The company’s rise is reminiscent of dot-com era titans like Cisco and Juniper Networks, which built the equipment that ran communications networks for the internet. Cisco’s shares increased more than a thousandfold between its initial public offering in 1990 and 2000, when it briefly became the world’s most valuable company.

该公司的崛起让人想起了互联网泡沫时代的那些巨头,比如思科和瞻博网络,它们制造了运行互联网通信网络的设备。从1990年首次公开募股到2000年,思科的股价上涨了1000多倍,一度成为世界上市值最高的公司。

The speed at which Nvidia’s value has grown has been startling. Apple crossed $1 trillion in August 2018 and became the first $3 trillion company last June. Microsoft also took nearly five years to climb from $1 trillion to $3 trillion.

英伟达市值的增长速度令人吃惊。苹果在2018年8月突破1万亿美元,去年6月才成为首家市值达到3万亿美元的公司。微软从1万亿美元上升到3万亿美元也花了近五年时间。

Nvidia’s investors are betting more on its potential than on its current profits. Microsoft and Apple each generated more than $21 billion in profit during the three months that ended in March. Nvidia generated $14.88 billion in profit in its most recent quarter, which ended in April, but that was up more than 600 percent from a year earlier.

英伟达的投资者更多是看好它的潜力,而非当前的利润。在截至今年3月的三个月里,微软和苹果均创造了超过210亿美元的利润。在截至4月的最近一个季度,英伟达创造了148.8亿美元的利润,但与去年同期相比增长了600%以上。

“The numbers have gotten so big so quickly that people worry: Is this sustainable?” said Stacy Rasgon, an analyst with Bernstein Research. “If the return on A.I. turns out to not be there, then the whole thing comes crumbling down.”

“数字变得如此之大,如此之快,以至于人们担心:这是可持续的吗?”伯恩斯坦研究的分析师斯泰西·拉斯根说。“如果人工智能的回报不存在,那么整件事就会轰然倒塌。”

Just 12 companies have led the S&P 500 by market valuation since the index was created in 1926: AT&T, Apple, Cisco, DuPont, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, General Motors, IBM, Microsoft, Philip Morris, Walmart and now Nvidia, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

自标普500指数于1926年创建以来,只有12家公司在该指数中市值居冠:AT&T、苹果、思科、杜邦、埃克森美孚、通用电气、通用汽车、IBM、微软、菲利普莫里斯、沃尔玛,以及现在的英伟达。

Nvidia’s rise has been fueled by its ability to consistently exceed Wall Street expectations. Sales in its last quarter tripled from a year earlier to $26 billion. It also projected that it would double sales in the current quarter.

英伟达的崛起得益于其持续超越华尔街预期的能力。上一个季度的销售额同比增长了两倍,达到260亿美元。该公司还预计,本季度的销售额将同比翻一番

Nvidia sells everything from chips, and the software needed to build A.I. systems with those chips, to supercomputers. The machines, which have 35,000 parts and are packed with the company’s GPUs, sell for $250,000 or more. A new supercomputer that Nvidia is bringing to the market could sell for more than $1 million, Mr. Rasgon said.

英伟达的产品涉猎广泛,从芯片到用这些芯片构建人工智能系统所需的软件,再到超级计算机。这些机器有3.5万个部件,配备了该公司的图形处理器,售价为25万美元起。据拉斯根称,英伟达即将推出的一款新型超级计算机售价可能超过100万美元。

“Even though the cost of the system is going up, the performance per dollar is getting better with every generation, and that’s how they’re able to keep customers buying,” Mr. Rasgon said.

“尽管系统的成本在上升,但每一代产品的性价比都在提高,这就是他们一直能卖出去的原因,”拉斯贡说。

Wall Street has been watching for signs of a slowdown. Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon have all developed their own chips that can be used for A.I., and traditional chip rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel have tried to cut into Nvidia’s business with their own A.I. processors.

华尔街一直在寻找该公司增长放缓的迹象。微软、Meta、谷歌和亚马逊都开发了自己的人工智能芯片,而传统芯片竞争对手如超威半导体和英特尔也试图通过自己的人工智能处理器挑战英伟达的业务。

But Mr. Huang believes that it will take time for anyone to catch up to Nvidia. The company has a decade head start and has cultivated a large community of A.I. programmers who prefer its technology.

但黄仁勋认为,赶上英伟达需要时间。该公司有十年的领先优势,并培养了一大批对它的技术青睐有加的人工智能程序员。

“We are fundamentally changing how computing works and what computers can do,” Mr. Huang said in a conference call with analysts in May. “The next industrial revolution has begun.”

“我们正在从根本上改变计算的工作方式和计算机的功能,”黄仁勋在5月份与分析师的电话会议上说,“下一次工业革命已经开始。


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KRISSI DRIVER

2024年6月19日

Arsh Raziuddin

Last fall, Jina Kim and two of her friends splurged on a two-night stay at the Ananti at Busan Cove, a luxury resort in Busan, South Korea.

去年秋天,吉娜·金和两个朋友在韩国釜山的豪华度假胜地釜山湾阿南蒂度过了奢侈的两个晚上。

The resort, where rooms start at $369 a night, features infinity pools, spas, eight restaurants, a private coastal walk and beach area, and a 4,600-meter “Water House” — an indoor pool and sauna fed by natural hot-spring water.

这个度假村的客房每晚起价369美元,设有无边泳池、水疗中心、八家餐厅、私人海滨步道和海滩区,以及一个4600米的“水屋”——一个使用天然温泉水的室内泳池和桑拿房。

“We just spent the whole day in the resort hotel, swimming, eating and drinking,” said Ms. Kim, a 32-year-old former teacher who is now a stay-at-home mother.

“我们在度假酒店里呆了一整天,游泳、吃喝,”32岁的吉娜·金说。她以前是一名教师,现在是全职妈妈。

Ms. Kim and her friends weren’t worried about how they would pay for the trip because they had spent over a decade saving in a “gyemoim,” a Korean term for people who form financial planning groups to save money for future expenses.

吉娜·金和她的朋友们并不担心这次旅行的费用,因为她们花了十多年的时间在“起会”(gyemoim)里存钱——指的是人们组建财务规划团体,为未来的开支存钱。

Forming gyemoim groups can help friends or families split travel costs equally so everyone can participate, regardless of his or her personal budget.

组建起会可以帮助朋友或家人平均分摊旅行费用,这样每个人都可以参加,无需考虑个人预算。

“Honestly, if we didn’t make the gyemoim, then it would have been too difficult for us to arrange that kind of trip,” Ms. Kim said. “It would have cost too much, and we didn’t want other members to feel pressured by that.”

“说实话,如果我们不成立起会,那么安排这样的旅行对我们来说就太困难了,”吉娜·金说。“花费太多,我们不希望其他成员因此而感到压力。”

Maintaining Relationships Through Saving

通过存钱维持关系

Collective financial planning has had a long history in many parts of the world.

集体理财在世界上许多地方都有着悠久的历史。

“It’s actually not unique to South Korea,” said Euncheol Shin, an associate professor of economics at KAIST College of Business in Seoul. “This practice first developed because there was no financial market out there, and if you wanted to borrow some money, you had to do some self-financing.”

“这种做法实际上并不是韩国独有,”首尔的韩国科学技术院商学院经济学副教授申恩哲(音)说。“最初发展起来是因为当时没有金融市场,如果想借钱,你必须自己去做一些融资。”

Dr. Shin gave an example of a village 200 years ago that needed to buy seeds to grow rice. The financial structures to take out loans didn’t yet exist in many places, so villages pooled their money, bought supplies and split what they reaped.

申恩哲举了一个例子,200年前的一个村庄需要购买种子来种植水稻。当时在很多地方,贷款的金融机构还不存在,所以村民们把钱集中起来,购买物资,然后把收获分成。

Over time, this practice evolved into a way for people to keep friendships strong and communities united.

随着时间推移,这种做法逐渐发展为人们维系友谊和社区团结的一种方式。

Each member of a gyemoim contributes what are essentially “club dues” — often between $10 and $50 each month, with the amount decided by the group. As the balance increases, the members discuss how to spend it together.

起会中每个成员缴纳的款项实际上相当于“俱乐部会费”——通常是每月10美元到50美元之间,具体数额由团体决定。随着余额的增加,成员们讨论如何一起花掉它。

Ms. Kim first formed a gyemoim with two friends after they met at a social club in 2014. The three were attending different colleges and believed the gyemoim would allow them to regularly meet up.

2014年,吉娜·金和两个朋友在一家社交俱乐部相识后,首次成立了她们的起会。三人就读于不同的大学,她们认为起会可以让她们定期见面。

Initially, they each agreed to contribute 15,000 won, or about $13, every month. Over the next decade, they saved more than 3,000,000 won, or about $2,200, before deciding to spend the money on a trip to the Ananti, the resort. By then, the three friends had become busy with their own careers and families, but they remained close, in part, because of the gyemoim.

最初,她们同意每人每月交纳1.5万韩元(约合13美元)。在接下来的十年里,她们攒下了300多万韩元(约合2200美元),然后决定用这笔钱到度假胜地阿南蒂旅行。到那个时候,三个朋友已经忙于各自的事业和家庭,但她们仍然很亲密,起会也是部分原因。

“It allowed us to keep in touch and have a good time together without worrying about the cost,” Ms. Kim said.

“它让我们保持联系,一起享受美好时光,不用担心费用问题,”吉娜·金说。

Young-hoon Lee, 35, said his mother headed the gyemoim for her apartment building.

35岁的李英勋(音)说,他的母亲是她那座公寓楼的起会负责人。

Mr. Lee, a teaching assistant at an English language academy, is part of a gyemoim that consists of two women and four men, all of whom contribute 50,000 Korean won, or about $36, each month.

李英勋是一所英语语言学院的助教,也参加了一个起会,由两名女性和四名男性组成,每人每月交纳5万韩元,约合36美元。

“We became close friends during high school, and we’ve remained friends into adulthood,” he said. “Initially, we got together just to have fun, but as everyone started working, we began thinking more about the future. So, while maintaining our friendship is important, we also decided to support each other through significant life events, such as weddings or funerals.”

“我们在高中时就成了好朋友,成年后也一直是好朋友,”他说。“最初,我们聚在一起只是为了好玩,但随着每个人都开始工作,我们开始更多地考虑未来。所以,不仅维持友谊很重要,我们还决定在婚礼或葬礼这样的重大生活事件中相互支持。”

Mr. Lee’s gyemoim typically uses its shared funds to reconnect a handful of times a year, usually to enjoy a meal of Korean barbecue or fried chicken and beer.

李英勋的起会每年都会利用共这笔共享资金重聚几次,通常是享受一顿韩式烤肉或炸鸡啤酒。

Ms. Kim also traveled with a different gyemoim to Vietnam at the end of April. The trip cost much less than her stay at the Ananti, though she said her group of three women still stayed in a nice hotel and had a great time together.

4月底,吉娜·金还同另一个起会一起去了越南。这次旅行的花费比她在阿南蒂少得多,不过她说,这次也是三个女人,她们仍然住在一家不错的酒店里,一起度过了愉快的时光。

Why Gyemoims Work in South Korea

为什么起会在韩国行得通

Gyemoim groups can work in South Korea because of the nature of the country’s social interactions and culture of trust.

由于韩国社会互动和信任文化的性质,起会可以在韩国行得通。

For example, in South Korea you could walk into a coffee shop in Seoul and leave your bag, laptop and wallet full of credit cards and cash at your seat unattended and go to the bathroom without needing to worry if it would all be there when you got back. (Though, to be sure, scams and fraud occur just like anywhere else.)

例如,在韩国,你可以走进首尔的一家咖啡店,把包、笔记本电脑和装满信用卡和现金的钱包放在座位上,然后去洗手间,就算没有人看着,也不必担心回来时这些东西会被拿走。(不过,可以肯定的是,和其他地方一样,诈骗和欺诈也时有发生。)

“Let’s say that you and I are friends,” Dr. Shin said. “We have grown up in a small town for a very long time. We know everything about each other. If I borrow some money and I don’t pay it back, then you’re going to say, ‘Hey, everyone, Euncheol borrowed some money from me, and he never paid me back.’” Because of the collective nature of social groups, Dr. Shin explained, he would be ostracized by people in his community.

“假如说你和我是朋友,”申恩哲说。“我们在一个小镇上一起长大,认识了很长时间。我们对彼此了如指掌。如果我借钱不还,你就会说,‘嘿,各位,恩哲从我这里借了一笔钱,一直都没还我。’”申恩哲说,由于社会群体的集体性,他会受到社区成员的排斥。

Forming a group to save is so common in South Korea that one bank is adapting to the custom. KakaoBank, an arm of the country’s most popular communication app, KakaoTalk, now offers a gyemoim group account product where friends can share a bank account managed by one designated account holder.

组团储蓄在韩国非常普遍,一家银行正在适应这一习俗。Kakao银行是韩国最受欢迎的通讯应用Kakao Talk的子公司,现在提供一种起会群组账户产品,朋友们可以共享一个由指定账户持有人管理的银行账户。

Mr. Lee and Ms. Kim started their gyemoim groups before KakaoBank existed, so they entrusted their funds to one member of their saving circles. Some groups, like Mr. Lee’s, still prefer this “old-fashioned” method of collecting money. Mr. Lee said one of his groups had decided who would be entrusted with the money by majority vote.

李英勋和吉娜·金的起会在有Kakao银行之前就已经开始了,他们是把资金委托给储蓄团体中的一位成员。一些团体,像李英勋他们,仍然更喜欢这种“老式”的筹款方式。李英勋说,他的一个团体以多数票方式决定将钱委托给谁来管理。

Both of Ms. Kim’s gyemoim groups now use the KakaoBank option because it allows all members to see how their pooled money is moved in their account, which earns up to 2 percent interest. The account manager is the sole person with control over how the funds are used, but everyone pays in. Users can set reminders to send their monthly dues to the account and communicate through the app’s chat feature.

吉娜·金的两个起会团体现在都使用Kakao银行的工具,因为它让所有成员都能查看自己账户中的资金流动情况,并可获得最高达2%的利息。账户管理人是唯一控制资金使用的人,但每个人都要付钱。用户可以设置提醒,将每月的会费发送到该账户,还可以通过应用程序的聊天功能进行交流。

Gyemoim groups don’t last forever. Circumstances change, friends may have a falling-out, someone may no longer want to participate or a new person may want to join. When that happens, it’s up to the collective to decide how to handle it.

这样的起会团体不会永远延续下去。环境会发生变化,朋友可能会闹翻,有人可能不再想参加,或者有新人可能想加入。当这种情况发生时,会由集体决定如何处理。

“There are no particular rules to run a group, although in some groups, other people have created their own rules,” Ms. Kim said. “But my groups never really had rules.”

“团体的运行没有特定的规则,尽管有些团体制定了自己的规则,”吉娜·金说。“但我的团体从来没有真正的规则。”

Ms. Kim’s gyemoim that visited Busan used to include another friend, who decided to bow out a few years ago for financial reasons.

吉娜·金的另一个朋友曾经也参加了去釜山的那个起会,但在几年前,她因为经济原因决定退出。

“In our case,” she said, “we asked her what she wanted to do with her part of the money. She decided to have her part refunded instead of using it. ”

 “我们问她想怎么处理她那部分钱。她决定收回自己那部分前,而不是用掉它,”她说。

While there was a peaceful parting of ways in Ms. Kim’s gyemoim, disagreements aren’t unheard-of, either. Ms. Kim said she had a friend who was part of a gyemoim that disbanded when its members couldn’t agree on how to plan a trip. For a group to be successful, she added, members need to share similar interests and values.

虽然在吉娜·金的起会里大家是和平分手,但是闹翻的例子也并非闻所未闻。吉娜·金说,她有一个朋友的起会在成员无法就旅行计划达成一致意见的时候解散了。她还说,一个团体要想成功,成员们要有共同的兴趣和价值观。

Could Gyemoim Groups Work in the U.S.?

这样的起会团体在美国能够行得通吗?

No American bank offers a product quite like what South Korea’s KakaoBank offers for gyemoim groups. To ensure full transparency for all members of your group, the closest option is to open a joint checking or savings account so those involved can have equal access.

没有一家美国银行能提供像Kakao银行为起会提供的那种产品。为确保对团队所有成员保持透明,最接近的选择是开一个联合支票或储蓄账户,这样所有成员都可以平等地使用。

This could be difficult depending on the size of your group and your proximity to one another. Banks that don’t have traditional brick-and-mortar locations are most likely going to have the best options. For example, a representative from Ally Bank, which operates online, said the bank allowed up to four co-owners on a spending account.

这可能比较困难,具体取决于团队规模和彼此之间的亲疏关系。没有传统实体网点的银行最有可能提供最佳选择。例如,在线运营的Ally银行的一名代表说,该银行最多允许四个共同所有者使用一个消费账户

If you open an account with a bank that includes fees, factor the cost into everyone’s shared contribution.

如果你们在一家银行开立的账户是收费的,则应将该费用计入每个人的分摊额。

Opening a joint account has drawbacks, too, such as what might happen if a friend wants to leave the group. Depending on the bank, removing someone from a joint account can be tough or impossible without closing the account.

开设联合账户也有缺点,比如说,如果一个朋友想要离开这个群,可能会发生问题。根据银行的不同,在不关闭联名账户的情况下,将某人从联名账户中除名可能很困难,甚至是不可能的。

In addition, unlike an individual account, a joint account gives every person equal legal ownership of the funds in it whether the person contributed all of the money or not. Despite shared ownership, you can’t force anyone to pay dues into the account, either.

此外,与个人账户不同的是,联名账户赋予每个人对其中资金的平等法律所有权,无论此人是否贡献了全部资金。尽管大家共享所有权,但不能强迫任何人向账户支付会费。

Still, if you wanted to form a gyemoim, you could do it the old-fashioned way by selecting one trusted person to be in charge of pooled funds in an individual savings account.

尽管如此,如果你想成立一个起会,你可以用传统的方式,选择一个值得信赖的人来管理个人储蓄账户中的集体资金。

The cultural traditions that allow gyemoims to work well in Korean society aren’t as present in Western culture, so collective funding can be a bit of a gamble if you don’t know your members well.

让起会在韩国社会顺利运作的文化传统在西方文化中没那么普遍,所以,如果你不太了解你的成员,集体筹资可能有点冒险。

When forming a group, Mr. Lee suggested, include at least “one or two trustworthy people.” He also recommended the group stay open to new members, as circumstances can change unexpectedly, and new friends can energize a group that has grown stale.

李英勋建议,在组建一个团体的时候,至少要包括“一两个值得信赖的人”。他还建议团体对吸纳新成员保持开放态度,因为情况可能会发生意想不到的变化,而新朋友可以为一个已经变得陈旧的团体注入活力。

Mr. Lee also recommended forming groups around a specific purpose, such as getting together regularly to pursue a hobby. Friends who have known one another a long time, such as Ms. Kim and her friends, may easily save money with no concrete purpose in mind. But new friends or acquaintances will thrive if they have mutual interests.

李英勋还建议围绕一个特定的目标组建团体,比如为了一项爱好定期聚会。像吉娜·金和她的朋友们这样相识已久的团体可能很容易会在没有具体目的的情况下存钱。但如果大家拥有共同的兴趣,新朋友或熟人就会很快发展起来。

“As a Korean who values a sense of community, I think the culture of community is good, and I hope more people will pursue a culture where everyone gets along well,” Mr. Lee said.

“作为一个重视社区意识的韩国人,我认为社区文化是好的,我希望更多的人能追求一种大家相处融洽的文化,”李英勋说。

PAUL SONNE

2024年6月19日

克里姆林宫发布的视频截图显示,俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩周三早间在平壤一个机场举行的欢迎仪式上。 Kremlin, via Reuters

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has arrived in North Korea, according to Russian state media, visiting for the first time in 24 years after vowing to bring ties with Pyongyang to new heights and jointly rebuff what he called the “global neocolonial dictatorship” of the United States.

据俄罗斯官方媒体报道,俄罗斯总统普京已抵达朝鲜,这是他24年来首次访问该国,此前他放话要将与平壤的关系提升到新的高度,共同抵制他所称的美国“全球新殖民主义独裁统治”。

The North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, met the Russian president on the airport tarmac early Wednesday local time, Russian state news agencies reported.

据俄罗斯官方新闻机构报道,当地时间周三早些时候,朝鲜领导人金正恩在机场停机坪迎接俄罗斯总统。

Mr. Putin arrived in the dead of night, descending from his airplane to a red carpet lined by uniformed guards to embrace the waiting North Korean leader, video later released by the Kremlin showed. Mr. Kim ushered Mr. Putin into a Russian-made Aurus limousine that he had received from him last year.

克里姆林宫后来发布的视频显示,普京在凌晨抵达朝鲜,下机后踏上红毯,两边站着身穿制服的警卫,他与等候在那里的朝鲜领导人拥抱。金正恩把普京领进了一辆普京去年送给他的俄制Aurus豪华轿车。

The war against Ukraine has driven Mr. Putin closer to Mr. Kim, who has won new status with the Kremlin by opening his vast munitions stores to Moscow.

对乌克兰的战争拉近了普京与金正恩的关系。金正恩向莫斯科开放了庞大的军火库,从而在克里姆林宫赢得了新地位。

Nine months ago, after Mr. Kim arrived by armored train in the Russian Far East, the two men met at a Russian cosmodrome and toasted their “sacred struggle” against the West. The North Korean leader, in between visiting sensitive Russian rocket and fighter jet facilities, invited Mr. Putin to make a reciprocal visit.

九个月前,金正恩乘坐装甲列车抵达俄罗斯远东地区后,两人在俄罗斯的一个航天发射场会面,为他们对抗西方的“神圣斗争”干杯。这位朝鲜领导人在参观俄罗斯敏感的火箭和战斗机设施期间邀请普京进行回访。

Now, the Russian president has taken him up on the offer. And the deepening relationship between the two authoritarian leaders poses a particular challenge for Washington. The United States once relied on Moscow’s cooperation in its attempts to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile program. Now, it faces a Kremlin intent on playing spoiler to American geopolitical interests around the world.

如今,俄罗斯总统接受了他的提议。两位威权领导人之间不断加深的关系给华盛顿带来了特别的挑战。美国曾经依靠莫斯科的合作来遏制朝鲜的核计划和导弹计划。而现在,美国面对的是一个意图在全球范围内破坏美国地缘政治利益的克里姆林宫。

Russian state media released footage showing large Russian flags and portraits of a smiling Mr. Putin lining the streets of Pyongyang as North Korea prepared to welcome the Russian leader.

俄罗斯官方媒体发布的画面显示,为迎接俄罗斯领导人,平壤街头挂满了巨大的俄罗斯国旗和面带微笑的普京肖像。

What does Russia want?

俄罗斯希望得到什么?

Ahead of the trip, Mr. Putin issued an order authorizing the conclusion of a new “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement with North Korea.

在出访之前,普京发布命令,授权与朝鲜缔结新的“全面战略伙伴关系”条约。

He also published an article in Rodong, the North’s main newspaper, praising Mr. Kim for resisting “economic pressure, provocations, blackmail and military threats from the United States” and thanking Pyongyang for its strong support of Russia’s operations in Ukraine.

他还在朝鲜主要报纸《劳动新闻》上发表文章,称赞金正恩抵制了“来自美国的经济压力、挑衅、讹诈和军事威胁”,并感谢平壤大力支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动。

Victory over Ukraine has been the guiding principle of Russian foreign policy for more than two years, and Mr. Putin’s top priority on the trip will be to ensure North Korea’s continued cooperation in helping him achieve his aims on the battlefield.

两年多来,击败乌克兰一直是俄罗斯外交政策的指导原则,普京此行的首要任务将是确保朝鲜继续合作,帮助他在战场上实现自己的目标。

North Korea is one of the world’s most impoverished and isolated countries, but it has one of the biggest militaries.

朝鲜是世界上最贫穷、最孤立的国家之一,但它的军队规模位居世界前列。

The exact scope of the North’s military aid for Moscow’s war is unclear. Many analysts say the contribution has been meaningful, because the Russian military requires evermore ammunition in its war of attrition against Kyiv. Russian forces have recently been making territorial gains against Ukraine in part because they are able to expend more ammunition.

关于朝鲜为莫斯科的战争具体提供了何种程度的军事援助,目前尚不清楚。许多分析人士认为,这些援助是有意义的,因为俄罗斯军队在对基辅的消耗战中需要越来越多的弹药。俄罗斯军队最近在乌克兰的领土上取得了进展,部分原因就在于他们有更多弹药可以消耗。

In an interview with Bloomberg last week, the South Korean defense minister, Shin Won-sik, said Seoul had tracked at least 10,000 shipping containers that could hold as many as 4.8 million artillery shells being ferried from North Korea to Russia. The minister predicted that Mr. Putin would ask for more during his trip.

韩国国防部长申源湜上周接受彭博社采访时表示,首尔追踪到至少1万个从朝鲜运往俄罗斯的集装箱,其中可容纳多达480万枚炮弹。他预计,普京此行期间会提出更多要求。

17putin nkorea explainer 3 bgfj master10503月,乌克兰基辅,救援人员在被俄罗斯导弹摧毁的建筑物废墟中搜寻。

Before Mr. Kim’s visit to Russia last year, U.S. intelligence reported that Moscow had purchased millions of artillery shells from North Korea. The United States has since accused Russia at the United Nations of firing multiple North Korean ballistic missiles into Ukraine.

在金正恩去年访问俄罗斯之前,美国情报机构报告称,莫斯科从朝鲜购买了数百万枚炮弹。此后,美国在联合国指责俄罗斯向乌克兰发射了多枚朝鲜弹道导弹。

But questions about the quality of the North’s supplies have arisen. Officials in Kyiv have said that Russia fired roughly 50 North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukrainian territory last winter and that the fail rate of the weapons was high.

但是,有关朝鲜供给的质量问题也随之而来。基辅官员表示,去年冬天,俄罗斯向乌克兰领土发射了大约50枚朝鲜弹道导弹,其失败率很高。

The burgeoning relationship with Moscow has already yielded dividends for Pyongyang. In March, Russia vetoed the annual renewal of the U.N. panel of experts that had been scrutinizing North Korean sanctions violations for 15 years. The move highlighted the drastic shift in Moscow’s stance toward Pyongyang after years of playing a role in U.N. disarmament efforts there.

与莫斯科迅速发展的关系已经为平壤带来了红利。今年3月,俄罗斯否决了联合国专家小组的任期延长,该小组15年来一直在审查朝鲜违反制裁的情况。此举突显出俄罗斯对平壤的立场发生了巨大转变,此前,俄罗斯多年来一直在联合国的朝鲜裁军工作中发挥作用。

Before their mandate expired, U.N. monitors verified that debris from a January attack on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv had come from a North Korean missile and said the weapons transfer had violated the U.N. arms embargo on Pyongyang, according to Reuters. The embargo prohibits the export and import of weapons.

据路透社报道,联合国监督人员在其任期届满前证实,1月对乌克兰哈尔科夫市袭击所产生的碎片来自朝鲜的导弹,并表示武器转让违反了联合国对平壤的武器禁运,该禁运禁止武器的进出口。

Mr. Putin is unlikely to acknowledge any ammunition or weapons deliveries during the trip. Russia has denied any military transfers that violate the U.N. embargo.

普京不太可能承认在这次访问期间运送了任何弹药或武器。俄罗斯一直否认存在任何违反联合国禁运的军事转移。

The Kremlin foreign policy aide, Yuri V. Ushakov, told journalists at a briefing on Monday that the two leaders would discuss energy, transport, agriculture, economic and security issues during the trip.

克里姆林宫外交政策助理尤里·乌沙科夫在周一的新闻发布会上告诉记者,两国领导人将在此次访问期间讨论能源、交通、农业、经济和安全问题。

Mr. Putin will also visit Vietnam later this week, underscoring the Kremlin’s propensity to contest American interests even in nations where Washington has been improving its ties. The Russian leader’s trip there comes after President Biden visited in September.

普京本周晚些时候还将访问越南,这表明,在一些美国一直致力于改善双边关系的国家,克里姆林宫也要同美国争夺利益。在普京这次访问之前,拜登总统于去年9月访问了越南。

What does North Korea want?

朝鲜希望得到什么?

Mr. Kim, whose grandfather came to power with Moscow’s backing in 1948 and founded North Korea, has been steadily expanding his arsenal of high-end weapons and looking increasingly for the Kremlin’s help.

金正恩的祖父于1948年在莫斯科的支持下上台,建立了朝鲜。金正恩一直在稳步扩大自己的高端武器库,并越来越多地寻求克里姆林宫的帮助。

The warming of relations between Moscow and Pyongyang has led to a breakdown of international efforts aimed at containing North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions and has raised questions about future sanctions enforcement.

莫斯科和平壤之间关系的升温导致旨在遏制朝鲜核计划和导弹野心的国际努力破裂,并引发了对未来制裁将如何执行的疑问。

Since the two leaders met last year, questions have persisted about what Mr. Kim has received in return for supplying Moscow with ballistic missiles and much-needed artillery shells.

自两位领导人去年会面以来,人们一直在问,金正恩向莫斯科提供急需的弹道导弹和炮弹究竟能得到什么回报。

Among other things, the conflict has given Pyongyang the rare opportunity to evaluate the performance of its missiles in live combat and potentially perfect their design.

别的先不提,这场冲突给了平壤一个难得的机会来评估其导弹在实战中的表现,并有可能完善它们的设计。

North Korea would also welcome greater access to Russia’s sophisticated military technology, including its extensive knowledge of satellites. Two months after Mr. Kim’s visit to Russia last year, North Korea put its first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit, a launch that South Korean officials said had been aided by technological assistance from Moscow.

朝鲜也希望获得更多俄罗斯的尖端军事技术,包括其丰富的卫星知识。金正恩去年访问俄罗斯两个月后,朝鲜将其第一颗军事侦察卫星送入轨道。韩国官员表示,此次发射得到了莫斯科的技术援助。

Russia, which has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons and one of its most sophisticated submarine programs, possesses a range of other technologies of interest to North Korea. Despite disarmament efforts over many years by Washington and the United Nations, Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests and developed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.

俄罗斯拥有世界上最大的核武库和最先进的潜艇项目之一,还拥有朝鲜感兴趣的一系列其他技术。尽管华盛顿和联合国多年来一直在努力解除朝鲜的武装,但平壤已经进行了六次核试验,并研制出能够打到美国的洲际弹道导弹。

Isolated from the rest of the world owing to international sanctions, North Korea has a range of needs outside the military sector that Moscow could also help meet. South Korean officials have said that Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, is supplying food and raw materials, as well as parts for weapons manufacturing.

由于国际制裁,朝鲜与世界其他地区隔绝,在军事领域之外,朝鲜还有一系列莫斯科可以帮助满足的需求。韩国官员表示,作为世界上最大的小麦出口国,俄罗斯正在向朝鲜提供食品和原材料,以及武器制造所需的零部件。

In the article published in Rodong ahead of the trip, Mr. Putin said that Moscow would support North Korea’s struggle against “the cunning, dangerous and aggressive enemy” by deepening economic relations and establishing a new trade settlement system free from American interference.

普京在出访前发表在《劳动新闻》上的文章中表示,莫斯科将通过深化经济关系和建立不受美国干涉的新贸易结算体系,支持朝鲜与“狡猾、危险和咄咄逼人的敌人”进行斗争。

Mr. Ushakov said that Russia’s trade with North Korea reached $34.4 million in 2023, nine times the amount of the previous year. He said the summit would include a discussion about restoring humanitarian ties that were suspended during the pandemic because of North Korea’s strict rules.

乌沙科夫表示,俄罗斯与朝鲜的贸易额在2023年达到3440万美元,是前一年的九倍。他说,此次峰会将讨论恢复人道主义联系的问题,由于朝鲜的严格规定,这一联系在新冠大流行期间中断了。

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