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中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

JIAWEI WANG, CHOE SANG-HUN

Quick deliveries of large orders for stuffed toys, fake eyelashes and crocheted bags that are made with cheap labor, including some workers who are on the job for 16 hours straight.

无论是毛绒玩具、假睫毛还是钩织手袋,生产量大,出货快,工人便宜,有些工人连续16个小时没有睡觉了。

This is the pitch some Chinese businesses are making on social media to potential customers. But the products they are selling are made in North Korea, like in this video of a wig factory.

这是一些中国企业在社交媒体上向潜在客户所推销的内容。然而,他们所销售的产品来自朝鲜,就像这段假发工厂的视频所展示的那样。

In the posts, which have proliferated in recent years, some Chinese entrepreneurs say that they own factories in North Korea and openly share contact information, splashing their account handles on videos of their products — in a clear violation of sweeping U.N. Security Council sanctions that bar nations from running “joint ventures or cooperative entities” in North Korea.

近年来这类帖子大量涌现。一些中国商人在帖子中声称自己在朝鲜设有工厂,并公开联系方式,在产品视频中直接展示自己的账号信息——这明显违反了联合国安理会关于禁止各国在朝鲜“经营合资企业或合作实体”的全面制裁措施。

The videos have been viewed tens of thousands of times and offer a rare glimpse into factory life in North Korea. They are also a sign of the renewed ties between the neighbors — official trade between the countries has jumped recently and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Pyongyang on Monday for a summit with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-un.

这些视频的播放量达到数万次,提供了让外界一窥朝鲜工厂内部生活的罕见窗口。它们也显示出这两个邻国之间恢复关系的迹象——两国官方贸易近期大幅增长,中国领导人习近平于周一抵达平壤,与朝鲜最高领导人金正恩举行峰会。

The New York Times reviewed 34 social media accounts and over 400 posts that promoted goods made in North Korean factories on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, and Xiaohongshu, which is also known as Red Note. The Times used satellite imagery and other online footage to verify where the videos in this article were recorded. People behind two of the accounts that posted the videos declined to comment and the others did not respond.

《纽约时报》查阅了34个社交媒体账号及400多条帖子,这些帖子在抖音和小红书上推广朝鲜工厂制造的产品。《纽约时报》还利用卫星图像及其他网络视频核实了本文所引用视频的拍摄地点。发布相关视频的两个账号运营者拒绝置评,其余账号均未作回应。

The social media accounts touted the same marketing line: thousands of cheap and skilled workers. As one post put it in Chinese, with a smiley-face emoji: “Good value for money.”

这些社交媒体账号宣传的卖点几乎如出一辙:大量廉价、技术熟练的工人。正如其中一则帖子用中文并配上笑脸表情符号所写的那样——“性价比很不错”。

“Chinese entrepreneurs are returning to North Korea to run joint ventures,” said Lee Sang-Yong, research director at Daily NK, a Seoul-based website specializing in North Korean affairs. “While the rest of the world was not paying much attention, bilateral trade has quietly recovered to prepandemic levels.”

首尔专门报道朝鲜事务的网站“每日朝鲜”的研究主任李相勇(音)表示,“中国企业家正在重返朝鲜经营合资企业。在外界没有太多关注的情况下,双边贸易已悄然恢复到疫情前的水平。”

卫星图像显示,朝鲜罗先经济特区一家生产假发和假睫毛的工厂。
卫星图像显示,朝鲜罗先经济特区一家生产假发和假睫毛的工厂。 Satellite image ©2026 Vantor

North Korea is not completely cut off by U.N. sanctions. Firms can export items like wigs and tungsten ores, as long as they are not part of a joint venture with foreign companies. Official trade between North Korea and China reached nearly $1 billion in the first four months of this year, jumping about 23 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Chinese customs data.

朝鲜并未被联合国制裁完全隔绝。企业可以出口假发和钨矿石等商品,只要它们不与外国公司合资经营即可。根据中国海关数据,今年前四个月,朝中官方贸易额接近10亿美元,同比增长约23%。

Much of the factory activity appears to be happening in the northeastern city of Rason, near North Korea’s borders with China and Russia. Pyongyang designated the city as a special economic zone in 1991, aimed at attracting foreign investment — particularly from China — to build and run factories using low-cost North Korean labor.

大量工厂活动似乎集中在朝鲜东北部城市罗先,这里毗邻中国和俄罗斯边境。平壤于1991年将其划定为经济特区,希望吸引外国投资——尤其是中国资本——利用朝鲜便宜的劳动力建厂和运营。

It was not possible to determine if the social media videos have actually led to orders. But as contract manufacturers, many North Korean factories do not have a robust domestic supply chain. The country has “relied heavily on importing raw materials and intermediate goods from China, then manufacturing and reselling finished products by leveraging its relatively abundant labor force,” said Yi Ji-sun, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul.

目前尚无法确定这些社交媒体视频是否真的带来了订单。但作为合同制造商,许多朝鲜工厂自身并不具备完善的国内供应链。首尔的国家安全战略研究院研究员李志善(音)表示,朝鲜“严重依赖从中国进口原材料和中间产品,然后利用其相对丰富的劳动力进行制造,并将成品转售出去”。

Many of the social media posts emphasized the handiwork of the large work force. A video at one factory shows more than 150 men and women assembling false eyelashes, using small tools to nimbly weave the fabric and hammer the lashes onto a base. The caption reads, “North Korea Rason eyelash factory.”

许多社交媒体帖子都强调大量劳动力的手艺精湛。其中一段视频显示,一家工厂里的150多名男女正在组装假睫毛,他们使用小工具,熟练地编织纤维并将假睫毛固定到底座上。视频配文写着“朝鲜罗先睫毛工厂”几个字。

When the product is ready, workers prepare for export by packing boxes labeled with the quantity and the name of the lash style, “Mega Volume” or “Crisscross,” in Chinese characters. Businesses pitched the rapid turnaround of large orders as a key advantage of working with North Korean factories. A video posted last August shows a table covered with more than 200 boxes, with the caption “Shipping out today.”

产品完工后,工人们进行出口前的打包,箱子上用中文标注了数量和睫毛款式名称,如“浓密款”或“交叉款”。商家将大批量订单出货快作为与朝鲜工厂合作的一大优势。去年8月发布的一段视频显示,桌上摆着200多个箱子,字幕写着“今日发货”。

U.N. sanctions bar nations from buying textiles, including “fabrics and partially or completed apparel products,” from North Korea. However, posts showed a variety of goods that appeared to violate the ban, including hand-knit bags and crocheted toys.

联合国制裁明令禁止各国从朝鲜购买纺织品,包括“布料以及部分或完全制成的服装产品”。然而,相关帖子展示了不少疑似违反禁令的商品,包括手工编织包和钩针编织的玩具。

One account hawked a traditional Chinese dress called qipao with the caption, “New pieces fresh off the frame by North Korean embroiderers. Seeking their destined owner.”

有一个账号兜售传统中式旗袍,配文写道:“朝鲜绣娘刚刚下架的新品,寻有缘人。”

The social media posts also offer a look at life inside North Korean factories. The laborers work and live under military-style discipline. They eat at communal dining areas and participate in collective exercises.

这些帖子也向外界展示了朝鲜工厂内部的生活。工人在军事化纪律管理下工作和生活。他们在集体食堂用餐,并参加各种集体活动。

Government propaganda slogans hang on the factory walls, continuously reinforcing loyalty to Mr. Kim.

工厂的墙壁上挂着政府宣传标语,不断强化对金正恩的忠诚。

North Korea has historically likened its foreign investment strategy to “putting up mosquito nets” — a policy designed to catch external capital while blocking foreign cultural influence. The remote geography of the Rason Special Economic Zone serves this purpose, allowing Pyongyang to isolate foreign investors from the general population.

长期以来,朝鲜把自己的招商引资战略比喻为“挂起蚊帐”——既要吸引境外资本,又要阻挡外国文化的影响。地处偏远的罗先经济特区正好服务于这一目的,使平壤能够把外国投资者与普通民众隔离开来。

To prevent the spread of outside information, the regime favors ethnic Chinese investors over Chinese business people of Korean descent who could communicate with locals, according to South Korean officials and analysts.

据韩国官员和分析人士透露,为防止境外信息的传播,朝鲜政府更青睐中国的汉族投资者,而不是能够与当地民众直接交流的中国朝鲜族商人。

CHOE SANG-HUN

金正恩2019年抵达靠近中越边境的越南同登火车站。 Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

During the pandemic, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who had long billed himself as invincible, made a stunning, teary-eyed apology on national television.

在疫情期间,长期以来一直自诩战无不胜的朝鲜领导人金正恩在国家电视台上发表了热泪盈眶的惊人道歉。

“I am really sorry,” he said, as the coronavirus, coupled with food shortages and international sanctions, was ravaging his country. “My efforts and sincerity have not been sufficient enough to rid our people of the difficulties in their life.”

“我深感歉意,”他说。当时,新冠疫情加之粮食短缺和国际制裁正无情地摧残着他的国家。“我的努力和诚心不足以使人民摆脱生活困难。”

But while ordinary North Koreans were suffering, Mr. Kim, 42, seized the crisis as a unique opportunity. Now, he is brimming with confidence. He is recognized at home and abroad as North Korea’s most powerful leader to date, surpassing even his grandfather, the country’s founder, because he has achieved the status of a de facto nuclear power.

然而,就在普通朝鲜民众深陷苦难之时,42岁的金正恩却将这场危机视为一个绝佳的机遇。如今,他信心满满。由于他使得朝鲜成为事实上的核大国,他被国内外公认为迄今为止朝鲜最有权势的领导人,甚至超越了他的祖父——该国的开国元勋。

He started during the pandemic by shutting down the border with China, issuing shoot-to-kill orders to stop North Koreans fleeing across the boundary. He clamped down on trade and smuggling across the border, forcing his people to rely less on imports and produce more goods domestically. His campaign also targeted the informal markets where many had eked out a living — trading Chinese goods and foreign entertainment smuggled in on thumb drives — ever since the devastating famine of the 1990s.

在疫情期间,他首先关闭了与中国接壤的边境,下达格杀勿论的命令,阻止朝鲜人越境逃亡。他严厉打击边境贸易和走私活动,迫使民众减少对进口的依赖,转向增加国内生产。他的整肃行动还把矛头对准了非正规市场——自20世纪90年代毁灭性的饥荒以来,许多人一直依靠这些市场里买卖中国商品以及U盘走私入境的外国娱乐节目勉强度日。

By dismantling these underground markets, Mr. Kim strengthened the regime’s monopoly over the economy and ideology. Enforcement was brutal. Those caught distributing K-pop or K-dramas were publicly executed.

通过摧毁这些地下市场,金正恩加强了该政权对经济和意识形态的垄断。执法手段异常残暴。被发现传播韩国流行音乐或韩剧的人遭到公开处决。

At the same time, he flouted international sanctions to steadily expand his nuclear arsenal. North Korea built a new generation of missiles capable of striking its nearest adversaries, South Korea and Japan, with nuclear warheads. It is also developing the means to target the American mainland, through nuclear-powered submarines and intercontinental ballistic missile technology.

与此同时,他无视国际制裁,稳步扩充其核武库。朝鲜制造了新一代导弹,能够用核弹头打击其最近的对手——韩国和日本。朝鲜还在研发能够打击美国本土的手段,包括核动力潜艇和洲际弹道导弹技术。

Mr. Kim also seized an unexpected opening abroad. As Russia struggled in its war against Ukraine​, he gave it weapons and troops.​ Moscow reciprocated with weapons technology to help modernize North Korea’s air defenses and other vulnerable parts of its military, along with badly needed food, oil and even tourists. The two nations signed a mutual defense and cooperation treaty, easing Pyongyang’s economic isolation and lifting its international status.

金正恩还在海外抓住了一个意想不到的突破口。当俄罗斯在对乌克兰的战争中陷入困境时,他向俄罗斯提供了武器和军队。作为回报,莫斯科提供了武器技术,帮助朝鲜实现防空系统及军队中其他薄弱环节的现代化,并提供了朝鲜急需的粮食、石油甚至游客。两国签署了共同防御与合作条约,从而缓解了平壤的经济孤立局面,提升了朝鲜的国际地位。

21int nkorea kim 01 cbpz master1050金正恩的地位提升在2025年北京的一次阅兵式上得到了展示,当时他与俄罗斯总统普京、中国国家主席习近平并排而立。

Since then, he has rebuffed any idea of renewing talks with President Trump or reconciling with South Korea. And his tilt toward Russia has prodded China to warm up to North Korea, a neighbor that Beijing views as hard to manage but whose hostility toward Washington gives it diplomatic leverage.

从那时起,金正恩拒绝了任何与特朗普总统重启谈判或与韩国和解的提议。而他向俄罗斯的倾斜也促使中国开始主动向朝鲜示好;在北京看来,这个邻国虽然难以驾驭,但其对华盛顿的敌意却能为中国提供外交筹码。

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, arrived in North Korea on Monday for a two-day state visit, his first in seven years. He is expected to underscore China’s indispensable position as North Korea’s dominant trading partner. The countries are already expanding trade again, resuming train service and adding more flights between Beijing and Pyongyang. They are close to completing a new modern road bridge across the Yalu River border, which is expected to facilitate bilateral exchanges, including an influx of Chinese tourists and aid.

中国最高领导人习近平于周一抵达朝鲜,开始为期两天的国事访问,这是他七年来首次访朝。预计他将强调中国作为朝鲜主导贸易伙伴不可或缺的地位。两国已经在重新扩大贸易,恢复了列车服务,并增加了北京与平壤之间的航班。一座横跨鸭绿江边境的全新现代化公路桥即将竣工,预计这将促进双边交流,令大批中国游客和援助物资涌入朝鲜。

Poverty endures outside Pyongyang, yet analysts say the recent developments have given the government confidence and the public some hope. At his Workers’ Party congress earlier this year, Mr. Kim triumphantly declared that North Korea was in a glorious and more prosperous new era, a far cry from his weeping apology in 2020. People can now hope to have “both sweets and bullets,” the party said, referring to its policy of seeking both economic recovery and military prowess.

在平壤之外,贫困依然存在,但分析人士表示,近期的这些发展为政府赋予信心,也给了公众一丝希望。在今年早些时候召开的劳动党代表大会上,金正恩得意洋洋地宣布,朝鲜正迈入一个辉煌且更加繁荣的新时代,这与他2020年声泪俱下的道歉形成了鲜明对比。劳动党表示,人们现在可以期望同时拥有“糖果与子弹”,这是指其同时谋求经济复苏和军事强盛的政策。

To uncover how Mr. Kim pulled off this transformation, The New York Times spoke with more than a dozen post-pandemic defectors, interviewed experts with inside connections, and scrutinized state media and leaked regime documents.

为了揭示金正恩如何完成这一逆转,《纽约时报》采访了十多位在疫情后逃离的脱北者,走访了拥有内部人脉的专家,并仔细研究了朝鲜官方媒体和遭泄露的政权文件。

Jiro Ishimaru, the chief editor of the Japan-based Asia Press International, which has clandestine correspondents inside North Korea, said, “In the past few years, Kim Jong-un has traveled from hell to heaven.”

总部位于日本的亚洲新闻在朝鲜国内安插有秘密通讯员,该社主编石丸次郎说:“在过去几年里,金正恩可以说是从地狱升入了天堂。”

21int nkorea kim 02 cbpz master1050鸭绿江断桥(右)以及连接朝中两国的中朝友谊桥。据中国官方称,近六年来首列从朝鲜开往北京的列车在经过近一天的行程后,于3月13日上午抵达。

The ​Threat

威胁

North Korea claims that it defeated Covid without vaccines, losing only a few dozen people.

朝鲜声称,该国在没有疫苗的情况下战胜了新冠疫情,仅有几十人丧生。

But as the virus spread, Kim Il-hyeok saw people ​die ​in unusual numbers in his neighborhood​ in Hwanghae Province, a breadbasket region. The authorities were siphoning rice from ​the region to feed the elites in Pyongyang and the military, he said. There were no Covid tests available so it was hard to tell whether ​they died of hunger or the virus. Those who fell sick ​did not report it to the authorities for fear of being quarantined without food. Lacking medication, they resorted to folk remedies, such as drinking tree-bark juice, that often worsened their condition.

但随着病毒的蔓延,金日赫(音)目睹了他所在的黄海道(朝鲜产粮大省)的自家社区里,出现了非同寻常的死亡人数。他说,当局不断从该地区调取大米,供养平壤的精英阶层和军队。由于无法进行新冠检测,很难分辨这些人究竟是死于饥饿还是死于病毒。生病的人不敢向当局报告,生怕面临被隔离后断粮的绝境。由于缺乏药物,他们只能求助于偏方,比如喝树皮汁,但这往往只会使他们的病情加重。

“Families didn’t have money for coffins,” said Mr. Kim,​ 36, who fled to South Korea by boat with eight relatives in 2023. “Some were not even strong enough to dig a hole.”

“很多家庭没钱买棺材,”36岁的金日赫说。2023年,他与八名亲属乘船逃到了韩国。“有些人甚至连挖坑掩埋尸体的力气都没有了。”

Kim Yu-mi, his sister-in-law, made the two-hour escape with him. She said her hometown on the southwestern coast of North Korea was so close to South Korea that in clear weather ​she could see shiny passenger jets flying in and out of ​the South’s Incheon International Airport​.

他的嫂子金有美(音)与他一同完成了这场耗时两小时的逃亡。她说,她位于朝鲜西南海岸的家乡离韩国非常近,在天气晴朗的时候,她甚至能看到闪闪发光的客机在韩国仁川国际机场起降。

“​Those planes symbolized freedom for our children​,” Ms. Kim said.​ “When a North Korean patrol ship ​detected ​our boat​ fleeing to the South and chased, ​we threw everything ​we had overboard to help it gain speed.​”

“飞机象征着我们孩子未来的自由,”金有美说。“一艘朝鲜巡逻艇发现了我们逃往韩国的船只,展开了追击,我们把船上所有的东西都扔进海里,就是为了让船跑得更快。”

​The family’s escape represented the threat ​the outside world, especially South Korea, posed to the regime​.

这个家庭的逃亡折射出外部世界——尤其是韩国——对该政权构成的威胁。

North Koreans’ trust in the government has been waning since​ the 1990s famine, according to defectors. ​As the government’s ration system collapsed, North Koreans learned to fend for themselves through informal markets where they traded goods, including those smuggled from China. The markets also became a breeding ground for corruption as officials collected kickbacks from tradespeople.

脱北者们表示,自上世纪90年代的饥荒以来,朝鲜民众对政府的信任就一直在减退。随着政府配给制度的崩溃,朝鲜人学会了通过非正规市场买卖包括中国走私品在内的商品,以此自谋生路。这些市场也成为了腐败的温床,因为官员们会向商贩索取回扣。

With those goods came memory sticks containing South Korean shows, including “Crash Landing on You,” in which a paragliding mishap takes a South Korean heiress into North Korea and into the arms of a People’s Army officer. North Koreans consumed them with a vengeance — behind closed doors and under blankets for fear of the secret police, who routinely monitored neighborhoods, Ms. Kim said.

伴随这些商品一同流入的还有装满韩国影视节目的U盘,其中就包括《爱的迫降》——该剧讲述了一位韩国财阀女继承人因滑翔伞事故意外坠落朝鲜,并与一名人民军军官相爱的故事。金有美说,朝鲜民众对此类节目的渴望达到了痴迷的程度——由于害怕常常在社区巡查的秘密警察,他们只能关起门来,躲在被窝里偷偷观看。

In 2010, Ms. Kim’s coastal town was caught in an artillery duel between the two Koreas. Residents rushed to take down portraits of state leaders to protect the images, a sign of their devotion and loyalty. By 2023, ​Ms. Kim said, about eight out of 10 people in her neighborhood ​were watching South Korean shows — a sign of how much had changed.

2010年,金有美所在的沿海小镇卷入了朝韩两国间的一场炮战。当时,居民们争先恐后地取下国家领导人的画像加以保护,以此展现他们的虔诚与忠心。然而,金有美说,到了2023年,她所在的社区里大约有八成的人都在观看韩国节目——这足以说明变化是多么巨大。

21int nkorea kim 04 cbpz master10502010年,朝鲜向韩国延坪岛发射炮弹,双方发生交火,造成两人死亡。

“Loyalty to the party ​was no longer as important as making money,” she said.

“对党的忠诚已经不再像赚钱那么重要了,”她说。

This shift alarmed Pyongyang. Kim Jong-un was increasingly worried about “nonsocialist” ​content corrupting young North Koreans, likening it to a “vicious cancer.” His regime called those who exposed themselves to outside influence “treasonous” and called for “striking them mercilessly,” according to a classified document dated June ​2024 that was obtained by the Human Rights Foundation, a New York-based nonprofit. The Times has also viewed similar internal documents smuggled out of North Korea.

这种转变引起了平壤的警觉。金正恩越来越担心“非社会主义”内容会腐蚀朝鲜的年轻人,他将其比作“恶性肿瘤”。总部位于纽约的非营利组织人权基金会获取了一份日期标注为2024年6月的机密文件。文件显示,该政权将受外界影响的人称作“叛国分子”,要求对他们进行“无情打击”。《纽约时报》也查看过被偷偷带出朝鲜的类似内部文件。

For Mr. Kim, the threat posed by freedom of information was deeply personal — his crackdown, analysts say, was driven in part by a desire to suppress knowledge of his lineage.

对金正恩而言,信息自由带来的威胁不仅关乎政权,更牵涉其切身隐秘——分析人士指出,他发起这场严打行动的部分原因是为了掩盖有关其身世血统的真相。

His mother, Ko Yong-hui, was born in Japan, according to outside historians. That made her of an inferior class in North Korea, a country built on deep hatred for Japan after decades of colonial rule. His father apparently never introduced Ms. Ko and their son to Mr. Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, defectors have said. The boy was sent to spend part of his adolescence in Switzerland.

外部历史学家指出,他的母亲高英姬出生在日本。在经历数十年殖民统治、对日本怀有深仇大恨的朝鲜,这样的身世令她处于较低阶层。据脱北者透露,金正恩的父亲显然从未向金正恩的祖父金日成引见高英姬及其儿子。这个男孩也被送到瑞士,度过了部分青春期时光。

The background of Mr. Kim’s mother — long suppressed inside North Korea — became a centerpiece of propaganda for South Korean activists in recent years. They flew leaflets by balloons with this information into North Korea, which helped set off Mr. Kim’s sweeping crackdown on outside information.

金正恩母亲的背景在朝鲜国内长期遭到封锁,但近年来却成了韩国活动人士对朝宣传的核心内容。他们利用气球将印有这些信息的传单空投进朝鲜,这也成了触发金正恩全面封杀外部信息的导火索之一。

“He was a child hidden from his grandfather, exiled overseas and brought back home after the grandfather’s death,” said Kim Kang, a North Korean diplomat in Russia who defected to South Korea.

“他是一个被藏起来不让祖父看见的孩子,曾被流放海外,直到祖父死后才被接回家,”叛逃至韩国的前朝鲜驻俄罗斯外交官金江(音)说。

2010年,金正恩与其父、时任朝鲜最高领导人金正日在平壤。目前没有金正恩与爷爷、朝鲜建国者金日成的已知合影照片。
2010年,金正恩与其父、时任朝鲜最高领导人金正日在平壤。目前没有金正恩与爷爷、朝鲜建国者金日成的已知合影照片。 Yao Dawei/Xinhua, via Associated Press

Before she died in 2004, Ms. Ko helped ensure that Kim Jong-il chose their son as heir. Still, Mr. Kim’s “complex was that of the son of a royal concubine,” said Kwak Gil-sup, a North Korea expert at the Seoul-based One Korea Center.

在2004年去世前,高英姬协助确保金正日选定他们的儿子作为接班人。即便如此,首尔的朝韩一家中心(One Korea Center)的朝鲜问题专家郭吉燮(音)表示,金正恩心里仍有一种“王室庶子情结”。

“When his father was alive, he struggled to win his favor,” Mr. Kwak said. “After he took power, he was driven to prove different and better than his father.”

“父亲还在世时,他曾竭力争取父亲欢心,”郭吉燮说。“掌权之后,他一心想要证明自己与父亲不同,并且比父亲更出色。”

The ​Crackdown

镇压

When he succeeded his father in 2011, Mr. Kim promised North Koreans that they would no longer have to “tighten their belt.” He cast himself as a “people-first” leader, surveying floodwaters by speedboat, visiting victims in temporary shelters and cradling babies on his lap.

2011年接掌父位之初,金正恩向朝鲜人民承诺,他们不必再“勒紧裤腰带过日子了”。他将自己塑造成一位“以民为本”的领导人——乘快艇视察洪涝灾区,到临时安置点探望灾民,把婴儿抱在膝上。

​But his expensive pursuit of nuclear weapons and his own extravagan​t lifestyle jarred with the reality of regular citizens.

然而,他对核武器的巨额投入与自身的奢靡生活与普通百姓的现实处境形成了刺眼的反差。

While humanitarian agencies reported widespread malnourishment in the country, Mr. Kim’s waistline ballooned, his weight raising questions about his health. Inheriting his father’s love for wining and dining, he gorged on Wagyu steak, toro tuna, shark fin soup, Swiss cheese, lobster, caviar and foie gras, according to chefs familiar with his dining habits. He guzzled Bordeaux wine and Cristal Champagne.

当国际人道主义机构不断报告朝鲜广泛存在营养不良问题时,金正恩的腰围却不断见涨,他的体重甚至引发外界对其健康状况的猜测。据熟悉其饮食习惯的厨师透露,他继承了父亲对美酒佳肴的嗜好,大吃和牛牛排、金枪鱼腩、鱼翅羹、瑞士奶酪、龙虾、鱼子酱和鹅肝,还狂饮波尔多红酒和水晶香槟。

Defectors said the capital, Pyongyang, often didn’t have enough electricity to run elevators. But Mr. Kim spent millions of dollars to smuggle a fleet of Mercedes and other luxury cars for personal use, Orlov Trotters from Russia for his private horse-riding tracks and dolphins for a new dolphinarium.

据脱北者称,就连首都平壤有时都没有足够电力维持电梯运行。但金正恩却花费数百万美元走私多辆梅赛德斯奔驰和其他豪车供自己使用,从俄罗斯引进奥尔洛夫快步马供其在私人马场驰骋,还为新建海豚馆购置海豚。

He exerted power by unleashing what South Korean officials called a reign of terror. He executed those who rubbed him the wrong way, including his own uncle, Jang Song-thaek. He sent agents to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, his half brother who, as his father’s first son, posed a threat to Mr. Kim’s dynastic throne.

他通过发动韩国官员所称的“恐怖统治”来巩固权力。凡是令他不满的人都可能被处决,其中包括他的姑父张成泽。他还派特工暗杀同父异母的兄长金正男。由于金正男是其父的长子,因此被视为对金正恩世袭统治地位的潜在威胁。

21int nkorea kim 06 cbpz master1050尽管金正恩迅速推动了平壤的发展,但这座城市仍缺乏足够的电力来驱动高层建筑中的电梯。

Lee Ilkyu, a former North Korean diplomat in Cuba who fled to Seoul in 2023, recalled how Han Song-ryol, another North Korean diplomat, was executed on spying charges in 2019. Mr. Lee said witnesses told him that hundreds of bullets tore Mr. Han to smithereens.

2023年逃往首尔的朝鲜前驻古巴外交官李日圭回忆说,另一名朝鲜外交官韩成烈于2019年因间谍罪被处决。李日圭说,有目击者告诉他,数百发子弹将韩成烈打得稀烂。

“They lost their appetite for days,” he said.

他说,“他们好几天都吃不下饭。”

Still, the state’s control had loosened in the decades following the famine. Then the pandemic helped Mr. Kim reassert his grip.

尽管如此,在经历了大饥荒之后的几十年里,国家的控制已经有所松动。随后,新冠疫情帮助金正恩重新收紧了控制。

21int nkorea kim 07 cbpz master1050金正恩下令处决的人员中包括他自己的姑父张成泽,图为张成泽,摄于2013年12月12日。

He enacted laws with draconian penalties, including executions by firing squad, for those consuming and distributing anti-socialist content, or even mimicking South Korean speech and fashion styles. Officials raided homes, pulling out drawers and turning over blankets to find memory sticks with foreign entertainment, according to defectors

他颁布了一系列严苛法律,对观看和传播反社会主义内容、乃至模仿韩国口音和时尚风格的人处以枪决。据脱北者称,官员会突击搜查民宅,翻抽屉、掀被褥,搜缴存有境外娱乐内容的存储设备。

Kim Il-hyeok, the defector who fled by boat, said he saw a score of killings in his town in the three years before his escape, compared with half a dozen in the previous two decades. Executions took place in ​schoolyards and other open spaces where the condemned were denounced before thousands of people. Mr. Kim recounted how a 22-year-old man he knew was executed in 2022 for distributing three South Korean dramas and 70 K-pop songs. He was clad in a long white sack-like robe and had a hood over his head. Three gunmen each fired five shots.

乘船逃离朝鲜的脱北者金日赫表示,在他逃离前的三年里,仅在自己生活的城镇就目睹了约20起处决,而此前20年总共也不过六起。处决在学校操场和其他空地上进行,被处决者会在数千名群众面前遭公开批斗。金日赫回忆,他认识的一名22岁男子在2022年因传播三部韩剧和70首K-pop歌曲而被处决。当时那名年轻人身上套着一件白色麻袋状的长袍,头上罩着头套,三名行刑者各开五枪。

“When you watch enough of them, you grow numb, unable to tell a human from an animal,” ​he said.​

“看多了,人就麻木了,分不清人跟动物有什么区别,”他说。

21int nkorea kim 03 cbpz master1050电视剧《爱的迫降》中的一个场景,孙艺珍在剧中饰演一位韩国女继承人,她因意外驾驶滑翔伞飞入朝鲜,并与玄彬饰演的朝鲜军官坠入爱河。

​By the time they ​fled North Korea,​ ​the authorities had all but stamped out unofficial markets, his sister-in-law, Ms. Kim, said. ​They reinstalled socialist control on the production and distribution of goods​. Rice and other grains were available only through government stores.

到他们逃离朝鲜时,当局几乎已经完全取缔了地下市场,金日赫的嫂子说道。政府重新建立起社会主义体制下对商品生产和流通的控制,大米等粮食只能通过国营商店购买。

“The most difficult part of Kim Jong-un’s rule was that we were not allowed to make money,”​ Ms. Kim said. “​He tightened the noose on his people, as if he didn’t want them to have a better life.”

“金正恩统治时期最困难的一点,就是不让我们赚钱,”金日赫的嫂子说。“他不断收紧套在人民脖子上的绞索,仿佛不愿让他们过上好日子。”

The ​War Bonanza

发战争财

Around this time, Mr. Ishimaru of Asia Press received covert reports from North Korea of a nation sinking into despair.

大约在这一时期,《亚洲新闻》的石丸次郎不断收到来自朝鲜的秘密报告,描绘的是一个正在陷入绝望的国度。

Citizens, he said, “saw no way forward, didn’t know how they were supposed to live on” — paralyzed by Mr. Kim’s relentless push for a “self‑reliant” economy, a tired slogan that took on a devastating new meaning during pandemic-driven shortages.

他说,民众“看不到出路,不知道该如何活下去”,他们被金正恩对“自力更生”经济的执念所困,这个老套的口号在疫情期间的物资短缺中产生了毁灭性的新含义。

But even as Mr. Kim strangled foreign influence at home, he was scheming abroad — maneuvering to arrest his country’s economic tailspin.

然而,就在金正恩在国内扼杀外来影响的同时,他也在国际上悄然布局,试图挽救国家经济的螺旋式下滑。

With all its major exports blocked​ under international sanctions, North Korea sought revenue by smuggling out coal and collecting wages earned by its workers in China, who ​continued to work for Mr. Kim’s government during the pandemic​. Mr. Kim unleashed an army of hackers and computer engineers online to steal billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency ​and earn cash by doing freelance IT work with false identities.​

由于主要出口产品都受到国际制裁限制,朝鲜开始通过走私煤炭以及收取在中国工作的朝鲜劳工工资来获取收入。这些工人在疫情期间也继续为金正恩政府工作。金正恩还派出了一支庞大的黑客计算机工程师队伍,通过网络窃取了价值数十亿美元的加密货币,并以虚假身份承接IT外包项目换取现金。

Gold nuggets became an important item to smuggle out of North Korea to sell and raise foreign currency for the state, favored because of their small size, said a senior North Korean trade official who operated in Asia for a decade before defecting to South Korea last year. An internal North Korean document seen by The Times noted that a North Korean consulate vehicle in Dandong, a Chinese border city, was used to smuggle gold into China.

据一名在亚洲为朝鲜从事了十年贸易工作、去年逃至韩国的朝鲜高级贸易官员透露,金块因体积小而成为朝鲜走私出境、换取外汇的重要商品。《纽约时报》看到的一份朝鲜内部文件显示,朝鲜驻中国边境城市丹东的领事办公室的车辆曾被用于向中国走私黄金。

North Korea​n government smugglers ​imported precision tools used to make weapons​, paying high margins for middlemen involved in evading sanctions, said the former ​trade official​, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his relatives in the North.

这名前贸易官员还说,朝鲜政府的走私人员还进口了用于武器制造的精密工具,并为规避制裁的中间商支付了高额佣金。出于保护仍留在朝鲜亲属的考虑,这名官员要求匿名

​But Mr. Kim needed more to revive an economy that had been hobbled by the double whammy of the world’s severest sanctions and the pandemic.

但金正恩需要更多手段来重振因全球最严厉制裁和疫情双重打击而陷入瘫痪的经济。

He saw an opportunity after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, offering North Korean troops and munitions.

2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后,金正恩看到了机会。他向俄罗斯提供军队和弹药。

21int nkorea kim 08 cbpz master1050国家媒体发布的一张照片显示,2025年,金正恩在朝鲜一家军火工厂。

​Munitions factories ​roared to meet demand for Russia’s war effort.​ About 16,000 North Korean troops have fought in the war, testing their weapons in combat and gaining valuable insights into modern warfare, including the use of drones, according to South Korean intelligence officials. North Korea also sent workers to Russia to earn cash for its regime, they said. Military experts fear that with Russian help, ​North Korea is building its first nuclear-powered submarine and other modern warships, as well as a fleet of military drones.

军工厂为了满足俄罗斯战争需求而开足马力。韩国情报机构称,约有1.6万名朝鲜士兵参与了战争,他们在实战中测试武器,并获得了关于现代战争的重要经验,包括无人机使用。韩国官员还表示,朝鲜向俄罗斯派遣劳工为政权赚取外汇。军事专家担心,在俄罗斯帮助下,朝鲜正在建造其首艘核动力潜艇以及其他现代化军舰,并打造一支军用无人机机群。

In 2024, North Korea’s economy expanded 3.7 percent, the highest growth rate in eight years​, according to most recent estimates by South Korea’s central bank. ​

据韩国央行最新估算,2024年朝鲜经济增长了3.7%,为八年来最高增速。

Outside Threats

外部威胁

The Russia-North Korea military partnership has openly undermined U.N. sanctions — one of Washington’s most relied-upon diplomatic levers. The deepening relationship also serves Mr. Kim’s broader strategic aim: balancing ties between China and Russia.

俄朝军事伙伴关系公然破坏了联合国制裁——而这正是华盛顿最依赖的外交杠杆之一。这一日益深化的关系也服务于金正恩更大的战略目标:在中俄之间寻求平衡。

“North Korea has the most leverage today that it has had in the last 30 years,” said Frank Aum, a former Korea expert at the Pentagon.

“朝鲜如今所拥有的筹码是过去三十年来最多的,”前五角大楼朝鲜问题专家弗兰克·奥姆表示。

But North Korea is not out of the woods yet.​

但朝鲜仍未完全摆脱困境。

Its official exports to China have been dominated by items it could export without violating U.N. sanctions — wigs and false eyelashes and mustaches and tungsten ores. ​Mr. Kim’s crackdown on informal markets impeded the flow of cash. As trade with China rebounded, North Korea imported far more than it exported, eroding its foreign currency reserves. In the past year,​ the North Korean won has depreciated more than two-thirds against the dollar while rice prices there have more than tripled.

其对华官方出口以不违反联合国制裁的商品为主——假发、假睫毛、假胡须以及钨矿石。金正恩对地下市场的打击阻碍了现金流通。随着对华贸易反弹,朝鲜的进口远大于出口,持续消耗外汇储备。过去一年,朝鲜元对美元贬值超过三分之二,而大米价格涨幅超过两倍。

Transactions with Russia have not significantly helped ease North Korea’s shortage of foreign currency. Neither side can convert their cash piles into usable currencies without attracting regulatory scrutiny, said Olena Guseinova, a lecturer at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul​.

与俄罗斯的交易也未能显著缓解朝鲜外汇短缺问题。首尔韩国外国语大学讲师奥莱娜·古谢诺娃表示,俄朝双方都难以在不引起监管机构关注的情况下将各自持有的大量现金兑换成可自由使用的货币。

​But in the past couple of years, there have been clear signs ​of economic improvement in North Korea. ​Mr. Kim finished some of his long-delayed pet projects, like large seaside and ski and spa resort towns​ and greenhouse complexes built on airfields, including one the size of 400 soccer fields. New apartment towers​ rose not only in Pyongyang but also in provincial cities. Mr. Kim mobilized soldiers for these construction projects, funding them with remittances from North Koreans working abroad and forced donations from individuals who grew wealthy through smuggling and market activities, according to defectors and analysts.

不过,过去几年里,朝鲜经济确实出现了一些明显的改善迹象。金正恩完成了一些长期拖延的重点项目,例如大型海滨度假村滑雪温泉度假村以及建在机场旧址上的大型温室群,其中一处面积相当于400个足球场。新的住宅高楼不仅出现在平壤,也出现在地方城市。根据脱北者和分析人士说法,金正恩动员军队参与建设项目,并利用海外劳工汇款以及依靠走私和各种市场活动积累起财富的人被强制摊派的捐款来筹集资金。

North Korea has added more oil terminals at its ports and there are more cars, buses, trucks and construction equipment visible across the country, said Joung Eunlee, an analyst at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Unification Studies, who studied satellite imagery and interviewed recent visitors.

位于首尔的韩国统一研究院研究员郑恩利(音)通过研究卫星图像和采访近期访朝人士分析称,朝鲜已在多处港口新建石油码头,全国范围内可见的汽车、公交车、卡车和工程设备也增加了。

21int nkorea kim 09 cbpz master1050朝鲜官方媒体发布了一张照片,称照片中显示金正恩、其女儿金主爱及其妻子李雪主于6月访问了江原道的元山卡尔玛沿海旅游区。

In Pyongyang, which was once dimly lit at night, neon signs blaze brighter than ever.

在曾经晚间灯光昏暗的平壤,霓虹灯比以往任何时候都明亮。

High-rise apartment towers operate their elevators at least for a few hours a day​, according to recent defectors​ and visitors.​ There are more gas stations and more privately owned cars, some of them electric vehicles from China​. People have lined up at beer halls​ in Pyongyang. Families use smartphone apps to shop and order home-delivery food. ​

据近期的脱北者和访朝人士称,高层公寓楼的电梯每天至少能运行几个小时。加油站越来越多,私家车也更多了,其中一些是中国产的电动车。人们在平壤的啤酒屋前排起长队。家庭可以通过智能手机应用购物和点外卖。

Senior officials and their families in ​Pyongyang still live a life the rest of the country can hardly imagine: spacious apartments with saunas, maids, Chinese and Japanese electronics, and elevators running 24/7, said the former trade official who defected ​last year.

去年脱北的那名前贸易官员表示,平壤的高级官员及其家属依然过着朝鲜其他地区难以想象的生活:带有桑拿浴室、有佣人服务、配备了中国和日本产电子产品的宽敞公寓,以及全天候运行的电梯。

Addressing North Korea’s rubber-stamp Parliament in March, Mr. Kim spoke in triumphant terms of a “miraculous transformation.” He pointed to manifold increases in investment and sweeping large-scale residential construction.

今年3月,金正恩在朝鲜橡皮图章式的最高人民会议上发表讲话,用胜利的口吻谈到了“奇迹般的转变”。他列举了投资大幅增长以及大规模住宅建设项目等成果。

“Ours is no longer a country that is susceptible to threats from others, ” he said.

“我们的国家不再是一个容易受到他人威胁的国家了,”他说。

FARNAZ FASSIHI

4月的德黑兰。自战争爆发以来,通货膨胀肆虐、平民伤亡和基础设施受损让伊朗人的日常生活难上加难。 Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times

When Israel and the United States attacked Iran in late February, some Iranian opponents of the Islamic Republic hoped that it would bring an end to decades of theocratic rule they saw as oppressive.

当以色列和美国在2月下旬对伊朗发动袭击时,一些反对伊斯兰共和国的伊朗人曾希望,这能结束他们眼中长达数十年的压迫性神权统治。

Now, after devastating strikes and amid a teetering ceasefire, those hopes have been snuffed out. Feelings of disillusionment and despair have taken their place, driven by a reported death toll of 1,700 civilians, vast destruction and an economic implosion that has made daily life a struggle.

如今,经历了毁灭性的打击之后,在停火协议摇摇欲坠之际,这些希望已经破灭。取而代之的是幻灭和绝望的情绪。据报道有1700名平民丧生、大规模破坏以及导致日常生计举步维艰的经济崩溃无不加剧了这种情绪。

The ceasefire has provided some relief from bombs, but Sunday, it was looking even shakier after Iran launched a new barrage of ballistic missiles against Israel. Iranian officials cited Israel attacks in Lebanon, but the strikes raised the specter of Israeli retaliation on Iran.

停火协议为躲避炸弹提供了一些喘息之机,但在周日,随着伊朗向以色列发射了新一轮弹道导弹,停火局面显得更加岌岌可危。伊朗官员将此归咎于以色列在黎巴嫩的袭击,但这些打击增加了以色列对伊朗进行报复的担忧。

Beyond the military skirmishes, an economic war has sent the prices of basic goods skyrocketing. The crippling of critical industries and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key trading route for Iran’s most precious export, oil — have tipped the already troubled economy into free fall.

除了军事冲突之外,经济战也导致了基本商品价格飙升。关键产业的瘫痪以及霍尔木兹海峡的实质性关闭令本就陷入困境的经济陷入自由落体式的衰退,霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗最宝贵的出口商品石油的关键贸易通道。

The on-again, off-again peace talks, along with U.S. proclamations that the war is over when it’s not, have left both supporters and opponents of the government confused and anxious, according to interviews using voice apps with more than 20 Iranians in Tehran, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Mashhad in the days before Sunday’s strikes.

在周日的空袭发生前几天,通过语音应用对德黑兰、伊斯法罕、阿瓦士和马什哈德的20多名伊朗人进行的采访显示,断断续续的和平谈判、美国在战争并未结束时便宣称战争已结束的言论让政府的支持者和反对者都感到困惑和焦虑。

“I’m angry. I feel alone,” Kimia, a 25-year-old designer, said in an interview from Tehran. “We don’t matter to the world at all; we’re only seen as tools for war and negotiation, while we are human beings.”

“我很愤怒。我感到孤独,”25岁的设计师基米亚在德黑兰接受采访时说。“对这个世界来说,我们根本不重要。我们只是被当做战争和谈判的工具,而我们也是活生生的人。”

For some of those desperate for regime change, learning that Israel and the United States had initially planned to install a former hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as the country’s new ruler was a painful indignity. In interviews and in social media posts, several said that the disclosure of the plan by The New York Times left them feeling like bystanders in a geopolitical game with direct impact on their lives.

对于那些极度渴望政权更迭的人来说,得知以色列和美国最初曾计划扶植前强硬派总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德作为该国新统治者是一种痛苦的侮辱。在采访和社交媒体的帖子中,一些人表示,《纽约时报》披露的这一计划让他们觉得,自己就像是一场地缘政治游戏中的旁观者,而这场游戏却直接影响着他们的生活。

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s longtime supreme leader, was killed in strikes on the first day of the war in February and has since been replaced by his son.

伊朗长期以来的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在2月开战第一天的袭击中丧生,此后由他的儿子接任。

“What was this all for?” asked Amirali, a 62-year-old engineer in Tehran, in an interview. “They bombed and destroyed our country, our airports, roads and factories in the name of regime change so they could bring Ahmadinejad? This shows the goal was never to make Iran better or free.”

“这一切都是为了什么?”德黑兰62岁的工程师阿米拉利在采访中问道。“他们以政权更迭的名义轰炸和摧毁我们的国家、我们的机场、道路和工厂,难道就是为了让艾哈迈迪-内贾德上台?这说明他们的目标从来不是让伊朗变得更好或自由。”

07int iran disillusion thkb master10504月,一名男子站在德黑兰自己被毁的公寓内。虽然脆弱的停火协议在一定程度上缓解了人们对随时可能丧生的恐惧,但许多受访者表示,局势依然不明朗,令人感到焦虑。

Like all the Iranians interviewed, Kimia and Amirali asked to be identified only by their first names to avoid any possible retaliation.

与所有受访的伊朗人一样,基米亚和阿米拉利要求只使用他们的名字,以避免遭到任何可能的报复。

It has been a tumultuous year for Iranians. The United States and Israel struck Iran first in June 2025 in a short war and then attacked again starting in late February, hitting factories, airports, seaports, bridges, universities and densely populated residential neighborhoods. President Donald Trump said this latest war was meant to create conditions to displace the regime and to ensure Iran could never get a nuclear weapon.

对于伊朗人来说,这是动荡的一年。2025年6月,美国和以色列在一场短暂的战争中率先打击了伊朗,随后又从2026年2月下旬开始再次发动袭击,打击了工厂、机场、海港、桥梁、大学以及人口密集的住宅区。特朗普总统表示,最近的这场战争旨在为推翻现政权创造条件,并确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器。

Negotiations to end the conflict appear to be at a standstill, with one of the main sticking points being the Strait of Hormuz.

旨在结束冲突的谈判似乎陷入停滞,主要症结之一是霍尔木兹海峡问题。

Iran shut down internet service to the general public from the start of the war until late May, saying it was for national security reasons. Now that more people are back on social media, many of them are able to communicate with the world and with one another. Their messages paint a dire picture.

从战争开始到5月下旬,伊朗以国家安全为由关闭了面向普通公众的互联网服务。现在,随着更多的人重新使用社交媒体,许多人得以同世界以及彼此进行交流。他们传达的信息描绘了一幅严峻的景象。

A retired professor in Tehran who was critical of the government said in an interview that people had simply given up on political change and were focused on surviving day to day. A manager of a plastic bottle factory near Mashhad said production was shut down and all employees furloughed because it lacked raw materials after Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s petrochemical industry. A doctor in Isfahan said pharmacies were rationing medicine, and that the Health Ministry had advised doctors to prescribe only essential medications because of shortages.

德黑兰一位批评政府的退休教授在采访中表示,人们已经完全放弃了政治变革,只顾得上每天的生存。马什哈德附近一家塑料瓶工厂的经理说,由于以色列对伊朗石化工业发动空袭,导致原材料短缺,工厂已经停产,所有员工都被迫休假。伊斯法罕的一名医生表示,药店正在实行药品配给,而且由于物资短缺,卫生部已建议医生只开出基本药物。

07int iran disillusion hjbk master1050德黑兰的一名街头小贩,他身后的墙上写着反美标语。

Many Iranians — even those who have opposed the theocratic regime — say they oppose the war and have suffered enough. They are increasingly looking at diplomatic negotiations as a means for stabilizing the country and the economy.

许多伊朗人——即使是那些曾经反对神权政权的人——都表示他们反对这场战争,并认为他们已经受够了苦难。他们越来越将外交谈判视为稳定国家和经济的一种手段。

“I am definitely in favor of negotiations right now given the circumstances,” said Lida, a 44-year-old environmental expert in Tehran who has been opposed to the government. “We lost a lot of lives and lost a lot of our infrastructure. We lost a lot of human resources and, to be honest, I don’t think that war is in our best interest.”

“考虑到目前的情况,我绝对赞成现在的谈判,”在德黑兰工作、44岁的环保专家、一直反对政府的莉达说。“我们失去了很多生命,损失了大量基础设施。我们失去了很多人力资源,说实话,我不认为战争符合我们的最大利益。”

Analysts say that the huge airstrikes led many Iranians who initially supported the war to change their minds.

分析人士表示,大规模空袭使得许多最初支持战争的伊朗人改变了想法。

“This is a moment of Iranians taking stock of the reality and calculating things that have worked and have not worked,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Accepting the resilience of the regime despite all your hopes is a very bitter moment for those opposing the regime to digest. It has arguably left the regime more powerful than it was.”

“此时此刻,伊朗人正在审视现实,评估哪些有效,哪些无效,”欧洲外交关系委员会高级研究员艾莉·盖兰马耶说。“尽管你抱有种种希望,但不得不承认这个政权的韧性,对于反对政权的人来说,这是一个非常痛苦且难以消化的时刻。可以说,这使得现政权比以前更加强大了。”

Trump’s contradictory remarks about Iran have further inflamed confusion and fury, analysts and several people interviewed said. He initially said help was on the way to Iranian protesters, then threatened to annihilate Iran’s ancient civilization. On Thursday in comments to the media, Trump said that he would “be honored” to meet Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, if a deal was reached with Tehran.

分析人士和几位受访者表示,特朗普关于伊朗自相矛盾的言论进一步加剧了困惑和愤怒。他最初表示将向伊朗抗议者提供援助,随后又威胁要彻底消灭伊朗古老的文明。在上周四对媒体发表的评论中,特朗普表示,如果与德黑兰达成协议,他将“很荣幸地”会见伊朗新任最高领袖阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。

That comment became an instant news headline in Iran, and people flooded social media with commentary and jokes, some referring to the fact that the ayatollah has not been seen in public since the war started. “Well, 90 million people in Iran want to see him too, but it’s a shame they don’t have that fortune. And now you’re arriving late and you want to get ahead of the line?” Ahmad Mosaddegh wrote on social media.

这一言论立刻成为伊朗的新闻头条,人们在社交媒体上发布了大量评论和段子,一些人提到,这位阿亚图拉自战争开始以来就未曾在公开场合露面。“好吧,伊朗的9000万人也想见他,但很遗憾他们没那个福气。你姗姗来迟,怎么现在还想插队?”艾哈迈德·摩萨台在社交媒体上写道。

But as the war drags on, some government supporters are also losing patience with their leaders.

但随着战争的拖延,一些政府支持者也对他们的领导人失去了耐心。

Mehdi, a 52-year-old government employee, said in an interview that he had attended pro-government rallies with his wife and children. But he said his salary runs out by the middle of the month, and he cannot afford to buy beef or chicken to feed his family.

52岁的政府雇员迈赫迪在采访中说,他曾和妻子、孩子一起参加过支持政府的集会。但他表示,他的工资到月中就花光了,他买不起牛肉或鸡肉来养家。

07int iran disillusion jblh master10505月,德黑兰的一处批发市场。过去一年间,鸡蛋、食用油等许多生活必需品价格大幅飙升,有的涨至原来的两倍、三倍,甚至四倍。

And Hamed, a pro-government conservative, said in an interview that “the rising prices don’t distinguish between supporters and opponents of the government; it’s affecting us all.”

而亲政府的保守派人士哈米德在接受采访时表示:“不断上涨的物价并不会区分政府的支持者和反对者,它影响着我们所有人。”

Iran’s official statistics center announced last week that inflation had spiked compared with this period last year. The report said the price of cooking oil had increased by 430%, eggs by 345%, rice by 287% and milk by 139%.

伊朗官方统计中心上周宣布,与去年同期相比,通货膨胀率大幅飙升。报告称,食用油价格上涨了430%,鸡蛋上涨了345%,大米上涨了287%,牛奶上涨了139%。

“Nobody is thinking of them or taking their opinions into consideration,” Sanam Vakil, the Middle East and North Africa director for Chatham House, said, adding that Iranians she reached inside the country kept asking her what would happen to them. “They are just a casualty in this conflict that is beyond their influence and grasp.”

“没有人考虑到他们,也没有人考虑他们的意见,”英国皇家国际事务研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔说,她还说,她能联系到的伊朗国内民众一直在问她,他们的处境将会如何。“在这场他们无力影响、无法掌控的冲突中,他们只是无辜的牺牲品。”

DAVID WALLACE-WELLS

Ibrahim Rayintakath

They used to call the World Cup, unequivocally, the planet’s biggest sporting event. But it is about to start, right here in North America, and no one much seems to care. Thousands of tickets remain unsold, and just weeks ago, others were being resold well below their official price. In cities around the United States, air traffic isn’t materializing, and hotels that had counted on millions of dollars in additional revenue are watching it trickle instead. FIFA has had to cancel block reservations of rooms, and there’s talk of a global boycott as a kind of protest against President Trump — his wars, his border policies, his imperial vulgarity. When the games begin, interest will surely surge. But at the moment it seems there is less anticipation than there was for this past weekend’s club soccer Champions League final between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain. And I think this might be telling us something, beyond the world of sports, about the global landscape of politics and culture.

过去,人们总是毫不含糊地把世界杯称为全球最大的体育赛事。但这届即将在北美举行的赛事却似乎没有太多人关注。数千张门票仍未售出,就在几周前,一些门票的转售价格甚至远低于官方售价。在美国的各大赛事举办城市,预期的航空客流并未出现,那些指望借世界杯增加数百万美元收入的酒店只能眼看着收益远低于预期。国际足联不得不取消许多批量预定的酒店客房。还有人呼吁发起全球抵制,以抗议特朗普总统——抗议他的战争、边境政策以及他那带有帝国主义色彩的粗鄙作风。当然,等比赛真正开始后,关注度肯定会上升。但眼下看来,人们对世界杯的期待甚至还不如上周末阿森纳对巴黎圣日耳曼的欧冠决赛。而且我认为,这或许向我们昭示了一些体育世界之外的、关于全球政治与文化格局的深层走向。

In the States, the indifference might not be surprising, even though the event is being played mostly on U.S. soil. The U.S. team is more talented than in the past but hasn’t looked impressive for years. Soccer is still a growth sport rather than a dominant one in this country, and many Americans aren’t exactly feeling the flush of simplistic patriotism these days. On top of which, the tickets have been priced punishingly high.

在美国,这种漠不关心或许并不令人意外,尽管赛事主要在美国举行。美国队的实力比过去更强,但多年来表现并不出众。足球在这个国家仍是一项新兴运动,远未跻身主流,而眼下许多美国人也无心涌动那种简单直接的爱国热情。此外,门票价格高得离谱。

What is more striking to me is the muted interest of the rest of the world, which every four years for decades seemed to pause for a month to engage in a truly global but appealingly low-stakes performance of tribal nationalism. These days the World Cup no longer seems to tower over the rest of the sporting universe quite so much, with club soccer building a new global ubiquity over the past dozen years or so — if not quite displacing the World Cup at the top of the soccer pecking order, then at least taking a place right beside it.

更让我感到意外的是,世界其他地方同样兴趣寥寥。几十年来,每格四年,全球各地似乎都会按下暂停键,用整整一个月的时间去尽情投入一场真正席卷全球、却又无伤大雅的民族主义表演。如今,随着俱乐部足球在过去十余年间构建起全新的全球影响力,世界杯对整个体育版图的统治已不复当年之盛——即使俱乐部赛事尚未将其从足球食物链的顶端彻底取而代之,至少也已与之并驾齐驱。

What makes this shift so striking is that it has happened alongside a rising tide of political nationalism around the world, which you might think would produce a great surge in soccer nationalism, too. Instead, the age of global populism has coincided with intense interest in the biggest club teams — for-hire rosters assembled largely from international talent by megacorporations boasting jersey sponsorships from foreign conglomerates. Those teams made up of local prodigies wearing their national colors and playing their hearts out for love of country? They still matter to fans, of course. But no one could even pretend to illustrate the age of global populism by talking about the intensity of popular feeling about national teams.

这一转变之所以引人注目,是因为它恰恰发生在全球政治民族主义浪潮高涨之际——你可能会认为,这也会极大地激发足球民族主义。然而事实却是,在全球民粹主义时代,人们狂热关注的反而是那些顶级俱乐部球队——由跨国巨头打造、球衣印着外国大型企业赞助商、依靠全球人才组建的雇佣军式阵容。那些由身披国旗颜色的本土天才组成、为了祖国荣誉拼尽全力的国家队呢?它们对球迷当然仍然重要。但如果时至今日,还有人试图用大家对国家队的激情作为这个全球民粹主义时代的缩影,那这套说辞恐怕连自圆其说都做不到了。

Perhaps this is because if international soccer once channeled nationalistic passions toward athletic competition, in an age of actual nationalism we may need less of an outlet for those feelings. Or it could be because, as Franklin Foer suggested a couple of decades ago in “How Soccer Explains the World,” the tribalism of club soccer was a natural check on feelings of nationalism — and itself a form of resistance to globalism. Or maybe it’s simply because club soccer runs for most of the year, instead of for one month every four, with games played weekly and sometimes more often. How much soccer can fans absorb? How many opportunities for cathexis do they need?

 或许是因为,如果说国际足球曾经将民族主义热情走引导向体育竞技,在如今这个民族主义盛行的时代,我们可能不再需要如此多的宣泄渠道。也可能如富兰克林·富尔在20年前《足球如何解释世界》(How Soccer Explains the World)一书中所暗示的,俱乐部足球的部落性是对民族主义情感的天然制衡——其本身就是对全球化的一种抵抗形式。抑或仅仅是因为俱乐部赛事贯穿全年大半时间,每周乃至更频繁地上演,而非四年才有一个月。球迷究竟能消化多少足球?他们又需要多少这样的情感投注机会?

But this pattern nevertheless feels like a puzzle to me. This is perhaps in part because one of the descriptions of the new age of populism during its early days noted that it was powered by people who felt abandoned by their nations’ elites, who had through wealth and cosmopolitanism graduated into a kind of global business sphere — almost the way local soccer stars would graduate to bigger clubs and leave behind their roots.

然而,这种模式对我来说仍然像个谜。部分原因在于,在民粹主义新时代刚开始时,人们常常认为它的动力来自那些感觉被本国精英抛弃的人——那些精英凭借财富与世界主义已跻身某种全球商业圈层,这有点像地方足球明星加盟更大的俱乐部后把自己的家乡抛在身后一样。

That is also a pretty good description of how globalization changed club soccer itself. Beginning in the 1990s and then accelerating strongly in the 2000s and 2010s, the leading leagues (chiefly the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga) and the leading clubs (Real Madrid, Manchester United and Barcelona, for instance) began stocking their rosters with global talent and then serving it back to global audiences via rapidly expanding cable and satellite television. This has been a phenomenally successful business proposition, but the cultural fallout feels a little stranger, with, for instance, New York’s Uganda-born, ethnically Indian mayor celebrating Arsenal’s Premier League championship and its race through the Champions League at least as intensely as he has the Knicks’ run to the N.B.A. finals, and Barstool Sports’ Massachusetts-born gadfly-bro Dave Portnoy celebrating Tottenham’s avoiding a relegation disaster on the season’s final day with as much passion as he tends to show for the Patriots or the Red Sox. When it comes to club soccer, fandom is now pretty global — which is to say, in many cases pretty arbitrary.

这同样是对全球化如何改变俱乐部足球本身的一个贴切写照。这一进程始于1990年代,2000至2010年代更是大幅提速,各大顶级联赛(主要是英格兰超级联赛和西班牙甲级联赛)以及各顶级俱乐部(如皇家马德里、曼彻斯特联队和巴塞罗那)大规模引入全球人才,再经由迅速扩张的有线和卫星电视网络将球星阵容输送给全球受众。这在商业层面取得了惊人成功,但从文化角度看,其后果却显得有些奇怪。例如,出生于乌干达、有印度族裔背景的纽约市长对阿森纳英超夺冠和欧冠征程的热情丝毫不亚于他对纽约尼克斯打进NBA总决赛的关注;而Barstool Sports那位马萨诸塞州出生的嘴欠老哥戴夫·波特诺伊庆祝热刺在赛季最后一天避免降级灾难时所表现出的激情也丝毫不逊于他支持爱国者队或红袜队时的热情。在俱乐部足球这个领域,球迷群体现在已相当全球化——换句话说,在很多情况下,球迷对一支队伍的追捧其实带有很强的偶然性。

In theory, national teams should offer a different appeal, one that is less arbitrary. And a way for those who feel their countries have been drained of patriotism and national identity to enact their fantasy of replenishing those feelings. In the time of Marine Le Pen, you might expect French football fans to be especially animated about Les Bleus, for instance, instead of raging about criticism from the team’s Black star Kylian Mbappé. In Britain’s Reform era, you might expect a kind of national revival of the proud hooliganism of earlier, less globalized eras. You might see that hooliganism on the streets of Tommy Robinson’s Unite the Kingdom rallies, but when it comes to soccer, London seems more worked up about Arsenal than about the Lions. The Oasis reunion tour might prove a bigger event for national unity than the World Cup.

理论上,国家队应该提供一种不同的、不那么随意的吸引力。对于那些感到国家被抽空了爱国情感和民族认同的人来说,更是一种重拾和填补这些情感的想象空间。例如,在玛丽娜·勒庞的时代,你可能会期望法国足球迷对国家队格外热情,而不是对队中黑人球星基利安·姆巴佩发表的批评火冒三丈。在英国改革党崛起的时代,人们或许会期待看到早期的、不是那么全球化时代的那种带有民族主义色彩的足球流氓文化在全国卷土重来。你或许能在汤米·罗宾逊的“团结王国”大游行的街头看到那种流氓行径,但在足球方面,伦敦人似乎更关心阿森纳,而不是“三狮军团”。甚至连绿洲乐队重组巡演都可能比世界杯更能凝聚英国人的人心。

Why would this be? One simple answer is just that club soccer has gotten too big and too important to too many people, sometimes demonstrating play at a much higher level than international competition can offer. Others have argued that FIFA’s 2015 corruption scandal had taken a toll, that the organization’s off-putting president has steered FIFA in the wrong direction or that the recent run of host sites — Russia, Qatar, the United States — has come with a cost. And because national teams rarely play together, with players from many different leagues sometimes parachuting in for a weekend to play a World Cup qualifier, the spectacle itself feels a bit drained of meaning — a bit more corporate, thin, pallid.

为什么会这样?一个简单的答案是,俱乐部足球已经变得过于庞大,对太多人来说过于重要,有时其比赛水平远高于国际比赛。还有人认为,国际足联2015年的腐败丑闻留下了难以消弭的阴影,国际足联那位不受欢迎的主席把组织带偏了方向,而俄罗斯、卡塔尔、美国这一连串东道主选择也让这项盛事付出了声誉代价。此外,国家队队员难得聚首,来自不同联赛的球员往往只是临时集结踢几场预选赛,这使得整个赛事的意义被抽空,给人的感觉更为商业化、更单薄、更苍白。

But I think it’s possible to see something deeper at work, too. Take the episode in France, in which Mbappé ignited a right-wing furor when he suggested he was worried about the rise of Le Pen’s National Rally party and what it meant for the future of the nation. Whenever athletes talk politics, it risks a backlash; think of Laura Ingraham’s “Shut up and dribble,” for instance, or for that matter, the recent anguish over the Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart’s introducing President Trump at a political rally. But here we had a conflict even more difficult to reconcile, in which the face of the country’s national team declared that one of its major parties seemed to have no place for him in its vision of France, at least as he saw it, and then that party’s leaders responded by illustrating the point, treating him even more as a traitorous interloper and a kind of undeserving vessel for their national pride.

但我认为,背后可能还有更深层次的原因。以法国的事件为例,姆巴佩曾表示自己担心勒庞领导的国民联盟崛起以及这对法国未来意味着什么,这立刻引发了右翼阵营的怒火。运动员发表政治意见总会遭遇反弹——想想吧,例如美国主持人劳拉·英格拉汉姆曾对勒布朗·詹姆斯说过“闭嘴,好好打你的球”;又或者最近围绕纽约巨人队四分卫杰克森·达特在政治集会上介绍特朗普所引发的争议。但这里我们遇到了一个更难调和的冲突:法国国家队的门面人物公开宣称,该国一大主要政党的法国愿景中似乎没有他的位置——至少在他看来如此。而那个政党的领导人随后的反应又恰恰印证了他的判断,将他视为背信弃义的外来闯入者,不配承载他们的民族自豪感。

This kind of conflict is no longer so unusual, with the rosters of national teams now drawn from various diasporas and internal pockets of recent migration and less closely resembling the blood-and-soil fantasies of unapologetic right-wingers. This is the kind of development that might compel Barack Obama to celebrate France’s victory in the 2018 World Cup but that may offer a different kind of meaning for, let’s say, those hoping to reassert the centrality of ethnicity for national identity.

这种冲突如今已不再罕见,国家队阵容现在来自不同的移民后裔以及新移民社群,与公然的右翼分子所幻想的“血脉与土地”的民族图景越来越不吻合。这种转变可能令巴拉克·奥巴马为法国2018年世界杯夺冠欢欣雀跃,但对那些急于以族裔来重新定义国家认同核心的人而言,其意义可能截然不同。

And that may tell us something about the broader phenomenon, too. Namely, that what we identify as nationalism in global affairs might be better described as a form of parochialism, with populists making particular claims not about the nation per se so much as the ways it should be reformed — presumably toward some reactionary ideal, its contours often more local than genuinely national. In this reading, globalization hasn’t just generated a backlash among those who resent deindustrialization, capital flight and the stateless lives of the world’s billionaires. It has also made the nation itself seem like a somewhat untrustworthy unit of political and social organization to many people on the right. For them, what might once have served as a source of patriotism and pride now produces feelings of resentment and regret. Not that liberals aren’t queasy about nationalism these days, either. For all of us, rooting for Arsenal or P.S.G. might now be more appealing precisely because it’s essentially meaningless.

而这或许也在更宏观的层面上揭示了某些东西。具体而言,我们在全球事务中定义的民族主义或许更应该被描述为一种地方主义。民粹主义者所提出的那些具体主张与其说是关于“国家本身应该如何”,不如说是关于“国家应该以何种方式被改造”——通常朝着某种反动的理想方向,其轮廓往往更具地方色彩,而非真正意义上的国家高度。从这个角度看,全球化不仅引发了那些不满产业空心化、资本外流以及全球富豪无国界生活方式的人们的反弹;对于许多右翼人士来说,它还让“国家”本身也变成了一个不那么值得信赖的政治和社会组织单位。对这些人而言,过去曾经激发爱国心与自豪感的事物如今反而更容易带来怨恨和失落。当然,自由派如今对民族主义也同样感到不安。对我们所有人来说,支持阿森纳或巴黎圣日耳曼现在可能更具吸引力,恰恰是因为这种热爱在本质上是没有意义的。


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郭莉莉, STEPHANIE NOLEN

5月,埃博拉疫情的重灾区蒙布瓦卢镇,一具据信死于埃博拉病毒的年轻女子的棺材被送去安葬。 Arlette Bashizi for The New York Times

As Ebola spreads in East Africa, the United States is playing a much smaller role than it has in previous outbreaks. That leaves China, an economic powerhouse with epidemic control and biotech expertise, as the next global power that could commit supplies, money and medical workers to the effort.

埃博拉病毒在东非蔓延,而美国发挥的作用远小于以往疫情爆发时。这使得中国——拥有流行病控制和生物技术专业知识的经济强国——成为下一个能够为抗疫投入物资、资金和医疗人员的全球大国。

In Mongbwalu, a town in the Democratic Republic of Congo that is the epicenter of the outbreak, treatment centers are in dire need of equipment, medicine and basic supplies. A lack of testing has made it harder to slow the spread of the Bundibugyo virus, which caused the outbreak and for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment.

在此次疫情的中心刚果民主共和国的蒙布瓦卢镇,治疗中心极度缺乏设备、药品和基本物资。由于缺乏检测,减缓本迪布焦病毒的传播变得更加困难。正是这种病毒引发了此次疫情,且目前尚无获批的疫苗或治疗方法。

But despite Beijing’s significant investments in the region, it is unclear how much China is willing to do to help confront what could become the deadliest Ebola outbreak in history. With the United States playing a sharply diminished role compared with its emergency response in the pre-Trump era, China faces less competitive pressure to step up. And Beijing, ever cautious, is not likely to jump in quickly to help contain an outbreak in a remote, conflict-ridden region.

但是,尽管北京在该地区进行了重大投资,目前尚不清楚中国愿意提供多少帮助来应对这场可能成为史上最致命的埃博拉疫情。与特朗普时代之前的紧急响应相比,美国的作用已大幅减弱,中国面临的竞争压力也随之降低。一向谨慎的北京不太可能迅速介入,在这个偏远且冲突不断的地区帮助遏制疫情。

“Now we are in this moment of truth,” said Bradley Parks, executive director of AidData, a research lab at William & Mary.

“现在我们正处于关键时刻,”威廉玛丽学院研究实验室AidData的执行主任布拉德利·帕克斯说。

For China, this crisis is “really going to force them to answer the question: ‘Do we just let this thing run wild and let there essentially be a leadership vacuum, or do we step into the breach?’” he said. “We just don’t know if they have the appetite to step into a leadership role.”

他说,对中国而言,这场危机“确实会迫使他们回答这个问题:‘我们是任由这东西肆虐,让领导力出现实质上真空,还是挺身而出填补空白?’我们只是不知道他们是否有意愿承担领导角色。”

China took a tentative first step this week, almost three weeks after the outbreak was declared. It sent a five-person team of medical experts to Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, more than 1,000 miles from the center of the outbreak.

在疫情宣布暴发近三周后,中国在本周迈出了试探性的第一步,向距离疫情中心约1600公里的刚果首都金沙萨派遣了一个由五人组成的医疗专家组。

06int china ebola DRC delegation master1050中国医疗队成员于周二抵达刚果民主共和国首都金沙萨,照片由官方媒体发布。

They brought with them protective equipment and lab supplies. Lu Ming, the head of the mission, told state media China was “fulfilling its duties as a major power.”

他们随身携带了防护设备和实验室用品。代表团团长陆明对国家媒体表示,中国是在“履行大国责任”。

At the same time, Beijing has not yet publicly responded to an official African appeal for $319 million in aid. Its officials are not on a World Health Organization committee addressing the outbreak.

与此同时,北京尚未公开回应非洲官方提出的3.19亿美元援助呼吁。中国官员也没有出现在世界卫生组织应对此次疫情的委员会中。

Jin Jiyong, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University who studies global health, said he was confident China would beef up its efforts if the outbreak worsened.

上海外国语大学研究全球健康问题的晋继勇教授表示,他相信如果疫情恶化,中国将加大援助力度。

“I do think it’s a good opportunity for China to show its strengths and ambitions” particularly in public health, research and medicine, he said.

“我确实认为这是中国展示潜力和抱负的一个好机会,”他说,特别是在公共卫生、研究和医学领域。

In many ways, China is well positioned to help.

在许多方面,中国具备提供帮助的良好条件。

China, with its enormous manufacturing base, can quickly produce and ship medical supplies. It provided much of the personal protective equipment sent to Africa during the Covid pandemic. Chinese biotechnology companies, which are developing affordable and easily adaptable medical innovations, could contribute new tests and vaccines.

凭借庞大的制造业基础,中国能够迅速生产和运输医疗物资。在新冠疫情期间,运往非洲的大部分个人防护设备都是由中国提供的。中国生物技术公司正在开发价格低廉且易于适应的医疗创新产品,有望提供新的检测方法和疫苗。

During the world’s worst Ebola outbreak, which ravaged West Africa between 2014 and 2016, China mounted its largest-ever overseas humanitarian effort, sending more than $100 million worth of supplies, including ambulances, and hundreds of medical workers. For the first time, China built a biosafety lab and an infectious disease medical center overseas.

在2014年至2016年肆虐西非的全球最严重埃博拉疫情期间,中国发起了其有史以来规模最大的海外人道主义救援行动,运送了价值超过1亿美元的物资(包括救护车),并派遣了数百名医疗工作者。中国首次在海外建立了一个生物安全实验室和一个传染病医疗中心。

06int china ebola 04 hqvj master10502015年,在蒙罗维亚的一处中国埃博拉治疗点举行的仪式。在2014年至2016年的埃博拉疫情期间,中国向包括利比里亚在内的三个国家提供了援助。

China also moved more quickly then. It took only a day after the W.H.O. declared that outbreak a global health emergency for Beijing to announce it would send help. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, himself expressed support to the countries hit by the virus.

那时中国的行动也更为迅速。在世卫组织宣布那次疫情为全球突发公共卫生事件后,北京仅用了一天时间就宣布将提供帮助。中国领导人习近平亲自向遭受病毒打击的国家表达了支持。

But that was a different time, said Zhida Shang, a resident doctor at the University of Toronto who has studied China’s participation in the W.H.O. “It was pre-Covid,” he said. “Everyone still had a brighter vision for global health.”

但那是一个不同的时期,多伦多大学研究中国参与世卫组织事务的住院医生尚志达(音)说。“那是新冠疫情之前,”他说。“每个人对全球健康都都抱有更美好的憧憬。”

“I believe the Chinese leadership really wanted to show both the world and their own domestic population that, ‘Hey, look, there’s a crisis in the world. We’re going in. We’re going to help them. We’ll be the heroes,’” Dr. Shang said.

“我相信,当时中国领导层真的很想向世界和本国人民表明:‘嘿,看啊,世界上发生了危机。我们要参与进去。我们要去帮助他们。我们要成为英雄,’”尚志达说。

Stephen Morrison, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said China could again deploy health workers. During that outbreak he visited a Chinese-run Ebola ward in Liberia and was impressed. “They were very well organized and very professional and very proud of what they were doing,” he said.

战略与国际问题研究中心高级副总裁史蒂芬·莫里森表示,中国可能会再次派遣卫生工作者。在那次疫情期间,他参观了利比里亚一个由中国运营的埃博拉病房,那里给他留下了深刻印象。“他们组织得井井有条,非常专业,对自己的工作非常自豪,”他说。

China’s booming biotech sector could play a role.

中国蓬勃发展的生物技术产业可能发挥重要作用。

Twelve years later, China is wealthier, with a greater presence in Africa. It has a strong relationship with the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whose headquarters it helped build. After Covid, China also has more experience responding to epidemics.

12年后,中国更加富裕,在非洲的存在感也更强了。中国与非洲疾病预防控制中心建立了密切的关系,并帮助该中心建设了总部。在新冠疫情之后,中国应对流行病的经验也更加丰富。

Its most significant contribution to fighting the current outbreak may come from its booming biotechnology industry. China is a leader in testing technologies, including adaptable machines that can screen for many diseases, and tests to identify a pathogen that can be used at a patient’s bedside, said Sonjelle Shilton, who works on access to diagnostics for the aid group Doctors Without Borders. That could eliminate the need to transport samples to central labs — in Congo’s case, across hundreds of miles and through an active conflict zone.

中国在抗击当前疫情方面最重要的贡献或将来自其蓬勃发展的生物技术产业。援助组织无国界医生负责诊断技术获取工作的桑杰尔·希尔顿表示,中国在检测技术方面处于领先地位,包括可以筛查多种疾病的自适应仪器,以及可在患者床边使用的病原体检测试剂。这可以避免将样本运往中央实验室的必要性——在刚果,将样本运往中央实验室意味着要跨越数百公里,并穿过活跃的冲突区。

Chinese companies have been developing diagnostics that can detect multiple viruses in the Ebola family, she said. Such a test might have sped up response to this outbreak, since health workers who first suspected Ebola had tests to detect only a different species of the virus.

她说,中国公司一直在开发可以检测埃博拉病毒家族中多种病毒的诊断技术。这样的检测本可能加快对这次疫情的响应速度,因为最初怀疑此次疫情为埃博拉病毒的卫生工作者,当时仅拥有针对该病毒另一亚型的检测试剂。

06int china ebola drc lab master1050今年4月,中国浙江省杭州市浙江友莱生物科技有限公司的车间内,技术人员正在生产基因检测所需的组件。

Scientists in China are also researching an mRNA vaccine that would provide protection across hemorrhagic fever viruses, such as Ebola — work that is in early stages, according to a peer-reviewed article in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

中国的科学家还在研究一种能针对包括埃博拉在内的多种出血热病毒提供保护的mRNA疫苗,根据《美国国家科学院院刊》上一篇经过同行评审的文章,这项工作目前处于早期阶段。

Those researchers are not yet part of the international scientific effort to respond to the outbreak that is being coordinated by the Center for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a group that works to speed vaccines to market.

这些研究人员尚未加入由流行病防范创新联盟协调的应对此次疫情的国际科学工作,该组织致力于加速疫苗上市进程。

The smaller role of the U.S. takes pressure off China.

美国作用的减弱减轻了中国的压力

During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, China’s strong response may have been driven in part by a desire to match American efforts, experts said.

专家表示,在2014年埃博拉疫情期间,中国的强有力反应部分可能是出于与美国抗衡的愿望。

Now, the United States’ withdrawal from the W.H.O. and its smaller role in the outbreak could be having the reverse effect.

现在,美国退出世卫组织、在此次疫情中作用减弱,这可能会产生相反的影响。

Beijing “might think the U.S. is no longer a leading global health player so the incentive to compete with the United States for soft power might be reduced,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

美国外交关系委员会全球卫生高级研究员黄严忠表示,北京“可能会认为美国不再是全球卫生的主要领导者,因此与美国竞争软实力的动机可能会减弱”。

The outbreak this time is more complex, in part because its epicenter is in northeastern Congo, where armed groups are active.

此次疫情更为复杂,部分原因是疫情中心位于刚果东北部,那里武装组织十分活跃。

“I don’t think the Chinese want to barge in and own this problem,” Dr. Morrison said.

莫里森说:“我不认为中国人想贸然进入,并且把这个问题揽在自己身上。”

Any decision to ramp up Chinese involvement would likely happen at a senior level in Beijing, given the lack of independent aid groups in China and that humanitarian assistance often involves the military or the state-controlled Red Cross Society.

鉴于中国缺乏独立的援助组织,且人道主义援助通常涉及军队或国家控制的红十字会,任何扩大中国参与程度的决定都可能由北京高层做出。

“If someone in Beijing makes the decision and says, ‘We are going in,’ I would expect things to move quickly,” said Marina Rudyak, an expert on China and foreign aid at Heidelberg University. “But the bureaucratic system today is less agile than it was in 2014 — decision-making has been more centralized.”

海德堡大学研究中国和对外援助的专家卢玛丽(Marina Rudyak)说:“如果北京有人做出决定说,‘我们要介入了’,我预计事情会进展得很快。但今天的官僚系统不如2014年灵活——决策变得更集中了。”

06int china ebola 05 mqft master10502024年,刚果民主共和国东部卡米图加通往一座矿场的一条道路。该国大部分关键矿产开采业务均由中国企业拥有或运营。

For Beijing, economic interests are paramount.

对于北京而言,经济利益至关重要。

Some experts say China’s foreign aid efforts are driven by a desire to protect its economic investments, and so far those interests have not been hurt.

一些专家表示,中国的对外援助努力是出于保护其经济投资的愿望,而到目前为止,这些利益并未受到损害。

Chinese companies own or run most of the critical mineral mining operations in Congo, largely in the south of the country, far from the outbreak. Workers said business was as usual.

中国公司拥有或运营着刚果的大部分关键矿产开采业务,这些业务主要分布在远离疫情的该国南部。工人们表示业务一切照常。

A Chinese construction worker in the city of Kolwezi in the south, who gave only his surname, Liu, said he had heard about the outbreak only this week.

南部城市科卢韦齐一名只愿透露姓氏的中国建筑工人刘某表示,他直到本周才听说疫情暴发。

He cannot afford a flight home, so has no choice but to stay. “Of course I’m worried,” he said. “Who isn’t afraid of dying?”

他无力承担回国的机票费用,所以别无选择,只能留下。“我当然很担心,”他说。“谁不怕死呢?”

Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior U.S. official who oversaw the Ebola response in West Africa, said the scale of China’s involvement in this outbreak might be determined by how much the mining industry is affected.

曾负责西非埃博拉疫情应对工作的前美国高级官员杰里米·科宁迪克表示,中国参与此次疫情的规模可能取决于采矿业受到的影响程度。

“When China gets involved in foreign aid type activities, it is not about benevolence and solving a problem, it is about protecting their economic interests,” said Mr. Konyndyk, who is now president of the aid agency Refugees International.

现任援助机构“国际难民组织”(Refugees International)主席的科宁迪克先生表示:“当中国参与这种对外援助活动时,这无关乎仁慈或解决问题,而是为了保护他们的经济利益。”

In that way, he said, the Chinese calculus is similar to that of the Trump administration’s “America First” global health policy.

他说,从这个角度来看,中国的考量与特朗普政府“美国优先”的全球卫生政策相似。


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艾莎, MURPHY ZHAO

4月,广州的一场博览会上参展的一家中国企业制造的机器人。本周,北京出台了旨在放缓中国企业出海的新规定。 Jade Gao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

China is erecting walls to prevent money, technology and companies from leaving the country.

中国正筑起一道道围墙,阻止资金、技术和企业流出国界。

This week, the State Council, China’s cabinet, announced new rules requiring national security screening for Chinese companies seeking to invest overseas. The move follows regulations introduced in April that allowed the authorities to intervene when foreign companies tried to relocate supply chains out of China.

本周,中国国务院出台新规,要求中国企业进行海外投资前必须接受国家安全审查。此前,中国在4月还出台了规定,允许监管部门在外国企业试图将供应链迁出中国时进行干预。

Taken together, the measures amount to a new blueprint for the economic fortress China is building around its technology and supply chains amid rising tensions with Europe and the United States.

综合来看,上述措施勾勒出中国在与欧美关系日趋紧张之际围绕其技术和供应链构建经济堡垒的新蓝图。

The rules are another sign that the economic principles of open markets and free trade, which have governed much of the world for decades and helped fuel China’s extraordinary rise, are giving way to a more fragmented era.

这些规定也表明,过去几十年来主导全球经济、帮助中国实现惊人崛起的开放市场和自由贸易原则正让位于一个更加碎片化的时代。

From Washington to Brussels, the world’s largest economies are choosing trade barriers over greater economic integration, driven in part by heightened concerns over China’s global dominance in raw materials, manufactured goods and technology, and a surge in Chinese products around the world.

从华盛顿到布鲁塞尔,全球各大经济体正在选择贸易壁垒,而非深化经济一体化,部分原因是出于对中国在原材料、制成品和技术领域全球主导地位,以及中国产品在全球激增的高度担忧。

“We’ve moved away from a world where laws made it easier to allow the flow of capital, people, technology and trade to go around,” said Ben Kostrzewa, a partner and trade expert at Hogan Lovells in Hong Kong.

香港霍金路伟律师行的合伙人、贸易专家本·科斯特泽瓦表示,“我们已经远离了法律致力于促进资本、人才、技术和贸易自由流动的世界。”

“The Chimerica economy envisioned 20 years ago turned out to be chimerical,” he said, referring to the once-popular portmanteau of China and America.

“20年前所憧憬的‘中美国(Chimerica)’经济体最终被证明不过是海市蜃楼,”他说。

Beijing has already offered a preview of what this new era could look like. It blocked Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Manus, an artificial intelligence company founded by Chinese engineers. It told Chinese refineries sanctioned by the United States not to comply. And it ordered a state-backed security equipment company not to cooperate with European Union investigators.

北京已经提前展示了这个新时代可能的样子。它阻止了Meta以20亿美元收购由中国工程师创办的人工智能公司Manus;要求受到美国制裁的中国炼油企业不要遵守美国制裁规定;并命令一家有国资背景的安检设备企业不要配合欧盟的调查人员。

With each action, Beijing edges closer to a confrontation with the United States and Europe.

每一次行动,都让北京与欧美更近一步走向对抗。

A Focus on National Security

聚焦国家安全

00BIZ CHINA RULES wvfq master1050宁波港。全球各大经济体正在选择贸易壁垒,而非深化经济一体化。

Chinese policymakers have been building a growing arsenal of export controls, countermeasures and trade penalties in response to tariffs and other restrictions imposed by foreign governments.

中国的政策制定者一直在不断扩充出口管制、反制措施和贸易处罚工具箱,以回应外国政府加征的关税和其他限制。

The new State Council rules extend that effort to the overseas activities of Chinese companies and outline how Beijing could retaliate against foreign companies and individuals when Chinese investments are restricted.

国务院的新规则把这种做法进一步延伸到中国企业的海外经营活动中,并明确了当中国投资受到限制时,北京如何对外国企业和个人实施报复。

The rules also give the authorities new powers to scrutinize Chinese companies seeking opportunities abroad, subjecting them to national security reviews that place investments into one of three categories: encouraged, restricted or prohibited.

新规还赋予监管部门新的权力,对赴海外寻找机会的中国企业进行国家安全审查,并将相关投资划分为三类:鼓励、限制或禁止。

Part of the motivation for this, lawyers say, is to keep money, talent and intellectual property in fields where China has a competitive edge from leaving the country.

律师表示,这样做的动机之一,是将中国具有竞争优势领域的资金、人才和知识产权留在国内。

Foreign businesses in China worry the measure could be interpreted broadly enough to include data from Chinese operations, which they must provide to international regulators as part of investigations or investment reviews.

在华外国企业担心,这些规定的解释范围可能足够宽泛,以至于涵盖其在华运营的数据,而这些数据是企业依规向国际监管机构提交调查材料或投资审查文件的必要内容。

China also clamped down on outbound investment a decade ago, targeting what it called “irrational” deals by corporate giants seeking trophy assets like the Waldorf Astoria. But those interventions were aimed at reducing financial risks at home and largely involved banking regulators scrutinizing company balance sheets.

十年前,中国也曾严厉限制对外投资,打击企业巨头收购纽约华尔道夫酒店等炫耀性资产的所谓“非理性”交易。但彼时的干预以化解国内金融风险为出发点,主要由银行监管机构对企业资产负债表进行审查。

The new framework is different. Its focus is national security, and the effort is far more coordinated.

此次新框架截然不同。其焦点是国家安全,且协调程度远超以往。

Green Light, Red Light

绿灯与红灯

What is new in the rules unveiled this week is the effort to slow the overseas expansion of Chinese companies.

本周出台的新规最引人关注之处在于试图放缓中国企业的海外扩张步伐。

The measures restrict the movement of certain talent in sectors deemed sensitive, though Beijing has not defined which sectors qualify. They also give officials broader authority to review the movement of capital, including the power to force investors to sell shares or halt investments if national security concerns arise.

这些措施限制敏感行业特定人才的流动,尽管北京尚未明确哪些行业属于敏感领域。与此同时,新规还赋予官员更广泛的资本审查权,包括在国家安全风险出现时强制投资者出售股份或停止投资。

The rules also lay the legal groundwork for regulators to bar foreign entities from investing or operating in China, including expelling them from the country, in retaliation for actions taken by their governments against Chinese investments.

此外,新规还为监管机构提供了法律依据,使其能够禁止外国实体在中国投资或经营,乃至将其驱逐出境,以报复其所在国家针对中国投资采取的措施。

To some experts, the most striking effect of these rules is that they could constrain the ambitions of Chinese companies when they are under intense pressure to find new markets and the country’s exports are reaching record levels.

在一些专家看来,这些规定最值得警惕的影响在于可能束缚中国企业开拓新市场的雄心——中国企业正面临寻找新市场的巨大压力,中国的出口规模也屡创新高。

“China has been encouraging companies to go overseas to set up production facilities, invest and bypass any constraints that may exist on manufacturing in China,” said Lester Ross, a longtime China expert and senior counsel at Wilmer Hale.

长期研究中国问题、现任威凯平和而德律师事务所高级律师的莱斯特·罗斯表示:“中国一直在鼓励企业走出去,到海外设立生产基地、进行投资,以规避在中国制造可能遇到的任何限制。”

Yet these new rules could complicate that, he added.

然而,他补充道,这些新规可能使这一战略趋于复杂。

Chinese officials are calling the new rules a “milestone” for outbound investment. But for many investors, the vague definition of what constitutes a national security concern has led to significant uncertainty.

中国官员将新规称为对外投资的“里程碑”。但对许多投资者而言,何为国家安全关切的定义模糊不清,这已带来了巨大的不确定性。

Déjà Vu?

似曾相识?

00BIZ CHINA RULES bqzf jumbo
包头的一座纪念碑,包头是中国稀土产业的中心。在与其他国家政府关系日趋紧张之际,中国正围绕其技术与供应链筑起经济堡垒。 Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

The idea that companies or individuals need approval to invest overseas may seem unusual. But China has long restricted money flowing out of the country and currently limits individuals to moving $50,000 abroad each year. That tool has become increasingly important as economic growth has slowed.

企业或个人对外投资须事先获得批准这个概念可能听起来不同寻常。但中国长期以来对资金出境设有管制,目前每人每年向境外转移资金的上限为5万美元。随着经济增速放缓,这一工具的重要性与日俱增。

Nor is China the first country to screen outbound investment. The Biden administration in 2024 imposed restrictions on U.S. financing of Chinese semiconductor, quantum computing and artificial intelligence sectors.

中国也不是第一个审查对外投资的国家。2024年,拜登政府就限制了美国资金流向中国的半导体、量子计算和人工智能行业。

The European Union has also urged its member states to review investments in those same sensitive sectors.

欧盟也敦促其成员国对同样这些敏感领域的投资进行审查。

But unlike the United States and Europe, Beijing has defined national security far more broadly. And its rules are correspondingly more expansive.

不过,与美国和欧洲相比,北京对“国家安全”的定义要宽泛得多,因此相关规定覆盖的范围也更广。

For lawyers and trade advisers, the flurry of restrictions from multiple governments signals the end of an era.

对律师和贸易顾问而言,多国政府密集出台限制措施,标志着一个时代的落幕。

The Chinese government cited “profound changes unseen in a century” as justification for the new State Council rules. The argument resonated with Zhou Yong, a lawyer with Junhe, a Chinese law firm.

中国政府援引“百年未有之大变局”作为出台国务院新规的理由。这一说法引起了中国律师事务所君合的律师周勇的共鸣。

“From a legal standpoint, the restructuring of international business rules has been brought about by great power competition and technological progress,” Mr. Zhou said.

“从法律视角来看,大国竞争与技术进步共同推动了国际商业规则的重构,”周勇表示。

“China,” he added, “hopes to have some tools of its own.”

他补充道:“而中国,也希望拥有属于自己的工具。”

DAVID PIERSON, CHOE SANG-HUN

去年9月,习近平与金正恩在北京会面。分析人士表示,随着平壤向俄罗斯靠拢,中国可能急于向朝鲜宣示自身的影响力。 Florence Lo/Reuters

The last time China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, traveled to North Korea, that country’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, was reeling from sanctions and failed nuclear talks with the United States.

上一次中国最高领导人习近平访问朝鲜时,朝鲜的独裁者金正恩正深陷制裁困境,与美国的核谈判也以失败告终。

Now, nearly seven years later, as Mr. Xi returns to North Korea on Monday, he will meet with a leader who is newly emboldened by an alliance with Russia that has helped his economy break out of isolation.

时隔近七年,当习近平于周一再次访问朝鲜时,他将面对的是一位底气大增的领导人——得益于与俄罗斯结盟,朝鲜经济已成功摆脱了孤立状态。

Mr. Xi is expected to use the two-day summit with Mr. Kim to project a united front between allies against the West. But analysts say China is likely also keen to assert its influence over a neighbor that has leaned toward Russia. Mr. Kim, for his part, wants to be treated less like a junior partner to China and will likely use his new closeness to Russia to press Beijing for economic concessions.

预计习近平将借与金正恩为期两天的峰会展示中朝作为盟友共同对抗西方的统一阵线。但分析人士指出,中国同样希望借此重申对这个越来越向俄罗斯靠拢的邻国的影响力。金正恩方面则希望不再被视为中国的小伙伴,并可能利用与俄罗斯日益紧密的关系向北京争取经济让步。

If North Korea is able to successfully balance its two giant neighbors, Mr. Kim might feel even less constrained about advancing his nuclear weapons program. That could destabilize a region where U.S. allies are already worried about China’s military buildup and Washington’s ability to honor its defense agreements as it depletes resources fighting a war with Iran.

若朝鲜能够成功在两大邻国之间维持平衡,金正恩推进核武计划时或许会更加有恃无恐。这将可能扰动本已紧张的地区局势——美国的地区盟友已对中国的军事扩张忧心忡忡,也对华盛顿在深陷伊朗战事、资源消耗日重之际兑现防务承诺的能力深存疑虑。

Here’s what to know about the meeting.

以下是关于此次会晤需要了解的要点。

Xi wants to signal unity, but will also have to court Kim.

习近平意在彰显团结,但也不得不拉拢金正恩。

Mr. Xi will likely use his rare access to Mr. Kim to remind the world that North Korea depends on China and that Beijing cannot be sidelined.

习近平可能会利用这次罕见的会面机会向世界重申:朝鲜仍然依赖中国,北京绝不可能被边缘化。

The messaging would align with efforts by Mr. Xi to project China as a superpower equal to the United States. China is keen to show that while Washington sows chaos — whether through its war with Iran or by imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike — Beijing is a stabilizing force in the world. This point was reinforced in Mr. Xi’s recent summits with President Trump, then President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Beijing.

这契合了习近平将中国塑造为与美国平起平坐的超级大国的努力。北京急于向外界证明:当华盛顿四处播撒混乱——无论是通过对伊朗开战,还是对盟友和对手一律加征关税——北京才是世界的稳定力量。习近平近期在北京与特朗普总统和俄罗斯总统普京先后举行峰会进一步强化了这一点。

“Xi is attempting to demonstrate that he is on better terms with members of his authoritarian clique than President Trump is with his democratic partners,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and the chairman of the Asia Group.

“习近平试图表明,他与威权阵营成员之间的关系比特朗普总统与其民主伙伴之间的关系更为融洽,”曾任拜登政府的副国务卿、现任亚洲集团董事长的库尔特·坎贝尔表示。

But Mr. Xi’s decision to make a rare trip abroad also underscores his need to court Mr. Kim.

但习近平此次罕见出访也反映出,他同样需要拉拢金正恩。

Pyongyang has eased its dependence on Beijing by reviving a Cold War-era mutual defense pledge with Moscow in 2024. Russia has provided North Korea with badly needed oil, food and weapons technology in exchange for North Korean troops and munitions for its war in Ukraine. That has created a headache for China, which wants to maintain its influence over North Korea to rein in its volatile behavior and ensure stability on its borders.

2024年,平壤与莫斯科重启冷战时期的共同防御承诺,这减轻了它对北京的依赖。俄罗斯以朝鲜急需的石油、粮食和武器技术作为回报,换取朝鲜为乌克兰战争输送军队和弹药。这让中国颇为头疼,它希望继续对朝鲜保持影响力,以约束其难以捉摸的行为,确保边境地区的稳定。

00int china northkorea 02 lzht master1050今年5月,莫斯科一场阅兵式上的朝鲜军人。2024年,平壤与莫斯科重启冷战时期的共同防御承诺。

“There is no question that the Chinese are worried about how close the North Korean-Russian relationship is getting,” said John Delury, a historian of Northeast Asia who is a senior fellow in Seoul for the Asia Society. “This trip helps head that off a bit and it’s a way for Xi to insert himself back into the equation.”

“毫无疑问,中国方面对朝俄关系日益紧密感到担忧,”亚洲协会首尔高级研究员约翰·德卢里表示,“这次访问有助于在一定程度上缓解这种趋势,也是习近平重新参与进来的一种方式。”

Kim is on a winning streak.

金正恩正处于连胜势头。

Things had looked bleak for Mr. Kim just a few years ago. First, Mr. Trump walked away from nuclear talks with him in 2019, dashing hopes that the United States would lift sanctions. The following year, Mr. Kim drove his country into isolation in response to Covid-19 by closing its borders. That froze trade with China, North Korea’s main source of goods and foreign currency.

就在几年前,金正恩的处境还一度十分艰难。首先是2019年,特朗普退出核谈判,令制裁解除的希望化为泡影。次年,为应对新冠疫情,他关闭国境,使朝鲜进一步陷入孤立。这直接冻结了朝鲜与中国的贸易,中国是朝鲜获取商品和外汇的主要来源。

Mr. Kim’s fortunes changed, not only as the pandemic eased, but after he seized on Russia’s difficulties in the war in Ukraine to strengthen ties with Moscow and recalibrate North Korea’s foreign policy, which had tilted heavily toward China. He supplied Moscow with weapons and troops, while Russia reciprocated by injecting billions of dollars’ worth of oil, food, weapons technology and other aid into North Korea.

但金正恩的命运不仅随着疫情缓解迎来转机,更因他利用了俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的困境而改变。他强化了与莫斯科的关系,重新调整了此前严重偏向中国的外交政策。他向莫斯科提供武器和军队,俄罗斯则回报以数十亿美元的石油、粮食、武器技术及其他援助。

Mr. Xi may seek to remind Mr. Kim that China remains North Korea’s main benefactor. In March, China restored train services and flights between Beijing and Pyongyang.

习近平可能会提醒金正恩,中国仍然是朝鲜的主要援助国。今年3月,中国恢复了北京与平壤之间的列车服务和航班。

00int china northkorea 03 lzht master1050平壤街景,摄于3月。俄罗斯向朝鲜输送了价值数十亿美元的石油、粮食、武器及其他援助,为其提供了巨大帮助。

Still, Mr. Kim wants more. Tourism is one of the few sectors not restricted by U.N. sanctions, and the North Korean leader has invested in seafront resorts and mountain hot springs with the aim of attracting Chinese visitors.

尽管如此,金正恩想要的还有更多。旅游业是朝鲜少数未受联合国制裁限制的行业之一,这位领导人已投资建设了海滨度假村和山间温泉,目的是吸引中国游客。

“North Korea is no longer a pathetic nation clinging to a single patron,” said Lee Byong-chul, an analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “It has found a new strategic wing in Russia, in addition to China, which has long been its lifeline.”

“朝鲜不再是那个只能依赖单一庇护者的可怜国家,”首尔远东研究所分析师李炳哲(音)表示。“除了长期以来作为其生命线的中国之外,它还在俄罗斯找到了新的战略羽翼。”

Trump and nuclear weapons loom over the summit.

特朗普与核武器问题给峰会蒙上阴影

One question hanging over the summit is what, if any, pressure Mr. Xi will put on Mr. Kim to engage with the United States. Since returning to the White House, the American president has repeatedly signaled his desire for another summit with Mr. Kim.

萦绕在峰会上空的一个问题是,习近平是否会对金正恩施加压力,如果会的话,会施加什么样的压力,以促使朝鲜与美国接触。自从重返白宫以来,特朗普已多次发出信号,表示希望与金正恩再次举行峰会。

It is possible that Mr. Trump has asked Mr. Xi to deliver a message while he is in Pyongyang. Mr. Kim, however, has remained steadfast, insisting he will reject any dialogue with Washington that places his country’s nuclear program on the negotiating table.

特朗普可能已经要求习近平在平壤期间代为传递信息。然而,金正恩依然立场坚定,坚称只要将朝鲜的核计划摆上谈判桌,他就拒绝与华盛顿进行任何对话。

Mr. Kim has long treated that program as a way to reduce his reliance on Moscow and Beijing for security, and as a shield against a U.S. invasion. That view has been hardened by the Trump administration’s rationale that it attacked Iran partly to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

长期以来,金正恩一直将核计划视为减少对莫斯科和北京安全依赖的手段,以及抵御美国入侵的盾牌。特朗普政府宣称,美国袭击伊朗的部分原因是为了防止伊朗发展核武器,这一理由进一步强化了金正恩的上述立场。

Mr. Kim’s defiance highlights a major shift in how the world’s biggest powers handle North Korea.

金正恩的抗拒姿态凸显了世界大国在处理朝鲜问题上的重大转变。

00int china northkorea 04 lzht master1050根据朝鲜官方媒体发布的一张照片,金正恩周三参观了一座生产核弹燃料的新设施。金正恩将核计划视为抵御美国入侵的盾牌。

For years, Beijing and Moscow shared Washington’s goal of rolling back North Korea’s nuclear program, voting with the United States when the U.N. Security Council imposed sweeping sanctions on Pyongyang in 2016 and 2017.

多年来,北京和莫斯科与华盛顿有着遏制朝鲜核计划这一共同目标。在2016年和2017年联合国安理会对平壤实施全面制裁时,两国都与美国一道投了赞成票。

But two years ago, Mr. Putin appeared to provide tacit approval of the nuclear weapons program when he signed the defense pact and offered Russia’s military technical assistance.

但两年前,普京在与朝鲜签署防务协议并向其提供俄罗斯军事技术援助,似乎对这一核武器计划给予了默许

“Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen its own defense capability,” the Russian leader said.

“平壤有权采取合理措施来加强自身国防能力,”这位俄罗斯领导人说。

North Korea is estimated to already possess 50 warheads, but still seeks advanced technology to build intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering those weapons.

据估计,朝鲜已经拥有50枚核弹头,但仍在寻求先进技术,研制能够运载这些武器的洲际弹道导弹。

China officially opposes a nuclear North Korean state, concerned it would drive U.S. allies like South Korea to seek their own nuclear arsenals. But its stance has recently evolved to reflect a desire for better relations with Pyongyang and a growing view that a nuclear-armed North Korea provides leverage over Washington and Seoul, analysts said.

分析人士表示,中国官方反对朝鲜成为核国家,担心这会促使韩国等美国盟友寻求拥有自己的核武库。但近来中国的立场有所演变,反映出渴望改善与平壤的关系。还有一种日益流行的观点认为,一个拥有核武器的朝鲜能对华盛顿和首尔形成制衡。

When Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim met in Beijing last September, official statements from both governments omitted any mention of removing nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula, which had been standard boilerplate for years.

去年9月习近平和金正恩在北京会晤时,两国政府的官方声明中均未提及朝鲜半岛无核化的问题,而这在过去多年里一直是标准的官方措辞。

Beijing may see little geopolitical value in helping Mr. Trump manage the North Korean nuclear threat, and may also consider it impossible to force North Korea to give up its nuclear program without damaging ties.

北京可能认为,帮助特朗普管控朝鲜核威胁几乎没有什么地缘政治价值,同时可能还认为,在不损害双边关系的情况下迫使朝鲜放弃核计划是不可能的。

Last month, the White House announced that both Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi “confirmed their shared goal to denuclearize North Korea.” But the Chinese government offered a more muted readout, stating only that they had “exchanged views” on the Korean Peninsula.

上个月,白宫宣布特朗普和习近平“确认了实现朝鲜无核化的共同目标”。但中国政府提供的通报更为低调,仅表示双方就朝鲜半岛问题“交换了意见”。


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CARL ZIMMER

研究人员修改了影响血液中低密度脂蛋白胆固醇和血红蛋白水平的基因。 Claude Cortier/Science Source

Scientists at Columbia University have edited the DNA of early human embryos with unprecedented accuracy, an achievement that could open the way to babies engineered with particular characteristics.

哥伦比亚大学科学家以前所未有的精确度编辑了早期人类胚胎的DNA,这一成果可能为培育具有特定特征的“定制婴儿”打开大门。

The prospect has fueled controversy for years. On the one hand, the technology might one day enable parents to safely repair disease-causing mutations in embryos. But it might also be used to select desired traits — a practice that some ethicists have argued is nothing short of eugenics.

这一前景多年来一直存有争议。一方面,该技术未来可能让父母安全修复胚胎中导致疾病的突变;但另一方面,它也可能被用于选择理想特征,一些伦理学家认为这种做法无异于优生学。

Dieter Egli, a geneticist at Columbia University who led the research, called for a public conversation about the pros and cons of altering embryonic DNA. “As a scientist, you can provide the data for discussion, but then essentially there you stop and let others take over,” he said.

领导这项研究的哥伦比亚大学遗传学家迪特尔·埃利呼吁就修改胚胎DNA的利弊展开公众讨论。“作为科学家,我可以提供讨论所需的数据,但之后基本上就该停下来,让其他人接手,”他说。

With a newer technology called base editing, Dr. Egli and his colleagues were able to meticulously replace individual genetic letters in sequences of DNA without causing the damage often observed with an earlier form of gene editing, CRISPR.

埃利及其同事使用一种被称为碱基编辑的新技术对DNA序列中的单个遗传字母进行精确替换,不会造成早期基因编辑技术CRISPR常有的那种损伤。

Dr. Egli cautioned that the research left unanswered many questions about harmful side effects. “We’re not saying this is going to be used tomorrow in the clinics,” he said.

埃利警告称,该研究仍有很多关于有害副作用的问题尚未解答。“我们并不是说这项技术明天就能用于临床,”他说。

Dr. Egli and his colleagues posted their study online. The research is under review for publication in a scientific journal.

埃利及其同事已将研究论文发布在网上。该研究目前正在接受科学期刊的同行评审。

The possibility of editing the DNA of human embryos became a matter of serious debate more than a decade ago, after the invention of CRISPR.

编辑人类胚胎DNA的可能性在CRISPR技术发明十多年前就已成为严肃辩论的话题。

In 2012, scientists discovered how to create customized molecules that could snip out a targeted segment of DNA. CRISPR quickly became a standard tool for scientists — a cheap, easy way to discover how genes function by tweaking the genome.

2012年,科学家发现可以制造定制分子来切除DNA中特定的片段。CRISPR迅速成为科学家的标准工具——一种廉价、简便的通过修改基因组来研究基因功能的方法。

A number of medical companies sprang up, seeking to use the technology to treat hereditary diseases. In 2023, the Food and Drug Administration approved a CRISPR-based treatment for sickle cell anemia.

多家医疗公司应运而生,试图利用该技术治疗遗传性疾病。2023年,美国食品和药物管理局批准了一种基于CRISPR的疗法,用于治疗镰状细胞贫血。

But scientists knew it was not perfect. In some cells, CRISPR molecules failed to find their targets in DNA, or sometimes snipped out the wrong genetic bits.

但科学家们知道它并不完美。在某些细胞中,CRISPR分子无法找到目标DNA,有时还会切错遗传片段。

Those concerns did not stop a Chinese scientist, He Jiankui, from using CRISPR to alter the DNA of human embryos in 2018.

这些担忧并未阻止中国科学家贺建奎在2018年使用CRISPR修改人类胚胎DNA。

Dr. He later said his goal was to give children a genetic resistance to H.I.V. infection. But experts condemned his work as reckless, and Chinese authorities imprisoned him for three years.

贺建奎后来表示,他的目标是让儿童获得对HIV感染的遗传抵抗力。但专家谴责他的工作过于鲁莽,中国当局判处他三年监禁。

Dr. He’s experiment led to three “healthy, beautiful babies,” he claimed in a January interview with The New York Times. But the status of the children has never been independently evaluated.

贺建奎声称他的实验诞生了三个“健康、漂亮的婴儿”,他在今年1月接受《纽约时报》采访时如此表示。但这些儿童的状况从未经过独立评估。

05sci embryos 03 zqwj jumbo
贺建奎去年秋天在北京的家中。此前,他因制造了基因编辑婴儿入狱服刑三年。 Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

In 2020, Dr. Egli and his colleagues carried out an experiment to see how CRISPR behaves in human embryos.

2020年,埃利及其同事进行了一项实验,观察CRISPR在人类胚胎中的表现。

They obtained donated sperm from men with a mutation in a gene called EYS causing hereditary blindness. The researchers used the sperm to fertilize healthy eggs, producing human embryos with one working copy of EYS and one defective copy. The researchers used CRISPR to cut out the mutant region of EYS.

他们从携带EYS基因突变(会导致遗传性失明)的男性那里获得捐赠精子,用这些精子使健康卵子受精,产生具有一个正常EYS拷贝和一个缺陷拷贝的人类胚胎。研究人员使用CRISPR切除EYS的突变区域。

Previous studies suggested that the embryo might repair the gene by using the healthy version as a guide. Only some embryos did so, ending up with two working copies of EYS.

先前研究表明,胚胎可能会以健康版本为模板修复该基因。但只有部分胚胎成功,最终拥有两个正常EYS拷贝。

But the repair failed in about half of them. Some chopped off long stretches of DNA. Some destroyed the entire chromosome on which the EYS gene is located.

但约一半胚胎修复失败。有些切除了大段DNA,有些则破坏了EYS基因所在的整个染色体。

“It had absolutely catastrophic consequences,” Dr. Egli said.

“后果绝对是灾难性的,”埃利说。

Many scientists and bioethicists saw these results as further evidence that editing human embryos was far too risky to even consider — at least, for the time being.

许多科学家和生物伦理学家认为,这些结果进一步证明编辑人类胚胎风险极高,至少在目前不值得考虑。

But in 2016, David Liu, a geneticist at Harvard University, and colleagues combined one of the CRISPR molecules with other compounds to create base editing, a new method for editing genes. Rather than chop out a segment of DNA, base editors made a tiny nick in one strand. They could then guide the cell to fix the mutation.

但在2016年,哈佛大学遗传学家刘如谦(David Liu)及其同事将CRISPR分子与其他化合物结合,创造了碱基编辑技术。这是一种新的基因编辑方法。它不再切除DNA片段,而是在其中一条链上制造一个微小的切口,然后引导细胞修复突变。

Base editing has proved to be often superior to earlier CRISPR methods. Last year, a baby was cured of a potentially lethal genetic disorder after receiving a customized set of base editing molecules.

碱基编辑已被证明往往优于早期的CRISPR方法。去年,在接受定制碱基编辑分子治疗后,一名患有可能致命的遗传疾病的婴儿被治愈

Dr. Egli decided to try it on human embryos.

埃利决定在人类胚胎上尝试这项技术。

For the new experiments, he and his colleagues set out to alter two genes. One, called PCSK9, can carry mutations that raise levels of LDL in the blood — and the risk of heart disease. The other gene, HBG, directs hemoglobin production in fetuses.

在这项新实验中,他和同事试图修改两个基因。一个是PCSK9基因,其突变会导致血液中LDL(低密度脂蛋白)水平升高,从而增加心脏病风险。另一个是HBG基因,负责胎儿期血红蛋白的产生。

Dr. Egli and his colleagues delivered their base editors into fertilized eggs and into two-cell embryos donated by parents. The researchers didn’t find any of the extensive damage associated with CRISPR.

埃利及其同事将碱基编辑器导入受精卵和父母捐赠的双细胞期胚胎。研究人员没有发现与CRISPR相关的大范围损伤。

05sci embryos 02 jumbo
哥伦比亚大学遗传学家迪特尔·埃利是该研究负责人。 Roy Rochlin/Getty Images

Instead, the researchers were able to successfully change both the PCSK9 and HBG genes. In some experiments, they simultaneously changed both genes in the same embryo.

相反,研究人员成功修改了PCSK9和HBG两个基因。在部分实验中,他们在同一个胚胎中同时修改了两个基因。

But the edits were still not perfect. Sometimes the base editing molecules failed to find their target DNA. As a result, some cells in the embryos retained the original versions of the genes, while others were altered.

但编辑仍不完美。有时碱基编辑分子无法找到目标DNA,导致胚胎中部分细胞保留原始基因版本,部分细胞被修改。

Those embryos became genetic mixtures, so-called mosaics. Having cells with different versions of the same gene could have led to medical problems had the embryos developed into babies.

这些胚胎成为基因混合体,即所谓的“镶嵌”(mosaics)。如果胚胎发育成婴儿,不同细胞拥有不同基因版本可能导致医疗问题。

Despite those failures, the new results were strong enough that Dr. Paula Amato, a fertility expert at Oregon Health & Science University who was not involved in the study, thought the method was “promising.”

尽管存在这些失败,未参与该研究的俄勒冈健康与科学大学生育专家葆拉·阿马托博士仍认为该方法“很有前景”。

Still, she said it would be important to examine the final results when they’re published in a journal.

不过她表示,待论文正式发表后,仔细审阅最终结果非常重要。

Ana Iltis, a bioethicist at Wake Forest University, worried that assessing the safety of base-edited embryos will require far more scrutiny than simply looking for damaged chromosomes.

维克森林大学生物伦理学家安娜·伊尔蒂斯认为,要评估碱基编辑胚胎的安全性,单纯检查染色体损伤是远远不够的。

“It is possible that some of the potentially harmful effects would not be evident until after birth,” she warned.

“有些潜在有害影响可能要到出生后才会显现,”她警告说。

Nathan Treff, the chief clinical officer of Nucleus Genomics and a co-author of the new study, said that the ability to fix disease-causing mutations in embryos could be a boon to those using I.V.F., allowing them to implant embryos that they otherwise would have discarded.

Nucleus Genomics首席临床官、新研究合著者内森·特雷夫博士表示,能够修复胚胎中致病突变的技术对接受体外受精的人来说可能是一大福音,让他们能够植入原本会被丢弃的胚胎。

“There’s still work to do before getting to that point, but this research gets us closer,” Dr. Treff said.

“要达到那个阶段还有很多工作要做,但这项研究让我们离目标更近了,”特雷夫说。

Nucleus Genomics will support the next stage of Dr. Egli’s research. (The federal government does not fund studies on human embryos for research purposes.)

Nucleus Genomics将支持埃利研究的下一阶段。(联邦政府不资助以研究为目的人类胚胎研究。)

Some upcoming studies will look for ways to avoid mosaic embryos. The researchers will also test base editing on embryos that contain about 100 cells. Fertility clinics typically freeze and test embryos at that stage.

即将进行的研究将寻找避免镶嵌胚胎的方法。研究人员还将在包含约100个细胞的胚胎上测试碱基编辑。生育诊所通常会在这个阶段冷冻和检测胚胎。

Nucleus Genomics, founded in 2021, screens I.V.F. embryos for thousands of genetic disorders. The company also makes predictions about an embryo’s risks for conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. And it looks at genes linked to traits such as height and intelligence.

成立于2021年的Nucleus Genomics可筛查IVF胚胎数千种遗传疾病。该公司还会预测胚胎患心脏病、糖尿病等疾病的风险,并查看与身高、智力等特征相关的基因。

05sci embryos 04 kwcg jumbo
一家试管婴儿诊所内,装有捐赠精子的皮氏培养皿。科学家们表示,如果能修复胚胎中致病的突变,就能有更多胚胎得以植入,而不是被废弃。 Jackie Molloy for The New York Times

In November, the firm stirred controversy when it plastered ads on New York City subways telling commuters to “have your best baby.” Geneticists have criticized the predictions Nucleus Genomics makes for traits, such as IQ, as having low accuracy.

去年11月,该公司在纽约地铁投放广告,告诉通勤者“生出你最好的宝宝”,引发争议。遗传学家批评Nucleus Genomics对智商等特征的预测准确性较低

And critics have accused the company of promoting a biotech spin on eugenics — a charge the company rejects.

批评者指责该公司在推广一种生物技术版的优生学——公司对此予以否认

“We see ourselves as a natural pathway for eventually bringing technologies like this into clinical care as part of a broader genetics platform — a full ‘Genetic Optimization’ stack,” Kaitlyn Gallacher, head of communications at Nucleus Genomics, wrote in an email.

Nucleus Genomics传播主管凯特琳·加拉赫在邮件中写道:“我们将自己视为最终将此类技术引入临床护理的自然途径,这是一个更广泛的遗传学平台——完整的‘遗传优化’体系。”

Fyodor Urnov, a geneticist at the University of California, Berkeley, who was not involved in the study, said the results were in line with earlier studies of base editing in living cells.

未参与该研究的加州大学伯克利分校遗传学家费奥多尔·乌尔诺夫表示,这些结果与此前在活细胞中进行碱基编辑的研究一致。

But the prospect of using the method on embryos was both novel and risky, Dr. Urnov said. In regular I.V.F., embryos are screened for genetic abnormalities. That made much more sense, he argued, than resorting to a new technique with so many open questions.

但他认为,将该方法用于胚胎的可能性具有新意,但也充满风险。他主张,在常规IVF中筛查胚胎遗传异常的做法更合理,而不是采用一项仍有许多未知风险的新技术。

“Do we do what we’ve done safely and effectively 15 million times since 1978, or do we instead try something that we can never truly de-risk, and where the risks are clear?” he asked.

“我们是继续做自1978年以来已经安全有效地做了1500万次的事,还是去尝试一种我们永远无法完全排除风险、且风险已然清晰的技术?”他问道。

Dr. Urnov speculated that the new method, once perfected, would appeal to people who don’t merely want to address inherited diseases, but to enhance traits by engineering embryos.

乌尔诺夫推测,一旦这项新技术完善,它将吸引那些不仅想解决遗传疾病,还想通过胚胎改造来提升特征的人。

“What they are really doing is providing the ‘baby improvers’ with a how-to manual for forays beyond the ethical pale,” Dr. Urnov wrote in an email.

“他们真正做的是为‘婴儿改进者’提供一本越过伦理底线的教程,”乌尔诺夫在邮件中写道。

Whether anyone could actually alter babies in this way is not yet settled, though. Many human traits are influenced by hundreds, or thousands, of genes.

不过,目前尚不确定是否真的有人能以这种方式改变婴儿。因为许多人类特征受数百甚至数千个基因影响。

Dr. Egli noted that the more genes in a single embryo that scientists try to rewrite, the higher the risk that they will fail.

埃利指出,科学家在单个胚胎中试图修改的基因越多,失败风险就越高。

“I think you can probably combine three or four, maybe even five, but I think there’s a limit,” he said. “Where that limit is remains to be determined.”

“我认为大概可以组合三到四个,也许五个,但肯定存在极限,”他说。“这个极限在哪里,还有待确定。”

FRANCES ROBLES

哈瓦那的大教堂酒店是西班牙美利亚酒店集团在古巴运营的15家酒店之一。 Yamil Lage/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The Trump administration’s campaign to force Cuba’s economic unraveling achieved key gains this week, when three international hotel chains and a bank that processes Visa and Mastercard transactions withdrew business from the communist nation to avoid violating new U.S. regulations.

特朗普政府迫使古巴经济崩溃的行动本周取得了关键进展:为了避免违反美国新出台的规定,三家国际酒店集团以及一家处理维萨卡和万事达卡交易的银行相继撤出古巴。

Foreign businesses have until Friday to pull out of any venture in Cuba run by the Cuban military conglomerate that controls about half the nation’s economy. On Thursday, the U.S. government announced that it was imposing sanctions on another swath of Cuban officials and entities, including the armed forces.

外国企业必须在周五之前撤出与古巴军事企业集团合作的所有项目,该集团控制着古巴约一半的经济。周四,美国政府宣布对另一批古巴官员和实体实施制裁,其中包括武装部队。

Business leaders whose companies stay in Cuba risk losing their visa to travel to the United States and having their assets frozen. The companies themselves could also face sanctions, such as losing access to American banks.

如果企业继续留在古巴,其高管面临失去赴美旅行签证以及资产冻结的风险,企业本身也可能面临制裁,例如失去进入美国银行系统的渠道。

The increasing exodus of businesses from Cuba will lead to increased unemployment and fewer financial resources for Cuba’s government, aggravating an increasingly untenable economic crisis.

越来越多的企业撤离古巴将导致失业率上升、古巴政府的财政资源减少,从而加剧日益严峻的经济危机。

While the United States has long prohibited most American companies from trading with Cuba, these new regulations, called “secondary sanctions,” are a major escalation, because they target foreign companies and financial institutions.

长期以来,美国已禁止本国企业与古巴开展大多数贸易,但这些被称为“次级制裁”的新措施代表着重大升级,因为其打击对象已经扩展到外国企业和金融机构。

Cuba’s Central Bank announced Wednesday that a bank that processes Visa and Mastercard transactions had withdrawn to comply with a recent executive order from the White House that threatened sanctions against foreign companies doing business in Cuba.

古巴中央银行周三宣布,一家处理维萨卡和万事达卡交易的银行已撤出,以遵守白宫最近的一项行政命令,该命令威胁制裁在古巴开展业务的外国公司。

05int cuba sanctions02 photo vzkc master1050周三,人们在哈瓦那一家银行外排队。

The Cuban government, which did not name the bank, called the decision part of President Trump’s “strategy to strangle the Cuban people.”

古巴政府没有透露该银行名称,但称这一决定是特朗普总统“扼杀古巴人民战略”的一部分。

The Spanish hotel operator Iberostar said it would end its partnership to run 12 hotels for Gaviota, Cuba’s tourism company, which is part of the Business Administration Group, a military conglomerate known by its Spanish acronym, GAESA.

西班牙酒店运营商Iberostar表示,将终止为古巴旅游公司Gaviota运营12家酒店的合作关系。Gaviota隶属于古巴军方商业集团——企业管理集团(GAESA)。

Another Spanish firm, Meliá, said it would withdraw from its partnership running 15 Cuban hotels. Blue Diamond, a Canadian company that ran dozens of hotels in Cuba, also announced that it was pulling out.

另一家西班牙企业美利亚酒店集团也宣布,将退出与古巴方面合作运营的15家酒店。在古巴经营数十家酒店的加拿大公司蓝钻也宣布撤出。

Citing an announcement from the company, news reports said the Indonesian chain Archipelago International had also closed shop. The website for the company’s Aston Hotels in Cuba showed they were “no longer available for accommodation.”

根据媒体援引公司声明称,印尼连锁酒店集团——群岛国际也已停止在古巴的业务。该公司旗下Aston Hotels在古巴的网站显示,其酒店“已不再提供住宿服务”。

The proposed U.S. sanctions are part of a series of stringent measures by the Trump administration designed to cripple Cuba’s economy and force economic and political change.

特朗普政府提出的制裁措施是旨在削弱古巴经济、迫使古巴进行经济和政治变革的一系列严厉措施的一部分。

Mr. Trump on Thursday told reporters in Washington that Cuba had “sort of collapsed.”

特朗普周四在华盛顿对记者表示,古巴“某种程度上已经崩溃了”。

Repeating a statement he had made in the past, he said he would “handle” Cuba as soon as his administration moves on from the conflict with Iran. “As soon as that’s done, on our way back, we’ll just make a little brief stop,” the president said without providing specific details.

他重复了过去的说法,称一旦他的政府处理完与伊朗的冲突,就会“解决”古巴问题。总统说:“等那边的事情了结了,我们在回程中顺便稍作停留即可。”但他没有透露具体细节。

Mr. Trump’s tightening vise on Cuba, including an effective oil blockade, is worsening a humanitarian crisis, leaving millions of people enduring extended power outages and struggling to find food and gasoline.

包括事实上的石油禁运,特朗普不断收紧对古巴的经济封锁正在加剧当地的人道主义危机。数百万古巴人正遭受长时间停电之苦,并面临食品和汽油短缺。

The U.S. State Department said on Thursday that it was adding five more Cuban officials and five entities to a list of sanctioned people and companies, including President Miguel Díaz-Canel and his family.

美国国务院周四表示,将把五名古巴官员和五个实体加入到个人和企业制裁名单里,其中包括古巴古巴国家主席米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔及其家人。

Vast neighborhood groups organized by the government, called the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution and known for spying on local residents, were also targeted, as was Cuba’s gold mining venture.

由政府组织、以监控居民著称的大规模基层组织保卫革命委员会和古巴的黄金开采企业也在制裁名单之中。

“The entities and individuals designated today direct or fund the regime and its efforts to mobilize its radical revolutionary movements in the United States and around the world,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement.

美国国务卿鲁比奥在声明中表示:“今天被列入制裁名单的机构和个人,为该政权及其在美国和世界各地推动激进革命运动的努力提供领导或资金支持。”

Two major shipping companies, one German and the other French, had already announced plans to cease operations in Cuba.

两家大型航运公司——一家德国企业和一家法国企业——此前也已宣布停止在古巴的业务运营。

The United Nations’ World Food Program was forced to put off plans to purchase nearly 3,000 tons of food for Cuba “because we cannot find a shipping solution to bring it to Cuba,” said Etienne Labande, the agency’s Cuba country director.

联合国世界粮食计划署不得不搁置为古巴采购近3000吨食品的计划,“因为我们找不到将其运抵古巴的航运解决方案”,该机构的古巴主任艾蒂安·拉班德表示。

The World Food Program, which was helping supply provisions for Cuba’s subsided food rations, is also trying to find other ways to pay for fuel it used to buy from private companies, because it can no longer pay with Visa or Mastercard, he said.

他说,世界粮食计划署之前正在为古巴补贴口粮供应提供帮助,目前也在寻找其他方式支付向私营公司购买燃料的费用——由于维萨卡和万事达卡已无法使用,此前的付款渠道已告中断。

05int cuba sanctions04 phtoo mtqg master1050上月一次停电期间的哈瓦那圣拉扎罗大道。

The Trump administration’s sanctions against foreign companies, announced in May, largely targeted GAESA, the military conglomerate that operates everything from retail businesses to the tourism industry.

特朗普政府于5月宣布的对外国公司的制裁主要针对的是GAESA,该商业集团由古巴军方控制,经营从零售业到旅游业的各种业务。

GAESA was born out of Cuba’s economic crisis in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, which had been the island nation’s main benefactor.

GAESA诞生于上世纪90年代古巴经济危机时期。当时苏联解体,它一直是这个岛国最主要的援助者。

The U.S. State Department, relying on media reports suggesting GAESA was sitting on enormous piles of cash even as the nation suffers, said the moves would deprive Cuba’s military “access to illicit assets.”

美国国务院援引媒体报道称,古巴经济陷入困境,GAESA却坐拥巨额财富,并据此表示,此次制裁措施将切断古巴军方“获取非法资产的渠道”。

The Cuban government did not respond to a request for comment, but released a scathing statement denouncing the Trump administration.

古巴政府未回应置评请求,但发布了一份措辞严厉的声明,谴责特朗普政府。

The U.S. government, the statement said, had “once again acted with premeditated intent in its eagerness to manufacture pretexts to discredit the Cuban Revolution, its historic leadership, its current leaders, and, in doing so, confuse both our people and international public opinion.”

声明称,美国政府“再次蓄意行事,急于制造借口,诋毁古巴革命、古巴的历史领导人及现任领导人,并借此混淆古巴人民及国际舆论的视听”。

Mr. Díaz-Canel said on social media that GAESA was not “a path to enrichment for a few.’’

迪亚斯-卡内尔在社交媒体上表示,GAESA并非“少数人中饱私囊的途径”。

“On the contrary, it is one of the many examples that, along our path, has allowed us to resist the permanent aggression of the United States government.”

他说:“恰恰相反,它是我们一路走来抵御美国政府持续打压的众多例证之一。”

Seth Eisen, a spokesman for Mastercard, said the decision to withdraw had not been made by Mastercard.

万事达卡发言人塞思·艾森表示,退出古巴市场的决定并非由万事达卡作出。

The bank that had managed the company’s transactions decided to limit operations in Cuba, and without the foreign financial partner, Mastercards will not work to make purchases in Cuba, he said.

管理该公司交易的银行决定限制在古巴的业务,失去这一外国金融合作伙伴后,万事达卡将无法在古巴用于消费支付。

Visa, Iberostar and Blue Diamond did not respond to a request for comment. Meliá, in a statement, said its decision to leave Cuba “was made out of a deep sense of corporate responsibility,” but that the impact of its decision was limited because most of its hotels were already closed.

维萨卡、Iberostar和蓝钻公司均未回应置评请求。美利亚酒店集团在声明中表示,其撤离古巴的决定“是出于深切的企业责任感”,但强调此举影响有限,因为旗下大多数酒店已处于停业状态。

Cuba’s tourism sector has largely collapsed. In January, the Trump administration blocked fuel deliveries to Cuba, which limited the availability of jet fuel and led several airlines to cancel service.

古巴的旅游业已基本崩溃。今年1月,特朗普政府阻止向古巴运送燃料,导致航空燃油告急,多家航空公司取消了飞往古巴的航班。

05int cuba sanctions03 photo hvgz master1050古巴萨帕塔沼泽的拉尔加海滩附近一条几乎空无一人的街道,摄于4月。古巴的旅游业已基本崩溃。

“The reach of these sanctions was much wider and stronger, especially among the hotel chains,” said Paolo Spadoni, a political economist at Augusta University in Georgia who studies Cuba’s tourism industry.

佐治亚州奥古斯塔大学研究古巴旅游业的政治经济学家保罗·斯帕多尼表示:“这些制裁的波及范围更广、力度更强,尤其是在连锁酒店行业。”

He noted that not all of Cuba’s hotels are run by the military conglomerate, and the Spanish hotel companies were continuing to operate hotels run by Cuban entities not tied to GAESA and not targeted with sanctions.

他指出,并非所有古巴酒店都由军方集团运营,而这些西班牙酒店企业仍在继续经营那些不属于GAESA、未受制裁的古巴实体所运营的酒店。

John S. Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, said the latest measures could lead the Cuban military conglomerate to dismantle its operations to comply with the new rules.

美古贸易与经济委员会主席约翰·卡夫利奇表示,最新制裁措施或将迫使古巴军事企业集团拆解旗下业务以满足合规要求。

“In the last 30 days, there has been more commercial, economic and financial destruction in Cuba than in any period since 1959,” Mr. Kavulich said, referring to the year of the Cuban revolution that eventually ushered in Communist rule.

卡夫利奇说:“过去30天里,古巴在商业、经济和金融领域遭受的破坏比1959年以来任何时期都要严重。”他提到的1959年是古巴革命成功、最终迎来共产主义统治的那一年。

The U.S. administration, he said, “achieved so much without firing a shot or one boot on the ground.”

他说,美国政府“不费一枪一弹、未派一兵一卒,就取得了如此巨大的成果”。

The State Department acknowledged that the withdrawal of the hotel firms was precisely what the measures were intended to accomplish.

国务院承认,酒店企业的撤离正是这些制裁措施所预期达到的效果。

“Our sanctions are deliberately targeted to prevent the Cuban military and security services from profiting off international investment in Cuba to fund their continued oppression of the Cuban people and threat to U.S. national security,” the State Department said in a statement provided to The New York Times.

国务院在提供给《纽约时报》的声明中表示:“我们的制裁有明确的目标,就是要阻止古巴军方和安全部门利用对古巴的国际投资获利,从而切断他们用来持续压迫古巴人民、威胁美国国家安全的资金来源。”

“Companies choosing to exit the Cuban market are making a prudent decision to comply with U.S. law and avoid enriching a regime that routinely violates fundamental human rights.”

声明还说:“选择退出古巴市场的企业做出了审慎决策以遵守美国法律,并避免让一个长期侵犯基本人权的政权获得更多资金支持。”

LAUREN HIRSCH

纽约高盛总部大堂内的SpaceX标识。 Kena Betancur/Bloomberg

At Goldman Sachs’s Manhattan headquarters, rocket ships have taken over the lobby.

在高盛位于曼哈顿的总部,大堂已被火箭模型占据。

Not to be outdone, Bank of America is planning to light up the spire atop its Midtown offices on Thursday night to resemble a rocket taking off.

美国银行也不甘示弱,计划在周四晚上点亮其中城写字楼的尖顶,使其看起来像正在发射的火箭。

A few blocks away, JPMorgan Chase will host a SpaceX sales pitch to thousands of clients at its Park Avenue headquarters. It will broadcast to 90 bank branches and offices across 26 states, some of which will close early for the event. The bank’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, will be there to sell the deal to the crowd himself.

就在几个街区之外,摩根大通将在其公园大道总部为数千名客户举办一场SpaceX推介会。该活动将向分布在26个州的90家银行分支机构和办公室进行转播,其中部分机构将提前下班。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将亲自到场,向众人推销这笔交易。

There has never been a larger initial public offering than that of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket maker and artificial intelligence company, and people involved in the sales effort who were not allowed to speak publicly said Wall Street’s efforts to sell the I.P.O. had been just as extraordinary.

埃隆·马斯克的火箭制造和人工智能公司SpaceX即将进行的首次公开募股规模空前。参与销售工作且不便公开发言的人士表示,华尔街为推销此次IPO所做的努力也同样惊人。

SpaceX’s I.P.O., expected next week, is a high-stakes assignment for the 23 banks and brokerage firms that Mr. Musk has hired to sell shares to investors. The bankers are selling the deal to every possible corner of the investment world, from giant asset managers like BlackRock to individual buyers on Reddit.

SpaceX的IPO预计将于下周进行,这对马斯克聘请的23家银行和经纪公司来说是一项非同小可的任务。这些银行家正向投资界的每一个角落推销这笔交易,从贝莱德等大型资产管理公司,到Reddit上的散户投资者。

At stake are the more than $500 million in fees that the banks will collect for their work on SpaceX. But the banks also need to ensure that Mr. Musk’s deal is an unequivocal success to boost confidence in two other mega-offerings of public stock expected in the coming months: OpenAI and Anthropic.

此交易涉及的银行费用超过5亿美元。但银行还需要确保马斯克的这笔交易取得无与伦比的成功,以提振市场对即将到来的另外两只超级IPO——OpenAI和Anthropic的信心。

On Wednesday, SpaceX set the price for its I.P.O. at $135 a share, which would value the company at $1.77 trillion and make it the largest public offering ever.

周三,SpaceX将其IPO价格定为每股135美元,按此定价,公司估值将达到1.77万亿美元,成为有史以来规模最大的公开募股。

At that price, SpaceX would raise $74.4 billion from the offering, and its valuation would be more than 40 percent higher than the $1.25 trillion that it valued itself at in February. The current I.P.O. record is held by Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, which was valued at $1.7 trillion and raised more than $29 billion when it went public in 2019.

以该价格计算,SpaceX将通过此次IPO募集744亿美元,其估值比今年2月自估的1.25万亿美元高出40%以上。目前的IPO纪录由沙特阿美保持,该公司2019年上市时估值1.7万亿美元,募资超过290亿美元。

“Even if they were giving away gold bricks” the sales effort would be “massive,” given the amounts SpaceX is looking to raise, said Edward Best, a partner in capital markets at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher.

威尔基·法尔与加拉格尔律师事务所资本市场合伙人爱德华·贝斯特表示,“即使他们是在送金砖,”考虑到SpaceX计划募集的金额,推销力度也必然是“巨大的”。

SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SpaceX暂未回应置评请求。

The preparation has been brewing for weeks. SpaceX’s bankers have already had a number of “testing the waters” conversations with potential major investors. Such conversations are not atypical, but the size of the multibillion-dollar checks being discussed are.

准备工作已持续数周。SpaceX的银行家们已经与潜在的大型投资者进行了多次“试水”谈话。此类对话并不罕见,但所讨论的数十亿美元支票规模却非同寻常。

Unlike a traditional roadshow in which companies crisscross the country to pitch investors, SpaceX is planning more discreet settings for its largest potential investors. In the coming days, bankers at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will invite investors to their Manhattan offices to privately sell them on the deal, three people familiar with the plans said.

与传统上公司巡回全国向投资者推介的路演不同,SpaceX计划为最重要的潜在大投资者安排更私密的场合。据三位熟悉计划的人士透露,未来几天,摩根士丹利和高盛的银行家将邀请投资者前往其曼哈顿办公室,私下向他们推销这笔交易。

It’s unclear whether Mr. Musk will attend any of these meetings, but he will nonetheless be the star attraction. Part of the pitch is his stature as a once-in-a-lifetime visionary and his company, which envisions the potential colonization of Mars, as a multigenerational deal.

目前尚不清楚马斯克是否会出席这些会议,但他无疑将是最大的亮点。推介内容的一部分就是他作为百年一遇的创想者的地位,以及他的这家致力于火星殖民的公司的跨世代投资价值。

The bankers are projecting a take-it-or-leave-it attitude to investors. Instead of going through a lengthy back-and-forth to set a range of prices for the I.P.O., the banks landed on $135 a share, which investors either have to accept or sit out.

银行家们对投资者采取“没商量”的态度。他们没有经过漫长的讨价还价来设定IPO价格区间,而是直接确定每股135美元,投资者要么接受这个价格,要么退出。

SpaceX also decided to forgo disclosing historical quarterly earnings in its I.P.O. registration documents, as companies traditionally do.

SpaceX还决定不在IPO注册文件中披露传统公司通常会提供的历史季度收益数据。

“For a fast-growing company, you would typically expect to see the quarterly breakdown,” said Matt Kennedy, a senior I.P.O. market strategist at Renaissance Capital. He added that the lack of extensive quarterly numbers indicated that the company’s view should largely be considered through longer-term lenses.

复兴资本高级IPO市场策略师马特·肯尼迪表示,“对于一家快速成长的公司,人们通常会期待看到季度细分数据。”他补充说,缺乏详细季度数据表明,应主要通过长期视角来看待该公司。

Everyday investors are expected to play an inordinately large role in the offering, making up some 30 percent of the buyers. That reflects both Mr. Musk’s fan base among day traders and other individual investors and the large amount of money SpaceX is looking to raise.

散户投资者预计将在此次IPO中扮演异常重要的角色,占买家总数的约30%。这既反映了马斯克在日间交易者和其他个人投资者中的拥趸之众,也反映了SpaceX希望募集的巨额资金规模。

Fidelity said on Thursday that it would facilitate purchases in SpaceX’s I.P.O. for customers with at least $2,000 in a retail brokerage account, less than it usually requires for public offerings.

富达投资周四表示,它将为零售经纪账户中至少有2000美元的客户提供购买SpaceX的IPO股份服务,这一门槛低于其通常对公开发行设定的要求。

On Wednesday, Fidelity hosted a webinar for its legions of 401(k) and other customers about how to “get in early” on an I.P.O.

周三,富达为其大量401(k)和其他客户举办了一场网络会议,介绍如何在IPO中“早早入场”。

While these sorts of events may help build enthusiasm, most of the individual buyers are likely to be very wealthy investors who can afford a significant number of shares at $135 apiece, Mr. Best said. SpaceX has already hosted some prospective high-net-worth investors on field trips to its campus in Hawthorne, Calif., to show off the technology it uses to design and assemble rockets.

贝斯特表示,虽然这类活动可能有助于营造热情,但大多数个人买家很可能仍是极为富有的投资者,他们有能力以每股135美元的价格购买大量股份。SpaceX已组织部分高净值潜在投资者前往其位于加州霍桑的园区进行实地考察,展示其设计和组装火箭所使用的技术。

The banks are doing what they can to ensure that they corral as many of these investors as possible. About 100 of Bank of America’s financial advisers recently squeezed into a room at the bank’s headquarters for a training on how to sell SpaceX I.P.O. shares to their high-net-worth clients.

各银行正竭尽所能吸引尽可能多的这类投资者。最近,美国银行约100名财务顾问挤在总部的一间会议室,接受如何向高净值客户推销SpaceX IPO股份的培训。

Mr. Dimon will be joined for his pitch on Thursday by Mary C. Erdoes, the head of his bank’s asset and wealth management unit. SpaceX’s president and chief operating officer, Gwynne Shotwell, and its chief financial officer, Bret Johnsen, are also expected to address the crowd. They may even walk by the sculpture of a Promethean spire by the artist Dustin Yellin sitting in the lobby.

周四,杰米·戴蒙将与该银行资产与财富管理业务负责人玛丽·埃尔多斯一同进行推介。SpaceX总裁兼首席运营官格温·肖特韦尔以及首席财务官布雷特·约翰森预计也将向现场观众致辞。他们甚至可能会走过大厅里由艺术家达斯汀·耶林创作的普罗米修斯尖顶雕塑。

Ms. Shotwell and Mr. Johnsen will have a busy day regaling investors. Also on Thursday, they are set to speak at the Bank of America headquarters to some 5,000 clients.

肖特韦尔和约翰森周四将会非常忙碌。他们还将在美国银行总部向约5000名客户发表讲话。

Bank of America is calling its gatherings “launch parties.”

美国银行将其举办的这些活动称为“发射聚会”。

CHOE SANG-HUN

周三,聚集在首尔国会大厦的共同民主党党员和议员们,在出口民调预测该党将在地方选举中取得压倒性胜利后欢呼雀跃。 Lee Jin-Man/Associated Press

The governing center-left party of South Korea scored a sweeping victory in local elections on Wednesday but suffered a stinging setback in the capital, Seoul, losing the race for the city’s mayor, which is considered the most powerful elected office after the presidency.

执政的韩国中左翼政党在周三的地方选举中取得了压倒性胜利,但在首都首尔却遭遇了惨痛打击,输掉了最有权力、被认为仅次于总统的的民选职位——首尔市长。

Pre-election surveys and exit polls had consistently predicted that the candidate from President Lee Jae Myung’s Democratic Party would defeat the incumbent in Seoul, a conservative. The party, which already holds a parliamentary majority, had hoped to use the local elections to consolidate its influence and extend Mr. Lee’s political momentum, a year after his presidential victory.

选前调查和出口民调一直预测韩国总统李在明所在的共同民主党的候选人将击败首尔现任的保守派市长。共同民主党已经在议会中占据多数席位,本希望在李在明赢得总统大选一年后,利用此次地方选举来巩固影响力,并延续他的政治势头。

“Seoul citizens have once again firmly established the fundamental principle of democracy: checks and balances,” Oh Se-hoon, who was re-elected mayor of Seoul, said on Thursday. “You have kept Seoul as the final safeguard of democracy, ensuring that South Korea does not tilt entirely to one side.”

“首尔市民再次坚定地确立了民主的基本原则:制衡,”周四连任首尔市长的吴世勋表示。“你们让首尔成为了民主的最后屏障,确保了韩国不会完全向一侧倾斜。”

His rival, Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o, conceded defeat.

他的竞争对手、共同民主党候选人郑元五承认败选。

With nearly all votes counted Thursday, the Democratic Party won 12 of 16 contests for metropolitan mayors and provincial governors. Those included the governorship of Gyeonggi Province — the populous area surrounding Seoul — and the mayor’s office in Busan, South Korea’s second-largest city and traditionally a conservative stronghold. The People Power Party won the remaining four contests, including the mayorship of Daegu and two provincial governorships in the southeastern Gyeongsang region, its longtime stronghold.

随着周四几乎所有选票统计完毕,共同民主党赢得了16个广域市市长和道知事(省级行政区首长)竞选中的12个。其中包括环绕首尔的人口大省京畿道的知事职位,以及韩国第二大城市、传统保守派大本营釜山的市长职位。国民力量党赢得了其余四场竞选,包括大邱市长以及其长期大本营东南部庆尚地区的两个道知事职位。

In the last local elections four years ago, the People Power Party swept a majority of races. But its standing collapsed after its then-leader, former President Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law in late 2024, was subsequently removed from office and was sentenced to life imprisonment on insurrection charges.

在四年前的上一次地方选举中,国民力量党横扫了大多数席位。但在其时任党首、前总统尹锡悦于2024年底宣布戒严,随后被罢免并因叛乱罪被判处终身监禁后,该党的地位一落千丈。

04int skorea election 02 fghc master1050“首尔市民再次坚定地确立了民主的基本原则:制衡,”连任首尔市长的吴世勋在周四表示。

By contrast, Mr. Lee’s approval ratings have soared during his time in office, buoyed by pragmatic diplomacy and a booming domestic stock market. His party had hoped to translate that popularity into a sweeping local mandate. In South Korea, mayoral and gubernatorial races are invariably seen as referendums on the sitting president.

相比之下,李在明在任期间的支持率一路飙升,这得益于其务实的外交和繁荣的国内股市。他所在的政党本希望将这种高人气转化为地方选举中的压倒性胜利。在韩国,市长和道知事选举通常被视为对现任总统的信任公投。

By Wednesday evening, things appeared to go as Mr. Lee’s party had hoped, with exit polls predicting a landslide for the Democratic Party.

到周三晚间,局势似乎正如李在明的政党所希望的那样发展,出口民调预测共同民主党将获得压倒性胜利。

Explaining how he pulled off his come-from-behind win Thursday, Mr. Oh credited first the support of “young people who, despite being frustrated by the broken ladder of social mobility, dream once again of a fair and hopeful future.”

在解释自己如何逆转,取得周四的胜利时,吴世勋首先将其归功于年轻人的支持,“这些年轻人虽然因社会流动阶梯的断裂而感到挫败,但仍再次梦想一个公平和充满希望的未来。”

Exit polls, as well as pre-election public opinion surveys, showed Mr. Oh drawing his strongest support not only from traditionally conservative voters aged 70 and older, but also from men in their 30s and younger — a demographic that has increasingly leaned right in recent election cycles, driven by frustration over scarce job opportunities and soaring housing prices.

出口民调以及选前民意调查显示,吴世勋不仅获得了70岁及以上传统保守派选民的强烈支持,还获得了30岁及以下男性的支持——在近期的选举周期中,由于就业机会稀缺和房价飙升带来的挫败感,这一群体日益右倾。

The Democratic Party’s loss in Seoul and the shifting loyalties of younger voters “raise red alarms” and “presage difficulties the party could face in future elections,” said Ahn Byong-jin, a professor of political science at Kyung Hee University in Seoul.

共同民主党在首尔的败北以及年轻选民支持倾向的转变“拉响了红色警报”,并“预示着该党在未来的选举中可能面临的困难”,首尔庆熙大学政治学教授安炳镇(音)说。

Election Day was marred by ballot shortages at several polling stations in southern Seoul, forcing citizens to wait past closing hours to cast their votes. On Thursday, Mr. Lee ordered an investigation into the shortfall.

首尔南部几个投票站的选票短缺给选举日蒙上了阴影,迫使选民在投票截止时间后继续等待投票。周四,李在明下令对选票短缺事件展开调查。

South Korea also held parliamentary by-elections Wednesday to fill 14 vacant National Assembly seats. The Democratic Party won nine, the People Power Party four, and the remaining seat went to Han Dong-hoon — who ran as an independent after being expelled from the People Power Party following his support for Mr. Yoon’s impeachment. Elections also filled 227 lower-level local posts, with the Democratic Party again winning a majority.

周三,韩国还举行了议会补选,以填补14个国会空缺席位。共同民主党赢得九席,国民力量党赢得四席,剩余的一席由韩东勋获得——他在支持弹劾尹锡悦后被国民力量党开除,随后以独立候选人身份参选。选举还填补了227个下级地方职位,共同民主党再次赢得了多数。

Both Mr. Oh and Mr. Han opposed Mr. Yoon’s martial law and are seen as potential presidential contenders for the conservative camp. Mr. Han’s victory gives him momentum to attempt a return to the People Power Party and challenge its leadership, which has faced accusations of sympathy toward Mr. Yoon’s declaration of martial law.

吴世勋和韩东勋都曾反对尹锡悦的戒严令,并被视为保守阵营潜在的总统参选人。韩东勋的胜利给了他重返国民力量党并挑战其领导层的动力,该党领导层此前一直被指同情尹锡悦宣布戒严而受到批评。

“The people punished the People Power Party for martial law by giving Democrats a landslide,” said Lee Jae-Mook, a political scientist at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “But by electing Oh and Han, they also voted for checks and balances and planted seeds for conservative revival.”

“民众通过让共同民主党获得压倒性胜利惩罚了推行戒严的国民力量党,”韩国外国语大学政治学学者李在默说。“但是,通过选举吴世勋和韩东勋,他们也投票拥护制衡,并为保守派的复苏播下了种子。”

KENDRA VACULIN

Julia Gartland for The New York Times. Prop Stylist: JoJo Li.

Greg Willsey wasn’t sure sour watermelon-dusted dates made much sense. But as a founder of Joolies, a snack brand best known for its bags of plain Medjool dates, he’d noticed that competitors and home cooks alike were starting to get a little weird with the fruit. A candy-inspired approach might work as a sort of Trojan horse to getting his company’s fresh fruit on more shelves.

格雷格·威尔西一开始并不确定裹着酸西瓜粉的椰枣是否靠谱。但作为Joolies——以销售原味椰枣而闻名的零食品牌——的创始人之一,他注意到,无论是竞争对手还是家庭烹饪者,都开始把这种水果玩出各种不无怪异的新花样。借鉴糖果风味的做法,也许能成为一种“特洛伊木马”,让公司的鲜果出现在更多货架上。

“Some people, myself included, were skeptical that it would work,” he said. When Joolies previewed its Date Sours in March at Expo West, an annual trade-show of emerging food brands, the product was just one of 250 date-based items on the floor.

“包括我在内,有些人当初对这能否成功持怀疑态度,”他说。今年3月,Joolies在新兴食品品牌年度行业展会——西部天然产品博览会上预展了旗下的酸椰枣产品Date Sours,该产品只是展会上250种椰枣类产品中的一款。

“We started seeing dates pop up two or three years ago, as an ingredient used in place of stevia and allulose,” said Adrienne Smith, Expo West’s director of content. “But this year was all about embracing the date itself. They really exploded as a snack.”

“两三年前,我们开始看到椰枣作为甜菊糖和阿洛酮糖的一种替代配料出现,”西部天然产品博览会的内容总监艾德丽安·史密斯说。“但今年的主角就是椰枣本身。作为一种零食,它们现在太火了。”

At the show, dates appeared in “every format you could possibly imagine,” including coated in candy shell, mashed into birthday cake-flavored balls and used as a sweetener in soda. “I think it’s funny, you look at a date and think, how could people possibly innovate with this? Yet somehow they did.”

在这次展会上,椰枣以“你能想象到的各种形式”出现,包括裹上糖衣外壳、压成果泥制成生日蛋糕口味能量球,以及作为汽水中的甜味剂。“我觉得很有意思,你看着一颗椰枣,心想,人们怎么可能在这上面创新呢?但他们居然真的做到了。”

Once the purview of specialty shops and health food co-ops, dates have become a supermarket darling. Wrinkled, dusky and the size of a thumb, the fruit may not be an obvious packaged-snack superstar. But a number of brands are transforming malleable dates in ways big and small to appeal to more fiber-desperate, sugar-skeptical consumers. You’ll find them in nearly every aisle: stuffed and dipped with the candy, blended into fuel near the protein bars, as alternative sweeteners alongside other baking ingredients and, of course, whole and unadulterated in the produce department.

椰枣曾是特产店和健康食品合作社的专属,如今已成为超市的宠儿。这种皱巴巴的、拇指般大小的水果颜色暗沉,乍看之下并不像是包装零食界的明星。但许多品牌正以或大或小的方式改造这种可塑性极强的水果,以迎合那些渴望补充膳食纤维、又对糖分抱有疑虑的消费者。你几乎能在超市的每一个货架区找到它的身影:夹心填充或者包裹各种外衣做成糖果、做成蛋白棒一样的能量食品,作为替代甜味剂与其他烘焙原料摆在一起,当然还有生鲜区里原汁原味的整颗椰枣。

To some, this influx may look like just another superfood getting its moment, destined to eventually go the way of the kale chip. Snack brands and retailers, however, are betting that the fruit’s best days are yet to come.

在一些人看来,这股热潮或许只是又一种超级食品迎来了自己的高光时刻,最终会像羽衣甘蓝脆片一样逐渐退潮。然而,零食品牌和零售商们押注的是:椰枣最好的日子还在后头。

First cultivated in the Middle East and Northern Africa, dates have had a place in culinary culture for millenniums, as the first bite to break a fast, as a way to welcome guests into one’s home, and as a foundational element of dishes like tagine and sticky toffee pudding. But motivating this latest surge in popularity is their nutritional profile, which aligns with dietary trends.

椰枣最早种植于中东和北非地区,数千年来在人类的饮食文化中一直占有一席之地——作为开斋的第一口食物,作为迎宾待客的礼仪,以及作为塔吉锅太妃糖布丁等菜肴的基础食材。推动这轮热潮的是它符合当下饮食趋势的营养价值。

Consumers are shifting away from snacks with long lists of unfamiliar ingredients, opting instead for products made with whole foods they can count on one hand, Ms. Smith said. Dates, easy to manipulate and high in fiber, are a natural fit.

史密斯表示,消费者正逐渐远离那些配料表长得吓人、成分陌生的零食,转而选择由少数几种天然食材制成的产品。椰枣容易加工,又富含膳食纤维,自然成为理想之选。

In the packaged goods space, fiber is quickly catching up with protein in terms of consumer interest, with dates emerging as a simple vehicle for the macronutrient. One serving of dates (about three pieces) contains about five grams of fiber, which is a helpful step toward the daily recommendation of 25 grams per day for women and 38 grams for men — especially when the average American is consuming only 10 to 15 grams daily, according to Maya Feller, a dietitian nutritionist.

在包装食品领域,消费者对膳食纤维的兴趣正迅速追赶对蛋白质的关注,而椰枣正在成为获取这种常量营养素的简单载体。根据营养师玛雅·费勒的说法,一份椰枣(约三颗)含有约5克膳食纤维,相较于女性每日推荐摄入量25克、男性38克的标准,这是一个不小的贡献——尤其考虑到美国人平均每日摄入量仅为10至15克的情况下。

29FD DATE MANIA 21 qzbj jumbo
原味椰枣本身就很美味。裹上巧克力或撒上酸糖粉的椰枣固然美味,却算不上真正的健康食品。 Julia Gartland for The New York Times. Prop Stylist: JoJo Li.

Still, she recommends managing your health-related expectations if you’re opting for one of the more altered date snacks on the market. “If it’s stuffed with peanut butter and covered in chocolate, enjoy it!” Ms. Feller said. “But don’t think it’s going to support gut health. Right? That’s a dessert.”

不过,她建议,若选购的是市面上经过较多加工的椰枣零食,不妨适当调低对健康功效的预期。“如果里面塞了花生酱、外面裹了巧克力,尽情享用就好!”费勒说,“但别指望它能促进肠道健康。对吧?那是甜点。”

Dates’ natural sweetness has also made them an attractive substitute for sugar to snack companies and consumers. “They’re lower on the glycemic index than sugar,” said Vanessa Rissetto, a dietitian nutritionist, referring to a metric that ranks foods based on how quickly they raise a person’s blood sugar. “They taste decadent, but have minimal impact on your blood sugar.”

椰枣的天然甜味也使其成为零食公司和消费者眼中理想的糖替代品。“它们的升糖指数比糖低,”营养师凡妮莎·里塞托说道,升糖指数是衡量食物引起血糖上升速度的指标。“它们口感浓郁美味,但对血糖的影响很小。”

This benefit inspired Sylvie Royston, then a practicing physician, to start Just Date. The company unveiled its first product, a date syrup, in 2018. “My mom always used dates to sweeten our Indian chutneys growing up,” she said. Just Date subsequently introduced a granulated date sugar and date-sweetened chocolate chips, and sells both to bakeries and granola companies.

正是这一益处促使当时还在行医的西尔维·罗伊斯顿创办了Just Date公司。该公司于2018年推出了第一款产品——椰枣糖浆。“我妈妈在我小时候总是用椰枣来给我们的印度酸辣酱增甜,”她说。Just Date随后推出了颗粒椰枣糖和椰枣甜味巧克力碎,并向烘焙坊和麦片品牌供货。

Just Date is less than a decade old, but it’s the established veteran in the growing date-centric C.P.G. space. Newer brands, brought to market post-pandemic and angling for shelf space, are focusing on easy snacking and splashy flavors.

Just Date成立不足十年,却已是这个蓬勃兴起的椰枣消费品领域的元老级品牌。疫情后涌入市场、争抢货架位置的新兴品牌则将重心放在方便零食和新奇口味上。

In 2022, Michelle Valdez-Wilton, a former pastry chef, started Date Better, which sells gussied-up versions of the nut butter-stuffed, dark chocolate-dipped dates that have become ubiquitous across social media. Varieties include baklava and cashew lime crisp (with toasted quinoa for texture) — bold flavor choices meant to stand out in a crowding market. “I have retailers reaching out to me saying, ‘Dates are really hot, and we’re looking for two date products to bring in,’” Ms. Valdez-Wilton said.

2022年,前糕点厨师米歇尔·瓦尔德兹-威尔顿创立了Date Better,主打在社交媒体上随处可见的经典款——坚果酱填馅、裹上黑巧克力的椰枣的精致升级版。口味包括果仁蜜饼味和腰果青柠脆片味(加入烤藜麦增加口感)——这些都是大胆的风味选择,旨在从拥挤的市场中脱颖而出。瓦尔德兹-威尔顿女士说,“有零售商主动联系我说,‘椰枣很火,我们想引进两款椰枣产品。’”

Datefix, created in 2023, sells Medjool dates blended with orange blossom water in squeezable pouches to fuel workouts. Alan Scholnick, the company’s founder, calls himself “a distance runner with a sweet tooth.” To him, Datefix is the real-food answer to function-forward running gels laden with fillers and stabilizers. The ingredients of Datefix “read like an Ottolenghi cookbook,” he said.

2023年创立的Datefix则将美卓椰枣与橙花水混合,装入可挤压的软袋里,作为运动补给品出售。创始人艾伦·肖尔尼克自称是“一个爱吃甜食的长跑运动员”。在他看来,Datefix是对那些充斥着填充剂和稳定剂的功能性跑步能量胶的天然食品替代方案。Datefix的配料表“读起来像奥托兰吉(网红厨师——译注)的食谱”,他说。

All of these new date snack brands need to get their fruit from somewhere. With sourcing under scrutiny from consumers and rising tariffs to consider, many companies are tapping the most prolific date-growing region in the United States. Farmers in the area, which stretches from the Coachella Valley in Southern California to the Arizona-Mexico border, say keeping up with demand is a struggle.

所有这些新的椰枣零食品牌都需要稳定的货源。在消费者对供应链越来越关注、关税压力又不断上升的背景下,许多公司将目光投向美国最主要的椰枣产区。从南加州科切拉谷延伸至亚利桑那-墨西哥边境一带的椰枣种植区农户表示,应对激增的需求已是力不从心。

Bautista Family Organic Dates, a family-run farm in Mecca, Calif., has both a farmers’ market presence and a thriving online business — but only until their harvest sells out, which happens quicker and quicker each year. “When we started, we only sold to local restaurants, but now we get orders from all over the U.S.,” said Alvaro Bautista, an owner. “It’s what we’ve been wishing for, but it’s a good-bad thing.”

鲍蒂斯塔有机椰枣农场位于加利福尼亚州梅卡,这家家族经营的农场既在农贸市场设有摊位,网上业务也颇为兴旺——但前提是他们还有货。如今他们的收成一年比一年更快售罄。“刚起步时,我们只向本地餐厅供货,现在却收到来自全美各地的订单,”农场主阿尔瓦罗·鲍蒂斯塔说。“这正是我们一直希望看到的,但也是一种幸福的烦恼。”

“We are facing massive supply problems on the grower side,” said Joan Smith, who turned a handful of date palms into Rancho Meladuco Date Farm, her 10-acre business outside Palm Springs, Calif. Its sampler boxes of the fruit have a devoted following. “We can’t plant new trees fast enough, and as a result, we’re all out chasing the same fruit and trying to meet our respective customer demand.”

“种植者这一端正面临严峻的供应问题,”琼·史密斯说。她将屈指可数的几株椰枣树发展成了棕榈泉郊外一座占地4公顷的兰乔梅拉杜科椰枣农场。该农场的椰枣拼装礼盒拥有一批忠实拥趸。“我们种新树的速度赶不上需求增长,因此结果就是:我们都在争抢同一批枣椰,努力满足各自客户的需求。”

That the fibrous fruit became a bottleneck-causing snack craze is not surprising to those who work in nutrition. “In the U.S., we have a ‘some is good, more is better’ mentality,” said Ms. Feller, the dietitian. “This is what we do with any food that, in its naturally occurring form, can be beneficial. People want one thing to be an end-all, be-all.”

对于营养领域从业者而言,这种富含纤维的水果引发供应瓶颈并不让人意外。“在美国,我们有一种‘有点好处就要多多益善’的思维方式,”营养师费勒说。“任何一种在天然形态下对健康有益的食物,我们都会如此对待。人们总想找到万能的解决方案。”

STELLA RAINE CHU

This article is part of Overlooked, a series of obituaries about remarkable people whose deaths, beginning in 1851, went unreported in The Times.

被忽视的逝者》是一个杰出人物讣告系列,这些人物在1851年后离世,当时没有得到时报的讣闻报道。

Nancy Sheung told stories about herself the way she composed her photographs: dramatically, and with careful attention to how she was framed.

常惠珍(Nancy Sheung)讲述自己故事的风格和她构图拍照的风格一样:充满戏剧性,并且格外留意自己如何被框入画面。

She claimed to have worked at an opium den when she was 14 to pay for her education. She said she rode alone on horseback to school, carrying a gun for protection. She recalled long afternoons speeding through Hong Kong in a Fiat 124 Spider convertible in the 1960s.

她自称14岁时曾在鸦片馆工作以支付学费。她说自己曾独自骑马去上学,并带着枪防身。她回忆起20世纪60年代,在漫长的午后,她驾驶着一辆菲亚特124 Spider敞篷车在香港飞驰。

Her family would later debate the details of some of these stories. But whether embroidered or exact, they spoke to the persona Sheung constructed: fearless, modern, impossible to contain.

她的家人后来对其中一些故事的细节提出过争议。但无论这些故事是经过润色还是确有其事,它们都彰显着常惠珍所构建的个人形象:无畏、现代、不受束缚。

In both her self-fashioning and in her photography, Sheung was deeply invested in crafting an image of female autonomy and audacity at a time when women’s lives were constrained by traditional expectations.

无论是在自我塑造还是在摄影作品中,常惠珍都致力于打造一个自主、大胆的女性形象,而在那个时代,女性的生活仍受到传统期望的诸多限制。

In “The Long Haired Girl,” a young woman stands with her back to the camera, her hands on her hips as she looks to the side with a defiant, steely expression. Her hair, braided into two pigtails, stretches down her back and sways to the side as she turns.

在《长发女孩》(The Long Haired Girl)中,一位年轻女性背对镜头,双手叉腰,目光转向一侧,神情挑衅坚毅。她的头发编成两条辫子,垂在背后,随着转身,辫子向一侧摇曳。

在《长发女孩》这幅作品中,一名女子背对镜头,侧目而视,神情倔强。 The Nancy Sheung Trust

Long hair is seen in China as a sacred gift from one’s parents, representing health and devotion to family. Sheung often used hair as both texture and symbol. In “The Gaze,” a woman’s eye peers into the camera out of a nest of hair wrapped around her face.

在中国,长发被视为父母赐予的神圣礼物,象征着健康和对家庭的忠诚。常惠珍经常将头发作为一种质感元素,又作为一种象征。在《凝视》(The Gaze)中,一个女人的眼睛通过缠绕在脸庞的一团发丝凝视着镜头。

“She was very intentional and artistic,” Tiffany Wai-Ying Beres, Sheung’s granddaughter and a curator in California, said in an interview. “These were not documentary photographs. They were art photographs of her own making.”

“她非常有主见,而且很有艺术气质,”常惠珍的孙女、加州策展人庞惠英(Tiffany Wai-Ying Beres)在采访中说。“这些不是纪实摄影。它们是她自己创作的艺术摄影作品。”

28Overlooked Sheung 08 wcjg jumbo
在《凝视》及其他照片中,常惠珍将头发既作为一种质感,也作为一种象征。 The Nancy Sheung Trust

Sheung Wai Chun was born on Oct. 4, 1915, in Suzhou, China, near Shanghai. She later adopted the name Nancy, which she used in her travels and international photography submissions.

1915年10月4日,常惠珍出生于中国上海附近的苏州。她后来使用Nancy这个英文名字,在旅行和向国际摄影比赛投稿时使用。

Details about her childhood are sparse. Records give her mother’s name as Kwok Chat; her father’s name is unknown. Girls had limited access to formal education, so Sheung funded her own schooling.

关于她童年的细节很少。记录显示她母亲的名字是郭芝(音);她父亲的名字不详。当时女孩接受正规教育的机会有限,因此常惠珍靠自己筹措学费完成学业。

She later moved to Guangzhou, where she met Pong Koon Wah, a coal and gas merchant. The couple was married, and settled in Hong Kong in the mid-1930s.

后来她搬到广州,在那里遇到煤炭和煤气商人庞冠华。两人结为夫妻,并于20世纪30年代中期定居香港。

28Overlooked Sheung qphk master1050《香港之巅》是常惠珍于1960年代拍摄的作品。她曾游历东亚各地进行摄影创作;多幅作品曾参展并获奖。

Sheung had six children but seemed determined not to disappear into domestic life. Instead — aided by the privilege of having a household staff — she immersed herself in Hong Kong’s cosmopolitan social circles, throwing mahjong gatherings that stretched from sunrise to sundown and cultivating a glamorous, fast-moving life.

常惠珍育有六个孩子,但她似乎下定决心不让自己消失在家庭生活中。得益于拥有家政人员的优渥条件,她全身心地投入到香港这座国际化都市的社交圈中,举办从早到晚的麻将聚会,过着一种光鲜亮丽的快节奏生活。

She saw opportunity in the city’s postwar building boom and started her own construction and architecture firm, Wai Foong Construction, despite having no formal education in the field; she ended up becoming the family’s breadwinner. But by the late 1950s, Hong Kong’s economy had slowed, and many construction projects were halted.

她在战后这座城市的建筑热潮中看到了机遇,尽管没有受过该领域的正规教育,她还是创办了自己的建筑工程公司——惠珍建筑,最终成为家庭的经济支柱。但到了20世纪50年代末,香港经济放缓,许多建筑项目陷入停滞。

28Overlooked Sheung 04 wcjg jumbo
常惠珍,摄于60年代初。她在40多岁时买下了人生中第一台相机——一台禄来福来。 The Nancy Sheung Trust

Around that time, Sheung attended a luncheon at the Hong Kong Club, where European art photography was on display. In those black-and-white prints, she saw how reality could be captured through the lens of a camera. She had to try it for herself.

大约在那个时候,常惠珍参加了香港会的一场午餐会,那里正在展出欧洲的艺术摄影作品。在那些黑白照片中,她看到了现实如何通过相机镜头被捕捉下来。她决心亲自尝试一下。

In 1960, Sheung, well into her 40s, purchased her first camera, a Rolleiflex. She apprenticed with a local photographer and taught herself how to develop photos and master techniques like dodging and burning, which are used to manipulate select areas of a print. She later converted a bathroom in her home into a darkroom.

1960年,当时已年过40的常惠珍买下了她的第一台相机——一台禄来福来(Rolleiflex)。她拜当地一位摄影师为师,自学冲洗照片,并掌握了减光和加光等用来处理照片局部区域的技巧。后来,她将家里的一个浴室改造成了暗房。

Her experience with architecture helped her identify striking frames.

她在建筑领域的经验帮助她发现了引人注目的构图。

28Overlooked Sheung wvgf jumbo
常惠珍经常拍摄楼梯——这是香港高密度建筑的标志性特征,正如这张名为《气球》的照片所示。 The Nancy Sheung Trust

She often photographed stairways, a defining feature of densely-built Hong Kong, where steep hills and cramped apartments pushed life upward. For many residents, especially children, the stairs became gathering places and playgrounds. In “Balloons,” a young boy and girl play against a sliver of open sky above the viewer. The image captures a fleeting moment of childhood wonder.

她经常拍摄楼梯,这是建筑密集的香港的一个标志性特征,陡峭的山丘和拥挤的公寓迫使人们的生活向上延伸。对于许多居民,尤其是孩子们来说,楼梯成了聚会场所和玩耍的地方。在《气球》(Balloons)中,一个小男孩和一个小女孩在观者上方的一线开阔天空下玩耍。这张图片捕捉到了转瞬即逝的童年奇妙时刻。

One of Sheung’s best-known works, “The Pigtail,” features her daughter Annie Pong, who was then 15. Annie poses, wearing a striped shirt, in front of a striped backdrop. A long, black braid tied with a bow is draped over a ledge (also striped), on which she rests her chin.

常惠珍最著名的作品之一《辫子》(The Pigtail),主角是她当时15岁的女儿安妮·庞。安妮穿着条纹衬衫,在条纹背景前摆好姿势。一条系着蝴蝶结的黑色长辫子搭在一个同样满是条纹的壁架上,她将下巴搁在上面。

The photograph appears composed and serene, but the process behind it was anything but.

这张照片看起来构图精妙、氛围宁静,但其背后的拍摄过程却非如此。

“I didn’t know what I got myself into,” Pong said in an interview. “It was a very long ordeal. I just remember being miserable because it was so hot. My mother said, ‘It will be over soon, then we’ll get lunch.’”

“我当时不知道自己参与了什么,”安妮·庞在接受采访时说。“那是一次非常漫长的煎熬。我只记得因为天气太热,我非常难受。妈妈说,‘马上就拍完了,然后就吃午饭。’”

Sheung joined the Photographic Society of Hong Kong in 1965 and became its vice president in 1970. She took photographs across East Asia; a number of them won prizes and were exhibited around the world, including at the Royal Photographic Society in England.

常惠珍于1965年加入香港摄影学会,并于1970年成为该学会副会长。她曾遍访东亚各地进行拍摄,许多作品屡获殊荣,并在世界各地展出,包括英国皇家摄影学会。

As her artistic career expanded, she relied on live-in workers like nannies, a housekeeper and a chef to free up time for photography. In 1971, when she won an award for one of her photos, a newspaper reporter asked her if she felt like she was neglecting her family in her travels.

随着艺术事业的扩展,她依靠保姆、管家和厨师等住家帮佣来腾出时间进行摄影创作。1971年,当她凭借一张照片获奖时,一位报社记者问她,是否觉得自己四处奔波,冷落了家人。

28Overlooked Sheung Subb kmqh master10501960年代末,常惠珍站在香港展览现场,身旁是她的作品。

“I don’t think so,” she responded. “Household chores are usually taken care of by others, so I don’t need to be involved. I can say that none of my daughters were ever embraced more than 10 times when they were young.”

“我不这么觉得,”她回答说。“家务活平时有其他人照料,所以我不需要参与。可以说,我女儿们小的时候,我抱她们都没有超过10次。”

Sheung died of a heart attack on Jan. 17, 1979, while working in her darkroom in her Hong Kong home. She was 64.

1979年1月17日,常惠珍在香港家中暗房工作时突发心脏病去世,享年64岁。

Her photographs have achieved new prominence in recent years as curators have increasingly recognized underappreciated female artists. In 2015, Lumenvisum, a nonprofit in Hong Kong, organized the retrospective “Rare Encounters: Nancy Sheung’s Portraits of Women in the 1960s.”

近年来,随着策展人越来越认可那些被低估的女性艺术家,她的摄影作品获得了新的瞩目。2015年,香港非营利组织光影作坊组织了回顾展《珍影集:常惠珍镜头下的1960年代香港女性》。

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常惠珍于1970年拍摄的《阴影》。她在建筑领域的经验帮助她找到了引人注目的构图。 The Nancy Sheung Trust

“Nancy Sheung was an absolute perfectionist, which can be easily discerned from the selections of subjects, the compositions and tonal controls in her photographs,” the exhibition’s curator, Edwin K. Lai, wrote. “She was always meticulous and articulate, and strived hard to obtain the best and most beautiful results.”

“论摄影风格常惠珍绝对是唯美主义者:无论是选择题材、画面经营、色调调控等各方面,”该展览的策展人黎健强写道。“她都非常严格一丝不苟、力求尽善尽美。”

Much of the renewed attention to Sheung’s work can be traced to Beres, her granddaughter, who has helped preserve and reintroduce her photographs to curators and institutions.

对常惠珍作品的重新关注很大程度上要归功于她的孙女庞惠英,她一直帮助保存这些照片,并将其重新介绍给策展人和艺术机构。

“There really aren’t many heroines in Chinese art,” Beres said in an interview. “Even though she didn’t get the notoriety I think she desired when she was living, to be able to come back and give her a place in this pantheon of great photographers is humbling.”

“中国艺术中真的没有很多女性英雄,”庞惠英在接受采访时说。“尽管她生前未能获得我认为她所渴望的声名,但如今能够重新回来,为她在伟大的摄影家殿堂中赢得一席之地,这让我深感荣幸。”

ROBERT JIMISON, MEGAN MINEIRO

周三的投票再次凸显了国会共和党人与特朗普总统在诸多问题上的分歧,随着中期国会选举临近,双方的利益出现分化。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times

The House on Wednesday voted to direct President Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from Iran or win approval from Congress to continue the war, after four Republicans sided with Democrats in a striking sign of growing opposition to a military campaign now in its fourth month.

众议院周三投票决定,要求特朗普总统从伊朗撤出美国军队,或者获得国会批准以继续战争。此前,有四名共和党人倒戈支持民主党,这发出了一个显著的信号,表明针对这场已持续四个月的军事行动,反对之声正在日益高涨。

Adoption of the resolution was a remarkable rebuke to Mr. Trump and his handling of the war, after he has repeatedly dismissed any effort by Congress to curb his power and as the G.O.P. has largely ceded its prerogatives to do so, deferring to him time and again. Republicans had abruptly postponed the vote two weeks ago, recognizing that they did not have sufficient votes to defeat the measure and wanting to spare themselves and the president the affront.

该决议的通过是对特朗普及其战争处理方式的有力谴责。此前,他曾多次无视国会旨在限制他权力的努力,而共和党也很大程度上放弃了行使这一职责的特权,一次又一次地向他让步。两周前,共和党人突然推迟了投票,因为他们意识到自己没有足够的票数来否决这项决议,并且希望避免让自己和总统难堪。

But they made no headway over the ensuing days in winning converts, as the conflict has dragged on and Mr. Trump has made little progress toward ending it. And G.O.P. leaders were unable to delay the vote any longer because Democrats had invoked the War Powers Resolution, which requires consideration of such measures within a limited period of time.

但在随后的几天里,由于冲突不断拖延,而且特朗普在结束冲突方面几乎没有取得任何进展,共和党在争取支持者方面毫无建树。并且,由于民主党人援引了《战争权力决议》(该决议要求在有限的时间内审议此类措施),共和党领导人无法再继续推迟投票。

The move was also the latest reflection of divisions between Republicans in Congress and the president on a range of issues as their interests diverge in the run-up to the midterm congressional elections. It came after Senate Republicans have in recent days forced Mr. Trump to abandon his request for $1 billion in security funding for his ballroom project and a plan that the Justice Department announced to create a federal fund to pay claimants who accuse the government of having victimized them.

这一举动也是国会共和党人与总统在一系列问题上存在分歧的最新体现,随着国会中期选举的临近,他们的利益开始出现分化。此前几天,参议院共和党人迫使特朗普放弃了他为其宴会厅项目申请的10亿美元安全资金的请求,并迫使他放弃了司法部宣布设立联邦基金赔偿指控政府侵害其权益的申诉人这一计划。

The vote was 215 to 208 to adopt the war powers resolution, sending it to the Senate. Even if it were to pass both chambers, the ability of lawmakers to force a president to withdraw troops remains a contested legal question, and Mr. Trump and his senior aides have dismissed any effort by Congress to limit his war powers as unconstitutional.

众议院最终以215票对208票通过了这项战争权力决议,并将其送交参议院。即使该决议能在两院获得通过,立法者是否有能力迫使总统撤军仍然是一个有争议的法律问题,而特朗普及其高级助手已将国会限制其战争权力的努力斥为违宪。

But the vote in the House, and a similar one in the Senate last month when a handful of G.O.P. defectors broke from the president and opposed the war, indicate an increasing willingness by some members of the president’s party to pressure him to end a conflict that a majority of Americans say is not worth the costs.

但是众议院的这次投票,以及上月参议院的一次类似投票(当时少数共和党倒戈者与总统决裂,反对战争),表明总统所在政党的一些成员日益希望向他施压,要求他结束这场大多数美国人认为得不偿失的冲突。

Republican Representatives Tom Barrett of Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Warren Davidson of Ohio and Thomas Massie of Kentucky crossed party lines to vote with Democrats in favor of the resolution. Representative Jared Golden, Democrat of Maine, who had previously opposed similar measures, switched his position to support it.

密歇根州共和党众议员汤姆·巴雷特、宾夕法尼亚州的布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克、俄亥俄州的沃伦·戴维森和肯塔基州的托马斯·马西跨越党派界限,与民主党人一起投票支持该决议。此前曾反对过类似议案的缅因州民主党众议员贾里德·戈尔登也改变立场,转而支持该决议。

Though the few defections were notable, almost every Republican voted against the resolution. Most of them have accepted the Trump administration’s claim that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States, the legal threshold under the War Powers Resolution of 1973 for the president to order attacks on a foreign adversary without the permission of Congress.

尽管少数几人的倒戈引人注目,但几乎所有共和党人都投票反对了该决议。他们大多数人接受了特朗普政府的说法,即伊朗对美国构成了迫在眉睫的威胁——根据1973年《战争权力决议》,这是总统在未经国会许可情况下对外国对手发动攻击的法律门槛。

Many have dismissed Democrats’ war powers measures, which call for the removal of most U.S. forces from hostilities in Iran, as politically motivated attacks on the president that would leave American interests unprotected.

许多人驳斥了民主党人的战争权力措施——该措施要求将大部分美军从伊朗的敌对行动中撤出——认为这是出于政治动机对总统的攻击,会使美国的利益得不到保护。

Democrats contended that members of both parties must protect the role of Congress to determine when and how the country undertakes prolonged combat operations overseas.

民主党人则主张,两党议员都必须维护国会决定国家何时以及如何在海外开展长期作战行动的职权。

The House’s vote was only the first step in a complicated and likely uphill path for the resolution. It now heads to the Senate, which under the war powers law must take it up within roughly two and a half weeks. It does not need a presidential signature, but even if Congress were to clear the measure, its legal force would remain uncertain.

众议院的投票只是该决议复杂且可能极为艰辛的路途上的第一步。它现在已被送交参议院,根据战争权力法,参议院必须在大约两周半内对其进行审议。该决议不需要总统签名,但即使国会通过了该决议,其法律效力依然是不确定的。

While Congress has historically deployed concurrent resolutions to express its position on an issue without requiring presidential approval, the Supreme Court held in 1983 that in order for congressional actions to have binding legal effect, they must go through the standard legislative process, including being presented to the president to be signed into law.

虽然国会历来通过采用共同决议来表达对某项议题的立场,而不需要总统批准,但最高法院在1983年裁定,国会行动若要具备约束力,必须经过标准立法程序,包括提交总统签署生效

That means any attempt to make the directive to withdraw U.S. forces in Iran legally enforceable would almost certainly require Mr. Trump’s signature, or have two-thirds of both chambers vote to override a veto.

这意味着,为撤出驻伊美军的指令赋予法律约束力的任何尝试,几乎肯定需要特朗普的签名,或者需要两院各三分之二的议员投票以推翻总统的否决。

The Senate is pursuing a parallel track. Last month, four Republicans and all but one Democrat voted to advance a separate war powers resolution toward a full floor vote, but that effort faces procedural hurdles of its own.

参议院正在采取平行的推进路线。上个月,四名共和党人和除一名民主党人之外的所有民主党人投票支持推动一项单独的战争权力决议进入全院表决,但该努力本身也面临着程序上的障碍。

But while the practical odds of either measure forcing an end to the war remain slim, the action in both chambers amounted to a notable reproach of the president’s handling of the conflict.

但是,尽管任何一项措施迫使战争结束的实际可能性依然渺茫,但两院的行动实质上是对总统处理这场冲突方式的醒目谴责。

Democrats have argued that even symbolic congressional action could pressure Mr. Trump to alter course by signaling growing bipartisan discomfort with a longer war.

民主党人称,即使是象征性的国会行动,也能发出两党对战争长期化日益感到不安的信号,从而迫使特朗普改变路线。

ANA SWANSON

周二,特朗普政府宣布对59个国家和有27个成员国的欧盟征收10%至12.5%的关税。 Roslan Rahman/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs in February, his administration has been busily working to reconstruct them, exploring legal options that would allow them to build back the tariff wall between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.

自最高法院于2月推翻特朗普总统的全球关税以来,其政府一直忙于重建这些关税,探索法律选项以便在美国经济与世界其他地区之间重新建起壁垒。

Late Tuesday night, the Trump administration unveiled part of its Plan B: a tariff of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on 59 countries and the 27-member European Union. The levies were intended to pressure governments that the United States says have not enacted or enforced laws against trading goods made with forced labor.

周二深夜,特朗普政府公布了其B计划的一部分:对59个国家和有27个成员国的欧盟征收10%至12.5%的关税。这些关税旨在向美国认为未制定或未执行禁止强迫劳动制成商品交易法律的政府施压。

Those tariffs could go into effect as soon as July, and they are unlikely to be the last ones. The administration is working on another slate of tariffs related to countries’ manufacturing practices that will presumably be added to the forced labor ones.

这些关税可能最早于7月生效,而且不太可能是最后一批。政府正在制定另一批与各国制造业实践相关的关税,预计将被加入到强迫劳动关税之中。

The tariffs will be rolled out at a sensitive time for the administration, as voters who are dissatisfied with higher prices from the war with Iran and trade policies prepare to head to the polls. But officials appear intent on patching back together Mr. Trump’s vision for replacing the decades-old global trade order, which he argues has been unfair to American business and left the country with fewer factories and growing trade deficits.

这些关税的推出正值政府处于一个敏感时期,因为对伊朗战争和贸易政策导致物价上涨不满的选民正准备前往投票站。但官员们似乎决心修补特朗普的愿景,即取代已有数十年历史的全球贸易秩序。他认为这一秩序对美国企业不公平,导致美国工厂减少和贸易赤字扩大。

The new tariffs will be imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law that allows the president to issue tariffs to respond to other countries’ trade practices. Legal experts said they are likely to be more durable than the initial law Mr. Trump used to enact tariffs, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

新关税将根据1974年《贸易法》第301条实施,该法律允许总统针对其他国家的贸易做法征收关税。法律专家表示,这些关税可能比特朗普最初用于实施关税的《国际紧急经济权力法》更具持久性。

Mr. Trump used Section 301 in his first term to wage a trade war with China, and the tariffs he put in place have survived multiple court challenges. No administration, however, has ever used the provision in such a sweeping way.

特朗普在其第一任期内曾使用第301条对中国发动贸易战,他实施的关税经受住了多次法庭挑战。然而,任何一届政府都从未以如此广泛的方式使用该条款。

Trade experts have welcomed efforts to end or reduce forced labor, but some have complained that the new tariffs are primarily aimed at finding a way to block foreign products and raise revenue, not ending human rights abuses.

虽然乐见结束或减少强迫劳动的努力,但一些贸易专家抱怨称,新关税主要旨在寻找阻挡外国产品和增加收入的方式,而非结束人权侵犯。

Edward Alden, a trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, called the latest announcement a “transparently cynical effort” and “merely a pretext to maintain tariffs that the administration believes have been effective.”

外交关系委员会贸易专家爱德华·奥尔登称,最新公告“明摆着是一种功利操弄”,“仅仅是为维持政府认为有效的关税而找的借口”。

Mr. Alden said that the Section 301 provision being used was written by Congress as a mechanism to try to impel countries to change practices that were harming U.S. commerce. Lawmakers believed tariffs should be used as a tool to persuade countries to change their practices, with higher tariffs reserved for those with the more harmful practices.

奥尔登表示,国会制定第301条款的目的是作为一种机制,促使各国改变损害美国商业的做法。立法者认为,关税应作为说服各国改变做法的工具,对那些做法危害更大的国家则施以更高关税。

Yet the administration’s latest action made little effort to set tariff rates at different levels depending on the severity of violations. The Section 301 investigation on forced labor also excluded some smaller countries where the U.S. government has identified slavery, human trafficking or forced labor, like Afghanistan, Belarus, Myanmar and Mauritania.

然而,政府最新行动几乎没有努力根据违规严重程度设定不同关税税率。第301条对强迫劳动的调查还排除了一些美国政府已认定存在蓄奴、人口贩运或强迫劳动的较小国家,例如阿富汗、白俄罗斯、缅甸毛里塔尼亚

Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, has also made clear that he believed tariffs were working and intended to keep them in place, Mr. Alden said.

奥尔登说,美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔已经明确表示,他相信关税正在发挥作用,并打算继续维持这些关税。

“That shows no serious effort by the administration to force a change in those practices,” he said. “Sometimes you just have to call a spade a spade.”

“这表明政府并非真心想努力改变这些做法,”他说。“有时候你必须实话实说。”

Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, said the administration had switched its justification for broad tariffs onto a “morally and perhaps also legally more defensible ground.” But he pointed out that the Trump administration’s apparent concerns about forced labor in other countries seemed inconsistent with domestic stances that were not friendly toward workers and unions.

康奈尔大学贸易政策教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示,政府已将其广泛关税的理由切换到“在道德上、或许也在法律上更站得住脚的理由”。但他指出,特朗普政府对其他国家强迫劳动的明显关切,与其在国内对工人和工会并不友好的立场似乎不一致。

“While the objective of this round of tariffs seems laudable, it’s difficult to escape the feeling that the administration is opportunistically exploiting whatever rationale works legally in wielding tariffs as a broad economic and geopolitical tool,” he added.

“虽然这一轮关税的目标看似值得称赞,但很难摆脱这样一种感觉,即政府正在伺机利用任何在法律上可行的理由,将关税作为广泛的经济和地缘政治工具,”他补充道。

Others praised the move. Representative Jason Smith of Missouri, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in a statement that many U.S. trading partners “fall short of even basic cooperation with the United States on this issue,” adding, “very few trading partners even have laws on the books to prohibit trade in goods made with forced labor.”

还有一些人则赞扬这一举措。密苏里州众议员、众议院筹款委员会主席贾森·史密斯在一份声明中表示,许多美国贸易伙伴“在这一问题上与美国连起码的合作都没有”,而且“就禁止贸易强迫劳动制成商品制定了法律的国家少之又少”。

The new measures could be the final act for the administration after a chaotic year of trying to realize Mr. Trump’s vision for trade. On what he labeled “Liberation Day” last year, Mr. Trump walked into the White House Rose Garden and announced double-digit tariffs on nearly all trading partners, a plan that he claimed would balance out unfair practices in other countries and make trade flows more reciprocal.

新措施可能是政府在经历混乱的一年试图实现特朗普贸易愿景后的最终行动。在去年他所称的“解放日”,特朗普走进白宫玫瑰园,宣布对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收两位数关税,他声称该计划将平衡其他国家的不公平做法,并使贸易流动更加互惠。

Throughout last year and early into this year, the administration adjusted those rates as it negotiated trade agreements, leaving tariffs on most of the world’s countries between 10 and 50 percent.

去年全年及今年年初,政府在谈判贸易协定时调整了这些税率,使世界上大多数国家的关税维持在10%至50%之间。

But that system was demolished in February, when the Supreme Court ruled that Mr. Trump had exceeded his authority in using an international economic emergency law to impose those tariffs.

但该体系在2月被摧毁,当时最高法院裁定,特朗普在使用国际经济紧急状态法律实施这些关税时超出了其权限。

The Trump administration responded by levying a 10 percent global tariff based on balance of payments issues. That was also struck down by a trade court, though the tariff has been left in place pending appeal. It is set to expire in July regardless, paving the way for the new levies.

特朗普政府随后基于国际收支问题征收10%的全球关税。该关税也被贸易法院推翻,尽管在上诉期间仍维持生效。它无论如何都将在7月到期,为新关税铺平道路。

The Section 301 investigation on forced labor targets more than 80 countries that together represent more than 99 percent of U.S. imports. In a 98-page report issued Tuesday, the trade representative’s office laid out its case on countries varying from Egypt to Canada.

关于强迫劳动的第301条调查针对80多个国家,这些国家合计占美国进口的99%以上。在周二发布的98页报告中,贸易代表办公室列出了从埃及到加拿大的各国情况。

The report said a vast majority of foreign countries had failed to put in place any restrictions against importing goods made with forced labor. It said that Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico and Pakistan had introduced some laws related to the issue but were failing to adequately enforce them.

报告称,美国以外的大多数国家未能针对进口强迫劳动制成商品制定任何限制。它指出,加拿大、厄瓜多尔、欧盟、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和巴基斯坦引入了一些相关法律,但未能充分执行。

The United States is unique in having laws against the trade of goods made with forced labor, though some critics say the Trump administration has not been doing enough to enforce its own forced labor laws. The United States has a nearly century-old ban on imports made with forced, convict or indentured labor, as well as a 2021 law that restricts any imports from Xinjiang, a far-western region of China, unless they can be shown to be free of forced labor.

美国在禁止贸易强迫劳动制成商品方面独一无二,尽管一些批评者表示,特朗普政府自己在执行强迫劳动法律方面做得不够。美国有一项近百年历史的禁令,禁止进口由强迫劳动、囚犯劳工或契约劳动制成的商品,此外还有2021年的一项法律,限制来自中国新疆地区的任何进口,除非能证明其不含强迫劳动。

Trump officials pushed to include a ban on the import of forced labor goods in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was negotiated during Mr. Trump’s first term. And in the past year, the trade agreements the administration negotiated with Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan have included commitments to prohibit the import of such goods.

特朗普官员推动在第一任期谈判达成的《美墨加协定》中纳入禁止进口强迫劳动商品的内容。在过去一年中,政府与阿根廷、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、厄瓜多尔、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和台湾谈判达成的贸易协定中,都包含禁止进口此类商品的承诺。

But the Trump administration has issued only a handful of new orders banning imports from specific companies over the use of forced labor. Two of the so-called “withhold release orders” the administration has issued to ban such imports were against companies in Serbia and Mauritius. Neither is included in the list of countries that will be subject to forced labor tariffs.

但特朗普政府仅发布了少数几项新命令,禁止从特定公司进口使用强迫劳动的产品。政府已发布的所谓“暂扣放行令”中,有两项针对塞尔维亚和毛里求斯的公司。这两个国家均未被列入将受强迫劳动关税影响的国家名单。

The report issued by the Trump administration Tuesday also calls out countries like Poland and Spain for importing rice from Burma and tobacco from Malawi that are made with forced labor, but does not impose tariffs on Burma or Malawi.

特朗普政府周二发布的报告还点名波兰和西班牙等国进口了缅甸的大米和马拉维的烟草——这些产品由强迫劳动制成——但并未对缅甸或马拉维征收关税。

Some trade analysts said the Trump administration may have chosen a rationale with bipartisan support in an effort to make its tariffs more politically durable. Democrats and labor unions have also fought for tougher rules against forced labor, and could be reluctant to revoke tariffs based on the issue. The strategy also allows the administration to hit nearly all major trading partners with tariffs in one stroke, as no other countries have as advanced laws as the United States does.

一些贸易分析师表示,特朗普政府可能选择了一个获得两党支持的理由,以使关税在政治上更具持久性。民主党人和工会也一直争取更严格的反对强迫劳动规则,可能不愿撤销基于这一问题的关税。该策略还允许政府一举对几乎所有主要贸易伙伴征收关税,因为没有其他国家拥有像美国这样先进的法律。

Ryan Majerus, a trade lawyer at King & Spalding, said it looked “curious” that new tariff rates were similar to those the administration had imposed before, he added that the brilliance in the solution was that “the forced labor issue is somewhat of concern to everyone.” The administration could be sued again for these tariffs, but he thought a court would be unlikely to overturn them.

金和斯伯丁律师事务所贸易律师瑞安·马杰鲁斯表示,新关税的税率与政府之前实施的相似,这看起来“很奇怪”,他补充说,该解决方案的巧妙之处在于“强迫劳动问题多少让每个人都感到关切”。政府可能再次因这些关税被起诉,但他认为法院不太可能推翻它们。

“It’s pretty hard to argue against the notion that countries shouldn’t have a forced labor law or that they shouldn’t effectively enforce it,” he said.

“让各国拥有强迫劳动法律或应该有效执行它,这是个很难辩驳的想法,”他说。

RYAN MAC

上个月,SpaceX的“星舰”火箭在得克萨斯州的星港基地试飞升空。 Eric Gay/Associated Press

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket maker and artificial intelligence company, set a price for its initial public offering on Wednesday of $135, which would value it at $1.77 trillion and crown it the largest I.P.O. ever.

埃隆·马斯克的火箭制造与人工智能公司——美国太空探索技术公司(SpaceX)周三将其首次公开募股的价格定为每股135美元,这意味着公司估值将达到1.77万亿美元,成为有史以来规模最大的IPO。

At that price, SpaceX would raise $74.4 billion from the offering, and its valuation would be more than 40 percent higher than the $1.25 trillion that it valued itself at in February. The current I.P.O. record is held by Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, which was valued at $1.7 trillion and raised more than $29 billion when it went public in 2019.

按此价格,SpaceX将通过此次发行筹集744亿美元,估值将比2月份该公司自己估值的1.25万亿美元高出40%以上。目前的IPO纪录由沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司沙特阿美保持,该公司在2019年上市时估值为1.7万亿美元,募资逾290亿美元。

Most companies that go public set a preliminary price range for their stock offering before settling on a final number in case investor demand for their shares changes. But Mr. Musk and SpaceX sidestepped that and simply declared one price for investors. SpaceX could still change that price but is not expected to do so. It is likely to begin trading on the Nasdaq next week under the ticker symbol SPCX.

多数公司上市前会先设定初步定价区间,以便视投资者认购意愿调整最终发行价。但马斯克与SpaceX跳过了这一步,直接向投资者公布了一个价格。SpaceX仍可调整此价格,但预计不会这样做。该公司可能于下周在纳斯达克挂牌交易,股票代码为SPCX。

At $74.4 billion raised, SpaceX’s I.P.O. would be just about “more than every U.S. I.P.O. combined in the last two years,” said Matthew Kennedy, a senior I.P.O. market strategist at Renaissance Capital.

文艺复兴资本的IPO市场策略师马修·肯尼迪表示,按募集资金744亿美元计算,SpaceX的IPO规模“几乎超过了过去两年美国所有IPO总和”。

A SpaceX spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

SpaceX的发言人未回应置评请求。

SpaceX’s I.P.O. is a bellwether for other expected offerings that are set to be enormous, including from OpenAI and Anthropic, the artificial intelligence companies. Anthropic confidentially filed to go public on Monday, and OpenAI is expected to file in the coming weeks. Both start-ups have valuations approaching $1 trillion. The three offerings could unleash an avalanche of wealth across Silicon Valley and Wall Street, creating new corporate titans in the process.

SpaceX的IPO是一系列预期规模同样巨大的上市项目的风向标,其中包括人工智能公司OpenAI和Anthropic。Anthropic已于周一秘密提交了上市申请,OpenAI预计将在未来数周内提交。这两家初创公司的估值均接近1万亿美元。这三宗上市交易可能会在硅谷和华尔街开启财富的闸门,并在此过程中造就新的企业巨头。

Among the biggest winners would be Mr. Musk, 54, who is already the world’s richest man. At $135 a share, the roughly 50 percent stake in SpaceX that he controls would be worth just over $752 billion. (Mr. Musk cannot sell some of the SpaceX shares he controls until the company hits various operational milestones, according to the firm’s filings.)

其中最大的赢家将是54岁的马斯克,他目前已经是世界首富。按每股135美元计算,他控制的SpaceX约50%的股份价值将略超7520亿美元。(根据公司文件,在SpaceX达到若干运营目标之前,马斯克无法出售所持部分股份。)

A large increase in the company’s share price in its first days of trading could turn Mr. Musk into the world’s first trillionaire.

如果该公司股票在上市交易的头几天大幅上涨,马斯克可能会成为全球首位万亿美元富翁。

Mr. Musk, who founded SpaceX in 2002, has remade the space race with partly reusable rockets and transformed communication with the company’s satellite internet service, Starlink. In February, SpaceX bought his A.I. company, xAI, which owned his social media platform, X, creating a conglomerate of the tech billionaire’s various interests. Mr. Musk separately runs the electric carmaker Tesla, as well as other companies.

马斯克于2002年创立了SpaceX,凭借可部分重复使用的火箭重塑了太空竞赛格局,并通过公司的卫星互联网服务“星链”改变了通信方式。今年2月,SpaceX收购了他的人工智能公司xAI,后者同时持有他的社交媒体平台X,从而将这位科技亿万富翁的各种兴趣整合成了一个企业集团。马斯克还分别经营着电动汽车制造商特斯拉以及其他公司。

03biz spacex musk tkvz master1050埃隆·马斯克于2002年创立了SpaceX。

He has used SpaceX as a kind of piggy bank over the last two decades, securing loans from the company to himself and relying on the firm to shore up several troubled businesses in his orbit. That was enabled partly because of Mr. Musk’s iron grip on SpaceX. He controls more than 85 percent of its shareholder votes because of a class of super-voting shares, according to the company’s filings.

过去二十年间,马斯克将SpaceX当作某种意义上的“小金库”——通过该公司向自己提供贷款,并依赖它帮助其商业版图中一些陷入困境的企业渡过难关。这在很大程度上得益于马斯克对SpaceX的铁腕掌控。根据公司文件,由于持有一类超级投票权股份,他控制了公司超过85%的股东投票权。

SpaceX, which has contracts with NASA and other federal agencies, had long been something of a financial mystery. Last month, the company revealed a full picture of its financial health for the first time in an I.P.O. prospectus. The company reported that it had lost more than $4.9 billion last year, compared with a $791 million profit in 2024 because of increased expenditures on A.I. Revenue was $18.7 billion last year, up 33 percent from the previous year.

SpaceX坐拥美国国家航空航天局及其他联邦机构的合同,其财务状况长期以来一直是个谜。上个月,该公司在IPO招股说明书中首次全面披露了财务状况。报告显示,公司去年亏损逾49亿美元,而2024年曾实现7.91亿美元盈利,亏损扩大源于人工智能支出大幅增加。去年营收为187亿美元,同比增长33%。

The company plans to use the money it raises from its I.P.O. to fund various moonshots, including Mr. Musk’s goals of putting A.I. data centers into orbit, building a lunar factory and eventually sending humans to Mars.

公司计划将IPO募集的资金用于多个雄心勃勃的项目,包括实现马斯克将人工智能数据中心送入轨道、建设月球工厂以及最终将人类送往火星的目标。

(The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft in 2023, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied those claims.)

(《纽约时报》于2023年起诉OpenAI和微软,指控其人工智能系统侵犯了新闻内容版权。两家公司均否认上述指控。)

Nicolas Owens, an equity researcher with the investment research firm Morningstar, said that while SpaceX’s I.P.O. was enormous, he would not be surprised if “the records are broken more than once.” Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have become larger than ever before going public.

投资研究公司晨星的股票研究员尼古拉斯·欧文斯表示,尽管SpaceX的IPO规模巨大,但如果“未来纪录被再次打破”,他也不会感到意外。像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的公司在上市前就已经成长到前所未有的规模。

“A trillion-dollar market capitalization for a company going public used to be unheard-of,” he said, using a term to describe a company’s valuation. “Now it seems normal.”

“一家公司上市时拥有万亿美元的市值过去是闻所未闻的,”他在描述公司估值时表示。“如今这似乎已成寻常。”

CATIE EDMONDSON

2021年,中国新疆,工人正在装载棉花。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

President Trump has proposed tariffs of at least 10 percent on 60 American trading partners, his most aggressive effort yet to enact new import duties after the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s sweeping tariffs.

特朗普总统提议对60个美国贸易伙伴征收至少10%的关税,这是自最高法院推翻政府大规模关税措施以来,他提出的最激进的新进口税计划。

Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said on Tuesday night that investigations found that the 59 countries, along with the 27-nation European Union, had failed to enact or effectively enforce laws prohibiting imports made with forced labor.

美国贸易代表詹姆森·格里尔周二晚间表示,调查发现59个国家以及包括27国的欧盟未能制定或有效执行禁止进口强迫劳动产品的法律。

The administration, invoking a legal provision known as Section 301, proposed a 12.5 percent duty on imports from countries including China, Brazil, South Korea, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Goods from the European Union, Canada and Mexico would face 10 percent import taxes.

政府援引名为“301条款”的法律规定,提议对中国、巴西、韩国、瑞士和英国等国进口商品征收12.5%的关税。来自欧盟、加拿大和墨西哥的商品将面临10%的进口税。

Mr. Trump has signaled he intends to use Section 301 to rebuild his tariff agenda after the Supreme Court ruled that he exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose duties without congressional approval.

特朗普已表示,他打算利用301条款重建其关税议程,此前最高法院裁定,他未经国会批准便使用《国际紧急经济权力法》(简称IEEPA)征收关税的行为超出了其权限。

After the court struck down those tariffs, Mr. Trump sought to revive them partially with a global 10 percent duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a never-before-used provision. A trade court ruled in May that the move violated the law. The tariffs were initially scheduled to expire at the end of July.

在法院推翻那些关税后,特朗普试图通过1974年《贸易法》第122条下的全球10%关税部分恢复原措施,该条款此前从未被使用过。一家贸易法院于5月裁定此举违法。这些关税最初定于7月底到期。

Mr. Greer’s office has also opened an investigation into what the Trump administration has described as “excess manufacturing capacity” among 16 of America’s largest trading partners.

格里尔的办公室还启动了一项调查,针对特朗普政府所称的美国16个最大贸易伙伴“制造产能过剩”问题。

“Following the Supreme Court overturning the IEEPA tariffs, a legal basis was needed to rebuild Trump’s tariff wall, and this was a convenient way to do so,” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm.

“在最高法院推翻IEEPA关税之后,需要一个法律基础来重建特朗普的关税壁垒,而这是一种便捷的方式,”地缘政治咨询公司APAC Advisors首席执行官史蒂夫·奥昆表示。

Mr. Okun added: “Tariffs are here to stay under the Trump administration.”

此外奥昆还说:“在特朗普政府任内,关税将长期存在。”

Mr. Greer’s office is scheduled to hold hearings on July 7 about the proposed tariffs, which would take effect sometime after that.

格里尔的办公室定于7月7日就拟议关税举行听证会,这些关税将在听证会后某个时间生效。

“The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable,” Mr. Greer said in a statement. “This creates a dynamic where American workers are forced to compete globally on an unlevel playing field.”

“我们最重要的贸易伙伴未能解决强迫劳动产品进口的问题,这是不可接受的,”格里尔在一份声明中表示。“这造成了一种局面,让美国工人不得不在全球不公平的竞争环境中竞争。”

Some products would be exempt from the tariffs, including beef, bananas, coffee, steel and a slate of critical minerals.

部分产品将免于被征收关税,包括牛肉、香蕉、咖啡、钢铁以及一系列关键矿产。

The move is likely to anger some of the United States’ closest trading partners, whose relations with Washington have been whipsawed by contentious negotiations and the Supreme Court’s ruling in February.

此举很可能激怒美国一些最亲密的贸易伙伴,它们与美国的关系已经因充满分歧的谈判和最高法院2月的裁决而起伏不定。

In the days after Mr. Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in Beijing last month, the Chinese government sought to draw a line under trade tensions, saying both sides had agreed not to raise tariffs further and warning that it could retaliate if Washington did so again.

上个月特朗普在北京与习近平主席会晤后的几天里,中国政府试图为贸易紧张局势画上句号,称双方已同意不再进一步提高关税,并警告如果华盛顿再次加征关税,中方可能进行反制。

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, told reporters on Wednesday that it opposed unilateral tariff measures in all forms. “Tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of any party,” she said.

中国外交部发言人毛宁周三对记者表示,中方反对一切形式的单边关税措施。“关税战、贸易战不符合任何一方的利益,”她说。

Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, said the European Union is “fully committed” to eliminating goods made with forced labor from global supply chains and had already entered a joint agreement with the United States to work together to protect labor rights.

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示,欧盟“全心致力于”将强迫劳动产品从全球供应链中清除,并已与美国达成一项联合协议,共同努力保护劳工权利。

Augustine Lo, a trade attorney at Dorsey & Whitney, a law firm, noted that the proposed duties “closely track the trade deals that the Trump administration made with certain countries before the court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs.”

多尔西·惠特尼律师事务所贸易律师奥古斯丁·洛指出,拟议的关税“与特朗普政府在法院宣布IEEPA关税无效之前与某些国家达成的贸易协议密切相关”。

In a 98-page report released with the proposal, Mr. Greer’s office detailed what it described as the failures of the countries to adequately address goods produced with forced labor.

在与提案一同发布的98页报告中,格里尔的办公室详细说明了这些国家在妥善处理强迫劳动产品问题上的失职。

The report highlighted the prevalence of forced labor involving Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in the production of cotton and polysilicon in China’s western Xinjiang region. Researchers have cited evidence of forced labor, mass detentions and the incarceration of Muslim ethnic groups, including Uyghurs, in re-education camps there.

报告重点指出了维吾尔人和其他少数民族在中国西部新疆地区棉花和多晶硅生产中涉及的强迫劳动问题。研究人员提供了强迫劳动、大规模拘留以及穆斯林少数民族(包括维吾尔人)被关进再教育营的证据。

The Chinese government denied the presence of any forced labor in its supply chains. Ms. Mao said there was “no such thing as forced labor in China,” and that Beijing opposed “using this as pretext for political manipulation.”

中国政府否认其供应链中存在任何强迫劳动。毛宁表示,中国“不存在所谓‘强迫劳动’”,北京反对“以此为借口搞政治操弄”。

Trump administration officials justified the proposed 10 percent tariff on the European Union by arguing that the bloc’s recently adopted regulation banning imports made with forced labor will not take effect until the end of 2027.

特朗普政府官员为对欧盟征收10%关税的提议辩护,理由是欧盟最近通过的禁止进口强迫劳动产品的法规要到2027年底才生效。

“Because the European Union cannot enforce its measure until that date, it follows that it cannot do so ‘effectively’ until then,” the report said.

“由于欧盟在该日期之前无法执行其措施,因此可以推断在此之前它无法‘有效’执行,”报告称。

Some justifications are likely to even further frustrate trade allies. The report pointed to a surge in Brazilian beef exports to China. Brazil, a major supplier of beef to China, deepened its trade ties with Beijing after American beef became a casualty of Mr. Trump’s trade war.

一些理由可能会进一步激怒贸易盟友。报告指出巴西对华牛肉出口激增。在美国牛肉因特朗普的贸易战受损后,作为中国主要牛肉供应国的巴西深化了与北京的贸易联系。

The report suggested that China’s willingness to buy Brazilian beef, likely produced with forced labor had “distorted competition” by creating a cost advantage.

报告暗示,中国愿意购买很可能使用强迫劳动生产的巴西牛肉,通过创造成本优势“扭曲了竞争”。

“Although other factors, such as the size of the U.S. beef herd, may have also influenced competition between beef from the United States and Brazil," it said. “Nevertheless with a forced labor import prohibition, the United States would likely have experienced greater sales, revenues, and exports of beef to China, all else equal.”

“其他因素,例如美国牛群规模,也可能影响美国与巴西牛肉之间的竞争,”报告称。“然而,在存在强迫劳动进口禁令的情况下,假如其它条件不变,美国对华牛肉销售、收入和出口很可能都会增加。”

DANIEL WAITE PENNY

The average human sperm cell is around 50 microns long, roughly the diameter of a hair or the thickness of a heavy-duty plastic bag. Under a microscope, amid a galaxy of proteins, sugars, dust and dead cells, they look like broken satellites, spinning crazily without direction. The motion is generated by the sperm cell’s long flagellum, which can propel it the length of its body every second. That’s under ideal conditions, when a man has been exercising and eating clean, abstaining from alcohol and cigarettes, steering clear of saunas and any endocrine-disrupting chemicals and, certainly, avoiding androgenic steroids.

人类精子细胞的平均长度约为50微米,大致相当于一根头发的直径或者厚塑料袋的厚度。在显微镜下,在蛋白质、糖类、灰尘和死细胞组成的“星系”中,它们看起来就像失控的卫星,毫无方向地疯狂旋转。这种运动由精子细胞长长的鞭毛驱动,它每秒能推动精子前进一个相当于自身长度的距离。但这只是在理想状态下——即男性坚持锻炼、饮食健康、戒烟戒酒、远离桑拿和任何内分泌干扰化学物质,当然还要绝对避免使用雄性激素类类固醇。

So when Felix van der Heiden and Manu Bos examined their samples during a March visit to the San Francisco offices of the biotech start-up Sperm Racing, they were shocked by what they found. To the naked eye, they looked like robust young men, tall and broad-shouldered, with feline eyes and complexions like a Ken doll’s. Back in the Netherlands, Bos had been a sponsored skateboarder and was now an influencer; van der Heiden, under the handle Zeta, had parlayed his handsome face and washboard abs into a career as a looksmaxxer, with over 700,000 followers on TikTok. There was just one problem.

因此,当菲利克斯·范德海登和马努·博斯3月造访位于旧金山的生物科技初创公司“精子竞速”办公室检查自己的精子样本时,他们对所见结果感到震惊。外表看来,他们是健壮的年轻人,身材高大,肩膀宽阔,长着猫一样的眼睛,肤色就像肯娃娃。在家乡荷兰,博斯曾是一名获得赞助的滑板运动员,如今是一名网红;网名Zeta的范德海登则凭借英俊的面庞和搓衣板般的腹肌成为一名专注颜值提升的博主,在TikTok上拥有超过70万名粉丝。然而,有一个问题。

“ His sperm — like 60 percent is dead,” van der Heiden said. “And for me, everything’s dead. Just rotten inside.”

“他的精子——大概有60%是死的,”范德海登说,“而我呢,全军覆没。里面已经烂透了。”

It wasn’t a total surprise, van der Heiden admitted. He’d been doing testosterone replacement therapy and dabbling in selective androgen and estrogen receptor modulators. His bloodwork had been showing low levels of luteinizing hormone, or LH, which tells the testicles to produce testosterone and, indirectly, sperm. If he wanted to have children, he would have to start injecting a peptide called human chorionic gonadotropin, or hCG, which mimics LH, to get his testes back online.

范德海登承认,这倒也不是完全出乎意料。他一直在进行睾酮替代疗法,并尝试选择性雄激素和雌激素受体调节剂。他的血液检查一直显示促黄体生成素水平较低,这种激素负责指示睾丸产生睾酮,并间接产生精子。如果他想生孩子,就必须开始注射一种叫做人绒毛膜促性腺激素的肽类物质(它能模仿促黄体生成素的功能),让他的睾丸重新恢复功能。

They’d planned on coming to San Francisco and doing a sperm race, hoping to make — what else — video content for their YouTube channel, Dutch Brahs.

他们原本计划来旧金山进行一场精子竞赛,希望能为他们的YouTube频道“Dutch Brahs”制作——还能是什么呢——视频内容。

Currently valued at $50 million, Sperm Racing is a start-up devoted to, well, racing human sperm through an artificial reproductive system. At their office and across the country, they’ve hosted matches with college students, streamers and influencers — all in the name of raising awareness about male infertility. In the last decade, some studies have found that sperm quality across the developed world has dropped precipitously. On average, young men today produce half as much sperm as men of their grandfathers’ generation. There are many competing explanations for this phenomenon, but one thing scientists can agree on is that sperm quality, and specifically sperm motility — that is, how fast they swim and for how long — is a decent proxy for male health. Healthy men make healthy sperm. Healthy sperm swim faster. And the fastest sperm wins.

精子竞速目前估值为5000万美元,这家初创公司致力于——没错,让人类精子在人工生殖系统中赛跑。在他们的办公室以及全国各地,他们为大学生、主播和网红主持了多场比赛,名义是为了提高人们对男性不育症的认识。在过去十年里,一些研究发现,发达国家男性的精子质量急剧下降。平均而言,当今年轻男性产生的精子数量只有他们祖父那一代的一半。关于这种现象有许多相互矛盾的解释,但科学家们能够达成共识的一点是:精子质量——特别是精子活力(也就是精子游动的速度和游动持续时间)是衡量男性健康的一个很好的指标。健康的男性产生健康的精子。健康的精子游得更快。而游得最快的精子就能获胜。

“We’re turning health into a competition,” one of Sperm Racing’s founders, an 18-year-old named Eric Zhu, told me.

“我们在把健康变成一场竞赛,”精子竞速的创始人之一、18岁的埃里克·朱告诉我。

Van der Heiden’s languid sperm were an extreme example of the problem the company aims to highlight. Any young man’s social media feeds will be awash in contradictory and potentially bad advice on improving health. In a sense, Sperm Racing aims to cut through that noise by reducing male vitality down to its absolute essence.

范德海登那些行动迟缓的精子正是该公司旨在揭示的问题的一个极端例子。任何年轻男性的社交媒体动态中,都有可能充斥着相互矛盾、甚至可能有害的健康建议。从某种意义上说,精子竞速旨在将男性的生命力还原为最本质的层面,从而穿透这些嘈杂的噪音。

埃里克·朱,精子竞速的联合创始人。 Maggie Shannon for The New York Times

Of course, the company also adds to that noise. Sperm Racing employees spend much of their time turning the sperm races into video content, which ideally steers customers toward the company’s revenue-generating businesses.

当然,这家公司本身也在助长这样的噪音。精子竞速的员工花了大量时间将精子比赛制作成视频内容,理想情况下,这些内容能引导客户转向公司的创收业务。

Sperm Racing seems to represent the final phase of a cultural transformation taking place in the tech industry. In the ’10s, Silicon Valley fostered a rapacious and disruptive business culture that nevertheless spoke in (and seemed to believe in) progressive platitudes. The ’20s have proved quite different: The Valley has embraced an openly masculine and competitive posture — or at least it wants to project that image. And here in one start-up was its most bluntly literal expression.

精子竞速似乎代表了科技行业目前文化转型的最后阶段。在2010年代,硅谷孕育了一种贪婪且具有破坏性的商业文化,但它依然用进步派的陈词滥调来包装自己(而且似乎也相信这些)。2020年代则被证明截然不同:硅谷已经接受了一种公开的男性化和竞争性的姿态——或者至少它希望展现出这种形象。而这家初创公司就是这种姿态最直白、最直接的体现。

I met van der Heiden and Bos during the week I spent at Sperm Racing headquarters in San Francisco. My plan had been to follow the founders around as they prepared for a big race to be held at the Chase Center. But I soon learned that the event wouldn’t be happening. At an all-hands meeting, one of the company’s founders, Shane Fan, made an announcement. From that day on, Sperm Racing would be dedicated to producing a World Cup. Never mind one big race in front of a live audience — they would run dozens of them.

在旧金山精子竞速总部度过的那一周里,我遇到了范德海登和博斯。我的计划原本是跟拍创始人,记录他们如何筹备即将在大通中心举行的一场大型比赛。但我很快得知,这场活动不会举行了。在一次全体员工会议上,公司创始人之一谢恩·范(音)宣布了一项决定:从那天起,精子竞速将致力于举办一场世界杯赛事。不再是举办一场大型现场比赛——他们要办几十场。

Tragically, the world may never see all of these showdowns. Before I could file this article, the company would pivot again.

遗憾的是,世界可能永远看不到所有的这些对决了。在我提交这篇文章之前,这家公司又将再次转型。

31mag spermracing jumbo
参赛者穿过的比赛服成为精子竞速总部的一件装饰。 Maggie Shannon for The New York Times

IT WAS ZHU’S IDEA to race sperm. The son of Chinese immigrants, he grew up in small-town Indiana, though he talks with the nasal accent and 1.5x speed of the Bay Area. During the pandemic, Zhu got his first computer, and within a few months had taught himself the basics of coding. He started a software-as-a-service business called Aviato. (It was named after a fictional start-up from the TV series “Silicon Valley.”) By the age of 15, he had raised $2.3 million, and managed to get himself expelled from high school for taking too many business calls from the bathroom. Zhu moved to San Francisco and, in his telling, fell in with a circle of longevity enthusiasts who competitively tracked their sperm counts.

让精子赛跑是埃里克·朱的主意。他是中国移民的儿子,在印第安纳州的一个小镇长大,尽管他说话带着湾区特有的鼻音和1.5倍的语速。在疫情期间,埃里克·朱得到了他的第一台电脑,并在几个月内自学了编程基础。他创办了一家名为Aviato的软件即服公司。(公司的名字来源于电视剧《硅谷》中一家虚构的初创公司。)到15岁时,他已经筹集了230万美元,而且因为在洗手间接了太多商务电话被高中开除。埃里克·朱搬到了旧金山,据他所说,他混入了一个长寿爱好者的圈子,他们热衷于追踪比较精子数量。

In 2024, one of Aviato’s early investors, Joe Lonsdale, persuaded Zhu to enroll at the University of Austin, which was founded in 2021 by Lonsdale and other prominent conservative donors. One weekend during his time there, Zhu says, he was flown to New York with a group of other students for a meeting with a secretive billionaire donor to the school. When the donor asked Zhu to pitch his craziest business idea, he recalled those sperm-obsessed longevity guys from San Francisco. He laid out a vision for a company that would help men track their health by racing sperm. The donor encouraged Zhu to make it a reality.

2024年,Aviato的早期投资者之一乔·朗斯代尔说服埃里克·朱进入奥斯汀大学就读,该大学由朗斯代尔和其他知名保守派捐献者于2021年创立。埃里克·朱说,在校期间的一个周末,他和其他一群学生被送到纽约,与该校一位神秘的亿万富翁捐助者会面。这位捐助者要求埃里克·朱推销自己最疯狂的商业想法,于是他回想起旧金山那些痴迷精子的长寿研究者。他描绘了一家公司的愿景:通过让精子竞速来帮助男性追踪自己的健康状况。这位捐献者鼓励埃里克·朱把这个想法变成现实。

Zhu reached out to his friend Nick Small, a 16-year-old prodigy of crypto arbitrage, who was well connected in the New York tech scene. Fan joined them, and over the course of an all-nighter at the Paramount Hotel, the three conceived of Sperm Racing and wrote up a manifesto.

埃里克·朱联系了朋友尼克·斯莫尔,一位16岁的加密货币套利神童,在纽约科技圈拥有良好人脉。谢恩·范也加入了他们,在派拉蒙酒店熬了一个通宵后,三人构思出了“精子竞速”,并起草了一份宣言。

By late 2024, the three had raised over $1 million from investors led by the hedge fund and venture capital firm Karatage, along with Figment Capital and Karman Ventures.

到2024年底,三人已经从对冲基金兼风险投资公司Karatage为首的投资者那里筹集了超过100万美元,跟投的还有Figment Capital和Karman Ventures。

Racing sperm does involve some actual science. And for that, the company relied on the expertise of Rishi Kanaparti, who led the company’s biology department and was, improbably, 17. Before joining Sperm Racing, Kanaparti was dual-enrolled at his Atlanta high school and Georgia State. When he saw for himself that the science behind sperm racing was legitimately interesting, he left his program in Georgia and moved to San Francisco.

精子竞速确实涉及一些真正的科学。为此,该公司依靠里希·卡纳帕提的专业知识,他领导着公司的生物部门,而且令人难以置信的是,他只有17岁。在加入精子竞速之前,卡纳帕提在亚特兰大的高中和佐治亚州立大学同时注册学习。当他亲眼看到精子竞速背后的科学确实非常有趣时,他退出了在佐治亚州的项目,搬到了旧金山。

31mag spermracing 03 master1050精子竞速公司的首席技术官泰贾斯夫·巴蒂亚​用显微镜检查样本。

The process borrows from well-studied I.V.F. technology, Kanaparti explained. First, the team purifies the semen samples in a centrifuge. Then they pipette the sperm into two parallel 3,800-micron (3.8-millimeter) microfluidic racetracks etched into silicone chips. These chips are fabricated from molds in an ad hoc clean room set up next to the first-floor bathroom.

卡纳帕提解释说,这个过程借鉴了研究成熟的体外受精技术。首先,团队在离心机中纯化精液样本。然后,他们用移液管将精子注入刻在硅片上的两条平行的3800微米(3.8毫米)微流体跑道中。这些硅片是在一楼洗手间旁边设立的一个临时无尘室里,通过模具制造出来的。

The environment within the racetracks is designed to emulate the human reproductive system. In a process known as rheotaxis, the sperm move against a steady flow of warm fluid that mimics cervical mucus. Like salmon swimming upstream, they cling to the walls of the track to avoid the central current and maintain their sense of direction. On Kanaparti’s tracks, however, the sperm encounter unnatural obstacles: tight sections, sharp corners and pillars that separate the best from the rest.

跑道内的环境被设计成模拟人类生殖系统。在一种被称为“趋流性”的过程中,精子逆着模拟宫颈黏液的温暖稳定液流游动。就像逆流而上的鲑鱼一样,它们紧贴跑道壁以避开中心水流,并保持方向感。然而,在卡纳帕提设计的跑道上,精子会遇到非自然的障碍物:狭窄的路段、急转弯和柱子,这些都是为了将最优秀的精子与普通精子区分开来。

Watching the raw footage from the microscope camera, it’s difficult to tell what’s going on. The sperm and the track are both translucent, with bubbles, particles and dust adding to the visual chaos. To identify the leaders of the pack, a computer vision system applies object detection software to the raw data, the same way a traffic camera picks out speeding cars. This data is then put through 3-D generation software, which transforms it into the slickly produced footage the audience sees onscreen. In the final cut, two or more competitors’ sperm are shown in different colors jostling for position on the same track. The camera follows the action from overhead, with occasional close-ups at crucial moments of suspense.

观看显微镜相机拍摄的原始画面,很难分辨出到底发生了什么。精子和跑道都是半透明的,气泡、颗粒和灰尘更增加了视觉上的混乱。为了识别领跑者,计算机视觉系统运用物体检测软件对原始数据进行分析,就像交通摄像头挑选出超速行驶的汽车一样。然后,这些数据会被输入3D生成软件,将其转化为观众在屏幕上看到的精美画面。在最终的剪辑中,两名或多名参赛者的精子以不同的颜色显示,在同一条赛道上争夺位置。摄像机从上方跟踪动作,并在关键的悬念时刻穿插特写镜头。

But making that footage entertaining requires more than cool graphics. To understand how sperm racing reaches its full dramatic potential, I visited the production studio of Gabe Cataldi, the company’s announcer.

但是,要让这些画面具有娱乐性,仅靠酷炫的图形是不够的。为了解精子竞速如何充分发挥戏剧性潜力,我拜访了该公司的解说员加布·卡塔迪的制作工作室。

Cataldi’s job is harder than it looks. The contestants are sex cells that cannot make adjustments or pit stops. “They’re uncoachable athletes,” Cataldi said. As a commentator, he has to bring both enthusiasm and drama to the action of microscopic cells swimming through a channel.

卡塔迪的工作比看上去要难。参赛选手是生殖细胞,它们无法根据情况调整策略,也不能进站维修。“它们是无法指导的运动员,”卡塔迪说。作为一名解说员,他必须为显微镜下细胞在通道中游动的过程注入激情和戏剧性。

What really excites him are the personal back stories. He imagined a matchup between a macho “Andrew Tate type” and a “vegan skinny” guy who “looks like a twink.” If the musclebound meathead was actually unhealthy, it would be a perfect upset with a positive message: Virility can come in surprising packages. “Society, we should be praising this guy,” he said of his imaginary twink champion. “Biologically, the girls should be seeking him.”

真正令他兴奋的是选手背后的故事。他设想了一场对决,一方是肌肉发达的“安德鲁·泰特型”猛男,另一方是“纯素食的瘦子”,“看起来像个小鲜肉”。如果那个肌肉发达的壮汉实际上身体欠佳,这场以小搏大的逆袭便会带出一个积极的信息:男子气概有时会以出人意料的方式呈现。“从社会层面说,应该为这家伙喝彩,”他谈到自己脑海中那位小鲜肉冠军时说,“从生物学角度来看,女性应该追求这样的男性。”

31mag spermracing 02 jumbo
精子竞速旧金山办公室的无菌室,他们在这里制造将容纳微流控赛道的硅片。 Maggie Shannon for The New York Times

Cataldi has been giving these biological imperatives more thought now that he and his wife, who lives in New Zealand, are thinking about having their first child. But in some ways, Cataldi is already a father. He has taken to looking after his younger Sperm Racing co-workers. “They call me Unc and Dad,” he said. (He’s 33 years old.)

自从他和住在新西兰的妻子开始考虑要第一个孩子,卡塔尔迪便更加深入地思索起这些生物本能的问题。但在某种意义上,卡塔迪已经是一个父亲了。他开始照顾“精子竞速”比他年轻的同事们。“他们叫我大叔和老爸,”他说。(他今年33岁。)

Testing racetracks requires employees at Sperm Racing to regularly provide samples, and almost everyone in the office had taken part in internal company scrimmages — except Cataldi. “ I just felt really awkward,” he told me. “ But I’m in the best shape of my life, and I will maybe — I’ll go against you.”

为了测试赛道,“精子竞速”的员工需要定期提供样本,而办公室里几乎每个人都参加过公司内部的模拟比赛——唯独卡塔迪除外。“我就是觉得特别尴尬,”他告诉我。“不过我现在处于人生中最好的状态,也许——我会跟你比一场。”

Before I realized what had happened, I’d been challenged to a sperm race. My journalistic curiosity was piqued; for years I’d been thinking about the intersection of masculinity, health and wellness, and here was an opportunity to test all of these at once. But at stake was more than professional duty. My honor as a man, whatever that was, demanded I accept. Just a year apart in age, we would be racing in the Unc Division.

还没等我反应过来,我已经被挑战参加一场精子竞速赛了。我的记者好奇心被激发了;多年来我一直在思考男性气质、健康与养生之间的关系,而现在正好有机会一次性检验这些问题。但这不仅仅关乎职业责任。作为一个男人的荣誉——不管那究竟意味着什么——要求我接受挑战。我们年龄只差一岁,因此将在“大叔组”展开较量。

ON RACE DAY, I handed a plastic cup with a blue lid to a lab tech, who stowed it next to Cataldi’s in the incubator, where they rested for 10 minutes at 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Millions of my cells were, hopefully, zipping around in there. As news of the race spread through the office, a crowd formed in front of the wall-size TV.

比赛当天,我把一个带蓝色盖子的塑料杯交给一名实验室技术人员。她将其与卡塔迪的样本一同放入培养箱,在华氏98.6度(约摄氏37度)的环境中静置10分钟。我数以百万计的细胞正在里面奋力游动——希望如此。消息在办公室里传开,一群人聚集在整面墙大小的电视屏幕前。 

As the channels opened and the sperm flooded the chamber, Cataldi resumed his role as announcer. He took an early lead with a single sperm, R1, darting ahead. “I’m cooking him,” he said. But soon my L1 and L2 racers were pulling up alongside his. “My guy is completely lost!” he shouted at the screen. As my first sperm crossed the finish line, his was still stuck at the halfway mark. The whole thing lasted just 16 seconds. It was a blowout.

随着通道开启,精子涌入竞速槽,卡塔迪重新担任起解说员。他凭借一颗名为R1的精子取得领先,一骑绝尘。“我把他干掉了,”他说。但很快,我的L1和L2选手开始追了上来。“我的家伙完全迷路了!”他对着屏幕大喊。就在我的第一颗精子冲过终点线时,他的还卡在半程。整个过程只持续了16秒,这是一场完胜。

The workday was coming to an end, and people were drifting back to their desks to wrap things up and prepare for the weekly team dinner.

那个工作日接近尾声,人们陆续回到各自工位,收尾当天工作,并准备参加每周一次的团队晚餐。

Before the meal could begin, there was one final contest. Each week, a different member of the team organizes a multiple-choice quiz in Kahoot!, the app beloved by teachers and students across the United States.

在用餐开始之前,还有最后一场较量。每周,团队的一名不同成员都会在 Kahoot!(这款应用深受全美师生喜爱)上组织一次多项选择题测试。

“Guys, repeat after me: We are very against cheating at Sperm Racing,” Zhu said. The screen changed to the start page of the Kahoot! quiz. The title was “Gender, Feminism and LGBTQ+ Movements: A Knowledge Challenge.” I read a lot of feminist and queer theory in college. I was ready to run a victory lap.

“大家跟我说:我们坚决反对在精子赛跑中作弊,”埃里克·朱说道。屏幕切换到Kahoot!测验的开始页面,标题是“性别、女权主义与LGBTQ+运动:知识大挑战”。我大学时读过很多女权主义和酷儿理论的著作,我已经准备好再赢一场了。

Question 1: Which concept explains how gender inequality overlaps with race, class and other identities?

问题1:哪个概念解释了性别不平等与种族、阶级和其他身份的相交?

That was easy: intersectionality.

这个简单:交叉性(intersectionality)。

Question 2: Who developed the theory of intersectionality?

问题2:谁发展了交叉性理论?

My first thought was Audre Lorde. But she wasn’t up there. I panicked and chose bell hooks — wrong. It was Kimberlé Crenshaw. As I watched the rankings update, I saw that almost everyone else in the room had gotten it right. From there, things went downhill. When the quiz was over, the screen showed that out of 15 contestants, I came in 12th. The winner, with a perfect score, was van der Heiden.

我的第一反应是奥德丽·洛尔德。但选项里没有她。我惊慌失措地选了贝尔·胡克斯——选错了。正确答案是金伯莉·克伦肖。当我看着排名更新时,我看到房间里的几乎所有人都答对了。从那之后是一路下滑。测验结束时,屏幕显示在15名参赛者中,我排名第12位。获得满分的获胜者是范德海登。

Of the many surreal moments I experienced at the Sperm Racing office that week, this was perhaps the strangest. Given Zhu’s love of trolling, I considered whether it was all an elaborate prank — but the enthusiasm in the room felt genuine. The guys really did want to prove who knew the most about toxic masculinity, just as they wanted to see who had the fastest sperm or the heaviest squat max.

在那一周我在“精子竞速”办公室经历的众多超现实时刻中,这也许是最奇怪的一个。鉴于朱对恶搞的热爱,我曾想这是否一切都是个精心设计的恶作剧——但大家的热情感觉是真实的。这帮家伙确实想证明谁对“有毒的男子气概”了解最多,就像他们想看看谁的精子最快或者谁的深蹲极限最重一样。

After dinner, I approached van der Heiden. He had skipped trade school to focus on content creation full time, so where had he learned all this stuff?

晚饭后我去找了范德海登。他跳过了职业学校,专注于全职的内容创作,那么他在哪里学到了所有这些东西?

“Just TikTok,” he said, with a shrug.

“就在TikTok上,”他耸了耸肩说。

IN MAY, ZHU got in touch. Sperm Racing was pivoting again. One-third of the team had been replaced. The company was “steering away from the cheap jokes.” Now, they were leaning toward the name Biomarker Sports instead.

到了5月,朱来跟我聊了几句。“精子竞速”正再次进行全面转型。三分之一的团队成员已被替换。公司正在“避开低俗的笑话”。现在,他们倾向于使用“生物标志物运动”(Biomarker Sports)这个名字。

31mag sperm master1050
Photo illustration by Ricardo Tomás

The company would still race sperm, Zhu assured me. It just wasn’t the sole marker of health they wanted to measure and optimize. According to the pitch deck, there would be blood draws, cryo-chamber stress tests and a “VO2 max face off,” with a sperm race as the final leg of the contest. The idea behind the pivot, Zhu explained, was to appeal to an older audience, men ages 25 to 40 who may want a more serious approach to infertility.

他向我保证,公司仍然会进行精子竞速。只是这不再是他们想要测量和优化的唯一健康标志物了。根据商业计划书,未来将包含抽血、冷冻舱压力测试和“最大摄氧量对决”,并将精子竞速作为竞赛的最后一环。他解释说,这次转型背后的想法是为了吸引更年长的受众,即25至40岁的男性,他们可能希望以一种更严肃的方式来对待不育问题。

The civilization-level problems the business claimed to want to solve were colliding with business demands and the dull realities of the attention economy. In a funny way, Zhu and the others had backed themselves into the corner of the Valley entrepreneurs who came before — saying they wanted to change the world, and mostly making content instead. At times, these imperatives appeared hopelessly at odds, but Zhu didn’t seem to mind.

这家企业声称想要解决的文明层面的问题正与商业需求以及眼球经济的无趣现实发生碰撞。他们以一种搞笑的方式将自己逼入了跟以往的硅谷创业者一样的死角——嘴上说着想要改变世界,而结果主要还是在制作内容。这些要务有时看上去是根本无法兼顾的,但朱似乎不在乎。

When I had my last one-on-one with him back in San Francisco, it was a beautiful afternoon in Yerba Buena Gardens, and the birds and the bees were singing about spring. I asked him whether he planned to have children one day. He described a vision of himself as a patriarch, lying on his deathbed and surrounded by his progeny. “Grandchildren. Grandchildren’s grandchildren.” He wanted to be able to look back on his life with pride, and he felt sperm racing — in whatever form it took — would allow him to do that. “Think about the dad lore,” he said.

我回到旧金山与他进行最后一次面对面交谈是在芳草花园的一个美丽的下午,鸟儿和蜜蜂正在歌唱着春天。我问他有没有要孩子的打算。他描绘了一幅自己作为族长的愿景,躺在临终床榻上,被自己的后代簇拥着。“孙辈。孙辈的孙辈。”他希望能够带着自豪回顾自己的一生,并且他觉得精子竞速——无论它采取什么形式——都能让他做到这一点。“想想那会是怎样的‘老爸传奇’啊,”他说。

LYDIA DEPILLIS, MEGAN SPECIA, TATIANA FIRSOVA

玛丽亚姆·索巴约于2005年2月10日出生在都柏林,就在该国停止施行多年的“凡在爱尔兰土地上出生即自动获得公民身份”做法几周后。 Ellius Grace for The New York Times

Mariam Sobayo came achingly close to feeling like she belonged in Ireland.

玛丽亚姆·索巴约曾经眼看着就要对爱尔兰产生一种归属感。

She was born in Dublin on Feb. 10, 2005, just a few weeks after the country halted its longstanding practice of granting citizenship to all children born on Irish soil. Her parents immigrated to Ireland from Nigeria in 2001, and she is the youngest of five children. Two of her older sisters were born in Ireland in 2002 and 2004.

她于2005年2月10日出生在都柏林,就在该国停止施行多年的“凡在爱尔兰土地上出生即自动获得公民身份”做法几周后。她的父母于2001年从尼日利亚移民到爱尔兰,她是五个孩子中最小的一个。她的两个姐姐分别于2002年和2004年出生在爱尔兰。

Because of the timing, they were automatically Irish citizens. For Ms. Sobayo, it would take years of filing paperwork and waiting for answers to finally obtain her citizenship at 18.

由于出生时间的差异,她们自动获得了爱尔兰公民身份。索巴约则花了多年时间提交文件、等待答复,直到18岁才最终获得公民身份。

“I was born in Dublin, I never left Dublin,” she said of growing up in the Irish capital, and described getting exceptional grades in Irish language studies in school. “It’s like, ‘Oh, here’s this new citizenship.’ Where I’m like, I’ve been here since Day 1.”

“我出生在都柏林,我从未离开过都柏林,”她在谈到在爱尔兰首都长大的经历时说,并提到自己在学校爱尔兰语课程中成绩优异。“这就像,‘哦,现在有了这么个新的公民身份。’而我想说,我从第一天就在这里。”

Without a passport, she could not travel outside the country, even as classmates went on school trips. When her Irish naturalization was approved, she felt a mix of relief and anger. “I feel like it was carrying a heavy weight that wasn’t supposed to be mine,” Ms. Sobayo said. She is now a social worker, caring for children seeking international protection.

没有护照,她无法出国旅行,即使同学们去参加学校旅行时也是如此。当她的爱尔兰入籍申请获得批准时,她感到既解脱又愤怒。“我觉得这就像背负着一个本不该属于我的沉重负担,”索巴约说。她现在是一名社工,照顾寻求国际保护的儿童。

In the coming weeks, the U.S. Supreme Court will issue its decision in a landmark case through which the White House has sought to end the 157-year-old legal standard of birthright citizenship.

在未来几周,美国最高法院将就一宗里程碑式案件作出裁决,白宫试图通过此案结束有157年历史的出生公民权法律标准。

When President Trump talks about this issue, he calls America “STUPID” for automatically granting citizenship to U.S.-born children of immigrants. The policy does stand out for its permissiveness: Although many countries in Central and South America have similar laws, most nations require that at least one parent be a citizen for a child to qualify.

当特朗普总统谈论这个问题时,他称美国“愚蠢”——因为它自动向在美国出生的移民子女授予公民身份。该政策的宽松确实有目共睹:虽然中美洲和南美洲的许多国家有类似法律,但大多数国家要求至少父母一方为公民,孩子才有资格获得公民身份。

But research has shown that more restrictive policies can diminish the potential of children who are born and raised in a country as noncitizens — and that loosening the policy can improve the prospects of the generations born with the benefit.

但研究表明,更严格的政策可能会削弱那些在某国出生并长大、却没有公民身份的儿童的潜力,放宽政策则能改善受益一代的前景。

For example, a study by an international team of researchers last year found that the children of immigrants to the United States excelled further past similarly aged children of citizens than did second-generation immigrants in other developed countries. Across the 12 nations studied, birthright citizenship was correlated with higher economic mobility for the children of immigrants.

例如,去年一个国际研究团队的研究发现,与其他发达国家的第二代移民相比,美国移民的子女比同龄公民子女的表现更为突出。在所研究的12个国家中,出生公民权与移民子女更高的经济流动性相关。

“Of all the developed economies in the world, the U.S. is the most successful at integrating immigrants, and you might wonder why,” said Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, an economics professor at the University of California, Merced. “Maybe that access to citizenship from very early on is important.”

“在全球所有发达经济体中,美国在移民融入方面最为成功,你可能会好奇原因,”加州大学默塞德分校经济学教授卡塔利娜·阿穆埃多-多兰特斯说。“或许从很早开始就能获得公民身份这一点非常重要。”

The ‘Sins of the Parents’

“父母的罪过”

It is difficult to tease out the effect of different immigration policies across countries because there are so many variables and few natural experiments that allow researchers to compare one set of people with another. Ireland’s shift away from birthright citizenship provides such an experiment.

要区分不同国家移民政策的影响非常困难,因为变量太多,且很少能通过自然实验让研究者将一组人与另一组人进行比较。爱尔兰放弃出生公民权的转变提供了一个这样的实验。

For much of Ireland’s history, anyone born there had a right to citizenship. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which forged peace in Northern Ireland, enshrined it in Ireland’s Constitution. That changed in 2005, after 79 percent of voters supported a referendum to remove the constitutional amendment on birthright citizenship.

在爱尔兰历史上大部分时间里,任何在那里出生的人都有权获得公民身份。1998年促成北爱尔兰和平的《耶稣受难日协议》将其写入爱尔兰宪法。2005年,这一情况发生了变化,当时79%的选民支持公投,取消了宪法中关于出生公民权的条款。

The vote came during a period when Ireland’s economy was booming and the quality of life was improving, making the country an immigration destination rather than an exporter of people, as it had been for centuries. Ireland also faced some pressure from the still-young European Union, since it was the only member country to offer birthright citizenship, and citizens of all E.U. countries were now entitled to live and work anywhere within the bloc.

公投发生在爱尔兰经济繁荣、生活质量改善的时期,使该国从几个世纪以来的移民输出国变成了移民目的国。爱尔兰还面临着当时尚年轻的欧盟的一些压力,因为它是唯一提供出生公民权的成员国,而所有欧盟公民都有权在欧盟任何地方生活和工作。

But the public debate largely centered on claims that “birth tourism” was leaving maternity hospitals overcrowded. In reality, most non-Irish mothers giving birth were European nationals already entitled to residency, and hospital strains stemmed from underfunding. One study found that immigrants who arrived in Ireland from 1999 to 2004 had more education and fewer children than those who came before or after.

但公众辩论主要集中在所谓“生育旅游”导致妇产医院人满为患的说法上。事实上,大多数在爱尔兰生产的非爱尔兰母亲是已有居留权的欧洲国民,医院压力主要源于资金不足。一项研究发现,1999年至2004年间抵达爱尔兰的移民受教育程度更高,子女数量少于此前和此后的移民。

After the referendum, citizenship for anyone born in Ireland on or after Jan. 1, 2005, would depend on their parents’ nationality and residence history.

公投后,2005年1月1日及以后在爱尔兰出生的人的公民身份,将取决于其父母的国籍和居留历史。

Even though the Constitution no longer protected automatic birthright citizenship, other generous provisions were introduced, explained Samantha Arnold, a senior manager with the immigration consultancy Fragomen.

移民咨询公司Fragomen的高级经理萨曼莎·阿诺德解释道,尽管宪法不再保护自动出生公民权,但还是引入了其他宽松条款。

Children born in Ireland with at least one parent legally residing on the island for three out of the four years before their birth can still qualify for citizenship. Children born in Ireland and not entitled to citizenship of another country are also eligible, preventing them from becoming stateless.

在爱尔兰出生、且至少父母一方在其出生前四年中有三年合法居留于该岛的孩子仍可获得公民身份。在爱尔兰出生且无权获得其他国家公民身份的孩子也有资格,以防止他们成为无国籍人士。

“There are a lot of things to try to catch people, but of course people are going to fall through the cracks,” Ms. Arnold said, adding that those most at risk of not having access to citizenship are the children of parents who did not have permission to live in the state.

“有很多措施试图把人们兜住,但当然还是有人会掉进裂缝,”阿诺德说。她补充道,最可能无法获得公民身份的是那些父母没有合法居留许可的孩子。

Ebun Joseph, the special rapporteur for Ireland’s National Action Plan Against Racism, recently produced a documentary about the young people born in Ireland to non-Irish parents shortly after the referendum who have been left in limbo.

爱尔兰国家反种族主义行动计划特别报告员埃本·约瑟夫最近制作了一部纪录片,讲述了公投后不久在爱尔兰出生于非爱尔兰父母家庭、至今仍处于悬而未决状态的年轻人。

“It created a huge policy gap that is impacting young people particularly in their education and mental health,” Ms. Joseph said. “The sins of the parents are visited on the children. If a parent is criminal, or for whatever reason doesn’t get citizenship, then the children are locked out of citizenship.”

“它制造了一个巨大的政策缺口,特别影响了年轻人的教育和心理健康,”约瑟夫说。“父母的罪过报应在孩子身上。如果父母是罪犯,或者无论什么原因没有获得公民身份,那么孩子就无从获得公民身份。”

More Citizenship, More Integration

更多公民身份,更多融入

The change in Ireland is still too recent to have generated much data about how young adults born after 2005 are faring compared with their slightly older peers. But there is more research on a similar change in Germany — one that moved in the opposite direction.

爱尔兰的这一变化发生时间尚短,还没有产生多少数据,从而可以将2005年后出生的年轻成年人与稍年长的同龄人进行比较。但德国的一项类似变化(方向相反)有更多研究。

On Jan. 1, 2000, Germany began extending citizenship at birth as long as at least one parent had been living in the country legally for eight years, a period later shortened to five years. It created an opening for many children of immigrants, who at that time were generally guest workers from Turkey and Eastern Europe. In 2024, about 47,500 babies born to foreign parents qualified for citizenship, while 100,000 did not, according to Germany’s statistical office.

2000年1月1日,德国开始在孩子出生时授予公民身份,前提是至少父母一方已在德国合法居住八年(后来缩短至五年)。这为许多移民子女打开了大门,当时他们主要是来自土耳其和东欧的客工。据德国统计局数据,2024年约有47500名外国父母所生的婴儿获得了公民身份,有10万名没有获得。

Research has found that boys born just after the cutoff who were eligible for citizenship integrated better with their peers. Both boys and girls enrolled in preschool at higher rates, progressed faster in primary school and were more likely to pursue more rigorous academics in secondary school. They committed 70 percent fewer crimes than those who were not granted citizenship at birth, and their parents were more likely to speak German and integrate with their local community.

研究发现,刚好在截止日期后出生、有资格获得公民身份的男孩与同龄人融入得更好男孩和女孩入读学前班的比例都更高,在小学进步更快,更有可能在中学攻读更艰深的学业。他们犯罪率降低了70%他们的父母也更有可能说德语并融入当地社区。

Simone Schüller, a research fellow at the German Youth Institute, said the effect of citizenship was likely subconscious — young adults may not fully understand how it shapes their lives.

德国青年研究所研究员西蒙娜·许勒表示,公民身份的影响可能是潜意识的——年轻成年人可能并不完全理解这在如何塑造他们的生活。

“We see it in how they behave, how they make decisions, how they make educational choices and whether they choose to engage in criminal behavior or not,” Ms. Schüller said. “I’m not sure if the individuals themselves are that aware of it.”

“我们从他们的行为、决策、教育选择以及是否选择犯罪行为中看到了这一点,”许勒说。“我不确定他们自己是否有这个意识。”

Nevertheless, having a parent with legal residence for five years is still a high bar. According to Magdalena Benavente, a legal adviser for the Berlin Migration Council who counsels families with immigration issues, lacking citizenship can have a major effect on children who are born in Germany without eligibility.

然而,父母有五年合法居留仍是一个很高的门槛。据为有移民问题的家庭提供咨询的柏林移民理事会法律顾问玛格达莱娜·贝纳文特说,对于在德国出生但不符合资格的孩子来说,缺乏公民身份会产生重大影响。

For example, immigration authorities often ask parents about their children’s school attendance and grades as indicators of how well the family has integrated into German society when their residency permits are up for renewal.

例如,移民当局在更新父母居留许可时,经常询问孩子上学出勤率和成绩,以此作为家庭融入德国社会的指标。

“This means the children pretty soon feel this pressure that they could be deported at any time,” Ms. Benavente said, in German. “This fear is completely breaking them.”

“这意味着孩子们很快就会感受到他们随时可能被驱逐的压力,”贝纳文特用德语说。“这种恐惧正在彻底击垮他们。”

Christina Felfe, an economist at the University of Konstanz, said that despite the benefits of birthright citizenship, it had not erased disparities with children whose parents are German.

康斯坦茨大学经济学家克里斯蒂娜·费尔费表示,尽管出生公民权有诸多好处,但它并未消除与父母为德国人的孩子之间的差距。

“We see huge issues of when there is a high share of immigrants and natives, and in particular if they’re culturally distant, we do have a large share of discrimination, a lack of trust,” she said. “It’s just one policy that could contribute to integrating, but it’s not enough.”

“当移民和本地人比例很高,尤其是文化差异较大时,我们看到了大量歧视和信任缺失的问题,”她说。“这只是一项可能有助于融入的政策,但还不够。”

JONATHAN WOLFE

The announcement by Stephen Curry, one of pro basketball’s biggest stars, that he had signed a major endorsement deal with the Chinese sportswear brand Li-Ning raises the profile of a company that has lacked the cachet of Western brands like Nike or Adidas.

职业篮球界最耀眼的明星之一史蒂芬·库里宣布与中国运动服装品牌李宁签署了一项重大代言协议。这提升了李宁的知名度——此前该品牌一直缺乏耐克或阿迪达斯等西方品牌所具备的声望。

The agreement, which Mr. Curry announced on Monday, is set to give the N.B.A. star access to China’s enormous consumer base, while offering Li-Ning its biggest ever inroad into the U.S. sportswear market.

库里于周一宣布了这项协议。该协议不仅将为这位NBA球星打开通往中国庞大消费者群体的大门,同时也将为李宁进军美国运动服装市场提供有史以来最大的契机。

Under the partnership, Mr. Curry, the N.B.A.’s three-point record-holder and point guard for the Golden State Warriors, will bring his Curry Brand of basketball shoes and apparel to the Chinese company. It will also allow him to sign athletes under his brand, according to ESPN.

根据这项合作关系,NBA三分球纪录保持者、金州勇士队控球后卫库里,将把他的库里品牌(Curry Brand)篮球鞋和服饰系列带入这家中国公司据ESPN报道,该协议还将允许他以自己的品牌名义签约其他运动员。

Here’s what to know about Li-Ning and the deal.

以下是关于李宁及此次合作协议的要点。

What is Li-Ning?

李宁是什么?

Li-Ning was created in 1990 by the Chinese gymnast Li Ning, who won six medals, including three golds, at the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles. He retired in 1988 and soon after founded his sportswear brand.

李宁品牌由中国体操运动员李宁于1990年创立。他曾在1984年洛杉矶奥运会上获得六枚奖牌,其中包括三枚金牌。他于1988年退役,随后不久创立了自己的运动服装品牌。

The company initially focused on providing sportswear for Chinese consumers, outfitting the country’s Olympic delegations and occasionally sponsoring professional tennis players. After going public in 2004, it signed footwear deals with N.B.A. players including Shaquille O’Neal and Baron Davis.

该公司最初致力于为中国消费者提供运动服,为国家奥运代表团提供装备,并偶尔赞助职业网球运动员。2004年上市后,它与包括沙奎尔·奥尼尔和拜伦·戴维斯在内的多名NBA球员签署了球鞋合约。

1984年洛杉矶奥运会上的中国选手李宁。 Trevor Jones/Getty Images

In 2012, it signed the Miami Heat star Dwyane Wade and began producing his Way of Wade line.

2012年,它签约了迈阿密热火队球星德维恩·韦德,开始生产他的“韦德之道”(Way of Wade)系列产品。

The company is one of China’s most successful sportswear brands and reported $4.3 billion in revenue last year, though nearly all of its earnings come from domestic sales, according to the company’s publicly available financial reports.

该公司是中国最成功的运动服装品牌之一,据该公司公开的财务报告显示,公司去年营收达到43亿美元,尽管几乎所有的收益都来自国内销售。

With the Curry deal, Li-Ning is likely hoping to expand its global reach.

通过与库里的合作,李宁可能希望扩大其全球影响力。

What’s in the Curry deal?

库里的协议包含哪些内容?

The 10-year agreement includes plans for basketball, athleisure and golf products, according to ESPN. (Mr. Curry, 38, is an avid golfer and sees the sport as part of his post-basketball career.)

据ESPN报道,这项为期10年的协议涵盖了篮球、运动休闲和高尔夫产品的计划。(38岁的库里是狂热的高尔夫球爱好者,并将这项运动视为篮球退役后职业规划的一部分。)

The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. But it includes plans to build brick-and-mortar Curry Brand stores across the United States and China, according to Mr. Curry.

该协议的财务条款尚未披露。但据库里表示,其中包括在全美和中国建立库里品牌实体店的计划。

The basketball star parted ways with his previous sponsor, the American sportswear maker Under Armour, in 2025 after a 12-year partnership. The terms of the split allowed Mr. Curry to keep his personal brand and take it to another company.

这位篮球巨星于2025年结束了与前赞助商、美国运动服装制造商安德玛长达12年的合作关系。分手条款允许库里保留他的个人品牌,并将其带到另一家公司。

Why did he choose Li-Ning?

他为什么选择李宁?

Mr. Curry’s split with Under Armour, which has been struggling financially, led to speculation about which brand he might sign with. Fans and sportswear enthusiasts dissected and obsessed over his shoe choices over months as he tried various brands of footwear in pregame warm-ups.

库里与深陷财务困境的安德玛解约后,外界纷纷猜测他将与哪个品牌签约。几个月来,他在赛前热身中尝试了各种品牌的鞋子。球迷和运动服装爱好者对他的选择进行了深入剖析和痴迷讨论

02xp li ning wfzk master1050库里穿着李宁运动鞋。

Mr. Curry wrote on Monday that during his “sneaker free agency,” he was impressed by the quality and comfort of Li-Ning shoes, and by its founder, who was also an athlete.

库里在周一写道,在他的“运动鞋自由身”时期,李宁运动鞋的质量和舒适度给他留下了深刻印象,该公司同为运动员出身的创始人也是如此。

The deal also reflects the desire of A-list athletes like Mr. Curry to expand their brand beyond the playing field. He instantly becomes Li-Ning’s biggest name, and in his announcement he signaled that he sees the future of Curry Brand as a global enterprise, with Li-Ning helping to power its growth.

这项协议也反映了库里这样的一线运动员希望将个人品牌拓展到赛场之外的愿望。他立刻成为李宁名气最大的代言人,在声明中,他透露自己将库里品牌的未来定位为全球性企业,而李宁将助力其发展。

“Curry Brand will now have an expanded runway of resources and a global footprint to bring new best-in-class innovations and amazing products to people around the world,” Mr. Curry wrote.

“库里品牌现在将拥有更广阔的资源平台和全球足迹,为世界各地带来行业领先的创新成果和卓越产品,”库里写道。

What does the deal say about Chinese brands?

这项协议对中国品牌意味着什么?

For decades, the N.B.A. has been dominated by Western brands including Nike and Adidas. But the Curry deal is the latest example of an N.B.A. star signing with a Chinese company. Others include Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving with Anta and Aaron Gordon with 361 Degrees.

几十年来,NBA一直由包括耐克和阿迪达斯在内的西方品牌主导。但库里的协议是NBA球星与中国公司签约的最新案例。其他例子还包括克莱·汤普森和凯里·欧文签约安踏,以及阿隆·戈登签约361度。

02xp li ning pvml master1050运动品牌李宁最初专注于为中国消费者和运动员提供运动服装。

By making Mr. Curry as the new face of its brand, Li-Ning looks to be moving more aggressively into the U.S. market. Other Chinese brands are also trying to find customers in the United States, as they work to escape cutthroat competition and a sluggish economy at home.

通过让库里担任品牌新代言人,李宁似乎正在更积极地进军美国市场。其他中国品牌也在努力开拓美国市场,以期摆脱国内残酷的竞争和疲软的经济。

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