A summit between President Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that could extend their countries’ trade truce is less than three weeks away, yet a cloud of uncertainty hangs over it.

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平之间可能延长两国贸易休战状态的峰会还有不到三周就要举行，但其前景仍笼罩着不确定性的阴云。

Chinese officials are frustrated by a lack of details from the White House about Mr. Trump’s agenda and what deals the two sides could agree on, Chinese analysts say. American business leaders, for their part, don’t know if they are being invited to join the U.S. president.

中国分析人士表示，白宫迟迟不提供特朗普的议程细节以及双方可能达成的协议，中国官员感到挫败。美国商界领袖则表示，他们尚不清楚是否会被邀请随同总统出行。

To some extent, that may be just what dealing with Mr. Trump looks like. He prizes being unpredictable and has said he thinks keeping the other side off balance is the secret to winning. The Chinese government, on the other hand, likes to script every detail of meetings with Mr. Xi well in advance.

在某种程度上，这或许正是与特朗普打交道的常态。他推崇不可预测性，并曾表示他认为让对方摸不着头脑是获胜的秘诀。相比之下，中国政府则习惯提前很久就为与习近平的会晤拟定每一个细节。

“Usually, planning for this kind of visit would start months ahead. But this time, it started very late and it’s still very much in progress,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, who last year was among a group of Chinese scholars attending unofficial talks in the United States.

“通常情况下，这种访问的规划会在几个月前开始。但这一次启动得很晚，而且目前仍处于推进过程中，”复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示。去年，他曾作为中国学者代表团的一员赴美参加非官方会谈。

“We still don’t know what this visit will achieve,” he said.

他说：“我们仍然不知道这次访问将取得什么成果。”

That includes what commercial deals may be announced during the visit and what else Mr. Trump wants to do, Mr. Wu said. Some of these questions might be ironed out when Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China meet in Paris later this week.

吴心伯表示，这包括访问期间可能宣布哪些商业交易，以及特朗普希望达成的其他事项。其中一些问题可能会在本周晚些时候美国财政部长贝森特与中国副总理何立峰在巴黎会面时得到解决。

Concerns about the summit, which the White House says will be from March 31 to April 2, are also being aired in the United States. On Tuesday, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council, Sean Stein, said that the White House had yet to invite any business leaders to travel with him.

白宫称这次峰会将于3月31日至4月2日举行，而美国国内也传出了对此次峰会的担忧。周二，美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森(Sean Stein)表示，白宫尚未邀请任何商界领袖随行。

美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森今年1月在华盛顿特区出席活动。

World leaders are often accompanied by chief executives on visits to China, in a reflection of the importance of the Chinese economy. Last month, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany traveled to Beijing with roughly 30 executives; in January, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain took nearly 60 businesspeople. Mr. Trump himself brought executives with him in 2017 during his first presidential term.

世界领导人访问中国时通常会有首席执行官随行，这反映了中国经济的重要性。上个月，德国总理默茨率领约30名高管访问北京；今年1月，英国首相斯塔默带去了近60名商界人士。特朗普自己在2017年首个总统任期访华时也曾带企业高管随行。

“It’s hard to imagine the president is not going to want to have a robust delegation,” Mr. Stein said. “But so far, again, invitations haven’t gone out.”

“很难想象总统会不希望带一支强大的代表团，”谭森说。“但到目前为止，邀请函确实还没有发出。”

Mr. Stein said his understanding was that the Trump administration had not yet made a decision about whether chief executives should accompany the president.

谭森表示，据他了解，特朗普政府尚未决定是否安排企业高管随行。

A White House spokesman said that the administration intended to extend invitations when appropriate. It was normal for the United States not to have extended invitations yet, he said. On the goals for the summit, the spokesman said that neither side had yet revealed specifics.

白宫发言人表示，政府打算在适当时机发出邀请。他说，美国尚未发出邀请是正常的。至于峰会的目标，该发言人表示双方目前均未透露具体细节。

The U.S.-China relationship has largely been focused on maintaining stability, after a trade clash last year sent the relationship into a free fall. Mr. Trump’s steep global tariffs prompted the Chinese to cut off purchases of U.S. soybeans and clamp down on exports of rare earth minerals needed by American factories.

在去年的贸易冲突导致两国关系直线下跌后，目前两国主要聚焦于维持稳定。特朗普征收的高额全球关税促使中方切断了对美国大豆的采购，并限制美国工厂所需的稀土矿产出口。

Mr. Trump met Mr. Xi in South Korea in October, when they agreed on a yearlong trade truce. American officials have since said that the two leaders are expected to meet as many as four times this year.

特朗普去年10月在韩国与习近平会面，当时双方达成了一项为期一年的贸易战停火协议。美国官员此后表示，预计两位领导人今年将进行多达四次的会晤。

习近平主席的专车在10月釜山与特朗普会晤期间停在空军一号附近。

U.S. business leaders have been pressing for a more ambitious agenda that would try to open Chinese markets and remove impediments to businesses seeking to operate there. That includes obtaining approvals for U.S. crops grown with genetically modified seeds, U.S. pharmaceutical exports, and pending licenses for financial services companies.

美国商界领袖一直向政府施压，要求制定更宏大的议程，推动中国市场的开放，消除企业在华经营的障碍。这包括为美国转基因种子农产品、美国药品出口，以及金融服务公司待批牌照争取到批准。

China has yet to confirm the dates of the summit, but that is in line with its standard practice. Still, the country’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, struck a positive note at a news briefing last week.

中国尚未确认峰会的日期，但这符合其惯常做法。尽管如此，中国最高外交官王毅在上周的新闻发布会上表达了积极的态度。

“This year is a big year for China-U.S. relations,” Mr. Wang said. “The agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table.”

“今年是中美关系的‘大年’，高层交往的议程已经摆在我们的桌面上，”王毅说。

The comments suggested plans had not been derailed by the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, one of China’s strategic partners.

这样的言论表明，中国战略伙伴之一伊朗遭美以袭击事件并未打乱中美之间的计划。

Mr. Wang hinted, though, that the Trump administration should not do anything to antagonize China that could jeopardize the meeting, saying both sides should “manage the risks that do exist and remove unnecessary disruptions.” Mr. Trump has already delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi ahead of the summit.

不过，王毅暗示，特朗普政府不应做任何可能危害会晤的挑衅中国行为，称双方应“管控存在的风险，排除不必要的干扰”。 为避免在峰会前激怒习近平，特朗普已推迟宣布向台湾（北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿）出售武器的计划。

Mr. Wu of Fudan University said he doubted that China would lavish Mr. Trump with as much pomp and circumstance as they had on his first trip, when Mr. Xi took him on a personal tour of the Forbidden City. Just months after that, Mr. Trump launched his first trade war with China.

复旦大学的吴心伯表示，他怀疑中国是否还会像特朗普第一次访华时那样，给予他极其隆重的礼遇，当时习近平曾亲自陪同他参观故宫。就在那次访问几个月后，特朗普发起了对华的第一场贸易战。

“I’m not sure China is going to provide this kind of treatment for him again,” Mr. Wu said. “No matter how well you treat him, you cannot prevent him from changing his mind.”

“我不确定中国是否会再一次给他这种待遇，”吴心伯说。“不管你对他多好，都无法阻止他改变主意。”

On Feb. 18, as President Trump weighed whether to launch military attacks on Iran, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told an interviewer he was not concerned that the looming war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.

2月18日，就在特朗普总统权衡是否对伊朗发动军事打击时，能源部长克里斯·赖特在接受采访时表示，他并不担心迫在眉睫的战争会扰乱中东的石油供应并对能源市场造成破坏。

Even during the Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran last June, Mr. Wright said, there had been little disruption in the markets. “Oil prices blipped up and then went back down,” he said. Some of Mr. Trump’s other advisers shared similar views in private, dismissing warnings that — the second time around — Iran might wage economic warfare by closing shipping lanes carrying roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.

赖特表示，即使在去年6月以色列和美国对伊朗进行打击期间，市场也几乎没有受到干扰。他说：“油价只是有小幅跳升，然后就回落了。”特朗普的其他一些顾问在私下里也持有类似观点，他们对相关警告不屑一顾——这些警告称，在第二次冲突中，伊朗可能会通过关闭承载全球约20%石油供应的航道来发动经济战。

The extent of that miscalculation was laid bare in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf. In response to the Iranian threats, commercial shipping has come to a standstill in the Gulf, oil prices have spiked, and the Trump administration has scrambled to find ways to tamp down an economic crisis that has triggered higher gasoline prices for Americans.

这种误判的严重程度在近日暴露无遗。随着伊朗威胁要向通过霍尔木兹海峡的商业油轮开火（霍尔木兹海峡是所有船只进出波斯湾必须经过的战略咽喉），海湾地区的商业航运应声陷入停滞，油价飙升，特朗普政府正焦头烂额地寻找方法，以平息这场已导致美国汽油价格上涨的经济危机。

The episode is emblematic of how much Mr. Trump and his advisers misjudged how Iran would respond to a conflict that the government in Tehran sees as an existential threat. Iran has responded far more aggressively than it did during last June’s 12-day war, firing barrages of missiles and drones at U.S. military bases, cities in Arab nations across the Middle East, and on Israeli population centers.

这一事件典型地反映了特朗普及其顾问如何严重低估了伊朗对这场冲突的反应，德黑兰政府将其视为生存威胁。伊朗的反应远比去年6月那场为期12天的战争要激烈得多，他们向美国军事基地、中东各地的阿拉伯城市以及以色列的人口中心发射了大量导弹和无人机。

U.S. officials have had to adjust plans on the fly, from hastily ordering the evacuation of embassies to developing policy proposals to reduce gas prices.

美国官员不得不临时调整计划，从紧急下令撤离大使馆，到制定降低油价的政策建议。

After Trump administration officials gave a closed-door briefing to lawmakers on Tuesday, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, said on social media that the administration had no plan for the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open.”

在特朗普政府官员周二向立法者进行闭门简报后，康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯托弗·S·墨菲在社交媒体上表示，政府对霍尔木兹海峡没有计划，且“不知道如何安全地恢复通航”。

Inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war. But they have been careful not to express that directly to the president, who has repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete success.

在政府内部，一些官员对于缺乏明确的结束战争的战略越来越感到悲观。但他们一直小心翼翼，不敢直接向总统表达这一点，因为总统反复宣称这次军事行动取得了圆满成功。

Mr. Trump has laid out maximalist goals like insisting that Iran name a leader who will submit to him, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have described narrower and more tactical objectives that could provide an off-ramp in the near term.

特朗普提出了一些宏大的目标，比如坚持要求伊朗任命一位顺从他的领导人；而国务卿马可·鲁比奥和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯则描述了更狭窄、更具战术性的目标，这可能在短期内提供一个“退坡”机制。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “had a strong game plan” before the war broke out, and vowed that oil prices would drop after it ended.

白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，政府在战争爆发前制定了一个“强大的作战方案”，并誓言油价将在战争结束后下跌。

“The purposeful disruption in the oil market by the Iranian regime is short term, and necessary for the long-term gain of wiping out these terrorists and the threat they pose to America and the world,” she said in a statement.

她在一份声明中说：“伊朗政权蓄意扰乱石油市场是短期的，对于消除这些恐怖分子及其对美国和世界构成的威胁这一长期利益来说，这是必要的。”

This article is based on interviews with a dozen U.S. officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss private conversations.

本文基于对十几名美国官员的采访，由于涉及私下对话，他们要求匿名。

白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，在战争爆发前，政府就已制定了“强大的作战方案”。

‘Show Some Guts’

“拿出点胆量来”

Mr. Hegseth acknowledged on Tuesday that Iran’s ferocious response against its neighbors caught the Pentagon somewhat off guard. But he insisted that Iran’s actions were backfiring.

海格塞斯周二承认，伊朗对其邻国的凶猛反应令五角大楼有些措手不及。但他坚称，其行为的效果适得其反。

“I can’t say that we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react, but we knew it was a possibility,” Mr. Hegseth said at a Pentagon news conference. “I think it was a demonstration of the desperation of the regime.”

“我不能说我们预料到了他们一定会做出这种反应，但我们知道有这种可能性，”海格塞斯在五角大楼的新闻发布会上说。“我认为这反映了该政权的绝望。”

Mr. Trump has displayed growing frustration over how the war is disrupting the oil supply, telling Fox News that oil tanker crews should “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

特朗普日益表现出对战争扰乱石油供应的不满，他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，油轮船员应该“拿出点胆量来”，驶过霍尔木兹海峡。

Some military advisers did warn before the war that Iran could launch an aggressive campaign in response, and would view the U.S.-Israeli attack as a threat to its existence. But other advisers remained confident that killing Iran’s senior leadership would lead to more pragmatic leaders taking over who might bring an end to the war.

一些军事顾问在战前确实警告过，伊朗可能会发起剧烈的反击，并将美以的攻击视为对其生存的威胁。但其他顾问仍然信心十足，认为除掉伊朗的高层领导将导致更务实的领导人接权，从而可能结束战争。

When Mr. Trump was briefed about risks that oil prices could rise in the event of war, he acknowledged the possibility but downplayed it as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime. He directed Mr. Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to work on developing options for a potential spike in prices.

当特朗普听取关于战争可能导致油价上涨的风险简报时，他承认了这种可能性，但将其淡化为短期担忧，不应因此盖过“斩首”伊朗政权任务的成功。他指示赖特和财政部长斯科特·贝森特针对潜在的价格飙升制定对策。

But the president did not speak publicly about these options — including political risk insurance backed by the U.S. government, and the potential of U.S. Navy escorts — until more than 48 hours after the conflict started. The escorts have not yet taken place.

但直到冲突爆发48小时后，总统才公开谈论这些选项——包括由美国政府支持的政治风险保险，以及美国海军护航的可能性。目前护航行动尚未实施。

As the conflict has roiled global markets, Republicans in Washington have grown concerned about rising oil prices damaging their efforts to sell an economic agenda to voters ahead of the midterm elections.

随着冲突扰乱全球市场，华盛顿的共和党人越来越担心油价上涨会损害他们在国会中期选举前向选民推销经济议程的努力。

Mr. Trump, both publicly and privately, has been arguing that Venezuelan oil could help solve any shocks coming from the Iran war. The administration announced on Tuesday a new refinery in Texas that officials said could help increase oil supply, ensuring that Iran does not cause any long-term damage to oil markets.

特朗普在公开和私下场合都一直在争辩说，委内瑞拉的石油可以帮助缓解伊朗战争带来的任何冲击。政府周二宣布在得克萨斯州建立一家新炼油厂，官员们表示这有助于增加石油供应，确保伊朗不会对石油市场造成任何长期损害。

A Potential Off-Ramp

潜在的退坡机制

Mr. Trump has said both that the war could go on for more than a month and that it was “very complete, pretty much.” He also said the United States would “go forward more determined than ever.”

特朗普既说过战争可能会持续一个月以上，又说过战争已经“非常彻底，基本上是这样”。他还表示美国将“比以往任何时候都更加坚定地前进”。

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Hegseth, however, appear to have coordinated their messaging for now on three discrete goals that they began laying out in public remarks on Monday and Tuesday.

然而，鲁比奥和海格塞斯目前的口径似乎达成了一致，集中在他们在周一和周二的公开讲话中开始列出的三个具体目标上。

“The goals of this mission are clear,” Mr. Rubio said at a State Department event on Monday before Mr. Trump held his own news conference. “It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers; destroy the factories that make these missiles; and destroy their navy.”

“这次任务的目标很明确，”鲁比奥周一在特朗普举行自己的新闻发布会之前，在国务院的一次活动中说。“那就是摧毁该政权发射导弹的能力，包括摧毁他们的导弹和发射器；摧毁制造这些导弹的工厂；并摧毁他们的海军。”

The State Department even laid out the three goals in bullet-point fashion, and highlighted a video clip of Mr. Rubio stating them on an official social media account.

国务院甚至以项目符号列表形式列出了这三个目标，并在官方社交媒体账号上重点展示了鲁比奥阐述这些目标的视频片段。

特朗普曾既表示过这场战争可能会持续一个月以上，又表示过战争已经“非常彻底，基本上是这样”。

The presentation by Mr. Rubio, who is also the White House national security adviser, appeared to be setting the stage for the president to bring an end to the war sooner rather than later. In his news conference, Mr. Trump boasted of how the U.S. military had already destroyed Iran’s ballistic missile capability and its navy. But he also warned of even more aggressive action if Iranian leaders tried to cut off the world’s energy supply.

同时也是白宫国家安全顾问的鲁比奥做出的这番表述似乎是在为总统尽早结束战争铺路。在新闻发布会上，特朗普夸耀美国军方已经摧毁了伊朗的弹道导弹能力和海军。但他也警告说，如果伊朗领导人试图切断世界的能源供应，美方将采取更激烈的行动。

Matthew Pottinger, who was a deputy national security adviser in the first Trump administration, said in an interview that Mr. Trump had indicated he could decide to pursue ambitious war goals that would take weeks at least.

第一届特朗普政府的副国家安全顾问博明(Matthew Pottinger)在接受采访时表示，从特朗普的言论来看，他可能会决定追求需要至少数周时间才能实现的宏大战争目标。

“In his press conference, I could hear him circling back to a rationale for fighting a bit longer given that the regime is still signaling it won’t be deterred and is still trying to control the Strait of Hormuz,” said Mr. Pottinger, now the chair of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a group that advocates a close U.S. partnership with Israel and confrontation with Iran.

“在他的新闻发布会上，我能听出他正绕回到‘多打一段时间’的论证上，因为该政权仍在发出不会被慑服的信号，并仍试图控制霍尔木兹海峡，”博明说道。他目前是保卫民主基金会(FDD)中国项目的负责人，该组织主张美国与以色列建立紧密的伙伴关系并对抗伊朗。

“He doesn’t want to have to fight a ‘sequel’ war,” Mr. Pottinger added.

“他不希望到时候又要打一场‘续集’战争，”博明补充道。

Since President Trump launched a new war with Iran, he has portrayed it as a shock-and-awe assault with few lasting consequences, especially for Americans. On Monday in Florida, he called it a “brief disruption.”

自特朗普总统对伊朗发动新的战争以来，他始终将其描述为一场震慑式打击，几乎不会产生长期后果，对美国人而言尤其如此。周一在佛罗里达州，他称这场战争只是一次“短暂的干扰”。

Experts say it is rapidly becoming something else entirely: a jolt to the global security order and economy that far exceeds those delivered by other recent conflicts in the Middle East.

但专家表示，这场战争正迅速演变成完全不同的局面：它对全球安全秩序与经济的冲击，已远超近期中东其他冲突带来的影响。

Mr. Trump’s war, now nearly two weeks old, is already reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and strategic partnerships. Countries typically shielded from regional conflict, like Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates, have faced retaliatory Iranian fire. The fallout could disrupt midterm elections in the United States, tilt the war calculus in Ukraine and force China into a major economic pivot.

特朗普发动的这场战争持续了近两周，目前已在重塑旅行模式、能源依赖格局、生活成本、贸易航线与战略伙伴关系。塞浦路斯、阿联酋等以往不受地区冲突波及的国家也遭到了伊朗的报复性袭击。这场战争的连锁反应可能扰乱美国中期选举、改变乌克兰战场的博弈格局，并迫使中国做出重大经济战略调整。

Those effects may compound if Mr. Trump presses ahead with the war, particularly if Iran escalates its counterattacks and blocks ship traffic through the critical oil passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Some economists are already invoking a dreaded memory for any U.S. president — the specter of oil-shock-induced stagflation, with growth stalling and prices roaring upward.

如果特朗普继续推进战争，尤其是伊朗升级反击、封锁石油运输要道霍尔木兹海峡的航运，这些影响还会进一步叠加。部分经济学家提及一段令历任美国总统闻之色变的往事——石油冲击引发滞胀的阴霾，即经济增长停滞、物价大幅飙升的局面。

“I’m old enough to remember the events of the ’70s, and a world in which oil price spikes were a significant issue both economically and for a president who might be facing elections,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution. “That doesn’t seem to have been priced into the decision making,” she added.

“我这个年纪还记得70年代的那些事，当年油价飙升不仅是重大经济问题，对面临大选的总统而言也是大事，”布鲁金斯学会伊朗问题专家苏珊娜·马洛尼表示。“而这一点似乎并未被纳入本次决策的考量范围。”

周二北京某加油站。全球许多地区预计将在加油站率先感受到这场战争带来的影响。

The war is most immediately and viscerally affecting the Middle East. Attacks across the region have killed more than a thousand people and wrought extensive damage to critical infrastructure and the environment — unleashing plumes of noxious smoke and black rain over Tehran after Israeli strikes on fuel depots.

这场战争对中东的影响最为直接、最为深切。席卷整个地区的袭击已造成逾千人死亡，关键基础设施与生态环境遭到严重破坏——以色列空袭伊朗油库后，德黑兰上空弥漫着有毒浓烟，还降下了黑雨。

The conflict has shaken the foundation of the Persian Gulf economies, cracking their carefully cultivated images as safe havens in a turbulent region. Iran has launched more attacks on the Gulf countries than it has on Israel, according to an American war monitor, hitting five-star hotels, damaging desalination plants and sending tourists fleeing for evacuation routes.

这场冲突动摇了波斯湾各国经济的根基，击碎了它们精心打造的动荡地区安全避风港的形象。据美国一家战争监测机构统计，伊朗对海湾国家发动的袭击次数超过对以色列的袭击，目标包括五星级酒店、海水淡化厂，大批游客仓皇寻找撤离通道。

Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, have come under attack. European officials are still attempting to rescue their citizens who have been marooned in what once seemed like tranquil vacation spots. The U.S. State Department, after initially facing criticism for acting too slowly, said it had organized over two dozen charter flights and had evacuated thousands of Americans from the Middle East.

阿联酋迪拜和阿布扎比的机场均遭袭击。欧洲官员仍在设法营救滞留在这些昔日宁静度假胜地的本国公民。美国国务院最初因行动迟缓遭到批评，目前表示已组织20余架包机，从中东撤离了数千名美国公民。

Experts warn that reputational damage will linger in the Gulf. Beyond the wealth those countries possess, “the real currency was confidence,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in a panel discussion this week.

专家警告，海湾国家的声誉受损将长期持续。国际战略研究所中东问题专家埃米尔·霍卡耶姆本周在一场专题讨论会上表示，除了拥有的财富，这些国家“真正的硬通货是信心”。

“It wasn’t just the money, it’s the fact that they could realistically tell people it’s a good business environment, you will feel safe,” he added. “We’re immune to regional politics. You can invest here. You can use us for your trade, your airlines, for your comms, your tech and so on. And that’s what the Iranians are after, right?”

他还说：“关键不只是财富，而是它们能实实在在地告诉外界：这里营商环境良好，你们会感到安全。我们不受地区政局动荡影响。你们可以在这里投资，可以利用我们开展贸易、航空、通信、科技等业务。而这正是伊朗想要摧毁的，不是吗？”

周日，从阿联酋迪拜撤离的航班抵达坦桑尼亚后，乘客们陆续下机。

For much of the rest of the world, one of the first pains from the war was felt at the gasoline pump. When tankers stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on global markets, though they have receded somewhat in recent days. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Monday that his country would send 10 warships to the region, potentially to escort vessels through the strait.

对世界其他大多数地区而言，这场战争带来的首个阵痛体现在加油站。油轮暂停通行霍尔木兹海峡后，全球市场油价一度突破每桶100美元，尽管近日有所回落。法国总统马克龙周一表示，法国将向该地区派遣10艘军舰，或为穿越海峡的船只提供护航。

Trump administration officials and European leaders have explored options in recent days to reduce gasoline prices, which have risen along with the global price of oil. Economists have begun warning that if the oil shock persists for weeks, it could ignite an escalating set of price increases across economies, while weighing on economic growth — a fate similar to the stagflation that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution.

特朗普政府官员与欧洲各国领导人近日已在研究平抑汽油价格的方案，美国油价已随全球原油价格同步上涨。经济学家已发出警告：如果此次石油冲击持续数周，可能引发各经济体的物价全面持续攀升，同时拖累经济增长——这与1979年伊朗革命后出现的滞胀局面如出一辙。

“Whether history repeats itself all depends on how long this conflict lasts,” researchers at Deutsche Bank wrote this week.

“历史是否会重演完全取决于这场冲突持续多久，”德意志银行的研究人员本周在报告中写道。

The loss of access to cheap oil is an emerging risk for China — and not the only one. Chinese exporters have become increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern consumers. A disruption to Middle Eastern economies could limit sales of Chinese goods there, undercutting China’s own growth.

对中国而言，无法再获取廉价石油是一个正在显现的风险，但并非唯一风险。中国出口商对中东消费市场的依赖度日益提升，中东经济动荡可能抑制当地对中国商品的需求，进而冲击中国自身的经济增长。

The surge in oil prices is, conversely, helping Russia — by bolstering the oil revenues that help to fund Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine. Europeans are also worried that the heavy fighting in the Middle East will indirectly harm Ukrainian defenses: The more interceptor missiles are used by the United States and its allies to counter Iran, the fewer are available to Ukraine for its defense against Russian attacks.

反过来，油价飙升却让俄罗斯从中受益——石油收入增加，可以为莫斯科在乌克兰的战争机器提供更多资金。欧洲国家也担忧，中东的激烈战事将间接损害乌克兰的防御能力：美国及其盟友为拦截伊朗袭击消耗的拦截弹越多，能提供给乌克兰抵御俄罗斯进攻的弹药就越少。

周五空袭期间特拉维夫上空的景象。

In the United States, the war appears already to be a political liability for Mr. Trump. It has relatively little public support compared to previous wars. Democrats are seizing on rising energy costs to court voters ahead of midterm elections that were already focused on the rising cost of living.

在美国国内，这场战争显然已成为特朗普的政治包袱。与此前的历次战争相比，这场战争的民众支持率相对较低。中期选举的核心议题本就是生活成本不断上涨，民主党人正抓住能源价格攀升的问题争取选民。

More immediately, it has cast a shadow over an event Mr. Trump had hoped would be a signature American triumph under his presidency: the men’s soccer World Cup, which is set to kick off this summer in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Iran is one of the teams scheduled to compete. But it’s unclear if its team will be able to — and what might happen if it can’t.

更直接的是，这场战争给特朗普原本寄望成为其总统任期标志性胜利的盛事蒙上阴影：今年夏天将在美国、加拿大和墨西哥开赛的男足世界杯。伊朗是原定参赛的球队之一，但目前伊朗队能否参赛仍不明确，若它无法参赛，可能引发何种后果亦未可知。

Publicly, Mr. Trump has trumpeted the military might that the United States and Israel have poured into the war, while offering shifting explanations for what prompted the attacks on Iran and varying timelines for when it might end. He has acknowledged some costs of the war, including the American service members who have been killed since it began.

在公开场合，特朗普大肆宣扬美以为这场战争倾注的军事力量，但对发动对伊攻击的动机给出反复无常的解释，对战争何时结束也给出不同时间表。他也承认了战争带来的部分代价，包括开战以来阵亡的美军士兵。

The president has largely dismissed other downsides, like oil price increases, as temporary. He has alarmed allies by offering few concrete plans for how Iran’s government will function after the war.

对于油价上涨等其他负面影响，特朗普总统大多时候称其只是暂时现象，不予重视。他对战后伊朗政府如何运作几乎未提出具体方案，这令盟友深感不安。

In Europe, that has raised concerns of a cratering Iranian economy that could eventually drive new waves of migrants across the Iran-Turkey border. For Europeans, that summons memories of the continent’s migration crisis a decade ago, when conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and Africa led more than a million people to seek refuge in Europe, leading to a right-wing backlash in countries like Germany.

在欧洲，这引发了人们的担忧：伊朗经济若崩盘，最终可能引发新一波移民潮穿越伊土边境。对欧洲人而言，这唤起了十年前欧洲移民危机的记忆——当时中东与非洲的冲突和贫困导致超百万人前往欧洲寻求庇护，在德国等国引发了右翼势力的强烈反弹。

“The United States and Israel have been waging war against Iran for over a week. We share many of their goals,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany on Tuesday. “But with each day of the war, more questions arise. We are particularly concerned that there appears to be no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.”

德国总理默茨周二表示：“美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争已超过一周。我们与他们的诸多目标是一致的。但战争每持续一天，就会产生更多疑问。我们尤为担忧的是，目前各方似乎没有制定出共同方案，推动这场战争迅速、妥善地结束。”

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.

一项仍在进行中的军事调查已经认定，美国应对一次致命的“战斧”巡航导弹袭击伊朗一所小学并造成大量伤亡的事件负责。多名美国官员以及了解初步调查结果的人士透露了这一结论。

The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found. Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, people briefed on the investigation said.

初步调查发现，2月28日对沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学建筑的袭击是美军目标定位错误所致。当时美军正在对相邻的一处伊朗军事基地实施打击，而该小学建筑原为该基地的一部分。了解调查情况的人士称，美国中央司令部的军官使用了国防情报局提供的过时数据，制定了打击坐标。

Officials emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that there are important unanswered questions about why the outdated information had not been double checked.

官员们强调，这些结论仍属初步调查结果，目前仍有重要问题没有得到解答，例如为什么这些过时信息没有经过复核。

Striking a school full of children is sure to be recorded as one of the most devastating single military errors in recent decades. Iranian officials have said the death toll was at least 175 people, most of them children.

对一所满是儿童的学校发动打击无疑将被记录为近几十年来最严重的单次军事失误之一。伊朗官员称，死亡人数至少为175人，其中大多数是儿童。

While the overall finding was largely expected — the United States is the only country involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles — it has already cast a shadow on the U.S. military operation in Iran.

尽管总体调查结果基本在意料之中——美国是参与冲突中唯一使用“战斧”导弹的国家——但这一事件已经给美国在伊朗的军事行动蒙上阴影。

President Trump’s attempts to sidestep the blame for the strike have also already complicated the inquiry, leaving officials who have reviewed the findings showing U.S. culpability expressing unease. The people interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the ongoing investigation and Mr. Trump’s assertion at one point that Iran, not the United States, was responsible.

特朗普总统试图回避此次袭击责任的做法也已使调查变得棘手，让那些审阅了调查结果，看到美国负有责任的官员们感到不安。接受本文采访的人士均要求匿名，理由是调查仍在进行且情况敏感，而且特朗普一度声称应对此事负责的是伊朗，而非美国。

“As The New York Times acknowledges in its own reporting, the investigation is still ongoing,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement.

“正如《纽约时报》在自己的报道中所承认的那样，调查仍在进行中，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。

Asked about this article as he left the White House on Wednesday for a trip to promote his economic agenda in Ohio and Kentucky, Mr. Trump replied, “I don’t know about that.”

周三，特朗普在离开白宫前往俄亥俄州和肯塔基州宣传其经济议程时被问及这篇报道，他回答说：“我对此并不了解。”

People briefed on the investigation said many questions were yet to be answered around why outdated information was used and who failed to verify the data.

知情人士表示，调查人员仍在试图弄清许多问题，例如为什么会使用过时的信息，以及是谁未能核实这些数据。

Still, the error has not surprised current and former officials.

不过，这一失误并没有让现任和前任官员感到意外。

2月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前，工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。

The school, in the town of Minab, is on the same block as buildings used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy, a top target of the U.S. military strikes. The site of the school was originally part of the base. Officials briefed on the inquiry said the building was not always used as a school, though it is not clear precisely when the school opened on the site.

这所学校位于米纳卜市，与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军使用的一些建筑处在同一街区，而后者正是美军打击行动的首要目标之一。学校所在地原本是军事基地的一部分。了解调查情况的官员表示，这栋建筑并非一直用作学校，但目前尚不清楚学校具体何时在此开办。

A visual investigation by The Times showed the building housing the school had been fenced off from the military base between 2013 and 2016.

《纽约时报》通过影像分析发现，2013年至2016年之间，这栋用于学校的建筑已用围栏与军事基地隔开。

Satellite imagery reviewed by The Times showed that watchtowers that once stood near the building had been removed, three public entrances were opened to the school, ground was cleared and play areas including a sports field were painted on asphalt, and walls were painted blue and pink.

《纽约时报》获得的卫星图像显示，曾经矗立在该建筑附近的瞭望塔已被拆除，学校新设三个公共入口，地面被清理平整，柏油地面上还画出了包括运动场在内的活动区域，墙壁也被粉刷成蓝色和粉色。

The “target coding” provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the military intelligence agency that helps develop targets, labeled the school building as a military target when it was passed to Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the war, according to people briefed on the preliminary findings of the investigation.

了解调查初步结果的人士称，由国防情报局（负责协助制定目标的军事情报机构）提供的“目标编码”在移交给中央司令部（负责监管战争的军事总部）时，将学校建筑标记为军事目标。

Investigators do not yet fully understand how the outdated data was sent to Central Command or whether the Defense Intelligence Agency had updated information.

调查人员目前尚未完全弄清楚这些过时数据是如何给到了中央司令部，也不清楚国防情报局当时是否掌握最新信息。

Military targeting is very complex and involves multiple agencies. Many officers would have been responsible for verifying that the data is correct, and officers at Central Command are responsible for checking the information they receive from the Defense Intelligence Agency or another intelligence agency. But in a fast-moving situation, like the opening days of a war, information is sometimes not verified.

军事目标的锁定是一项极其复杂的工作，涉及多个机构。许多军官都应负责核实数据的准确性，而中央司令部的军官也有责任检查来自国防情报局或其他情报机构的信息。但在战争初期这种快速变化的情况下，信息有时得不到核实。

In addition to the Defense Intelligence Agency and Central Command, investigators are examining the work of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, known as the N.G.A., which provides and examines satellite imagery of potential targets.

除了国防情报局和中央司令部，调查人员正在审查美国国家地理空间情报局的工作，该机构负责提供并分析潜在目标的卫星图像。

U.S. officials and others emphasized that the investigation was ongoing and there was more to learn, according to people briefed on the inquiry. Officials from Central Command declined to comment. Officials from the Defense Intelligence Agency referred questions to the Pentagon, which declined to comment, saying the incident was under investigation. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

了解调查情况的人士称，美国官员和其他人士强调，调查仍在进行中，还有更多情况有待了解。中央司令部官员拒绝置评。国防情报局官员将问题转给五角大楼，五角大楼拒绝置评，称该事件正在调查中。国家地理空间情报局未立即回应置评请求。

The Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency have dozens, even hundreds, of analysts at combatant commands who work with military operational planners and intelligence offices to develop targets.

国防情报局与国家地理空间情报局在各作战司令部派驻有数十甚至上百名分析师，他们与军事行动规划人员及情报部门合作，共同制定打击目标。

When the Defense Intelligence Agency’s targeting data is older, intelligence officers are expected to use imagery or data from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to update and verify the target.

当国防情报局提供的目标数据较为陈旧时，情报官员通常需要使用国家地理空间情报局提供的影像或数据来更新并核实目标。

While Mr. Trump has made targeting Iran’s navy a top priority of the war to prevent it from interfering with global commerce in the region, historically it has not been a top priority of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has focused more on Iran’s missiles and other priorities like China and North Korea.

尽管特朗普总统将打击伊朗海军列为战争的首要任务之一，以防其干扰该地区的全球商业航运，但从历史上看，这并非国防情报局的优先事项——该机构更关注伊朗的导弹能力，以及中国和朝鲜等其他重点目标。

Satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos assembled by The Times visual investigation team indicate that the school was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred around the same time as attacks on the naval base. A Times analysis showed that base was hit again within around two hours of the first strikes.

《纽约时报》的视觉调查团队整理的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实的视频显示，这所学校是在对海军基地发动袭击的同一时段遭到精确打击而严重损毁的。时报的分析显示，该基地在首轮袭击后约两小时内再次遭到打击。

A video uploaded Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The Times also shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking the naval base beside the school in Minab on Feb. 28.

上周日，伊朗半官方媒体迈赫尔通讯社上传的一段视频也显示（时报对视频进行了核实），2月28日，一枚“战斧”巡航导弹击中了米纳卜市这所学校旁边的海军基地。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have declined to comment on the strike, other than to say it is under investigation. Despite that, the president has tried at times to put the blame on Iran.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯及其他政府官员拒绝就此次袭击发表评论，仅表示事件仍在调查中。尽管如此，总统仍多次试图将责任归咎于伊朗。

“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Saturday, as Mr. Hegseth stood beside him, adding: “They’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”

“依我所见、根据我看到的情况，那是伊朗干的，”特朗普周六在“空军一号”上对记者说。当时海格塞思就站在他旁边。特朗普还补充说：“正如你们所知道的，他们的弹药非常不精准，完全没有精度。那就是伊朗干的。”

On Monday, a Times reporter asked Mr. Trump why he was the only official in his administration blaming Iran. “Because I just don’t know enough about it,” Mr. Trump answered, asserting incorrectly that Iran might also have Tomahawk missiles but adding that he would accept the results of the inquiry into what happened.

周一，当《纽约时报》记者问特朗普，为什么他是其政府中唯一将责任归咎于伊朗的官员时，特朗普回答说：“因为我对这件事还不够了解。”他还错误地声称伊朗可能也拥有“战斧”导弹，但表示自己会接受调查结果。

Although most presidents might refrain from commenting or couch their statements while an investigation is underway, Mr. Trump has not hesitated to weigh in, and has not fully backed down even as evidence has mounted of U.S. culpability.

尽管大多数总统在调查进行期间可能会避免发表评论或措辞谨慎，但特朗普却毫不犹豫地发表看法，即使越来越多证据显示美国负有责任，他也没有完全收回自己的说法。

On Tuesday, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, reiterated that Mr. Trump would accept the findings of the investigation.

周二，白宫新闻秘书莱维特再次表示，特朗普将接受调查结果。

While the investigation into the school is not complete, the use of old data evoked the biggest misstep of the Kosovo war.

尽管对学校的调查尚未结束，但使用旧数据这一情况，让人想起了科索沃战争中最大的失误。

In 1999, old, outdated maps and poor tradecraft led the C.I.A. to provide erroneous targeting data to the military, resulting in an airstrike on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade that killed three Chinese citizens. The C.I.A. wrongly assessed that the building was the headquarters of a Yugoslav arms agency.

1999年，由于过时地图和糟糕的情报工作，中央情报局向军方提供了错误的目标数据，导致误炸贝尔格莱德中国大使馆，造成三名中国公民死亡。当时中情局错误地判断该建筑是南斯拉夫一家军火机构的总部。

“Database maintenance is one of the basic elements of our intelligence effort, but it is also one that has suffered in recent years as our work force has been spread thin,” George J. Tenet, the C.I.A. director at the time, told a congressional committee in 1999.

“数据库维护是我们情报工作的基本要素之一，但近年来，由于我们的人力资源捉襟见肘，这方面也受到了影响，”时任中情局局长乔治·特尼特在1999年对国会委员会表示。

Military planners assumed the intelligence agency had verified the site and ordered the strike.

当时的军事规划人员以为情报机构已经核实了该地点，于是下令实施了打击。

Taiwan has grown accustomed to a near daily drumbeat of Chinese military planes flying close by, part of Beijing’s campaign to pressure the island it claims as its own. But lately, Taiwan has been facing an unexpected puzzle: Where have the planes gone?

台湾早已习惯了几乎每天都会响起的中国军机逼近的隆隆战鼓，这是北京对这个它声称拥有主权的岛屿施压行动的一部分。但最近，台湾面对着一个意想不到的谜团：那些飞机都去哪儿了？

For 12 of the past 13 days, no Chinese military flights were recorded near Taiwan. The sole exception was Sunday when two planes were seen approaching the island, according to daily data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

根据台湾国防部发布的每日数据，在过去的13天里，有12天未录得中国军机在台湾附近飞行。唯一的例外是周日，当时发现有两架飞机接近该岛。

“It is such a stark change from established behavior,” Ben Lewis, the founder of PLATracker, a website that collates the data from the Taiwanese defense ministry.

“这与长期以来的行为模式相比，是一个极其显著的变化，”汇总台湾国防部数据的网站PLATracker创始人本·刘易斯表示。

“This gap in activity is the longest we have seen since 2021,” Mr. Lewis said. That year, there was a three-week stretch that saw only five flights in total, and part of that time coincided with a tropical storm that churned around Taiwan. This time, the weather has been stable.

“这段活动真空期是自2021年以来我们见过的最长的一次，”刘易斯说。那一年曾有过一段持续三周的时间，总共只有五架次飞行，且其中一部分时间正值热带风暴在台湾周边肆虐。而这一次，天气状况一直很稳定。

Lulls in the number of People’s Liberation Army military flights are not new, including during China’s weeklong annual legislative session, which ends on Thursday. But in the past, there was still usually a smattering of flights at that time of year, according to the PLATracker. The fall was all the more striking against the buildup of Chinese military flights over recent years, Mr. Lewis said. Taiwan recorded about 10 Chinese military flights a day on average last year, and on some days the number went up to dozens.

解放军军机飞行数量的间歇性减少并非新鲜事，包括在中国为期一周的年度立法会议期间——该会议将于周四结束。但根据PLATracker的数据，往年这段时间通常仍会有零星的飞行。刘易斯表示，考虑到近年来中国军机活动规模的持续扩大，此次的下降显得尤为突兀。去年，台湾平均每天录得约10架次中国军机，有时一天甚至高达数十架次。

周一，出席中国全国人大年度会议的军队代表。

Analysts have offered several possible explanations, including that China may be setting the stage for President Trump’s planned summit with President Xi Jinping. China may also be trying to conserve fuel as oil prices rise because of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

分析人士提出了几种可能的解释，其中包括中国可能正在为习近平主席与特朗普总统计划中的峰会做铺垫。此外，由于美以对伊朗开战导致油价上涨，中国也可能正试图节省燃料。

Many experts pushed back on speculation that Beijing is deliberately reducing tensions as a prelude to military action.

许多专家反驳了有关北京正刻意缓解紧张局势，作为军事行动前奏的猜测。

China’s Ministry of National Defense has not commented on the falloff. Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, cautioned last week against reading the decline as a Chinese retreat from military threats against Taiwan.

中国国防部尚未就此次活动减少置评。台湾国防部长顾立雄上周发出提醒，告诫不要将这种减少解读为中国放弃对台军事威胁。

“We can’t simply look at whether the fighter aircraft are coming,” Mr. Koo told reporters in Taipei. “We need to look at a range of indicators.”

“我们不能只看攻机有没有来这个状况，”顾立雄在台北告诉记者，“我们还是要看各项的征候。”

Notably, the Chinese navy has not pulled back.

值得注意的是，中国海军并没有减少活动。

“We haven’t seen a comparable decrease in the reported number of P.L.A. naval vessels around Taiwan,” said Brian Hart, an expert in Washington, referring to the People’s Liberation Army. “The dip seems to be isolated to air activity.”

“我们并没有看到通报的台湾周边解放军海军舰艇数量出现类似的下降，”华盛顿专家、战略与国际研究中心中国实力项目副主任布莱恩·哈特表示，“这种下降似乎仅局限于空中活动。”

“Given the timing and the number of potential factors at play, it’s hard to say what exactly is shaping this behavior right now,” said Mr. Hart, who is the deputy director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

哈特说：“考虑到目前的时机和多种潜在因素的交织，很难确切说明究竟是什么在塑造当下的这种行为。”

He and other experts, as well as Taiwanese officials, will be watching to see whether the flights increase after China’s legislative session.

他和其他专家以及台湾官员将密切观察在中国立法会议结束后，飞行次数是否会回升。

今年1月，台湾士兵在台中举行的一场军事演习中展示青天白日旗。

Some analysts also said that Mr. Xi may be dialing back the flights ahead of the meeting with Mr. Trump in Beijing, which is scheduled for early April, to bolster his argument that it is Taiwan, and not China, that is provoking tensions between the sides.

一些分析人士还表示，习近平可能会在4月初北京会见特朗普之前减少飞行，以支持他的论点——在台海煽风点火的不是中国而是台湾。

Beijing has cast President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan as a dangerous separatist bent on rejecting the prospect of unification, and risking war. Many Taiwanese and many Western governments see China as being the aggressor, including through military exercises that simulate an invasion or blockage of the island.

北京将台湾总统赖清德定性为危险的“分裂分子”，认为他执意拒绝统一前景并甘冒战争风险。而许多台湾民众和西方政府则认为是中国咄咄逼人，包括通过模拟入侵或封锁岛屿的军事演习来施压。

Given that Mr. Trump’s administration is already engaged in war with Iran, “I think that Xi doesn’t want Trump to think that Beijing is adding to the trouble,” said Ou Hsi-fu, a deputy chief executive officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a body in Taipei that receives funds from Taiwan’s government.

考虑到特朗普政府已经卷入了与伊朗的战争，“我认为习不想让川普觉得北京在添乱，”受台湾政府资助的台北国防安全研究院副执行长欧锡富表示。

“Beijing wants the Xi-Trump summit to go ahead smoothly, maintaining China’s image as a great power on equal footing with the United States,” Mr. Ou said.

“北京还希望川习会顺利进行，保持与美国平起平坐的大国形象，”他说。

The military flights are the mostly widely noted public measure of Chinese military pressure on Taiwan; they have increased since 2020, accelerating after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taipei in 2022. China retaliated against that visit by flying jets, sailing ships and even firing missiles around the island.

军机飞行是外界关注度最高的中国对台军事压力指标；自2020年以来，此类活动不断增加，并在2022年时任美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问台北后加速。当时，中国通过出动战机、舰艇甚至在岛屿周边发射导弹进行了报复。

Some experts believe that the current reduction in flights may reflect disruption caused by the official purges in the Chinese air force, including in the Eastern Theater Command, the region of the Chinese military that oversees Taiwan. The Chinese armed forces have been shaken by widespread purges of generals and other top leaders.

一些专家认为，目前的飞行减少可能反映了中国空军内部官员清洗所导致的干扰，包括负责监督台湾区域的东部战区。中国武装力量此前因将领及其他高层领导人的广泛清洗而产生动荡。

Another possible factor may simply be that the air force is intentionally altering its training routines, said K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

美国亚洲研究局非常驻研究员汤广正(K. Tristan Tang)表示，另一个可能的因素或许只是空军在有意改变其训练常规。

“What we are seeing now has actually been developing for more than half a year,” Mr. Tang said, citing a recent pattern of more days without flights compared to the previous year. “The difference is that the decline has become much more noticeable recently.”

“我们现在看到的现象实际上已经发展了半年多，”他是指近期与去年相比，出现了更多“无飞行日”模式。“不同之处在于，这种下降在最近变得更加显而易见。”

Down a stairway and behind an unmarked door, dozens of men toil in a vast basement workshop in Ukraine. Wearing headlamps, they lean over circuit boards as wisps of smoke rise from soldering irons.

沿着楼梯往下，在一扇没有任何标记的门后面，几十名男子正在乌克兰一个巨大的地下车间里忙碌着。他们戴着头灯，俯身在电路板上工作，电烙铁升起缕缕烟雾。

A year ago, most Ukrainian defense companies could not produce these boards, which are key ingredients in small exploding drones. But this advance, among others, has helped the country reach a milestone: It can now make drones with no components imported from China.

一年前，大多数乌克兰国防企业还无法生产这些电路板，而它们正是小型自杀式无人机的关键部件。但这一进展以及其他突破帮助乌克兰达成了一个里程碑：如今它可以制造完全不依赖中国进口零部件的无人机。

Ukraine is prioritizing self-sufficiency in the production of drones as they increasingly dominate the battlefield. They now account for more than 90 percent of Russian casualties, according to Maj. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.

随着无人机在战场上日益占据主导地位，乌克兰正把重点放在无人机生产的自给自足上。乌克兰无人系统部队指挥官罗伯特·布罗夫迪少校表示，俄军伤亡现在有九成以上是由无人机造成的。

Drones are also playing a major role in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. The Iranian military has attacked countries in the region with hundreds of its Shahed drones, and the United States has used its own version of the Shahed for the first time in combat.

无人机在美以对伊朗的战争中也发挥着重要作用。伊朗军方动用数百架沙赫德无人机对其他中东国家发起袭击，而美国也首次在实战中使用了自己的沙赫德版本。

Ukraine will not be mass-producing drones with no Chinese components anytime soon, because it’s still much cheaper to use them. Given China’s dominance of global manufacturing, it is hard to define any drone as truly “China-free.” Many components made outside China still contain Chinese parts or raw materials.

不过，乌克兰短期内还不会大规模生产完全不含中国零部件的无人机，因为使用这些零部件仍然便宜得多。鉴于中国在全球制造业的主导地位，不含中国元素的无人机很那做到。许多在中国境外制造的零部件仍然含有中国的零件或原材料。

But Ukrainian officials believe it is important to make drones with as few components from China as possible, and to be able to continue making drones if Chinese supplies should be cut off.

但乌克兰官员认为，制造尽可能少用中国组件的无人机，并且在中国供应可能被切断的情况下能够继续制造无人机，这一点很重要。

Ukraine is one of many nations that have been working to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains. The United States has limited the use of Chinese products in military hardware and other critical systems over security concerns. In addition, global shocks in recent years have shown the vulnerabilities that come with making China the single source of any product.

乌克兰只是众多试图减少对中国供应链依赖的国家之一。出于安全考虑，美国已经限制在军用硬件和其他关键系统中使用中国产品。此外，近年来的全球冲击也表明，如果把中国作为某种产品的单一来源，将带来巨大的脆弱性。

乌克兰士兵走过扎波罗热地区一架俄罗斯第一人称视角无人机的残骸，摄于去年。

“Given the risks of sourcing components from China, which is unfriendly to us, the main task is to produce them in Ukraine,” Major Brovdi said in an interview. “The strength of the Ukrainian manufacturer lies in the fact that import substitution has already taken place.”

“考虑到从中国采购零部件的风险——而中国对我们并不友好——主要任务就是在乌克兰本土生产这些部件，”布罗夫迪少校在采访中说。“乌克兰制造商的优势在于，进口替代已经实现。”

Two companies in Ukraine that have built “China-free” drones were picked to compete for contracts in a Pentagon “drone dominance program” under which the United States plans to buy thousands of low-cost attack drones. One of the companies, Ukrainian Defense Drones Tech Corporation, where the men were soldering circuit boards in the basement workshop, was among 11 in all selected last week for possible American drone orders.

乌克兰两家制造“无中国零部件”无人机的企业被选中参与五角大楼“无人机主导计划”的合同竞争。根据这一计划，美国打算采购数千架低成本攻击无人机。其中一家是乌克兰国防无人机科技公司，也就是那些男子在地下车间焊接电路板的公司。该公司是上周最终入选可能获得美国无人机订单的11家企业之一。

Ukraine Defense Drones makes most of its own components, and European suppliers fill most of the gaps.

乌克兰国防无人机公司自行生产大部分零部件，其余则由欧洲的供应商填补。

That reflects a sea change over the course of the war. In the first year after the Russian invasion in February 2022, nearly all of Ukraine’s drones came from China.

这反映出了俄乌战争期间的一个巨大变化。在2022年2月俄罗斯入侵后的第一年，乌克兰几乎所有的无人机都来自中国。

As demand surged, Beijing imposed export restrictions in 2023 and expanded them in 2024. While China is officially neutral in the war, experts say that Beijing has given its partner Russia preferential access to components that can still be exported.

随着需求激增，北京于2023年实施了出口限制，并于2024年扩大了限制范围。虽然中国在战争中官方保持中立，但专家表示，北京让其伙伴俄罗斯在获取仍可出口的组件方面享有优先待遇。

As the rules tightened, Ukraine resorted to middlemen to buy some parts, and Ukrainian companies began to view the Chinese market as increasingly unreliable. Kyiv turned its focus to building its own drones, and eventually to doing so with fewer Chinese components.

随着中国出口管制的收紧，乌克兰不得不通过中间商购买一些零件，而乌克兰公司也开始认为中国市场越来越不可靠。基辅将重心转向自行生产无人机，并逐渐减少对中国零部件的依赖。

By 2024, the vast majority of drones that Ukraine sent to the front were assembled domestically — but still almost entirely with Chinese components. A year later, however, the share of parts from China in Ukraine’s drones had fallen to about 38 percent, according to the Ukrainian Council of Defense Industry and the Snake Island Institute, a think tank in Kyiv.

到2024年，乌克兰送往前线的绝大多数无人机都是国内组装的——但几乎所有零部件仍来自中国。不过一年之后，根据乌克兰国防工业委员会和基辅智库蛇岛研究所的数据，乌克兰无人机中来自中国的零部件比例已降至约38%。

Ukraine still buys cheaper Chinese components because the Ukrainian military needs huge numbers of drones and has a limited budget to buy them. Drone missions fail at very high rates, another reason that Ukraine tries to keep costs down.

乌克兰仍然购买价格更便宜的中国零部件，因为乌克兰军方的无人机需求量巨大，而预算又有限。无人机任务失败率也非常高，这也是乌克兰努力压低成本的原因之一。

According to a Ukrainian official who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive procurement issues, Ukrainian and Russian companies often buy parts from the same factories in China. Chinese bosses, the official said, keep a precise schedule at production sites so that Ukrainian and Russian buyers do not cross paths.

一名乌克兰官员表示，乌克兰和俄罗斯的公司往往从中国同一家工厂采购零部件。由于涉及敏感采购问题，这名官员要求匿名。他说，中国的工厂老板会精确安排生产时间表，以避免乌克兰和俄罗斯的买家在工厂相遇。

Col. Pavlo Palisa, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office and a military adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Kyiv was scaling up domestic weapons production in part to strengthen its hand in peace negotiations.

乌克兰总统办公室副主任、总统泽连斯基的军事顾问帕夫洛·帕利萨上校表示，基辅正在扩大国内武器生产，部分是为了在和平谈判中增强自己的筹码。

“If we import, that means dependency, and any dependency means a weaker position,” he said in an interview.

“如果我们依赖进口，就意味着依赖别人，而任何依赖都会让我们处于更弱的地位，”他在采访中说。

Expanding the sources of components, Colonel Palisa said, would make China less likely to impose further export restrictions, knowing that they would have a limited effect. “When there are alternatives, they don’t act up as much,” he said.

帕利萨上校表示，扩大零部件来源也会促使中国不愿进一步实施出口限制，因为知道那样的效果有限。“当存在替代方案时，他们就不会那么轻易采取限制措施，”他说。

Ukrainian Defense Drones, under the brand name F-Drones, produces exploding first-person-view quadcopter drones that have been used more than any other drone to destroy Russian heavy equipment.

乌克兰国防无人机公司以F-Drones品牌生产第一人称视角四轴旋翼攻击无人机，这种无人机在摧毁俄罗斯重型装备方面的使用率超过任何其他类型的无人机。

“The country was saved by $500 drones,” said Hnat Buyakin, the company’s founder, referring to the beginning of the war in 2022, when Ukraine was at a heavy disadvantage to Russia in personnel and ammunition. Soldiers improvised, modifying cheap Chinese drones in makeshift workshops along the front line to drop handmade bombs.

“拯救这个国家的是价值500美元的无人机，”该公司创始人赫纳特·布亚金说，他指的是2022年战争初期，当时乌克兰在人员和弹药方面远远落后于俄罗斯。士兵们临时想办法，在前线附近的简陋作坊里改装廉价的中国无人机，用来投掷自制炸弹。

Ukrainian Defense Drones began making drones in 2023. Initially, all of its components were Chinese. Within a year, however, it had localized production of carbon fiber frames and antennas.

乌克兰国防无人机公司在2023年开始制造无人机。最初所有零部件都来自中国。然而一年之内，它就实现了碳纤维机架和天线的本土生产。

去年，在哈尔科夫地区，乌克兰士兵在掩体里制造无人机。

It is precision work. “These antennas are a separate kind of magic — a millimeter deviation in the wire and it doesn’t work properly,” Mr. Buyakin said. The company now produces up to 15,000 antennas a day.

这是一项精密工作。“这些天线是另一种意义上的魔法——导线只要偏差一毫米，就无法正常工作，”布亚金说。公司现在每天最多可以生产1.5万根天线。

By 2025, Ukrainian Defense Drones had expanded to produce flight controllers, speed regulators, radio modems and video transmission systems. Essentially, all its components were made in Ukraine except for the cameras.

到2025年，乌克兰国防无人机公司的产品扩展到飞控系统、速度调节器、无线电调制解调器和视频传输系统。基本上，除了摄像头外，所有部件都在乌克兰制造。

The company has since gained technology for cameras, too, which it hopes to produce in Europe. For now, it buys cameras from another Ukrainian company that imports parts from Europe.

该公司此后也获得了摄像头技术，并希望在欧洲生产。目前，它从另一家从欧洲进口零部件的乌克兰公司采购摄像头。

Mr. Buyakin described the limits to “China-free” production. While his company makes carbon frames for drones, for example, the carbon itself is imported, usually from China, because that is cheaper.

布亚金也谈到了“无中国零部件”生产的局限性。例如，他的公司虽然生产无人机的碳纤维机架，但碳纤维材料本身通常仍需要进口，往往来自中国，因为那样更便宜。

Batteries that power drones are also still largely produced in China, which dominates supply chains for battery materials like lithium and rare-earth metals.

为无人机供电的电池目前也大多在中国生产，因为中国在锂和稀土金属等电池材料供应链中占据主导地位。

Ukraine has lithium deposits, but they are undeveloped. Investing in them has been a goal of a Ukrainian agreement with the United States on mineral development.

乌克兰拥有锂矿藏，但尚未开发。投资这些资源一直是乌克兰与美国达成的矿产开发协议的目标之一。

Ukraine’s goals do not end at producing drones without Chinese components. Designs in Ukraine are updated monthly based on battlefield performance, a contrast with the slow pace of traditional weapons production.

乌克兰的目标不仅仅是生产不含中国零部件的无人机。乌克兰的无人机设计会根据战场表现进行每月更新，这与传统武器生产缓慢的节奏形成鲜明对比。

In his company’s move toward China-free manufacturing, Mr. Buyakin said, “We deliberately chose the most difficult path because Ukraine is now fighting for its place in a technological war, and we are gaining this experience with our own blood.”

谈到公司“去中国化”的转型努力时，布亚金说：“我们故意选择了一条最困难的道路，因为乌克兰正在一场技术战争中争夺立足之地，而我们正在用鲜血换取这份经验。”

In the political annals of the Islamic Republic of Iran, one of the first notorious public episodes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, the man just named as the country’s new supreme leader, occurred during the 2005 presidential election.

伊朗伊斯兰共和国政治史册记载的诸多臭名昭著的公开事件中，最早的一桩涉及新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的事件，发生在2005年总统大选期间。

After a dark-horse candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, surged abruptly into a runoff and eventual victory, the reformist politician who unexpectedly lost wrote an open letter to the supreme leader accusing his son Mojtaba of manipulating the vote.

当时，黑马候选人马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德异军突起，进入了决选，并最终获胜。那位意外落败的改革派政治人士随后给最高领袖写了一封公开信，指责其子穆杰塔巴操纵选票。

“You are well aware that the unwise intervention of the relatives and aides of some religious and political officials in the past has had a very negative consequence,” the opposition candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, wrote in the letter, published by two newspapers that were forced to suspend publication afterward.

“您很清楚，过去某些宗教和政治官员的亲属及助手不明智地干预政务，已经造成了极其负面的后果，”反对派候选人迈赫迪·卡鲁比在信中写道。该信由两家报纸刊发，它们随后被强令停刊。

Ever since, Mr. Khamenei has had the reputation of operating in the shadows, using the power of his father’s office to manipulate events in the Islamic republic in favor of the hard-line faction.

自此以后，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊便背负了在影子中运作的名声，利用其父的权力来操纵伊斯兰共和国的事务，使其向强硬派阵营倾斜。

That headquarters of the supreme leader, which he is now inheriting from his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has always played an outsize role in the country’s affairs.

他目前从父亲阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊手中继承的最高领袖办事机构，在该国事务中一直发挥着超乎寻常的作用。

周一在德黑兰，伊朗民众手持穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊及其父亲的海报，表达对新任最高领袖的支持。

In the 37 years that the elder Mr. Khamenei ruled before being killed in an American and Israeli attack, he transformed the office from a traditional religious affairs bureau with a political cast into a national security juggernaut with oversight of the military, intelligence, the economy, foreign affairs and, of course, the clergy.

在遭美以袭击身亡前，老哈梅内伊的37年执政将该机构从一个带有政治色彩的传统宗教事务局，转型为一个掌控军事、情报、经济、外交以及宗教界的国家安全巨无霸。

“Under Khamenei, it became a complete security, political and economic state within a state,” said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee who coauthored a report last January about the transformation.

“在哈梅内伊治下，它变成了一个集安全、政治和经济于一体的完整的‘国中之国’，”田纳西大学政治学教授赛义德·戈尔卡表示，他于去年1月参与撰写了一份关于这一转型的报告。

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, the second of four sons, was already considered the “mini supreme leader” advising his father on the office’s web of operations, Mr. Golkar added. His three brothers also worked there in advisory roles.

戈尔卡补充道，56岁的穆杰塔巴是四个儿子中的次子，此前已被视为“迷你最高领袖”，负责就该办事机构复杂的运作网络向其父提供建议。他的三个兄弟也在那里担任顾问职务。

President Trump has said that his assault on Iran should give him a role in picking the country’s next leader. Asked about the younger Mr. Khamenei at a news conference on Monday, Mr. Trump said, “We think it’s going to lead to more of the same problems for the country, so I was disappointed.” Analysts considered the choice a sign of the regime’s seeking continuity amid the tumult of the war.

特朗普总统曾表示，他对伊朗的打击应让他有权参与挑选该国的下一任领导人。在周一的新闻发布会上被问及小哈梅内伊时，特朗普说：“我们认为这会导致这个国家面临更多同样的问题，所以我感到很失望。”分析人士认为，这一选择标志着该政权在战争动荡中寻求连续性。

The name of the office is Bayt-e Rahbari in Farsi, meaning the House of the Supreme Leader, often known simply as the Bayt.

该办事机构的波斯语名称是Bayt-e Rahbari，意为“最高领袖府”，通常简称为“贝特”(Bayt)。

In Shiite Islam, tradition dictates that an ayatollah should establish a bayt to interact with followers on religious questions and to organize matters like charity. A son is often delegated to run it.

依据什叶派伊斯兰教传统，阿亚图拉应建立一个“贝特”，以便与信徒沟通宗教问题并组织慈善等事务。通常会委派一名儿子来负责管理。

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, added a political element to that model. When the ayatollah began fading before his death in 1989, his son Ahmad Khomeini became his gatekeeper. That prompted considerable grumbling about excessive interference by the Bayt, especially after Ahmad was accused of torpedoing as too liberal the main candidate expected to succeed Ayatollah Khomeini.

伊斯兰革命创始人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼为这一模式增添了政治色彩。当霍梅尼在1989年去世前身体每况愈下时，其子艾哈迈德·霍梅尼成为了他的“守门人”。这引发了关于贝特过度干预的强烈不满，尤其是艾哈迈德被指控排挤了一位被认为过于自由派的领袖继承人。

1979年，阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼（中）与其子艾哈迈德·霍梅尼（左一）结束在法国的流亡，回到德黑兰。

The secretive Bayt that the next leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, established was on a different order of magnitude. While the previous Bayt had dozens of employees, said Mr. Golkar, 4,000 people now work there, and 40,000 more are affiliated throughout the government.

继任领袖哈梅内伊建立的这个神秘的贝特，其规模完全不可同日而语。戈尔卡表示，之前的贝特只有数十名雇员，而现在那里有4000人，另外在政府各部门还有4万名下属人员。

Ayatollah Khamenei created mirror offices for every government ministry, appointing powerful deputies for foreign affairs, education, cultural affairs and other departments who were all given a mandate to ensure that government policy conformed to his wishes. Other teams steer military and intelligence matters. Mr. Trump imposed sanctions on the supreme leader’s office in 2019.

哈梅内伊为每一个政府部委都设立了镜像办公室，任命掌握重权的副手负责外交、教育、文化等部门，授权他们确保政府政策符合其意志。另有团队操控军事和情报事务。特朗普曾于2019年对最高领袖办公室实施制裁。

Lacking venerable religious credentials or popular support when he became supreme leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei set about consolidating his power through the security services and his Bayt.

1989年接任最高领袖时，由于缺乏宗教资历或民意支持，哈梅内伊着手通过安全部门和他的贝特来巩固权力。

Given his reliance on the security services to crack down on increasingly frequent waves of dissent, including fatally shooting thousands of street protesters months ago, Ayatollah Khamenei had surrounded himself with the military commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

鉴于他依赖安全部门镇压日益频繁的反抗浪潮（包括数月前射杀数千名街头抗议者），哈梅内伊身边一直环绕着伊斯兰革命卫队的指挥官。

The religious weight of the office declined further with the younger Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The son is a mid-ranking cleric, even if official statements immediately started referring to him as an “ayatollah.”

华盛顿保卫民主基金会高级研究员贝南·本·塔勒布卢表示，随着小哈梅内伊的任命，该职位的宗教分量进一步下降。尽管官方声明立即开始称其为“阿亚图拉”，但这位儿子其实只是名中层神职人员。

“Neither Khamenei was religiously qualified for the position, and it is almost certain that the new supreme leader will emulate his father and cultivate security ties,” said Mr. Taleblu.

“两位哈梅内伊在宗教层面上都不具备担任该职位的资格。几乎可以肯定，新任最高领袖将效仿其父，继续经营他与安全部门的关系，”塔勒布卢说。

The son is considered even more entwined with the Guards, particularly since he vetted the appointments of the latest generation of commanders and his history with them goes back to his teenage years, when he served in a noncombat role toward the end of the Iran-Iraq war, said Mr. Golkar.

戈尔卡指出，这位儿子被认为与革命卫队的关系更加盘根错节，特别是考虑到他曾负责审核最新一代将领的任命，且他与卫队的渊源可追溯到青少年时期——在两伊战争末期，他曾在其中担任非战斗职务。

Mojtaba Khamenei, who was 22 when his father took over as supreme leader, matured within the Bayt. Throughout those years, the regime’s authoritarian bent has increasingly overshadowed the theocracy that first emerged from the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在父亲接掌最高权力时年仅22岁，他在贝特内部逐渐成熟。在这些年里，该政权的威权倾向渐渐压过1979年伊斯兰革命产生的神权体制。

“Iran has already moved from a theocratic regime to the theocratic security system under Khamenei, and now it is moving toward a more complete security state under Mojtaba,” said Mr. Golkar.

“在哈梅内伊治下，伊朗已经从神权政体转变为神权安全体系；而现在，在穆杰塔巴治下，它正向一个更彻底的安全国家演变，”戈尔卡说。

Dr. Jay Miller’s once-in-a-lifetime family vacation to India took an unexpected twist on Feb. 28 when his Qatar Airways flight to Dallas made a U-turn about an hour after taking off from Doha, Qatar.

杰伊·米勒医生原本千载难逢的全家赴印度度假之旅在2月28日出现了意想不到的转折——当时他乘坐的卡塔尔航空飞往达拉斯的航班在从卡塔尔多哈起飞约一小时后突然掉头返航。

Israel and the United States had attacked Iran, which was launching rockets and drones in retaliation. Countries across the Middle East, including Qatar, had closed their airspace and canceled flights, stranding tens of thousands of travelers.

以色列和美国对伊朗发动袭击，而伊朗则以火箭和无人机进行报复。包括卡塔尔在内的多个中东国家关闭了领空并取消航班，数以万计的旅客因此滞留。

Back on the ground in Doha, Dr. Miller heard explosions so powerful that his hotel room’s windows shook.

回到多哈地面后，米勒医生听到了剧烈的爆炸声，他酒店房间的窗户都在震动。

“It was one of the moments when you tell your spouse you love them, which I did,” he said.

“那是一种会让你对配偶说‘我爱你’的时刻——我确实这么说了，”他说。

Dr. Miller, a 45-year-old pulmonary and critical care specialist, had left India a week earlier than his wife, Swathi Narra, and 5-year-old daughter, Devi, to return to his patients. It was Devi’s first trip to the country, and the family had seen wild leopards and visited the village where Swathi’s deceased father grew up.

45岁的米勒医生是一名肺病与重症监护专家。因为有病人要照顾，他比妻子斯瓦蒂·纳拉和五岁的女儿德维提前一周离开印度。那是德维第一次到印度旅行，一家人看到了野生豹子，还去了斯瓦蒂已故父亲成长的村子。

Now, he would be spending the next five nights alone in Doha on an emotional roller coaster, trying to distract himself by cautiously exploring the city. Some of his fellow guests at the Andaz Doha, too afraid even to go to their rooms on higher floors, sheltered in the hotel lobby all day.

现在，他将在多哈独自度过接下来的五个夜晚，情绪像坐过山车一样起伏，只能小心翼翼地在城里逛逛，试图分散注意力。一同住在多哈安达仕酒店的一些住客也和他一样，因为太害怕，甚至不敢回到高楼层的房间，整天呆在酒店大堂里。

He tried calling the U.S. State Department, filling out forms, and reaching out to Louisiana politicians — all fruitless. By Wednesday, a day after the State Department announced that travelers should not rely on the U.S. government to evacuate them, he decided to escape the region any way he could.

他尝试给美国国务院打电话、填写各种表格、联系路易斯安那州的政客——全都徒劳无功。到周三，也就是国务院宣布旅客不应指望美国政府会将他们撤离的第二天，他决定要不惜一切代价离开这个地区。

He and Swathi, still in India, furiously searched for flights that would get him anywhere outside the Middle East. The Doha airport was still closed, and flight options were scarce. Some jets were departing from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a roughly nine-hour drive away. Dr. Miller tried his luck.

他和仍在印度的斯瓦蒂疯狂地搜索能让他前往中东以外任何地方的航班。多哈机场仍然关闭，航班选择极为有限。有些航班从沙特阿拉伯的利雅得起飞，到那里大约有九个小时的车程。米勒医生决定碰碰运气。

He found a spot on a flight from Riyadh to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, selecting it because the departure time was a good fit given the long overland journey. He quickly applied online for visas to the two countries.

他弄到了一张从利雅得飞往埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴的机票，选择这个航班是因为考虑到漫长的陆路旅程，它的起飞时间很合适。他迅速在网上申请了这两个国家的签证。

“We felt we had to move on our own. There was not time or the circumstances to wait for someone,” he said, adding that an itinerary that initially felt “so crazy and far-fetched” no longer was.

他说，“我们觉得只能靠自己行动了。没有时间，也没有条件再等待别人来帮忙”，并补充道，一开始看起来“疯狂而难以想象”的行程，现在变得不再那么不可思议。

He hired a hotel-recommended driver to take him to the border with Saudi Arabia, then had to find another to get him through the visa and customs checkpoints, and a third to drive him from the border to King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. In all, the car services cost about $3,000.

他雇了酒店推荐的司机送他到沙特边境，然后必须另找一位司机带他通过签证和海关检查站，再找第三位司机把他从边境送到利雅得的哈立德国王国际机场。总共下来，车费约3000美元。

During a phone interview as the car sped across the Saudi desert, Dr. Miller said that his anxiety spiked each time the vehicle passed through routine checkpoints. His overwhelming emotions were “desperation and fear and anxiety to just flee and get out.”

在汽车穿越沙特沙漠时，接受电话采访的米勒医生说，每当车辆通过例行检查站，他的焦虑都会骤然上升。他当时排山倒海的情绪就是：“绝望、恐惧和焦虑，只想赶紧逃离这里。”

When he arrived at the airport in Riyadh on Thursday evening, the terminal was eerily quiet, with most of the departures — to places like Abu Dhabi, Delhi, Hong Kong and Colombo, Sri Lanka — canceled. Sitting in an empty airline lounge, he nervously awaited his 3:40 a.m. flight to Addis Ababa.

周四晚上，当他抵达利雅得机场时，航站楼内异常冷清，大多数前往阿布扎比、德里、香港和斯里兰卡科伦坡等地的航班都被取消了。坐在空荡荡的航空公司贵宾休息室里，他紧张地等待着凌晨3点40分飞往亚的斯亚贝巴的航班。

That flight, operated by Ethiopian Airlines, was packed. He barely slept a wink.

这趟由埃塞俄比亚航空运营的航班座无虚席。他几乎一夜未合眼。

Ethiopia had not been on Dr. Miller’s travel wish list before this trip.

在这次旅行之前，埃塞俄比亚从未出现在米勒医生的旅行愿望清单上。

But he had 15 hours to fill in Addis Ababa after his flight landed at 6:40 a.m. on Friday, and he didn’t feel like spending them at the airport. Though he was running on empty, he seized the chance to visit the National Museum of Ethiopia, home to the skeleton of Lucy, a 3.2-million-year-old hominin that was discovered in the country in 1974. As a self-described die-hard disciple of Charles Darwin, Dr. Miller joked by text message that there was no way he’d miss the chance to see “my one true love.”

不过，他的航班在周五早上6点40分抵达亚的斯亚贝巴后，他还有15个小时需要打发，他并不想一直留在机场里。尽管已经筋疲力尽，他还是抓住机会参观了埃塞俄比亚国家博物馆。那里收藏着露西的骨骼——这是一具1974年在埃塞俄比亚发现、距今320万年的古人类化石。作为一个自称达尔文铁杆信徒的人，米勒医生在短信中开玩笑说，他绝不会错过见到“我唯一真正挚爱”的机会。

He also sought out a strong cup of coffee, a beverage Ethiopia is famous for.

他还去找了一杯浓咖啡，这是埃塞俄比亚闻名于世的特产。

He arrived back at the airport about three hours ahead of his 10:40 p.m. departure, but it still turned out to be a close call. To keep him from missing his flight, airport employees whisked him to the front of the security line. His passport was checked five times.

他在晚上10点40分航班起飞前三个小时回到机场，但时间仍然十分紧张。为了避免误机，机场工作人员把他直接带到安检队伍最前面。他的护照被检查了五次。

He still had many grueling miles to go. His Chicago-bound Ethiopian Airways flight made a refueling stop in Rome six and a half hours later, but passengers did not disembark. Then, with its tanks filled, it took off for Chicago, where it landed shortly before 8 a.m. on Saturday, about a full week after his first flight made its midair U-turn.

他前面还有漫长而煎熬的路程。他乘坐的这架飞往芝加哥的埃塞俄比亚航空航班在六半小时后经停罗马加油，但乘客并未下机。随后，加满油的飞机起飞前往芝加哥，于周六早上快8点时降落，此时距离他第一趟航班在空中掉头已过去差不多整整一周。

At O’Hare International Airport, he faced a potential gantlet passing through U.S. customs and immigration, which has been affected by the ongoing shutdown in Department of Homeland Security funding. Even without Global Entry, an expedited entry program the government suspended because of the shutdown, the line moved at a steady clip. Dr. Miller collected his checked bag and waited three hours for his next departure, a United Airlines flight to New Orleans.

在芝加哥奥黑尔国际机场，他不得不面对美国海关和移民局的关卡考验。由于国土安全部资金持续中断，这一流程也受到影响。即使没有使用全球快速通关计划——这个原本可以快速通关的项目因为政府停摆而暂停——队伍仍以稳速向前移动。米勒医生取回托运行李，然后又等待了三个小时，搭乘下一趟飞往新奥尔良的美联航航班。

Despite being in the homestretch, he almost didn’t take off. Backing out from the gate at O’Hare, the plane struck a baggage cart. But the flight was still able to depart, and it landed in New Orleans a little after 2 p.m. on Saturday. It had been more than 60 hours since he fled Qatar, and in all, Dr. Miller estimated, the journey home cost almost $10,000.

尽管已接近旅程的尾声，他差点还是没能起飞。在奥黑尔机场退出登机口时，飞机撞上了一辆行李车。但航班仍得以起飞，并于周六下午两点多降落在新奥尔良。自他逃离卡塔尔以来，已经过去了60多个小时，米勒医生估计，这趟回家之旅总共花费了近1万美元。

About an hour later, he stepped into his house in the Marigny and cracked open a beer. That night, he slept 16 uninterrupted hours. The State Department finally called him back that evening, but he was fast asleep in his own bed. The call went to voice mail.

大约一个小时后，他回到了位于新奥尔良马里尼的家中，打开了一瓶啤酒。那天晚上，他一口气睡了16个小时。国务院终于在那天晚上给他回了电话，但他在自己床上睡得正香。电话转到了语音信箱。

The spike in oil prices precipitated by the American and Israeli attack on Iran is rippling throughout global economies. On Monday, the price of oil rose to nearly $120 a barrel, before settling back down to around $90 after President Trump suggested the war could be over soon. Oil was about $70 a barrel before the conflict began on Feb. 28. Jet fuel rose more than 58 percent as of March 6 compared to the week before, according to the International Air Transport Association.

美以袭击伊朗引发的油价飙升正在全球经济中传导蔓延。周一，油价一度逼近每桶120美元，随后在特朗普总统表示战争可能很快结束后回落至90美元左右。2月28日冲突爆发前，油价约为每桶70美元。国际航空运输协会数据显示，截至3月6日，航空燃油价格较前一周上涨超过58%。

Market volatility only adds to the confusion around flight prices. But the last time oil rose more than 40 percent — in 2022, on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — airfares jumped 28 percent.

市场波动只会让机票价格更加混乱。而上一次油价涨幅超40%是在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，当时机票价格随之大涨28%。

So far, no American carrier has announced price hikes. But they are beginning to trickle in elsewhere: Air New Zealand and SAS, for instance, are among the international airlines that have recently announced fare increases tied to the rising price of jet fuel.

到目前为止，美国尚无航空公司宣布涨价，但其他地区已开始陆续提价：例如，新西兰航空和北欧航空等国际航司近期已宣布因航空燃油价格上涨上调票价。

For airlines today, the cost of flying has sharply increased, but will they pass those costs on to consumers and, if so, how? We asked experts to weigh in on the potential effects travelers may feel.

如今，对航空公司而言，飞行成本已大幅上升，但它们会将这些成本转嫁给乘客吗？如果会，又会以何种方式？我们请教了专家，分析旅客可能感受到的潜在影响。

How will higher oil prices affect the cost of a ticket?

油价上涨将如何影响机票价格？

Fuel is the second-largest expense, after labor, for an airline. In the United States, most carriers stopped the practice of hedging against oil spikes long ago, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations.

燃油是航空公司仅次于人力成本的第二大支出。在美国，多数航司早已停止对油价上涨进行对冲操作，这使其更容易受到市场波动影响。

Asked last week at an academic event about rising airfares linked to surging oil prices, United Airlines’ chief executive, Scott Kirby, said the effect of higher fuel costs on airfares would “probably start quick.” (Asked for comment, a representative for United said it had “nothing additional to add.”)

上周在一场学术活动中，美联航首席执行官斯科特·柯比被问及与油价飙升相关的机票涨价问题时表示，燃油成本上涨对机票价格的影响“可能很快就会开始显现”。（美联航发言人在被要求置评时表示“没有更多补充”。）

“The second he said it, that gave airlines permission to increase fares,” said Henry H. Harteveldt, the president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.

“他这话一出口，就等于给所有航空公司开了涨价的绿灯，”旧金山旅行研究咨询公司大气研究集团总裁亨利·哈特维尔特说。

But how — and how much — costs may rise is unclear. Mr. Harteveldt noted that airlines have many ways to recoup ballooning fuel expenses beyond a blanket increase, including charging more for tickets in business and first class, where the pinch may sting less; raising fees for ancillary services like checking bags or assigning seats; eliminating or reducing the number of seats sold for the lowest fares on certain routes; consolidating departures; or increasing fuel surcharges on international flights.

但成本会以何种方式上涨、上涨多少，目前仍不明确。哈特维尔特指出，除全面涨价外，航空公司还有多种方式弥补不断攀升的燃油成本，包括提高价格敏感度较低的商务舱、头等舱票价；提高托运行李、选座等附加服务费用；取消或减少部分航线的最低价座位；合并航班；提高国际航班燃油附加费。

“All of these are ways airlines can push travelers into paying more for flights,” he said.

“所有这些方式都可以让旅客为航班支付更多费用，”他说。

Are all airlines affected equally?

所有航空公司受到的影响都一样吗？

Wherever they fly, low-cost carriers are more likely to suffer compared with competitors.

无论航线如何，低成本航空公司受到的冲击都将大于竞争对手。

“Budget airlines such as Spirit and Frontier are in the toughest position,” said Julian Kheel, the founder and chief executive of Points Path, a service that compares cash airfares to paying with points. “Carriers with premium cabins have the option to shift some fuel costs onto business and first-class travelers, who are relatively insensitive to price increases. But low-cost carriers don’t have that cushion, which means their passengers will bear the full brunt.”

“精神航空、边疆航空这类廉航处境最为艰难，”旅行积分比价服务Points Path创始人兼首席执行官朱利安·基尔表示。“设有高端舱位的航司可以将部分燃油成本转嫁给商务舱和头等舱旅客，这类乘客对涨价相对不敏感。但廉航没有这种缓冲，意味着乘客将承担全部冲击。”

But that doesn’t mean major global carriers won’t have to adjust prices. The efficiency of planes, often related to their age or engineering, and the distance they fly help determine how much fuel an airline consumes.

但这并不意味着大型国际航司无需调整价格。飞机的燃油效率（通常与机龄和设计相关）以及飞行距离都会决定航空公司的燃油消耗量。

“In addition to rising jet fuel prices, the war is creating a double hit for airlines, as many international flights now also have to detour around closed airspace, which means burning even more fuel,” said Mr. Kheel.

“除了航空燃油价格上涨，战争还给航空公司带来双重打击——许多国际航班现在必须绕开关闭的空域，这意味着消耗更多燃油，”基尔说。

The disruptions, restrictions and closures in Gulf cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha — critical aviation hubs for global traffic — are likely to affect pricing as well as routing. To avoid transiting through that region, international fliers are increasingly turning to Europe, which may tighten availability there and push prices higher.

迪拜、阿布扎比、多哈等海湾城市关键航空枢纽的混乱、管制与关闭也可能影响票价与航线。为避免过境该地区，国际航班正日益转向欧洲，这可能导致欧洲航线座位紧张、价格上涨。

How long will the situation last?

这种情况会持续多久？

No one knows how long the war will last, but historically, airfares have mirrored surges in the price of oil.

没人知道战争会持续多久，但从历史来看，机票价格会紧跟油价波动。

“If you look at prices in past oil crises in 2022 and 2008, you see spikes in flight prices,” said Scott Keyes, the founder of Going.com, a service devoted to finding cheap airfares.

“回顾2022年和2008年石油危机期间的价格，就能发现机票价格都出现了飙升，”廉价机票平台Going.com创始人斯科特·凯斯说。

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed up oil prices for much of the year, when the average U.S. annual inflation rate was 8 percent. In that case, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production, which helped bring prices down, said Mr. Harteveldt.

2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高了全年大部分时间的油价，当年美国平均通胀率达8%。哈特维尔特表示，当时石油输出国组织增加了产量，帮助压低了价格。

“We don’t know the end game with this war,” he said.

“我们不知道当前这场战争最终会走向何方，”他说。

Postwar recovery may add to the costs.

战后恢复也可能增加成本。

“The biggest factor impacting airfares is how long this all lasts,” said Mr. Keyes, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet from the Persian Gulf, which handles an estimated 20 percent of global oil supply. “The longer the shutdown, the longer it takes to get going.”

“影响机票价格的最大因素是这一切会持续多久，”凯斯说，并提到承担全球约20%石油供应的波斯湾出口通道霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。“封锁时间越长，恢复正常就越慢。”

Should I buy an airline ticket now?

我应该现在就买机票吗？

Consumers may have to hedge their bets on upcoming summer travel. The best way to do that is to ensure you are booking a penalty-free flight that will offer a flight credit or refund if you cancel. That way, in the best-case scenario, if the airfare falls, you can cancel and use the credit to rebook at a lower airfare.

消费者可能需要为即将到来的夏季旅行做好风险对冲。最佳方式是预订可免退改手续费的机票——若取消可获得机票代金券或退款。这样一来，在最佳情况下，如果后续票价下跌，你可以取消订单，用代金券重新预订更低价格的航班。

Most legacy carriers, but not their low-cost peers, still offer tickets that, if changed, give you a credit to use on a future flight, usually within a year. This does not apply to most basic economy fares, so book carefully.

大多数传统航空公司（但不包括廉航）仍提供改签后可获未来一年内有效代金券的机票。此政策不适用于大多数基础经济舱票价，因此预订时需留意。

“If you’re concerned about the price dropping later, you’re not out of luck,” said Mr. Keyes. “All things considered, I would be booking sooner rather than later but also checking the price after booking to see if it drops.”

“如果你担心之后价格下跌，也并非毫无办法，”凯斯说。“综合考虑，我建议尽早预订，但预订后也要关注价格是否下跌。”

In his 35 years, Balendra Shah has been a rapper, a mayor, an engineer and an unswerving fan of rectangular sunglasses. He is now on the brink of becoming Nepal’s youngest-ever prime minister after his party scored a landslide victory in elections last week.

现年35岁的巴伦德拉·沙阿是一名说唱歌手、市长、工程师，还是矩形墨镜的忠实拥趸。在上周的选举中，他领导的政党取得了压倒性胜利，使他即将成为尼泊尔历史上最年轻的总理。

The vote was the first since a Gen Z-led uprising last year overthrew a government that many Nepalis viewed as corrupt and out of touch. The Rastriya Swatantra Party, a young political force that positioned itself as the inheritor of the Gen Z revolution, received the largest mandate in Nepal’s modern electoral history, winning a significant majority of 275 parliamentary seats, according to official results released on Tuesday. Mr. Shah, a millennial with an often aggressive and aggrieved style on social media, is its pick to lead Nepal.

去年，一场由“Z世代”领导的起义推翻了被视为腐败且脱离群众的旧政府，本次投票正是该事件后的首次大选。周二公布的官方结果显示，以这场革命的继承者自居的政治新兴力量——国家自由党获得了尼泊尔现代选举史上最广泛的授权，赢得了议会275个席位中的绝对多数。该党推举的领导人沙阿是一名千禧一代，他在社交媒体上以激进且充满“愤青”色彩的风格著称。

Why did people vote for him?

为什么选民会投给他？

Technically, Nepal’s electorate picked the R.S.P. But many Nepalis did not cast their ballots last Thursday for a party; they voted for Balen, as Mr. Shah is popularly known.

理论上尼泊尔选民选择的是国家自由党。但上周四，许多选民投票并非为了政党，而是为了“巴伦”(Balen)——这是民众对沙阿的亲昵称呼。

“People are saying, ‘Balen is a savior for Nepal,’” said Sanjeev Humagain, a political scientist at Nepal Open University. “They’re saying, in a populist way, that he’s a god.”

尼泊尔公开大学的政治学者桑吉夫·胡马盖表示：“人们在说‘巴伦是尼泊尔的救世主’。从民粹主义的角度来看，他们几乎把他神化了。”

上周选举日，选民们在加德满都的巴桑塔布尔杜巴广场排队。

A socially conscious rapper, Mr. Shah has prided himself in not being bound to Nepal’s political establishment. Four years ago, he successfully ran as an independent for mayor of Kathmandu, the nation’s capital. He cultivated an image of a politician who got things done — tackling waste management, improving education and delivering health care — precisely because he wasn’t beholden to the ossified hierarchy of party politics.

作为一名具有社会意识的说唱歌手，沙阿一直以不依附于尼泊尔政治权贵而自豪。四年前，他以独立候选人身份成功当选首都加德满都的市长。他塑造了一个“实干派”政治家的形象：治理垃圾问题、改善教育、提供医疗服务——而这一切之所以能实现，恰恰是因为他不受制于僵化的政党等级制度。

As mayor, Mr. Shah lent early support to the Gen Z protesters, who had gathered peacefully in Kathmandu in September to condemn corruption and nepotism, as well as a sweeping social media ban. The protests quickly descended into violence when security forces killed unarmed young people. Mr. Shah branded K.P. Sharma Oli, who was prime minister during the fatal crackdown, a “terrorist.” Mr. Oli soon resigned, and the government collapsed.

担任市长期间，沙阿早期曾支持“Z世代”抗议者。去年9月，年轻人们在加德满都和平集会，谴责腐败、裙带关系以及政府对社交媒体的全面封杀。随后，安全部队杀害手无寸铁的青年的行为，令抗议迅速演变为暴力冲突。沙阿公开称时任总理奥利为“恐怖分子”。不久后，奥利辞职，政府垮台。

After the elections were called, Mr. Shah chose to fight for the seat in Parliament that Mr. Oli, four decades his senior, had long held. He won with more than three-and-a-half times the number of votes.

宣布大选后，沙阿选择挑战奥利长期把持的议会席位。尽管奥利比他年长40岁，沙阿最终仍以超过对方3.5倍的票数胜出。

What is Balen’s vibe?

“巴伦”的风格是什么样的？

Punchy and volatile. But also a bit mysterious. He hides his expression behind his signature rectangular sunglasses, which he insists on wearing indoors.

犀利、多变，且带着一丝神秘。他总是躲在标志性的矩形墨镜后面，甚至在室内也坚持佩戴。

Mr. Shah rarely gives news conferences or media interviews. Instead, he communicates through social media, where his reach is unmatched by other Nepali celebrities; he has 3.7 million followers on Facebook, in a nation of 30 million people.

沙阿很少举行新闻发布会或接受媒体采访。相反，他通过社交媒体发声，其影响力令尼泊尔其他名人望尘莫及：在这个拥有3000万人口的国家，他的Facebook粉丝数高达370万。

He has railed against the three big nations — the United States, China and India — and the three big Nepali political parties that for years had a stranglehold on the country’s politics. And, before he joined it in January, he also venomously criticized the R.S.P.

他曾炮轰中美印三大国，也抨击过多年来把持国家政治的三大尼泊尔政党。甚至在今年1月加入国家自由党之前，他对如今所属的政党也进行过尖刻的批评。

“All politicians, new and old, are thieves,” he wrote on social media.

他曾在社交媒体上写道：“所有的政治家，无论新旧，全是小偷。”

国家自由党获得了尼泊尔现代选举史上最广泛的民意授权。

Mr. Shah has expressed admiration for the managerial acumen of dictators like Hitler and ranted on social media about perceived slights — a hair trigger reflex that may not work when he assumes leadership of Nepal.

沙阿曾表达过对希特勒等独裁者管理手腕的钦佩，并常在社交媒体上针对他认为的“冒犯”进行还击。这种“一点就着”的反应，在他接掌国家领导权后可能并不适用。

What is his music like?

他的音乐作品如何？

A poet who learned to style his verse to a beat, Mr. Shah is a troubadour of the streets. Although he grew up comfortably as the son of a traditional medicine doctor, he wrote lyrics that championed the underdog and decried the powerful, in the mold of his inspirations, Tupac Shakur and 50 Cent.

作为一位擅长将诗句融入节奏的诗人，沙阿是街头的吟唱者。尽管出身于传统医生家庭，成长环境优渥，但他创作的歌词多为弱势群体发声，谴责权贵。他的灵感源自2Pac和50 Cent等偶像。

In a country dominated by the Himalayas, Mr. Shah is on track to be the first prime minister of Nepal considered a son of Madhesh, the lowland province bordering India. People from the southern plains, who make up more than half the nation’s population, have long felt like second-class citizens.

在这个以喜马拉雅山区为主的国家，沙阿有望成为首位被视为“马德西之子”的总理。马德西是接壤印度的平原省份，那里的人口占全国一半以上，却长期感觉自己像二等公民。

One of Mr. Shah’s songs, released this year, expresses his sympathies to Nepalis, many of them from the lowlands, who by the millions work overseas because of official corruption that stymies their job opportunities at home.

沙阿今年发布的一首歌表达了对低地同胞的同情。由于官方腐败阻碍了国内就业，数百万尼泊尔人不得不远赴海外务工。

“Money seems to grow on trees for those who sell their integrity, those who step on others, those who are selfish, those who write lies, those who oppress,” the song goes.

歌词写道：“对那些出卖廉耻的人，踩着他人上位的人，自私的人，编造谎言的人，压迫他人的人，钱似乎长在树上。”

What kind of leader will he be?

他会成为什么样的领导人？

As mayor of Kathmandu, Mr. Shah often acted first and figured out the procedural niceties later. He tried to bulldoze a squatter settlement that he found unbecoming. To make a point about slow road construction, he ordered a dump truck to deposit trash in front of the Department of Roads.

在担任加德满都市长期间，沙阿经常“先斩后奏”。他曾试图强拆他认为影响市容的贫民窟；为了抗议道路建设进度缓慢，他曾命令翻斗车直接将垃圾倾倒在道路局门前。

2022年，时任加德满都市长沙阿视察首都的一处下水道施工现场。

Mr. Shah reserved power for a small coterie of aides who dedicated themselves to ripping up red tape while icing out other bureaucrats.

沙阿习惯将权力保留在由一小撮亲信组成的圈子里，他们致力于打破繁琐的行政程序，同时也将其他官僚排挤在外。

As leader of Nepal, Mr. Shah will have to be more flexible. Although his party has a large majority in the lower house, it doesn’t have a single seat in the upper house, making passing major legislation tough.

作为尼泊尔的领导人，沙阿必须变得更加灵活。尽管他的政党在众议院拥有多数席位，但在参议院却未获一席，这将使重大立法的通过变得困难重重。

“We have a lot of problems in Nepal,” said Mr. Humagain, the political scientist. “One man, even Balen, is going to have learn a lot about compromise, communication and teamwork.”

政治学者胡马盖指出：“尼泊尔面临许多问题。即便是一个像巴伦这样的人，也必须在妥协、沟通与团队协作方面多学习。”

Since the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has given conflicting indications on how long it will continue.

自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，特朗普总统对于战事将持续多长时间给出了相互矛盾的说法。

After he said near the outset of the war that it could last “four to five weeks,” the president and members of his administration have issued shifting statements on the timeline and the goals for the war.

他在战争初期曾表示，战事可能持续“四到五周”。但此后，总统及其政府成员不断就战争时间表和目标发表前后不一的说法。

They have at times suggested that the United States was striving to topple Iran’s government and achieve an “unconditional surrender” and will continue an assault as long as it takes. At others, Mr. Trump and his officials have delivered the message that the war had already succeeded in its objective of decimating Iran’s military.

他们时而暗示美国的目标是力求推翻伊朗政府，实现“无条件投降”，并且必要的话会一直打下去；时而特朗普及其官员又表示，战争已达成摧毁伊朗军力的目标。

That has left wide-open the possibilities for how the conflict with Iran could wind down and how long it will take, even as some in his administration try to assure the public that the United States will not be drawn into another long war in the Middle East.

这使得伊朗冲突将如何收场、需要多长时间结束都充满不确定性，即便特朗普政府内部的一些人试图向公众保证，美国不会再次卷入一场中东长期战争。

Here’s a look at officials’ often contradictory statements since the war began.

以下是自战争爆发以来，官员们往往相互矛盾的表态。

March 1

3月1日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘We intended four to five weeks.’

“我们打算持续四到五周。”

In an interview with The New York Times the day after the initial strikes on Iran, Mr. Trump already had contradictory visions of how the war would pan out.

在对伊朗发动初步打击的次日接受本报采访时，特朗普对这场战争将如何发展已经表现出了相互矛盾的看法。

He said that the United States and Israel intended to continue the assault for about a month, and predicted that it “won’t be difficult.” But he did not seem to have decided on what changes among Iran’s government he would consider a victory.

他说，美国和以色列打算将攻击持续大约一个月时间，并预测这“不会很难”。但对于伊朗政府需要发生哪些变化才算胜利，他似乎还没有明确的想法。

March 2

3月2日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯

‘This is not Iraq. This is not endless.’


“这不是伊拉克。这不会没完没了。”

During a news conference at the Pentagon last week with Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mr. Hegseth suggested the campaign was being kept to a smaller scope compared with the “nation-building quagmire” of past American interventions in the Middle East.

上周，在五角大楼与参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军举行的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯表示，这次行动被控制在较小规模，与以往美国在中东干预行动中的那种“国家建设泥潭”不同。

He suggested this campaign could take anywhere from two to eight weeks, not settling on a number.

他暗示，这场军事行动可能持续两到八周，但没有给出一个确定的时间。

March 2

3月2日


Gen. Dan Caine

丹·凯恩将军

‘This is not a single overnight operation.’

“这不是一夜之间就能完成的行动。”

At the same news conference, General Caine dismissed any suggestion that the U.S. campaign in Iran might mirror the one in Venezuela earlier this year and said that the Pentagon’s military objectives would “take some time to achieve.”

在同一场新闻发布会上，凯恩将军驳回了外界关于美国在伊朗的军事行动可能会像今年早些时候在委内瑞拉的行动那样迅速结束的说法，并表示五角大楼的军事目标“需要一些时间才能实现”。

He added, “We expect to take additional losses.”

他还补充说：“我们预计将承受更多损失。”

March 2

3月2日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘Whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes.’

“不管需要多长时间，不管付出什么代价，都可以。”

As his defense secretary assured the United States would not be dragged into a long conflict, Mr. Trump said the United States was “substantially ahead of our time projections,” which had put the campaign at four to five weeks.

就在他的国防部长向美国保证不会卷入长期冲突的同时，特朗普表示，美国目前“远远领先于原先的时间预期”，而此前的预期是将战事控制在四到五周。

But he added that the United States had the capability “to go far longer than that.”

不过他又补充说，美国也有能力“把行动持续得比这更久”。

March 6

3月6日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’

“与伊朗不会有任何交易，除了无条件投降”

Six days into the bombing campaign, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to demand that Iran capitulate and said that the United States and its allies would “work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

轰炸行动进行到第六天，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖，要求伊朗投降，并称美国及其盟友将“不懈努力，把伊朗从毁灭的边缘救回来，使其经济比以前更大、更好、更强”。

That appeared to shift the timeline further, into both regime change and rebuilding Iran, even as its current leaders have expressed defiance and expanded the battlefield by striking American bases across the Middle East.

这似乎进一步拉长了时间线，将目标扩展至政权更迭和重建伊朗，尽管伊朗现任领导人表现出强硬态度，并通过袭击美国在中东各地的基地来扩大战场。

March 6

3月6日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘The achievable objectives of Operation Epic Fury we expect to last about four to six weeks.’

“我们预计‘史诗愤怒行动’可实现的目标大约需要四到六周。”

Later that day, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was asked what the president would consider a surrender.

当天晚些时候，白宫新闻秘书莱维特女士被问及在总统看来，怎样才算投降。

She declined to give a timeline beyond the plan she said the president had laid out. But she seemed to soften his demand for a surrender, saying it would “essentially” occur when Mr. Trump concluded his war objectives had been met.

她没有给出比总统此前所提出计划更具体的时间表。但她似乎在一定程度上缓和了总统对投降的要求，表示所谓的投降“基本上”就是当特朗普认定他的战争目标已经实现的时候。

March 7

3月7日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘This is a short excursion.’

“这只是一次短暂的行动。”

After attending the dignified transfer of six American service members who were killed when Iran struck a command center in Kuwait, Mr. Trump suggested to reporters that the United States was achieving its military objectives.

在出席为六名阵亡美军士兵举行的庄严的灵柩回国迎接仪式后——他们是在伊朗袭击科威特一处指挥中心时丧生的——特朗普向记者表示，美国正在达成军事目标。

“We’re winning the war by a lot,” he said. “We decimated their whole evil empire.”

“我们正以巨大优势赢得这场战争，”他说。“我们摧毁了他们整个邪恶帝国。”

Asked if he was worried about high gas prices, which have risen nearly 17 percent since the war began, he said he was not and that the campaign would be “short.”

当被问及是否担心油价上涨时——自战争开始以来油价已上涨近17%——他说并不担心，并表示这场行动将是“短暂的”。

March 9

3月9日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘The war is very complete, pretty much.’

“这场战争基本上已经结束，差不多了。”

U.S. markets rebounded at the start of this week after Mr. Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule.”

美国市场本周一开始反弹，此前特朗普告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道，战争“基本上已经结束，差不多了”，并且“大大快于计划”。

But after markets closed, in remarks to Republican lawmakers gathered for a retreat in Florida and in a news conference afterward, he left open the possibility of more comprehensive aims, even as he said the war would end “soon, very soon.”

但在股市收盘后，他在佛罗里达州向参加一个闭门会议的共和党议员发表讲话，并在随后举行的新闻发布会上表示，这场战争的目标不排除扩大的可能，尽管他同时称战争将“很快、非常快”结束。

“We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all,” he said.

“我们比以往任何时候都更坚定地向前迈进，争取取得最终胜利，彻底结束这一长期存在的威胁，”他说。

March 10

3月10日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯


‘It’s not for me to posit whether it’s the beginning, the middle or the end.’

“这是不是开始、中段还是结束，并不是由我来下结论的。”

At a news conference on Tuesday with General Caine, Mr. Hegseth joined others in the administration in asserting that Mr. Trump alone was in charge of the timeline.

在周二与凯恩将军共同举行的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯与政府其他人一样，坚称战争时间表完全由特朗普总统决定。

“He gets to control the throttle,” Mr. Hegseth said, though he added, “I want the American people to understand is this is not endless. It’s not protracted.”

“他掌握着油门，”赫格塞斯说，不过他又补充道，“我希望美国人民明白，这不是一场无休止的战争。这不会是一场持久战。”

March 10

3月10日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘President Trump will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender.’

“特朗普总统将决定伊朗何时达到无条件投降的状态。”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, the press secretary again appeared to qualify Mr. Trump’s demand of “unconditional surrender.”

周二对记者发表讲话时，这位白宫新闻秘书似乎再次对特朗普的“无条件投降”要求进行了限定。

“When President Trump says that Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender, he’s not claiming the Iranian regime is going to come out and say that themselves,” Ms. Leavitt said. She added that Mr. Trump would decide when Iran no longer posed “a credible and direct threat.”

“当特朗普总统表示伊朗已达到无条件投降的状态时，他并不是说伊朗政权会自己走出来宣布投降，”莱维特女士说。她还表示，将由特朗普来决定伊朗何时不再构成“可信且直接的威胁”。

In the first two months of the year, before the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East paralyzed energy supply lines, China ramped up its oil purchases as part of a continued strategy to shield the country from rising geopolitical tensions.

今年前两个月，在中东冲突爆发导致能源供应线瘫痪之前，作为应对地缘政治紧张局势的持续战略，中国已加大石油采购力度。

The world’s largest buyer of oil, China imported 15.8 percent more oil in January and February over the same period last year, according to customs data released by China on Tuesday.

中国官方周二公布的海关数据显示，作为全球最大石油买家，中国今年1至2月的石油进口量较去年同期增长15.8%。

Beijing has been building up its strategic stockpile over the past year, even as domestic oil consumption has continued to fall. All that oil is now expected to come in handy.

过去一年，尽管国内石油消费量持续下降，中国仍在不断扩充战略石油储备。如今，这些储备预计将派上用场。

“Oil stockpiling has been taking place for a while now, and Chinese regulators were already preparing for geopolitical tensions to arise from the Trump administration,” said Cosimo Ries, an energy analyst at Trivium China, a consulting firm. “It was a strategic step which, in hindsight, was pretty wise.”

“石油储备工作已经进行了一段时间，中国监管部门此前就在为特朗普政府可能引发的地缘政治紧张做准备，”咨询机构Trivium China的能源分析师科西莫·里斯表示。“事后看来，这是相当明智的战略举措。”

President Trump has launched attacks on two of China’s cheapest sources of oil, Venezuela and Iran. Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, was ousted and brought to the United States, where he is in a federal prison in New York awaiting trial. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on Feb. 28 during U.S. and Israeli military strikes.

特朗普政府已对中国的两大廉价石油来源委内瑞拉和伊朗发起打击。委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被推翻并押往美国，目前关押在纽约联邦监狱等候审判。伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊则在2月28日的美以军事打击中身亡。

The leadership changes in both countries have thrown into question the lucrative deals that China had secured with the two countries to buy oil sanctioned by the United States. Mr. Trump has said that the United States will take over Venezuela’s oil industry. In Iran, the source of 13 percent of China’s oil imports, the Trump administration’s plans are not yet clear.

两国的政权更迭使中国此前与两国达成的购买受美国制裁石油的大笔协议蒙上阴影。特朗普曾表示，美国将接管委内瑞拉石油工业。而伊朗占中国石油进口量的13%，特朗普政府针对伊朗的具体计划尚不明确。

Experts said they expected China to continue building up its energy security now, as the war in Iran disrupts traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. China imports around half of its seaborne crude oil from the Middle East.

专家表示，随着伊朗战争扰乱霍尔木兹海峡航运——这条狭窄水道承载着全球五分之一的石油供应，预计中国将进一步加强能源安全保障。中国约一半的海运原油进口来自中东。

Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday that “China will take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.”

中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周二表示：“中国将采取必要措施，保障自身能源安全。”

Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, a market research firm, said the government’s priority is to ensure stable fuel supplies and it may take steps, such as “instructing refiners to halt fuel exports and potentially lending or releasing crude reserves to refiners.”

市场研究公司Kpler的高级原油分析师徐沐雨（音）称，中国政府当前的优先事项是确保燃油供应稳定，并可能采取相关措施，例如“要求炼油企业暂停燃油出口，或向炼油企业投放、出借原油储备”。

China has been buying more oil over the past year for its strategic stockpile, which stands at roughly 1.2 billion barrels, or about 115 days of its seaborne crude imports, according to Ms. Xu.

徐沐雨表示，过去一年中国持续增加石油进口以充实战略储备，目前规模约为12亿桶，相当于约115天的海运原油进口量。

Much of this has been strategic. China significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil this year as India pulled back its own buying amid negotiations with the United States on a trade deal that stipulated it replace its Russian supply.

此举很大程度上出于战略考量。今年印度在与美国谈判贸易协议期间缩减了俄罗斯石油采购，该协议要求印度替换俄罗斯石油供应，中国则大幅增加了对俄罗斯石油的购买。

The surge in oil imports helped to spur China’s robust trade growth in the first two months of the year. Imports surged nearly 20 percent in January and February, a sharp increase after imports remained mostly flat in 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese exports continued to grow rapidly, rising 22 percent in the two-month period and building on last year’s record outpouring of Chinese-made goods abroad.

石油进口激增推动了中国今年前两个月的贸易强劲增长。1月至2月，中国进口额飙升近20%，较2025年基本持平的进口态势呈现显著增长。与此同时，中国出口延续高速增长，两个月内增长22%，延续了去年创纪录的商品出口势头。

From the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to the war in the Middle East, 2026 has served as a powerful reminder of oil’s enduring influence in geopolitics and the global economy.

从抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗到中东战火爆发，2026年有力地提醒世人：石油在地缘政治与全球经济中拥有持久的影响力。

Oil has been both a prize, as in Venezuela, and a potent tool of political coercion, as seen in the U.S. blockade that is starving Cuba of energy. And now, after oil breached $100 a barrel for the first time in almost four years, the economic risks of going even a short time without full access to energy from the Persian Gulf are becoming clearer by the day.

在委内瑞拉，石油是一种战利品，在美国封锁古巴、使其陷入能源短缺的情况下，石油又是一种强力政治胁迫工具。如今，在油价近四年来首次突破每桶100美元之后，哪怕只是短期内无法全面获得波斯湾能源的经济风险也正日益凸显。

With oil front and center, it feels almost like revisiting an earlier time, before countries began embracing renewable energy and before the United States became the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas.

石油重回舞台中心，这让人仿佛回到过去的年代——那时各国尚未全面接受可再生能源，美国也未成为全球最大石油和天然气生产国。

There is little sign that the war with Iran will cause the kind of economic pain experienced about a half-century ago, when oil met almost half of the world’s energy needs and an embargo by members of an oil cartel caused prices to quadruple in a matter of months. That tipped the U.S. economy into a period of high inflation and stagnant economic growth. But it is clear that going without as much oil and natural gas as the world is used to, even briefly, will strain economies around the world.

目前几乎没有迹象表明，对伊朗的战争会造成大约半个世纪前那样的经济阵痛。当时石油满足全球近半能源需求，石油输出国组织成员实施禁运，油价在数月内涨幅达四倍，将美国经济拖入高通胀与经济增长停滞的困境。但显而易见的是：即便只是短暂失去全球惯常的油气供应，也会给全球经济带来压力。

“The old game is back more than people thought it would ever be,” said Elliott Abrams, who served as a special representative for Iran and Venezuela during the first Trump administration.

“旧的游戏卷土重来，程度远超人们预期，”特朗普第一任期内负责伊朗与委内瑞拉事务的特别代表埃利奥特·艾布拉姆斯表示。

The world remains dependent on reliable oil and gas supplies, even though two-thirds of global spending in the energy sector now go to cleaner alternatives such as solar power that are growing much more quickly.

尽管如今全球能源领域三分之二的支出投向太阳能等增长更快的清洁能源，世界依然依赖可靠的油气供应。

While oil now meets a smaller share of global energy needs than it used to — less than 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency — the world uses almost twice as much of the fuel as it did in the early 1970s. And natural gas, used to heat homes and generate electricity, underpins much more of the economy than it used to.

尽管石油在全球能源需求中的占比已低于往昔——国际能源署数据显示，这一数字已不足30%，但全球石油消耗量几乎是20世纪70年代初的两倍。而用于家庭供暖和发电的天然气对经济的支撑作用也比过去大得多。

“The post-oil world remains far in the future,” said David Sandalow, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who served in the Clinton and Obama administrations. “We’re in the early to middle stages of an energy transition, but energy transitions take time.”

“后石油时代仍遥遥无期，”曾在克林顿和奥巴马政府任职、现哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心研究员戴维·桑德罗表示。“我们正处于能源转型的初期至中期，而能源转型需要时间。”

Of course, disruptions like the war in Iran may accelerate the move to alternative sources of energy, particularly in places that lack easy access to fossil fuels, while pushing countries to use energy more efficiently. U.S. fuel-economy standards are an enduring legacy of the 1973 oil embargo, for example.

当然，伊朗战争这类供应中断可能会加速能源转型，尤其是在化石燃料获取不便的地区，同时推动各国提高能源使用效率。例如，美国的燃油经济性标准就是1973年石油禁运留下的长久遗产。

The widening conflict in the Middle East, which began with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, has all but blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that serves as the gateway to market for one-fifth of the world’s oil and substantial amounts of natural gas. Several refineries in the region have shut down or cut processing, some after sustaining damage, according to Kpler, a research firm. That means they are turning less oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

2月28日美以袭击伊朗引发的中东冲突扩大，几乎封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。这条狭窄水道承载着全球五分之一的石油和大量天然气的外销通道。研究公司克普勒表示，该地区多家炼油厂已停产或减产，部分是因遭受破坏。这意味着原油转化为汽油、柴油和航空燃油等燃料的产能将会减少。

That disruption — and concern that it might last for some time — sent international oil prices up around 37 percent since late February. Fuel prices quickly followed, with especially large gains in the cost of diesel and jet fuel.

这次供应中断，加之市场对其可能持续一段时间的担忧，推动国际油价自2月下旬以来上涨约37%。燃油价格紧随其后，柴油和航空燃油涨幅尤为显著。

上周，加利福尼亚州卡尔斯巴德市的汽油价格已突破每加仑五美元。

Qatar, meantime, stopped cooling natural gas for export last week, citing military attacks. That sent natural gas prices soaring in Europe and in Asia, which depend heavily on imported fuel. The United States, as the world’s top natural gas producer, has been comparatively insulated. (The natural gas market is much more regional than the oil market, largely because the colorless fuel is harder to transport.)

与此同时，卡塔尔上周以遭受军事袭击为由，暂停天然气液化出口，导致高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲和亚洲天然气价格暴涨。作为全球最大天然气生产国，美国相对未受影响。（天然气市场比石油更具区域性，主要因为这种无色燃料更难运输。）

Gasoline and diesel prices have been climbing at a time when many Americans are already worried about the economy and inflation. Many of those economic concerns can be traced to the last major energy disruption, after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

在许多美国人本就担忧经济与通胀之际，汽油和柴油价格持续攀升。这些经济焦虑很大程度上可追溯到2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的上一次重大能源危机。

Gasoline prices, which briefly topped $5 a gallon that year, had fallen considerably, so much so that the relatively low cost of filling up served as a counterweight to rising prices elsewhere in the economy — and a point of pride for President Trump. The war with Iran carries political risk for Mr. Trump, not least because of the toll that higher energy prices will most likely take on the U.S. economy.

当年美国汽油价格曾短暂突破每加仑五美元，此后大幅回落，低廉的加油成本成为对冲其他领域物价上涨的重要因素，也是特朗普总统引以为傲的政绩。与伊朗的战争对特朗普而言存在政治风险，尤其是高能源价格很可能拖累美国经济。

It is no coincidence that oil has re-emerged as both geopolitical tool and economic threat during a period when the United States is unwinding trading relationships and clashing with other great powers, said Meghan O’Sullivan, a deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan under President George W. Bush.

曾在小布什政府负责伊拉克和阿富汗事务的副国家安全顾问梅根·奥沙利文表示，在美国重塑贸易关系并与其他大国发生冲突的时期，石油重新成为地缘政治工具和经济威胁，这并非巧合。

“The energy weapon never went away, but there’s a whole confluence of global conditions — and then individual decisions by the Trump administration and others — that have really brought it back to the fore,” said Dr. O’Sullivan, now a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. “Energy can be a tool of foreign policy, but it can also be an objective.”

“能源武器从未消失，但一系列全球形势叠加特朗普政府等各方的决策，确实让它重新回到前台，”现任哈佛大学肯尼迪学院教授的奥沙利文说，“能源可以是外交政策工具，也可以是政策目标。”

For the latter, look no further than Mr. Trump’s pursuit of oil in Venezuela. And in recent weeks, the United States has blocked Cuba from accessing oil in an attempt to topple the country’s Communist government. Starved of energy, the island nation, which is exceptionally dependent on imported fuel, is facing a humanitarian crisis and widespread power outages.

后者最鲜明的例证莫过于特朗普对委内瑞拉石油的争夺。最近几周，美国切断古巴的石油供应，试图推翻其共产党政府。这个极度依赖进口燃料的岛国因能源匮乏，正面临人道主义危机和大范围停电。

In the Middle East, Iran has leaned on one of its strategic advantages: its ability to disrupt the flow of oil and natural gas through the Persian Gulf and hurt economies around the world.

在中东，伊朗正依靠自身一大战略优势：有能力扰乱波斯湾油气运输，冲击全球经济。

“This is going to underscore yet again how exposed countries are to energy sources that are produced outside their borders,” Dr. O’Sullivan said.

“这将再次凸显各国对境外能源供应的依赖程度，”奥沙利文说。

上周哈瓦那停电期间，人们在面包店外排队。美国的封锁正使古巴陷入能源短缺的困境。

How countries respond to the war in the long run will hinge partly on the severity of the economic fallout from higher energy prices. Reactions are also likely to vary by region, pushing countries in Asia and Europe that do not produce much oil or natural gas to adopt renewable energy faster. The United States, awash in oil and natural gas, may continue to lean into those strengths, at least under Mr. Trump, even though burning the fuels accelerates climate change.

各国对这场战争的长期应对策略部分取决于能源价格上涨带来的经济冲击程度。不同地区反应或将呈现差异：油气匮乏的亚洲和欧洲国家可能加快可再生能源部署；而油气资源丰富的美国，至少在特朗普执政下，可能继续倚重这一优势，尽管燃烧化石燃料会加速气候变化进程。

“For any country that does not have substantial supplies of oil and gas, a no-brainer conclusion is that investment in renewables plus storage is strategic from an energy security point of view,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, a former Obama administration official who is now dean and professor of energy and environmental policy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.

“对任何油气资源匮乏的国家来说，一个显而易见的结论是：从能源安全角度看，投资可再生能源及储能具有战略意义，”曾在奥巴马政府任职、现塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院院长兼能源与环境政策教授凯利·西姆斯·加拉格尔表示。

Clean energy comes with its own geopolitical risks, including greater reliance on China, which dominates the production of everything from solar panels to wind turbines and rechargeable batteries.

清洁能源也伴随地缘政治风险，包括对中国的依赖度上升——中国在太阳能板、风力涡轮机、可充电电池等诸多领域占据主导地位。

But unlike oil and gas, which countries need on an ongoing basis, securing wind and solar equipment is more of a one-time risk. Once a country has the tools to harness the sun and the wind, the energy sources themselves cannot be taken away.

但与各国持续依赖的油气不同，获取风能和太阳能设备更多属于一次性风险。一旦一个国家拥有了利用太阳能和风能的工具，这些能源本身就无法被夺走。

“You can’t weaponize the sun,” said Catherine Wolfram, a deputy assistant secretary for climate and energy economics in the Treasury Department in the Biden administration. “You can’t weaponize the wind.”

“你没法把太阳变成武器，”拜登政府财政部负责气候与能源经济的副助理部长凯瑟琳·沃尔弗拉姆说。“你也没法把风变成武器。”

Within hours of the first Israeli and American airstrikes hitting Iran last weekend, militiamen from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps deployed in neighborhoods across Tehran, the capital, and in most urban centers.

上周末，以色列和美国对伊朗发动首轮空袭后数小时内，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的武装人员便部署到首都德黑兰及大多数城市中心的各个街区。

Eyewitnesses and the occasional furtive video posted online depicted men in plainclothes, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles, manning checkpoints where they searched cars and cellphones, alert for signs of endorsing the war. Black anti-riot vehicles were lined up in places like closed schoolyards that were less likely to be struck by missiles.

目击者和网上零星流出的偷拍视频显示，身穿便衣、手持卡拉什尼科夫突击步枪的人员在检查站值守，盘查车辆与手机，警惕任何支持这场战争的迹象。黑色防暴车辆停在封闭校园等不太可能被导弹击中的地方。

“They tried to create the illusion for outsiders that they are in control, and inside to create fear for people so they do not dare come out to the street,” said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee and the author of “Captive Society: The Basij Militia and Social Control in Post-Revolutionary Iran.”

“他们试图对外界制造掌控一切的假象，对内制造恐惧，让人们不敢走上街头，”美国田纳西大学政治学教授、《被禁锢的社会——巴斯基民兵与革命后伊朗的社会控制》一书作者赛义德·戈尔卡尔表示。

President Trump has suggested that the Guards drop their weapons to buttress popular support for regime change. Analysts consider that scenario highly unlikely. Iran might appear to be a theocracy, and its official ideology is firmly rooted in Shiite Islam, but the Guards constitute the spine of a militarized state. Analysts consider their pervasive military, political and economic clout the main barrier to regime change, or any change, in Iran.

特朗普总统曾暗示革命卫队放下武器，助力民众对政权更迭的支持。分析人士认为这种情况极不可能发生。伊朗表面上是神权国家，官方意识形态牢牢植根于什叶派伊斯兰教，但革命卫队构成了这个军事化国家的支柱。分析人士认为，革命卫队在军事、政治与经济领域的广泛影响力，是阻碍伊朗政权更迭乃至任何变革的主要障碍。

Here is a primer on this powerful group.

以下是关于这个强大组织的基本介绍。

1980年两伊战争期间，伊朗卡斯尔希林附近的一名革命卫队士兵。

What is the I.R.G.C.?

什么是伊斯兰革命卫队？

In the early days of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, did not trust the armed forces, known as Artesh, a Farsi word for army. He was said to have muttered, “Artesh has the Shah in its blood.”

1979年伊斯兰革命初期，革命缔造者阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼不信任正规军伊斯兰共和国军队（波斯语称“阿尔特什”）。据说他曾低声说：“阿尔特什的血液里有沙阿的血统。”

So he organized a parallel armed force, the I.R.G.C., charged specifically with safeguarding the revolution. The core of the group were members of neighborhood committees, often organized around a mosque, that had been established to protect their areas and to liquidate perceived enemies of the revolution.

于是他组建了一支平行武装力量——伊斯兰革命卫队，专门负责捍卫革命成果。该组织的核心来自社区委员会的成员，这些委员会通常以清真寺为中心建立，旨在保护辖区并清除革命的潜在敌人。

The eight-year war that started when Iraq invaded in 1980 molded the Guards into a more cohesive force. The Guards took on tasks like building a missile development program virtually from scratch; Washington, its main arms supplier, had severed ties after the revolution.

1980年伊拉克入侵引发的八年战争将革命卫队塑造成更具凝聚力的力量。卫队承担起几乎从零开始的导弹研发计划等任务；革命后，美国这一主要武器供应国已切断了对伊朗的关系。

After the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, the new supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, turned the Guards into an elite force, marrying his office to its power, while allowing it to expand into politics and the economy.

1989年霍梅尼去世后，新任最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊将革命卫队打造成精锐部队，将其权力与最高领袖办公室绑定，同时允许其涉足政治与经济领域。

The Guards established a separate wing to manage reconstruction after the Iraq war. The group still builds roads, dams and other infrastructure. It also became adept at smuggling goods in and out of Iran, including oil, in response to Western economic sanctions imposed after 2002, when Iran’s then secretive nuclear development program was exposed.

革命卫队在伊拉克战争后成立了专门部门负责重建，至今仍在修建道路、水坝等基础设施。为应对2002年伊朗秘密核计划曝光后西方的经济制裁，卫队也开始精通石油等物资的进出口走私。

Today, the Guards control at least 25 percent of the economy and perhaps twice that amount, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

华盛顿国防民主基金会高级研究员贝赫纳姆·本·塔莱布卢表示，如今革命卫队控制着伊朗至少25%的经济，实际比例还可能翻倍。

By toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, the United States created an opening for the Guards to expand across the Middle East, using its Quds Force to build an axis of mostly Shiite Muslim militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. The Guards then became a major foreign policy player.

2003年美国推翻萨达姆·侯赛因，为革命卫队向中东扩张创造了契机。革命卫队通过圣城旅在黎巴嫩、叙利亚、伊拉克、也门和加沙建立起以什叶派民兵为主的轴心，由此成为重要的外交政策参与者。

2024年德黑兰阅兵式上的革命卫队。

How are the Guards structured?

革命卫队如何建构？

The Guards number between 125,000 and 180,000 men. Analysts peg the country’s overall security forces at up to 1.5 million, including the police. Not all Guards are armed; some work in fields like construction or cultural programs.

革命卫队兵力在12.5万至18万人之间。分析人士估计，包括警察在内，伊朗全国安全部队总人数高达150万。并非所有卫队成员都武装执勤，部分人员从事建筑、文化项目等工作。

There are four main military branches — ground, naval and aerospace forces along with the Quds Force, which is responsible for foreign operations. In addition, the Guards control various allied organizations including their own intelligence agency, as well as the Basij neighborhood militias.

革命卫队下设四大军事分支：地面部队、海军、空天部队以及负责境外行动的圣城旅。此外，卫队还控制着各类附属机构，包括自身的情报部门和巴斯基社区民兵。

The Guards follow a so-called “mosaic” strategy that emerged from both seeing the rapid collapse of central authority in Iraq during the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the domestic effort to squash the Green Movement, the nationwide antigovernment protests in 2009. A decentralized command structure was intended to insure that the Guards could maintain domestic control in case the provinces were ever cut off from Tehran, or could overcome any vacuum in the absence of the supreme leader, the ultimate decision maker.

卫队奉行所谓“马赛克战略”，这一策略源于2003年美国入侵伊拉克时该国中央政权迅速崩溃的教训，以及2009年镇压全国性反政府抗议浪潮“绿色运动”的经验。这种分散式指挥结构旨在确保，即便各省与德黑兰失联，或最高领袖这一最终决策者缺位，卫队仍能填补权力真空。

The strategy was further refined last June to strengthen Iran’s defense against an external enemy, analysts said, after Ayatollah Khamenei was a target of a 12-day war waged by Israel and the United States.

分析人士称，去年6月，在哈梅内伊成为美以发动的12天战争的打击目标后，这一战略经过了进一步完善，以强化伊朗抵御外部敌人的能力。

“They are acting according to the playbook,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. “The system is functioning without Khamenei.”

“他们正按预案行动，”柏林德国国际与安全事务研究所客座研究员哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹表示。“在没有哈梅内伊的情况下，这套体系仍在运转。”

While following a central blueprint, regional commanders have autonomy on decisions like when to launch missiles or drones. There are 31 commands, one for each province, with even smaller branches meant to puncture domestic protests in virtually every neighborhood.

在遵循中央蓝图的同时，地区指挥官在发射导弹或无人机等决策上拥有自主权。全国共设31个指挥部（每个省份各设一个），还有更基层的分支，几乎渗透到每个社区，以镇压抗议活动。

The current war, with the leadership in Tehran degraded, “is exactly the type of moment that the mosaic doctrine was meant to respond to,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”

《野心之战——美国、伊朗与中东争夺战》作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔指出，当前战争中，德黑兰领导层遭遇重创，“这正是马赛克战略旨在应对的时刻”。

阿赫迈德·瓦希迪准将于3月1日被任命为革命卫队新任指挥官。

Who commands the Guards?

革命卫队由谁指挥？

Israeli and American attacks have killed two Guards commanders, one in June and the second on Feb. 28.

美以袭击已造成两名卫队指挥官身亡，一人在6月遇袭，另一人在2月28日遇袭。

A veteran hard-line officer with a reputation for brutality, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, was appointed on March 1 to head the Guards. A former minister of the interior and defense, he was a founding commander of the Quds Force in 1988, leading it for eight years.

以残暴著称的资深强硬派军官艾哈迈德·瓦希迪准将于3月1日被任命为革命卫队总司令。他曾任内政部长与国防部长，1988年参与创建圣城旅并担任指挥官八年。

Mr. Vahidi is suspected of fostering overseas organizations that carried out terrorist attacks at Iran’s behest, including a deadly bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 people. Argentina, accusing Mr. Vahidi of approving the attack carried out by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, unsuccessfully sought his arrest through Interpol. Iran has repeatedly denied any involvement.

瓦希迪被怀疑扶持境外组织执行伊朗指使的恐怖袭击，包括1994年布宜诺斯艾利斯犹太社区中心爆炸案，该事件造成85人死亡。阿根廷指控瓦希迪批准黎巴嫩真主党实施袭击，曾通过国际刑警组织要求逮捕他，但未能成功。伊朗一再否认与此事有关。

Looking ahead

未来走向

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader and his likely heir, enlisted with the Guards during the Iraq war and has maintained particularly strong ties. As his father’s closest aide, he appointed its senior officers for the past two decades, and is now considered their heavy favorite, analysts said.

已故最高领袖之子、大概率接班的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在伊拉克战争期间曾加入革命卫队，与卫队关系尤为紧密。分析人士称，作为父亲最亲近的助手，他在过去20年间负责任命卫队高级军官，如今被视为卫队最属意的人选。

But the Guards are not monolithic. While some members helped to mow down protesters by the thousands in January, it is also a conscript force, so its foot soldiers mirror Iranian society — some disdain the Islamic system. A core group of 2,000 to 3,000 officers, however, are considered hard-liners whose rank and wealth are tied to the organization. They will fight to the bitter end, analysts said.

但革命卫队并非铁板一块。尽管部分成员在今年1月参与镇压、造成数千抗议者死亡，但卫队也实行征兵制，基层士兵反映了伊朗社会的真实面貌——其中一些人蔑视伊斯兰体制。不过，卫队核心的2000至3000名军官属于强硬派，其地位与财富均与革命卫队深度绑定。分析人士称，他们会战斗到底。

The emerging shock of climbing oil prices rumbled through Asia, where countries, rich and poor, tried to contain the economic fallout from the escalating war in the Middle East.

随着油价不断攀升的冲击开始显现，亚洲各国无论富裕还是贫穷，都在努力遏制中东不断升级的战争带来的经济冲击。

South Korea announced on Monday it would cap prices at the pump for the first time in nearly 30 years. In India, the city of Pune has temporarily suspended gas-based cremations, asking customers to use wood or electricity instead. Pakistan said it would increase gasoline prices by about 20 percent to throttle demand from regular drivers and allow diesel costs to remain low for trucks and buses.

韩国周一宣布，将对加油站的油价设定上限，这是近30年来首次。在印度，浦纳市已暂停使用天然气进行火化，要求民众改用木材或电力。巴基斯坦表示，将把汽油价格提高约20%，以抑制普通驾驶者的用油需求，同时让柴油价格保持低位，以减轻卡车和公交车的负担。

As the price of crude oil soared above $100 а barrel, governments are being forced to take increasingly extreme measures to protect consumers from punishing price increases and to constrain energy use to prevent shortages in a conflict with no end in sight. Few parts of the world are as acutely exposed as Asia to the curtailment of oil and gas from the Middle East, which accounts for a majority of the region’s energy imports.

随着原油价格飙升至每桶100美元以上，各国政府被迫采取越来越极端的措施，一方面保护消费者免受油价大幅上涨的冲击，另一方面限制能源使用，以防在这场看不到尽头的冲突中出现能源短缺。世界上很少有地区像亚洲这样对中东石油和天然气供应减少如此敏感，因为中东占该地区能源进口的大部分。

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and Oman that separates the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producers from their customers. Historically, roughly 20 million barrels pass through it each day, most of it bound for Asia. The strait has been effectively closed to seaborne traffic because of the conflict, leaving governments scrambling for solutions to keep fuel flowing and prices from spiraling out of control.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿曼之间的一条狭窄通道，它将世界最大的石油和天然气生产国与它们的客户分隔开来。从以往来看，每天约有2000万桶石油通过这里，其中大部分运往亚洲。由于这场冲突，该海峡实际上已经对海上运输关闭，使得各国政府不得不急忙寻找解决办法，以确保燃料供应并防止价格失控。

“There’s no replacement for that,” said Edward C. Chow, a former executive at Chevron who led international external affairs and managed operations in China. “The market sees a physical supply shortage.”

“这是无可替代的，”曾在雪佛龙负责国际对外事务和中国业务的爱德华·周说。“市场看到的是实打实的供应短缺。”

At gas stations across Hanoi, Vietnam, “sold out” signs have started to appear, with around 15 to 20 stations shutting their pumps in recent days. The authorities tried to reassure people on Monday that the country had enough oil in reserve for at least a month, urging residents not to stockpile gasoline or diesel.

在越南河内的加油站，“售罄”的标志已经开始出现，最近几天约有15到20家加油站停止供油。当地政府周一试图安抚民众，称该国至少还有一个月的石油储备，并呼吁民众不要囤积汽油或柴油。

Hoang Van Thang, 29, a motorbike taxi driver, said he waited 30 minutes to fill up his tank at a gas station in central Hanoi; he usually waited five minutes. He said his daily spending on gasoline had risen about 20 percent over the past week as fuel prices continued to climb.

29岁的摩的司机黄文胜（音）说，他在河内市中心的一家加油站等了30分钟才加满油，而平时只需要等五分钟。他说，随着油价持续上涨，在过去一周里，他每天花在汽油上的开支已经增加了约20%。

“The higher gasoline prices are eating into my daily income,” he said. “The increase in gasoline prices will push up the cost of everything else, from vegetables and meat to a bowl of pho.”

“油价上涨正在瓜分我每天的收入，”他说。“汽油价格上涨会推高所有其他商品的价格，从蔬菜、肉到河粉。”

Even if fighting stops soon, officials and analysts say the disruption to energy supply chains could last weeks.

官员和分析人士表示，即使战斗很快停止，能源供应链的中断也可能会持续数周。

Across Asia, governments have responded in different ways. Some are looking to limit the pain for consumers, while others are trying to ration scarce supplies.

在整个亚洲，各国政府采取了不同的应对方式。有些国家试图减轻消费者的痛苦，而另一些则试图定量配给稀缺的供应。

Tapping reserves.

动用储备。

Japan, South Korea and China are not ruling out the possibility of drawing down their vast reserves of oil set aside for times of crisis.

日本、韩国和中国都不排除动用为危机时期准备的大量石油储备的可能性。

When asked by a reporter whether China has decided to tap its reserves, Guo Jiakun, spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said in the briefing on Monday that the country “will do what is necessary to protect its energy security.”

当记者询问中国是否已经决定动用石油储备时，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆在周一的例行记者会上表示，中国“将采取必要措施保障自身能源安全”。

In Japan, government officials have instructed domestic oil-storage bases to prepare for a potential release of strategic reserves, local media reported on Monday. In a news conference, the country’s chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, said that no formal decision had been made to tap the reserves.

据日本媒体周一报道，日本政府官员已指示国内的石油储备基地为可能释放战略储备做好准备。在新闻发布会上，日本内阁官房长官木原稔表示，尚未就动用储备做出正式决定。

But accessing petroleum reserves is easier said than done, according to June Goh, a Singapore-based oil market analyst at Sparta, a commodities data firm. Reserves may not be easily retrieved, and it is challenging to get fuel to refiners before existing inventory runs out, she said.

但大宗商品数据公司Sparta驻新加坡的石油市场分析师吴朱妮（音）表示，动用石油储备说起来容易做起来难。她说，储备可能不易取用，而且在现有库存耗尽之前将燃料送到炼油厂手中也具有挑战性。

On Friday, Mitsubishi Chemical Group began scaling back production at a plant north of Tokyo that produces ethylene, a gas that is used to make plastics. Production at the plant was reduced after a disruption to the procurement of naphtha, a crude-derived feedstock used in ethylene production, according to a spokeswoman.

周五，三菱化学集团开始缩减其位于东京以北的一家工厂的产量。乙烯是一种用于制造塑料的气体。公司发言人称，该工厂减产的原因是用于乙烯生产的石脑油采购受阻。石脑油是一种由原油提炼而来的原料。

韩国总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令相关部门严厉打击囤积行为。

Capping prices.

设定价格上限。

In South Korea, officials on Monday moved to directly intervene in fuel markets. President Lee Jae Myung called for a price cap on gasoline and diesel and ordered the authorities to crack down on hoarding, collusion and price manipulation by refiners and gas stations.

在韩国，官员们周一采取行动直接干预燃料市场。总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令有关部门严厉打击炼油厂和加油站的囤积、串通以及价格操纵行为。

Price caps generally apply at the pump, limiting how much gas stations can charge motorists even as global crude prices surge. But such measures can shift the financial pressure elsewhere.

价格上限通常适用于零售环节，即在全球原油价格飙升的情况下，限制加油站向车主收取的费用。但此类措施可能会将财务压力转嫁到其他环节。

“If the government caps the retail price but doesn’t subsidize it, the cost falls on refiners,” Ms. Goh said. With crude prices climbing rapidly, forcing refiners to absorb the difference is not economical and “not a feasible solution in the short or medium term,” she said.

“如果政府设定零售价格上限但不提供补贴，那么成本就会落在炼油厂身上，”吴朱妮说。她表示，随着原油价格快速攀升，强迫炼油企业承担这部分差价并不经济，而且“在中短期内都不是可行的解决方案”。

The South Korean government has not yet announced how it will compensate suppliers for losses incurred from the price cap, the first of its kind in South Korea since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, said Kim Yong-beom, the chief policy coordinator at Mr. Lee’s office.

韩国总统室政策室长金容范表示，韩国政府尚未宣布将如何补偿因设定价格上限而遭受损失的供应商。这是自1997年亚洲金融危机以来韩国首次采取类似措施。

Taiwan, which imports more than 96 percent of its energy and gets about 60 percent of its oil through the strait, is racing to lock in supplies before they run out. About a quarter of its natural gas comes from Qatar, which halted production last week after Iranian strikes on two of its gas facilities.

台湾约96%以上的能源依赖进口，其中约60%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。如今，在供应耗尽之前，台湾正加紧锁定新的能源来源。台湾约四分之一的天然气来自卡塔尔，而卡塔尔在伊朗对其两处天然气设施发动袭击后，于上周暂停了生产。

To cover the shortfall through April, Taiwan needed to secure 22 vessels’ worth of natural gas shipments and had already contracted for 20 of them, the minister of economic affairs, Kung Ming-hsin, said Monday. “There will absolutely not be any gas shortages or power shortages,” he said. Taiwan also raised gasoline and diesel prices on Monday, but it said it was lowering commodity taxes at the same time to ease the impact on consumers and industry.

经济部长龚明鑫周一表示，为了弥补截至4月的供应缺口，台湾需要确保22艘液化天然气运输船的运量，目前已为其中20艘签订了合同。“绝对不会出现天然气短缺或电力短缺。”他说。台湾周一还上调了汽油和柴油价格，但同时表示将下调商品税，以减轻对消费者和产业的影响。

菲律宾的一家印刷厂。为节约能源，该国多个地方政府自周一起改为四天工作制。

Reducing demand.

减少需求。

Other governments are instead focusing on reducing energy usage.

其他国家政府则将重点放在减少能源消耗上。

Several local governments in the Philippines shifted to four-day work weeks on Monday. The governments of Manila, the capital; Cebu; and Negros Occidental said they were following President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s order for the executive branch to slash the number of working days.

菲律宾的多个地方政府周一开始实行每周四天工作制。首都马尼拉以及宿务和西内格罗斯省政府表示，他们正在执行总统费迪南德·马科斯二世关于行政部门减少工作天数的命令。

“We are victims of a war that is not of our choosing,” Mr. Marcos said in a statement on Friday, adding that the government was uncertain when the war would end.

马科斯周五在声明中表示：“我们是一场并非我们选择的战争的受害者。”他还说，政府并不确定战争何时会结束。

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in Asia to an oil price shock, with nearly 90 percent of its oil imports sourced from the Middle East. Unlike its neighbors, such as Indonesia and Thailand, which are partially shielded by fuel subsidies, prices at the pump in the Philippines are more market-driven.

菲律宾是亚洲受油价冲击影响最大的国家之一，其近90%的石油进口来自中东。与印尼和泰国等邻国（这些国家通过燃料补贴在一定程度上缓冲油价上涨）不同，菲律宾的燃油价格更多由市场决定。

Bangladesh is also in a dire situation. On Friday, the country’s new government said it had ordered fuel rationing and closed universities to conserve electricity and reduce transportation needs.

孟加拉国也处境艰难。上周五，该国新政府表示已下令实行燃料配给，并关闭大学以节约电力、减少交通需求。

In recent years, Bangladesh has been straining its national budget to buy gas for power generation. With most of its electricity now generated by gas-burning plants, it has become dependent on imports from the Gulf. The country’s new leaders, elected last month after protests toppled the previous authoritarian government, are desperate to avoid the kind of economic challenges that pressured the previous leaders.

近年来，孟加拉国为购买发电所需的天然气而承受沉重的财政压力。由于如今大部分电力来自燃气电厂，该国已经变得依赖从海湾地区进口天然气。在抗议活动推翻了之前的威权政府后，上月当选的国家新领导人迫切希望避免那种曾给前领导人带来压力的经济挑战。

In Vietnam, after two hikes in the price that the government sets for gas, diesel and household cooking gas — and the expectation of further increases — many people around Vietnam have lined up to fill up before prices go up again, while others are pausing travel plans.

在越南，在政府两次上调汽油、柴油和居民用燃气价格，并且市场预计还将继续上涨之后，许多越南民众纷纷排队，赶在下一轮涨价之前加满油，而另一些人则暂停了出行计划。

Fishermen along the coast are already delaying their trips, at the start of peak season for fishing in the South China Sea. Truck drivers are also struggling to maintain their usual schedules for bringing supplies to factories, and food and finished goods to ports.

沿海渔民已经开始推迟出海时间，而此时正是南海渔业旺季的开始。卡车司机也难以维持平时的运输节奏，无法及时将物资运往工厂，将食品和成品运往港口。

Fuel prices could soar, and stay elevated for months. That could make groceries and other shipped goods more expensive. And consumers and businesses, stung by the rising costs, could choose to spend less, constraining economic growth.

燃料价格可能会飙升，并持续数月保持高位。这可能导致食品和其他运输货物的价格上涨。而受到生活成本上涨打击的消费者和企业可能会选择减少开支，从而限制经济增长。

In the eyes of economists, that is the increasingly real and dire picture from the U.S.-led war with Iran, now in its second week. It may be a conflict of President Trump’s making, but it is becoming the world’s latest economic headache, one that has sent foreign leaders scrambling for ways to contain the possible fallout.

在美国领导的对伊战争进入第二周之际，这是经济学家眼中日益真实且严峻的图景。尽管冲突可能是特朗普总统亲手制造的，但它正成为全球最新的经济难题，迫使各国领导人匆忙寻找遏制潜在连锁反应的方法。

At the heart of the panic was a surge in the price of oil, which at one point on Monday shot above $100 a barrel. Because energy is central to the functioning of the global economy, the turbulence prompted heightened fears about a prolonged conflict that could exact a deep financial toll around the world, including on Americans.

恐慌的核心是油价激增，周一油价一度冲破每桶100美元。由于能源是全球经济运作的核心，这种动荡引发了人们对长期冲突的深度担忧，认为这可能给全世界（包括美国人）造成沉重的财务代价。

In response, world leaders convened an emergency meeting on Monday of the Group of 7 countries, where finance ministers considered, yet decided against, tapping their national stores of oil to increase available supply. It was only after Mr. Trump asserted later in the day that the war was nearing its conclusion that oil prices began to calm down again, falling to around $85 a barrel.

作为回应，世界领导人于周一召开了七国集团紧急会议。会上，各国财长考虑了动用国家石油储备以增加供应的方案，但最终决定放弃。直到当天晚些时候，特朗普声称战争已接近尾声，油价才开始回落，跌至每桶85美元左右。

“I knew oil prices would go up if I did this,” Mr. Trump told a news conference in Florida. “They’ve gone up probably less than I thought they’d go up.”

特朗普在佛罗里达州的一次新闻发布会上表示：“我知道这样做会导致油价上涨。但涨幅可能比我想象的要小。”

That fit a pattern for Mr. Trump, who has frequently brushed aside any economic blowback posed by his policy choices, including his military strikes on Iran. Previously, Mr. Trump has even described the sharp turn in gasoline prices as a “very small price to pay” for national security. The comments have offered a stark contrast with the president’s boasts about falling gas prices earlier in his second term, a development that he frequently portrayed as a strong gauge of the nation’s trajectory.

这符合特朗普的一贯风格：他经常对自己的政策选择（包括对伊朗的军事打击）所带来的经济反作用嗤之以鼻。此前，特朗普甚至将汽油价格的急升描述为国家安全的“极小代价”。这些言论与他在第二任期初期吹嘘油价下跌形成鲜明对比，当时他经常将这种下跌描绘成国家走向强盛的重要指标。

But the impact seemed anything but small for Americans. The average price of a gallon of gasoline reached nearly $3.48 nationally on Monday, according to AAA, a 16 percent increase from a week earlier. The surge in energy costs initially spooked financial markets, leading to sharp declines in the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes, which rebounded as the White House looked to tamp down concerns about the oil market.

但对美国人来说，影响绝非微不足道。根据美国汽车协会的数据，周一全美平均汽油价格达到每加仑近3.48美元，较一周前上涨了16%。能源成本的飙升最初惊吓了金融市场，导致标普500和其他主要股指大幅下跌。随后随着白宫试图平息对石油市场的担忧，股市有所回升。

“The White House is in constant coordination with the relevant agencies on this important issue, as it is a top priority to the president,” Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement.

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示：“白宫正就这一重要问题与相关机构保持密切配合，因为这是总统的首要任务。”

She described the surge in oil prices as a “short-term change,” adding that it would again “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”

她将油价飙升描述为“短期波动”，并称一旦“史诗愤怒行动”的目标达成，油价将再次“大幅下降”。

In many ways, the fallout around Iran has been similar to the global panic that greeted the start of Mr. Trump’s trade war nearly a year ago. Then, too, economists warned about looming upheaval, while world leaders panicked over the consequences for their economies. Some of the dire predictions came to pass, jolting consumers and businesses in ways still being felt today.

在许多方面，围绕伊朗局势产生的连锁反应与近一年前特朗普贸易战爆发时的全球恐慌十分相似。当时，经济学家同样警告称动荡即将来临，各国领导人也为其经济后果感到恐慌。而那些严峻的预测中，有些确实成为了现实，给消费者和企业带来了至今仍能感受到的冲击。

Yet Mr. Trump remained undeterred in both cases, forging ahead despite warnings that his strategy could inflict lasting economic damage, perhaps even touching off a global recession.

然而，在这两种情况下，特朗普都毫不动摇。尽管有人警告他的策略可能造成持久的经济损害，甚至引发全球衰退，他依然一意孤行。

“This is a very concerning shock to consumers, which have been a driving force in the economy,” said Tim Mahedy, chief economist at Access/Macro, a research firm, who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

研究机构Access/Macro的首席经济学家、曾任职于旧金山联邦储备银行的蒂姆·马赫迪表示：“对于一直以来作为经济驱动力的消费者来说，这是一个非常令人担忧的冲击。”

He noted that consumer spending, which drives roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic growth, was the only sector that expanded throughout most of last year. Now, with Americans having run through their savings, Mr. Mahedy said, the energy shock is “really hitting at a bad time.”

他指出，占美国经济增长约70%的消费支出是去年大部分时间里唯一增长的领域。马赫迪表示，现在美国人的储蓄已经耗尽，能源冲击“确实在一个糟糕的时机袭来”。

“I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists,” he said.

他说：“我非常担心，如果这种情况持续下去，可能会将我们推入经济衰退。”

Exactly how the war will ripple across the global economy may mostly depend on one factor — its duration. That’s because the conflict has obstructed shipping in the Persian Gulf, which has snarled much of the world’s oil and gas. The longer the slowdown, the worse the toll will be, though the administration has signaled it believes shipments could restart soon.

战争将如何波及全球经济，很大程度上取决于一个因素——持续时间。这是因为冲突阻碍了波斯湾的航运，而那里扼守着世界相当一部分石油和天然气的命脉。航运放缓的时间越长，代价就越惨重，尽管政府已发出信号，认为运输可能很快恢复。

If U.S. strikes on Iran conclude in a few weeks, most economists believe that the rise in gas prices and other disruptions may prove short-lived. But that doesn’t mean that the war will be painless, especially for Americans who are already suffering a real pinch at the pump.

如果美国对伊朗的打击在几周内结束，大多数经济学家认为，汽油价格上涨和其他干扰可能是短暂的。但这并不意味着战争是无痛的，尤其是对于那些已经感受到油价压力的美国人来说。

“If $100-per-barrel oil is sustained, you’re going to see the impact most directly in less consumer spending,” said Bernard Yaros, the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He added that low-income consumers would shoulder the heaviest burden because energy accounts for so much of their monthly spending.

“如果油价维持在每桶100美元，最直接的影响将是消费支出的减少，”牛津经济研究院美国首席经济学家伯纳德·雅罗斯表示。他还说，低收入消费者将面临最重的负担，因为能源支出占其月度开支的比重极大。

If hostilities continue for many months, however, the damage to the global economy could be more pronounced. Oil could stay above $100 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, carrying severe repercussions that would make goods more expensive and slow global growth, said Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

然而，如果敌对行动持续数月，对全球经济的损害可能会更加显著。EY-Parthenon首席经济学家格雷格·达科表示，在最坏的情况下，油价可能保持在每桶100美元以上，这将产生严重的后果，导致商品涨价并减缓全球增长。

A protracted conflict could cause inflation globally to rise about two percentage points faster than it would have otherwise, he estimated. In the United States, that means inflation could top 4 percent this year. The surge in prices would coincide with a slowdown that could tip off a recession and depress total U.S. output. The nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of that output, would grow only 1.6 percent in 2026, compared with the 2.4 percent originally projected, Mr. Daco found.

据他估算，持久的冲突可能会导致全球通胀率比正常水平高出约两个百分点。在美国，这意味着今年的通胀率可能突破4%。物价飙升将与经济放缓同时发生，这可能引发衰退并压低美国总产出。达科发现，2026年美国国内生产总值将仅增长1.6%，而最初的预测为2.4%。

These new risks have surfaced at a vexing moment for the U.S. economy, which is still growing when prices are high and the labor market is showing new signs of weakness. The competing forces are the result of factors including the meteoric rise of artificial intelligence and Mr. Trump’s policies, including his steep tariffs and mass deportations.

这些新风险出现在美国经济的一个棘手时刻：尽管物价高企，经济仍在增长，但劳动力市场已表现出疲软的新迹象。这些相互冲突的力量是由多种因素造成的，包括人工智能的飞速崛起，以及特朗普的政策，包括高额关税和大规模驱逐出境。

“This administration is a sequence of supply shocks,” Mr. Mahedy said. “This is coming on top of two other very significant supply shocks, tariffs and immigration policy.”

“本届政府就像是一连串的供应冲击，”马赫迪说。“眼前的冲击是叠加在关税和移民政策这两个非常剧烈的供应冲击之上的。”

Despite those warnings, the Trump administration has remained bullish about the pace of the war with Iran. Asked this weekend if he was concerned about the rise in gas prices, Mr. Trump told reporters: “No. This is a short excursion into something that should’ve been done for 47 years. No president had the guts to do it.”

尽管有这些警告，特朗普政府对战争的进程仍保持乐观。本周末，当被问及是否担心汽油价格上涨时，特朗普告诉记者：“不。这只是一次简短的出征，为的是一件本该在47年前就完成的事。以前没有哪位总统有这个胆量去做。”

But Mr. Trump has also not ruled out sending troops into the country, which would mark a dramatic escalation in the fighting. With an ever-shifting definition for what might render the operation a success, the president has taken some steps to insulate Americans from economic fallout.

但特朗普也没有排除向该国派遣地面部队的可能性，这将标志着战斗的剧烈升级。随着对行动“成功”定义的不断变动，总统已采取一些措施来保护美国人免受经济连锁反应的影响。

Last week, the U.S. government said it would offer limited protection and insurance for tankers crossing the Persian Gulf. The Treasury Department began taking steps that could allow for sanctioned Russian oil to be sold to other countries, including India.

上周，美国政府表示将为穿越波斯湾的油轮提供有限的保护和保险。财政部开始采取措施，可能允许被制裁的俄罗斯石油出售给包括印度在内的其他国家。

Lifting those sanctions, which were strengthened recently in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marked a dramatic turnabout for Mr. Trump, who had previously threatened withering tariffs against countries that purchased Russian energy. It was also an effort to bolster the oil supply, even as the president’s top aides insisted that they would not tap U.S. reserves to ease strains on the market.

取消这些制裁（由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，这些制裁近期刚刚得到加强）标志着特朗普态度的戏剧性转变，他此前曾威胁要对购买俄罗斯能源的国家征收惩罚性关税。此举也是为了增加石油供应，尽管总统的高级助手们坚称他们不会动用美国储备来缓解市场压力。

On its face, Iran’s choice of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message of continuity to a country battered by war. It was also a show of open defiance to Iran’s attackers.

表面上看，伊朗选择穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊出任新的最高领袖，是在向饱受战争蹂躏的国家传递延续性的信号。这同时也是对伊朗的攻击者公开展现强硬态度。

The United States and Israel killed the new leader’s father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the opening salvos of their attack on Iran. They had openly warned Iran against replacing him with his 56-year-old son — a hard-line cleric seen as close to Iran’s top military force.

美国和以色列在对伊朗发动攻击的初期就炸死了这位新领袖的父亲、前任最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。两国曾公开警告伊朗，不要让阿里·哈梅内伊56岁的儿子接班——穆杰塔巴是一名强硬派教士，被视为与伊朗最高军事力量关系密切。

The group of 88 clerics known as the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei despite those threats. That choice risks prolonging the war and creating more uncertainty for the country, should he meet the same fate as his father.

由88名教士组成的“专家会议”不顾这些威胁，依然推选了穆杰塔巴。这一选择可能会延长战争，一旦他遭遇与父亲同样的命运，也会给国家带来更大不确定性。

Iran was already deeply divided between those who support the clerical ruling system and those who oppose it. Choosing another hard-line leader may only deepen that divide.

伊朗国内支持神职统治体系与反对该体系的阵营本已严重分裂，再次选择一名强硬派领导人只会进一步加深这种分裂。

The decision is “laden with peril,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

国际危机组织资深伊朗分析师阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这一决定“充满危险”。

Iran’s new supreme leader lost not only his father to U.S.-Israeli strikes, but also his mother, wife, and daughter, Mr. Vaez said. That means Iran is now “concentrating power in the hands of a man loathed by much of his own people and consumed by fury toward Israel and the United States.”

瓦埃兹说，新的伊朗最高领袖不仅在美以打击中失去了父亲，还失去了母亲、妻子和女儿。这意味着伊朗如今“将权力集中到了一个被本国大部分民众厌恶、且对以色列和美国充满愤怒的人手中”。

President Trump called the younger Khamenei an “unacceptable” choice, and the Israeli military warned it would “continue to pursue every successor.”

特朗普总统称，小哈梅内伊是“不可接受”的选择，以色列军方则警告称，将“继续追剿任何继任者”。

As a political figure, the younger Khamenei is a relative unknown, both to Iranians and the world.

作为政治人物，无论对伊朗民众还是国际社会，小哈梅内伊都相对鲜为人知。

The older Khamenei was a known entity, unflinching in his resolve to crack down on internal dissent, as authorities killed thousands in protests in January, and insistent on the right to uranium enrichment as part of Iran’s nuclear program. Publicly, he ruled out actually building a nuclear bomb.

老哈梅内伊是外界熟知的人物，他在镇压国内异见时毫不手软——今年1月，当局在抗议活动中杀害了数千人；他坚持伊朗核计划中包含铀浓缩权利，但在公开场合排除实际制造核弹的可能。

阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊，摄于2024年。

Nevertheless, the concern that under his leadership, Iran could seek a nuclear weapon was held up as a reason for the United States and Israel to go to war.

尽管如此，外界担心在他领导下，伊朗可能谋求核武器，这也被美以当作发动战争的理由。

What is known about the new supreme leader is that he was influential behind the scenes while working in his father’s office, and is closely tied to Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

关于这位新任最高领袖，已知的是，他在父亲的办公室任职期间便在幕后颇具影响力，并与伊朗强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系紧密。

Founded to defend the Islamic Republic that was established after Iran’s 1979 revolution, the Revolutionary Guards have not only become Iran’s most powerful military force, they wield considerable political and economic influence. Their leaders have directed the waves of retaliatory ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region.

革命卫队成立的初衷是保卫1979年伊朗革命后建立的伊斯兰共和国，如今它不仅成为伊朗最强大的军事力量，还掌握着巨大的政治与经济影响力。其领导人指挥了多轮报复性弹道导弹与无人机袭击，目标包括以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和使馆。

The younger Khamenei was considered the preferred choice of the Revolutionary Guards for the supreme leader post.

小哈梅内伊被视为革命卫队属意的最高领袖人选。

“It is definitely a consolidation and empowerment of the deep state in Iran,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan.

米兰天主教大学伊朗问题专家阿卜杜勒拉苏尔·迪夫萨拉尔表示：“这无疑是伊朗深层国家势力的巩固与权力强化。”

Some experts worry the younger Khamenei could take the step that experts say his father never did, and race to build a nuclear bomb.

部分专家担心，小哈梅内伊可能迈出其父从未迈出的一步——加速研发核武器。

“A war that was meant to prevent Iran from having a bomb could be the war that actually pushed Iran beyond the Rubicon to reach a bomb,” said Danny Citronowicz, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, a think tank, and former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence.

智库大西洋理事会分析师、前以色列军事情报局伊朗部门主管丹尼·希特罗诺维奇说：“一场旨在阻止伊朗拥有核弹的战争反而可能真正推动伊朗破釜沉舟，最终造出核弹。”

Iranian officials appear to be signaling that they are digging in for a longer fight. On Monday, the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned against more attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.

伊朗官员似乎在释放信号，表明他们准备打一场更持久的战争。周一，外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇警告，不要进一步袭击伊朗能源设施与核场所。

“We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites,” he wrote on social media. “And we, too, have many surprises in store.”

“我们知道美国正在图谋针对我们的石油和核设施，”他在社交媒体上写道，“而我们也准备了许多惊喜。”

Internally, some political analysts argue that Mr. Khamenei could be more pragmatic than expected.

在伊朗国内，一些政治分析人士认为，哈梅内伊可能比外界预期的更务实。

Hassan Ahmadian, a political analyst at the University of Tehran, said that Mr. Khamenei’s position of strength among hard-liners opens the possibility for him to seek consensus in a way that weaker candidates could not.

德黑兰大学政治分析师哈桑·艾哈迈迪安表示，哈梅内伊在强硬派中拥有强势地位，这使他有可能以弱势候选人做不到的方式寻求共识。

“He could work with anyone and everyone within Iranian politics, based on the priorities he feels for Iran and for the country at this point,” he said.

“他可以根据他在现阶段为伊朗和国家设定的优先事项，与伊朗政界各方合作。”他说。

周一，在德黑兰，民众聚集起来，表达对穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的支持。

Some Iranians were hopeful that Mr. Khamenei would choose to play a role similar to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia — an authoritarian ruler who expanded social freedoms and rehabilitated the economy.

一些伊朗人希望，哈梅内伊能扮演类似沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的角色——一位扩大社会自由、振兴经济的威权统治者。

Farhad, a logistics manager in Tehran, said many Iranians might welcome a heavy security state coupled with improved foreign relations, and a slow, gradual easing of social restrictions. Like many Iranians inside the country, he asked to be identified by his first name only for fear of retaliation.

德黑兰物流经理法尔哈德说，许多伊朗人可能会接受一个实施严密安全管控的国家，同时期待改善对外关系，并逐步缓慢放宽社会限制。和许多伊朗国内民众一样，因担心遭到报复，他只愿透露名字。

Across the country, government supporters have taken to the airwaves and rallied in the streets to pledge their allegiance to the new leader.

在伊朗全国，政府支持者通过广播发声，并走上街头集会，宣誓效忠新领袖。

Mr. Khamenei’s rise may soon be seen as a predictable outcome the United States and Israel could have avoided, said Mr. Citronowicz, the analyst.

分析师希特罗诺维奇表示，穆杰塔巴上台或许很快会被视为一种美国和以色列本可避免的可预见结果。

“Mojtaba is one example of really not thinking in depth how this war could develop,” he said. “Now, he will try to do his utmost to strengthen Iran’s position, and in that sense, maybe we were better off with the father.”

“穆杰塔巴是一个典型例子，说明这场战争的走向没有经过深思熟虑，”他说。“现在，他会尽全力巩固伊朗的地位。从这个角度看，或许还是他父亲在位对我们更有利。”

With oil prices surging and the conflict in the Middle East intensifying, the economic stakes for China are rising.

随着油价飙升、中东冲突不断升级，中国面临的经济风险也越来越大。

The cost of oil on Monday hit levels not seen in four years, one week after the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, an ally and financial partner to China. Fighting has halted virtually all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for China’s energy and goods.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击一周后，本周一，油价攀升至四年来的最高水平。伊朗是中国的盟友和金融合作伙伴。战事几乎完全阻断了霍尔木兹海峡的航道交通，而这条海峡是中国能源和货物运输的重要通道。

China has a lot to lose in a widening conflict. In Iran, China found a cheap source of oil in recent years. Across the region, it found governments keen for its know-how in renewable energy and technology. China grew reliant, like much of the rest of the world, on the Middle East’s supply of both oil and gas.

若冲突持续扩大，中国可能会承受惨重损失。近年来，中国在伊朗找到了廉价的石油来源。在整个中东地区，中国也发现许多政府渴望获得其在可再生能源和技术方面的经验。与世界上大多数国家一样，中国也越来越依赖中东的石油和天然气供应。

The region’s importance to China became even more pronounced this past year, as the country’s trade rivalry with the United States escalated and it was unable to sell many goods to the U.S. market, once China’s biggest market. The United Arab Emirates became the fastest-growing market for Chinese cars. Demand from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors for Chinese steel doubled. China’s exports to the Middle East grew nearly twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world in 2025.

过去一年里，随着中美贸易竞争加剧，中国难以向其曾经最大的市场——美国市场出售大量商品，中东地区对中国的重要性变得更加突出。阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。沙特及其邻国对中国钢铁的需求增加了一倍。2025年，中国对中东的出口增长速度几乎是对世界其他地区出口增速的两倍。

Chinese investment, too, is growing faster there than anywhere else in the world.

中国在该地区的投资增长速度也超过世界其他任何地方。

“The region is basically considered the biggest growth potential for China,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. From 2019 to 2024, China invested $89 billion directly into the Middle East, Ms. Wang said.

“该地区基本上被视为中国增长潜力最大的地区，”欧亚集团中国区总监王丹表示。从2019年到2024年，中国在中东的直接投资达到890亿美元，王丹说。

阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。

These trade ties are now in the line of fire as the American and Israeli militaries attack Iran, and Iran strikes back at ports, ships, pipelines, desalination plants, data centers and other critical infrastructure across the region. The seaborne transit of not only energy but goods carried on giant container ships through the Strait of Hormuz are imperiled.

如今，随着美国和以色列军队攻击伊朗，伊朗又对整个地区的港口、船只、输油管道、海水淡化厂、数据中心以及其他关键基础设施进行反击，这些贸易联系如今正处在风口浪尖。不仅能源运输，就连通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型集装箱船所运载的各项物资也面临危险。

China also has credit at risk, having extended loans for contracts and projects throughout the region.

由于中国为该地区的合同和项目提供了贷款，它还面临信贷风险。

The portion of China’s global portfolio of loans and grants to the region doubled to 10 percent in 2023, according to AidData, a research institute at William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. State-owned financial institutions extended loans to oil refineries and seaports that finance the production and transport of commodities.

根据弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡的威廉与玛丽学院研究机构AidData的数据，到2023年，中国向该地区提供的贷款和赠款在其全球投资中的占比已翻倍至10%。国有金融机构向炼油厂和海港提供贷款，为大宗商品的生产和运输提供资金。

In Qatar, Chinese banks are helping to fund and build a major expansion of a liquefied natural gas production facility. China’s state-owned oil giant Sinopec holds a stake in the facility’s North Field East expansion project. The facilities were attacked last week.

在卡塔尔，中国的银行正在为一项大型液化天然气生产设施扩建项目帮助提供资金并参与建设。中国国有石油巨头中国石化持有该设施北方气田东扩项目的股份。该设施上周遭到袭击。

Chinese investors have funded the expansion of Israel’s Haifa Port and the Emirates’ Khalifa Port, and the resulting terminals are owned and operated by Chinese companies.

中国投资者还为以色列海法港和阿联酋哈利法港的扩建提供了资金，扩建后的码头由中国公司拥有并运营。

In Iran, dozens of Chinese companies have financed, built and run infrastructure, electric grids and petrochemical plants.

在伊朗，数十家中国公司投资、建设和运营着基础设施、电网和石化工厂。

China is also the largest investor in desalination in the Middle East, where potable water is scarce. Nearly all of the projects have been built by Power Construction Corporation of China, with projects in Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Oman and Iraq.

中国也是中东地区海水淡化领域最大的投资者，该地区饮用水资源匮乏。几乎所有项目都由中国电力建设集团建设，项目遍布沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、阿曼和伊拉克。

霍尔木兹海峡的一个港口，霍尔木兹海峡是运输中国货物的重要水道。

“There are so many countries and so many assets spread across the region,” said Brad Parks, the executive director of AidData. “We could see in the deal flow there was just a lot of enthusiasm about doing more and more work in the Middle East.”

“该地区国家众多，资源也十分丰富，”AidData执行董事布拉德·帕克斯说。“从交易情况来看，人们对在中东开展越来越多项目充满热情。”

Major Chinese technology companies like Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent have set up offices in Dubai, where employees work in a complex that includes Microsoft, Meta and Google. Three Chinese smartphone brands — Transsion, Xiaomi and Honor — are gaining market share in the region, after the South Korean giant Samsung, according to Omdia, a tech research firm.

华为、阿里巴巴和腾讯等中国大型科技公司已在迪拜设立办公室，员工与微软、Meta和谷歌等公司在同一园区办公。根据科技研究公司Omdia的数据，三家中国智能手机品牌——传音、小米和荣耀——在该地区迅速扩大市场份额，仅次于韩国巨头三星。

It’s not only large companies seeking fortunes in the Middle East.

前往中东寻求机会的不只是大型企业。

In 2018, Haiyang Zhang, a Chinese entrepreneur, moved to Dubai, the Emirates’ largest city and a hub for international finance and visitors. She left a job at a Chinese-company this year to start her own business helping Chinese investors expand in Dubai. Some of her partners are in the new energy sector. Ms. Zhang believes Dubai remains a secure place for certain Chinese investors to put their money, she said, but is concerned about the impact of a sustained conflict.

2018年，中国企业家张海洋移居阿联酋最大城市、国际金融和旅游枢纽迪拜。今年，她辞去了在中国公司的工作，创办了自己的公司，帮助中国投资者在迪拜拓展业务。她的一些合作伙伴来自新能源行业。张女士表示，她仍然认为迪拜对部分中国投资者来说是一个安全的投资地点，但她也担心持续冲突带来的影响。

Over the past week, several Chinese companies with growing presences in the Middle East instructed their employees in the region to work remotely. On March 1, the tech giant Baidu said it would pause its robotaxi services in the Emirates. The Chinese food delivery platform Keeta has indicated that its services in the region may be suspended or temporarily limited.

过去一周，一些在中东业务不断扩张的中国公司已指示当地员工远程办公。3月1日，科技巨头百度表示将暂停其在阿联酋的自动驾驶出租车服务。中国外卖平台Keeta也表示，在该地区的服务可能会暂停或暂时受限。

China’s foreign ministry said last week that one Chinese citizen had died and more than 3,000 nationals had been evacuated from Iran. It has not said how many Chinese nationals are in the region.

中国外交部上周表示，一名中国公民在伊朗死亡，超过3000名中国公民已从伊朗撤离。但外交部并未透露目前有多少中国公民在该地区。

Oil from the Middle East is critical to China’s energy security. It imports a little over half of its seaborne crude from the Middle East, and about a quarter of that comes from Iran. Like countries all over the world, China faces higher energy costs as global prices rise.

来自中东的石油对中国的能源安全至关重要。中国进口的海运原油中，超过一半来自中东，其中约四分之一来自伊朗。随着全球油价上涨，中国与世界各国一样面临更高的能源成本。

China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, which is under U.S. sanction, although the imports made up a little over 13 percent of the seaborne crude it took in during 2025, according to Kpler, an industry data firm. China also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan. Still, a loss of Iranian supply would force China to find other sources, which would be much more expensive than the discounted oil it bought from Tehran.

伊朗石油正受到美国制裁，而中国是伊朗石油的主要买家。尽管根据行业数据公司Kpler的数据，2025年中国进口的伊朗石油仅占其海运原油总量的13%多一点。中国还运营三条主要原油管道，其中两条从俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦输送石油。即便如此，一旦失去来自伊朗的供应，中国将不得不寻找其他来源，而这些来源的价格将远高于从德黑兰购买的折扣石油。

随着与伊朗的冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与中东多国外长通话。

Despite China’s deep financial ties in the Middle East, it is facing the same risks as other countries, including the United States, that are heavily invested in and dependent on the region.

尽管中国在中东拥有深厚的金融联系，但它与其他在该地区投入巨大并高度依赖该地区的国家（包括美国）面临着相同的风险。

China has condemned the strikes by Israel and the United States and called for a cessation of the fighting. As the conflict has escalated, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has held calls with counterparts in Iran, Oman, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

中国谴责了以色列和美国的袭击，并呼吁停止战斗。随着冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与伊朗、阿曼、以色列、沙特阿拉伯以及阿联酋的外长级人物通了电话。

But Iran’s threats have caused traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to plunge. And it’s not just energy that’s getting blocked. The Chinese shipping giant Cosco stopped bookings through the strait, and Maersk, the Danish company, suspended certain critical routes in the Middle East.

但伊朗的威胁已导致霍尔木兹海峡的航运量大幅下降。受到阻碍的不仅是能源运输。中国航运巨头中远海运已经停止通过该海峡的船期预订，丹麦航运公司马士基也暂停了中东地区部分关键航线。

Ms. Zhang, the Chinese entrepreneur in Dubai, said she observed American businesses and executives evacuating from the region, and to her that spells opportunity.

在迪拜的中国企业家张女士表示，她注意到美国企业和高管正在从该地区撤离，在她看来，这意味着机会。

“Their motivation to evacuate,” she said, “is far greater than that of the Chinese.”

“他们撤离的动机远远强于中国人，”她说。

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the recently killed supreme leader, as his father’s successor, according to a statement from top clerics published on state media early Monday local time, signaling the continuity of hard-line theocratic rule as Israeli and U.S. airstrikes pound the country.

当地时间周一凌晨，伊朗通过官方媒体发布高级教士声明，宣布任命前不久被杀的最高领袖之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊为其父继任者。美以空袭持续轰炸伊朗之际，此举标志着强硬派神权统治的延续。

Mr. Khamenei himself, though, is something of a mystery even within Iran.

但穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊本人即使在伊朗国内也颇具神秘色彩。

He is a son of the recently killed supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and has been an influential figure in the shadows of power, coordinating military and intelligence operations at his father’s office. He is known to have very close ties to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and was considered their favored candidate.

他是不久前遇袭身亡的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊之子，长期作为权力幕后的重要人物，在父亲办公室协调军事与情报行动。他与权势强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系极为密切，被视为卫队属意的候选人。

Unlike his father, Mr. Khamenei, 56, carries the full religious credentials as an ayatollah at the moment of his ascension. He was known for teaching popular Shiite seminary classes.

与父亲不同，现年56岁的哈梅内伊在接任时已拥有完整的阿亚图拉宗教资质，曾以在什叶派神学院开设广受欢迎的课程而闻名。

But his personality or politics outside of his father’s tight inner circle are not known. He seldom speaks or appears in public. And now he will take the helm not just as Iran’s new religious and political authority, but also as the commander in chief of its armed forces.

但在父亲严密的核心小圈子之外，他的个人性格与政治立场鲜为人知。他极少公开发言或露面。如今，他不仅即将掌管伊朗新的宗教与政治最高权力，还将担任武装部队总司令。

Vali R. Nasr, an expert on Iran and Shiite Islam at Johns Hopkins University, said that Mr. Khamenei would be a surprising choice, but a telling one.

约翰斯·霍普金斯大学伊朗与什叶派问题专家瓦利·纳赛尔表示，穆杰塔巴的继任出人意料，却很能说明问题。

“The choice of Mojtaba is choice of continuity with his father, and also he is more ready than other candidates to quickly consolidate power and assert control over the system,” said Mr. Nasr. He added that Mr. Khamenei had been considered a successor for a long time; but for the past two years, he had seemed to have dropped off the radar.

“选择穆杰塔巴是选择延续他父亲的路线，而且相比其他候选人，他更有能力迅速巩固权力、掌控整个体系，”纳赛尔说。他还说，穆杰塔巴很早便被视为接班人，但过去两年似乎淡出了公众视野。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had indicated to close advisers that he did not want his son to succeed him because he did not want the role to become hereditary, according to three senior Iranian officials familiar with Mr. Khamenei and the selection process. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal issues.

据三位熟悉穆杰塔巴及继任流程的伊朗高级官员透露，已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊曾向亲信顾问表示，不希望儿子接班，以免最高领袖一职变成世袭。这些官员因讨论敏感内部事务要求匿名。

After all, the Islamic revolution in 1979 had toppled a monarchy with the promise to end the hereditary transfer of power and return it to the people.

毕竟，1979年伊斯兰革命正是推翻了君主制，承诺终结权力世袭、将权力归还人民。

But Mr. Khamenei’s ascension suggests that those in Iran’s circles of power — the senior clerics, the Guards and influential politicians, such as the head of the National Security Council, Ali Larijani — had closed ranks at a time of acute crisis and war.

但穆杰塔巴的接任表明，在这场严重危机与战争时刻，伊朗权力核心圈——包括高级教士、革命卫队，以及包括国家安全委员会主席阿里·拉里贾尼在内的实权政治人物——已经团结一致。

Mr. Larijani, a pragmatic veteran politician who has taken center stage in running the country, and Mr. Khamenei are old allies and friends. Both men are also influential within Iran’s armed forces.

在国家运转中站到前台的务实派资深政治人物拉里贾尼与穆杰塔巴是多年盟友与好友，两人在伊朗武装部队内部均拥有深厚影响力。

The Revolutionary Guards were founded as an ideological force charged with defending the Islamic republic and its borders, and to provide a buffer layer of security in case of defections and coups in the army. The Guards have since turned into a political, military and economic powerhouse. They are directing the waves of ballistic missiles and drones against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region, as massive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue.

伊斯兰革命卫队最初作为意识形态武装力量成立，职责是捍卫伊斯兰共和国及其边境，并在军队出现叛逃或政变时提供安全缓冲。如今，卫队已成为集政治、军事、经济于一体的庞大势力。美以持续大规模空袭之际，他们正指挥一波波弹道导弹与无人机攻击以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和美国使馆。

Mr. Khamenei was selected by a group known as the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior Shiite clerics. Even as the assembly was debating its choice on Tuesday, Israel struck a building in Qum, one of Shiite Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly would traditionally meet to vote on a new leader. But the building was empty, according to the Fars News agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, and the clerics were meeting virtually for security.

穆杰塔巴由名为“专家会议”的机构选出，该机构由88名什叶派高级教士组成。就在该机构周二商议人选时，以色列空袭了库姆一座建筑，这里是什叶派主要权力中心之一，也是专家会议传统上投票选举新领袖的场所。但据隶属革命卫队的法尔斯通讯社称，当时建筑内无人，教士们出于安全考虑转为线上开会。

During the deliberations, the majority of the senior clerics in the assembly pushed for Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, arguing that he had the qualifications needed to steer Iran in this moment, according to the three Iranian officials. Some clerics said that after the Ayatollah had been killed by America and Israel, choosing his son would honor his legacy.

三位伊朗官员表示，商议期间，专家会议中多数高级教士支持任命穆杰塔巴，认为他具备在当前时刻领导伊朗所需的资质。部分教士称，在阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遭美以刺杀后，选择他的儿子是对其遗志的致敬。

“Mojtaba is the wisest pick right now because he is intimately familiar with running and coordinating security and military apparatuses,” Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Tehran, said in an interview. “He was in charge of this already.”

“穆杰塔巴是目前最明智的人选，因为他对安全与军事机构的运作和协调极为熟悉，”现居德黑兰的分析人士迈赫迪·拉赫马蒂在采访中表示。“这些工作他本来就在负责。”

周日，伊朗民众在德黑兰哀悼最高领袖逝世。

But Mr. Rahmati acknowledged that the appointment carries the risk of further polarizing a population that is deeply divided, with many Iranians deeply opposed to the Islamic republic’s rule.

但拉赫马蒂也承认，这一任命可能让本就严重分裂的伊朗社会进一步两极分化，许多伊朗民众强烈反对伊斯兰共和国统治。

“A portion of the public will react negatively and forcefully to this decision, and it will have a backlash,” he said.

“部分民众会对这一决定做出强烈负面反应，会引发反弹，”他说。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had the final say on all main state matters. He showed little flexibility on domestic reforms, and offered few concessions in nuclear negotiations with the United States. He ordered the lethal crackdown on nationwide protests in January that were calling for the end to his rule. Security forces killed at least 7,000 people during that crackdown, according to rights groups that say the numbers could rise significantly when verification is completed.

已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊对国家所有重大事务拥有最终决定权。他在国内改革上态度强硬，在与美国的核谈判中极少让步。他曾下令镇压今年1月呼吁终结其统治的全国性抗议活动。人权组织称，安全部队在镇压中杀害了至少7000人，核实工作完成后这一数字还可能大幅上升。

Since the war began, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have killed not just Mr. Khamenei’s father, but also his wife, Zahra Adel; his mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh; and a son; the Iranian government said.

伊朗政府表示，战争爆发以来，美以空袭不仅导致穆杰塔巴的父亲身亡，他的妻子扎赫拉·阿德尔、母亲曼苏雷·霍贾斯泰·巴格赫扎德以及他的一个儿子也被杀害。

Other candidates who were considered to be finalists for the supreme leader role were Alireza Arafi, a cleric and jurist who was part of the three-person transition council of leadership named after Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic revolution’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

此前进入最高领袖最终候选名单的还有阿里礼萨·阿拉菲与赛义德·哈桑·霍梅尼。阿拉菲是教士兼法学家，也是阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遇袭后成立的三人权力过渡委员会成员；霍梅尼则是伊斯兰革命奠基人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼的孙子。

Both Mr. Arafi and Mr. Khomeini are viewed as moderates, with the latter being close to the sidelined reformist political faction in Iran.

阿拉菲与霍梅尼均被视为温和派，后者与伊朗遭边缘化的改革派政治派系关系密切。

Some analysts hold that Mr. Khamenei might yet lean toward reform, despite his father’s style. They argue that he is of a younger, more pragmatic generation of clerics and because of his lineage would face less resistance from the hard-line and conservative factions.

部分分析人士认为，尽管其父风格强硬，穆杰塔巴仍有可能倾向改革。他们认为，他属于更年轻、更务实的一代教士，且凭借家族背景，他面临的强硬派与保守派系阻力更小。

Abdolreza Davari, a politician close to Mr. Khamenei, said in a phone interview from Tehran that if Mr. Khamenei did succeed his father, he might emerge as a figure in the style of the Saudi Arabian leader Mohammed bin Salman, who has brought some liberalization to his society.

与穆杰塔巴关系密切的政界人士阿卜杜勒雷扎·达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示，如果穆杰塔巴继任，其执政风格或将类似沙特阿拉伯领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼——后者已为本国社会带来一定程度的自由化改革。

“If there is anyone who could move toward some sort of de-escalation with the United States, it is him — any other person would face backlash from the ruling class and conservatives,” said Mr. Davari. “He intends to bring structural change.”

“如果说有谁能推动与美国的某种缓和，那就是他——换作其他人，都会遭到统治阶层与保守派的强烈反弹，”达瓦里说。“他有意推动结构性变革。”

How Washington would view him is uncertain. On Tuesday, at a news conference in Washington, President Trump said that many of the people his government had viewed as potential leaders of Iran had been killed since the fighting began. “Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody,” he said.

华盛顿方面将如何看待他仍不明确。周二，特朗普总统在华盛顿新闻发布会上表示，自冲突开始以来，他的政府认为可能成为伊朗领导人的不少人物已被击毙。“很快我们就谁都不认识了，”他说。

Asked about a worst-case scenario in Iran, he said: “I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person. Right, that could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”

当被问及伊朗可能发生的最坏局面时，他表示：“我想最糟糕的情况就是，我们采取这个行动，结果上台的人和前任一样坏。没错，这有可能发生。我们不希望出现这种情况。”

At first glance, the Chinese director Lou Ye’s newest film looks like a departure from form.

乍一看，中国导演娄烨的新作似乎偏离了他一贯的风格。

It does not touch on the taboo subjects, like China’s coronavirus lockdowns or the Tiananmen Square massacre, that earned him the moniker “the king of banned films.” It does not examine how ordinary Chinese respond to a changing society, the animating question of Mr. Lou’s oeuvre. There isn’t even dialogue, only music.

这部电影没有触及那些为他赢得“禁片之王”绰号的禁忌题材——比如中国的新冠封控或六四事件。它也没有探讨普通中国人如何应对不断变化的社会，而这本是娄烨作品中最核心的命题。影片甚至没有对白，只有音乐。

It is a concert film about a Chinese rock band, ReTROS — Mr. Lou’s first foray into nonfiction after decades of feature films.

这是一部关于中国摇滚乐队“重塑雕像的权利”的演唱会电影——也是娄烨数十年来剧情片创作后首次涉足非虚构领域。

For Mr. Lou, these differences are mostly semantic. “The distinction we draw between feature films and documentaries is a mistake,” Mr. Lou, 60, said in an interview at his studio in Beijing, not long after the film, “Re-TROS ‘After the Applause,’” made its premiere in the city last fall.

对娄烨而言，这些差异在很大程度上只是形式上的区别。“我们把剧情片和纪录片截然分开，这本身就是一个错误，”去年秋天在他的电影《重塑雕像的权利“喝彩之后”南京演唱会》在北京首映后不久，现年60岁的娄烨在位于北京的工作室接受采访时说。

“As long as there’s a camera pointed at you, reality has already subtly changed,” he said.

“只要有摄像机对着你，现实就已经发生了微妙的改变，”他说。

A resistance to clear lines or categories runs through Mr. Lou’s work — and his life.

对明晰界限和分类的抗拒一直贯穿着娄烨的作品，也贯穿着他的人生。

His shaky, hand-held camerawork evokes realism, but the stories are often dreamlike or fantastical. The films start with real moments in Chinese history but feature mysterious look-alikes and stories within stories.

他手持摄像机摇晃的镜头营造出一种现实主义感，但故事往往如梦境般，甚至带有奇幻色彩。影片常常以中国历史的真实时刻出发，却充斥着长相相似的神秘人物，以及层层嵌套的故事。

He is best known for his clashes with Chinese censors, who have barred about half of his films from screening in the country. (He is sometimes compared to Jafar Panahi, the Iranian director who has been jailed for his films.) But Mr. Lou has also made movies released widely in Chinese theaters, featuring big budgets and even bigger stars, sometimes while battling censors on another film at the same time.

他最广为人知的是与中国审查机构的冲突，他约有半数的电影被禁止在国内公映。（因此，他有时被比作因电影入狱的伊朗导演贾法尔·帕纳西。）但娄烨也执导过在中国院线广泛上映的电影，这些作品预算庞大，明星云集，有时他甚至是在与审查机构就另一部影片周旋的同时，完成这些商业片的制作。

Some Chinese filmmakers defy censorship early in their careers, then shift solidly into the mainstream; others remain on the fringes. Few have moved so continuously between the two.

有些中国导演在职业生涯早期挑战审查制度，随后完全进入主流；还有一些则始终停留在边缘地带。但很少有人像他这样，持续在两者之间来回穿梭。

“Is that a good thing or a bad thing?” Mr. Lou said, when asked about that feat.

当被问到这一点时，娄烨说：“你说这是好事还是坏事？”

娄烨工作室里的《颐和园》和《风中有朵雨做的云》电影海报。

While his films have been honored at Cannes and Venice, he said he wanted most to reach a Chinese audience, who would be most likely to understand them. He has accepted significant cuts to some films to see them released domestically. (The concert film is awaiting approval for wider release.)

尽管他的电影已在戛纳和威尼斯电影节上获奖，但他表示自己最渴望的仍是触达中国观众，因为他们最有可能理解他的作品。为了能让一些电影在国内上映，他接受了大幅删减。（这部演唱会电影目前仍在等待更广泛上映的许可。）

Mr. Lou’s wife and frequent screenwriter, Ma Yingli, said in an interview that they tried not to think about censorship until submitting a movie for review. “If you do that, you’ll never be able to make a film,” she said. “If problems arise later, you can try to find solutions,” she added, such as cuts or edits.

娄烨的妻子、也是他经常合作的编剧马英力在采访中说，他们在把电影送审之前，尽量不去考虑审查问题。“如果那样做，你就永远拍不出电影，”她说。“如果之后真的出现问题，再想办法解决。”她补充道，比如删减或修改。

But some topics felt so urgent, Mr. Lou said, that he would not have been able to continue making films if he had not addressed them. That was true of “Summer Palace,” his 2006 film about disillusioned lovers after the Tiananmen massacre, because of his experience as a student during the demonstrations. It was also true of “An Unfinished Film,” a metafictional look at filmmaking under lockdown, because he felt the pandemic had redefined the relationship between people, screens and reality.

但娄烨表示，有些题材让他感觉如此紧迫，以至于如果不将其呈现出来，他就无法继续拍电影。2006年的《颐和园》便是如此，这部影片讲述了关于天安门事件后梦想幻灭的恋人们的故事，因为他本人在学生时代亲身经历过那些示威抗议活动。他的新片《一部未完成的电影》亦是如此，这部以元虚构（metafictional，也被称为后设，译注）手法展现疫情封锁期间电影拍摄的影片，源于他深切感受到疫情重新定义了人与人、人与屏幕以及人与现实之间的关系。

“Generally speaking, if you don’t violate an artist’s basic expression, I think restrictions and obstacles are quite normal,” he said. “But if you push past that point, the artist may push back.”

他说：“一般来说，只要不侵犯艺术家最基本的表达，我认为限制和障碍都是很正常的。但如果越过了那条线，艺术家可能就会反抗。”

He described this reaction as reflexive, out of his control. “That’s not about cinema anymore,” he said.

他把这种反应形容为一种本能的反射，不受自己控制。“那已经不是电影本身的问题了，”他说。

Mr. Lou was born in Shanghai, to an actor and an acting teacher. At age 20, in 1985, he enrolled at the Beijing Film Academy to study directing.

娄烨出生于上海，父母分别是演员和表演教师。1985年，20岁的他考入北京电影学院学习导演。

It was a time of heady experimentation, as China’s leaders loosened their grip on the economy and, cautiously, culture. The graduates from the academy in those years later became known as the pioneers of Chinese underground cinema. They made low-budget films documenting the unglamorous side of China’s boom and did not submit them to the state film administration, meaning they could not enter theaters.

那是一个大胆实验的时代，中国领导层开始放松对经济的控制，同时也谨慎地放宽了对文化的管制。那些年从电影学院毕业的学生后来成为中国地下电影的先锋人物。他们拍摄低成本电影，记录中国经济繁荣背后不那么光鲜的一面，并且不向国家电影局送审，这意味着他们的电影无法进入影院。

Mr. Lou’s breakout film was “Suzhou River” in 2000, a noirish tale of a man searching for his lost lover in a seedy, industrial Shanghai. It was Mr. Lou’s first encounter with international acclaim, winning a prize at the Rotterdam film festival, but also his first major run-in with the authorities. Because he had not obtained officials’ permission to submit the film to the festival, they banned him from making movies for two years.

娄烨的成名作是2000年的《苏州河》，这是一部带有黑色电影风格的作品，讲述一个男人在破败的、工业化的上海寻找失踪恋人的故事。这部影片为他赢得了国际声誉，在鹿特丹电影节获奖，但也让他第一次与当局发生重大冲突。由于他未经官方同意就把影片送去参加电影节，结果被禁止拍片两年。

“Summer Palace,” the 2006 Tiananmen movie, earned him another five-year ban on filmmaking. He shot his next film, “Spring Fever,” in secret. A gay romance, it was released in 2009.

2006年以天安门事件为题材的影片《颐和园》让他再次被禁拍片五年。他的下一部作品《春风沉醉的夜晚》是在秘密状态下拍摄完成的。这部讲述同性恋情的影片于2009年上映。

In recent years, Mr. Lou has also made films marketed more at mass audiences, such as “Saturday Fiction,” a World War II spy story starring the Chinese superstar Gong Li. But even those films deploy techniques that may put off casual moviegoers, like jump cuts and subtle social commentary, said Sheldon Lu, a scholar of Chinese cinema at the University of California, Davis.

近年来，娄烨也拍摄了一些面向更大众市场的影片，例如由中国影星巩俐主演的二战间谍故事《兰心大剧院》。但加州大学戴维斯分校研究中国电影的学者鲁晓鹏表示，即便是在这些影片中，他也运用了可能让普通观众不太适应的手法，比如跳切剪辑和含蓄的社会评论。

娄烨执导的电影《苏州河》和《春风沉醉的夜晚》的海报。

Many of Mr. Lou’s classmates at the Beijing Film Academy are now among China’s most successful directors, in part because they have embraced mainstream or even nationalistic filmmaking, such as odes to the Chinese military, Professor Lu said. But Mr. Lou “holds onto his principles, his aesthetics.”

鲁晓鹏教授说，娄烨在北京电影学院的许多同学如今已成为中国最成功的导演，部分原因是他们拥抱了主流甚至民族主义的电影创作，例如歌颂中国军队。但娄烨“坚持自己的原则和美学”。

Indeed, after “Saturday Fiction” was widely promoted in Chinese state media, Mr. Lou again broached a Chinese government taboo: pandemic lockdowns, in “An Unfinished Film.” Released abroad in 2024, it is unavailable in China.

事实上，在《兰心大剧院》获得中国官方媒体广泛宣传之后，娄烨再次触碰了中国政府的禁忌：在《一部未完成的电影》中讨论疫情封控。该片于2024年在国外发行，目前在中国无法看到。

Despite his maverick image, Mr. Lou is a restrained presence. A self-proclaimed introvert, he has worked with the same actors for many of his films, in part, he joked, because he is uncomfortable meeting new people.

尽管有着特立独行的形象，娄烨本人却相当内敛。他自称是个内向的人，在许多电影中反复与同一批演员合作，他开玩笑说，部分原因是他不习惯结交新朋友。

But he sometimes shows flashes of childlike delight — or defiance. While Mr. Lou was making “The Shadow Play,” a film about corruption during China’s economic opening, Ms. Ma shot a behind-the-scenes documentary. In one scene, Mr. Lou grins widely after capturing a shot he likes and mimics the sound of an explosion.

但他偶尔也会流露出孩子气的喜悦——或者说叛逆。在娄烨拍摄讲述中国经济开放时期腐败问题的《风中有朵雨做的云》时，马英力拍摄了一部幕后纪录片。其中有一个镜头，娄烨在拍到一个满意的镜头后咧嘴大笑，还模仿爆炸的声音。

But later in the documentary, when censors demand extensive cuts to “The Shadow Play,” Mr. Lou declares that he would rather it never be released.

但在纪录片后面的一段里，当审查机构要求对《风中有朵雨做的云》进行大幅删减时，娄烨表示自己宁愿这部电影永远不要上映。

A member of his team fires back, “Do the rest of us eat?”

他团队的一名成员反驳道：“那我们其他人还吃不吃饭了？”

After two years of negotiations with officials, the movie was released in China in 2019. At the premiere, Mr. Lou tersely told the audience that he had left in signs of deletions and changes, as proof of the censors’ interference: “These are all things I want the audience to be aware of.”

经过与官员长达两年的协商，这部电影最终于2019年在中国的院线上映。在首映式上，娄烨简短地对观众说，他刻意保留了影片中的删减和修改痕迹，以此作为审查干预的证据：“这些都是我希望观众注意到的。”

Mr. Lou said “The Shadow Play” was probably the film on which he had made the most compromises. Still, he said it was worthwhile to give Chinese moviegoers a record of their collective experience, even if it could be only a “second-rate” version, as Mr. Lou once described it, because of censorship.

娄烨说，《风中有朵雨做的云》大概是他做出妥协最多的一部电影。但他仍然认为，让中国观众看到一份关于他们共同经历的记录是值得的，即使因为审查，这只能是一部——正如他曾经描述的那样——“二流版本”的作品。

His willingness to negotiate may also speak to his desire for audiences, both at home and overseas, to talk about something other than censorship.

他愿意与审查机构周旋，或许也说明了他希望国内外观众能关注审查之外的话题。

娄烨是少数几位似乎持续在边缘与主流之间游走的中国电影人之一。

“Everything gets simplified into political or nonpolitical,” he said. “It completely destroys the dialogue between the film and the public,” the right of audiences to interpret a film as they like.

“一切都被简化为政治或非政治，”他说。“这完全破坏了电影与公众之间的对话”，也剥夺了观众按照自己的喜好解读电影的权利。

“It strips away the film’s value as entertainment,” he said, “or as a cinematic language.”

“它剥离了电影作为娱乐的价值，”他说，“或者作为一种电影语言的价值。”

Mr. Lou’s new concert documentary is, essentially, all cinematic language. He said he had sought to let the band’s music, of which he is a longtime fan, speak for itself.

娄烨的新演唱会纪录片本质上几乎完全是电影语言的呈现。他说，自己希望让这支乐队的音乐——他多年来一直很喜欢——自己说话。

After the premiere in Beijing, Mr. Lou briefly took the stage. He urged the audience to be open to the diversity of movies that a director could make.

在北京首映式结束后，娄烨短暂登台发言。他呼吁观众对导演可以创作的多样化电影类型保持开放态度。

“There are many different types of movies,” he said. “So I hope people will pay attention.”

“电影有很多不同类型，”他说。“所以我希望大家能关注它们。”