Japan’s population fell by more than 3 million over the past five years, according to official statistics released on Friday, a drop that underscores the depths of the country’s accelerating demographic crisis.

根据周五发布的官方统计数据，过去五年日本人口减少了逾300万。这一降幅凸显出该国日益加深的人口危机之严峻。

The population stood at 123 million in 2025, according to preliminary census results, down from 126.1 million in 2020. It is the biggest decrease since the government began collecting census data in 1920.

根据人口普查的初步结果，日本2025年人口为1.23亿，低于2020年的1.261亿。这是自政府1920年开始进行人口普查以来的最大降幅。

Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 128 million, and it is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070. The country is now roughly the same size it was in 1989.

日本人口在2008年达到1.28亿的峰值，预计到2070年将降至8700万。目前日本的人口规模大致与1989年持平。

For decades, the Japanese authorities have tried to make up for the rapidly aging population by encouraging young people to have more children. But the effort has fallen short, leaving the country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates. For each new birth, there are two deaths.

几十年来，日本政府一直试图通过鼓励年轻人生育更多孩子来弥补人口迅速老龄化的影响。但这一努力收效甚微，导致日本成为全球出生率最低的国家之一。如今每出生一个新生儿，就有两人去世。

Japan is a harbinger of the demographic headwinds that will soon buffet other developed countries. The shrinking population is already constraining Japan's economic growth, putting pressures on its health care system and causing labor shortages.

日本的情况是即将冲击其他发达国家的人口逆风的信号。人口萎缩已经在制约日本的经济增长，给医疗体系带来压力，同时引发劳动力短缺。

The census data shows that the demographic crisis has now reached almost every part of Japan. All but two of the country’s 47 prefectures reported population decreases in 2025, and the rate of decline is accelerating.

人口普查数据显示，人口危机现在已波及日本几乎所有地区。2025年，日本47个都道府县中有45个报告人口减少，且人口下降速度正在加快。

Among the hardest hit areas were the northern prefectures of Akita and Aomori, where the population shrank by about 8 percent from 2020 to 2025. Those areas are home to some of Japan’s oldest residents, and young people have left at a rapid rate because of stagnant wages and harsh winters.

受冲击最为严重的地区包括北部的秋田县和青森县，两地人口在2020年至2025年间均减少了约8%。这些地区居住着日本最年长的人口群体之一，加之工资增长停滞和冬季严寒，年轻人正在加速流失。

日本大部分地区人口持续减少。

The Japanese countryside is hollowing out as the population ages and young people leave to seek jobs in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and other cities. In some rural areas, schools are being converted into nursing homes and community centers. Millions of homes are vacant; government offices and hospitals are downsizing; and train lines are shutting down.

随着人口老龄化，以及年轻人前往东京、大阪、名古屋等大城市寻找工作机会，日本农村正在逐渐空心化。在一些农村地区，学校被改建成养老院和社区活动中心。数百万套住宅空置；政府机关和医院规模缩减；铁路线路相继停运。

Opening Japan’s doors more widely to foreigners could help offset the declines. But the government has long taken a cautious approach to immigration, and nationalist politicians and commentators have gained influence recently with a “Japan First” agenda.

向外国人更广泛地开放国门可能有助于抵消人口下降的影响。但长期以来，日本政府对移民持谨慎态度，而奉行"日本优先"议程的民族主义政客和评论人士近年来影响力日增。

“Japan has now reached a level where this kind of decline is not reversible in the short- or medium-run,” said James Raymo, a professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies Japan. “It simply will not happen in the absence of mass immigration.”

研究日本问题的普林斯顿大学社会学教授詹姆斯·雷莫表示：“日本的人口下降已经到了短期和中期内无法逆转的程度。在没有大规模移民的情况下，这一局面根本不可能改变。”

There were a few bright spots in the census, including Okinawa, a subtropical chain of islands in the south, where the population grew slightly. Okinawa has Japan’s highest fertility rate, with women there giving birth to an average of 1.5 children in their lifetimes, compared with 1.1 nationally.

此次人口普查也有若干亮点，其中包括位于南部的亚热带岛链冲绳县——当地人口略有增长。冲绳拥有日本最高的生育率，当地女性平均一生生育1.5个孩子，而全国平均水平仅为1.1个。

Japan’s biggest cities are managing to stave off demographic decline — for now. The population of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, rose slightly to 37 million in 2025. The area now accounts for roughly 30 percent of Japan’s total population.

日本的大城市目前尚能勉强抵御人口下滑的压力。包括东京及其周边的神奈川县、埼玉县和千叶县在内的东京都市圈，2025年人口小幅上升至3700万。如今这一地区约占日本总人口的30%。

东京人口密度约为日本全国平均水平的20倍。数据来源：日本统计局

Tokyo, a vibrant hub of business, politics and culture, is now about 20 times denser than the rest of Japan — and one of the world’s densest cities. (Tokyo’s population rose more than 1 percent to 14.2 million in 2025.) The growth has been fueled in large part by an influx of students and young workers looking for jobs and educational opportunities.

东京是一个充满活力的商业、政治和文化中心，其人口密度现在约为日本其他地区的20倍，也是全球密度最大的城市之一。（2025年东京人口增长逾1%，达到1420万。）这一增长在很大程度上得益于大量寻求就业机会和教育资源的学生与年轻劳动者的涌入。

Japan’s woes are likely to worsen in the coming decades. It will probably become increasingly difficult to find workers to staff schools, hospitals, police departments and train stations. And the country could lack enough young people to pay the taxes necessary to support retirees.

未来几十年，日本的人口困境很可能进一步恶化。届时，为学校、医院、警察部门和火车站配备足够工作人员可能会越来越困难。而且，日本可能缺乏足够多的年轻人缴纳税收来支撑退休人口。

Professor Raymo said the Japanese government’s efforts to promote fertility had “not really moved the needle.” He said that ultimately Japan could provide lessons for other governments.

雷莫教授表示，日本政府推动提高生育率的努力“实际上并没有带来明显变化”。他说，日本的经历最终或许能为其他国家政府提供借鉴。

“More and more countries in Asia and elsewhere will experience similar levels of demographic decline,” he said. “Japan is just at the forefront and has been at it much longer.”

“亚洲及其他地区越来越多的国家将经历类似程度的人口萎缩，”他说，“日本只是走在了最前面，而且这种情况已经持续很久了。”

A Chinese company has been trying to develop artificial intelligence-powered technology that would enable authoritarian governments to not just monitor dissidents but also potentially predict who could become one in the future.

一家中国公司一直在尝试开发一项由人工智能驱动的技术，不仅能让威权政府监控异见人士，还能潜在地预测未来谁可能成为异见人士。

The work, which appears to be in the research stage, is ripped out of dystopian science fiction, offering a glimpse of a world in which an authoritarian state is able to move against its citizens before they begin any public dissent.

这项似乎还处于研究阶段的工作简直如同出自反乌托邦科幻小说，让我们得以一瞥一个威权国家在公民尚未公开表达异议之前就对其采取行动的世界。

The Chinese company, Geedge Networks, sells a commercial version of the Great Firewall, the surveillance and censorship software that China uses to control online activity. Those tools allow governments to monitor internet traffic and flag when someone tries to get around traditional internet censorship.

这家名为积至的中国公司销售商业版的“防火长城”——中国用于控制网络活动的监控和审查软件。这些工具使政府可以监控互联网流量，并在有人试图绕过传统互联网审查时发出警告。

But according to leaked company documents, the firm is working on new products that use artificial intelligence to examine location data and internet use to predict who could do or say something critical of the government, according to researchers at Vanderbilt University.

但范德比尔特大学的研究人员表示，根据泄露的公司文件，该公司正在开发使用人工智能审查位置数据和互联网使用情况的新产品，以预测哪些人可能会发表批评政府的言论，或是有所行动。

Such technology, if perfected, would give authoritarian governments a powerful tool to use against perceived enemies.

这种技术一旦完善，将为威权政府提供一个对付假想敌的强大工具。

The idea that an authoritarian government would use artificial intelligence to suppress dissent is troubling enough. But the use of A.I. to predict dissent well before a person has taken action has become a nightmare scenario, according to some involved in the industry.

威权政府利用人工智能镇压异见的想法已经足够令人不安。但一些业内人士表示，在个人采取行动之前就使用人工智能来预测异见倾向已经成为一种噩梦般的场景。

“This is what happens when mass surveillance meets A.I.,” said Brett J. Goldstein, the director of the Wicked Problems Lab at Vanderbilt’s Institute of National Security. “Without checks and balances, what China is doing to its own citizens is a preview of what becomes possible anywhere these tools go unchecked.”

“这就是大规模监控与人工智能结合时会发生的情况，”范德比尔特大学国家安全研究所棘手问题实验室主任布雷特·戈德斯坦说。“在没有制衡的情况下，中国对其本国公民所做的事情预示着，任何缺乏监管的地方都可能发生这样的事情。”

The Vanderbilt researchers found that Geedge, working with its government-supported research arm, MESA Lab, was developing technology that would generate profiles of Chinese citizens and then use A.I. to highlight who may pose a political risk.

范德比尔特大学的研究人员发现，积至正与其政府支持的研究分支MESA实验室合作，开发一种技术，能生成中国公民的个人档案，然后使用人工智能来筛选出可能构成政治风险的人员。

But the company’s progress appears to have been hampered by Biden-era export controls on U.S.-designed computer chips that power artificial intelligence. That suggests that U.S. restrictions may have slowed China’s development of the next generation of surveillance technology.

但拜登政府时期对驱动人工智能的美国设计计算机芯片实施的出口管制似乎阻碍了该公司的进展。这表明，美国的限制措施可能已经减缓了中国下一代监控技术的发展。

Documents from Geedge show that in 2024, when tough U.S. export controls on China were in place, the company and its lab struggled to find enough computing power for surveillance technology.

积至的文件显示，2024年，当美国对中国实施严厉的出口管制时，该公司及其实验室很难为监控技术找到足够的算力。

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋，这是一家总部位于美国的科技公司，设计全球最强大的人工智能芯片。

Brett V. Benson, a political science professor at Vanderbilt, said the documents refer to GPU limitations. GPUs — graphic processing units — are the chips that power A.I. models. As a result of the limitations, he said, the company began using older, less powerful A.I. models and chips.

范德比尔特大学政治学教授布雷特·本森表示，这些文件提到了 GPU（图形处理器）的限制。GPU是驱动人工智能模型的芯片。他说，由于这些限制，该公司开始使用较旧、性能较低的人工智能模型和芯片。

Today, Geedge has access to enough graphic processing units for its current products, according to U.S. officials. But to carry out the most ambitious version of its predictive technology, the company would probably need more advanced chips than China can acquire, the officials said.

美国官员表示，如今，积至可以获得足够的图形处理器用于其当前的产品。但官员们指出，要实现其最具野心的预测技术版本，该公司可能需要比中国所能获得的更先进芯片。

Former Biden administration officials said intelligence showed that their policies restricting China from high-end, U.S.-designed chips had worked at keeping the U.S. artificial intelligence edge and at slowing the development of other Chinese technology.

前拜登政府官员表示，情报显示，他们限制中国获取美国设计的高端芯片的政策在保持美国人工智能优势和减缓中国其他技术发展方面发挥了作用。

But whether U.S. export controls will slow China’s development of more oppressive uses of artificial intelligence is an open question.

但美国的出口管制是否会减缓中国开发更具压迫性的人工智能应用仍是一个悬而未决的问题。

The Trump administration has weakened some of the Biden-era export controls and kept restrictions on the most advanced processors from Nvidia, the U.S. company that designs the world’s most powerful artificial intelligence chips. During President Trump’s recent trip to Beijing, U.S. officials said that China would have access to a more advanced version of the Nvidia chips.

特朗普政府放宽了拜登时代的一些出口管制，保留了对英伟达最先进处理器的限制。英伟达是设计全球最强大人工智能芯片的美国公司。在特朗普总统最近的北京之行中，美国官员表示，中国将可以获得更先进版本的英伟达芯片。

But China is trying to wean its artificial intelligence companies off U.S.-designed chips, so that export controls can no longer constrain their ambitions.

但中国正试图让其人工智能公司摆脱对美国设计芯片的依赖，以便出口管制无法再束缚它们的雄心。

在特朗普总统最近访问北京期间，美国官员表示，中国将能够获得英伟达芯片的更先进版本。

Profiling Future Critics

为未来的批评者建立档案

The new information was gleaned from a trove of data, including 100,000 documents from Geedge that were originally posted last September. Working with the documents, Wired and other publications have outlined how Geedge exported its network security software to countries including Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar and Pakistan, enabling them to conduct mass surveillance on mobile networks.

这些新信息是从大量数据中收集的，其中包括最初在去年9月发布的10万份积至文件。通过研究这些文件，《连线》(Wired)和其他出版物概述了积至如何将其网络安全软件出口到埃塞俄比亚、哈萨克斯坦、缅甸和巴基斯坦等国家，使这些国家能够对移动网络进行大规模监控。

Vanderbilt researchers scouring the documents focused not on the technology Geedge was selling, but the next generation of technology it was trying to develop, as well as the constraints that could prevent it from putting the strategy into effect.

范德比尔特大学的研究人员在梳理这些文件时，关注的重点并非积至正在销售的技术，而是它试图开发的下一代技术，以及可能阻碍其实施战略的限制因素。

In the first months of 2024, according to the Geedge documents, the company’s researchers were working to develop behavioral profiles of people based on telecommunications, social media and location data. A.I. models were used to classify people and to “detect harmful information,” often a euphemism used by the Chinese Community Party to identify political dissent or other material the government wants suppressed.

根据积至的文件，在2024年的前几个月，该公司的研究人员致力于根据电信、社交媒体和位置数据开发人们的行为档案。人工智能模型被用来对人群进行分类，并“检测有害信息”——这是一种委婉说法，通常是指中国共产党用来识别政治异见或其他政府希望压制的材料。

In one meeting on Feb. 5, 2024, researchers discussed how to build profiles of people to “identify their intent” and “achieve discovery of harmful information,” according to minutes of the meeting.

根据2024年2月5日某次会议的纪要，研究人员讨论了如何建立人员档案以“识别其意图”并“实现对有害信息的发现”。

The Geedge researchers appeared to be developing tools to use artificial intelligence to predict who could become critics of the Chinese government, based on the data patterns the company’s surveillance technology collected.

积至的研究人员似乎正在开发一种工具，利用人工智能根据该公司监控技术收集的数据模式，预测哪些人可能会成为中国政府的批评者。

中科天玑致力于开发一款基于人工智能的软件，用于传播针对性的中国宣传内容。

“Geedge’s research team was doing more than just documenting behavioral patterns. They were trying to predict what citizens might do next and with whom,” Mr. Benson said. “Those stockpiles of data on ordinary materials are raw materials for generating profiles that determine who you are and what you will do next.”

“积至的研究团队所做的不只是记录行为模式。他们还试图预测公民接下来可能会做什么，以及和谁一起做，”本森说。“那些关于普通材料的庞大数据储备，是生成个人档案的原材料，这些档案可以决定你是什么样的人，以及你下一步会做什么。”

Geedge did not respond to a request for comment.

积至没有回应置评请求。

The documents suggest that the company’s team was working to link the physical movements with other online activity, including what movies people watched and what books they read, according to the Vanderbilt researchers.

范德比尔特大学的研究人员表示，这些文件表明，该公司的团队正致力于将物理移动轨迹与其他网络活动联系起来，包括人们看什么电影和读什么书。

Geedge’s research was in some ways similar to work by another Chinese company with ties to the state, GoLaxy. Last year, Vanderbilt and The New York Times outlined GoLaxy’s efforts to develop artificial intelligence-powered software that would push targeted propaganda — themes supported by the Chinese government and against views that Beijing opposed.

积至的研究在某些方面与另一家与政府有联系的中国公司中科天玑的工作相似。去年，范德比尔特大学和《纽约时报》概述了中科天玑开发人工智能驱动软件的努力，该软件将推送定向宣传，这些宣传主题得到中国政府的支持，并且反驳北京所反对的观点。

In some ways, Geedge’s work also evokes the 2002 movie “Minority Report,” in which the government predicts who may commit a crime, and a specialized police unit moves to arrest people before a violation occurs. While seen as infallible, the “precogs” who predict the future in the movie wrongly accuse the main character, played by the actor Tom Cruise, of a murder.

在某些方面，积至的工作也让人想起2002年的电影《少数派报告》(Minority Report)，在电影中，政府能预测谁可能会犯罪，一个专门的警察部队会在违法行为发生前采取行动逮捕这些人。尽管被视为绝无差错，但电影中预测未来的“先知”却错误地指控了由演员汤姆·克鲁斯扮演的主角涉嫌谋杀。

China has been pursuing predictive surveillance technology for years. But as the Geedge documents show, artificial intelligence models have sped the development of such tools.

中国多年来一直在追求预测性监控技术。但正如积至的文件所示，人工智能模型加速了此类工具的开发。

And Geedge shows how predictive policing technology could soon become a Chinese export.

而且积至展示了预测性警务技术可能很快成为中国出口产品的趋势。

DeepSeek的手机端人工智能助手。

Fine-Tuning a Surveillance State

完善监控国家体系

While the documents do not cover recent months, there is no evidence that Geedge has finalized or deployed the predictive technology, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive assessments.

尽管这些文件没有涵盖最近几个月的情况，但据要求匿名讨论敏感评估的美国官员称，没有证据表明积至已经定型或部署了这种预测技术。

But officials acknowledged that Chinese firms were working toward such technology to fine-tune their surveillance state. And China’s Public Security Bureaus have been racing to use DeepSeek, the country’s leading artificial intelligence model, to pursue other predictive policing technology, according to experts and government officials.

但官员们承认，中国企业正在努力开发这种技术，以完善其监控国家体系。据专家和政府官员透露，中国的公安局也一直在竞相使用该国领先的人工智能模型DeepSeek，开发其他预测性警务技术。

U.S. officials said that Geedge and other Chinese surveillance companies probably have enough computing power for their current-generation tools.

美国官员表示，积至和其他中国监控公司可能拥有足够的算力来支持其当前一代的工具。

But predictive tools, particularly if the company eventually incorporates intercepted phone calls or surveillance video, could come up against constraints on computing power.

但预测性工具——尤其是如果该公司最终将截获的电话通话或监控视频整合进来——可能会面临算力上的限制。

If the company tried to tap into those kinds of surveillance streams to predict security threats, it would more quickly come up against the limits of China’s current computing power, American officials said.

美国官员表示，如果该公司试图利用这类监控数据流来预测安全威胁，将更快地触及中国当前算力的极限。

“Chinese security services are dealing with an overload of data,” said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior fellow at the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. “They have too much information at once. The real value of artificial intelligence is that they can triage the data and find the threats. But their ability to scale that depends on their access to compute. This is what makes export controls so important.”

“中国安全部门正面临数据过载的问题，”加州大学全球冲突与合作研究所高级研究员吉米·古德里奇说。“他们同时拥有太多的信息。人工智能的真正价值在于他们可以对数据进行分类并发现威胁。但他们扩大这种能力取决于他们获得算力的途径。这就是出口管制如此重要的原因。”

Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, has said China’s military doesn’t rely on chips from his California-based company. But an analysis of six years of Chinese records shows that China’s military has been openly seeking Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips since 2019.

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋曾表示，中国军方并不依赖这家加州企业的芯片。但一份针对六年以来中国记录的分析显示，中国军方自2019年以来一直在公开寻求英伟达的人工智能芯片。

Chinese records reviewed by Wirescreen, a software platform that provides information about Chinese companies, showed that the People’s Liberation Army has stepped up its efforts to acquire artificial intelligence chips, even after the U.S. government restricted semiconductor sales to foreign adversaries including China.

提供中国企业信息的软件平台Wirescreen查阅的中国记录显示，即便在美国政府限制向包括中国在内的外国对手出售半导体之后，中国人民解放军仍在加大力度获取人工智能芯片。

The records document instances when suppliers agreed to deliver those chips under the military’s terms, but they do not document the final delivery. Nevertheless, John Costello, the Wirescreen analyst who wrote the report, said the data showed “directly and irrefutably” that U.S. technology was equipping the Chinese military.

这些记录记载了供应商同意按军方条件交付这些芯片的情况，但并未记录最终是否交付完成。尽管如此，撰写报告的Wirescreen分析师约翰·科斯特洛表示，这些数据“直接且无可辩驳地”表明，美国技术正在装备中国军队。

“What number of advanced Nvidia chips in P.L.A. hands does the company consider acceptable?” he asked.

“英伟达认为解放军手中掌握多少先进芯片是可以接受的？”他问道。

The report draws on a larger pool of data than previously examined and shows how China adapted to and tried to circumvent U.S. technology restrictions in recent years.

该报告利用了比以往更为庞大的数据池，揭示了中国近年来如何应对并试图绕过美国的技术限制。

Wirescreen examined 3,800 procurement records related to high-end chips and computing. It discovered more than 500 instances when various units of the Chinese military sought Nvidia chips either by name or technical specification.

Wirescreen查阅了3800份与高端芯片和计算设备相关的采购记录，发现了500多起中国军方不同单位直接点名或按技术规格寻求英伟达芯片的情况。

The technology was sought by nearly every branch of the Chinese military, including units that work on nuclear explosive simulations, carry out offensive cyberattacks and plan war games.

中国军方几乎所有部门都在寻求获得英伟达芯片，包括从事核爆炸模拟、实施进攻性网络攻击和规划战争推演的单位。

The report was shared with the Trump administration and Congress, which are debating the future of Nvidia sales to China. In December, President Trump, who has become a close ally of Mr. Huang, approved the sale of Nvidia’s second-best chip to China, while demanding a cut of that revenue for the government. But Republican lawmakers who worry that advanced chips could help China’s military have introduced legislation that would strip the White House of sole responsibility for A.I. chip exports.

该报告已提交给特朗普政府和国会，后者正在就英伟达对华销售的未来展开争论。去年12月，已与黄仁勋建立密切关系的特朗普总统批准向中国出售英伟达性能排名第二的芯片，同时要求政府从相关收入中分成。但担心先进芯片可能助力中国军方的共和党议员已提出立法，希望取消白宫在人工智能芯片出口问题上的完全决定权。

Mr. Huang has fought chip restrictions and urged lawmakers to allow Nvidia to sell to China. He has said that blocking Nvidia from China, the world’s largest semiconductor market, would surrender the market to rival Chinese products that can now do much of what Nvidia chips do. He has also dismissed worries about China’s military use of the chips as overblown.

黄仁勋一直反对芯片出口限制，并敦促立法者允许英伟达对华销售。他表示，如果将英伟达排除在中国这个全球最大的半导体市场之外，就等于把市场拱手让给中国竞争对手，而这些产品如今已能完成英伟达芯片所能实现的大部分功能。他还认为，对中国军方使用这些芯片的担忧被夸大了。

Advanced A.I. systems typically run on networks of 100,000 chips or more, said John Rizzo, a spokesman for Nvidia. In the Wirescreen analysis, the numbers of chips requested by the Chinese military fell considerably short of that, which suggests Beijing is relying at least somewhat on domestic chip makers like Huawei as the country seeks to be technologically self-reliant.

英伟达发言人约翰·里佐表示，先进的人工智能系统通常在10万颗甚至更多芯片组成的网络上运行。而在Wirescreen的分析中，中国军方需求的芯片数量远远低于这个数字，这表明随着中国追求技术自主，北京方面至少在一定程度上正依赖华为等国内的芯片制造商。

Procurement documents have also shown the Chinese military specifically seeking out Huawei chips, as Chinese technology improves, Mr. Rizzo said. He called the idea that China’s military was relying on a small number of Nvidia chips “silly” and “untrue.”

里佐表示，采购文件同样显示，中国军方正在明确采购华为芯片，这与中国技术不断进步的趋势相吻合。他称中国军方离不开一定数量英伟达芯片的说法“荒谬”且“不真实”。

“China has more than enough domestic chips for all of its military applications, with millions to spare,” Mr. Rizzo said in a statement. “Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology.”

“中国拥有足够的国产芯片用于其所有军事应用，且有数百万颗的富余，”里佐在声明中表示。“就像美国军方使用中国技术会显得荒唐一样，中国军方依赖美国技术也是没有道理的。”

But public tender documents stretching from 2019 to 2025 show that the Chinese military continued to seek out Nvidia chips for more advanced computing applications. They include Nvidia’s A100, A800, H100 and H800 chips, both before and after those chips were controlled by the U.S. government.

然而，2019年至2025年的公开招标文件显示，中国军方仍持续寻求英伟达芯片，用于更高级的计算应用。其中包括英伟达的A100、A800、H100和H800等型号，而且这些采购既出现在美国政府实施出口管制之前，也出现在管制之后。

Administration officials and congressional staff were briefed last week on the report’s findings.

上周，美国政府官员和国会工作人员已听取了这份报告的简报。

Representative John Moolenaar of Michigan, the Republican chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, said the report showed how China was trying “to smuggle and steal American technology for military purposes.”

密歇根州共和党众议员、众议院中国问题特设委员会主席约翰·穆勒纳尔表示，该报告显示了中国如何试图“走私和窃取美国技术用于军事目的”。

Mr. Moolenaar, who recently introduced a bill to restrict China’s access to American technology, said this was why the United States needed export controls “to protect our advantage in the A.I. race and make sure we are not arming China.”

穆莱纳尔近期提出了一项限制中国获取美国技术的法案，他表示，这正是美国需要出口管制的原因——“保护我们在人工智能竞赛中的优势，并确保我们不会武装中国”。

Congress is weighing several rules that would restrict the foreign sale of advanced technology. One introduced last year, the A.I. OVERWATCH Act, would require the Commerce Department to certify that A.I. chips would not be used to help adversaries’ militaries and would give Congress the power to block chip exports.

国会目前正在审议多项限制先进技术出口的规定。其中一项是去年提出的《人工智能监管法案》，它要求商务部证明人工智能芯片不会被用于帮助对手国家的军队，并赋予国会阻止芯片出口的权力。

In January, the House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced the bill in a 42-to-2 vote. It still needs to clear the full House and Senate, and it’s not clear whether the president would sign it.

今年1月，众议院外交事务委员会以42票对两票通过了该法案。该法案仍需获得众议院和参议院全体通过，总统是否会签署也尚不明朗。

Industry experts and government officials have debated whether U.S. technology controls have held back China’s technological progress or are backfiring by encouraging the Chinese government to develop domestic alternatives.

行业专家和政府官员一直在争论：美国的技术管制究竟是在拖慢中国技术进步，还是正在适得其反，促使中国政府加速发展国产替代方案

Trump officials rolled back global restrictions on Nvidia chip sales issued at the end of the Biden administration, saying they were stifling U.S. technology firms. But the move made it possible for subsidiaries of Chinese companies located outside of China to legally purchase Nvidia’s most advanced chips, said Chris McGuire, a former State Department official.

特朗普政府官员撤销了拜登政府末期出台的对英伟达芯片销售的全球限制，称这些措施正在扼杀美国科技企业。但前国务院官员克里斯·麦奎尔表示，此举使得位于中国境外的中国企业子公司得以合法购买英伟达最先进的芯片。

On Sunday, the Trump administration issued a clarification of its rules saying that companies needed to obtain a license from the U.S. government to sell controlled chips to Chinese companies anywhere in the world.

周日，特朗普政府发布了对相关规则的澄清说明，指出企业若要向全球任何地方的中国公司出售受管制芯片，都必须获得美国政府许可。

China has also continued to develop its domestic technology. Last week, Huawei unveiled a breakthrough in its chip development that it said would allow it to make cutting-edge chips within five years. The company is expected to make millions of chips this year, according to SemiAnalysis, a semiconductor research firm.

与此同时，中国也在持续推进本土技术研发。上周，华为宣布在芯片开发方面取得突破，称其将在五年内具备生产最先进芯片的能力。据半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis预测，华为今年的芯片产量预计将达数百万颗。

China has regulations that encourage its military to use home-grown technology products. Procurement records show that the military has awarded contracts to Chinese companies that rely on Huawei’s A.I. chips, which were a key selling point, according to an analysis by the Jamestown Foundation, a policy group focused on China.

中国出台了鼓励军队使用国产技术产品的相关规定。中国问题研究机构詹姆斯敦基金会的分析显示，采购记录表明，军队已将合同授予依托华为人工智能芯片的中国企业，而华为芯片正是关键卖点之一。

Mr. Costello said Wirescreen’s analysis showed that U.S. restrictions had slowed China’s technology purchases, though the military ultimately developed strategies to bypass them.

科斯特洛表示，Wirescreen的分析表明，美国限制措施确实减缓了中国技术采购的速度，但军方最终还是制定出了绕过限制的策略。

“It introduces a lot of friction, makes them compromise, slows them down,” he said.

“这些限制制造了大量摩擦，迫使他们妥协，也拖慢了他们的速度，”他说。

For example, he said, the Jiangnan Institute of Computing Technology, one of the principal research institutes of China’s Cyberspace Force, appeared to have more trouble obtaining chips after the United States imposed export controls in 2022 and 2023. Some bids that the institute put out for American A.I. technology were not completed, and the group had to relist them in another form.

例如，他表示，中国网络空间部队的重要研究机构之一——江南计算技术研究所在美国于2022年和2023年实施出口管制后，获取芯片变得更加困难。该研究所发布的一些采购美国人工智能技术的招标未能完成，后来不得不以其他形式重新发布。

China’s Cyberspace Force, which is responsible for cyberwarfare, reconnaissance and domestic surveillance, was the largest single buyer among China’s military service branches of American A.I. technology in the documents, and the Jiangnan Institute was added to a trade blacklist in 2019 for developing supercomputers for the Chinese military.

根据这些文件，负责网络战、侦察和国内监控的中国网络空间部队是中国军方各单位中最大的美国人工智能技术买家。而江南计算技术研究所早在2019年就因开发服务于中国军方的超级计算机而被列入贸易黑名单。

The Chinese military and firms associated with it adapted to the U.S. export controls by finding new ways to acquire the technology, Mr. Costello said. The military reduced some of its technical requirements and used new channels to obtain chips that obfuscated its role. That included bringing in new types of companies to buy the chips, which ranged from established technology firms to shell companies. It took the military about a year to adapt, Mr. Costello said.

科斯特洛表示，中国军方及其相关企业通过寻找新的获取渠道来适应美国出口管制。军方降低了一部分技术要求，并借助新渠道以模糊其自身角色的方式获取芯片，包括引入从成熟科技公司到空壳公司等各类新型采购主体。科斯特洛表示，军方大约花了一年时间完成这种适应。

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy said China had consistently advocated cooperation with the United States and opposed the weaponization of technological and economic issues.

中国驻美大使馆发言人表示，中国一贯主张与美国开展合作，反对将技术和经济问题武器化。

The procurement records provided some clues as to how Nvidia’s technology was used. In January 2024, a Beijing-based division of the military’s cybersecurity unit sought four A.I. servers equipped with Nvidia’s A100 chips. It specified that the equipment needed to support a tool called hashcat, which is used for password cracking.

采购记录为英伟达技术的用途提供了若干线索。2024年1月，中国军方的网络安全部队驻北京的一个下属部门寻求采购四台搭载英伟达A100芯片的人工智能服务器，并明确要求相关设备须支持一款名为"hashcat"的工具——该工具用于密码破解。

Mr. Costello said a military unit using A.I. servers to run hashcat software would most likely be using the chips to make it easier to break into password-protected accounts, including potentially training an A.I. system to do hacking.

科斯特洛表示，一个军事单位使用人工智能服务器运行hashcat软件，很可能是在利用这些芯片更容易地攻破受密码保护的账户，甚至可能训练一个人工智能系统执行黑客攻击。

It’s not clear if some military entities may have been acquiring Nvidia chips to try to break them down and understand their vulnerabilities or to replicate the technology.

目前尚不清楚某些军方实体获取英伟达芯片是为了拆解分析其漏洞，还是为了复制该技术。

The report also documents that research institutes linked to the Chinese military increasingly gained remote access to chips by renting them from commercial data centers.

报告还显示，与中国军方有关联的研究机构越来越多地通过租用商业数据中心算力的方式远程获得芯片使用权。

The Wirescreen research builds on an earlier analysis that found that China’s military was buying American chips to support its push into A.I.

Wirescreen的研究建立在此前一项分析的基础之上——该分析发现，中国军方正在采购美国芯片，以支持其推进人工智能发展的计划。

Senator Jim Banks, a Republican from Indiana who is supporting the A.I. OVERWATCH Act, called the Chinese military’s access to U.S. chips a “national security crisis.”

支持《人工智能监管法案》的印第安纳州共和党参议员吉姆·班克斯将中国军方获取美国芯片的问题称为“国家安全危机”。

“China is doing everything it can to weaponize A.I. against the U.S. military,” he said. “Giving them access to America’s best A.I. chips will only quicken their efforts.”

“中国正在尽一切努力将人工智能武器化，以对抗美国军队，”他说。“让他们获得美国最先进的人工智能芯片，只会加快他们的步伐。”

During his first term, President Trump sharply criticized the wars launched by his predecessors as a waste of American resources, and he promised not to get involved in any long military entanglements.

在其第一个总统任期内，特朗普曾强烈批评前任们发动的战争是在浪费美国的资源，并承诺不卷入任何长期的军事纠葛。

“Great nations do not fight endless wars,” Mr. Trump said in 2019 during his State of the Union speech.

他在2019年的国情咨文演讲中曾表示：“伟大的国家不打无休止的战争。”

As he campaigned for a second term, Mr. Trump even described himself as “the candidate of peace.”

在为第二任期竞选期间，特朗普甚至将自己形容为“和平的候选人”。

But the reality has been quite different.

然而，现实却截然不同。

Since Mr. Trump’s return to office, the United States has been involved in nearly a dozen military operations around the world, including the conflict against Iran and a raid that resulted in the arrest of Venezuela’s president.

自特朗普重返白宫以来，美国已参与了全球十几项军事行动，其中包括针对伊朗的冲突，以及一场导致委内瑞拉总统被捕的突袭行动。

Here’s a look.

以下是具体回顾。

February 2025

2025年2月

Somalia

索马里

去年，索马里国民军在摩加迪沙北部的一个训练设施内。对圣战分子卷土重来的担忧正在加剧。

On Feb. 1, 2025, soon after his inauguration, Mr. Trump ordered a series of airstrikes targeting Islamic State operatives and recruits in northern Somalia. His administration hailed it as the beginning of ramped-up counterterrorism operations in the Horn of Africa.

2025年2月1日，在就职后不久，特朗普下令进行了一系列空袭，目标是索马里北部的“伊斯兰国”行动人员和新兵。他的政府称赞这是在非洲之角加大反恐行动力度的开始。

In 2025, the U.S. military conducted more than 100 strikes against ISIS and Al Shabab, an extremist group affiliated with Al Qaeda.

2025年，美国军队针对“伊斯兰国”和“青年党”——一个隶属于基地组织的极端组织——实施了100多次打击。

Current situation: The United States has continued to strike the groups this year.

现状：美国今年仍在对这些组织实施打击。

March 2025

2025年3月

Iraq

伊拉克

2023年从伊拉克陆军直升机上看到的巴格达。

In a joint operation on March 13, 2025, the United States and Iraq killed a senior Islamic State leader believed to be the head of the group in Iraq and Syria.

在2025年3月13日的一次联合行动中，美国和伊拉克击毙了一名“伊斯兰国”高级领导人，据信此人是该组织在伊拉克和叙利亚的负责人。

Current situation: The Islamic State still operates in Iraq but has not controlled territory for several years.

现状：“伊斯兰国”仍在伊拉克活动，但已有数年未控制任何领土。

March 2025

2025年3月

Yemen

也门

2025年3月，也门萨阿德市一家医院，在美军空袭中受伤的男子。

In March 2025, the U.S. military began Operation Rough Rider against the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen.

2025年3月，美国军队对也门境内受伊朗支持的胡塞武装发起了“粗鲁骑手行动”。

The U.S. strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone. The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier.

仅在第一个月，美国的武器和弹药消耗就达到了约10亿美元。胡塞武装击落了数架美国MQ-9“死神”无人机，并继续向红海的军舰开火，其中包括一艘美国航空母舰。

Then two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.

随后，美国旗舰航空母舰的两架价值6700万美元的F/A-18“超级大黄蜂”战斗机受命执行打击胡塞的任务，却意外从航母上坠入海中。

On May 5, 2025, the White House ordered U.S. Central Command to “pause” offensive operations. Mr. Trump said he had reached an agreement with the Houthis.

2025年5月5日，白宫命令美国中央司令部“暂停”进攻。特朗普表示，他已与胡塞武装达成协议。

“We hit them very hard and they had a great ability to withstand punishment,” Mr. Trump said. “You could say there was a lot of bravery there.” He added that “they gave us their word that they wouldn’t be shooting at ships anymore, and we honor that.”

“我们对他们进行了沉重打击，而他们承受惩罚的能力惊人，”特朗普说。“你可以说这其中有很大的勇气。”他补充道，“他们向我们保证，不会再向船只开火了，我们尊重这一点。”

Current situation: The Houthis have attacked fewer ships transiting the Red Sea, but many commercial vessels continue to steer clear.

现状：胡塞武装袭击过境红海船只的次数有所减少，但许多商船仍继续绕道行驶。

June 2025

2025年6月

Iran

伊朗

卫星图像显示2025年6月美军空袭后的伊朗福尔多核浓缩设施。

After several days of Israeli strikes on Iran, Mr. Trump launched Operation Midnight Hammer on June 22, deploying B-2 stealth bombers to drop bunker-buster bombs on the nuclear facilities Fordo and Natanz, while a submarine launched strikes at the nuclear facility at Isfahan.

在以色列对伊朗进行数日袭击之后，特朗普于6月22日发起了“子夜重锤行动”，出动B-2隐形轰炸机对福尔多和纳坦兹的核设施投下钻地弹，同时一艘潜艇对伊斯法罕的核设施发动了袭击。

Mr. Trump said the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.

特朗普表示，这些袭击“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核浓缩设施。

Current situation: The Trump administration and Iran remain locked in a dispute over Iran’s refusal to give up its nuclear program.

现状：由于伊朗拒绝放弃其核计划，特朗普政府与伊朗仍陷入争端之中。

September 2025

2025年9月

Venezuela

委内瑞拉

On Sept. 2, the U.S. military began attacking boats in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific that the Trump administration says were smuggling drugs.

9月2日，美国军队开始对加勒比海和东太平洋的船只发起攻击，特朗普政府称这些船只涉嫌走私毒品。

So far 59 boats have been bombed, killing more than 200 people. Legal specialists say the strikes are illegal extrajudicial killings.

到目前为止，已有59艘船只遭到轰炸，造成200多人死亡。法律专家表示，这些袭击属于非法的法外处决。

Current situation: The Trump administration has not provided evidence that the boats that have been attacked were involved in drug smuggling. But the strikes continue.

现状：特朗普政府尚未提供证据证明遭到袭击的船只参与了毒品走私。但打击仍在继续。

December 2025

2025年12月

Syria

叙利亚

美国军人在特拉华州多佛空军基地转移两名在叙利亚阵亡的艾奥瓦州国民警卫队员的遗体。

The United States carried out major airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria on Dec. 19 to avenge the deaths of two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter killed in an ISIS attack a week earlier.

12月19日，美国对叙利亚境内的“伊斯兰国”实施了大规模空袭，以报复一周前在“伊斯兰国”袭击中丧生的两名美国陆军士兵和一名平民译员。

American fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery fired more than 100 munitions at over 70 suspected Islamic State targets across central Syria. The Pentagon said Jordanian warplanes assisted in the operation.

美国的战斗机、攻击直升机和火炮向叙利亚中部的70多个涉嫌“伊斯兰国”的目标发射了100多枚弹药。五角大楼表示，约旦战机协助了此次行动。

The next month, in January, the U.S. military launched additional attacks on ISIS targets in Syria.

接下来的一个月，即1月份，美国军队对叙利亚境内的“伊斯兰国”目标实施了更多打击。

Current situation: The United States completed a handover of its major military bases in Syria in April, winding down a more than decade-long presence in the country. U.S. military officials say American troops will train, advise and assist some Syrian security forces in combating ISIS, as the U.S. relationship with Syria changes after the ouster of the country’s longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in late 2024.

现状：美国已于4月完成了对叙利亚境内主要军事基地的交接，结束了在该国长达十多年的军事存在。美国军事官员表示，随着叙利亚长期独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德在2024年底被推翻后美国与叙利亚关系发生变化，美军将对部分叙利亚安全部队进行培训、指导和协助，以打击“伊斯兰国”。

December 2025

2025年12月

Nigeria

尼日利亚

去年12月美军在尼日利亚奥法市实施空袭后的景象。

On Christmas Day 2025, the United States launched strikes in northwestern Nigeria against Islamic State militants, who Mr. Trump asserted had been slaughtering Christians.

在2025年圣诞节当天，美国在尼日利亚西北部对“伊斯兰国”武装分子发动了袭击，特朗普断言这些武装分子一直在屠杀基督徒。

Nigerian officials and military experts say the Islamic State in Nigeria has killed thousands of Muslims as well.

尼日利亚官员和军事专家表示，“伊斯兰国”在尼日利亚还杀害了成千上万的穆斯林。

Current situation: This fight continues.

现状：这场战斗仍在继续。

January 2026

2026年1月

Venezuela

委内瑞拉

委内瑞拉前总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗于1月被抓捕并带往美国。

On Jan. 3, U.S. Special Operations troops launched a raid in Venezuela’s capital targeting President Nicolás Maduro. They killed dozens of Mr. Maduro’s guards and extracted the Venezuelan leader and his wife, transporting them to New York to face charges of narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine.

1月3日，美国特种部队在委内瑞拉首都发起突袭，目标直指总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。他们击毙了马杜罗的数十名卫兵，将这位委内瑞拉领导人及其妻子抓获并押解至纽约，以面对毒品恐怖主义和密谋进口可卡因的指控。

Both pleaded not guilty.

两人均辩称无罪。

Current situation: The trial is months, possibly years, away. Mr. Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is now president.

现状：距离开庭审理还有数月、甚至数年的时间。马杜罗的副总统德尔茜·罗德里格斯现任总统。

February 2026

2026年2月

Iran

伊朗

4月，伊朗政府支持者在德黑兰举行示威活动。

On Feb. 28, U.S. and Israeli forces launched a new war against Iran that has killed hundreds of people (Iran says more than 2,000), including many high-ranking Iranian officials, the country’s supreme leader and 13 U.S. troops.

2月28日，美军和以色列军队对伊朗发动了新一轮战争，已导致数百人死亡（伊朗称超过2000人），其中包括许多伊朗高级官员、该国最高领袖以及13名美军士兵。

The war, which the Pentagon calls Operation Epic Fury, has shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, sending gas prices around the world soaring.

这场被五角大楼称为“史诗愤怒行动”的战争导致霍尔木兹海峡关闭，引发全球油价暴涨。

Iran retaliated by launching drones and ballistic missiles at Israel and at U.S. allies and American bases in the Middle East, setting off a regional conflict.

伊朗实施了报复，向以色列、美国的盟友以及美国在中东的基地发射了无人机和弹道导弹，引发了地区冲突。

Current situation: Mr. Trump declared a cease-fire in April, launching sporadic negotiations. The United States is enforcing a naval blockade to prevent Iran from getting its oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, while the threat of Iranian fire has shuttered commercial shipping through the narrow waterway.

现状：特朗普于4月宣布停火，并展开了零星的谈判。美国正在实施海上封锁，以阻止伊朗将石油运出霍尔木兹海峡，而伊朗火力的威胁已导致商业航运无法通过这一狭窄的水道。

In recent days, the two sides have exchanged strikes, threatening the fragile truce.

近日来，双方互相进行了袭击，威胁到了脆弱的停战状态。

May 2026

2026年5月

Nigeria

尼日利亚

人们聚集在尼日利亚西北部村庄贾博·加林·迈加里的一处美军空袭现场。

This month, Mr. Trump authorized a joint U.S.-Nigerian commando raid that killed Abu Bilal al-Minuki, a high-ranking ISIS leader. Days later, the United States launched airstrikes targeting ISIS fighters in the country.

本月，特朗普批准了一次美尼联合突击队突袭，击毙了“伊斯兰国”高级领导人阿布·比拉勒·阿尔-米努基。几天后，美国发动空袭，目标直指该国境内的“伊斯兰国”武装分子。

Current situation: Scores of militants have been killed in the recent military actions, according to U.S. and Nigerian estimates. The New York Times could not verify whether civilians were among the dead.

现状：根据美国和尼日利亚的估计，在最近的军事行动中已有数十名武装分子被击毙。《纽约时报》无法核实死者中是否包含平民。

May 2026

2026年5月

Cuba

古巴

菲德尔·卡斯特罗的肖像挂在古巴圣地亚哥的一间办公室里。

The aircraft carrier Nimitz and its escort warships arrived in the southern Caribbean Sea this month, on the same day the Justice Department announced charges against Raúl Castro, Cuba’s former president.

尼米兹号航空母舰及其护航军舰于本月抵达加勒比海南部，就在同一天，司法部宣布了对古巴前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗的指控。

Current situation: Keep an eye out.

现状：保持关注。

One afternoon in October 2024, Li Ying was lying in bed, scrolling through X, when he got a notification on his phone from the peephole security camera on his apartment door in Turin, Italy.

2024年10月的一个下午，李颖正躺在床上刷着X，这时他位于意大利都灵公寓门上的猫眼监控摄像头向他的手机发来了通知。

Two men were lingering in the hallway.

两名男子正在走廊里徘徊。

He got up quietly, went to the door and watched them through the camera feed on his phone.

他悄悄站起身，走到门前，通过手机上的摄像头画面观察他们。

For two years, ever since he turned his X account into one of the most influential Chinese-language sources for uncensored news and dissent, Mr. Li had received threats of physical harm. Should those threats ever come to pass, he imagined summoning the courage to livestream his capture, possibly even his own death.

两年来，自从他把自己的X账号变成了最具影响力的中文未审查新闻和异见来源之一，李颖就不断收到人身伤害的威胁。他想象过，如果这些威胁真的变成现实，自己要鼓起勇气，直播自己被捕、甚至可能是自己死亡的过程。

When one of the men reached into his pocket, Mr. Li froze. He forgot to livestream.

当其中一名男子把手伸进兜里时，李颖僵住了。他忘了开直播。

The man pulled out a can of spray paint and scrawled the word “stupro,” Italian for rape. Then both men left.

那个男子掏出了一罐喷漆，在墙上胡乱写下了“stupro”这个词——意大利语意为“强奸”。然后两人便离开了。

Mr. Li’s worst fears had not come to pass. He called the police. Four officers came, and they took his statement and his security camera footage. A friend drove from Milan to collect him and his two cats. By morning the apartment was empty.

李颖最担心的可怕情况并未发生。他报了警。四名警察赶到现场，记录了他的陈述并取走了他的安全摄像头录像。一位朋友从米兰开车来接他和他的两只猫。到了清晨，公寓里已空无一人。

After that moment, Mr. Li, who is known as “Teacher Li” to his followers on social media, decided that his life should not be dictated by fear. Rather than back down, he expanded his activities — traveling, attending human rights conferences and meeting diplomats, journalists, activists and politicians across Europe, Asia and North America.

经历了那个时刻后，在社交媒体上被粉丝称为“李老师”的李颖决定，他的生活不应该被恐惧所支配。他没有退缩，而是扩大了自己的活动范围——四处旅行、参加人权会议，并与欧洲、亚洲和北美各地的外交官、记者、活动人士和政治人士会面。

“When you are able to face the abyss directly,” Mr. Li said, “the abyss gradually starts to fear you instead.”

“当你能够直面深渊时，”李颖说。“深渊反而渐渐开始害怕你了。”

The Italian police have not released any information about the investigation, but Mr. Li was certain that the Chinese government had hired the vandals. Under Xi Jinping, censorship and surveillance have made sustained dissent inside China extremely difficult. Beijing has proved equally determined to pursue those who speak out from abroad.

意大利警方尚未公布任何关于调查的信息，但李颖确信，这些破坏者是中国政府雇佣的。在习近平执政下，审查和监控使得在中国境内持续进行异议活动变得极其困难。北京同样表示坚决追击那些在海外公开发声的人。

Mr. Li, 34, is among the biggest targets of Beijing. Constant doxxing kept him on the move. Smears and death threats filled his X feed. Then the intimidation turned physical: Strangers appeared at his door, photographed his building and scrawled threats in his hallway.

现年34岁的李颖是北京最大的目标之一。持续不断的个人信息泄露让他不停搬迁。抹黑和死亡威胁充斥着他的X动态。接着，恐吓演变成了实质的人身骚扰：陌生人出现在他的家门口，拍摄他的公寓楼，在他的走廊里写下恐吓话语。

A growing number of Chinese who found living in an authoritarian state intolerable have moved abroad. Most are too fearful of a vengeful government to speak up. But people like Mr. Li provide an alternative to the official government narratives through podcasts, YouTube channels, bookstores and X accounts run from Tokyo, Toronto and New York.

越来越多的中国人因无法忍受生活在威权国家而移居海外。他们中大多数人因害怕遭到政府的报复而不敢发声。但也有李颖这样的人，通过从东京、多伦多和纽约运营的播客、YouTube频道、书店和X账号，提供了另一种打破官方政府叙事的视角。

Few have reached an audience as large as Mr. Li’s.

鲜少有人能像李颖那样触及如此庞大的受众。

According to data analytics firm Similarweb, his X account, which has 2.2 million followers, ranked fifth globally on the site by traffic in December — extraordinary for an account written in Chinese. From 2023 to 2025, the account generated more than six billion views each year.

根据数据分析公司Similarweb的数据，他拥有220万粉丝的X账号访问量在去年12月位居全球第五——这对于一个用中文账号来说是惊人的。从2023年到2025年，该账号每年都能创造超过60亿次的浏览量。

He posts accounts of unemployed university graduates, delivery drivers who once held more prestigious jobs, the people who spent money on apartments that were never built or who were never paid for their work. Some of the information is sent by people inside China, such as videos of the police cracking down on Wuhan residents protesting plans for a battery factory. Some posts come from Chinese social media sites, such as Weibo and Douyin, the sister short video app of TikTok.

他发布的内容涉及失业大学毕业生、曾经从事过更体面工作的外卖骑手、为烂尾楼付款的人，或劳务费未获支付的人。其中一些信息来自中国国内人士，比如警察镇压武汉居民抗议电池厂规划的视频。还有一些帖子来自中国的社交媒体网站，如微博和抖音（TikTok的姊妹短视频应用）。

“His is not just a single voice,” said Laura Harth, a director based in Italy for Safeguard Defenders, a human rights organization. “He’s like the loudspeaker through which all the other voices” — Chinese voices — “come out into the world.”

“他的声音不仅仅代表他自己，”总部位于意大利的人权组织“保护卫士”的负责人劳拉·哈思说。“他就像一个扬声器，所有其他的声音”——中国人的声音——“通过他传向世界。”

A Cute and Menacing Cat

一只可爱又带着一丝威胁的猫

Mr. Li grew up in eastern China’s Anhui Province and has been drawing for as long as he can remember. He moved to Italy to study painting. In November 2022, when demonstrations erupted in China protesting the country’s draconian “zero Covid” policies, he was living in Milan. He had a modest following on Twitter, as X was known at the time; his avatar is a hand-drawn cat that’s simultaneously cute and menacing.

李颖在中国东部的安徽省长大，从记事起就一直在画画。他搬到意大利是为了学习绘画。2022年11月，当中国暴发抗议严厉“清零”政策的示威活动时，他正住在米兰。当时他在Twitter（即后来的X）上只有少量的关注者；他的头像是一只手绘的猫，看起来既可爱又带着一丝威胁。

The protests were the largest wave of public dissent since Tiananmen Square in 1989. Mr. Li opened his account to anyone inside China with something to show the world. People began sending him photographs, videos and witness accounts — for example, of police officers arresting protesters or people chanting for Mr. Xi to step down — that would have been censored on the Chinese internet. His following exploded.

那些抗议活动是自1989年天安门广场事件以来最大规模的公开异见浪潮。李颖向所有身在中国国内、并且有内容想向世界展示的人开放了他的账号。人们开始向他发送照片、视频和目击者称述——例如警察逮捕抗议者，或是人们高喊让习近平下台的场景——这些内容在中国的互联网上都会被迅速审查屏蔽。他的粉丝量随即迎来了爆炸式增长。

Then came the retaliation.

接踵而至的是报复。

Each time he posted online, the police would appear at his parents’ house in Anhui. The Chinese Embassy in Italy wrote to a language school in Milan where Mr. Li worked, accusing him of fraud. He lost his job.

每当他在网上发布消息，警察就会出现在他安徽父母的家门前。中国驻意大利大使馆向李颖工作的一所米兰语言学校致信，指控他诈骗。他因此失去了工作。

His parents begged him to stop posting. His bank accounts in China were frozen. So were his payment apps and gaming accounts.

他的父母哀求他停止发帖。他在国内的银行账户被冻结，他的支付应用和游戏账号也同样被封禁。

Convinced he was being tracked, he moved four times in a year. At his most isolated, he did not leave his building for two weeks, surviving mostly on McDonald’s takeout delivered to his house.

由于确信自己被追踪，他在一年内搬了四次家。在最孤立无援的时候，他连续两周没有离开过公寓，主要靠送上门的麦当劳外卖度日。

In 2024, the police in China began summoning Mr. Li’s followers and pressuring them to unfollow his account. Then came the graffiti in Turin.

2024年，国内警方开始传唤李颖的关注者，施压要求他们取消关注他的账号。随后发生了都灵走廊里的涂鸦事件。

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China runs the most extensive version of transnational repression in the world, touching millions of people in at least 36 countries, according to a 2021 Freedom House report. Beijing uses espionage, cyberattacks, threats and physical assaults to silence and punish its critics.

根据“自由之家” 2021年的一份报告，中国实施着世界上最广泛的跨国镇压系统，波及至少36个国家数以百万计的民众。北京利用间谍活动、网络攻击、威胁和人身攻击来使批评者噤声并对其进行惩罚。

Over the past few years, the authorities in Europe and the United States have investigated and prosecuted cases linked to Beijing’s efforts to monitor and intimidate dissidents abroad.

在过去的几年里，欧洲和美国当局调查并起诉了多起与北京试图监视和恐吓海外异见人士相关的案件。

In February, an OpenAI report documented how Chinese law enforcement had used the company’s ChatGPT to conduct online influence operations against dissidents and foreign leaders, using Mr. Li as one of the examples. Mr. Li’s team and Safeguard Defenders encourage overseas Chinese to document their experiences of Beijing’s transnational repression and submit evidence to the authorities in democratic countries.

今年2月，OpenAI的一份报告详细记录了中国执法部门如何利用该公司的ChatGPT对异见人士和外国领导人进行在线舆论引导，并以李颖作为例子。李颖的团队和“保护卫士”鼓励海外华人记录自己遭遇北京跨国镇压的经历，并向民主国家的当局提交证据。

Beijing denies accusations of transnational repression and accuses foreign governments of interfering in China’s internal affairs.

北京坚决否认有关跨国镇压的指控，并指责外国政府干涉中国内政。

I’ve talked to Mr. Li many times over the years. I once joked to him that there are two publications I read every day to keep up with China news: the official People’s Daily and his X feed.

这些年来，我曾与李颖交谈过许多次。我曾向他开玩笑说，为了解中国新闻，有两份出版物是我每天必读的：一份是官方的《人民日报》，另一份就是他的X平台动态。

Early on, he resisted the “rebel” label and told me that he regretted what he had gotten himself into. He was incredulous that some Chinese pinned their hope of democracy on an influencer like him. Having paid the price of dissent, he understood why so few people dared to speak out.

在早期，他抗拒“反叛者”的标签，并曾告诉我他后悔让自己陷入这种境地。有些中国人将民主的希望寄托在像他这样的网红身上，这让他感到不可思议。在付出了反抗的代价后，他理解了为什么很少有人敢于公开说话。

But as time passed, Mr. Li seemed increasingly comfortable inhabiting his role as an activist. He still doesn’t want his photo taken, and he surveys any room he enters. But the man who once hid inside his apartment now moves confidently through airports and attends conferences and visits embassies. He briefs diplomats on what’s going on in China and Beijing’s methods of transnational repression.

但随着时间的推移，李颖似乎越来越习惯于自己作为活动人士的角色。他仍然不希望被拍下照片，并且每进入一个房间都会仔细环视四周。然而，这位曾经躲在公寓里不敢出门的人，现在已经自信地穿梭于各大机场、出席各种会议并拜访各国大使馆。他向外交官们简报中国的现状以及北京实施跨国镇压的手段。

He oversees staff and volunteers who help aggregate news and manage his X account as well as putting out a new weekly newsletter in English. In February 2025, Mr. Li’s team organized a crowdsourced investigation into long school hours inside China, drawing thousands of submissions from students and parents. Some schools adjusted their schedules after the findings circulated widely online. (His work is supported by private donors.)

他领导着一支由员工和志愿者组成的团队，负责汇总新闻、管理他的X账号，并每周发布一份英文简报。2025年2月，李颖的团队组织了一次针对中国国内学生在校时间过长的众包调查，吸引了数以千计学生和家长的反馈。在调查结果于网上广泛流传后，一些学校调整了作息时间表。（他的工作由私人捐助者资助。）

In December, I asked whether he considered himself a revolutionary. He hesitated.

去年12月，我问他是否认为自己是一个革命者。他犹豫了。

The word, he said, carries associations with violence and bloodshed — things he abhors.

他说，这个词会让人联想到暴力和流血——而这些是他所厌恶的。

But Mr. Li said he now saw his work as part of a nonviolent struggle against Communist Party rule.

但李颖表示，他现在将自己的工作视为反对共产党统治的非暴力抗争的一部分。

“For a long time, I was the one being chased by them,” he told me, referring to the Chinese government. “But now, I’ve turned the tables — I’m the one pursuing them around the world and pushing back against them.”

“在很长一段时间里，我都是那个被他们追捕的人，”他指的是中方政府。“但现在，我反客为主——是我在世界各地追着他们，并且做出反击。”

In April, we met in Tokyo. Mr. Li likes the city because of its Chinese diaspora, which in recent years has attracted a growing number of journalists, activists and intellectuals.

今年4月，我们在东京见面。李颖喜欢这座城市，因为这里有庞大的华人流散群体，近年来吸引了越来越多移居此地的记者、活动人士和知识分子。

He also likes the proximity to China — as close, perhaps, as an exiled dissident can get.

他同样喜欢这里距离中国很近——对于一位流亡异见人士来说，这或许是能达到的最近距离了。

In May, during President Trump’s state visit to China, Mr. Li’s posts made a brief splash on Chinese social media. Mr. Li’s account had posted a photo showing Mr. Musk walking with his young son, who was wearing a Chinese-style vest. Mr. Musk, a member of the U.S. delegation, replied to the post in Chinese: “My son is learning Mandarin.”

5月，在特朗普总统对中国进行国事访问期间，李颖发布的帖子在中国社交媒体上引发了短暂的轰动。李颖的账号发布了一张照片，画面显示马斯克正与他年幼的儿子走在一起，孩子穿着一件中式马甲。作为美国代表团成员的马斯克用中文回复了该帖子：“我的儿子正在学普通话。”

The exchange quickly became one of the most discussed topics on Chinese social media. A state media outlet created a hashtag #ElonMusksaidhissonislearningChinese on the Weibo platform. Some comments slyly asked, “So, to whom he was responding?” After a few hours, the hashtag was deleted.

这一互动迅速成为中国社交媒体上讨论度最高的话题之一。一家官媒在微博平台上创建了标签“#埃隆·马斯克说儿子正在学中文#”。一些评论敏锐地暗讽道：“那他是在回复谁呢？”几小时后，这个标签被删除了。

Soon after, Mr. Li posted an image generated by artificial intelligence showing Mr. Musk and Mr. Xi seated together at a state dinner. Mr. Musk was holding up a phone toward the Chinese leader.

不久之后，李颖发布了一张由人工智能生成的图片，画面中马斯克和习近平在国宴上并肩而坐。马斯克正拿着手机给这位中国领导人看。

On the screen was Mr. Li’s mischievous cat avatar.

而在那块手机屏幕上，显示的正是李颖那只调皮的猫咪头像。

A spokeswoman for Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, criticized Beijing for expelling a New York Times reporter from China in response to Mr. Lai’s appearance by video at a Times DealBook summit in New York in December.

台湾总统赖清德的发言人谴责北京对《纽约时报》记者的驱逐行动，北京此举是对赖清德去年12月通过视频连线参加《纽约时报》DealBook峰会一事的回应。

The reporter, Vivian Wang, who was based in Beijing, was expelled in February. She was not involved in the DealBook conference, an annual event that features prominent executives and politicians. Chinese officials had complained for months about Ms. Wang’s reporting, which often addressed topics Beijing considered sensitive.

这位驻北京记者王月眉(Vivian Wang)于2月被驱逐。她并未参与DealBook峰会——一项通常邀请知名企业高管和政治人物的年度活动。中国官员数月来一直对王月眉的报道表示不满，其报道经常涉及北京认为敏感的议题。

At the same time, China has sought to isolate Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing considers its territory, and largely regards any engagement with Taiwan’s leaders as a violation of Chinese sovereignty.

与此同时，中国试图孤立台湾。北京将这个自治岛屿视为其领土，将任何与台湾领导人的接触基本上等同为侵犯中国主权的行为。

In a statement posted online on Sunday, the Taiwan president’s spokeswoman, Kuo Ya-hui, said China’s efforts to pressure media organizations not to engage with Mr. Lai was a threat to press freedom and the safety of journalists.

台湾总统发言人郭雅惠周日在网上发表声明表示，中国向媒体组织施压，要求其不要与赖清德接触，这是对新闻自由和记者安全的威胁。

“China’s use of baseless pretexts and brutal methods to threaten the media and interfere with press freedom not only fails to improve its international image, but also highlights that China is currently a source of instability and a troublemaker,” Ms. Kuo said.

“中国假借无端理由，以粗暴手段威胁媒体，干预新闻自由，不仅无助于改善其国际形象，更凸显此刻的中国，正是区域与国际社会的不安来源与麻烦制造者，”郭雅惠说。

The expulsion of Ms. Wang, who had been a China correspondent for the paper since 2020, is the latest example of a crackdown by Beijing on foreign correspondents whose reporting challenges Beijing’s official line.

王月眉自2020年起担任《纽约时报》驻华记者，她被驱逐是北京打压外国记者的最新案例，这些记者的报道挑战了北京的官方叙事。

Ms. Wang’s reporting focused on the lives of ordinary Chinese people and the challenges they faced with censorship, Beijing’s unpopular response to the coronavirus pandemic and the steady expansion of China’s security state.

王月眉的报道聚焦中国普通民众的生活，以及他们面临的审查制度、北京对新冠疫情不得人心的应对、中国的“安全国家”持续扩张等问题。

In a diplomatic tit-for-tat, the Trump administration revoked the visa of a U.S.-based journalist for the Chinese state news agency, Xinhua, which is widely regarded by experts as a propaganda organ. The Times played no role in the Chinese reporter’s expulsion, a spokesperson for the paper said last week.

特朗普政府在外交上采取了对等行动，取消了中国官方通讯社新华社一名驻美记者的签证。专家普遍认为新华社是宣传机构。《纽约时报》发言人上周表示，时报在这名中国记者遭驱逐一事中未发挥任何作用。

Ms. Kuo defended Mr. Lai’s interviews with foreign media as a way to “explain the country’s position, share democratic experiences, and express the shared commitment to maintaining regional security and peace.”

郭雅惠为赖清德接受外国媒体采访进行辩护，称这是“向世界说明国家立场、分享民主经验、表达共同维护区域安全与和平的决心”的方式。

To isolate Mr. Lai, Beijing has also tried to sever the Taiwanese leader’s access to international flight paths, according to Taiwanese officials. In April, Mr. Lai was forced to call off a trip to the tiny southern African kingdom of Eswatini after three countries rescinded permits for him to fly through their airspace, apparently because of pressure from Beijing.

据台湾官员透露，为孤立赖清德，北京还试图切断台湾领导人对国际航线的使用。4月，赖清德被迫一度取消了对非洲南部小国斯威士兰的访问，此前有三个国家撤销了他的过境许可，显然是受到了北京的压力。

Mr. Lai eventually made the trip in May.

赖清德最终于5月完成了这次访问。

For three years, Mahendra Dharmapriya, a Sri Lankan restaurateur, filled the streets of his neighborhood in rural Japan with the smells of his homeland: creamy lentils, fish curry, egg hoppers and black tea with ginger.

三年来，斯里兰卡餐馆老板马亨德拉·达尔马普里亚一直让他家乡的味道弥漫在日本乡村街巷中：奶油扁豆、咖喱鱼、蛋碗饼和生姜红茶。

But on a recent Saturday, Mr. Dharmapriya cooked the last meal at Daiya Ceylon, his Sri Lankan curry shop in the Japanese town of Shimotsuke, about 66 miles north of Tokyo, and shut its doors. He was forced to close the restaurant because he could not satisfy new visa rules meant to restrict the flow of foreigners into Japan. He plans to return to Sri Lanka this week.

但在最近的一个周六，达尔马普里亚在下野——东京以北约66英里处的一座小城——的斯里兰卡咖喱店Daiya Ceylon做了最后一顿饭，随后关门歇业。被迫关闭餐厅是因为他无法满足旨在限制外国人流入日本的签证新规。他计划本周返回斯里兰卡。

“I felt so alone,” Mr. Dharmapriya, 40, who moved to Japan in 2015, said in a recent interview at his restaurant, where he was handing out unopened bags of spices and cassava chips to friends. “I have no hope for the future right now.”

“我感觉孤立无援，”现年40岁的达尔马普里亚说。2015年移居日本的他最近在店内接受采访，同时还在忙着将未开封的香料和木薯片分发给朋友们。“我现在对未来没有任何希望。”

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, won office last year on a promise to more strictly regulate immigration and tourism. Now her government is trying to deliver, scrutinizing the roughly 47,000 foreigners like Mr. Dharmapriya who live in the country on so-called business manager visas.

日本首相高市早苗去年上台时承诺将更严格地监管移民和旅游业。如今，她的政府正试图兑现承诺，对像达尔马普里亚这样持所谓“经营管理签证”居住在日本的约4.7万名外国人进行严格审查。

Japan has long been cautious about immigration; foreigners make up only about 3 percent of the population. Some experts argue that Japan needs to allow more immigrants to deal with labor shortages and offset its rapidly declining population. But a wave of nationalist sentiment has swept the country recently, with some activists calling for even stricter controls as part of a “Japan First” movement.

长期以来，日本对移民一直持谨慎态度；外国人仅占总人口的约3%。一些专家认为，日本需要允许更多移民来解决劳动力短缺问题，并抵消其人口的急剧下降。但近期民族主义情绪席卷全国，作为“日本优先”运动的一部分，一些活动人士呼吁采取更严格的管控措施。

Conservatives say that foreigners are exploiting Japan’s visa rules to stay in the country indefinitely. The government has responded by making it harder to obtain business manager visas, requiring applicants to have $188,000 in capital, up from $31,000 previously, and to employ at least one full-time staff member.

保守派人士称，外国人正在利用日本的签证规则无限期滞留日本。政府的应对措施是提高经营管理签证的获取难度，将所需的注册资本从之前的3.1万美元提高到18.8万美元，并要求雇佣至少一名全职员工。

东京新宿区一条遍布餐厅的街道。

The change has left many foreign restaurant owners in limbo. For decades, workers from India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, China, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries have relied on business manager visas, setting up small restaurants in Japanese cities and rural areas that serve curry, fried rice, noodles and other favorites.

这一变化让许多外籍餐厅老板陷入困境。多年来，来自印度、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、中国、越南、泰国等国的工作者一直依赖经营管理签证在日本的城市和农村地区开设小餐馆，供应咖喱、炒饭、面条和其他深受喜爱的美食。

Chan Ka Yee, who managed a branch of San Mai San, a Hong Kong-style congee chain, in Tokyo, closed her restaurant last week after more than five years because she said she could not meet the new visa requirements. She plans to return to Hong Kong this summer.

陈嘉怡（Chan Ka Yee，音）在东京经营的一家名为“3米3”(San Mai San)的港式粥铺连锁店上周结束了营业。在经营了五年多后，她无法满足新的签证要求。她计划今年夏天返回香港。

On her final day, customers brought flowers and snapped photos of Ms. Chan as she made pork congee, waffles and milk tea. She thanked them and waved goodbye.

结业当天，顾客们送来鲜花，并在陈女士制作猪肉粥、华夫饼和奶茶时争相拍照。她感谢了大家并挥手告别。

The next morning, she wrote on social media, “My eyes are incredibly swollen from crying so much last night.”

第二天早上，她在社交媒体上写道：“昨晚哭得太多，眼睛肿得很厉害。”

“I can’t believe it’s over,” she said. “I wanted to stay there forever.”

“我不敢相信就这样结束了，”她说，“我本来想永远留在那里的。”

Chie Taniguchi, 50, a regular at Ms. Chan’s restaurant, called the new visa requirements “sloppy politics.”

50岁的谷口千惠（Chie Taniguchi，音）是陈女士餐厅的常客，她称新的签证要求是“草率的政治操作”。

“Now it will become impossible for Japanese people to discover new flavors and food cultures,” she said.

“这样一来，日本人就不可能发现新的口味和饮食文化了，”她说。

港式粥铺连锁店“3米3”最后一天营业。

Japanese activists are pushing Ms. Takaichi’s administration to reconsider the changes. A petition has gathered more than 60,000 signatures.

日本活动人士正敦促高市早苗政府重新考虑这些变更。一份请愿书已收集了超过6万个签名。

Manish Kumar, an Indian restaurant owner, went public this month with his criticism of the rules. He spoke in an emotional video about living in Japan for 30 years, studying Japanese and raising his children in the country.

印度餐馆老板马尼什·库马尔本月公开批评了这些规定。他在一段情绪激动的视频中讲述了自己在日本生活了30年、学习日语并在这里抚养孩子的经历。

“They haven’t done anything wrong,” he said of his children. “I think it’s cruel to suddenly be told: ‘The rules have changed. You must go back.’”

“他们没有做错任何事，”谈到自己的孩子时他说，“突然被告知‘规则变了，你们必须回去’，我觉得这太残忍了。”

The video prompted intense backlash, with some commentators accusing Mr. Kumar of exploiting the system by staying in Japan for so long.

这段视频引发了强烈的反弹，一些评论人士指责库马尔利用制度在日本停留了如此之久。

Ms. Takaichi’s administration says the new rules have been a success. There are now an average of 70 applications per month for business manager visas, compared with 1,700 under the old system, a 96 percent drop.

高市早苗政府表示，新规取得了成功。目前每月平均收到70份经营管理签证申请，而在旧制度下为1700份，降幅达96%。

Kimi Onoda, the minister who oversees economic security and policies on foreigners, said at a recent news conference that the changes had helped dispel concerns that the visas “might be abused as a means of immigration.”

负责经济安全和外国人政策的大臣小野田纪美在最近的新闻发布会上表示，这些变化有助于消除人们对签证“可能被滥用为移民手段”的担忧。

The abrupt shift in policy has been tough for many restaurant workers, who have to pack up their lives in about a month.

政策的突然转变对许多餐饮业工作者来说打击沉重，他们不得不在大约一个月内收拾行囊，结束在这里的生活。

达尔马普里亚在下野的餐厅经营了三年。

Mr. Dharmapriya recalled his visit to an immigration office in April, when he learned that his visa renewal application had been rejected because he did not hire an additional employee. He was so devastated that it took him seven hours to drive back home — it usually takes two.

达尔马普里亚回忆起今年4月去一个移民办公室的经历，当时他得知自己的签证续签申请被拒，原因是他没有雇佣额外的员工。他深受打击，开车回家花了七个小时——平时只需两小时。

He said he was saddened by the perception among some Japanese that immigrants are a source of problems. “We don’t cost anyone money, we pay our taxes, we pay our bills,” he said.

他说，一些日本人认为移民是麻烦的来源，这种看法让他感到难过。“我们不花别人的钱，我们纳税，我们支付账单，”他说。

In early May, Mr. Dharmapriya held a farewell buffet for his customers, serving dishes like red rice and dal curry. He was expecting about 20 people, but more than 70 attended, bringing Japanese sweets and other gifts.

5月初，达尔马普里亚为顾客举办了一场告别自助餐，供应红米饭和木豆咖喱等。他预计会有大约20人来，结果来了70多人，大家都带来了日式点心和其他礼物。

He will soon return to his hometown in Sri Lanka. He has not yet told his family why he is leaving.

他很快就要回到斯里兰卡的家乡了。他还没告诉家人自己为什么要离开。

“If I have the chance,” he said, “I would come back to Japan tomorrow if I could.”

“如果有机会，”他说，“只要能回来，我明天就想回到日本。”

Among the hundreds of thousands of Chinese women who have settled in Taiwan after marrying men from the island, Hsu Chun-ying stood out for her political ambition. She organized other migrants from China, mingled with prominent Taiwanese politicians and came close to becoming a candidate for the legislature.

在数十万因嫁给台湾男性而在台湾定居的中国女性中，徐春莺因其政治抱负而显得格外引人注目。她组织其他来自中国的移民，与知名的台湾政治人物交往密切，还差一点成为立法委员候选人。

Now she is in jail, fighting charges that she was recruited by the Chinese Communist Party to secretly infiltrate and influence Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. Prosecutors have accused her of taking instructions from Chinese officials to interfere with Taiwanese legislative and mayoral elections, and of helping one of those officials covertly enter Taiwan under the guise of a business trip.

如今，她身陷囹圄，正面临被中共招募、秘密渗透并影响台湾的指控。北京声称台湾这个民主岛屿是其领土。检察官指控她听从中国官员的指示，干预台湾的立法委员和市长选举，并帮助其中一名中国官员以商务旅行的幌子秘密进入台湾。

Ms. Hsu is at the center of one of Taiwan’s most difficult security debates: how to counter what officials describe as growing Chinese infiltration of the island’s politics, media and internet, without casting suspicion on all Chinese migrants.

徐春莺身处台湾最棘手的国家安全辩论漩涡之中：如何应对官员们所称的中国对该岛政治、媒体和互联网日益加剧的渗透，同时又不让所有中国移民受到猜疑。

To government agencies in Taiwan, Chinese-born women, known as “mainland spouses,” are a concern because they often still have family members or property in China. Beijing could exploit those ties by threatening their relatives or promising financial rewards, to secure their cooperation.

对台湾的政府机构来说，被称为“陆配”的中国大陆出生女性是一个令人担忧的群体，因为她们通常在中国仍有家人或财产。北京可能会利用这些联系，通过威胁她们的亲属或承诺提供经济回报来确保其合作。

“Of course, we don’t want to stigmatize the entire mainland spouse community,” said Shen Yu-chung, a deputy minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which manages relations with China. “But there is a small minority of mainland spouses who may come here with specific assignments, and that is extremely troublesome.”

“我们当然不希望说整个陆配群体被标签化，”负责处理对陆关系的台湾陆委会副主任委员沈有忠表示。“但是就是有那么少数的陆配，他们可能是带有特定的工作来的，这个就非常的麻烦。”

The scrutiny has unnerved some of Taiwan’s community of 261,000 Chinese migrants, who are mostly women, according to the island’s immigration agency. In interviews, several women said that they were being unfairly cast as agents of Beijing.

这样的审视令一些中国移民感到不安，据台湾移民署统计，台湾共有26.1万名中国移民，其中大多为女性。在接受采访时，几位女性表示她们被不公平地描绘成北京的特工。

杨国域在台北。杨国域出生于中国，后来获得了台湾公民身份，现在致力于帮助其他移民。

“Isn’t it a great injustice to label this entire group as Communist Party allies?” said Sammi Yang, a Chinese-born woman who has acquired citizenship in Taiwan and works to help other migrants.

“你要把群体整个贴上一个标签‘中共同盟人’，那这不是很冤枉吗？”出生于中国、已获得台湾公民身份并致力于帮助其他移民者的杨国域说。

A New Kind of Infiltration Fear

新型的渗透恐惧

Prosecutors have accused nearly 80 people of violating the island’s Anti-Infiltration Act, which went into force in 2020 and prohibits interference in politics by external parties, according to a search of a Taiwanese court database. Most are locally born politicians, journalists and business owners. A handful are Chinese migrant women like Ms. Hsu.

根据对台湾法院数据库的检索，检察官已指控近80人违反了该岛的《反渗透法》，该法律于2020年生效，禁止外部势力干预政治。大多数被指控者是台湾本土出生的政治人物、记者和企业主。少数是像徐春莺这样的中国女性移民。

She faces up to five years’ imprisonment on the charge of infiltration. Ms. Hsu was arrested last year and has since been in jail, accused of working with Chinese officials to try to get mainland-born spouses elected to the legislature. Her lawyer said she could not be interviewed while she is in detention and facing trial. Ms. Hsu has rejected the infiltration allegations, while pleading guilty to separate financial charges.

由于渗透指控，她面临最高五年的监禁。徐春莺于去年被捕，此后一直被关在狱中，她被指控与中国官员合作，试图让大陆出生的配偶当选为立法委员。她的律师表示，在被拘留和面临审判期间，她无法接受采访。徐春莺否认渗透指控，但对另外的财务指控认罪。

Experts say recent cases illustrate how China’s strategy has evolved from piecemeal espionage into more sophisticated efforts to reach into Taiwan’s society and political system for information and influence.

专家表示，最近的案件表明，中国的战略已经从零星的间谍活动演变为更复杂的手段，试图触及台湾的社会和政治体系，以便获取信息、增加影响力。

“They have shifted from isolated targets to a more systematic and organized approach,” said Ko Cheng-heng, a former deputy director general of Taiwan’s national security bureau — its main intelligence agency. “To put it bluntly, it is increasingly obvious that they want to cultivate more pro-China proxies.”

“这几年来我看到他已经已经把它从单点变成一个更系统化、更组织化，”台湾主要情报机构国家安全局前副局长柯承亨说。“如果用一个比较直白的，他们是越来越明显的想培养更多的亲中的代理者。”

位于台北的台湾立法机构立法院。检方指控徐春莺与中国官员勾结，干预台湾选举。

But Taiwan’s courts have wrestled over the boundary between legitimate free speech and activities, open and illicit, that are directed by the Chinese government. A court last year rejected a case under the island’s National Security Act, dismissing charges against a woman accused of accepting support from Chinese intelligence agencies.

但台湾的法院一直在努力厘清合法言论自由与中国政府指使的公开及非法活动之间的界限。去年，一家法院驳回了一起涉及台湾《国家安全法》的案件，撤销了对一名被控接受中国情报机构支持的女性的指控。

From a Migrant Advocate to Would-Be Lawmaker

从移民倡导者到准立法委员

Ms. Hsu’s journey reflects the complex history of the Taiwan Strait.

徐春莺的经历折射出台湾海峡复杂的历史。

In 1949, China’s Kuomintang government lost a civil war against Communist Chinese forces and fled to Taiwan, resulting in decades of hostility across the strait. Marriages between people in Taiwan and China were rare until the 1990s when contacts resumed, and a wave of unions followed.

1949年，国民党政府在与中国共产党的内战中失败，逃往台湾，导致了海峡两岸长达数十年的敌对状态。台湾和中国民众之间的婚姻非常罕见，直到20世纪90年代两岸恢复接触，随后便出现了一波婚姻热潮。

Ms. Hsu, who was born in Shanghai, moved to Taiwan in the 1990s after marrying a Taiwanese man. She has said she obtained citizenship in 2000.

出生于上海的徐春莺在90年代嫁给一名台湾男子后移居台湾。她曾表示自己在2000年获得了台湾公民身份。

She became a prominent organizer of “mainland spouses,” helping to form an alliance of groups that represented their causes. Chief among their grievances was that Chinese-born spouses must wait six years before they may apply for citizenship, two years longer than other nonlocal spouses.

她成了“陆配”的知名组织者，协助建立了一个代表该群体诉求的联盟。她们的主要不满之一是，大陆出生的配偶必须等待六年才能申请公民身份，比其他非本地配偶多两年。

位于台北的移民署，摄于上周二。中国出生的配偶必须等待六年才能申请入籍，比其他非本地配偶多等两年。

“She really is formidable when it comes to organization,” said Ms. Yang, the Chinese migrant activist, who got to know Ms. Hsu through their work helping other spouses. “Whatever the issue, if you went to her with it, she would do her best to help resolve it.”

“她真的就是在做活动这个部分非常厉害，”中国移民活动人士杨国域说，她是通过帮助其他配偶的工作认识徐春莺的。“无论什么问题，只要你去找她，她都会尽力帮忙解决。”

Ms. Hsu and other mainland-born women began to attract the attention of Taiwan’s opposition parties as a potential voting bloc. Like many such spouses, Ms. Hsu regularly returned to China to visit family and became increasingly involved with Chinese officials through her organization.

作为潜在的票仓，徐春莺和其他大陆出生的女性开始吸引台湾在野党的注意。与许多此类配偶一样，徐春莺经常回中国探亲，并通过她的组织与中国官员进行更多接触。

In 2023, the Taiwan People’s Party, an upstart opposition party, considered nominating her as a candidate for the legislature. But she pulled out after opponents questioned her eligibility and her visits to China. She denied accusations that she was taking orders from Beijing.

2023年，新兴的反对党台湾民众党曾考虑提名她为立法委员候选人。但在反对者质疑她的参选资格和她的中国之行后，她退出了竞选。她否认有关她听从北京命令的指控。

“I don’t think a society should be torn apart like this,” Ms. Hsu said in an interview with a Taiwanese online program at that time. “We shouldn’t differentiate based on where people are from. If you come here and love Taiwan, you are Taiwanese.”

“我觉得一个社会不应该这样被撕裂，”徐春莺当时在接受台湾一档网络节目采访时说道。“不应该去分哪里人。来到这里、喜欢台湾就是台湾人。”

The Accusations Against Hsu

对徐春莺的指控

Prosecutors say that by the time of her political rise, Ms. Hsu was already involved with two Chinese officials who sent her instructions. She, in turn, passed on information and gossip about Taiwanese politics. They communicated by WeChat, a Chinese messaging app.

检察官表示，在政治地位崛起之时，徐春莺已经与两名向她下达指示的中国官员有牵连。而她向对方传递了有关台湾政治的信息和八卦。他们通过中国的通讯应用程序微信进行交流。

Messages between Ms. Hsu and the officials cited in the indictment suggested that they tried to help Ms. Hsu get herself and other migrants from China nominated as candidates for Taiwan’s legislature.

起诉书中引用徐春莺与这些官员之间的信息表明，他们试图帮助徐春莺及其它来自中国的移民获得台湾立法机构候选人提名。

“We’ll send our people into the legislature, and then they’ll have the power to speak out,” wrote one of the Chinese officials, Yang Wentao, of China’s ministry of civil affairs, according to the indictment.

根据起诉书，其中一名中国官员、中国民政部的杨文涛写道：“咱们先送咱们的人进立委，进去以后才有发言权。”

The other Chinese official named in the case was Sun Xian, who belonged to a Communist Party-controlled minor party in Shanghai and specialized in dealings with Taiwan. Ms. Hsu is accused of concealing Mr. Sun’s political background to bring him to Taiwan on the pretext of a business trip. (According to the indictment, Mr. Sun met with a deputy chairman of the opposition Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with Beijing, as well as with retired military officers and functionaries of the Taiwan People’s Party.)

案件中提到的另一位中国官员是孙宪，他属于上海一个由共产党控制的小党派，专门负责处理台湾事务。徐春莺被控隐瞒孙宪的政治背景，以商务旅行的借口带他进入台湾。（根据起诉书，孙宪会见了主张与北京建立更紧密关系的反对党国民党的一位副主席，以及退役军官和台湾民众党的工作人员。）

In court, Ms. Hsu acknowledged knowing Mr. Sun, the Chinese official, but argued that she was simply helping him with the visit on behalf of a friend, Lo Ying, who is also being prosecuted. Ms. Lo rejected Ms. Hsu’s version of events in testimony to the court.

在法庭上，徐春莺承认认识中国官员孙宪，但辩称她只是代表同样被起诉的朋友罗颖帮助他安排访问。罗颖在法庭作证时否认了徐春莺对事件的说法。

The prosecutors also presented a text message that they said Ms. Hsu sent to Ms. Lo about Mr. Sun’s visit. “Low key and as secret as possible,” the text message said.

检察官还出示了一条据称是徐春莺发给罗颖的短信，是关于孙宪来访事宜。短信写道：“低调尽量保密。”

李贞秀于4月在台湾桃园市。台湾官员表示，李贞秀未放弃中国户籍，不符合担任公职的资格。

Earlier this year a different kind of controversy erupted around Li Chen-hsiu, a mainland-born woman who briefly joined Taiwan’s legislature as a lawmaker for the Taiwan People’s Party.

今年早些时候还有另一起争议事件，主角是大陆出生的女性李贞秀，她曾作为台湾民众党的立委短暂进入台湾立法机构。

Ms. Li has not been accused of any espionage or criminality. Instead, officials said Ms. Li was not eligible for office because she had failed to give up her residency in China. Ms. Li disagreed, arguing that the Taiwanese authorities make it near impossible for Chinese migrants to meet eligibility requirements for elections. She was eventually expelled from her party, after falling out with its leaders, and removed from the legislature.

李贞秀并未被指控犯有任何间谍罪或刑事犯罪。官员们表示她没有任职资格，因为她没有放弃中国户籍。李贞秀对此表示异议，认为台湾当局让中国移民几乎无法满足选举的资格要求。在与党内领导人闹翻后，她最终被开除党籍，并被撤销立法委员资格。

“No political party or democratic country, especially one founded on human rights, should measure the loyalty of its citizens based on their place of birth,” Ms. Li said in an interview. “If you treat mainland spouses with these preconceived notions, that’s unfair to them.”

“我认为说其实任何的政党、民主国家，特别是人权立国的国家，不应该以出生地来区分自己国民的忠诚度，”李贞秀在接受采访时说。“如果用这些先入为主的观念来对待陆配，这对她们是不公平的。”

Vietnam’s most powerful and globally minded leader in decades, To Lam, warned Asia’s military leaders on Friday that peace and stability require a renewed focus on economic development, criticizing a world of unchecked competition where “might makes right.”

苏林是越南数十年来权力最大、最具全球视野的领导人，他周五在亚洲各国军事领导人面前发出警告称，要实现和平与稳定就必须重新聚焦经济发展，并批评当今世界充斥着“强权即公理”的无序竞争。

In his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum in Singapore, Mr. Lam stressed that “instability today comes not only from military conflict, but also from disruptions in development.”

在新加坡举行的年度安全论坛香格里拉对话会上发表主旨演讲时，苏林强调：“当今的不稳定性不仅源于军事冲突，还源于发展进程中的断裂。”

Mr. Lam, while careful not to criticize the United States or China directly, acknowledged that a series of threats is making it harder for his country and the region to prosper.

苏林措辞谨慎，未直接批评美国或中国，但承认一系列威胁正使越南及整个地区的繁荣之路愈加艰难。

A global arms race will not make countries more secure, he warned, as he sought to present Vietnam in a new light — not just as a nation of flexible foreign policy, but also as a proactive force in world affairs and a resilient manufacturing hub that aims to shape policy and partnerships across Southeast Asia.

他警告说，全球军备竞赛不会让各国变得更加安全。与此同时，他试图以全新的形象展示越南——不仅是一个奉行灵活外交政策的国家，更是一个积极参与全球事务的力量，以及一个具有韧性的制造业中心，旨在塑造整个东南亚地区的政策与伙伴关系。

“What we need is a development foundation with high resilience to shocks,” he said, adding, “When cooperation provides safety, livelihoods and better living standards for people, strategic trust will be strengthened and nurtured.”

他说，“我们所需要的是一个能够高度抵御冲击的发展基础，”并补充道，“一旦合作能够保障人民的安全与生计，提升人民群众的生活水平，战略互信就将得到巩固和加深。”

Mr. Lam’s half-hour speech, just a few weeks after he officially took on dual roles as chief of Vietnam’s Communist Party and its head of state, marked a high point in his effort to project confidence and preserve the conditions required for what he has described as Vietnam’s “era of national rise.”

苏林正式兼任越共中央总书记与国家主席仅数周，此番长达半小时的演讲是他展现自信、努力维护其所谓越南“民族崛起的时代”所需外部条件的一个重要时刻。

Vietnam needs a stable and peaceful external environment to meet its ambitious economic target of becoming a wealthy nation by 2045, with consistent double-digit rates of growth.

越南需要一个稳定、和平的外部环境，才能实现其雄心勃勃的经济目标——以持续两位数的增长速度，在2045年前跻身富裕国家行列。

“Trade, finance, tariffs, energy, food, data and technology risk being used as tools of pressure,” he said. He stressed that distrust and a lack of respect for established rules has created a culture of “the big fish swallowing the small fish.”

他说，“贸易、金融、关税、能源、粮食、数据和技术有被用作施压工具的风险。”他强调，不信任和对既有定规则的漠视已催生出一种“大鱼吃小鱼”的文化。

The war in Iran and tensions along the Strait of Hormuz, he added, show how conflict in one hot spot can reshape and damage trade, energy and socioeconomic life in other countries far away.

他还表示，伊朗战争及霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势表明，一个热点地区的冲突能够重塑并损害远方其他国家的贸易、能源与社会经济生活。

He implied that something similar could happen in Asia, where Vietnam and many of its neighbors have expressed growing concern about escalating Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

他暗示，类似情形在亚洲同样可能发生——越南及其许多邻国对中国在南中国海日益强硬的姿态表达了越来越多的担忧。

China, which claims most of the waterway as its own, has accelerated building artificial islands just beyond Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. Vietnam is also expanding construction on reefs and outposts nearby.

中国宣称对这里的大部分海域拥有主权，并加快了在越南专属经济区外侧建造人工岛屿的步伐。与此同时，越南也正在附近的礁石和前哨据点扩大建设规模

Between a quarter and a third of global maritime commerce flows through the South China Sea’s choke points.

全球四分之一至三分之一的海上贸易要途经南中国海的咽喉要道。

越南平阳省一家家具厂，摄于2025年。

Vietnam has a dual challenge: It needs its own disputes with both superpowers to stay manageable, and for the United States and China to coexist without sudden moves — on trade or with threats from their powerful militaries — that could damage its economic trajectory.

越南面临双重挑战：一方面，它需要确保自己与两个超级大国之间的争端保持在可控范围内；另一方面，它也需要美中能够和平共存，避免在贸易或强大军事力量的威胁上采取突然行动，从而损害越南的经济发展。

So far, Vietnam is still benefiting from the global movement of manufacturers away from China, to protect exports to the United States from high tariffs.

到目前为止，越南仍在从制造商为规避对美出口高额关税影响而从中国迁出的全球趋势中获益。

But its position is precarious. China is its largest trading partner, an increasingly large foreign investor, and the United States is its main market for the exports that have pushed Vietnam’s growth rates higher than anywhere else in Southeast Asia.

但其所处位置颇为微妙。中国是越南最大贸易伙伴，也是日益重要的外国投资来源地，而美国则是推动越南经济增长跃居东南亚之首的出口产品的主要市场。

Mr. Lam has sought to bolster relationships with both. But the White House has been more distant, with President Trump ignoring Vietnam’s repeated requests for a meeting, even after Mr. Lam visited Beijing this year, signing a series of agreements with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Some observers believe Vietnam has tilted toward China under Mr. Lam.

苏林一直试图加强与双方的关系。但白宫态度相对冷淡，即便苏林今年访问北京，并与习近平签署了一系列协议之后，美国总统特朗普仍未回应越南多次提出的会面请求。一些观察人士认为，在苏林领导下，越南的外交重心已经向中国倾斜。

Vietnamese officials and analysts insist that is only part of the story. Vietnam has also moved closer to countries that are wary of China, building economic and defense ties with South Korea, Japan, India and others, while also purchasing American military equipment, including C-130 transport planes.

不过，越南官员和分析人士坚持认为，这只是事情的一面。越南同时也在向那些对中国保持警惕的国家靠拢，加强与韩国、日本、印度等国的经济和防务合作，同时采购包括C-130运输机在内的美国军事装备。

Representative Gregory Meeks, a Democrat from New York and the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who was in Singapore Friday after visiting Vietnam, said Washington was still assessing whether more military sales to Hanoi are possible.

周五在新加坡出席香格里拉对话会之前刚刚访问过越南的纽约州民主党众议员、众议院外交事务委员会资深成员格雷戈里·米克斯表示，华盛顿仍在评估是否可能向河内出售更多军事装备。

Analysts said Mr. Lam’s appearance at Shangri-La highlighted his desire for Vietnam to be seen as a pragmatic, neutral partner.

分析人士表示，苏林出席香格里拉对话凸显了他希望越南被视为务实、中立伙伴的意愿。

“He is trying to present himself as the leader of an emerging power, a power that needs to navigate in the time when neither of the major powers are reassuring, neither China nor U.S.,” said Huong Le Thu, deputy director of the Asia program at the International Crisis Group.

“他正试图将自己展现为一个新兴大国的领导人，它需要在两个大国——无论是中国还是美国——都无法让人感到安心的时代里寻找出路，”国际危机组织亚洲项目副主任黄乐秋表示。

Vietnam, Ms. Huong added, joins a “‘league’ of countries in the region that are not passively waiting for the new regional or global order to be shaped — they want to take an active role.”

她补充说，越南加入了一个“区域国家联盟——这些国家不愿被动等待新的地区秩序或全球秩序形成，而是希望主动参与其中”。

Kaja Kallas, the top European Union diplomat, recently suggested that ending the continent’s dependence on China was like trying to cure a disease. “Chemotherapy” might be needed, she said, and it was likely to be painful.

欧盟最高外交官卡娅·卡拉斯最近表示，结束欧洲对中国的依赖就像是尝试治愈一种疾病。她说，可能需要用到“化疗”，而且过程很可能会充满痛苦。

The comments were an example of the tone Europe is increasingly taking on China, the second-largest goods trading partner for the 27-nation European Union, after the United States.

这些言论是欧洲对中国态度日益强硬的一个例子。对由27个国家组成的欧盟而言，中国是仅次于美国的第二大商品贸易伙伴。

As Beijing adopts more aggressive trade policies and as imports from China into Europe soar, European leaders and companies are fretting over their reliance on Chinese products — and debating how to pull back. With China only growing more dominant in manufacturing, Europe sees an existential threat to its own industries.

随着北京采取更具攻击性的贸易政策、从中国进口的商品激增，欧洲领导人和企业正为其对中国产品的依赖而感到焦虑——并讨论如何抽身。中国在制造业中的主导地位不断增强，欧洲看到了对其自身产业的存亡威胁。

“The tone is basically panic,” said Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Bruegel, an economic think tank in Brussels. “There’s a sense of imminent collapse of industry, of imminent danger.”

“这种语气基本上就是一种恐慌，”布鲁塞尔经济智库布鲁盖尔研究所所长杰罗敏·泽塔米尔表示。“人们有一种工业即将崩溃，危险迫在眉睫的感觉。”

Anxiety in Brussels is being met with hostility in Beijing, where officials warn that China will hit back at any protective measures. The sparring is likely to heat up further in the coming weeks.

布鲁塞尔的焦虑引发了北京的敌意，中国官员警告称，中国将对任何保护性措施予以回击。这种博弈在未来几周很可能会进一步升级。

World leaders will talk about global economic imbalances at a Group of 7 meeting in Evian, France, next month. China is then expected to be on the agenda at a meeting of the European Union’s 27 top leaders shortly after.

各国领导人将于下个月在法国埃维昂举行的七国集团会议上讨论全球经济失衡问题。此后不久的欧盟27国最高领导人会议上，中国预计将成为议题。

On Friday, the European Union’s executive arm is expected to have an early debate on policies toward China that could help to set the tone for the coming discussions.

预计欧盟执行机构将于周五就对华政策进行初步辩论，这可能有助于为即将到来的讨论定下基调。

European officials still express hope that they might be able to work cooperatively with China to alter trade imbalances, which have become more pronounced as Beijing has dialed up exports to juice economic growth. But they are also mulling more powerful trade and industrial measures to curb China’s growing dominance in sensitive fields.

欧洲官员仍表示希望能够与中国开展合作以改变贸易失衡，随着北京通过加大出口来刺激经济增长，这种失衡已变得更加显著。但他们还在酝酿更强有力的贸易和工业措施，以遏制中国在敏感领域日益增强的主导地位。

Cutting back on China could prove profoundly tricky for Europe. Politicians and businesses fear retaliation, and consumers are hooked on what China is selling. Europeans continue to snap up cheaper Chinese goods, especially electric vehicles, which the European Union has already tried, unsuccessfully, to stop from flooding their market.

对欧洲而言，事实可能会证明削减对中国的依赖是件极其棘手的事。政治人士和企业害怕遭受报复，而消费者已经对中国销售的产品产生了依赖。欧洲人继续抢购更便宜的中国商品，尤其是电动汽车，欧盟此前曾试图阻止这些商品涌入其市场，但未能成功。

2月，中国快时尚零售商Shein在法国西部昂热市的门店的开业。对于欧洲而言，减少对中国商品的依赖可能极其棘手。

“We’re not in a good place,” said Rebecca Arcesati, who is based in Brussels for the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a think tank. She noted that European leaders need to contend with voters and with more short-term political considerations — and that makes it hard to counter the flow from China, especially if Beijing retaliates.

“我们的处境不妙，”智库墨卡托中国研究中心驻布鲁塞尔分析师丽贝卡·阿尔切萨蒂表示。她指出，欧洲领导人需要应对选民以及更多短期的政治考量——这使得抗衡来自中国的商品流变得困难，尤其是如果北京采取报复行动的话。

“Our systems were not designed to contend with such a challenge,” Ms. Arcesati said.

阿尔切萨蒂说：“我们的体制本身就不是为了应对这样一种挑战而设计的。”

China has government subsidies and programs that have strengthened the position of the country’s factories and companies. The government in Beijing has leaned on industry after a property crisis left policymakers needing another engine for growth. And as American tariffs made exporting to the United States more complicated for Chinese producers, those factories increased their exports to markets like Europe.

中国拥有政府补贴和项目，这些举措强化了本国工厂和企业的地位。在一场房地产危机使得政策制定者需要另一个增长引擎后，北京方面开始倚重工业。此外，由于美国关税给中国生产商向美国出口制造了困难，这些工厂增加了对欧洲等市场的出口。

In the first quarter of this year, imports from China into Europe jumped sharply. An analysis of 2026 customs data by the online newsletter Soapbox and the Mercator Institute for China Studies found that China’s trade imbalance with the European Union reached record levels early this year as electric vehicles flooded in.

今年第一季度，从中国进口到欧洲的商品急剧上升。网络通讯Soapbox和墨卡托中国研究中心对2026年海关数据进行的一项分析发现，随着电动汽车的大量涌入，中国与欧盟的贸易失衡在今年年初达到了创纪录的水平。

The jump came as Chinese carmakers faced slumping demand at home and pushed into Europe. At the same time, European consumers turned to greener alternatives as the war in the Middle East pushed up fuel prices.

这一激增发生在中国汽车制造商面临国内需求下滑并大举进入欧洲之际。与此同时，随着中东战争推高了加油站的汽油价格，欧洲消费者转向了更环保的替代选择。

That followed a trade deficit in goods in 2025 of about $418 billion, based on E.U. figures.

根据欧盟的数据，在此之前2025年的商品贸易逆差约为4180亿美元。

The combination is threatening European manufacturers and their employees, especially in places like Germany, which has traditionally been a big car and chemical manufacturer and is now struggling to compete.

在两者的共同作用下，欧洲制造商及其员工备受威胁，特别是在德国等地。作为汽车和化学品的传统制造大国，德国在目前的竞争中处境艰难。

As worries mount, Europe has turned to harsher rhetoric and bolder ideas.

随着担忧加剧，欧洲转向了更严厉的措辞和更大胆的想法。

2月，在德国埃姆登市的一家大众电动汽车工厂。该国是汽车和化工品传统制造大国，如今却在艰难应对竞争。

Emmanuel Macron, the French president and long a China critic, has called on the European Union to create measures that protect strategic industries, similar to ones that the United States has and uses.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙长期以来一直是中国的批评者，他已呼吁欧盟制定保护战略工业的措施，类似于美国所拥有并使用的措施。

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister who is often seen as one of the more Beijing-friendly leaders in Europe, said during a recent trip to Beijing that the continent needed China “to open up so that Europe does not have to close itself off.”

西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯在欧洲经常被视为对北京最友好的领导人之一，他在最近的一次访问中表示，欧洲大陆需要中国“敞开大门，这样欧洲才不必将自己封闭起来”。

Spain joined France, Italy, Lithuania and the Netherlands recently in preparing a paper urging the European Union to respond aggressively, including with new trade tools. While the paper did not single out China by name, it criticized trading partners with “systemic and structural industrial overcapacity.”

西班牙最近加入了法国、意大利、立陶宛和荷兰的行列，共同准备了一份文件，敦促欧盟做出激进的回应，包括使用新的贸易工具。虽然该文件没有点名中国，但批评了存在“系统性和结构性工业产能过剩”的贸易伙伴。

Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, said that many European leaders have to tread lightly with China out of fear of retaliation. But, he added, their fear of manufacturing losses may come to outweigh that, including in places like Germany.

智库美国外交关系协会经济学家布拉德·塞瑟表示，许多欧洲领导人由于害怕遭到报复，不得不小心翼翼地对待中国。但他补充说，他们对制造业流失的恐惧可能会压倒这一点，包括在德国等地。

Europe is already taking some steps to protect itself, including with the European Union’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, a wide-ranging policy meant to rebuild the bloc’s manufacturing base. The plan’s design would effectively bar Chinese companies from benefiting from some key subsidies, helping European-made electric vehicles, in particular.

欧洲已经采取了一些措施来保护自己，包括欧盟提议的《工业加速器法案》，这是一项旨在重建欧盟制造业基础的广泛政策。该计划的设计将有效阻止中国企业从某些关键补贴中获益，从而特别有助于欧洲制造的电动汽车。

That policy has been met with outrage from Beijing, which has denounced the plan as protectionist and warned of retaliation.

该政策遭到了北京方面的愤怒反对，北京指责其为保护主义并警告将进行报复。

But China’s own increasingly aggressive stance on trade has helped the European backlash to intensify.

但中国自身在贸易上日益强势的姿态，有助于让欧洲的反弹势头加剧。

Last year, China twice prohibited exports of rare-earth minerals and magnets in retaliation to American tariffs. The bans hit Europe, which uses both materials in high-tech and green-energy production.

去年，中国曾两次禁止稀土矿物和磁铁的出口，以报复美国的关税。这些禁令打击了欧洲，欧洲在高级技术和绿色能源生产中都需要使用这两种材料。

The breakdown in supply laid bare to European companies just how dependent they were.

供应链的崩溃让欧洲企业清楚地看到它们究竟有多么依赖中国。

去年，位于中国东部省份江西的一家稀土加工厂。这些材料对高科技产业至关重要。

In April, Beijing unveiled rules giving officials power to examine corporate records, interrogate employees and even prevent executives from leaving China if they were determined to be helping to move supply chains out of the country.

4月，北京公布新规，赋予官员审查公司记录、审问员工乃至阻止高管离开中国的权力，如果这些高管被认定正在协助将供应链迁出中国的话。

According to a recent assessment by the European Chamber of Commerce in China, that move “could now inflict an unprecedented level of damage on Europe’s economy.”

根据中国欧盟商会最近的一项评估，此举“目前可能会对欧洲经济造成前所未有程度的破坏”。

China’s pushback has come partly because Beijing senses a less unified front against its trade policies as Washington and Brussels spar, said Noah Barkin, an expert on European-Chinese relations for the Rhodium Group, a research firm.

研究机构荣鼎集团欧中关系专家诺亚·巴尔金表示，中国的反击部分是因为，在北京看来，随着华盛顿和布鲁塞尔发生争执，对抗其贸易政策的阵线已经不那么统一。

Beijing’s “message to Europe is: ‘Your “Best Friend Forever” is gone and even the Americans are seeking stability with us, so don’t test us,’” Mr. Barkin said.

巴尔金说，北京“向欧洲传达的信息是：‘你们的“死党”已经不复存在，甚至连美国人都在寻求与我们保持稳定，所以别来挑衅我们。’”

Anthropic, once the lesser-known artificial intelligence competitor to OpenAI, has been on an inexorable rise over the past few months.

曾几何时，Anthropic还是OpenAI的一个名气较小的人工智能竞争对手，但在过去几个月里，该公司的崛起势不可挡。

The San Francisco company recently dueled with the Pentagon over the use of A.I. in warfare. It released a powerful A.I. model, Mythos, that it said was uncannily capable of finding and exploiting hidden flaws in software. And the company advised Pope Leo XIV on his papal encyclical delivered on Monday, in which he warned about safeguarding humanity from A.I.’s most disruptive effects.

这家总部位于旧金山的公司最近因在战争中使用人工智能的问题与五角大楼发生冲突。它发布了一款强大的人工智能模型Mythos，并宣称该模型在发现和利用软件中隐藏的缺陷方面具有不可思议的能力。此外，该公司还为良十四世教宗周一发表的通谕提供了建议，教宗在通谕中警告称，要保护人类免受人工智能最具颠覆性影响的冲击。

On Thursday, Anthropic punctuated its ascent by officially passing OpenAI as the world’s highest-flying A.I. start-up. Anthropic said it had raised $65 billion in financing that values it at $900 billion before the inclusion of the new capital, a deal that puts it ahead of OpenAI’s last valuation of $730 billion. The company also unveiled a new flagship A.I. model, Claude Opus 4.8, which is significantly better than its predecessor at generating computer code.

周四，Anthropic正式超越OpenAI成为全球最瞩目的人工智能初创公司，为自己的崛起画上了一个惊叹号。Anthropic表示，它已获得了650亿美元的融资，使其在计入新资本前的估值达到了9000亿美元，超过了OpenAI的上一次估值7300亿美元。该公司还推出了全新旗舰人工智能模型Claude Opus 4.8，在生成计算机代码方面的表现明显优于其前代产品。

The new investment, which was led by investors including Greenoaks Capital, Sequoia Capital, Altimeter Capital and Dragoneer Investment Group, boosted Anthropic’s value to nearly two and a half times its previous valuation of $380 billion about three months ago.

这笔新投资由格林奥克斯资本、红杉资本、阿尔蒂米特资本和德拉戈尼尔投资集团等投资者领投，将Anthropic的价值提升至近两倍半，约三个月前这一数字为3800亿美元。

The funding underlined the company’s success in developing A.I. technology that excels in writing software code, which has turned into a robust business. Since Anthropic improved its A.I. coding technology in November, hundreds of businesses have signed up to pay for the software. The company said its “revenue run rate,” which is its expected revenue for the year based on its current performance, crossed $47 billion this month.

这笔融资凸显了Anthropic在开发精于编写软件代码的人工智能技术方面取得的成功，该技术已演变成一项强劲的业务。自从Anthropic在11月改进了其人工智能编程技术以来，数以百计的企业已经签约付费使用该软件。该公司表示，其“收入运营率”（即根据当前表现预计的年度收入）在本月突破了470亿美元。

“This funding will help us serve the historic demand we are experiencing, stay at the research frontier and bring Claude to more of the places where work happens,” said Krishna Rao, Anthropic’s chief financial officer.

“这笔资金将帮助我们满足我们正在经历的历史性需求，保持在研究的最前沿，并将Claude带到更多正在开展工作的地方，”Anthropic首席财务官克里希纳·拉奥说。

Anthropic’s trajectory stands out, even amid a heated frenzy over A.I. Just 62 days ago, OpenAI — which had kicked off the A.I. boom with its release of the ChatGPT chatbot in 2022 — announced it had raised $122 billion in a funding round that put its value at $730 billion, a number that it took roughly a decade to achieve. Anthropic, which was founded in 2021, has surpassed that in half the time.

即使在对人工智能的一片狂热之中，Anthropic的发展轨迹依然脱颖而出。就在62天前，OpenAI（其在2022年发布的ChatGPT聊天机器人掀起了人工智能热潮）宣布在一轮融资中募集了1220亿美元，使其估值达到7300亿美元，公司用了大约十年才达成这样一个数字，但被成立于2021年的Anthropic用了不到一半的时间超越。

The company’s momentum has gathered steam in recent months as Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s chief executive, has spoken out about the potential dangers of A.I. and called for regulation of the technology. That led to a bitter fight with the Pentagon over how A.I. should be used in warfare, among other public imbroglios.

随着Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊公开谈论人工智能的潜在危险并呼吁对该技术进行监管，该公司的势头在最近几个月里进一步增强。由此引发了一系列公开的纠纷，包括与五角大楼就人工智能应如何在战争中使用展开的激烈争吵。

Anthropic’s rise only adds to its contest with OpenAI and Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the private companies race to go public.

Anthropic的崛起只会加剧它与OpenAI以及埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX的竞争，这两家私营公司正在加紧其上市操作。

Last week, SpaceX revealed its public offering prospectus and is expected to reach the stock market as soon as next month. OpenAI also plans to file confidentially for an initial public offering in the coming weeks. Anthropic insiders have said the company was also considering an I.P.O. that could come as soon as this year, though the company has declined to comment.

上周，SpaceX公布了招股书，预计最早将于下个月进入股票市场。OpenAI也计划在未来几周内秘密提交首次公开募股申请。Anthropic内部人士表示，该公司也在考虑进行首次公开募股，可能最早在今年进行，不过公司拒绝置评。

The battle is far from over. Facing pressure from Anthropic, OpenAI has trimmed side projects in favor of prioritizing work on its own coding software, called Codex. SpaceX recently entered an agreement to buy Cursor, a software coding interface popular with developers, and has agreed to sell some computing power to Anthropic.

这场战斗远未结束。面对来自Anthropic的压力，OpenAI已经削减了边缘项目，转而优先开发自己的编程软件Codex。SpaceX最近达成了一项购买Cursor的协议，Cursor是一款深受开发者欢迎的软件编码界面，此外SpaceX已同意向Anthropic出售部分算力。

A spokesman for OpenAI declined to comment. Mr. Musk did not respond to a request for comment.

OpenAI发言人拒绝置评。马斯克没有回应置评请求。

In its latest funding, Anthropic brought in new strategic investors including Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix, companies that build storage, memory and logic chips that are crucial to the development of A.I. In a blog post, Anthropic said these strategic partners would help boost the company’s computing power as demand for Claude Code grew.

在其最新一轮融资中，Anthropic引入了包括三星、美光和SK海力士在内的新战略投资者，这些公司制造存储设备、内存和逻辑芯片，这些芯片对人工智能的发展至关重要。在一篇博客文章中，Anthropic表示，随着对Claude Code的需求增长，这些战略合作伙伴将有助于提升其算力。

Anthropic has now raised more than $130 billion since it was established, according to PitchBook, which tracks start-ups. Its roster of investors includes Capital Group, Menlo Ventures, Iconiq Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, as well as tech giants like Amazon and Google.

根据追踪初创公司的PitchBook的数据，Anthropic自成立以来已募集了超过1300亿美元。它的投资者名单包括资本集团、门罗创投、艾科尼克资本和光速创投，此外还有亚马逊和谷歌等科技巨头。

Anthropic’s new Claude Opus 4.8 outperforms all other publicly available A.I. technologies on vibecoding, which is when A.I. technologies create software in response to prompts written in conversational English. Opus 4.8 scored 10 percent higher on the vibecoding benchmark test from Vals AI, a company that tracks the performance of the latest A.I. technologies, compared with the previous Anthropic model, said Rayan Krishnan, the chief executive of Vals AI.

Anthropic新推出的Claude Opus 4.8在“氛围编程”方面表现超越了所有其他公开可用的人工智能技术。氛围编码是指人工智能技术根据用口语化英语编写的提示词来创建软件。追踪最新人工智能技术表现的公司Vals AI的首席执行官拉扬·克里希南表示，在Vals AI的氛围编程基准测试中，Opus 4.8的得分比之前的Anthropic模型高出10%。

The new model also outperformed its predecessor in mathematics, another area where the leading A.I. technologies continue to improve by leaps and bounds.

这款新模型在数学方面的表现也超越了其前代产品，数学是领先的人工智能技术继续突飞猛进的另一个领域。

(The New York Times has sued OpenAI and its partner, Microsoft, accusing them of copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. OpenAI and Microsoft have denied those claims.)

（《纽约时报》已对OpenAI及其合作伙伴微软提起诉讼，指控它们侵犯了人工智能系统相关新闻内容的版权。OpenAI和微软否认了这些指控。）

U.S. Route 66, the Mother Road of novels, songs and movies and the highway that ran parallel with America’s postwar boom years, is celebrating its 100th anniversary. Driving it in 2026, you wouldn’t necessarily know that festivities were in order.

无数小说、歌曲与电影中的“母亲之路”——美国66号公路是一条与美国战后繁荣岁月并行的公路，如今它正迎来100周年纪念。如果你在2026年驱车行驶在这条路上，未必能意识到这里正举行庆祝活动。

The arrival of jet travel and the birth of the federal interstate program in 1956 led to a marked decline in traffic, followed by decades of neglect. Though it has long since lost its former luster, Route 66 remains a monument to its past and to the freedom and opportunity it once stood for in a nation migrating westward.

喷气式飞机旅行的到来以及1956年联邦州际公路计划的诞生导致公路沿线交通流量显著下降，随后便是数十年的沉寂与忽视。尽管它早已失去了往日的光彩，但66号公路依然是一座丰碑，铭刻着它的过去，也铭刻着它在一个一路向西迁徙的国家中曾代表的自由与机遇。

Today, Route 66 is a dusty museum that wends its way lazily through eight states, from Chicago to Santa Monica, Calif. Along the way is a gallery of idiosyncratic Americana highlighting the nation’s first motorized century.

如今，66号公路就像一座落满尘土的博物馆，慵懒地在八个州蜿蜒而过，从芝加哥一直延伸到加利福尼亚州的圣莫尼卡。沿途如同一条画廊，展现着风情独特的美式风物，生动展现了这个国家首个汽车世纪的风貌。

Though completists might wish to traverse every one of its 2,448 miles, I set out for four days and three nights to explore part of it with some fellow road-tripping history buffs: David Brancaccio, a former host and now a correspondent for “Marketplace” on public radio, and John Krafcik, a former chief of Hyundai North America and of Waymo, the robotaxi venture.

尽管完美主义者可能希望走完它全部的2448英里（约合3940公里），但我还是计划用四天三夜的时间，与几位热爱公路旅行的历史爱好者一起探索其中的一部分。他们是：公共广播电台《市场》节目的前主持人、现任记者戴维·布兰卡乔，以及现代汽车北美公司和无人驾驶出租车初创公司Waymo的前首席执行官约翰·科拉夫奇克。

The tarmac trail on which Dust Bowl farmers and hundreds of thousands of others emigrated to California from points East serves now as a captivating trip through time.

这条柏油路曾见证了“尘暴”(Dust Bowl)时期的农民以及其他数十万人从东部迁徙到加利福尼亚州，如今已成为一条引人入胜的时光隧道。

We started from the road’s western terminus at the Santa Monica Pier, aiming for Albuquerque. For our nearly 900-mile journey east, we chose four vehicles, each representing a moment in automotive history.

我们从公路位于圣莫尼卡码头的西端终点出发，目的地是阿尔伯克基。在这段近1400公里的向东旅程中，我们选择了四辆车，每辆车都代表了汽车历史上的一个特定时刻。

Our larger mission was clear: assessing the health of the old road while comparing the technologies that have powered our mobile society for over 100 years.

我们更宏大的使命非常明确：评估这条老路的健康状况，同时对比100多年来驱动我们社会汽车交通发展的各项技术。

Day 1

第一天

We kicked things off in a Waymo, an autonomous electric Jaguar I-Pace. This is the future, we are told, and we don’t doubt it.

我们首先体验的是Waymo的自动驾驶电动捷豹I-Pace。人们说这就是未来，我们对此深信不疑。

Our first destination is close, Mr. Krafcik’s home, to swap rides and venture back into the past, picking up his mint-green 1966 Oldsmobile 4-4-2, a two-door muscle car with a full-throated V8. This long, handsome coupe was considered midsize in its day.

我们的第一个目的地很近——科拉夫奇克的家。我们要在那里换乘车辆，驶回过去。我们换上了他那辆薄荷绿色的1966年款奥兹莫比尔4-4-2。这是一辆拥有低沉轰鸣 V8发动机的双门肌肉车。这款修长俊朗的双门轿跑车当年被归类为中型车。

Next up is a bold step into the future with Mr. Brancaccio’s hybrid 2017 Chevrolet Volt, an early EREV (extended range electric vehicle), which uses a “stationary” gas engine to charge its batteries, rather than to power the driven front wheels. Though the Volt has sadly gone out of production, its technology is lately being revisited.

接下来，我们将驾驶布兰卡乔的2017款雪佛兰沃蓝达混合动力车，大胆地迈向未来。这是一款早期的增程式电动车(EREV)，它的“固定式”燃油发动机为电池充电，而不是直接驱动前轮。尽管沃蓝达已遗憾停产，但它的技术最近正重新受到关注。

旅程的第一段由汽车自动驾驶：加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡的Waymo出租车。此次自驾游的主力座驾是一辆Rivian电动SUV。

Finally, for the bulk of our driving, was Mr. Krafcik’s all-electric Rivian R1S sport utility vehicle.

最后，承担我们大部分路程驾驶的是科拉夫奇克的纯电动Rivian R1S运动型多用途汽车。

A New World miracle in its heyday, Route 66 is undoubtedly older and sadder, but possibly wiser; a crossroad of history, where intense isolation was (and remains) tempered by a slow but steady influx of strangers passing through.

在其鼎盛时期曾被称为新世界奇迹的66号公路如今无疑变得更苍老、更落寞，但也或许变得更睿智；它是历史的十字路口，在这里，曾经且至今依然极为强烈的孤立感被源源不断通过的缓缓陌生人流所冲淡。

Day 2

第二天

We rise early, emerging from the Wigwam Motel in San Bernardino, where each room is its own concrete tepee. Erected in 1949, it reminds us that gaudy nostalgia has been drawing people to the highway for decades.

我们早早起床，走出位于圣贝纳迪诺的威格瓦姆汽车旅馆，这里的每个房间都是一个独立的混凝土印第安帐篷。这座建于1949年的旅馆提醒着我们，几十年来，这种花哨的怀旧风情一直吸引着人们来到这条公路。

After charging the Rivian at a nearby station, we stop for a good breakfast at Peggy Sue’s ’50s Diner in Yermo. Built along the roadside in 1954, it fell on hard times only to reopen in 1987 as a ’50s-themed restaurant.

在附近的一个充电站给Rivian充好电后，我们在耶尔莫的“佩吉·苏50年代美式餐厅”停下来吃了一顿丰盛的早餐。该餐厅于1954年建在路边，曾一度陷入困境，直到1987年才以50年代主题餐厅的名义重新开业。

Filled today with its owner’s collection of memorabilia from old television programs and films, the place exudes a double layer of nostalgia — for the highway’s buoyant days (which no one can remember) and the public’s fascination with the 1950s.

如今，店内摆满了老板收藏的老电视节目和电影纪念品，散发着双重怀旧气息——既是对这条公路曾经充满活力时期的怀念（尽管现在已无人记得），也是对公众对20世纪50年代迷恋的写照。

Onward. In Newberry Springs, deep in the Mojave Desert, sits the Sidewinder Cafe, which Matt Parker bought in 2023. Some will know it as the setting for the 1987 film “Bagdad Cafe.”

继续前行。莫哈韦沙漠深处的纽伯里斯普林斯坐落着响尾蛇咖啡馆，马特·帕克于 2023 年买下了它。有些人可能知道，这里是1987年电影《巴格达咖啡馆》(Bagdad Café)的取景地。

It is no surprise that the interstate, with its busier traffic, is more flush with charge points. Rivian’s branded charging network — the Rivian Adventure Network, which numbers among its sites over 21,000 Tesla Superchargers that can be used with an adapter — proved refreshingly usable.

毫无疑问，交通更繁忙的州际公路拥有更密集的充电桩。Rivian的品牌充电网络——“Rivian冒险网络”站点中拥有超过21000个可通过适配器使用的特斯拉超级充电桩，便捷性令人耳目一新。

We also found ourselves impressed by the new charging stations set up by Ionna, a joint venture among numerous automakers.

我们也对由众多汽车制造商成立的合资企业Ionna建立的新充电站印象深刻。

位于加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺市66号公路旁的威格瓦姆汽车旅馆。几十年来，这条古老的公路一直唤起人们对往昔时光的怀念。威格瓦姆汽车旅馆出售的纪念品。通车100周年之际，驾车行驶在这条公路上的司机未必会意识到正在举行庆祝活动。

We arrive in Amboy, Calif., and Roy’s Motel and Café — built in the 1940s as a garage to fix travelers’ cars at a spot where its founder, Roy Crowl, once broke down. It’s a historic site on the National Trails Highway of U.S. Route 66, but the motel is not open, though it may return, said Nicole Rachel, who was working behind the counter the day we passed by and was happy to chat.

我们抵达了加利福尼亚州安博伊的罗伊汽车旅馆与咖啡馆——它建于20世纪40年代，最初是一家修理游客车辆的汽车修理厂，其创始人罗伊·克劳尔曾在这个地方抛锚过。这是美国66号公路国家步道公路上的一个历史遗迹，但旅馆目前并未营业。不过，在我们经过那天，正在柜台后工作、并且很乐意聊天的妮可·蕾切尔说，它可能会重新开张。

Ms. Rachel, who once lived on Route 66 in Missouri, said Amboy was the “coolest part of Route 66, and not because I work here.” She added: “I think that we’re finally on the upswing. It’s finally gotten to the point. Generationally, things come back. Like bell bottoms come back every decade.”

蕾切尔女士曾在密苏里州的66号公路沿线生活，她说安博伊是“66号公路上最酷的地方，这可不是因为我在这里工作”。她还说：“我认为我们终于在走上坡路了。终于到了这个节点。从世代更替的角度来看，风潮总会轮回。就像喇叭裤每十年就会流行回来一样。”

Day 3

第三天

After a long trip to Williams, Ariz., we awaken early at the Historic Grand Canyon Hotel. Opened in 1891 and billed as “Arizona’s Oldest Hotel,” it feels old but boutique-y, though it is nowhere near the famous canyon.

经过漫长的旅程抵达亚利桑那州威廉姆斯后，我们在历史大峡谷酒店早早醒来。这家酒店于1891年开业，被誉为“亚利桑那州最古老的酒店”，感觉很有年代感，又带有些许精品酒店的格调，尽管它其实离著名的大峡谷还很远。

Vicki Conklin, working the front desk, explained that the quaint, vaguely upscale town of Williams, with little of the hardscrabble feel we’d grown accustomed to, plays host to a railroad that takes travelers on a roughly two-hour ride up to the canyon in vintage rail cars pulled by steam locomotives. Once again, tourism and nostalgia play a big role helping support what appears to be a more prosperous community than most we’d see.

在前台工作的维基·康克林解释说，威廉姆斯这座古朴而隐约透露出高档气息的小镇几乎没有我们已经习惯的那种艰苦破败感。这里运营着一条铁路，用蒸汽机车牵引着复古车厢，载着游客行驶大约两个小时，直达大峡谷。在这里，旅游业和怀旧情结再次发挥了巨大作用，支撑起这个看起来比我们沿途见的绝大多数社区都要繁荣的城镇。

“Europeans, especially, they’re so interested in the West, it is amazing,” Ms. Conklin said. “Some travel all the way to Santa Monica from Chicago, all the way. They’re so interested. And then the Grand Canyon just is awe-inspiring. The American tourists love it just as much.”

“尤其是欧洲人，他们对美国西部太感兴趣了，这简直太神奇了，”康克林说。“有些人一路从芝加哥原道而来，直奔圣莫尼卡。他们真的太有兴趣了。而且大峡谷本身也令人赞叹。美国游客也同样热爱它。”

During our last night — in Gallup, N.M., at the El Rancho Hotel — we get our final blast of nostalgia as the lodging celebrates its Hollywood ties. Among the many films shot or set nearby: “The Grapes of Wrath,” from the John Steinbeck novel that first identified the highway as the Mother Road, along with “Touch of Evil,” “Easy Rider,” “Natural Born Killers,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Cars.”

我们的最后一晚在新墨西哥州盖洛普的埃尔兰乔酒店度过，在这家以同好莱坞的渊源为荣的旅馆，我们感受到了最后一波怀旧狂潮。在附近拍摄或以此地为背景的众多电影包括：改编自约翰·斯坦贝克小说的《愤怒的葡萄》（The Grapes of Wrath，该小说首次将这条公路称为“母亲之路”），以及《历劫佳人》(Touch of Evil)、《逍遥骑士》(Easy Rider)、《天生杀人狂》(Natural Born Killers)、《阳光小美女》(Little Miss Sunshine)和《赛车总动员》(Cars)。

Exciting us even more was a carnitas dinner at Jerry’s Café, a bit off the highway in downtown Gallup, surely the road trip’s best meal.

更让我们兴奋的是在杰里咖啡馆吃的墨西哥卡尼塔斯晚餐，它位于盖洛普市中心，稍微偏离了公路，这绝对是这次公路旅行中最棒的一餐。

Day 4

第四天

66号公路是一座布满尘埃的美国风情画廊，展现了这个国家汽车世纪初期的独特风貌。奥兹莫比尔的仪表盘。这条高速公路曾象征着一个向西迁徙的民族所拥有的自由与机遇。旅游业和怀旧情怀在支撑66号公路沿线的商业活动中发挥着重要作用。

We head out early for Albuquerque, to the Ancora Cafe. After breakfast burritos, Mr. Brancaccio and I spoke with Daniel Sullivan, who moved from Illinois and volunteers at the cafe, which provides job training to people in recovery and others.

我们一早出发前往阿尔伯克基，前往安可拉咖啡馆。吃过早餐卷饼后，布兰卡乔和我与丹尼尔·沙利文聊了聊。他从伊利诺伊州搬来，目前在这家咖啡馆做志愿者，该咖啡馆为康复期人员及其他群体提供工作技能培训。

Mr. Sullivan, who also coaches a football team for at-risk youths, has strong feelings about the road we’ve spent the last few days traveling, as it was the route he took to escape an alcoholic parent back in the Midwest.

沙利文还担任一支针对问题青少年的橄榄球队教练，他对我们过去几天走过的这条路有着强烈的感情，因为当年他正是沿着这条路线逃离了中西部那个酗酒的亲人。

“I think if more of today’s generation knew about Route 66 and the culture of how it got built before the I-40, seeing that small-town culture, seeing all those businesses that were booming at one time, the unique architecture — which are basically just abandoned buildings now — if we could bring them back to life, bring that culture and happiness back, that will bring more tourists here,” he said. He ticked off states along the route: “Oklahoma, Missouri, into Texas, that’s a beautiful sight,” he added, “a beautiful drive.”

“我认为，如果现在更多年轻一代了解66号公路，了解它在40号州际公路建成之前的建造文化，看到那种小镇文化，看到曾经繁荣的商铺，还有如今基本都已废弃的独特建筑——如果我们能让它们重焕生机，带回那种文化和快乐，那将会吸引更多的游客来到这里，”他说。他一一数出沿途的几个州：“俄克拉荷马州、密苏里州，再到得克萨斯州，那是极其美丽的风光，”他说。“一段美丽的自驾之旅。”

Naval blockades, military history has shown, require patience. That is not the leading attribute of the American commander in chief.

军事史告诉我们，海上封锁需要耐心。而这恰恰不是这位美国三军统帅最突出的品质。

So when President Trump imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in April, the quick result he was looking for — a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic — was not in the cards. Wearing down an enemy with a blockade can take months or years, military experts say, and certainly not weeks.

因此，当特朗普总统在4月对伊朗港口实施封锁时，他想要的立竿见影效果——让霍尔木兹海峡重新对商船开放——并不现实。军事专家指出，通过封锁来拖垮敌人，往往需要数月乃至数年，绝非几周就能做到的。

Iran, with thousands of miles of land borders with seven neighbors, and a trade lifeline to its ally Russia across the Caspian Sea, had alternatives. The standoff persisted.

伊朗与七个邻国接壤，拥有绵延数千英里的陆地边界，又与盟友俄罗斯隔里海相望、保有贸易生命线，因此它并非毫无替代选择。僵局由此持续。

“It’s difficult to rapidly bring an adversary to its knees with a blockade,” said Michael Connell, a specialist on the Iranian military at the Center for Naval Analyses in Virginia. “It’s the kind of thing that works well over time but it’s not a quick solution.”

“通过封锁迅速让对手俯首称臣谈何容易，”弗吉尼亚州海军分析中心的伊朗军事专家迈克尔·康奈尔说。“这是一种假以时日才能奏效的手段，而非速决之计。”

Now, as the United States appears closer to a peace agreement with Iran, dropping the American blockade and reopening the strait are among the top priorities. If a deal can be reached, it would end one of the more unique naval standoffs in modern times: a tense stalemate that is neither peace nor raging conflict, between two mismatched adversaries who have exercised their leverage at sea.

如今，随着美伊和谈似乎渐现曙光，解除美国封锁、重开海峡已成为谈判的优先议题。若协议最终达成，将终结现代史上一场颇为罕见的海上对峙——一场介于和平与激烈冲突之间的紧绷僵局，两个实力悬殊的对手各自凭借海上筹码相互角力。

It has featured an increasingly familiar pattern of conflict in an era of technological disruption — the ability of Iran’s speedboats, drones, mines and missiles to hold off America’s arsenal of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers with advanced fighter jets and populations the size of small towns.

这场对峙体现了技术巨变时代一种日益熟悉的冲突模式——伊朗依靠快艇、无人机、水雷与导弹就能牵制美国拥有先进战机、驻军相当于小镇人口规模的核动力航母舰队。

The stalemate at sea has also underscored an old imperative of war. Swift victory without gaining and controlling territory on land is difficult to accomplish. A naval standoff is an attempt at economic and commercial strangulation on the water — seemingly bloodless but with hidden costs and risks for both sides.

这场海上僵局也再次印证了一条古老的战争法则：若不夺取并控制陆地，很难实现速胜。海上对峙不过是一种在海面上实施的经济与商业绞杀，表面看起来不流血，代价与风险却潜藏其中，双方概莫能外。

本月，在德黑兰的瓦利亚斯广场，一块绘有特朗普总统肖像的广告牌描绘了霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的景象。

Indeed, Adm. Brad Cooper, the leader of U.S. Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East, emphasized the value of economic pressure in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee last week. There had been “zero trade” in or out of Iranian ports, he said, “squeezing Iran economically and creating powerful leverage for the ongoing negotiations.”

事实上，负责指挥中东军事行动的美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将上周在众议院军事委员会作证时，特别强调了经济施压的重要性。他说，伊朗港口目前“贸易归零”，这“正在从经济上勒紧伊朗，为正在进行的谈判创造强大筹码”。

Iran can also inflict economic pain. Because the world economy relies on a global supply chain, it means that Iran’s blocking of exports like fertilizer, helium and most importantly oil and gas has been felt worldwide.

但伊朗同样也能制造经济痛苦。由于世界经济依赖全球供应链，伊朗阻断化肥、氦气，尤其是石油与天然气出口的行为，已经让全球都感受到了影响。

“It has become a contest of wills, to see who blinks first,” Mr. Connell said.

“这已演变成一场意志的较量，看谁先眨眼认输，”康奈尔说。

A blockade is an act of war under international law; escalation, purposeful or not, is always a risk. That point was driven home on Wednesday when Iran launched four one-way attack drones over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. military conducted airstrikes against a drone ground-control station in the port city of Bandar Abbas. It was the second time in three days that American forces conducted strikes in southern Iran, including against Iranian boats trying to emplace mines.

根据国际法，封锁是一种战争行为；无论有意与否，局势升级始终是一种风险。周三，伊朗向霍尔木兹海峡上空发射了四架单程攻击无人机，而美军则对港口城市阿巴斯的一个无人机地面控制站进行了空袭，这凸显了上述观点。这是三天内美军第二次对伊朗南部发动打击，此前一次的目标是试图布设水雷的伊朗船只。

The risks extend to other countries. More than 1.5 million people, for instance, are transiting the region for the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia right now, and the potential for a miscue that could endanger innocent lives is real. Navy officers on warships have this kind of warning drummed into them in training, with a reminder of how, during the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, a series of errors led a U.S. Navy cruiser to mistake an Iranian commercial flight for a hostile fighter jet. It shot the plane down over the Strait of Hormuz, killing all 290 people on board.

风险还会波及其他国家。例如，目前有超过150万人正在前往沙特参加朝觐，任何误判都可能危及无辜生命，这绝非空穴来风。美国海军军官在训练中经常被反复提醒这种风险，其中一个经典案例就是1988年两伊战争期间的一连串误判：一艘美国海军巡洋舰误把一架伊朗民航客机当作敌方战斗机，最终在霍尔木兹海峡上空将其击落，机上290人全部遇难。

The war at sea also imposes burdens. For Iran, the constriction of goods flowing in and out of the country puts enormous pressure on an economy that was reeling even before the war began — despite the alternative paths it has for trade.

海上战争本身也会带来巨大负担。对伊朗而言，进出口货物的受阻给早在战前便已举步维艰的经济带来了巨大压力——尽管它仍有其他贸易渠道可以利用。

本月，美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在华盛顿。他强调了在与伊朗的战争中控制经济利益的重要性。

For the United States, sending ships to patrol waters far from home not only is expensive, but also risks overtaxing the ships and the crews. The U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, for instance, limped home this month after a grueling 10 months in the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Red Sea — demonstrating how wear and tear can impose costs on a superpower overextending itself.

对美国来说，把军舰派往远离本土的海域巡逻不仅成本高昂，还可能导致舰艇与船员长期超负荷运转。例如，“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号航空母舰本月才刚刚结束在北大西洋、地中海、加勒比海和红海长达10个月的高强度部署，疲惫返航，由此可见一个过度扩张的超级大国如何因装备损耗而付出代价。

“The U.S. Navy can do some phenomenal things for a phenomenal amount of time,” said Mike Franken, a retired vice admiral who served as commodore of a destroyer squadron. “Around the edges things get tattered, and we’ve been at a very high op tempo.”

“美国海军能够在相当长的时间内保持相当强的战斗力，”曾担任驱逐舰战队指挥官的退役海军中将迈克·弗兰肯说。“但时间一长，边边角角都会磨损，而我们已经长时间处于极高的行动节奏之下。”

There are also strategic opportunities lost. The ships used to blockade Iran, and the sailors that operate them, cannot be used for other missions. President Trump’s recent trip to China served as a reminder that East Asia remains a region of strategic significance, with allies like South Korea, Japan and especially Taiwan relying at least to some extent on a U.S. naval deterrent.

还有战略机遇的流失。用于封锁伊朗的军舰与水兵无法执行其他任务。特朗普总统最近的中国之行提醒人们，东亚依然是具有重大战略意义的地区，韩国、日本，尤其是台湾，在某种程度上都依赖美国海军的威慑力。

Finally, having two adversaries in static tension creates the risk of accidental escalation, through a misreading of circumstances caused by anxiety, confusion or a lapse in concentration.

最后，两个对手处于静态紧张状态，会因焦虑、混乱或一时疏忽而误判形势，从而产生意外升级的风险。

The U.S. Central Command said this week it had redirected 111 commercial vessels and disabled four ships bound for Iranian ports thus far. Iranian forces have attacked American guided-missile destroyers crossing the Strait of Hormuz with missiles, drones and small boats. Central Command said the American warships successfully fended off the attack. Iran has also fired on ships from other countries trying to pass through the strait, causing some damage.

美国中央司令部本周表示，目前已迫使111艘商业船只改变航向，并使四艘前往伊朗港口的船只失去航行能力。伊朗部队则利用导弹、无人机与小型快艇对穿越霍尔木兹海峡的美国导弹驱逐舰发动袭击。中央司令部称，美军军舰成功击退了这些攻击。伊朗还向其他国家试图穿越海峡的船只开火，造成了一些破坏。

The United States has some two dozen warships involved in the blockade, which includes two aircraft carriers, the U.S.S. George H.W. Bush and the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, as well as guided-missile destroyers, amphibious ships, littoral combat ships and minesweepers, and refueling and supply ships to keep them provisioned and combat ready.

美国目前有大约二十多艘军舰参与封锁行动，其中包括“乔治·H·W·布什”号和“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号两艘航空母舰，以及导弹驱逐舰、两栖舰、濒海战斗舰、扫雷舰，以及负责补给与加油的后勤舰只，以保证整个舰队维持战备状态。

One precedent for the current stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz is the so-called Tanker War of the 1980s, when the war between Iran and Iraq spilled into the Persian Gulf. Though the United States was not one of the combatants, it was drawn into the fray as it began to escort civilian oil tankers through the strait, leading to the tragedy with the Iranian passenger jet.

当前霍尔木兹海峡僵局的一个历史先例是1980年代所谓的“油轮战争”。当时，伊朗与伊拉克之间的战争蔓延到波斯湾。虽然美国并非参战方，但由于开始护送民用油轮穿越海峡，最终还是被卷入冲突，并由此酿成了那场击落伊朗客机的惨剧。

If the current standoff continues, the tactic has direct costs in terms of keeping ships in the region supplied with food, fuel and ammunition. There’s also the need to keep drones, helicopters, fighters and surveillance planes in the air. Sailors, Marines and airmen receive imminent danger pay.

如果当前僵局持续下去，仅仅维持舰队在该地区运转就会产生直接成本——包括食品、燃料与弹药补给。与此同时，还需要让无人机、直升机、战斗机与侦察机持续保持空中巡逻。海军、海军陆战队与空军相关人员都要领取危险任务津贴。

本月，“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号航空母舰驶向弗吉尼亚州海岸附近的诺福克海军基地。它在北大西洋、地中海、加勒比海和波斯湾航行了10个月。

For sailors, the combination of long stretches of dullness punctuated by moments of stress and tension can be a grind. “A blockade is a very boring thing to do,” said Andrew Lambert, professor of naval history in the department of war studies at King’s College. “You’re just hanging around waiting for something to happen.”

对水兵来说，漫长无聊的时光与紧张压力的时刻交织在一起可能是一种煎熬。“封锁是一件非常无聊的事情，”伦敦国王学院战争研究系海军史教授安德鲁·兰伯特说。“你就在那里干耗着，等着什么事情发生。”

“There is a ripple effect from keeping large numbers of assets on station for protracted periods of time,” said James R. Holmes, chair of maritime strategy at the Naval War College.

“长期在任务区域保持大量装备部署会带来连锁效应，”海军战争学院海上战略系主任詹姆斯·霍姆斯说。

He cited the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford and its long deployment and posited that the carrier could encounter unexpected engineering problems when undergoing maintenance. While at sea, the ship endured mechanical problems with the gear that launches and recovers warplanes on the flight deck. A major fire destroyed the sleeping area for hundreds of sailors. There were also complaints about food shortages and delays in receiving mail that led to a decline in morale.

他以“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号及其漫长的部署周期为例，指出该航母在后续维护期间很可能会暴露出意料之外的工程问题。在海上部署期间，这艘航母曾遭遇舰载机起降设备机械故障；一场大火烧毁了数百名水兵的居住区。还有关于食物短缺和邮件延误导致士气低落的投诉。

It will be difficult for the United States to reopen trade through the strait without coming to terms with Iran, Mr. Holmes said. “All Iran needs to keep its chokehold on the Strait is enough of its mosquito fleet, including shore-based missiles and drones, to keep shipping firms and insurers jittery,” he said. “And seldom if ever does a military campaign fully disarm an antagonist short of regime change.”

霍姆斯表示，若不与伊朗达成协议，美国将难以打通这条海峡的贸易通道。“伊朗需要维持其对海峡的控制，只需足够多的‘蚊子舰队’——包括岸基导弹和无人机——让航运公司和保险公司保持惶恐，”他说。“而历史上，军事行动在不推翻政权的情况下，鲜有能让对手彻底缴械的先例。”

Mr. Lambert, the King’s College professor, said costs will mount as the standoff persists. “Because nothing particularly violent is happening on a large scale, the temptation to let it roll on is a real problem,” he said.

国王学院的兰伯特教授表示，随着僵局的持续，成本将会增加。“正因为大规模的激烈战事并未发生，任由局面拖延的诱惑就成了真正的隐患，”他说。

A measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve accelerated in April to a three-year high, reinforcing the central bank’s budding support to consider raising interest rates if price pressures do not ease.

美联储密切关注的一项通胀指标在4月加速升至三年来的高点，这进一步增强了该央行内部正在萌生的一种立场：如果价格压力没有缓解，将考虑加息。

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.8 percent from the same time last year. It was the fastest annual pace since May 2023, when the Fed was in the midst of raising rates to tame a burst of inflation that had emerged in the wake of the pandemic.

个人消费支出指数(PCE)同比上涨3.8%。这是自2023年5月以来的最快年增速，当时美联储正处于加息周期之中，以平息疫情后爆发的通胀。

A measure of underlying inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices also notched a multiyear high. That measure, “core” inflation, increased at an annual pace of 3.3 percent, the fastest since November 2023.

剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格后的潜在通胀指标也创下了多年来的新高。这一指标被称为“核心”通胀，以3.3%的年增长率上升是自2023年11月以来的最快增速。

On a monthly basis, inflation rose slightly less than expected. Overall prices jumped 0.4 percent and those excluding food and energy prices ticked up 0.2 percent.

按月计算，通胀涨幅略低于预期。整体价格上涨了0.4%，而剔除食品和能源价格的核心价格微升了0.2%。

That was a welcome reprieve, but on the whole, the latest data, which the Commerce Department released on Thursday, underscored the difficult position that officials at the central bank are now in with price pressures intensifying because of the war with Iran.

这是一个令人欣慰的喘息之处，但总体而言，美国商务部周四发布的最新数据凸显了央行官员们目前所处的困境，因为与伊朗的战争导致价格压力正在加剧。

This month, the Consumer Price Index, another inflation gauge, also showed that consumer prices had risen at the fastest pace since May 2023.

本月，另一项通胀指标——消费者价格指数(CPI)也显示，消费者价格正以自2023年5月以来的最快速度上涨。

Consumers have started to moderate their spending in the face of resurgent prices, according to Thursday’s data. Spending, once adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1 percent in April, as incomes flatlined and the savings rate dropped to the lowest level since June 2022.

根据周四的数据，面对反弹的物价，消费者已经开始节制开支。经通胀调整后，4月份的支出仅增长了0.1%，同时收入停滞不前，储蓄率降至2022年6月以来的最低水平。

The Commerce Department also revised lower its assessment of growth in the first quarter, noting that the economy expanded 1.6 percent on an inflation-adjusted basis compared with its initial estimate of 2 percent.

商务部还下调了对第一季度经济增长的评估，指出经通胀调整后，经济增长了1.6%，而最初的估计为2%。

The war, which began in late February, has severely disrupted global energy markets, raising the urgency of a deal between President Trump and Iranian officials. No agreement has emerged, however, and renewed hostilities in recent days have dimmed hopes that a crucial shipping pathway, the Strait of Hormuz, will be reopened soon.

这场始于2月下旬的战争严重扰乱了全球能源市场，这增加了特朗普总统与伊朗官员达成协议的紧迫性。然而，目前尚未达成任何协议，而且近日战火重燃，使得关键航运通道霍尔木兹海峡很快重新开放的希望变得渺茫。

The Fed typically ignores or “looks through” supply shocks because they historically tend to affect prices only temporarily. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, appeared to back this approach in remarks on Thursday. He acknowledged that continuing supply chain disruptions caused by the war were worrisome, but he estimated that the impact on inflation could peak in a few months.

美联储通常会忽略或“看淡”供应冲击，因为从历史上看，它们对价格的影响往往只是暂时的。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯在周四的讲话中似乎支持这种做法。他承认，战争造成的持续供应链中断令人担忧，但他估计对通胀的影响可能会在几个月内达峰。

But other officials have begun to question whether the look-through approach is the right one, given that the war with Iran is the fourth shock in five years to push inflation further from the Fed’s 2 percent target. The U.S. economy has weathered a series of events that have raised prices, including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Mr. Trump’s global trade war.

但其他官员已经开始质疑这种“看淡”的做法是否正确，因为与伊朗的战争已经是五年来第四次导致通胀进一步偏离美联储2%目标的冲击。美国经济已经经历了一系列推高价格的事件，包括新冠疫情、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，以及特朗普的全球贸易战。

Since 2021, inflation has been higher than the central bank would like. Expectations about inflation in the next five or 10 years still reflect confidence that the central bank will eventually succeed in bringing inflation down to 2 percent. But the longer inflation stays above that target, the more likely that confidence could begin to ebb.

自2021年以来，通胀水平一直高于央行的预期。对未来五年或10年通胀的预期仍然反映出人们对央行最终成功将通胀降至2%充满信心。但通胀高于该目标的时间越长，这种信心就越有可能开始动摇。。

With the labor market on firmer footing than just a couple of months ago, more Fed officials have embraced the possibility that rates may need to rise to get inflation fully under control.

由于劳动力市场比几个月前更加稳固，越来越多的美联储官员接受了这样一种可能性：可能需要加息才能将通胀完全控制住。

“I want to be clear about my risk assessment: The risks remain tilted toward ⁠higher inflation,” said Lisa D. Cook, a Fed governor, in remarks on Wednesday. “I am prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner.”

“关于我的风险评估，我想明确一点：风险仍然倾向于通胀走高，”美联储理事丽莎·库克在周三的讲话中表示。“如果预期的通胀回落没有及时出现，我准备支持加息。”

That followed a speech last week from Christopher J. Waller, another governor, who made clear that he could “no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon.” That, he added, was “especially true if measures of inflation expectations, some of which have risen lately, show signs of becoming unanchored.”

在此之前，另一位理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在上周的演讲中也明确表示，如果通胀“近期未能缓解”，他“不能再排除未来进一步加息的可能性”。他还说，“如果衡量通胀预期的指标——其中一些最近有所上升——显示出脱离锚定的迹象，那就更是如此。”

The specter of higher rates comes amid a leadership transition at the Fed. Kevin M. Warsh, whom Mr. Trump picked to replace Jerome H. Powell as chair, was sworn in to the top job at the Fed last week. Mr. Trump has long berated the Fed for not lowering rates quickly enough.

加息的阴影正值美联储领导层交接之际出现。特朗普挑选凯文·沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任主席，沃什已于上周宣誓就任美联储最高职位。长期以来，特朗普一直斥责美联储降息不够迅速。

Mr. Trump has hinted he will try to ease up on his pressure campaign now that Mr. Warsh is at the helm. At Friday’s swearing-in ceremony, which was held at the White House for the first time since 1987, the president said he wanted Mr. Warsh to be “totally independent.”

特朗普曾暗示，既然现在由沃什掌舵，他将试图减轻对美联储的施压。在周五的宣誓就职仪式上——这是该仪式自1987年以来首次在白宫举行——总统表示，他希望沃什能够“完全独立”。

But that leeway could quickly disappear, especially if the Fed begins to more seriously consider rate increases, which would make all types of borrowing more expensive.

但这种回旋余地可能会迅速消失，尤其是如果美联储开始更认真地考虑加息，这将使各类借款成本上升。

Traders in federal funds futures markets expect the central bank to eventually raise rates early next year.

联邦基金期货市场的交易员预计，美联储最终将在明年初加息。

The low-cost Chinese e-commerce platform Temu was fined 200 million euros ($232 million) by the European Union on Thursday for failing to spot and curb the sale of illegal products.

中国廉价电商平台Temu因未能发现并遏制非法商品的销售，于周四被欧盟处以2亿欧元（约合人民币15.7亿元）罚款。

The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said that Temu had violated the European Union’s Digital Services Act, the bloc’s wide-ranging law that polices online practices. Temu is required to submit a plan to address the breaches by Aug. 28. It could also appeal.

欧盟执行机构欧洲委员会表示，Temu违反了欧盟的《数字服务法》——一部涵盖广泛的欧盟网络行为监管法规。Temu被要求在8月28日之前提交一份解决违规问题的计划。该公司也可以提出申诉。

The commission opened its investigation into Temu in 2024, one year after the company first expanded into Europe, amid what it called “a steady surge” in products sold online that it said were “unsafe, counterfeit or noncompliant.” The goods were potentially harmful to consumers, the environment and “fair competition,” officials said.

欧盟委员会于2024年对Temu展开了调查，当时正值该公司进入欧洲市场一年后，原因是网上销售的商品出现了其所谓的“持续激增”，并称这些商品“不安全、伪劣或不合规”。官员们表示，这些商品对消费者、环境和“公平竞争”具有潜在危害。

The European Union said on Thursday that Temu had been subject to a mystery shopping exercise as part of the investigation. In that test, “a very high percentage” of chargers failed basic safety tests and many baby toys “posed safety risks.” The toys contained chemicals that were above legal limits or posed suffocation hazards, the statement noted.

欧盟在周四表示，作为调查的一部分，Temu曾接受过一次神秘客抽检。在那次测试中，“极高比例”的充电器未能通过基本安全测试，许多婴儿玩具“存在安全风险”。声明指出，这些玩具所含的化学物质超出了法律限制，或存在窒息隐患。

The fine was the second against a company for violating the Digital Services Act, and the largest to date. The commission previously fined X the equivalent of $139 million over transparency issues under the act. Technology firms have been hit with larger fines under other E.U. rules.

这是欧盟第二次援引《数字服务法》对企业进行罚款处罚，也是迄今为止金额最大的一笔。欧盟委员会此前曾根据该法令，以透明度问题为由，对X处以相当于1.39亿美元的罚款。还有一些科技公司因触犯欧盟的其它法规受到过更高额的罚款。

“We will continue to engage with regulators in good faith, while reviewing the decision carefully and considering all available options,” a Temu spokesperson said in a statement.

“我们将在仔细审视这一决定并考虑所有可行选项的同时，继续与监管机构保持友好沟通，”Temu的一位发言人在声明中表示。

Temu is owned by the Chinese tech giant PDD Holdings and serves millions of shoppers outside of China including in the European Union’s large market of 450 million consumers. It sells clothing, beauty products, home goods and other items.

该公司由中国科技巨头拼多多控股所有，为中国境外的数百万购物者提供服务，其中包括欧盟这个有4.5亿消费者的庞大市场。它销售服装、美容产品、家居用品和其他商品。

The company’s assessment of its risks “leaves regulators, users, and the public in the dark about the true scale of potential harm posed by illegal products sold on Temu,” Henna Virkkunen, the European Commission official responsible for technology, said in a statement.

欧盟委员会负责技术事务的官员亨娜·维尔库宁在声明中表示，该公司对其风险的评估“向监管机构、用户和公众隐瞒了Temu上销售的非法商品所带来的潜在危害的真实规模”。

“Now it is time for Temu to comply with the law,” she added.

“现在是Temu遵守法律的时候了，”她补充道。

European officials have been grappling with how to control the flow of goods from China and protect local companies struggling to compete with China’s manufacturing dominance — an issue that spans cheap everyday goods, electronics, automobiles and more. The European Commission has also opened investigations into Shein and AliExpress, two of Temu’s Chinese competitors.

欧洲官员一直在努力解决如何控制来自中国的商品流量，并保护那些在与中国制造业优势竞争中苦苦挣扎的本土公司——这一问题涵盖了廉价日常商品、电子产品、汽车等诸多领域。欧盟委员会也已对Shein和AliExpress这两家Temu的中国竞争对手展开调查。

On Thursday, the Commission announced an investigation into the Chinese e-commerce company JD.com’s proposed purchase of Ceconomy, a German electronics retailer. It cited “concerns that JD.com may have been granted foreign subsidies” that could distort the market.

周四，欧盟委员会宣布对中国电商公司京东拟收购德国电子零售商Ceconomy一事展开调查。委员会提到了对“京东可能获得了外国补贴”从而可能扭曲市场的“担忧”。

There has also been a broader global pushback against Chinese e-commerce companies. Temu said it stopped shipping its products from China to customers in the United States last year, after the Trump administration closed a loophole for Chinese companies to avoid import fees on shipments worth $800 or less.

全球对中国电商公司也出现了更广泛的抵制。Temu表示，在特朗普政府堵住漏洞，让中国公司无法利用价值800美元或以下货物所享受的免税待遇后，该公司于去年停止从中国直接向美国客户发送商品。

European officials are considering what broader measures could help to limit China’s dominance, while helping European companies to maintain market share.

欧洲官员正在考虑可以采取哪些更广泛的措施来限制中国的优势地位，同时帮助欧洲公司保持市场份额。

All 27 European commissioners will meet on Friday for a debate about what additional trade and industrial measures might be needed as they contend with a challenging era of trade relations with China. The topic is expected to come up repeatedly in the coming weeks, including at a meeting of leaders from around the European Union in June.

面对这个欧中贸易充满挑战的时代，27名欧盟委员将于周五举行会议，就可能需要进一步采取哪些贸易和产业措施展开辩论。这一议题预计将在未来几周内被反复提及，包括在6月举行的欧盟领导人会议上。

Sun Haoyu, a hog farmer in Dalian, in northern China’s Liaoning Province, first noticed pork prices beginning to tumble late last year.

去年底，中国北方辽宁省大连市的生猪养殖户孙浩宇（音）首次注意到猪肉价格开始大幅下跌。

With 3,000 hogs to care for, Mr. Sun said, he had “no choice but to tough it out,” relying entirely on loans and borrowed money to keep his operation afloat. But prices kept plummeting, and last month they hit a 16-year low. Now, across his region, many small farms are on the brink of collapse.

孙先生说，由于手上有3000头生猪，他“别无选择，只能硬挺过去”，完全依靠贷款和借来的资金来维持经营。但价格仍在持续暴跌，并在上个月跌至16年来的新低。如今，在他所在的整个地区，许多小型养殖场都处于倒闭的边缘。

“Many hog farmers can no longer hold out,” Mr. Sun said in an interview. “After all that backbreaking work raising hogs, we can barely afford the feed anymore.”

“许多养殖户已经撑不下去了，”孙先生在接受采访时说。“辛辛苦苦把猪养大，现在我们连饲料钱都快付不起了。”

China’s plunging pork prices are more than an agricultural problem. In a country where the commodity is treated as a bellwether of inflation, the decline is an ominous sign for the economy.

中国猪肉价格的暴跌不仅是一个农业问题。在这个将该商品视为通货膨胀风向标的国家，这一跌势对经济而言是一个不祥的预兆。

Not long ago, pork prices were soaring after an epidemic of swine fever devastated the nation’s hogs. That prompted Beijing to ramp up production, creating a glut just as Chinese consumers were looking to save rather than spend.

不久之前，一场非洲猪瘟疫情重创全国的生猪养殖业，猪肉价格曾一路飙升。这促使北京方面增加生产，结果在中国消费者打算存钱而非消费之际造成了供应过剩。

The pork industry is another casualty of China’s economic slowdown. The property market is in a yearslong slump, dragging down spending, including at restaurants, a big driver of pork sales. Construction activity has also weakened, reducing demand for pork, long a staple for workers on building sites, according to a report from Nomura, the Japanese bank.

养猪业是中国经济放缓的又一个牺牲品。房地产市场正处于长达数年的低迷期，拖累了包括餐馆在内的消费支出，而餐馆是猪肉销售的主要驱动力。根据日本银行野村证券的一份报告，作为长期以来工地工人的主要食物之一，建筑活动的走弱也减少了对猪肉的需求。

2月，北京的一个菜市场。中国猪肉价格在过去四年里下跌了39%。

“The construction site workers and then dining out are the two cohorts that we see have a higher pork consumption,” Hannah Liu, a China economist at Nomura, said in an interview. “When we see a collapse from these two cohorts, we definitely see demand crater.”

“我们发现，建筑工地工人和外出就餐者是猪肉消费量较高的两个群体，”野村证券中国经济学家汉娜·刘在接受采访时说。“当我们看到这两个群体的消费出现崩塌时，需求必然会随之骤降。”

China has endured years of deflation across much of the economy, and pork prices are down 39 percent over the last four years, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. That deflationary trend began to reverse only in recent months, when rising energy costs from the war in Iran pushed up prices.

根据中国国家统计局的数据，中国大部分经济领域已经经历了数年的通货紧缩，猪肉价格在过去四年中下降了39%。这种趋势直到几个月前才开始逆转，当时因伊朗战争引发的能源成本上升推高了物价。

While the government has sought to boost major pork producers, offering them heavily subsidized bank loans and credit to expand, smaller farmers like Mr. Sun have received far less assistance.

尽管政府一直试图扶持大型猪肉生产商，向他们提供有高额补贴的银行贷款和授信额度以进行扩张，孙先生这样的个体小农户获得的帮助却少得多。

Even with government support, the industry’s biggest players are struggling. Wens Foodstuff Group, one of China’s biggest hog producers, saw profits fall 43 percent last year. The company said prices for its pigs in April fell about 38 percent from a year earlier.

即使有政府的支持，该行业最大的几家企业也举步维艰。中国最大生猪生产商之一温氏食品集团去年的利润下降了43%。该公司表示，4月份其生猪价格同比下降了约38%。

Dabeinong, another pork giant, sold more pork this year than last year but still reported a decline in profitability, citing “market conditions and fluctuations in hog prices.”

另一家生猪巨头大北农今年的猪肉销量虽然高于去年，但仍报告了盈利能力的下降，并辩称原因为“市场环境及猪价波动”。

The downturn is a stark reversal from the soaring prices after the 2019 swine fever epidemic. In an attempt to lower prices and promote agricultural self-reliance — a priority championed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping — the government encouraged the construction of massive, multistory pig farms.

这次低迷与2019年猪瘟疫情后价格飙升的状况形成了鲜明反差。为了降低价格并促进农业自给自足——这是中国领导人习近平所倡导的优先事项——政府曾鼓励建设大型的多层养猪场。

中国鄂州一家水泥厂旁的高层养猪场。这家养猪场于2022年开始运营，此前受猪瘟疫情影响，猪肉价格曾出现飙升。

But now, farmers find themselves with too many hogs and not enough demand in a country that consumes half of the world’s pork.

但如今，在这个消费了全球一半猪肉的国家，养殖户们发现自己面临着生猪过多而需求不足的困境。

In China, the meat is a staple in everyday meals and in dishes served at celebratory events or fancy dinners. Because it is so frequently consumed, pork is especially susceptible to the weaknesses of an economy gripped by stubborn youth unemployment, a shaky property market and a strained pension system.

在中国，这种肉类是日常膳食、庆祝活动或高级宴席中不可或缺的主要食材。正因为消费的普遍性，猪肉特别容易受到经济疲软的影响，而目前的经济正受到顽固的青年失业率、摇摇欲坠的房地产市场和吃紧的养老金体系的困扰。

Diners at restaurants have been spending less money per meal than just a few years ago, according to Canyin88, a Chinese website that collects data on the restaurant industry. Even the lavish banquets and business dinners once held by government officials have been reined in. Some local governments have barred civil servants from dining in groups of more than three, after several reports of excessive drinking at official banquets.

根据收集餐饮业数据的中国网站“餐饮88”的数据，现在餐馆食客每餐花费的金额比几年前要少。甚至连政府官员过去常常举行的大手大脚的宴会和商务宴请也受到了抑制。在数起关于官方宴会上过度饮酒的报道出现后，一些地方政府已禁止公务员进行三人以上的聚餐。

In a symbolic effort to reassure markets, Beijing has repeatedly bought meat for its national strategic pork reserve, an emergency government-run stockpile stored in warehouses across the country. In 2019, when pork prices skyrocketed, the government tapped those reserves to help ease grocery costs.

为了安抚市场，北京方面已多次为国家战略猪肉储备收储肉类，这是一项由政府运营、储存在全国各地仓库中的应急储备。在2019年猪肉价格暴涨时，政府曾动用这些储备来帮助缓解食品消费成本。

Beijing has also prodded local governments to buy more pork, because prices have fallen beyond the “warning zone for excessive price drops.”

北京方面还督促地方政府购买更多猪肉，因为价格已经跌破了“过度下跌一级预警区间”。

台州一家屠宰场。中国政府一直在采取行动增加猪肉采购，但经济学家汉娜·刘表示，“需求侧已经没什么可做的了。”

And last month, during a pair of high-level meetings, including one led by Mr. Xi, officials stressed the importance of addressing “the profound shifts currently taking place in the supply-demand dynamics” of the pork industry.

在上个月举行的两次高层会议期间（包括一次由习近平主持的会议），官员们强调了解决猪肉行业当前“供需关系发生深刻变化”这一问题的重要性。

The authorities have already urged farmers to reduce the pork entering the market by culling breeding sows. Regulators have also set stricter weight standards for each hog, effectively limiting the volume of meat available for sale. At the same time, the government has scaled back the subsidized loans it once offered to large-scale pig farms seeking to expand.

当局已经敦促养殖户通过淘汰能繁母猪来减少进入市场的猪肉。监管机构还对每头生猪制定了更严格的体重标准，从而有效限制了可供销售的肉量。与此同时，政府也缩减了曾向寻求扩张的大型养猪场提供的补贴贷款。

Those efforts, Ms. Liu said, could help stabilize prices. But without a stronger recovery in consumer demand, she didn’t expect them to rebound significantly.

汉娜·刘说，这些努力有助于稳定价格。但如果消费者需求没有更强劲的复苏，她预计价格不会出现明显反弹。

“There is little to do from the demand side,” Ms. Liu said of further government interventions. “You cannot order other enterprises to purchase more pork.”

“需求侧已经没什么能做的了，”她在谈到政府的进一步干预时说。“你无法命令其他企业购买更多猪肉。”

This month, a pair of viruses seized the headlines. First came a hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship, which caused as many as 13 infections, three of which were fatal. Then an Ebola outbreak flared in Africa, so far leading to more than 900 infections and 220 deaths.

本月，两种病毒占据了新闻头条。先是一艘邮轮上暴发了汉坦病毒疫情，导致多达13人感染，其中三人死亡。紧接着，非洲爆发了埃博拉疫情，截至目前已导致900多人感染，220人死亡。

In both cases, the news has been not only frightening but also confusing, even to scientists. The hantaviruses didn’t seem to be acting like hantaviruses, and the Ebola viruses weren’t behaving like Ebola viruses.

在两起事件中，相关新闻不仅令人惊恐，而且令人困惑，甚至对科学家来说也是如此。此次汉坦病毒的表现似乎不再像汉坦病毒，而埃博拉病毒的表现也不再像埃博拉病毒。

Hantaviruses are carried by rodents and other animals, and typically infect people who inhale dried animal urine and saliva. But aboard the cruise ship M.V. Hondius, hantaviruses were moving from person to person.

汉坦病毒由啮齿动物和其他动物携带，通常通过吸入动物的干尿液和唾液感染人类。但在宏迪乌斯号邮轮上，汉坦病毒却在人际传播。

As for the African outbreak, scientists have made huge strides in fighting Ebola in recent years. They’ve created vaccines that can slow the spread of the disease and antiviral drugs that can cure infections.

至于非洲的疫情，科学家们近年来在对抗埃博拉方面已经取得了巨大进展。他们研发出了可以减缓疾病传播的疫苗，以及可以治愈感染的抗病毒药物。

But these treatments are probably going to be weak or useless. This is a very different Ebola virus.

但如今这些治疗方法可能起不到什么作用，甚至毫无用处。这是一种非常不同的埃博拉病毒。

What gives? There is a vast diversity of viruses, but we employ a limited vocabulary to talk about them. It would be just as confusing to treat blue whales like fruit bats and Siberian tigers, simply on the grounds that they’re all mammals.

这是怎么回事？病毒种类繁多，但我们用来讨论它们的词汇却很有限。这就好比因为蓝鲸、果蝠和东北虎都是哺乳动物，就把它们一概而论，同样会让人困惑。

Jens Kuhn, a virologist who serves on the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, said that the recent outbreaks point to yawning gaps in our understanding of the so-called virosphere, the millions — perhaps even trillions — of virus species thriving around us.

国际病毒分类委员会成员、病毒学家延斯·库恩表示，最近的疫情表明，我们对所谓的“病毒圈”——在我们周围繁衍生息的数百万甚至数万亿种病毒——存在巨大的认识空白。

“These are case-use examples of why taxonomy is important,” he said. “Is something the same, or is it different? Well, if it’s different, then stuff we know about the other thing will not work on it.”

“这些实例恰恰说明了分类学的重要性，”他说。“某个病毒是相同的，还是不同的？如果它是不同的，那么我们对另一种病毒的知识就派不上用场了。”

Ebola viruses got their names from the site of one of the first documented outbreaks in 1976: the Ebola River, in what was then Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo. When scientists examined blood from the victims, they isolated long, snakelike viruses distinct from any previously known.

埃博拉病毒得名于1976年首次记录在案的疫情暴发地之一埃博拉河。这条河位于当时的扎伊尔（现为刚果民主共和国）。科学家检测受害者血液，分离出长条状的蛇形病毒，与之前已知的任何病毒都截然不同。

本周，医护人员进入刚果鲁旺帕拉的一家埃博拉治疗中心。

But 1976 saw another outbreak that also caused deadly, bloody fevers — this one hundreds of miles to the east, in what was then Sudan, now South Sudan. The infected also harbored snakelike viruses.

但1976年还发生了另一起引发致命出血性发热的疫情——这次爆发地点在向东几百公里外的苏丹（现为南苏丹）。感染者体内同样带有蛇形病毒。

When scientists compared the viral genes, however, they found a striking number of differences. In later years, Ebola outbreaks occurred dozens of times, and in most cases the viruses resembled either the type first seen in Zaire or the type seen in Sudan.

然而，当科学家对比两种病毒的基因时，却发现了惊人的差异。在随后的几年里，埃博拉疫情爆发了数十次，而且在大多数情况下，这些病毒要么类似于最初在扎伊尔发现的类型，要么类似于在苏丹发现的类型。

Eventually, Dr. Kuhn and his colleagues formally recognized the two kinds of viruses as two distinct species. And, as taxonomists do in such cases, they gave each species a Latin name: Orthoebolavirus zairense and Orthoebolavirus sudanense.

最终，库恩和同事正式承认这两类病毒为两个不同的物种。并且，按照分类学家在这种情况下的惯例，他们给每个物种起了拉丁学名：Orthoebolavirus zairense（扎伊尔埃博拉病毒）和Orthoebolavirus sudanense（苏丹埃博拉病毒）。

But in the 50 years since the first Ebola outbreak, scientists have found other relatives of these viruses. In 2007, for example, 149 people in the Bundibugyo District of Uganda came down with hemorrhagic fevers, and 37 died.

但在首次爆发埃博拉疫情后的50年里，科学家们还发现了这些病毒的其他亲属。例如， 2007年，乌干达本迪布焦区有149人患上了出血热，其中37人死亡。

The virus they harbored was, genetically speaking, over 30 percent different from the viruses isolated in Zaire and Sudan — a new species, known now as Orthoebolavirus bundibugyoense.

从基因角度来说，他们体内携带的病毒与在扎伊尔和苏丹分离出的病毒存在超过30%的差异——这是一个病毒新种类，现在被称为Orthoebolavirus bundibugyoense（本迪布焦埃博拉病毒）。

The Bundibugyo virus caused a second small outbreak in 2012 before exploding back on the scene this month. The vaccines and the drugs that were developed for the Zaire species don’t work against the Bundibugyo virus, which belongs to a different evolutionary lineage. That’s one reason the new outbreak has public health experts so worried.

本迪布焦病毒在2012年引起过一次小型疫情，本月又再次集中暴发。针对扎伊尔病毒研发的疫苗和药物对本迪布焦病毒不起作用，因为该病毒属于不同的进化谱系。这也是公共卫生专家对新一轮疫情如此担忧的原因之一。

Hantaviruses also got their names from a river: the Hantan River, which flows through North and South Korea. It’s in a region where a mysterious kidney disease struck people every year. In 1978, researchers isolated the cause: a virus carried by striped field mice.

汉坦病毒同样得名于一条河流：流经朝鲜和韩国的汉江。在这一地区，一种神秘的肾脏疾病每年都会侵袭人们。1978年，研究人员分离出了病因：一种由黑线姬鼠携带的病毒。

这是一张名为Sin Nombre汉坦病毒的透射电子显微镜照片，该病毒曾于1993年在美国西部引发疫情。

Since then, scientists have discovered hantaviruses lurking in rodents and other mammals around the world. Some of them also cause kidney damage, while others strike the heart and the lungs.

自那以后，科学家们在世界各地的啮齿动物和其他哺乳动物中发现了潜伏的汉坦病毒。其中一些病毒会引起肾脏损害，另一些则会侵袭心脏和肺部。

The actor Gene Hackman’s wife, Betsy Arakawa, died at their New Mexico home last year after being infected with a type of hantavirus called Sin Nombre. Diagnosed earlier with Alzheimer’s, Mr. Hackman died days afterward.

演员吉恩·哈克曼的妻子贝特西·荒川（音）去年在他们新墨西哥州的家中因感染了一种名为Sin Nombre（无名）的汉坦病毒而去世。此前被诊断出患有阿尔茨海默症的哈克曼也在几天后去世。

As hantaviruses have adapted to rodents and other mammals across much of the world, they have evolved an enormous diversity — Dr. Kuhn and his colleagues recognize 38 species in the genus Orthohantavirus. (The Ebola genus, by contrast, includes only six species.)

随着汉坦病毒适应了世界上大部分地区的啮齿动物和其他哺乳动物，它们又演化出了巨大的多样性——库恩博士和同事在正汉坦病毒属中鉴定出了38个物种。（相比之下，埃博拉病毒属仅包含六个物种。）

Each species in turn may harbor a lot of diversity. As viruses replicate, strains can pick up new mutations that can drastically change their biology.

每个物种内部也可能包含大量的多样性。随着病毒的复制，不同毒株会产生新的突变，从而彻底改变其生物学特性。

The outbreak on M.V. Hondius this spring was caused by a species called Orthohantavirus andesense, carried by a number of rodents in South America. But there are four strains of this species; the outbreak was caused by one called Andes virus.

今年春天宏迪乌斯号邮轮上的疫情是由一个名为Orthohantavirus andesense（安第斯汉坦病毒）的病毒引起的，该病毒由南美洲的许多啮齿动物携带。但该物种有四个亚型；此次疫情是由其中一个名为安第斯的亚型引起的。

Unlike the other three strains — and unlike the 37 other species of hantaviruses — Andes virus can spread directly from one person to another.

与其他三个亚型不同——也与另外37种汉坦病毒不同——安第斯病毒可以直接人际传播。

“It seems like there are some mutations that under certain circumstances can make Andes virus person-to-person transmissible,” Dr. Kuhn said. No one knows what those mutations are.

“似乎有一些突变在某些情况下可以使安第斯病毒具备人际传播能力，”库恩说。目前没有人知道这些突变是什么。

本月早些时候，科学家和其他人员在阿根廷乌斯怀亚从捕鼠器中收集老鼠，以确定汉坦病毒是否已传播至该地区。

Dr. Kuhn suspects that the other strains related to Andes virus are lurking in rodents and share this ability to spread among people. After the M.V. Hondius outbreak, he predicts, scientists in Argentina and Chile will “go into their freezers with all the samples and sequence the crap out of everything and figure out — what are all these things?”

库恩怀疑，其他与安第斯病毒相关的毒株也潜伏在啮齿动物中，并同样拥有人际传播的能力。他预测，在宏迪乌斯号邮轮疫情之后，阿根廷和智利的科学家们将“翻出冷冻库里的所有样本，彻底对所有东西进行基因测序，搞清楚——这些东西到底都是些什么？”

As for Ebola, Dr. Kuhn expects more unpleasant surprises. He points to Orthoebolavirus taiense, also known as Taï Forest virus.

至于埃博拉，库恩博士预计会有更多令人不快的意外。他提到了Orthoebolavirus taiense（塔伊森林埃博拉病毒），也被称为塔伊森林病毒。

The first and last time anyone saw this species was in 1994, when it infected a scientist dissecting a dead chimpanzee. She developed Ebola symptoms but eventually recovered.

人们第一次也是最后一次见到该病毒是在1994年，当时它感染了一名正在解剖一只死黑猩猩的科学家。她出现了埃博拉症状，但最终康复了。

“I’m sure it’s still out there, but nobody focuses on it because it caused only one case,” Dr. Kuhn said. “I think that’s a big mistake.”

“我确定它仍然存在于自然界中，但没人关注它，因为它只引发了一个病例，”库恩说。“我认为这是一个巨大的错误。”

Other Ebola-like species that have yet to be discovered and named may be lurking in African animals. The classification system that Dr. Kuhn has helped create will hopefully make it an easier process.

其他尚未被发现和命名的埃博拉类病毒可能正潜伏在非洲动物体内。库恩参与创建的分类系统有望让这一过程变得更加容易。

He doesn’t expect people to learn to rattle off Orthohantavirus andesense and other Latin names in casual conversation. But instead of referring to the cause of the outbreak in Africa as the Ebola virus, he suggests calling it Bundibugyo virus. (It’s pronounced boon-dee-boo-joh.)

他不指望人们在日常交谈中能脱口说出Orthohantavirus andesense之类拉丁学名。但是，他建议不要将此次非洲疫情的起因统称为“埃博拉病毒”，而是称其为“本迪布焦病毒”。

“The moment you mix up Bundibugyo virus and Ebola virus, the impression will be, ‘Oh, we’ve got something for that,’” Dr. Kuhn said. “But we don’t.”

“一旦你把本迪布焦病毒和埃博拉病毒混为一谈，给人的印象就会是：‘哦，我们有办法对付它，’”库恩说，“但实际上，我们没有。”

Many automakers have found it difficult to sell the public on electric vehicles, and Ferrari is no exception.

许多汽车制造商都发现，说服大众接受电动汽车并非易事，法拉利也不例外。

Investors and car enthusiasts have panned the Luce, the Italian sports car maker’s first E.V. that was unveiled on Monday, leading to a backlash in Ferrari’s home country, a flood of unflattering memes and a dent in the company’s share price.

这家意大利跑车制造商周一发布了旗下首款纯电车型Luce，结果遭到投资者与车迷的猛烈批评。在法拉利的故乡意大利，这款车甚至引发强烈反弹；网络上出现大量恶搞米姆，公司股价也受到打击。

On Wednesday, Ferrari opened its order book for the four-door sports car selling at 550,000 euros, or $640,000. Its stock has fallen about 8 percent since the flashy launch event, and analysts are questioning whether the Luce’s rocky debut signals trouble ahead for the company’s electrification push.

周三，法拉利正式开放这款四门跑车的预订，售价为55万欧元（约64万美元）。自那场大张旗鼓的发布会以来，公司股价已下跌约8%。分析师开始质疑，Luce坎坷的首秀是否预示着法拉利电动化转型前路坎坷。

Harald Hendrikse, an auto analyst at Citi, said it was unclear the effect the new car would have on Ferrari’s general “brand perception.” High-end automakers have found it especially difficult to get traction for E.V.s, he added in a research note on Tuesday, after Ferrari hosted an event in Rome for analysts to see the car up close. “Launching the Luce now, Ferrari highlighted such risks,” he wrote.

花旗的汽车分析师哈拉尔德·亨德里克斯表示，目前还不清楚这款新车会对法拉利的整体“品牌形象”产生怎样的影响。他在周二的一份研究报告中补充说，高端汽车制造商在电动车领域普遍难以打开局面。此前，法拉利在罗马举办了一场活动，让分析师近距离体验这款新车。“法拉利此时推出Luce也凸显了此类风险，”他写道。

In a break from recent tradition, Ferrari sought outside design help for the Luce, turning to LoveFrom, the agency founded in 2019 by Jony Ive, Apple’s former design chief, and the industrial designer Marc Newson.

法拉利这次打破近年来的传统，寻求外部设计支持，将Luce的设计委托给了LoveFrom。该公司由苹果前首席设计师乔纳森·艾夫和工业设计师马克·纽森于2019年创立。

The Ive-inspired design has been polarizing. Some reviewers praised the engineering, interior design and accelerating power of the new model. But many Ferraristi, as the brand’s fans are known, prize the sleek angles and distinctive engine roar of models like the Ferrari F80, and are finding it difficult to embrace the Luce’s bubblelike exterior.

这款带有艾夫风格的设计引发了截然相反的评价。一些车评人对新车的工程设计、内饰和加速性能给予了好评，但许多法拉利的铁杆粉丝——业界称之为Ferraristi——早已习惯了F80等车型的流畅线条与招牌式的引擎轰鸣，对Luce那宛如气泡般圆润的外观实难接受。

Online, the Luce — pronounced LOO-chay, or “light” in Italian — drew plenty of comparisons to the Nissan Leaf, an E.V. that costs about a half a million dollars less. “Why is it that some automakers think that electric vehicles have to look like electronic devices?” one commenter on Reddit asked. A popular meme showed a car that looks like the Luce wheels-up, with an iPhone charger plugged into its undercarriage.

在网络上，Luce（意大利语发音为LOO-chay，意为“光”）被频繁拿来与日产聆风比较，后者的售价要便宜约50万美元。“为什么有些汽车制造商认为电动车必须看起来像电子设备？”Reddit上的一位评论者问道。一个流传很广的梗图显示，一辆看起来像Luce的车四轮朝天，底盘上还插着一根iPhone充电线。

Perhaps the harshest criticism came from Luca di Montezemolo, Ferrari’s former chairman. “If I say what I think, I’d cause harm to Ferrari,” he told reporters on Tuesday, when asked to comment on the Luce.

或许最严厉的批评来自法拉利前董事长卢卡·迪·蒙特泽莫罗。“如果说出我的真实想法，会伤害法拉利，”周二，当被问及对Luce的看法时，他告诉记者。

Moments later, he reconsidered, saying bluntly: “We’re risking the destruction of a legend.” Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and the leader of Italy’s far-right League Party, posted similarly unflattering remarks on social media.

片刻之后，他改变了主意，直言不讳地表示：“我们正在冒着毁掉一个传奇的风险。”意大利副总理、右翼政党联盟党领导人马泰奥·萨尔维尼也在社交媒体上发表了类似不太客气的评论。

That said, Pope Leo XIV and President Sergio Mattarella of Italy, seemed impressed when they inspected the Luce as Ferrari took the car on a V.I.P. spin through Rome.

不过，教宗良十四世和意大利总统塞尔焦·马塔雷拉在法拉利带着这款新车在罗马做VIP体验时，似乎都显得颇为欣赏。

But there is a lot riding on the Luce. Benedetto Vigna, Ferrari’s chief executive, called the electric vehicle a rare “Leapfrog moment” in the company’s nearly 80-year history of making high-performance sports cars. “I am fortunate to be living one at this time,” he said in an interview on Monday.

但对法拉利来说，Luce的成败意义重大。法拉利首席执行官贝内代托·维尼亚说，在这家生产高性能跑车的公司近80年的历史中，这款电动车是难得一遇的“跨越式时刻”。“我很幸运，能够在这个时代亲历这一刻，”他在周一接受采访时说。

Some analysts have pinned Ferrari’s electrification push on Mr. Vigna, a former tech executive who took over at Ferrari in 2021.

一些分析师将法拉利的电动化转型归因于维尼亚。这位前科技行业高管于2021年接手法拉利。

In October, the company disappointed the market with a lackluster growth forecast, which included a downgrade to its electric ambitions.

去年10月，公司发布了一份乏善可陈的增长预期，其中还下调了电动车目标，导致市场大失所望。

Shares in Ferrari have fallen by one-third since then, wiping nearly $30 billion off the company’s market valuation.

自那以来，法拉利股价已下跌三分之一，公司市值蒸发近300亿美元。

Ferrari now expects 20 percent of its 2030 model lineup to be all electric, compared with a 40 percent target it announced in 2022. It left unchanged its plan for hybrids to make up 40 percent of new cars.

法拉利现在预计，到2030年，其车型阵容中20%将是纯电车型，而在2022年，公司原本提出的目标是40%。混动车型占比40%的计划则维持不变。

The market for high-end E.V.s has largely stalled. Other luxury carmakers — including Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lamborghini — have postponed, scaled back or abandoned their electric plans. Many investors wondered if Ferrari, whose profits had largely defied the woes of the automotive sector and President Trump’s trade war, had also misjudged the market for E.V.s.

高端电动车市场整体已陷入停滞。梅赛德斯-奔驰、保时捷和兰博基尼等豪华车制造商都纷纷推迟、缩减甚至放弃了各自的电动车计划。许多投资者不禁发问：法拉利——这家盈利能力曾在很大程度上抵御住汽车行业整体困境和特朗普贸易战冲击的公司——是否也对电动车市场判断失误。

Mr. Hendrikse, the Citi analyst, wrote that Ferrari’s gas-powered and hybrid models would drive profits at the company for the foreseeable future.

花旗分析师亨德里克斯在报告中写道，在可预见的未来，驱动法拉利利润增长的仍将是燃油车型和混动车型。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited New Delhi this week to reassure India of its importance, but analysts mostly saw the trip as little more than a salve applied to deep wounds inflicted by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration, and the war in Iran.

国务卿马可·鲁比奥本周访问了新德里，旨在向印度重申该国的重要性，但分析人士大多认为，此行不过是对特朗普政府在贸易、移民政策以及伊朗战争方面所造成的深深创伤起到一点慰藉作用。

President Trump’s blow-hot, blow-cold approach to India is a stark contrast from that of previous U.S. presidents, who sought to maintain good relations with India. India needs civil and stable ties with the United States, its biggest export market, and doesn’t want to attract the ire of Mr. Trump, which could disrupt its economy or jeopardize its ability to meet its enormous energy needs.

特朗普总统对印度忽冷忽热的态度与此前寻求与印度保持良好关系的历届美国总统形成了鲜明对比。美国是印度最大的出口市场，印度需要与它保持体面且稳定的关系，并且不希望惹怒特朗普，因为这可能会扰乱印度的经济，或危及印度满足本国巨大能源需求的能力。

India, which imports 90 percent of its crude oil, had come under pressure last summer after Mr. Trump slapped a punitive 25 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil. It was lifted in February after India agreed to limit purchases of Russian oil. The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz also greatly reduced India’s access to oil, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ask his fellow Indians to work from home to save fuel.

印度90%的原油依赖进口。去年夏天，由于印度购买俄罗斯石油，特朗普对印度征收了25%的惩罚性关税，这让印度承受了巨大压力。今年2月，在印度同意限制购买俄罗斯石油后，该关税被取消。伊朗战争以及霍尔木兹海峡的关闭也大大减少了印度的石油供应，促使总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁印度民众在家办公以节约燃料。

The main issue is a “lack of consistency that we have seen in the Trump administration’s engagement with India and a lack of a public commitment to this relationship,” said Harsh V. Pant, a visiting professor of international relations at King’s College London.

伦敦国王学院国际关系客座教授哈什·潘特表示，主要问题在于“我们看到特朗普政府在与印度的接触中缺乏连贯性，并且缺乏对这种双边关系的公开承诺”。

Mr. Trump has upended many of India’s assumptions about the nature of its relationship with the United States: The bedrock was an economic partnership, with a marginal role for Pakistan and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Trump’s tariffs, his close relationship with Pakistan’s leaders and his seeming desire to cultivate stronger ties with China have called all of those assumptions into question.

特朗普颠覆了印度对美印关系本质的许多预设：双方关系的基础是经济伙伴关系——巴基斯坦问题扮演边缘角色，以及两国在印太地区的合作。然而，特朗普的关税政策、他与巴基斯坦领导人的亲密关系，以及他似乎渴望与中国建立更紧密关系的做法使所有这些预设都受到了质疑。

That has left India without a framework for engagement, Mr. Pant said.

潘特表示，这使得印度在双边接触中失去了框架。

本月早些时候，美国总统特朗普在北京与中国国家主席习近平共同出席国宴。

Mr. Trump’s recent meeting with President Xi Jinping of China has added to India’s worries about its place in U.S. foreign policy. Several U.S. administrations maintained ties with India, the world’s most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies, because they saw it as a counterweight to China. India was happy to play that role, especially under Mr. Modi, who had cultivated a close relationship with Mr. Trump in his first term in office.

特朗普最近与中国国家主席习近平的会晤加剧了印度对其在美国外交政策中地位的担忧。印度是世界上人口最多的国家，也是经济增长最快的国家之一，历届美国政府都与其保持着联系，因为他们将印度视为制衡中国的力量。印度很乐意扮演这个角色，特别是在莫迪执政期间，他在特朗普的第一个任期内与特朗普培养了密切的关系。

India is concerned that it would lose its value to the United States and become dispensable once the U.S. relationship with China stabilizes, said Constantino Xavier, an expert on South Asia at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, a research institute based in New Delhi.

位于新德里的研究机构社会与经济进步中心南亚问题专家康斯坦丁诺·沙维尔表示，印度担心，一旦美国与中国的关系稳定下来，印度就会对美国失去价值，变得可有可无。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi’s meeting might not lead to anything, Mr. Xavier said, but it has made Indian officials anxious about becoming the U.S. president’s “backup plan,” to be used as a tool to threaten China when he wants. “The dispensability is increasing, and the utility is decreasing,” he said.

沙维尔指出，特朗普与习近平的会晤可能不会产生什么实质结果，但这让印度官员感到焦虑，担心本国沦为美国总统的“备用方案”，在需要时被当作威胁中国的工具。“可替代性在增加，而实用性在降低，”他说。

Mr. Rubio insisted during his visit that India was one of America’s “most strategic partners in the world.” Mr. Trump joined Mr. Rubio in doling out praise, dialing in live at a reception in New Delhi on Sunday to call Mr. Modi a “great friend,” and reassure India it could count on him.

鲁比奥在访问期间坚称，印度是美国“在世界上最具战略意义的合作伙伴”之一。特朗普也和鲁比奥一道表示赞美，周日通过电话连线参加新德里的一场招待会，称莫迪是“伟大的朋友”，并向印度保证可以指望他。

“And anything India wants, they get,” Mr. Trump said.

“只要印度想要的，他们都能得到，”特朗普说。

Many Indians say they are getting the opposite of what they want. Its students and workers have been hurt by the Trump administration’s immigration restrictions. Mr. Rubio defended the policies at a news conference, insisting that they are “not a policy targeted at Indians.”

许多印度人则表示，他们得到的恰恰与他们想要的相反。印度的学生和工人受到了特朗普政府移民限制措施的伤害。鲁比奥在新闻发布会上为这些政策进行了辩护，坚称它们“不是针对印度人的政策”。

Beyond the reassuring talk, analysts said, it’s been hard to distill what India secured from America from Mr. Rubio’s visit.

分析人士表示，除了让人宽慰的言辞之外，很难从鲁比奥此行中看清印度究竟从美国获得了什么。

“The visit was a good painkiller, but some real medicine is needed to revive the relations,” Dr. Xavier said. That medicine would involve a “fundamental political reset between both leaders,” he added, such as a visit by Mr. Trump to India or significant breakthroughs in trade and defense deals.

“这次访问是一剂很好的止痛药，但要恢复双边关系还需要真材实料的良药，”沙维尔说。他还说，这剂良药将需要“两国领导人之间根本性的政治重置”，例如特朗普访问印度，或在贸易和国防协议上取得重大突破。

The two sides did sign a framework agreement to cooperate closely on securing supplies of critical minerals. And India’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday that a U.S. delegation will visit India for another round of trade talks.

双方确实签署了一项框架协议，将在确保关键矿产供应方面密切合作。印度商务部周三表示，一个美国代表团将访问印度，进行新一轮贸易谈判。

In a measure of its concerns about its relationship with Washington, India has struck several partnerships with other countries, including the European Union trading bloc.

为缓解为对印美关系的担忧，印度已经与其他国家（包括欧盟贸易集团）达成了几项伙伴关系。

周二，鲁比奥与澳大利亚、印度和日本外长在新德里会晤后向媒体发表讲话。

The last day of Mr. Rubio’s visit was dedicated to discussing the Quad, a group of four countries — the United States, India, Japan and Australia — intended to build maritime cooperation and ensure safe routes for commerce in the Indo-Pacific. Although it was never explicitly stated, one of the Quad’s main goals was to be a check on China’s influence in the region.

鲁比奥访问的最后一天专门用于讨论四方安全对话。该机制由美国、印度、日本和澳大利亚四国组成，旨在建立海上合作并确保印太地区商业航线的安全。尽管从未明确表述过，但四方安全对话的主要目标之一就是制衡中国在该地区的影响力。

Not much appeared to materialize from this week’s daylong Quad summit. Analysts said that the group can only be functional if the United States remains an active participant. With Mr. Trump focused on his priorities in China, his level of interest in the Quad is unclear.

本周为期一天的四方安全对话峰会似乎并没有取得多少实质性成果。分析人士表示，只有在美国保持积极参与的情况下，该机制才能发挥作用。由于特朗普专注其对华优先事项，他对四方安全对话的兴趣程度尚不明确。

At the onset of the war in the Middle East, industry officials and experts warned that the closure of one of the world’s most vital maritime waterways would trigger acute shortages of oil, gas and other critical commodities. Three months into the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, those warnings are materializing across the globe.

中东战争爆发之初，业内官员和专家就警告称，全球最重要的海上航道之一一旦关闭，将引发石油、天然气及其他关键大宗商品的严重短缺。如今，在霍尔木兹海峡被封锁近三个月后，这些警告正在全球各地成为现实。

Before the war, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. The region is also among the world’s largest suppliers of products derived from oil and gas, including fertilizer and naphtha, a liquid used in everything from plastic wrap to industrial inks.

战争前，全球约四分之一的海运原油以及五分之一的液化天然气都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。该地区还是全球最大的石油与天然气衍生品供应地之一，包括化肥以及石脑油——一种用于塑料保鲜膜、工业油墨等多种产品的液态物质。

Much of the world has largely experienced the crisis through price shocks. Physical supply shortages have afflicted economies across Asia. Developing countries everywhere, especially in Asia, have been hit the hardest, as shortfalls of oil, gas and their derivatives have strained everything from farming and cooking to medical imaging. Governments across the region have rationed power, drawn down emergency stockpiles and scrambled for alternative supplies.

对世界大部分地区而言，人们主要是通过价格暴涨感受到这场危机的。亚洲多个经济体已经出现了实实在在的供应短缺。世界各地的发展中国家（尤其是亚洲国家）受到的冲击最为严重，石油、天然气及其衍生品的短缺正在冲击农业生产、日常烹饪乃至医学影像等各个领域。该地区的各国政府纷纷限电、动用应急储备，并四处寻找替代供应来源。

“It’s not just a price shock, it’s explicit shortages,” said Krishna Srinivasan, a director at the International Monetary Fund. “In the context of shortages, industry scales back, people lose their jobs, and this has a secondary impact on growth,” Mr. Srinivasan said.

“这不只是价格冲击，而是切实的商品短缺，”国际货币基金组织的一位主任克里希纳·斯里尼瓦桑说。“短缺之下，工业收缩，就业减少，继而对经济增长产生二次冲击。”

Here is the state of play in the major energy and commodity supply crunches gripping Asia and the rest of the world.

以下是困扰亚洲乃至全球的重大能源和大宗商品供应危机的最新状况。

Oil and Liquefied Natural Gas

石油与液化天然气

Countries are tapping reserves and forcing blackouts.

各国纷纷动用储备，实施限电。

停泊在阿曼附近霍尔木兹海峡的船只。

The most visible early supply shocks struck crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Both fuels depend on passage through the Strait of Hormuz from major producers like Kuwait and Qatar, with most shipments bound for buyers in Asia.

最显著的早期供应冲击发生在原油和液化天然气上。这两种燃料的主要出口国包括科威特与卡塔尔，它们都要经霍尔木兹海峡运送出去，买家大多位于亚洲。

Japan, which typically sources more than 90 percent of its oil from the region, saw crude imports plummet 67 percent in April. Singapore, which generates 95 percent of its electricity from natural gas and relies on Qatar for roughly a quarter of its liquefied natural gas imports, has issued sweeping energy-conservation guidelines across commercial districts.

日本通常从该地区采购90%以上的石油，该国4月份的原油进口量骤降了67%。新加坡95%的电力来自天然气，约四分之一的液化天然气进口依赖卡塔尔，现在新加坡已在商业区推出大规模节能措施。

While wealthier nations like Japan, Singapore and China can tap strategic reserves and outbid rivals for alternative gas supplies, developing economies have suffered the deepest disruptions. Shortfalls of gas for power generation and oil refined into diesel and gasoline have forced governments to reduce demand.

日本、新加坡和中国等较富裕的国家可以动用战略储备，并以高于竞争对手的价格购买替代天然气来源，发展中经济体则遭受了最为严重的冲击。用于发电的天然气和精炼成柴油和汽油的石油短缺已经迫使多国政府压缩需求。

In Bangladesh, starved of affordable natural gas, the government has imposed widespread rolling blackouts. Vietnam has rolled out mandatory energy rationing in industrial hubs. The Philippines declared a state of emergency in late March, shifting government operations to a shortened workweek and limiting air-conditioning in public buildings.

在孟加拉国，由于缺乏价格可承受的天然气，政府实施了大范围轮流停电。越南则在工业中心推行强制性的能源配给。菲律宾于3月底宣布进入紧急状态，政府部门缩短工作周，并限制公共建筑的空调使用。

Helium

氦气

Tech companies are paying top dollar.

科技公司正在支付高价。

The war has also upended markets for products extracted from natural gas. Among the most critical is helium, an odorless element produced as a byproduct of natural gas extraction. Before the war, Qatar supplied roughly one-third of the world’s helium.

这场战争还颠覆了从天然气中提取的产品的市场。其中最关键的是氦气，这是一种没有味道的成分，是天然气开采的副产品。战前，卡塔尔约供应全球三分之一的氦气。

Chip manufacturers use it to cool machines that etch circuits onto silicon wafers. Pharmaceutical companies rely on it for quality checks of their products. In magnetic resonance imaging machines, helium cools superconducting magnets.

芯片制造商使用氦气来冷却在硅片上蚀刻电路的机器。制药公司依赖氦气进行产品质量检查。在磁共振成像机器中，氦气被用于冷却超导磁体。

Richard Brook, chief executive of Garrison Ventures, a helium industry consultancy, said that with Qatari supplies curtailed and Russian shipments faltering, available helium was likely to be prioritized for manufacturers willing to pay top dollar — particularly semiconductor giants in South Korea and Taiwan, as well as American health care companies.

氦气行业咨询公司Garrison Ventures的CEO理查德·布鲁克表示，由于卡塔尔供应减少、俄罗斯出口陷入停滞，现有氦气很可能会优先供应给那些愿意支付高价的制造商，特别是韩国与台湾的大型半导体企业，以及美国的医疗公司。

That leaves less wealthy buyers grappling with shortages. In India, helium prices have already doubled, said Pavan Choudary, chairman of the Medical Technology Association of India. Mr. Choudary said the shortage posed an acute threat to smaller, rural hospital networks just as the country was “extending quality imaging to districts that have never had it.”

这意味着经济实力较弱的买家将面临更严峻的短缺。印度医疗技术协会主席帕万·乔杜里表示，印度市场的氦气价格已翻了一番。他指出，短缺对规模较小的农村医院网络构成严峻威胁，而印度目前正努力“把高质量医疗影像推广到过去从未拥有过这些设备的地区”。

Fertilizer

化肥

Planting crops in depleted soil as prices soar.

土地贫瘠，而化肥价格却在飙升。

越南的水稻收割场景。波斯湾是化肥的重要来源，这场冲突威胁着全球粮食供应。

The Persian Gulf is also a vital source of fertilizer, making the war a threat to global food supply. Five major exporters — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — collectively supply more than one-third of the world’s stocks of urea, the dominant form of nitrogen fertilizer.

波斯湾也是全球重要的化肥产地，这场战争因此已对全球粮食供应构成威胁。伊朗、沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋、巴林五大出口国合计供应全球逾三分之一的尿素——这是最主要的氮肥形式。

In the war’s first weeks, the strait’s closure stranded fertilizer raw materials in the Persian Gulf. Since then, damaged and idle production facilities have caused shortages of key components, driving up prices and slowing fertilizer production.

战争最初几周，霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致大量化肥原料滞留在波斯湾。之后，受损或停摆的生产设施进一步造成关键原材料短缺，推高价格并拖慢化肥生产。

Urea prices have climbed 80 percent since February, according to World Bank data. The Mosaic Company, an American agricultural giant, recently cited the soaring sulfur costs as a factor in its decision to reduce phosphate fertilizer production at plants in the United States and Brazil.

根据世界银行数据，自2月以来，尿素价格已上涨80%。美国农业巨头美盛公司最近表示，硫磺价格飙升迫使其减少美国与巴西工厂的磷肥产量。

The Food and Agriculture Organization has flagged South Asia as a region facing “extreme risk.” Farmers in countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh — unable to outbid wealthier nations for alternative cargoes — have been forced to plant crops in depleted soil. Also in danger are Africa’s smallholder farmers, who grow 70 percent of the food for sub-Saharan Africa, according to the African Development Bank.

联合国粮农组织已将南亚列为面临“极端风险”的地区。巴基斯坦、孟加拉国等国的农民因无力与富裕国家竞价抢购替代货源，只能在肥力下降的土地上继续种植作物。同样岌岌可危的还有非洲的小农户，据非洲开发银行数据，他们生产了撒哈拉以南非洲地区70%的粮食。

Naphtha

石脑油

Nearing the ‘red zone’ of shortages.

短缺正在逼近“红色警戒区”。

Oil shortages have rippled through refined products such as naphtha, a petroleum derivative used so widely in manufacturing that it is often referred to as the “flour” of industry.

石油短缺已经波及石脑油等精炼产品。石脑油是石油衍生品，由于在制造业用途极广，素有工业“面粉”之称。

Shortages have been especially pronounced in East Asia. Japan and South Korea rely heavily on imports from Qatar and Kuwait, which have been unable to export because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Even naphtha processed by Asian refineries often comes from crude shipped through the strait.

东亚的短缺尤其严重。日本和韩国严重依赖从卡塔尔和科威特进口的石脑油，但霍尔木兹海峡的关闭导致这些国家无法出口。即使是由亚洲炼油厂加工的石脑油，往往也提炼自经由该海峡运抵的原油。

In Japan, shortages have hit the printing industry, prompting major consumer brands like the snack giant Calbee to strip the color from packaging to conserve naphtha-based inks. In South Korea, major producers have cut output of naphtha-based chemicals used in plastics.

在日本，短缺已冲击印刷行业，促使卡乐比等知名消费品品牌纷纷简化包装颜色，以节省基于石脑油制造的油墨。在韩国，多家大型企业已削减用于塑料生产的石脑油化工产品产量。

Experts, including Haruhiko Sakaino, a former oil-refining official and adviser to Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, said the number of Japanese companies entering the “red zone” of production disruptions was likely to spike by June.

曾任炼油行高管、现为日本资源能源厅顾问的境野春彦等专家表示，到6月，进入生产中断“红色警戒区”的日本企业数量很可能大幅攀升。

Liquefied petroleum gas

液化石油气

Rationing gas at restaurants so families can cook.

餐馆定量用气，确保家庭用气。

等待加气的印度民众。印度每年消耗的液化石油气中，有一半以上依赖国外进口。

The Middle East is one of the world’s main exporters of liquefied petroleum gas, or L.P.G., a mixture of propane and butane widely used for cooking and heating in developing countries. The fuel is produced either by refining crude oil or from natural gas streams.

中东是世界上主要的液化石油气出口地区之一，液化石油气是丙烷与丁烷的混合物，在发展中国家广泛用于烹饪和取暖。这种燃料既可以通过原油炼制获得，也可以从天然气中提取。

Since the outbreak of the war, India has emerged as the epicenter of the resulting fuel crisis. The world’s second-largest L.P.G. importer behind China, India depends on foreign sources for more than half of the 31 million metric tons it consumes annually. Historically, most of those shipments transited the strait.

自战争爆发以来，印度已成为这场燃料危机的中心。印度是全球第二大液化石油气进口国，仅次于中国，它每年消耗3100万吨，其中一半以上依赖进口。从历史上看，这些进口大部分都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。

Even as the government scrambles for alternative sources outside the Middle East, commercial allocations have fallen to roughly 70 percent of prewar levels, India’s Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas said on Monday.

印度石油和天然气部周一表示，即便政府正四处寻找中东以外的替代来源，商业供气量已降至战前水平的70%左右。

Jet fuel

航空燃油

Higher prices attract new suppliers.

价格上涨吸引新供应商入场。

Europe has been at the forefront of concerns about a looming kerosene shortage. That’s because it is the largest buyer of jet fuel shipped through the strait.

欧洲一直处于航空煤油短缺预警的前沿，因为欧洲是经霍尔木兹海峡运输的航空燃油的最大买家。

航空燃油价格上涨引发了人们对欧洲可能出现燃油短缺的担忧。欧洲是经霍尔木兹海峡运输的航空燃油的最大买家。

The region has so far not run out of jet fuel, because surging prices have given the United States and other major suppliers an incentive to reroute shipments to European buyers. Elevated prices have also prompted European refineries to boost jet fuel production.

到目前为止，欧洲尚未耗尽航空燃油，因为价格飙升促使美国和其他主要供应商改道向欧洲买家发货。价格高涨也促使欧洲炼油厂提高航空燃油的产量。

Still, those same high costs have forced major carriers, including Lufthansa and KLM, to cut flights. And higher fares have deterred some travelers. As a result, European air traffic is about 5 percent lower than it otherwise would have been, the International Energy Agency estimates.

然而，居高不下的成本已迫使汉莎、荷航等主要航司削减航班，高昂票价也令部分旅客望而却步。国际能源署估计，这已使欧洲航空客运量较正常水平下降约5%。