The first sign that something unusual was unfolding in the Solomon Islands was when the Chinese police showed up at Fighter One, a quiet village ringed with banana trees.

所罗门群岛发生了一些不寻常的事，首先是中国警察出现在被香蕉树环绕的安静村庄“战斗机一号”。

The Chinese officers gathered villagers on a grassy patch and proposed a system they said would help keep them safe. They suggested that the residents fill out cards providing the names, addresses and dates of birth for each household member. They recommended collecting fingerprints and palm prints — both highly unusual and legally dubious in a country lacking laws governing personal data collection.

中国警官把村民们召集到一片草地上，提出了一套他们称有助于确保村民安全的系统。他们建议居民填写卡片，提供每个家庭成员的姓名、地址和出生日期。他们还建议收集指纹和掌纹——在一个缺乏相关法律管理个人数据收集的国家，这既罕见，又在法律上存在争议。

Under China’s leader, Xi Jinping, Beijing has tried to export its ideas about security to the world in countries like the Solomon Islands, a Pacific nation 3,000 miles away. Where Washington offers treaties that commit American troops to defend U.S. allies against external threats, Beijing offers something different: equipment and tactics for governments to keep order at home.

在中国领导人习近平的领导下，北京一直试图将其安全理念输出到世界各地，比如所罗门群岛这样距离其4800多公里外的太平洋国家。华盛顿提供的是承诺派遣美国军队保卫美国盟友免受外部威胁的条约，而北京提供的则有所不同：供政府在本国维持秩序的设备和战术。

That pitch has appealed to many authoritarian and weak democratic states in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central Asia that view domestic threats to regime security as an equal, if not bigger, priority than fielding an army.

这一推销吸引了非洲、东南亚和中亚的许多威权国家和弱民主国家，这些国家将对政权安全的国内威胁视为与组建军队同等重要、甚至更大的优先事项。

But the Solomon Islands, which had signed a security pact with China in 2022, is also emerging as an early test of the limits of China’s efforts.

但2022年与中国签署安全协议的所罗门群岛也正成为测试中国此类努力极限的早期试金石。

去年，中国警察到访霍尼亚拉的“战斗机一号”社区，照片由所罗门群岛警方提供。

China’s policing in the Solomon Islands has gone hand in hand with the growth of its mining and other businesses, and the need for Beijing to protect its interests overseas.

中国在所罗门群岛的警务工作与其采矿及其他业务的增长，以及北京保护其海外利益的需求密不可分。

The effort is more than just about technology and policing tactics, it is as much about spreading an ideology centered on state control.

这一努力不仅仅关乎技术和警务战术，它同样关乎传播一种以国家控制为核心的意识形态。

When they visited Fighter One, the Chinese police were responding to a request from the community to help keep rowdy young men and boys from coming to their village at night and getting buzzed on betel nut and a potent moonshine called kwaso.

中国警察来到“战斗机一号”村是应社区的要求，当地人希望他们帮助阻止一群粗野的男性青年和小孩夜里来到他们的村庄，在槟榔和一种名为kwaso的烈性私酿酒的作用下到处惹事。

Their solution was to introduce an obscure Mao-era community surveillance system: the Fengqiao Experience.

他们的解决方案是引入源自毛泽东时代的一种鲜为人知的社区监视系统：“枫桥经验”。

Named after Fengqiao, a town in eastern China, the system encouraged neighbors to spy and snitch on one another to root out political enemies. The system has been revived under Mr. Xi as part of a push to snuff out any challenges to the Chinese Communist Party.

该系统因中国东部小镇枫桥而得名，它鼓励邻里之间互相监视和告密，以根除政治敌人。在习近平的领导下，该系统已经重新焕发活力，用于消除一切对中国共产党的挑战。

In China, the system calls for the police to monitor individual households in sprawling apartment complexes, in one example assigning each unit a color code that denoted whether occupants presented a security risk. The police have also visited the homes of minority groups like Tibetans and Uyghurs to promote party policies. Government workers have visited churches to give “anti-cult” lectures. And companies are required to register their employees in police databases.

在中国，该系统要求警方对遍布公寓大楼的各个家庭进行监控，例如，为每户分配一个颜色编码，以此表示住户是否构成了安全风险。警方还走访了藏族和维吾尔族等少数民族的家庭，以宣传党的政策。政府工作人员走访教会，发表了“反邪教”演讲。企业也被要求将其员工登记在警方的数据库中。

The idea of introducing such a heavy-handed style of state surveillance in the Solomon Islands alarmed local politicians and observers in nearby countries like Australia, who worried it could give the government the tools to stifle freedoms.

在所罗门群岛引入这样一种高压手段的国家监视理念令当地政治人士以及澳大利亚等邻国的观察人士感到震惊，他们担心这可能会给政府提供压制自由的工具。

The Fengqiao pilot was suspended after an outcry. And the election this month of Matthew Wale, a prime minister who has historically been skeptical of Beijing, raises questions about China’s foothold in the country, and whether its ideas travel as easily as the party hopes.

枫桥试点项目在遭到强烈抗议后被暂停。而本月选举出的总理马修·瓦莱历史上一直对北京持怀疑态度，这让人们对中国在该国的立足点，以及其理念是否能如党所期望的那样轻易传播产生了疑问。

A Model Police State

一个模范警察国家

China has cast itself as a model of policing for other countries to emulate, pointing to low rates of violent crime as proof of its success.

中国将自己塑造成其他国家效仿的警务模范，并将低暴力犯罪率视为其成功的证据。

But the vast security apparatus that keeps citizens safe is frequently deployed to crush political dissent.

但是，维持公民安全的庞大安全机构经常被用来压制政治异见。

From the start, each citizen is assigned a household registration card that restricts where that person can live. Movement within the country is monitored by a growing network of surveillance cameras, many of which are equipped with artificial intelligence software that can recognize not only faces but also the way a person walks.

从一开始，每位公民都会被分配一张限制其居住地的户口登记卡。国内的流动受到日益扩大的监视摄像头网络的监控，其中许多摄像头配备了人工智能软件，不仅可以识别人脸，还可以识别一个人的行走方式。

In once-restive areas of China like the western region of Xinjiang, millions of Uyghurs have been subjected to biometric data harvesting that included giving DNA samples, iris scans and voice pattern samples.

在中国曾经动荡的西部地区新疆，数百万维吾尔族人接受了生物识别数据采集，包括提供DNA样本、虹膜扫描和声音模式样本。

All of this is necessary in the eyes of the party, which sees its legitimacy as tied to its ability to preserve social order.

在党看来，所有这些都是必要的，党将其执政合法性与维护社会秩序的能力联系在了一起。

Countries with like-minded governments have been welcoming the opportunity to use China’s assistance to entrench their power.

志同道合的政府一直乐于抓住这个机会，利用中国的协助来巩固其权力。

When Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, visited Beijing this year, the governments pledged to work closely to safeguard “political security.” Mr. Xi told Mr. Lam that they shared an interest in defending the “the ruling position of the Communist Party.” With Cambodia, China pledged in April to work on “jointly resisting external infiltration and preventing ‘color revolutions’,” — code for pro-democracy movements or popular uprisings that Beijing views as Western-backed plots to destabilize one-party rule.

当越南领导人苏林今年访问北京时，两国政府承诺将密切合作以维护“政治安全”。习近平告诉苏林，他们在维护“共产党执政地位”方面有着共同利益。对于柬埔寨，中国在4月承诺将致力于“携手抵御外部渗透，防范‘颜色革命’”——“颜色革命”是亲民主运动或民众起义的代名词，北京将这些运动视为西方支持的旨在破坏一党执政的阴谋。

霍尼亚拉的中央市场是岛上最大的市场。中国努力向5000公里外的太平洋国家所罗门群岛输出其安全理念，表明其希望提供一种不同于美国及其安全同盟体系的替代方案。

China is training police forces in many developing countries. Since 2000, it has held nearly 900 training sessions including on counterterrorism, riot control and border control, for at least 138 countries, according to a study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

中国正在对许多发展中国家的警察部队进行培训。根据卡内基国际和平基金会的一项研究，自2000年以来，中国已为至少138个国家举办了近900场培训，内容包括反恐、防暴控制和边境控制。

“China is trying to rewrite the standards of what global security is and which countries are the best at providing it,” said Sheena Chestnut Greitens, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin and one of the authors of the Carnegie report.

得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政治学家、卡内基报告作者之一希娜·切斯特纳特·格雷滕斯说：“中国正试图改写全球安全的标准，以及哪些国家最擅长提供这种安全。”

It has embedded its officers in police forces in the Central African Republic and the Pacific island nations of Vanuatu and Kiribati. It provided thousands of surveillance cameras to Ecuador in 2011 that enabled the country’s domestic intelligence agency to better monitor political opponents.

中国已将其警官派驻到中非共和国以及太平洋岛国瓦努阿图和基里巴斯的警察部队中。2011年，它向厄瓜多尔提供了数千个监视摄像头，使该国的国内情报机构能够更好地监控政治对手。

And it trained a unit of South African police in 2016 that was later deployed to intimidate and assassinate political rivals of then-President Jacob Zuma, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a Washington-based organization that is part of the U.S. Department of Defense.

根据非洲战略研究中心（一家总部位于华盛顿、隶属于美国国防部的组织）的数据，中国还在2016年培训了一支南非警察部队，该部队后来被部署用于恐吓和刺杀时任总统雅各布·祖马的政治对手。

China may be seeking to improve the global public image of its authoritarian model by exporting its police training.

中国可能正寻求通过输出其警察培训来改善其威权模式在全球的公众形象。

“It allows China to portray their system as a public safety success rather than a human rights failure,” Ms. Greitens said.

格雷滕斯说：“这让中国能够将其系统描绘成公共安全的成功，而不是人权的失败。”

A Pacific Laboratory

一个太平洋实验室

China scored its biggest victory in the Solomon Islands in 2019 when the government there severed decades of diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of recognizing Beijing. That opened the floodgates for Chinese financial support, trade and investment.

2019年，中国在所罗门群岛取得了最大的胜利，当时该国政府断绝了与台湾数十年的外交关系，转而承认北京。这为中国的资金支持、贸易和投资打开了闸门。

The switch, as the change is referred to by residents, raised concerns in Australia, the United States and other Western allies about Beijing encroaching on their traditional sphere of influence.

被居民们称为“转换”的这一转变引发了澳大利亚、美国和其他西方盟友对北京蚕食其传统势力范围的担忧。

It also inflamed long-standing tensions between residents of the more developed island of Guadalcanal, the site of the capital, Honiara, and those from the poorer island of Malaita, which had maintained closer ties to Taiwan through farming and medical programs.

这也加剧了首都霍尼亚拉所在的较发达岛屿瓜达尔卡纳尔岛居民与较贫困岛屿马莱塔岛居民之间长期存在的紧张关系，后者曾通过农业和医疗项目与台湾保持更密切的联系。

Those tensions erupted into deadly riots in 2021 that targeted Honiara’s more than century-old Chinese community, who represent less than 2 percent of the city’s population of about 170,000, but dominate storefronts selling household goods, groceries and alcohol and also control lucrative logging and mining interests.

这些紧张关系在2021年爆发成了致命的暴乱，袭击目标针对霍尼亚拉一个有几百年历史的华人社区。华人在该市约17万人口中占比不足2%，但在开设销售日用品、杂货和酒类的店面方面占据主导地位，并控制着利润丰厚的伐木和采矿利益。

Protesters, mainly migrants from Malaita, tried to storm the personal residence of the prime minister at the time, Manasseh Sogavare. The unrest prompted Mr. Sogavare to sign the security pact with Beijing the following year, justifying it as a way to combat “hard internal threats.” He also dismissed his country’s traditional security partner, Australia, as “inadequate.”

主要来自马莱塔岛移民的示威者试图冲击时任总理梅纳西·索加瓦雷的私人住宅。这场动荡促使索加瓦雷在次年与北京签署了安全协议，并辩称这是打击“严峻内部威胁”的一种方式。他还斥责该国传统的安全合作伙伴澳大利亚“不称职”。

霍尼亚拉唐人街华人拥有的大楼在骚乱中被破坏。霍尼亚拉中国大使馆外的一名保安。

A copy of the pact has never been publicly released. But excerpts leaked online show that the agreement allows the Solomon Islands to request that China send “police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces” to restore social order and protect Chinese personnel and projects in the country. (Australia also has a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, though its focus has shifted in recent years from maintaining law and order toward providing police training.)

该协议的副本从未公开发布。但网上泄露的摘要显示，该协议允许所罗门群岛请求中国派遣“警察、武警、军事人员和其他执法及武装力量”前往恢复社会秩序，并保护在该国的中国人员和项目。（澳大利亚也与所罗门群岛签署了安全协议，不过其近年来的重点已从维持法律与秩序转向了提供警察培训。）

Beijing embedded its first batch of police in the Royal Solomon Island Police Force in 2022. Around the same time, China donated riot gear worth $1.5 million that included bulletproof vests, shields, helmets and stab-resistant suits and gloves. Photographs on the Solomon Islands government website show Chinese police training local police how to wield batons and anti-riot forks, a tool commonly seen in China that is about the length of a pitchfork with a U-shaped prong to pin down a suspect.

北京于2022年将其第一批警察派驻到所罗门群岛皇家警察部队中。大约在同一时间，中国捐赠了价值150万美元的防暴装备，包括防弹衣、盾牌、头盔以及防刺服和手套。所罗门群岛政府网站上的照片显示中国警察在培训当地警察如何使用警棍和防暴叉，后者是一种在中国常见的工具，长度与草叉差不多，带有可以制服嫌疑人的U形叉齿。

The presence of the Chinese police is just another example of how Beijing is advancing its interests in a country that lacks the power and clout to say “no,” says Peter Kenilorea Jr., who was a longtime opposition politician when we interviewed him late last year in Honiara, and is now in the new prime minister’s cabinet, overseeing national planning.

小彼得·肯尼洛雷亚表示，中国警察的存在不过是北京在一个无力也无底气说“不”的国家推进自身利益的又一例证。去年年底我们采访他时，他还是一名资深反对派政客；如今他已进入新任总理的内阁，主管国家规划事务。

He argued that the power imbalance has also allowed Chinese firms in mining and timber, two of the Solomon Island’s biggest industries, to raze forests and pollute rivers with mining runoff while using illegal ports to evade government fees, with little consequence.

他辩称，权力的不平衡还使得在采矿和木材（所罗门群岛最大的两个产业）领域的中国企业得以砍伐森林并用采矿径流污染河流，同时利用非法港口来逃避政府费用，却几乎不需要承担任何后果。

The Chinese “come and they do their own thing,” said Mr. Kenilorea, who opposed the switch from Taiwan to Beijing and whose father was the Solomon Islands’s first leader after gaining independence. “It’s like open season.”

肯尼洛雷亚说，中国人“来这里做他们自己的事情”。这位所罗门群岛独立后的第一位领导人的儿子反对从台湾转向北京。“这就像是狩猎开放季。”

Are You Fengqiao Experienced?

你体验过枫桥经验吗？

The China Police Liaison Team, as they are formally called, operate out of the Rove Police Headquarters in Honiara, a humid, weather-beaten capital city where diesel fumes from the vehicles that clog the lone highway hang heavy in the air.

这支正式名称为“中国警务顾问组”的队伍在霍尼亚拉的罗夫警察总部开展工作。霍尼亚拉是一座气候潮湿、饱经风霜的首都城市，拥堵在唯一一条高速公路上的车辆排出的柴油废气在空气中弥漫。

Beijing’s presence stands out among the rows of low-slung concrete and corrugated-steel buildings. There’s a Chinese-built sports stadium and a hospital. Chinese foremen working for Chinese state-owned construction companies are supervising the paving of roads. Chinese people run hair salons, massage parlors and restaurants serving dim sum and hot pot.

在一排排低矮的混凝土和波纹钢建筑中，北京的存在格外引人注目。那里有一个中国建造的体育场和一家医院。为中国国有建筑公司工作的中国工长正在监督道路的铺设。中国人经营着美发沙龙、按摩店以及供应小吃和火锅的餐馆。

由国有企业中国土木工程集团有限公司承建的道路项目。

The 10 or so members of the Chinese police team are seconded in the Solomon Islands for months on end before being rotated out. They seemed to keep largely to themselves. Members of the Chinese community who spoke to The Times said they did not recall seeing the police around much.

这支由大约10名成员组成的中国警察团队会在所罗门群岛驻扎数月后轮换。他们大部分时间似乎并不和外界接触。与《纽约时报》交谈的华人社区成员表示，他们印象里不常见到这些警察出没。

The police team has been held up by Chinese state propaganda as an example of the country’s benevolence toward its neighbors as a regional power. The People’s Public Security University of China, a national police university, published an article in 2024 describing the officers as roughing it so that poor villagers could benefit from the wisdom of the Fengqiao Experience.

该警察团队已被中国官方宣传奉为该国作为地区大国对邻国展现善意的典范。中国人民公安大学在2024年发表的一篇文章将这些警官描述为在艰苦的环境中生活，以便贫困的村民能够从枫桥经验的智慧中获益。

Team members suffered from infections because of a lack of medical care in remote areas. Their rooms were infested with “mosquitoes, centipedes, rats, and cockroaches.” They ate mostly “bread, biscuits, and locally produced cassava.”

团队成员因偏远地区缺乏医疗服务而染病。他们的房间里满是“蚊虫、蜈蚣、老鼠、蟑螂”。他们主要吃“面包、饼干和当地出产的木薯”。

At the same time, the Solomon Islands government website has been filled with news releases showing Chinese police shaking hands with local officials, donating clothes and sports equipment to villagers, serving tea to university students, putting on drone shows and kung fu demonstrations and holding PowerPoint presentations.

与此同时，所罗门群岛政府网站上充斥着新闻稿，展示中国警察与当地官员握手、向村民捐赠衣服和体育器材、送茶给大学生、举办无人机表演和功夫演示以及PowerPoint宣讲。

霍尼亚拉一所由华人运营的社区学校——中华学校——的二年级课堂。霍尼亚拉的唐人街。接受《纽约时报》采访的华人社区成员表示，他们印象里不常见到这些警察出没。

Analysts say the support helps address a shortage of resources, but it was unclear if China’s influx of aid would benefit the Solomon Islands over the long term.

分析人士表示，这些支持有助于解决资源短缺的问题，但目前尚不清楚涌入的中国援助长期来看是否会使所罗门群岛受益。

Virginia Comolli, head of the Pacific Program at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, who coauthored a recent report on Chinese policing and interviewed residents of Fighter One, found instances in which donated Chinese police vehicles had sat idle because there was not enough money for fuel, or there were no spare parts to repair them.

打击跨国有组织犯罪全球倡议太平洋项目负责人弗吉尼亚·科莫利近日与人合著了一份关于中国警务的报告，并采访了“战斗机一号”村的居民，她发现了捐赠的中国警车存在闲置的情况，因为没有足够的资金购买燃油，或者没有零部件来维修。

“They’re getting lots of donations, but the crux of the matter is always, is this sustainable?” Ms. Comolli said.

科莫利说：“他们得到了很多捐赠，但问题的关键始终是，这具有可持续性吗？”

Other donations from China include two police speedboats valued at over $400,000, an anti-riot vehicle equipped with a water cannon, and equipment to open a forensic autopsy laboratory.

来自中国的其他捐赠包括两艘价值超过40万美元的警察巡逻艇、一辆配备水炮的防暴车以及建设法医尸检实验室所需的设备。

Some residents say they are willing to give China a chance. Anything, they say, is better than the status quo in the Solomon Islands, which the United Nations has named one of the 44 least developed countries in the world.

一些居民表示，他们愿意给中国一个机会。他们说，无论如何总比所罗门群岛的现状要好——联合国已将该国列为全球44个最不发达国家之一。

“We’ve been depending on different countries for so long,” yet nothing has improved, said Jacqueline Maeli, 43, a resident of Tasahe B, a hilltop community of makeshift homes in Guadalcanal that was visited by the Chinese police team last summer.

“我们长期以来一直依赖不同的国家，”然而一切都没有改善，43岁的杰奎琳·马埃利说。她是瓜达尔卡纳尔岛上由临时房屋组成的半山腰社区Tasahe B的居民，中国警察团队去年夏天曾到访过该社区。

Ms. Maeli, who wore a secondhand T-shirt that read “China Fantastic,” is agnostic about what flag the police fly.

身穿写着“精彩中国”字样的二手T恤的马埃利对警察挂着什么旗帜并不在乎。

“Whichever government that helps and makes this country work better, I’ll go with it,” she said.

她说：“无论是哪个政府，只要能提供帮助并让这个国家运转得更好，我就支持它。”

The Backlash

反弹

When the news emerged that the Chinese police team had visited Fighter One and proposed collecting fingerprints and other data, some Solomon Islanders expressed concerns.

当有消息传出中国警察团队访问了“战斗机一号”村并提出收集指纹和其他数据时，一些所罗门群岛人表达了担忧。

Celsus Talifilu, who is now serving as special secretary to the new prime minister, wrote a blog post arguing that the police had no authority to collect vast amounts of personal information, register individual biometric data, or conduct neighborhood surveillance.

如今是新任总理特别秘书的塞尔苏斯·塔利菲卢撰写了一篇博客文章，指出警察无权收集大量的个人信息、登记个人的生物识别数据或进行社区监视。

Mr. Talifilu wrote that the Fengqiao model’s emphasis on monitoring and coercion threatened social harmony and local customs such as having village chiefs resolve conflicts and disputes.

塔利菲卢写道，枫桥模式对监控和强迫的强调威胁到了社会和谐以及当地由村长解决冲突和纠纷的习俗。

“This is against our norms,” he said in an interview in Honiara. “People will not take lightly to being spied on by their neighbors.”

他在霍尼亚拉接受采访时说：“这违背了我们的规范。被邻居监视可不是小事。”

在霍尼亚拉港口等渡轮的人群。

In Australia, a newspaper ran an editorial criticizing the Chinese police team’s actions in the Solomon Islands. Security analysts at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute wrote that “the risk is that the Solomon Islands becomes a proving ground for authoritarian practices under the guise of community service.”

一家澳大利亚报纸发表社论，批评中国警察团队在所罗门群岛的行为。澳大利亚战略政策研究所的安全分析师写道，“风险在于所罗门群岛在社区服务的幌子下成为了威权实践的试验场。”

China’s propaganda organs pushed back. The Global Times described Western reactions as “the discomfort of former colonial powers whose exclusive influence in the Pacific is no longer assured.” It also said China was not imposing the Fengqiao model on the Solomon Islands; it was merely offering it up as something to consider.

中国的宣传机构进行了反击。《环球时报》将西方的反应形容为“前殖民大国的不适，他们在太平洋的排他性影响力已不再得到保证”。它还表示，中国并没有将枫桥模式强加给所罗门群岛；它仅仅是将其作为可供考虑的选择提出来。

The Solomon Islands police issued a statement on Facebook asserting that the Fengqiao pilot program was locally led and not introduced at the behest of China. It denied that the program was about “surveillance or coercion” and said no data would be transferred to any “foreign authority.”

所罗门群岛警方在Facebook上发表声明，断言枫桥试点计划是由当地主导的，并不是应中国的要求引入的。它否认该计划关乎“监视或强迫”，并表示没有任何数据会被转移给任何“外国当局”。

The Solomon Islands police and the Chinese Embassy in Honiara did not respond to requests for interviews.

所罗门群岛警方和中国驻霍尼亚拉大使馆未对采访请求做出回应。

Following the furor, the Fengqiao pilot program at Fighter One was suspended. No biometric data was ever shared. The noisy youth remain a problem.

轩然大波之后，“战斗机一号”村的枫桥试点计划被暂停。没有任何生物识别数据被分享。喧闹的青年仍然是一个问题。

Some residents said they would still welcome having the Chinese police play a role in their community, which houses some of Honiara’s professional elite, including lawyers, judges and doctors.

一些居民表示，他们仍然欢迎中国警察在他们的社区发挥作用，该社区居住着霍尼亚拉的一些白领精英，包括律师、法官和医生。

“战斗机一号”社区玩耍的孩童。

“We are open minded,” said Pedical Togamae, 42, an emergency room doctor, who built his two-story home shaded with trees from scratch after purchasing a plot of land in Fighter One in 2013, when there were no roads leading to the village.

42岁的急诊室医生佩迪卡尔·托加马埃说：“我们持开放态度。”2013年他在“战斗机一号”村购买了一块土地，当时那里还没有通往村子的道路，他从头开始建造了自己的这座绿树掩映的两层住宅。

Mr. Togamae said the local police are so short on staff that they cannot be relied upon to show up. If giving his fingerprints to the Chinese police team would help end the nightly nuisance, he would gladly oblige.

托加马埃说，当地警方人员极度匮乏，以至于无法指望他们出现。如果把他的指纹交给中国警察团队能有助于结束每晚的滋扰，他会非常乐意配合。

“We just want a peaceful community,” Mr. Togamae said.

托加马埃说：“我们只想要一个安静的社区。”

Just two years ago, Google looked like it was in trouble. In a desperate move to play catch-up with the OpenAI chatbot that had upended the tech industry, the search giant debuted an unpolished version of its artificial intelligence on Google.com. The A.I. spat out shoddy information, including advice for people to eat rocks and put glue on their pizza.

仅仅在两年前，谷歌似乎还深陷困境。为了拼命追赶颠覆了整个科技行业的OpenAI聊天机器人，这家搜索巨头在Google.com上推出了一个尚未打磨完善的人工智能版本。该系统输出了许多极其糟糕的信息，包括建议人们吃石头，以及在披萨上抹胶水。

Google’s reign over the internet seemed at risk.

谷歌对互联网的统治地位似乎摇摇欲坠。

But today, consensus is forming in Silicon Valley not only that Google has recovered and caught up but that it could actually win the A.I. race, a testament to how so much can change in so little time.

但在今天，硅谷正形成一种共识：谷歌不仅已经恢复元气并实现了赶超，而且实际上有可能赢得这场人工智能竞赛。这证明即使在短短时间内也可以发生巨大的变化。

Google announced on Tuesday at Google I/O, its conference for software developers, that in only one year the number of people regularly using its chatbot, Gemini, had more than doubled to 900 million, on a par with OpenAI’s self-reported number of active users for ChatGPT and nearly 30 times the estimated web traffic of Anthropic’s Claude chatbot, which is more focused on business customers.

谷歌在周二的软件开发者大会Google I/O上宣布，在短短一年内，定期使用其聊天机器人Gemini的人数增加了一倍多，达到9亿人。这一数字与OpenAI自报的ChatGPT活跃用户数持平，且几乎是Anthropic旗下更侧重企业客户的Claude聊天机器人预估网络流量的30倍。

And unlike Anthropic and OpenAI, which are still losing money from operating expensive A.I. data centers, Google is rapidly developing ways to use A.I. to increase profit with online advertising, its bread and butter. In its last quarter, Google reported, its advertising revenue rose 16 percent to $77 billion, fueled by A.I. technology that has helped marketers collect deeper information about users’ interests.

与仍在因运营昂贵的人工智能数据中心而亏损的Anthropic和OpenAI不同，谷歌正在迅速开发新方法，利用人工智能来增加其核心业务网络广告利润。谷歌报告称，在上一个季度，由于人工智能技术帮助营销人员收集了关于用户兴趣的更深层次信息，其广告收入增长了16%，达到770亿美元。

Pretty soon, Gemini will become a staple on a competitor’s platform: Apple’s iPhone. Google and Apple said in January that Gemini would become the foundational A.I. technology for a future version of Siri, Apple’s voice assistant. Gemini is already included on Android devices, so the partnership with Apple will, in effect, bake Gemini into virtually all of the world’s phones.

Gemini很快将成为竞品平台苹果iPhone上的核心配置。谷歌和苹果在1月份表示，Gemini将成为苹果语音助手Siri未来版本的底层人工智能技术。由于Gemini已经内置于安卓设备中，因此与苹果的合作实际上将把Gemini植入全球几乎所有的手机中。

At I/O this week, Google shared its vision for how it would use A.I. to increase sales for online retailers, including through a new type of shopping cart that automatically surfaces promotions to shoppers.

在本周的I/O大会上，谷歌分享了利用人工智能增加在线零售商销量的愿景，其中包括一种新型购物车，可自动向购物者推送促销信息。

The company also said it was continuing to add its A.I. into tools that people use every day — for instance, by letting a person using Google Docs ask Gemini to draft a speech that includes personal anecdotes and jokes.

该公司还表示，它将继续把人工智能融入人们日常使用的工具中——例如，允许谷歌文档用户要求Gemini起草一份包含个人轶事和笑话的演讲稿。

“If I had to put a wager on the biggest winner of A.I., I would say it’s Google,” said Gary Rivlin, a former New York Times reporter who wrote a book about the tech industry’s race to cash in on A.I.

“如果让我押注谁是人工智能最大的赢家，我会说是谷歌，”《纽约时报》前记者加里·里夫林表示，他曾写过一本关于科技行业竞相从人工智能中获利的书。

“If you asked me that same question a year and a half ago, the answer wouldn’t have been Google,” he added.

“如果你在一年半前问我同样的问题，答案绝不会是谷歌，”他还说。

Google’s success with Gemini is a case study in how even a juggernaut can seemingly transform itself overnight to remain dominant. But past incumbents faced with similar existential threats did not have the same story.

谷歌在Gemini上取得的成功是一个经典案例研究，展示了即使是行业巨头，似乎也能在一夜之间完成自我转型，从而保持主导地位。然而，过去那些面临类似生存威胁的老牌巨头却没能得到这样的成功

About 15 years ago, Microsoft, whose leadership in personal computing was challenged by the rise of Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android ecosystems, failed to stay relevant in the mobile phone era even after releasing its Windows Phone devices and acquiring the handset maker Nokia for $7.2 billion. Microsoft remains extremely profitable thanks to business customers, and it has a large video game business, but it no longer leads the pack among consumers.

大约15年前，微软在个人电脑领域的领导地位受到了苹果iPhone和谷歌安卓生态系统崛起的挑战。即使推出了Windows Phone设备，并以72亿美元收购了手机制造商诺基亚，微软也没能在移动电话时代保持竞争力。得益于企业客户以及庞大的电子游戏业务，微软依然盈利丰厚，但在消费者市场中已不再领跑。

(The Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied the suit’s claims.)

（《纽约时报》已对OpenAI和微软提起诉讼，指控其侵犯了与人工智能系统相关的新闻内容版权。这两家公司均否认了诉讼中的指控。）

Instead of isolating Gemini, Google reinvented itself by blending A.I. into all of its most important products. To name a few: There is a team working on Gemini for Gmail, another working on Gemini inside Google Maps and yet another focused on the Gemini chatbot app.

谷歌并没有将Gemini孤立起来，而是通过将人工智能融入其所有最重要的产品，从而实现自我重塑。例如：有一个团队正致力于将Gemini应用于Gmail，一个团队致力于将Gemini整合到谷歌地图中，还有一个团队专注于Gemini聊天机器人应用本身的开发。

Google is also in a position to use A.I. to capitalize on the travel industry. Gemini is the only chatbot with native access to Google Flights and Google Hotels for looking up airfare and lodging, which makes it a superior travel agent.

谷歌也具备利用人工智能在旅游业中获利的条件。Gemini是唯一能够原生接入谷歌航班和谷歌酒店以查询机票和住宿的聊天机器人，这使它成为一个更优秀的旅行顾问。

To put it another way: What Google has that other A.I. companies lack is cultural cachet. And with the Gemini model integrated into so many popular services that people rely on every day for work and play, Google has made it much more likely that people will interact with its A.I., said Carolina Milanesi, the president of Creative Strategies, a consumer technology research firm.

换句话说：谷歌拥有其他人工智能公司所缺乏的东西——文化威望。消费科技研究公司创意战略的总裁卡罗琳娜·米拉内西表示，随着Gemini模型被整合到人们日常工作和娱乐所依赖的众多热门服务中，谷歌极大地增加了人们与其人工智能进行互动的可能性。

“It’s not about just how good the model is, but where it is and how easy it is for people to discover Gemini and then use it and get value,” Ms. Milanesi said.

“这不仅仅在于模型有多好，而是在于它所在的位置，以及人们能否轻松发现Gemini、使用它、并且从中获得价值，”米拉内西说。

Google clearly leaned into its advantages to improve its technology. It made A.I.-generated answers a permanent fixture on Google.com — still the most visited website in the world — without giving users the ability to opt out of seeing them.

谷歌显然利用了自身优势来改进其技术。它将人工智能生成的答案作为固定内容呈现于至今仍是全球访问量最大网站Google.com，且没有给用户提供关闭该功能的选项。

Despite making glaring mistakes about the nutritional value of rocks, among other errors, in its early days, Google quickly honed the model. But there is still some work to do. A recent analysis from The Times concluded that Google’s A.I.-generated responses were correct 90 percent of the time. Google disputed the study and argued that its answers were more accurate.

尽管在早期犯下了关于石头的营养价值等显而易见的错误，谷歌还是迅速优化了该模型。不过仍有一些工作要做。《纽约时报》最近的一项分析得出结论，谷歌人工智能生成的回答准确率为90%。谷歌对这项研究提出了异议，并坚称其回答更加准确。

“They just have this reach that few, if any, companies on Earth have,” Mr. Rivlin said. “Looking for the next Google? It’s probably Google.”

“他们拥有这种地球上极少数公司才拥有的触达能力，”里夫林说。“寻找下一个谷歌？那可能还是谷歌。”

Toshifumi Suzuki, the convenience store pioneer who built 7-Eleven into a fixture of daily life in Japan, died on May 18. He was 93.

将7-Eleven打造成日本日常生活中不可或缺之物的便利店先驱铃木敏文于5月18日去世，享年93岁。

Seven & i, the Japanese operator of the 7-Eleven franchise, where Mr. Suzuki served as an honorary adviser, confirmed the death and said the cause was heart failure. It did not say where he died.

铃木俊文曾任名誉顾问的7-Eleven特许经营店日本运营商——柒和伊控股证实了这一消息，并表示其死因为心力衰竭。该公司没有透露他去世的地点。

Over four decades leading 7-Eleven Japan, Mr. Suzuki transformed the business from a single store on Tokyo’s eastern bay into an empire with tens of thousands of locations. Known as a relentless innovator, he introduced many hallmarks of the modern Japanese convenience store — from in-store banking to crisp seaweed-wrapped rice balls — that are beloved by many in Japan and abroad.

在执掌日本7-Eleven的40多年里，铃木俊文把一家位于东京湾东侧的单店发展成拥有数万家门店的商业帝国。他以永不停歇的创新者闻名，引入了许多现代日本便利店的标志性元素——从店内银行服务到包着脆海苔的饭团——这些东西如今不仅深受日本人喜爱，也吸引了海外消费者。

Since Mr. Suzuki’s resignation in 2016, 7-Eleven has struggled to maintain its footing. In recent years, the company has faced stagnant profitability, a tumultuous takeover bid from a Canadian rival and the challenge of bringing in a new chief executive to revive growth. Some in the company have lamented that its culture of creativity has ebbed since Mr. Suzuki’s departure.

2016年铃木卸任后，7-Eleven开始步履维艰。近年来，公司面临利润增长停滞、加拿大竞争对手发出收购要约的惊涛骇浪，以及聘请一位新首席执行官来重振增长所面临的挑战。公司内部有人感叹，自从铃木离开后，那种充满创造力的企业文化也逐渐消退了。

Born in Nagano Prefecture, northwest of Tokyo, Mr. Suzuki worked in publishing sales before he was recruited by Masatoshi Ito, the founder of Ito-Yokado, a major retail chain in Japan. Mr. Suzuki joined the company and became a director in 1971.

铃木出生于位于东京西北的长野县，曾从事出版销售工作，后被日本大型零售连锁伊藤洋华堂的创始人伊藤雅俊招入麾下。铃木加入该公司，并于1971年成为董事。

Not long after, Mr. Suzuki spotted an American convenience store chain called 7-Eleven, operated by the Dallas-based Southland Corporation, and saw an opportunity to bring it to Japan. At the time, many were skeptical that American-style convenience stores could succeed in a market dominated by small mom-and-pop shops.

不久之后，铃木注意到了一家来自美国的便利店连锁——当时由总部位于达拉斯的Southland Corporation运营，并从中看到了将其引进日本的商机。彼时，许多人对美式便利店能否在一个以夫妻小店为主导的市场中站稳脚跟普遍持怀疑态度。

Mr. Suzuki was undeterred. His longtime motto was “adapt to change,” a credo he said had emerged from his experience during World War II, when, as a junior high school student, his life was suddenly upended.

铃木却毫不动摇。他毕生奉行的信条是“顺应变化”——他说，这一信念源于二战期间的亲身经历：当时还只是初中生的他，人生突然被战争彻底打乱。

In 1973, Mr. Suzuki teamed up with Southland to bring 7-Eleven to Japan. The next year, the first one opened in Tokyo’s eastern Toyosu neighborhood. Stocked with popular American items like hamburgers, it was an immediate hit. Within two years, the chain had expanded to 100 stores.

1973年，铃木与Southland合作，把7-Eleven引入日本。第二年，第一家门店在东京东部的丰洲地区开业。店里销售汉堡等美国流行食品，一开张就大受欢迎。短短两年内，门店数量便扩张到了100家。

日本首家7-Eleven门店，摄于1988年。在铃木敏文的领导下，便利店开始重塑日本人的日常生活。

Mr. Suzuki pressed ahead, continually adapting and refining 7-Eleven’s operations. In 1975, 7-Eleven started 24-hour operations at a store in Fukushima Prefecture, a model that would become standard across Japan’s convenience store industry. He also rolled out the Japanese retail sector’s first large-scale point-of-sale system for item-by-item inventory management.

铃木乘势而上，不断对7-Eleven的经营模式加以调整和优化。1975年，7-Eleven在福岛县一家门店率先推行24小时营业，这一模式后来成为日本便利店行业的通行标准。他还在日本零售业率先推出了大规模POS销售时点信息管理系统，用于单品库存管理。

Over the next three decades, Mr. Suzuki oversaw the opening of thousands of additional stores across Japan. 7-Eleven’s Japanese operator steadily increased its stake in Southland until the chain became wholly Japanese-owned in 2005.

在接下来的30年里，铃木在日本各地又开了数千家门店。7-Eleven的日本运营商稳步增持Southland的股份，到2005年，这个原本的美国连锁品牌彻底成为日本企业所有。

Under Mr. Suzuki’s leadership, convenience stores began reshaping everyday life in Japan. They began selling staples like rice balls and bento boxes — foods traditionally prepared at home that became some of the stores’ most popular items. 7-Eleven also expanded into services ranging from package shipping to bill payment and brought in machines that brewed fresh coffee at the counter.

在铃木的领导下，便利店开始重塑日本的日常生活。他们开始售卖饭团、便当等原本通常在家里制作的食物，而这些后来都成了最受欢迎的商品。7-Eleven还扩展到从包裹寄送到账单支付的各种服务，并在柜台引入了现磨咖啡机。

By 2015, the 7-Eleven empire had grown to more than 55,000 stores globally, making it the largest convenience store chain in the world. Within the industry, Mr. Suzuki became known as the “god of retail.”

到2015年，7-Eleven全球门店数量已经超过5.5万家，成为跃居全球规模最大的便利店连锁。在业内，铃木赢得了“零售之神”的美誉。

The next year, he resigned after a failed attempt to oust Ryuichi Isaka, then the president of 7-Eleven Japan, on the grounds that Mr. Isaka had failed to meet performance expectations. After the board rejected the ouster proposal, Mr. Suzuki said the vote showed he no longer had the confidence of the company’s leadership. He remained at the company as an honorary adviser.

第二年，他试图罢免7-Eleven Japan社长井阪隆一，理由是他未能达到业绩预期。在董事会否决了这一提议后，铃木表示，这一投票结果说明他已失去公司高层的信任，遂宣告辞职，此后以名誉顾问身份留任。

Mr. Suzuki is survived by his wife and two children, according to local media. One of Mr. Suzuki’s sons, Yasuhiro Suzuki, served as an executive at Seven & i until 2016.

据日本媒体报道，铃木的遗属包括妻子与两个儿子。其中一个儿子铃木康弘曾在柒和伊控股任高管，于2016年离职。

For much of the past decade, Seven & i has been in the midst of a major overhaul. The 7-Eleven operator expanded beyond convenience stores and supermarkets, into retail outlets selling everything from stationery to baby goods. But many of those peripheral businesses have struggled.

在过去十年的大部分时间里，柒和伊控股一直在进行重大改革。它试图将触角从便利店和超市延伸至文具、婴儿用品等各类零售领域。但诸多外围业务均表现不佳。

In 2024, the Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard approached Seven & i with a $47 billion takeover offer. Seven & i rejected the bid, but internally, the offer intensified a growing sense of crisis. The company’s stock price and growth prospects had stalled, and critics argued that 7-Eleven’s last major product innovation was the freshly brewed counter coffee introduced under Mr. Suzuki in 2013.

2024年，加拿大零售商Alimentation Couche-Tard提出以470亿美元收购柒和伊控股。虽然公司拒绝了这一提议，但收购要约也加剧了内部日益严重的危机感。公司的股价和增长前景双双陷入停滞，批评人士指出，7-Eleven上一次重大产品创新还要追溯到2013年铃木任内推出的现磨咖啡。

Last year, the company gained momentum with the appointment of a new chief executive, Stephen Dacus, who quickly laid out plans to spend billions of dollars on overseas expansion. Mr. Dacus has said he hopes to revive Mr. Suzuki’s trailblazing spirit. The demanding nature of Japanese consumers, Mr. Dacus said in an interview last year, “forces you to innovate.”

在去年任命了新任首席执行官斯蒂芬·戴卡斯后，公司迎来转机。戴卡斯迅速制定了斥资数十亿美元进行海外扩张的计划。戴卡斯曾表示，他希望能重振铃木的开创精神。在去年的一次采访中，他表示，日本消费者要求很高，“迫使你去创新”。

On a warm spring day in 2012, Xi Jinping, then China’s vice president, met with Bill Gates in Beijing. As the men were walking out of the meeting room, the conversation turned to smoking in a country that consumes nearly half the world’s cigarettes.

2012年一个温暖的春日，时任中国国家副主席习近平在北京会见了比尔·盖茨。当两人走出会议室时，话题转向了在这个消耗全球近半香烟国家里的吸烟问题。

Mr. Xi, a former smoker, said he felt much better after quitting years earlier and described tobacco use as a serious problem for China, recalled Dr. Ray Yip, then head of the Gates Foundation in China. Mr. Xi, who would become president the next year, promised to “do something about tobacco,” Dr. Yip said.

据时任盖茨基金会中国区负责人的叶雷博士回忆，曾是烟民的习近平说，他在几年前戒烟后感觉好多了，并称烟草使用是中国面临的一个严重问题。叶雷表示，将于次年出任国家主席的习近平曾承诺要“对烟草问题采取行动”。

Days later, Mr. Gates appeared at an antismoking event with Peng Liyuan, the Chinese leader’s wife and a celebrity singer. Both wore red shirts emblazoned with an antismoking slogan.

几天后，盖茨与这位中国领导人的妻子、著名歌唱家彭丽媛共同出席了一场控烟活动。两人都穿着印有控烟标语的红色T恤。

Yet in the 14 years since, as Mr. Xi has become China’s most dominant leader in decades, Beijing has made only slow progress curbing tobacco use or enacting a national indoor smoking ban. While cigarette sales have fallen across much of the world, China has moved in the opposite direction.

然而，在之后的14年里，尽管习近平已成为中国几十年来最具统治力的领导人，北京在遏制吸烟或制定全国性室内禁烟令方面进展缓慢。在全球大部分地区卷烟销量下降的同时，中国却走向了相反的方向。

Cigarette consumption in China rose 39 percent from 2003 to 2023, even as it fell 26 percent in the rest of the world. The 2.4 trillion cigarettes sold in China each year account for nearly half the global total, according to a report by a nongovernmental organization founded by former officials from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

2003年至2023年间，中国的卷烟消费量增长39%，同期世界其他地区的消费量则下降了26%。由中国疾病预防控制中心前官员创立的一家非政府组织的报告显示，中国每年售出2.4万亿支香烟，占全球总量近一半。

The percentage of smokers has declined over the last 13 years, as fewer young people smoke, but cigarette sales have steadily grown. Cigarettes prices are low: A pack costs about $3 on average, roughly one-third the price in the United States.

过去13年来，随着吸烟的年轻人减少，吸烟率有所下降，但卷烟销量却在稳步增长。香烟价格低廉：平均每包售价约 20元，大约是美国价格的三分之一。

盖茨基金会前中国区负责人叶雷表示，习近平曾誓言“对烟草问题采取行动”。

The failure to slow cigarette sales is a measure of the clout wielded by China’s State Tobacco Monopoly Administration, which both regulates the industry and operates the country’s dominant cigarette maker, the China National Tobacco Corporation.

卷烟销量未能放缓反映了中国国家烟草专卖局所掌握的巨大影响力，该机构既是行业的监管者，也运营着中国占据主导地位的卷烟制造商中国烟草总公司。

The company generated roughly $244 billion in profit and tax revenue in 2025, about 7 percent of national government revenue and nearly what China says it spends on defense.

该公司在2025年创造了约16570亿元的利税总额，约占国家政府财政收入的7%，几乎与中国官方公布的国防支出相当。

With economic growth slowing and a prolonged property slump eroding local governments’ land-sale income, tobacco revenue has become even more essential. The agency has also channeled its profits to support several of Mr. Xi’s strategic priorities.

随着经济增长放缓以及长期的房地产低迷侵蚀了地方政府土地出让收入，烟草收入变得更加不可或缺。该机构还将其利润用于支持习近平的多项战略优先事项。

Last year, it injected more than $1 billion into one of China’s biggest banks to shore up the financial system. It has also been a major backer of a $100 billion national semiconductor investment fund.

去年，它向中国最大的银行之一注资超过75亿元，以支撑金融系统。它也是一项规模达7000亿元的国家半导体投资基金的主要支持者。

The financial weight has translated into political influence. The agency’s chief administrator holds a rank equivalent to a deputy government minister. Seven former top administrators have been arrested on corruption charges in the past seven years.

这种财务实力已转化为政治影响力。该机构的最高管理者拥有相当于政府副部长的行政级别。在过去七年中，已有七名前高管因腐败指控被捕。

In 2022, the agency expanded its authority to cover vapes, imposing far stricter rules, including limits on where they can be sold and bans on flavored products. Unlike in other countries, vaping has not eroded cigarette demand in China. Beijing ratified the World Health Organization tobacco-control treaty in 2005 but has never implemented its strictest provisions.

2022年，该机构将管辖权扩大到了电子烟领域，实施了严格得多的规定，包括限制销售地点和禁止销售调味产品。与其他国家不同的是，电子烟并没有削弱中国对传统卷烟的需求。北京于2005年批准了世界卫生组织的控烟条约，但从未实施其最严格的条款。

烟草管理部门阻止了推行全国性室内禁烟令的努力，将责任推给了地方政府，而地方政府的执法力度往往较弱。

The administration’s clearest victory came around 2017 when it blocked a yearslong push for a national indoor smoking ban, shifting responsibility to local governments, where enforcement is often weak.

该局最明显的一次胜利发生在大约2017年，当时它阻挠了一项推动数年的全国室内禁烟令，将责任推给了地方政府，而地方的执法往往较弱。

Today, many local smoking regulations are largely toothless and offer scant protection from secondhand smoke, particularly in less developed parts of the country. While cigarette packs in the United States and other Western countries carry impossible-to-ignore health warnings, packaging in China bears a single-line caution alongside images of national symbols like pandas and the Gate of Heavenly Peace.

如今，许多地方的控烟法规在很大程度上形同虚设，对二手烟的防护作用微乎其微，尤其是在该国的欠发达地区。美国和其他西方国家的烟盒上印有不容忽视的健康警告，而在中国，烟盒包装上只有一行简单的警示语，旁边还印着熊猫和天安门等国家象征的图案。

A 2022 study published by the Chinese C.D.C. concluded that the country’s inability to rein in smoking was the result of interference by the state monopoly and the government’s “ambiguous attitudes” toward tobacco.

中国疾病预防控制中心于2022年发表的一项研究得出结论，中国无法遏制吸烟趋势是因为国家专卖局的干预以及政府对烟草的“暧昧态度“。

The influence of local branches of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration deepened after the Covid-19 pandemic, when many governments were left financially strained by the cost of mass testing. Their lobbying is especially effective because cigarette production and consumption taxes are instrumental to local budgets.

在新冠疫情之后，随着大规模核酸检测带来的成本使许多地方政府财政吃紧，国家烟草专卖局各地分支机构的影响力进一步加深。由于卷烟的生产和消费税对地方财政起着举足轻重的作用，这些分支机构的游说尤为有效。

A study by Zheng Rong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, found that roughly half the revenue from each cigarette sold by Chinese manufacturers flowed into government coffers.

北京对外经济贸易大学教授郑榕的一项研究发现，中国制造商每售出一支香烟，其中大约一半的收入将流入政府财政。

The dependence is acute in China’s largest tobacco-producing regions. In Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province in southwestern China, tobacco taxes accounted for more than half the city budget in 2024. In Changde, a city in Hunan Province in central China, tobacco taxes accounted for 20 percent of its tax revenue in 2022.

这种依赖在中国最大的烟草产区尤为严重。在中国西南部云南省的省会昆明，2024年的烟草税收占该市预算的一半以上。在中国中部湖南省的常德市，2022年的烟草税收占其税收总额的20%。

Local tobacco bureaus fight to water down even modest antismoking initiatives.

地方烟草局甚至会极力阻挠哪怕最温和的控烟倡议。

In Xinyu, a city in Jiangxi Province, the local health commission proposed designating certain public areas as “smoke-free,” according to official documents posted online.

根据网上公布的官方文件，在江西省新余市，当地卫健委曾提议将某些公共区域划为“无烟区”。

The proposal already excluded restaurants and bars, falling short of World Health Organization recommendations that all indoor public spaces be nonsmoking. But the local tobacco bureau suggested narrowing the definition of smoke-free schools to apply only to elementary and middle schools. After a public uproar, the bureau’s efforts were unsuccessful.

该提议已经排除了餐馆和酒吧，未达到世界卫生组织关于所有室内公共场所均应禁烟的建议。但当地烟草局仍建议缩小无烟学校的定义范围，仅使其适用于中小学。在引发公众哗然而遭到反对后，该局的这一企图未能成功。

As government efforts have stalled, young people, especially women, have started organizing their own campaigns.

随着政府层面的努力停滞不前，年轻人——尤其是女性——开始组织自己的倡议活动。

Alva Zhang, a 23-year-old influencer, created a social media account and WeChat groups encouraging followers to confront smokers in public venues and file complaints with authorities.

23岁的网红阿尔瓦·张（音）创建了一个社交媒体账号和多个微信群，鼓励粉丝在公共场所劝阻吸烟者，并向当局投诉。

“Because there are only some regulations with barely any penalty, I and many others have experienced anger and helplessness,” Ms. Zhang said.

“因为只有一些规定，几乎没有处罚措施，我和许多其他人都有过愤怒和无助的感觉，“阿尔瓦·张说。

Public support appeared to be growing. A female comedian gained national attention and praise from health agencies after performing a routine that mocked inconsiderate smokers. Hundreds have shared their proposals for stricter smoking rules in China’s government surveys.

公众的支持似乎在不断增长。一位女性喜剧演员在表演了一段嘲讽不顾及他人的吸烟者的段子后，获得了全国关注以及卫生机构的赞扬。在中国的政府调查中，已有数百人提出了对制定更严格控烟规则的建议。

Early in his tenure, Mr. Xi appeared willing to challenge the tobacco industry.

在其任期初期，习近平似乎有意挑战烟草业。

After he came to power in 2013, the central government issued a directive forbidding officials to smoke during government activities or in public venues. It called on officials to show “exemplary compliance” with the rules.

在他于2013年上台后，中央政府发布了一项指令，禁止官员在政府活动或公共场所吸烟。该指令呼吁官员在遵守规定，“以身作则“。

中国的烟草包装上印有简短的警示语以及天安门等国家象征的图片。相比之下，香港烟盒上的图文健康警示占据标签大部分面积。

Dr. Yip, the former Gates Foundation official, said the directive most likely had come directly from Mr. Xi and helped accelerate Beijing’s adoption of indoor smoking restrictions, making the capital one of the first major Chinese cities to enact such rules.

前盖茨基金会官员叶雷表示，这项指令极有可能直接来自习近平本人，并推动加速了北京市通过室内禁烟限制措施，使首都成为第一批批颁布此类规定的中国大城市之一。

Two years later, in 2015, China raised tobacco taxes, pushing cigarette prices up more than 10 percent.

两年后的2015年，中国提高了烟草税，促使香烟价格上涨了10%以上。

But the push for a national indoor smoking ban lost steam around the same time. It was also the last time Ms. Peng, China’s first lady, publicly championed antismoking efforts, appearing again with Mr. Gates in Seattle to assess research on helping people quit.

但大约在同一时期，推动全国范围内实施室内禁烟的势头却有所减弱。那也是中国第一夫人彭丽媛最后一次公开倡导控烟行动，当时她与盖茨再次在西雅图露面，评估关于帮助人们戒烟的研究。

Dr. Yip and other experts point to one reason China’s antismoking momentum shifted. Beginning in 2015, China intensified its crackdown on foreign nongovernmental organizations, a major source of funding for antismoking campaigns.

叶雷和其他专家指出了中国控烟势头发生转变的一个原因：从2015年开始，中国加大了对外国非政府组织的打击力度，而这些组织正是控烟活动的主要资金来源。

Matthew Kohrman, a Stanford University professor who studies smoking in China, said the country’s economic slowdown had most likely driven more people toward nicotine as a “potent mood modulator,” while weak enforcement of smoking restrictions had made cigarettes easier to consume in public.

斯坦福大学研究中国吸烟问题的教授马修·科尔曼表示，中国经济放缓极有可能促使更多人将尼古丁作为“强效的情绪调节剂”，同时对吸烟限制措施的执法不力使得人们在公共场合抽烟较为容易。

Since the pandemic, the National Health Commission has prioritized disease control over curbing tobacco use. China still officially aims to bring the smoking rate down to 20 percent by 2030 from the current 23 percent.

自疫情以来，国家卫生健康委员会已将疾病控制的优先级置于控烟之上。中国官方目前的目标仍然是在2030年将吸烟率从目前的23%降至20%。

Wu Xiangtian, an official from the National Health Commission, acknowledged in 2024 how difficult that target would be.

国家卫健委的一名官员吴翔天在2024年承认实现该目标非常困难。

“To be honest,” he said, “the pressure is immense.”

“说实话，“他说，“压力很大。”

The trench warfare and heavy artillery on Ukraine’s battlefields in 2022 don’t look much like the war by air and sea that began when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

表面上看来，2022年乌克兰战场上的堑壕战和重炮轰击与美国和以色列袭击伊朗后开启的海空战争迥然不同。

But similarities between the two conflicts soon became evident and remain so almost three months later.

但两场冲突之间的相似性很快就显现出来，并且在近三个月后的今天依然如此。

In both, the country with the more powerful military has been unable to vanquish its adversary. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia expected a quick victory when he launched his “special military operation,” more than four years ago. President Trump initially vowed that the “little excursion” against Iran, which started on Feb. 28, would last four to five weeks.

在这两场战争中，军事实力更强的一方都未能战胜对手。在四年多前发动“特别军事行动”时，俄罗斯总统普京本以为会迅速获胜。特朗普总统最初也信誓旦旦，称始于2月28日的对伊“小小远征”只需四到五周便可收场。

“For both Russia and for the United States, there’s a lot of unmet expectations about their military operations,” said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iran and Russia and a professor at Sciences Po, the elite social sciences university in Paris, attributing it to “the hubris on both sides.”

“无论对俄罗斯还是对美国而言，他们的军事行动都远未达到预期，”伊朗与俄罗斯问题专家、巴黎社科领域的顶尖大学——巴黎政治学院的妮可·格拉耶夫斯基说道，她将其归因于“双方的傲慢”。

Over the last several days, negotiations have produced progress toward an initial plan for peace between Iran and the United States, though with much uncertainty, given the renewed American strikes against Iran on Monday. Whether or not an agreement is reached, the war will have provided lessons, along with the conflict in Ukraine, on the evolution of modern warfare.

在过去几天里，伊朗和美国之间的初步和平计划谈判取得了进展，但鉴于美国周一再次对伊朗发动打击，前景仍充满变数。无论协议能否最终达成，这场战争都将与乌克兰冲突一起为现代战争的演变留下诸多启示。

Technology reshaping warfare

技术重塑战争

Asymmetrical tactics have helped both Ukraine and Iran hold off stronger forces with which they could not compete in a conventional miliary confrontation.

非对称战术帮助乌克兰和伊朗抵挡住了在常规军事对抗中根本无法匹敌的对手。

Iran, for instance, struck at the United States by attacking its allies. It instilled fear in Persian Gulf states by sending one-way attack drones to hit military bases and energy facilities in countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It has also used the threat of mines and small armed speedboats to keep a chokehold on the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

以伊朗为例，它通过打击美国的盟友来反制美国——向科威特、沙特阿拉伯等国的军事基地和能源设施派出单程攻击无人机，在波斯湾国家中制造恐惧。与此同时，它还利用水雷与小型武装快艇的威胁，牢牢扼住了狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡。

Ukraine has assassinated Russian military officials in Moscow and regularly struck oil facilities, the lifeblood of the Russian economy. It has also used sea drones to neutralize Russia’s much bigger Black Sea navy.

乌克兰则在莫斯科暗杀了俄罗斯军官，并持续打击石油设施——那是俄罗斯的经济命脉。它还利用海上无人艇牵制了规模远大于自己的俄罗斯黑海舰队。

5月，在阿曼海港城市哈萨布附近的霍尔木兹海峡停泊的船只。

Perhaps most indelibly, experts said, the two conflicts demonstrate how innovation and technology are reshaping warfare.

专家们认为，也许最深刻的一点是：这两场战争都展示了创新与技术对战争的重塑。

The United States has turned to drone-detecting systems loaded with artificial intelligence to protect the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, according to a person familiar with the agreement. Those systems were developed by Ukraine to defend itself from Russia.

据一位知情人士透露，美国已在沙特阿拉伯的苏丹王子空军基地部署了搭载人工智能的无人机探测系统——这套系统正是乌克兰为抵御俄罗斯而研发的。

In Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah is attacking Israeli troops with explosive drones controlled by fiber-optic cables, like those commonly used in the war in Ukraine.

在黎巴嫩，激进组织真主党正在使用光纤电缆控制的爆炸无人机攻击以色列军队——乌克兰战争中也常用类似手段。

Layered systems of sensors, guided missiles and drones — and, in many cases, A.I.-enabled technology — that were honed in Ukraine and deployed in the Gulf, “are likely to rapidly proliferate around the world,” said Michael Kofman, a military expert and senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

军事专家、卡内基国际和平基金会俄罗斯与欧亚项目高级研究员迈克尔·科夫曼表示，由传感器、制导导弹和无人机构成的多层次系统——很多还搭载了人工智能技术——在乌克兰战场打磨成熟，后又部署到波斯湾地区，“很可能会迅速扩散到全世界”。

In both wars, “we see the advent of mass precision on the battlefield,” Mr. Kofman said. Already, he said, Hezbollah and combatants in Mali have turned to similarly cheap and easily built technology, showing that such systems “will democratize access to mass precision on the battlefield for middle and small powers.”

科夫曼说，在这两场战争中，“我们看到的是大规模精准打击时代的到来”。他说，真主党和马里的武装分子已开始采用类似的廉价、容易制造的技术，这表明此类系统“将使中小国家也能获得战场上的大规模精确打击能力，从而实现某种意义上的平权”。

Similar attack strategies

相似的攻击策略

The fighting in the Middle East before the cease-fire took effect in early April featured the kind of drone swarms combined with ballistic missile attacks that officials and experts said debuted in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

今年4月初停火生效之前，中东战场上的交火呈现出无人机蜂群与弹道导弹协同打击的态势。据官员和专家介绍，这种打法正是在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争中首次亮相的。

Iran delivered one-way Shahed attack drones to Russia in 2022, which Moscow used to strike Ukraine. That same model has been launched against Gulf countries by Iran this year as Russia is returning the favor with some military support to Iran. The extent of that support remains unclear, but according to U.S. officials, it includes shipping drone parts across the Caspian Sea.

2022年，伊朗向俄罗斯提供了沙赫德单程攻击无人机，俄方将其用于打击乌克兰。今年，伊朗又将同型号的无人机对准了海湾国家，俄罗斯则投桃报李，向伊朗提供了一定程度的军事支持。这种支持的具体范围目前尚不明朗，但据美国官员称，其中包括经由里海向伊朗运输无人机零部件。

3月，巴林麦纳麦一栋建筑遭无人机袭击后。

Ms. Grajewski noted “some cooperation” between Russia and Iran in manipulating global location systems to confuse the opposition’s targeting guidance. Some ships linked to Iran appear to have recently spoofed locator trackers in the Strait of Hormuz — mirroring a long-honed tactic of Russia’s illicit shadow fleet of energy tankers — to evade detection by the U.S. Navy.

格拉耶夫斯基指出，俄罗斯与伊朗在干扰全球定位系统、迷惑对方制导系统方面存在“一定程度的合作”。最近，一些与伊朗有关联的船只似乎在霍尔木兹海峡伪造了定位追踪器以躲避美国海军的侦测，这与俄罗斯长期用于规避制裁的秘密影子油轮船队所惯用的手段如出一辙。

Russian anti-jamming equipment was found in an Iranian drone targeting a British base in Cyprus in March. European officials and experts are concerned Moscow will supply weapons if stalled peace talks break down and Iran resumes strikes across the region.

今年3月，俄制反干扰设备在一架攻击驻塞浦路斯英军基地的伊朗无人机中被发现。欧洲官员与专家担心，如果停滞不前的和平谈判最终破裂，伊朗恢复对地区内的打击行动，莫斯科可能会进一步向伊朗提供武器。

“We’ve seen evidence of Russia helping Iran with its attacks,” the British defense minister, John Healey, said in April at a meeting of allies who are sending military support to Ukraine.

“我们已经看到俄罗斯帮助伊朗发动袭击的证据，”英国国防大臣约翰·希利4月在向乌克兰提供军事支持的盟友会议上说。

He did not describe that evidence but added, “Putin wanted us distracted by the conflict in the Middle East.”

他没有详细说明这些证据，但补充道：“普京希望我们被中东冲突牵制住。”

Diplomatic ties

外交关系

The Iran war has strained some alliances, most notably between the Trump administration and Europe, where many leaders believe the conflict is unnecessary and unlawful.

伊朗战争让一些联盟关系变得紧张，最突出的就是特朗普政府与欧洲之间。许多欧洲领导人认为，这场战争既没有必要，也不合法。

It has also set off a worldwide scramble for energy supplies, with some countries turning to Russia for illicit but available oil and gas. And it has delayed the Russia-Ukraine peace process by diverting the United States’ attention to the Middle East.

战争还引发全球能源争夺，一些国家开始转向俄罗斯，购买那些虽属违规却供应充裕的油气资源。与此同时，由于美国把注意力转向中东，俄乌和平进程也因此一再拖延。

“I believe they were drinking Champagne in the Kremlin when President Trump started the war in Iran,” said Danylo Lubkivsky, director of the Kyiv Security Forum and a former Ukrainian deputy foreign minister.

“我相信，当特朗普总统发动伊朗战争时，克里姆林宫里的人一定在开香槟庆祝，”基辅安全论坛负责人、乌克兰前副外长丹尼洛·卢布基夫斯基说

But the war in Iran has also produced some surprising alliances, most evident in the new partnerships Ukraine has forged with Gulf states.

但伊朗战争也催生了一些出人意料的新同盟关系，其中最为显著的，是乌克兰与海湾国家之间新建立的伙伴关系。

In April, Ukraine announced new security agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those kinds of ties would have been unlikely several years ago when some of those Gulf states had previously sought to maintain neutral relations with Russia.

4月，乌克兰宣布与卡塔尔、沙特和阿联酋达成新的安全协议。几年前，这样的合作几乎不可想象，上述部分海湾国家还刻意对俄罗斯保持中立。

Kyiv wants to trade its drone technology and training assistance in return for Middle East diplomatic backing, energy deals and advanced air-defense systems, said Jana Kobzova, co-director of the European Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

欧洲对外关系委员会欧洲安全项目联合主任雅娜·科布佐娃表示，基辅希望用无人机技术和培训援助来换取中东的外交支持、能源协议和先进的防空系统。

一名乌克兰军事教官手持一架“子弹”拦截无人机。这种无人机能够对抗俄罗斯“见证者”攻击无人机，它已成为海湾国家争相求购的热门装备。

President Volodymyr Zelensky is hoping “to turn this crisis into an opportunity,” she said.

乌克兰总统泽连斯基希望“将这场危机转化为机遇”，她说。

At the least, Ms. Kobzova said, agreements with oil-rich states that include the sale of drone technology to them could prove lucrative to Ukraine’s burgeoning defense industry.

科布佐娃说，至少，与石油资源丰富的国家达成的协议，包括向它们出售无人机技术，可能会为乌克兰蓬勃发展的国防工业带来丰厚回报。

Europe has been a lifeline for Ukraine since the United States mostly stopped donating weapons and equipment to Kyiv last year.

自去年美国基本停止向基辅捐赠武器和设备以来，欧洲一直是乌克兰的生命线。

Its countries have bought weapons from the United States to send to Ukraine, and last month the European Union unlocked a loan of 90 billion euros, about $106 billion, to help Kyiv endure the ongoing war.

欧洲各国从美国购买武器转交乌克兰，欧盟上个月批准了一笔900亿欧元（约合1060亿美元）的贷款，助力基辅坚守这场旷日持久的战争。

But Europe’s ability to continue to provide robust support may depend on whether the shortage of fuel and goods caused by the Iran war drags down European economies, a situation that would worsen if peace is not achieved.

然而，欧洲能否持续提供有力支持或许取决于伊朗战争所引发的燃料和物资短缺是否会拖垮欧洲经济——若和平遥遥无期，这种局面只会恶化。

Riccardo Alcaro, an expert at the Institute of International Affairs in Rome, said the continuing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for 20 percent of the global energy supply, illustrated how Iran can pose as significant a threat to Europe as does the one on its doorstep, in Ukraine.

罗马国际事务研究所专家里卡多·阿尔卡罗表示，围绕霍尔木兹海峡的持续对峙表明，伊朗对欧洲构成的威胁并不亚于乌克兰战场这个近在咫尺的危机。这条航道承载着全球20%的能源供应。

“The Ukraine war is still Europe’s main front,” said Mr. Alcaro, whose research focuses on Europe and Iran. “But the Iran war is not a secondary front, in the sense that it is really, really, really impacting Europe’s ability to contribute to its first priority — which is Ukraine.”

“乌克兰战争仍是欧洲的主战场，”欧洲与伊朗问题专家阿尔卡罗说。“但伊朗战争也绝非次要战场，因为它真的、真的、真的影响到了欧洲为其首要事项——也就是乌克兰——提供帮助的能力。”

This is a list of rules for the elderly, the aim of which is to keep us elderly elderly, and not to see us go one step further. Staying alive in one’s later years is an art generally requiring the avoidance of wrong moves. The key word to a lot of one’s behavior is “don’t.” If more old people simply did not do certain things, especially on impulse, the world would be a safer place. Duller but safer.

这是一份给老年人的守则，其目的在于让我们这些老年人继续当老年人，而不是看着我们再往前多迈一步。人到暮年，活下去是一门艺术，通常要求避免走出错棋。你诸多行为的关键词只有一个：“别。”如果更多老年人能克制住自己，特别是克制住冲动，别去做某些事，这个世界会安全得多。乏味，但安全。

I should add that if you fail to follow these rules, I’m not saying that you are doing anything morally wrong. Only that you will suffer.

我还要补充一句：如果你没能遵守这些规矩，我并不是说你道德上有什么问题。我只想说，你会吃苦头。

1. Run when you hear “We must do this again.”

1. 听到“我们一定得再聚一次”时，赶紧跑。

This is often said at the end of some pointless social event in which you participated reluctantly. Inevitably someone will say cheerily, “We must do this again.” Nonsense. They don’t mean it. You don’t mean it. Nobody means it.

这话通常出现在某场你原本就不情不愿参加的、毫无意义的社交活动尾声。总会有人兴高采烈地说：“咱们一定得再聚！”胡扯。他们不是真心的。你也不是。没人是真心的。

2. Marry above your station.

2. 找个门第高些的对象结婚。

Usually you can’t help it. But you’ve probably found that out already.

这通常也由不得自己。不过你可能早就发现这一点了。

3. Don’t forget to bestow confidence.

3. 别忘了给予信任。

It’s the best thing you can give someone you love. Saying “You can do it” to a loved one in a situation in which that person has self-doubt — taking an exam, making a speech, writing a poem — means more than any sweet profession of affection. It means that you love that person so wholeheartedly that you wish him or her the inner satisfaction of self-realization. The pride of achieving themselves. What more can you say that so expresses your love?

这是你能送给挚爱之人最好的礼物。当所爱之人陷入自我怀疑时——比如面临考试、发表演讲或是写诗，对他说一句“你能行”胜过千言万语的甜言蜜语。这意味着你全心全意地爱着他，希望他能获得自我实现的由衷满足。那种通过自身成就获得的骄傲。还有什么比这更能表达你的爱意呢？

4. Observe the moth.

4. 观察飞蛾。

In her essay “The Death of the Moth,” Virginia Woolf notices a moth in its death throes, batting about a small windowpane. The author watches the animal’s plight with pity and admiration — awe, really. Its struggles are beautiful. She imagines the moth saying death was too strong, even for it.

弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫在她的散文《飞蛾之死》中描写了一只濒临死亡的飞蛾，在小窗玻璃上扑腾。作者怀着怜悯与钦佩——确切地说是敬畏——注视着这个小动物的困境。它的挣扎是美丽的。她想象飞蛾在说：死亡太强大了，连它也抵挡不住。

Observe the moth in its monumental fight for life, and do likewise. We gain life’s powers by knowing that eventually they will be taken away. There is beauty in this struggle. Murmurations of starlings occur only in the evening.

观察飞蛾为生命进行的殊死搏斗，然后照做。我们正是通过知晓力量终将被剥夺，才获得了生命的力量。这挣扎中有美。椋鸟群飞只会在黄昏时分出现。

5. Don’t share despair.

5. 别吐露自己的绝望。

Not even with your friends. Not that they won’t sympathize. It’s just too much to ask of someone dear to you to bear your burdens.

哪怕是面对朋友也不行。倒不是说他们不会同情你。只是，要求你珍视的人背负你的重担，实在太过分了。

6. Don’t compromise, especially a little.

6. 绝不妥协，尤其是微小的妥协。

Unless you’re a professional negotiator, don’t compromise. Give in a little, you might as well give up the ship. During the McCarthy era, students were required to submit loyalty oaths to maintain their scholarships. At a meeting of the Harvard faculty, a professor who had escaped Mussolini’s Italy challenged the dean on this matter. The dean responded that signing and sending in the oaths was merely pro forma and had no more meaning than licking the stamps on the letters. The Italian professor stood and said something like, “Mr. Dean, I’m from fascist Italy, and in fascist Italy you learn one thing. First you lick the stamps. Then you lick something else.”

除非你是职业谈判专家，否则别妥协。退让一小步，你就干脆把整艘船都交出去算了。麦卡锡主义时期，学生必须提交忠诚宣誓书才能保住奖学金。在哈佛的一次教员会议上，一位逃离墨索里尼统治的意大利教授就此事质问院长。院长回应说，签字上交不过是走个形式，其意义还不如舔邮票上的胶水。那位意大利教授站起来说道：“院长先生，我来自法西斯治下的意大利，在那儿你只会学会一件事。先是舔邮票，然后你就得开始舔别的了。”

7. Screw it up royally.

7. 把事情搞砸，而且要搞得轰轰烈烈。

You’ve spent a long life telling yourself that mistakes are to be avoided, but that isn’t necessarily so. Playing jazz piano, whenever you make a mistake, which is inevitable, you make another mistake deliberately to make something right out of something wrong. Then you do it again. Theoretically, you could play an entire tune of mistakes, and it would sound just fine.

你花了一辈子告诫自己要避免犯错，但这未必是对的。弹爵士钢琴时，当你弹错了一个音符（这是难免的），你要故意再弹错一个，把错的变成对的。然后你再来一次。理论上，你可以整首曲子全是错的，听起来却依然美妙。

You may think it would be better not to make the mistake in the first place. But a creative mistake may be truer to life, as you’ve no doubt discovered. You took a job you didn’t want, soon to discover it’s the ideal job for you. You were born to do that job. When you think of it, life is an assembly of creative mistakes. Even when you don’t think of it.

你或许觉得一开始不错才是最好的。但你无疑已经发现，创造性的错误往往更接近生活的真相。你接了一份你不想要的工作，很快却发现这正是为你量身定做的理想工作。你生来就该干这一行。仔细想想，生活就是一连串创造性的错误堆砌而成的。即便你不去想，它也是如此。

8. Don’t question everything you don’t understand.

8. 别去质疑每一个你不明白的事物。

The older you get, the more wonderful the world appears. Wonderful meaning full of wonders. The sudden appearance of something beautiful in the midst of heartbreak, for instance.

年纪越大，世界就显得越奇妙。比如，在心碎欲绝之时，突然出现了美好的事物。

You are at a low point, and you think you’re going to stay there, there’s no relief, when out of the blue, something by Mahler or Beethoven comes into your air, and all at once the sorrow dissipates. You don’t question or analyze the moment. You’re simply grateful for it.

你跌入了谷底，以为自己会永远待在那里，以为解脱无望，这时，马勒或贝多芬的某个乐章忽然飘进了你的空气里，悲伤瞬间消散。你不去质疑，也不去分析那一刻。你只是心怀感激。

Where heartbreak is, beauty intrudes. Wondrously.

哪里有心碎，哪里就有美的闯入。神奇得很。

9. Grab the chicken leg.

9. 抢过那只鸡腿。

So there we were, in our 20s, Ginny and I and a bunch of friends, having a picnic by the Charles River in Cambridge, when I picked up a chicken leg with the intention of eating it and held it aloft. A little boy walked by and took it from my hand and kept walking. My friends and I laughed — the boy was so casual. Ginny said, “He must think that life is a chicken leg, waiting to be snatched.” In fact it is, even when you’re no longer a spring chicken.

那是在我们二十多岁的时候，我和金妮还有一群朋友，在坎布里奇的查尔斯河畔野餐。我拿了一只鸡腿，高高举起打算吃。一个小男孩走过，一把抄走我手上的鸡腿继续往前走。我和朋友们大笑——那孩子太淡定了。金妮说：“他肯定觉得生活就是一根鸡腿，等着你去抢。”事实确实如此，哪怕你早已不再是童子鸡。

10. Look only at the rim.

10. 只看篮筐。

When I was playing intramural basketball in college, I was 5-foot-11, a mite in the land of giants, and my all-around game was so-so at best. Yet most of the time I managed to score in the double digits by paying no attention to the defense. I simply pretended it wasn’t there. I looked only at the rim of the basket. And sure enough, most of the time the defense didn’t touch me.

大学时我打校内篮球赛，身高1米8，在巨人们的世界里是个小不点，我的综合球技充其量也就是一般般。然而大多数时候，我都能得分上双，因为我根本不去理会防守队员。我假装他们不存在。我只盯着篮筐的框沿。果然，大多数时候，防守队员根本碰不到我。

Other games in life offer similar opportunities, at any age. Disregard the impediments to your well-being — a noisy neighbor, a treacherous colleague — and concentrate instead on where you are headed. You’ll be pleasantly surprised how easily you get there. Nothing but net.

生活中的其他比赛也提供类似的机会，不分年龄。无视那些阻碍你幸福的绊脚石——比如吵闹的邻居、阴险的同事——把注意力集中在你要去的地方。你会惊喜地发现，抵达终点竟是如此轻松。空心入网。

11. Do not seek immortality.

11. 别追求不朽。

It won’t come to you anyway, certainly not through your works and achievements. But the good feeling you have for others, and they for you, that goes on forever. I’m fond of quoting the poet Philip Larkin: “What will survive of us is love.” That should do it.

反正永生是不可能的，尤其别指望通过作品和成就来实现了。但是你对他人、他人对你的那份美好情愫是会永存的。我喜欢引用诗人菲利普·拉金的话：“我们身后能留下的，唯有爱。”这就够了。

A Chinese critic of his country’s ruling Communist Party had already escaped to Thailand and Vietnam and tried swimming to Taiwan — only to be sent back to mainland China each time. He was jailed, prohibited from working and barred from leaving, despite international calls to let him seek asylum elsewhere.

一名批评中国共产党的中国人此前曾逃至泰国和越南，并尝试游泳前往台湾——结果每次都被送回中国大陆。尽管国际社会呼吁允许他前往其他地方寻求庇护，他仍遭到监禁、禁止工作和限制出境的惩罚。

Now the dissident, Dong Guangping, 68, is in custody in South Korea after escaping China by sea, two of his friends and his lawyer told The New York Times. They said he arrived in a rubber boat late Monday.

他的两名朋友和他的律师告诉《纽约时报》，现年68岁的异见人士董广平在通过海路逃离中国后，目前已被韩国警方拘留。他们表示，他于周一晚些时候乘坐一艘橡皮艇抵达。

Such journeys are extremely rare. In the last known case, a Chinese dissident, Kwon Pyong, traveled to South Korea from China on a jet ski three years ago.

这样的情况极其罕见。在已知的前一个案例中，中国异见人士权平三年前驾驶摩托艇从中国抵达韩国。

Coast Guard officials in Taean, a coastal county in western South Korea, said in a statement on Tuesday that they had detained a Chinese national who was spotted in an unidentified rubber boat by fishermen late Monday. A Coast Guard official said by phone that Mr. Dong’s last name and birth year matched those of the man in custody.

韩国西部沿海泰安郡的海警官员在周二的一份声明中表示，他们拘留了一名中国籍男子，该男子于周一晚些时候被渔民在一艘身份不明的橡皮艇上发现。一名海警官员在电话中表示，董广平的姓氏和出生年份与被拘留男子的信息相符。

The man was found in an 11-foot-long, light gray rubber boat attached to a 9.9-horsepower motor, the official said, adding that the authorities were investigating him on suspicion of violating immigration laws.

该官员表示，这名男子是在一艘长11英尺、配有9.9马力发动机的橡皮艇上被发现的，并补充说，当局正以涉嫌违反移民法的罪名对他展开调查。

Mr. Dong’s arrival in South Korea has not been previously reported.

董广平抵达韩国的消息此前未被报道。

His friends said they hope he will be able to join his family in Canada, a decade after that country granted him and his family permission to resettle. They see the case of the other activist, Mr. Kwon, as a potentially good sign. Mr. Kwon was convicted of unlawful entry and spent months in a South Korean jail but flew to the United States the following year to seek asylum.

他的朋友们表示，他们希望他能够前往加拿大与家人团聚，十年前该国已批准他及其家人在当地定居。他们从另一位活动人士权平的经历看到了一些希望。权平曾被判定犯有非法入境罪并在韩国监狱服刑数月，但次年便乘飞机前往美国寻求庇护。

One of Mr. Dong’s daughters, who lives in Canada, declined to comment through Sheng Xue, one of the two friends who confirmed his journey to South Korea. Global Affairs Canada, the Canadian Embassy in Seoul and China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

董广平的一位居住在加拿大的女儿通过盛雪——证实其韩国之行的两位朋友之一——拒绝了置评请求。加拿大全球事务部、加拿大驻首尔大使馆以及中国外交部没有立即回应置评请求。

Kim Joo-kwang, the lawyer representing Mr. Dong in South Korea, said that he had been detained in Taean. Mr. Kim declined to comment further, citing the ongoing investigation.

在韩国代表董广平的律师金柱光（音）表示，董广平已在泰安被拘捕。他以调查正在进行为由，拒绝做出进一步评论。

Sheng Xue, a Chinese Canadian activist in Toronto, said that Mr. Dong called her three times after he arrived in South Korea. But she did not pick up because the phone showed an unknown number.

居住在多伦多的加拿大华裔活动人士盛雪表示，董广平在抵达韩国后曾给她打了三次电话。但由于电话显示为未知号码，她当时没有接听。

She then received a call from Zhu Yufu, a Chinese dissident and a mutual friend in Los Angeles, who told her that Mr. Dong was trying to call her. Mr. Zhu confirmed in a text message to The Times that Sheng Xue (a pen name for Zang Xihong), was helping Mr. Dong.

随后，她接到了目前身在洛杉矶的中国异见人士、两人的共同朋友朱虞夫的电话，朱虞夫告诉她董广平正试图联系她。在发给《纽约时报》的一条短信中，朱虞夫证实，盛雪（臧锡红的笔名）正在帮助董广平。

But by the time Sheng Xue finally got on the phone, she could not speak directly with him.

但当盛雪终于接通电话时，她未能直接与他通话。

She said she spoke by phone with a Coast Guard officer in South Korea, who told her that Mr. Dong had been detained there after arriving by boat. When the officer asked why he was there, she said that he was a human rights defender who had tried escaping China several times.

她说，她与韩国的一名海警官员进行了电话交谈，对方告诉她，董广平在乘船抵达后已被拘留。当该官员询问董广平为何前往那里时，她说他是一名维权人士，曾多次尝试逃离中国。

Mr. Dong was born in 1958 and raised in the household of a high-ranking official in Zhengzhou, a city in central China, Sheng Xue said. He worked as a police officer and a soldier before becoming a human-rights activist.

盛雪说，董广平生于1958年，在中国中部城市郑州的一个高级官员家庭长大。在成为维权人士之前，他曾担任过警察并当过兵。

He was fired from the police force in 1999 after signing a letter about the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, human rights experts at the United Nations wrote in a letter in 2022. They said he was sentenced to three years in prison for “inciting subversion of state power,” a charge frequently leveled against dissidents and human rights lawyers.

联合国人权专家在2022年的一封信函中写道，1999年，他在一份关于1989年北京天安门广场大屠杀的信上签名后被开除出警察队伍。他们表示，他因“煽动颠覆国家政权罪”被判处三年徒刑，这是一项经常针对异见人士和维权律师的罪名。

In May 2014, the Chinese authorities detained and held him incommunicado for months after he participated in an event commemorating the Tiananmen Square massacre. He was arrested that July on a charge of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble,” a criminal offense in China, and was released in February 2015, the U.N. experts wrote.

联合国专家写道，2014年5月，在他参加了纪念天安门广场大屠杀的活动后，中国当局将其拘留并单独关押了数月。他于当年7月以中国的一项刑事罪名“寻衅滋事罪”被捕，并于2015年2月获释。

Then he fled with his family in September 2015 to Thailand, where he received refugee status from the U.N. Human Rights Commission. But just before they were scheduled to fly to Canada the next month to be resettled there, the Thai police detained Mr. Dong along with another Chinese man, the experts said.

专家们说，随后他于2015年9月携家人逃往泰国，并在那里获得了联合国难民事务高级专员署授予的难民身份。但就在他们预定于次月乘飞机前往加拿大定居之前，泰国警方拘留了董广平以及另一名中国籍男子。

The Chinese state news media said at the time that the Chinese government had worked with the Thai authorities to return him to China that November.

中国官方媒体当时报道称，中国政府已与泰国当局合作，于当年11月将他送回中国。

He was sentenced to more than three years in prison for “inciting subversion of state power” and “illegally crossing national borders” in July 2018. He was released in August 2019, Sheng Xue said, but he kept facing police surveillance and harassment, and he had limited financial resources.

2018年7月，他因“煽动颠覆国家政权罪”和“偷越国（边）境罪”被判处逾三年的有期徒刑。盛雪说，他于2019年8月获释，但一直受到警方的监视和骚扰，且经济来源有限。

That December, he evaded the local police and traveled to China’s southeastern coast and began swimming toward Kinmen, an island controlled by Taiwan, a self-governing democracy. But he floundered at sea.

当年12月，他摆脱了当地警方，前往中国东南沿海，并开始游向金门——由民主自治的台湾控制的岛屿。但他在海上陷入了困境。

“Save me, Sheng Xue!,” he told her in a phone call while trying to stay afloat after about eight hours at sea, she recalled. “I’m swimming to Taiwan,” he said.

盛雪回忆说，在海上漂浮了大约八个小时后，他一边奋力保持不下沉，一边给她打电话说：“盛雪，救我！我正在游向台湾。”

“Oh my god, swimming to Taiwan?” she said she told him. “That’s impossible.”

“天哪，游向台湾？”她说她当时对他说。“这不可能。”

She said she asked the Taiwanese authorities to rescue him, but he was eventually rescued by mainland Chinese fishermen. She said she asked him to take a selfie from the fishing boat as proof of life. He did.

她说她请求了台湾当局对他进行搜救，但他最终被中国大陆的渔民救起。她说她曾要求他从渔船上拍一张自拍照报平安。他照做了。

“The international community is calling on the mainland government to allow me to leave the country and reunite with my family,” he wrote in a text message to Sheng Xue at the time, according to a screenshot she provided to The Times. “It is precisely because I wanted to reunite with my family that I took this risk. They might sentence me again.”

根据她向《纽约时报》提供的一张截图，他当时在给盛雪的一条短信中写道：“国际社会正呼吁大陆政府允许我离境并与家人团聚。正因为我想和家人团聚，我才冒了这个险。他们可能会再次判我的刑。”

The fishermen eventually turned him over to a local police station, where officers escorted him back to his home in the central province of Henan, the U.N. experts said.

联合国专家表示，渔民最终将他移交给了当地派出所，那里的警员将他押送回了他位于中部省份河南的家中。

Mr. Dong again fled China in January 2020 by crossing into Vietnam, where he sent Sheng Xue a selfie from a taxi. He lived in hiding there for over two years, she said. But the Vietnamese authorities arrested him in August 2022.

董广平于2020年1月通过入境越南再次逃离中国，并在那里从一辆出租车上向盛雪发送了一张自拍照。她说，他在那里隐姓埋名生活了两年多。但越南当局于2022年8月逮捕了他。

Sheng Xue said that she learned from Mr. Dong’s family members in 2023 that he had been taken into Chinese custody again. She said that he was eventually released after at least a year in custody and returned to his home in Henan, but that he still had no income or pension.

盛雪说，她于2023年从董广平的家人处得知，他已再次被中国当局控制。她说，他在被关押了至少一年后最终获释并返回了河南家中，但仍然没有收入或退休金。

“He lost everything,” she said.

“他失去了一切，”她说。

So on Monday, she was not surprised to learn that he had escaped to South Korea. In fact, she said, he told her last year that Mr. Kwon’s earlier escape to South Korea by jet ski had inspired him.

因此，当周一得知他已逃往韩国时，她并不感到惊讶。实际上她说，他去年曾告诉她，权平此前骑摩托艇逃往韩国的事鼓舞了他。

After confirming that Mr. Dong had arrived, she contacted Canadian officials, asking them for help keeping him safe.

在确认董广平抵达后，她联系了加拿大官员，请求他们协助确保他的安全。

“Dong Guangping’s life experience tells us how much freedom means to one’s life,” she said.

“董广平的人生经历告诉我们，自由对一个人的生命而言究竟意味着什么，”她说。

Humans have — presumably — always aspired to living longer, healthier lives. Now that might be more possible than ever before — especially if you have enough money.

人类一直渴望活得更长久、更健康——大概是这样。如今，这个愿望或许比以往任何时候都更有可能实现——尤其是如果你有足够的钱。

Think about the Fountain of Youth. Versions of the promise of a life-giving spring date to Ancient Greek philosophers, with variations through the centuries. But the basic concept was: Find the spring, drink its waters, and you’re young and spry again.

想想“不老泉”吧。关于赋予生命的泉水的种种传说可以追溯到古希腊哲学家，在几个世纪中演变出不同的版本。但基本概念始终如一：找到这口泉水，喝下它，你便能重获青春活力。

Today, people seem more inclined than ever to believe there is a path to better health, increased longevity and an improved healthspan — a term from the 1980s meaning that the quality and quantity of life can more closely align.

如今，人们似乎比以往任何时候都更倾向于相信，存在一条道路，可以通往更健康、更长寿，以及更长的“健康寿命”（healthspan）——这个术语源自上世纪80年代，意指生命的质量与长度更加紧密的结合。

To meet this desire is a growing longevity and wellness industry.

为了满足这种渴望，长寿与健康产业正日益壮大。

Typically on the science side, in addition to doctors in traditional practices are the growing number of concierge medical practices across the country that offer a wide range of services to those who can afford them. Begun in the 1990s and expanding ever since, they eschew insurance in favor of annual retainers that can range from $4,000 to $45,000 or more.

在科学领域，除了传统诊所的医生外，全美各地还出现了越来越多提供礼宾医疗服务的诊所，为负担得起的人提供各种服务。这种模式始于上世纪90年代并不断扩张，它们避开医疗保险，使用年费制，收取每年4000美元到4.5万美元乃至更高的预付会员费。

The internal medicine or family medicine doctors who have started these practices are not necessarily better trained than the doctors who have stayed in the traditional insurance-model practices. But they have chosen to see fewer patients, spend more time with them, and offer in-house services — like scans, for example — that otherwise would have to be outsourced.

创办这些诊所的内科或全科医生并不一定比留在传统保险模式诊所的医生受过更好的训练。但他们选择接待更少的患者，花更多时间在患者身上，并提供原本需要外包的院内服务，例如影像扫描检查。

According to the Private Physicians Alliance, a membership group of concierge doctors, somewhere from 7,000 to 22,000 concierge medical practices operate in the United States today. That’s compared with nearly 400,000 insurance-based medical practices, according to the Bureau of Health Workforce.

据礼宾医生会员组织“私人医生联盟”称，目前美国大约有7000到2.2万家礼宾医疗诊所。相比之下，根据美国卫生人力局的数据，基于保险的医疗诊所将近40万家。

Typically, a concierge doctor sees about 20 percent (or less) of the patients that an insurance-based doctor sees. That patient has the doctor’s cellphone and greater access to the doctor’s time.

通常情况下，礼宾医生接待的患者数量大约是保险内医生的20%（或更少）。患者拥有医生的手机号码，并且能更多地占用医生的时间。

The growing and expanding wellness industry doesn’t have criteria for entry. So aside from trained doctors, it also leaves room for those in the lucrative vitamin and supplement business, which has grown rapidly on the promise of enhancing health and longer life. In 2024, it was valued at $192 billion. Supplements can include tablets, capsules, powders and gummies.

不断发展壮大的健康产业并没有准入门槛。因此，除了受过训练的医生之外，它也为利润丰厚的维生素和补充剂业务留下了空间。这些业务凭借增强健康和延长寿命的承诺而迅速发展。2024年，该行业的估值达1920亿美元。补充剂包括片剂、胶囊、粉剂和软糖等形式。

Medications undergo stringent Food and Drug Administration review and are prescribed by doctors. Vitamins like D, B-12 and iron can be prescribed as well to address specific deficiencies that are identified in blood tests. Supplements, however — like collagen, creatine and fish oils — undergo less rigorous testing and are usually taken voluntarily, rather than prescribed by a doctor.

药物需要经过美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)的严格审查，并由医生开具处方。维生素D、维生素B-12和铁剂等也可以作为处方药开具，以解决在血液检查中发现的特定营养缺乏问题。然而，胶原蛋白、肌酸和鱼油等膳食补充剂的检测不那么严格，且通常是人们自愿服用，而非由医生开具处方。

The F.D.A. puts more of the responsibility for their efficacy on the manufacturers. The American Medical Association has cautioned people from putting too much stock in supplements, which the F.D.A. treats as food and not medicine. Supplements often are sold in monthly subscriptions and frequently promoted by prominent podcasters and influencers, who often generate income through the sale of them.

FDA将确保产品效用的责任更多交给制造商。美国医学会曾警告人们不要过分相信补充剂，因为FDA是将这些产品视为食品而非药物来管理的。补充剂经常以按月订阅的方式销售，并频繁由知名播客和网红进行推广，这些人往往通过销售补充剂来获取收入。

Steve Mister, president and chief executive of the Council for Responsible Nutrition, a trade group for supplements, said the average person spent $50 a month on supplements and is more likely focused on longstanding ones that had proven benefits, like vitamin D, Omega 3 and calcium.

补充剂行业协会“负责任营养理事会”的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·米斯特表示，普通人每月在补充剂上的花费约为50美元，并且更倾向于关注那些历史悠久且已被证明有益的补充剂，比如维生素D、欧米伽-3和钙。

While he is concerned with influencers who make promises that aren’t backed up by science, he also pushed back against doctors who dismiss less-well-known supplements without understanding them. “They’re suspicious of these products because they’re not taught about them in medical school,” Mr. Mister said.

虽然他对网红做出的那些没有科学依据的承诺感到担忧，但他也反驳了那些不了解情况就盲目否定小众补充剂的医生。“他们对这些产品持怀疑态度，是因为他们在医学院没有学过这些内容，”米斯特说。

Combining standard drugs and supplements can be tricky — both for patients and for doctors.

将标准药物和补充剂结合使用可能会很复杂——对患者和医生来说都是如此。

“I had a patient who was on a statin but decided to add red yeast rice as a supplement to lower her LDL cholesterol,” said Dr. Cari Dawson, who runs the Colorado Center for Medical Excellence, a concierge practice in Denver. “The problem was she decided to take her statin every other day, and she took a supplement that you don’t know what’s in it all the time. She picked red yeast rice over a statin that we’ve studied for 30 years.”

“我有一位原本在服用他汀类药物的患者，但她决定添加红曲米作为补充剂来降低低密度脂蛋白胆固醇，”在丹佛经营礼宾诊所科罗拉多卓越医疗中心的卡里·道森医生说。“问题是，她决定隔天服用一次他汀类药物，而且她服用了一种成分不明的补充剂。她选择了红曲米，而不是我们已经研究了30年的他汀类药物。”

Dr. Dawson said she often debunked what people had seen online about statins and supplements, contending that the information had no scientific support.

道森医生说，她经常驳斥人们在网上看到的关于他汀类药物和膳食补充剂的说法，指出这些信息并没有科学依据。

“There’s a lot of noise about statins online,” she said. “Yes, about 5 percent of people will get achy muscles with them. We know that’s real. But 95 percent of people do fine on this drug. And there’s an argument that everyone over the age of 50 should be on a statin to lower their cholesterol.” (She ultimately persuaded the patient to stick with the statin, she said.)

“网上有很多关于他汀类药物的杂音，”她说。“没错，大约有5%的人服用后会感到肌肉酸痛。我们知道这是真实存在的。但是95%的人服用这种药都没问题。而且有一种观点认为，所有50岁以上的人都应该服用他汀类药物来降低胆固醇。”（她说，她最终说服了该患者继续服用他汀类药物。）

“The F.D.A. does not allow supplement companies to market their products as a substitution for prescription drugs,” Mr. Mister said. “I worry about misinformation all the time.”

“FDA不允许补充剂公司将其产品作为处方药的替代品进行销售，”米斯特说。“我一直都在担心错误信息的问题。”

Dr. Dawson said she understood, though, where this searching came from. “If you have anyone who has any distrust of the medical system, they’re always seeking out alternative treatments,” she said.

道森医生表示，她能够理解人们为什么会不断寻找各种替代疗法。“只要有人对医疗体系存在不信任，他们就总会去寻找替代疗法，”她说。

Dr. Anton Titov, founder of Diagnostic Detectives Network, is a supplement opponent, contending that their advocates are driven by financial gains — and playing on the distrust people have in institutions far beyond medicine.

诊断侦探网络公司的创始人安东·季托夫医生反对使用补充剂，他认为补充剂的倡导者是受经济利益驱动的——而且是在利用人们对体制——不仅仅是医疗体制——的不信任。

“You can sell gazillions of supplements and vitamins. You have to see the patient to prescribe the statin. You can’t make money telling people to get on the maximum dose of statins to improve their cardiovascular health,” he said, about the supplement business. His practice finds experts in specialty areas to help clients solve their often complex medical issues. He said he charged a flat fee of around $6,000, which escalates if more experts were needed or he had to do more to connect patients and doctors.

“补充剂和维生素能卖出天文数字般的销量。可你想开他汀类药物，就必须亲自给病人看诊。你不能靠告诉人们服用最大剂量的他汀来改善心血管健康来赚钱，”他在谈到补充剂行业时说道。他的公司会帮客户寻找各专业领域的专家，帮助客户解决他们往往复杂的医疗问题。他表示，自己的服务收费大约是6000美元起步；如果需要更多专家参与，或协调病患与医生的工作量更大的话，费用还会相应增加。

To sort through the various approaches to longevity, a key question might be: What’s the best way to invest money in my health so I live well for decades to come?

要在五花八门的长寿方案中理清头绪，也许有一个核心问题值得先问：怎样把钱花在健康上，才能让自己在未来数十年活得好？

Dr. Jordan Shlain, the founder of Private Medical who is considered one of the earliest concierge doctors, said the focus for everyone, regardless of wealth, was similar. Putting aside fatal accidents, there are four major causes of death: cardiovascular, neurological, cancerous and metabolic, he said.

乔丹·施莱因医生是Private Medical的创始人，被视为礼宾医生的先驱之一。他说，无论贫富，每个人关注的重点其实大同小异。他表示，撇开意外死亡不谈，人类有四大主要死因：心血管疾病、神经系统疾病、癌症和代谢疾病。

“Your genetics are critical, and they account for 50 to 70 percent of your longevity,” Dr. Shlain said. “Then you get to these foundation things: sleep, exercise, diet and social nutrition. Sleep and social interactions are the most important things to focus on.”

“你的基因至关重要，它们决定了你寿命的50%到70%，”施莱因医生说。“然后才轮到这些基础要素：睡眠、锻炼、饮食和社交营养。睡眠和社交互动是最需要关注的事情。”

To manage care through nontraditional medical practices, patients should expect different things at different price points. While the concierge practices generally have smaller patient loads, the offerings can become even more personalized.

通过非传统医疗方式管理健康时，不同价位意味着不同层级的服务。礼宾医疗通常患者量较小，因此服务也可以变得更加个性化。

Dr. Ramon Jacobs-Shaw, a Harvard-trained doctor who is board-certified in internal medicine and pediatrics, is a private doctor, generally defined as one who operates in a self-owned practice outside a larger medical system. He makes old-fashioned house calls from his base in Fairfield County, Conn., and does not see patients in an office. The cost for him to focus on you is $25,000 a year.

拉蒙·雅各布斯-肖医生毕业于哈佛，持有内科与儿科双执照，他是一名私人医生——通常指那些在大型医疗体系之外自立门户执业的医生。他以康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德县为基地，提供老派的上门出诊服务，不在诊所接待病人。他专注为你服务的费用是每年2.5万美元。

“The hallmark of patient care is that doctor-patient relationship,” he said. “Right now, it feels transactional. Health care should not be that way. It requires a relationship, and that requires time.”

“医疗护理最核心的东西是医患关系，”他说。“现在的医疗感觉越来越像一种交易。医疗本不该如此。它需要的是一种关系，而关系需要时间来培养。”

Some concierge doctors are part of practice groups. MD2, which first opened in Seattle in 1996 and now has offices around the country, limits its doctors to 50 patients and charges $30,000 a year. Private Medical, which Dr. Shlain founded, charges $45,000 a year for each patient and sees just 1,500 families in six locations in California, Florida and New York. The Atria Health and Research Institute costs $60,000. Its two locations, New York and Palm Beach, have in-house specialists, including cardiology, neurology and women’s health.

一些礼宾医生隶属于诊所集团。MD2于1996年在西雅图创立，如今已在全美多地设有分支，每位医生的患者数量上限为50人，收费是每年3万美元。施莱因医生创立的Private Medical每位患者年费为4.5万美元，在加利福尼亚州、佛罗里达州和纽约州共有六处诊所，仅为1500个家庭提供服务。阿特里亚健康与研究机构的收费则达到每年6万美元。它在纽约和棕榈滩设有两处中心，设心脏科、神经科、女性健康等驻诊专科医生。

“What’s different about our approach is we focus holistically on the prevention of disease,” said Alan Tisch, Atria Health’s co-founder and chief executive. “We’re primary care plus 15 other specialties. We’re also lifestyle and psychology. We integrate all the most cutting-edge technology in-house so we don’t have to send you out for it. And we’re here to keep you healthy, but we’re also responsible for giving the best care for you and your family when you get sick.”

“我们的与众不同之处在于，我们是从整体上专注于疾病的预防，”阿特里亚健康与研究机构的联合创始人兼首席执行官艾伦·蒂什说。“我们是初级保健加上其他15个专科，同时涵盖生活方式指导和心理健康。我们将所有最前沿的技术整合在院内，无需将你转介他处。我们的职责是让你保持健康，同时也负有为你和你的家人在患病时提供最好的治疗。”

Meantime, regardless of the medical practices one chooses, Dr. Titov said the two things anyone could do to promote their longevity was to focus on their cardiac health and weight. “G.L.P.s [not inexpensive injectable drugs for weight management] are showing that all these other ailments go away when people lose weight. So, get to your ideal weight, and then do exercise.”

与此同时，不管选择哪种医疗体系，安东·季托夫医生认为，每个人都可以做两件真正有助于延寿的事：关注心脏健康，以及控制体重。“GLP类药物（一种价格不菲的注射类减肥药）已经表明，当人们减重之后，很多其他疾病也会随之消失。所以，先把体重降到理想范围，再去运动。”

Dr. Aaron Wenzel, a former emergency room physician and weight-loss doctor, runs a concierge practice in Nashville that is focused on overall wellness. He charges $10,900 a year. “When I was doing E.R. medicine, I had this epiphany that the only people I ever saw improve their health removed excess fat from their body,” he said.

亚伦·温泽尔医生曾是一名急诊科医生和减肥专科医生，目前在纳什维尔经营一家专注于整体健康的礼宾诊所，年费为1.09万美元。“在做急诊的那些年，我明白了一件事：我所见过的健康状况真正改善的人，无一例外都减掉了身上多余的脂肪，”他说。

While G.L.P.s make it easier today, he said his practice focuses on helping people optimize their metabolism. It’s hard work, which is why he has sympathy for people who seek supplements as an easier route.

他表示，尽管GLP类药物让这件事变得容易了，但他的诊所更注重帮助患者优化新陈代谢。不过这并不容易，这也是为什么他对那些转而依赖保健品寻求捷径的人抱有一份同情与理解。

“I’m seeing a lot of people, regardless of economic firepower, be drawn to the noise of the new thing. But their diet, their fitness, their relationships are fragile.”

“我看到很多人，不论经济实力如何，都被各种新鲜事物的喧嚣所吸引。然而他们的饮食、健身习惯和人际关系，其实都非常脆弱。”

Those, he said, are what people need to spend their time and money on the most.

他说，那些才是人们最应该投入时间和金钱的地方。

The men who drafted the Constitution knew they were playing with fire when they created a novel and powerful new office: the president of the United States.

签署宪法的人很清楚，当他们创造一个崭新且强大的新职位——美利坚合众国总统时，他们是在玩火。

“The first man put at the helm will be a good one,” Benjamin Franklin said at the Constitutional Convention in June 1787, referring to George Washington. “No body knows what sort may come afterward. The executive will be always increasing here, as elsewhere, till it ends in a monarchy.”

1787年6月的制宪会议上，本杰明·富兰克林在谈到乔治·华盛顿时说：“第一个掌舵的人会是个君子。但没人知道后面会迎来什么样的人。这里的行政首长会像其他地方一样不断膨胀，直到以君主制告终。”

The framers were not blind to the danger that they were creating a new kind of king, and the Constitution they adopted a few months later tried to strike a balance in inventing what was then a wholly novel office. They wanted a president who was decisive, responsive and responsible. But they also sought to establish a constitutional structure able to constrain a president who aspired to be a monarch.

制宪者们并非没有意识到存在这种创造一个新国王的危险，几个月后他们通过的宪法试图在发明这个当时完全崭新的职位时取得平衡。他们希望总统既有决断力、能顺应民意，又能承担责任。但他们也试图建立一个宪法结构，以此来约束有称王野心的总统。

They differed about how to achieve that balance. Alexander Hamilton, who argued in favor of an exceptionally strong president at the convention — he proposed, for instance, that they should serve for life — wrote in the Federalist Papers that there was more to fear from populists than from those committed to a firm and efficient government.

他们在如何实现这种平衡上存在分歧。亚历山大·汉密尔顿在会议上主张赋予总统极其强大的权力——例如，他曾提议总统应当终身任职——他在《联邦党人文集》中写道，与那些致力于建立坚定且高效政府的人相比，民粹主义者更令人恐惧。

“Of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics,” he wrote, “the greatest number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending tyrants.”

他写道：“在那些推翻共和国自由的人当中，大多数人开始其政治生涯时都是对民众极尽谄媚之能事；他们以煽动家开始，以暴君告终。”

The Constitution’s framers were doubtless brilliant, and the document they drafted has endured. It is the oldest written national constitution still in force anywhere in the world. But, as the nation commemorates its 250th anniversary, some constitutional scholars say the second Trump presidency is calling into question whether the nation’s founding charter and sacred text truly provide the balance the founders wanted.

宪法的制宪者们毫无疑问是卓越的，他们起草的文件也历经了考验。它是世界上所有目前仍在生效的国家宪法中最古老的一部。但是，就在国家隆重纪念建国250周年之际，一些宪法学者表示，特朗普的第二任总统任期正在引发质疑：国家的建国宪章和神圣文本是否真正提供了先贤们所期望的平衡。

President Donald Trump has used the power of the federal government to bully universities, law firms and news outlets; undermined the independence of the Justice Department by instructing it to prosecute his political enemies; defied Congress by impounding money it had instructed him to spend; flouted countless court orders; and cut off funding to states led by Democrats.

唐纳德·特朗普总统利用联邦政府的权力恐吓大学、律师事务所和新闻机构；他通过指示司法部起诉其政治敌人来破坏该部门的独立性；他通过扣留国会指示他支出的资金来对抗国会；他蔑视了无数的法院命令；并切断了对民主党执政各州的资金支持。

That list is hardly exhaustive, and it is certainly possible to quarrel with given items in the bill of particulars. And it is not as if other presidents have always been punctilious in following the Constitution’s commands.

这份清单绝非详尽无遗，而且对具体细节清单中的特定项目当然也存在争议。况且，其他总统也并非总是小心翼翼地遵循宪法的指令。

Still, the second Trump presidency is different in kind, legal scholars said, one that approaches the maximalist view of presidential power that Franklin and other founders feared.

但法律学者表示，即便如此，特朗普的第二任期在本质上也是不同的，它正在逼近富兰克林和其他创始人所担心的总统权力极大化观点。

Saikrishna Prakash, a law professor at the University of Virginia and the author of “The Living Presidency: An Originalist Argument Against Its Ever-Expanding Powers,” said the modern presidency would be unrecognizable to the framers.

弗吉尼亚大学法学教授、《活的总统制：对不断膨胀权力的原意主义抗辩》(The Living Presidency: An Originalist Argument Against Its Ever-Expanding Powers)一书的作者赛克里希纳·普拉卡什表示，现代总统制对制宪者来说已经面目全非。

“I think they’d be astonished, not merely by Trump, but by the breadth of the executive power in the modern era,” he said.

他说：“我认为他们会感到震惊，不仅是对特朗普，还有现代行政权力的广度。”

Less Powerful Than a King

权力弱于国王

国会内的一幅呈现宪法签署场景的画作。

The office the framers created — the American president — was unlike any other chief executive in any other nation at the time. And while other aspects of the Constitution have been quite influential, few modern democracies followed its vision of executive power.

制宪者创造的这一职位——美国总统——在当时与其他任何国家的任何行政首长都不同。虽然宪法的其他方面极具影响力，但很少有现代民主国家遵循了其对行政权力的构想。

The exceptions were mostly in Latin America, where strong presidencies created in the 19th century often degenerated into dictatorships. Parliamentary models, in which the executive — there, the prime minister — emerges from and is accountable to the legislature are more common.

例外情况主要集中在拉丁美洲，那里在19世纪建立的强势总统制往往会蜕变成独裁统治。议会制模型更为普遍，在这一模型中，行政首长——即总理（或首相）——产生于立法机构并对其负责。

In a parliamentary system, the executive and the legislature are in dialogue rather than structural opposition. Prime ministers generally do not serve fixed terms and may be removed by a vote of no confidence.

在议会制体系中，行政机构和立法机构处于对话状态，而不是结构性的对立。总理（或首相）通常没有固定任期，并可能因不信任投票而被罢免。

The framers rejected that model for something new. They were looking for a sweet spot. They wanted a president less powerful than the king they had rebelled against but more effective than the state governors of the time, who were all but powerless, or prime ministers, who were creatures of the legislature.

制宪者拒绝了那种模型，转而寻求某种全新的东西。他们当时在寻找一个黄金平衡点。他们希望总统的权力弱于他们曾反抗的国王，但要比当时几乎毫无权力的各州州长、或是身为立法机构附庸的总理（或首相）更有效率。

The framers were trying to solve a puzzle, Michael W. McConnell, a law professor at Stanford University, wrote in “The President Who Would Not Be King: Executive Power Under the Constitution.” “How could the delegates achieve the independence, vigor, secrecy and dispatch necessary for an effective executive without rendering him an elected monarch?” he asked.

斯坦福大学法学教授迈克尔·W·麦康奈尔在《不会成为国王的总统：宪法下的行政权》(The President Who Would Not Be King: Executive Power Under the Constitution)中写道，制宪者们当时试图解开一个谜题。他问道：“代表们如何在不使行政首长成为民选君主的情况下，实现一个高效行政首长所必需的独立性、活力、保密性和高效执行力？”

Few Checks on a Demagogue

对煽动家的约束寥寥无几

The framers believed that the threat of impeachment and removal would be a decisive check on the president. They envisioned a Congress that would be jealous of its institutional power and would muster, when appropriate, not only a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives to accuse presidents of misconduct but also a two-thirds vote in the Senate to convict and remove them.

制宪者相信，弹劾和罢免的威胁将是对总统的决定性约束。他们设想的国会应当对这一职位的制度权力心怀嫉妒，并在适当的时候，不仅能组织起众议院的简单多数票来指控总统的失职行为，还能组织参议院三分之二的选票来定罪并罢免他们。

“To the extent that they’re worried about a demagogue, they think impeachment will be the mechanism,” Prakash said. “They expected that impeachment would deal with scoundrels.”

普拉卡什说：“就算真的担心出现煽动家，他们也认为弹劾的机制足够了。他们指望弹劾能解决无赖之徒。”

But they failed to anticipate a development that would make impeachment improbable: the rise of political parties.

但他们未能预见到一种会让弹劾变得难以企及的发展：政党的兴起。

The classic account of this constitutional blind spot is “Separation of Parties, Not Powers,” a 2006 article in The Harvard Law Review by Daryl J. Levinson and Richard H. Pildes.

针对这一宪法盲点的经典解释，是达里尔·J·莱文森和理查德·H·皮尔德斯于2006年在《哈佛法律评论》上发表的一篇名为《政党分立，而非权力分立》(Separation of Parties, Not Powers)的文章。

“To this day, the idea of self-sustaining political competition built into the structure of government is frequently portrayed as the unique genius of the U.S. Constitution, the very basis for the success of American democracy,” they wrote. “Yet the truth is closer to the opposite.”

他们写道：“时至今日，内置于政府结构中的自我维持的政治竞争观念仍经常被描绘为美国宪法独特的卓越之处，是美国民主成功的基石。然而，事实却更接近于相反的情况。”

“As competition between the legislative and executive branches was displaced by competition between two major parties,” they added, “the machine that was supposed to go of itself stopped running.”

“随着立法机构与行政机构之间的竞争被两大主要政党之间的竞争所取代，”他们接着说。“原本应该自行运转的机器停止了运行。”

Many presidents have tested the Constitution’s limits. Thomas Jefferson pulled off the Louisiana Purchase even though he believed it was unconstitutional. Abraham Lincoln suspended the writ of habeas corpus. Richard Nixon created a culture of executive lawlessness that culminated in the Watergate scandal and his resignation.

许多总统都曾试探过宪法的极限。托马斯·杰斐逊促成了路易斯安那购地案，尽管他认为这是违宪的。亚伯拉罕·林肯暂停了人身保护令。理查德·尼克松营造了一种行政违法的文化，这种文化最终导致了水门事件和他的辞职。

路易斯安那州共和党参议员比尔·卡西迪2021年接受电视采访时谈及自己为何在弹劾唐纳德·J·特朗普的合宪性问题上改变了投票立场。本月早些时候，卡西迪在一次党内初选中输给了一位由特朗普支持的挑战者。

This suggests the founding generation may have been unduly optimistic about the power of norms and expectations, grounded in part in Washington’s sterling character. “I do think that they expected that the president would be bound by a sense of duty to the law and to the Constitution,” McConnell said.

这表明，建国一代对规范和合理期待的力量可能过于乐观了，而这种乐观部分建立在华盛顿高尚的人格之上。麦康奈尔说：“我确实认为，他们曾指望总统会受到对法律和宪法责任感的约束。”

The rise of political parties, to say nothing of the current extreme polarization between them, has made other forms of congressional supervision of the president vanishingly rare. There have been four presidential impeachments in the history of the United States, of Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton and, twice, Trump. In none of the four cases did the Senate muster the required two-thirds vote to convict.

政党的兴起，更不用说目前两党之间极端的两极分化，使得国会对总统的其他形式监督变得极其罕见。在美国历史上曾发生过四次总统弹劾案，分别是对安德鲁·约翰逊、比尔·克林顿以及两次对特朗普。参议院对这四案均未能组织起定罪所需的三分之二选票。

Today, Prakash said Congress would be entitled to tell the executive branch that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents must display badges and not wear masks. Lawmakers could, he added, forbid the president from using the National Guard to enforce the law.

普拉卡什说，在今天，国会有权告诉行政机构，移民和海关执法局特工必须佩戴徽章且不得戴面具。他还说，立法者可以禁止总统动用国民警卫队来执法。

“They have a lot of authority,” he said. “It’s just that, in the modern era, it’s very hard for them to flex it, because half the Congress is in the president’s pocket and the president has a veto.”

“他们拥有很大的权力，”他说。“只是在现代，他们很难去动用它，因为国会的一半人都站在总统那一边，而且总统还拥有否决权。”

Within an hour of landing in Shanghai, I was sitting in the back of a Didi cab while the driver pleaded with me to game the company’s algorithm. Didi is the “Uber of China” and has a ubiquitous footprint in the country, dispatching tens of millions of rides per day. Could I cancel the ride and pay him directly through WeChat?

落地上海不到一小时，我坐在一辆滴滴的后排，司机正恳求我帮他钻公司算法的空子。滴滴是“中国版优步”，在中国几乎无处不在，每天要派出数千万单行程。他问我能不能取消订单，然后直接通过微信转账给他。

There was an oversupply of drivers competing for too few fares, he explained. After dropping me off, he would be sent straight back to the airport, where he would have to wait for hours for another pickup. If I canceled, he could take a place near the front of the line. “I hope you understand,” he said. “I’ve got an older and a younger generation to support.”

他解释说，现在司机太多，而活儿太少。把我送到目的地之后，系统会立刻把他派回机场，而他又得等上好几个小时，才能接到下一单。如果我取消订单，他就可以排到队伍的前面。“希望你能理解，”他说。“我上有老、下有小。”

The driver’s plight reminded me of the DoorDash workers in the United States whose earnings are controlled by optimized dispatch systems, or the Amazon Flex workers who compete for scarce delivery blocks, never certain when the next job will come.

这位司机的困境让我想起了美国的DoorDash送餐员——他们的收入受到优化调度系统的控制；还有亚马逊Flex的司机，他们争抢有限的配送时段，永远不确定下一份工作何时到来。

I have spent years reporting and living in both the United States and China and wrote a book chronicling the history and evolution of the Chinese internet. Moving between the two countries, I’ve been struck by how they have come to mirror and resemble each other. There is a shared sense of precarity that lies beneath the envy and distrust: the technological future is taking shape at vertiginous speed yet its promise is not shared by all.

多年来，我在美中两国生活、做报道，还出版了一本关于中国互联网历史与演变的书。往返两国间，我惊讶地发现，它们竟已变得如此相似、如出一辙。在羡慕与猜忌之下，隐藏着一种共同的不安全感：技术的未来正以令人眩晕的速度成形，而它所许诺的红利，并非人人有份。

The growth of artificial intelligence has been presented as a rivalry between two fundamentally different systems. America commands capital and chips while China marshals engineering talent and manufacturing prowess. America holds an edge in building software — enterprise tools and cloud platforms. China leads in hardware — humanoids and autonomous vehicles. America pushes ahead with frontier models, with its artificial intelligence labs making moonshot bets to build a superintelligence. China focuses on scale and diffusion, with its tech firms embedding A.I. as quickly as possible in every sector of society.

人工智能的发展一直被描绘成两种根本不同体制之间的较量。美国掌握着资本和芯片；而中国则调动工程人才和制造实力。美国在构建软件（企业工具和云平台）方面占据优势；而中国则在硬件领域领先（人形机器人和自动驾驶汽车）。美国在前沿模型上发力，其人工智能实验室豪赌超级智能的打造；中国则专注于规模和普及，其科技公司尽可能迅速地将人工智能嵌入社会的各个领域。

We’ve been told that the ultimate prize in A.I. is the achievement of artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I. The country that figures this out, the theory holds, will establish world dominance through turbocharged economic and military power. In podcasts and political speeches — shaped by Silicon Valley executives and Washington policy wonks — the United States and China are almost always “battling,” “competing,” or “locked” in this race. China is years behind, no, months behind; it’s pulling ahead; it’s winning; it’s losing, it’s racing toward A.G.I., not racing toward A.G.I.; or it’s racing on a different track.

我们一直被灌输这样一种观念：人工智能的终极目标是实现通用人工智能(AGI)。理论上讲，谁搞定了AGI，谁就能通过经济与军事力量的双重飞跃确立全球霸主地位。在播客和政治演讲中——由硅谷高管和华盛顿的政策专家塑造的叙事里——美中几乎总是在这场竞赛中“较量”、“竞争”或“胶着”。中国落后数年——不对，是落后数月；它正迎头赶上；它要赢了；它输了；它正朝着AGI全力冲刺——不对，它并没有冲向AGI；又或者，它其实是在另一条赛道上奔跑。

The story of the race blew up last year after the introduction of DeepSeek R1, a Chinese open-source model that reportedly rivaled U.S. frontier models at a fraction of the cost. A wave of “China envy” overtook U.S. tech leaders who marveled at China’s speed in building bridges, high-speed trains and advanced prototypes. Marc Andreessen warned that the United States must reindustrialize or fall behind a world of “Chinese robots.”

去年，DeepSeek R1横空出世后彻底引爆这场竞赛的叙事——据称，中国的这款开源模型以极低的成本达到了美国顶尖模型的水平。一股“羡慕中国”的情绪随即席卷美国科技界，他们惊叹于中国建造桥梁、高铁和先进原型机的速度。马克·安德森警告说，美国必须再工业化，否则就会在“中国机器人”主导的世界里落败。

The leftist influencer Hasan Piker traveled to China in 2025, a copy of Mao Zedong’s quotations in hand, to see what America might “adopt and emulate.” The popular YouTuber Darren Watkins, known as IShowSpeed, streamed his trip to Shenzhen, where he danced with humanoids and ordered KFC by drone. Just as Chinese people were once transfixed by American consumer abundance — its shopping malls and sprawling suburbs — Americans have become obsessed with China’s robots and manufacturing power.

左翼网红哈桑·派克在2025年手持一本毛主席语录前往中国，想看看美国可以“借鉴与效仿”之处。知名YouTube博主IShowSpeed（本名达伦·沃特金斯）直播了他的深圳之行，他在那里与人形机器人共舞，还体验了无人机送来的肯德基。正如中国人曾经对美国消费主义的丰盛景象心驰神往——那些购物中心和庞大的郊区——如今，美国人却开始痴迷中国机器人与制造业实力。

But looking past the headlines and the highlight reels, you can see the sharp divide in both countries brought on by A.I. Those who build and bankroll the technology speak of the future as a promise to be profited from, an opportunity to be exploited. In Silicon Valley, college dropouts talk of A.I. tackling climate change and curing disease. Researchers are courted with nine-figure salaries like N.B.A. stars, and roadside billboards call on residents to “Supercharge your A.I.” and “Stop Hiring Humans.” Tech workers have earnestly adopted China’s infamous “996” work schedule: 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. They are hustling hard and “locking in” to ensure that they emerge as the rich and powerful victors of the A.I. gold rush.

但抛开头条新闻和精剪短视频，你会发现人工智能在两国都造成了深刻的分裂。那些创造并资助技术的人把未来视为一种可以获利的承诺、一个可以被利用的机会。在硅谷，辍学创业的年轻人大谈人工智能如何应对气候变化、攻克疾病。研究人员像NBA球星一样，被九位数的酬劳争抢，路边的广告牌呼吁民众“为你的AI加足马力”和“停止雇用人类”。科技从业者甚至认真采纳了中国臭名昭著的“996”工作制：早九晚九，每周六天。他们拼命工作、“锁定状态”，只为确保自己能在这场人工智能淘金热中笑到最后，成为富贵赢家。

China’s tech hubs are driven by a similar sense of urgency. In Beijing’s Zhongguancun, known as China’s Silicon Valley, office towers stay lit deep into the night as A.I. lab employees hustle to beat their rivals across the road. Companies poach one another’s star engineers while freelance coders burn through tens of thousands of Claude tokens to vibecode products. The start-up founders hunt for what they call the fengkou or “wind vent” — an opportunity that, if seized at the right moment, can propel an entrepreneur straight to fortune. They study translations of Peter Thiel’s “Zero to One” and lionize Elon Musk because, as one tech worker told me, “He moves quickly, his execution is crazy and he can really deliver stuff.”

中国的科技中心同样被紧迫感驱动。在北京被称为中国硅谷的中关村，写字楼灯火通明直至深夜，人工智能实验室的员工正在奋力击败马路对面的对手。企业互相挖角明星工程师，而自由职业的码农们消耗着数以万计的Claude代币来进行氛围编程，快速搞出产品。创业公司创始人寻找他们口中的“风口”——一个如果在正确的时机抓住，就能让企业家一夜致富的机会。他们研读彼得·蒂尔的《从0到1》(Zero to One)的中译本，并把埃隆·马斯克奉为偶像，正如一位科技工作者告诉我的，“他行动迅速，执行力疯狂，而且真的能把东西做出来。”

China’s most recent wind vent was “raising lobsters” — a shorthand for training the free, open-source A.I. agent OpenClaw. Nearly 1,000 people, from amateur coders to housewives, lined up outside the tech giant Tencent’s headquarters to install the software on their devices. Users claimed that OpenClaw could kick-start side hustles and double stock returns; parents bought “lobster installation services” for their grade school children to keep up with their peers. Tech companies raced to monetize this anxiety, charging users for cloud servers and software access. “This is not ‘embracing the future,’” one disillusioned user on RedNote described the OpenClaw craze. “It’s ‘being harvested by the future.’”

中国最近的一个风口是“养龙虾”——这是对训练免费开源人工智能代理OpenClaw的戏称。从业余程序员到家庭主妇，近千人在科技巨头腾讯总部外排队，给自己的设备安装该软件。用户声称，OpenClaw能帮忙搞副业、让股票回报翻倍；家长们甚至为自己上小学的孩子购买“龙虾安装服务”，生怕孩子落后于同龄人。科技公司竞相利用这种焦虑变现，向用户收取云服务器和软件使用费。“这不是‘拥抱未来’，”小红书上一个感到失望的用户这样形容OpenClaw，“这是‘被未来收割’。”

Farther south in Shenzhen, China’s hardware capital, start-ups boast of operating at “Shenzhen speed” and have been embedding A.I. into everything from coffee makers to construction cranes. At a high-tech fair in the city, hosted in 20 halls the size of airport hangars, I walked by stalls advertising A.I. pianos, A.I. beef noodle makers, A.I. holographic tour guides and A.I. English tutors. I sat down in front of an A.I.-powered traditional Chinese medicine doctor that scanned my tongue and delivered a diagnosis. A crowd gathered around a boxing ring, cheering on a pair of sparring humanoids made by the robotics giant Unitree.

再往南，在中国硬件之都深圳，创业公司自豪地宣称自己以“深圳速度”运转，竞相将人工智能植入从咖啡机到工程吊车的一切设备之中。在这座城市举办的一个高科技博览会上（展厅多达20个，每个都像飞机库那么大），我走过一个个展位，看到了AI钢琴、AI牛肉面机、AI全息导游和AI英语家教。我在一台AI中医前坐下，它扫描了我的舌头，然后给出了诊断。一群人围着一个拳击台，为宇树科技制造的一对正在对擂的人形机器人欢呼喝彩。

“It’s a highly competitive environment right now,” a Shenzhen software engineer told me. “I feel like if I stop, I’ll be left behind.” His anxiety is not new. Unstable work situations and economic insecurity long predate the current A.I. boom. But A.I. has supercharged those anxieties and made them much harder to contest.

 “现在的环境竞争非常激烈，”一位深圳的软件工程师告诉我。“我觉得一旦停下来，就会被抛在后面。”他的焦虑并不新鲜。不稳定的工作状况和经济上的不安全感早在当前的人工智能热潮之前就已存在。但人工智能加剧了这些焦虑，也使得人们更难与之抗衡。

A parallel set of memes has emerged to capture the sense of powerlessness. In the United States, the Silicon Valley tech elite identify as “high agency,” while the rest of us are “bots” condemned to the “permanent underclass.” In China, ordinary workers describe themselves as shechu (“corporate cattle”) and jiabangou (“overtime dogs.”) These same workers have long used the viral term “involution” to capture the feeling of being trapped in a cycle of meaningless competition. In both countries, those disaffected by A.I. identify with the gaming meme of the “NPC” or “non-player character.” They feel like the background role in someone else’s video game, existing only to fill the world but not to shape it.

一系列平行的网络迷因应运而生，捕捉到这种无力感。在美国，硅谷科技精英自诩拥有“高自主性”，而我们其余的人则是注定沦为“永久底层”的“机器人”。在中国，普通打工人将自己描绘成“社畜”和“加班狗”。同样是这些工人，长期以来一直用“内卷”这个爆红词汇来表达那种被困在无意义竞争循环中的感觉。在这两个国家，对人工智能感到不满的人都把自己比作游戏中的“NPC”（也就是“非玩家角色”）。他们觉得自己就像是别人电子游戏里的背景角色，存在的意义仅仅是为了填充这个世界，而不是去塑造它。

In 2025, a group of A.I. researchers from the United States, Canada and Europe coined the term “gradual disempowerment” to describe a future in which ever more capable A.I. would quietly erode human agency. The technology would steer our core institutions with little regard for human values. Though framed as a future risk, to someone who has been observing the United States and China closely, it already felt like a diagnosis of the present day.

2025年，一群来自美国、加拿大和欧洲的人工智能研究人员创造了“渐进式失权”一词，用来描述未来能力日益强大的人工智能将如何悄无声息地侵蚀人类的能动性。这项技术将主导我们的核心机构，却几乎不顾及人类的价值观。尽管这被描绘成一种未来的风险，但对于一直密切观察中美两国的人来说，这感觉已经像是对当下的诊断。

The knowledge workers of both countries feel the surveillance presence of the technology. A.I. is now used in decisions to hire and fire employees. It tracks attendance at work, predicts an employee’s growth potential, flags “idle hours” and enforces discipline.

两国的知识工作者都感受到了这种技术带来的监控压力。如今，人工智能被用于员工雇佣和解雇的决策。它追踪工作出勤率，预测员工的成长潜力，标记“闲散时间”，并执行纪律管理。

Outside the office, both Chinese and Americans have become enamored with A.I. as a source of frictionless companionship and emotional validation, with companies now monetizing emotional intimacy at scale. Over 70 percent of American teenagers report using chatbots as companions, nearly one in eight for mental health support.

在办公室之外，中美两国民众都开始迷恋人工智能，将其视为提供无摩擦陪伴和情感认同的源泉，而企业现在正大规模地将情感亲密关系变现。超过70%的美国青少年报告说他们使用聊天机器人作为陪伴者，近八分之一的人将其作为心理健康支持。

Similarly, in China, one survey found that nearly half of young Chinese had used an A.I. chatbot to discuss their mental health. In a country where living alone is quickly becoming the norm — with single-person households expected to possibly reach 200 million by 2030 — A.I. companions have emerged as a quick fix to a growing loneliness epidemic.

同样，在中国，一项调查发现，近一半的中国年轻人曾使用人工智能聊天机器人讨论自己的心理健康问题。在一个独居正迅速成为常态的国家——预计到2030年，单身家庭数量可能达到2亿——面对日益严重的孤独流行病，人工智能伴侣已成为一种速效解药。

This year, the app “Are You Dead?” — which alerts a contact if a user fails to check-in — has been wildly popular. (Its Chinese name, Sileme, is a morbid play on the name of the popular food delivery app Ele.me, meaning “Are You Hungry?”) But “Are You Dead?” addresses a serious need: the growing number of people who are living solo, far away from family and deprived of social support, and who are afraid of disappearing without being noticed.

今年，一款名为“死了么”的应用程序非常受欢迎——如果用户未能在规定时间内打卡，它就会向联系人发出警报——这个中文名字是对流行外卖应用“饿了么”的一种略带病态的戏仿。但是，“死了么”解决了一个严肃的需求：越来越多的人独自生活，远离家人，缺乏社会支持，他们害怕自己悄然离世却无人察觉。

The people of both countries are turning toward the spiritual for solace and agency in a world accelerating out of their control. The 20-somethings of America check astrology apps like Co-Star, part of a $3 billion dollar industry. Some in Gen Z are rediscovering Christianity, and religious conservatism has re-entered public life. In China, fortunetelling bars have popped up in cities, astrology apps like Cece are going viral and young people are consulting DeepSeek to predict their futures.

在一个正在加速失控的世界里，两国民众都在转向精神层面寻求慰藉和掌控感。20多岁的美国人热衷查看Co-Star这样的占星应用，这已成为一个价值30亿美元的产业。一些Z世代正在重新发现基督教，宗教保守主义重新进入了公共生活。在中国，占卜酒吧在各大城市涌现，像“测测”这样的占星应用正在走红，年轻人们甚至向DeepSeek请教，预测自己的未来。

Last fall in Beijing, I found myself at a dinner with a group of women in their 20s and 30s whose conversation circled familiar anxieties: shrinking job prospects (and recruitment horror stories), disenchantment with dating (none of them wanted to get married or have children), and a growing fascination with bazi, tarot and the occult. When I asked one guest about tarot’s rising appeal, she answered simply, “No one turns to tarot when times are good.”

去年秋天在北京，我参加了一场晚宴，同席的是一群二三十岁的女性，她们的谈话围绕着熟悉的焦虑：日益萎缩的就业前景（以及招聘中的恐怖故事），对约会的幻想破灭（她们中没有一个人想结婚生子），以及对八字、塔罗牌和玄学日益增长的痴迷。我问一位客人，为什么塔罗牌越来越受欢迎，她简单地回答说：“时运好的时候，没人会去算塔罗牌。”

When the future loses its promise, the past becomes a refuge. Both societies have seen a surge of nostalgia, a longing for a time remembered as simpler and more stable. Many Chinese idolize rural vloggers such as the celebrity YouTuber Li Ziqi, who rose to viral fame during the pandemic by sharing videos of her self-sufficient, pastoral life in the Sichuan countryside. You can see the same dynamics in the popularity of the tradwife Instagrammer known as Ballerina Farm, who documents her Utah homestead, milking cows and making doughnuts from scratch for her eight children. Both of those women live off the grid and embody an imagined idyll where chatbots and corporations do not exist.

当未来失去承诺时，过去就成了避难所。两个社会都出现了怀旧热潮，人们渴望回到记忆中那个更简单、更稳定的时代。许多中国人崇拜乡村视频博主，比如著名YouTuber李子柒，她在疫情期间因为分享自己在四川乡下自给自足的田园生活视频而爆红。在Instagram上以Ballerina Farm为名大受欢迎的一位传统主妇博主身上，也能看到同样的现象，她记录了自己在犹他州的农场生活，挤牛奶，亲手为她的八个孩子制作甜甜圈。这两位女性都过着与世隔绝的生活，体现了一种想象中的田园诗篇——在那里，聊天机器人和企业都不复存在。

Nostalgia also has a dark side, encouraging the rise of once fringe, illiberal ideas into the mainstream. This has been underway in China for years, with its influencers and ideologues rejecting liberal ideas and drifting toward a conservative centralized authority. In the United States, we see the growing influence of pundits like Curtis Yarvin, who argues that liberal democracy should be dismantled in favor of a C.E.O.-led monarchy and whose ideas have found an audience among both America’s tech and political elite, from Peter Thiel to JD Vance.

怀旧也有其黑暗的一面，它助长了曾经处于边缘的非自由主义思想步入主流。这在中国已经发生多年，网红和理论家们拒绝自由主义思想，逐渐走向保守的中央集权体制。在美国，我们看到像柯蒂斯·雅文这样的评论人士影响力日益增长，他主张应该废除自由民主制，代之以由首席执行官领导的君主制，而他的思想在美国的科技和政治精英中都找到了受众，从彼得·蒂尔到 JD·万斯。

Faced with such a system, the simplest response is to surrender: accept one’s fate, sink into the apathy of inevitable decline and, in the words of Chinese netizens, “let it rot.” It’s easy to flee the friction of the real world for the comfort of our feeds and to confide in chatbots rather than friends. In doing so, we enable our leaders to leverage our fears and displace our anxieties onto the meme version of a foreign country.

面对这样一个系统，最简单的反应就是投降：接受命运，陷入对不可避免的衰退所带来的麻木之感，用中国网民的话来说，就是“摆烂”。人们很容易逃避现实世界的摩擦，躲进信息流的舒适区，向聊天机器人而不是朋友倾诉。这样一来，我们就助长了领导者利用我们的恐惧，将我们的焦虑转移到一个被网络迷因塑造的外国形象上。

Instead of addressing A.I.’s challenges in isolation, why not bring together people from all sectors of society to reclaim agency over our own lives? We can pursue collaboration, as scientists and policymakers have already begun to do. On the sidelines of the World A.I. Conference in Shanghai last summer, scientists from across the world met to address critical A.I. risks, calling for international cooperation to ensure that advanced A.I. systems remain aligned with human values.

与其孤立地应对人工智能的挑战，为什么不将社会各界人士聚集起来，重新夺回我们对自己生活的能动性呢？我们可以寻求合作，就像科学家和政策制定者已经开始做的那样。在去年夏天上海举行的世界人工智能大会场外，来自世界各地的科学家聚在一起探讨了人工智能的关键风险，呼吁国际合作，以确保先进的人工智能系统始终与人类的价值观保持一致。

Workers can band together to resist toxic work cultures at Big Tech firms that sacrifice human dignity for profit and competition. It was only in 2019 that Chinese programmers launched the 996.ICU campaign on GitHub, to protest grueling work hours. They drew support from U.S. tech workers and hundreds of tech employees worldwide, from Spain to Singapore, one of the largest online mobilizations of tech workers in history.

科技巨头为了利润和竞争而牺牲人类尊严，工人们可以团结起来抵制这种有毒的企业文化。就在2019年，中国程序员在GitHub上发起了996.ICU运动，抗议令人精疲力竭的工作时间。他们得到了美国科技工作者以及从西班牙到新加坡的全球数百名科技员工的支持，这是历史上规模最大的科技工作者在线动员之一。

Once you step back, it’s easy to see the warping effect of the U.S. vs. China race. It’s a story used to justify sprinting ahead without guardrails in the name of beating the other. By focusing on our rivalry, we have become blind to our vulnerability. Instead of fixating on who crosses the finish line first, we must work together to lift up the people that both countries have left behind.

退后一步看，我们不难发现美中竞争带来的扭曲效应。打着击败对方的旗号，这种叙事成了不要护栏、全力冲刺的借口。因为专注竞争，我们对自身的脆弱变得盲目。我们不应执迷于谁先冲过终点线，而是必须携手合作，去扶持那些被这两个国家抛在后面的人们。

Silicon Valley has always had messianic dreams, dating back to the days when computers filled entire rooms.

硅谷一直以来都怀揣着救世主式的梦想，这可以追溯到计算机动辄占据整个房间的时代。

One of the oldest industry jokes has a programmer asking a computer, “Is there a God?” The computer answers: “There is now.” The Whole Earth Catalog, a proto-hacker compendium of tools that deeply influenced Steve Jobs, proclaimed, “We are as gods and might as well get good at it.”

业内最古老的笑话之一是一个程序员问计算机：“上帝存在吗？”计算机回答道：“现在存在了。”曾对史蒂夫·乔布斯产生深远影响的黑客工具指南雏形《全球目录》(Whole Earth Catalog)曾宣称：“我们与神无异，既然如此，不妨让自己变得擅长于此。”

By investing hundreds of billions of dollars in artificial intelligence, tech leaders are signaling that those early dreams have been fulfilled. Next stop, transcendence.

通过向人工智能领域投入数千亿美元，科技领袖们正在释放一个信号，即当初那些梦想已经实现。下一站，便是超越。

Just as the new religion of A.I. seemed to be solidifying its control over mankind’s destiny, however, a new voice is being heard on the other side of the world.

然而，正当这种新的人工智能宗教似乎正在巩固其对人类命运的控制时，地球的另一端传来了一种全新的声音。

Its message to the tech industry: Slow down. Elevate the human. Machines are not gods.

它向科技行业传达的信息是：慢下来。给人类带去提升。机器不是神。

Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, published with great ceremony on Monday his first encyclical, Magnifica Humanitas, or “Magnificent Humanity.” The 42,300-word policy statement is respectful and named no names, but is at heart a sharp rebuke to Silicon Valley’s assertions that it alone can be trusted to develop the future.

第一位美国籍教宗良十四世周一隆重发表了他的首份通谕——《崇高人性》(Magnifica Humanitas)。这份长达42300词的政策声明言辞克制且没有指名道姓，但其实质上是对硅谷坚信只有自己才配引领未来这一主张的尖锐斥责。

“A.I. can be a valuable tool,” the pope acknowledged, but the technology “tends to amplify the power of those who already possess economic resources, expertise and access to data.” Without adequate oversight and transparency, he warned, “those who control A.I. will impose their own moral vision, which will become the invisible infrastructure of these systems.”

“人工智能可以成为一种宝贵的工具，”教宗承认，但这项技术“往往会放大那些已经拥有经济资源、专业知识和数据获取渠道的人的权力。”他警告说，如果没有充分的监管和透明度，“控制人工智能的人将强加他们自己的道德图景，而这会成为这些系统的隐形基础设施。”

That would be bad news, he said: “A more moral A.I. is not enough if that morality is determined by a few.”

他表示，那将是一场灾难：“如果道德仅由少数人决定，那么一个更具道德感的人工智能也是不够的。”

The encyclical is expected to be at the center of the 70-year-old pontiff’s reign in the same way that Rerum Novarum, which advocated for workers’ rights and a fair wage, was at the heart of Pope Leo XIII’s papacy at the end of the 19th century. Released while Silicon Valley slept, Magnifica Humanitas marked the latest effort to shape and possibly restrain the A.I. boom.

这份通谕预计将成为这位70岁教宗执政时期的核心，正如19世纪末教宗良十三世倡导工人权利和公平薪酬的《新事》通谕在其任期内的核心地位一样。在硅谷还在熟睡时发表的《崇高人性》标志着引导并可能限制人工智能热潮的最新尝试。

President Trump last week came close to signing a measure that would have given the federal government the power to evaluate A.I. models before they were publicly released — then canceled the signing. The same day, California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, signed a measure to study A.I.’s impact on employment, an acknowledgment of the turmoil the companies insist is coming. Elon Musk, who has his own A.I. ambitions, tried to derail OpenAI, the leading A.I. company, with a lawsuit but was thwarted this month on technical grounds.

特朗普总统上周险些签署一项法案，该法案原本将赋予联邦政府在人工智能模型公开发布前对其进行评估的权力——但他随后取消了签署。同一天，加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森签署了一项法案，旨在研究人工智能对就业的影响，这等同于承认了各大公司坚称即将到来的动荡。本身也抱有人工智能雄心的埃隆·马斯克曾试图通过诉讼摧毁领先的人工智能公司OpenAI，但本月因技术性原因遭到驳回。

Magnifica Humanitas arrives as a challenge to tech moguls like Mr. Musk, whose power and influence rival such medieval popes as Innocent III. Pope Innocent asserted that the papacy was the sun and mere kings the moon: The latter could not be seen without the light cast by the former.

《崇高人性》的到来对像马斯克这样的科技巨头构成了挑战，他们的权力和影响力已经可以与依诺增爵三世等中世纪教宗相媲美。依诺增爵教宗曾断言，教廷是太阳，而世俗君王只是月亮：后者如果没有前者投射的光芒就无法被看见。

Love ’em or hate ’em, Mr. Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman and their peers exert similar influence on our modern kings, which is to say politicians. The American economy is being propped up by spending on A.I. The technology is being deployed in offices and classrooms with dizzying speed and unknown effect.

无论你喜欢还是讨厌他们，马斯克、马克·扎克伯格、彼得·蒂尔、萨姆·奥尔特曼以及他们的同行对现代的君王（也就是政治人物）施加着类似的影响。美国经济目前正受到人工智能支出的支撑。这项技术正以令人眩晕的速度和未知的影响被部署到办公室和课堂中。

The old religion challenging the new is a dramatic story, the stuff of thrillers.

古老宗教挑战新兴宗教是一个富有戏剧性的故事，堪称惊悚片的绝佳素材。

Silicon Valley has encountered little public opposition in its 50-year history. Certainly nothing with the sweep and authority of Magnifica Humanitas. Pope Leo is the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics, and instructing them to be cautious or even suspicious of A.I. — especially if the warning is regularly reinforced among the laity — could put a dent in tech’s global ambitions.

硅谷在其50年的历史中鲜少遇到公众的反对。像《崇高人性》这样具有广泛影响力和权威性的反对当然就更不存在了。教宗是14亿天主教徒的精神领袖，指示他们对人工智能保持谨慎甚至怀疑——特别是如果这种警告在信徒中得到定期强化——可能会挫败科技行业的全球雄心。

“How much influence does the pope have in our secular Western world?” asked Timothy Ahn, a doctoral candidate at the University of California, Berkeley, studying the development of A.I. in religious institutions. “We’re about to see. I doubt that tech executives in Palo Alto are going to be reading this encyclical.”

“在我们这个世俗的西方世界，教宗究竟有多大的影响力？”加州大学伯克利分校研究宗教机构中人工智能发展的博士候选人蒂莫西·安(Timothy Ahn)问道。“我们即将得到答案。我估计帕洛阿尔托的科技高管们不会去读这份通谕。”

In the best-case scenario, said Mr. Ahn, a former seminarian, the encyclical “will shape some moral deliberations.”

曾是修生的蒂莫西·安表示，这份通谕最多也只能是“引发一些道德层面的考量”。

Popes have traditionally worked with the long term in mind, and any evaluation of the encyclical’s effect is years away. Those who know both Silicon Valley and the Vatican say any expectations of a head-on confrontation, much less a holy war, are misguided. A decade ago, Pope Francis began inviting tech luminaries in for an annual A.I. conference called the Minerva Dialogues.

教宗们传统上行事都着眼于长远，对这份通谕影响力的任何评估也都是多年后的事了。对硅谷和梵蒂冈均有了解的人士表示，不应指望会出现正面冲突乃至圣战。十年前，方济各教宗就已开始邀请科技巨头参加一年一度的名叫“密涅瓦对话”的人工智能会议。

In any case, if Leo confronted Silicon Valley outright, he would probably lose.

无论如何，如果良与硅谷正面交锋，他很可能会输。

The fact that the Vatican unveiled the encyclical with Christopher Olah, a co-founder of Anthropic, the self-styled “good” A.I. firm, pointed to the possibility that Leo is trying less to undermine A.I. than simply participate in the conversation around it. When Francis released his scathing encyclical about climate change in 2015, no oil company executives were invited to speak.

梵蒂冈邀请了自诩为“善良”人工智能公司的Anthropic联合创始人克里斯托弗·奥拉共同发布这份通谕，这一事实表明，与其说教宗是想破坏人工智能，倒不如说只是想参与到相关的对话中来。当方济各在2015年发表关于气候变化的严厉通谕时，可没有任何石油公司的顶级高管获邀发言。

Luke Burgis, the founder of the Cluny Institute, which explores how faith and reason bear on technology and innovation, was optimistic that Leo’s words would have an effect.

探索信仰与理性如何影响技术和创新的克鲁尼研究所创始人卢克·布尔吉斯乐观地认为，良十四世的话会产生效果。

“This encyclical is a live wire that truly has the potential to change what is getting built in Silicon Valley,” said Mr. Burgis, also a former seminarian. “It could help to give people a vocabulary to understand a new thing, in the same way that Rerum Novarum helped people understand the concept of a just wage.”

“这份通谕是一根充满活力的导火索，真正有可能改变硅谷正在建造的东西，”同样曾是修生的布尔吉斯说。“它可以帮助人们获得理解新事物的词汇，就像《新事》通谕曾帮助人们理解公正薪酬的概念一样。”

But it won’t happen automatically, or quickly, or easily.

但这不会自动、迅速或轻易地发生。

“The church is only beginning its work here,” Mr. Burgis said. “It needs to engage with a powerful counterforce that currently has it outnumbered, in both capital and compute.”

“教会在这里的工作才刚刚开始，”布尔吉斯说。“它需要与一个强大的反对力量交锋，而对方目前在资本和算力上都占有绝对优势。”

The Indian rupee and the Philippine peso have fallen to record lows. Japan and South Korea have spent billions propping up their currencies in an attempt to avoid the same fate. The Indonesian rupiah is now weaker than it was at the depths of the Asian financial crisis.

印度卢比和菲律宾比索已跌至历史新低。日本和韩国也已耗资数百亿美元支撑本国货币，试图避免遭遇同样的命运。印尼盾比当年亚洲金融危机最严重时期还要疲软。

For Asian countries that rely heavily on imported energy, the war in the Middle East has already sent oil prices soaring. Now, they face a knock-on effect that has grown into a crisis of its own: tumbling currency values, battered by rising fuel costs and skittish investors fleeing to the safety of the U.S. dollar.

对于严重依赖进口能源的亚洲国家而言，中东的战争已经导致石油价格飙升。如今，它们正面临着一场已演变成独立危机的连锁反应：在燃料成本上涨以及谨慎的投资者纷纷逃向美元这一避风港的打击下，货币价值大幅下跌。

To stem the slide, central banks across Asia have repeatedly intervened in currency markets, drawing down foreign exchange reserves they amassed over the years for precisely this kind of moment.

为了遏制跌势，亚洲各国央行一再干预外汇市场，动用了多年来正是为了应对这种时刻而积累的外汇储备。

Those interventions, which involve selling dollars and buying local currencies, have averted an outright free fall. But with no end to the war in sight, concerns are rising about the long-term costs of riding out the crisis, including how long central banks can keep depleting their reserves if import prices continue to climb.

这些干预措施包括抛售美元和买入本币，避免了货币出现彻底的自由落体式暴跌。但由于战争仍看不到尽头，人们日益担忧渡过这场危机的长期成本，包括进口价格继续攀升的情况下，央行还能持续消耗储备多久。

“At what pace of reserve drawdown does the ‘We have large reserves’ argument begin to lose its reassuring quality?” asked Sana Ur Rehman, a financial market analyst at EBC Financial Group.

“外汇储备究竟要以怎样的速度流失，‘我们拥有巨额储备’这一论调才会开始失去安抚作用？”EBC金融集团的金融市场分析师萨纳·乌尔·雷赫曼问道。

Ordinary people across Asia are beginning to feel the effects of weakening currencies, especially in the nations hit the hardest by the energy shock, including India, Indonesia and the Philippines. When currencies sag, imports — from fuel to food — become more expensive. Those rising prices tend to hit poorer families the hardest, since they spend a larger portion of their income on essentials.

整个亚洲的普通民众都开始感受到货币贬值带来的影响，尤其是在受能源冲击最严重的国家，包括印度、印度尼西亚和菲律宾。当货币走弱时，从燃料到食品的进口商品都会变得更加昂贵。物价上涨往往对贫困家庭的打击最大，因为他们将收入中更大比例用于购买生活必需品。

马尼拉的一个市场。货币贬值正推高生活必需品的价格，这对将大部分收入用于购买基本生活用品的低收入家庭造成了冲击。德里街头等候公交车的通勤者。燃料和商品价格的上涨给印度经济带来了压力。

The throttling of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil and gas moving out of the Persian Gulf, has driven oil prices up nearly 50 percent since the war started. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, is trading around $105 a barrel.

霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾石油和天然气运输的关键航道，该海峡航运受阻导致自战争爆发以来油价上涨近50%。全球原油基准布伦特原油的交易价格目前在每桶105美元左右。

Asia remains highly sensitive to swings in the foreign exchange markets, still scarred by the 1997 currency crisis, when currencies across the region collapsed under the weight of a surging dollar.

亚洲对外汇市场的波动仍然高度敏感，1997年货币危机的伤痕犹存，当时该地区的货币在美元飙升的重压下纷纷崩盘。

Recent moves in the U.S. bond market have compounded the strain. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a two-decade high above 5 percent, lifting the dollar and accelerating the flow of money away from emerging markets. That has left some Asian central banks in a bind: Raise interest rates to defend their currency and shore up demand for local bonds, at the cost of economic growth, or try to shield economies already under pressure in other ways.

近期美国债券市场的走势加剧了这种压力。30年期美国国债收益率攀升至5%以上，创下20年来的新高，这推高了美元，并加速了资金流出新兴市场。这让一些亚洲央行陷入了进退两难的境地：要么以牺牲经济增长为代价，提高利率，保卫本国货币，并提振对本土债券的需求，要么尝试以其他方式保护已经承受压力的经济体。

Indonesia’s central bank responded to this dilemma on Wednesday by delivering its first interest rate increase in more than two years, surprising analysts who had not expected the half-point increase. Bank Indonesia’s governor, Perry Warjiyo, said the move was aimed at stabilizing the rupiah and fighting inflation.

印度尼西亚央行周三对这一困境作出了回应，宣布了两年多来的首次加息，这让此前未料到会加息0.5个百分点的分析师们感到意外。印尼央行行长佩里·瓦吉约表示，此举旨在稳定印尼盾并对抗通胀。

The rupiah has continued to hit new lows, nearing 18,000 to the dollar, despite repeated interventions by the central bank to put a floor under the currency. At a parliamentary hearing this week, Mr. Warjiyo said the central bank had a “more than adequate” stockpile of foreign exchange reserves despite having “increased the dosage” of currency interventions.

尽管央行一再进行干预，以图支撑汇率，但印尼盾仍继续创下新低，逼近18000印尼盾兑一美元。在本周的一次议会听证会上，瓦吉约表示，尽管“加大了”货币干预的“剂量”，但央行的外汇储备仍“绰绰有余”。

“This is not business as usual,” he said. “We are going all out.”

 “这不是平时的常规操作，”他说。“我们正在全力以赴。”

Asia’s biggest economies are also feeling the squeeze. Consider Japan.

亚洲最大的几个经济体也感受到了压力。例如日本。

Tokyo stepped in at least twice last month to bolster the falling yen against the dollar, spending what analysts estimate was $63 billion to prop up the currency. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top government official overseeing currency policy, has signaled that more interventions could follow, with officials appearing to draw a line at around 160 yen to the dollar, close to 38-year lows.

东京上月至少两次出手干预，以提振对美元下跌的日元，据分析师估计，为此耗资630亿美元。日本负责外汇政策的最高政府官员三村淳已暗示可能会有更多干预措施跟进，官员们似乎将一美元兑160日元左右作为底线，这已接近38年来的低点。

But the boost proved fleeting. Two weeks after a brief rally, the yen retreated again, surrendering about half its gains.

但事实证明，这种提振是短暂的。在短暂回升两周后，日元再次走软，回吐了大约一半的涨幅。

“Intervention often serves to buy time,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note, noting that Japan had successfully fortified the yen in 2024 with an intervention. This time around, “we are skeptical the same will occur as soon,” they wrote, predicting more depreciation for the yen.

“干预往往是为了争取时间，”高盛的分析师在一份研究报告中写道。他们指出，日本曾在2024年通过干预成功捍卫了日元。但他们写道，这一次，“我们怀疑同样的效果是否会这么快出现”，并预测日元将进一步贬值。

东京的一条商业街。亚洲主要经济体也面临着汇率波动的压力，日本已出手干预以支撑日元汇率。停泊在伊朗南部海岸霍尔木兹海峡的船只。这条至关重要的水道承载着大量输往亚洲的石油和天然气出口。

In India, the government took steps to ease pressure on the rupee, which has lost more than 6 percent against the dollar this year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on Indians to perform an act of “patriotism” by spending less on gasoline, diesel and imported goods, which would stem the flow of rupees exchanged into dollars.

在印度，政府采取措缓解轻卢比面临的压力，今年卢比兑美元已贬值超过6%。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁印度民众履行一项“爱国主义”行动，减少在汽油、柴油和进口商品上的支出，以此来遏制卢比兑换成美元的资金流出。

Mr. Modi has also implored Indians to adopt austerity measures to curb demand for imported fuel, including canceling nonessential overseas travel, working from home and cutting back on cooking gas use. The Indian government has also more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver to deter people from buying the precious metals abroad.

莫迪还敦促印度人采取紧缩措施以抑制对进口燃料的需求，包括取消非必要的海外旅游、居家办公以及减少烹饪用气。印度政府还将黄金和白银的进口关税提高了一倍以上，以阻止人们在国外购买这些贵金属。

“In the current situation, we must place great emphasis on saving foreign exchange,” Mr. Modi said at a political rally this month.

“在当前形势下，我们必须高度重视节约外汇，”莫迪本月在一次政治集会上表示。

The rupee’s weakness has been compounded by foreign investors pulling money out of India and shifting it into the U.S. dollar or markets abroad that are rising because of enthusiasm for artificial intelligence companies. As a result, the money flowing into the country is slowing just as rising energy prices push up import costs.

外国投资者将资金撤出印度，转投美元或因人工智能热潮而上涨的海外市场，这让卢比的疲软雪上加霜。结果，就在能源价格上涨推高进口成本之际，流入该国的资金正在放缓。

Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Wealth Advisors in Mumbai, said the popular trade for foreigners is: “Sell India, buy U.S. and Taiwan.”

孟买ASK财富顾问公司的首席投资官索姆纳特·慕克吉表示，外国投资者的热门交易是：“卖出印度，买入美国和台湾。”

Indonesia and the Philippines are facing a similar pinch, with foreign investors unwinding their positions in the region as import bills have gotten more expensive.

印度尼西亚和菲律宾也面临着类似的窘境，随着进口开支变得更加高昂，外国投资者正削减在该地区的持仓。

ANZ, the Australian bank group, said it “will become increasingly difficult to sustain” the level of intervention carried out by India, Indonesia and the Philippines.

澳大利亚银行集团澳新银行表示，印度、印尼和菲律宾所进行的干预力度将“变得越来越难以维持”。

Indonesia’s and the Philippines’ foreign exchange reserves have each dropped about $8 billion since the beginning of the war in Iran, a 5 percent decline for Indonesia and a 7 percent drop for the Philippines. India’s foreign exchange reserves tumbled by nearly 4 percent, or about $27 billion, as of early May.

自伊朗冲突爆发以来，印度尼西亚和菲律宾的外汇储备已各自减少了约80亿美元，其中印尼下降了5%，菲律宾下降了7%。截至5月初，印度的外汇储备缩水了近4%，即减少了约270亿美元。

Short-term relief for currencies in the region rests on a single development, economists said.

经济学家表示，该地区货币能否获得短期缓解，完全取决于一个关键因素。

“We need to see the real end of the war in Iran to see these currencies starting to move up,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French financial firm.

“我们需要看到伊朗战争真正结束，才能看到这些货币开始回升，”法国金融公司法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚·埃雷罗表示。

But the energy shock is likely to leave deeper scars, said Mr. Rehman, the financial markets analyst. After the 1997 financial crisis, Asia built up larger reserves, adopted flexible exchange rates and strengthened its institutions to better withstand future shocks. The war in the Middle East, he said, has exposed a different kind of vulnerability.

但金融市场分析师雷赫曼表示，能源冲击可能会留下更深的伤疤。在1997年金融危机之后，亚洲积累了更多的储备，采用了弹性汇率制，并强化了其体制，以便更好地抵御未来的冲击。然而他说，中东的这场战争暴露了一种不同类型的脆弱性。、

The question now is whether Asia can reduce its dependence on energy from the Middle East and the U.S. dollar, Mr. Rehman said.

雷赫曼说，现在的关键问题在于，亚洲能否减少对中东能源以及美元的依赖。

“This crisis did not create that question,” he said. “It simply made ignoring it impossible.”

“这场危机并非制造了这个问题，”他说。“它只是让人再也无法对此视而不见。”

The temporary agreement that the Trump administration announced with Iran this weekend isn’t a peace deal. It isn’t a nuclear deal. It isn’t a missile deal.

特朗普政府本周末宣布与伊朗达成的临时协议并非和平协议。它也不是核协议，更不是导弹协议。

Those may yet come — perhaps in a few months, though a senior United States official said there was no agreed time limit for nuclear talks, or perhaps far longer if the history of negotiations with Iran holds. But for now, Mr. Trump has emerged with an arrangement that could extend a cease-fire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, relieving the greatest energy disruption in modern times.

这些协议或许终将到来——也许是数月之内，尽管一位美国高级官员表示核谈判并无商定的时间期限；如果参考美伊历史上的谈判经验，甚至可能需要更长时间。但就目前而言，特朗普得到的是一项有望延长停火并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的安排，从而缓解现代史上最严重的能源危机。

The best news from this at-the-brink negotiation between Washington and Tehran, mediated by a hard-line Pakistani general who a few years ago was on an American sanctions list, is that a conflict that easily could have spun further out of control appears to be de-escalating. Assuming both President Trump and Iran’s supreme leader, in hiding to avoid assassination attempts, approve the final wording, the choke point through which a quarter of the world’s oil passes should reopen.

华盛顿与德黑兰之间这场处于危局边缘的谈判由一位巴基斯坦强硬派将军居中斡旋，几年前此人还在美国制裁名单上。最好的消息是，一场本可能彻底失控的冲突似乎正在降级。假设特朗普总统和因躲避暗杀而藏起来的伊朗最高领袖都批准了最终文本，那么全球四分之一石油运输所经的咽喉要道有望重新开放。

That is no small thing at a time when Republicans feared they would be headed into the November midterm elections with gasoline hovering around $4.50 a gallon and a president pursuing a war most Americans tell pollsters they oppose. For the Iranians, the opening comes just as their battered economy appeared about to crack, from the loss of most of their oil revenue.

共和党人原本担心，在11月中期选举来临前美国汽油价格可能飙升至每加仑4.5美元，而总统却在推进一场大多数美国民调受访者都反对的战争，此时达成协议非同小可。对伊朗而言，海峡重开也来得正是时候——饱受创伤的伊朗经济因大部分石油收入蒸发已濒临崩溃。

But for a president who had declared only 11 weeks ago that “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” the agreement he announced this weekend was far short of that. And his tone was markedly different.

但对于仅仅11周前还宣称“除了无条件投降之外，不会与伊朗达成任何协议”的特朗普来说，这个周末宣布的协议显然远没有达到那个目标。而且，他的语气也明显不同了。

“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” he wrote on social media.

特朗普在社交媒体上写道：“谈判正以有序且建设性的方式推进。我已通知我的代表们不要急于达成协议，因为时间在我们这边。”

Until the supreme leader and other Iranian officials certify the understanding “the Blockade will remain in full force and effect,” he wrote.

他还表示，在伊朗最高领袖和其他官员正式确认这项共识之前：“封锁将继续全面有效。”

He added: “There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one.”

随后又补充说：“不能出任何差错！我们与伊朗的关系正变得更加专业且富有成效。”

Yet Mr. Trump essentially gave into the Iranian demand to kick the hardest issues down the road — while apparently succeeding in forcing the Iranians to end, at least temporarily, their stranglehold on of the world’s most vital waterways.

但实质上，特朗普是屈从于伊朗的要求将最棘手的问题推后处理，尽管他似乎成功迫使伊朗至少暂时结束了对这条世界最重要水道的扼制。

In the end, each side had little choice but to give ground. They chose the least-bad of what each saw as bad options. But all that does is begin to restore the status quo to roughly where it was on Feb. 28, when Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel launched a war to finally bring Iran’s nuclear and missile programs to an end.

最终，双方几乎别无选择，只能让步。他们都选择了各自眼中最不坏的选项。但这一切不过是让局面大致回到2月28日的状态——那天特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发动了一场旨在彻底终结伊朗核计划与导弹计划的战争。

So far, they have failed to achieve those goals: Iran is still in possession of more than 11 tons of nuclear fuel, including 970 pounds that is close to bomb grade — though it is buried under rubble, deep underground. An early plan to essentially stage a coup, overthrowing the government, placing a former Iranian hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, into power, never materialized.

到目前为止，他们并未实现这些目标。伊朗依然拥有超过11吨核燃料，其中约440公斤的浓缩铀丰度接近武器级——尽管它们如今被埋在地下深处的废墟之下。而一个早期设想——说白了就是发动政变推翻现政府，扶植伊朗前强硬派总统艾哈迈迪-内贾德上台——也从未实现。

If the strait does reopen, Mr. Trump’s aides say they are planning to enter a second phase to get back to a serious negotiation with the Iranians on the issues that triggered the war. A senior administration official, who declined to be named, told reporters on Sunday that the Iranians had already generally agreed to turn over their 60-percent enriched uranium — the stockpile that could be converted to a dozen or so bombs in relatively short order.

特朗普的幕僚表示，若海峡确实重新开放，他们计划进入第二阶段，也就是与伊朗就引发这场战争的核心议题展开实质性谈判。一位不愿具名的美国政府高级官员周日向记者透露，伊朗已大体同意交出其60%浓缩铀库存——这批铀在相对较短的时间内即可转化为十余枚核弹。

But the Iranians have said nothing about surrendering that fuel, which along with its power to shut off traffic in the strait is their best leverage. The U.S. official also conceded the exact mechanism by which Iran would dispose of their highly enriched uranium remains unresolved as does whether Iran, at the end of the negotiation, will ship out all of the additional uranium in its possession, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

但伊朗方面对交出这些核燃料只字未提——这些燃料连同封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力正是它目前最大的谈判筹码。这名美国官员也承认，伊朗将如何处置其高浓缩铀的具体机制仍未确定。谈判结束后伊朗是否会将手中全部额外浓缩铀运出该国也仍无定论，国际原子能机构确认伊朗目前持有这些浓缩铀。

The United States also said the Iranians had agreed, verbally, to some kind of suspension of enrichment of new nuclear fuel. But Mr. Trump himself told reporters nine days ago on Air Force One that Tehran’s leaders had backed away from a commitment to suspend that activity for 20 years, and it is unclear where they are on the issue now.

美国还表示，伊朗已经口头同意暂停新的浓缩活动。但九天前，特朗普本人在“空军一号”上却告诉记者，德黑兰领导层已经放弃了此前“暂停20年浓缩活动”的承诺，目前双方在该问题上的各自立场尚不明朗。

And Iran has so far refused to even discuss limits on the size and range of their missiles which the United States had said it would insist upon. That is a critical issue to the Israelis, who are within reach of many of Iran’s ballistic missiles.

此外，伊朗迄今拒绝就限制其导弹规模和射程展开任何讨论，美国此前已明确表示将坚持这一要求。这对以色列而言是个关键问题，因为它处于伊朗许多弹道导弹的射程之内。

Despite the confidence from the United States that all those issues would be resolved, it seemed possible that the negotiations and fragile cease-fire could collapse at any point. The U.S. official briefing reporters on Sunday repeatedly acknowledged they could not predict what Iran would ultimately agree to, or even if the supreme leader would formally sign off.

尽管美国方面对最终解决这些问题表现得相当自信，但谈判与脆弱的停火随时可能破裂。周日向记者介绍情况的美国官员多次承认，他们无法预测伊朗最终会接受什么条件，甚至无法确定最高领袖是否会正式批准协议。

But the official said the reopening of the strait, which would not include any Iranian tolls, would remove the economic pressure, reassure the markets and create space to address the nuclear issues. The official did not say how the United States would deal with Iran’s claim over the past three months that it now has sovereignty over the strait, which had been traversed as international waters.

但这名官员表示，重新开放海峡（伊朗不会收取任何通行费）将消除经济压力、安抚市场，并为处理核问题创造空间。但该官员并未说明，美国将如何处理伊朗过去三个月来提出的主张——即伊朗如今对这个原本被视为国际水域的海峡拥有主权。

But the official did say that the agreement with the Trump administration amounted to a “walk-back” by the Iranians, because they will not be charging tolls.

不过他强调，与特朗普政府达成的协议实际上意味着伊朗“退让了”，因为他们将不再收取通行费。

Mr. Trump only added to the doubts on Sunday afternoon, when he declared on social media that “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama,” in 2015, which curtailed Iran’s nuclear activity, but did not eliminate it.

周日下午，特朗普本人又进一步加深了外界疑虑。他在社交媒体上写道：“如果我与伊朗达成协议，那将会是一份好的、合适的协议，不会像巴拉克·奥巴马2015年的那个协议那样。”奥巴马当年的协议限制了伊朗的核活动，但并未彻底消除。

“Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet,” he acknowledged. “So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”

“我们的协议与之截然相反，但没人见过，也没人知道内容。它甚至还没有完全谈成，”他坦承。 “所以别听那些失败者的话，他们对自己一无所知的事情说三道四。”

Among the “losers" were prominent members of Mr. Trump’s own party. Republican Iran hawks said he had folded to pressure, and failed to finish the job. Among the harshest critics was Senator Roger Wicker, Republican of Mississippi and chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who had warned that “everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”

这些“失败者”中不乏特朗普本党的重量级人物。共和党内的对伊强硬派指责他向压力低头，未竟全功。其中态度最严厉的当属密西西比州共和党参议员、参议院军事委员会主席罗杰·威克，他曾警告称，“史诗之怒行动取得的一切成果都可能化为乌有！”

Longtime negotiators who had opposed the attacks also had their doubts.

长期参与中东谈判且原本就反对此次军事打击行动的专家同样持怀疑态度。

“This is what happens when a poorly conceived war of choice turns into a highly flawed ‘peace’ of necessity,” Aaron David Miller, a former Mideast negotiator, now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Sunday.

“这就是一场构思拙劣的‘选择性战争’演变成充满严重缺陷的‘被迫和平’所带来的结果，”前中东谈判代表、现任职于卡内基国际和平基金会的亚伦·戴维·米勒周日表示。

“Original, unrealizable war aims abandoned,” he said, “and now little leverage to secure what really matters — restraining Iran’s nuclear capacity and permanently opened straits.”

“最初那些不切实际的战争目标被抛弃，”他说，“而现在几乎没有筹码来争取真正重要的东西——限制伊朗的核能力，以及永久开放海峡。”

Until a few days ago, the Trump administration was insisting it would not enter into any accord that did not deal with the hardest issue upfront: the nuclear program. But administration officials relented — in part because they needed to get the strait open and in part because they have come to recognize the complexity of negotiating on Iran’s vast nuclear complex, a task that took the Obama administration nearly two years and resulted in a 160-page agreement.

就在几天前，特朗普政府还坚称，不会签署任何不先解决核计划这个最棘手问题的协议。但政府官员最终让步了——部分原因在于他们需要让海峡开放，部分原因在于他们逐渐认识到与伊朗就其庞大的核设施进行谈判的复杂性——这项任务曾耗费奥巴马政府近两年时间，最终形成一份长达160页的协议。

“You can’t do a nuclear thing in 72 hours on the back of a napkin,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview in New Delhi, where he was on a diplomatic mission. “The straits have to be immediately reopened, and then we will enter, under agreed-to parameters, into very serious talks about enrichment, about the highly enriched uranium and about their pledge to never have nuclear weapons.”

“你不可能在72小时内、在餐巾纸反面写写画画就搞定核问题，”正在新德里进行外事访问的国务卿鲁比奥在接受采访时说。“海峡必须立即重新开放，然后我们将在商定的框架内，就浓缩问题、高浓缩铀问题以及伊朗永不拥有核武器的承诺，展开极为严肃的谈判。”

When pressed on why Mr. Trump appeared to change course this time, the U.S. official said Iran was making significant accommodations, but the toughest decisions still lay ahead.

当记者追问为何特朗普这次似乎改变立场时，那名美国官员表示，伊朗已经作出了相当大的让步，但真正艰难的决定还在后面。

After years of driving a Mercedes-Benz and a BMW, Li Maozai made a choice that surprised even himself: He bought a Chinese luxury car.

开了多年的梅赛德斯-奔驰和宝马之后，李茂载（音）做了一个连他自己都感到惊讶的选择：他买了一辆中国国产豪华汽车。

Mr. Li, a partner at a law firm in the southern Chinese city of Nanchang, chose the Maextro S800, an 18-foot sedan built by Huawei and JAC Motors, for its sleek lines, elegant design and high-tech features that his German cars couldn’t match. At $140,000, it wasn’t cheap, but it was much less expensive than European luxury vehicles.

李茂载是中国南方城市南昌一家律师事务所的合伙人，他选择了尊界S800。这是一款由华为和江淮汽车联合打造的轿车，长约5.5米。他看中这款车流畅的线条、优雅的设计以及他的德国车无法比拟的高科技配置。虽然100万元左右的售价并不便宜，但比起欧洲豪车要便宜得多。

“This car changed our old belief that only BMW, Benz and Audi are luxury cars,” Mr. Li said in an interview.

“这辆车改变了我们过去认为只有宝马、奔驰和奥迪才是豪华车的旧观念，”李茂载在接受采访时说道。

Powered by devotees like Mr. Li, the Maextro has rapidly become China’s best-selling luxury car, outpacing Western rivals. Huawei said one out of every three luxury cars sold in China in April was a Maextro. It has come to embody the supercharged rise of Chinese brands across luxury retail — from automobiles to personal goods and hospitality — steadily squeezing out once-dominant European labels.

在李茂载这样忠实拥趸的推动下，尊界迅速成为中国最畅销的豪华汽车，超越了西方竞争对手。华为表示，今年4月，中国售出的豪华汽车中每三辆就有一辆是尊界。它已成为中国品牌在整个奢侈品零售领域——从汽车到个人用品再到酒店业——超高速崛起的缩影，它们正稳步挤压曾经占据主导地位的欧洲品牌。

Even as the world’s second-largest economy contends with a property crisis and sluggish consumer spending, Chinese shoppers are flocking to Made-in-China luxury brands, drawn by more reasonable prices, cutting-edge technology and a cultural sensibility finely tuned to local tastes. The shifting sensibilities have unfolded alongside a rising nationalism and a deepening pride in the country’s economic ascent in recent decades.

尽管作为世界第二大经济体的中国正在应对房地产危机和消费支出疲软，中国消费者仍纷纷涌向中国制造的奢侈品牌，吸引他们的是更合理的价格、尖端的技术以及高度契合本土品味的文化敏锐度。这种观念的转变伴随着日益高涨的民族主义情绪，以及对国家近几十年来经济腾飞日益深厚的自豪感。

北京的老铺黄金门店，其产品融入了故宫的元素。

Building on Maextro’s success, Huawei is preparing to release an even pricier model next month, starting at $220,000. Laopu Gold, a jewelry brand that incorporates motifs from the Forbidden City and imperial craftsmanship in its designs, tripled its revenue last year. And domestic leather handbag labels like Songmont and Truuzen are carving out a foothold as accessible luxury options.

在尊界取得成功的基础上，华为正准备在下个月发布一款更昂贵的车型，起步价为150万元。珠宝品牌老铺黄金在设计中融入紫禁城元素和宫廷工艺，去年的营收增长了两倍。山下有松和裘真等本土真皮手袋品牌正作为正作为平价奢品之选在市场上站稳脚跟。

As Chinese consumers have turned toward homegrown brands, century-old international luxury powerhouses have struggled. Richemont, the parent company of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, reported a 23 percent sales decline in China last year. Porsche said it would close nearly half of its dealerships in the country by the end of the year.

随着中国消费者转向本土品牌，拥有百年历史的国际奢侈品巨头正陷入挣扎。卡地亚和梵克雅宝的母公司历峰集团报告称，去年其在中国的销售额下降了23%。保时捷表示，到今年年底，将关闭其在中国的近一半经销商门店。

“For decades, Western luxury brands had held the narrative power in the high-end consumer market,” said David He, a managing partner at BA Capital, a venture capital firm that invests in retail brands. “Today, Chinese consumers are no longer looking up to Western culture, but are beginning to look back at ourselves.”

“几十年来，西方奢侈品牌一直掌握着高端消费市场的话语权，”投资零售品牌的风险投资公司黑蚁资本的管理合伙人何愚表示。“如今，中国消费者不再仰视西方文化，而是开始审视我们自己。”

Mr. Li, the Maextro owner, feels little nostalgia for the German luxury cars he used to drive.

尊界车主李茂载对他曾经开过的德国豪华车几乎没有什么怀旧之情。

He waxed poetic about the features of his new car that his old cars never offered: doors that open and close with a wave of his hand, a storage cabinet that warms his tea and his favorite feature of all, Huawei’s self-driving system that pilots itself on highway trips.

他津津乐道地赞美新车上那些旧车从未有过的功能：挥挥手就能开关的车门，能为他保温茶水的储物柜，以及他最喜欢的功能——能在高速公路上自动驾驶的华为智驾系统。

There is so much excitement about the brand that Mr. Li organized activities for the Maextro owners’ association in his home province, Jiangxi, alongside fellow business owners and professionals.

由于对这个品牌充满热情，李茂载与一些企业主和专业人士同行一起，在家乡江西省为尊界车友会组织了各种活动。

Laopu Gold, the jewelry company founded in 2009, has also quickly established itself as a force to be taken seriously in the luxury space. By reviving heritage gold techniques that emphasize traditional craftsmanship with prices ranging from $3,000 to millions of dollars, Laopu generates roughly twice the per-store revenue of Cartier, according to an HSBC research report.

成立于2009年的珠宝公司老铺黄金也迅速确立了自己在奢侈品领域不容小觑的地位。汇丰银行的一份研究报告显示，通过复兴强调传统工艺的古法黄金技艺，推出价格从2万元到成百上千万元的产品，老铺黄金的单店收入大约是卡地亚的两倍。

Mr. He, the venture capitalist who invested in Laopu Gold in 2023, said the company’s ascent, driven in part by the surge in gold prices, had been propelled by a younger generation willing to pay for fine traditional craftsmanship and to “wear jewelry with symbols of Eastern aesthetics.”

在2023年投资了老铺黄金的风险投资人何愚表示，该公司的崛起在一定程度上得益于金价的飙升，但推动力也来自那些愿意为精湛传统工艺买单、且喜欢“佩戴蕴含东方美学符号珠宝”的年轻一代。

One popular gold pendant, for example, is made from delicate gold fibers in the shape of a bottle gourd — a symbol of good luck in Chinese culture.

例如，一款大受欢迎的黄金吊坠是由精致的金丝制成的葫芦形状，葫芦在中国文化中是好运的象征。

Perhaps the clearest sign that Laopu has arrived as a genuine challenger came from a competitor. Bernard Arnault, the chief executive of LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group, visited the storefronts of both Laopu Gold and Songmont, the handbag brand, in Shanghai last year.

也许，最能证明老铺黄金已跻身真正挑战者行列的迹象恰恰来自其竞争对手。全球最大奢侈品集团路威酩轩的首席执行官伯纳德·阿尔诺去年在上海考察了老铺黄金和手袋品牌山下有松的门店。

Mr. Arnault’s visit to Songmont was all the more striking given how the brand has marketed itself as an affordable luxury label, offering minimalist premium leather bags priced around $500. During last year’s Double Eleven shopping festival, which is like China’s equivalent of Black Friday, Songmont overtook Coach as the top-selling handbag brand on Tmall, the premium-tier channel of China’s biggest shopping platform, Taobao. Truuzen, another homegrown label, claimed the No. 3 spot.

考虑到山下有松一直将自己定位为一个价格可负担的轻奢品牌，提供售价约3500元的极简高端真皮包袋，阿尔诺对该品牌的造访就显得尤为引人注目。去年双十一购物节期间，在中国最大购物平台淘宝网的高端渠道天猫上，山下有松超越蔻驰成为最畅销的手袋品牌。另一个本土品牌裘真位居第三。

“We used to be puppets in the marketing of Western brands,” Cheng Baohua, the founder of Truuzen, said. He said the company’s sales doubled in 2025, but he thinks it is about more than value-minded shoppers in a cooling economy. “Over the years, more educated consumers have undergone an ideological awakening,” he said.

“我们过去一直是西方品牌营销的傀儡，”裘真创始人程宝华表示。他说公司在2025年的销售额翻了一番，但他认为，这不仅仅是因为在经济降温下消费者变得更注重性价比。“这些年来，受过更好教育的消费者经历了思想上的觉醒，”他说。

Mr. Cheng said he believed customers were drawn not only to the product’s quality but to the down-to-earth ethos the brand has promoted. Last year, rather than promoting exclusivity, Truuzen released a podcast and a documentary that spotlighted the lives of female workers in leather factories and celebrated the resilience of ordinary women.

程宝华表示，他相信顾客不仅被产品的质量所吸引，也看中品牌所推崇的脚踏实地的精神。去年，裘真没有去宣扬稀缺性，而是发布了一档播客和一部纪录片，将镜头对准了皮具工厂女工的生活，赞颂了普通女性的坚韧精神。

Linda Xie, a public relations specialist, said in an interview that she considered her Truuzen bag higher quality than her Furla and Coach handbags, which she said had discolored over time, and that she carried it to work every day. Another Truuzen bag owner said the leather rivaled that of her Hermès bag.

公关专员林达·谢（音）在接受采访时表示，她认为自己的裘真包质量比她那些芙拉和蔻驰手袋还好——她说，她的芙拉和蔻驰随着时间推移已经褪色，她每天都背着裘真去上班。另一位裘真包主则表示，这款包的皮革质量堪比她的爱马仕包。

A cultural pivot is also reshaping the hotel sector.

一种文化转向也正在重塑酒店业。

Rather than coveting stays at global chains with their one-size-fits-all service, 78 percent of high-net-worth Chinese individuals now prefer “unique cultural experiences” during hotel stays, according to a 2024 report by the Hurun Research Institute.

胡润研究院2024年的一份报告显示，78%的中国高净值人群现在在入住酒店时更青睐“独特的文化体验”，而不是热衷那些提供千篇一律服务的全球连锁酒店。

西藏的松赞酒店是富裕的中国城市居民的度假胜地。

One trendy escape for China’s wealthiest urban dwellers is Songtsam, a hotel chain founded in 2001 by a Tibetan documentary director. Its name means “paradise” in Tibetan, and the chain has 20 properties scattered across the tranquil Tibetan Plateau, pairing stunning views with personalized cultural tours that can run upward of $10,000 per person.

对于中国最富裕的城市居民而言，松赞是一个颇具魅力的度假选择。这家酒店集团由一位藏族纪录片导演于2001年创立。它的名字在藏语中意为“天堂”，该连锁品牌在宁静的青藏高原上拥有20处产业，将壮丽的景色与每人费用可高达7万元以上的个性化文化之旅结合在一起。

Frances Li, a marketing professional who has stayed at Songtsam properties three times, said these tours were a treat for her. Though the hotel’s facilities may be less lavish or uniform than those of international chains, the warm, detail-oriented service from local staff reaches a luxury standard of its own. “At the end of the trip, I felt healed,” Ms. Li said.

曾三次入住松赞酒店的营销专家弗朗西丝·李（音）表示，这些旅行对她来说是一种享受。虽然酒店的设施可能不如国际连锁酒店那般奢华或标准化，但当地员工热情且注重细节的服务达到了独具一格的奢华标准。“在旅行结束时，我感觉被治愈了，”弗朗西丝·李说。

Florence Li, Songtsam’s vice president of international sales and marketing (and no relation to Frances Li), said the company’s revenue rose 50 percent in 2025, propelled by surging demand for its tours. Domestic Chinese guests, who made up only a small fraction of the clientele in its early years, now constitute the majority, she added.

松赞负责国际销售和营销的副总裁弗洛伦斯·李（音，与弗朗西丝·李无亲属关系）表示，在对其旅游项目的激增需求推动下，公司在2025年的营收增长了50%。她还说，中国国内客人在公司成立初期只占客源的一小部分，但现在已经占据了绝大多数。

Ms. Li, who is also the hotel founder’s daughter, said its success reflected a broader shift among Chinese travelers, who were not only growing more confident in local brands but going out of their way to support them.

弗洛伦斯·李也是松赞创始人的女儿，她表示，这一成功反映了中国游客中正在发生的一种更广泛的转变，他们不仅对本土品牌越来越有信心，而且还会特意去支持它们。

“It’s not only happening in the hotel industry,” Ms. Li said. “Even for myself, I’m also very interested in looking into domestic handbags.”

“这不仅仅发生在酒店业，”弗洛伦斯·李说。“就拿我自己来说，我也非常愿意去了解国产手袋。”

Countries in Asia are reeling from a shortage of naphtha, a petroleum derivative used in a dizzying array of products, from household plastic wrap to industrial inks and medical devices.

亚洲各国正受到石脑油短缺的严重冲击。石脑油是一种石油衍生物，广泛应用于从家用塑料包装膜到工业油墨和医疗器械等种类繁多的产品中。

Early global alarm over the war in the Middle East centered on skyrocketing crude prices and gasoline spikes at the pump. But in East Asia, naphtha has emerged as the first major industrial disruption.

全球对中东战争的担忧最初主要集中在飙升的原油价格和加油站暴涨的汽油价格上。但在东亚，石脑油已成为第一个重大工业扰动的源头。

Japan and South Korea rely heavily on naphtha imported from Qatar and Kuwait, which are unable to export because of the more than two-month-long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Even the naphtha processed by Asian refineries often comes from crude shipped through the strait.

日本和韩国高度依赖从卡塔尔和科威特进口的石脑油，由于霍尔木兹海峡长达两个多月的封锁，这些国家目前无法进行出口。即使是亚洲炼油厂自身加工的石脑油，其原料原油也往往需要通过该海峡运输。

The economic fallout is already visible. In Japan, consumer goods companies unable to secure a stable supply of naphtha are stripping colors from food packaging to conserve ink. Both Japan and South Korea are scrambling to secure alternative supplies ahead of June, the point at which some industry experts warn shortages could begin to affect manufacturing more broadly.

经济负面影响已经显现。在日本，由于无法获得稳定的石脑油供应，一些消费品公司正在去除食品包装上的颜色以节省油墨。日本和韩国都在努力赶在6月之前落实替代供应，一些行业专家警告称，届时短缺可能会开始更广泛地影响制造业。

In East Asia, naphtha “is the principal mechanism through which supply shocks from the Middle East are already transmitting throughout the economy,” said Toby Whittington, a lead economist at the advisory firm Oxford Economics. “It feeds into everything,” he said. “That’s why this is beginning to hit economies so hard.”

咨询机构牛津经济研究院首席经济学家托比·惠廷顿表示，在东亚，石脑油“是中东供应冲击已经传导至整个经济体系的主要机制”。他说：“它延伸到了所有领域，这就是为什么它开始对经济造成如此沉重的打击。”

由于石脑油短缺，一些韩国公司无法生产用于制造塑料的化学品。

What is naphtha, and why is it in short supply?

什么是石脑油，为什么会出现供应短缺？

Naphtha is a petroleum product refined from crude oil, which is boiled and separated into distinct liquid layers. When blasted with extreme heat, naphtha breaks down into the foundational petrochemicals used in everything from plastics and synthetic rubbers to specialized inks and solvents.

石脑油是从原油中精炼出来的石油产品，原油经过加热沸腾后被分离成不同的液体层。当接触到极高温度时，石脑油会分解成基础石化原料，用于制造从塑料、合成橡胶到特种油墨和溶剂等所有物品。

Because it serves as the building block for so many chemical products, naphtha is often called the “flour” or “rice” of industry.

因为它是众多化学产品的基石，石脑油经常被称为工业的“面粉”或“大米”。

In Asia, naphtha supply chains have long been dependent on the Middle East. Japan imports most of its naphtha, and three-fourths of those imports originate from Middle Eastern producers. The naphtha that Japan produces domestically is derived from crude oil, more than 90 percent of which comes from the Middle East.

在亚洲，石脑油供应链长期依赖中东。日本大部分石脑油依赖进口，其中四分之三的进口来自中东生产商。日本国内生产的石脑油源自原油，而这些原油中超过90%来自中东。

That means that since the war choked off shipping lanes through the Persian Gulf and halted exports from crucial regional ports, more than 80 percent of Japan’s traditional supply lines for finished naphtha products have been abruptly severed. This leaves Japan and South Korea as the countries most exposed to the current supply disruptions, according to Oxford Economics.

这意味着，自从这场战争切断了通过波斯湾的航道并使该地区关键港口的出口停滞以来，日本传统石脑油制成品供应线的80%以上已被突然切断。牛津经济研究院表示，这使得日本和韩国成为当前供应中断中风险敞口最大的国家。

番茄酱生产商可果美等日本公司正因石脑油相关的油墨短缺减少包装上的彩色部分。

What problems are the shortages causing?

短缺正在引发哪些问题？

In Japan, companies are doing everything they can to ration supplies that they warn could dwindle in the coming months. Major food conglomerates, including the snack manufacturer Calbee and the ketchup maker Kagome, have begun redesigning their packaging to use less ink, resulting in new, noticeably muted designs.

在日本，企业正在竭尽所能控制消耗，他们警告称供应可能在未来几个月内枯竭。休闲食品制造商卡乐比和番茄酱生产商可果美等主要食品巨头已经开始重新设计包装以减少油墨使用，推出了色彩明显暗淡的新设计。

Some supermarkets are reporting shortages of everyday items like plastic wrap. Diaper producers are raising prices, and some construction projects are being delayed because builders cannot obtain housing equipment and construction materials, such as naphtha-derived resins.

一些超市报告称，保鲜膜等日常用品出现短缺。纸尿裤生产商正在提高价格。由于建筑商无法获得房屋设备以及由石脑油衍生树脂制成的建筑材料，一些建筑项目被迫延期。

In South Korea, petrochemical giants have been forced to slash operating rates. Unable to honor delivery commitments without naphtha feedstock, some chemical producers have declared force majeure on shipments to major automotive and electronics manufacturers. There have also been reports of consumers hoarding daily goods like plastic bags.

在韩国，石化巨头不得不削减开工率。由于没有石脑油原料无法交付订单，一些化学品生产商已向主要的汽车和电子产品制造商宣布出货遭遇不可抗力。还有报道称，消费者在囤积塑料袋等日常用品。

The deeper concern is that the shortages will bleed into more sensitive industries, such as medical gear. Unlike consumer packaging, medical-grade plastics cannot easily be substituted or scaled down. In Japan last month, several patient and physician groups submitted a joint request to the country’s health ministry, urging officials to identify which medical equipment supply lines are most at risk.

更深层次的担忧是，短缺会蔓延到医疗设备等更敏感的行业。与消费品包装不同，医疗级塑料无法轻易被替代或缩减规模。上个月在日本，几个患者和医生团体向该国厚生劳动省递交了一份联合请求，敦促官员明确哪些医疗设备供应链面临的风险最大。

What are countries doing to cope?

各国正在采取什么措施来应对？

Faced with growing anxiety, governments in Asia have sought to project stability while racing to line up alternative shipments from outside the Middle East.

面对日益加剧的焦虑，亚洲各国政府一方面试图展现稳定性，另一方面急于从中东以外地区开辟替代运输渠道。

South Korea has increased naphtha imports from Russia, while Japan has turned to the United States. At the same time, Japanese officials maintain that the necessary volumes have been secured and that reported supply disruptions merely reflect bottlenecks in the domestic distribution network.

韩国增加了从俄罗斯的石脑油进口，日本则转向美国。与此同时，日本官员坚称已落实了所需的进口量，媒体报道的供应中断仅反映了国内分销网络中的瓶颈。

But with a growing number of companies warning of impending shortages, the public appears unconvinced. In Japan, the approval rating for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet fell sharply in a recent Kyodo News poll, with 70 percent of respondents expressing concern about the impact of disrupted naphtha supplies on daily life.

但随着越来越多的公司警告即将出现短缺，公众似乎并不买账。在日本，共同社最近的一项民意调查显示，首相高市早苗内阁的支持率急剧下降，70%的受访者对石脑油供应中断对日常生活的影响表示担忧。

Haruhiko Sakaino, an adviser to Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, said there is little evidence so far that Japan has secured sufficient alternative supplies of naphtha amid an intensifying global bidding war. In April, Japan’s naphtha imports fell 79 percent from a year earlier, according to data released by the Japanese finance ministry on Thursday.

日本资源能源厅顾问境野春彦表示，在日益激烈的全球争夺中，目前几乎没有证据表明日本已经获得了足够的替代石脑油供应。日本财务省周四公布的数据显示，4月日本石脑油进口量同比下降了79%。

If current conditions persist, the number of companies entering the “red zone” of production disruptions is likely to spike by June, said Mr. Sakaino, a former oil-refining official. For now, he said, “I don’t see any other way to recover from Japan’s current situation except by securing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”

曾为炼油产业官员的境野春彦表示，如果现状持续下去，进入生产中断“红线区”的公司数量可能会在6月份激增。他说，就目前而言，“除了确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行外，我看不到有什么其他办法能让日本从目前的困境中恢复过来。”

A new federal policy that could require thousands of immigrants to return to their home countries before petitioning for green cards has applicants and immigration lawyers scrambling to to understand how the change will affect the path to permanent residence.

一项新的联邦政策或将要求成千上万移民先返回原籍国，才可递交绿卡申请。申请者与移民律师正急切地设法了解该变动会对永久居留申请流程造成何种影响。

On Friday, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the agency that oversees the green card system, said that only in “extraordinary circumstances” would people already in the United States be granted permanent residence. Otherwise, anyone seeking permanent U.S. residence would need to apply at an American consulate in their home country.

上周五，负责监管绿卡系统的美国公民及移民服务局表示，只有在“特殊情况下”，才会批准已身处美国境内的申请人获得永久居留权。除此之外，所有申请美国永久居留的人员均须在本国境内的美国领事馆提交申请。

Immigration lawyers and advocacy organizations said over the weekend that the change would reduce green card applications. In 2024, 1.4 million green cards were issued, and more than 800,000 of the recipients were already in the United States and had their immigration status modified as part of the process.

移民律师与维权机构周末称，此项变化将导致绿卡申请数量下降。2024年全美共发放140万张绿卡，其中超80万名获批者原本就在美国境内，并作为流程的一部分更改了其移民身份。

The change announced on Friday will be of particular concern to those who are married to U.S. citizens and seeking permanent residence, said Charles Kuck, an immigration lawyer and the former president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association. Such immigrants typically need to resolve their own immigration status before seeking a green card and they have generally been able sort out those issues while remaining in the United States.

美国移民律师协会前会长、移民律师查尔斯·库克表示，周五宣布的这一政策变动对那些与美国公民结婚并寻求永久居留权者来说影响尤为显著。此类移民通常需要在申请绿卡前解决自身的移民身份问题，而此前他们往往可以在居留美国的同时处理这些问题。

“This is simply an attempt to slow immigration,” Mr. Kuck said, “and make immigration so unpleasant that you go home.”

“这纯粹是为了拖延移民进程，”库克说，“并且让移民生活变得非常不愉快，以至于你不得不回国。”

Zach Kahler, a spokesman for the agency, said on Friday that the policy would remove a loophole where immigrants “slip into the shadows and remain in the U.S. illegally after being denied residency.”

移民局发言人扎克·卡勒周五表示，该政策旨在堵住漏洞，杜绝移民在“居留申请被拒后，隐入暗处并继续非法滞留美国”。

The memo notes that allowing immigrants to remain in the country while their green card applications are processed, “is a matter of discretion and administrative grace.”

该备忘录指出，允许申请人在绿卡审核期间留居美国“属于酌情处理和行政宽容的范畴”。

Efrén Olivares, the vice president of litigation and legal strategy at the National Immigration Law Center, said the new policy is about disrupting the green card process.

全美移民法律中心诉讼与法律战略副总裁埃弗伦·奥利瓦雷斯认为，新政策意在扰乱绿卡审批流程。

“It’s going to upend people’s lives in every sense of the word,” he said.

他表示：“这将在各个层面上打乱人们的生活。”

Most applicants have been allowed to remain in the United States with their families, which can include spouses and children who are U.S. citizens, while the green card process plays out. But now remaining in the country, may be the exception. In the past, Mr. Olivares said, someone may have been asked to apply from their home country in extraordinary circumstances, like if they had been deported several times or if they had a serious criminal history.

在绿卡申请流程进行期间，大多数申请人一直被允许与家人（包括身为美国公民的配偶和子女）一同留在美国，如今境内申请将成为特例。奥利瓦雷斯介绍，过去，只有在特殊情况下，例如申请人曾多次被驱逐出境或有严重犯罪记录时，才会被要求回国申请。

Approval for permanent residency through a U.S. citizen relative can vary depending on the relationship, Mr. Olivares said. For a spouse, the waiting period could be about a year; for siblings it can take upward of five years; and for parents, it could take as long as a decade.

奥利瓦雷斯表示，依托美国公民亲属关系申请永久居留的审批时间长度视亲属关系远近有所区别。配偶申请周期约一年，兄弟姐妹可能需要五年以上，父母申请可能长达十年。

Several immigrants, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, said on Saturday that they were confused and worried about what this change could mean for their own applications or those of their partners.

几位因担心遭到报复而要求匿名接受采访的移民周六表示，对于这一变化给自己或伴侣的申请前景带来的影响，他们感到迷茫焦虑。

After the announcement, an Albanian woman with a green card said she called her fiancé, who lives in Italy, trying to figure out what the change meant for them. The woman received a green card in 2022 through the lottery system, but her fiancé is expected to come to the United States this year on a work visa. She said they are now hiring an immigration lawyer to help figure out how to proceed.

政策公布后，一名2022年通过抽签获得绿卡的阿尔巴尼亚女性表示，她致电居住在意大利的未婚夫讨论这一变化对他们意味着什么。她的未婚夫原定今年持工作签证赴美，她表示，如今二人已聘请移民律师，协助制定后续方案。

The impact of this change may not be immediately visible, but will be strongly felt, said Karla Ostolaza, the managing director of the immigration practice at the Bronx Defenders, a public defense nonprofit.

非营利性公共辩护组织“布朗克斯辩护人”的移民业务主管卡拉·奥斯托拉扎表示，这一政策改变的影响不会立刻显现，但后续冲击会逐步凸显。

“They will stay in the shadows, remain without status and vulnerable to exploitation, and fence off any better opportunities to obtain status, even if they’re completely eligible,” she said.

“他们会隐匿生活、处于无合法身份状态，极易遭受剥削，即便自身完全符合条件，也会错失合法获取居留身份的机会，”她说。

Between the military honor guard, flag-waving schoolchildren and state banquet in Beijing last week, President Trump found time to lavish praise on Xi Jinping, the head of the Chinese Communist Party, calling him “a great leader” and “a friend.”

上周在北京，特朗普总统在检阅仪仗队、接受挥舞国旗的学童列队欢迎以及出席国宴等一系列活动的间隙，对中共领导人习近平不吝赞美之词，称其为“伟大领导人”和“朋友”。

The two men, Mr. Trump said, would “have a fantastic future together.”

特朗普表示，双方将“开创两国更加美好的未来”。

Mr. Trump flew home without stopping anywhere else in Asia. In interviews during and after the trip, he made no reassuring remarks on U.S. allies or partners in the region. He did say, however, that he would revisit arms sales to Taiwan, a comment that has stirred anxiety across Asia and prompted questions about U.S. security commitments.

访问结束后，特朗普直接飞回美国，未在亚洲其他国家停留。在访问期间和之后的采访中，他没有对美国在亚洲的盟友或伙伴发表任何安抚性言论。不过，他确实表示将重新考虑对台军售，这一言论在亚洲引发焦虑，令各方对美国的安全承诺产生质疑。

Indian leaders are among those with concerns.

感到忧虑的包括印度领导人。

Rather than getting a face-to-face meeting with Mr. Trump to hear about his vision for Asia, they are hosting Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his first trip to the world’s most populous nation. The four-day visit, with plans for closed-door diplomacy and jaunts to historical sites, began on Saturday with a quick stop at Mother Teresa’s charity in Kolkata and a meeting with Narendra Modi, the prime minister, in Delhi.

他们未能与特朗普进行面对面会晤以听取其亚洲愿景，而是接待了国务卿鲁比奥——这是他首次访问这个世界人口最多的国家。为期四天的访问于周六开始，包括闭门外交会谈和游览历史遗迹。他先在加尔各答的特蕾莎修女的慈善机构短暂停留，随后在新德里与印度总理莫迪举行了会面。

Mr. Rubio delivered an invitation on behalf of Mr. Trump for Mr. Modi to visit the White House, and the two officials spoke about deepening trade and defense cooperation, the State Department said in a summary of the meeting.

据国务院发布的会晤纪要，鲁比奥代表特朗普向莫迪发出了访问白宫的邀请，双方还就深化贸易与防务合作进行了磋商。

Mr. Rubio, who was in Beijing with Mr. Trump, will be expected to explain throughout his trip the administration’s Asia policy, given the American president’s clear desire to become a partner of Mr. Xi and to downplay security concerns over China.

鲁比奥此前曾陪同特朗普访华，鉴于美国总统明确希望与习近平建立伙伴关系，并淡化围绕中国在安全方面的担忧，鲁比奥在此次行程中预计将阐述美国政府的亚洲政策。

The secretary will meet not only with Indian officials, but also with the top diplomats from Japan and Australia, who are flying to Delhi for a conclave next Tuesday of a partnership known as the Quad.

鲁比奥不仅将与印度官员会晤，还将与来自日本和澳大利亚的最高外交官见面。后者将飞往德里，参加下周二的“四方安全对话”外长会议。

And Mr. Rubio is in India playing cleanup for Mr. Trump, who tried to cripple the country’s economy with high tariffs last summer after Mr. Modi, the prime minister, refused to nominate the American president for a Nobel Peace Prize. Mr. Trump had insisted that he played a crucial role in getting India and Pakistan to reach a cease-fire after each country had carried out deadly military strikes against the other.

鲁比奥此行还肩负为特朗普善后的任务。去年夏天，在莫迪拒绝提名特朗普为诺贝尔和平奖候选人后，特朗普试图以高关税打击印度经济。特朗普坚称，印巴之间在相互发动致命军事打击后之所以能够达成停火，自己发挥了关键作用。

Now there is a new strain on relations: Mr. Trump has praised Pakistani leaders for acting as mediators in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

如今，两国关系又添新的紧张因素：特朗普公开赞扬巴基斯坦领导人在美以对伊朗的战争中充当调停者。

Mr. Trump’s approach to India and China is the opposite of how the Biden administration and even the first Trump administration dealt with both countries.

特朗普对待印度和中国的方式与拜登政府乃至他自己的第一任期都截然相反。

Starting in the 2000s, Republican and Democratic policymakers pushed for closer ties with India, both to secure a partner to counterbalance against China and to wean Delhi off its reliance on Russia for security assistance.

自21世纪初以来，无论是共和党还是民主党的政策制定者都一直推动加强与印度的关系，这么做既是为了争取一个制衡中国的伙伴，也是为了帮助新德里摆脱对俄罗斯安全援助的依赖。

Mr. Trump has upended that. And one surprising consequence is that Indian officials are trying harder to improve relations with China given the sudden erosion of U.S. support.

特朗普现在颠覆了这一传统。一个意想不到的后果是，面对美国支持的骤减，印度官员正加大力度改善与中国的关系。

“There is deep concern on the current direction of India-U.S. relations and how ties have deteriorated,” said Ananth Krishnan, a Beijing resident and the author of a book about India and China.

“人们对当前印美关系的走向及双边关系的恶化程度深感担忧，”常驻北京、著有一部关于印中关系专著的学者阿南特·克里希南说。

“While I believe there is resilience to the deep linkages both sides have forged when you look at defense and technology, for example,” he said, “it’s still striking how the narrative has shifted from the framing of India as a key partner in the region.”

他还说：“虽然我认为双方在防务和科技等领域建立的深层联系仍具韧性，但如今关于印度是美国在本地区关键伙伴的叙事发生了如此巨大变化，仍然令人震惊。”

Indian officials noted Mr. Trump’s use of the term “G2” to refer to relations between the United States and China — “the two great countries” — in an interview he did in Beijing with Fox News.

印度官员注意到，特朗普在北京接受福克斯新闻采访时，使用了“G2”一词来指代美中关系——“两个伟大的国家”。

Indeed, Mr. Trump has long had an affinity for the leaders of China and Russia. He expresses admiration for authoritarian leaders, sometimes with an aesthetic component. He said in the Fox News interview that Mr. Xi, who is almost six feet tall, looked like he was out of “central casting. He added: “You couldn’t find a guy like him.”

事实上，特朗普长期以来一直对中国和俄罗斯领导人抱有某种亲近感。他经常表达对威权领导人的钦佩，有时甚至流露出一种形象上的欣赏。他在接受福克斯新闻采访时称，身高约一米八的习近平看起来像是“从电影选角公司直接走出来的人”。他还补充说：“你根本找不到像他这样的人。”

Mr. Modi presides over a democracy, even if many experts say he tries to rule in an authoritarian manner.

莫迪领导的是一个民主国家，尽管许多专家认为他试图以威权方式治理国家。

In Mr. Trump’s first term, the populist Indian prime minister seemed to win over the populist U.S. president. Mr. Modi in 2020 threw a campaign-style rally for Mr. Trump in a 110,000-seat cricket stadium in India, following a similar “Howdy, Modi!” mass party for the Indian leader in Houston. “From this day onward, India will always hold a special place in our hearts,” Mr. Trump said in Ahmedabad.

在特朗普的第一任期内，这位民粹主义的印度总理似乎赢得了这位民粹主义的美国总统的好感。2020年，莫迪在印度一个可容纳11万人的板球体育场为特朗普举办了一场竞选式的集会，此前美国在休斯顿为这位印度领导人举办过类似的“莫迪加油”大型聚会。特朗普在艾哈迈达巴德说：“从今天起，印度将永远在我们心中占据特殊的位置。”

But in a call last June, Mr. Modi insisted that India and Pakistan had resolved their crisis on their own, without help from Mr. Trump. The American president, who is obsessed with getting the Nobel Peace Prize, seethed, The New York Times reported.

然而，据《纽约时报》报道，去年6月的一次通话中，莫迪坚称印巴两国系自行化解了危机，并非特朗普的功劳。对诺贝尔和平奖充满执念的特朗普为此勃然大怒。

He soon imposed tariffs of 50 percent on Indian imports that U.S. companies had to pay. The two countries reached an interim trade agreement in February with onerous terms for India. Then the Supreme Court struck down Mr. Trump’s tariffs on more than 100 countries, though the president is still trying to impose such taxes through alternative means.

随后，他对印度商品征收50%的关税，美国企业不得不为此埋单。今年2月，两国达成了一项临时贸易协议，条款对印度十分苛刻。之后，最高法院推翻了特朗普对100多个国家征收的关税，但总统仍在寻求通过其他途径延续此类课税。

Now “Secretary Rubio’s gargantuan task is to lay the foundation for Trump to repair this relationship,” said Donald Lu, a retired career diplomat and an assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia in the Biden administration.

曾在拜登政府担任南亚与中亚事务助理国务卿的退休外交官唐纳德·卢表示，现在“鲁比奥国务卿的艰巨任务是为特朗普修复这段关系打下基础”。

Part of that mission falls to a close ally of Mr. Trump’s, Sergio Gor, the new ambassador to India.

这项使命的一部分落在了特朗普的挚友、新任驻印度大使塞尔吉奥·戈尔身上。

“Trump One was in a sense a continuation of the Bush and Obama pro-India pivot and the buildup of the Indo-Pacific partnership to contain China,” said Meenakshi Narula Ahamed, the author of a book on U.S.-India relations.

著有一本美印关系专著的米娜克希·纳鲁拉·艾哈迈德说：“第一任期的特朗普政府在某种程度上延续了布什和奥巴马时期的亲印战略转向，以及构建印太伙伴关系以制衡中国的既有路线。”

One problem now, she added, is that the current crop of Trump aides do not view India favorably.

她补充说，现在的一个问题是，特朗普目前的这批幕僚对印度并不抱有好感。

“There is no strategic thinking regarding alliances that I can see,” she said.

“我看不到任何关于双方联盟的战略性思考，”她说。

Given Mr. Trump’s unpredictability, many Indian officials say the country should adhere to its longstanding policy of “strategic autonomy” — keeping other world powers at arm’s length.

鉴于特朗普难以预测，许多印度官员表示，印度应继续坚持长期奉行的“战略自主”政策——即与其他世界大国均保持一定距离。

That position is “part of our history and our evolution,” and “it is something which is very deep,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s top diplomat, said at the Munich Security Conference in February.

印度外长苏杰生在今年2月的慕尼黑安全会议上表示，这一立场“是我们历史与发展进程的一部分”，并且“非常深厚”。

The next month, Christopher Landau, the deputy secretary of state, shocked some Indian officials by asserting at the Raisina Dialogue, an annual forum in Delhi, that the U.S. government could see India as an economic and strategic threat.

次月，副国务卿克里斯托弗·兰多在德里年度论坛瑞辛纳对话上断言，美国政府可能将印度视为经济与战略威胁，此言令一些印度官员感到震惊。

“India should understand that we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago in terms of saying, ‘We are going to let you develop all these markets,’ and then, the next thing we know, you are beating us in a lot of commercial things,” he said.

“印度应该明白，我们不会像20年前对中国那样，对印度犯同样的错误——说‘我们要让你开发所有这些市场’，然后转眼间，你在很多商业领域就把我们打败了，”他说。

Last month, Mr. Trump posted a transcript from a right-wing podcast in which the host, Michael Savage, referred to China and India as “hellhole” places and said recent immigrants from those countries had not “integrated” into the United States as “European Americans” had.

上个月，特朗普还在社交媒体转发了一档右翼播客节目的文字版。其中主持人迈克尔·萨维奇把中国和印度称为“地狱般”的地方，并表示来自这两个国家的新移民不像“欧裔美国人”那样“融入”美国社会。

Without naming Mr. Trump, the Indian government took the rare step of rebuking the White House on social media, calling the comments “obviously uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste.”

印度政府罕见地在社交媒体上公开回击白宫，虽未直接点名特朗普，但称这些言论“显然是无知的、不恰当的，而且品味低劣”。

Mr. Jaishankar and other Indian officials will try to gauge the Trump administration’s estimation of their country in talks with Mr. Rubio on Sunday. They also aim to better understand Mr. Trump’s intentions with Mr. Xi.

周日，苏杰生及其他印度官员将与鲁比奥举行会谈，试图判断特朗普政府究竟如何看待印度，同时也想进一步了解特朗普对习近平的真实意图。

“They will particularly seek to understand the significance of Washington agreeing to a ‘constructive relationship of strategic stability’ with Beijing,” said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who writes on India-China relations.

布鲁金斯学会专注印中关系研究的高级研究员坦维·马丹表示：“他们尤其想弄清楚，华盛顿同意与北京建立‘建设性战略稳定关系’，究竟意味着什么。”

The top diplomats from Japan and Australia, who plan to take part in the Quad meeting on Tuesday, have the same questions.

计划参加周二四方安全对话会议的日本和澳大利亚外长也有同样的疑问。

Mr. Trump’s moves against India have had a notable effect: Indian officials are trying to defuse tensions with China. Relations between the two nations imploded after their militaries clashed in 2020 along their Himalayan border. The countries fought a war over disputed mountainous territory in 1962.

特朗普对印度采取的一系列行动已产生一个显著效果：印度官员正试图缓和与中国的紧张关系。2020年两国军队在喜马拉雅山边境发生冲突后，双边关系急剧恶化。两国曾在1962年因争议山地领土打过一场战争。

“While I don’t think India-China ties will go back to where they were, because what we saw in 2020 was a deep rupture, it’s clear that both are looking to restore some ballast to the relationship,” said Mr. Krishnan, the author in Beijing.

“虽然我不认为印中关系能回到从前，因为2020年发生的事情造成了深刻裂痕，但很明显双方都在寻求为关系重新注入一些稳定性，”现居北京的作者克里希南说。

The two nations have recently eased travel restrictions between them, and India is working on possibly allowing more Chinese investment into some nonsensitive areas of the Indian economy.

两国近期相互放宽了签证限制，印度也在研究是否允许更多中国投资进入印度经济的一些非敏感领域。

If progress is made on the border issue, Mr. Krishnan said, “that could potentially raise the ceiling that currently limits the relationship.”

克里希南表示，如果在边界问题上取得进展，“这可能会提升目前限制两国关系的上限。”

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, called on Saturday for a redoubled rescue mission in northern China after a gas explosion in a mine there killed at least 82 people, the Chinese state news agency said, in what appeared to be one of the deadliest Chinese mining disasters in years.

据中国官方通讯社报道，在该国北方一座煤矿发生瓦斯爆炸、造成至少82人遇难后，最高领导人习近平周六作出指示，要求加大救援力度。此次事故似乎是近年来中国最严重的矿难之一。

Mr. Xi “stressed the need to make every effort to treat the injured, organize search and rescue operations scientifically and properly handle the aftermath,” the agency, Xinhua, reported. He also called for an investigation into the explosion, which happened Friday night, and emphasized the need to “hold those responsible to account, according to the law.”

新华社报道称，习近平强调“全力救治伤员，科学组织搜救，妥善做好善后处置工作”。他还要求查明这起于周五晚发生的爆炸事故的原因，并强调要“依法严肃追责”。

Mr. Xi’s decision to quickly and personally issue a statement was significant and may have indicated that Chinese officials expected the situation to worsen. The Chinese government often keeps back details of accidents while it gathers information and prepares to issue a response. But soon after Mr. Xi’s statement on Saturday, the official death count began to rise drastically, with new tolls announced every few minutes.

习近平迅速亲自作出指示，这一举动意义重大，或许表明中国官员预判情况将会进一步恶化。中国政府通常在收集信息、准备作出回应之前，会对事故详情有所保留。但就在习近平作出指示后不久，官方公布的死亡人数开始急剧上升，新的数字几乎每隔几分钟就更新一次。

However, the latest death toll of 82 people was a correction by officials to an earlier count of 90 reported by state media. The head of the county, speaking at a news conference late on Saturday, said the chaos of the scene and unclear numbers on the company’s work force led the government to get the initial toll wrong.

然而，最新公布的82人遇难是对此前官方媒体所报道的90人这一数字的修正。该县负责人在周六晚些时候的新闻发布会上表示，现场混乱，加上企业对作业人数统计不清，导致一开始通报的死亡人数有误。

Additionally, two people are missing, and 128 are hospitalized with injuries, the officials said at the conference.

官员在发布会上还表示，目前仍有两人下落不明，128人受伤住院治疗。

Xinhua initially reported eight deaths and said that more than 200 of the 247 workers who had been underground when the explosion occurred had been safely recovered.

新华社最初报道八人遇难，并称事故发生时有247名工人在井下，其中200余人已安全升井。

As of Saturday morning, the cause of the explosion was still unknown, according to CCTV, the Chinese state broadcaster. Xinhua reported that local authorities had been alerted on Friday night that an underground carbon monoxide sensor at the site, the Liushenyu coal mine in Shanxi Province, had set off an alarm, indicating that levels had exceeded safety limits.

据中国官方电视台中央电视台报道，截至周六上午，爆炸原因仍不清楚。新华社报道称，当地有关部门周五夜间接报，事故现场——山西留神峪煤矿——的地下一氧化碳传感器触发警报，显示浓度已超过安全限值。

Mayor Chen Xiangyang of Changzhi said at Saturday night’s news conference that a “preliminary assessment indicates that the coal mining company involved has committed serious violations.” He did not say what the violations were, adding, “the specific cause of the accident is under further investigation.”

长治市市长陈向阳在周六夜间的新闻发布会上表示，“初步判断，涉事煤矿企业有重大违法行为”，但未透露具体违规内容，并补充说：“事故具体原因正在进一步调查。”

Live coverage from CCTV on Saturday showed emergency personnel massed on site, pulling out stretchers from ambulances alongside what appeared to be workers pushing mine carts.

中央电视台周六的现场直播画面显示，大批救援人员集结现场，从救护车上抬出担架，旁边还有疑似矿工的人推着矿车。

The mine, operated by the Shanxi Tongzhou Coal Group, was listed in 2024 among 1,128 mines that had been cited for “severe safety hazards” by China’s National Mine Safety Administration. The Liushenyu coal mine was specifically cited for high gas levels.

该矿由山西通洲煤业集团运营，2024年曾被中国国家矿山安全监察局列入1128处“灾害严重”煤矿名单，留神峪煤矿被特别指出存在瓦斯浓度过高的问题。

“Provincial-level mine safety supervision departments must urge severely disaster-prone coal mines to implement measures for regional disaster management,” the National Mine Safety Administration said in a statement when it released the list.

国家矿山安全监察局在发布该名单时明确要求：“各省级矿山安全监管部门要督促灾害严重煤矿落实重大灾害区域治理。”

China has a long history of industrial disasters, though in the past 10 years, the government has tightened safety regulations and reduced the number of industrial and mine accidents.

中国一直以来工业灾难频繁发生，但在过去十年间，政府加强了安全监管，工业和矿山事故数量已有所下降。

The explosion in Shanxi appears to be among the deadliest in recent years, and comes only weeks after a fireworks factory blast killed 26 in Hunan Province. It seems to be the deadliest mining disaster since 2023, when 53 people were killed after an open pit coal mine collapsed in Inner Mongolia, a region of northern China.

山西这次爆炸事故似乎是近年来最严重的矿难之一，而就在几周前，湖南一起烟花厂爆炸事故造成26人遇难。这起事故可能是自2023年以来最严重的矿难，当时内蒙古一座露天煤矿坍塌，造成53人遇难。

In 2020, 16 people died of carbon monoxide poisoning after they were trapped in a coal mine in southwestern China.

2020年，中国西南部一座煤矿发生事故，16名被困矿工因一氧化碳中毒身亡。

Xia De-hong, who survived persecution and torture as an official in Mao Zedong’s China and was later the central figure in her daughter’s best-selling 1991 memoir, “Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China,” died on April 15 in Chengdu, China. She was 94.

夏德鸿曾是毛泽东时代的一名中国干部，经历迫害和酷刑后得以幸存。后来她成为其女1991年出版的畅销回忆录《鸿：三代中国女人的故事》(Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China)中的核心人物。她于4月15日在中国成都去世，享年94岁。

Ms. Xia’s death, in a hospital, was confirmed by her daughter Jung Chang.

夏德鸿在医院去世的消息由她的女儿张戎证实。

Ms. Chang’s memoir, which was banned in China, was a groundbreaking, intimate account of the country’s turbulent 20th century and the iron grip of Mao’s Communist Party, told through the lives of three generations of women: herself, her mother and her grandmother. An epic of imprisonment, suffering and family loyalty, it sold over 15 million copies in 40 languages.

张戎的回忆录在中国遭禁，这本书通过她自己、她母亲和她姥姥这三代女性的生活，对中国动荡的20世纪以及毛泽东领导的共产党实施的铁腕控制进行了开创性的、细致入微的描述。这部关于监禁、苦难和家族忠诚的史诗之作已被翻译成40种语言，销量超过1500万册。

The story of Ms. Chang’s stoic mother holding the family together while battling on behalf of her husband, a functionary who was tortured and imprisoned during Mao’s regime, was the focus of “Wild Swans,” which emerged out of hours of recordings that Ms. Chang made when Ms. Xia visited her in London in 1988.

张戎的母亲性格坚忍，在为她丈夫——一名在毛泽东时代遭受酷刑和监禁的干部——奔走抗争的同时，努力维持着整个家庭，这个故事是《鸿》一书的核心。这本书源于1988年夏德鸿在伦敦看望张戎时后者录制的长达数小时的录音。

Ms. Xia was inspired as a teenager to become an ardent Communist revolutionary because of the mistreatment of women in the Republic of China, as well as the corruption of the Kuomintang nationalists in power. (Her own mother had been forced into concubinage at 15 by a powerful warlord.)

由于目睹中华民国时期女性遭受的不公待遇以及执政的国民党民族主义者的腐败，还是个青少年的夏德鸿受到感召，成为热忱的共产主义革命者。（她自己的母亲15岁时被迫成为一名权势显赫的军阀的妾室。）

In 1947, in Ms. Xia’s home city of Jinzhou, the Communists were waging guerrilla war against the government. She joined the struggle by distributing pamphlets for Mao, rolling them up inside green peppers after they had been smuggled into the city in bundles of sorghum stalks.

1947年，在夏德鸿的家乡锦州，共产党人对政府发起游击战。她投身斗争，分发毛主席的传单，把传单藏进大捆的高粱秆里偷运进城，然后塞进大甜椒里。

Captured by the Kuomintang, she was forced to listen to “the screams of people being tortured in the rooms nearby,” her daughter later wrote. But that only stiffened her resolve.

在被国民党俘虏后，她被迫听着“隔壁刑讯室不停传出的惨叫声”，她的女儿后来写道。但这只是让她的意志更加坚定。

1949年，新婚的夏德鸿和丈夫张守愚身着共产党军装，踏上了前往四川的漫长旅程。

She married Chang Shou-yu, an up-and-coming Communist civil servant and acolyte of Mao, in 1949.

1949年，她嫁给了张守愚，他是一位前途无量的共产党干部，也是毛泽东的追随者。

It was then that disillusionment began to set in, according to her daughter. The newlyweds were ordered to travel a thousand miles to Sichuan, her husband’s home province. Because of Mr. Chang’s rank, he was allowed to ride in a jeep, but she had to walk, even though she was pregnant, and suffered a miscarriage as a result.

根据她女儿的记述，正是从那时起，幻灭感开始滋生。这对新婚夫妇奉命前往千里之外丈夫的家乡四川。由于张守愚的职级，他获准乘坐吉普车，她却只能步行，尽管当时她怀有身孕，并因此导致了流产。

“She was vomiting all the time,” her daughter wrote. “Could he not let her travel in his jeep occasionally? He said he could not, because it would be taken as favoritism since my mother was not entitled to the car.”

“她向父亲提出，要他偶尔让她搭吉普车，她说自己累得不得了，又经常呕吐，”她的女儿写道。“父亲说他不能这样做，按规定母亲没有资格乘车，坐他的车就是‘夫贵妻荣’。”

That was the first of many times that her husband would insist she bow to the rigid dictates of the party, despite the immense suffering it caused.

那是她丈夫第一次坚持要她屈从党的死板规定，在那之后还有很多次，这给她带来了巨大的痛苦。

When she was a party official in the mid-1950s, Ms. Xia was investigated for her “bourgeois” background and imprisoned for months. She received little support from Mr. Chang.

在20世纪50年代中期担任党内干部时，夏德鸿因其“资产阶级”背景而受到调查，并被监禁了几个月。她几乎没有得到张守愚的支持。

“As my mother was leaving for detention,” Ms. Chang wrote, “my father advised her: ‘Be completely honest with the party, and have complete trust in it. It will give you the right verdict.’ A wave of aversion swept over her.”

“母亲离家时，”张戎写道。“我父亲对她叮嘱道：对党要忠诚老实，相信党会作出正确的结论。我母亲顿觉一阵委屈。”

Upon her release in 1957, she told her husband, “You are a good Communist, but a rotten husband.” Mr. Chang could only nod in agreement.

1957年她获释后，她对丈夫说：“你是个好党员，不是个好丈夫。”张守愚只能点头表示同意。

He became one of the top officials in Sichuan, entitled to a life of privilege. But by the late 1960s, he had become outraged by the injustices of the Cultural Revolution, Mao’s blood-soaked purge, and was determined to register a formal complaint.

他成为了四川省的高级干部之一，享有特权生活。但到了20世纪60年代末，他对文化大革命（毛泽东发动的充满血腥的清洗运动）中的不公正感到愤慨，决心正式提出申诉。

Ms. Xia was in despair; she knew what became of families who spoke out. “Why do you want to be a moth that throws itself into the fire?” she asked.

夏德鸿陷入了绝望；她知道那些敢于发声的家庭的下场。“你这不是飞蛾扑火，自取灭亡吗？”她问。

Mr. Chang’s career was over, and both he and his wife were subjected to physical abuse and imprisoned. Ms. Xia’s position was lower profile; she was in charge of resolving personal problems, such as housing, transfers and pensions, for people in her district. But that did not save her from brutal treatment.

张守愚的政治生涯结束了，他和妻子不仅遭受身体虐待，还遭到监禁。夏德鸿的职位比较低调，负责解决她所在地区群众的个人问题，比如住房、调动和养老金。但这并未能让她逃脱残酷对待。

Ms. Xia was made to kneel on broken glass; paraded through the streets of Chengdu wearing a dunce’s cap and a heavy placard with her name crossed out; and forced to bow to jeering crowds.

夏德鸿被迫跪在碎玻璃上；戴着高帽，脖子上挂着写有她名字、上面还打了大叉的沉重牌子，在成都游街示众；并被迫向嘲弄她的人群鞠躬。

Still, she resisted pressure from the party to denounce her husband. And unlike many other women in her position, she refused to divorce him.

尽管如此，她还是顶住了党要求她批判丈夫的压力。而且与许多处境相同的女性不同，她拒绝与丈夫离婚。

Twice she journeyed to Beijing to seek his release, the second time securing a meeting with the prime minister, Zhou Enlai, who was considered a moderate. Ms. Xia was “one of the very few spouses of victims who had the courage to go and appeal in Peking,” her daughter wrote in “Wild Swans.”

她曾两次前往北京寻求让他获释，第二次更是争取到与被视为温和派的周恩来总理会面的机会。夏女士是“极少有妻子像母亲这样大胆来京替丈夫伸冤”，她的女儿在《鸿》中写道。

But Ms. Xia and her husband never criticized the Cultural Revolution in front of their children, checked by the party’s absolute power and the fear it inspired.

但是，夏德鸿和丈夫从未在孩子面前批评过文化大革命，党的绝对权力以及由此激发的恐惧限制了他们。

“My parents never said anything to me or my siblings,” Ms. Chang wrote. “The restraints which had kept them silent about politics before still prevented them from opening their minds to us.”

“这些事父母从没对我们孩子们提起过，”张戎写道。“他们从来就不和我们谈政治斗争，现在更不可能开口了。”

She was held at Xichiang prison camp from 1969 to 1971 as a “class enemy,” made to do heavy labor and endure denunciation meetings.

1969年至1971年，夏德鸿作为“阶级敌人”被关押在西昌的干校，被迫从事繁重的体力劳动，并忍受批斗会。

The camp, though less harsh than her husband’s, was a bitter experience. “She reflected with remorse on the pointlessness of her devotion,” her daughter wrote. “She found she missed her children with a pain which was almost unbearable.”

这个干校虽然条件比她丈夫所在的干校要宽松一些，但也是一段痛苦的经历。“现在我母亲悔恨地想着她的一片忠心似乎毫无意义，”她的女儿写道。“她以一种无法忍耐的心疼想念着孩子们。”

Xia De-hong was born on May 4, 1931, in Yixian, the daughter of Yang Yu-fang and Gen. Xue Zhi-heng, the inspector general of the metropolitan police in the nationalist government.

夏德鸿于1931年5月4日在义县出生，母亲名叫杨玉芳，父亲是北洋政府京师警察总监薛之珩将军。

When she was an infant, her mother fled the house of the general, who was dying, and returned to her parents, eventually marrying a rich Manchurian doctor, Xia Rui-tang.

在她还是婴儿的时候，她的母亲从病危将军的家中逃出来，回到自己父母身边，最终嫁给东北一位富有的医生夏瑞堂。

夏德鸿（左），照片中她还是个小女孩，站在母亲身旁，旁边是她的继父及其家中的两位亲属。

Ms. Xia grew up in Jinzhou, Manchuria, where she attended school before joining the Communist underground.

夏德鸿在东北锦州长大，在那里上学，后来加入了共产党地下组织。

In the 1950s, when she began to have doubts about the Communist Party, she considered abandoning it and pursuing her dream of studying medicine, her daughter said. But the idea terrified her husband, Ms. Chang said in an interview, because it would have meant disavowing the Communists.

据其女儿所述，20世纪50年代，她开始对共产党产生怀疑，曾经考虑脱离党，去追求自己学医的梦想，她的女儿说。但张戎在一次采访中表示，这个想法吓坏了她的丈夫，因为这意味着与共产党划清界限。

By the late 1950s, during the Mao-induced Great Famine that killed tens of millions, both of her parents had become “totally disillusioned,” Ms. Chang said, and “could no longer find excuses to forgive their party.”

张戎说，到了20世纪50年代末，在毛泽东引发的导致数千万人死亡的大饥荒期间，她的父母都“彻底幻灭”，并且“再也找不到任何借口来原谅他们的党”。

Mr. Chang died in 1975, broken by years of imprisonment and ill treatment. Ms. Xia retired from her government service, as deputy head of the People’s Congress of the Eastern District of Chengdu, in 1983.

张守愚于1975年去世，多年的监禁和虐待摧垮了他。夏德鸿于1983年从政府职务上退休，退休前担任成都市东城区人民代表大会副主任。

Besides Ms. Chang, Ms. Xia is survived by another daughter, Xiao-hong Chang; three sons, Jin-ming, Xiao-hei and Xiao-fang; and two grandchildren.

除了张戎，夏女士的遗属还包括另一个女儿张小鸿；三个儿子京明、小黑和小方；以及两个孙辈。

Jung Chang saw her mother for the last time in 2018. Ms. Chang’s criticism of the regime, in her memoir and a subsequent biography, made returning to China unthinkable. She told the BBC in a recent interview that she never knew whether her mother had read “Wild Swans.”

张戎最后一次见到母亲是在2018年。张女士在回忆录以及后来的一部传记中对政权的批评，使她返回中国变得不可想象。她前不久接受BBC采访时说，她一直不知道母亲是否读过《鸿》。

But the advice her mother gave her and her brother Xiao-hei, a journalist who also lives in London, was firm: “She only wanted us to write truthfully, and accurately.”

但母亲给她和同样居住在伦敦的记者弟弟小黑的忠告却十分坚定：“她只希望我们如实、准确地写作。”

In India, the mango is known as the “king of fruits.” The fruit, and its tree and leaves, are symbols of prosperity, good luck and love.

在印度，芒果被称为“水果之王”。这种水果及其树木和叶子都是繁荣、好运和爱情的象征。

There’s a lot to love nutritionally, too. Mangoes are rich in vitamin C and potassium. And they freeze well, making them a year-round smoothie staple.

营养方面，芒果也有很多让人喜爱的地方。芒果富含维生素C和钾。而且它们适合冷冻，可以作为一年四季制作奶昔的主打食材。

Here’s what to know about their health attributes, along with delicious recipes from New York Times Cooking.

以下是关于其健康属性须知的信息，以及来自《纽约时报》烹饪频道的美味食谱。

They’re high in sugar — but it’s not like eating a cookie.

它们含糖量很高，但跟曲奇仍然是两码事。

One half of a peeled mango contains about 23 grams of sugar, which is more than twice what you get in a typical store-bought chocolate chip cookie.

半个去皮芒果含有大约23克糖，是你在商店购买的普通巧克力碎饼干中所能摄入糖分的两倍多。

But the natural sugar in mangoes doesn’t spike your blood glucose the way the added sugar in cookies does, said Jessica Higgins, a dietitian in the Lifestyle Medicine program at NYC Health + Hospitals Woodhull. That’s because your body has to break down the beneficial fiber in a mango to access the fruit’s sugar. This takes time, which gives your body a chance to gradually process the glucose. In a cookie, she said, the refined sugar is immediately available, which is why it can cause a spike.

但纽约市健康与医院系统伍德霍尔医院生活方式医学项目的营养师杰西卡·希金斯说，芒果中的天然糖分不会像饼干中的添加糖那样让你的血糖飙升。这是因为你的身体必须分解芒果中有益的纤维才能吸收水果的糖分。这需要时间，给你的身体提供了一个逐渐处理葡萄糖的机会。她说，在曲奇中，精制糖是可以被立即吸收的，这就是它会引起血糖飙升的原因。

One half of a mango has around 10 percent of your daily fiber needs, said Stephanie Rogus, an assistant professor and extension nutrition specialist at Texas A&M University. Mangoes aren’t quite as high in fiber as fruits like apples or pears — in part because we typically don’t eat the fibrous mango skin — but they still cross the “good source of fiber” threshold, Dr. Rogus said.

德克萨斯农工大学助理教授、推广营养专家斯蒂芬妮·罗古斯说，半个芒果大约含有你每日所需纤维量的10%。芒果的纤维含量不像苹果或梨等水果那么高——部分原因是我们通常不吃纤维丰富的芒果皮——但它们仍然达到了“良好纤维来源”的标准，她说。

Beyond slowing down your digestion, the fiber in mangoes can help keep your blood cholesterol in check and support the good bacteria in your gut, said Maya Vadiveloo, a dietitian and associate professor of nutrition at the University of Rhode Island.

罗德岛大学营养学副教授、营养师玛雅·瓦迪维卢说，除了减缓你的消化速度，芒果中的纤维还可以帮助控制你的血胆固醇并支持肠道中的益生菌。

Their vitamin C levels are up there with citrus fruits.

它们的维生素C水平可以与柑橘类水果相媲美。

One half of a mango contains 61 milligrams of vitamin C, similar to what you’d get from one half of a navel orange or a grapefruit.

半个芒果含有61毫克维生素C，与你从半个脐橙或葡萄柚中摄入的量相当。

Beyond vitamin C’s well-known immune-boosting properties, it can also help your body absorb iron from plant-based foods, Dr. Vadiveloo said.

瓦迪维卢说，除了维生素C众所周知的免疫提升特性外，它还可以帮助你的身体从植物性食物中吸收铁质。

The iron in foods like leafy greens and beans isn’t as easily accessible as the iron you get from eating animal products, she said. Pairing these foods with vitamin C-rich foods like mango can help convert the iron into a more usable form.

她说，绿叶蔬菜和豆类等食物中的铁质不像吃动物产品时获得的铁质那样容易吸收。将这些食物与芒果等富含维生素C的食物搭配，可以帮助将铁质转化为更容易被利用的形式。

Their potassium could help lower your blood pressure.

它们含有的钾可能有助于降血压。

Bananas may be the most famous potassium-rich tropical fruit, but mangoes aren’t that far behind. One half of a mango contains 282 milligrams; a medium banana has 422.

香蕉可能是最著名的富含钾的热带水果，但芒果也并没有落后太多。半个芒果含有282毫克钾；一根中等大小的香蕉含有422毫克。

Potassium can help to counteract the heart disease risk that comes with consuming too much sodium, Ms. Higgins said. Excess sodium can cause your body to retain fluid, which can raise your blood pressure. Over time, high blood pressure can increase your risk for heart attacks and strokes. Potassium helps to balance your body’s fluid levels, she said, so it can help bring your blood pressure back down.

希金斯说，钾有助于抵消摄入过多钠带来的心脏病风险。过量的钠会导致你的身体滞留水分，从而升高你的血压。随着时间的推移，高血压会增加心梗和中风的风险。她说，钾有助于平衡身体的水分水平，因此它可以帮助把血压降下来。

What’s the best way to eat mango?

吃芒果最好的方法是什么？

Try it frozen.

尝试冷冻芒果。

If a ripe mango is nowhere to be found, Dr. Vadiveloo recommended buying frozen chunks. As long as the frozen kind doesn’t contain added sugar, it’s just as nutritious as fresh mango, she said.

如果找不到成熟的芒果，瓦迪维卢建议购买冷冻芒果块。她说，只要冷冻芒果不含添加糖，就和新鲜芒果一样有营养。

Don’t overdo it on the dried mango.

不要吃太多芒果干。

One-half cup of dried mango contains 255 calories and 53 grams of sugar — far more than the 50 calories and 11 grams of sugar you’d get from the same amount of fresh fruit.

半杯芒果干含有255卡路里热量和53克糖——远高于同等数量新鲜芒果所含的50卡路里热量和11克糖。

“When we take all the water out, we’re concentrating the sugars and the calorie-containing macronutrients,” Ms. Higgins said. “That’s a pretty big difference.”

“当我们脱掉水分时，实际上就是浓缩了糖分和含有卡路里的大量营养素，”希金斯女士说。“这是一个相当大的差异。”

To judge ripeness, use your thumb.

用拇指判断成熟度。

Ms. Higgins recommended using what she called the “press method” to select a perfectly ripe mango. When you gently press your thumb into the fruit, you should feel just a slight give.

希金斯女士建议使用她所谓的“按压法”来挑选完美成熟的芒果。当你用大拇指轻轻按压水果时，你应该能感觉到轻微的凹陷。

Here are some fresh ways to enjoy that perfect mango, from NYT Cooking.

以下是一些享用完美芒果的新鲜方式，来自《纽约时报》烹饪频道。

1. Mango With Chile-Lime Salt

1. 芒果配辣椒、青柠和盐

Christopher Simpson for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Prop Stylist: Paige Hicks.

In this take on a classic Mexican street-food snack, mango is sprinkled with a blend of ground chile, lime zest and salt to bring out its tang.