China’s exports and imports each set monthly records in April, further cementing the country as the world’s leading trading nation as Beijing prepares to welcome President Trump for a summit next week with Xi Jinping, China’s leader.

中国4月份的出口和进口双双创下单月历史新高，进一步巩固了其作为全球最大贸易国的地位。与此同时，北京正准备在下周迎接特朗普总统，他将与中国领导人习近平举行峰会。

China also ran a trade surplus — the excess of exports over imports — of $84.8 billion last month, according to data released on Saturday by the General Administration of Customs. However, that surplus did not set a record. The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed up the cost of imported oil and natural gas, causing China’s overall imports to increase slightly faster than exports.

根据中国海关总署周六公布的数据，中国4月份的贸易顺差（即出口超过进口的部分）达到848亿美元。不过，这一数字并未刷新纪录。由于伊朗战争以及霍尔木兹海峡关闭推高了石油和天然气的进口成本，导致中国整体进口增速略快于出口。

The surplus in April keeps China on track for a third year of roughly trillion-dollar trade surpluses. China posted a $1.19 trillion trade surplus last year, easily breaking the world record of $992 billion that it had set the year before.

4月份的贸易顺差使中国有望连续第三年实现万亿美元左右的贸易顺差。去年，中国的贸易顺差为1.19万亿美元，轻松打破了它在前一年创下的9920亿美元的世界纪录。

Mr. Trump is expected to press Mr. Xi to buy more American goods during their scheduled summit, part of his long-running effort to narrow China’s longtime trade surplus with the United States. But two recent court decisions overturning Mr. Trump’s tariffs on imports have eroded some of his leverage.

预计特朗普将在与习近平的峰会上敦促中国购买更多美国商品，这是他长期以来为缩小中国对美巨额贸易顺差所做的努力之一。但最近两项推翻特朗普关税政策的法院裁决削弱了他的一部分谈判筹码。

China’s exports to the United States jumped 11.3 percent last month compared to its shipments in April of last year, when President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs produced a slump in imports from China.

中国上月对美出口同比增长11.3%，而去年4月正值特朗普实施“解放日”关税，导致美国自中国的进口大幅下滑。

The country’s imports from the United States rose only 9 percent in April this year. As a result, its trade surplus with the United States widened by 13 percent.

今年4月，中国自美进口仅增长9%，致使对美贸易顺差扩大了13%。

China has long used state-run purchasing collectives in big categories like farm goods and commercial aircraft to manage its trade with the United States, ensuring it sells three to five times as much as it buys. Mr. Trump and his advisers have criticized that imbalance.

长期以来，中国一直通过国家统筹的集体采购体系管理与美国之间的大宗商品贸易，例如农产品和商用飞机，以确保其对美出口额达到进口额的三到五倍。特朗普及其顾问一直批评这种失衡局面。

Semiconductor exports doubled last month compared with April of last year. Chinese manufacturers cashed in on the artificial intelligence data center boom even though they cannot yet produce some of the fastest kinds of chips.

与去年4月相比，上个月的半导体出口翻了一番。尽管中国尚无法生产某些最先进的芯片，但中国制造商仍受益于人工智能数据中心的建设热潮。

Overall exports of electronics and machinery were up 20 percent in April from a year earlier.

4月份机电产品的整体出口同比增长20%。

China acts in many ways as a shock absorber in global oil markets. Beijing buys more oil for its vast reserves when the price is low, then cuts back purchases when prices are high, as they were last month.

在相当程度上，中国在全球石油市场扮演着“缓冲器”角色：油价低时大量购入以充实巨额储备，油价高时则削减采购——就像上个月那样。

With oil prices spiking upward this spring, the tonnage of China’s oil imports dropped last month to its lowest level since July 2022, when Shanghai’s two-month Covid lockdown reduced demand. The lockdown hurt many of China’s oil-dependent industries.

随着今年春季油价大幅攀升，中国上月石油进口量降至2022年7月以来的最低水平——当时上海因持续两个月的新冠封锁导致需求下降，许多依赖石油的行业受到打击。

Because prices rose faster last month than the tonnage declined, China’s overall bill for crude oil imports rose 13 percent from a year earlier. Rising oil prices helped drive China’s overall imports up 25.3 percent in April from a year ago, to a record $274.6 billion. Its exports surged 14.1 percent last month from a year earlier, to a record $359.4 billion.

不过，由于油价上涨幅度超过进口量下降幅度，中国4月原油进口总支出同比仍增长13%。油价上涨推动中国4月整体进口同比增长25.3%，达到创纪录的2746亿美元。出口同比增长14.1%，达到3594亿美元，同样创下历史新高。

China has been particularly successful this year in exporting electric cars as well as renewable energy products like wind turbines and solar panels. Exports of electric vehicles were up 52.8 percent last month from a year earlier.

今年中国在电动汽车以及风力发电机组、太阳能电池板等可再生能源产品的出口方面尤为成功。电动汽车出口较上年同期增长52.8%。

中国在风力发电机组等可再生能源技术的制造、应用和出口方面处于世界领先地位。

China has been running large, and widening, trade surpluses over the past several years with most of the rest of the world. It has trade deficits with only a handful of countries, including those like Brazil and Australia which have very large commodity exports.

过去几年，中国与全球大多数国家保持着庞大且不断扩大的贸易顺差。仅对少数国家存在贸易逆差，主要是巴西、澳大利亚等大宗商品出口大国。

The European Union and many developing countries now find themselves with rapidly growing trade deficits with China. Practically all of them have run their own trade surpluses with the United States to fund their deficits with China, sometimes repackaging goods from China and shipping them on to the United States to do so.

如今，欧盟以及许多发展中国家都面临对华贸易逆差迅速扩大的局面。几乎所有这些国家都依靠对美国的贸易顺差来弥补对中国的逆差，有时甚至会把从中国进口的商品重新包装后再转运至美国。

China’s huge trade surpluses are not necessarily a sign of economic strength. They partly reflect very weak spending by Chinese households on imports and domestic goods alike after five years of sliding housing prices wiped out much of the savings of the middle class. This has prompted many families to scrimp on purchases like new cars, leaving Chinese automakers with more cars to export.

不过，中国的巨额贸易顺差未必代表经济强劲。这在一定程度上反映了中国家庭消费的严重疲软——长达五年的房价下跌侵蚀了中产阶级的大部分储蓄，无论是进口商品还是国内商品，中国家庭的消费明显受抑。许多家庭因此紧缩开支，减少购车等消费，使得中国汽车制造商不得不将更多汽车转向出口。

“The Chinese economy still demonstrates resilience in trade and industrial supply chains,” said Zhu Tian, an economics professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, after the release of the trade data.

贸易数据公布后，上海中欧国际工商学院经济学教授朱天表示：“中国经济在贸易和工业供应链方面仍然展现出韧性。”

But weak domestic spending and a leveling off in the trade surplus, he said, “suggest that economic growth will continue to face significant challenges for the rest of the year.”

但他同时指出，内需疲软以及贸易顺差增长趋于平稳“表明今年余下时间经济增长将继续面临重大挑战。”

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Lee delivered parcels in Taiwan for a living, hung out with friends or played video games after work. He knew of Ukraine only from S.T.A.L.K.E.R., a game set in the Chernobyl nuclear zone.

在2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前，李在台湾是一名外送员，下班后不是和朋友聚会，就是打电动。他对乌克兰的了解仅限于《潜行者》这款以切尔诺贝利核禁区为背景的游戏。

Now, he is serving in the Ukrainian Army on the battlefield and hoping that what he has learned about drone warfare can help not only Ukraine but, someday, his own homeland.

如今，他正在乌克兰军队服役，战斗在前线。他希望学到的无人机作战经验，不仅能帮到乌克兰，也希望有朝一日能对自己的祖国有用。

“The war will happen one day with China, and then my experience will be valuable,” Lee, 37, said in an interview at a coffee shop in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, while on leave from the front. He asked to be identified by only his first name, in keeping with military protocol.

“有一天跟中国也会发生战争，那时我的经验会很有价值，”37岁的李在乌克兰首都基辅一家咖啡馆接受采访时说。他当时正从前线轮休。出于军队的规定，他要求文章仅使用他的姓氏。

Lee is part of an emerging, informal network of ordinary citizens and defense companies building partnerships between Ukraine and Taiwan. Driven by the threat of conquest by much larger hostile neighbors, they are sharing lessons, resources and battle-tested technology.

李是一个新兴非正式网络的组成部分——这一网络由普通公民和国防企业共同构成，致力于在乌克兰和台湾之间建立伙伴关系。出于对被更强大的敌对邻国吞并的担忧，他们正在分享经验、资源和经过实战检验的技术。

Their efforts bypass the absence of official diplomatic or military relations between Ukraine and Taiwan, as well as sensitivities in both governments about upsetting China. The Ukrainian drone industry depends on China for most of its components, like motors and batteries. Taiwan, too, is deeply integrated into the Chinese economy.

这些努力绕开了乌台之间正式外交和军事关系的缺失，也避开了两国政府都不愿得罪中国的敏感问题。乌克兰无人机产业的大部分电机和电池等零部件依赖中国供应，台湾同样也与中国经济深度融合。

Since 1992, Ukraine has adhered to the “One China” principle, which means it ​recognizes only the Chinese government in Beijing​, not Taiwan. And to avoid antagonizing China, Taiwan does not want ​it to view it as going too far to aid Ukraine, given Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow.

自1992年以来，乌克兰一直坚守“一个中国”原则，即只承认北京的中国政府，不承认台湾。而台湾为避免激怒中国，也不希望北京认为它援乌力度过大——毕竟北京与莫斯科保持着“无上限”的伙伴关系。

Still, unofficial exchanges of military technology and expertise are occurring among executives of defense companies and volunteers like Lee. The two governments have also inched closer together as Taiwan has sent humanitarian and reconstruction aid to Ukraine, and Ukrainian lawmakers have visited Taipei, Taiwan’s capital.

尽管如此，国防企业高管和像李这样的志愿者之间仍在进行非官方的军事技术与经验交流。与此同时，随着台湾向乌克兰提供人道主义和重建援助以及乌克兰议员访问台北，双方政府间的关系也在悄然拉近。

2022年，在台北，人们正在打包捐赠物资。俄乌战争期间，台湾向乌克兰提供了援助。

Lee said he believed that Taiwan, as it tries to strengthen its defenses against any potential invasion by China, should adopt the inventive arsenal of flying, swimming and crawling robots that Ukraine has used to even the odds.

李表示，他认为台湾在加强自身防御、应对中国可能入侵的过程中，应当借鉴乌克兰用以扭转战局的那套创新武器体系——包括飞行、游弋和地面爬行的各类机器人。

He said that when he travels home, friends he once served with in the Taiwanese Army, some of whom are still members, are overflowing with questions about drones on the Ukrainian battlefield.

他说，每次回台湾，曾与他一同在台湾军队服役的朋友——其中一些人如今仍在役——都会不停询问乌克兰战场上的无人机情况。

They ask how a drone can be electronically jammed, or how to escape when one chases you, he said. In fact, little can be done if an exploding drone targets a soldier.

他们问无人机怎么会被电子干扰，或者被无人机追踪时该如何逃脱。他说，实际上，一旦爆炸性无人机锁定士兵，几乎无计可施。

“Those questions are like baby questions — like asking how to eat,” he said.

“那些问题就像婴儿级的问题——就像问人该怎么吃饭一样，”他说。

Defense analysts and some retired Taiwanese defense officials have criticized Taiwan’s military over its sluggishness to innovate, including its failure to fully embrace the sort of asymmetric warfare that Ukraine has pioneered.

一些国防分析人士以及部分台湾退役防务官员批评台湾军方在创新方面动作迟缓，包括未能真正全面接受乌克兰所开创的那种不对称战争模式。

The Taiwanese government has also acknowledged obstacles to forming official defense connections with Kyiv.

台湾政府也承认，与基辅建立官方防务联系方面面临重重障碍。

“Ukraine’s experience in using drones in real combat environments is highly valuable,” said Tsou Yu-hsin, a deputy director general of the Industrial Development Administration in Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. But wartime secrecy around drone technology, he said, made it difficult to study Ukraine’s techniques.

“乌克兰于实战环境中累积之无人机运用经验具高度参考价值，”台湾经济部产业发展署副署长邹宇新表示。但他指出，一些技术涉及了与国防安全及机敏性质，后续如涉及技术引进或应用评估，仍有待国防主管部门机关评估。

Yet one rank-and-file Ukrainian soldier who vacationed in Taiwan with his girlfriend was invited to speak to representatives of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee in the Taiwanese Parliament.

然而，一名正与女友在台湾休假的乌克兰普通士兵受邀向台湾立法院外交及国防委员会的委员们发表演讲。

The soldier, who pilots drones, said he spent hours last summer describing the war in Ukraine. He asked that his name be withheld because he had not been authorized to speak to the Taiwanese government or to The New York Times.

这名无人机飞行员士兵表示，去年夏天他花了几个小时讲述乌克兰战争的情况。由于未获授权与台湾政府或《纽约时报》交流，他要求隐去姓名。

Ordinary Taiwanese are also trying to learn more. Tina Hu, 35, a project manager in Taipei, said she had read a civil defense handbook that mentioned drone safety based on Ukrainian experiences. She has found the location of a nearby bomb shelter and prepared a “go bag” with batteries, flashlights and food for each member of her family.

普通台湾民众也在努力了解更多相关信息。35岁的台北项目经理蒂娜·胡（音）表示，她读过一本民防手册，其中提到了基于乌克兰经验总结出的无人机安全知识。她已找到附近防空洞的位置，并为家里每位成员准备了装有电池、手电筒和食物的“应急包”。

2022年，台北举行了一场支持乌克兰的集会。

In the private sector, ties continue to grow. Taiwan has become what Ukrainian drone producers describe as a “gateway for Chinese parts.” Even after China tightened direct sales to Ukraine — a move that Ukrainian officials attributed to Beijing’s ties to Moscow — some components remained for sale in Taiwan, drone manufacturers said.

在私营部门，双方联系持续深化。台湾已成为乌克兰无人机生产商口中的“中国零部件转运枢纽”。乌克兰无人机制造商表示，即便在中国收紧对乌直接销售之后——乌克兰官员将此归因于北京与莫斯科的关系——部分零部件在台湾仍可购得。

Taiwanese companies often route sales to Ukraine through Eastern Europe. Taiwan exported 70,372 drones to the Czech Republic and 31,711 to Poland in 2025, said Samara Duerr, a national security analyst at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology, a research organization in Taiwan backed by the Taiwanese government. Most ultimately wound up in Ukraine, she said, many through donations from charitable organizations to the Ukrainian Army.

台湾企业通常通过东欧国家向乌克兰转运产品。台湾政府支持的研究机构——科技、民主与社会研究中心的国家安全分析师李希希(Samara Duerr)表示，2025年台湾向捷克出口了70372架无人机，向波兰出口了31711架。她说，其中大部分最终都流向了乌克兰，许多是通过慈善组织捐赠给乌克兰军队的。

The business connections go both ways. In Taiwan, international defense contractors market drone models to the military as battle-tested in Ukraine, but not sold directly by Ukrainian manufacturers. Taiwanese manufacturers have also sent drones to Ukraine for testing, said Gene Su, the general manager of Thunder Tiger, a major drone company in Taichung, a city in central Taiwan.

这种商业联系是双向的。在台湾，国际防务承包商向军方推销无人机型号时，经常强调这些产品已经在乌克兰战场上经过实战检验，但这些产品并非由乌克兰制造商直接销售。台中的大型无人机企业雷虎科技总经理苏圣杰表示，台湾制造商也把无人机送往乌克兰进行测试。

International defense contractors have asked Ukrainian engineers to devise specific designs tailored to Taiwan’s needs.

一些国际防务承包商还要求乌克兰工程师设计专门针对台湾需求的方案。

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Oleksandr Mashchenko converted his successful wakeboard business into a maker of sea drones, sold under the brand name Strug. An industry contact later asked him to look into maritime drone systems to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，奥列克桑德尔·马什琴科把自己原本有声有色的滑水板生意，转型为海上无人机制造商，品牌名为Strug。一位业内人士随后跟他联络，请其研究用于抵御中国入侵台湾的海上无人机系统。

He told the contact that Ukraine could help. Taiwan needs defenses that extend well into the strait separating it from China. That, Mr. Mashchenko said, could involve underwater drones or surface drone platforms armed with interceptors. Ukraine has fielded similar systems in the Black Sea.

他告诉这位联系人，乌克兰可以提供帮助。台湾需要能够延伸到台湾海峡的防御体系。马什琴科表示，这可能涉及水下无人机或配备拦截装置的水面无人机平台——乌克兰已在黑海部署了类似系统。

4月，台中，大型无人机企业雷虎科技旗下的实验室里，工作人员正在研发无人机零部件。

Soren Monroe-Anderson, the chief executive of an American drone maker, Neros, said his company was testing 100 drones in Taiwan that are based on designs developed in Ukraine. Neros has an office in Ukraine and is exploring opening production in Taiwan, he said.

美国无人机制造商Neros的首席执行官索伦·门罗-安德森表示，他的公司正在台湾测试100架基于乌克兰开发设计的无人机。他还说，Neros在乌克兰设有办公室，并正在考虑在台湾建生产基地的可能性。

“Our goal is to get capability developed in Ukraine to Taiwan and produce there in large quantities,” Mr. Monroe-Anderson said.

“我们的目标是将乌克兰研发的作战能力带到台湾，并在那里大规模生产，”门罗-安德森说。

Lorenz Meier, the chief executive of Auterion, another U.S. defense technology firm with operations in Ukraine, signed a cooperation agreement last year with a Taiwanese research institution. The targeting software that his company codes is used extensively, and constantly refined, on the Ukrainian battlefield.

另一家在乌克兰开展业务的美国国防科技公司Auterion的首席执行官洛伦茨·迈尔，去年与一家台湾研究机构签署了合作协议。他公司开发的目标锁定软件，已经被广泛应用于乌克兰战场，并在实战中不断改进。

And in March, one of Ukraine’s largest defense start-ups, General Cherry, announced a partnership with an American company, Wilcox, that will produce General Cherry-designed drones in the United States. Wilcox sells its products in Taiwan.

今年3月，乌克兰最大的国防初创企业之一General Cherry宣布与美国公司Wilcox建立合作关系，将在美国生产由General Cherry设计的无人机。而Wilcox的产品也销往台湾。

Ukraine is eager to deepen partnerships around the world, and it recently signed security agreements with three Middle Eastern nations. But as the spread of Ukrainian-designed technology occurs beyond the control of Ukraine’s government, it has been a sore spot.

乌克兰热切希望深化与世界各国的合作关系，最近还与三个中东国家签署了安全协议。但随着乌克兰设计的技术逐渐扩散到政府控制范围之外，这也成为一个棘手的问题。

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine does not want Ukrainian-designed drones to be sold abroad merely as pieces of hardware. Instead, he is encouraging Ukrainian companies to offer subscriptions — to devices, software updates and the services of remote pilots in Ukraine. Such deals, Ukrainian leaders believe, would lead to more long-term security agreements with other countries.

乌克兰总统泽连斯基不希望乌克兰设计的无人机仅仅作为硬件产品在海外销售。相反，他鼓励乌克兰企业提供订阅服务——包括设备、软件更新，以及乌克兰远程飞手提供的操作服务。乌克兰领导层认为，这类合作将有助于与其他国家建立更长期的安全合作关系。

He told journalists in March that he knew of at least 10 production facilities that had sprung up abroad where international defense companies and some Ukrainian firms were making Ukrainian-designed drones. A senior Ukrainian official and a defense industry representative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, said one such factory was in Taiwan.

他在3月曾对记者表示，他知道至少有10个海外生产基地已经建立起来，由国际国防公司和一些乌克兰企业生产乌克兰设计的无人机。两名要求匿名的乌克兰高级官员和国防工业代表在谈及这一敏感问题时表示，其中一家工厂就在台湾。

An outbreak of hantavirus aboard a cruise ship in the Atlantic Ocean has heightened concerns about the rare but deadly virus. Public health officials say that the threat to the general public remains low based on what we know about the virus and how it spreads.

大西洋一艘邮轮上爆发的汉坦病毒疫情加剧了人们对这种罕见但致命病毒的担忧。公共卫生官员表示，基于目前对该病毒及其传播方式的认知，该病毒对普通公众的威胁依然较低。

The outbreak involves the Andes strain of the virus.

本次疫情涉及的是汉坦病毒的安第斯毒株

There are many different strains of hantavirus, said Dr. Gaby Frank, director of the Johns Hopkins Special Pathogens Center in Baltimore. Laboratory testing has shown that the cruise outbreak involves the Andes strain, which is endemic to South America, including Argentina, where the ship departed on April 1. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention at the W.H.O., said the initial cases of hantavirus were in a couple believed to be infected before they boarded in Argentina.

巴尔的摩约翰斯·霍普金斯大学特殊病原体中心主任加比·弗兰克博士表示，汉坦病毒存在多种不同毒株。实验室检测确认，本次邮轮疫情的致病原为安第斯毒株，该毒株是南美洲的地方性流行毒株，这艘邮轮4月1日正是从阿根廷启航。世界卫生组织流行病与大流行病预备及预防负责人玛丽亚·范·科克霍夫博士称，本次疫情最初的汉坦病毒感染病例为一对夫妇，据信他们在阿根廷登船前就已被感染。

Most forms of hantavirus spread through contact with the feces, urine and saliva of infected rodents, including when humans breathe in particles of the virus. The Andes virus is the only strain known to spread from human to human, though such cases are rare.

大多数汉坦病毒毒株通过接触受感染啮齿动物的粪便、尿液和唾液传播，包括人类吸入含病毒气溶胶颗粒的情况。安第斯病毒是目前已知唯一可发生人传人的汉坦病毒毒株，不过此类传播病例十分罕见。

Unlike the flu, Covid or even the common cold, it’s exceedingly difficult for the Andes strain to move between people, said Bryce Warner, a research scientist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan who has extensively researched hantavirus.

萨斯喀彻温大学疫苗与传染病研究所长期致力于汉坦病毒研究的研究科学家布莱斯·沃纳表示，与流感、新冠甚至普通感冒不同，安第斯毒株的人际间传播难度极高。

The flu and Covid primarily spread from the upper respiratory tract and replicate in high levels. Hantavirus sheds less easily, and also burrows deep into the lungs and infects blood vessels. “It’s not very easy for the virus to get out,” Dr. Warner said.

流感和新冠病毒主要在上呼吸道复制，并在体内大量复制。而汉坦病毒不仅难以排出体外，还会深入肺部组织、感染血管。沃纳说：“这种病毒很难从人体中排出。”

Those at highest risk of person-to-person transmission are people who have been in close quarters for prolonged periods of time with someone who has been infected, like health care workers or those who share a household. Two of the passengers who died on the ship were a married couple. The ship’s doctor showed symptoms of the virus and was evacuated from the ship. It isn’t clear yet how other people on board may have been infected.

人际传播的最高风险人群是与感染者长期处于密闭空间的人，比如医护人员或共同居住者。本次邮轮上两名死亡的乘客是一对夫妻，随船医生出现病毒感染症状后已被撤离船只。目前尚不清楚船上其他人员的感染途径。

Dr. Van Kerkhove has said that some of the cases were in close contact with one another, and that “human-to-human transmission can’t be ruled out.”

范·科克霍夫博士表示，部分病例之间存在密切接触，且“无法排除人传人的可能性”。

Most passengers remain on the ship.

大多数乘客仍滞留船上

Health officials have not said how those on the ship may need to quarantine when they disembark. They might ask people who were exposed to the infected cases to quarantine, but it’s tricky to keep people isolated for an extended period of time, since it can take between one and six weeks after a person is exposed for symptoms to appear.

卫生部门尚未明确乘客下船后可能需要采取何种隔离措施。相关部门或会要求确诊病例的接触者进行隔离，但长期隔离的执行难度极大，因为从接触病毒到出现症状可能需要一至六周的时间。

The W.H.O. said that health officials have initiated contact tracing for people who may have been exposed to people who left the ship, such as one woman who flew to South Africa for care and who later died.

世界卫生组织称，卫生部门已对可能接触过离船者的人员启动接触者追踪，其中包括一名飞往南非就医后死亡的女性。

Some passengers have already left the ship, including Americans. The Georgia Department of Public Health said it was monitoring two residents who are “currently in good health and show no signs of infection,” adding that they were following recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

部分乘客已离船，其中包括美国公民。佐治亚州公共卫生部门表示，正在监控两名当地居民，二人“目前健康状况良好，无任何感染迹象”，同时称二人正在遵循美国疾控中心的相关建议。

Outside of this outbreak, the virus is dangerous, but rare.

除本次疫情外，该病毒危险但罕见

In general, hantaviruses pose a small risk to the general population. There have been a total of 890 cases in the United States since surveillance began in 1993. The vast majority of these have been caused by the Sin Nombre strain of the virus and have occurred west of the Mississippi River, with case counts highest in New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona and California. Of these cases, 35 percent have been fatal.

总体而言，汉坦病毒对普通人群的感染风险极低。美国自1993年启动监测以来累计报告890例汉坦病毒感染病例，其中绝大多数由“无名”型毒株引发，发生在密西西比河以西地区，新墨西哥州、科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚州的病例数最高。这些病例的病死率为35%。

The Andes virus is not endemic, or native, to the United States, though there have been imported cases from other countries, said Steven Bradfute, an associate professor at the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center.

新墨西哥大学健康科学中心副教授史蒂文·布拉德富特表示，安第斯病毒并非美国本土的地方性流行毒株，不过美国曾出现过境外输入的相关病例。

Both the Andes and Sin Nombre strains can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, a condition that begins with flu-like symptoms such as fever and chills but can rapidly progress to lung problems and difficulty breathing. There is no drug that can treat the infection, so doctors can offer only supportive care, which might include oxygen or a heart-lung machine. Getting to a hospital quickly and receiving breathing support can improve the chances of survival.

安第斯毒株与无名毒株均可引发汉坦病毒肺综合征，发病初期表现为发热、寒战等流感样症状，但病情可快速进展为肺部病变和呼吸困难。目前尚无针对该病毒感染的特效药，医生仅能提供支持性治疗，包括包括供氧或使用心肺机。及时就医并接受呼吸支持治疗可提升患者的存活几率。

Different strains of the virus circulate in Europe and Asia, where there are thousands of cases each year, but the lethality rate is lower, between less than 1 percent and 15 percent, depending on the strain. Those versions of the virus primarily affect the kidneys.

欧洲和亚洲也流行着汉坦病毒的其他不同毒株，每年累计报告数千例病例，但病死率更低，依毒株不同在1%以下到15%之间。这些毒株变种主要损害人体肾脏。

But researchers stressed that the average person should not worry about the virus or necessarily change their daily behavior.

但研究人员强调，普通民众无需担心这种病毒，也不必因此改变日常行为。

“There’s really no risk to anyone who is not on that ship,” Dr. Warner said.

沃纳说：“对于不在这艘邮轮上的人来说，完全没有风险。”

It’s very different from the early spread of Covid.

与新冠病毒的早期传播截然不同

Reports of the outbreak might seem similar to the early days of the Covid pandemic, when a mysterious virus was spreading on cruise ships and passengers were being quarantined on board. But experts said that the hantavirus is much more difficult to transmit and has considerably less potential to turn into a pandemic.

关于此次疫情的报道似乎与新冠疫情初期颇为相似，当时一种神秘病毒在邮轮上传播，乘客被隔离在船上。但专家表示，汉坦病毒的传播难度要大得多，演变为全球大流行的可能性也小得多。

“It’s good to be cautious, but there’s no need for concern over a global outbreak,” Dr. Bradfute said.

布拉德富特说：“保持谨慎是好事，但无需担心全球爆发疫情。”

Dr. Emily Abdoler, a clinical associate professor of infectious diseases at Michigan Medicine, said that past cases of the virus spreading between humans had not resulted in large outbreaks — “nothing even close to the scale of Covid.”

密歇根大学医学院传染病学临床副教授艾米丽·阿布多勒博士表示，过往的汉坦病毒人际传播病例从未引发大规模疫情，“规模完全无法与新冠相提并论”。

Those at greatest risk can take steps to protect themselves.

高风险人群可采取措施自我防护

Agricultural workers who come into contact with mice and rodent droppings are at increased risk. People cleaning out sheds and garages might also want to be especially careful about mouse and rodent droppings.

频繁接触老鼠及啮齿动物粪便的农业从业者感染风险相对更高。清理棚屋和车库的人员也需格外留意老鼠及啮齿动物的粪便。

You can wear gloves and use a bleach solution or a household cleaner to wet surfaces when cleaning them. Don’t sweep or use a vacuum, which could stir particles into the air that you could inhale. Wearing a well-fitting N95 mask can offer protection against viral particles, Dr. Bradfute said.

清洁时可佩戴手套，用漂白剂溶液或家用清洁剂浸湿待清洁的表面。勿直接清扫或使用吸尘器，以免将可被人体吸入的颗粒物扬起到空气中。布拉德富特称，佩戴贴合良好的N95口罩，可有效防范病毒颗粒。

People who travel to places where the virus is common and visit rural areas or go camping or hiking should take precautions to minimize exposure to potentially infectious materials. The W.H.O. has a fact-sheet that describes where infections are most prevalent.

前往病毒流行地区、到访乡村区域，或是露营、徒步的人士应采取防护措施，最大限度减少接触可能具有传染性的物质。世界卫生组织发布过相关情况说明，列明了汉坦病毒感染最常发生的地区。

As the war in Iran drags on, China has deepened its influence with fuel-starved neighbors, offering to ease shortages while pushing its renewable energy technology.

随着伊朗战事持续胶着，中国在饱受燃料短缺困扰的邻国中影响力持续深化，一面承诺缓解能源短缺困境，一面推广中国的可再生能源技术。

In the days after the United States and Israel attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, China banned oil-product exports, squeezing Asian countries that rely on its refineries for jet fuel, gasoline and diesel.

美以两国对伊朗发动袭击、霍尔木兹海峡关闭后的数日里，中国叫停了成品油出口，这让依赖中国炼厂供应航空燃油、汽油与柴油的亚洲国家处境雪上加霜。

Across Asia, governments are petitioning Beijing to blunt the war’s impact. Unlike the rest of the region, China is dealing from a position of strength. It is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, but it has amassed huge reserves, spent decades reducing its dependence on foreign oil and poured hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy technology.

亚洲各国政府纷纷向北京求助，希望其缓解战争带来的冲击。与该地区其他国家不同，中国处于强势地位。中国是全球最大的原油进口国，但它已积累了庞大的战略石油储备，数十年来持续降低对海外石油的依赖，并向清洁能源技术领域投入了数千亿美元。

Vietnam appealed to Beijing over its looming jet fuel shortage. The Philippines asked China not to restrict fertilizer exports. After a visit to China last month to press the subject, Australia’s foreign minister said Beijing would cooperate with Australian companies on jet fuel shipments.

越南就迫在眉睫的航空燃油短缺问题向北京求援；菲律宾请求中国不要限制化肥出口；澳大利亚外长上月访华进行交涉后表示，北京将与澳大利亚企业合作保障航空燃油运输。

The outreach produced assurances from China to address regional energy security issues as well as commitments from other countries to advance diplomatic dialogue with Beijing and, in some cases, cooperate on future renewable energy projects, according to government readouts. The diplomacy kept some Chinese fuel flowing, helping Asia avoid some of the worst-case scenarios that experts feared at the start of the war.

各国政府发布的公告显示，通过这些外交接触，中国承诺解决区域能源安全问题，相关国家则承诺推进与北京的外交对话，部分国家还表示将在未来的可再生能源项目上开展合作。这些外交斡旋保障了中国部分燃料的持续供应，帮助亚洲地区规避了战争爆发初期专家们担忧的最坏情况。

中国某港口内的风力涡轮机。中国正通过向能源短缺的邻国提供缓解短缺的方案，同时推广其可再生能源技术，从而进一步扩大了在这些国家的影响力。

Since the war began, Beijing has held high-level talks with officials from the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

战争爆发以来，北京已与菲律宾、澳大利亚、越南、柬埔寨、老挝、泰国、缅甸、孟加拉国的官员举行了高层会谈。

China’s message has been consistent: It did not start the war and does not want the Strait of Hormuz closed off — but it does offer an alternative to fossil fuels.

中国传递的立场始终一致：这场战争并非中国发起，中国也不希望霍尔木兹海峡被封锁——但中国能够为各国提供化石燃料之外的替代方案。

Beijing has cast itself as the leader of a future powered by renewable and domestically sourced energy, in contrast to President Trump’s embrace of oil and natural gas, which leaves much of the world exposed to volatility in regions like the Middle East.

北京将自身定位为未来可再生能源和本土能源驱动时代的引领者，这与特朗普总统推崇油气能源的立场形成鲜明对比——后者的能源政策让全球大部分国家都面临中东等地区局势动荡的风险。

“China is stepping in cautiously to support its neighbors,” said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, an independent research group. “They are using this as a soft-power tool to say, ‘We will try to support your energy security with the caveat that China comes first,’ laying the foundations for sales of green technology as a way of security in the future.”

独立研究机构牛津能源研究所中国能源研究主管米哈尔·梅丹表示：“中国正谨慎地介入，为邻国提供支持。他们将此作为软实力工具，传递出‘我们会尽力保障你们的能源安全，但前提是中国利益优先’的信号，同时为未来以绿色技术出口作为能源安全保障的模式奠定基础。”

For years, China has used its economic might and technological know-how to extend its global influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, doling out an estimated $1 trillion in loans and grants for infrastructure projects worldwide, mostly in developing nations. But the war in Iran has allowed it to extend its influence without the reputational risk associated with lending to heavily indebted countries.

多年来，中国借助自身经济实力与技术储备，通过“一带一路”倡议扩大全球影响力，为全球基础设施项目提供了大约1万亿美元的贷款与赠款，其中大部分流向发展中国家。而伊朗战争让中国无需承担向高负债国家放贷带来的声誉风险，便实现了影响力的进一步延伸。

“Chinese officials are aware of the blowback, and they see clean energy as a remedy to the bad image of the Belt and Road Initiative,” said Dan Wang, China director at the Eurasia Group.

欧亚集团中国区总监王丹表示：“中国官方清楚相关负面反应，他们将清洁能源视为修复‘一带一路’倡议不良形象的补救措施。”

Oil continued to flow from China in the first month of the war, though experts caution against reading too closely into export figures, which can swing sharply from month to month. Shipments of jet fuel from China to Vietnam increased 34 percent, fertilizer exports to the Philippines rose 33 percent and diesel exports to the Philippines surged 187 percent in March, compared with the month before.

战争爆发的首月，中国的石油仍在对外出口，不过专家提醒，不要过度解读月度间波动极大的出口数据。3月，中国对越南的航空燃油出口量环比增长34%，对菲律宾的化肥出口环比增长33%，柴油出口环比激增187%。

Asian economies are still reeling from the war’s costs, which have reached a scale not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic halted much of global trade. Economists warn that the longer the strait stays shut, the more devastating the long-term damage will be for a region that still depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil.

亚洲各经济体仍在承受战争带来的经济冲击，其规模已达到自新冠疫情导致全球贸易大面积停摆以来的最高水平。经济学家警告，霍尔木兹海峡关闭的时间越长，对这个依然高度依赖中东石油的地区造成的长期损害就越严重。

电动汽车的生产和出口有助于维持中国出口的强劲势头，这对中国疲软的国内经济至关重要。

But continued shipments of some Chinese oil products to select countries have offered relief and underscored how Beijing deploys carrots in times of crisis to engender good will, analysts and energy experts say.

但分析人士与能源专家表示，中国向特定国家持续供应部分石油产品不仅缓解了当地的燃眉之急，也凸显了北京方面在危机时期如何运用“胡萝卜”策略来赢得善意。

“China’s ban was not a complete ban,” Ms. Wang said. “It was more selective, and it seemed that good diplomatic relations played a big role.”

“中国的禁令并非全面禁止，”王丹说。“它更具选择性，而良好的外交关系显然在其中发挥了重要作用。”

Vietnam and Australia, for example, were beneficiaries because their relationship with Beijing has been improving. “So they did get some fuel, if not the full amount they needed,” said Ms. Wang, who recently traveled to China and met with industry experts.

例如，越南和澳大利亚就是受益者，因为它们与北京的关系一直在改善。“所以它们确实获得了一些燃料，尽管可能未达到所需的全部数量，”王丹说。她最近曾前往中国并与行业专家会面。

At times, China has dangled the prospect of assistance in exchange for acceptance of its political terms. In March, as Taiwan raced to secure new energy sources, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office floated a thinly veiled bargain to the self-governed island, which Beijing claims as its own.

中国有时也会以援助为筹码，要求对方接受其政治条件。3月，就在台湾紧急寻求新能源供应渠道之际，中国国台办向这个北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿抛出了一份几乎不加掩饰的交易条件。

Taiwan, the office said, would enjoy “better resource security after peaceful reunification, with a strong motherland as its backing.” The island imports more than 96 percent of its energy, and around 60 percent of its oil transits through the strait.

国台办表示，台湾在“和平统一后，有强大祖国做后盾，能源资源保障会更好”。台湾超96%的能源依赖进口，约60%的石油运输需途经霍尔木兹海峡。

The war in Iran has exposed many of Asia’s vulnerabilities, and China is not alone in using its resources to keep the region afloat. Japan pledged $10 billion to help Southeast Asian nations cope with soaring oil prices and support factories that supply important equipment to Japanese industry.

伊朗战争暴露了亚洲的脆弱性，而利用自身资源保障地区稳定的并非只有中国。日本承诺提供100亿美元，帮助东南亚国家应对油价暴涨，并支持向日本工业供应重要设备的工厂。

But for China, the war has also created an opportunity to push its renewable energy technology across the region. China dominates the world in manufacturing equipment for solar farms, wind farms and smart grids, as well as in the production of electric vehicles. Sending these goods abroad helps keep China’s exports booming, a critical engine of growth for a stagnating domestic economy.

但对中国而言，这场战争也为其在全亚洲推广可再生能源技术创造了契机。中国在光伏电站、风电场、智能电网设备制造，以及电动汽车生产领域占据全球主导地位。向海外出口这些产品有助于维持中国出口的强劲势头，而出口正是中国国内经济增长乏力之际的核心增长引擎。

“The conflict provides them with a springboard to achieving that objective of becoming an energy powerhouse,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “To the extent that they can use that energy technology as a carrot or stick is useful.”

哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心高级研究员埃里卡·唐斯表示：“这场冲突为他们实现能源强国的目标提供了跳板。只要能将能源技术作为胡萝卜或大棒来使用，对他们而言就是有益的。”

In an opinion essay penned weeks before the start of the Iran war, Chinese state media argued that becoming an “energy powerhouse” would strengthen China’s “strategic initiative in great power competition.” The article reflected Beijing’s broader push to make China more resilient and self-sufficient in energy, raw materials, critical minerals and supply chains.

伊朗战争爆发数周前，中国官方媒体在一篇评论文章中提出，成为“能源强国”将提升中国在“大国博弈中的战略主动”。这篇文章也反映出北京更广泛的努力：增强中国在能源、原材料、关键矿产和供应链领域的韧性与自给自足能力。

China has “fully leveraged the positive role of energy diplomacy,” Wei Xiaowei, director of the International Cooperation Department of the National Energy Administration, wrote in a report days after the war began. He pointed to projects in dozens of countries, many backed by Chinese state-owned enterprises, including wind farms in Kazakhstan and Montenegro and solar plants in the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Algeria.

战争爆发数日后，国家能源局国际合作司司长魏晓威在一份报告中写道，中国已“充分发挥能源外交的积极作用”。他提及了中国在数十个国家的相关项目，其中多数由中国国有企业支持，包括哈萨克斯坦和黑山的风电场，以及阿联酋、阿根廷、阿尔及利亚的光伏电站。

The war in the Middle East has given China an outlet for its glut of electric vehicles, solar panels and other green technology. Chinese solar panel exports more than doubled in March compared with the previous month, while electric vehicle exports also rose despite tariffs aimed at keeping them out of many markets.

中东战事为中国过剩的电动汽车、光伏组件及其他绿色技术产品提供了出口渠道。3月，中国光伏组件出口量较上月增长了一倍多；尽管许多市场为阻止中国产品进入而征收关税，但电动汽车出口量也出现了增长。

Complaints that Chinese manufacturers are flooding the global market with inexpensive goods have softened amid the energy crisis.

能源危机之下，此前针对中国制造商向全球市场低价倾销商品的抱怨有所减弱。

“There are lots of countries that were critical and upset about China’s overcapacity and dumping it in the international market,” Ms. Downs said. “But when you are in the midst of a crisis, that doesn’t look so bad anymore.”

“很多国家此前都对中国的产能过剩、向国际市场倾销的行为表示不满和批评。但当你身处危机之中，这些问题看起来就没那么糟糕了，”唐斯说。

Two former Chinese defense ministers have received death sentences with two years’ reprieve — meaning they will probably spend the rest of their lives in prison — after being convicted on bribery charges, military courts announced on Thursday.

中国军事法院于周四宣布，两名前中国国防部长因贿赂罪名被判处死刑，缓期两年执行——这意味着他们可能会在监狱中度过余生。

The two men, both generals, are the most senior officers so far to have been publicly sentenced in China’s latest campaign to root out corruption and disloyalty in the armed forces.

这两位将军是中国近期在军队中针对腐败和不忠诚展开的行动中，迄今被公开判刑的最高级别将领。

A brief report from the official Chinese news agency Xinhua said that one of the two former ministers, Gen. Wei Fenghe, had taken bribes, while the other, Gen. Li Shangfu, had both taken and given bribes. The announcement gave no further details about the allegations. In China, judges usually reduce death sentences with two years’ reprieve to life in prison if those convicted demonstrate good behavior.

据中国官方通讯社新华社的一份简短报道称，其中一位前部长魏凤和上将犯受贿罪，而另一位李尚福上将犯受贿罪、行贿罪。公告未透露指控的更多细节。在中国，如果被判刑者表现良好，法官通常会将死刑缓期两年执行减为无期徒刑。

The two generals were among the first senior officers to be removed from their posts and arrested as the latest drive by Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to clean up the military’s top brass was gaining momentum a few years ago. Since then, around 100 senior officers have been dismissed or have disappeared from public view, suggesting that they are under investigation, according to a recent estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research group in Washington.

随着中国领导人习近平几年来清理军队高层的最新行动势头增强，这两位将军是最早被撤职并逮捕的高级军官。根据华盛顿研究机构战略与国际研究中心最近的估算，自那以后，已有约100名高级军官被撤职或从公众视野中消失，后一种情况表明他们正在接受调查。

At a meeting last month, Mr. Xi indicated that his anticorruption campaign would continue, Chinese official media reported.

据中国官方媒体报道，习近平在上个月的一次会议上表示，他的反腐运动将继续进行。

Analysts said the sentences handed down to General Wei and General Li would serve as a warning to others in the military about Mr. Xi’s determination to continue with the shake-up, even though it has severely depleted his high command. Mr. Xi’s recent comments suggested that he sees corruption and disloyalty in the military as related threats, because the temptations of self-enrichment also weaken officers’ fealty to the Communist Party and to Mr. Xi.

分析人士指出，对魏凤和及李尚福的判决将对军中其他人起到警示作用，表明习近平决心继续这场整顿，尽管这已严重削弱了他的高层指挥系统。习近平最近的言论表明，他将军队中的腐败和不忠诚视为相互关联的威胁，因为中饱私囊的诱惑也会削弱军官对共产党和习近平本人的忠诚。

“Charges like this can be about real corruption and also a political tactic,” said Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang, an expert on the Chinese military who formerly served in Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

“这类指控既可能涉及真实的腐败，也可能是一种政治手段，”曾任职于台湾国防部的中国军事问题专家杨念祖表示。

“Putting these two senior military leaders under a suspended sentence to death can be used to justify the tightening control of the armed forces under Xi Jinping,” Mr. Yang added.

“将这两位高级军事领导人判处死缓，可以作为习近平加强对武装部队控制的正当理由，”杨念祖还说。

General Li was appointed defense minister in March 2023, but months later, he stopped carrying out his normal public activities and was then dismissed from his post. The following year, Communist Party investigators accused him and General Wei, who had been the defense minister from 2018 to 2023, of taking large bribes, trading in military promotions and compromising weapons production with their corruption.

李尚福于2023年3月被任命为国防部长，但几个月后停止了正常的公开活动，随后被解除职务。次年，中共调查人员指控他同2018年至2023年担任国防部长的魏凤和收受巨额贿赂、买卖军衔，并因腐败问题损害了武器生产。

In China, the post of defense minister is a relatively weak one, because the real power lies in the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party, under Mr. Xi’s command. The accusations against the two former ministers may date to their earlier careers, including when they commanded military units that spent large amounts of money.

在中国，国防部长的职位相对弱势，因为真正的权力掌握在习近平领导的中共中央军事委员会手中。针对这两位前部长的指控可能追溯到他们更早期的职业生涯，包括他们执掌有大量开支的军事单位的时期。

General Li, 68, rose through the ranks in rocket and weapons development, as well as in China’s manned space program. He was a deputy commander of the Strategic Support Force, which Mr. Xi created in late 2015 as part of a reorganization of the Chinese military. General Wei, 72, was the first commander of the Rocket Force, which oversees most of China’s nuclear missiles as well as thousands of conventional ones.

68岁的李尚福在火箭和武器开发以及中国载人航天计划领域逐步晋升。他曾任战略支援部队副司令员，该部队是习近平在2015年底军队重组过程中创立的。72岁的魏凤和则是火箭军的首任司令员，该部队掌管着中国大部分核导弹以及成千上万的常规导弹。

Since the two former ministers’ downfall, many more senior Chinese commanders have been dismissed and investigated. In January, the most senior full-time officer in the People’s Liberation Army, Gen. Zhang Youxia, was placed under investigation, along with a deputy.

自这两位前部长倒台以来，还有更多高级指挥官被撤职和调查。今年1月，解放军最高级别的现役军官张又侠上将及其一名副手也被调查。

General Zhang and the deputy had both been members of the Central Military Commission, which has shrunk from seven members in 2022 to just two: the chairman, Mr. Xi, and Gen. Zhang Shengmin, who has been the top anticorruption investigator in the military.

张又侠及其副手曾是中央军委成员。目前，中央军委已从2022年的七人缩减至仅剩二人，包括主席习近平，以及一直主持军队反腐调查工作的张升民上将。

“All this really creates a tense atmosphere in the Chinese military,” said Mr. Yang, the military expert.

军事专家杨念祖表示：“这一切确实在中国军队内部营造了一种紧张的气氛。”

For more than four years, the final moments of China Eastern Flight 5735 remained shrouded in secrecy, with few clues to a baffling descent from 29,000 feet that left no survivors.

四年多来，中国东方航空5735号航班的最后时刻始终笼罩在重重迷雾中，外界几乎找不到任何线索，能够解释这架飞机为何会从约8840米高空突然急剧坠落，最终无人生还。

Now, new data from the Boeing 737 suggests the crash was no accident. The plane’s fatal dive was a deliberate act initiated from within the cockpit, aviation experts say, following what appears to have been a struggle for control of the aircraft.

如今，来自这架波音737的新数据表明，这场空难并非意外。航空专家表示，在驾驶舱内似乎发生了对飞机的控制权争夺之后，这架飞机的致命俯冲是有人蓄意为之。

The plane, which was operated by highly experienced pilots, had been traveling from Kunming, in southwestern China, to Guangzhou when it plunged almost vertically into a hillside, driving pieces of the aircraft as deep as 60 feet into the earth.

这架飞机由经验极为丰富的飞行员驾驶，当时正从中国西南部的昆明飞往广州，它几乎垂直俯冲撞上一处山坡，机体碎片嵌入地下约18米深。

The report by the National Transportation Safety Board shows that the dive began when a pilot or pilots pressed the cutoff levers — essentially, fuel switches — for both engines on the plane mid-flight, according to Jeff Guzzetti, a former accident investigator for the Federal Aviation Administration and the N.T.S.B.

国家运输安全委员会的报告显示，联邦航空局和国家运输安全委员会前事故调查员杰夫·古泽蒂称，俯冲始于一名或一名以上的飞行员在飞行途中按下两台发动机的切断手柄——即燃油开关。

Pressing down the two levers simultaneously stopped fuel flow to the engines and shut them down, Mr. Guzzetti said.

古泽蒂说，同时按下两个手柄切断了发动机的供油，导致发动机停止工作。

Almost immediately, data from the cockpit controls show, the plane entered a terrifying dive and spun in at least one 360-degree roll, Mr. Guzzetti said. The data shows that control wheels in the cockpit — one each in front of the captain and first officer — were turned to produce that roll, Mr. Guzzetti said. (The control wheels on a plane are a little like the steering wheels in a car, but they cause the plane to bank.)

古泽蒂称，驾驶舱控制装置的数据显示，几乎就在同一时刻，飞机进入了可怕的俯冲状态，并至少旋转了360度。古泽蒂说，数据显示驾驶舱内的两个驾驶杆——机长和副驾驶面前各一个——被转动，从而导致了翻滚。（飞机上的驾驶杆有点类似汽车的方向盘，但它们的作用是使飞机倾斜转弯。）

The herky-jerky, back-and-forth movement of the wheels suggests that at least two people were fighting to turn them in different directions. That could mean two pilots were struggling over a single wheel or that the captain and first officer were pushing in different directions on their own wheels, which are set to move in unison.

驾驶杆来回剧烈晃动表明，至少有两人在争夺控制权，试图将其转向不同方向。这可能意味着两名飞行员在争夺同一个驾驶杆，或者机长和副驾驶各自朝相反方向推动本人的驾驶杆——而两个驾驶杆本是联动设计的。

“Aggressive movements to pitch the airplane down and to roll it dramatically tell me this was an intentional act,” Mr. Guzzetti said.

古泽蒂表示：“强行将机头向下压并猛烈滚转的激烈动作告诉我，这是一次蓄意行为。”

The data about the crash, which was one of the deadliest in China in more than a decade, was released in response to a Freedom of Information Act request to the National Transportation Safety Board. The safety board had assisted in the investigation into the crash and helped retrieve the information from the plane’s flight data recorder, one of the aircraft’s “black boxes.”

这是中国十余年来伤亡最惨重的空难之一，相关数据是有人根据《信息自由法》的规定向国家运输安全委员会提出申请后公布的。该委员会曾协助调查此次坠机事故，并协助从飞行数据记录仪（即其中一个黑匣子）提取信息。

It was not immediately clear who submitted the request, or when the N.T.S.B. released the report, which can be found on its website.

目前尚不清楚是谁提交了这份申请，以及国家运输安全委员会何时公布了这份可在其官网查阅的报告。

The data is especially sensitive in China, where the government has released very little information from its own investigation into the crash. Xi Jinping, China’s most dominant leader in decades, has tightened controls on information, particularly when it comes to major disasters, which are seen as potential threats to social stability. In the days after the crash, Chinese officials censored reports and discussion about it.

这些数据在中国尤为敏感，因为中国政府几乎没有公布过自身对这起空难调查的任何信息。中国几十年来最强势的领导人习近平收紧了信息管控，尤其是重大灾难的相关信息——这类事件被视为对社会稳定的潜在威胁。在空难发生后的数日内，中国官方对相关报道和讨论实施了审查。

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Civil Aviation Administration did not respond to faxed questions about the new data. In 2024, the aviation administration said that the pilots and cabin crew had passed preflight medical checks on the day of the crash.

中国外交部和中国民用航空局均未回应通过传真发去的提问。2024年，民航局曾表示，飞行机组和客舱机组当日飞行前健康体检合格。

Mr. Guzzetti, the former N.T.S.B. accident investigator, said other aspects of the data supported the idea that there might have been a struggle between the two pilots for the flight controls.

国家运输安全委员会前事故调查员古泽蒂表示，其他方面的数据也支持两名飞行员曾争夺飞机控制权的判断。

“If you’re going to roll the airplane, it’s a smooth roll,” he said. “Here the control wheel is going back and forth and back and forth. That kind of indicates to me that there was a struggle.”

“如果要让飞机横滚，动作应该是流畅的，”他说。“但这里驾驶杆却是来回反复晃动。这在我看来，表明存在争夺。”

John Cox, an aviation safety consultant and retired airline pilot, said he agreed that the fuel cutoff and other commands to the aircraft came from the cockpit, possibly by a single pilot. “A pilot can shut off fuel to both engines at the same time, by moving the levers from run to cutoff,” he said.

航空安全顾问、退休民航机长约翰·考克斯表示，他认可燃油切断以及对飞机的其他操控指令均来自驾驶舱的判断，可能是一名飞行员单独所为。“飞行员可以通过将驾驶杆从运行位置切换至切断位置，同时关闭两台发动机的供油，”他说。

The irregular movement of the control wheel suggested a struggle, “but the evidence is not overwhelming or totally conclusive,” Mr. Cox added.

考克斯补充说，驾驶杆的不规则运动确实表明存在争夺，“但证据并不充分，也非完全确凿。”

The N.T.S.B. said that the flight data recorder stopped running while the plane was still in descent, at around 26,000 feet. Without the engines functioning, there was no electricity to power the recorder.

国家运输安全委员会表示，飞行数据记录仪在飞机仍处于下降过程中、约7925米的高度停止运转。由于发动机停止工作，记录仪失去了电力供应。

The recorder was severely damaged in the crash, the N.T.S.B. said. Information from the cockpit voice recorder, the plane’s other black box, was not released.

国家运输安全委员会表示，飞行数据记录仪在坠机中严重受损。飞机的另一个黑匣子——驾驶舱语音记录仪——的信息尚未公布。

The flight recorder also revealed that during the initial part of the dive, the plane was descending at as much as a 40-degree angle — far steeper than the few degrees needed for a normal descent, Mr. Guzzetti said.

古泽蒂表示，飞行数据记录仪还显示，在俯冲初始阶段，飞机的下降角度高达40度——正常下降仅需要几度。

“It’s the kind of movement you see aerobatic airplanes perform in an air show,” Mr. Guzzetti said. “It would have been a shock to the passengers because of the forces imparted on them from these drastic maneuvers.”

“这是你在航展上才会看到的特技动作，”古泽蒂说。“由于这些剧烈飞行动作产生的巨大作用力，乘客当时一定承受了极大的冲击。”

The gigantic Chinese lithium battery factory under construction for three years on the edge of Hungary’s second biggest city hasn’t started production yet.

这座巨型中国锂电池工厂位于匈牙利第二大城市郊外，已施工三年，目前尚未投产。

But it has already contributed to a political earthquake.

但它已然引发了一场政治地震。

As the biggest Chinese investment in Europe, the $8.5 billion project in the eastern city of Debrecen had been hailed by Hungary’s outgoing prime minister, Viktor Orban, as proof of the economic benefits of his close relations with China.

这座位于匈牙利东部城市德布勒森、耗资85亿美元的工厂是中国在欧洲最大的投资项目，曾被即将卸任的匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班誉为匈牙利与中国紧密关系带来经济利益的明证。

Instead, the factory helped bring about his downfall.

然而，这座工厂却成了导致欧尔班下台的原因之一。

In the April 12 election, Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party lost all its seats in Parliament from Debrecen, long a bastion of rock-solid support for the party, to the upstart Tisza movement, whose leader, Peter Magyar, is set to be sworn in as prime minister on Saturday in Budapest, the capital.

在4月12日的选举中，欧尔班领导的青民盟在德布勒森市的议会席位尽数落入新兴政党蒂萨党之手，德布勒森此前向来是青民盟的铁票仓。蒂萨党主席彼得·毛焦尔将于周六在首都布达佩斯宣誓就任总理。

Tisza railed against the risks of toxic waste and the lax enforcement record of environmental regulations by Mr. Orban’s government. That message resonated in a city where many voters strongly opposed the factory, worried about their health, water supply and the closure of a railway line that crosses land bought by the Chinese company.

蒂萨党猛烈抨击有毒废料风险，以及欧尔班政府在执行环保法规方面长期松懈的记录。这一主张在德布勒森引发强烈共鸣，当地大量选民坚决反对该工厂，担忧健康受损、耗尽水资源，还不满一条横穿中方购地的铁路线将被关停。

Mr. Magyar has now promised to “review,” but not halt the battery plant, as he tries to balance the demands of his voters for greater scrutiny of potential environmental hazards with his promises to revive Hungary’s sluggish economy.

毛焦尔如今承诺将“审查”这座电池厂，但不会叫停项目。他试图在两大诉求间寻求平衡——既要回应选民加强潜在环境风险监管的呼声，又要兑现自己提振匈牙利低迷经济的承诺。

Mr. Magyar has made clear that his initial priority is to soothe strained relations with the European Union and unblock nearly $20 billion in frozen funding. What to do about the factory, an emblem of Mr. Orban’s close economic and political relations with China, will be an early test of whether he wants to continue an effusive friendship that some see as at odds with the E.U.’s view of China as a “systemic rival.”

毛焦尔已明确表示，其首要任务是修复与欧盟的紧张关系，解冻近200亿美元的冻结资金。如何处置这座象征欧尔班时期匈中紧密政经关系的工厂将成为对他是否打算延续这种热情友谊的早期考验；一些人认为，这种友谊与欧盟将中国视为“系统性对手”的观点相悖。

上个月大选前，匈牙利凯斯特海伊市张贴的一张欧尔班的竞选海报。

The battery factory was built by Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, or CATL, a privately owned Chinese manufacturing giant, and the world’s biggest supplier of batteries for electric cars. It is designed to supply German carmakers, like Mercedes-Benz and B.M.W., whose plants in Hungary are pillars of the economy and depend on Chinese batteries for their electric vehicles.

该电池厂由中国民营制造业巨头、全球最大电动汽车电池供应商宁德时代投资建设，主要为梅赛德斯-奔驰和宝马等德国车企供货，这些车企在匈牙利设厂，是当地经济支柱，其电动车生产依赖中国电池。

Aside from the Chinese factory, “there was no other important campaign issue in Debrecen,” said Zsolt Porcsin, the editor in chief of Debreciner, an online news portal that reported regularly on street protests and lawsuits against the factory by angry residents.

德布勒森本地新闻网站德布勒森人的主编佐尔特·波尔钦表示：“除了这座中国工厂，德布勒森没有其他重要的竞选议题。”该网站长期报道愤怒的当地居民针对工厂的街头抗议与诉讼。

By contrast, the campaign by Mr. Orban, who cozied up to Russia despite Hungary’s membership in the European Union, focused on stoking fears of Ukraine. Tisza candidates attacked Mr. Orban’s party as out of touch with voter concerns and too focused on serving the interests of foreign powers like Russia, China and President Trump’s America.

相比之下，欧尔班的竞选活动侧重于煽动对乌克兰的恐惧——尽管匈牙利是欧盟成员国，他却与俄罗斯关系密切。蒂萨党候选人则抨击欧尔班的政党无视民众关切，一味迎合俄罗斯、中国以及特朗普领导下的美国等外国势力的利益。。

Local hostility to the Chinese battery plant “definitely hurt us in the election,” Laszlo Papp, the mayor of Debrecen and a member of Fidesz, said in an interview. “We did not talk about issues that people were interested in.”

德布勒森市长、青民盟成员拉兹洛·帕普在采访中承认，当地民众对中资电池厂的抵触情绪“确实让我们在选举中受挫”，“我们当时没有谈论民众真正关心的议题”。

德布勒森市市长、青民盟成员拉斯洛·帕普在办公室接受采访。他表示，当地民众对该工厂的反对“无疑在选举中对我们造成了不利影响”。

An opinion poll of 1,000 residents, taken at the start of the project in late January 2023, showed that a majority thought the battery plant would be harmful.

2023年1月底项目启动时，一项针对1000名当地居民的民调显示，多数人认为该电池厂将带来危害。

CATL mostly ignored that public hostility.

宁德时代却基本无视了这种公众敌意。

The company’s approach was shaped by the way things work in China, said Viktor Eszterhai, a China expert at the Ludovika University of Public Service in Budapest, who has studied Hungary’s emergence as a European hub for battery and electric vehicle manufacturing.

布达佩斯路德维卡公共服务大学中国问题专家维克托·埃斯特海伊长期研究匈牙利成为欧洲电池与电动车制造中心的历程，他指出，宁德时代的做法深受中国运作模式影响。

“They thought: ‘We agreed with the government. We don’t need to deal with what local people think,’” he said.

“他们的想法是：‘我们已经和政府达成一致，无需顾及当地民众的意见，’”他说。

CATL, in response to written questions, said it could not comment on “political statements” by the Fidesz mayor or Tisza members of Parliament. It declined to address complaints from residents that the company had ignored their concerns. It said it had tried to “become a good neighbor” by supporting a local pediatric clinic, a flower carnival and other events.

针对书面问询，宁德时代回应称，无法对青民盟籍市长或蒂萨党议员的“政治言论”置评，也拒绝回应居民关于其无视居民关切的投诉。该公司称，已通过资助当地儿科诊所、花卉嘉年华等活动，努力“成为好邻居”。

CATL still needs final permits before it can start production. Since the election, it has rushed to build bridges with Hungary’s post-Orban political order.

宁德时代仍需获得最终许可才能投产。自选举以来，该公司正加紧与匈牙利后欧尔班时代的政治格局建立联系。

匈牙利德布勒森的一座教堂。这座城市曾是欧尔班所在政党的铁票仓。

Zsolt Tarkanyi, one of Tisza’s victorious Debrecen candidates and a loud critic of the factory during the campaign, said the company had contacted him and other Tisza legislators soon after Mr. Orban’s defeat.

蒂萨党在德布勒森胜选的候选人之一、竞选期间强烈反对建厂的佐尔特·陶尔卡尼透露，欧尔班败选后不久，宁德时代便联系了他及其他蒂萨党议员。

Last week, senior CATL executives from China flew to Budapest for a hastily arranged meeting with Hungary’s incoming Minister of Economy and Energy, Istvan Kapitany, who has pledged to review state subsidies given to foreign companies.

上周，宁德时代中国总部高管飞抵布达佩斯，紧急会见即将上任的匈牙利经济与能源部长伊斯特凡·卡皮塔尼，卡皮塔尼此前曾承诺将重新审查给予外国企业的国家补贴。

In the case of CATL, Mr. Orban’s government had promised subsidies that the company says are worth around $350 million. Hungarian media reports have put total state aid, including tax breaks and other favors, at over $900 million. The terms of the original deal in 2022 between CATL and the Hungarian government are secret.

欧尔班政府曾向宁德时代承诺提供补贴，据该公司称，补贴金额约为3.5亿美元，匈牙利媒体则报道称，含税收减免和其他优惠在内，总补贴额超9亿美元。宁德时代与匈牙利政府2022年达成的原始协议条款属于保密内容。

Mr. Tarkanyi said in an interview that under Mr. Orban, battery factories already up and running in Hungary, including those of South Korean and Japanese companies, “basically did whatever they wanted.”

陶尔卡尼在采访中表示，欧尔班执政时期，匈牙利境内已投产的电池工厂——包括韩国和日本企业的工厂——“基本上为所欲为”。

This, he added, “would come to an end.”

他还说，这种情况“将彻底终结”。

He said battery factories would now be subjected to rigorous inspections, heavy fines or suspended operations, in the case of repeated violations. A South Korean plant already operating for years has been repeatedly fined modest amounts.

陶尔卡尼称，今后所有电池厂都将面临严格审查，若屡次违规，将面临重罚或停产。目前，该国一家运营多年的韩资工厂已多次被处以小额罚款。

Hungary under Mr. Orban became China’s most reliable friend in the European Union, embracing an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership,” a term adopted during a 2024 visit to Budapest by the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.

欧尔班执政时期，匈牙利成为中国在欧盟最可靠的盟友，双方建立了“全天候全面战略伙伴关系”， 这一表述源自中国国家主席习近平2024年访问布达佩斯期间。

That partnership was a sharp divergence from the E.U.’s increasingly jaundiced view of China because of a torrent of Chinese exports to Europe that threaten European manufacturers and its support for Russia in the war in Ukraine.

这一伙伴关系与欧盟对中国的日益负面的看法形成鲜明对比：欧盟不满中国对欧出口激增冲击本土制造业，也不满中国在俄乌冲突中对俄罗斯的支持。

Wary of E.U. hostility, Beijing in turn has looked to strongman European leaders like Mr. Orban in Hungary and President Aleksandar Vucic in neighboring Serbia.

出于对欧盟敌意的警惕，北京转而寻求与匈牙利的欧尔班，邻国塞尔维亚的武契奇等欧洲强势领导人建立关系。

Their countries seemed to offer a space free of criticism and, in the case of Hungary, a back door to the European market in the event of high E.U. tariffs on electric vehicles, batteries and other goods made in China. Hungary is the largest single destination for Chinese investments in Europe, with several battery factories and a large BYD electric vehicle plant.

这些国家为中国提供了免受批评的合作空间；若欧盟对中国电动车、电池等产品加征高额关税，匈牙利可成为中国产品进入欧洲市场的后门。匈牙利是中国在欧洲投资最多的国家，境内已有多家电池厂及一家比亚迪大型电动车工厂。

But voters in Debrecen showed the limits of Beijing’s approach.

但德布勒森选民的态度揭示了北京这一策略的局限性。

“Sooner or later they will realize this is not a good strategy,” said Agnes Szunomar, a China expert at Corvinus University in Budapest. “It works in authoritarian regimes where one man stays in power for decades, but in democracies it shouldn’t work.”

布达佩斯考文纽斯大学中国问题专家阿格妮丝·舒诺马尔表示：“他们迟早会意识到，这并不是一个好策略。这套模式在领导人可掌权数十年的专制政权可能奏效，但在民主国家，它是行不通的。”

For Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party, it didn’t.

对欧尔班领导的青民盟而言，事实也确实如此。

尤迪特·塞曼在工厂附近的家中，她说工厂让这里变得“不再宜居”。

Judit Szeman, whose family farm sits just a few hundred yards from the hulking factory, said she had voted for Fidesz in the past but lost all trust in Mr. Orban because of his support for the Chinese project.

尤迪特·谢曼的家庭农场距这座庞大工厂仅数百米。她表示，自己过去一直支持青民盟，但因为欧尔班力挺这一中国项目，她已对他彻底失去信任。

Mr. Orban’s crushing defeat has given her some hope that the new government might start enforcing environmental regulations, but she’s not dropping a years’ old legal case that she and other residents filed to challenge the factory’s environmental permit.

欧尔班的惨败让她看到一丝希望，新政府或许会严格执行环保法规。但她仍未撤回与其他居民数年前提起的质疑工厂环保许可的诉讼。

Her 83-year-old mother refuses to leave, she said, “so we have to keep going,” even though, she added, “this place is becoming unlivable.”

她说，她83岁的母亲不愿离开家园，“所以我们必须坚持下去”，尽管“这里正变得越来越不宜居”。

Floodlit at night, the factory is so bright that it makes sleeping difficult, she said, and, though not yet producing, emits strange grinding noises “like 10 tractors.”

她抱怨，工厂夜间灯火通明，让人难以入眠；虽然尚未投产，却持续发出奇怪的轰鸣噪音，“像有10台拖拉机一样”。

Eva Kozma, a Debrecen resident who has been organizing protests against the battery plant for years, said she was disappointed that Tisza has not come out in favor of shutting the factory down but still thinks that might happen.

几年来组织反工厂抗议活动的德布勒森居民埃娃·科兹马表示，她对蒂萨党未明确表态关停工厂感到失望，但仍认为关停存在可能性。

“People say the factory has been built so we can’t do anything,” she said. “But I tell them: ‘Would you have ever thought that Viktor Orban who had all the money and power would ever lose an election?’”

“人们说‘工厂都建好了，我们无能为力’，”她说。“但我想反问：‘当初谁能想到，拥有大量金钱和权力的欧尔班会输掉选举呢？’”

Health officials in a growing list of countries scrambled on Thursday to track people connected to a deadly outbreak of the hantavirus on a cruise ship. The World Health Organization also predicted a “limited” spread of the virus if public health measures were enacted.

随着越来越多国家将汉坦病毒列入关注名单，卫生官员周四紧急行动，追踪与一艘邮轮的致命汉坦病毒疫情相关的接触者。世界卫生组织也预测，如果采取公共卫生措施，该病毒将只会“有限”传播。

“This is not Covid, this is not influenza,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the W.H.O.’s head of epidemic and pandemic preparedness, said on Thursday at a news conference in Geneva. “This spreads very, very differently.”

“这不是新冠，这不是流感，”世界卫生组织流行病和大流行病防范负责人玛丽亚·范·科霍夫博士周四在日内瓦的新闻发布会上表示。“它的传播方式非常、非常不同。”

Human-to-human transmission of the hantavirus, a family of viruses carried by rodents, is rare. The Andes strain of the hantavirus, which has been confirmed in cases tied to the cruise ship, is the only one known to spread from human to human, but it is transmitted primarily through close personal contact, Dr. Van Kerkhove said.

汉坦病毒是由啮齿动物携带的一类病毒，人传人极为罕见。范·科霍夫说，已确认与该邮轮病例相关的安第斯株汉坦病毒是目前已知唯一能人传人的毒株，但主要通过密切个人接触传播。

“This is not the start of an epidemic, this is not the start of a pandemic,” she said.

“这不是疫情的开始，也不是大流行的开始，”她说。

Since April 11, three passengers who were aboard the MV Hondius, a Dutch-flagged cruise ship, have died and at least five other people have been sickened after showing symptoms of the hantavirus, according to the W.H.O. Health officials have confirmed five cases of the hantavirus on the ship so far, all of them involving the Andes strain, which is primarily found in South America.

据世界卫生组织通报，自4月11日以来，曾登上荷兰旗邮轮宏迪号的三名乘客死亡，至少另有五人在出现汉坦病毒症状后患病。卫生官员迄今已在船上确认五例汉坦病毒病例，均为安第斯株，该毒株主要见于南美洲。

People in several countries are now being tested or monitored after possibly being in contact with the virus.

多个国家目前正在对可能接触过该病毒的人员进行检测或观察。

Three people in the Netherlands who developed symptoms after coming into contact with an infected person on a plane were tested for the virus, Dutch public health officials said. Two of the results came back negative, and the third was still being analyzed.

荷兰公共卫生官员称，三名在飞机上接触过感染者后出现症状的荷兰人已接受病毒检测。其中两人结果为阴性，第三人的结果仍在分析中。

Earlier, the Dutch health ministry said a flight attendant was undergoing testing for the hantavirus at a hospital on Thursday after she came into contact with an infected person.

此前，荷兰卫生部称，一名空乘人员周四因接触过感染者，正在医院接受汉坦病毒检测。

Dutch media outlets reported that the flight attendant worked for KLM Royal Dutch Airlines. The company declined to comment, citing privacy considerations for its employees, and the Dutch health ministry did not specify whether the two negative results included the flight attendant.

荷兰媒体报道，该空乘人员供职于荷兰皇家航空。该公司以保护员工隐私为由拒绝置评，荷兰卫生部也未说明两个阴性结果是否包括这名空乘人员。

The authorities did not say if the flight attendant was showing symptoms, or whether she had worked on a flight that one of the victims of the cruise ship outbreak had briefly boarded the day before dying. That victim, a 69-year-old Dutch woman, died on April 26 in Johannesburg, South Africa.

当局未说明该空乘人员是否出现症状，也未透露她是否曾在一名邮轮疫情遇难者死亡前一天值飞过该乘客搭乘的航班。那名遇难者是一名69岁的荷兰女性，于4月26日在南非约翰内斯堡去世。

On Thursday evening, Tedros Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization, said in a message that the flight attendant, who has been reported to have symptoms, had tested negative on two tests. The news was first reported in the Inside Medicine newsletter. The result is reassuring because it suggests the virus is not being transmitted in ways beyond what scientists have observed in prior outbreaks. Mr. Ghebreyesus did caution, however, that the virus can have a long incubation time.

周四晚些时候，世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞在一则消息中表示，据报有症状的这名空乘人员两次检测结果均为阴性。该消息最早由《Inside Medicine》通讯报道。这一结果令人安心，表明病毒并未以超出科学家此前在历次暴发中所观察到的方式传播。不过谭德塞也提醒，该病毒的潜伏期可能较长。

周二，宏迪号邮轮在佛得角附近海域航行。

The day before she died, the Dutch woman boarded KLM Flight 592 from Johannesburg to Amsterdam and spent about an hour on the plane, according to the airline. Barbara de Beukelaar, a passenger on that flight, said in a phone interview that the woman had been helped onto the plane in a wheelchair.

据航空公司称，这名荷兰女性在去世前一天登上了从约翰内斯堡飞往阿姆斯特丹的荷航592航班，在飞机上停留约一小时。当时同机乘客芭芭拉·德·博伊克拉在电话采访中表示，她是被用轮椅推上飞机的。

Airline staff members tended to the woman and decided to remove her ahead of the nearly 12-hour flight’s departure because of her condition, according to KLM.

据荷航称，机组人员照顾了这名女性，并因其健康状况决定在近12小时的航班起飞前让她下机。

“Nobody on board thought that they were dealing with a contagious virus,” Ms. de Beukelaar said.

“机上没有人认为他们面对的是一种传染性病毒，”德·博伊克拉说。

KLM said it had handed over the flight’s passenger list to Dutch health authorities for contact tracing.

荷航表示已将该航班的乘客名单交给荷兰卫生部门用于接触者追踪。

The Hondius — carrying almost 150 passengers and crew from almost two dozen countries — was on its way Thursday to the Canary Islands after three people who may have been infected with the virus were evacuated to the Netherlands.

周四，载有来自20个左右国家近150名乘客和船员的宏迪号邮轮在三名可能感染病毒的人员被撤离至荷兰后，正驶向加那利群岛。

The ship will not dock in the Canary Islands, but will remain anchored offshore until passengers are transferred by boat to Tenerife for evacuation flights to their countries, the Canary Islands authorities said. The ship is expected to arrive there on Sunday.

加那利群岛当局表示，邮轮不会在加那利群岛靠岸，而是会停泊在近海，直到乘客通过小艇转运至特内里费岛，再搭乘撤离航班返回各自国家。邮轮预计将于周日抵达该区域。

Oceanwide Expeditions, the Dutch company operating the cruise, said in a statement on Thursday that two of the people evacuated to the Netherlands were crew members with symptoms, a 56-year-old British national and a 41-year-old Dutch citizen.

运营该邮轮的荷兰泛海探险周四发表声明称，被撤离至荷兰的两人为有症状的船员，分别是一名56岁的英国籍人士和一名41岁的荷兰籍人士。

A 65-year-old German woman without symptoms was also evacuated. She is undergoing tests in Germany, according to Düsseldorf University Hospital.

一名65岁无症状的德国女性也被撤离。据杜塞尔多夫大学医院消息，她正在德国接受检测。

Genetic sequencing of samples in South Africa suggests that the virus is nearly identical to the version seen in Argentina and has not mutated in ways that would make it a greater threat, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. Dr. De Oliveira was not involved in the work but said the results had been presented to an expert group of which he is a member.

南非斯泰伦博斯大学流行病应对与创新中心主任图利奥·德·奥利维拉表示，南非的基因测序结果显示，该病毒与阿根廷发现的毒株几乎完全相同，并未发生会使其威胁性增加的突变。德·奥利维拉博士虽未参与该测序工作，但表示结果已提交给他所属的一个专家组。

Tracing everyone who may have come in contact with those sickened by the virus could prove challenging.

追踪所有可能接触过感染者的工作可能极具挑战性。

On April 24, 30 people from at least 12 countries left the ship in St. Helena, a remote island in the South Atlantic. That was more than a week before the first confirmed case of the virus was reported, according to Oceanwide.

4月24日，来自至少12个国家的30人在南大西洋偏远岛屿圣赫勒拿岛下船。据泛海探险称，这比首例确诊病例报告时间早了一个多星期。

The company said it had contacted the people who disembarked in St. Helena. At least one of them, a man in Switzerland, was receiving care in a hospital in Zurich and had tested positive for the virus, according to the W.H.O.

该公司表示已联系到在圣赫勒拿岛下船的人员。据世界卫生组织通报，其中至少一人是一名在瑞士苏黎世医院接受治疗的男子，检测结果呈阳性。

“We are working to establish details of all passengers and crew who embarked and disembarked” the ship since March 20, Oceanwide said.

泛海探险表示：“我们正在努力确定自3月20日以来所有登船和离船的乘客和船员的详细信息。”

In Singapore, two people who had been on the ship were in isolation and being tested for the virus, according to the National Center for Infectious Diseases. In Denmark, local health authorities said a Danish passenger of the ship who had not been tested for the hantavirus was self-isolating without any symptoms.

新加坡国家传染病中心表示，两名曾登上该船的新加坡人在隔离中接受病毒检测。在丹麦，当地卫生部门称，一名未接受汉坦病毒检测的丹麦乘客正在无症状自我隔离。

A French national who came into contact with one of the cruise passengers on an April 25 flight to Johannesburg from St. Helena island exhibited mild symptoms and is in isolation, French officials said on Thursday. That person is also undergoing diagnostic testing, the officials said. Seven other French nationals on the flight are being monitored.

法国官员周四表示，一名在4月25日从圣赫勒拿岛飞往约翰内斯堡的航班上接触过邮轮乘客的法国籍人士出现轻微症状，目前正在隔离。该官员称，此人正在接受诊断检测。同机另有七名法国籍人士正在接受观察。

In the United States, residents in five states were being monitored for potential hantavirus infections after being on the ship, officials said. None of them had symptoms, the officials said.

美国官员表示，来自五个州的居民因曾登上该船正在接受潜在汉坦病毒感染的观察。这些人均无症状。

While actors like to hold forth about pursuing challenging roles, Tony Leung Chiu-wai is quick to say that’s not how he operates.

很多演员都喜欢谈论追求有挑战性的角色，梁朝伟却直言，他不是那样的。

“I’m the kind of actor who loves to stay in my comfort zone,” said a jovial Leung, 63, speaking in English during a recent video call from his home in Hong Kong. “As you can see, in my past 20 years I mostly worked with one director, Wong Kar-wai. That makes me feel very safe.”

“我是那种喜欢待在舒适区的演员，”63岁的梁朝伟用英语愉快地说道。近日，他在香港家中接受了视频采访。“正如你所见，过去20年我基本上只跟一位导演合作，那就是王家卫。这让我感到非常安心。”

And yet, the star, whose longing, expressive eyes have enamored cinephiles in landmark romantic dramas like Wong’s “In the Mood for Love,” has recently taken on distinctly new characters in movies far from home.

梁朝伟曾凭借《花样年华》等经典爱情片中深情而富有表现力的眼神令影迷倾倒，最近却在远离故土的影片中尝试了截然不同的角色。

梁朝伟在2000年的经典爱情片《花样年华》中。

The latest, “Silent Friend,” due Friday from the Hungarian director Ildiko Enyedi, is Leung’s first appearance in a fully European production. The story follows three people in different eras who encounter the same ginkgo tree. Leung’s character, Dr. Tony Wong, is a renowned neuroscientist on a work trip in present-day Germany.

他最新的作品《寂静的朋友》周五上映，该片由匈牙利导演伊尔蒂科·茵叶蒂执导。这也是梁朝伟首次出演一部纯欧洲制作的电影。影片讲述了三个不同时代的人与同一棵银杏树相遇的故事。梁朝伟饰演的王博士是一位著名的神经科学家，故事背景设定在当代德国，他来这里出差。

Wearing a white sweater and glasses during the interview, Leung still resembled an elegant scholar. Behind him a display cabinet held a collection of exquisite vases. It’s a Zen space.

采访时，梁朝伟身着白色毛衣、戴着眼镜，依然散发着儒雅学者的气质。在他身后的陈列柜里摆放着一组精致的花瓶，整个空间禅意盎然。

His selectiveness has nothing to do with the geographical location of the job, but instead his compatibility with the filmmaker. “I pick every project because of the person, not the story,” he said of agreeing to work with Enyedi. “I trust my instinct rather than my head.”

他对作品的挑选并不取决于工作地点，而是取决于与导演的契合度。“我接片都是因为人，而不是故事，”他谈及跟茵叶蒂合作的缘由时说道。“我相信直觉，而不是理性分析。”

This approach has produced a remarkable body of work, much of which has been screening this week at Film at Lincoln Center as part of a career retrospective titled “The Grandmaster.”

正是这种接片之道为他积累了一批令人瞩目的作品，其中多部电影出现在林肯中心电影协会本周为其举办的“一代宗师：梁朝伟”回顾展映上。

Leung’s naturalistic acting style first began to take shape while working with the Taiwanese director Hou Hsiao-Hsien on “A City of Sadness” (1989), where an actress without formal training impressed him. “I told Hou Hsiao-Hsien, ‘I want to act like her someday,’” he recalled.

梁朝伟的自然主义表演风格成型于与台湾导演侯孝贤合作《悲情城市》（1989）期间。当时一位没有受过专业训练的女演员给他留下了深刻印象。“我跟侯孝贤说，我以后也想像她那样演戏，”他回忆道。

He finally felt he’d achieved such realism when he saw his long, dialogue-free scene in “Days of Being Wild” (1991), his first film with Wong. His loyalty to the director was born.

直到在《阿飞正传》（1991年）中看到自己那场长达数分钟、几乎没有台词的戏，他终于觉得自己达到那种自然的表演境界。那是他与王家卫的第一次合作，也由此开启了他对这位导演的忠诚。

When the director Destin Daniel Cretton reached out to ask him to play the antagonist in the 2021 Marvel action saga “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” a skeptical Leung took three months to consider whether to call back. “I always have self-doubt — ‘Am I good enough to do this?’ Especially such a big production, it made me a bit stressed,” he said.

当导演德斯汀·丹尼尔·克雷顿邀他出演2021年的漫威动作大片《尚气与十环传奇》中的反派时，心存疑虑的梁朝伟整整考虑了三个月是否回电话。“我总是自我怀疑——‘我够格吗？’尤其是这么大的制作，让我有点压力，”他说。

One day, Leung’s wife nudged him to finally get in touch with Cretton. The two met on a video call that offered the actor little in the way of information about the story or his role.

一天，在太太的催促下，他才终于同克雷顿取得联系。两人进行了视频通话，导演几乎没有透露任何关于剧情或角色的信息。

“For Marvel movies, they cannot tell you anything. Everything is under wraps. What I knew from the director is that my character had many layers, and that’s it,” Leung said laughing.

“漫威电影什么都不能说。一切都是保密的。我从导演那里了解到的只是我的角色有很多层次，仅此而已，”梁朝伟笑着说。

Still, he agreed to work with Cretton solely based on how “laid-back” he found the director. Leung thought he could perhaps trust the filmmaker. “That’s the first movie I really stepped out of my comfort zone for,” he added. The experience, Leung said, reminded him of playing martial arts heroes with superpowers in Chinese-language wuxia television shows early in his career.

尽管如此，他同意与克雷顿合作，仅仅是因为他觉得这位导演“很随和”。梁朝伟想，或许他可以信任这位导演。“那是我第一次真正走出舒适区的电影，”他补充道。梁朝伟说，这次经历让他想起了自己早年在华语武侠电视剧中扮演身怀绝技的武林高手的时光。

Marvel Studios/Disney-Marvel Studios, via Associated Press

The video interviews Leung did to promote “Shang-Chi” inspired Enyedi to write “Silent Friend” with him as the lead.

他们第一次见面时，梁朝伟问茵叶蒂，佛教是否影响了《寂静的朋友》的创作。在影片中，他的角色与那棵银杏树产生了一种精神上的联结。这份对影片哲学意涵的好奇令导演深感欣慰。梁朝伟说她当时没有直接给出答案。但茵叶蒂表示，佛教对她来说意义重大，植物交流的研究也是如此To convincingly transform into a neuroscientist, Leung’s preparation was fiercely intellectual. Enyedi assigned him several heady books, including the eco-philosophy tome “Ways of Being” by James Bridle.

为了令人信服地诠释一位神经科学家，梁朝伟做了大量的知识准备工作。茵叶蒂给他推荐了多本艰深之作，其中包括詹姆斯·布赖德尔所著的生态哲学著作《存在之道》(Ways of Being)。

“I try to have a beginner’s mind on every movie,” Leung said. “I don’t treat myself as a professional actor. Really experienced actors miss a lot of things when they think, ‘Oh I went through it before, I know what it is.’ No! Every time is different.”

“我尽量在每部电影里保持初学者心态，”梁朝伟说。“我不把自己当成专业演员。真正经验丰富的演员，往往会错过很多东西，因为他们会想，‘哦，我以前经历过，我知道是怎么回事。’不是这样的！每次都是不同的。”

Another of Leung’s frequent collaborators, the Hong Kong action master John Woo, seconded Enyedi’s thoughts about the actor’s natural sensibilities. Woo, however, harnessed those attributes for high-octane pictures like “Hard Boiled” (1992) and “Bullet in the Head” (1990).

梁朝伟的另一位老搭档、香港动作片大师吴宇森也认同茵叶蒂对梁朝伟自然感知力的看法。不过，吴宇森是在《辣手神探》（1992）和《喋血街头》（1990）这类高燃动作片中利用这些特质的。

“Tony is just like me, very quiet and very introverted. He has such wonderful eyes that speak,” Woo said via email. “You don’t need to hear him say any words but with just his gaze, he is able to convey such a strong emotion.”

“梁朝伟跟我很像，非常安静，非常内向。他有一双会说话的漂亮眼睛，”吴宇森通过电子邮件表示。“你不需要听他说话，仅凭一个眼神，他就能传递出强烈的情感。”

Leung’s eyes are often the focal point when people discuss his onscreen allure. Their piercing depth, the actor said, comes from a “difficult but happy childhood.”

人们在讨论梁朝伟的银幕魅力时，他的眼睛往往是焦点。这位演员说，那双眼睛的穿透力源自一个“艰难但快乐的童年”。

“I didn’t quite talk to others, I tried to isolate myself because I didn’t want to talk about my family,” he continued. “I kept everything inside. I never showed emotion to anyone until one day when I learned acting, and I found a way to express myself without being shy.”

“我小时候不太和别人交流，会把自己封闭起来，因为我不想聊我的家庭，”他继续说道。“我把一切都放在心里，不向任何人表露情感。直到后来学表演，找到了一种不用害羞就能表达自己的方式。”

Playing someone else provided an outlet for his internal pain. “I have a lot of suppressed feelings and emotions, and that makes my eyes have a lot of things inside them,” Leung added.

饰演他人为他内心的痛苦提供了出口。“我有很多被压抑的情感，这让我的眼神里有很多东西，”他补充道。

He’s won dozens of prizes over 40 years, including the Golden Lion for Lifetime Achievement in 2023 from the Venice Film Festival. At the ceremony Leung was visibly moved. But ultimately accolades, he said, feel more like a burden.

他在40年的演艺生涯中获得了数十个奖项，包括2023年威尼斯电影节颁发的终身成就奖。在那次颁奖典礼上，梁朝伟显然被感动了。但他说，荣誉归根到底更像是一种负担。

“I never put any trophies in my house, I put all of them inside a cabinet. I don’t want to see them, because in every project I want to have a beginner’s mind,” he said.

“我从不把奖座放在家里，而是全都放进一个柜子里。我不想看见它们，因为在每部戏里，我都想保持初学者心态，”他说。

In the final stage of his acting career, as he thinks of this period, Leung said he felt relaxed, especially after “Silent Friend,” which he described as an “inspiring journey” unlike anything he’s experienced before. Still, that doesn’t mean he wants to take on more roles now.

梁朝伟将这一阶段视为演艺生涯的最后篇章，他表示现在感到轻松，尤其是在拍完《寂静的朋友》之后，他称之为一次“启发性的旅程”，与他以往的任何经历都截然不同。尽管如此，这并不意味着他现在想接更多的角色。

“I cannot say I just do it for fun, but if things come to me and I can help some really intellectual directors like Ildiko fulfill their dreams, then I’ll do it,” he said.

“我不能说我拍戏只是为了好玩，但如果机会来了，能够帮助像伊尔蒂科这样真正有才华的导演实现她们的梦想，那我就会去做，”他说。

For all the credit Leung denies himself, those who know him well don’t hesitate to praise him.

尽管梁朝伟对自己的成就始终轻描淡写，与他相熟的人毫不吝惜赞美之词。

“Everyone considers Daniel Day-Lewis to be one of the most talented actors who ever lived, and in Hong Kong we have Tony Leung, that’s how great he is,” Woo said.

“大家都说丹尼尔·戴-刘易斯是史上最伟大的演员之一，而在香港，我们有梁朝伟——他就是那个级别的存在，”吴宇森说。

The Trump administration has approved sales of thousands of air defense interceptor missiles and related services valued at $17 billion to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, according to State Department and congressional officials.

据美国国务院和国会官员透露，特朗普政府已批准向科威特、阿拉伯联合酋长国和巴林出售价值170亿美元的数千枚防空拦截导弹及相关服务。

The exports were approved despite alarm among some Pentagon officials over the dwindling U.S. stockpiles of such missiles, which have been expended in large numbers during the war against Iran.

尽管五角大楼部分官员对此类导弹的美国库存日益减少感到担忧——这些导弹在对伊朗战争中已被大量消耗，出口仍获得批准。

The State Department gave formal notification of the sales to Congress last Friday. But it did not announce them in public statements, as it did with other arms sales to Israel and Gulf Arab nations that it authorized that day under an emergency provision.

国务院上周五已正式通知国会有关这些军售，但并未像同一天根据紧急条款授权的对以色列和海湾阿拉伯国家的其他军售那样通过公开声明予以宣布。

The packages of sales announced in news releases on Friday were valued at more than $8.6 billion, and the State Department said it was bypassing congressional approval to expedite them because of an emergency in the Middle East.

上周五新闻稿中公布的军售方案总价值超过86亿美元，国务院表示，鉴于中东紧急局势，将绕过国会批准程序以加快交付。

In total, the State Department authorized about $25.7 billion in sales last Friday.

国务院上周五总共授权了约257亿美元的军售。

The $17.1 billion of interceptor missiles and related services being sold to Kuwait, Bahrain and the Emirates are expansions of three earlier sales approved by Congress — a package in 2019 in the case of Bahrain, and in 2024 for Kuwait and the Emirates. The State Department generally does not issue news releases about expansions of previous sales.

此次向科威特、巴林和阿联酋出售的价值171亿美元的拦截导弹及相关服务是对国会此前批准的三笔军售的扩展——巴林为2019年的一揽子协议，科威特和阿联酋则为2024年。国务院通常不会就此前军售的扩展发布新闻稿。

“These countries have deployed U.S. defense systems successfully to defend their territory and people, Americans overseas and U.S. bases,” the State Department said in a statement to The New York Times after it was asked about the sales. “This emergency action sends our partners a clear message we stand with them.”

在被问及此次军售时，国务院在给《纽约时报》的一份声明中称：“这些国家已成功部署美国防御系统来保卫其领土和人民、海外美国人以及美国基地。这一紧急行动向我们的伙伴发出明确信息，我们与他们站在一起。”

The State Department did not provide a breakdown of how many interceptor missiles each country would receive. A congressional official said the dollar values were $9.3 billion from Kuwait, $6.25 billion from the Emirates and $1.625 billion from Bahrain.

国务院未详细列出每个国家将获得多少拦截导弹。一名国会官员表示，科威特购入的导弹总价为93亿美元，阿联酋为62.5亿美元，巴林为16.25亿美元。

The letter to Congress from the State Department lists two types of Patriot interceptor missiles in the orders from each country, according to a copy obtained by The Times.

据《纽约时报》获得的一份副本显示，国务院致国会的信函中列出了每个国家订单中的两种爱国者拦截导弹类型。

The three orders amount to about 4,250 missiles, based on the fact that a single interceptor missile costs about $4 million. That is in addition to another large order: Last Friday, in one of its news releases on the $8.6 billion in new emergency sales, the State Department said Qatar was ordering $4 billion of interceptor missiles, which equates to about 1,000 units. It would take years to produce those amounts.

根据单枚拦截导弹成本约400万美元计算，三笔订单总计约4250枚导弹。此外还有另一笔大额订单：上周五，在公布的86亿美元新型紧急军售中，国务院表示卡塔尔订购了40亿美元的拦截导弹，约1000枚。这些导弹的生产将耗时数年。

The Patriot air defense system is made by Raytheon, and that company and Lockheed Martin produce missiles for it.

爱国者防空系统由雷神公司制造，该公司与洛克希德·马丁公司共同生产其导弹。

Since President Trump and Israel started a new war against Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. military has used more than 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles, according to internal Defense Department estimates, putting a significant dent into global American stockpiles. The Times first reported last month on the extent to which the United States has used up critical munitions.

自特朗普总统和以色列于2月28日对伊朗发动新战争以来，据国防部内部估算，美军已使用超过1300枚爱国者拦截导弹，这对美国全球库存造成了重大消耗。《纽约时报》上月首次报道了美国关键弹药消耗的程度。

During the war, Gulf Arab countries have fired about 600 Patriot interceptor missiles to defend themselves against Iranian missiles and drones.

战争期间，海湾阿拉伯国家已发射约600枚爱国者拦截导弹，以防御伊朗导弹和无人机袭击。

上个月，巴林锡特拉，一处社区遭拦截无人机袭击受损。巴林正从美国购买价值16.25亿美元的拦截导弹及相关服务。

American companies produce more than 600 Patriot interceptor missiles per year. That means the United States and its Gulf Arab partners have burned through three years’ worth of such missiles in the war. Officials in the region have been pressing American counterparts to expedite shipments and to consider drawing from U.S. stockpiles to do so.

美国公司每年生产超过600枚爱国者拦截导弹。这意味着美国及其海湾阿拉伯伙伴在战争中已消耗了三年产量的此类导弹。该地区官员一直敦促美国方面加快交付，并考虑从美国库存中调拨。

Patriot air defense launchers and interceptor missiles are among the most coveted weapons systems in the world. Ukraine, for instance, has asked the United States for the systems throughout its defensive war against Russia. The Trump administration has announced a plan for companies to increase total production of interceptor missiles to 2,000 units per year, but that change would take time.

爱国者防空发射器和拦截导弹是世界上最受追捧的武器系统之一。例如，乌克兰在其抵御俄罗斯的战争中曾请求美国提供该系统。特朗普政府已宣布计划将拦截导弹年总产量提高至2000枚，但这一调整需要时间。

The administration now has to make hard decisions on allocation of missiles. Some Pentagon officials are worried that the military’s readiness for conflicts has been compromised by the low U.S. supplies. It has had to divert munitions from U.S. commands in Asia and Europe to the Middle East, despite a widespread assessment in Washington that China — with the fastest-growing military in the world — poses the biggest security challenge to the United States.

政府现在必须对导弹的分配做出艰难决定。部分五角大楼官员担心，美军因库存不足而影响了战备能力。尽管华盛顿普遍认为中国——拥有全球增长最快的军队——对美国构成最大的安全挑战，但美军仍不得不将弹药从亚洲和欧洲司令部转移至中东。

When Raytheon and Lockheed Martin send interceptor missiles rolling off production lines to the dozen or so foreign customers that have signed contracts for them, that means fewer munitions for the United States.

当雷神公司和洛克希德·马丁公司的拦截导弹下线交付给十几个已签署合同的外国客户时，意味着美国自身可获得的弹药将减少。

Democratic and some Republican lawmakers have been pressing administration officials about the compromises to U.S. global military capabilities given the drain on resources by the Iran war.

民主党人和部分共和党议员一直就伊朗战争消耗资源危及美国全球军事能力一事向政府官员施压。

The Trump administration has invoked an emergency authorization three times to bypass the standard congressional approval process to make arms sales to the Middle East. The $8.64 billion of arms exports announced last Friday was the latest instance. In January, it bypassed congressional approval to sell Apache attack helicopters, combat land vehicles and other arms to Israel, but did not invoke an emergency provision then.

特朗普政府已三次援引紧急授权，绕过常规国会批准程序向中东进行军售。上周五宣布的86.4亿美元军售是最新一次。今年1月，政府绕过国会批准向以色列出售阿帕奇攻击直升机、地面作战车辆及其他武器，但当时并未援引紧急条款。

“The repeated sidelining of Congress on arms sales has become a feature, not a bug, of this administration,” Representative Gregory W. Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement to The Times this week.

纽约州众议员、众议院外交事务委员会首席民主党人格雷戈里·W·米克斯本周向《纽约时报》发表声明称：“在军售问题上反复将国会边缘化已成为本届政府有意而为的手段，而非疏漏。”

“Again invoking emergency authorities, this time for over $25 billion in major weapons transfers, only highlights the administration’s failure to manage this war of choice,” he added. “It did not do the necessary homework before going to war, and now it is rushing to resupply Gulf partners while unnecessarily bypassing Congress, which stand as yet further examples of the administration’s own unpreparedness.”

他补充道：“此次再次援引紧急授权、涉及超过250亿美元的主要武器转让进一步凸显出，政府未能有效管理这场选择性战争。它在开战前没有做好必要准备，现在又急于重新补给海湾伙伴，同时不必要地绕过国会，这些都是政府自身准备不足的进一步例证。”

In a statement released last Friday, Mr. Meeks mentioned the $25 billion sum, which his aides had learned earlier was the total amount of newly authorized arms sales to the Middle East by the State Department.

在上周五发布的声明中，米克斯提到了250亿美元这一总额，他的助手此前已获悉这是国务院新授权的对中东军售总金额。

The gap between that and the $8.64 billion in sales that the State Department announced that day prompted The Times to ask the State Department about the difference. The department acknowledged the further sales of interceptor missiles in a statement this week.

《纽约时报》注意到该总额与国务院当天公布的86.4亿美元之间的差距，随后向国务院询问。国务院本周在一份声明中承认了另外的拦截导弹销售。

A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

陷入胶着的伊朗战争已经严重消耗了美国的火力，以至于中国分析人士开始公开质疑华盛顿保卫台湾的能力。这种战略评估上的变化可能削弱特朗普总统下周与中国最高领导人习近平举行重要峰会时的筹码。

Since the war began in late February, the United States has burned through around half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and fired off roughly 10 times the number of Tomahawk cruise missiles it currently buys each year, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.

据国防部内部估算及国会官员称，自2月底战争爆发以来，美国已消耗了约一半的远程隐身巡航导弹，发射的战斧巡航导弹数量约为目前年采购量的10倍。

To some Chinese military and geopolitical analysts, the war has done more than deplete U.S. munitions stockpiles, it has also shattered America’s aura of dominance. They argue that it has exposed a major flaw in U.S. war strategy: its inability to make weapons quickly enough to replenish its arsenal in a sustained, intense conflict.

在一些中国军事与地缘政治分析人士看来，这场战争的影响不止于大量消耗了美国的弹药库存，还动摇了美国长期以来的主导威势。他们认为，这暴露出美国战争战略中的一个重大缺陷：在持续的高强度冲突中，其武器生产速度远跟不上消耗速度。

This depletion “has significantly diminished the U.S. military’s ability to project its combat power, laying bare the shortcomings of its global military hegemony,” said Yue Gang, a retired colonel of the People’s Liberation Army, in an interview.

火力消耗“极大削弱美军战力的发挥，美军全球军事霸主的短板毕现”，中国人民解放军退役上校岳刚在接受采访时表示。

Such arguments help fuel a narrative among hawkish Chinese commentators, and potentially in the government, that American forces could no longer effectively defend Taiwan should the United States and China ever go to war over the self-governed island. The logic of Chinese nationalists is that since the United States has been unable to achieve a quick victory against Iran, a regional military power, then it would most likely have even less success against China, which the analysts see as a peer competitor.

这种论断助长了中国的鹰派评论人士乃至可能是政府内部的一种叙事：一旦中美因台湾爆发战争，美军将无力对这个自治岛屿实施有效防御。中国民族主义者的逻辑是：既然连伊朗这样的地区军事强国都无法迅速取胜，面对这些分析人士看来势均力敌的竞争对手中国，美国恐怕更难取得成功。

5月，德黑兰的一幅宣传画描绘了对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。伊朗战争已严重消耗了美军在全球范围内的弹药储备。

From this perspective, the U.S. impasse with Iran weakens Mr. Trump’s position going into talks with Mr. Xi next week.

从这一角度看，美国在伊朗的僵局削弱了特朗普下周与习近平会谈时的地位。

“Trump originally intended to visit China with the air of a swift victor, leveraging his position to increase pressure on China,” Mr. Yue said. “Now, however, with the conflict deadlocked and the military campaign stalled, he finds himself in a difficult position.”

“特朗普原意挟速胜之姿态强势访华，借力打力，增大施压中国筹码，”岳刚说。“如今战况僵局骑虎难下。”

Mr. Trump, he added, “will be unable to project the same arrogance.”

他还表示，特朗普“气焰难张”。

Mr. Trump is expected to seek deals with Mr. Xi to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China. That could include pledges by Beijing to buy more American soybeans and Boeing planes. Mr. Trump will also press Mr. Xi about China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

预计特朗普将寻求与习近平达成协议，以帮助减少美国对华贸易逆差。这可能包括北京承诺购买更多美国大豆和波音飞机。美国贸易代表格里尔周三接受彭博电视采访时表示，特朗普还将就中国继续购买伊朗石油一事向习近平施压。

China, for its part, wants to stabilize ties with the Trump administration and extend the trade truce in order to focus on revitalizing its economy and developing its own technologies.

中国方面则希望稳定与特朗普政府的关系，并延长贸易休战，以便集中精力重振经济、发展本国技术。

Beijing wants the Trump administration to reduce its support for Taiwan. Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump in February that China would “never allow Taiwan to be separated from China,” as he urged him to handle U.S. arms sales to the island with “prudence.” (The Trump administration has since delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi.)

北京还希望特朗普政府减少对台湾的支持。习近平今年2月曾警告特朗普，中国“永远不可能让台湾分离出去”，并敦促他“慎重”处理对台军售问题。（此后，特朗普政府推迟宣布一项对台军售计划，以避免激怒习近平。）

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has hinted that Beijing could be seeking some kind of a breakthrough. In a phone call last month with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Mr. Wang called for China and the United States to “open up new space” on the Taiwan issue, though he did not go into specifics.

中国最高外交官王毅也暗示，北京或许正寻求某种突破。上个月与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话时，王毅呼吁中美两国在台湾问题上“打开新的空间”，不过他并未进一步说明具体内容。

China Sees a Declining Power

中国视美国为衰落大国

Ahead of the summit, both countries have tried to maintain a neutral, if uneasy, calm. China has treaded a careful line in discussing the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, a conflict it says it opposed from the beginning. The closest Mr. Xi has come to criticizing Mr. Trump, without naming him, was to denounce the flouting of international law as a “return to the law of the jungle.”

峰会前，两国都试图维持一种不温不火的状态，虽然有些许紧张气氛。中国在讨论美以对伊朗的战争时保持谨慎，称从一开始就反对这场冲突。习近平谴责无视国际法是“倒回丛林法则”，这是在未点名特朗普的情况下最接近批评的表述。

The effort to play nice, for now, could explain why Chinese state news outlets have been guarded in their comments about America’s military vulnerabilities as a result of the war in Iran.

目前这种“示好”的努力或许可以解释，为什么中国官方媒体在评论伊朗战争导致美国军事脆弱性时保持克制。

Reports and commentaries note the depletion of missiles and shifting of U.S. resources, but generally stop short of framing the war as strategically beneficial for China, said Manoj Kewalramani, the head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, India, who monitors Chinese media.

印度班加罗尔塔克沙什拉研究所印太研究负责人马诺吉·凯瓦尔拉马尼表示，中国媒体的报道和评论注意到了导弹消耗和美国资源转移，但通常不会将这场战争描述为对中国具有战略利益。

One notable exception was an essay in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, which argued that “the conflict has overdrawn U.S. strategic resources, potentially leaving the country in a precarious position.” Another was an editorial from Global Times, a Communist Party-controlled nationalist newspaper, that said if the U.S. military was unable to deploy weapons around the world, it would be a “giant with a limp.”

例外情况包括首要的中共理论期刊《求是》的一篇文章，称“冲突使美国战略资源透支，恐陷进退失据”。另一篇是中共民族主义报纸《环球时报》的社论，称如果美国军队无法在全球部署武器，它将是一个“跛脚的巨人”。

中国官方媒体提供的一张照片显示，本周中国与伊朗官员在北京会面。美国已敦促中国向伊朗施压，要求其重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

Hu Xijin, the influential former editor of Global Times, said the U.S. munitions supply chain challenges that the war had exposed gave Beijing not only a material edge, but also a psychological one in any potential war over Taiwan.

《环球时报》前主编胡锡进表示，战争暴露的美国弹药供应链问题不仅给北京在潜在台海战争中带来物质优势，还带来了心理优势。

“If we view the situation as a strategic game of confidence between China and the U.S. over the Taiwan Strait — a game of chess, so to speak — the United States is on the verge of losing all its pieces,” Mr. Hu said in an interview.

胡锡进在接受采访时说：“如果说中美在围绕台海进行战略自信的博弈是下一盘棋，美国的棋子都快被吃光了。”

But China’s Military Has Problems, Too

但中国军队自身也存在问题

The White House and American military officials reject the notion that operations in the Middle East have undermined Washington’s posture in Asia. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that deterring China “through strength” was among the Defense Department’s four top priorities.

白宫和美国军方官员否认中东行动削弱了华盛顿在亚洲的态势。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯表示，通过“实力”威慑中国是国防部的四大优先事项之一。

Asked during a Senate hearing last month if resources being diverted to the Middle East was weakening U.S. military readiness in the Pacific, Adm. Samuel J. Paparo Jr., the head of the military’s Indo-Pacific Command, said, “I don’t see any real cost being imposed on our ability to deter China.”

上个月在参议院听证会上，当被问及向中东转移资源是否会削弱美国在太平洋的战备时，印太司令部司令塞缪尔·J·帕帕罗二世上将表示：“我没有看到这对我们威慑中国的能力造成任何实际损失。”

To be sure, questions abound about China’s own military readiness. Not only has the People’s Liberation Army been untested in major combat for nearly five decades, its top leadership has been thrown into disarray by political purges and a crackdown on corruption.

中国自身的军事准备无疑也存在诸多疑问。人民解放军近五十年未经历过大规模实战，其高层领导因政治清洗和反腐行动陷入混乱。

张又侠（前排）曾是中国军队的最高级现役将领。在一场针对军队内部腐败与不忠诚行为的大规模整肃行动中，他与多名将军一同遭清洗。

By comparison, the U.S. military showcased its potency by killing Tehran’s leaders, establishing control of the skies over Iran and sending special forces into enemy territory to rescue a downed pilot.

相比之下，通过击毙德黑兰领导人、掌控伊朗上空并派遣特种部队进入敌方领土营救坠机飞行员，美国军队展示了其作战能力。

“The United States has very successfully demonstrated its wartime capabilities in a way that China should consider credible,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official who is now a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

前五角大楼官员、现任新加坡拉惹勒南国际关系学院高级研究员德鲁·汤普森表示：“美国以一种中国应当视为可信的方式成功展示了其战时能力。”

Mr. Thompson also cautioned against comparing the conflict in Iran to a war over Taiwan. In a defense of the island, the United States would largely rely on anti-ship missiles, which were used sparingly on Iran, to target a Chinese invasion fleet.

汤普森也警告不要将伊朗冲突与台海战争直接类比。在保卫台湾时，美国将主要依赖反舰导弹（这些导弹在伊朗战场使用较少）来打击中国入侵舰队。

Sending a Message to U.S. Allies

向美国盟友传递信息

Even without going to war, China can point to the complications the Trump administration is facing and argue to U.S. allies in Asia that Washington cannot be relied upon as a security guarantor.

即使不发生战争，中国也可以指出特朗普政府面临的困境，并向亚洲的美国盟友辩称，华盛顿无法再被视为可靠的安全保障者。

“When allies face uncertainties over deployments and delayed equipment, it inevitably raises questions about the reliability and consistency of U.S. security assurances in the region,” said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

北京大学中外人文交流研究基地执行主任王栋表示：“对部署和装备交付产生不确定性时，盟友不可避免地会质疑美国在该地区安全承诺的可靠性和一致性。”

The United States, he added, “is encountering the limits of its global military footprint”

他补充说，美国“全球军事足迹正在达到极限”。

China may ultimately be emboldened by the war in Iran to become more assertive in Asia using gray-zone tactics — aggressive moves that fall short of inciting all-out war. Over the last few months, for example, China has been building an island in disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam that will help it gain more control of the South China Sea.

伊朗战争最终可能鼓励中国在亚洲更加大胆地使用灰色地带战术——即那些不会引发全面战争的进攻性行动。例如，过去几个月，中国一直在越南沿海争议水域建造一座岛屿，以加强对南海的控制。

今年4月拍摄的越南海岸附近羚羊礁卫星图像。通过建设这样的人工岛屿，中国得以扩大在南海争议海域的控制范围。

Beijing is unlikely to expedite plans to invade Taiwan, said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

战略与国际研究中心“中国实力”项目研究员布赖恩·哈特表示，北京不太可能加快入侵台湾的计划。

Any such plan would be based primarily on “political factors” like a sudden move by the island territory to declare formal independence, he said.

他说，任何此类计划都将主要基于“政治因素”，例如台湾突然宣布正式独立等举动。

Neat rows of Chinese currency bills sit behind glass at the center of the national security gallery inside Hong Kong’s Museum of History, along with model fighter jets, attack helicopters and vials of rare-earth metals.

在香港历史博物馆的国家安全展厅中心，玻璃柜后整齐地陈列着一叠叠人民币纸币，旁边还有战斗机模型、武装直升机以及装有稀土金属的小瓶。

Set with instruments of war and trade, the display underscores a central idea: The internationalization of its currency, the renminbi, is considered a pillar of China’s national security.

这组集战争工具与贸易手段于一体的展品凸显了一个核心理念：人民币的国际化被视为中国国家安全的重要支柱。

Despite its rise as an economic superpower, China remains reliant on a global financial system anchored by the dollar. Turning the renminbi into a globally accepted currency would let Beijing conduct more trade on its own terms and blunt a longstanding source of American leverage.

尽管中国已崛起为经济超级大国，但仍依赖于以美元为锚的全球金融体系。将人民币转变为全球公认的货币将使北京能够按照自己的条件开展更多贸易，并削弱美国长期以来的杠杆。

That push has gained momentum from the wars in Ukraine and Iran, as sanctions drive American adversaries toward the renminbi to bypass the Western financial system. In effect, China’s 20-year project to build the international financial ties and technological infrastructure for a globally accepted currency is paying off, even if others are the ones sidestepping the dollar.

乌克兰和伊朗的战争进一步推动了这一进程，制裁正迫使美国的对手转而使用人民币，以绕过西方金融体系。事实上，中国为建立全球认可货币所需的国际金融纽带和技术基础设施而进行的这项计划已耗时20年，如今正在产生回报，即使目前主要是其他国家在利用它来规避美元。

香港历史博物馆展出的中国纸币。对电子产品生产至关重要的稀土金属样本正在展出。

China’s financial positioning is “meeting the demand for de-dollarization” from countries seeking to trade with restricted nations like Iran, said Alisha Chhangani, an associate director at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.

华盛顿智库大西洋理事会副总监阿丽莎·昌加尼表示，中国的金融布局正在“满足那些寻求与伊朗等受限国家进行贸易的国家的去美元化需求”。

Since the end of World War II, when 44 countries agreed to make the dollar the world’s reserve currency, most global trade has run on it. That dominance has given the United States powerful leverage, allowing it to impose sanctions that can all but ensure financial ruin.

自二战结束、44国同意将美元定为世界储备货币以来，大多数全球贸易都以美元结算。这种主导地位赋予了美国强大的影响力，通过制裁，美国能够几乎确保对方在金融上陷入绝境。

Recent conflicts have shown how a Chinese alternative can offer a way around the system. At least two ships have paid Iran in renminbi to secure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime information service.

近期的冲突表明，中国的替代方案可以提供一条绕过该体系的路径。据航运情报服务机构劳氏情报称，至少已有两艘船只向伊朗支付人民币，以确保安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。

Payments using China’s network rose nearly 50 percent last month as countries bought Iranian oil, according to data from the Atlantic Council. Russia, cut off from the dollar after invading Ukraine, now settles most of its trade with China in renminbi.

根据大西洋理事会的数据，随着各国购买伊朗石油，上个月使用中国支付网络的结算量增长了近50%。而俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰被切断美元渠道，目前与中国的大部分贸易都使用人民币结算。

In March, Qiushi, the Chinese Communist Party’s ideological journal, resurfaced a 2024 speech by Xi Jinping, China’s leader, calling for the renminbi to be “widely used in international trade” and to “attain reserve currency status.”

今年3月，中国共产党的意识形态刊物《求是》重刊了中国领导人习近平在2024年的一次讲话，呼吁人民币在“国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用”，并取得“储备货币地位”。

The dollar is still the top currency of choice in international trade, valued for its liquidity and ease of use. The euro, yen and British pound are distant runners-up. Even transactions that do not involve the United States are often done with dollars, including most of China’s own trade. The renminbi accounts for just 3 percent of global transactions, roughly the same as the Canadian dollar.

目前，美元仍是国际贸易的首选货币，因其流动性和易用性而备受青睐。欧元、日元和英镑则远远落后。即使不涉及美国的交易（包括中国自身的大部分贸易）也通常使用美元。人民币仅占全球交易量的3%，与加元大致持平。

China’s tight financial controls have long held back the renminbi’s global use, making it less attractive to hold. Capital flows are tightly managed. Citizens can move only limited sums abroad each year, and foreign investors face strict quotas and must obtain approvals to buy Chinese stocks and bonds.

长期以来，中国严格的金融管制限制了人民币的全球使用，使其作为持有资产的吸引力大打折扣。资本流动受到严格管理，公民每年向境外转移资金的数额有限，而外国投资者则面临严格的配额限制，且必须获得批准才能购买中国股票和债券。

中国与各国央行建立了总额达6000亿美元的货币互换网络——既提供了流动性，又将影响力扩展到了美元体系之外。

But China doesn’t need to displace the dollar to move closer to escaping America’s financial grip, said Edward Fishman, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Simply having an alternative system in place for emergencies is enough to weaken Washington’s chokehold on global finance.

但美国对外关系委员会研究员爱德华·菲什曼指出，中国不需要取代美元就能接近摆脱美国的金融钳制。只要有一套备用的替代系统以应对紧急情况，就足以削弱华盛顿对全球金融的扼制。

Beijing has gone to extraordinary lengths to insulate itself from geopolitical shocks, building stockpiles of oil, gas and critical materials. It even maintains a strategic reserve of pork, a staple of the nation’s diet. In the same vein, China has spent decades developing a parallel financial infrastructure that operates outside the dollar system.

北京已采取非同寻常的措施来防范地缘政治冲击，包括建立石油、天然气和关键材料的储备，甚至还设有国家重要食品猪肉的战略储备。同样，中国数十年来一直在开发一套运行在美元体系之外的平行金融基础设施。

Beginning in the 2000s, China signed currency-swap agreements with dozens of central banks, giving trading partners access to the renminbi without going through the dollar-based system. These so-called swap lines, totaling roughly $600 billion, provide emergency liquidity and could expand China’s influence in a financial crisis.

从2000年代开始，中国与数十家央行签署了货币互换协议，使贸易伙伴无需通过美元系统即可获得人民币。这些总额约为6000亿美元的所谓互换额度提供了应急流动性，并能在金融危机中扩大中国的影响力。

In 2015, China launched the Cross-border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, allowing banks worldwide to settle payments in renminbi. The system offers an alternative to SWIFT, the Belgian-based messaging network that underpins most global transactions. Both Russian and Iranian banks have been kicked off SWIFT under U.S. pressure.

2015年，中国启动了人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)，允许全球银行以人民币结算支付。该系统提供了SWIFT之外的另一种选择，后者是支撑全球绝大多数交易的比利时通讯网络。在美方的压力下，俄罗斯和伊朗的银行都已被踢出SWIFT。

Since Russian banks were removed from SWIFT after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the number of institutions directly participating in CIPS has nearly tripled, rising to nearly 200 from 75, according to Chinese government data.

据中国政府数据显示，自2022年俄罗斯银行因全面入侵乌克兰被移出SWIFT以来，直接参与CIPS的机构数量已从75家增至近200家，接近原来的三倍。

Money flowing through China’s financial plumbing has surged since the war in Iran forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, according to the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Countries desperate for oil are increasingly using the Chinese network to pay for internationally restricted crude outside the dollar system.

大西洋理事会地缘经济中心称，自伊朗战争迫使霍尔木兹海峡（全球约20%石油流经的重要航道）关闭以来，流向中国金融系统的资金激增。急需石油的国家正越来越多地利用中国网络在美元体系之外支付受国际限制的原油。

本月，多艘油轮在伊朗格什姆岛附近的霍尔木兹海峡抛锚停泊。

From February to March, the average daily payments rose to more than $131 billion a day from $86 billion, while the average transaction size increased over 8 percent, according to data from the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Shanghai Securities News, a state-owned newspaper, attributed the growth in use to “continued uncertainty in the Middle East.”

大西洋理事会地缘经济中心的数据显示，从2月到3月，平均日支付额从860亿美元增至超过1310亿美元，平均交易规模增长了8%以上。中国国有的《上海证券报》将这一增长归因于“持续震荡的中东局势”。

“The uptick has to be other countries in Asia that are switching to usage in this moment” to buy restricted oil, said Josh Lipsky, the director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council.

“这种回升势头必然源于亚洲其他国家当前正在转向”使用人民币来购买受限石油，大西洋理事会地缘经济中心主任乔什·利普斯基表示。

Major hurdles remain for the renminbi to challenge the dollar’s dominance, said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University.

康奈尔大学经济学教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示，人民币要挑战美元的主导地位仍面临重大障碍。

For the currency to play a larger global role, it must be easier to use outside China, which requires loosening Beijing’s tight capital flow controls. The government has been reluctant to take that step for fear of losing control of its exchange rate. Without that opening, there is not enough renminbi circulating abroad for trading partners to do much beyond buying Chinese goods, Mr. Prasad said.

要使人民币发挥更大的全球作用，它必须在境外更容易被使用，这需要北京放宽严格的资本流动管制。由于担心失去对汇率的控制，中国政府一直不愿采取这一步。普拉萨德表示，如果不开放，境外流通的人民币就不够多，贸易伙伴除了购买中国商品外，无法开展更多业务。

When countries like Saudi Arabia sell their oil for dollars, they can easily recycle those proceeds into liquid assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. With renminbi, there is no equivalent yet.

当沙特阿拉伯等国以美元出售石油时，他们可以轻易将收益转为美国国债等流动资产，而人民币目前还没有同等的途径。

So far, China has taken small but meaningful steps toward strengthening its cross-border payment system. It is still unclear whether China is truly on a “durable path” to becoming a major global payments currency, Mr. Prasad said. But one thing is clear: “There is a desperate desire in the world to escape the clutches of the dollar-denominated system.”

到目前为止，中国在加强跨境支付系统方面采取了虽然微小但具有意义的步骤。普拉萨德认为，目前尚不清楚中国是否真正走上了成为主要全球支付货币的“持久路径”，但有一点是明确的：“世界各国都迫切希望摆脱美元计价体系的束缚。”

Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has burned through around 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China, close to the total number remaining in the U.S. stockpile. The military has fired off more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly 10 times the number it currently buys each year.

自伊朗战争于2月下旬爆发以来，美国已消耗了约1100枚为与中国开战而制造的远程隐身巡航导弹，接近剩余库存的总量。军方还发射了1000多枚“战斧”巡航导弹，这大约是其目前年采购量的10倍。

The Pentagon used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than $4 million a pop, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, leaving inventories worrisomely low, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.

根据国防部内部评估和国会官员的说法，五角大楼在这场战争中使用了1200多枚“爱国者”拦截导弹（每枚成本超过400万美元）以及1000多枚“精确打击”和“陆军战术导弹系统”(ATACMS)等陆基导弹，致使库存水平降至令人担忧的低点。

The Iran war has significantly drained much of the U.S. military’s global supply of munitions, and forced the Pentagon to rush bombs, missiles and other hardware to the Middle East from commands in Asia and Europe. The drawdowns have left these regional commands less ready to confront potential adversaries like Russia and China, and it has forced the United States to find ways to scale up production to address the depletions, Trump administration and congressional officials say.

特朗普政府及国会官员表示，伊朗战争已大量消耗了美军在全球范围内的弹药库存，并迫使五角大楼紧急从亚洲和欧洲的司令部向中东调运炸弹、导弹及其他武器装备。这种调拨导致各地区司令部应对俄罗斯和中国等潜在对手的准备能力下降，同时也迫使美国寻求扩大生产以填补库存空缺。

The conflict has also underscored the Pentagon’s overreliance on excessively expensive missiles and munitions, especially air-defense interceptors, as well as concerns about whether the defense industry can develop cheaper arms, especially attack drones, far more quickly.

此次冲突也凸显了五角大楼对价格过于昂贵的导弹和弹药（特别是防空拦截弹）的过度依赖，并引发了人们对国防工业能否更快地开发出更廉价武器（尤其是攻击无人机）的担忧。

The Defense Department has not disclosed how many munitions it used in 38 days of war before a cease-fire took effect two weeks ago. The Pentagon says it hit more than 13,000 targets, but officials say that figure masks the vast number of bombs and missiles it used because warplanes, attack planes and artillery typically strike large targets multiple times.

国防部尚未披露停火生效前这38天的战争所使用的弹药数量。五角大楼称其打击了超过1.3万个目标，但官员们表示，这一数字掩盖了实际使用的庞大炸弹和导弹数量，因为战机、攻击性飞机和火炮通常会对大型目标实施多次打击。

White House officials have refused to estimate the cost of the conflict so far, but two independent groups say the expense is staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, or just under $1 billion a day.

白宫官员迄今拒绝估算冲突成本，但两个独立研究机构称费用惊人：在280亿至350亿美元之间，相当于日均消耗近10亿美元。

In the first two days alone, defense officials have told lawmakers, the military used $5.6 billion of munitions.

国防官员告诉国会议员，仅在最初的两天，军方就消耗了56亿美元的弹药。

To restore the U.S. global stockpile to its previous size, the United States will have to make tough choices about where to maintain its military strength in the meantime. “At current production rates, reconstituting what we have expended could take years,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week.

为将美国全球库存恢复到原有水平，美国在此期间不得不就如何维持其军事力量做出艰难抉择。参议院军事委员会首席民主党议员、罗德岛州参议员杰克·里德本周表示：“以目前的生产速度，补充已消耗的弹药可能需要数年时间。”

“The United States has many munitions with adequate inventories, but some critical ground-attack and missile-defense munitions were short before the war and are even shorter now,” said Mark F. Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which recently published a study estimating the status of key munitions.

美国海军陆战队退役上校、战略与国际研究中心高级顾问马克·F·坎西安指出：“美军虽有许多弹药库存充足，但部分关键对地攻击和导弹防御弹药在战前就已短缺，目前缺口更大了。”该中心近期发布了一份研究报告，评估了关键弹药的库存状况。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement that “the entire premise of this story is false.” She added: “The United States of America has the most powerful military in the world, fully loaded with more than enough weapons and munitions, in stockpiles here at home and all around the globe, to effectively defend the homeland and achieve any military operation directed by the commander in chief.”

白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·利维特发表声明称：“这篇报道的前提完全错误。”她补充道：“美国拥有世界上最强大的军队，在国内及全球储备的武器弹药足以有效保卫国土，并完成总司令指挥的任何军事行动。”

Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, declined to comment on “any specific theater requirements or detail our global resource capabilities,” citing operational security.

五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔以作战安全为由拒绝就“任何特定战区需求或全球资源能力详情”置评。

Some Republicans, including Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the chairman of the subcommittee that funds the Pentagon, have pressed for an increase in spending on munitions production over several administrations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made that goal a top priority during his tenure.

包括参议院负责向五角大楼拨款的小组委员会的主席、肯塔基州参议员米奇·麦康奈尔在内，一些共和党人多年来一直呼吁增加弹药生产拨款。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯也已将此目标列为其任期内的首要任务。

Making things more perilous for the Pentagon, officials say, is that the Defense Department is waiting for Congress to approve additional funding before it can pay weapons manufacturers to replenish the depleted American supply. In January, the administration announced that it had secured seven-year agreements with major defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin, to increase production capacity for defense systems like missile interceptors.

官员们称，令五角大楼处境更加严峻的是，国防部正在等待国会批准额外拨款，才能向武器制造商支付费用以补充美国耗尽的库存。今年1月，政府宣布已与洛克希德·马丁等主要国防承包商达成七年期协议，以提升导弹拦截系统等防御武器的产能。

In the meantime, the military is using its existing weapons supplies at steep rates to meet Central Command’s immediate needs in the Iran war. Certain munition levels are shrinking faster than others.

与此同时，军方正在以惊人的速度消耗现有武器库存，以满足中央司令部在伊朗战争中的紧急需求。某些弹药的库存水平正在以比其他物资更快的速度缩减。

The Pentagon, for example, has committed most of its inventory of stealthy, long-range cruise missiles to the fight against Iran. These missiles, called Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range, or JASSM-ER, are launched from fighters and bombers and have a range of more than 600 miles. They are designed to penetrate hard targets outside the range of enemy air defenses.

例如，五角大楼已将其大部分远程隐身巡航导弹库存投入到对伊朗的作战中。这些被称为“联合空对地防区外导弹-增程型”(JASSM-ER)的导弹由战斗机和轰炸机发射，射程超过600英里，用于在敌方防空火力圈外发射，打击坚固目标。

Since the war started, the military has used about 1,100 JASSM-ER missiles, which cost roughly $1.1 million apiece, leaving roughly 1,500 in the military’s inventories, according to internal Pentagon estimates, a U.S. military official and a congressional official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential combat assessments.

根据五角大楼内部评估、一名美军官员和一名国会官员（他们因涉及机密作战评估而要求匿名）的说法，自战争开始以来，军方已使用了约1100枚JASSM-ER导弹（每枚成本约110万美元），库存中大约还剩1500枚。

Tomahawks, which cost about $3.6 million each, are long-range cruise missiles that have been widely used for U.S. warfighting since the first Persian Gulf War in 1991. They remain a key munition for potential future wars, including one in Asia.

“战斧”巡航导弹（每枚成本约360万美元）是一种远程巡航导弹，自1991年第一次海湾战争以来一直被美军广泛用于作战，并且仍是包括可能在亚洲发生的战争在内的未来潜在冲突中的关键弹药。

“While sufficient munitions exist to wage this war, high expenditure of Tomahawks and other missiles in Operation Epic Fury creates risks for the United States in other theaters — particularly the Western Pacific,” concluded a C.S.I.S. study, which estimated the remaining Tomahawk stockpiles to be around 3,000 missiles.

战略与国际研究中心的一项研究得出结论：“尽管有足够弹药支持这场战争，但‘史诗愤怒’行动中战斧及其他导弹的高消耗率给美国在其他战区（尤其是西太平洋）带来了风险。”该研究估计，“战斧”导弹的剩余库存约为3000枚。

Patriot interceptor missiles can cost nearly $4 million each. The United States produced about 600 of them in all of 2025. More than 1,200 have been used in the war so far, according to internal Pentagon estimates and congressional officials.

“爱国者”拦截导弹每枚成本近400万美元。美国在2025年全年共生产了约600枚。根据五角大楼内部评估和国会官员的说法，截至目前，战争中已使用了超过1200枚。

Overall, the cost of the war so far is between $25 billion and $35 billion, according to a study this month by the American Enterprise Institute compiled by Elaine McCusker, a senior Pentagon official during the first Trump administration. Mr. Cancian of C.S.I.S. said in an email that he and his analysts put the cost of the conflict so far at about $28 billion.

总体而言，根据美国企业研究所本月发布的一份研究报告（由特朗普第一任期内的五角大楼高级官员伊莱恩·麦卡斯克汇编），截至目前战争的总体成本在250亿至350亿美元之间。战略与国际研究中心的坎西安在一封电子邮件中表示，他及其分析师将此次冲突截至目前的总成本估算为约280亿美元。

All regional military commanders are feeling the strain of shrinking munitions stocks.

所有地区的军事指挥官都感受到了弹药库存缩减的压力。

In Europe, the war has led to depletions in weapons systems critical for defending the eastern flank of NATO from Russian aggression, according to Pentagon information reviewed by The New York Times.

根据《纽约时报》审阅的五角大楼文件，在欧洲，这场战争已导致用于防御北约东翼免受俄罗斯侵略的关键武器系统库存枯竭。

A problem described as serious was the loss of surveillance and attack drones. The demands of the Iran war have also curtailed exercises and training. According to military officials, this hurts the ability to mount offensive operations in Europe, as well as deterrence of potential Russian attacks.

一个被描述为严重的问题是监视和攻击无人机的损失。伊朗战争的需求还减少了演习和训练。据军方官员称，这损害了在欧洲发动进攻行动的能力，以及对潜在俄罗斯攻击的威慑力。

But the biggest impact has been on troops in Asia.

但受影响最大的是在亚洲的部队。

Before the war with Iran started, American military commanders redirected the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. Since then, two Marine Expeditionary Units, each with about 2,200 Marines, have been sent to the Middle East from the Pacific. The Pentagon has also moved sophisticated air defenses from Asia to bolster protection against Iran’s drones and rockets.

在与伊朗的战争开始前，美军指挥官已将“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母打击群从南海调往中东。此后，两个海军陆战队远征部队（各包括约2200名陆战队员）已从太平洋被派往中东。五角大楼还从亚洲调走了先进的防空系统，以加强针对伊朗无人机和火箭弹的防护。

The redirected weapons include Patriot missiles and interceptors from the THAAD system in South Korea — the only Asian ally hosting the advanced missile defense system, deployed by the Pentagon to counter North Korea’s growing missile threat. Now, for the first time, the system’s interceptors are being moved away, according to American officials.

调动的武器包括来自韩国的“爱国者”导弹和“萨德”系统拦截弹——韩国是唯一一个部署了该先进导弹防御系统的亚洲盟友，该系统是五角大楼为应对朝鲜日益增长的导弹威胁而部署的。据美国官员称，这是该系统拦截弹首次被调走。

U.S. readiness in the Pacific was hurt earlier by the Pentagon’s deployment of warships and aircraft to the Middle East after the Israel-Gaza war began in October 2023 and after Houthi militia forces in Yemen started attacking ships in the Red Sea to support the Palestinians, the officials say.

官员们称，美军在太平洋的战备状态此前已受到损害，原因是2023年10月以哈战争爆发后，以及也门胡塞武装为支持巴勒斯坦人开始在红海袭击船只后，五角大楼向中东部署了军舰和飞机。

The monthlong bombing campaign against the Houthis last year — an operation the Pentagon called Rough Rider — was much larger than the Trump administration initially disclosed at the time. The Pentagon used up about $200 million of munitions in the first three weeks alone, U.S. officials said. The costs of the overall operation far exceeded $1 billion when operational and personnel expenses were taken into account, the officials added.

去年对胡塞武装长达一个月的轰炸行动（五角大楼称之为“莽骑兵”行动）的规模比特朗普政府最初披露的要大得多。美国官员称，仅在前三周，五角大楼就消耗了价值约2亿美元的弹药。官员们补充说，如果考虑到行动和人员费用，整个行动的成本远超10亿美元。

The American ships and aircraft, as well as the service members working on them, are being pushed at what the military calls a high operating tempo. Even basic equipment maintenance becomes an issue under those grinding conditions.

美国的军舰和飞机，以及为其服务的军人，正以军方所称的高运行节奏运转。在这种严酷的条件下，即使是基本的设备维护也成了问题。

The Justice Department has identified 384 foreign-born Americans whose citizenship it wants to revoke, part of a push to increase the pace of denaturalizations by assigning the cases to prosecutors in dozens of U.S. attorney’s offices across the country.

美国司法部已锁定384名归化美国公民，计划撤销他们的公民身份。这是加快撤销归化入籍进程的一部分，相关案件将分配给全国数十个联邦检察官办公室的检察官处理。

Senior Justice Department officials in Washington told colleagues during a meeting last week that civil litigators in 39 regional offices would soon be assigned to file denaturalization cases against the individuals, according to an official familiar with the announcement who was not authorized to describe it on the record. Two people familiar with the plans confirmed the broader effort to ramp up denaturalizations. It was not clear what led the department to target the 384 individuals.

据一位未获授权公开发言的知情人士透露，司法部在华盛顿的高级官员于上周的一次会议上告诉同事，39个地区办公室的民事诉讼律师将很快接受指派，对这些人提起撤销入籍的诉讼。两位知情人士证实了这项旨在加大撤销入籍力度的这一整体行动。目前尚不清楚司法部锁定这384人的具体原因。

Under federal law, the government may ask a court to strip the citizenship of people who obtained it fraudulently — for instance, by entering into a sham marriage or by withholding information about their past that would have made them ineligible. Some who commit crimes may also be denaturalized. The government must present evidence to a federal judge through a civil or criminal proceeding, making the process challenging and time-consuming.

根据联邦法律，政府可以请求法院剥夺通过欺诈手段获得的公民身份，例如通过假结婚或隐瞒会导致其不具备资格的过往重要信息。一些存在犯罪行为的人也可能被撤销入籍。政府必须在民事或刑事程序中向联邦法官提交证据，因此这一过程既复杂又耗时。

Traditionally, experts in the department’s office of immigration litigation have handled denaturalization cases. But the effort to enlist regular prosecutors to pursue these cases could lead to a surge in denaturalizations, which have been rare in recent decades. It also comes just months after Trump administration officials ordered Department of Homeland Security staffers to refer upward of 200 denaturalization cases a month to the DOJ.

传统上，这类案件通常由司法部移民诉讼办公室的专家处理。而让普通检察官参与办理这些案件可能导致撤销入籍案件激增，近几十年来此类案件一直数量很少。就在几个月前，特朗普政府官员还命令国土安全部工作人员每月向司法部移送逾200起撤销入籍案件。

Matthew Tragesser, a Justice Department spokesman, said that officials were “pursuing the highest volume of denaturalization referrals in history” from the Department of Homeland Security.

司法部发言人马修·特拉格瑟表示，官员们正在从国土安全部“接收史上最大数量的撤销入籍案件移交”。

“The Department of Justice is laser focused on rooting out criminal aliens defrauding the naturalization process,” he added.

他还补充道：“司法部正高度专注于清除那些通过欺诈手段获得国籍的犯罪外国人。”

“Citizenship fraud is a serious crime; anyone who has broken the law and obtained citizenship through fraud and deceit will be held accountable,” said Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman.

白宫发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊表示：“公民身份欺诈是一项严重犯罪；任何违反法律、通过欺骗和欺诈手段获得公民身份的人都将被追究责任。”

The push indicates that the Trump administration aims to make good on its plan to increase the pace of denaturalizations as part of its crackdown on immigration. The move will likely scare many naturalized immigrants as the Trump administration has sought to curtail immigration across the board and spoken disdainfully about migrants from certain countries.

此举表明，特朗普政府旨在落实其加速撤销归化公民身份的计划，以此作为打击非法移民的一部分。由于特朗普政府一直在全面限制移民，并对某些国家的移民发表轻蔑言论，此举可能会让许多已入籍的移民感到恐惧。

“The message it sends is that naturalized citizens don’t have the same rights and stability as native-born citizens,” said Amanda Frost, a law professor at the University of Virginia. “The government has used this power in the past to target people it views as political opponents.”

弗吉尼亚大学法学教授阿曼达·弗罗斯特表示：“这传递出的信息是，归化公民并不享有与出生公民同等的权利和稳定性。政府过去曾利用这一权力来针对其视为政治对手的人。”

Between 2017 and late last year, the government sought to strip just over 120 naturalized Americans of their citizenship. Such cases were far less common before President Trump was first elected, said Ms. Frost, who has written about the history of denaturalization. Between 1990 and 2017, the government filed 305 denaturalization cases, an average of 11 per year.

弗罗斯特教授曾撰文论述撤销入籍的历史，她表示，从2017年到去年年底，政府试图剥夺120余名归化美国公民的国籍。而在特朗普首次当选总统之前，这类案件要少得多。1990年至2017年间，政府共提起305起撤销入籍诉讼，平均每年11起。

People who become U.S. citizens are extensively vetted. Applicants must provide biometric data and answer wide-ranging questions about their travel history, run-ins with the law and ties to the Communist Party. Some qualify through marriage to U.S. citizens after three years. Others become eligible after having held green cards for at least five years. The final steps of the naturalization process include passing civics and English tests.

成为美国公民需要经过严格审查。申请人必须提供生物识别数据，并回答涉及旅行历史、违法记录以及与共产党的关系等方面的广泛问题。有些人通过与美国公民结婚满三年获得资格，还有一些人则是在持有绿卡至少五年后具备申请资格。入籍程序的最后步骤包括通过公民常识和英语测试。

There have been instances of fraud. In 2017, the inspector general at the Department of Homeland Security said in a report that an initiative to digitize fingerprints collected on paper in old immigration cases revealed that more than 800 immigrants obtained American citizenship despite having been previously deported under a different name.

欺诈案例确实存在。2017年，国土安全部监察长在一份报告中指出，一项将以往的移民案件中以纸质形式采集的指纹加以数字化的项目发现，有800多名移民此前曾以不同姓名被驱逐出境，却仍获得了美国公民身份。

In 2024, more than 818,000 immigrants became American citizens, according to federal data.

根据联邦数据，2024年有超过81.8万名移民成为美国公民。

Naturalized citizens enjoy almost all the rights and responsibilities of native-born citizens (a notable exception is that foreign-born citizens may not run for president). As such, the bar for stripping someone of citizenship is high.

归化公民几乎享有与出生公民相同的所有权利和义务（一个显著例外是，外国出生的公民不能竞选总统）。因此，剥夺一个人的公民身份门槛非常高。

“For civil revocation of naturalization, the burden of proof is clear, convincing, and unequivocal evidence which does not leave the issue in doubt,” the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service said on its website.

美国公民及移民服务局在其网站上表示：“对于通过民事诉讼撤销归化国籍，举证责任要求提供清晰、令人信服且明确的证据，不得留下任何疑点。”

During last week’s meeting, Francey Hakes, the director of the Executive Office for United States Attorneys, described the 384 individuals identified for denaturalization “the first wave of cases” the government intended to pursue. Ms. Hakes acknowledged that several civil divisions at U.S. attorney’s offices are understaffed and struggling to cope with an avalanche of lawsuits filed by immigrants challenging the legality of their detentions.

在上周的会议上，美国联邦检察官执行办公室主任弗朗西·海克斯将已确定的384名拟撤销入籍者称为政府计划推进的“第一波案件”。海克斯承认，多个联邦检察官办公室的民事部门人手不足，且正艰难应对移民提起的大量质疑其拘留合法性的诉讼。

“I hope these cases will not be too much of an additional burden,” Ms. Hakes told colleagues, adding that boosting denaturalization cases was a “White House initiative.”

“我希望这些案件不会增加太多额外负担，”海克斯告诉同事们，并补充说，加大撤销入籍案件的力度是“白宫的一项倡议”。

Ms. Jackson, the White House spokeswoman, said “this isn’t a White House initiative — it’s federal law.”

白宫发言人杰克逊则表示：“这并不是白宫的倡议——这是联邦法律。”

Making denaturalization cases a core part of the work of civil divisions at U.S. attorney’s offices stands to divert resources from the type of cases its litigators have historically prioritized. Those include health-care fraud, procurement fraud, enforcement of civil rights laws and asset forfeiture cases.

将撤销入籍案件作为联邦检察官办公室民事部门的核心工作，可能会分流其诉讼律师原本用于处理传统优先案件的资源。这些案件包括医疗欺诈、采购欺诈、民权法律执行以及资产没收案件。

A rise in denaturalizations may also send a chilling message, said Ms. Frost, the law professor, hearkening back to an era in the 20th Century during which the government denaturalized political activists it disdained. President Trump said in an interview in January that Americans of Somali descent could be among those targeted in the denaturalization push.

法学教授弗罗斯特表示，撤销入籍案件的增加还可能释放出一种令人不安的信号，让人联想到20世纪某个时期，当时政府曾剥夺其不满的政治活动人士的公民身份。特朗普总统在今年1月的一次采访中曾表示，索马里裔美国人可能会成为此次撤销入籍行动的目标之一。

During the years when the government pursued denaturalization cases infrequently, it tended to go after people who had committed war crimes overseas before becoming Americans.

在政府很少处理撤销入籍案件的年代，它往往针对的是那些在成为美国公民之前于海外犯下战争罪行的人。

“This kind of mass denaturalization campaign will be based on a distortion of the law and is another transparent effort to destabilize long-established principles of US citizenship,” said Lucas Guttentag, a former DOJ official in the Biden administration and a professor at Stanford Law School. “Genuine fraud when it actually occurs has always been aggressively pursued.”

斯坦福法学院教授、曾在拜登政府时期担任司法部官员的卢卡斯·古滕塔格表示：“这种大规模撤销入籍行动将建立在对法律的曲解之上，是破坏美国公民身份长期确立原则的又一次赤裸裸的尝试。”他还说：“真正发生的欺诈行为一直都会被严厉追究。”

In recent months, the Trump administration has filed denaturalization cases against a broad range of immigrants. They include a Marine from Ghana who was court-martialed over a sex crime, an Argentine man accused of having obtained citizenship by falsely claiming to be Cuban and a Nigerian man convicted of running a tax-fraud scheme.

最近几个月，特朗普政府已对各类移民提起了撤销入籍诉讼，其中包括一名因性犯罪接受军事法庭审判的加纳裔海军陆战队员、一名被指控通过谎称自己是古巴人而获得公民身份的阿根廷男子，以及一名因经营税务欺诈计划而被定罪的尼日利亚男子。

A research arm of the Chinese government said it had published an atlas of deep-sea mineral deposits, highlighting Beijing’s ambitions to mine the ocean floor and underscoring its disputed claims to waters that neighboring nations consider theirs.

中国政府的一个研究机构表示，已发布一本深海沉积物分布图集，此举既凸显了北京开发海底资源的雄心，也再次强化了其对一些周边国家视为本国海域的争议性主张。

Experts say the maps, in addition to pinpointing mineral deposits found in the deep ocean, give China’s military a thorough understanding of the seafloor in strategically important waters, providing an advantage if submarine warfare were to break out.

专家表示，这些地图除了标明深海沉积物的位置外，还能让中国军方在具有重要战略意义的海域全面了解海底的情况，一旦发生潜艇战，将为其带来优势。

The announcement this month by the China Geological Survey puts pressure on other countries that have been ramping up their own seabed mining efforts, in part to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals and rare earth elements. Ocean sediments are rich in valuable resources including cobalt, nickel, and manganese.

中国地质调查局本月发布的这一消息给其他国家带来了压力——这些国家正在加紧推进海底采矿，一部分原因是希望减少对中国在关键矿产和稀土方面的依赖。海洋沉积物中富含钴、镍、锰等宝贵资源。

“China is pouring enormous resources in an effort to emerge as a world-leading oceanographic power,” said Bruce Jones, a naval affairs and foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution. The United States historically dominated in ocean-science fields, he said. Now, China is closing the gap, increasing China’s military capabilities and equipping it with the knowledge needed to fight underwater, Dr. Jones said.

布鲁金斯学会的海军事务与外交政策专家布鲁斯·琼斯表示，“中国正在投入大量资源，努力成为世界领先的海洋强国”。他说，美国在海洋科学领域曾长期占据主导地位。如今，中国正在缩小差距，这不仅增强了它的军事能力，也为其水下作战提供了必要的知识储备。

With mapping of this nature, “you can use it for science, and you can use it for warfare,” Dr. Jones said. “It’s a rare-earth play, it’s a scientific play, and it’s a strategic play all at once,” he said.

琼斯博士说，这种性质的海底测绘，“你可以用于科学，也可以用于战争”。他表示，“它同时涉及稀土资源、科学研究以及战略布局。”

The atlas, according to materials published on the China Geological Survey website, maps the locations and concentrations of dozens of resources, drawing from two decades of research and samplings at more than 10,000 locations. The China Geological Survey said the atlas included the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, where China claims territory that neighboring nations consider theirs.

根据中国地质调查局网站发布的材料，这本图集标示了数十种资源的位置分布和储量情况，利用了过去20年的研究成果以及在1万多个地点采集的样本。中国地质调查局表示，该图集涵盖东海和黄海，而中国在这些海域的领土主张与邻国存在冲突。

China controls most of the world’s supply of key critical metals and rare earths, which are essential ingredients in modern weapons and technologies, and the Chinese government recently approved a five-year plan that lists the development of deep-sea minerals a priority. China has used its dominance to political ends, for example by restricting exports to the United States and Japan during disputes with those countries.

中国控制着全球大部分关键金属和稀土资源的供应，这些都是现代武器和技术不可或缺的原材料。中国政府最近还批准了一项五年规划，将深海矿产的开发列为优先事项。中国将这种主导地位用于政治目的，例如在与美国和日本发生争端时，限制对这两国的出口。

Japan is developing its own seabed mining program, in part to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies. In February, the government said it had successfully retrieved mud rich in rare earths from depths of more than 6,000 meters, an achievement that Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, hailed as a “world’s first.” Japan and the United States have made commitments to support each others’ seabed mining projects.

日本正在发展自己的海底采矿项目，部分原因是为了减少对中国的依赖。今年2月，日本政府表示已成功从6000多米深的海底采集到富含稀土的泥浆，日本首相高市早苗称赞这一成就为“世界首创”。日本和美国还承诺相互支持彼此的海底采矿项目。

The Trump administration has made seabed mining a priority. It hopes to issue mining leases near Pacific Ocean territories like American Samoa. It is also plans to permit commercial mining outside of U.S. territorial waters without international approval.

特朗普政府已将海底采矿列为优先事项，希望发放美属萨摩亚等太平洋领地附近的采矿许可。同时，它还计划在未经国际批准的情况下允许在美国领海以外的海域进行商业采矿。

China’s mining atlas has strategic importance in bolstering its claim for disputed waters, according to Yun Sun, who leads a Chinese foreign policy program at the Stimson Center, a foreign affairs research organization in Washington.

华盛顿外交政策研究机构史汀生中心的中国外交政策项目负责人孙韵表示，中国这份深海矿产地图集在强化其对争议海域的主权主张方面具有战略意义。

There are a number of international law customs that determine national boundaries. Consistently occupying and managing a territory can strengthen a country’s claim to it.

确定国家边界有许多国际法惯例。持续占领和管理某片领土可以增强一国对该领土的主权主张。

That means nonmilitary actions, like science and conservation, can be used to exert authority over an area, Dr. Sun said. Publicly announcing the atlas could be interpreted as China making a statement that it commands this maritime domain.

孙韵表示，这意味着一些非军事行动（如科学研究和环境保护）也可以用于对某片区域行使权力。公开该地图集可以解读为中国在宣示其对相关海域的管辖权。

Chinese deep-sea exploration ships have been spotted in the territorial waters of other countries, such as near the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. China has also reportedly tested seabed mining equipment in waters that Taiwan and the Philippines claim.

中国的深海勘探船曾被发现在其他国家的领海活动，例如阿拉斯加阿留申群岛附近。据报道，中国还在台湾和菲律宾声称拥有主权的海域测试过海底采矿设备。

Detailed mapping also helps countries claim additional seafloor, said Larry Mayer, director of the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping at the University of New Hampshire.

新罕布什尔大学海岸与海洋测绘中心主任拉里·迈耶表示，详细的测绘还能帮助各国争取更多海底区域的主张。

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea sets a boundary of 200 nautical miles from a nation’s coastline as an “exclusive economic zone” where it has special rights over resources, but a country can claim more seabed if it can prove that its continental shelf extends beyond this zone.

《联合国海洋法公约》规定，各国海岸线向外延伸200海里为“专属经济区”，在该范围内拥有资源开发的特殊权利。但如果一个国家能够证明其大陆架延伸超过这一范围，就可以对更多海底区域提出主张。

This has been a significant driver of ocean exploration efforts, Dr. Mayer said. In 2023, the United States made public detailed maps made over the previous decade claiming about 380,000 square miles of expanded continental shelf, including in the Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

迈耶指出，这已成为推动海洋勘探活动的重要动力。2023年，美国公布了过去十年绘制的详细地图，声索了约100万平方公里的延伸大陆架，涉及北极、墨西哥湾以及大西洋和太平洋部分海域。

China has also presented proposals to the United Nations to extend its claim to the continental shelf, based on geological map evidence, drawing borders that Japan disputes as overlapping with its exclusive economic zone.

中国也曾向联合国提交提案，基于地质测绘证据，试图扩大其大陆架主张范围，其划定的边界与日本的专属经济区发生重叠，引发日方争议。

In the South China Sea (which the atlas does not cover), China has redrawn boundaries in waters also claimed by Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines and has taken other steps, including building artificial islands, to support its claims.

在南中国海（该地图集未涵盖这片海域），中国重新划定了台湾、越南和菲律宾同样声称拥有主权的海域边界，并采取了包括建造人工岛在内的其他措施来支持其主张。

Seabed mining is controversial. Critics say not enough is known about deep-sea environments to safely mine them. Research shows that mining would reduce the abundance of deep-sea animals and that ecosystems are slow to recover. Numerous countries as well as environmental organizations have called for moratoriums or an industry ban.

海底采矿本身也存在争议。批评者认为，类对深海环境的了解尚不足以安全地进行采矿。研究显示，采矿活动会减少深海生物数量，而海洋生态系统的恢复速度非常缓慢。许多国家和环保组织呼吁暂停甚至禁止这一行业。

Tim Cook is ending his illustrious stint as chief executive of Apple. The soft-spoken operator accomplished the near impossible, filling the shoes of the visionary co-founder Steve Jobs, turning the iPhone from a cultural phenomenon into a financial juggernaut and transforming his company into a $4 trillion goliath — growing its market value by $682 million per day, on average, for 15 years. By the metrics investors care about, Mr. Cook is nothing short of a rock star.

蒂姆·库克即将结束他在苹果公司担任首席执行官的辉煌任期。这位言辞温和的经营者完成了近乎不可能的任务，接过富有远见的联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯的衣钵，将iPhone从一种文化现象转变为金融巨擘，并将公司打造成市值4万亿美元的庞然大物——15年来，苹果的市值平均每天增长6.82亿美元。就投资者关心的指标而言，库克无疑是一位摇滚巨星。

But when one considers his role in the sweep of American history, his legacy grows more complicated, for much of Apple’s success is due to his move to consolidate virtually all of his company’s manufacturing in China.

但如果从美国历史的长河来看，他的遗产就变得复杂得多，因为苹果的成功在很大程度上归功于他将公司几乎所有的制造业务都整合到了中国。

The results have been profound. Apple under Mr. Cook played a significant role in the rise of China’s middle class, and produced the iPhone in enormous quantities at a low enough cost that roughly half of all Americans own one. His choices also dramatically escalated China’s economic standing and technological prowess to the point that its increasingly authoritarian leaders now see themselves as powerful rivals to the U.S.

其结果是深远的。在库克的领导下，苹果在中国中产阶级的崛起中发挥了重要作用，并以足够低的价格大规模生产iPhone，使得大约一半的美国人都拥有一部。他的选择也显著提升了中国的经济地位和技术实力，以至于其日益威权的领导层现在将自己视为美国的强力竞争对手。

If President Xi Jinping’s imperialist instincts fade, Mr. Cook will be remembered for helping bring capitalism and liberalism to one of the most populous countries in the world. If the tensions between China and the United States continue to escalate, especially if Beijing makes good on its threats to attack the island of Taiwan — a democracy that happens to produce the vast majority of the world’s semiconductor chips — Mr. Cook will be remembered differently. He will be the man who not only squandered his company’s future (as it is still highly dependent on China), but also handed the West’s technological prowess to its biggest threat.

如果习近平主席的帝国主义本能消退，库克将因帮助资本主义和自由主义带入这个世界上人口最多的国家之一而被铭记。但如果中美紧张局势持续升级，特别是如果北京兑现其攻击台湾的威胁——这个民主政体恰好生产了世界上绝大多数的半导体芯片，库克的名声将截然不同。他将被视为不仅葬送了公司前途（因为苹果仍高度依赖中国），而且将西方的技术优势拱手让给了西方的最大威胁。

History can be a brutal editor. Consider Jack Welch, the long-lionized chief executive of General Electric. In his two-decade reign, which ended in 2001, Mr. Welch earned shareholders an astonishing 21 percent annual return — just a nudge less than Mr. Cook’s — and was anointed “manager of the century” by Fortune magazine. His moves into financial engineering were the stuff of Wall Street legend — until the financial crisis exposed the company as hollowed out and recklessly overleveraged. By 2009, G.E. was begging for government-backed infusions of cash; its stock price had plummeted 85 percent. In 2022, author David Gelles recast Mr. Welch as “the man who broke capitalism.”

历史可能是一位残酷的评选者。想想通用电气长期备受推崇的首席执行官杰克·韦尔奇。在他截至2001年的20年任期内，韦尔奇为股东赚取了惊人的21%年化回报率——仅比库克略低一点——并被《财富》杂志誉为“世纪经理人”。他在金融工程方面的举措曾是华尔街的传奇，直到金融危机暴露了这家公司已经空心化且杠杆过高、风险巨大。到2009年，通用电气不得不乞求政府注资；其股价暴跌了85%。2022年，作家戴维·盖尔斯将韦尔奇重新定义为“毁掉资本主义的人”。

Mr. Cook started at Apple as a senior vice president of operations in 1998 and quickly overhauled Apple’s manufacturing strategy to rely on inexpensive labor overseas. By owning the process rather than owning the factories, Apple could retain control over production while offloading the manufacturing risks to suppliers. Mr. Cook also wrested royalties from app makers and moved into media streaming and advertising, all part of a “services” push that was twice as profitable as the hardware Apple sold.

库克于1998年加入苹果担任运营高级副总裁，并迅速改革了苹果的制造战略，转而依靠海外廉价劳动力。通过掌控生产流程而非拥有工厂，苹果在保持生产控制权的同时，将制造风险转嫁给了供应商。库克还向应用开发商征收版税，并进军流媒体和广告业务，这一切都是“服务”战略的一部分，其利润率是苹果硬件销售额的两倍。

Year after year, Mr. Cook removed microrisks from Apple’s business and made its financials smoother and more predictable. But at the same time, he proved blind to a macrorisk, moving the vast bulk of Apple’s operations to China just as the authoritarian country was turning into America’s fiercest adversary.

年复一年，库克排除了苹果业务中的微观风险，使其财务表现更加平稳且可预测。但与此同时，他却对宏观风险视而不见，就在中国这个威权国家转变为美国最激烈的对手之际，他将苹果绝大部分的业务转移到了那里。

Based on my research, I am convinced that no company has done more to enable President Xi. Since 2008, Apple has worked with suppliers to train 30 million workers, principally in China. It has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the mainland and facilitated an epic transfer of practical knowledge in how to make things to hundreds of Chinese factories. I wrote in my book that at two points, Apple’s Cupertino, Calif., headquarters was sending so many engineers to orchestrate production that it convinced United Airlines to fly thrice weekly from San Francisco to Chengdu and Hangzhou, arguing it would buy so many first-class seats that the route would be profitable even if the rest of the plane were empty.

根据我的研究，我确信没有哪家公司比苹果为习近平提供的助力更多。自2008年以来，苹果与供应商合作培训了3000万名工人，主要是在中国。它在大陆投资了数千亿美元，并促进了一场关于制造工艺的史诗级制造实践知识转移，惠及了数百家中国工厂。我在书中写道，有两次，苹果位于加州库比蒂诺的总部派出极多的工程师去协调生产，以至于它说服美联航开通每周三班从旧金山飞往成都和杭州的航班，理由是苹果购买的头等舱座位足以让这条航线在飞机其余座位全空的情况下也能盈利。

The price of doing business in China was turning a blind eye to its increasingly authoritarian impulses. Apple has removed tens of thousands of apps from its Chinese App Store at Beijing’s direction. It moved mainland Chinese users’ iCloud data to servers operated by a state-owned company, likely exposing their personal data to the government. (Apple says it’s adhering to China’s laws.)

在中国开展业务的代价是对该国日益增长的威权冲动视而不见。苹果根据北京的指示，从中国的应用商店下架了数万个应用。它将中国大陆用户的iCloud数据迁移到一家国有企业运营的服务器上，这可能将个人数据暴露给政府。（苹果称其遵守中国法律。）

Mr. Cook has spoken out in favor of voting rights, the environment, gun control and L.G.B.T.Q. protections, but he has been conspicuously silent on China’s subjugation of Hong Kong protesters, the persecution of Uyghurs in Xinjiang or the 20-year sentence of the pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Most revealing of all, since taking over as Apple’s C.E.O., he has not set foot in Taiwan — a thriving democracy, but a rogue province from Beijing’s perspective. That the chief of the world’s most iconic technology company won’t visit its most important chip suppliers is telling.

库克曾公开支持投票权、环境保护、枪支管制和LGBTQ权益，但对于中国镇压香港抗议者、迫害新疆维吾尔人，以及判处亲民主媒体大亨黎智英20年监禁等事件，他一直保持引人注目的沉默。最能说明问题的是，自担任苹果CEO以来，他从未踏足台湾——一个充满活力的民主政体，但在北京看来却是一个叛乱省份。作为全球最具标志性的科技公司掌门人，却不愿访问其最重要的芯片供应商所在地，这本身就很说明问题。

Apple is hardly alone in this. Many American companies, in their scramble for lower prices, have effectively given away swaths of their practical know-how, machinery, processes and talent to China. They gave President Xi the resources he needed to attain dominance in fields as disparate as rare-earth magnets, solar wafers, steel and pharmaceuticals. The billions China is pouring into building electric cars alone could leave Detroit in the dust.

苹果并非个例。许多美国公司为了追求更低的价格，实际上已经将大量的实用技术、机械设备、工艺流程和人才拱手让给了中国。它们为习近平提供了所需资源，帮助中国在稀土磁铁、太阳能硅片、钢铁和制药等迥异领域取得主导地位。仅中国投入于电动汽车领域的数十亿美元，就可能让底特律望尘莫及。

China is building far more than the country needs or that importers want. When Western economists criticize the resulting oversupply as inefficient, they’re missing the point. China’s goal isn’t to provide a return to shareholders. It is to control the world by commanding its material production. As economist Noah Smith observed, “profit is not the goal of war.”

中国的产能远超国内需求或进口商所需。当西方经济学家批评这种过度供应的低效时，他们其实没抓住重点。中国的目标不是为股东提供回报，而是通过掌握全球物质生产来控制世界。正如经济学家诺亚·史密斯所观察到的：“利润不是战争的目标。”

Despite the Biden and Trump administrations’ efforts to slow the country’s momentum, China’s share of global industrial production is expected to rise to 45 percent by 2030, up from about 30 percent in 2025. And Beijing just implemented new rules to punish foreign companies taking action to divest from China.

尽管拜登和特朗普政府努力减缓中国的这种势头，但到2030年，中国在全球工业生产中的份额预计将从2025年的约30%上升到45%。而且北京刚刚实施了新规定，对采取措施撤资中国的外国企业予以惩罚。

Apple, for its part, has made tentative moves to expand iPhone assembly to India, but the bulk of its supply chain is still deeply rooted in China.

就苹果而言，虽然已经初步尝试将iPhone组装扩展到印度，但其供应链的主体依然深植于中国。

John Ternus, Mr. Cook’s successor, is relatively young, capable and ambitious. There’s reason to hope he can rethink and unlearn some of Mr. Cook’s core assumptions. But Mr. Cook isn’t retiring; he’s stepping up to executive chairman. And Mr. Ternus may not be able to chart a new course if the architect of the current strategy sits above him.

库克的继任者约翰·特纳斯相对年轻、能干且有抱负。我们有理由希望他能重新思考并摒弃库克的一些核心假设。但库克并未退休，而是转任执行董事长。如果当前战略的架构师依然高居其上，特纳斯未必能开辟出新的航向。

Of course, no businessman can ever truly know the historical consequences of his actions. The Cambridge historian Christopher Clark argued that the catastrophe that was the First World War resulted from the aggregation of rational, defensible decisions made by statesmen in a complex world. Mr. Cook’s decision to consolidate Apple’s operations into China fits that mold: Every decision to deepen his footprint in the country made sense at the time.

当然，没有哪个商人能真正预知其行为的历史后果。剑桥大学历史学家克里斯托弗·克拉克认为，第一次世界大战的惨剧是政治人士们在复杂世界中做出的一系列理性且合理的决策叠加的结果。库克将苹果业务向中国集中的决策也符合这种模式：当时每一步加深在华业务布局的决定，在当时看来都是合理的。

Those decisions also made Apple and its investors enormous sums of money. But stock prices don’t reflect the costs to our economy and our own gutted industries.

这些决定确实为苹果及其投资者赚取了巨额财富。但股票价格并不能反映这些决策给我们的经济，以及我们那些被掏空的产业所带来的代价。

On Thursday morning, Washington time, a senior Iranian official wrote on X that the country’s fighters were hiding in sea caves near the Strait of Hormuz, preparing to “devastate the aggressors.”

华盛顿时间周四上午，一位伊朗高级官员在X平台上发文称，该国的战士正隐藏在霍尔木兹海峡附近的海蚀洞中，准备“重创侵略者”。

Eighteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat” that is “putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“对任何在霍尔木兹海峡水域布设水雷的船只，”特朗普总统18分钟后在Truth Social上发帖说。“我已命令美国海军开火击毁。”

Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, interrupted by a cease-fire that he extended indefinitely this week, has morphed from all-out bombardment to a volatile, costly standoff at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

特朗普对伊朗的战争在本周被他无限期延长的停火协议打断，现在已从全面轰炸转变为波斯湾入口处一场不稳定且代价高昂的对峙。

周四，特朗普总统在白宫椭圆形办公室。此前，他在社交媒体上发文称，他在霍尔木兹海峡对峙上“有的是时间，而伊朗没有”。

Neither side appears eager to return to the violence that ensnared much of the Middle East before the April 7 cease-fire, though both insist they are ready for it. And neither side is showing signs of capitulating to the other’s demands. The result is round after round of taunts, threats and maritime incidents, with many of the tensions playing out on social media even as the economic costs mount and Mr. Trump faces a political backlash at home.

双方似乎都不愿重返4月7日停火前席卷中东大部分地区的暴力冲突，尽管双方都坚称已做好准备。双方也都没有表现出向对方让步的迹象。结果就是一轮又一轮的嘲讽、威胁和海上事件，许多紧张局势甚至在社交媒体上展开，与此同时，经济成本不断上升，特朗普在国内也面临政治反弹。

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said she had assumed that a diplomatic deal would resolve the standoff quickly, given the economic and strategic costs to the United States of the Strait of Hormuz’s staying closed. But Ms. Maloney said she was now adjusting her expectations amid Iran’s determination to maintain control of the strait as leverage and the strategic quandary that Mr. Trump has found himself in.

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会副会长、伊朗问题专家苏珊·马洛尼表示，她原本以为鉴于霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭给美国带来的经济和战略代价，外交协议会很快解决这场对峙。但她说，现在她正在调整自己的预期，因为伊朗决心将控制海峡作为筹码，而特朗普也陷入了战略困境。

“He’s stuck with this, for as long as the strait remains closed,” Ms. Maloney said. “The speed with which this became a quagmire for the United States has been, also, quite stunning.”

“只要海峡保持关闭，他就会一直被困在这里，”马洛尼说。“这场危机如此迅速地变成美国的泥潭，也让人相当震惊。”

Mr. Trump insisted on Thursday that he had “all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t,” in the standoff over the strait. He posted a column by a hawkish commentator, Marc A. Thiessen, arguing that Mr. Trump should give Iran 72 hours before he resumes combat and opens the Strait of Hormuz by force.

特朗普周四坚称，在海峡对峙中，他“有的是时间，而伊朗没有”。他转发了一篇鹰派评论员马克·A·西森的专栏文章，主张特朗普应在72小时后恢复战斗，并以武力重新打开霍尔木兹海峡。

“If they don’t want to make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

“如果他们不想达成协议，那我就用军事手段结束它，”特朗普周四在白宫对记者说。

But in reality, Mr. Trump faces an array of bad options, experts say. The U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping in the strait — combined with Iran’s counter-blockade on other traffic — continues to squeeze global energy and commodity markets, risking more price inflation in the United States as Mr. Trump’s Republican Party already faces a daunting midterm election season.

但专家们表示，实际上特朗普面临着一系列糟糕的选项。美国对伊朗海峡航运的封锁——加上伊朗对其他船只的反封锁——继续挤压全球能源和大宗商品市场，这可能会在美国引发更多的物价上涨，与此同时，特朗普所在的共和党已面临艰难的中期选举季。

Iran appears determined to extract concessions from Mr. Trump, like sanctions relief and a compromise on its nuclear program, before agreeing to any diplomatic solution over the impasse. Ms. Maloney said that all signs pointed to Iran’s leaders continuing to believe that their tolerance for economic pain remains higher than that of Mr. Trump.

伊朗似乎决心在同意任何外交解决方案之前，从特朗普那里榨取让步，例如解除制裁以及在其核计划上达成妥协。马洛尼表示，所有迹象都表明，伊朗领导人依然认为他们对经济痛苦的承受能力高于特朗普。

Seeking a military solution could be even more painful for the United States. Airstrikes alone are unlikely to do enough damage to Iran’s military to prevent it from being able to fight back, said Seth G. Jones, the defense and security department president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Reopening the strait by force was possible, he said, but would involve the risk of large U.S. warships getting sunk, and of “U.S. Marines or Army soldiers seizing an island or shoreline and getting killed,” he said.

寻求军事解决方案对美国来说可能会更加痛苦。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心国防与安全部主任塞思·G·琼斯表示，仅靠空袭不太可能对伊朗军队造成足够的伤害，从而阻止其反击。他说，通过武力重新开放海峡是可能的，但这将面临大型美国军舰被击沉的风险，以及“美国海军陆战队或陆军士兵夺取岛屿或海岸线并遭受伤亡”的风险。

Mr. Trump also still faces the quandary of how to deal with Iran’s 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which could be enough for a dozen nuclear bombs. Mr. Trump insisted again on Thursday that he was determined to prevent Iran’s capability, warning that the alternative to U.S. success in Iran could be “nuclear holocaust” in European cities within reach of Iranian missiles.

特朗普还面临着如何处理伊朗约440公斤高浓铀的困境，这些铀足以制造约12枚核弹。他在周四再次坚称，他决心阻止伊朗的核能力，并警告称，如果美国在伊朗问题上失败，欧洲城市可能面临伊朗导弹射程内的“核浩劫”。

Iran faces hard choices, too. Its strikes on U.S. bases and on Arab countries around the Persian Gulf were effective in getting Mr. Trump to declare a cease-fire. But Mr. Jones said that achieving more by force would be difficult for Iran, especially given the blockade and the damage already done to its military.

伊朗也面临艰难抉择。它对美国基地和波斯湾周边阿拉伯国家的打击，有效迫使特朗普宣布停火。但琼斯表示，伊朗很难通过武力获得更多成果，尤其是考虑到当前的封锁以及其军队已遭受的损失。

周三在霍尔木兹海峡的船只。美国已对该海峡的伊朗航运实施封锁，而伊朗则对其他来往船只实施了反封锁。

“It’s kind of a game of chicken right now,” Mr. Jones said. Both in Washington and Tehran, he added, military officials were likely telling political leaders that “the military instrument is not likely to be successful in getting to any kind of a permanent solution.”

“现在有点像一场胆量比拼的游戏，”琼斯说。他补充道，在华盛顿和德黑兰，军方领导人很可能都在告诉政治领导人，“军事手段不太可能成功达成任何永久性解决方案。”

Given the military impasse and the economic pain on both sides, a negotiated resolution appears to be the most logical way out of the crisis, Mr. Jones and other analysts said. But the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could escalate quickly, as both Iran and the United States try to show their resolve in the narrow waterway while also trying diplomacy.

鉴于军事僵局和双方的经济痛苦，琼斯和其他分析人士表示，通过谈判达成解决方案似乎是摆脱这场危机最合乎逻辑的方式。但在试图通过外交手段解决问题的同时，伊朗和美国也试图在狭窄水道中展示决心，霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势可能迅速升级。

“You have a situation that’s not in equilibrium,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, referring to the contrast between the efforts at diplomacy and the “test of wills” at sea.

中东研究所高级研究员布莱恩·卡图利斯谈到外交努力与海上“意志考验”之间的反差时说：“目前的局势并不平衡。”

On Wednesday, Iran released a video showing its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps intercepting two cargo ships near the strait, with balaclava-clad forces scaling one of the vessels on a ladder. On Thursday, the U.S. military released a dramatic video of its own, showing Navy forces descending on ropes from helicopters onto a tanker it said was carrying oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean.

周三，伊朗发布了一段视频，显示其伊斯兰革命卫队在海峡附近拦截了两艘货船，蒙面部队通过梯子攀登其中一艘船。周四，美国军方也发布了自己的一段戏剧性视频，显示海军部队从直升机索降至一艘油轮上，美方称该油轮当时正在印度洋运载伊朗石油。

At the same time, Mr. Trump has said he wants to give diplomacy a chance. Referring to his cease-fire extension this week, he told reporters at the White House on Thursday that Iran was having trouble negotiating because “they are very disorganized right now.”

与此同时，特朗普表示他希望给外交机会。他在周四白宫对记者谈到本周延长停火时说，伊朗目前“非常混乱”，所以谈判有困难。

“They want to make a deal,” Mr. Trump said. “We thought we’d give them a little chance to get some of their turmoil resolved.”

“他们想达成协议，”特朗普说。“我们认为应该给他们一点时间来解决自身的混乱。”

Responding to a reporter’s question, Mr. Trump said that Americans would still need to wait “a little while” before gas prices come down.

在回答记者提问时，特朗普表示，美国人还需要再等“一段时间”才能看到油价下降。

The world is eager to know how long that will be. A long-term impasse between the United States and Iran carries enormous risks of its own, given the critical goods — not only oil and natural gas but also fertilizer and helium — that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

全世界都急于知道这段时间会有多长。美国与伊朗之间的长期僵持本身就带有巨大风险，因为通常通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的关键物资不仅有石油和天然气，还有化肥和氦气等。

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, told CNBC on Thursday that the crisis was worsening by the day.

国际能源署执行董事法提赫·比罗尔周四告诉CNBC，这场危机正在日益恶化。

“The longer it lasts, the longer time we will need to get back where we were before the war,” he said.

“持续得越久，我们就需要越长时间才能恢复到战前状态，”他说。

Cliff Kupchan, chairman emeritus of the Eurasia Group, a political risk assessment firm, said the risk of a monthslong shutdown of the strait was only beginning to “enter the collective mind of the markets.”

政治风险评估公司欧亚集团名誉主席克里夫·库普昌表示，海峡关闭长达数月的可能性才刚刚开始“进入市场的集体意识”。

“It’s actually a scenario that I think political analysts and markets need to get their heads around more,” Mr. Kupchan said. “We’re in uncharted territory.”

“这实际上是一个我认为政治分析师和市场都需要认真思考的情景，”库普昌说。“我们正处于未知领域。”

Over the past two years, a furry monster with bunny ears and a vicious line of serrated teeth became the subject of a global craze, as shoppers waited hours in line or paid hundreds or thousands of dollars for the most coveted Labubus.

过去两年，一只长着兔耳、锯齿状锋利牙齿的毛茸怪物掀起了一股全球热潮。购物者为了买到最抢手的Labubu，不惜排队数小时，或花费数百乃至数千美元。

The boom turned Pop Mart, the Chinese company that sells Labubus, into a global brand. But a test of the doll — the results of which The New York Times has independently confirmed — showed that clothing on certain Labubu dolls contains cotton from the Xinjiang region of western China, which the U.S. government has banned because of its association with forced labor.

这股热潮让销售Labubu的中国公司泡泡玛特成为全球知名品牌。然而，一项针对Labubu玩偶的检测——其结果已由《纽约时报》独立证实——显示，部分Labubu玩偶的服装含有来自中国西部新疆地区的棉花。美国政府因该地区与强迫劳动存在关联，已禁止进口此类棉花。

For businesses like Pop Mart, selling products that contain cotton banned in the United States could have severe consequences. Companies found in violation of a 2021 law that restricts imports from Xinjiang can be put on a blacklist that bans all their products. The ban does not apply to importers that can prove goods were not made with forced labor.

对于泡泡玛特这样的企业而言，销售含有美国禁运棉花的产品可能面临严重后果。根据2021年的一项法律，如果公司被认定违反限制从新疆进口货物的规定，就可能被列入黑名单，导致其所有产品被禁止进口。该禁令不适用于能够证明货物未使用强迫劳动的进口商。

A spokeswoman for Pop Mart said that it would conduct an investigation into the presence of Xinjiang cotton in its supply chains, and that the company held itself and its suppliers to “the highest standards.” Pop Mart said that only a small percentage of its dolls used cotton for apparel, and that it was working on a plan to use alternative materials, rather than cotton, in its products for the U.S. market.

泡泡玛特的一位发言人表示，公司将对供应链中出现新疆棉的情况进行调查，并称公司对自身及其供应商要求达到“最高标准”。泡泡玛特表示，其玩偶中只有一小部分使用棉花制作服装，公司正在制定计划，在面向美国市场的产品中用其他材料替代棉花。

Nonprofit groups have submitted information about Pop Mart’s use of cotton from Xinjiang and other alleged labor violations at its Chinese factories to officials at U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which would be responsible for enforcing an import ban.

非营利组织已向美国海关与边境保护局提交了关于泡泡玛特使用新疆棉以及其中国工厂涉嫌其他劳工违规的信息，该机构负责执行进口禁令。

The agency did not respond to requests for comment.

美国海关与边境保护局未回应置评请求。

A test of the cotton in a Labubu was commissioned last year by the Campaign for Uyghurs, a Washington-based nonprofit that opposes the persecution of Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim ethnic group concentrated in Xinjiang.

对Labubu玩偶中棉花的检测是去年由总部位于华盛顿的非营利组织“维吾尔运动”(Campaign for Uyghurs)委托进行的。该组织反对针对维吾尔人的迫害，维吾尔人是主要居住在中国新疆的穆斯林少数民族。

That test was conducted in June by Testrigin Technology Center Limited, a product testing facility in Taiwan. Isotopes in cotton vary depending on where it is grown. The Testrigin lab found that samples from a Labubu doll contained cotton grown in Xinjiang.

该检测于6月由台湾的产品检测机构Testrigin Technology Center Limited进行。棉花的同位素特征因产地不同而存在差异。Testrigin实验室发现，来自Labubu玩偶的样本含有新疆种植的棉花。

The Times bought 20 Labubus that were listed as containing cotton late last year from various retailers and had them independently examined to identify the source of the cotton. The people who reviewed the dolls for The Times did not want to be identified because they did not have permission to speak publicly.

《纽约时报》去年年底从多家零售商处购买了20只标称含有棉花的Labubu，并对其进行了独立检测以确定棉花来源。为《纽约时报》进行检测的人员不愿公开身份，因为他们未获得公开发言的许可。

Pieces of clothing from 16 of the 20 dolls were identified as containing cotton from Xinjiang, mainly their T-shirts. The dolls themselves are primarily made of polyester, but the outer part of some of the dolls, including the clothes, are described as containing cotton.

在这20只玩偶中，有16只的服装被鉴定为含有新疆棉，主要为它们的T恤。玩偶本体主要由聚酯纤维制成，但部分玩偶的外层（包括服装）被描述为含有棉花成分。

The dolls that contained Xinjiang cotton were bought from Amazon, eBay, Shein, AliExpress and other retail channels, as well as directly from Pop Mart. They were from the Labubu lines called Fall in the Wild and Flip With Me. While counterfeit Labubu dolls, known as Lafufus, have proliferated online, each of the dolls tested contained a QR code that allowed The Times to verify it as an authentic product.

这些含有新疆棉的玩偶购自亚马逊、eBay、Shein、AliExpress等零售渠道，以及泡泡玛特官网。它们来自名为“Fall in the Wild”和“Flip With Me”的Labubu系列。虽然网上假冒Labubu（俗称Lafufu）泛滥，但每只接受检测的玩偶均含有二维码，《纽约时报》据此验证其为正品。

With the wave of global interest in Labubus, the Chinese government has embraced Pop Mart as an icon of Chinese pop culture. Yet any potential legal violations by such a popular Chinese brand could be a test for the Trump administration, which has been wary of upsetting Chinese leaders before President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing next month.

随着Labubu在全球范围内受到追捧，中国政府已将其视为中国流行文化的标志性符号。然而，这样一个受欢迎的中国品牌若存在潜在违规，将对特朗普政府构成考验——在特朗普计划中的下月访华之前，政府一直谨慎避免激怒中国领导人。

A White House spokesman did not address the test results specifically, but he said the administration was monitoring for legal violations by importers and had initiated a broader investigation into the trade of goods made with forced labor.

白宫发言人未具体回应检测结果，但表示政府正在监控进口商的违法行为，并已启动对使用强迫劳动制造的商品贸易的更广泛调查。

Beijing denies any persecution of people in Xinjiang, where more than half the members of the population are part of Muslim ethnic groups. The government describes the programs it carries out in Xinjiang as poverty alleviation, as well as efforts to combat terrorism and separatism.

北京否认在新疆存在任何迫害行为。新疆人口中超过一半属于穆斯林少数民族。中国政府将自己在新疆开展的项目描述为扶贫，以及打击恐怖主义和分裂主义的努力。

But human rights groups and journalists have documented evidence of forced labor, forced sterilization and heavy surveillance of people who are not Han Chinese, a majority in most parts of China.

但人权组织和记者已记录下针对非汉族人群的强迫劳动、强迫绝育以及大规模监控的证据，而汉族是中国大部分地区的主要人口。

In January, experts at the United Nations said they were concerned about a persistent pattern of alleged state-imposed forced labor involving ethnic minorities in China, saying the practice may amount to enslavement and a crime against humanity.

今年1月，联合国专家表示，他们对所谓中国政府针对少数民族实施的持续性强迫劳动模式感到担忧，认为这种做法可能构成奴役和危害人类罪。

In 2021, Congress passed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which banned any product made in whole or in part in Xinjiang, unless the importer could prove it was not made with forced labor. The bill’s chief architect was Marco Rubio, a longtime critic of China, who was then a Republican senator and is now secretary of state. He has described the treatment of Uyghurs as genocide.

2021年，美国国会通过了《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》，禁止进口全部或部分在新疆生产的产品，除非进口商能证明其未使用强迫劳动。该法案的主要起草者是长期批评中国的共和党人马可·鲁比奥，他当时担任参议员，现任美国国务卿。他曾将对维吾尔人的待遇描述为种族灭绝。

The law also established an “entity list” of companies in Xinjiang that use forced labor to mine or manufacture goods. That list has 144 entries, though no new companies have been added since the Biden administration.

该法律还建立了一份“实体清单”，列入新疆使用强迫劳动开采或制造商品的公司。目前该清单有144个条目，但自拜登政府以来尚未新增公司。

Xinjiang produces more than 90 percent of China’s cotton, and about a fifth of the world’s cotton overall. Past investigations by The Times and others found Xinjiang cotton in the supply chains of many major retailers, though fear of penalties has led companies to adopt more rigorous vetting in recent years.

新疆生产的棉花占中国棉花总量的90%以上，占全球棉花总量的约五分之一。《纽约时报》和其他媒体以往的调查发现，许多大型零售商的供应链中都曾出现新疆棉。不过近年来，出于对处罚的担忧，企业已采用更严格的审查措施。

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act was “one of the most notorious and egregious laws in the 21st century,” and “a tool for U.S. politicians to destabilize Xinjiang.”

中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示，《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》“堪称21世纪最臭名昭著的恶法之一”，是“美国政客破坏新疆稳定的工具”。

Mr. Liu did not directly address the test results and the possibility that some Labubu products were in violation of the act, but he said China would defend the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.

刘鹏宇没有直接回应检测结果以及部分Labubu产品可能违反该法案的可能性，但他表示，中国将维护中国企业的合法权益。

Rushan Abbas, the founder of the Campaign for Uyghurs, said the group’s goal was to have Pop Mart products banned in the United States. Ms. Abbas, who is Uyghur American, works on behalf of the Uyghur population. Her sister disappeared in northwest China almost eight years ago.

“维吾尔运动”创始人鲁珊·阿巴斯表示，该组织的目标是在美国禁止泡泡玛特的产品。代表维吾尔群体发声的阿巴斯是维吾尔裔美国人。她的姐姐近八年前在中国西北地区失踪。

The Labubu Boom

Labubu热潮

Despite making many of the world’s toys, couches and electronics, China has struggled to create its own coveted consumer brands. So the rising popularity of the ugly-but-cute Labubu — now the focus of a new feature film with Sony — has been a rare triumph for Chinese soft power.

尽管中国制造了世界上的许多玩具、沙发和电子产品，却一直难以打造出备受追捧的本土消费品牌。因此，外形丑萌的Labubu如今人气飙升——目前索尼已为其拍摄一部新的故事片——对中国软实力而言是一次难得的胜利。

The Labubu was created by a Hong Kong-born artist, Kasing Lung, who drew on a childhood fascination with the elves and trolls of Nordic folklore. In 2019, Mr. Lung began collaborating with Pop Mart, which had opened in Beijing as a variety store.

Labubu由出生于香港的艺术家龙家升创作，他从小就对北欧民间传说中的精灵和巨魔着迷。2019年，龙家升开始与泡泡玛特合作，后者当时在北京以杂货店的形式开业。

Pop Mart fueled interest in Labubus by selling the dolls in what are known as blind boxes, a format popular in China where consumers don’t know which doll they have chosen until they open the packaging. A Labubu generally costs $20 to $40 on Pop Mart’s website, though some fetch much more on resale sites.

泡泡玛特通过销售“盲盒”来推动Labubu的热度，这种包装形式在中国很受欢迎，消费者在打开包装前不知道自己会拿到哪一款玩偶。泡泡玛特官网上Labubu的价格一般在20至40美元之间，但在二手转售平台上，有些价格要高得多。

Pop Mart has expanded in the United States through a mix of regular stores and “robo shops,” essentially Labubu vending machines. While most of Pop Mart’s business comes from China, revenue from the Americas rose more than 700 percent last year, accounting for 18 percent of overall sales.

泡泡玛特通过开设实体店和“机器人商店”（本质上是Labubu自动贩卖机）在美国扩张。虽然公司大部分业务仍来自中国，但去年来自美洲的收入增长超过700%，占总销售额的18%。

Fans have included celebrities like Rihanna and Kim Kardashian and the tennis star Naomi Osaka, who made headlines at the U.S. Open last August when she showed off a Labubu-style doll that she named “Billie Jean Bling.”

Labubu的粉丝包括蕾哈娜、金·卡戴珊以及网球明星大坂直美等名人。大坂直美去年8月在美国网球公开赛上展示一款她命名为“Billie Jean Bling”的Labubu风格玩偶，曾引起热议。

But the Labubu boom may have started to fade. Despite its banner 2025, the company’s stock tumbled last month as it faced pressure to find its next hit product. It may face more challenges if its apparent use of Xinjiang cotton provokes a backlash.

然而，Labubu热潮可能已开始消退。尽管2025年业绩亮眼，但由于面临寻找下一款爆款产品的压力，上个月公司股价大幅下跌。如果其明显使用新疆棉的情况引发反弹，公司可能面临更多挑战。

Using information on the doll tags and boxes, The Times tracked the 16 Labubus that had Xinjiang cotton back to three separate factories in southeastern China that were operated by third-party contractors.

《纽约时报》根据玩偶标签和包装上的信息追踪到这16只含有新疆棉的Labubu，它们均来自中国东南部的三家工厂，这些工厂由第三方承包商运营。

One of these factories sits in an industrial park in Jiangxi Province. China Labor Watch, a nonprofit, carried out dozens of interviews last year at the factory, which employs more than 4,000 people. In a report published in January, the group documented what it said were various labor law violations, including a lack of protections for underage workers and people working without proper contracts.

其中一家工厂位于江西省的一个工业园区。非营利组织“中国劳工观察”去年在这家有4000多名工人的工厂进行了数十次面谈。该组织1月发布的报告记录了其所称的多种违反劳动法的行为，包括对未成年工人的保护缺失以及工人无正式合同工作等问题。

The spokeswoman for Pop Mart said it had carried out an independent audit of the factory after the China Labor Watch report.

前述泡泡玛特发言人表示，在“中国劳工观察”报告发布后，公司已对该工厂进行了独立审计。

Several lawmakers who were informed about the test results called for Labubus to be blocked from the United States. Representative John Moolenaar of Michigan, the Republican chairman of the House Select Committee on China, called the situation “unsurprising and unacceptable,” while Representative Ro Khanna of California, the committee’s highest-ranking Democrat, said it was evidence of the Trump administration’s failure to enforce trade laws.

几位获悉检测结果的议员呼吁禁止Labubu进入美国。密歇根州共和党众议员、众议院中国特别委员会主席约翰·穆勒纳尔称这种情况“毫不意外且不可接受”；该委员会的首席民主党人、加州众议员罗·卡纳则表示，这证明特朗普政府未能有效执行贸易法律。

“Pop Mart should prove that all of its dolls in the United States are slave-labor-free,” said Representative Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey, a Republican who is a co-chair for the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. “If they cannot, customs has the authority to stop all Labubu imports, and I will ask them to do so.”

“泡泡玛特应该证明其在美国销售的所有玩偶都不含奴工成分，”新泽西州共和党众议员克里斯托弗·H·史密斯说道，他是国会-行政部门中国委员会的联席主席。“如果他们无法证明，海关有权阻止所有Labubu进口，我将要求他们这样做。”

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act has rarely been used against consumer companies, and never for a product as viral as the Labubu, said Adrian Zenz, an expert on Uyghur forced labor.

研究维吾尔强迫劳动问题的专家郑国恩(Adrian Zenz)表示，《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》很少被用于针对消费品公司，也从未针对像Labubu这样病毒式传播的产品。

Under the law, if an interagency government panel reviews the evidence and finds that a company has violated the act, it can add the company to a sanctions list that would make it illegal to import any of their products. Customs officials can also detain the company’s shipments and demand an accounting of its supply chain, he said.

他指出，根据该法律，如果政府跨部门小组审查证据并认定某公司违法，就可以将其列入制裁名单，从而禁止进口该公司的任何产品。海关官员也可以扣留该公司的货物，并要求其提供供应链说明。

No one here can say exactly when it happened, but suddenly China is everywhere in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital.

没人能说清楚具体是从什么时候开始的，但突然间，中国的身影在印尼首都雅加达无处不在。

Compact Chinese electric cars weave through the streets. Chinese cosmetics crowd pharmacy shelves. Chinese hot pot restaurants and milk-tea chains have sprouted across the city’s many, many malls.

中国的紧凑型电动车在街头穿梭，中国的化妆品挤满药妆店货架，中国的火锅店和奶茶连锁在这座城市数不清的购物中心里迅速涌现。

“It’s all very sudden — they just came to this country, all the brands, including cars and drinks, without us knowing,” said Kavin Hibrizy Pradipto Eska, who recently traveled hours from his university to a motor show in northern Jakarta just to admire the Chinese cars on display.

“真是一下子就冒出来了——那些中国牌子，什么汽车啊饮料啊，不知不觉就涌进了这个国家，”卡文·希布里齐·普拉迪普托·埃斯卡说。他最近从自己就读的大学花了几个小时赶到雅加达北部的一个车展，就是为了看看展出的中国车。

Squeezed by cautious, penny-pinching consumers at home, Chinese companies are fanning out across the globe — from Brazil to the United Arab Emirates — in search of new ones. Indonesia, with its young, teeming population, is an obvious target.

面对国内消费者精打细算、不敢花钱的局面，中国企业正大举走出国门，从巴西到阿联酋，到处寻找新的消费者。拥有庞大年轻人口的印尼自然成为一个显而易见的目标。

But the courtship is complicated. China is already Indonesia’s largest investor and the biggest buyer of Indonesia’s natural resources, yet its presence is not always welcome. A flood of cheap Chinese goods has wiped out local jobs, and anti-Chinese sentiment, which has erupted into riots in the past, still simmers beneath the surface.

但这种“追求”并不是那么简单的事情。中国已经是印尼最大的投资者，也是其自然资源的最大买家，但这种存在并不总是受到欢迎。大量廉价中国商品的涌入挤掉了本地就业机会，而反华情绪——以前曾爆发为骚乱——至今仍暗流涌动。

And yet Chinese brands are winning over Indonesians. Companies like Mixue, Haidilao and BYD are reshaping how Indonesians see China. They are rising as American companies like Starbucks and McDonald’s struggle to win back young Indonesians, many of them Muslim, who have been boycotting American brands over U.S. support of Israel’s deadly attacks on civilians in Gaza.

尽管如此，中国品牌正在赢得印尼人的心。蜜雪冰城、海底捞和比亚迪等公司正在重塑印尼人对中国的看法。与此同时，星巴克和麦当劳等美国公司却在艰难地努力赢回印尼的年轻人——其中许多人是穆斯林，他们因美国支持以色列对加沙平民的致命打击而一直在抵制美国品牌。

For decades, China has been the world’s factory for items like vacuum cleaners, umbrellas and flip flops. But in the past few years, its companies have become household names, driving a sweeping technological shift across industries such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Chinese firms are now selling more of everything abroad, sending a tsunami of exports into every corner of the world, but especially to Southeast Asia.

几十年来，中国一直是生产吸尘器、雨伞和人字拖这类产品的世界工厂。但在过去几年里，很多中国企业成为了家喻户晓的名字，在太阳能电池板和电动汽车等行业推动了一场全面的技术变革。如今，中国企业向海外销售的各类商品越来越多，将出口产品如同海啸般送往全球各个角落，尤其是东南亚。

Large, fast-growing markets like Indonesia are increasingly vital for Chinese brands as U.S. trade barriers, including steep tariffs and restrictions on Chinese carmakers, close off what was once their largest export market.

像印尼这样规模庞大且快速增长的市场对中国品牌而言变得愈发重要。随着美国设置贸易壁垒——包括高额关税以及对中国汽车制造商的限制——这个曾经最大的出口市场正逐渐关闭。

That push into new markets is already shaping consumer choices for Mr. Kavin, 20. As a university student, he has no income yet. But once he does, he said, he plans to buy a Tiggo, a hybrid from the Chinese automaker Chery, because it looks cute and costs half as much as other foreign cars.

这种向新市场扩张的趋势已经在影响卡文这样的年轻消费者的选择。20岁的他还是一名大学生，目前没有收入。但他说，一旦开始赚钱，他打算买一辆奇瑞的混动车瑞虎，因为外形可爱，而且价格只有其他外国品牌的一半。

“China is just, like, the future for me,” Mr. Kavin said, acknowledging that the sentiment surprises even him. He used to associate Chinese products with poor quality, he said, but that assumption has faded as more Chinese brands have appeared around him, often at the forefront of new technology.

“对我来说，中国就像是未来，”卡文说。他也承认，这种想法连他自己都感到有些意外。他过去总把中国产品和质量不好联系在一起，但随着越来越多中国品牌出现在他身边，而且往往处在新技术的前沿，这种看法已经逐渐消退。

Electric vehicles changed Eski Badillah’s mind about Chinese companies. Mr. Eski, 35, is a remedial loan officer who repossesses borrowers’ motorbikes when they fall behind on payments. He started to notice the Chinese ones that he was apprehending.

电动车改变了埃斯基·巴迪拉对中国企业的看法。35岁的埃斯基是一名不良贷款处理专员，当借款人逾期还款时，他会收回他们的摩托车。他开始注意到自己收回的摩托车中有越来越多是中国品牌。

“Before, like 20 years ago, people would say: ‘Oh, what is this? It’s made in China,’” Mr. Eski said one recent afternoon, sitting outside a Mixue, the Chinese fast-food chain, in a residential Jakarta neighborhood. “We probably would laugh at it, the idea of a car or motorcycle from China.”

“以前，比如20年前，人们会说：‘这是什么？中国制造的，’”不久前的一个下午，埃斯基在雅加达一个居民区的蜜雪冰城门口坐着说道。“那时候提到中国制造的汽车或摩托车，我们大概会嗤之以鼻。”

“These days, that has changed,” he added. “The image of Chinese brands has become more positive.” When he has the money, he said, he plans to buy an electric vehicle from BYD.

“如今，情况已经变了，”他补充道。“中国品牌的形象变得正面了。”他说，等他有钱了，他打算买一辆比亚迪的电动车。

BYD and Geely, another top Chinese carmaker, are battling fierce competition at home and a glut of unsold electric vehicles. To survive, they have pushed aggressively into foreign markets. In Europe and the United States, their cars have faced a slew of trade barriers. Indonesia, by contrast, offers preferential tax rates to carmakers willing to build factories here.

比亚迪以及另一家中国大型汽车制造商吉利，正面临国内市场激烈的竞争和电动车库存过剩的问题。为了生存，它们大举进军海外市场。在欧洲和美国，它们的汽车遭遇了一系列贸易壁垒；相比之下，印尼则为愿意在当地建厂的汽车制造商提供优惠税率。

Chinese cars are “the most innovative, and they have the most features,” said Bramantya Adji Pratama, 27, a bank officer who was sharing hot pot with his partner at a location of the Chinese franchise Haidilao on a recent weekday.

“这些中国车最具创新性，而且配置也最丰富，”27岁的银行职员布拉曼蒂亚·阿吉·普拉塔马说。当时他正与伴侣正在一家海底捞吃火锅。

Nearby, a Haidilao employee stretched ribbons of dough into noodles, gyrating to a loud beat — part of the theatrics that have helped fuel the chain’s popularity. With 12 locations in Indonesia, Haidilao has exported more than just food, bringing a distinctive level of service that includes massages and manicures for customers waiting in line.

附近，一名海底捞员工随着强烈的节奏甩动面团，将其拉成长长的面条——这种表演式的服务正是这家连锁店大受欢迎的原因之一。海底捞在印尼已有12家门店，它输出的不只是食物，还包括一种独特的服务体验，比如为排队等座的食客提供按摩和美甲服务。

China is also exporting shopping habits. Indonesia has become one of the largest global markets for livestream shopping on TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance.

中国也在输出消费方式。印尼已成为TikTok全球最大的直播带货市场之一，而该平台归中国公司字节跳动所有。

Like many other young Indonesians who are tethered to their phones and constantly online, Lutfiah, 29, who goes by one name, discovered the Chinese makeup brand Skintific through social media influencers, she said. The brand hosts hourslong livestreams during which presenters demonstrate products, answer questions and offer discounts.

跟许多手机不离手、时刻挂在网上的印尼年轻人一样，29岁的卢提亚（她只有单名）表示，她是通过社交媒体上的网红了解到中国美妆品牌Skintific的。该品牌会进行长达数小时的直播，主播在直播中展示产品、回答问题并提供折扣。

“How I see China and Chinese people has changed because of some of the products I use,” she said.

“我对中国和中国人的看法因为我使用的一些产品而发生了改变，”她说。

Tauhid Ahmad, an economist at the Institute for Development Economics and Finance in Jakarta, said that South Korean pop music and culture were wildly popular in Indonesia a decade ago, but that Chinese dramas had overtaken them in popularity these days. He said many young Indonesians were unaware of the historical tensions between China and Indonesia.

雅加达经济与金融发展研究所的经济学家陶希德·艾哈迈德表示，十年前韩国流行音乐和文化在印尼非常火爆，但如今中国电视剧已经在受欢迎程度上超过了它们。他说，许多印尼年轻人并不了解中国与印尼之间的历史紧张关系。

“They don’t know about the past,” he said. “They believe that China is good because it is a rich country and they have good technology.”

“他们不了解过去，”他说。“他们认为中国很好，因为它是一个富裕的国家，而且拥有先进的技术。”

This shift is unfolding as some young consumers turn away from American brands. Boycott campaigns targeting McDonald’s, Starbucks and KFC have spread widely on social media, eating into sales and opening opportunities for rivals. The intensity of the boycott campaign has eased since Israel’s war with Hamas began in 2023, but many consumers are still avoiding those brands.

这种转变发生在一些年轻消费者开始远离美国品牌之际。针对麦当劳、星巴克和肯德基的抵制活动在社交媒体上广泛传播，这侵蚀了这些品牌的销售额，也为竞争对手创造了机会。自2023年以色列与哈马斯的战争爆发以来，抵制的强度有所减弱，但仍有不少消费者继续回避这些品牌。

In Jakarta, the embrace of all things Chinese is visible in places like Glodok, the city’s Chinatown, once known for its wholesale shops selling inexpensive goods. The area is now crowded with coffee shops and food stalls, set against restored facades and heritage temples.

在雅加达，唐人街格洛多克就是这种拥抱中国风潮的缩影。这里过去以批发廉价商品闻名，如今却遍布咖啡馆和小吃摊，映衬着周围修缮一新的建筑外墙和古老寺庙。

雅加达唐人街格洛多克市场的美食广场。

Restu Ramadhani Putri, 24, wanted to visit the neighborhood after seeing it featured on TikTok alongside impressive videos of China’s vast highways, trains and infrastructure.

24岁的雷丝杜·拉玛达尼·普特里说，她在TikTok上刷到了这个街区的视频，还看到那些特别震撼的中国高速路、高铁和基建画面，看完就想到唐人街转转。

“In the past, if we bought something from China, we would say, ‘Ugh, it’s from China,’” Ms. Restu said. “Now it’s like, ‘Wow, China is really cool.’”

“过去，如果我们买到中国的东西，会说‘呃，是中国的，’”雷丝杜说，“现在则变成‘哇，中国真酷。’”

When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role.

阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊担任伊朗最高领袖期间，对战争、和平及对美谈判等所有事务拥有绝对决策权。但他的继任者，也就是他的儿子，并未扮演同样的角色。

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son, is an elusive figure who has not been seen and whose voice has not been heard since he was appointed in March. Instead, a battle-hardened collective of commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and those aligned with them are the key decision makers on matters of security, war and diplomacy.

他的儿子阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自3月就任以来始终行踪成谜，从未公开露面，也未发表过任何讲话。取而代之的是，由伊斯兰革命卫队身经百战的指挥官及其盟友组成的集体，成了安全、战争与外交事务的核心决策者。

“Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board,” said Abdolreza Davari, a politician who served as senior adviser to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he was president and knows Mr. Khamenei.

“穆杰塔巴现在治理国家的方式就像是董事会主席，”曾在马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德总统任内担任高级顾问、与哈梅内伊相识的政治人士阿卜杜勒礼萨·达瓦里说。

“He relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members, and they collectively make all the decisions,” Mr. Davari said in a phone interview from Tehran. “The generals are the board members.”

“他高度依赖董事会成员的建议和指导，所有决策都由他们集体做出，”达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示。“这些将军们就是董事会成员。”

This account of Iran’s new power structure is based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials, two former officials, two members of the Revolutionary Guards, a senior cleric familiar with the inner workings of the system and three individuals who know Mr. Khamenei well. Nine other individuals with ties to the Guards and the government also described the command structure. They all spoke on the condition they not be identified because they were discussing sensitive matters of state.

本文对伊朗新权力结构的描述基于对六名伊朗高级官员、二名前官员、二名革命卫队成员、一名熟悉体系内部运作的资深神职人员，以及三名与哈梅内伊私交甚笃人士的采访。另有九名与卫队和政府有联系的人士也描述了这一指挥体系。由于涉及敏感国家事务，所有受访者均要求匿名。

Mr. Khamenei, who was selected by a council of senior clerics as the new supreme leader, has been in hiding since American and Israeli forces bombed his father’s compound on Feb. 28, where he also lived with his family. His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now. He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes.

穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊由高级神职人员委员会选为新任最高领袖，自2月28日美以联军轰炸他与家人共同居住的其父官邸后便一直躲藏。他的父亲、妻子和儿子均在此次空袭中丧生。如今，要接触到他极为困难且受到严格限制，他身边主要是一支由医生和医护人员组成的团队，正在为他治疗空袭中受的伤。

2月28日，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊德黑兰官邸的受损情况。

Senior commanders of the Guards and senior government officials do not visit him, fearing that Israel may trace them to him and kill him. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is also a heart surgeon, and the minister of health have both been involved in his care.

革命卫队高级指挥官和政府高官都没有去探望他，担心以色列会通过追踪他们找到并杀死他。本身是心脏外科医生的总统马苏德·佩泽什基安与卫生部长也参与了他的治疗工作。

Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health. One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery.

据四名了解其健康状况的伊朗高级官员透露，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊虽伤势严重，但神志清醒、思维清晰。他的一条腿接受了三次手术，目前正在等待安装假肢；他的一只手也做过手术，正在缓慢恢复；他的面部和嘴唇严重烧伤，导致说话困难。官员们补充说，他最终需要接受整形手术。

Mr. Khamenei has not recorded a video or audio message, the officials said, because he does not want to appear vulnerable or sound weak in his first public address. He has issued several written statements that have been posted online and read on state television.

官员们表示，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊至今未录制任何视频或音频信息，因为他不想在首次公开讲话中显得脆弱或声音虚弱。他已发布多份书面声明，在网上发布并由国家电视台宣读。

Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.

传递给他的信息都是手写密封在信封中，通过值得信赖的信使组成的人链接力传送——信使们驾车或骑摩托车，穿梭于公路和乡间小路，最终抵达他的藏身之处。他对各项事务的指示，也通过同样的方式传回。

The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei’s delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now. Reformist factions, as well as ultra-hard-liners, are still involved in political discussions. But analysts say that Mr. Khamenei’s close ties to the generals, whom he grew up with when he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war as a teenager, have made them the dominant force.

出于安全考虑、自身伤势以及难以接触的现实，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊至少在目前已将决策权下放给了将军们。改革派和极端强硬派仍参与政治讨论，但分析人士指出，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊与将军们的深厚渊源——他十几岁时志愿参加两伊战争，与他们一同成长——使军方成为了主导力量。

President Trump has said that the war, along with the killings of layers of Iran’s leaders and security establishment, has ushered in “regime change” and that the new leaders are “much more reasonable.” In reality, the Islamic republic has not been toppled. Power is now in the hands of an entrenched, hard-line military, and the broad influence of the clerics is waning.

特朗普总统曾表示，这场战争以及伊朗多层级领导人和安全机构人员的死亡已经带来了“政权更迭”，新领导人“理性得多”。但现实是，伊斯兰共和国并未被推翻，权力如今掌握在根基稳固的强硬派军方手中，而神职人员的广泛影响力正在减弱。

“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House who has contact with people in Iran. “There is, perhaps, deference to him. He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way. But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now.”

“穆杰塔巴尚未完全掌握指挥权或控制权，”与伊朗国内有联系的英国查塔姆研究所中东与北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基勒说。“人们或许对他表示尊重，他在形式上会签字批准，或者以正式身份参与决策体系。但现在，摆在他面前的都是既成事实的方案。”

The speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards general and the lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, said in a television address on Saturday that the U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal and peace plan and Iran’s response had been shared with Mr. Khamenei and his views taken into account when making decisions.

伊朗议会议长、前革命卫队将军、赴巴基斯坦与美国谈判的首席代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫周六在电视讲话中表示，美国提出的核协议与和平计划以及伊朗的回应，都已通报穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，决策过程中也考虑了他的意见。

2024年，伊朗革命卫队学员在德黑兰参加纪念两伊战争44周年的年度阅兵式。

The Rise of the Guards

 革命卫队的崛起

The Revolutionary Guards, formed as protectors of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, have steadily amassed power through top political roles, stakes in key industries, domination of intelligence operations and cultivation of ties with militant groups in the Middle East that share Iran’s enmity toward Israel and the United States.

伊斯兰革命卫队成立之初旨在保卫1979年伊斯兰革命，它通过担任高层政治职务、控股关键产业、主导情报行动，以及与中东地区同样仇视美以的武装组织建立联系，逐步积累了权力。

But under the elder Mr. Khamenei, they still had to mostly adhere to his will as a singular religious figure who also served as commander in chief of the armed forces. He empowered the Guards, and over time they became the tool and pillar of his rule.

但在老哈梅内伊时期，他们仍需基本服从这位集宗教领袖与武装部队总司令于一身的绝对权威。老哈梅内伊一手扶持了革命卫队，久而久之，卫队成为了他统治的工具和支柱。

Mr. Khamenei’s killing on the first day of the war created a void and an opportunity. The Guards rallied behind Mojtaba in the succession struggle that ensued and played an instrumental role in his selection as Iran’s third supreme leader.

战争首日，老哈梅内伊的身亡制造了权力真空，也带来了机会。在随后的继任斗争中，革命卫队全力支持穆杰塔巴，并在他当选伊朗第三任最高领袖的过程中发挥了决定性作用。

The Guards have multiple levers of power. The commander in chief is Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the newly appointed head of the Supreme National Security Council, is a former hard-line commander of the Guards. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a commander, has served as the top military adviser to both father and son supreme leaders.

革命卫队手握多重权力杠杆：总司令是艾哈迈德·瓦希迪准将；新任最高国家安全委员会主席穆罕默德·巴盖尔·佐勒加德尔曾是革命卫队强硬派的指挥官；指挥官叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维将军则先后担任哈梅内伊父子两代最高领袖的首席军事顾问。“穆杰塔巴不是真正的最高领袖；他或许名义上是领袖，但没有他父亲那样的绝对权威，”在伊朗拥有广泛人脉的国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹说。“穆杰塔巴受制于革命卫队，因为他的地位、乃至整个体系的存续，都要归功于他们。”

“Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the International Crisis Group who has extensive contacts in Iran. “Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them.”

受访官员表示，将军们将美以战争视为对政权生存的威胁，经过五周的激烈战斗，他们自信已经成功遏制了这一威胁。在每个关键节点，都是他们主导决定战略和资源调配。

The officials interviewed say the generals view the war with the United States and Israel as a threat to the regime’s survival, and after five weeks of fierce fighting, the generals are confident that they have contained the threat. At every juncture, they have taken the lead in deciding strategy and the use of resources.

他们关闭霍尔木兹海峡，颠覆了全球经济，并利用战争中的任何战果作为筹码，在国内排挤政治对手。知情官员称，民选总统及其内阁已被边缘化，被告知只需专注于国内事务，比如保障食品和燃料的稳定供应，确保国家正常运转。

They have upended the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz and have used any gains in the war as leverage to outmaneuver political rivals at home. The elected president and his cabinet have been sidelined and told to focus only on domestic affairs, such as providing a steady flow of food and fuel, and to make sure the country is functioning, according to knowledgeable officials.

官员们表示，战前主导对美谈判的外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐，如今已被边缘化，取而代之的是议会议长加利巴夫。

The foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been marginalized in the negotiations that he led with the United States before the war, the officials said. Mr. Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament, has taken the lead instead.

新任最高领袖一直予以配合，极少甚至从未反对过将军们的决定。

The newly minted supreme leader has followed along, rarely if ever objecting to the generals, they said.

正是革命卫队制定了伊朗袭击以色列和波斯湾国家、以及关闭海峡航运的战略；是他们同意与美国临时停火，批准了与美国的秘密外交和直接谈判；也是他们从内部挑选了加利巴夫，由他带队前往伊斯兰堡与美国副总统JD·万斯会谈。

It was the Guards who came up with the strategy for Iran’s attacks on Israel and the Persian Gulf states, along with the closing of the strait to maritime traffic. They were the ones who agreed to a temporary cease-fire with the United States and approved back-channel diplomacy and direct negotiations with the United States. They tapped Mr. Ghalibaf from among their own ranks to lead the talks with Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad.

这是伊朗与美国的谈判代表团中首次出现多名革命卫队的军方将领。

For the first time, several military generals from the Guards were part of the Iranian delegation negotiating with the United States.

伊朗官员和另外三名熟悉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的人士在德黑兰接受采访时表示，他对卫队的顺从部分是因为刚接任领导职务，缺乏父亲那样的政治声望和宗教影响力，部分则源于他与卫队深厚的个人渊源。

革命卫队推选穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫带队前往伊斯兰堡，与美国副总统JD·万斯举行会谈。

Iranian officials and three others individuals who know Mojtaba Khamenei said in interviews from Tehran that his deference to the Guards was partly because he was new to the leadership role. He lacks the political stature and religious clout that made his father such a singular force. And it is partly because of his deep personal ties to the Guards.

哈梅内伊17岁时志愿参加两伊战争，被分配到革命卫队的哈比卜营。这段经历塑造了他，也让他结下了一生的情谊。随着时间推移，该营的许多成员都晋升到了有影响力的军事和情报岗位。

When Mr. Khamenei was 17, he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war. He was deployed to a brigade of the Guards called the Habib Battalion. The experience shaped him, and he made lifelong bonds. As they grew and aged, many members of the battalion rose into influential military and intelligence roles.

哈梅内伊后来在神学院完成学业，获得阿亚图拉头衔，成为一名什叶派学者和法学家。他长期在父亲的官邸工作，为父亲协调军事和情报行动，这一角色进一步巩固了他与将军和情报主管们的联系。

Mr. Khamenei completed his studies at a theological seminary, reaching the rank of ayatollah, considered a scholar and jurist of the Shiite faith. He worked at his father’s compound, coordinating military and intelligence operations for his father, a role that further cemented his ties to the generals and intelligence chiefs.

哈梅内伊在哈比卜营的密友包括：革命卫队前情报主管、神职人员侯赛因·塔埃布；上世纪80年代担任指挥官、现已被召回服役的穆赫辛·雷扎伊将军。加利巴夫也是他的多年老友。

Among Mr. Khamenei’s close friends from the Habib Battalion is the Guards’ former intelligence chief, the cleric Hossein Taeb; and Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, who commanded him in the 1980s and has been called back from retirement. Mr. Ghalibaf is also a longtime friend.

据伊朗官员和三名与哈梅内伊有私交的人士透露，多年来，哈梅内伊、塔埃布和加利巴夫每周都会在阿亚图拉的官邸共进漫长的工作午餐，他们被称为“权力三角”。2009年总统选举中落败的温和派神职人员迈赫迪·卡鲁比曾指控三人干预选举，为时任总统艾哈迈迪内贾德操纵了结果。卡鲁比的失利引发了长达数月的动荡、抗议和暴力冲突。

For years, Mr. Khamenei, Mr. Taeb and Mr. Ghalibaf met once a week for long working lunches at the ayatollah’s compound, according to Iranian officials and the three individuals who know Mr. Khamenei personally. They became known as the “triangle of power.” The trio was accused by a more moderate cleric, Mehdi Karroubi, of intervening in the 2009 presidential election in which he was a candidate and rigging the results in favor of the incumbent president, Mr. Ahmadinejad. Mr. Karroubi lost, and the election upset led to months of upheaval, protests and violence.

达瓦里说，这些私人关系如今深刻影响着哈梅内伊与将军们的互动。他们彼此直呼其名，视对方为同辈，而非上下级。

These personal relationships are now playing heavily into the dynamic between Mr. Khamenei and the generals. They are on a first-name basis and view one another as peers, not superior and subordinate, said Mr. Davari.

 分歧显现

Differences Emerge

将军们并非决策层唯一的声音。伊朗政治从来不是铁板一块，其制度设计本身就包含平行的权力结构。分歧和分裂在伊朗政治人物和军事指挥官中一直很常见，很多时候还会公开化。佩泽什基安总统和阿拉格齐外长也是国家安全委员会的成员。

The generals are not the only voices at the table. Iranian politics have never been monolithic, and the system is designed to have parallel power structures. Disagreements and divisions have always been common and, in many instances, public among Iranian political figures and military commanders. Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Araghchi also have seats on the National Security Council.

但在当前的集体领导下，最终拍板的是将军们，而且目前他们内部没有出现混乱的迹象。

But under the current collective leadership, it is the generals who prevail and currently there are no signs of disarray among them.

周二，就在伊美谈判代表团准备飞往伊斯兰堡举行第二轮会谈之际，将军们叫停了谈判。连日来，围绕如果特朗普继续维持对伊朗的海上封锁，伊朗是否还应与万斯谈判的问题，内部分歧一直在发酵。当时已有约27艘伊朗船只在试图进出伊朗港口时被拦截。

On Tuesday, as the Iranian and American negotiating teams prepared to fly to Islamabad to meet for a second round of talks, the generals pulled the plug. For days differences had simmered over whether Iran should continue talks with Mr. Vance if Mr. Trump maintained a sea blockade on Iran. Already, some 27 Iranian ships had been turned around while trying to enter or exit Iranian ports.

官员们称，特朗普在社交媒体上连发多条帖子，扬言要迫使伊朗屈服于他的所有要求，并再次威胁如果伊朗不达成协议，就轰炸该国的发电厂和桥梁。随后美国扣押了两艘伊朗船只，这进一步激怒了将军们，他们认为此举违反了停火协议。

Mr. Trump had fired off a series of social media posts about forcing Iran to give in to all his demands, and he had renewed threats to bomb the country’s power plants and bridges if Iran did not agree to a deal. The United States then seized two ships belonging to Iran, further infuriating the generals, who thought the move amounted to a violation of the cease-fire, officials said.

据了解会议内容的官员和两名革命卫队成员透露，总司令瓦希迪和其他几位将军认为，谈判毫无意义，因为封锁表明特朗普根本无意谈判，只是想逼迫伊朗投降。

The commander in chief, General Vahidi, and several other generals argued that talks were futile because the blockade showed Mr. Trump was not interested in negotiations and wanted to pressure Iran to surrender, according to officials and two members of the Guards who were briefed on the meeting.

官员们表示，佩泽什基安和阿拉格齐对此表示反对。佩泽什基安警告说，战争已给伊朗造成约3000亿美元的经济损失，迫切需要解除制裁以进行重建。双方在伊朗应将海峡封锁推进到何种程度的问题上也出现了分歧。

The officials said Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Araghchi disagreed. Mr. Pezeshkian warned of the dire economic losses from the war, estimated by the government to be about $300 billion, and the need for sanctions relief for reconstruction. Disagreements also emerged over how far Iran should push with its closure of the strait.

最终将军们获胜，谈判宣告破裂。

The generals won, and the talks fell apart.

特朗普延长了停火，但仍维持封锁，称除非伊朗“分裂的领导层”拿出自己的和平方案，否则封锁不会解除。没人知道接下来会发生什么。也不清楚革命卫队是否会在伊朗核问题上向美国做出足够让步，以促成和平协议——尤其是在冻结铀浓缩活动和交出400公斤高浓缩铀库存这两个争议焦点上。

Mr. Trump extended the cease-fire but is keeping the blockade in place until, he said, Iran’s “fractured leaders” present their own peace proposal. What happens next is not clear. Nor is it clear whether the Guards will allow enough concessions to the United States on Iran’s nuclear program for a peace deal to materialize, including on the two contentious issues: freezing enrichment and giving up the 400-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

伊朗国内一个虽不占主导但立场强硬的边缘派系反对做出任何让步，认为只要继续战斗，伊朗就能击败以色列和美国。强硬派的支持者们每晚都走上街头举行集会，挥舞旗帜，誓言为伊斯兰共和国流血牺牲。阿拉格齐曾在社交媒体上发帖称伊朗将开放海峡，结果遭到强硬派的猛烈抨击，指责谈判团队背叛了支持者。

A hard-line fringe faction in Iran, while not dominant, has opposed making any concessions, believing that if Iran continued fighting it would defeat Israel and the United States. Supporters of the hard-liners have filled the streets with rallies at night, waving flags and pledging their blood for the Islamic republic. When Mr. Araghchi posted on social media at one point that Iran was opening the strait, the hard-liners attacked him, accusing the negotiating team of betraying their supporters.

这些激进分子是极端强硬派总统候选人赛义德·贾利利的支持者。贾利利虽已被排除在决策圈外，但仍有一定影响力，包括掌控着由他弟弟运营的国家电视台。一些人要求哈梅内伊发布视频或音频信息，向公众确认他支持与华盛顿的谈判。在德黑兰的一次集会上，人群向哈梅内伊发出呼声：“领袖，下令吧，我们会追随你。”

The firebrands are supporters of Saeed Jalili, an ultra-hard-line presidential candidate, who has been sidelined from making decisions but still has some influence, including over state television, which his brother runs. Some demanded that Mr. Khamenei make a video or audio message to confirm to the public he was on board with the negotiations with Washington. At a rally in Tehran, crowds addressing Mr. Khamenei chanted, “Commander, give us the order and we will follow.”

加利巴夫于当地时间周六晚在国家电视台向全国发表讲话，向伊朗民众保证哈梅内伊参与了决策。他的语气既强硬又务实，称伊朗取得了击落美国战斗机等军事成就，但现在是时候将这些成果转化为外交谈判的筹码了。

Mr. Ghalibaf addressed the nation on state television on Saturday night local time, assuring Iranians that Mr. Khamenei was involved. He struck a defiant but pragmatic tone, saying that Iran had gained military achievements, including shooting down an American fighter jet, but that now it was time to leverage those gains in diplomatic negotiations.

“有时候，我听到人们说我们彻底打败了他们，”加利巴夫说。“不，我们没有打败他们；你们必须明白这一点。我们的军事成就并不意味着我们比美国更强大。”