It didn’t have to carbo-load, get a good night’s rest or lace up running shoes.

它无需补充碳水、无需保证睡眠，也不用系紧跑鞋鞋带。

Instead, the toughest challenge for the bright-red humanoid robot named Lightning was avoiding a collision with the more than 300 other robots running in a half-marathon race on Sunday in Beijing.

对于这台名为“闪电”的鲜红色人形机器人来说，周日在北京参加半程马拉松比赛时最严峻的挑战是避开一同参赛的300多台机器人。

While the approximately 5-foot-5 Lightning crashed into a barricade and fell during its final stretch, it was able to pick itself back up with help from humans, swing its short forearms to rebalance, and stride across the finish line in 50 minutes, 26 seconds, according to the state-run China Daily.

据官方媒体《中国日报》报道，身高约1.65米的“闪电”在最后冲刺阶段撞上护栏摔倒，但在人类协助下重新站起，摆动短小的前臂恢复平衡，最终以50分26秒的成绩冲过终点线。

Lightning’s time was faster than the human world-record holder, Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda, who finished a half-marathon in 57 minutes, 20 seconds last month in Lisbon.

“闪电”的成绩快于人类半马世界纪录保持者、乌干达选手雅各布·基普利莫，他上月在里斯本以57分20秒完赛。

It was also faster than the 12,000 humans running the race in a separate, parallel lane. The men’s and women’s winners needed more than an hour to complete the outdoor course.

它的速度也超过了在另一条平行赛道参赛的1.2万名人类跑者。本次赛事男女组冠军完成这条户外赛道都耗时超过一小时。

Lightning was designed by the Chinese smartphone brand Honor, and is based on elite human athletes, with legs that are about three feet long.

“闪电”由中国智能手机品牌荣耀研发，设计参照顶尖人类运动员，腿部长度约0.9米。

Lighting’s joints are equipped with a liquid-cooling system adapted from consumer electronics, like smartphones, one of Honor’s engineers told state media.

荣耀一名工程师向官方媒体介绍，“闪电”的关节搭载了源自智能手机等消费电子产品的液冷系统。

In this year’s race, many of the robots, like Lightning, ran autonomously, though slightly more than half were operated by remote control.

在今年的比赛中，包括“闪电”在内的多台机器人均实现了自主奔跑，不过略超半数的机器人仍由遥控操作。

In the inaugural race last year, the top robot took nearly three times as long as Lightning, finishing in 2 hours, 40 minutes and 42 seconds, according to the state-run Global Times.

据官方媒体《环球时报》报道，在去年首届赛事中，成绩最好的机器人耗时2小时40分42秒，几乎是“闪电”用时的三倍。

While the robots were faster and more autonomous this year, Alan Fern, a robotics professor at Oregon State University, said the results said more about the state of robot hardware manufacturing in China than about any major scientific breakthrough.

尽管今年机器人速度更快、自主化程度更高，但俄勒冈州立大学机器人学教授艾伦·费恩表示，这一成果更多体现的是中国机器人硬件制造的水平，而非重大科学突破。

“What appears to have changed this year is that some of China’s many humanoid companies have invested the engineering effort needed to make these systems robust enough for a long-duration race,” he said on Sunday. “That is genuinely impressive.”

“今年明显的变化是，中国众多人形机器人企业中有一部分投入了必要的工程研发，让这些系统具备足够稳定性，能够完成长距离赛事，”他在周日表示。“这确实令人印象深刻。”

While it’s not evidence of a major advancement in artificial intelligence, he said it reflected the robust robotics manufacturing ecosystem in China. The United States has far fewer humanoid companies and very few operating at a large manufacturing scale, he said.

他指出，这虽不能证明人工智能实现重大飞跃，却反映出中国强大的机器人制造生态。他表示，美国的人形机器人企业数量远少于中国，实现大规模量产的更是寥寥无几。

At the same time, China has been pushing to make rapid advancements in robotics, propelled by government directives and significant investments.

而在政策引导与巨额投资推动下，中国正大力推动机器人技术快速发展。

There are already more robots at work in China than the rest of the world combined, according to the International Federation of Robotics, a nonprofit trade group for makers of industrial robots.

据工业机器人制造商的非营利行业组织国际机器人联合会统计，中国在役机器人数量已超过全球其他国家的总和。

Last year, Beijing hosted the world’s first Humanoid Robot Games, which featured running, kickboxing and soccer. The competition showcased many advancements and featured plenty of running, kicking and punching.

去年，北京举办了全球首届人形机器人运动会，设置跑步、跆拳道、足球等项目，集中展示了多项技术进步，机器人奔跑、踢腿、出拳等动作均有亮眼表现。

比赛结束后，媒体记者蜂拥而至，簇拥着这台获胜的机器人及其设计团队，这台机器人由中国智能手机制造商荣耀的团队研发。

But the robots also flailed around, crashed and fell over many times.

但比赛中机器人也频繁出现肢体乱晃、碰撞、摔倒等状况。

The city of Beijing called Sunday’s race “a major step forward for the robotics industry — accelerating the transition of humanoid robots from lab to large-scale, real-world application.”

北京市称，周日的这场比赛“标志着中国人形机器人产业从技术验证迈向高水平应用发展的重要一步”。

But Professor Fern said he was not sure about the practical application of a robot marathoner.

但费恩表示，他对机器人马拉松选手的实际应用价值持保留态度。

“A robot winning a half-marathon may attract attention and impress a few investors, but the harder question is how that capability translates into productivity and, ultimately, profitability,” he said. “That is much less obvious.”

“一台赢得半马比赛的机器人或许能吸引眼球、打动部分投资者，但更关键的问题是，这种能力如何转化为生产力，并最终实现盈利，”他说。“这一点远没有那么清晰。”

The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.

美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争时所持的理由是：如果伊朗有一天拥有核武器，它将获得能吓阻未来攻击的终极威慑力。

It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: its own geography.

结果证明，伊朗早已拥有一种威慑手段：它自身的地理位置。

Iran’s decision to flex its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows, has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizer and other staples. It has upended war planning in the United States and Israel, where officials have had to devise military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.

伊朗决定展现其对霍尔木兹海峡航运的控制权——这个战略咽喉要道承担着全球20%的石油供应，这给全球经济带来了痛苦，汽油、化肥和其他生活必需品的价格随之上涨。这还打乱了美国和以色列的战争计划，两国官员不得不制定军事方案，以夺取对该海峡的控制权。

The U.S.-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval vessels and missile production facilities, but it has done little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait.

美以战争严重破坏了伊朗的领导层结构、大型海军舰艇和导弹生产设施，但几乎没有削弱伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡的能力。

Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a blueprint for its hard-line theocratic government to keep its adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.

因此，伊朗有可能在冲突结束后，带着一份蓝图走出战争：无论其核计划受到何种限制，其强硬的神权政府都能借此让对手不敢轻举妄动。

“Everyone now knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian textbook,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence agency and now a fellow at the Atlantic Council. “You cannot beat geography.”

“现在所有人都知道，如果未来再发生冲突，封锁海峡将是伊朗教科书里的第一条，”以色列军事情报局前伊朗处处长、现大西洋理事会研究员丹尼·西特里诺维奇说，“你无法战胜地理。”

In several social media posts on Friday, President Trump said that the strait, which in one post he called the “Strait of Iran,” was “completely open” to shipping. Iran’s foreign minister made a similar declaration. On Saturday, however, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the waterway remained closed, suggesting a divide among Iranian military and civilians on the issue during negotiations to end the war.

周五，特朗普总统在几条社交媒体帖子中表示，该海峡（他在其中一条里称之为“伊朗海峡”）对航运“完全开放”。伊朗外长也做出了类似声明。然而，周六伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队却表示，该水道仍然处于关闭状态，这暗示在结束战争的谈判期间，伊朗军方和文官之间存在分歧。

Whereas just the prospect of sea mines is enough to scare off commercial shipping, Iran retains far more precise means of control: attack drones and short-range missiles. American military and intelligence officials estimate that, after weeks of war, Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.

仅仅布设水雷的可能性就足以吓退商业航运，而伊朗拥有更为精确的控制手段：攻击无人机和短程导弹。美国军方和情报官员估计，经过数周战争后，伊朗仍保有约40%的攻击无人机库存，以及60%以上的导弹发射装置——这足以在未来继续将霍尔木兹海峡的航运当作人质。

A central goal of the U.S.-led military campaign in Iran is now reopening the strait, which was open when the war began. It is a precarious position for the United States, and its adversaries have taken notice.

目前，美国主导的对伊朗军事行动的中心目标是重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——一条战争开始前原本畅通的水道。这让美国处于一个尴尬的位置，其对手们已经注意到了这一点。

“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out. But one thing is certain — Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It’s called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy chairman of the country’s security council, wrote on social media last week.

“目前尚不清楚华盛顿与德黑兰之间的停战协议将如何发展。但有一点是确定的——伊朗已经测试了它的核武器，它叫霍尔木兹海峡。其潜力无穷无尽，”俄罗斯前总统、俄联邦安全会议副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫上周在社交媒体上写道。

Iran’s control over the strait forced President Trump to announce a naval blockade of his own, and this week the U.S. Navy began forcing cargo ships into Iranian ports after they transited the waterway.

伊朗对海峡的控制迫使特朗普总统宣布实施自己的海军封锁。本周，美国海军开始在货船穿越该水道后，强行将其驱入伊朗港口。

Iran responded with anger, but also taunting. “The Strait of Hormuz isn’t social media. If someone blocks you, you can’t just block them back,” one Iranian diplomatic outpost, which has posted snarky messages throughout the war, wrote on X in response to Mr. Trump’s move. The dispute over the strait has been the focus of numerous A.I.-generated videos depicting American and Israeli officials as Lego characters.

伊朗对此表示愤怒，同时也带有嘲讽。“霍尔木兹海峡不是社交媒体。如果有人拉黑你，你不能只是反过来拉黑他们，”伊朗一个外交账号（该账号在整个战争期间不断发布讽刺信息）在X平台上回应特朗普的举动时写道。围绕海峡的争端已成为众多AI生成视频的焦点，这些视频用乐高角色描绘美国和以色列官员。

Still, the impact of the American blockade has been real. Seaborne trade accounts for roughly 90 percent of Iran’s economic output — approximately $340 million per day — and that flow in recent days has largely ground to a halt.

不过，美国封锁带来的影响是实实在在的。海运贸易约占伊朗经济产出的90%——每天约3.4亿美元——而最近几天，这一流动已基本停滞。

周五，伊朗政府支持者在德黑兰举行集会，人们手持新任最高领袖穆赫塔巴·哈梅内伊的海报。

Iran considers the blockade an act of war and has threatened to attack it. But so far it has not, nor has the United States tried during the current cease-fire to reduce Iran’s grip over the strait when the conflict finally ends.

伊朗认为这一封锁是战争行为，并威胁要对其发动攻击。但到目前为止，伊朗尚未采取行动，美国在当前停火期间也没有试图削弱伊朗对海峡的控制，以便在冲突最终结束时达成目标。

“It may be that both countries see there is a real window to have negotiations” and don’t want to escalate the conflict right now, Adm. Kevin Donegan, who once commanded the U.S. Navy’s fleet with responsibility for the Middle East and is now retired, said during a seminar hosted by the Middle East Institute this week.

“两国可能都看到了进行谈判的真正窗口，”曾在中东负责美国海军舰队指挥、现已退役的凯文·多尼根海军上将本周在中东研究所举办的研讨会上说，“目前都不想让冲突升级。”

Iran tried to block the Strait of Hormuz once before, mining it and the Persian Gulf during the conflict with Iraq during the 1980s. But mine warfare is dangerous, and decades later Iran has effectively harnessed missile and drone technology to threaten both commercial and military maritime traffic.

20世纪80年代两伊冲突期间，伊朗曾尝试过封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当时它在海峡和波斯湾布设了水雷。但水雷战风险很大，数十年后，伊朗已有效掌握了导弹和无人机技术，能够威胁商业和军事海上交通。

While the U.S. and Israeli war significantly damaged Iran’s weapons manufacturing capability, Iran has preserved enough of its missiles, launchers and one-way attack drones to put shipping in the strait at risk.

虽然美以战争严重破坏了伊朗的武器制造能力，但其保有的导弹、发射装置和单程攻击无人机的数量依然能够对海峡航运构成威胁。

U.S. intelligence and military estimates vary, but multiple officials said that Iran has about 40 percent of its prewar arsenal of drones. Those drones have proved to be a powerful deterrent. While they are easily shot down by American warships, commercial tankers have few defenses.

美国情报和军方估计存在差异，但多名官员表示，伊朗仍拥有战前约40%的无人机库存。这些无人机已被证明是一种强大的威慑手段。虽然它们很容易被美国军舰击落，但商业油轮几乎没有防御能力。

Iran also has ample supplies of missiles and missile launchers. At the time of the cease-fire, Iran had access to about half its missile launchers. In the days that immediately followed, it dug out about 100 systems that had been buried inside caves and bunkers, bringing its stockpile of launchers back up to about 60 percent of its prewar level.

伊朗还拥有充足的导弹和导弹发射装置储备。停火时伊朗可动用的导弹发射装置约为战前的一半。随后几天里，它从洞穴和掩体中挖出了约100套系统，使其发射装置库存回升至战前水平的约60%。

Iran is also digging out its supply of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from American attacks on its bunkers and depots. When that work is done, Iran could reclaim as much as 70 percent of its prewar arsenal, according to some American estimates.

伊朗还在挖掘其导弹库存，这些导弹同样被埋在美国袭击掩体和仓库产生的瓦砾之下。根据一些美国估计，挖掘工作完成后，伊朗可能重新掌握多达70%的战前导弹储备。

Officials note that the counts of Iran’s weapon stocks are not precise. Intelligence assessments offer a broad look at how much power Iran retains.

官员们指出，对伊朗武器库存的统计并不精确。情报评估只是对伊朗保留实力的一个大致判断。

But while estimates of Iran’s missile stockpiles differ, there is agreement among officials that Iran has enough weaponry to halt shipping in the future.

尽管对伊朗导弹库存的估计各不相同，但官员们一致认为，伊朗拥有的武器足以在未来阻止航运。

Iran’s government chose not to block the Strait of Hormuz last June, when Israel launched a military campaign that United States eventually joined to hit deeply buried nuclear sites.

去年6月，当以色列发动军事行动（美国后来加入，打击了深藏在地下的伊朗核设施）时，伊朗政府没有选择封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

Mr. Citrinowicz, the former Israeli official, said that decision probably reflected the cautious approach of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who may have been concerned that blocking the strait could have led other countries to join the military campaign against Iran.

前以色列官员西特里诺维奇表示，这一决定可能反映了伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的谨慎态度，他当时可能担心封锁海峡会促使其他国家加入针对伊朗的军事行动。

Ayatollah Khamenei was killed during the first day of the current war, a move that signaled to Iranian officials that American and Israeli goals for this conflict were far more expansive.

哈梅内伊在此次交战的第一天就被击毙，这一行动向伊朗官员表明，在这场冲突中，美国和以色列想达成的目标要比以前宏大得多。

Iran “saw the June war as an Israeli war for their own strategic objectives,” Mr. Citrinowicz said. “This is a regime change war.”

伊朗“认为去年6月的战争是以色列为自身战略目标而发动的战争”，西特里诺维奇说，“而这一次，这是一场政权更迭的战争。”

My mum, a privacy-minded German in her 80s, hates using her credit card. She still carries around wads of cash to pay for everything: a coffee, her weekly supermarket shopping — even a plane ticket to visit me in Wales.

我母亲是一位80多岁、极度注重隐私的德国人。她痛恨使用信用卡，至今出门仍揣着厚厚一沓现金，什么都用现金支付：咖啡、每周的超市采购，就连来威尔士看我的机票也不例外。

She would get along with Satoshi Nakamoto, the legendary inventor of Bitcoin who operates under a pseudonym and created the first cryptocurrency — a form of electronic cash that leaves no digital trace for banks and governments to follow.

她肯定能跟中本聪合得来，这位比特币的传奇发明者一直以化名示人，他创造了世界上第一种加密货币——一种不会留下任何数字痕迹、银行和政府都无法追踪的电子现金。

Nakamoto is a godlike figure in the crypto community. But who is he really? Countless people have tried to unmask him. My colleague John Carreyrou, an investigative reporter who uncovered the Theranos scandal, thinks he figured it out. I spoke to him about his investigation.

中本聪在加密货币圈里是神一般的存在。但他究竟是谁？无数人试图揭开他的面纱。我的同事约翰·卡雷鲁——曾经揭露塞拉诺斯丑闻的调查记者——认为他已经找到了答案。我和他聊了聊他的这次调查。

Unmasking Bitcoin’s creator

揭开比特币创造者的真面目

So John, I want to talk about your fascinating Bitcoin investigation. But before we start, can you just give me the 101 version of the Bitcoin origin story?

约翰，我想和你聊聊你这次引人入胜的比特币调查。不过开始之前，能不能先给我讲讲比特币起源的入门知识？

Bitcoin was a revolution in the world of finance. It was the first cryptocurrency and it has given rise to many others. And it was first laid out in a paper that appeared out of nowhere in an obscure corner of the internet in 2008.

比特币是金融界的一场革命。它是第一种加密货币，也催生了此后无数的加密货币。2008年，一篇论文突然出现在互联网一个不起眼的角落，比特币的构想就此首次公之于众。

The author, who identified himself as Satoshi Nakamoto, described his idea of a decentralized electronic currency that people can use to send one another money from all over the world with no fees, no banks and no government overseeing it.

论文作者自称中本聪，他提出了一种去中心化电子货币的理念，人们可以利用它在全球范围内互相转账，无需手续费，无需经过银行，也不受任何政府监管。

OK, let’s talk about Satoshi Nakamoto. How did people become so obsessed with him?

好的，那我们来说说中本聪。为什么人们会对他这么着迷？

People began suspecting pretty quickly that this was a pseudonym. And as the interest in Bitcoin grew — several hundred million people use it today — so did the interest in solving this mystery of his identity. I’ve personally been captivated by this mystery for a dozen years and I spent a year and a half on my story.

人们很快就怀疑这是个化名。而随着比特币的热度不断攀升——如今已有数亿人在使用它，人们也越来越想揭开他的身份之谜。我个人被这个谜团吸引已经有十几年了，为了写这篇报道，我花了一年半的时间。

Why?

为什么？

I think it’s in the public’s interest to know who created this technology that has upended our financial landscape. It’s being used for good — like giving people in countries with unstable currencies a reliable store of value — but it’s also used for many bad purposes because there is no oversight: Criminals use it for money laundering. Iran is using it to circumvent sanctions.

我认为，了解这项颠覆了我们金融格局的技术由谁创造是符合公众利益的。它有好的一面——比如能让生活在货币不稳定国家的人们拥有一种可靠的价值储存手段。但是由于缺乏监管，它也被用于大量不良目的：犯罪分子用它洗钱，伊朗用它规避制裁。

Is that why he didn’t want his identity known?

这就是他不想暴露身份的原因吗？

Well, there’s something very subversive about crypto. Currencies historically are controlled by governments. Bitcoin is under no one’s control. And so one likely reason Satoshi used a pseudonym was because he feared legal retaliation from the U.S. and other governments.

嗯，加密货币本身就带有极强的颠覆性。历史上，货币一直由政府掌控，而比特币不受任何人控制。因此，中本聪使用化名，一个很可能的原因就是害怕遭到美国及其他政府的法律报复。

I think Satoshi also didn’t want people to treat Bitcoin as just another company with a product and a C.E.O. He wants Bitcoin to feel like a discovery, like digital gold — a digital commodity that was discovered and is mined from the ground of the internet. Not having a named founder with a human face helps with that story.

此外，我觉得中本聪也不希望人们把比特币仅仅当作一家拥有产品和首席执行官的普通公司。他希望比特币被看作一项发现，就像数字黄金——一种从互联网的土壤里开采出来的数字商品。没有一个有血有肉的实名创始人更能支撑这种叙事。

So how did you find him?

那你是怎么找到他的？

There is a British computer scientist called Adam Back who is a pretty influential and prominent person in the Bitcoin community. He’s been on the list of the top suspects for many years, but no one ever got close to proving it — and he’s always denied it.

有一位名叫亚当·巴克的英国计算机科学家，在比特币社区极具影响力，非常有名。多年来他一直是头号嫌疑人，但从来没人能拿出确凿证据，他本人也始终矢口否认。

But when I analyzed his and Nakamoto’s writings side by side, I made a number of discoveries. One of them was that both were pathologically incapable of using hyphens correctly. They use hyphens when they’re not needed and don’t use them when correct grammar calls for them to be used.

但当我把他和中本聪的文章逐字逐句放在一起对比分析时，有了一系列惊人的发现。其中之一是：两人都无法正确使用连字符，简直近乎病态——不该用连字符的时候乱用，在语法要求必须用的时候又偏偏不用。

And I figured this was a writing tic that we could perhaps track by doing a broader analysis with the help of A.I., so that’s what we did.

我意识到这是一种独特的写作习惯，或许可以通过借助人工智能进行更广泛的分析来进行追踪，于是我们就这么做了。

How sure are you that it’s him? In your story, Back insisted he wasn’t Satoshi and chalked up the linguistic similarities to a series of coincidences.

你有多确定就是他？你的报道里提到，巴克坚称自己不是中本聪，还把语言上的相似之处归结为一系列巧合。

He continues to deny it. But I’m between 99.5 percent and 100 percent sure. His denials felt pro forma to me, like he’s denying on the record so as to maintain plausible deniability.

他至今仍在否认。但我有99.5%到100%的把握。在我看来，他的否认只是走个过场，仿佛他的正式否认只是为了保留合理的否认余地。

I should say that the Bitcoin community has cultish undertones, and they have their god, Satoshi Nakamoto, and they don’t want anyone to put a human face and name on their god. They want to continue to think of this as a collective, non-hierarchical project, a decentralized electronic currency where no one is in charge. One of their favorite slogans is “We are all Satoshi.”

我必须说，比特币社区带有一定的邪典色彩。他们有自己的神——中本聪，而且不希望有人给他们的神安上具体的面孔和姓名。他们宁愿继续相信比特币是一个集体的、无等级的项目，一种没有人掌控的去中心化电子货币。他们最喜欢的口号之一就是：“我们都是中本聪。”

So who is Adam Back?

那亚当·巴克又是个什么样的人？

He was a member of this group of privacy-minded anarchists in the ’90s who wanted to escape the control, the surveillance and the censorship of the government. They wanted a currency that was outside of governments’ control because they feared that as modern financial transactions got increasingly digitized there would be a computer record of every transaction you made, and that governments would use that to track you. They wanted to get around that by creating what they called “electronic cash,” a digital version of physical cash that you can’t trace.

上世纪90年代，他就是注重隐私的无政府主义群体中的一员。这群人想要摆脱政府的控制、监视和审查。他们渴望一种不受政府掌控的货币，因为他们担心，随着现代金融交易日益数字化，你的每一笔消费都会留下电脑记录，而政府会利用这些记录追踪用户。他们想要创造所谓的“电子现金”——实体现金的数字版本，无法被追踪——来规避这一切。

Apropos cash, how much is he worth by now?

说到现金，他现在身价多少了？

We know that Satoshi mined 1.1 million bitcoins in the first 16 months of the project. At current prices, that means he’s sitting on a fortune of about $82 billion, which would make him one of the richest people in the world.

我们知道，中本聪在比特币项目启动后的前16个月里一共挖出了110万枚比特币。按当前价格计算，他坐拥约820亿美元的财富，足以跻身全球最富有的人之列。

You’ve met Back several times. What’s he like?

你见过巴克好几次，他本人是什么样的？

He’s the opposite of your typical crypto bro. He’s this mild-mannered, nerdy guy. He’s got slightly disheveled, thinning gray hair, a goatee and wire-rimmed glasses. He basically looks like a middle-aged computer scientist. He’s very pleasant to talk to.

他和那些典型的加密圈兄弟们完全相反。他是个温文尔雅、带点书呆子气的人，头发有点乱，灰白稀疏，留着山羊胡，戴着细框眼镜，看起来基本上就是个中年计算机科学家。和他聊天非常愉快。

Back in the ’90s, he would often write posts about the need to operate under an alter ego so as not to raise the suspicion of the government. This is someone who has been plotting this for a very long time.

早在上世纪90年代，他就经常在网上发帖，说需要用化名行事，以免引起政府的怀疑。他已经为这件事谋划了非常非常久。

Hearty, basic and cheap, oats have been eaten for centuries. And now, they’re a staple of wellness culture — for good reason.

几个世纪以来，燕麦一直被作为一种营养丰富、基础且廉价的食物。而现在，它已经成为健康文化的一大支柱——这不无道理。

Oats are a “balanced food” with a good amount of protein, relatively little fat and a variety of vitamins and minerals, said Elizabeth Hyde-Daddio, a dietitian and certified diabetes educator at Northwell Health in Long Island. What really sets them apart, however, is that they’re one of the best sources of a powerful type of fiber.

长岛诺斯韦尔健康中心的营养师兼认证糖尿病教育工作者伊丽莎白·海德-达迪奥说，燕麦是一种“均衡食品”，含有大量的蛋白质、相对较少的脂肪以及各种维生素和矿物质。而真正让它们与众不同的是，它们是一种强大的纤维的最佳来源之一。

Here’s a closer look, along with recipes from New York Times Cooking.

以下是进一步的详细介绍，以及来自《纽约时报》烹饪版(New York Times Cooking)的食谱。

They’re great for your heart.

它们对你的心脏大有裨益。

Many studies have found that oats lower LDL cholesterol, or the “bad” cholesterol that increases your risk of heart attack and stroke.

许多研究发现，燕麦可以降低低密度脂蛋白(LDL)胆固醇，即会增加心脏病发作和中风风险的“坏”胆固醇。

Much of this effect comes from beta-glucan, a type of fiber that thickens the contents inside the gut, trapping cholesterol-rich bile acids and carrying them out of the body.

这种效果在很大程度上来自于β-葡聚糖，这是一种纤维，能够增加肠道内容物的黏稠度，捕获富含胆固醇的胆汁酸，并将其排出体外。

The evidence is strong enough that, since the 1990s, the Food and Drug Administration has linked the beta-glucan in whole oats — at least three grams per day, or what you’d get in a half-cup of rolled oats — to a lower risk of coronary heart disease. In one small trial, consuming this much beta-glucan daily reduced LDL cholesterol by 12 percent after four weeks.

证据非常充分，以至于美国食品和药物管理局自20世纪90年代起就已经将全燕麦中的β-葡聚糖——每天至少三克，或者相当于半杯燕麦片的含量——与降低冠心病风险联系在一起。在一项小型试验中，每天摄入这么多的β-葡聚糖，四周后LDL胆固醇降低了12%。

People who have high cholesterol levels, in particular, can “see immediate, significant benefits,” said Padmanaban Krishnan, an emeritus professor of dairy and food science at South Dakota State University.

南达科他州立大学乳制品与食品科学荣休教授帕德马纳班·克里希南表示，尤其是对于那些胆固醇水平高的人来说，可以“看到立竿见影的显著益处”。

There is also emerging evidence that other compounds in oats, including antioxidants like avenanthramides, may help reduce blood pressure, said Candida Rebello, the director of the nutrition and chronic disease program laboratory at Louisiana State University.

路易斯安那州立大学营养与慢性病项目实验室主任坎迪达·雷贝洛说，还有新的证据表明，燕麦中的其他化合物——包括燕麦蒽酰胺等抗氧化剂——可能有助于降低血压。

They support healthy blood sugar.

它们支持健康的血糖水平。

After carbohydrate-rich meals, blood sugar tends to spike, but studies suggest that oats can blunt the rise, Dr. Rebello said.

雷贝洛说，摄入富含碳水化合物的餐食后血糖往往会飙升，但研究表明燕麦可以减缓这种上升。

High-fiber foods slow digestion and keep glucose from entering the bloodstream too quickly, Dr. Krishnan said, and beta-glucan is especially helpful for this.

克里希南表示，高纤维食物会减缓消化速度，防止葡萄糖过快进入血液，而β-葡聚糖在这一点上特别有帮助。

Eating oats can be particularly beneficial for people with Type 2 diabetes, he added. Some data also suggests oats could help with prevention: In a 2020 study, higher oatmeal consumption (at least two servings per week) was tied to a 21 percent lower risk of developing Type 2 diabetes than lower consumption (less than a serving per month).

他补充说，食用燕麦对2型糖尿病患者尤其有益。一些数据还表明，燕麦可能有助于预防糖尿病：2020年的研究显示，较高的燕麦摄入量（每周至少两份）与较低的2型糖尿病患病风险相关，其风险水平比摄入量低者（每月不足一份）要低21%。

They nourish your gut.

它们滋养你的肠道。

Most Americans don’t get enough fiber, and oats can help fill the gap. There are over four grams (including beta-glucan) in a half-cup of rolled oats; adults should consume 21 to 38 grams of fiber daily, depending on their age and sex.

大多数美国人摄入的纤维不足，而燕麦可以帮助填补这一缺口。半杯燕麦片含有超过四克的纤维（包括β-葡聚糖）；成年人每天应摄入 21至38克纤维，具体取决于他们的年龄和性别。

Oats are also good for your gut. Because beta-glucan isn’t digested well in the small intestine, it makes its way to the colon, where it can feed beneficial gut bacteria and act as a prebiotic, said Barbara Olendzki, the director of the Center for Applied Nutrition at UMass Chan Medical School. Researchers believe this could help support the gut lining and reduce inflammation, especially in people with high cholesterol, obesity and other metabolic diseases.

燕麦也对你的肠道有益。马萨诸塞大学陈氏医学院应用营养中心主任芭芭拉·奥伦茨基表示，由于在小肠中不易被消化，β-葡聚糖会进入结肠，在那里可以滋养有益的肠道细菌并充当益生元。研究人员认为，这可能有助于支持肠道黏膜并减轻炎症，尤其是对高胆固醇、肥胖和其他代谢疾病患者而言。

The fiber in oats can also add bulk to stool and help keep you regular, provided you’re also drinking enough fluids and staying active, Ms. Hyde-Daddio said.

海德-达迪奥说，燕麦中的纤维还可以增加粪便的体积，帮助你保持排便规律，前提是你也摄入了足够的水分并保持活动。

What’s the healthiest way to eat them?

最健康的吃法是什么？

Oat groats are the least processed form of oats, with only the inedible hull removed, while instant oats are the most processed. In between are steel-cut oats (groats chopped into smaller pieces) and rolled oats (steamed and flattened groats).

燕麦仁是加工最少的燕麦形式，只去除了不可食用的外壳，速溶燕麦则是加工最多的。介于两者之间的是钢切燕麦（被切成小块的燕麦仁）和传统压扁燕麦片（经过蒸汽处理并压扁的燕麦仁）。

All of these can be healthy choices, but less-processed versions are generally the best because their beta-glucan is more intact. These types of oats take longer to cook, so Ms. Olendzki recommended prepping ahead of time and microwaving them in the morning.

所有这些都可以是健康的选择，但加工程度较低的版本通常是最好的，因为它们的β-葡聚糖更完整。这些类型的燕麦需要更长的时间来烹饪，因此奥伦茨基建议提前准备好，早上用微波炉加热。

Added sugars in flavored instant oats, or from toppings like maple syrup, can offset some of the health benefits, Ms. Hyde-Daddio said, so try mixing in fruits, nuts or cinnamon instead.

海德-达迪奥说，调味速溶燕麦中的添加糖，或来自枫糖浆等配料的糖可能会抵消一些健康益处，所以尝试加入水果、坚果或肉桂。

And don’t just relegate them to a daily bowl of oatmeal. “You can add oats to pretty much anything,” she said.

不要仅仅把它们局限于每天一碗燕麦粥。“你可以把燕麦加到几乎任何东西里，”她说。

Ready to eat more oats? Here are some recipes from NYT Cooking.

准备好吃更多燕麦了吗？这里有一些来自NYT Cooking的食谱。

Slow-Cooker Steel-Cut Oats

慢炖锅钢切燕麦粥

Julia Gartland for The New York Times (Photography and Styling)

With help from a slow cooker, you can wake up to a hot, zero-effort breakfast. Cooked with only water and salt, the creamy oats can take both savory and sweet toppings.

食谱：慢炖锅钢切燕麦粥This savory breakfast or dinner starts with a versatile hands-off technique for making steel-cut oats.

这份美味的早餐或晚餐源于一种多用途而简便的钢切燕麦粥烹制技巧。

Recipe: Savory Steel-Cut Oats With Fried Egg and Za’atar

食谱：煎蛋加扎塔尔香料咸味钢切燕麦粥

Overnight Oats

隔夜燕麦片

David Malosh for The New York Times

Simply soaked in milk and left uncooked, these oats retain an earthy freshness. Bits of dried fruit complement their natural sweetness.

食谱：隔夜燕麦片With mashed banana and almond butter in the gluten-free batter, these portable treats are wholesome and filling.

在无麸质面糊中加入香蕉泥和杏仁脂，这些便携式小点心既健康又饱腹。

Recipe: Baked Oatmeal Cups

食谱：烤燕麦杯

Lemony Chicken-Feta Meatball Soup With Spinach

柠檬鸡肉羊乳酪肉丸菠菜汤

Oats take the place of bread crumbs in these meatballs, binding the ingredients and keeping everything juicy and tender after cooking.

这些肉丸用燕麦代替了面包屑，将各种配料粘合在一起，并在烹饪后保持多汁鲜嫩。

Recipe: Lemony Chicken-Feta Meatball Soup With Spinach

食谱：柠檬鸡肉羊乳酪肉丸菠菜汤

Five days after 4-year-old Kim Dong Hee had his tonsils removed, he started vomiting blood. He passed out before an ambulance arrived.

四岁的金东希（音）在接受扁桃体切除手术五天后开始吐血。在救护车赶到之前，他就已经失去了意识。

As he was being raced to the hospital where he had his tonsillectomy, near Busan, South Korea’s second largest city, doctors told the paramedics that the emergency room was full. The nearest available E.R. was more than 10 miles away. The trip felt like an eternity to his mother, Kim So Hee. “My vision went white and my head went blank,” she said.

当他被紧急送往位于韩国第二大城市釜山附近、为他实施手术的医院时，医生却告知急救人员，急诊室已满。最近的可接收患者的急诊室在十几二十公里外。对他的母亲金素熙（音）来说，这段路仿佛无比漫长。“我眼前一片空白，脑子里一片茫然，”她说。

By the time a doctor saw Dong Hee, about 30 minutes after the initial call, his airways had been blocked by blood and he had suffered severe brain damage from a lack of oxygen. He remained in a vegetative state and died five months later.

从最初拨打急救电话到医生见到金东希，时间已经过了大约30分钟，此时他的气道已被血液堵塞，因为缺氧而出现了严重的脑损伤。此后，他一直处于植物人状态，五个月后去世。

Despite being one of the wealthiest countries in Asia, South Korea has a buckling emergency-care system. A chronic shortage of E.R. doctors, fewer legal protections for physicians than in other rich nations and a quirk in the emergency response system — paramedics must wait for hospital permission before transporting a patient to an E.R. — have led to delays that can be fatal.

尽管韩国是亚洲最富裕的国家之一，它的急救体系却不堪重负。急诊室医生长期短缺、法律对医生的保护不如其他富裕国家，以及急救响应系统的一个特殊规定——急救人员必须获得医院许可才能将病人送往急诊室——都导致了可能致命的延误。

These hospital rejections — called “E.R. runaround,” “ambulance pingpong” or E.R. “merry-go-round” by the local news media — have become more acute in recent years, government data shows. President Lee Jae Myung has described the failures as systemic.

政府数据显示，这种被韩国新闻媒体称为“急诊室推诿”、“救护车乒乓球”或急诊室“旋转木马”的医院拒收现象近年来愈发严重。韩国总统李在明将这些问题称为系统性失败。

“Patients are dying on the streets, unable to find an E.R. for hours on end,” he said at a cabinet meeting in December and ordered his Health Ministry to fix the system.

他在去年12月的一次内阁会议上说：“患者连续几个小时却不到可以接收的急诊室，甚至因此命丧街头。”他要求卫生部门解决这一问题。

It will not be easy.

但这绝非易事。

金素熙（音）永远失去了儿子东希（音），此前急救人员被告知他们试图前往的第一家急诊室已满。金东希出现了严重的脑损伤，随后一直处于植物人状态，并在五个月后去世。

The average time it takes for major trauma patients to be accepted by an E.R. has doubled since 2019 — the year Dong Hee had his tonsils removed — to 16 minutes and 30 seconds, according to data released by Representative Yang Bu-nam, who is part of a committee that oversees the National Fire Agency.

根据国会议员杨富男公布的数据（他是负责监管消防厅的委员会成员），2019年以来，也就是金东希做扁桃体切除手术的那年，重伤患者被急诊室接收所需的平均时间已翻倍，达到16分30秒。

Last year, the data show, there were more than 1,000 instances when ambulances had to call over 20 hospitals before finding beds for their patients.

数据显示，去年发生了超过1000次救护车在为患者寻找床位时不得不拨打20家以上医院电话的情况。

In October, a woman in her 60s was hit on a crosswalk by a cargo truck in the city of Changwon. An ambulance arrived on the scene quickly but the medics — who called 30 hospitals — could not find an E.R. willing to accept her and she died a couple of hours after the accident, according Representative Yang.

去年10月，昌原市一名60多岁的女子在人行横道上被一辆货车撞倒。救护车迅速赶到现场，但急救人员联系了30家医院，都找不到愿意接收她的急诊室。据杨富男说，她在事故发生数小时后去世。

South Korea has universal health care and its medical system is considered above average among wealthy nations. But it has fewer doctors per capita than most developed nations and many doctors prefer to specialize in fields that pay more than emergency care, such as dermatology and plastic surgery.

韩国拥有全民医保，其医疗体系在富裕国家中也被认为处于中上水平。但韩国的人均医生数量低于大多数发达国家，而且许多医生更倾向于选择收入更高的专科领域，如皮肤科和整形外科，而不是急诊医学。

On top of this, patients seeking care at hospital emergency rooms for “low acuity” conditions can lead to overcrowding, “causing delays in treating high-risk patients,” according to Chris James, a senior health economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

此外，经合组织高级卫生经济学家克里斯·詹姆斯指出，因“轻症”前往医院急诊室就诊的患者也会占用资源，“从而延误对高风险患者的治疗”。

The country’s 119 dispatch system mirrors the U.S. fast response system, where paramedics typically have the authority to determine the best hospital for a patient’s needs. But in South Korea, they must first get permission to arrive from hospitals, which can refuse patients for reasons including staff shortages and an excess of patients.

韩国的119调度系统类似于美国的快速响应体系，在美国，急救人员通常有权根据患者情况决定送往哪家医院。但在韩国，急救人员必须先获得医院的接收许可，而医院可以以人手不足、患者过多等理由拒绝接收。

This, paramedics say, leaves them scrambling to secure a patient’s admission in the race against the “golden time,” or the period in which a critical patient must receive care before suffering permanent damage or even death.

急救人员表示，这使得他们必须在与“黄金时间”——即重症患者在遭受永久性损伤甚至死亡之前必须得到救治的窗口期——赛跑的过程中，手忙脚乱地为患者争取入院机会。

When this happens, “you feel yourself starting to shrink as the stress builds,” said Kim Sung-hyun, who has been a paramedic for over a decade.

在发生这种情况的时候，“随着压力越来越大，你会有一种无力感，”从事急救工作十多年的急救人员金成贤（音）说。

急救人员金成贤（音）在首尔一处应急安全中心。急救人员必须先致电医院并获得接收许可后才能前往。他们可能会被多家急诊室拒绝。

“If we leave this situation as it is, patients will continue to die,” Representative Yang said at an interview at his office in Seoul.

“如果这种状况继续下去，患者还会不断死亡，”杨富男议员在首尔的办公室接受采访时说。

He is pushing for a legal amendment that would grant paramedics the authority to designate hospitals for emergency patients. Separately, the Health Ministry launched a pilot program last month in two provinces and one city that designates specific hospitals as priority destinations for emergency patients.

他正在推动一项法律修正案，赋予急救人员为急诊患者指定接收医院的权力。与此同时，韩国保健福祉部上个月在两个道和一个市启动了试点项目，将特定的医院指定为急诊患者的优先接收单位。

Some E.R. doctors have opposed these plans. “Forcing us to take in patients might reduce the number of rejections on paper, but does little to ensure they receive the care they actually need,” said Kim Changyu, a resident at a hospital E.R. in Seoul.

一些急诊科医生反对这些计划。“强制我们接收患者或许能在纸面上减少拒收数量，但对确保他们真正获得所需治疗帮助不大，”首尔一家医院急诊科的住院医师金昌裕（音）说。

E.R. doctors also worry about legal liability. Physicians in South Korea face criminal charges for medical negligence at rates that are significantly higher than in other wealthy nations, according to studies.

急诊医生还担心法律责任。研究显示，韩国医生因医疗过失面临刑事指控的比例明显高于其他富裕国家。

“The fear of litigation or losing our licenses is what forces us to turn patients away,” Dr. Kim said. “We are human, too.”

金昌裕医生说：“对打官司或吊销执照的恐惧正是迫使我们拒收患者的原因。我们也是人。”

Other doctors, like Changwoo Han, a professor of preventive medicine at Chungnam National University, are in favor of the pilot program because it would expedite the transfer of urgent patients, and put paramedics and hospitals on the same page.

其他一些医生支持这个试点项目，比如忠南大学预防医学教授韩昌宇（音），因为这样可以加快急重症患者的转运，让急救人员和医院实现步调一致。

Many of the doctors’ concerns surfaced during an 18-month junior doctors’ strike that ended in September 2025.

医生们的诸多担忧在2025年9月结束的一场持续18个月的实习医生和住院医生的罢工中浮出水面。

While the core of that dispute was centered around a government proposal to increase the number of medical school students, doctors’ grievances included tough working environments, low wages in departments like emergency care and a lack of legal protection for physicians working with critical patients.

虽然这场争议的核心是政府提出增加医学院招生人数的计划，但医生的不满还包括恶劣的工作环境、急诊等科室较低的薪资，以及在救治危重患者时缺乏法律保障。

Mr. Lee’s government has taken a more conciliatory tone with the medical community and agreed to scale back plans for medical school admissions.

李在明政府对医学界采取了更为安抚的态度，并同意缩减医学院扩招计划。

The majority of E.R. patients in South Korea do not call for an ambulance but are walk-ins, according to government figures. That is a testament to the quality of care people get, but even walk-in patients are often turned away.

根据政府数据，韩国大多数急诊患者并非通过救护车送医，而是自行前往。这在一定程度上体现了医疗服务的可及性，但即使是自行前来的患者也常常被拒之门外。

国会议员杨富男正在推动修改法律，赋予急救人员为急诊患者指定接收医院的权力。根据政府数据，韩国大多数急诊患者并非乘坐救护车到达，而是自行前往。

In the summer of 2024, Andrea Kwon, who works in marketing in Seoul, developed a fever and sore throat that lingered for weeks. Then, her skin turned yellowed, her stomach began to bloat and the mere smell of food triggered nausea. After visiting several neighborhood clinics, she was diagnosed with liver stones and was advised to go to an E.R.

2024年夏天，在首尔从事市场营销工作的安德里亚·权出现了持续数周的发烧和喉痛。随后，她的皮肤开始发黄，腹部胀大，光是闻到食物味道就感到恶心。在看了几家社区诊所后，她被诊断出肝结石，并被建议去看急诊。

Ms. Kwon, who said she is in her 20s, went to one only to be told to go home as no liver specialists were available. A referral to another hospital brought similar news.

自称20多岁的权女士去看急诊，却被告知没有肝病专科医生，让她回家。转到另一家医院，得到的答复也差不多。

By that point, she was feeling so ill she could not walk properly. “I was terrified. I felt completely helpless,” she said. Eventually, Ms. Kwon was able to get an appointment with a specialist at a hospital who diagnosed her with the Epstein-Barr virus, an infection that can sometimes attack the liver.

到那时，她已经病得连路都走不稳了。“我非常害怕，感到完全无助，”她说。最终，权女士在一家医院预约到了专科医生，被诊断出感染了EB病毒——这种感染有时会攻击肝脏。

While the government and doctors quibble over policy, patients and their families say lives are being put at risk. Some have turned to the courts in hopes of seeking justice for loved ones who they believe died because of rejections at E.R.’s.

在政府和医生为政策争论不休的同时，患者及其家属表示，生命正被置于危险之中。一些人已经诉诸法庭，希望能为他们认为因急诊室拒收而去世的亲人讨回公道。

In December 2019, Ms. Kim, Dong Hee’s mother, filed a criminal complaint against the doctors and hospital that refused to accept her son.

2019年12月，金东希的母亲金女士对拒绝收诊的医生和医院提起了刑事控告。

Last year, a court ruled that the doctors were not guilty of professional negligence. But it said some were guilty of violating medical law and that one had falsely claimed that the emergency room was busy with another patient.

去年，法院裁定医生们不构成职业过失罪。但裁定其中一些人违反了医疗法，并指出有一名医生谎称急诊室正忙于救治另一名患者。

“The verdict is truly disastrous. Medical professionals know better than anyone that the result of refusing a patient could be death,” said Ms. Kim, who plans on appealing the verdict. “Everything is backward.”

“这个判决简直太糟糕了。医护人员比谁都清楚，拒收患者的后果可能是死亡，”计划上诉的金女士说道。“一切都颠倒了。”

Ms. Kim now lives with her parents and younger son in Busan. Her husband, Dong Hee’s father, died after a yearslong battle with leukemia in 2022. “Dong Hee was a bright, brave and precious child,” she said. “He was the hope that kept his father fighting for his life.”

目前，金女士与父母及小儿子住在釜山。2022年，她的丈夫、金东希的父亲在与白血病抗争多年后去世。“东希是个聪明、勇敢而珍贵的孩子，”她说，“他是支撑他父亲与病魔抗争的希望。”

金素熙与她的小儿子在釜山步行回家。

A 10-day cease-fire went into effect at midnight on Friday morning in Lebanon. The truce pauses fighting between Israeli forces and the militant group Hezbollah, removing a major obstacle to peace talks between the United States and Iran.

黎巴嫩为期10天的停火协议于周五凌晨零时正式生效。这份停火协议暂停了以色列军队与武装组织真主党之间的战事，为美国与伊朗的和平谈判扫清了一大障碍。

Israeli and Lebanese officials had confirmed they would implement the truce, which was first announced by President Trump after a diplomatic push by the U.S. government earlier in the day. Hezbollah acknowledged the cease-fire in a pair of statements on Thursday, but did not directly address whether it would accept the truce, saying its actions would be “based on how developments unfold.”

以色列和黎巴嫩官员已确认将执行该停火协议。这份协议是特朗普总统在美国政府当日早些时候展开外交斡旋后首次宣布的。真主党周四在两份声明中承认了停火协议的存在，但未直接表明是否接受，称其行动将“视事态发展而定”。

Israel and Hezbollah had continued to trade strikes in the hours before the cease-fire was set to take effect, according to statements from each military.

双方军方发布的声明显示，在停火协议生效前的数小时内，以色列与真主党仍在相互发动袭击。

The U.S. State Department, outlining the truce in a memo on Thursday, said that Israel would retain its right “to take all necessary measures in self-defense,” but would not carry out “offensive operations” against Lebanese targets by land, air or sea. The Lebanese government, with international support, is expected to take “meaningful steps” to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against Israeli targets.

美国国务院周四在一份备忘录中阐明了停火协议的核心内容：以色列将保留“采取一切必要自卫措施”的权利，但不会从陆、海、空三方面对黎巴嫩目标发动“进攻性行动”；黎巴嫩政府则需在国际社会支持下，采取“切实措施”防止真主党袭击以色列目标。

The Lebanese government does not have direct control over Hezbollah, an armed group considered more powerful than the state’s military. Still, Hezbollah has abided by some previous deals negotiated by the Lebanese government.

黎巴嫩政府无法直接控制真主党——这支武装组织的实力被认为比国家军队更强大。不过，真主党此前曾遵守过由黎巴嫩政府谈判达成的部分协议。

The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has threatened to upend the two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran, which is set to expire next week. Iran has insisted the cease-fire must cover attacks on its ally Hezbollah, too.

以色列与伊朗最强大的代理人真主党之间的战事曾一度威胁到美伊两国为期两周的停火协议，该协议将于下周到期。伊朗此前一直坚称，停火协议必须同时覆盖对其盟友真主党的袭击。

Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House that the next in-person negotiations with Iran might occur this weekend. Mr. Trump said he would consider extending the pause in fighting if the United States is close to a deal with Iran. He has repeatedly suggested a deal is near.

特朗普在白宫对记者表示，与伊朗的下一轮面对面谈判可能于本周末举行。他称，如果美国与伊朗的谈判接近达成协议，会考虑延长停火期限。特朗普已多次暗示协议已经近在咫尺。

It was not clear whether Lebanese displaced from the country’s south would be able to return home; Israel has signaled recently that it was planning to occupy large parts of the area even after the current conflict.

目前尚不清楚从黎巴嫩南部撤离的流离失所者能否返回家园；以色列近期已放出信号，即便当前冲突结束，也计划占领该地区的大片土地。

More than 2,100 people have been killed in Lebanon during the current round of fighting, Lebanese authorities say, and over one million residents displaced. At least 13 Israeli soldiers have also been killed, along with two civilians, according to the Israeli authorities.

黎巴嫩当局称，本轮冲突已造成黎巴嫩境内超过2100人死亡，逾100万居民流离失所。以色列当局表示，至少有13名以色列士兵和2名平民在冲突中丧生。

Here’s what else we are covering:

以下是我们正在报道的其他内容：

• U.S. threats: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday renewed U.S. threats to attack Iran’s power plants and other energy sites if its leaders did not agree to a peace deal.

· 美国的威胁：美国国防部长海格塞思周四重申，若伊朗领导人不同意达成和平协议，美国将袭击伊朗的发电厂及其他能源设施。

• Help from automakers: The Pentagon has met with executives of Ford Motor and General Motors to gauge whether the auto industry could help the military replenish some supplies. Read more ›

· 汽车制造商的援助：五角大楼已与福特汽车公司和通用汽车公司的高管会面，评估汽车行业能否协助军方补充部分物资。阅读更多 ›

• Iran talks: On Thursday, Pakistan said that it expected to host a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran but declined to give a date, as senior Pakistani mediators visited Tehran in an effort to shore up the U.S.-Iran cease-fire.

· 伊朗谈判进展：周四，巴基斯坦表示预计将主持美伊第二轮谈判，但拒绝透露具体日期。巴基斯坦高级调解人当日访问德黑兰，旨在巩固美伊停火协议。

• Timeline: Here’s a brief history of Israel-Lebanon relations.

·时间线：以色列与黎巴嫩关系简史。

In a 12-hour span this week, President Trump promised that the war with Iran was ending soon. He picked a fight with the pope on social media. He threatened to fire the chair of the Federal Reserve. He posted an illustration of himself receiving an encouraging hug from Jesus Christ.

本周，在短短12小时内，特朗普总统承诺与伊朗的战争即将结束。他在社交媒体上对教宗发起挑衅。他威胁要解雇美联储主席。他还发布了一张画，展示耶稣基督正拥抱他以示鼓励。

This is what it looks like when Mr. Trump is under pressure and burrowing his way into a more flattering news cycle. And anyone who has been paying even a little bit of attention over the past decade can pinpoint where we are in a well-established routine, when, intentionally or not, the president tosses out little rhetorical grenades meant to shift attention elsewhere. (It often works: Remember last week, when he threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization?)

这就是特朗普在承受压力时，试图钻进一个更讨喜的新闻周期时的样子。过去十年，只要稍加留意的人都能准确指出，存在这样一个熟练的套路：总统有意或无意地抛出一个个言辞的手雷，目的是把注意力转移到别处。（这一招经常奏效：还记得上周他威胁要消灭伊朗文明吗？）

Now, Mr. Trump is showering Truth Social with Jesus memes and threats and endorsements.

现在，特朗普正在Truth Social上用耶稣表情包、威胁和各种表态支持刷屏。

“The Radical Left Lunatics might not like this, but I think it is quite nice!!!” he posted alongside an illustration of Jesus with his arm around the president’s shoulder and an American flag in the background.

“激进左派疯子们可能不喜欢这个，但我认为这相当不错！！！”他在一张图画旁配文道。图中耶稣用手臂搂着总统的肩膀，背景是一面美国国旗。

What makes this different from all the other times is that he cannot post his way out of a war he started without congressional permission or without the support of voters.

与以往不同的是，这一次他无法仅仅通过发帖就从一场未经国会授权、也缺乏选民支持的战争中脱身。

A fan of quick, in-and-out military operations that showcase the power of the U.S. military, Mr. Trump has grown frustrated that the war in Iran has taken longer than he had originally thought it would. His latest decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route, has required more than 10,000 soldiers, as well as dozens of planes and warships. All the while, he has continued his usual practice of lashing out at critics. This time, he has damaged relationships with key allies, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, and made it harder for Republicans to keep the focus on economic issues in a midterm election year.

特朗普一向喜欢快速进出、能展示美国军事实力的军事行动，但他对伊朗战争持续时间超出自己最初预期的现状越来越感到沮丧。他最近决定封锁霍尔木兹海峡这一关键石油通道的决定已经动用了超过1万名士兵，数十架飞机和军舰。与此同时，他继续一如既往地猛烈抨击批评者。这一次，他损害了与关键盟友的关系，包括意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼，并让共和党人更难在中期选举年将注意力集中在经济议题上。

“President Trump has taken courageous action to address a threat that past presidents have talked about for 47 years, but only he had the courage to address,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “The United States military quickly achieved all of the goals enumerated at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury,” she added, referring to the name of the campaign in Iran.

“特朗普总统采取了勇敢的行动，来应对过去47年来历届总统只是嘴上说说，却只有他有勇气真正去解决的威胁，”白宫发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中说。“美国军队迅速实现了‘史诗愤怒行动’一开始列出的所有目标，”她补充道，“史诗愤怒”是对这场伊朗战争的称呼。

Ms. Kelly said that the blockade was “increasing leverage as U.S. negotiators work to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat for good.”

凯利表示，此次封锁行动“让美国谈判代表能有更多的筹码，以求彻底消除伊朗的核威胁”。

Inside the White House, some of Mr. Trump’s advisers have privately acknowledged that his attack on the pope was not productive. They believe a slate of events later this week will help shift attention toward some of the administration’s economic initiatives, and a tax season that has some Americans celebrating larger-than-average returns.

在白宫内部，特朗普的一些顾问私下承认，他对教宗的攻击并不明智。他们认为，本周晚些时候的一系列活动将有助于将注意力转移到政府的一些经济举措上，另外在这个报税季，一些美国人将欣喜地看到高于平均水平的退税。

周一，在麦当劳送餐到白宫后，特朗普走回椭圆形办公室。

“President Trump has always been able to enact America First foreign policy while enhancing the livelihoods of Americans at home, including by cutting taxes, re-shoring manufacturing, eliminating burdensome regulations, and more,” Ms. Kelly said.

“特朗普总统始终能够在推行‘美国优先’外交政策的同时，提升美国人在国内的生活水平，包括减税、制造业回流、取消繁琐监管等等，”凯利说。

Investors seem impatient for the war in Iran to end, too. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, reflecting optimism that a peace deal would be reached before the war inflicts significant damage on corporate America.

投资者似乎也焦急地盼望着伊朗战争尽快结束。标普500指数周三创下新高，反映出市场乐观认为，在战争对美国企业造成重大损害之前，和平协议就能达成。

Earlier in the day, Mr. Trump sat for an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business, who wanted to know whether his decision to blockade the strait had positively affected negotiations with Tehran.

当天早些时候，特朗普接受了福克斯商业频道玛丽亚·巴蒂罗莫的采访，后者想知道他封锁海峡的决定是否对与德黑兰的谈判产生了积极影响。

“The leaders they have now — it’s a new regime, OK?” Mr. Trump said, adding: “And I think we’re doing very well, but it only matters what the end result is, and maybe it’ll happen fairly soon. Who knows?”

“他们现在的领导人——这是一个新政权了，好吗？”特朗普说，“并且我认为我们做得很好，但最终结果才是最重要的，也许很快就会有结果。谁知道呢？”

A conga line of reporters also call and ask him about whatever they want to, creating additional mini news cycles. “Trump reacts to FEMA official’s claim he teleported to Waffle House,” was a headline that appeared on CNN’s website this week. It was bizarre and funny, the sort of attention-grabber that keeps Mr. Trump picking up to chat in the first place.

还有许多记者会打电话给他，问他任何他们想问的问题，从而制造出更多小型新闻周期。“特朗普得知FEMA官员声称‘瞬移’到华夫饼屋后的反应”这样的标题本周出现在CNN网站上。这既离奇又搞笑，正是这类能吸引眼球的东西让特朗普一开始就乐于接电话聊天。

And then there is what counts as business as usual at the White House, when Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, ended a briefing with reporters on Wednesday by showing off renderings of a 250-foot-tall arch that Mr. Trump wants built along the Potomac River to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States.

此外还有在白宫被视为司空见惯的事情：周三，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在结束记者会时，展示了一座高约76米的拱门的效果图，这是特朗普希望在波托马克河畔建造的，以纪念美国建国250周年。

For anyone trying to keep up, this all has a kaleidoscopic, disorienting effect. But let’s peel our eyes from the Waffle House and the Jesus memes and the giant stone arch and pause for a question: Isn’t getting into a fight with the Vatican during the middle of a war — and during a midterm election year when the main topic of discussion is the high cost of living — a little extreme, even for Mr. Trump?

对于任何试图跟上节奏的人来说，这一切都有一种令人眼花缭乱、迷失方向的效果。但让我们把目光从华夫饼屋、耶稣表情包和巨大的石拱门上移开，停下来问一个问题：在战争期间——并且在以高昂生活成本为主要讨论话题的中期选举年——与梵蒂冈发生争执，即使对特朗普来说，难道不是有点太极端了吗？

As usual, and as it has always been, this depends on whom you ask.

像往常一样——从来都是这样——这取决于你问谁。

“He has always been like this,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “It all depends upon whether his recent behavior affects his job approval or changes anyone’s opinion about him that they didn’t already have before.”

“他一直都是这样，”资深共和党民意调查专家惠特·艾尔斯说。“这完全取决于他最近的行为是否会影响他的支持率，或者终于改变了某些人对他的看法。”

According to Mr. Ayres, the most critical variable in a midterm election is the job approval of the president. When a president has an approval above 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 14. When the president’s job approval is below 50 percent, the average loss for his party in the House is 32 seats.

根据艾尔斯的说法，中期选举中最关键的变量是总统的支持率。当一个总统的支持率高于50%时，其所在政党在众议院平均失去14个席位。当支持率低于50%时，其政党在众议院平均失去32个席位。

上周，特朗普准备离开白宫，前往迈阿密。

Mr. Trump’s job approval sits at about 39 percent. It hit a first-term low of 34 percent when Mr. Trump left office in January 2021. Mr. Trump had spent much of the previous year minimizing the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and lost the election. The month he left office, as many as 4,000 Americans were dying each day from the virus.

特朗普目前的工作支持率约为39%。当特朗普在2021年1月卸任时，支持率曾触及他第一任期的最低点34%。在那之前的大部分时间里，特朗普都在极力淡化新冠疫情的影响，并输掉了选举。在他卸任的那个月，每天有多达4000名美国人死于该病毒。

When the moment calls for Mr. Trump to publicly show empathy, he often leaves that work to others. When the moment calls for him to put the phone down or back away from a critic, he hits back harder.

当到了需要特朗普公开表达同理心的时刻，他通常会把这项工作留给别人。当到了需要他放下手机或对批评者退让一步的时刻，他会进行更猛烈的反击。

“He’ll double down, lie more and say that everything’s perfectly fine and great, and then do all his bonkers postings,” said Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary for Mr. Trump.

“他会加倍下注，撒更多的谎，声称一切都非常棒、非常好，然后发布他所有那些疯狂的帖子，”特朗普前白宫新闻秘书斯蒂芬妮·格里沙姆说。

But she added: “He’s being erratic, even for him.”

但她也说：“即使对他来说，他也显得太反复无常了。”

With a handful of months to go until the midterm elections, Republican leaders are left with a few choices. Some are choosing their public remarks carefully, gently persuading Mr. Trump — and the White House — to mind the economy.

距离中期选举仅剩几个月，留给共和党领导人的选择已经不多了。一些人正在谨慎选择他们的公开言论，温和地劝说特朗普——以及白宫——多关注经济。

“I’d stay focused on the administration, on the economic issues, the pocketbook issues that I think most Americans care about, and let the church be the church,” Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota and the majority leader, told reporters on Wednesday. Mr. Thune was responding to a question about Vice President JD Vance warning the pope, the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics — a group that includes Mr. Vance — to be “careful” when talking about theology.

南达科他州共和党参议员、多数党领袖约翰·图恩周三告诉记者：“我会把重点放在政府工作上，放在我认为大多数美国人关心的经济问题和钱包问题上，让教会做教会该做的事。”图恩此番言论是在回应一个问题，即副总统JD·万斯警告教宗——14亿天主教徒（包括万斯本人）的精神领袖——在谈论神学时要“小心”。

In the House on Wednesday, six Republicans joined Democrats in moving to force a vote on a measure that would reinstate deportation protections for about 350,000 Haitians living in the United States. The Trump administration has tried to eliminate those temporary protections.

周三在众议院，六名共和党人与民主党人联手推动强制对一项措施进行投票，将恢复对居住在美国的大约35万名海地人的驱逐保护。特朗普政府一直试图取消这些临时保护措施。

G.O.P. leaders also delayed a debate on extending a high-profile warrantless surveillance law because of a rebellion over the bill in their ranks, despite Mr. Trump’s latest Truth Social order directing them to move forward.

共和党领导人还推迟了关于延长一项备受瞩目的无令状监视法的辩论，原因是他们内部对该法案出现了反叛，尽管特朗普最近在Truth Social上下达了指示，要求他们推进该法案。

“I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country!” he declared on social media — striking, given his history of railing against the F.B.I.’s use of a different part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, during the investigation into Russia and his 2016 campaign.

“为了我们伟大的军队和国家，我愿意冒着放弃我作为公民的权利和特权的风险！”他在社交媒体上宣布——这句话令人惊讶，因为在调查俄罗斯及其2016年竞选活动期间，他曾多次猛烈抨击联邦调查局对《外国情报监视法》(FISA)的另一部分条款的利用。

As the United States imposes a blockade of Iranian ports, pressure is mounting on Beijing to push Tehran to accept terms that will end the war and the global energy crisis. In reality, there is little that Beijing could or would do to pressure its partner in the Middle East.

随着美国对伊朗港口实施封锁，北京方面正面临越来越大的压力，要求它推动德黑兰接受结束战争与全球能源危机的条件。但实际上，中国无论从能力还是意愿上，都不会去施压它的这个中东伙伴。

This week, as an array of leaders including the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the prime minister of Spain visited Beijing, the question of what China could do to help resolve the crisis was the inescapable backdrop to every meeting. In these talks, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, condemned the flouting of international law as a “return to the law of the jungle” — a not-so-veiled dig at President Trump — and offered “a Chinese solution” in the form of a four-point plan to resolve the crisis.

本周，随着包括阿布扎比王储和西班牙首相在内的一系列领导人访问北京，中国能为解决危机做些什么成为每一场会谈无法回避的背景。在这些会谈中，中国国家主席习近平谴责无视国际法的行为是“倒回丛林法则”——这是对特朗普总统毫不隐晦的讽刺——并提出以四点主张为核心的“中国方案”来解决危机。

But that plan offers little more than a call for all to respect the principle of sovereignty and international law. It reflects how China, even as it grows more concerned about the war’s impact on its economy, has avoided becoming too entangled in the crisis. That includes being noncommittal in its response to Tehran’s calls for China to guarantee its security, as well as not using its influence as Iran’s largest trading partner to push the country to accept U.S. demands.

但这一方案除了呼吁各方尊重主权原则和国际法之外，并未提供更多实质内容。这反映出，中国尽管越来越担心战争对其经济的影响，但仍避免过度卷入危机。这包括对德黑兰呼吁中国保证其安全的请求不置可否，以及不利用其作为伊朗最大贸易伙伴的影响力来推动它接受美国的要求。

Asking China to pressure Iran is to “misread China’s foreign policy and position,” said Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. “Helping the United States or Israel is not China’s intention because China opposed this war from the very beginning.”

上海外国语大学中东研究所教授丁隆表示，要求中国向伊朗施压是“对中国的外交政策和立场的误读”。他说：“帮助美国或以色列不是中国的意图，因为中国从一开始就反对这场战争。”

中国国家主席习近平周二在北京会见了来自阿布扎比的代表团，其中包括王储。关于中国能在多大程度上帮助解决伊朗危机的问题成为此次会谈挥之不去的背景。

China, which has long claimed that it does not interfere in other countries’ affairs, wants to be viewed as a global leader on its own terms. Unlike the United States, which has long maintained its dominance through its defense alliances, China has only one treaty ally, North Korea.

中国长期以来一直声称不干涉他国内政，希望以自己的方式被视为全球领导者。与长期通过防务联盟来维持主导地位的美国不同，中国只有一个条约盟友，即朝鲜。

And China’s rulers have little desire to commit to another nation’s defense and risk being dragged into a costly war that ultimately undermines their own country’s strength.

而且，中国领导人几乎没有意愿为其他国家提供防务承诺，更不愿被拖入一场代价高昂、最终削弱自身实力的战争。

“Chinese leaders tend to view U.S. interventions in the Middle East as a key driver of American decline and they have no interest in following that model,” said Patricia Kim, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center.

布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心高级研究员帕特里夏·金表示：“中国领导人倾向于将美国对中东的干预视为美国衰落的关键驱动因素，他们没有兴趣效仿这种模式。”

Yes, the Iran war hurts China too.

是的，伊朗战争同样会伤害到中国。

China has a lot to lose if the conflict in Iran continues. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for China’s energy and goods — about a third of its total crude oil imports come from the Persian Gulf. At a time when China is especially reliant on exports to prop up its economy, higher energy costs will cut into demand for Chinese goods.

如果伊朗冲突持续下去，中国将损失惨重。霍尔木兹海峡是中国能源和商品运输的关键通道——中国约三分之一的原油进口来自波斯湾。在中国尤其依赖出口来支撑经济的时候，能源成本上升会抑制对中国商品的需求。

“They have strategic reserves, but it’s not going to last forever,” said Yun Sun, a scholar at the Stimson Center in Washington, referring to oil reserves that China began stockpiling before the war began. “They don’t like instability. They don’t like a war that’s basically hanging over their head,” she added.

华盛顿史汀生中心学者孙韵表示，中国确实拥有战略储备，但“这不可能一直撑下去”，她指的是中国在战争爆发前就开始囤积的石油储备。她补充说：“他们不喜欢不稳定的局势，也不喜欢这种基本上是悬在头上的战争。”

上海的一家石化厂。能源成本上升将会抑制对中国商品的需求。

In a sign of growing concern, Chinese officials engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity this week after talks between the United States and Iran failed to produce a peace agreement.

在美伊谈判未能达成和平协议后，中国官员本周展开了一系列密集的外交活动，显示出日益加深的担忧。

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called on his counterpart in Pakistan, which hosted the talks, to help sustain the “hard-won momentum” of the temporary cease-fire struck last week. Speaking with Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday, Mr. Wang said that China continued to support Iran, but he also urged that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, saying freedom of navigation should “also be guaranteed.”

中国外交部长王毅致电巴基斯坦外长——巴基斯坦是此次谈判的主办方——呼吁其帮助保持上周达成的临时停火所取得的“来之不易停火势头”。在周三与伊朗外长通话时，王毅表示中国将继续支持伊朗，但同时也敦促重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，称航行自由“也应得到保障”。

But Washington’s distraction is also an opportunity.

不过，美国的注意力被分散对中国来说也是一个机会。

In some ways, the war also benefits Beijing. The United States is bogged down in the Middle East rather than focused on the Indo-Pacific, or deterring China’s threats to take Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

从某些方面来看，这场战争也让北京受益。美国被困在中东，而不是将注意力集中在印太地区，或遏制中国对台湾（北京宣称台湾为其领土）的威胁。

And China has been able to use America’s military actions as a way to cast itself by contrast as a peaceful nation that champions global stability.The war also means that more countries, frustrated with Mr. Trump, are turning to China as a more predictable partner.

而中国则能利用美国的军事行动反衬出自己是一个倡导全球稳定的和平国家。这场战争还意味着，更多对特朗普感到失望的国家正转向中国，视其为更具可预见性的合作伙伴

“I think its 50-50 good and bad,” said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. He said that while rising energy costs hurt China’s economy, dissatisfaction with Washington is pushing countries to strengthen ties with China, which helps expand Beijing’s global influence.

“我认为好坏参半，”上海复旦大学美中关系方面的专家信强说。他表示，虽然能源成本上涨损害了中国经济，但对华盛顿的不满正促使各国加强与中国的关系，这有助于扩大北京的全球影响力。

“It shows that China is — at least as we see it — a more responsible country than the United States,” he said. “We’re more trustworthy, more rational and more peaceful.”

“这表明中国——至少在我们看来——是一个比美国更负责任的国家，”他说。“我们更值得信赖、更理性、更爱好和平。”

China doesn’t want to be blamed if peace talks fail.

如果和谈失败，中国不想受到指责。

When Iranian officials credited China for helping push through the cease-fire agreement last week, Beijing did not confirm or deny a role. A foreign ministry spokeswoman said only that China was “working actively” to bring about an end to the crisis.

当伊朗官员上周将促成停火协议的部分功劳归于中国时，北京既未证实也未否认自己所扮演的角色。中国外交部一位发言人仅表示，中国“一直积极致力于”推动危机结束。

That sidestepping suggests that Beijing, wary of the possibility that the cease-fire might fail, played only an indirect role in the talks, according to some analysts, and at most encouraged the sides to come to the table. (Iran may be overstating China’s role in an effort push Beijing to be more vested in any agreement with the United States, according to Dr. Sun.)

一些分析人士认为，这种回避态度表明，北京方面担心停火可能失败，因此在谈判中只发挥了间接作用，最多只是鼓励各方坐到谈判桌前。（孙韵认为，伊朗可能夸大了中国的作用，目的是在与美国达成的任何协议中让北京拥有更大的利益牵扯。）

“I think it is highly unlikely China took an active role in that mediation attempt. The risks are high. It fears being blamed,” said Sarah Beran, a partner at Macro Advisory Partners who served as senior director for China and Taiwan affairs in President Biden’s National Security Council.

曾在拜登政府国家安全委员会担任中国与台湾事务高级主任、现为Macro Advisory Partners合伙人的贝莎兰(Sarah Beran)表示：“我认为中国在调解中发挥积极作用的可能性极低。风险太高了，它害怕承担责任。”

中国外部王毅与巴基斯坦外长达尔上个月在北京会面。本周，王毅敦促巴基斯坦帮助保持“来之不易停火势头”。

China argues that every country has the right to govern itself without outside meddling and positions itself as a power that does not bully others. (Yet, when it comes to what it considers China’s own interests — such as its claims over Taiwan and in the South China Sea — China has used trade bans, tariffs and sent its military and Coast Guard to apply pressure on other countries.)

中国主张，各国都有权在不受外部干涉的情况下进行治理，并将自己定位为一个不欺负他国的大国。（然而，在涉及自身核心利益时，例如对台湾以及南中国海的主权主张，中国就动用了贸易禁令和关税手段，并派遣军队和海警向其他国家施压。）

Also, China lacks the military might to enforce its will.

此外，中国也缺乏足够的军事实力来强推自己的意志。

Part of China’s reluctance to get more involved in the crisis in the Middle East is also a question of capability.

中国不愿更深入地介入中东危机，部分原因也在于能力问题。

China’s rapidly expanding military does not have an expansive network of overseas bases like the United States does, though its navy has stationed an antipiracy task force in the Gulf of Aden since 2008. So far, it has not been deployed to guard Chinese vessels, a step experts say would be unlikely unless Chinese ships came under direct attack.

尽管中国军力迅速扩张，但尚未像美国那样拥有遍布全球的海外军事基地网络。不过，自2008年以来，中国海军一直在亚丁湾部署反海盗护航编队。到目前为止，该护航编队尚未用于护卫中国船只——专家表示，除非中国船只遭到直接攻击，否则不太可能采取这一步。

“China can definitely play a role, but that role remains limited,” said Dr. Xin of Fudan University.

“中国当然可以发挥作用，但这个作用仍然是有限的，”复旦大学的信强博士说。

“If Iran needs security guarantees, it’s very difficult for China to provide them,” he said. “If the U.S. wants Iran to abandon its nuclear program, China has no way to force Iran to give it up.”

“如果伊朗需要安全保障，中国很难提供，”他表示。“如果美国希望伊朗放弃核计划，中国也无法强迫伊朗放弃。”

While Beijing is eager to push for peace, it is also constrained by competing priorities. It needs to manage the economic fallout of the energy crisis, reset its relationship with Washington ahead of a summit between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump, and maintain its ties with both Iran and the Gulf states, which have come under attack from Tehran.

尽管北京有意推动和平进程，但也受到多重优先事项的制约。它既需要应对能源危机带来的经济冲击，又要在习近平与特朗普会晤前重新调整与美国的关系，同时还要维持与伊朗以及海湾国家的关系——而这些海湾国家正受到来自德黑兰的攻击。

As the prospect of a quick victory over Iran by the United States and Israel appears less likely, Beijing’s calculus has shifted.

随着美国和以色列迅速击败伊朗的可能性越来越低，北京的战略考量也发生了变化。

“Had the U.S. been victorious within a week or two, the Chinese would have gone with it,” said Dr. Sun.

“如果美国在一两周内获胜，中国人会顺势跟进，”孙韵说。

Now, China’s current strategy is to seek a cease-fire as quickly as possible, she said, and try to “maximize China’s role, although indirect, in the mediation so that China gains more credibility.”

她表示，目前中国的策略是尽快促成停火，同时“在调解过程中尽量扩大中国的作用，哪怕是间接的，从而提升中国的国际信誉”。

With the United States and China vying for influence in Asia, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is keen to show that Vietnam is in his corner on trade, political ideology and, increasingly, security.

在美国与中国争夺亚洲影响力之际，中国领导人习近平极力想表明，越南在贸易、政治意识形态以及日益重要的安全领域站在中国一边。

That was underscored this week when Mr. Xi met with Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, in Beijing. Mr. Xi alluded to President Trump’s tariffs and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for China and Vietnam to ensure that trade flowed normally and their industrial supply chains were protected.

本周，习近平在北京会见越南新任领导人苏林时，这一点得到了体现。习近平提到了特朗普总统的关税以及霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，以此作为中越需要确保贸易畅通、保护工业供应链的理由。

He also appealed to the two nations’ shared kinship as single-party, communist states.

他还以两国作为一党制共产主义国家的共同纽带来拉近彼此。

“Defending the socialist system and the ruling position of the Communist Party is the greatest common strategic interest,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Lam on Wednesday.

“捍卫社会主义制度和共产党执政地位，是中越两党最大的共同战略利益，”习近平周三对苏林表示。

While both sides agreed to strengthen ties in tourism, education and railway infrastructure, it was their pledges to work more closely on security that may provide China with the greatest advantage over the United States in the rivalry for deeper inroads with Vietnam.

虽然双方同意加强在旅游、教育和铁路基础设施方面的合作，但正是两国在安全领域加强合作的承诺，可能让中国在与美国争夺越南影响力的较量中占据最大优势

As part of its diplomatic outreach, China has been pitching friendly countries its concept of global security, one that prioritizes regime protection above everything else. That has had purchase in Vietnam, which like China, has little tolerance for dissent and has remained repressive even as its economy has developed and opened up to the outside world.

作为外交努力的一部分，中国正向友好国家推广它的全球安全倡议，该倡议将政权安全置于首位。这在越南引起了共鸣——与中国类似，越南也容不得半点不同声音，即使在经济发展和对外开放的过程中，也始终保持着高压统治。

Mr. Lam, a former security chief, recently secured Vietnam’s two most powerful posts, as Communist Party general secretary and the country’s president, an elevation that moves Vietnam closer to the strongman model of China, which Hanoi had long avoided. Even as Mr. Lam has pushed economic changes to unleash the private sector, he has given more power to the police, expanding their reach into business and surveillance.

苏林曾任安全系统负责人，最近同时掌握了越南最具权力的两个职位——越共总书记和国家主席。这一地位的提升使越南更接近中国那种强人治理模式，而河内长期以来一直试图避免走上这条道路。尽管苏林推动了经济改革以释放私营部门活力，但他也赋予了警方更大权力，将其触角扩展到商业领域和监控体系之中。

A day before Mr. Xi and Mr. Lam met, the two countries held a meeting in Beijing of senior security officials that included Gen. Luong Tam Quang, the head of Vietnam’s public security ministry; Chen Wenqing, China’s top security official and a Politburo member; Wang Xiaohong, the head of China’s domestic security agency; and Chen Yixin, China’s spy chief.

在习近平与苏林会晤前一天，两国在北京举行了一场高级安全官员会议，与会者包括越南公安部部长梁三光，中国最高安全官员、政治局委员陈文清，中国国内安全机构负责人王小洪，以及中国的情报部门负责人陈一新。

Chinese and Vietnamese state media said the two sides agreed to boost cooperation in safeguarding “political security.” No details were provided, but in China, this term has become synonymous with a massive surveillance apparatus used to root out activists, rights lawyers and dissidents, while quashing online criticism and protests against the government.

中越两国官方媒体称，双方同意加强在维护“政治安全”方面的合作。尽管未披露具体细节，但在中国，这个词已成为大规模监控体系的代名词，用于铲除活动人士、维权律师和异见人士，同时压制网络批评和针对政府的抗议活动。

The two countries also said they would work together more closely to combat transnational crime such as online gambling and online fraud.

两国还表示，将更紧密地合作打击网络赌博、网络诈骗等跨国犯罪。

Sheena Chestnut Greitens, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin who studies China’s global security initiatives, said China’s Ministry of Public Security has more cooperation agreements with Vietnam than with any other country. She said it was also especially rare for Chinese state media to acknowledge the spy chief’s participation in a security partnership with another country.

得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校研究中国全球安全倡议的政治学家陈喜娜(Sheena Chestnut Greitens)表示，中国公安部与越南签订的安全合作协议比与其他任何国家都多。她还指出，中国官方媒体公开提及情报机构负责人参与与他国的安全合作也极为罕见。

“The density and seniority of security interactions between China and Vietnam is really striking,” she said. “Nothing in U.S. efforts to build defense cooperation with Vietnam comes close to matching this combination of frequency and seniority.”

“中越之间就安全问题进行互动的密度和级别都非常惊人，”她说。“美国在与越南建立防务合作方面所做的努力，无论在频率还是级别上，都无法与之相比。”

Mr. Lam’s visit was his first foreign trip since consolidating power. Vietnam has long followed a tradition in which its top leader chooses Beijing for his first foreign trip, a gesture meant to underscore political ties and a relationship both sides often describe as “both comrades and brothers” between countries under Communist Party rule.

苏林此次访问是他巩固权力后的首次出访。越南长期遵循一项传统：其最高领导人选择北京作为首次外访的目的地，这一姿态旨在强调政治关系，并体现双方常用“同志加兄弟”来形容的、同属共产党执政国家的关系。

Vietnamese officials said the visit was meant to open a new chapter in ties with China, deepening strategic coordination at a time of intensifying competition between Beijing and Washington.

越南官员表示，此次访问旨在开启越中关系的新篇章，在北京与华盛顿竞争日益激烈之际深化战略协调。

For Hanoi, the relationship has long been defined by both necessity and unease. Vietnam’s economy is far more closely tied to China’s than the reverse, leaving Hanoi deeply exposed to its giant neighbor.

对河内而言，这一关系长期以来既是出于现实需要，也是由不安感定义的。越南经济对中国的依赖远高于中国对越南的依赖，使河内在面对这个庞大邻国时处于相对脆弱的地位。

But the two sides have also been locked in disputes over the South China Sea. Last month, Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry criticized China’s resumption of island-building in reefs in the Paracels Islands off Vietnam’s coast.

但双方在南海问题上也一直存在争端。上个月，越南外交部批评中国在越南海岸外的帕拉塞尔群岛（Paracel Islands，中国称为西沙群岛，越南称为黄沙群岛——译注）礁石上恢复填海造岛。

Under Mr. Lam’s leadership, Vietnam is expected to continue its hedging strategy, seeking stable ties with China while balancing them with relations with other major powers, including the United States, another key economic and security partner.

在苏林的领导下，预计越南将继续其对冲策略，一方面寻求与中国保持稳定关系，同时平衡好与包括美国在内的其他大国的关系。美国是越南另一个关键的经济与安全伙伴。

Mr. Lam, in his meeting with Mr. Xi, proposed that both sides should “strengthen political trust and strategic coordination at a new level,” according to an official Vietnamese summary of the talks.

根据越方官方的会谈纪要，苏林在会见习近平时提出，双方应“在新的高度上加强政治互信和战略协调”。

He also sought to signal a more self-assured Vietnamese posture toward Beijing, saying that in areas of disagreement, they should “genuinely respect each other’s legitimate rights and interests,” according to the summary.

他还试图展现越南在对华关系中的更强自信，表示在存在分歧的领域，双方应“尊重彼此的正当合法权益”。

President Trump is trying to cast his Iran war as all but over, a done-and-dusted success.

特朗普总统正试图将他发动的伊朗战争描绘成已近尾声、大局已定的局面。

But after years of trying to impose his own reality on the world, he has now run into a crisis that is not bending to his narrative.

但在多年来强行向世界灌输自己设定的现实之后，他如今遭遇了一场无法被其叙事扭曲的危机。

“It’s a new regime,” Mr. Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday, referring to Iran’s new leaders. “We find them pretty reasonable to be honest with you, by comparison pretty reasonable.”

“这是一个新政权，”特朗普周三在福克斯商业频道的采访中谈及伊朗新领导人时表示，“说实话，我们认为他们相当理性，相对而言非常理性。”

It was the latest instance of Mr. Trump’s trying to spin a “regime change” accomplishment in Iran, even though analysts believe the war may have only increased the internal sway of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the hard-line military force that has long been a major player in Iran’s politics and economy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since he replaced his father, who was killed at the start of the war, but his elevation as head of state has been another symbol of continuity.

这是特朗普最新一次试图把伊朗的“政权更迭”包装成一项政绩。尽管分析人士认为，这场战争反而强化了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的内部影响力——这支强硬派军事力量长期以来都是伊朗政治与经济的核心角色。新任最高领袖阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自接替战争初期被杀的父亲以来从未公开露面，但他就任国家元首本身就象征着政权延续性并未改变。

“Most generously you could say there is a leadership change,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank with a hawkish stance on Iran. “It is incorrect for the proponents of the conflict to frame this as a change for the better.”

“最宽容地说，这只能算是领导层更替，”华盛顿对伊强硬派智库保卫民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任贝赫纳姆·本·塔莱布鲁表示。“支持这场战争的人将其描述为向好转变，这是错误的。”

Indeed, trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal and Iran’s government is not bending to Mr. Trump’s demands on its nuclear program.

事实上，霍尔木兹海峡的贸易远未恢复正常，伊朗政府也并未屈从于特朗普对其核计划的要求。

But in Mr. Trump’s telling, U.S. victory in Iran is already clear. In the Fox Business interview, reprising his frequent comments of the last two weeks, Mr. Trump asserted that Iran’s navy, air force and antiaircraft equipment had all been wiped out, along with many top officials. If Iran did not rule out nuclear weapons, Mr. Trump said, “we will be living with them for a little while, but I don’t know how much longer they can survive.”

但按照特朗普的说法，美国在伊朗的胜利已经板上钉钉。在福克斯商业频道的采访中，他重复了近两周反复强调的论调，声称伊朗海军、空军与防空装备已被全部摧毁，多名高层官员也已毙命。特朗普表示，如果伊朗不放弃谋求核武器，“我们还会再对付他们一段时间，但我不知道他们还能撑多久。”

In fact, analysts say, the 40 days of U.S.-Israeli bombardment that ended with last week’s cease-fire appear to have increased the power of the military and hard-liners in the Iranian system. Despite the widespread destruction and the killings of officials by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, the Iranian regime is acting emboldened, having demonstrated that it can wreak havoc in global trade and send U.S. gas prices soaring.

事实上，分析人士指出，以停火告终的40天美以联合轰炸反而提升了伊朗体制内军方与强硬派的权力。尽管美以军队造成了大面积破坏并击毙多名官员，伊朗政权反而表现得更加大胆，它已证明自己能够重创全球贸易、推高美国汽油价格。

一名女子正穿过德黑兰的恩格拉布广场，头顶是伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的巨幅广告牌。

The result is that a president who has long relied on threats and bluster as essential foreign-policy tools seems to be groping for the leverage to bring Iran’s regime to heel. Analysts say that the success of the administration’s latest effort, its blockade of Iranian ports, depends on the ability of the United States and its allies to withstand the additional pressure that Iran could impose on Persian Gulf trade in response.

结果就是，这位长期将威胁与虚张声势作为核心外交工具的总统如今正摸索能迫使伊朗政权屈服的筹码。分析人士称，美国政府最新手段——对伊朗港口实施封锁——能否成功，取决于美国及其盟友能否承受伊朗为反击而对波斯湾贸易施加的额外压力。

Mona Yacoubian, a former State Department official and Middle East expert, drew a contrast in Mr. Trump’s struggle with Iran to his success in exacting concessions from U.S. allies by threatening them with tariffs.

前国务院官员、中东专家莫娜·雅各布扬将特朗普在伊朗问题上的困境与他通过关税威胁成功迫使盟友让步做了对比。

“This is not something he has control over with the stroke of a pen,” said Ms. Yacoubian, who directs the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “This is where the president’s approach of his own charismatic and powerful personality, in my view, is not a match for the complexity, the opacity, that is the case with Iran.”

“这不是他一纸命令就能掌控的事情，”现任华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任的雅各布扬表示。“在我看来，总统这种依靠个人魅力与强势风格的做法根本无法应对伊朗问题上的复杂性和不透明性。”

The administration has been eager to portray a groundbreaking deal with Iran as being possible. Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday that Mr. Trump sought a “grand bargain” in which the United States would treat Iran “economically like a normal country” if it acted “like a normal country.”

政府急于展现出与伊朗达成突破性协议的可能性。副总统万斯周二表示，特朗普寻求一份“大交易”：如果伊朗表现得“像一个正常国家”，美国将在经济上把它“当作正常国家对待”。

上周末，经过21小时的会谈后，副总统万斯在未与伊朗官员达成协议的情况下离开了巴基斯坦。

“He doesn’t want a small deal,” Mr. Vance said.

“他不想要小打小闹的协议。”万斯说。

Mr. Vance ended an extensive session of talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan last week without an agreement. He said Tuesday that the United States would keep negotiating, and that “the people we were sitting across from wanted to make a deal.”

万斯上周在巴基斯坦与伊朗官员进行长时间谈判后未达成任何协议。他周二表示，美国将继续谈判，并称“坐在我们对面的那些人希望达成协议”。

But Iran appears to have taken note of the leverage it has against Mr. Trump, given the pain of rising gas prices and Republican worries that the unpopularity of the Iran war could hurt the party in the midterm elections in November. That means that even though Iran appears ready to negotiate, its leaders could make demands of their own on matters like the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz, while still driving a hard bargain on nuclear policy, the issue that matters most to Mr. Trump.

但鉴于汽油价格上涨带来的痛苦，以及共和党人担心对伊朗战争的不受欢迎可能会损害该党在11月中期选举中的选情，伊朗似乎已经意识到了自己对特朗普握有筹码。这意味着，即便伊朗看似愿意谈判，其领导人也可能在霍尔木兹海峡未来管控等问题上提出自己的条件，同时在特朗普最看重的核问题上继续强硬讨价还价。

Nate Swanson, a former U.S. official who was on the Trump negotiating team with Iran until July, said the regime in Tehran was not going to capitulate to Mr. Trump’s demands in negotiations, “just as they did not on the battlefield.” Mr. Trump was unlikely to succeed, he said, in “trying to force transformational change on a system that feels like it just won a war.”

曾担任特朗普政府对伊谈判团队成员直至去年7月的前美国官员内特·斯旺森表示，德黑兰政权不会在谈判中屈从于特朗普的要求，“正如他们在战场上没有屈服一样”。他说，特朗普“试图强迫一个自认为刚刚赢得战争的体制发生根本性变革”，这不太可能成功。

“Iran will only make a deal they see as being in their interest,” Mr. Swanson, now at the Atlantic Council, said. “That will most likely be small and transactional.”

“伊朗只会达成他们认为符合自身利益的协议，”现任职于大西洋理事会的斯旺森说。“最终很可能只是小规模、交易性的协议。”

Mr. Swanson also cautioned against reading too much into the perceived pragmatism of individual Iranian negotiators like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker whom Mr. Trump has cast as part of a more moderate, new crop of Iranian leaders. Without a consolidated power base, all Iranian officials will need to emphasize their hard-line bona fides, he said.

斯旺森还提醒，不要过度解读伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫等个别谈判代表表面上的务实态度——特朗普曾将加利巴夫视为伊朗新一代温和派人物。斯旺森表示，由于缺乏稳固的权力基础，所有伊朗官员都必须强调自己坚守强硬立场的诚意。

“It’s not in Ghalibaf’s or anyone else’s interest to stray from the party line right now,” Mr. Swanson said.

“现在，对于加利巴夫或其他任何人来说，偏离官方路线都不符合自身利益，”斯旺森说。

China’s best-known modern writer, Lu Xun, made his name a century ago as a coruscating critic of traditional Confucian culture, foreign bullying and the grandiose pieties of Chinese despots old and new.

一个世纪前，中国最著名的现代作家鲁迅以其对传统儒家文化、外国列强欺凌以及中国历代专制统治者冠冕堂皇的道德说教的犀利批判而声名鹊起。

Today, in his hometown, Shaoxing, a prosperous city in eastern China laced with canals, the writer has transformed from a fiery anti-establishment rebel into a cuddly Communist Party mascot. His prickly character and sharp views have been smoothed as flat as the refrigerator magnets sold across town as souvenir tributes to him.

如今，在他的故乡绍兴——中国东部一座富裕的水乡城市——这位作家已从一个反体制的激烈叛逆者转变为可爱的共产党吉祥物。他原本棱角分明的性格和犀利的观点已被打磨得如同全城各处作为纪念品出售的鲁迅冰箱贴一样光滑扁平。

鲁迅原本棱角分明的性格和犀利的观点已被打磨得如同全城各处作为纪念品出售的鲁迅冰箱贴一样光滑扁平。旅游区里一幅纪念鲁迅的壁画。

Shortly before his death in 1936, Lu Xun wrote that “when the Chinese suspect someone of being a potential troublemaker, they always resort to one of two methods: they crush him, or they hoist him on a pedestal.”

1936年去世前不久，鲁迅曾写道：“中国的人们，遇见带有会使自己不安的朕兆的人物，向来就用两样法：将他压下去，或者将他捧起来。”

Hoisted atop a giant pedestal by Mao Zedong, who in 1940 declared the writer “a hero without parallel in our history,” Lu Xun (pronounced Loo SHWUN) has stood for decades at the center of China’s most expansive literary-political cult.

1940年，毛泽东称鲁迅是“空前的民族英雄”，将他捧上了神坛。几十年来，鲁迅一直屹立在中国最庞大的文学政治崇拜的中心。

Mao’s preferred version of Lu Xun as an iconoclastic enemy of stale orthodoxies, however, has been cast aside in recent years to make way for a tamer, cheerier version — one that’s more in tune with the drive by China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, to promote national pride by celebrating the “glorious achievements” of the country’s past. As such, the author has become something of a case study in the Communist Party’s efforts to repackage China’s complex history to serve its official narrative.

然而，毛泽东推崇的那个作为陈腐教条反叛者的鲁迅近年来已被搁置一旁，取而代之的是一个更温顺、更欢快的版本。这个新形象更符合中国现任领导人习近平的路线——通过歌颂国家过去的“光辉成就”来激发民族自豪感。因此，这位作家已成为中国共产党努力重新包装中国的复杂历史、为官方叙事服务的典型案例。

Under Mr. Xi, the authorities have cracked down hard on negativity, punishing bloggers and online influencers for demonstrating “excessively pessimistic sentiment” — something that Lu Xun himself often displayed.

在习近平领导下，当局严厉打击负面情绪，惩处那些“恶意挑动负面情绪”的博主和网络红人——而这种情绪恰恰是鲁迅本人经常表现出来的。

No longer portrayed by the Communist Party as an irascible rebel, the writer is now represented as a cute Disney-style cartoon character, the stone streets around his childhood home dotted with big fiberglass dolls bearing his likeness.

共产党不再将这位作家描绘成一个脾气暴躁的反叛者，而是将他塑造成可爱的迪士尼风格卡通形象，在他儿时故居周边的石板路上，点缀着许多以他为原型的巨大玻璃钢人偶。

At Lu Xun’s boyhood school in Shaoxing, which he once recalled as a place of such mind-numbing tedium that he wanted his teacher to “fall ill and — ideally — die,” he is remembered on a sign outside as a “diligent and reflective learner” who eagerly soaked up what he was told in the classroom.

在绍兴的鲁迅童年求学旧址——他曾回忆说那里枯燥得令人昏昏欲睡，甚至希望老师“生病，最好是死掉”——但如今，校外的一块牌子将他誉为“勤奋好学的学生”，渴望吸收课堂上讲授的一切。

Across the road, the facade of a Lu Xun museum has been plastered with one of Mr. Xi’s favorite slogans aimed at young people: “Inherit the Red Gene and Promote Patriotism.”

马路对面，鲁迅纪念馆的建筑立面上贴着习近平最喜欢的一句面向青年的口号：“传承红色基因，弘扬爱国主义。”

And in another possible step by officials to revise the author’s image, a big Lu Xun memorial complex in Shaoxing has been closed since the end of last year for “repairs,” as has an even larger complex in Shanghai.

此外，官方似乎还在采取其他举措重塑这位作家的形象：绍兴的一座大型鲁迅纪念综合体自去年年底以来一直因“维修”而关闭，上海的一处更大规模的建筑群也是如此。

绍兴鲁迅母校附近运河上的观光船。

Lu Xun was born Zhou Shuren in 1881 into a scholar-gentry family that had fallen on hard times. He adopted the pseudonym to publish his first major work, “Diary of a Madman,” the first modern short story written in vernacular Chinese, in 1918.

鲁迅原名周树人，1881年出生于一个没落的士绅家庭。1918年，他使用鲁迅这一笔名发表了首部重要作品《狂人日记》，这是中国第一篇用白话文创作的现代短篇小说。

The story’s protagonist, convinced that Confucian tradition encouraged cannibalism, is driven mad by the idea that he had been “living all these years in a place where for 4,000 years they have been eating human flesh.”

故事的主人公确信儒家传统鼓励吃人，并因意识到自己多年来一直生活在一个“四千年来时时吃人的地方”而发疯。

That dark reading of China’s history sits uneasily with Mr. Xi’s “China Dream,” a program of “national rejuvenation” that largely blames foreigners for the country’s past problems and exalts Chinese tradition.

这种对中国历史的阴暗解读与习近平的“中国梦”显得格格不入。后者的“民族复兴”计划在很大程度上将国家过去的问题归咎于外国人，并推崇中国传统。

Hostile to “historical nihilism” — code for any version of history that besmirches the party or China — Mr. Xi has created what Geremie Barmé, an Australian Sinologist who studied in China during the Mao era, calls an “empire of tedium,” a cheery chloroformed calm in which even grumpy troublemakers like Lu Xun are made to smile and fall into line.

习近平对“历史虚无主义”—— 即任何有损党或中国形象的历史叙述——持敌对态度，他所营造的氛围被曾在毛泽东时代留学中国的澳大利亚汉学家白杰明(Geremie Barmé)称为“沉闷帝国”——一种愉悦的、被麻醉后的平静。在这样的氛围之下，即使是像鲁迅这样脾气古怪的麻烦制造者，也要被迫面带微笑，乖乖就范。

But even before Mr. Xi came to power, Lu Xun’s mordant pessimism had drawn flak from some nationalist intellectuals who accused him of channeling colonial-era missionary stereotypes of China as backward and cruel.

但甚至在习近平上台之前，鲁迅辛辣的悲观主义就已遭到一些民族主义知识分子的抨击，他们指责他沿袭了殖民时期传教士对中国落后、残忍的刻板印象。

旅游区展出一张鲁迅与家人的珍贵合影。鲁镇的田园风光，这是一个以鲁迅笔下人物为主题的文学主题公园。

His grandson, Zhou Lingfei, dismissed this as a “serious misreading” of Lu Xun’s works. He declined to be interviewed in person, but said, in a written response to questions, that his grandfather’s “aim was to help the Chinese people stand up and rise above their circumstances, not to blindly copy the West or pander to prejudice.”

鲁迅的孙子周令飞驳斥这是对鲁迅作品的“严重误读”。他拒绝了面对面的采访，但在书面回复中表示，祖父的“目标是帮助中国人民站起来，超越他们自身的处境，而不是盲目模仿西方或迎合偏见”。

The study of Lu Xun has been part of China’s national school curriculum for decades, though the list of his mandatory texts has been periodically pruned to keep up with shifting political winds. Gone since the Chinese army’s 1989 assault on Tiananmen Square, for example, is “In Memory of Miss Liu Hezhen,” a rage-filled essay he wrote to mourn the death of a student protester shot by government troops in Beijing in 1926.

几十年来，鲁迅研究一直是中国国家学校课程的一部分，尽管为了顺应政治风向的变化，他的必读作品清单不时会被修改。例如，自1989年中国军队镇压天安门事件以来，鲁迅那篇义愤填膺的散文《纪念刘和珍君》便从课本中消失了。这篇文章是他为悼念1926年在北京被政府军枪杀的一名学生抗议者而写的。

Also omitted from study is Lu Xun’s observation to the American journalist Edgar Snow about the 1912 collapse of China’s last imperial dynasty: “Before the revolution we were slaves. And now we are the slaves of ex-slaves.”

同样被剔出教学范畴的还有鲁迅向美国记者埃德加·斯诺谈及对1912年满清王朝崩塌后的观察：“我觉得革命以前，我是做奴隶；革命以后不多久，就受了奴隶的骗，变成他们的奴隶了。”

Though hailed by Mao as the “saint of modern China” and a “true Marxist and thorough materialist,” Lu Xun never joined the Communist Party or considered himself a Marxist. He was tormented during the last, illness-plagued period of his life by overbearing party commissars who hijacked a group of left-wing writers that he nominally led, pressuring him to abandon his individualistic ways and embrace “proletarian literature.”

尽管鲁迅被毛泽东赞誉为“现代中国的圣人”，称他“是真正的马克思主义者，是彻底的唯物主义者”，但鲁迅从未加入共产党，也不认为自己是马克思主义者。在生命的最后阶段，他深受疾病困扰，受到权力过大的党内文官的排挤。这些人接管了他名义上领导的一群左翼作家，向他施压，要求他放弃个人主义风格，拥护“无产阶级文学”。

作家雕像旁的一块石碑上镌刻着“民族魂”。几十年来，鲁迅的研究一直是中国国家学校课程的一部分，尽管其必读作品清单会随着政治风向的变化而定期进行调整。

Opposed to Chiang Kai-shek, China’s Nationalist leader from 1928 until 1949, Lu Xun did mentor many young, Communist-inclined writers in the 1920s and ’30s. But his closest disciples, who included the poet and literary theorist Hu Feng, suffered terrible persecution after Mao took power in 1949.

虽然鲁迅反对1928年至1949年间的中国国民党领袖蒋介石，在20世纪二三十年代提携了许多倾向共产主义的年轻作家，但他最亲近的弟子们在1949年毛泽东掌权后却遭受了惨烈的迫害，包括诗人、文艺理论家胡风。

Most foreign scholars and many liberal-minded Chinese believe that Lu Xun would have faced the same fate had he lived long enough to see Communist Party rule. He most likely would have fled China, possibly for Japan, where he had studied medicine as a young man and had many close friends, Mr. Barmé said.

大多数外国学者和许多思想开明的中国人都相信，如果鲁迅活得足够久，能亲眼看到共产党的统治，他也会面临同样的命运。白杰明认为，他很可能会逃离中国，或许前往日本——他年轻时曾在那里学医，并有许多挚友。

In a book published in 2001, a time of relative openness, Lu Xun’s since-deceased son, Zhou Haiying, reported that even Mao had once acknowledged that the writer “would either have gone silent or gone to jail” if he had been alive after the 1949 Communist victory. The book attributed Mao’s remark to a Chinese official and translator who said he had heard it at a private meeting between the Chinese leader and Shanghai intellectuals in 1957.

在2001年（一个相对开放的时期）出版的一本书中，鲁迅已故的儿子周海婴曾披露，毛泽东本人也承认，如果鲁迅在1949年后还活着，“要么是关在牢里还要写，要么他识大体不做声”。书中称毛泽东的这段话是由一位中国官员兼翻译披露，该官员称这是他在1957年毛泽东与上海知识分子的私人会面中亲耳所闻。

Party historians insisted in 2018 that Mao never said any such thing, citing the “untrue rumor” as an example of why China must commit to a “long and arduous struggle against historical nihilism.”

2018年，党史学家坚称毛泽东从未说过这样的话，并引用这个“以讹传讹”作为中国必须致力于“反对历史虚无主义的持久战”的例子。

这位天生爱唱反调的作家已从共产主义革命的烈焰象征蜕变为惹人喜爱的吉祥物。鲁镇的一家礼品店，游客可以在这里购买以鲁迅为主题的冰淇淋、面条和开衫等商品。

On the edge of a lake in Shaoxing, a literary theme park called Lu Town has recreated the settings of Lu Xun’s best-known stories. A stone inscription next to a statue of the writer at the entrance celebrates him as “the soul of China.” Stalls hawk Lu Xun-themed ice cream, noodles, cardigans and knickknacks.

在绍兴的一个湖边，一个名为“鲁镇”的文学主题公园再现了鲁迅最知名故事中的场景。入口处鲁迅雕像旁的一段石刻赞美他是“民族魂”。摊位上兜售着以鲁迅为主题的冰淇淋、面条、开衫和各式小玩意。

Lu Xun’s grandson, Mr. Zhou, said he welcomed the park’s “initial intention” — getting young people to engage with a long-dead author whose idiosyncratic prose, a mix of classical and modern Chinese, is often hard to understand — but “firmly opposes excessive commercialization and cheap entertainment.”

鲁迅的孙子周令飞表示，他赞同该园区的“初衷”——引导年轻人接触这位早已故去的作家，其半文半白的独特文风往往晦涩难懂——但他“坚决反对过度商业化和低俗娱乐”。

“The True Story of Ah-Q,” a biting satire that ends with the execution of its main character, is played for laughs in a small theater in Lu Town that stages five short shows a day.

《阿Q正传》是一部尖锐的讽刺小说，以主人公被处决告终，但在鲁镇的一家小剧院里，这部作品却被演绎成了闹剧，每天上演五场。

旅游区一家商店里，作家身着其标志性毛衣的剪影。

A character created by Lu Xun in 1921 as a craven Chinese Everyman, the original Ah-Q cuts a pathetic figure, groveling to the authorities while bullying the powerless.

鲁迅在1921年创作的这个人物是一个懦弱的中国普通人形象；原作中的阿Q是一个可悲的角色，一面对权贵摇尾乞怜，一面欺凌弱者。

The Shaoxing theme park has turned this bleak story into slapstick comedy. During one recent show, the postal worker-turned-actor who plays Ah-Q hammed it up onstage and, afterward, posed for selfies with Chinese tourists. Lu Xun, the actor said, “was writing about a very different time” when China was still poor and weak, and needed to be reminded that the flaws of people like Ah-Q were to blame.

绍兴的主题公园将这个凄凉的故事改成了滑稽喜剧。在最近的一场演出中，扮演阿Q的是一名邮递员转行的演员，他在台上卖力表演，在演出结束后与中国游客合影。这位演员说，鲁迅“写的是一个非常不同的时代”，那时中国还贫穷落后，需要被提醒，阿Q这类人的缺陷是导致贫弱的原因。

Today, he added, those shameful times have passed and “Ah-Q is dead.”

他补充道，现如今，那些可耻的时代已经过去，“阿Q已经死了”。

Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year.

铁路和其他基础设施的强劲投资抵消了疲弱的消费支出和贸易顺差缩小带来的影响，中国经济在今年前三个月继续保持增长。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.3 percent from the last three months of 2025. If that pace continues through the year, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of about 5.3 percent.

中国国家统计局周四公布，今年第一季度国内生产总值环比增长1.3%。如果这一增速全年保持，中国经济年度增长率将达到约5.3%。

In comparison with the same period last year, China’s gross domestic product was 5 percent larger in the first quarter. The figures came in slightly above economists’ forecasts for 4.8 percent growth.

与去年同期相比，今年第一季度中国GDP增长5%，略高于经济学家此前预测的4.8%。

One reason this year’s growth looked stronger was that the statistical agency said Thursday that the economy was weaker in the first half of last year than previously reported. That made this year’s results look better by comparison.

今年增长数据显得较强的一个原因是，统计局周四表示，去年上半年经济表现比之前公布的更弱，这使得今年数据对比之下显得更好。

A long, steep slide in apartment prices has eroded China’s household savings, prompting many people to cut spending. Retail sales rose just 2.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and only 1.7 percent in March, considerably weaker than what most economists had expected. Car sales fell 17 percent in the quarter after the government scaled back subsidies that had driven a boom last year.

长期大幅下跌的房价侵蚀了中国家庭的储蓄，导致许多人减少支出。第一季度社会消费品零售总额同比增长仅2.4%，3月份仅增长1.7%，远低于多数经济学家的预期。由于政府缩减了去年推动汽车销售火爆的补贴，汽车销量第一季度下降17%。

That sluggishness contrasts sharply with an 8.9 percent increase in infrastructure construction investments in the first quarter from a year ago.

这种低迷与基础设施建设投资形成鲜明对比，后者在第一季度同比增长8.9%。

The service sector has been struggling. Restaurants have closed across the country, and those still open echo with empty tables. Xiao Nan Guo, a nationwide chain offering Shanghainese cuisine at premium prices, exemplifies the downturn. After peaking at 139 outlets in 2015, it quietly shuttered most of its remaining locations in early February.

服务业处境艰难。全国各地多家餐厅关闭，仍营业的餐厅也常常空桌寥寥。高端上海菜全国连锁品牌“小南国”就是这一低迷的典型。该品牌曾在2015年达到139家门店的峰值，今年2月初已悄然关闭了大部分剩余门店。

伊朗战争导致的原材料成本上涨似乎正对中国经济发展构成压力。

Exports have propped up the Chinese economy through much of its housing slump since 2021. But this time they failed to offset broader weakness after a big surge in China’s largest category of imports, computer chips.

自2021年房地产低迷以来，出口在很大程度上支撑了中国经济。但这一次，在中国最大进口品类——计算机芯片大幅激增之后，出口未能抵消更广泛的经济疲弱。

Weak demand at home has pushed Chinese companies to seek growth abroad. Exports grew during the first three months of this year at their fastest quarterly clip in more than four years, led by electric car exports, up 78 percent, and a 50 percent rise in shipments of lithium batteries. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, said overseas sales were keeping factories busy across China.

国内需求疲软促使中国企业转向海外寻求增长。今年前三个月，出口增速创下四年多以来最快的季度增速，其中电动汽车出口增长78%，锂电池出货量增长50%。标普全球评级亚洲及太平洋首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示，海外销售让中国各地的工厂保持忙碌。

“It has been robust exports that have been a key driver of industrial production and G.D.P.,” he said.

“强劲的出口一直是工业生产和GDP增长的关键驱动力，”他说。

It is unclear if export strength will last. Tariffs and rising raw material costs from the war in Iran appeared to weigh on the Chinese economy in March. Chinese officials are expected to press for relief from U.S. tariffs at a summit next month in Beijing between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

目前尚不清楚出口强劲势头能否持续。关税和伊朗战争导致的原材料成本上升，似乎在3月份对中国经济造成了拖累。预计中国官员将在下个月于北京举行的特朗普与习近平峰会期间要求美国减轻关税。

由于塑料成本上升挤压制造商利润，中国的玩具和鞋类出口已出现下滑。​

China remains better positioned than other major economies to weather disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the war in Iran because of its large stockpiles of fossil fuels and dominant position in renewable energy. But China’s March trade data showed some unexpected shifts that sharply narrowed the country’s trade surplus.

由于拥有大量化石燃料储备，并在可再生能源领域占据主导地位，中国比其他主要经济体更有能力应对伊朗战争导致的石油和天然气供应中断。但中国3月份的贸易数据出现了一些意外变化，导致贸易顺差大幅收窄。

China’s exports of toys and footwear, once strong categories, fell as higher plastic costs from the war in the Middle East squeezed manufacturers. Chemical companies have continued raising prices, suggesting further pressure in the months ahead.

中国曾经强势的玩具和鞋类出口出现下降，因为中东战争推高了塑料成本，挤压了制造商利润。化工企业继续提高产品价格，表明未来几个月压力将进一步加大。

Exports of rare-earth metals also plummeted in March. Beijing severely restricted shipments to Japan, amid a dispute over relations with Taiwan.

3月份稀土金属出口也大幅下滑。此前北京因在台湾问题上引起的争端，严厉限制了对日本的稀土出货。

The most notable change has been a surge in semiconductor imports, as China rapidly builds data centers for artificial intelligence. Computer chip purchases jumped in January and February and hit a record high in March, up 54 percent from a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms.

最显著的变化是半导体进口激增，这是因为中国正在快速建设人工智能数据中心。今年1月和2月芯片采购量大幅增加，3月份更是创下纪录，按美元计算同比增长54%。

中国南京一处堆场内的硫磺。过去几年，出口一直支撑着中国经济。​

A weak renminbi, China’s currency, has made computer chip imports more expensive, adding to the drag on the economy. Beijing has kept its currency weak to boost exports, making Chinese goods more competitive abroad.

人民币疲软使得计算机芯片进口成本更高，进一步拖累经济。北京刻意保持人民币偏弱，以提振出口，增强中国商品在海外的竞争力。

But that same currency weakness raises import costs. The increasing semiconductor costs also reflect heightened global demand for the computer chips needed to power A.I. While the renminbi has strengthened slightly over the past year, it remains far weaker than what economists consider its true market value.

但同样的货币疲软也推高了进口成本。半导体成本上升还反映出全球对人工智能所需芯片的需求高涨。虽然人民币过去一年略有升值，但仍远低于经济学家认为的真实市场价值。

本月，中国盐城一个宁德时代电池工厂建设工程正在进行场地准备。​

Export sectors that rely heavily on steel are thriving in China these days. Domestic steel is cheap because of chronic oversupply and reluctance to close state-owned steel mills. With other countries’ tariffs limiting direct exports of steel, manufacturers are channeling the glut into finished goods like cars and ships, which face fewer trade barriers.

目前，高度依赖钢铁的出口行业在中国表现良好。由于长期产能过剩以及不愿关闭国有钢厂，国内钢铁价格低廉。在其他国家关税限制钢铁直接出口的情况下，制造商将过剩钢铁转化为汽车、船舶等成品出口，这些产品面临的贸易壁垒较少。

Li Rongchun, who owns a small business in Yancheng supplying acetylene and oxygen to nearby shipyards, said he had more orders than he could handle. “Right now, shipyards are building a lot of oil tankers and container ships, and many foreign clients are coming,” he said.

在盐城经营一家小企业、为附近船厂供应乙炔和氧气的李荣春（音）表示，他的订单多到忙不过来。“现在船厂正在大量建造油轮和集装箱船，很多外国客户都来了，”他说。

But in another nearby town, the picture is far more bleak. A resident who gave only his family name, Shao, said that property prices at complexes in his neighborhood had dropped by more than half over the past year and that even steep discounts were not enticing buyers.

但在附近另一个小镇，情况则要惨淡得多。一位只愿透露姓邵的居民表示，他所在小区的房价在过去一年下跌超过一半，即使大幅打折也吸引不到买家。

“There are just too many empty apartments — even at very low prices, no one wants to buy them,” he said.

“空置的房子实在太多了——即使价格很低，也没人愿意买，”他说。

Residential construction has slowed sharply over the past four years, but apartment sales have declined even faster, leaving a growing glut of unsold homes and making buyers wary of committing their savings to a purchase.

过去四年，住宅建设大幅放缓，但公寓销售下滑得更快，导致未售出住房库存不断增加，也让买家对拿出积蓄购房更加谨慎。

造船业等高度依赖钢铁的出口行业，在中国正蓬勃发展，部分原因在于国内钢铁价格低廉。

Mr. Kuijs said prices were likely to keep falling this year before bottoming out next year. But with residential construction already down so much, there isn’t much room for building activity to fall further. Any stabilization would ease a major drag on growth.

高路易表示，房价今年很可能继续下跌，明年才有望触底。由于住宅建设活动已经大幅减少，进一步下降的空间已经不大。任何企稳迹象都将缓解经济增长的一大拖累。

“That drag will remain this year,” Mr. Kuijs said, “but it probably won’t be as intense as it was in previous years.”

“今年这一拖累仍将存在，”高路易说，“但可能不会像前几年那么严重了。”

For years, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni enjoyed leverage as the right-wing leader who could bridge the gap between Europe and President Donald Trump.

多年来，意大利总理梅洛尼作为一位能够弥合欧洲与特朗普之间分歧的右翼领导人，享有一种政治筹码。

This week, though, she seems to have decided that Trump is a bridge too far.

但本周，她似乎认定，特朗普成了她跨不过去的坎。

After suffering major political setbacks because of her association with Trump, who is deeply unpopular in Italy and seen as the cause of rising gas prices, Meloni seized on an opportunity to extricate herself from a relationship that had grown domestically and internationally poisonous. After Trump launched a broadside Monday against Pope Leo XIV, Meloni rallied to the American pontiff’s defense, saying, “I find President Trump’s remarks about the Holy Father unacceptable.”

由于与特朗普的关系让她在政治上遭遇重大挫折——特朗普在意大利极不受欢迎，并被视为油价上涨的罪魁祸首——梅洛尼抓住机会，试图摆脱这段在国内外都日益“有毒”的关系。周一，在特朗普猛烈抨击教宗良十四世后，梅洛尼迅速为这位美籍教宗辩护，称“我认为特朗普总统对教宗的言论是不可接受的”。

Trump, clearly jilted, lashed out at Meloni, saying in an interview with an Italian newspaper Tuesday that he hadn’t talked to her “in a long time,” was vexed by her lack of participation in the war in Iran and was “shocked by her,” adding, “I thought she was brave, but I was wrong.” He responded to her “unacceptable” criticism by snapping, “She’s the one who’s unacceptable.” On Wednesday, he added in a television interview that with Italy, “we do not have the same relationship.”

特朗普显然觉得遭到了抛弃，于是对梅洛尼发起攻击。他在周二接受一家意大利报纸采访时说，自己已经“很久”没和她说过话了，对她未参与伊朗战争感到恼火，并且“对她感到震惊”，还说：“我原以为她很勇敢，但我错了。”针对梅洛尼“不可接受”的批评，他厉声回击道：“她才是不可接受的。”周三，他在一次电视采访中补充说，与意大利“我们不再有以前那种关系了”。

德黑兰一块表现霍尔木兹海峡形势的广告牌，摄于本周。伊朗战争加剧了特朗普与梅洛尼之间的紧张关系。

The spat seemed to be the end of, or at least a low point for, perhaps Trump’s most special relationship in Europe.

这场口水战似乎意味着特朗普在欧洲或许最特殊的一段关系走到了尽头，或者至少是跌入了低谷。

It is also another remarkable moment in the career of Meloni, who has over decades shifted from teenage neofascist activist to hard-right party leader — before finally emerging as a pragmatic conservative and the first female prime minister of Italy.

这也是梅洛尼政治生涯中又一个引人注目的时刻：数十年来，她从一名青少年新法西斯主义活动人士，转变为强硬右翼政党领导人，最终成为一位务实的保守派，并当选为意大利首位女总理。

When Trump returned to power last year, many in the European establishment feared that he would pull her to the far-right extremes. Instead, analysts suggest, Trump may have actually pushed her deeper into the Europe mainstream.

去年特朗普重新掌权时，欧洲建制派中的许多人都担心他会把梅洛尼拉到极右翼的极端立场上去。然而，分析人士认为，特朗普实际上可能反而把她推向了欧洲主流。

“In the relationship with Trump, she originally thought he could be an asset, and maybe he was, because she could appear as the person that could mediate between the rest of Europe and Trump,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Florence. “But gradually it has become a liability. I think she took advantage of what he said about the pope to make a firm statement and take distance. She couldn’t do otherwise.”

佛罗伦萨大学政治学荣休教授罗伯托·达利蒙特表示：“在与特朗普的关系中，她最初认为他可以成为一种资产，而且某种程度上确实如此，因为她可以把自己塑造成一个在欧洲其他国家与特朗普之间的调解者。但这种关系逐渐变成了一种负担。我认为她利用了他对教宗的言论，借机明确表态并拉开距离。她别无选择。”

At first, Meloni’s connection to Trump had the makings of a beautiful friendship.

最初，梅洛尼与特朗普的关系似乎颇有成为一段佳话的潜力。

2018年，梅洛尼邀请特朗普的前首席顾问班农作为她政治会议的贵宾。

In 2018, when she was still a marginal figure looking for oxygen in Italy’s crowded populist space, Meloni invited Trump’s former top adviser, Steve Bannon, to be the guest of honor at her political conference, named after a hero in “The NeverEnding Story.” The next year, she proudly called herself “the only Italian” invited to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. She spoke on the same day as Trump, and from her seat in the audience gushed about his remarks on social media even as he delivered them.

2018年，当她仍是意大利拥挤的民粹主义政治空间中一个边缘人物、急需关注时，梅洛尼邀请特朗普的前首席顾问史蒂夫·班农作为贵宾，出席她以《大魔域》中的一个英雄式人物命名的政治会议。她自豪地称自己是受邀在华盛顿保守派政治行动会议上发言的“唯一意大利人”。她与特朗普同一天发言，并且就在他演讲的同时，在台下通过社交媒体对他的讲话大加赞赏。

In 2022, she said in an interview with The New York Times: “Trump did some very good things when he was president. For example, in foreign policy, we had no problems. There were no wars.”

2022年，她在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示：“特朗普在担任总统期间做了一些非常好的事情。比如在外交政策方面，我们没有遇到问题，没有战争。”

Years later, when they were both at the height of their power, they seemed to be hitting it off.

数年后，当两人都处于权力巅峰时，他们看上去很合得来。

“You don’t mind being called beautiful, right?” Trump said to Meloni at a summit in Egypt last October. “You are.”

去年10月在埃及举行的一次峰会上，特朗普对梅洛尼说：“你不介意被称为美女吧？你就是。”

Despite the public displays of affection, throughout his second term, Trump has increasingly put pressure on Meloni, along with other European allies, to increase Italy’s military spending and to accept unfavorable trade terms.

尽管有这些公开的热络互动，但在特朗普的第二任期内，他不断向梅洛尼以及其他欧洲盟友施压，要求意大利增加军费开支，并接受对其不利的贸易条件。

She showed signs of resistance. Last April, as Trump threatened to raise tariffs, she said, “I think the choice of the United States is a wrong choice,” even as she cautioned against retaliatory tariffs from Europe.

梅洛尼也表现出一些反抗迹象。去年4月，在特朗普威胁提高关税之际，她说，“我认为美国的选择是错误的”，但同时也提醒欧洲不要采取报复性关税。

Then things started getting tense. In January, as Trump increasingly began to float the idea of taking Greenland, she said, “I don’t believe in the idea of the U.S. launching military action on Greenland, which I would not agree with.” Days later, when Trump walked back his threats, she spoke as someone who understood him, saying she was “not surprised, to be honest.”

随后，事情开始变得紧张起来。今年1月，当特朗普不断提出接管格陵兰岛的想法时，她说：“我不相信美国会对格陵兰岛发动军事行动，我也不会同意这么做。”几天后，当特朗普收回这些威胁时，她以一种了解他的人的口气说：“说实话，我并不感到意外。”

But when Trump decided to attack Iran, he did not give Meloni a heads-up. To her humiliation, her defense minister was vacationing in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, at the time and had to be evacuated via military jet.

但当特朗普决定对伊朗发动攻击时，并未提前告知梅洛尼。令她难堪的是，她的国防部长当时正在迪拜度假，不得不乘坐军用飞机撤离。

The war also led to a spike in gas and electricity prices in Italy. Meloni, a populist with a sharp sense of pocketbook issues, understood the political danger, especially as Italians prepared to vote in a referendum on a crucial judicial change that she supported.

这场战争还导致意大利的汽油和电价飙升。作为一名对民生问题高度敏感的民粹主义政治人物，梅洛尼清楚其中的政治风险，尤其是在意大利即将就她所支持的一项关键司法改革举行全民公投之际。

As poll after poll showed that Italy did not support the war and did not like Trump, Meloni started speaking out.

随着一项又一项民调显示意大利民众既不支持这场战争，也不喜欢特朗普，梅洛尼开始公开表态。

“I am concerned, obviously, because it would be stupid to believe that what happens even far from our borders does not involve us,” she said March 2, adding, “The United States and Israel decided to attack without the involvement of their European partners.”

“我当然感到担忧，因为如果认为发生在远离我们国界的事情与我们无关，那就太愚蠢了，”她在3月2日表示，还说：“美国和以色列是在没有欧洲伙伴参与的情况下决定发动攻击的。”

Days later, she made it clear that “we are not at war and we do not want to go to war.” She dispatched Guido Crosetto, the defense minister who had been marooned in Dubai, to be even more forceful, saying the attack by the United States and Israel “certainly happened outside the rules of international law.” She then added in a speech to parliament that because the United States had problems communicating, she couldn’t necessarily endorse the U.S. assessment that Iranian intransigence had thwarted negotiations over a deal.

几天后，她明确表示“我们没有处于战争状态，也不希望陷入战争”。她派出一度被困在迪拜的国防部长圭多·克罗塞托作出更为强硬的表态，称美国和以色列的攻击“显然发生在国际法规则之外”。随后，她在议会演讲中补充说，由于美方在沟通上存在问题，她未必认可美方关于伊朗的顽固态度阻碍了谈判达成协议的说法。

For all her effort to distance herself from Trump’s war, she badly lost the referendum on the judiciary anyway, after the vote became perceived as a plebiscite on her own popularity. In an effort to settle scores with those she believed had done her wrong, she fired a minister and aides whom she held responsible for the defeat.

尽管她竭力与特朗普的战争保持距离，但在司法公投中仍然遭遇惨败——这场投票被视为对其个人支持度的一次公投。为清算她认为导致失败的责任人，她解雇了一名部长及数名助手。

But analysts said that a rupture with Trump was the breakup that would matter most to Italian voters. And Trump’s attack on the pope gave her an opening.

但分析人士表示，与特朗普的决裂才是意大利选民最为看重的。而特朗普对教宗的攻击给了她一个机会。

Now, experts say, Meloni will have to decide if she wants to go it alone, or seek closer alliances in the European establishment that she rose to power bashing.

如今，专家表示，梅洛尼必须决定是选择单打独斗，还是与她上台时曾猛烈抨击的欧洲建制派寻求更紧密的联盟。

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, reflecting investors’ optimism that a peace deal would be reached before the war in Iran could inflict significant damage on corporate America.

标普500指数周三创下新的历史收盘纪录，这反映出投资者乐观认为，在伊朗战争对美国企业造成重大损害之前，和平协议有望达成。

The benchmark stock index, which is widely watched across the world as a barometer of the health of the U.S. market, rose about 0.8 percent to close above 7,000 and higher than its previous peak, reached in January. The index had already erased its losses during the war in Iran and now sits 2 percent higher than it was before the fighting began in late February.

这项全球广泛关注的基准股指，作为美国市场健康状况的晴雨表，上涨约0.8%，收盘突破7000点，超过今年1月创下的前高。该指数已完全抹去伊朗战争期间的全部跌幅，目前比2月底战争爆发前的水平高出约2%。

Even as a spike in oil prices has led to a gloomier economic outlook, investors have been embracing signals in recent days that the United States and Iran could restart talks that ended last weekend in Pakistan without a deal but with comments from President Trump that he believed the war was nearing an end.

尽管油价飙升导致经济前景更加黯淡，但投资者最近几天仍积极回应相关信号：美国和伊朗可能重启谈判。上周末在巴基斯坦结束的谈判虽未达成协议，但特朗普总统表示，他相信战争即将结束。

The mere posture toward peace has helped to placate the stock market. Since the cease-fire took hold last week, investors have noted a shift in tone by the Trump administration that reflects a desire to end the conflict soon.

仅仅转向和平的姿态就已帮助安抚了股市。自上周停火生效以来，投资者注意到特朗普政府的语气发生转变，显示出希望尽快结束冲突的意愿。

“The market is trading assuming we have seen the worst of the conflict,” said Stefano Pascale, an equity analyst at Barclays.

“市场的交易是在假设我们已经看到了冲突最糟糕的阶段，”巴克莱银行股票分析师斯特凡诺·帕斯卡莱表示。

The S&P 500 is now on course for its third straight week of gains, the kind of winning streak not seen since October. The index has risen about 10 percent since March 30 — the nadir of the recent sell-off.

标普500指数目前有望连续第三周上涨，这是自去年10月以来未见的连胜纪录。自3月30日（近期抛售低点）以来，该指数已累计上涨约10%。

Still, some market watchers have been perplexed by the recent rally, which has taken place as the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway on Iran’s southern coast that serves as a crucial shipping lane for the world’s oil supply, has remained throttled. Even if a formal peace deal is achieved between the United States and Iran, it could take a long time to get ships moving again and repair damage to ports and other oil facilities. High oil and gas prices have been feeding into rising U.S. inflation and tumbling consumer confidence.

然而，一些市场观察人士对近期的反弹感到困惑，因为伊朗南部海岸的霍尔木兹海峡——这条对全球石油供应至关重要的狭窄航道——仍处于受阻状态。即使美国和伊朗达成正式和平协议，船舶恢复通航以及修复港口和其他石油设施也可能需要很长时间。高企的油气价格已推高美国通胀，并导致消费者信心下滑。

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession. Even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done, the I.M.F. warned as it cut its forecasts for economic growth.

国际货币基金组织周二表示，石油市场中断可能拖累经济增长、加剧通胀，并增加全球衰退的风险。IMF警告称，即使战争短暂，全球经济也已遭受损害，并因此下调了经济增长预测。

“What is a little strange is that there is a tendency by some to assume that it’s business as usual,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday when asked about the seeming exuberance of markets at an event held by Bloomberg in Washington.

“有点奇怪的是，有些人倾向于假设一切照旧，”欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周二在华盛顿的一场彭博社主办活动上被问及市场看似火热的表现时说道。

The longer oil markets are disrupted from the conflict, the greater the risk to the global economy and to financial markets. But in a further sign that equity investors already consider the end of the war to be in sight, stocks have rallied in recent weeks even on days when oil prices have risen.

石油市场因冲突而中断的时间越长，对全球经济和金融市场的风险就越大。但股市投资者似乎已认为战争结束在即——即使在油价上涨的日子，股市最近几周仍出现反弹，这进一步印证了这一点。

A widely watched monthly fund manager survey by Bank of America, conducted over the week through April 9, showed the most bearish outlook among investment managers since June of last year. Expectations for economic growth plummeted in the latest survey and the outlook for inflation shot higher.

美国银行针对基金经理的一项广受关注的月度调查（截至4月9日当周）显示，投资经理的展望是去年6月以来最悲观的。最新调查中，对经济增长的预期大幅下滑，而对通胀的预期则急剧上升。

But importantly, few responded that they thought this would lead to a recession. And without a recession, investors have been able to return to focusing on the otherwise strong backdrop provided by corporate earnings that kicked off this week.

但重要的是，很少有人认为这会导致衰退。而且只要没有衰退，投资者就能重新将注意力转向本周开始公布的企业财报所展现的强劲基本面。

Analysts expect a sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with some anticipating the best earnings season in roughly five years. And that has provided solid support for valuations to shrug off March’s market struggles.

分析师预计，这将是企业盈利连续第六个季度实现双位数增长，有些人预计这将成为大约五年来最好的财报季。这为估值提供了坚实支撑，使其能够摆脱3月份的市场动荡。

“As corporate earnings are the biggest driver of stock returns, this level of steadfast earnings growth is an incredibly positive sign given that the market has been hammered in the first quarter by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent oil prices skyrocketing to some of their highest levels in decades,” said Hardika Singh, a strategist at Fundstrat.

“由于企业盈利是股市回报的最大驱动力，在第一季度市场因霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭而遭受重创、油价飙升至几十年高位的情况下，这种稳健的盈利增长是一个极其积极的信号，”Fundstrat策略师哈尔迪卡·辛格表示。

JPMorgan Chase, the banking bellwether, on Tuesday reported a $17 billion profit for the first three months of the year, considerably more than analysts expected. The bank slightly lowered its forecast for profits in the remainder of the year, but still expects to earn more than $100 billion. Its executives expressed worry about energy costs weighing on consumers but stressed that the labor market remained healthy. Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America also reported strong profits this week.

银行业领军企业摩根大通周二公布，今年前三个月实现170亿美元利润，大幅超出分析师预期。该银行略微下调了今年剩余时间的盈利预测，但仍预计全年盈利超过1000亿美元。高管们对能源成本拖累消费者表示担忧，但强调劳动力市场依然健康。高盛、花旗和美国银行本周也均公布了出色的利润数据。

Bolstering the signal sent by the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies — typically seen as more susceptible to economic shocks — has also rallied sharply. The index has risen over 12 percent since March 30 and began trading on Wednesday just 0.5 percent away from its January record.

除了标普500指数发出的信号，小型公司罗素2000指数——通常被视为更易受经济冲击影响——也出现大幅反弹。自3月30日以来，该指数已上涨超过12%，周三开盘时距离1月纪录高点仅差0.5%。

Big technology companies have led the S&P 500 higher but the recovery has been broader than just the darlings of the artificial intelligence boom. More than 80 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 are now higher than they were on March 30.

大型科技公司引领标普500指数走高，但此次反弹的范围已超出人工智能热潮中的龙头股。目前标普500指数中超过80%的公司股价已高于3月30日的水平。

However, just as the stock sell-off had been somewhat contained by an awareness that this administration could change its mind quickly, many analysts are urging a similar caution as the market now moves higher.

然而，正如此前的股市抛售在一定程度上因投资者意识到本届政府可能迅速改变主意而得到控制一样，许多分析师现在敦促市场在走高时保持类似谨慎。

U.S. stocks are still facing “two-tailed risks,” analysts at Bank of America noted.

美国银行分析师指出，美股仍面临“双尾风险”。

The rise in energy stocks, which had been boosted by the rise in oil prices stemming from the war, has now faded. Shares of consumer staples like General Mills or Dollar General remain significantly lower than before the war began, with both companies down more than 20 percent since the end of February. Roughly two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 remain lower than they were when the war began.

此前因战争导致油价上涨而走强的能源股涨幅现已消退。像通用磨坊或达乐这样的消费必需品公司股价仍远低于战争爆发前的水平，自2月底以来均下跌超过20%。标普500指数中约有三分之二的公司股价仍低于战争开始时的水平。

“The obvious risk is that we have not seen the worst of the conflict,” Mr. Pascale said.

“显而易见的风险是，我们尚未看到冲突最糟糕的阶段，”帕斯卡莱表示。

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil rose to power by fighting for the rights of workers. Now, in an awkward twist, his government is being accused of stifling concerns about labor abuses by a major Chinese carmaker.

巴西总统卢拉以捍卫工人权益起家。如今却出现了一个颇为尴尬的反转：他的政府被指控压制对一家中国大型汽车制造商侵犯劳工权益的担忧。

The crisis comes after Mr. Lula’s government dismissed a top labor ministry official just days after he added the Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD to a national registry of employers accused of subjecting workers to conditions similar to slavery.

这场危机发生在卢拉政府解雇一名劳工部高级官员之后。就在几天前，这名官员将中国电动汽车巨头比亚迪列入了一个全国性的不良雇主名单，该名单专门记录被指控让工人在类似奴役条件下工作的企业。

The episode has placed the government of Mr. Lula, a former union leader who co-founded the leftist Workers’ Party, in an uncomfortable position. And it has highlighted the growing prominence of Chinese automakers in Brazil, where they have made an aggressive push by pouring billions into building plants and expanding EV sales.

这一事件让卢拉政府陷入尴尬境地。卢拉曾是工会领袖，也是左翼政党工人党的共同创始人。这也凸显了中国汽车制造商在巴西日益增长的影响力——它们通过投入数十亿美元建设工厂、扩大电动车销售，在巴西大举扩张。

Brazil’s labor minister, Luiz Marinho, said the dismissal of his top labor inspection official, Luiz Felipe Brandão de Mello, was a routine personnel change but declined to say whether it was related to BYD.

巴西劳工部长路易斯·马里尼奥表示，解雇劳工监察负责人路易斯·费利佩·布兰多·德梅洛只是一次常规人事调整，但拒绝说明此举是否与比亚迪有关。

“Changes are natural, they happen,” Mr. Marinho told The New York Times in an interview. “It’s my responsibility as minister to assemble a team.”

“人事调整是很正常的事情，总会发生，”马里尼奥在接受《纽约时报》采访时说。“组建团队是我作为部长的责任。”

But to labor groups and government watchdogs, the timing of Mr. Mello’s departure raised alarms.

但对于劳工团体和政府监督机构来说，德梅洛在这个节骨眼上离职令人警觉。

Just before he was let go, Mr. Mello had signed off on BYD’s inclusion on a “dirty list” of labor offenders after an investigation concluded the company had violated human rights at a construction site in northeastern Brazil. There, Chinese employees building one of its plants were found living in squalid conditions and working over 10 hours per day, with almost no days off.

就在被解职前不久，德梅洛刚批准将比亚迪列入“黑名单”，此前一项调查得出结论，该公司在巴西东北部的一处建筑工地存在侵犯人权的行为。在那里，为比亚迪建厂的中国工人被发现生活条件恶劣，每天工作超过10小时，几乎没有休息日。

Workers were lured into the jobs with promises of higher salaries, the investigation found, and were not free to end their contracts or leave the site. In a crackdown in late 2024, the Brazilian authorities ultimately removed more than 160 workers from what they said were slave-like conditions, which BYD has blamed on a subcontractor.

调查发现，工人们被高薪承诺引诱到这些工作岗位，但他们实际上无法自由解除合同或离开工地。在2024年底的一次执法行动中，巴西当局最终将160多名工人从其所称的类似奴役的条件下解救出来。比亚迪则将责任归咎于一家分包商。

卡马萨里的比亚迪工厂建设工地的一名工人，摄于去年。

Under Brazilian law, companies found to engage in such labor practices must be added to the registry within several months. Ahead of a deadline in early April, Mr. Mello added BYD to the list.

根据巴西法律，被认定存在此类用工行为的企业必须在数月内被列入名单。在4月初的最后期限到来之前，德梅洛将比亚迪加到了名单上。

On April 8, at the request of the Chinese automaker, a labor court agreed to suspend the decision pending further judicial review of whether BYD can be held responsible for its contractors. Then, on Monday, Brazil announced Mr. Mello’s dismissal in the official government gazette.

4月8日，应这家中国汽车制造商的要求，一家劳工法院同意暂停该决定，等待进一步司法审查，以确定比亚迪是否应对其承包商的行为承担责任。随后，巴西于周一在政府公报上宣布了德梅洛解职的消息。

The move made headlines, causing an outcry from labor groups. Brazil’s national association of labor inspectors accused the minister of political meddling and called Mr. Mello’s firing “a serious sign of institutional retaliation.”

此事登上了新闻头条，引发劳工团体的强烈抗议。巴西全国劳工监察员协会指责劳工部长存在政治干预行为，并称解雇德梅洛是“严重的体制报复信号”。

“He was obeying the law and fulfilling his duty,” said Rodrigo Carvalho, the association’s national coordinator. “This turns a technical public policy decision into a political one.”

“他是在依法行事、履行自己的职责，”该协会全国协调员罗德里戈·卡瓦略表示，“这把一个技术性的公共政策决定变成了政治决定。”

Mr. Marinho dismissed accusations of political interference, insisting that he does not seek to aid any company and works to ensure technical decisions made by his team are sound.

劳工部长马里尼奥否认了政治干预的指控，坚称自己并未试图帮助任何公司，而是致力于确保其团队所作出的技术性决定是合理的。

Mr. Mello did not respond to a request for comment.

德梅洛没有回应置评请求。

BYD also did not respond to a request for comment. In the past, it has shifted blame for conditions at the Brazil site to a subcontractor in charge of the construction, saying it no longer does business with the company.

比亚迪也未回应置评请求。此前，该公司曾将巴西工地的相关问题归咎于负责施工的分包商，并表示已终止了与对方的合作。

This week, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry sidestepped questions about BYD’s human rights record in Brazil, saying that China “attaches great importance to protecting the lawful rights and interests of workers” and is working with Brazil on the issue.

本周，中国外交部发言人回避了有关比亚迪在巴西违反人权的提问，仅表示中国“高度重视保障劳动者合法权益”，并正在与巴西就该问题开展合作。

Appearing on Brazil’s list of slavery offenders can carry serious consequences for companies, damaging their reputation, barring them from certain bank loans and making them less appealing to investors.

被列入巴西的奴役劳动名单会给企业带来严重后果，损害其声誉，使其无法获得某些银行贷款，并降低对投资者的吸引力。

圣保罗的一家比亚迪经销店。巴西是中国电动汽车的巨大市场。

Brazil, a car-loving country of 213 million, is BYD’s biggest market outside China. In recent years, Chinese electric vehicles have surged in popularity in Brazil, Latin America’s largest nation, now representing about 80 percent of the E.V. market.

巴西是一个有2.13亿人口、热爱汽车的国家，是比亚迪在中国以外最大的市场。近年来，中国电动汽车在拉丁美洲最大国家巴西迅速走红，目前约占其电动汽车市场80%的份额。

The firestorm set off by Mr. Mello’s firing adds to the scrutiny surrounding Mr. Marinho, who has been an ally of Mr. Lula since their days as union organizers on the outskirts of São Paulo.

围绕德梅洛解职所引发的风波也加剧了外界对劳工部长马里尼奥的审视。自上世纪在圣保罗郊区一起从事工会组织工作时起，马里尼奥就是卢拉的盟友。

Last year, Mr. Marinho stepped in to prevent several companies from being added to the slavery registry, including a division of the Brazilian meatpacking giant JBS. The legality of his actions is being challenged in Brazil’s Supreme Court.

去年，马里尼奥曾出面阻止多家公司被列入奴役劳动名单，其中包括巴西肉类加工巨头JBS的一个部门。他这一行为的合法性目前正在巴西最高法院受到质疑。

With just months to go before a presidential election, the most recent episode threatens to tarnish Mr. Lula’s image as a defender of workers, an issue that for decades has formed the backbone of his political reputation.

在距离总统选举仅剩数月之际，最近的这一事件有可能损害卢拉作为工人捍卫者的形象——这一形象数十年来一直是其政治声望的核心支柱。

A former metalworker with a fifth-grade education, Mr. Lula rose to prominence as a union leader in the 1970s and 1980s, leading tens of thousands of workers in a series of strikes defying the military dictatorship at the time.

卢拉曾是一名仅受过小学五年级教育的金属工人，20世纪70年代至80年代，他作为工会领袖崭露头角，领导数万名工人发起一系列罢工，反抗当时的军事独裁统治。

Inspired by his work as a union organizer, Mr. Lula co-founded the Workers’ Party in 1980. Promising to represent workers’ interests, he was elected to the national legislature in 1986 and, propelled by populist support, rose to the presidency in 2003 for the first time.

受工会组织经历的启发，卢拉于1980年与他人一起创立了工人党，承诺代表工人利益。他在1986年当选为国会议员，并在民粹主义支持的推动下，于2003年首次当选总统。

Yet his party has lost much of its shine in recent decades, and Mr. Lula now faces the prospects of a tough race as he seeks a fourth term as president in an unpredictable national election this October.

然而，近年来，工人党失去了往昔的光环。在今年10月充满不确定性的全国大选中，卢拉寻求第四个总统任期，如今他面临着一场艰苦的竞选。

For much of the last two decades, China has maintained a delicate balance in its military relationship with Iran, offering often indirect assistance instead of arms sales.

过去二十年的大部分时间里，中国在与伊朗的军事关系中一直维持着一种微妙的平衡，通常提供间接援助，而不是直接出售武器。

That approach is now drawing renewed attention after U.S. officials said intelligence agencies were assessing whether China may have shipped shoulder-fired missiles to Iran in recent weeks. President Trump has said he would impose an additional 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods if the assessment proves accurate. China has denied the claim, calling it “pure fabrication” and has vowed to “resolutely retaliate” if the Trump administration goes through with tariffs.

这种做法如今再次受到关注，因为美国官员表示，情报机构正在评估中国最近几周是否向伊朗输送了肩扛式导弹。特朗普总统表示，如果评估结果属实，他将对中国商品额外征收50%的关税。中国否认这一指控，称其为“纯属捏造”，并誓言如果特朗普政府实施关税将“坚决反制”。

The American officials said the information obtained by U.S. intelligence agencies was not definitive. But if proven true, it would be a significant tactical change in the way Beijing supports its closest strategic partner in the Middle East.

美国官员称，美国情报机构获得的信息并非确凿无疑。而如果得到证实，这将标志着北京支持其中东最亲密战略伙伴的方式发生重大的战术转变。

Chinese arms sales to Iran exploded in the 1980s and have all but vanished in the last decade to comply with a United Nations embargo and U.S. sanctions. Chinese support for Iran in recent years has instead come in the form of components that could be used in both civilian technologies as well as missiles and drones.

中国对伊朗的武器销售在1980年代曾急剧增长，但为遵守联合国武器禁运和美国制裁在过去十年几乎完全消失。近些年来，中国对伊朗的支持转为提供可用于民用技术以及导弹和无人机的零部件。

China has a major stake in the crisis in Iran. About a third of its total crude oil imports come from the Persian Gulf.

中国在伊朗危机中有着重大利益。其原油进口总量约有三分之一来自波斯湾。

Here is how China’s military support for Iran has evolved over the years:

以下是中国对伊朗军事支持多年来演变的情况：

The 1980s: The Boom Years

1980年代：繁荣期

The outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 coincided with major market reforms in China when the leader at the time, Deng Xiaoping, ordered state-owned companies to wean themselves off government support and instead seek commercial profit.

1980年两伊战争爆发时正值中国进行重大市场改革。当时的领导人邓小平要求国有企业摆脱政府扶持，转而寻求商业利润。

Chinese state-run defense companies were suddenly empowered to export their wares. That resulted in a deluge of Chinese missiles, fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles and assault rifles being sold to Iran starting in 1982 and peaking in 1987, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

中国国有国防企业突然获得出口权。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据，从1982年开始，大量中国导弹、战斗机、坦克、装甲车和突击步枪被出售给伊朗，并于1987年达到峰值。

At the same time, China sold even more arms to Iraq, resulting in a situation in which the two warring sides clashed with each other using the same Chinese weapons.

与此同时，中国向伊拉克出售了更多武器，导致交战双方在冲突中使用同样的中国武器。

The Reagan administration opposed China’s arms sales to Iran, particularly Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles. Tehran used the missiles in attacks in Kuwaiti waters in 1987 that struck an American-owned tanker and an American-registered tanker.

里根政府反对中国向伊朗出售武器，尤其是“蚕”式反舰巡航导弹。1987年，德黑兰使用这些导弹在科威特水域发动袭击，击中一艘美国拥有的油轮和一艘悬挂美国旗帜的油轮。

1987年，一艘名为“海岛城号”的美国注册油轮在科威特水域被伊朗导弹击中后的情景。

The United States responded by curbing exports of some high-technology products to China. China denied selling arms directly to Iran, but said it would do more to prevent its military exports from reaching Iran through intermediaries.

美国随即限制向中国出口部分高技术产品。中国否认直接向伊朗出售武器，但表示将采取更多措施，防止其军品出口通过中间商流向伊朗。

The 1990s: Technology Transfers

1990年代：技术转让

Following the war, Iran set out to develop its own military-industrial base with the help of China. One of its key products was the Noor anti-ship cruise missile, which had been reverse-engineered through purchases of Chinese C-802 cruise missiles.

战争结束后，伊朗在中国帮助下着手发展自己的军事工业基础。其中一项关键产品是“努尔”反舰巡航导弹，该导弹是通过采购中国C-802巡航导弹进行逆向工程得到的。

“China played a major role in supporting Iran’s military modernization for decades, especially in developing Iran’s missile capabilities,” said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“中国几十年来在支持伊朗军事现代化方面发挥了重要作用，尤其是在发展伊朗导弹能力方面，”战略与国际研究中心中国力量项目研究员布赖恩·哈特表示。

伊朗官方媒体发布了一张照片，称这是2010年一次演习中发射的伊朗制造的“努尔”导弹。

Iran also received help from China in building missile-production facilities and even in constructing a missile test range east of Tehran, wrote Bates Gill, a longtime China expert, in the Middle East Review of International Affairs.

资深中国问题专家季北慈(Bates Gill)在《中东国际事务评论》上称，伊朗还在中国的帮助下建造了导弹生产设施，甚至在德黑兰以东建设了一个导弹试验场。

Under U.S. pressure to curtail its sale of finished weapons, particularly missiles, to Iran, China began increasing exports of machine tools and components that could be used for both military and civilian purposes.

在美国压力下减少向伊朗出售成品武器（尤其是导弹）后，中国开始增加出口机床和可用于军民两用的零部件。

The 2000s to the Present: Dual-Use Technologies

2000年代至今：军民两用技术

In 2006, the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. China voted in favor of the resolution and largely pivoted away from new, formal arms contracts with Tehran.

2006年，联合国对伊朗核计划和弹道导弹计划实施制裁。中国投票赞成该决议，并基本放弃了与德黑兰签订新的正式武器合同。

The shift was as much about regional strategy as it was about international law. Starting in the mid-2010s, China began deepening its strategic relationships with Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, traditional rivals of Iran, as well as Qatar.

这一转变既与国际法有关，也与地区战略考量有关。从2010年代中期开始，中国开始深化与海湾国家的战略关系，其中包括伊朗的传统对手沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国以及卡塔尔。

China continued to supply Iran with dual-use technologies and materials that have helped it amass an arsenal of missiles and drones.

中国继续向伊朗提供军民两用技术和材料，帮助其积累了大量导弹和无人机库存。

That included chemicals used to produce fuel for ballistic missiles and components for drones, such as radio frequency connectors and turbine blades

这包括用于生产弹道导弹燃料的化学品，以及无人机零部件，例如射频连接器和涡轮叶片。

But Mr. Hart said China was still “a critical form of support, given Iran’s reliance on ballistic missiles and drones to attack U.S. and Israeli forces and other countries in the region.”

但哈特表示，“鉴于伊朗依赖弹道导弹和无人机攻击美国和以色列部队以及该地区其他国家，”中国仍然是“一种关键的支持形式”。

去年在德黑兰举行的阅兵式上展示的武器。

The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Chinese and Hong Kong front companies it says were set up to source parts and ingredients for ballistic missiles and drones for Iran.

美国财政部已制裁了一些中国和香港的幌子公司，据称这些公司是为伊朗获取弹道导弹和无人机零部件及原料而设立的。

Suspicions are also growing that Iran is using its access to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system, an alternative to the U.S.-owned Global Positioning System, for military purposes. Last month, a U.S. congressional agency said BeiDou may have been used to direct Iran’s drone and missile strikes across the Middle East.

外界还越来越怀疑伊朗正在将其获取的中国北斗卫星导航系统——一种美国全球定位系统GPS的替代方案——用于军事目的。上个月，美国国会下属的一家机构表示，北斗系统可能已被用于引导伊朗在中东地区的无人机和导弹袭击。

In 2022, the Biden administration tried to arrest China’s development of artificial intelligence by denying it cutting-edge semiconductors. President Trump has relaxed that policy a bit without a clear plan to replace it.

2022年，拜登政府试图通过切断先进半导体供应来遏制中国的人工智能发展。特朗普总统则在没有明确替代方案的情况下，稍微放松了这一政策。

But the chip export controls have failed. China’s tech sector is too sophisticated to be stopped from building powerful A.I. In pursuing an impossible objective, the United States is missing an opportunity to try for one that sounds fanciful but which, after a recent reporting trip to China, I believe is more realistic: America should negotiate with China a global pact on A.I. safety, which would impose universal limits on a technology that can do much good — but, in the wrong hands, would do much harm.

但芯片出口管制已经失败了。中国的科技行业自成体系，无法阻止其构建强大的人工智能系统。在追求一个不可能实现的目标时，美国错失了尝试争取的机会：虽然听起来有些理想化，但在最近一次中国采访之行后，我认为它更为现实：美国应与中国就人工智能安全问题达成一项全球性协议，对这项能够带来巨大好处——但若落入坏人之手将造成巨大危害的技术施加普遍限制。

The premise of the export restrictions was that the United States would be able to successfully block China’s access to powerful A.I. chips. The premium chip sets used in A.I. data centers are the size of skateboards and can’t be smuggled in a simple suitcase, and it’s hard to put them to use without hands-on support from the chipmakers’ engineering teams. But Chinese developers circumvented controls by training their A.I. models on chips located in other countries. A Chinese model builder needs only to rent capacity on an A.I. data center in one of China’s Southeast Asian neighbors. Concealing the model’s Chinese origin is straightforward.

出口限制的前提是，美国能够成功阻止中国获得强大的人工智能芯片。用于人工智能数据中心的高端芯片组件体积如滑板般大小，不可能用手提箱轻易走私，而且在没有芯片制造商工程团队现场支持的情况下，也很难投入使用。但中国的开发人员通过位于其他国家的芯片上训练人工智能模型来规避管制。中国的模型开发者只需在某个东南亚邻国的人工智能数据中心租用算力即可。而且掩盖模型的中国来源并不难。

Partly thanks to this loophole, China has rolled out a series of excellent A.I. models. China’s ability to skirt U.S. controls will not change, even if the Senate follows the House in passing a bill to restrict China’s access to outside data centers. China is learning how to do without cutting-edge chips by stacking less powerful chips together. Its model builders also take full advantage of a process known as distillation. Every time a U.S. lab produces a cutting-edge model, Chinese rivals quickly reverse-engineer its capabilities and build a copycat version. The follower has the advantage.

部分得益于这一漏洞，中国已经推出了一系列出色的人工智能模型。即便参议院跟进众议院，通过一项限制中国使用境外数据中心的法案，中国规避美国管控的能力也不会改变。中国正在学会通过将较弱的芯片叠加使用来替代先进芯片，其模型开发者还充分利用一种被称为“蒸馏”的过程。每当美国实验室推出先进的模型，中国竞争者就会迅速对其能力进行逆向工程，并构建出模仿版本。后来者反而具备优势。

American A.I. scientists used to say that competitors’ being able to follow fast would not matter. An “intelligence explosion” was approaching, the argument went. A.I. systems would soon become capable enough to write upgrades into their own code: A.I. would create better A.I.; better A.I. would create even better A.I.; recursive self-improvement would drive performance skyward. The nation that reached this so-called singularity first would be the winner of the A.I. race, even if the fast follower were just a few months behind the leader. Three and a half years after the Biden administration’s chip controls, A.I. is generating code to upgrade itself. The promised feedback loop has started.

美国的人工智能科学家过去常说，竞争对手能够快速跟进并不重要。他们认为，一场“智能爆炸”正在逼近。人工智能系统将很快变得足够强大，能够自己写代码来升级自己：人工智能将创造更好的人工智能；而更好的人工智能又将创造更更好的人工智能；递归式的自我改进将使性能迅速飙升。率先达到所谓“奇点”的国家，即便领先优势只有几个月，也将赢得人工智能竞赛。在拜登政府实施芯片管制三年半后，人工智能已经开始生成用于自我升级的代码。人们所预言的那个“反馈循环”已经启动了。

But the accelerating power of the leading models won’t determine who wins the A.I. race. It’s A.I. deployment that will matter. To transform economies and armies, A.I. must be embedded in business processes and weapons systems. The raw power of the cutting-edge models must be turned into applications.

但领先模型能力的加速提升并不会决定谁赢得人工智能竞赛。真正重要的是人工智能的落地应用。要改变经济和军队，人工智能必须嵌入到业务流程和武器系统中。最先进模型的原始算力必须转化为实际应用。

The upshot is that China and the United States are roughly level in the A.I. contest. Top Chinese models may be a few months behind American ones, and the relative position on military applications is difficult to ascertain as so much is classified. But on industrial applications, China seems to be leading. U.S.-sanctioned companies such as Huawei and Hikvision are rolling out A.I. systems that perform maintenance checks on high-speed trains, manage mining operations and scan water samples to assess pollution. At Huawei’s campus near Shenzhen, I recently took a ride in an autonomous car. A device in the passenger seat massaged my back, and the steering was immaculate.

结论是，中国和美国在人工智能竞争中大致处于同一水平。中国顶尖模型可能落后美国几个月，而在军事应用方面，由于大量信息属于机密，双方的相对位置难以判断。但在工业应用方面，中国似乎领先。像华为和海康威视这样受到美国制裁的公司，正在推出用于高铁维护检测、矿山运营管理以及水样污染检测的人工智能系统。在深圳附近的华为园区，我最近还体验了一次自动驾驶汽车：副驾驶座上的设备会为我按摩背部，转向操作无可挑剔。

Fans of chip controls continue to insist that even a modest slowing of China’s A.I. advance is worth pursuing. If China is a formidable adversary, imagine how much more formidable it might be if the chip controls were lifted. But the controls are failing to deliver the prize of a China with limited A.I., so it is worth considering their cost. My China trip persuaded me that the cost is too high.

芯片管制的支持者仍坚持认为，即便只是稍微减缓中国人工智能的发展，也值得去做。如果中国已经是一个强大的对手，那么可以想象，一旦取消芯片管制，它会变得多么可怕。但这些管制并没有实现限制中国人工智能发展的目标，因此有必要重新评估其代价。这次中国之行让我相信，这一代价过于高昂。

The Biden administration made a strategic choice to prioritize the slowing of China rather than addressing other worries. The alternative would have been to say to China: You are a tech superpower. We are a tech superpower. Let’s work together to make sure A.I. doesn’t fall into the hands of rogue states and terrorists. The goal would have been an A.I. equivalent of the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a regime that would require all countries using A.I. to sign up for safeguards on it.

拜登政府做出了一个战略选择：其优先考量是减缓中国的发展，而非着手应对其他方面的担忧。而当时本可以采取的另一种策略是对中国说：你是一个科技超级大国，我们也是一个科技超级大国。让我们合作，确保人工智能不会落入流氓国家和恐怖分子之手。目标应当是达成一项类似于1968年《核不扩散条约》的人工智能协议，建立起一套制度，要求所有使用人工智能的国家都必须遵守相关安全保障。

The Biden team did not think China would collaborate on something like that. But over a dozen conversations with A.I. leaders in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou made it clear to me that China’s elite does care about A.I. safety.

拜登团队认为，中国不会在这方面合作。但我在北京、上海、深圳和杭州与人工智能领袖进行的十多次交谈清楚地表明，中国的精英阶层确实关心人工智能安全问题。

I visited a prominent tech company that builds and distributes an A.I. foundation model. For now, that model is open source, meaning that users can download and modify it at will. If a user prompts the A.I. to conduct cyberattacks, there’s nothing anyone can do to stop that person. But the chief executive of this tech company made a striking admission: As A.I. becomes more powerful, it would be crazy to continue making it open source, he said. You wouldn’t open-source a nuclear weapon, he added.

我访问了一家开发并发布人工智能基础模型的知名科技公司。目前，该模型是开源的，这意味着用户可以自由下载和修改。如果有人要求该人工智能发起网络攻击，几乎没有办法阻止。但这家公司的首席执行官坦率承认：随着人工智能变得越来越强大，继续保持开源将是疯狂的。他补充说，你不会把核武器开源。

During my trip, the controversy surrounding the advanced model OpenClaw illustrated the rising concern for A.I. safety. Throngs of ordinary Chinese downloaded the digital assistant, eager to experiment with a capable A.I. agent. The enthusiasm apparently confirmed that China loves innovation more than it fears it. But researchers and industry leaders told me that they were appalled. OpenClaw makes your computer “naked,” an eminent business school professor told me. Soon after he said that, China’s leaders firmly discouraged the use of OpenClaw on government systems and warned citizens that the agent might wreak havoc with their data.

在我此次访问期间，先进模型OpenClaw引发的争议凸显了人们对人工智能安全日益增长的担忧。大量普通中国用户下载了这一数字助手，渴望尝试这一强大的智能体。这种热情似乎印证了中国对创新的热爱超过了对风险的担忧。但研究人员和行业领袖告诉我，他们对此感到震惊。一位知名商学院教授表示，OpenClaw会让你的电脑“裸奔”。他发表这一看法后不久，中国的领导人便明确反对在政府系统中使用OpenClaw，并警告公众该智能体可能对他们数据造成巨大破坏。

For now, China’s instinct to race for powerful A.I. overwhelms any caution. This is a rational response to a U.S. administration that is equally determined to put speed ahead of safety. But if a U.S. leader went to China and offered to scrap chip controls in exchange for collaboration on A.I. nonproliferation, there would be at least some chance of the proposal succeeding.

目前，中国竞逐强大人工智能的本能压倒了所有的谨慎。这是对同样决心将速度置于安全之上的美国政府的理性回应。但是，如果一位美国领导人前往中国，提出取消芯片控制以换取在人工智能防扩散方面的合作，这一提议至少存在一定成功的可能性。

This presumes that U.S.-Chinese dialogue is even possible. But the West should not succumb to self-fulfilling fatalism. At times during the Cold War, the United States pursued its interests by switching from confrontation to détente: the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty came just six years after the Cuban missile crisis. Now is a good time to recall that history.

这一设想的前提是美中对话仍然可能。但西方不应陷入消极的自我预言。在冷战期间，美国有时会通过从对抗转向缓和来推进自身利益：《核不扩散条约》正是在古巴导弹危机发生仅六年后达成的。现在正是回顾这段历史的好时机。

Donald Trump ascended to office 10 years ago while publicly jousting with Pope Francis, who was routinely making headlines for the progressive Catholicism he elevated, pushing the Roman Catholic Church to focus on climate change and the rights of immigrants. The pope suggested that Mr. Trump was “not Christian”; Mr. Trump fired back that Francis was “disgraceful.”

10年前，特朗普就任总统时曾与教宗方济各公开论战。当时，方济各因推行进步天主教理念频频登上头条，推动罗马天主教会关注气候变化与移民权利。教宗曾称特朗普“不是基督徒”，特朗普则反击称方济各“可耻”。

Mr. Trump capitalized on growing discontent among conservative Christians and won the White House. The chasm only further widened between the Vatican and conservative American Catholics, who often saw in Mr. Trump a champion.

特朗普利用保守派基督徒日益增长的不满情绪赢得了大选。梵蒂冈与美国保守派天主教徒之间的裂痕由此进一步扩大，后者常将特朗普视为他们的捍卫者。

Pope Leo XIV, who was elected less than a year ago, is not Francis. For Mr. Trump, who is now in his second term, he presents a new foil at the Vatican with a markedly different standing among Catholics. As the first American in the seat of St. Peter, he has a native fluency in American politics and culture, and his leadership is supported across broad swaths of the American church.

当选不足一年的教宗良十四世与方济各截然不同。第二任期的特朗普在梵蒂冈遇到了一位全新对手，他在天主教徒中的地位与前任截然不同。作为首位坐上圣彼得宝座的美国人，良十四世对美国政治与文化有着与生俱来的熟悉，其领导地位也获得了美国教会广泛群体的支持。

This new dynamic was at play in a pointed exchange on Sunday night and Monday, when Mr. Trump unleashed a tirade on social media against Leo, who then stood his ground.

这种全新态势在周日晚间至周一的激烈交锋中尽显无遗：特朗普在社交媒体上对良大肆抨击，教宗则寸步不让。

“I’m not sure this is ultimately going to be a positive fight for the president to wage,” said Matt Salisbury, whose firm provides strategic communications for many conservative Catholic clients.

“总统发起这场论战，我看最终恐怕对他没什么好处，”为众多保守派天主教客户提供战略传播服务的马特·索尔兹伯里表示。

He added that many of his Catholic friends in the Washington area who, like him, voted for Mr. Trump, including some who work in the administration, were “unanimously critical” of the president’s outburst.

他还说，自己在华盛顿地区的许多天主教友人——他们和他一样投票支持特朗普，其中包括一些在政府任职的人——都“一致批评”总统的过激言论。

Unlike his predecessor, Leo has growing support from conservative Catholics in pews across the United States. As the anniversary of his election approaches next month, he has so significantly rebuilt the Vatican’s relationship with the American Catholic right that many in Mr. Trump’s own camp rushed to the pope’s defense on Monday.

与前任不同，良十四世正日益获得美国各地保守派天主教徒的支持。下个月将是他当选一周年，他已大幅修复了梵蒂冈与美国天主教右翼的关系，以至于特朗普阵营内不少人周一纷纷站出来为教宗辩护。

Interviews with conservatives attending Mass at Catholic parishes across the country revealed significant displeasure with the president for his harsh criticism of the pope, a dynamic hard to imagine not long ago.

对全国各地天主教堂参加弥撒的保守派信徒的采访显示，他们对总统严厉批评教宗的行为极为不满，这种局面在不久前还是难以想象的。

Outside midday Mass at the Basilica of Our Lady of San Juan del Valle National Shrine in San Juan, Texas, not far from the border with Mexico, Rudy Gutiérrez, 68, said he had voted for Mr. Trump in each of the past three presidential elections. But the attack on the pope for speaking out against war in Iran amid the threat of escalating violence went too far, he said.

在靠近墨西哥边境的得克萨斯州圣胡安市，圣胡安圣母国家圣殿大教堂的午间弥撒结束后，68岁的鲁迪·古铁雷斯说，过去三次总统选举他都投给了特朗普。但他认为，教宗针对伊朗战争升级风险发声反战却遭特朗普总统攻击，这实在太过分了。

“As a Catholic, I take offense to that, and I am Republican,” Mr. Gutiérrez said.

“作为天主教徒，我对此感到被冒犯，而我还是共和党人，”古铁雷斯说。

At first, many conservative Catholics were wary of Leo’s election, worrying he might be a Francis protégé. But he quickly made it clear that he was gently returning the church to a more traditional path. He has chosen to live in the pope’s quarters of the Apostolic Palace and to renew an old practice of Pope John Paul II by carrying the cross through the Colosseum on Good Friday. He has focused on issues like artificial intelligence, a largely nonpartisan issue in the church, and has not antagonized conservatives over the Latin Mass.

起初，许多保守派天主教徒对良当选心存疑虑，担心他是方济各的门徒。但他很快明确表示，自己正温和地将教会带回更传统的路线。他选择住在宗座宫的教宗官邸，并恢复了约翰·保罗二世时期在耶稣受难日手持十字架穿过罗马斗兽场的旧例。他聚焦人工智能等教会内基本无党派分歧的议题，也未在拉丁弥撒问题上激怒保守派。

2015年教宗方济各访问纽约期间在肯尼迪机场。许多保守派天主教徒不喜欢方济各直言不讳地倡导贫困群体和移民权益。

When Pope Francis toured the United States in 2015, it was his first time in the country. Pope Leo, born Robert Prevost in Chicago, was elected last May after spending most of his career abroad in South America and then Rome.

2015年教宗方济各访美是他首次踏上美国国土。而本名罗伯特·普雷沃斯特的教宗良十四世出生于芝加哥，去年5月当选之前的职业生涯大部分时间在南美、随后在罗马度过。

“Where you’re from matters,” said Kathleen Sprows Cummings, a history professor who specializes in Catholicism at the University of Notre Dame. “He’s got friends, he’s got siblings in the United States. He understands American politics. He knows Republicans and Democrats.”

“出生地很重要，”圣母大学专攻天主教历史的凯瑟琳·斯普劳斯·卡明斯教授说。“他在美国有朋友、有兄弟姐妹。他懂美国政治，了解共和党和民主党。”

“That doesn’t mean that’s why he was elected, or he’s even approaching this as an American,” she said. “But he understands it and he would have been paying attention to Donald Trump in a way that Pope Francis wouldn’t have.”

“这并不意味着他当选是因为这个原因，甚至不意味着他会以美国人的视角处理事务，”她表示。“但他理解美国政治，而且他关注唐纳德·特朗普的方式是方济各不会做的。”

Leo’s modest, calm style also shapes his approach to how he manages volatile American politics. Many conservative Catholics disliked Francis’ outspoken advocacy for the poor and migrants, which they viewed as coming at the expense of other priorities. Although Leo also speaks out for the poor and migrants, he is less dramatic in his speeches.

良谦逊、冷静的风格也塑造了他应对动荡美国政治的方式。许多保守派天主教徒反感方济各直言不讳地倡导贫困群体和移民权益，认为这牺牲了其他优先议题。尽管良十四世也为穷人和移民发声，但他的演讲风格更为克制。

“He’s a very disciplined, reserved person, and that makes his criticism that much harder to dismiss,” said David Gibson, director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University. “This isn’t, ‘There goes Pope Francis again.’ You can’t say that about Leo. This is a person who thinks, who deliberates and says what he means.”

“他是个非常自律、内敛的人，这让他的批评更难以被无视，”福特汉姆大学宗教与文化中心主任戴维·吉布森说，“这不是‘教宗方济各又来了’。对良十四世你不能这么说。他是一个深思熟虑、审慎斟酌、实话实说的人。”

Leo is showing that Catholic teaching does not fit neatly into American political boxes, said Ashley McGuire, a senior fellow at the Catholic Association, a small nonprofit that promotes conservative causes.

推动保守事业的小型非营利组织天主教协会高级研究员阿什利·麦奎尔称，良十四世正在表明，天主教教义无法简单套入美国的政治框架。

“This continues to vex the president, who is treating him like a political adversary,” she said. “If anything, however, that he is American and still defying American political agendas is demonstrating all the more that the papacy is a spiritual, not a political, office.”

“这持续困扰着总统，他把良十四世当成政治对手对待，”她说。“但恰恰因为教宗是美国人却仍敢于违抗美国政治议程，这更能证明教宗职位是属灵职位，而非政治职位。”

Leo has an 84 percent favorability rating among American Catholics, with overwhelmingly high support regardless of political party, according to a Pew Research Center survey from last year. Francis’ favorability rating was just as high the first year of his papacy, but by the time of his death it had dropped to 78 percent.

皮尤研究中心去年的调查显示，良十四世在美国天主教徒中的支持率高达84%，在两党中都获得了极高的支持率。方济各任教宗首年支持率同样极高，但去世时已降至78%。

At Mass at St. Lawrence Catholic Church in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Monday, Fernanda Moreira said she voted for President Trump in 2016 and again in 2024, but now had strong concerns.

周一，在俄亥俄州辛辛那提市圣劳伦斯天主教堂的弥撒上，费尔南达·莫雷拉表示，她2016年和2024年都投票给了特朗普，但如今深感担忧。

“It’s scary,” Ms. Moreira said. “I was for him very much, but I think he’s going in the wrong direction. It’s sad because he’s done so much that is good.”

“这很可怕，”莫雷拉说，“我以前非常支持他，但我觉得他现在走错了方向。很遗憾，因为他做过很多好事。”

Theresa Thien said she voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 because she was tired of career politicians, but after his first four years he lost her support. Now Ms. Thien believes that the president is in a “downward spiral.”

特蕾莎·廷表示，2016年她因厌倦职业政客而投票给特朗普，但在他首个四年任期后便不再支持他。如今，廷认为总统正处于“恶性循环”状态。

“What kind of leader preaches Christ and Christian behavior and threatens to annihilate a population?” asked Ms. Thien, a lifelong Catholic, referring to Mr. Trump’s recent comments about Iran. “Where people say ‘He’s the best’ or ‘He’s appointed by God,’ I don’t know — I have a hard time with that. He threatened the pope.”

“一边宣扬基督和基督徒行为，一边威胁要灭绝一个民族，这算什么样的领导人？”终身信奉天主教的廷谈及特朗普近期关于伊朗的言论时质问道。“当人们说‘他是最棒的’或‘他是上帝选中的’，我实在难以认同。他还威胁教宗。”

At least one conservative Catholic — perhaps the most prominent one — did not seem to object to the president’s outburst.

不过，至少有一名保守派天主教徒——或许是最有影响力的一位——似乎并不反对总统的过激言论。

Leo should “stick to matters of, you know, what’s going on in the Catholic Church,” Vice President JD Vance, who converted to Catholicism in 2019, said on Monday night on Fox News.

2019年皈依天主教的副总统万斯周一晚间在福克斯新闻频道表示，良应该“专注于天主教会内部事务”。

War in the Middle East has upended the world economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, warning in a report that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession.

国际货币基金组织周二表示，中东战争已颠覆了世界经济，并在一份报告中警告称，石油市场遭受的破坏可能会拖累经济增长、加剧通胀，增加全球经济陷入衰退的风险。

The sober message came after the global economy had largely weathered a pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and soaring inflation without tipping into a recession. But President Trump’s decision to initiate a war in Iran has stopped the world economy in its tracks.

这一严峻的判断出炉前，全球经济挺过了疫情、俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争以及通胀飙升，并未陷入衰退。但特朗普总统对伊朗开战的决定使全球经济骤然停滞。

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. sharply downgraded its growth forecasts, exposing the economic fallout from a geopolitical crisis that has roiled energy prices and injected a new bout of uncertainty into the global economy.

在最新一期的《世界经济展望》中，国际货币基金组织大幅下调了增长预期，凸显出这场地缘政治危机对经济的冲击——能源价格剧烈波动，并给全球经济注入新一轮不确定性。

“The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in the report. “The war interrupted what had been a steady growth trajectory.”

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙在报告中写道：“中东战争爆发后，全球前景骤然黯淡。战争打断了原本稳定的增长轨迹。”

The I.M.F. said that even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done. In that best-case scenario, the fund expects global growth to fall to 3.1 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025. That is down from the 3.3 percent that the fund projected in January. It is also lower than the 3.4 percent growth that it was prepared to project before the war broke out and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were halted.

国际货币基金组织表示，即便战争持续时间不长，全球经济所受的损害也已经形成。在最乐观情形下，该机构预计今年全球经济增速将从2025年的3.4%降至3.1%，低于其今年1月预测的3.3%，战争爆发、霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断之前原本准备给出的预测则为3.4%。

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙写道：“战争打断了原本稳定的增长轨迹。”

The forecasts were released as global policymakers arrived in Washington for the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. Just a few weeks ago, the gathering was expected to focus on other disruptions, including trade tensions, artificial intelligence and international fiscal imbalances. It will instead be dominated by the economic fallout of the war.

预测发布之际，全球政策制定者正齐聚华盛顿，参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行的春季会议。就在几周前，此次会议原本预计将聚焦贸易紧张局势、人工智能以及国际财政失衡等问题，但如今议题将被战争带来的经济冲击主导。

As the meetings started on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the I.M.F. and the World Bank to refocus on their core missions — financial stability for the fund and pulling people out of poverty for the bank. Mr. Bessent praised the bank for shifting away from its ambitions to combat climate change and becoming a proponent of nuclear energy.

周二会议开幕时，美国财长斯科特·贝森特敦促国际货币基金组织和世界银行重新聚焦其核心使命——后者的职责是维护金融稳定，前者则应致力于减少贫困。贝森特还称赞世界银行正在从应对气候变化的雄心转向支持核能发展。

However, Mr. Bessent suggested that the I.M.F. needed to “lead by example” and “get rid of their golf course out in Maryland” and instead focus more on global imbalances.

不过，贝森特建议国际货币基金组织需要“以身作则”，“卖掉他们在马里兰州的高尔夫球场”，转而更多地关注全球失衡问题。

“This slow motion buildup of global imbalances after a lack of sustainable growth is the biggest risk,” Mr. Bessent said at an Institute of International Finance gathering on the sidelines of the spring meetings. “The world cannot take a China with a trillion dollar trade surplus.”

“在缺乏可持续增长的情况下，全球失衡的缓慢积累是最大的风险，”贝森特在春季会议期间国际金融协会的一场活动上表示，“世界无法承受一个拥有万亿美元贸易顺差的中国。”

The Treasury secretary made no mention of the war in Iran and its impact on the global economy, which has alarmed the I.M.F. and policymakers around the world.

这位财政部长没有提及伊朗战争及其对全球经济的影响，而这一问题已令国际货币基金组织和世界各国政策制定者深感担忧。

The conflict has sent oil prices above $100 per barrel. Natural gas has spiked more than 80 percent, and surging fertilizer prices are raising costs for farmers.

这场冲突已将油价推高至每桶100美元以上。天然气价格飙升超过80%，不断上涨的化肥价格也在抬高农民的成本。

The I.M.F. laid out several scenarios for how the war could play out economically. The most severe case involves disruptions to energy markets that extend into next year. Such a scenario would drag global growth down to 2 percent and send inflation up to 6 percent.

国际货币基金组织列出了战争可能引发的几种经济情景。最严重的情况是能源市场的扰乱持续到明年。这将把全球经济增速拖至2%，并将通胀推高至6%。

“The downside risks are tremendous,” Mr. Gourinchas said.

“下行风险非常巨大，”古兰沙表示。

Even a more optimistic case, in which the war concludes expeditiously and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, will leave behind economic carnage. The I.M.F. estimates that oil prices will increase by 21.4 percent this year and that energy commodity prices, which the fund had said would decline in 2026, will instead rise by 19 percent this year.

即便是在较为乐观的情形下——战争迅速结束、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放——经济仍将遭受重创。国际货币基金组织预计，今年油价将上涨21.4%，而原本预计在2026年下降的能源大宗商品价格今年反而将上涨19%。

Those higher commodity prices will flow through the economy, the I.M.F. warned. That would raise costs of energy-intensive goods such as steel and cement, erode the purchasing power of consumers and most likely require central banks to raise interest rates.

国际货币基金组织警告称，大宗商品价格的上涨将传导至整个经济。这将推高钢铁、水泥等能源密集型产品的成本，削弱消费者的购买力，并很可能迫各国使央行加息。

The I.M.F. expects the economic impact of the war to be more damaging to low-income and developing economies and Persian Gulf energy exporters that are facing infrastructure damage and export disruptions from the war.

国际货币基金组织预计，这场战争对低收入和发展中经济体以及波斯湾能源出口国的冲击将更为严重，这些国家因为战事而正面临基础设施受损和出口受阻的问题。

Advanced economies, such as the United States, are expected to fare better but not emerge unscathed. The I.M.F. now projects U.S. output to rise to 2.3 percent in 2026. That is an increase from 2.1 percent growth in 2025, but slower than the 2.4 percent growth that the fund projected in January.

像美国这样的发达经济体预计表现会好一些，但也不可能毫发无损。国际货币基金组织目前预计2026年美国的经济产出将增长2.3%。这高于2025年的2.1%，但低于该组织在今年1月预测的2.4%。

The White House projected 3.5 percent gross domestic product growth in 2026 in its latest budget forecasts.

白宫在其最新的预算预测中估计，2026年美国国内生产总值将增长3.5%。

In the United States, the most apparent economic vulnerability appears to be the hit that consumers are feeling from higher gas prices. The national average for a gallon of gas was $4.11 as of Tuesday.

在美国，最明显的经济软肋似乎是汽油价格上涨对消费者造成的冲击。截至周二，全国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.11美元。

According to the I.M.F. report, the biggest winner from the war thus far appears to be Russia, whose economy is now expected to grow 1.1 percent in 2026, up from 1 percent in 2025.

根据国际货币基金组织的报告，到目前为止，这场战争中最大的赢家似乎是俄罗斯，其经济预计将在2026年增长1.1%，高于2025年的1%。

Higher oil prices and the temporary lifting of U.S. sanctions on some Russian oil sales brightened the outlook for its economy.

油价上涨以及美国暂时解除对俄罗斯部分石油销售的制裁对它的经济前景起到了提振效果。

Addressing an audience of just a few hundred people, Peter Magyar, a charismatic but largely unknown lawyer, swayed atop an unsteady flatbed truck two years ago and issued a preposterous command: “Take back our country, step by step, brick by brick.”

两年前，魅力十足但当时几乎无人知晓的律师彼得·毛焦尔站在一辆摇摇晃晃的平板卡车上，对着区区几百人的听众发表演讲，他发出了一个看似荒谬的命令：“一步一步、一砖一瓦，夺回我们的国家。”

The childhood home of Hungary’s seemingly invincible prime minister, Viktor Orban, was just down the road, and the idea that Europe’s longest-serving head of government would allow a jumped-up attorney to tear down his laboriously constructed and very sturdy political movement — a vote-winning machine called Fidesz — seemed absurd.

当时，匈牙利看似不可战胜的总理维克托·欧尔班的童年故居就在这条街的不远处。欧洲在任时间最长的政府首脑竟然会允许一个自命不凡的律师去拆毁他费尽心血、坚不可摧的政治机器——那个名叫青民盟(Fidesz)的选票收割机，这听起来简直荒唐。

Now, having demolished Mr. Orban’s governing party in a general election on Sunday, Mr. Magyar, 45, stands at the pinnacle of power in Hungary. He was hoisted there by a two-thirds majority of seats in Parliament and a share of the popular vote larger than a single party has received since the fall of Communism nearly four decades ago.

如今，现年45岁的毛焦尔在周日议会选举中亲手摧毁了欧尔班的执政党。他以议会三分之二多数席位和自共产党垮台近四十年来单一政党从未达到过的最高得票率登上了匈牙利的权力巅峰。

Mr. Magyar will not formally take over from Mr. Orban as prime minister until Parliament resumes for its first post-election session, which must happen before May 12. But given that nearly 80 percent of registered voters cast ballots, a record turnout, he has already assumed the role of Hungary’s undisputed leader.

毛焦尔要等到议会举行首次选举后会议（必须在5月12日前）才会正式从欧尔班手中接过总理职位。但鉴于近80%的登记选民参与、投票率创下纪录，他实际上已经成为了匈牙利无可争议的领导人。

But how is Mr. Magyar going to use his power and to what end?

但毛焦尔打算如何运用手中的权力？又想达到什么样的目的？

3月，毛焦尔参加一场反对派的集会。

A priority, Mr. Magyar told cheering supporters on Sunday night, is to pull down the “puppets and pillars” of Mr. Orban’s system: the Fidesz-aligned heads of the Supreme Court, of the prosecution service and of various nominally independent agencies overseeing the media, the judiciary, the state budget and the policing of anti-competition laws.

周日晚，毛焦尔对欢呼的支持者说，他的首要任务是拆除欧尔班体系的“傀儡和支柱”：那些与青民盟结盟的最高法院院长、检察长，以及负责监管媒体、司法、国家预算和反垄断执法的所谓独立机构负责人。

“They should leave of their own volition rather than wait for us to fire them because we will fire them,” he warned. “They occupied our country.” Dismissing them could prove difficult; some officials serve for fixed terms, and Parliament has limited ability to unilaterally force them out.

“他们最好主动离开，而不是等着我们把他们炒掉——因为我们一定会炒掉他们，”他警告道，“他们占领了我们的国家。”要解雇这些人可能并不容易；有些官员有固定任期，议会在单方面罢免他们的权力上也受到限制。

On Monday, at a three-hour news conference, he said he wanted Hungary’s president, Tamas Sulyok, gone, too. The presidency is a mostly ceremonial job, so getting rid of Mr. Sulyok would be less a power grab than a symbolic strike against Mr. Orban’s old order.

周一，在一场长达三小时的新闻发布会上，他表示希望现任总统道马什·舒尤克也下台。总统职位基本是礼仪性的，因此罢免舒尤克与其说是权力争夺，不如说是对欧尔班旧秩序的一次象征性打击。

“The regime has fallen, and the Hungarian people have voted for a change of system,” Mr. Magyar said in Budapest, the Hungarian capital. “That is the crux of the matter, in my view. Let us start from there.”

“旧政权已经倒台，匈牙利人民投票选择了体制变革，”毛焦尔在首都布达佩斯说，“在我看来，这就是问题的核心。我们就从这里入手。”

Mr. Magyar said Hungary would rejoin the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, a wing of the European Union that investigates financial crimes, in a sharp break with Mr. Orban’s government, which often portrayed E.U. efforts to enforce rules that Hungary had agreed to abide by as an intolerable affront to Hungarian sovereignty. Rejoining the office would give European investigators the power to examine fraud cases involving the previous administration, including some that could touch Mr. Orban’s family, notably his son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, a wealthy tycoon.

毛焦尔宣布，匈牙利将重新加入欧盟下属的欧洲公共检察官办公室，这与欧尔班政府形成鲜明对比。后者曾经常把欧盟要求匈牙利遵守其同意的规则描绘成对匈牙利主权的不可容忍的冒犯。重新加入该机构将赋予欧洲调查人员审查前政府腐败案件的权力，其中一些案件可能牵涉欧尔班的家族，尤其是他的女婿、富豪商人伊什特万·蒂博尔茨。

Mr. Magyar makes for an unlikely scourge of the establishment. He was born into a conservative Budapest family and raised in a wealthy district on the eastern side of the Danube River. His relatives include lawyers and judges and a former president, Ferenc Madl, whose tenure in office from 2000 to 2005 overlapped with part of Mr. Orban’s first term as prime minister.

毛焦尔看上去并不像是会成为建制派天敌的人。他出生于布达佩斯一个保守家庭，在多瑙河东岸富裕区长大。他的亲属中不乏律师、法官，还有前总统费伦茨·马德尔，后者在2000年至2005年任职期间与欧尔班的首个总理任期部分重叠。

毛焦尔的着装有着鲜明的预科生风格。

Mr. Magyar’s uniform for most of his appearances on the campaign trail — white shirt, slim-fit jeans or slacks — had a decidedly preppy look, not that of a rebel working to topple the government.

毛焦尔在竞选期间的大多数亮相中都穿着白衬衫、修身牛仔裤或休闲裤，一副典型的预科生打扮，完全不像要推翻政府的叛逆者。

Sandor Laszlo Esik, a lawyer and conservative commentator who was a student with Mr. Magyar in the early 2000s at Pazmany Peter Catholic University in Budapest, remembers a different vibe. “The guy had a total disco-rat look back then, with spiky, gelled-back hair, that ’90s German techno hairstyle,” he recalled.

律师兼保守派评论员山多尔·拉斯洛·埃希克曾与毛焦尔在2000年代初一同就读于布达佩斯的帕兹马尼·彼得天主教大学。他回忆说，那时候的毛焦尔完全是另一种风格：“那家伙当时一副地下狂欢青年的打扮，头发打满发胶往后梳成刺猬头，就是那种90年代德国科技舞曲风的发型。”

Back then, Mr. Magyar attended events organized by Fidesz, Mr. Esik said. The Catholic university, he added, served as a “seedbed of young Fidesz talent.” Its students at the time also included Gergely Gulyas, who later became Mr. Orban’s chief of staff, and Mate Kocsis, who became a prominent Fidesz lawmaker.

埃希克说，当时毛焦尔会参加青民盟组织的活动。那所天主教大学是“青民盟年轻人才的温床”。当时的学生中还包括后来成为欧尔班幕僚长的盖尔盖伊·古亚什，以及后来成为青民盟重要议员的马泰·科奇什。

They were all studying law, like Mr. Orban, now 62, had done at another Budapest university more than a decade earlier.

和欧尔班一样，他们当时都在读法律。现年62岁的欧尔班比他们早十多年曾在布达佩斯的另一所大学读法律。

For most of his career as a corporate lawyer, Mr. Magyar remained close to people in Mr. Orban’s circle.

在担任公司律师的职业生涯大部分时间里，毛焦尔一直与欧尔班圈子内的人保持密切联系。

Mr. Magyar worked in a senior position at a state-owned bank overseen by Fidesz loyalists and as a diplomat in Brussels. He married Judit Varga, who later became Mr. Orban’s justice minister, before they announced their divorce in 2023.

他曾在青民盟忠实拥护者掌控的国有银行担任高管，还曾在布鲁塞尔担任外交官。他娶了后来成为欧尔班的司法部长的尤迪特·瓦尔加，两人于2023年宣布离婚。

Mr. Magyar’s political transition began in 2024 after an independent media outlet, 444, revealed that Mr. Sulyok’s predecessor as president, Katalin Novak, had pardoned a man who had been convicted of helping to cover up sexual abuse in a state-run children’s home.

毛焦尔的政坛转型始于2024年。当时独立媒体《444》曝光，前总统卡塔琳·诺瓦克曾赦免一名被判参与掩盖国有儿童福利院性侵案的男子。

Mr. Magyar’s ex-wife, Ms. Varga, had countersigned the pardon order.

毛焦尔的前妻瓦尔加正是那份赦免令的副署人。

The news stirred outrage among Fidesz supporters who liked the party for its promises to protect children and family values. The president resigned, and Ms. Varga was forced to quit.

这则新闻在青民盟支持者中引发众怒，因为该党一向标榜保护儿童和家庭价值观。总统随后辞职，瓦尔加也被迫辞职。

On the day of Ms. Varga’s resignation, Mr. Magyar announced in a Facebook post that he was breaking with Fidesz and leaving the state-owned company where he worked.

在瓦尔加辞职当天，毛焦尔在Facebook发帖宣布与青民盟决裂，并辞去国有公司的工作。

A few months later he took over the leadership of an existing but inactive political party called Tisza, which in June 2024 stunned the Fidesz establishment by winning nearly 30 percent of the vote in elections for the European Parliament.

几个月后，他接手了一个已经停止活动的政党——蒂萨党。2024年6月，该党在欧洲议会选举中获得近30%的选票，震惊了青民盟建制派。

2024年，在维克托·欧尔班的司法部长尤迪特·瓦尔加被迫辞职后，毛焦尔组织了一场抗议活动。

For some, Mr. Magyar seemed like a youthful version of Mr. Orban, who began his political life as a teenage Communist activist before his rise to prominence in the 1980s as a vocal critic of the regime.

对一些人来说，毛焦尔就像年轻的欧尔班——后者年轻时曾是共产主义活动分子，后来在1980年代以体制批评者的身份声名鹊起。

One big difference between them involves religion. Mr. Magyar has long been a believer, unlike Mr. Orban, who was an atheist until he tilted to the right.

两人之间一个显著差异在于宗教信仰。毛焦尔长期以来都是信徒，而欧尔班在右转之前一直是无神论者。

During the campaign Mr. Magyar wore a wristband with a small wooden cross attached. His rallies in small towns often had the feel of religious revival meetings, with Mr. Magyar asking attendees to join and raise their hands in celebration. “God bless Hungary, God bless every Hungarian,” he said on election night. Mr. Magyar’s conservative side has led to some tensions with Mr. Orban’s most fervent foes — progressive activists and journalists in Budapest.

竞选期间，毛焦尔佩戴了一条系着小木十字架的手链。他在小城镇举办的集会常常带有宗教复兴会的氛围，毛焦尔会邀请与会者一起举手庆祝。选举之夜他说：“上帝保佑匈牙利，上帝保佑每一位匈牙利人。”毛焦尔的保守立场也让他与欧尔班最激烈的反对者——布达佩斯的进步派活动家和记者——产生了摩擦。

They were upset that he stayed silent last year when the government banned an annual Pride march in Budapest. The event had been held for years without incident. Mr. Orban’s party then rushed legislation through Parliament to make it illegal to hold gatherings like Pride parades.

去年政府禁止在布达佩斯举行一年一度的骄傲游行时，他保持沉默，这让进步派感到不满。这项举办了多年的活动一直没有生过事端，而欧尔班的政党迅速通过立法将此类骄傲游行定为非法。

The ban put Mr. Magyar in a difficult position. Progressives in Budapest wanted him to take a stand, but so did Fidesz, which was looking for ways to portray him as a closet liberal. Mr. Magyar avoided the trap by saying nothing.

这项禁令让毛焦尔陷入两难。布达佩斯的进步派希望他表态，青民盟则希望把他描绘成乔装打扮的自由派。毛焦尔选择了沉默，避开了陷阱。

Now able to speak more freely since his election victory, Mr. Magyar this week expressed his support of the freedom of assembly, gay rights and other liberties circumscribed by the previous government.

如今选举获胜后可以更自由地发言，本周毛焦尔表达了对集会自由、同性恋权利以及此前政府限制的其他自由权利的支持。

“In Hungary, everyone has the right to freedom of assembly. Period,” he said on Monday.

“在匈牙利，每个人都有集会自由。就这么简单，”他在周一说道。