When China declared on Monday that the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was “dangerous and irresponsible,” it was a brief window into President Trump’s latest challenge: how to keep the Iran conflict from upending an emerging détente with China.

周一，中国公开表态称美国封锁伊朗石油经霍尔木兹海峡外运的行为“危险且不负责任”，这一言论短暂揭示了特朗普总统面临的最新挑战：如何防止美伊冲突破坏与中国之间正在形成的缓和态势。

Mr. Trump is expected to land in Beijing in four weeks, in what was imagined as a carefully planned, highly orchestrated effort to recast the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

特朗普预计四周后抵达北京，此行原本被设想为一场精心策划、高度统筹的行程，旨在重塑全球两大经济体间的关系。

The president has already delayed the trip once, and White House officials insist there is no discussion of putting it off again, even if the United States is still choking off Iranian oil exports. Ninety percent of those exports — more than 1.3 million barrels per day — were purchased by China before the American and Israeli attack began on Feb. 28.

总统已推迟过一次访华行程，白宫官员坚称即便美国仍在切断伊朗石油出口，也不会再讨论推迟访华事宜。在2月28日美以发动袭击前，伊朗90%的石油出口——日均超130万桶——均由中国购买。

At first the Chinese were relatively quiet about the military action, knowing that the shipments already at sea and an impressive stockpile of emergency reserves of oil would likely tide them through. They ignored Mr. Trump’s demand that China send warships to keep the strait open. They produced standard-issue calls for both sides to stand down.

起初，中国对此次军事行动保持相对沉默，因为中方清楚海上已在途的油轮与充足的应急石油储备足以助其渡过难关。中方无视特朗普要求中国派遣军舰维护海峡畅通，仅按惯例呼吁双方保持克制。

But once the blockade began on Monday, and facing the prospect that Chinese-flagged cargo ships, some manned by Chinese crews, could be turned away by the U.S. Navy, the tone shifted.

但随着周一美国封锁正式启动，且悬挂中国国旗、部分由中国船员驾驶的货轮可能遭美军拦截的前景，中方的态度发生转变。

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, made his first public comments on the war on Tuesday, saying that the world could not risk reverting “to the law of the jungle.” He never mentioned the United States or Mr. Trump. But he did not need to, adding during a meeting with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi that “maintaining the authority of international rule of law means not using it when it suits us and abandoning it when it doesn’t.”

中国领导人习近平周二首次就这场战争公开发声，指出世界绝不能重回“丛林法则”。他未直接提及美国或特朗普，但在与阿布扎比王储会晤时补充道：“维护国际法治权威，不能‘合则用、不合则弃’。”

It was a clear reference to Mr. Trump, who in January told The New York Times that “I don’t need international law,” adding, “I’m not looking to hurt people.” He made it clear that he would be the arbiter of when international legal constraints applied to his actions.

这番言论明显是指特朗普，今年1月，特朗普曾对《纽约时报》表示“我不需要国际法”，并补充“我无意伤害他人”，他明确表示，自己将是判断国际法律约束是否适用于其行动的唯一裁决者。

China’s foreign ministry, playing its accustomed role in signaling between Washington and Beijing, took a tougher line, accusing the United States of a “targeted blockade” that “will only aggravate confrontation, escalate tension, under the already fragile cease-fire, and further jeopardize safe passage thorough the Strait of Hormuz.”

中国外交部扮演着中美间信号传递的惯常角色，该部门采取更强硬立场，指责美国实施“定向封锁”，称其“只会激化矛盾，加剧局势紧张，破坏本就脆弱的停火局面，并进一步冲击海峡通行安全”。

For his part, Mr. Trump has largely refrained from uttering much criticism, even when it became clear last week that U.S. intelligence agencies had obtained information that China might have sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles to the Iranians, for use in the conflict. The intelligence was not definitive, and there is no evidence that Chinese missiles have been used against U.S. or Israeli forces.

而特朗普本人基本未发表过多批评言论，即便上周有明确消息显示，美国情报机构获取信息称中国可能向伊朗运送一批肩扛式导弹用于冲突。该情报并非确凿证据，也无迹象表明中国导弹已被用于打击美以军队。

“I doubt they would do that," Mr. Trump said. He quickly added that “if we catch them doing that, they get a 50 percent tariff,” employing his go-to threat against any country defying his will. But he has dropped the subject, perhaps recognizing that any threat of new tariffs could derail his hopes of announcing a trade deal, the lowest-hanging fruit in U.S.-China diplomacy.

“我怀疑他们会这么做，”特朗普表示，随即补充说，“如果我们抓到他们这么做，就要对他们征收50%的关税”——这是他对抗拒其意志的国家惯用的威胁手段。但他此后未再提及此事，或许是意识到任何新的关税威胁都可能打乱他宣布达成贸易协议的计划，而这正是中美外交中最容易达成的成果。

“President Trump has created the circumstance where two of his biggest goals are in direct conflict,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and the chairman of the Asia Group, which he founded.

“特朗普总统制造了一种局面，使他的两大核心目标直接冲突，”曾任拜登政府副国务卿的库尔特·坎贝尔指出，他现任由其创立的亚洲集团董事长。

“One is to monitor and control all cargo coming through the strait, which includes China’s,” he said. “And the other is his desire for a manifestly positive visit to Beijing.”

“一个目标是监控并管控经海峡的所有货物，包括中国船只；另一个则是希望对北京进行一次能取得明显积极成果的访问。”

Mr. Trump’s ambassador to China, David Perdue, was in the Oval Office late on Tuesday, discussing the upcoming visit. National security officials said that before the Iran conflict broke out, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had negotiated the outlines of economic initiatives the two countries would announce.

周二晚些时候，特朗普的驻华大使庞德伟(David Perdue)现身椭圆形办公室，商讨即将到来的访华行程。国家安全官员表示，美伊冲突爆发前，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特已就两国即将宣布的经济举措框架进行了磋商。

Far less progress has been made on the major security issues, according to U.S. officials, including how to talk about the future of Taiwan, or China’s fast-growing nuclear arsenal, or its military buildup in the South China Sea and the confrontations it has sparked with the Philippines.

据美国官员透露，双方在重大安全议题上的进展要少得多，包括如何探讨台湾的未来、中国快速扩张的核武库，其在南海的军事扩张以及由此引发的与菲律宾的对峙。

With a month to go before Mr. Trump lands in Beijing, it is still unclear how the two leaders will structure a conversation about the blockade — if it is still in force — or about the display of U.S. military power that began with the seizure of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, then proceeded with Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran.

距离特朗普抵达北京还有一个月，目前仍不清楚若封锁仍在持续，两国领导人将如何安排相关对话，无论是关于封锁本身，还是始于抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗、继而升级为特朗普袭击伊朗的美国军事力量展示。

But there is considerable evidence the Chinese military is intently focused on how the United States pulled off both attacks. Chinese officials appear concerned about the speed at which the Iranian leadership was decapitated in the opening hours of the war.

但大量迹象显示，中国军方正密切关注美国如何实施这两次军事打击。中国官员似乎对战争初期伊朗领导层被迅速斩首的速度感到担忧。

“There is a lot of speculation about what can break the U.S.-China détente, and undermine the summit,” said Rush Doshi, an assistant professor at Georgetown University and former adviser to Mr. Biden on China. “It hasn’t been issues like A.I. chips, or even rare earths,” he added, referring to two areas of intense competition between the two nations. “But it could be Iran.”

“关于什么因素可能打破中美缓和态势、破坏峰会，外界有诸多猜测，”乔治城大学助理教授、曾任拜登政府中国问题顾问的杜如松(Rush Doshi)表示。“并不是人工智能芯片、甚至稀土等议题，”他补充说，指的是中美两国竞争激烈的两个领域。“而是伊朗问题。”

The blockade, Mr. Doshi said, could “create awkward dynamics” if there is a confrontation between the Navy and commercial Chinese ships, though both have seemed eager to avoid that. “And the second is reports that China is considering sending lethal assistance to help to Iran,” which senior congressional and intelligence officials appear to take seriously.

杜如松称，若美军与中国商船发生对峙，封锁将“制造尴尬局面”，尽管双方似乎都极力避免这种情况。“第二个风险则是有关中国考虑向伊朗提供危险援助的报道”，美国国会与情报部门高级官员似乎对此高度重视。

As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home.

随着中国庞大的贸易顺差加剧全球紧张局势，北京出台了全面新规，对那些因国内政治压力而放弃中国供应商的外国企业展开调查并予以处罚。

Foreign business groups expressed strong concern about the vaguely worded rules, which took effect when Premier Li Qiang signed them on April 7. Analysts warned that the regulations could make it harder for foreign companies to divest from joint ventures in China or shift orders to overseas suppliers.

外国商业团体对措辞模糊的新规表达强烈担忧。4月7日，国务院总理李强签署发布后，这些规定即刻生效。分析人士警告，新规可能让外国企业更难剥离在华合资企业资产，或将订单转移至海外供应商。

The new regulations are part of Beijing’s broader effort to counter what it sees as rising protectionism in the West, driven by a surge in Chinese exports and growing concerns about trade imbalances. China’s exports exceeded imports by almost $1.2 trillion last year, and the country notched another large surplus in the first quarter.

新规是北京方面更广泛努力的一部分，旨在应对其认为西方日益加剧的保护主义——这种保护主义是由中国出口激增以及对贸易失衡的日益担忧所驱动的。去年中国贸易顺差近1.2万亿美元，今年第一季度再录得巨额顺差。

China’s manufacturing dominance spans nearly every industry. But companies that once flocked to its factories for low-cost, high-quality production are now looking to reduce their dependence, pressured by their governments not to abandon local manufacturing and the perception that doing business in China is becoming more challenging. Foreign automakers have closed factories as the Chinese market slows.

中国制造业优势几乎覆盖所有行业。但那些曾蜂拥至中国工厂寻求低成本、高质量生产的企业，如今正寻求降低对华依赖。它们一方面受本国政府要求、不愿放弃本土制造业，另一方面也认为在华经营难度日益加大。随着中国市场放缓，多家外国车企已关闭在华工厂。

The 18-point regulations, described in state media as an effort to “prevent security risks in industrial and supply chains,” supplement the already formidable authority afforded to Chinese regulators to investigate multinational corporations for moving supply chains out of China.

这套规定共18条，被官方媒体称为“防范产业链供应链安全风险”的举措，进一步强化了中国监管机构已有的强大权限，可对将供应链迁出中国的跨国企业展开调查。

Under the new rules, regulators can question employees and examine corporate records during investigations. The regulations also allow authorities to bar companies and individuals from leaving China if they are suspected of moving supply chains elsewhere under foreign pressure.

根据新规，监管机构调查期间可询问企业员工、查阅公司记录。该规定还允许当局禁止涉嫌在外国压力下将供应链转移至其他地方的公司和个人离境。

去年，越南一家中资家具厂皮革裁剪车间的工人。

“The threat that individual employees could be punished through exit bans is concerning, given the lack of a clear and transparent legal process,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement.

“鉴于缺乏清晰透明的法律程序，员工个体可能因限出境受罚的威胁令人担忧，”中国欧盟商会主彦辞(Jens Eskelund)在声明中表示。

The State Council, China’s cabinet, justified the measures as necessary to protect the country’s economic stability and national security — a rationale it has previously used to expand its ability to pressure companies. China has also adopted sweeping state secrets laws to prevent information from leaving the country.

中国国务院称，这是维护国家经济稳定与国家安全的必要之举——此前北京也曾以此为由，扩大对企业的施压力度。中国还出台了全面的国家保密法，防止信息外流。

The new rules build upon Beijing’s existing efforts to prevent Western companies from avoiding goods from northwest China’s Xinjiang region, where researchers have cited evidence of forced labor, mass arrests and confinement to re-education camps targeting the region’s predominantly Muslim Uyghur population.

此前，为阻止西方企业抵制中国西北部新疆地区产品，北京已采取相关行动，新规正是在此基础上推出。研究人员曾援引证据指出，新疆存在针对以穆斯林为主的维吾尔人口的强迫劳动、大规模逮捕及拘禁于再教育营地等行为。

China’s Ministry of Commerce investigated PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, in 2024, accusing it of “discriminatory measures” against products from Xinjiang, which produces a fifth of the world’s cotton.

2024年，中国商务部曾调查卡尔文·克莱恩与汤米·希尔费格的母公司PVH公司，指控其对新疆产品采取“歧视性措施”。新疆棉花产量占全球五分之一。

Michael Hart, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said that foreign businesses had not been consulted in drafting the latest rules and warned that the accumulation of legal threats against foreign businesses in China could backfire.

中国美国商会会长何迈可(Michael Hart)表示，中国在起草最新规定时未征询外国企业意见，并警告，针对在华外企的法律风险不断累积，可能适得其反。

“There needs to be more clarity, or this could cause foreign players to de-risk further from China,” he wrote in a text message.

“需要有更明确的说明，否则可能导致外国企业进一步降低对华风险敞口，” 他在短信中写道。

Evan Smith, chief executive of Altana, a New York-based supply chain mapping company, said that China’s global network of ports and port-management software gives Chinese officials detailed insight into multinationals’ supply chains, allowing them to detect when companies shift to suppliers elsewhere.

纽约供应链地图公司Altana首席执行官埃文·史密斯称，中国遍布全球的港口网络及港口管理软件，让中国官员能详细掌握跨国企业供应链动态，及时察觉企业转向其他地区供应商的动向。

A severe housing downturn has left China’s economy heavily dependent on a trade surplus that has shattered previous world records, even as President Trump levied tariffs aimed at eroding that advantage.

中国房地产市场深度低迷使得经济高度依赖屡破世界纪录的贸易顺差，即便特朗普总统加征关税试图削弱这一优势，情况也未改变。

今年中国汽车销量下降了17%，这促使中国汽车制造商进一步转向全球市场。

On Tuesday, China’s General Administration of Customs announced that the country’s trade surplus narrowed slightly to $265 billion in the first three months of this year, as the cost of oil imports rose.

周二，中国海关总署公布，受石油进口成本上涨影响，今年一季度贸易顺差小幅收窄至2650亿美元。

Car sales in China have plunged 17.4 percent so far this year, prompting automakers to turn outward . Car exports soared 50.3 percent in the first three months of this year. The export surge is raising concerns about job losses in the West and in developing countries like Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil.

今年以来，中国汽车销量暴跌 17.4%，促使汽车制造商将目光投向海外。一季度汽车出口激增50.3%。出口猛增引发西方及马来西亚、墨西哥、巴西等发展中国家对就业岗位流失的担忧。

China’s new supply chain rules come a year after it imposed strict export controls on rare earth metals and rare earth magnets, which are essential to a wide range of industries.

中国出台新供应链规定前一年，曾对稀土及稀土磁体实施严格出口管制，这些材料是众多行业的关键原料。

Initially aimed at the United States in response to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the restrictions have also curtailed shipments to the European Union over the past year, reflecting China’s opposition to European tariffs on imported Chinese electric cars.

管制最初针对美国，回应特朗普的“解放日”关税；过去一年，限制范围也扩大至欧盟，这反映了中国对欧盟对进口中国电动汽车征收关税的反对立场。

上个月，在中国东部山东省烟台市的一个码头，工人们正将尿素肥料装载到货轮上准备出口。

In a report released Tuesday, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China strongly criticized China’s growing use of export controls, particularly on rare earths. A survey found that the restrictions have affected European companies across a wide range of industries, although not in food, beverages, retail and education.

在周二发布的一份报告中，中国欧盟商会强烈批评中国日益频繁使用出口管制，尤其是稀土管制。调查显示，这些限制影响了欧洲众多行业企业，但食品、饮料、零售及教育行业除外。

“There is now a recognition that China’s emerging export-control regime poses a long-term business risk, given that the ability to export a particular item could be taken away at any point based on political rather than security factors,” the report said.

“如今各方意识到，中国正在成型的出口管制体系构成长期商业风险，特定商品的出口权可能随时因政治因素、而非安全因素被剥夺，” 报告称。

The issuance of new supply chain regulations comes as thousands of auto executives and engineers prepare to gather in Beijing next week for the city’s auto show.

新供应链法规出台之际，数千名汽车行业高管与工程师正准备于下周齐聚北京，参加当地车展。

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, said on Tuesday that the world cannot risk reverting “to the law of the jungle,” a thinly veiled criticism of the United States, in his most direct public comments on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

中国领导人习近平周二表示，不能让世界倒回“丛林法则”，这是他就美以对伊战争最直接的公开评论，措辞中隐晦地批评了美国。

“Maintaining the authority of international rule of law means not using it when it suits us and abandoning it when it doesn’t,” he said in a meeting with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi in Beijing.

“维护国际法治权威，不能‘合则用、不合则弃’，”他在北京会见阿布扎比王储时说道。

Mr. Xi’s remarks, in addition to meetings and calls held by senior Chinese officials in recent days, suggest that Beijing is playing a more active role in trying to build on the two-week cease-fire that the United States and Israel struck with Iran last week. China is also heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, where Iran has restricted shipping for weeks and where the United States has begun enforcing a blockade aimed at choking off Iranian oil income.

习近平的这番表态，加上中国高级官员近期所进行的一系列会晤与通话，表明中国正试图在巩固上周美以与伊朗达成的两周停火方面发挥更积极的作用。中国也高度依赖霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，而伊朗已在该海峡限制航运数周，美国则在此地开始实施旨在切断伊朗石油收入的封锁。

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, on Monday called on his counterpart in Pakistan to help “preserve the hard-won momentum” of talks it hosted over the weekend between the United States and Iran that failed to produce a peace agreement. During a meeting with the United Arab Emirates’ special envoy for China affairs, Mr. Wang also said that Beijing was pushing for a return to peace in the region.

中国外交部长王毅周一呼吁巴基斯坦外长协助“保持来之不易停火势头”，即上周末在巴基斯坦举行的美伊会谈，尽管该会谈未能达成和平协议。在会见阿联酋总统中国事务特使时，王毅还表示，北京正在推动该地区恢复和平安宁。

While China has condemned the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, it has also tried to maintain a neutral stance as it balances its partnership with Tehran and manages tensions with the United States. President Trump is set to visit Beijing in May, where he is expected to discuss extending a truce in the U.S.-China trade war.

尽管中国谴责了美以对伊战争，但在平衡与德黑兰的伙伴关系以及管控与美国的紧张关系之间，中国也试图保持中立立场。特朗普总统预计将于5月访问北京，届时可能讨论延长中美贸易战的停火协议。

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, said that as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has deepened, China has adopted a more active posture diplomatically. As much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped through the waterway.

上海外国语大学中东研究所丁隆教授表示，随着霍尔木兹海峡危机加深，中国在外交上采取了更为积极的姿态。中国高达40%的石油进口要经由该水道运输。

“Fundamentally it’s about the cessation of hostilities as soon as possible. This is the key,” he said. “It’s about giving peace talks a chance, and China is willing to play a greater role.”

“从根本上说，就是要尽快实现停火，这是关键，”他说。“就是要给和谈一个机会，而中国愿意发挥更大的作用。”

The United States and Iran traded proposals for a suspension of Iranian nuclear activities during weekend negotiations in Pakistan, but remain far apart on the length of any agreement, according to Iranian and U.S. officials.

据美伊两国官员透露，美伊双方在周末于巴基斯坦举行的谈判中，就暂停伊朗核活动交换了提案，但在协议期限问题上仍存在巨大分歧。

Iran said Monday that it could suspend uranium enrichment for up to five years — an offer the Trump administration rejected, insisting on 20 years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. Still, the discussions suggested that there may be a path to a peace deal, even as the U.S. military began its blockade of Iranian ports on Monday, threatening a nearly week-old cease-fire.

两名伊朗高级官员和一名美国官员表示，伊朗周一提出可暂停铀浓缩活动最长五年，但特朗普政府拒绝了这一提议，坚持要求期限为20年。尽管如此，这些讨论仍表明，即便美国军方周一已开始封锁伊朗港口，威胁到持续近一周的停火协议，但达成和平协议的途径或许依然存在。

Officials said they were discussing a second round of face-to-face talks, but provided no details.

官员们称，双方正在商讨举行第二轮面对面会谈，但未透露任何细节。

President Trump announced the blockade after high-level negotiations with Iran broke down over the weekend, and said that other countries would join in. But on Monday, several European leaders rejected the idea, and at least one vessel, a tanker linked to Iran, appeared to defy the blockade.

特朗普总统在周末美伊高层谈判破裂后宣布实施封锁，并表示其他国家将加入这一行动。但周一，多位欧洲领导人拒绝了该提议，且至少有一艘与伊朗有关联的油轮似乎无视了封锁令。

Shortly after the blockade went into effect Monday morning, Iran promised to retaliate. A spokesman for its powerful Revolutionary Guards threatened to “introduce new methods of warfare,” and an Iranian military spokesman, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, said “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe” if Iranian ports were threatened.

周一上午封锁正式生效后不久，伊朗誓言报复，其强大的革命卫队发言人威胁将“采用新的作战方式”，伊朗军方发言人易卜拉欣·佐勒法加里表示，若伊朗港口受到威胁，“波斯湾和阿曼湾的所有港口都将不再安全”。

The goal of the blockade is to prevent Iran from profiting from oil exports and to put pressure on its leaders to accept American conditions for ending more than a month of war. The U.S. military said that it would block ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas” while allowing other vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz on their way to other ports.

此次封锁的目的是阻止伊朗从石油出口中获利，向伊朗领导层施压，迫使其接受美国提出的结束这场持续一个多月战争的条件。美军称，将拦截所有“进出伊朗港口及沿海地区”的船只，但允许其他船只过境霍尔木兹海峡前往其他港口。

Before the United States moved to restrict traffic through the strait, it was Iran that had essentially shut it down. Iranian forces largely barred Western tankers and ships from transiting the strait, a Persian Gulf waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes.

在美国采取行动限制海峡通行之前，实际上是伊朗基本封锁了该海峡。伊朗军队此前基本禁止西方油轮和船只过境霍尔木兹海峡，这条波斯湾水道承担着全球约五分之一的海运石油运输量。

The price of oil has soared by more than 50 percent at times since the war began in late February. On Monday, the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, reached $102 a barrel and later settled at around $99.

自2月底战争爆发以来，油价曾一度飙升逾50%。周一，全球石油基准价布伦特原油价格一度涨至每桶102美元，随后收于约99美元。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们报道的其他内容：

• Israel: The 40-day war with Iran and the continued war with Hezbollah have left many Israelis despairing over how little they believe the fighting accomplished, particularly compared with what they had been promised, according to two new polls. Read more ›

· 以色列：两项最新民调显示，与伊朗持续40天的战争以及同真主党的持续冲突让许多以色列人深感失望。他们认为，这场战斗几乎没有取得任何成果，尤其是与此前他们得到的承诺相比。阅读更多

• Lebanon: The Israeli military said that its forces had encircled and raided the Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil, one of the largest communities near the border between the two countries. Israel’s attacks there have become a sticking point in the cease-fire negotiations, as Iran has demanded the truce extend to Lebanon. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are scheduled to meet in Washington on Tuesday for rare direct talks.

· 黎巴嫩：以色列军方称，其部队已包围并突袭了黎巴嫩城镇宾特朱拜勒，这是两国边境附近最大的聚居地之一。以色列在当地的攻势已成为停火谈判的症结所在，伊朗要求停火范围扩大至黎巴嫩。以色列和黎巴嫩驻美国大使定于周二在华盛顿举行罕见的直接会谈。

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Monday said that 2,089 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including 357 in a wave of Israeli strikes last Wednesday. In attacks attributed to Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. At least 22 people had been killed in Israel as of Sunday, as well as 12 Israeli soldiers fighting in Lebanon. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.

· 死亡人数：人权活动人士通讯社称，截至周三，伊朗至少有1701名平民遇难，其中包括254名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部周一表示，以色列与真主党最新一轮冲突已造成2089人死亡，其中357人死于上周三以色列的大规模空袭。在伊朗发动的袭击中，海湾国家至少有32人遇难。截至周日，以色列至少有22名平民死亡，另有12名以军士兵在黎巴嫩作战中阵亡。美军死亡人数为13名现役军人。

President Trump’s erratic behavior and extreme comments in recent days and weeks have turbocharged the crazy-like-a-fox-or-just-plain-crazy debate that has followed him on the national political stage for a decade.

特朗普总统近几天乃至近几周反复无常的行为和极端言论加剧了“他是装疯卖傻还是真疯了”的争论，这一争论十年来在国家政治舞台上与他如影随形。

A series of disjointed, hard-to-follow and sometimes-profane statements capped by his “a whole civilization will die tonight” threat to wipe Iran off the map last week and his head-spinning attack on the “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy” pope on Sunday night have left many with the impression of a deranged autocrat mad with power.

上周他威胁要从地图上抹去伊朗，宣称“今晚，整个文明将消亡”；周日晚间他又对教宗发起令人眼花缭乱的攻击，称其“在犯罪问题上软弱，在外交政策上糟糕”，这一系列前言不搭后语、令人费解且时而粗俗的言论让外界觉得他是一个被权力冲昏头脑、歇斯底里的独裁者。

The White House rejected such assessments, saying that Mr. Trump is sharp and keeping his opponents on edge. But the president’s eruptions have raised questions about America’s leadership in a time of war. While the country has had presidents whose capacity came under question before, most recently the octogenarian Joseph R. Biden Jr. as he aged demonstrably before the public’s eyes, never in modern times has the stability of a president been so publicly and forensically debated — and with such profound consequences.

白宫驳斥了此类评价，称特朗普思维敏锐，让对手们紧张不安。但总统的激烈言论引发了人们对战争时期美国领导力的质疑。尽管美国历史上也曾有过能力受到质疑的总统（最近的例子是年逾八旬、在公众眼中明显衰老的约瑟夫·拜登），但在现代历史上，还从未有过一位总统的精神稳定性被如此公开、如此细致地反复审视——而且其潜在后果也如此深远。

Democrats who have long challenged Mr. Trump’s psychological fitness have issued a fresh chorus of calls to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the president from power for disability. But it is not just a concern voiced by partisans on the left, late-night comics or mental health professionals making long-distance diagnoses. It can be heard now among retired generals, diplomats and foreign officials. And most strikingly, it can be heard now on the political right among onetime allies of the president.

长期以来一直质疑特朗普心理健康的民主党人再次呼吁援引第25修正案以总统失能为由将其免职。但这不仅仅是左翼党派人士、深夜脱口秀喜剧演员或进行远程诊断的心理健康专业人士的担忧。如今，在退休将领、外交官和外国官员中也能听到这种声音。最引人注目的是，如今在政治右翼阵营也能听到这种声音，来自那些一度是总统盟友的人。

Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican who recently broke with Mr. Trump, advocated using the 25th Amendment, telling CNN that threatening to destroy Iran’s civilization was “not tough rhetoric, it’s insanity.” Candace Owens, the far-right podcaster, called him “a genocidal lunatic.” Alex Jones, the conspiracy theorist and founder of Infowars, said Mr. Trump “does babble and sounds like the brain’s not doing too hot.”

最近与特朗普决裂的佐治亚州共和党前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林主张动用第25修正案，她告诉CNN，威胁摧毁伊朗文明“不是强硬言论，而是精神错乱”。极右翼播客主持人坎迪斯·欧文斯称他为“种族灭绝的疯子”。阴谋论者、Infowars创始人亚历克斯·琼斯表示，特朗普“确实在胡言乱语，听起来脑子不太正常”。

2022年，特朗普在自家位于新泽西州贝德明斯特的高尔夫俱乐部，身边是曾是他最坚定支持者之一的前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林和塔克·卡尔森。

Some of the questions about Mr. Trump’s soundness come from people who once worked with him and have since become critics. Even before the civilization post, Ty Cobb, a White House lawyer in Mr. Trump’s first term, told the journalist Jim Acosta that the president is “a man who is clearly insane” and that his recent string of belligerent, middle-of-the-night social media posts “highlights the level of his insanity.” Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary for Mr. Trump, wrote online last week that “he’s clearly not well.”

一些对特朗普精神是否健全的质疑来自曾与他共事、后来成为批评者的人。甚至在那条“文明灭亡”的发帖之前，特朗普第一任期的白宫律师泰·科布就曾对记者吉姆·阿科斯塔表示，这位总统“显然是个疯子”，而他近期一连串充满敌意、在深夜发布的社交媒体帖子“凸显了他的疯狂程度”。特朗普的前白宫新闻秘书史蒂芬妮·格里沙姆上周也在网上写道：“他显然状态不对。”

Mr. Trump fired back in a long, angry social media post that did not exactly radiate calm stability. “They have one thing in common, Low IQs,” he wrote of Ms. Owens, Mr. Jones, Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson. “They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too!” He threw the crazy charge back at them. “They’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some ‘free’ and cheap publicity.”

特朗普在社交媒体上发了一篇气急败坏的长帖予以回击，完全看不出他的冷静和稳定。“他们有一个共同点，就是智商低。”他在谈到欧文斯、琼斯、梅根·凯利和塔克·卡尔森时写道。“他们都是蠢人，他们自己知道，家人知道，其他人同样知道！”他还把“疯子”的指控回敬给对方。“他们就是疯子、捣乱分子，为了换取‘免费’而廉价的曝光，什么话都说得出来。”

The dissent on the right has not extended to Congress, where Republican lawmakers remain publicly loyal to the president, nor has it reached the cabinet, which would have to approve any invocation of the 25th Amendment, rendering that idea moot. But it reflects growing unease among Americans who in recent surveys have increasingly questioned the fitness of Mr. Trump, already the oldest president ever inaugurated, as he approaches his 80th birthday.

右翼内部的分歧尚未蔓延到国会，在那里共和党议员在公开场合仍然对总统保持忠诚；也没有扩展到内阁层面，而内阁必须同意才能援引第25条修正案，因此这一想法几乎没有实际意义。但这反映出美国民众日益增长的不安。随着特朗普即将迎来80岁生日，在最近的调查中，越来越多的民众质疑特朗普的身体状况是否适合履职。

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in February found that 61 percent of Americans think Mr. Trump has become more erratic with age and just 45 percent say he is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” down from 54 percent in 2023. Roughly half of Americans, 49 percent, deemed Mr. Trump too old to be president when asked in a YouGov poll in September, up from 34 percent in February 2024, while just 39 percent said he was not too old.

路透社/益普索今年2月的一项民调显示，61%的美国人认为特朗普随着年龄增长变得更加反复无常，只有45%的人认为他“思维敏锐，能够应对挑战”，这一比例低于2023年的54%。去年9月，YouGov的一项民调显示，约一半美国人（49%）认为特朗普年纪太大不适合当总统，高于2024年2月的34%，而只有39%的人认为他还不算太老。

Democrats have pressed the point in recent days. Mr. Trump is “an extremely sick person” (Senator Chuck Schumer of New York), “unhinged” and “out of control” (Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York) or, more bluntly, “batshit crazy” (Representative Ted Lieu of California). Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, wrote the White House physician requesting an evaluation, noting “signs consistent with dementia and cognitive decline” and “increasingly incoherent, volatile, profane, deranged, and threatening” tantrums.

民主党人近日加大了这一论调的力度。特朗普是“一个极其病态的人”（纽约州参议员查克·舒默）、“精神失控”“无法控制”（纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯），或者更直白地说，“疯得离谱”（加利福尼亚州众议员刘云平）。马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金则致信白宫医生，要求进行评估，并指出特朗普存在“与痴呆和认知能力下降相符的迹象”，以及“越来越语无伦次、情绪多变、言语粗俗、精神错乱和充满威胁”的脾气爆发。

参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默称特朗普是“一个极其病态的人”。

The president’s defenders pushed back. What critics call psychosis, they call strategy.

总统的支持者则予以反驳。批评者看来是精神异常的行为被他们称之为策略。

“Trump knows exactly what he is doing,” wrote Liz Peek, a columnist for the Hill and Fox News contributor. “Trump will continue to use maximalist (and sometimes outrageous) military and diplomatic pressure in his campaign to rid the Middle East of Iran’s near 50-year campaign of terror.”

“特朗普完全知道自己在做什么，”《国会山报》专栏作家、福克斯新闻评论员莉兹·皮克写道。“在消除伊朗近50年来恐怖活动的行动中，特朗普将继续使用最大限度的（有时甚至是极端的）军事和外交压力。”

Mr. Trump, who in his first term described himself as “a very stable genius” and has regularly boasted of passing cognitive tests meant to detect dementia, dismissed the criticism of his mental state when asked by a reporter last week.

特朗普在第一个任期内曾自称“精神状态非常稳定的天才”，并经常吹嘘自己通过了用于检测痴呆症的认知测试。上周，当被记者问及外界对其精神状态的批评时，他不以为然。

“I haven’t heard that,” he said. “But if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people like me because our country was being ripped off on trade, on everything, for many years until I came along. So if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people.”

“我没听说过，”他说。“但如果是这样，那你们就需要更多像我这样的人，因为在我出现之前，我们的国家在贸易、在所有事情上被占便宜了很多年。所以如果真是这样，那你们就需要更多像我这样的人。”

Asked for elaboration, Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said in an email: “President Trump’s sharpness, unmatched energy, and historic accessibility stand in stark contrast to what we saw during the past four years.” He argued that Mr. Biden had declined physically and mentally in that time and that The New York Times and other media had covered it up. (The Times covered Mr. Biden’s health and age extensively in multiple stories.)

在被要求进一步解释时，白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔透过电子邮件表示：“特朗普总统的敏锐头脑、无与伦比的精力以及史无前例的亲民形象与过去四年我们所看到的情况形成了鲜明对比。”他称拜登在那段时间里在身体和精神方面都出现了衰退，而《纽约时报》和其他媒体对此进行了掩盖。（《纽约时报》曾在多篇报道中广泛报道了拜登的健康和年龄问题。）

Mr. Trump’s stability has been a recurring issue since he first sought the presidency in 2016. Numerous psychiatrists and other mental health professionals have weighed in with their own opinions even without the opportunity to evaluate him. John F. Kelly, his longest serving White House chief of staff in the first term, even bought a book by 27 of those specialists called “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump,” in an effort to understand his boss and came to the conclusion that he was mentally ill.

自2016年首次竞选总统以来，特朗普的稳定性就一直是一个反复出现的问题。在没有机会对他进行评估的情况下，许多精神科医生和其他心理健康专业人士也发表了各自的看法。他第一任期内在任时间最长的白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利甚至购买了27位专家合著的《唐纳德·特朗普的危险案例》一书，试图了解他的老板，并最终得出结论：他有精神疾病。

2018年，特朗普第一任期的白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利将军在白宫椭圆形办公室。

Mr. Trump has at times tried to leverage his madman reputation. “Make them think I’m crazy,” he told Nikki Haley, his first-term ambassador to the United Nations, referring to the North Koreans. “Do you know what the secret is of a really good tweet?” he once asked William P. Barr, then his attorney general. “Just the right amount of crazy.”

特朗普有时也试图利用自己“疯子”的名声。“让他们觉得我疯了，”他曾对其第一任期的驻联合国大使妮基·黑利说，当时指的是朝鲜。“你知道一条真正成功的推文的秘诀是什么吗？”他曾问当时的司法部长威廉·巴尔，“就是恰到好处的疯狂。”

Yet Mr. Trump told The New York Post last week that this time, at least, he was not pretending. “I was willing to do it,” he said of his threat to destroy Iran’s civilization.

然而，上周特朗普告诉《纽约邮报》，至少这一次，他不是在假装。“我愿意这么做，”他在谈到摧毁伊朗文明的威胁时说道。

The public focus on Mr. Trump’s state of mind, goes further than with almost any past president. “Other than Nixon, there has never been this level of concern over time,” said Julian E. Zelizer, a Princeton historian and editor of a book on Mr. Trump’s first term.

公众对特朗普精神状态的关注超过了几乎所有历任总统。“除了尼克松之外，从未有过如此程度的持续担忧，”普林斯顿大学历史学家、一本关于特朗普第一任期著作的编辑朱利安·泽利泽说。

Indeed, the situation today eclipses even Nixon. Unlike in the 1970s, “so much of this is playing out in public,” especially with social media and cable television, Mr. Zelizer said. And, he added, “as a president who naturally disregards any guardrails or sense of decorum, Trump feels much freer, even than Nixon, to unleash his inner rage and to act on impulse.”

事实上，如今的情况甚至超过了尼克松。泽利泽说，与20世纪70年代不同，“如今它在很大程度上是在公众视野中展开的”，尤其是有了社交媒体和有线电视。他还说，“作为一位天生无视任何规则或礼仪规范的总统，特朗普觉得可以随心所欲地发泄怒火、冲动行事，甚至比尼克松还要肆无忌惮。”

In his second term, Mr. Trump seems even less restrained and more incoherent at times. He uses more profanity, speaks longer and regularly makes comments rooted in fantasy rather than fact. He keeps saying that his father was born in Germany when in fact he was born in the Bronx. He repeats an invented story about his uncle, an M.I.T. professor, telling him about teaching the terrorist known as the Unabomber.

在第二任期内，特朗普似乎更加缺乏约束，有时也更显语无伦次。他使用更多粗话，讲话时间更长，并且经常发表基于幻想而非事实的言论。他反复声称自己的父亲出生在德国，实际上却出生在布朗克斯。他还一再讲述一个编造的故事：他在麻省理工学院当教授的叔叔告诉他，自己教过那名被称为“大学航空炸弹客”的恐怖分子。

In recent days, he declared that “Iran’s New Regime President” was “much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors.” Except that Iran’s new president is the same as the old president. There has been no change in presidents. Mr. Trump may have meant the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, but he is considered even more hard-line than his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the war.

近日，他宣称“伊朗新政权总统”“没有前任那么激进，也更聪明”。但事实上，伊朗现任总统与之前是同一人，并没有换人。特朗普可能是指新的最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，但外界普遍认为他比其父亲、在战争中被杀的阿里·哈梅内伊更为强硬。

周日晚间，特朗普在返回白宫途中。

One difference from the first term is that there are few if any advisers like Mr. Kelly who consider it their responsibility to keep Mr. Trump from going too far. “When he does what he does, everyone around him keeps their eyes to the floor and says nothing,” Mr. Zelizer said. “Unlike the first term, they don’t even seem to maneuver behind the scenes to stop him.”

与第一任期相比的一个不同之处在于，如今几乎没有像约翰·凯利那样认为有责任阻止特朗普走得太远的顾问。“当他那样行事时，他身边的人都低着头，一言不发，”泽利泽说，“不像第一任期，他们现在甚至似乎连在幕后悄悄设法阻止都不做了。”

But there may be political latitude for it with his base. “There is an element of American politics in the age of polarization, particularly within the G.O.P., that likes this style of leadership,” Mr. Zelizer said. “What can be more anti-establishment than someone who is willing to be out of control?”

不过，在其支持者群体中，这种做法或许仍有政治空间。“在两极分化的时代，美国政治中——尤其是在共和党内部——有一部分人就是喜欢这种领导风格，”泽利泽说。“还有什么比一个愿意失控的人更反建制的呢？”

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary was for years Europe’s pre-eminent political wizard, a leader endowed with uncanny insight into his people’s desires and fears and the ability to steer political tides.

匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班多年来一直是欧洲首屈一指的政治巫师，这位领导人仿佛拥有看穿民众欲望与恐惧的超凡洞察力，还能精准操控政治风向。

He won four thumping election victories in a row — more than any other current European Union leader — and declared liberal democracy passé long before President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia pronounced it finished, in 2019, or President Trump first won the White House, in 2016.

他连续四次赢得压倒性选举胜利，次数超过任何一位现任欧盟领导人。早在2019年俄罗斯总统普京宣称自由民主已终结、2016年特朗普首次入主白宫之前，他就早已断言自由民主已然过时。

On Sunday, it became clear that Mr. Orban had lost his magic.

然而周日，欧尔班的魔力显然消失了。

Peter Magyar, the opposition leader whose Tisza party scored a crushing victory in Hungary’s general election, told cheering crowds that they had ushered in “regime change.”

反对党领袖彼得·毛焦尔带领其蒂萨党在匈牙利大选中取得碾压性胜利，他对欢呼的人群表示，他们迎来了“政权更迭”。

“You have worked a miracle,” he said. “Hungary has written history.”

“你们创造了奇迹，”他说。“匈牙利书写了历史。”

What had really happened, however, was that Mr. Orban had failed to rewrite a basic rule of politics, particularly for populists: You have to be popular to win elections.

但真正发生的是，欧尔班未能改写一条最基本的政治法则——对民粹主义者而言尤其如此：要赢得选举，你必须得民心。

The result on Sunday did not represent an ideological earthquake or a sudden swerve among Hungarians from right to left, but rather something highly personal. Voters toppled a strongman leader who, increasingly cocooned in the flattery of sycophants and the praise of a sprawling propaganda machine, had lost his touch.

周日的选举结果并非意识形态的大地震，也不是匈牙利民众突然从右翼转向左翼，更多是出于个人化的因素。选民推翻了这位强人领导人：他日益被阿谀奉承者的吹捧和庞大宣传机器的赞美层层包裹，早已失去了对民意的感知。

“The fall of the Orban regime feels as sudden and cataclysmic as the collapse of communism in 1989,” said Imre Karacs, a veteran journalist who covered the unraveling of communist governments at that time.

“欧尔班政权的倒台感觉和1989年共产主义的崩溃一样突然、一样具有颠覆性，”资深记者伊姆雷·卡拉奇说，他当年曾报道过各国共产党政府的垮台。

“But both events seemed inevitable to people who dared to believe,” he added.

“但对于那些敢于相信的人来说，这两件事似乎都是不可避免的，”他还说。

反对党领袖彼得·毛焦尔领导的蒂萨党在匈牙利大选中取得了压倒性胜利，图为他于3月在凯斯特海伊参加竞选集会。

Mr. Orban’s spell was broken by Mr. Magyar, a conservative former Orban loyalist who shares many of the departing prime minister’s views on matters like immigration. But Mr. Magyar offered a less pugnacious, less divisive style, promising a “humane” Hungary at peace with itself and the European Union.

打破欧尔班魔咒的毛焦尔本身是一名保守派，曾是欧尔班的忠实支持者，在移民等诸多问题上与即将卸任的总理观点一致。但毛焦尔展现出一种更温和、不那么分裂的风格，承诺打造一个与自身及欧盟和平共处的“人性化”匈牙利。

Tisza won 138 seats in Parliament — more than two-thirds of the total — and left Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party a shellshocked rump with just 55. The win delivered a slap in the face to President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and right-wing Europeans like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, all of whom had enthusiastically endorsed Mr. Orban and jumped into Hungary’s election campaign on his behalf.

蒂萨党赢得了议会138个席位——超过总席位的三分之二，而欧尔班的青民盟惨败，仅获得55席，沦为元气大伤的少数派。这场胜利对于特朗普总统、副总统万斯以及荷兰的海尔特·维尔德斯等欧洲右翼人士来说无疑是一记耳光，他们都曾热情支持欧尔班，并且为他在匈牙利的竞选造势。

In the end, Hungary’s pioneer of right-wing populism stopped being popular. The same had happened earlier to Janez Jansa, a three-time prime minister in Slovenia and a fervent admirer of Mr. Orban who in 2022 lost a parliamentary election.

最终，这位匈牙利右翼民粹主义的先驱失去了民心。同样的命运此前也降临在斯洛文尼亚三度担任总理的亚内兹·扬沙身上，他是欧尔班的狂热崇拜者，在2022年输掉了议会选举。

Mr. Orban and other right-wing populists who have floundered in office ignored the Russian maxim that politics always involves tension between “the television” — propaganda — and “the refrigerator” — people’s lived reality.

欧尔班和其他在任期间陷入困境的右翼民粹主义者都忽略了一句俄罗斯政治格言：政治永远是“电视”（即宣传）与“冰箱”（即民众现实生活）之间的博弈。

It was a message reinforced on Monday by Mr. Magyar, who said “for years, Viktor Orban has paid no attention to the problems affecting Hungarians.”

毛焦尔周一也重申了这一点，他说：“多年来，维克托·欧尔班从未关注过匈牙利民众面临的实际问题。”

“We have never heard him speak about health care, education or cost-of-living issues,” he said. “He was playing a kind of five-dimensional chess game. And this, among other things, was likely one of the reasons for his defeat.”

“我们从没听过他谈论医疗、教育或生活成本问题，”毛焦尔说。“他一直在下所谓的五维国际象棋。而这，加上其他因素，很可能就是他败选的原因之一。”

Mr. Orban put all his chips on the television, deploying a vast apparatus of Fidesz-friendly media outlets to vilify his opponents. Mr. Magyar was variously presented as a crook, as a Ukrainian puppet, as a sex maniac with a taste for teenagers and as an abusive husband, while President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was demonized as an existential menace who would bring war to Hungary if Mr. Magyar won.

欧尔班把所有筹码都押在“电视”上，动用庞大的亲青民盟媒体机器抹黑对手。毛焦尔被描绘成骗子、乌克兰傀儡、嗜好未成年少女的性变态和家暴丈夫；乌克兰总统泽连斯基则被妖魔化为致命威胁，欧尔班声称，如果毛焦尔当选，泽连斯基就会把战争带到匈牙利。

After Mr. Orban’s landslide election victory in 2022, he promised a “golden age” for Hungary’s economy. But, deformed by corruption, the country tipped into recession. Although slightly less sickly now, Hungary still has the slowest growth in the region. Unemployment is at a 10-year high.

2022年欧尔班以压倒性优势连任后，曾承诺为匈牙利经济带来“黄金时代”。但在腐败的侵蚀下，该国陷入了经济衰退。尽管如今略有好转，匈牙利仍是该地区经济增长最慢的国家，失业率也创下了10年来的新高。

“The gap between the television and the fridge becomes unbridgeable,” said David Pressman, a former U.S. ambassador to Hungary under the Biden administration and a frequent target for Mr. Orban’s propaganda machine.

“电视与冰箱之间的鸿沟已经变得无法逾越，”拜登政府时期的前美国驻匈牙利大使戴维·普雷斯曼说，他本人也是欧尔班宣传机器的频繁攻击目标。

周日，布达佩斯庆祝蒂萨党取得压倒性胜利的人群。

Even some of those sympathetic to Mr. Orban had voiced dismay before the election that he was paying so little attention to the economic woes of ordinary Hungarians, including dilapidated schools and hospitals without toilet paper. At a panel discussion last week organized by the Danube Institute, one of a galaxy of government-funded think tanks set up to sing Mr. Orban’s praises, premonitions of the approaching defeat filled the room.

甚至一些原本同情欧尔班的人在选举前也对他漠视普通匈牙利人的经济困境表示失望——包括破败的学校，以及连卫生纸都供应不足的医院。上周，由政府资助、专门为欧尔班唱赞歌的众多智库之一多瑙河研究所举办了一场小组讨论会，现场弥漫着败选将至的预感。

John Fund, a writer for National Review, complained that Mr. Orban was “fighting the last war,” referring to the 2022 election campaign, which Fidesz won by stoking fears that Hungary would be dragged into the Ukraine war if Mr. Orban was not in charge.

《国家评论》撰稿人约翰·范德抱怨欧尔班在“打上一场战争”，他指的是2022年大选，当时青民盟煽动“欧尔班下台就会把匈牙利拖入乌克兰战争”的恐惧情绪，从而赢得了选举。

“This is not what most people will be voting on. They will be voting on whether their lives will get better,” Mr. Fund said. “The average Hungarian has been standing still.”

“这根本不是大多数选民关心的问题，他们投票看的是自己的生活会不会变好，”范德说。“普通匈牙利人的生活水平一直停滞不前。”

Mr. Orban blamed Hungary’s economic troubles on Ukraine and the European Union, as did Mr. Vance, who visited Budapest last week in a last-ditch effort to lift the Hungarian leader’s fortunes. “Brussels bureaucrats,” Mr. Vance said, standing next to Mr. Orban, had “tried to destroy the Hungarian economy” to sway the election on Sunday “because they hate this guy.”

欧尔班将匈牙利的经济困境归咎于乌克兰和欧盟，上周前往布达佩斯、试图在最后关头帮这位匈牙利领导人扭转选情不利局面的万斯也持同样观点。万斯站在欧尔班身边说：“布鲁塞尔的官僚们试图摧毁匈牙利经济”，以便影响周日的选举，“只因为他们恨这个人。”

Most officials in Brussels and European leaders didn’t like Mr. Orban, but the bigger problem was that neither did many Hungarian voters, including onetime supporters who tired of his fear mongering about Ukraine and who grew frustrated by the country’s grandiose corruption — the worst in the European Union, according to Transparency International — and by his claims that life was getting ever better.

布鲁塞尔的大多数官员和欧洲领导人确实不喜欢欧尔班，但更大的问题是，许多匈牙利选民也不再喜欢他了——包括曾经的支持者。他们厌倦了他无休止地渲染乌克兰威胁，对匈牙利触目惊心的腐败（据透明国际组织统计，该国的腐败情况是欧盟最严重的）感到愤怒，更对他声称生活越来越好的说法忍无可忍。

For many voters, Mr. Magyar’s biggest asset was not his policies on education, health care or the European Union, which he never elaborated on in any detail, but that he was not Mr. Orban.

对许多选民来说，毛焦尔最大的优势并非他从未详细阐述过的教育、医疗或欧盟政策，而是因为他不是欧尔班。

工作人员为毛焦尔于周一在布达佩斯举行的新闻发布会做准备。

Mr. Orban even had what some called a “Ceausescu moment,” a reference to December 1989, when the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu realized in disbelief that a crowd gathered to cheer him was actually booing. Opposition-friendly news media published photographs and videos of Mr. Orban looking stunned — and then very angry — when people started booing him at a campaign rally in the western city of Gyor.

欧尔班甚至经历了被一些人称为“齐奥塞斯库时刻”的瞬间，这指的是1989年12月，罗马尼亚独裁者尼古拉·齐奥塞斯库难以置信地发现，原本应该聚集起来为他欢呼的人群，其实是在嘘他。亲反对党的媒体发布了照片和视频，显示在匈牙利西部城市杰尔的一场竞选集会上，当民众开始发出嘘声时，欧尔班先是一脸错愕，随即勃然大怒。

Mr. Orban was never a dictator — he conceded defeat on Sunday with grace and dignity — but he did undermine democratic norms.

欧尔班从来不是独裁者——周日，他体面而有尊严地承认了败选，但他确实破坏了民主规范。

During his 16 years in power, he remade Hungary in his own image, eliminating many checks and balances by stacking the judicial system and nominally independent agencies with Fidesz loyalists, and taking control of most news outlets. In 2014, he gave this construct a name: “an illiberal state, a non-liberal state.”

在16年的执政生涯中，他按照自己的形象重塑了匈牙利：在司法系统和名义上独立的机构中安插青民盟亲信，从而废除了诸多权力制衡机制，并掌控了绝大多数新闻媒体。2014年，他将这种体制命名为“非自由派国家，非自由主义国家”。

It was a model he sought to export but, according to a pre-election analysis by the Cato Institute, an American research group, “Far from being a model, Orbán’s Hungary is a cautionary tale of what results from an unrestrained executive with strongly centralized power, crony capitalism and the systematic dismantling of the rule of law.”

他曾试图将这一模式输出到全世界，但美国智库卡托研究所的选前分析指出：“欧尔班治下的匈牙利绝非什么典范，而是一个警示故事，它揭示了行政权力的不受约束和高度集中、裙带资本主义和对法治的系统性破坏会带来怎样的后果。”

Until 2024, Mr. Magyar was part of this system, and, Mr. Karacs, the journalist, said that his views were “not that distant from mainstream Fidesz apparatchiks — which is what he was just two years ago.”

直到2024年，毛焦尔还是这个体制的一部分。记者卡拉奇说，他的观点“与青民盟主流官僚相去不远——两年前他本人就是其中一员”。

Leftists and liberals, Mr. Karacs added, had “swallowed their misgivings for the sake of the cause: Get rid of Orban.”

卡拉奇还说，左翼和自由派人士“为了推翻欧尔班这个共同的目标，都咽下了自己的疑虑”。

Four years ago Malaysia waived import taxes on electric cars, part of a plan to move away from fossil fuels.

四年前，马来西亚取消了电动车的进口关税，这是该国逐步淘汰化石燃料计划的一部分。

The country was not making electric vehicles at the time, and Chinese automakers started shipping models like the BYD Atto 3 by the thousands. Soon Chinese companies came to dominate Malaysia’s small but growing E.V. market.

当时它自己并不生产电动车，而中国汽车制造商开始将比亚迪Atto 3这样的车型成千上万地运往这里。很快，中国企业便主导了马来西亚规模虽小但不断增长的电动车市场。

But the import-tax holiday ended on Dec. 31, 2025. More recently the Malaysian government announced new restrictions on imported cars. The minimum sale price of imported E.V.s is being doubled to 200,000 ringgit or about $50,000, according to Johari Abdul Ghani, Malaysia’s trade minister.

但进口免税政策已于2025年12月31日结束。最近，马来西亚政府又宣布了对进口汽车的新限制措施。根据马来西亚贸易部长佐哈里·阿卜杜尔·甘尼的说法，进口电动车的最低售价将被提高一倍至20万林吉特（约合5万美元）。

The aim is to protect jobs because Malaysia’s own carmakers are now making E.V.s. The government is hoping to push Chinese companies to assemble and manufacture vehicles in Malaysia.

此举旨在保护就业，因为马来西亚本土汽车制造商现在开始生产电动汽车了。政府希望推动中国企业在马来西亚组装和制造汽车。

China has flooded countries around the world with exports, often at low prices. The policy changes in Malaysia show how China’s manufacturing heft can force governments to make tough choices between promoting its auto industry and creating jobs, while protecting homegrown companies from foreign competition.

中国经常以低廉的价格向世界各国大量出口。马来西亚的政策变化表明，中国的制造业实力如何迫使各国政府在保护本土企业免受外国竞争的同时，不得不在促进本国汽车产业发展与创造就业之间做出艰难抉择

Two of the Chinese carmakers operating in Malaysia, BYD and Chery, would benefit from tax incentives the government is offering to companies that set up assembly plants. The companies will also face Malaysian government rules that apply to all foreign E.V. makers: Only 20 percent of the cars the plants make can be sold in Malaysia — the rest must be exported — and have to be sold at a minimum price of 100,000 ringgit.

在马来西亚运营的两家中国汽车制造商比亚迪和奇瑞将从政府为设立组装厂的企业提供的税收优惠中受益。同时，这些公司也将受到适用于所有外国电动车制造商的规定约束：工厂生产的汽车中，只有20%可以在马来西亚销售，其余必须出口；并且最低售价不得低于10万林吉特。

“In the long run, we want to ensure that manufacturers produce car components in Malaysia for assembly, rather than relying heavily on imports,” Mr. Johari said in an interview.

“从长远来看，我们想确保制造商在马来西亚生产汽车零部件用于组装，而不是高度依赖进口，”佐哈里·阿卜杜尔·甘尼在接受采访时表示。

2024年，比亚迪出口汽车在中国烟台港等待装船。

It was unclear if BYD, which was slated to build its assembly plant in the state of Perak, will go forward with its plans. The company said it is “still reviewing all possibilities and aligning internally,” declining to elaborate.

目前尚不清楚原计划在霹雳州建组装厂的比亚迪是否会继续推进其计划。该公司表示“仍在评估所有可能性并进行内部协调”，拒绝进一步说明。

Chery, however, is moving forward with its plans to build an assembly plant on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, the capital city.

不过，奇瑞正推进其在首都吉隆坡郊区建组装厂的计划。

Men Lin Bo, an executive vice president at Chery Corporate Malaysia, said the company had begun building the facility, which will produce gas-electric hybrid and gasoline-fueled cars. “Construction at the site is ongoing and progressing well. We hope to produce some cars by this year,” he said.

奇瑞马来西亚公司执行副总裁门林波表示，公司已开始建厂，该工厂将生产油电混合动力车和汽油车。“项目建设正在进行中，进展顺利。我们希望今年能生产出部分汽车，”他说。

The rules limiting domestic sales do not apply to foreign manufacturers that use the three existing assembly plants in Malaysia, the trade ministry said.

马来西亚贸易部表示，限制本地销售的规定不适用于使用马来西亚现有三家组装厂的外国制造商。

“E.V. makers will be considering whether it makes sense to set up manufacturing facilities in Malaysia if they already have plants elsewhere in Southeast Asia,” said Ramone Mikgail Kok, the investment research and advisory head at Hong Leong Bank based in Kuala Lumpur.

“如果汽车制造商在东南亚其他地方已有工厂，它们会考虑在马来西亚设立制造设施是否划算，”驻吉隆坡的丰隆银行投资研究与咨询主管拉莫内·米克高尔·郭表示。

The rise of Chinese automakers can be seen across Malaysia’s car districts. An area about 20 minutes from Kuala Lumpur, which was long dominated by Japanese and European brands, now includes several Chinese automakers.

在马来西亚各地的汽车销售商圈，中国车企的崛起已非常明显。在距离吉隆坡约20分钟车程的一片销售区域，过去长期由日本和欧洲品牌主导，如今已出现多家中国汽车厂商。

Malaysia’s biggest domestic carmakers, Proton and Perodua, each introduced electric vehicle models last year. Perodua spent over $200 million developing the QV-E, its first electric model. Proton, in the first three months of the year, sold 6,701 of its e.MAS 5 electric car, far outpacing the 999 units of BYD’s Atto 3. Geely, a Chinese automaker, owns 49.9 percent of Proton.

马来西亚两大本土车企Proton和Perodua去年都推出了电动车车型。Perodua投入超过2亿美元开发其首款电动车QV-E。今年前三个月，Proton售出了6701辆e.MAS 5电动车，远高于比亚迪Atto 3的999辆。中国车企吉利持有Proton 49.9%的股份。

President Trump’s decision to blockade all Iranian shipments out of or into the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning sets up the next great test in the Iran war: Which side can endure more economic pain, Tehran’s new leadership or Mr. Trump himself?

特朗普总统决定从周一上午开始封锁进出霍尔木兹海峡的所有伊朗船只，这构成了伊朗战争中的下一个重大考验：究竟谁更能承受经济痛苦，德黑兰的新领导层还是特朗普本人？

Almost everything about how this new turn in the war plays out is likely to look very different than what has unfolded so far.

这场战争出现的新转折可能在各个方面都与此前的情况截然不同。

Instead of directing missiles and bombs at military sites, missile emplacements and Iran’s defense industry, Mr. Trump will try to choke off the country’s lifeblood, the oil that accounts for more than 50 percent of its exports and just about all of the government’s revenue.

特朗普不会再将导弹和炸弹对准军事基地、导弹阵地和伊朗的国防工业，而是试图扼杀该国的命脉——占其出口一半以上的石油，几乎是其政府收入的全部来源。

The president’s first hope, administration officials said on Sunday, is to force the government to surrender to the terms that Vice President JD Vance laid out in peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan — and that Iran rejected, just as it did in negotiations in Geneva before the war began on Feb. 28. The list of terms starts with Iran’s agreement to turn over every ounce of its uranium stockpile, permanently dismantle its huge infrastructure for producing nuclear fuel and give up its claims to regulate traffic in the strait.

政府官员周日表示，总统首先希望的是迫使其政府接受万斯副总统在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡和平谈判中提出的条件——和2月28日战争开始前拒绝日内瓦谈判的条件一样，伊朗对此已经予以拒绝。首要的条件是伊朗同意交出所有的铀储备，永久拆除其庞大的核燃料生产基础设施，并放弃其监管海峡交通的主张。

Failing an Iranian capitulation, Mr. Trump appears to still harbor the hope he expressed the first evening of the war: that a restive Iranian populace will rise up and overthrow the military-clerical regime that has guided the country since the revolution in 1979. But engineering that outcome is no easier than it was a month and a half ago.

如果伊朗不投降，特朗普似乎仍然抱有他在战争第一晚表达的希望：躁动的伊朗民众将奋起推翻自1979年革命以来一直统治该国的军人-神权政权。但如今要促成这一结果，并不比一个半月前更容易。

For its part, Iran’s strategy appears to be one of waging the conflict in the global markets, where Tehran has discovered new powers. Acutely aware that they lost the military contest in the first five weeks, but performed above expectations in the information arena and in terrorizing their neighbors with well-aimed missile and drone strikes, the Iranians are betting that Mr. Trump’s tolerance for political pain is limited.

就伊朗而言，其战略似乎是在全球市场上进行这场冲突，德黑兰在那里发现了新的力量。伊朗人敏锐地意识到他们在前五周输掉了军事竞赛，但在信息领域和以精准导弹和无人机袭击恐吓邻国方面表现超出预期，他们打赌特朗普对政治痛苦的容忍度是有限的。

If no Iranian oil gets through the strait, prices could keep rising over time — some companies say they are planning for $175 a barrel. The Iranians understand the potential political effects of continued inflation in the United States less than seven months before midterm elections.

如果没有伊朗石油通过海峡，油价可能会随着时间的推移而持续上涨——一些公司表示他们正在为每桶175美元的价格做准备。伊朗人明白，在中期选举前不到七个月，美国持续通胀可能带来的政治影响。

“Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4 to $5 gas,” Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned American consumers after the failure of the talks he led with Mr. Vance. As of Monday morning, with the naval blockade about to begin, the markets did not seem especially panicked: Brent crude oil prices rose about 6 percent, to just above $101 a barrel, around the time the blockade was imposed, but were still below where they were before the cease-fire was declared last week.

“很快你们就会怀念四到五美元的汽油了，”伊朗首席谈判代表、议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫在与美国副总统万斯的谈判失败后，如此警告美国消费者。截至周一上午，随着海军封锁即将开始，市场似乎并没有特别恐慌：在封锁实施前后，布伦特原油价格上涨约6%，至略高于每桶101美元，但仍低于上周宣布停火前的水平。

Mr. Trump, for his part, is dialing back his previous claim that as the shooting stops, gas prices will drop. He told Fox News on Sunday that prices “should be around the same” during the midterms and might be “a little bit higher.” That is the exact fear of many Republican candidates.

特朗普本人则收回了他此前关于随着枪声停止汽油价格将会下跌的说法。他周日告诉福克斯新闻，中期选举期间的油价“应该差不多”，可能会“稍微高一点”。这正是许多共和党候选人所担心的。

This is uncharted territory. Like President John F. Kennedy’s “quarantine” of Cuba in 1962, intended to keep the Soviets from bringing nuclear weapons onto Cuban soil, it is impossible to know beforehand how this will play out. Back then, Kennedy and his advisers watched anxiously to see if the Soviets would try to “run the line” and risk military confrontation with the U.S. Navy or whether they would retreat, negotiate and find a face-saving way out.

这是一片未知的领域。就像约翰·F·肯尼迪总统在1962年对古巴进行“隔离”以求阻止苏联在古巴领土部署核武器一样，事情究竟会发展成什么样，事先很难确知。当时，肯尼迪和他的顾问们焦急地观察，看苏联人是会试图“突破封锁”，甘冒与美国海军发生军事对抗的风险，还是会撤退、谈判并找到保全面子的出路。

The Soviet leader at the time, Nikita Khrushchev, chose to back off.

当时的苏联领导人尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫选择了退让。

Now that the blockade on any ships leaving or destined for Iranian ports has gone into effect, it may soon become clear whether the new ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps make the same choice. But without a navy, Iran knows it has virtually no chance in a direct confrontation.

现在对进出伊朗港口的一切船只进行的封锁已经生效，新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊和伊斯兰革命卫队是否会做出同样的选择，可能很快就会明朗。但由于没有海军，伊朗知道自己在直接对抗中几乎毫无胜算。

For Mr. Trump, this is yet another reversal of strategy. A few weeks ago, he decided to allow Iran to sell oil that was already at sea, in hopes of easing supply shortages. But the effects on prices were minimal. And Mr. Trump looked as though he were conducting a halfhearted war, bombing Iran while allowing it to profit. And the country's imposition of tolls on traffic going through the strait meant that a new revenue stream was opening up for Tehran at the moment it needed it most.

对特朗普来说，这又是一次战略逆转。几周前，他决定允许伊朗出售已经在海上的石油，希望能缓解供应短缺。但对价格的影响微乎其微。而且特朗普看起来像是在进行一场半心半意的战争，一边轰炸伊朗，一边允许其获利。该国对通过海峡的交通征收通行费，意味着在德黑兰最需要的时候，一个新的收入来源正在打开。

“The current situation, in which Iran gets to deny use of the strait to all except its friends or those who pay up, is untenable,” said Richard Haass, a former Republican senior national security official and the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who was among the first to advocate a blockade strategy.

“目前的局面是，伊朗拒绝除其朋友或付费者以外的所有人使用海峡，这是不可持续的，”理查德·哈斯说，他曾是共和党高级国家安全官员和前外交关系委员会主席，也是最早提倡封锁战略的人之一。

“It gets rich while others get poor,” he continued. “A blockade adds to the economic pressure on Iran that already existed before the war and was made worse by the war. If they want to sell their oil, they need to reopen the strait to all.”

“它变富了，而别人变穷，”他接着说。“封锁增加了战前就已存在、并因战争而恶化的对伊朗的经济压力。如果他们想出售石油，就需要向所有人重新开放海峡。”

It might work. But there is also the possibility that Iran’s reaction will be to resume attacks on energy facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and perhaps even Saudi Arabia. In that scenario, Iran would essentially say that if it cannot ship oil, its Arab neighbors will not be able to, either.

这可能会奏效。但也有可能伊朗的反应将是恢复对阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特甚至沙特阿拉伯能源设施的袭击。在这种情况下，伊朗实质上是在说，如果它不能运输石油，其阿拉伯邻国也不能。

As with so much in this war, there was confusion on Sunday about what, exactly, was subject to blockade. Mr. Trump’s initial social media post declared a “complete” blockade on all traffic in and out of the strait. But as described in a news release on Sunday from U.S. Central Command, and later by Mr. Trump himself, the blockade applies only to ships going to or from Iranian ports. Cargo from other Gulf states will be allowed to pass, assuming they are willing to take the risk of hitting mines or being attacked by Iranian speedboats or drones. It was also unclear how the United States would determine which ships had paid a toll to the Iranians.

与这场战争中的许多情况一样，究竟哪些船会被封锁，直到周日仍存在困惑。特朗普最初的社交媒体帖子宣布对进出海峡的所有交通实施“完全”封锁。但正如美国中央司令部周日的新闻稿以及后来特朗普本人所描述的那样，封锁仅适用于进出伊朗港口的船只。来自其他海湾国家的货物将被允许通过，前提是它们愿意承担触雷或被伊朗快艇或无人机袭击的风险。至于美国将如何确定哪些船只向伊朗人支付了通行费，目前也不得而知。

The strait has been shuttered before, of course, but history does not provide much guidance that fits the current situation.

当然，海峡以前也曾关闭过，但历史并没有提供多少适合当前情况的指导。

As Mr. Haass, along with the historians Niall Ferguson and Philip Zelikow noted in The Free Press last week, the Portuguese first took control of the strait 519 years ago and charged a toll. They were ousted by Persian and British forces. Half a millennium later, the Portuguese and the British made clear that the attack on Iran, even in the name of preventing it from getting within reach of a nuclear weapon, was ill considered.

正如哈斯与历史学家尼尔·弗格森、菲利普·泽利科上周在《自由报》中指出的那样，最早是葡萄牙人在519年前控制了海峡并收取通行费。他们被波斯和英国军队驱逐。五个世纪后的葡萄牙人和英国人明确表示，即使是以防止伊朗获得核武器为名攻击伊朗，也是不明智的。

In the early 1950s, Britain blockaded the strait after Iran’s prime minister at the time, Mohammad Mossadegh, nationalized the country’s oil industry. He was overthrown in a coup that was partly supported by the C.I.A., a covert intervention that the Iranians resent to this day and that history has not treated kindly.

20世纪50年代初，在当时的伊朗总理穆罕默德·摩萨台将该国石油工业国有化后，英国封锁了海峡。摩萨台在一次部分由中央情报局支持的政变中被推翻，伊朗人至今仍对此耿耿于怀，其历史评价也趋于负面。

And there were episodic disruptions during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

20世纪80年代的两伊战争期间也曾发生过间歇性的中断。

But none of those experiences is a very close analog to the complex confrontation that is currently unfolding. If the blockade is short-lived and ends Iran’s ability to extort the global economy, Mr. Trump’s gamble may well look like a savvy turning of the tables. And if the Iranian leadership gives in to his demands, it may ratify Mr. Trump’s conclusion that the new leadership is more “reasonable” than the last.

但这些经历都不是当前正在展开的复杂对抗的近似类比。如果封锁是短暂的，并终结了伊朗勒索全球经济的能力，特朗普的赌博很可能看起来像是一次精明的扭转局势之举。如果伊朗领导层屈服于他的要求，这可能会证实特朗普的结论，即新领导层比上一届更“通情达理”。

If the blockade drags on, though, Mr. Trump runs the risk of looking once again as though he failed to see around corners, anticipating what could go wrong with an attack on what appeared to be a weakened Iran. The war that he thought might last only days is entering its seventh week. And for the global economy, the hard part is not close to over.

但如果封锁拖长，特朗普就有可能再次显得好像没能未卜先知，没能预料到对一个看似被削弱的伊朗发动攻击可能会出现的问题。这场他以为可能只持续几天的战争即将进入第七周。而对于全球经济来说，艰难的部分还远未结束。

The war in the Middle East has disrupted oil and gas supplies, jolting governments around the world to confront the urgent need for power grids that can withstand future shocks.

中东战争扰乱了石油和天然气供应，震动了世界各国政府，让它们不得不面对一个迫切需求：建设能够抵御未来冲击的电力网络。

But for many countries, the push to build grids based on renewable energy is creating a new dependence on technology from China.

但对许多国家来说，推动基于可再生能源的电网建设却意味着形成一种对中国技术的新依赖。

Chinese companies dominate the manufacturing of nearly every component of a modern grid, including solar panels, high-voltage cables, transformers and batteries that store energy for later use. Even before the war in Iran, they were expanding abroad, helping countries build grids designed to meet the heavy electricity demands of artificial intelligence.

中国公司在现代电网几乎所有组件的制造领域占据主导地位，包括太阳能电池板、高压电缆、变压器，以及用于储存能源以备后用的电池。甚至在伊朗战争爆发之前，这些企业就已在海外扩张，帮助各国建设能够满足人工智能高耗电需求的电网。

For decades, China has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into green energy, making it a cornerstone of the country’s drive for energy independence. It also blocked foreign companies from competing in large segments of its domestic market, such as manufacturing wind turbines and electric car batteries, to ensure that Chinese companies could grow into giants.

数十年来，中国投入数千亿美元发展绿色能源，将其作为国家能源独立战略的基石。它还限制外国公司在国内市场的大部分领域竞争（如风力涡轮机和电动汽车电池制造），以确保中国企业成长为巨头。

Now the war with Iran has laid bare the risks of reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas. Countries are realizing that all paths to renewable power run through China and its exporters.

如今，与伊朗的战争暴露了依赖中东石油和天然气的风险。各国意识到，通往可再生能源的所有道路都经过中国及其出口商。

Even if a cease-fire between the United States and Iran helps ease disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the shock has already grabbed the attention of governments worldwide. Faced with energy shortages, they are accelerating efforts to upgrade their power grids, bringing them to the doorstep of Chinese companies eager to supply them.

即使美国与伊朗达成停火有助于缓解霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断，这一冲击已引起全球各国政府的关注。面对能源短缺，它们正在加速升级电力网络的努力，这将它们直接带到乐意供货的中国公司门口。

“This is the right time for a shock like the war in Iran to suddenly catalyze even more investment and interest in renewables,” said Cory Combs, an associate director at Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.

“伊朗战争这样的冲击来得正是时候，突然催化了对可再生能源的更多投资和兴趣，”研究和咨询公司策纬咨询副总监科里·库姆斯说。

中国是大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴，也是稀土金属和太阳能电池板等制造业必需品的主要或近乎独家供应商。

Chinese companies increasingly produce the most affordable and most efficient renewable energy and grid storage technologies, Mr. Combs said. “You’re not going to compete with China at this point.”

库姆斯表示，中国公司越来越能生产出最实惠、最高效的可再生能源和电网储能技术。“此时此刻，你无法与中国竞争。”

Last month, the Philippines said it was working to bring 22 new renewable power plants online within weeks to shore up grid stability.

上个月，菲律宾表示正努力在数周内让22座新的可再生能源发电厂并网，以增强电网稳定性。

Already a major destination for Chinese investment in energy infrastructure, Brazil took bids in late March for the construction of new power plants, and is set to do so again this month for large-scale battery storage.

作为中国能源基础设施投资的主要目的地，巴西在3月底招标建设新的发电厂，并计划本月再次招标大规模电池储能项目。

“Brazil needs technology in this area, and China has a lot to contribute,” said Larissa Wachholz, a partner at Vallya, a firm that consults with Chinese and other international companies doing business in Brazil. The war in the Middle East has been “a huge reminder that the world will need even more energy,” she said.

“巴西在这个领域需要技术，而中国有很多可以贡献，”为中国及其他国际企业在巴西开展业务的咨询公司Vallya的合伙人拉里萨·瓦霍尔茨说。她表示，中东战争“是一个巨大的提醒：世界将需要更多能源”。

China is the main trading partner for most countries worldwide and the dominant or near-exclusive supplier of essentials like rare-earth metals and solar panels. But governments in Europe and elsewhere are growing uneasy that this reliance could undermine their economic and national security, especially after the past year, when China shut off much of the world’s supply of certain rare earths.

中国是全球大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴，也是稀土金属和太阳能电池板等必需品的主要或近乎独家供应商。但欧洲及其他地区的政府越来越担心，这种依赖可能削弱它们的经济和国家安全，尤其是在过去一年中国切断某些稀土全球大部分供应之后。

Sales of essential electricity-related equipment are already growing rapidly. Global shipments of batteries used to store electricity for a grid — a sector dominated by Chinese firms — nearly doubled in the first three months of the year, said Matty Zhao, head of Asia-Pacific oil, gas and basic materials research at BofA Global Research, a unit of Bank of America.

美国银行下属美银全球研究的亚太石油、天然气和基础材料研究主管麦蒂·赵表示，关键电力相关设备的销售已在快速增长。用于电网储电的电池（一个由中国企业主导的领域）全球出货量在今年前三个月几乎翻倍。

“After the war ends, countries around the world will continue to need to build out more of their energy network,” Ms. Zhao said.

“战争结束后，世界各国将继续需要进一步建设能源网络，”她说。

2025年上海车展上展示的一块宁德时代电动汽车电池。

Chinese battery manufacturers and renewable energy equipment makers were already raising money in Hong Kong to fund an overseas push, anticipating a surge in demand from power-hungry A.I. systems. But the war has added fresh urgency and new opportunities.

中国电池制造商和可再生能源设备生产商此前已在香港筹资，为海外扩张提供资金，以应对耗电量巨大的人工智能系统带来的需求激增。但这场战争增加了新的紧迫感和新机会。

Last May, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., or CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries, set off a wave of listings with Hong Kong’s biggest public offering since 2021.

去年5月，全球最大电动汽车电池制造商宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司在香港启动了自2021年以来最大规模的公开募股，掀起了一波上市潮。

Another battery maker, Shuangdeng Group, followed in August. Since then, other companies have lined up to do the same, including Sungrow, which makes energy storage systems; Ningbo Deye, a producer of solar equipment; and Sieyuan, which makes crucial components for energy grids such as transformers.

另一家电池制造商双登集团于8月跟进。此后，其他公司也排队上市，包括生产储能系统的阳光电源、太阳能设备生产商宁波德业，以及生产变压器等电网关键部件的思源电气。

These companies are now spending to expand beyond China. In February, Sungrow announced plans to invest 230 million euros (about $270 million) for its first European plant, in Poland, to produce energy storage equipment. In March, Hithium, which has also applied to go public in Hong Kong, signed a letter of intent to build a €400 million battery plant in northern Spain.

这些公司如今正投入资金扩展到中国以外。2月，阳光电源宣布计划投资2.3亿欧元（约合18.4亿元人民币）在波兰建设其首座欧洲工厂，生产储能设备。3月，也已申请在香港上市的海辰储能签署意向书，在西班牙北部建设一座价值4亿欧元的电池工厂。

Since the war began, CATL has seen surging demand in Europe for home battery systems and growing interest in Asia in grid storage batteries, a company spokesman said, especially in countries with limited electricity and little domestic oil. He said that the company could not immediately expand capacity but that it had accelerated some projects.

一位公司发言人表示，自战争爆发以来，宁德时代看到欧洲对家用电池系统的需求激增，在亚洲对电网储能电池的兴趣也在增长，尤其是在电力有限且国内石油资源匮乏的国家。他说，公司无法立即扩大产能，但已加速了一些项目。

Fierce competition at home has pushed Chinese makers of energy storage and grid equipment to sharpen their manufacturing, innovate faster and look overseas for growth.

国内激烈的竞争推动中国储能和电网设备制造商不断提升制造水平、加快创新，并寻求海外增长。

Beijing has tolerated “brutal domestic competition requiring companies to continuously innovate in order to stay in the game,” said Frank Haugwitz, a consultant specializing in China’s solar sector.

北京容忍了“残酷的国内竞争，意味着企业必须持续创新才能留在赛场上”，专注于中国太阳能行业的顾问弗兰克·豪格维茨说。

Renewable energy was once expensive and unreliable. It was impossible to control the intensity of the wind and the sun, and power came in bursts that grids could not absorb. Batteries and storage systems now capture that excess energy and release it when needed.

可再生能源曾经昂贵且不可靠。风力和阳光的强度无法控制，电力以阵发形式出现，电网无法吸收。现在，电池和储能系统可以捕捉这些多余能源，并在需要时释放出来。

For years, high battery costs made renewable systems less competitive than fossil fuels. But advances in technology have brought costs down; renewable power paired with storage is now almost on par with the cost of conventional fuels, said Mr. Combs from Trivium.

多年来，高昂的电池成本使得可再生能源系统相比化石燃料缺乏竞争力。但技术进步已大幅降低成本；搭配储能的可再生电力如今在成本上已几乎与传统燃料相当，策纬咨询的库姆斯说。

Chinese companies dominate not just batteries and grid hardware but also, increasingly, the software that manages energy flows. While some governments may be wary of giving Chinese firms access to their grids via the software, they are likely to keep buying the hardware since they have few affordable alternatives, Mr. Combs said.

中国公司不仅主导电池和电网硬件，还越来越主导管理能源流动的软件。库姆斯说，虽然一些政府可能对通过软件让中国企业接入其电网保持警惕，但它们很可能继续购买硬件，因为几乎没有其他实惠的替代方案。

Chinese businesses also lead in producing a new generation of battery chemicals that allow large amounts of electricity to be stored when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, and can be used later to power homes, electric vehicles and data centers.

中国企业还领先新一代电池化学物质的生产，这些物质允许在阳光充足或风力强劲时储存大量电力，随后用于为家庭、电动汽车和数据中心供电。

The new chemistry uses lithium-ion batteries made with iron and phosphate. These batteries hold slightly less energy in the same space as older lithium-ion batteries that rely on nickel and cobalt but cost about 99 percent less. For grid storage, where space is less of a concern, the bulkier size matters far less.

新化学物质使用铁和磷酸盐制成的锂离子电池。与依赖镍和钴的老式锂电池相比，这些电池在相同空间内储存的能量略少，但成本降低了约99%。对于电网储能而言，空间不是主要问题，因此体积较大并不重要。

China produces nearly all of the world’s lithium iron phosphate batteries, according to the International Energy Agency.

根据国际能源署的数据，中国生产了全球几乎所有的磷酸铁锂电池。

The two dominant Chinese players are BYD, which has surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric carmaker, and CATL, the leading shipper of grid storage batteries.

两大主导的中国企业是已超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动汽车制造商的比亚迪，以及全球领先的电网储能电池供货商宁德时代。

As in other industries, Chinese firms’ dominance in energy technology was forged through intense competition for the enormous domestic market. China has spent years building out renewable energy and grid infrastructure at a scale no other country has matched. Last September, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, announced plans to expand wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels, adding up to 3,600 gigawatts.

与其他行业一样，中国企业在能源技术领域的主导地位是通过对庞大国内市场的激烈竞争锻造而成的。中国多年来以其他国家无法比拟的规模建设可再生能源和电网基础设施。去年9月，中国最高领导人习近平宣布计划将风电和太阳能发电容量在2020年基础上扩大至六倍，总量达到36亿千瓦。

CATL’s battery factories are vast and highly automated, stretching as long as six football fields laid end to end. The company is building them at a rapid clip to keep up with the surging demand.

宁德时代的电池工厂规模庞大且高度自动化，长度相当于六座足球场首尾相连。该公司正在快速建设这些工厂，以跟上激增的需求。

At its latest project in Yancheng, a port city about 200 miles north of Shanghai, more than 100 backhoes, bulldozers and other heavy machinery moved across a muddy construction site early this month.

本月初，在上海以北300多公里的港口城市盐城的宁德时代最新项目工地，100多台挖掘机、推土机和其他重型机械在泥泞的现场来回作业。

“It feels like the CATL construction site is developing very quickly,” said Luo Lijuan, a street cleaner who had been posted for the past month at the site’s entrance. “It changes every day.”

“感觉宁德的工地发展得非常快，”一位已在现场入口处工作一个月的清洁工罗丽娟（音）说。“每天都在变。”

At a military parade in Beijing in September, President Xi Jinping and his special guests, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, watched as Chinese forces showed off several models of drones that could autonomously fly alongside fighter jets into battle.

去年9月在北京举行的一场阅兵式上，中国国家主席习近平与他的贵宾——俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩——一同观看了中国军队展示的多款无人机，这些无人机能够自主伴飞战斗机投入作战。

The demonstration of technological might immediately set off alarm bells in the United States. Pentagon officials concluded that America’s program for unmanned combat drones was lagging China’s, according to three U.S. defense and intelligence officials. Russia, too, was thought to be ahead in building facilities that could produce advanced drones, said the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on military capabilities.

这番技术实力展示立即引起了美国的警觉。据三位美国国防和情报官员透露，五角大楼得出结论，美国的作战无人机计划已落后于中国。此外，这些官员表示，俄罗斯在建造生产先进无人机的设施方面也被认为领先于美国。由于未获授权公开谈论军事能力，这些官员要求匿名。

U.S. officials pushed domestic defense companies to step up. Last month, Anduril, a defense technology start-up in California, began manufacturing A.I.-backed, self-flying drones that appeared similar to the ones shown in China. Production at a factory outside Columbus, Ohio, started three months ahead of schedule, part of an effort to close the gap with China, one defense official said.

美国官员随即敦促国内的国防企业加快步伐。上个月，加州国防科技初创企业Anduril开始制造配备人工智能、能够自主飞行的无人机，其外观与在中国展示的型号相似。一名国防官员表示，位于俄亥俄州哥伦布市外的工厂提前三个月启动生产，这是为了缩小与中国的差距所做的努力之一。

China’s military display and the U.S. countermove were part of an escalating global arms race over A.I.-backed autonomous weapons and defense systems. Designed to operate by themselves using A.I., the technology reduces the need for human intervention in decisions like when to hit a moving target or defend against an attack.

中国的军事展示以及美国的应对举措是围绕人工智能驱动的自主武器和防御系统不断升级的全球军备竞赛的一部分。这类技术旨在通过人工智能实现自主运行作，从而减少人类在“何时打击移动目标”或“如何防御攻击”等决策中的干预。

In recent years, many nations have quietly engaged in a contest of one-upmanship over these arsenals, including drones that identify and strike targets without human command, self-flying fighter jets that coordinate attacks at speeds and altitudes that few human pilots can reach, and central systems run by A.I. that analyze intelligence to recommend airstrike targets quickly.

近年来，许多国家在这一领域展开了悄无声息的较量，包括能够在没有人工指令下识别并打击目标的无人机、能够在人类飞行员几乎难以企及的速度和高度协同攻击的自主战斗机，以及由人工智能驱动的中央系统，用于分析情报并快速推荐空袭目标。

The United States and China, the world’s largest military powers, are at the center of the competition. But the race has widened. Russia and Ukraine, now in their fifth year of war, are looking for every technological advantage. India, Israel, Iran and others are investing in military A.I., while France, Germany, Britain and Poland are rearming amid doubts about the Trump administration’s commitment to NATO.

作为世界上最大的两个军事强国，美中处于这场竞争的中心。但这场竞赛的范围正在扩大。已进入战争第五年的俄罗斯和乌克兰正在寻求一切技术优势。印度、以色列、伊朗等国也在投资军事人工智能，法国、德国、英国和波兰也在重新武装自己——因对特朗普政府在北约承诺上的疑虑。

Each nation is aiming to amass the most advanced technological stockpile in case they need to fight drone against drone and algorithm against algorithm in ways that people cannot match, defense and intelligence officials said.

国防和情报官员表示，每个国家都致力于积累最先进的技术储备，以备在需要时能够以人类无法企及的方式进行无人机对无人机、算法对算法的作战。

Russia, China and the United States are all building A.I. arms as a deterrent and for “mutually assured destruction,” Palmer Luckey, Anduril’s founder, said in an interview in February.

Anduril创始人帕尔默·勒基在2月接受采访时表示，俄罗斯、中国和美国都在制造人工智能武器，既作为威慑手段，也为了实现“相互确保摧毁”。

The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s, when the atomic bomb’s destructive power forced rival nations into an uneasy standoff, leading to more than four decades of nuclear weapons brinkmanship.

这种军备建设被拿来与20世纪40年代核时代的开端做比较。当时，原子弹的巨大破坏力迫使敌对国家进入一种不稳定的对峙状态，并导致了持续四十多年的核武器边缘政策。

But while the implications of nuclear weapons are well understood, A.I.’s military capabilities are just beginning to be known. The technology — which does not need to pause, eat, drink or sleep — is set to upend warfare by making battles faster and more unpredictable, officials said.

核武器的影响已为人们所熟知，而人工智能的军事能力才刚刚开始显现。官员们表示，这项技术无需暂停、无需进食、无需饮水、无需睡眠，它将以更快的速度和更不可预测的方式颠覆战争形态。

Exactly which nation is furthest ahead is unclear. Many programs are in a research and development phase, and budgets are classified. Operatives from China, the United States and Russia watch one another’s factory lines, military displays and weapons deals to deduce what the other is doing, intelligence officials said.

目前尚不清楚哪个国家处于领先位置。许多项目仍处于研发阶段，相关预算也属于机密。情报官员表示，中国、美国和俄罗斯的谍报人员都在密切留意彼此的工厂生产线、军事展示和武器交易，以推断对方的动向。

China and Russia are experimenting with letting A.I. make battlefield decisions on its own, two U.S. officials said. China is developing systems for dozens of autonomous drones to coordinate attacks without human input, while Russia is building Lancet drones that can circle in the sky and autonomously pick targets, they said.

两名美国官员表示，中国和俄罗斯正在试验让人工智能自主做出战场决策。中国正在开发能够让数十架自主无人机在没有人工干预的情况下协同发动攻击的系统，俄罗斯则在建造“柳叶刀”无人机，这种无人机可以在空中盘旋并自主选择目标。

Even as the specifics of the technologies remain veiled, the intentions are clear. In 2017, Mr. Putin declared that whoever leads in A.I. “will become the ruler of the world.” Mr. Xi said in 2024 that technology would be the “main battleground” of geopolitical competition. In January, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed all branches of the U.S. military to adopt A.I., saying they needed to “accelerate like hell.”

即使这些技术的具体细节仍处于保密状态，但其意图已十分明确。普京在2017年曾宣称，谁在人工智能领域领先，“谁就将成为世界的统治者”。习近平在2024年表示，科技创新将成为地缘政治竞争的“主战场”。今年1月，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯要求美国各军种采用人工智能，称他们需要“拼命加速”。

上个月，马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地，国防部长海格塞斯和特朗普总统。海格塞斯已要求军队各军种采用人工智能。

Billions of dollars are being poured into the efforts. The Pentagon requested more than $13 billion for autonomous systems in its latest budget, and has spent billions more over the past decade, though the total is difficult to track because A.I. funding has been spread across many programs.

数十亿美元正被投入到这些努力中。五角大楼在其最新预算中为自主系统申请了超过130亿美元，且在过去十年中已耗资数百亿，不过由于人工智能的资金分散在许多项目中，总金额难以统计。

China, which some researchers said was spending amounts comparable to those of the United States, has used financial incentives to spur private industry to build A.I. capabilities. Russia has invested in drone and autonomy-related programs, analysts said, using the war in Ukraine to test and refine them on the battlefield.

一些研究人员表示，中国的投入规模与美国相当，并通过财政激励措施推动私营企业发展人工智能能力。分析人士称，俄罗斯也在无人机和自主系统方面进行投资，并利用俄乌战争的战场测试和完善这些技术。

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said China had proposed international frameworks for governing military A.I. and called for “a prudent and responsible attitude” toward its development.

中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示，中国已提出规范军事人工智能的国际框架，并呼吁对其发展采取“审慎和负责任的态度”。

The Pentagon and Russia’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.

五角大楼和俄罗斯国防部均未回应置评请求。

The dynamics may resemble the Cold War, but experts cautioned that the A.I. era was different. Start-ups and investors now play a role in the military and are as critical as universities and governments. A.I. technology is becoming widely available, opening the door for countries from Turkey to Pakistan to develop new capabilities. What’s emerging is a grinding innovation race without any obvious endpoint.

这种态势可能类似于冷战，但专家警告称，人工智能时代有所不同。初创公司和投资者如今在军事领域发挥着作用，其重要性不亚于大学和政府。人工智能技术正变得广泛应用，为从土耳其到巴基斯坦等国家开发新能力打开了大门。一场没有明确终点、不断推进的创新竞赛正在形成。

Ethical questions about ceding life-or-death choices to machines are being overtaken by the rush to build. The only major accord on A.I. weaponry between China and the United States was reached in 2024, a nonbinding pledge to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons. Other countries, like Russia, have made no commitments.

将生死抉择交给机器所引发的伦理问题正在被各国竞相研发的浪潮所淹没。中美之间唯一关于人工智能武器的重要协议是在2024年达成的，这是一项不具约束力的承诺，旨在保持人类对核武器使用决策的控制。其他国家，如俄罗斯，则未做出任何承诺。

Some argued that A.I.’s impact would be bigger than any arms race.

有人认为，人工智能的影响将超过任何一场军备竞赛。

“A.I. is a general-purpose technology like electricity. And we don’t talk about an electricity arms race,” said Michael Horowitz, a former Pentagon official involved in autonomous weapons development. “To the extent A.I. is transforming our military, it’s the way that electricity or computers or the airplane did.”

“人工智能是一种通用技术，就像电力一样。我们不会说电力军备竞赛，”曾参与自主武器开发的五角大楼前官员迈克尔·霍洛维茨说。“如果说人工智能正在改变我们的军队，其方式与电力、计算机或飞机当年如出一辙。”

去年9月，在北京天安门广场举行的中国军队阅兵式上，一架作战无人飞行器。

The Buildup Begins

军备建设拉开序幕

In 2016 at an air show in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai, a Chinese supplier flew 67 drones in unison. An animated film separately showed the drones destroying a missile launcher, a demonstration of their capabilities.

2016年，在中国南方城市珠海的一个航展上，一家中国供应商让67架无人机编队飞行。为了展现它们的能力，还用一段动画呈现出这些无人机摧毁导弹发射器的场景。

Russia, too, was building its drone arsenal. In 2014, its military planners set a goal of making 30 percent of its combat power autonomous by 2025. By 2018, the Russian military was testing an unmanned armed vehicle in Syria. While the tank failed, losing its signal and missing targets, it underscored Moscow’s ambitions.

俄罗斯也在建设无人机武器库。2014年，该国的军事规划部门设定了到2025年实现30%作战力量自主化的目标。到2018年，俄罗斯军方在叙利亚测试了一款无人战车。虽然该战车失败了——信号丢失、未能击中目标，但它凸显了莫斯科的雄心。

In Washington, Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, who had previously worked in intelligence at the Defense Department, was assessing whether A.I. could solve a more immediate problem. The U.S. military was collecting so much data — drone footage, satellite imagery, intercepted signals — that nobody could make sense of it all.

在华盛顿，此前曾在国防部从事情报工作的中将杰克·沙纳汉正在评估人工智能能否解决一个更紧迫的问题。美军收集的数据太多了——无人机拍摄的画面、卫星图像、截获的信号，以至于没人能全部理清。

“There was nothing in any of the research labs in the military that were capable of generating results in less than a couple of years,” General Shanahan said. “We had a problem we could not solve without A.I.”

“军方任何研究实验室都无法在短短几年内产生成果，”沙纳汉将军说。“我们有一个不靠人工智能就无法解决的问题。”

In 2017, General Shanahan helped create Project Maven, a Defense Department effort for the military to incorporate A.I. into its systems. One aim was to work with Silicon Valley to build software to swiftly process images like drone footage for intelligence purposes. Google was tapped to help.

2017年，沙纳汉将军协助创建了马文项目(Project Maven)，这是国防部为将人工智能纳入军事系统而做出的努力。其目标之一是与硅谷合作，构建能够快速处理图像（如无人机拍摄的画面）用于情报目的的软件。谷歌曾被选中提供帮助。

But the project quickly ran into hurdles. The Pentagon’s procurement system, built around legacy contractors and long timelines, slowed things down.

但该项目很快遇到障碍。五角大楼的采购体系建立在传统承包商和漫长的交付周期之上，拖慢了进度。

When word spread inside Google about Project Maven, employees also protested, saying a company that had once pledged “Don’t be evil” should not help identify targets for drone strikes. Google eventually backed away from the project.

当马文项目的消息在谷歌内部传开后，员工们也提出了抗议，称一家曾承诺“不作恶”的公司不应帮助识别无人机打击的目标。谷歌最终退出了该项目。

In 2019, Palantir, a data analytics company co-founded by the tech investor Peter Thiel, took over Maven. New defense tech start-ups like Anduril also emerged, supplying the federal government with A.I.-backed sensor towers along the southern U.S. border.

2019年，由科技投资者彼得·蒂尔共同创立的数据分析公司Palantir接管了马文项目。Anduril等新的国防科技初创公司也出现了，它们在美国南部边境沿线向联邦政府提供由人工智能支持的传感器塔。

In China, Beijing pushed commercial tech companies toward defense partnerships in a strategy called “civil-military fusion.” Private firms were drawn into military procurement, joint research and other work with defense institutions. Companies working on drones and unmanned boats found growing military demand for their technologies.

在中国，北京通过军民融合战略推动商业科技公司与国防部门合作。私营企业被纳入军事采购、联合研究以及与国防机构的其他合作项目中。从事无人机和无人艇的公司发现，其技术在军事领域的需求日益增长。

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 turned theory into reality.

2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，将理论变成了现实。

Outgunned, outspent and outnumbered, Ukraine held off Russia with an improvised arsenal of cheap technology. Hobbyist racing drones were used to attack Russian positions on the front lines, eventually becoming more lethal than artillery and, in some cases, gaining autonomous capabilities. Remote-controlled boats kept Russia’s Black Sea fleet pinned down.

在武器、经费和人数均处于劣势的情况下，乌克兰依靠廉价技术拼凑而成的武器库挡住了俄罗斯的进攻。业余爱好者使用的竞速无人机被用来攻击前线的俄罗斯阵地，其杀伤力最终超过了火炮，在某些情况下甚至具备自主作战能力。遥控艇则让俄罗斯黑海舰队陷入困境。

Russia adapted as well. Its Lancet drone, which was initially piloted by humans, has incorporated autonomous targeting features.

俄罗斯也进行了调整。其最初由人工操控的“柳叶刀”无人机已集成自主目标锁定功能。

俄罗斯士兵在乌克兰某未公开地点搬运一架“柳叶刀”无人机。这张照片截取自俄罗斯国防部新闻处8月发布的视频。

“The four years of brutality on the battlefield in Ukraine has served as a laboratory for the world,” said Mr. Horowitz, the former Pentagon official.

“乌克兰战场四年的残酷厮杀已成为全世界的实验场，”前五角大楼官员霍洛维茨说。

In recent months, Ukraine began sharing its troves of battlefield data with Palantir and other firms so A.I. systems can better learn to fight wars.

最近几个月，乌克兰开始将其海量战场数据与Palantir等公司共享，以便人工智能系统更好地学习如何作战。

Across Europe, where governments are aiming to diminish their reliance on the American military, the lessons from Ukraine resounded. In February, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Poland said they would develop a joint air defense system to guard against drones.

在欧洲，各国政府正努力减少对美国军队的依赖，乌克兰的教训产生了强烈共鸣。今年2月，德国、法国、意大利、英国和波兰表示，他们将共同开发一套防空系统，以防御无人机威胁。

China also advanced. At the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, Norinco, one of the country’s main defense manufacturers, revealed multiple weapons with A.I. capabilities. One of its systems showed an entire brigade, including armored vehicles and drones, which were controlled and operated by A.I.

中国也在推进。2024年珠海航展上，中国主要国防制造商之一的北方工业展示了多款具备人工智能能力的武器。其中一个系统展示了一整个由人工智能控制和操作的旅级单位，包括装甲车辆和无人机。

Another craft, unveiled by the state-run Aviation Industry Corporation of China, was a 16-ton jet-powered drone designed to serve as a flying aircraft carrier that could deploy dozens of smaller drones midflight.

另一款由中国航空工业集团推出的飞行器是一架16吨重的喷气动力无人机，设计用于充当飞行航母，可在飞行中部署数十架小型无人机。

2024年珠海航展上亮相的一款能够发射小型无人机群的无人机母舰。

‘Left Click, Right Click’

“点击左键、点击右键”

A week after American and Israeli forces struck Iran in February, a senior Pentagon official gave a glimpse into what computerized warfare now looks like at a conference livestreamed by Palantir.

今年2月美以联军对伊朗发动打击一周后，一位五角大楼高级官员在Palantir直播的一场会议上展示了当今计算机化战争的真实面貌。

A satellite feed showed a warehouse. With the click of a mouse, an officer selected a row of white trucks parked outside to target in real time. In seconds, the A.I. software suggested a weapon, calculated fuel and ammunition needs, weighed the cost and generated a strike plan.

卫星画面显示了一个仓库。一名军官点击鼠标，实时选中了停在外面的一排白色卡车作为打击目标。几秒钟内，人工智能软件就推荐了武器、计算了燃料和弹药需求、权衡了行动成本，并生成了打击计划。

It was the present-day version of Project Maven, which General Shanahan had started and was now run by Palantir and powered by commercial A.I. The system analyzed intelligence from various sources, generated target lists ranked by priority and recommended weapons, all but eliminating the lag between identifying a target and destroying it.

这就是沙纳汉将军当年启动、如今由Palantir运营并由商用人工智能驱动的马文项目的现代版本。该系统分析来自不同来源的情报，生成按优先级排序的目标清单并推荐武器，几乎消除了从发现目标到摧毁目标之间的延迟。

Embedded with a military version of Claude, the chatbot made by the A.I. firm Anthropic, Maven helped generate thousands of targets in the opening weeks of the Iran campaign, a pace that Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, attributed in part to “advanced A.I. tools.”

马文项目嵌入了人工智能公司Anthropic开发的军用版聊天机器人Claude，在伊朗行动的最初几周，该系统帮助生成了数以千计的目标，美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将将这一速度部分归功于“先进的人工智能工具”。

Cameron Stanley, the Defense Department’s chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, who spoke at Palantir’s conference, said that what Maven was doing was “revolutionary.” Human involvement amounted to “left click, right click, left click,” he said.

出席Palantir会议并演讲的国防部首席数字与人工智能官卡梅伦·斯坦利表示，马文项目正在做的工作是“革命性的”。他说，人类的参与仅限于“点击左键、点击右键、点击左键”。

The claims about Maven’s abilities might be overstated and much of the American advantage came from the scale of data flowing in and the skills of the people using it, said Emelia Probasco, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

乔治城大学安全与新兴技术中心高级研究员埃梅利亚·普罗巴斯科表示，关于马文项目能力的说法可能被夸大了，美国的优势很大程度上来自数据流的规模，以及使用这些工具的人员技能。

“It’s not rocket science,” she said. “I suspect that China already has something like it.”

“这不是火箭科学，”她说，“我怀疑中国已经有了类似的东西。”

In a recent report analyzing thousands of People’s Liberation Army procurement documents, Ms. Probasco found that China was building systems that mirrored American ones. In one case, China was trying to replicate the Joint Fires Network, an American program set up to link sensors and weapons globally so a drone on one side of the world could cue a strike from the other.

在最近一份分析数以千计中国人民解放军采购文件的报告中，普罗巴斯科发现，中国正在建设与美国类似的系统。其中一个例子显示，中国正试图复制“联合火力网络”，这是一个旨在全球连接传感器和武器的美国项目，让一架无人机可以在世界一侧为另一侧的打击提供指引。

In some areas, China clearly leads. Its manufacturing dominance means it can produce autonomous weapons at a scale the Pentagon cannot match.

在某些领域，中国显然处于领先地位。其制造业优势意味着它能够以五角大楼无法匹敌的规模生产自主武器。

Inside the Trump administration, the push for A.I. weapons has taken on an almost evangelical fervor. Last month, the Pentagon labeled Anthropic a security risk, partly because the company wanted to limit its technology’s use for automated weapons.

在特朗普政府内部，推动人工智能武器的热情已近乎狂热。上个月，五角大楼将Anthropic列为安全风险，部分原因在于该公司希望限制其技术在自动武器中的应用。

“We will win the A.I. race,” Jacob Helberg, the under secretary of state for economic affairs, said last month at the Hill & Valley Forum, an annual conference in Washington, which he co-founded to bridge Silicon Valley and the government.

“我们将赢得人工智能竞赛，”负责经济事务的副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格上个月在由他共同创立的“国会山与硅谷论坛”上表示，该年度会议旨在连接硅谷与政府。

2024年“国会山与硅谷论坛”上，美国国务院负责经济事务的副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格与Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普。

At the conference, tech executives, investors and government officials cheered speakers who called for tech companies to give the military unfettered access to A.I.

在会议上，科技高管、投资者和政府官员对那些呼吁科技公司向军方无限制开放人工智能的演讲者报以热烈掌声。

Anduril’s Mr. Luckey argued that the A.I. arms buildup might prevent major wars. The logic mirrored the Cold War: If both sides knew what the machines could do, neither would risk finding out.

Anduril的勒基认为，人工智能军备建设可能防止大规模战争。其逻辑与冷战类似：如果双方都清楚这种机器的能力，就没有人愿意冒险去验证。

“Conflicts between superpowers will similarly deteriorate if you can build the things that deter warfare effectively enough,” he said.

“如果能制造出足以有效遏制战争的武器，超级大国之间的冲突也会随之缓和，道理是类似的，”他说。

Yet deterrence assumes rationality, while A.I. weapons are designed to move faster than human reason. In exercises dating to 2020, researchers explored how autonomous systems could accelerate escalation and erode human control — with some alarming results.

然而，威慑的前提是理性，而人工智能武器的设计初衷却是超越人类理性的反应速度。在2020年以来的演习中，研究人员探讨了自主系统如何加速升级并削弱人类控制——结果令人担忧。

In one scenario, a system operated by the United States and Japan responded to a missile launch from North Korea by autonomously firing an unexpected counterattack.

在一个场景中，由美国和日本操作的系统在应对朝鲜导弹发射时，自主发动了出人意料的反击。

“The speed of autonomous systems led to inadvertent escalation,” said the report by analysts at RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization that works with the military.

兰德公司分析师的报告称，“自主系统的速度导致了无意的升级。”

General Shanahan, who retired from the military in 2020 and is now a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank, said the race he had helped start kept him up at night. Governments must set clear boundaries before the technology outruns their control, he said.

2020年从军方退役、现为智库新美国安全中心研究员的沙纳汉将军表示，自己曾参与推动的这场竞赛让他夜不能寐。他说，各国政府必须在技术发展超出控制之前设定明确的界限。

退役中将、前联合人工智能中心主任杰克·沙纳汉表示，人工智能将“进一步强调越来越快地行动”。

“There is a risk of an escalatory spiral where we’re in danger of fielding untested, unsafe and unproven systems if we’re not careful, because we each feel like the other side is hiding something from us,” he said.

“存在升级螺旋的风险——如果我们不小心，我们就有可能部署未经测试、不安全、未经证实的系统，因为双方都觉得对方在隐瞒什么，”他说。

Vice President JD Vance summed up the failure of 21 hours of negotiations with Iran in one sentence: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”

副总统万斯用一句话总结了与伊朗长达21小时谈判的失败：“他们选择不接受我们的条件。”

To Iranian officials, that line reflected their biggest problem with the talks, too: The United States, they argue, had not come to negotiate.

在伊朗官员看来，这句话恰恰也道出了他们对此次谈判最大的不满：他们认为，美国根本不是来谈判的。

“Bingo,” Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who led Iran’s negotiators in the nuclear deal negotiations with Washington and Europe in 2015, highlighting the comment from Mr. Vance, wrote on X. “No negotiations — at least with Iran — will succeed based on ‘our/your terms.’”

伊朗前外长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫曾在2015年带领伊朗谈判团队与美欧达成伊核协议，他在X平台上特意引用了万斯这句话，并写道：“一语中的，任何谈判——至少是和伊朗的谈判——都不可能基于‘我们的/你们的条件’而成功。”

“We are open to dialogue and negotiation,” Medhi Tabatabei, a deputy to Iran’s president, wrote on social media on Sunday. “But we do not submit to force.”

伊朗总统副手迈赫迪·塔巴塔拜伊周日在社交媒体上写道：“我们对于对话与谈判持开放态度，但我们绝不屈服于武力。”

Both Washington and Tehran sent their mediators to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday asserting that they had the upper hand. And both left those talks still thinking they had the edge, even as they left room open for diplomacy.

周六，美伊双方均派调解人前往巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡参加谈判，双方都声称自己占据上风。谈判结束后，双方仍然都认为自己握有优势，但同时也为后续外交接触留下了空间。

U.S. officials see their advantage in the devastating damage they have inflicted on Iran — killing most of the leaders who ran the country before the war, and hammering its military bases and infrastructure. On Sunday, Mr. Vance told reporters that “we’ve made very clear what our red lines are” and “what things we’re willing to accommodate them on.”

美国官员认为，他们的优势在于对伊朗造成了毁灭性打击——炸死了战前执掌国家的大部分领导人，并重创了伊朗的军事基地和基础设施。周日，万斯对记者表示：“我们已经非常明确地划定了红线”，并且“说明了我们愿意在哪些方面做出让步”。

副总统万斯周六抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡，准备与伊朗方面举行会谈。

Iran’s government sees itself not only as victorious for having survived that onslaught, but also for having emerged with a new and strategic card. Since the war began, it has asserted control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping corridor — and it is not willing to give up that leverage now.

伊朗政府则认为，自己不仅因为在这场猛攻中幸存下来而取胜，还获得了一张全新的致胜战略王牌。自战争爆发以来，伊朗已经掌控了霍尔木兹海峡这一关键石油运输通道的通行权，而且现在绝不打算放弃这一筹码。

“We will not stop for a moment in working to secure the achievements of the last forty days,” Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of Parliament and the head of the negotiating delegation, wrote in a statement on social media on Sunday.

伊朗议会议长、谈判代表团团长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫将军周日在社交媒体上发表声明称：“我们将一刻不停地努力，捍卫过去40天取得的成果。”

Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, framed the leveraging of Hormuz as a new chapter in Iran’s history of using its geography against foreign attackers. He compared Iranian forces’ ability to block maritime traffic in the strait to the ancient Persians’ use of Abu al-Hayat, a pass in the Zagros Mountains, to repel Alexander the Great.

伊朗最高领袖高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提将利用霍尔木兹海峡作为筹码描述为伊朗利用地理优势抵御外来侵略者历史的新篇章。他将伊朗军队封锁海峡海上交通的能力比作古代波斯人利用扎格罗斯山脉的阿布·哈亚特隘口击退亚历山大大帝。

“Just as the “Abu al-Hayat Pass” once symbolized the blocking of outsiders,” he wrote on social media, “today the Strait of Hormuz is firmly in our hands.”

他在社交媒体上写道：“正如当年的阿布·哈亚特隘口象征着阻挡外来者，如今霍尔木兹海峡牢牢掌握在我们手中。”

Regional observers say the diplomatic impasse in Islamabad reflects a bigger geopolitical struggle between the two foes.

地区观察人士表示，伊斯兰堡的外交僵局反映了这两个宿敌之间更宏大的地缘政治博弈。

“This isn’t just a dispute over who was victorious — it’s a dispute over the meaning of the war itself,” said Ramzy Mardini, founder of Geopol Labs, a Middle East-based geopolitical risk advisory firm.

“这不仅仅是一场关于谁获胜的争论，更是关于这场战争本身意义的争论，”总部位于中东的地缘政治风险咨询公司Geopol Labs创始人拉姆齐·马尔迪尼表示。

“For Tehran, this is a war that revises the regional order — one that redefines the rules and allows it to break out of the constraints and sanctions imposed on it.” Washington, he said, “still sees itself as enforcing an existing hegemonic order that others must conform to.”

“对德黑兰而言，这是一场重塑地区秩序的战争——它重新定义了规则，让伊朗得以摆脱强加在自己身上的种种限制与制裁，”他说。而华盛顿“仍将自己视为现有霸权秩序的执行者，要求其他国家必须遵守这一秩序”。

The idea that a day of diplomacy would unlock decades of entrenched issues was always a long shot. Iranians were already embittered by President Trump’s withdrawal in 2018 from their previous nuclear deal with Washington. Before the war in February, Mr. Trump’s mediators pressed Tehran to relinquish its uranium stockpiles and halt uranium enrichment. The various rounds of talks went nowhere.

指望一天的外交斡旋就能解决数十年根深蒂固的问题本来就是不切实际的幻想。伊朗人早已因特朗普2018年退出美伊此前达成的核协议而心怀怨恨。今年2月战争爆发前，特朗普的调解人就曾施压德黑兰，要求其放弃铀储备并停止铀浓缩活动。多轮谈判均无果而终。

“We should not have expected to reach an agreement in a single session from the outset,” said Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman of Iran’s Foreign Ministry. “No one had such expectations.”

伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加伊表示：“我们从一开始就不该指望能在一次会谈中达成协议。没有人抱有这样的期待。”

This round of negotiations are even thornier, now that Iran seems determined not to give ground over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran not only seeks to control the waterway, but Iranian politicians have also signaled they hope to extract money from it. If Iran can collect tolls from vessels going through the strait, the money could help finance the enormous reconstruction efforts that lie ahead.

本轮谈判之所以更加棘手，是因为伊朗似乎决心在霍尔木兹海峡问题上寸步不让。伊朗不仅寻求掌控这条水道，其政界人士还暗示希望从中获取经济收益。如果伊朗能向过往船只收取通行费，这笔资金将有助于支撑未来规模庞大的重建工作。

周日，阿曼海岸外的霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗决心在该海峡问题上绝不退让。

A simple return to the era of free navigation before the war is not in the cards if Iran’s leaders get their way, said Sasan Karimi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran and the former deputy vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government.

德黑兰大学政治学家、前伊朗政府代理战略副总统萨桑·卡里米表示，如果伊朗领导人如愿以偿，那么单纯地回到战前自由通航的时代是不可能的。

And yet Iranian negotiators say the United States’ aims went even beyond a return to that status quo, Mr. Karimi said, to demanding shared management of the strait.

卡里米说，然而伊朗谈判代表表示，美国的目标甚至超出了恢复战前原状的范畴，进而要求共同管理霍尔木兹海峡。

“It is nonsense that America would have management of the Hormuz Strait,” he said. “Iran is not going to deliver such concessions to Donald Trump that he couldn’t grasp in the war.”

“美国要管理霍尔木兹海峡，这简直是无稽之谈，”他说。“伊朗绝不会向唐纳德·特朗普做出这种他靠战争都没能得到的让步。”

“Iran showed already it is not to be defeated easily — this is not an easy game like Venezuela,” he added, referring to the quick U.S. operation in January to remove the Venezuelan president and assert its own terms on the country’s remaining leaders.

“伊朗已经证明，它不是那么容易被打败的——这不是像委内瑞拉那样容易搞定的事，”他还说。他指的是今年1月美国迅速采取行动推翻委内瑞拉总统，并向该国剩余领导人强加自己条件的行动。

Mr. Trump said on Sunday on his social media that his next move is to impose a U.S. naval blockade on Iran in the strait. “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he wrote. “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”

特朗普周日在其社交媒体上表示，他的下一步行动是在海峡对伊朗实施美国海上封锁。他写道：“任何向我们或和平船只开火的伊朗人，都将被炸得粉身碎骨！绝不允许伊朗从这种非法敲诈行为中获利。”

That will pose new risks for the global economy, said Ali Vaez, the head of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, a think tank. Iran will probably urge its regional ally, the Houthi forces in Yemen, to block Bab al-Mandeb, another crucial shipping route at the southern tip of the Red Sea.

智库国际危机组织伊朗项目负责人阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这将给全球经济带来新的风险。伊朗很可能会敦促其地区盟友也门胡塞武装封锁红海南端另一条关键航运通道曼德海峡。

And if diplomacy ultimately fails and fighting resumes, Iranian officials are banking that they can get Mr. Trump to blink over the global economic chaos before they are exhausted by U.S. military blows.

如果外交最终失败，战事重启，伊朗官员指望在被美国军事打击拖垮之前，全球经济混乱会迫使特朗普先做出让步。

Current U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has retained a significant amount of its weapons stockpiles and has been able to dig out its missile bunkers and silos faster than anticipated.

美国当前的情报评估显示，伊朗仍保留了大量武器储备，且清理修复导弹掩体和发射井的速度超出预期。

“They could hold their ground for another two months, if not more. And economically, I think there is no threshold for how much more pain the Iranians are willing to tolerate,” Mr. Vaez said.

瓦埃兹说：“他们至少还能再坚守两个月。而在经济层面，我认为伊朗人愿意承受的痛苦没有上限。”

“The question really is: Is the Trump administration willing to pay the high economic price?”

“真正的问题是：特朗普政府是否愿意为此付出高昂的经济代价？”

The U.S. military said on Sunday that it would blockade any ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas,” but said it would allow other ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Trump had said the United States would fully block the economically vital waterway.

美国军方周日表示，将对“进出伊朗港口及沿海地区”的所有船只实施封锁，但同时表示将允许其他船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。此前数小时，特朗普总统曾表示美国将全面封锁这条具有重要经济意义的水道。

The blockade on Iranian ports would begin on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern time, U.S. Central Command said in a statement posted on social media, adding that U.S. “forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

美国中央司令部在社交媒体上发布声明称，对伊朗港口的封锁将于美东时间周一上午10点开始。声明还表示，美军“不会阻碍往返于非伊朗港口的船只通过霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由”。

Though the statement said the move was “in accordance with the President’s proclamation,” it appeared to soften Mr. Trump’s earlier vow to block “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” In an interview with Fox News in the morning, the president had reiterated it would be a “complete blockade,” and said traffic through the strait was “all or nothing.”

尽管声明称此举是“根据总统公告”采取的，但其措辞似乎缓和了特朗普此前“封锁任何试图进入或离开霍尔木兹海峡的船只”的表态。当天早些时候，特朗普在接受福克斯新闻采访时重申，这将是一次“全面封锁”，并表示通过海峡的交通“要么全部允许，要么全部禁止”。

Mr. Trump’s announcement had plunged an already brittle truce between Iran and the United States into further uncertainty after Saturday’s marathon peace talks between top Iranian and American leaders in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough.

在伊朗和美国领导人周末于巴基斯坦举行的马拉松式和平谈判未能取得突破后，特朗普的这一宣布令本就脆弱的伊美停火协议不确定性进一步加剧。

An adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader, warned that Iran had “large, untouched levers” to counter any naval blockade. Its top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, directly addressed American consumers: “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”

伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的一名顾问警告称，伊朗仍握有“尚未动用的重大手段”来应对任何海上封锁。伊朗首席谈判代表、议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫则直接向美国消费者喊话：“很快你们就会怀念每加仑4到5美元的油价了。”

Iran has choked off shipping in the strait — through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil normally flows — since the war started, allowing through only its own ships and a few others. As a result, global oil prices had soared by more than 50 percent during the conflict, and the United States had demanded that Iran reopen the strait and conditioned the truce on Tehran doing so.

自战争爆发以来，伊朗已封锁了海峡的航运——正常情况下全球约20%的石油经此通道运输——只允许本国船只及少数其他国家的船只通过。其结果是，冲突期间全球油价飙升了50%以上，美国一直要求伊朗重新开放海峡，并将此作为停火的条件之一。

Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. negotiating team, said early Sunday that the talks in Islamabad — the highest-level face-to-face encounter between U.S. and Iranian leaders since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — had ended with Iran choosing “not to accept our terms.” The chief Iranian negotiator, Mr. Ghalibaf, said on social media that the United States had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation” in this round of talks.

由美国副总统JD·万斯率领的美方谈判团队周日早些时候表示，在伊斯兰堡举行的谈判——这是自1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命以来美伊领导人之间级别最高的一次面对面会晤——以伊朗选择“不接受我们的条件”告终。伊朗首席谈判代表加利巴夫在社交媒体上表示，美国在本轮谈判中“未能赢得伊朗代表团的信任”。

Analysts said the issues dividing the two countries were so complex — and their differences so entrenched — that cinching a deal in a single round of talks had been highly unlikely. The key differences center on the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, frozen Iranian revenues held abroad, and the Strait of Hormuz.

分析人士表示，两国之间的分歧非常复杂，而且根深蒂固，因此在一轮会谈中就达成协议的可能性极低。关键分歧集中在近900磅高浓缩铀的处置、伊朗在海外的冻结收入以及霍尔木兹海峡问题上。

Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Ghalibaf appeared to rule out additional negotiations. Mr. Trump told Fox News that his threats had forced Iran “to the bargaining table and they haven’t left,” adding that he believed the United States would eventually get “everything” it wanted from Iran.

特朗普和卡利巴夫似乎都没有排除进一步谈判的可能性。特朗普告诉福克斯新闻，他的威胁迫使伊朗“来到了谈判桌前，而且他们还没有离开”，并称他相信美国最终会从伊朗那里得到“全部”想要的东西。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们正在关注的其他内容：

• Economic woes: Oil prices rose on Sunday after the peace talks failed to produce a deal. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose more than 7 percent to around $102 a barrel. Mr. Trump earlier in the day downplayed the economic effects of the war, which have been a political liability. Asked on Fox News if oil and gas prices could fall by the time the midterm elections are held in November, he said they “could be the same or maybe a little bit higher” — an indication that the economic turmoil of the war could linger for months.

经济困境：在和平谈判未能达成协议后，周日油价上涨。全球基准油价布伦特原油价格上涨超过7%，至每桶约102美元。特朗普当天早些时候淡化了战争对经济的影响——已经成为了是他的政治负担。当福克斯新闻问及11月中期选举时，油价能否降下来，他表示“可能持平，或许还会略高一些”——这表明战争带来的经济动荡可能会持续数月。

• Israel and Lebanon: Israel was not involved in the weekend negotiations and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided mentioning them in an address on Saturday evening as he faces criticism at home over the cease-fire with Iran. Israel has kept up deadly attacks on southern Lebanon, including on Sunday morning, according to Lebanon’s state media. Iran had accused Israel of breaking the cease-fire by continuing to attack in Lebanon, leading Mr. Trump to ask Israel to rein in its assault. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are expected to meet in Washington next week for rare direct talks.

以色列与黎巴嫩：以色列未参与周末的谈判，内塔尼亚胡总理在周六晚的讲话中也对相关内容避而不提，目前他正因与伊朗停火问题在国内面临批评。据黎巴嫩国家媒体报道，以色列持续对黎巴嫩南部发动致命打击，包括周日早晨的袭击。伊朗此前指责以色列继续在黎巴嫩发动攻击违反了停火协议，这也促使特朗普要求以色列收敛攻势。以色列和黎巴嫩驻美大使预计将于下周在华盛顿举行罕见的直接会谈。

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Saturday said that 2,020 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including 357 in a wave of Israeli strikes on Wednesday. In attacks attributed to Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. At least 22 people had been killed in Israel as of Sunday, as well as 12 Israeli soldiers fighting in Lebanon. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.

死亡人数：人权活动家通讯社表示，截至周三，伊朗已有至少1701名平民死亡，其中包括254名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部周六表示，在以色列与真主党最近一轮冲突中已有2020人丧生，其中357人死于周三以色列发起的一系列空袭。在归因于伊朗的袭击中，海湾国家至少有32人死亡。截至周日，以色列已有至少22人死亡，另有12名以军士兵在黎巴嫩作战中阵亡。美国方面的死亡人数为13名军人。

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, a lodestar for MAGA culture warriors and right-wing populists in Europe, conceded defeat on Sunday in a general election, breaking the momentum of a global nationalist revival promoted by President Trump.

周日，被MAGA文化斗士和欧洲右翼民粹主义者奉为指路明灯的匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班承认败选，打断了特朗普总统推动的全球民族主义复兴的势头。

In a surprisingly early and gracious concession speech in Budapest, Mr. Orban congratulated the opposition saying, “The responsibility and opportunity to govern were not given to us.” But, he also made a vow: “We are not giving up. Never, never, never.”

在布达佩斯，欧尔班出人意料地早早发表了败选演讲，而且语气谦和。他向反对派表示祝贺，说道：“治理国家的责任和机会没有交给我们。”但他同时发誓：“我们不会放弃。永不，永不，永不。”

His defeat paves the way for Peter Magyar, a former Orban loyalist and the leader of the main opposition party, to take over as Hungary’s prime minister once the newly elected Parliament meets.

他的失败为彼得·毛焦尔的当选铺平了道路。这位前欧尔班忠实支持者和主要反对党领袖将在新一届议会召开后接任匈牙利总理。

“We have done it,” Mr. Magyar told a cheering crowd gathered with flags on the bank of the River Danube. “We have liberated Hungary and have taken back our country.” Sunday’s vote was widely seen as showdown between friends and foes of liberal democracy, a cause that Mr. Orban has battled against for years to applause from his fans in the United States, Europe and Latin America. The race was closely watched by the Trump administration and the Kremlin, both of which wanted Mr. Orban to win and both of which offered support in his campaign.

“我们做到了，”毛焦尔对多瑙河畔手持国旗欢呼的人群说。“我们解放了匈牙利，夺回了我们的国家。”周日的投票被广泛视为自由主义民主的支持者与反对者之间的对决。多年来，欧尔班一直与自由主义民主为敌，并因此赢得了美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲粉丝的掌声。这场选举受到特朗普政府和克里姆林宫的密切关注，双方都希望欧尔班获胜，并在竞选中向他提供了支持。

The implications of the outcome extend far beyond Hungary’s borders. The next prime minister may help alter the course of the war in Ukraine, a neighbor that Mr. Orban has cast as an enemy of Hungary, and affect European security. And the results will be looked at by populists around the world who view the Hungarian leader as a model of success and of pugnacious defiance of the mainstream.

选举结果的影响远远超出匈牙利国界。新总理可能会改变乌克兰战争的走向——欧尔班曾将这个邻国描绘成匈牙利的敌人，并影响欧洲安全。世界各地的民粹主义者也将关注这一结果，他们视这位匈牙利领导人为成功的典范，和强硬反抗主流的榜样。

After the results, large crowds of mostly young people thronged the banks of the River Danube in front of the Parliament Building, cheering and waving Hungarian flags. Many were stunned by the speed and scale of the defeat of Mr. Orban, whose party won the four previous elections easily.

结果公布后，以年轻人为主的人群涌向多瑙河河岸的议会大厦前，欢呼并挥舞匈牙利国旗。许多人对欧尔班迅速且全面的失败感到震惊——他的政党在此前四次选举中都轻松获胜。

周日，在布达佩斯庆祝活动中燃放的烟花。

With 66 percent of votes counted, Mr. Magyar’s opposition party was on course to win 137 seats — more than a two-thirds majority. Mr. Orban’s party, Fidesz, was expected to win just 55.

在计票66%的情况下，毛焦尔领导的反对党有望赢得137个席位——超过三分之二多数。欧尔班的政党青民盟预计仅获得55席。

Shortly before polls closed, the electoral authorities said that more than 77 percent of registered voters had cast ballots, the highest turnout in a Hungarian election since the collapse of Communism in 1989 and the start of democracy.

投票结束前不久，选举管理部门宣布，超过77%的登记选民投了票，这是1989年共产主义崩溃、匈牙利开启民主以来的最高投票率。

“Thank You Hungary!” Mr. Magyar said in a brief message on Facebook, reporting that Mr. Orban had called to congratulate him.

“谢谢你，匈牙利！”毛焦尔在Facebook上发布简短消息称，并透露欧尔班已打电话向他表示祝贺。

During his 16 years in power, Mr. Orban remade Hungary in his own image, eliminating many checks and balances by stacking the judicial system and nominally independent agencies with Fidesz loyalists, and taking control of most news media outlets. He also worked to export his model of “illiberal democracy,” promoting himself as an invincible guru for followers across Europe and elsewhere.

在执政16年间，欧尔班按照自己的形象重塑了匈牙利。他通过将司法系统和名义上独立的机构塞满青民盟忠实支持者，消除了许多制衡机制，并控制了大部分新闻媒体。他还努力输出自己的“非自由主义式民主”模式，将自己塑造成欧洲乃至世界各地追随者心目中战无不胜的导师。

Long a thorn in the side of E.U. officials in Brussels, Mr. Orban has consistently blocked European assistance to Ukraine, worked to water down sanctions on Russia and presented Ukraine, not Russia, as the principal threat to Europe’s security.

长期以来，欧尔班一直是布鲁塞尔欧盟官员的眼中钉。他一贯阻挠欧盟对乌克兰的援助，努力弱化对俄罗斯的制裁，并将乌克兰而非俄罗斯描述为欧洲安全的主要威胁。

周日，议会选举部分结果公布后，反对党蒂萨党领袖彼得·毛焦尔在布达佩斯。

Those positions made him an invaluable ally for the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. Mr. Putin, hoping to help Mr. Orban’s chances in the election, assured him last month that Hungary could rely on steady deliveries of Russian oil and gas despite disruptions to global energy supplies caused by the war in Iran.

这些立场使他成为俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京的宝贵盟友。上个月，为帮助欧尔班提升胜选机会，普京向他保证，尽管伊朗战争导致全球能源供应中断，匈牙利仍可依靠稳定的俄罗斯石油和天然气供应。

Despite his country’s small size and population of fewer than 10 million people, Mr. Orban, 62, has played an outsize role on the world stage, inspiring and, in some cases, funding like-minded political forces abroad. He became the standard-bearer for right-wing politicians committed to “family values” and “Western civilization” against what he has denounced as degenerate, multicultural liberals.

尽管匈牙利国土面积小、人口不足1000万，但现年62岁的欧尔班在国际舞台上扮演了超乎寻常的角色。他激励并在某些情况下资助国外志同道合的政治力量。他成为右翼政客的旗手，这些政客致力于捍卫“家庭价值观”和“西方文明”，反对他所谴责的堕落的多元文化自由主义。

While sharing some of Mr. Orban’s views on the importance of national sovereignty and the dangers of “woke ideology,” the opposition leader, Mr. Magyar, a lawmaker in the European Parliament and divorced father of three, won votes for Tisza by promising drastic change, though he was often vague on the specifics.

虽然反对党领袖毛焦尔在国家主权重要性和“觉醒意识形态”的危险性上与欧尔班有一些共同观点，但他通过承诺彻底变革为蒂萨党赢得选票，尽管他在具体细节上常常语焉不详。毛焦尔是欧洲议会议员，离异，有三个孩子。

On one issue he has been unequivocal. Mr. Magyar, 45, promised voters a clean break with the endemic corruption that has enriched the prime minister’s family and friends and helped saddle Hungary with the slowest-growing economy in the region. Hungary, according to an annual ranking by Transparency International, is the most corrupt country in the European Union.

在一个问题上，他态度明确。45岁的毛焦尔向选民承诺，与长期存在的腐败彻底决裂——这种腐败让总理的家人和朋友致富，却使匈牙利成为该地区经济增长最慢的国家。根据透明国际的年度排名，匈牙利是欧盟中最腐败的国家。

Eager to reach beyond Budapest liberals, who have loathed Mr. Orban for years, Mr. Magyar stayed far away from issues dear to progressives like L.G.B.T. rights. He campaigned mainly on his biggest asset: he is not Viktor Orban. The prospect of change, no matter in what direction, underpinned much of his support.

为了触及布达佩斯自由派——他们多年来一直厌恶欧尔班——以外的群体，毛焦尔刻意远离进步派所珍视的议题，如LGBT权利。他的竞选主要依靠最大的资产：他不是维克托·欧尔班。无论变革方向如何，“改变”的前景支撑了他的大部分支持。

The election delivered a major blow to Europe’s longest-serving government leader, and to those who look to him for inspiration and funding.

此次选举对欧洲任职时间最长的政府领导人，以及那些视他为鼓舞和资金来源的人，是一次重大打击。

Despite pressure from the European Union, whose rules he has persistently defied, Mr. Orban has been dogged in pursuing the goal he set in 2014 of “constructing in Hungary an illiberal state, a non-liberal state.”

尽管不断受到欧盟的压力——欧尔班向来拒不遵守其规则，他仍在顽固地追求2014年设定的目标：“在匈牙利建设一个反自由主义的、非自由主义的国家。”

Since then, Hungary has slid steadily down global rankings for personal and economic liberty, corruption and press freedom, becoming the first member of the European Union to drop from “free” to “partly free” in a 2019 ranking compiled by Freedom House.

自那以来，匈牙利在个人自由、经济自由、腐败和新闻自由的全球排名中持续下滑。2019年，自由之家发布的排名中，匈牙利成为第一个从“自由”降为“部分自由”的欧盟成员国。

Hungary, under Fidesz, established a host of research centers and other bodies offering well-paid work to American and other foreign conservatives who say they have been discriminated against in their home countries because of their views. It also hosted an annual conference in Budapest of the U.S. Conservative Political Action Committee, a fiesta of “anti-woke” speeches by right-wing politicians and pundits from around the world.

在青民盟执政下，匈牙利设立了一系列研究中心和其他机构，为那些声称因观点而在本国遭受歧视的美国和其他外国保守派提供高薪职位。它还在布达佩斯主办美国保守派政治行动委员会的年度会议，成为来自世界各地的右翼政客和评论员发表“反觉醒”演讲的盛会。

Mr. Magyar, speaking in Budapest soon after polls closed, declared himself “cautiously optimistic,” despite what he said had been “thousands of reports” of election tampering.

投票结束后不久，毛焦尔在布达佩斯发表讲话，称自己“谨慎乐观”，尽管他表示收到了“数千起”选举舞弊的报告。

“Even in the smallest township,” he said, “people have seen that this cruel, inhumane power is finished and Hungary will once again become a free country.”

“即使在最小的乡镇，”他说，“人们也看到，这个残酷、不人道的政权已经结束，匈牙利将再次成为一个自由的国家。”

More than three years of falling wholesale prices in China suddenly reversed in March as the rising cost of oil and other commodities began to affect a range of industries.

随着石油和其他大宗商品成本上升开始影响多个行业，中国批发价格连续三年多的跌势在3月份突然逆转。

Producer prices — mainly those charged by factories for wholesale purchases — climbed last month compared to a year earlier for the first time since September 2022, according to government data released on Friday.

根据周五发布的政府数据，生产者价格——主要是工厂针对批发采购制定的价格——上个月同比上涨，这是自2022年9月以来的首次。

The war in the Middle East, which started on Feb. 28 with strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, leading Iran to retaliate by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz, has prompted higher prices and shortages of energy and other commodities. For example, Persian Gulf exports previously accounted for nearly a tenth of the world’s aluminum.

在于2月28日爆发的中东战争中，美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击，导致伊朗以实际关闭霍尔木兹海峡的方式进行报复，从而推高了能源和其他大宗商品的价格，并造成短缺。例如，全球铝产量的近十分之一原本来自波斯湾的出口。

While governments in many countries, including in the United States and Europe, brace for the trauma of higher prices that eat into consumer spending, China had the opposite problem before the war.

包括美国和欧洲在内的许多国家政府正在为高物价带来的创伤做准备，这种高物价会侵蚀消费者支出，而战争爆发前，中国面临的问题却恰恰相反。

Falling wholesale prices have plagued the Chinese economy. Thousands of manufacturers have had to sell their goods for less and less. Consumer prices have also stagnated in China and occasionally fallen, helping to depress wages.

批发价格持续下跌一直困扰着中国经济。数以千计的制造商不得不以越来越低的价格出售商品。中国消费者价格也停滞不前，偶尔还会下跌，这进一步压低了工资。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release consumer price data for the United States on Friday in Washington. Those numbers will be scrutinized for the extent to which the Middle East war may be affecting inflation and affordability in the United States. Rising prices in China can seep through to prices in the United States, because much of America’s supply of manufactured goods comes directly from China or indirectly, through countries like Vietnam and Mexico.

美国劳工统计局定于周五在华盛顿发布消费者价格数据。这些数据将被仔细研究，以了解中东战争可能在多大程度上影响美国的通胀和支付能力。中国的价格上涨可能会传导到美国价格，因为美国的大部分制成品供应直接来自中国，或通过越南、墨西哥等国间接来自中国。

A broad fall in the price level across an economy, a phenomenon known as deflation, makes it hard for companies to pay their debts and their workers. Chinese policymakers have been so wary of deflation that they have banned the country’s economists from publicly discussing its dangers.

整个经济中物价水平的广泛下跌，即所谓的通货紧缩现象，会使企业难以偿还债务和支付工人工资。中国决策者对通缩极为警惕，以至于禁止本国经济学家公开讨论其危害。

Producer prices rose 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, led by increases in prices not just for fuel but also for aluminum. Producer prices fell 0.9 percent in February.

3月份生产者价格同比上涨0.5%，主要由燃料以及铝的价格上涨带动。2月份生产者价格则下跌了0.9%。

Because the increase in producer prices mainly involved higher prices for imported raw materials, however, the benefit for Chinese manufacturers’ profitability may be limited.

然而，由于生产者价格的上涨主要涉及进口原材料价格上涨，对中国制造商盈利能力的提振可能有限。

Inflation in consumer prices slowed slightly last month with the fading of a brief surge in spending during Lunar New Year celebrations in February.

上个月消费者价格通胀略有放缓，原因是2月份农历新年庆祝活动带来的短暂消费激增逐渐消退。

Consumer prices were up 1 percent in March from a year earlier, compared with 1.3 percent in February. Weak spending in China, mainly the result of a prolonged housing market downturn, has made it hard for companies to raise retail prices.

3月份消费者价格同比上涨1%，低于2月份的1.3%。中国消费疲弱（主要是房地产市场长期低迷所致）使得企业难以提高零售价格。

China also has a surfeit of pigs that has driven down prices for pork, a staple of the Chinese diet and an important component of the country’s Consumer Price Index. Wholesale pork prices hit an eight-year low in March.

中国还存在生猪过剩的问题，这压低了猪肉价格。猪肉是中国饮食中不可或缺的食材，也是中国消费者价格指数的重要组成部分。3月份猪肉批发价格创下八年新低。

Melania Trump summoned reporters to the White House Thursday afternoon to give a surprise statement about Jeffrey Epstein, saying she had no relationship with him, was not a victim of his and had no knowledge of his crimes.

周四下午，梅拉尼娅·特朗普在白宫召集记者，就杰弗里·爱泼斯坦事件发表了一份出人意料的声明，称她与爱泼斯坦不存在任何关系，也不是他的受害者，对其犯罪活动一无所知。

In remarks that lasted just under six minutes, she said she wanted to clear “my good name.” She addressed rumors about the origin story of how she met her husband, the president of the United States. And she called on Congress to give a hearing to victims of Mr. Epstein’s crimes.

在这段时长不足六分钟的讲话中，她表示希望为“我的清白声誉”正名。她还回应了关于她如何与其丈夫——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普相识的传闻，并呼吁国会为爱泼斯坦案件的受害者举行听证会。

“The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today,” Mrs. Trump said. She talked about “numerous fake images and statements about Epstein and me” that “have been percolating on social media for years now.”

“那些将我与可耻的杰弗里·爱泼斯坦联系在一起的谎言今天必须结束，”梅拉尼娅·特朗普说。她提到，“大量关于爱泼斯坦和我的虚假图片和说法”“多年来一直在社交媒体上发酵”。

It was not clear why she chose to speak out now, or to what reports she was referring.

目前尚不清楚她为何选择在此时发声，也不清楚她具体指的是哪些报道。

A spokesperson for Mrs. Trump said the president knew that the first lady planned to make a statement, but later said it was not clear if Mr. Trump was aware of the topic of her remarks. In a phone call with an MS Now reporter, Mr. Trump said he had no prior knowledge of what she had planned to say.

梅拉尼娅的发言人表示，总统知道第一夫人计划发表声明，但随后又称不确定特朗普是否了解她发言的具体内容。在与MS Now记者通电话时，特朗普表示，他事先并不知道她打算说什么。

The White House did not respond to questions about what the president knew on the matter and when.

白宫没有回应有关总统何时知道此事、具体了解多少的提问。

The first lady’s statement is sure to supercharge a narrative that the Trump administration has been struggling to make go away since last summer, when chunks of the MAGA base broke into open revolt against Mr. Trump over his handling of the Epstein investigation.

第一夫人的声明肯定会加剧一种舆论叙事，这种叙事正是特朗普政府自去年夏天以来一直竭力平息却收效甚微的。当时，由于不满特朗普对爱泼斯坦案调查的处理方式，MAGA基本盘中有相当一部分人公开对其表示反对。

The scandal has burbled all year, the president’s supporters refusing to move on from it no matter how many times he instructs them to. Just last week, Pam Bondi lost her job as attorney general in part over her failure to contain the furor. She is still tangled up in it.

这一丑闻全年都在持续发酵，无论总统多少次要求他的支持者们放下此事，他们都拒绝就此翻篇。就在上周，帕姆·邦迪因此事失去了司法部长一职，部分原因就是她未能平息这场风波。她至今仍深陷其中。

What Mrs. Trump said on Thursday may have been designed to clear her own name, but it certainly won’t help the West Wing escape its Epstein troubles.

梅拉尼娅·特朗普周四的言论或许是为了自证清白，但这肯定无助于白宫方面摆脱爱泼斯坦事件的困扰。

The first lady started her remarks by recalling the era when she met her husband, and, apparently, Mr. Epstein.

第一夫人在发言一开始回顾了她与丈夫相识的那段时期，而且显然，她也是在那个时期结识了爱泼斯坦先生。

“Donald and I were invited to the same parties as Epstein from time to time, since overlapping in social circles is common in New York City,” Mrs. Trump explained to the small group of stunned reporters arrayed in the entrance hall of the White House. The first time she ever “crossed paths with Epstein” was in 2000, she said, “at an event Donald and I attended together.”

“唐纳德和我偶尔会和爱泼斯坦受邀参加同样的派对，因为在纽约，社交圈重叠是很常见的，”梅拉尼娅·特朗普向聚集在白宫门厅、显得颇为震惊的一小群记者解释道。她说，她第一次“与爱泼斯坦产生交集”是在2000年，“在一次我和唐纳德一同出席的活动上”。

2000年2月，唐纳德·特朗普及女友梅拉尼娅·克瑙斯与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦和吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦在特朗普位于佛罗里达的马阿拉歌庄园合影。

“Epstein did not introduce me to Donald Trump,” she said. “I met my husband by chance at a New York City party in 1998. This initial encounter with my husband is documented in detail in my book.”

“爱泼斯坦并没有把我介绍给唐纳德·特朗普，”她说，“1998年，我在纽约市的一个派对上偶然遇到了我的丈夫。关于这次初次相遇，在我的书中有详细记载。”

The encounter she was referring to is a story she has told over many years about meeting Mr. Trump in 1998 at the Kit Kat Club. She has always said that it was Paolo Zampolli, an Italian modeling agent, who introduced her to Mr. Trump.

她所指的这次相遇，是她多年来反复讲述的一个故事：1998年，她在Kit Kat俱乐部与特朗普相识。她一直表示，是意大利模特经纪人保罗·赞波利将她介绍给特朗普的。

Reached by phone in Milan on Thursday, Mr. Zampolli affirmed Mrs. Trump’s account and said “I’m ready to testify in Congress” that he introduced the couple that night at the Kit Kat Club.

周四在米兰接受电话采访时，赞波利证实了梅拉尼娅的说法，并表示“我准备好在国会作证”，证明那天晚上在Kit Kat俱乐部是他介绍两人相识的。

Mr. Zampolli did business with Mr. Epstein and appears several times in the Epstein files.

赞波利与爱泼斯坦存在业务往来，并在爱泼斯坦文件中多次出现。

Mrs. Trump’s name appeared in the Epstein files, too — another matter she evidently wanted to clear up on Thursday. In a 2002 email written to Ghislaine Maxwell, a woman named “Melania” wrote to Ms. Maxwell to praise a profile of Mr. Epstein in New York magazine. Ms. Maxwell called the woman “sweet pea,” and the woman signed her email “Love.”

梅拉尼娅的名字也出现在爱泼斯坦文件中——这显然是她在周四想要澄清的另一件事。在2002年一封写给吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦的电子邮件中，一个名叫“梅拉尼娅”的女子写信给麦克斯韦，称赞《纽约》杂志一篇爱泼斯坦的人物特写稿件。麦克斯韦称这名女子为“小甜心”，而该女子在邮件中署名“爱你的”。

On Thursday, the first lady addressed her correspondence with Ms. Maxwell: “To be clear, I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice Maxwell. My email reply to Maxwell cannot be categorized as anything more than casual correspondence.”

周四，第一夫人回应了她与麦克斯韦的通信：“需要明确的是，我从未与爱泼斯坦或其同伙麦克斯韦有任何关系。我对马克斯韦尔的邮件回复只能算是普通的通信。”

The hydra-headed Epstein scandal has ensnared so many people who’ve walked the halls of the White House that the first lady seemed intent on setting herself apart.

牵涉甚广的爱泼斯坦丑闻已将太多曾在白宫出入的人卷入其中，以至于第一夫人似乎希望将自己与这滩浑水划清界限。

“I was never on Epstein’s plane,” she insisted, “and never visited his private island.”

“我从未登上过爱泼斯坦的飞机，”她坚称，“也从未去过他的私人岛屿。”

The same cannot be said for her husband, whose name appeared on the flight logs for Mr. Epstein’s plane several times, or for the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who acknowledged in a Senate hearing earlier this year that he’d traveled to Mr. Epstein’s island.

但她的丈夫却不能这样说——其名字曾多次出现在爱泼斯坦飞机的飞行日志上；而商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克也在今年早些时候的一场参议院听证会上承认，他曾前往爱泼斯坦的岛。

And so there the first lady stood on Thursday, trying to distance herself from all things Epstein. She slammed those who would peddle “false smears” against her and cited people and publishers who’ve issued public apologies to her in the past. Among them: The Democratic operative James Carville; Harper Collins UK; The Daily Beast.

于是，周四第一夫人站在那里，试图与一切跟爱泼斯坦相关的东西划清界限。她猛烈抨击那些兜售针对她的“不实抹黑”的人，并列举了过去曾向她公开道歉的人士和出版机构，其中包括民主党策略师詹姆斯·卡维尔、哈珀柯林斯英国分公司以及《每日野兽》网。

“Be cautious about what you believe,” Mrs. Trump warned.

“对你所信的事情要保持谨慎，”梅拉尼娅·特朗普警告说。

She shifted the focus to the victims of Mr. Epstein’s crimes. “I call on Congress to provide the women who have been victimized by Epstein with the public hearing specifically centered around the survivors,” she said. “Give these victims their opportunity to testify under oath in front of Congress.”

她随后将话题转向爱泼斯坦罪行的受害者。“我呼吁国会为那些遭受爱泼斯坦侵害的女性举行公开听证会，专门围绕幸存者展开，”她说。“让这些受害者有机会在国会面前宣誓作证。”

去年9月，在国会大厦前举行的声援爱泼斯坦案受害者的“与幸存者站在一起”集会。

The House Oversight Committee has been investigating Mr. Epstein and the federal government’s handling of the case against him since last year. The inquiry grew from the furor over the Trump administration’s backtracking on a decision to release its full investigative material.

自去年以来，众议院监督委员会一直在调查爱泼斯坦案以及联邦政府对此案的处理方式。这项调查源于特朗普政府在公布完整调查材料的决定上出尔反尔所引发的强烈不满。

Representative Robert Garcia of California, the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee, said in an interview that he agreed with Mrs. Trump’s call for a public hearing, adding that Democrats had been pushing Republicans to hold one for months. He also said that Mrs. Trump’s comments seemed to reject Mr. Trump’s frequent contention that the Epstein investigation was a “hoax” pushed by Democrats.

监督委员会资深民主党人、加州众议员罗伯特·加西亚在接受采访时表示，他同意梅拉尼娅关于举行公开听证会的呼吁，并补充说，民主党人数月来一直在敦促共和党人这样做。他还表示，梅拉尼娅的言论似乎驳斥了特朗普经常声称的爱泼斯坦调查是民主党推动的“骗局”的说法。

In recent months, Mr. Trump has tried to dismiss the Epstein controversy. He told the country it’s time to “move on” and snapped at a reporter who asked him what his message would be to Mr. Epstein’s victims.

近几个月来，特朗普一直试图淡化围绕爱泼斯坦的争议。他曾告诉全国公众，是时候“向前看”，并厉声斥责一名问他想对爱泼斯坦受害者说些什么的记者。

On Thursday, his wife struck a different tone: “Every woman should have her day to tell her story in public, if she wishes.”

周四，他的妻子则采取了不同的语气：“每一位女性都应该有机会在公众面前讲述自己的经历，如果她愿意的话。”

And then she turned on her stiletto heels and stalked out as the dazed reporters started shouting after her: “Why now!? Why now!?”

随后，她踩着细高跟鞋转身离去，留下茫然的记者们在她身后开始大喊：“为什么是现在！？为什么是现在！？”

As wars rage and American alliances look less certain, China’s leader Xi Jinping is making a renewed case to Taiwan: Its future lies not with Washington, but with Beijing.

在战火肆虐、美国的盟友关系显得越来越不确定之际，中国领导人习近平正在向台湾重新传递一个信息：台湾的未来取决于北京而不是华盛顿。

Mr. Xi delivered that message implicitly in a rare meeting in Beijing on Friday with Cheng Li-wun, the chairwoman of the Nationalist Party, Taiwan’s main opposition party.

习近平周五在北京与台湾主要反对党国民党主席郑丽文举行了一次罕见的会晤，含蓄地传达了这一信息。

The meeting underscored how Beijing is trying to shape Taiwan’s politics by courting parties more open to its stance and spurning those that are not. Beijing shuns Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is its territory. But China maintains ties with the Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with Beijing.

此次会晤凸显出，北京正试图通过拉拢对其立场持相对开放态度的政党、冷落那些抗拒的政党来塑造台湾的政治格局。北京拒绝与台湾执政的民进党打交道，因为后者不接受北京关于台湾是中国领土的主张。但中国与国民党保持着联系，国民党主张与北京进行更密切的接触。

“The world today is far from tranquil, and peace is all the more precious,” Mr. Xi told Ms. Cheng at the opening of their talks, according to a Taiwanese television broadcast of the meeting. “Compatriots on both sides of the strait are Chinese, one family, and the desire for peace, development, exchanges and cooperation is a shared aspiration.”

根据台湾电视节目中的会晤画面，习近平在会谈开始时对郑丽文说：“今天的世界并不太平，和平弥足珍贵。两岸同胞都是中国人、一家人。要和平、要发展、要交流、要合作是共同心声。”

In her response, Ms. Cheng cited Mr. Xi’s slogan for his program of national revival, saying that “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the shared rejuvenation of people on both sides of the strait.”

郑丽文在回应中引用了习近平的民族复兴口号，表示“中华民族伟大复兴是两岸人民的共同复兴”。

Ms. Cheng is the first sitting Nationalist leader in a decade to hold talks with Mr. Xi. Mr. Xi’s outreach appears aimed at increasing pressure on Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, who wants Taiwan to forge a future separate from China. The meeting elevates a rival of Lai’s and potentially undercuts his argument that Taiwan must rely on Washington to deter threats from Beijing.

郑丽文是十年来首位与习近平举行会谈的现任国民党领导人。习近平此次伸出橄榄枝似乎旨在加大对台湾总统、民进党的赖清德的压力。赖清德希望台湾走出一条与中国分离的路。此次会晤提升了赖清德政敌的地位，并可能削弱他关于台湾必须依靠华盛顿来威慑北京威胁的论点。

Mr. Lai has proposed increasing Taiwan’s military spending through a $40 billion package to be spent across eight years, on top of the regular budget outlays.

赖清德提议，在常规预算支出之外，通过一项为期八年的400亿美元一揽子计划来增加台湾的军事开支。

“Xi wants to cast doubt in Taiwan over the Lai Ching-te administration’s focus on self-defense by showing the benefits of a more conciliatory stance toward China,” said Amanda Hsiao, a director on China policy in the Eurasia Group, a consultancy firm.

“习近平希望表明，采取倾向于和解的对华立场是有好处的，从而让台湾民众对赖清德政府专注于自我防卫的做法产生怀疑，”咨询公司欧亚集团中国政策主任萧嫣然(Amanda Hsiao)说。

The talks with Ms. Cheng could also serve a tactical purpose for Mr. Xi as he prepares for a summit with President Trump in China next month. “This narrative of China as peacemaker could also help Xi make a more convincing argument to Trump for why the U.S. president should, for example, hold off on arms sales to Taiwan,” Ms. Hsiao said.

与郑丽文的会谈对习近平来说也可能具有战术意义，因为他正准备下个月在中国与特朗普总统举行峰会。“中国作为和平缔造者的这一叙事，也能帮助习近平向特朗普提出更有说服力的理由，例如为什么美国总统应该暂缓对台军售，”萧嫣然说。

But Mr. Xi’s message may struggle to gain traction with Taiwanese voters. Even as Mr. Trump’s tariffs have dented Taiwanese public confidence in the United States, confidence in China remains even lower. Thirty-four percent of Taiwanese said the United States was a “credible country,” according to a survey in January by Academia Sinica, a research academy in Taiwan, compared with 17 percent who said the same about China.

但习近平传递的信息可能难以在台湾选民中获得共鸣。尽管特朗普的关税削弱了台湾民众对美国的信心，但台湾人对中国的信心仍然更低。根据台湾中央研究院1月份的一项调查，34%的台湾人认为美国是“可信赖的国家”，认为中国可信赖的比例仅为17%。

China may offer trade and other economic incentives to entice Taiwan to grow closer to Beijing. But that inducement is undercut by Beijing’s sustained military pressure on Taiwan, including in recent years exercises that simulate blockades and amphibious assaults.

中国可能会提供贸易和其他经济诱因来吸引台湾与北京走得更近。但这一诱惑却被北京对台湾持续的军事压力所削弱，包括近年来模拟封锁和两栖攻击的军演。

“If Cheng Li-wun wants Taiwanese people to clearly feel she has accomplished something in her trip, the fastest way would be reducing Chinese military activity against Taiwan,” said Wei-feng Tzeng, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei who studies cross-strait relations. “But that is unlikely because she doesn’t have the chips to negotiate this with Xi Jinping. She’s an opposition leader after all.”

“如果郑丽文希望台湾民众清楚地感觉到她此行有所收获，最快的方式就是减少中国针对台湾的军事活动，”台北国立政治大学研究两岸关系的曾伟峰教授说，“但这不太可能，因为她没有资本去与习近平谈这个问题。她毕竟只是反对党领导人。”

Still, Mr. Xi and Ms. Cheng appear to be betting that Taiwan’s voters will be drawn to a message of rapprochement with Beijing, especially in a more turbulent world.

尽管如此，习近平和郑丽文指望的似乎是，在一个更加动荡的世界中，台湾选民会被与北京的和解信息所吸引。

“The flames of war are spreading and people are fearful,” Ms. Cheng said at a Nationalist Party meeting in Taipei before departing for China on Tuesday. “In Taiwan, we must exhaust every effort to avoid war breaking out.”

“不可讳言，现在整体的国际环境动荡不安、战火蔓延、人心惶惶，”郑丽文周二启程前往中国前，在台北的一次国民党会议上表示，“在台湾，我们要竭尽一切的努力避免战争的发生。”

In her youth, Ms. Cheng was a fiery proponent of independence for Taiwan. But now she says she is proudly Chinese, as well as Taiwanese, and argues that a shared culture can heal divisions.

年轻时代的郑丽文曾强烈支持台湾独立。但现在她说，自己既是一个自豪的台湾人，也是一个中国人，并认为共同的文化可以弥合分歧。

She has cast the visit as a “journey of peace,” invoking a 2005 trip by a previous Nationalist leader that reopened talks with the Chinese Communist Party after decades of hostility.

她将此次访问定位为“和平之旅”，呼应了2005年国民党前领导人的一次大陆访问，那次访问在数十年的敌对之后重新开启了与中国共产党之间的对话。

Your cholesterol levels can affect your risk of heart disease and stroke. And the longer you have high cholesterol, the greater your risk.

胆固醇水平会影响罹患心脏病和中风的风险。胆固醇水平偏高持续的时间越长，患病风险就越高。

That’s why leading medical groups recommend getting your cholesterol checked regularly, and working to lower your levels even when they’re only slightly elevated, in some cases. Last month, the American College of Cardiology and other medical organizations released new guidelines to help patients and doctors know what cholesterol levels to aim for, and which medications might help.

正因为如此，主流医学团体建议定期检测胆固醇水平，在某些情况下，胆固醇水平即使只是轻度升高，也要着手开始降低。上个月，美国心脏病学会联合多家医学机构发布了新版指南，帮助患者和医生明确胆固醇的控制目标，以及适用的药物方案。

We asked doctors to break down the recommendations.

我们邀请医生对这份指南进行了详细解读。

To start, know your levels.

首先，了解自己的胆固醇水平

The guidelines recommend that adults, starting at age 19, have their cholesterol checked at least every five years. (Before that, children should have their cholesterol checked once, between ages 9 to 11, to screen for inherited high cholesterol.)

指南建议，19岁及以上的成年人至少每五年检测一次胆固醇。（在此之前，儿童应在9-11岁期间检测一次胆固醇，筛查遗传性高胆固醇。）

A lipid panel, which you can have done with a blood draw at your primary care doctor’s office, looks at several types of cholesterol. Of these, doctors focus most on low-density lipoprotein, or LDL, a “bad cholesterol” that can build up in your artery walls. We have “overwhelming evidence” that the lower your LDL levels, the lower your risk of a cardiovascular event like a heart attack or a stroke, said Dr. Erin D. Michos, associate director of preventive cardiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

血脂检测只需在全科医生诊室抽血即可完成，会检测多种胆固醇指标。其中，医生最关注低密度脂蛋白(LDL)——也就是会在动脉壁沉积的“坏胆固醇”。约翰斯·霍普金斯大学医学院预防心脏病学副主任艾琳·米科斯表示，我们有“压倒性的证据“，表明低密度脂蛋白水平越低，心脏病发作、中风等心血管事件的风险就越低。”

The guidelines also recommend that all adults now have levels of Lipoprotein(a), a genetically determined form of cholesterol, tested at least once. Lp(a) increases the risk of heart disease, regardless of your other lipid levels. “It’s an amplifier of whatever your risk is,” said Dr. Ann Marie Navar, an associate professor of cardiology at the U.T. Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas. We reach our adult levels in childhood, and they remain relatively stable over a lifetime, with a few exceptions.

指南还新增要求：所有成年人至少检测一次脂蛋白(a)[Lp(a)]——这是一种由基因决定的胆固醇类型。无论其他血脂指标如何，脂蛋白(a)升高都会增加心脏病风险。达拉斯德克萨斯大学西南医学中心心脏病学副教授安·玛丽·纳瓦尔说：“它会放大你本身现有的任何风险。” 脂蛋白(a)水平在童年时期就达到成人水平，除少数例外情况，一生都相对稳定。

There’s another, less widely used test for a different lipoprotein called ApoB. This is perhaps the best measure of cholesterol related risk, Dr. Navar said, because it reflects the total number of “bad” cholesterol particles, including not just LDL, but also Lp(a) and another type called vLDL. This makes it a more reliable measure, especially for people with metabolic disease, including diabetes and cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, because of differences in LDL particle size and density in these patients.

还有一种应用较少的检测，针对载脂蛋白B(ApoB)。纳瓦尔表示，这或许是评估胆固醇相关风险的最佳指标，因为它反映了所有“坏”胆固醇颗粒的总数，不仅包括低密度脂蛋白，还包括脂蛋白(a)和极低密度脂蛋白(vLDL)。因此这一指标更为可靠，尤其是对于糖尿病、心肾代谢综合征等代谢性疾病患者而言，因为这类患者的低密度脂蛋白颗粒大小和密度存在差异。

Determine your individual risk.

评估个人患病风险

It’s never too early to talk with your doctor about your risk of heart disease, and you should build heart-healthy habits like eating a Mediterranean-style or DASH diet and exercising regularly as soon as possible. But starting at age 30, the conversation can include an actual prediction of your future risk. The guidelines use a new calculator, called PREVENT, that includes risk factors that weren’t previously taken into account, including body mass index and kidney disease.

和医生讨论心脏病风险永远不嫌太早，而且你应该尽早养成有益心脏的生活习惯，比如坚持地中海饮食或得舒饮食、规律运动。但从30岁开始，这种讨论可以包含对未来风险的实际预测。指南采用了一款名为PREVENT的新型风险计算工具，纳入了此前未被考虑的危险因素，包括体重指数和肾脏疾病。

It assesses both short-term (10-year) and long-term (30-year) risk.

该工具可同时评估短期（10年）和长期（30年）患病风险。

Measuring long-term risk is particularly useful for people 30 to 59. Doctors might look at a younger patient who isn’t at risk of heart disease in the next 10 years, but could be in the long-term, and recommend that they start taking a statin.

长期风险评估对30-59岁人群尤为重要。有些年轻患者未来10年的心脏病风险较低，但长期风险较高，医生可能会建议他们提前开始服用他汀类药物。

“We want to reduce their lifetime exposure” to these bad cholesterol particles, Dr. Michos said. “The risk is not only how high a level is, it’s how many years one’s arteries are exposed to these high levels,” similar to how doctors look at “pack-years” of smoking.

“我们希望减少他们一生中接触这些坏胆固醇颗粒的时间，”米科斯说。“风险不仅取决于胆固醇水平有多高，还取决于动脉暴露在高胆固醇环境中的年数。”这和医生评估吸烟者的‘包年’（每天吸烟包数乘以吸烟年数——译注）是同一个道理。

People who are at low 10-year risk don’t typically need to start medication, unless they have an LDL level of 160 mg/dL or greater, or have a high 30-year risk.

10年风险较低的人群通常不需要用药，除非低密度脂蛋白水平≥160mg/dL，或30年风险较高。

For people who are at borderline or intermediate risk, a coronary arterial calcium (CAC) score — which uses a low-dose CT scan to look for evidence of plaque buildup in the heart arteries — can help with decision making. That evidence can be a powerful motivator for asymptomatic patients to take medication, said Dr. Martha Gulati, a professor of cardiology at Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center.

对于临界风险或中等风险人群，冠状动脉钙化(CAC)评分（通过低剂量CT扫描检测心脏动脉内的斑块沉积情况）可以帮助医生做出决策。休斯顿卫理公会德贝基心脏与血管中心心脏病学教授玛莎·古拉蒂表示，检测结果能有效促使无症状患者接受药物治疗。

In considering treatment, doctors also take into account other factors that might raise a person’s risk of heart disease, such as South Asian race, diabetes, early menopause, pre-eclampsia or gestational diabetes, for example. They also consider inflammatory conditions like rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis, since inflammation contributes to plaque buildup in the arteries.

在制定治疗方案时，医生还会考虑其他增加心脏病风险的因素，比如南亚裔、糖尿病、早绝经、先兆子痫或妊娠期糖尿病，以及类风湿性关节炎、银屑病等炎症性疾病,因为炎症会加速动脉斑块的形成。

Know your goal.

明确目标

The new guidelines give specific target levels of LDL based on short- and long-term risk of heart disease.

新版指南根据心脏病的短期和长期风险，给出了具体的低密度脂蛋白目标值：

•For general prevention of heart disease in people who are at borderline or intermediate 10-year risk and don’t have diabetes or heart disease, the goal is an LDL level under 100 mg/dL.

· 对于10年风险为临界或中等、且无糖尿病或心脏病的普通人群，其一般性预防目标为低密度脂蛋白＜100mg/dL

•For patients at high 10-year risk, people with longstanding Type 2 diabetes or complications of diabetes, or people with CAC scores over 100, the goal is under 70 mg/dL.

· 对于10年高风险人群、长期二型糖尿病患者或糖尿病并发症患者、以及冠状动脉钙化评分＞100分的人群，目标为低密度脂蛋白＜70mg/dL

•For most patients who have already had a heart attack or a stroke, the goal is under 55 mg/dL. This might seem like an especially aggressive goal. But “with very intensive cholesterol lowering, we can actually shrink plaque,” Dr. Michos said, reducing the risk of future cardiovascular issues.

·对于大多数已经发生过心脏病发作或中风的患者，目标为低密度脂蛋白＜55mg/dL。这个目标看起来尤为激进，但米科斯博士表示：“通过高强度降胆固醇治疗，我们实际上可以缩小斑块体积”，从而降低未来心血管事件的风险。

Work with your doctor to find the right medication plan.

和医生共同制定合适的用药方案

Most patients with continuously high cholesterol levels will need medication. Statins, which block the liver from making cholesterol, are still the first line of treatment. “They’re cheap,” Dr. Gulati said. “We’ve had them for over four decades. They reduce bad cardiovascular outcomes.”

大多数胆固醇持续升高的患者都需要药物治疗。他汀类药物通过抑制肝脏合成胆固醇发挥作用，目前仍是一线治疗方案。“这类药物价格低廉，”古拉蒂博士说。“我们使用它们已经有40多年，能有效减少不良心血管事件的发生。”

“They’re good drugs despite their bad P.R.,” she added, referring to common concerns about side effects. She noted that in randomized controlled trials, people who took a placebo experienced the same side effects as those who took statins.

“尽管公关形象不好，但它们其实是好药，”她还说，这里指的是人们对他汀类药物副作用的普遍担忧。她指出，在随机对照试验中，服用安慰剂的人群和服用他汀类药物的人群，报告的副作用发生率并无差异。

But there are also many other medications at doctors’ disposal, including ezetimibe, which inhibits the absorption of cholesterol from food; bempedoic acid, which blocks production of cholesterol in the liver; and a much newer class of drugs called PCSK9 inhibitors, which help the liver clear LDL from the blood. (The PCSK9 inhibitors are currently approved as injections, but trials for a pill form are also underway.)

不过医生还有很多其他药物可选，包括：抑制肠道吸收食物中胆固醇的依折麦布；能阻断肝脏胆固醇合成的贝派地酸；以及更新的药物PCSK9抑制剂，它能帮助肝脏清除血液中的低密度脂蛋白。（PCSK9抑制剂目前获批的剂型为注射剂，但口服剂型的临床试验也在进行中。）

“If you try a statin and can’t tolerate it, we have other medications,” Dr. Navar said. “If you try a statin but you’re not at goal, you may need more than one medication.”

“如果服用他汀类药物不耐受，我们还有其他选择，”纳瓦尔说。“如果服用他汀类药物后仍未达到目标，可能需要联合使用多种药物。”

“There are a lot of options out there,” she added.

“现在的治疗方案非常丰富，”她还说。

Historical analogies are never exact. But with the tenuous cease-fire deal in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, some are asking whether this is a “Suez” moment for the United States, marking the waning of American power and credibility in the world.

历史类比从来都不是完全准确的。但随着美以对伊战争达成脆弱的停火协议，有人开始质疑：这是否标志着美国面临“苏伊士时刻”，预示着美国全球实力与公信力的正式衰退？

The Suez crisis took place in October 1956, when Britain, France and Israel attacked Egypt to force open the Suez Canal. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, with an election days away, ordered them to stop. Prime Minister Anthony Eden of Britain resigned. President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt became a hero of anti-colonialism.

苏伊士危机发生在1956年10月，当时英国、法国与以色列联合进攻埃及，试图强行重开苏伊士运河。当时距离大选仅剩数日，美国总统艾森豪威尔下令三国立即停火。英国首相安东尼·艾登随后辞职，埃及总统贾迈勒·阿卜杜勒·纳赛尔则成为了反殖民主义的英雄。

Suez became shorthand for the moment that Britain, exhausted from World War II, gave way as a global power to the United States.

苏伊士从此成为一个代名词，象征着二战后元气大伤的英国将全球主导地位让给美国。

There are differences from that time. The Suez Canal is man-made and wholly in Egyptian territory, unlike the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no other global power capable of replacing America in the region, let alone ordering President Trump around.

如今的情况与当时有所不同。与作为国际水道的霍尔木兹海峡不同，苏伊士运河是人工开凿的，且完全位于埃及领土内。如今也没有任何其他全球大国有能力在该地区取代美国，更遑论对特朗普总统发号施令。

But the two-week cease-fire leaves the Islamic Republic in place and still in command of the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s nuclear stockpile and ballistic missile program unresolved. After Mr. Trump’s declaration of victory, however hollow, it is difficult to imagine a resumption of full-scale war.

但这份为期两周的停火协议让伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权得以存续，且依然掌控着霍尔木兹海峡的未来，伊朗的核储备与弹道导弹计划问题也仍未解决。尽管特朗普的胜利宣言空洞无物，但很难想象全面战争会再度爆发。

For the rest of the world, the war “is starting to look like a military defeat, more serious than Iraq or Afghanistan,” said Bruno Maçães, former secretary of state for European affairs for Portugal.

葡萄牙前欧洲事务国务秘书布鲁诺·马萨埃斯表示，对世界其他国家而言，这场战争“已经开始显现出军事失败的迹象，其严重性甚至超过伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争”。

“The myth of America as all-powerful is important,” he added, “and it’s the basic requirement of a global hegemon to keep the oil flowing, to open up the strait and keep it open. This belief in an all-powerful America that can solve anything is disappearing.”

“美国无所不能的神话至关重要，”他还说。“保障石油流通、打通海峡并维持海峡畅通是全球霸主的基本职责。而这种相信美国能解决一切问题的信念正在消失。”

Keeping sea lanes open for American goods and global trade is one of the few permanent interests the United States has in the Middle East, as well as in Asia.

保障美国商品与全球贸易的航道畅通是美国在中东乃至亚洲为数不多的永久利益之一。

The war in Iran shut down the strait. Now, the Iranian military is still in control of the passageway and is likely to demand large tolls. “The strategic rationale for the American military presence in the region has taken a huge hit,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

这场对伊战争导致了海峡关闭。如今，伊朗军方依然掌控着这条航道，且很可能会收取高额通行费。“美国在该地区军事存在的战略合理性已经遭受了重创，”华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员斯蒂芬·韦特海姆说。

The Suez analogy works, Mr. Wertheim said, in that the war in Iran demonstrated “in a single incident the danger of American misgovernance and poor judgment.”

韦特海姆认为，苏伊士的类比之所以成立，是因为这场对伊战争“通过单一事件”，集中揭示了“美国治理失能与决策失误所造成的巨大风险”。

1956年11月，埃及为封锁苏伊士运河而击沉的一艘船。

The war itself and its uncertain outcome, he said, “just accelerates an existing worry shared by countries around the world about what America’s declining quality of governance means for what they can expect from the United States.”

他表示，这场战争本身及其不确定的结局“只会加剧全球各国早已存在的担忧：美国治理能力持续下滑会让各国对美国还能抱有哪些期待呢”。

America’s allies may be unhappy, perplexed and even angry about Trump administration policies, but many of them, especially those in the Persian Gulf and Asia suffering the impact of energy shortages and restrictions, have few other options for security partners.

美国的盟友或许对特朗普政府的政策感到不满、困惑甚至愤怒，但其中许多国家——尤其是饱受能源短缺与限制冲击的波斯湾和亚洲国家——几乎没有其他安全伙伴可选。

But the war and cease-fire deal have diminished American influence and will affect how the allies of the United States view its reliability, said Charles A. Kupchan, a political scientist and director of European studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

但外交关系委员会政治学家、欧洲研究主任查尔斯·库普钱表示，这场战争与停火协议已经削弱了美国的影响力，并将改变盟友对美国可靠性的看法。

The war against Iran was not begun in consultation with allies. And it came after a series of events that have confounded them. Mr. Trump’s tariff wars were an unpleasant shock, but his threat to take Greenland by force if necessary from Denmark, a European and NATO ally, is seen as an inflection point about American predation, unreliability and contempt for traditional friends.

这场对伊战争是在未与盟友商议的情况下发起的。而在此之前，一系列事件早已让盟友们错愕不已。特朗普的关税战已经令人不快，但他威胁必要时将从欧洲盟友及北约盟友丹麦手中武力夺取格陵兰岛更被视为一个转折点，凸显出美国的掠夺性、不可靠性以及对传统盟友的蔑视。

“The Iran war and its economic impact are piling on and reinforce this sense that the U.S. right now has become unpredictable and undependable,” Mr. Kupchan said.

“对伊战争及其经济影响雪上加霜，进一步强化了这样一种认知：如今的美国已经变得不可预测、不可信赖，”库普钱说。

International relations and alliances work on trust. But as Francis Fukuyama of Stanford University wrote on Tuesday, “There has never been a time when the United States was more distrusted, by both traditional friends and by rivals, as at the present.”

国际关系与联盟的基石是信任。但正如斯坦福大学的弗朗西斯·福山周二所写：“美国从未像现在这样，同时遭到传统盟友与对手的普遍不信任。”

A successful dealmaker, he said, needs to generate a minimal amount of trust that he will uphold his end of the bargain. “But reciprocity is a virtue that Trump has never understood or practiced,” he said.

他表示，一个成功的交易者至少需要让对方相信自己会信守承诺。“但互惠原则是特朗普从未理解也从未践行过的美德。”

The war had challenged Washington’s argument that its global primacy was vital to the safety of international trade and the world order. This has been the main justification for the many American bases around the world, and especially in the Middle East.

这场战争动摇了华盛顿长期以来的论调，即美国的全球主导地位对国际贸易安全与世界秩序至关重要。这也是美国在全球各地、尤其是在中东设立众多军事基地的主要理由。

But the war has shown the United States instead acting as a force of disorder and disruption.

但这场战争表明，美国反而成为了制造混乱与动荡的力量。

“By engaging in a war of choice in a critical region for global trade and utterly ignoring the probable consequences for the economies of its closest allies, the Trump administration has destroyed the legitimacy of American power,” asserted Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

“在一个对全球贸易至关重要的地区发动一场自己选择的战争，且完全无视其最亲密盟友的经济可能遭受的后果，特朗普政府已经彻底摧毁了美国霸权的合法性，”昆西负责任治国研究所的阿纳托尔·利文断言。

The impact of a diminished United States is strongest in Europe, which has relied on NATO and the American security guarantee implicit in membership, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella. But Europeans drew a distinction between faith in America and faith in Mr. Trump. The former remains because it is vital for European security.

美国实力衰退的影响在欧洲最为显著。欧洲长期依赖北约以及成员国身份所隐含的美国安全保障——包括美国的核保护伞。但欧洲人已经将对美国的信任与对特朗普个人的信任区分开来。前者依然存在，因为它对欧洲安全至关重要。

Still, Mr. Trump’s policies are inevitably producing a response that will outlast him. The rest of the world is trying to organize itself and derisk from an America that treats its allies as enemies and its traditional enemies, like Russia and China, as friends.

尽管如此，特朗普的政策不可避免地催生了一种应对方式，其影响将超出他的任期——世界各国正在尝试重新调整自身，以规避来自美国的风险——一个将盟友视为敌人、却将俄罗斯和中国等传统对手视为朋友的美国。

Asked if American hegemony has been diminished, the foreign minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, said, “We hope not, but we fear it might be.”

当被问及美国霸权是否已经削弱时，波兰外长拉多斯瓦夫·西科尔斯基表示：“我们希望不会，但我们担心事实正是如此。”

周一，特朗普总统在白宫举行的新闻发布会上。

NATO has taken a hit from Mr. Trump’s overall policies. He continually calls it “a paper tiger,” despite successfully pushing its members to spend considerably more money on the military. During the war in Iran, he lashed out at the Europeans for not acting to open the strait even though the more powerful U.S. Navy was unable to do so.

特朗普的整体政策已经让北约遭受冲击。尽管他成功推动北约成员国大幅增加军费开支，却仍不断称北约是“纸老虎”。对伊战争期间，他猛烈抨击欧洲各国未能采取行动打通海峡，即便实力更强的美国海军自己也做不到这一点。

Allied resistance to his desires rankles him the most. “It all began with, you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Monday. “They don’t want to give it to us, and I said, ‘Bye-bye.’”

最让他耿耿于怀的是盟友对他意愿的抵制。“说真的，一切都始于格陵兰岛，”特朗普周一告诉记者。“他们不肯给我们，那我就说，‘再见吧。’”

The cumulative impact on NATO is significant, said Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of political science at City University of New York. In the long run, China looks to be the bigger winner.

纽约城市大学政治学荣誉教授拉詹·梅农表示，这些事件对北约的累积影响十分显著。从长远来看，中国似乎是更大的赢家。

“While we look crazed and talk about bombing a country back to the stone age, China looks like a peacemaker and agent of stability,” he said. All the while, Beijing got a chance to watch how the U.S. Navy operates.

“当我们好像发疯一样，扬言要把一个国家炸回石器时代时，中国却扮演着和平缔造者与稳定维护者的角色，”他说。与此同时，北京还获得了观察美国海军作战方式的机会。

“China is looking on with a great deal of glee, and when Trump goes there” for a summit meeting now scheduled for mid-May, “he will be much diminished.”

“中国正幸灾乐祸地看着这一切，而当特朗普前往，”参加5月中旬在中国举行的峰会时，“他的底气将会大减。”

China, which gets so much of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed Iran to agree to the cease-fire, and it is expected to participate in keeping the strait open and guaranteeing safe passage for others.

中国绝大部分石油都需经霍尔木兹海峡运输，因此它推动伊朗达成了停火协议。预计中国还将参与维护海峡畅通，保障各国船只的安全通行。

Much depends on how the war ends, cautioned Mr. Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations.

外交关系委员会的库普钱提醒道，很多事情很大程度上取决于这场战争的收尾方式。

If the cease-fire leads to a deal that imposes significant constraints on Iran’s nuclear program and its ability to cause trouble, he said, that would be much better in the longer run than a frozen conflict or one that “just burns on month after month,” with all the accompanying impact on the energy market and American allies.

他表示，如果停火最终能促成一项协议，对伊朗核计划及其制造麻烦的能力施加实质性限制，那么从长远来看，这远比冲突陷入冻结状态、或是“旷日持久地燃烧下去”要好得多——后者将持续冲击能源市场，并损害美国盟友的利益。

Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, described his tense meeting with President Trump this week as a “conversation” that “was really between friends.”

北约秘书长马克·吕特将他本周与特朗普总统之间那场气氛紧张的会面描述为一场“对话”，“实际上是朋友之间的交流”。

Mr. Trump, in a social media post on Thursday, put it slightly differently: “our own, very disappointing, NATO” does not understand “anything unless they have pressure placed upon them!!!”

特朗普在周四的一条社交媒体帖子中的表述则略有不同：“我们这个让人非常失望的北约——除非对他们施加压力，否则他们什么都不懂！！！”

Even as it has violently upended the Middle East and put intense strains on the global economy, the war in Iran has deepened the gulf between Mr. Trump and America’s NATO allies. That is after those countries spent more than a year buffeted by the president’s threats, begun in his first term, to abandon the alliance.

伊朗战争不仅已经彻底搅乱了中东并给全球经济带来巨大压力，也进一步加深了特朗普与美国的北约盟友之间的裂痕。在此之前的这一年多时间里，这些国家已经因总统从第一任期就开始发出的要抛弃北约的威胁而备受冲击。

Mr. Trump is training his anger at NATO as his cease-fire with Iran hangs in the balance and even some of his supporters question whether the United States really achieved its objectives. He is airing his discontent over his inability to take over Greenland, despite behind-the-scenes talks over the Danish island that the White House says are going well. And he is forcing European leaders yet again to try to keep him from abandoning them, even as their countries struggle to shoulder the economic costs of the U.S. war with Iran.

在与伊朗的停火前景仍不明朗、甚至连他的部分支持者都开始质疑美国是否真正实现目标之际，特朗普正将怒火对准北约。他还表达了对未能接管格陵兰岛的不满，尽管白宫称有关这座丹麦岛屿的幕后谈判进展顺利。同时，他再次迫使欧洲领导人竭力挽留，唯恐被其抛弃，尽管这些国家正艰难承受美国与伊朗的战争带来的经济成本。

“We have, sometimes, the political home front to take care of,” Mr. Rutte said onstage at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington on Thursday, in a diplomatically phrased reminder that the war was deeply unpopular in Europe. “NATO is there, of course, to protect the Europeans, but also to protect the United States.”

“我们有时也需要顾及国内政治局势，”吕特周四在华盛顿罗纳德·里根研究所的一场活动上表示，这是一种外交措辞，提醒人们这场战争在欧洲极不受欢迎。“北约当然是为了保护欧洲，但同时也是为了保护美国。”

Mr. Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands, was making the point that the U.S. military benefits from its bases in Europe and, despite the tensions, has used them as staging sites for the war on Iran. But widening cracks in the alliance show that even if negotiators succeed in making a deal in the talks that start Saturday for a more permanent end to the war, the scars are likely to be lasting.

这位荷兰前首相意在指出，美国军方从其欧洲基地中受益，并且尽管存在紧张关系，仍将其用作对伊朗战争的集结地。然而，联盟内部不断扩大的裂痕表明，即使谈判代表能在周六开始的旨在达成更持久停火的会谈中成功达成协议，这些裂痕也很可能留下长期影响。

The Iran war “has become a trans-Atlantic stress test,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany said on Thursday, after acknowledging that his country was “massively suffering” from the energy market disruptions caused by the war. “We do not want — I do not want — a split within NATO.”

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨周四表示，伊朗战争“已经成为跨大西洋关系的一次压力测试”。此前他承认，德国正“深受”这场战争对能源市场造成冲击的影响。“我们不希望——我本人也不希望——北约内部出现分裂。”

Mr. Trump’s disdain for the alliance dates back decades, underpinned by his conviction that Europeans have been freeloading off the American security umbrella. His latest fury stems from U.S. allies’ refusal to embrace his decision to join Israel in assaulting Iran, with Britain and Spain setting limits on the United States’ ability to use bases on their territory.

特朗普对北约的轻视可以追溯到数十年前，其根源在于他认为欧洲长期搭便车，依赖美国的安全保护。他最近的愤怒则源于美国盟友拒绝支持他与以色列一道对伊朗发动攻击的决定，其中英国和西班牙对美军使用境内基地设置了限制。

Mr. Trump escalated his threats against NATO even as he prepared to wind down the war — and despite the fact that he did not try to build a coalition with European countries before the bombing started. He told The Telegraph last week that he may pull out of the alliance entirely. In a news conference on Monday, a day before the cease-fire, Mr. Trump volunteered that he still sought control of Greenland, the semiautonomous Danish territory in the North Atlantic.

即使已经准备逐步结束战争，特朗普仍加大了对北约的威胁——尽管在发动空袭前，他并未尝试与欧洲国家建立行动同盟。他上周在接受《每日电讯报》采访时表示，可能会完全退出北约。在周一的新闻发布会上——也就是停火前一天——特朗普还主动表示，他仍寻求控制位于北大西洋的丹麦半自治领地格陵兰岛。

“It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Mr. Trump said after voicing his dissatisfaction with Europe’s lack of support for the Iran war. “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us.”

“说实话，这一切都始于格陵兰，”特朗普在表达对欧洲未支持伊朗战争的不满后说道，“我们想要格陵兰，他们却不愿意给我们。”

He reinforced the point Wednesday, posting on social media in all capitals that “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them” and that Greenland was a “big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”

他在周三再次强化了这一点，在社交媒体上用全大写字母发文称“我们需要北约时他们不在”，并称格陵兰是一块“庞大、管理不善的冰块！！！”。

Mr. Trump’s pivot back to Greenland was striking given that he said in January that he and Mr. Rutte had formed a “great” framework for a future deal over the island. Three-way talks between officials from Greenland, Denmark and the United States have continued since. There is no indication that those talks would grant control of Greenland to the United States, but a White House official said the administration was optimistic about the course of the talks.

特朗普将注意力重新转向格陵兰，这一点颇为引人注目，因为他在今年1月曾表示，他与马克·吕特已经就该岛未来协议达成了一个“很棒”的框架。此后，来自格陵兰、丹麦和美国的官员一直在进行三方会谈。目前没有迹象表明这些谈判会将格陵兰的控制权交给美国，但一名白宫官员表示，政府对谈判进展持乐观态度。

In years past, many of Mr. Trump’s allies in Washington tried to rein in his attacks on NATO, seeking to remind him of the power that the United States gains from being able to base troops and warplanes in Europe. But in recent weeks, many of the war’s supporters in the United States have joined Mr. Trump in piling on against NATO, especially given the president’s frustration over Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

过去几年里，特朗普在华盛顿的许多盟友曾试图约束他对北约的攻击，提醒他美国可以通过在欧洲驻军和部署战机而获得战略优势。但最近几周，美国国内许多战争的支持者加入了对北约的批评行列，尤其是在特朗普对伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡感到不满的背景下。

Sean Hannity, the Fox News host close to the president, said on his show Wednesday night that Europe was “a dying continent” and mused that “I’m not sure it’s worth going forward with NATO as we go on.”

与总统关系密切的福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提周三晚在节目中表示，欧洲是“一个垂死的大陆”，并感叹道，“我不确定随着事态发展，继续维持北约是否还有意义。”

Jack Keane, a retired general whom Mr. Trump awarded a Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2020, told Mr. Hannity that he did not think the president would pull out of NATO because “there is still value” in the alliance, but he predicted there would be consequences.

2020年被特朗普授予总统自由勋章的退役将军杰克·基恩告诉汉尼提，他认为总统不会退出北约，因为这个联盟“仍然有价值”，但他预测会出现一些后果。

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t decide to move some of our troops out of Western European countries and move them into Eastern Europe countries,” General Keane said. “I think we’ll likely do something.”

“如果我们决定将部分驻军从西欧国家撤到东欧国家，我不会感到惊讶，”基恩将军说。“我想我们很可能会有所行动。”

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump was considering moving U.S. troops stationed in Europe from countries seen as unhelpful in the war effort to ones seen as supportive, like Poland and Romania. The White House did not comment on the report, but a senior U.S. military official in Europe said that options were being reviewed.

《华尔街日报》周三报道，特朗普正在考虑将驻欧美军从那些被认为在这场战争中不够配合的国家，转移到波兰和罗马尼亚等被视为态度更为支持的国家。白宫未对该报道发表评论，但一名驻欧洲的美军高级官员表示，相关选项正在评估中。

Mr. Trump has threatened NATO many times, only to largely preserve the status quo. In the president’s latest outburst, some analysts also see a familiar inclination to attack a weaker party, especially given Mr. Trump’s inability to compel Iran to surrender after five weeks of bombardment.

特朗普曾多次威胁北约，但最终大体维持现状。在一些分析人士看来，总统最近的这次爆发也体现了一种熟悉的倾向——攻击相对弱势的一方，尤其是在经过五周轰炸后仍未能迫使伊朗屈服的背景下。

“Beating up on Europe and NATO has really no domestic cost,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s quite typical for Trump: When things are going wrong, he finds the weakest person in the room and blames them.”

“对欧洲和北约发难在国内几乎没有成本，”曾任美国国务院官员、现任欧洲对外关系委员会研究主任的杰里米·夏皮罗表示，“这很符合特朗普的一贯风格：当事情进展不顺时，他会找房间里最弱的那个人来指责。”

“When we’re serious, we don’t every day say the opposite of what we said the day before,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said last week, adding, cuttingly: “And, maybe, one shouldn’t speak every day.”

“当我们认真对待一个事的时候，我们不会每天都说和前一天完全相反的话，”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙上周说道，并尖锐地补充道：“而且，也许，一个人不应该每天都发言。”

It sounded like a grown-up speaking down to an obstreperous child, and that was probably what the French president intended. The target of his admonition was, of course, Donald Trump. Mr. Macron was speaking shortly after the American president had issued another boorish rant that included rude comments about the French president and his wife.

这听起来像是一个成年人居高临下地训斥一个吵闹的孩子，而这很可能正是法国总统的本意。他的这番训诫针对的当然是唐纳德·特朗普。马克龙是在美国总统又一场粗鲁的咆哮之后不久发表这番言论的，那次咆哮中包含了对法国总统及其妻子的无礼评论。

Mr. Macron is one of the few European leaders who have dealt with Mr. Trump almost from the first day of his first term. His transition from initial deference and feigned friendship to very public rebuke reflects the degree to which respect for the American president has fallen among European leaders and their publics. Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, about which NATO allies were not consulted and in which they subsequently declined to participate, has made clear that Europeans no longer defer to Mr. Trump as the de facto “leader of the free world.”

马克龙是为数不多的几乎从特朗普第一个任期第一天起就与他打交道的欧洲领导人之一。他从最初的顺从和假装友好，转变为如今公开的指责，这反映出欧洲领导人和民众对美国总统的尊重已经下降到何种程度。特朗普对伊朗发动的战争事先未与北约盟国商议，这些盟国随后也拒绝参与，这清楚地表明欧洲人不再把特朗普视为事实上的“自由世界领袖”而唯其马首是瞻。

Mr. Trump’s comments about Mr. Macron and his wife were made at an Easter lunch with Christian leaders and close allies. They were not intended for public consumption, but they somehow made it onto YouTube long enough to be downloaded and widely shared. Typical of Trump tirades, they are richly laced with grievance, malice and crudeness: In addition to mocking the Macrons, he bashes NATO and the Supreme Court. The video is especially discomfiting when Mr. Trump’s spiritual adviser Paula White compares the president to Jesus Christ. (“You were betrayed and arrested. And falsely accused,” she said.)

特朗普关于马克龙及其妻子的评论是在与基督教领袖和亲密盟友共进复活节午餐时发表的。这些话原本不打算公开，但不知何故还是流到了YouTube上，并在那上面存在了足够长的时间，并被下载和广泛传播。这些言论有着特朗普一贯的咆哮风格，充满怨恨、恶意和粗俗：除了嘲笑马克龙夫妇，他还猛烈抨击北约和最高法院。视频中尤其令人不安的是，特朗普的灵修顾问葆拉·怀特将总统比作耶稣基督。（“你被背叛、被逮捕。还受到莫须有的指控，”她说道。）

But that luncheon talk was only a squall in a period in which Mr. Trump, fired up by an Iran war that was not going as he liked, let loose fiery threats to annihilate the country. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you bunch of crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH!” was what Mr. Trump decided to post on the morning of Easter Sunday, with “Praise be to Allah” gratuitously tacked on. On Tuesday, he declared that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” effectively threatening a grave violation of the Geneva Conventions. Eighty-eight minutes before the apocalyptic 8 p.m. deadline, Mr. Trump backed down.

但那次午餐谈话只是一个短暂的风波。在此期间，被伊朗战争不利局面激怒的特朗普放任自己发出要消灭该国的激烈威胁。“周二是伊朗的发电厂日和桥梁日，打包到一起了。前所未有！！！打开他妈的海峡，你们这些狗杂种，否则你们将活在地狱里——等着瞧吧！”这是特朗普在复活节周日上午决定发布的帖子，最后还平白无故地加上了一句“赞美安拉”。周二，他宣称“整个文明今晚将消亡，永不复返”，实际上是在威胁严重违反《日内瓦公约》。在距离那个世界末日般的晚上8点最后期限还有88分钟时，特朗普退缩了。

There was a time when Mr. Trump’s stream of insults, falsehoods, expletives, threats and malice would have raised questions among foreign leaders as to whether Mr. Trump was being deliberately obnoxious to achieve a goal — say, to get European allies to pay more for NATO, or as a variant on the “madman theory” strategy devised by President Richard Nixon to convince rivals that the president was dangerously unpredictable. They tried to appease Mr. Trump with praise and pomp, hoping to steer him in a more productive direction.

曾几何时，特朗普连珠炮般的侮辱、谎言、脏话、威胁和恶意会让外国领导人质疑特朗普是否在故意表现得令人讨厌以达到某个目的——比如迫使欧洲盟国为北约支付更多费用，或者作为理查德·尼克松总统发明的“疯子理论”策略的变体，试图让对手相信总统危险且不可预测。他们曾试图用赞美和盛大仪式来安抚特朗普，希望引导他走向更有建设性的方向。

But more than a year into Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, the Europeans, and much of the world, have concluded that no amount of bowing or scraping will win more than fleeting approval from him. The barrage of tariffs that opened the second Trump administration, aimed indiscriminately at friend and foe; the brazen demands that Denmark cede Greenland to the United States, and now the absence of any consultation with European allies before joining Israel in an attack on Iran that has affected the entire world, have erased any illusion among most Europeans that Mr. Trump is anything but an unpredictable, vindictive and uncontrollable danger.

但在特朗普重返白宫一年多之后，欧洲以及世界上许多其他国家已经得出结论：无论如何卑躬屈膝，都只能换来他短暂的认可。第二届特朗普政府上台伊始就对盟友和对手同时发动无差别的关税攻势；公然要求丹麦将格陵兰岛割让给美国；以及如今在与以色列共同袭击伊朗——一个影响了全世界的行动——之前完全不与欧洲盟国协商，这些都已打破了大多数欧洲人最后的幻想：特朗普绝非一个可预测、讲道理的伙伴，而是一个不可预测、报复心强且无法控制的危险人物。

Mr. Trump’s current beef with NATO is that none of its members responded to his call for military help in opening the Strait of Hormuz, raising questions about whether he will try to pull the United States out of the alliance, or whether the alliance even has any meaning now. So far, however, that has not persuaded any European leaders to capitulate, despite Mr. Trump’s constant trolling. Britain’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, has said he will stick to his position on the war “whatever the noise.” Last month, the German defense minister, Boris Pistorius, struck a similar note, saying, “This is not our war.” Mr. Trump responded by calling NATO allies “cowards.”

特朗普目前对北约的不满在于，没有任何一个成员国响应他提供军事帮助以打开霍尔木兹海峡的呼吁，这让人质疑他是否会试图让美国退出北约，或者这个联盟现在是否还有任何意义。然而，到目前为止，这并未说服任何欧洲领导人屈服，尽管特朗普不断嘲讽。英国首相基尔·斯塔默表示，他将坚持自己在战争问题上的立场，“不管有什么噪音。”上个月，德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯也表达了类似态度：“这不是我们的战争。”特朗普对此的回应是称北约盟国为“懦夫”。

Even Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, one of Mr. Trump’s closest European allies, distanced herself from his seemingly unprecedented threats to Iran this week. “It is crucial to clearly distinguish between the responsibilities of a regime and the fate of millions of ordinary citizens,” she said. That effectively left Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, as Mr. Trump’s most loyal ally in Europe, which explains why Vice President JD Vance was dispatched to prop up Mr. Orban in advance of an election on Sunday that he may well lose. Mr. Orban’s stance on the Iran war, however, is unclear, especially after The Washington Post reported on Wednesday that Hungary offered to help Iran in 2024 after Israel caused thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, to explode.

即使是意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼——特朗普在欧洲最亲密的盟友之一——本周也与他对伊朗发出的看似前所未有的威胁保持了距离。“必须明确区分一个政权的责任与数百万普通公民的命运，”她说道。这实际上让匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班成为了特朗普在欧洲最忠诚的盟友，这也解释了为什么副总统JD·万斯被派去在周日选举前为欧尔班撑腰——欧尔班在这场选举中可能会落败。然而，欧尔班在伊朗战争上的立场并不清晰，尤其是《华盛顿邮报》周三报道称，2024年以色列让伊朗在黎巴嫩的代理人真主党的数千部寻呼机爆炸后，匈牙利曾提出帮助伊朗。

Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, who is considered something of a Trump whisperer, may be one of the very few — if not the last — European leaders still clinging to the policy of flattery. He has actively tried to maintain friendly ties to Mr. Trump, suggesting gamely that Mr. Trump’s anger at the alliance was understandable and would pass. But in a social media post after talks with Mr. Rutte, the president reiterated his ire and threw in Greenland for good measure: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”

被认为擅于跟特朗普沟通的北约秘书长马克·吕特可能仍是少数——如果不是最后一个——仍在坚持奉承政策的欧洲领导人。他一直积极试图与特朗普保持友好关系，巧妙地表示特朗普对联盟的愤怒是可以理解的，而且会过去。但在与吕特会谈后，特朗普在社交媒体帖子中重申了自己的愤怒，并顺带提到了格陵兰岛：“北约在我们需要他们的时候不在，以后我们再需要他们时也不会在。还记得格陵兰岛吗，那块巨大的、治理糟糕的冰块！！！”

At least there was no new talk of leaving NATO, for now. The shouty missive elicited no major pushback from foreign leaders. This was Mr. Trump being Mr. Trump: tedious, repetitive, vulgar. He is still dangerous, and he could still unleash terror on the people of Iran should the cease-fire collapse. But his uppercase blasts, chest-thumping rants and coarse insults are more likely now to draw a Gallic shrug.

至少目前还没有新的退出北约的言论。这条咆哮式的帖子没有引发外国领导人的强烈反击。这就是特朗普本色：乏味、重复、粗俗。他仍然危险，如果停火崩溃，他仍有可能对伊朗人民释放恐怖。但他那些全大写的咆哮、捶胸顿足的狂言和粗鄙的侮辱，如今更可能换来的只是一次高卢式的耸肩。