The emerging shock of climbing oil prices rumbled through Asia, where countries, rich and poor, tried to contain the economic fallout from the escalating war in the Middle East.

随着油价不断攀升的冲击开始显现，亚洲各国无论富裕还是贫穷，都在努力遏制中东不断升级的战争带来的经济冲击。

South Korea announced on Monday it would cap prices at the pump for the first time in nearly 30 years. In India, the city of Pune has temporarily suspended gas-based cremations, asking customers to use wood or electricity instead. Pakistan said it would increase gasoline prices by about 20 percent to throttle demand from regular drivers and allow diesel costs to remain low for trucks and buses.

韩国周一宣布，将对加油站的油价设定上限，这是近30年来首次。在印度，浦纳市已暂停使用天然气进行火化，要求民众改用木材或电力。巴基斯坦表示，将把汽油价格提高约20%，以抑制普通驾驶者的用油需求，同时让柴油价格保持低位，以减轻卡车和公交车的负担。

As the price of crude oil soared above $100 а barrel, governments are being forced to take increasingly extreme measures to protect consumers from punishing price increases and to constrain energy use to prevent shortages in a conflict with no end in sight. Few parts of the world are as acutely exposed as Asia to the curtailment of oil and gas from the Middle East, which accounts for a majority of the region’s energy imports.

随着原油价格飙升至每桶100美元以上，各国政府被迫采取越来越极端的措施，一方面保护消费者免受油价大幅上涨的冲击，另一方面限制能源使用，以防在这场看不到尽头的冲突中出现能源短缺。世界上很少有地区像亚洲这样对中东石油和天然气供应减少如此敏感，因为中东占该地区能源进口的大部分。

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and Oman that separates the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producers from their customers. Historically, roughly 20 million barrels pass through it each day, most of it bound for Asia. The strait has been effectively closed to seaborne traffic because of the conflict, leaving governments scrambling for solutions to keep fuel flowing and prices from spiraling out of control.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿曼之间的一条狭窄通道，它将世界最大的石油和天然气生产国与它们的客户分隔开来。从以往来看，每天约有2000万桶石油通过这里，其中大部分运往亚洲。由于这场冲突，该海峡实际上已经对海上运输关闭，使得各国政府不得不急忙寻找解决办法，以确保燃料供应并防止价格失控。

“There’s no replacement for that,” said Edward C. Chow, a former executive at Chevron who led international external affairs and managed operations in China. “The market sees a physical supply shortage.”

“这是无可替代的，”曾在雪佛龙负责国际对外事务和中国业务的爱德华·周说。“市场看到的是实打实的供应短缺。”

At gas stations across Hanoi, Vietnam, “sold out” signs have started to appear, with around 15 to 20 stations shutting their pumps in recent days. The authorities tried to reassure people on Monday that the country had enough oil in reserve for at least a month, urging residents not to stockpile gasoline or diesel.

在越南河内的加油站，“售罄”的标志已经开始出现，最近几天约有15到20家加油站停止供油。当地政府周一试图安抚民众，称该国至少还有一个月的石油储备，并呼吁民众不要囤积汽油或柴油。

Hoang Van Thang, 29, a motorbike taxi driver, said he waited 30 minutes to fill up his tank at a gas station in central Hanoi; he usually waited five minutes. He said his daily spending on gasoline had risen about 20 percent over the past week as fuel prices continued to climb.

29岁的摩的司机黄文胜（音）说，他在河内市中心的一家加油站等了30分钟才加满油，而平时只需要等五分钟。他说，随着油价持续上涨，在过去一周里，他每天花在汽油上的开支已经增加了约20%。

“The higher gasoline prices are eating into my daily income,” he said. “The increase in gasoline prices will push up the cost of everything else, from vegetables and meat to a bowl of pho.”

“油价上涨正在瓜分我每天的收入，”他说。“汽油价格上涨会推高所有其他商品的价格，从蔬菜、肉到河粉。”

Even if fighting stops soon, officials and analysts say the disruption to energy supply chains could last weeks.

官员和分析人士表示，即使战斗很快停止，能源供应链的中断也可能会持续数周。

Across Asia, governments have responded in different ways. Some are looking to limit the pain for consumers, while others are trying to ration scarce supplies.

在整个亚洲，各国政府采取了不同的应对方式。有些国家试图减轻消费者的痛苦，而另一些则试图定量配给稀缺的供应。

Tapping reserves.

动用储备。

Japan, South Korea and China are not ruling out the possibility of drawing down their vast reserves of oil set aside for times of crisis.

日本、韩国和中国都不排除动用为危机时期准备的大量石油储备的可能性。

When asked by a reporter whether China has decided to tap its reserves, Guo Jiakun, spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said in the briefing on Monday that the country “will do what is necessary to protect its energy security.”

当记者询问中国是否已经决定动用石油储备时，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆在周一的例行记者会上表示，中国“将采取必要措施保障自身能源安全”。

In Japan, government officials have instructed domestic oil-storage bases to prepare for a potential release of strategic reserves, local media reported on Monday. In a news conference, the country’s chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, said that no formal decision had been made to tap the reserves.

据日本媒体周一报道，日本政府官员已指示国内的石油储备基地为可能释放战略储备做好准备。在新闻发布会上，日本内阁官房长官木原稔表示，尚未就动用储备做出正式决定。

But accessing petroleum reserves is easier said than done, according to June Goh, a Singapore-based oil market analyst at Sparta, a commodities data firm. Reserves may not be easily retrieved, and it is challenging to get fuel to refiners before existing inventory runs out, she said.

但大宗商品数据公司Sparta驻新加坡的石油市场分析师吴朱妮（音）表示，动用石油储备说起来容易做起来难。她说，储备可能不易取用，而且在现有库存耗尽之前将燃料送到炼油厂手中也具有挑战性。

On Friday, Mitsubishi Chemical Group began scaling back production at a plant north of Tokyo that produces ethylene, a gas that is used to make plastics. Production at the plant was reduced after a disruption to the procurement of naphtha, a crude-derived feedstock used in ethylene production, according to a spokeswoman.

周五，三菱化学集团开始缩减其位于东京以北的一家工厂的产量。乙烯是一种用于制造塑料的气体。公司发言人称，该工厂减产的原因是用于乙烯生产的石脑油采购受阻。石脑油是一种由原油提炼而来的原料。

韩国总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令相关部门严厉打击囤积行为。

Capping prices.

设定价格上限。

In South Korea, officials on Monday moved to directly intervene in fuel markets. President Lee Jae Myung called for a price cap on gasoline and diesel and ordered the authorities to crack down on hoarding, collusion and price manipulation by refiners and gas stations.

在韩国，官员们周一采取行动直接干预燃料市场。总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令有关部门严厉打击炼油厂和加油站的囤积、串通以及价格操纵行为。

Price caps generally apply at the pump, limiting how much gas stations can charge motorists even as global crude prices surge. But such measures can shift the financial pressure elsewhere.

价格上限通常适用于零售环节，即在全球原油价格飙升的情况下，限制加油站向车主收取的费用。但此类措施可能会将财务压力转嫁到其他环节。

“If the government caps the retail price but doesn’t subsidize it, the cost falls on refiners,” Ms. Goh said. With crude prices climbing rapidly, forcing refiners to absorb the difference is not economical and “not a feasible solution in the short or medium term,” she said.

“如果政府设定零售价格上限但不提供补贴，那么成本就会落在炼油厂身上，”吴朱妮说。她表示，随着原油价格快速攀升，强迫炼油企业承担这部分差价并不经济，而且“在中短期内都不是可行的解决方案”。

The South Korean government has not yet announced how it will compensate suppliers for losses incurred from the price cap, the first of its kind in South Korea since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, said Kim Yong-beom, the chief policy coordinator at Mr. Lee’s office.

韩国总统室政策室长金容范表示，韩国政府尚未宣布将如何补偿因设定价格上限而遭受损失的供应商。这是自1997年亚洲金融危机以来韩国首次采取类似措施。

Taiwan, which imports more than 96 percent of its energy and gets about 60 percent of its oil through the strait, is racing to lock in supplies before they run out. About a quarter of its natural gas comes from Qatar, which halted production last week after Iranian strikes on two of its gas facilities.

台湾约96%以上的能源依赖进口，其中约60%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。如今，在供应耗尽之前，台湾正加紧锁定新的能源来源。台湾约四分之一的天然气来自卡塔尔，而卡塔尔在伊朗对其两处天然气设施发动袭击后，于上周暂停了生产。

To cover the shortfall through April, Taiwan needed to secure 22 vessels’ worth of natural gas shipments and had already contracted for 20 of them, the minister of economic affairs, Kung Ming-hsin, said Monday. “There will absolutely not be any gas shortages or power shortages,” he said. Taiwan also raised gasoline and diesel prices on Monday, but it said it was lowering commodity taxes at the same time to ease the impact on consumers and industry.

经济部长龚明鑫周一表示，为了弥补截至4月的供应缺口，台湾需要确保22艘液化天然气运输船的运量，目前已为其中20艘签订了合同。“绝对不会出现天然气短缺或电力短缺。”他说。台湾周一还上调了汽油和柴油价格，但同时表示将下调商品税，以减轻对消费者和产业的影响。

菲律宾的一家印刷厂。为节约能源，该国多个地方政府自周一起改为四天工作制。

Reducing demand.

减少需求。

Other governments are instead focusing on reducing energy usage.

其他国家政府则将重点放在减少能源消耗上。

Several local governments in the Philippines shifted to four-day work weeks on Monday. The governments of Manila, the capital; Cebu; and Negros Occidental said they were following President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s order for the executive branch to slash the number of working days.

菲律宾的多个地方政府周一开始实行每周四天工作制。首都马尼拉以及宿务和西内格罗斯省政府表示，他们正在执行总统费迪南德·马科斯二世关于行政部门减少工作天数的命令。

“We are victims of a war that is not of our choosing,” Mr. Marcos said in a statement on Friday, adding that the government was uncertain when the war would end.

马科斯周五在声明中表示：“我们是一场并非我们选择的战争的受害者。”他还说，政府并不确定战争何时会结束。

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in Asia to an oil price shock, with nearly 90 percent of its oil imports sourced from the Middle East. Unlike its neighbors, such as Indonesia and Thailand, which are partially shielded by fuel subsidies, prices at the pump in the Philippines are more market-driven.

菲律宾是亚洲受油价冲击影响最大的国家之一，其近90%的石油进口来自中东。与印尼和泰国等邻国（这些国家通过燃料补贴在一定程度上缓冲油价上涨）不同，菲律宾的燃油价格更多由市场决定。

Bangladesh is also in a dire situation. On Friday, the country’s new government said it had ordered fuel rationing and closed universities to conserve electricity and reduce transportation needs.

孟加拉国也处境艰难。上周五，该国新政府表示已下令实行燃料配给，并关闭大学以节约电力、减少交通需求。

In recent years, Bangladesh has been straining its national budget to buy gas for power generation. With most of its electricity now generated by gas-burning plants, it has become dependent on imports from the Gulf. The country’s new leaders, elected last month after protests toppled the previous authoritarian government, are desperate to avoid the kind of economic challenges that pressured the previous leaders.

近年来，孟加拉国为购买发电所需的天然气而承受沉重的财政压力。由于如今大部分电力来自燃气电厂，该国已经变得依赖从海湾地区进口天然气。在抗议活动推翻了之前的威权政府后，上月当选的国家新领导人迫切希望避免那种曾给前领导人带来压力的经济挑战。

In Vietnam, after two hikes in the price that the government sets for gas, diesel and household cooking gas — and the expectation of further increases — many people around Vietnam have lined up to fill up before prices go up again, while others are pausing travel plans.

在越南，在政府两次上调汽油、柴油和居民用燃气价格，并且市场预计还将继续上涨之后，许多越南民众纷纷排队，赶在下一轮涨价之前加满油，而另一些人则暂停了出行计划。

Fishermen along the coast are already delaying their trips, at the start of peak season for fishing in the South China Sea. Truck drivers are also struggling to maintain their usual schedules for bringing supplies to factories, and food and finished goods to ports.

沿海渔民已经开始推迟出海时间，而此时正是南海渔业旺季的开始。卡车司机也难以维持平时的运输节奏，无法及时将物资运往工厂，将食品和成品运往港口。

Fuel prices could soar, and stay elevated for months. That could make groceries and other shipped goods more expensive. And consumers and businesses, stung by the rising costs, could choose to spend less, constraining economic growth.

燃料价格可能会飙升，并持续数月保持高位。这可能导致食品和其他运输货物的价格上涨。而受到生活成本上涨打击的消费者和企业可能会选择减少开支，从而限制经济增长。

In the eyes of economists, that is the increasingly real and dire picture from the U.S.-led war with Iran, now in its second week. It may be a conflict of President Trump’s making, but it is becoming the world’s latest economic headache, one that has sent foreign leaders scrambling for ways to contain the possible fallout.

在美国领导的对伊战争进入第二周之际，这是经济学家眼中日益真实且严峻的图景。尽管冲突可能是特朗普总统亲手制造的，但它正成为全球最新的经济难题，迫使各国领导人匆忙寻找遏制潜在连锁反应的方法。

At the heart of the panic was a surge in the price of oil, which at one point on Monday shot above $100 a barrel. Because energy is central to the functioning of the global economy, the turbulence prompted heightened fears about a prolonged conflict that could exact a deep financial toll around the world, including on Americans.

恐慌的核心是油价激增，周一油价一度冲破每桶100美元。由于能源是全球经济运作的核心，这种动荡引发了人们对长期冲突的深度担忧，认为这可能给全世界（包括美国人）造成沉重的财务代价。

In response, world leaders convened an emergency meeting on Monday of the Group of 7 countries, where finance ministers considered, yet decided against, tapping their national stores of oil to increase available supply. It was only after Mr. Trump asserted later in the day that the war was nearing its conclusion that oil prices began to calm down again, falling to around $85 a barrel.

作为回应，世界领导人于周一召开了七国集团紧急会议。会上，各国财长考虑了动用国家石油储备以增加供应的方案，但最终决定放弃。直到当天晚些时候，特朗普声称战争已接近尾声，油价才开始回落，跌至每桶85美元左右。

“I knew oil prices would go up if I did this,” Mr. Trump told a news conference in Florida. “They’ve gone up probably less than I thought they’d go up.”

特朗普在佛罗里达州的一次新闻发布会上表示：“我知道这样做会导致油价上涨。但涨幅可能比我想象的要小。”

That fit a pattern for Mr. Trump, who has frequently brushed aside any economic blowback posed by his policy choices, including his military strikes on Iran. Previously, Mr. Trump has even described the sharp turn in gasoline prices as a “very small price to pay” for national security. The comments have offered a stark contrast with the president’s boasts about falling gas prices earlier in his second term, a development that he frequently portrayed as a strong gauge of the nation’s trajectory.

这符合特朗普的一贯风格：他经常对自己的政策选择（包括对伊朗的军事打击）所带来的经济反作用嗤之以鼻。此前，特朗普甚至将汽油价格的急升描述为国家安全的“极小代价”。这些言论与他在第二任期初期吹嘘油价下跌形成鲜明对比，当时他经常将这种下跌描绘成国家走向强盛的重要指标。

But the impact seemed anything but small for Americans. The average price of a gallon of gasoline reached nearly $3.48 nationally on Monday, according to AAA, a 16 percent increase from a week earlier. The surge in energy costs initially spooked financial markets, leading to sharp declines in the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes, which rebounded as the White House looked to tamp down concerns about the oil market.

但对美国人来说，影响绝非微不足道。根据美国汽车协会的数据，周一全美平均汽油价格达到每加仑近3.48美元，较一周前上涨了16%。能源成本的飙升最初惊吓了金融市场，导致标普500和其他主要股指大幅下跌。随后随着白宫试图平息对石油市场的担忧，股市有所回升。

“The White House is in constant coordination with the relevant agencies on this important issue, as it is a top priority to the president,” Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement.

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示：“白宫正就这一重要问题与相关机构保持密切配合，因为这是总统的首要任务。”

She described the surge in oil prices as a “short-term change,” adding that it would again “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”

她将油价飙升描述为“短期波动”，并称一旦“史诗愤怒行动”的目标达成，油价将再次“大幅下降”。

In many ways, the fallout around Iran has been similar to the global panic that greeted the start of Mr. Trump’s trade war nearly a year ago. Then, too, economists warned about looming upheaval, while world leaders panicked over the consequences for their economies. Some of the dire predictions came to pass, jolting consumers and businesses in ways still being felt today.

在许多方面，围绕伊朗局势产生的连锁反应与近一年前特朗普贸易战爆发时的全球恐慌十分相似。当时，经济学家同样警告称动荡即将来临，各国领导人也为其经济后果感到恐慌。而那些严峻的预测中，有些确实成为了现实，给消费者和企业带来了至今仍能感受到的冲击。

Yet Mr. Trump remained undeterred in both cases, forging ahead despite warnings that his strategy could inflict lasting economic damage, perhaps even touching off a global recession.

然而，在这两种情况下，特朗普都毫不动摇。尽管有人警告他的策略可能造成持久的经济损害，甚至引发全球衰退，他依然一意孤行。

“This is a very concerning shock to consumers, which have been a driving force in the economy,” said Tim Mahedy, chief economist at Access/Macro, a research firm, who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

研究机构Access/Macro的首席经济学家、曾任职于旧金山联邦储备银行的蒂姆·马赫迪表示：“对于一直以来作为经济驱动力的消费者来说，这是一个非常令人担忧的冲击。”

He noted that consumer spending, which drives roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic growth, was the only sector that expanded throughout most of last year. Now, with Americans having run through their savings, Mr. Mahedy said, the energy shock is “really hitting at a bad time.”

他指出，占美国经济增长约70%的消费支出是去年大部分时间里唯一增长的领域。马赫迪表示，现在美国人的储蓄已经耗尽，能源冲击“确实在一个糟糕的时机袭来”。

“I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists,” he said.

他说：“我非常担心，如果这种情况持续下去，可能会将我们推入经济衰退。”

Exactly how the war will ripple across the global economy may mostly depend on one factor — its duration. That’s because the conflict has obstructed shipping in the Persian Gulf, which has snarled much of the world’s oil and gas. The longer the slowdown, the worse the toll will be, though the administration has signaled it believes shipments could restart soon.

战争将如何波及全球经济，很大程度上取决于一个因素——持续时间。这是因为冲突阻碍了波斯湾的航运，而那里扼守着世界相当一部分石油和天然气的命脉。航运放缓的时间越长，代价就越惨重，尽管政府已发出信号，认为运输可能很快恢复。

If U.S. strikes on Iran conclude in a few weeks, most economists believe that the rise in gas prices and other disruptions may prove short-lived. But that doesn’t mean that the war will be painless, especially for Americans who are already suffering a real pinch at the pump.

如果美国对伊朗的打击在几周内结束，大多数经济学家认为，汽油价格上涨和其他干扰可能是短暂的。但这并不意味着战争是无痛的，尤其是对于那些已经感受到油价压力的美国人来说。

“If $100-per-barrel oil is sustained, you’re going to see the impact most directly in less consumer spending,” said Bernard Yaros, the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He added that low-income consumers would shoulder the heaviest burden because energy accounts for so much of their monthly spending.

“如果油价维持在每桶100美元，最直接的影响将是消费支出的减少，”牛津经济研究院美国首席经济学家伯纳德·雅罗斯表示。他还说，低收入消费者将面临最重的负担，因为能源支出占其月度开支的比重极大。

If hostilities continue for many months, however, the damage to the global economy could be more pronounced. Oil could stay above $100 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, carrying severe repercussions that would make goods more expensive and slow global growth, said Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

然而，如果敌对行动持续数月，对全球经济的损害可能会更加显著。EY-Parthenon首席经济学家格雷格·达科表示，在最坏的情况下，油价可能保持在每桶100美元以上，这将产生严重的后果，导致商品涨价并减缓全球增长。

A protracted conflict could cause inflation globally to rise about two percentage points faster than it would have otherwise, he estimated. In the United States, that means inflation could top 4 percent this year. The surge in prices would coincide with a slowdown that could tip off a recession and depress total U.S. output. The nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of that output, would grow only 1.6 percent in 2026, compared with the 2.4 percent originally projected, Mr. Daco found.

据他估算，持久的冲突可能会导致全球通胀率比正常水平高出约两个百分点。在美国，这意味着今年的通胀率可能突破4%。物价飙升将与经济放缓同时发生，这可能引发衰退并压低美国总产出。达科发现，2026年美国国内生产总值将仅增长1.6%，而最初的预测为2.4%。

These new risks have surfaced at a vexing moment for the U.S. economy, which is still growing when prices are high and the labor market is showing new signs of weakness. The competing forces are the result of factors including the meteoric rise of artificial intelligence and Mr. Trump’s policies, including his steep tariffs and mass deportations.

这些新风险出现在美国经济的一个棘手时刻：尽管物价高企，经济仍在增长，但劳动力市场已表现出疲软的新迹象。这些相互冲突的力量是由多种因素造成的，包括人工智能的飞速崛起，以及特朗普的政策，包括高额关税和大规模驱逐出境。

“This administration is a sequence of supply shocks,” Mr. Mahedy said. “This is coming on top of two other very significant supply shocks, tariffs and immigration policy.”

“本届政府就像是一连串的供应冲击，”马赫迪说。“眼前的冲击是叠加在关税和移民政策这两个非常剧烈的供应冲击之上的。”

Despite those warnings, the Trump administration has remained bullish about the pace of the war with Iran. Asked this weekend if he was concerned about the rise in gas prices, Mr. Trump told reporters: “No. This is a short excursion into something that should’ve been done for 47 years. No president had the guts to do it.”

尽管有这些警告，特朗普政府对战争的进程仍保持乐观。本周末，当被问及是否担心汽油价格上涨时，特朗普告诉记者：“不。这只是一次简短的出征，为的是一件本该在47年前就完成的事。以前没有哪位总统有这个胆量去做。”

But Mr. Trump has also not ruled out sending troops into the country, which would mark a dramatic escalation in the fighting. With an ever-shifting definition for what might render the operation a success, the president has taken some steps to insulate Americans from economic fallout.

但特朗普也没有排除向该国派遣地面部队的可能性，这将标志着战斗的剧烈升级。随着对行动“成功”定义的不断变动，总统已采取一些措施来保护美国人免受经济连锁反应的影响。

Last week, the U.S. government said it would offer limited protection and insurance for tankers crossing the Persian Gulf. The Treasury Department began taking steps that could allow for sanctioned Russian oil to be sold to other countries, including India.

上周，美国政府表示将为穿越波斯湾的油轮提供有限的保护和保险。财政部开始采取措施，可能允许被制裁的俄罗斯石油出售给包括印度在内的其他国家。

Lifting those sanctions, which were strengthened recently in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marked a dramatic turnabout for Mr. Trump, who had previously threatened withering tariffs against countries that purchased Russian energy. It was also an effort to bolster the oil supply, even as the president’s top aides insisted that they would not tap U.S. reserves to ease strains on the market.

取消这些制裁（由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，这些制裁近期刚刚得到加强）标志着特朗普态度的戏剧性转变，他此前曾威胁要对购买俄罗斯能源的国家征收惩罚性关税。此举也是为了增加石油供应，尽管总统的高级助手们坚称他们不会动用美国储备来缓解市场压力。

On its face, Iran’s choice of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message of continuity to a country battered by war. It was also a show of open defiance to Iran’s attackers.

表面上看，伊朗选择穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊出任新的最高领袖，是在向饱受战争蹂躏的国家传递延续性的信号。这同时也是对伊朗的攻击者公开展现强硬态度。

The United States and Israel killed the new leader’s father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the opening salvos of their attack on Iran. They had openly warned Iran against replacing him with his 56-year-old son — a hard-line cleric seen as close to Iran’s top military force.

美国和以色列在对伊朗发动攻击的初期就炸死了这位新领袖的父亲、前任最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。两国曾公开警告伊朗，不要让阿里·哈梅内伊56岁的儿子接班——穆杰塔巴是一名强硬派教士，被视为与伊朗最高军事力量关系密切。

The group of 88 clerics known as the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei despite those threats. That choice risks prolonging the war and creating more uncertainty for the country, should he meet the same fate as his father.

由88名教士组成的“专家会议”不顾这些威胁，依然推选了穆杰塔巴。这一选择可能会延长战争，一旦他遭遇与父亲同样的命运，也会给国家带来更大不确定性。

Iran was already deeply divided between those who support the clerical ruling system and those who oppose it. Choosing another hard-line leader may only deepen that divide.

伊朗国内支持神职统治体系与反对该体系的阵营本已严重分裂，再次选择一名强硬派领导人只会进一步加深这种分裂。

The decision is “laden with peril,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

国际危机组织资深伊朗分析师阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这一决定“充满危险”。

Iran’s new supreme leader lost not only his father to U.S.-Israeli strikes, but also his mother, wife, and daughter, Mr. Vaez said. That means Iran is now “concentrating power in the hands of a man loathed by much of his own people and consumed by fury toward Israel and the United States.”

瓦埃兹说，新的伊朗最高领袖不仅在美以打击中失去了父亲，还失去了母亲、妻子和女儿。这意味着伊朗如今“将权力集中到了一个被本国大部分民众厌恶、且对以色列和美国充满愤怒的人手中”。

President Trump called the younger Khamenei an “unacceptable” choice, and the Israeli military warned it would “continue to pursue every successor.”

特朗普总统称，小哈梅内伊是“不可接受”的选择，以色列军方则警告称，将“继续追剿任何继任者”。

As a political figure, the younger Khamenei is a relative unknown, both to Iranians and the world.

作为政治人物，无论对伊朗民众还是国际社会，小哈梅内伊都相对鲜为人知。

The older Khamenei was a known entity, unflinching in his resolve to crack down on internal dissent, as authorities killed thousands in protests in January, and insistent on the right to uranium enrichment as part of Iran’s nuclear program. Publicly, he ruled out actually building a nuclear bomb.

老哈梅内伊是外界熟知的人物，他在镇压国内异见时毫不手软——今年1月，当局在抗议活动中杀害了数千人；他坚持伊朗核计划中包含铀浓缩权利，但在公开场合排除实际制造核弹的可能。

阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊，摄于2024年。

Nevertheless, the concern that under his leadership, Iran could seek a nuclear weapon was held up as a reason for the United States and Israel to go to war.

尽管如此，外界担心在他领导下，伊朗可能谋求核武器，这也被美以当作发动战争的理由。

What is known about the new supreme leader is that he was influential behind the scenes while working in his father’s office, and is closely tied to Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

关于这位新任最高领袖，已知的是，他在父亲的办公室任职期间便在幕后颇具影响力，并与伊朗强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系紧密。

Founded to defend the Islamic Republic that was established after Iran’s 1979 revolution, the Revolutionary Guards have not only become Iran’s most powerful military force, they wield considerable political and economic influence. Their leaders have directed the waves of retaliatory ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region.

革命卫队成立的初衷是保卫1979年伊朗革命后建立的伊斯兰共和国，如今它不仅成为伊朗最强大的军事力量，还掌握着巨大的政治与经济影响力。其领导人指挥了多轮报复性弹道导弹与无人机袭击，目标包括以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和使馆。

The younger Khamenei was considered the preferred choice of the Revolutionary Guards for the supreme leader post.

小哈梅内伊被视为革命卫队属意的最高领袖人选。

“It is definitely a consolidation and empowerment of the deep state in Iran,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan.

米兰天主教大学伊朗问题专家阿卜杜勒拉苏尔·迪夫萨拉尔表示：“这无疑是伊朗深层国家势力的巩固与权力强化。”

Some experts worry the younger Khamenei could take the step that experts say his father never did, and race to build a nuclear bomb.

部分专家担心，小哈梅内伊可能迈出其父从未迈出的一步——加速研发核武器。

“A war that was meant to prevent Iran from having a bomb could be the war that actually pushed Iran beyond the Rubicon to reach a bomb,” said Danny Citronowicz, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, a think tank, and former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence.

智库大西洋理事会分析师、前以色列军事情报局伊朗部门主管丹尼·希特罗诺维奇说：“一场旨在阻止伊朗拥有核弹的战争反而可能真正推动伊朗破釜沉舟，最终造出核弹。”

Iranian officials appear to be signaling that they are digging in for a longer fight. On Monday, the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned against more attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.

伊朗官员似乎在释放信号，表明他们准备打一场更持久的战争。周一，外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇警告，不要进一步袭击伊朗能源设施与核场所。

“We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites,” he wrote on social media. “And we, too, have many surprises in store.”

“我们知道美国正在图谋针对我们的石油和核设施，”他在社交媒体上写道，“而我们也准备了许多惊喜。”

Internally, some political analysts argue that Mr. Khamenei could be more pragmatic than expected.

在伊朗国内，一些政治分析人士认为，哈梅内伊可能比外界预期的更务实。

Hassan Ahmadian, a political analyst at the University of Tehran, said that Mr. Khamenei’s position of strength among hard-liners opens the possibility for him to seek consensus in a way that weaker candidates could not.

德黑兰大学政治分析师哈桑·艾哈迈迪安表示，哈梅内伊在强硬派中拥有强势地位，这使他有可能以弱势候选人做不到的方式寻求共识。

“He could work with anyone and everyone within Iranian politics, based on the priorities he feels for Iran and for the country at this point,” he said.

“他可以根据他在现阶段为伊朗和国家设定的优先事项，与伊朗政界各方合作。”他说。

周一，在德黑兰，民众聚集起来，表达对穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的支持。

Some Iranians were hopeful that Mr. Khamenei would choose to play a role similar to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia — an authoritarian ruler who expanded social freedoms and rehabilitated the economy.

一些伊朗人希望，哈梅内伊能扮演类似沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的角色——一位扩大社会自由、振兴经济的威权统治者。

Farhad, a logistics manager in Tehran, said many Iranians might welcome a heavy security state coupled with improved foreign relations, and a slow, gradual easing of social restrictions. Like many Iranians inside the country, he asked to be identified by his first name only for fear of retaliation.

德黑兰物流经理法尔哈德说，许多伊朗人可能会接受一个实施严密安全管控的国家，同时期待改善对外关系，并逐步缓慢放宽社会限制。和许多伊朗国内民众一样，因担心遭到报复，他只愿透露名字。

Across the country, government supporters have taken to the airwaves and rallied in the streets to pledge their allegiance to the new leader.

在伊朗全国，政府支持者通过广播发声，并走上街头集会，宣誓效忠新领袖。

Mr. Khamenei’s rise may soon be seen as a predictable outcome the United States and Israel could have avoided, said Mr. Citronowicz, the analyst.

分析师希特罗诺维奇表示，穆杰塔巴上台或许很快会被视为一种美国和以色列本可避免的可预见结果。

“Mojtaba is one example of really not thinking in depth how this war could develop,” he said. “Now, he will try to do his utmost to strengthen Iran’s position, and in that sense, maybe we were better off with the father.”

“穆杰塔巴是一个典型例子，说明这场战争的走向没有经过深思熟虑，”他说。“现在，他会尽全力巩固伊朗的地位。从这个角度看，或许还是他父亲在位对我们更有利。”

With oil prices surging and the conflict in the Middle East intensifying, the economic stakes for China are rising.

随着油价飙升、中东冲突不断升级，中国面临的经济风险也越来越大。

The cost of oil on Monday hit levels not seen in four years, one week after the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, an ally and financial partner to China. Fighting has halted virtually all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for China’s energy and goods.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击一周后，本周一，油价攀升至四年来的最高水平。伊朗是中国的盟友和金融合作伙伴。战事几乎完全阻断了霍尔木兹海峡的航道交通，而这条海峡是中国能源和货物运输的重要通道。

China has a lot to lose in a widening conflict. In Iran, China found a cheap source of oil in recent years. Across the region, it found governments keen for its know-how in renewable energy and technology. China grew reliant, like much of the rest of the world, on the Middle East’s supply of both oil and gas.

若冲突持续扩大，中国可能会承受惨重损失。近年来，中国在伊朗找到了廉价的石油来源。在整个中东地区，中国也发现许多政府渴望获得其在可再生能源和技术方面的经验。与世界上大多数国家一样，中国也越来越依赖中东的石油和天然气供应。

The region’s importance to China became even more pronounced this past year, as the country’s trade rivalry with the United States escalated and it was unable to sell many goods to the U.S. market, once China’s biggest market. The United Arab Emirates became the fastest-growing market for Chinese cars. Demand from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors for Chinese steel doubled. China’s exports to the Middle East grew nearly twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world in 2025.

过去一年里，随着中美贸易竞争加剧，中国难以向其曾经最大的市场——美国市场出售大量商品，中东地区对中国的重要性变得更加突出。阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。沙特及其邻国对中国钢铁的需求增加了一倍。2025年，中国对中东的出口增长速度几乎是对世界其他地区出口增速的两倍。

Chinese investment, too, is growing faster there than anywhere else in the world.

中国在该地区的投资增长速度也超过世界其他任何地方。

“The region is basically considered the biggest growth potential for China,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. From 2019 to 2024, China invested $89 billion directly into the Middle East, Ms. Wang said.

“该地区基本上被视为中国增长潜力最大的地区，”欧亚集团中国区总监王丹表示。从2019年到2024年，中国在中东的直接投资达到890亿美元，王丹说。

阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。

These trade ties are now in the line of fire as the American and Israeli militaries attack Iran, and Iran strikes back at ports, ships, pipelines, desalination plants, data centers and other critical infrastructure across the region. The seaborne transit of not only energy but goods carried on giant container ships through the Strait of Hormuz are imperiled.

如今，随着美国和以色列军队攻击伊朗，伊朗又对整个地区的港口、船只、输油管道、海水淡化厂、数据中心以及其他关键基础设施进行反击，这些贸易联系如今正处在风口浪尖。不仅能源运输，就连通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型集装箱船所运载的各项物资也面临危险。

China also has credit at risk, having extended loans for contracts and projects throughout the region.

由于中国为该地区的合同和项目提供了贷款，它还面临信贷风险。

The portion of China’s global portfolio of loans and grants to the region doubled to 10 percent in 2023, according to AidData, a research institute at William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. State-owned financial institutions extended loans to oil refineries and seaports that finance the production and transport of commodities.

根据弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡的威廉与玛丽学院研究机构AidData的数据，到2023年，中国向该地区提供的贷款和赠款在其全球投资中的占比已翻倍至10%。国有金融机构向炼油厂和海港提供贷款，为大宗商品的生产和运输提供资金。

In Qatar, Chinese banks are helping to fund and build a major expansion of a liquefied natural gas production facility. China’s state-owned oil giant Sinopec holds a stake in the facility’s North Field East expansion project. The facilities were attacked last week.

在卡塔尔，中国的银行正在为一项大型液化天然气生产设施扩建项目帮助提供资金并参与建设。中国国有石油巨头中国石化持有该设施北方气田东扩项目的股份。该设施上周遭到袭击。

Chinese investors have funded the expansion of Israel’s Haifa Port and the Emirates’ Khalifa Port, and the resulting terminals are owned and operated by Chinese companies.

中国投资者还为以色列海法港和阿联酋哈利法港的扩建提供了资金，扩建后的码头由中国公司拥有并运营。

In Iran, dozens of Chinese companies have financed, built and run infrastructure, electric grids and petrochemical plants.

在伊朗，数十家中国公司投资、建设和运营着基础设施、电网和石化工厂。

China is also the largest investor in desalination in the Middle East, where potable water is scarce. Nearly all of the projects have been built by Power Construction Corporation of China, with projects in Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Oman and Iraq.

中国也是中东地区海水淡化领域最大的投资者，该地区饮用水资源匮乏。几乎所有项目都由中国电力建设集团建设，项目遍布沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、阿曼和伊拉克。

霍尔木兹海峡的一个港口，霍尔木兹海峡是运输中国货物的重要水道。

“There are so many countries and so many assets spread across the region,” said Brad Parks, the executive director of AidData. “We could see in the deal flow there was just a lot of enthusiasm about doing more and more work in the Middle East.”

“该地区国家众多，资源也十分丰富，”AidData执行董事布拉德·帕克斯说。“从交易情况来看，人们对在中东开展越来越多项目充满热情。”

Major Chinese technology companies like Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent have set up offices in Dubai, where employees work in a complex that includes Microsoft, Meta and Google. Three Chinese smartphone brands — Transsion, Xiaomi and Honor — are gaining market share in the region, after the South Korean giant Samsung, according to Omdia, a tech research firm.

华为、阿里巴巴和腾讯等中国大型科技公司已在迪拜设立办公室，员工与微软、Meta和谷歌等公司在同一园区办公。根据科技研究公司Omdia的数据，三家中国智能手机品牌——传音、小米和荣耀——在该地区迅速扩大市场份额，仅次于韩国巨头三星。

It’s not only large companies seeking fortunes in the Middle East.

前往中东寻求机会的不只是大型企业。

In 2018, Haiyang Zhang, a Chinese entrepreneur, moved to Dubai, the Emirates’ largest city and a hub for international finance and visitors. She left a job at a Chinese-company this year to start her own business helping Chinese investors expand in Dubai. Some of her partners are in the new energy sector. Ms. Zhang believes Dubai remains a secure place for certain Chinese investors to put their money, she said, but is concerned about the impact of a sustained conflict.

2018年，中国企业家张海洋移居阿联酋最大城市、国际金融和旅游枢纽迪拜。今年，她辞去了在中国公司的工作，创办了自己的公司，帮助中国投资者在迪拜拓展业务。她的一些合作伙伴来自新能源行业。张女士表示，她仍然认为迪拜对部分中国投资者来说是一个安全的投资地点，但她也担心持续冲突带来的影响。

Over the past week, several Chinese companies with growing presences in the Middle East instructed their employees in the region to work remotely. On March 1, the tech giant Baidu said it would pause its robotaxi services in the Emirates. The Chinese food delivery platform Keeta has indicated that its services in the region may be suspended or temporarily limited.

过去一周，一些在中东业务不断扩张的中国公司已指示当地员工远程办公。3月1日，科技巨头百度表示将暂停其在阿联酋的自动驾驶出租车服务。中国外卖平台Keeta也表示，在该地区的服务可能会暂停或暂时受限。

China’s foreign ministry said last week that one Chinese citizen had died and more than 3,000 nationals had been evacuated from Iran. It has not said how many Chinese nationals are in the region.

中国外交部上周表示，一名中国公民在伊朗死亡，超过3000名中国公民已从伊朗撤离。但外交部并未透露目前有多少中国公民在该地区。

Oil from the Middle East is critical to China’s energy security. It imports a little over half of its seaborne crude from the Middle East, and about a quarter of that comes from Iran. Like countries all over the world, China faces higher energy costs as global prices rise.

来自中东的石油对中国的能源安全至关重要。中国进口的海运原油中，超过一半来自中东，其中约四分之一来自伊朗。随着全球油价上涨，中国与世界各国一样面临更高的能源成本。

China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, which is under U.S. sanction, although the imports made up a little over 13 percent of the seaborne crude it took in during 2025, according to Kpler, an industry data firm. China also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan. Still, a loss of Iranian supply would force China to find other sources, which would be much more expensive than the discounted oil it bought from Tehran.

伊朗石油正受到美国制裁，而中国是伊朗石油的主要买家。尽管根据行业数据公司Kpler的数据，2025年中国进口的伊朗石油仅占其海运原油总量的13%多一点。中国还运营三条主要原油管道，其中两条从俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦输送石油。即便如此，一旦失去来自伊朗的供应，中国将不得不寻找其他来源，而这些来源的价格将远高于从德黑兰购买的折扣石油。

随着与伊朗的冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与中东多国外长通话。

Despite China’s deep financial ties in the Middle East, it is facing the same risks as other countries, including the United States, that are heavily invested in and dependent on the region.

尽管中国在中东拥有深厚的金融联系，但它与其他在该地区投入巨大并高度依赖该地区的国家（包括美国）面临着相同的风险。

China has condemned the strikes by Israel and the United States and called for a cessation of the fighting. As the conflict has escalated, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has held calls with counterparts in Iran, Oman, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

中国谴责了以色列和美国的袭击，并呼吁停止战斗。随着冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与伊朗、阿曼、以色列、沙特阿拉伯以及阿联酋的外长级人物通了电话。

But Iran’s threats have caused traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to plunge. And it’s not just energy that’s getting blocked. The Chinese shipping giant Cosco stopped bookings through the strait, and Maersk, the Danish company, suspended certain critical routes in the Middle East.

但伊朗的威胁已导致霍尔木兹海峡的航运量大幅下降。受到阻碍的不仅是能源运输。中国航运巨头中远海运已经停止通过该海峡的船期预订，丹麦航运公司马士基也暂停了中东地区部分关键航线。

Ms. Zhang, the Chinese entrepreneur in Dubai, said she observed American businesses and executives evacuating from the region, and to her that spells opportunity.

在迪拜的中国企业家张女士表示，她注意到美国企业和高管正在从该地区撤离，在她看来，这意味着机会。

“Their motivation to evacuate,” she said, “is far greater than that of the Chinese.”

“他们撤离的动机远远强于中国人，”她说。

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the recently killed supreme leader, as his father’s successor, according to a statement from top clerics published on state media early Monday local time, signaling the continuity of hard-line theocratic rule as Israeli and U.S. airstrikes pound the country.

当地时间周一凌晨，伊朗通过官方媒体发布高级教士声明，宣布任命前不久被杀的最高领袖之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊为其父继任者。美以空袭持续轰炸伊朗之际，此举标志着强硬派神权统治的延续。

Mr. Khamenei himself, though, is something of a mystery even within Iran.

但穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊本人即使在伊朗国内也颇具神秘色彩。

He is a son of the recently killed supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and has been an influential figure in the shadows of power, coordinating military and intelligence operations at his father’s office. He is known to have very close ties to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and was considered their favored candidate.

他是不久前遇袭身亡的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊之子，长期作为权力幕后的重要人物，在父亲办公室协调军事与情报行动。他与权势强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系极为密切，被视为卫队属意的候选人。

Unlike his father, Mr. Khamenei, 56, carries the full religious credentials as an ayatollah at the moment of his ascension. He was known for teaching popular Shiite seminary classes.

与父亲不同，现年56岁的哈梅内伊在接任时已拥有完整的阿亚图拉宗教资质，曾以在什叶派神学院开设广受欢迎的课程而闻名。

But his personality or politics outside of his father’s tight inner circle are not known. He seldom speaks or appears in public. And now he will take the helm not just as Iran’s new religious and political authority, but also as the commander in chief of its armed forces.

但在父亲严密的核心小圈子之外，他的个人性格与政治立场鲜为人知。他极少公开发言或露面。如今，他不仅即将掌管伊朗新的宗教与政治最高权力，还将担任武装部队总司令。

Vali R. Nasr, an expert on Iran and Shiite Islam at Johns Hopkins University, said that Mr. Khamenei would be a surprising choice, but a telling one.

约翰斯·霍普金斯大学伊朗与什叶派问题专家瓦利·纳赛尔表示，穆杰塔巴的继任出人意料，却很能说明问题。

“The choice of Mojtaba is choice of continuity with his father, and also he is more ready than other candidates to quickly consolidate power and assert control over the system,” said Mr. Nasr. He added that Mr. Khamenei had been considered a successor for a long time; but for the past two years, he had seemed to have dropped off the radar.

“选择穆杰塔巴是选择延续他父亲的路线，而且相比其他候选人，他更有能力迅速巩固权力、掌控整个体系，”纳赛尔说。他还说，穆杰塔巴很早便被视为接班人，但过去两年似乎淡出了公众视野。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had indicated to close advisers that he did not want his son to succeed him because he did not want the role to become hereditary, according to three senior Iranian officials familiar with Mr. Khamenei and the selection process. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal issues.

据三位熟悉穆杰塔巴及继任流程的伊朗高级官员透露，已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊曾向亲信顾问表示，不希望儿子接班，以免最高领袖一职变成世袭。这些官员因讨论敏感内部事务要求匿名。

After all, the Islamic revolution in 1979 had toppled a monarchy with the promise to end the hereditary transfer of power and return it to the people.

毕竟，1979年伊斯兰革命正是推翻了君主制，承诺终结权力世袭、将权力归还人民。

But Mr. Khamenei’s ascension suggests that those in Iran’s circles of power — the senior clerics, the Guards and influential politicians, such as the head of the National Security Council, Ali Larijani — had closed ranks at a time of acute crisis and war.

但穆杰塔巴的接任表明，在这场严重危机与战争时刻，伊朗权力核心圈——包括高级教士、革命卫队，以及包括国家安全委员会主席阿里·拉里贾尼在内的实权政治人物——已经团结一致。

Mr. Larijani, a pragmatic veteran politician who has taken center stage in running the country, and Mr. Khamenei are old allies and friends. Both men are also influential within Iran’s armed forces.

在国家运转中站到前台的务实派资深政治人物拉里贾尼与穆杰塔巴是多年盟友与好友，两人在伊朗武装部队内部均拥有深厚影响力。

The Revolutionary Guards were founded as an ideological force charged with defending the Islamic republic and its borders, and to provide a buffer layer of security in case of defections and coups in the army. The Guards have since turned into a political, military and economic powerhouse. They are directing the waves of ballistic missiles and drones against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region, as massive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue.

伊斯兰革命卫队最初作为意识形态武装力量成立，职责是捍卫伊斯兰共和国及其边境，并在军队出现叛逃或政变时提供安全缓冲。如今，卫队已成为集政治、军事、经济于一体的庞大势力。美以持续大规模空袭之际，他们正指挥一波波弹道导弹与无人机攻击以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和美国使馆。

Mr. Khamenei was selected by a group known as the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior Shiite clerics. Even as the assembly was debating its choice on Tuesday, Israel struck a building in Qum, one of Shiite Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly would traditionally meet to vote on a new leader. But the building was empty, according to the Fars News agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, and the clerics were meeting virtually for security.

穆杰塔巴由名为“专家会议”的机构选出，该机构由88名什叶派高级教士组成。就在该机构周二商议人选时，以色列空袭了库姆一座建筑，这里是什叶派主要权力中心之一，也是专家会议传统上投票选举新领袖的场所。但据隶属革命卫队的法尔斯通讯社称，当时建筑内无人，教士们出于安全考虑转为线上开会。

During the deliberations, the majority of the senior clerics in the assembly pushed for Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, arguing that he had the qualifications needed to steer Iran in this moment, according to the three Iranian officials. Some clerics said that after the Ayatollah had been killed by America and Israel, choosing his son would honor his legacy.

三位伊朗官员表示，商议期间，专家会议中多数高级教士支持任命穆杰塔巴，认为他具备在当前时刻领导伊朗所需的资质。部分教士称，在阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遭美以刺杀后，选择他的儿子是对其遗志的致敬。

“Mojtaba is the wisest pick right now because he is intimately familiar with running and coordinating security and military apparatuses,” Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Tehran, said in an interview. “He was in charge of this already.”

“穆杰塔巴是目前最明智的人选，因为他对安全与军事机构的运作和协调极为熟悉，”现居德黑兰的分析人士迈赫迪·拉赫马蒂在采访中表示。“这些工作他本来就在负责。”

周日，伊朗民众在德黑兰哀悼最高领袖逝世。

But Mr. Rahmati acknowledged that the appointment carries the risk of further polarizing a population that is deeply divided, with many Iranians deeply opposed to the Islamic republic’s rule.

但拉赫马蒂也承认，这一任命可能让本就严重分裂的伊朗社会进一步两极分化，许多伊朗民众强烈反对伊斯兰共和国统治。

“A portion of the public will react negatively and forcefully to this decision, and it will have a backlash,” he said.

“部分民众会对这一决定做出强烈负面反应，会引发反弹，”他说。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had the final say on all main state matters. He showed little flexibility on domestic reforms, and offered few concessions in nuclear negotiations with the United States. He ordered the lethal crackdown on nationwide protests in January that were calling for the end to his rule. Security forces killed at least 7,000 people during that crackdown, according to rights groups that say the numbers could rise significantly when verification is completed.

已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊对国家所有重大事务拥有最终决定权。他在国内改革上态度强硬，在与美国的核谈判中极少让步。他曾下令镇压今年1月呼吁终结其统治的全国性抗议活动。人权组织称，安全部队在镇压中杀害了至少7000人，核实工作完成后这一数字还可能大幅上升。

Since the war began, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have killed not just Mr. Khamenei’s father, but also his wife, Zahra Adel; his mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh; and a son; the Iranian government said.

伊朗政府表示，战争爆发以来，美以空袭不仅导致穆杰塔巴的父亲身亡，他的妻子扎赫拉·阿德尔、母亲曼苏雷·霍贾斯泰·巴格赫扎德以及他的一个儿子也被杀害。

Other candidates who were considered to be finalists for the supreme leader role were Alireza Arafi, a cleric and jurist who was part of the three-person transition council of leadership named after Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic revolution’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

此前进入最高领袖最终候选名单的还有阿里礼萨·阿拉菲与赛义德·哈桑·霍梅尼。阿拉菲是教士兼法学家，也是阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遇袭后成立的三人权力过渡委员会成员；霍梅尼则是伊斯兰革命奠基人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼的孙子。

Both Mr. Arafi and Mr. Khomeini are viewed as moderates, with the latter being close to the sidelined reformist political faction in Iran.

阿拉菲与霍梅尼均被视为温和派，后者与伊朗遭边缘化的改革派政治派系关系密切。

Some analysts hold that Mr. Khamenei might yet lean toward reform, despite his father’s style. They argue that he is of a younger, more pragmatic generation of clerics and because of his lineage would face less resistance from the hard-line and conservative factions.

部分分析人士认为，尽管其父风格强硬，穆杰塔巴仍有可能倾向改革。他们认为，他属于更年轻、更务实的一代教士，且凭借家族背景，他面临的强硬派与保守派系阻力更小。

Abdolreza Davari, a politician close to Mr. Khamenei, said in a phone interview from Tehran that if Mr. Khamenei did succeed his father, he might emerge as a figure in the style of the Saudi Arabian leader Mohammed bin Salman, who has brought some liberalization to his society.

与穆杰塔巴关系密切的政界人士阿卜杜勒雷扎·达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示，如果穆杰塔巴继任，其执政风格或将类似沙特阿拉伯领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼——后者已为本国社会带来一定程度的自由化改革。

“If there is anyone who could move toward some sort of de-escalation with the United States, it is him — any other person would face backlash from the ruling class and conservatives,” said Mr. Davari. “He intends to bring structural change.”

“如果说有谁能推动与美国的某种缓和，那就是他——换作其他人，都会遭到统治阶层与保守派的强烈反弹，”达瓦里说。“他有意推动结构性变革。”

How Washington would view him is uncertain. On Tuesday, at a news conference in Washington, President Trump said that many of the people his government had viewed as potential leaders of Iran had been killed since the fighting began. “Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody,” he said.

华盛顿方面将如何看待他仍不明确。周二，特朗普总统在华盛顿新闻发布会上表示，自冲突开始以来，他的政府认为可能成为伊朗领导人的不少人物已被击毙。“很快我们就谁都不认识了，”他说。

Asked about a worst-case scenario in Iran, he said: “I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person. Right, that could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”

当被问及伊朗可能发生的最坏局面时，他表示：“我想最糟糕的情况就是，我们采取这个行动，结果上台的人和前任一样坏。没错，这有可能发生。我们不希望出现这种情况。”

At first glance, the Chinese director Lou Ye’s newest film looks like a departure from form.

乍一看，中国导演娄烨的新作似乎偏离了他一贯的风格。

It does not touch on the taboo subjects, like China’s coronavirus lockdowns or the Tiananmen Square massacre, that earned him the moniker “the king of banned films.” It does not examine how ordinary Chinese respond to a changing society, the animating question of Mr. Lou’s oeuvre. There isn’t even dialogue, only music.

这部电影没有触及那些为他赢得“禁片之王”绰号的禁忌题材——比如中国的新冠封控或六四事件。它也没有探讨普通中国人如何应对不断变化的社会，而这本是娄烨作品中最核心的命题。影片甚至没有对白，只有音乐。

It is a concert film about a Chinese rock band, ReTROS — Mr. Lou’s first foray into nonfiction after decades of feature films.

这是一部关于中国摇滚乐队“重塑雕像的权利”的演唱会电影——也是娄烨数十年来剧情片创作后首次涉足非虚构领域。

For Mr. Lou, these differences are mostly semantic. “The distinction we draw between feature films and documentaries is a mistake,” Mr. Lou, 60, said in an interview at his studio in Beijing, not long after the film, “Re-TROS ‘After the Applause,’” made its premiere in the city last fall.

对娄烨而言，这些差异在很大程度上只是形式上的区别。“我们把剧情片和纪录片截然分开，这本身就是一个错误，”去年秋天在他的电影《重塑雕像的权利“喝彩之后”南京演唱会》在北京首映后不久，现年60岁的娄烨在位于北京的工作室接受采访时说。

“As long as there’s a camera pointed at you, reality has already subtly changed,” he said.

“只要有摄像机对着你，现实就已经发生了微妙的改变，”他说。

A resistance to clear lines or categories runs through Mr. Lou’s work — and his life.

对明晰界限和分类的抗拒一直贯穿着娄烨的作品，也贯穿着他的人生。

His shaky, hand-held camerawork evokes realism, but the stories are often dreamlike or fantastical. The films start with real moments in Chinese history but feature mysterious look-alikes and stories within stories.

他手持摄像机摇晃的镜头营造出一种现实主义感，但故事往往如梦境般，甚至带有奇幻色彩。影片常常以中国历史的真实时刻出发，却充斥着长相相似的神秘人物，以及层层嵌套的故事。

He is best known for his clashes with Chinese censors, who have barred about half of his films from screening in the country. (He is sometimes compared to Jafar Panahi, the Iranian director who has been jailed for his films.) But Mr. Lou has also made movies released widely in Chinese theaters, featuring big budgets and even bigger stars, sometimes while battling censors on another film at the same time.

他最广为人知的是与中国审查机构的冲突，他约有半数的电影被禁止在国内公映。（因此，他有时被比作因电影入狱的伊朗导演贾法尔·帕纳西。）但娄烨也执导过在中国院线广泛上映的电影，这些作品预算庞大，明星云集，有时他甚至是在与审查机构就另一部影片周旋的同时，完成这些商业片的制作。

Some Chinese filmmakers defy censorship early in their careers, then shift solidly into the mainstream; others remain on the fringes. Few have moved so continuously between the two.

有些中国导演在职业生涯早期挑战审查制度，随后完全进入主流；还有一些则始终停留在边缘地带。但很少有人像他这样，持续在两者之间来回穿梭。

“Is that a good thing or a bad thing?” Mr. Lou said, when asked about that feat.

当被问到这一点时，娄烨说：“你说这是好事还是坏事？”

娄烨工作室里的《颐和园》和《风中有朵雨做的云》电影海报。

While his films have been honored at Cannes and Venice, he said he wanted most to reach a Chinese audience, who would be most likely to understand them. He has accepted significant cuts to some films to see them released domestically. (The concert film is awaiting approval for wider release.)

尽管他的电影已在戛纳和威尼斯电影节上获奖，但他表示自己最渴望的仍是触达中国观众，因为他们最有可能理解他的作品。为了能让一些电影在国内上映，他接受了大幅删减。（这部演唱会电影目前仍在等待更广泛上映的许可。）

Mr. Lou’s wife and frequent screenwriter, Ma Yingli, said in an interview that they tried not to think about censorship until submitting a movie for review. “If you do that, you’ll never be able to make a film,” she said. “If problems arise later, you can try to find solutions,” she added, such as cuts or edits.

娄烨的妻子、也是他经常合作的编剧马英力在采访中说，他们在把电影送审之前，尽量不去考虑审查问题。“如果那样做，你就永远拍不出电影，”她说。“如果之后真的出现问题，再想办法解决。”她补充道，比如删减或修改。

But some topics felt so urgent, Mr. Lou said, that he would not have been able to continue making films if he had not addressed them. That was true of “Summer Palace,” his 2006 film about disillusioned lovers after the Tiananmen massacre, because of his experience as a student during the demonstrations. It was also true of “An Unfinished Film,” a metafictional look at filmmaking under lockdown, because he felt the pandemic had redefined the relationship between people, screens and reality.

但娄烨表示，有些题材让他感觉如此紧迫，以至于如果不将其呈现出来，他就无法继续拍电影。2006年的《颐和园》便是如此，这部影片讲述了关于天安门事件后梦想幻灭的恋人们的故事，因为他本人在学生时代亲身经历过那些示威抗议活动。他的新片《一部未完成的电影》亦是如此，这部以元虚构（metafictional，也被称为后设，译注）手法展现疫情封锁期间电影拍摄的影片，源于他深切感受到疫情重新定义了人与人、人与屏幕以及人与现实之间的关系。

“Generally speaking, if you don’t violate an artist’s basic expression, I think restrictions and obstacles are quite normal,” he said. “But if you push past that point, the artist may push back.”

他说：“一般来说，只要不侵犯艺术家最基本的表达，我认为限制和障碍都是很正常的。但如果越过了那条线，艺术家可能就会反抗。”

He described this reaction as reflexive, out of his control. “That’s not about cinema anymore,” he said.

他把这种反应形容为一种本能的反射，不受自己控制。“那已经不是电影本身的问题了，”他说。

Mr. Lou was born in Shanghai, to an actor and an acting teacher. At age 20, in 1985, he enrolled at the Beijing Film Academy to study directing.

娄烨出生于上海，父母分别是演员和表演教师。1985年，20岁的他考入北京电影学院学习导演。

It was a time of heady experimentation, as China’s leaders loosened their grip on the economy and, cautiously, culture. The graduates from the academy in those years later became known as the pioneers of Chinese underground cinema. They made low-budget films documenting the unglamorous side of China’s boom and did not submit them to the state film administration, meaning they could not enter theaters.

那是一个大胆实验的时代，中国领导层开始放松对经济的控制，同时也谨慎地放宽了对文化的管制。那些年从电影学院毕业的学生后来成为中国地下电影的先锋人物。他们拍摄低成本电影，记录中国经济繁荣背后不那么光鲜的一面，并且不向国家电影局送审，这意味着他们的电影无法进入影院。

Mr. Lou’s breakout film was “Suzhou River” in 2000, a noirish tale of a man searching for his lost lover in a seedy, industrial Shanghai. It was Mr. Lou’s first encounter with international acclaim, winning a prize at the Rotterdam film festival, but also his first major run-in with the authorities. Because he had not obtained officials’ permission to submit the film to the festival, they banned him from making movies for two years.

娄烨的成名作是2000年的《苏州河》，这是一部带有黑色电影风格的作品，讲述一个男人在破败的、工业化的上海寻找失踪恋人的故事。这部影片为他赢得了国际声誉，在鹿特丹电影节获奖，但也让他第一次与当局发生重大冲突。由于他未经官方同意就把影片送去参加电影节，结果被禁止拍片两年。

“Summer Palace,” the 2006 Tiananmen movie, earned him another five-year ban on filmmaking. He shot his next film, “Spring Fever,” in secret. A gay romance, it was released in 2009.

2006年以天安门事件为题材的影片《颐和园》让他再次被禁拍片五年。他的下一部作品《春风沉醉的夜晚》是在秘密状态下拍摄完成的。这部讲述同性恋情的影片于2009年上映。

In recent years, Mr. Lou has also made films marketed more at mass audiences, such as “Saturday Fiction,” a World War II spy story starring the Chinese superstar Gong Li. But even those films deploy techniques that may put off casual moviegoers, like jump cuts and subtle social commentary, said Sheldon Lu, a scholar of Chinese cinema at the University of California, Davis.

近年来，娄烨也拍摄了一些面向更大众市场的影片，例如由中国影星巩俐主演的二战间谍故事《兰心大剧院》。但加州大学戴维斯分校研究中国电影的学者鲁晓鹏表示，即便是在这些影片中，他也运用了可能让普通观众不太适应的手法，比如跳切剪辑和含蓄的社会评论。

娄烨执导的电影《苏州河》和《春风沉醉的夜晚》的海报。

Many of Mr. Lou’s classmates at the Beijing Film Academy are now among China’s most successful directors, in part because they have embraced mainstream or even nationalistic filmmaking, such as odes to the Chinese military, Professor Lu said. But Mr. Lou “holds onto his principles, his aesthetics.”

鲁晓鹏教授说，娄烨在北京电影学院的许多同学如今已成为中国最成功的导演，部分原因是他们拥抱了主流甚至民族主义的电影创作，例如歌颂中国军队。但娄烨“坚持自己的原则和美学”。

Indeed, after “Saturday Fiction” was widely promoted in Chinese state media, Mr. Lou again broached a Chinese government taboo: pandemic lockdowns, in “An Unfinished Film.” Released abroad in 2024, it is unavailable in China.

事实上，在《兰心大剧院》获得中国官方媒体广泛宣传之后，娄烨再次触碰了中国政府的禁忌：在《一部未完成的电影》中讨论疫情封控。该片于2024年在国外发行，目前在中国无法看到。

Despite his maverick image, Mr. Lou is a restrained presence. A self-proclaimed introvert, he has worked with the same actors for many of his films, in part, he joked, because he is uncomfortable meeting new people.

尽管有着特立独行的形象，娄烨本人却相当内敛。他自称是个内向的人，在许多电影中反复与同一批演员合作，他开玩笑说，部分原因是他不习惯结交新朋友。

But he sometimes shows flashes of childlike delight — or defiance. While Mr. Lou was making “The Shadow Play,” a film about corruption during China’s economic opening, Ms. Ma shot a behind-the-scenes documentary. In one scene, Mr. Lou grins widely after capturing a shot he likes and mimics the sound of an explosion.

但他偶尔也会流露出孩子气的喜悦——或者说叛逆。在娄烨拍摄讲述中国经济开放时期腐败问题的《风中有朵雨做的云》时，马英力拍摄了一部幕后纪录片。其中有一个镜头，娄烨在拍到一个满意的镜头后咧嘴大笑，还模仿爆炸的声音。

But later in the documentary, when censors demand extensive cuts to “The Shadow Play,” Mr. Lou declares that he would rather it never be released.

但在纪录片后面的一段里，当审查机构要求对《风中有朵雨做的云》进行大幅删减时，娄烨表示自己宁愿这部电影永远不要上映。

A member of his team fires back, “Do the rest of us eat?”

他团队的一名成员反驳道：“那我们其他人还吃不吃饭了？”

After two years of negotiations with officials, the movie was released in China in 2019. At the premiere, Mr. Lou tersely told the audience that he had left in signs of deletions and changes, as proof of the censors’ interference: “These are all things I want the audience to be aware of.”

经过与官员长达两年的协商，这部电影最终于2019年在中国的院线上映。在首映式上，娄烨简短地对观众说，他刻意保留了影片中的删减和修改痕迹，以此作为审查干预的证据：“这些都是我希望观众注意到的。”

Mr. Lou said “The Shadow Play” was probably the film on which he had made the most compromises. Still, he said it was worthwhile to give Chinese moviegoers a record of their collective experience, even if it could be only a “second-rate” version, as Mr. Lou once described it, because of censorship.

娄烨说，《风中有朵雨做的云》大概是他做出妥协最多的一部电影。但他仍然认为，让中国观众看到一份关于他们共同经历的记录是值得的，即使因为审查，这只能是一部——正如他曾经描述的那样——“二流版本”的作品。

His willingness to negotiate may also speak to his desire for audiences, both at home and overseas, to talk about something other than censorship.

他愿意与审查机构周旋，或许也说明了他希望国内外观众能关注审查之外的话题。

娄烨是少数几位似乎持续在边缘与主流之间游走的中国电影人之一。

“Everything gets simplified into political or nonpolitical,” he said. “It completely destroys the dialogue between the film and the public,” the right of audiences to interpret a film as they like.

“一切都被简化为政治或非政治，”他说。“这完全破坏了电影与公众之间的对话”，也剥夺了观众按照自己的喜好解读电影的权利。

“It strips away the film’s value as entertainment,” he said, “or as a cinematic language.”

“它剥离了电影作为娱乐的价值，”他说，“或者作为一种电影语言的价值。”

Mr. Lou’s new concert documentary is, essentially, all cinematic language. He said he had sought to let the band’s music, of which he is a longtime fan, speak for itself.

娄烨的新演唱会纪录片本质上几乎完全是电影语言的呈现。他说，自己希望让这支乐队的音乐——他多年来一直很喜欢——自己说话。

After the premiere in Beijing, Mr. Lou briefly took the stage. He urged the audience to be open to the diversity of movies that a director could make.

在北京首映式结束后，娄烨短暂登台发言。他呼吁观众对导演可以创作的多样化电影类型保持开放态度。

“There are many different types of movies,” he said. “So I hope people will pay attention.”

“电影有很多不同类型，”他说。“所以我希望大家能关注它们。”

The gigantic factory stretches for more than a mile along the river bank, belching steam laced with the aroma of China’s “national drink” — a gullet-searing grain spirit that, according to local lore, helped propel Mao Zedong to power, smoothed Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to Beijing and turned a remote mountain valley into “the liquor capital of China.”

这座巨型酒厂沿河岸绵延超过1.6公里，蒸汽升腾间弥漫着中国“国酒”的浓烈香气——据当地传说，这种灼烧喉咙的粮食烈酒曾助力毛泽东夺取政权，为1972年尼克松访华铺平道路，也让偏远山谷蜕变为“中国酒都”。

But, drenched for decades in the fumes and profits of its booze business, the town of Maotai in China’s southern Guizhou province is now nursing a bad hangover.

然而，在酒香与暴利中浸淫数十年后，中国南部贵州省的茅台镇正遭受严重的宿醉。

A nationwide ban on drinking alcohol at official banquets, an economic slowdown that has cut expense account boozing and the more health-conscious habits of a young generation with little appetite for 100-plus-proof alcohol have dented the fortunes of the state-controlled Kweichow Moutai, the town’s biggest employer with more than 30,000 workers, and hundreds of smaller, private distilleries scattered throughout the mountains.

全国范围内的公务宴请禁酒令、经济放缓削减了公款饮酒开支，以及年轻一代更注重健康、对超过100度的烈酒兴趣寥寥，都重创了国有企业贵州茅台的业绩，这家拥有3万余名员工的企业是当地最大的雇主，而散布在群山间的数百家小型民营酒厂同样受到波及。

All produce much the same product: a highly potent colorless drink made from sorghum and known as “baijiu.” The most famous brand is Moutai, a name derived from an archaic English transcription of Maotai, the Chinese name for the riverside town where it is made.

所有酒厂生产的几乎是同一种产品：以高粱酿造的烈性无色酒，俗称“白酒”。其中最知名的品牌就是茅台，其英文名“Moutai”源自对其产地、河畔小镇茅台镇的老式英文音译。

Once a sleepy, one-factory backwater, Maotai has had an expensive makeover aimed at attracting Chinese tourists and buyers for local booze. Its central district is filled with ersatz traditional wooden buildings stuffed with baijiu stores and baijiu-themed restaurants.

茅台镇曾是一座寂寂无闻、仅有一家工厂的偏远小镇，后来斥巨资改造，试图吸引中国游客与本地酒品买家。中心区遍布仿传统木质建筑，内里挤满白酒专卖店与白酒主题餐厅。

2月，茅台当地一家酒厂举办的宴会上，宾客们举着白酒敬酒。茅台镇与贵州茅台酒厂，摄于2月。

Behind the state-controlled distillery, however, most of the hundreds of shops selling different brands of baijiu along a long shopping street are empty. Anxious sales staff, desperate for business, shout at passers-by, offering free tastings and discounts on purchases of baijiu ladled from large earthenware vats.

但在国营的酒厂背后，一条长长的商业街上，数百家售卖各类白酒的店铺大多空置。焦虑的销售人员为招揽生意，对着路人高声吆喝，提供免费品鉴和折扣优惠，白酒从大型陶缸中舀出售卖。

Yuan Yuan, who sells baijiu for the Qianzui Winery, a small producer, said sales picked up slightly before Chinese New Year on Feb. 17 but were down by at least a third compared with last year. A long funk by Chinese consumers worried by the falling value of their homes has curbed their spending on nonessential items, including alcohol.

在小型酒厂黔醉酒庄（音）从事白酒销售的袁媛（音）说，2月17日春节前销量略有回升，但较去年至少下滑三分之一。中国消费者因房价下跌忧心忡忡，抑制了包括酒类在内的非必需品消费。

Ms. Yuan used to handle sales from an office at her distillery, where she received a reliably steady flow of orders. Today, she drums up business from a street stall next to a hill decorated with a giant bottle of Moutai. Her distillery’s baijiu bottles — white ceramic with a red label — look almost identical to those of Kweichow Moutai but sell for just a few dollars each.

袁媛过去在酒厂办公室处理销售业务，订单稳定、源源不断。如今，她在一座装饰着巨型茅台瓶雕塑的小山脚下摆摊揽客。她所在酒厂的酒瓶使用白瓷瓶配红标签，外观与贵州茅台几乎无异，售价却仅有几十元一瓶。

“The economic climate has hurt us badly,” Ms. Yuan said.

“经济环境对我们打击太大了，”袁媛说。

袁媛在公园外推广黔醉酒业的白酒，小山上矗立着巨型瓶装的贵州茅台。茅台镇的一家白酒专卖店。

An acquired taste, the baijiu from Maotai, prized for its “sauce aroma,” tastes like grain alcohol blended with soy sauce and leaves its malodorous smell on the drinker’s breath for hours or even days.

茅台镇产的白酒是一种需要培养接受的口味，其著名的“酱香”口感像粮食酒混合酱油，饮用后冲鼻的酒气会在饮酒者的气息中留存几小时甚至几天。

“Under no, repeat no, circumstance should the president actually drink from his glass in response to banquet toasts” of baijiu, President Nixon was advised before his arrival in Beijing by his deputy national security adviser, Alexander Haig. (He ignored the warning.)

尼克松总统访华前，副国家安全顾问亚历山大·黑格曾警告他：“在宴会上，无论任何情况，重申一遍，任何情况，总统被敬酒时，都不能以饮酒作为回应，”他指的是白酒。（尼克松并未听从这一警告。）

Unlike many other Chinese products, from electric cars to stuffed toys, baijiu has struggled to break into foreign markers and relies almost entirely on domestic sales. For a time, these were so strong that Kweichow Moutai’s share price skyrocketed to make it China’s most valuable company, ahead of tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent.

与电动汽车、毛绒玩具等诸多中国产品不同，白酒始终难以打入海外市场，几乎完全依赖国内销售。曾几何时，国内需求极为旺盛，贵州茅台股价飙升，超越阿里巴巴、腾讯等科技巨头，成为中国市值最高的企业。

Over the past five years the company has lost more than a third of its market value. It also lost three managing directors to Communist Party corruption investigations and two more to management shake-ups forced by disappointing results.

过去五年，该公司市值蒸发超三分之一，还先后有三位总经理因中共反腐调查落马，另有两位因业绩不佳引发的管理层动荡离职。

Flying Fairy, the company’s flagship product, sold for more than $500 a bottle before China’s biggest property developer collapsed in late 2021 and set off a long slump in real estate prices. Known as “liquid gold,” it served for years as a stable alternative currency widely used to bribe officials.

贵州茅台的旗舰产品飞天茅台，在2021年底中国最大房企崩盘、引发房价长期下跌前，单瓶售价超3500元。这款被称为“液体黄金”的酒多年来作为稳定的替代货币，被广泛用于贿赂官员。

A bottle now sells for around $200.

如今，其单瓶售价仅约1400元。

茅台酒博物馆展出外国领导人访华饮用白酒的历史照片。

That is still expensive — far more than what it costs to produce — and a surge in demand for alcohol ahead of Chinese New Year festivities braked an accelerating decline of Moutai’s price.

这一价格仍然高昂，远高于生产成本，且春节前酒类需求激增，暂时遏制了茅台价格的加速下跌。

Flying Fairy’s loss of altitude, however, has still shattered the drink’s allure as a safe store of wealth for corrupt officials wary of holding cash and also for investors who had viewed buying up bottles of Moutai as a surefire bet.

但飞天茅台价格的大幅回落仍然彻底击碎了它作为避险财富储备的魅力——无论是对于不愿持有现金的腐败官员，还是将囤购茅台视为稳赚不赔投资的投资者。

Unable to unload unsold bottles on foreign markets, which last year gave China an immense trade surplus of $1.19 trillion but have little demand for high-octane sorghum spirits, China’s baijiu producers last year cut production nationwide by 12 percent, according to official statistics.

官方数据显示，由于无法在海外市场出售滞销库存（去年中国贸易顺差达1.19万亿美元，但海外对高度数高粱烈酒需求极低），中国白酒生产商去年全国产量削减12%。

China first put a damper on the “baijiu” business in 2012, when President Xi Jinping, newly installed as the country’s top leader, restricted drinking at military functions as part of a campaign to curb graft and drink-fueled indiscipline. Drinking baijiu fell further out of favor in 2016 after several officials in the central province of Anhui died from alcohol poisoning following boozy banquets.

中国对白酒行业的管控始于2012年，习近平主席就任国家最高领导人后，为遏制腐败与酒后失范行为，率先限制军队饮酒。2016年，中部省份安徽多名官员在酒宴后因过量酒精中毒身亡，白酒消费进一步失宠。

Starting last May, all alcohol, including Moutai, previously an indispensable feature of official and business banquets across China, has been banned at all government events.

从去年5月起，所有酒类——包括曾在全国公务与商务宴中不可或缺的茅台——被全面禁止出现在政府活动中。

“One drink can make you lose your position,” state media warned.

“一顿酒，就能丢‘乌纱帽’，”官媒如此警示。

A large red slogan atop the entrance to Kweichow Moutai’s huge distillery sends a somewhat different message: “Love our Moutai. Win glory for the country.” The company, which is still highly profitable but unaccustomed to communicating with the world outside its fortresslike premises, did not respond to interview requests.

而在贵州茅台巨大的酒厂入口上方，巨幅红色标语传递着截然不同的信息：“爱我茅台，为国争光。”这家依然盈利丰厚却不习惯与外界沟通的企业对采访请求未予回应。

贵州茅台酒厂正门。

Hardest hit by the downturn, however, are the small, privately owned distilleries, whose bottles of grain spirit never fetched the astronomical prices commanded by the state-controlled giant.

受行业低迷冲击最严重的是小型民营酒厂。它们生产的白酒从未达到那家国企巨头般的天价。

Li Ling, 36, a manager for another small baijiu producer, said sales were down by nearly 50 percent compared with last year. But he still declared himself an optimist, saying he had been steeled against setbacks by growing up in a poor farming family. He and his three siblings all escaped farm labor by finding jobs outside the family village.

36岁的李凌（音）是另一家小型白酒厂的经理，他表示销量较去年下滑近50%。但他仍自称乐观，称出身贫困农家的成长经历让他能直面挫折。他与三个兄弟姐妹都通过离开家乡外出务工摆脱了农活。

Whatever China’s current economic problems, Mr. Li said, there is no going back to past hardship. That people live much better now, he added, “is as obvious as a bug on a bald man’s head.”

李凌说，无论中国当前面临什么样的经济问题，都不可能回到过去的艰苦岁月。他还说，如今人们的生活有了明显的改善，“就像秃顶上的虱子——明摆着”。

Still, dozens of shops have shut down — or been shut down by government inspectors as part of a drive against counterfeit products and fraudulent sales techniques. An official notice on one shuttered store warned that it was illegal to claim to be a “special supplier of alcohol to the Communist Party or the military.”

即便如此，仍有数十家店铺关门——或是因政府打击假冒伪劣与虚假销售手段被查封。一家关闭店铺的官方通知显示，宣称自家的酒属于“党或军队特供”是违法行为。

The tight links between state business and baijiu, however, remain one of Maotai town’s main selling points.

但国企与白酒之间的紧密联系仍是茅台镇的核心卖点之一。

2月，茅台镇一家关门的白酒店。

Chinese Culture Liquor City, a sprawling hillside museum housed in a cluster of fake traditional pavilions, promotes baijiu by leaning heavily into the theme that drinking grain spirit, particularly Moutai, expresses national pride.

中国酒文化城是一座依山而建的庞大博物馆，由一片仿传统亭台楼阁构成，为了推广白酒，它极力强调，饮用粮食酒是民族自豪感的体现，尤其是茅台。

The museum features an A.I.-generated movie showing Americans turning their noses up at the Chinese drink at a 1915 trade fair in San Francisco, provoking fury from a representative from China, who smashes an earthenware container of baijiu onto the ground. The Americans, impressed by his fiery patriotic spirit, decide to take a taste and declare the Chinese alcohol excellent.

馆内一部人工智能生成的影片还原了1915年旧金山世博会的场景：美国人对这款中国白酒嗤之以鼻，激怒了中国代表，他将一坛白酒砸在地上。美国人被他炽热的爱国精神打动，决定品尝一下，最终称赞这款中国白酒品质卓越。

About 20 years later, according to local legend, Maotai helped revive Mao’s battered troops during the Long March. Passing through the town in 1935, exhausted Red Army soldiers are said to have treated their wounds and lifted their spirits with baijiu.

据当地传说，在此约20年后，茅台在长征中助力毛泽东麾下疲惫的红军重整旗鼓。1935年途经茅台镇时，筋疲力尽的红军战士用白酒疗伤、提振士气。

These days, eager to win young customers, Kweichow Moutai has developed baijiu-scented ice creams and a Moutai-flavored latte.

如今，为争取年轻消费者，贵州茅台还推出了白酒味冰淇淋与茅台风味拿铁。

Yuan Qingqing, a manager at Jinjiao, a private distillery employing more than 2,000 workers, acknowledged that the “market is shrinking.” But he added: “China will never abandon baijiu. We have over 5,000 years of history, and baijiu has a very long history, too.”

拥有2000余名员工的民营酒厂金窖酒业（音）经理袁庆庆（音）承认“市场在萎缩”，但他还说：“中国永远不会抛弃白酒。我们有5000多年的历史，白酒也有悠久的历史。”

在茅台“古城”入口处，一座巨型白酒瓶的旋转模型化身为儿童“旋转木马”，这座古城是当地传统民居的复刻再现。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last Monday that the United States “didn’t start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it.”

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯上周一表示，美国“不是这场战争的发动者，但在特朗普总统的领导下，我们会是战争的终结者”。

After he invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia put it this way: “We didn’t start the so-called war in Ukraine. Rather, we are trying to finish it.”

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京在2022年入侵乌克兰后也曾这样表态：“所谓乌克兰战争不是我们发动的。我们倒是在努力结束它。”

Mr. Putin’s war was a disastrous ground invasion of a fledgling democracy. Mr. Trump’s war on Iran is a sophisticated bombing campaign against an aggressive theocracy that was killing its own people in the streets. But some similarities are uncanny, starting with the White House and the Kremlin both trying to avoid calling their actions acts of war.

普京的战争对一个新生的民主国家发起了灾难性的地面入侵。而特朗普对伊朗的战争，则是一场针对一个在街头杀害本国人民、具有侵略性的神权政体所进行的精密轰炸行动。然而，其中的一些相似之处令人感到不安，首先便是白宫和克里姆林宫都在试图避免将自己的行为称为战争行为。

Asked last week if “this is war,” Speaker Mike Johnson responded: “I think it’s an operation.”

上周被问及“这是否是战争”时，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊回答道：“我认为这是一次行动。”

“This is a special military operation,” Mr. Johnson’s Russian counterpart, Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma speaker, said two months into his country’s invasion, sticking to the Kremlin’s official terminology. “If Russia had started a full-scale war, it would have been over long ago.”

“这是一次特别军事行动，”约翰逊在俄罗斯的对等官员、国家杜马主席维亚切斯拉夫·沃洛金在入侵开始两个月时如是说，他坚持使用克里姆林宫的官方术语。“如果俄罗斯发动的是全面战争，那它早就结束了。”

Shifting objectives, an exaggerated threat, an ambiguous mission: The many Russian echoes in the White House’s messaging on Iran underscore the risks of a vaguely defined, open-ended war in which the attacking party pins its hopes on regime change.

不断变动的目标、夸大的威胁、模糊的使命：白宫在伊朗问题上的表态多次回响着俄罗斯的辞令，这突显了一场定义模糊、不设期限且攻击方寄希望于“政权更迭”的战争所带来的风险。

“We haven’t even yet started anything in earnest,” Mr. Putin said in July 2022, trying to project defiance after months of fighting.

“我们甚至还没有真正动手，”普京在2022年7月说道，在数月的战斗，他试图表现一种轻蔑的态度。

“We haven’t even started hitting them hard,” Mr. Trump told CNN last Monday.

“我们甚至还没开始发力打击他们，”特朗普上周一告诉CNN。

I was in Moscow when Mr. Putin gave an early morning address to his nation on Feb. 24, 2022, announcing his “special military operation,” a term now so ingrained that its Russian initials, “S.V.O.,” are shorthand for the war against Ukraine.

2022年2月24日凌晨，当普京向全国发表讲话宣布“特别军事行动”时，我正在莫斯科。这个词现在已经如此深入人心，以至于其俄文首字母缩写“SVO”已成为对乌战争的代名词。

The speech portrayed decades of grievance with Ukraine and the West as leaving Russia “no other choice” but to attack. One of its most chilling moments was Mr. Putin’s plea to Ukrainian soldiers to “immediately lay down arms and go home,” and his warning that if they did not, “responsibility for the possible bloodshed will lie fully and wholly with the ruling Ukrainian regime.”

在那场讲话中，他称数十年来与乌克兰和西方的恩怨让俄罗斯“别无选择”，只能发动进攻。其中最令人不寒而栗的时刻之一是普京要求乌克兰士兵“立即放下武器回家”，并警告说如果他们不这样做，“可能发生的流血的责任，将完全由乌克兰政权承担”。

So it was startling when Mr. Trump struck similar notes, albeit in a “USA” baseball cap, in his overnight speech declaring “major combat operations” in Iran. Overstating the threat of Iran’s missiles, Mr. Trump spoke of decades of Iranian “bloodshed and mass murder,” and asserted that “we can’t take it anymore.” He said Iranian soldiers needed to “lay down your weapons” or “face certain death.”

因此，当特朗普在宣布对伊朗进行“重大作战行动”的深夜演讲中也表现出类似的态度时，令人感到震惊，尽管他当时戴着一顶写着“USA”的棒球帽。特朗普夸大了伊朗导弹的威胁，谈到了伊朗数十年的“流血和大规模屠杀”，并断言“我们不能再忍了”。他说伊朗士兵需要“放下武器”，否则“必死无疑”。

周五礼拜结束后，政府支持者在德黑兰的大莫萨拉清真寺游行。白宫本周在伊朗问题上传达的信息凸显了一场定义模糊、不设期限，且攻击方将希望寄托于“政权更迭”的战争所带来的风险。

I did another double take when Mr. Trump the next day repeated his call for Iranian soldiers to disarm, and urged Iranians to “seize this moment” and topple their government. Mr. Putin, too, tried again on the second day of his war to get Ukrainian soldiers to stop resisting, and to “take power into your own hands.”

次日特朗普再次要求伊朗士兵解除武装，并敦促伊朗人“抓住这一时刻”推翻政府时，我也再次以为自己眼花了。普京同样在战争的第二天再次尝试让乌克兰士兵停止抵抗，并要求他们“把权力掌握在自己手中”。

Western officials and Russian elites expected the war to be over quickly. Russian officers were told to pack their dress uniforms in anticipation of a quick military parade in Kyiv. But even as Russia was falsely claiming to have established “total air superiority” over Ukraine, its overextended supply lines in the military’s disastrous sprint for Kyiv became easy targets for Ukrainian artillery.

西方官员和俄罗斯精英曾预计战争会很快结束。俄罗斯军官甚至被告知带上礼服，准备在基辅举行快速的阅兵式。但即便在俄罗斯虚假地声称对乌克兰建立“绝对制空权”时，其军队在灾难性冲向基辅的过程中因补给线拉得过长，成为了乌克兰炮火的活靶子。

Days turned into weeks, which turned into months, which turned into years. The Ukrainians used ever-more-sophisticated Western weaponry for deadly strikes well behind the front lines, using coordinates provided by the United States.

天变成了周，周变成了月，月变成了年。乌克兰人使用日益先进的西方武器，利用美国提供的坐标，对前线后方进行了致命打击。

Along the way, Mr. Putin’s goals narrowed: from regime change — he called it the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine — to a focus on capturing all of the eastern Donbas region and keeping Ukraine out of NATO.

在此过程中，普京的目标不断缩小：从政权更迭（他称之为乌克兰的“去纳粹化”和“去军事化”）转向专注于占领整个东部顿巴斯地区并阻止乌克兰加入北约。

Now the toll of Mr. Putin’s war is approaching 500,000 lives. Ukraine’s military did not surrender, and President Volodymyr Zelensky is still in charge in Kyiv, leading what the Kremlin casts as a cabal of neo-Nazis.

如今，普京战争的死亡人数已接近50万。乌克兰军队没有投降，总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基依然在基辅掌权，领导着被克里姆林宫描绘为“新纳粹团伙”的国家。

Mr. Trump is only a week into his war, but there is no evidence that Iranian officials or soldiers are starting to surrender — maintaining the hold of a regime that Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of Washington’s loudest Iran hawks, refers to as “religious Nazis.”

特朗普的战争才开始一周，但目前还没有证据表明有伊朗官员或士兵开始投降——这个政权依然稳固。南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员、华盛顿最强硬的鹰派人物之一林赛·格雷厄姆称该政权为“宗教纳粹”。

As the Trump administration has floated shifting timelines for the Iran war, both pro- and anti-Kremlin bloggers from Russia started referring to Mr. Trump’s plan as “Tehran in three days.” It was a reference to “Kyiv in three days,” the ironic shorthand used to describe the Kremlin’s hubris in believing that Ukraine would quickly crumble.

随着特朗普政府不断提出变动的伊朗战争时间表，支持和反对克里姆林宫的俄罗斯博主都开始将特朗普的计划称为“三天攻下德黑兰”。这是在讽刺“三天攻下基辅”——一个用来形容克里姆林宫自大、认为乌克兰会迅速崩溃的讽刺性简称。

Mr. Putin had appeared to think he could repeat his lightning grab of Crimea in 2014, when he overruled his own advisers. Mr. Trump was riding high this year after he ordered his military to seize President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.

普京似乎曾认为他可以重复2014年闪电夺取克里米亚的行动，当时他否决了顾问们的意见。而特朗普在今年下令军队抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，正处于志得意满的状态。

Of course, Mr. Trump could still end the Iran war soon and claim success. On Saturday, he said Iran was “being beat to HELL,” and that he was considering “complete destruction and certain death” for more areas of the country.

当然，特朗普仍可能很快结束伊朗战争并宣布胜利。周六，他说伊朗正“被打得落花流水”，并表示他正考虑对该国更多地区实施“彻底毁灭和必死无疑”的打击。

But Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister at the time of Russia’s invasion, said that given the expansive U.S. goals, the Trump administration may be suffering from the same overconfidence that doomed Russia’s initial war plan.

但俄罗斯开始入侵时的乌克兰外长德米特罗·库列巴表示，考虑到美国宏大的目标，特朗普政府可能同样存在导致俄罗斯最初战争计划失败的那种“过度自信”。

“American commentators are again talking about a ‘short war,’” Mr. Kuleba posted on social media on Friday. “They said the same about Russia’s war against Ukraine. It will be short only if Washington quietly scales down its goals, gives up on regime change in Iran, and sells a much smaller outcome as victory.”

“美国评论人士又在谈论‘速战速决’了，”库列巴周五在社交媒体上发帖称。“他们在俄罗斯对乌战争中也说过同样的话。只有当华盛顿悄悄降低目标、放弃伊朗政权更迭，并将一个小得多的结果包装成胜利时，才能速战速决。”

“Breaking a large country,” he added, “is hard even for the United States.”

他补充道：“摧毁一个大国，即使对美国来说也很难。”

尽管弗拉基米尔·V·普京总统曾预想会取得速胜，但现实却是一场旷日持久且代价高昂的战争。

One striking difference is the poor performance of the Russian military and the sophistication of the U.S. and Israeli air campaign. But analysts say that the value of military firepower is limited when it is not clear what it is supposed to achieve.

一个显著的区别是俄罗斯军队的拙劣表现与美以空袭行动的精密程度。但分析人士表示，当不清楚行动究竟要实现什么目标时，军事火力的价值是有限的。

And the United States’ objectives keep shifting. Mr. Trump on Friday demanded “unconditional surrender” by Iran, while members of his cabinet have presented various, more limited goals, like destroying Iran’s nuclear program and its missile arsenal.

此外，美国的目标一直在变。特朗普周五要求伊朗“无条件投降”，而他的内阁成员则提出了各种更有限的目标，如摧毁伊朗的核计划及其导弹库。

Michael Kofman, a military analyst focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the war reflects “enduring historical lessons.” They include “the need for an alignment between military means and political aims, adjusting plans once initial assumptions are disproven, the need to think through second- and third-order effects.”

卡内基国际和平基金会关注俄乌战争的军事分析师迈克尔·科夫曼表示，这场战争反映了“久远的历史教训”，包括“军事手段与政治目标必须保持一致、在初始假设被证明错误后及时调整计划，以及需要深入思考二阶和三阶效应”。

Maria Lipman, a visiting professor of international studies at Northwestern University who focuses on Russia, said the echoes she saw in Mr. Trump’s war began with “the very improbability of what is happening.”

西北大学研究俄罗斯问题的访问教授玛丽亚·利普曼表示，她在特朗普战争中看到的一些熟悉的元素，首先就是“对正在发生的事感到难以相信”。

Russians largely tuned out the possibility that their president could start an all-out invasion of their neighbor, even as he massed troops. After the initial shock, many came to accept Mr. Putin’s claim that Western aggression against Russia left him no choice but to start his “special military operation.” Hundreds of thousands signed up to join the war, attracted by lucrative signing bonuses.

俄罗斯人大多曾不相信他们的总统会对邻国发动全面入侵，即使他当时正在集结军队。在最初的震惊之后，许多人开始接受普京的说法，即西方对俄罗斯的侵略让他别无选择，只能发动“特别军事行动”。数十万人因丰厚的签约费而报名参战。

Hundreds of thousands more fled abroad, including to Dubai, which has been attacked by Iranian drones similar to the ones Russia has used for years against Ukraine.

也有数十万人逃往国外，包括逃往最近遭到伊朗袭击的迪拜，伊朗使用的无人机，与俄罗斯这几年对付乌克兰的无人机相似。

“By starting a war with Iran, Trump stepped into the unknown,” Ms. Lipman said. “I think that there is more instability in store for the United States and the American people than they realize at this time.”

“通过发动对伊朗的战争，特朗普踏入了未知领域，”利普曼说。“我认为，美国和美国人民将面临比他们目前意识到的更多的动荡。”

A newly released video adds to the evidence that an American missile likely hit an Iranian elementary school where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed.

一段新发布的视频提供了进一步证据，表明一枚美国导弹很可能击中了一所伊朗小学。据报道，该校有175人丧生，其中许多是儿童。

The video, uploaded on Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The New York Times, shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking a naval base beside the school in the town of Minab on Feb. 28. The U.S. military is the only force involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles.

这段视频由伊朗半官方的迈赫尔通讯社在周日上传发布，《纽约时报》对其进行了核实。视频显示，在2月28日，一枚“战斧”巡航导弹击中了米纳卜市一所小学旁边的海军基地。在这场冲突中，美军是参与的军队中唯一使用“战斧”导弹的部队。

A body of evidence assembled by The Times — including satellite imagery, social media posts and other verified videos — indicates that the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on the naval base. The base is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

《纽约时报》收集的证据（包括卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和其他经过核实的视频）表明，沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学的校舍在一次精确打击中遭到严重破坏，而这次打击与对海军基地的攻击是在同一时间。该基地由伊斯兰革命卫队运营。

Asked by a reporter from The Times on Saturday if the United States had bombed the school, President Trump said: “No. In my opinion and based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” He said, “They’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions.”Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was standing beside Mr. Trump, said the Pentagon was investigating, “but the only side that targets civilians is Iran.”

上周六，当《纽约时报》记者问特朗普总统美国是否轰炸了这所学校时，他说：“没有。根据我的看法以及我看到的情况，这是伊朗干的。”他说，“他们的弹药非常不精确，你是知道的。”站在特朗普旁边的国防部长皮特·海格塞斯说，五角大楼正在进行调查，“但唯一会以平民为目标的只有伊朗。”

The video of the strike, which was first reported by the research collective Bellingcat, was independently verified by The Times. We compared features visible in the footage to new satellite imagery captured days after the strikes in Minab.

这段打击视频最早由调查机构Bellingcat报道，《纽约时报》随后进行了独立核实。我们将视频中的可见特征与米纳卜在袭击发生几天后拍摄的最新卫星图像进行了对比。

The video was filmed from a construction site opposite the base and shows a worn, dirt path across a grassy area and piles of debris also evident in recent satellite imagery, bolstering its credibility. The video also comports with other verified videos taken in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.

该视频是在基地对面的一个建筑工地拍摄的，显示了一条穿过草地的土路以及一堆堆瓦砾，这些特征在最近的卫星图像中也能看到，从而增强了视频的可信度。这段视频还与其他在袭击刚发生后拍摄并经核实的视频相吻合。

A Times analysis of the video shows the missile striking a building described as a medical clinic in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base. Plumes of smoke and debris shoot out of the building after it is hit as the distant screams of onlookers are heard.

时报对视频的分析显示，导弹击中了伊斯兰革命卫队基地内一栋被描述为医疗诊所的建筑。导弹命中后，建筑内喷出浓烟，碎片飞溅，远处传来旁观者的尖叫声。

As the camera pans to the right, large plumes of dust and smoke are already billowing from the area around the elementary school, suggesting that it had been struck shortly before the strike on the naval base. This is supported by a timeline of the strikes assembled by The Times that shows the school was hit around the time as the base.

当镜头向右移动时，可以看到小学所在区域已经腾起巨大的尘土和烟雾，这表明在海军基地被击中之前不久，小学就已经遭到打击。《纽约时报》整理的时间线也支持这一点，显示学校与基地几乎同时遭到袭击。

Several other buildings inside the naval base were also hit by precision strikes in the attack, an analysis of satellite imagery showed. Determining precisely what happened has been impeded by the lack of visible weapons fragments and the inability of outside reporters to reach the scene.

对卫星图像的分析显示，海军基地内的其他几座建筑也在袭击中被精确击中。由于现场没有明显的武器残骸，而且外部记者无法进入现场，因而对于究竟发生了什么难以做出准确判断。

The Times has identified the weapon seen in the new video as a Tomahawk cruise missile, a weapon that neither the Israeli military nor the Iranian military has. Dozens of Tomahawks have been launched by U.S. Navy warships into Iran since Feb. 28, when the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began.

《纽约时报》确定新视频中的武器是“战斧”巡航导弹，而以色列军队和伊朗军队都没有这种武器。自2月28日美以对伊朗发动袭击以来，美国海军军舰已向伊朗发射了数十枚“战斧”导弹。

U.S. Central Command said a video it released of several Tomahawks being launched from Navy ships was filmed on Feb. 28, the day the Iranian base and school were hit.

美国中央司令部表示，它发布的一段从海军舰艇上发射数枚“战斧”导弹的视频也是在2月28日拍摄的，正是伊朗基地和学校遭袭的那一天。

The Defense Department describes Tomahawks as “long-range, highly accurate” guided missiles that can fly about 1,000 miles. They are programmed with a specific flight plan before launch, and the missiles steer themselves to their targets.Each Tomahawk is about 20 feet long and has a wingspan of eight and a half feet, according to the Navy. The most commonly used Tomahawks have warheads that contain the explosive power of about 300 pounds of TNT.

美国国防部将“战斧”导弹描述为“远程、高精度”的制导导弹，可以飞行约1600公里。它们在发射前被设定了特定的飞行计划，然后导弹自行导向目标。根据海军的说法，每枚“战斧”导弹长约6米，翼展约2.6米。最常使用的型号配备的弹头爆炸威力相当于约135公斤TNT。

Trevor Ball, a former U.S. Army explosive ordnance disposal technician, also identified the missile in the video as a Tomahawk, as did another weapons expert, Chris Cobb-Smith, director of Chiron Resources, a security and logistics agency.

前美国陆军爆炸物处理技术人员特雷弗·鲍尔以及另一名武器专家、安全和物流机构Chiron Resources的负责人克里斯·科布-史密斯也都确认视频中的导弹是“战斧”导弹。

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. forces were carrying out strikes in southern Iran at the time the naval base and school were hit. A map he presented showed that an area including Minab, which is near the Strait of Hormuz, had been targeted by strikes in the first 100 hours of the operation, although it did not explicitly identify the town.

参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将在上周三的新闻发布会上表示，海军基地和学校遭到袭击时，美军正在伊朗南部执行打击任务。他展示的地图显示，包括靠近霍尔木兹海峡的米纳卜在内的区域在行动最初100小时内被列为打击目标，不过地图上并未明确标出该市。

“Along the southern axis, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln strike group has continued to provide pressure from the sea along the southeastern side of the coast and has been attriting naval capability all along the strait,” the general said.

凯恩说：“在南部战线，林肯号航空母舰打击群继续从海上对东南沿海施加压力，并持续消耗霍尔木兹海峡沿线的伊朗海军能力。”

It is not the only time that General Caine has acknowledged the role Tomahawk missiles played in the early hours of the war.

这并非凯恩将军首次承认“战斧”导弹在这场战争初期发挥的作用。

“The first shooters at sea were Tomahawks unleashed by the United States Navy,” he said in a briefing to reporters at the Pentagon on March 2, as the Navy “began to conduct strikes across the southern flank in Iran.”

“海上的首批攻击力量是由美国海军发射的‘战斧’导弹，”他在3月2日于五角大楼向记者通报情况时表示，当时海军“已开始对伊朗南部的侧翼展开打击”。

In June, a Navy submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawks at a nuclear facility in Isfahan, Iran, as part of the 12-Day war.

在去年6月那场持续12天的战争中，美国海军一艘潜艇还曾向伊朗伊斯法罕的一处核设施发射了二十多枚“战斧”导弹。

Oil prices surged on Sunday evening, briefly topping $110 a barrel soon after markets opened, in a sign of growing concern that the war in the Middle East will continue to take a toll on energy supplies.

周日晚间，原油价格大幅飙升，开盘后不久一度突破每桶110美元。这表明市场愈发担心持续的中东战争将对能源供应造成严重冲击。

It was the first time in almost four years that the global oil benchmark, known as Brent, cost more than $100 a barrel. Oil is now around 50 percent more expensive than it was before the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28.

这是全球原油基准价格——布伦特原油——近四年来首次突破100美元大关。目前，油价已比2月28日美国与以色列开始打击伊朗前高出约50%。

In Asia, where economies are heavily dependent on imported oil from the Middle East, stocks tumbled in early trading on Monday, falling about 6 percent in Japan and South Korea. U.S. stock futures, which give traders the chance to bet on the market before exchanges open, fell on Sunday evening. Futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones industrial average all fell roughly 1.5 percent.

在经济高度依赖中东进口石油的亚洲，股市在周一早盘大幅下挫，日本和韩国股市跌幅均在6%左右。美国股指期货在周日晚间同样走低，标普500指数、纳斯达克综合指数及道琼斯工业平均指数的期货跌幅均约为1.5%。

President Trump, who campaigned partly on lowering the cost of energy, said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday described the higher oil prices as “short term” and said they were “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.”

特朗普总统曾在竞选中承诺降低能源成本，但他周日在Truth Social上发帖称，油价上涨是“暂时的”，并表示这是“为了美国及世界的安全与和平而付出的极小代价”。

The huge jump in oil prices suggests that traders are increasingly worried about being able to access oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern coast, has been all but closed for more than a week, preventing fuel produced in the region from reaching overseas markets. One-fifth of the world’s oil and substantial amounts of natural gas normally move through the strait each day.

油价的巨幅跳升反映出交易员们日益担心波斯湾油气出口的稳定性。位于伊朗南岸的霍尔木兹海峡已基本封锁超过一周，导致该地区生产的燃料无法进入海外市场。通常情况下，全球五分之一的石油和相当一部分天然气每日需经此海峡运输。

With little sign that shipping will soon be able to return to normal, higher oil prices will continue to drive up prices at the pump at a time when many Americans are worried about the economy. As of Sunday, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline had already climbed about 16 percent since the war started, to a national average of $3.45, according to the AAA motor club. Diesel prices had risen at a faster clip of around 22 percent.

目前几乎没有迹象表明航运能很快恢复正常，高企的油价将持续推高加油站的零售价格，而此时许多美国人正对经济前景感到担忧。据美国汽车协会数据，截至周日，全美普通汽油平均零售价自开战以来已上涨约16%，达到每加仑3.45美元；柴油价格涨幅更高，约为22%。

Natural gas, which is used to heat homes and generate electricity, has also become more expensive, particularly in Europe and in Asia, which depend heavily on imported fuel. Natural gas markets are more regional than oil markets, meaning that the United States, as the world’s top natural gas producer, has been comparatively insulated. As of Sunday evening, U.S. prices were up around 17 percent since the war started.

用于家庭供暖和发电的天然气价格也变得更加昂贵，尤其是在高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲和亚洲。相比石油，天然气市场更具区域性，这意味着作为全球最大天然气生产国的美国受到的冲击相对较小。截至周日晚间，美国天然气价格自开战以来上涨了约17%。

Earlier on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to play down the risk that energy prices would remain high for a long time.

周日早些时候，能源部长克里斯·赖特试图淡化能源价格长期走高的风险。

“You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace, but the world is not short of oil today or natural gas,” Mr. Wright told CNN. He said he expected shipping through the strait to be disrupted for weeks in the worst-case scenario, not months.

“你现在看到的是市场中的一些‘恐惧溢价’，但目前全球并不缺石油或天然气，”赖特在接受CNN采访时表示。他预计，在最坏的情况下，通过海峡的航运中断将持续数周而非数月。

Mr. Trump said last week that the U.S. Navy might escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but Mr. Wright said U.S. forces were focused on limiting Iran’s missile and drone capabilities.

特朗普上周曾表示美国海军可能会为霍尔木兹海峡的油轮护航，但赖特表示，美军目前的重点是限制伊朗的导弹和无人机能力。

The sudden increase in oil and gas prices has raised concerns about inflation. The Federal Reserve typically counters rising prices by keeping interest rates high, to slow the economy and the pace of inflation. But weak jobs data on Friday bolstered the case for a rate cut, setting up a tug of war over the path forward.

油气价格的突然暴涨引发了对通胀的担忧。美联储通常会通过维持高利率来对抗物价上涨，以减缓经济和通胀的速度。然而，周五疲软的就业数据增加了降息的理由，意味着接下来围绕这一决策将会有一场拉锯战。

A measure of investors’ inflation expectations has risen sharply. Investors now expect inflation to rise to around 4.5 percent over the next 12 months, from a forecast of 2.3 percent at the start of the year.

衡量投资者通胀预期的指标已大幅攀升。投资者目前预计未来12个月的通胀率将达到4.5%左右，而年初的预测仅为2.3%。

That has helped push up government bond yields, which underpin borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, has risen roughly 0.2 percentage points since the war began, to 3.56 percent.

这一预期推高了政府债券收益率，进而抬高了企业和消费者的借贷成本。对利率预期敏感的两年期美国国债收益率自战争开始以来已上升约0.2个百分点，达到3.56%。

The sudden and furious attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran this past week, including the killing of the country’s supreme leader, are confirming Xi Jinping’s worldview that hard power is king.

过去一周，美国和以色列军队对伊朗发动了突然且猛烈的攻击，击杀了伊朗最高领袖，这正在印证习近平的一种世界观：硬实力为王。

For years, Mr. Xi, China’s top leader, has warned his country about American military hostility and directed his generals to build a world-class army, or what he called a “Great Wall of Steel,” strong enough to deter the United States and ensure peace on Beijing’s terms.

多年来，中国最高领导人习近平一直警告国内要警惕美国的军事敌意，并指示军方打造一支世界一流的军队——他称之为“钢铁长城”，其强大程度要足以威慑美国，并确保按照北京设定的条件实现和平。

“It is necessary to speak to invaders in the language they know,” Mr. Xi once said. “That is, a war must be fought to deter invasion, and a victory is needed to win peace and respect.”

习近平曾说：“对待侵略者，就得用他们听得懂的语言同他们对话，这就是以战止战、以武止戈，用胜利赢得和平、赢得尊重。”

Mr. Xi’s more than decade-long pursuit of the power to fight fire with fire is now given added urgency because of President Trump’s unapologetic use of military force, which is threatening governments and disrupting a global order that China increasingly sees itself as eventually leading.

十多年来，习近平一直致力于打造以牙还牙的军事能力。如今，由于特朗普总统毫不掩饰地动用军事力量，这一努力显得更加迫切。特朗普的做法不仅威胁各国政府，也正在冲击现有的全球秩序，而中国越来越认为自己终将成为这一秩序的领导者。

While Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump are set to meet in several weeks in Beijing to extend a fragile truce after a punishing trade war last year, the specter of brute American force taking down sovereign leaders like Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and capturing others like President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela remains unsettling for China. Both Ayatollah Khamenei and Mr. Maduro were strategic partners to Beijing.

习近平与特朗普预计将在数周后于北京会晤，以延续去年贸易战后达成的一项脆弱的休战协议。然而，美国以强力手段推翻主权国家领导人——伊朗的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊被击杀、委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被抓捕——仍然令中国感到不安。哈梅内伊和马杜罗都曾是北京的战略伙伴。

Chinese analysts and officials do not believe the United States would target Mr. Xi in the same way, given China’s status as a nuclear power. But Mr. Trump’s embrace of war as a tool to assert American dominance has nonetheless reaffirmed Beijing’s view that the United States remains China’s most enduring threat.

中国的分析人士和官员认为，鉴于中国是一个核武国家，美国不太可能以同样方式针对习近平。但特朗普把战争当作维护美国主导地位工具的做法无疑强化了北京的看法：美国始终是中国最持久的威胁。

9月在北京举行的纪念二战结束80周年阅兵式上，中国展示了核导弹。

One influential Chinese political scientist, Zheng Yongnian at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s campus in Shenzhen, highlighted perceptions in China that the United States was using Israel as a springboard to go to war with Iran. As such, he said, China must prevent geopolitical rivals like Japan and the Philippines — both treaty allies of the United States — from becoming the “Israel of East Asia” and the “Israel of Southeast Asia.”

颇具影响力的政治学者、香港中文大学（深圳）的郑永年指出，中国国内普遍认为，美国利用以色列作为跳板对伊朗发动战争。他说，正因如此，中国必须防止日本和菲律宾等地缘政治对手——这两个国家都是美国的条约盟友——成为“东亚的以色列“和”东南亚的以色列“。

“We must avoid these nations being led by the nose by the United States to achieve their own objectives,” Mr. Zheng told The Beijing News.

郑永年在接受《新京报》采访时说：“要避免这些国家像以色列一样牵着美国鼻子走，来达到自己的目的。”

Other analysts, like Shen Dingli, an international relations expert based in Shanghai, said the demonstration of American military might was forcing China to take a “sober look at the balance of power.”

另一些分析人士，如上海的国际关系专家沈丁立则表示，美国军事力量的展示正在迫使中国“冷静审视力量对比”。

“Beijing now sees more clearly the extent of American capabilities,” Mr. Shen said.

沈丁立说：“北京现在更清楚地看到了美国的实力。”

China is watching the conflict not unlike the way it did during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when the powerful display of advanced U.S. military weaponry was a wake-up call to modernize the People’s Liberation Army.

中国正在关注这场冲突，就像当年观察1991年海湾战争那样。当时，美国先进军事武器的强大展示给中国人民解放军敲响了推进现代化的警钟。

Already, China’s military posted a graphic on social media this week listing five lessons from the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Among them were the importance of “superior firepower,” echoing Mr. Xi’s mantra. It also listed the need for “self-reliance,” most likely a reference to China’s bid to reduce its dependence on other countries for critical inputs like energy and defense production.

本周，中国军方已经在社交媒体上发布了一张图表，总结美以对伊朗打击带来的五点教训。其中之一是“武器批判”，这呼应了习近平的一贯论调。图表还提到必须依靠“自己”，这很可能指中国努力减少对其他国家在能源和国防生产等关键要素方面的依赖。

上周四，一个家庭抵达德黑兰参加悼念活动，悼念被美国和以色列空袭炸死的伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。

Top of the list, however, was that China must guard against “the enemy within,” an apparent catchall to describe Beijing’s longstanding fear of foreign spying and any efforts to foment “color revolutions” to overthrow the government. Mr. Xi has built a ruthless security apparatus to guard against such threats, which can be real: Last month, the C.I.A. released a new video aimed at recruiting spies within China’s military, hoping to exploit a sweeping anti-corruption campaign by Mr. Xi that has purged numerous senior commanders.

不过，排在首位的教训是中国必须警惕“内奸”。这一表述显然是一个笼统概念，用来描述北京长期以来对外国间谍活动以及煽动“颜色革命”推翻政府企图的担忧。习近平已经建立起一套强硬的安全体系来防范这些威胁，而这些威胁有时也确实存在：上个月，美国中央情报局发布了一段新视频，试图在中国军队内部招募间谍，希望利用习近平反腐行动清洗大量高级指挥官所带来的不满情绪。

One of the broadest takeaways being discussed in China is to not be lulled into a false sense of security by entering negotiations with Washington. That the first U.S. and Israeli bombs fell on Iran when the parties were still supposed to be in talks struck Beijing as duplicitous and an abuse of American power.

目前中国国内正在广泛讨论的一点是，不要因为与华盛顿谈判而产生虚假的安全感。当美国和以色列的第一枚炸弹落在伊朗时，各方原本仍处于谈判之中，北京视之为虚伪和美国滥用权力。

“The decision to strike while talks were underway conveys a disturbing precedent: Diplomacy is not a forum for sovereign equals but an instrument subject to the whims of the dominant power,” read an editorial in Chinese state media.

中国官方媒体的一篇社论写道：“在谈判仍在进行时发动打击开创了一个令人不安的先例：外交不再是主权国家平等协商的平台，而是受制于主导力量意志的工具。”

Under the Trump administration, Chinese analysts say, the United States has become more unpredictable and more dangerous, forcing China to be increasingly vigilant.

中国分析人士认为，在特朗普政府时期，美国变得更加不可预测，也更加危险，这迫使中国必须更加警惕。

“The strategic takeaway for China is pretty simple,” said Song Zhongping, a former Chinese military officer who is now an independent commentator. “Don’t assume your adversaries will play by the rules. They may strike without warning, and they may do whatever it takes, ignoring both the rules of the game and the rules of war.”

前中国军官、现为独立评论员的宋忠平说：“对中国来说，战略上的结论其实很简单：不要假设你的对手会按规则行事。他们可能在没有任何预警的情况下发动打击，也可能不惜一切代价，无视游戏规则和战争规则。”

1月，委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗和他的妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯被押下直升机，前往曼哈顿的联邦法院。

That has implications for how Beijing assesses Washington’s sincerity at a time when Mr. Trump has signaled that he wants to be less confrontational with China. His administration recently delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing. While that might appear like an olive branch, analysts said Mr. Xi would most likely remain skeptical and undeterred from his military buildup.

这也影响到北京如何评估华盛顿的诚意。特朗普近期表示希望减少与中国的对抗。他的政府最近推迟宣布一项对台湾的军售计划，北京宣称对这个自治岛屿拥有主权。虽然这看起来像是橄榄枝，但分析人士认为，习近平很可能仍然保持怀疑态度，并不会因此放缓军事建设。

“From Beijing’s perspective, the United States may frame its actions as a pursuit of peace, but what it really offers is peace through domination or containment,” said Kirsten Asdal, who leads the China-focused consultancy firm Asdal Advisory Group. “Xi doesn’t want that for China. He wants peace through Chinese victory.”

研究中国问题的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询负责人柯尔斯滕·阿斯达尔说：“在北京看来，美国可能将其行动包装成追求和平，但它真正提供的是通过支配或遏制实现的和平。习近平不希望中国接受这种和平。他希望通过中国的胜利实现和平。”

To accomplish that, Mr. Xi has already created one of the world’s most formidable militaries, one buoyed by a giant navy and advanced weapons like stealth drones and hypersonic missiles that are designed to thwart U.S. attempts to come to Taiwan’s defense if China decides to invade.

为实现这一目标，习近平已经打造出世界上最具实力的军队之一，这支军队拥有规模庞大的海军，以及隐形无人机和高超音速导弹等先进武器。这些武器的设计目的之一就是在中国决定进攻台湾时阻止美国前来支援。

China’s chokehold on the mining and processing of critical minerals used to manufacture a spectrum of modern technologies, from cellphones to precision-guided missiles, has also supercharged Beijing’s leverage in the world, getting Mr. Trump to back down on his tariffs.

中国在关键矿产的开采和加工领域的垄断地位也极大增强了北京在全球的影响力，并迫使特朗普在关税问题上让步。这些矿产被用于制造从手机到精确制导导弹的各种现代技术。

And on Thursday, China’s national legislature released the country’s next five-year plan, which included pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies to further resist U.S. pressure.

此外，中国全国人大上周四公布了新的五年规划，其中包括向人工智能、量子计算以及其他战略技术领域投入大量资源，以进一步抵御美国压力。

中国垄断了许多现代技术所需的关键矿物的开采和加工。位于无锡郊外的一家精炼厂是世界上唯一一家生产超纯镝的工厂，超纯镝是人工智能芯片必需的材料。

Those efforts underscore the view in China that Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump speak the same language when it comes to valuing hard power, but that their means of achieving and wielding it are vastly different.

这些举措凸显出中国的一种看法：在重视硬实力这一点上，习近平与特朗普实际上说的是同一种语言，但两人实现和运用这种力量的方式却截然不同。

Beijing has used America’s military actions as a way to cast itself by contrast as a peaceful nation that champions global stability — despite ample evidence to the contrary, such as China’s aggressive military behavior in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

北京一直利用美国的军事行动将自己塑造成一个倡导全球稳定的和平国家——尽管存在大量相反证据，例如中国在台湾海峡和南海的强势军事行为。

For China, “strength is for self-defense and stability, not expansion,” said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

北京大学全球合作与理解研究院执行院长王栋说，对中国而言，“实力是为了自卫和稳定，而不是为了扩张”。

When the United States seeks strength, he continued, it does so with “disproportionate raw hard power” that ultimately cannot guarantee any of its goals, such as the emergence of a friendly and peaceful government in Iran.

他还说，美国寻求实力时依赖的是“失衡的、赤裸裸的硬实力”，而这种力量最终无法保证实现其目标，例如在伊朗出现一个友好而和平的政府。

“What we are witnessing,” Mr. Wang said, “is the last-ditch efforts of a fading U.S.-led order.”

王栋说：“我们正在所看到的，是一个由美国主导的秩序在走向衰落时的最后挣扎。”

Western analysts are more skeptical about China’s professed modesty, saying Beijing, too, is likely to decide that it needs a larger military presence overseas and will risk becoming engaged in foreign entanglements.

西方分析人士则对中国所宣称的克制态度更加怀疑。他们认为北京也可能认为需要在海外拥有更大的军事存在，并可能因此卷入外国纷争。

“China,” said Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, “will feel the same tractor beam that pulls all great powers toward building capabilities that can reach further from home.”

兰德公司中国研究中心主任裘德·布兰切特说：“中国也会感受到那种吸引所有大国的‘牵引力’，促使它们不断建设能够把力量投射到更远地区的能力。”

The Feb. 28 strike that hit an elementary school in the southern Iranian town of Minab is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the United States and Israel attacked Iran — and no side has yet taken responsibility.

2月28日对伊朗南部米纳卜市一所小学的袭击是美国和以色列打击伊朗以来已知的导致平民死亡最惨重的事件——而到目前为止，没有任何一方承认对此负责。

But a body of evidence assembled by The New York Times — including newly released satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos — indicates the school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on an adjacent naval base operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

但《纽约时报》整理的一系列证据——包括新发布的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实验证的视频——表明，这栋校舍是在一次精准打击中遭到严重破坏的，而在同一时间，邻近的伊斯兰革命卫队海军基地也遭到了袭击。

And official statements that U.S. forces were attacking naval targets near the Strait of Hormuz, where the I.R.G.C. base is located, suggest they were most likely to have carried out the strike.

由于伊朗革命卫队的这个基地就位于霍尔木兹海峡附近，而美军官方声明称正在打击该地区的各处海军目标，因此这次袭击极有可能是美军实施的。

The White House referred The Times to remarks by the press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, at a news conference on Wednesday. When asked if the United States had conducted the airstrike on the school, she responded, “Not that we know of,” adding that “the Department of War is investigating this matter.”

白宫让《纽约时报》参考新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在周三新闻发布会上的表态。当被问及美国是否对这所学校进行了空袭时，她回答说，“据我们所知没有”，并补充道，“战争部正在调查此事。”

Determining precisely what happened has been impeded by the lack of visible weapons fragments and the inability of outside reporters to reach the scene. The total death toll has yet to be independently confirmed, but Iranian health officials and state media said the strike had killed at least 175 people, many of them children, at the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school.

由于看不到武器碎片，外部记者也无法抵达现场，因此很难准确确定到底发生了什么。死亡总人数尚未得到独立证实，但伊朗卫生官员和官方媒体称，袭击造成沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学至少175人死亡，其中许多是儿童。

卫星图像显示出2月28日伊朗南部米纳卜市小学遭受袭击后的破坏程度。

In the several days since the attack, U.S. officials have neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that an investigation was underway. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, told reporters on Sunday that “as of now,” he was not aware of any Israeli military operation “in that area” at the time.

在袭击发生后的几天里，美国官员既没有确认也没有否认责任。美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯周三表示，相关调查正在进行中。以色列军方发言人纳达夫·肖沙尼周日对记者表示，“截至目前”，他并不知道以色列军队当时在“该地区”有任何军事行动。

U.S. officials in public statements have indicated that on the day in question, U.S. planes were conducting operations in the region where the school was located.

美国官员在公开声明中表示，事发当天，美军飞机确实在这所学校所在的地区执行了军事行动。

2月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前，工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。

The elementary school is in the small southern town of Minab, more than 600 miles from Tehran but near the critical waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. Since Saturday is the start of the Iranian workweek, children and teachers were in class at the time of the strike, health officials and Iranian state media said.

这所小学位于伊朗南部小城米纳卜，距离德黑兰近1000公里，但靠近战略要道霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗的工作周从星期六开始，据伊朗卫生官员和官方媒体称，袭击发生时孩子们和教师正在上课。

The strikes were first reported on social media shortly after 11:30 a.m. local time. An analysis of those posts — as well as bystander photos and videos captured within an hour of the strikes — help corroborate that the school was hit at the same time as the naval base. One video, pinpointed by geolocation experts, showed several large plumes of smoke billowing from the area of the base and the school.

袭击发生不久后，当地时间上午11点30分刚过，社交媒体上首次出现了相关消息。对这些帖子以及袭击发生后一小时内拍摄的目击者照片和视频的分析，有助于证实该校与海军基地几乎同时遭到袭击。其中一段经地理定位专家确认的视频显示，从基地和学校所在区域升起了几股巨大的浓烟。

Images showing extensive damage to the school building were shared by an Iranian rights group soon after, and videos posted by Iranian media and independently verified by The Times showed throngs of people searching through rubble for survivors and victims.

一个伊朗人权组织很快发布了学校建筑遭到严重破坏的图片，伊朗媒体发布并经《纽约时报》独立核实的视频显示，大批民众在废墟中搜寻幸存者和遇难者。

Another video was filmed by a motorist passing the entrance of the Revolutionary Guards base. The video showed the Revolutionary Guards’ insignia on two entrances to the compound and signs for a naval medical command.

另一段视频由一名驾车经过革命卫队基地入口的司机拍摄。视频中可以看到基地两个入口处的革命卫队标识，以及指向海军医疗指挥部的指示牌。

《纽约时报》的分析发现，被击中的军事建筑上方升起了黑色烟柱。

To more fully assess the damage inside the base and what might have caused it, The Times ordered new satellite imagery from the provider Planet Labs. An image taken on Wednesday further corroborated the chronology.

The imagery shows that multiple precision strikes hit at least six Revolutionary Guards buildings along with the school. Four buildings inside the naval base were completely destroyed and two other buildings showed impact points at the center of their roofs, consistent with such precision hits.

为了更全面地评估基地内部的损毁情况及其可能原因，《纽约时报》从卫星图像提供商Planet Labs订购了新的卫星图像。周三拍摄的一张图像进一步印证了事件发生的时间顺序。

Wes J. Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the U.S. Air Force and was a senior adviser on civilian harm at the Pentagon, reviewed the new satellite images and concluded that all of the buildings, including the school, had been hit with “picture perfect” target strikes.

图像显示，多次精确打击击中了革命卫队基地内至少六栋建筑以及这所学校。海军基地内的四座建筑被完全摧毁，另外两座建筑的屋顶中央有明显的撞击点，符合精准打击的特征。

Mr. Bryant, who has been critical of the Trump administration, said the most likely explanation was that the school had been a “target misidentification” — that forces had attacked the site without realizing that it might have had large numbers of civilians inside.

曾在空军服役、在五角大楼担任过平民伤害问题高级顾问的国家安全分析师韦斯·布莱恩特分析了这些新卫星图像后得出结论，所有建筑（包括学校）都是被“堪称完美”的目标打击命中的。

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. forces were carrying out strikes at the time along southern Iran. A map he presented showed that an area including Minab had been targeted by strikes in the first 100 hours of the operation, although it did not explicitly identify the town.

一直对特朗普政府持批评态度的布莱恩特表示，最有可能的解释是，这所学校被“误判为目标”，也就是说，发动攻击的部队在打击时没有意识到该地点可能有大量平民。

At the same briefing, General Caine said Israeli forces had predominantly been operating farther north in the country. He also identified several U.S. military operations targeting the southern and southeastern areas of Iran, without mentioning any Israeli activity there.

参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周三的新闻发布会上表示，美军当时正在伊朗南部实施打击。他展示的一张地图显示，在行动的最初100小时内，包括米纳卜在内的地区成为了打击目标，尽管地图并未明确标出该市。

在同一场简报会上，凯恩将军表示，以色列军队主要在伊朗更靠北的地区行动。他还提到，美军在伊朗南部和东南部开展了多项军事行动，但没有提及以军在当地有任何行动。

Specifically, General Caine said: “Along the southern axis, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln strike group has continued to provide pressure from the sea along the southeastern side of the coast and has been attriting naval capability all along the strait.”The school at one point was part of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base, according to satellite images from 2013 reviewed by The Times. Roads had led from other areas of the base to the school building that was struck on Saturday. But by September 2016, satellite images show, the same building was partitioned off and was no longer connected to the base.

Publicly available historical satellite imagery shows the structure bears the hallmarks of a school, including a sports field and other recreational areas that were added over time.

凯恩将军具体介绍说：“在南部战线，林肯号航空母舰打击群继续从海上对东南沿海施加压力，并持续消耗霍尔木兹海峡沿线的伊朗海军能力。”根据《纽约时报》查阅的2013年卫星图像，这所学校曾一度是革命卫队海军基地的一部分。当时，从基地其他区域有道路通向周六遭到打击的那栋学校建筑。但卫星图像显示，到2016年9月，这栋建筑已被隔离出来，不再与基地相连。

“Given the U.S.’s intelligence capabilities, they should have known that a school was in the vicinity,” said Beth Van Schaack, a former State Department official who teaches at Stanford University’s Center for Human Rights and International Justice.

公开的历史卫星图像显示，该建筑具备学校的典型特征，包括一个运动场和后来增加的其他活动设施。

Some theories have circulated online suggesting that a misfired Iranian missile was responsible for the strike on the school, but The Times and other online analysts debunked the claim, in part by determining that a single errant missile wouldn’t have caused such precise and targeted damage to several buildings across the naval base.

斯坦福大学人权与国际司法中心教师、美国国务院前官员贝丝·范沙克表示：“以美国的情报能力，他们本应该知道附近有一所学校。”

U.S. officials say the strike is still under investigation. If it’s confirmed to be an American bomb that hit Shajarah Tayyebeh, one question is likely to be whether the school strike was a mistake or whether it was targeted based on outdated information.

网络上也流传一些说法，称袭击学校的是一枚误射的伊朗导弹，但《纽约时报》和其他网络分析人士已否定了这一说法，部分依据是：一枚偏离的导弹不可能对海军基地内的几栋建筑造成如此精确和有针对性的破坏。

Janina Dill, an expert on the laws of war at Oxford University, said attackers were obligated to “verify the status” of what they targeted to ensure that civilians were not being harmed. Failure to do so could violate international law, she added.

美国官员表示，这次打击仍在调查之中。如果最终确认击中沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学的是一枚美国炸弹，那么一个关键问题将是：袭击学校究竟是一次误击，还是基于过时情报而进行的目标锁定。

Reporting was contributed by Sanam Mahoozi, Kiana Hayeri, Parin Behrooz, Aric Toler, Shawn McCreesh and Eric Schmitt. Videos produced by Alexander Cardia, Cynthia Silva and Dmitriy Khavin. Graphics editing was contributed by Rafaela Balster.

牛津大学战争法专家贾尼娜·迪尔表示，攻击方有义务“核实目标的身份”，以确保不会伤害平民。她补充说，如果未能做到这一点，可能会违反国际法。

Perhaps no business needs certainty more than the auto industry. It usually takes at least four years to design a new model and bring it to market, requiring carmakers to divine what buyers will find appealing by the time the vehicles reach showrooms.

或许没有哪个行业比汽车业更需要确定性。一款新车型从设计到上市通常至少需要四年时间，这要求车企必须预判出当车辆最终进入展厅时，消费者会青睐哪些特性。

Yet industry veterans say they can’t remember a time when the biggest carmakers faced as much uncertainty as they do now. They have been whipsawed by tariffs. Chinese carmakers are breathing down their necks around the world. Self-driving taxi companies like Waymo are changing the very nature of transportation. Software has replaced horsepower as a key selling point. Sales are flat almost everywhere, and profits are declining.

但行业资深人士表示，他们记忆中从未有过像现在这样的时候，大型车企面临如此巨大的不确定性。关税政策反复冲击；中国车企在全球范围内步步紧逼；Waymo等自动驾驶出租车公司正在改变交通的本质；软件已取代马力成为核心卖点；全球几乎所有地区销量都陷入停滞，利润不断下滑。

How U.S. carmakers cope with this pivotal moment will determine whether they survive as global players or slide into irrelevance, becoming niche manufacturers of pickups and sport utility vehicles that only Americans buy.

美国车企如何应对这一关键节点将决定它们是继续作为全球玩家生存下去，还是沦为无足轻重的小众厂商，生产只供美国人购买的皮卡和运动型多用途汽车。

The early indications are not promising. Many established U.S. and European carmakers have been stumped by electric vehicles at seemingly every turn. First, Tesla’s meteoric rise caught them unawares. They responded by investing in new factories but are now pulling back after the U.S. government repealed tax credits and other subsidies for those cars.

初步迹象并不乐观。许多老牌美国和欧洲车企在电动汽车领域似乎处处碰壁。先是特斯拉的迅速崛起令他们措手不及。它们随即投资建设新工厂，但在美国政府取消电动汽车税收抵免等补贴后，如今又开始收缩战线。

“The term ‘unprecedented’ is always overused. But it is really everything coming together at once,” said Stuart Taylor, a former Ford Motor executive who is chief product officer at Envorso, which advises carmakers on software.

“‘史无前例’这个词总是被滥用，但现在的情况确实是所有问题一起到来了，”曾任职于福特汽车、现任软件咨询公司Envorso首席产品官的斯图尔特·泰勒说。

U.S. carmakers, in particular, face some difficult choices.

美国汽车制造商尤其面临艰难抉择。

President Trump has given them a short-term gain by dismantling clean air regulations and fuel economy standards, making it easier to sell pickups and sport utility vehicles that are very profitable.

通过废除清洁空气法规和燃油经济性标准，特朗普总统为它们带来了短期利好，让利润丰厚的皮卡和运动型多功能车更容易销售。

Should they use that relief to please Wall Street and make as much money as possible? Or should they keep investing in new technologies?

它们应该利用这种宽松政策取悦华尔街、尽可能赚取利润，还是应该继续投资新技术？

Auto experts say old-line companies risk becoming obsolete if they don’t learn how to make appealing, profitable electric vehicles, which most executives expect to eventually replace cars that run on gasoline despite the Trump’s administration efforts to promote fossil fuels. Improvements in electric vehicle technology mean that, within a few years, they will be cheaper to buy and will charge in 15 minutes or less.

汽车行业专家表示，如果老牌车企不能学会打造有吸引力、能盈利的电动汽车，就有可能被淘汰。尽管特朗普政府大力推广化石燃料，但大多数高管预计，电动汽车最终将取代燃油车。电动汽车技术的进步意味着几年内购车成本将会更低，充电时间可缩短至15分钟以内。

One of the biggest problems established manufacturers have is that many of the electric models they sell have fared poorly against cars from Tesla and other newer companies.

老牌车企面临的最大问题之一是，它们推出的许多电动车型在市场竞争中屡屡败给特斯拉等新兴企业。

Tesla and Chinese carmakers like BYD have a substantial lead in battery technology and software. Established Western carmakers tend to lose money on electric vehicles and for the most part are also behind on self-driving cars. The Chinese have a head start there, too, as do Tesla and Waymo, a division of Google’s parent company that operates autonomous taxis in 10 U.S. cities and is expanding rapidly.

特斯拉以及比亚迪等中国车企在电池技术和软件方面拥有显著领先优势。传统西方车企在电动汽车领域大多处于亏损状态，并且在自动驾驶领域整体落后。中国企业在这个领域同样起步更早，特斯拉以及谷歌母公司旗下的Waymo也是如此——Waymo已在美国10座城市运营自动驾驶出租车，并正在快速扩张。

“It’s not impossible that in 10 years we wake up and see that we actually don’t have a domestic industry in the sense of something that does significant research and development,” said Susan Helper, a professor at Case Western Reserve University who was chief economist at the Commerce Department under President Barack Obama.

“10年后我们醒来时，可能会发现，国内已不存在一个能进行大规模研发的汽车产业，”凯斯西储大学教授、奥巴马政府时期商务部首席经济学家苏珊·赫尔珀说。

“Maybe Ford and G.M. exist as nameplates but the powertrains and their cars are all Chinese,” said Ms. Helper, who also advised President Joseph R. Biden Jr. on electric vehicles.

“也许福特和通用还作为品牌存在，但动力总成和整车都来自中国，”曾在拜登政府担任电动汽车政策顾问的赫尔珀表示。

得克萨斯州奥斯汀的一辆Waymo自动驾驶汽车，摄于去年。老牌美国汽车制造商在自动驾驶汽车领域远远落后。

The challenges facing automakers in the United States and Europe come after a tough year.

经历了去年一年的艰难后，美国和欧洲车企如今更是面临重重挑战。

Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the European-American company that owns Chrysler, Fiat, Jeep and Peugeot, reported multibillion-dollar losses at the end of 2025 as they delayed and canceled electric vehicle investments.

福特、通用汽车，以及拥有克莱斯勒、菲亚特、Jeep和标致品牌的欧美合资公司Stellantis推迟并取消了电动汽车投资，在2025年底均报告数十亿美元亏损。

Even automakers that made money last year, like the German luxury brand Mercedes-Benz, made a lot less of it. Among major automakers, only Toyota of Japan managed a significant increase in sales during 2025. Analysts expect industrywide sales to be flat again in 2026. (Ford did report a 1 percent increase in sales for the year.)

即使是德国豪华品牌梅赛德斯-奔驰等去年实现盈利的车企，利润也大幅缩水。在主要车企中，只有日本丰田在2025年实现销量显著增长。分析师预计，2026年全行业销量将再次持平。（福特报告全年销量增长为1%。）

Automakers say things are not as bad as they look. Many have cash reserves they built up during the pandemic, when shortages allowed them to raise car prices.

车企表示，实际情况并没有看上去那么糟糕。许多企业仍持有新冠疫情期间积累的现金储备，当时供应短缺使它们得以抬高车价。

G.M. felt confident enough in its finances to spend $6 billion last year to buy back its own shares, a way of returning money to investors. The company has earmarked a similar amount for 2026.

通用汽车对自身财务状况充满信心，去年斥资60亿美元回购股票，以此向投资者返还资金。该公司还为2026年划拨了同等规模的资金。

“The balance sheet of G.M. has probably never been stronger,” Paul Jacobson, the company’s chief financial officer, said last month at a conference on the automobile industry organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

“通用汽车的资产负债表可能从未如此强劲，”公司首席财务官保罗·雅各布森上月在芝加哥联邦储备银行举办的一场汽车行业会议上表示。

Ford also returned money to shareholders through dividends.

福特也通过分红向股东返还资金。

Such payouts generate good will on Wall Street and may help companies raise capital later, said John Paul MacDuffie, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. But he noted that the money could be better spent on new products and technology.

宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授约翰·保罗·麦克达菲表示，此类回报能在华尔街赢得好感，或许有助于企业后续融资。但他指出，这些资金如果用于新产品和技术研发将更具价值。

“I don’t know if I fully understand the strategic logic behind the stock buybacks,” Mr. MacDuffie said. He added that U.S. carmakers had advantages, including the ability to exploit innovations from Silicon Valley in ways that Chinese carmakers cannot.

“我不太确定我完全理解股票回购背后的战略逻辑，”麦克达菲说。他还称，美国车企仍具备优势，包括能够利用硅谷的创新成果，这是中国车企难以做到的。

Carmakers say they continue to invest in electric vehicles, batteries and self-driving cars, even if the pace has slowed. G.M. has a dozen electric models, including battery-powered versions of the Chevrolet Equinox, the Chevrolet Blazer and the Cadillac Escalade IQ.

车企称，尽管步伐放缓，但它们仍在继续投资电动汽车、电池和自动驾驶技术。通用汽车已推出十余款电动车型，包括雪佛兰探界者、雪佛兰开拓者以及凯迪拉克凯雷德IQ的纯电版本。

“We continue to believe in E.V.s,” Mary T. Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, said during a conference call in January. The company is investing in battery technology and ways to manufacture electric vehicles profitably, executives say. Last year, Ford discontinued the electric F-150 Lightning pickup, but is planning to begin selling a midsize electric pickup next year for around $30,000. The truck will be able to travel 300 miles between charges. Ford sequestered the design and engineering team in California to insulate it from corporate meddling.

 “我们仍然看好电动车，”通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·博拉今年1月在一次电话会议上表示。公司高管称，通用汽车正在投资电池技术，并探索如何实现电动汽车的盈利。去年，福特停止生产电动皮卡F-150 Lightning，但计划明年开始推出一款中型电动皮卡，售价在3万美元左右。这款车充一次电可行驶近500公里。福特还将该车型的设计和工程团队集中在加州，与公司其他部门隔离，以避免受到公司内部的干扰。

The pickup will address “the core of the market in our home market where there’s not a lot of competition,” Jim Farley, Ford’s chief executive, told investors and analysts last month. He added, “The real question that I ask myself is how will the Chinese change the game.”

福特首席执行官吉姆·法利上个月对投资者和分析师表示，这款皮卡将瞄准“我们本土市场的核心需求，而这个领域目前竞争并不激烈”。他还补充说：“我真正思考的问题是，中国企业将如何改变游戏规则。”

Ford executives say they have not dialed back investment in electric vehicles, just redirected the money to products that are more likely to make a profit. In the future, the company plans to offer a new version of the Lightning that will run on battery power but also have a gasoline motor that can charge the battery when needed.

福特高管表示，公司并没有减少对电动车的投资，只是把资金转向更有可能实现盈利的产品。未来，福特计划推出一款新的Lightning版本，它仍将使用电池驱动，但会配备一台汽油发动机，在需要时为电池充电。

In Europe, Ford plans to cut costs by producing electric vehicles using technology developed by the French carmaker Renault.

在欧洲，福特计划通过采用法国汽车制造商雷诺开发的技术来生产电动车，以降低成本。

Chinese companies like BYD, Geely and SAIC are effectively banned from the United States by tariffs. But they are taking market share from Ford in places like Asia, Australia and Europe. The Chinese probably can’t be kept out of U.S. showrooms forever. Mr. Trump has mused about letting them build factories in the United States.

由于关税的原因，比亚迪、吉利、上汽等中国车企实际上被挡在了美国市场之外。但它们正在亚洲、澳大利亚和欧洲等地抢占福特的市场份额。中国汽车或许不能永远被挡在美国市场之外。特朗普已在考虑让它们在美国建厂。

Carmakers from China are often accused of unfair competition because they receive government subsidies. But there’s more to it than that, analysts say.

中国汽车制造商经常被指责进行不公平竞争，因为它们获得了政府补贴。但分析人士表示，问题不止于此。

BYD sells vehicles in China for a lot less than Tesla, which also makes cars in that country, largely by doing things like making its own batteries and other components rather than buying them, according to the Rhodium Group, a research firm. Subsidies account for only a small portion of the difference in prices of BYD and Tesla cars.

研究公司荣鼎集团表示，由于自己做电池和其他零部件而非向外采购，比亚迪在中国国内的售价比同样在中国生产的特斯拉低得多。补贴在比亚迪和特斯拉价格差异中只占很小一部分。

The Chinese also move at astonishing speed — some companies from that country can develop new models in as little as 14 months, said Mark Wakefield, a managing director at the consulting firm AlixPartners who specializes in the auto industry.

中国企业的行动速度也令人惊讶。咨询公司艾睿铂负责汽车行业的董事总经理马克·韦克菲尔德表示，一些中国公司开发一款新车型最短只需14个月。

The Chinese companies make decisions more quickly, use virtual simulations for testing and are willing to take risks that Western automakers might not, Mr. Wakefield said.

韦克菲尔德说，中国企业做决策更快，利用虚拟仿真进行测试，并且愿意承担一些西方汽车制造商可能不愿意承担的风险。

U.S. automakers realize that they need to become faster and more innovative, he said. But it’s not clear whether they can overhaul their organizations quickly enough.

他说，美国汽车制造商已经意识到自己需要变得更快、更具创新性。但目前还不清楚他们能否以足够快的速度对组织结构进行彻底改革。

“Some of the senior executives have a significant sense of urgency,” Mr. Wakefield said. “It’s just tough to translate that into revolutionary change.”

韦克菲尔德表示：“一些高管确实有很强的紧迫感，但要把这种紧迫感转化为革命性的改变，却非常困难。”

Since World War II, presidents of both parties have found ways to hollow out the Constitution’s constraints on their power to order military attacks. President Trump’s unilateral decision to launch a war against Iran threatens to gut nearly all of what little remains.

自第二次世界大战以来，两党的美国总统都各显神通，架空了宪法对其发动军事攻击的权力的约束。特朗普总统单方面决定对伊朗开战可能将抹去最后仅存的那一点约束。

It is supposed to be a foundational principle of American democracy that unless the United States is under attack, the power to declare war is vested in Congress. But especially since the start of the Cold War, presidents of both parties have chipped away at that by claiming a right to order the military into various limited hostile situations.

美国民主的一项基本原则是：除非美国遭受攻击，否则宣战权属于国会。但两党总统——尤其是自冷战开始以来——都通过宣称有权下令军队进入各种有限的敌对状态逐步削弱了这一原则。

Some lawmakers complained. But as an institution, Congress acquiesced. Consistently paralyzed by competing impulses — party loyalty, support for the policy goals of various deployments or fear of being accused of undercutting troops already in harm’s way — lawmakers let presidents get away with serial power grabs.

一些议员表达了不满。但作为一个整体机构，国会选择了默许。出于党派忠诚、支持各项军事部署的政策目标，或是害怕被指责损害本已身处险境的部队，议员们任由总统一次次攫取权力。

Successive administrations built on their predecessors’ innovations, a one-way ratchet expanding the circumstances in which presidents had claimed and demonstrated that they could by themselves deploy troops into combat. As precedents accumulated, the split between how the founders clearly intended decisions about initiating war to be made and how the country was governed in practice kept widening.

历届政府在前任的创新基础上继续推进，出现了一种单向棘轮的效应，总统们在越来越多的情形下声称并用实际行动证明，他们可以单方面决定动用军队投入战斗。随着先例不断累积，治国先贤们在发动战争方面做出的意图清晰的决定，与现实中国家治理方式的裂痕持续扩大。

Even so, the prospect of attacking Iran, absent a literally imminent threat of attack by the country, had stood apart as a textbook example of what would seemingly still require congressional authorization. The potential for rapid spiraling — of retaliatory strikes on U.S. citizens, troops and allies in neighboring countries, of escalation into a bloody regional conflagration with global economic consequences — seemed too extreme a risk for any one person to decide to take on.

即便如此，在没有直接、迫在眉睫的攻击威胁的情况下进攻伊朗一直被视为一个仍需国会授权的典型例子。局势迅速升级的可能性——对邻国美国公民、军队和盟友的报复性打击，升级为造成全球经济后果的血腥地区大战——对任何人来说都是过于极端的风险。

Asked to detail its legal analysis, the White House provided a brief statement that described decades of misdeeds by Iran, claiming that Mr. Trump “exercised his authority as commander in chief to defend U.S. personnel and bases in the region.”

在被要求详细说明法律分析时，白宫发表了一份简短声明，列举了伊朗数十年的不当行为，声称特朗普“为保护该地区美方人员及基地而行使了最高统帅权”。

Process is no guarantee. Some presidentially ordered operations have gone smoothly, while the congressionally authorized wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are widely considered fiascoes. But given such risks, the question is who the founders thought should decide, and whether that still means anything.

程序并不能保证结果。一些总统下令的军事行动进展顺利，而国会授权的阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争却被普遍认为是一场灾难。但考虑到此类风险，问题在于治国先贤们认为应当由谁来做决定，以及如今这样做是否仍有意义。

The House on Thursday rejected a resolution directing Mr. Trump to cease the war without congressional authorization, and the Senate defeated the same measure a day earlier in a nearly party-line vote. Even if it had passed both chambers, the president could have vetoed it.

众议院周四否决了一项要求特朗普在未经国会授权的情况下停止战争的决议；参议院在前一天以几乎完全符合党派分野的投票结果击败了同样的措施。即便该决议在两院获得通过，总统仍可将其否决。

Regardless, Mr. Trump has already established a new precedent. His Iran war expands the scope of the kinds of “major combat operations” that presidents in the modern era have demonstrated they can start on their own authority. Executive branch lawyers will be able to cite this moment as support for blessing future unilateral presidential war-making.

无论如何，特朗普已经确立了一个新的先例。他的伊朗战争扩大了现代总统已证明可自行授权开展的“重大作战行动”的范围。行政部门的律师将能够援引这一时刻为未来总统单方面发动战争的合法性背书。

A remnant of a line remains uncrossed for now: While Mr. Trump briefly sent ground forces into Venezuela in January, accepting the risk of U.S. casualties, he has yet to put boots on the ground in Iran. It appears his plan is to avoid doing so.

目前仍有一条底线尚未被跨越：尽管特朗普今年1月曾短暂派遣地面部队进入委内瑞拉，接受了美军出现伤亡的风险，但他尚未在伊朗投送地面部队。看起来他的计划是避免这样做。

Still, in a letter notifying lawmakers two days after he started the war, Mr. Trump warned that while he “desires a quick and enduring peace, it is not possible at this time to know the full scope and duration of military operations that may be necessary.”

尽管如此，在他发动战争两天后通知议员的信中，特朗普警告称，虽然他“渴望迅速而持久的和平，但目前尚无法预知可能需要的军事行动的范围和持续时间”。

Jack Goldsmith, a Harvard Law professor and former senior Justice Department official in the George W. Bush administration, said Mr. Trump’s unilateral launch of the Iran war may be remembered as the death of any pretense that law and executive branch lawyers can be counted on to meaningfully constrain a president who wants to use military force on his own.

哈佛大学法学教授、乔治·W·布什政府时期司法部高级官员杰克·戈德史密斯表示，后人可能会将特朗普单方面发动伊朗战争作为这样一种观念的终结：即可以倚仗法律和行政部门律师去对想要自行使用武力的总统施加有意义的约束。

“By using the military on such a large and dangerous scale with foreseeable U.S. casualties, this operation kills the idea of any effective legal constraint on the president’s use of force,” he said. “It’s been very close to dead for years, I think.”

“通过以如此庞大而危险的规模动用军队，并预见会造成美军伤亡，这次行动扼杀了总统在使用武力方面受到任何有效法律约束的观念，”他说。“而我认为，这种观念多年前就已经非常接近死亡。”

Iran and Escalation

伊朗与局势升级

Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

In 2007, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. argued in a presidential candidate survey that presidents have no legitimate power to bomb another country without congressional authorization, unless the United States is about to be attacked. Senator Barack Obama said the same thing. But executive power can look different from the vantage point of the Oval Office.

2007年，小约瑟夫·R·拜登参议员在一次总统候选人调查问答中表示，除非美国即将遭到攻击，否则总统无权在未经国会授权的情况下轰炸另一个国家。While Mr. Trump’s open indifference to law and norms of self-restraint has pushed presidential war-making powers to a new extreme, he is also extending a path that the country was already on. For generations, presidents in the modern era have steadily eroded constraints on their power to initiate military actions.

虽然特朗普对法律和自我约束规范的公开漠视将总统发动战争的权力推向了新的极端，但他也是在延长一条美国早已踏上的道路。几个世代的现代总统都在稳步削弱对发动军事行动权力的限制。

In 1950, President Harry S. Truman took the country into the Korean War without going to Congress. He pointed to authorization by the new United Nations Security Council, but that did not matter for the domestic law question of who had the rightful power to decide whether the United States would participate.

1950年，哈里·S·杜鲁门总统在未征求国会意见的情况下将国家拖入朝鲜战争。他援引了新成立的联合国安理会的授权，但这对于“谁拥有合法权力决定是否让美国参与”这一国内法问题并无影响。

No president had ever launched such a war effort without seeking congressional permission, but Congress did not impeach him.

此前从未有总统在不寻求国会许可的情况下发动过这样的战争，但国会并未弹劾他。

In 1973, after bipartisan recognition that the Vietnam War had been a disaster, lawmakers sought to regain their constitutional role in deciding whether to go to war. They enacted, over President Richard M. Nixon’s veto, the War Powers Resolution.

1973年，在两党一致认识到越南战争是一场灾难之后，议员们试图重新夺回他们在决定是否开战方面的宪法角色。他们不顾理查德·M·尼克松总统的否决，通过了《战争权力决议》。

The act established mechanisms by which Congress could, in theory, end unauthorized deployments. And it laid out a limited vision of when presidents could deploy troops into hostile situations on their own — essentially, only if the country was under attack.

该法案建立了一些机制，理论上可让国会结束未经授权的军事部署。它还规定了总统可自行将部队投入敌对局势的有限情形——基本上，仅限于在美国遭受攻击时。

For the three largest wars since then — the Persian Gulf War and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — presidents went to Congress for authorization. They also serially stretched the Afghanistan war law, which targeted Al Qaeda, by interpreting it as approval to battle other militant groups with Qaeda links in countries like Syria and Somalia. Congress acquiesced.

自那以后，对于之后的三场最大规模的战争——海湾战争以及阿富汗和伊拉克战争——总统们都去国会寻求了授权。他们还相继将针对“基地”组织的阿富汗战争法进行延伸，称该法允许在叙利亚和索马里等国家与其他有“基地”组织联系的激进组织作战。国会默许了。

The new Iran war appears likely to be the most aggressive and significant military operation undertaken since 1973 without any claim of congressional approval.

新的伊朗战争可能是1973年以来在没有任何国会授权主张的情况下采取的最具侵略性和最重大的军事行动。

It is not clear whether the administration’s internal legal analysis relies on any claim that Iran posed an imminent threat of attack. Neither the White House statement nor a letter Mr. Trump sent to Congress said it did.

目前尚不清楚政府内部的法律分析是否依赖任何关于伊朗构成迫在眉睫的攻击威胁的说法。无论是白宫声明还是特朗普发给国会的信中，都没有这样说。

But in public statements, Mr. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as the national security adviser, have invoked that phrase. Mr. Trump went on to say it would be intolerable to allow Iran time to develop a nuclear weapon and long-range missiles — apparently relying on a very elongated view of what counts as imminent.

但在公开声明中，特朗普和同时担任国家安全顾问的国务卿马可·鲁比奥都使用了这一表述。特朗普接着说，允许伊朗有时间发展核武器和远程导弹将是不可容忍的——这显然依赖于对“迫在眉睫”的含义进行大幅延伸。

Chipping Away

逐步蚕食

Republican and Democratic administrations have interpreted the War Powers Resolution narrowly. Since it was enacted, every president has deployed troops into limited hostile situations that went beyond the act’s narrow parameters, like trying to rescue Americans in places like Cambodia and Iran; peacekeeping missions in places like Lebanon, Somalia and Bosnia; and NATO air wars in Kosovo and Libya.

共和党和民主党政府都对《战争权力决议》作了狭义解释。自该法案颁布以来，每位总统都将部队部署到超出该法案狭窄界定的有限敌对局势中，例如在柬埔寨和伊朗等地试图营救美国人；在黎巴嫩、索马里和波斯尼亚等地的维和任务；以及在科索沃和利比亚的北约空袭。

Blessing such operations as lawful, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has argued that the president has constitutional power to deploy troops into hostile situations in the national interest, so long as the anticipated intensity, scope and duration fall short of “war” in the constitutional sense.

司法部法律顾问办公室宣称这些行动合法，辩称总统拥有宪法赋予的权力，可将部队部署到符合美国国家利益的敌对局势中，只要预期的强度、范围和持续时间未达到宪法意义上的“战争”程度。

Executive branch lawyers have produced a series of memos blessing unilateral deployments by pointing to various factors that they said meant what the president wanted to do met that standard. But the pattern over time has been that when subsequent proposed deployments lack such factors, the Office of Legal Counsel has found ways to approve them, too.

行政部门律师搬出了一系列备忘录，通过指出他们认为总统意图采取的行动符合该标准的各种因素，来认可单方面的军事部署。但随着时间的推移，这种模式已演变为：当后续的拟议部署缺乏这些因素时，法律顾问办公室也会找到批准它们的方法。

Professor Goldsmith said that while law has been revealed as toothless as an internal executive branch check on unilateral presidential war-making, there was still politics.

戈德史密斯表示，虽然法律已被证明作为一种行政部门内部的制衡手段，对总统单方面发动战争毫无约束力，但还有政治这条路可走。

“Courts can’t do anything, there is clearly zero internal check and that literally means that all that is left is Congress and the people,” he said. “That might amount to nothing, but it’s literally all that is conceivably left.”

“法院无能为力，而内部制衡显然不存在，这实际上意味着剩下的只有国会和人民，”他说。“也许最终都是徒劳，但这确实是理论上仅存的东西了。”

Despite long being treated as a pariah by the West and isolated by U.S. sanctions, Iran’s revolutionary Islamic government maintained diplomatic, commercial and military ties with a range of countries.

尽管伊朗伊斯兰革命政府长期被西方视为弃儿，并在美国制裁下陷入孤立，它仍与多个国家保持着外交、经贸和军事联系。

Turkey and India engaged with it on trade and security. China looked to it for cheap oil. North Korea, Venezuela and Russia considered it an ally in their struggle against the West and conspired with it to develop military technology and subvert sanctions.

土耳其与印度在贸易和安全领域同伊朗往来；中国从伊朗获取廉价石油；朝鲜、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯将伊朗视为对抗西方的盟友，并与其合谋开发军事技术，规避制裁。

Now that Iran finds itself under attack by the United States and Israel, those friends, neighbors and partners have little more than words to offer the Islamic Republic. They, in turn, could become targets. Turkey on Wednesday said NATO shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran that was headed for Turkish airspace. On Thursday, Iran denied it had targeted Turkey.

如今，伊朗遭到美国和以色列袭击，这些友邦、邻国与伙伴能带给伊朗伊斯兰共和国的，却只有口头上的支持。而它们自身反而可能成为袭击目标。土耳其周三称，北约击落了一枚从伊朗发射、飞向土耳其领空的弹道导弹。周四，伊朗否认曾以土耳其为目标。

Without true allies, it is a lonely war for Iran.

没有真正的盟友，伊朗正陷入孤军奋战。

That is a product, experts say, of Iran’s foreign policy, which has shied away from commitments to other countries while investing in militias that share its religiously-fueled hatred of the United States and Israel.

专家表示，这是伊朗外交政策的必然结果：它不愿向他国作出承诺，同时大力扶持那些出于宗教狂热仇视美国和以色列的民兵组织。

Those militias can’t help Iran now. The most formidable of them, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, have been ground down by wars with Israel. The Houthi militia in Yemen and Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran can target ships in the Red Sea or American forces in Iraq. But such attacks are unlikely to change the course of a war inside Iran.

这些民兵如今已无力帮助伊朗。其中实力最强的黎巴嫩真主党与加沙哈马斯已在与以色列的战争中元气大伤。也门胡塞武装与伊朗支持的伊拉克武装可以袭击红海船只或驻伊拉克美军，但此类行动难以改变伊朗本土战事的走向。

抗议者挥舞真主党与伊朗国旗，抗议美以部队刺杀伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊。

Nor have Iran’s relationships with other states resulted in concrete support, even from those united by their animosity toward what they consider Western imperialism.

伊朗与其他国家的关系也没有转化为实质性支持，即便那些因共同敌视所谓西方帝国主义而团结的国家亦是如此。

“It is a rude wake-up call for those who believed that there was an emergent anti-West axis,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank.

“对那些相信一个新兴反西方轴心正在形成的人来说，这是刺耳的警钟，”土耳其前外交官、伊斯坦布尔智库Edam主管锡南·乌尔根表示。

Referring to Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, he said, “Now you see that it means nothing for one of those four countries when they are under siege by the West.”

谈及俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和朝鲜，他说：“现在你会发现，当这四个国家中的一个遭到西方围攻时，这毫无意义。”

Most countries that maintain ties with Iran do so out of strategic, geographic or economic necessity, giving them little reason to sacrifice when Iran comes under fire, experts said.

专家称，大多数与伊朗保持关系的国家都是出于战略、地理或经济上的需要，几乎没有理由在伊朗遭受打击时为其牺牲。

Now, those relationships may not protect them.

而现在，这些关系甚至未必能保护它们自身。

Turkey’s defense ministry did not specify the target of the ballistic missile from Iran that NATO defenses shot down on Wednesday. But a senior U.S. military official and a Western official said it was aimed at Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, which houses a U.S. Air Force contingent and other NATO forces. Debris from the munitions that brought the missile down fell about 30 miles from the base. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to journalists.

土耳其国防部并未说明周三被北约防空系统击落的伊朗弹道导弹的攻击目标。但一名美军高级官员和一名西方官员表示，导弹瞄准的是土耳其南部的因吉尔利克空军基地，这里驻扎着美国空军分遣队及其他北约部队。拦截导弹产生的残骸落在距基地约48公里处。这些官员因未获授权向媒体发言而要求匿名。

The Iranian military denied in a statement on Thursday that it had fired a missile at Turkey, saying it respected Turkey’s sovereignty.

伊朗军方周四发表声明否认向土耳其发射导弹，称尊重土耳其主权。

Turkey shares a 300-mile border with Iran, has longstanding standing diplomatic and trade ties and also tried to fend off the war.

土耳其与伊朗拥有约480公里的共同边境，两国有着长期的外交与贸易联系，土耳其也曾努力避免卷入战争。

Mr. Ulgen, the former diplomat, characterized Turkey’s approach to Iran as rooted in history and driven by proximity and “grudging respect.”

前外交官乌尔根称，土耳其对伊朗的态度植根于历史，由地缘邻近性驱动，并带着“勉强的尊重”。

“We are not friends with Iran, we don’t agree on much, but we have to coexist in this geographical space,” he said.

“我们和伊朗不是朋友，在很多问题上立场不一，但我们必须在这片地理空间中共存，”他说。

Despite his warm ties with President Trump, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey called the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran a “clear violation of international law.” On Monday, he said on social media that he was “saddened” by the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

尽管土耳其总统埃尔多安与特朗普总统关系融洽，他仍称美以对伊朗的袭击“明显违反国际法”。周一，他在社交媒体上表示，对伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊身亡“深感悲痛”。

2024年，土耳其东部凡省，土耳其士兵沿着土耳其与伊朗边境墙巡逻。

Turkish officials are working to stop the war, not because they love Iran’s leaders but because they fear that instability in Iran could spill into Turkey, as happened during past conflicts in Iraq and Syria, which also border Turkey.

土耳其官员正努力阻止战争，并非因为他们喜爱伊朗领导层，而是担心伊朗的不稳定会外溢至土耳其——就像与土耳其接壤的伊拉克和叙利亚发生冲突时那样。

The fall of the government in Tehran could be even worse, Mr. Ulgen said.

乌尔根说，德黑兰政权倒台的后果可能更糟。

“The type of instability that regime change could create could be an order of magnitude bigger than what we saw in Syria and Iraq,” he said.

“政权更迭可能引发的动荡规模可能比我们在叙利亚和伊拉克看到的还要高出一个量级，”他说。

India, too, engaged with Iran as an important player in its region and to seek economic advantages, according to Kabir Taneja, the executive director of the Dubai-based Observer Research Foundation Middle East.

总部位于迪拜的中东观察者研究基金会执行主管卡比尔·塔内贾表示，印度同样将伊朗视为地区重要力量，并谋求经济利益。

“There was definitely no overlap as far as worldview is concerned,” he said. “It was always a very transactional relationship, but a functional and a useful one as far as New Delhi was concerned.”

“两国在世界观上绝对没有共同点，”他说。“这始终是一种非常功利的关系，但在新德里看来，它实用且有利。”

India exports rice, produce and pharmaceuticals to Iran and invested heavily in the Chabahar Port on Iran’s southern coast to give itself an export pathway to Central Asia that circumvented Pakistan, its top rival.

印度向伊朗出口大米、农产品和药品，并在伊朗南部海岸的恰巴哈尔港投入巨资，为自己开辟一条绕过主要对手巴基斯坦的中亚出口通道。

特朗普于2025年在白宫会见土耳其总统埃尔多安。

Ties with Iran did not stop India from becoming Israel’s largest arms customer, with Indian purchases making up 34 percent of Israel’s total sales between 2020 and 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

与伊朗的关系并未阻止印度成为以色列最大的军火买家。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据显示，2020至2024年，印度采购量占以色列军火总出口的34%。

Visiting Israel just days before the war, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India addressed the Israeli Knesset, received a parliamentary honor and signed trade deals with his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu.

战争爆发前几天，印度总理莫迪还在访问以色列，在以色列议会发表演讲、接受议会荣誉，并与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡签署贸易协议。

India’s balancing act between Israel, Iran and other countries meant it would steer clear of the war in Iran, Mr. Taneja said.

塔内贾表示，印度在以色列、伊朗及其他国家间的平衡策略意味着它会置身于伊朗战争之外。

“Indian foreign policy is clear in that matter, that it does not enter into other people’s business,” he said.

“印度在这一问题上的外交政策很明确：不干涉他国内政，”他说。

Other countries that have relationships with Iran and also host the U.S. military have found themselves targets as Iran strikes back.

其他与伊朗保持关系、同时又驻扎美军的国家也因伊朗的报复而成为目标。

Iran has fired drones and missiles at Qatar, with which it shares an offshore gas field; the United Arab Emirates, a major trade partner; and Oman, a key mediator in talks with the United States that sought to prevent the war.

伊朗已向卡塔尔、阿联酋和阿曼发射无人机和导弹。卡塔尔与伊朗共享海上天然气田，阿联酋是伊朗的主要贸易伙伴，阿曼则是在防止战争的美伊谈判中担任关键调解人的国家。

Iran has received little support from partner countries that share its hostility to the West.

伊朗几乎没有从那些同样敌视西方的伙伴国家获得实质支持。

North Korea condemned the war but has done little else, and Venezuela’s posture has changed since the United States ousted President Nicolás Maduro in January.

朝鲜谴责了战争，但未采取其他行动；而委内瑞拉自今年1月美国推翻该国总统马杜罗后，立场已发生转变。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡与印度总理莫迪在耶路撒冷会晤，此时距离伊朗战争爆发仅有数日。

China remains Iran’s largest trading partner, mostly because it buys more than three-quarters of Iran’s oil, which it gets at a significant discount because of U.S. sanctions.

中国仍是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，主要原因是中国购买了伊朗逾四分之三的石油——由于美国制裁影响，中国能以大幅折扣获得这些石油。

China has called for restraint, criticized the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei as “unacceptable” and appointed an envoy to mediate. It is unlikely to directly challenge the United States, analysts said, so as not to upset a fragile détente before Mr. Trump’s expected visit to China in April.

中方呼吁保持克制，批评哈梅内伊遇袭身亡“不可接受”，并任命特使斡旋。分析人士称，中国不太可能直接挑战美国，以免破坏4月特朗普访华前本就脆弱的缓和局面。

Russia has been Iran’s closest state ally in pushing back against the West for more than a decade.

十多年来，俄罗斯一直是伊朗对抗西方最亲密的国家盟友。

“You have this growing alignment and grievance over the global order and the U.S. alliance system,” said Hanna Notte, the Eurasia program director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

“在全球秩序和美国同盟体系问题上，它们的立场日益趋同，不满情绪也日益一致，”詹姆斯·马丁不扩散研究中心欧亚项目主任汉娜·诺特表示。

Military cooperation between Russia and Iran grew during the conflict in Syria, where both countries propped up President Bashar al-Assad before he was ousted in December 2024.

俄伊军事合作在叙利亚冲突期间不断加深，两国曾共同扶持阿萨德总统，直至他在2024年12月被推翻。

美国和以色列空袭后，烟雾升腾于德黑兰上空。

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine further solidified the relationship because Russia needed Iranian drone technology, which it deployed against Ukraine.

俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰进一步巩固了两国关系，因为俄方需要伊朗的无人机技术，并将其用于对乌作战。

In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a major cooperation treaty that deepened their defense ties but did not include a requirement to come to each other’s defense in case of a military attack.

2025年1月，俄伊签署重大合作条约，深化防务关系，但并未约定在遭受军事攻击时必须相互保卫。

Russia has given Iran some military equipment but its support has been limited, Ms. Notte said, in part because Russia did not want to complicate its relationship with Israel.

诺特表示，俄罗斯向伊朗提供了部分军事装备，但支持力度有限，部分原因是俄罗斯不想令本国同以色列的关系复杂化。

Now that Iran is at war, Russia will likely stick to its policy of avoiding direct military conflict with Israel and the United States in the Middle East, Ms. Notte said.

诺特称，如今伊朗陷入战争，俄罗斯很可能继续奉行避免在中东与以色列和美国发生直接军事冲突的政策。

That will likely confine Russia’s contribution to standing up for Iran at the United Nations and in other international forums.

这意味着俄罗斯的贡献很可能仅限于在联合国及其他国际论坛上为伊朗发声。

“The Russians have defended the Iranians quite aggressively,” Ms. Notte said of Russia’s diplomacy. “But that does not do much for Iran in this situation.”

“俄罗斯人在外交上相当积极地为伊朗辩护，”诺特在谈及俄外交时说。“但在当前局势下，这对伊朗帮助不大。”

Stocks across most of Asia rallied on Thursday, a day after tumbling over fears around the region’s heavy reliance on imported oil and gas.

亚洲大多数地区的股市周四出现反弹。此前一天，由于投资者担心该地区对进口石油和天然气的高度依赖，市场曾大幅下跌。

The turnaround illustrates the hair-trigger reactions of investors around the world who are trying to assess the immediate and possible long-term effects of the strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel and the repercussions around the Persian Gulf, where much of the world’s oil and gas is produced.

这种反转凸显了全球投资者的高度敏感反应，他们正试图评估美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击所带来的即时影响以及可能产生的长期后果，以及这些行动在波斯湾地区引发的连锁反应——该地区是全球主要的石油和天然气产地。

The swing was particularly stark for South Korea’s Kospi index, which had dropped 12 percent in its worst single-day crash, then turned around to close nearly 10 percent higher on Thursday. At one point on Wednesday the plunge was so rapid that trading was temporarily halted to stem the losses.

韩国综合股价指数的波动尤其明显，该指数曾暴跌12%，创下最大单日跌幅，随后在周四反弹，收盘时上涨近10%。周三盘中，该指数一度下跌过快触发临时停牌，以阻止继续下跌。

Stocks in Taiwan also swung, falling more than 4 percent on Wednesday before jumping nearly 3 percent 24 hours later.

台湾股市也出现波动，周三下跌逾4%，24小时后又反弹了近3%。

The recovery in Asia took the lead from trading on Wednesday in the United States, where stocks opened higher for the first time all week after President Trump suggested that the U.S. Navy may escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Emmanuel Macron of France called for an international coalition to help secure commercial shipping routes.

亚洲市场的回升受到周三美国股市交易走势的带动。在特朗普总统建议美国海军可能在霍尔木兹海峡为船只护航，以及法国总统马克龙呼吁建立一个国际联盟来帮助确保商业航道安全后，美国股市本周首次开盘走高。

Over the past year, intense optimism about artificial intelligence has led investors to pour money into tech stocks in Taiwan and South Korea. The two places make most of the equipment like computer chips and servers that power the world’s A.I. systems. They also depend on imports for virtually all of their energy.

过去一年里，由于对人工智能的极度乐观情绪，投资者大举投资台湾和韩国的科技股。这两个地区生产着全球人工智能系统所需的大部分设备，例如计算机芯片和服务器。但与此同时，它们几乎所有能源都依赖进口。

The stock market seesaw served as a reminder not only of the central role that these two East Asian democracies play in the global economy, but how bullish investors remain about A.I.

股市的起伏不仅让人看到这两个东亚民主政体在全球经济中扮演的核心角色，也让人看到投资者对人工智能依然保持着强烈的看涨情绪。

Jim Fontanelli, a senior analyst at Arete Research, an equity research firm, said the movement in the stocks was “not a reflection of a change in the fundamentals of A.I.”

股票研究公司Arete Research的高级分析师吉姆·丰塔内利表示，股价的波动“并不反映人工智能基本面发生了变化”。

“Questions around A.I. optimism have been a consistent theme for all these stocks over the past few years,” he said. “The conflict has little direct impact on that question.”

“对人工智能乐观情绪的质疑过去几年一直是所有这些股票的一个不变主题，”他说。“这场冲突对这个问题没什么直接影响。”

In February, the share prices of many of East Asia’s biggest companies climbed to record highs, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which makes chips for Apple and Nvidia, as well as Samsung and SK Hynix, which manufacture memory chips for Nvidia’s sought-after A.I. servers. All three closed lower on Wednesday and then recovered.

今年2月，东亚许多大型公司的股价曾创下历史新高，包括为苹果和英伟达生产芯片的台积电，以及为英伟达热门人工智能服务器生产存储芯片的三星电子和SK海力士。周三，这三家公司股价都收跌，之后又出现反弹。

“The conflict in the Middle East probably does not directly impact the fundamental demand for companies like TSMC and Samsung,” said Vey-Sern Ling, an equities adviser based in Singapore at the bank Union Bancaire Privé. “Heavy investment in A.I. infrastructure could continue for years even with the war.”

“中东冲突可能不会直接影响台积电和三星等公司的基本面需求，”瑞士瑞联银行驻新加坡的股票顾问凌炜森表示。“即便战争爆发，对人工智能基础设施的大规模投资仍可能持续多年。”

Yet, a prolonged and ever-wider conflict in the Middle East that interrupts the supply of energy to Asia could damage the electricity-intensive production of chips.

但如果中东冲突旷日持久，不断扩大，亚洲能源供应受阻，就可能损害芯片生产这种高度依赖电力的产业。

Since they are so dependent on imported oil and gas, Asia’s semiconductor manufacturing hubs would bear the brunt of the shock from any energy disruptions, said Randy Yang, an analyst at TrendForce, a market research firm in Taipei. The build-out of A.I. infrastructure in the United States faces a lower risk from the Persian Gulf conflict, since America can rely on its own sources of energy, Mr. Yang said.

台北市场研究公司集邦科技分析师兰迪·杨（音）表示，由于严重依赖进口石油和天然气，一旦能源供应出现中断，亚洲的半导体制造中心将首当其冲受到冲击。兰迪·杨表示，美国的人工智能基础设施建设面临的波斯湾冲突风险较低，因为美国可以依赖自己的能源。

Every day, around 80 oil and gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that carries a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas.

通常，每天有约80艘油气运输船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。这条位于伊朗南海岸的狭窄水道承载了全球五分之一的石油和相当一部分天然气的运输。

On Monday, just two oil and gas tankers appear to have crossed the strait, according to a New York Times analysis of shipping activity from Kpler, an industry data firm. On Tuesday, one tanker passed through.

通过分析行业数据公司Kpler的航运活动数据，《纽约时报》发现，周一似乎仅有两艘油气运输船只穿过该海峡，周二仅有一艘油轮通过。

“It’s a de facto closure,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm. “You’ve got a significant number of vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through.”

休斯顿金融服务公司Pickering Energy Partners的首席投资官丹·皮克林表示：“这实际上等同于封锁。海峡两侧都有大量船只滞留，但没人愿意冒险通过。”

Tankers have been staying away from Hormuz since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday. A prolonged conflict could ripple broadly across the global economy, threatening the energy supplies of countries halfway around the world and stoking inflation.

自上周六美以对伊朗发动袭击以来，油轮一直远离霍尔木兹海峡。长期冲突可能引发全球经济广泛的连锁反应，威胁到半个地球之外国家的能源供应，并推高通胀。

International oil prices have climbed 12 percent since the fighting began, trading Tuesday around $81 a barrel, and natural gas prices have surged in Europe and in Asia.

自战斗开始以来，国际油价已上涨12%，周二交易价格在每桶81美元左右；同时，欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格也大幅飙升。

A senior Iranian military official threatened this week to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels in the region have already come under attack. Several oil and gas facilities have also been struck or affected by nearby shelling, though the damage did not initially appear to be catastrophic.

一名伊朗将领本周威胁要将所有经过霍尔木兹海峡的船只“付之一炬”。该地区已经有船只遭到袭击。数个石油和天然气设施也遭到炮击或受到影响，尽管损失初步看来不算太严重。

受损船只和能源设施所在位置。注：截至北京时间周三凌晨3点的损失情况。来源：Kpler、科威特国家石油公司、沙特能源部、Planet Labs、卡塔尔能源公司、英国海上贸易行动办公室及Vanguard Tech。

A fire broke out Tuesday at a major energy hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, from the falling debris of a downed drone, the authorities said. On Monday, Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas, or fuel that has been cooled so that it can be transported on ships, after attacks on its facilities.

阿联酋当局表示，由于一架被击落无人机的碎片坠落，阿联酋富查伊拉的一个主要能源枢纽周二发生火灾。周一，卡塔尔在设施遭到袭击后停止了液化天然气的生产。液化天然气是一种经过冷却处理、便于船舶运输的燃料。

据沙特能源部称，周一两架伊朗无人机被拦截后碎片坠落，导致沙特拉斯坦努拉炼油厂的设施起火。

The sharp reduction in tanker traffic is reducing the supply of oil and gas to world markets, pushing up prices for both commodities. And the longer that ships stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, the less oil and gas get out to the world, which could raise prices even more.

运输流量锐减正在减少世界市场的油气供应，推高了这两种大宗商品的价格。船只远离霍尔木兹海峡的时间越长，运往全球的油气就越少，这可能会进一步推高价格。

Shipping companies have paused their tankers to protect their crew and cargo, and because insurance companies are charging significantly more to cover vessels in the conflict area.

航运公司已暂停运输船只的航行，以保护船员和货物，部分原因也是保险公司对冲突地区的船舶承保费用显著增加。

On Tuesday, President Trump said that “if necessary,” the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the strait. He also said a U.S. government agency would begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines in the area.

周二，特朗普总统表示，“如果有必要，”美国海军将开始为通过海峡的运输船只护航。他还表示，一家美国政府机构将开始向该地区的航运公司提供“政治风险保险”。

In addition to tankers, other large vessels regularly go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. In normal conditions, nearly 160 make the trip each day.

除油气外，汽车运输船和集装箱船等其他大型船只也会频繁通过该海峡。在正常情况下，每天约有160艘此类船只往返。

Some ships in the region turn off the devices that broadcast their positions, while others transmit false locations — making it hard to give a full picture of the traffic in the strait.

该地区的一些船只会关闭广播其位置的设备，有一些会发送虚假位置，这使得人们很难全面掌握海峡内的交通状况。

The Shiva is a small oil tanker that has repeatedly faked its location, according to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks global oil shipments. It is suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, according to Kpler. The Shiva was one of the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday.

根据追踪全球石油运输的TankerTrackers.com，湿婆号是一艘反复伪造位置的小型油轮。Kpler公司怀疑该船运载的是受制裁的伊朗石油。它是周一穿过海峡的两艘油轮之一。

The oil and gas that typically move through the strait come from big producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and United Arab Emirates, and are exported around the world.

通常流经该海峡的石油和天然气来自沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、伊朗和阿联酋等主要产油国，并出口到世界各地。

穿越海峡的油气运输船只的航线。注：包括自1月1日起所有油轮和天然气运输船。来源：Kpler。

In 2024, more than 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

根据美国能源信息署的数据，2024年通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油和天然气中，有80%以上运往了亚洲，其中中国、印度、日本和韩国是最大的进口国。

Countries have energy stockpiles that could last them into the coming months, but a continued shutdown of the strait could damage their economies.

各国虽拥有可维持数月的能源储备，但海峡持续关闭可能会损害其经济。

Several big disruptions have roiled supply chains in recent years, but the tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an outsize impact.

近年来，数次重大动荡扰乱了供应链，但霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输停摆可能会产生格外巨大的影响。

From its strikes on Iran to its global tariffs, the United States has wielded military force and economic threats to impose its will. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is preparing for this era of perilous rivalry by pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies, while also expanding the country’s armed forces.

从对伊朗的袭击到全球关税政策，美国正动用军事力量和经济威胁来强加其意志。中国最高领导人习近平正通过向人工智能、量子计算及其他战略技术领域倾注资源，同时扩张武装力量，为这个充满险恶竞争的时代做准备。

Mr. Xi’s ambitious goals for the next five years of China’s technological ascent were expected to be endorsed at a weeklong meeting of the national legislature in Beijing that started on Thursday. The approach reflects Mr. Xi’s view that competition with the United States will ultimately be decided by technological innovation that drives economic, military and cultural strength.

周四在北京开幕的为期一周的全国立法会议预计将批准习近平关于未来五年中国技术崛起的宏大目标。这一方略反映了习近平的观点：推动经济、军事和文化实力的技术创新将决定与美国的这场竞争的胜负。

The plan, according to an outline of it announced in October, will call for fostering new engines of economic growth in emerging industries like quantum computing, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and 6G.

根据去年10月公布的计划大纲，该计划将要求在量子计算、生物制造、氢能与核聚变能源、脑机接口、具身智能以及6G等新兴产业中培育新的经济增长引擎。

As China’s relationship with the United States has deteriorated, threatening Beijing’s access to U.S. technology, leaders in Beijing see this race as ever more urgent. In a speech in October about the outlines of the five-year plan, Mr. Xi called on the country to “seize this window of opportunity to consolidate and expand our advantages, break through bottlenecks and constraints, and address weaknesses and shortcomings.”

随着中美关系恶化并威胁到北京获取美国技术的渠道，北京高层认为这场竞赛愈发紧迫。在10月关于五年规划大纲的讲话中，习近平号召全国“抓住这个时间窗口，巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项”。

华盛顿的出口管制促使北京愈发积极推动半导体完全国产化。

Even as Mr. Xi is preparing to host President Trump in early April to try to extend a trade truce, he is doubling down on a strategy of ensuring that China’s economy and military are not vulnerable to being cut off by the West from advanced semiconductors and other critical technologies.

尽管准备在4月初接待特朗普总统来访，试图延长贸易休战协议，习近平同时也在加倍强化其战略，以确保在面临西方切断先进半导体和其他关键技术供应时中国经济和军事不会陷入不利。

“Chinese leaders have a view that Washington will continue trying to constrain China’s technological development,” said Gerard DiPippo, an associate director of the China Research Center at RAND, a research organization. “That belief underpins the urgency behind self-reliance efforts. Even if there is temporary stabilization, the underlying dynamic remains structurally competitive.”

“中国领导人认为华盛顿将继续试图遏制中国的技术发展，”研究机构兰德公司中国研究中心副主任杰拉德·迪皮波表示。“这一判断支撑着自力更生努力背后的紧迫感。即使出现了暂时的稳定，也仍然保持着结构性的竞争态势。”

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and America’s attack on Venezuela in January — which led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and takeover of that country’s oil industry — may have deepened Chinese leaders’ wariness of Mr. Trump, said Daniel R. Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

曾任东亚和太平洋事务助理国务卿的丹尼尔·拉塞尔指出，美以目前对伊朗的持续袭击以及1月美国对委内瑞拉的攻击可能加深了中国领导人对特朗普的警惕。对委内瑞拉的攻击导致该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕，其石油工业被接管。

“Donald Trump may think he is demonstrating military strength that will intimidate Beijing,” said Mr. Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But his actions in Venezuela and Iran are more likely to drive Beijing’s determination to harden its capacity to resist the U.S. and to tighten its alignment with Russia.”

“唐纳德·特朗普可能认为他正在展示能威慑北京的军事实力，”现为亚洲协会政策研究所卓越研究员的拉塞尔表示。“但他对委内瑞拉和伊朗的行动更可能促使北京下定决心，强化其抵抗美国的能力，并加强与俄罗斯的协作。”

To fortify China against perceived threats, Mr. Xi is also committed to a continued buildup of the People’s Liberation Army forces, even after eviscerating its high command with purges that have removed his top generals and left key leadership posts vacant.

为了强化中国防御潜在威胁的能力，习近平还致力于持续建设中国人民解放军，尽管他刚刚对军队高层进行了大清洗，撤换多名高级将领，导致关键领导职位出现空缺。

周四参加开幕会的军队代表。

At the legislative meeting, the government said it would increase its military spending by 7 percent this year relative to last year. That rise would bring China’s annual spending on its armed forces to about $277 billion, which is about one third of the Trump administration’s proposed military spending for the 2026 fiscal year.

在立法会议上，政府表示今年的军费开支将比去年增长7%。这一增长将使中国每年的军费开支达到约1.91万亿元，约为特朗普政府提议的2026财年军事预算的三分之一。

But Mr. Xi has indicated that long-term victory depends less on raw spending and more on the country’s ability to dominate industries of the future.

但习近平已表明，长期的胜利更多要取决于国家主导未来产业的能力，而不是单纯的资金投入量。

In areas like A.I., robotics, quantum computing and 6G, “I think there’s a strong sense among China’s policymakers that they can take the lead over the U.S.,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution focusing on China’s industrial policies.

布鲁金斯学会专注于中国产业政策的研究员陈凯欣(Kyle Chan)表示，在人工智能、机器人、量子计算和6G等领域，“我认为中国决策者深信他们可以领先于美国。”

Although China’s economy, and especially its tech sector, is now heavily commercial, the goals laid down in the plan are like “huge flashing lights that orient central bureaucrats, local officials, domestic companies, and multinationals on the country’s priorities for the next five years,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and the author of a new study of China’s drive for technological breakthroughs.

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心研究员、一份关于中国技术突破的新研究报告的作者甘思德(Scott Kennedy)表示，尽管中国经济（尤其是科技部门）目前高度商业化，但计划中设定的目标就像“巨大的闪光信号灯，为中央官僚、地方官员、国内公司和跨国公司指明了未来五年的国家优先事项”。

“Policymakers will need to develop more specific policies to achieve these goals, and businesses will need to align their strategies, at least in name, toward these aims,” Mr. Kennedy wrote in emailed comments.

甘思德在电子邮件评论中写道：“决策者将需要制定更具体的政策来实现这些目标，企业则需要调整其战略，至少在名义上要向这些目标靠拢。”

The plan calls for investment to also flow into enhancing China’s advanced industries, such as industrial robots and pharmaceuticals. And while Mr. Xi sets the national vision, the execution often falls to local officials across the country, creating a surge in production that is likely to spill over China’s borders, further straining relations with trading partners.

该计划还要求资金流向提升中国的先进工业，如工业机器人和制药业。虽然习近平设定了国家愿景，但执行往往由全国各地的官员落实，由此引发的生产激增，极有可能溢出中国边境，进一步加剧与贸易伙伴的关系紧张。

“To the extent that industrial policies are implemented with little coordination across local levels, overcapacity will continue to be a feature,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies Chinese economic strategy. “This means Chinese producers will continue to find buyers around the world. The tactics are a combination of export and shifting production capacity overseas.”

“由于产业政策在实施过程中缺乏跨区域的协调，产能过剩将继续作为一种有意而为的特性存在，”外交关系协会研究中国经济战略的高级研究员刘宗媛(Zongyuan Zoe Liu)表示。“这意味着中国生产商将继续在世界范围内寻找买家。其策略是出口与向海外转移产能相结合。”

There is chaos in the Middle East and global markets have been oscillating wildly. But rather than panic about what the Iran war may be doing to your investments, try to forget about all of it.

中东局势陷入混乱，全球市场也在剧烈波动。但是，与其因伊朗战争可能对你的投资产生的影响而惶惶不安，不如试着把这一切抛诸脑后。

That, in a nutshell, is the standard long-term investing playbook for times of crisis.

简而言之，这正是危机时期长期投资的标准策略。

It’s not the most exciting approach. You may be able to profit if you behave opportunistically. Buy and sell energy and military stocks — or gold, or U.S. Treasuries, or anything else that may be the flavor of the moment — and do so at just the right time. But speculating in the markets and consistently coming out ahead is hard to do.

这并不是最刺激的做法。如果你采取机会主义的操作，也许能够获利。低买高卖能源股、军工股，或者黄金、美国国债，以及任何当下炙手可热的资产，时机要拿捏得恰到好处。但在市场上投机并且始终保持盈利是一件很难做到的事情。

Academic wisdom suggests simply aiming for an average market return over the long haul is a sensible approach — and, probably, the best strategy for most people. So if you already have set up your portfolio appropriately, using cheap, diversified index funds to hold the entire stock and bond markets in a reasonable proportion, there is no reason to make abrupt changes — and plenty of reasons to avoid acting hastily.

学术界的普遍观点认为，做长线投资、追求市场平均回报率是一种明智的做法——而且对多数人来说，这可能也是最好的策略。因此，如果你已经对自己的投资进行了合理配置，通过费用低廉、多样化的指数基金，以合理的比例持有了整个股票和债券市场，那么就没有理由做出突然的调整——反而有很多理由避免仓促行动。

History shows that doing nothing has generally been a fine strategy when the markets act up, whether the immediate cause of the trouble has been military conflicts, natural disasters, nuclear power plant accidents, political shocks, or nearly any other abrupt, unexpected event.

历史表明，当市场出现动荡时，什么都不做往往是一种不错的策略，无论眼前的动荡是由军事冲突、自然灾害、核电站事故、政治冲击，还是几乎任何其他突发事件所引发。

Long-term stock market returns have been fabulous, and high-quality bonds have usually — but not always — buffered portfolios in times of trouble. Avoiding adjustments in midcourse is frequently the best policy.

股市的长期回报一直非常可观，高质量的债券在市场困难时期也经常（尽管并不总是）起到缓冲作用。避免中途调整往往是最佳策略。

And Yet

然而

The logic here is sound, but I readily admit that it’s not foolproof. Economic recessions are bad for nearly everyone, and certainly for the markets, and if the crisis in the Persian Gulf sets off a recession, it could conceivably take a long time for a full recovery.

上述逻辑是合理的，但我也得承认，它并非万无一失。经济衰退对几乎所有人都不是好事，对市场更是如此，如果波斯湾的危机引发衰退，可以想见，经济要完全复苏可能需要很长时间。

Even more potentially troubling, the buy-and-hold, do-nothing approach is based on the assumption that the future will resemble the past, and that what is happening in the gulf will not result in an irrecoverable disaster for the entire region and the world.

更深的隐患在于，“买入并持有、以不变应万变”的策略，是基于这样一种假设：未来将与过去相似，海湾正在发生的事情不会给整个地区和世界带来不可挽回的灾难。

As I’ve pointed out repeatedly, the Trump administration is ignoring previous norms and is trying to change the world. In this case, the bombing of Iran and the killing of many of its top leaders have been followed by declarations from U.S. and Israeli leaders that they will continue the assault until they demolish the country’s capacity to fight back. Iranian reprisals in the gulf have already begun. They may not end there. President Trump’s decisions could have unintended consequences for the United States.

正如我反复指出的，特朗普政府正在无视以往的规范，并且正试图改变世界。此番，对伊朗的轰炸及其多名最高层领导人身亡后，美国和以色列领导人相继宣称，他们将持续发动攻击，直到彻底摧毁伊朗的还击能力为止。伊朗在海湾地区的报复行动已经开始，而且未必会止步于此。特朗普的决策可能给美国带来意想不到的后果。

At the same time, the U.S. stock market may be particularly vulnerable to setbacks because it has become highly concentrated and highly priced, largely because of investor enthusiasm about artificial intelligence.

与此同时，由于在相当程度上源于投资者对人工智能的热情，美国股市变得高度集中，价位也很高，因此可能特别容易受到回调冲击。

It’s possible that some prior assumptions about investing may not necessarily hold in this case. While I think it makes sense to follow the same basic playbook, the risks we are facing may be greater than many people understand or that market prices reflect. Try to make sure that you have put aside enough safe money to take account of these potential dangers.

在这种情况下，以往关于投资的一些假设未必还能完全成立。尽管我认为遵循同一套基本的应对策略仍然有其道理，但我们所面对的风险可能比很多人理解的或市场价格所反映出来的要更大。尽量确保你已经预留了足够的安全资金，以应对这些潜在的危险。

The Case for Doing Nothing

以不变应万变

If you have been following markets and world politics for a while, you will know that the U.S. stock market has trended upward, despite periodic setbacks, for the last century. That trend has sometimes been interrupted by military conflicts, but it has never been entirely broken. Riding the stock market upward — and diversifying in other markets, as well — has proved to be successful. Running scared has been a mistake.

如果你长期关注市场和世界政治，就会知道，尽管期间经历过多次波折，美国股市在过去一个世纪里总体上一直呈上升趋势。这一趋势有时会因军事冲突而中断，但从未被彻底打破。顺着股市的长期上升趋势进行投资——同时在其他市场进行适度分散——事实证明是成功的做法；因恐慌而仓促撤离，反而往往是错误。

Jeffrey Yale Rubin, the president of Birinyi Associates, an independent stock market research and investing firm in Westport, Conn., pointed out that truth in a succinct report for clients, which he expanded at my request.

康涅狄格州韦斯特波特的独立股市研究和投资公司Birinyi Associates总裁杰弗里·耶鲁·鲁宾在一份给客户的简明报告中阐述了这一事实，并在我的请求下作了进一步说明。

Mr. Rubin examined the stock and oil market response to all of the “past U.S. attacks lasting more than one day,” starting with “Operation Desert Storm,” the U.S.-led war to drive the Iraqi forces of Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait. That war began in mid-January 1991. It was short and, by most contemporary accounts, resoundingly successful (though the U.S. decision to leave Mr. Hussein in power was later sharply critiqued).

鲁宾研究了所有“持续时间超过一天的美国军事打击”开始后的股市和油市反应，从“沙漠风暴行动”开始——那场由美国领导、将萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克军队逐出科威特的战争。它始于1991年1月中旬。战争持续时间不长，而且根据当时多数人的说法，取得了巨大成功（尽管美国让萨达姆继续掌权的决定后来受到尖锐批评）。

There were seven more U.S. military campaigns of more than one day’s duration from then until the current Iran war. And they ranged geographically and in intensity and duration, including conflicts in Bosnia, Iraq, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.

从那以后直到当前的伊朗战争，美国又发动了七场持续超过一天的军事行动。这些行动在地理范围、强度和持续时间上各不相同，涉及波斯尼亚、伊拉克、科索沃、阿富汗、利比亚和叙利亚等地的冲突。

What Mr. Rubin found was striking. One year after the start of these conflicts, the S&P 500, on average, rose 12.5 percent. That compares with an average annualized price return (without dividends) of the S&P 500 of only 9 percent. In an email, Mr. Rubin said, “The bottom line is geopolitical events, similar to the current period, have historically delivered above average” returns one year later.

鲁宾的发现颇为引人注目：在这些冲突开始一年后，标普500指数平均上涨了12.5%。相比之下，标普500指数的平均年化价格回报（不含股息）只有9%。鲁宾在电子邮件中写道：“归根结底，从历史上看，与当前时期类似的地缘政治事件发生一年后，市场回报率高于平均水平。”

In other words, while the stock market has often, though not always, fallen in the weeks after the start of a U.S. conflict or of other geopolitical shocks, shares have usually recovered and rebounded fairly quickly. Keeping your costs low and sticking with the stock market has paid off over the long haul.

换句话说，尽管在美国卷入冲突或出现其他地缘政治冲击后的最初几周里，股市常常——但并非总是——出现下跌，但股价通常会很快复苏和反弹。从长期来看，保持低成本投资并坚持持有股市资产，一直是能够带来回报的策略。

Watch Out for Wild Cards

警惕意外变数

The oil market is another matter. Oil prices have jumped in the current conflict, as they have in many past conflicts. What’s more, one year after the start of military action, Mr. Rubin found, the price of Brent crude, the benchmark for oil outside the United States, has risen, too. The average price gain has been substantial, 27 percent. That’s frequently set off higher inflation. And soaring oil prices led to recessions, especially in earlier periods, like the 1970s and early 1980s

石油市场则是另一回事。与以往的多次冲突一样，本轮冲突中油价已大幅上涨。此外，鲁宾发现，军事行动启动一年后，作为美国以外地区石油基准的布伦特原油价格同样上涨，平均涨幅高达27%。这往往会引发通胀走高。而油价飙升曾多次导致经济衰退，尤其是在20世纪70年代和80年代初等较早时期。

Perhaps anticipating the current troubles in the Middle East, the energy sector of the S&P 500 rose sharply in the weeks leading up to the war. It was up more than 26 percent from the start of the year through March 2, compared with a small loss for the overall S&P 500. Exxon Mobil, the oil giant, was up more than 25 percent through Tuesday. The United States Oil Fund E.T.F., which holds futures contracts in oil, had risen about the same amount. For those holding oil stocks, the war has been a boon.

或许是提前预见到中东当前的乱局，标普500指数中的能源板块在战争爆发前几周大幅上涨。从年初至3月2日，该板块涨幅已超过26%，而同期标普500整体小幅下跌。石油巨头埃克森美孚截至周二涨幅超过25%，持有石油期货合约的美国石油基金ETF涨幅也大致相当。对持有石油股的人来说，这场战争是利好。

If the conflict ends soon without much damage to energy infrastructure or the natural environment, and shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, then the shock of higher energy prices may abate, too. A protracted closure of the strait — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas transit — could have dire consequences.

如果冲突很快结束，能源设施与自然环境未遭受严重破坏，霍尔木兹海峡航运得以恢复，那么能源价格上涨带来的冲击可能会随之缓解。但这条承担全球约五分之一石油与天然气运输的海峡若长期关闭，可能造成严重后果。

Even though the global economy, and the U.S. economy, in particular, are not nearly as dependent on oil as they were 50 years ago, a big and extended oil shock could be painful. Because the United States is now a net exporter of oil and natural gas, the U.S. energy sector could have windfall profits. But rising prices would hurt U.S. consumers and the rest of the economy. It’s not clear how the U.S. stock market would react under those circumstances. European markets are more vulnerable to energy shocks, and have underperformed U.S. markets in the early days of the crisis.

尽管全球经济——尤其是美国经济——对石油的依赖程度已远不及50年前，但一轮大幅且持续的石油冲击仍可能带来痛苦。由于美国如今已成为石油和天然气净出口国，其能源行业可能获得暴利。但物价上涨会损害美国消费者和其他经济领域。在这种情况下，美国股市将作何反应尚不明朗。欧洲市场对能源冲击更为敏感，在危机初期表现已弱于美国市场。

The bond market and the dollar are in play right now. Treasury yields, and the yields of sovereign bonds of many other countries, have fluctuated during the crisis. The prospect of potential energy price increases and of an upward surge in inflation raises questions about the potential for interest rate increases by major central banks this year, especially for the Federal Reserve. The dollar has risen in value, partly because of the expectation that the Iran war will keep U.S. rates higher than might otherwise be the case.

债券市场与美元正受到直接影响。危机期间，美国国债及其他许多国家主权债券的收益率出现波动。能源价格可能上涨以及通胀可能飙升的前景，引发了外界对主要央行今年是否会加息的质疑，尤其是美联储。美元汇率走高，部分原因是市场预期伊朗战争将使美国利率维持在高于原本水平的位置。

With “affordability” a major concern in the United States, higher short- and-long-term interest rates could have far-reaching political effects. President Trump has been sensitive to rising bond yields in the past, and could alter his military plans if the markets and the economy were to come unglued.

由于“可负担能力”是美国的一大核心议题，短期和长期利率的攀升可能产生深远的政治影响。特朗普总统过去对债券收益率上升一直很敏感，如果市场和经济出现动荡，他可能会调整军事计划。

Even if these wild cards were to play out in unfortunate ways, long-term investors with deep pockets might still flourish by ignoring the war and its aftermath. As long as the economy stays strong — or rebounds, if the war leads to economic weakening — corporations are likely to find ways of generating profits, which, ultimately, flow back to investors.

即便这些意外变量朝着不利方向发展，资金雄厚的长期投资者仍有可能无视战争及其后果而获得收益。只要经济保持强劲——或在战争导致经济疲软后出现反弹——企业就有可能找到盈利途径，而利润终将回流至投资者手中。

Ideally, you have already put aside enough money in safe places — like federally insured bank accounts, Treasury bills and high-quality money-market funds — to ride out a storm. Within weeks or months, the markets usually rebound, and people who stay the course end up prospering.

理想情况下，你早已在安全资产中储备了足够资金——例如联邦保险银行账户、美国国库券和优质货币市场基金——从而安然度过风暴。市场通常会在数周或数月内反弹，坚持到底的人最终会获得丰厚回报。

But the world is moving into strange new places and it would be wise to prepare for further departure from past norms. Hold more bonds and cash then usual, if you are worried. Hope for peace and prosperity but prepare for the horrors of war.

但世界正在步入诡谲的新境地，为进一步偏离过往常态做好准备是明智之举。若你心存忧虑，可比平时增持债券和现金。祈盼和平与繁荣，但也要为战争的残酷做好准备。

The husband of a British lawmaker was one of three men arrested on Wednesday by the British police on suspicion of spying for China, deepening concerns about the possible extent of Chinese espionage in Western nations.

三名涉嫌为中国从事间谍活动的男子于周三被英国警方逮捕，其中包括一名英国议员的丈夫，这加剧了外界对中国在西方国家间谍活动可能范围的担忧。

A statement from the Metropolitan Police in London said that three men had been taken into custody on suspicion of “assisting a foreign intelligence service, contrary to Section 3 of the National Security Act.” The release confirmed that the country in question was China.

伦敦警察厅发表声明称，三男子因涉嫌“协助外国情报机构，违反《国家安全法》第三条”而被拘留。声明证实所涉国家为中国。

The statement did not name the men, in keeping with British police practice. But later on Wednesday, Joani Reid, a Labour Party lawmaker, issued a statement referencing a police investigation into her husband, David Taylor, which said that she had “never seen anything to make me suspect my husband has broken any law.”

按照英国警方惯例，声明未透露三名男子的姓名。但周三晚些时候，工党议员乔安妮·里德发表声明提及针对其丈夫戴维·泰勒的警方调查，称自己“从未发现任何迹象让我怀疑丈夫触犯了任何法律”。

Chinese spying has been a sensitive topic in Britain recently, following various accusations that Beijing has engaged in extensive information gathering. At the same time, the Labour government has been trying to improve its economic ties with China after years of frosty relations, and in January approved a contentious Chinese “mega-embassy” in the heart of London.

近期，中国间谍活动在英国成为敏感话题，此前有多起指控称北京进行了大规模情报搜集。与此同时，经历两国关系数年冷淡后，工党正努力改善与中国的经济联系，并于1月批准了颇具争议的中国“超级大使馆”在伦敦市中心落地。

Ms. Reid, who represents East Kilbride and Strathaven in Scotland, said that she had never visited China, had not spoken on matters related to it in Parliament or “as far as I am aware,” met Chinese businesses, diplomats or government employees.

代表苏格兰东基尔布赖德和斯特拉思文选区的里德表示，她从未访问过中国，未在议会就相关议题发言，且“据我所知”，也未曾与中国企业、外交官或政府雇员会面。

“I am not part of my husband’s business activities and neither I nor my children are part of this investigation,” she said in her statement to Britain’s P.A. news agency.

“我不参与丈夫的商业活动，我和我的孩子们都不在此次调查范围内，”她在向英国PA通讯社发送的声明中说。

China’s embassy in London did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

中国驻伦敦大使馆未立即回应置评请求。

周三因涉嫌为中国从事间谍活动而被捕的三人之一是执政党工党议员乔安妮·里德的丈夫。

Mr. Taylor has been registered as a lobbyist since August 2024, according to Ms. Reid’s parliamentary declaration of interests, for his role as director of Earthcott, a public relations, communications and consultancy firm in London.

根据里德的议会利益申报，泰勒自2024年8月起以伦敦公关、传播与咨询公司Earthcott董事身份，注册为游说人士。

Mr. Taylor is also the head of programs at Asia House, a research institute in London that focuses on dialogue among Asia, the Middle East and Europe. He was appointed to the role in September 2024. His profile on the institute’s website states that he is “passionate about advancing Asia House’s mission of providing insights and facilitating engagement between Asia and the rest of the world.”

泰勒还担任伦敦研究机构亚洲之家的项目主管，该机构专注于亚洲、中东与欧洲之间的对话。他于2024年9月获任此职。该机构网站上的个人简介称，他“致力于推动亚洲之家的使命，即提供深入观点并促进亚洲与世界其他地区的交流”。

Mr. Taylor, who has not been charged, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In a statement, Asia House said it could not comment on an active police investigation and had no further information beyond what had been made public.

泰勒尚未被起诉，也未立即回应置评请求。亚洲之家发表声明称，无法就正在进行的警方调查置评，除已公开信息外无法提供更多细节。

The arrests on Wednesday intensified the political debate over China’s activities, with some opposition lawmakers accusing the government of failing to stand up to Beijing.

周三的逮捕事件加剧了关于中国活动的政治辩论，部分反对党议员指责政府未能对北京采取强硬立场。

Last year, prosecutors in England were preparing a case against two men accused of funneling sensitive information to officials in Beijing. But the case fell apart after prosecutors concluded that, at the time of the alleged spying, the government had not deemed China an enemy or a threat to national security. The men, who denied the charges, were acquitted.

去年，英格兰检察官曾准备对两名涉嫌向北京官员泄露敏感信息的男子提起诉讼。但检方认定，在所称的间谍行为发生时，政府尚未将中国列为敌对国家或国家安全威胁，该案随之被撤销。两名否认指控的男子最终被无罪释放。

The collapse of that case became a political headache for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who was repeatedly pressed by opposition leaders in Parliament on why the prosecution did not proceed.

该案被撤成为斯塔默首相的政治难题，反对党领袖在议会中多次质问他检方为何终止起诉。

Earlier this year, Mr. Starmer became the first British prime minister since 2018 to visit Beijing, where he met with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping. The British delegation included a group of business leaders, and the government claimed it had secured billions of pounds worth of export and investment deals.

今年早些时候，斯塔默成为自2018年以来首位访问北京的英国首相，期间与中国国家主席习近平会晤。英国代表团包括一批商界领袖，政府称已达成价值数十亿英镑的出口与投资协议。

The visit followed the hotly contested decision by the British government to give the go-ahead for a new Chinese embassy on a 5.5-acre site in the heart of London. In doing so, the government rejected the objections of critics who said the location and scale of the building would make it easier for China to spy in Britain.

此次访问前，英国政府做出备受争议的决定，批准在伦敦市中心一块占地约2.23公顷的土地上新建中国大使馆。政府此举驳回了批评者的反对意见，后者称该建筑的位置与规模将使中国更易在英国从事间谍活动。

今年早些时候，斯塔默成为2018年以来首位访问北京的英国首相，访华期间他与中国国家主席习近平会面。

Speaking in Parliament on Wednesday, Dan Jarvis, a security minister, said the arrests related to an investigation into “foreign interference targeting U.K. democracy” and added that the government was “deeply concerned by an increasing pattern of covert activity from Chinese state-linked actors.”

安全大臣丹·贾维斯周三在议会发言时表示，此次逮捕与调查“针对英国民主的外国干涉”有关，并称，政府“对与中国国家相关行为体日益增多的秘密活动模式深感担忧”。

He said, “This involves attempts to obtain information on U.K. policymaking and interfere with our sovereign affairs.”

他说：“这包括试图获取英国政策制定信息，以及干涉我国主权事务的企图。”

In reply, Alex Burghart, a senior lawmaker for the opposition Conservative Party, asked for clarification of news reports “that one of those arrested is the spouse of a sitting Labour MP and that another is the spouse of a former Labour MP,” using an abbreviation for a member of Parliament. The identities of the other two men arrested have not been confirmed, nor has the report that one of them was married to a former Labour lawmaker.

反对党保守党资深议员亚历克斯·伯格哈特回应时，要求澄清新闻报道中“被捕者之一是现任工党议员配偶，另一人是前任工党议员配偶”的说法。另外两名被捕男子的身份尚未确认，关于其中一人为前工党议员配偶的报道也未得到证实。

The police statement described the three men as a 39-year-old arrested in London, a 68-year-old arrested in Powys, Wales, and a 43-year-old arrested in Pontyclun, Wales.

警方声明称，三名被捕男子分别为：在伦敦被捕的39岁男子、在威尔士波伊斯郡被捕的68岁男子，以及在威尔士庞蒂克伦被捕的43岁男子。

The police did not offer any details on what led to the arrests or the possible impact of any national security information that had been revealed. But the authorities described the arrests as serious.

警方未透露逮捕行动的具体缘由，也未说明已泄露的国家安全信息可能造成的危害，但当局称此次逮捕事件性质严重。

“Today’s arrests are part of a proactive investigation, and while these are serious matters, we do not believe there to be any imminent or direct threat to the public relating to this,” said Helen Flanagan, the London head of operations for Counter Terrorism Policing, which is leading the investigation.

“今日的逮捕是一项主动调查的一部分，尽管事态严重，但我们认为此事不会对公众造成紧迫或直接的威胁，”主导此次调查的反恐警务部门伦敦行动负责人海伦·弗拉纳根表示。