Stunned by frequent shortages of essential materials from China, automakers in the United States and Europe are quietly trying to reduce or eliminate the need for materials that have become entangled in superpower rivalries.

面对中国关键物料频繁短缺的冲击，欧美车企正悄然采取行动，试图减少甚至摆脱对那些卷入大国博弈的物料的依赖。

The companies are exploring technologies and exotic materials that could replace magnets made with rare-earth metals that are used in dozens of parts in cars and trucks of all kinds. They include components like windshield wiper motors and the mechanisms that allow seats to be adjusted.

这些企业正在探索各类新技术与特殊材料，以期替代由稀土金属制成的磁体，这类磁体广泛应用于各类汽车的数十种零部件中，涵盖挡风玻璃雨刷电机、座椅调节机构等等。

Magnets made with the rare-earth elements neodymium, dysprosium and terbium are especially important for the motors that move electric vehicles and hybrids, which are becoming more popular.

由钕、镝、铽等稀土元素制成的磁体对日益普及的电动汽车和混合动力汽车的驱动电机至关重要。

China dominates mining and processing of most rare earths and has used its near monopoly as a diplomatic weapon. This year, it imposed controls on exports of some of those materials in apparent retaliation for President Trump’s stiff tariffs on Chinese goods.

中国在绝大多数稀土的开采与加工领域占据主导地位，并将其近乎垄断的优势当作外交武器。今年，中国对部分稀土材料实施出口管制，此举显然是对特朗普总统对中国商品征收高额关税的报复。

The recent instability in rare-earth supplies is a much bigger threat to automakers than in the past. It has given new urgency to the search for motors that don’t need rare earths or for materials that would replace them.

相较以往，近期稀土供应的不稳定性对车企构成了更大威胁，这也让寻找无稀土电机或稀土替代材料的工作变得愈发紧迫。

BMW’s electric vehicles already use motors that operate without rare earths. Researchers at Northeastern University and other institutions are working to synthesize materials that have promising magnetic properties and are found only in meteorites.

宝马的电动汽车已率先采用不含稀土的驱动电机。东北大学等机构的研究人员正致力于合成具有优异磁性能的材料，这类材料目前只能在陨石中找到。

Start-ups have begun developing new kinds of motors and other technologies. And the Department of Energy is encouraging that work, despite the Trump administration’s rollback of other forms of support for electric vehicles.

初创企业已着手研发新型电机及其他替代技术。尽管特朗普政府削减了对电动汽车领域的其他支持，但美国能源部仍在积极推动这类研发工作。

哈纳夫普里特·吉尔是加州初创企业Conifer的工程师，该公司生产无稀土电机。

Many of these efforts won’t bear fruit for years. And substitute technologies like those used by BMW can be more expensive or have other drawbacks. For the time being, the industry remains extremely vulnerable to shortages that could bring assembly lines to a halt.

不过，多数研发举措要在数年后才能取得成效。类似宝马采用的替代技术可能成本更高或存在其他缺陷。目前来看，汽车行业仍极易受供应短缺影响，一旦稀土断供，汽车生产线可能随时陷入停滞。

“This isn’t a challenge you can overcome in a year,” said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“这绝非一年内就能攻克的难题，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心关键矿产安全项目主任格雷塞林·巴斯卡兰表示。

This month, Beijing suspended some of its rare-earth export controls as part of an agreement with the Trump administration. But controls remain a threat as tensions between the United States and China continue.

本月，作为与特朗普政府达成协议的一部分，中国暂停了部分稀土出口管制措施。但随着美中紧张局势持续，出口管制的威胁始终存在。

“There is now sort of a détente,” said Tom Moerenhout, who leads the Critical Materials Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “But the question is not will there be a next event where rare earths are being weaponized, but rather when.”

“当前局势可说是一种缓和状态，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心关键材料项目负责人汤姆·莫伦豪特指出。“但问题不在于稀土是否会再次被当作武器使用，而在于下一次发生在何时。”

The auto industry has reckoned with rare-earth shortages before. Beginning in 2010, China choked off supplies, leading to a dispute with the Obama administration.

汽车行业并非首次应对稀土短缺危机。早在2010年，中国就曾切断稀土供应，引发了与奥巴马政府的争端。

The coronavirus pandemic, which caused severe shortages of semiconductors and other components, reinforced the dangers of depending too much on a few suppliers or vendors from one country. As a result, many automakers began looking for alternatives.

新冠疫情导致半导体及其他零部件严重短缺，这一事件进一步凸显了过度依赖少数供应商或单一供应国的巨大风险。正因如此，众多车企开始着手寻找替代方案。

Carmakers can use two strategies to keep their assembly lines running. They can find rare earths outside China, or they can switch to components that don’t require those metals.

车企可采用两种策略维持生产线运转：一是从中国以外的地区获取稀土资源；二是改用不依赖稀土金属的零部件。

General Motors is pursuing the first strategy with MP Materials, an American company that is mining rare earths in California. MP is also building a facility in Texas to refine the materials and use them to make magnets. Under an agreement announced in 2021, G.M. has promised to buy most of the output of the Texas factory for use in Cadillacs and Chevrolets. MP also has agreements with Apple and the Defense Department.

通用汽车选择了第一种策略，与美国MP材料公司展开合作，后者正在加利福尼亚州开采稀土，同时还在得克萨斯州建设一座加工厂，用于稀土提纯及磁体制造。根据2021年公布的协议，通用汽车承诺将采购这座得州工厂的大部分出品，用于凯迪拉克和雪佛兰车型的生产。此外，MP材料公司还与苹果公司及美国国防部签订了合作协议。

Such agreements provide companies like MP guaranteed revenue, something that wasn’t available to rare-earth companies and processors that went bankrupt after previous crises when prices fell so much that they couldn’t compete with Chinese suppliers. MP acquired its site in California from one such bankrupt company.

这类协议为MP材料公司等企业提供了稳定的收入保障。这正是此前稀土危机中破产企业所缺少的，当时价格暴跌导致它们无法与中方供应商竞争。MP材料公司位于加利福尼亚州的稀土矿场，正是从这样一家破产企业手中收购而来。

But there is also a risk to automakers like G.M. They may wind up paying more than other manufacturers if shortages ease and prices fall again.

但对通用汽车这类车企而言，这种合作也存在风险：一旦稀土供应短缺缓解、价格回落，它们最终可能要比其他制造商支付更高的成本。

G.M. is also searching for components that don’t need rare earths. “There’s nothing like not having to use rare-earth things, whether it’s magnets or batteries or whatever,” Mark Reuss, the president of G.M., said at a company event in New York recently. “How do we engineer out that dependency?”

与此同时，通用汽车也在寻找无需稀土的零部件。“如果能完全不用稀土相关产品，无论是磁体、电池还是其他部件，那再好不过了，”通用汽车总裁马克·罗伊斯近期在纽约的一场企业活动中表示。“我们该如何通过技术革新摆脱这种依赖？”

A G.M. spokesman declined to provide specifics.

通用汽车发言人拒绝披露具体的研发细节。

Back in the 1980s, a G.M. unit developed magnets made from neodymium, iron and boron, which are now widely used in electric vehicle motors. But G.M. sold the technology to Chinese companies.

回溯至20世纪80年代，通用汽车旗下子公司曾研发出钕铁硼磁体，如今这种磁体已广泛应用于电动汽车电机。但遗憾的是，通用汽车后来将这项技术出售给了中国企业。

BMW is using motors without neodymium or other rare earths in models like the iX sport utility vehicle. An electric current generates the magnetic field inside the motor that converts electrons to motion.

宝马则在iX运动型多用途汽车等车型中采用了不含钕及其他稀土元素的电机。该电机通过电流产生磁场，进而将电能转化为动能。

A spike in the price of neodymium around 2011 prompted BMW to begin developing the technology. The luxury carmaker says it has largely solved the drawbacks of these motors, which tend to be heavier, bulkier and less energy efficient than those with rare earths. The company makes the motors in factories near its headquarters in Munich and in Austria.

2011年前后钕价飙升，促使宝马启动了这项无稀土电机技术的研发。这家豪华车企表示已基本解决了此类电机的固有缺陷——相较于含稀土的电机，它们原本存在更重、更臃肿、能效更低的问题。目前，宝马在慕尼黑总部附近的工厂及奥地利的工厂生产这类电机。

The motors are more efficient than those that use rare earths at the speeds required for everyday driving, said Stefan Ortmann, a BMW engineer. There are other advantages, he said. The magnetic field in BMW’s motors can be dialed up or down, and the motors are easier to keep cool.

宝马工程师斯特凡·奥特曼称，在日常行驶所需的车速范围内，这种无稀土电机的能效甚至优于稀土电机。他还提到，该电机还有其他优势：磁场强度可灵活调节，且散热性能更出色。

“We think it’s the sweet spot for us,” Mr. Ortmann said.

“我们认为这正是适合我们的最优方案，”奥特曼表示。

A new version of the motor is even more efficient than earlier machines and will be installed in the iX3 S.U.V. that BMW will sell in the United States next summer. The company says that model will be able to travel 400 miles between charges.

该电机的升级版本能效进一步提升，将于明年夏天搭载在美国上市的宝马iX3运动型多用途汽车上。宝马称，这款车型单次充电续航里程可达约640公里。

The Trump administration is offering grants of up to $3 million to help researchers develop alternatives to rare earths. To qualify, applicants must strive to create magnets twice as powerful as the best rare-earth magnets, a goal that some experts say is unrealistic.

特朗普政府提供了最高300万美元的奖金，用于资助研究人员研发稀土替代材料。申请者须致力于制造出强度达顶级稀土磁体两倍的磁体，但部分专家认为该目标不切实际。

In a document outlining the program, the Department of Energy expressed confidence that the target could be met using artificial intelligence.

美国能源部在一份项目说明文件中表示，有信心借助人工智能技术实现这一目标。

“Recent technological advances have the potential to dramatically accelerate new magnet discovery,” the department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, said in August. The department did not respond to a request for comment.

“近期的技术突破有望大幅加速新型磁体的研发进程，”美国能源部先进研究计划局于8月表示。该部未回应置评请求。

The tea farmer in Japan, the shoe company in Montreal, the chocolatier in Mexico: Small businesses around the world have been roiled by President Trump’s constantly changing trade policies.

从日本的茶农、蒙特利尔的鞋业公司到墨西哥的巧克力生产商，全世界的小企业都被特朗普总统不断变化的贸易政策搅得不得安宁。

The trade rules have upended strategies, prices, logistics and investments as businesses try to both inform and hold on to their U.S. customers. Some small companies, which operate on razor-thin margins, are questioning or pausing their U.S. expansion plans. We spoke to six businesses, from Sweden to Brazil, about how they’re communicating with customers and managing the uncertainty. Here’s what they said.

这些贸易规则打乱了企业的策略、价格、物流和投资计划，各家公司努力向美国客户解释情况，想方设法留住他们。一些利润微薄的小企业正在重新评估或暂缓在美国市场的扩张计划。我们采访了从瑞典到巴西的六家企业，探寻他们是如何与客户沟通并应对当前不确定性的。以下是他们的说法。

For a Swedish designer, sales surged and then slumped.

一位瑞典服装设计师经历了销量的大起大落。

Asket, a Stockholm-based clothing company, emailed its U.S. customers in mid-August warning of possible price increases and the expiring de minimis exemption, which allowed the duty-free entry of merchandise valued at under $800. “It’s not super sexy communication,” said August Bard Bringeus, Asket’s co-founder and chief executive. But it prompted a spending spree, with U.S. sales more than doubling over 10 days.

总部位于斯德哥尔摩的服装公司Asket在8月中旬向美国客户发去电子邮件，提醒可能涨价，以及小额包裹免税政策（价值低于800美元的商品免关税入境）即将到期。公司联合创始人兼首席执行官奥古斯特·巴德·布林格乌斯坦言，“沟通这种事情肯定谈不上愉快。”但这封邮件引发了一波订购潮，美国市场的销售额在10天内翻了一倍不止。

在小额包裹免税政策取消前夕，Asket与Maguire两家企业向客户发出了通知函。

The company has kept prices steady, taking a hit on its margins. “It will probably need to change,” Mr. Bard Bringeus said, adding: “We’ll probably need to increase prices in the future to regain what we’re losing now.” European Union exports to the United States are now subject to a 15 percent tariff.

公司牺牲了部分利润空间，一直保持价格不变。“这种情况恐怕需要改变，”巴德·布林格乌斯说。他还表示：“我们未来可能需要提价，以弥补现在的损失。”目前欧盟对美国的出口需缴纳15%的关税。

The uncertainty has been frustrating. “It’s not like all European brands are going to start manufacturing in the U.S. all of a sudden; it’s impossible,” said Mr. Bard Bringeus.

这种不确定性令人感到沮丧。“欧洲品牌不可能一下子全部转到美国生产，这根本不现实，”巴德·布林格乌斯说。

The United States is one of the Swedish retailer’s biggest markets, but U.S. sales fell in the third quarter, when de minimis ended, and are now down about 20 percent from a year ago.

美国是这家瑞典零售商最大的市场之一，但随着小额包裹免税政策的终止，其第三季度对美销售额出现下滑，目前较去年同期下降约20%。

“I think there’s just a general aversion, probably, toward buying from European brands because you have this notion that you’re going to be hit by tariffs or that your order is going to be charged with customs and duties,” Mr. Bard Bringeus said.

“我认为大家对购买欧洲品牌普遍产生了一种抵触心理，因为你会有这样的印象：你会被征收关税，或者你的订单会被收取各种进口税费，”巴德·布林格乌斯说。

A Canadian shoe seller hits ‘pause’ on U.S. expansion.

一家加拿大鞋企暂停了在美国市场的扩张。

Maguire鞋业的联合创始人米里亚姆·贝尔齐勒-马圭尔在自家的蒙特利尔门店。

Just before the end of de minimis, Maguire, a Montreal-based shoe company, told its American customers that it would ship from its U.S. stores, and encouraged them to order before the loophole closed. A surge in U.S. orders followed.

就在小额包裹免税政策结束前夕，来自蒙特利尔的制鞋公司Maguire告诉美国客户，他们将从美国门店发货，并鼓励他们在政策窗口关闭前下单。美国市场随即出现了订单的激增。

About a week later, Maguire sent another email announcing a price increase. Myriam Belzile-Maguire, its president and co-founder, said that she raised prices between $10 and $30 in both the United States and Canada.

大约一周后，Maguire再度致函客户宣布调价方案。公司总裁兼联合创始人米里亚姆·贝尔齐勒-马圭尔表示，她在美国和加拿大市场都将价格提高了10至30美元不等。

The company has two stores in the United States, its second-largest market, but is waiting before opening more. “I want to wait for a bit more stability,” Ms. Belzile-Maguire said.

尽管美国是它第二大市场且已设有两家门店，但公司决定暂缓新增门店计划。“我想等市场稳定一点再作打算，”贝尔齐勒-马圭尔表示。

A Brazilian coffee grower waits for U.S. customers to return.

一位巴西咖啡种植者正在等待美国客户回归。

After a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian coffee choked off U.S. orders, Ana Cecilia Velloso, whose family owns São Luiz Estate Coffee in Carmo do Paranaíba, Brazil, had planned to skip a San Diego coffee expo to market her beans. Now that those tariffs have been revoked, she’s considering going, but she’s wary. “I need to wait for the C market to settle down,” she wrote in a text, adding: “I’ll wait for my customers to come to me.”

50%的关税壁垒扼杀了美国订单后，在巴西的卡莫迪帕拉纳伊巴，圣路易斯咖啡庄园的主人安娜·塞西莉亚·维洛索一度打算放弃参加圣迭戈咖啡展，推广自家咖啡豆的机会。如今随着关税撤销，她虽重新考虑参展，但仍持审慎态度。“我需要等待C市场（阿拉比卡咖啡期货市场——译注）企稳，”她在短信中写道，另外“我会静候客户的主动回归”。

Before the tariffs were imposed, Mariana Faerron Gutierrez, the founder and chief executive of Tico Coffee Roasters in Campbell, Calif., had planned to import Ms. Velloso’s coffee. “If the tariffs wouldn’t have happened at that level,” she said, “her coffee would be here in my warehouse right now.”

在关税措施实施前，加州坎贝尔市Tico咖啡烘焙工坊创始人兼首席执行官玛丽安娜·法伦·古铁雷斯原计划进口维洛索的咖啡豆。她坦言，“若非当时高额关税的阻碍，这批咖啡现在应该已经存放在我的仓库里了。”

Now, she’s looking to get Brazilian coffee as soon as she can. And while she’s optimistic that tariffs won’t change again this year, she’s cautious. “What is the contingency plan if something changes?” she said. “It might be tariffs again, or it might be something else.”

现在，她正积极寻求尽快采购巴西咖啡豆。尽管对今年关税政策保持稳定抱持乐观，她仍不敢掉以轻心。她说，“如果政策再生变数——可能又是关税，也可能是其他状况，我们的应急预案是什么？”

A Japanese matcha farmer opens a U.S. outpost.

一位日本抹茶农户在美国设点。

Daiki Tanaka, who grows and sells matcha in Japan, meets many of his U.S. customers during tours and tastings at his 10-acre farm, d:matcha, near Kyoto.

在京都近郊约60亩的d:matcha农场里，种植、销售抹茶的田中大贵常年通过参观与品鉴活动接待许多美国客户。

But the end of the de minimis exemption this year meant many of his shipments to the United States now carried a 15 percent tariff. He responded by creating a U.S. subsidiary to import his tea and distribute it, absorbing the tariff for American customers who make up his biggest direct-to-consumer market.

然而随着今年小额包裹免税政策的结束，他发往美国的多数包裹现在都需要缴纳15%的关税。为此他在美国设立了一家子公司，负责茶叶的进口与分销，通过自行吸收关税来维系这个最重要的直营市场。

“The connection is important, so that’s why the tariff thing is really — it makes it a bit more complicated,” Mr. Tanaka said.

“客户纽带至关重要，这就是为什么关税这件事……它会让情况变得有点复杂，”田中说道。

Lauren Purvis, founder of Mizuba Tea Company in Portland, Ore., imported over 20 tons of matcha from small farms and producers in Japan last year. This year, tariffs have cost her over $110,000, Ms. Purvis said, and the trade policy has led to big delivery delays: She had over $120,000 worth of Japanese matcha, shipped in August and September, stuck in Kentucky. She’s still waiting for about half that inventory.

位于俄勒冈州波特兰的Mizuba Tea Company创始人劳伦·珀维斯去年从日本的小农场和生产者那里进口了超过20吨抹茶。她表示，今年的关税成本已超11万美元，而且新的贸易政策导致了严重的交付延误：她有价值超过12万美元的日本抹茶（在8月和9月发货）卡在了肯塔基州。现在，还有约半数没收到。

The Trump administration in recent weeks lifted some tariffs, including those on green tea. But Ms. Purvis wishes they had been more carefully planned from the outset. “All it did was increase costs,” she said. “I think it is hard to shake the feeling of, what was the point.”

尽管特朗普政府近周已取消包括绿茶在内的部分关税，但珀维斯希望政策制定者在一开始就能考量得更为周全。“这些关税除了推高成本别无他用，”她说。“实在难以摆脱这样一种感觉：这到底有什么意义呢。”

A Mexican chocolatier sends customers to Canada.

一位墨西哥巧克力商转战加拿大市场。

Víctor Feliu, who owns Feliu Chocolate in Guadalajara, Mexico, was so confused by the ever-changing rules for trade between Mexico and the United States that he has paused U.S. shipments.

墨西哥瓜达拉哈拉市Feliu巧克力创始人维克多·费利乌坦言，美墨间变幻莫测的贸易规则令他感到困惑，不得不暂停对美发货。

“I’m willing to pay tariffs, and I’m willing to comply with the paperwork,” he said. “But it’s very difficult if rules are changing every few months.”

他表示，“我并非不愿支付关税，也愿意处理相关手续，但如果规则每隔几个月就变一次，就非常困难了。”

While his chocolate bars are not subject to tariffs, he paused U.S. shipments in early September after over a dozen packages were returned because of complications posed by the new rules, which covered things like labeling, more paperwork and registration, he said. It took weeks for Mr. Feliu to track down the new requirements for small shipments. “We’re a small business; no one tells us,” he said.

尽管他公司生产的巧克力棒不需要缴关税，但他说，他在9月初暂停了对美国的发货，因为有十几个包裹因合规问题遭退回，这些新规涉及标签、更多手续以及注册等事项。费利乌花费数周才厘清小额包裹的新规。他说：“我们是小企业，没有人会告诉我们这些事。”

He has suggested that U.S. customers buy his chocolate through a Canadian retailer, and his plans to sell through U.S. shops are on hold.

他建议美国顾客通过一家加拿大的零售商购买他的巧克力，原定进军美国实体店的计划也随之搁置。

For a Danish retailer, mistakes mean money.

对于一家丹麦零售商来说，出错就意味着钱的损失。

Tariff-related errors are proving costly for Cecilie Moosgaard, a co-founder of the Danish accessories retailer Lié Studio.

丹麦配饰零售商Lié Studio的联合创始人塞西莉·莫斯加德发现，与关税相关的错误正造成巨大损失。

“We’re seeing a lot of these mistakes, meaning that our import duties are much higher than they need to be,” Ms. Moosgaard said. On several occasions, she said, Lié Studio handbags shipped to the United States were misclassified as originating from China — and subject to tariffs as high as 25 percent — rather than Portugal, where they were made, which carries a lower tax. The mistakes mean unexpected costs and time spent trying to get a refund — which she’s still waiting for.

“我们犯了很多归类错误，导致进口关税远超应缴额度，”莫斯加德指出。她透露，公司发往美国的手袋被误分类为原产中国——因而面临25%的高额关税——而实际产地葡萄牙的税率要低得多。这些失误不仅带来意外成本，更耗费大量时间申请退税——至今仍在等待退款。

The company, which sells jewelry and handbags online and at U.S. retailers, increased prices for U.S. customers by around 20 percent in mid-August.

这家通过线上渠道及美国零售商销售珠宝手袋的企业，已于8月中旬将对美售价提高了约20%。

Ukrainian and European officials sprang into a frenzy over the weekend to alter President Trump’s new 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, developed with input from Russia and heavily weighted toward the Kremlin.

上周末，乌克兰和欧洲官员紧急行动，试图修改特朗普总统新推出的28点乌克兰和平计划。该计划在制定过程中听取了俄罗斯的意见，明显偏向克里姆林宫。

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, for his part, sat back and watched.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京则选择静观事态发展。

For the Russian leader, a Kremlin-friendly peace plan that enshrines Ukraine’s perpetual subordination and vulnerability would be a win. So would a failed process that leads Mr. Trump to pull remaining support for Ukraine and further antagonize European allies.

对这位俄罗斯领导人而言，一份偏向克里姆林宫、确保乌克兰处于永久从属与脆弱地位的和平计划是一种胜利。即便和平进程失败，导致特朗普停止剩余的对乌援助，进一步疏远欧洲盟友，对他来说也同样有利。

U.S. and Ukrainian officials reported progress on talks aimed at amending the proposal, saying they had made some unspecified changes. By late Monday, the officials had returned home.

美国和乌克兰官员称，针对该修改计划的谈判已取得进展，表示已作出部分未具体说明的调整。截至周一晚间，参与谈判的官员已回国。

It is unclear if Mr. Putin will accept those changes. On Friday, in a video conference with security officials, the Russian leader said the 28-point plan could be the foundation for a peace settlement, pending “substantive and meaningful discussion,” or Russia could keep pressing its case in Ukraine by force.

目前尚不清楚普京是否会接受这些修改。上周五，这位俄罗斯领导人在与安全官员举行的视频会议上表示，这份28点计划可作为和平解决方案的基础，但需经过“实质性且有意义的磋商”；否则，俄罗斯将继续通过武力在乌克兰推进自身主张。

More Ukrainian cities will fall to Russian troops, “perhaps not as quickly as we would prefer, but inevitably,” Mr. Putin warned. He said such a path “also suits us,” because Moscow was content to pursue its interests “through armed confrontation.”

普京警告称，更多乌克兰城市将被俄军攻陷，“或许不会如我们所愿那般迅速，但这是必然趋势”。他表示，这种方式“我们同样可以接受”，因为俄罗斯愿意通过“武装对抗”来维护自身利益。

上周在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔市，一名居民与母亲站在遭俄军空袭损毁的建筑外。

His message: His authoritarian system can outlast the resources and will of its adversaries.

他的言外之意是：他的威权体制让他拥有比对手更耐久的资源和意志。

“The West has entered a pain contest with Vladimir Putin. Who can withstand more pain?” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “In this competition, Putin can be tough as nails, and his system can be tough as nails.”

“西方正在与弗拉基米尔·普京进行忍耐力的比拼，看谁能承受更多痛苦，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫表示。“在这场较量中，普京本人及他所建立的体制都将坚不可摧。”

The Ukrainians are just as tough, Mr. Gabuev noted, but “they are under-resourced,” suffering from a dearth of military personnel, weaponry and money, as well as a lack of unified Western support.

加布耶夫指出，乌克兰方面同样意志坚定，但是“他们资源匮乏”，面临军事人员、武器装备和资金短缺的困境，同时还缺乏西方世界的统一支持。

Mr. Putin’s ability to continue waging the war isn’t limitless. His economy is facing trouble, particularly after a significant decline in oil revenue, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s recent sanctions. Moscow is raising taxes to cover the war effort and has pruned next year’s military budget. Russia’s forces are on the front foot, but the advance has been slow and costly in lives and matériel.

普京持续发动战争的能力并非不受限制。俄罗斯经济正陷入困境，尤其是石油收入大幅下滑，而特朗普政府近期实施的制裁更是加剧了这一局面。莫斯科正通过增税来支撑战争开支，并削减了明年的军事预算。尽管俄军目前占据攻势，但推进缓慢，且付出了惨重的人员伤亡和物资损耗代价。

Still, Mr. Putin believes, compared to Ukraine, that time is on his side. And while he appears satisfied to let the peace process either succeed or fail, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is under immense pressure on multiple fronts, as Mr. Trump pushes him to accept a settlement plan by Thursday.

即便如此，普京仍认为，相较于乌克兰，时间在自己这边。他似乎对和平进程的成败都持无所谓的态度，但乌克兰总统泽连斯基却身陷多方面的巨大压力——特朗普正逼迫他最晚周四前接受这份和平方案。

莫斯科某加油站，1月。美国近期实施的制裁针对俄罗斯两大石油公司——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司。

The battlefield situation has been deteriorating for Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky has been weakened domestically by a ballooning corruption scandal. And Ukraine is running low on cash to sustain its defenses and economy, with its European allies vacillating about using billions of dollars in frozen Russian money to fund Kyiv.

乌克兰方面的战局持续恶化。泽连斯基因不断发酵的腐败丑闻在国内支持度下滑，且乌克兰维持国防与经济运转的资金即将耗尽。对于是否动用冻结的数十亿美元俄罗斯资产援助基辅，欧洲梦游始终犹豫不决。

Mr. Trump has also begun aiming invective again at Ukraine, accusing Mr. Zelensky this past weekend of expressing “ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS.”

特朗普近期也再度对乌克兰口出恶言，上周末指责泽连斯基“对我们的付出毫无感激之情”。

Those efforts produced a 28-point plan that underscored Mr. Putin’s unwillingness to bend on the war, and that Ukraine and its European allies are now pushing to amend.

此前双方磋商形成的28点计划凸显了普京在战争问题上寸步不让的立场，如今乌克兰及其欧洲盟友正全力推动对计划的修改。

Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin foreign policy aide, said on Monday that many “but not all” of the plan’s positions were acceptable to Russia, but required detailed discussion. He said that European counterproposals that have been circulating were not constructive.

克里姆林宫外交政策顾问尤里·乌沙科夫周一表示，俄罗斯认可该计划中的“多项而非全部”主张，但需展开详细磋商。他还称，目前流传的欧洲提案“不具建设性”。

Most of the provisions in the 28-point proposal reflected Mr. Putin’s longstanding demands, including a legally enshrined ban on NATO membership for Ukraine. Still, it is not clear that Mr. Putin would accept the plan even in its original form. Some smaller points represent a comedown from previous Kremlin proposals, such as a cap on Ukraine’s military strength at 600,000, versus the 100,000 that Moscow proposed in 2022 talks.

这份28点计划的大部分条款都反映了普京长期以来的核心诉求，其中包括以法律形式永久禁止乌克兰加入北约。即便如此，普京是否会接受计划的原始版本仍不明朗。部分次要条款相较克里姆林宫此前的提案有所让步，例如将乌克兰军队规模上限设定为60万人，而2022年谈判时俄方提出的上限仅为10万人。

In his remarks on Friday, Mr. Putin spun it as if he had already made concessions. He said that when he met with Mr. Trump in August in Alaska, the Americans had asked the Russians to show flexibility, and that he was “ready” to do so.

在上周五的讲话中，普京将这些调整包装成己方的让步。他表示，今年8月在阿拉斯加与特朗普会面时，美方曾请求俄方展现灵活性，而他当时表示已经“准备好”这样做。

By this, Mr. Putin was most likely referring to the question of territory. Russia’s negotiators dropped their initial demand that Ukraine hand over the entirety of the four regions that Moscow “annexed” in 2022, even though Russia doesn’t control huge portions of that land, including two regional capitals.

普京所指的很可能是领土问题。俄罗斯谈判代表已放弃最初要求乌克兰交出2022年俄方“吞并”的全部四个州的诉求——尽管俄方实际控制区并不涵盖包括两个地区首府在内的广阔区域。

特朗普总统与普京总统于8月在阿拉斯加会晤，两位领导人就乌克兰战争进行了讨论。

In Alaska, Mr. Putin expressed a willingness to stop fighting if, in addition to accepting his other demands, Ukraine handed over just the part of the Donetsk region it still held. The 28-point plan calls for Ukraine to withdraw from that territory, which would become a “demilitarized zone” recognized as Russian land.

在阿拉斯加会谈中，普京曾表示，若乌克兰在接受其他所有要求基础上，还交出仍在其控制下的顿涅茨克部分地区，俄方愿意停火。此次28点计划明确要求乌克兰撤出该区域，该地区将成为被认定为俄罗斯领土的“非军事区”。

Because Mr. Putin has portrayed his war domestically as a rescue operation for the Russian-speaking people of Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk, it would be difficult to sell a victory at home that does not result in the capture of the rest of Donetsk. Russia already controls Luhansk.

由于普京在俄罗斯国内一直将这场战争宣传为“拯救顿涅茨克及毗邻卢甘斯克地区俄族民众”的行动，若无法夺取顿涅茨克剩余领土，他很难向国内民众宣告战争胜利。目前卢甘斯克已完全处于俄罗斯控制之下。

Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said it remained to be seen whether Mr. Putin would be willing to compromise. Mr. Putin could be aiming, Mr. Meister said, to cleave Mr. Trump from the Ukrainians and the Europeans, leaving Russia with an easier path to subjugate Ukraine by force.

德国对外关系委员会俄罗斯问题分析师斯特凡·迈斯特表示，普京是否愿意真正妥协仍有待观察。他认为，普京的真实意图或许是离间特朗普与乌克兰及欧洲的关系，为俄罗斯通过武力征服乌克兰扫清障碍。

“Putin’s calculation is he hopes that Trump gets frustrated with Zelensky and backtracks with any kind of support, and if there is no intelligence sharing or long-range missiles, the Europeans can’t replace it,” Mr. Meister said.

“普京的算盘是，希望特朗普对泽连斯基失去耐心，进而停止一切形式的援助。一旦失去情报共享和远程导弹支持，欧洲方面根本无力填补这一空缺，”迈斯特说道。

Ultimately, Mr. Meister said, Mr. Putin “wants to break Ukraine.”

他总结道，普京的最终目标“就是摧毁乌克兰”。

周日在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔市，人们为上周俄罗斯袭击的遇难者举行葬礼。

President Trump said on Monday that he had accepted an invitation from Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to visit Beijing in April. That occurred while the two leaders discussed several major issues between their nations, including Taiwan, the Ukraine war and lackluster Chinese purchases of American soybeans, according to separate official accounts of their call earlier in the day.

特朗普总统周一表示，他已经接受了中国领导人习近平的邀请，将于明年4月访问北京。据双方各自发布的当天早些时候通话的官方记录，两位领导人在通话中讨论了涉及双边关系的几个重大问题，包括台湾问题、乌克兰战争以及中国对美国大豆采购量不足等。

In an unusual move, the call was initiated by Mr. Xi, and it came after weeks of rising tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan. It also followed a weekend in which top aides to Mr. Trump pushed Ukrainian officials in Geneva to move forward on terms of a proposed peace settlement with Russia, China’s partner — a settlement that Russian leaders have not agreed to.

此次通话是由习近平主动发起的，这不同寻常。此前数周，中国和日本因台湾问题关系持续紧张。而就在上周末，特朗普的高级助手在日内瓦敦促乌克兰官员推进与俄罗斯——中国的重要伙伴——达成一项和平协议，而俄罗斯领导人尚未同意该方案。

Mr. Trump told reporters in late October that he would visit Beijing in April after he and Mr. Xi held a summit in South Korea. American and Chinese officials meeting then in Seoul agreed to a yearlong truce that has rolled back many of the tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on China, and the retaliatory measures Beijing took in return.

10月下旬，在特朗普与习近平于韩国举行峰会后，特朗普曾告诉记者他将于4月访问北京。当时在首尔会晤的美中官员​​达成了一项为期一年的贸易休战协议，取消了特朗普对中国加征的多项关税，以及北京方面采取的报复措施。

In a social media post on Monday afternoon, Mr. Trump said it was a “very good telephone call” that touched on Ukraine, China’s exports of chemicals used to make fentanyl and its purchases of farm products. He described the call as a “follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea” and said there had been significant progress on both sides in meeting those commitments.

特朗普在周一下午的一则社交媒体帖子中表示，这是一次“非常好的通话”，内容涉及乌克兰问题、中国出口用于制造芬太尼的化学品，以及中国购买农产品的情况。他将这通电话描述为“我们在韩国非常成功的会晤的后续”，并表示双方在履行这些承诺方面取得了显著进展。

“Now we can set our sights on the big picture,” Mr. Trump said. “To that end, President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted, and I reciprocated where he will be my guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year.”

“现在我们可以着眼于大局了，”特朗普说。“为此，习近平主席邀请我于4月访问北京，我已经接受。我也对他发出了邀请，欢迎他在明年晚些时候作为我的客人对美国进行国事访问。”

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters outside the White House on Monday that Mr. Trump spoke with Mr. Xi for about an hour. The two spoke about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but “the focus was mainly on the trade deal that we are working on with China.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周一在白宫外告诉记者，特朗普总统与习近平主席通话约一小时。两人谈到了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的问题，但“重点主要集中在我们正在与中国商讨的贸易协议上”。

Mr. Trump also spoke about the needs of American farmers, she said. Overall, Mr. Trump is “pleased with what we’ve seen from the Chinese,” Ms. Leavitt said.

莱维特说，特朗普还谈到了美国农民的需求。她表示，总的来说，特朗普总统“对我们从中国方面看到的表现感到满意”。

Mr. Trump and Ms. Leavitt did not mention Taiwan in their summaries. But Chinese state news organizations stressed that Mr. Xi had “clarified China’s principled position” on Taiwan, a self-governing, democratic island that China lays claim to. Mr. Xi emphasized “that Taiwan’s return to China is an important part of the postwar international order,” state news reports said.

特朗普和莱维特在对通话的总结中没有提到台湾。但中国官方媒体强调，习近平主席“阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场”。台湾是中国主张拥有主权的自治民主岛屿。官方报道称，习近平强调“台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分”。

“While Beijing emphasized the discussion on Taiwan and Ukraine in today’s leaders’ call, Trump to no surprise focused on economic and trade issues,” said Wendy Cutler, a senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former senior U.S. trade official.

“北京强调今天的领导人通话中讨论了台湾和乌克兰，而特朗普不出所料地把重点放在了经济和贸易问题上，”亚洲协会政策研究所高级副总裁、前美国高级贸易官员温迪·卡特勒说。

The issue of Taiwan did not come up at the summit in Seoul. However, tensions over Taiwan between China and Japan, America’s closest ally in Asia, have soared this month. Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told Parliament on Nov. 7 that an attempt by China to blockade or invade Taiwan could prompt Japan to intervene with military force — the first time in recent memory that a Japanese leader has made this kind of remark. China denounced her comment and threatened reprisals.

在首尔的峰会上台湾问题没有被提及。但本月，中国与美国在亚洲最亲密盟友日本因台湾问题紧张局势急剧升温，日本新任首相高市早苗11月对国会表示，若中国试图封锁或入侵台湾，日本可能动用武力干预——这是日本领导人近年首次发表此类言论。中国谴责了她的言论，并威胁要进行报复。

Ms. Takaichi’s comment echoed the four separate statements that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made when he vowed that the American military would defend Taiwan against any Chinese invasion. Mr. Trump has been more circumspect and has not said what he would do if China tried to seize Taiwan.

高市早苗的表态呼应了美国总统拜登四次公开承诺美军将抵御中国对台侵略的立场。特朗普则更为谨慎，始终未表态若中国试图占领台湾他会怎么做。

Mr. Xi has no doubt noted that, and his call was an apparent effort to move the American president closer to Beijing’s perspective and to get Washington to rein in Tokyo.

习近平无疑注意到了这一点，他在电话中显然是试图让美国总统更接近北京的立场，并促使华盛顿约束东京。

According to the official Chinese summary, Mr. Xi made the unusual argument of telling Mr. Trump that China and the United States “fought side by side against fascism and militarism” during World War II, when Japan was their common enemy, and that the issue of Taiwan should not be allowed to destabilize the historical partnership established then.

根据中国官方的通报，习近平向特朗普提出了一个不同寻常的论述，指出中美在“二战”期间曾经“并肩抗击法西斯主义和军国主义”，当时日本是两国的共同敌人，不应该让台湾问题动摇这个历史纽带。

“Beijing is rattled by the Japan flare-up because it sees a regional coalition coalescing around the idea that Taiwan’s security is a shared stake — and that any Chinese quarantine or attack would draw a coordinated response,” said Craig Singleton, a senior director for China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington research group that advocates a confrontational stance on China.

“北京对日本的挑衅感到不安，因为它看到一个地区联盟围绕着台湾的安全关乎共同利益的想法联合起来，中国的任何隔离或攻击都会引起协调的反应，”克雷格·辛格尔顿说，他是捍卫民主基金会的中国高级主管，该基金会是华盛顿的一个研究组织，主张对中国采取强硬立场。

“By pressing Trump directly, Xi is trying to get Washington to reinforce Beijing’s preferred narrative before that coalition hardens,” he added.

“习近平通过直接施压特朗普，试图在该联盟尚未巩固前，让华盛顿强化北京偏好的叙事框架，”他还说。

Mr. Biden’s security strategy in Asia had been to build up alliances and partnerships to forge a united front to counter China’s aggressive military moves throughout the region, including in the Taiwan Strait.

拜登在亚洲的安全战略始终致力于建立联盟和伙伴关系，形成统一战线，以对抗中国在包括台湾海峡在内的整个地区咄咄逼人的军事行动。

The Chinese state media summary also said the leaders discussed the situation in Ukraine on Monday.

中国官方媒体的摘要还说，两国领导人周一讨论了乌克兰局势。

Throughout the Ukraine war, analysts have noted the similarities in how President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia regards Ukraine and how Mr. Xi sees Taiwan. Both view those territories as ones that must be brought under the control of their governments in order to restore the historical Russian and Chinese empires.

纵观乌克兰战争，分析人士注意到俄罗斯总统普京看待乌克兰的方式与习近平看待台湾的方式存在相似性。两位领导人均将这些领土视为必须收归中央政府管辖的区域，以便恢复历史上的俄罗斯帝国和中华帝国版图。

Mr. Xi has remained a close partner of Mr. Putin during the Ukraine war, and China has supported Russia’s defense industry while avoiding sending potent arms to the Russian military. Mr. Putin’s full-scale invasion of Russia in 2022 helped destabilize diplomatic and trade ties around the world, and Chinese officials have had some anxiety about the persistent global costs of the war.

在乌克兰战争期间，习近平始终是普京的亲密伙伴，中国支持俄罗斯国防工业，但避免向俄军提供杀伤力强的武器。普京在2022年领导俄罗斯发动的全面入侵导致全球外交和贸易关系动荡，中国官员对这场战争的持续全球代价亦心存忧虑。

Mr. Trump has said he would like to get the war to end as soon as possible. Mr. Xi could see an opening now to offer help to Mr. Trump on this in exchange for concessions from Washington on issues such as Taiwan and tariffs.

特朗普曾表示希望尽快结束战争。习近平或可借此契机向特朗普提供协助，以换取华盛顿在台湾问题和关税等议题上的让步。

Although the United States and China have greeted the prospect of an economic truce, U.S. officials have appeared wary in recent weeks about whether all the promises made at the summit in Seoul would be fulfilled.

尽管美中都对经济休战的前景表示欢迎，但近几周来，美国官员似乎对峰会上做出的所有承诺是否都能落实持谨慎态度。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said this month that the United States and China were still working on details of an agreement that would guarantee the flow of valuable rare earth minerals from China. Beijing clamped down on exports of those products this year amid the trade clash, causing anxiety among automakers and other companies that need the minerals for their products.

美国财长斯科特·贝森特本月表示，两国仍在就保障稀有矿产稳定供应的协议细节进行磋商。北京今年曾在贸易冲突中收紧对这些产品的出口，引发依赖稀土的汽车制造商和其他企业的担忧。

U.S. and Chinese officials have also been at odds over China’s purchases of American farm goods. China halted purchases of American soybeans this year as trade tensions with the United States flared. After the meeting in South Korea, the Trump administration said China had agreed to resume purchases of American soybeans. The Chinese government, however, never specifically confirmed the details of that agreement.

美中官员在农产品采购问题上也存在分歧。由于与美国的贸易紧张局势升温，中国今年曾暂停购买美国大豆。在韩国会晤之后，特朗普政府表示中国已同意恢复购买美国大豆。然而，中国政府从未明确证实该协议的细节。

Brooke Rollins, the agriculture secretary, said on CNBC on Monday that China had bought about 1.5 million metric tons of soybeans since Oct. 1, a total that is far short of the 12 million metric tons that the Trump administration said the Chinese government has pledged to purchase by the end of the year.

美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯周一在CNBC节目中表示，自10月1日以来，中国购买了约150万吨大豆，这一数字远低于特朗普政府所称中国政府承诺在年底前购买的1200万吨。

“We’ve got a significant way to go,” Ms. Rollins said. “Every sign is that their commitment remains true.”Ms. Rollins said that the terms of the deal with China still needed to be finalized. She also explained that the preliminary agreement did not demand that the soybeans be shipped by the end of the year, but that orders needed to be placed.

“我们还有很长的路要走，”罗林斯说。“所有迹象都表明，他们的承诺依然有效。”罗林斯表示，与中国的协议条款仍需最终敲定。她还解释说，初步协议并未要求大豆必须在年底前装船运输，但需要在年底前下订单。

Amid the truce, the Trump administration has also been debating what kind of American A.I. technology to sell to China. Tech executives favor selling more advanced products to the country to try to keep Chinese companies from developing competing goods, but some Washington officials still see any effort to aid China’s A.I. industry as a national security threat.

在贸易休战期间，特朗普政府也在讨论应向中国出售何种美国人工智能技术。科技公司主管倾向于向中国出售更先进的产品，以防止中国公司开发竞争性产品，但一些华盛顿官员仍然认为，任何帮助中国人工智能产业发展的努力都构成国家安全威胁。

In an interview on Bloomberg TV on Monday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, who is in charge of technology export licenses, said that Mr. Trump was listening to various advisers with different opinions on the topic, and that the decision about whether to sell the H200, a more advanced chip made by Nvidia, was “on his desk.”

负责技术出口许可的美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克周一在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，特朗普正在听取多名顾问的不同意见，最终是否向中国出售英伟达更先进的H200芯片这一决定“取决于他”。

“He is going to weigh those decisions,” Mr. Lutnick said of the president. “He understands President Xi the best. He will decide whether we go forward with that or not.”

“他会权衡这些决定，”卢特尼克说。“他对习近平主席最为了解。他将决定我们是否推进这项销售。”

In Washington, a decade of rancorous polarization just gave us the longest ever government shutdown. But one belief has endured on both sides of the aisle: that the world order, built and led by the United States, is under threat from China, which aims to usurp America’s rightful place atop it.

在华盛顿，长达十年的激烈政治两极化刚刚导致了美国历史上最长的政府停摆。但两党却存在一个罕见的共识：由美国建立并主导的世界秩序正面临中国的威胁，中国意图取代美国在全球的正当领导地位。

There’s a phrase that encapsulates the theory: the Thucydides trap, referring to the violent clash that comes when a rising power challenges the ruling hegemon. In Thucydides’ time, it was Athens that successfully challenged the pre-eminence of Sparta. But it is a pattern that has played out repeatedly through history, with the ambition and aggression of the challenger almost always ending in bloodshed.

有一个词精准概括了这一论调——修昔底德陷阱，特指新兴大国挑战现存霸权国时引发的激烈冲突。在修昔底德所处的时代，是雅典成功挑战了斯巴达的霸主地位。而这一模式在历史上反复上演，新兴大国的野心与扩张几乎无一例外以流血冲突收场。

President Trump’s second term has upended this assumption. With its litany of chaos, the administration has pursued all on its own a root-and-branch destruction of the global order America made — threatening invasions, deploying punitive tariffs indiscriminately and all but abandoning longstanding alliances. China, by contrast, has responded mostly with a steely insistence on the status quo. In a startling reversal, it is America, not China, that seems determined to spring Thucydides’ trap. At the world’s summit, America is overthrowing America.

特朗普的第二任期彻底颠覆了这一预设。在一片混乱中，本届政府单方面对美国亲手建立的全球秩序展开了彻底破坏——威胁发动侵略、滥用惩罚性关税、近乎抛弃长期盟友。相比之下，中国的回应大多是坚定维护现状。局势出现惊人逆转：如今执意触发修昔底德陷阱的，似乎是美国而非中国。在世界之巅，美国正在自我颠覆。

The bipartisan consensus, now showing signs of strain, was built on a misreading of China’s intentions. That, at least, is the argument of a provocative paper published recently in the M.I.T. journal International Security by three East Asia scholars. “China is a status quo power concerned with regime stability,” the authors write, “and it remains more inwardly focused than externally oriented.”

两党此前的这一共识如今已显露裂痕，而这一共识本身建立在对中国意图的误读之上。至少，三位东亚问题学者近期发表在麻省理工学院《国际安全》(International Security)期刊上的一篇颇具争议的论文是这样认为的。作者写道：“中国是一个关注政权稳定、维护现状的大国，其对内政策重心远高于对外战略诉求。”

This cleareyed analysis was based on an examination of a vast corpus of Chinese documents and publications, from official speeches to school curriculums. The conclusions were striking. China’s stated territorial concerns, the authors found, do not extend beyond its long-held claim to Taiwan and relatively small border areas. “China’s aims are unambiguous; China’s aims are enduring; and China’s aims are limited,” they write.

这一清醒的分析基于对海量中国文献资料的深入研究，涵盖官方讲话、学校课程等各类文本。研究结论令人瞩目：作者发现，中国公开宣称的领土关切从未超出其长期主张的台湾地区及相对狭小的边境地带。“中国的目标明确无误；中国的目标持久不变；中国的目标是有限的，”他们写道。

Much of China’s foreign policy, rather than exporting its ideology abroad, is aimed at shoring up the power of the Communist Party at home. What outside observers take to be aggressive moves are often aimed at solving internal problems. Take its Belt and Road Initiative, which some see as a quasi-imperial effort to win the loyalty of developing nations. One of the paper’s authors, Zenobia Chan, a scholar of international relations who teaches at Georgetown University, said that the initiative was driven more by internal considerations than global ambition.

中国的大部分外交政策并非向外输出意识形态，而是旨在巩固执政党在国内的执政根基。外界眼中所谓的激进举措，往往是为解决国内问题而采取的行动。以“一带一路”倡议为例，一些人将其视为中国通过准帝国主义手段争取发展中国家支持的举措。但论文作者之一、乔治敦大学国际关系学者泽诺比亚·陈（音）表示，该倡议的背后更多是国内考量，而非全球野心。

“A lot of it is driven by domestic needs, excess industrial capacity after the global financial crisis,” she told me. China has for the most part not sought to use these investments as leverage for its global ambitions, she added, beyond its longstanding demand that its partners adhere to a One China policy and avoid recognizing the independence of Taiwan. It certainly has not asked developing nations to choose between itself and the United States.

“这在很大程度上是受国内需求推动的，全球金融危机后，中国出现了严重的工业产能过剩，”她告诉我。她还说，除了长期坚持要求合作方恪守一个中国政策、不承认台湾独立外，中国基本上并未将这些海外投资用作实现全球野心的杠杆，更没有强迫发展中国家在美国和中国之间选边站队。

China, to be sure, is hardly a virtuous or even benign actor on the global stage. Its aggression in the South China Sea, vicious repression in Xinjiang, crackdown on Hong Kong and implacable desire to claim Taiwan — no matter what the Taiwanese people want — pose serious challenges to peace and order in Asia and challenge basic principles of human rights. Its escalating diplomatic spat with Japan, suspending seafood imports and advising Chinese citizens to avoid travel there, demonstrates China’s capacity for menace.

当然，中国在全球舞台上绝非高尚甚至善意的角色。其在南海的强硬姿态、在新疆的残酷镇压、对香港的整治行动，以及不顾台湾民众意愿、执意要吞并台湾的顽固诉求，都对亚洲的和平稳定构成了严峻挑战，也违背了基本人权原则。近期中国与日本的外交争端升级——暂停日本海鲜进口并建议中国公民避免赴日旅游——更是彰显了中国的施压能力。

But these actions, however brutal, fall far short of a fundamental reordering of the world. China seems to be asserting what it views as historical claims and domestic prerogatives within the existing system, bending the rules in ways the United States, especially under Trump, is hardly in a position to protest. The distinction matters: A power defending the status quo, even aggressively, poses different challenges than one seeking to remake the world in its image.

但无论这些行为多么残酷，都远未达到重构世界秩序的程度。中国似乎只是在现有体系内维护自身认为的历史诉求和内政主权，以一种美国（尤其是在特朗普执政时期）几乎没有资格指责的方式曲解规则。这一区别至关重要：一个即便手段强硬但以维护现状为目的的大国，还是一个试图按自身形象重塑世界的大国，这两者所构成的挑战有着本质不同。

It may be outmoded, in any case, to think of a single power superintending the world. “It is not simply that the United States is in relative decline, or even that China is rising, but rather that compared with earlier decades, power is held more widely and by a variety of powers in different regions,” Emma Ashford writes in her bracing new book, “First Among Equals.” “The United States and China are ahead of the pack, but by far less than their Cold War counterparts.” Multipolar complexity, not bipolar confrontation, is the future.

无论如何，认为全球应由单一霸权国主导的想法或许早已过时。“这并非单纯的美国相对衰落或中国崛起，而是相较于前几十年，权力分布更加广泛，由不同地区的多个大国共同掌握，”艾玛·阿什福德在其发人深省的新书《群雄之首》(First Among Equals)中写道。“美国和中国虽领先于其他国家，但领先优势远不及冷战时期的两个超级大国。”多极格局下的复杂平衡而非两极对峙才是未来的趋势。

Trump, it’s fair to say, is not responding well to this reality. Of his wild threats, the recent one suggesting military action against Nigeria — on the grounds that it “continues to allow the killing of Christians” — is perhaps the most symptomatic of his frustration. The United States, of course, has always played by its own set of rules. But Trump has abandoned even a fig leaf of fealty to principle. “It’s one thing to say: There’s some rules of international law that don’t apply to us,” the political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta told me. “It’s another thing to say: I really don’t care what international law is.”

可以说，特朗普并未妥善应对这一现实。在他一系列疯狂威胁中，近期以“持续纵容杀害基督徒”为由扬言对尼日利亚动武的言论或许最能体现他的挫败感。美国向来按自己的规则行事，但特朗普甚至抛弃了表面上对原则的尊重。政治学家普拉塔普·巴努·梅塔对我说：“声称‘某些国际法规则不适用于我们’是一回事，而宣称‘我根本不在乎国际法是什么’则是另一回事。”

Trump or no, the military adventurism of the past two decades has become an unmistakable sign of decline. “If we’re having to maintain primacy by invading this country that’s not posing a threat to us and launching a global campaign of antiterror, clearly, we’re on the decline,” Van Jackson, a progressive foreign policy scholar and an author of “The Rivalry Peril,” told me. “It has always been the case in these cycles of history that when the dominant power starts investing and playing this military role globally, you have rising powers who are stepping up, playing a more important economic role globally.”

无论有没有特朗普，过去20年的军事冒险主义都已成为美国衰落的明显标志。“如果我们必须通过入侵这个并未对我们构成威胁的国家、发动全球反恐战争来维持霸权，那显然我们正在走下坡路，”进步派外交政策学者、《对抗危机》(The Rivalry Peril)作者范·杰克逊指出。“历史周期反复证明，当主导大国开始在全球范围内投入资源，扮演这种军事角色的时候，新兴大国就会崛起，在全球经济中发挥更重要的作用。”

History is littered with examples of the dangers of aggression for declining powers — Spain’s crusading military folly in the 16th century, the late Ottoman Empire’s embrace of ethnic nationalism, Britain’s vain attempt to cling to its unsustainable imperial position between the world wars. Each ended the same way: an astonishingly rapid loss of power and prestige on the global stage.

历史上不乏衰落大国因侵略扩张而覆灭的案例：16世纪西班牙军事圣战式愚行、奥斯曼帝国晚期对民族主义的追捧、两次世界大战之间英国维系摇摇欲坠的帝国地位的无谓尝试。这些案例的结局如出一辙：在全球舞台上迅速丧失权力与声望。

This might not be exactly what’s happening. For all Trump’s threats of military action abroad, with the exception of the brief airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and the bombing of small boats in the Caribbean, he seems most interested in deploying the military to police American citizens. In part, this may be training troops — as he told the military brass — for adventures abroad. But it’s hard not to think that waging battles against people who live in Democrat-governed cities is an end in itself.

当下的局势或许并非完全如此。尽管特朗普频频威胁在海外采取军事行动，但除了对伊朗核设施发动短暂空袭、轰炸加勒比海小型船只外，他似乎更热衷于动用军队管控美国公民。正如他对军方高层所言，这在一定程度上可能是为海外军事冒险练兵。但人们很难不认为，对民主党执政城市的居民发动战争本身也是一个目标。

Likewise, Trump’s aggressive tariff warfare has less to do with the world than it seems. The volley was supposedly about leveling the playing field with countries that are “ripping off” America and punishing countries whose policies harm Americans. (Fentanyl is a prime example.) But the recent Supreme Court arguments over Trump’s use of tariffs made clear that these levies raise cash mostly from Americans, bypassing the constitutional power of the purse vested in Congress. The tariffs, in short, looked global but hit locally.

同样，特朗普激进的关税战与世界关系远不如表面看起来那么密切。这场关税战表面上是为了与那些“欺诈”美国的国家公平竞争，惩罚那些政策损害美国利益的国家（芬太尼问题就是典型例子）。但近期最高法院就特朗普关税政策展开的辩论明确显示，这些关税的成本大多由美国民众承担，同时还绕过了宪法赋予国会的财政决策权。简而言之，这场关税战看似针对全球，实则伤害的是本国。

This leads to an irresistible irony. Far from beating back China, America under Trump may come to resemble it. The country is on its way: obsessed with regime stability and willing to use almost any means to keep its people under control; jealously guarding its near periphery while remaining largely uninterested in leading the world; and building a cult of personality around its autocratic leader in an atmosphere of ethnonationalist triumphalism.

这就形成了一种难以抗拒的讽刺：特朗普政府领导下的美国，非但没有遏制中国，反而可能变得越来越像中国。美国正朝着这个方向发展：痴迷于政权稳定，不惜动用一切手段管控民众；小心翼翼地守护周边势力范围，却对领导全球毫无兴趣；在民族主义的狂热氛围中，围绕专制领导人塑造个人崇拜。

Trump, despite his vituperative campaign rhetoric, has never really been a China hawk, even if some around him have led the charge for more aggressive policies to blunt China’s might. Indeed, he has often lavished praise on Xi Jinping, a man who has the kind of virtually limitless power Trump clearly craves. “President Xi is a great leader of a great country,” Trump cooed at their meeting in South Korea last month.

尽管特朗普在竞选时言辞激烈地抨击中国，但他从未真正成为对华强硬派，即便其身边部分人士一直主张采取更激进的政策遏制中国崛起。事实上，他常常对习近平主席大加赞赏，习近平所拥有的那种近乎不受限制的权力正是特朗普梦寐以求的。“习主席是一个伟大国家的伟大领导人，”上月在韩国会晤时，特朗普曾这样献殷勤。

This praise comes as the United States is retreating from the multilateral bodies that it helped create — the United Nations, the World Health Organization and more. As for the Group of 20 meeting starting this weekend in South Africa, Trump announced months ago that he would not attend and would dispatch Vice President JD Vance instead. Vance has played the role of finger-wagging attack dog, lecturing Europeans about free speech and dressing down President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. One can only imagine what he might have said in Johannesburg.

特朗普的赞美发生在美国接连退出自己协助创立的多边机构（联合国、世界卫生组织等）之际。至于本周末在南非召开的二十国集团峰会，特朗普数月前就宣布不会出席，派遣副总统万斯代为参会。万斯在此前的国际场合一直扮演着严厉批评者的角色，说教欧洲国家要维护言论自由，还当面斥责乌克兰总统泽连斯基。不难想象，他若在约翰内斯堡参会，又会发表怎样的言论。

But we will never know, because Trump abruptly announced this month that the United States would boycott the meeting entirely, preposterously claiming that white South Africans were the victims of persecution and genocidal violence at the hands of the country’s Black majority. “No U.S. Government Official will attend as long as these Human Rights abuses continue,” Trump wrote on social media. Then on Thursday, the administration changed course again, asking to send a small, low-level delegation after all, though it would not participate in the summit discussions.

但我们永远无从知晓了，因为特朗普本月突然宣布美国将全面抵制此次峰会，还荒谬地声称南非白人正遭受黑人多数群体的迫害和种族灭绝式暴力。“只要这些侵犯人权的行为持续下去，美国政府官员就不会出席峰会，”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。然而在周四，美国政府又突然改口，表示派遣一支规模小、级别低的代表团参会，但该代表团不会参与峰会讨论。

China is playing a much longer and more sophisticated game. Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s top emissary, will be in Johannesburg, accompanied by a vast retinue of officials, ready to talk with the world’s major economies about the problems and possibilities of the emerging multipolar order.

中国则在进行一场更具长远眼光、更精妙的博弈。作为习近平主席的首席特使，中国总理李强将率领庞大的官员代表团出席约翰内斯堡峰会，准备与全球主要经济体探讨新兴多极秩序下的挑战与机遇。

As its primacy fades, the United States now faces a choice: meet rising nations as respected partners in building a new, more equitable multipolar world or seek the costly, brittle power that comes from domination. Trump has chosen the latter; China, it seems, seeks the former. History tells us which path leads to peace and prosperity, and which is the road to ruin.

随着美国的霸权地位日渐衰落，如今它面临着一个抉择：要么以受尊重的伙伴身份，与新兴国家携手构建一个更公平的新型多极世界；要么执意追求通过霸权统治获得的、代价高昂且脆弱不堪的权力。特朗普选择了后者，而中国似乎选择了前者。哪条道路通向和平与繁荣，哪条道路终将走向毁灭，历史已经告诉我们。

It is another make-or-break moment of wartime leadership for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

这是乌克兰总统泽连斯基的战时统帅能力面临的又一个成败关头。

Late last week, the Trump administration delivered to Mr. Zelensky a 28-point peace plan that many Ukrainians and their Western allies have called a wish list for Russia, a reward for its aggression and a betrayal of Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader was given seven days to either accept it or potentially watch the United States walk away from any remaining support.

上周末，特朗普政府向泽连斯基递交了一个28点和平方案，许多乌克兰人及其西方盟友称其为一份迎合俄罗斯的愿望清单，是对俄罗斯侵略行径的奖励，也是对乌克兰的背叛。乌克兰领导人被给予七天时间，要么接受这个方案，要么面临美国撤回剩余全部援助的风险。

President Trump appears to be doubling down on his statement earlier this year that Ukraine doesn’t “have the cards” to keep fighting, with Mr. Zelensky’s government now under pressure from battlefield losses and a major corruption scandal. But through nearly four years of war, analysts say, Mr. Zelensky has often played weak hands wisely.

特朗普总统似乎在重申他今年早些时候的说法——乌克兰没有继续战斗的“筹码”——而泽连斯基政府此刻正因前线失利和一起重大的腐败丑闻而承受压力。但分析人士指出，近四年的战火中，泽连斯基时常能将弱势化为优势。

While he has publicly acknowledged that the American proposal poses one of the gravest challenges ever to Ukraine, it has also inadvertently strengthened Mr. Zelensky at home, at least for the time being. The 28-point plan has shifted the focus away from a graft scandal that has reached his inner circle and threatened to paralyze his government, allowing Mr. Zelensky to reprise his most successful role: as rally-er in chief.

尽管他公开承认美国的方案是乌克兰面临的最严峻挑战之一，这份方案却意外地——至少暂时——巩固了他在国内的地位。28点方案转移了公众对涉及总统亲信的贪污丑闻的注意力，这场风波原本可能导致政府瘫痪，如今却让泽连斯基得以重新扮演其最成功的角色：团结全民的领袖。

“When Zelensky is cornered, he tends to go on the offensive,” said Viktor Shlinchak, the head of the Institute of World Policy, an analytical research group.

“当泽连斯基被逼到角落时，他往往会转守为攻，”分析研究机构世界政策研究所所长维克托·什林恰克指出。

Perhaps in his tightest corner yet, Mr. Zelensky must decide how hard to push back on a settlement proposal that could bring a pause in the fighting but make it harder for Ukraine to ensure its long-term survival. To find a way through, he will need strong support from his European partners and the Ukrainian public.

泽连斯基正面临可能是迄今为止最为棘手的局面，对于这份能虽然能带来停战，但会让乌克兰更难确保长期存续的和解方案，他需要决定采取多激烈的反抗。要想破局，他将需要来自欧洲伙伴以及乌克兰民众的强力支持。

Mr. Zelensky, analysts say, has become a skilled political performer in the crucible of war.

分析人士指出，在战争的熔炉里，泽连斯基已淬炼成为一名娴熟的政治表演者。

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Zelensky was nearly three years into an unpopular presidency. A former comedic actor, he was often dismissed as a show-business clown. But his decision to stay in Kyiv, the capital, and film defiant selfie videos on the street as Russia bombed the city helped flip the script. Mr. Zelensky rallied the nation and much of the world to resist, cementing his status as an underdog wartime leader to be reckoned with.

2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，泽连斯基的总统任期已接近第三年的尾声，而他的支持率并不高。作为一名前喜剧演员，他常被人嘲讽为娱乐圈的小丑。但他在俄军轰炸基辅期间坚守首都，在街头拍摄拒不屈服的自拍视频，这一举动帮助他扭转了舆论叙事。泽连斯基成功凝聚全国民心与国际社会支持，奠定了虽不被看好，但也不可小觑的战时领袖地位。

He has since weathered storms that threatened the flow of weapons from allies or his own public support. He staved off catastrophic ammunition shortages by pivoting to drone production at home. He resurrected U.S. support when it flagged over the years, often by making emotional and persistent appeals to lawmakers.

此后他屡次化解危及盟友军援与国内支持率的危机。通过转向国内无人机生产，他化解了弹药短缺困境。每当美国的援助出现松懈时，他往往通过对国会议员进行情感强烈且坚持不懈的呼吁，使美国重新投入支持。

10月，乌克兰东部扎波日里亚地区的一处乌军火力阵地，存储在地下的弹药。泽连斯基成功化解了灾难性的弹药短缺危机，还使美国重新投入支持。

Each time, Mr. Zelensky maneuvered and survived. That was partly the result of skillful messaging, experts say. He has coupled that this year with a playbook of turning to European allies to drum up support whenever he has come under pressure from the Trump administration.

泽连斯基总能在一次次危机中迂回求生。专家表示，这在一定程度上归功于他高明的信息传达方式。而今年，他又将这一方式与另一套做法结合起来：每当受到特朗普政府的压力，他就求助于欧洲盟友来争取支持。

That’s exactly what Mr. Zelensky did in a series of phone calls over the weekend to discuss the 28-point peace plan.

在过去的这个周末，他正是通过一系列电话外交讨论28点和平方案来践行此策。

On Saturday, E.U. countries and Britain, Canada and Japan issued a joint statement demanding changes to the proposal’s most objectionable points for Ukraine, including forcible changes in borders and a reduction in the size of its military. The statement said the U.S. proposal would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.

上周六，欧盟国家与英国、加拿大、日本发表联合声明，要求修改和平方案中最令乌方反感的条款——包括强制变更边界、裁减军队规模等。声明称，美国的提案将让乌克兰遭受未来再次被侵略的威胁。

“I have not seen anybody more effective than him in getting out of Europe what I never thought was possible,” a trend that has been visible since early in the war, said Katarina Mathernova, the E.U. ambassador to Ukraine. Communications, she said, are “his superpower” as he has secured money, weapons and diplomatic backing.

欧盟驻乌克兰大使卡塔琳娜·马瑟诺娃指出：“我从未见过有人像他这样高效地从欧洲争取到那些我原以为不可能得到的东西”，这一趋势自战争初期便已显现。她表示，沟通能力是泽连斯基的“超能力”，正是凭借这种能力，他成功争取到了资金、武器与外交支持。

As Mr. Zelensky was turning to Europe for help, Mr. Trump criticized both on social media on Sunday, in a sign of the challenge facing the Ukrainian leader. “Ukraine ‘leadership’ has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts,” Mr. Trump wrote, “and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.”

就在泽连斯基向欧洲寻求帮助之际，特朗普上周日却在社交媒体上同时对他和欧洲提出了批评，这也显示出泽连斯基面临的挑战。“乌克兰的‘领导层’对我们的努力毫无感激之情，”特朗普写道，“而欧洲仍在继续购买俄罗斯的石油。”

Before the 28-point plan emerged last week, Mr. Zelensky had appeared to be on the political ropes. He had prompted widespread anger in Ukraine by trying to neutralize anti-corruption agencies investigating his associates. After those agencies implicated his allies in a vast kickback scheme, members of Parliament called for a no-confidence vote on his government. Several members of his party broke ranks and demanded the resignation of top officials in his presidential office.

上周28点计划曝光前，泽连斯基的政治前景一度岌岌可危。他因试图压制反腐机构调查其亲信而在乌克兰引发广泛愤怒。在这些机构揭露他的亲信牵涉进一桩巨额回扣案后，议会成员呼吁对政府进行不信任投票。他所在政党的多名成员倒戈，要求数名总统府高级官员辞职。

Then came Mr. Trump’s Thanksgiving deadline for a plan premised on conditions that enraged many Ukrainians, including an offer of amnesty for war crimes. Mr. Zelensky seized the moment.

接下来就是特朗普设下的感恩节最后期限，要求乌克兰接受一份包含赦免战争罪犯等激怒乌克兰民众条款的方案。泽连斯基抓住了这个时机。

He has moved to rally both the country’s European allies who have steadfastly stood by him and Ukrainians whose political support for him has waned. On Friday night, Mr. Zelensky released a video with a familiar message set against a heavily symbolic backdrop. From the same street where he defiantly filmed a video on the second day of the invasion, Mr. Zelensky nearly four years later issued a fresh rallying cry.

他开始动员那些始终支持他的欧洲盟友，以及支持度正在下降的乌克兰民众。上周五晚间，泽连斯基发布了一段视频，以一个充满象征意义的背景传递出一条熟悉的讯息。从他在入侵第二天拍下那段抗争视频的同一条街道上，近四年之后，泽连斯基再次发出了新的集结号令。

“I am addressing all Ukrainians now,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Our people, citizens, politicians, everyone. We need to pull ourselves together. Regain our senses. Quit the squabbling. Stop the political game.”

“我现在是对全体乌克兰人民讲话，”泽连斯基说。“我们的人民、公民、政治人士，每一个人。我们必须重整旗鼓。恢复理智。停止内讧。停止政治博弈。”

He presented the settlement proposal as a stark choice between forgoing American backing or losing Ukraine’s “dignity” by acquiescing to Russia’s terms. He prepared Ukrainians for possible concessions while dissociating himself from the plan by highlighting the American pressure.

他将这份和平方案塑造成一个非此即彼的抉择：要么失去美国的支持，要么接受俄罗斯的条件而丧失乌克兰的“尊严”。他一方面让乌克兰民众为可能的让步做好心理准备，一方面又通过强调美国方面的施压，从而使自己与这份方案保持距离。

在乌克兰西部城市捷尔诺波尔，一栋居民楼上周遭俄军袭击后，人们为失踪者守夜。泽连斯基说：“我们的人民、公民、政治人士，每一个人。我们必须重整旗鼓。”

Analysts have noted that Ukrainians over the course of the war have been willing to table their domestic political frustrations in the face of what they see as an existential threat.

分析人士指出，在这场战争过程中，乌克兰人往往愿意将国内政治分歧暂搁一旁，因为在他们看来国家正面临存亡威胁。

Ukrainians are likely to support Mr. Zelensky in the negotiations because he is “the only official representative of Ukraine who embodies the majority’s conviction that we cannot sign a capitulation proposed by Russia,” Mr. Shlinchak, the policy analyst, said.

政策分析师什林恰克表示，乌克兰民众大概率会支持泽连斯基谈判，因为“作为乌克兰唯一合法代表，他凝聚着全民共识——我们绝不能签署俄罗斯提出的投降书”。

“We have no other legitimate leader,” he added. “And because of that, we have no alternative.”

他补充道：“我们没有其他合法领导人。正因为如此，我们也别无选择。”

For evidence of China’s prominence at the United Nations climate summit in Brazil, look no further than the convention hall, where China boasts one of the largest pavilions, prominently located in the center next to the host country.

若论中国在巴西举办的联合国气候大会上的重要地位，只需看看会场就够了，中国在那里拥有大会规模最大的展位之一，占据着紧邻东道国展位的中心显要位置。

Before a fire tore through part of the Pavilion Hall on Thursday, throngs converged daily at China’s exhibition area to pick up panda-themed tote bags, listen to energy experts and admire displays of China’s global investments in clean energy: a solar farm in the Gobi Desert, battery storage in Saudi Arabia, transmission lines in Egypt and Brazil.

周四展馆部分区域发生火灾前，每天都有很多人涌向中国展位，领取熊猫主题手提袋、聆听能源专家演讲，同时驻足参观中国在全球清洁能源领域的投资成果展示，包括戈壁沙漠的太阳能电站、沙特阿拉伯的储能电池项目，以及埃及和巴西的输电线路工程。

China is on its way to becoming the first electrostate, leading the world in electricity generated by wind and solar power and selling that technology, along with electric vehicles, to much of the world.

中国正朝着全球首个电力主导型国家的目标稳步迈进，其风电和太阳能发电量稳居世界第一，同时向全球很多地方出口相关技术及电动汽车。

But behind closed doors in the negotiating rooms at the U.N. summit, where nations are wrestling with how to move away from fossil fuels, China has been mostly quiet.

然而，在联合国气候大会闭门谈判室内，各国围绕如何摆脱化石燃料展开激烈博弈，中国却大多时候保持沉默。

It is not stepping into the vacuum that was created when the Trump administration decided to pull the United States from the climate talks for the first time in 30 years. It has avoided strong positions on the need to prevent the planet from dangerously warming. It is not promising to more aggressively reduce the greenhouse gases it generates, nor is it pushing other nations to do so. And it has declined to offer more money to help poor countries cope climate change or to invest in effort to save tropical forests.

特朗普政府30年来首次退出气候谈判后留下了领导力真空，但中国并未选择填补这一空缺。它既未就阻止全球气候危险变暖这一关键议题表明强硬立场，也未承诺进一步加大温室气体减排力度，同时亦未敦促他国采取行动。此外，中国拒绝额外提供资金助力贫困国家应对气候变化或投入热带雨林保护工作。

As the world gathering headed into its final stretch, analysts said China was showing little interest in taking up the mantle of global climate leader.

随着这个全球大会进入最后阶段，分析人士指出，中国对接手全球气候领导者角色兴趣寥寥。

“It is frustrating,” said Natalie Unterstell, the president of Talanoa, a Brazilian climate research organization. “We would like to see a high-ambition China.”

“这令人失望，”巴西气候研究机构塔拉诺瓦总裁娜塔莉·翁特斯特尔说，“我们原本期待看到一个雄心勃勃的中国。”

One reason appears to be self-interest.

背后的一个原因似乎是自身利益考量。

The United Nations climate body classifies China as a developing country, even though it is the world’s second-largest economy. The Chinese have strongly resisted any change to that status, which would allow it to be grouped with rich, industrialized nations. That would put more pressure on China to enact deeper cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions or provide financial help to poorer countries struggling with climate disruption.

尽管中国已是全球第二大经济体，但联合国气候机构仍将其归类为发展中国家。中国坚决反对改变这一身份。若被划入富裕工业化国家阵营，届时需承担更大幅度的温室气体减排压力，还需向受气候问题困扰的贫困国家提供经济援助。

In the real world, the Chinese have provided billions of dollars in loans and grants to poorer countries to help them deal with climate change and to transition to renewable energy. But its delegation at Belém objects to any language that might result in the United Nations requiring, or even asking, it to provide such aid.

现实中，中国已向贫困国家提供了数十亿美元的贷款和无偿援助，助力其应对气候变化、向可再生能源转型。但在贝伦会议上，中国代表团明确反对联合国任何可能强制（甚至只是建议）其提供此类援助的表述。

When it comes to the most contentious issue in Belém, whether nations will enact a so-called road map for transitioning away from fossil fuels, China has been quiet, diplomats said.

外交官透露，本次贝伦气候大会最具争议的议题是各国是否制定摆脱化石燃料的所谓路线图，而中国在这一问题上始终保持缄默。

Even though China is currently the planet’s biggest polluter, it “has a strongly-held view that climate change is a problem caused by developed countries, and that they should lead the way,” said Kaveh Guilanpour, a vice president at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a nonprofit group that is following the negotiations in Belém.

尽管中国目前是全球最大污染排放国，但它“坚定认为，气候变化是发达国家造成的问题，理应由发达国家率先牵头解决”，追踪本次谈判的非营利组织气候与能源解决方案中心副总裁卡维·吉兰普尔表示。

南京长江沿岸的煤堆。

China’s own plan to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions has been criticized as insufficient. The European Union climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, called it “disappointing,” and former Biden administration officials in Belém said it did not do nearly enough to limit dangerous warming.

中国自身的温室气体减排计划也被外界批评为力度不足。欧盟气候委员沃普克·霍克斯特拉称其“令人失望”，参会的前拜登政府官员也表示，该计划远未达到遏制危险升温的要求。

Representatives of the Chinese delegation did not respond to interview requests.

中国代表团未回应采访请求。

At the same time, China has enjoyed positive publicity merely by continuing to participate in the U.N. climate negotiations. It has also presented itself as stable partner in global discussions. The Chinese state-owned newspaper Global Times declared that the country had “become the defender of international cooperation on climate change.”

与此同时，中国仅凭持续参与联合国气候谈判就获得了积极舆论评价，更将自身塑造成全球对话中的稳定伙伴。中国官方报纸《环球时报》宣称，中国已“成为气候变化国际合作的捍卫者”。

Its leaders have chided both the United States, where the Trump administration is doing nothing to tackle climate change, as well as the Europeans, who are struggling to meet their promises to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that are dangerously heating the planet.

中国领导人还对美国和欧洲提出了批评：特朗普政府在应对气候变化方面毫无作为，而欧洲各国则难以兑现减少导致地球危险升温的二氧化碳排放这一承诺。

“China is a country that honors its commitments,” Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, said pointedly ahead of the formal deliberations.

“中国言必信，行必果，”中国国务院副总理丁薛祥在正式审议开始前明确表态。

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat who is the U.S. federal official to the talks in Belém, said China’s prominence at COP30 underscored how much the Trump administration is ceding the clean energy economy to Beijing.

出席贝伦会议的美国联邦官员、罗德岛州民主党参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯表示，中国在第30届联合国气候变化大会上的突出地位，凸显出特朗普政府正将清洁能源经济的主导权拱手让给中国。

“They are clearly relishing being the primary economy and country present in our absence,” he said.

“在我们缺席时，他们显然享受成为首要经济体和主导国家的地位，”他说。

Environmental groups here have heaped praise on China and noted that the United States is the country that has added the most carbon dioxide to the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution and that, under the Trump administration, it is withdrawing from the 2015 Paris accord, the global agreement to fight climate change. At the same time, they point out, United States is increasing its use of fossil fuels.

参会的环保组织对中国大加赞赏，同时指出：自工业革命以来，美国是全球累计二氧化碳排放量最多的国家；如今，特朗普政府退出了2015年达成的全球应对气候变化协议《巴黎协定》；与此同时，环保人士强调，美国还在不断增加化石燃料的使用量。

“The largest historic polluter has exited the Paris Agreement,” said Avantika Goswami, who leads the climate program at the Centre for Science and Environment, a research group based in New Delhi. “We are seeing China be a leader.”

“这个历史上最大的污染排放国已经退出了《巴黎协定》，而我们看到中国正在发挥领导作用，”新德里科研机构科学与环境中心气候项目负责人阿万提卡·戈斯瓦米说。

China’s top issue in Belém has less to do with leading other nations and more with its own economic interests.

中国在贝伦气候大会上的首要议题，与其说是引领各国，不如说是维护自身经济利益。

Specifically, China wants to eliminate European and other tariffs it sees as a barrier to selling its solar panels, electric vehicles and other exports to global markets. And, it has argued here that if countries are serious about more quickly bringing down emissions, they should make it easier for China to sell its green products.

具体而言，中国希望解除欧洲等地区对其太阳能板、电动汽车等出口产品的关税壁垒。中国在会议上主张，各国若真心想加快减排进程，就应给中国绿色产品的全球销售创造更便利的条件。

“From a soft power perspective I don’t believe China has been ready to play a larger role or even to replace the vacuum left by the U.S.,” said Zou Ji, president of Energy Foundation China, an organization that works with the Chinese government on climate change issues, and a former member of China’s climate negotiating team.

“从软实力角度来看，我认为中国尚未准备好扮演更重要的角色，甚至没想过填补美国留下的空缺，”能源基金会中国区总裁邹骥表示。他曾是中国气候谈判代表团成员，该机构长期与中国政府合作推进气候相关工作。

Instead, he said, it is leading by selling solar panels, EVs and batteries cheaper and more accessible for the rest of the world.

他指出，中国的领导力体现在另一个层面：以更优惠的价格、更便捷的获取方式，向全球出售太阳能电池板、电动汽车和电池产品。

“China’s rise as a global economic and industrial power is unfolding far more rapidly than the pace of U.N. politics,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“中国作为全球经济和工业大国的崛起速度，远远超过联合国政治的进程，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕说。

Inside a crowded convention center in South Korea last month, Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, beamed as she met China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for the first time. Mr. Xi smiled back, a rare display of warmth between the rival countries.

上个月，在韩国一个座无虚席的会展中心里，日本新任首相高市早苗与中国国家主席习近平首次会面，高市笑容满面。习近平也回以微笑——在这两个存在嫌隙的国家之间，这是难得一见的温暖场面。

Only a few weeks later, the relationship has come undone. Mr. Xi has unleashed a wave of reprisals against Japan over a recent comment by Ms. Takaichi about defending Taiwan, a self-governed democracy that Beijing considers part of its territory.

但仅仅几周之后，两国关系便急转直下。由于高市早苗近日关于保卫台湾的言论，习近平对日本采取了一系列报复措施。台湾是一个自治的民主政体，但北京视其为中国领土的一部分。

The dispute poses an early test for Ms. Takaichi, who took office late last month, the first woman to serve as prime minister in Japan’s history. As a lawmaker, she was a vocal critic of Mr. Xi, criticizing China’s militarization of the South China Sea and visiting Taiwan to show solidarity with its leaders.

对于上月底刚刚上任的日本首位女首相高市早苗而言，此次争端构成了一项早期考验。高市在担任议员时期是习近平的公开批评者，曾抨击中国在南海的军事化举动，也曾访问台湾以表达对其领导人的支持。

Now, with the crisis threatening to overwhelm her nascent administration, Ms. Takaichi’s task, analysts say, is to avoid an escalation while still projecting strength at home.

分析人士指出，如今这场危机有可能压倒她刚起步的政府。高市当前的任务是避免局势升级，同时还要在国内展现强硬姿态。

“Nobody expected that her tenure would begin with a full-blown row with China,” said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “The challenge now is how to de-escalate without caving to China, or appearing to back down in a way that would weaken her domestically.”

“没人想到她的任期会以一场与中国的全面争端开场，”位于华盛顿的布鲁金斯学会亚洲政策研究中心主任米雷娅·索利斯说。“现在的挑战是，如何在不向中国让步的情况下缓和局势，也不能表现得退缩，否则会削弱她在国内的支持。”

The flare-up shows no signs of easing. The Chinese government has urged its citizens not to visit Japan, potentially sapping a major source of tourism, and Beijing signaled this week that it might move to restrict imports of Japanese seafood. China also dispatched Coast Guard ships to patrol near islands that both countries claim and warned Chinese students in Japan about what it said were risks to their safety.

这场冲突毫无缓和迹象。中国政府已敦促公民不要赴日旅行，这可能削弱日本重要的旅游收入来源；北京本周还暗示可能限制日本海产品进口。中国还派遣海警船前往中日双方声称拥有主权的争议岛屿附近巡逻，并提醒在日本的中国留学生注意所谓安全风险。

More reprisals could still come; China has a record of economic coercion. During a dispute in 2010, China limited the export of critical minerals to Japan, including rare earth metals. Chinese state media urged boycotts of South Korean companies operating in mainland China in 2017 when punishing South Korea over its embrace of an American missile defense system.

报复措施可能尚不止于此。中国有实施经济胁迫的记录。在2010年的一场争端中，中国限制向日本出口包括稀土金属在内的重要矿物。2017年，北京方面因韩国部署美制反导系统而惩罚它，当时的中国官方媒体曾号召抵制在华经营的韩国企业。

“China has a playbook on how to apply pressure, and they’re going chapter by chapter,” Ms. Solís said. “The Chinese are not offering any off-ramp. The question is, what is the end game?”

“中国对如何施压有一套完整的剧本，他们正按部就班地执行，”索利斯说。“中国没有提供任何缓和途径。问题是：他们的最终目的是什么？”

The latest dispute began on Nov. 7, when Ms. Takaichi was fielding questions before the Diet, Japan’s Parliament. A lawmaker from a rival party asked her about potential “survival-threatening situations,” a classification that, under Japanese law, allows the deployment of the country’s military forces.

这场最新争端始于11月7日。当时高市早苗在国会接受质询。来自在野党的议员问她关于“存亡危机事态”的问题——根据日本法律，此类事态认定允许日本部署自卫队。

Ms. Takaichi said an attempt by China to blockade or seize Taiwan, which lies less than 70 miles from Japanese territory and sits astride shipping lanes vital for Japan’s economic survival, could qualify.

高市表示，如果中国试图封锁或夺取台湾，就可能构成“存亡危机事态”。台湾距离日本领土约110公里，且处于对日本经济命脉至关重要的航道上。

“If it involves the use of warships and the use of force, I believe that this could constitute an existential threat, no matter how you look at it,” she told Parliament.

“如果涉及军舰和武力的使用，不管从哪个角度看，我认为这都可能构成存亡危机，”她在国会说。

日本广岛县吴市海军基地，摄于今年。高市早苗表示，若中国试图夺取台湾，就可能构成“存亡危机事态”，从而有理由部署自卫队。

Previous Japanese prime ministers, including Shinzo Abe, Ms. Takaichi’s political mentor, had avoided specifying how they would respond if China moved against Taiwan.

包括高市的政治导师安倍晋三在内，此前的日本首相均避免具体说明若中国对台采取行动将作何反应。

Ms. Takaichi later said her remarks did not constitute a change in policy. But her comments provoked a furious response in China, with officials demanding a retraction.

高市后来表示，她的言论并未构成政策改变。但她的表态仍引发了中国的强烈反应，要求她撤回言论。

“Taiwan is China’s Taiwan,” Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, said at a news conference on Thursday. “Taiwan is none of Japan’s business.”

“台湾是中国的台湾，”中国外交部发言人毛宁周四在记者会上说。“台湾是否有事，根本不是日本的事。”

China and Japan have feuded for decades, largely because of the legacy of World War II, when the Japanese army committed atrocities, including the 1937 Nanjing Massacre, crimes for which Beijing believes Tokyo has never sufficiently apologized.

中日两国数十年来一直龃龉不断，主要源于二战历史遗留问题，包括日本军队在1937年南京大屠杀中犯下的暴行，北京认为东京从未就此做出充分的道歉。

Even before Ms. Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, there were signs that Mr. Xi’s government was eager to increase pressure on Tokyo. China has been fanning anti-Japanese sentiment this fall as it commemorates the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

甚至在高市发表有关台湾的言论之前，已有迹象显示习近平政府有意加大对日本的施压。今年秋天，在纪念二战结束80周年之际，中国一直在煽动反日情绪。

“China was primed to respond,” said Bonny Lin, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But I don’t think anyone quite predicted the extent of the escalation.”

“中国原本就准备好做出强烈回应，”战略与国际研究中心中国实力项目主任林洋说。“但恐怕没人预料到升级会到现在这种程度。”

When Ms. Takaichi met Mr. Xi in South Korea, for a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, she raised issues including China’s movements in the South China Sea and human rights abuses.

在韩国参加亚太经合组织峰会期间，高市早苗在与习近平会面时提出了包括中国在南海的行动和人权问题等议题。

Ms. Takaichi, who is grappling with a variety of domestic challenges, seems eager to let the dispute pass. She has ignored calls by some in her party to deport a Chinese diplomat stationed in Japan who recently issued a violent threat against her on social media. After the initial storm over her remarks, she told lawmakers she would refrain from “making explicit statements on specific scenarios.”

在国内面临多重挑战的高市似乎急于平息这场争端。她无视了党内一些人士要求驱逐一名驻日中国外交官的呼声，这名外交官近期在社交媒体上对她发出暴力威胁。在最初的舆论风暴过后，她对议员表示，今后将避免对具体情境作出“明确陈述”。

But it could be a long time before tensions calm. Ms. Takaichi’s party, the Liberal Democratic Party, lacks the back channels it once had to the Chinese government. The L.D.P. recently had a falling out with Komeito, its main coalition partner, which had served as a conduit to China.

但紧张关系可能难以在短期内平息。高市所属的自民党已经失去了以往与中国政府沟通的渠道。自民党近期与其主要执政联盟伙伴公明党关系破裂，公明党过去一直是与中国沟通的纽带。

“The Chinese are digging in, and Takaichi is unwilling to retract,” Ms. Lin said. “In the short term, there is no obvious way out.”

“中方态度强硬，高市也不愿退让，”林洋说。“短期内看不到明显的出路。”

It would not be a stretch to describe this period of hyperactive growth in the tech industry as a historic moment.

将科技行业这段异常活跃的增长期称为历史性时刻并不为过。

Nvidia, which makes computer chips that are essential to building artificial intelligence, said on Wednesday that its quarterly profit jumped to nearly $32 billion, up 65 percent from a year ago and 245 percent from the year before that.

周三，生产构建人工智能所必需芯片的英伟达表示，其季度利润跃升至近320亿美元，同比增长65%，较两年前增长245%。

Just three weeks ago, Nvidia became the first publicly traded company to be worth $5 trillion. Microsoft, Google, Apple and Amazon are also now valued in the trillions. In their most recent quarters, the four companies reported more than $110 billion in combined profits.

就在三周前，英伟达成为首家市值突破5万亿美元的上市公司。微软、谷歌、苹果和亚马逊目前市值也都达到了数万亿美元。这四家企业最近季度录得总利润超过1100亿美元。

“There’s been a lot of talk about an A.I. bubble,” said Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, after his company’s blowout quarterly report. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

“关于人工智能泡沫的讨论不绝于耳，”英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在公司交出漂亮的季报后表示。“但从我们的视角看，情况截然不同。”

But some industry insiders say there is something ominous lurking behind all this bubbly news. They look at the same eye-popping growth and the same stunning wealth creation as Mr. Huang and see a house of cards. And they say it is hard to know what the damage will be if it collapses.

但一些业内人士表示，所有这些看似美好的消息背后都隐藏着不祥之兆。他们与黄仁勋目睹了同样的增长与财富奇迹，却认为这是脆弱的纸牌屋。他们表示，如果崩塌，由此造成的破坏将难以估量。

Even Nvidia’s growth can be explained away. Demand for the company’s chips doesn’t mean people want to use A.I. It merely means that companies are building giant A.I. systems in hopes someone will pay to use them. The Nvidia-led rally on Wall Street lasted only a few hours, after all, and the company’s share price was down about 3 percent at the end of trading on Thursday. A sharp reversal in tech stocks pulled the whole market lower, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6 percent for the day.

就连英伟达的增长也并非无懈可击。市场对其芯片的需求并不意味着人们想使用人工智能，而是仅表明企业正在斥巨资构建人工智能系统，寄望于未来能吸引付费用户。英伟达引领的华尔街涨势仅维持数小时，截至周四收盘该公司股价下跌约3%。科技股大幅回调拖累整个市场，标普500指数当日下挫1.6%。

英伟达强劲的季度业绩曾短暂缓解华尔街对人工智能巨大开支的担忧。

The heart of the pessimist’s case against the A.I. boom, however, is the money pouring into the start-up world and the billions upon billions those companies are spending on data centers.

不过，对人工智能热潮持悲观态度者持有的核心论点是，巨额资金正涌入相关初创企业，而这些公司在数据中心上的支出惊人。

OpenAI, the company that kicked off the boom three years ago, is now worth an estimated $500 billion, making it the most valuable start-up in the world. Anthropic, OpenAI’s archrival, is now worth an estimated $183 billion. And Thinking Machines Labs, which was started in February, is already believed to be valued in the tens of billions of dollars.

三年前引爆这场热潮的OpenAI目前估值约5000亿美元，是全球最有价值的初创企业。OpenAI的主要竞争对手Anthropic目前估值约1830亿美元。今年2月才创立的Thinking Machines Labs据信估值也已达到数百亿美元。

OpenAI is not profitable and doesn’t expect to be until 2030. Anthropic is also in the red. Thinking Machines just put out its first product.

OpenAI目前尚未盈利，而且预计2030年前都难以实现收支平衡。Anthropic同样处于亏损状态。Thinking Machines则刚刚推出首款产品。

That hasn’t stopped them from spending. Anthropic recently said it would invest $50 billion in new data centers. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s celebrity chief executive, said his company was committed to spending $1.4 trillion on computing power for its A.I. pursuits.

但这并没有阻止它们烧钱。Anthropic近日宣布将投资500亿美元用于新数据中心的建设。OpenAI的明星首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼则表示，公司将为其人工智能事业投入1.4万亿美元用于算力。

“What OpenAI is engaged in is the most dramatic case of ‘Fake It Until You Make It’ that we have ever seen,” said Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson. “They are making huge commitments that they literally can’t afford.”

“OpenAI现在做的事情，是我们见过最夸张的‘一直假装下去直到成真’的案例，”D.A. Davidson的科技研究负责人吉尔·卢里亚说。“他们做出的承诺巨大，实际上根本无力承担。”

OpenAI and its partners are pumping $500 billion into new data centers in the United States as part of what they call Project Stargate. In today’s dollars, that is enough to fund the Manhattan Project 15 times over. It could pay for the entire Apollo moon project. Twice.

OpenAI与其合作伙伴正斥资5000亿美元在美国兴建新一代数据中心，若按当前币值计算，这个所谓的“星门计划”足以支持15次曼哈顿计划的全部开支，甚至能支付两次完整的阿波罗登月计划。

“Stargate alone — if it does actually reach $500 billion — would be the largest infrastructure project in the world, several times over,” said Evan Conrad, chief executive of San Francisco Compute, a start-up that specializes in hardware for A.I.

“仅星门计划本身——如果其规模真的达到5000亿美元——就将是世界上最大的基础设施项目，而且超越现有纪录数倍，”San Francisco Compute的首席执行官埃文·康拉德说道，该公司是一家专注于人工智能硬件的初创企业。

Tech companies, governments and their partners around the world will spend nearly $3 trillion on data centers by 2028, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. To make that happen, they will borrow nearly a trillion dollars from banks and other financial institutions.

据摩根士丹利的分析师预测，到2028年，全球的科技公司、各国政府及其合作伙伴将在数据中心的投入近3万亿美元。为了实现这一目标，他们需从银行和其他金融机构借贷近1万亿美元。

Over the last 12 months, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta spent about $360 billion on new data centers. With their huge profits, they can afford it. Other companies have to take on debt. That includes established companies like the software maker Oracle and smaller outfits with names like CoreWeave and Nebius.

过去12个月里，谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta在新数据中心上投入约为3600亿美元。凭借巨额利润，它们负担得起这种开支。其他公司则不得不举债投入。这其中有甲骨文这样的老牌企业，也有CoreWeave、Nebius等较小的公司。

Because that debt is held by a wide array of financial institutions — including private credit lenders as well as traditional banks — experts are struggling to understand how much risk is in the system.

由于这些债务分散在众多金融机构——包括私人信贷机构与传统银行——专家们难以准确评估整个系统中究竟蕴含多少风险。

Adding to worries, critics say some of the deals OpenAI has made with chipmakers, cloud computing companies and others are oddly circular. OpenAI is set to receive billions from tech companies but also sends billions back to the same companies to pay for computing power and other services.

更令人担忧的是，批评者指出OpenAI与芯片制造商、云计算公司等达成的交易存在奇特的资金循环现象。OpenAI在获得科技巨头数十亿美元注资的同时，又向同一批企业支付等量资金以获取算力等服务。

Some financial analysts worry that these deals make the market look stronger than it really is. Ultimately, the health of the market will depend on whether companies like OpenAI can turn a profit before debt overwhelms them.

一些金融分析师担心，这类交易正在制造市场繁荣的假象。最终，市场的稳定性将取决于像OpenAI这样的公司能否在被债务压垮前实现盈利。

(The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied the suit’s claims.)

（《纽约时报》已起诉OpenAI和微软，指控其人工智能系统侵犯新闻内容版权。OpenAI和微软均否认相关指控。）

Nvidia has also made some deals that have raised questions about whether the company is paying itself. It announced that it would invest $100 billion in OpenAI. The start-up receives that money as it buys or leases Nvidia’s chips.

英伟达的某些交易引发了同样的质疑。该公司宣布将向OpenAI投入1000亿美元，而这些资金最终会通过采购或租赁英伟达芯片的方式回流至该公司。

On Tuesday, Nvidia announced a similar $10 billion deal with Anthropic, which will buy $30 billion in A.I. computing backed by Nvidia chips. That money will actually go to buy computing power from Microsoft, which also invested $5 billion in Anthropic.

周二，英伟达宣布与Anthropic达成100亿美元的类似协议，后者将采购价值300亿美元、由英伟达芯片支持的人工智能算力。这笔资金实际将用于从微软购买算力，而微软也向Anthropic注资50亿美元。

Goldman Sachs has estimated that Nvidia will make 15 percent of its sales next year from what critics also call circular deals.

高盛估计，英伟达明年的销售额中有15%将来自批评者所称的“自我循环交易”。

A.I. companies’ chatbots and image generators are already being used by hundreds of millions of people. Many of them pay monthly fees that can top $100. But it’s not so clear that business customers — the real cash cow for the tech industry — are as keen to use A.I.

人工智能公司开发的聊天机器人与图像生成器已吸引数亿用户，其中不少人每月支付超过100美元的服务费。但作为科技行业真正利润支柱的企业客户是否同样热衷采用人工智能技术仍存疑问。

Nearly eight in 10 businesses have said they have used A.I. technologies. Just as many have said these technologies had “no significant bottom-line impact,” according to recent research from McKinsey & Company.

麦肯锡的最新研究显示，近八成企业声称已应用人工智能技术，但同等比例的企业表示这些技术对其“利润没有显著影响”。

Sundar Pichai, the chief executive of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, said in an interview with the BBC this week that the spending and skyrocketing valuations were driven at least in part by “irrationality.” If the market crashes, he said, the damage will be widespread. “I think no company is going to be immune, including us,” he said.

谷歌母公司Alphabet的首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊本周在接受BBC采访时表示，这些支出和飙升的估值至少部分源于“非理性因素”。他警告称若市场崩盘，冲击将十分广泛。“我认为没有公司能幸免，我们也不例外，”他说。

Tech industry veterans often compare the A.I. boom to the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. When that bubble burst, hundreds of start-ups disappeared and established companies that were selling technology to those young outfits experienced huge losses. But other start-ups found lasting success and did, in fact, change the world — most notably Amazon and Google.

科技行业资深人士常将当前人工智能热潮与1990年代的互联网泡沫相提并论。当年的泡沫破裂时，数百家初创公司消失，而那些向新兴企业提供技术支持的成熟公司也遭受重创。但也有部分初创公司获得了持久成功，并深刻改变了世界——最著名的例子是亚马逊和谷歌。

“When bubbles happen, smart people get over-excited about a kernel of truth,” Mr. Altman told reporters earlier this year. “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are over-excited about A.I.? My opinion is yes. Is A.I. the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.”

“当泡沫形成时，聪明人总会因一个具有合理价值的核心而过度兴奋，”奥尔特曼今年早些时候对记者表示。“当前投资者整体是否对人工智能过度追捧？我的看法是肯定的。人工智能是否是这个时代最具变革性的技术？我的答案同样是肯定的。”

The Treasury Department says Americans have lost more than $16.6 billion to an online scam industry largely based in Southeast Asia that targets victims around the world.

美国财政部表示，一个主要以东南亚为基地、面向全球作案的网络诈骗产业已导致美国民众损失超过166亿美元。

Scam centers rely on forced labor, and they proliferated during the pandemic. By some estimates they take in at least $64 billion a year.

这些依靠强迫劳动的诈骗窝点，在新冠大流行期间大量涌现。据部分估算，该产业每年获利至少640亿美元。

The authorities in several countries have been trying to rescue people who were kidnapped and enslaved to work as scammers. But even though the United States and Britain recently imposed sanctions on a Cambodian company accused of running a major scam operation, experts say it will take a lot more work to build cases against the criminal syndicates powering the industry.

多个国家当局正试图解救那些被绑架、被迫沦为诈骗工具的受害者。尽管美国和英国近期对一家被控运营大型诈骗网络的柬埔寨公司实施了制裁，但专家表示，要对支撑该产业的犯罪集团提起诉讼，还需付出更多努力。

Here’s how centers work and why they’re so hard to shut down:

以下是这些诈骗窝点的运作模式及难以被彻底取缔的原因：

Scammers target victims by winning their trust on social media.

诈骗者通过社交媒体获取信任，精准锁定受害者

Southeast Asia’s online fraudsters specialize in “pig butchering,” a process in which a scammer builds trust with a victim over weeks or months before asking them to invest in a fraudulent cryptocurrency fund. In that sense they are like farmers fattening pigs for slaughter.

东南亚网络诈骗分子擅长“杀猪盘”诈骗——诈骗者先用数周或数月时间与受害者建立信任，再诱骗其投资虚假加密货币基金。从这个意义上说，其运作模式恰似养殖户育肥待宰的猪。

The victim often receives a message from someone posing as a financial adviser on Facebook, WhatsApp or Telegram. Then the scammer instructs the person to transfer money through a website pretending to be a legitimate investment platform. In 2023, the president of a small bank in Kansas did just that, losing about $47 million of the bank’s money to pig butchers.

受害者通常会在Facebook、WhatsApp或Telegram上收到伪装成财务顾问的人的信息，随后诈骗者会指示其通过伪装成正规投资平台的网站转账。2023年，堪萨斯州某小型银行行长因此损失约4700万美元银行资金，沦为杀猪盘骗局的受害者。

柬埔寨国家通讯社周四发布的一张资料照片显示金边某诈骗中心内的电脑设备。

Fraudsters also use romance scams, in which they cajole people who are divorced or recently widowed to send large sums of money after a brief courtship. Sometimes, they simply call targets on the phone, posing as bank representatives to ask for account details, pin codes and Social Security numbers.

诈骗分子还会针对离异或近期丧偶人士实施情感骗局，经过短暂追求后诱骗受害者转账巨额资金。有时，他们也会直接打电话给目标对象，伪装成银行工作人员索要账户详情、密码和社保号码。

Operators can target victims around the world because they use scammers who are native speakers. Chinese nationals are the largest group trafficked by criminal gangs to Southeast Asian scam compounds, according to Interpol. The facilities also have Brazilians, Indians, Filipinos and people from parts of Africa and Eastern Europe.

由于诈骗窝点雇佣母语使用者，因此能将目标对准全球受害者。据国际刑警组织称，中国人是被犯罪团伙贩卖至东南亚诈骗园区的最大群体，此外还有巴西人、印度人、菲律宾人以及非洲和东欧部分地区的民众。

Scam centers run on a steady supply of labor and electricity.

诈骗中心依赖稳定的劳动力和电力供应运转。

Many of the sprawling compounds that house scam operations sit inside special economic zones created by governments in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar to attract foreign investment. The zones mostly lie along borders with Thailand, giving criminals easy access to that country’s reliable electricity and telecommunications networks.

许多规模庞大的诈骗园区位于柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸政府为吸引外资设立的经济特区内。这些特区大多沿泰国边境分布，使犯罪分子能便捷获取泰国稳定的电力和电信网络。

The operators also use Thai airports and roads to deliver supplies and traffic workers. In many cases, workers are lured to Thailand to take what they think are jobs in customer service or information technology. But after they land in Bangkok, they are taken across Thailand’s porous borders, imprisoned in compounds, and often subjected to physical abuse and torture.

诈骗运营者还利用泰国的机场和道路运输物资和工作人员。在很多案例中，受害者被诱骗至泰国，以为能获得客服或信息技术相关工作，但抵达曼谷后，他们会被带过管控松散的泰国边境，囚禁在诈骗园区内，还常遭受人身虐待和酷刑。

Myanmar’s borderlands are a particularly fertile spot for these centers. The country is in the middle of a civil war. Independent experts say the Myanmar military and armed ethnic groups provide protection in exchange for a cut of the profits. The military government has denied any involvement with the scam groups, saying it was “actively” working against them.

缅甸边境地区尤其成为这类诈骗窝点的温床。该国正处于内战之中，独立专家表示缅甸军方和民族武装组织在为诈骗集团提供保护，以换取利润分成。缅甸军政府否认与诈骗集团有任何关联，声称正在“积极”打击相关犯罪。

缅甸东部妙瓦底的一处园区，摄于9月。园区似乎安装了星链卫星终端。缅甸军政府表示已经突袭了位于泰缅边境地区最大的诈骗据点之一。

These multistory compounds are in Myanmar towns that sit flush against the banks of a narrow river marking the border with Thailand — so close that you can hear the hum of generators from the Thai side. From the outside, they look like ordinary office buildings and condominiums.

这些多层建筑构成的诈骗园区位于缅甸边境城镇，紧邻分隔缅泰两国的狭窄河岸，距离之近，甚至从泰国一侧都能听到园区发电机的嗡嗡声。从外部看，它们与普通办公楼和公寓楼别无二致。

Governments are trying to crack down on scam operators.

各国政府正试图打击诈骗团伙。

Several countries are trying to crack down on scam centers. Here’s what they’ve been doing this year:

多个国家正努力打击这些诈骗窝点，以下是今年以来的主要行动：

• China, India and South Korea sent flights to repatriate hundreds of people freed from compounds in Myanmar. A court in China also sentenced 11 people to death after convicting them of running an illegal gambling and scam ring there.

• 中国、印度和韩国派出航班，接回数百名从缅甸诈骗园区获救的公民。中国法院还以经营非法赌博和诈骗团伙罪名，判处11人死刑。

• Thailand cut power and telecommunication lines to one of Myanmar’s largest scam compounds, and extradited to China a man accused of running a major scam compound in Myanmar. And a top Thai official resigned over allegations of bribery related to cybercrime in Cambodia.

• 泰国切断了缅甸最大诈骗园区之一的电力和通信线路，并向中国引渡了一名被控在缅甸运营大型诈骗园区的男子。一名泰国高级官员因涉嫌与柬埔寨网络犯罪相关的贿赂指控辞职。

• The United States and Britain imposed sanctions on a Cambodian company accused of running a major scam operation. The U.S. later formed a federal task force to seize scammers’ equipment and crypto assets.

• 美国和英国对一家被控运营大型诈骗网络的柬埔寨公司实施制裁。美国随后成立联邦特别行动小组，旨在收缴诈骗分子的设备和加密货币资产。

• SpaceX said it had disabled more than 2,500 Starlink devices that power many of the online fraud operations in Myanmar, and the country’s ruling military government said it had raided a large scam compound.

• SpaceX表示，已停用超过2500台为缅甸许多网络诈骗活动提供支持的星链设备；缅甸军政府称已突袭一处大型诈骗园区。

• South Korea raised concerns about its citizens who had disappeared into Cambodian scam centers.

• 韩国对失踪于柬埔寨诈骗园区的本国公民表达关切。

• A court in the Philippines convicted the former mayor of a small town for trafficking people to a compound that officials have linked to online scams and organized crime.

• 菲律宾一家法院判定某镇的前镇长贩运人口罪名成立，他将民众贩卖至一处据官员认为与网络诈骗和有组织犯罪相关的园区。

本月，柬埔寨金边王子国际广场。美国司法部已申请查抄王子控股集团创始人兼董事长陈志持有的价值150亿美元的比特币。

But such actions will probably not dent the profits of an industry that brings in an about $64 billion each year, said Jason Tower, a senior expert at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, an advocacy group based in Geneva.

但总部位于日内瓦的倡导组织全球打击跨国有组织犯罪倡议的高级专家杰森·托尔表示，这类行动可能难以撼动这个年获利约640亿美元的产业。

One sign of that: Even in the middle of a mass crackdown by the Chinese authorities in February, construction on scam compounds in Myanmar continued.

一个明显的迹象是：即便在今年2月中国当局开展大规模打击行动期间，缅甸诈骗园区的建设仍在继续。

Dismantling the scam industry will require coordinated international efforts.

摧毁诈骗产业需要国际协同行动。

Investigators must share more financial data and information that they gather from rescued scammers, Mr. Tower said.

托尔表示，调查人员必须共享更多财务数据及从获救诈骗者处获取的信息。

But pinning down the money trail is difficult because the profits are laundered through luxury properties and encrypted Bitcoin wallets. They also find footholds in countries across Africa and South Asia where organized crime and corruption have weakened governance.

但追踪资金流向十分困难，因为犯罪所得通过豪华房产和加密的比特币钱包洗钱，还在非洲和南亚多个国家扎根，这些地区因有组织犯罪和腐败导致治理能力薄弱。

For now, Mr. Tower said, investigators are moving too slowly and the scam centers they target are too lucrative — and too easy to set up — to be stopped.

托尔指出，目前调查人员行动过于迟缓，而诈骗园区利润丰厚且极易设立，因此难以被彻底遏制。

When a Michigan graduate student from China was charged in June in the smuggling of restricted agricultural materials like seeds and a potentially dangerous fungus into the United States, a federal prosecutor said her actions raised “the gravest national security concerns.”

当一名来自中国的密歇根大学研究生今年6月被指控将受限农业材料——如种子和一种可能具有危害性的真菌——走私到美国时，一位联邦检察官表示，她的行为引发了“最严重的国家安全关切”。

A congressional committee chairman urged the University of Michigan, where the student did her research, to investigate its labs, and went on to accuse China of “a broader, coordinated campaign targeting universities across the country.”

一位国会委员会主席指责中国正在开展“针对全美高校的广泛协同行动”，并敦促该研究生所在的密歇根大学对其实验室展开调查。

But when the student, Yunqing Jian, pleaded guilty earlier this month, she said she had simply been trying to speed up her research into crop protection. The prosecution conceded that it could not prove she had ill intent, though citing the potential for “devastating harm,” it asked a judge for a two-year prison term.

但在本月早些时候，这位名叫简云晴（音）的学生认罪时表示，她只是想加快自己在作物保护领域的研究。检方承认无法证明她有恶意，但仍以“可能造成严重伤害”为由，要求法官判处她两年监禁。

The judge instead sentenced Ms. Jian to time served — five months — and allowed her to return to China.

法官最终仅判处她已服刑期——5个月——并允许她返回中国。

However muted the denouement of the case, some lawmakers and foreign policy experts say it, as well as several other cases against Chinese researchers in the United States, highlight a national security threat posed by ties between American universities and institutions with Chinese scientists.

尽管此案以相对平淡的方式结束，但一些国会议员和外交政策专家表示，该案以及其他几起针对在美中国研究人员的案件凸显了美国学术界与中国科学家密切联系所构成的国家安全威胁。

American schools and scientific institutions are being pressed to sever ties with Chinese counterparts. Congress is considering restricting these links. And weeks before Ms. Jian, 33, was charged, the federal government vowed to “aggressively revoke” visas for Chinese students, though President Trump later backtracked.

美国学校和科研机构正面临切断与中国同行联系的压力。国会正在考虑限制此类联系。在33岁的简云晴被起诉几周前，联邦政府曾宣称要“积极撤销”中国学生的签证，不过特朗普总统后来收回了这一政策。

More than 275,000 students from China attended school in the United States last year, second only to the number of students from India. Warnings about the potential dangers posed by some foreign students go back decades, but even some who see risks say that the focus on China has been at times cynical and political.

 去年有超过27.5万名中国学生在美国就读，人数仅次于印度学生。关于某些外国学生可能构成危险的警告已持续数十年，但即使是看到风险的人也认为，对中国的关注有时带有恶意揣测和政治色彩。

Ms. Jian’s lawyer spoke of “political hysteria” and prejudice against Chinese students.

简云晴的律师提到了针对中国学生的“政治歇斯底里”和偏见。

In a statement after the sentencing, Jerome F. Gorgon Jr., the interim U.S. attorney in Detroit, called Ms. Jian’s conviction “a small but important measure against secret biological threats from China.”

 底特律临时联邦检察官杰罗姆·戈登二世在判决后发表声明，称简云晴被定罪是“对中国秘密生物威胁采取的一项虽小但重要的措施”。

在针对两名中国研究人员的刑事诉讼文件中包含了一张被鉴定为禾谷镰刀菌的病原体图片。

Pathogens and parasites

 病原体与寄生虫

Ms. Jian’s smuggling took place when she was working as a postdoctoral fellow at a University of Michigan lab, according to investigators. It came to light after a colleague and boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, 34, flew into Detroit and was found to be transporting the fungus.

根据调查人员透露，简云晴的偷带行为发生在她作为密歇根大学实验室博士后研究员期间。此事因其伴侣、34岁的刘尊永（音）飞抵底特律时被发现携带该真菌而曝光。

As part of her guilty plea, Ms. Jian admitted hiding seeds in her boots in a “very small” baggie before traveling to the United States from China, as well as sneaking in other material. She also admitted discussing the best way for Mr. Liu, who is believed to be in China, to smuggle in the fungus.

作为认罪协议的一部分，简云晴承认在从中国飞往美国前，将种子放在一个“很小的”塑料袋藏在靴子里，还偷运了其他材料。她还承认与据信目前在中国的刘尊永讨论了偷带真菌的最佳方式。

Both admitted lying to investigators about their actions.

两人均承认向调查人员撒谎。

There remains some debate how much danger, if any, their actions posed.

他们的行为究竟构成多大危险——如果有的话——仍存在争议。

“The fungal strain did not present any appreciable danger of infestation or disease, let alone a ‘significant risk,’” Ms. Jian’s lawyer argued in a sentencing memo.

简云晴的律师在量刑备忘录中辩称：“该真菌菌株并不构成任何值得关注的侵染或疾病风险，更谈不上‘重大风险’。”

The fungus, Fusarium graminearum, can cause severe disease in wheat and other crops and can harm humans and animals, but it was not new to the United States, or even to Michigan, experts say.

 专家表示，这种名为禾谷镰刀菌的真菌可导致小麦等作物出现严重病害，也可能危害人类和动物，但它在美国早已存在，甚至密西根就有。

Both scientists worked on research to reduce crop disease, and Ms. Jian’s colleagues and professors at the lab attested in court documents to her collegiality and valuable work contributions. They said the offenses she was charged with appeared out of character.

两名科学家均从事减少作物病害的研究，简云晴在实验室的同事和教授都作证说她为人友善、贡献巨大，他们认为她被指控的罪行与她的性格完全不符。

The Chinese Consulate in Chicago, responding to the smuggling charges against Ms. Jian, said that China required its citizens overseas “to strictly abide by local laws and regulations, including those related to entry and exit.” But it said it “firmly opposes the U.S.’s political manipulation of related cases.”

中国驻芝加哥总领事馆在回应简云晴的偷带指控时表示，中国要求海外公民“严格遵守当地法律法规，包括出入境相关规定”。但同时表示“坚决反对美方对相关案件的政治操弄”。

Zichen Wang, a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, a think tank in Beijing, called the case “overblown.” Writing in his newsletter, Pekingnology, in July, he said that Ms. Jian’s failure to declare the biological materials appeared to be unethical and illegal, but not a potential bioterror threat, as the American authorities initially described it.

北京全球化智库研究员王子辰认为此案被“夸大”。他在7月的《Pekingnology》通讯中写道，简云晴未申报生物材料的行为确实不道德且违法，但并不像美国当局最初描述的那样构成潜在生物恐怖威胁。

Miles Yu, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, a think tank in Washington, said in an interview that extra vigilance about the activities of Chinese students and scientists was warranted. Researchers and other travelers bringing in biological materials raises concerns generally, Mr. Yu said, but he said he was particularly concerned by materials from China because of what he described as the country’s “abysmal lack of biosafety standards.”

华盛顿哈德逊研究所中国中心主任余茂春在接受采访时表示，对中国学生和科学家的活动保持额外警惕是有必要的。他表示，研究人员和其他旅客携带生物材料本身就会引发担忧，但他特别担心来自中国的材料，因为中国“生物安全标准极度缺失”。

Given the risk to the public, he said, even if a researcher is just trying to avoid a bureaucratic burden, bringing in restricted materials is a “matter of national security.”

他表示，鉴于对公众构成的风险，即使研究人员只是想规避行政程序，携带受限材料也属于“国家安全问题”。

The U.S. attorney’s office in Detroit is prosecuting several other similar cases.

底特律联邦检察官办公室正在处理其他几起类似案件。

Earlier this month, three Chinese researchers working in a University of Michigan lab were charged in connection with the investigation of another scientist from China arrested with the undeclared DNA of roundworms, a parasite used in research. That scientist pleaded no contest to the charges and was deported in September, prosecutors say.

本月早些时候，一名中国科学家未申报携带用于研究的线虫DNA寄生虫被捕，受本案牵连，三名在密歇根大学实验室工作的中国研究人员被起诉。检察官称，该科学家对指控表示不抗辩，并于9月被驱逐出境。

“Allegedly attempting to smuggle biological materials under the guise of ‘research’ is a serious crime that threatens America’s national and agricultural security,” the U.S. attorney general, Pam Bondi, said in a statement announcing the new charges this month.

美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪在本月宣布新指控的声明中说：“以‘科研’为幌子企图偷带生物材料是一项严重罪行，威胁着美国的国家和农业安全。”

密歇根州共和党众议员约翰·穆勒纳尔指责中国以美国大学为目标进行间谍活动。

Politics and Bureaucracy

 政治与官僚主义

The lawmaker who spoke out about the Jian case, Representative John Moolenaar, Republican of Michigan, heads the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. His committee has been pressuring schools to sever ties with Chinese institutions, citing national security risks.

就简云晴案发表公开言论的密歇根州共和党众议员约翰·穆勒纳尔是众议院中共问题特设委员会主席。该委员会以国家安全风险为由，持续向高校施压要求切断与中方机构的联系。

In January, the University of Michigan, which did not respond to a request for comment, said it would shut down a joint institute with a Chinese school after the committee “strongly encouraged” it to do so. About 10 U.S. universities have taken similar actions under pressure.

密歇根大学未回应置评请求，校方在1月表示，将在该委员会“强烈建议”下关闭与一所中国学校的联合研究所。目前约有10所美国大学在压力下采取了类似行动。

Mr. Moolenaar has also introduced a bill to deny government funding to scientists who work with anyone “affiliated with a hostile foreign entity,” prohibiting joint research, papers and advising activities.

穆勒纳尔还提出了一项法案，拒绝向与“敌对外国实体”有关联的科学家提供政府资金，禁止联合研究、合作论文和学术指导活动。

Some academics and advocacy groups have resisted this move, arguing it would harm “the thriving research ecosystem that laid the foundation for American competitiveness and innovation.” And the congressman’s strong stance on Chinese students now seems at odds with that of the Trump administration.

 一些学者和倡导团体抵制这一举措，认为这将损害“为美国竞争力和创新奠定基础的繁荣研究生态系统”。而这位议员对中国学生的强硬立场现在似乎与特朗普政府相左。

Appearing to shift course, Mr. Trump, in an interview with the Fox News host Laura Ingraham, recently said that denying visas to Chinese students would put “half” of American colleges “out of business.” He says that their tuition is critical to schools and that the dangers have been overstated.

特朗普在接受福克斯新闻主持人劳拉·英格拉恩采访时似乎改变了立场，他说拒绝中国学生签证会让美国“一半的”大学“倒闭”。他表示，这些学生的学费对学校至关重要，危险被夸大了。

Mr. Trump now speaks of allowing 600,000 Chinese student visas, dismissing critics’ concerns. Students from many countries, he suggested, may pose security risks. “Do you think the French are better?” he asked.

特朗普现在谈到要允许60万中国学生签证，并对批评者的担忧不以为然。他表示，许多国家的学生都可能构成安全风险。“你觉得法国人就更好吗？”他反问。

It was a crisp autumn morning in the northern Japanese region of Akita, and people were on edge.

日本北部的秋田县，一个秋高气爽的清晨，人们心神不宁。

Commuters — some wearing bells, some carrying cans of repellent spray — walked gingerly down leaf-covered streets. Children had been warned to stay indoors. Parks were sealed off with yellow tape — “Do Not Enter!” — and a menacing silhouette. Troops patrolled nearby mountains, brandishing shields and setting traps. Drones flew overhead.

通勤者们有的戴着铃铛，有的揣着防熊喷雾，小心翼翼走在落叶覆盖的街道上。孩子们被警告待在室内，公园用黄色胶带封锁——上面印着“禁止入内！”字样——还立着威慑性的猛兽剪影。自卫队手持盾牌在附近山区巡逻，设置陷阱，无人机在空中盘旋监视。

Akita was on a war footing against a 400-pound, persimmon-loving foe: the Asiatic black bear. The animal has been linked to more than 50 attacks and four deaths in the region this year, part of a nationwide surge of aggression by bears that is testing Japan’s traditional belief in harmonious coexistence with nature.

秋田县正处于战时状态，敌人是重约180公斤、酷爱柿子的亚洲黑熊。黑熊今年已在该地区引发50多起袭击事件，造成四人死亡。而在日本全国范围内，黑熊攻击性激增，正考验着这个国家与自然和谐共处的传统信念。

Bears have injured elderly residents in Akita who were taking out the trash and delivering newspapers. They have sneaked up on mushroom hunters and rice farmers, broken into supermarkets and been spotted on school grounds. One widely circulated video showed an 82-year-old woman being attacked from behind during her morning walk.

在秋田县，曾有长者倒垃圾或送报时遭黑熊袭击。它们悄然逼近采菇人与稻农，闯入超市，甚至现身校园。一段广为流传的视频显示，一位82岁的老妇人清晨散步时，被黑熊从背后袭击。

“When you cross the street in Akita now, you look right, you look left and then you look for bears,” said Akihiro Suzuki, 65, a retired government worker, as he made his way to the library on a recent day. “You never know when a bear might be around.”

“现在在秋田过马路，既要左看右看，还要留意有没有熊，”65岁的退休公务员铃木明广（音）近日前往图书馆时说。“你永远不知道熊什么时候会突然出现。”

位于北秋田和阿仁地区附近的一个村庄，毗邻人类与熊共存的森林地带。

Akita Prefecture, home to about 880,000 people, is on the front line of Japan’s bear crisis, which has penetrated the national psyche and drawn an all-out response from the government. Across the country, nearly 200 people have been attacked by bears this year and 13 have died, a record. Bears have been spotted in northern ski towns and southern villages, and on the outskirts of cities like Tokyo and Kyoto. The United States, Canada and the United Kingdom have recently issued travel warnings about bears in Japan.

秋田县约有88万人口，是日本熊患危机的最前线。这场危机已触动国民神经，引发政府全面应对。今年全日本已有近200人遭熊袭击，13人死亡，创下历史纪录。黑熊的踪迹出现在北部滑雪小镇、南部村庄，甚至东京、京都等城市的郊区。美国、加拿大和英国近期均发布了关于日本熊患的旅行警告。

Experts have attributed the rise in attacks partly to climate change, with storms wreaking havoc on vegetation like beech trees, which produce the nuts that bears depend on. Bears have grown increasingly brazen in their quest for calories, venturing into urban centers in search of scraps.

专家认为，袭击事件激增部分源于气候变化，风暴严重破坏了山毛榉等植被，而山毛榉坚果是黑熊的主要食物来源。为了获取能量，黑熊变得越来越肆无忌惮，闯入城市中心寻找残羹剩饭。

山毛榉果实是日本森林中熊赖以生存的食物之一。

Japan’s demographic changes have also exacerbated the problem. Farming communities used to serve as buffers, separating the mountains from more densely inhabited areas. But as Japan’s population shrinks and ages, and as young people move to cities, some rural areas have hollowed out. Bears are moving in, inching closer to human settlements.

日本的人口结构变化也加剧了这一问题。过去，农业社区是分隔山区与人口密集区的缓冲带，但随着日本人口萎缩、老龄化加剧，年轻人涌向城市，部分农村地区逐渐空心化。黑熊趁机迁入，一步步逼近人类聚居地。

In Japan, where mountains and forests make up about 70 percent of the land, bears are considered sacred beings. In Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost island, which has also seen a spike in attacks, the brown bear is revered as a deity living in the human realm.

日本70%的国土为山地和森林，黑熊在当地被视为神圣的生灵。在同样遭遇熊袭击事件激增的日本最北端岛屿北海道，棕熊被尊为生活在人类世界的神灵。

But concerns about tradition and conservation have largely been set aside as public anxiety has swelled. The Japanese government sent troops this month to hard-hit areas like Akita to help set traps. Riot police have joined forces with the thinning ranks of hunters to track and kill bears. Drones — including some that emit the sound of barking dogs — have been deployed over parks. A prominent Japanese university recently released a “Bear Encounter AI Prediction Map” to forecast bear activity.

但随着公众焦虑情绪高涨，对传统和环保的考量已被搁置一旁。日本政府本月向秋田等重灾区派遣自卫队协助设置陷阱，防暴警察与日渐减少的猎人联手追踪捕杀黑熊。公园上空部署了无人机，其中部分能发出狗吠声。日本一所知名大学最近还发布了“熊出没AI预测地图”，用于预判黑熊活动轨迹。

Japan amended its strict gun laws this fall to make it easier for hunters to shoot in residential areas. In Tottori Prefecture, in western Japan, a group of hunters gathered recently to practice shooting a bear in an emergency. Two hunters, holding fake rifles, homed in on the “bear,” which was actually a government worker dressed in black and wearing a mask.

今年秋天，日本修改了严格的枪支法，放宽了对于猎人在居民区射杀熊的限制。在日本西部的鸟取县，一群猎人近日聚集起来，练习在紧急情况下射杀黑熊。两名猎人手持仿真步枪，瞄准伪装成熊的目标——实际上是身着黑衣、戴着面具的政府工作人员。

Encounters between humans and bears in Japan are likely to continue, especially in the fall and spring when bears hungriest, before and after they hibernate. The population of bears in Japan has risen in recent years and now exceeds 50,000, experts say, in a country of about 124 million people.

日本的人熊冲突可能还将持续，尤其是在春秋两季，这是熊类冬眠前后最饥饿的时期。专家称，近年来日本黑熊数量不断增加，目前已超过5万头，而日本总人口约为1.24亿。

In Akita, the public is learning to adapt. Stores now open later and close earlier. The delivery of mail has been suspended in some areas. Commuters leave their apartments each morning armed with pocket-size bells and bear spray, which contains chili pepper extract that irritates mucous membranes and eyes and can stop a bear’s charge within seconds. Children no longer walk alone to school.

秋田县民众正在学着适应这种生活：商店推迟开门、提前关门，部分地区暂停邮递服务；通勤者每天早上出门时，随身携带小铃铛和防熊喷雾（含辣椒提取物，能刺激黏膜和眼睛，几秒内就能阻止黑熊袭击）；孩子们不再独自步行上学。

The attacks have brought a somber note to the peak of the fall foliage season, when the region’s fiery maple trees and gold-tinged forests typically draw crowds of carefree, selfie-snapping visitors.

这场熊患给秋田县的红叶旺季蒙上了一层阴影，往年此时，这里火红的枫树和金黄的森林会吸引大批悠闲赏景、拍照留念的游客。

“People have to live their daily lives not knowing when they, their family, co-workers or friends might be attacked,” said Maki Koyama, 50, who works at a cultural center in Akita. “The current situation is one of fear and confusion.”

“人们每天生活在恐惧中，不知道自己、家人、同事或朋友何时会遭到袭击，”50岁的小山真希（音）说道，她在秋田县一家文化中心工作。“现在的情况充满恐惧和混乱。”

鸟取县山城地津町举办了一场熊类安全研讨会。当地官员、警察和猎人齐聚一堂，学习熊的习性以及在目击熊时应采取的应对措施。

The government’s effort to exterminate bears — by setting live traps that resemble steel cages and then shooting them — has troubled some traditional hunters, known as matagi. They follow ceremonies meant to return the bears’ spirits to the heavens. In Akita, bear meat is a local specialty at hot pot restaurants, and bear parts were once sold as medicine.

政府通过设置钢笼式活体陷阱捕杀熊只后将其射杀，这一做法让一些被称为“matagi”的传统猎人感到不安。他们狩猎前会举行仪式，希望让熊的灵魂回归天界。在秋田县，熊肉是当地火锅店的特色食材，熊的身体部位曾被当作药材出售。

“Both we and the bears are in trouble,” said Hideo Suzuki, 78, a matagi hunter in Akita. “I feel sorry for the bears.”

“我们和熊都陷入了困境，”78岁的秋田县山林猎人铃木英夫（音）说。“我为这些熊感到难过。”

左为猎人铃木英夫，右为猎人伊藤胜，二人手持名为“长匕”的传统狩猎工具。

The ranks of hunters have dwindled in Akita in recent decades, contributing to the rise in the bear population. There were once hundreds of hunters in Mr. Suzuki’s group; now there are only about three dozen. He said it has been difficult to recruit young hunters as rural areas empty out.

近几十年来，秋田县的猎人数量大幅减少，这也是熊数量增多的原因之一。铃木英夫所在的狩猎小组曾有数百人，如今仅剩30多人。他说，随着农村地区人口流失，很难招募到年轻猎人。

“There’s nothing for young people to do here,” he said, “so there’s no need for them to come.”

“这里没有年轻人的活干，所以他们没必要回来，”他说。

The arrival of reinforcements in Akita this month is meant to help restore a sense of security and calm. Bears have dominated the national news recently; television channels routinely broadcast safety videos showing what to do in case of an encounter.

本月抵达秋田县的自卫队旨在帮助恢复当地的安全感和平静。近期，熊的话题占据日本新闻头条，电视台频繁播放安全指南视频，教导民众遇熊时该如何应对。

Victims of bear attacks are also speaking out, urging a forceful response. Keiji Minatoya, the owner of a confectionery store in Akita, was attacked by a bear in his garage two years ago. The bear tore off a piece of his earlobe; when he looked in the mirror, he could see part of his skull. The bear attacked four other people in his neighborhood that day.

熊袭受害者也纷纷发声，呼吁采取强硬应对措施。秋田县一家糖果店老板皆藤惠二（音）两年前在车库遭熊袭击，耳朵被咬掉一块，照镜子时能看到部分头骨。当天，这只熊还袭击了附近四名居民。

皆藤惠二将烟花作为工具，用来驱赶熊。

Mr. Minatoya, who still feels some numbness and tingling in his head and has a scar across his face, said that culling the population of bears was a “necessary evil.” He said he wished he could kill and eat the bear that attacked him.

皆藤惠二的头部仍有麻木感和刺痛感，脸上留着疤痕。他表示，捕杀熊是“必要之恶”，甚至希望能亲手杀死并吃掉袭击自己的那只熊。

”They’re more aggressive than I thought, and incredibly strong for their size,” he said. “They’re extremely fast, powerful and aggressive.”

“它们比我想象的更具攻击性，而且相对于体型来说，力量惊人，”他说。“它们速度极快、力量强大、极具攻击性。”

In Akita, business owners have seen a decline in foot traffic because, they said, people are too scared to go out. Tourists are still making the trek to the region, but they are shortening itineraries or staying indoors.

秋田县的商家表示，由于人们吓得不敢出门，客流量明显下降。游客仍会前来，但会缩短行程或尽量待在室内。

“It’s not worth the risk of being eaten,” said Teresa Liu, a visitor from Taiwan.

“不值得冒被熊吃掉的风险，”来自台湾的游客特蕾莎·刘（音）说。

Senshu Park, known for its cherry trees and cypresses, has been repeatedly closed this fall following bear sightings. Traps have been set up in the park, and workers have flown drones overhead to search for bears.

今年秋天，以樱花树和柏树闻名的千秋公园（音）因多次发现黑熊踪迹而反复关闭。公园内已设置陷阱，工作人员操控无人机在空中搜寻黑熊。

Around the corner, Rumi Uematsu, 55, manages a toy store and after school program. She worried about the impact of the bear crisis on young children, who already endured the restrictions of the Covid-19 era.

街角处，55岁的植松留美（音）经营着一家玩具店，还开办了课后托管班。她担心熊患危机对孩子们的影响，这些孩子已经经历过新冠疫情时期的限制。

“They have finally regained their freedom,” Ms. Uematsu said, “and now they have to live with anxiety again.”

“他们终于重获自由，现在却又要生活在焦虑中，”植松留美说。

Ms. Uematsu was awakened one night last month by the growl of a bear outside her home. She nervously opened her window, but the bear was gone.

上个月的一个晚上，植松留美被屋外的熊吼惊醒。她紧张地打开窗户，熊已经不见了。

“We need to think of new countermeasures,” she said. “Right now, all we can do is take emergency steps and hope.”

“我们需要想出新的对策，”她说。“现在我们能做的只有采取紧急手段，然后盼望。”

Walking 10,000 steps a day has long been a fitness cliché. But new research suggests that the health benefits of walking ramp up until about 7,000 steps — before leveling out. And as daily goals go, that’s a little more attainable.

每天走10000步早已是健身界的老生常谈，但新研究表明，步行带来的健康益处会逐步提升，约7000步时达到峰值，之后便趋于平缓。而作为日常目标，7000步显然更易实现。

The analysis, published today in the medical journal The Lancet Public Health, examined data from 57 studies and found that even moderate amounts of walking were associated with a lower risk of dementia and cardiovascular disease, among other conditions, adding to a wide body of research tying walking to longevity. People who walked 7,000 steps a day (roughly three miles) also had a 47 percent lower risk of death compared with those who walked 2,000 steps, the analysis found.

这项分析发表于医学期刊《柳叶刀公共卫生》(The Lancet Public Health)，整合了57项研究的数据，它发现即便中量步行，也能降低失智症、心血管疾病等多种疾病风险，这进一步佐证了大量将步行与长寿关联的研究。分析显示，比起每天走2000步的人，每天走7000步（约五公里）的人死亡风险降低47%。

“It is just as important to walk 7,000 steps a day as it is to take your pills,” said Dr. Joshua Knowles, a cardiologist at Stanford Health Care.

“每天走7000步，其重要性不亚于按时服药，”斯坦福医疗保健中心的心脏病专家约书亚·诺尔斯博士说。

The Many Benefits of Walking

步行的诸多益处

Decades of research shows that walking improves metabolic health, making the heart stronger and more efficient while also reducing weight, cholesterol and blood sugar levels, said Keith Baar, a physiologist at the University of California, Davis.

加州大学戴维斯分校的生理学家基思·巴尔表示，数十年的研究表明，走路能改善代谢健康，增强心脏功能、提升心脏效率，同时还能减轻体重、降低胆固醇和血糖水平。

While most scientific reviews have looked at how higher step counts are linked to lower risk of cardiovascular disease and death, the new analysis examined associations across a much broader range of conditions. For example, the study found that walking 7,000 steps a day was associated with a lower risk of Type 2 diabetes, depressive symptoms and cancer death, when compared with 2,000 steps.

以往大多数科学综述关注步数增加与心血管疾病及死亡风险降低的关联，而这项新分析覆盖了更广泛的疾病类型。例如，研究发现，与每天走2000步相比，每天走7000步与2型糖尿病、抑郁症状及癌症死亡风险降低相关。

Experts said the most surprising finding was the nearly 40 percent lower risk of dementia in people who walked 7,000 versus 2,000 steps a day. While the exact mechanism isn’t clear, exercise is linked to new neuron growth, greater blood flow to the brain and less neurological inflammation, said Dr. Nikhil Palekar, the director of the Stony Brook Center of Excellence for Alzheimer’s Disease.

专家称，最令人意外的发现是：每天走7000步的人失智症风险比走2000步的人低近40%。石溪大学阿尔茨海默病卓越中心主任尼希尔·帕莱卡尔博士解释，尽管确切机制尚不清楚，但运动与神经元新生、脑部血流量增加及神经炎症减轻相关。

“Getting up and moving has got to be the top priority,” Dr. Knowles said.

“起身活动必须是首要任务，”诺尔斯说。

The Myth of 10,000 Steps

10000步的迷思

For decades, 10,000 steps was touted as the magic number for good health. But the recommendation is more myth than science, and researchers have debunked it in recent years.

数十年来，10000步一直被奉为有益健康的神奇数字。但这一建议更像是传说而非科学结论，研究人员近年来已揭穿了这一说法。

“We don’t have any evidence for 10,000 steps,” said Melody Ding, an epidemiologist at the University of Sydney School of Public Health and the lead author of the new study. “It’s just a really big random number that people throw out there.”

“我们没有任何证据支持10000步的说法，”这项新研究的主要作者、悉尼大学公共卫生学院流行病学家梅洛迪·丁（音）说。“这只是人们随口提出的一个较大的随机数字。”

The analysis found that there was no significant difference in the risk of falls, cancer, Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular mortality between people who walked 7,000 versus 10,000 steps per day. There was some improvement beyond 7,000 steps for the risk of dementia and death, although it was small, Dr. Ding added.

分析发现，在跌倒风险、癌症、2型糖尿病及心血管疾病死亡率方面，每天走7000步和10000步的人没有显著差异。梅洛迪·丁还说，超过7000步后，失智症和死亡风险虽有小幅改善，但提升空间已十分有限。

The health benefits of walking are like juicing an orange: The first few squeezes give the most juice, but after a while, things start to dry up. In the study, increasing from 2,000 to 4,000 steps a day was associated with a 36 percent lower risk of death, while going from 4,000 to 7,000 was linked to a 17 percent lower risk. The gains flatten further beyond that.

步行的健康益处就像榨橙汁：前几下能榨出最多果汁，但到一定程度后，汁水就会越来越少。研究中，每天步数从2000步增加到4000步，死亡风险降低36%；从4000步增加到7000步，死亡风险再降17%；超过7000步后，收益曲线进一步趋平。

Higher step counts are not harmful, said Hannah Arem, an epidemiologist at MedStar Health Research Institute in Washington — but nobody needs to feel guilty if they can’t hit 10,000.

华盛顿MedStar健康研究所的流行病学家汉娜·阿雷姆表示，步数更多并非有害，但即便达不到10000步，也无需自责。

Moving, Even a Little Bit, Matters

哪怕少量活动也有意义

The new data only shows a correlation and cannot prove that walking caused these health benefits. After all, people who walk more tend to be less frail and eat better, potentially muddying the results, said Dr. Seth Martin, a cardiologist at Johns Hopkins Medicine. The specific risk reduction for dementia should also be interpreted with caution, since it was based on just two studies.

新数据仅显示相关性，无法证明步行是这些健康益处的直接原因。约翰·霍普金斯医学院的心脏病专家塞思·马丁博士解释，毕竟步行量大者往往身体更健壮、饮食更健康，这些因素可能会干扰研究结果。此外，失智症风险降低的具体数据也需谨慎解读，因为它仅基于两项研究。

Experts also say that intensity still matters. So, on your daily walk, consider adding lunges, picking up the pace or choosing a route with hills or stairs.

专家还表示，强度也很重要。因此，日常走路时可以尝试加入弓步训练、加快步伐，或选择带有坡度或台阶的路线。

Regardless, the evidence is overwhelming that “any steps are good steps,” Dr. Martin said. And while not everyone can remember how many minutes they’ve exercised, almost everyone can track their steps over time with their smartphone.

尽管如此，马丁说，大量证据表明“任何步数都是有益的”。而且，虽然不是每个人都能记住自己运动了多少分钟，但几乎所有人都能通过智能手机追踪一段时间内的步数。

“If you improve your step count, you are impacting your health across the board,” he said.

“只要增加步数，就能全面改善健康状况，”他说。

The message coming out of the elections this month could not have been clearer: Americans are worried about their economy.

本月的选举传出的信息再清楚不过：美国人对本国的经济感到忧心忡忡。

The moment might have called for President Trump to pack a bag and head for a Midwestern factory, or to hold a heartland round table about the falling price of oil. He did not (although my colleague Alan Rappeport reports that Trump plans to do more travel like that soon). And while he has made a point of talking about affordability, he currently appears keenly focused on matters further afield — just as he has for much of his presidency.

特朗普总统在此时此刻本应收拾行李，前往中西部的一家工厂，或者在心脏地带举办一场关于油价下跌的圆桌会议。他没有这么做（尽管我的同事艾伦·拉佩波特报道，特朗普计划近期安排更多此类行程）。虽然他确实强调了“生活成本”问题，但目前他显然把精力高度集中在更遥远的事务上——正如其任期多数时间所做的那样。

This week alone, the president lavished praise and hospitality on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, waving away concerns about his role in the gruesome 2018 murder of a Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi. My colleagues reported yesterday that Trump has authorized C.I.A. plans for covert action in Venezuela, as the administration escalates pressure on the government of Nicolás Maduro that has led to the deployment of the largest U.S. aircraft carrier to the region.

仅在本周，总统就对沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼极尽赞美与款待，完全无视对方在2018年残忍杀害《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家贾迈勒·卡舒吉一案中所扮演的角色。我的同事们昨天报道，特朗普已批准中情局在委内瑞拉开展秘密行动，同时政府对尼古拉斯·马杜罗政权加大施压，在该地区部署美国最大的航母。

Beyond that, there was Trump’s $20 billion bailout for Argentina and, this summer, his bombing of Iran over objections from many of his isolationist supporters.

除此之外，还有特朗普给阿根廷的200亿美元救助计划，以及今年夏天不顾许多孤立主义者的反对，轰炸了伊朗。

This is fueling cracks in the MAGA firmament, and it’s worrying Trump backers who wanted him to avoid foreign entanglements. But my colleague David Sanger, the White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times, says that anyone waiting for Trump to turn inward might be missing the point.

这种做法正在MAGA阵营内部制造裂痕，也让那些希望特朗普避免卷入海外事务的支持者感到不安。但我在《纽约时报》负责白宫与国家安全报道的同事戴维·桑格表示，那些等着特朗普“向内转”的人可能根本没搞懂重点。

Earlier today, I asked David to explain what, nearly a year into Trump’s second term, “America First” seems to mean to the president. Trump, he says, is less an isolationist than a unilateralist who believes his dealings with foreign powers are the key to ensuring American prosperity. But his approach, David says, is creating political risks for Trump — and national security risks for the nation.

今天早些时候，我请戴维解释，在特朗普第二任期即将满一年的此刻，“美国优先”对他来说到底意味着什么。他说，特朗普其实不是孤立主义者，而是一个单边主义者，他相信自己与外国打交道的方式才是保障美国繁荣的关键。但这种做法正给特朗普带来政治风险，也给国家带来安全风险。

Trump has promised that tariffs and trade deals would improve the American economy. How deeply has that belief shaped his dealings with other countries?

特朗普一直承诺，关税和贸易协议能够改善美国经济。这种信念在多大程度上塑造了他与其他国家打交道的方式？

Trump’s foreign policy is built around extracting commitments to invest in the United States. Over time, striking deals has come to replace having a big strategic view of American relations with major powers.

特朗普的外交政策核心就是逼迫对方承诺向美国投资。随着时间推移，“做交易”已经取代了对美国与大国关系进行宏观战略规划的做法。

We saw this when Trump met Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, a few weeks ago. They focused on finding a resolution to a crisis Trump had created by raising tariffs on China, to which the country retaliated by cutting off rare earths, magnets and other critical material that China dominates. They made a deal — and Trump declared it a huge success — but what was missing was discussion of Taiwan, or China’s incursions into territory around the Philippines, or Beijing’s nuclear program, arguably the fastest-growing in the world.

几周前特朗普会见中国领导人习近平时就是如此。两人把主要精力放在解决特朗普加征关税所引发的危机上——中国则以切断其占据垄断地位的稀土、磁体等关键材料的供应作为报复。他们达成了一项协议，特朗普宣称这是巨大成功——但完全没有谈到台湾、中国对菲律宾周边领土的侵犯，以及北京的核计划——其发展速度是目前世界上最快的。

Fast forward to this week with the Saudi crown prince. We saw the same thing happen again. Prince Mohammed said he would invest nearly a trillion dollars in the United States — although he did not say over what period of time. In return, he got a commitment from Trump for access to F-35 stealth fighters and the world’s fastest computer chips, critical for artificial intelligence. And he managed to sidestep, at least for the next few years, the one big security issue on which Trump wanted progress: getting the Saudis to sign the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel.

快进到本周与沙特王储的会晤，又是同样的剧本。王储表示将向美国投资近万亿美元（不过他没说时间跨度）。作为回报，特朗普承诺他将得到获取F-35隐形战机和全球最快人工智能芯片的机会。而他成功地把特朗普最想推进的那件大事——让沙特签署《亚伯拉罕协议》并承认以色列——至少往后推了几年。

In other words: The business deals not only become the core of the Trump foreign policy, but they tend to edge out the larger security issues. Where does Venezuela fit into all this?

换句话说：商业交易不仅成了特朗普外交政策的核心，而且往往把更大的安全议题挤到一边。那么委内瑞拉在这幅图景里处于什么位置？

At first glance, it doesn’t. Here we have the president, on the basis of concerns about drug imports to the U.S. and illegal immigration, going after Venezuela. The country is a source of cocaine, but not fentanyl. And it is hardly the biggest strategic challenge facing the United States. But there is one part of the Venezuelan story that has seized Trump’s attention and dominates his conversations with his aides, and that’s that the country is sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves.

乍看之下完全不搭。这里特朗普以担心毒品流入美国和非法移民为由对委内瑞拉下手。委内瑞拉确实是可卡因来源国，但不是芬太尼。而且它绝非美国面临的最大战略挑战。然而委内瑞拉故事里有一个部分牢牢抓住了特朗普的注意力，也主导了他与幕僚的谈话——那就是该国坐拥全球最大的石油储量。

We have some indications that oil has been at the center of the back-channel negotiations between the administration and Maduro. Is that the reason that Trump is putting 15 percent or more of our naval capacity in the Caribbean?

我们能看到一些迹象表明，石油一直是美国政府与马杜罗之间秘密谈判的核心。这是否就是特朗普把15%甚至更多海军力量部署到加勒比地区的原因？

You could argue that we are seeing a return to the gunboat diplomacy of more than a century ago, when we and other powers, like the British and the French, would intimidate a smaller country with a naval fleet to force a deal.

可以说，这有点像回归一个多世纪前的“炮舰外交”——当时我们以及英国、法国等列强，会用舰队威慑小国，逼迫对方就范。

So, to Trump, critics who say he’s focused on foreign policy at the expense of the domestic economy are drawing a false dichotomy. He believes the two are related.

所以，在特朗普认为，那些批评他“顾外不顾内”、牺牲国内经济去搞外交的人，其实是基于一个不存在的二元对立。他相信这两者是紧密相连的。

Trump, at his core, understands that this is a global economy. To Trump, it’s all an effort to ensure that America remains the world’s dominant economic and technological power, at a moment when its status is threatened more than ever by China.

特朗普骨子里明白当今是全球化经济。对他来说，所有这些努力都是为了确保美国在自身地位受到中国前所未有的威胁之际，继续保持世界头号经济与科技强国地位。

What kind of political risk does he face as a result of this approach?

这种做法会给他带来什么样的政治风险？

There’s huge political risk here for him. Remember George H.W. Bush? He had a huge American victory in the Persian Gulf war, which ratified the strength of the United States as the Soviet Union was collapsing. Yet he lost in 1992 because people thought he wasn’t paying attention to supermarket prices.

风险非常大。还记得老布什吗？他在海湾战争中大胜，正值苏联解体，美国国力如日中天，可1992年还是因为民众觉得他不关心超市物价而落选。

And are there security risks, too?

另外也存在安全风险吗？

In Trump’s first term, his national security strategy focused on turning the United States away from counterterrorism, and toward a focus on the rise of China and Russia. It’s very hard to square what Trump is doing in Venezuela now with that strategy.

在特朗普第一任期，国家安全战略的核心是从反恐转向集中应对中俄崛起。现在他在委内瑞拉的所作所为难与这一战略相符。

That aircraft carrier’s presence near Venezuela means that it’s not in the Middle East, where it was defending Israel from Iranian missiles earlier this year. And it’s not in the Indo-Pacific. As Xi Jinping watches this military buildup off Venezuela, he must be delighted, because that buildup was supposed to come in the Indo-Pacific to defend Taiwan. I don’t believe the Chinese thought the U.S. would tie up this much of its military force in the Caribbean.

那艘航母停在委内瑞拉附近，就意味着它不在中东（今年早些时候它还在那里为以色列挡伊朗导弹），也不在印太地区。习近平看到美国在加勒比地区进行如此大规模军力集结，一定乐开了花，因为原本这些军力是准备部署到印太地区保卫台湾的。中国人恐怕做梦都没想到美国会把这么多军力拴在加勒比。

So yes, it creates strategic risks as well as political ones.

所以，是的，这既制造了战略风险，也制造了政治风险。

Our conversation was condensed and edited for clarity.

以上对话为求清晰进行了提炼和编辑。

Lawrence H. Summers, a Harvard University economist and the university’s former president, will step back from his teaching duties while the university investigates his ties to the disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a spokesman for Mr. Summers said Wednesday.

哈佛大学经济学家、前校长劳伦斯·H·萨默斯的发言人周三表示，在哈佛就其与声名狼藉的金融家、性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的关系展开调查期间，萨默斯将暂停教学工作。

The spokesman, Steven Goldberg, said in a statement that Mr. Summers would also leave his role as director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School. “His co-teachers will complete the remaining three class sessions of the courses he has been teaching with them this semester, and he is not scheduled to teach next semester,” the statement added.

发言人史蒂文·戈德堡在声明中称，萨默斯还将辞去哈佛肯尼迪学院莫萨瓦尔-拉赫马尼商业与政府中心主任一职。“他的合作授课教师将完成本学期他参与教授课程的剩余三节课，且他下学期无授课安排，”声明还称。

A Harvard spokesman confirmed that Mr. Summers had told the university of his decision, which was first reported by the Harvard Crimson.

哈佛发言人证实，萨默斯已告知学校这一决定，该消息最初由《哈佛深红》报道。

Mr. Summers’s connection with Mr. Epstein had been known for years. But a tranche of emails that a House committee released last week revealed a cozy relationship between the two men, who exchanged messages after Mr. Epstein served jail time for sex crimes with minors. Among other topics, the men discussed a woman in whom Mr. Summers, who is married, was romantically interested. Mr. Epstein described himself as Mr. Summers’s wingman.

萨默斯与爱泼斯坦的关联多年来一直为人所知，但众议院委员会上周公布的一批邮件揭示了两人密切的关系——爱泼斯坦因对未成年人实施性犯罪入狱后，两人仍有邮件往来。邮件内容包括已婚的萨默斯对一名女性的爱慕之情，爱泼斯坦自称是萨默斯的“僚机”。

Mr. Summers also resigned from the board of OpenAI, he and the company said Wednesday.

萨默斯与OpenAI方面周三均表示，他已辞去在该公司董事会的职务。

In 2023, Mr. Summers was asked to join the board of directors at OpenAI, the San Francisco-based artificial intelligence start-up valued at more than $500 billion, after a failed boardroom coup briefly ousted the company’s chief executive, Sam Altman.

2023年，旧金山人工智能初创公司OpenAI发生董事会政变，首席执行官山姆·奥特曼一度被解职，之后萨默斯受邀加入这家估值超5000亿美元的公司董事会。

Mr. Summers was seen as instrumental to repairing the fractured board, working with additional independent directors including Bret Taylor, a former Salesforce executive, and Paul M. Nakasone, a retired U.S. Army general. He sat on different board committees, including one responsible for auditing the company’s finances.

萨默斯与包括前Salesforce高管布雷特·泰勒和退休美军上将保罗·仲宗根在内的其他独立董事合作，被认为在修复分裂的董事会方面发挥了关键作用。他任职于多个董事会委员会，包括负责审计公司财务的委员会。

Over the past two years, OpenAI has since stabilized and gone on to attract tens of billions of dollars in private capital investment while developing closer ties with the federal government. President Trump has said that A.I. development is key to the country’s economic future.

过去两年间，OpenAI逐渐稳定，吸引了数百亿美元私人资本投资，同时与联邦政府建立了更紧密的联系。特朗普总统曾表示，人工智能发展是美国经济未来的关键。

Mr. Summers was also a part of helping the company, which started as a nonprofit, adopt a new for-profit structure last month. The long-sought change allows OpenAI to operate like a more traditional business, while it continues to raise the enormous sums of money it needs to develop artificial intelligence. (The Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied the suit’s claims.)

萨默斯还参与协助这家最初为非营利机构的公司于上月转型为营利性结构。这一长期寻求的变革使OpenAI能像传统企业一样运营，同时继续筹集发展人工智能所需的巨额资金。（《纽约时报》已起诉OpenAI和微软，指控其人工智能系统侵犯新闻内容版权，两家公司均否认了相关指控。）

“We appreciate his many contributions and the perspective he brought to the board,” OpenAI’s board of directors said in a statement to The Times on Wednesday.

“我们感谢他的诸多贡献以及他为董事会带来的视角，”OpenAI董事会周三在给《纽约时报》的声明中表示。

Mr. Summers has shed a number of other positions this week, after saying on Monday that he was stepping back from public commitments to focus on rebuilding trust and repairing relations. He has severed relationships with the Center for American Progress and the Center for Global Development, two think tanks. The New York Times Opinion section said in a statement that it would not renew Mr. Summers’s contract as a contributing writer.

本周，萨默斯已辞去多个其他职位。他周一表示，将暂停公共事务相关工作，专注于重建信任和修复关系。他已中止了同美国进步中心和全球发展中心这两家智库的关系。《纽约时报》观点版发表声明称，将不再续签萨默斯的专栏作家合同。

On Monday, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, urged Harvard to cut ties with Mr. Summers.

周一，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦敦促哈佛与萨默斯切断联系。

Mr. Summers is a tenured professor at Harvard and will retain that title as he steps away during the investigation. Videos posted online Tuesday showed Mr. Summers briefly addressing his communications with Mr. Epstein to a lecture hall of students.

萨默斯是哈佛终身教授，暂停工作接受调查期间将保留这一头衔。周二网上流传的视频显示，萨默斯在演讲厅向学生简要回应了他与爱泼斯坦的通信事件。

“Some of you will have seen my statement of regret, expressing my shame with respect to what I did in communication with Mr. Epstein,” Mr. Summers told the class. “And that I’ve said that I’m going to step back from public activities, but — for a time — but that I think it’s very important that I fulfill my teaching obligations.”

“你们中的一些人可能已经看到了我的致歉声明，我对自己与爱泼斯坦的通信行为感到羞愧，”萨默斯对学生们说。“我已表示将暂时暂停公共活动，但是——在短期内——我认为履行教学职责非常重要。”

He changed his mind a day later.

一天后，他改变了主意。

Mr. Epstein, who died by suicide in jail in 2019, had a long relationship with Harvard, donating more than $9 million before he pleaded guilty to sex crimes in 2008, according to a 2020 Harvard report.

根据哈佛2020年的一份报告，2019年在狱中自杀的爱泼斯坦与哈佛有着长期联系，2008年就性犯罪认罪前，他曾向哈佛捐赠了超过900万美元。

When Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, unveiled the company’s Superintelligence Lab in June, he named 11 artificial intelligence researchers who were joining his ambitious effort to build a machine more powerful than the human brain.

6月，Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格公布该公司的超级智能实验室时，列出了11位加入这一雄心勃勃计划的人工智能研究员，他们的目标是打造一台比人类大脑更强大的机器。

All 11 were immigrants educated in other countries. Seven were born in China, according to a memo viewed by The New York Times.

这11人全部是在其他国家接受教育的移民。据《纽约时报》看到的一份备忘录显示，其中七人出生于中国。

Although many American executives, government officials and pundits have spent months painting China as the enemy of America’s rapid push into A.I., much of the groundbreaking research emerging from the United States is driven by Chinese talent.

尽管数月来许多美国企业高管、政府官员和专家一直将中国描绘成阻碍美国人工智能快速发展的敌人，但美国众多突破性研究的背后都由中国人才推动。

Two new studies show that researchers born and educated in China have for years played major roles inside leading U.S. artificial intelligence labs. They also continue to drive important A.I. research in industry and academia, despite the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration and growing anti-China sentiment in Silicon Valley.

两项新研究表明，多年来，在中国出生并接受教育的研究人员一直在美国顶尖人工智能实验室扮演重要角色。尽管特朗普政府收紧移民政策，硅谷反华情绪日益高涨，这些人仍在产业界和学术界推动着重要的人工智能研究。

The research, from two organizations, provides a detailed look at how much the American tech industry continues to rely on engineers from China, particularly in A.I. The findings also offer a more nuanced understanding of how researchers in the two countries continue to collaborate, despite increasingly heated language from Washington and Beijing.

这两项分别来自两家机构的研究详细揭示了美国科技行业对中国工程师的持续依赖，尤其是在人工智能领域。研究结果还让人们更全面地认识到，尽管华盛顿和北京的措辞日益激烈，但两国研究人员仍在继续合作。

In 2020, a study from the Paulson Institute, which promotes constructive ties between the United States and China, estimated that Chinese A.I. researchers accounted for nearly one-third of the world’s top A.I. talent. Most of those Chinese researchers worked for American companies and universities.

2020年，致力于促进美中建设性关系的保尔森研究所发布研究称，中国人工智能研究员约占全球顶尖人工智能人才的近三分之一。这些中国研究员大多就职于美国企业和高校。

A new study from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace shows that a vast majority of these Chinese researchers have continued to work for U.S. institutions. Of the 100 top-tier Chinese researchers in the original study who were at U.S. universities or companies in 2019 — three years before the arrival of ChatGPT set off the global A.I. boom — 87 are still doing research at U.S. universities or companies.

卡内基国际和平基金会的一项新研究显示，这些中国研究员中的绝大多数仍在为美国机构工作。2019年（三年后，ChatGPT的问世引发全球人工智能热潮）入选原研究的100位就职于美国高校或企业的顶尖中国研究员中，有87位如今仍在美国高校或企业从事研究工作。

“The U.S. A.I. industry is the biggest beneficiary of Chinese talent,” said Matt Sheehan, an analyst who helped write both studies. “It gets so many top-tier researchers from China who come to work in the U.S., study in the U.S. and, as this study shows, stay in the U.S., despite all the tensions and obstacles that have been thrown at them in recent years.”

“美国人工智能行业是中国人才的最大受益者，”参与两项研究撰写的分析师马特·希恩说。“尽管近年来面临种种紧张局势和阻碍，但美国仍吸引了大量来自中国的顶尖研究员——他们来美国工作、学习，而且正如这项研究所示，选择留在美国。”

There is still significant collaboration between the two nations. A separate study from alphaXiv, a company that helps people track and use the latest A.I. research, shows that since 2018, joint research between America and China happens more often than collaboration between any other two nations.

美中两国之间仍存在大量合作。帮助人们追踪和利用最新人工智能研究的公司alphaXiv的另一项研究显示，2018年以来，美中联合研究的频率超过了其他任何双边合作。

Many in Silicon Valley fear that Chinese nationals could steal secrets from U.S. companies and share them with the Chinese government. Those fears are not unfounded. In early 2023, for example, a hacker gained access to the internal messaging systems of OpenAI and stole details about the design of the company’s A.I. technologies.

硅谷许多人担心，中国公民可能会从美国公司窃取机密并分享给中国政府。这种担忧并非毫无根据。例如，2023年初，一名黑客入侵了OpenAI的内部通讯系统，窃取了该公司人工智能技术设计的相关细节。

(The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. OpenAI and Microsoft have denied those claims.)

（《纽约时报》已起诉OpenAI和微软，指控其人工智能系统侵犯新闻内容版权。OpenAI和微软均否认相关指控。）

But analysts like Mr. Sheehan argue that the risk of espionage is far outweighed by the benefits of hiring and collaborating with Chinese talent. They worry that if the Trump administration expands its crackdown on Chinese talent in the United States, the move could seriously harm U.S. research.

但希恩等分析人士认为，聘用中国人才进行合作带来的收益远大于间谍活动的风险。他们担心，如果特朗普政府扩大对美国境内中国人才的打压，可能会严重损害美国的研究事业。

“This is seen as a real threat to U.S. companies’ edge in A.I.,” said Helen Toner, interim executive director at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

“这被视为对美国企业人工智能优势的真正威胁，”乔治敦大学安全与新兴技术中心临时执行董事海伦·托纳说。

Without the flow of talented Chinese researchers into the United States, Silicon Valley companies would fall behind in the global race — namely, to China.

若失去中国研究人才输送渠道，硅谷企业将在全球竞争中落后，尤其是落后于中国。

Even before Mr. Zuckerberg started aggressively hiring for his new Superintelligence Lab, Meta’s A.I. efforts relied heavily on Chinese talent. New hires in Meta’s A.I. division are often told jokingly that there are two languages they should know. The first is Hack, the company’s in-house programming language. The second is Mandarin, according to three people familiar with the culture of the company’s A.I. teams.

早在扎克伯格大举为新的超级智能实验室招兵买马之前，Meta的人工智能项目就已高度依赖中国人才。据三位了解该公司人工智能团队文化的人士透露，Meta人工智能部门的新员工常被开玩笑说，他们需要掌握两种语言：第一种是公司内部编程语言Hack，第二种是普通话。

This year, Meta received approvals for around 6,300 H1-B visas, which allow companies to hire skilled workers from other countries. This was second only to Amazon, according to data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. The company has also collaborated with Chinese organizations on at least 28 prominent research papers since 2018, according to alphaXiv.

今年，Meta获得了约6300份H1-B签证批准——这类签证允许企业聘用外国技术工人。根据美国公民及移民服务局的数据，这一数字仅次于亚马逊。alphaXiv的数据显示，自2018年以来，该公司还与中国机构合作发表了至少28篇颇具影响力的研究论文。

Since 2018, companies like Apple, Google, Intel and Salesforce have collaborated with Chinese organizations on widely read research papers, according to the new study from alphaXiv. Microsoft, which has long operated research labs in China, has collaborated with Chinese organizations more than any other company, sharing credit on at least 92 important papers.

根据alphaXiv的新研究显示，2018年以来，苹果、谷歌、英特尔、Salesforce等公司均与中国机构合作发表过被广泛引用的研究论文。长期在中国运营研究实验室的微软，与中国机构的合作次数远超其他任何公司，至少在92篇重要论文上共同署名。

Many Chinese researchers say studying and working in the United States has become more difficult. They often have trouble securing visas, they say, and are wary of leaving the country for fear that U.S. officials will not let them back in.

许多中国研究人员表示，在美国学习和工作变得越来越困难。他们说，签证办理经常受阻，同时担心离境后会被美国当局拒绝入境。

But as the Carnegie Endowment study shows, some leading Chinese researchers have returned to institutions in China after stints with U.S. organizations. Tensions are also rising inside some U.S. companies. Last month, a Chinese researcher, Yao Shunyu, said in a blog post that he had left the San Francisco start-up Anthropic for Google in part because company executives publicly labeled China a serious security threat.

但卡内基国际和平基金会的研究显示，部分顶尖中国研究员在美国机构工作一段时间后，已选择回国发展。一些美国公司内部的紧张局势也在加剧。上月，中国研究人员姚舜宇（音）在博客帖子中表示，他已从旧金山初创公司Anthropic跳槽至谷歌，部分原因是Anthropic高管公开将中国列为“严重安全威胁”。

“I strongly disagree with the anti-China statements,” Dr. Shunyu wrote. “I believe most of the people at Anthropic will disagree with such a statement, yet I don’t think there is a way for me to stay.”

“我强烈反对这些反华言论，”姚舜宇写道。“我相信Anthropic的大多数人都会反对这样的说法，但我觉得自己已无法继续留在那里。”

The Dutch government said on Wednesday that it was handing back control of the chipmaker Nexperia to its Chinese parent company, in an effort to ease tensions that had flared after the Netherlands was caught in a tussle between Washington and Beijing over electronics supply chains.

荷兰政府周三表示，将把芯片制造商安世半导体的控制权交还给其中国母公司，以缓解因荷兰陷入美中电子供应链争端而引发的紧张局势。

Dutch officials made the decision after consulting with the European and international partners and “constructive meetings” with the Chinese authorities, the Dutch economic affairs minister, Vincent Karremans, said in a social media post.

荷兰经济大臣文森特·卡雷曼斯在社交媒体发文称，荷兰官员在与欧洲及国际伙伴协商，并与中国当局举行“建设性会议”后，作出了这一决定。

The Dutch government had taken over Nexperia, which is owned by the Chinese company Wingtech, on Sept. 30, after the United States expanded a trade blacklist that meant Nexperia would face strict controls on its operations. The Netherlands said then that company decisions would be determined by Mr. Karremans, and that it had taken that step in an effort to prevent Nexperia’s products from becoming unavailable in an emergency.

9月30日，美国扩大贸易黑名单导致安世半导体的运营将面临严格管控，荷兰政府随后接管了这家由中国闻泰科技控股的公司。荷兰方面当时表示，公司决策将由卡雷曼斯大臣决定，采取这一步骤是为了防止安世半导体的产品在紧急情况下断供。

Nexperia has headquarters in the Dutch city of Nijmegen and employs thousands of people across Europe, the United States and Asia. It operates a supply chain that spans the globe, designing and manufacturing older types of chips used in cars and electronics.

安世半导体总部位于荷兰奈梅亨市，在欧洲、美国和亚洲拥有数以千计的员工。该公司拥有遍布全球的供应链，设计并制造用于汽车和电子产品的成熟制程芯片。

The uncertainty over the availability of Nexperia’s chips had raised concerns of a global shortage among automakers like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, which use the chips to power systems like windshield wipers and brakes. The Japanese automaker Nissan said earlier this month that it would cut production at two plants because of a lack of the chips.

安世半导体芯片供应的不确定性引发了大众、奔驰等车企对全球芯片短缺的担忧，这些芯片用于驱动雨刷和刹车等系统。日本车企日产本月早些时候表示，因缺少这类芯片，将削减两家工厂的产量。

The company is just one of those caught in the battle for the global chip industry, in which both the United States and China have claimed authority over supply chains for semiconductors and rare earth minerals, critical components for today’s technologies.

该公司只是卷入全球芯片产业争夺战的众多企业之一。美中两国均声称要主导半导体和稀土矿物的供应链，而这些都是当今科技产品的关键组成部分。

Mr. Karremans gave no details of the reasons behind Wednesday’s decision but said it had been taken “as a show of good will.”

卡雷曼斯未透露周三这一决定背后的具体原因，但表示此举旨在“展现善意”。

“We are positive about the measures already taken by the Chinese authorities to ensure the supply of chips to Europe and the rest of the world,” he said in the statement. He said that talks with the Chinese authorities would continue.

“我们对中国当局为确保向欧洲及全球其他地区供应芯片所采取的措施持积极态度，”他在声明中说，并指出与中国当局的会谈将继续进行。

The U.S. Department of Commerce placed trade restrictions on Wingtech last December. In June, American officials told the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs that Nexperia could be next, unless the company replaced its Chinese chief executive, Zhang Xuezheng.

美国商务部去年12月对闻泰科技实施了贸易限制。今年6月，美国官员告知荷兰外交部，除非安世半导体更换其中国籍首席执行官张学政，否则该公司将成为下一个被制裁的对象。

There are moments in great-power politics when the tectonic plates seem to shift perceptibly beneath us. The recent summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China was one of those inflection points.

在大国政治中，总有一些时刻会让人清晰感受到地缘战略格局的变迁。美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平近期的峰会正是这样的转折点之一。

The two leaders agreed during their meeting on Oct. 30 to pause the trade war that Mr. Trump launched this year. But the real story to emerge from the event was not the inconclusive truce they reached in the South Korean city of Busan but the unmistakable demonstration that China could now face America as a true peer.

两位领导人在10月30日的会晤中同意暂停特朗普在今年发起的贸易战。但这次会晤的真正意义并非在于双方在韩国城市釜山达成的贸易战阶段性停火协议，而在于它清楚地表明，中国已具备与美国平起平坐的实力。

China absorbed the full weight of American economic pressure and retaliated successfully with greater pressure of its own, weaponizing its dominance of global supply chains on which America relies, particularly rare earth minerals and magnets. After decades of deindustrialization, a poorly prepared United States would not — or could not — respond.

中国不仅顶住了美国全方位的经济施压，更是通过运用自己在美国所依赖的全球供应链的主导地位——特别是稀土矿物与磁体领域，以更具威慑力的反制措施成功实施反击。在经历了数十年产业空心化之后，准备不足的美国既无意也无力作出回应。

If historians someday try to identify exactly when China became America’s geopolitical equal, they might point to the outcome of Mr. Trump’s ill-considered trade war.

如果未来的历史学家要明确中国在地缘政治上开始与美国平起平坐的确切时点，他们也许会认为是特朗普轻率发起的贸易战的结局。

This reckoning comes at a critical time.

这个历史性转折偏偏发生在一个至关紧要的时刻。

We are halfway through what strategists in both U.S. political parties believe will be a decisive decade that determines whether America can avoid falling behind China economically, technologically and militarily. Mr. Trump’s team is moving urgently to bring manufacturing back to the United States, rebalance trade and rebuild the defense industrial base.

我们如今已经走过了这个决定性十年的前半程，两党战略家都认为，这十年将决定美国能否避免在经济、技术和军事方面落于中国之后。特朗普团队正采取紧急行动推动制造业回流、重塑贸易格局并重建国防工业基础。

The outcome of the recent summit could undercut those important efforts.

最近这次峰会的结果可能会削弱这些重要的努力。

Mr. Trump framed the meeting as a U.S.-China “G2,” diminishing the importance of allies whose help America needs to reindustrialize at home and balance China abroad. And by showing Beijing that its coercive tools work, Mr. Trump risks inviting more pressure, potentially giving China veto power over his “America First” agenda.

特朗普将会晤定位为中美“G2”模式，这是对盟友体系重要性的贬低，而美国既需借助盟友实现本国的再工业化，又需依靠它们在海外牵制中国。同时，特朗普让北京看到它的胁迫工具确实行之有效，他有可能因此招来更多来自中国的施压，甚至让中国获得对其“美国优先”议程的否决权。

None of this had to happen. The road to Busan began with needless provocation by Mr. Trump. In February, he reignited the trade war that he started in his first term, levying tariffs on Chinese goods that eventually rose past 140 percent. But he failed to first assess America’s own vulnerabilities or shore up its supply chains. By contrast, Beijing had spent the years since 2018, when Mr. Trump first began imposing tariffs, preparing for exactly this moment.

这一切本可避免。通往釜山之路始于特朗普的无谓挑衅。今年2月，他重启首个任期发起的贸易战，将中国商品关税最终提升至140%以上，却未预先评估美国自身的脆弱性或先夯实自己的供应链。相比之下，自2018年特朗普首次加征关税以来，北京一直在为这一刻做准备。

Backed into a corner, Mr. Xi reached for his break-glass tool. In April, he halted exports to the United States of rare earths minerals and magnets — critical materials for everything from cars to missiles — an escalation beyond anything he had threatened under President Joe Biden. It was a calculated risk given the potential for more American retaliation. But Mr. Xi gambled that Mr. Trump would fold. He was right. In May, Mr. Trump radically reduced tariffs and pursued de-escalation.

被逼到墙角的习近平使出了他的杀手锏。4月，他暂停向美国出口稀土矿物及磁体——这些关键材料广泛应用于汽车至导弹等各个领域——这是他在拜登总统任内从未采取过的升级行动。鉴于美国可能进一步报复，这是一步经过计算的险棋。但习近平押注特朗普会让步。他赌赢了。5月，特朗普大幅降低关税并寻求冲突降级。

Emboldened, China wielded rare earths again in October — and raised the stakes dramatically. Using the pretext of new U.S. export controls, Beijing responded with a sweeping licensing regime requiring companies anywhere in the world to obtain China’s approval not only to buy the country’s rare earths but to sell any product made with even trace amounts of them.

此举鼓舞了中国，到了10月，北京再度挥舞稀土大棒，且大幅加码。它以新的美国口管制为由，建立全面许可制度，要求全球任何企业不仅采购中国稀土需获批准，连销售含微量中国稀土的产品亦需获得许可。

It was an unthinkable escalation, well beyond anything Washington had ever attempted, and a gun to the head for U.S. and global manufacturing.

这种升级程度超乎想象，远远超出华盛顿曾采取过的任何手段，对美国和全球制造业而言犹如枪顶在了脑门上。

Mr. Trump’s team readied drastic countermeasures — from new chip controls to financial sanctions — that might have forced Beijing to question its coercive approach. Instead, Mr. Trump flinched, shelving those options and retreating to the familiar comfort of tariffs — by now an empty threat since he had lifted them in the spring after Beijing halted rare earths exports. By the time the leaders met in Busan, Mr. Trump’s earlier bravado was nowhere to be seen. He chose to de-escalate, and cut tariffs again, among other concessions.

特朗普的团队原本准备了激烈的反制措施——从新的芯片管制到金融制裁——这些手段本可能迫使北京方面重新审视其胁迫策略。然而，特朗普最终退缩了，把这些选项搁置一旁，转而退回到他熟悉的关税措施——但自从他今春在北京停止稀土出口后取消关税以来，这种威胁已然失效。当两位领导人在釜山会晤时，特朗普先前的虚张声势已不复存在。他选择了降级冲突，并做出了包括再次降低关税在内的让步。

With the dust now settled, Mr. Trump has not only revealed the limits of America’s resolve to its greatest rival, but has left the United States worse off than when he started this fight.

尘埃落定后，特朗普不仅向最大对手暴露了美国战略决心的局限性，更让美国处境较开启贸易战之前更为不堪。

Beijing has resumed imports of U.S. soybeans — one of America’s major exports to China — but at lower volumes than before. China has postponed its new licensing regime on rare earths for a year, but fear that China might invoke it in the future has already caused the Trump administration to suspend export restrictions that would have tightened controls on Chinese-linked firms. China also received a ten percent tariff reduction for pledging to crack down on production of fentanyl precursors. But that brings its tariff rate closer to that of American allies and partners, which reduces incentives for American businesses to diversify their suppliers to countries other than China.

北京恢复了从美国进口大豆——大豆是美国对中国的主要出口商品之一——但采购量已不及以往。中国将其新的稀土许可制度推迟一年实施，但由于担心中国未来可能启用该措施，特朗普政府已经暂停了那些旨在对中国关联企业加强管控的出口限制措施。此外，中国承诺打击芬太尼前体化学品的生产，因此获得了10%的关税减让。但这使中国的关税水平更接近美国的盟友与伙伴，从而降低了美国企业将供应链从中国转移至其他国家的动力。

The reverberations of Mr. Trump’s mishandling of China will echo far beyond trade. U.S. allies may now have reason to doubt America’s ability to stand with them when it cannot even stand up for itself. Beijing may feel emboldened to test U.S. resolve on Taiwan and other issues. China, after all, has other chokepoints it can weaponize, such as its dominance over the production of pharmaceutical ingredients for dozens of critical drugs, including antibiotics.

特朗普对华政策的失误产生的涟漪效应将远远超出贸易范畴。当美国连自身立场都无法坚守时，其盟友自然有理由怀疑华盛顿履行承诺的能力。北京在台湾等议题上试探美国决心的底气可能更足。毕竟，中国还掌握着其他的命门，包括对抗生素等数十种关键药物的医药原料生产主导权。

There is an old lesson that many generals learned too late: It is unwise to invade Russia in the winter. The economic corollary should now be equally clear. It is unwise to start a trade war with the main supplier of your most critical imports until you have mitigated your vulnerabilities. Mr. Trump, who mistook political theater for strategy, lost ground against China not solely because he misjudged Mr. Xi but because he underestimated America’s dependence on the supply chains it no longer controls and the allies that he too often ignores.

不要在冬季入侵俄罗斯，这是许多军事将领付出惨重代价才领悟一个古老教训。其经济对应原则现在也同样明晰：在未消除自身脆弱性之前就对最关键进口品的主要供应国发动贸易战，这绝非明智之举。误将政治作秀当作战略谋划的特朗普之所以在与中国的较量中落于下风，不仅源于对习近平的误判，还因为他低估了美国对那些自己已不再掌控的供应链的依赖，以及对那些他屡屡轻慢的盟友的依赖。

Building and wielding national power is deadly serious business. It takes more than bluster. It takes patience, endurance, planning and the discipline to know when to fight and when not to.

建设并运用国家力量是一件极其严肃的事。光靠虚张声势是不够的，更需要耐心、规划，以及知道什么时候出手、什么时候收手的定力。

China understood that when it was weaker — steadily building its strength over the course of decades and avoiding premature tests of power. Mr. Trump, who blithely took American primacy for granted, is only now learning that lesson.

中国在实力尚弱时就深谙此道——它在数十年间稳步积蓄实力，避免过早地接受实力的考验。而轻率地将美国的主导地位视为理所当然的特朗普，直到此刻才逐渐领悟这个道理。

It’s the one story line President Trump hasn’t been able to evade.

这是特朗普总统始终无法摆脱的一个舆论叙事。

During his first term and now in his second, Mr. Trump has managed to deflect and defeat news cycles he views as negative to him, often by quickly diverting the media and public’s attention to a new topic.

无论是在第一个任期还是现在的第二个任期里，特朗普总有办法转移和击败那些在他看来对自己不利的新闻风向，惯用手法是迅速将媒体和公众注意力引向新话题。

With a “flood the zone” strategy of doing everything, everywhere, all at once, Mr. Trump often generates multiple news cycles per day. White House officials believe that when the news is focused on immigration, crime or the president’s peacemaking efforts abroad, Mr. Trump is winning. As such, if Mr. Trump doesn’t like one news cycle, he can fire off an all-caps Truth Social post and create another.

通过“铺天盖地”策略，也就是同时在各领域多线出击，特朗普经常能够在一天之内制造多个新闻议题。白宫官员相信，当舆论聚焦移民问题、犯罪或总统在海外促成和平的努力上，就意味着特朗普掌握了主动权。因此，若对某个新闻风向不满，他只需用全大写字母在Truth Social平台发帖即可开启新话题。

But the Epstein files — which carry with them a constant reminder of the president’s friendship with a sex offender — have dogged him in a way few other issues have. Nothing Mr. Trump has tried to do to get them out of the news has worked.

但爱泼斯坦案档案却如影随形地困扰着他，这是少有其他议题能做到的。这些档案不断提醒公众总统与这名性犯罪者的交情，而特朗普为平息舆论采取的所有手段均不起作用。

Mr. Trump has sought to distract from the files, complaining that the public should focus instead on his administration’s successes. He ordered Republicans to stop talking about them. He tried to bully House Republicans into killing their effort to get them released. When his attempts failed, an increasingly frustrated Mr. Trump threatened primary campaigns against G.O.P. members who cross him, and even accused one of his biggest supporters of being a “traitor.”

特朗普曾试图转移公众对这些档案的关注，抱怨民众应该把焦点放在他的执政成就上。他下令共和党人不要再谈论这些档案。他试图强压众议院共和党人放弃推动档案解密。当这些努力失败后，日益焦躁的特朗普威胁要对忤逆他的共和党成员启动初选阻击，甚至指责自己的一名头号支持者是“叛徒”。

But the lawmakers pushing for the files to be released have defeated the master of attention domination.

然而，推动档案公开的立法者们最终战胜了这位注意力操控大师。

With Mr. Trump set to lose a vote in the House over the release of the files, the president on Sunday reluctantly embraced the legislation to call on his own administration to release the documents it was withholding. Mr. Trump made clear he was doing so only grudgingly, still referring to the files as nothing more than a “hoax.” Mr. Trump has denied any involvement in or knowledge of Mr. Epstein’s sex-trafficking operation.

在众议院关于公开爱泼斯坦案档案的表决中注定面临败局的情况下，特朗普总统于上周日勉强接受了这项要求其政府公开档案的立法。他明确表示自己只是迫于无奈，仍声称这些档案纯属“骗局”。特朗普始终否认自己参与或知晓爱泼斯坦的性交易活动。

特朗普周日晚间表示，国会应投票决定公开爱泼斯坦案文件。

On Tuesday, the House voted 427 to 1 to force the Trump administration to release more files from the investigation into Mr. Epstein, who died by suicide in jail in 2019 while facing charges of sex trafficking minors. The Senate quickly moved to pass the measure as well.

周二，众议院以427票对1票通过了决议，要求特朗普政府公开更多与爱泼斯坦调查相关的档案。爱泼斯坦于2019年在狱中自杀，当时他正面临贩卖未成年人性交易的指控。参议院随后也迅速行动，通过了该议案。

“There is hope here,” said Representative Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, one of the sponsors of the bill that so angered Mr. Trump. “We fought the president, the attorney general, the F.B.I. director, the speaker of the House and the vice president to get this win.”

“曙光终现，”肯塔基州共和党众议员托马斯·马西表示。这位令特朗普大为恼火的议案联合发起人指出：“我们战胜了总统、司法部长、联邦调查局局长、众议院议长和副总统才赢得这场胜利。”

Mr. Massie said he had little optimism of forcing the release of the files when he started the effort, but Republican women rallied around the cause. Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Nancy Mace of South Carolina were some of the most committed supporters, crossing the president and demanding any information from the files that could shed light on the abuse of women and girls.

马西坦言，当初启动档案公开行动时本不抱期望，但共和党女性同僚的鼎力支持改变了局面。佐治亚州众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林、科罗拉多州众议员劳伦·贝伯特和南卡罗来纳州众议员南希·梅斯成为最坚定的支持者，她们违背总统意愿，坚持要求公开所有可能揭示妇女儿童遭受侵害的档案。

“They were pressured in ways that you cannot even imagine, and they stood strong, and that’s why we’re here today,” Mr. Massie said. “They didn’t take us seriously over at the executive branch or in the Senate, because they always thought they could flip one of these women, they could convince them or control them, or intimidate them into taking their names off of this petition, but they did not succeed.”

“她们承受了难以想象的压力，但依然坚定不移，这正是我们今天能走到这一步的原因，”马西说。“行政部门和参议院当初根本不把我们放在眼里，以为总能说服、操控或恐吓这些女性撤回联署，但他们终究未能得逞。”

Ms. Greene said Mr. Trump’s attacks on her over the Epstein files had subjected her to a torrent of threats. At a news conference on Tuesday at the Capitol with women who said they were victims of Mr. Epstein’s abuse, Ms. Greene responded to the president.

格林表示，特朗普就爱泼斯坦案档案对她发起的攻击导致她遭受了大量威胁。周二在国会大厦与自称爱泼斯坦案受害女性的联合记者会上，格林对总统的言论作出了回应。

众议员托马斯·马西周二在国会大厦外与其他立法者及自称遭受爱泼斯坦侵害的女性举行新闻发布会。

“He called me a traitor for standing with these women,” Ms. Greene said. “Let me tell you what a traitor is. A traitor is an American that serves foreign countries and themselves.”

“他因为我支持这些女性就称我为叛徒，”格林说。“我来告诉你什么才是叛徒。叛徒是为外国和私利服务的美国人。”

For years, the allegations of sexual abuse against Mr. Epstein — and his close connections to the rich and powerful — have fueled a desire for the release of more documents about his case to expose any other potential abusers. During his 2024 campaign, Mr. Trump said he would release the files as president.

多年来，针对爱泼斯坦性侵行为的指控——及其与权贵阶层的密切往来——持续推动着要求公开更多案件档案的呼声，以期揭露其他潜在犯罪者。在2024年竞选期间，特朗普曾承诺若当选将公开这些档案。

But the Epstein case quickly turned Washington politics upside down.

但爱泼斯坦案很快颠覆了华盛顿的政治格局。

In the early days of Mr. Trump’s second term, releasing the files was an intense focus of the Trump administration. More than 1,000 F.B.I. employees, some of them on 24-hour shifts, were ordered to review the files. Attorney General Pam Bondi released binders full of documents titled “The Epstein Files, Phase 1.”

在特朗普第二任期之初，公开档案曾是政府的工作重点。逾千名联邦调查局雇员被要求轮班审查档案，部分人员甚至需24小时连轴转。司法部长帕姆·邦迪率先公布了《爱泼斯坦档案·第一阶段》活页夹。

But there was never a “Phase 2.”

但《第二阶段》活页夹就没有了下文。

Instead, the Justice Department released an unsigned memo in July saying that its review of the files “revealed no incriminating ‘client list.’”

相反，司法部在7月发布了一份未署名的备忘录，称经审查“未发现可以定罪的‘客户名单’”。

By this time, Ms. Bondi had already informed Mr. Trump that his name appeared in the files.

而此时，邦迪早已向特朗普汇报过其名出现在档案中的事实。

The politics on the issue shifted. Democrats sensed the administration had grown defensive, and loudly joined calls to release the files.

此事引发的政治风向随之转变。民主党人察觉到政府转入守势，遂高调加入要求公开档案的呼声。

Mr. Trump’s allies on Capitol Hill, including Speaker Mike Johnson, fought the passage of what’s known as a “discharge petition” to demand that the Justice Department release all of its investigation files. They even went so far as to shut down the House early in July, grinding the legislative business of Washington to a halt.

特朗普在国会山的盟友，包括议长迈克·约翰逊，一直竭力阻挠要求司法部公开全部调查档案的“强制推动表决动议”通过。他们甚至在7月初强行让众议院休会，导致华盛顿立法机构陷入停摆。

Although Mr. Johnson voted for the measure on Tuesday, he derided it as a “show vote” and a “political weapon.” The speaker has circulated a legal memo outlining what he says are the “dangers” of the discharge petition, including what he says is the airing of “noncredible allegations” against “innocent persons.”

尽管约翰逊周二投票支持该动议，却斥责这是“作秀式表决”和“政治武器”。这位议长散发的法律备忘录中强调了他所谓“强制推动表决动议”的种种“危害”，包括声称针对“无辜者”的“不实指控”会传播开来。

“They’re trying to attack President Trump,” Mr. Johnson said.

“他们是在蓄意攻击特朗普总统，”约翰逊表示。

Despite his newfound support of the measure, Mr. Trump made clear Tuesday he was not happy about it.

尽管转而支持这项动议，特朗普周二仍明确表达了不满。

When an ABC News reporter in the Oval Office asked Mr. Trump about releasing the files, the president lashed out.

当一名美国广播公司新闻记者在椭圆形办公室问及档案公开事宜时，总统大为光火。

“You’re a terrible person and a terrible reporter,” Mr. Trump said, adding: “As far as the Epstein files, I have nothing to do with Jeffrey Epstein.”

“你真差劲，什么烂记者，”特朗普说道，“至于爱泼斯坦档案，我与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦毫无瓜葛。”

Promising a socialist utopia built with the toil of ordinary farmers, Mao Zedong singled out the remote mountain village of Dazhai as proof that faith in the Communist Party and hard work could conquer the harshest terrain.

毛泽东曾以偏远山村大寨为榜样，宣称凭借普通农民的辛勤劳动就能建造出社会主义乌托邦，证明对共产党的信仰和勤奋工作足以征服最艰苦的地形。

The villagers, wielding pick axes, hoes and their bare hands more than half a century ago, were said to have carved terraces out of stony hillsides, hauling soil to turn barren slopes into miraculously bountiful fields of corn.

半个多世纪以前，村民们据称用锄头、镐头和双手，在多石的山坡上开辟出梯田，运来泥土，奇迹般地把贫瘠的山坡变成了丰产的玉米地。

More than 10 million Chinese visited the tiny village in Shanxi Province in northern China, obeying Mao’s order to “learn from Dazhai” and soak up its history of hardship and anticapitalist fervor. Most came during China’s disastrous 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, during which Dazhai’s semiliterate party boss, Chen Yonggui, was elevated to the Politburo in Beijing.

响应毛泽东向大寨学习的号召，逾千万中国人曾造访这座位于中国北方山西省的小村庄，学习它艰苦奋斗与反资本主义的热忱精神。其中多数人是在1966-1976年灾难性的“文化大革命”时期到访，当时作为半文盲的大寨党支书陈永贵被推举至北京的中央政治局。

Today, the farmers of Dazhai have mostly vanished. Many of their terraces have crumbled, while machines and corporate farming have replaced their labor on those that remain.

如今，大寨的农民已经基本上消失。许多梯田已经塌陷，机器和企业化农业取代了人力，在仅存的梯田上劳作。

Villagers now mainly work to serve the one thing that hasn’t changed: Dazhai’s role as a place of pilgrimage and symbol of what the Communist Party would like China to be, though what exactly that is keeps changing.

如今村民们的工作主要是为了一件依然没有改变的事：大寨作为朝圣地和一种象征的地位——它象征着共产党希望中国成为的样子，尽管这个愿景本身也在不断变化。

大寨展览馆的立体模型中，矗立着陈永贵（右二）的塑像。他曾担任大寨村委书记，是大寨官方神话的核心人物。大寨红色博物馆陈列着宣传海报和毛泽东半身像，这座半私营的盈利机构有大量毛泽东时代鼎盛时期的文物。

Visitors today are mostly older people with fond memories of their youth in the ’60s and ’70s, but they also include younger Chinese bused in on party-organized tours. The place is a must-see stop on China’s sprawling “red tourism” trail of party heritage sites, combining mass tourism frippery with what Xi Jinping, China’s leader and a big fan of party history, calls “moral nourishment.”

如今的游客多是怀念自己六七十年代青春岁月的老一辈人，但也包括参加党组织的旅行团的年轻人。这里是中国绵延不绝的“红色旅游”路线上的必经之地，这条路线串联起众多党的历史遗迹，既融合了大众旅游的浮华，又承载着热衷党史的中国领导人习近平所说的“精神滋养”。

Primitive cave homes in the middle of what used to be Dazhai’s “people’s commune,” the village’s only employer, have been turned into a boutique hotel, which opened last year backed by investment from a coal company.

大寨的“人民公社”曾经是村里唯一的雇主，如今，曾经位于大寨中心的简陋窑洞被改造成一家精品酒店，在一家煤炭公司的投资支持下于去年开业。

On Tiger Head Mountain, the focus of what were once trumpeted as superhuman feats led by the party chief — hauling soil to make rocky ground fit for planting — terraced fields have mostly been abandoned because they were too small and unstable for heavy farm machinery. (Parts of the story turned out to be fake; much of the real work was done by the army, not locals, and with the help of machines.)

虎头山曾是那位书记领导民众实现了被吹捧为非凡壮举的重点地带——运来泥土，使得岩石地面适合耕种——如今梯田大多已被废弃，因其面积太小，不够稳定，不能使用重型农业机械。（部分事迹经证实系造假；大部分真正的工作由军队完成的，而不是当地农民，而且借助了机器的力量。）

The mountain has become a tourist attraction that charges for admission. It has a Buddhist temple, but its main draw is the grave of a dedicated atheist, Chen, the former party boss.

这座山如今已成为收费景点。山上有座佛教寺庙，但主要吸引游客的却是那位坚定的无神论者、党支部书记陈永贵的墓地。

大寨村的大门上，两则毛泽东时代的标语重新焕发光彩：左侧是“自力更生”，右侧则是“奋发图强”。大寨梯田是村民们将瘠薄土地开垦为肥沃农田的努力，在毛泽东领导下的中国共产党眼中堪称壮举，但官方叙事夸大了他们的成就。

A group of young women, party members at a state-run energy company who were on a recent “study tour” of Dazhai, giggled nervously when asked what a discredited Mao-era model village had to do with today’s China.

最近，某国有能源公司一群年轻的女性党员来大寨参加“研修团”。当被问及这个已经被揭穿的毛泽东时代模范村庄与当今中国有何关联时，她们不安地咯咯笑起来。

One woman eventually answered, “The spirit of self-reliance,” using the Chinese phrase “zili gengsheng,” a Maoist slogan plastered in red paint on walls around the village.

一个女人最后用中文回答说：“自力更生”，这是一个毛主义的口号，用红漆涂在村子周围的墙上。

Self-reliance — the literal translation is “regeneration through one’s own efforts” — is a slogan for all seasons. It was first declared the party’s guiding principle by Mao in 1945, four years before he seized power in Beijing. He deemed it an invincible weapon to “defeat all Chinese and foreign reactionaries.”

自力更生是一个历久弥新的口号。1945年，毛泽东将其确立为党的指导原则，此时距离他夺取政权还有四年。他认为，这是“打败一切中外反动派”的无敌武器。

Mr. Xi doesn’t talk about reactionaries. But he has made “self-reliance” a cornerstone of the party’s efforts to meld its revolutionary past with its current pursuit of “national rejuvenation” through economic growth.

习近平不再谈论反动派，但他把“自力更生”作为共产党的核心理念，将其革命传统与当前通过经济增长实现“民族复兴”的追求融合在一起。

陈家旧居外的游客，门前陈列着毛主席的半身像。门边的条幅写着“自力更生传家宝”。公园里陈永贵的大型半身像。在毛泽东执政时期，他被任命为政治局委员。

This is a sharp shift in emphasis. For decades after Deng Xiaoping opened up the Chinese economy to the world in the late 1970s, the idea of self-reliance was played down, though it still popped up in formulaic declarations of loyalty to Mao.

这标志着政策重点的急剧转向。自邓小平于1970年代末开启中国经济的对外开放后，数十年间，自力更生理念虽仍出现在对毛泽东的公式化效忠宣言中，但整体上已被淡化。

It became “associated in China with North Korea, a byword for grim backwardness and deprivation,” said Richard McGregor, the author of “The Party,” a book on China’s political system, and a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, an Australian research center. “It was a totally negative concept.”

这个口号一度“在中国与朝鲜联系在一起，朝鲜是可怕的落后和贫困的代名词”，澳大利亚洛伊研究所东亚问题高级研究员、有关中国政治体系的著作《党》(The Party)一书的作者马利德(Richard McGregor)说。“完全是个负面的概念。”

“Nowadays, under Xi, a policy of self-reliance is tied to visions of high-tech independence, security and advancement, a kind of digital nirvana with Chinese characteristics,” Mr. McGregor said.

“如今在习近平领导下，自力更生的政策与实现高科技独立、安全和进步的愿景紧密相连，构筑出具有中国特色的数字极乐世界，”马利德说。

That policy, though far from the economic autarky promoted by Mao or North Korea, still sees the outside world as a threat. But it is now focused on investing, to make sure China is never dependent on — and therefore vulnerable to — the West, particularly for critical technologies like semiconductors and computer operating systems.

这一政策虽然远非毛泽东或朝鲜推动的经济自给自足，但仍然将外部世界视为威胁。只不过现在它的重点是投资，以确保中国永远不会依赖西方，从而避免陷入脆弱境地，特别是在半导体和计算机操作系统等关键技术方面。

The new meaning of self-reliance has allowed Dazhai to reinvent itself, changing from a beacon of rural anticapitalist fervor into a hive of capitalist commerce. Former farmers run shops selling Mao trinkets, locally distilled grain liquor and enamel mugs celebrating the “Dazhai spirit.” For visitors with serious cases of nostalgia, some restaurants offer noodles garnished with tree bark, a throwback to China’s days of hunger.

自力更生的新含义使大寨重塑自我，从农村反资本主义的灯塔变成了资本主义商业的蜂巢。以前的农民如今开着商店，出售毛泽东纪念品、本地的烧酒和歌颂“大寨精神”的搪瓷杯。一些餐馆还向充满怀旧情感的游客提供树皮装点的面条，让人回想起中国的饥荒年代。

大寨“人民公社”原来的食堂，如今已成为接待游客的餐厅。大寨村一家纪念品商店里陈列着大寨牌白酒，酒瓶标签印有文化大革命时期的宣传画。

Jia Tianlian, 74, who worked the fields during Chen’s rule, said villagers did not see much of their chief after he moved to Beijing and became enmeshed in the Cultural Revolution, a decade of political turmoil. But he remembers him as a “good man” who saved Dazhai from the worst of the period’s violence, and from ruin during catastrophic flooding in 1963.

在陈永贵掌权期间，现年74岁的贾天连（音）在大寨务农，他说，在陈永贵调往北京并卷入“文化大革命”这场长达十年的政治动荡之后，村民们就很少见到这位村长了。但在他记忆中，陈永贵是个“好人”，在那个动荡时期保护大寨没有遭受最严重的暴力事件，并在1963年灾难性洪水期间令村庄免遭毁灭。

Mr. Jia still grows lettuce and leeks on tiny patches of soil outside his home, but he long ago gave up the more substantial plots he was given after the village’s collective farm disbanded in the early 1980s. He sold them to a local farming enterprise that now controls most of the village land.

贾天连如今仍然在他家外面的小块土地上种植生菜和韭菜，但他很久以前就放弃了村里集体农场在20世纪80年代初解散后分给他的更大块的土地。他把地卖给了当地一家农业企业，该企业现在控制着村里的大部分土地。

大寨一处在半山腰开凿的窑洞，与当地许多传统民居相似。大寨村一处住宅区大门上写着“自力更生”。

His two sons left Dazhai to find work elsewhere — one as a driver, the other at a coal mine — because “no young people want to work in the fields anymore.” The single-room home he shares with his wife has posters featuring Mao and Mr. Xi, but they are dwarfed in size by a tribute to the God of Wealth.

他的两个儿子离开大寨到别处找工作——一个当司机，另一个在煤矿——因为“没有年轻人愿意再下地干活了”。他和妻子共居的单间屋里挂着毛泽东和习近平的海报，但这两幅画像的尺寸远不及另一幅财神像。

Dazhai’s past role as a symbol of opposition to individual enterprise and wealth inequality has been carefully scrubbed from the official “red tourism” narrative, which is aimed at solidifying loyalty to the party by trumpeting a sanitized history of sacrifice in pursuit of unwavering goals.

大寨曾经作为反对个体经营和财富差距的象征，如今这个角色已被小心翼翼地从官方的“红色旅游”叙事中抹去。官方这种叙事旨在宣扬一段为追求坚定不移的目标而牺牲的净化版历史，来巩固对党的忠诚。

Some have failed to keep up with the script.

有些人未能跟上这套说辞。

Li Yanliang, a former farmer, got a job, thanks to Chen, in the leadership compound in Beijing and later returned home to open a small restaurant in Dazhai. It has a curtained-off dining area decorated with old photographs and propaganda posters featuring Jiang Qing, Mao’s fourth and last wife.

在陈永贵的帮助下，曾是农民的李彦良（音）在北京的领导大院谋得一份差事，后来他回到家乡，在大寨开了一家小饭馆。餐厅有一个用窗帘隔开的用餐区，装饰着老照片和宣传海报，其中有毛泽东的第四任也是最后一任妻子江青。

曾经的农民李彦良在大寨的自家餐馆里。江青的照片，她是毛泽东的第四任也是最后一位妻子，如今在中国共产党版本的历史中已成为一个遭人唾弃的人物。

Mr. Li said he was not showing support for Jiang, who was arrested after Mao’s death and has been largely written out of party history, except as a kind of evil witch. He said he just wanted to record the fact that she visited Dazhai twice and always supported the village.

李彦良说他并不是在表示对江青的支持——江青在毛泽东死后被捕，除了被塑造成邪恶的毒妇之外，已经基本上从党史中抹去。他说，他只是想记录下她两次前来大寨并一直支持这个村子的事实。

Reminded that official history reviles her as a murderous, leftist fanatic, he answered: “The past is the past.”

提起官方历史将她诋毁为凶残的左派狂热分子时，他回答说：“过去的就让它过去吧。”

Chen, the former party boss, was also a fanatic — he saw eye to eye with Pol Pot, Cambodia’s genocidal Khmer Rouge leader, who visited Dazhai in 1977 — but is revered by “red tourists” for his devotion to the party.

曾是中共领导人的陈永贵本人也是个狂热分子——他和1977年来访的柬埔寨红色高棉领袖、种族灭绝罪犯波尔布特志同道合——但“红游”游客仍把他奉为对党无限忠诚的楷模。

His framed black-and-white photograph sits atop a table at the entrance to his former home, next to a bust of Mao. Before each is a pile of cigarettes left as offerings by reverential visitors. (Chen died of lung cancer.)

他老家的门口桌上摆着他的黑白照和毛泽东胸像，前面各有一堆游客敬献的香烟。（陈永贵死于肺癌。）

The devotion leaves some visitors cold. Li Wen, a 51-year-old businessman from Xi’an, said he had only come to Dazhai because three elderly relatives wanted to make the trip. “I don’t really care about any of this stuff,” he said, adding: “None of it exists anymore, but people who remember it are nostalgic.”

一些游客对这种狂热没有什么兴趣。51岁的西安商人李闻（音）说他来大寨只是因为家里三位长辈想来，“我对这些东西其实无感。”他还说，“早就没这些事了，但经历过的人怀旧”。

Huang Xiaoming, one of a group of party members visiting from Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi, insisted there was more at work than nostalgia. He pointed to “self-reliance” as the key to China’s extraordinary economic growth since Mao’s death.

来自山西省会太原的一群党员游客中，黄小明（音）坚持认为不止是怀旧。他把毛泽东去世后中国惊人的经济增长归功于“自力更生”。

陈永贵故居内，游客留下的香烟供品。大寨人民公社旧址的游客手持党旗合影。他们身后是习近平呼吁奋斗精神的口号。

He led his fellow travelers in a group photo shoot, with a big Communist Party flag, in a courtyard where large red characters on a wall screamed a quote from Mr. Xi: “Happiness only comes from struggle.”

他带着同伴在一处院子里举着一面巨大的党旗合影，墙上红字写着习近平的名言：“幸福都是奋斗出来的。”

Many older Chinese fear that this message has been lost on younger generations. “They never had to experience hardship,” grumbled Yuan Guoqiang, 65, who was visiting with his wife.

很多老年人担心年轻人已经听不进这句话。65岁的袁国强（音）和老伴一起来参观，嘟囔说：“他们没吃过苦。”

“We still need the Dazhai spirit,” he said.

“现在还是需要大寨精神，”他说。

At the center of the village stands a weeping willow once known as “the tree of suffering,” where, visitors were told, landlords used to whip disobedient laborers, sometimes so fiercely that they died. After the Communist Party seized power and executed landlords, the story went, it became “the happy man tree.”

村子中央有一棵曾经叫“苦人树”的垂柳，据说解放前地主会在这里鞭打不听话的长工，有时打得太狠会把人打死。共产党夺权后枪毙地主，这棵树就改名“乐人树”了。

To keep it from falling over, the aged tree is now propped up by a concrete post, shaped to look like a tree trunk. But this local landmark, a reminder of the brutality that Chinese people inflicted on each other before and after the 1949 revolution, is no longer an official stop on guided tours of Dazhai.

老树快要倒了，现在用一根伪装成树干的水泥柱子撑着。但这个曾提醒人们1949年前后中国人互相施加暴行的当地地标已不再是大寨导游路线上的一个官方景点。

大寨铁栅栏上锈迹斑斑的宣传画。