The married couples filed into a federal building in San Diego last week for green card interviews that they believed would secure their future together in the United States. Half of each pair was American. Stephen Paul came with his British wife and their 4-month-old baby. Audrey Hestmark arrived with her German husband, days before their first wedding anniversary. Jason Cordero accompanied his Mexican wife.

上周，数对已婚夫妇陆续走进圣迭戈的一栋联邦政府大楼参加绿卡面谈，他们原本以为这将确保自己与伴侣在美国共同生活的未来。这些夫妇中的一方是美国公民。斯蒂芬·保罗带着英国妻子和四个月大的婴儿前来。奥黛丽·赫斯特马克在结婚一周年纪念日前夕与德国丈夫共同到场。与杰森·科尔德罗同来的是他的墨西哥妻子。

It was supposed to be a celebratory milestone, the final step in the process to obtain U.S. permanent residency. Instead, as each interview with an immigration officer wrapped up, federal agents swooped in, handcuffed the foreign spouse and took him or her away.

这本该是个值得庆祝的大事——获得美国永久居留权的最后一步。然而，在每位申请人与移民官的谈话结束后，联邦探员便突然现身，将外籍配偶铐上手铐带走。

“I had to take our baby from my crying wife’s arms,” Mr. Paul, 33, said, recalling the moment that agents said they were arresting his wife, Katie.

“我不得不从哭泣的妻子怀中接过我们的孩子，”33岁的保罗回忆探员宣布逮捕他的妻子凯蒂时说道。

Ms. Paul was sent to an immigration detention center with hundreds of other people swept up in the Trump administration’s crackdown. Her husband had to take a leave from his job at the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department to care for their child and try to secure her release.

保罗的妻子被押送至一处移民拘留中心，那里还有数以百计同样在特朗普政府严厉打击行动中被捕的移民。保罗在圣迭戈县警署工作，他不得不请假照顾孩子，并设法争取让妻子获释。

“It’s insane to have them rip our family apart,” Mr. Paul said. “Whoever is directing this has completely lost touch with their mission to the country.”

“他们这样拆散我们的家庭，简直疯了，”保罗说。“指挥这一切的人已经完全背离了服务国家的使命。”

In recent weeks, immigration lawyers in several cities have seen a surge in arrests of foreign spouses of Americans during interviews at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.

近几周来，多个城市的移民律师发现，在美国公民及移民服务局面谈过程中被捕的美国公民外籍配偶数量大幅上升。

In San Diego alone, immigration lawyers in the region estimate that several dozen foreign-born spouses have been detained since Nov. 12, when the new tactic first surfaced, according to Andrew Nietor, an immigration lawyer. A former chair of the San Diego chapter of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, Mr. Nietor said the estimate was based on members’ communications about their clients. The exact number of spouses detained is unclear because many couples attend the routine interviews without lawyers, who would alert colleagues. The government has not disclosed a tally of such detentions.

据移民律师安德鲁·尼托尔称，圣迭戈的移民律师估计自11月12日这种新手段首次出现以来，仅该地区就已经有数十名外籍配偶被拘留。曾任美国移民律师协会圣迭戈分会主席的尼托尔指出，这一估算是基于协会成员间关于客户情况的交流得出的。被拘留配偶的确切人数尚不明确，因为许多夫妇在参加例行面谈时不会请律师——而律师通常会向同行通报此类情况。政府尚未披露相关拘留数据。

In every case, agents with Immigration and Customs Enforcement told the applicants that they had overstayed tourist or business visas. An arrest warrant, reviewed by The New York Times, states that “there is probable cause to believe” that the named spouse is “removable from the United States.”

在所有案例中，美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)的探员均告知申请人其旅游或商务签证已逾期。《纽约时报》查阅的一份逮捕令称，“有合理理由认定”被列名的配偶“应被驱逐出美国”。

“Apprehensions at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices may occur if individuals are identified as having outstanding warrants; being subject to court-issued removal orders; or having committed fraud, crimes or other violations of immigration law while in the United States,” said Matthew J. Tragesser, an agency spokesman, noting that the arrests were typically carried out by ICE.

ICE发言人马修·特拉格瑟表示：“若发现当事人身负未执行的逮捕令、法院签发的驱逐令，或在美期间存在移民欺诈、犯罪及其他违反移民法行为，那么有可能在美国公民及移民服务局办公室实施拘捕。”他强调逮捕行动通常由ICE执行。

“从业25年来，我还从未见过这样的事情，”保罗夫妇的律师乔安娜·基米说。周一，在圣迭戈的5号州际公路沿线，人们举行示威游行，抗议近期的ICE突击行动。

But the couples and their lawyers said they had followed the required steps: They had submitted extensive paperwork and paid fees. The foreign spouses had been fingerprinted and passed medical exams. None had criminal records. None had entered the country illegally. They had already been granted employment authorization.

但这些夫妻及其律师表示，他们已经遵循了所有的必要步骤：他们提交了大量文件并缴纳了相关费用。外籍配偶已经进行指纹录入并通过了体检。无人有犯罪记录。无人系非法入境。他们甚至已经拿到了工作许可。

“In 25 years of practice, I have never seen anything like this,” Johanna Keamy, the Pauls’ lawyer, said, echoing the view of other lawyers.

“从业25年来，我还从未见过这样的事情，”保罗夫妇的律师乔安娜·基米与其他律师都表达了同样的观点。

“The proper procedure was exactly what they did,” she said. “What’s next? Revoking green cards from millions who followed these same steps?”

“他们完全遵循了正规流程，”她说。“接下来要怎样？是要撤销数百万遵循同样步骤获得绿卡者的身份吗？”

Green-card applicants’ temporary visas often lapse while their “adjustment-of-status” proceeds over several months or longer.

在为期数月或更长的“身份调整”程序进行期间，绿卡申请人的临时签证往往已经过期。

An immigration statute passed by Congress in 1986 allows a spouse who entered the country lawfully to be eligible for a green card through marriage even if the person’s visa has expired.

国会在1986年通过的一项移民法案允许合法入境的配偶即使签证已过期，也有资格通过婚姻关系获得绿卡。

“Congress was unambiguous — these people are eligible for green cards,” said Doug Rand, who was a senior official at Citizenship and Immigration Services during the Biden administration.

“国会的立场非常明确——这类人完全有资格获得绿卡，”曾在拜登政府担任公民及移民服务局高级官员的道格·兰德表示。

While federal law does not prohibit spouses with expired visas from being detained and placed in deportation proceedings, in the past they have rarely been detained while applying for green cards.

虽然联邦法律并未禁止对签证过期的配偶实施拘留并启动递解程序，但过去这类申请人在办理绿卡期间遭到拘留的情况非常少见。

The Trump administration is carrying out such detentions without having announced any change in policy.

特朗普政府在未宣布任何政策变更的情况下正在执行此类拘留。

The recent spate of arrests comes amid a leadership shake-up at ICE, including the San Diego region, designed to accelerate and advance the president’s agenda.

近期大规模拘捕事件发生之际，ICE正在进行领导层大调整以加速推进总统的移民议程，其中包括包括圣迭戈地区的ICE。

Ordinarily, foreign spouses of Americans are approved for U.S. permanent residency during or shortly after the in-person interview.

通常情况下，美国公民的外籍配偶会在面谈过程中或不久之后获批美国永久居留权。

Audrey Hestmark, 38, and her husband, Thomas Bilger, 40, reported to the government office in San Diego on Nov. 20, hopeful he would have his green card for their first wedding anniversary two days later.

38岁的奥德丽·赫斯特马克和40岁的丈夫托马斯·比尔格于11月20日前往圣迭戈的政府办公室，满心期待两天后的结婚周年纪念日时他能拿到绿卡。

Mr. Bilger, a robotics engineer, had met and fallen in love with Ms. Hestmark during his business trips from Germany. After dating for four years, they were married on Nov. 22, 2024.

比尔格是一名机器人工程师，他在从德国到美国出差期间遇见并爱上了赫斯特马克。经过四年的交往，两人于2024年11月22日结为连理。

“Tom was super excited to become a U.S. resident, so much so that he had insisted on a cowboy-themed wedding,” said Ms. Hestmark, a registered nurse.

“汤姆对成为美国居民兴奋不已，甚至坚持要办一个牛仔主题的婚礼，”注册护士赫斯特马克回忆道。

They immediately hired a lawyer and assembled documents from Germany and the United States to support their petition.

他们立刻聘请律师，并从德国与美国搜集各种证明文件来支持他们的申请。

奥德丽·赫斯特马克说，“我们按照所有该做的步骤去做了，而现在汤姆却在遭罪。我们所有人都在遭罪。”奥德丽·赫斯特马克和她的丈夫汤姆·比尔格在他们2024年的婚礼上。

At the interview, they brought requisite evidence that their marriage was legitimate — photos of a vacation to Hawaii with his parents; leases, bank statements and utility bills in both names; and other records.

面谈时，他们带来了证明婚姻真实性的必要材料——与他父母一起去夏威夷度假的照片、两人共同名下的租约、银行账单与水电账单，以及其他记录。

The officer asked routine questions. But the last one, according to Ms. Hestmark, was whether her husband had ever overstayed his visa. He responded truthfully and cited their lawyer’s assurance that this was a nonissue.

移民官循例提问，但赫斯特马克表示最后一个问题直指她丈夫是否曾逾期居留。比尔格如实回答，并引用律师的保证称这并不构成障碍。

“Suddenly, we were ambushed by three masked men in bulletproof vests with guns who told Tom they had a warrant for his arrest, that he is here unlawfully,” Ms. Hestmark recalled.

“突然，三名蒙面、穿防弹背心、持枪的男子将我们围住，他们告诉汤姆有逮捕令，说他在这里是非法居留，”赫斯特马克回忆说。

The agents handcuffed her husband, gave her a card with a QR code for the ICE website and took him away. She did not hear from him again until the next morning. He has been bounced between a basement in downtown San Diego and an immigration detention center, where he remains.

探员给她的丈夫戴上手铐，递给她一张带有ICE官网二维码的联系卡，然后把他带走。直到第二天早上她才再次听到丈夫的消息。他先后被押送至圣迭戈市中心的一个地下室和一个移民拘留中心，至今仍关在拘留中心。

Some U.S. citizens have hired lawyers to seek the release of spouses, through actions such as posting bond. Once released, the foreign spouses must try to pursue green cards through immigration court, where judges are grappling with yearslong backlogs.

部分美国公民已聘请律师通过缴纳保释金等方式争取配偶获释。一旦获释，这些外籍配偶须转而通过移民法庭申请绿卡，而当前移民法官正疲于应付积压多年的案子。

Mr. Nietor, the immigration lawyer, said that the government’s strategy appeared to be to induce the couples “to give up and abandon their cases and accept the foreign spouse’s deportation.”

移民律师尼托尔表示，政府的策略似乎是想让这些夫妇“放弃、撤回他们的案件，并接受外籍配偶被驱逐出境”的事实。

Jason Cordero, 26, whose wife, Ludmila, a Mexican national, was detained last week during their interview, said she had been suffering from severe anxiety and having panic attacks in the detention facility.

26岁的杰森·科尔德罗说，其墨西哥籍妻子卢德米拉上周在面谈时遭到拘留，目前在拘留所饱受严重焦虑症与惊恐发作的折磨。

Mr. Cordero hails from a family of modest means, he said, and he had been working two jobs to get them on a stable footing since they married early this year. The couple had recently upgraded from a studio to a one-bedroom apartment in Oceanside, Calif., he said.

科尔德罗表示自己出身清寒，自从今年初结婚后一直打两份工维持家计。这对夫妇刚在加州欧申赛德从单间公寓搬进了一居室。

“Little by little we were moving up,” said Mr. Cordero, who works for a beverage distribution company and a fast-food chain. When three ICE agents took Ms. Cordero into custody for overstaying her visa, she began to weep, as did the Citizenship and Immigration Services officer who had been interviewing her, according to Mr. Cordero.

“我们正一步步改善生活，”在饮料分销公司和快餐连锁店工作的科尔德罗说。据他描述，当三名ICE探员以逾期居留为由拘留卢德米拉时，她当场泣不成声，连负责面谈的移民局官员也随之落泪。

The ICE agents instructed his wife to remove her bracelets, earrings and wedding band, which she placed in her small brown purse and handed to her husband.

ICE探员要求他的妻子取下手镯、耳环和婚戒，她将这些物品放进一个棕色的小手袋里交予丈夫。

“I was shocked and heartbroken,” Mr. Cordero said. “We tried to be respectful because of everything about immigration we’d been seeing on the news.”

“我既震惊又心碎，”科尔德罗说，“那些关于移民的新闻我们已经看到了，所以我们一直尽量保持尊重。”

Katie and Stephen Paul met on a gaming platform more than two years ago. Their friendship flourished into a romance, and she visited Mr. Paul several times under the visa-waiver program for British nationals, which permits stays of up to three months at a time. She joined Mr. Paul’s family on a trip to Japan, and the couple married last October. Two days later, they discovered she was pregnant with Alan, now 4 months old.

凯蒂和斯蒂芬·保罗是在两年多前通过一个游戏平台认识的。他们的友谊发展成恋情，她多次通过英国公民免签计划来探望保罗，该计划允许一次入境最长停留三个月。她还与保罗的家人一起去日本旅行，这对夫妻于去年10月结婚。两天后，他们发现她已经怀上了现在四个月大的儿子艾伦。

They filed their green-card petition in July.

今年7月，他们正式提交了绿卡申请。

Their interview last week was going smoothly, he said, until three ICE agents walked in and informed them that Ms. Paul, who was holding her infant, was under arrest.

他说，他们上周的面谈原本进行得很顺利，直到三名ICE探员走进来，告知正抱着婴儿的凯蒂，她被逮捕了。

Their lawyer, Ms. Keamy, who was participating by telephone, objected, saying this had never happened before.

通过电话参与面谈的律师基米当即提出异议，指出以前从未发生过这样的事情。

“I was completely dumbfounded,” she said. “I went numb.”

“我完全惊呆了，”她说。“整个人都僵住了。”

Mr. Paul said the agents had told him that they disagreed with the directive to arrest Ms. Paul but that they had to follow orders.

保罗说，探员对他讲，他们并不认同逮捕保罗夫人的指令，但他们必须服从命令。

“They are having them grab everyone they can,” Mr. Paul said. “This is just not right.”

“他们现在是能抓一个算一个，”保罗说。“这是不对的。”

妻子遭ICE拘留期间，在圣迭戈县警署工作的斯蒂芬·保罗不得不请假，以便照顾他们的孩子。斯蒂芬和凯蒂·保罗在他们2024年于加州拉荷亚举行的婚礼上。

After Mr. Paul learned from his wife that the authorities were threatening to deport her without a hearing, he said, their lawyer filed a lawsuit in federal court in San Diego to halt her removal and secure her release.

保罗说，在他从妻子那里得知当局威胁要在没有听证的情况下驱逐她后，他们的律师马上在圣迭戈的联邦法院提起诉讼，以阻止她被遣返，并争取让她获释。

In response, the government approved Ms. Paul’s green card on Tuesday and freed her.

作为回应，政府于周二批准了保罗太太的绿卡申请，并将其释放。

In Hong Kong, a city where millions of residents sleep, eat and work high above the ground in towers pressed together like books on a shelf, there has long been the threat that a massive fire could trap people inside their high-rises.

在香港，楼群密密匝匝如同书架上的书本，这座城市的数百万居民就在高楼里睡觉、吃饭、工作，一场滔天大火让住在高楼里的人无处可逃的威胁一直存在。

By Thursday, the scale of that nightmare emerged, as an inferno that had begun a day earlier with one 32-story building and quickly engulfed six other towers at an aging apartment complex became the deadliest fire in Hong Kong’s modern history. On Friday morning, the authorities said that at least 83 people had died in the blaze and dozens of others were still unaccounted for.

至周四，这场噩梦的惨烈程度逐渐显现。此前一天，始于一栋32层建筑的烈火迅速吞噬老旧屋苑的另外六栋高楼，酿成香港现代史上最致命的火灾惨剧。周五早晨，官方确认至少94人罹难，另有数十人下落不明。

Hundreds of firefighters worked to put out flames that continued to burn in three buildings of the Wang Fuk Court complex in Tai Po district 24 hours after they were first reported on Wednesday afternoon. They searched for survivors who had been trapped inside the buildings, pulling both people and corpses out.

周三下午爆发的大埔宏福苑火灾持续逾24小时后，仍有三栋建筑存在火情，数百名消防员仍在努力扑救。他们在楼内搜救受困者，不断抬出幸存者与遇难者遗体。

More than 70 others were in the hospital, some in critical condition. Outside a nearby community center, dozens of people whose relatives were missing waited in line within a police cordon to see if their loved ones were among those whose bodies had been found.

还有70多人正在医院救治，其中一些人情况危急。在附近一个社区中心外，数十名失踪者家属在警戒线内排队，焦急等待确认已寻获的遗体中有无至亲。

Investigators began piecing together how the flames had moved so swiftly, homing in on the green construction netting that had shrouded the buildings slated for renovation, as well as polystyrene foam that had apparently been installed on windows. The police arrested two directors and a consultant linked to a construction company that had installed the construction materials, saying they were suspected of manslaughter and gross negligence.

调查人员开始努力还原火势急速蔓延的轨迹，重点关注包覆待翻新建筑的绿色施工防护网，以及发现安装在窗框上的发泡胶。警方已逮捕涉事建筑工程公司的两名董事及一名顾问，称他们涉嫌误杀和严重疏忽。

宏福苑附近临时安置点的居民。

Residents, many of them older, described narrowly escaping and complained that they had been given no warning, not even by a fire alarm. Public anger rose over whether Hong Kong’s building-safety system has kept pace with the vulnerabilities of one of the world’s fastest-aging populations.

该屋苑的住户（其中许多是老年人）描述了死里逃生的经历，并抱怨事发时完全没有收到任何警示，连警报器都没有响。公众的愤怒情绪不断上升，他们想知道作为全球老龄化速度最快的城市之一，香港的建筑安全体系是否跟得上。

Some observers and local politicians began to ask whether the disaster was the result of corruption and a lack of accountability, as residents raised questions about perceived collusion between housing committees that oversee maintenance and renovations of such estates and contractors.

一些观察人士和当地政界人士开始质疑，这场灾难是否是腐败和缺乏问责的结果。居民们对负责监督此类楼宇维护和修缮的房屋管理委员会与承包商之间相互勾结的现象提出了质疑。

The latest death toll surpassed that of a tenement fire in Kowloon that killed 59 people in 1957, as well as the blaze that broke out at Grenfell Tower, an apartment block in central London in 2017, in which 72 people were killed.

最新的死亡数字已超过1957年九龙一场造成59人死亡的出租楼大火，也超过了2017年英国伦敦格伦费尔公寓造成72人死亡的火灾。

“This is absolutely scandalous, this is not what Hong Kong is known for,” said Emily Lau, a longtime pro-democracy politician and former lawmaker who now hosts an interview show on YouTube. She said the scale of the tragedy pointed to insufficient government supervision: “This has opened up a can of worms about misconduct.”

“这绝对是骇人听闻的，这不是香港该有的样子，”长期从事民主运动的政治人物、前立法会议员刘慧卿说，她目前在YouTube上主持一档访谈节目。她说，这场悲剧的规模突显了政府的监管不足：“挤破了行为不当的脓疮。”

In the face of mounting questions and pressure from China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for “all-out efforts” to respond to the disaster, the Hong Kong government moved to show it was taking swift action.

面对不断增长的质疑以及来自中国领导人习近平要求“全力以赴”应对灾难的压力，香港政府随即采取行动，试图展示其正在迅速应对。

大埔火灾次日，数百消防员仍在现场全力扑救。摄于周四。

John Lee, the Beijing-backed chief executive of Hong Kong, visited the site and later told reporters that the fires were under control. He announced a 300 million Hong Kong dollar or $38 million, fund for victims. His government also kicked off a citywide inspection of housing estates currently under renovation. The city’s anticorruption bureau also announced it was setting up a task force to investigate potential corruption related to the construction work on the complex.

北京支持的香港特首李家超视察了火灾现场，随后向记者表示火势已得到控制。他宣布设立一笔3亿港元的灾民援助基金，特区政府同时启动对全港正在进行翻新的屋邨的排查。香港廉政公署也宣布成立专项工作组，调查该楼群翻新工程中可能存在的贪腐问题。

The fire was the latest crisis for Mr. Lee’s government, which already faces demands from Beijing to fix Hong Kong’s housing market, one of the least affordable in the world, and shore up the economy.

这场火灾是李家超政府面临的又一场危机。此前，北京已要求其解决香港住房市场问题——香港楼市是全球房价可负担性最低的市场之一——同时还需着力提振经济。

And as public distrust swells, with people posting videos and photos online expressing concern about what they feared was flammable construction materials on other buildings, the political fallout could be significant.

随着公众疑虑日益加剧，民众纷纷在网上发布视频和照片，担忧其他建筑上使用的建筑材料存在易燃风险，此次火灾可能引发重大政治影响。

“A bigger question is this: Should a senior official take overall responsibility for this horrendous fire?” said Wang Xiangwei, an associate professor of journalism at Hong Kong Baptist University.

“更大的问题在于：面对这场惨烈的火灾，是否应有高级官员承担全面责任？”香港浸会大学新闻系副教授王向伟表示。

The authorities said that a preliminary investigation revealed that protective nets, tarpaulin and other materials used for the renovation may not have met fire-safety standards. They identified the registered contractor for the building complex as Prestige Construction and Engineering Company.

当局初步调查显示，翻新工程中使用的防护网、防水帆布及其他材料可能不符合消防安全标准，并确认翻新工程的注册承建商为宏业建筑工程有限公司。

志愿者正在整理捐给灾后无家可归者的物资。

The mesh netting was probably a factor in how quickly the fire spread, said Tony Za, a former chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Engineers Building Division. Typically made of fibers and plastic, such netting is used to keep construction materials and other objects from falling off bamboo scaffolding — which companies in Hong Kong commonly use when repairing a building’s exterior — and hitting the ground below.

香港工程师学会建筑分部前主席谢伟正指出，防护网或许是火势快速蔓延的原因之一。这类防护网通常由纤维和塑料制成，用于防止建筑材料及其他物品从竹棚架上坠落伤人——香港企业翻新建筑外墙时普遍使用这种棚架。

Bamboo scaffolding may have also contributed to the blaze, experts said. The government announced earlier this year that it would phase out the use of the material and replace it with steel scaffolding, for greater safety. Last month, another bamboo scaffolding caught fire in Hong Kong’s central business district. That incident along with the devastating fire this week would likely accelerate the construction industry’s switch to metal scaffolding, Mr. Za said.

专家表示，竹棚架也可能助长了火势。香港政府今年早些时候已宣布，将逐步淘汰竹棚架，改用安全性更高的钢棚架。上月，香港中环商务区曾发生另一起竹棚架起火事件。谢伟正称，此次重大火灾叠加此前的事故，大概率会加速建筑行业向金属棚架的转型。

The government’s investigation also pointed to foam boards that had been found installed on windows.

政府调查还指出，发现窗户上安装了泡沫板。

One Wang Fuk Court resident, Lau Yu Hung, a 78-year-old resident, said that many of the windows in his building were covered with a thin layer of polystyrene foam, and that he had heard that it was meant to protect the glass from the repairs being done to the facade.

宏福苑78岁的居民刘余洪（音）表示，他所住楼栋的许多窗户都被一层薄薄的泡沫板覆盖，他听闻此举是为了在立面翻新期间保护玻璃。

The material blocked much of the light and prevented residents from seeing outside, he said. It was only because of a small gap in the foam covering his bathroom window that he had been able to see that a neighboring building was on fire and escape in time, he said.

他说，这种材料遮挡了大部分光线，导致居民无法看清窗外情况。万幸的是，他家浴室窗户的泡沫板留有一道小缝隙，正是通过这道缝隙，他才发现邻近楼栋起火，并及时逃生。

初步调查显示，宏福苑翻修使用的防护网、防水布及其他材料可能未达到消防安全标准。

The blaze spread quickly in this complex of about 2,000 units, which housed many retirees. Some residents had lived there for decades after having purchased their apartments through a government-subsidized homeownership program in the 1980s. Mr. Lau said he had lived there for 20 years.

这座屋邨共有约2000个单位，居住着大量退休人士。部分居民在上世纪80年代通过政府资助的居者有其屋计划购入公寓，在此居住已数十年。刘余洪本人也已在此居住了20年。

Near the complex, dozens of family members still searching for their loved ones gathered outside to file slowly into a community center where they viewed photos of victims.

屋邨附近，数十名仍在寻找亲人的家属聚集在一处社区中心外，依次进入场内辨认遇难者照片。

S.F. Chiang, 68, had gone there to see if her missing 62-year-old brother and 24-year-old niece were among the victims. But she did not find them among the photos that the police provided. “My heart hurts to think about them,” she said.

S·F·蒋（音）来到这里，希望能在遇难者名单中找到她失踪的62岁弟弟和24岁侄女，但她并未在警方提供的照片中看到二人的身影。“一想到他们，我就好心痛，”她说。

(This story was originally published in May.)

（本文最初于5月发表。）

As a truckload of bamboo poles pulled into a narrow street, Daisy Pak stubbed out a cigarette, pulled a safety harness over her paint-streaked leggings and began blasting Prince from a Bluetooth speaker.

当一卡车竹竿驶入狭窄街道，黛西·白（音）掐灭香烟，将安全带绕过沾着油漆痕迹的紧身裤，开始用蓝牙音箱大声放“王子”的歌。

After maneuvering a loaded cart into an elevator, she opened a tiny window on the ninth floor and ducked out onto a narrow pipe, a bunch of zip ties sashaying behind her back like a bushy tail. She called for mid-length bamboo poles that she tied into a latticework clinging to the outside of the building.

她将满载竹竿的推车推进电梯，抵达九楼后推开一扇小窗，弯腰踏上狭窄的管道——背后一束扎带像蓬松的尾巴一样晃来晃去。她喊着要来中等长度的竹竿，将它们捆扎成格栅状结构，牢牢固定在建筑外墙。

Ms. Pak, 31, is one of the few female bamboo scaffolding workers in Hong Kong, using an ancient Chinese practice that is synonymous with the city even as its use has faded elsewhere in China. She turned to the industry for a fresh start in 2021, after a hardscrabble upbringing and falling into drug addiction and debt. There was a demand for skilled construction workers, it paid relatively well, and she had a passion for the time-honored craft. “It’s so special, to build something completely all out of bamboo,” she said.

31岁的黛西·白是香港为数不多的女性搭棚工。这种古老的中国工艺如今在中国其他地区已日渐式微，却仍是香港的标志性符号。2021年，在经历了艰辛的成长历程、染上毒瘾又深陷债务后，她投身这一行寻求新生。当时熟练建筑工人紧缺，薪资相对优厚，而她本身也对这项历史悠久的手艺非常热忱。“纯粹用竹子搭建出一样东西，这种感觉太特别了，”她说。

Traditionally, workers learn their craft by shadowing one master with knowledge passed down through generations. But Ms Pak learned any way she could, working with different bosses to broaden her skills and techniques, and overcoming taunts about her ability as a novice and her 5-foot-1 stature. While dismantling a scaffold, a colleague once tossed her poles to catch instead of passing them downward. Contractors have tried to pay her less than she was promised. Her arms and legs were constantly bruised, but she carried on.

传统上，竹棚工人需要拜师学艺，掌握代代相传的技术。但是黛西·白想尽一切办法学习：为拓宽技能与技法，她先后跟随多位老板干活；别人嘲笑她是新手，还有她只有约1米55的身高，她咬牙坚持。拆棚时，曾经有同事直接把竹竿扔给她而不是递下来；有些承包商还试图克扣承诺的薪资。她的胳膊和腿上常年带着淤青，却从未放弃。

黛西·白是香港棚架行业中为数不多的女性从业者之一。黛西·白用扎带将竹竿捆扎在杉木立柱上。

“I was born with the will to prove people wrong, to do things that they say cannot be done,” she said.

“我生来就要证明别人是错的，别人说我做不到，我偏要做到，”她说。

But the industry that helped transform her life now faces its own uncertain future. Some, like Ms. Pak, are worried after Hong Kong’s development bureau issued a memo in March requiring at least half of government projects to use metal scaffolding in an effort to gradually widen its use to keep pace with modern industry practices and improve safety.

然而，这个改变了她人生的行业如今正面临不确定的未来。今年3月，香港发展局发布备忘录，要求至少一半的政府项目使用金属棚架，旨在逐步推广现代工艺适用范围、提升安全性。这让包括黛西·白在内的从业者忧心忡忡。

The city is one of the last bastions of an art — and later industry — that was first depicted in scroll paintings from the Han dynasty around 2,000 years ago, and it has thrived in bamboo-rich regions in China. But in the past two decades, the rest of China pivoted toward metal amid an overproduction of steel.

香港是这项古老技艺——后来发展为产业——最后的阵地之一。早在约2000年前的汉代，画轴中就已出现竹棚的身影，它在中国竹子资源丰富的地区曾盛极一时。但过去20年间，随着钢铁产能过剩，中国其他地区纷纷转向金属棚架。

Lattices of bamboo poles bound together by intricate knots regularly rise across the city to build and renovate apartment blocks and commercial skyscrapers that can be dozens of stories high.

在香港，错综复杂、由绳结捆绑而成的竹棚随处可见，用于建造和翻新数十层高的公寓楼与商业大厦。

Advocates of the material, including Ms. Pak, say it is lighter and cheaper than metal to transport and carry in Hong Kong’s tight urban spaces. Builders particularly favor the material when erecting platforms that support workers who patch up building exteriors and replace old pipes and window sills.

包括黛西·白在内的竹材支持者表示，在香港拥挤的城市空间里，竹材的运输和搬运比金属更轻便、成本更低。尤其在搭建用于修补外墙、更换旧管道和窗台的作业平台时，建筑方更青睐竹棚。

The government development bureau wrote in a statement that metal scaffolds offered better fire resistance and were more rigid and durable. But it added that it had no intention to phase out bamboo scaffolds entirely, “particularly in special circumstances including limited working space on site.”

香港发展局在声明中称，金属棚架防火性能更佳，且更坚固耐用。但该局还说，并无完全淘汰竹棚架的打算，“尤其是在工地环境狭窄等特殊情况下。”

竹棚架是这座高密度都市的景观的一部分。

Tony Za, the former chairman of the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers’ building division, said that a spate of industrial accidents involving bamboo structures had prompted safety concerns. Metal scaffolds are more suitable for large-scale construction projects as skyscrapers grow taller and building materials change to include more glass, Mr. Za said.

前香港工程师学会建筑分部主席谢伟正表示，一系列涉及竹结构的工业事故引发了安全担忧。随着摩天大楼越来越高，建筑材料也更多地采用玻璃，金属棚架更适合大型建设项目。

For metal scaffolding, engineers can make decisions such as how thick a pole to use and how far apart to space the ringlocks based on calculations accounting for load and extreme weather, Mr. Za said. But that cannot be done for bamboo scaffolds, because the poles do not come in uniform shapes, requiring the discretion of bamboo masters.

谢伟正解释说，对于金属棚架，工程师可根据荷载和极端天气等因素计算确定管材厚度、环锁间距等参数；但竹棚架无法做到这一点，因为竹竿形状不规则，全凭竹棚师傅的经验判断。

Ms. Pak had the foresight to get licensed to work with metal scaffolds last year, saying she already used some metal components, such as platforms. “They reinforce one another, like brothers scaling a mountain together,” she said.

颇具远见的黛西·白去年已考取金属棚架操作资质。她说自己早已在使用平台等金属构件：“它们相辅相成，就像兄弟携手登山。”

But her love for bamboo, bordering on sentimentality, has only grown. “The material is so dynamic and resilient,” she said. “It’s just like the spirit of Hong Kong.”

但她对竹子近乎感伤的热爱却愈发深厚，“这种材料充满活力且韧性十足，就像香港精神。”

Passers-by often do a double take when they watch her haul a bundle of seven-foot bamboo poles with ease.

路人常常会驻足侧目，惊讶于她能轻松扛起一捆长约二米的竹竿。

Raised by a single mother, Ms. Pak worked in a seedy nightclub for a while but moved into construction during the pandemic. The daily rate for novices was about $90 and could go up to $250 for a skilled worker.

黛西·白由单亲母亲抚养长大，一度在一家低档夜总会工作，疫情期间转行进入建筑行业。在这个行业，新手日薪约90美元（约合640元人民币），熟练工人最高可达250美元（约合1700元人民币）。

With no connections in the industry, she trawled scaffolding groups on Facebook, asking if anyone would hire a female worker. Many contractors responded out of curiosity, she said. For the first year, she stayed on the ground, passing tools and bamboo poles several times her height to more seasoned workers dangling from rooftops and balconies.

由于在业内毫无人脉，她在Facebook的棚架工人群组里四处打听，询问是否有人愿意雇佣女性工人。她说，许多承包商出于好奇回应了她。第一年，她一直在地面工作，将工具和比自己高出许多的竹竿递给悬挂在屋顶和阳台的资深工人。

She said she earned greater acceptance as she became more experienced. She amassed several qualifications in the industry, including what is nicknamed the “master license.”

她说，随着经验日渐丰富，她获得了更多认可，还考取了行业内多项资质，包括被戏称为“大师执照”的高级认证。

“I am now respected,” she said.

“现在我得到了尊重，”她说。

肯尼·李是一位资深棚架工匠，数十年来一直为宗教庆典和粤剧演出搭建戏台。

On a recent day off, she traveled to the outlying Po Toi Island to visit Kenny Lee, a veteran builder of open-air bamboo theaters outside temples used for religious celebrations and Cantonese opera performances. The technique for making such structures has been designated by the government as an intangible part of the cultural heritage.

前不久的一个休息日，她前往远离市中心的蒲台岛拜访肯尼·李（音），一位资深的露天竹戏棚搭建师傅。这种戏台用于宗教庆典和粤剧演出，搭建技艺已被政府列为非物质文化遗产。

In recent weeks, Mr. Lee and his crew of about 10 builders constructed a theater at a cliff-side temple ahead of performances marking the birthday of Tin Hau, the goddess of seafarers. With minimal direction, the builders worked in synchrony: hauling heavy wooden logs and bamboo poles, and clambering up and down the theater’s soaring rooftop. It was built upon uneven rocks; in high tide, the fir pillars slanted into the waters.

近几周来，为筹备庆祝海神“天后”诞辰的演出，肯尼·李和他的10人团队在一座悬崖边的寺庙旁搭建了一座戏台。工人们无需过多指令便配合默契：搬运沉重的原木和竹竿，在戏台高耸的屋顶上攀爬作业。戏台建在崎岖的岩石上，涨潮时，杉木支柱会斜插入水中。

“There’s joy and there’s sorrow in this work,” Mr. Lee, 57, said, recounting days when he worked through typhoons to meet deadlines, even as hurricane-force winds hurled flower pots from neighboring buildings.

“这份工作有苦也有乐，”57岁的肯尼·李说。他回忆曾有台风天为赶工期坚持作业，飓风般的狂风甚至将邻近建筑的花盆掀落。

In his heyday, Mr. Lee would build and dismantle as many as 30 bamboo theaters across the city every year. But the pandemic hit the business, and there is more profit to be made with the construction jobs that he needs to make ends meet, he said.

在鼎盛时期，肯尼·李每年要在全港搭建和拆除多达30座戏棚。但疫情重创了这个行业，如今靠建筑工程谋生才能维持生计。

游客在蒲台岛悬崖边寺庙周围的临时竹棚剧场观看粤剧演出。游客们在蒲台岛的庙宇里参加祈福仪式。

“You can’t really make money,” he said. “I do it for the gods, then for the brothers.”

“其实赚不到什么钱，我做这个，先是为神明，再是为兄弟，”他说。

Ms. Pak has ideas on how to make the industry more accessible to newcomers and the public. She has taught high school students how to build a small scaffold and is preparing to launch a YouTube channel with tutorials on basic skills, such as tying knots with zip ties.

黛西·白在考虑如何让更多新人加入这个行业，让公众了解这项工艺。她曾指导高中生搭建小型竹棚，目前正筹备开通YouTube频道，传授用扎带打结等基础技艺。

Ms. Pak bought sour plum juice on the way to the temple to give to the crew and traded stories with them. She worked up the gumption to ask Mr. Lee to hire her for his next bamboo theater project.

前往寺庙的路上，黛西·白买了酸梅汤分给工人们，还和他们交流心得。她鼓起勇气，向肯尼·李提出，希望能参与他的下一个戏棚项目。

这座临时竹制剧场建在悬崖边的寺庙周围，不过肯尼·李表示，由于土地填海工程，如今这类场地越来越少了。

“It would be a shame if the tradition dies in our hands,” she said.

“如果这项传统在我们手中消亡，那就太可惜了，”她说。

Three weeks ago, it looked like Japan’s prime minister had made the biggest blunder of her early tenure with an off-the-cuff comment that ignited a diplomatic showdown with China.

三周前，日本首相的一句即席发言看上去好像是她执政初期最大的失误，导致与中国的外交对峙。

Now Sanae Takaichi is in a position of strength at home, even though neither Japan nor China is backing away from the dispute.

而现在，高市早苗在国内地位稳固，尽管日本和中国都没有在争端中退缩。

Ms. Takaichi caused the row by signaling her country’s willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of Chinese military action. China, which regards the island democracy as its territory, responded by curtailing trade and tourism to Japan.

高市早苗因表态愿在中方采取军事行动时保卫台湾而引发争端。视该民主岛屿为其领土的中国随即做出回应，采取措施削减对日贸易和旅游。

But the economic costs have not dented her popularity among Japan’s voters. If anything, they have increased her appeal as a conservative strong on defense.

但经济代价并没有影响她在日本选民中的受欢迎程度，反而巩固了她在国防问题上态度强硬的保守派形象。

Young citizens in particular have praised her stance, in a sign that she has struck a cord with a Japanese electorate that has been increasingly willing to question the nation’s longstanding pacifism. And she has been backed by Japanese, American and Taiwanese officials.

尤其是年轻公民对她的立场表示赞赏，这表明她与日益质疑日本长期以来和平主义的日本选民达成了一致。她还得到了日本、美国和台湾官员的支持。

It is too early to say how the spat with China will color Ms. Takaichi’s legacy — she has been in office for less than six weeks. But it is likely to prove a defining early moment of her prime ministership.

高市早苗上任还不到六周，现在评价与中国的争端将如何影响她的政治遗产还为时过早。但这可能是她担任首相早期阶段的一个决定性时刻。

The furor began on Nov. 7. in the Diet, Japan’s Parliament. An opposition lawmaker asked Ms. Takaichi how her administration would designate an effort by China to blockade or invade Taiwan. She said that would constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” implying that in such a scenario Japan would deploy its military in Taiwan’s defense.

这场风波始于11月7日日本国会。一名反对党议员询问高市早苗，日本政府将如何界定中国封锁或入侵台湾的行为。她表示这将构成“存亡危机事态”，暗示日本将在这种情况下派遣自卫队保卫台湾。

While she was repeating what has long been Japan’s prevailing, if rarely verbalized, policy, her remarks caused an uproar in Beijing. The ensuing diplomatic row has brought streams of vitriol, military posturing in contested waters and appeals to the United Nations and President Trump.

尽管这只是重申日本长期以来鲜少明言的主流政策，但她的言论在北京引起了轩然大波。随后的外交争端带来了一连串的尖刻言辞、在争议水域的军事姿态，以及向联合国和特朗普总统的申诉。

Many political analysts and administration officials believe that Ms. Takaichi’s comment was not a calculated move, but rather spontaneous and possibly provoked by the questioner.

许多政治分析家和政府官员认为，高市早苗的言论并非经过深思熟虑，而是脱口而出，可能是被提问者激起。

“The consensus is it wasn’t really a deliberate move on her part,” said Tobias Harris, the founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm. “But once you’ve said that, it’s very difficult to concede anything, because then it’s a question of whether it’s Japan’s prevailing policy or is it not?”

“普遍共识认为这并非她的刻意之举，”政治风险咨询公司日本前瞻的创始人托比亚斯·哈里斯说。“但是一旦这么说了，就很难做出任何让步，因为接下来的问题是，这是否是日本的主流政策？”

“That is why I feel very bearish about this being resolved anytime soon,” Mr. Harris said.

“正因如此，我非常不看好这个问题会在短期内得到解决，”哈里斯说。

The sparring comes at a time when anti-China sentiment has increased in Japan, influenced by narratives of Chinese over-tourism, military expansion near Japanese islands and reports blaming Chinese nationals for driving up rents and land prices by buying assets in Japan.

这场争吵发生之际，日本国内的反华情绪正有所上升，原因是有关中国的过度旅游、在日本岛屿附近的军事扩张，以及指责中国公民通过在日本购买资产推高租金和地价的报道。

This attitude is especially shared among younger generations, a key demographic for Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, whose popularity has weakened because it has strained to appeal to younger voters.

这种态度在年轻一代中尤其普遍，而这一群体对于高市早苗所在的自民党至关重要，该党因难以吸引年轻选民而出现支持率下滑。

A nationwide poll conducted last weekend by the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan’s largest newspaper, showed that 64 percent of those aged 18-39 approved of the Takaichi government’s stance toward China. That compared to a 43 percent approval rate from those over 60, while the overall approval was 56 percent.

日本最大的报纸《读卖新闻》上周末进行的一项全国民意调查显示，在18岁至39岁的受访者中，64%的人赞成高市政府对中国的立场。相比之下，60岁以上人群的支持率为43%，而总体支持率为56%。

5月，在冲绳训练的日本士兵。部分日本选民似乎质疑该国二战后奉行的和平主义政策。

On Tuesday evening, Mai Hosoda, 23, and Rino Nakatani, 24, were on their way home from work at a bank in Nara, a city near Kyoto famous for free-roaming deer that inhabit its parks. They both said they were supportive of the tough stance Ms. Takaichi, who hails from Nara, has taken toward China.

周二晚上，23岁的细田麻衣（音）和24岁的中谷里乃（音）从奈良的一家银行下班回家。奈良位于京都附近，以公园里自由漫步的鹿群而闻名。两人均表示支持出身奈良的高市早苗对华强硬立场。

Ms. Nakatani said she had recently seen a smattering of social media posts of Chinese tourists feeding strange things to the Nara deer, and that her perception of China had worsened because of the diplomatic spat.

中谷里乃说，她最近在社交媒体上看到一些中国游客用奇怪食物喂奈良鹿的帖子，由于外交争端，她对中国印象更差了。

Ms. Hosoda agreed. “It’s a good thing as a leader to have a firm stance about their own country,” she said.

细田麻衣表示同意。“作为领导人，对自己的国家有坚定的立场是一件好事，”她说。

On the world stage, allies have rallied to Ms. Takaichi’s defense. Taiwan has lifted all restrictions on imports of Japanese food, including those on seafood that have been in place since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Taiwan’s president posted a video of himself eating sushi that included Japanese scallops and yellowtail.

在世界舞台上，盟友们团结起来支持高市早苗。台湾已经取消了对日本食品进口的所有限制，包括自2011年福岛核灾难以来实施的海产品进口限制。台湾总统发布视频，展示自己食用含日本扇贝和鰤鱼的寿司。

The top American diplomat in Japan also voiced support. “Directly from the president and from myself and from the embassy for the Prime Minister, we have her back,” U.S. Ambassador George Glass said last week.

美国驻日本最高外交官也表示了支持。美国大使乔治·格拉斯上周称：“总统本人直接表示，我和大使馆也表示，我们支持她。”

For some observers, an incendiary comment about China from Ms. Takaichi has always been in the cards given her long-held nationalist leanings and public statements.

对于一些观察人士来说，鉴于高市早苗长期以来的民族主义倾向和公开声明，她对中国发表煽动性言论早就有迹可循。

Like many right-wing Japanese lawmakers, Ms. Takaichi has been a frequent visitor to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, where Japan’s war dead, including some war criminals, are commemorated. Her visits have consistently sparked official protests and condemnation from China, where Japanese troops committed atrocities during World War II, as well as South Korea, a former colony of Japan.

与众多日本右翼议员相似，高市早苗频繁参拜东京靖国神社，该神社供奉着日本战死者，其中包括部分战犯。她的参拜行为一直引发中国和韩国政府的抗议与谴责——二战期间，日军在中国犯下暴行，韩国则曾是日本的殖民地。

高市早苗2014年参拜东京靖国神社，她的频繁参拜引发中国和韩国的谴责。

However, some fear that tensions have risen too high. A former prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, criticized Ms. Takaichi, telling a local news station this week that Japan’s response to a Taiwan contingency was not a matter to be discussed so openly.

然而，一些人担心紧张局势已经升级。日本前首相石破茂批评了高市早苗，他本周在接受当地一家新闻台采访时表示，日本对台湾突发事件的反应不应该如此公开地讨论。

“Successive administrations have handled this with the utmost caution. That is how sensitive the Japan-China relationship is,” he said. “This is not about being able to say whatever one wants. Nor is it about simply gaining higher approval ratings.”

“历届政府都以极其谨慎的态度处理此事，日中关系就是这么敏感，”他说。“这并非关乎能否随心所欲地发言，更不是为了单纯提升支持率。”

Beijing’s reactions have included asking the United Nations to distribute a strong criticism of Ms. Takaichi’s remarks to member countries. On Tuesday, Japan said it scrambled fighter jets after detecting a drone, believed to be Chinese, near an island in its south where it is planning to deploy antiaircraft missiles.

北京的反应包括要求联合国向成员国散发一份对高市早苗言论的强烈批评。周二，日本表示，在日本南部一个岛屿附近发现一架据信是中国的无人机后，日本战斗机紧急升空。日本计划在该岛屿部署防空导弹。

Beijing has also sought to ratchet up economic pressure. It has halted seafood imports from Japan and advised its citizens to avoid traveling to the country, warning that visiting it now poses risks to their safety. Hong Kong authorities have also urged residents to exercise vigilance in visiting Japan.

北京还试图加大经济压力。中国已停止从日本进口海产品，并建议其公民避免前往日本，警告当前赴日存在安全风险。香港当局也敦促居民在访问日本时提高警惕。

Visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for over a quarter of all foreign arrivals to Japan last year. The dispute with Beijing could cost Japan as much as $1.2 billion in tourist spending by the end of the year, according to China Trading Desk, a research firm.

去年，来自中国大陆和香港的游客占日本外国游客总数的四分之一以上。据研究机构China Trading Desk称，到今年年底，与北京的争端可能会使日本的旅游支出减少多达12亿美元。

上周，东京热门观光地浅草寺迎来了大批中国游客。有机构估算，此次争端可能导致日本损失逾10亿美元的游客消费。

Yoshitsugu Tone runs a dried-foods shop in Nara that he said is frequented by Chinese tourists, who come to buy Goji berries. He is worried business will be hurt by a drop off in Chinese visitors and said that Ms. Takaichi shouldn’t have provoked China.

奈良的干货店店主利根义嗣（音）说，经常有中国游客来他的店里买枸杞。他担心中国游客减少会影响生意，并说高市早苗不应该激怒中国。

“Japan also did wrong things in the past against China and Korea,” said Mr. Tone, 85. The prime minister “stepped on the tail of the tiger, when she should have just left things untouched.”

“日本过去对中国和韩国也做过错事，”85岁的利根义嗣说。首相“本来不该惹事，偏要踩到老虎尾巴”。

Earlier this month, a Chinese diplomat in Japan attacked Ms. Takaichi directly, posting a call on social media to cut off her “filthy head.” Chinese state media has started releasing cartoons depicting her in outfits linked with wartime Japan.

本月早些时候，一名中国驻日外交官直接攻击高市早苗，在社交媒体上发帖呼吁砍掉她“肮脏的头颅”。中国官方媒体开始发布她穿着与战时日本相关服装的漫画。

“The Chinese side believes that the more pressure they apply to Japan, the more submissive the Japanese will become — the more difficult Ms. Takaichi’s position will become,” said Ichiro Korogi, a China expert and professor at Kanda University of International Studies.

“中国方面认为，他们对日本施加的压力越大，日本人就会变得越顺从——高市早苗的处境就会变得越困难，”神田外语大学的中国问题专家兴梠一郎教授说。

The problem is that Ms. Takaichi has already clarified that she will not retract her statements, Mr. Korogi said. Beijing’s recent actions, he said, are boosting Ms. Takaichi’s popularity.

兴梠一郎说，问题在于高市早苗已经澄清了她不会收回自己的言论。他认为北京近期的行动反而提升了高市早苗的民意支持度。

He added: “The more pressure China puts on Japan, the more Japanese people actually unite.”

他还说：“中国对日本施加的压力越大，日本人实际上就越团结。”

Tong PingMoon said he first smelled smoke around 3 p.m. on Wednesday, and soon after, a firefighter banged on the door of his 10th floor apartment in Hong Kong to tell him a nearby building was on fire. Mr. Tong, 74, and his wife refused to evacuate then, thinking they would be all right, but the smoke soon got worse.

唐平满（音）说，最初是在周三下午约3点，他闻到了烟味。随后不久，一名消防员敲响了他位于10楼公寓的门，告知附近一栋建筑起火了。74岁的唐平满和妻子起初拒绝疏散，认为不会有危险，但烟雾很快变浓了。

The couple, residents of Wang Fuk Court in the city’s Tai Po district, then called for help and hid in the bathroom, using wet towels to cover their faces and guard against smoke coming through the gap under the door. They were rescued by firefighters around 6 p.m. and were staying at a school being used as a temporary shelter.

这对居住在香港大埔区宏福苑的夫妇随后拨打了求助电话，并躲进浴室，用湿毛巾捂住口鼻，防范从门缝渗入的浓烟。他们在晚上6点左右被消防员救出，目前暂住在一所作为临时庇护所的学校里。

“We were so lucky. It was pitch dark,” Mr. Tong said. “We wouldn’t have made it if we had to head out by ourselves.”

“我们太幸运了。当时漆黑一片，”唐平满说。“如果我们靠自己逃生，可能就没命了。”

The fire in Tai Po started in one high-rise building in the midafternoon, and residents recounted how quickly it spread, forcing many to flee or seek help from firefighters. An unknown number of residents were trapped in the burning building, the officials said.

大埔火灾始于周三下午，从一栋高层建筑开始，居民描述火势迅速蔓延，迫使许多人仓皇逃生或等待救援。官员们表示，目前仍有不明数量的居民被困在燃烧的大楼内。

一些居民在消防员的帮助下成功逃生。

Some of those who escaped stood outside around midnight, watching firefighters try to tame the inferno.

一些已逃离的居民午夜时分仍站在外面，注视着消防员与烈焰搏斗。

“How can I go to sleep while my home is being burned down?” said Sze Kam Sang, a retiree in his 70s, quietly clutching a small cotton blanket and watching the fire in the crowd. He has been living in Wang Fuk Court for about 40 years and was at a doctor’s appointment when he heard about the fire from his wife, who was working nearby.

“家都着火了，我怎么睡得着？”70多岁的退休人员施锦生（音）静静抱着一条小棉毯，在人群中注视火势。他在宏福苑住了约40年，火灾发生时正在看医生，当时在附近工作的妻子打电话告诉他这一消息。

He hoped the fire hadn’t wiped out his 19th-floor apartment yet. The lower floors were clearly ablaze.

他希望大火尚未吞没他位于19楼的公寓，楼下几层已火光冲天。

周四凌晨，大火仍在燃烧，距起火已近12小时。

Mr. Sze added that a few small fires had been reported over the years, but not on this scale. He said the building was undergoing its first major maintenance project in four decades. It was encased in bamboo scaffolding, which is commonly used in Hong Kong for construction projects.

施锦生说，这些年来小区也曾发生过几起小火，但从未达到如此规模。他透露，这栋楼正在进行40年来的首次大规模维修，外围搭满了香港建筑项目常用的竹脚手架。

Early Thursday, the fire was still burning through the 32-story apartment towers, sending smoke into the sky. The bamboo scaffolding cracked and burst with showers of sparks. Dozens of fire trucks and ambulances were parked, their lights blinking.

周四清晨，大火仍在吞噬这座32层高的公寓楼，浓烟直冲天际。竹脚手架噼啪作响，迸发出阵阵火花。现场停着数十辆消防车和救护车，警灯闪烁。

Lam Chi -Tong, a 71-year-old cleaner, was working in a police station near her home at Wang Fuk Court when she got a call from her son around 4 p.m. on Wednesday to tell her that a nearby building had caught fire. She hurried back to her complex, only to find that her building, along with others, was also ablaze.

71岁的清洁工林智彤（音）周三下午4点左右正在家附近的警察局工作，接到儿子电话告知附近建筑起火。她匆忙赶回小区，却发现自己居住的大楼以及其他几栋楼也已陷入火海。

“I’ve lived here for 30 years. I just want to sit here and watch,” she said with a sigh as the fire continued to burn into the night.

“我在这里住了30年，现在只想坐在一边看着，”她望着持续燃烧至深夜的大火，叹了口气。

建筑物被竹制脚手架包裹，这种脚手架在香港的建筑工程中很常见。

President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan said his government would introduce a $40 billion special budget for military spending that will focus on acquiring more of the nimble, mobile weapons from the United States that it needs to deter and outsmart China’s far larger military forces.

台湾总统赖清德表示，他的政府将提出一项400亿美元的特别军事预算，从美国采购更多灵活、机动的武器，以威慑并智胜规模远大于台湾的中国军队。

The proposed spending, which would be in addition to the main annual military budget, is politically important for Mr. Lai’s government, which has come under pressure from the Trump administration to increase defense outlays. Beijing asserts that Taiwan is its territory, and says that it could use armed force to take the island if it deems necessary.

这项拟议支出将作为年度国防预算之外的特别预算，对赖清德政府来说具有重要政治意义，因为特朗普政府一直向台施压，要求其增加国防开支。北京声称台湾是中国领土，并表示如有必要可动用武力夺取该岛。

Mr. Lai announced the military spending goal at a news conference in Taipei on Wednesday and laid out other proposed steps to counter what he described as a growing threat posed by China’s military intimidation and political infiltration.

赖清德于周三在台北举行的新闻发布会上公布了这个特别军事预算，并提出了其他拟议措施，以应对他所称的中国的军事恫吓与政治渗透所带来的日益严重的威胁。

“History demonstrates that compromising with aggressors ultimately brings only endless aftermaths of war and subjugation,” Mr. Lai said, citing the example of Western appeasement of Nazi Germany before World War II. Defending Taiwan, Mr. Lai said, “must be the shared responsibility of the government, opposition parties and all Taiwanese people.”

“历史证明，向侵略妥协，最后只会换得无止境的战祸和奴役，”赖清德引用了二战前西方对纳粹德国绥靖的例子。赖清德表示，守护台湾“必须是政府、朝野以及全体台湾人共同的责任”。

He said that the special budget, which amounts to 1.25 trillion Taiwanese dollars, would also be used to build up the island’s domestic weapons industry by 2033. Mr. Lai’s proposal must be approved by Taiwan’s legislature, where it may be blocked by opposition parties.

他说，这项金额达新台币1.25兆的特别预算也将用于在2033年前加强台湾自己的武器制造产业。赖清德的提案必须获得台湾立法院的批准，而在野党可能会加以阻挠。

Mr. Lai’s government has also proposed increasing the regular defense budget for 2026. In total, the additional spending could take Taiwan’s military outlays to 3.3 percent of its economic output next year, Mr. Lai said. The Trump administration has pressed Taiwan to spend at least 5 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, up from its current level of about 2.45 percent. Mr. Lai said that he is committed to meeting the Trump administration’s target by 2030.

赖政府还提议提高2026年的常规国防预算。赖清德表示，总体来看，这些额外支出可能使台湾明年的国防开支达到其经济产出的3.3%。特朗普政府一直要求台湾将国防支出提高至其国内生产总值的至少5%，高于目前约2.45%的水平。赖清德表示，他承诺将在2030年前达成特朗普政府设定的目标。

2023年台湾军队在八里区演习。赖清德政府提议明年将军费开支提高到台湾经济产出的3.3%。

Mr. Lai’s announcement underscores the growing pressure on Taiwan by China, which in recent days has also sought to punish Japan for supporting Taiwan. China has mounted a ferocious campaign of denunciations and travel boycotts after Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told Parliament that an effort by China to blockade or invade Taiwan could force Japan to deploy its military forces.

赖清德的声明凸显了中国对台日益增长的压力，而中国近日也试图因日本支持台湾而惩罚日本。日本新首相高市早苗在国会表示，如果中国试图封锁或入侵台湾，日本可能被迫动用自卫队，这之后，中国发起了猛烈的谴责和抵制旅游的行动。

Previous Japanese prime ministers had avoided specifying how they would respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan for fear of provoking a domestic political backlash, but Ms. Takaichi’s tough stance has so far been met with strong public approval.

历任日本首相为了避免引发国内政治反弹，一直不明确说明如果中国攻击台湾他们将如何回应，但高市早苗的强硬立场迄今获得了广泛的民众支持。

Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, said that the proposed increases in military spending would be used to build a multilayered missile defense system and acquire more drones and unmanned boats. American military officials and experts have been urging Taiwan to focus on these kinds of weapons, instead of conventional ships and fighter aircraft, to better deter China.

台湾国防部长顾立雄表示，拟议增加的军费将用于打造多层防空系统，并采购更多无人飞机与舰艇。美国军方官员和专家一直敦促台湾将重点放在这类武器上，而不是传统的舰船和战斗机，以更好地威慑中国。

Even with sufficient funding, such an upgrade in military hardware would be a challenge because the armed forces would require specialized training to operate the new and more sophisticated weapons, said Lin Ying-yu, an associate professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan who specializes in military issues. “I believe this area still requires considerable work on our part,” he said.

台湾淡江大学研究军事问题的林颖佑副教授指出，即使有足够的资金，军事装备的升级也是一个挑战，因为军队需要经过专门训练才能操作这些更先进、更精密的新武器。他说：“我会觉得这一块我们还会需要一些努力。”

Mr. Lai’s proposal faces potential obstacles in the legislature, where his Democratic Progressive Party is outnumbered by the main opposition party, called the Nationalist Party or Kuomintang, as well as a smaller group, the Taiwan People’s Party.

 赖清德的计划在立法院可能面临来自主要反对党国民党以及规模更小的台湾民众党的阻力。民进党在立法院的席次少于国民党。  

The Nationalist Party said in a statement that it was concerned that the extra spending proposed by Mr. Lai would require heavy borrowing by the government. It also criticized Mr. Lai for having announced his proposal to the media without first raising it with the legislature.

国民党发表声明，表示担心赖清德提出的国防特别预算将迫使政府大量举债。声明还批评赖清德在没有向立法院说明的情况下，就直接投书媒体公布了这一计划。

Opposition lawmakers have criticized the Lai administration for not doing enough to address serious delays in the delivery of U.S. weapons already ordered, including F-16 fighter jets. They have also criticized a project by Mr. Lai’s administration to build a new fleet of submarines, calling it a waste of money.

反对党立委批评赖政府未能采取足够措施解决从美国订购的武器（包括F-16战机）交付严重延迟的问题。他们还批评赖政府打造新潜舰舰队的计划，认为那是在浪费资金。

The recently elected chairwoman of the Nationalist Party, Cheng Li-wun, has objected to sharply increasing Taiwan’s military spending. Ms. Cheng is not a member of the legislature, but her views could hold sway over some Nationalist lawmakers.

国民党新当选的党主席郑丽文反对大幅增加台湾的国防开支。郑丽文虽然不是立委，但她的观点可能会影响部分国民党立委。

In an interview this week, Ms. Cheng said she agreed with “reasonable” levels of military outlays for Taiwan, but maintained that dialogue with Beijing was the way to ensure the island’s security against China’s much larger armed forces. “I believe the priority lies in a political approach, not through substantial increases in military spending,” she said.

在本周的一次采访中，郑丽文表示，她同意台湾应有“合理的”国防支出，但仍坚持认为，与北京对话才是确保台湾在面对中国更庞大军力时维持安全的方式。她说：“我认为优先的解决方法是政治上面的解决方法，而不是透过大幅提高军备预算。”

Raymond Greene, the United States’ de facto ambassador in Taipei, welcomed Mr. Lai’s announcement and urged the island’s opposition parties to back the increase in military spending.

美国在台事实上的大使谷立言(Raymond Greene)对赖清德的宣布表示欢迎，并敦促台湾在野党支持增加军费。

“Just as support for Taiwan is a longstanding U.S. bipartisan priority, I expect Taiwan’s political parties will find similar common ground,” he said in a social media post.

他在社交媒体上发贴称：“正如支持台湾一直是美国两党长期以来的优先事项，我期待台湾的各政党也会达成共识。”

A deadly fire that tore through several high-rise apartment towers in Hong Kong was still burning into the early morning on Thursday, 10 hours after it started. The fire killed at least 36 people and left 279 missing, said Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee.

一场致命的大火席卷了香港数栋高层公寓，截至周四凌晨，火势仍在蔓延，距离起火已过去10个小时。香港特首李家超表示，这场火灾已造成至少36人死亡，另有279人失踪。

The officials said 29 people were hospitalized, with seven in critical condition.

官员称有29人被送医，其中七人情况危急。

The cause of the fire was not immediately known. Hundreds of firefighters struggled to contain the inferno, which apparently started in one building in the Tai Po district around 2:50 p.m. local time.

火灾原因尚未查明。数百名消防员奋力扑救。火势似乎始于当地时间下午2点50分左右，起火处位于大埔区的一栋建筑物内。

The flames spread across multiple high-rise towers and sent smoke billowing across the city’s northern New Territories.

火势蔓延至多栋高层建筑，浓烟笼罩了香港北部的新界地区。

The towers are in a dense complex known as Wang Fuk Court that includes about 2,000 apartments. Built in the early 1980s, they were sheathed at the time of the blaze in bamboo scaffolding, which is widely used in Hong Kong to construct and repair buildings.

这些高楼位于一个名为“宏福苑”的密集住宅区，这里约有2000个住宅单位。这些高楼建于20世纪80年代初，火灾发生时外墙包覆着竹制脚手架，这种脚手架在香港被广泛用于建筑物的建造和维修。

A government spokeswoman had said earlier that three of the first five injured people treated at hospitals were in critical condition, according to a report from the city’s hospital authority.

据香港医院管理局的报告，一位政府发言人早些时候表示，最先送往医院的五名伤者中，有三人情况危殆。

The authorities raised their most severe fire alarm for the first time in nearly two decades.

当局启动了近20年来首次最高级别火警警报。

Officials with the police and fire services said they had received numerous calls for help from residents trapped inside the buildings. Herman Yiu Kwan-ho, a former district councilor in Tai Po, said that he was in touch with a group of local residents, some of whom live in one of the buildings that caught fire. “More than 10 residents said their family members are still at their homes,” he said by phone.

警方和消防部门官员表示，他们接到了大量被困居民的求助电话。大埔区前区议员姚钧豪表示，他已与一些当地居民取得联系，其中一些人就住在着火的楼宇中。“超过10名居民说，他们的家人仍在家中，”他在电话中说。

The Hong Kong Fire Services Department said that it had sent 760 rescuers to the site. John Lee, the city’s chief executive, said that he was activating the city’s Emergency Accident Monitoring and Support Center.

香港消防处表示，已派遣760名救援人员到现场。特首李家超表示，他已启动全市紧急事故监察与支援中心。

Here’s what else to know:

以下是其他值得关注的情况：

• Bamboo scaffolding: Bamboo scaffolding is often used for renovations to older buildings in Hong Kong, which typically have many senior residents. The Hong Kong government announced plans last spring to begin phasing out the use of bamboo in scaffolding in favor of steel, which it said posed less of a fire risk. In October, the fire department attributed the rapid spread of a fire at an office building in Hong Kong’s central business district, which injured four people, to scaffolding around the building. The authorities have not publicly said that the scaffolding contributed to the Tai Po fire.

• 竹制脚手架：竹制脚手架常用于香港老旧建筑的翻新工程，这些建筑内通常居住着许多老人。香港政府于春天宣布计划逐步淘汰竹制脚手架，改用钢制脚手架，理由是后者的火灾风险更低。今年10月，消防处将中环商业区一栋办公楼大火的迅速蔓延（造成四人受伤）归咎于大楼外部的脚手架。当局尚未公开表示竹制脚手架是否助长了大埔火灾的蔓延。

• Rescue effort: Derek Armstrong Chan, deputy director of the fire service department, told reporters at the news briefing that the rescue effort was hindered by falling debris and scaffolding as well as high temperatures inside the buildings, making it difficult to access units where residents might be trapped. The ladders of two fire trucks appeared to reach only about halfway up the sides of the 32-story towers, and the tallest flames were far higher than where the water was being sprayed.

• 救援行动：消防处副处长陈庆勇在新闻发布会上告诉记者，由于坠落的残骸和脚手架，以及楼内高温，救援工作受到阻碍，救援人员难以进入可能有居民被困的单位。现场两辆消防车的云梯似乎只能达到32层大楼的一半高度，而最高处的火焰远高于喷水的位置。

• Shelters: The government said it had opened temporary shelters at nearby community centers and a school to accommodate residents. Local news media published photos of some older residents being helped away from the fire and gathering at the shelters, and described police officers going door to door to urge residents to leave.

• 临时庇护所：政府表示，已在附近的社区中心和一所学校开放临时庇护所。当地媒体发布的照片显示，一些年长居民在协助下撤离并聚集在庇护所内，还有报道称警员正挨家挨户上门劝说居民撤离。

The day before Halloween, President Trump landed at Joint Base Andrews after spending nearly a week in Japan and South Korea. He was then whisked to the White House, where he passed out candy to trick-or-treaters. Allies crowed over the president’s stamina: “This man has been nonstop for DAYS!” one wrote online.

万圣节前一天，在结束了对日本和韩国近一周的访问后，特朗普总统的专机降落在安德鲁斯联合基地。他被迅速送往白宫，在那里向“不给糖就捣蛋”的孩子们分发糖果。盟友们对总统的体力大加赞赏：“这个人已经连续好几天连轴转了！”其中一人在网上写道。

A week later, Mr. Trump appeared to doze off during an event in the Oval Office.

一周后，特朗普在椭圆形办公室的一次活动中似乎睡着了。

With headline-grabbing posts on social media, combative interactions with reporters and speeches full of partisan red meat, Mr. Trump can project round-the-clock energy, virility and physical stamina. Now at the end of his eighth decade, Mr. Trump and the people around him still talk about him as if he is the Energizer Bunny of presidential politics.

凭借引人注目的社交媒体帖子、与记者的激烈交锋以及充满党派色彩的煽动性演讲，特朗普能够展现出全天候的精力、旺盛的活力和强健的体力。现在虽已年近八旬，但他和周围的人仍然将其描绘成总统政治中的“劲量电池兔”。

The reality is more complicated: Mr. Trump, 79, is the oldest person to be elected to the presidency, and he is aging. To pre-empt any criticism about his age, he often compares himself to President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who at 82 was the oldest person to hold the office, and whose aides took measures to shield his growing frailty from the public, including by tightly managing his appearances.

现实情况则没那么简单：79岁的特朗普以有史以来最大的年龄当选，而且他正在衰老。为了先发制人地应对任何关于其年龄的批评，他经常将自己与拜登总统相提并论。拜登卸任时82岁，是担任该职位的最年长者，其助手曾采取措施向公众掩盖其日益衰弱的状况，包括严格管理他的露面活动。

特朗普在他于白宫柱廊设置的“总统星光步道”上，把原本属于拜登总统的位置换成了一张自动签名机的照片。

Mr. Trump remains almost omnipresent in American life. He appears before the news media and takes questions far more often than Mr. Biden did. Foreign leaders, chief executives, donors and others have regular access to Mr. Trump and see him in action.

特朗普在美国生活中仍然几乎无处不在。他在新闻媒体面前露面并回答提问的频率远高于拜登。外国领导人、首席执行官、捐款人等等各界人士都能经常接触到特朗普，并亲眼见证他的实际状态。

Still, nearly a year into his second term, Americans see Mr. Trump less than they used to, according to a New York Times analysis of his schedule. Mr. Trump has fewer public events on his schedule and is traveling domestically much less than he did by this point during his first year in office, in 2017, although he is taking more foreign trips.

尽管如此，根据《纽约时报》对其日程安排的分析，在他第二任期即将满一年之际，美国民众见到特朗普的机会比过去少了。与2017年首个任期的同一时间节点相比，特朗普日程上的公开活动减少了，国内出行也大幅下降，尽管他进行了更多的出访。

He also keeps a shorter public schedule than he used to. Most of his public appearances fall between noon and 5 p.m., on average.

他的公开日程也比过去缩短了。平均而言，他的大部分公开露面都集中在中午到下午5点之间。

And when he is in public, occasionally, his battery shows signs of wear. During an Oval Office event that began around noon on Nov. 6, Mr. Trump sat behind his desk for about 20 minutes as executives standing around him talked about weight-loss drugs.

当他在公共场合露面时，偶尔也会表现出精力不济的迹象。在11月6日中午左右开始的一场椭圆形办公室活动中，当环立四周的企业高管们讨论减肥药时，特朗普在办公桌后坐了大约20分钟。

At one point, Mr. Trump’s eyelids drooped until his eyes were almost closed, and he appeared to doze on and off for several seconds. At another point, he opened his eyes and looked toward a line of journalists watching him. He stood up only after a guest who was standing near him fainted and collapsed.

某一刻，特朗普的眼皮耷拉下来，直到眼睛几乎闭上，似乎断断续续地打了几秒钟瞌睡。在另一刻，他睁开眼睛，看向注视着他的一排记者。直到站在他附近的一位客人晕倒在地，他才站起身来。

Mr. Trump has prompted additional questions about his health by sharing news about medical procedures he has had, but not details about them. While in Asia, Mr. Trump revealed that he had undergone magnetic resonance imaging at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in early October.

特朗普分享了他接受医疗处置的新闻，但未提供细节，这引发了关于他健康状况的更多疑问。在亚洲之行期间，特朗普透露他于10月初在沃尔特·里德国家军事医疗中心接受了核磁共振检查。

“I gave you the full results,” Mr. Trump told reporters, mischaracterizing the summary that was released by his physician, which did not say that Mr. Trump had an M.R.I. scan and contained few other details.

“我给了你们完整的结果，”特朗普告诉记者，但这与医生发布的内容摘要存在出入，该摘要并未提及特朗普进行了核磁共振扫描，别的细节也寥寥无几。

Mr. Trump also applies makeup to a bruise on the back of his right hand, adding speculation about a medical condition that his physician and aides say is caused by taking aspirin and shaking so many hands. In September, the bruising on his hand, coupled with swollen ankles, caused observers on the internet to speculate wildly about his health.

特朗普还在右手背的淤青上涂抹遮瑕膏，这加剧了对其健康状况的猜测。他的医生和助手称这是服用阿司匹林和频繁握手造成的。9月，他手上的淤青加上脚踝肿胀，曾引发互联网观察人士对其健康状况的疯狂猜测。

In response to a list of questions about Mr. Trump’s health, including about the results of his M.R.I. and whether or not he was falling asleep in the Oval Office, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, praised the president’s energy and pointed to Mr. Biden.

针对一系列关于特朗普健康状况的质疑，包括其核磁共振结果以及是否在椭圆形办公室睡着，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特赞扬了总统的精力，并将矛头指向了拜登。

“Unlike the Biden White House, who covered up Joe Biden’s cognitive decline and hid him from the press, President Trump and his entire team have been open and transparent about the president’s health, which remains exceptional,” Ms. Leavitt said in a statement.

“不像拜登白宫那样掩盖乔·拜登的认知衰退并让他躲避媒体，特朗普总统及其整个团队一直对总统的健康状况保持公开和透明，他的健康状况依然非常出色，”利维特在一份声明中说。

Later Starts, Fewer Events

开始得更晚，日程安排更少

2020年10月，特朗普在沃尔特·里德国家军事医疗中心接受新冠治疗后返回白宫，他在白宫阳台上摘下了口罩。

For years, concerns and questions about Mr. Trump’s health have often been met with obfuscation or minimal explanation from the people around him. Mr. Trump’s physicians have not taken questions from reporters in years, including when he was seriously ill with Covid in 2020. There were no medical briefings held after an assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pa., last summer.

多年来，对于特朗普健康状况的担忧和质疑往往只会得到其身边人员含糊其辞或三言两语的解释。特朗普的医生多年来未接受过记者的提问，包括他在2020年因感染新冠病毒而病情严重时。去年夏天他在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒遇刺未遂后，也没有举行任何医疗简报会。

Many of the facts that concerned critics about Mr. Trump’s physical health during his first term are present now. He does not get regular exercise, in part because he has a long-held theory that people are born with a finite amount of energy and that vigorous activity can deplete that reserve, like a battery. He enjoys red meat and is known to eat McDonald’s by the sackful.

特朗普首个任期内引发批评者担忧的诸多健康隐患至今依然存在。他不进行规律锻炼，部分原因是他长期持有一种理论，认为人出生时能量是有限的，剧烈运动会像电池一样耗尽这种储备。他喜欢红肉，并以大量吃麦当劳而闻名。

According to his physician, however, he has lost weight. In 2020, Mr. Trump tipped the scales at 244 pounds, a weight formally deemed obese for his 6-foot-3 frame. This year, Mr. Trump’s physician, Dr. Sean P. Barbabella, said in a summary of the president’s health that he weighed 224 pounds.

然而，据他的医生说，他体重减轻了。2020年，特朗普的体重达到244磅（合约110公斤），对于他6英尺3英寸（约合190厘米）的身高来说，这达到了肥胖标准。今年，特朗普的医生肖恩·P·巴巴贝拉博士在总统健康摘要中称，他的体重为224磅（约合102公斤）。

“President Trump exhibits excellent cognitive and physical health and is fully fit to execute the duties of the commander in chief and head of state,” Dr. Barbabella wrote in April.

“特朗普总统表现出极佳的认知和身体健康状况，完全适合履行总司令和国家元首的职责，”巴巴贝拉在4月份写道。

10月，特朗普在进行为期一天的中东之行后离开埃及。

Still, in his second term, Mr. Trump’s schedule shows some significant changes.

尽管如此，在他的第二任期里，特朗普的日程安排显示出一些显著变化。

According to a Times analysis of the official presidential schedules in a database maintained by Roll Call, Mr. Trump’s first official event starts later in the day. In 2017, the first year of his first term, Mr. Trump’s scheduled events started at 10:31 a.m. on average. By contrast, Mr. Trump in his second term has started scheduled events in the afternoon on average, at 12:08 p.m. His events end on average at around the same time as they did during the first year of his first term, shortly after 5 p.m.

根据《纽约时报》对Roll Call维护的数据库中总统官方日程的分析，特朗普的首场官方活动的时间明显推迟了。在2017年，即他第一任期的第一年，特朗普的预定活动平均于上午10:31开始。相比之下，特朗普在第二任期的预定活动平均于下午开始，时间为12:08。他的活动结束时间平均与第一任期第一年大致相同，即下午5点刚过。

The number of Mr. Trump’s total official appearances has decreased by 39 percent. In 2017, Mr. Trump held 1,688 official events between Jan. 20 and Nov. 25 of that year. For that same time period this year, Mr. Trump has appeared in 1,029 official events.

特朗普的官方露面总数减少了39%。2017年，特朗普在1月20日至当年11月25日期间主持了1688场官方活动。而在今年的同一时期，特朗普出席了1029场官方活动。

Mr. Trump still regularly comes down to the Oval Office after 11 a.m., according to a person familiar with his schedule. This routine is a holdover from his first term: After he complained about being overscheduled in the mornings, Mr. Trump kept so-called executive time hours in the White House residence before he headed downstairs for work.

据一位熟悉其日程安排的人士透露，特朗普仍经常在上午11点之后才来到椭圆形办公室。这是他在第一任期就有的习惯：在抱怨上午日程安排过满后，特朗普会先在白宫住所安排所谓的“行政时间”，然后再下楼办公。

Mr. Trump has kept up frequent international travel, often with tight turnarounds, including a one-day trip to Israel and Egypt in October. Mr. Trump has logged more international travel than he did the first year of his first term; he took four international trips that year and has taken eight so far this year.

特朗普保持着频繁的国际出访，且行程往往非常紧凑，包括10月份对以色列和埃及进行的一日访问。特朗普的国际出行次数超过了他第一任期的第一年；那一年他进行了四次出访，而今年到目前为止已进行了八次。

Mr. Trump holds frequent Oval Office events, posts regularly on social media, and is often at his golf clubs on the weekend, though most of what he does there is shielded from the public.

特朗普频繁在椭圆形办公室举行活动，定期在社交媒体上发帖，并经常在周末前往他的高尔夫俱乐部，不过他在那里的大部分活动都不对公众公开。

过去几个月里，人们在特朗普右手的手背上看到了遮瑕霜的痕迹，官员称那是用来遮盖握手造成的瘀伤。

Mr. Trump has long rambled in his speeches; during his 2024 campaign and in his second term, the meandering has often been noticeable. He can veer off script to share stories that are sometimes riddled with untruths, such as his false claim that his uncle, John Trump, had taught the domestic terrorist Ted Kaczynski at M.I.T.

特朗普在演讲中一直有漫谈的习惯；在他的2024年竞选活动和第二任期中，这种话题游离的现象往往显而易见。他会偏离讲稿去分享一些有时充斥着不实之词的故事，例如他错误地声称他的叔叔约翰·特朗普曾在麻省理工学院教过本国恐怖分子泰德·卡辛斯基。

“I said, ‘What kind of a student was he, Uncle John, Dr. John Trump?’ He said, ‘What kind of a student?’ And then he said, ‘seriously good.’ He said he’d go around correcting everybody,” Mr. Trump said during a speech in Pennsylvania in July. “But it didn’t work out too well for him, didn’t work out too well, but it’s interesting in life. But I will say this that we have the greatest brains, we have the greatest power and we are going to have more electric.”

“我说，‘约翰叔叔，约翰·特朗普博士，他是个什么样的学生？’他说，‘什么样的学生？’然后他说，‘相当出色。’他说他会到处纠正每个人，”特朗普在7月宾夕法尼亚州的一次演讲中说。“但这对他来说结果不太好，结果不太好，但这在生活中很有趣。但我要说的是，我们要有最伟大的头脑，我们有最伟大的力量，我们将拥有更多的电力。”

特朗普与前任一样，在任内几乎没有透露体检情况。最近特朗普在弗吉尼亚州诺福克视察“哈里·S·杜鲁门”号航空母舰。他在第二任期中更多地谈及来世。

With his approval rating falling among voters and more Americans reporting dissatisfaction with the economy, Mr. Trump’s allies have urged him to direct his focus back to domestic affairs. The president’s aides say they expect him to do more travel through the United States ahead of the midterms, but Mr. Trump is also considering a trip to Davos, Switzerland, to attend a conference alongside global leaders and corporate titans in the winter.

随着他在选民中的支持率下降，以及更多美国人对经济表示不满，特朗普的盟友敦促他将重心转回国内事务。总统的助手表示，他们预计他在中期选举前会有更多国内出行，但特朗普也在考虑前往瑞士达沃斯，在冬季与全球领导人和企业巨头一起出席会议。

There is one thing Mr. Trump is doing more of in his second term: talking about the afterlife. He has brought up heaven — and the question of whether he would get in — half a dozen times since taking office for the second time.

特朗普在其第二任期内有一件事做得更多：谈论身后事。自第二次上任以来，他已经不下六次提及天堂——以及他是否能进入天堂的问题。

Central Vietnam has become the latest epicenter of a deadly rainy season in Asia that has been supercharged by climate change, and seems to drag on without end.

越南中部成为亚洲致命雨季的最新重灾区。受气候变化影响，这场雨季强度空前，而且仿佛看不到尽头。

More than 90 people in the nation have been killed in the past week from flooding and landslides, and around a dozen more are missing, government officials reported Sunday.

越南政府官员周日通报称，过去一周内，该国已有超90人因洪水和山体滑坡丧生，另有约十几人失踪。

In one province, more than six feet of rain has fallen over the past few days. Peak coffee harvesting has been delayed. One government report noted that at least 200,000 homes have been flooded from the weekend’s heavy rains.

在其中一个省份，过去几天的降雨量累计超过约1.8米。咖啡收获季被迫推迟。一份政府报告显示，仅周末的强降雨就导致至少20万户家庭被淹。

10月会安遭遇连日暴雨，居民们背着食物前行。

“It’s never happened like this before,” said Dao Dang Cong Trung, 44, the leader of a small rescue team from Hoi An who took his speedboat to the most damaged areas. “Local residents told me the floodwater rose too fast and they didn’t have time to do anything, so the damage is severe to their houses and many people died.”

“以前从未发生过这样的事，”44岁的陶登公忠（音）是会安一支小型救援队的负责人，他驾驶快艇前往受灾最严重的区域救援。“当地居民告诉我，洪水涨得太快，他们根本来不及反应，所以房屋损毁严重，还有很多人遇难。”

Vietnam has been hit by 14 typhoons this year. Five was the average a few decades ago. The rain from the past few days did not even come from a cyclone — but to add inundation on top of injury, a 15th major storm has just formed off the country’s south central coast.

今年越南已遭遇14次台风侵袭。而几十年前，该国平均每年仅有五场台风。过去几天的强降雨甚至并非由气旋引发——更雪上加霜的是，第15场强风暴又已在越南中南部海岸附近形成。

Images of this year’s relentless battering — of thick, soupy brown water sloshing over homes, shops, coffee plantations, tourist hotels and family tombs — have become both ubiquitous and disorienting. They can be hard to place in time, for many, because even as the rainy season is supposed to fade (as of this month), the floods have spread.

今年越南持续遭受灾害侵袭，触目惊心的画面随处可见，浑浊浓稠的泥水淹没了房屋、商铺、咖啡种植园、旅店和家族墓地。这些场景让很多人感觉难以分辨时间——因为按照往年规律，本月雨季本应逐渐消退，但如今洪水却仍然在持续蔓延。

强风将树木吹弯。台风卡吉克于8月登陆后，倒下的树木阻塞了宁平省的一条道路。

Central Vietnam has been the hardest hit, from around Da Nang last month to more than 300 miles south, near Nha Trang, where the suffering is concentrated now.

越南中部受灾最为严重。上月灾情集中在岘港一带，如今向南蔓延至约500公里外的芽庄附近区域。

But Ho Chi Minh City flooded in August and again in early November. Hanoi was underwater last month, in a two-week period when three typhoons hit Vietnam. The rivers around Hue, a onetime royal capital, rose by 17 feet during a wet stretch of October, carrying muck into carefully restored historic buildings.

此外，胡志明市在8月和11月初先后遭遇洪水；上月越南连续遭遇三场台风袭击，首都河内被洪水淹没；10月多雨期内,昔日的皇城顺化周边河流水位上涨了约5.2米，浑浊的泥水涌入了精心修复的历史建筑。

Frequent wars and hardship, along with a forward-looking culture, have made the Vietnamese people extremely resilient. Standing on tables to stay dry and pushing motorbikes through sludge, few have complained or assigned blame.

频繁的战乱与磨难，加之积极进取的文化氛围，造就了越南民众极强的韧性。他们或站在桌子上躲避洪水，或推着摩托车在淤泥中前行，鲜有人抱怨或指责他人。

本月早些时候，一辆摩托车在胡志明市被洪水淹没的街道上疾驰而过。上周在越南达克拉克省和盛乡，人们卸下一名洪水遇难者的棺木。

Donors in drier areas have been quick to mobilize. In Ho Chi Minh City, metro stations became collection sites Sunday for mountains of food and clothing to help those farther north.

降水较少地区的捐赠者迅速行动起来。周日，胡志明市的多个地铁站成了物资收集点，堆积如山的食品和衣物将被送往北部受灾地区。

Online and in private, however, some Vietnamese have begun to criticize the government’s lack of preparedness and slow response. Natural disasters have left nearly 300 people dead or missing in Vietnam and caused more than $2 billion in damage between January and October, according to the national statistics office.

不过，在网络上和私下场合，已有部分越南民众开始批评政府防灾准备不足、救灾响应迟缓。越南国家统计局数据显示，今年1月至10月，自然灾害已造成该国近300人遇难或失踪，经济损失超20亿美元。

Why, many ask, aren’t alarm and evacuation systems providing more help to residents as rivers rise? Why aren’t mitigation systems stronger, guiding water away from population centers?

许多人质疑：为何河流水位上涨时，警报和疏散系统未能给居民提供更多帮助？为何防洪系统不够有力，无法将洪水引离人口密集区？

10月，一名男子在会安的洪水中涉水而行。本月早些时候，越南顺化市翠山中村一户人家在受淹的家中吃午餐。

Huynh Ngoc Phuong, 51, said the discharge from dozens of reservoirs for irrigation and hydropower seemed to contribute to the flooding.

51岁的黄玉芳（音）表示，数十座灌溉和水力发电水库的泄洪操作，似乎是加剧洪水灾情的原因之一。

To save his family from waters that rose by three feet in 20 minutes on the night of Nov. 19, he said he had to punch a hole in the roof of his home in the central province of Khanh Hoa. One of his children almost drowned. At least three of his neighbors were killed.

11月19日夜间，他家所在的庆和省洪水在20分钟内就上涨了约一米。为了救家人，他不得不砸破自家屋顶。他的一个孩子险些溺水身亡，至少三位邻居在洪灾中丧生。

“The whole village is destroyed — trash, TVs, fridges and mud are everywhere,” he said in an interview Monday after the waters receded but government aid had still yet to arrive. “Everyone was turned upside down. I don’t know where and how to begin to start life again.”

“整个村子都毁了——到处都是垃圾、电视机、冰箱和淤泥，”洪水退去后的周一，黄玉芳在接受采访时说道，而此时政府的救援物资仍未送达。“所有人的生活都被彻底打乱了。我不知道该从哪里、该如何重新开始生活。”

Officials say the government is investing in advanced weather forecasting and alert systems.

官员表示，政府正在投入资金建设先进的天气预报和警报系统。

Climate scientists stress that Vietnam — along with many other nations — needs to move faster to get ahead of rapid change caused by global warming.

气候科学家则强调，越南和其他许多国家一样，必须加快行动，以应对全球变暖引发的快速环境变化。

越南芽庄市，11月，被洪水淹没的车辆停在泥水中。进入民宅的洪水。

The old standards, for rain, storms or how high rivers will rise, no longer fit an era when research shows that once-in-a-century extremes can happen far more often than that.

研究表明，如今百年一遇的极端天气出现频率已远超以往，而过去针对降雨量、风暴强度和河流最高水位设定的标准已不再适用。

Geographically, Vietnam is especially vulnerable. A 2024 study identified it as a climate change “hot spot,” showing that warming temperatures adding moisture to the atmosphere and heating up the South China Sea would combine with typhoon patterns to create a vortex of risk.

从地理上看，越南极易受气候变化影响。2024年的一项研究将其列为气候变化“热点地区”，该研究指出，气温升高导致大气湿度增加、南海海水升温，再叠加台风活动规律变化，多重因素交织形成了高风险漩涡。

“We wrote that in 2024, thinking it would be something that would play out over the next few decades, not the next 12 months,” said Benjamin P. Horton, Dean of the School of Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong, and a co-author of the report.

“我们在2024年撰写这份报告时，本以为这些情况会在未来几十年内逐渐显现，而非短短12个月内，”该报告的合著者之一、香港城市大学能源与环境学院院长本杰明·P·霍顿说。

“You’d expect rain anyhow, but it’s becoming more extreme,” he added. “When you have natural variation, when it should be wetter, climate change takes it to the next level.”

“雨季下雨本是常态，但现在的降雨强度越来越极端，”他补充道，“即便是自然气候变化导致降水增多的时期，气候变化也会让情况雪上加霜。”

Mr. Trung, the rescuer with the boat, said he was still trying to process the disasters that no longer seem natural.

驾船救援的陶登公忠表示，面对这些早已超出自然范畴的灾害，他至今仍难以平复心情。

“I didn’t know what to feel,” he said. “I tried to rescue as many as I could. But there were many that I was not able to help.”

“我当时不知所措，”他说，“我拼尽全力去救人，但还是有很多人没能帮到。”

10月，会安街头的积水。

If anyone needed evidence that a critical moment is developing in Asia-Pacific diplomacy, look no further than the phone call on Monday between Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and President Trump.

若需证据证明亚太外交正迎来关键时刻，只需看看周一中国最高领导人习近平与特朗普总统的通话。

Mr. Xi reached out to Mr. Trump because a Japanese leader is taking her country’s strongest stance since World War II to assert that Taiwan’s security is also Japan’s security. While that has long been apparent to military planners, given Taiwan’s proximity to southern Japan — and also to U.S. bases there — Japan’s new strategic posture has alarmed Beijing’s leaders.

习近平主动致电特朗普，是由于日本领导人正以二战以来最强硬姿态宣称台湾有事即日本有事。尽管对军事规划者而言，鉴于台湾毗邻日本南部及美军基地，这一关联早已不言自明，但日本的新战略姿态仍令北京高层警觉。

China has been doing everything possible in recent years to isolate Taiwan, an island democracy, and persuade other countries to accept Beijing’s claim to sovereignty there. Most countries have switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, leaving Taiwan increasingly friendless. Countries like Lithuania and the Czech Republic that dare to contact Taiwan informally face swift retribution from Beijing. Chinese air and naval patrols circumnavigate Taiwan with increasing frequency.

近年来，中国竭尽全力孤立台湾这个民主岛屿，并试图说服其他国承认北京对台湾的主权主张。多数国家已将外交承认从台北转向北京，使台湾在国际上日益孤立。立陶宛、捷克等敢于非正式接触台湾的国家均迅速遭到北京的报复。中国环绕台湾的海空巡逻频率日益增加。

So few observers expected Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, to immediately take a tough stand toward China. But on Nov. 7, she told Parliament that an effort by China to blockade or invade Taiwan would be a “survival” issue for Japan, a term that has legal implications in Japan by permitting an overseas deployment of its military Self-Defense Forces.

几乎没有多少观察人士预料到日本新上任的首相高市早苗会立即对华强硬表态。但11月7日她在国会称，中国若封锁或入侵台湾，将成为日本的“存亡危机”问题——该表述在日本具有法律效力，意味着可授权自卫队海外部署。

日本首相高市早苗周二在东京官邸与特朗普总统通电话后向媒体发表讲话。

Ms. Takaichi’s comments were among the strongest ever by a Japanese leader about helping to defend Taiwan, although former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made similar remarks four times while in office.

高市早苗的言论是日本领导人迄今为止关于协防台湾的最强硬表态之一，尽管美国前总统拜登在任期间曾四次发表类似言论。

China responded with a series of economic, military and diplomatic measures against Japan. But Japanese officials are not backing down. During a trip on Sunday to a military base on the southern Japanese island of Yonaguni, located about 70 miles east of Taiwan, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi confirmed his country’s intention to proceed with plans to deploy medium-range antiaircraft missiles at the outpost.

中国对日本采取了一系列经济、军事和外交措施作为回应。但日本官员并没有退让。日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎周日视察了与那国岛军事基地，证实了日本打算在该前沿阵地部署中程防空导弹的计划。与那国岛位于日本南部，距离台湾以东约110公里。

The call on Monday by Mr. Xi to President Trump “comes amidst arguably the most serious crisis in China-Japan relations in over a decade — China is exerting an enormous amount of pressure on Japan, likely out of a belief that Tokyo will blink,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

习近平周一与特朗普的通话“正值中日关系遭遇十余年来最严峻危机——中国正对日本施加巨大压力，可能是认为东京会服软”，美国外交关系委员会亚洲研究学者戴维·萨克斯指出。

President Trump, apparently relishing his role being sought after by Japan and China, had a phone call with Ms. Takaichi hours after his conversation with Mr. Xi. Mr. Trump avoided tipping his hand publicly on whether he would yield to Chinese pressure to shift decades of American support for Taiwan, saying only that he planned to travel to Beijing next April.

特朗普总统显然乐于扮演被中日两国争相拉拢的角色，在与习近平通话数小时后又与高市早苗通话，特朗普没有公开透露他是否会屈服于中国的压力，改变美国数十年来对台湾的支持，只是说他计划明年4月访问北京。

日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎周日视察了位于日本南部石垣岛的军事基地。同日，他还访问了位于日本另一座岛屿与那国岛的军事基地。

Mr. Xi and his foreign minister, Wang Yi, have swiftly ratcheted up the diplomatic stakes by presenting China as the guarantor of the post-World War II global order — and by portraying Taiwan and its defenders as challengers to that order.

习近平主席及其外交部长王毅迅速加码外交博弈，将中国塑造成二战后全球秩序的守护者，并将台湾及其捍卫者描绘成该秩序的挑战者。

“It is shocking that Japan’s current leaders have publicly sent the wrong signal of attempting military intervention in the Taiwan issue, said things they shouldn’t have said, and crossed a red line that should not have been touched,” Mr. Wang said on Sunday.

“令人震惊的是，日本现职领导人竟然公开发出试图武力介入台湾问题的错误信号，讲了不该讲的话，越了不应碰的红线，”王毅周日表示。

According to a statement from Beijing, Mr. Xi emphasized to Mr. Trump that “China and the U.S. fought side by side against fascism and militarism; now, they should work together to safeguard the achievements of the victory in World War II.”

根据北京的声明，习近平向特朗普强调：“中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主义，当前更应该共同维护好二战胜利成果。”

John Delury, an historian of Northeast Asia who is a senior fellow in Seoul for the Asia Society, said that Mr. Xi “is trying to get out a big narrative of Beijing as the guardian of the postwar international order.”

东北亚历史学家、亚洲协会驻首尔高级研究员鲁乐汉(John Delury)说，习近平“正着力塑造北京作为战后国际秩序守护者的宏大叙事”。

After months of feuding with the United States over President Trump’s tariffs, China and Japan now both want American support for their respective positions on Taiwan. That has strengthened the bargaining position of President Trump, who has sought Beijing’s help this autumn to buy American soybeans, supply rare earth metals and limit China’s financial and industrial support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

​在因特朗普总统的关税政策与美国争执数月后，中日两国如今都希望美国支持其各自在台湾问题上的立场。这加强了特朗普总统的谈判筹码。他在今秋一直寻求北京的帮助，购买美国大豆，供应稀土金属，并限制中国对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中提供金融和工业支持。

Beijing has halted seafood imports from Japan, canceled concerts in China by Japanese performers, halted many flights to Japan and discouraged Chinese tourists and students from visiting Japan. Three Chinese warships sailed past a Japanese island four days after Ms. Takaichi’s remark, and four Chinese armed coast guard ships have since passed close to Japanese-administered islands north of Taiwan. And China has asked the United Nations to distribute a strong criticism of Ms. Takaichi’s remark to member countries.

北京已经停止从日本进口海产品，取消了日本艺人在中国的演出，暂停了许多飞往日本的航班，并劝阻中国游客和学生前往日本。在高市早苗发表上述言论四天后，三艘中国军舰驶过一个日本岛屿，四艘中国武装海警船此后驶过了台湾以北日本管辖岛屿附近。中国还要求联合国向成员国分发一份强烈谴责高市早苗言论的文件。

上周，北京的一家日本超市。北京已暂停从日本进口海产品。

Japan has pushed back. It has submitted a written riposte to the U.N. and insisted that its planned missile deployment — which Japanese officials say is for the country’s own defense rather than projecting force — will proceed on Yonaguni Island, east of Taiwan. Public sentiment in Japan seems to support the country’s leader.

日本进行了反击。日本向联合国提交了一份书面回应，并坚持计划在台湾以东的与那国岛进行的导弹部署。日本官员说，导弹部署是为了日本自身的防御，而不是投射军力。日本的国内民意似乎也支持该国领导人。

“The more pressure China exerts on Japan, the more Japan feels compelled to prepare, recognizing the growing danger — Prime Minister Takaichi’s approval ratings are rising, and the Japanese people’s sense of crisis is also increasing,” said Ichiro Korogi, a professor of international studies at Kanda University of International Studies.

“中国对日本施加的压力越大，日本就越觉得有必要做好准备，意识到日益增长的危险——高市早苗首相的支持率正在上升，日本民众的危机意识也在增强，”神田外语大学的国际研究教授兴梠一郎说。

The tensions come as China has taken a long series of measures to strengthen its strategic position not just against Taiwan but also toward Japan and South Korea. China has built the world’s largest navy, part of a rapid military buildup that also includes intercontinental ballistic missiles and advanced airborne and underwater drones. China sent two aircraft carrier task forces last summer through part of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

在紧张局势出现之际，中国采取了一系列措施来加强其战略地位，不仅针对台湾，还针对日本和韩国。中国已经建立了世界上规模最大的海军，这是其快速军事建设的一部分，其中还包括洲际弹道导弹和先进的机载和水下无人机。去年夏天，中国派出了两艘航空母舰编队，穿越日本部分专属经济区。

Mr. Xi welcomed the leaders of Russia and North Korea to a military parade in Tiananmen Square in early September, then sent his premier, Li Qiang, to a military parade six weeks later in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. Both events showcased that three countries with nuclear weapons — China, Russia and North Korea — were united as they face Japan, South Korea and Taiwan — none of which, at the insistence of the United States, has developed its own nuclear weapons.

习近平主席于9月初在天安门广场阅兵式上欢迎俄罗斯和朝鲜领导人，六周后又派遣总理李强出席朝鲜首都平壤的阅兵仪式。这两场活动彰显出，面对在美国的坚持下均未发展核武器的日本、韩国和台湾，拥有核武器的中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜三国正在联合起来。

习近平（中）、金正恩（右）与普京共同出席9月在北京天安门广场举行的阅兵式。

Chinese naval vessels have been operating with increasing frequency around the circumference of Taiwan in the past several years. The Japanese antiaircraft missiles have less than half the range to reach Taiwan, much less mainland China. But they could be a concern for China in providing air cover for activities east of Taiwan.

在过去的几年里，中国海军舰艇越来越频繁地在台湾周边活动。日本的防空导弹射程不足抵达台湾的一半，更不用说中国大陆。但在为台湾以东的活动提供空中掩护时，它们可能会成为中国的一个担忧。

On Monday, Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, criticized Japan’s missile-deployment plans.

周一，中国外交部发言人毛宁批评了日本的导弹部署计划。

“Japan’s deployment of offensive weapons in southwest islands close to China’s Taiwan region is a deliberate move that breeds regional tensions and stokes military confrontation,” she said. “Given Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, this move is extremely dangerous and should put Japan’s neighboring countries and the international community on high alert.”

她说：“日方在与中国台湾邻近的西南诸岛部署进攻性武器，刻意制造地区紧张、挑动军事对立。联系到日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，这一动向极其危险，需引起周边国家及国际社会高度警惕。”

Her comments, along with Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Wang’s evocation of Japan’s World War II sins, seemed to be another open effort to persuade Mr. Trump to start looking at security questions from China’s perspective.

她的言论，加上习近平主席和王毅外长对日本二战罪行的重提，似乎是又一次公开努力，试图说服特朗普开始从中国的角度看待安全问题。

In fact, China’s leaders are now presenting themselves so strongly as guardians of the existing international order that they sometimes sound like former President Biden, Mr. Delury, the Northeast Asia scholar, said. And in the phone call on Monday, he added, Mr. Xi was “using Biden’s language in appealing to Trump for some level of support.”

东北亚问题学者鲁乐汉说，事实上，中国领导人现在以现有国际秩序捍卫者的姿态表现得如此强烈，以至于有时听起来很像前总统拜登。他还说，在周一的通话中，习近平“运用拜登式的措辞向特朗普寻求某种程度的支持”。

With sushi lunches and chocolate bars adorned with the face of Japan’s new prime minister, Taiwanese businesses, officials and citizens are rallying to support their neighbor as it faces pressure from Beijing over remarks that Tokyo could intervene militarily to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack.

随着寿司午餐和印有日本新首相头像的巧克力引发热议，台湾企业、官员和民众正在团结起来支持自己的邻居。东京方面此前表示，日本可能会在中国对台发动攻击时进行军事干预，引发了北京强烈反弹。

After Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan said this month that an attempt by Beijing to take over Taiwan could trigger a military response from Japan, Beijing has sent military ships to patrol disputed waters near Japan, advised its citizens not to travel to the country, and signaled that it would restrict imports of Japanese seafood.

日本首相高市早苗本月表示，若北京企图夺取台湾可能会引发日本的军事回应。此后，北京派出军舰在靠近日本的争议水域巡逻，发布赴日旅游警告，并释放将限制日本海产品进口的信号。

This is painfully familiar territory for Taiwan, which has faced increasing economic and military threats as China has sought to isolate it from international support. And Japan has seen a resumption of public support for Taiwan in the face of Beijing’s insistence that the island democracy is part of China’s territory.

这对台湾而言是痛苦的熟悉境遇——随着中国试图切断其国际支持，台湾面临日益加剧的经济与军事威胁。而面对北京坚持将这个民主岛屿视为中国领土的立场，日本民众对台湾的支持也在重新高涨。

When Beijing banned imports of Taiwanese pineapples in 2021, Japan ordered a record 19,000 tons of the fruit that year, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — Ms. Takaichi’s political mentor — posed with a Taiwanese pineapple.

当北京在2021年禁止进口台湾凤梨时，日本在那一年订购了创纪录的1.9万吨凤梨，日本首相安倍晋三——高市早苗的政治导师——还与台湾凤梨合影。

Now Taiwan is eager to return the favor. The government in Taipei has lifted all restrictions on imports of Japanese food, including seafood, that had been in place since the Fukushima nuclear meltdown in 2011. A day before that announcement on Friday, Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, posted a video of himself eating a plate of sushi that included scallops from the Japanese island of Hokkaido and yellowtail from Kagoshima in southern Kyushu.

现在台湾热切地投桃报李。台北政府已经取消了自2011年福岛核事故以来对日本食品进口的所有限制，包括海产品。就在周五宣布解禁的前一天，台湾总统赖清德发布了一段自己品尝寿司的视频——其中包含日本北海道产的扇贝和九州南部鹿儿岛产的

Stunned by frequent shortages of essential materials from China, automakers in the United States and Europe are quietly trying to reduce or eliminate the need for materials that have become entangled in superpower rivalries.

面对中国关键物料频繁短缺的冲击，欧美车企正悄然采取行动，试图减少甚至摆脱对那些卷入大国博弈的物料的依赖。

The companies are exploring technologies and exotic materials that could replace magnets made with rare-earth metals that are used in dozens of parts in cars and trucks of all kinds. They include components like windshield wiper motors and the mechanisms that allow seats to be adjusted.

这些企业正在探索各类新技术与特殊材料，以期替代由稀土金属制成的磁体，这类磁体广泛应用于各类汽车的数十种零部件中，涵盖挡风玻璃雨刷电机、座椅调节机构等等。

Magnets made with the rare-earth elements neodymium, dysprosium and terbium are especially important for the motors that move electric vehicles and hybrids, which are becoming more popular.

由钕、镝、铽等稀土元素制成的磁体对日益普及的电动汽车和混合动力汽车的驱动电机至关重要。

China dominates mining and processing of most rare earths and has used its near monopoly as a diplomatic weapon. This year, it imposed controls on exports of some of those materials in apparent retaliation for President Trump’s stiff tariffs on Chinese goods.

中国在绝大多数稀土的开采与加工领域占据主导地位，并将其近乎垄断的优势当作外交武器。今年，中国对部分稀土材料实施出口管制，此举显然是对特朗普总统对中国商品征收高额关税的报复。

The recent instability in rare-earth supplies is a much bigger threat to automakers than in the past. It has given new urgency to the search for motors that don’t need rare earths or for materials that would replace them.

相较以往，近期稀土供应的不稳定性对车企构成了更大威胁，这也让寻找无稀土电机或稀土替代材料的工作变得愈发紧迫。

BMW’s electric vehicles already use motors that operate without rare earths. Researchers at Northeastern University and other institutions are working to synthesize materials that have promising magnetic properties and are found only in meteorites.

宝马的电动汽车已率先采用不含稀土的驱动电机。东北大学等机构的研究人员正致力于合成具有优异磁性能的材料，这类材料目前只能在陨石中找到。

Start-ups have begun developing new kinds of motors and other technologies. And the Department of Energy is encouraging that work, despite the Trump administration’s rollback of other forms of support for electric vehicles.

初创企业已着手研发新型电机及其他替代技术。尽管特朗普政府削减了对电动汽车领域的其他支持，但美国能源部仍在积极推动这类研发工作。

哈纳夫普里特·吉尔是加州初创企业Conifer的工程师，该公司生产无稀土电机。

Many of these efforts won’t bear fruit for years. And substitute technologies like those used by BMW can be more expensive or have other drawbacks. For the time being, the industry remains extremely vulnerable to shortages that could bring assembly lines to a halt.

不过，多数研发举措要在数年后才能取得成效。类似宝马采用的替代技术可能成本更高或存在其他缺陷。目前来看，汽车行业仍极易受供应短缺影响，一旦稀土断供，汽车生产线可能随时陷入停滞。

“This isn’t a challenge you can overcome in a year,” said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“这绝非一年内就能攻克的难题，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心关键矿产安全项目主任格雷塞林·巴斯卡兰表示。

This month, Beijing suspended some of its rare-earth export controls as part of an agreement with the Trump administration. But controls remain a threat as tensions between the United States and China continue.

本月，作为与特朗普政府达成协议的一部分，中国暂停了部分稀土出口管制措施。但随着美中紧张局势持续，出口管制的威胁始终存在。

“There is now sort of a détente,” said Tom Moerenhout, who leads the Critical Materials Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “But the question is not will there be a next event where rare earths are being weaponized, but rather when.”

“当前局势可说是一种缓和状态，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心关键材料项目负责人汤姆·莫伦豪特指出。“但问题不在于稀土是否会再次被当作武器使用，而在于下一次发生在何时。”

The auto industry has reckoned with rare-earth shortages before. Beginning in 2010, China choked off supplies, leading to a dispute with the Obama administration.

汽车行业并非首次应对稀土短缺危机。早在2010年，中国就曾切断稀土供应，引发了与奥巴马政府的争端。

The coronavirus pandemic, which caused severe shortages of semiconductors and other components, reinforced the dangers of depending too much on a few suppliers or vendors from one country. As a result, many automakers began looking for alternatives.

新冠疫情导致半导体及其他零部件严重短缺，这一事件进一步凸显了过度依赖少数供应商或单一供应国的巨大风险。正因如此，众多车企开始着手寻找替代方案。

Carmakers can use two strategies to keep their assembly lines running. They can find rare earths outside China, or they can switch to components that don’t require those metals.

车企可采用两种策略维持生产线运转：一是从中国以外的地区获取稀土资源；二是改用不依赖稀土金属的零部件。

General Motors is pursuing the first strategy with MP Materials, an American company that is mining rare earths in California. MP is also building a facility in Texas to refine the materials and use them to make magnets. Under an agreement announced in 2021, G.M. has promised to buy most of the output of the Texas factory for use in Cadillacs and Chevrolets. MP also has agreements with Apple and the Defense Department.

通用汽车选择了第一种策略，与美国MP材料公司展开合作，后者正在加利福尼亚州开采稀土，同时还在得克萨斯州建设一座加工厂，用于稀土提纯及磁体制造。根据2021年公布的协议，通用汽车承诺将采购这座得州工厂的大部分出品，用于凯迪拉克和雪佛兰车型的生产。此外，MP材料公司还与苹果公司及美国国防部签订了合作协议。

Such agreements provide companies like MP guaranteed revenue, something that wasn’t available to rare-earth companies and processors that went bankrupt after previous crises when prices fell so much that they couldn’t compete with Chinese suppliers. MP acquired its site in California from one such bankrupt company.

这类协议为MP材料公司等企业提供了稳定的收入保障。这正是此前稀土危机中破产企业所缺少的，当时价格暴跌导致它们无法与中方供应商竞争。MP材料公司位于加利福尼亚州的稀土矿场，正是从这样一家破产企业手中收购而来。

But there is also a risk to automakers like G.M. They may wind up paying more than other manufacturers if shortages ease and prices fall again.

但对通用汽车这类车企而言，这种合作也存在风险：一旦稀土供应短缺缓解、价格回落，它们最终可能要比其他制造商支付更高的成本。

G.M. is also searching for components that don’t need rare earths. “There’s nothing like not having to use rare-earth things, whether it’s magnets or batteries or whatever,” Mark Reuss, the president of G.M., said at a company event in New York recently. “How do we engineer out that dependency?”

与此同时，通用汽车也在寻找无需稀土的零部件。“如果能完全不用稀土相关产品，无论是磁体、电池还是其他部件，那再好不过了，”通用汽车总裁马克·罗伊斯近期在纽约的一场企业活动中表示。“我们该如何通过技术革新摆脱这种依赖？”

A G.M. spokesman declined to provide specifics.

通用汽车发言人拒绝披露具体的研发细节。

Back in the 1980s, a G.M. unit developed magnets made from neodymium, iron and boron, which are now widely used in electric vehicle motors. But G.M. sold the technology to Chinese companies.

回溯至20世纪80年代，通用汽车旗下子公司曾研发出钕铁硼磁体，如今这种磁体已广泛应用于电动汽车电机。但遗憾的是，通用汽车后来将这项技术出售给了中国企业。

BMW is using motors without neodymium or other rare earths in models like the iX sport utility vehicle. An electric current generates the magnetic field inside the motor that converts electrons to motion.

宝马则在iX运动型多用途汽车等车型中采用了不含钕及其他稀土元素的电机。该电机通过电流产生磁场，进而将电能转化为动能。

A spike in the price of neodymium around 2011 prompted BMW to begin developing the technology. The luxury carmaker says it has largely solved the drawbacks of these motors, which tend to be heavier, bulkier and less energy efficient than those with rare earths. The company makes the motors in factories near its headquarters in Munich and in Austria.

2011年前后钕价飙升，促使宝马启动了这项无稀土电机技术的研发。这家豪华车企表示已基本解决了此类电机的固有缺陷——相较于含稀土的电机，它们原本存在更重、更臃肿、能效更低的问题。目前，宝马在慕尼黑总部附近的工厂及奥地利的工厂生产这类电机。

The motors are more efficient than those that use rare earths at the speeds required for everyday driving, said Stefan Ortmann, a BMW engineer. There are other advantages, he said. The magnetic field in BMW’s motors can be dialed up or down, and the motors are easier to keep cool.

宝马工程师斯特凡·奥特曼称，在日常行驶所需的车速范围内，这种无稀土电机的能效甚至优于稀土电机。他还提到，该电机还有其他优势：磁场强度可灵活调节，且散热性能更出色。

“We think it’s the sweet spot for us,” Mr. Ortmann said.

“我们认为这正是适合我们的最优方案，”奥特曼表示。

A new version of the motor is even more efficient than earlier machines and will be installed in the iX3 S.U.V. that BMW will sell in the United States next summer. The company says that model will be able to travel 400 miles between charges.

该电机的升级版本能效进一步提升，将于明年夏天搭载在美国上市的宝马iX3运动型多用途汽车上。宝马称，这款车型单次充电续航里程可达约640公里。

The Trump administration is offering grants of up to $3 million to help researchers develop alternatives to rare earths. To qualify, applicants must strive to create magnets twice as powerful as the best rare-earth magnets, a goal that some experts say is unrealistic.

特朗普政府提供了最高300万美元的奖金，用于资助研究人员研发稀土替代材料。申请者须致力于制造出强度达顶级稀土磁体两倍的磁体，但部分专家认为该目标不切实际。

In a document outlining the program, the Department of Energy expressed confidence that the target could be met using artificial intelligence.

美国能源部在一份项目说明文件中表示，有信心借助人工智能技术实现这一目标。

“Recent technological advances have the potential to dramatically accelerate new magnet discovery,” the department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, said in August. The department did not respond to a request for comment.

“近期的技术突破有望大幅加速新型磁体的研发进程，”美国能源部先进研究计划局于8月表示。该部未回应置评请求。

The tea farmer in Japan, the shoe company in Montreal, the chocolatier in Mexico: Small businesses around the world have been roiled by President Trump’s constantly changing trade policies.

从日本的茶农、蒙特利尔的鞋业公司到墨西哥的巧克力生产商，全世界的小企业都被特朗普总统不断变化的贸易政策搅得不得安宁。

The trade rules have upended strategies, prices, logistics and investments as businesses try to both inform and hold on to their U.S. customers. Some small companies, which operate on razor-thin margins, are questioning or pausing their U.S. expansion plans. We spoke to six businesses, from Sweden to Brazil, about how they’re communicating with customers and managing the uncertainty. Here’s what they said.

这些贸易规则打乱了企业的策略、价格、物流和投资计划，各家公司努力向美国客户解释情况，想方设法留住他们。一些利润微薄的小企业正在重新评估或暂缓在美国市场的扩张计划。我们采访了从瑞典到巴西的六家企业，探寻他们是如何与客户沟通并应对当前不确定性的。以下是他们的说法。

For a Swedish designer, sales surged and then slumped.

一位瑞典服装设计师经历了销量的大起大落。

Asket, a Stockholm-based clothing company, emailed its U.S. customers in mid-August warning of possible price increases and the expiring de minimis exemption, which allowed the duty-free entry of merchandise valued at under $800. “It’s not super sexy communication,” said August Bard Bringeus, Asket’s co-founder and chief executive. But it prompted a spending spree, with U.S. sales more than doubling over 10 days.

总部位于斯德哥尔摩的服装公司Asket在8月中旬向美国客户发去电子邮件，提醒可能涨价，以及小额包裹免税政策（价值低于800美元的商品免关税入境）即将到期。公司联合创始人兼首席执行官奥古斯特·巴德·布林格乌斯坦言，“沟通这种事情肯定谈不上愉快。”但这封邮件引发了一波订购潮，美国市场的销售额在10天内翻了一倍不止。

在小额包裹免税政策取消前夕，Asket与Maguire两家企业向客户发出了通知函。

The company has kept prices steady, taking a hit on its margins. “It will probably need to change,” Mr. Bard Bringeus said, adding: “We’ll probably need to increase prices in the future to regain what we’re losing now.” European Union exports to the United States are now subject to a 15 percent tariff.

公司牺牲了部分利润空间，一直保持价格不变。“这种情况恐怕需要改变，”巴德·布林格乌斯说。他还表示：“我们未来可能需要提价，以弥补现在的损失。”目前欧盟对美国的出口需缴纳15%的关税。

The uncertainty has been frustrating. “It’s not like all European brands are going to start manufacturing in the U.S. all of a sudden; it’s impossible,” said Mr. Bard Bringeus.

这种不确定性令人感到沮丧。“欧洲品牌不可能一下子全部转到美国生产，这根本不现实，”巴德·布林格乌斯说。

The United States is one of the Swedish retailer’s biggest markets, but U.S. sales fell in the third quarter, when de minimis ended, and are now down about 20 percent from a year ago.

美国是这家瑞典零售商最大的市场之一，但随着小额包裹免税政策的终止，其第三季度对美销售额出现下滑，目前较去年同期下降约20%。

“I think there’s just a general aversion, probably, toward buying from European brands because you have this notion that you’re going to be hit by tariffs or that your order is going to be charged with customs and duties,” Mr. Bard Bringeus said.

“我认为大家对购买欧洲品牌普遍产生了一种抵触心理，因为你会有这样的印象：你会被征收关税，或者你的订单会被收取各种进口税费，”巴德·布林格乌斯说。

A Canadian shoe seller hits ‘pause’ on U.S. expansion.

一家加拿大鞋企暂停了在美国市场的扩张。

Maguire鞋业的联合创始人米里亚姆·贝尔齐勒-马圭尔在自家的蒙特利尔门店。

Just before the end of de minimis, Maguire, a Montreal-based shoe company, told its American customers that it would ship from its U.S. stores, and encouraged them to order before the loophole closed. A surge in U.S. orders followed.

就在小额包裹免税政策结束前夕，来自蒙特利尔的制鞋公司Maguire告诉美国客户，他们将从美国门店发货，并鼓励他们在政策窗口关闭前下单。美国市场随即出现了订单的激增。

About a week later, Maguire sent another email announcing a price increase. Myriam Belzile-Maguire, its president and co-founder, said that she raised prices between $10 and $30 in both the United States and Canada.

大约一周后，Maguire再度致函客户宣布调价方案。公司总裁兼联合创始人米里亚姆·贝尔齐勒-马圭尔表示，她在美国和加拿大市场都将价格提高了10至30美元不等。

The company has two stores in the United States, its second-largest market, but is waiting before opening more. “I want to wait for a bit more stability,” Ms. Belzile-Maguire said.

尽管美国是它第二大市场且已设有两家门店，但公司决定暂缓新增门店计划。“我想等市场稳定一点再作打算，”贝尔齐勒-马圭尔表示。

A Brazilian coffee grower waits for U.S. customers to return.

一位巴西咖啡种植者正在等待美国客户回归。

After a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian coffee choked off U.S. orders, Ana Cecilia Velloso, whose family owns São Luiz Estate Coffee in Carmo do Paranaíba, Brazil, had planned to skip a San Diego coffee expo to market her beans. Now that those tariffs have been revoked, she’s considering going, but she’s wary. “I need to wait for the C market to settle down,” she wrote in a text, adding: “I’ll wait for my customers to come to me.”

50%的关税壁垒扼杀了美国订单后，在巴西的卡莫迪帕拉纳伊巴，圣路易斯咖啡庄园的主人安娜·塞西莉亚·维洛索一度打算放弃参加圣迭戈咖啡展，推广自家咖啡豆的机会。如今随着关税撤销，她虽重新考虑参展，但仍持审慎态度。“我需要等待C市场（阿拉比卡咖啡期货市场——译注）企稳，”她在短信中写道，另外“我会静候客户的主动回归”。

Before the tariffs were imposed, Mariana Faerron Gutierrez, the founder and chief executive of Tico Coffee Roasters in Campbell, Calif., had planned to import Ms. Velloso’s coffee. “If the tariffs wouldn’t have happened at that level,” she said, “her coffee would be here in my warehouse right now.”

在关税措施实施前，加州坎贝尔市Tico咖啡烘焙工坊创始人兼首席执行官玛丽安娜·法伦·古铁雷斯原计划进口维洛索的咖啡豆。她坦言，“若非当时高额关税的阻碍，这批咖啡现在应该已经存放在我的仓库里了。”

Now, she’s looking to get Brazilian coffee as soon as she can. And while she’s optimistic that tariffs won’t change again this year, she’s cautious. “What is the contingency plan if something changes?” she said. “It might be tariffs again, or it might be something else.”

现在，她正积极寻求尽快采购巴西咖啡豆。尽管对今年关税政策保持稳定抱持乐观，她仍不敢掉以轻心。她说，“如果政策再生变数——可能又是关税，也可能是其他状况，我们的应急预案是什么？”

A Japanese matcha farmer opens a U.S. outpost.

一位日本抹茶农户在美国设点。

Daiki Tanaka, who grows and sells matcha in Japan, meets many of his U.S. customers during tours and tastings at his 10-acre farm, d:matcha, near Kyoto.

在京都近郊约60亩的d:matcha农场里，种植、销售抹茶的田中大贵常年通过参观与品鉴活动接待许多美国客户。

But the end of the de minimis exemption this year meant many of his shipments to the United States now carried a 15 percent tariff. He responded by creating a U.S. subsidiary to import his tea and distribute it, absorbing the tariff for American customers who make up his biggest direct-to-consumer market.

然而随着今年小额包裹免税政策的结束，他发往美国的多数包裹现在都需要缴纳15%的关税。为此他在美国设立了一家子公司，负责茶叶的进口与分销，通过自行吸收关税来维系这个最重要的直营市场。

“The connection is important, so that’s why the tariff thing is really — it makes it a bit more complicated,” Mr. Tanaka said.

“客户纽带至关重要，这就是为什么关税这件事……它会让情况变得有点复杂，”田中说道。

Lauren Purvis, founder of Mizuba Tea Company in Portland, Ore., imported over 20 tons of matcha from small farms and producers in Japan last year. This year, tariffs have cost her over $110,000, Ms. Purvis said, and the trade policy has led to big delivery delays: She had over $120,000 worth of Japanese matcha, shipped in August and September, stuck in Kentucky. She’s still waiting for about half that inventory.

位于俄勒冈州波特兰的Mizuba Tea Company创始人劳伦·珀维斯去年从日本的小农场和生产者那里进口了超过20吨抹茶。她表示，今年的关税成本已超11万美元，而且新的贸易政策导致了严重的交付延误：她有价值超过12万美元的日本抹茶（在8月和9月发货）卡在了肯塔基州。现在，还有约半数没收到。

The Trump administration in recent weeks lifted some tariffs, including those on green tea. But Ms. Purvis wishes they had been more carefully planned from the outset. “All it did was increase costs,” she said. “I think it is hard to shake the feeling of, what was the point.”

尽管特朗普政府近周已取消包括绿茶在内的部分关税，但珀维斯希望政策制定者在一开始就能考量得更为周全。“这些关税除了推高成本别无他用，”她说。“实在难以摆脱这样一种感觉：这到底有什么意义呢。”

A Mexican chocolatier sends customers to Canada.

一位墨西哥巧克力商转战加拿大市场。

Víctor Feliu, who owns Feliu Chocolate in Guadalajara, Mexico, was so confused by the ever-changing rules for trade between Mexico and the United States that he has paused U.S. shipments.

墨西哥瓜达拉哈拉市Feliu巧克力创始人维克多·费利乌坦言，美墨间变幻莫测的贸易规则令他感到困惑，不得不暂停对美发货。

“I’m willing to pay tariffs, and I’m willing to comply with the paperwork,” he said. “But it’s very difficult if rules are changing every few months.”

他表示，“我并非不愿支付关税，也愿意处理相关手续，但如果规则每隔几个月就变一次，就非常困难了。”

While his chocolate bars are not subject to tariffs, he paused U.S. shipments in early September after over a dozen packages were returned because of complications posed by the new rules, which covered things like labeling, more paperwork and registration, he said. It took weeks for Mr. Feliu to track down the new requirements for small shipments. “We’re a small business; no one tells us,” he said.

尽管他公司生产的巧克力棒不需要缴关税，但他说，他在9月初暂停了对美国的发货，因为有十几个包裹因合规问题遭退回，这些新规涉及标签、更多手续以及注册等事项。费利乌花费数周才厘清小额包裹的新规。他说：“我们是小企业，没有人会告诉我们这些事。”

He has suggested that U.S. customers buy his chocolate through a Canadian retailer, and his plans to sell through U.S. shops are on hold.

他建议美国顾客通过一家加拿大的零售商购买他的巧克力，原定进军美国实体店的计划也随之搁置。

For a Danish retailer, mistakes mean money.

对于一家丹麦零售商来说，出错就意味着钱的损失。

Tariff-related errors are proving costly for Cecilie Moosgaard, a co-founder of the Danish accessories retailer Lié Studio.

丹麦配饰零售商Lié Studio的联合创始人塞西莉·莫斯加德发现，与关税相关的错误正造成巨大损失。

“We’re seeing a lot of these mistakes, meaning that our import duties are much higher than they need to be,” Ms. Moosgaard said. On several occasions, she said, Lié Studio handbags shipped to the United States were misclassified as originating from China — and subject to tariffs as high as 25 percent — rather than Portugal, where they were made, which carries a lower tax. The mistakes mean unexpected costs and time spent trying to get a refund — which she’s still waiting for.

“我们犯了很多归类错误，导致进口关税远超应缴额度，”莫斯加德指出。她透露，公司发往美国的手袋被误分类为原产中国——因而面临25%的高额关税——而实际产地葡萄牙的税率要低得多。这些失误不仅带来意外成本，更耗费大量时间申请退税——至今仍在等待退款。

The company, which sells jewelry and handbags online and at U.S. retailers, increased prices for U.S. customers by around 20 percent in mid-August.

这家通过线上渠道及美国零售商销售珠宝手袋的企业，已于8月中旬将对美售价提高了约20%。

Ukrainian and European officials sprang into a frenzy over the weekend to alter President Trump’s new 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, developed with input from Russia and heavily weighted toward the Kremlin.

上周末，乌克兰和欧洲官员紧急行动，试图修改特朗普总统新推出的28点乌克兰和平计划。该计划在制定过程中听取了俄罗斯的意见，明显偏向克里姆林宫。

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, for his part, sat back and watched.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京则选择静观事态发展。

For the Russian leader, a Kremlin-friendly peace plan that enshrines Ukraine’s perpetual subordination and vulnerability would be a win. So would a failed process that leads Mr. Trump to pull remaining support for Ukraine and further antagonize European allies.

对这位俄罗斯领导人而言，一份偏向克里姆林宫、确保乌克兰处于永久从属与脆弱地位的和平计划是一种胜利。即便和平进程失败，导致特朗普停止剩余的对乌援助，进一步疏远欧洲盟友，对他来说也同样有利。

U.S. and Ukrainian officials reported progress on talks aimed at amending the proposal, saying they had made some unspecified changes. By late Monday, the officials had returned home.

美国和乌克兰官员称，针对该修改计划的谈判已取得进展，表示已作出部分未具体说明的调整。截至周一晚间，参与谈判的官员已回国。

It is unclear if Mr. Putin will accept those changes. On Friday, in a video conference with security officials, the Russian leader said the 28-point plan could be the foundation for a peace settlement, pending “substantive and meaningful discussion,” or Russia could keep pressing its case in Ukraine by force.

目前尚不清楚普京是否会接受这些修改。上周五，这位俄罗斯领导人在与安全官员举行的视频会议上表示，这份28点计划可作为和平解决方案的基础，但需经过“实质性且有意义的磋商”；否则，俄罗斯将继续通过武力在乌克兰推进自身主张。

More Ukrainian cities will fall to Russian troops, “perhaps not as quickly as we would prefer, but inevitably,” Mr. Putin warned. He said such a path “also suits us,” because Moscow was content to pursue its interests “through armed confrontation.”

普京警告称，更多乌克兰城市将被俄军攻陷，“或许不会如我们所愿那般迅速，但这是必然趋势”。他表示，这种方式“我们同样可以接受”，因为俄罗斯愿意通过“武装对抗”来维护自身利益。

上周在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔市，一名居民与母亲站在遭俄军空袭损毁的建筑外。

His message: His authoritarian system can outlast the resources and will of its adversaries.

他的言外之意是：他的威权体制让他拥有比对手更耐久的资源和意志。

“The West has entered a pain contest with Vladimir Putin. Who can withstand more pain?” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “In this competition, Putin can be tough as nails, and his system can be tough as nails.”

“西方正在与弗拉基米尔·普京进行忍耐力的比拼，看谁能承受更多痛苦，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫表示。“在这场较量中，普京本人及他所建立的体制都将坚不可摧。”

The Ukrainians are just as tough, Mr. Gabuev noted, but “they are under-resourced,” suffering from a dearth of military personnel, weaponry and money, as well as a lack of unified Western support.

加布耶夫指出，乌克兰方面同样意志坚定，但是“他们资源匮乏”，面临军事人员、武器装备和资金短缺的困境，同时还缺乏西方世界的统一支持。

Mr. Putin’s ability to continue waging the war isn’t limitless. His economy is facing trouble, particularly after a significant decline in oil revenue, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s recent sanctions. Moscow is raising taxes to cover the war effort and has pruned next year’s military budget. Russia’s forces are on the front foot, but the advance has been slow and costly in lives and matériel.

普京持续发动战争的能力并非不受限制。俄罗斯经济正陷入困境，尤其是石油收入大幅下滑，而特朗普政府近期实施的制裁更是加剧了这一局面。莫斯科正通过增税来支撑战争开支，并削减了明年的军事预算。尽管俄军目前占据攻势，但推进缓慢，且付出了惨重的人员伤亡和物资损耗代价。

Still, Mr. Putin believes, compared to Ukraine, that time is on his side. And while he appears satisfied to let the peace process either succeed or fail, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is under immense pressure on multiple fronts, as Mr. Trump pushes him to accept a settlement plan by Thursday.

即便如此，普京仍认为，相较于乌克兰，时间在自己这边。他似乎对和平进程的成败都持无所谓的态度，但乌克兰总统泽连斯基却身陷多方面的巨大压力——特朗普正逼迫他最晚周四前接受这份和平方案。

莫斯科某加油站，1月。美国近期实施的制裁针对俄罗斯两大石油公司——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司。

The battlefield situation has been deteriorating for Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky has been weakened domestically by a ballooning corruption scandal. And Ukraine is running low on cash to sustain its defenses and economy, with its European allies vacillating about using billions of dollars in frozen Russian money to fund Kyiv.

乌克兰方面的战局持续恶化。泽连斯基因不断发酵的腐败丑闻在国内支持度下滑，且乌克兰维持国防与经济运转的资金即将耗尽。对于是否动用冻结的数十亿美元俄罗斯资产援助基辅，欧洲梦游始终犹豫不决。

Mr. Trump has also begun aiming invective again at Ukraine, accusing Mr. Zelensky this past weekend of expressing “ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS.”

特朗普近期也再度对乌克兰口出恶言，上周末指责泽连斯基“对我们的付出毫无感激之情”。

Those efforts produced a 28-point plan that underscored Mr. Putin’s unwillingness to bend on the war, and that Ukraine and its European allies are now pushing to amend.

此前双方磋商形成的28点计划凸显了普京在战争问题上寸步不让的立场，如今乌克兰及其欧洲盟友正全力推动对计划的修改。

Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin foreign policy aide, said on Monday that many “but not all” of the plan’s positions were acceptable to Russia, but required detailed discussion. He said that European counterproposals that have been circulating were not constructive.

克里姆林宫外交政策顾问尤里·乌沙科夫周一表示，俄罗斯认可该计划中的“多项而非全部”主张，但需展开详细磋商。他还称，目前流传的欧洲提案“不具建设性”。

Most of the provisions in the 28-point proposal reflected Mr. Putin’s longstanding demands, including a legally enshrined ban on NATO membership for Ukraine. Still, it is not clear that Mr. Putin would accept the plan even in its original form. Some smaller points represent a comedown from previous Kremlin proposals, such as a cap on Ukraine’s military strength at 600,000, versus the 100,000 that Moscow proposed in 2022 talks.

这份28点计划的大部分条款都反映了普京长期以来的核心诉求，其中包括以法律形式永久禁止乌克兰加入北约。即便如此，普京是否会接受计划的原始版本仍不明朗。部分次要条款相较克里姆林宫此前的提案有所让步，例如将乌克兰军队规模上限设定为60万人，而2022年谈判时俄方提出的上限仅为10万人。

In his remarks on Friday, Mr. Putin spun it as if he had already made concessions. He said that when he met with Mr. Trump in August in Alaska, the Americans had asked the Russians to show flexibility, and that he was “ready” to do so.

在上周五的讲话中，普京将这些调整包装成己方的让步。他表示，今年8月在阿拉斯加与特朗普会面时，美方曾请求俄方展现灵活性，而他当时表示已经“准备好”这样做。

By this, Mr. Putin was most likely referring to the question of territory. Russia’s negotiators dropped their initial demand that Ukraine hand over the entirety of the four regions that Moscow “annexed” in 2022, even though Russia doesn’t control huge portions of that land, including two regional capitals.

普京所指的很可能是领土问题。俄罗斯谈判代表已放弃最初要求乌克兰交出2022年俄方“吞并”的全部四个州的诉求——尽管俄方实际控制区并不涵盖包括两个地区首府在内的广阔区域。

特朗普总统与普京总统于8月在阿拉斯加会晤，两位领导人就乌克兰战争进行了讨论。

In Alaska, Mr. Putin expressed a willingness to stop fighting if, in addition to accepting his other demands, Ukraine handed over just the part of the Donetsk region it still held. The 28-point plan calls for Ukraine to withdraw from that territory, which would become a “demilitarized zone” recognized as Russian land.

在阿拉斯加会谈中，普京曾表示，若乌克兰在接受其他所有要求基础上，还交出仍在其控制下的顿涅茨克部分地区，俄方愿意停火。此次28点计划明确要求乌克兰撤出该区域，该地区将成为被认定为俄罗斯领土的“非军事区”。

Because Mr. Putin has portrayed his war domestically as a rescue operation for the Russian-speaking people of Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk, it would be difficult to sell a victory at home that does not result in the capture of the rest of Donetsk. Russia already controls Luhansk.

由于普京在俄罗斯国内一直将这场战争宣传为“拯救顿涅茨克及毗邻卢甘斯克地区俄族民众”的行动，若无法夺取顿涅茨克剩余领土，他很难向国内民众宣告战争胜利。目前卢甘斯克已完全处于俄罗斯控制之下。

Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said it remained to be seen whether Mr. Putin would be willing to compromise. Mr. Putin could be aiming, Mr. Meister said, to cleave Mr. Trump from the Ukrainians and the Europeans, leaving Russia with an easier path to subjugate Ukraine by force.

德国对外关系委员会俄罗斯问题分析师斯特凡·迈斯特表示，普京是否愿意真正妥协仍有待观察。他认为，普京的真实意图或许是离间特朗普与乌克兰及欧洲的关系，为俄罗斯通过武力征服乌克兰扫清障碍。

“Putin’s calculation is he hopes that Trump gets frustrated with Zelensky and backtracks with any kind of support, and if there is no intelligence sharing or long-range missiles, the Europeans can’t replace it,” Mr. Meister said.

“普京的算盘是，希望特朗普对泽连斯基失去耐心，进而停止一切形式的援助。一旦失去情报共享和远程导弹支持，欧洲方面根本无力填补这一空缺，”迈斯特说道。

Ultimately, Mr. Meister said, Mr. Putin “wants to break Ukraine.”

他总结道，普京的最终目标“就是摧毁乌克兰”。

周日在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔市，人们为上周俄罗斯袭击的遇难者举行葬礼。

President Trump said on Monday that he had accepted an invitation from Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to visit Beijing in April. That occurred while the two leaders discussed several major issues between their nations, including Taiwan, the Ukraine war and lackluster Chinese purchases of American soybeans, according to separate official accounts of their call earlier in the day.

特朗普总统周一表示，他已经接受了中国领导人习近平的邀请，将于明年4月访问北京。据双方各自发布的当天早些时候通话的官方记录，两位领导人在通话中讨论了涉及双边关系的几个重大问题，包括台湾问题、乌克兰战争以及中国对美国大豆采购量不足等。

In an unusual move, the call was initiated by Mr. Xi, and it came after weeks of rising tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan. It also followed a weekend in which top aides to Mr. Trump pushed Ukrainian officials in Geneva to move forward on terms of a proposed peace settlement with Russia, China’s partner — a settlement that Russian leaders have not agreed to.

此次通话是由习近平主动发起的，这不同寻常。此前数周，中国和日本因台湾问题关系持续紧张。而就在上周末，特朗普的高级助手在日内瓦敦促乌克兰官员推进与俄罗斯——中国的重要伙伴——达成一项和平协议，而俄罗斯领导人尚未同意该方案。

Mr. Trump told reporters in late October that he would visit Beijing in April after he and Mr. Xi held a summit in South Korea. American and Chinese officials meeting then in Seoul agreed to a yearlong truce that has rolled back many of the tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on China, and the retaliatory measures Beijing took in return.

10月下旬，在特朗普与习近平于韩国举行峰会后，特朗普曾告诉记者他将于4月访问北京。当时在首尔会晤的美中官员​​达成了一项为期一年的贸易休战协议，取消了特朗普对中国加征的多项关税，以及北京方面采取的报复措施。

In a social media post on Monday afternoon, Mr. Trump said it was a “very good telephone call” that touched on Ukraine, China’s exports of chemicals used to make fentanyl and its purchases of farm products. He described the call as a “follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea” and said there had been significant progress on both sides in meeting those commitments.

特朗普在周一下午的一则社交媒体帖子中表示，这是一次“非常好的通话”，内容涉及乌克兰问题、中国出口用于制造芬太尼的化学品，以及中国购买农产品的情况。他将这通电话描述为“我们在韩国非常成功的会晤的后续”，并表示双方在履行这些承诺方面取得了显著进展。

“Now we can set our sights on the big picture,” Mr. Trump said. “To that end, President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted, and I reciprocated where he will be my guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year.”

“现在我们可以着眼于大局了，”特朗普说。“为此，习近平主席邀请我于4月访问北京，我已经接受。我也对他发出了邀请，欢迎他在明年晚些时候作为我的客人对美国进行国事访问。”

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters outside the White House on Monday that Mr. Trump spoke with Mr. Xi for about an hour. The two spoke about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but “the focus was mainly on the trade deal that we are working on with China.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周一在白宫外告诉记者，特朗普总统与习近平主席通话约一小时。两人谈到了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的问题，但“重点主要集中在我们正在与中国商讨的贸易协议上”。

Mr. Trump also spoke about the needs of American farmers, she said. Overall, Mr. Trump is “pleased with what we’ve seen from the Chinese,” Ms. Leavitt said.

莱维特说，特朗普还谈到了美国农民的需求。她表示，总的来说，特朗普总统“对我们从中国方面看到的表现感到满意”。

Mr. Trump and Ms. Leavitt did not mention Taiwan in their summaries. But Chinese state news organizations stressed that Mr. Xi had “clarified China’s principled position” on Taiwan, a self-governing, democratic island that China lays claim to. Mr. Xi emphasized “that Taiwan’s return to China is an important part of the postwar international order,” state news reports said.

特朗普和莱维特在对通话的总结中没有提到台湾。但中国官方媒体强调，习近平主席“阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场”。台湾是中国主张拥有主权的自治民主岛屿。官方报道称，习近平强调“台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分”。

“While Beijing emphasized the discussion on Taiwan and Ukraine in today’s leaders’ call, Trump to no surprise focused on economic and trade issues,” said Wendy Cutler, a senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former senior U.S. trade official.

“北京强调今天的领导人通话中讨论了台湾和乌克兰，而特朗普不出所料地把重点放在了经济和贸易问题上，”亚洲协会政策研究所高级副总裁、前美国高级贸易官员温迪·卡特勒说。

The issue of Taiwan did not come up at the summit in Seoul. However, tensions over Taiwan between China and Japan, America’s closest ally in Asia, have soared this month. Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told Parliament on Nov. 7 that an attempt by China to blockade or invade Taiwan could prompt Japan to intervene with military force — the first time in recent memory that a Japanese leader has made this kind of remark. China denounced her comment and threatened reprisals.

在首尔的峰会上台湾问题没有被提及。但本月，中国与美国在亚洲最亲密盟友日本因台湾问题紧张局势急剧升温，日本新任首相高市早苗11月对国会表示，若中国试图封锁或入侵台湾，日本可能动用武力干预——这是日本领导人近年首次发表此类言论。中国谴责了她的言论，并威胁要进行报复。

Ms. Takaichi’s comment echoed the four separate statements that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made when he vowed that the American military would defend Taiwan against any Chinese invasion. Mr. Trump has been more circumspect and has not said what he would do if China tried to seize Taiwan.

高市早苗的表态呼应了美国总统拜登四次公开承诺美军将抵御中国对台侵略的立场。特朗普则更为谨慎，始终未表态若中国试图占领台湾他会怎么做。

Mr. Xi has no doubt noted that, and his call was an apparent effort to move the American president closer to Beijing’s perspective and to get Washington to rein in Tokyo.

习近平无疑注意到了这一点，他在电话中显然是试图让美国总统更接近北京的立场，并促使华盛顿约束东京。

According to the official Chinese summary, Mr. Xi made the unusual argument of telling Mr. Trump that China and the United States “fought side by side against fascism and militarism” during World War II, when Japan was their common enemy, and that the issue of Taiwan should not be allowed to destabilize the historical partnership established then.

根据中国官方的通报，习近平向特朗普提出了一个不同寻常的论述，指出中美在“二战”期间曾经“并肩抗击法西斯主义和军国主义”，当时日本是两国的共同敌人，不应该让台湾问题动摇这个历史纽带。

“Beijing is rattled by the Japan flare-up because it sees a regional coalition coalescing around the idea that Taiwan’s security is a shared stake — and that any Chinese quarantine or attack would draw a coordinated response,” said Craig Singleton, a senior director for China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington research group that advocates a confrontational stance on China.

“北京对日本的挑衅感到不安，因为它看到一个地区联盟围绕着台湾的安全关乎共同利益的想法联合起来，中国的任何隔离或攻击都会引起协调的反应，”克雷格·辛格尔顿说，他是捍卫民主基金会的中国高级主管，该基金会是华盛顿的一个研究组织，主张对中国采取强硬立场。

“By pressing Trump directly, Xi is trying to get Washington to reinforce Beijing’s preferred narrative before that coalition hardens,” he added.

“习近平通过直接施压特朗普，试图在该联盟尚未巩固前，让华盛顿强化北京偏好的叙事框架，”他还说。

Mr. Biden’s security strategy in Asia had been to build up alliances and partnerships to forge a united front to counter China’s aggressive military moves throughout the region, including in the Taiwan Strait.

拜登在亚洲的安全战略始终致力于建立联盟和伙伴关系，形成统一战线，以对抗中国在包括台湾海峡在内的整个地区咄咄逼人的军事行动。

The Chinese state media summary also said the leaders discussed the situation in Ukraine on Monday.

中国官方媒体的摘要还说，两国领导人周一讨论了乌克兰局势。

Throughout the Ukraine war, analysts have noted the similarities in how President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia regards Ukraine and how Mr. Xi sees Taiwan. Both view those territories as ones that must be brought under the control of their governments in order to restore the historical Russian and Chinese empires.

纵观乌克兰战争，分析人士注意到俄罗斯总统普京看待乌克兰的方式与习近平看待台湾的方式存在相似性。两位领导人均将这些领土视为必须收归中央政府管辖的区域，以便恢复历史上的俄罗斯帝国和中华帝国版图。

Mr. Xi has remained a close partner of Mr. Putin during the Ukraine war, and China has supported Russia’s defense industry while avoiding sending potent arms to the Russian military. Mr. Putin’s full-scale invasion of Russia in 2022 helped destabilize diplomatic and trade ties around the world, and Chinese officials have had some anxiety about the persistent global costs of the war.

在乌克兰战争期间，习近平始终是普京的亲密伙伴，中国支持俄罗斯国防工业，但避免向俄军提供杀伤力强的武器。普京在2022年领导俄罗斯发动的全面入侵导致全球外交和贸易关系动荡，中国官员对这场战争的持续全球代价亦心存忧虑。

Mr. Trump has said he would like to get the war to end as soon as possible. Mr. Xi could see an opening now to offer help to Mr. Trump on this in exchange for concessions from Washington on issues such as Taiwan and tariffs.

特朗普曾表示希望尽快结束战争。习近平或可借此契机向特朗普提供协助，以换取华盛顿在台湾问题和关税等议题上的让步。

Although the United States and China have greeted the prospect of an economic truce, U.S. officials have appeared wary in recent weeks about whether all the promises made at the summit in Seoul would be fulfilled.

尽管美中都对经济休战的前景表示欢迎，但近几周来，美国官员似乎对峰会上做出的所有承诺是否都能落实持谨慎态度。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said this month that the United States and China were still working on details of an agreement that would guarantee the flow of valuable rare earth minerals from China. Beijing clamped down on exports of those products this year amid the trade clash, causing anxiety among automakers and other companies that need the minerals for their products.

美国财长斯科特·贝森特本月表示，两国仍在就保障稀有矿产稳定供应的协议细节进行磋商。北京今年曾在贸易冲突中收紧对这些产品的出口，引发依赖稀土的汽车制造商和其他企业的担忧。

U.S. and Chinese officials have also been at odds over China’s purchases of American farm goods. China halted purchases of American soybeans this year as trade tensions with the United States flared. After the meeting in South Korea, the Trump administration said China had agreed to resume purchases of American soybeans. The Chinese government, however, never specifically confirmed the details of that agreement.

美中官员在农产品采购问题上也存在分歧。由于与美国的贸易紧张局势升温，中国今年曾暂停购买美国大豆。在韩国会晤之后，特朗普政府表示中国已同意恢复购买美国大豆。然而，中国政府从未明确证实该协议的细节。

Brooke Rollins, the agriculture secretary, said on CNBC on Monday that China had bought about 1.5 million metric tons of soybeans since Oct. 1, a total that is far short of the 12 million metric tons that the Trump administration said the Chinese government has pledged to purchase by the end of the year.

美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯周一在CNBC节目中表示，自10月1日以来，中国购买了约150万吨大豆，这一数字远低于特朗普政府所称中国政府承诺在年底前购买的1200万吨。

“We’ve got a significant way to go,” Ms. Rollins said. “Every sign is that their commitment remains true.”Ms. Rollins said that the terms of the deal with China still needed to be finalized. She also explained that the preliminary agreement did not demand that the soybeans be shipped by the end of the year, but that orders needed to be placed.

“我们还有很长的路要走，”罗林斯说。“所有迹象都表明，他们的承诺依然有效。”罗林斯表示，与中国的协议条款仍需最终敲定。她还解释说，初步协议并未要求大豆必须在年底前装船运输，但需要在年底前下订单。

Amid the truce, the Trump administration has also been debating what kind of American A.I. technology to sell to China. Tech executives favor selling more advanced products to the country to try to keep Chinese companies from developing competing goods, but some Washington officials still see any effort to aid China’s A.I. industry as a national security threat.

在贸易休战期间，特朗普政府也在讨论应向中国出售何种美国人工智能技术。科技公司主管倾向于向中国出售更先进的产品，以防止中国公司开发竞争性产品，但一些华盛顿官员仍然认为，任何帮助中国人工智能产业发展的努力都构成国家安全威胁。

In an interview on Bloomberg TV on Monday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, who is in charge of technology export licenses, said that Mr. Trump was listening to various advisers with different opinions on the topic, and that the decision about whether to sell the H200, a more advanced chip made by Nvidia, was “on his desk.”

负责技术出口许可的美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克周一在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，特朗普正在听取多名顾问的不同意见，最终是否向中国出售英伟达更先进的H200芯片这一决定“取决于他”。

“He is going to weigh those decisions,” Mr. Lutnick said of the president. “He understands President Xi the best. He will decide whether we go forward with that or not.”

“他会权衡这些决定，”卢特尼克说。“他对习近平主席最为了解。他将决定我们是否推进这项销售。”

In Washington, a decade of rancorous polarization just gave us the longest ever government shutdown. But one belief has endured on both sides of the aisle: that the world order, built and led by the United States, is under threat from China, which aims to usurp America’s rightful place atop it.

在华盛顿，长达十年的激烈政治两极化刚刚导致了美国历史上最长的政府停摆。但两党却存在一个罕见的共识：由美国建立并主导的世界秩序正面临中国的威胁，中国意图取代美国在全球的正当领导地位。

There’s a phrase that encapsulates the theory: the Thucydides trap, referring to the violent clash that comes when a rising power challenges the ruling hegemon. In Thucydides’ time, it was Athens that successfully challenged the pre-eminence of Sparta. But it is a pattern that has played out repeatedly through history, with the ambition and aggression of the challenger almost always ending in bloodshed.

有一个词精准概括了这一论调——修昔底德陷阱，特指新兴大国挑战现存霸权国时引发的激烈冲突。在修昔底德所处的时代，是雅典成功挑战了斯巴达的霸主地位。而这一模式在历史上反复上演，新兴大国的野心与扩张几乎无一例外以流血冲突收场。

President Trump’s second term has upended this assumption. With its litany of chaos, the administration has pursued all on its own a root-and-branch destruction of the global order America made — threatening invasions, deploying punitive tariffs indiscriminately and all but abandoning longstanding alliances. China, by contrast, has responded mostly with a steely insistence on the status quo. In a startling reversal, it is America, not China, that seems determined to spring Thucydides’ trap. At the world’s summit, America is overthrowing America.

特朗普的第二任期彻底颠覆了这一预设。在一片混乱中，本届政府单方面对美国亲手建立的全球秩序展开了彻底破坏——威胁发动侵略、滥用惩罚性关税、近乎抛弃长期盟友。相比之下，中国的回应大多是坚定维护现状。局势出现惊人逆转：如今执意触发修昔底德陷阱的，似乎是美国而非中国。在世界之巅，美国正在自我颠覆。

The bipartisan consensus, now showing signs of strain, was built on a misreading of China’s intentions. That, at least, is the argument of a provocative paper published recently in the M.I.T. journal International Security by three East Asia scholars. “China is a status quo power concerned with regime stability,” the authors write, “and it remains more inwardly focused than externally oriented.”

两党此前的这一共识如今已显露裂痕，而这一共识本身建立在对中国意图的误读之上。至少，三位东亚问题学者近期发表在麻省理工学院《国际安全》(International Security)期刊上的一篇颇具争议的论文是这样认为的。作者写道：“中国是一个关注政权稳定、维护现状的大国，其对内政策重心远高于对外战略诉求。”

This cleareyed analysis was based on an examination of a vast corpus of Chinese documents and publications, from official speeches to school curriculums. The conclusions were striking. China’s stated territorial concerns, the authors found, do not extend beyond its long-held claim to Taiwan and relatively small border areas. “China’s aims are unambiguous; China’s aims are enduring; and China’s aims are limited,” they write.

这一清醒的分析基于对海量中国文献资料的深入研究，涵盖官方讲话、学校课程等各类文本。研究结论令人瞩目：作者发现，中国公开宣称的领土关切从未超出其长期主张的台湾地区及相对狭小的边境地带。“中国的目标明确无误；中国的目标持久不变；中国的目标是有限的，”他们写道。

Much of China’s foreign policy, rather than exporting its ideology abroad, is aimed at shoring up the power of the Communist Party at home. What outside observers take to be aggressive moves are often aimed at solving internal problems. Take its Belt and Road Initiative, which some see as a quasi-imperial effort to win the loyalty of developing nations. One of the paper’s authors, Zenobia Chan, a scholar of international relations who teaches at Georgetown University, said that the initiative was driven more by internal considerations than global ambition.

中国的大部分外交政策并非向外输出意识形态，而是旨在巩固执政党在国内的执政根基。外界眼中所谓的激进举措，往往是为解决国内问题而采取的行动。以“一带一路”倡议为例，一些人将其视为中国通过准帝国主义手段争取发展中国家支持的举措。但论文作者之一、乔治敦大学国际关系学者泽诺比亚·陈（音）表示，该倡议的背后更多是国内考量，而非全球野心。

“A lot of it is driven by domestic needs, excess industrial capacity after the global financial crisis,” she told me. China has for the most part not sought to use these investments as leverage for its global ambitions, she added, beyond its longstanding demand that its partners adhere to a One China policy and avoid recognizing the independence of Taiwan. It certainly has not asked developing nations to choose between itself and the United States.

“这在很大程度上是受国内需求推动的，全球金融危机后，中国出现了严重的工业产能过剩，”她告诉我。她还说，除了长期坚持要求合作方恪守一个中国政策、不承认台湾独立外，中国基本上并未将这些海外投资用作实现全球野心的杠杆，更没有强迫发展中国家在美国和中国之间选边站队。

China, to be sure, is hardly a virtuous or even benign actor on the global stage. Its aggression in the South China Sea, vicious repression in Xinjiang, crackdown on Hong Kong and implacable desire to claim Taiwan — no matter what the Taiwanese people want — pose serious challenges to peace and order in Asia and challenge basic principles of human rights. Its escalating diplomatic spat with Japan, suspending seafood imports and advising Chinese citizens to avoid travel there, demonstrates China’s capacity for menace.

当然，中国在全球舞台上绝非高尚甚至善意的角色。其在南海的强硬姿态、在新疆的残酷镇压、对香港的整治行动，以及不顾台湾民众意愿、执意要吞并台湾的顽固诉求，都对亚洲的和平稳定构成了严峻挑战，也违背了基本人权原则。近期中国与日本的外交争端升级——暂停日本海鲜进口并建议中国公民避免赴日旅游——更是彰显了中国的施压能力。

But these actions, however brutal, fall far short of a fundamental reordering of the world. China seems to be asserting what it views as historical claims and domestic prerogatives within the existing system, bending the rules in ways the United States, especially under Trump, is hardly in a position to protest. The distinction matters: A power defending the status quo, even aggressively, poses different challenges than one seeking to remake the world in its image.

但无论这些行为多么残酷，都远未达到重构世界秩序的程度。中国似乎只是在现有体系内维护自身认为的历史诉求和内政主权，以一种美国（尤其是在特朗普执政时期）几乎没有资格指责的方式曲解规则。这一区别至关重要：一个即便手段强硬但以维护现状为目的的大国，还是一个试图按自身形象重塑世界的大国，这两者所构成的挑战有着本质不同。

It may be outmoded, in any case, to think of a single power superintending the world. “It is not simply that the United States is in relative decline, or even that China is rising, but rather that compared with earlier decades, power is held more widely and by a variety of powers in different regions,” Emma Ashford writes in her bracing new book, “First Among Equals.” “The United States and China are ahead of the pack, but by far less than their Cold War counterparts.” Multipolar complexity, not bipolar confrontation, is the future.

无论如何，认为全球应由单一霸权国主导的想法或许早已过时。“这并非单纯的美国相对衰落或中国崛起，而是相较于前几十年，权力分布更加广泛，由不同地区的多个大国共同掌握，”艾玛·阿什福德在其发人深省的新书《群雄之首》(First Among Equals)中写道。“美国和中国虽领先于其他国家，但领先优势远不及冷战时期的两个超级大国。”多极格局下的复杂平衡而非两极对峙才是未来的趋势。

Trump, it’s fair to say, is not responding well to this reality. Of his wild threats, the recent one suggesting military action against Nigeria — on the grounds that it “continues to allow the killing of Christians” — is perhaps the most symptomatic of his frustration. The United States, of course, has always played by its own set of rules. But Trump has abandoned even a fig leaf of fealty to principle. “It’s one thing to say: There’s some rules of international law that don’t apply to us,” the political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta told me. “It’s another thing to say: I really don’t care what international law is.”

可以说，特朗普并未妥善应对这一现实。在他一系列疯狂威胁中，近期以“持续纵容杀害基督徒”为由扬言对尼日利亚动武的言论或许最能体现他的挫败感。美国向来按自己的规则行事，但特朗普甚至抛弃了表面上对原则的尊重。政治学家普拉塔普·巴努·梅塔对我说：“声称‘某些国际法规则不适用于我们’是一回事，而宣称‘我根本不在乎国际法是什么’则是另一回事。”

Trump or no, the military adventurism of the past two decades has become an unmistakable sign of decline. “If we’re having to maintain primacy by invading this country that’s not posing a threat to us and launching a global campaign of antiterror, clearly, we’re on the decline,” Van Jackson, a progressive foreign policy scholar and an author of “The Rivalry Peril,” told me. “It has always been the case in these cycles of history that when the dominant power starts investing and playing this military role globally, you have rising powers who are stepping up, playing a more important economic role globally.”

无论有没有特朗普，过去20年的军事冒险主义都已成为美国衰落的明显标志。“如果我们必须通过入侵这个并未对我们构成威胁的国家、发动全球反恐战争来维持霸权，那显然我们正在走下坡路，”进步派外交政策学者、《对抗危机》(The Rivalry Peril)作者范·杰克逊指出。“历史周期反复证明，当主导大国开始在全球范围内投入资源，扮演这种军事角色的时候，新兴大国就会崛起，在全球经济中发挥更重要的作用。”

History is littered with examples of the dangers of aggression for declining powers — Spain’s crusading military folly in the 16th century, the late Ottoman Empire’s embrace of ethnic nationalism, Britain’s vain attempt to cling to its unsustainable imperial position between the world wars. Each ended the same way: an astonishingly rapid loss of power and prestige on the global stage.

历史上不乏衰落大国因侵略扩张而覆灭的案例：16世纪西班牙军事圣战式愚行、奥斯曼帝国晚期对民族主义的追捧、两次世界大战之间英国维系摇摇欲坠的帝国地位的无谓尝试。这些案例的结局如出一辙：在全球舞台上迅速丧失权力与声望。

This might not be exactly what’s happening. For all Trump’s threats of military action abroad, with the exception of the brief airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and the bombing of small boats in the Caribbean, he seems most interested in deploying the military to police American citizens. In part, this may be training troops — as he told the military brass — for adventures abroad. But it’s hard not to think that waging battles against people who live in Democrat-governed cities is an end in itself.

当下的局势或许并非完全如此。尽管特朗普频频威胁在海外采取军事行动，但除了对伊朗核设施发动短暂空袭、轰炸加勒比海小型船只外，他似乎更热衷于动用军队管控美国公民。正如他对军方高层所言，这在一定程度上可能是为海外军事冒险练兵。但人们很难不认为，对民主党执政城市的居民发动战争本身也是一个目标。

Likewise, Trump’s aggressive tariff warfare has less to do with the world than it seems. The volley was supposedly about leveling the playing field with countries that are “ripping off” America and punishing countries whose policies harm Americans. (Fentanyl is a prime example.) But the recent Supreme Court arguments over Trump’s use of tariffs made clear that these levies raise cash mostly from Americans, bypassing the constitutional power of the purse vested in Congress. The tariffs, in short, looked global but hit locally.

同样，特朗普激进的关税战与世界关系远不如表面看起来那么密切。这场关税战表面上是为了与那些“欺诈”美国的国家公平竞争，惩罚那些政策损害美国利益的国家（芬太尼问题就是典型例子）。但近期最高法院就特朗普关税政策展开的辩论明确显示，这些关税的成本大多由美国民众承担，同时还绕过了宪法赋予国会的财政决策权。简而言之，这场关税战看似针对全球，实则伤害的是本国。

This leads to an irresistible irony. Far from beating back China, America under Trump may come to resemble it. The country is on its way: obsessed with regime stability and willing to use almost any means to keep its people under control; jealously guarding its near periphery while remaining largely uninterested in leading the world; and building a cult of personality around its autocratic leader in an atmosphere of ethnonationalist triumphalism.

这就形成了一种难以抗拒的讽刺：特朗普政府领导下的美国，非但没有遏制中国，反而可能变得越来越像中国。美国正朝着这个方向发展：痴迷于政权稳定，不惜动用一切手段管控民众；小心翼翼地守护周边势力范围，却对领导全球毫无兴趣；在民族主义的狂热氛围中，围绕专制领导人塑造个人崇拜。

Trump, despite his vituperative campaign rhetoric, has never really been a China hawk, even if some around him have led the charge for more aggressive policies to blunt China’s might. Indeed, he has often lavished praise on Xi Jinping, a man who has the kind of virtually limitless power Trump clearly craves. “President Xi is a great leader of a great country,” Trump cooed at their meeting in South Korea last month.

尽管特朗普在竞选时言辞激烈地抨击中国，但他从未真正成为对华强硬派，即便其身边部分人士一直主张采取更激进的政策遏制中国崛起。事实上，他常常对习近平主席大加赞赏，习近平所拥有的那种近乎不受限制的权力正是特朗普梦寐以求的。“习主席是一个伟大国家的伟大领导人，”上月在韩国会晤时，特朗普曾这样献殷勤。

This praise comes as the United States is retreating from the multilateral bodies that it helped create — the United Nations, the World Health Organization and more. As for the Group of 20 meeting starting this weekend in South Africa, Trump announced months ago that he would not attend and would dispatch Vice President JD Vance instead. Vance has played the role of finger-wagging attack dog, lecturing Europeans about free speech and dressing down President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. One can only imagine what he might have said in Johannesburg.

特朗普的赞美发生在美国接连退出自己协助创立的多边机构（联合国、世界卫生组织等）之际。至于本周末在南非召开的二十国集团峰会，特朗普数月前就宣布不会出席，派遣副总统万斯代为参会。万斯在此前的国际场合一直扮演着严厉批评者的角色，说教欧洲国家要维护言论自由，还当面斥责乌克兰总统泽连斯基。不难想象，他若在约翰内斯堡参会，又会发表怎样的言论。

But we will never know, because Trump abruptly announced this month that the United States would boycott the meeting entirely, preposterously claiming that white South Africans were the victims of persecution and genocidal violence at the hands of the country’s Black majority. “No U.S. Government Official will attend as long as these Human Rights abuses continue,” Trump wrote on social media. Then on Thursday, the administration changed course again, asking to send a small, low-level delegation after all, though it would not participate in the summit discussions.

但我们永远无从知晓了，因为特朗普本月突然宣布美国将全面抵制此次峰会，还荒谬地声称南非白人正遭受黑人多数群体的迫害和种族灭绝式暴力。“只要这些侵犯人权的行为持续下去，美国政府官员就不会出席峰会，”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。然而在周四，美国政府又突然改口，表示派遣一支规模小、级别低的代表团参会，但该代表团不会参与峰会讨论。

China is playing a much longer and more sophisticated game. Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s top emissary, will be in Johannesburg, accompanied by a vast retinue of officials, ready to talk with the world’s major economies about the problems and possibilities of the emerging multipolar order.

中国则在进行一场更具长远眼光、更精妙的博弈。作为习近平主席的首席特使，中国总理李强将率领庞大的官员代表团出席约翰内斯堡峰会，准备与全球主要经济体探讨新兴多极秩序下的挑战与机遇。

As its primacy fades, the United States now faces a choice: meet rising nations as respected partners in building a new, more equitable multipolar world or seek the costly, brittle power that comes from domination. Trump has chosen the latter; China, it seems, seeks the former. History tells us which path leads to peace and prosperity, and which is the road to ruin.

随着美国的霸权地位日渐衰落，如今它面临着一个抉择：要么以受尊重的伙伴身份，与新兴国家携手构建一个更公平的新型多极世界；要么执意追求通过霸权统治获得的、代价高昂且脆弱不堪的权力。特朗普选择了后者，而中国似乎选择了前者。哪条道路通向和平与繁荣，哪条道路终将走向毁灭，历史已经告诉我们。

It is another make-or-break moment of wartime leadership for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

这是乌克兰总统泽连斯基的战时统帅能力面临的又一个成败关头。

Late last week, the Trump administration delivered to Mr. Zelensky a 28-point peace plan that many Ukrainians and their Western allies have called a wish list for Russia, a reward for its aggression and a betrayal of Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader was given seven days to either accept it or potentially watch the United States walk away from any remaining support.

上周末，特朗普政府向泽连斯基递交了一个28点和平方案，许多乌克兰人及其西方盟友称其为一份迎合俄罗斯的愿望清单，是对俄罗斯侵略行径的奖励，也是对乌克兰的背叛。乌克兰领导人被给予七天时间，要么接受这个方案，要么面临美国撤回剩余全部援助的风险。

President Trump appears to be doubling down on his statement earlier this year that Ukraine doesn’t “have the cards” to keep fighting, with Mr. Zelensky’s government now under pressure from battlefield losses and a major corruption scandal. But through nearly four years of war, analysts say, Mr. Zelensky has often played weak hands wisely.

特朗普总统似乎在重申他今年早些时候的说法——乌克兰没有继续战斗的“筹码”——而泽连斯基政府此刻正因前线失利和一起重大的腐败丑闻而承受压力。但分析人士指出，近四年的战火中，泽连斯基时常能将弱势化为优势。

While he has publicly acknowledged that the American proposal poses one of the gravest challenges ever to Ukraine, it has also inadvertently strengthened Mr. Zelensky at home, at least for the time being. The 28-point plan has shifted the focus away from a graft scandal that has reached his inner circle and threatened to paralyze his government, allowing Mr. Zelensky to reprise his most successful role: as rally-er in chief.

尽管他公开承认美国的方案是乌克兰面临的最严峻挑战之一，这份方案却意外地——至少暂时——巩固了他在国内的地位。28点方案转移了公众对涉及总统亲信的贪污丑闻的注意力，这场风波原本可能导致政府瘫痪，如今却让泽连斯基得以重新扮演其最成功的角色：团结全民的领袖。

“When Zelensky is cornered, he tends to go on the offensive,” said Viktor Shlinchak, the head of the Institute of World Policy, an analytical research group.

“当泽连斯基被逼到角落时，他往往会转守为攻，”分析研究机构世界政策研究所所长维克托·什林恰克指出。

Perhaps in his tightest corner yet, Mr. Zelensky must decide how hard to push back on a settlement proposal that could bring a pause in the fighting but make it harder for Ukraine to ensure its long-term survival. To find a way through, he will need strong support from his European partners and the Ukrainian public.

泽连斯基正面临可能是迄今为止最为棘手的局面，对于这份能虽然能带来停战，但会让乌克兰更难确保长期存续的和解方案，他需要决定采取多激烈的反抗。要想破局，他将需要来自欧洲伙伴以及乌克兰民众的强力支持。

Mr. Zelensky, analysts say, has become a skilled political performer in the crucible of war.

分析人士指出，在战争的熔炉里，泽连斯基已淬炼成为一名娴熟的政治表演者。

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Zelensky was nearly three years into an unpopular presidency. A former comedic actor, he was often dismissed as a show-business clown. But his decision to stay in Kyiv, the capital, and film defiant selfie videos on the street as Russia bombed the city helped flip the script. Mr. Zelensky rallied the nation and much of the world to resist, cementing his status as an underdog wartime leader to be reckoned with.

2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，泽连斯基的总统任期已接近第三年的尾声，而他的支持率并不高。作为一名前喜剧演员，他常被人嘲讽为娱乐圈的小丑。但他在俄军轰炸基辅期间坚守首都，在街头拍摄拒不屈服的自拍视频，这一举动帮助他扭转了舆论叙事。泽连斯基成功凝聚全国民心与国际社会支持，奠定了虽不被看好，但也不可小觑的战时领袖地位。

He has since weathered storms that threatened the flow of weapons from allies or his own public support. He staved off catastrophic ammunition shortages by pivoting to drone production at home. He resurrected U.S. support when it flagged over the years, often by making emotional and persistent appeals to lawmakers.

此后他屡次化解危及盟友军援与国内支持率的危机。通过转向国内无人机生产，他化解了弹药短缺困境。每当美国的援助出现松懈时，他往往通过对国会议员进行情感强烈且坚持不懈的呼吁，使美国重新投入支持。

10月，乌克兰东部扎波日里亚地区的一处乌军火力阵地，存储在地下的弹药。泽连斯基成功化解了灾难性的弹药短缺危机，还使美国重新投入支持。

Each time, Mr. Zelensky maneuvered and survived. That was partly the result of skillful messaging, experts say. He has coupled that this year with a playbook of turning to European allies to drum up support whenever he has come under pressure from the Trump administration.

泽连斯基总能在一次次危机中迂回求生。专家表示，这在一定程度上归功于他高明的信息传达方式。而今年，他又将这一方式与另一套做法结合起来：每当受到特朗普政府的压力，他就求助于欧洲盟友来争取支持。

That’s exactly what Mr. Zelensky did in a series of phone calls over the weekend to discuss the 28-point peace plan.

在过去的这个周末，他正是通过一系列电话外交讨论28点和平方案来践行此策。

On Saturday, E.U. countries and Britain, Canada and Japan issued a joint statement demanding changes to the proposal’s most objectionable points for Ukraine, including forcible changes in borders and a reduction in the size of its military. The statement said the U.S. proposal would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.

上周六，欧盟国家与英国、加拿大、日本发表联合声明，要求修改和平方案中最令乌方反感的条款——包括强制变更边界、裁减军队规模等。声明称，美国的提案将让乌克兰遭受未来再次被侵略的威胁。

“I have not seen anybody more effective than him in getting out of Europe what I never thought was possible,” a trend that has been visible since early in the war, said Katarina Mathernova, the E.U. ambassador to Ukraine. Communications, she said, are “his superpower” as he has secured money, weapons and diplomatic backing.

欧盟驻乌克兰大使卡塔琳娜·马瑟诺娃指出：“我从未见过有人像他这样高效地从欧洲争取到那些我原以为不可能得到的东西”，这一趋势自战争初期便已显现。她表示，沟通能力是泽连斯基的“超能力”，正是凭借这种能力，他成功争取到了资金、武器与外交支持。

As Mr. Zelensky was turning to Europe for help, Mr. Trump criticized both on social media on Sunday, in a sign of the challenge facing the Ukrainian leader. “Ukraine ‘leadership’ has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts,” Mr. Trump wrote, “and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.”

就在泽连斯基向欧洲寻求帮助之际，特朗普上周日却在社交媒体上同时对他和欧洲提出了批评，这也显示出泽连斯基面临的挑战。“乌克兰的‘领导层’对我们的努力毫无感激之情，”特朗普写道，“而欧洲仍在继续购买俄罗斯的石油。”

Before the 28-point plan emerged last week, Mr. Zelensky had appeared to be on the political ropes. He had prompted widespread anger in Ukraine by trying to neutralize anti-corruption agencies investigating his associates. After those agencies implicated his allies in a vast kickback scheme, members of Parliament called for a no-confidence vote on his government. Several members of his party broke ranks and demanded the resignation of top officials in his presidential office.

上周28点计划曝光前，泽连斯基的政治前景一度岌岌可危。他因试图压制反腐机构调查其亲信而在乌克兰引发广泛愤怒。在这些机构揭露他的亲信牵涉进一桩巨额回扣案后，议会成员呼吁对政府进行不信任投票。他所在政党的多名成员倒戈，要求数名总统府高级官员辞职。

Then came Mr. Trump’s Thanksgiving deadline for a plan premised on conditions that enraged many Ukrainians, including an offer of amnesty for war crimes. Mr. Zelensky seized the moment.

接下来就是特朗普设下的感恩节最后期限，要求乌克兰接受一份包含赦免战争罪犯等激怒乌克兰民众条款的方案。泽连斯基抓住了这个时机。

He has moved to rally both the country’s European allies who have steadfastly stood by him and Ukrainians whose political support for him has waned. On Friday night, Mr. Zelensky released a video with a familiar message set against a heavily symbolic backdrop. From the same street where he defiantly filmed a video on the second day of the invasion, Mr. Zelensky nearly four years later issued a fresh rallying cry.

他开始动员那些始终支持他的欧洲盟友，以及支持度正在下降的乌克兰民众。上周五晚间，泽连斯基发布了一段视频，以一个充满象征意义的背景传递出一条熟悉的讯息。从他在入侵第二天拍下那段抗争视频的同一条街道上，近四年之后，泽连斯基再次发出了新的集结号令。

“I am addressing all Ukrainians now,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Our people, citizens, politicians, everyone. We need to pull ourselves together. Regain our senses. Quit the squabbling. Stop the political game.”

“我现在是对全体乌克兰人民讲话，”泽连斯基说。“我们的人民、公民、政治人士，每一个人。我们必须重整旗鼓。恢复理智。停止内讧。停止政治博弈。”

He presented the settlement proposal as a stark choice between forgoing American backing or losing Ukraine’s “dignity” by acquiescing to Russia’s terms. He prepared Ukrainians for possible concessions while dissociating himself from the plan by highlighting the American pressure.

他将这份和平方案塑造成一个非此即彼的抉择：要么失去美国的支持，要么接受俄罗斯的条件而丧失乌克兰的“尊严”。他一方面让乌克兰民众为可能的让步做好心理准备，一方面又通过强调美国方面的施压，从而使自己与这份方案保持距离。

在乌克兰西部城市捷尔诺波尔，一栋居民楼上周遭俄军袭击后，人们为失踪者守夜。泽连斯基说：“我们的人民、公民、政治人士，每一个人。我们必须重整旗鼓。”

Analysts have noted that Ukrainians over the course of the war have been willing to table their domestic political frustrations in the face of what they see as an existential threat.

分析人士指出，在这场战争过程中，乌克兰人往往愿意将国内政治分歧暂搁一旁，因为在他们看来国家正面临存亡威胁。

Ukrainians are likely to support Mr. Zelensky in the negotiations because he is “the only official representative of Ukraine who embodies the majority’s conviction that we cannot sign a capitulation proposed by Russia,” Mr. Shlinchak, the policy analyst, said.

政策分析师什林恰克表示，乌克兰民众大概率会支持泽连斯基谈判，因为“作为乌克兰唯一合法代表，他凝聚着全民共识——我们绝不能签署俄罗斯提出的投降书”。

“We have no other legitimate leader,” he added. “And because of that, we have no alternative.”

他补充道：“我们没有其他合法领导人。正因为如此，我们也别无选择。”

For evidence of China’s prominence at the United Nations climate summit in Brazil, look no further than the convention hall, where China boasts one of the largest pavilions, prominently located in the center next to the host country.

若论中国在巴西举办的联合国气候大会上的重要地位，只需看看会场就够了，中国在那里拥有大会规模最大的展位之一，占据着紧邻东道国展位的中心显要位置。

Before a fire tore through part of the Pavilion Hall on Thursday, throngs converged daily at China’s exhibition area to pick up panda-themed tote bags, listen to energy experts and admire displays of China’s global investments in clean energy: a solar farm in the Gobi Desert, battery storage in Saudi Arabia, transmission lines in Egypt and Brazil.

周四展馆部分区域发生火灾前，每天都有很多人涌向中国展位，领取熊猫主题手提袋、聆听能源专家演讲，同时驻足参观中国在全球清洁能源领域的投资成果展示，包括戈壁沙漠的太阳能电站、沙特阿拉伯的储能电池项目，以及埃及和巴西的输电线路工程。

China is on its way to becoming the first electrostate, leading the world in electricity generated by wind and solar power and selling that technology, along with electric vehicles, to much of the world.

中国正朝着全球首个电力主导型国家的目标稳步迈进，其风电和太阳能发电量稳居世界第一，同时向全球很多地方出口相关技术及电动汽车。

But behind closed doors in the negotiating rooms at the U.N. summit, where nations are wrestling with how to move away from fossil fuels, China has been mostly quiet.

然而，在联合国气候大会闭门谈判室内，各国围绕如何摆脱化石燃料展开激烈博弈，中国却大多时候保持沉默。

It is not stepping into the vacuum that was created when the Trump administration decided to pull the United States from the climate talks for the first time in 30 years. It has avoided strong positions on the need to prevent the planet from dangerously warming. It is not promising to more aggressively reduce the greenhouse gases it generates, nor is it pushing other nations to do so. And it has declined to offer more money to help poor countries cope climate change or to invest in effort to save tropical forests.

特朗普政府30年来首次退出气候谈判后留下了领导力真空，但中国并未选择填补这一空缺。它既未就阻止全球气候危险变暖这一关键议题表明强硬立场，也未承诺进一步加大温室气体减排力度，同时亦未敦促他国采取行动。此外，中国拒绝额外提供资金助力贫困国家应对气候变化或投入热带雨林保护工作。

As the world gathering headed into its final stretch, analysts said China was showing little interest in taking up the mantle of global climate leader.

随着这个全球大会进入最后阶段，分析人士指出，中国对接手全球气候领导者角色兴趣寥寥。

“It is frustrating,” said Natalie Unterstell, the president of Talanoa, a Brazilian climate research organization. “We would like to see a high-ambition China.”

“这令人失望，”巴西气候研究机构塔拉诺瓦总裁娜塔莉·翁特斯特尔说，“我们原本期待看到一个雄心勃勃的中国。”

One reason appears to be self-interest.

背后的一个原因似乎是自身利益考量。

The United Nations climate body classifies China as a developing country, even though it is the world’s second-largest economy. The Chinese have strongly resisted any change to that status, which would allow it to be grouped with rich, industrialized nations. That would put more pressure on China to enact deeper cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions or provide financial help to poorer countries struggling with climate disruption.

尽管中国已是全球第二大经济体，但联合国气候机构仍将其归类为发展中国家。中国坚决反对改变这一身份。若被划入富裕工业化国家阵营，届时需承担更大幅度的温室气体减排压力，还需向受气候问题困扰的贫困国家提供经济援助。

In the real world, the Chinese have provided billions of dollars in loans and grants to poorer countries to help them deal with climate change and to transition to renewable energy. But its delegation at Belém objects to any language that might result in the United Nations requiring, or even asking, it to provide such aid.

现实中，中国已向贫困国家提供了数十亿美元的贷款和无偿援助，助力其应对气候变化、向可再生能源转型。但在贝伦会议上，中国代表团明确反对联合国任何可能强制（甚至只是建议）其提供此类援助的表述。

When it comes to the most contentious issue in Belém, whether nations will enact a so-called road map for transitioning away from fossil fuels, China has been quiet, diplomats said.

外交官透露，本次贝伦气候大会最具争议的议题是各国是否制定摆脱化石燃料的所谓路线图，而中国在这一问题上始终保持缄默。

Even though China is currently the planet’s biggest polluter, it “has a strongly-held view that climate change is a problem caused by developed countries, and that they should lead the way,” said Kaveh Guilanpour, a vice president at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a nonprofit group that is following the negotiations in Belém.

尽管中国目前是全球最大污染排放国，但它“坚定认为，气候变化是发达国家造成的问题，理应由发达国家率先牵头解决”，追踪本次谈判的非营利组织气候与能源解决方案中心副总裁卡维·吉兰普尔表示。

南京长江沿岸的煤堆。

China’s own plan to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions has been criticized as insufficient. The European Union climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, called it “disappointing,” and former Biden administration officials in Belém said it did not do nearly enough to limit dangerous warming.

中国自身的温室气体减排计划也被外界批评为力度不足。欧盟气候委员沃普克·霍克斯特拉称其“令人失望”，参会的前拜登政府官员也表示，该计划远未达到遏制危险升温的要求。

Representatives of the Chinese delegation did not respond to interview requests.

中国代表团未回应采访请求。

At the same time, China has enjoyed positive publicity merely by continuing to participate in the U.N. climate negotiations. It has also presented itself as stable partner in global discussions. The Chinese state-owned newspaper Global Times declared that the country had “become the defender of international cooperation on climate change.”

与此同时，中国仅凭持续参与联合国气候谈判就获得了积极舆论评价，更将自身塑造成全球对话中的稳定伙伴。中国官方报纸《环球时报》宣称，中国已“成为气候变化国际合作的捍卫者”。

Its leaders have chided both the United States, where the Trump administration is doing nothing to tackle climate change, as well as the Europeans, who are struggling to meet their promises to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that are dangerously heating the planet.

中国领导人还对美国和欧洲提出了批评：特朗普政府在应对气候变化方面毫无作为，而欧洲各国则难以兑现减少导致地球危险升温的二氧化碳排放这一承诺。

“China is a country that honors its commitments,” Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, said pointedly ahead of the formal deliberations.

“中国言必信，行必果，”中国国务院副总理丁薛祥在正式审议开始前明确表态。

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat who is the U.S. federal official to the talks in Belém, said China’s prominence at COP30 underscored how much the Trump administration is ceding the clean energy economy to Beijing.

出席贝伦会议的美国联邦官员、罗德岛州民主党参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯表示，中国在第30届联合国气候变化大会上的突出地位，凸显出特朗普政府正将清洁能源经济的主导权拱手让给中国。

“They are clearly relishing being the primary economy and country present in our absence,” he said.

“在我们缺席时，他们显然享受成为首要经济体和主导国家的地位，”他说。

Environmental groups here have heaped praise on China and noted that the United States is the country that has added the most carbon dioxide to the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution and that, under the Trump administration, it is withdrawing from the 2015 Paris accord, the global agreement to fight climate change. At the same time, they point out, United States is increasing its use of fossil fuels.

参会的环保组织对中国大加赞赏，同时指出：自工业革命以来，美国是全球累计二氧化碳排放量最多的国家；如今，特朗普政府退出了2015年达成的全球应对气候变化协议《巴黎协定》；与此同时，环保人士强调，美国还在不断增加化石燃料的使用量。

“The largest historic polluter has exited the Paris Agreement,” said Avantika Goswami, who leads the climate program at the Centre for Science and Environment, a research group based in New Delhi. “We are seeing China be a leader.”

“这个历史上最大的污染排放国已经退出了《巴黎协定》，而我们看到中国正在发挥领导作用，”新德里科研机构科学与环境中心气候项目负责人阿万提卡·戈斯瓦米说。

China’s top issue in Belém has less to do with leading other nations and more with its own economic interests.

中国在贝伦气候大会上的首要议题，与其说是引领各国，不如说是维护自身经济利益。

Specifically, China wants to eliminate European and other tariffs it sees as a barrier to selling its solar panels, electric vehicles and other exports to global markets. And, it has argued here that if countries are serious about more quickly bringing down emissions, they should make it easier for China to sell its green products.

具体而言，中国希望解除欧洲等地区对其太阳能板、电动汽车等出口产品的关税壁垒。中国在会议上主张，各国若真心想加快减排进程，就应给中国绿色产品的全球销售创造更便利的条件。

“From a soft power perspective I don’t believe China has been ready to play a larger role or even to replace the vacuum left by the U.S.,” said Zou Ji, president of Energy Foundation China, an organization that works with the Chinese government on climate change issues, and a former member of China’s climate negotiating team.

“从软实力角度来看，我认为中国尚未准备好扮演更重要的角色，甚至没想过填补美国留下的空缺，”能源基金会中国区总裁邹骥表示。他曾是中国气候谈判代表团成员，该机构长期与中国政府合作推进气候相关工作。

Instead, he said, it is leading by selling solar panels, EVs and batteries cheaper and more accessible for the rest of the world.

他指出，中国的领导力体现在另一个层面：以更优惠的价格、更便捷的获取方式，向全球出售太阳能电池板、电动汽车和电池产品。

“China’s rise as a global economic and industrial power is unfolding far more rapidly than the pace of U.N. politics,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“中国作为全球经济和工业大国的崛起速度，远远超过联合国政治的进程，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕说。

Inside a crowded convention center in South Korea last month, Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, beamed as she met China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for the first time. Mr. Xi smiled back, a rare display of warmth between the rival countries.

上个月，在韩国一个座无虚席的会展中心里，日本新任首相高市早苗与中国国家主席习近平首次会面，高市笑容满面。习近平也回以微笑——在这两个存在嫌隙的国家之间，这是难得一见的温暖场面。

Only a few weeks later, the relationship has come undone. Mr. Xi has unleashed a wave of reprisals against Japan over a recent comment by Ms. Takaichi about defending Taiwan, a self-governed democracy that Beijing considers part of its territory.

但仅仅几周之后，两国关系便急转直下。由于高市早苗近日关于保卫台湾的言论，习近平对日本采取了一系列报复措施。台湾是一个自治的民主政体，但北京视其为中国领土的一部分。

The dispute poses an early test for Ms. Takaichi, who took office late last month, the first woman to serve as prime minister in Japan’s history. As a lawmaker, she was a vocal critic of Mr. Xi, criticizing China’s militarization of the South China Sea and visiting Taiwan to show solidarity with its leaders.

对于上月底刚刚上任的日本首位女首相高市早苗而言，此次争端构成了一项早期考验。高市在担任议员时期是习近平的公开批评者，曾抨击中国在南海的军事化举动，也曾访问台湾以表达对其领导人的支持。

Now, with the crisis threatening to overwhelm her nascent administration, Ms. Takaichi’s task, analysts say, is to avoid an escalation while still projecting strength at home.

分析人士指出，如今这场危机有可能压倒她刚起步的政府。高市当前的任务是避免局势升级，同时还要在国内展现强硬姿态。

“Nobody expected that her tenure would begin with a full-blown row with China,” said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “The challenge now is how to de-escalate without caving to China, or appearing to back down in a way that would weaken her domestically.”

“没人想到她的任期会以一场与中国的全面争端开场，”位于华盛顿的布鲁金斯学会亚洲政策研究中心主任米雷娅·索利斯说。“现在的挑战是，如何在不向中国让步的情况下缓和局势，也不能表现得退缩，否则会削弱她在国内的支持。”

The flare-up shows no signs of easing. The Chinese government has urged its citizens not to visit Japan, potentially sapping a major source of tourism, and Beijing signaled this week that it might move to restrict imports of Japanese seafood. China also dispatched Coast Guard ships to patrol near islands that both countries claim and warned Chinese students in Japan about what it said were risks to their safety.

这场冲突毫无缓和迹象。中国政府已敦促公民不要赴日旅行，这可能削弱日本重要的旅游收入来源；北京本周还暗示可能限制日本海产品进口。中国还派遣海警船前往中日双方声称拥有主权的争议岛屿附近巡逻，并提醒在日本的中国留学生注意所谓安全风险。

More reprisals could still come; China has a record of economic coercion. During a dispute in 2010, China limited the export of critical minerals to Japan, including rare earth metals. Chinese state media urged boycotts of South Korean companies operating in mainland China in 2017 when punishing South Korea over its embrace of an American missile defense system.

报复措施可能尚不止于此。中国有实施经济胁迫的记录。在2010年的一场争端中，中国限制向日本出口包括稀土金属在内的重要矿物。2017年，北京方面因韩国部署美制反导系统而惩罚它，当时的中国官方媒体曾号召抵制在华经营的韩国企业。

“China has a playbook on how to apply pressure, and they’re going chapter by chapter,” Ms. Solís said. “The Chinese are not offering any off-ramp. The question is, what is the end game?”

“中国对如何施压有一套完整的剧本，他们正按部就班地执行，”索利斯说。“中国没有提供任何缓和途径。问题是：他们的最终目的是什么？”

The latest dispute began on Nov. 7, when Ms. Takaichi was fielding questions before the Diet, Japan’s Parliament. A lawmaker from a rival party asked her about potential “survival-threatening situations,” a classification that, under Japanese law, allows the deployment of the country’s military forces.

这场最新争端始于11月7日。当时高市早苗在国会接受质询。来自在野党的议员问她关于“存亡危机事态”的问题——根据日本法律，此类事态认定允许日本部署自卫队。

Ms. Takaichi said an attempt by China to blockade or seize Taiwan, which lies less than 70 miles from Japanese territory and sits astride shipping lanes vital for Japan’s economic survival, could qualify.

高市表示，如果中国试图封锁或夺取台湾，就可能构成“存亡危机事态”。台湾距离日本领土约110公里，且处于对日本经济命脉至关重要的航道上。

“If it involves the use of warships and the use of force, I believe that this could constitute an existential threat, no matter how you look at it,” she told Parliament.

“如果涉及军舰和武力的使用，不管从哪个角度看，我认为这都可能构成存亡危机，”她在国会说。

日本广岛县吴市海军基地，摄于今年。高市早苗表示，若中国试图夺取台湾，就可能构成“存亡危机事态”，从而有理由部署自卫队。

Previous Japanese prime ministers, including Shinzo Abe, Ms. Takaichi’s political mentor, had avoided specifying how they would respond if China moved against Taiwan.

包括高市的政治导师安倍晋三在内，此前的日本首相均避免具体说明若中国对台采取行动将作何反应。

Ms. Takaichi later said her remarks did not constitute a change in policy. But her comments provoked a furious response in China, with officials demanding a retraction.

高市后来表示，她的言论并未构成政策改变。但她的表态仍引发了中国的强烈反应，要求她撤回言论。

“Taiwan is China’s Taiwan,” Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, said at a news conference on Thursday. “Taiwan is none of Japan’s business.”

“台湾是中国的台湾，”中国外交部发言人毛宁周四在记者会上说。“台湾是否有事，根本不是日本的事。”

China and Japan have feuded for decades, largely because of the legacy of World War II, when the Japanese army committed atrocities, including the 1937 Nanjing Massacre, crimes for which Beijing believes Tokyo has never sufficiently apologized.

中日两国数十年来一直龃龉不断，主要源于二战历史遗留问题，包括日本军队在1937年南京大屠杀中犯下的暴行，北京认为东京从未就此做出充分的道歉。

Even before Ms. Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, there were signs that Mr. Xi’s government was eager to increase pressure on Tokyo. China has been fanning anti-Japanese sentiment this fall as it commemorates the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

甚至在高市发表有关台湾的言论之前，已有迹象显示习近平政府有意加大对日本的施压。今年秋天，在纪念二战结束80周年之际，中国一直在煽动反日情绪。

“China was primed to respond,” said Bonny Lin, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But I don’t think anyone quite predicted the extent of the escalation.”

“中国原本就准备好做出强烈回应，”战略与国际研究中心中国实力项目主任林洋说。“但恐怕没人预料到升级会到现在这种程度。”

When Ms. Takaichi met Mr. Xi in South Korea, for a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, she raised issues including China’s movements in the South China Sea and human rights abuses.

在韩国参加亚太经合组织峰会期间，高市早苗在与习近平会面时提出了包括中国在南海的行动和人权问题等议题。

Ms. Takaichi, who is grappling with a variety of domestic challenges, seems eager to let the dispute pass. She has ignored calls by some in her party to deport a Chinese diplomat stationed in Japan who recently issued a violent threat against her on social media. After the initial storm over her remarks, she told lawmakers she would refrain from “making explicit statements on specific scenarios.”

在国内面临多重挑战的高市似乎急于平息这场争端。她无视了党内一些人士要求驱逐一名驻日中国外交官的呼声，这名外交官近期在社交媒体上对她发出暴力威胁。在最初的舆论风暴过后，她对议员表示，今后将避免对具体情境作出“明确陈述”。

But it could be a long time before tensions calm. Ms. Takaichi’s party, the Liberal Democratic Party, lacks the back channels it once had to the Chinese government. The L.D.P. recently had a falling out with Komeito, its main coalition partner, which had served as a conduit to China.

但紧张关系可能难以在短期内平息。高市所属的自民党已经失去了以往与中国政府沟通的渠道。自民党近期与其主要执政联盟伙伴公明党关系破裂，公明党过去一直是与中国沟通的纽带。

“The Chinese are digging in, and Takaichi is unwilling to retract,” Ms. Lin said. “In the short term, there is no obvious way out.”

“中方态度强硬，高市也不愿退让，”林洋说。“短期内看不到明显的出路。”

It would not be a stretch to describe this period of hyperactive growth in the tech industry as a historic moment.

将科技行业这段异常活跃的增长期称为历史性时刻并不为过。

Nvidia, which makes computer chips that are essential to building artificial intelligence, said on Wednesday that its quarterly profit jumped to nearly $32 billion, up 65 percent from a year ago and 245 percent from the year before that.

周三，生产构建人工智能所必需芯片的英伟达表示，其季度利润跃升至近320亿美元，同比增长65%，较两年前增长245%。

Just three weeks ago, Nvidia became the first publicly traded company to be worth $5 trillion. Microsoft, Google, Apple and Amazon are also now valued in the trillions. In their most recent quarters, the four companies reported more than $110 billion in combined profits.

就在三周前，英伟达成为首家市值突破5万亿美元的上市公司。微软、谷歌、苹果和亚马逊目前市值也都达到了数万亿美元。这四家企业最近季度录得总利润超过1100亿美元。

“There’s been a lot of talk about an A.I. bubble,” said Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, after his company’s blowout quarterly report. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

“关于人工智能泡沫的讨论不绝于耳，”英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在公司交出漂亮的季报后表示。“但从我们的视角看，情况截然不同。”

But some industry insiders say there is something ominous lurking behind all this bubbly news. They look at the same eye-popping growth and the same stunning wealth creation as Mr. Huang and see a house of cards. And they say it is hard to know what the damage will be if it collapses.

但一些业内人士表示，所有这些看似美好的消息背后都隐藏着不祥之兆。他们与黄仁勋目睹了同样的增长与财富奇迹，却认为这是脆弱的纸牌屋。他们表示，如果崩塌，由此造成的破坏将难以估量。

Even Nvidia’s growth can be explained away. Demand for the company’s chips doesn’t mean people want to use A.I. It merely means that companies are building giant A.I. systems in hopes someone will pay to use them. The Nvidia-led rally on Wall Street lasted only a few hours, after all, and the company’s share price was down about 3 percent at the end of trading on Thursday. A sharp reversal in tech stocks pulled the whole market lower, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6 percent for the day.

就连英伟达的增长也并非无懈可击。市场对其芯片的需求并不意味着人们想使用人工智能，而是仅表明企业正在斥巨资构建人工智能系统，寄望于未来能吸引付费用户。英伟达引领的华尔街涨势仅维持数小时，截至周四收盘该公司股价下跌约3%。科技股大幅回调拖累整个市场，标普500指数当日下挫1.6%。

英伟达强劲的季度业绩曾短暂缓解华尔街对人工智能巨大开支的担忧。

The heart of the pessimist’s case against the A.I. boom, however, is the money pouring into the start-up world and the billions upon billions those companies are spending on data centers.

不过，对人工智能热潮持悲观态度者持有的核心论点是，巨额资金正涌入相关初创企业，而这些公司在数据中心上的支出惊人。

OpenAI, the company that kicked off the boom three years ago, is now worth an estimated $500 billion, making it the most valuable start-up in the world. Anthropic, OpenAI’s archrival, is now worth an estimated $183 billion. And Thinking Machines Labs, which was started in February, is already believed to be valued in the tens of billions of dollars.

三年前引爆这场热潮的OpenAI目前估值约5000亿美元，是全球最有价值的初创企业。OpenAI的主要竞争对手Anthropic目前估值约1830亿美元。今年2月才创立的Thinking Machines Labs据信估值也已达到数百亿美元。

OpenAI is not profitable and doesn’t expect to be until 2030. Anthropic is also in the red. Thinking Machines just put out its first product.

OpenAI目前尚未盈利，而且预计2030年前都难以实现收支平衡。Anthropic同样处于亏损状态。Thinking Machines则刚刚推出首款产品。

That hasn’t stopped them from spending. Anthropic recently said it would invest $50 billion in new data centers. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s celebrity chief executive, said his company was committed to spending $1.4 trillion on computing power for its A.I. pursuits.

但这并没有阻止它们烧钱。Anthropic近日宣布将投资500亿美元用于新数据中心的建设。OpenAI的明星首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼则表示，公司将为其人工智能事业投入1.4万亿美元用于算力。

“What OpenAI is engaged in is the most dramatic case of ‘Fake It Until You Make It’ that we have ever seen,” said Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson. “They are making huge commitments that they literally can’t afford.”

“OpenAI现在做的事情，是我们见过最夸张的‘一直假装下去直到成真’的案例，”D.A. Davidson的科技研究负责人吉尔·卢里亚说。“他们做出的承诺巨大，实际上根本无力承担。”

OpenAI and its partners are pumping $500 billion into new data centers in the United States as part of what they call Project Stargate. In today’s dollars, that is enough to fund the Manhattan Project 15 times over. It could pay for the entire Apollo moon project. Twice.

OpenAI与其合作伙伴正斥资5000亿美元在美国兴建新一代数据中心，若按当前币值计算，这个所谓的“星门计划”足以支持15次曼哈顿计划的全部开支，甚至能支付两次完整的阿波罗登月计划。

“Stargate alone — if it does actually reach $500 billion — would be the largest infrastructure project in the world, several times over,” said Evan Conrad, chief executive of San Francisco Compute, a start-up that specializes in hardware for A.I.

“仅星门计划本身——如果其规模真的达到5000亿美元——就将是世界上最大的基础设施项目，而且超越现有纪录数倍，”San Francisco Compute的首席执行官埃文·康拉德说道，该公司是一家专注于人工智能硬件的初创企业。

Tech companies, governments and their partners around the world will spend nearly $3 trillion on data centers by 2028, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. To make that happen, they will borrow nearly a trillion dollars from banks and other financial institutions.

据摩根士丹利的分析师预测，到2028年，全球的科技公司、各国政府及其合作伙伴将在数据中心的投入近3万亿美元。为了实现这一目标，他们需从银行和其他金融机构借贷近1万亿美元。

Over the last 12 months, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta spent about $360 billion on new data centers. With their huge profits, they can afford it. Other companies have to take on debt. That includes established companies like the software maker Oracle and smaller outfits with names like CoreWeave and Nebius.

过去12个月里，谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta在新数据中心上投入约为3600亿美元。凭借巨额利润，它们负担得起这种开支。其他公司则不得不举债投入。这其中有甲骨文这样的老牌企业，也有CoreWeave、Nebius等较小的公司。

Because that debt is held by a wide array of financial institutions — including private credit lenders as well as traditional banks — experts are struggling to understand how much risk is in the system.

由于这些债务分散在众多金融机构——包括私人信贷机构与传统银行——专家们难以准确评估整个系统中究竟蕴含多少风险。

Adding to worries, critics say some of the deals OpenAI has made with chipmakers, cloud computing companies and others are oddly circular. OpenAI is set to receive billions from tech companies but also sends billions back to the same companies to pay for computing power and other services.

更令人担忧的是，批评者指出OpenAI与芯片制造商、云计算公司等达成的交易存在奇特的资金循环现象。OpenAI在获得科技巨头数十亿美元注资的同时，又向同一批企业支付等量资金以获取算力等服务。

Some financial analysts worry that these deals make the market look stronger than it really is. Ultimately, the health of the market will depend on whether companies like OpenAI can turn a profit before debt overwhelms them.

一些金融分析师担心，这类交易正在制造市场繁荣的假象。最终，市场的稳定性将取决于像OpenAI这样的公司能否在被债务压垮前实现盈利。

(The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied the suit’s claims.)

（《纽约时报》已起诉OpenAI和微软，指控其人工智能系统侵犯新闻内容版权。OpenAI和微软均否认相关指控。）

Nvidia has also made some deals that have raised questions about whether the company is paying itself. It announced that it would invest $100 billion in OpenAI. The start-up receives that money as it buys or leases Nvidia’s chips.

英伟达的某些交易引发了同样的质疑。该公司宣布将向OpenAI投入1000亿美元，而这些资金最终会通过采购或租赁英伟达芯片的方式回流至该公司。

On Tuesday, Nvidia announced a similar $10 billion deal with Anthropic, which will buy $30 billion in A.I. computing backed by Nvidia chips. That money will actually go to buy computing power from Microsoft, which also invested $5 billion in Anthropic.

周二，英伟达宣布与Anthropic达成100亿美元的类似协议，后者将采购价值300亿美元、由英伟达芯片支持的人工智能算力。这笔资金实际将用于从微软购买算力，而微软也向Anthropic注资50亿美元。

Goldman Sachs has estimated that Nvidia will make 15 percent of its sales next year from what critics also call circular deals.

高盛估计，英伟达明年的销售额中有15%将来自批评者所称的“自我循环交易”。

A.I. companies’ chatbots and image generators are already being used by hundreds of millions of people. Many of them pay monthly fees that can top $100. But it’s not so clear that business customers — the real cash cow for the tech industry — are as keen to use A.I.

人工智能公司开发的聊天机器人与图像生成器已吸引数亿用户，其中不少人每月支付超过100美元的服务费。但作为科技行业真正利润支柱的企业客户是否同样热衷采用人工智能技术仍存疑问。

Nearly eight in 10 businesses have said they have used A.I. technologies. Just as many have said these technologies had “no significant bottom-line impact,” according to recent research from McKinsey & Company.

麦肯锡的最新研究显示，近八成企业声称已应用人工智能技术，但同等比例的企业表示这些技术对其“利润没有显著影响”。

Sundar Pichai, the chief executive of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, said in an interview with the BBC this week that the spending and skyrocketing valuations were driven at least in part by “irrationality.” If the market crashes, he said, the damage will be widespread. “I think no company is going to be immune, including us,” he said.

谷歌母公司Alphabet的首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊本周在接受BBC采访时表示，这些支出和飙升的估值至少部分源于“非理性因素”。他警告称若市场崩盘，冲击将十分广泛。“我认为没有公司能幸免，我们也不例外，”他说。

Tech industry veterans often compare the A.I. boom to the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. When that bubble burst, hundreds of start-ups disappeared and established companies that were selling technology to those young outfits experienced huge losses. But other start-ups found lasting success and did, in fact, change the world — most notably Amazon and Google.

科技行业资深人士常将当前人工智能热潮与1990年代的互联网泡沫相提并论。当年的泡沫破裂时，数百家初创公司消失，而那些向新兴企业提供技术支持的成熟公司也遭受重创。但也有部分初创公司获得了持久成功，并深刻改变了世界——最著名的例子是亚马逊和谷歌。

“When bubbles happen, smart people get over-excited about a kernel of truth,” Mr. Altman told reporters earlier this year. “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are over-excited about A.I.? My opinion is yes. Is A.I. the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.”

“当泡沫形成时，聪明人总会因一个具有合理价值的核心而过度兴奋，”奥尔特曼今年早些时候对记者表示。“当前投资者整体是否对人工智能过度追捧？我的看法是肯定的。人工智能是否是这个时代最具变革性的技术？我的答案同样是肯定的。”