Rare earth metals were an afterthought for most world leaders until China temporarily suspended most exports of them a couple of months ago.

直到几个月前中国暂时停止了大部分稀土出口，大多数世界领导人才惊觉这一资源的价值。

But for almost half a century, they have received attention from the very top of the Chinese government.

但在近半个世纪的时间里，稀土一直受到中国政府最高层的关注。

During his 27-year rule in China, Mao Zedong focused often on increasing how much iron and steel China produced, but seldom on its quality. The result was high production of weak iron and steel that could not meet the needs of the industry.

在毛泽东统治中国的27年间，他往往重视的是提高中国的钢铁产量，却很少关注其质量。结果是生产了大量质量低劣的钢铁，无法满足工业需求。

In the late 1940s, metallurgists in Britain and the United States had developed a fairly low-tech way to improve the quality of ductile iron, which is widely used for pipelines, car parts and other applications. The secret? Add a dash of the rare earth cerium to the metal while it is still molten. It was one of the early industrial uses of rare earths. And unlike most kinds of rare earths, cerium was fairly easy to chemically separate from ore.

20世纪40年代末，英国和美国的冶金学家研发出了一种技术含量相当低的方法来提高球墨铸铁的质量，这种材料广泛用于管道、汽车零件和其他产品。个中秘诀何在？在金属仍处于熔融状态时加入少量的稀土元素铈。这是稀土金属在工业上的早期应用之一。而且与大多数稀土金属不同的是，铈从矿石中进行化学分离相对容易。

When Deng Xiaoping emerged as China’s paramount leader in 1978, he moved quickly to fix the country’s iron and steel industry. Mr. Deng named a top technocrat, Fang Yi, as a vice premier and also as the director of the powerful State Science and Technology Commission.

1978年成为中国的最高领导人后，邓小平迅速着手整顿钢铁工业。他任命了技术专家型官员方毅担任副总理，并兼任掌握重权的国家科学技术委员会主任。

Mr. Fang immediately took top geologists and scientists to Baotou, a city in China’s Inner Mongolia that had vast steel mills and the country’s largest iron ore mine nearby. Baotou had already made much of the iron and steel for China’s tanks and artillery under Mao, but Mr. Fang’s team made an important decision to extract more than iron from the mine.

方毅立即带领中国最好的地质学家和科学家前往包头，这座位于内蒙古的城市不仅拥有巨大的钢铁厂，附近还有全国最大的铁矿。在毛泽东时代，包头为中国的坦克和大炮生产了大量钢铁，但方毅团队做出了一项重要决定，不仅要从这座矿提取铁，还要提取其他矿物质。

The city’s iron ore deposit was laced with large quantities of so-called light rare earths. These included not just cerium, for ductile iron and for glass manufacturing, but also lanthanum, used in refining oil.

这座城市的铁矿石矿床中富含大量的所谓轻稀土。除了用于球墨铸铁和玻璃制造的铈，还包括石油精炼所需的镧。

The iron ore deposit also held medium rare earths, like samarium. The United States had started using samarium in the 1970s to make the heat-resistant magnets needed for electric motors inside supersonic fighter jets and missiles.

矿床中还蕴藏着钐等中稀土。美国在70年代已将其用于制造超音速战机和导弹电机必需的耐高温磁体。

“Rare earths have important application value in steel, ductile iron, glass and ceramics, military industry, electronics and new materials,” Mr. Fang declared during his visit to Baotou in 1978, according to an exhibit at the city’s museum.

在包头博物馆陈列的文献中可以看到，方毅在1978年视察包头时曾断言，“稀土在钢、球墨铸铁、玻璃陶瓷、军工、电子和新材料等方面有重要的应用价值。”

At the time, Sino-American relations were improving. Soon after his Baotou visit, Mr. Fang took top Chinese engineers to visit America’s most advanced factories, including Lockheed Martin and McDonnell Douglas assembly plants near Los Angeles.

当时正值中美关系改善。方毅结束包头考察后不久，带领中国的顶尖工程师团队造访美国最先进的工厂，包括洛克希德·马丁公司和麦道飞机在洛杉矶附近的组装厂。

北京中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所博物馆陈列的白云鄂博矿稀土矿物标本，摄于2025年5月。

Rare earth metals are tightly bound together in nature. Prying them apart, particularly the heavier rare earths, requires many rounds of chemical processes and huge quantities of acid.

自然界中稀土金属紧密共生，尤其是重稀土元素的萃取分离需经多道化学工序，并消耗大量的酸。

During the 1950s and 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union had each developed similar ways to separate rare earths. But their techniques were costly, requiring stainless steel vats and piping as well as expensive nitric acid.

在上世纪50、60年代，美国和苏联都研发出了类似的分离工艺。但技术成本高昂，不仅需配置不锈钢分离槽及管道系统，更依赖昂贵的硝酸制剂。

China ordered government research institutes to devise a cheaper approach, said Constantine Karayannopoulos, a chemical engineer and former chief executive of several of the largest North American rare earth companies. The Chinese engineers figured out how to separate rare earths using inexpensive plastic and hydrochloric acid instead.

曾在北美几家最大的稀土企业担任CEO的化学工程师康斯坦丁·卡拉扬诺普洛斯透露，中国政府当时指令科研机构研发低成本方案。中国工程师找到了使用廉价塑料和盐酸分离稀土的工艺。

The cost advantage, together with weak enforcement of environmental standards, allowed China’s rare earth refineries to undercut competitors in the West. Facing increasingly stiff environmental regulations, almost all of the West’s refineries closed.

凭借成本优势与宽松的环境监管，中国的稀土精炼厂实现了对西方竞争对手的价格碾压。面对日益严格的环境法规，西方的精炼厂几乎全部关停。

Separately, China’s geologists discovered that their country held nearly half the world’s deposits of rare earths, including rich deposits of heavy rare earths in south-central China, valuable for magnets in cars as well as for medical imaging and other applications.

与此同时，中国的地质学家发现，他们的国家拥有全球近一半的稀土储量，包括中南部地区丰富的重稀土资源，这种资源对用于汽车、医疗成像及其他领域的磁体都极具价值。

江西的一处稀土矿作业现场，摄于2012年3月。

In the 1990s and 2000s, Chinese refinery engineers mastered the task of prying apart heavy rare earths. That gave China an almost total monopoly on heavy rare earth production.

20世纪90年代至新世纪初，中国的精炼工程师成功攻克了重稀土分离技术。这使得中国在重稀土生产上几乎形成了完全垄断。

“The Middle East has oil,” Mr. Deng said in 1992. “China has rare earths.”

邓小平在1992年曾表示，“中东有石油，中国有稀土。”

By then, he and Mr. Fang had already trained the next leader to guide the country’s rare earth industry: a geologist named Wen Jiabao. He had earned a master’s degree in rare earth sciences in the late 1960s at the Beijing Institute of Geology, when most of the rest of China was paralyzed during the upheaval of the Cultural Revolution.

那时，他和方毅早已经培养出下一位将引领中国稀土产业发展的领导人——一位名叫温家宝的地质学家。上世纪60年代末，温家宝在北京地质学院获得了稀土科学的硕士学位，当时中国大部分地区正因文化大革命的动荡而陷入瘫痪。

Mr. Wen went on to become a vice premier in 1998 and then China’s premier from 2003 to 2013. During a visit to Europe in 2010, he declared that little happened on rare earth policy in China without his personal involvement.

温家宝于1998年出任副总理，2003年至2013年担任总理。在2010年访欧期间，他宣称，中国的稀土政策几乎无一不是在他的直接参与下制定的。

As one of the largest holders of U.S. debt for the last two decades, China has not shied away from lecturing the United States about its financial behavior.

作为过去20年美国债务的最大持有国之一，中国从不回避对美国财政行为的批评。

Like a parent scolding a child for racking up credit card bills, China needled Washington to protect its assets during the 2013 debt ceiling impasse and blamed Americans for setting off the 2008 global financial crisis with their profligate spending.

就像父母训斥孩子透支信用卡一样，中国在2013年美国债务上限僵局期间向华盛顿施压，要求其保护中国资产；2008年全球金融危机后，中国更是直指美国人的挥霍无度是罪魁祸首。

But as American lawmakers debated, and ultimately passed, a giant domestic bill championed by President Trump that is projected to add more than $3 trillion to the federal debt by 2034, China has remained largely silent despite the potential long-term risk it poses to its holdings.

但当美国国会议员就一项由特朗普总统支持、预计到2034年将使联邦债务激增逾3万亿美元的庞大国内法案进行辩论并最终通过时，中国却基本上不置一词——尽管该法案可能对中国持有的美国资产构成长期风险。

China’s main concerns about its holdings has long been over the dollar’s value and whether the United States will fail to pay its obligations, said Yasheng Huang, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

麻省理工学院的经济学家黄亚生表示，中国对持有美债的主要担忧长期以来一直集中在美元的价值，以及美国是否会违约这两个层面。

“These two concerns are far more material today,” he said. “The dollar has already depreciated, dragging down the Chinese holdings. In terms of the other concern, I personally do not trust this administration to uphold rule of law and debt obligations.”

“这两个担忧如今都更加现实，”他说。“美元持续贬值已经拖累中国持债价值。至于另一个担忧，我个人不信任本届政府会恪守法治原则与债务义务。”

In covering the debate, Chinese state media have emphasized how divisive the bill has been and the seeming futility of the American democratic process to reflect popular will. Reports described the debates as a “political circus,” while Chinese pundits said the vote highlighted “increasing polarization” in the United States.

中国官方媒体在报道国会辩论时强调了该法案的争议性，以及美国民主制度在体现民意方面似乎失效。报道将辩论描述为一场“政治马戏”，中国的评论人士则称投票突显了美国“日益加剧的两极分化”。

But Chinese officials have not yet publicly criticized the Trump administration and could be focused on other considerations.

但中国官员尚未公开批评特朗普政府，沉默背后可能存在其他考量。

Averting a Trade War Is a Priority

避免贸易战是优先事项

China probably sees no reason to antagonize Mr. Trump by publicly criticizing his bill when it is in a shaky truce with his administration in a trade war that had earlier seen both sides impose sky-high tariffs on each other’s goods.

在双方贸易战的脆弱休战状态下，中国可能认为没有必要通过公开批评该法案来激怒特朗普，此前双方曾互征高额关税。

The two sides have agreed to lift certain countermeasures, and keep working toward a deal. Momentum may even be building toward a meeting between Mr. Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

双方已同意取消部分对抗性措施，并继续朝达成协议努力。双方甚至可能正在为特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平的会晤创造条件。

Beijing, which is trying to revive economic growth, can ill afford an extended trade war. Concerns over its treasury holdings are not top of mind. More pressing are the tariffs and efforts by the Trump administration to persuade other countries to restrict their own trade with China.

北京正试图重振经济增长，难以承受一场旷日持久的贸易战。相比之下，国债持有问题并不是当务之急。更紧迫的是关税问题，以及特朗普政府试图说服其他国家限制对华贸易的努力。

“China is still trying to maintain a fragile trade truce with the United States,” said Joe Mazur, an analyst at Trivium, a research firm. “Criticizing Trump’s signature piece of legislation could anger him and torpedo recent diplomatic understandings.”

“中国仍在努力维持与美国之间脆弱的贸易停火，”研究公司Trivium的分析师乔·马祖尔表示。“批评特朗普的标志性立法可能会激怒他，破坏近期达成的外交共识。”

Why Interrupt Your Enemy’s Mistake?

为什么要阻止敌人犯错呢？

From China’s perspective, rather than fuel American economic growth, the measure could push Washington closer to a fiscal cliff and undermine its ability to compete with Beijing.

从中国的角度来看，该法案非但不会推动美国经济增长，还可能把华盛顿推向财政悬崖，削弱其与北京竞争的能力。

“The chances of Trump’s success are at best uncertain,” said Shen Dingli, a scholar of international relations in Shanghai. Instead, the measure “could indirectly help make China great again” by weakening the United States, he said.

“特朗普成功的几率充其量也只能说是不确定，”上海的国际关系学者沈丁立表示。他还表示，该法案通过削弱美国实力，“可能会间接帮助中国再次强大”。

Crises and chaos in the United States feed into one of Mr. Xi’s primary assertions about the state of the world, that the East is rising and the West is declining. China has highlighted the Trump administration’s alienation of U.S. allies and partners and disregard for global norms.

美国的危机与混乱正好印证了习近平对当前世界局势的核心判断——东升西降。中国强调特朗普政府疏远美国盟友和伙伴，并无视全球规范。

On social media, one popular hashtag read: “Big, Beautiful Bill will make 17 million people lose their health insurance.” Internet commenters also cheered on Elon Musk, who has described the bill as “insane.”

在社交媒体上，一个热门标签写道：“大而美法案将让1700万人失去医保”。网民们也为埃隆·马斯克的言论欢呼，他称该法案“疯狂”。

In contrast, Chinese analysts said, China has raised its debt levels, in part, to build infrastructure and to loan money to developing countries — spending that is geared toward expanding China’s influence.

相比之下，中国分析人士表示，中国提高债务水平部分是用于建设基础设施和向发展中国家贷款——这些支出旨在扩大中国的影响力。

China is also struggling with a growing mountain of debt because of borrowing by local governments, their investment vehicles and real estate developers.

中国同样也在应对不断增长的债务问题，这主要来自地方政府、融资平台以及房地产开发商的借贷。

Yao Yang, an economist at Peking University, was skeptical that China stood to gain from any disruption caused by Mr. Trump’s bill. He said the United States could continue to borrow for years to come as long as it remained the world’s biggest consumer market.

北京大学的经济学家姚洋对中国是否会因特朗普的法案带来的混乱而受益表示怀疑。他表示，只要美国仍是世界上最大的消费市场，就可以继续借贷多年。

“America’s financial dominance can’t be easily overturned, and the same goes for the dollar’s supremacy,” he said.

“美国的金融霸主地位也不是随意就可以被替代的。那连带的美元的霸主地位，也不是随意可以替代掉，”他说。

China Is Less Exposed to U.S. Debt

中国受美国债务的影响较小

Beijing has long complained that Washington has printed more money to serve its domestic needs without considering how it devalues the dollar, and, by extension, foreign countries’ holdings of U.S. assets.

北京长期诟病华盛顿滥发货币满足国内需求，却无视美元贬值，以及因此带来的海外持有美债资产的缩水。

But it has also been gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, from a peak of $1.3 trillion more than a decade ago, to about $750 billion now, investing instead in other assets like gold.

但中国也在逐步减持美债——从十多年前1.3万亿美元的峰值降至目前的约7500亿美元，转而投资于黄金等其他资产。

China is also invested in weakening what it calls the U.S. dollar’s hegemony as the world’s leading currency for trade.

中国也致力于削弱其所谓的“美元霸权”，即美元作为世界主要贸易货币的地位。

That power fuels the world’s dependency on American consumers, making major exporting nations like China “more submissive” to the United States because of the threats of tariffs, said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

位于北京的全球化智库理事长王辉耀表示，美元的这一地位加剧了世界对美国消费者的依赖，使得中国这样的主要出口国在面对关税威胁时”更为被动”。

“The United States is using the greenback and its large deficit financing to sustain its global power,” he said.

“美国正在利用美元和巨额赤字融资来维持其全球霸权，”他说。

President Trump late Friday said that the United States “pretty much has a deal” for an American company to acquire the U.S. branch of TikTok, adding that he intended to restart talks next week with China to approve the deal.

特朗普总统周五晚间表示，美国“已基本达成协议”，让一家本土公司收购TikTok的美国业务，并称他打算下周与中国重启谈判，以批准该协议。

“We’re going to start Monday or Tuesday talking to China,” Mr. Trump told reporters traveling on Air Force One on Friday night as it headed to Bedminster, N.J. “We think we probably have to get it approved by China. Not definitely, but probably.”

“我们将在周一或周二开始与中国谈判，”特朗普在周五晚间搭乘“空军一号”前往新泽西州贝德明斯特时对随行记者表示。“我们认为我们可能需要中国批准。不一定，但可能是这样。”

He added, “I think the deal is good for China, and it’s good for us. It’s money, it’s a lot of money.”

他补充说：“我认为这笔交易对中国有利，对我们也有利。这是钱，是一大笔钱。”

Mr. Trump did not say who the potential buyer was. The president said earlier in the week that he had found a buyer for the U.S. branch of TikTok, the popular Chinese-owned video app that faces a ban adopted by Congress over national security concerns. A 2024 law required that the app effectively be banned in the United States unless its parent company, ByteDance, sold it to a non-Chinese company. Congress was concerned that sensitive user data could end up in the hands of the Chinese government.

特朗普没有透露潜在收购方的身份。总统在本周早些时候曾表示，他已经为TikTok的美国业务找到了买家。TikTok是一款广受欢迎的中资视频应用，目前正面临美国国会因国家安全担忧而施加的禁令。一项2024年生效的法律规定，除非母公司字节跳动将TikTok出售给非中国公司，否则该应用将在美国被禁止。国会担心敏感的用户数据可能会落入中国政府手中。

It was not clear if the deal would comply with some of the requirements Congress adopted for a sale of TikTok, particularly if ByteDance chose not to share the app’s algorithm with the U.S. buyers. Private equity firms have been hesitant to invest in a deal without some form of indemnification.

目前尚不清楚这笔交易是否符合国会为TikTok出售设定的一些条件，尤其是在字节跳动拒绝向美国收购方提供算法的情况下。私募股权公司因为缺乏某种形式的担保而对该交易犹豫不决。

Mr. Trump has declined to enforce the law banning the app, which was passed by large bipartisan majorities and unanimously upheld by the Supreme Court. Shortly after being sworn in, Mr. Trump issued an executive order directing the Justice Department to suspend enforcement of the TikTok ban and has since repeatedly extended it. Pam Bondi, the attorney general, has told tech companies that Mr. Trump has the constitutional power to effectively set aside laws.

特朗普拒绝执行禁止该应用的法案。该法案在国会获得了两党广泛支持，在最高法院也得到了一致支持。在宣誓就任总统后不久，特朗普发布行政命令指示司法部暂停执行对TikTok的禁令，此后还多次延长暂停令。司法部长帕姆·邦迪已告知科技公司，特朗普具有宪法赋予的权力，可以有效搁置法律的执行。

Can you hear it — that loud roar coming from the East? It’s the sound of 1.4 billion Chinese laughing at us.

你听到从东方传来的巨响吗？那是14亿中国人嘲笑我们的声音。

The Chinese simply can’t believe their luck: that at the dawn of the electricity-guzzling era of artificial intelligence, the U.S. president and his party have decided to engage in one of the greatest acts of strategic self-harm imaginable. They have passed a giant bill that, among other craziness, deliberately undermines America’s ability to generate electricity through renewables — solar, battery and wind power in particular.

中国人简直不敢相信自己的运气：在耗电的人工智能时代即将到来之际，美国总统和他的政党堪称能想象到的最严重的战略自残了。他们通过的一项庞大的法案有着各种疯狂的内容，其中包括故意破坏美国通过可再生能源发电的能力，尤其是太阳能、电池和风能。

And why? Because they view those as “liberal” energy sources, even though today they are the quickest and cheapest ways to boost our electricity grid to meet the explosion of demand from A.I. data centers.

为什么？因为他们认为这些是“自由派”能源，尽管如今这些能源是促进我们的电网发展以满足人工智能数据中心激增需求的最快捷、最廉价的方式。

It is exactly the opposite of what China is doing. Indeed, Beijing may have to make July 4 its own national holiday going forward: American Electricity Dependence Day.You cannot make this up: Even Saudi Arabia is doubling down on solar power to meet the needs of the A.I. data centers it wants to recruit from the West, while Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” actually does just the opposite. It quickly phases out tax credits enjoyed by utility-scale solar and wind — as well as electric vehicle tax credits. This virtually guarantees that China will own the future of solar energy, wind power and electric cars and trucks, as well as autonomous vehicles.

这与中国的做法恰恰相反。事实上，北京可能要把7月4日定为自己的全国性节日才行——美国电力依赖日。这真是编都编不出的情节：就连沙特阿拉伯也在加倍投资太阳能，以满足其想从西方引进的人工智能数据中心的需求，而特朗普“大而美法案”实际上恰恰相反。该法案将迅速逐步取消公用事业规模的太阳能和风能享有的税收抵免，以及电动汽车的税收抵免。这几乎保证了中国将拥有太阳能、风能、电动汽车和卡车以及自动驾驶汽车的未来。

Thankfully, Trump and friends did keep until 2036 a major Biden-era tax credit for companies that build other emissions-free technologies like nuclear reactors, hydroelectric dams, geothermal plants and battery storage. The problem is that it can take up to 10 years to build a nuclear plant in America, and, as The Times reported, the bill added “complex restrictions” to the battery credits “that bar recipients from having ties to ‘prohibited foreign entities’ like China.’’ As a result, “some worry that the restrictions are so complicated that the credits could end up being unusable for many projects.”

值得庆幸的是，特朗普和他的朋友们确实将拜登时代的一项主要税收抵免政策保留到了2036年，该政策适用于建造其他零排放技术的公司，比如核反应堆、水电站、地热发电厂和电池储能系统。问题在于，在美国建造一座核电站可能需要长达10年的时间，而且，正如《纽约时报》报道的那样，该法案给电池抵免额度增加了“复杂的限制”，“禁止接受者与中国等‘被禁止的外国实体’有联系”。因此，“一些人担心，这些限制太过复杂，最终可能会导致很多项目无法使用抵免。”

In sum, this dog’s breakfast of a bill — rushed through without a single congressional hearing with independent energy experts or even one scientist — is sure to put at risk billions of dollars of investments in renewable energy, mostly in Republican states, and potentially kill the jobs of tens of thousands of U.S. workers. By the way, the bill also bans for 10 years a first-ever fee on excess methane emissions from oil and gas production, a key driver of global warming.

总而言之，这个乱七八糟的法案没有举行任何独立能源专家——甚至没有一位科学家——的听证会就匆匆通过了，肯定会危及可再生能源领域数十亿美元的投资（其中大部分是在共和党控制的州），并有可能使上万美国工人失去工作。顺便说一下，该法案还首次禁止对石油和天然气生产过程中排放的过量甲烷征收费用，为期10年，甲烷是全球变暖的主要驱动因素。

So, in one fell swoop, this bill will make your home hotter, your air-conditioning bill higher, your clean energy job scarcer, America’s auto industry weaker and China happier. How does that make sense?

因此，这一法案将使你的家更热，空调费用更高，清洁能源产业岗位更少，让美国汽车工业更弱，让中国更开心。这怎么说得通呢？

It doesn’t. And the person in America who knows that best is actually Elon Musk. It is really sad to me that Musk, who is without question one of America’s greatest manufacturing innovators — having started globally leading companies making electric vehicles, renewable rockets, battery storage and telecommunications satellites — has discredited himself with so many voters because of his dalliance with Trump and because of his Department of Government Efficiency’s capricious cuts to the government work force. Because of that, many will not understand the vital truth that Musk has been shouting to his fellow Americans: Trump’s bill is “utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”

说不通。在美国，最了解这一点的人实际上是埃隆·马斯克。毫无疑问，马斯克是美国最伟大的制造业创新者之一，他创立了全球领先的公司，制造电动汽车、可回收火箭、电池存储和通讯卫星，但由于他与特朗普的暧昧关系，以及他的政府效率部反复无常地裁撤政府工作人员，他在这么多选民心目中失去了信誉，这让我感到非常难过。正因为如此，许多人不会理解马斯克一直在向他的美国同胞大声疾呼的一个至关重要的事实：特朗普的法案“完全是疯狂和具有破坏性的。它给过去的行业提供了援助，却严重损害了未来的行业。”

This is not complicated and this is what China knows: There has never been a more intimate connection than there is now between a nation’s ability to generate huge amounts of electricity at affordable prices (and in the cleanest way possible) and its ability to develop A.I. engines that consume huge amounts of electricity as they learn and generate answers that could give us the tools we need to cure diseases, discover new materials and even produce the holy grail of cheap, clean, climate-saving fusion energy.

道理并不复杂，中国就很清楚：一个国家以可承受的价格（并以最清洁的方式）生产大量电力的能力，与其开发人工智能引擎的能力之间的联系从来没有像现在这样紧密。在学习和产生答案的过程中，人工智能引擎会消耗大量电力，而这些答案可以为我们提供治疗疾病、发现新材料，甚至廉价、清洁、拯救气候的核聚变能源这一圣杯所需的工具。

To put it differently, there has never been a more intimate connection between the amount of cheap, clean electricity a nation can generate for A.I. models and its future economic and military might.

换句话说，一个国家为人工智能模型生产的廉价、清洁电力的数量，与这个国家未来的经济和军事实力之间，从未有过如此密切的联系。

That is why Musk and many others find it so “insane and destructive” that Trump and his G.O.P. cult have rejected an energy policy of “all of the above as clean as possible as fast as possible” — oil, natural gas, coal, wind, hydro, nuclear, solar, geothermal, hydrogen — that is always working to phase out the dirtiest for the cleanest, the way China often has. Instead, Trump has chosen instead to kneecap America’s renewable energy industry the way China has not. The president has even called clean energy tax credits a “scam,” saying he’d rather spend the money anywhere else. This is industrial-scale foolishness.

正因为如此，马斯克和其他许多人认为，特朗普和他的共和党狂热信徒们的能源政策如此“疯狂和具有破坏性”，特朗普等人拒绝了一项“以尽可能快的速度尽可能清洁地使用所有能源”（包括石油、天然气、煤炭、风能、水力、核能、太阳能、地热、氢）的能源政策，该政策一直在努力淘汰最脏的能源，让最清洁的能源取而代之，就像中国经常做的那样。特朗普反其道而行之，选择去削弱美国的可再生能源产业。总统甚至称清洁能源税收抵免为“骗局”，说他宁愿把钱花在其他地方。这真是蠢到天上去了。

I was struck by a quote from an energy expert in The Wall Street Journal the other day. “The big-picture outlook for energy is we are going to be less competitive because of this law,” said Nick Nigro of Atlas Public Policy. “Ten years from now we could look back on this moment as the time in which the U.S. pulled back and essentially lost the transition to clean energy.”

前几天，《华尔街日报》上一位能源专家的话让我吃了一惊。“能源行业的整体前景是，由于这项法律，我们的竞争力将下降，”阿特拉斯公共政策公司的尼克·尼格罗表示。“十年后，当我们回顾这一时刻时，就会发现美国在向清洁能源转型的过程中后退了，基本上是失败了。”

Alas, truth be told, Democratic Party progressives helped to make Trump and his party this foolish on energy with their own crazy fantasies. Too many of them behaved as if we could go cold turkey from a fossil fuel economy to a clean and green one, without scaling cleaner fuels to bridge the transition, like natural gas and nuclear, and without loosening permitting standards for more transmission lines to get clean power from the middle of the desert to the cities where it is needed.

唉，说实话，特朗普及其政党在能源方面如此愚蠢，也跟民主党进步派自己不着调的空想有关。进步人士中有太多人表现得好像我们可以突然从化石燃料经济转变为清洁和绿色经济，而不需要推广天然气和核能等更清洁的燃料来过渡，也不放松允许更多输电线路的标准，将清洁电力从沙漠中部输送到需要电力的城市。

Few Americans understand how far ahead of us China already is in this realm and moving farther ahead, and faster, every day.

很少有美国人了解，中国在这个领域已经领先我们很多，而且每天都在以更快的速度向前迈进。

Consider this snapshot: In 2000 China produced just over 1,300 terawatt hours of electricity while the U.S. produced nearly 3,800 (a terawatt is equal to a million megawatts). Fast forward to today, China produces over 10,000 terawatt hours while the U.S., since 2000, has added only 500 — an increase of only 13 percent in two and a half decades. Much of China’s electricity growth originally came from expanded coal-fired generation, but in recent years it has been driven by expanding hydro, solar, wind and battery sources, which are easier, cheaper and quicker to build and also help the climate.

看看这个简述：2000年，中国的发电量刚刚超过1300太瓦时，而美国的发电量接近3800太瓦时（1太瓦等于100万兆瓦）。时至今日，中国的发电量超过10000太瓦时，而美国自2000年以来只增加了500太瓦时，在25年里只增加了13%。中国电力的增长最初主要来自燃煤发电的扩张，但近年来则是由水力、太阳能、风能和电池能源的扩大所推动的，这些能源的建设更容易、更便宜、更快捷，还有助于气候保护。

As a recent article from Shanghai in the The Financial Times put it: “China is on its way to becoming the world’s first ‘electrostate,’ with a growing share of its energy coming from electricity and an economy increasingly driven by clean technologies. It offers China a strategic buffer from trade decoupling and rising geopolitical tensions with the U.S.”

正如《金融时报》最近一篇发自上海的文章所言：“中国正在成为世界上第一个‘电力化国家’，电力在能源中所占的比重越来越大，经济越来越多地由清洁技术驱动。它为中国提供了一个战略缓冲，使其免受贸易脱钩和与美国地缘政治紧张局势加剧的影响。”

As for Trump’s goal of making America globally energy dominant during his term of office, his bill just made that impossible. There is no path to energy dominance in the next five years without renewables.

特朗普的目标是在他的任期内让美国在全球能源领域占据主导地位，但他的法案让这一目标不可能实现。如果没有可再生能源，就无法在未来五年占据能源主导地位。

Let’s say you want to generate additional electricity for more data centers just through natural gas today. Even if you have an abundance of gas, as America does, you need more giant turbines to convert the gas to electricity. If you ask the major manufacturers of those turbines — GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power — they will likely tell you that they will be very happy to deliver you one, but you will be lucky to have it installed by 2030. That is how long their backlogs are. And there is no telling what that turbine will cost with all of Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs.

假设你今天决定只用天然气来产生额外的电力，驱动更多的数据中心。即使像美国这样拥有丰富的天然气的国家，也需要更多的巨型涡轮机来将天然气转化为电能。如果你问这些涡轮机的主要制造商——通用Vernova、西门子能源和三菱电力——他们很可能会告诉你，他们很乐意为你提供一台涡轮机，但能在2030年之前安装好就算很不错了。他们的订单积压就有这么多。在特朗普新的钢铝关税下，天知道这样的涡轮机成本是多少。

By contrast, you can build and put online a new solar farm with battery storage in Texas in just 18 months.

相比之下，你可以花18个月的时间，在得克萨斯州建造一个新的太阳能发电厂，并将其投入使用。

“During the past quarter, Texas took the lead in clean power installations, adding an impressive 2,596 MW of new utility-scale solar, wind and storage capacity,” reads an October research report from Texas A&M, referring to megawatts of power. “This milestone marks the first time Texas has surpassed California to become the top solar state in the nation.’”

“在过去的一个季度里，得克萨斯州在清洁能源安装方面处于领先，新增公用事业规模的太阳能、风能和储能装机容量达到了了不起的2596兆瓦，”得克萨斯农工大学10月份的一份研究报告写道。“这一里程碑标志着得克萨斯州首次超过加利福尼亚州，成为美国最大的太阳能州。”

A Texas energy expert, Doug Lewin, posted last week that the Texas grid, known as ERCOT, recently reported that the state had added 10,000 megawatts of power in just the last year — most of it from supercheap solar power with battery storage, so energy can be distributed at night when the sun is not shining. As a result, Texas has seen a drop in brownouts on its grid because of more renewables combined with bigger storage batteries. Texas can still deploy solar-plus-batteries in the future, but now the electricity will cost consumers a lot more thanks to the Trump bill.

得克萨斯州能源专家道格·勒温上周发布消息称，该州电网最近报告称，仅去年一年就增加了1万兆瓦的电力——其中大部分来自超廉价的太阳能发电，并配有电池储能装置，这样就可以在夜间阳光不充足时分配能源。因此，由于更多的可再生能源与更大的储能电池相结合，得克萨斯州电网的限电现象有所减少。得州未来仍然可以部署太阳能加电池，但现在，由于特朗普的法案，消费者的用电成本将大大增加。

If that higher monthly electricity bill bothers you, call Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He assuredly knows better, but like every other sycophant in Trump’s cabinet he seems to have just told the boss what he wanted to hear. As Wright must know, solar energy plus storage batteries made up 81 percent of the new electricity capacity added in the U.S. in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Now Trump’s idiotic bill will slash that amount.

如果每月电费支出增加令你烦恼，请致电能源部长克里斯·赖特。他当然更清楚这些情况，但就像特朗普内阁中的其他阿谀奉承者一样，他似乎只是对老板说了老板想听的话。赖特一定知道，根据美国能源情报署的数据，2024年美国新增电力容量中，太阳能和储能电池占81%。现在特朗普的愚蠢法案将削减这一份额。

The result for Americans? The research firm Energy Innovation, whose peer-reviewed energy modeling is widely respected, projects that Trump’s effort to diminish America’s renewable energy industry will cause wholesale electric power prices to increase roughly 50 percent by 2035, and that cumulative annual consumer energy costs will increase more than $16 billion by 2030. It also projects that some 830,000 renewable energy jobs will be lost or not created by 2030.

美国人会得到什么样的结果呢？研究公司能源创新拥有广受推崇的同行评议能源模型，该公司预测，特朗普削弱美国可再生能源产业的举措，将导致到2035年批发电价上涨约50%，到2030年，消费者每年的累计能源成本将增加逾160亿美元。报告还预测，到2030年将失去或无法创造约83万个可再生能源工作岗位。

For all of these reasons, I am certain there are only two political parties in the world today cheering the passage of this bill: Trump’s Republican Party and the Chinese Communist Party — because nothing is more destined to make China great again than Trump’s “big, beautiful, America surrenders the future of electricity to Beijing” bill.

基于所有这些原因，我确信今天世界上只有两个政党为这项法案的通过欢呼：特朗普的共和党和中国共产党——因为没有什么比特朗普的“把电力未来拱手让给北京的大而美”法案更加注定能让中国再次伟大了。

A new waterfront resort opened for business this week in North Korea with P.R. hype — but without the foreign visitors that the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, hoped would one day arrive with tourist cash to offset financially punishing sanctions.

朝鲜本周高调宣传新海滨度假区开业，但未迎来外国游客，朝鲜领导人金正恩曾希望有朝一日通过游客带来旅游收入，缓解严厉经济制裁。

On Thursday, state media reported on North Korean families crowding a 2.5-mile-long scenic sandy beach on its central east coast, which began accepting tourists two days earlier. “The joy and optimism of the tourists were overflowing everywhere, and the song of happiness resounded in the windows of bright lodgings,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.

周四，朝鲜官方媒体报道称，朝鲜家庭游客挤满中部东海岸一个约四公里长的美丽海滩，该海滩于两天前开始接待游客。朝鲜官方的朝中社称：“到处洋溢着游客的喜悦和乐观，欢快的歌声在明亮的住所窗前回荡。”

The resort, which is called Wonsan Kalma and can accommodate 20,000 people, is the most ambitious among the seafront or mountainside spa and ski resorts Mr. Kim has been building to attract foreign tourists. Mr. Kim, his wife and his daughter attended a ceremony in late June marking the completion of the ​facility.

该度假村名为元山葛麻，可容纳2万人，是金正恩为吸引外国游客而建造的海滨或山边水疗滑雪度假村中最雄心勃勃的一个。金正恩及妻女出席了6月底举行的竣工仪式。

Mr. Kim began promoting tourism after the United Nations imposed severe sanctions in 2017 that banned all of ​his country’s main exports, including coal and textiles. The sanctions were designed to strip North Korea of the means ​of earn​ing foreign currency to finance its nuclear and missile programs. But they did not affect tourism, which Mr. Kim saw as a new source of sorely needed foreign currency.

在联合国于2017年对朝鲜实施严厉制裁，禁止其出口包括煤炭和纺织品在内的所有主要产品后，金正恩开始推动旅游业的发展。制裁旨在切断其核计划和导弹计划的资金来源，但旅游业未受制裁影响，金正恩将该行业视为亟需的外汇新来源。

Mr. Kim’s aims were best displayed in the transformation of Kalma Beach. North Korea used to fill it with pieces of artillery during military drills. In recent years,​ however, Mr. Kim has lined the beach with ​newly built water parks and multistory resort hotels. South Korean media nicknamed Kalma Beach “North Korea’s Waikiki.”

葛麻海滩的改造工程堪称金正恩意图的最佳注脚。朝鲜曾在军事演习期间在这里摆满大炮。但近年来，金正恩在海滩上新建了水上公园和多层度假酒店，韩国媒体称葛麻海滩为“朝鲜的威基基”（威基基是夏威夷的著名海滩——译注）。

周二，来自朝鲜国内的游客抵达元山葛麻。但中国尚未批准公民前往朝鲜旅游。

But ​Mr. Kim’s tourism plans did not go as​ he had hoped. The pandemic led North Korea to shut its borders and dried up a stream of tourists from China that had numbered 300,000 a year. Mr. Kim’s new resort complexes remained half-finished or empty during that period. The country reopened its borders in 2023.

但是，金正恩的旅游发展计划没有如愿开展。疫情导致朝鲜关闭国门，每年约30万人次的中国游客来源也因此枯竭。在此期间，金正恩新建的度假村一直处于未竣工或空置状态。朝鲜于2023年重新开放边境。

In recent months, visits by hundreds of tourists from Russia have reflected warming ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, after North Korea supplied much-needed personnel and weaponry to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine.

近几个月来，数百名俄罗斯游客的到访反映出平壤和莫斯科之间的关系正在升温。此前，朝鲜为俄罗斯对抗乌克兰的战争提供了急需的人员和武器。

But China has yet to allow its citizens to travel to North Korea. Beijing is widely believed to be wary that North Korea will grow too close to Russia, which could reduce its leverage over a recalcitrant Pyongyang.

但中国至今未批准公民前往朝鲜旅游。外界普遍认为，北京担心朝鲜与俄罗斯走得太近，这可能会削弱其对难以驯服的朝鲜的影响力。

South Korea — the only other country that shares a border with North Korea — stopped sending tourists ​to the North in 2008, when it closed a joint inter-Korean tourism complex.

韩国是除中国外唯一与朝鲜接壤的国家。2008年，韩国关闭了一个朝韩联合旅游园区，停止向朝鲜输送游客。

On ​Thursday, North Korea’s state media released photos showing​ North Korean families bathing​, water​ skiing​, riding water slides and playing volleyball in the sand, as well as children splashing in the water with swimming tubes. But no foreign tourists were in sight.

周四，朝鲜官方媒体发布的照片显示，朝鲜家庭在沙滩上沐浴、滑水、玩滑水道和打排球，还有孩子们拿着游泳圈戏水。但是看不到外国游客。

​Russian tourists were expected to visit the beach over the summer​, South Korean officials said. But their numbers would be small, they said, given limited transportation ​options in North Korea (Kalma is about 130 miles, or 210 kilometers, from Pyongyang) and poor road conditions​ between the Russian border and Kalma Beach.

韩国官员表示，预计今年夏天将有俄罗斯游客前往该海滩。但他们指出，考虑到朝鲜的交通选择有限（葛麻距离平壤约210公里），而且俄朝边境和葛麻海滩之间的道路状况不佳，因此游客不会很多。

In his first term, President Trump forced companies to kick their dependence on China. Now he is pressing countries to squeeze China out of their supply chains.

特朗普总统在他的第一个任期里曾强迫企业戒除对中国的依赖。现在，他正在向世界各国施压，把中国从它们的供应链中挤出去。

A preliminary trade pact between Vietnam and the United States announced on Wednesday is the most significant step so far toward that goal. Although the details are sparse, Vietnamese exports to the United States will face a 20 percent tariff, less than a much higher rate that Mr. Trump had threatened.

越南与美国周三宣布达成初步贸易协议，这是向这个目标迈出的迄今为止最重要的一步。虽然公布的细节不多，但有一点已明确：越南对美国的出口将面临20%的关税，远低于特朗普此前威胁施加的税率。

But notably, the deal would put a 40 percent tariff on any export from Vietnam classified as a transshipment, or goods that originated in another country and were merely passed through Vietnam.

协议中值得注意的一点是，将对来自越南、被归类为转口贸易的出口商品征收40%的关税，这些商品原产于另一国家，只是经越南转运。

The penalty aims at China, which has used Vietnam and neighboring countries to circumvent American tariffs on its goods. And it could become a feature of U.S. trade deals with other Southeast Asian governments as they try to avert sky-high tariffs that take effect on Wednesday.

这项惩罚性措施针对的是中国，中国一直在利用越南和其他邻国来规避美国对中国商品征收的关税。而且，随着其他东南亚国家政府正试图避免下周三生效的高额关税，这种条款可能会成为美国与这些国家达成的贸易协定中的一个特点。

Mr. Trump’s trade negotiators are pushing Vietnam’s export oriented neighbors like Indonesia to reduce how much Chinese content is in their supply chains. They are asking the government of Thailand to screen incoming foreign investment, hoping to stop Chinese businesses from moving into the country. They are even pressuring some countries to consider export controls of technology like semiconductors.

特朗普的贸易谈判代表们正在推动越南的出口导向型邻国（如印度尼西亚）减少供应链中的中国产品含量。他们要求泰国政府审查外来投资，希望阻止中国企业进入该国。他们甚至向一些国家施压，要求它们考虑对半导体等技术采取出口管制措施。

“The Trump administration is saying, ‘We need to see strategic decoupling if you are going to be a trade partner with the U.S.,’” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm. “The question is, will countries agree to that?”

“特朗普政府正在说，‘如果你们想在将来继续当美国的贸易伙伴的话，我们需要看到战略性的脱钩。’”地缘政治咨询公司APAC Advisors的首席执行官史蒂夫·奥肯说。“问题是，世界各国同意这样做吗？”

The U.S. efforts to sequester China heightens the vulnerabilities faced by countries in Southeast Asia, a strategically important region for Beijing and already on the frontline of China’s domination of global trade and manufacturing. On Thursday, China’s commerce ministry said it was “conducting an assessment” of the U.S.-Vietnam agreement, adding that it firmly opposed any deal that came “at the expense of China’s interest” and would “take countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

美国孤立中国的努力加剧了东南亚国家面临的脆弱性。这个对北京具有重要战略意义的地区本就处于中国主导全球贸易与制造业的前沿。中国商务部周四表示正在对美国与越南达成的贸易协议“开展评估”，还表示，中国坚决反对任何国家“以牺牲中方利益为手段达成交易，如果出现这种情况，中方将坚决予以反制，维护自身正当权益”。

The trade terms that the United States and Vietnam have so far agreed to will also hinge on how they are defined — for example, how much Chinese inputs will be allowed in Vietnamese exports, and how they will be enforced.

美国与越南目前已达成的贸易条款最终效力取决于条款的界定标准，例如越南的出口产品中允许含有的中国原材料比例上限，以及具体的执行机制。

Vietnam had everything to lose going into trade talks with the United States. Mr. Trump threatened the country with an import tax of 46 percent on its goods, sending shock waves through industries like footwear, garment and electronics that have come to depend on the country as an alternative to China.

越南在与美国进行贸易谈判之初面临着损失惨重的可能。特朗普曾威胁对越南商品征收46%的关税，令鞋类、服装和电子等将越南作为中国替代方案的行业大为震惊。

越南的一家服装厂。越南向美国出口的产品将面临20%的关税，低于特朗普总统曾威胁征收的税率。

The uncertainty caused by Mr. Trump’s threat of tariffs was weighing on Vietnamese businesses.

特朗普的关税威胁带来的不确定性给越南企业造成压力。

A 20 percent tariff was not anyone’s best-case scenario, said Tran Quang, an executive at a home fragrance company that exports nearly all of its products to the United States. “But it is not so bad,” he said.

20%的关税不是所有人都想看到的最佳方案，家用香氛公司的高管陈光（音）说，这家公司的几乎所有产品都出口美国。“但也不算太糟，”他说。

He added that he supports the steeper duty on transshipment because it could help local Vietnamese businesses facing unfair competition from Chinese companies that have invested in Vietnam to escape tariffs.

他同时表示，支持对转运产品征收更高的关税，因为那会有助于越南的本土企业，它们面临着为规避美国关税来越南投资的中国企业的不公平竞争。

“There are a lot of small Chinese guys who come to Vietnam just to relabel their products before exporting to the U.S.,” he said.

“有很多中国小企业，它们来越南，只是为了给产品换个标签，然后将其出口到美国，”他说。

Trade and investment from Chinese companies has helped bolster economic growth in Vietnam and the region, but Southeast Asia is struggling to beat back the torrent of goods from China that are putting domestic companies out of business. In recent years, with China’s economy threatened by a real estate crisis, the government has heavily subsidized factories leading to a surge in Chinese exports around the world.

虽然来自中资企业的贸易和投资助推了越南及周边地区的经济增长，但东南亚地区也在努力抵挡来自中国的商品洪流，一些本土企业已在洪流中倒下。近年来，由于中国的经济增长受到房地产危机的威胁，政府通过重金补贴制造业导致出口产品涌向世界各地。

But limitations on China’s trade in the region risk setting off chain reactions that could damage Southeast Asian countries.

但对中国在东南亚地区的贸易进行限制可能会引发损害东南亚国家利益的连锁反应。

The lack of information so far released about the Vietnam deal make it impossible to fully gauge its impact, experts said. Transshipment could refer to products that originate in China. It could also include things that are made in Vietnam but have a certain percentage of Chinese parts.

专家们说，目前越美贸易协议的细节尚不明确，因此无法对其影响进行全面评估。转运产品可能指的是原产于中国的产品，也可能包括在越南制造但含有一定比例中国零部件的产品。

But if the limits on Chinese components end up being strict, American companies could move their production out of Vietnam, said Matt Priest, chief executive of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a trade group.

但如果最终的结果是严格限制使用来自中国的零部件的话，美国公司会将生产迁出越南，贸易团体美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会的首席执行官马特·普里斯特说。

河内老城区的一个鞋店。特朗普威胁对越南商品征收46%的关税，这给越南的鞋类、服装和电子等行业带来了冲击。

“If it’s too onerous or difficult to comply, companies won’t use the opportunity to grow sourcing in Vietnam,” he said. “They may even head back to China if it’s price competitive.”

“如果协议过于繁琐或难以遵守，企业不会把其作为扩大在越南采购的机会，”他说。“它们甚至也许会回到中国，如果那里的价格更有竞争力的话。”

The pact with Vietnam also leaves uncertainty for businesses as they wait to see what kind of tariffs and restrictions on China other Southeast Asian countries agree to in potential deals with the Trump administration.

与越南达成协议也给企业带来了不确定性，因为它们正在观望其他东南亚国家与特朗普政府达成的潜在协议中会有什么样的关税，以及针对中国的限制措施。

The restrictions on the amount of Chinese content in exported products also places a burden on local customs officials who have never been asked to scrutinize exports so closely, raising questions about how effective they will be. Some countries have even discussed setting up entirely different supply chains for the United States.

对出口产品中包含的中国成分进行量化限制也给当地的海关关员带来负担，他们以前从未被要求对出口商品进行如此严格的溯源审查，让人对监管效能存疑。一些国家甚至考虑为出口美国的产品建立完全不同的供应链。

Washington also risks pushing some countries that are deeply integrated with China’s economy into Beijing’s arms.

华盛顿方面还有可能把一些与中国经济深度融合的国家推向北京的怀抱。

Many Asian governments are concerned about how China could respond to deals that seek to isolate Chinese firms. Beijing has shown that it is willing to take increasingly aggressive retaliatory measures like boycotting products and restricting critical minerals that its neighbors depend on. It has also turned to ratcheting up tensions in the South China Sea, where it has made military claims to much of the waterway.

许多亚洲国家政府担心中国会对试图孤立中国企业的贸易协议如何反应。中国政府已展示出采取越来越富攻击性反制措施的意愿，例如抵制邻国产品，限制向邻国出口其依赖的关键矿产。中国政府还采取了加剧南中国海紧张局势的做法，并使用军事手段加强了对南中国海大部分水域的领土主张。

“Politically we have to tread carefully between the two superpowers,” said Pavida Pananond, professor of International Business at Thammasat University in Thailand. “China is a very important economic power, not just as an importer of goods but a source of investment and destination for exports.”

“从政治的角度来看，我们需要在这两个超级大国之间谨慎行事，”泰国法政大学国际商务学教授帕维达·帕南德说。“中国是一个非常重要的经济大国，它不仅是进口商品来源地，也是投资来源地和出口商品目的地。”

Southeast Asian countries have taken their own steps to tighten monitoring and enforcement of transshipment in recent weeks, providing some insight into what they might agree to in their own trade pacts with Washington.

东南亚国家已在最近几周纷纷采取措施，加强对转运产品的监督执法，为它们与美国达成的贸易协议中可能有什么样的条款提供了一些线索。

In Thailand, where Mr. Trump has threatened 36 percent tariffs, the government has estimated that its actions to closely scrutinize exports for transshipment could reduce its exports to the United States by $15 billion, equivalent to one third of Thailand’s trade surplus with Washington last year. It has also promised to look more closely at foreign investments in areas like electric vehicles where Chinese companies have invested a lot of money to bring their own suppliers into Thailand.

特朗普威胁要对泰国产品征收36%的关税。泰国政府估计，严格审查转运出口可能导致泰国对美国的出口额减少150亿美元，相当于去年泰国与美国贸易顺差的三分之一。泰国已承诺对电动汽车等行业的外国投资进行更严格的审查，中国企业为了将自己的供应商带到泰国，已在这些行业投入巨资。

曼谷车展上的比亚迪。

Authorities in Malaysia and Indonesia have tightened export rules to ensure that shipments to the United States are accurately documented. Both countries also centralized the authority to issue of certificates for exports.

马来西亚和印度尼西亚的政府已加强了出口管理，以确保出口美国的货物有准确的文件记录。这两个国家还集中了出口许可证的签发权。

Even before any trade deals are hammered out, the Trump administration is already reshaping how the region views China.

甚至在敲定任何贸易协议之前，特朗普政府已在改变东南亚地区对中国的看法。

“The idea is to squeeze China out,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, an organization that focuses on trade.

“目的是把中国挤出去，”欣里奇基金会的贸易政策负责人黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说，该组织专门研究贸易问题。

But for countries like Vietnam, going along with what the United States is geopolitically risky.

但对越南等国家来说，顺从美国的要求有地缘政治危险。

“It’s a gamble all around to see how the U.S., China and companies in your country will respond,” Ms. Elms said.

“这是一场多方面的赌博，看美国、中国，以及其他国家的企业将如何响应，”埃尔姆斯说。

President Trump has said his policies will revive auto manufacturing in the United States. But Republican attacks on electric vehicles could do just the opposite, some industry experts say, by surrendering leadership in an emerging technology.

特朗普总统曾表示，他的政策将重振美国的汽车制造业。但一些行业专家表示，共和党对电动汽车的攻击可能会适得其反，让美国放弃在新兴技术领域的领先地位。

China already has a formidable head start in electric vehicles and the batteries and minerals needed to produce them. Companies like BYD, SAIC and Geely produced 70 percent of the electric cars sold globally in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. Automakers in the United States produced just 5 percent.

中国在电动汽车以及生产电动汽车所需的电池和矿物方面已经有了巨大的领先优势。根据国际能源机构的数据，在2024年，比亚迪、上汽和吉利等公司生产的电动汽车占全球销量的70%。美国汽车制造商的产品只占5%。

Tesla is the only American company that ranks among the world’s 10 largest electric vehicle makers. General Motors and Ford Motor are minor players. Even Tesla, which made electric cars mainstream and held the No. 1 spot for several years, has been overtaken by BYD and Geely, according to SNE Research, a South Korean research firm.

特斯拉是唯一一家跻身全球十大电动汽车制造商之列的美国公司。通用汽车和福特汽车只是配角。根据韩国研究公司SNE Research的数据，即使是让电动汽车成为主流并连年占据第一位的特斯拉也已被比亚迪和吉利超越。

The more electric vehicles that Chinese companies make, the more difficult it will be for U.S. carmakers to catch up. The Chinese companies can spread the costs of developing new technology across more vehicles. They can buy parts at more favorable prices and reap other benefits of the economies of scale that are critical to success in the auto industry.

中国公司生产的电动汽车越多，美国汽车制造商就越难赶上。中国公司可以将开发新技术的成本分摊到更多的汽车上。他们可以以更优惠的价格购买零部件，并从规模经济中获得其他好处，这对汽车行业的成功至关重要。

One in five new cars sold worldwide is electric, and the percentage is increasing. That is one of the reasons that U.S. automakers have steadily lost ground in Asia, Europe and Latin America in recent years. Many consumers in those countries are instead buying cars from Chinese companies that offer a wide array of affordable electric and hybrid vehicles.

在全球，每售出五辆新车就有一辆是电动汽车，而且这个比例还在上升。这也是近年来美国汽车制造商在亚洲、欧洲和拉丁美洲节节败退的原因之一。这些国家的许多消费者转而从中国公司购买汽车，这些公司提供各种价格适宜的电动汽车和混合动力汽车。

G.M. and Ford now earn a large majority of their profits in the United States. Analysts say their sales in the rest of the world could be reduced to rounding errors in the coming years based on current trends.

通用和福特目前在美国赚取大部分利润。分析师表示，根据目前的趋势，未来几年它们在世界其他地区的销售额可能会减少到可以忽略不计的程度。

“The United States needs to decide if they want an auto industry that can compete globally,” said Greg Dotson, an associate professor at the University of Oregon School of Law and former Democratic chief counsel for the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. “It’s just clear that’s the way the world is moving.”

“美国需要决定，他们是否想要一个能够在全球竞争的汽车工业，”俄勒冈大学法学院副教授、参议院环境与公共工程委员会前民主党首席法律顾问格雷格·多森说。“很明显，这就是世界发展的方向。”

The budget and policy bill passed by the Senate Tuesday would slash Biden-era measures designed to give G.M., Ford and other domestic manufacturers a fighting chance of surviving Chinese competition.

参议院周二通过的预算和政策法案将削减拜登时代的措施，这些措施旨在给通用、福特和其他国内制造商创造一个在中国竞争中生存下来的反击机会。

The bill eliminates tax credits of up to $7,500 for electric vehicle buyers, claws back money for fast chargers and phases out subsidies for companies that set up battery factories and lithium mines.

法案取消了对电动汽车购买者高达7500美元的税收抵免，收回了用于快速充电技术的资金，并逐步取消了对建立电池厂和锂矿的公司的补贴。

Killing those programs would endanger more than $200 billion that auto companies, battery makers, mining companies and others have invested to create a U.S. electric vehicle supply chain not dependent on China, according to data compiled by Jay Turner, a professor of environmental studies at Wellesley College, and his students.

根据韦尔斯利学院环境研究教授杰·特纳和他的学生汇编的数据，取消这些项目将危及汽车公司、电池制造商、矿业公司和其他公司为建立一个不依赖中国的美国电动汽车供应链而投资的逾2000亿美元。

“The government doesn’t seem to be interested in the competitiveness of the auto industry,” said Jody Freeman, director of the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard Law School. “Who’s going to buy our cars?”

“政府似乎对汽车工业的竞争力不感兴趣，”哈佛法学院环境与能源法项目主任乔迪·弗里曼说。“谁会买我们的车？”

Already some manufacturing projects have slowed. AESC, a Chinese-owned battery maker, has paused construction of a factory in South Carolina that was expected to supply BMW and other carmakers. The delay will make it harder for electric vehicle makers to buy batteries made by American workers. Just two Chinese companies, CATL and BYD, account for more than half of global battery production, and China is the main source of battery materials like refined graphite and lithium.

一些制造项目已经放慢了速度。中国电池制造商远景动力已暂停在南卡罗来纳州建设一家工厂，该工厂原计划为宝马和其他汽车制造商供货。这一延迟将使电动汽车制造商更难购买美国工人生产的电池。仅宁德时代和比亚迪两家中国公司就占据了全球电池产量的一半以上，而且中国是精炼石墨和锂等电池材料的主要来源。

Republicans argue that Democratic efforts to subsidize electric vehicles mainly helped affluent car buyers. They also argue the cars are inferior to gasoline models. It’s true that U.S. electric vehicle sales have been modest compared with sales elsewhere. Including Canada and Mexico, they grew 3 percent this year through May, compared with the same period in 2024, according to Rho Motion, a research firm. Growth was 33 percent in China and 27 percent in Europe.

共和党人认为，民主党补贴电动汽车的努力主要帮助了富裕的购车者。他们还认为电动车不如汽油车。的确，与其他地区相比，美国的电动汽车销量并不算高。根据研究公司Rho Motion的数据，与2024年同期相比，包括加拿大和墨西哥在内，今年截至5月的销量与2024年同期相比增长了3%。中国和欧洲的增长率分别为33%和27%。

“No president has taken a greater interest in restoring the dominance of the American auto industry than President Trump,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in an email. “Instead of doling out inefficient subsidies, the Trump administration is deploying a multifaceted approach of rapid deregulation, tariffs and other pro-growth policies.”

“没有哪位总统比特朗普总统更关心恢复美国汽车工业的主导地位，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在电子邮件中表示。“特朗普政府没有发放效率低下的补贴，而是采取了多方面的措施，包括快速放松管制、征收关税和其他促增长政策。”

特斯拉曾连续数年稳居电动汽车销量榜首，如今已被中国汽车制造商比亚迪和吉利超越。

Electric vehicles remain more expensive than gas and hybrid cars in the United States. Despite improvements, the fast charging network remains spotty. China has a much denser charging network, and many electric vehicles cost less than comparable gasoline-powered cars because of intense competition and more efficient manufacturing.

在美国，电动汽车仍然比汽油和混合动力汽车贵。快速充电网络尽管有所改进，但仍然不完善。中国的充电网络要密集得多，而且由于竞争激烈和生产效率更高，许多电动汽车的成本低于同等汽油动力汽车。

But auto executives are nearly unanimous that, even in the United States, electric and hybrid vehicles will eventually displace gasoline-powered vehicles. Sales of cars that run solely on fossil fuels have been declining for a decade, accounting for less than 74 percent of the U.S. market in the first quarter of this year, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the main lobbying group for most major carmakers.

但汽车行业的高管们几乎一致认为，即使在美国，电动和混合动力汽车最终也将取代汽油动力汽车。根据汽车创新联盟的数据，纯化石燃料汽车的销量十年来一直在下降，今年第一季度占美国市场的份额不到74%。该联盟是大多数主要汽车制造商的主要游说团体。

Consumers are increasingly choosing hybrids, which have electric motors and gasoline engines, or pure electric vehicles. In hybrid technology, U.S. automakers are behind the Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda. Many auto experts believe that prices for fully electric vehicles will fall as the technology improves and that, within a few years, they will be cheaper than cars that run on gasoline.

越来越多的消费者选择有电动机和汽油发动机的混合动力车或纯电动汽车。在混合动力技术方面，美国汽车制造商落后于日本汽车制造商丰田和本田。许多汽车专家认为，随着技术的进步，全电动汽车的价格将会下降，在几年内，它们将比汽油车便宜。

Automakers say they remain committed to electric vehicles. “We have some of the best and most successful E.V.s on the market today,” Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, told investors and analysts in May. She cited the Chevrolet Equinox EV, which dealers are offering for lease at less than $400 a month. The Equinox can travel more than 300 miles between charges.

汽车制造商表示，他们仍然致力于电动汽车的发展。“我们拥有当今市场上最好、最成功的一些电动汽车，”通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉今年5月对投资者和分析师说。她以雪佛兰Equinox EV为例，经销商提供的租赁价格不到每月400美元。Equinox每次充电可以行驶约500公里。

But Ms. Barra added, “To protect our brands, we have moderated E.V. production to ensure that we stay aligned with the consumer demand to avoid the heavy discounts our competitors offer.”

但巴拉补充说，“为了保护我们的品牌，我们已经放缓了电动汽车的生产，以确保我们与消费者的需求保持一致，避免我们的竞争对手提供的大幅折扣。”

Ford continues to work on manufacturing complexes in Tennessee and Michigan that will produce electric vehicles and batteries. The company is “deep into the development of our future electric vehicles, which we expect to be profitable, affordable and high-volume,” William C. Ford Jr., the chair of the company, and Jim Farley, the chief executive, said in a report on the company’s sustainability programs this month.

福特公司继续在田纳西州和密歇根州建设生产电动汽车和电池的工厂。福特董事长小威廉·福特和首席执行官吉姆·法利本月在一份关于该公司可持续发展计划的报告中表示，该公司“正在深入开发未来的电动汽车，我们预计这种汽车将实现盈利、价格合理、产量高。”

Mr. Farley and other top executives at Ford regularly visit China, he said at the Aspen Ideas Festival last week. They test drive vehicles and fly some of the most interesting ones back to Detroit for closer study.

法利上周在阿斯彭创意节上表示，他和福特的其他高管频频访问中国。他们试驾汽车，并将一些最有趣的车空运回底特律进行更深入的研究。

He praised Chinese quality, calling it “the most humbling thing I’ve ever seen.”

他称赞中国的质量，称其为“我见过的最让人敬畏的东西”。

Ford has a team of former Tesla engineers in California working on electric vehicles that the company says will be able to compete with Chinese cars on price while being more appealing.

福特在加州有一支由前特斯拉工程师组成的团队，致力于电动汽车的研发。福特表示，这些电动汽车将能够在价格上与中国汽车竞争，同时更具吸引力。

For now, Chinese carmakers are effectively frozen out of the United States by 100 percent tariffs. But BYD and others are already selling cars in many other countries, including Brazil, Britain, Mexico and Thailand, where they will be seen and driven by American tourists and business travelers. In years to come, political leaders in the United States may find it difficult to explain to consumers why they cannot buy cheap, capable electric vehicles that are available in other countries.

目前，由于100%的关税，中国汽车制造商实际上被挡在了美国门外。但比亚迪和其他公司已经在许多其他国家销售汽车，包括巴西、英国、墨西哥和泰国，在那里，前来旅游和出差的美国人将看到并驾驶它们。在未来的几年里，美国的政治领导人可能会发现很难向消费者解释，为什么他们不能购买在其他国家可以买到的价格便宜、性能优秀的电动汽车。

Protectionist policies may also encourage complacency by U.S. automakers. If they don’t need to worry about Chinese rivals and don’t have to meet tougher fuel economy standards, they might delay investing in the latest technology and keep making large pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles that guzzle gasoline.

保护主义政策也可能助长美国汽车制造商的自满情绪。如果它们不需要担心中国的竞争对手，也不需要达到更严格的燃油经济性标准，它们可能会推迟对最新技术的投资，继续生产耗油的大型皮卡和运动型多功能车。

“We should be viewing this as a question of national competitiveness,” said Michael Lenox, a professor of business administration at the University of Virginia. “How long can you keep those cars from the U.S. market through trade restrictions?”

“我们应该把这看作是国家竞争力的问题，”弗吉尼亚大学工商管理教授迈克尔·莱诺克斯说。“你还能用贸易限制把这些汽车挡在美国市场之外多久？”

As the Dalai Lama turns 90 this month, he is focusing attention on the future of Tibetan Buddhism and the exiled Tibetan nation.

本月将迎来90岁生日的达赖喇嘛正将注意力集中在藏传佛教和流亡藏人群体的未来上。

The spiritual leader, who led a flock of tens of thousands out of Tibet and into exile to escape Chinese persecution nearly seven decades ago, has long raised questions about the future of Tibetan Buddhism’s highest office, in the face of Chinese interference.

近70年前，为了逃避中国的迫害，这位精神领袖带领数万民众离开西藏流亡海外。面对中国的干涉，他长期以来对藏传佛教最高职位的传承问题表示担忧。

The Dalai Lama has hinted that he might upend established practices for his succession, as part of an apparent strategy to throw off the Chinese government and avoid a leadership vacuum that Beijing can exploit as it seeks to control Tibetan Buddhism.

达赖喇嘛曾暗示他可能会改变传统的转世体系，这似乎是他为了摆脱中国政府控制、避免北京利用领导层的真空来掌控藏传佛教的一种策略。

On Wednesday, he said the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue, without offering many specifics. But he said the Gaden Phodrang Trust, an organization run by the Dalai Lama’s office, had “sole authority” to recognize a future reincarnation.

他在周三表示，将延续现有的转世体系，但没有提供太多具体细节。不过他表示，由达赖喇嘛办公室管理的甘丹颇章基金会拥有认定未来转世的“唯一权力”。

Who is the Dalai Lama?

达赖喇嘛是谁？

Tenzin Gyatso is the 14th Dalai Lama.

丹增嘉措是第十四世达赖喇嘛。

He was born into a farming family in 1935 in what was then northeastern Tibet and is now Qinghai Province in China. He was recognized at age 2 as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama and afterward began monastic training and Buddhist philosophical studies.

他于1935年出生于当时的西藏东北部（现中国青海省）一个农民家庭，两岁时被认定为第十三世达赖喇嘛的转世灵童，此后开始接受寺院教育并研习佛学。

Chinese troops entered Tibet in 1950. At age 15, the Dalai Lama became Tibet’s political leader, guiding the Tibetan people through the crisis. In 1959, during the Tibetan uprising, the Dalai Lama left the country for India with many of his followers, and he has never returned.

1950年，中国军队进入西藏。达赖喇嘛在15岁时成为西藏的政治领袖，带领藏人度过危机。1959年西藏起义期间，达赖喇嘛与众多追随者一起离开西藏前往印度，此后再未返回故土。

He settled in the Himalayan town of Dharamsala and formed a government in exile. In 1989, the Dalai Lama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2011, he relinquished his political leadership role in the Tibetan government in exile but kept his position as spiritual leader.

他在位于喜马拉雅山的小城达兰萨拉定居下来，并建立了一个流亡政府。1989年，达赖喇嘛被授予诺贝尔和平奖。2011年，他卸任流亡政府的政治领导职务，但保留了精神领袖的地位。

In a book he published this year, the Dalai Lama describes how, after years of fruitless negotiations with Chinese leaders, he came to the decision that fighting for Tibetan independence was a lost cause. Instead, he began advocating that Tibetans be given cultural autonomy within China.

在他今年出版的一本书中，达赖喇嘛描述了自己在与中国领导人多年徒劳无果的谈判后，认定争取西藏独立已无望，于是转而主张在中国境内争取藏人在文化上的自治。

How will his successor be chosen?

如何选出继任者？

Traditionally, the search for a Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, who becomes his successor, begins only upon the incumbent’s death and could take several years.

传统上，寻找达赖喇嘛转世灵童的工作须待其圆寂后方能启动，可能历时数年之久。

Tibetan Buddhist leaders say they follow ancient customs of parsing mystical visions, clues left by the previous Dalai Lama and astrology to help narrow their search. Candidates are then tested to see if they show any traits that could be deemed especially holy.

藏传佛教领袖表示，转世灵童的寻访过程遵循古老仪轨，通过解析神秘的异象、前任达赖喇嘛留下的线索及星象占卜来缩小寻访范围。候选灵童会经严格甄别，检验其是否显现特别征兆。

The Dalai Lama has offered hints that he might diverge from the customs. He has said that his successor will be born in a free country, indicating that the next Dalai Lama could come from among Tibetan exiles, who number about 140,000, half of them in India. He has also said that his successor could be an adult, and not necessarily a man.

达赖喇嘛曾暗示，他可能突破传统仪轨。他说，转世灵童将降生于自由国度，这表明下一任达赖喇嘛可能来自约14万流亡藏人群体，其中半数生活在印度。他还表示，他的继任者可能是成年人，且未必是男性。

At times, he has even suggested that the institution of the Dalai Lama had served its purpose and did not necessarily need to be continued.

这位宗教领袖甚至数次暗示，达赖喇嘛制度已完成了历史使命，因此不一定需要延续。

On Wednesday, in a video statement to a meeting of religious leaders, he said that the Tibetan people wanted the institution to continue, and that the next Dalai Lama’s search and recognition should happen “in accordance with past tradition.”

周三在一场藏传佛教高僧会议上发表的视频讲话中，达赖喇嘛表示藏人希望这一制度继续存在，并且下一任达赖喇嘛的寻访和认定应“按照过去的传统”进行。

Officials would not clarify whether the leader was ruling out his earlier proposals, saying that the Dalai Lama remained in good health, and that he would give clearer instructions on reincarnation when the time was right.

流亡政府的官员没有澄清这位藏传佛教领袖是否否定了自己之前的提议，只说达赖喇嘛健康状况良好，会在适当时机就转世问题作出更明确的指示。

Lobsang Tenzin, the Tibetan trust’s second-most-senior leader, who is known by his religious title of Samdhong Rinpoche, said the Dalai Lama had weighed the future of the institution for decades, but over time he found that Tibetan people favored preserving it.

甘丹颇章基金会的二号人物、法号桑东仁波切的洛桑丹增表示，达赖喇嘛数十年来一直在考虑该制度的未来，但随着时间的推移，他发现藏人倾向于保留它。

But he did not say how the Dalai Lama planned to shield the reincarnation process from Chinese interference. “When the time comes, he will give instructions,” Samdhong Rinpoche said.

但他没有说明达赖喇嘛计划如何避免中国对转世制度的干预。“时机成熟时，他会给出指示，”桑东仁波切说。

How might China try to control the succession?

中国会如何干预转世体系？

China’s leaders claim that only the ruling Communist Party — an avowed atheist organization — can name the next incarnation of the Dalai Lama.

中国领导人声称，只有执政的共产党——一个公开宣称为无神论者的组织——才能批准下一任达赖喇嘛。

By seeking to control Tibetan Buddhism’s leadership, China hopes it can all but erase the Dalai Lama’s influence in Tibet and any challenges to the party’s rule.

中国希望通过控制藏传佛教的领导层彻底消除达赖喇嘛在西藏的影响力，以及对中共统治的任何挑战。

The Chinese government has tried to resurrect a “golden urn” system — using a relic once employed by the Manchu emperors of the Qing dynasty to anoint Tibetan lamas — to further control successions. Beijing has said that after a reincarnated lama is selected using the urn, the choice must be approved by the Chinese government.

为了进一步掌控转世程序，中国政府试图恢复“金瓶掣签”制度——这一办法曾由清朝的满人皇帝用于任命藏传佛教活佛。北京方面表示，通过金瓶掣签选出活佛后，最终人选必须得到中国政府的批准。

China already has a blueprint for inserting itself into Tibetan Buddhist successions. When the 10th Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second-highest spiritual figure, died in 1989, the Dalai Lama named the 5-year-old son of a herder as the successor. The boy and his family were kidnapped by China, and the boy — who has not been seen since — was replaced with a monk chosen by Beijing.

事实上，中国已经有一个干预藏传佛教转世的“蓝图”。1989年，藏传佛教中排名第二位的精神领袖第十世班禅喇嘛圆寂后，达赖喇嘛认定一名牧民的五岁儿子为其转世灵童。然而，这个男孩及其家人被中国政府绑架，从此下落不明，男孩被北京选择的一名僧侣取代。

Last month, that monk met with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, and pledged his allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party, state media reported.

据中国官媒报道，就在上个月，那名被中国政府认可的僧侣与中国领导人习近平会面，并宣誓效忠中国共产党。

In his statement to the conference of monks on Wednesday, the Dalai Lama said a trust under his office has “sole authority” for the search and recognition of the next Dalai Lama. Without naming Beijing, he said “no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter.”

周三向与会高僧讲话的达赖喇嘛表示，他办公室下属的一个信托机构拥有寻访和认定下一任达赖喇嘛的“唯一权力”。他虽未点名北京，但明确表示“任何人都无权干涉。”

The monks were more blunt. In a statement, they condemned “the People’s Republic of China’s usage of reincarnation for their political gain.”

僧侣们则表达得更为直接。他们在一份声明中谴责“中华人民共和国将转世制度用于政治目的”。

The North Korean government, struggling under the weight of international sanctions, has for years seeded companies in the United States and elsewhere with remote tech workers camouflaged by false and stolen identifies to generate desperately needed revenue, federal prosecutors say.

联邦检察官表示，在国际制裁的重压下挣扎的朝鲜政府多年一直在向美国和其他国家的企业秘密派遣远程技术人员，他们利用虚假和盗用的身份为伪装，为朝鲜政权创造急需的收入。

Taking advantage of the global demand for skilled tech employees and the rise in remote employment, the North Korean regime has found a way to work around United Nations and United States sanctions imposed on it for its nuclear weapons program, the prosecutors said in two indictments unsealed in federal district courts in Massachusetts and Georgia. It has also used the access to steal both money and information, they said.

检察官在马萨诸塞州和佐治亚州联邦地方法院公布的两份起诉书中指出，朝鲜政权利用全球对熟练技术工作者的需求增长和远程就业的兴起，成功规避联合国和美国因其核武器计划而实施的制裁。起诉书说，朝鲜还利用这种途径窃取资金与情报。

“Thousands of North Korean cyber-operatives have been trained and deployed by the regime to blend into the global digital work force,” Leah Foley, the chief federal prosecutor in Massachusetts, said in announcing the charges on Monday. She called the threat “both real and immediate.”

“朝鲜政权训练和部署了数以千计的网络特工，混入全球数字劳动力大军，”马萨诸塞州首席联邦检察官利亚·弗利周一在宣布这些指控时说。她称这一威胁“既真实又迫在眉睫”。

On Monday, federal law enforcement authorities took a series of actions across 16 states aimed at shutting down the scheme. Investigators seized dozens of financial accounts and fraudulent websites and searched “laptop farms” that allowed North Korean operatives to gain access to the computers that companies provide their off-site employees, prosecutors said.

周一，联邦执法当局在16个州采取了一系列行动，旨在瓦解该渗透计划。检察官表示，调查人员查封了数十个金融账户和欺诈网站，并搜查了所谓的“笔记本电脑农场”，这些农场让朝鲜特工可以接入企业远程办公电脑。

In recent years, North Korean attempts to evade sanctions using false identities have been increasingly been raising alarm. There is evidence that the operation has expanded geographically, targeting Europe in particular, according to a report from the Google Threat Intelligence Group in April.

近年来，朝鲜利用虚假身份逃避制裁的企图日益引起人们的警觉。谷歌威胁情报小组今年4月的一份报告显示，有证据表明，该行动的地域范围已经扩大，尤其瞄准了欧洲。

Last year, the Justice Department and the F.B.I. launched an initiative to identify people in the United States believed to be helping North Koreans advance the plots, some of them without their knowledge.

去年，司法部和联邦调查局发起专项行动，以查明据信在美国境内帮助朝鲜人推进这些阴谋的人，其中一些人对此并不知情。

In one of the cases brought by federal prosecutors this week, American, Chinese and Taiwanese citizens were accused of involvement in a plot that compromised about 80 American identities. The falsified identities were used to help North Koreans get remote tech jobs with over 100 companies across dozens of states in a range of industries between 2021 and 2024.

在本周联邦检察官提起的一起诉讼中，美国、中国和台湾公民被指控参与了一起套取约80个美国人身份的阴谋。这些伪造的身份被用来帮助朝鲜人在2021年至2024年期间在数十个州的100多家公司获得远程技术工作，涉及多个行业。

Prosecutors say the scheme generated about $5 million for North Korea, and cost American business some $3 million in damages and expenses. It also exposed sensitive information, including some related to military technology, they said.

检察官说，该阴谋给朝鲜带来了大约500万美元的收入，给美国企业造成了大约300万美元的损失和开支。他们还指出，此举更致使包括军事技术在内的敏感信息外泄。

The defendants are said to have used online background check services to cull personal information and create personas for the North Koreans so that they appeared authorized to work in the United States. They conducted records checks of hundreds of individuals, including dozens whose identities were stolen, prosecutors said.

据称，被告使用在线背景调查服务筛选个人信息，并为朝鲜人伪造虚假身份，使他们看起来具有在美国工作的合法资格。检察官指出，他们对数以百人的记录进行了核查，其中数十人身份信息遭盗用。

To bolster the falsified identities, participants in the scheme created fake companies, websites and bank accounts and arranged to receive the company laptops delivered to the remote workers in the United States, prosecutors said. Then, the authorities said, they granted remote access to the laptops to North Korean operatives working abroad. .

检察官说，为了支持伪造的身份，该阴谋的参与者创建了假公司、网站和银行账户，并安排接收企业交付给美国远程工作人员的笔记本电脑。然后，当局说，他们允许在国外工作的朝鲜特工远程访问这些笔记本电脑。

The second case unsealed this week, in the Northern District of Georgia, charges four North Koreans with theft and money laundering involving about $900,000 in cryptocurrency. The remote workers used false identities from Malaysia to perpetrate the scheme and worked out of the United Arab Emirates, prosecutors say.

本周在佐治亚州北部地区公布的第二起案件指控四名朝鲜人盗窃和洗钱，涉及约90万美元的加密货币。检方指出，这些远程工作人员使用马来西亚的假身份实施了这一计划，跨境运作据点设在阿联酋。

The defendants sought jobs in the crypto industry, according to the indictment. One was hired as a developer at an Atlanta-based company, and another worked for a Serbian firm. Together they diverted nearly $1 million in crypto from their employers, and their accused co-conspirators laundered the funds,, according to the indictment.

起诉书称，这些被告在加密货币行业寻找工作。一个人被亚特兰大的一家公司聘为开发人员，另一个人在一家塞尔维亚公司工作。起诉书称，他们总共从雇主那里转移了近100万美元的加密货币，而由同伙实施洗钱操作。

The American authorities have been raising alarms about the problem since at least 2022, when the F.B.I., along with the State and Treasury Departments, issued an advisory warning to the international community about infiltration. Operatives working mostly in North Korea, China and Russia were relying on an expansive network abroad to get jobs, targeting Europe and East Asia, the advisory said.

至少从2022年开始，美国当局就开始对这个问题发出警告，当时，联邦调查局联合国务院和财政部就渗透问题向国际社会发出了一份通报，提醒各方警惕渗透风险。该报告称，这些主要在朝鲜、中国和俄罗斯工作的特工依靠一个庞大的海外网络来找工作，目标是欧洲和东亚的企业和机构。

After the American warning, North Korean workers increasingly began seeking contracts elsewhere, according to an April report from a lead adviser to the Google Threat Intelligence Group in Europe, James Collier.

根据谷歌威胁情报小组驻欧洲首席顾问詹姆斯·科利尔4月的一份报告，在美国发出警告后，更多朝鲜工作人员开始向其他地方转移。

One North Korean worker ran at least 12 personas across Europe and the United States in late 2024, seeking jobs at defense companies and in governments, using fabricated references , the report says. There is also evidence of operatives and assistants working in Portugal, Germany and Britain.

报告称，2024年底，一名朝鲜工作人员在欧洲和美国至少扮演了12个角色，利用捏造的推荐信在国防承包商和政府部门寻找工作。还有证据表明，葡萄牙、德国和英国也有朝鲜工作人员与协助者从事相关行动的痕迹。

“In response to heightened awareness of the threat within the United States, they’ve established a global ecosystem of fraudulent personas to enhance operational agility,” Mr. Collier said. That evolution, he said, suggests they will continue being able to run the financing schemes.

科利尔说，“为了应对美国国内对威胁的高度警惕，他们建立了一个全球性的欺诈人物生态系统，以提高行动的灵活性。”他说，这一演变表明，他们能继续开展此类筹资活动。

The Dalai Lama has spent decades in exile thinking about ways to prevent the Chinese government from taking control of Tibetan Buddhism after his death and ending the struggle for Tibetan autonomy.

在流亡的数十年间，达赖喇嘛始终在思考如何防止中国政府在他圆寂后控制藏传佛教，结束西藏争取自治的斗争。

Early on, he suggested that the institution of the Dalai Lama could be ended altogether to deprive Beijing of a target to exploit. Later, he focused on how to keep the Chinese Communist Party from installing its own choice to succeed him. He floated a sharp break from precedent, saying he might transfer his spiritual powers to an adult during his lifetime to avoid the vacuum that would come with selecting a child as his reincarnation and successor.

他曾在早些时候建议彻底结束达赖喇嘛的转世制度，让中国政府没有可乘之机。后来，他把重点放在怎样阻止中国共产党指定他的继任者。他曾提出一个与先例迥然不同的想法，称他也许会在自己在世时将精神领袖的权力移交给一名成年人，以避免把一名儿童选为其转世灵童和继承人所带来的权力真空。

But on Wednesday, as senior monks filed into a much-anticipated conference in Dharamsala, India, as part of 90th birthday celebrations for the Dalai Lama, he made clear that tradition would prevail.

但周三，在印度达兰萨拉举行的一个备受期待的会议上，高僧们鱼贯而入，这是庆祝达赖喇嘛90岁生日活动的一部分，他明确表示，传统将会延续。

The institution of the Dalai Lama, he said, will continue. And his successor will be selected through the usual process of reincarnation.

他说，达赖喇嘛的转世制度将继续下去。他的继任者将通过寻找转世灵童的惯常程序来加以确定。

His decision reflected the fine line that even a modernizing Dalai Lama must tread between preserving a core element of Tibetan Buddhism and shielding it from political manipulation by Beijing.

他的决定反映了即使是致力于现代化的达赖喇嘛，也需要在维护藏传佛教的核心要素与避免其受到中国政府政治操纵之间把握微妙的分寸。

It showed the limits of his powers to reshape the institution he has towered over for more than seven decades, as well as his pragmatic understanding of Tibetans’ David-vs.-Goliath struggle against the Chinese government.

这也显示出，虽然主持藏传佛教制度70多年，但他重塑制度的权力有限，同时还表明他对藏人与中国政府之间力量悬殊的斗争有着务实的领悟。

“The issue in probably any religion, but especially a religion where you have a leader who’s modernizing, is how far can you push your community to take up a new approach,” said Robert Barnett, a scholar of Tibet at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

“也许任何宗教都会面临这样的问题，尤其是领袖希望推动现代化时，他究竟可以在多大程度上推动信众接受新的做法，”伦敦亚非学院的藏学研究者罗伯特·巴内特说。

“He may have sensed that the community wasn’t quite ready to take this new step of succession,” he added.

“他可能已经感觉到，信众们还没有完全准备好接受这种继承方式上的重大变革，”巴内特补充道。

行走在达兰萨拉经幡前的僧侣，摄于周三。

Still, even as the Dalai Lama seemed to close the door on out-of-the-box ideas, he sought to lay down boundaries that would shut out an authoritarian Beijing. He made clear that his office had “sole authority” in identifying the next Dalai Lama.

尽管如此，就在达赖喇嘛似乎堵死了打破常规的想法之际，他仍试图划定一道明确的界限，以阻止威权的中国政府插手未来继任者的认定。他明确表示，达赖喇嘛的办公室是确认转世灵童的“唯一权威机构”。

“No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” he said in a video message to the monks.

“其他任何人都无权干涉，”他在向僧侣发表的视频讲话中说。

His statement, which he read through large reading glasses from a sheet of paper he held in front of him, emphasized the consultative process through which he had reached his decision on the matter of succession.

他戴着老花镜，宣读了手中的声明，强调了他在转世灵童问题上的决定是通过协商过程做出的。

The Chinese Communist Party, which has sought to erode the influence of the Dalai Lama in Tibet, asserts that only it has the authority to choose his reincarnation, despite being committed to atheism in its ranks.

中国共产党一直寻求削弱达赖喇嘛在西藏的影响力，声称唯有中共才有权选择达赖喇嘛的转世灵童，尽管中共党员都不得信教。

The Dalai Lama fled China in 1959 after the Chinese Army invaded Tibet to bring the region under the control of the Communist Party. He has lived in India ever since, helping to establish a democracy in exile while traveling the world to advocate autonomy and cultural and religious freedom for the Tibetan people.

1959年中国军队入侵西藏，将该地区置于中共控制之下后，达赖喇嘛出走。那之后，他一直生活在印度，不仅协助建立了流亡政府的民主体系，并经常在世界各地奔走呼吁，为西藏人民争取自治以及文化和宗教自由。

The Chinese government sees the octogenarian leader as a separatist who seeks independence for Tibet, where more than six million Tibetans live. In his absence, Beijing has tried to bring elements of the Tibetan religious institution under state control. It has also worked to erase Tibetan culture in order to absorb the people into one nation united around the Communist Party.

中国政府把年近90岁的达赖喇嘛视为寻求西藏独立的分裂分子。西藏有六百多万藏人。达赖喇嘛出走后，中国政府已试图将西藏宗教制度的一些元素置于政府控制之下。为了把藏人同化到一个团结在中共领导下的国家里，中国政府一直在努力消除西藏文化。

There are clear signs that Beijing could dispute the selection of the next Dalai Lama. When the 10th Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second-highest spiritual figure, died in 1989, the Dalai Lama named the 5-year-old son of a herder as the successor. The boy and his family were kidnapped by China, and the boy — who has not been seen since — was replaced with a monk chosen by Beijing.

已有明确的迹象显示，中国政府会对下一任达赖喇嘛的选择提出异议。1989年，西藏的第二大精神领袖、第十世班禅喇嘛圆寂后，达赖喇嘛认定的继任者是一个牧民的儿子，这位继任者当时五岁。这名男童和他的家人被中国政府绑架，至今下落不明，中国政府用自己挑选的僧人取代了达赖喇嘛认定的男童。

出席会议的僧侣和高级喇嘛，这个会议是达赖喇嘛90岁生日庆祝活动的一部分。

Traditionally, the search for a new Dalai Lama begins only after the current one dies. Tibetan Buddhist leaders say they follow ancient customs of parsing mystical visions, clues left by the previous Dalai Lama and astrology to help narrow their search. In the past, search committees would travel around Tibet testing candidates to see if they showed any traits that could be deemed especially holy.

根据藏传佛教传统，寻找达赖喇嘛转世灵童的工作，只有在现任圆寂后才能开始。藏传佛教的领袖们说，他们按照古老的习俗解读神谕、前世达赖喇嘛留下的线索以及占星术缩小寻访范围。过去，寻访委员会的成员们会在西藏各地考察候选人，看他们是否展示任何可能被视为尤其神圣的特征。

This process can take years. Eventually, a child is deemed to be the previous Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. Another decade or more can pass while the child is educated and prepared for the role when he reaches maturity.

寻访过程可能需要几年时间。最终，一个小孩会被认定为前世达赖喇嘛的转世灵童。这个孩子接受教育，为成年后担任的职位做准备，还再需要十年甚至更长的时间。

The fear that China will exploit that gap has shaped the Dalai Lama’s strategy ever since he and tens of thousands of his followers went into exile.

自从达赖喇嘛和他的数万名追随者流亡海外后，一个担忧一直影响着他的策略，那就是中国可能会利用寻找和培养继承者所需的时间。

In 2011, the Dalai Lama completed a process of gradually relinquishing his political leadership role in the Tibetan exile government, a decision intended to strengthen the democratic structure of the Tibetan movement. Since then, Tibetan refugees scattered around the world have elected their political leader through a direct vote.

2011年，达赖喇嘛逐渐卸去了他在西藏流亡政府担任的政治领导职务，做出这个决定的目的是加强西藏流亡政府的民主结构。那之后，分散在世界各地的西藏难民通过直接投票来选出他们的政治领袖。

Lobsang Tenzin, the second-most-senior leader of the trust that will oversee reincarnation matters, who is known by his religious title of Samdhong Rinpoche, said the Dalai Lama had weighed the future of the institution for decades but over time found that Tibetan people favored preserving it.

负责寻找、认证转世神童的信托基金的二号负责人、法号桑东仁波切的洛桑丹增说，达赖喇嘛几十年来一直在考虑转世制度的未来，但随着时间的推移，他发现西藏人民倾向于保留这个制度。

Analysts said that was consistent with the image the Dalai Lama has cultivated as a democrat who seeks consultation. While the approach may be his nature, it also makes a clear contrast with authoritarian China, they said.

分析人士表示，这与达赖喇嘛一直以来塑造的形象是一致的——一位重视协商和共识的民主领袖。他们说，虽然寻求协商也许是他的天性，但这种做法也与威权中国形成鲜明对比。

“Today’s message,” Samdhong Rinpoche said at a news conference in Dharamsala, “is that the Dalai Lama institution will continue — that after the 14th Dalai Lama, there will be a 15th Dalai Lama, there will be a 16th Dalai Lama.”

桑东仁波切在达兰萨拉的新闻发布会上说：“今天的信息是，达赖喇嘛的转世制度将继续延续下去：第十四世达赖喇嘛之后，还会有第十五世达赖喇嘛，也会有第十六世达赖喇嘛。”

He did not say how the Dalai Lama planned to shield the reincarnation process from Chinese interference. He also declined to say whether the Dalai Lama’s statement emphasizing the traditional process of reincarnation now ruled out his earlier suggestions about breaking with precedents.

桑东仁波切没有说达赖喇嘛打算如何保护转世程序不受中国的干预，也拒绝说达赖喇嘛强调传统转世程序的声明是否意味着否定了他以前有关打破先例的建议。

“When the time comes, he will give instructions,” Samdhong Rinpoche said, referring to reincarnation.

“他将在适当的时候给出指示，”桑东仁波切在谈到转世问题时说。

桑东仁波切（左）是负责寻找转世灵童的信托基金的二号领导人，图为他和西藏流亡政府政治领导人边巴次仁在周三会议后举行记者会。

Among Tibetans in Dharamsala, there was little surprise over the Dalai Lama’s announced position.

达兰萨拉的藏人对达赖喇嘛宣布的立场并不感到意外。

Tenzin Thupten, 51, a monk who left Tibet in the 1980s, said the Dalai Lama had been consistent about why the Chinese Communist Party had no right to influence a decision over his reincarnation.

51岁的僧人丹增图登是上世纪80年代离开西藏的。他说，达赖喇嘛在中共为什么无权干涉转世决定上的立场是一致的。

“If they don’t believe in God, in religion, who will believe their choice?” he said.

“如果他们不信神，没有宗教信仰，谁会相信他们的选择呢？”他问道。

Tenzin Woeser, 24, and Tenzin Chime, 20, siblings who were born in Dharamsala and migrated to New York as children, were on their first trip back and had stopped by the Dalai Lama temple.

24岁的丹增唯色和20岁的丹增奇美是兄妹，他们出生在达兰萨拉，幼时随家人移民纽约。这是他们第一次回达兰萨拉，顺路来看看达赖喇嘛的寺庙。

“There is a major consensus in the diaspora that the next Dalai Lama will be from outside China,” Tenzin Woeser said. The Dalai Lama himself has said that his successor will be someone born in a free country.

“海外藏人中有一个主要的共识，那就是下一任达赖喇嘛将来自中国以外的地方，”丹增唯色说。达赖喇嘛本人也曾说，他的继任者将出生在一个自由国家。

He did not repeat that principle in his address on Wednesday. Mr. Barnett, the analyst, said that appeared to give the Dalai Lama some room for last-ditch negotiations with China.

他在周三的讲话中没有重申这个原则。分析人士巴内特说，这似乎给达赖喇嘛留下了与中国进行最后谈判的空间。

Mr. Barnett said that moderates within the Chinese system may think that “it is not really a good idea if we haven’t got a settlement with him before he dies.”

巴内特说，中国体制内的温和派人士可能​​会觉得，“如果没有在他去世前达成协议，恐非明智之举。”

Millions of Tibetans have been deprived of seeing their spiritual leader for over half a century, and the prospect that he could die in exile poses challenges for the Chinese authorities that they could struggle to contain.

数百万藏人已有半个多世纪被剥夺了看到他们精神领袖的机会，如果达赖喇嘛在流亡中去世，可能给中国当局带来难以控制的挑战。

The political leader of the exiled Tibetan administration, Penpa Tsering, has acknowledged the existence of back-channel talks, but has cautioned against finding too much hope in them.

西藏流亡政府的政治领导人边巴次仁承认了谈判在通过秘密渠道进行，但也警告，不要对谈判抱太大希望。

Mr. Barnett said that Chinese officials’ position on reincarnation was once more moderate, in which they “only required a right to confirm a choice made” by senior Tibetan monks. But they took a more hard-line turn in the 1990s.

巴内特说，中国官员曾在转世问题上持比较温和的立场，他们对西藏高级僧侣选出来的灵童“只要求有认定权”。但他们在20世纪90年代转向了更强硬的立场。

If they went back to that kind of moderate approach, it could create a lot of room for talks, he said.

如果他们愿意回到以前的温和立场，那将会给谈判制造很大的空间，巴内特说。

“If there was political will from China, it is not that hard,” he said.

“如果中国有政治意愿的话，谈判不会很难，”他说。

In China, more wind turbines and solar panels were installed last year than in the rest of the world combined. And China’s clean energy boom is going global. Chinese companies are building electric vehicle and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco, Hungary and beyond.

在中国，去年安装的风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板比世界其他地区的总和还要多。中国的清洁能源热潮正在走向全球。中国企业正在巴西、泰国、摩洛哥、匈牙利等地建设电动汽车和电池工厂。

At the same time, in the United States, President Trump is pressing Japan and South Korea to invest “trillions of dollars” in a project to ship natural gas to Asia. And General Motors just killed plans to make electric motors at a factory near Buffalo, N.Y., and instead will put $888 million into building V-8 gasoline engines there.

与此同时，在美国，特朗普总统在向日本和韩国施压，要求它们投资“数万亿美元”建设一个向亚洲运输天然气的项目。通用汽车刚刚取消了在纽约州布法罗附近的一家工厂生产电动车的计划，转而投资8.88亿美元，在那里生产V-8汽油发动机。

The race is on to define the future of energy. Even as the dangers of global warming hang ominously over the planet, two of the most powerful countries in the world, the United States and China, are pursuing energy strategies defined mainly by economic and national security concerns, as opposed to the climate crisis. Entire industries are at stake, along with the economic and geopolitical alliances that shape the modern world.

定义能源未来的竞赛已经开始。尽管全球变暖的危险不祥地笼罩着地球，但世界上最强大的两个国家——美国和中国——正在推行的能源战略主要由经济和国家安全考虑决定，而不是气候危机。这关系到整个产业，乃至塑造现代世界的经济和地缘政治联盟。

The Trump administration wants to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels like oil and gas, which have powered cars and factories, warmed homes and fueled empires for more than a century. The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and the largest exporter of natural gas, offering the potential for what Mr. Trump has called an era of American “energy dominance” that eliminates dependence on foreign countries, particularly rival powers like China.

特朗普政府希望让世界继续依赖石油和天然气等化石燃料，一个多世纪以来，这些燃料驱动着汽车和工厂，为家庭供暖，为帝国的运转提供动力。美国是世界上最大的石油生产国和天然气出口国，这为特朗普所说的美国“能源主导”时代的到来提供了可能，这将消除对外国的依赖，尤其是对中国等竞争对手的依赖。

China is racing in an altogether different direction. It’s banking on a world that runs on cheap electricity from the sun and wind, and that relies on China for affordable, high-tech solar panels and turbines. China, unlike the United States, doesn’t have much easily accessible oil or gas of its own, so it is eager to eliminate dependence on imported fossil fuels and instead power more of its economy with renewables.

中国正朝着完全不同的方向前进。它寄望于一个依靠廉价太阳能和风能发电的世界，而这个世界依赖于中国提供价格合理的高科技太阳能电池板和涡轮机。与美国不同的是，中国自身没有多少容易获得的石油或天然气，因此它渴望消除对进口化石燃料的依赖，转而更多地利用可再生能源为其经济提供动力。

The dangers for China of relying on politically unstable regions for energy were underscored recently when Israel attacked Iran, which sells practically all its oil exports to China.

最近遭到以色列攻击的伊朗几乎所有的石油出口都卖给了中国。这凸显出中国依赖政治不稳定地区获取能源的危险。

While China still burns more coal than the rest of the world and emits more climate pollution than the United States and Europe combined, its pivot to cleaner alternatives is happening at breakneck speed. Not only does China already dominate global manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, E.V.s and many other clean energy industries, but with each passing month it is widening its technological lead.

尽管中国燃烧的煤炭仍比世界上其他国家多，排放的气候污染物也比美国和欧洲加起来还要多，但中国正在以极快的速度转向更清洁的能源。中国不仅已在太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机、电池、电动汽车和许多其他清洁能源产业的全球制造中占据主导地位，而且随着时间的推移，中国还在不断扩大其技术领先优势。

资料来源：联合国商品贸易统计数据库（注：数据来自2023年）

China’s biggest automaker, its biggest battery maker and its biggest electronics company have each introduced systems that can recharge electric cars in just five minutes, all but erasing one of the most annoying hassles of E.V.s, the long charging times. China has nearly 700,000 clean energy patents, more than half of the world's total. Beijing’s rise as a clean power behemoth is altering economies and shifting alliances in emerging countries as far afield as Pakistan and Brazil.

中国最大的汽车制造商、最大的电池制造商和最大的电子公司分别推出了可以在五分钟内给电动汽车充满电的系统，这几乎消除了电动汽车最恼人的问题之一——充电时间过长。中国拥有近70万项清洁能源专利，占世界总数的一半以上。中国作为清洁能源巨头崛起正在改变经济格局，并改变它与巴基斯坦和巴西等新兴国家的盟友关系。

The country is also taking steps that could make it hard for other countries, particularly the United States, to catch up. In April, Beijing restricted the export of powerful “rare earth” magnets, a business China dominates, unless they’re already inside fully assembled products like electric vehicles or wind turbines. While China recently started issuing some export licenses for the magnets, the moves signal that the world may face a choice: Buy China’s green energy technology, or do without.

中国还在采取措施，可能使其他国家——特别是美国——难以赶上它。今年4月，北京限制了中国主导的强力“稀土”磁铁的出口，除非它们已经安装在电动汽车或风力涡轮机等完全组装的产品中。虽然中国最近开始发放一些磁铁出口许可证，但此举表明，世界可能面临一个选择：要么购买中国的绿色能源技术，要么就别用这些磁铁。

China has also begun to dominate nuclear power, a highly technical field once indisputably led by the United States. China not only has 31 reactors under construction, nearly as many as the rest of the world combined, but has announced advances in next-generation nuclear technologies and also in fusion, the long-promised source of all-but-limitless clean energy that has bedeviled science for years.

中国还开始主导核能，这是一个曾经无可争议地由美国主导的高技术领域。中国有31座在建反应堆，几乎是世界上其他国家的总和，而且还宣布在下一代核技术和核聚变方面取得进展。核聚变多年来一直被认为有望成为一种几乎取之不尽的清洁能源，但科学上始终未能实现。

“China is huge,” said Praveer Sinha, chief executive of Tata Power, an Indian conglomerate that makes solar panels in a high-tech factory near the southern tip of the country but relies almost entirely on Chinese-made silicon to make those panels. “Huge means huge. No one in the world can compete with that.”

“中国很强大，”印度塔塔电力的首席执行官普拉维尔·辛哈说。塔塔电力是一家印度企业集团，在该国南端附近的一家高科技工厂生产太阳能电池板，但几乎完全依赖中国制造的硅来生产。“是货真价实的强大。世界上没有人能与之竞争。”

While China is dominating clean energy industries, from patented technologies to essential raw materials, the Trump administration is using the formidable clout of the world’s biggest economy to keep American oil and gas flowing.

在中国主导从专利技术到基本原材料的清洁能源行业的同时，特朗普政府正在利用世界最大经济体的强大影响力，来维持美国的石油和天然气供应。

In a full reversal from the Biden administration’s effort to pivot the American economy away from fossil fuels, the Trump White House is opening up public lands and federal waters for new drilling, fast-tracking permits for pipelines and pressuring other countries to buy American fuels as a way of avoiding tariffs.

与拜登政府让美国经济远离化石燃料的努力完全相反，特朗普的白宫正在开放公共土地和联邦水域，以进行新的钻探、为输油管道提供快速审批，并向其他国家施压，要求它们购买美国燃料，以避免关税。

Washington is essentially pursuing a strong-arm energy strategy, both at home and abroad with allies and friends. It’s premised on the idea that the modern world is already designed around these fuels, and the United States has them in abundance, so exporting them benefits the American economy even if solar energy is cleaner and often cheaper.

无论是在国内还是在国外，华盛顿都在对盟友和朋友实施强势能源战略。它的前提是，现代世界已经围绕这些燃料而设计，而美国拥有丰富的储备，因此出口它们有利于美国经济，即使太阳能更清洁，往往更便宜。

资料来源：联合国商品贸易统计数据库（注：数据来自2023年）

The competition between the United States and China to sell the world their wares has serious consequences for the health of the planet.

美国和中国竞相向世界推销自己的商品，这对地球的健康造成了严重后果。

Burning fossil fuels for more than 200 years has helped create the modern world while delivering great prosperity to developed countries such as the United States, which ranks historically as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. But it has also led to what scientists now say is a growing crisis. The carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere by the burning of oil, gas and coal acts as a heat-trapping blanket, leading to rapid global warming.

200多年来，化石燃料帮助创造了现代世界，同时也为美国等发达国家带来了巨大的繁荣，而美国历来是最大的温室气体排放国。但化石燃料也导致了科学家们所说的日益严重的危机。燃烧石油、天然气和煤炭排放到大气中的二氧化碳就像一个吸热毯，导致全球迅速变暖。

Cheap Chinese-made solar, batteries and E.V.s have made the pivot to cleaner technologies possible for many large economies including Brazil, South Africa and even India, a regional rival to Beijing. That affordability is crucial for bringing down global emissions.

中国制造的廉价太阳能、电池和电动汽车使许多大型经济体转向更清洁的技术成为可能，其中包括巴西、南非，甚至是中国的地区竞争对手印度。这种可负担性对于降低全球排放至关重要。

The scientific consensus is that warming, if unchecked, will continue to cause increasingly severe droughts and storms, potentially alter ocean currents and global weather patterns, disrupt food production, deepen a biodiversity crisis and inundate some of the world’s biggest cities as sea levels rise, among other risks.

科学界的共识是，如果不加以控制，变暖将继续导致日益严重的干旱和风暴，可能改变洋流和全球天气模式，扰乱粮食生产，加深生物多样性危机，随着海平面上升，世界上一些最大的城市会被淹没，此外还有其他风险。

The Trump administration has dismissed those concerns. The United States energy secretary, Chris Wright, a former natural gas executive, has described climate change as “a side effect of building the modern world.”

特朗普政府驳斥了这些担忧。曾在天然气行业担任高管的美国能源部长克里斯·赖特将气候变化描述为“建设现代世界的一个副作用”。

Asked about the diverging energy pathways of China and the United States, Ben Dietderich, a Department of Energy spokesman, said, “The United States is blessed with an abundant supply of energy resources and the Trump administration is committed to fully utilizing them to meet the growing energy needs of the American people.” Past efforts to encourage cleaner energy like solar or wind, he said, “harmed America’s energy security.”

在被问及中美两国不同的能源发展路径时，美国能源部发言人本·迪特里奇说，“美国有幸拥有丰富的能源资源，特朗普政府致力于充分利用这些资源，以满足美国人民日益增长的能源需求。”他说，过去鼓励太阳能或风能等清洁能源的努力“损害了美国的能源安全”。

Amanda Eversole, executive vice president of the American Petroleum Institute, which lobbies for fossil fuel companies, said her organization monitored Chinese advances and that she was downplaying their strategic threat. “We continue to keep a very close eye on what the Chinese are doing, because we believe it’s in our national security interests and our economic interest to continue to dominate from an American energy perspective,” she said.

为化石燃料公司游说的美国石油协会执行副总裁阿曼达·埃弗索尔说，她的组织监控了中国的进展，她淡化了中国的战略威胁。她说：“我们继续密切关注中国在做什么，因为我们相信，从美国能源的角度来看，继续占据主导地位符合我们的国家安全利益和经济利益。”

The White House declined to comment on energy strategy and China’s advances.

白宫拒绝就能源战略和中国的进步发表评论。

Most of the world’s energy still comes from fossil fuels. Yet as countries try to address the perils of climate change, they’ve been steadily adopting cleaner alternatives. By 2035, solar and wind power are expected to become the two largest sources of electricity production, surpassing coal and natural gas, according to the International Energy Agency.

世界上大部分的能源仍然来自化石燃料。然而，为了应对气候变化的危险，各国一直在稳步采用更清洁的替代品。根据国际能源署的数据，到2035年，太阳能和风能预计将超过煤炭和天然气，成为全球最大的两大电力来源。

As the cost of renewables keeps falling, the U.S. strategy may leave China poised to capitalize on the world’s growing appetite for not only cleaner but cheaper power.

随着可再生能源的成本不断下降，美国的战略可能会助力中国，使其从世界日益增长的清洁、廉价能源需求中获利。

“The U.S. will champion a fossil fuel economy, and China will become the leader of the low-carbon economy,” said Li Shuo, who heads the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “The question for the U.S. now is, where do you go from here?”

“美国将支持化石燃料经济，而中国将成为低碳经济的领导者，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕说。“美国现在面临的问题是，从现在开始要往哪个方向走？”

How America Lost Its Lead

美国是如何失去领先地位的

The United States had every opportunity to lead the world in renewables. In fact, it once did.

美国完全有机会在可再生能源领域引领世界。事实上，它曾经做到过这一点。

Americans created the first practical silicon photovoltaic cells in the 1950s and the first rechargeable lithium-metal batteries in the 1970s. The world’s first wind farm was built in New Hampshire nearly 50 years ago. Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House in 1979.

美国人在20世纪50年代发明了第一块实用的硅光伏电池，在70年代发明了第一块可充电的锂金属电池。近50年前，世界上第一个风力发电场于新罕布什尔州建成。1979年，吉米·卡特在白宫安装了太阳能电池板。

But with oil, gas and coal in abundant supply, and the fossil-fuel industry funding efforts to downplay climate concerns, America’s commitment to promoting clean energy investment has ebbed and flowed, sometimes dramatically.

但是，由于石油、天然气和煤炭供应充足，化石燃料行业又资助各种淡化气候问题的活动，美国对促进清洁能源投资的承诺时好时坏，有时甚至是大起大落。

1979年，吉米·卡特总统在白宫屋顶上参加了一场活动，当时他身后的太阳能电池板已经安装完毕。

For example, in 2009, the Obama administration began offering loan guarantees to emerging energy technologies. Tesla got $456 million, a loan that proved crucial to its later success.

例如，2009年，奥巴马政府开始为新兴能源技术提供贷款担保。特斯拉获得了4.56亿美元的贷款，这笔贷款对特斯拉后来的成功至关重要。

Then there was Solyndra.

但也有Solyndra公司这样的例子。

A maker of solar cells, Solyndra received a federal guarantee for loans totaling $528 million, then went out of business, leaving taxpayers on the hook. More than a decade has passed, yet critics of American efforts to promote clean energy still cite Solyndra as evidence of the folly of renewables.

Solyndra公司是一家太阳能电池制造商，获得了总计5.28亿美元的联邦贷款担保，然后它倒闭了，让纳税人陷入困境。十多年过去了，批评美国推动清洁能源的人仍然把Solyndra作为可再生能源愚蠢的证据。

Chinese officials have been mystified by the Solyndra fixation.

关于美国对Solyndra的执着，中国官员一直感到困惑。

“You are a little bit worried by Solyndra? Very small companies, why are you worried?” Li Junfeng, a key architect of China’s wind and solar policies, said in a 2017 interview. Beijing had a bigger appetite for taking risks, which meant sometimes failing, but also sometimes reaping bigger payoffs.

“你们对Solyndra过于担心了；很小的公司，你们为什么那么担心呢？”中国风能和太阳能政策的关键设计者李俊峰在2017年的采访中说。北京更喜欢冒险，这意味着有时会失败，但有时也会收获更大的回报。

China’s goal of dominating clean energy technology wasn’t about climate change. It was born in a moment of strategic self-awareness two decades ago, when the country’s leaders looked to the future and understood that controlling energy production was vital to national security.

中国主导清洁能源技术的目标与气候变化无关。它诞生于20年前的一次战略觉醒，当时中国领导人展望未来，明白控制能源生产对国家安全至关重要。

In 2003, Wen Jiabao became China’s premier, the country’s second-highest position. A rare-earths geologist, Mr. Wen saw energy policy as both a business opportunity and geopolitical necessity.

2003年，温家宝成为中国总理——该国的第二高官。作为一名稀土地质学家，温家宝认为能源政策既是商机，也是地缘政治的需要。

2003年，中国清洁能源转型的推动者温家宝在全国人民代表大会上发言。

China had become dependent on imported oil. It felt vulnerable to upheavals in the Middle East and to the control of shipping lanes by the United States and India, two sometimes hostile powers.

当时中国已开始依赖进口石油。面对中东的动荡，以及美国和印度这两个时有敌意的大国对航道的控制，它感到很容易受到影响。

Air pollution in China was terrible, killing people and creating a global embarrassment with images of cities smothered in gray. And the economy still relied on relatively unskilled manufacturing. Mr. Wen saw in energy a chance to solve both problems by making China an energy innovator.

中国的空气污染非常严重，造成了人员死亡，城市笼罩在灰色之中的画面令它在全球面前感到颜面无光。此外，当时中国经济仍然依赖于技术含量相对较低的制造业。温家宝从能源领域看到了解决这两个问题的机会，使中国成为能源创新者。

“Instead of making flip-flops, they’d make clean tech,” said Jennifer Turner, director of the China environment program at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

伍德罗·威尔逊中心中国环境项目主任詹妮弗·特纳说：“他们想制造清洁技术，而不是人字拖。”

Mr. Wen’s government essentially wrote a blank check.

温家宝政府实际上开出了一张空白支票。

China provided hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to wind, solar and electric car manufacturers while protecting its markets from foreign competitors. It established a global near-monopoly over many key raw materials, such as cobalt for batteries.

中国向风能、太阳能和电动汽车制造商提供了数千亿美元的补贴，同时保护自己的市场不受外国竞争对手的影响。中国在全球范围内几乎垄断了许多关键原材料，如电池用的钴。

Low-cost electricity from heavily polluting coal plants allowed the country to run aluminum smelters and polysilicon factories more cheaply than anywhere else. Critics have also accused China of using forced labor in places like Xinjiang to drive down costs, though China denies this.

来自污染严重的煤电厂的低成本电力使中国能够以比其他任何地方都低的成本经营铝冶炼厂和多晶硅工厂。批评人士还指责中国在新疆等地使用强迫劳动来降低成本，尽管中国对此予以否认。

At the same time, China has invested in research and a skilled workforce. These moves offered Chinese clean energy companies a level of sustained support that was nonexistent in the United States.

与此同时，中国在研究和技术劳动力方面进行了投资。这些举措为中国的清洁能源公司提供了美国所没有的持续支持。

“It’s hard to get China to commit to a long-term goal,” said Jian Pan, co-chairman of CATL, the world’s largest maker of batteries for electric vehicles and electric grids. “But when we commit, we really want to get it done, and all aspects of society — government, policy, private sector, engineering, everybody — work hard toward the same goal under a coordinated effort.”

“让中国投入到一个长期目标上是很难的，”全球最大的电动汽车和电网用电池制造商宁德时代联合董事长潘健表示。“但是，一旦投入，我们会真的希望完成它，社会的各个方面，包括政府、政策、私营部门、工程、每个人，都在协调一致的努力下朝着同一个目标努力。”

China’s efforts paid off.

中国的努力得到了回报。

Little more than a decade ago, CATL was a start-up created to buy a Japanese electronics company’s nascent electric-car battery division. Today, from its headquarters, which are shaped like an enormous battery, it operates a global network of mines, chemical processors and factories. Its founder is one of the wealthiest people in the world.

十多年前，宁德时代还是一家为收购日本一家电子公司的新兴电动汽车电池部门而成立的新公司。如今，在其形似巨大电池的总部，公司运营着一个由矿山、化学加工厂和工厂组成的全球网络。该公司创始人是世界上最富有的人之一。

中国宁波，极氪电动汽车工厂里的机器人。

Over that same short stretch of time, China came to dominate even clean energy industries the United States had once led. In 2008 the United States produced nearly half of the world’s polysilicon, a crucial material for solar panels. Today, China produces more than 90 percent. China’s auto industry is now widely seen as the most innovative in the world, besting the Japanese, the Germans and the Americans.

在同样短的时间内，中国甚至主宰了美国一度领先的清洁能源产业。2008年，美国生产了世界上近一半的多晶硅，多晶硅是太阳能电池板的关键材料。如今，中国的生产份额超过90%。中国的汽车工业现在被广泛认为是世界上最具创新力的，超过了日本、德国和美国。

To slash manufacturing costs, China has automated its factories, installing more robots each year from 2021 through 2023 than the rest of the world combined, and seven times as many as the United States.

为了削减制造成本，中国实现了工厂的自动化，从2021年到2023年，中国每年安装的机器人数量超过了世界其他国家的总和，是美国的七倍。

Eric Luo, vice-president of LONGi Green Energy Technology, a Chinese solar panel maker, said that a practice known as “cluster manufacturing” had proved beneficial. “There are places where, within a three- to four-hour drive, you can have everything,” he said. The components, the manufacturer, the skilled workforce, everything. “There’s nowhere else globally where you can have all that innovation clustered together.”

中国太阳能电池板制造商隆基绿能副总裁罗鑫表示，被称为“集群制造”的做法被证明是有益的。“有些地方，你可以在三、四个小时车程范围内得到所需的一切，”他说。组件，制造商，熟练的劳动力，应有尽有。“全球没有其他地方可以将所有创新集中在一起。”

Clustering also imparts huge benefits in the car battery business. Robin Zeng, CATL’s founder, said in an interview last summer that it costs six times as much to build a battery factory in the United States as in China, and that was before the Trump administration set out to weaken the financial incentives to build such plants in the United States.

集群也给汽车电池行业带来了巨大的好处。宁德时代创始人曾毓群去年夏天在接受采访时表示，在美国建一家电池工厂的成本是在中国的六倍，而这还是在特朗普政府着手削弱在美国建厂的经济激励措施之前。

Beyond its domination of manufacturing and technology, China has also gone on an epic clean-energy building spree.

除了在制造业和技术方面的主导地位，中国还掀起了一场大规模的清洁能源建设热潮。

Last June, the Urumqi solar farm, the largest in the world, came online in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region in China. It is capable of generating more power than some small countries need to run their entire economies.

去年6月，乌鲁木齐太阳能发电场——全球规模最大的光伏项目——在新疆维吾尔自治区并网发电。它的发电能力足以满足一些小国家的全部经济需求。

It’s hardly an anomaly. The other 10 largest solar facilities in the world are also in China, and even bigger ones are planned. The Chinese automaker BYD is currently building not one but two electric vehicle factories that will each produce twice as many cars as the largest car factory in the world, a Volkswagen plant in Germany.

这绝非个例。世界上另外10个最大的太阳能设施也都在中国，甚至还有更大的项目正在规划中。中国汽车制造商比亚迪目前正在建造的电动汽车工厂——不是一座而是两座——每座的产量都将是世界最大汽车厂（位于德国的一家大众汽车工厂）的两倍。

The United States was slow to see the full picture. Only toward the end of the Obama administration and during the first Trump administration did many Washington policymakers realize they had surrendered so much of the clean energy race to China.

美国迟迟未能看清全局。直到奥巴马政府末期和特朗普首个任期，许多华盛顿的决策者才意识到，他们在清洁能源竞赛中已经将大部分优势拱手让给了中国。

“The U.S. was asleep,” said Michael Carr, a former staff member at the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee who is now executive director of Solar Energy Manufacturers for America, a trade group. “You can invent the greatest tech in the world, but if you don’t know how to manufacture it, it won’t matter.”

“美国沉睡了太久，”前参议院能源和自然资源委员会幕僚、现任美国太阳能制造商协会执行董事的迈克尔·卡尔说，“纵使能发明顶尖技术，如果缺乏制造能力，终归还是徒劳。”

Of course, the United States could reverse course. A future administration could aggressively swing once again to clean energy research and investment.

当然，美国可以扭转航向。未来的政府可以再度发力清洁能源的研究和投资。

But it will have lost precious time. Investments made years ago by China are paying off now, and Beijing is continuing to pour money into developing its domestic energy industry and exporting those goods to the world.

但宝贵时机已然错失。中国多年前的投资正在获得回报，北京仍在持续加码国内能源产业发展的投入，并将相关产品推向全球市场。

Beijing’s ‘Soft Power’ Ambitions

北京的“软实力”野心

Among China’s biggest green-energy customers is a petrostate, Saudi Arabia. On desert land renowned for its boundless oil reserves, Chinese companies are building one of the world’s largest battery-storage projects alongside solar farms.

沙特阿拉伯这个石油王国竟成为了中国绿色能源的最大客户之一。在这片以无尽石油储量闻名的沙漠地带，中国企业正在建设世界上最大的电池储能项目之一，同时还有与之配套的太阳能发电场。

Around the world, Beijing is using its clean energy clout to build or expand political and economic relationships.

在世界各地，北京正在利用其清洁能源的影响力来建立或扩大政经关系。

Both the United States and China not only see energy independence as essential at home, but understand that supplying other countries with energy is a vital way to project power. And yet, their approaches couldn’t be more different.

美中两国不仅视能源自主为立国之本，而且明白向其他国家供应能源是投射力量的重要方式。然而，两国的做法却截然不同。

Today, China’s dominance of so many clean energy industries is enabling it to expand its sphere of influence by selling and financing energy technology around the world. These relationships allow China to forge multidecade financial, cultural and even military ties at a moment of shifting geopolitical alliances.

如今，中国在多个清洁能源领域居于主导地位，这使其能够通过在全球销售和资助能源技术来扩大其影响力范围。在地缘政治格局不断变化之际，这些关系使中国能够建立持续数十年甚至更长时间的金融、文化乃至军事联系。

The projects read like a world atlas. Beijing is working on deals to supply nuclear reactors to countries like Turkey that once did business mainly with the United States and Europe. In Pakistan, China is already building what will be the country’s largest nuclear plant.

这些项目仿佛形成了一张世界地图。北京正向土耳其等传统欧美客户供应核反应堆。在巴基斯坦，中国已经在建设该国最大的核电站。

Chinese firms are building wind turbines in Brazil and electric vehicles in Indonesia. In northern Kenya, Chinese developers have erected Africa’s biggest wind farm. And across the continent, in countries rich with minerals needed for clean energy technologies, such as Zambia, Chinese financing for all sorts of projects has left some governments deeply in debt to Chinese banks.

中国企业正在巴西建造风力涡轮机，在印度尼西亚生产电动车。在肯尼亚北部建成了非洲最大的风力发电场。而在非洲各地，比如赞比亚等富含清洁能源技术所需矿产的国家，中国为各种项目提供的融资使多国政府深陷对华债务。

Since 2023, Chinese companies have announced $168 billion in foreign investments in clean energy manufacturing, generation and transmission, according to Climate Energy Finance, a research group.

根据研究机构气候能源金融的数据，自2023年以来，中国企业宣布的在海外清洁能源制造、发电和输电领域的投资达到1680亿美元。

来源：气候能源金融（CEF） 注：圆形大小按投资价值确定。“其他”包括水电项目、输配电网络以及绿色氢能。

“They are dominating these markets,” said Dr. Turner of the Woodrow Wilson Center. “And market dominance can be a form of soft power.”

“他们正在主导这些市场，”伍德罗·威尔逊中心的特纳说，“而市场主导权就是一种软实力。”

The Trump administration is taking a different road. By dismantling a vast network of foreign aid programs, it has abandoned America’s longstanding strategy for projecting soft power.

特朗普政府正在走一条不同的道路。通过取消庞大的对外援助项目网络，它已经放弃了美国投射软实力的长期战略。

In its place it is taking a more transactional approach with other countries. In Saudi Arabia, for example, while the Chinese are building a battery project there, the United States recently agreed to a major arms sale, and an American company agreed to set up rare-earth mining, processing and magnet manufacturing. And it is moving aggressively to sell other countries more fossil fuels.

取而代之的是一种更具交易性的往来。例如，在沙特阿拉伯，当中方正在当地建设一个电池项目时，美国最近批准了一项重大的军售，还有一家美国企业同意在那里建立稀土开采、加工和磁铁制造项目。美国还在积极推动向其他国家销售更多的化石燃料。

Mr. Trump, who last year accepted more than $75 million in campaign donations from oil and gas executives, promised to “drill, baby, drill” and deliver an era of “energy dominance.” In his first few months he has tried to clear the way for more exports and to nudge foreign governments to buy more American gas.

去年收取油气巨头超7500万美元政治献金的特朗普，承诺开启“钻探吧，宝贝，钻探吧”（指油气能源开采。——译注）主导的能源时代。上任数月即扫清出口障碍，敦促外国政府增加购买美国天然气。

Ukraine, for example, is desperate to maintain military supplies from the United States and has signaled it would buy more American gas. It’s another example of the administration’s aggressive approach, even with friends.

连乌克兰这样急需美国军援的国家，也不得不表态将购买更多美国天然气。这再次印证本届政府即使对盟友也采取强势策略。

America gets “geopolitical leverage from oil and gas,” said Varun Sivaram, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who helped write clean energy policy for the Biden administration. “The energy transition is actually very bad for the United States,” he said, “because we cede geopolitical and economic ground to a rival in China.”

“油气赋予美国地缘政治杠杆，”曾为拜登政府起草清洁能源政策的外交关系委员会研究员瓦伦·西瓦拉姆坦言。“能源转型实际上对美国非常不利，因为我们把地缘政治和经济阵地拱手让给了中国这个竞争对手。”

What Will the World Buy?

世界将购买什么？

The future is being defined one deal at a time. The United States is pressing South Korea and Japan to buy more Alaskan natural gas and invest in a huge, longshot pipeline project there. China has been demanding that the European Union allow electric cars from China into its large market, although that could cause widespread job losses in Europe’s own car industry.

未来格局正由一个个具体交易塑造。美国施压韩日购买阿拉斯加天然气，投资那里的一个前景不明的巨型管道项目。中国则要求欧盟向中国电动车开放市场——此举可能导致欧洲汽车业大规模失业。

There is unlikely to be an immediate winner in this global race. The world is only becoming more energy-hungry, stoking an appetite for both solar panels and oil, nuclear and natural gas.

这场全球竞赛不太可能立即分出胜负。世界对能源的需求只会越来越大，太阳能电池板与石油、核能及天然气均不可或缺。

That may work well both for Beijing and for Washington in the short term. The United States still has many customers for its enormous stores of oil, gas and coal. Roughly 80 percent of global energy needs are still met by fossil fuels.

短期内，这可能对北京和华盛顿都有利。美国庞大的油气煤储备仍有众多买家，全球约80%的能源需求仍依赖化石燃料。

But that proportion is widely expected to decline. The International Energy Agency forecasts that by midcentury, oil, gas and coal will fall below 60 percent of global energy needs.

但普遍预计该比例将出现下降。国际能源署预测，到本世纪中叶，化石燃料在全球能源需求中所占比例将降至60%以下。

And China is positioned to pick up the extra business.

而中国已准备好接下这些多出来的生意。

“When the federal government of the United States decides to go out of the race, it doesn’t stop the race,” said Rafael Dubeux, a senior official in Brazil’s Finance Ministry. “Other countries keep moving.”

“当美国政府决定退赛时，竞赛并不会因此而停止，”巴西财政部高级官员拉斐尔·杜贝克斯说。“其他国家仍在前进。”

山西一处旧煤矿附近的太阳能电池板。

The Justice Department announced charges on Tuesday against two Chinese citizens accused of trying to gather military information and help recruit sources from within the U.S. Navy.

司法部周二宣布对两名中国公民提起指控，他们被控试图收集军事信息，并帮助从美国海军内部招募线人。

Yuance Chen, 38, of Oregon, and Liren Lai, 39, a Chinese citizen in the United States on a tourist visa, were charged with working for years to help the Chinese foreign intelligence service, the Ministry of State Security.

38岁的俄勒冈州居民陈远策（音）和39岁持旅游签证在美的中国公民赖立人（音）被控多年来为中国对外情报机构——国家安全部工作。

The two men were arrested on Friday as part of a sprawling counterintelligence investigation by the F.B.I. They face charges of acting as undeclared agents of the Chinese government.

两名男子于周五被捕，系联邦调查局大规模反间谍调查的一部分。两人面临的指控是充当中国政府的未注册代理人。

The episode comes as the Trump administration tries to more aggressively confront China on a host of issues, including national security, trade and immigration.

这一事件发生之际，特朗普政府正试图在国家安全、贸易和移民等一系列问题上对华采取更强硬立场。

In a statement, Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Justice Department would “not stand by while hostile nations embed spies in our country.”

司法部长帕姆·邦迪在一份声明中表示，司法部“不会坐视敌对国家在我国安插间谍”。

According to the criminal complaint filed by the department, Mr. Lai recruited Mr. Chen about four years ago to work on behalf of the Ministry of State Security. An F.B.I. affidavit said that those efforts included arranging a “dead drop” of $10,000 from Guangzhou, China, for another Chinese intelligence asset in Livermore, Calif., by leaving a backpack stuffed with cash at a locker in a recreational complex.

根据司法部刑事起诉书，赖立人大约在四年前招募陈远策为中国国家安全部工作。FBI的一份宣誓书称，这些行动包括安排“秘密交接点”，从中国广州向加州利弗莫尔的另一名中国情报人员提供1万美元，方法是把一个装满现金的背包放在一个娱乐中心的储物柜里。

That money, according to the F.B.I., was payment for information related to U.S. national security.

据FBI称，这笔钱是为获取与美国国家安全有关的信息而支付的报酬。

The pair also worked to gather information about people serving in the U.S. Navy, and to help Chinese intelligence efforts to recruit intelligence assets in the American military, the complaint added.

起诉书还称，两人还努力收集在美国海军服役人员的信息，并帮助中国情报部门在美国军方招募情报人员。

In one instance, Mr. Chen stopped by a recruitment center in San Gabriel, Calif., where he gathered identifying information for potential recruits that he then shared with an intelligence officer in China. In another instance, according to the complaint, Mr. Chen reached out to a Navy service member over social media, and supplied information about that person to the Ministry of State Security.

根据起诉书的描述，陈远策曾造访加利福尼亚州圣盖博的一个征兵中心，在那里收集潜在新兵的身份信息，然后发给中国的一名情报官员。起诉书还称，陈远策曾通过社交媒体联系了一名海军服役人员，并向国家安全部提供了此人的信息。

The charging documents also asserted that a broader network of people in the United States working at the behest of Chinese intelligence officers aided the pair’s efforts. One of those people, who is not named in court papers, had been working since as early as 2015 to carry out “various clandestine operations in the United States,” according to the F.B.I. affidavit in the case.

起诉文件还提出，美国境内存在一个受中国情报官员指使的更大网络协助二人行动。根据FBI在该案中的宣誓书，其中一名未具名人士早在2015年就开始在美国开展“各种秘密行动”。

The scheme also involved covert communication tools provided by the Ministry of State Security that enabled the Chinese spy agency to communicate with assets in the United States.

该计划还涉及国家安全部提供的秘密通讯工具，使中国间谍机构能够与美国境内的线人进行联系。

Remember the fairy tale of globalization?

还记得全球化的童话吗？

Once upon a time, many Americans believed China would inevitably become more like us just by plugging into the world trading order that we established and maybe, as President Bill Clinton once suggested, even democratize. The final victory of American-led neoliberalism was close at hand.

曾几何时，有不少美国人相信，只要将中国纳入我们建立起来的世界贸易秩序，它就不可避免地会变得更像我们，而且或许像克林顿总统曾经暗示的那样，甚至走向民主化。美国主导的新自由主义的最终胜利近在咫尺。

Mr. Clinton and others like him weren’t entirely wrong. China has spent decades emulating key elements of the American model of entrepreneurialism, consumerism and integration with global markets. It made China an industrial power, with a large middle class, cutting-edge science and technology, and global brands like Huawei, Lenovo and Alibaba. China’s 1.4 billion people live far more diverse and prosperous lifestyles than ever. Through it all, America was the model.

克林顿和其他持类似观点的人并非完全错了。中国几十年来一直在效仿美国模式中的企业家精神、消费主义、融入全球市场等关键要素。这已使中国成为一个工业强国，孕育出庞大的中产阶级以及尖端的科学技术，还有华为、联想、阿里巴巴等全球品牌。14亿中国人享受着前所未有的富足与多元。在此过程中，美国是参照的蓝本。

What neither Americans nor Chinese imagined was how much this would become a two-way street.

美国人和中国人都始料未及的是，这个进程最后变成了一个双向通道。

In the great contest of ideas and influence between the two countries, the pendulum seems as if it’s swinging back the other way. Donald Trump’s return to office has made clear that in important respects — democratic erosion, the fixation on strong borders, the curbing of free speech and numerous other examples — America is starting to look a bit more like China.

在这场美中思想与影响力的宏大博弈中，钟摆似乎像朝着另一个方向摆动。特朗普总统的再次当选已清楚地表明，在一些重要方面，美国已开始变得有几分像中国：对民主制度的侵蚀，对边境管控的执念、对言论自由的限制，还有许多其他的例子。

I’ve lived in Shanghai since 2008, with a front-row seat to the culmination of China’s rise. There is indeed much that America can learn from China. But perhaps the most important lesson is to stay true to who we are as a nation. That’s what China did. It adopted aspects of the American way that would make it strong again, while sticking to its core system of Communist Party political domination and heavy state involvement in everything. And it has been spectacularly successful.

自2008年定居上海以来，我亲历了中国崛起的巅峰时刻。美国确有很多可向中国借鉴之处，但最重要的启示或许是：坚守我们的立国之本。中国正是这么做的。它吸收了美国模式中一些让中国再次强大的方面，同时始终坚持自己的基本制度，即中共的政治主导地位和国家高度参与所有事务。这个做法取得了惊人的成功。

Trump’s America, on the other hand, is beginning to seem as if it’s taking cues from China’s political model. That’s not who we are.

另一方面，特朗普上台后的美国似乎开始模仿中国的政治模式。这绝非我们的立国之道。

The MAGA movement and its leaders demonize the Chinese Communist Party. But some of their actions validate the party’s ways, showing that practically speaking, they seem to want similar things.

虽然“让美国再次伟大”（简称MAGA）运动及其领导人对中共妖魔化，但他们的一些行为却是对中共做法的认同，表明他们其实似乎想得到类似的东西。

Both push a muscular patriotism, are obsessed with manufacturing and hostile to immigrants. Both want a country where ethnic minorities are expected to bow to the dominant group and traditional gender roles are enforced. And all of this is presided over by a domineering ruling party led by an autocrat who flatters himself with military parades. Imitation is indeed the highest form of flattery.

中共和MAGA运动都推崇强烈的爱国主义，都对制造业着迷，对移民持敌视态度。它们都想要一个少数族裔被要求屈从于主体族群、传统性别角色得到强化的国家。而且所有这一切都是在一个专制的执政党领导下，这个执政党的领袖用阅兵式来展示自命不凡。效仿的确是最高形式的奉承。

The evidence mounts daily.

这方面的证据与日俱增。

China weaponizes its economy to punish trading partners over various disputes or mere slights; the Trump administration squeezes U.S. allies with arbitrary tariffs or other retaliation over issues such as fentanyl and politics.

中国将经济武器化，因为各种争端或只是微小的冒犯便惩罚贸易伙伴；特朗普政府则通过随意加征关税或采取其他报复手段，对美国的盟友施压，理由包括芬太尼问题或政治分歧等。

Geopolitically, China prioritizes relationships of convenience, such as its ties with Russia, over formal alliances. It bullies its neighbors, stoking territorial disputes with a mentality summed up by former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who bluntly told Southeast Asian officials in 2010 that “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact.” Mr. Trump, too, sees little value in alliances and seems intent on alienating friends and neighbors with his threats to absorb Canada and Greenland and moving to rename the Gulf of Mexico.

在地缘政治层面，中国将权宜关系置于正式的盟友关系之上，比如与俄罗斯的关系。中国欺凌邻国、挑起领土争端的心态已被前外交部长杨洁篪暴露无遗，他在2010年直言不讳地告诉东南亚的官员们：“中国是大国，其他国家是小国，这只是一个事实。”特朗普也认为联盟没有多少价值，他威胁吞并加拿大和格陵兰岛、重新命名墨西哥湾的做法，无不显露疏离友邻的意图。

Economically, Americans have long criticized China for overemphasizing manufacturing and flooding world markets with Chinese goods while neglecting to spur the domestic consumption that would balance its economy and trade. But much like Mr. Xi, MAGA leaders see manufacturing as noble, and globalization as turning Americans into passive consumers.

在经济方面，美国人长期以来批评中国过分强调制造业，向世界市场倾销中国商品，却忽视了国内消费的发展，让中国的经济和贸易发展失衡。但MAGA运动的领导人与习近平差不多，也把制造业视为崇高行业，认为全球化将美国人变成了被动消费者。

The U.S. and Chinese political systems are of course fundamentally different at their core. But our domestic politics increasingly track closer to China’s as the Trump administration undermines basic constitutional rights and the judicial process and casts a chill over free speech and protest.

诚然，美中政治制度在本质上存在根本差别。但随着特朗普政府削弱宪法赋予的基本权利、破坏司法程序、压制言论自由与抗议活动，美国国内的政治环境与中国越来越相似。

As different as the United States and China are, deeply similar national conditions are driving this convergence.

尽管美中差别巨大，但深层次上高度相似的国情正在推动两国趋同。

China leaned into the American model to rebuild industrially and catch up to the West. Today, it is America that is worried about falling behind. People in both countries worry about artificial intelligence and automation taking jobs and changing how we work, live and interact as a society. Many disillusioned young people in both countries feel left out of their nation’s economies and wonder what’s the point of pursuing careers.

中国在实现工业振兴、追赶西方时曾向美国模式倾斜。如今，担忧落后的却是美国。两国人民都担心人工智能和自动化会抢走就业机会，改变我们的工作、生活以及参与社会互动的方式。两国都有不少失意的年轻人觉得他们被国内经济甩在了后面，甚至质疑职业追求的意义何在。

These shared challenges, not surprisingly, lead to similarly populist political solutions. For Mr. Xi, it’s the Chinese Dream, his patriotic vision of a China restored to its ancient prosperity and power. Mr. Trump has ridden its younger sibling, “Make America Great Again,” to two election victories.

一点也不奇怪的是，这些共同的挑战导致两国都采取了类似的民粹主义政治解决方案。对习近平来说，就是所谓的“中国梦”，是他为恢复中国古代曾经有过的繁荣和强大提出的爱国主义愿景。这个愿景的小弟弟——“让美国再次伟大”的理念已让特朗普两次赢得了总统大选。

Much of what China does is worthy of respect. Its government makes farsighted industrial policy as a matter of habit. It proactively presents new technologies like artificial intelligence to its people as positive forces, introducing them in ways that benefit the public, such as in education and health care. China is aggressively transitioning to renewable energy, and new estimates indicate that its greenhouse gas emissions — the world’s highest — have begun to fall for the first time. China has clean, safe, efficient and high-tech cities, knit together by immaculate highways and a state-of-the-art rail network. Government funding and investment is flowing into education, science and technology.

中国的许多做法值得钦佩。中国政府制定富有远见的产业政策已成常态。主动把人工智能等新技术作为一种积极力量向老百姓推广，通过教育和医疗等公共服务惠及大众。中国正全力转向可再生能源，新的评估表明，曾是全球最高的中国温室气体排放量现已首次开始下降。中国有清洁、安全、高效的智慧型城市，它们通过整洁如新的高速公路和最先进的铁路网络紧密相连。政府还一直在教育和科技领域投入源源不断的资金。

It’s natural for Americans who want a better future to look, albeit grudgingly, at what China has achieved. To be sure, leaders in Beijing don’t have a messy democracy to get in the way of their plans, but that’s hardly the only reason for China’s success. It came also from strategic foresight, investing in the future, a sense of national focus and unity — not division — that comes from the top and millions of individuals working hard to build the country up. China followed America’s lead, but it stuck to its own systems and stayed focused on meeting the basic needs of its population.

渴望更美好未来的美国人自然会关注中国取得的成就，纵使不情愿。确实，中国领导人在制定计划时无需受制于纷乱的民主程序，但这远非中国成功的唯一原因。战略远见、投资未来、一种自上而下的国家专注和团结（而非分裂）意识以及亿万民众建设国家的辛勤耕耘共同铸就了今日的成果。中国学习了美国的榜样，但坚持自己的制度，并始终把注意力集中在满足民众的基本需求上。

The United States can and should consider adopting some of what has worked for China, such as transitioning to renewables; revitalizing industrial policy; supporting science, research and education; reinvesting in infrastructure, housing and safe cities; and above all, having a sense of collective purpose that leads to national strength.

美国可以而且应该考虑借鉴一些中国行之有效的做法，例如向可再生能源转型，振兴产业政策，支持科研教育，重新投资基础设施、住房和安全城市项目，尤其需要培育能转化为国力的集体使命意识。

Instead, Mr. Trump’s administration is undermining or slashing funding for critical things such as public safety, infrastructure, education, scientific research, clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, while fanning political divisions.

特朗普政府目前的做法却是在削弱或大幅削减关键领域的资金，如公共安全、基础设施、教育、科学研究、清洁能源，以及半导体制造，同时煽动政治对立。

We can learn from China, but we must find a way to make it work while remaining true to our founding principles. Otherwise, when the smoke clears from the Trump era, America might not be “great again,” but weaker. And we will have found that the student has become the master.

我们可以向中国学习，但我们需要找到一个既行之有效、又坚守我们立国精神的方法。否则，特朗普时代的迷雾散去后，美国也许不是“再次伟大”，而是变得更弱。届时我们会发现，以前的学生已变成了师傅。

Travelers in China have been caught off guard in recent days when they arrived at airports to be told they could not bring certain portable batteries aboard their flights.

最近几天，中国的一些乘机旅客到机场后才知道部分移动电源被禁止带上飞机，这让他们措手不及。

The country’s aviation regulator has implemented an emergency ban on some portable batteries aboard flights. The ban, which went into effect Saturday after just two days’ notice, came as the regulator warned of growing risks to the aviation industry from batteries, millions of which have been recently recalled.

中国民航监管机构发布了一项禁止旅客将某些充电宝带上航班的紧急通知。这项仅提前两天发布的禁令已于伤周六生效。监管机构此前曾对充电宝给民用航空带来的危险日益加大发出警告，近期已有几百万块充电宝被召回。

Airlines and governments around the world have tightened regulations on the use of portable batteries on flights this year. But while other airlines have largely issued guidelines on the in-flight use and storage of portable batteries, China’s order prohibits passengers from taking some batteries on board planes altogether.

今年以来，世界各地的航空公司和政府加强了对飞机上使用充电宝的监管。其他国家的航空公司主要发布的是有关机上使用和存放移动电池的指南，中国的措施则是完全禁止乘客携带部分充电宝上飞机。

The change has caused confusion and consternation among travelers, with some complaining that they had been forced to discard their portable batteries, an increasingly common accessory in modern life, while traveling.

新禁令在旅客中引发了困惑和震惊，一些人抱怨说，他们被迫丢弃了充电宝，而这是现代人旅行时越来越常见的随身携带物品。

The notice of the ban, issued by China’s Civil Aviation Administration on Thursday, stated that portable batteries that were not clearly marked as having a Chinese safety certification would not be allowed on flights. Batteries that had been recalled were also prohibited.

中国民用航空局上周四发布的紧急通知规定，旅客禁止携带没有清楚的中国强制性产品认证（即所谓的3C认证）的充电宝乘坐境内航班。被禁止携带的还包括被召回的充电宝。

The aviation authority said the batteries posed a safety risk, citing recent recalls of the devices by manufacturers and episodes of portable batteries catching fire on board planes. China’s market regulator has also suspended or revoked the certifications of a number of portable battery and battery cell manufacturers, the aviation authority said.

民航局表示，这些电池存在安全隐患，并以制造商最近召回充电宝、充电宝在飞机上起火冒烟事件为例。民航局还说，中国市场监管机构已撤销或暂停了多个充电宝和电池芯厂家的3C认证。

These factors “demonstrate that portable batteries carried by travelers contain hidden safety and quality dangers, and the risks they pose to the safe operation of civil aviation continues to grow,” the notice said.

“上述情况表明旅客随身携带的充电宝存在安全质量隐患，给民航安全运行带来的风险持续增大，”通知说。

In past weeks, two major Chinese battery companies have recalled millions of power banks in China and the United States, citing problems with lithium-ion battery cells made by suppliers.

过去几周，中国两家主要的电池企业在中国和美国召回了数百万块移动电源产品，原因是供应商提供的锂电池芯有问题。

In June, Anker, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of the batteries, issued a recall for more than one million power banks sold in the United States because it said the lithium-ion battery inside could pose a fire risk.

今年6月，全球最大的移动电源制造商之一安克宣布，在美国市场召回100多万个充电宝，称里面的锂电池可能存在燃烧风险。

Later that month, the company recalled seven models in China, totaling about 700,000 batteries, according to local news media.

当月晚些时候，安克召回了中国市场上销售的七款移动电源产品。据国内媒体报道，被召回的充电宝数量逾70万块。

Anker then issued a global voluntary recall for another five models, saying that it had identified a potential issue with lithium-ion battery cells provided by a vendor, which it did not name.

安克随后宣布在全球自愿召回另外五款移动电源产品，称公司发现为其提供锂电池芯的一家供应商存在潜在问题，但没有透露该供应商的名字。

Romoss, another Chinese battery maker, in June recalled three models of batteries, totaling nearly 500,000 products, because of an issue with their supplier-provided battery cells.

另一家中国电池制造商罗马仕已在今年6月召回了三款移动电源产品，共计近50万块，原因是供应商提供的电芯有问题。

Even before the recalls, several airlines in Asia had changed their rules on portable batteries after a fire destroyed an Air Busan plane on the tarmac in South Korea in January. There is no definitive link between portable batteries and that fire, and an investigation is underway.

在这些召回之前，今年1月，韩国釜山航空的一架客机在停机坪起火焚毁后，几家亚洲航空公司已改变了允许乘客携带移动电池的规定。不过，目前尚无证据表明这起火灾与移动电源存在明确联系，失火原因仍在调查中。

One day after 14 American 30,000-pound bombs thundered down on Iran, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry issued a typically florid public statement through its state-run media, claiming the United States had “violently trampled down the territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state.”

14枚3万磅重的美国炸弹呼啸着落在伊朗后第二天，朝鲜外务省通过其官方媒体发表了一份典型的堆砌辞藻的公开声明，声称美国“粗暴地践踏了一个主权国家的领土完整和安全利益”。

Unlike North Korea, Iran doesn’t yet have a nuclear weapon. But for North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, America’s airstrikes on Iran’s aspirational nuclear infrastructure must have reinforced what he has long held to be true: that possessing nuclear weapons is vital for his and his nation’s survival. Would the United States carry out such a brash, pre-emptive operation if Iran could credibly strike back with the bomb?

与朝鲜不同，伊朗还没有核武器。但对朝鲜领导人金正恩来说，被伊朗寄以厚望的核基础设施遭到美国空袭肯定强化了他长期以来的看法：拥有核武器对他和他的国家的生存至关重要。如果伊朗具备用核弹进行反击的可靠能力，美国还会采取如此强横的先发制人行动吗？

This calculus has been at the forefront of Mr. Kim’s mind since taking power from his father more than a decade ago. Nothing has diverted him from driving North Korea’s military, industrial and science communities to develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles that put targets on the United States and its allies.

自十多年前从父亲手中接过政权以来，金正恩一直在盘算着这个问题。没有什么能阻止他推动朝鲜军事、工业和科学界发展核武器和远程导弹，将目标对准美国及其盟国。

And remarkably, he’s accomplished those tasks. Despite decades-long efforts by the United States and other world powers to persuade North Korea off the nuclear path, the small, isolated nation is estimated to have assembled around 50 warheads and produced enough fissile material for up to 40 more. Its arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles can very likely target every major U.S. city, and thousands of additional missiles are currently in range of U.S. military bases across the Asia-Pacific.

令人瞩目的是，他完成了这些任务。尽管美国和其他世界大国数十年来一直在努力劝说朝鲜放弃核道路，但这个孤立的小国据估计已经组装了大约50枚弹头，并生产了足够多的裂变材料，可以再生产40枚弹头。朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹武库很可能可以瞄准美国的所有主要城市，另外还有数以千计的导弹，目前射程已经覆盖美国在亚太地区的全部军事基地。

The internet is awash with photos of Mr. Kim observing missile tests, meeting with scientists designing those missiles and touring yawning complexes that produce bomb-grade atomic fuel. Mr. Kim wants the world to know that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, already formidable, is advancing each day.

互联网上充斥着金正恩观察导弹试验、与设计这些导弹的科学家会面以及参观生产炸弹级原子燃料的庞大建筑群的照片。金正恩希望全世界都知道，朝鲜的核武器计划已经非常强大，而且每天都在进步。

Unlike with Iran, President Trump is not threatening war to disarm North Korea. In fact, five months into his second term, he doesn’t seem to be paying much attention at all, even as Mr. Kim has grown stronger through new nuclear weapons, missiles and alliances. If the United States was unable to inflict irreversible damage to Iran’s nuclear program through airstrikes, as some early intelligence suggests, it’s difficult to imagine the sort of sustained campaign that would be needed to succeed in North Korea.

与伊朗不同，特朗普总统并没有威胁用战争来解除朝鲜的武装。事实上，他的第二任期已经开始五个月，但他似乎根本没花多少心思在这上面，即使金正恩已凭借新的核武器、导弹和联盟变得更加强大。如果美国无法通过空袭对伊朗的核计划造成不可逆的破坏（如一些早期情报所显示的那样），那么在朝鲜取得成功所需的那种持续行动也是很难想象的。

Now that the flurry of military activity to neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambitions has died down, the intractable problem of North Korea’s program looms even larger. There are no outward signs that a similar mission is being considered. And it shouldn’t be. Let’s think instead about a more promising way forward.

如今遏制伊朗核野心的一系列军事活动已经平息，朝鲜核计划的棘手问题就显得更加突出起来。目前还没有迹象表明有类似的任务正在考虑之中。也不应该考虑。让我们思考一下更值得期待的未来之路。

Mr. Kim has repeatedly made it clear that he has no intention of giving up the program, seeing it as essential to ensuring his family’s hold on power. But Republican and Democratic presidents alike have nevertheless spent a quarter-century seeking North Korea’s “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.” (In 2021, President Joe Biden invited talks with Pyongyang with no preconditions, but that offer went nowhere.) This year, Mr. Trump became the latest commander in chief to publicly commit to the unrealistic goal of getting Mr. Kim to abandon his program altogether.

金正恩曾多次明确表示，他无意放弃该计划，并将其视为确保其家族掌权的关键。然而，美国两党的总统依然用了四分之一个世纪来寻求朝鲜实现“完全、可核查和不可逆转的无核化”。（2021年，拜登总统邀请平壤举行没有先决条件的会谈，但这一提议不了了之。）今年，特朗普成为最新一位公开承诺让金正恩彻底放弃核计划这一不切实际目标的统帅。

America can no longer afford for its outdated denuclearization demands to be an obstacle to kick-starting diplomacy. Though Washington does not officially acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, the U.S. military already plans and conducts drills based on the fact that North Korea has a nuclear arsenal. Mr. Trump, himself, has publicly said on at least three occasions that it is a nuclear power. Acknowledging this as a diplomatic fact is a difficult decision, to be sure, but it is also necessary to achieve a breakthrough that can reduce tensions, avert unwanted war and prevent hundreds of new weapons from entering North Korea’s ever-growing arsenal.

美国不能再让过时的无核化要求成为启动外交的障碍。虽然美国没有正式承认朝鲜是拥核国家，但美国军方已经根据朝鲜拥有核武库的事实来计划和进行演习。特朗普本人也至少三次公开表示，朝鲜是一个核大国。诚然，承认这是一个外交事实是一个艰难的决定，但这也是实现突破的必要条件，这可以缓解紧张局势，避免不必要的战争，并防止数百件新武器进入朝鲜不断增长的武器库。

The Trump administration should draw up a diplomatic road map that would freeze North Korea’s fast-growing nuclear program in place in exchange for relief from the sanctions that have crippled the nation’s economy. The policy upheaval is almost certain to trigger backlash from South Korea and Japan, the U.S. allies most directly threatened by North Korea’s nuclear program, and stoke concerns among other nations for rewarding North Korea’s bad behavior. But a change in approach is necessary to begin managing the mounting risks.

特朗普政府应该制定一份外交路线图，冻结朝鲜快速发展的核计划，以换取减轻对朝鲜经济的制裁。这一政策变动几乎肯定会引发韩国和日本的强烈反对，这两个国家是美国的盟友，受到朝鲜核计划最直接的威胁，同时也会引发其他国家对“奖励朝鲜恶行”的担忧。但要开始管理不断增加的风险，就必须改变做法。

To understand the scope and sprawl of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, The Times examined dozens of commercial satellite and state-issued propaganda images collected by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Based on these images, it is hard to envision how Mr. Kim’s multibillion-dollar, yearslong investment in his nuclear and missile complex — spread across 28 sites, with likely many others underground — can ever be entirely dismantled. Acknowledging that reality, and getting Mr. Kim back to the negotiating table, is the only way to contain the growing threat that North Korea poses.

为了了解朝鲜核武器计划的范围和规模，时报研究了明德大学詹姆斯·马丁防扩散研究中心收集的数十幅商业卫星和国家发行的宣传图片。根据这些图片，我们很难想象金正恩耗资数十亿美元、耗时数年的核与导弹综合体（分布在28个地点，可能还有许多地下场所）可以怎样被完全拆除。承认这一现实、让金正恩回到谈判桌前，这是遏制朝鲜日益增长的威胁的唯一途径。

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, then Washington’s approach to North Korea certainly meets that mark. The United States has never had formal diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, a policy that no longer makes sense with thousands of centrifuges spinning in North Korea all day, every day. If nothing is done, North Korea’s stockpile will continue to grow, narrowing its gap with the eight other nuclear powers.

如果疯狂的定义是一再地做同样的事情却期待不同的结果，那么华盛顿对待朝鲜的方式无疑符合这一标准。美国从未与平壤建立过正式外交关系，鉴于朝鲜每天都有数以千计的离心机在运转，这种政策已不再有意义。如果不采取任何措施，朝鲜的核武库将继续增长，从而缩小与其他八个核大国的差距。

朝鲜已将其核工业存在扩大到全国。

Yongbyon

宁边

The focus of every denuclearization proposal that the United States has made to North Korea has included the complex at Yongbyon. Comprising hundreds of buildings peppered across about 10 square miles of low-lying hills, the Yongbyon nuclear complex produces North Korea’s plutonium, along with highly enriched uranium and tritium — all materials necessary to make thermonuclear weapons.

美国向朝鲜提出的每一项无核化建议的重点都包括宁边的核设施。宁边核设施由数百座建筑组成，分布在约2600公顷的低洼丘陵地带，生产钚、高浓缩铀和氚——制造热核武器所需的所有材料。

Source: Image via Planet Labs, analysis by the Open Source Team at the Middlebury Institute

Initial construction began at Yongbyon in the 1960s following an atomic energy agreement with the Soviet Union. In 1991, North Korea lost its largest benefactor when the Soviet Union dissolved; the United States subsequently withdrew all its nuclear weapons deployed to South Korea. North and South Korea signed the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which led to the term “denuclearization” being ensconced in the political lexicon.

20世纪60年代，在与苏联达成原子能协议后，宁边核设施开始了建设。1991年，苏联解体，朝鲜失去了最大的资助者；美国随后撤回了部署在韩国的所有核武器。朝韩签署了《朝鲜半岛无核化共同宣言》，“无核化”一词由此进入了政治词汇。The Federation of American Scientists, a Washington-based nonprofit, estimated in 2024 that North Korea had produced up to 4,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium and 178 pounds of plutonium. The country can potentially make enough material to build half a dozen new weapons annually.

据总部位于华盛顿的非营利组织美国科学家联合会在2024年的估计，朝鲜已经生产了多达约1800公斤高浓缩铀和80公斤钚。该国每年有可能生产出足够制造六件新武器的材料。

Emboldened by advancements in weapons production, Mr. Kim first said in 2021 that he would expand his weapons program beyond city-busting hydrogen bombs to start building smaller-yield “tactical” nuclear warheads that are designed to fit on short-range missiles for regional targets. He has since said he’s developed enough of the smaller warheads, which are designed to be mounted on at least eight delivery systems, including a submarine drone.

由于武器生产的进步，金正恩在2021年首次表示，他将扩大武器计划，不再局限于摧毁城市的氢弹，而是开始制造当量较小的“战术”核弹头，这些弹头可安装在短程导弹上，用于攻击地区目标。他后来表示，他已经开发出足够多的小型弹头，设计用于安装在至少八个运载系统上，包括一种无人潜航器。

Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site

丰溪里核试验场

After U.S. military forces invaded Iraq and deposed Saddam Hussein in 2003, North Korea pushed ahead with its missile and nuclear programs. In Pyongyang, the invasion was seen as a grim warning: Mr. Hussein didn’t have the bomb and he lost his power, then, ultimately, his life. North Korea wouldn’t make the same mistake.

2003年美国军队入侵伊拉克并推翻萨达姆·侯赛因后，朝鲜继续推进其导弹和核项目。在平壤，入侵被视为一个严峻的警告：侯赛因没有核弹失去了权力，最终失去了生命。朝鲜不会重蹈覆辙。

Its first nuclear weapon test took place underground in 2006 at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in the country’s mountainous northeast, making North Korea the first and only nation to test a nuclear weapon since all other nations stopped doing so nearly a decade earlier.

2006年，朝鲜在位于该国东北部山区的丰溪里核试验场进行了首次地下核武器试验，成为自近十年前所有其他国家停止核武器试验以来第一个也是唯一一个进行核武器试验的国家。

The detonation, which was picked up by seismic and radiation sensors around the world, sent the international community in a tailspin. World leaders subsequently persuaded North Korea in 2007 to again agree to shut down a reactor at Yongbyon and invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into the country for verification. It did both, but after diplomatic efforts later collapsed, inspections were no longer allowed and the reactor was restarted.

这次爆炸被世界各地的地震和辐射传感器捕捉到，使国际社会为之震惊。随后，世界各国领导人在2007年说服朝鲜再次同意关闭宁边的一座反应堆，并邀请国际原子能机构核查人员进入朝鲜进行核查。朝鲜两件事都做了，但在外交努力失败后，朝鲜不再允许核查，反应堆重新启动。

Source: Image via Planet Labs, analysis by the Open Source Team at the Middlebury Institute

North Korea has since tested five more devices at the site, and America’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said in March that Mr. Kim was very likely preparing for another one. In 2018, parts of the site were blown up in an apparent show of good faith before a planned summit with Mr. Trump. The summit was canceled, and today, Middlebury analysis shows that North Korea has rebuilt the buildings and a tunnel entrance that were destroyed.

此后，朝鲜又在该试验场测试了五个装置，美国国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德3月表示，金正恩很可能正在准备另一个装置。2018年，在计划与特朗普举行峰会之前，朝鲜炸毁了该场址的部分设施，显然是为了表示诚意。后来，峰会被取消，今天，明德大学的分析显示，朝鲜已经重建了被摧毁的建筑物和隧道入口。North Korea’s emerging strategic partnership marks one of the biggest opportunities for Pyongyang since the Cold War. For most of North Korea’s existence, China has been its staunchest ally. Beijing sent military forces to fight against the United States in the Korean War, and it has been its strongest trade partner and benefactor.

朝鲜正在形成的战略伙伴关系标志着平壤自冷战以来最大的机会之一。在朝鲜存在的大部分时间里，中国一直是其最坚定的盟友。在朝鲜战争中，北京曾派出军队与美国作战，并且一直是朝鲜最强大的贸易伙伴和捐助者。

Last June, Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact with Russia. Analysts believe Moscow is already providing North Korea with hard-won expertise on missile technology, helping it improve manufacturing practices, produce lightweight composite materials and capture performance data from missiles used on the Ukrainian battlefield. There are even recent reports that Russia is lending its assistance to North Korea’s nuclear submarine program.

去年6月，平壤与俄罗斯签署了共同防御条约。分析人士认为，莫斯科已经在向朝鲜提供来之不易的导弹技术专业知识，帮助朝鲜改进制造工艺，生产轻质复合材料，并从乌克兰战场上使用的导弹中获取性能数据。最近甚至有报道称，俄罗斯正在协助朝鲜的核潜艇项目。

Sohae

西海

Although North Korea built and tested missiles under Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather, it wasn’t until the younger Kim took over in 2011 that the program matured after hundreds of tests. Many missile components are tested at Sohae Satellite Launching Station, located alongside the Yellow Sea, about 50 miles from Yongbyon.

虽然朝鲜在金正恩的父亲和祖父领导下建造并测试了导弹，但直到年轻的金正恩于2011年接手后，经过数百次测试，朝鲜的导弹项目才逐渐成熟起来。许多导弹部件都在西海卫星发射站进行测试，该发射站位于黄海沿岸，距离宁边约80公里。

The military is now armed with all manner of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic delivery systems and large solid-propellant ICBMs that can be driven on a mobile launcher into a remote area and launched with no warning. Many land in the Sea of Japan, where fishing and shipping lanes separate North Korea and Japan, and some have even flown over parts of Japan.

朝鲜军队现在装备了各种各样的弹道导弹、巡航导弹、高超音速投送系统和大型固体推进剂洲际弹道导弹，这些导弹可以用移动发射车机动到偏远地区，并在没有警告的情况下发射。许多导弹落在日本海，那里的捕鱼和航道将朝鲜和日本分开，有些导弹甚至飞越了日本部分地区。

The missile tests are carried out at a variety of sites across the country, including Sohae, which Middlebury analysis shows has been expanding in recent years.

导弹试验在朝鲜全国各地的不同地点进行，包括西海，明德大学分析显示，近年来西海的试验规模一直在扩大。

Mr. Kim’s pace of testing brought Washington and Pyongyang to the brink of war in 2017 during Mr. Trump’s first term, when he threatened to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea. The heightened tensions ultimately led to a brief détente between the countries, when, for the first time, an American president and a North Korean leader spoke directly.

2017年，在特朗普的第一个任期内，金正恩的试验速度使华盛顿和平壤走到了战争的边缘，当时特朗普威胁要对朝鲜释放“火与怒”。紧张局势的加剧最终导致两国之间出现短暂的缓和，美国总统和朝鲜领导人首次直接对话。

Three meetings between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim in 2018 and 2019 — as the pair exchanged love letters — that many hoped would slow down North Korea’s nuclear program ended in disappointment due in large part to hasty planning and the United States’ continued insistence on denuclearization. Mr. Kim held back from missile tests in 2018 and launched just a handful in 2020 and 2021, but the pace picked back up in 2022. In the past few years, under the Biden administration, Pyongyang test-fired more missiles than ever before while also revealing an array of new weapons.

2018年和2019年，特朗普和金正恩会晤了三次，两人互送秋波，许多人希望这些会晤能减缓朝鲜核计划的进展，但最终还是以失望收场，这在很大程度上是由于计划仓促和美国继续坚持朝鲜无核化。金正恩在2018年暂缓了导弹试射，在2020年和2021年仅发射了少量导弹，但在2022年又加快了步伐。过去几年，在拜登政府时期，平壤试射的导弹数量超过以往任何时候，同时还展示了一系列新武器。

So what do we know about North Korea’s nuclear weapons program? We know that its nuclear program’s infrastructure is vast. We know its weapons work. We know its missiles work. Why wouldn’t the United States negotiate to obtain better insight and open communication channels to help shape Mr. Kim’s choices in a potential crisis?

那么，我们对朝鲜的核武器计划了解多少呢？我们知道，朝鲜核计划的基础设施非常庞大。我们知道它的武器可以使用。我们知道它的导弹可以使用。美国为何不通过谈判获得更深入的了解，并开放沟通渠道，影响金正恩在潜在危机中的选择？

Pursuing diplomacy with North Korea won’t be universally popular. The regime is far from admirable. It has, among other things, advanced its military capabilities at the expense of its starving and impoverished population. But the looming nuclear threat is now so severe that joint U.S.-South Korea exercises in April involved nuclear weapon effects scenarios. It’s wise that they do, considering U.S. intelligence says North Korea could use a nuclear weapon early in a conflict to make up for its deficit in conventional capabilities.

寻求与朝鲜的外交途径不会受到普遍欢迎。这远不是一个值得敬仰的政权。别的且不说，它会以饥饿和贫困的人民为代价提高自己军事能力。但现在核威胁是如此迫在眉睫，以至于美韩在4月的联合演习中涉及了核武器影响的场景。考虑到美国情报部门称朝鲜可能会在冲突初期使用核武器来弥补其常规能力的不足，这样做是明智的。

It makes sense for the Trump administration to shift toward a strategy that aims to contain escalation rather than keep a white-knuckled grip on a failed policy. South Korea bristled when Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth referred to North Korea’s “status as a nuclear power” during the confirmation process on his nomination. It was virtually the same language Mr. Trump offhandedly used when talking to the media. (The White House later walked the comments back.)

特朗普政府应该转向一种旨在遏制事态升级的战略，而不是抓住一项失败的政策不放手。当国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在提名确认听证中提到朝鲜的“核大国地位”时，韩国感到愤怒。而这与特朗普在接受媒体采访时不假思索地使用的语言几乎相同。（白宫后来收回了这一言论。）

But common sense must prevail. No nation armed with an arsenal of this size has ever given it up — other than former Soviet nations, which didn’t control the weapons on their territories. Every president since Bill Clinton has missed an opportunity to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions because of denuclearization’s all-or-nothing approach. Mr. Trump should not allow the shackles of the past to hobble his administration when there are more sensible strategies available to shape a more promising future.

但常识必须占上风。没有任何国家放弃过如此规模的武器库——除了那些无法控制其境内武器的前苏联国家。自克林顿以来的每一位美国总统都因为“非黑即白”的无核化方针而错失了遏制朝鲜核野心的机会。特朗普不应该让过去束缚自己的政府，因为还有更明智的战略，可以塑造一个更有希望的未来。

Standing under a pagoda roof at the entrance to a sprawling Chinese-themed park in Moscow, Alyona Iyevskaya was doing homework for her university. Against a backdrop of ornate pavilions, arched bridges, a pond and a statue of Confucius, a friend filmed her on a camera phone gushing about the park — in Mandarin.

站在莫斯科一个巨大的中国主题公园入口处的宝塔屋顶下，阿廖娜·伊耶夫斯卡娅正在完成她的大学作业。以雕梁画栋的亭台、拱桥、池塘和孔子塑像为背景，一位朋友用手机拍下了她滔滔不绝谈论公园的情景——全程使用的是普通话。

Ms. Iyevskaya, 19, said she chose to study the language at Moscow City University, where she is a first-year student, because she believes China is on the rise and her prospects will be better if she speaks the language. Many Moscow universities now offer similar courses.

19岁的伊耶夫斯卡娅说，她选择在莫斯科城市大学学习这门语言，因为她相信中国正在崛起，如果会说这门语言，就会拥有更好的前景。她现在是这所大学的一年级学生。莫斯科的许多高校现在都开设了类似的课程。

“Many young people want to go to China to study,” Ms. Iyevskaya said. “There are so many prospects in China,” she added. “It is so cool, and it is developing so fast.”

“许多年轻人想去中国留学，”伊耶夫斯卡娅说。“中国有很多的机会，”她还说。“它太酷了，而且发展得很快。”

In a country that until recently worshiped everything Western, something surprising has happened: China has become desirable and trendy for Russians.

在一个直到前不久还崇拜一切西方事物的国家，令人惊讶的事情发生了：中国已经成为俄罗斯人向往的时尚潮流。

Chinese cars have become a common sight on Moscow streets. Members of the Russian elite are hiring Chinese nannies to encourage their children to learn Mandarin early. The capital’s museums and performance centers are clamoring to put on Chinese exhibitions and shows.

中国汽车已成为莫斯科街头的一道常见风景。俄罗斯精英阶层开始雇佣中国保姆，以便让孩子从小学习普通话。首都的博物馆和表演中心争相举办中国的展览和演出。

莫斯科一家购物中心展示的中国汽车。中国品牌的汽车已成为莫斯科街头的一道常见风景。

“The last three years let the Russians see the East in a totally new light, not as an exotic alternative to Europe but as a mainstream direction for business, tourism and studies,” Kirill V. Babaev, the head of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an email.

俄罗斯科学院中国与当代亚洲研究所所长基里尔·巴巴耶夫在一封电子邮件中说，“过去三年让俄罗斯人以全新的眼光看待东方，它不再是欧洲的异国情调替代品，而是商业、旅游和研究的主流方向。”

“The Russian people are following this trend with so much interest, as if they had just discovered another planet,” he added.

他还说：“俄罗斯人民以极大的兴趣追逐这一趋势，好像他们刚刚发现了另一个星球。”

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has become the Kremlin’s best friend in public, even as some Russian officials retain a deep suspicion of Beijing’s intentions. It has provided diplomatic support and bought Russian oil and gas. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has met with President Vladimir V. Putin in the Kremlin, both smiling warmly for the cameras. China has also helped replace Western consumer goods that Russians cannot buy because of sanctions.

自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，中国已成为克里姆林宫在公开场合最好的朋友，尽管一些俄罗斯官员仍对北京的意图深表怀疑。中国提供了外交支持，并购买俄罗斯的石油和天然气。中国领导人习近平在克里姆林宫与俄罗斯总统普京会晤，两人都对着镜头热情地微笑。此外，中国还帮助俄罗斯填补了因西方制裁而无法购买的消费品空缺。

All that has fed into a growing mania for Chinese goods and culture across Russia.

所有这些都助长了俄罗斯各地掀起日益高涨的中国商品及文化追捧热潮。

In Moscow, the few public schools that offer Chinese are oversubscribed, and Mandarin is a staple not only at linguistic universities, but also at technical schools. Employment vacancies requiring Chinese have soared in recent years, according to a popular job website.

在莫斯科，为数不多开设中文课程的公立学校都出现了超额报名的现象，普通话不仅是语言大学的常设课程，也进入了工科院校的课堂。据一家知名招聘网站称，近年来要求掌握中文的职位空缺大幅增加。

莫斯科的一家旅游纪念品商店，摆放着俄罗斯总统普京（左）和中国最高领导人习近平的像。

Theater directors from China stage plays based on contemporary Chinese novels in Russian theaters that once welcomed leading Western artists. In April, a major museum in Moscow hosted an exhibition of porcelain, ceramics and other artifacts from the National Museum of China in Beijing. Books about Chinese culture are featured prominently in bookstores.

来自中国的戏剧导演在曾经接待的多是西方顶尖艺术家的俄罗斯剧院上演根据中国当代小说改编的剧目。今年4月，莫斯科一家大型博物馆举办了来自北京中国国家博物馆的瓷器、陶瓷和其他文物展览。有关中国文化的书籍在书店里摆在显眼位置。

In late January, Moscow City Hall decorated the city center to celebrate Lunar New Year, covering pedestrian streets with red lanterns and installing a giant panda hugging a Christmas tree next to Red Square.

1月下旬，莫斯科市政厅装饰了市中心以庆祝春节，在步行街上挂满了红灯笼，并在红场旁边安装了一只拥抱圣诞树的大熊猫。

Moscow’s subway laid on a red Chinese-themed train and translated its map into Chinese. The city’s billboards and state television featured Mr. Xi’s “favorite catchphrases,” (“delicious soup is made by combining different ingredients” is one), and Chinese restaurants have been sprouting in cities across Russia.

莫斯科地铁设立了一列红色的中国主题列车，并将地铁路线图翻译成了中文。该市的广告牌和国家电视台上出现了习近平“最喜欢的名言”（“和羹之美，在于合异”就是其中之一），中餐馆在俄罗斯各城市如雨后春笋般涌现。

莫斯科的一块广告牌上显示着习近平“最喜欢的名言”。

Valentin Gogol, the founder of a company that supplies nannies for members of the Russian elite, said he had been scrambling to meet ever-growing demand for Chinese speakers. Salaries now run to $5,000 per month, he said, generally high by Russian standards, and still, “The process of recruiting has been quite hard.”

瓦伦丁·果戈利是一家为俄罗斯精英阶层提供保姆服务的公司创始人，他说他一直在努力满足对中文保姆日益增长的需求。他说，对于这样的人，现在的工资达到了每月5000美元，以俄罗斯的标准来看，这已经很高了，但“招聘的过程仍然相当艰难”。

English-speaking nannies are still the most popular, he said, but Chinese-speaking ones have replaced French speakers in second place.

他说，说英语的保姆仍然是最受欢迎的，但说汉语的保姆已经取代了说法语的保姆，排在第二位。

“People now see it as an additional second language to complement English,” said Mr. Gogol, whose company is still called English Nanny.

“人们现在把中文看作补充英语的第二语言，”果戈利说。他的公司仍然叫做“英语保姆”。

Chinese cars are one increasingly visible sign of the Russian embrace of China. Cars made in China have flooded the Russian market, with more than 900,000 sold last year alone, according to Autostat, an auto market consultancy. That compared with about 115,000 in 2021.

中国汽车成为了俄罗斯青睐中国的一个日益显著的标识。汽车市场咨询公司Autostat的数据显示，中国制造的汽车已大量涌入俄罗斯市场，仅去年一年就售出逾90万辆。相比之下，2021年约为11.5万辆。

Sergei Stillavin, a Russian radio host and founder of a car blog on YouTube, used to travel around Europe to review European cars. Now almost all cars featured in his blog are Chinese.

俄罗斯电台主持人谢尔盖·斯蒂拉文是YouTube上一个汽车博客的创始人，过去，他经常在欧洲各地旅行，评论欧洲汽车。现在，他博客里几乎出现的都是中国品牌。

“BMW is still more prestigious,” he said, speaking about deeply entrenched preferences in Russia. “But I know people who switched from Porsche to Li Xiang,” a Chinese car brand now ubiquitous on Moscow’s streets.

“宝马仍然更有声望，”他在谈到俄罗斯根深蒂固的偏好时说。“但我知道有人从保时捷转向了理想。”这个中国汽车品牌如今在莫斯科街头随处可见。

在莫斯科的中国主题公园拍摄婚纱照。

While there is undoubtedly much more enthusiasm for Chinese goods, there is still a lingering longing for Western products that have become increasingly difficult to obtain in recent years.

人们对中国货无疑热情高涨，但对西方产品的渴望仍挥之不去，近年来它们越来越难买到。

Taxi drivers in Chinese cars in Moscow say they would still rather buy a German car if it were the same price. And videos have circulated on social media poking fun at Chinese cars. In one, a Russian man presents a Chinese car as a gift to his girlfriend. As soon as she sees the stylish car, her face falls.

在莫斯科，开中国车的出租车司机表示，如果价格相同，他们仍宁愿买一辆德国车。社交媒体上流传着取笑中国车的视频。在一段视频中，一名俄罗斯男子将一辆中国车作为礼物送给女友。她一看到那辆时尚的汽车，脸就沉了下来。

“I hope you are joking,” she says. “I won’t drive a Chinese one, this is not a Porsche, or a Mercedes.”

“我希望你是在开玩笑，”她说。“我不会开中国车的，这不是保时捷，也不是奔驰。”

Western branding also remains common across the Russian capital. A new elite building complex in Moscow bears aspirational London-themed names like Knightsbridge Private Park complex and Belgravia, rather than ones evoking Shanghai or Beijing. And even a Chinese business cluster near Moscow is called GreenWood.

莫斯科街头的西方品牌依然随处可见。在莫斯科，新的精英建筑群使用的是令人向往的伦敦主题的名字，比如骑士桥私人公园综合楼和贝尔格莱维亚，而不是让人想起上海或北京的名字。甚至连莫斯科附近的一个中国商业楼群也被称为“格林伍德”。

“Red Silk,” a joint Russian-Chinese movie with Chinese and Russian spies battling Japanese enemies, Chinese nationalists and their British backers on a trans-Siberian train in 1927, was a box-office disaster despite state-sponsored advertising. And only one Chinese fashion brand, Ellassay, has replaced the Western luxury boutiques that used to dominate the storefront of GUM, Red Square’s department store.

中俄合拍的电影《红丝绸》(Red Silk)讲述了中俄特工在一列横贯西伯利亚的火车上与日本敌人、中国民族主义者及其英国支持者斗智斗勇的故事。在红场的百货商场GUM，只有一个中国时尚品牌歌力思取代了曾经占据黄金铺位的西方奢侈品精品店。

莫斯科GUM百货公司的中国时装品牌歌力思专卖店。

Aleksandr Grek, a Russian magazine editor and a China enthusiast with five children, said there were generational differences in how China was viewed by the young.

俄罗斯杂志编辑亚历山大·格列克是一位有五个孩子的中国迷。他说，年轻人对中国的看法存在代际差异。

His children over 14 are still more Western-oriented, but the younger ones know little about Western culture and are infatuated with Asia, he said.

他说，他14岁以上的孩子仍然更倾向于西方文化，但更年轻的孩子对西方文化知之甚少，他们迷恋亚洲。

“They don’t see anything that is made in the United States,” said Mr. Grek, 59, sipping green tea in a Moscow cafe and talking of his younger children. “Everything that surrounds them is made in China.”

“他们看不到任何美国制造的东西，”59岁的格列克在莫斯科的一家咖啡馆里喝着绿茶，谈论着他年幼的孩子们。“他们周围的一切都是中国制造。”

Mr. Grek’s children all studied Chinese. His 14-year-old daughter speaks it fluently and will spend the next summer in China living with a local family “just like children used to go to England” to improve their English. For Mr. Grek and his family, the reasoning is simple.

格列克的孩子们都学中文。他14岁的女儿能说一口流利的中文，明年夏天她将去中国和一个当地家庭一起生活，“就像孩子们以前（为提高英语水平）去英国一样”。对格列克和他的家人来说，理由很简单。

“China is our only friend now,” he said, listing technological fields where he sees China as the world’s leader, like solar power and artificial intelligence. “And it is becoming top country in the world.”

“中国现在是我们唯一的朋友，”他说，并列出了他认为中国处于世界领先地位的科技领域，比如太阳能和人工智能。“它正在成为世界顶级强国。”

在红场自拍。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，中国已成为克里姆林宫在公开场合的好朋友。

Other Russians are more skeptical, saying that the increased interest in China was likely a temporary marriage of convenience.

也有的俄罗斯人则持怀疑态度，他们说，对中国日益增长的兴趣可能是一场暂时的“利益联姻”。

Yulia Kuznetsova, a Chinese language and culture specialist, said she remembered when learning Mandarin was considered exotic and Sinologists were a fringe group. She said she thought that the China craze would end once relations with the West improved.

中国语言和文化专家尤利娅·库兹涅佐娃说，她记得当年学习普通话曾被认为是异国情调，汉学家是一个边缘群体。她说，她认为一旦与西方的关系改善，中国热就会消退。

“Deep down nothing has changed,” she said. For Russians, Ms. Kuznetsova said, China “is a foreign culture.”

“在内心深处，什么都没有改变，”她说。库兹涅佐娃说，对俄罗斯人来说，中国“是一种异质文化”。

“Even the Arab world is much closer to us,” she said, citing Dubai as one place where Russians were flocking. “We can only be close with Europe because we are united by a culture that is similar or even the same.”

“就连阿拉伯世界也离我们近得多，”她指出，迪拜也是俄罗斯人趋之若鹜的地方之一。“我们真正亲近的只能是欧洲，因为毕竟我们有着相似甚至几乎相同的文化。”

In the debate over trade, stories about what’s left of the domestic textile industry tend to involve mills threatened by competition from China. But a company in Colorado called Cocona Labs has prospered by sending its products across the Pacific.

在有关贸易的争论中，那些关于美国纺织业奄奄一息的故事往往会提到受到中国竞争威胁的纺织厂。然而，一家名为Cocona Labs的科罗拉多公司却通过将产品出口到太平洋彼岸，把生意做得红红火火。

Cocona manufactures compounds used to make fabrics that are stitched into bedding, towels and clothing, especially for outdoor gear. The elements move moisture away from skin, making material warmer and faster drying. Cocona sends roughly two-thirds of the compounds it produces to China, where factories spin yarn, weave fabric and stitch linens and apparel. Many of the finished goods wind up back in the United States.

Cocona生产用于制造面料的化合物，这些面料被制成床上用品、毛巾和衣物，尤其是户外装备。这些功能性成分能将水分从皮肤上带走，使材料更保暖、速干。Cocona将其生产的大约三分之二的化合物送往中国，那里的工厂负责纺纱、织布以及缝制亚麻制品和服装。许多成品最终又回到美国。

But the global trade war started by the Trump administration has shaken the economics of this business. Faced with uncertainty over tariffs, and especially retaliatory levies imposed by China, Cocona might start making changes. Among the possible actions: moving part of the production of its core offering, its so-called master batch made up of compounds, from the United States to factories in China.

但特朗普政府发起的全球贸易战动摇了该公司的经济基础。面对关税带来的不确定性，尤其是中国实施的报复性征税，Cocona可能会开始做出改变。可能的举措包括：将其核心产品（由化合物组成的所谓母料）的部分生产从美国转移到中国的工厂。

“We are actively in the process of doing that,” the company’s chief executive, Jeff Bowman, said from his home in Bend, Ore.

该公司首席执行官杰夫·鲍曼在俄勒冈州本德的家中表示：“我们正在积极实施这一计划。”

President Trump has sold his trade war as the way to force international businesses to abandon China and bring factory work to the United States. Yet the experience of this small business, one with 20 employees around the world, attests to how tariffs can have the opposite effect, compelling the company to consider shifting its work to the other side of the Pacific.

特朗普将他的贸易战宣传为迫使跨国企业放弃中国、将工厂迁回美国的一种手段。然而，这家在全球拥有20名员工的小企业的经历证明，关税可能产生相反的效果，迫使该公司考虑将业务转移到太平洋彼岸。

“Is that crazy, or what?” Mr. Bowman said.

“太疯狂了，对不对？”鲍曼说。

He is especially frustrated that the disruption of his business is playing out in the service of a goal that he dismisses as fanciful.

尤其让他感到不满的是，他的生意受到干扰是为了一个被他斥为异想天开的目标。

“There’s no way in hell that those garment factories and bedding factories are coming back to the United States in any significant quantity,” he said. “Unless American consumers are willing to pay a lot more for their goods.”

“那些服装厂和床上用品厂绝对不可能大量回到美国，”他说。“除非美国消费者愿意花更多钱购买这些商品。”

Cocona利用从美国西南部开采的矿物，将它们制成颗粒。然后，位于上中西部州和东南部州的工厂将这些颗粒制成母料，用于制造床上用品、毛巾和服装的面料。Cocona将其生产的约三分之二的化合物运往中国，但鉴于关税问题的不确定性，公司首席执行官杰夫·鲍曼一直在研究如何将其母粒的某些生产阶段转移到中国或印度。

At 72, Mr. Bowman is a veteran of two worlds directly relevant to his current perch: mountaineering and the pursuit of ways to keep climbers more comfortable. An outdoor enthusiast, he worked for Bill Gore, the fabric pioneer who developed Gore-Tex, the lightweight, breathable and waterproof material.

现年72岁的鲍曼在两个与他目前的工作直接相关的领域有着丰富的经验：登山运动以及寻求让登山者更舒适的方法。作为一名户外运动爱好者，他曾为面料先驱比尔·戈尔工作。戈尔开发了轻便、透气、防水的材料Gore-Tex。

He thought he was retired, living and rock climbing in Spain, when he was recruited to oversee Cocona in 2013. The company had been in business since the early 1990s.

2013年被Cocona请来掌舵之前，他以为自己住在西班牙，享受攀岩的退休状态会一直继续下去。这家公司成立于20世纪90年代初。

Cocona’s operations are shrouded in trade secrets, making Mr. Bowman meager with details. In general terms, the process takes minerals mined in the American Southwest and sends them to the Mid-Atlantic, where they are turned into particles. Factories in the Upper Midwest and Southeast then turn those particles into master batch. Cocona exports those wares to companies that make yarn in China, Taiwan, India, Portugal, Turkey, Spain and El Salvador.

Cocona的业务多为商业机密，鲍曼对其中的细节讳莫如深。总的来说流程是这样的：从美国西南部开采矿物，运到美国的中大西洋地区，在那里将它们制成颗粒。然后，位于上中西部州和东南部州的工厂将这些颗粒制成母料。Cocona将这些产品出口给中国、台湾、印度、葡萄牙、土耳其、西班牙和萨尔瓦多生产纱线的企业。

The trade war delivered by Mr. Trump on his return to office in January did not catch the company by surprise. Six years ago, as animosity between the United States and China intensified, Cocona began developing new markets in India. But its partnerships in China, some forged after decades of collaboration, could not be replaced.

特朗普今年1月重返白宫后发起的贸易战并没有让该公司感到意外。六年前，美中之间的敌意加剧，Cocona开始在印度开发新市场。但它在中国的合作伙伴有些保持了几十年的关系，不可能被取代。

“The infrastructure in China for textiles, there’s nothing really that compares to it anywhere else in the world,” Mr. Bowman said.

鲍曼说：“中国的纺织业基础设施在世界上真的没有其他地方能与之匹敌。”

In April, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent. Beijing responded by elevating tariffs on American imports to 125 percent. Mr. Bowman had a problem. Fortunately, he discovered an immediate solution. His warehouse in Shanghai held enough master batch to satisfy orders without bringing in additional shipments.

4月，特朗普将中国进口商品的关税提高到145%。北京方面则将美国进口商品的关税提高到125%。鲍曼遇到了麻烦。幸运的是，他立即找到了解决方案。他在上海的仓库里存放的母料足以满足订单需求，无需额外发货。

In the months since, amid talk of trade negotiations, the Trump administration has lowered its tariffs on Chinese imports to 30 percent, while Beijing has reduced its retaliatory taxes to 10 percent. Still, Mr. Bowman remains concerned that fresh hostility could erupt without warning.

此后的几个月里，随着各方开始谈及举行贸易谈判，特朗普政府将对中国进口商品的关税降至30%，而北京则将其报复性关税降至10%。尽管如此，鲍曼仍然担心新的敌对行动可能随时爆发。

His customers are holding off on purchases, awaiting the clarity of future trade deals.

他的客户正在推迟采购，等待未来贸易协定的明确。

“Nobody’s ordering goods all through the supply chain,” he said, having just returned from a three-week reconnaissance trip to Asia. This was the situation everywhere, he added.

“整个供应链上都没有人下单，”他说。他刚结束为期三周的亚洲考察之旅。他还表示，各地都是这种情况。

Faced with this threat, Mr. Bowman is slowing a series of projects aimed at expanding into new product lines. He is holding back on laboratory work and product testing.

面对这一威胁，鲍曼放缓了一系列旨在拓展新产品线的项目。他暂停了实验室的工作和产品测试。

“We’re all waiting to see what’s going to happen,” he said. But he could not wait to configure alternative plans. “Hope is not a strategy,” he added.

“我们都在观望会发生什么，”他说。但他不能坐等结果，只能提前制定备选方案。“不能把愿望当成策略，”他补充道。

With that in mind, Mr. Bowman has been looking into how to shift some of the manufacturing stages of his master batch to Asia — to either China or India. That way, he can sell the product to his Chinese customers without tariffs.

考虑到这一点，鲍曼一直在研究如何将其母料的某些生产阶段转移到亚洲——无论是中国还是印度。这样，他就可以绕开关税，将产品销售给他的中国客户。

“We could pull the trigger on that in 30 days,” he said.

“我们可以在30天内启动这个计划，”他说。

He would be taking business from his American suppliers and moving it to Asia — all because of a policy aimed at bringing jobs home.

他将把业务从美国的供应商转移到亚洲——而这一切，都是因为一项旨在将就业带回美国的政策。

There was the software engineering major who crouched behind umbrellas to dodge rubber bullets. The social worker who marched with other pro-democracy protesters. And the student who handed out leaflets and made speeches.

一个是蹲在雨伞后躲避橡皮子弹的软件工程专业学生​，一个是与其他民主抗议者一起游行的社工，还有一个是向行人分发传单、发表演讲的学生。

All three had joined the Hong Kong protests that erupted in 2019, hoping for more democracy. Instead, the movement was crushed, and they, like many others, were arrested, sentenced and sent to prison.

他们三人都是香港2019年爆发的抗议活动的参加者，都曾对更多的民主抱有希望。但这场运动最终遭到镇压，他们和许多人一样，被逮捕、判刑，送进了监狱。

More than 10,000 people were arrested during the monthslong uprising that began as peaceful mass rallies but grew sometimes violent as the police responded with force. Almost a quarter of those were convicted of crimes that include rioting and national security offenses.

那些以和平的大规模集会开始的抗议活动持续了几个月，但随着警方用武力回应，抗议活动有时也变得暴力。抗议活动期间有近1万人被逮捕，其中近四分之一的人被判有罪，罪行包括暴乱和危害国家安全。

香港2019年夏天的民主抗议活动吸引了很多民众参加。

China’s national security crackdown on Hong Kong, which began five years ago, has quelled protests and effectively outlawed public dissent. Many of the protesters have moved overseas or gone back to their lives.

中国从五年前开始以维护国家安全的名义对香港进行镇压，平息了那些抗议活动，实际上用法律禁止了公开发表异见。许多参加过抗议活动的人已移居海外，或回到了他们以前的生活。

But for those convicted of crimes, moving on has been hard. Some have found themselves shut out from their former careers; others feel stranded as their peers have moved on.

但重返正常生活对那些留有案底的人来说并不容易。他们中有些人发现自己被以前的职业拒之门外，还有些人因为同龄人已迈入新生活，而感到自己被困在了原地。

Here are the stories of three of them:

下面是他们中的三个人的故事：

A Career Derailed

职业受阻

Fung, the social worker, who asked to be identified only by part of her name, had been arrested at a largely peaceful street protest. A conviction and prison sentence for rioting brought her five-year career to a halt.

社工阿芳（她要求本文只用她的部分名字）是在一次基本和平的街头抗议活动中被捕的。她因暴乱罪而获刑入狱，导致她五年的职业生涯就此中断。

Prison brought other hardships too, as when her father’s cancer took a turn for the worse. She was told she could only see him on his deathbed or attend his funeral. The hospital visit she chose lasted only ten minutes. When her father reached for her handcuffed hands, the officers forbade contact and ushered her away.

由于父亲癌症恶化，身陷囹圄也让她遭受了其他苦难。监狱只允许她或在父亲临终前见一面，或去参加他的葬礼。她选择了去医院探视父亲，但只获准停留十分钟。父亲想伸手摸摸她戴着手铐的手时，警察不允许接触，并将她带走。

She applied to restore her license as a social worker, both while in prison and after her release, but was rejected despite having referrals from former professors and colleagues.

她曾在狱中和获释后申请复发社工执照，尽管有以前的教授和同事的推荐，但均被拒绝。

“I feel I have shouldered my responsibility,” she said. “Now I want to move on and become a part of society again.”

“我觉得我已经尽了我的责任，”她说。“我现在想从头开始，重新成为社会的一员。”

She said she would keep trying, and has been working as a concierge for a luxury hotel in the meantime. While many of her friends have emigrated, Fung is determined to stay put. She has no regrets.

她目前在一家豪华酒店当礼宾员，但表示会继续申请社工执照。虽然很多朋友都移民了，但阿芳决心留下来。她不后悔。

“I have very deep feelings for Hong Kong,” she said. “I have hope that it will get better.”

“我对香港有很深的感情，”她说。“我对香港将变好抱有希望。”

Missed Opportunities

失去的机会

Chan Chi Sum was 20 when he was arrested and sentenced to prison for conspiracy to incite subversion. He had been a leader in a student group that had drawn the attention of the authorities for running a street booth where they handed out fliers and warned that a government Covid contact-tracing app could be used for surveillance.

陈志森（音）被捕入狱时年仅20岁，罪名是串谋煽动颠覆罪。他曾是一个学生团体的负责人，该团体引起当局的注意是因为他们在街头摆摊散发传单，警告人们，政府用来追踪新冠病毒接触者的手机应用程序可能被用于监控。

Since his release, he has been trying to make up for the two years he lost behind bars.

出狱后，他一直在试图弥补狱中失去的两年时间。

But some old friends have kept their distance. One who had plans to join the civil service sent him a text message but did not make plans to meet. Eventually, they stopped talking.

一些过去的朋友与他刻意保持距离。一名曾有加入公务员队伍计划的朋友给他发过短信，但没有与他见面的打算。最终，他们停止了联系。

Many of his peers who had fought for democracy alongside him had moved on. He kept quiet at high school reunions when his former classmates discussed plans to buy property and have children.

许多曾与他一起争取民主的同龄人都已开始关心别的事情。在高中同学聚会时，昔日的同窗讨论买房子、生孩子的计划时，他只能沉默不语。

陈志森一直试图弥补在狱中失去的两年，但因为朋友们开始关心别的事情，他觉得自己被甩在了后面。

“They all completed their degrees and became the people they wanted to be. But I didn’t get to become who I wanted to be,” Mr. Chan said.

“他们都完成了学业，成了他们想成为的人。但我没能成为自己想成为的人，”陈先生说。

In order to save up for further study, he worked as many odd jobs as he could find, including as a mover, a busboy and a video editor. He also earned a license to become a construction worker in case universities rejected him because of his record.

为了攒钱继续深造，他打过各种各样的零工，当过搬运工、餐馆服务员，还当过视频编辑师。他还拿了建筑工人执照，以备大学因案底而拒绝录取他时，能有一条出路。

He is now pursuing a degree in media and culture and hopes to make videos and documentaries that would bear witness to the changing city. “I can show others the Hong Kong I see through my eyes,” he said.

他现在正在攻读媒体与文化方向的学位，希望用制作视频和纪录片的方式来见证这座城市的变迁。“我可以向别人展示我眼中的香港，”他说。

Enforced Silence

不得不沉默

Tsui, the software engineering major, left prison to find a city far different than the one he remembered.

软件工程专业毕业的崔先生出狱后，发现香港已变得与他记忆中的样子大不相同。

Tsui, who asked to be identified only by his last name, served almost two and a half years for rioting. Upon his release, he had initially wanted to speak out about the poor prison conditions, but his friends warned him against it.

崔先生要求本文只给出他的姓。他因暴乱罪入狱近两年半。获释后，他最初曾想公开揭露监狱中的恶劣条件，但朋友们警告他不要那么做。

Tsui feels frustrated that many who joined him in protesting seem to have set aside their political ideals and were even traveling regularly to mainland China for work or fun.

让他感到沮丧的是，许多曾和他一起抗议的人似乎已搁置了政治理想，甚至频繁往返内地工作旅游。

让崔先生感到沮丧的是，许多曾和他一起抗议的人似乎搁置了当初的政治理想。但在不再容忍异见的香港，他也学会了开始自我审查。

He landed a job as an entry-level system administrator in a large private company. He has tried to keep his time in prison a secret from new acquaintances.

他在一家私营大公司找到了一份当系统管理员的初级工作。他还竭力向新同事隐瞒服刑经历。

But office talk about movies and songs popular when he was in prison made him feel left out, and jokes comparing the work grind to prison did not seem funny. He also learned to dodge questions like why he avoided visiting mainland China or downloading Chinese apps like WeChat.

但每当办公室里有人讨论那些在他入狱期间流行起来的电影和歌曲时，他会感到格格不入。同事将苦差事与监狱生活作比较的玩笑也让他笑不起来。他还学会了避开某些话题，比如他为什么不去内地，或为什么不用微信等中国应用程序。

Now, he censors himself during conversations, and has started warning other friends to be careful about making comments critical of the government on social media.

现在，他在与他人聊天时会自我审查，并开始警告其他朋友在社交媒体上发表批评政府的言论要谨慎。

“We have all learned how to dance within the red lines,” he said.

“我们都已学会了如何在红线内跳舞，”他说。

President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan has been on a speaking tour that he says is aimed at uniting the island against threats from China. But critics say the campaign risks backfiring, deepening political divisions at home while provoking an angry response from Beijing.

台湾总统赖清德正在全台举行巡回演讲，他称此举旨在团结岛内民众抵御来自中国的威胁。但批评人士称，这个做法可能适得其反，加剧岛内的政治分歧，同时引发北京的愤怒反应。

Mr. Lai is battling on two fronts: China, which claims Taiwan as its territory and threatens to take it by force, and Taiwan’s opposition parties, which control the legislature and have tried to curb his administration’s policies and powers.

赖清德正在两条战线上作战：一个是宣称对台湾拥有主权，并威胁要用武力将其收回的中国；另一个是控制着台湾立法机构的反对党，它试图对赖清德政府的政策和权力进行限制。

The president’s response has been what he calls “Ten Speeches on National Unity,” but the campaign and the heated responses that it has generated are exposing the very divisions that Mr. Lai says he wants to heal. The contention reflects rifts over Taiwan’s identity, its fraught relationship with China, and how to keep the island secure.

赖清德的应对之道是发表其所谓的“团结国家十讲”，但演讲及其引发的激烈反应正在让赖清德声称他想弥合的分歧暴露无遗。这场争论反映了人们在台湾的身份认同、与中国的紧张关系，以及如何维护台湾安全等问题上的分歧。

In the three speeches that Mr. Lai has made so far, he has argued that Taiwan’s history, culture and democratic politics are incompatible with Communist-ruled China.

赖清德在目前已发表的三个演讲中提出，台湾的历史、文化和民主政治与共产党统治的中国不相配。

China threatens to “blur the national identity of our people,” Mr. Lai said in his latest speech on Sunday. “China exploits Taiwan’s good will and opportunities for exchanges to carry out united front work and infiltration,” he said, using terms that refer to China’s efforts to advance Beijing’s agenda in the world.

中国“混淆国人对国家认同之威胁”，赖清德在周日发表的最近一个讲话中说。“中国利用台湾的善意、交流的机会，进行统战渗透，”他说，他指的是中国在世界上推动北京议程的努力。

In his first speech, Mr. Lai emphasized Taiwan’s history as a Pacific Ocean island, not as a sometime outpost of imperial China. The People’s Republic of China that Mao Zedong founded in 1949 had never occupied Taiwan, he said. With its own government, military and foreign policy, he added, “of course, Taiwan is a country.”

在首次演讲中，赖清德强调了台湾作为一个太平洋岛屿的历史，而非中华帝国曾经的边远前哨。他说，毛泽东1949年成立的中华人民共和国从未占领过台湾。他还说，台湾有自己的政府、军队，以及自己的外交政策，“台湾当然是一个国家。”

Mr. Lai’s declarations have set off an escalating war of words with Beijing. Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the Chinese government office that deals with Taiwan, said on Monday that Mr. Lai had “completely abandoned his heritage and was betraying the nation.” The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party newspaper, said that Mr. Lai was treating the island’s 23 million people as “cannon fodder for Taiwan independence.”

赖清德的这个说法引发了中国政府不断升级的口水战。中国的国台办发言人朱凤莲周一表示，赖清德“完全是数典忘祖、背弃民族”。中共小报《环球时报》称赖清德拉台湾的“2300万人做他的‘台独炮灰’”。

And while Mr. Lai has been making his speeches, China has been hosting Taiwan’s former president, Ma Ying-jeou of the main opposition Nationalist Party, who supports an eventual peaceful merger between China and Taiwan. Last week, Chinese officials took Mr. Ma to Dunhuang, an ancient Buddhist site in northwest China, a gesture designed to make the point that Taiwan is a part of China’s heritage.

在赖清德发表这些讲话的时候，中国一直在接待台湾前总统、台湾主要的反对党国民党前主席马英九，马英九支持两岸最终实现和平统一。上周，中国官员把马英九带到敦煌参观这个位于中国西北部的佛教古迹，以此表明台湾是中国传统的一部分。

China has furiously denounced Mr. Lai, who has been in power since May last year, accusing him of pursuing outright independence for Taiwan — a red line for Chinese leaders. The stakes are high: Beijing, which already conducts regular air and naval operations near Taiwan, may use Mr. Lai’s speeches to justify increasing its military pressure on Taiwan.

自从赖清德去年5月就任台湾总统以来，中国已多次对他予以强烈谴责，指责他寻求台湾的彻底独立，这是中国领导人的红线。他的这些讲话有巨大风险：中国政府已定期在台湾周边的水域和空中展开军事活动，它也许会把赖清德的讲话作为加大中国对台湾施加军事压力的借口。

The president’s critics in Taiwan are also harsh, accusing him of stoking divisions and jeopardizing the fragile status quo with China.

赖清德在台湾的批评者也措辞严厉，指责他加深分歧，损害脆弱的台海现状。

“He’s not only failing to unite Taiwan’s various ethnic groupings; on the contrary, I think he’s actually increasing and heightening divisiveness and polarization,” Weng Hsiao-ling, a law professor who is also an opposition lawmaker, said in an interview.

“他不仅没有把台湾的不同族群团结起来，我认为他实际上反而加大、加剧了分歧和意见的两极分化，”在立法院代表反对党的法学教授翁晓玲在接受采访时说。

The bitter rhetoric reflects the deadlock between Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party and the Nationalist Party, which favors building ties with Beijing. A smaller party, the Taiwan People’s Party, is also hostile to Mr. Lai, and together the two opposition parties control the majority in the 113-member legislature. They have repeatedly blocked Mr. Lai’s proposals, including the budget.

这些激烈的言辞反映了赖清德领导的民进党与倾向于与中国建立关系的国民党之间的僵局。更小的反对党——台湾民众党也对赖清德抱有敌意。这两个反对党在113个席位的立法院控制着多数席位。他们已多次阻止了赖清德的提案获得通过，包括预算案在内。

In response, Mr. Lai’s party has endorsed a recall campaign against Nationalist members in Taiwan’s legislature.

作为回应，赖清德的政党支持一场针对立法院中的国民党立法委员进行罢免投票的运动。

Political experts say Mr. Lai is hoping to energize his supporters to win back control of the legislature after recall votes scheduled for late July. Up to two dozen Nationalist Party lawmakers may lose their seats if the recall votes gather enough support, and special elections for fresh candidates would follow.

罢免投票将于7月底举行，政治专家们说，赖清德希望激励他的支持者们夺回立法院的控制权。如果罢免投票得到足够多支持的话，至少有20名国民党立法委员可能会失去席位，然后需要通过补选来选出新的立法委员。

“He is trying to fire his base of support as much as possible in order to ensure the recalls are successful,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University in Taipei. He added that for now “Lai’s only weapon is his microphone. He is unable to pass policy, and the policy changes he can make are all very limited. Truly, the only meaningful agency he has as president is when he is making a speech.”

“他正试图尽可能地激励他的基本盘，以确保罢免投票成功，”台北的国立台湾大学政治学助理教授南乐(Lev Nachman)说。他还说，目前“赖清德唯一的武器就是他的麦克风。他无法让政策获得通过，他能进行的政策改变非常有限。作为总统，他能起真正作用的唯一方式就是发表讲话”。

The divisions reflect longstanding disagreements about Taiwan’s history and identity.

这些分歧反映了民进党与国民党在台湾历史和身份认同问题上的长期分歧。

Mr. Lai and his supporters in the “green” camp emphasize that Taiwan is separate from China, historically and politically. Mr. Lai has also accused Taiwan’s opposition of eroding Taiwan’s security and democracy. The Nationalists and their supporters in the “blue” camp argue that stronger links with China can be help maintain peace.

赖清德及其“绿营”支持者们强调，台湾与中国在历史上和政治上一直处于分离状态。赖清德还指责台湾的反对党侵蚀台湾的安全和民主。国民党及其“蓝营”支持者们则认为，加强与中国的关系有助于维护和平。

The rival views of Taiwan’s status are difficult to reconcile, said Wang Horng-luen, a scholar at Academia Sinica, a Taiwanese research institute.

台湾研究机构中央研究院的学者汪宏伦说，很难调和有关台湾地位问题的对立观点。

“Because of Taiwan’s special historical context and international setting, the narratives about Taiwan’s sovereignty are very hard to describe clearly,” he said. “No matter whether it’s the Taiwan-centered one, or the China-centered one, they both exclude the other group.”

“由于台湾的特殊历史背景和所处的国际环境，有关台湾主权的叙事很难清晰地表述出来，”他说。“无论是以台湾为中心的叙事，还是以中国为中心的叙事，它们都不把对方包括进来。”

The graduate student in southern China wrote the romance novel in her spare time, self-publishing it online. In 75 chapters, it followed two male protagonists through a love affair that included, at times, steamy sexual encounters. It earned her less than $400, from readers who paid to access it.

一名中国南方的研究生用业余时间创作了一部言情小说，并在网上发布。小说共有75章，讲述了两位男主角之间的一段恋情，其中包括一些情欲描写。读者需付费阅读，这部小说最终为她带来了不到3000元的收入。

Now, it could bring her a criminal conviction.

如今，这部小说可能会让她面临刑事定罪。

Across China, the authorities have been interrogating dozens of writers — many of them young women — who published gay erotic novels online, in what appears to be the largest police roundup of its kind to date.

在中国各地，政府正在审讯数十名曾在网上发布男同性恋题材情色小说的作者，其中许多是年轻女性。这似乎是迄今为止最大规模的此类警方抓捕行动。

At least 12 such authors were tried on obscenity charges in Anhui Province late last year, according to court records, and more investigations, including that of the student, were opened in Gansu Province this spring. Some of the writers have been fined heavily or sentenced to years in prison for producing and distributing obscene content.

根据法院记录，去年底，至少有12名此类作者在安徽省因淫秽内容指控被审判。今年春天，包括那名学生在内的更多案件在甘肃省被立案调查。一些作者因创作和传播淫秽内容被处以巨额罚款，或被判处数年监禁。

At the center of the crackdown is Boys’ Love, a genre of romance between men that is mostly written and read online, and mostly by heterosexual women. Originally from Japan, it has developed a fervent niche following in China and other Asian countries since the 1990s, offering fans an alternative to the stereotypes of passive, obedient women and macho men in many mainstream love stories.

此次打击行动针对的是耽美文学——描写男性间恋爱的浪漫题材，主要由异性恋女性创作并在网络传播。耽美源自日本，自1990年代以来在中国及其他亚洲国家发展出狂热的小众追随者，它为粉丝提供了不同于主流爱情故事中“被动顺从的女性”与“阳刚男性”这些刻板印象的叙事选择。

At its peak in the 2010s, Boys’ Love gave rise to some of China’s most popular television and web dramas, and it launched the careers of some of the country’s biggest male stars. But that has changed in recent years.

在2010年代的高峰时期，耽美题材催生了中国一些最受欢迎的电视剧和网剧，也成就了几位国内顶级男明星的演艺生涯。但近年来，这一情况已经发生了变化。

As the genre grew more popular, state media began to denounce it as “vulgar,” claiming that the gay story lines could distort young readers’ sexual orientations. Shows were canceled, and television regulators banned Boys’ Love adaptations and gay-themed content more broadly. In a 2018 case that angered many Chinese internet users, a popular author was sentenced to 10 years in prison on obscenity charges.

随着这一题材越来越受欢迎，官方媒体开始对其进行抨击，称其“低俗”，并声称其中的同性恋情节可能会“扭曲”青少年的性取向。一些节目被叫停，电视监管机构也全面禁止了耽美改编作品和同性题材内容。2018年，一位知名作者因被控传播淫秽内容而被判处10年徒刑，判决引发了众多中国网民的愤怒。

印有耽美角色的笔记本及其他周边商品。该题材曾在2010年代激发了中国热门电视剧的创作灵感，相关作品在中国仍有销售，但限制已趋严格。

Some Boys’ Love writers responded to the pressure by leaving out sex scenes or downplaying the stories’ gay overtones, casting the pairings as “bromances.” Such works are still available in China. But other authors, who wanted to write more explicit stories, sought refuge in overseas publishing platforms like Haitang Literature City, a Taiwanese website that readers in China can access only with software that circumvents the state’s internet firewall.

一些耽美作者在压力下选择删去性描写，或淡化故事中的同性恋色彩，将角色之间的关系描绘为“兄弟情”。这类作品目前在中国仍然可以看到。但也有一些希望创作更露骨内容的作者转而投向海外出版平台，例如台湾的网站“海棠文学城”。中国读者只有借助翻墙软件绕过国家的网络防火墙，才能访问该平台。

Now, even that platform is no longer safe. The authors who were detained by the police in Jixi County in Anhui and the city of Lanzhou in Gansu had been publishing on Haitang.

如今，即便海棠也不再安全。那些在安徽省绩溪县和甘肃省兰州市被警方拘留的作者都是在海棠文学城上发表作品的。

The crackdown has led to heated debate about creative freedom and the government’s efforts to police morality. Online commentators noted that some people convicted of rape or child abduction had received lighter sentences than Boys’ Love authors.

这场打击行动引发了关于创作自由和政府道德审查的激烈争论。有网友指出，一些强奸犯或拐卖儿童者所受到的判罚竟然比耽美作者还要轻。

Lao Dongyan, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote on social media that law enforcement seemed more preoccupied with “safeguarding social mores and sexual morality” than with protecting individuals’ rights. That post has since been removed.

位于北京的清华大学的法学教授劳东燕在社交媒体上写道，执法机关似乎更关心的是“对社会风化与性道德的保护”，而不是保护个体权益。这条帖文后来已被删除。

To many people, the arrests also show how much the space for female and L.G.B.T.Q. expression has shrunk in China.

在许多人看来，这些逮捕事件也反映了中国女性和LGBTQ群体的表达空间日益缩小。

The scale of the crackdown is not entirely clear, partly because many authors have been afraid to talk about it. Also, discussion of the topic online has been heavily censored. But some observers say it appears to be the first time that Boys’ Love writers have been charged with crimes en masse, rather than merely censored or targeted individually.

此次打击行动的规模尚不十分清楚，部分原因是许多作者害怕谈论此事。此外，网络上有关该话题的讨论也受到严格审查。但一些观察人士表示，这似乎是耽美作者首次以犯罪名义被大规模起诉，而不仅仅是遭到审查或被单独针对。

In Gansu, the police may have arrested as many as 50 writers in recent weeks, according to one Chinese news outlet. Two lawyers who spoke to The New York Times said each of them represented an author who had recently been detained. One of the lawyers, Wu Jie, whose client is the graduate student, said he had direct knowledge of at least six other cases.

据一家中国新闻媒体报道，甘肃警方近期可能已逮捕多达50名作家。两位接受《纽约时报》采访的律师表示，他们各自代理了一名最近被拘留的作者。其中一位律师吴杰（音）的委托人就是那名研究生，他表示自己直接知道的至少还有另外六起类似案件。

Scholars, lawyers and others have speculated that the police might be targeting the writers for financial reasons. Local governments in China are burdened with debt, and some have turned to extorting businesses in other provinces, on exaggerated or made-up charges, to fill their coffers. The police in both Gansu and Anhuihave detained Boys’ Love authors from other provinces.

学者、律师及其他人士推测，警方可能是出于经济原因而针对这些作家。中国地方政府负债累累，一些地方通过对外省企业以夸大或捏造的指控进行勒索，以填补财政缺口。甘肃和安徽的警方均曾拘留来自外省的耽美作家。

Reached by phone, a member of the Lanzhou police staff said that “some details aren’t convenient to disclose.” A staff member for the Jixi County police said she was not aware of the cases.

电话联系兰州警方，对方一名工作人员表示“有些细节不便透露”。安徽绩溪县警方的一名工作人员则称她并不了解这些案件。

宣传两部耽美漫画《人鱼陷落》和《再见，我的国王》的海报。

Chinese obscenity laws are vague, prohibiting works that “explicitly portray sexual behavior,” with exceptions for those with scientific or artistic value. Producing or distributing obscene material for profit can be punished with life imprisonment if the conditions are “especially serious,” a quality that officials have said can be measured in earnings or clicks.

中国的淫秽法条较为模糊，禁止“露骨描写性行为”的作品，但对具有科学或艺术价值的作品除外。如果以营利为目的制作或传播淫秽物品，且情节“特别严重”，可判处终身监禁。官方表示，是否“特别严重”可以通过收益或点击量来衡量。

The authorities have also targeted creators of heterosexual pornography and erotic fiction. But they have singled out gay content as especially forbidden. For example, a government-backed group of internet companies and research institutes has included “homosexuality and other sexual perversions” in its definition of obscenity.

当局也打击异性恋色情内容和情色小说的创作者，但将同性恋内容列为重点禁区。例如，一个由政府支持的互联网公司和研究机构组成的团体将“同性恋及其他性变态”纳入淫秽内容的定义之中。

Cassie Hu, a China-based academic who studies Boys’ Love, said targeting it was a way “to control and highly supervise straight women” and reinforce the traditional, heterosexual family structure amid concern about China’s plummeting birthrate.

在中国从事耽美研究的学者凯茜·胡（音）表示，打压耽美是一种“对异性恋女性进行控制和高度监管”的手段，同时也为了在中国出生率急剧下降的背景下，强化传统的异性恋家庭结构。

The authors who were detained last year, by the police in Jixi County, seemed to be among the most popular writers on the Haitang platform.

去年被绩溪县警方拘留的那些作者，似乎是海棠文学城平台上最受欢迎的一批作者。

One author, who used the pen name Yun Jian, had written 38 novels since 2018 on Haitang, making the equivalent of more than $250,000, according to a court ruling posted online by someone who said he was the writer’s husband. She was sentenced to four and a half years in prison and fined twice what she had earned on the platform, according to the ruling.

一位笔名为云间的作者自2018年以来在海棠文学城上创作了38部小说，据一位自称是她丈夫的人在网上发布的法院判决书显示，她在该平台共赚取了超过185万元。根据判决，她被判处四年半有期徒刑，并被处以通过平台所得两倍的罚款。

Ye Bin, a lawyer for four other authors who were arrested, said they were women in their 20s who had earned $27,000 to $56,000 from their writing. All were given suspended prison sentences and fined twice as much as they had earned, Mr. Ye said.

叶斌（音）是另外四名被捕作者的律师，他表示，这四人都是20多岁的女性，通过写作赚取了19万元到39万元不等。叶律师称，她们都被判了缓刑，并被处以收入两倍的罚款。

Mr. Ye declined to discuss details of the stories written by the authors he represents. He acknowledged an argument that many critics of the Boys’ Love writers have made: that artistic freedom should be weighed alongside other considerations, like protecting minors. But he said China’s obscenity standards, which were last updated in 2010, should reflect changing societal attitudes.

叶斌拒绝谈论他所代理的作者们作品的具体内容。他承认，许多批评耽美作者的人提出了一个值得讨论的观点：艺术自由应与其他因素一同权衡，比如保护未成年人。但他表示，中国的淫秽内容标准自2010年后就没有更新，它理应反映社会观念的变化。

“When moral standards have been revolutionized, I think it’s inappropriate to still be using the sentencing standards from 20 years ago,” he said.

“当道德标准已经发生了巨大变化时，我认为仍在使用20年前的量刑标准是不合适的，”他说道。

日本耽美漫画《远方的家》的宣传海报。耽美题材起源于日本。

More writers were arrested this spring, by the police in Lanzhou. This time, the authors were less well known, according to interviews with two lawyers involved in the cases, as well as social media posts. They included university students and a writer who had earned less than $30, according to a post by one lawyer, Zhao Yijie.

今年春天，更多作者被兰州警方逮捕。据两位参与相关案件的律师以及社交媒体上的帖子透露，这次被捕的作者知名度较低，其中包括一些大学生，根据律师赵一杰的帖文所述，还有一位作者仅赚了不到200元。

Mr. Wu, the lawyer defending the graduate student who earned about $400, said his client was caught off guard by her detention.

为那位赚了大约3000元的研究生辩护的吴律师表示，他的当事人对自己被拘留一事完全措手不及。

“The police asked her during the interrogation, ‘Did you know that writing this could be a crime?’ She answered that she didn’t know until the police contacted her,” Mr. Wu said. (His client declined an interview request through Mr. Wu.)

“警方在审讯时问她：‘你知道写这种东西可能构成犯罪吗？’她回答说，直到警方联系她，她才知道，”吴律师说。（他的当事人通过他婉拒了采访请求。）

Even though the crackdown seems to have primarily targeted writers of explicit gay romances, the arrests are a warning sign about freedom of expression in general, said Liang Ge, a lecturer at University College London who studies Boys’ Love.

尽管此次打压行动主要针对的是描写露骨同性恋情节的作家，但也是对整体言论自由发出的一个警示信号，伦敦大学学院研究耽美的讲师梁歌（音）表示。

“It’s not just about writing obscenity, pornography, erotic or queer romances,” Dr. Ge said. “Social media users feel that there is increasingly little space for them to breathe freely.”

“这不仅仅是关于写作淫秽、色情、情色或酷儿恋爱作品的问题，”梁歌表示，“社交媒体用户普遍感到，他们可以自由呼吸的空间正变得越来越小。”