President Trump spent less than 24 hours at the NATO summit this week, but he was eager to use the brief diplomatic visit to cast himself as a global peacemaker.

特朗普总统本周在北约峰会的停留时间不到24小时，但他渴望利用这次短暂的外交访问将自己塑造成全球和平缔造者。

Before he even arrived in the Netherlands, he had negotiated a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, NATO had acquiesced to his demand to increase military spending and he and his allies had argued he should get the Nobel Peace Prize, an accolade he has been angling to win for years.

甚至在抵达荷兰之前，他就促成了以色列和伊朗之间的停火协议，北约默然接受了他提出的增加军费开支的要求，他和他的盟友们还认为他应该获得诺贝尔和平奖，这是他多年来一直渴望获得的荣誉。

So Mr. Trump was irked when asked at his news conference on Wednesday about one of his failed foreign policy promises: Why had he not ended the war between Russia and Ukraine, which he had repeatedly promised to do within 24 hours while running for president?

因此，当特朗普在周三的新闻发布会上被问及一项未兑现的外交政策承诺时，他大为光火：他在竞选总统时曾多次承诺在24小时内结束俄乌战争，为何还没有做到。

Mr. Trump said the conflict was “more difficult” than anyone understood, blamed both President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and quickly moved on.

特朗普表示，这场冲突比任何人所理解的“更棘手”，他同时指责俄罗斯总统普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯基，然后迅速转移了话题。

Mr. Trump’s sojourn in the Netherlands, which included a night’s stay at a royal palace, offered a glimpse into how he sees himself — and wants to be seen — on the world stage. He wants recognition for his role in ending wars, although he appeared less interested in the details of making them stick.

特朗普在荷兰的短暂行程包括夜宿王宫一晚，让人们得以窥见他如何看待自己——以及希望别人如何看待他——在世界舞台上的位置。他希望自己在结束战争方面发挥的作用得到认可，尽管他似乎对巩固和平成果的细节兴趣寥寥。

“I mean, look, we just ended a war in 12 days that was simmering for 30 years frankly,” he said of the conflict between Israel and Iran. He expressed total confidence that Iran had no interest in pursuing nuclear weapons again — so much so that he said he did not care about any diplomatic agreement to formalize that.

“我的意思是，你看，坦率地说，我们刚刚在12天内结束了一场酝酿了30年的战争，”他在谈到以色列和伊朗之间的冲突时说。他坚信伊朗无意重启核武计划，甚至宣称不在乎为此签订任何正式的外交协议。

“He gets bored quickly,” said Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consulting organization. “He loses interest, and he has recency bias.”

“他很快就会厌倦，”地缘政治咨询机构欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默说。“他失去了兴趣，他有近因偏差（recency bias，指只看眼前，忽视历史的倾向——编注）。”

One exception, Mr. Bremmer said, is the president’s yearslong focus on cajoling the United States’s NATO allies into playing a larger role in the alliance’s defense efforts, which Mr. Trump successfully secured this week.

布雷默指出了一个例外，那就是总统多年来一直专注于说服美国的北约盟友在北约的防务努力中发挥更大的作用，特朗普本周成功地做到了这一点。

“Frankly this has probably been Trump’s best week in terms of foreign policy of his second term,” Mr. Bremmer said. “I think pretty much any objective observer would say that.”

“坦率地说，这可能是特朗普第二个任期内外交政策表现最出色的一周，”布雷默说。“我想几乎任何客观的观察者都会这么说。”

Mr. Trump would most likely agree, and he wants more public acknowledgment of that. Last week, he unleashed his frustration on that front by complaining that he believes he will never win the Nobel Peace Prize.

特朗普本人想必深感认同，而且他渴望获得更多的公众赞誉。上周，他表达了自己在这方面的不满，他抱怨说，相信自己永远不会获得诺贝尔和平奖。

“No, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that’s all that matters to me!” he wrote on Truth Social.

“不，无论我做什么，包括俄罗斯/乌克兰、以色列/伊朗，无论结果如何，我都拿不到诺贝尔和平奖，但人民心里有数，这才是我最在乎的！”他在Truth Social上写道。

And this was before the United States dropped bombs on Iran and the negotiated a cease-fire.

这是在美国在伊朗投下炸弹、双方达成停火协议之前。

In addition to his diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, Mr. Trump announced last month that the United States had helped broker peace between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, countries with a 30-year history of conflict. Also last month, the president announced a cease-fire between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers, and he has repeatedly bragged about his efforts to attain one.

除了在中东的外交努力，特朗普上个月还宣布，美国帮助促成了卢旺达和刚果民主共和国之间的和平，这两个国家之间的冲突已经持续了30年。同样是在上个月，总统宣布自己促成了印度和巴基斯坦这两个拥核国家之间实现停火，并一再吹嘘自己为此付出的努力。

“We stopped the nuclear war,” Mr. Trump said Wednesday at the NATO summit, saying he offered to make trade deals to end the conflict. India’s foreign ministry has denied the president’s claims.

“我们阻止了核战争，”特朗普周三在北约峰会上说，并表示他曾提出达成贸易协议以结束冲突。印度外交部否认了总统的说法。

Mr. Trump also often refers to his efforts in his first term to negotiate economic normalization agreements between Serbia and Kosovo. (Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has a deal with the Serbia’s government to build a half-billion-dollar hotel and apartment complex in the center of its capital, Belgrade. The project also involves the Trump Organization, run by the president’s sons Eric and Donald Jr.)

特朗普还经常提到他在自己的第一个任期内促成了塞尔维亚和科索沃之间的经济关系正常化。（特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳与塞尔维亚政府达成了一项协议，将在塞尔维亚首都贝尔格莱德市中心建造一座价值5亿美元的酒店公寓综合体。该项目还涉及他的两个儿子埃里克和小唐纳德经营的特朗普集团。）

“With President Trump as commander in chief, the world is a much safer place,” the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Thursday.

周四，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特说，“有了特朗普总统担任三军统帅，世界要安全得多。”

But for all of Mr. Trump’s efforts to take a victory lap, NATO leaders did not have much of a chance to address some of the most pressing issues facing the alliance. The summit had been shortened by Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, to accommodate Mr. Trump, who has long disdained international gatherings, and the leaders largely avoided topics that might cause fractures with the American president. (Mr. Bremmer said Mr. Rutte “delegitimized” the role of NATO leader, calling his obsequiousness toward Mr. Trump “embarrassing.”)

但是，尽管特朗普竭力庆祝胜利成果，北约领导人却几乎没有机会来解决该联盟面临的一些最紧迫的议题。北约秘书长马克·吕特缩短了峰会日程，迁就长期以来对国际会议不屑一顾的特朗普，与会领导人也基本回避了可能导致与美国总统产生分歧的话题。（布雷默说，吕特此举令北约领导人的角色“失去了正当性”，称其对特朗普的谄媚姿态“令人尴尬”。）

The communiqué, which was only five paragraphs, did not address the new Russia strategy, which leaders tasked themselves with developing at last year’s summit. The document only made passing mention of Ukraine and made no reference to China.

峰会公报只有五段文字，并没有提到各国领导人在去年峰会上提出的对俄新战略。文件对乌克兰一笔带过，而且没有提及中国。

“I think success on the defense spending pledge, but on the downside, a lot of other important issues weren’t even addressed, and I think the alliance will have to wrestle with those issues over the coming months,” said Matthew Kroenig, an expert at the Atlantic Council, a think tank.

智库大西洋理事会的专家马修·克鲁尼格表示：“我认为防务开支承诺虽然取得了成功，但不利的方面是，许多其他重要问题被搁置。我认为，在未来几个月里，北约将不得不应对这些议题。”

But for Mr. Trump, those details did not seem to be top of mind. On Thursday, he reposted a nearly week-old message from Representative Claudia Tenney, a Republican from New York.

但对特朗普来说，这些细节似乎并非他的关注重点。周四，他转发了纽约州共和党众议员克劳迪娅·坦尼近一周前的一个帖子。

“I’ve officially nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize twice!” she wrote on X, re-sharing Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post in which he complained that he had not won the award. “He has done more for world peace than any modern leader.”

“我已经两次正式提名特朗普总统获得诺贝尔和平奖！”她在X上写道，并转发了特朗普抱怨自己无法获奖的Truth Social帖子。“他为世界和平做出的贡献比任何现代领导人都多。”

It has been nearly two decades since any country elbowed its way into the club of nuclear-armed nations. President Trump, with his bombing of three Iranian nuclear installations last weekend, has vowed to keep the door shut.

上次有国家挤进核武器国俱乐部已是近20年前的事情了。美国总统特朗普用上周末轰炸伊朗三处核设施的做法，立誓关上这个俱乐部的大门。

Whether Mr. Trump’s pre-emptive strike will succeed in doing that is hard to predict, so soon after the attack and the fragile cease-fire that has followed. But already it is stirring fears that Iran, and other countries, will draw a very different conclusion than the one the White House intended: that having a bomb is the only protection in a threatening world.

特朗普先发制人的打击行动能否奏效还难以预测，因为打击和随后达成的脆弱的停火协议都是刚发生不久的事情，但一个阴影已经逐渐产生，那就是伊朗以及其他国家将从这件事中得出与白宫预期截然不同的结论：在一个充满威胁的世界，拥有核弹是唯一的防卫手段。

The last country to get one, North Korea, has never faced such an attack. After years of defying demands to dismantle its nuclear program, it is now viewed as largely impregnable. Mr. Trump exchanged friendly letters with its dictator, Kim Jong-un, and met him twice in a fruitless effort to negotiate a deal. In Iran’s case, Mr. Trump deployed B-2 bombers just weeks after making a fresh diplomatic overture to its leaders.

朝鲜是上一个拥核国家，它从未面临过这种打击。朝鲜多年抵制国际社会的弃核要求，其核地位现在已经难以改变。特朗普与朝鲜独裁者金正恩有过“友好的信件”往来，还见过两次面，均无功而返。反观伊朗的核问题，特朗普在对伊朗领导人做出新的外交姿态数周后，便出动了B-2轰炸机。

“The risks of Iran acquiring a small nuclear arsenal are now higher than they were before the events of last week,” said Robert J. Einhorn, an arms control expert who negotiated with Iran during the Obama administration. “We can assume there are a number of hard-liners who are arguing that they should cross that nuclear threshold.”

“伊朗获得一个小核武库的风险现在比上周的事情发生前更高了，”曾在奥巴马执政期间与伊朗谈判的军控专家罗伯特·艾因霍恩说。“我们可以料想，一些强硬派正在力主迈过拥核门槛。”

Iran would face formidable hurdles to producing a bomb even if it made a concerted dash for one, Mr. Einhorn said, not least the knowledge that if the United States and Israel detect such a move, they will strike again. It is far from clear that Iran’s leaders, isolated, weakened and in disarray, want to provoke them.

即使伊朗孤注一掷，它在制造核弹上仍会面临重重障碍，艾因霍恩说，尤其是伊朗知道，如果美国和以色列察觉到异常的话，将再次发动攻击。现在尚不可知处于孤立、削弱且混乱状态的伊朗领导人是否甘愿招致打击。

麦克萨尔科技公司周日发布的卫星图像显示了遭美国打击后的伊朗福尔多铀浓缩设施。

Yet the logic of proliferation looms large in a world where the nuclear-armed great powers — the United States, Russia and China — are viewed as increasingly unreliable and even predatory toward their neighbors. From the Persian Gulf and Central Europe to East Asia, analysts said, nonnuclear countries are watching Iran’s plight and calculating lessons they should learn from it.

然而，核扩散逻辑的阴影已逼近，因为世界普遍认为拥核大国——美国、俄罗斯、中国——越来越不可靠，甚至欺负弱小的邻国。分析人士指出，从波斯湾和中欧到东亚，无核国家都在关注伊朗的困境，盘算着自己应该从中汲取的教训。

“Certainly, North Korea doesn’t rue the day it acquired nuclear weapons,” said Christopher R. Hill, who led lengthy, ultimately unsuccessful, talks with Pyongyang in 2007 and 2008 to try to persuade it to dismantle its nuclear program.

“朝鲜当然不后悔拥核之日，”克里斯托弗·希尔说，他曾是2007年和2008年与平壤谈判的牵头人，这些试图说服朝鲜放弃核武项目的谈判进行了很长时间，但最终以失败告终。

The lure of the bomb, Mr. Hill said, has become stronger for America’s allies in the Middle East and Asia. Since World War II, they have sheltered under an American security umbrella. But they now confront a president, in Mr. Trump, who views alliances as incompatible with his vision of “America First.”

希尔指出，核弹诱惑对美国的中东和亚洲盟友变得越来越大。自第二次世界大战以来，这些盟友一直在美国安全保护伞的庇护下。但现在它们面对的是特朗普，这位总统认为联盟体系与他的“美国优先”愿景格格不入。

“I’d be very careful with the assumption that there is a U.S. nuclear umbrella,” said Mr. Hill, who served as ambassador to South Korea, Iraq, Poland, and Serbia under Democratic and Republican presidents. “Countries like Japan and South Korea are wondering whether they can rely on the U.S.”

“对于所谓美国核保护伞的假设，我会持极其谨慎态度，”希尔说，他曾在民主党人和共和党人当总统期间出任驻韩国、伊拉克、波兰以及塞尔维亚大使。“像日本和韩国这样的国家已在质疑，美国是否还靠得住。”

Support for developing nuclear weapons has risen in South Korea, though its newly elected president, Lee Jae-myung, has vowed to improve relations with North Korea. In 2023, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. signed a deal with Seoul to involve it more in nuclear planning with the United States, in part to head off a push by South Korean politicians and scientists to develop their own nuclear weapons capability.

尽管新上任的总统李在明已誓言改善与朝鲜的关系，但韩国支持发展核武器的人越来越多。2023年，美国总统拜登与韩国签署了一项让该国更多地参与美国核项目的协议，部分是为了防止韩国政界人士和科学家推动发展本国核武能力的努力。

平壤民众观看政府发布的火箭发射视频，据称发射时间为2017年。

In Japan, the public has long favored disarmament, a legacy of the American atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. But it has begun debating whether to store nuclear weapons from the United States on its soil, as some members of NATO do. Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister, said that if Ukraine had kept some of its Soviet-era bombs, it might have avoided a Russian invasion.

在日本，公众受1945年美国在广岛和长崎投下原子弹遗留下来的影响，长期以来支持裁军。但在日本国内已开始辩论是否效仿部分北约国家，在本土部署美国核武器。前首相安倍晋三曾声称，如果乌克兰保留了一些苏联时代的核弹的话，或可免遭俄罗斯的入侵。

President Vladimir V. Putin’s threats to use tactical nuclear weapons early in that conflict gave pause to the Biden administration about how aggressively to arm the Ukrainian military. It also deepened fears that other revisionist powers could use nuclear blackmail to intimidate their neighbors.

俄罗斯总统普京曾在俄乌战争早期威胁使用战术核武器，迫使拜登政府在如何积极地武装乌克兰军队上有所犹豫，也加深了人们对其他修正主义大国可能利用核讹诈恐吓邻国的担忧。

The lesson of Ukraine could end up being, “If you have nuclear weapons, keep them. If you don’t have them yet, get them, especially if you lack a strong defender like the U.S. as your ally and if you have a beef with a big country that could plausibly lead to war,” wrote Bruce Riedel and Michael E. O’Hanlon, analysts at the Brookings Institution, a research group in Washington, in 2022.

外界从乌克兰身上学到的教训最终可能是，“如果你拥有核武器，留着它们。如果你还没有，就去争取，尤其是当你没有美国这样的强大盟友作为你的捍卫者，而且你与一个大国存在可能导致战争的争端时，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的分析师布鲁斯·里德尔和迈克尔·奥汉隆在2022年写道。

Saudi Arabia, an ally of the United States and archrival of Iran, has watched Tehran’s nuclear ambitions with alarm. Experts say it would feel huge pressure to develop its own weapon if Iran ever obtained one. The United States has tried to reassure the Saudis by dangling assistance to a civil nuclear program, but those negotiations were interrupted by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.

美国的盟友沙特阿拉伯是伊朗的主要竞争对手，它对德黑兰的核野心保持着高度警惕。专家们说，如果伊朗确实获得了核武器的话，沙特会感受到发展核武器的巨大压力。美国虽以民用核计划援助安抚沙特，但相关谈判被色列在加沙对哈马斯发动的战争所打断。

And yet, for all the predictions of a regional arms race, it has yet to occur. Experts say that is a testament to the success of nonproliferation policies, as well as to the checkered history of countries that pursued weapons.

然而，尽管外界普遍预测会出现地区军备竞赛，但这种情况还未发生。专家们表示，这既是防扩散政策成功的证明，也折射出拥核这条路不好走。

The Middle East is a messy landscape of dashed nuclear dreams. Iraq, Syria and Libya all had their programs dismantled by diplomacy, sanctions or military force. In the category of cautionary tales, Libya’s is perhaps the most vivid: Muammar el-Qaddafi gave up his weapons of mass destruction in 2003. Eight years later, after a NATO-backed military operation toppled his government, he crawled out of a drainpipe to face a brutal death at the hands of his own people.

中东是拥核梦想破灭的混乱之地。伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚的核项目都已被外交、制裁或军事打击终结。作为警示案例，利比亚的结局也许最让人记忆犹新：穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲在2003年放弃了他的大规模杀伤性武器。八年后，北约支持的军事行动推翻了他的政府，卡扎菲从一个水泥管道里爬出来后，被他的人民殴打枪杀。

乔治·W·布什总统视察利比亚交出来的部分材料，摄于2004年。交出这些材料是利比亚同意放弃核武器和导弹计划的一部分。

Iran’s strategy of aggressively enriching uranium, while stopping short of a bomb, did not ultimately protect it either.

伊朗的战略是，在积极进行铀浓缩的同时不制造核弹，但这个战略最终也未能保护它。

“To the extent that people are looking at Iran as a test case, Trump has shown that its strategy is not a guarantee that you will prevent a military attack,” said Gary Samore, a professor at Brandeis University who worked on arms control negotiations in the Obama and Clinton administrations.

“如果有人正在把伊朗视为一个案例的话，特朗普已向世界展示，伊朗的战略不能保证你免遭军事打击，”布兰迪斯大学教授加里·萨莫尔说，他曾在奥巴马政府和克林顿政府参与军控谈判工作。

Mr. Samore said it was too soon to say how the Israeli and American strikes on Iran would affect the calculus of other countries. “How does this end?” he said. “Does it end with a deal? Or is Iran left to pursue a nuclear weapon?”

萨莫尔说，讨论以色列和美国对伊朗的打击会如何影响其他国家的考量还为时过早。“这次结局如何？”他问道。“是达成协议？还是伊朗继续致力于发展核武器？”

Experts on proliferation are, by nature, wary. But some are trying to find a silver lining in the events of the last week. Mr. Einhorn said that in delivering on his threat to bomb a nuclear-minded Iran, Mr. Trump had sent a reassuring message to American allies facing their own nuclear insecurities.

研究核扩散问题的专家天性谨慎。但有些人试图从上周发生的事情中找到一线光明。艾因霍恩说，特朗普兑现了他要对希望拥核的伊朗进行轰炸的威胁，这给面临核威慑焦虑的美国盟友们递上了定心丸。

“In Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing,” Mr. Einhorn said, “they’ve taken notice not just of the reach and capacity of the U.S. military, but the willingness of this president to use that capability.”

“莫斯科方面、平壤方面，还有北京方面，”艾因霍恩说，“他们不仅见识到了美军的作战范围和实力，也注意到了这位总统有使用那种能力的意愿。”

I heard some surprising refrains on my recent travels through China. “Leave your bags here,” a Chinese acquaintance or tour guide would suggest when I ducked off the streets into a public bathroom. “Don’t worry,” they’d shrug when I temporarily lost sight of my young son in the crowds.

前不久在中国旅行时，我经常听到一些让人惊讶的提醒。“把你的包留在外面，”我认识的中国人或中国导游在我打算走进大街上的公共厕所时会这样建议。“不用担心，”当我年幼的儿子暂时消失在人群中时，他们也会毫不在意地说。

The explanation always followed: “Nobody will do anything,” they’d say knowingly. Or, “There’s no crime.” And then, always, “There are so many cameras!”

接下来的解释总是——“没人会动你东西，”他们胸有成足地说道。或着“这里很安全的”。然后，必定会补上一句，“这里有这么多的摄像头！”

I can’t imagine such blasé faith in public safety back when I last lived in China in 2013, but on this visit it was true: cameras gawked from poles, flashed as we drove through intersections, lingered on faces as we passed through stations or shops. And that was just the most obvious edge of the ubiquitous, multilayered tracking that has come to define life in China. I came away troubled by my time in some of the world’s most-surveilled places — not on China’s account, but because I felt that I’d gotten a taste of our own American future. Wasn’t this, after all, the logical endpoint of an evolution already underway in America?

我上次在中国生活是2013年，那时我无法想象人们会对公共安全如此笃定，但这次旅行的情况确实是这样：电线杆上的摄像头虎视眈眈；我们的车经过十字路口时，摄像头会闪烁拍照；进入车站或商店时，摄像头会“刷”我们的脸。而这些不过是中国日常生活中无处不在、多层次监控的最明显的一面。在世界上监控最严密的一些地方度过一段时间后，我心怀不安地离开了那里，让我忧虑的不是中国，而是仿佛提前尝到了美国未来的滋味。说到底，这不正是美国当前这样发展下去的必然结果吗？

There was a crash course on the invasive reality of a functionally cash-free society: credit cards refused and verge-of-extinct paper bills spurned. I had to do the thing I’d hoped to avoid, link a credit card to WeChat. That behemoth Chinese “super app” offers everything from banking to municipal services to social media to shopping, and is required to share data with the Chinese authorities. (Elon Musk, by the way, reportedly wants to turn his own app, X, into an invasive offering modeled after WeChat.) Having resigned myself to all-virtual payments, I knew I was corralled like everyone else into unbroken visibility, unable to spend a single yuan or wander down a forgotten side street without being tracked and recorded.

一个无现金社会给我上了有关侵入现实的速成课：信用卡被拒收，濒临淘汰的纸币被嫌弃。我不得不做了件本想避免的事情：把信用卡绑定微信。微信是中国的一款巨无霸般的“超级应用”，提供从银行到市政服务、从社交媒体到购物的所有功能，而且必须跟官方共享数据。（顺便说一下，据说埃隆·马斯克想把他拥有的应用程序X变成一个仿效微信的侵入式产品。）无奈地接受了移动支付后，我知道我和其他人一样，被圈进了无间断监控的围栏，哪怕花一元钱或拐进无名小巷，都会被追踪记录。

Crisscrossing China as a chaperone on my son’s school trip, I felt that a country I’d fondly remembered as a little rough-and-tumble had gotten calmer and cleaner. A part of me hated to see it. In my own mind, I couldn’t separate the safe, tidy streets from the repressive system of political control that underpins all those helpful cameras.

作为儿子学校旅行的随行家长，我穿梭于中国各地，中国以前曾给我留下的美好印象是喧嚣杂乱，这次给我的感觉是国家变得更平静、更干净了。这种变化竟让我有些惋惜。在我的意识里，安全整洁的街道与支撑着万千监控镜头的管控体系始终无法被割裂看待。

The Chinese Communist Party famously uses surveillance to crush dissent and, increasingly, is applying predictive algorithms to get ahead of both crimes and protest. People who screen as potential political agitators, for example, can be prevented from stepping onto trains bound for Beijing. During the Covid pandemic, Chinese health authorities used algorithmic contact tracing and QR codes to block people suspected of viral exposure from entering public spaces. Those draconian health initiatives helped to mainstream invasive surveillance and increase biometric data collection.

中国共产党以监控手段压制异见著称，而且日益借助预测算法来防止犯罪和抗议活动发生。例如，被政府筛定为潜在政治煽动者的人可能会被阻止登上进京列车。在新冠疫情期间，中国的卫生部门使用算法追踪接触者，并使用二维码来阻止被怀疑为接触者的人进入公共场所。这些严厉的防疫措施帮助侵入式监控的普及，助推了生物信息采集的常态化。

It would be comforting to think that China has created a singular dystopia, utterly removed from our American reality. But we are not as different as we might like to think.

如果认为中国已制造出来的反乌托邦世界独一无二、与美国的现实毫无关系，那也许让人稍感宽慰。但美国与中国之间的差异并没有我们一厢情愿以为的那么大。

Thankfully, our political architecture lacks a unified power structure akin to the C.C.P. Americans — who tend to value individual liberties over collective well-being — have deeply embedded rights which, at least theoretically, protect us from such abuses.

幸亏我们的政治架构中没有类似于中共的那种统一权力结构。往往将个人自由置于集体福祉之上的美国人享有宪法保障的权利，至少在理论上，这些权利保护我们免受监控滥用。

But if Americans have learned one thing recently, it’s that rights we thought of as inalienable can prove perishable. We still think about surveillance as something that protects us (data-grabbing door cameras and security systems), that makes life easier (smart home systems, mapping tools, useful apps) or, at worst, that figures out how to sell us things we like (cookies, social media). Many Americans are oblivious to the porous boundary between private companies that collect our intimate details and the arms of government buying it up. As the Trump administration hardens into increasingly authoritarian methods of control, China should be a reminder that promises of safety and convenience can camouflage the machinery of political abuse.

但如果说美国人最近有所领悟的话，那就是我们过去认为不可剥夺的权利其实也是会消亡的。我们仍视监控为保护（例如收集大量数据的门禁摄像头和家庭防盗系统），让我们的生活更容易（例如智能家居系统、地图工具和实用应用软件），至多是推销利器（例如利用cookie、社交媒体）。许多美国人对私营公司收集个人信息与政府部门购买数据之间的模糊界限浑然不觉。随着特朗普政府日益采用威权化管控手段，中国的现状理应成为一种警示，即所谓安全便利的承诺，实则政治滥权的伪装。

***

***

As my face was getting scanned all over China, Elon Musk’s minions with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency were ransacking federal agencies to seize Americans’ data and sensitive information. Legal experts maintain that accessing this data is illegal under federal privacy laws, which broadly forbid government agencies from disclosing our personal information to anyone, including other parts of the government, without our written consent. But, in the event, neither the law nor our lawmakers protected us.

我被中国各地的摄像头扫脸时，埃隆·马斯克麾下那个所谓政府效率部（简称DOGE）正在洗劫联邦机构，盗取美国人的数据和敏感信息。法律专家坚称，根据联邦隐私法，获取这些数据是非法的，联邦隐私法明文禁止政府机构在未经我们书面授权的情况下向任何人（包括政府的其他部门）泄露我们的个人信息。但这次，无论是法律还是我们的立法者都没有保护我们。

Mr. Musk’s team moved to access Social Security Administration data containing medical and mental health records, bank and credit card information, and birth and marriage certificates. This month, the Supreme Court temporarily allowed DOGE to access sensitive Social Security records. That means that DOGE staff, under the vague slogan of eliminating wasteful spending, can peruse files containing the most jealously guarded details of millions of American lives — everything from salary to addiction and psychiatric health records.

马斯克的团队已动手获取了社会保障局的数据，这些数据包含医疗和心理健康记录、银行和信用卡信息，以及出生和结婚证明。本月，最高法院暂时允许了DOGE访问敏感的社会保障记录。这意味着，DOGE工作人员能打着消除浪费性支出这个模糊口号的幌子查阅文件，这些文件中有数百万美国人生活中最小心翼翼保守的细节，包括历年的工资记录，以及毒瘾和心理健康档案等所有东西。

“What is this going to be used for?” asked Daniel Solove, a George Washington University law professor and the author of several books on privacy and technology. “What are the protections? Where does he have it? What will be done with it? What could be done with it in the future?

“这些数据将作何用途？”乔治华盛顿大学的法学教授丹尼尔·索洛夫问道，他写过多本有关隐私和技术的专著。“有什么保护措施？他把这些数据放在哪里？当前作何处理？将来又会用这些数据干什么？”

“None of these questions are answered,” he said. “There’s no transparency, no accountability, no limitations.”

“所有这些问题都没有答案，”他说。“没有透明度，没有问责，也没有任何限制措施。”

Meanwhile, the data analysis and technology firm Palantir, which was co-founded by Alex Karp and Peter Thiel (another Trump acolyte), has already received more than $113 million from the federal government since President Trump took office again. Officials have told The Times that the Trump administration is using Palantir technology to help consolidate data on Americans held by disparate federal agencies so that it could potentially create a centralized dossier. In April, Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced a $30 million contract with Palantir to create a system that will give ICE “near real time visibility” of people self-deporting, and prioritize whom to deport next.

与此同时，自从特朗普再次担任总统以来，由亚历克斯·卡普和彼得·泰尔（特朗普的又一个追随者）共同创立的数据分析公司Palantir已从联邦政府获得了逾1.13亿美元的资金。官员们对《纽约时报》说，特朗普政府正在用Palantir的技术帮助整合不同联邦机构持有的美国人数据，让政府有可能建立一个集中档案。今年4月，美国移民和海关执法局（简称ICE）宣布与Palantir签订了一份价值3000万美元的合同，让公司创建一个系统，使ICE能“近乎实时地追踪”自我离境者，并据此锁定优先驱逐对象。

Mr. Trump’s second term has been marked by incessant talk of investing in A.I., winning at A.I., getting ready for A.I., while tech executives lavish money on Mr. Trump and jockey for favor. The president has made it clear that he doesn’t want any pesky state governments getting in the way of this sensitive, emerging technology.

在特朗普的第二任期里，关于人工智能的论调喧嚣尘上：投资人工智能，在人工智能领域获胜，为人工智能做准备，同时，科技巨头们不惜为特朗普掏大钱，试图博得他的欢心。总统已明确表示，他不想让那些令人讨厌的州政府阻碍这项敏感新兴技术的发展。

All state laws regulating A.I. — dozens of them — would be nullified, and states would be banned from creating new A.I. regulations for the next decade under a measure embedded among the tax cuts and social spending cuts that the House passed in Mr. Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Senate Republicans have proposed replacing the ban with a measure blocking federal funding for broadband projects if states regulate A.I. It’s not paranoid to ask what Mr. Trump, tech executives and their political allies have in mind.

在特朗普的“大而美法案”中，众议院向各种减税和社会支出削减措施中塞进了一项措施，将废除所有监管人工智能的几十项州法律，各州将被禁止在未来十年制定新的人工智能法规。参议院共和党人提议用另一项措施来取代该禁令，即一旦一个州要监管人工智能，联邦就停止拨发宽带项目经费。在这种情况下，希望弄清特朗普、科技高管及其政治盟友的真实想法，并非一种杞人忧天。

The government’s enthusiasm for this emerging technology is disquieting. A.I. could help to supersize the surveillance state, offering the potential to quickly synthesize and draw inferences from massive quantities of data.

政府对这种新兴技术的热情令人不安。人工智能可以帮助扩大监控国家的规模，提供快速综合大量数据，并从中得出推论的潜力。

“The really powerful thing is when personal data get integrated,” said Maya Wang, associate China director at Human Rights Watch. “Not only am I me, but I like these things, and I’m related to so-and-so, and my friends are like this, and I like to go to these events regularly on Wednesdays at 6:30. It’s knowing relationships, movements and also any irregularities.”

“真正厉害的地方在于个人数据被整合起来，”人权观察组织中国部副主任王松莲说。“我不仅是我，还包括我喜欢这些东西，我和什么什么有关，我的朋友是这样的，我喜欢每周三6:30定期去参加这些活动。它了解人际关系、活动以及任何异常行为。”

Ms. Wang mentioned Police Cloud, an ambitious Chinese public safety project that uses all manner of collected data to find hidden relationships between events and people; to spy on those considered dangerous (petitioners, dissidents, Uyghurs, people with “extreme thoughts,” according to a document reviewed by Human Rights Watch); and to combine real-time monitoring with predictions for what may be about to happen. Predictive software has been adopted by local authorities around China: A Tianjin data project designed to head off protests analyzes who is most likely to file complaints; software in the city of Nanning can warn authorities if “more than three key people” checked into a hotel.

王松莲提到了警务云，这是一个庞大的中国公共安全项目，利用收集的各种数据来发现事件和人之间的隐藏关系；监视那些被认为危险的人（上访者、异见者、维吾尔人，还有被人权观察查阅的一份文件声称为有“极端思想”的人）；并将实时监测与可能发生的事情的预测结合起来。中国各地的地方政府都采用了预测软件：天津的一个旨在阻止抗议活动的数据项目分析了谁最有可能提出投诉；南宁市的一款软件可以在“三个以上关键人物”入住酒店时向有关部门发出警告。

It’s not that our government is using the surveillance infrastructure in the same manner as China. It’s that, as far as the technology goes, it could.

这并不是说我们的政府使用监控设施的方式和中国一样。然而就目前的技术而言，这是可能的。

“People used to say, in a xenophobic way, ‘We don’t want to end up like China,’” said Caitlin Seeley George, managing director at Fight for The Future, an organization advocating rights in the digital age. “The truth is, it may be a little less visible to us, it may look a little different, but the systems are in place here to support that kind of data sharing.”

“人们过去常以一种仇外的方式说，‘我们不想落得和中国一样，’”数字时代权利倡导组织“争取未来”常务董事凯特琳·西利·乔治说。“实际上，这对我们来说可能没那么明显，看起来可能有点不同，但支持那种数据共享的系统，其实在这里也已经建立起来了。”

The government has also been using privately collected data to crack down on ordinary Americans — mostly, so far, in the realm of immigration enforcement, but not exclusively.

政府也一直在使用私人收集的数据来打击普通美国人——到目前为止，主要是在移民执法领域，但并不仅限于此。

In 2023, for example, a Nebraska teenager and her mother were imprisoned after the police obtained their private Facebook messages discussing the use of abortion pills to end the teenager’s pregnancy.

例如，在2023年，内布拉斯加州的一名少女和她的母亲被监禁，因为警方获得了她们在Facebook上讨论使用堕胎药为少女终止妊娠的私人信息。

In 2018 The Verge reported that Palantir (yes, Palantir again) had for years been secretly collaborating with New Orleans police to experiment with using troves of previously siloed data to identify people who were deemed more likely to commit crimes.

2018年，The Verge报道称，Palantir（是的，又是Palantir）多年来一直在与新奥尔良警方秘密合作，试验使用以前被隔离的数据来识别被认为更有可能犯罪的人。

Since Mr. Musk started his big DOGE data grab, a spate of lawsuits has been filed by civil liberties and technology watchdogs, labor unions and state governments seeking to stop the seizures and get more information about what’s already been handed over.

自从马斯克的DOGE开始大规模获取数据以来，公民自由和技术监管机构、工会和州政府提起了一系列诉讼，试图阻止这些数据的获取，并获得更多有关已提交数据的信息。

The government has offered little explanation for what it’s doing with our data but, in April, Wired reported that DOGE has already started to integrate immigration data with Social Security and tax data.

政府几乎没有解释它在用我们的数据做什么，但《连线》在4月报道称，政府部门已经开始将移民数据与社会保障和税收数据整合起来。

This is particularly nefarious given the recent abuse of immigration enforcement. Students here on valid visas were overtly targeted because of their political speech — specifically, for participating in legal demonstrations for Palestinian rights. The State Department officials have described plans to use A.I. surveillance to comb social media posts to identify students for visa revocation. (It’s worth noting that invasive government perusal of social media is a bipartisan tendency — under President Joe Biden, for example, the Department of Homeland Security combed social media looking for discussions of abortion after Roe v. Wade was overturned.)

鉴于最近移民执法的滥用，这种做法尤其恶劣。持有效签证的学生因为他们的政治言论——特别是参加争取巴勒斯坦人权利的合法示威——而成为公开攻击的目标。美国国务院官员描述了利用人工智能监控梳理社交媒体帖子，以识别需要被吊销签证的学生的计划。（值得注意的是，政府对社交媒体的侵入性研读是两党共同的趋势——例如，在拜登总统的领导下，国土安全部在罗诉韦德案被推翻后，搜寻了社交媒体，寻找有关堕胎的讨论。）

Surveillance and tech specialists warn: This could be just the beginning.

监视和技术专家警告称：这可能只是一个开始。

“Once you consolidate data in a massive way like this, where your tax records are living next to your federal contracting records and your political donation records, the opportunity for abuse is significant,” said Cody Venzke, a senior policy counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union, which is among the organizations suing the federal government for information about the DOGE data breach.

美国公民自由联盟高级政策顾问科迪·文兹克说：“一旦你像这样大规模地整合数据，你的税务记录就与你的联邦合同记录和政治捐款记录放在一起，滥用数据的机会就很大了。”美国公民自由联盟是起诉联邦政府、要求政府部门提供数据泄露信息的组织之一。

China manipulates data to create social credit scores that identify untrustworthy businesses or that allow overzealous officials to blacklist citizens for perceived vices.

中国通过数据操控来创建社会信用评分，以识别不值得信任的企业，或者让那些好大喜功的官员可以将他们觉得行为不端的公民列入黑名单。

Many Americans, whether they know it or not, have also been scored by state authorities, aided by ill-gotten information and predictive software.

许多美国人——不管他们是否知道——也被州政府当局利用非法获取的信息和预测软件进行了评分。

Here’s how it happens: All those private details collected by the many apps on your phone, not to mention the smart home devices, doorbell cameras and, of course, your car — that information winds up in the hands of salespeople known as data brokers. The data brokers, in turn, frequently sell to government agencies, especially law enforcement. Police who spend our tax money to buy this data are exploiting dubious loopholes, carrying out what amounts to a search and seizure en masse, without warrant or subpoena — and it happens every day.

事情是这样发生的：你手机上的许多应用程序收集的所有私人信息，更不用说智能家居设备、门铃摄像头，当然还有你的汽车——这些信息最终落入了被称为数据掮客的销售人员手中。反过来，这些数据中间商经常把数据卖给政府机构，尤其是执法部门。用我们的税款购买这些数据的警察正在利用可疑的漏洞，在没有搜查令或传票的情况下，进行大规模搜查和扣押——这种情况每天都在发生。

Some U.S. law enforcement bodies have already experimented with feeding the fruits of mass surveillance — faces, social media posts, location data and anything else they can scrounge from the data brokers — into predictive software to generate “threat scores” for individuals.

一些美国执法机构已经尝试将大规模监控的成果——面孔、社交媒体帖子、位置数据以及他们可以从数据掮客那里搜到的任何其他东西——输入预测软件，为个人生成“威胁评分”。

A Department of Justice report published late last year on A.I. and criminal justice sounded an enthusiastic note on software-generated risk assessments, noting that A.I. actuarial models “can outperform human judgments alone.”

司法部去年年底发表的一份关于人工智能和刑事司法的报告对软件生成的风险评估表现出极大的热情，指出人工智能精算模型“可以超越仅靠人类的判断”。

“Transparency is also a concern,” the report acknowledged. “Individuals who are subject to a risk assessment tool (and their representatives) may not know that the tool was used or have sufficient information to understand how it works and how it performs. Affected individuals also may not be aware of the inputs provided to the tool or have an opportunity to correct mistakes.”

“透明度也是一个问题，”报告承认。“受风险评估工具影响的个人（及其代表）可能不知道该工具已被使用，或者没有足够的信息来理解它是如何工作和执行的。受影响的个人也可能没有意识到向工具提供的输入信息，也没有机会纠正错误。”

It’s not just police. Public schools across the country have enthusiastically embraced “early warning” algorithms that plumb students’ private information to score their likelihood of dropping out. Here, too, lies the problem of cost/benefit — advocates for the early warning systems say they protect struggling or at-risk children from slipping unnoticed through the cracks. But many parents have no idea that data on their children’s attendance, behavior, and test scores are being gathered and submitted to predictive software.

不仅仅是警察。全国各地的公立学校都热衷于采用了“早期预警”算法，这种算法可以探测学生的私人信息，为他们退学的可能性打分。这里也存在成本/收益的问题——早期预警系统的倡导者说，它们保护了面临困难或有风险的儿童，使他们不会被忽视。但许多家长并不知道，有关他们孩子出勤、行为和考试成绩的数据正在被收集并提交给预测软件。

Even more troubling, school-collected data has sometimes made its way into the hands of law enforcement.

更令人不安的是，学校收集的数据有时会落入执法部门的手中。

Somehow, in all of this, our understanding of privacy — why it matters and who needs it — seems to have slumped. The men who drafted the earliest list of American rights, having recently fought an insurgency against colonial overlords who barged into their homes and stores whenever they pleased, retained a firm belief in privacy’s outsized importance as a condition of freedom. The Bill of Rights protects a range of privacies — of the home, the body, religious belief and even — as reflected in the Fifth Amendment’s right not to incriminate oneself — knowledge and personal information.

不知何故，在发生这一切的同时，我们对隐私的理解——为什么隐私很重要，谁需要隐私——似乎有所下降。起草美国最早一份权利清单的人曾发起反抗殖民统治的起义——当时的殖民者会随意闯入他们的住宅和商铺。因此他们深信，隐私是自由的一个条件，具有极其重要的意义。《权利法案》保护一系列隐私——家庭、身体、宗教信仰，甚至知识和个人信息方面的隐私，正如第五修正案中规定的不自证其罪的权利所体现的那样。

Jeremy L. Daum, a legal scholar and senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, has spent years living in China and studying the country’s legal system. That work, he said, made him a witness to rapidly shifting attitudes toward privacy both in China and in the United States. He pointed out that Americans, particularly in the wake of Sept. 11, “used to talk about giving up privacy for security.”

法律学者、耶鲁大学法学院蔡崇信中国中心高级研究员杰里米·道姆在中国生活多年，研究中国的法律制度。他说，这项工作让他见证了中国和美国对隐私态度的迅速转变。他指出，美国人，特别是在9·11事件之后，“曾经说要为了安全而放弃隐私”。

“Now we give it up for convenience, and it seems to me that our private information is getting cheaper,” he said. “The bargain is not well earned at this point.”

“现在我们为了方便而放弃了隐私，在我看来，我们的私人信息正变得越来越廉价，”他说。“在这一点上，这笔交易没有得到很好的回报。”

Back from China, I found myself reading through the Privacy Act of 1974, and felt like I had opened a time capsule. Introducing the legislation, a result of revelations about Watergate and F.B.I. surveillance, Senator Sam Ervin of North Carolina reminded lawmakers that privacy assured that “the minds and hearts of Americans remain free.” To relinquish any bit of information to the government, he warned starkly, was to give away one’s freedom.

从中国回来后，我开始通读1974年的《隐私法》，感觉就像打开了一个时间胶囊。北卡罗来纳州参议员萨姆·欧文在介绍这项因水门事件和联邦调查局监控事件而产生的立法时提醒立法者，隐私确保了“美国人的思想和心灵保持自由”。他直截了当地警告说，向政府透露任何信息都是在放弃自己的自由。

“The more the government or any institution knows about us, the more power it has over us,” Senator Ervin said. “When the government knows all of our secrets, we stand naked before official power. Stripped of our privacy, we lose our rights and privileges.”

“政府或任何机构对我们了解得越多，它对我们的权力就越大，”欧文说。“当政府知道我们所有的秘密时，我们就赤裸裸地站在官方权力面前。被剥夺了隐私，我们就失去了权利和特权。”

It’s hard to imagine a leader of today’s Senate speaking with such lucidity about privacy. Since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, we’ve repeatedly heard our leaders denigrate the siloing of our private information as if it were an impediment — and not a critical safeguard meant to protect us from the government. An executive order from Mr. Trump explicitly identifies information silos (in other words, the time-honored and legally mandated practice of federal agencies storing people’s private information secure from view, including by other parts of the government) as a source of “waste, fraud and abuse.”

很难想象一名如今的参议院领导人在谈到隐私问题时能讲得如此透彻。自9·11恐怖袭击以来，我们一再听到我们的领导人诋毁我们的私人信息孤岛机制，仿佛这是一种障碍，而不是一种旨在保护我们免受政府侵害的关键保障措施。特朗普的一项行政命令明确指出，信息孤岛（这是一种历史悠久、法律规定的做法，联邦机构将人们的私人信息安全地存储在人们看不到的地方，包括政府的其他部门）是“浪费、欺诈和滥用”的来源。

The cultural shift is, perhaps, as insidious as the surveillance itself. We know, on some level, that we are already exposed before invisible watchers. We are hooked on the tech that comes with it, and we think we can’t change it.

这种文化转变也许和监控本身一样隐蔽。我们知道，在某种程度上，我们已经暴露在无形的观察者面前。我们被它带来的技术所吸引，认为自己无法改变它。

But we can. While Congress and the federal government have, so far, remained feckless against the excesses of surveillance, state and local officials have shown a little more spine.

但是我们可以改变它。到目前为止，国会和联邦政府对过度监控仍然无动于衷，州和地方官员则表现出了更多的勇气。

Just last month, Montana became the first state to close what’s called the “data broker loophole,” restricting the government from buying private information about people — a protection that still, despite years of legislative efforts, doesn’t exist at the federal level. At least 20 states have enacted comprehensive consumer data protection laws, and many cities have tried to prevent the use of facial recognition technology — although the police sometimes worked around the ban by outsourcing to neighboring law enforcement offices.

就在上个月，蒙大拿州成为第一个关闭所谓的“数据掮客漏洞”的州，限制政府购买人们的私人信息——尽管经过多年的立法努力，这种保护仍然不存在于联邦层面。至少有20个州颁布了全面的消费者数据保护法，许多城市试图阻止面部识别技术的使用——尽管警方有时会通过将这项工作外包给邻近的执法部门来绕开禁令。

The companies getting rich off building a surveillance state aren’t going to announce their intentions. Our lawmakers aren’t going to come out and say that, if their voters don’t notice or care, it’s easier for them to avoid confronting the powerful executives and leaders experimenting with ways to spy on us.

那些靠建立监控国家而发家的公司是不会宣布他们的意图的。我们的立法者也不会站出来说出这些，如果他们的选民不注意或不关心，他们宁可回避与那些试图监视我们的强大高管以及领导人对抗。

Mr. Trump and his tech cronies are charging ahead fast. If we keep sleepwalking into a surveillance state, we may eventually wake up in a place we hardly recognize as our own.

特朗普和他的科技界伙伴们正在快速前进。如果我们继续梦游，走入一种被监视的状态，最终醒来时，或许会发现自己身处一个几乎认不出的陌生国度。

President Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing U.S. embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China’s leaders trying to fathom how he might handle conflict over Taiwan.

特朗普总统先是谴责美国卷入对外战争，之后又决定攻击伊朗的核设施，这给中国领导人带来了另一个复杂因素，他们正试图琢磨特朗普可能会如何处理台湾问题上的冲突。

Chinese officials and experts were already trying to game out Mr. Trump’s approach to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. They will now likely be assessing the Iran strikes for new insights into Mr. Trump, who had opposed military action months earlier while he pursued diplomacy, and then rained missiles and bombs on three key nuclear sites on Sunday.

中国官员和专家本就在试图摸清特朗普对台策略，北京声称这个民主岛屿是其领土。他们现在可能会评估特朗普对伊朗的打击行动，以加深对他的了解。几个月前，特朗普在寻求外交途径的同时反对采取军事行动，而在周日，他又向伊朗三个关键的核设施发射了导弹和炸弹。

For China, Mr. Trump is a bit of a wild card in scenarios of how the United States would respond to Beijing’s efforts to bring Taiwan to heel, including any attempt to take the island by force. The United States has long helped fend off China’s military pressure and deter a possible attack by selling Taiwan weapons and holding out the option that it could send forces if war erupts.

对中国而言，在预测美国如何回应北京迫使台湾就范努力（包括任何以武力夺取台湾的企图）的各种设想中，特朗普有点像一个不确定因素。长期以来，美国通过对台军售以及保留在战争爆发时可能军事介入的选项帮助台湾抵御中国的军事压力，阻止可能发生的攻击。

Some Chinese analysts have questioned whether, with the right cajoling or warnings, Mr. Trump may be persuaded to ease America’s support of Taiwan. After all, in his trade war with China, Mr. Trump veered from imposing sky-high tariffs to agreeing to a provisional truce, basically backing down after China choked off shipments of critical minerals. The Iran strikes further illustrated Mr. Trump’s mercurial style.

一些中国分析人士提出，是否有可能通过适当的劝诱或警告说服特朗普放松美国对台湾的支持。毕竟，在与中国的贸易战中，特朗普从征收天价关税转向同意临时休战，基本上是在中国切断关键矿产的运输后做出了让步。对伊朗的袭击进一步说明了特朗普反复无常的风格。

“After the Iran strikes, I suspect that Chinese leaders will now be more nervous about testing President Trump’s resolve” on Taiwan, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “Caution is warranted, both because Trump appears more willing to use force than many expected, but also because his actions seem less predictable.”

“在伊朗遭到袭击之后，我怀疑中国领导人现在会更加紧张，不敢（在台湾问题上）考验特朗普总统的决心，”美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀说。“谨慎是有必要的，不仅因为特朗普动用武力的意愿超出预期，也因为他的行动似乎不那么容易预测。”

Before the attack, China seemed to have stepped up efforts to sound out Mr. Trump’s thinking on Taiwan.

在这次袭击之前，中国似乎已加大努力探听特朗普在台湾问题上的想法。

中国国家主席习近平3月在北京人民大会堂。他指责台湾政府挑衅对抗、制造冲突。

During a call with Mr. Trump earlier this month, Mr. Xi stressed the importance of Taiwan. He suggested that he and Mr. Trump should be like co-captains steering the “great ship of China-U.S. relations,” in what looked like an attempt to drive a wedge between Mr. Trump and American officials who take a hard line against Beijing.

在本月早些时候与特朗普的通话中，习近平强调了台湾的重要性。他提出，他和特朗普应该像共同船长一样，为“中美关系这艘大船”掌舵，这似乎是试图在特朗普与那些对北京采取强硬立场的美国官员之间制造隔阂。

Beijing calls Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, a separatist, and this week fiercely denounced him for a recent speech in which he laid out his case that Taiwan is an “independent country.” Mr. Xi has accused Mr. Lai’s government of courting “confrontation and even conflict.” Taiwan’s government, and many on both sides of politics in Washington, say that it is China’s menacing behavior that is stoking tensions.

北京称台湾总统赖清德为分裂分子，并在本周对他最近的一次讲话发起猛烈抨击，他在讲话中阐述了台湾是一个“主权独立国家”的立场。习近平指责赖清德政府寻求“冲突对抗”。台湾政府和华盛顿政界两党中的许多人都表示，正是中国的威胁性行为激化了紧张局势。

Some Chinese researchers who recently met American counterparts seemed to be trying to assess Mr. Trump’s red lines. “The Chinese experts I’ve met with have been asking pointed questions about what Trump would do if Beijing took action against Taiwan,” Mr. Cooper said.

最近与美国同行会面的一些中国研究人员似乎在试图评估特朗普的红线在哪里。“我接触过的中国专家一直在问一些尖锐的问题，比如如果北京对台湾采取行动，特朗普会怎么做，”库珀说。

China’s probing has long played out in action. It has stepped up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond, and also trying to wear down the Taiwanese military.

中国的试探早已付诸行动。近年来，中国加强了在台湾周边的军事活动和海警行动，试探台湾和美国及其盟友的反应，同时也试图削弱台湾军队。

That pressure is unlikely to let up. China sends military aircraft near Taiwan nearly every day, sometimes in the dozens. In May, Beijing deployed as many as 70 warships off the eastern coast of China, a senior Taiwanese security official told reporters this month. For the first time, China sent two aircraft carriers and supporting naval ships into the Pacific this month, beyond what is known as the first island chain, which includes the Japanese archipelago and Taiwan, drawing protests from Tokyo.

这种压力不太可能缓解。中国几乎每天都会出动军机靠近台湾，有时多达数十架次。台湾一名高级安全官员本月告诉记者，今年5月，北京在中国东部沿海部署了多达70艘军舰。本月，中国首次派遣两艘航母和护卫舰进入太平洋，越过了包括日本列岛和台湾在内的第一岛链，引发了东京方面的抗议。

去年竞选台湾总统期间，赖清德在台北进行的造势活动。

China wants to be ready for the spectrum of possibilities for Taiwan under Mr. Trump, including “a rapid escalation in tensions or even things slipping out of control,” said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

中国希望为特朗普任期内台湾问题的各种可能性做好准备，包括“紧张的急速升级，甚至失控”，上海复旦大学台湾研究中心主任信强说。

“The issues around Iran and Taiwan are very different, and the range of factors that shape U.S. decision-making are also very different,” Professor Xin said. But he saw a broad lesson in Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran: “This implies that when President Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy.”

“伊朗和台湾问题因为还是差别很大的，影响美国决策的各方面的因素差别也是也是很大的，”信强说。但他从特朗普对伊朗的攻击中看到了一个广泛的教训：“这就意味着特朗普总统还是在他觉得必要的条件之下会选择使用武力来推行美国的外交政策。”

Mr. Trump’s administration has signaled support for Taiwan, while also urging it to rapidly increase military spending. In a speech in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China’s military threat “could be imminent.” But Mr. Hegseth also made clear that Mr. Trump called the shots.

特朗普政府已经释放信号支持台湾，同时也敦促台湾迅速增加军事开支。国防部长海格塞斯在新加坡的一次演讲中警告 称，中国的军事威胁“可能迫在眉睫”。但海格塞斯也明确表示，特朗普才是说了算的人。

That’s what worries some in Washington and Taipei: that Beijing could persuade Mr. Trump to dilute, in actions or just words, U.S. support for Taiwan, which deepened in Mr. Trump’s first term and then under President Biden.

这正是华盛顿和台北的一些人所担心的：北京可能会说服特朗普在行动或言辞上淡化美国对台湾的支持，这种支持在特朗普的第一个任期和后来的拜登政府时期不断加深。

“The administration as a whole seems to be predominantly pursuing continuity” in security support for Taiwan, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. “It’s the president himself that introduces the uncertainty and unpredictability.”

“美国政府作为一个整体似乎主要追求对台湾安全支持的连续性，”华盛顿的德国马歇尔基金会台湾和中国问题专家葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说。“是总统本人带来了不确定性和不可预测性"。

2023年，台湾桃园举行的一场军事演习。

Some experts in Taiwan praised Mr. Trump’s strike on Iran as an indirect message to Beijing. “It’s hitting the little brother, Iran, to warn the big brothers, Russia and China,” said Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

台湾的一些专家称赞特朗普对伊朗的打击，认为这是向北京发出的间接信息。“是打小弟伊朗给大哥俄中看，”政府资助的国防安全研究所研究员欧锡富说。

But when it comes to Taiwan, Mr. Trump, like most recent U.S. presidents, has been deliberately vague about whether the United States would defend the island if China attacked, a position designed to deter Beijing while restraining Taiwan.

但在台湾问题上，特朗普和最近几任美国总统一样，在中国进攻台湾时美国是否会保卫台湾的问题上故意含糊其辞，这一立场旨在威慑北京，同时牵制台湾。

He has also questioned how effective U.S. intervention could be against China’s forces, which are much closer to Taiwan. In his first term, Mr. Trump likened Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie marker and China to the bulky Resolute Desk in the White House, according to John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser.

他还质疑美国的干预面对中国军队究竟有多大效果，因为中国军队离台湾更近。据特朗普的前国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿说，特朗普在第一任期内曾把台湾比作时马克笔的笔尖，而把中国比作白宫里笨重的“坚毅桌”。

And while Mr. Trump has criticized China’s economic practices and its handling of Covid, he has also declared his admiration for Mr. Xi, saying after their latest call that the leaders had invited each other and their spouses to visit.

虽然特朗普曾批评中国的经济行为以及对新冠疫情的处理方式，但也表达了对习近平的钦佩，并在最近一次通话后表示，两国领导人已相互邀请对方携配偶来访。

Should the leaders meet, even seemingly minor concessions in how Mr. Trump’s talks about Taiwan could be a win for Beijing, given the island’s reliance on assurances from Washington, said Amanda Hsiao, the China director for the Eurasia Group, a firm that advises investors.

投资顾问公司欧亚集团的中国事务总监萧嫣然说，如果两位领导人会面，考虑到台湾对华盛顿承诺的依赖，在特朗普谈及台湾时即使做出看似微小的让步，对北京来说也可能是一场胜利。

Still, China’s leaders are also steeled for the risk of a crisis over Taiwan. And they are confident that their military is much more formidable than the weakened Iranian forces that Israeli and U.S. forces overcame, Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told an online briefing this week. China has about 3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a fast-expanding navy.

尽管如此，中国领导人也做好了应对台海危机风险的准备。新美国安全中心高级研究员斯塔西·佩蒂约翰本周在一次线上简报会上表示，中国有信心他们的军队比伊朗军队强大得多，后者被以色列和美国军队击败并遭到削弱。中国拥有大约3500枚导弹，以及不断增长的核武库和快速扩张的海军。

“The U.S. couldn’t just swoop in there with an exquisite capability and launch a limited number of strikes and win,” Ms. Pettyjohn said of a possible conflict over Taiwan. “That is something that would be very clear to Beijing.”

“美国不可能凭借高超的能力迅速介入，发动几次打击就一举取胜，”佩蒂约翰在谈到可能发生的台海冲突时说。“对北京来说，这一点是非常清楚的。”

美国海军一架侦察机在南中国海执行任务，摄于2018年。

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio made their most detailed case yet on Wednesday at a NATO summit in the Netherlands for why they believe the American attack on Iran dealt a fatal blow to its nuclear ambitions, pushing back on the findings of a U.S. intelligence report and more cautious statements from international nuclear inspectors.

特朗普总统和国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周三在荷兰举行的北约峰会上作出了迄今最详尽的阐述，坚称美国对伊朗的打击行动已摧毁了它的核野心，驳斥了美国情报报告和国际核查人员更为谨慎的评估。

While Mr. Trump largely repeated his assertions that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated,” Mr. Rubio stepped in with the first description of why he thought the attack had set back the Iranians’ progress for years rather than by only a few months, as a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency report said. His argument centered on evidence that a “conversion facility” — which is key to converting nuclear fuel from a gas into the form needed to produce a nuclear weapon — has been destroyed.

尽管特朗普基本上是在重复他关于伊朗核设施被“彻底摧毁”的主张，但鲁比奥首次详细说明了他为何认为这次袭击使伊朗的核项目进展倒退了数年，而非国防情报局初步报告所称的仅仅倒退数月。他的论点集中在有证据表明一个“转化设施”已被摧毁，而这个设施是核燃料从气体转化为制造核武器所需形式的关键。

The question of whether Iran could recover from the strike on Sunday morning dominated the meeting of the 32 NATO nations. It overshadowed a major accomplishment for Mr. Trump: an agreement among most of the allies, with the notable exception of Spain, to spend 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense within a decade as they face down Russian military aggression. Mr. Trump had demanded the increase and celebrated the moment, telling reporters during an hourlong news conference, “I began pushing for additional commitments in 2017.”

北约32国此次峰会的焦点集中在伊朗能否从周日凌晨的打击中恢复。这甚至盖过特朗普的一项重大成就：除西班牙这一显著例外，多数成员国同意未来十年将国防支出提升至国内生产总值的5%，以应对俄罗斯的军事威胁。增加国防开支是应特朗普的要求，他在长达一小时的新闻发布会上庆祝了这一时刻，他对记者表示：“我从2017年开始就推动各国作出更多承诺了。”

But his anger over the disclosure of the intelligence report on the effects of the strike against Iran was palpable. Mr. Trump accused news organizations that questioned how much damage had been done to Iran’s program of betraying “these brave patriots, these incredible fliers” who streaked halfway across the globe from Missouri to bomb the prime target, an enrichment plant called Fordo buried deep in a mountain. He and other administration officials repeatedly argued that because the attack had been executed so flawlessly, it was offensive to even question the results.

但显而易见的是，他对打击效果的情报报告遭到泄露感到震怒。特朗普指责那些质疑伊朗核项目受损程度的新闻机构背叛了“这些勇敢的爱国者，这些了不起的飞行员”，他们从密苏里州横跨半个地球，轰炸了主要目标——一个深埋在山中的名为福尔多的铀浓缩工厂。他和其他政府官员一再强调，由于打击行动执行得如此完美，对结果的质疑实属一种冒犯。

Mr. Trump also announced on Wednesday the United States and Iran would hold talks next week, though he provided no details about the participants or the purpose of the engagement. Diplomats from both countries had met repeatedly in recent months to try to negotiate over the future of Iran’s nuclear program, but Iran canceled a round after Israel launched strikes against it on June 13, and the two sides have not met since.

特朗普周三还宣布，美伊将于下周举行会谈，但没有提供参与者或会谈目的等细节。最近几个月，两国的外交官曾多次会晤，试图就伊朗核计划的未来进行谈判，但伊朗在以色列6月13日对其发动袭击后取消了当时的一轮会谈，双方再未会面。

Iran is also threatening to stop cooperating with international inspectors, which would limit visibility into the damage done.

伊朗还威胁停止与国际核查人员合作，这将限制对毁伤情况的直观评估。

Yet, the president also downplayed the importance of a diplomatic agreement with Tehran over its nuclear program, expressing confidence that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon after the U.S. attacks.

然而，总统也淡化了与德黑兰就其核计划达成外交协议的重要性，表示相信在美国袭击后，伊朗不会寻求发展核武器。

“We may sign an agreement,” he said. “I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary. I mean, they had a war they fought. Now they’re going back to their world. I don’t care if I have an agreement or not.”

“协议或许会签，”他说。“我不知道。对我来说，也不是非签不可。我的意思是，他们刚打了一仗。现在要回归正轨了。签不签协议，我根本不在乎。”

Iranian officials had indicated a day earlier that they were willing to re-engage in diplomacy.

而伊朗官员前日表示愿重返谈判桌。

But by the end of his trip to the Netherlands, Mr. Trump seemed as focused on proving he has “obliterated” Iran’s sites as he once was on proving he had the largest inauguration crowd. As part of his effort to counter the preliminary intelligence report from the Pentagon, Mr. Trump, during his news conference, read part of a statement from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission.

但到荷兰之行结束时，特朗普似乎像他曾经执着于证明自己拥有最大规模的就职典礼人群一样，专注于证明他已经“彻底摧毁”了伊朗的核设施。为反驳五角大楼的初步评估报告，他在记者会宣读了以色列原子能委员会声明的一部分。

“The devastating U.S. strike on Fordo destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility totally inoperable,” the president said. The statement, which the White House had distributed earlier, did not contain the word “totally,” but Mr. Trump inserted it.

“美国对福尔多的毁灭性打击摧毁了该基地的关键基础设施，并使浓缩设施完全无法运行，”总统说。白宫此前分发的声明中没有“totally”（完全）这个词，但特朗普自行加了上去。

周二拍摄的伊朗福尔多铀浓缩设施卫星图像。

Administration officials also denied that Iran had moved its stockpile of 880 pounds of near-bomb-grade fuel from storage areas in the ancient city of Isfahan and at other plants in Iran. Some American intelligence officials say they believe it was moved, and Rafael Mariano Grossi, the secretary general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, part of the United Nations, said Iranian officials had told him the stockpile was going to be moved to avoid threats from Mr. Trump. On Wednesday, he said he did not know its whereabouts.

政府官员还否认伊朗已将其储存在古城伊斯法罕和境内其他工厂的约400公斤近武器级核燃料转移，而联合国的国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·马里亚诺·格罗西表示，伊朗官员曾告诉他，为了避免特朗普的威胁，这些库存将被转移。周三，他说他不知道这些库存的下落。

Moving the stockpile could have left Iran with a hidden supply that it could, with further enrichment, use for weapons.

若进行了转移，伊朗或留下了一批库存，经进一步浓缩后用于核武器的制造。

Mr. Trump said he did know where the supply was. “We think we hit them so hard and so fast they didn’t get to move,” he told reporters, without citing any evidence. “It’s covered with granite, concrete and steel,” he said.

特朗普表示，他确实知道这些库存的下落。“我们认为我们的打击又快又猛，他们没有来得及转移，”他对记者说，但没有拿出任何证据。“被埋在花岗岩、混凝土和钢铁下面了，”他说。

Near the end of his news conference, as Mr. Trump appeared to become increasingly fed up with questions about his own administration’s intelligence, he turned the lectern over to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose department’s intelligence agency had produced the assessment. After denouncing the news media, Mr. Hegseth did not dispute the accounts of the intelligence report that appeared in The New York Times and CNN, but emphasized that it had been produced with “low confidence.”

记者会尾声，面对媒体就内阁评估情报的连番提问，越来越不耐烦的特朗普将讲台让予国防部长皮特·海格塞斯，正是其麾下情报机构主导了此次评估。在对媒体痛斥一番后，海格塞斯未反驳《纽约时报》与CNN披露的报告内容，但强调该报告仅属“低置信度”研判。

“So if you want to make an assessment of what happened at Fordo, you better get a big shovel and go really deep because Iran’s nuclear program is obliterated,” he said.

“所以，如果你想评估福尔多发生了什么，你最好拿一把大铲子，得掘地三尺，因为伊朗的核计划已经被彻底摧毁了，”他说。

The director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, also insisted on Wednesday that the president was correct in saying that Iran’s facilities had been destroyed. She cited “new intelligence” but gave no additional details. Like Mr. Hegseth, she complained about news reports describing the intelligence document.

国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德周三也坚称总统关于伊朗设施已被摧毁的说法是正确的。她提到了“新情报”，却没有提供更多细节。像海格塞斯一样，她也对相关新闻报道予以指责。

Mr. Rubio was the only one who approached the question with specific reference to facilities that Israel and the United States hit, and which would cripple Iran’s ability to make a bomb even if it had sufficient highly enriched uranium secreted away. His argument centered on evidence that the conversion facility had been destroyed, along with a laboratory to make the fuel into uranium metal to make a warhead.

只有鲁比奥结合具体打击目标展开了分析：即便伊朗暗藏高浓铀，美以摧毁的核设施已重创其制造核弹的能力。其核心证据指向转化设施以及一个将燃料转化为铀金属以制造弹头的实验室已被摧毁

Israel reported hitting the facility and an associated laboratory for turning the fuel to metal, and The Times described the hit at the time. Independent analysts say they believe the plant was severely damaged.

以色列军方确认击中该转化设施及配套的燃料铀金属转化实验室，《纽约时报》当时也报道了此次打击。独立分析机构判定，该设施遭严重损毁。

China has strengthened controls on two chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl, its latest step in addressing an issue that has become tangled in its broader trade dispute with the United States.

中国加强了对两种可用于制造芬太尼的化学品的管控，这是为解决芬太尼问题采取的最新措施，这个问题已与中美更广泛的贸易争端纠缠在一起。

The Trump administration has accused Beijing of not doing enough to stem the flow of fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, into the United States, where it kills tens of thousands of Americans each year. Earlier this year, the administration cited the issue as it imposed tariffs totaling 20 percent on Chinese goods.

特朗普政府此前指责中国政府没有采取足够措施，阻止芬太尼流入美国。芬太尼是一种强效合成阿片类药物，每年在美国导致数万人死亡。今年早些时候，美国政府以这一问题为由，对中国商品加征了总共20%的关税。

This week, six Chinese government agencies said they had added two chemicals, 4-piperidone and 1-Boc-4-piperidone, to a list of so-called precursor chemicals, or base ingredients, for fentanyl that would be more strictly controlled, according to a joint statement.

据中国六个政府部门本周发布的联合公告，中国已将两种化学品——4-哌啶酮和1-叔丁氧羰基-4-哌啶酮——列入所谓的芬太尼前体（即基本成分）清单，实施严格管制。

The move “demonstrates China’s sincerity in wanting to work with the United States on this issue,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington research institute.

此举“表明了中国在芬太尼问题上想与美国合作的诚意”，华盛顿研究机构史汀生中心的中国项目主任孙韵说。

The new restrictions, which take effect on July 20, were announced days after China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, met with David Perdue, the recently appointed U.S. ambassador to China, in Beijing last week to discuss efforts to fight drug trafficking.

新的管理措施将于7月20日生效。在宣布联合公告的几天前，中国公安部部长王小洪曾于上周在北京与新任美国驻华大使庞德伟(David Perdue)就禁毒执法进行了磋商。

The United States has accused Chinese producers of supplying drug cartels with the ingredients to make fentanyl, which the cartels smuggle into the United States.

美国指责中国的化工企业向贩毒集团提供芬太尼的原料，贩毒集团然后将芬太尼走私到美国。

China has maintained, however, that it is not responsible for America’s fentanyl crisis, which it says is rooted in the abuse of prescription painkillers and ineffective regulation in that country.

但中国则一直强调，美国芬太尼危机的根源在于国内滥用处方止痛药和监管不力，责任不在中国。

“We’ve repeatedly made it clear that fentanyl is the United States' problem, not China’s,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said on Tuesday. “It’s the United States’ responsibility to solve the issue.”

“我们多次表明，芬太尼是美国的问题，不是中国的问题，”中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周二说。“责任在美国自身。”

The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration over fentanyl are still in place, even though overall levies on Chinese goods came down to 55 percent from 145 percent or more in May, after the two countries agreed to a truce in their trade war.

两国同意暂停贸易战后，虽然对所有中国商品加征的最低145%的关税已在今年5月降至55%，但特朗普政府仍在收取与芬太尼问题有关的关税。

Chinese restrictions on its exports of crucial minerals recently threatened to derail that détente, but President Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, agreed to revive trade talks during a call this month. The two leaders also discussed the possibility of meeting in China.

中国前不久对关键矿产的出口实施限制措施，让缓和贸易战的进程受到威胁，但特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平已在本月通了电话，同意重启贸易谈判。两国领导人还讨论了在中国见面的可能性。

Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that China would like to host Mr. Trump, but that it depended on progress made on disputes over trade and issues like fentanyl.

上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯说，虽然中国愿意欢迎特朗普来访，但那取决于两国在贸易争端以及芬太尼等问题上所取得的进展。

Another option, Mr. Wu said, could be for the two leaders to meet on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Seoul, which starts in late October. Mr. Xi usually attends the summit, and American presidents have typically done so, but neither leader has said whether he will participate in this one.

吴心伯表示，另一个可能性是两国领导人在今年10月底在首尔举行亚太经合组织年度峰会期间举行会晤。虽然习近平通常出席峰会，美国总统也历来如此，但两国领导人尚未表态是否参加今年的峰会。

A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran set back the country’s nuclear program by only a few months, according to officials familiar with the findings.

据几名知情官员透露，美国一份初步的机密报告显示，美国对伊朗三处核设施的轰炸仅使该国核计划进度倒退数月。

The strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, the officials said the early findings concluded.

这些官员表示，初步调查结果显示，打击行动封堵了其中两处设施的入口，但未摧毁其地下建筑。

Before the attack, U.S. intelligence agencies had said that if Iran tried to rush to making a bomb, it would take about three months. After the U.S. bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program had been delayed, but by less than six months.

袭击前，美国情报机构曾表示，如果伊朗试图加速制造核弹，大约需要耗时三个月。在美国进行轰炸行动以及以色列空军进行数天打击之后，国防情报局的报告估计，该计划被推迟了，但延迟不到六个月。

The report also said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, which destroyed little of the nuclear material. Iran may have moved some of that to secret locations.

报告还称，伊朗在袭击前已经将大部分的浓缩铀转移，袭击摧毁的核原料极少。伊朗可能已将其中一部分原料转移到了秘密地点。

Some Israeli officials said they also believed that the Iranian government had maintained small covert enrichment facilities so it could continue its nuclear program in the event of an attack on the larger facilities.

一些以色列官员表示，他们也认为伊朗政府还保留着小型的秘密浓缩设施，以便在大型设施遭到攻击后还能继续推进核计划。

Other officials noted that the report found that the three nuclear sites — Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan — had suffered moderate to severe damage, with the facility at Natanz damaged the most. It is not clear whether the Iranians will try to rebuild the programs.

另有官员指出，该报告发现福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕这三处核设施遭受了中度到重度损坏，其中纳坦兹设施受损最严重。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否会尝试重建这些项目。

Former officials said that if Iran tried to quickly develop a bomb, it would be a relatively small and crude device. A miniaturized warhead would be far more difficult to produce, and the extent of damage to that more advanced research is not clear.

前官员表示，如果伊朗想迅速造出一枚核弹的话，那将是一个相对简陋的小装置。小型化弹头的技术难度要大得多，目前尚不清楚这种更先进的研究受到了多大程度的破坏。

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

现任和前任军事官员在袭击前曾警告称，摧毁福尔多设施需要采用多轮打击，对同一地点进行连续数天甚至数周的轰炸，因为它深藏于山体下70多米的深处。

American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute.

美军战机确于周六至少两次击中相同目标。据美国企业研究所中东项目主管布莱恩·卡特透露，B-2轰炸机向福尔多投下12枚GBU-57巨型钻地弹——常被称为“地堡克星”——现场可见六个地面入口弹坑。

But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job.

但多名军事爆破专家认为，完成摧毁需多日的打击行动。

The initial damage assessment suggests that President Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated” was overstated. Congress had been set to be briefed on the strike on Tuesday, and lawmakers were expected to ask about the findings, but the session was postponed. Senators are now set be briefed on Thursday, and House members on Friday.

初步毁伤评估表明，特朗普总统关于伊朗核设施遭“彻底摧毁”的说法言过其实。国会原定于周二听取关于此次袭击的简报，议员们预计会询问调查结果，但简报会因故推迟。参议院现定于周四听取简报，众议院则安排在周五。

Since the strikes, Mr. Trump has complained to advisers repeatedly about news reports that have questioned how much damage was done, said people with knowledge of the comments. He has also closely watched the public statements of other officials when they are asked about the damage to the nuclear facilities, they said.

据知情人士透露，空袭后，特朗普反复向顾问抱怨质疑打击效果的新闻报道。他们表示，总统还密切关注其他官员被问及伊朗核设施毁伤情况时的公开表态。

In a statement on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated Mr. Trump’s early assessment.

周二，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在一份声明中重申了特朗普早前的判断。

“Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” he said. “Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly.”

“根据我们掌握的全部情报——我已经全部看过，轰炸行动彻底摧毁了伊朗制造核武的能力。我们的巨型炸弹精准命中每处目标点，效果完美。”

Officials cautioned that the five-page classified report was only an initial assessment, and that others would follow as more information was collected and as Iran examined the three sites. One official said that the reports people in the administration had been shown were “mixed” but that more assessments were yet to be done.

官员们强调，这份五页的机密报告仅仅是一份初步评估，随着更多信息的收集以及伊朗对这三处地点进行检查，后续还会有更新。一位官员表示，政府内部人士所看到的报告“结论不一”，不过更多评估仍在进行中。

But the Defense Intelligence Agency report indicates that the sites were not damaged as much as some administration officials had hoped, and that Iran retains control of almost all of its nuclear material, meaning if it decides to make a nuclear weapon it might still be able to do so relatively quickly.

但国防情报局的报告指出，这些地点受损程度未达部分政府官员预期，而且伊朗仍留有几乎所有的核材料，这意味着如果它决定制造核武器，仍然能够相对迅速地做到。

Officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity because the findings of the report remain classified.

因报告内容涉密，本文受访官员均要求匿名。

The White House took issue with the assessment. Karoline Leavitt, a White House spokeswoman, said its findings were “flat-out wrong.”

白宫对此评估提出异议。白宫发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，其结论“完全错误”。

“The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” she said in a statement. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

“泄露所谓评估报告显然意在贬低特朗普总统，诋毁执行完美任务摧毁伊朗核计划的英勇飞行员，”她在声明中说。“所有人都知道，当你将14枚3万磅炸弹精确投放到目标上时会发生什么：彻底摧毁。”

Elements of the intelligence report were reported earlier by CNN.

CNN此前已对这份情报报告的部分内容进行了报道。

The strikes badly damaged the electrical system at Fordo, officials said. It is not clear how long it will take Iran to gain access to the underground buildings, repair the electrical systems and reinstall equipment that was moved.

官员们表示，这些打击行动严重损坏了福尔多的电力系统。目前尚不清楚伊朗需要多长时间才能重新进入地下建筑、修复电力系统并重新安装已转移的设备。

Maxar Technologies公司提供的一张福尔多核设施的卫星图像。

There is no question that the bombing campaign “badly, badly damaged” the three sites, Mr. Carter said.

毫无疑问，这次轰炸行动“极其严重地损坏了”这三处设施，卡特说。

But initial Israeli damage assessments have also raised questions about the effectiveness of the strikes. Israeli defense officials said they had also collected evidence that the underground facilities at Fordo were not destroyed.

但以色列初步的评估结果，同样也对打击行动的效果提出了质疑。以国防官员表示，他们收集的证据表明，福尔多地下设施并未被摧毁。

Despite claims of the sites’ obliteration by Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been more careful in describing the attack’s effects.

尽管特朗普和海格塞斯声称这些地点被彻底摧毁，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在描述袭击效果时则相对谨慎。

“This operation was designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure,” General Caine said that at the Sunday news conference.

他在周日记者会上表示：“这次行动旨在严重破坏伊朗的核武器基础设施。”

The final battle damage assessment for the military operation against Iran, General Caine said on Sunday, standing next to Mr. Hegseth, was still to come. He said the initial assessment showed that all three sites “sustained severe damage and destruction.”

凯恩周日站在海格塞斯旁边表示，此次军事行动的毁伤效果尚未做出最终评估。他说，初步评估显示，所有三个地点均遭受“严重破坏和摧毁”。

General Caine added that it was “way too early” to assess how much of Iran’s nuclear program remained.

凯恩还表示，评估伊朗核计划保留下来多少还“为时过早”。

Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former commander of Central Command, said in an interview, that he had “a lot of confidence in the weapons systems used.” But he added: “I’m not surprised that elements survived. That’s why you do battle damage assessments, because everything can go as planned but there are still other factors.”

前中央司令部司令约瑟夫·沃特尔将军受访时表示，他对“所用武器系统非常有信心。”不过，他也说：“有设施得以幸存也不意外。这正是为什么要开展评估的原因，即便一切按计划进行，仍存在其他变量因素。”

At a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Democrats also struck a more cautionary note.

在周二的参议院听证会上，民主党人也持更谨慎的态度。

“We still await final battle damage assessments,” said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee.

罗得岛州参议员、军事委员会的资深民主党人杰克·里德说：“我们仍在等待最终的评估。”

Representatives of the Defense Intelligence Agency did not respond to requests for comment.

国防情报局的代表未回应置评请求。

In recent years, China has towed a decommissioned offshore oil-drilling rig and two giant octagonal steel cages into the sea between China and South Korea, saying that the structures were used as deep-sea fish farms in shared waters. But South Koreans fear that they are more than that and could be used to expand China’s military influence.

最近几年里，中国将一个退役的海上石油钻井平台和两个巨大的八角形钢笼拖到中韩之间的海域，声称这些设施用于在共享水域建深海养鱼场。但韩国人担心用途不止于此，可能被用来扩大中国的军事影响力。

South Korea’s National Assembly formally took issue with the Chinese structures on Monday when its ocean and fisheries committee condemned them as “a threat to maritime safety,” in a resolution adopted with bipartisan support. Those fears were bolstered on Tuesday by a report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

韩国国会周一正式对这些设施提出异议，国会的海洋水产委员会通过了一项得到两党支持的决议，谴责它们“对海上安全构成威胁”。总部设在华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心周二发布的一份报告进一步佐证了这种担忧。

“While available information suggests that the platforms are genuinely focused on aquaculture, concerns that the platforms may be dual-use are not unfounded, given China’s track record in the South China Sea,” said the report, which used satellite imagery and other data to track the installations. Dual-use refers to a second potential use for military purposes.

“虽然现有信息表明这些平台确实主要用于水产养殖，但考虑到中国在南中国海的过往记录，对这些平台可能具有双重用途的担忧并非毫无根据，”该报告写道。报告使用了卫星图像和其他数据来追踪这些设施，双重用途指的是它们具有潜在的军事用途。

“Even without further expansion, the platforms are likely already collecting data that could have value for undersea navigation and detection,” the report said.

“即使不进一步扩大，这些平台也可能已经在收集对海底导航和探测有价值的数据，”该报告写道。

South Koreans see striking parallels between the Chinese installations and what Beijing has done in the South China Sea. China initially built artificial islands there for civilian purposes, but they were gradually transformed into military outposts, leading to territorial disputes with countries including the Philippines and Vietnam.

在韩国人看来，中国的这些设施与它在南中国海的所作所为存在惊人的相似之处。中国在那里先是建了民用的人工岛，后来逐渐将这些岛改造为军事前哨，进而引发了与菲律宾、越南等国的领土争端。

The tensions creeping up around the Chinese platforms in the Yellow Sea — called the West Sea by Koreans — will likely become one of the first challenges faced by the government of President Lee Jae Myung, who took office this month. Mr. Lee has vowed to improve ties with Beijing while at the same time promising to strengthen his country’s alliance with Washington. Mr. Lee hopes to meet China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, in November.

围绕中国在黄海（韩国人称之为西海）平台的紧张局势不断升级，很可能成为本月上任的李在明总统政府所面临的首批挑战。李在明已誓言要改善与中国的关系，同时也承诺加强韩美联盟。李在明希望在今年11月韩国庆州举行亚太经合组织峰会期间与中国最高领导人习近平见面。

When the two countries held talks in April on oceanic cooperation, South Korean officials expressed their “deep concern” about the Chinese structures, warning that they would not allow them to undermine Seoul’s rights, the South Korean Foreign Ministry said. But China insisted that the structures were nothing but deep-sea salmon farms. Both sides agreed to continue dialogue to resolve the dispute.

韩国外交部称，两国曾在今年4月就海洋合作问题举行会谈，韩国官员当时曾对中国的这些设施表示了“深切关注”，并警告，他们不会允许这些设施损害韩国的权利。但中国坚称相关设施只用于深海鲑鱼养殖场。双方同意继续对话以解决争端。

China’s growing assertiveness in the Yellow Sea comes at the same time Beijing has called for bilateral relations with Seoul to reach a “higher level” after Mr. Lee was sworn in as president.

中国在黄海日益强硬的同时，北京方面也呼吁李在明总统上任后让中韩双边关系“向更高水平迈进”。

That reflects Beijing’s carrot and stick approach with its neighbors. On one hand, it hopes to warm ties by offering Seoul economic inducements. On the other, China considers its dominance of regional waters a vital strategic interest, one that it feels it can pursue because of its military strength.

这反映了中国政府对邻国的“胡萝卜加大棒”政策。一方面，中国希望通过向韩国提供经济利益来改善两国关系；另一方面，中国认为本国在东亚水域的主导地位对其战略利益至关重要，中国觉得自己有能力凭借军事实力来追求这个目标。

In recent years, South Korea has become increasingly concerned about China’s military activities near the Korean Peninsula, including a growing number of Chinese warplanes flying near its airspace. In May, China’s newest and most-advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, conducted fighter jet drills in the Yellow Sea. China declared no-sail zones there while the drills were underway.

近年来，韩国已越来越担心中国在朝鲜半岛附近的军事活动，包括中国战机在离韩国领空不远的空域飞行频次越来越高。今年5月，中国最新、最先进的航母福建舰曾在黄海进行战斗机演习。演习期间，中国宣布该水域为禁航区。

“If China uses its structures in the West Sea for military purposes like monitoring, surveillance and disrupting sea routes and does so repeatedly and in an escalating scale, they will eventually threaten our jurisdiction in the West Sea,” said Chung Min-jeong, an analyst at the National Assembly Research Service​. “South Korea, the United States and Japan will need to cooperate if China uses the West Sea structures to help blockade Taiwan.”

“如果中国把它在西海（即黄海）的设施用于军事目的，比如监视、侦察以及扰乱海上航线，而且反复这样做，且规模不断扩大的话，最终将威胁我国在西海的管辖权，”韩国国会研究局的分析师郑珉正（音）说。“如果中国使用这些西海设施帮助封锁台湾的话，韩国、美国和日本将需要彼此合作。”

China installed its aquaculture structures inside the so-called Provisional Measures Zone, or PMZ, which was created by South Korea and China through a bilateral agreement in 2001 to manage their overlapping exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, claims in the Yellow Sea. The agreement allows fishing activities from both sides but does not mention aquaculture, “leaving an ambiguity that will make it difficult for Seoul to convince Beijing to remove the platforms,” according to the C.S.I.S. report.

中国将水产养殖设施部署在所谓的暂定措施水域（简称PMZ）。这是韩中两国在2001年通过一个双边协议设立的，旨在管理双方在黄海主张的专属经济区存在重叠的问题。协议允许两国在该区开展渔业捕捞活动，但没有明确涵盖水产养殖，“这种不明确将使韩国政府难以说服中国政府将这些平台挪走，”战略与国际研究中心的报告写道。

The first floating fish-farm cage — the Shen Lan 1, which is 200 feet in diameter — was installed in 2018, and the larger Shan Lan 2 was added last year. The former oil-drilling rig was moved there in 2022, repurposed into a central operations hub.

直径近60米的第一个浮动鱼塘“深蓝1号”是2018年安装的，去年又安装了一个更大的浮动鱼塘“深蓝2号”。退役的海上石油钻井平台是在2022年拖到那里的，已被改建为一个中央作业枢纽。

Tensions flared in February when a South Korean ocean survey vessel attempted an on-site investigation, only to be forcibly blocked by Chinese coast guard ships and civilian vessels. South Korea also deployed patrol ships in the two-hour standoff.

今年2月，韩国一艘海洋调查船试图进入现场调查时，曾受到中国海警船和民用船只的强行阻挡，导致紧张局势骤然升级。韩国在这次持续了两个小时的对峙中还派出了巡逻船。

In a report this month, South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper cited satellite imagery ​that it said showed China remodeling several retired oil rigs for use as offshore support facilities for fish farms.

韩国的《朝鲜日报》本月曾报道称，卫星图像显示中国正在将几个退役的海上石油钻井平台改造为用于鱼类养殖场的海上辅助设施。

In their resolution adopted on Monday, South Korean lawmakers ​proposed that if China does not remove its facilities, South Korea ​should take “proportional​” countermeasures, such as installing its own aquaculture facilities in the ​area and building a survey ship to increase monitoring of Chinese activities in the sea.

韩国议员在周一通过的决议中提出，如果中国不拆除这些设施的话，韩国应采取“相应”的对等措施，例如在该水域安装自己的水产养殖设施，以及为加强追踪中国在该海域的活动建造一艘调查船。

Standing at the lectern in the White House briefing room on Thursday afternoon, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, read a message she said came “directly from the president.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特上周四下午站在白宫简报室的讲台上宣读了一份她说是“直接来自总统”的声明。

Because of the “substantial chance of negotiations” with Iran that could bring the United States back from the brink of jumping into the war in the Middle East, President Trump’s statement said, he would make a decision about whether or not to strike Iran “within the next two weeks.”

由于存在与伊朗“谈判的很大可能性”，或使美国免于卷入中东战争，总统将“在未来两周里”决定是否对伊朗进行打击。

Mr. Trump had been under pressure from the noninterventionist wing of his party to stay out of the conflict, and was having lunch that day with one of the most outspoken opponents of a bombing campaign, Stephen K. Bannon, fueling speculation that he might hold off.

特朗普一直受到来自共和党内部“不干涉派”让他不要卷入战争的压力。上周四那天，他曾与最直言不讳反对美国轰炸行动的人之一史蒂芬·班农一起共进午餐，引发了人们对特朗普可能会推迟行动的猜测。

It was almost entirely a deception. Mr. Trump had all but made up his mind to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the military preparations were well underway for the complex attack. Less than 30 hours after Ms. Leavitt relayed his statement, he would give the order for an assault that put the United States in the middle of the latest conflict to break out in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

那几乎完全是障眼法。特朗普轰炸伊朗核设施的决心几乎已定，而且军方也已经在为这场复杂的攻击进行充分准备。莱维特转发了特朗普的声明不到30个小时后，特朗普就下令发动打击，让美国卷入了世界上最动荡地区之一最新爆发的一场冲突。

Mr. Trump’s “two weeks” statement was just one aspect of a broader effort at political and military misdirection that took place over eight chaotic days, from the first Israeli strikes against Iran to the moment when a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers took off from Missouri for the first American military strikes inside Iran since that country’s theocratic revolution in 1979.

特朗普的所谓“两周”声明，不过是混乱的八天里（从以色列对伊朗首次发动攻击起，到B-2隐形轰炸机编队从密苏里州升空）更广泛的政治和军事误导行动的冰山一角。这是自1979年伊朗神权革命以来，美国第一次对伊朗境内实施军事打击。

美国上周六向伊朗核设施投掷了炸弹后，记者们在屏幕前观看特朗普总统的全国讲话。

Interviews with administration officials, Trump allies and advisers, Pentagon officials and others familiar with the events show how, during this period, different factions of Mr. Trump’s allies jockeyed to win over a president who was listing in all directions over whether to choose war, diplomacy or some combination.

对政府官员、特朗普的盟友和顾问、五角大楼官员，以及其他知情人士的采访揭示，在这段时间里，特朗普盟友中的不同派系如何运用手段谋取影响总统决策，而此时的他在战争、外交，还是两种手段的某种结合之间犹豫不决。

Outsiders tried to divine which faction was ascendant based on whom Mr. Trump met with at any given time. Mr. Trump seemed almost gleeful in telling reporters that he could make a decision “one second before it’s due, because things change, especially with war.”

局外人试图通过特朗普在某个时间的会晤对象来揣测哪个派系占了上风。特朗普近乎得意地告诉记者，他可以在“到期前的一秒钟”做决定，“因为情况瞬息万变，尤其是战争。”

All the while, Mr. Trump was making blustery statements indicating he was about to take the country into the conflict. “Everyone should evacuate Tehran!” he wrote on Monday last week on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns. The following day, he posted that he had not left a meeting of the Group of 7 in Canada to broker a Middle East cease-fire but for something “much bigger.”

与此同时，特朗普持续发表激烈言论，表示他准备让美国卷入冲突。“所有人都应该撤离德黑兰！”他上周一在自创社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道。次日他接着发帖称，提前离开在加拿大召开的七国集团峰会不是为了促成中东停火，而是为了“更大的事情”。

So, he told the world, “Stay tuned!”

于是，他向全球喊话：“拭目以待！”

These public pronouncements generated angst at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command, where military planners began to worry that Mr. Trump was giving Iran too much warning about an impending strike.

这些公开声明在五角大楼和美国中央司令部引发了焦虑，军事规划人员开始担心，特朗普正在给予伊朗过多即将发动打击的预警。

They built their own deception into the attack plan: a second group of B-2 bombers that would leave Missouri and head west over the Pacific Ocean in a way that flight trackers would be able to monitor on Saturday. That left a misimpression, for many observers and presumably Iran, about the timing and path of the attack, which would come from another direction entirely.

他们把障眼法也放进了打击计划中：上周六，让第二组B-2轰炸机从密苏里起飞后向西穿越太平洋，刻意让飞行追踪器捕捉到航迹。这给许多观察人士、想必也包括伊朗对打击的时间和路径留下了一个错误印象，认为打击会来自一个完全不同的方向。

The strike plan was largely in place when Mr. Trump issued his Thursday statement about how he might take up to two weeks to decide to go to war with Iran. Refueling tankers and fighter jets had been moved into position, and the military was working on providing additional protection for American forces stationed in the region.

特朗普上周四发表关于可能需要最多两周时间来决定是否打击伊朗的声明时，打击计划已基本准备就绪。加油机和战斗机已进入状态，军方正加强中东地区驻军的防护部署。

While the “two weeks” statement bought the president more time for last-minute diplomacy, military officials said that ruse and the head fake with the B-2s also had the effect of cleaning up a mess — the telegraphing of the attack — that was partly of the president’s making.

虽然“两周”的声明为总统进行最后一刻的外交努力赢得了更多时间，但军方官员指出，这个障眼法和B-2轰炸机的假动作也起了清理混乱局面的作用——攻击意图提前泄露，而这在一定程度上也是总统自己造成的。

Asked to comment on the details of this article, Ms. Leavitt said the president and his team “successfully accomplished one of the most complex and historic military operations of all time” regarding Iran’s nuclear sites. She added that “many presidents have talked about this, but only President Trump had the guts to do it.”

当被要求对本文细节置评时，莱维特说，总统及其团队“对伊朗核设施成功实施了史上最复杂、最有历史意义的军事行动之一”。她还补充道，“虽然多位前任总统谈论过这件事，但只有特朗普总统有胆魄付诸行动。”

A Shifting Tune

调子变了

特朗普今年4月在椭圆形办公室会见了以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。

Mr. Trump had spent the early months of his administration warning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel against a strike on Iran. But by the morning of Friday, June 13, hours after the first Israeli attacks, Mr. Trump had changed his tune.

特朗普在执政的头几个月里曾一直警告以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，不要对伊朗发动攻击。但在6月13日的那个周五上午，也就是以色列开始发起攻击数小时后，特朗普改变了态度。

He marveled to advisers about what he said was a brilliant Israeli military operation, which involved a series of precision strikes that killed key figures in Iran’s military leadership and blasted away strategic weapons sites. Mr. Trump took calls on his cellphone from reporters and began hailing the operation as “excellent” and “very successful” and hinting that he had much more to do with it than people realized.

他在顾问们面前大为赞叹以色列的军事行动，称其太棒了，这些军事行动包括一系列精确打击，击毙了伊朗军方领导层关键人物，摧毁了战略武器基地。特朗普用自己的手机接听了记者打来的电话，开始称赞以色列的行动“非常出色”、“非常成功”，并暗示自己发挥的作用远超外界认知。

Later that day, Mr. Trump asked an ally how the Israeli strikes were “playing.” He said that “everyone” was telling him he needed to get more involved, including potentially dropping 30,000-pound GBU-57 bombs on Fordo, the Iranian uranium-enrichment facility buried underneath a mountain south of Tehran.

当天晚些时候，特朗普问了一名盟友以色列的打击“进展如何”。他说“所有人”都对他说，他需要更多地参与进去，包括向位于德黑兰南部福尔多山下的伊朗铀浓缩设施投掷13.6吨重的GBU-57炸弹的可能性。

The next day, the president told another adviser he was leaning toward using those “bunker buster” bombs on Fordo, while taking pride in both the bomb’s destructive power and the fact that the United States is the only country that has the bomb in its arsenal. The adviser left the conversation convinced that Mr. Trump had already decided to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites.

第二天，总统对另一名顾问说，他倾向于对福尔多使用那些“碉堡克星”炸弹，同时为这种炸弹的破坏力以及美国是唯一拥有这种炸弹的国家感到自豪。这次对话让那名顾问对特朗普已做出了轰炸伊朗核设施的决定确信无疑。

At the same time, the president’s team was closely monitoring how their most prominent supporters were reacting on social media and on television to the prospect of the United States joining the war in a more visible way.

与此同时，总统团队密切关注他们最著名的支持者在社交媒体和电视上对美国以更公开的方式参与冲突的前景做何反应。

They paid close attention to the statements of Tucker Carlson, the influential podcaster and former Fox News host, who was vehemently opposed to the United States joining Israel in taking on Iran. Mr. Trump became infuriated by some of Mr. Carlson’s commentary and started complaining about him publicly and privately.

他们密切关注塔克·卡尔森的言论，这名颇有影响力的播客主持和福克斯新闻前主持人强烈反对美国加入以色列打击伊朗的行动。特朗普被卡尔森的一些言论激怒，并开始在公开场合和私下里对他表示不满。

Deliberations among administration officials about a possible American strike on Iran were in full swing by Sunday night, June 15, when Mr. Trump left for Canada for the Group of 7 meeting. Mr. Trump seemed to his advisers to be inching closer to approving a strike, even as he told them that Israel would be foolish to try to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

到特朗普6月15日启程前往加拿大参加七国集团峰会的那个周日的晚间，政府内部就美国打击伊朗的讨论已白热化。在顾问们看来，特朗普似乎正朝着批准打击伊朗行动的方向靠近，尽管他对顾问们说，如果以色列试图暗杀伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的话，那是愚蠢之举。

Moreover, he said, if the United States were to strike Iran, the goal should be to decimate its nuclear facilities, not to bring down its government.

此外，他还说，如果美国要打击伊朗的话，目标应该是摧毁伊朗的核设施，而不是颠覆它的政权。

The ‘Biggest Threat to Opsec’

对行动保密的最大威胁

By then, a small group of top military officials at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command in Tampa had already begun refining attack plans on the Fordo facility and other Iranian nuclear sites that military planners had drawn up years ago.

到那时，五角大楼和坦帕中央司令部的一小群高级军官已开始完善针对福尔多等几处伊朗核设施的打击方案，军事规划人员在数年前就制定了相关方案。

The planning was led by Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the Centcom commander, and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

这项计划由中央司令部司令迈克尔·埃里克·库里拉将军和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军领导。

一架对伊朗核设施完成了打击任务的B-2轰炸机周日返回到密苏里州怀特曼的空军基地。

B-2 stealth bombers, based at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, are the only warplanes capable of delivering the GBU-57 bombs without detection by Iranian radar. B-2 bomber pilots have done extensive rehearsals for extended-range missions like the one before them — crossing the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, refueling multiple times before syncing up with fighter jets for the final flight leg into Iran.

驻扎在密苏里州怀特曼空军基地的B-2隐形轰炸机是唯一能够投掷GBU-57炸弹且不被伊朗雷达侦测的战机。B-2轰炸机飞行员为像这次这样的远程任务进行了充分演练——它们穿越大西洋和地中海，数次空中加油，然后与战斗机协同，完成最后进入伊朗的航程。

But even as the military planning was being conducted in secrecy, each of Mr. Trump’s social media posts seemed to be telling the world what was coming.

然而，尽管军事计划在秘密进行，特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖文似乎都在向世界预告即将发生的事情。

The president, said one military official, was the “biggest threat to opsec,” or operational security, that the planning faced.

一位军官表示，总统是该计划“行动安全的最大威胁”。

Shaping the Conversation

舆论操控

By Tuesday, June 17, Mr. Trump had largely made up his mind to strike Iran. But he took his coercive diplomacy to a new level, issuing menacing threats over social media.

到6月17日周二，特朗普基本敲定要对伊朗动手。但他将胁迫性外交提升到了一个新水平，通过社交媒体放狠话。

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he posted on Truth Social, adding, “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” He demanded, in all-caps, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

“我们现已完全控制了伊朗的上空，”他在Truth Social平台上宣称，还说：“我们精准掌握了所谓‘最高领袖’的藏身地点。他就是个靶子，但他是安全的——我们不会除掉他（杀死！），至少目前不会。”文末以全大写字母强调：“无条件投降！”

By this point, several people in the anti-interventionist camp of Mr. Trump’s advisers realized they most likely could not prevent the president from hitting the Iranian nuclear facilities. So, they turned their focus on trying to ensure the American war did not spiral into an expansive “regime change” war.

此时，特朗普顾问团中的几位反干预派意识到，他们很可能无已法阻止总统攻击伊朗核设施。因此，他们将重心放在努力确保这场美国战争不会升级为一场全面“政权更迭”的战争。

That day, June 17, Vice President JD Vance posted a long series of posts on social media that many within the anti-interventionist camp interpreted as him seeding the ground for a potential U.S. military operation and preemptively defending the president’s likely decision. On Thursday, Mr. Trump was joined for lunch at the White House by Mr. Bannon, one of the most prominent critics of U.S. involvement in Israel’s war with Iran. Some wishful thinkers in the anti-interventionist camp interpreted the meeting as a sign that Mr. Trump was getting cold feet.

当天，即6月17日，副总统JD·万斯在社交媒体上连续发帖，许多反干预派人士对此的解读是，他正在为美国可能的军事行动做铺垫，并预先为总统可能的决定进行辩护。上周四，班农在白宫与特朗普共进午餐，班农是美国介入以伊战争最著名的批评者。反干预阵营中一些抱有幻想的人将这次会面解读为总统临阵退缩的信号。

Ms. Leavitt reinforced that sentiment when she delivered Mr. Trump’s statement, not long after Mr. Bannon arrived at the White House, indicating that he had given himself up to two weeks to make a decision, a time frame he often invoked for decisions on complex issues when he had no clear plan.

班农抵达白宫不久，莱维特便宣读了总统的声明，强化了这种印象。特朗普在声明中说，他给自己两周时间来做决定，他在处理复杂的问题却没有明确计划时，经常声称需要两周时间。

But Mr. Trump had already dictated Ms. Leavitt’s statement before he met with Mr. Bannon. It was a calculated misdirection intended to buy some breathing room for the president while suggesting that no attack was imminent.

但特朗普在与班农会面之前就已经向莱维特口述了声明。这是一种蓄意的误导，旨在为总统争取一些喘息空间，同时暗示攻击并非迫在眉睫。

On Friday, Mr. Trump left the White House in the afternoon for a fund-raising event at his club in Bedminster, N.J., his main summer retreat, further feeding the impression that no attack was imminent.

上周五下午，特朗普离开白宫，前往他在新泽西州贝德明斯特的俱乐部参加一场筹款活动，该俱乐部是他的主要夏季休养地，这进一步强化了攻击并非迫在眉睫的印象。

But within hours, around 5 p.m. on Friday, Mr. Trump ordered the military to begin its Iran mission. Given the 18 hours it would take the B-2s to fly from Missouri to Iran, he knew he still had many more hours to change his mind, as he did at the last minute in 2019, when he ordered airstrikes against Iranian targets and then aborted them.

然而，数小时后，大约在周五下午5点，特朗普命令军方开始伊朗任务。考虑到B-2轰炸机从密苏里飞往伊朗需要18小时，他知道自己还有很多时间可以改变主意，就像他在2019年最后一刻所做的那样，当时他下令对伊朗目标进行空袭然后又取消了。

But few in his administration believed he would pull back this time.

但政府内部几乎无人相信此次他会撤回命令。

举着伊朗国旗和伊朗革命创始人阿亚图拉·霍梅尼（右）、伊朗最高领袖大阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊照片的抗议者们周日在德黑兰。

A One-Off, or Not

只是一次突袭，还是战争的前奏？

A complex and highly synchronized military operation began. Many hours after the two fleets of B-2s took off in opposite directions, the bombers bound for Iran joined up with fighter jets and flew into Iranian airspace.

一场高度协同的复杂军事行动就此展开。两支B-2编队朝相反方向起飞，数小时后，赴伊轰炸机编队与战斗机汇合突入伊朗领空。

American submarines launched 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles on the nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan.

美国潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的核设施发射了30枚战斧式巡航导弹。

As the planes approached Fordo and Natanz, the fighter jets swept in front of the bombers and fired strikes meant to suppress any surface-to-air missiles that Iran might muster, General Caine said in the Pentagon briefing on Sunday.

凯恩在周日的五角大楼简报会上表示，当飞机接近福尔多和纳坦兹时，战斗机飞到轰炸机前方发起打击，旨在压制伊朗任何可能的地对空导弹攻击。

At 2:10 a.m. Sunday morning Iran time, the lead bomber dropped two of the GBU-57 bombs on the Fordo site, buried deep under a mountainside and hundreds of feet of concrete. By the end of the mission, 14 of the “bunker buster” bombs had been dropped, the first time they had ever been used in combat.

伊朗时间周日凌晨2点10分，领头的轰炸机向福尔多设施投下了两枚GBU-57炸弹，该设施深埋于山体下数百英尺的混凝土中。任务最终共投下了14枚“碉堡克星”炸弹，这是它们首次在实战中使用。

Pentagon officials said Sunday that the American bombers and jet fighters never encountered any enemy fire.

五角大楼官员周日表示，美国战机未遭遇任何火力拦截。

Hours after the American aircraft had departed Iranian airspace, Mr. Trump gave a triumphant speech at the White House saying that the mission had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He suggested that the war could end with this one-off mission if Iran would give up its nuclear program and negotiate.

在美国飞机离开伊朗领空数小时后，特朗普在白宫发表了胜利讲话，称此次任务“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核能力。他暗示，如果伊朗放弃核计划并进行谈判，这场战争就可以通过这次一次性任务而结束。

By Sunday afternoon, however, American officials had tempered the optimism of the night before, saying that Iran’s nuclear facilities might have been severely damaged, but not entirely destroyed.

然而，到上周日下午，美国官员降低了前一晚的乐观情绪，称伊朗的核设施或遭重创，但并未完全摧毁。

Mr. Vance acknowledged that there are questions about the whereabouts of Iran’s stock of near-bomb-grade uranium. He and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that a regime change in Tehran — which could mean a protracted U.S. engagement — was not the goal.

万斯副总统坦言，伊朗近武器级铀储备的下落存疑。他与国务卿鲁比奥均强调，目标并非颠覆德黑兰政权，后者可能意味着美国卷入长期战争。

But Mr. Trump, whose operation was the subject of praise in news coverage not just from allies but some of his critics, had already moved on, hinting in a Truth Social post that his goals could be shifting.

特朗普的行动在媒体上赢得了盟友乃至部分批评者的赞誉，但他已经转向了新的焦点。他在Truth Social平台上发帖做出了暗示。

“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’” he wrote, “but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???”

“用‘政权更迭’这个词是政治上不正确的，”他写道，“但如果伊朗现政权做不到‘让伊朗再次伟大’，为什么不能有政权的更迭呢？？？”

麦克萨科技公司提供的卫星图像显示，美国的打击给伊朗福尔多的铀浓缩设施造成了破坏。

Update: Iranian state television announced a cease-fire with Israel early Tuesday.

最新消息：伊朗国家电视台于周二凌晨宣布与以色列停火。

Iran fired missiles at a major United States military base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the American attack on three Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend. But President Trump, saying that Iran had given advance warning of the strike, immediately thanked Tehran for exercising restraint and said it was “time for peace.”

周一，伊朗向美国在卡塔尔的一个主要军事基地发射导弹，以报复美国上周末对伊朗三处核设施的袭击。但特朗普总统表示，伊朗提前发出了袭击的警告，他立即感谢德黑兰保持克制，并表示现在“是和平的时候了”。

Later, he announced on social media that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease-fire after more than a week of tit-for-tat missile strikes and a weekend attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by American bombers and cruise missiles.

随后，他在社交媒体上宣布，在超过一周针锋相对的导弹袭击，以及美国轰炸机和巡航导弹在周末对伊朗核设施的袭击之后，以色列和伊朗已同意停火。

There was no immediate confirmation of a truce from Israel or Iran.

以伊双方均未立即确认停火。

Iran launched 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, but they caused no casualties, 13 were intercepted, and one was allowed to land because, Mr. Trump said, it was headed in a “nonthreatening direction.” The strike’s limited scale raised hopes that the Middle East region could avoid a wider conflagration.

伊朗周一向卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发射了14枚导弹，但没有造成人员伤亡，其中13枚被拦截，还有一枚未被拦截，特朗普说，因为它飞向了“不构成威胁的方向”。此次空袭的规模有限，让人们认为中东地区有望避免更大范围冲突。

Mr. Trump, who appeared to be looking for an off-ramp from the conflict, described Iran’s barrage in a series of social media posts as “a very weak response” and said he hoped “they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system.’”

特朗普似乎正在寻找摆脱这场冲突的方式，他在一系列社交媒体帖子中称伊朗的密集攻击是“非常微弱的回应”，并表示他希望“他们已经发泄完了情绪”。

“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice,” he added, “which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”

“我要感谢伊朗提前通知我们，”他还说，“这使得没有人丧生，没有人受伤。也许伊朗现在可以着手实现该地区的和平与和谐，我将热情地鼓励以色列也这样做。”

Writing in all-caps, he ended his posts: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”

他用大写字母结尾：“祝贺世界，是和平的时候了！”

The Iranian strike came after the United States sent a squadron of B-2 stealth bombers on Sunday to unleash 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear site, Fordo, which is buried in the side of a mountain. The United States also used American submarines to launch 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. American officials said the attack severely damaged, but did not destroy, the Iranian nuclear sites.

在伊朗发动袭击之前，美国于周日派出了一个B-2隐形轰炸机中队，向伊朗戒备森严、埋藏在山体里的福尔多核设施发射了约13.6吨重的“地堡炸弹”。美国还用潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的核设施发射了30枚战斧巡航导弹。美国官员表示，这次袭击严重破坏了伊朗的核设施，但未将其完全摧毁。

As the world braced for the Iranian response, citizens in the region were warned to shelter in place. Qatar announced that it had closed its airspace before the missiles flew. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates did the same after the attack. The closures disrupted flights into and out of Doha and Dubai, two major hubs of international air travel.

全世界都在为伊朗的反应做准备，该地区的民众被警告就地避难。卡塔尔宣布，在导弹发射前，它就已经关闭了领空。袭击发生后，巴林、伊拉克、科威特和阿拉伯联合酋长国也采取了同样的行动。机场关闭扰乱了进出多哈和迪拜这两个主要国际航空枢纽的航班。

A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, Majed Al Ansari, called Iran’s strike a “flagrant violation” of Qatar’s sovereignty. Qatar and the United States said their forces had shot down the Iranian missiles.

卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里称伊朗的袭击是对卡塔尔主权的“公然侵犯”。卡塔尔和美国表示，他们的军队击落了伊朗的导弹。

周一，德黑兰街头一辆被烧毁的救护车。

The Pentagon said there were no reports of casualties after Al Udeid Air Base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles. It is the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the forward headquarters for the U.S. Central Command. It has 10,000 military and civilian personnel and is equipped with air defenses that had been on high alert in anticipation of the Iranian attack.

五角大楼表示，乌代德空军基地遭到短程和中程弹道导弹袭击后，没有人员伤亡报告。它是美国在中东最大的军事设施，也是美国中央司令部的前沿总部。它拥有1万名军事和文职人员，并配有防空系统，为应对伊朗可能的袭击，这些系统进入了高度戒备的状态。

Three Iranian officials familiar with Tehran’s plans confirmed that Iran had given advance notice of the attack — as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said that Iran needed to strike back at the United States but also wanted to allow both sides a possible off ramp.

三名了解德黑兰计划的伊朗官员证实，伊朗在袭击前发出了预警，以尽量减少伤亡。这些官员们表示，伊朗需要对美国进行反击，但也希望给双方留出可能的退路。

They described the strategy as similar to one Iran used in 2020 when it gave Iraq a heads up before firing ballistic missiles at two American bases in Iraq in the wake of the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top military commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani.

他们称，这一战略与伊朗在2020年使用的战略类似，当时在美国暗杀伊朗最高军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将之后，伊朗在向伊拉克的两个美国基地发射弹道导弹之前，也曾向伊拉克发出了预警。

An Israeli official also said that Iran had given a warning, though the official did not say through which channel or which country. The Israeli and Iranian officials all spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

一名以色列官员也证实，伊朗发出了警告，但该官员没有说明是通过哪个渠道或哪个国家发出的。由于讨论的是敏感的情报，以色列和伊朗官员都要求匿名。

Even though Iranian officials described the strike as calibrated to limit casualties, it had stoked fears that it could draw the United States further into a conflict that could ripple across the region.

尽管伊朗官员称这次袭击是为了限制伤亡，但仍引发外界担忧，它可能会把美国进一步拖入一场可能波及整个地区的冲突。

周一，卡塔尔多哈上空的拦截导弹。

Video verified by The New York Times and filmed from the Pearl Island, a man-made island in Doha, Qatar’s capital, appears to show about a half-dozen missile interceptors flying across the sky to shoot down incoming Iranian missiles on Monday.

经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，周一在卡塔尔首都多哈的人造岛屿珍珠岛拍摄的画面中，大约六枚导弹拦截器飞过天空，击落来袭的伊朗导弹。

Three residents of Doha said they heard what they believed to be several interceptions of missiles in the distance. Loud booms were heard, and lights were visible as they streaked upward, apparently part of a missile-defense system. Some objects were seen falling to earth.

多哈的三名居民表示，他们听见远处疑似发生多次导弹拦截的动静。巨响传来，可以看到向上飞去的灯光，显然是导弹防御系统的一部分。有人看到一些物体坠落地面。

World leaders had urged all sides to de-escalate the conflict.

世界各国领导人敦促各方缓和冲突。

“I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said on social media Monday. “The spiral of chaos must end.”

“我呼吁各方保持最大限度的克制，缓和局势，回到谈判桌，”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙周一在社交媒体上表示。“混乱的漩涡必须结束。”

周日，以色列内斯齐奥纳，伊朗导弹袭击现场的应急人员。

The volleys of missile and drone attacks began earlier this month, when Israel started bombing Iran in order, it said, to eliminate the threat from Iran’s ballistic missiles and wipe out its nuclear program. Mr. Trump then ordered the United States to join the conflict with the strikes on Sunday.

本月早些时候，以色列对伊朗发起了导弹和无人机攻击，宣称旨在消除伊朗弹道导弹威胁并摧毁核计划。特朗普则于周日下令美军加入冲突实施打击。

Mr. Trump later pronounced the mission a “spectacular” success, saying the United States had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. But the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, gave a more measured description of the mission’s results, saying an initial assessment showed the three nuclear sites had suffered “severe damage.”

特朗普后来宣布这次任务取得了“惊人”的成功，称美国“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核设施。但参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将对这次任务的结果给出了更为慎重的描述，称初步评估显示，这三个核设施遭受了“严重破坏”。

Senior U.S. officials later conceded they did not know the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material.

美国高级官员后来承认，他们未能掌握伊朗储存的接近核弹级别的核材料的下落。

Before the Iranian missile strike, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met in Russia on Monday with President Vladimir V. Putin, a key ally of Tehran. Mr. Putin denounced the American attack on the Iranian nuclear sites as “unfounded and unjustified” but stopped short of offering concrete support.

在伊朗发动导弹袭击之前，该国外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周一在俄罗斯会见了德黑兰的重要盟友普京总统。普京谴责美国对伊朗核设施的袭击是“毫无根据和不合理的”，但没有提供具体的支持。

俄罗斯国家媒体发布的照片显示，总统普京和其他官员周一在克里姆林宫会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇（前排右一）。

With hopes for diplomacy appearing to dim, the Israeli military continued to pound Iran on Monday, with strikes targeting structures that belong to the Iranian government, according to the office of Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz.

以色列国防部长伊斯雷尔·卡茨的办公室称，由于通过外交手段解决问题的希望似乎很渺茫，以色列军方周一继续打击伊朗，袭击目标是属于伊朗政府的建筑。

The office said the Israeli strikes had targeted Evin prison, on a hilltop in northern Tehran, where hundreds of dissidents and political prisoners are held, along with the headquarters of the Basij, a volunteer force under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that has cracked down on protests in Iran.

该办公室称，以色列的袭击目标包括德黑兰北部山顶的埃温监狱，那里关押着数百名异见者和政治犯，还有巴斯基总部，巴斯基是伊斯兰革命卫队旗下的志愿部队，它一直在镇压伊朗的抗议活动。

Evin prison has long been regarded as a symbol of repression, and rights groups and former prisoners say people are routinely tortured and executed there.

埃温监狱长期以来被视为镇压的象征，人权组织和前囚犯说，人们经常在那里受到酷刑折磨和处决。

China said the United States has hurt its reputation as a global power and its diplomatic standing by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities while it was engaged in talks with Tehran.

中国说，美国在与伊朗政府谈判期间打击伊朗的核设施损害了美国作为一个全球大国的声誉和外交名声。

“Iran is harmed, but also harmed is U.S. credibility — as a country and as a party to any international negotiations,” Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, told China’s state broadcaster on Sunday.

“伊朗受到了伤害，但同样受损的，还有美国自身的信誉——无论是作为一个国家，还是作为任何国际谈判的参与方，”中国常驻联合国代表傅聪周日在中国的国家电视台上说。

In the battle for global narratives, China has long cast the United States as a warmonger and a destabilizing power while presenting itself as a responsible global leader championing peace and fairness.

在争夺全球叙事话语权的战斗中，中国长期以来一直将美国描绘为战争贩子和破坏稳定的力量，同时将自己表现为倡导和平与公正的负责任的全球领导者。

At an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Sunday, Mr. Fu said that China condemned the U.S. strikes and was joining Russia and Pakistan in drafting a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire, the safety of civilians and a start to peace negotiations.

傅聪在联合国安理会周日举行的紧急会议上说，中国谴责美国对伊朗核设施的打击，正在与俄罗斯和巴基斯坦一道起草一项联合国决议，呼吁停火，保护平民安全，启动和平谈判。

The criticism of the United States was echoed in Chinese state media reports on Monday, with the official news agency, Xinhua, accusing the United States of escalating violence in the region.

中国官媒周一发的报道呼应了傅聪对美国的批评，官方通讯社新华社指责美国加剧了中东地区的暴力冲突。

“The worsening situation in the Middle East is a stark reminder that power politics and military interventions lead to nothing but chaos and instability,” the article said.

“中东局势的恶化清楚地提醒我们，强权政治和军事干预只会带来混乱和不稳定，”文章称。

In a separate editorial on Monday, the Communist Party tabloid, the Global Times, said the U.S. strikes had weakened “the foundation of the international security order.”

中共小报《环球时报》在周一的一篇社评中说，美国打击伊朗核设施削弱了“国际安全秩序的基础”。

On China’s heavily censored internet forums, users have left furious comments about how Iran was deceived into thinking it was negotiating a nuclear agreement with the United States, only to lower its guard and become the target of U.S. bombs.

在中国受到严格审查的互联网论坛上，用户们留下了愤怒评论，称伊朗被骗了，以为自己正在与美国进行核协议的谈判，放松了警惕，结果成为美国轰炸的目标。

China’s rhetoric belies a more complicated reality. Beijing has been one of Tehran’s biggest backers, diplomatically and economically. Its purchases of almost all of Iran’s oil exports have helped a brutal Iranian regime stay in power and deliver support to its terrorist proxies abroad, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

中国的这些说法掩盖了一个更为复杂的现实。中国一直是伊朗最重要的外交和经济支持者之一。它几乎包揽了伊朗所有的出口石油，这帮助维系了残暴的伊朗政权继续掌权，并为伊朗在海外的恐怖主义代理（包括哈马斯、真主党、胡塞武装分子）提供支持。

It remains to be seen how China might use its influence over Iran as fears of a broader conflict grow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to persuade Tehran not to make good on a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital waterways for the transport of oil.

随着对更广泛冲突的担忧加剧，中国将如何使用自己对伊朗的影响力还有待观察。美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周日敦促中国劝说伊朗，不要执行封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁，这是世界上最重要的石油运输水道之一。

“China will certainly oppose Iran” closing the strait, said Wang Yiwei, the director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing, because of China’s need for access to Iranian oil. But it would only do so on its terms and in its own time, he suggested.

“中国肯定会反对伊朗”封锁霍尔木兹海峡，中国人民大学国际问题研究所所长王义桅说，因为中国需要得到伊朗的石油。但中国只会按照自己的条件和自己的时间表来那样做，他暗示。

“However, it would be improper, or even counterproductive, to discuss this with the United States, or to exert pressure on Iran at the request of the United States,” he added.

“但是，与美国讨论这件事，或按照美国的要求向伊朗施压不合适，甚至会适得其反，”他补充道。

When asked on Monday what China would do if Iran closed the strait, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, deflected and called on the international community to “step up its efforts to promote the de-escalation of the conflict.”

在周一的例行记者会上，有记者问外交部发言人郭嘉昆，如果伊朗封锁海峡，中国将采取什么措施时，他避而不答，只是呼吁国际社会“加大努力，推动冲突降级”。

Since the 1980s, more than 800 million Chinese have risen out of poverty. China’s middle class expanded from virtually no one to about 400 million. Villagers moved to cities. Tens of millions of people became the first in their families to attend college.

自20世纪80年代以来，超过8亿中国人摆脱了贫困。中国的中产阶级从几乎没有，扩大到大约4亿人。村民们搬到了城市。数以千万计的人成为家中第一个上大学的人。

Today, China’s economic growth has slowed. As wages stagnate and jobs disappear, the promise of upward social mobility is eroding, especially for those from modest backgrounds.

今天，中国的经济增长已经放缓。随着工资停滞不前，工作岗位逐渐消失，社会向上流动的希望正在破灭，尤其是对那些出身普通的人来说。

For many people like Boris Gao, the Chinese Dream no longer feels achievable.

对许多像鲍里斯·高（音）这样的人来说，中国梦已经遥不可及。

After Mr. Gao’s parents were laid off from their jobs at state-owned factories, his father drove a taxi and his mother stayed home. The family struggled to make ends meet. To save money, his mother canceled a text message service from his school, causing him to miss notifications of homework and school activities.

他的父母从国有工厂下岗后，父亲开出租车，母亲留在家里。一家人的生活捉襟见肘。为了省钱，母亲取消了学校的短信服务，导致他错过了家庭作业和学校活动的通知。

But Mr. Gao was exceptionally driven. After graduating from college in 2016, he worked hard, saved aggressively and attended a graduate program in Hong Kong. Since 2024, his job hunt has been an ordeal. One company asked him to work with no pay during a trial period. He quit a job after not being paid for two months. Another company rejected him because he was educated outside mainland China, making him politically unreliable, he was told.

但是鲍里斯·高特别努力。2016年大学毕业后，他勤奋工作，积极存钱，在香港读了研究生。自2024年以来，他的求职一波三折。一家公司要求他在试用期无偿工作。因为两个月未领到工资，他辞掉了另一份工作。还有一家公司拒绝他，是因为他在中国大陆以外接受教育，这使得他在政治上不可靠。

In one interview, he was asked about his parents’ professions, which is not unusual in China. “Your family has low social status,” Mr. Gao was told and did not get the job.

在一次面试中，他被问及父母的职业，这在中国并不罕见。“你的家庭社会地位很低，”鲍里斯·高被告知，并且没有得到这份工作。

“To them, perseverance is a defect,” he said. “If you have to struggle, it means you’re not good enough.”

“对他们来说，坚持不懈是一种缺陷，”他说。“如果你必须拼命奋斗，那就意味着你不够好。”

Anxiety over inequality is growing in China. Children of privilege inherit not only wealth but also prestigious jobs and powerful connections. Children of laborers and farmers, no matter how driven or well educated, often struggle to break through.

在中国，对不平等的焦虑正在加剧。特权家庭的子女不仅继承财富，还继承了有声望的工作和强大的关系网。而劳工和农民的孩子，无论多么努力或受过多么良好的教育，往往难以取得突破。

北京的大学生。在中国，对不平等的担忧与日俱增，因为即使受过教育也不一定能找到一份稳定的工作。

It’s a dynamic that would feel familiar to many in the United States and some other developed nations. But in China, the stakes are higher. The average standard of living is lower, and the social safety net is far more fragile.

这种情况，对于美国和其他一些发达国家的许多人来说都很熟悉。但在中国意味着更严重的后果。人们的平均生活水平更低，社会保障体系也更加脆弱。

The disillusionment is being captured sarcastically online. One buzzword is “Pindie,” a biting term for nepotism that means “competing through one’s father.” Another is “county Brahmins,” which lampoons small-town elites who gain status by monopolizing connections and jobs.

网络上以一种讽刺的方式捕捉到了这种幻灭感。其中一个流行语是“拼爹”， 这是一个对裙带关系的尖刻说法，意思是“靠父亲来竞争”。另一个流行语是“县城婆罗门”，讽刺那些通过垄断关系和工作获得地位的小镇精英。

The discontent over privilege boiled over recently when a trainee doctor in the center of an extramarital affair with a doctor appeared to have questionable credentials. People noted that her father led a big state-owned enterprise and that her mother was a senior official at a university. After an investigation, her medical license was revoked.

最近，一位与医生发生婚外情的实习医生被怀疑资质有问题，对特权的不满情绪随之爆发。人们注意到，她的父亲领导着一家大型国有企业，她的母亲是一所大学的高级官员。经过调查，她的行医执照被吊销。

The online debate fueled outrage that family ties, not merit, are what advance careers in China today.

网上的争论激起了人们的愤怒，认为在今天的中国，家庭关系，而不是价值，才是晋升的关键。

“At a time when competition for quality education is fierce and jobs are hard to find after graduation, fairness is not just a moral imperative,” wrote Hu Xijin, the retired editor of the official Global Times tabloid. “It is essential to maintaining social stability.”

“在当前优质教育资源竞争激烈，毕业后工作难找的情况下，公平尤其是实现社会情绪平稳的关键事项，”官方小报《环球时报》退休主编胡锡进写道。

To understand this shift, I put out a call for Chinese people to write to me about their experiences in trying to move up from working-class backgrounds. All the responses I received were from men. I interviewed five of them, all between the ages of 25 and 49. They asked that I use only their family names or their English names because they feared government retribution.

为了理解这种转变，我呼吁中国人给我写信，告诉我他们从工人阶级出身努力向上发展的经历。我收到的所有回复都来自男性。我采访了其中的五位，年龄在25岁到49岁之间。由于担心政府的报复，他们要求我只使用他们的姓氏或英文名。

无论多么有抱负，工人和农民的子女在向上流动时往往都会面临巨大的障碍。

The two oldest in the group did not go to college but rode China’s wave of growth that took off at the start of the century. They are now worried they will slip back to where they started.

这群人中年龄最大的两位没有上过大学，但却搭上了本世纪初中国经济增长的便车。他们现在担心自己会倒退，回到起点。

One of those two, who asked that I use only his surname, Zhao, dropped out of high school and became a coal miner. For three years, he worked eight-hour shifts in dark, freezing mine shafts. Then he moved to Beijing to pursue acting and worked briefly as a film extra.

其中一位要求我只透露他姓赵，他高中辍学后成了一名煤矿工人。三年来，他在黑暗、冰冷的矿井里轮班工作，每班工作八小时。后来他搬到北京从事表演工作，做过一段时间的电影临时演员。

In 2014, China’s housing market was booming. Mr. Zhao started working in real estate. His $700 monthly pay matched what he had made as a miner, but, he said, “I could see the sun and live a normal life.”

2014年，中国房地产市场蓬勃发展。赵先生开始从事房地产工作。他每月约5000元的工资与他当矿工时的相当，但他说，“我可以看到太阳，过上正常的生活。”

In 2017, he became a mortgage broker, and his pay increased several fold. One month in 2020, he earned $15,000. He married and bought a car.

2017年，他成了一名抵押贷款经纪人，工资增加了几倍。2020年的一个月，他赚了约10万元。他结婚了，还买了车。

Then the housing market collapsed. He has had no income for the past year. He has considered returning to the mines, but the thought of that dark world repelled him. Now Mr. Zhao, 38, and his wife live on her $500 monthly salary. Children are out of the question.

接着，房地产市场崩溃了。他去年没有任何收入。他曾考虑过回到矿上，但一想到那个黑暗的世界，他就感到厌恶。现在，38岁的赵先生和妻子靠她每月3500元的工资生活。要孩子是不可能的。

“I’m stuck in limbo,” he said. “The better life is out of reach, and I can’t fall low enough to start over. I have no idea what I should be doing.”

“我进退两难，”他说。“更好的生活遥不可及，我又不能落到重新开始的地步。我不知道我该做什么。”

The three younger men I interviewed, born in the 1990s, called themselves “small-town test-taking experts.” That is slang used to describe strivers who believed education would lift them up, only to find they were shut out of elite networks and stuck in dead-end jobs.

我采访的三位90后年轻人自称是“小镇做题家”。这是一个俗语，用来形容那些相信教育能提升地位的奋斗者，结果，他们却发现自己被精英网络拒之门外，从事着没有前途的工作。

The three men grew up in rural and working-class homes and rose above their parents’ social class through hard work and by attending universities. But they all learned it would be hard to fully escape their socioeconomic backgrounds.

这三个人在农村和工人阶级家庭长大，通过努力工作和上大学而超越了父母的社会阶层。但他们都知道，要完全摆脱自己的社会经济背景是很难的。

Two of them had to give up spots at leading foreign schools, one at Columbia University and the other at the London School of Economics, because of the cost.

其中两名学生因为学费问题，不得不放弃了外国名校的入学资格，一个人放弃了哥伦比亚大学，另一个人放弃了伦敦政治经济学院。

All three recalled that, when they were growing up, their parents had paid little attention to their education.

他们三个人都回忆说，在他们成长的过程中，父母很少关注他们的教育。

对一些中国学生来说，教育让他们看到了不平等。

Their experiences with education were the opposite of those of children in many of China’s upper-middle-class families. Those parents pushed their children into math and computer classes, and piano lessons and English tutoring. They are driven by the fear of letting their children “lose at the starting line.” These families may have more in common with their American peers than with China’s working class.

他们的教育经历与中国许多中上层家庭的孩子截然相反。这些父母强迫孩子去上数学和计算机课，钢琴课和英语辅导。他们害怕孩子“输在起跑线上”。与中国的工人阶级相比，这些家庭与美国同阶层家庭的共同点可能更多。

For the three small-town strivers I interviewed, their educations opened their eyes to inequality.

对于我采访的三位小镇做题家来说，他们所受的教育让他们看到了不平等。

One of them, Gary Liang, said most of the parents of classmates at his elementary school had worked at factories. When he was in high school, most parents were professionals. One student had a foreign English-language tutor.

其中一位名叫加里·梁（音）的学生说，他小学同学的父母大多在工厂工作。到他上中学的时候，大多数同学的父母都是白领。一个同学在家有英语外教。

The contrast was even more jarring when Mr. Liang entered a prestigious university in central China. The father of one of his roommates was a local-level Communist Party secretary; another roommate’s father was a university dean.

当加里·梁进入中国中部的一所名牌大学时，这种反差更加强烈。他的一个室友的父亲是地方党委书记；另一个室友的父亲是一所大学的院长。

While his roommates dined out, Mr. Liang got by on food from the university canteen and tutored high school students to earn some cash. At the time, he did not understand why his roommates spent so much time networking at school.

当室友去吃馆子的时候，加里·梁靠大学食堂勉强度日，给高中生当家教赚点外快。当时，他不明白室友们为什么要花那么多时间，在学校里建立关系网。

“It’s very unfair,” said Mr. Liang, who is now pursuing a Ph.D. in Japan. “You put in so much effort, and then you realize that some things are just a lot easier for other people, or not nearly as hard for them.”

“这很不公平，”正在日本攻读博士学位的梁先生说。“你付出了如此多的努力，然后你意识到有些事情对其他人来说要容易得多，或者对他们来说没有那么难。”

中国广州一家制衣厂的夜班。

One sought-after path to move up in China runs through state-owned enterprises, which can offer elite, stable jobs. But landing one can require the right connections.

在中国，进入国有企业是炙手可热的晋升之路，国企可以提供稳定的精英职位。但要实现这一目标，可能需要合适的关系。

Josh Tang, a STEM graduate from a rural background, wanted to change his career from the grueling work culture of the tech industry. His father, a manual laborer who had once owned a small business, asked village relatives to help his son land a job at a bank. Mr. Tang submitted two applications but didn’t get an interview.

约西·唐（音）是一名农村出身的理科毕业生，他想改变自己的职业生涯，摆脱科技行业艰苦的工作文化。他的父亲是一名体力劳动者，曾经开过一家小公司，他请村里的亲戚帮儿子在银行找到一份工作。约西·唐提交了两份申请，但都没有得到面试机会。

When the economy was better, jobs at state-owned enterprises occasionally trickled down to people with his family background, said Mr. Tang, who went back to work in tech. But now, he added, “they’re viewed as the safest bets, so they circulate within the same class.”

后来又回到科技行业工作的约西·唐说，当经济好转时，国有企业的工作偶尔会流向他这种家庭背景的人，但现在，他说，“它们被视为最安全的选择，所以它们在同一个阶层中流动。”

“They’re hoarded, not shared,” he said.

“它们被囤积起来，不对外分享，”他说。

Over the past two decades, the United States has used sanctions, sabotage, cyberattacks and diplomatic negotiations to try to slow what looked to most of the world like Iran’s long march to a nuclear weapon.

过去20年里，美国一直在使用制裁、破坏行动、网络攻击和外交谈判等手段，试图延缓伊朗在多数世人眼中迈向核武器的漫长进程。

At roughly 2:30 a.m. Sunday in Iran, President Trump unleashed a show of raw military might that each of his last four predecessors had deliberately avoided, for fear of plunging the United States into war in the Middle East.

周日凌晨2点30分左右，特朗普总统发动了一场其四位前任因担心将美国拖入中东战火而刻意回避的赤裸裸的武力展示。

After days of declaring that he could not take the risk that the mullahs and generals of Tehran who had survived Israel’s strikes would make a final leap to a nuclear weapon, he ordered a fleet of B-2 bombers halfway around the world to drop the most powerful conventional bombs on the most critical sites in Iran’s vast nuclear complexes.

几天来，他一直宣称，他不能冒险放任那些在以色列袭击中幸存下来的德黑兰毛拉和将军们完成最后一次飞跃，达到拥有核武器的地步。在此之后，他命令B-2轰炸机编队跨越大半个地球，向伊朗庞大的核设施中最关键的地点投下威力最大的常规炸弹。

The prime target was the deeply buried enrichment center at Fordo, which Israel was incapable of reaching.

首要目标是深埋在福尔多的浓缩中心，那里超出了以色列的打击能力。

For Mr. Trump, the decision to attack the nuclear infrastructure of a hostile nation represents the biggest — and potentially most dangerous — gamble of his second term.

对特朗普来说，决定攻击敌对国家的核基础设施是他第二个任期内最大的赌博，也可能是最危险的赌博。

He is betting that the United States can repel whatever retaliation Iran’s leadership orders against more than 40,000 American troops spread over bases throughout the region. All are within range of Tehran’s missile fleet, even after eight days of relentless attacks by Israel. And he is betting that he can deter a vastly debilitated Iran from using its familiar techniques — terrorism, hostage-taking and cyberattacks — as a more indirect line of attack to wreak revenge.

他赌的是无论伊朗领导人下令对驻扎在中东各处的4万多名美国驻军采取何种报复行动，美国都能将其击退。这些基地都在德黑兰导弹群的射程之内，即使是在以色列进行了八天持续攻击之后。他更是在赌美国可以阻止元气大伤的伊朗使用惯用手段——恐怖主义、劫持人质和网络攻击这类间接方式实施报复。

Most importantly, he is betting that he has destroyed Iran’s chances of ever reconstituting its nuclear program. That is an ambitious goal: Iran has made clear that, if attacked, it would exit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and take its vast program underground. That is why Mr. Trump focused so much attention on destroying Fordo, the facility Iran built in secret that was publicly exposed by President Barack Obama in 2009. That is where Iran was producing almost all of the near-bomb-grade fuel that most alarmed the United States and its allies.

最重要的是，他在赌自己已经摧毁了伊朗重建核计划的机会。这是一个雄心勃勃的目标：伊朗已经明确表示，如果受到攻击，它将退出《核不扩散条约》，并将其庞大的核项目转入地下。这就是为什么特朗普如此关注摧毁伊朗秘密建造的福尔多设施，该设施在2009年被奥巴马总统公开曝光。伊朗此前在此生产令美国及其盟友极度恐慌的近武器级核燃料。

Mr. Trump’s aides were telling those allies on Saturday night that Washington’s sole mission was to destroy the nuclear program. They described the complex strike as a limited, contained operation akin to the special operation that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.

周六晚上，特朗普的助手告诉这些盟友，华盛顿的唯一任务就是摧毁核计划。他们称这次复杂的打击是一次有限的可控行动，类似于2011年击毙奥萨马·本·拉登的特别行动。

“They explicitly said this was not a declaration of war,” one senior European diplomat said late Saturday, describing his conversation with a high-ranking administration official.

“他们明确表示，这不是宣战，”一名欧洲高级外交官周六晚间在描述他与一名美国政府高级官员的谈话时说。

But, the diplomat added, bin Laden had killed 3,000 Americans. Iran had yet to build a bomb.

但是，这位外交官补充说，本·拉登杀死了3000名美国人。伊朗还没有造出核弹。

In short, the administration is arguing that it was engaged in an act of pre-emption, seeking to terminate a threat, not the Iranian regime. But it is far from clear that the Iranians will perceive it that way. In a brief address from the White House on Saturday night, flanked by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Mr. Trump threatened Iran with more destruction if it does not bend to his demands.

简而言之，政府辩称此举属先发制人，旨在消除威胁而非推翻伊朗政权。但伊朗人是否会这么认为还远不清楚。周六晚上，在副总统万斯、国务卿鲁比奥和国防部长海格塞斯的陪同下，特朗普在白宫发表了简短讲话。他威胁称，如果伊朗不屈服于他的要求，将会遭遇更猛烈的打击。

“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,” he said. “If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.”

“伊朗，中东的恶霸，现在必须实现和平，”他说。“如果他们不这样做，未来的袭击规模将大得多，也容易得多。”

“There will be either peace,” he added, “or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.” He promised that if Iran did not relent, he would go after them “with precision, speed and skill.”

“要么是和平，”他补充说，“要么伊朗会面临比我们在过去八天所目睹的更大的悲剧。记住，还有很多目标。”他承诺，如果伊朗不松口，他将“以精确、迅速和技巧”打击他们。

In essence, Mr. Trump was threatening to broaden his military partnership with Israel, which has spent the last eight days systematically targeting Iran’s top military and nuclear leadership, killing them in their beds, their laboratories and their bunkers. The United States initially separated itself from that operation. In the Trump administration’s first public statement about those strikes, Mr. Rubio emphasized that Israel took “unilateral action against Iran,” adding that the United States was “not involved.”

从本质上讲，特朗普是在威胁扩大与以色列的军事伙伴关系。过去八天里，以色列系统性地定点清除了伊朗的最高军事与核计划负责人，将他们杀死在床上、实验室和掩体中。美国最初与该行动划清界限。在特朗普政府就这些袭击发表的首次公开声明中，鲁比奥强调，以色列“对伊朗采取了单方面行动”，并补充说，美国“没有参与”。

But then, a few days ago, Mr. Trump mused on his social media platform about the ability of the United States to kill Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, anytime he wanted. And Saturday night, he made clear that the United States was all in, and that contrary to Mr. Rubio’s statement, the country was now deeply involved.

但几天前，特朗普在自己的社交媒体平台上若有所思地表示，美国有能力随时杀死伊朗86岁的最高领袖哈梅内伊。周六晚上，他明确表示，美国已经全力以赴，而且与鲁比奥的声明相反，美国现在已经深度参与其中。

Now, having set back Iran’s enrichment capability, Mr. Trump is clearly hoping that he can seize on a remarkable moment of weakness — the weakness that allowed the American B-2 bombers to fly in and out of Iranian territory with little resistance.

现在，在挫败了伊朗的铀浓缩能力之后，特朗普显然希望能抓住一个罕见的虚弱时刻——正是藉于此，美国B-2轰炸机得以在伊朗领土上几乎不受任何阻力地进出。

After Israel’s fierce retaliation for the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attacks that killed over a thousand Israeli civilians, Iran is suddenly bereft of its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Its closest ally, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, had to flee the country. And Russia and China, which formed a partnership of convenience with Iran, were nowhere to be seen after Israel attacked the country.

在以色列对2023年10月7日造成1000多名以色列平民死亡的恐怖袭击进行激烈报复之后，伊朗突然失去了哈马斯和真主党这两大代理人。它最亲密的盟友、叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德不得不流亡海外。而与伊朗结成权宜伙伴关系的俄罗斯和中国，在以色列袭击伊朗后也不见踪影。

That left only the nuclear program as Iran’s ultimate defense. It was always more than just a scientific project — it was the symbol of Iranian resistance to the West, and the core of the leadership’s plan to hold on to power.

伊朗的最终防御手段只剩下核计划。它绝不仅仅是一个科研项目——它是伊朗抵抗西方的象征，也是领导层巩固政权计划的核心。

Along with the repression of dissent, the program had become the ultimate means of defense for the inheritors of the Iranian revolution that began in 1979. If the taking of 52 American hostages was Iran’s way of standing up to a far larger, far more powerful adversary in 1979, the nuclear program has been the symbol of resistance for the last two decades.

伴随着对异见的镇压，该计划已成为1979年开始的伊朗革命继承者的终极防御手段。如果说1979年劫持52名美国人质是伊朗对抗一个体量更大、实力更强的对手的方式，那么在过去20年里，核计划一直是抵抗精神的象征。

One day historians may well draw a line from those images of blindfolded Americans, who were held for 444 days, to the dropping of GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs on the mountainous redoubt called Fordo. They will probably ask whether the United States, its allies or the Iranians themselves could have played this differently.

有一天，历史学家很可能会把那些被蒙住眼睛关押了444天的美国人的画面，与投向山间堡垒福尔多的GBU-57钻地弹联系起来。他们可能会问，美国及其盟友，或伊朗人自己，是否可以采取不同的做法处理这些事件。

And they will almost certainly ask whether Mr. Trump’s gamble paid off.

他们几乎肯定会问，特朗普的赌博是否得到了回报。

His critics in Congress were already questioning his approach. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said Mr. Trump had acted “without consulting Congress, without a clear strategy, without regard to the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community” that Iran had made no decision to take the final steps to a bomb.

他在国会的批评者已经开始质疑他的做法。情报委员会民主党领袖、弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·华纳表示，特朗普的行动“没有征求国会的意见，没有制定明确的战略，没有考虑情报界的一致结论”——情报界的结论是，伊朗尚未决定迈出制造核弹的最后一步。

If Iran finds itself unable to respond effectively, if the ayatollah’s hold on power is now loosened, or if the country gives up its long-running nuclear ambitions, Mr. Trump will doubtless claim that only he was willing to use America’s military reach to achieve a goal his last four predecessors deemed too risky.

如果伊朗发现无法做出有效回应，如果阿亚图拉对权力的控制现在放松了，或者如果伊朗放弃了长期以来的核野心，特朗普无疑会声称，只有他愿意利用美国的军事力量来实现他的前四位前任认为过于冒险的目标。

But there is another possibility. Iran could slowly recover, its surviving nuclear scientists could take their skills underground and the country could follow the pathway lit by North Korea, with a race to build a bomb. Today, North Korea has 60 or more nuclear weapons by some intelligence estimates, an arsenal that probably makes it too powerful to attack.

但是还有另一种可能。伊朗可能会慢慢恢复，其幸存的核科学家可能会把他们的技能转入地下，这个国家可能会走上朝鲜开辟的道路，加速制造核弹。如今，据一些情报机构估计，朝鲜拥有60件或更多的核武器，这个核武库很可能已强大到无法被攻击。

That, Iran may conclude, is the only pathway to keep larger, hostile powers at bay, and to prevent the United States and Israel from carrying out an operation like the one that lit up the Iranian skies on Sunday morning.

伊朗可能会得出这样的结论：这是牵制更大的敌对势力，防止美国和以色列采取类似周日早上照亮伊朗天空行动的唯一途径。

The U.S. strikes on nuclear sites in Iran are an extraordinary turn for a military that was supposed to be moving on from two decades of forever wars in the Middle East, and they put the United States back on war footing.

美国打击伊朗核设施的做法标志着一个极不寻常的转折，美军本应从长达20年的中东无休止战争中抽身，但这一举动却让美国再次准备在那里打仗。

Across the region, where more than 40,000 American troops are on bases and warships, the strikes ushered in a period of high alert as the Pentagon braced for almost-certain retaliation from Iran.

中东地区的基地和军舰上部署了逾4万名美军。这次打击行动让他们进入高度戒备状态，因为五角大楼已为伊朗几乎必将采取的报复行动做好准备。

President Trump announced on social media that three Iranian sites were hit, including the mountain facility at Fordo. The bombs used in the strikes are believed to include “bunker busters,” which are designed to destroy deep underground bunkers or well-buried weapons in highly protected facilities.

特朗普总统在社交媒体上宣布，美军打击了伊朗的三个核设施，包括位于福尔多山体下的的设施。打击使用的炸弹据说包括“碉堡克星”，这种炸弹是为摧毁深地掩体或被高度保护的地下武器设施设计的。

A U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence said that multiple 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Fordo, and that initial damage assessments indicated that the facility had been “taken off the table.” The attack was the first time the U.S. military had used the weapon in combat.

一名为了方便讨论涉密情报而要求不具名的美国官员说，美军对福尔多的核设施投下了多枚重达15吨的碉堡克星炸弹，初步的破坏评估表明，福尔多核设施已被“完全摧毁”。这次打击是美军首次在实战中使用这种炸弹。

The strikes, whether successful or not, are likely to trigger a fierce response. Tehran has vowed to strike at American bases in the Middle East, and American intelligence agencies confirmed before the strikes took place that Iran would take steps to widen the war and hit U.S. forces in the region.

无论此次打击是否成功，都可能引发激烈报复。伊朗政府已誓言要打击美国在中东的军事基地。美国情报机构在这次打击发生前就已确认，伊朗会采取步骤扩大战争，攻击位于该地区的美军部队。

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence, said the strikes against the three nuclear sites were complete. The official said no follow-up attacks were expected, although commanders were ready to respond to any Iranian retaliation.

因为讨论的是情报而要求不具名的多名美国官员说，打击这三个核设施的行动已经完成。前述官员表示，虽然预计不会有后续打击，但指挥官们已为回应伊朗的任何报复行动做好准备。

A U.S. official said that six B-2 bombers dropped 12 bunker-buster bombs on Fordo, and Navy submarines fired 30 cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan. One B-2 also dropped two bunker-buster bombs on Natanz, the official said. The strikes are the culmination of years of planning by U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the region. But few thought those plans would be carried out so suddenly. They came more than a week after Israel launched attacks on Iran.

一名美国官员说，六架B-2轰炸机向福尔多核设施投下了12枚碉堡克星炸弹，海军潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕发射了30枚巡航导弹。该官员还表示，一架B-2轰炸机也向纳坦兹投下了两枚枚碉堡克星炸弹。美国中央司令部负责中东地区的行动，这次打击是该司令部多年筹划的最终实施。但几乎没有人预料到这些计划会如此突然地执行。美国的打击发生在以色列对伊朗发动攻击一周多后。

Iran responded with missile barrages of its own, as well as offers to resume negotiations over its nuclear development program.

伊朗用导弹回击了以色列的行动，也提出了重启有关其核研发计划的谈判。

Iran built the centrifuge facility at Fordo to prevent it from being attacked. In 1981, using F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Israel bombed a nuclear facility near Baghdad as part of its effort to stop Iraq from acquiring nuclear weapons — a strike that basically stopped Iraq’s weapons program. That facility was above ground.

伊朗在福尔多建造离心机设施是为了防止遭受打击。以色列曾在1981年使用F-15和F-16战斗机轰炸了巴格达附近的一处地面核设施，作为阻止伊拉克获得核武器努力的一部分，那次打击基本上摧毁了伊拉克的核武器计划。

In its strikes on Iran, Israel has hit aboveground nuclear sites, but not Fordo. Only the United States has the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator — the formal name for the bomb needed to reach the site. Previous American administrations have refused to give the bomb to Israel. Israel’s Air Force also does not have the warplanes needed to carry it.

以色列在这次行动中也打击了伊朗的地面核设施，但未触及福尔多。只有美国拥有GBU-57巨型钻地弹（能打击福尔多设施的炸弹的正式名称）。美国的前几届政府一直拒绝把这种炸弹提供给以色列。以色列空军也没有能运载这种炸弹所需的战机。

The bombs have thick steel cases and contain a smaller amount of explosives than similarly sized general-purpose bombs. The heavy casings allow the munition to stay intact as it punches through soil, rock or concrete before detonating.

这种炸弹具有加厚钢外壳，其装药量低于同等体积的常规炸弹。重型外壳让炸弹在穿过土壤、岩石或混凝土直至引爆前完好无损。

Iran has many ways to retaliate, including naval assets and other capabilities it would need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could pin any U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, American military officials say. Iranian officials have threatened to mine the strait if the United States joined Israel’s attack on the country.

美国军方官员指出，伊朗有许多报复的手段，包括动用海军力量和其他能力封锁霍尔木兹海峡，此举可能使美国在波斯湾的海军舰艇不能动弹。伊朗官员已威胁说，如果美国加入到以色列打击伊朗的行动中来，他们将在霍尔木兹海峡布雷。

The narrow 90-mile waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean is a key shipping route. A quarter of the world’s oil and 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas passes through it. Mining the choke point would cause gas prices to soar.

这条连接波斯湾和外海的狭窄水道长约150公里，是一条重要的货运航道。全球25%的石油和20%的液化天然气经此运输。在这个咽喉要地布雷将导致天然气价格飙升。

Earlier this week, American minesweepers and other Navy vessels began dispersing to avoid attack.

本周早些时候，美国的扫雷舰和其他海军舰艇已开始分散部署，以避免被袭。

In his first term, Mr. Trump authorized a drone strike that killed a powerful Iranian general in Baghdad. Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles fired at American troops in Iraq, leaving some 110 troops with traumatic brain injuries and unintentionally hitting a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people aboard.

特朗普上次担任总统期间曾授权了一次无人机空袭，打死了一名在巴格达访问的伊朗高级将领。作为报复，伊朗向驻伊拉克美军发射了大量导弹，给约110名美军士兵留下了脑外伤，并意外击中了一架乌克兰客机，导致机上176人全部遇难。

Iran would not need much preparation to attack U.S. air and naval bases in the region. The Iranian military has missile bases within easy striking range of Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

伊朗不需要做太多准备就能打击中东地区的美国空军和海军基地。伊朗军队的导弹基地打击范围轻松涵盖巴林、卡塔尔以及阿联酋。

Indeed, American officials said earlier this week that Iran had prepared missiles and other military equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the region.

其实，美国官员本周早些时候就已表示，伊朗早已为打击中东地区的美国基地做好了导弹和其他军事设施准备。

Anticipating such an attack, American forces in recent days have been fortifying air defenses. On Saturday, American officials said that additional U.S. Air Force F-22, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets from the United States had transited bases in Europe and were positioned in the Middle East, with more coming.

为了应对此类攻击，美军已在最近几天加强了空中防御。美国官员已在周六表示，美国空军从本土增派的F-22、F-16、F-35战机经欧洲基地中转，已部署到了中东，还有更多的战斗机要去那里。

The United States has already sent about three dozen refueling aircraft to Europe that could be used to assist those fighters in protecting American bases.

美国已将近40架加油机派往欧洲，它们可为那些战斗机提供支援以保护美军基地。

In addition, the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, with 60 aircraft aboard, including F-35 fighter jets, is currently steaming in the Arabian Sea. A second carrier, the Nimitz, canceled a port call in Vietnam earlier this week to rush to the region, and is expected to arrive in the next few days, U.S. officials said.

此外，“卡尔·文森”号航空母舰目前正在阿拉伯海快速行驶，该航母载有包括F-35战斗机在内的60架飞机。美国官员说，另一艘航空母舰“尼米兹”号已在本周早些时候取消了在越南港口的停靠，正在赶往中东地区，预计将在未来几天到达。