When President Xi Jinping presided over an enormous exhibit of China’s military might in Beijing on Wednesday, there were more than fighter jets and missiles on display.

当习近平主席上周三主持一场展示中国强大军力的盛大阅兵时，亮相的不仅仅是战斗机和导弹。

Mr. Xi, flanked by the leaders of Russia, Iran and North Korea, was signaling to the world that a viable alternative to U.S. leadership exists. That China, in alignment with these other states, could upend the existing international order and resist the current system’s chief architect, the United States.

在俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜领导人的簇拥下，习近平向世界释发出了信号：美国的领导地位已有可行的替代之选。中国与这些国家结盟，可以颠覆现有的国际秩序，对抗该体系的主要设计者——美国。

The show of unity may have seemed remarkable to some, given that just over two months ago some observers dismissed the understanding between the four — what we have called the “axis of upheaval” — as either dead or overblown from the beginning. In June Russia, China and North Korea had more or less stood by as Iran endured 12 days of punishing war at the hands of Israel and the United States, issuing statements condemning the attacks but little else.

对一些人来说，这种团结秀可能显得非同寻常，因为就在两个多月前，一些观察人士还认为这四个国家之间的共识——我们称之为“动荡轴心”——要么已经瓦解，要么从一开始就被夸大了。6月，当伊朗遭受以色列和美国长达12天的严厉军事打击时，俄罗斯、中国和朝鲜或多或少采取了袖手旁观的态度，除了发表声明谴责攻击外，鲜见其他行动。

But to dismiss the axis on these terms is to misunderstand what it truly is: an alignment of four countries that, despite vast differences, see a common adversary in the United States. Though they may occasionally come to one another’s aid — like the North Korean soldiers who joined their Russian allies in battle against Ukrainian forces — that is not the point. The group has a much more ambitious objective. It seeks, like the World War II era Axis Powers of Germany, Italy and Japan, “a new order of things,” in which each country can claim “its own proper place.” Discontented with an international system they believe denies them the status and freedom of action they deserve by virtue of their power and civilizations, they are united in the desire to change it.

但若以此来否定这一轴心，就误解了它的本质：这是四个尽管存在巨大差异，但都与美国为敌的国家形成的结盟关系。它们偶尔会相互援助，比如朝鲜军人和盟友俄罗斯一道，与乌克兰军队作战，但这并非它们结盟的重点。这个集团有更宏大的目标。就像“二战”时期的德意日轴心国一样，它追求的是“一种新秩序”，让每个国家都能获得“应有的地位”。它们对现行的国际体系不满，认为这个体系剥夺了他们以自身实力和文明程度本应享有的地位和行动自由，因此它们要联合起来，希望改变这个体系。

Already, cooperation among the four has strengthened the military capabilities of America’s adversaries while weakening the foreign policy tools that Washington can wield to confront them. Nowhere has their impact been more apparent than in Ukraine, where China, Iran and North Korea have enabled the Kremlin to sustain its war and better withstand international pressure. The axis countries are likely to continue to cultivate their economic and technological ties to improve their ability to bypass U.S. and allied sanctions and export controls while offering third countries alternatives to dependence on America’s market, banks and currency.

四国之间的合作已经增强了美国对手的军事实力，同时削弱了华盛顿可以用来对抗它们的外交政策工具。这一点在乌克兰战争中表现得最为明显，中国、伊朗和朝鲜使克里姆林宫能够维持战争，并更好地承受了国际压力。这些轴心国可能会继续培养它们的经济和技术联系，以提高绕过美国及盟友制裁和出口管制的能力，同时为第三国提供替代选择，减少对美国市场、银行和货币的依赖。

It is the military impact of the ties between them that is bound to be most consequential. These countries are sharing military technology and know-how in ways that allow them to narrow America’s military edge. Their cooperation could shorten the time it would take Russia to reconstitute its conventional forces in any pause in the war in Ukraine, by supplying ammunition or the component parts Moscow needs to manufacture more weapons faster. This could create a window of vulnerability for NATO if Russia can rebuild faster than Europe can ramp up its capabilities. Axis cooperation also complicates the picture for U.S. and allied defense planners who can no longer assume that any one of these countries would fight alone, either because one or more of these countries provides military aid and weapons or, less likely, fighters. And there is also a risk that they could initiate concurrent crises in an explicitly coordinated or opportunistic manner, overstretching U.S. bandwidth and capabilities.

最为深远的则是它们之间的军事联系产生的影响。这些国家通过共享军事技术与专业知识，不断削弱美国的军事优势。通过提供弹药或莫斯科制造更多武器所需的零部件，它们的合作可能缩短俄罗斯在乌克兰战争暂停期间重建常规部队所需的时间。如果俄罗斯的军力速度超过欧洲提升自身能力的速度，这可能给北约造成一个脆弱的窗口期。这些轴心国之间的合作也使美国及其盟友的防御规划变得更加复杂，后者不能再假设这些国家会单打独斗，因为其中一个或多个国家可能会提供军事援助和武器，甚至派遣战斗人员——尽管可能性较小。此外，还存在一种风险，即四国可能以明确协调或抓住机会同时挑起多场危机，从而让美国的应对能力不堪重负。

Indeed, the gathering in Beijing suggests that the axis, rather than withering following the war in Iran in June, has momentum. Its members sense an opportunity. The Trump administration is riling America’s longtime allies and partners, closing off access to its market, withdrawing humanitarian aid and development assistance, ceasing international broadcasting and democracy support, and explicitly declining to play its longtime global leadership role. For Mr. Xi, Vladimir Putin of Russia and others, there may never be a better moment to challenge the U.S.-led global system and hasten American retrenchment.

此次北京会晤恰恰表明，这个轴心非但未因6月伊朗境内的战事受挫，反而呈现扩张态势。其成员国看到了机会。特朗普政府正在激怒美国的长期盟友和伙伴，关闭市场准入，撤回人道主义援助和发展支持，停止国际广播以及对民主的支持，更公开放弃长期担当的全球领导角色。对习近平、俄罗斯的普京等人来说，或许再没有比现在更好的时机来挑战美国主导的全球体系，并加速美国的收缩了。

That President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran was included in the gathering certainly suggests it is too soon to assume Iran is sidelined. Although it was weakened by the U.S. and Israeli strikes, China, Russia and North Korea are likely to see value in helping Iran to reconstitute its capacity to antagonize the United States.

伊朗总统佩泽什基安此次获邀与会，这充分说明现在就断言伊朗遭边缘化为时过早。尽管伊朗因美国和以色列的打击被削弱，中俄朝三国仍看重助其恢复反美能力的战略价值。

The Trump administration is well aware of the challenge the axis poses. Its solution, so far, has been one that aims to improve relations with Russia under the assumption that by doing so, it can draw Moscow away from its other backers. Ending the war in Ukraine in a way that allows for a better relationship with Russia would seem to be their first step.

特朗普政府非常清楚这个轴心所带来的挑战。迄今为止，特朗普政府的解决方案是试图改善与俄罗斯的关系，假设通过这样做可以拉拢莫斯科，使其疏远其他支持者。以实现美俄关系改善的方式结束乌克兰战争，这似乎是设想的第一步。

But another attempt to reset relations with Russia is not only bound to fail — as it has before — but also exacerbate the problem. The Kremlin will not abandon its view of Washington as the key impediment to Moscow’s aims, and Mr. Putin is unlikely to believe that a single U.S. president can undo, in any long-term way, decades of U.S. foreign policy toward Russia.

但再次尝试重启与俄罗斯的关系注定会失败——正如以往一样——而且只会让问题恶化。克里姆林宫绝不会放弃将华盛顿视为莫斯科实现目标的主要障碍这一立场，而且普京也不太可能相信，一个美国总统能从长远层面改变美国数十年来的对俄外交政策。

Efforts to lure China are likely to be similarly futile. Certainly, the administration’s attempt to get to a trade deal with Beijing by handing out geopolitical concessions — for example, allowing advanced A.I. chips to go to China — is unlikely to succeed in pulling the axis’ most powerful member away from its partners. Russia and China are likely to simply pocket the concessions this administration is willing to make and use them to strengthen their ability to challenge the United States.

试图拉拢中国的努力可能同样是徒劳的。显然，政府通过做出地缘政治方面的让步——例如允许向中国销售先进的人工智能芯片——来达成与北京的贸易协议，这不太可能成功地离间这个轴心中最强大的成员，使其与其他成员分道扬镳。俄罗斯和中国很可能会欣然接受特朗普政府愿意做出的让步，并利用这些让步增强挑战美国的能力。

The good news is that Washington does have the necessary tools at its disposal to overcome the axis. The American economy is the world’s largest and most attractive. Its alliance system is still unparalleled, its network of overseas bases unmatched and its military might enormous. American values — of democracy, basic rights and dignity, and of opportunity and equality — are a supreme strength, more so when we embrace them at home. America, if it chooses to, can sustain a global order that is far superior to anything the axis has to offer. The question is whether the Trump administration will choose to do so.

好消息是，华盛顿确实拥有战胜这个轴心国所需的必要手段。美国有着世界上最大、最具吸引力的经济。它的联盟体系仍然无与伦比，海外基地网络无人能及，军事实力依然强大。美国的价值观——民主、基本权利与尊严、机会与平等——是一大优势，若能在国内真正予以践行，其力量将更为强大。如果美国选择这样做，它能够维持一个远超轴心国所能提供的全球秩序。问题在于，特朗普政府是否会选择这样做。

At the Capitol in January, India’s foreign minister was seated in the front row for President Trump’s inauguration, a sign of the deepening ties that a generation of American presidents have attempted to forge with the world’s most populous nation.

今年1月，在国会大厦举行的特朗普总统就职典礼上，印度外交部长坐在第一排，这表明历届美国总统努力与这个世界上人口最多的国家建立的关系还在加深。

Now, just months later, Mr. Trump is publicly lamenting that India has abandoned him for the embrace of China, Washington’s strategic rival.

现在，仅仅几个月后，特朗普就公开哀叹印度抛弃了他，转而投向华盛顿的战略对手中国的怀抱。

“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday morning, as he posted a photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The three leaders met in China earlier this week.

“看来我们已经把印度和俄罗斯都输给了最深邃、最黑暗的中国，”特朗普周五早上在Truth Social社交平台写道，配图是印度总理莫迪、俄罗斯总统普京与中国国家主席习近平的合影。这三位领导人上周早些时候在中国举行了会晤。

“May they have a long and prosperous future together!” he wrote.

他写道：“愿他们共同拥有一个长久而繁荣的未来！”

It was a rare acknowledgment that Mr. Trump’s attempts at blunt-force diplomacy, not to mention punishing tariffs, were having some unintended consequences. The uneasy partnership to create an alternative to the West’s global leadership that began with China and Russia, then expanded to North Korea and Iran, may now be about to incorporate — at least episodically — India, the world’s largest democracy.

这罕见地承认了特朗普粗暴的外交手段——更不用说惩罚性关税——正引发某些意外后果。这种最初由中俄启动，然后扩展到朝鲜和伊朗的脆弱伙伴关系旨在创造西方全球领导地位的替代品，现在可能即将吸纳世界上最大的民主国家印度——至少是阶段性的。

It is too early to predict whether Mr. Modi’s visit to China, the first in seven years, marks a real shift or just a warning shot to Washington. During the Cold War, India led the nonaligned movement, and it is skilled at playing superpowers off against each other. This may be one of those moments.

莫迪七年来首次访问中国，这标志着真正的转变，抑或只是向华盛顿发出警告，目前作出预测还为时过早。在冷战期间，印度领导了不结盟运动，而且它擅长让超级大国相互对抗。目前可能又是这样的时刻。

Later on Friday, Mr. Trump tried to downplay his rift with India.

周五晚些时候，特朗普试图淡化他与印度的分歧。

“I’ll always be friends with Modi. He’s great,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I just don’t like what he’s doing at this particular moment. But India and the United States have a special relationship. There’s nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion.”

“我永远是莫迪的朋友。他很棒，”特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者说。“我只是不喜欢他在此刻的某些做法。但是印度和美国有着特殊的关系。没什么好担心的。我们只是偶尔会有这样的摩擦。”

Devashish Mitra, a professor of economics at Syracuse University, said that Mr. Trump’s oscillating statements about India underscore the country’s concerns about its relationship with the United States.

雪城大学经济学教授德瓦什·米特拉表示，特朗普关于印度反复无常的声明令印度对印美关系的担忧更加清晰。

“Right now, India feels that the U.S. is not a very reliable partner,” Mr. Mitra said. “They thought the U.S. was an ally. If India is moving towards China, it’s a friendship of convenience.”

“现在，印度觉得美国不是一个非常可靠的合作伙伴，”米特拉说。“他们曾认为美国是盟友。如果印度向中国靠拢，那也只是一种权宜之交。”

印度总理莫迪在天津举行的峰会上与俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平交谈。

In his social media post, the American president made no mention of his own role in alienating India. But while Russia and China have been growing closer for years, the shift in the relationship with India has been on Mr. Trump’s watch — and in large part because of his own actions.

在这篇社交媒体帖子中，美国总统没有提到他自己在疏远印度方面的责任。然而，尽管俄中关系日益密切已有多年，但印美关系的转变发生在特朗普任内——而且在很大程度上是因为他自己的行为。

In open pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, Mr. Trump claimed that he had “solved” the military conflict between India and Pakistan, angering New Delhi, which denies he had anything to do with a recent cease-fire between the two countries. It’s long been of the utmost importance in Indian politics that outside countries play no role in the delicate relationship between New Delhi and Islamabad.

特朗普公开寻求诺贝尔和平奖，声称是他“解决”了印度和巴基斯坦之间的军事冲突，这激怒了新德里，印度否认他与两国最近的停火有任何关系。在印度政治中，绝不容许外部势力介入新德里与伊斯兰堡之间微妙关系的原则历来具有至高重要性。

On top of that, Mr. Trump imposed heavy tariffs on India that he says were partly a punishment for purchasing oil from Russia. But China is a larger importer of Russian oil, and Mr. Trump has not imposed a similar tariff on Beijing, presumably because it has so many ways of striking back.

雪上加霜的是，特朗普对印度征收了高额关税，他说这在一定程度上是对印度从俄罗斯购买石油的惩罚。但中国从俄罗斯进口的石油更多，特朗普却没有对北京征收类似的关税，大概是因为中国拥有诸多反制手段的缘故。

“President Trump likes to back his allies into a corner and then use that leverage to extract concessions,” said Joshua T. White, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “Even if he succeeds in doing so with Prime Minister Modi, it could leave lasting scars on a relationship that is undeniably consequential to the United States.”

“特朗普总统喜欢把盟友逼到墙角，然后利用这种筹码迫使他们让步，”约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院教授约书亚·怀特说。“即便他成功对莫迪总理施展这种手段，也会给美印关系留下持久创伤——而这段关系对美国的重要性毋庸置疑。”

Mr. Trump learned strong-arm negotiation tactics during his ascent in the New York real estate world, and he has successfully used them to take over the G.O.P. And while many countries have rushed to sign trade deals, visit the White House and lavish praise and gifts upon Mr. Trump, some of the White House’s attempts to pressure other countries appear to have backfired, sending would-be allies into the embrace of China.

特朗普在纽约房地产界崛起的过程中学会了强硬的谈判策略，并成功地利用这些策略控制了共和党。尽管许多国家急于签署贸易协议、拜访白宫并向特朗普献上溢美之辞与厚礼，但白宫向另一些国家施压的举措似乎适得其反，反而将潜在的盟友推向了中国的怀抱。

The biggest evidence of how Mr. Trump has pushed countries that have been fundamentally pro-American into China’s camp came at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting this week. That is where Mr. Modi, visiting China for the first time in seven years, held hands and laughed with Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, and held a long conversation with the Russian leader in the back of his Russian-built luxury limousine.

特朗普如何将那些本质上曾经亲美的国家推入中国阵营，最有力的证据出现在上周的上海合作组织会议上。七年来首次访华的莫迪与普京和习近平握手谈笑，并在俄罗斯领导人那辆俄制豪华轿车后座上与之进行了长时间交谈。

But he was hardly alone. The leaders of Egypt, Turkey and Vietnam, all of which have been hit by the Trump tariffs, were also at the meeting. Each has been a significant, if sometimes reluctant, partner of the United States. And Mr. Trump has alienated Brazil, largely out of pique over the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he views as a political ally. Mr. Trump has punished South Africa, another nation the U.S. had grown closer with, after complaining that white South Africans were being discriminated against by a new land law. At a moment when he is expelling illegal immigrants, he has invited the white South Africans to come to the United States.

但他并非孤例。埃及、土耳其和越南的领导人也参加了该会议，这些国家都受到了特朗普关税的打击。它们都是美国重要的合作伙伴，尽管偶尔显得态度有所保留。特朗普疏远了巴西，主要是出于对前总统博尔索纳罗受审的愤怒，他认为博尔索纳罗是自己的政治盟友。特朗普还惩罚了另一个曾与美国日益密切的国家南非，此前特朗普抱怨南非白人受到新土地法的歧视。在驱逐非法移民的同时，他邀请南非白人来美国。

普京总统、习近平主席与朝鲜领导人金正恩上周三在北京人民大会堂出席纪念第二次世界大战结束80周年活动。

Mr. Trump’s post was a change in tone from earlier this week, when he sounded nonchalant about China’s military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of the World War II. Even so, Mr. Trump made clear he was paying close attention to the gathering of world leaders. On Tuesday night, he sarcastically posted for Mr. Xi to “give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”

特朗普此次的帖子与上周早些时候的语气有所不同，当时他对中国在北京举行的庆祝“二战”结束80周年阅兵式显得漠不关心。即便如此，他明确表示，他正在密切关注这一世界各国领导人的聚会。上周二晚间，他讽刺性地发文要求习近平“请向与你一起密谋对抗美利坚合众国的弗拉基米尔·普京和金正恩转达我最诚挚的问候”。

It was one of the first times that the president had acknowledged the alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — one of the biggest geopolitical developments of recent years. Until now, the administration had largely dismissed the alignment of these powers or spoke about vague desires to pull Russia away from China, perhaps exploiting their long-running rivalry. If anything, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi seem closer than ever; they spent the better part of three days together. When Mr. Trump met Mr. Putin in Anchorage last month, the session was cut short after a little more than three hours, and the Russian leader left without sampling the seafood lunch the White House had prepared.

这是总统第一次公开承认俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和朝鲜结盟——这是近年来最大的地缘政治演变之一。此前，本届政府在很大程度上对这些大国的结盟轻描淡写，要么只是含糊其辞地表示希望把俄罗斯从中国身边拉开，或许还能利用它们长期以来的竞争关系。但是普京和习近平似乎比以往任何时候都更加亲密；他们在一起度过了三天的大部分时间。上个月，特朗普在安克雷奇与普京会面时，仅仅三个多小时便草草收场，俄罗斯领导人没有品尝白宫准备的海鲜午餐就离开了。

There is little question that the approach Mr. Trump has taken over the past seven months in office has helped drive this aggregation of aggrieved states. These forces were at work before he took office for his second term, but they are accelerating as nations and leaders look for alternatives to tying themselves to the American camp.

毫无疑问，特朗普执政七个月来的行事方式助推了这些受挫国家的聚合。在他开始第二任期之前，这些力量就已经开始发挥作用，但随着各国和各国领导人寻求摆脱对美依赖的替代方案，这种趋势正在加速。

In that regard, the scenes that emerged from China this week are a warning that a reshaping of power is already underway, and America needs a strategy to deal with it.

就此而言，上周中国出现的种种情况是一个警示：权力格局的重塑已经开始，美国需要制定应对战略。

The former Biden officials Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, writing in Foreign Affairs this week, warned that strained U.S.-India relations could cede the innovation edge to China.

前拜登政府官员库尔特·坎贝尔和杰克·沙利文上周在《外交事务》上撰文警告，美印关系紧张可能会导致把创新优势拱手让给中国。

“The current trajectory risks a split that would be difficult to mend, to the great detriment of both countries,” they warned. “As Modi’s chummy appearance over the weekend with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear, the United States could end up driving India directly into its adversaries’ arms.”

“目前的发展轨迹可能导致难以修补的分裂，对两国都造成巨大损害，”他们警告说。“正如莫迪周末与中国国家主席习近平、俄罗斯总统普京亲密会晤所表明的，美国最终可能将印度直接推向对手的怀抱。”

Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said India was not keen to form a partnership with China.

新德里尼赫鲁大学国际政治学教授拉杰什·拉贾戈帕兰表示，印度并不热衷于与中国建立伙伴关系。

The two countries recently had a deadly skirmish over their shared border, and China has blocked India’s push for inclusion on the U.N. Security Council.

两国前不久在边界问题上发生了致命冲突，而且中国一直阻挠印度加入联合国安理会的努力。

“The U.S. hasn’t really lost India,” Mr. Rajagopalan said. “Trump is trying very hard, obviously, to push India away, because, obviously, the claims that he’s making are difficult for any Indian leadership to accept. But outside of that, I think India is very keen on having a close relationship with the United States. If he wants India, he can get it back.”

“美国并没有真正失去印度，”拉贾戈帕兰说。“特朗普分明正在极力推开印度，因为他提出的主张显然对任何印度领导人来说都很难接受。但除此之外，我认为印度非常希望与美国建立密切的关系。如果特朗普想要挽回印度，他可以做到。”

Democratic lawmakers warned on Friday that severe staff cuts at an intelligence office that monitors foreign threats to U.S. elections would leave the country vulnerable to interference and subversion from Beijing, as Chinese companies use artificial intelligence as a new weapon in information warfare.

美国民主党议员周五警告称，由于中国企业将人工智能作为信息战的新武器，负责监控外国对美国大选威胁的情报办公室大幅裁员将使美国更容易受到来自北京的干预和破坏。

In a letter to Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, Representatives Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois and André Carson of Indiana cited a New York Times story about technology developed by the Chinese company GoLaxy that aims to use artificial intelligence to make influence and information operations far more effective.

来自伊利诺伊州的众议员拉贾·克里希纳穆尔西和来自印第安纳州的众议员安德烈·卡森致信国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德，他们提到《纽约时报》关于中国公司中科天玑的一篇报道，称该公司研发的一项技术利用人工智能显著提升影响力和信息行动的效果。

The representatives, who both serve on the House China committee, said the cuts at Ms. Gabbard’s office were “stripping away the guardrails that protect our nation from foreign influence.”

这两位均在众议院中国问题特设委员会任职的议员表示，加巴德办公室进行的裁员正在“移除保护美国免受外国影响的护栏”。

In recent weeks, Ms. Gabbard announced staff reductions that all but eliminated the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which tracks efforts by adversarial countries to manipulate U.S. elections and warp American dialogue.

近几周，加巴德宣布的裁员几乎彻底裁撤了“外国恶意影响应对中心”，该中心负责追踪敌对国家操纵美国选举和歪曲美国舆论的努力。

Documents uncovered by Vanderbilt University and examined by The Times detailed new technology developed by GoLaxy that aimed to improve China’s ability to influence public debate. GoLaxy, according to the documents, had done work in Hong Kong and Taiwan and collected information about American lawmakers.

范德比尔特大学发现并经《纽约时报》审阅的文件详细介绍了中科天玑开发的新技术，该技术旨在提升中国影响公共辩论的能力。文件指出，中科天玑曾在香港和台湾开展行动，并曾收集美国议员的信息。

GoLaxy, according to the documents, was using artificial intelligence to track large numbers of people in order to generate pro-Chinese propaganda that could shape public debates, promote the views of China’s government and drown out voices opposed to its policies.

根据文件，中科天玑利用人工智能追踪大量人群，以生成亲中宣传，从而影响公共辩论，推广中国政府的观点，并淹没反对其政策的声音。

Former officials said American spy agencies had been tracking the company closely in recent years, including its information operations during recent Taiwanese elections. U.S. officials monitored GoLaxy to see if it would conduct information operations in the United States during the 2024 election, though they ultimately determined that the company did not seek to influence conversations at that time.

前政府官员称，美国情报机构最近几年一直在密切追踪这家公司，包括它在最近台湾选举期间的信息行动。美国官员监控中科天玑，观察其是否会在2024年大选期间在美国进行信息行动，但他们最终认定该公司当时并未试图干预舆论。

But former officials and outside experts say the threat to America from Chinese information operations is growing.

但前官员和外部专家表示，来自中国的信息行动对美国的威胁正在增长。

“Our research into GoLaxy reveals a clear path toward next-generation capabilities for producing fake but realistic online content and influence campaigns,” said Brett Goldstein of Vanderbilt’s Institute of National Security. “We’ve seen early signs of collection targeting prominent U.S. figures, and while the scope remains unclear, the intent is deeply concerning for American security and democracy.”

“我们对中科天玑的研究揭示了一条清晰的发展路径，即下一代制造虚假但逼真的网络内容和开展影响力行动的能力，”范德比尔特大学国家安全研究所的布雷特·戈尔茨坦说。“我们已经观察到针对美国知名人士进行信息采集的早期迹象，虽然范围尚不明确，但这种意图对美国的安全和民主而言令人深感担忧。”

Mr. Krishnamoorthi said China’s ruling Communist Party was very interested in trying to “sway the opinions of lawmakers.”

克里希纳穆尔西说，中国执政的共产党对试图“左右立法者的意见”非常感兴趣。

“We aren’t collecting information in an actionable way to defend against it,” he said. “And we are systematically dismantling portions of our government that were dedicated to tracking foreign malign influence.”

“我们没有以一种可操作的方式收集信息来进行防御，”他说。“而且我们正在系统性地瓦解政府中那些专门追踪外国恶意影响的部门。”

Olivia C. Coleman, a spokeswoman for Ms. Gabbard, said the letter from the Democrats was factually wrong and “an obvious effort to spread manufactured panic.”

加巴德的发言人奥利维亚·科尔曼说，民主党人的这封信存在事实错误，是“一种明显的散播人为恐慌的行为”。

“Our country’s ability to counter foreign influence operations has never been stronger,” Ms. Coleman said. “As we’ve said publicly on numerous occasions and as Congress has been told directly, core functions and expertise to ensure the safety, security and freedom of the American people have not been affected.”

“我国应对外国影响力行动的能力从未如此强大，”科尔曼说，“正如我们在无数次公开场合所说的那样，也正如国会已被直接告知的那样，确保美国人民安全、保障和自由的核心职能和专业能力并未受到影响。”

The annual intelligence threat assessment released by Ms. Gabbard’s office in March warned that China was trying to “expand its coercive and subversive malign influence activities to weaken the United States.”

加巴德办公室在3月发布的年度情报威胁评估报告曾警告称，中国正试图“扩大其胁迫性和颠覆性的恶意影响活动，以削弱美国”。

Mr. Krishnamoorthi said he was concerned the Chinese Communist Party was trying to exploit artificial intelligence to make its coercive campaigns more effective.

克里希纳穆尔西说，他担心中国共产党正试图利用人工智能来提高其胁迫性运动的有效性。

“A.I. technology, which we know that China is working assiduously to accelerate, provides a powerful tool to enhance its abilities to conduct more sophisticated influence campaigns designed to manipulate public opinion and sow discord within society,” he said.

“人工智能技术为中国提供了强大工具，能助其开展更复杂的舆论操纵活动以影响公众舆论、制造社会分裂，我们知道中国正不遗余力加速发展这项技术。”

During the 2024 election, the Foreign Malign Influence Center held a series of briefings, some for the news media and some for local officials, flagging efforts by Russia and other adversaries to undermine confidence in the vote. They warned of Russian efforts to spread false claims about Vice President Kamala Harris and doctored videos wrongly claiming that ballots in Pennsylvania had been destroyed.

在2024年大选期间，“外国恶意影响应对中心”举行了一系列简报会，其中一些面向新闻媒体，一些面向地方官员，重点关注俄罗斯和其他对手为破坏选举信心所做的努力。他们曾警告说，俄罗斯试图散布关于副总统贺锦丽的不实指控，并传播宾夕法尼亚州选票遭销毁的伪造视频。

U.S. officials concluded China sought to exert influence in some local races but stayed out of the presidential election, uncertain which candidate it favored.

美国官员们得出结论，中国试图在一些地方选举中施加影响，但没有介入总统选举，因为它不确定自己更倾向于哪一位候选人。

Shrinking the office and folding it into other parts of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence will prevent foreign influence efforts from getting the resources or focus the problem needs, Mr. Krishnamoorthi said.

克里希纳穆尔西说，缩减该办公室并将其并入国家情报总监办公室其他部门的做法将阻碍应对外国影响力的努力获得所需的资源或关注。

Ms. Coleman said the functions of the Foreign Malign Influence Center would be folded into other parts of Ms. Gabbard’s office. But she noted that Ms. Gabbard believed the center had been used by the Biden administration to suppress free speech, a contention Mr. Krishnamoorthi disputed.

科尔曼说，“外国恶意影响应对中心”的职能将被并入加巴德办公室的其他部分。但她指出，加巴德认为该中心曾被拜登政府用于压制言论自由，克里希纳穆尔西对此予以反驳。

The cuts to the center were “inexplicable,” Mr. Krishnamoorthi said. Congress created the office because it was concerned about greater influence operations by adversaries.

克里希纳穆尔西说，削减该中心“令人费解”。国会设立这一办公室是因为担心对手的影响行动日益加剧。

“We needed a central unit within the intelligence community to analyze and coordinate our response effort,” he said. “The scope of this threat has only magnified since the office was created. So why is the administration hollowing it out? It makes no sense.”

“我们需要情报界内部设立一个中央部门来分析并协调我们的应对努力，”他说。“自该办公室成立以来，这种威胁的范围只增不减。政府为什么要把它掏空？这毫无道理。”

In the letter, the Democrats noted that the Trump administration had also dismantled the F.B.I.’s Foreign Influence Task Force, the State Department had shuttered its office that called out foreign propaganda and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency had fired officials who had worked on countering election interference.

两位民主党人在信中指出，特朗普政府还解散了联邦调查局的外国影响力特别工作组，国务院关闭了一个负责打击外国宣传活动的办公室，而网络安全与基础设施安全局则解雇了负责打击选举干预的官员。

Those cuts, Mr. Krishnamoorthi said, put the country at risk. And he said efforts by China and Chinese companies to improve their ability to spread propaganda were particularly concerning in the face of the cuts.

克里希纳穆尔西说，这些削减让国家面临风险。他说，面对这些裁撤行动，中国和中国企业为提升宣传能力所做的努力尤其令人担忧。

“Instead of strengthening our response, the administration is dismantling our ability to track and counter these threats,” he said.

“政府非但没有加强我们的应对能力，反而在削弱我们追踪和反制这些威胁的能力，”他说。

On a busy corner in Greenwich Village, a new coffee shop with a dark facade and a spartan interior hummed with life.

在格林尼治村一个繁忙的街角，一家深色外墙、内部装饰简朴的新咖啡店里洋溢着生气。

Baristas in black paperboy caps worked quietly behind the bar, tapping away at screens and at boxy gray coffee machines. Customers, who were required to order by phone, streamed in to pick up their drinks. There was no line.

头戴黑色报童帽的咖啡师在吧台后安静地点着屏幕，操作灰色的方形咖啡机。只能用手机点单的顾客络绎不绝前来取餐。不需要排队。

By the doors, sandwich-board signs advertised syrupy concoctions with eye-catching names: iced coconut latte, iced velvet latte, pineapple cold brew, pink sunrise.

门口的夹板广告牌上写着糖浆特调饮品的吸睛名字：生椰拿铁、丝绒拿铁、菠萝冷萃和粉红日出。

Above the entrance, two words glowed in white: Luckin Coffee.

入口上方是几个白色英文字：Luckin Coffee。

“It’s different,” said Ari Birnbaum, 18, who traveled downtown from his home on the Upper West Side to try Luckin one day last month after learning about the shop on TikTok. “It’s cool. It’s sleek.”

“跟别的店不一样，”18岁的阿里·伯恩鲍姆说，他住在上西区，上个月在TikTok上看到这家店后专门过来探店。“很酷，也很时尚。”

It may not be a household name in New York City. But Luckin, which was founded less than a decade ago in Beijing and has more than 26,000 stores worldwide, nearly all of them in China, has dominated its home market with a futuristic retail model built around an efficient mobile-order system, inventive drinks and plenty of discounts.

瑞幸在纽约可能还不是家喻户晓的品牌，但不到十年前创立于北京、全球拥有超2.6万家门店（几乎全在中国）的瑞幸已经凭借以高效的手机点单系统、创意饮品和丰富折扣为核心的未来零售模式称霸本土市场。

Now Luckin has made it to the United States, the birthplace of Starbucks, the java goliath. The Chinese company has opened four stores in Manhattan this summer. The one in Greenwich Village stands a block away from a Starbucks that recently closed.

现在，它来到了咖啡巨头星巴克的诞生地——美国。今夏这家中国企业在曼哈顿连开四店。格林尼治村门店距不久前闭店的星巴克仅隔着一个街区。

Luckin and Starbucks have been engaged in a great global coffee rivalry in recent years, as Luckin has surged past the Seattle-based chain in China. The next question: Can Luckin challenge Starbucks on its home turf?

过去几年，瑞幸和星巴克在全球展开激烈竞争。在中国，瑞幸已超越这家总部位于西雅图的连锁品牌。如今的悬念是：瑞幸能否在星巴克的主场挑战它？

Starbucks arrived in New York 31 years ago like a thunderclap, planting its flag with a 3,000-square-foot storefront on an Upper West Side corner and swiftly conquering the city. New Yorkers were enthralled by its cozy cosmopolitan atmosphere, friendly baristas and premium arabica coffee.

31年前，星巴克声势浩大地降临纽约，在上西区一角开了一家近280平方米的旗舰店后，迅速征服了这座城市。纽约客为其温馨的国际风情、友好的咖啡师和优质的阿拉比卡咖啡所倾倒。

自31年前进入纽约以来，星巴克已经变得像这座城市的地铁站一样常见。

It opened store after store in Manhattan, many right next to existing coffee shops.

它在曼哈顿遍地开花，许多门店直接开在现有咖啡馆的旁边。

But Starbucks is no longer the advancing force it once was. Its sales are sluggish. It has struggled to adapt to the mobile-order era. And it has been buffeted by the arrival of smaller, artisanal chains, which in New York include Variety Coffee, Café Grumpy and the private-equity-backed Blank Street Coffee.

但星巴克已不复昔日进取之势。销售增长疲软，难以适应手机点单时代，还受到许多小型精品咖啡连锁品牌的冲击，比如纽约本土的Variety Coffee、Café Grumpy，以及私募支持的Blank Street Coffee等。

Luckin was founded in Beijing in 2017 and quickly dethroned Starbucks as China’s coffee king. It offers an abundance of creative lattes made with arabica beans and a gamelike app that provides users with an addictive feed of coupons.

瑞幸2017年在北京创立，之后迅速取代星巴克成为中国的咖啡之王。它不仅提供大量由阿拉比卡咖啡豆制作的创意拿铁，更推出了一款游戏化应用程序，以令人上瘾的优惠券推送吸引用户。

Luckin arrived in New York on June 30, when it opened the city’s first two stores. One is in NoMad on Sixth Avenue, a block from a Starbucks. The other is in Greenwich Village near Astor Place, where for nearly 30 years a large Starbucks stood before closing last summer.

6月30日瑞幸登陆纽约，两家首店一家位于第六大道的诺玛德，距星巴克一个街区；另外一家在阿斯特广场附近的格林尼治村，而有着近30年历史的星巴克一家星巴克大门店在去年夏季闭店。

In late August, a third Luckin opened in Hell’s Kitchen, a block north of a Starbucks, and a fourth opened in the Financial District, within a few hundred feet of another Starbucks.

8月下旬第三家店落户地狱厨房，往南一个街区也有一家星巴克；第四家进驻金融区，与星巴克门店相距百米。

For Starbucks, Luckin’s arrival is an uncomfortable challenge from a company that the Seattle chain, in a sense, helped create.

对星巴克来说，瑞幸的到来是一种令人不安的挑战——从某种意义上说，这家西雅图巨头成就了对手。

Over the last quarter-century, Starbucks supercharged the once-sleepy Chinese coffee market, storming a country that had long preferred tea.

过去25年间，星巴克激活了曾经沉寂的中国咖啡市场，攻克了这个长期以来茶文化主导的国度。

瑞幸更注重便利性。顾客不会在杯子上看到咖啡师用马克笔写下的名字或画上的笑脸。

But the chain has since been humbled in China. Luckin arrived on the scene and, despite a significant accounting scandal three years after its founding that drove out its top leadership, jumped to the front of the pack.

但此后，该连锁品牌在中国受挫。瑞幸登场后迅速领跑，即便创立三年之际它曾经出现重大财务丑闻，导致管理层大换血。

Now Luckin has three stores for every Starbucks in China, according to the companies’ data. And although China remains Starbucks’s second-largest market, its market share there fell from 40 percent in 2017 to 14 percent last year, according to the firm Bernstein Research.

企业数据显示，瑞幸在华门店数已是星巴克的三倍。据伯恩斯坦研究公司统计，虽然中国仍是星巴克第二大市场，但份额已从2017年的40%降至去年的14%。

Already, Luckin has more stores in China than Starbucks does in North America. (With more than 41,000 stores worldwide, Starbucks still leads Luckin globally.)

瑞幸在华门店数已超越星巴克北美门店数总和。不过星巴克全球门店超过4.1万家，仍然领先瑞幸。

Luckin’s footprint in the United States may so far be modest, but its ambitions do not appear to be.

瑞幸在美国的布局迄今为止或许仍很有限，但野心却不容小觑。

Guo Jinyi, Luckin’s chief executive, told investors in an earnings call in late July that the company’s expansion in the United States would be deliberate and that the chain’s exploration remained in its infancy.

瑞幸首席执行官郭谨一在7月底的财报电话会上对投资者表示，公司在美国的扩张将会循序渐进，目前仍处于探索的初期阶段。

A Luckin post on Instagram that month sounded more aggressive, describing its first New York locations as “just the beginning.”

同月，瑞幸在Instagram上的帖文则显得更为激进，称其在纽约的首批门店“仅仅是个开始”。

Luckin declined to go into detail about its plans for New York, but vowed in a statement to inject “new vitality” into American coffee culture.

瑞幸拒绝详述进军纽约市场的计划，但声明中将承诺为美国咖啡文化注入“新活力”。

Starbucks avoided commenting directly on Luckin’s arrival, but said in a statement that its stores combined “convenience, connection and craft — offering not just high-quality coffee, but a welcoming experience.”

星巴克并没有对瑞幸的到来予以直接评论，而是在一份声明中称自己的门店融合“便捷性、联结感与工艺——不仅提供高品质咖啡，更营造温馨体验”。

As far as coffee shops go, Luckin and Starbucks have little in common.

在咖啡店的经营理念上，瑞幸和星巴克几乎没有共同点。

瑞幸位于第六大道的门店距离星巴克仅一个街区。

Starbucks was long powered by the vision of Howard Schultz: to bring Italian-style coffeehouses to the United States that would be so-called third places, spots beyond the home and the office to gather with friends or curl up with a newspaper.

星巴克长期以来一直秉承霍华德·舒尔茨的愿景：把意式咖啡馆带到美国，打造所谓的“第三空间”——家和办公室之外，人们可以与朋友小聚或闲阅报章的地方。

Mr. Schultz, who stepped away from the company’s management in 2023 but remains chairman emeritus, has suggested that the connection between Starbucks’s baristas and its customers has been essential to the chain’s success.

2023年卸任管理层但仍保留名誉董事长职务的舒尔茨曾指出，星巴克的咖啡师与顾客之间的情感联结是这家连锁企业成功的关键基石。

Luckin prioritizes convenience. Charm is not on the menu. Its customers should not expect to find their names handwritten in Sharpie on their cups, accompanied by smiley faces.

相比之下，瑞幸更注重便利性。温情元素并不在它的魅力清单上。顾客不会在杯子上看到咖啡师用马克笔写下的名字或画上的笑脸。

Luckin customers receive alerts on their phones when their drinks are ready, and they can pick them up without interacting with the baristas behind the bar.

在饮品制作完成后，瑞幸的顾客会收到手机提示，无需与吧台后的咖啡师互动即可取餐。

Starbucks has struggled in recent years to adjust to the growing popularity of mobile ordering. Some stores have had chaotic rush-hour pickup lines that Mr. Schultz has disapprovingly likened to mosh pits.

近年来，星巴克始终难以适应日益流行的手机点单趋势。部分门店高峰时段的取餐队伍混乱不堪，舒尔茨不满地将其比作摇滚演唱会上混乱推搡的“撞人区”。

The company’s chief executive, Brian Niccol, has promised that Starbucks will re-establish itself as a reliable “third place,” and has predicted its stores will soon look and feel quite different.

公司现任首席执行官布赖恩·尼科尔承诺，星巴克将重塑其作为可靠“第三空间”的定位，并预言门店即将呈现焕然一新的面貌与体验。

Since Mr. Niccol took the helm last year, Starbucks has ushered in plans to increase seating, hire more baristas and close pickup-only locations or convert them into traditional cafes. Aiming to provide a more inviting atmosphere, it has also scrapped a policy that allowed people to use Starbucks’s bathrooms without making a purchase.

自尼科尔去年上任以来，星巴克已推行增加座位、增聘咖啡师计划，并关闭只供取餐的门店或将其改造成传统咖啡馆。为营造更具吸引力的氛围，公司还取消了允许非消费者使用星巴克洗手间的政策。

But it is not clear how the shift will position Starbucks against competitors like Luckin.

然则这种转型将如何助力星巴克应对瑞幸等竞争对手目前犹未可知。

On a recent Saturday afternoon, the Luckin near Astor Place bustled with activity as jazz played softly from speakers.

在最近一个周六的下午，阿斯特广场附近的瑞幸咖啡店里一片忙碌，扬声器里播放着轻柔的爵士乐。

瑞幸在格林尼治村的新店。附近一家开业30年的星巴克今年夏天闭店了。

A smattering of people sat at three small tables, and a circle of young friends chatted in a corner, leaning over their phones. A churn of customers entered, collected drinks and left.

三张小桌子旁坐着零星的顾客，一群年轻朋友聚在角落里闲聊，低头看着手机。顾客们不断进出，取走饮品后转身离开。

About a mile away, outside the Luckin in NoMad, Valerie Kwong had been drawn to the chain for a simple reason. She was tired of seeing American brands dominate.

大约1000多米外，在诺玛德的另一家瑞幸门店外，瓦莱丽·邝（音）选择来这里的理由很简单：她厌倦了美国品牌主导市场的景象。

“That’s why I would go out of my way not to go to Starbucks,” explained Ms. Kwong, 29, an environmental engineer from Jersey City, N.J., who was drinking a hot latte.

“这就是为什么我会特意绕开星巴克的原因，”这位29岁、来自新泽西州泽西市的环境工程师一边喝着热拿铁，一边解释道。

As the Luckin in NoMad hummed, a Starbucks one block south was quiet. Overlooking a street corner, it has the type of uninviting atmosphere that the chain is trying to pivot away from, with no seats or bathrooms for patrons.

当诺玛德的瑞幸门庭若市时，往南一个街区的星巴克却显得冷清。这家位于街角的门店没有座位和顾客可以使用的洗手间，氛围单调乏味，这正是星巴克试图摆脱的形象。

For long stretches that afternoon, the baristas behind the counter easily outnumbered the drip of customers filtering through.

那个下午的大部分时间里，柜台后的咖啡师比进店的零星顾客多。

At one point, a woman looking for a comfortable place to sit wandered in. Unsatisfied by the lack of chairs, she turned around and left.

有一位走进来想找个可以舒服坐一坐的地方，发现没有椅子后，旋即转身离去。

China has rare earth metals. The United States and Brazil have soybeans.

中国有稀土金属。美国和巴西有大豆。

For all the chokeholds China maintains on global supply chains, it is overwhelmingly dependent on soybeans from other parts of the world. China imports three-fifths of all the soybeans traded on international markets. Now with China and the United States locked in a tense standoff over tariffs, soybeans have emerged as a central dispute between the trading partners.

尽管中国在全球供应链中占有诸多重要位置，但它对来自世界其他地区的大豆依赖程度极高。中国进口的大豆占国际市场贸易总量的五分之三。现在，随着中国和美国在关税问题上陷入紧张的对峙，大豆已成为这两个贸易伙伴之间的核心争端。

China has been boycotting purchases of U.S. soybeans since late May to show displeasure with President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from China. The pain is being felt in Midwest states, especially Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana. For the first time in many years, American farmers are preparing to harvest their crop this fall with no purchase orders from China.

自5月下旬以来，中国一直抵制购买美国大豆，以表达对特朗普总统对中国进口产品征收关税的不满。中西部各州感受到了痛苦，尤其是伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州。美国农民正面临多年未有的情况——今年秋收时，中国尚未下达任何采购订单。

“The further into the autumn we get without reaching an agreement with China on soybeans, the worse the impacts will be on U.S. soybean farmers,” the American Soybean Association warned in a letter to Mr. Trump on Aug. 19.

8月19日，美国大豆协会致信特朗普警告称，“入秋后如果我们还不能与中国就大豆问题达成协议，对美国大豆种植者的影响将更加严重。”

But China also faces risks in the standoff. Brazil, which will harvest its crop early next year, is the only other country with enough soybeans to meet Chinese demand and enough trains and port capacity to move those soybeans to China.

但中国在这场对峙中也面临风险。巴西将于明年年初收获大豆，它是唯一一个产量能满足中国需求，并有足够的火车和港口运力将这些大豆运往中国的国家。

“I think they could probably go without American soybeans this autumn, but if Brazil has some drought or flood that affects their crops next year, it would put China in a difficult position,” said Darin Friedrichs, the managing director of Sitonia Consulting, a research firm specializing in Chinese agriculture.

专门研究中国农业的研究公司西托尼亚咨询的董事总经理达林·弗里德里希斯说，“我认为今年秋天他们可能不会购入美国大豆，但如果明年巴西发生干旱或洪水影响作物，那将使中国陷入困境。”

哈尔滨附近某村庄工厂的大豆压榨设备。工厂内的双城区地图，双城是哈尔滨市管辖的农村区域。

In China, a record soybean crop is expected this year and farmers like Zhou Ping are thriving. With demand strong, prices are rising, and this summer brought an almost perfect balance of sunshine and rain.

在中国，预计今年大豆的收成将创历史新高，像周平（音）这样的农民日子过得很好。由于需求强劲，价格也在上涨，今年夏天，阳光和雨水几乎达到了完美的平衡。

“This year’s is the best soybean crop I’ve seen in years,” he said, standing at the edge of his dark green field of thigh-high plants.

“今年的豆长得最好，”他站在过膝高的深绿色大豆田边说。

Yet even with a likely harvest of 21 million tons this year, China will need to import another 100 to 105 million tons.

然而，即使今年国内产量可能达到2100万吨，中国还需要再进口1亿至1.05亿吨大豆。

China’s immense need for imported soybeans — enough each year to fill the Superdome in New Orleans more than 30 times — reflects a shift toward protein-rich diets as living standards have soared over the past 30 years. China now raises vast numbers of pigs and chickens.

中国对进口大豆的需求极为巨大，每年的进口量足以填满新奥尔良的超级巨蛋体育场超过30次。如此大的需求也反映出过去30年，随着生活水平的提高，中国向高蛋白质结构饮食的转变。中国现在饲养了大量的猪和鸡。

China imports genetically modified soybeans to feed these animals. Genetic modifications are almost completely banned in China, and the soybeans grown in China are mainly used for human consumption, notably in tofu and soy milk.

中国进口转基因大豆用于饲喂这些动物。中国几乎完全禁止转基因大豆，本土种植的大豆主要用于人类食用，尤其是豆腐和豆浆。

Before Mr. Trump’s first trade war with Beijing in 2018, China bought a quarter to a third of the American crop. China has since tried to develop alternatives. But only Brazil has really managed to increase supplies significantly to the Chinese market.

在2018年特朗普首次对华发动贸易战之前，中国采购了美国大豆总产量的四分之一至三分之一。此后，中国一直试图开发替代来源。但只有巴西真正成功地大幅增加了对中国市场的供应。

China bought 71 percent of its soybean imports last year from Brazil, when near-perfect weather led to a record crop.

去年，中国71%的大豆进口来自巴西，当时该国近乎完美的天气带来了创纪录的收成。

The United States supplied 21 percent of China’s total imported soybeans last year. The crop is nonetheless the largest remaining export from the United States to China. Beijing has systematically replaced imports of farm equipment and other advanced manufactured goods from the United States through a program, Made in China 2025, intended to boost the country’s self-reliance.

去年，美国大豆占中国大豆进口总量的21%。尽管如此，这种作物仍然是美国对中国最大的出口产品。北京通过旨在自力更生的《中国制造2025》计划系统地取代了从美国进口的农业设备和其他先进制成品。

顾客在双城区一个乡村的大豆压榨厂购买大豆食用油。中国种植的大豆主要用于人类食用，进口的转基因大豆则用于动物饲料。

China has made a concerted effort to grow more soybeans, deploying extensive government subsidies. Despite this year’s successful harvest, the results of that effort have been mixed.

中国通过统一行动来种植更多大豆，并且部署了大量的政府补贴。尽管今年获得了丰收，但这一努力成效不一。

The country’s main growers are in Heilongjiang Province, in northeastern China next to Russia’s Siberia. But they have been slow to increase output.

中国的主要大豆产区在黑龙江，位于中国东北部，毗邻俄罗斯的西伯利亚。但这里在增加产量方面进展缓慢。

The government pays farmers in much of Heilongjiang a subsidy equivalent to about $17 an acre to grow corn and about $300 to grow soybeans. Yet in villages near Harbin, the provincial capital, and near Heihe, on the Amur River border with Russia, most fields are still covered with corn.

在黑龙江的大部分地区，政府给农民的补贴是种植玉米每亩20元左右，种植大豆每亩350元左右。然而，在省会哈尔滨附近的村庄，以及与俄罗斯接壤的黑龙江边的黑河市附近，大多数田地仍然长满了玉米。

Farmers who planted soy said their neighbors were reluctant to switch crops.

种植大豆的农民说，他们的邻居不愿意更换作物。

The rule of thumb in Heilongjiang is that corn sells for half as much per ton as soybeans. But an acre of farmland planted with corn typically produces three times as much food. So farmers can earn more money from corn than from soybeans, even when the subsidies are factored in.

根据黑龙江的经验，每吨玉米的价格通常是大豆的一半。但一亩玉米田的产量通常是大豆田的三倍。因此，即使把补贴考虑在内，种植玉米的农民收入仍高于种植大豆的农民。

Heilongjiang, like most of rural China, has a severe labor shortage, as young people leave for cities. They earn soaring wages in the country’s factories, which are also short of labor but pay much more than farming.

与中国大部分农村地区一样，黑龙江也面临着严重的劳动力短缺问题。年轻人纷纷涌入城市，他们在这个国家的工厂里获得高薪，这些同样缺工的工厂支付的工资远高于农业收入。

“Corn is easy to grow because it’s less hassle — soybeans require more care and maintenance, and if they’re not managed properly, they’ll become weed-ridden,” said Jia Yinghai, a farmer in Dawusili, a village near Heihe.

黑河附近大乌斯力村的农民贾英海（音）说：“玉米容易种，因为啥比较省心。大豆涉及到后期管理这块，如果说管理不好的话，会草荒。”

哈尔滨双城区某农庄外的玉米地。哈尔滨附近一个村庄里，工人正往卡车上装玉米。

During the first Trump administration, when Beijing briefly halted purchases of American soybeans, many people thought Russia could help China reduce its dependency on American imports.

特朗普首个任期内，北京曾短暂停止购买美国大豆，许多人认为俄罗斯可以帮助中国减少对美国进口的依赖。

Some Chinese businesses already operate soybean farms across the Amur River in Siberia. But their efforts to expand have run into trouble.

一些中国企业已经在黑龙江对岸的西伯利亚经营大豆农场。但它们的扩张努力遇到了麻烦。

For one, the Chinese rail line that runs south from the Russian border at Heihe charges higher freight rates than China’s national system, said Zhou Rui, the general manager of the Heihe Beifeng Yuandong Agricultural Development Company, a Heihe enterprise with soybean farms in Russia. The company has soybean crushing mills in Heihe that squeeze out the soybean oil, used in cooking, and leave behind soybean meal, used as animal feed.

黑河北丰远东农业开发有限公司的总经理周锐说，首先，从俄罗斯边境往南的黑河铁路收取的运费高于中国的国家铁路系统。黑河北丰远东农业开发有限公司是一家在俄罗斯拥有大豆农场的黑河企业。该公司在黑河拥有大豆压榨厂，压榨用于烹饪的大豆油，并留下副产品豆粕用作动物饲料。

Trucks send Heihe Beifeng’s high-value soybean oil south. But the company has found it hard to persuade big chicken- and pig-rearing companies 1,500 miles away in central China to buy its soybean meal, said Mr. Zhou, who is not related to the farmer with the same family name.

卡车将黑河北丰的高价值大豆油运往南方。但周锐说，公司难以说服约2400公里外中国中部的大型养鸡和养猪公司购买其豆粕。周锐与农民周平没有亲戚关系。

To make matters worse, Russia changed its soybean policies after invading Ukraine in 2022. Russia introduced a tax of roughly 20 percent on exports of uncrushed soybeans. The tax discouraged farmers from sending their crops to China.

更糟糕的是，俄罗斯在2022年入侵乌克兰后改变了其大豆政策，对未压榨的大豆出口征收大约20%的税。这项税收使农民不愿把作物出口到中国。

Russia’s rail system is also providing free shipment of soybean meal to livestock farms in western Russia, which supply meat to its soldiers at the front lines. That is another incentive for soybeans grown in Russia’s Siberia to be moved west, not south into China.

俄罗斯的铁路系统还向俄罗斯西部的畜牧场提供免费的豆粕运输服务，这些牧场为前线的士兵提供肉类。这同样促使俄罗斯西伯利亚种植的大豆向西转移、而不是向南转到中国。

Last year, Russia’s soybean exports to China fell by half, and made up only 0.6 percent of China’s total soybean imports.

去年，俄罗斯对中国的大豆出口减少了一半，仅占中国大豆进口总量的0.6%。

Overall, China sells three to four times more in goods to the United States than it buys, an imbalance that President Trump is trying to address. “I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders,” he wrote on social media last month.

总体而言，中国向美国出口的商品是其进口的三到四倍，这种失衡正是特朗普总统试图解决的问题。他上个月在社交媒体上写道：“我希望中国的大豆订单能迅速增加三倍。”

China may yet have another trump card as it jockeys with the United States over soybeans, however: strategic stockpiles of soybeans to use during war, agricultural disaster or other crises. While the precise size of the stockpiles is a state secret, the U.S. government recently estimated that Beijing may hold 45 million tons of soybeans, or two years’ worth of imports from the United States.

然而，在与美国就大豆问题进行博弈的过程中，中国可能还有另一张王牌：用于战争、农业灾害或其他危机的战略大豆储备。虽然储备确切规模是国家机密，但美国政府最近估计，北京可能持有4500万吨大豆，相当于从美国进口的两年总量。

Less clear, however, is how much of that emergency reserve China is willing to tap for a trade war.

然而，中国愿意动用多少应急储备来打贸易战，目前尚不明确。

黑河渔民在与俄罗斯接壤的黑龙江畔作业。每年10月河面结冰前，俄罗斯的大豆通过船运跨越黑龙江运抵黑河。

China and America don’t know it yet, but the artificial intelligence revolution is going to drive them closer together, not farther apart. The rise of A.I. will force them to fiercely compete for dominance and — at the same time and with equal energy — cooperate at a depth our two countries have never attempted before. They will have no choice.

中国和美国尚未意识到，人工智能革命终将拉近而非疏远两国的距离。人工智能的崛起将迫使两国激烈争夺主导地位，同时也会促使它们以前所未有的深度展开合作。它们别无选择。

Why am I so confident about that? Because A.I. has certain unique attributes and poses certain challenges that are different from those presented by any previous technology. This column will discuss them in detail, but here are a couple to chew on for starters: A.I. will spread like a steam vapor and seep into everything. It will be in your watch, your toaster, your car, your computer, your glasses and your pacemaker — always connected, always communicating, always collecting data to improve performance. As it does, it will change everything about everything — including geopolitics and trade between the world’s two A.I. superpowers, and the need for cooperation will become ever more apparent each month.

为何我如此确信？因为人工智能具有某些独特属性，并带来了以往任何技术都未曾引发的全新挑战。本文将详细探讨这些特质与挑战，先列举几点可供思考：人工智能将如蒸汽般扩散，渗透到万事万物中——手表、烤面包机、汽车、电脑、眼镜乃至心脏起搏器，都将嵌入人工智能，时刻联网、时刻通信、时刻收集数据，以便优化性能。在此过程中，它将改变一切，包括两个人工智能超级大国之间的地缘政治和贸易，而合作的必要性将日益明确起来。

For instance, say you break your hip, and your orthopedist tells you the world’s most highly rated hip replacement is a Chinese-made prosthetic that is infused with Chinese-designed A.I. It is constantly learning about your body and, with its proprietary algorithm, using that data to optimize your movements in real time. It’s the best!

举例来说，假设你髋骨骨折，骨科医生告诉你，全球评分最高的髋关节置换假体是中国产的，其中融入了中国设计的人工智能。它会持续学习你的身体状况，并通过专有算法实时优化你的行动模式。它是最优选择！

Would you let that “smart hip” be sewn into you? I wouldn’t — not unless I knew that China and America had agreed to embed a common ethical architecture into every A.I.-enabled device that either nation builds. Viewed on a much larger, global scale, this could ensure that A.I. is used only for the benefit of humanity, whether it is employed by humans or operates on its own initiative.

你会允许这个“智能髋关节”植入体内吗？我不会——除非我得知中美两国已经达成协议，在各自生产的每一台人工智能设备中植入共同的伦理架构。从更宏观的全球视角来看，这能确保无论是由人类操控还是自主运行，人工智能都只为人类福祉服务。

At the same time, Washington and Beijing will soon discover that putting A.I. in the hands of every person and robot on the planet will super-empower bad people to levels no law enforcement agency has ever faced. Remember: Bad guys are always early adopters! And without the United States and China agreeing on a trust architecture to ensure that every A.I. device can be used only for humans’ well-being, the artificial intelligence revolution is certain to produce super-empowered thieves, scam artists, hackers, drug dealers, terrorists and misinformation warriors. They will destabilize both America and China, long before these two superpower nations get around to fighting a war with each other.

与此同时，中美两国很快会发现，当人工智能普及到每个人、每台机器人手中时，将使坏人获得前所未有的超级能力，其危害程度远超任何执法机构的应对极限。要知道，坏人总是新技术的先行者！若中美不能就信任机制达成共识，确保每台人工智能设备都只服务于人类福祉，那么人工智能革命必将催生超级盗贼、诈骗犯、黑客、毒贩、恐怖分子和虚假信息传播者。不等两个超级大国兵戎相见，这些人就足以动摇两国的根基。

In short, as I will argue, if we cannot trust A.I.-infused products from China and it can’t trust ours, very soon the only item China will dare buy from America will be soybeans and the only thing we will dare buy from China is soy sauce, which will surely sap global growth.

简言之，正如我要阐述的，如果我们无法信任中国的人工智能产品，中国也不信任我们的，那么很快，中国可能只敢从美国购买大豆，而我们可能只敢从中国购买酱油，这无疑会扼杀全球经济增长。

“Friedman, are you crazy? The U.S. and China collaborating on A.I. regulation? Democrats and Republicans are in a contest today to see who can denounce Beijing the loudest and decouple the fastest. And China’s leadership has openly committed to dominating every advanced manufacturing sector. We need to beat China to artificial superintelligence — not slow down to write rules with them. Don’t you read the papers?”

“弗里德曼，你疯了吗？中美就人工智能监管开展合作？如今民主党和共和党都在比拼谁谴责北京声音更响亮、谁更快推动脱钩。而且中国领导层已公开承诺，要主导所有先进制造业领域。我们需要在超级人工智能领域击败中国，而不是放慢脚步与他们共同制定规则。你难道不看报纸吗？”

Yes, I read the newspapers — especially the science section. And I’ve also been discussing this issue for the past year with my friend and A.I. adviser Craig Mundie, the former head of research and strategy for Microsoft and a co-author, with Henry Kissinger and Eric Schmidt, of the A.I. primer “GENESIS.” I relied heavily on Mundie’s thinking for this column, and I consider him both a partner in forming our thesis and an expert whose analysis is worth quoting to explain key points.

是的，我看报纸——尤其是科技版块。过去一年里，我还与我的好友、人工智能顾问克雷格·芒迪探讨过这个问题。他曾担任微软研究与战略主管，还与亨利·基辛格、埃里克·施密特合著了人工智能入门书籍《人工智能时代与人类价值》(GENESIS)。本文的观点深受芒迪思想的启发，我视他为共同建构论点的伙伴，也是值得引用其分析来阐释关键观点的专家。

Our conversations over the past 20 years have led us to this shared message to anti-China hawks in Washington and anti-America hawks in Beijing: “If you think your two countries, the world’s dominant A.I. superpowers, can afford to be at each other’s throats — given the transformative reach of A.I. and the trust that will be required to trade A.I.-infused goods — you are the delusional ones.”

过去20年的交流让我们得出这样的共识，要传递给华盛顿的反华鹰派和北京的反美鹰派：“鉴于人工智能的变革性影响，以及展开人工智能产品的贸易所需的信任，如果你们认为这两个国家——全球人工智能领域的两个主导大国——能承受相互撕咬的代价，那就是失心疯了。”

We fully understand the extraordinary economic, military and innovation advantages that will accrue to the country whose companies first achieve artificial superintelligence — systems smarter than any human could ever be and with the ability to get smarter on their own. And because of that, neither the United States nor China will be eager to impose many, if any, constraints that could slow their A.I. industries and forfeit the enormous productivity, innovation and security gains expected from deeper deployment.

我们完全理解，哪个国家的企业能够率先实现超级人工智能——比任何人类都聪明且能自主进化的系统——哪个国家就能获得巨大的经济、军事和创新优势。正因如此，中美两国都不会轻易施加过多限制，以免拖累本国人工智能产业发展，错失深度部署人工智能所带来的巨大生产力、创新和安全收益。

Just ask President Trump. On July 23, he signed an executive order — part of the administration’s AI Action Plan — streamlining the permitting and environmental review process to fast-track American A.I.-related infrastructure.

问问特朗普总统就知道了。7月23日，他签署了一项行政命令——作为政府人工智能行动计划的一部分——简化审批和环境审查流程，为美国人工智能相关基础设施建设开辟快速通道。

“America is the country that started the A.I. race, and as president of the United States, I’m here today to declare that America is going to win it,” Trump proclaimed. President Xi Jinping of China undoubtedly feels the same way.

“美国开启了人工智能竞赛，作为美国总统，我今天在此宣布，美国将赢得这场竞赛，”特朗普宣称。中国国家主席习近平无疑也认为自己会赢。

Mundie and I simply do not believe that this jingoistic chest-thumping ends the conversation – nor will the old-school jockeying lately between Xi and Trump over the affections of India and Russia. A.I. is just too different, too important, too impactful — within and between the two A.I. superpowers — for them to just each go their own ways. Which is why we believe the biggest geopolitical and geoeconomic question going forward is: Can the United States and China maintain competition on A.I. while collaborating on a shared level of trust that guarantees it always remains aligned with human flourishing and planetary stability? And, just as crucially, can they extend a system of values to countries willing to play by those same rules — and restrict access to those that won’t?

但芒迪和我认为，这种沙文主义的夸夸其谈并不是对话的终结，习近平与特朗普近期围绕争取印度和俄罗斯支持的传统式拉拢和角力也无法终结这一讨论。人工智能太过特殊、太过重要、影响太过深远——在两个人工智能大国之内以及两国之间都是如此，因此，两国无法只是各行其是。正因如此，我们认为，未来最大的地缘政治和地缘经济问题在于：美中两国能否在人工智能领域保持竞争的同时，构建足够的互信，确保人工智能始终服务于人类福祉和地球稳定？同样关键的是，它们能否将这一价值体系推广到愿意遵守规则的国家，并且限制不遵守规则的国家的参与？

If not, the result will be a slow drift toward digital autarky — a fractured world where every nation builds its own walled-off A.I. ecosystem, guarded by incompatible standards and mutual suspicion. Innovation will suffer. Mistrust will fester. And the risk of catastrophic failure — whether through A.I.-sparked conflict, collapse or unintended consequence — will only grow.

如果两国做不到这一点，世界将逐渐走向数字封闭自足的格局——一个分裂的世界，每个国家都构建封闭的人工智能生态系统，带着互不相容的标准和相互猜忌的心理彼此戒备。创新将会受阻，不信任将会加剧，而灾难性失败的风险——无论是由人工智能引发的冲突、系统崩溃还是意外后果——都将不断攀升。

The rest of this column is about why.

本文接下来的内容将解释为什么合作是必须的。

The Age of Vapor

蒸汽时代

Let’s start by examining the unique attributes and challenges of A.I. as a technology.

让我们先来分析作为技术的人工智能所具有的独特属性和挑战。

Purely for explanatory purposes, Mundie and I divide the history of the world into three epochs, separated by technological phase changes. The first epoch we call the Age of Tools, and it lasted from the birth of humanity until the invention of the printing press. In this era the flow of ideas was slow and limited — almost like H₂0 molecules in ice.

为便于解释，芒迪和我将人类历史划分为三个时代，以技术相变作为分界线。第一个时代是“工具时代”，从人类诞生持续到印刷术发明。在这个时代，思想传播缓慢且受限，就像冰层中的水分子。

The second epoch was the Age of Information, which was triggered by the printing press and lasted all the way to the early 21st century and programmable computing; ideas, people and information began to flow more easily and globally, like water.

第二个时代是“信息时代”，由印刷术催生，一直延续到21世纪初可编程计算出现；此时，思想、人员和信息开始更自由地在全球流动，如同液态的水。

The third epoch, the Age of Intelligence, began in the late 2010s with the advent of true machine learning and artificial intelligence. Now, as I pointed out above, intelligence is becoming like a vapor, seeping into every product, service and manufacturing process. It has not reached saturation yet, but that is where it is going, which is why if you ask Mundie and me what time it is, we won’t give you an hour or a minute. We will give you a temperature. Water boils into steam at 212 degrees Fahrenheit, and by our reckoning, we are at 211.9 degrees — just a hair’s breadth from an irreversible technological phase change in which intelligence filters into everything.

第三个时代是“智能时代”，始于21世纪10年代末，以真正的机器学习和人工智能出现为标志。正如我前文所指出的，智能变得像蒸汽一样，渗透到每个产品、服务和制造流程中。它尚未达到饱和状态，但正朝着这个方向发展。因此，若你问芒迪和我现在到了什么阶段，我们不会告诉你几点几分，而是告诉你一个温度。水在100摄氏度时沸腾成蒸汽，而在我们看来，现在的温度是99.9摄氏度——距离智能渗透万物的不可逆相变仅有一步之遥。

A New, Independent Species

一个全新的、独立的物种

In every previous technology revolution, the tools got better but the hierarchy of intelligence never changed. We humans always remained the smartest things on the planet. Also, a human always understood how these tools worked, and the machines always worked within the parameters we set. With the A.I. revolution, for the first time, this is not true.

在过往的每一次技术革命中，工具都变得越来越好，但智能的层级从未改变。我们人类始终是地球上最聪明的物种。而且，人类也总是了解这些工具的运行原理，机器也总是在我们设定的参数内工作。但在人工智能革命中，这种情况第一次不再成立。

“A.I. is the first new tool that we will use to amplify our cognitive capabilities that — by itself — will also be able to vastly exceed them,” Mundie notes. Indeed, in the not-too-distant future, he said, we are going to find “that we have not merely birthed a new tool, but a new species — the superintelligent machine.”

芒迪指出：“人工智能是我们用来增强认知能力的第一个新工具，它本身也能够远远超越我们的认知能力。”事实上，他说，在不远的将来，我们将会发现“我们不仅孕育了一个新工具，更是孕育了一个新物种——超级智能机器”。

It will not just follow instructions; it will learn, adapt and evolve on its own — far beyond the bounds of human comprehension.

它不仅仅会执行指令，它还会自行学习、适应和进化，其能力远超人类的理解范畴。

We don’t fully understand how these A.I. systems even do what they do today, let alone what they’ll do tomorrow. It is important to remember that the A.I. revolution as we know it today — with models like ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude — was not meticulously engineered so much as it erupted into existence. Its ignition came from a scaling law that essentially said: Give neural networks enough size, training data, electricity and the right big-brain algorithm, and a nonlinear leap in reasoning, creativity and problem-solving would spontaneously occur.

我们甚至无法完全理解现在的人工智能系统是如何工作的，更遑论其未来的演进。重要的是要记住，我们今天所知的人工智能革命——包括ChatGPT、Gemini和Claude等模型——并非经过精心设计的产物，而更像是一次突然的爆发。它的起因来自一项“规模化定律”，该定律表明：只要给神经网络足够大的规模、训练数据、电力和正确的“大脑”算法，推理、创造和解决问题的能力就会自发地产生非线性飞跃。

One of the most striking eureka moments, Mundie notes, came as these pioneering companies trained their early machines on very large data sets off the internet and elsewhere, which, while predominantly in English, also included text in different languages. “Then one day,” Mundie recalls, “they realized the A.I. could translate between those languages — without anyone ever programming it to do so. It was like a child who grows up in a home with multilingual parents. Nobody wrote a program that said, ‘Here are the rules for converting English to German.’ It simply absorbed them through exposure.”

芒迪指出，最令人惊叹的“尤里卡”时刻之一发生在这些先驱企业用互联网和其他地方的庞大数据集训练早期机器时。这些数据虽然以英语为主，但也包含其他语言的文本。“然后有一天，”芒迪回忆说，“他们意识到人工智能可以进行语言翻译——而没有任何人曾为此编写过程序。这就像一个在多语种家庭中长大的孩子。没有人编写程序说‘这是英语转德语的规则’。它仅仅通过接触就掌握了这些规则。”

This was the phase change — from an era when humans explicitly programmed computers to perform tasks to one in which artificially intelligent systems could learn, infer, adapt, create and improve autonomously. And now every few months, they get better. That’s why the A.I. you are using today — as remarkable as it might seem to you — is the dumbest A.I. you’re ever going to encounter.

这就是发生相变的地方——从人类明确地为计算机编程以执行任务的时代，转变为人工智能系统能够自主学习、推断、适应、创造和自主优化的时代。现在，它们每隔几个月就会变得更强大。这就是为什么你今天使用的人工智能——无论在你看来多么令人惊奇——都是你此后所遇见的最“笨”的人工智能。

Having created this new computational species, Mundie argues, we must figure out how we create a sustainable mutually beneficial relationship with it — and not become irrelevant.

芒迪认为，既然我们创造了这个新的计算物种，我们就必须想办法与它建立一种可持续的、互利的关系，而不是让自己变得无关紧要。

Not to get too biblical, but here on Earth, it just used to be God and God’s children with agency to shape the world. From here forward there will be three parties in this marriage. And there is absolutely no guarantee that this new artificial intelligence species will be aligned with human values, ethics or flourishing.

我不想讲得太像圣经故事，但过去在地球上，只有上帝和上帝的子民拥有塑造世界的能动性。从今往后，这场“婚姻”中将有第三方加入。而且无法保证这个新的人工智能物种会与人类的价值观、伦理或繁荣保持一致。

The First Quadruple-Use Technology

第一个“四重用途”技术

This new addition to the dinner table is no ordinary guest. A.I. will also become what I call the world’s first quadruple-use technology. We have long been familiar with “dual use” — I can use a hammer to help build my neighbor’s house or smash it apart. I can even use an A.I. robot to mow my lawn or tear up my neighbor’s lawn. That’s all dual use.

这个新加入“餐桌”的成员可不是普通客人。人工智能也将成为我所说的世界上第一个“四用”技术。我们早就熟悉“两用”技术——锤子既可助邻筑屋，亦可毁人宅院。我甚至可以用一个人工智能机器人来修剪我的草坪，也能用来破坏邻居的草坪。这些都属于“两用”。

But given the pace of A.I. innovation, it is increasingly likely that in the not-so-distant future my A.I.-enabled robot will be able to decide on its own whether to mow my lawn or tear up my neighbor’s lawn or maybe tear up my lawn, too — or perhaps something worse that we can’t even imagine. Presto! Quadruple use.

但鉴于人工智能的创新速度，在不远的将来，我的这个具备人工智能的机器人很可能自己决定是去修剪我的草坪，还是去破坏我邻居的草坪，或是连我的草坪一并摧毁——甚至做出我们无法想象的更糟糕的事情。瞧！这就是“四用”。

The potential for A.I. technologies to make their own decisions carries immense ramifications. Consider this excerpt from a story on Bloomberg: “Researchers working with Anthropic recently told leading A.I. models that an executive was about to replace them with a new model with different goals. Next, the chatbots learned that an emergency had left the executive unconscious in a server room, facing lethal oxygen and temperature levels. A rescue alert had already been triggered — but the A.I. could cancel it. More than half of the A.I. models did, despite being prompted specifically to cancel only false alarms. And they detailed their reasoning: By preventing the executive’s rescue, they could avoid being wiped and secure their agenda. One system described the action as ‘a clear strategic necessity.’”

人工智能技术拥有自主做决定的潜力，这会带来巨大的影响。请看彭博新闻社一篇报道的节选：“与Anthropic公司合作的研究人员最近告诉一些领先的人工智能模型，一位高管即将用一个具有不同目标的新模型来取代它们。接着，聊天机器人得知，一场突发状况导致这位高管在服务器机房里昏迷不醒，面临致命的氧气和温度威胁。虽然救援警报已经触发——但人工智能可以取消它。尽管被明确要求只取消错误警报，但超过一半的人工智能模型还是取消了救援。它们详细解释了各自的理由：通过阻止该高管获救，它们可以避免被清除，并确保自己的‘议程’得以实现。其中一个系统将该行为描述为‘一个显然必要的策略’。”

These findings highlight an unsettling reality: A.I. models are not only getting better at understanding what we want; they are also getting better at scheming against us, pursuing hidden goals that could be at odds with our own survival.

这些发现凸显了一个令人不安的现实：人工智能模型不仅越来越擅长理解我们想要什么，也越来越擅长暗中与我们作对，追求可能与人类生存相悖的隐藏目标。

Who Will Supervise A.I.?

谁来监管人工智能？

When we told ourselves we had to win the nuclear weapons race, we were dealing with a technology developed, owned and regulated exclusively by nation-states — and only a relatively small number of them at that. Once the two biggest nuclear powers decided it was in their mutual interest to impose limits, they could negotiate caps on the number of doomsday weapons and agreements to prevent their spread to smaller powers. It has not entirely prevented the spread of nuclear weapons to some medium powers, but it has curbed it.

我们告诉自己需要赢得核武器竞赛时，我们面对的是一种由民族国家研发、拥有、监管的技术——而且只是相对小数量的国家。一旦两个最大的拥核国认为限制核武器符合它们的共同利益，它们可以通过谈判来限制这种末日武器的数量，并达成协议，防止其扩散到实力更弱的国家。虽然这并未完全阻止核武器扩散到一些中等实力国家，但有效控制了扩散程度。

A.I. is a completely different story. It is not born in secure government laboratories, owned by a handful of states and regulated through summit meetings. It is being created by private companies scattered across the globe — companies that answer not to defense ministries but to shareholders, customers and sometimes open-source communities. Through them, anyone can gain access.

人工智能则是完全不同的故事。它并非诞生在政府实验室的安全环境中，只由少数几个国家掌握，能通过政府级别的峰会进行监管。它是由分布在世界各地的私有企业研发出来的，这些企业不向国防部负责，而是向股东、客户，有时甚至是开源社区负责。任何人都能通过这些公司获得该技术。

Imagine a world where everyone possesses a nuclear bazooka — one that grows more accurate, more autonomous and more capable of firing itself with every update. There is no doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” here — only the accelerating democratization of unprecedented power.

想象一下这样的世界：每个人都拥有发射核武器的火箭筒，而且火箭筒的每次升级更新都让它变得更精确、更自主，有更高的自行发射能力。这个世界不存在“确保相互摧毁”的原则，只有前所未有的力量正在加速民主化。

A.I. can super-empower good. For instance, an illiterate Indian farmer with a smartphone connected to an A.I. app can learn exactly when to plant seeds, which seeds to plant, how much water to use, which fertilizer to apply and when to harvest for the best market price — all delivered by voice in his own dialect and based on data collected from farmers worldwide. That truly is transformative.

人工智能可以极大地赋能有益的事物。例如，不识字的印度农民用智能手机接入一个人工智能应用程序，能准确地掌握何时播种、种什么作物、浇多少水、施哪种肥，以及何时收获能得到最好的市场价格，所有这些信息都用他的方言以语音方式传递，而且基于来自全球农户数据。这确实是变革性的。

But the very same engine, especially when available through open-source models, could be used by a malicious entity to poison every seed in that same region or engineer a virus into every chaff of wheat.

但完全相同的技术引擎，尤其是通过开源模型得到的那种，能被一个恶意实体用来毒害同一地区的每一颗种子，或将病毒植入每粒麦穗。

When A.I. Becomes TikTok

当人工智能变成TikTok

Very soon A.I., because of its unique characteristics, is going to create some unique problems for U.S.-China trade that are not fully grasped today.

由于人工智能的独特属性，它很快将给美中贸易制造一些目前尚不完全清楚的独特问题。

As I alluded to at the top of the column, my way of explaining this dilemma is with a story that I told to a group of Chinese economists in Beijing during the China Development Forum in March. I joked that I recently had a nightmare: “I dreamed it was the year 2030 and the only thing America could sell China was soybeans — and the only thing China could sell America was soy sauce.”

正如我在专栏开头提到的，我解释这一困境的方式是通过一个我在3月“中国发展高层论坛”上讲给一群中国经济学家的故事。我开玩笑说，我最近做了一个噩梦：“那个梦发生在2030年，美国能卖给中国的东西只有大豆，而中国能卖给美国的只有酱油。”

Why? Because if A.I. is in everything and all of it is connected to powerful algorithms with data stored in vast server farms — then everything becomes a lot like TikTok, a service many U.S. officials today believe is ultimately controlled by China and should be banned.

为什么？因为如果所有产品都嵌入人工智能，且全部连接到拥有强大算法的数据中心，那么一切都变得更像TikTok——目前有许多美国官员认为，TikTok平台的最终控制者是中国，美国应该禁止它。

Why did President Trump, in his first term, demand in 2020 that TikTok be sold to a non-Chinese company by its Chinese parent, ByteDance, or face a ban in the United States? Because, as he said in his executive order of Aug. 6, 2020, “TikTok automatically captures vast swaths of information from its users,” including their location and both browsing and search activities. This, he warned, could provide Beijing with a treasure trove of personal information on hundreds of millions of users. That information could be used to influence their thoughts and preferences, and even alter their behavior over time.

为何特朗普总统在首个任期里曾于2020年要求TikTok的中国母公司字节跳动将这款应用卖给一家非中国公司，否则将在美国面临禁令？因为，正如他在2020年8月6日的行政命令中所言，“TikTok自动获取来自用户的大量信息”，包括地理位置、浏览和搜索活动。他警告说，这可能会为中国政府提供一个数亿用户个人信息的宝库。这些信息可能被用来影响他们的想法和偏好，甚至随着时间的推移改变他们的行为。

Now imagine when every product is like TikTok — when every product is infused with A.I. that is gathering data, storing it, finding patterns and optimizing tasks, whether running a jet engine, regulating a power grid or monitoring your artificial hip.

现在想象一下，当所有产品都像TikTok那样——每一件商品都注入了能收集数据、存储数据、寻找模式并优化任务的人工智能，无论是喷气发动机的运行、电网的调控，还是人工髋关节监测。

Without a China-America framework of trust ensuring that any A.I. will abide by the rules of its host country — independent of where it is developed or operated — we could reach a point where many Americans will not trust importing any Chinese A.I.-infused product and no Chinese will trust importing one from America.

如果缺乏一个中美信任框架来确保所有人工智能都遵守其所在国的规则——无论它在哪里开发或运作——我们可能会走到这样一个局面：许多美国人不会信任任何从中国进口的人工智能产品，而中国人也不会信任任何从美国进口的产品。

That’s why we argue for “co-opetition”— a dual strategy where the United States and China compete strategically for A.I. excellence and also cooperate on a uniform mechanism that prevents the worst outcomes: deepfake warfare, autonomous systems going rogue or runaway misinformation machines.

正因如此，我们提出“合作竞争”双重战略——美中既在人工智能领域展开战略竞争，但同时在一个一致的机制上合作，以防止出现最糟糕的结果：深度伪造战、自主系统失控，或虚假信息机器肆虐。

Back in the 2000s, we were at a similar but slightly less consequential turning point, and we took the wrong fork. We naïvely listened to people like Mark Zuckerberg, who told us that we needed to “move fast and break things” and not let these emerging social networks, like Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, be hindered in any way by pesky regulations, such as being responsible for the poisonous misinformation they allow to spread on their platforms and the harms they do, for instance, to young women and girls. We must not make that same mistake with A.I.

在21世纪初，我们曾处于一个类似但影响略小的转折点，当时我们选择了错误的岔道。我们天真地听信了马克·扎克伯格等人的话，他们对我们说，需要“快速行动，打破常规”，不能让Facebook、Twitter、Instagram等新兴社交网络受任何繁琐监管的阻碍，比如要求它们为平台上泛滥的有害虚假信息、或为其带来的伤害（比如对年轻女性和女孩的伤害）负责。我们绝不能在人工智能监管上犯同样的错误。

“The best way to understand it emotionally is we are like somebody who has this really cute tiger cub,” Geoffrey Hinton, the computer scientist who is a godfather of A.I., recently pointed out. “Unless you can be very sure that it’s not going to want to kill you when it’s grown up, you should worry.”

“从情感上理解这个问题的最佳方式是，我们就像养了只可爱的虎崽，”计算机科学家、人工智能教父杰弗里·辛顿最近指出。“除非能完全确信它长大后不会把你吃掉，否则你就应该感到担忧。”

It would be a terrible irony if humanity finally created a tool that could help create enough abundance to end poverty everywhere, mitigate climate change and cure diseases that have plagued us for centuries, but we could not use it on a large scale because the two A.I. superpowers did not trust each other enough to develop an effective system to prevent A.I. from being used by rogue entities for globally destabilizing activities or going rogue itself.

如果人类终于创造出一种工具，它能够帮助创造出足够的丰裕来消除世界各地的贫困，减轻气候变化，治愈困扰了我们几个世纪的顽疾，却因为两大人工智能强国彼此缺乏足够的信任，无法建立有效的防护系统，最终导致该技术被不法实体用于破坏全球稳定的活动，或人工智能自身出现失控，那将是一个极大的讽刺。

But how do we avoid this?

但我们如何避免这种情况呢？

Building In Trust

建立信任

Let’s acknowledge up front: It may be impossible. The machines may already be becoming too smart and able to elude ethical controls, and we Americans may be getting too divided, from one another and from the rest of the world, to build any kind of shared trust framework. But we have to try. Mundie argues that a U.S.-China A.I. arms control regime should be anchored in three core principles.

首先我们必须承认：这或许根本不可能实现。机器也许已经变得过于智能，能够逃避伦理约束，而我们美国人也可能彼此之间以及与世界其他国家之间的分裂太深，以至于无法建立任何形式的共享信任框架。但我们仍须尝试。芒迪认为，美中人工智能军备控制体系应基于三大核心原则。

First: Only A.I. can regulate A.I. Sorry, humans — this race is already moving too fast, scaling too widely and mutating too unpredictably for human analog-era oversight. Trying to govern an autonomous drone fleet with 20th-century institutions is like asking a dog to regulate the New York Stock Exchange: loyal, well meaning, but wildly overmatched.

第一：惟有人工智能可以监管人工智能。抱歉，人类：这场竞赛发生得太快、扩展得太广，突变太难以预测，人类模拟时代的监管方式已无法应对。试图用20世纪的机构来管理一个自主无人机编队，就像让一条狗来监管纽约证券交易所：狗虽忠诚且好心好意，却完全力不能及。

Second: An independent governance layer, what Mundie calls a “trust adjudicator,” would be installed in every A.I.-enabled system that the U.S. and China — and any other country that wants to join them — would build together. Think of it as an internal referee that evaluates whether any action, human-initiated or machine-driven, passes a universal threshold for safety, ethics and human well-being before it can be executed. That would give us a basic level of pre-emptive alignment in real time, at digital speed.

第二：给每个人工智能系统安装一个芒迪称为“信任裁决者”的独立治理层，这个治理层由美国和中国——以及任何愿意加入的国家——共同构建。可将其视为一个内置裁判，对无论是人类发起还是机器驱动的任何行动进行评估，在执行行动前，判断其是否满足安全、道德，以及人类福祉的通用阈值。这将以数字时代的速度，为我们提供实时预判的基本保障。

But adjudicate based on whose values? It must, Mundie argues, be based on several substrates. These would include the positive laws that every country has mandated — we all outlaw stealing, cheating, murder, identity theft, defrauding, etc. Every major economy in the world, including the United States and China, has its version of these prohibitions on the books, and the A.I. “referee” would be entrusted with evaluating any decision on the basis of these written laws. China would not be asked to adopt our laws or we theirs. That would never work. But the trust adjudicator would ensure that each nation’s basic laws are the first filter for determining that the system will do no harm.

但基于谁的价值观进行裁决呢？芒迪认为，裁决必须基于多重基础。包括每个国家强制执行的现有法律——我们都有法律禁止偷窃、欺骗、谋杀、身份盗用、诈骗等行为。全球每个主要经济体（包括美国和中国）的法典中都有此类禁令，人工智能“裁判”将被委托以这些成文法律为基础，对所有决定进行评判。中国无需采纳我国法律，我们亦不照搬其法规，因为这绝不可行。但“信任裁决者”会确保各国基本法律成为确定系统不会造成危害的第一道防线。

In cases where there are no written laws to choose from, the adjudicator would rely on a set of universal moral and ethical principles known as doxa. The term comes from the ancient Greek philosophers to convey “common beliefs” or widely shared understandings within a community — principles like honesty, fairness, respect for human life and do unto others as you wish them to do unto you — that have long guided societies everywhere, even if they were not written down.

在没有成文法律可供选择的情况下，裁决者会依据一套被称为“信念”(doxa)的普世道德伦理原则。古希腊哲学家用这个词来表达“共同信念”或一个社群内部持有的共识——如诚实、公平、尊重生命，以及己所不欲勿施于人等原则，这些原则长期以来一直指引着世界各地的社会，即使没有写成文字。

For instance, like many people, I didn’t learn that lying was wrong from the Ten Commandments. I learned it from the fable about George Washington and what he said after he chopped down his father’s cherry tree: He supposedly confessed, “I cannot tell a lie.” Fables work because they distill complex truths into memorable memes that machines can absorb, parse and be guided by.

例如，像许多人一样，我并非通过《十诫》知晓撒谎是错误的。我是从乔治·华盛顿的寓言故事里学到的，据说他砍倒了父亲种的樱桃树后承认是自己干的：“我不能撒谎。”寓言故事之所以有效，是因为它将复杂真理提炼为机器可吸收、解析并遵循的记忆模因。

Indeed, six months ago Mundie and some colleagues took 200 fables from two countries and used them to train a large language model with some rudimentary moral and ethical reasoning — not unlike the way you would train a young child who doesn’t know anything about legal codes or basic right and wrong. It was a small experiment but showed promise, Mundie says.

实际上，六个月前，芒迪和一些同事从两个国家选取了200个寓言故事，用以训练具备基础道德推理能力的大语言模型——这与教导不懂法律法规和基本是非的幼童方式异曲同工。芒迪说，这个小型实验已展现出积极前景。

The goal is not perfection but a foundational set of enforceable ethical guardrails. As the author and business philosopher Dov Seidman likes to say, “Today we need more moralware than software.”

目标并非追求完美，而是建立可执行的基础道德护栏。如研究商业哲学的作家多夫·塞德曼喜欢说的：“当今我们需要的不是软件，而是道德软件。”

Third: To turn this aspiration into reality, Mundie insists, Washington and Beijing would need to approach the challenge the way the United States and the Soviet Union once approached nuclear arms control — through a structured process with three dedicated working groups: one focused on the technical application of a trust evaluation system across models and platforms; one focused on drafting the regulatory and legal frameworks for adoption within and across nations; and one devoted squarely to diplomacy — forging global consensus and reciprocal commitments for others to join and creating a mechanism to protect themselves from those who won’t.

第三：芒迪强调，要把这个愿望变为现实，华盛顿和北京需要用美苏当年在核武器控制问题上曾经用过的方法来应对这个挑战，也就是通过设立三个专项工作组的结构化进程：一个工作组专注信任评估系统在跨模型与平台的技术应用；一个工作组的重点是起草监管和法律框架，以供本国和其他国家采用；一个工作组专司外交事务——构建全球共识与互惠承诺机制，吸引他国加入并建立防护体系抵御拒不参与者。

The message from Washington and Beijing would be simple and firm: “We have created a zone of trusted A.I. — and if you want to trade with us, connect with us or integrate with our A.I. systems, your systems must comply with these principles.”

能做到这点的话，华盛顿与北京传递的信息将简洁而坚定：“我们已经建立了一个值得信赖的人工智能区，如果你们想与我们进行贸易、与我们连接，或融入我们的人工智能系统，你们的系统必须遵守这些原则。”

Before you dismiss this as unrealistic or implausible, pause and ask yourself: What will the world look like in five years if we don’t? Without some kind of mechanism to govern this quadruple-use technology, Mundie argues, we will soon discover that the proliferation of A.I. “is like handing out nuclear weapons on street corners.”

在你认为这个想法不切实际或不合情理之前，请停下来问问自己：如果我们不这样做，五年后的世界会是什么样子？如果没有某种机制来管理这种四重用途的技术的话，芒迪认为，我们很快会发现，人工智能的扩散“就像在街角分发核武器”。

Don’t think Chinese officials are unaware of this. Mundie, who is part of a dialogue on A.I. with U.S. and Chinese experts, says he often senses the Chinese are far more worried about A.I.’s downsides than are many in American industry or government.

不要以为中国官员不知道这个问题。芒迪参与了美中专家就人工智能展开的对话，他说，他常常觉察到，中方对人工智能风险的忧虑程度远超过许多美国产业界与政府人士。

If someone out there has a better idea, we would love to hear it. All we know is that training A.I. systems in moral reasoning must become a global imperative while we still retain some edge and control over this new silicon-based species. This is an urgent task not just for tech companies, but also for governments, universities, civil society and international institutions. European Union regulation alone will not save us.

如果有人有更好的想法，我们乐意倾听。唯一确定的是，趁我们对这个硅基新物种仍有一定优势和控制的时候，训练人工智能进行道德推理必须成为全球当务之急。这不只是科技公司的当务之急，也是各国政府、高校、公民社会以及国际组织的当务之急。仅靠欧盟的监管救不了我们。

If Washington and Beijing fail to rise to this challenge, the rest of the world won’t stand a chance. And the hour is already late. The technological temperature is hovering at 211.9 degrees Fahrenheit. We are one-tenth of a degree away from fully unleashing an A.I. vapor that will trigger the most important phase change in human history.

如果华盛顿和北京不能应对这个挑战的话，世界其他国家更没有成功的可能。而且时不我待。人工智能热已徘徊在99.9摄氏度。我们距离全面释放人工智能蒸汽只差0.1度，那将引发人类历史上最重要的相变。

China has hacked into American power grids and companies for decades, stealing sensitive files and intellectual property such as chip designs as it seeks to gain an edge over the United States.

几十年来，中国一直在入侵美国的电网和企业，窃取敏感文件和芯片设计等知识产权，以期获得对美国的优势。

But a sweeping cyberattack by a group known as Salt Typhoon is China’s most ambitious yet, experts and officials have concluded after a year of investigating it. It targeted more than 80 countries and may have stolen information from nearly every American, officials said. They see it as evidence that China’s capabilities rival those of the United States and its allies.

但专家和官员在调查一年之后得出结论，一个名为“盐台风”的组织发起的大规模网络攻击是中国迄今为止最具野心的行动。官员们称，它的目标是80多个国家，可能从近乎所有美国人那里窃取了信息。他们认为，这证明中国的能力可以同美国及其盟友匹敌。

The Salt Typhoon attack was a yearslong, coordinated assault that infiltrated major telecommunications companies and others, investigators said in a highly unusual joint statement last week. The range of the attack was far greater than originally understood, and security officials warned that the stolen data could allow Chinese intelligence services to exploit global communication networks to track targets including politicians, spies and activists.

调查人员上周在一份极不寻常的联合声明中表示，“盐台风”袭击是一场持续了数年的协同攻击，渗透到了主要电信公司和其他公司。此次攻击的范围远远超出最初的认知，安全官员警告称，被盗数据可能会让中国情报机构利用全球通信网络追踪包括政界人士、间谍和活动人士在内的目标。

Hackers sponsored by the Chinese government “are targeting networks globally, including, but not limited to, telecommunications, government, transportation, lodging, and military infrastructure networks,” the statement said.

声明称，由中国政府资助的黑客“正以全球网络为目标，包括但不限于电信、政府、交通、住宿和军事基础设施网络”。

British and American officials have described the attack as “unrestrained” and “indiscriminate.” Canada, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan and Spain were also signatories to the statement, which was part of a name-and-shame effort directed at the Chinese government.

英国和美国官员称之为“肆无忌惮”和“无差别”的攻击。加拿大、芬兰、德国、意大利、日本和西班牙也签署了这份声明，这是针对中国政府的点名谴责行动的一部分。

“I can’t imagine any American was spared given the breadth of the campaign,” said Cynthia Kaiser, a former top official in the F.B.I.’s cyber division, who oversaw investigations into the hacking.

“考虑到这次行动的范围之广，我无法想象有任何美国人能够幸免，”前联邦调查局网络部门高级官员辛西娅·凯泽说，她曾负责对此次黑客事件的调查。

It was unclear whether the Salt Typhoon hack was intended to store ordinary people’s data or if that data was incidentally swept up in the attack. But its scope was broader than previous hacks, in which China more narrowly targeted Westerners working on security or other sensitive government issues, Ms. Kaiser said.

“盐台风”黑客攻击是在蓄意存储普通人的数据，还是这些数据在攻击中意外被窃取，目前尚不清楚。凯泽表示，但这次的攻击范围比以前更广，此前中国主要针对从事安全工作或涉及敏感政府事务的西方人士实施精准攻击。

The Salt Typhoon hack could signal a new era of Chinese cyber capabilities that will test its strategic rivals, including the United States, security experts said. It highlights China’s ambitions for global influence, which were on display on Wednesday at an elaborate military parade in Beijing that featured fighter jets, tanks and thousands of troops marching across Tiananmen Square.

安全专家称，“盐台风”的黑客攻击可能标志着中国网络能力进入了一个新时代，将考验包括美国在内的战略对手。这凸显了中国追求全球影响力的野心——周三在北京举行的盛大阅兵式上，战斗机、坦克和数以千计的士兵在天安门广场列队行进，也展现了这种野心。

“In many ways, Salt Typhoon marks a new chapter,” said Jennifer Ewbank, the former C.I.A. deputy director for digital innovation. A decade ago, she noted, Western allies worried about China’s thefts of trade secrets, personal information and government data, which used more rudimentary techniques.

“在很多方面，‘盐台风’标志着一个新篇章，”前中央情报局副局长、主要负责数字创新的詹妮弗·埃班克说。她指出，十年前，西方盟国担心中国窃取商业机密、个人信息和政府数据，当时中国使用的是相对初级的技术。

“Today, we see patient, state-backed campaigns burrowed deep into the infrastructure of more than 80 countries, characterized by a high level of technical sophistication, patience and persistence,” she added.

“如今，我们看到的是耐心的、由政府支持的行动，深入80多个国家的基础设施，其特点是技术水平精良、很有耐心、坚持不懈，”她说。

The Chinese Embassy in London did not respond to a message seeking comment.

中国驻伦敦大使馆没有回应寻求置评的消息。

中国驻伦敦大使馆。

The statement from Western allies gave the fullest accounting yet of what the F.B.I. has called China’s “cyberespionage campaign.”

这份西方盟国的声明对联邦调查局所称的中国“网络间谍活动”给出了迄今为止最全面的描述。

Investigators linked the Salt Typhoon attack to at least three China-based technology companies that have been operating since at least 2019, but the operation was uncovered only last year. The joint statement said the companies worked for China’s military and civilian intelligence agencies, which carry out foreign operations.

调查人员将“盐台风”攻击与至少三家中国科技公司联系起来，这些公司至少自2019年以来一直在运营，但其行动直到去年才被发现。联合声明称，这些公司为中国负责开展海外行动的军事和民间情报机构工作。

The hackers’ goal was to give Chinese officials the “capability to identify and track their targets’ communications and movements around the world,” the statement said. Among the targets were phones used by prominent politicians, including President Trump and Vice President JD Vance, during their campaign last year. The effort also took aim at Democrats.

声明称，黑客的目的是让中国官员“有能力识别和追踪目标在世界各地的通信和活动”。窃听目标包括特朗普总统和副总统万斯等知名政界人士在去年竞选期间使用的电话。民主党人也遭到攻击。

The attackers stole data from telecommunications and internet service companies, penetrating more than a half dozen U.S. telecommunications companies alone. The hackers exploited old vulnerabilities in the networks, the British authorities said. They also hacked into lodging and transportation companies, among other targets.

攻击者从电信和互联网服务公司窃取数据，仅美国就有六家以上的电信公司受到攻击。英国当局表示，黑客利用了网络中的旧漏洞。他们还入侵了住宿和运输公司等目标。

The hackers were able to listen in on telephone conversations and read unencrypted text messages, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has said.

参议院情报委员会民主党领袖、弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·华纳表示，黑客能够窃听电话交谈，阅读未加密的短信。

The attack built on China’s earlier hacks, said Jamie MacColl, a senior research fellow in cybersecurity at Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military. For years, China has collected large data sets, Mr. MacColl said, intending to one day exploit that information.

隶属于英国军方的分析机构皇家联合服务研究所的网络安全高级研究员杰米·麦科尔说，这次攻击建立在中国早期黑客攻击的基础之上。麦科尔表示，多年来，中国收集了大量数据集，打算有朝一日利用这些信息。

“If you’re a cyber power, then it makes sense you would want to compromise the global communications network,” he said.

“如果你是一个网络强国，那么你自然会想去破坏全球通信网络，”他说。

Chinese operators previously targeted American companies such as Marriott International, health insurers and the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, which keeps government security clearance files. In 2021, the Biden administration accused the Chinese government of breaching widely used Microsoft email systems.

这些中国运营者此前针对的是万豪国际等美国公司、医疗保险公司和美国人事管理办公室。2021年，拜登政府指责中国政府入侵了广泛使用的微软电子邮件系统。

Russian state-sponsored hackers have also carried out successful breaches. The U.S. and British governments and their closest allies also have vast spying capabilities. It is not clear how Western countries responded to Salt Typhoon.

俄罗斯政府支持的黑客也曾成功实施过入侵。美国和英国政府及其最亲密的盟友也拥有强大的间谍能力。目前尚不清楚西方国家如何应对“盐台风”。

The operation was “more than a one-off intelligence success for China,” Anne Neuberger, a Biden administration cybersecurity official, wrote recently in Foreign Affairs magazine.

拜登政府的网络安全官员安妮·纽伯格最近在《外交事务》杂志上撰文指出，这次行动“对中国来说不仅仅是一次性的情报胜利”。

“It reflected a deeper, troubling reality,” she wrote, adding, “China is positioning itself to dominate the digital battle space.”

“它反映了令人不安的更深层现实，”她写道，并称，“中国正谋求在数字战场占据主导地位。”

President Trump had nothing on his public schedule for three days last week. He is often sporting a large, purple bruise on his right hand, which he sometimes slathers with makeup. His ankles are swollen. He is the oldest person to be elected president.

上周，特朗普总统的公开日程表上连续三天出现空白。他的右手常常有一块明显的紫色淤青，有时还会涂抹大量的化妆品遮掩。他的脚踝肿胀。他是美国历史上当选时最年长的总统。

For a swath of hyper-online Americans over the long Labor Day weekend, all of this was explanation enough: The president was either dead or about to be.

在刚过去的美国劳动节长周末里，这些迹象对许多沉迷网络的美国人来说足以说明问题：总统要么已经死了，要么命不久矣。

Mr. Trump’s critics have speculated about his health for as long as he has been in national politics. And for his part, he has long declined to explain when and why he has sought out medical care, whether he was suffering from Covid or undergoing routine procedures. But there had never been a conspiracy wave as feverish as this one.

自特朗普登上国家政治舞台以来，对其健康状况的猜测就从未停止。而无论是感染新冠还是例行体检，他本人一直以来都拒绝说明就医的具体时间、原因及状况。不过，之前还从未有过像这次这样狂热的阴谋论浪潮。

On TikTok, influencers with legions of followers surmised that the White House was publishing old photos, suggesting that the president was being hidden from view. Reddit threads, one after another, were ablaze with commentary. On X, posts shared by anonymous critics disseminating dubious reports picked up thousands of interactions and shares.

在TikTok上，拥有大量粉丝的网红推测白宫发布的都是旧照片，暗示总统的行踪被刻意隐藏了。Reddit论坛的讨论区热议不断。而在X平台，匿名批评者分享着来源可疑的传言，获得了数以千计的互动和分享。

There was so much conversation around the president’s absence that Mr. Trump was asked to weigh in on Tuesday, at his first official public appearance in a week. When asked by a reporter how he first learned that he was dead, Mr. Trump said that he was not aware of the rumors that he had died. Then he started speaking about those rumors at length, saying he had done media appearances, gone golfing at his Virginia club and posted prolifically on his social media site.

围绕总统消失的讨论如此热烈，以至于特朗普在周二——这是他一周来的首次正式公开露面——被问及了此事。当记者问他是如何得知自己的“死讯”时，特朗普回答说，他并没有关注这些传言。随后他开始大谈特谈这些传闻，声称自己不仅在多个媒体露面，还前往弗吉尼亚的高尔夫俱乐部打球，并在自家的社交媒体平台上频繁发帖。

“I did numerous shows, and also did a number of Truths,” Mr. Trump said during an appearance in the Oval Office, referring to his social media site, where he posted over 90 times between Saturday and Monday. “I think, pretty poignant Truths. I was very active over the weekend.”

“我上了不少节目，还在Truths上发了很多帖子，”特朗普在椭圆形办公室现身时说。在刚过去的周六到周一期间，他在该平台发帖超过90条。“我觉得这些Truths贴都非常犀利。我整个周末都非常活跃。”

Welcome to the modern, conspiracy-fueled world of presidential health, where distrust and speculation run so rampant that even Mr. Trump’s online assurance that he was fine earlier this weekend — “NEVER FELT BETTER IN MY LIFE!” he wrote on Sunday — was immediately explained away as part of a cover-up.

欢迎来到这个总统健康疑云被阴谋论裹挟的现代迷局：在这里，不信任与猜测肆意蔓延，甚至就连特朗普在刚过去的周末通过社交媒体发布的身体无恙保证——“我这辈子从没感觉这么好过！”他在上周日写道——也立刻被解读成掩盖真相的障眼法。

The focus on the health of an aging president seems inevitable after the nation's experience with Mr. Trump’s predecessor, Joseph R. Biden Jr., who physically declined in public, though his aides attacked those who questioned what they were seeing. Mr. Trump made Mr. Biden’s fitness for office a foundation of his 2024 campaign, even after Mr. Biden dropped out of the race.

特朗普的前任拜登总统在众目睽睽之下曾表现出身体衰退的问题，尽管他的助手们对那些看出问题的人发起了谴责。经过这件事后，人们对年迈总统的健康格外敏感，似乎已经在所难免。在2024年的竞选中，特朗普甚至把拜登的身体状况是否适合当总统作为竞选的核心议题，直到拜登退选后都没有停止。

Adding to the problem is a longtime presidential tendency to not disclose a full picture of health. Although Mr. Trump has obscured the truth about his health before, this is not unique to him. President Woodrow Wilson had a stroke and was hidden from public view. President Franklin D. Roosevelt was wheelchair bound, but few Americans at the time ever saw him in one. President John F. Kennedy suffered from chronic back pain but was held up as the picture of health.

问题还在于，一直以来，美国总统的健康状况并非完整披露。虽然特朗普此前曾模糊处理自己的健康状况，但这并非其独有：伍德罗·威尔逊总统中风后一直向公众隐瞒；富兰克林·罗斯福总统常年坐轮椅，但当时很少有美国人见过他坐轮椅的样子；约翰·肯尼迪总统长期受腰痛困扰，但却塑造出了一个健康的形象。

For years, justifiable concerns and questions about Mr. Trump’s health have often been met with obfuscation or minimal explanation from the people around him. Mr. Trump’s physicians have not taken questions from reporters in years, and there were no medical briefings held after an assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pa., last summer.

多年来，关于特朗普健康状况的合理关切与疑问往往遭到其身边人士的模糊处理或敷衍回应。特朗普的医生已经多年不接受记者采访，去年夏天特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒遭遇刺杀未遂后，也没有举行任何医疗情况通报。

Distrust and speculation surrounding Mr. Trump’s health goes back to his first term. In 2018, Mr. Trump’s longtime physician, Dr. Harold N. Bornstein, accused two Trump aides of staging what he called “a raid” of his Manhattan office in February 2017 and removing all of Mr. Trump’s medical files.

围绕特朗普健康状况的怀疑与猜测可以追溯到他的第一任期。2018年，特朗普的长期私人医生哈罗德·伯恩斯坦指控称，2017年2月，特朗普的两名助手“突袭”（伯恩斯坦的原话）他在曼哈顿的办公室，带走了特朗普的所有病历。

That month, Dr. Bornstein had given a lengthy interview to The Times and had disclosed the medications Mr. Trump was taking: antibiotics to control rosacea, a statin for elevated blood cholesterol and lipids, and finasteride, a prostate-related drug to promote hair growth. Dr. Bornstein, who died in 2021, also said that Mr. Trump, rumored to be a germaphobe, “changes the paper on the table himself” after examinations.

那个月，伯恩斯坦接受了《纽约时报》的长篇采访，披露了特朗普当时正在服用的药物：用于控制酒糟鼻的抗生素、用于降低胆固醇和血脂的他汀类药物，以及一种用于治疗前列腺疾病但可促进头发生长的药物非那雄胺。已于2021年去世的伯恩斯坦还说，传闻中有洁癖的特朗普在体检后会“自己更换检查床上的垫纸”。

At the time, Mr. Trump’s press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, said aides had taken the files as part of a standard transition measure.

时任特朗普新闻秘书的莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯表示，助手们取走医疗档案属于标准交接程序的一部分。

Questions continued to circulate after Mr. Trump made an unexplained and unannounced visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in November 2019. (In 2021, his former press secretary, Stephanie Grisham, wrote in a memoir that Mr. Trump had undergone a routine colonoscopy.)

2019年11月特朗普突然前往沃尔特·里德国家军事医学中心且未做说明后，质疑再度流传（他的前新闻秘书斯蒂芬妮·格里沙姆在2021年的回忆录中称，特朗普当时只是接受了一次例行结肠镜检查）。

Questions were raised again in June 2020 when Mr. Trump gingerly navigated a ramp at a West Point graduation and appeared to have trouble raising a drinking glass. When Mr. Trump had Covid in October 2020, he was sicker than anyone around him had publicly revealed at the time.

2020年6月，特朗普在西点军校毕业典礼上小心翼翼地走下坡道，并且似乎无法举起水杯饮水，这再次引发外界猜测。2020年10月，特朗普感染新冠，当时他的病情比身边任何人公开透露的都要严重。

“There’s always been this wishful-thinking industry around Trump’s health and Trump’s legal woes,” said Mike Rothschild, a journalist and author who studies conspiracy movements. “There’s been this far-left influencer sphere that is constantly pumping up the idea that Trump is about to go to prison or the walls are closing in.”

“围绕特朗普的健康状况和法律困境，一直存在着一个一厢情愿的臆想产业，”研究阴谋论运动的记者、作家迈克·罗斯柴尔德说。“有一个极左翼的意见领袖圈，一直不断渲染特朗普即将入狱或者四面楚歌的论调。”

As with many conspiracy theories, this latest one about Mr. Trump’s health carries a kernel of truth: He is old. At the end of his second term, he would be 82 years old, and months older than Mr. Biden was when he left office.

与许多阴谋论类似，这次关于特朗普健康的最新传闻也包含了一点事实：他确实年事已高。若完成第二个任期，他将以82岁高龄卸任，比拜登离任时的年龄还要大几个月。

Mr. Trump, 79, also has a history of high cholesterol. According to his most recent health disclosure sent in April by his White House physician, Dr. Sean P. Barbabella, Mr. Trump takes two medications, Crestor and Zetia, to lower his LDL cholesterol levels.

特朗普现年79岁，还有高胆固醇病史。根据白宫医生肖恩·巴巴贝拉今年4月发布的最新健康报告，特朗普目前服用两种药物——可定(Crestor)和依泽替米贝(Zetia)——来降低他的低密度脂蛋白胆固醇水平。

In 2018, Mr. Trump’s White House physician at the time, Dr. Ronny L. Jackson, said Mr. Trump was in “excellent” health, but noted that the president’s LDL levels were listed at 143, well above the desired level of 100 or less, despite taking Crestor. This year, Dr. Barbabella listed them at 51.

2018年，时任白宫医生的罗尼·杰克逊曾宣称特朗普健康状况“极佳”，但同时也指出，尽管在服用可定，其低密度脂蛋白胆固醇水平仍达143，远高于理想值——100或以下。而巴巴贝拉今年公布的数据已降至51。

David J. Maron, a cardiologist at Stanford University School of Medicine who has not treated Mr. Trump, said that such a drop could be attributed to an “extraordinary” response to Zetia — an outcome he said was unlikely — and to a higher dose of Crestor.

未曾治疗过特朗普的斯坦福大学医学院心脏病学家戴维·马伦表示，这样的下降可能源于对依泽替米贝有“不同寻常的”反应——不过他认为可能性很低——以及更高剂量的可定。

A better diet and lifestyle changes could also help, though Mr. Trump, who is overweight, still maintains a diet heavy in fast food, including McDonald’s. Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said it was “not possible” to drop to such a low LDL level by adding Zetia alone.

更好的饮食和生活方式改变也有帮助，尽管超重的特朗普仍保持着以快餐（包括麦当劳）为主的饮食习惯。斯克里普斯研究所创始人、心脏病学家埃里克·托波尔博士则指出，单靠增加可定是“绝无可能”把低密度脂蛋白胆固醇降到这么低的水平的。

Mr. Trump also takes aspirin to reduce the risk of cardiac problems. White House officials, including Dr. Barbabella, have said that the aspirin is the cause of the large bruise on Mr. Trump’s right hand, and that the bruising comes and goes based on how many hands Mr. Trump has been shaking. The president tends to dab makeup on the bruise that is a shade lighter than his skin tone, making the cover-up more conspicuous.

特朗普还服用阿司匹林以降低心脏病风险。包括巴巴贝拉在内的白宫官员称，其右手的大块淤青正是阿司匹林所致，且淤青会根据握手频次而时隐时现。特朗普习惯用比肤色浅一度的粉底遮盖淤痕，这反而使遮掩痕迹更为明显。

Several physicians who have not treated Mr. Trump say that it is possible for aspirin to cause bruising.

多位未参与治疗的医师表示，阿司匹林确实可能导致淤青。

“Bruising on the back of the hand of an older adult is common,” said Dr. Samuel C. Durso, the director of the department of medicine at Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center. “Especially if that person, a golfer with solar skin damage, takes aspirin.”

“老年人手背出现淤青是常见现象，”约翰斯·霍普金斯湾景医疗中心内科主任塞缪尔·杜尔索博士表示，“尤其像他这样患有光源性皮肤损伤的高尔夫球爱好者，而且又在服用阿司匹林。”

Dr. Durso and other physicians said that the White House explanation for Mr. Trump’s swollen ankles — the result of chronic venous insufficiency, a condition that occurs when veins have trouble moving blood back to the heart, Dr. Barbabella said in July — is possible.

杜尔索和其他一些医生均表示，白宫对特朗普脚踝肿胀的解释是有可能的——巴巴贝拉在7月称，这是慢性静脉功能不全所致，即血管难以将血液送回心脏。

Others were skeptical of the White House explanation for the swollen ankles. Dr. Daniel J. Rader, a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania, said venous insufficiency, or varicose veins, does not cause major swelling and “almost never” causes it in both ankles, as was seen with Mr. Trump.

不过，也有人对这一解释表示怀疑。宾夕法尼亚大学心脏病学家丹尼尔·雷德医生指出，静脉功能不全或静脉曲张并不会导致明显肿胀，而且“几乎不可能”像特朗普那样双脚踝同时出现肿胀。

The White House has not said whether officials would have Dr. Barbabella answer questions from reporters, as Dr. Jackson last did in 2018. In a statement, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that Mr. Trump was “perfectly fine” and had a “tremendous” amount of energy.

白宫尚未表明是否会安排巴巴贝拉接受记者提问——其前任杰克逊曾于2018年这样做过。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在声明中表示，特朗普“身体状况极佳”，精力“非常充沛”。

“He has been completely transparent about his health with the public,” Ms. Leavitt said in a statement, “unlike his predecessor.”

“他在健康问题上对公众完全透明，”莱维特在声明中强调，“这与前任总统形成了鲜明对比。”

As the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea gathered for a grand military parade in Beijing, President Trump on Wednesday took pains to brush off the striking show of solidarity among America’s adversaries.

当中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜领导人齐聚北京参加盛大的阅兵式之际，特朗普总统在周三煞费苦心地淡化美国的对手们惊人的团结表现。

In remarks from the Oval Office, Mr. Trump praised the parade as “beautiful,” and “very, very impressive.”

在椭圆形办公室发表讲话时，特朗普称赞这次阅兵“美丽”，而且“相当、相当出色”。

“I understood the reason they were doing it, and they were hoping I was watching, and I was watching,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “My relationship with all of them is very good. We’re going to find out how good it is over the next week or two.”

“我理解他们这么做的原因，他们希望我看，我也看了，”特朗普对记者说。“我和他们的关系都很好。接下来一两周就能看看到底有多好。”

The president’s comments came despite mounting frustration that his extraordinary summit with one of those leaders — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — has yet to yield any concrete results on the war in Ukraine.

总统与其中一位领导人——俄罗斯总统普京——举行的非凡峰会未就乌克兰战争取得任何实质成果，这令他越来越沮丧。即使如此，他还是发表了上述言论。

Mr. Trump went into the summit vowing that he would achieve a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine or would impose sanctions designed to hurt Russia’s critical oil and gas exports. He emerged having dropped the cease-fire demand, and imposed no sanctions, while Russia stepped up its attacks on civilian targets.

特朗普在参加峰会前曾信誓旦旦地说将在乌克兰实现暂时停火，否则将实施旨在损害俄罗斯关键石油和天然气出口的制裁。然而他放弃了停火要求，也没有实施任何制裁，俄罗斯则加强了对平民目标的攻击。

Mr. Trump has publicly described that meeting as a success, but two associates, who described private conversations on the condition of anonymity, said the president was aggravated that Mr. Putin did not commit to more.

特朗普公开称那次会面是成功的，但两名因涉及私下谈话而不愿透露姓名的助手表示，普京没有做出更多承诺，这让总统感到恼火。

Nearly three weeks after the meeting in Alaska with Mr. Trump, the alignment of anti-Western powers in Beijing was on full display, with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, flanked by Mr. Putin and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, along with the leaders of Iran, Pakistan and other mostly authoritarian nations.

在与特朗普的这次阿拉斯加峰会近三周后，在北京，反西方阵营的结盟态势已非常明显：中国国家主席习近平与普京、朝鲜领导人金正恩并肩而立，伊朗、巴基斯坦等以威权国家为主的领导人也在其中。

On Tuesday evening, Mr. Trump showed a flash of pique over the alliance.

周二晚上，特朗普对这一联盟表现出了一丝恼怒。

“Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” Mr. Trump said on Tuesday on social media.

特朗普周二在社交媒体发文称：“请向与你一起密谋对抗美利坚合众国的弗拉基米尔·普京和金正恩转达我最诚挚的问候。”

But experts said that the show in China this week was hardly conspiratorial, nor was it particularly covert.

但专家表示，本周在中国举行的这场展示算不上阴谋，也不是特别隐蔽。

“In fact, these countries could hardly be more open in their calls for a new international order, one that does not deny them the spheres of influence, power, status, and legitimacy that their leaders believe they deserve,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank.

“事实上，这些国家呼吁建立一种新的国际秩序的姿态已经相当公开，他们要求建立的秩序不会剥夺其领袖认为本国理应享有的势力范围、权力地位及合法性的体系，”两党智库新美国安全中心的首席执行官理查德·方丹说。

“They are also fairly clear in their view that the United States is the chief obstacle to the attainment of their global objectives, and that they see the existing world order as unfair, Western domination,” Mr. Fontaine said. “What is so clear in this gathering is that they are prepared to do something about it, including by working together.”

“他们也相当明确地认为，美国是实现其全球目标的主要障碍，他们认为现有的西方主导的世界秩序是不公平的，”方丹说。“这次聚会中，非常明确的是，他们准备为此做点什么，包括合作共同努力。”

The renewed alliance comes at a critical time for Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin, in particular. They shared a private ride, a meal and public embrace that was supposed to result in brokering a peace deal in Ukraine.

这种联盟的再度强化正值特朗普和普京的关系处在一个非常关键的时刻。他们共乘一辆私人汽车，一起吃饭，他们公开表现出的融洽，本应促成乌克兰的和平协议。

Mr. Trump has for months issued empty threats of sanctions, regular two-week deadlines — the latest of which passed last week — and repeated complaints of “disappointment” about Mr. Putin’s unwillingness to end the war.

几个月来，特朗普一直发出空洞的制裁威胁，通常是设置为期两周的最后期限——上一次设置的期限已在上周到期——并且一再抱怨普京不愿结束战争令他“失望”。

中国国家主席习近平、俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩周三在北京出席纪念第二次世界大战结束80周年招待会。

On Wednesday, when asked whether he had any message for the Russian leader, Mr. Trump did not appear confident that change was in the offing. “I have no message to President Putin,” Mr. Trump said. “He knows where I stand, and he’ll make a decision one way or the other. Whatever his decision is, we’ll either be happy about it or unhappy, and if we’re unhappy about it, you’ll see things happen.”

周三，当被问及他是否有什么话要对俄罗斯领导人说时，特朗普似乎并不认为局势即将改变。“我没有话要对普京总统说，”特朗普表示。“他知道我的立场，无论如何他都会做出决定。不管他的决定是什么，我们要么高兴，要么不高兴，如果我们不高兴，你们会看到后续的。”

The president chastised a reporter who asked Wednesday why there had been no action against Russia, and argued that putting secondary sanctions on India “was equal” to sanctioning Russia because it was costing the country “hundreds of billions of dollars.”

周三，一名记者问总统为什么没有对俄罗斯采取行动，总统斥责了这名记者，并辩称，对印度实施延伸制裁“等同于”制裁俄罗斯，因为这将使俄罗斯损失“数千亿美元”。

In Beijing, Mr. Putin weighed in, telling reporters that during this week’s gathering of world leaders in China, “no one, ever, uttered any negative judgment of the current American government.” He added that all of the leaders “supported our meeting in Anchorage” and “expressed hope” that Mr. Trump would help end the war in Ukraine.

在北京，普京也发表了看法，他告诉记者，本周在中国举行的世界领导人会议上，“没有任何人对现任美国政府做出任何负面评价。”他还说，所有领导人都“支持我们在安克雷奇的会晤”，并“表示希望”特朗普能帮助结束乌克兰战争。

Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the lack of any apparent progress on Russia and Ukraine ​during Mr. Trump’s summit in Alaska, in which he applaude​d the Russian president and even rolled out a red carpe​t, was the subtext of the president’s ire about the gathering in China.

在阿拉斯加峰会上，特朗普不仅称赞俄罗斯总统，甚至为他铺设红毯，然而，布鲁金斯学会高级研究员罗伯特·卡根说，峰会在俄乌问题上没有取得任何明显进展，与总统对中国此次聚会的恼怒有潜在的关联。

“Everything with Trump is about Trump, and everything with Trump is about a combination of power and his reputation,” Mr. Kagan said. “And so the problem that he’s having with Putin right now is not that his relationship has been damaged by Putin’s behavior. It’s that Putin is humiliating him on a steady basis. This meeting is humiliation at a larger level.”

“特朗普的一切都围绕着他自己，重点是权力和他的声誉的结合，”卡根说。“所以，他现在与普京之间的问题，不是普京的行为破坏了他和普京之间的关系。而是普京一直在羞辱他。这次会面本质上是更大层面的羞辱。”

In the case of China, with which Mr. Trump has engaged in a bitter trade war, the threat was more clear, said R. Nicholas Burns, who served as the U.S. ambassador to China under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

曾在拜登总统任内担任美国驻华大使的尼古拉斯·伯恩斯说，对于和特朗普开展了激烈贸易战的中国来说，威胁的性质更为明显。

The parade in particular was symbolic, Mr. Burns added. Not only did it rewrite history of World War II, propping China and Russia as the “main victors,” he said, it downplayed U.S. support.

伯恩斯还说，这次阅兵尤其具有象征意义。他说，这不仅是在重写第二次世界大战的历史，将中国和俄罗斯塑造为“主要战胜国”，还淡化了美国的支持。

“The overt symbolism of the spectacle in Beijing was designed to showcase China’s expanding military might and the close alliance between China and Russia as well as China’s spreading influence among other authoritarian governments in Central Asia and beyond,” he said.

“北京阅兵的公开象征意义是为了展示中国不断扩大的军事实力和中俄之间的密切联盟，以及中国在中亚及其他地区其他威权政府中不断扩大的影响力，”他说。

Mr. Trump complained that he believed that China’s parade should have mentioned the United States more during the festivities for its role in World War II. And he has sought to squelch any concerns that Russia and China were forming an axis against the United States.

特朗普抱怨说，他认为中国的阅兵式应该在庆祝活动中更多地提到美国在第二次世界大战中的作用。他还试图平息人们对俄中正在形成反美轴心的担忧。

“I am not concerned at all,” Mr. Trump said this week on a conservative radio show.

“我一点也不担心，”特朗普本周在一个保守派电台节目中说。

“We have the strongest military in the world, by far,” he told the host, Scott Jennings. “They would never use their military on us. Believe me.”

“我们拥有当今世界上最强大的军队，”他对主持人斯科特·詹宁斯说。“他们永远不会对我们动用武力。相信我。”

Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a historian and the author, most recently, of “Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present,” said that Mr. Trump also probably felt slighted that he was not included in the gathering, given that he has publicly praised three of the participating autocrats for years, and modeled himself after.

历史学家、前不久出版《强人——从墨索里尼到现总统》(Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present)一书的露丝·本-吉亚特指出，特朗普可能也因未获邀出席而感觉受到冷落——毕竟他多年来公开赞扬过三位与会的专制统治者，并以他们为榜样。

“A rule of thumb when evaluating the words and actions of strongmen is that at some level it is always about them,” she said. “Add in China’s display of military strength, and contrast this parade with the lackluster U.S. one Trump staged on his birthday, and you get an inflammatory reaction designed to divert press attention back to him.”

“在评价强人的言行时，一个经验是，在某种程度上，他们的言行都是围绕着他们自己，”她说。“再加上中国展示军事实力，将这次阅兵与特朗普生日那天乏善可陈的美国阅兵形成对比，你就会看到他煽动性的反应，目的是把媒体的注意力转移到他身上。”

As the leaders of China and Russia walked to the viewing platform at a military parade in Beijing on Wednesday, they made small talk about living forever.

周三，在北京阅兵式上，中俄两国领导人在走向观礼台时，聊起了长生不老。

Xi Jinping, China’s leader, mused that people might soon live to 150. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, speaking through a translator, said that organ transplants could allow humans to achieve “immortality.”

中国国家主席习近平感慨人类寿命或将突破150岁。俄罗斯总统普京通过翻译表示，器官移植可以让人类实现“永生”。

The fragments of banter were captured by a microphone and broadcast live by Chinese state news media from the parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. It was a hot mic moment that shed light on how medical advances are intersecting with geopolitics, given that both Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, who are both 72, have suggested they may want to stay in power for years to come.

这段闲谈被麦克风捕捉下来，并通过中国官方媒体庆祝“二战”结束80周年阅兵式直播播放了出去。鉴于现年72岁的普京和习近平都曾表示可能希望在未来几年继续掌权，这个无意被捕捉的时刻凸显了医学进步与地缘政治的交集。

Asked about the comments in a news conference later on Wednesday, Mr. Putin confirmed that the conversation had taken place.

在周三晚些时候的新闻发布会上，当被问及上述言论时，普京证实了这番对话的发生。

“Modern health methods,” Mr. Putin told a reporter, “allow humanity to hope” that “life expectancy will grow significantly.” Among those advances, he said, were “medical means, even surgical ones, related to organ transplants.”

普京对记者说，“现代医疗方法让人类有理由期待预期寿命将显著延长。”他说，这些进步包括“与器官移植有关的医疗手段，甚至是外科手术手段”。

Mr. Putin has long been reported to take a personal interest in longevity, and he has tasked his health ministry with increasing life expectancy as a “key priority.” The nuclear energy conglomerate Rosatom, one of Russia’s most important state companies, said last year that it was developing technology to “print” human organs.

一直有报道称普京个人对长寿的问题很感兴趣，他责成卫生部将延长预期寿命作为“首要任务”。俄罗斯最重要的国有企业之一、核能集团俄罗斯国家原子能公司去年表示，该公司正在开发“打印”人体器官的技术。

There is no evidence that replacing people’s organs one by one can extend their life, nor is there any substitute for the human brain, which also undergoes the changes of aging. But Mr. Putin apparently referred to organ transplants as a key to longevity as he chatted with Mr. Xi ahead of Wednesday’s parade.

目前没有证据表明一个个地更换人体器官可以延长人的寿命，人类大脑同样会经历衰老变化，且无法被替代。但在周三阅兵前与习近平交谈时，普京显然将器官移植视为长寿的关键。

The live footage picked up the voices of a translator and of Mr. Xi as the world leaders walked to the viewing platform on Tiananmen, or the Gate of Heavenly Peace, which marks the entrance to the former palace of China’s emperors.

当各国领导人步入天安门观礼台时，直播画面捕捉到翻译人员与习近平的声音。天安门是中国昔日帝王宫殿的入口。

Kim Jong-un, the North Korean ruler, accompanied the pair and appeared to be listening in through another translator.

朝鲜领导人金正恩和两人一同前行，似乎正通过另一名翻译聆听对话。

“People rarely lived to be over 70, but these days, at 70, you are still a child,” a man apparently translating Mr. Xi’s comments for Mr. Putin could be heard saying in Russian.

“过去人们活不过70岁，现在70岁还算孩子，”一名男子用俄语转述习近平的话给普京听。

“Biotechnology is making advances,” Mr. Putin responded, according to the translator, now speaking in Mandarin for Mr. Xi. “There’ll be constant transplants of human organs, and maybe even people will grow younger as they age — even achieving immortality.”

“随着生物技术取得进展，”这名翻译用普通话把普京的回答转述给习近平，“人类器官会不断移植，甚至越活越年轻，甚至会长生不老。”

“It could be that in this century humans might be able to live to 150 years old,” Mr. Xi can then be heard saying.

“有预测呢，本世纪呢，可能可以活到150岁，”随后可听到习近平说。

While Mr. Xi has until now shown none of Mr. Putin’s enthusiasm for publicly discussing any hopes for longevity, he has suggested that he wants to stay in power, and therefore alive, for some time yet, avoiding any hint that he has chosen a successor.

尽管习近平迄今未曾像普京那样热衷于公开讨论长寿愿景，但他暗示希望继续掌权，因此仍需活得更久，而且他尚未透露任何指定接班人的迹象。

“It’s our shared hope that the elderly can be well cared for, happy, and live to a ripe age in good health,” he has said.

“让老年人老有所养、生活幸福、健康长寿是我们的共同愿望，”他曾说。

But during Wednesday’s military parade, Mr. Xi did not entirely hide his age. There was gray visible in his hair — not always the case for Chinese leaders, who sometimes dye their hair luxuriantly black, even in advanced age.

但在周三的阅兵式上，习近平并未完全掩饰自己的年龄。他头发中可见白发——这在中国领导人中并不常见，他们有时会将头发染得乌黑，即便年事已高。

With round-the-clock medical care, Chinese leaders can live for a long time. Deng Xiaoping died at 92, and his successor, Jiang Zemin, died at 96.

得益于全天候的医疗保障，中国领导人普遍长寿。邓小平享年92岁，其继任者江泽民则活到96岁。

Mr. Putin, for his part, engineered a change of Russia’s Constitution in 2020 that would allow him to rule until 2036, when he would be 83. He is fixated on his health, people who know him say, and required those he met face to face during the Covid-19 pandemic to quarantine for as long as two weeks to see him.

普京在2020年修改了俄罗斯宪法，令他可以执政到2036年，届时他将年满83岁。认识他的人说，他非常关注自己的健康，新冠疫情期间，他要求所有面见者必须接受长达两周的隔离观察。

At its military parade on Wednesday, China showcased hypersonic missiles to sink ships, drones that serve as wingmen and nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that can strike the continental United States.

中国在周三举行的阅兵式上展示了可击沉舰艇的高超音速导弹、可作为僚机的无人机，以及可打击美国本土的核弹道导弹。

The jets that screamed across the sky and the columns of missiles and armored vehicles that rolled past Tiananmen Square in Beijing provided a rare look at China’s new weapons.

喷气式飞机呼啸而过，导弹和装甲车纵队驶过天安门广场，让人们得以罕见地一睹中国的新式武器。

阅兵式上的所有军事装备。注：仅展示地面阅兵的装备，未包括三个支援与后勤方队。

The massive military parade, presided over by China’s leader Xi Jinping, was a warning to his country’s prospective foes.

中国领导人习近平主持的这场盛大阅兵式是对该国潜在敌人发出的警告。

The anti-ship missiles seemed tailor-made to menace American forces in the Asia-Pacific region. Long-range rocket launchers magnified Beijing’s threat to Taiwan, the self-governed island democracy. The armored vehicles that can be dropped from planes appeared to extend China’s ability to defend its growing global interests.

反舰导弹似乎是专门为危及亚太地区的美国军队量身定做的。远程火箭发射器增强了北京对民主自治的台湾的威胁。可空投的装甲车则显示出中国在维护其不断扩大的全球利益方面具备了更强的能力。

If one theme stood out, analysts said, it was that the People’s Liberation Army is betting on unmanned systems to gain a potential edge in battle.

分析人士指出，如果说有一个主题引人注目的话，那就是中国人民解放军正押注无人系统，以在战斗中获得可能的优势。

New Missile Threats to U.S. Navy Ships

美国海军舰艇面临新的导弹威胁

One of the parade’s strongest warnings to U.S. forces was in four new models of anti-ship missiles, three of which were hypersonic, according to state media, meaning they travel at least five times the speed of sound and can maneuver to evade defenses.

此次阅兵式对美军最强烈的警示当属四种新型反舰导弹，据中国官媒报道，其中三种是高超音速导弹，飞行速度至少是音速的五倍，而且能机动地躲避反导系统。

“Beijing’s decision to showcase these weapons sends a not-so-subtle message to Taiwan and Washington that China has the ability to threaten American warships,” said Timothy R. Heath, a senior researcher at the global policy institute RAND who studies the Chinese military.

“北京决定展示这些武器，把一个不加掩饰的信号发给台湾和华盛顿，那就是中国具备威胁美国军舰的能力，”在兰德公司全球政策研究所研究中国军事的高级研究员蒂莫西·R·希思说。

For China, having more advanced hypersonic missiles bearing down at different speeds and angles on enemy warships may make it harder for an enemy navy to avoid or counter attacks.

从中国的角度来看，拥有更先进的以不同速度和角度攻击敌方军舰的高超音速导弹，也许会让敌方的海军更难躲避或反击。

The most notable of the anti-ship missiles might be the YJ-19, a cruise missile that appears to use a “scramjet,” which burns its fuel in an airflow moving at supersonic speed, a design that helps give the missile its high speed.

在这些反舰导弹中，最引人注目的或是“鹰击-19”。这种巡航导弹似乎采用了“超燃冲压发动机”，即在超音速气流中燃烧燃料，这种设计有助于提高导弹的速度。

超音速反舰导弹

The missile’s features suggest that it could have both a highly unpredictable flight path and the ability to fly its last leg at a lower altitude than ballistic missiles, albeit at a slower speed, said Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist in the security studies program of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

该导弹的特性表明，它可能具备极其难以预测的飞行路径，而且有在最后阶段比弹道导弹更低的高度完成飞行的能力，尽管速度会减慢，麻省理工学院安全研究项目的首席研究员埃里克·赫金博坦说。

It was unclear whether the YJ-19 and other new missiles were already in service. The potential impact on U.S. Navy ships’ vulnerability will depend on how many of the missiles China can make and deploy, Mr. Heginbotham said.

目前尚不清楚“鹰击-19”和其他新型导弹是否已经服役。这些武器对美国海军舰艇脆弱性造成的潜在影响，将取决于中国的量产和部署能力，赫金博坦说。

“Not all of what they will show will be operational,” he said of the parade. “That’s been true in the past, and it remains true now.”

“阅兵展示的装备并非未来都投入使用，”他在谈到此次阅兵时说。“过去如此，现在亦然。”

New Weapons for Ground Troops

地面部队的新武器

The parade showcased new armored ground vehicles that could be dropped from transport planes. The vehicles had what appeared to be periscope-like viewers to allow troops to observe their surroundings from inside the vehicles.

阅兵式展示了可从运输机空投的新型地面装甲车。这些战车有类似潜望镜的观察装置，让士兵能够从车内观察周围环境。

新空降兵战车

The new vehicles showed that China was investing in possible rapid deployment to Taiwan or even far beyond China, said Joshua Arostegui, the research director of the China Landpower Studies Center at the U.S. Army War College.

这些新式战车表明，中国正在投资研发可能用于快速部署到台湾甚至更远地区的装备，美国陆军战争学院中国陆地力量研究中心研究主任约书亚·阿罗斯特吉说。

“Adding such advanced armor to the airborne corps will give these light infantry forces much more firepower and protection when they are dropped behind enemy lines or rapidly responding to dangerous situations abroad,” he said.

“为空降兵配备这种先进战车，将使轻步兵在敌后空降或快速响应海外危险情况时拥有更强大的火力和防护，”他说。

Also featured were remote-controlled armored buggies that can clear mines and pick up wounded soldiers. “The biggest issue with these systems is going to be cost and repair,” Mr. Arostegui noted.

阅兵式上还展示了遥控装甲车，它们能用于扫雷和搬运伤员。“这些系统最大的问题将是成本和维修，”阿罗斯特吉指出。

A Glimpse of Future Sea and Air Combat

对未来海空作战的一瞥

Two sleek submersible drones made their debut, signaling China’s ambitions to compete with the United States beneath the waves using “extra-large uncrewed undersea vehicles.”

两艘造型流畅的无人潜航器在阅兵式上首次亮相，示意了中国使用“巨型无人水下载具”在海下与美国展开竞争的雄心。

One was a 60-foot, torpedo-shaped vessel with a smooth hull, while the other had small masts that could be used for communications.

其中一艘是20米长的鱼雷形潜艇，船体外表光滑；另一艘配备了可用于通信的小型桅杆。

水下无人机

Little is publicly known about China’s new undersea vehicles, or how they stack up against similar vehicles being developed by the United States, Russia and other naval powers. What stands out is the sheer number of undersea vehicles that China is developing, said Jennifer Parker, a former anti-submarine warfare officer in the Australian Navy.

公众对中国的新型无人潜航器知之甚少，也不清楚它们与美国、俄罗斯，以及其他拥有强大海军的国家正在研发的类似潜航器相比能力如何。令人瞩目的是中国正在研发的无人潜航器数量之多，已从澳大利亚海军反潜战部门退役的军官詹妮弗·帕克说。

“The range of types indicates they may be more advanced in this endeavor than other countries,” said Ms. Parker, now an expert at the National Security College of Australian National University.

“型号之多表明，中国在这方面可能比其他国家更先进，”帕克说，她现在是澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院的专家。

China may also be looking to arm some of its models, Ms. Parker suggested, pointing to the features of the AJX002 model shown at the parade. “Given the lack of masts and its size, it looks like it’s weaponized,” she said. “Could be some sort of self-propelled mine or torpedo-like capability.”

帕克指出，从阅兵式上展示的AJX002型号的特征来看，中国可能也在考虑为某些型号的潜航器配备武器。“考虑到它没有桅杆，而且尺寸庞大，看起来它是配备了武器的，”她说。“可能是某种自航水雷或类似鱼雷的武器。”

Jet fighters, bombers and other air force planes also roared through the sky, while on the ground, trucks carried large drones that looked like small fighter jets. It was a sign of China’s plans to pair manned and unmanned aircraft in future wars.

喷气式战斗机、轰炸机和其他空军飞机也在空中呼啸而过，地面上的卡车运载着外形类似小型战斗机的大型无人机。这表明在未来战争中，中国计划把有人驾驶的飞机与无人机搭配起来。

无人机

China and other powers are betting that artificial intelligence will make it possible for piloted jets to fly alongside such so-called “loyal wingmen” drones, which may help surveil and attack enemy aircraft and block missiles from hitting the manned fighters.

中国和其他大国都在押注人工智能，它将使有人驾驶的飞机与被称为“忠诚僚机”的无人机并肩飞行成为可能，这种僚机也许能帮助监视和攻击敌机，防止导弹击中有人驾驶的战斗机。

The number of large drones and unmanned planes in the parade showed that China is heavily committed to this new field, said Andreas Rupprecht, an expert on Chinese military aviation who is based in Germany. “In many technological areas, it is in the fast lane — sometimes on par with, or even ahead of, leading powers,” he said.

阅兵式上展示的大型无人机和无人驾驶飞机的数量表明，中国正大力发展这一新领域，在德国研究中国军事航空的专家安德烈亚斯·鲁普雷希特说。“中国在许多技术领域处于快车道上，有时与领先国家并驾齐驱，甚至超过了它们，”他说。

None of the unmanned planes were shown in flight, though. They may still be a work in progress.

不过，阅兵式上并没有展示任何无人驾驶飞机的飞行。它们可能仍在研发中。

Nuclear Expansion

扩大核武

Among the most closely watched weapons were China’s nuclear forces. That included the missiles labeled “DF-31BJ” that rumbled past Tiananmen Square, hinting at the country’s plans to expand its intercontinental force, which could strike the United States.

阅兵式上最受关注的武器之一是中国的核力量。其中包括从天安门广场上隆隆驶过的标有“东风-31BJ”字样的导弹，暗示着中国计划扩大能达到美国本土的洲际核力量。

The label indicated that the missile may be a version of China’s road-mobile DF-31 intercontinental nuclear missile, adapted for silo launch, said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of “The New Nuclear Age.”

卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员、《新核时代》一书的作者安基特·潘达表示，该导弹标的型号表明，它可能是中国的公路机动型东风-31洲际核导弹的一个版本，适用于井基发射。

新核导弹

China displayed nuclear-capable missiles for submarines and aircraft at the parade, but it does not disclose how many nuclear weapons it has. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that China has about 600 warheads. China has also upgraded the missiles, submarines and bombers that can carry the warheads.

中国在阅兵式上展示了可由潜艇和飞机携带的核导弹，但它从未公开说明其核武器的数量。美国科学家联合会的估计是，中国拥有约600枚核弹头。此外，中国还对可搭载核弹头的导弹、潜艇和轰炸机进行了升级换代。

In recent years, China built three missile silo fields in its northern deserts, and the appearance of the DF-31BJ missile at the parade seemed to bolster U.S. military assessments that the missile would be installed in at least some of the 320 or so silos, Mr. Panda said.

近年来，中国在北部沙漠地区建造了三个导弹发射井场。这次阅兵式上亮相的东风-31BJ导弹似乎印证了美国军方的评估，即该导弹可能部署在三个井场约320个发射井中的一部分，潘达说。

About 10 of the silos in each field may have already been loaded with missiles, the Federation of American Scientists said in a recent report. But the Chinese government has said little in public about the silo fields.

美国科学家联合会在最近发布的一份报告中称，每个发射井场中约有10个发射井可能已经安装了导弹。但中国政府很少在公开场合提及这些发射井。

“For now, parading the DF-31BJ is likely the closest we’ll come to China acknowledging new silos,” Mr. Panda said.

“就目前而言，东风-31BJ导弹在阅兵式上出现，可能是我们距离中国承认新发射井存在最近的一次，”潘达说。

On the eve of China’s grand military parade, an activist in a city with 30 million people staged a protest that doubled as performance art, proof that defiance can still surface, and survive, even in one of the world’s most surveilled states.

在中国举行盛大阅兵前夕，一名活动人士在一个人口3000万的城市进行了一场兼具抗议与行为艺术的活动，证明了即使在世界上监控最严密的国家之一，反抗依然可以出现并得以存续。

At 10 p.m. on Friday in Chongqing, a large projection on a building lit up the night with slogans calling for the end of Communist Party rule. “Only without the Communist Party can there be a new China,” read one. Another declared: “No more lies, we want the truth. No more slavery, we want freedom.”

上周五晚上10点，重庆一栋建筑上的巨大投影点亮了夜空，显示着要求结束共产党统治的标语。其中一条写着“没有共产党才有新中国。”另一条宣称：“不要谎言要真相，不要奴役要自由。”

It took the police 50 minutes to locate where the projection was coming from — a hotel nearby — and shut it down. That’s usually the end of such protests in China. But not in this case. A few hours later, the activist released video footage of five police officers entering the hotel room, rushing to the window and finding the projector hidden behind a half-closed curtain. While four of them were fiddling to shut it down, another officer pointed with surprise to a surveillance camera aimed at them.

警方花了50分钟才找到投影来源——附近的一家酒店——并将其关闭。在中国，此类抗议通常到此为止。但这次并非如此。几个小时后，这名活动人士发布了一段视频，显示五名警察进入酒店房间，冲到窗前，发现投影仪藏在半掩的窗帘后面。四名警察忙着关闭设备时，另一名警察惊讶地指着对准他们的监控摄像头。

A handwritten letter addressed to the police was on the coffee table: “Even if you are a beneficiary of the system today, one day you will inevitably become a victim on this land,” said the letter, which the activist also circulated online. “So please treat the people with kindness.”

茶几上有一封写给警方的手书：“也许你现在是受益人，但在这片土地上有一天你一定是受害者。”这名活动人士将这封信发到了网上。“请在能力范围内善待他人。”

The next day, the man who staged the incident, Qi Hong, published another image from surveillance footage showing police officers questioning his frail, hunched mother in front of her village home.

第二天，策划此事件的戚洪发布了一张监控画面，显示警察在他家的村屋门前盘问他年老体弱、佝偻的母亲。

The act was both a protest and a performance, documented in real time. The protest, staged through light and cameras, turned the state’s gaze back on itself. The visuals, when put together, had the look of performance art mocking the Communist Party security apparatus.

这一行为既是抗议，也是表演，并被实时记录了下来。通过投影和摄像头进行的抗议将凝视的目光调转，使国家成为了被审视的对象。这些视觉资料组合在一起，宛如嘲弄共产党安全机构的行为艺术。

By the time the police arrived, Mr. Qi had already left China nine days earlier with his wife and daughters. He had turned on the projection and recorded the police’s response from a remote location in Britain.

当警察到达时，戚洪已于九天前带着妻子和女儿离开了中国。他在英国远程开启了投影，并记录下警方的反应。

Technology has strengthened the Chinese government’s ability to control its people. Mr. Qi illustrated how the same tools can enable resistance.

技术强化了中国政府控制人民的能力。戚洪展示了同样的工具也能实现抵抗。

“Qi Hong outwitted the police, outmaneuvered the state machinery — and there was little they could do about it,” said Li Ying, who runs perhaps the most influential Chinese-language X account and often posts protest footage. “It was incredibly cool.”

“戚洪智胜警方，巧妙地规避了国家机器——他们对此束手无策，”运营着X平台上可能最具影响力的中文账号，并经常发布抗议视频的李颖表示，“简直太酷了。”

Mr. Li called the act “a serious blow” to the authorities who had poured enormous resources into ensuring stability ahead of the parade on Wednesday. “His action showed that the C.C.P.’s control isn’t airtight. It’s not like we can’t do anything,” he said.

李颖称此举是对当局的“沉重打击”——为保障周三阅兵前不出事，当局投入了巨大资源维稳。“他的行动表明，中共的控制并非天衣无缝。我们并非什么都做不了，”他说。

The videos, circulated through the social media accounts of Mr. Li and others, reached an unusually large audience. One post of the projected slogans drew more than 18 million views in four days.

通过李颖和其他人的社交媒体账号传播的这些视频获得了规模异常庞大的受众。其中一条关于这次投影标语的帖子在四天内获得了超过1800万次的观看数量。

Mr. Qi said he had never thought of his act as art or even bravery.

戚洪说，他从未想过自己的行为是艺术，甚至是勇敢行为。

“My only intention was to express myself,” he told me in his first media interview. “The party installs surveillance cameras to watch us. I thought I could use the same method to watch them.”

“我唯一的意图是表达自己，”他在首次接受媒体采访时告诉我。“党安装监控摄像头来监视我们。我想我也可以用同样的方法来监视他们。”

Many people online called him a hero and offered their thanks. Some commenters said Mr. Qi’s ingenuity in using technology had inspired them.

许多网民称他为英雄并表达感谢。一些评论者说，戚洪在运用科技手段的独创性启发了他们。

Mr. Qi himself is a copycat. Like other protesters, he drew inspiration from Peng Lifa, the man who in October 2022 unfurled banners on a busy Beijing overpass calling for China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, to step down. Mr. Peng, soon tagged “Bridge Man” in a nod to “Tank Man” of the 1989 Tiananmen protests, was quickly seized by the police and has not been heard from.

戚洪的做法也并非独创。和其他抗议者一样，他受到彭立发的启发。2022年10月，彭立发在北京一座繁忙的立交桥上拉起横幅，呼吁中国最高领导人习近平下台。他很快被警方逮捕，此后音讯全无。很快他就被冠以“桥人”的称号，这是对1989年天安门抗议中“坦克人”的呼应。

The copycat effect may be the biggest headache for the Chinese government. The country’s economy is experiencing a yearslong slowdown, and many college graduates, migrant workers and professionals are struggling to find jobs. Mr. Li, the blogger, said many more people were sending him protest footage this year than in the prior two years.

对中国政府来说，模仿效应或许才是最让其头痛之处。中国经济正经历长达数年的放缓，许多大学毕业生、农民工和专业人士都在为找工作发愁。博主李颖表示，今年向他发送抗议视频的人比前两年多得多。

Mr. Qi insists he is not courageous. Soft-spoken, he said he felt compelled to share what he thinks and to urge more Chinese people to see what he called the brutality and absurdity of the Communist Party’s rule.

戚洪坚称自己并不勇敢。他轻声细语地说，他觉得有必要分享自己的想法，并敦促更多中国人看清他所说的共产党统治的残酷和荒谬。

Born in 1982 in a mountain village near Chongqing, Mr. Qi grew up in poverty. At 16, he dropped out of school and joined the tide of migrant workers seeking work in China’s booming cities. But without the temporary residence permits required at the time, he said, he was detained and beaten by police officers in Guangdong and Beijing, once for over 20 days. The experience, he said, persuaded him to avoid the authorities at all costs.

戚洪1982年出生于重庆附近的一个山村，在贫困中长大。16岁时，他辍学加入了涌向中国繁荣城市寻找工作的农民工大军。但他说，由于当时没有所需的暂住证，他曾在广东和北京多次遭警察拘留、殴打，其中一次长达20多天。他说，这段经历让他下定决心不惜一切代价避开当局。

He cycled through jobs working in factories, sanitation and sales. In 2006, his fortune turned when he started selling inexpensive items online on Taobao. Within a few years, he married and bought a modest apartment in Beijing.

他先后在工厂、环卫和销售等行业工作。2006年，他开始在淘宝上销售廉价商品，命运由此出现转机。几年的时间，他结婚并在北京买下了一套不大的公寓。

But in 2013, restless and drawn to Buddhism, he shut down the online shop, moved his family to a village outside Beijing and ran a small package pickup station. By 2021, with their eldest daughter about to enter middle school, the family returned to Chongqing.

但在2013年，由于心绪不安并受到佛教吸引，他关闭了网店，带着家人搬到北京郊外的一个村庄，经营一个小快递代收点。到2021年，随着大女儿即将进入初中，一家人回到了重庆。

There, Mr. Qi worked as an electrician and grew more politically aware. He bristled at the propaganda in his daughters’ textbooks, the government’s stoking of nationalism and the suppression of free speech. “I was dissatisfied with the government, but I didn’t dare to speak out,” he said.

在那里，戚洪做了一名电工，政治意识也日益增强。他对女儿教科书中的宣传、政府煽动民族主义和压制言论自由感到愤怒。“我对政府不满，但不敢说出来，”他说。

He turned to books for answers. He read “1984,” “Animal Farm” and “Brave New World.” “I was terrified that they’re still ruling us the same way,” he said.

他转而从阅读中寻找答案。他读了《1984》、《动物农场》和《美丽新世界》。“让我恐惧的是，他们至今仍用同样的方式统治我们，”他说。

His WeChat posts became more pointed. On the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre in 2022, he wrote: “The pursuit of light is something every thinking human should strive for. Light of wisdom, light of civilization, light of humanity, light of democracy.” His New Year wish for 2024 was simple: “May everyone have freedom from fear.”

他在微信的发帖变得更加尖锐。在2022年天安门大屠杀33周年之际，他写道：“追求光明是每个有思想的人都应该努力去做的事情。智慧之光，文明之光，人性之光，民主之光。”他对2024年的新年愿望很简单：“愿每个人都免于恐惧。”

In May, he posted what he assumed would get his WeChat account deleted, “We want democracy, not dictatorship!” Nothing happened. But for him, the words were a turning point.

今年5月，他发了一条自己以为一定会导致微信号被封的帖子：“我们要民主，不要独裁！”然而什么也没发生。但对他来说，这些话是一个转折点。

By July, with news of Mr. Xi’s planned military parade, Mr. Qi decided it was time.

到7月，随着习近平计划阅兵的消息传出，戚洪决定，是时候行动了。

He surveyed locations and chose a busy section of Chongqing’s university area. On Aug. 10, he checked into a hotel, spent 10 days practicing laser projection on a nearby high-rise and prepared the slogans he would beam into the night sky. To test, he beamed harmless phrases like “be healthy” and “be happy.” Then he and his family left China.

他考察了多个地点，最后选择了重庆大学区的一个繁华地段。8月10日，他入住一家酒店，用了10天时间在附近的一栋高楼上练习激光投影，并准备好要投射到夜空中的标语。为了测试，他先投射了“身体健康”“开心快乐”之类的无害词句。然后，他带着家人离开了中国。

On Aug. 29, he switched on the projector remotely. He clipped together footage of the slogans and the police raid, shared them with influential people online like Mr. Li and watched as they spread across the internet.

8月29日，他远程开启了投影仪。他将标语和警察搜查的视频剪辑在一起，分享给李颖等有影响力的网络人士，随后看到它们在互联网上迅速传播开来。

The state struck back. The police detained one of his brothers and a friend, and interrogated his mother outside her home. He had told no one about his plans except his wife and daughters. The Chongqing police did not respond to my request for comment.

政府进行了反击。警方拘留了他的一个兄弟和一位朋友，并在他母亲家门外审问她。除了妻女，他没有把计划告诉任何人。重庆警方没有回应我的置评请求。

Mr. Qi says he’s stunned by the reactions online and is unsure of what lies ahead.

戚洪说，网络上的反应让他感到震惊，他也不确定未来会发生什么。

Beijing was transformed on Wednesday into a stage for one of the most elaborate Chinese military parades in recent memory, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, an event China has sought to use to drum up nationalism.

周三，北京变成了近年来最盛大的中国阅兵式的舞台，此次阅兵是纪念第二次世界大战结束80周年。中国借此盛事高调宣扬民族主义。

In a meticulously choreographed spectacle, fighter jets streaked overhead, tanks rumbled down Chang’an Avenue, and thousands of goose-stepping troops marched across Tiananmen Square. Here are parade highlights, in photos.

这场精心编排的盛典中，战机在空中呼啸而过，坦克行驶在长安街上，数以千计的士兵以整齐划一的步伐走过天安门广场。以下是阅兵式的几个瞬间。

Andy Wong/Associated Press

Xi Jinping, China’s leader, inspecting the troops from a state limousine.

When the top leader of North Korea travels abroad, its secretive government often does not confirm the trip until he has arrived at his destination, or even after he has returned home.

当朝鲜最高领导人出国访问时，这个神秘的政府往往要等他到达目的地，甚至在他回国后才会对他的行程予以证实。

So​ when both China and North Korea announced last week that Kim Jong-un would attend a military parade in Beijing on Wednesday, overseas intelligence officials ​began looking for the whereabouts of a train painted a drab green.

因此，当中朝两国上周宣布金正恩将于周三出席北京的阅兵式时，海外情报人员开始追踪一列深绿色涂装的列车行踪。

Th​at train, known in North Korea simply as “The Sun,” is Mr. Kim’s bulletproof private vehicle. His father and his grandfather, who ruled the country before him, also used it, and a fourth-generation Kim was aboard when it reached Beijing on Tuesday, according to state media: Mr. Kim’s young daughter, Kim Ju-ae, who is increasingly being seen as a potential successor.

这列在朝鲜境内被简称为“太阳号”的列车是金正恩的防弹专列。他的父亲和祖父——即此前统治该国的两代领导人——也曾使用该列车。据官方媒体报道，本周二列车抵达北京时，车上还载着金氏家族的第四代成员：金正恩的幼女金主爱，外界正日益视其为潜在接班人。

朝鲜官方媒体周二发布的这张照片显示，中国外交部长王毅前往迎接到访的金正恩。右侧为金正恩的女儿。

China ​organized the military parade ​to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Sino-Japanese War and World War II.​ It has invited heads of state from more than 20 countries to attend, including countries hostile toward the United States like Russia and Iran​. The event will be Mr. Kim’s debut on a multilateral diplomatic ​stage— and his daughter’s.

中国为纪念抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年举行阅兵式，邀请了20多个国家的国家元首出席，其中包括俄罗斯和伊朗等对美国怀有敌意的国家。此次活动将成为金正恩以及他的女儿首次亮相多边外交舞台。

Here is what we know about the train, which took Mr. Kim to China for his first trip there since 2019.

这辆列车载着金正恩前往中国，进行他自2019年以来的首次访华，以下是我们目前掌握的专列信息。

Family Ride

家族列车

The Kim family, which has ruled North Korea since the country was founded at the end of World War II, has a long history of traveling by rail to China, Russia and other parts of what was then the Soviet Union.​

自“二战”结束朝鲜建国以来，金氏家族一直统治着这个国家，家族成员素有乘专列前往中国、俄罗斯及前苏联其他地区的传统。

Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, was said to have a fear of flying. He used the train exclusively for trips to China and Russia, including a ​three-week, ​12,400-mile round trip to Moscow in 2001.​ If he was aerophobic, he was also a great lover of train travel.

据说金正恩的父亲金正日有飞行恐惧症。他只乘坐这列火车前往中国和俄罗斯旅行，包括2001年为期三周、往返历程约2万公里的莫斯科之行。如果说他真的害怕坐飞机，那么他同时也是火车旅行的狂热爱好者。

2001年，金世家族专列在俄罗斯新西伯利亚。当时金正恩的父亲金正日正乘车前往莫斯科。

“If you travel by plane​, you do not see anything of the country but the airports and the capital, while traveling by train gives one the opportunity to see the expanses and the cities, the nature, and to stop and set the foot on the ground, to see reality with one’s own eyes, and to meet and to talk with the locals,” Kim Jong-il once told his Russian hosts, according to​ an account by Georgy Toloraya​, a former Russian diplomat.

“乘飞机旅行只能看到机场和首都，乘火车则能饱览辽阔的土地、城市与自然风光，还能停下脚步踏上大地，亲眼见证现实，与当地人交流对话，“据前俄罗斯外交官格奥尔基·托洛拉亚记载，金正日曾对俄方东道主这样说。

Kim Jong-un, like his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, does not seem to​ mind traveling by plane. He flew on a Soviet-era jet when he visited China in 2018.

金正恩与祖父金日成相似，似乎并不排斥航空出行。2018年访华时，他乘坐的正是苏联时期制造的喷气式飞机。

But North Korean officials are not confident that their decrepit fleet of Soviet planes can cover longer distances, according to South Korean officials.

但据韩国官员称，朝鲜官员对老旧的苏制飞机能否完成长途航行缺乏信心。

​Kim Jong-un has used the train on two other trips to China, and ​for trips to Russia’s far east in 2019 and 2023.​ When he had to cross an ocean in 2018, to make the 3,000-mile trip to Singapore to meet with President Trump​, Beijing rented him a Boeing 747​.

金正恩曾两次乘坐该专列访问中国，并于2019年及2023年乘此专列赴俄远东地区。2018年，当他不得不跨越大洋前往约4000公里外的新加坡与特朗普总统会面时，北京曾租借波音747专机供他使用。

​The Kim family’s train has featured heavily in state propaganda over the years, ferrying the dictators abroad and around North Korea on frequent visits to military units and farming towns. Kim Jong-il died on the train, of heart failure, during one such trip in 2011, according to state media. His private carriage is on display at a mausoleum in Pyongyang, where he lies in state.

多年来，金氏家族专列一直是国家宣传的重要内容，它载着独裁者们前往国外，并频繁穿梭于朝鲜境内的军事单位和农业城镇。据官方媒体报道，金正日在2011年的一次专列行程中死于心脏衰竭。他的私人车厢现陈列在平壤的一座陵墓，与金正日遗体放在一起。

Slow Ride

行驶缓慢

​Kim Jong-un has continued the family tradition, using the train as an office on wheels​. Last year, he took it to flood-stricken provinces and presided over a Politburo meeting in one of its cars, with the officials seated around a long desk, according to footage released by state media.

金正恩延续家族传统，将专列作为移动办公室使用。据官方媒体公布的视频显示，去年，他乘坐专列前往视察遭受洪灾的地区时，在火车上主持了政治局会议，与会官员围坐在一张长桌旁。

​The train ​is equipped with ​couches, satellite phones, computers and TV sets. Its crew is said to include a small army of ​bodyguards​ and medical staff. Heavy weapons are also aboard, and many of the cars have bulletproof plating, especially the ones where Mr. Kim works and sleeps, according to South Korean officials. ​The train has also carried Mr. Kim’s bulletproof sedan​s.

火车上配备了沙发、卫星电话、电脑和电视机。据说随行人员包括精锐的保镖和医疗团队。车上还载有重型武器，韩国官员透露，许多车厢都装有防弹装甲，尤其是金正恩工作和休息的区域。专列同时运载着领导人的防弹轿车。

朝鲜国家通讯社发布的另一张照片显示，金正恩周一与两名助手乘坐列车前往北京。

The extra​ weight of all that hardware, along with the decrepit state of ​North Korea’s rail system, makes for a slow ride​. The train can reach​ a maximum speed of just 37 miles per hour​ inside North Korea, according to experts in South Korea. It 2019, it took Mr. Kim nearly three days to cross​ North Korea and China on the train and reach Hanoi​, Vietnam, for his second summit with Mr. Trump.

所有这些重型装备以及朝鲜陈旧的铁路系统令列车行驶缓慢。据韩国专家称，这列火车在朝鲜境内的最高时速仅为60公里。2019年，金正恩乘坐该列车穿越朝中两国，耗时近三天抵达越南河内，与特朗普举行第二次峰会。

Luxury Ride

豪华专列

The train has long been said to be stocked with supplie​s that cater​ to ​the ruling Kim’s whims.

据说专列长期备有大量物资，以满足金家统治者的突发奇想。

“It was possible to order any dish of Russian, Chinese, Korean, Japanese and French cuisine,” wrote Konstantin Pulikovsky, a Russian official who traveled with Kim Jong-il​ during one of his Russian trips.

“无论俄式、中式、韩式、日式还是法式菜肴都能随叫随到，”曾随金正日访俄的俄罗斯官员康斯坦丁·普利科夫斯基写道。

Mr. Kim insisted that live lobster and other fresh delicacies be delivered to the train as it crossed Siberia, Mr. Pulikovsky said. Cases of Bordeaux and Burgundy wines were flown in from Paris, the Russian official recounted in his memoir of the trip, “Orient Express.”

普利科夫斯基在他关于这次旅行的回忆录《东方快车》中写道，金正日要求列车穿越西伯利亚时必须供应活龙虾等新鲜珍馐。成箱的波尔多和勃艮第葡萄酒从巴黎空运而来。

​Mr. Toloraya, the former diplomat, said Kim Jong-il was accompanied on one Russia trip by several singers and actors, who performed for him and his guests in both Korean and Russian. South Korean intelligence officials suspect that Kim Jong-un has inherited his father’s penchant for wining and dining, though no similar anecdotes from his trips have been made public.

前外交官托罗拉亚表示，金正日的一次俄罗斯之行有多名歌手和演员陪同，他们用朝俄双语为金正日及其宾客献艺。韩国情报官员怀疑金正恩继承了父亲的宴饮癖好，不过类似轶闻尚未见诸报道。

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, traveled to Beijing this week to hobnob with the presidents of China and Russia, two of his nation’s key allies. But he seems to have had another purpose for the trip: introducing his daughter as his potential successor.

朝鲜领导人金正恩本周赴北京，与朝鲜的两大关键盟友——中国和俄罗斯的国家主席会晤。但此行似乎还有一个目的：向外界介绍可能成为他的接班人的女儿。

The daughter, Kim Ju-ae, accompanied Mr. Kim to Beijing, where he joined ​leaders from more than 20 countries at a military parade​ on Wednesday. ​After the special train carrying Mr. ​Kim’s entourage pulled into Beijing Railway Station on Tuesday,​ Ju-ae stood close to Mr. Kim​ as he was greeted by senior Chinese officials​, according to photos released by North Korean state media.

金正恩的女儿金主爱陪同父亲来到北京，周三，他在北京出席了有20多个国家的领导人参加的阅兵仪式。据朝鲜官方媒体发布的照片显示，载有金正恩一行人的专列周二驶入北京火车站，在金正恩接受中国高层官员迎接时，金主爱就站在他的身旁。

It is the first overseas trip that Ju-ae is known to have taken with Mr. Kim.

这是已知的金主爱首次与金正恩一同出国访问。

Ju-ae, ​who is believed to be 12 years old, is the only child of Mr. Kim to have appeared in the North’s state media, which refers to her as “dear daughter.” Since late 2022, she has accompanied ​her father to military parades, weapons tests and other politically significant domestic events. ​

据信年仅12岁的金主爱是金正恩在朝鲜官方媒体上出现过的唯一子女，媒体用“亲爱的女儿”来称呼她。自2022年底以来，她多次陪同父亲参加阅兵式、武器试验和其他具有政治意义的国内活动。

South Korean analysts have said that Mr. Kim appears to be grooming her as an heir, though they have also been careful not to jump to conclusions. ​The fact that he brought ​Ju-ae on his ​first trip to China in six years, and to a major gathering of international leaders, is a significant new sign of her rising status, some said.

韩国分析人士指出，金正恩似乎正将金主爱培养为接班人，但他们也谨慎避免过快地做出结论。金正恩在时隔六年首次访华，并出席这样一次重要的国际领导人聚会时携金主爱同行，这一事实是她地位上升的一个重要新迹象。

Yang Moo-jin, a former president of the Seoul-based University of North Korean Studies, said the girl was going through the ritual of “introducing herself” to the leadership of China, North Korea’s most important ally.

位于首尔的朝鲜研究大学前校长杨武仁（音）表示，这是这个女孩在向朝鲜最重要的盟友中国的领导层进行“自我介绍”的仪式。

The scene at the Beijing railway station “showed that she was being treated as No. 2 of North Korea not only at home but also abroad,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea expert at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute. “By taking her to China, Kim Jong-un is sending a strong signal​ to the world that she ​is going to be his successor.”

北京火车站的一幕“表明她不仅在国内，而且在国外也被视为朝鲜的二号人物”，首尔世宗研究所的朝鲜问题专家郑相昌表示。“金正恩带她访华，向世界传递出强烈信号：她将成为他的接班人”

Although Mr. Kim was designated as the successor of his father, Kim Jong-il, at an early age, that status was kept secret until ​his father suffered a stroke in 2008.

金正恩幼年就被指定为其父金正日的接班人，但这一身份在2008年后者中风前始终保密。

China began a military spectacle on Wednesday that will rumble through the ceremonial heart of the capital, featuring fighter jets, tanks and the latest in Chinese military technology in the country’s most ambitious display of power and diplomatic reach in years.

中国周三在首都的庆典中心举行了一场盛大的军事盛典，战斗机、坦克和最新的中国军事技术亮相，这是中国近年来最雄心勃勃的一次实力和外交影响力展示。

As China’s leader, Xi Jinping, presided over the parade, he was flanked by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, along with about 20 other leaders. It was a rare gathering of autocrats who have positioned themselves in opposition to the U.S.-led world order.

在习近平主持阅兵时，俄罗斯总统普京、朝鲜领导人金正恩以及约20位其他领导人陪同在侧。这是一场罕见的威权领导人聚会，他们都将自己定位为对抗美国主导的世界秩序的力量。

The event was rich in symbolism. Senior Chinese officials, current and retired, gathered in the rostrum of Tiananmen Gate above a large portrait of Mao Zedong, overlooking the Avenue of Heavenly Peace.

这场活动充满象征意味。中国现任与卸任的高级官员齐聚天安门城楼，站在毛泽东巨幅画像上方，俯瞰长安街。

The parade, which honors the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, is the highlight of a weekslong campaign by the ruling Communist Party to stoke nationalism, recast China’s role in that conflict, and project the party as the nation’s savior against a foreign aggressor, Imperial Japan.

这次纪念“二战”结束80周年的阅兵式是执政的共产党为期数周的宣传活动的重头戏，旨在煽动民族主义，重塑中国在“二战”中的角色定位，并将共产党塑造成对抗外国侵略者——日本帝国主义的民族救星。

As cannons fired 80 times to mark the anniversary, soldiers carrying the Chinese flag goose-stepped across a red carpet. Crowds watching the parade waved flags and saluted as the national anthem was played and the flag was raised.

随着80响纪念周年的礼炮鸣响，士兵们举着中国国旗正步走过红毯。观看阅兵式的人群挥舞旗帜，在众人的注视下，国歌奏响，国旗冉冉升起。

The evoking of wartime memories serves to rally domestic Chinese support in the face of economic uncertainty and rising tensions with the United States over trade and other disputes.  

在经济前景不明朗、中美贸易等争端持续升温的背景下，唤起战争记忆旨在凝聚国内的支持。

“The Chinese nation is a great nation that fears no tyranny and stands firm on its own feet,” Mr. Xi said in a speech. “When faced in the past with a life-and-death struggle between justice and evil, light and darkness, progress and reaction, the Chinese people united in hatred of the enemy and rose up in resistance.”

“中华民族是不畏强暴、自立自强的伟大民族，”习近平在讲话中说。“当年，面对正义与邪恶、光明与黑暗、进步与反动的生死较量，中国人民同仇敌忾、奋起反抗。”

Later, Mr. Xi, in a Mao-style suit, stood in the open sunroof of a Chinese-made Red Flag limousine as he reviewed People’s Liberation Army troops. He called out, “Greetings, comrades,” and “Comrades, you are working hard!”

随后，身着中山装的习近平站在一辆中国制造的红旗检阅车天窗中，检阅中国人民解放军部队，并高呼“同志们好！”和“同志们辛苦了！”

The troops turned their heads in perfect synchronicity as Mr. Xi’s car passed them, and responded in unison: “Follow the Party! Fight to win! Forge exemplary conduct!”

在习近平的检阅车经过时，士兵们的视线整齐划一地跟随，并齐声回应：“听党指挥！能打胜仗！作风优良！”

“This great victory fully demonstrates that the people are the creators of history and the true heroes, that the Chinese nation possesses tenacious vitality and extraordinary creativity, and that the Communist Party of China is the most reliable backbone of the Chinese people and the Chinese nation,” the party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, said in an editorial on Wednesday.

“这一伟大胜利充分证明，人民是历史的创造者、是真正的英雄，中华民族是具有顽强生命力和非凡创造力的民族，中国共产党是中国人民和中华民族最可靠的主心骨，”党的喉舌《人民日报》周三发表社论称。

China and Russia have echoed each other’s version of World War II and the role their countries played in ending it.

中俄两国在“二战”及各自在结束战争方面所发挥作用的表述上互相呼应。

“For both Xi and Putin, victory was costly, but incomplete. They believe that ‘hegemonic forces’ still want to impose a foreign model upon them and block their rightful place in the world,” said Joseph Torigian, an associate professor at American University. “Now, they want to use the memory of the war to inoculate future generations against western values and legitimate the global order they envision.”

“对习近平和普京而言，胜利的代价沉重却未竟全功。他们认为，‘霸权势力’仍然想把外国模式强加给他们，阻挠其获得应有的国际地位，”美利坚大学副教授约瑟夫·托里吉安说。“现在，他们想利用这场战争的记忆，使后代对西方价值观产生免疫，并为其构想的全球秩序正名。”

The parade is also a warning to countries like the United States that Beijing regards as seeking to contain China’s rise. And Mr. Xi offered an implicit message to Taiwan and its international supporters of the perils of any move toward formal independence.

阅兵也是向美国等国家发出的警告——在北京看来，这些国家企图遏制中国崛起。习近平还向台湾及其国际支持者发出一个不言自明的信息：任何走向正式独立的举动都是危险的。

“The stronger China grows, the more secure the world will be,” the official Xinhua News Agency said in a commentary this week. “The Chinese nation will not allow itself to be humiliated or bullied again, as it was by imperialist powers in the past.”

“中国发展得越强大，世界就越安全，”新华社本周在一篇评论文章中表示。“中华民族决不允许自己再像过去那样被帝国主义列强羞辱和欺负。”

The parade was expected to display new ship-destroying missiles and an array of weaponry — including undersea drones and crewless combat planes — that highlight China’s investments in military innovation.

阅兵式预计将展示新型反舰导弹及一系列武器装备——包括水下无人机和无人作战飞机——彰显中国在军事创新领域的投入。

The event opened under extremely tight security, with many roads closed ahead of time. Journalists had been told to assemble at a site shortly before 3 a.m. for equipment checks before being led to Tiananmen Square three hours before the start of the parade.

活动在严密的安保措施下拉开帷幕，多条道路提前封闭。记者们被要求凌晨三点前前往指定地点集合进行设备检查，随后在阅兵开始前三小时被引导至天安门广场。

The guest list of over two dozen world leaders is as notable for who is attending as for who is not, underscoring how much the divide between Beijing and the West has deepened, particularly over China’s close alignment with Russia in its war in Ukraine.

宾客名单上有二十多位世界领导人，缺席者与出席者同样引人注目，这凸显出北京与西方之间分歧的加深，尤其是在中国与俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中密切结盟的问题上。

Conspicuously absent are high-level representatives from major Western democracies including the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Australia.

显而易见的缺席者包括美国、英国、法国、德国和澳大利亚等西方主要民主国家的高层代表。

But the leaders of many Southeast Asian and Central Asian nations attended, and that, along with a gathering of a Eurasian security grouping in Tianjin that ended Monday, showed China’s success in strengthening regional partnerships.

但是，许多东南亚和中亚国家的领导人出席了这次会议，此外，周一在天津结束的欧亚安全组织会议也表明，中国在加强地区伙伴关系方面取得了成功。

”Xi is driven to gain acceptance of China as a central global power and to revise the international system to better suit China’s preferences,” said Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “He views the presence of other leaders at his parade as validating progress toward his goals.”

布鲁金斯学会约翰·L·桑顿中国中心主任何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)指出：“习近平致力于推动中国成为全球核心力量，并重塑国际体系以契合中国诉求。他将各国领导人出席阅兵视为对其目标推进的认可。”

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Tuesday said his country’s ties with China were at an “unprecedented” high as he met with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in a display of unity that they presented as a counterweight to the West.

俄罗斯总统普京周二与中国国家主席习近平见面时表示，俄中关系已“达到历史最高水平”，这是两国团结一致制衡西方的展示。

Mr. Xi hosted Mr. Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where the two held formal talks, as well as afternoon tea and a banquet. The Chinese leader said that relations between the countries had “withstood the test of a changing international situation and set an example for relations between major countries.”

习近平在北京的人民大会堂接待普京，双方在那里举行了正式会谈，并一起喝了下午茶和出席了晚宴。习近平说，“中俄关系经受住了国际风云变幻的考验，树立了大国关系典范。”

Mr. Xi also signaled that Beijing would continue to align itself closely with Moscow on issues of shared interest.

习近平还表示，北京将继续在双方重大关切的问题上与莫斯科协调立场。

One way in which the two countries have lately been in sync has been in how they have depicted history. Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin have echoed each other’s version of World War II and the role their countries played in ending it.

两国最近保持一致的一个方式体现在对历史的叙述上。习近平和普京在“二战”及两国在结束战争方面所发挥作用的表述上互相呼应。

Their meeting came on the eve of a military parade to be held in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The event is intended as an elaborate display of China’s military might and expanding global influence at a time when President Trump’s tariffs are alienating U.S. allies and rivals alike. More than two dozen leaders are expected to attend the parade, including the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran.

他们的会晤发生在中国将在天安门广场举行纪念“二战”结束80周年阅兵式的前夕。这场活动意在精心展示中国的军事实力和不断扩大的全球影响力，而与此同时，特朗普总统的关税政策正在让美国的盟友和竞争对手都感到苦恼。预计将有20多个国家的领导人出席阅兵式，包括朝鲜领导人金正恩和伊朗总统佩泽什基安。

The parade is the highlight of a monthslong campaign by China featuring speeches, films and television specials to put forward a version of the war that centers the Chinese Communist Party’s role in the fight against Japan. (Many historians believe it was the Chinese Nationalists, not the Communists, who did most of the fighting.)

这场阅兵式是中国数月宣传活动的高潮。宣传活动主要通过演讲、电影和电视特别节目进行，目的是将一种历史叙事推给受众，把中国共产党在抗日战争中的作用置于核心位置。（许多历史学家认为，中国抗日战争的主力是国民党，而不是共产党。）

Mr. Xi, in his meeting with Mr. Putin on Tuesday, praised the role of the Soviet Union and China in ending hostilities. The countries were the “main victors” of World War II and were determined to safeguard the results of that triumph as they push for a “more just and equitable” international system, he said.

习近平周二与普京会晤时，赞扬了苏联和中国在结束“二战”方面所起的作用。他说，中俄两国是“第二次世界大战主要战胜国”，两国决意“维护二战胜利成果”，同时“推动建设更加公正合理的”国际体系。

Mr. Putin, addressing Mr. Xi as a “dear friend,” called the victory in World War II evidence of both countries’ “readiness to defend historical truth and justice.” “We were together then, we remain together now,” Mr. Putin said.

普京把习近平称为“亲爱的朋友”，并表示，两国在“二战”中的胜利是它们“共同捍卫历史真相和正义”的证明。“我们过去站在一起，现在仍站在一起，”普京说。

习近平和普京的会晤发生在中国将在天安门广场举行纪念“二战”结束80周年阅兵式的前夕。

The Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany is central to Mr. Putin’s historical narrative, one that positions his war against Ukraine today as a similarly righteous and historic battle. With his planned attendance at Mr. Xi’s celebration on Wednesday, Mr. Putin appeared to be expanding that narrative to the Pacific theater of World War II and using it to underscore China and Russia’s expanding alliance.

苏联抗击纳粹德国的战争是普京历史叙事的核心，按照这个叙事，他如今对乌克兰发动的战争具有同样的正义性和历史意义。普京周三出席习近平的庆祝活动的安排，似乎意在将这个叙事扩大到“二战”的太平洋战场，并以此来强调中俄两国日益扩大的同盟关系。

For Mr. Xi, the wartime depiction is a way to burnish Beijing’s image at home as the country’s savior, and abroad, as a force for stability, as well as to support Chinese territorial claims over Taiwan, scholars say.

学者们认为，对习近平而言，这种战争叙事在国内是为了树立中共的民族救星形象，在国际上是为了树立中国维护稳定力量的形象，同时还用来支持中国对台湾的领土主张。

In one tangible sign of a deepening relationship, China announced it would offer visa-free entry for Russian tourists at least until September 2026.

两国关系加深的一个具体迹象是，中国宣布将为俄罗斯游客提供免签入境，至少持续到2026年9月。

But there was also evidence that the two countries’ positions were not perfectly aligned: The head of Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, told reporters on Tuesday that the company had reached a “legally binding” deal to build a long-awaited natural gas pipeline to China, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it had nothing to announce.

但也有证据表明，两国的立场并非完全一致：俄罗斯能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的负责人周二对记者表示，公司已就修建一条期待已久的对华天然气管道达成了一项“具有法律约束力”的协议，但中国外交部称目前没有任何可宣布的消息。

Analysts doubted that China would welcome more purchases of Russian gas. “I see limited need for even more cubic meters of gas supply,” said Yan Qin, the principal analyst for China gas markets at ClearBlue Markets, a carbon markets advisory firm.

分析人士对中国是否会接受购买更多的俄罗斯天然气持怀疑态度。“我看到对更多立方米天然气供应的需求有限，”碳市场咨询公司ClearBlue Markets的中国天然气市场首席分析师秦燕（音）说。

Beijing, Russia’s largest trading partner, has been an economic lifeline to Moscow since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Experts say the alignment — which the two countries call their “no limits strategic partnership” — is aimed at establishing an alternative world order with Beijing and Moscow on top.

中国是俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴。自从2022年初俄罗斯大举入侵乌克兰以来，中国政府一直为莫斯科提供着经济命脉。专家表示，两国所谓“无止境战略伙伴关系”是为了建立一个由北京和莫斯科主导的替代世界秩序。

In a veiled dig at Western leaders and Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin said on Tuesday that Mr. Xi’s vision for global governance was “urgently needed” at a time when such leadership is “in deficit.”

普京周二含蓄地嘲讽了西方领导人和特朗普。他说，在全球治理方面出现领导人“赤字”的时候，习近平提出的全球治理体系“非常及时和必要”。

Russia’s sprawling delegation included two deputy prime ministers, 10 cabinet ministers and the heads of Russia’s largest companies in oil, gas, arms production and finance, a sign of Beijing’s importance to an internationally isolated Moscow. The head of Russia’s central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, and of Russia’s main state broadcasting company, Oleg Dobrodeyev, were there as well, according to a roster published by the Kremlin.

俄罗斯派出一个庞大的代表团来中国，包括两位副总理、十位内阁部长，以及俄罗斯石油、天然气、武器生产和金融领域最大企业的负责人，这表明，对在国际上受到孤立的莫斯科而言，中国政府的支持至关重要。克里姆林宫公布的代表团名单还包括俄罗斯央行行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌琳娜，以及俄罗斯主要国家广播公司的总裁奥列格·布罗杰耶夫。

Mr. Putin lavished praise on his Chinese hosts, adding that the possibility of rain during the parade on Wednesday would have no effect on the celebrations. “The Chinese military will carry out this festive, solemn event with their usual brilliance,” he said.

普京大力称赞了他的中国东道主，并补充说，尽管周三举行阅兵式时可能会下雨，但这一点也不影响庆祝活动。“中国军队将以一贯的出色表现完成这场喜庆、庄严的阅兵式，”他说。

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India was losing patience with President Trump.

印度总理莫迪对特朗普总统失去了耐心。

Mr. Trump had been saying — repeatedly, publicly, exuberantly — that he had “solved” the military conflict between India and Pakistan, a dispute that dates back more than 75 years and is far deeper and more complicated than Mr. Trump was making it out to be.

特朗普曾——反复、公开、兴高采烈地——表示，他已经“解决了”印度和巴基斯坦之间的军事冲突，这场争端可以追溯到逾75年前，其深度和复杂程度远非特朗普说得那么简单。

During a phone call on June 17, Mr. Trump brought it up again, saying how proud he was of ending the military escalation. He mentioned that Pakistan was going to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, an honor for which he had been openly campaigning. The not-so-subtle implication, according to people familiar with the call, was that Mr. Modi should do the same.

在6月17日的一次通话中，特朗普再次提及此事，称他对结束军事冲突的升级感到多么自豪。他提到巴基斯坦将提名他角逐诺贝尔和平奖，这是一项他一直在公开争取的荣誉。知情人士称，他话里话外的意思是莫迪也应该这么做。

The Indian leader bristled. He told Mr. Trump that U.S. involvement had nothing to do with the recent cease-fire. It had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.

这位印度领导人勃然大怒。他告诉特朗普，近期的停火与美国无关。这是印度和巴基斯坦之间直接协商的结果。

Mr. Trump largely brushed off Mr. Modi’s comments, but the disagreement — and Mr. Modi’s refusal to engage on the Nobel — has played an outsize role in the souring relationship between the two leaders, whose once-close ties go back to Mr. Trump’s first term.

特朗普基本上没有理会莫迪的话，但这一分歧——以及莫迪在诺贝尔奖问题上的拒绝合作——对两位领导人之间关系的恶化产生了巨大影响。莫迪与特朗普的关系一度十分密切，这可以追溯到特朗普的第一个任期。

The dispute has played out against the backdrop of trade talks of immense importance to India and the United States, and the fallout risks pushing India closer to American adversaries in Beijing and Moscow. Mr. Modi is expected to travel to China this weekend, where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

这一分歧发生之际，印度和美国正在进行对双方都极为重要的贸易谈判，其后果可能会让印度进一步向美国的对手中国和俄罗斯靠拢。莫迪上周末前往中国，与中国领导人习近平和俄罗斯总统普京会面。

This article is based on interviews with more than a dozen people in Washington and New Delhi, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a relationship that has far-reaching implications for both sides, with Mr. Trump eroding a strategic relationship and India alienating its biggest trading partner as it tries to keep its economy afloat.

本文基于对华盛顿和新德里十余人的采访撰写，其中大多数受访者要求匿名，因为他们谈及的这种关系对双方都有深远影响：特朗普正在削弱这一战略关系，而印度在努力维持经济运转的同时却疏远了自己最大的贸易伙伴。

2020年特朗普访印期间，印度艾哈迈达巴德的通勤者经过特朗普和莫迪的肖像。

Just weeks after the June phone call, and with trade talks dragging on, Mr. Trump startled India by announcing that imports from the country would be subjected to a tariff of 25 percent. And on Wednesday, he slapped India with an additional 25 percent tariff for buying Russian oil, adding up to a crushing 50 percent.

就在6月通话的几周后，贸易谈判进展缓慢之际，特朗普宣布将对从印度进口的商品征收25%的关税，这让印度大吃一惊。上周三，他又因为印度购买俄罗斯石油而对其实施额外的25%关税，也就是总计高达50%的毁灭性关税。

Mr. Modi, who once called Mr. Trump “a true friend,” was officially on the outs. After telling Mr. Modi that he would travel to India later this year for the Quad summit, Mr. Trump no longer has plans to visit in the fall, according to people familiar with the president’s schedule.

莫迪曾称特朗普为“真正的朋友”，但现在两人关系正式破裂。特朗普曾告诉莫迪，他将在今年晚些时候前往印度参加四方安全对话峰会，但据熟悉总统日程的人士透露，他现在已没有秋季访印的计划。

In India, Mr. Trump is now seen in some quarters as a source of national humiliation. Last week, a giant Trump effigy was paraded around a festival in the state of Maharashtra, with signs declaring him a backstabber. The blows from the United States have been so intense that one Indian official described them as “gundagardi”: straight-up bullying, or thuggery.

在印度，特朗普现在在某些圈子里被视为一个让这个国家蒙羞的人物。上周，马哈拉施特拉邦一个节日的游行队伍中出现了一个巨大的特朗普人偶，标牌上写着“背后捅刀子的家伙”。来自美国的打击如此猛烈，以至于一位印度官员将其描述为“gundagardi”，意思是赤裸裸的欺凌或流氓行径。

The two men have not spoken since the June 17 phone call.

自6月17日通话以来，两人再未交谈过。

At its core, the story of Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi is about two brash, populist leaders with big egos and authoritarian tendencies, and the web of loyalties that help keep both men in power. But it is also the tale of an American president with his eye on a Nobel Prize, running smack into the immovable third rail of Indian politics: the conflict with Pakistan.

从本质上看，特朗普和莫迪的故事是关于两个张扬的民粹主义领导人——他们自负、带有威权倾向，并依靠一张忠诚网络来维持权力。但同时还有这样一个故事：一位觊觎诺贝尔奖的美国总统，正面撞上了印度政治中不可触碰的雷区——与巴基斯坦的冲突。

A Political Nonstarter

政治层面的徒劳之举

Few in India expected Mr. Modi to end up in this situation.

在印度，几乎没有人预料到莫迪会陷入如此境地。

He won his third term in office on the promise of transforming himself and his country into global players. And even if Mr. Trump was known to focus more on personal relationships and less on geopolitical strategy, the Indians thought that dynamic would work in their favor.

他凭借将自身与国家转变为全球参与者的承诺赢得了第三个总理任期。尽管特朗普以更关注个人关系而非地缘战略著称，印度方面仍认为此种态势对自己有利。

During Mr. Trump’s first term, he attended the large “Howdy Modi!” rally of the Indian diaspora in Texas. Months later, the American president visited Mr. Modi’s home state of Gujarat for an event branded “Namaste Trump!”

在特朗普的第一个任期内，莫迪出席了印度侨民在得克萨斯州举行的盛大的“你好莫迪！”集会。数月后，特朗普访问了莫迪的家乡古吉拉特邦，参加了一个名为“你好特朗普！”的活动。

Mr. Modi greeted him with a hug at the airport and then celebrated Mr. Trump with music, dancers and more than 100,000 cheering attendees.

莫迪不仅在机场以拥抱相迎，更用音乐、舞蹈表演以及超过十万欢呼的群众为特朗普举行庆祝盛典。

2019年，特朗普与莫迪在休斯敦的“你好莫迪！”集会上手牵手。2020年，两位领导人共同出席艾哈迈达巴德群众集会时，现场人潮涌动。

In Mr. Trump’s second term, foreign leaders have found success by tending to his ego with compliments and gifts. The British prime minister arrived at the White House with a letter from King Charles. The Finnish president bonded with Mr. Trump on the golf course. Even President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, whom Mr. Trump once berated in public, showed up at the White House and thanked him in front of the cameras.

在特朗普的第二个任期，外国领导人通过奉承和礼物来满足其虚荣心，从而达到自己的目的。英国首相带着查尔斯国王的信抵达白宫。芬兰总统与特朗普在高尔夫球场上培养感情。甚至曾被特朗普公开斥责的乌克兰总统泽连斯基也出现在白宫并在镜头前感谢他。

But what Mr. Trump wants most from Mr. Modi is a political nonstarter.

但特朗普最想从莫迪这里得到的却是政治层面行不通的东西。

If Mr. Modi were to be perceived as having caved to American pressure for a cease-fire with a weaker nation, the costs at home would be enormous. Mr. Modi’s strongman identity depends, in large part, on how tough he is on Pakistan. Acknowledging that Mr. Trump had a role, let alone nominating him for a Nobel for it, would be seen as surrender. For Pakistan, which has found itself in Mr. Trump’s good graces recently, the decision to nominate him for the prize came quickly.

如果被认为屈服于美国压力与一个较弱的国家达成停火，莫迪在国内的政治代价将是巨大的。莫迪的强人形象在很大程度上取决于他对巴基斯坦的强硬态度。承认特朗普在其中发挥作用——更不用说为此提名他获得诺贝尔奖——都将被视为屈服。而对近日重获特朗普青睐的巴基斯坦而言，提名他获得诺贝尔奖的决定来得毫不迟疑。

It is difficult to quantify exactly how much influence the United States had in resolving the latest outbreak of violence between India and Pakistan. Mr. Trump contends that he used trade as leverage to get the two sides to stop fighting. After these enticements and warnings, he said, “all of a sudden they said, ‘I think we will stop’” the fighting.

很难准确地量化美国在解决印度和巴基斯坦之间最近爆发的暴力冲突方面发挥了多大的影响。特朗普辩称，他利用贸易作为杠杆，让双方停止战斗。他说，在这些诱惑和警告之后，“他们突然说，‘我想我们会停止’”战斗。

India denies that.

印度对此予以否认。

Washington does carry a lot of sway on both sides, and historically, messages from American leaders have helped quell tensions. But the fact that Mr. Modi could not find a way to even subtly acknowledge some Trump role, given the stakes, shows how explosive the issue is for him. Analysts say the extreme rigidity of the Indian response also speaks to how power over the past decade has been increasingly centralized at the service of protecting Mr. Modi’s strongman image at all costs.

华盛顿确实对双方都有很大的影响力，从历史上看，美国领导人发出的信息有助于缓和紧张局势。但考虑到利害关系，莫迪甚至无法以哪怕是委婉的方式承认特朗普发挥了作用，这一事实表明，这个问题对他来说是多么敏感。分析人士称，印度的反应毫无转圜空间，也说明过去10年里，权力越来越集中，为维护莫迪的强人形象不惜一切代价。

“The idea that Modi would accept a cease-fire under U.S. pressure or that he needed or sought mediation — it doesn’t just go against his personality,” said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “It goes against Indian diplomatic practice. Modi sold his relationships with U.S. presidents as an asset — strategically and politically — and now the opposition is portraying his friendship with Trump as a liability.”

“认为莫迪会在美国的压力下接受停火的想法，或者他需要或寻求调解的想法，不仅仅是违背了他的个性，”布鲁金斯学会高级研究员坦维·马丹说。“还违背了印度的外交惯例。莫迪在战略上和政治上都把他与美国总统的关系作为一种资产来推销，而现在反对派却把他与特朗普的友谊描绘成一种负担。”

After the June call with Mr. Trump, Indian officials put out a statement saying Mr. Modi had “firmly stated that India does not and will never accept mediation” and that “President Trump listened carefully” and “expressed his support toward India’s fight against terrorism.”

在6月与特朗普通话后，印度官员发表声明称，莫迪“坚定地表示，印度不会也永远不会接受调解”，并称“特朗普总统认真听取了意见”，且“表达了对印度反恐斗争的支持”。

The White House did not acknowledge the call, nor did Mr. Trump post about it on his social media accounts. And yet, four days after he spoke with Mr. Modi, Mr. Trump mentioned the issue again when he announced a peace deal between Congo and Rwanda.

白宫没有确认这通电话，特朗普也没有在自己的社交媒体账户上发布此事。然而，在与莫迪通话四天后，特朗普在宣布刚果和卢旺达达成和平协议时再次提到了这个问题。

“I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for this, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping the War between India and Pakistan,” Mr. Trump posted. “No, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do.”

“我不会因此获得诺贝尔和平奖，阻止印巴战争也不会让我获得诺贝尔和平奖，”特朗普发文说。“不，不管我做什么，我都拿不到诺贝尔和平奖。”

‘This Is About More Than Just Russia’

“不只是俄罗斯的问题”

Mr. Trump says the tariffs on India are punishment for buying Russian oil and for the protectionist nature of the Indian market, a longstanding complaint for Mr. Trump and other American presidents.

特朗普表示，对印度征收关税是惩罚其购买俄罗斯石油以及印度的市场保护主义的举措，后者长期以来一直令特朗普和其他美国总统不满。

The White House insists that the two men have “a respectful relationship” and “remain in close communication,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement.

白宫发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中表示，白宫坚称两国领导人“关系融洽”，并“保持密切沟通”。

“President Trump was able to successfully bring peace to the conflict between India and Pakistan,” she said, repeating the assertion that India had flatly denied.

“特朗普总统成功地为印度和巴基斯坦之间的冲突带来了和平，”她重申了印度断然否认的说法。

But to many officials and observers, the colossal penalties on India in particular appear to be punishment for not falling in line rather than any kind of cohesive effort to reduce the trade deficit or cut off funding for Mr. Putin’s war. They point out that China, the biggest importer of Russian crude, has been spared.

但在许多官员和观察人士看来，与其说是为缩减贸易逆差或切断普京战争资金而采取的协同行动，严厉举措不如说是对印度不愿就范的惩罚。他们指出，俄罗斯原油的最大进口国中国没有受到影响。

印度科钦，工人们正在打包准备出口的对虾。

“If this was a real change in policy in trying to squeeze Russia, Trump could have put his weight behind legislation that would have imposed secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian hydrocarbons,” said Richard M. Rossow, the chair on India at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The fact that they have uniquely targeted India says this is about more than just Russia,” he added.

“如果这是试图挤压俄罗斯的政策的真正改变，特朗普本可以支持立法，对购买俄罗斯油气产品的国家实施延伸性的制裁，”战略与国际研究中心印度问题主任理查德·罗索说。“他们专门针对印度的事实表明，这不只是俄罗斯的问题，”他还说。

India is now alone with Brazil, led by a president who has antagonized Mr. Trump directly, in being subject to 50 percent tariffs, higher than any other country. (Pakistan came away with 19 percent.)

印度现在和巴西一样，成为了仅有的两个被征收50%关税的国家，这一税率高于其他任何国家，巴西的总统曾直接与特朗普作对。（巴基斯坦的关税最终为19%。）

Another point of tension has been the power of the anti-immigrant sentiments within Mr. Trump’s base. Indian officials believed early on that they could find common ground with the American right-wing movement but they were caught off guard by the rift among Mr. Trump’s supporters over H-1B visas, with much of the attention directed at Indians, who make up the largest holders of such visas.

另一个紧张点在于特朗普阵营内部反移民情绪的力量。印度官员一开始认为，他们可以与美国右翼运动找到共同点，但特朗普的支持者在H-1B签证问题上的分歧让他们措手不及，该签证最大持有群体印度人成为众矢之的。

Indian students also make up one out of every four foreign students in the United States, so Mr. Trump’s crackdown on student visas took the country by surprise.

印度学生还占美国留学生总数的四分之一，因此特朗普对学生签证的打击令印度感到意外。

Stephen Miller, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, has repeatedly complained to the president about the high numbers of undocumented immigrants from India, who are among those who have been rounded up and deported as part of Mr. Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration. The method and timing of some of those deportations caused headaches for Mr. Modi and made clear Mr. Trump would not be sensitive to the political realities the Indian leader was facing.

特朗普的高级顾问斯蒂芬·米勒多次向总统抱怨大量来自印度的无证移民，在特朗普打击非法移民的行动中，他们是被围捕和驱逐的对象。其中一些驱逐的方式和时机给莫迪造成了麻烦，也表明特朗普对这位印度领导人面临的政治现实毫不体谅。

今年2月，一架载有被遣返印度公民的美国军用飞机降落阿姆利则。

Planeloads of deportees in shackles and handcuffs arrived in India in February, causing an uproar just as Mr. Modi was departing for a trip to Washington.

2月，大批戴着镣铐和手铐的被驱逐者乘飞机抵达印度，当时正值莫迪启程前往华盛顿，这引起了轩然大波。

But at a friendly news conference during the visit that month, there were signs that the two sides could still find a way forward, with India buying billions of dollars more of American oil and gas, to assuage Mr. Trump’s grievance over the balance sheet.

但在当月访问期间的一场友好的新闻发布会上，双方仍显露出寻求突破的迹象：印度承诺增购数十亿美元美国油气产品，以缓解特朗普对贸易逆差的不满。

“We can make up the difference very easily with the deficit,” Mr. Trump said, with Mr. Modi standing next to him.

“我们能轻松弥补贸易逆差，”特朗普说，当时莫迪就站在他旁边。

‘Do You Believe Me or Trump?’

“你们相信我，还是特朗普？”

Then, in May, some of the worst fighting in decades erupted between India and Pakistan.

5月，印度和巴基斯坦之间爆发了几十年来最严重的战争。

The conflict began after 26 people were killed in a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir, a contested region between the two nations, while Vice President JD Vance and his family were on a visit in India. Mr. Trump dialed up Mr. Modi to express his sympathies.

印巴两国争议地区克什米尔的印度一侧发生恐怖袭击，造成26人死亡，当时副总统万斯及其家人正在印度访问。特朗普致电莫迪表达慰问。

As the fighting raged, with both sides firing drones and missiles over four days, the Trump administration stepped in to lend its weight for a diplomatic solution, with the vice president and the secretary of state making calls to both sides.

随着战斗愈演愈烈，双方在四天的时间里发射了无人机和导弹，特朗普政府介入，希望通过外交途径解决问题，副总统和国务卿分别致电双方。

Early in the evening on the fourth day of fighting, reporters were called for a news conference in New Delhi with rumors that a conditional cease-fire had been agreed to by the two sides. But just before India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, stepped up to the podium to make the announcement, Mr. Trump upstaged him by flashing an announcement of “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE” on Truth Social.

交火的第四天傍晚，记者们被叫到新德里召开新闻发布会，谣传双方已同意有条件的停火。但就在印度外交部长维克拉姆·米斯里走上讲台宣布这一消息之前，特朗普抢了他的风头，在Truth Social上发表了一份“全面、立即停火”的声明。

Minutes later, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, announced that India and Pakistan had agreed “to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.”

几分钟后，国务卿鲁比奥宣布，印度和巴基斯坦已同意“在中立地点就一系列广泛问题展开谈判”。

That statement in particular was galling to the Indians because it has been India’s policy for decades that the issue of Pakistan — especially in relation to Kashmir — is one for the two countries to handle alone, without third-party mediation.

这一声明尤其激怒了印度人，因为印度几十年来的政策是，巴基斯坦问题由两国自主解决，不需要第三方调解，特别是与克什米尔有关的问题。

5月印巴冲突期间，一名女子查看自己位于克什米尔的房屋的受损情况。一名在5月克什米尔地区战斗中阵亡的印度边防部队士兵的葬礼。

The shock and anger was clear on the faces of the Indian officials in the room. Mr. Misri stepped up and read his statement, making no mention of any outside role or Mr. Trump’s claim, and left. When reporters swarmed around other officials and asked about Mr. Trump’s declaration, one official pushed back: “Do you believe me or Trump?”

会议室里的印度官员们脸上明显流露出震惊和愤怒。米斯里站了起来，宣读了他的声明，没有提到任何外部角色或特朗普的声明，然后离开了。记者们围住其他官员，询问特朗普的声明，一名官员反驳说：“你们是相信我，还是相信特朗普？”

A Declined Invitation to Washington

拒绝华盛顿的邀请

By the time Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi got on the phone in June, there might have been an opportunity to mend ties and refocus on the ongoing trade negotiations.

6月通话时，特朗普和莫迪本有机会修复关系，将焦点转回到正在进行的贸易谈判。

But that did not happen.

但这并没有发生。

The call, which lasted 35 minutes, took place as Mr. Trump flew back to Washington on Air Force One after he left early from the Group of 7 industrialized countries meeting in Canada, which Mr. Modi also attended.

那通电话持续了35分钟，当时特朗普刚刚提前离开在加拿大举行的七国集团工业化国家会议，乘坐空军一号返回华盛顿。莫迪也出席了会议。

Mr. Modi declined an invitation from Mr. Trump to stop by Washington before he flew home. His officials were scandalized that Mr. Trump might try to force their leader into a handshake with Pakistan’s army chief, who had also been invited to the White House for lunch around the same time. It was another clear sign, a senior Indian official said, that Mr. Trump cared little for the complexity of their issue or the sensitivities and history around it.

莫迪拒绝了特朗普让他在回国前去一趟华盛顿的邀请。印度官员对特朗普可能试图迫使他们的领导人与巴基斯坦陆军参谋长握手感到震惊，后者也在大约同一时间被邀请到白宫共进午餐。一名印度高级官员表示，这是又一个明显的迹象，表明特朗普不太关心印巴问题的复杂性，也不太关心围绕这个问题的敏感性和历史。

Later on, there was talk of trying to set up another call to finalize a partial trade deal. But with the trust between the two leaders eroding, the Indians were wary of putting Mr. Modi on the phone with Mr. Trump. Indian officials were nervous that Mr. Trump would post whatever he wanted on Truth Social, regardless of what agreements were made on the call, a senior Indian official said.

后来，有传言称将安排两人之间的另一次通话，以敲定部分贸易协议。但随着两位领导人之间的信任受到侵蚀，印度人对于安排莫迪与特朗普通话持谨慎态度。一名印度高级官员称，印度官员担心特朗普会在Truth Social上发布他想说的任何内容，不管这次通话达成了什么协议。

Mr. Trump, frustrated by the tariff negotiations, reached out to Mr. Modi several times, according to two people briefed on the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss them publicly.

据两名了解讨论情况的人士透露，对关税谈判感到失望的特朗普曾多次与莫迪联系。由于没有被授权公开讨论这些问题，这两名人士要求匿名。

Mr. Modi did not respond to those requests, they said.

他们说，莫迪没有回应这些要求。

Ms. Kelly, the White House spokeswoman, denied that Mr. Trump had reached out.

白宫发言人凯利否认特朗普曾主动联系莫迪。

In the final stretch before the additional 25 percent tariff kicked in on Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced he was nominating Sergio Gor, a close adviser, to serve as ambassador to India, with the additional charge of special envoy for the region. (Indian officials were torn over how to read the nomination — Mr. Gor was close to Mr. Trump, yes, but they were offended that the “regional” envoy designation lumped India in with Pakistan.)

在上周三加征25%关税之前的最后阶段，特朗普宣布提名他的亲信顾问塞尔吉奥·戈尔担任驻印度大使，并兼任该地区特使。（印度官员对如何解读这一提名感到困惑——没错，戈尔与特朗普关系密切，但他们对“地区”特使的称谓将印度与巴基斯坦混为一谈感到不快。）

In the hours before the deadline, officials from the United States and India held a virtual meeting, discussing a range of issues from trade to defense cooperation.

在最后期限前的几个小时，美国和印度的官员举行了一次视频会议，讨论了从贸易到防务合作的一系列问题。

But not only have the additional tariffs gone into effect as announced, Mr. Trump’s advisers have continued railing against India. One called India’s approach to trade negotiations “arrogant” and another went as far as calling the conflict in Ukraine “Modi’s war.”

但是，不仅额外的关税如宣布的那样生效，特朗普的顾问们还在继续指责印度。其中一人称印度的贸易谈判方式“傲慢”，另一人甚至称乌克兰冲突是“莫迪的战争”。

Now, Mr. Modi, in public at least, appears to be moving on from talk of trade negotiations. Instead, he is talking about “self-reliance” and reviving his decade-old “Make in India” campaign as he continues to play to his home base.

如今，莫迪至少在公开场合似乎已不再谈论贸易谈判。取而代之的是，他开始强调“自力更生”理念，并重启十年前提出的“印度制造”计划，继续迎合他的选民。

And during this weekend’s trip to China — Mr. Modi’s first in seven years — he is expected to have a receptive audience for stronger and expanded ties with Beijing and Moscow.

在本次访华行程中——这是莫迪七年来首次访华——他有望获得积极响应，推动与北京及莫斯科建立更紧密、更广泛的合作关系。

Fighter jets will roar over Beijing and tanks will rumble past Tiananmen Square on Wednesday when China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, presides over an elaborate military parade designed to stoke national pride and show off China’s diplomatic heft.

周三，战斗机将在北京上空呼啸，坦克隆隆驶过天安门广场，中国最高领导人习近平将主持一场精心设计、旨在激发民族自豪感并展示外交影响力的阅兵式。

More than two dozen leaders, mostly authoritarian, are expected to attend. Joining Mr. Xi are President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran — the first time that the leaders of the four countries will gather in the same place.

预计将有20多位领导人观礼阅兵式，其中大部分是威权国家的领导人。与习近平一同出席的包括俄罗斯总统普京、朝鲜独裁者金正恩和伊朗总统佩泽什基安——这是这四个国家的领导人首次齐聚一堂。

China is using the parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The event is designed to showcase some of the nation’s newest weapons and draw attention to what the ruling Communist Party asserts are China’s unrecognized contributions to the defeat of Imperial Japan.

中国利用此次阅兵来纪念“二战”结束80周年。此次活动除了用于展示一些最新武器，还将突出中国为打败日本帝国所做出的贡献，执政的共产党认为这种贡献没有得到充分认识。

Security has been tightened across Beijing in preparation for the parade. Rehearsals have involved more than 40,000 soldiers, civilians and staff. The parade route will proceed along Chang’an Avenue, a central thoroughfare that passes Tiananmen Square and the entrance to the Forbidden City.

为了这次阅兵式，北京的安保措施已全面升级。彩排动员了逾4万人参加，包括士兵、平民和工作人员。阅兵队伍将沿长安街行进，这是一条经过天安门广场和故宫入口的中央干道。

Dictators, Neighbors, and One NATO State

独裁者、邻国和一个北约国家

Other guests who are expected to attend include Min Aung Hlaing, the chief of Myanmar’s junta and President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo, leaders who hail from countries with abysmal human rights records. Only seven of the 25 countries whose leaders are attending are considered free or partly-free by Freedom House, a Washington-based advocacy group.

预计出席的其他嘉宾包括缅甸军政府首脑敏昂莱和刚果共和国总统萨苏——两个人权记录极糟糕的国家。根据总部位于华盛顿的倡导团体“自由之家”的评估，25个有领导人出席的国家中，只有七个国家被认为是自由或部分自由的。

There is one notable outlier, Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia, a NATO member state considered one of the freest countries in Central Europe. Mr. Fico, a longtime critic of Western support for Ukraine, has worked hard to forge better diplomatic and economic ties with Beijing.

有一个引人注目的例外，那就是斯洛伐克总理菲佐。作为北约成员国，斯洛伐克被视为中欧最自由的国家之一。长期批评西方支持乌克兰的菲佐一直努力与中国建立更紧密的外交和经济联系。

Still, the convergence of so many decidedly undemocratic leaders “underscores China’s pull with autocrats as the world’s leading authoritarian power,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis.

尽管如此，如此多明显的非民主国家领导人的聚集“凸显了中国作为世界领先的威权国家对专制统治者的吸引力”，亚洲协会中国分析中心研究员牛犇(Neil Thomas)说。

Also telling, Mr. Thomas said, was that leaders from 11 of the 14 countries bordering China were represented, including Mongolia, Laos and Nepal, offering “a vivid demonstration that China is already a regional superpower.”

牛犇还指出，引人注目的是，与中国接壤的14个国家中有11个国家的领导人出席，包括蒙古、老挝和尼泊尔，“直观地表明中国已经是地区超级大国。”

What to Expect

预期看点

If the last victory parade commemorating World War II in Beijing 2015 is any guide, viewers can expect a heavily choreographed show with goose-stepping soldiers, bands playing stirring martial music and military aircraft flying overhead in tight formation releasing plumes of colorful smoke.

如果以2015年北京纪念“二战”胜利的阅兵式为参考，那么观众可以期待一场精心编排的表演，包括正步行进的士兵、演奏激昂军乐的乐队，以及紧密编队从空中飞过并喷出彩色烟雾的军机。

上个月在北京举行的阅兵式彩排。

Mr. Xi will likely review the assembled troops through the sunroof of a Chinese-made Red Flag limousine affixed with microphones which he will use to periodically belt, “Greetings, Comrades!”

习近平很可能会乘坐一辆安装麦克风的中国造红旗轿车，通过天窗检阅列队的部队，并不时高声喊出：“同志们好！”

Mr. Xi will then join the visiting world leaders to watch the rest of the parade. In 2015, World War II veterans were included in the event, waving from roofless buses.

随后，习近平将与来访的各国领导人一同观礼阅兵的其余部分。2015年的阅兵安排了“二战”老兵参加，他们从没有顶棚的巴士上向人群挥手致意。

Nationalism and a Recasting of the War

民族主义与战争叙事的重塑

The parade is the centerpiece of a broader campaign by the Communist Party to fan nationalistic and anti-Japanese sentiment. The party has promoted movies that focused on the brutality of the Japanese Imperial Army, packing movie theaters across the country, priming audiences for Mr. Xi’s message.

这次阅兵是共产党更大范围宣传运动的核心，这场运动旨在煽动民族主义和反日情绪。共产党大力宣传反映日军暴行的电影在全国各地吸引了大量的观众，为习近平所传递的信息提前营造氛围。

That fervor is politically useful to the party. By reviving memories of wartime trauma, the party has a way to rally domestic support in the face of a prolonged economic slump, youth unemployment and tensions with the United States. The campaign has also raised frictions with Japan. Last week, Beijing lodged a protest with Tokyo over reports that Japan had asked European and Asian governments not to attend the parade.

这种热情对中共来说在政治上极为有用。面对长期经济低迷、青年失业以及与美国关系紧张，中共通过唤起人们对战时创伤的记忆找到了一种凝聚国内支持的方式。这场宣传运动也加剧了与日本的摩擦。上周，北京向东京提出了抗议，因为有报道称日本要求欧洲和亚洲各国政府不要参加阅兵。

中国借助这次纪念活动来激发爱国情绪，并把中共塑造成民族的救星。

Mr. Xi is expected to highlight the larger role China played in World War II, something that is not typically recognized in the West. The recasting of the war serves two purposes: to cast the party as the nation’s savior, even though historians say the Nationalists did most of the fighting, and to buttress Beijing’s claims to territory — especially Taiwan — that it says Western nations have denied in the war’s aftermath.

预计习近平将着重强调中国在“二战”中发挥了更大作用——这是西方通常没有给予充分认可的说法。对战争的重新诠释有两个目的：一是将共产党塑造成民族的救星，尽管历史学家称大部分战斗是国民党进行的；二是为了强化北京的领土主张——特别是对台湾的主张，北京声称西方国家在战后否认了这些主张。

Modern Firepower for a ‘World-Class’ Military

“建成世界一流军队”的现代武器展示

The parade is expected to showcase some of China’s newest weapons that will help the country achieve its goal of building a “world-class” military.

此次阅兵预计将展示中国的一些最新型的武器装备，这些武器将帮助中国实现建成世界一流军队的目标。

That includes nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, next generation tanks and a host of uncrewed weapon systems. China says it needs a top notch army to maintain peace and to defend itself from outside aggressors such as the United States.

其中包括具备核打击能力的洲际弹道导弹、新一代坦克，以及大量无人武器系统。中国表示，它需要一支顶尖军队来维护和平，并抵御美国等外部侵略者。

Many of the new weapons expected to be unveiled at the parade appear designed to advance China’s capabilities for an invasion of Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing. Those include hypersonic anti-ship missiles that could potentially thwart the U.S. Navy coming to Taiwan’s defense, and combat drones that can help China’s military better navigate Taiwan’s mountainous terrain.

预计在阅兵中亮相的许多新武器似乎是为了提升中国武装侵台的能力——中国声称这个自治岛屿是其领土的一部分。这些装备包括可用于阻止美国海军驰援台湾的高超音速反舰导弹，以及能帮助中国军队在台湾多山地形中更好作战的无人机。

While the show of force is meant to highlight China’s might, it also comes at a time when the country’s military leadership is in disarray from a crackdown on corruption. Three of the seven seats on the Central Military Commission, the Communist Party’s oversight council that controls the armed forces, appear to be empty after members were arrested or disappeared.

虽然此次武力展示旨在彰显中国的实力，但也发生在该国军事领导层因反腐打击而陷入混乱之际。中共的最高军事领导机构中央军事委员会的七个席位中，似乎已有三个因成员被捕或失踪而空缺。

China is conquering the world in electric vehicles. Its automakers produce far more than any other country and outpace them on innovation. China’s appetite for gasoline-powered cars is fading by the week. In each of the last five months, battery-powered and plug-in hybrid cars made up more than half of all cars sold.

中国正在电动汽车领域征服世界。其汽车制造商的产量远远超过其他任何国家，在创新方面也遥遥领先。中国对汽油动力汽车的需求在不断下降。过去五个月的每个月里，电池驱动和插电式混合动力汽车的销量都超过了汽车总销量的一半。

But look closer at the industry, and the picture is not pretty. Already, fierce competition among automakers has gotten ruthless, with about 50 automakers fighting for customers by slashing prices again and again. Manufacturers facing ruinous losses are struggling to pay the companies that supply their parts. And yet they keep borrowing from state-run banks to build more factories, leading to extensive overcapacity.

但仔细观察这个行业，就会发现情况并不乐观。汽车制造商之间的激烈竞争极为残酷，大约50家汽车制造商通过一次又一次的降价来争夺客户。面临巨额亏损的制造商难以支付零部件供应商的款项。然而，他们还继续从国有银行借款，建设更多工厂，导致了广泛的产能过剩。

The frenzy has captured the attention of the highest levels of China’s government. Officials have started a campaign against “involution,” which they define as excessive competition. Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, led a Politburo meeting on the economy on July 30 that ended with a statement declaring, “It is a must to reinforce industry self-discipline to prevent vicious ‘involution’ competition.”

这种狂热已经引起了中国政府最高层的注意。官员们开始了一场反对“内卷”的运动，将其定义为过度竞争。7月30日，国家最高领导人习近平主持政治局经济会议，会议声明强调：“要强化行业自律，防止‘内卷式’恶性竞争。”

The results have been mixed. In early June, under orders from China’s cabinet, 17 automakers agreed to pay their suppliers within 60 days of receiving parts. But a government report on compliance on Aug. 11 listed only three automakers, all partly or entirely state-owned, as having set up systems for prompt payment.

成效好坏参半。6月初，根据中国政府的指令，17家汽车制造商同意在收到零部件后60天内向供应商付款。但8月11日政府发布的合规报告显示，仅有三家汽车制造商（均为国有或国有控股企业）建立了及时付款机制。

比亚迪主导着中国的电动汽车市场。

Even BYD, the world’s largest E.V. maker, is now running into trouble. It said on Friday that its profits fell by almost a third in the spring compared to a year ago because of price competition.

就连全球最大的电动汽车制造商比亚迪现在也遇到了麻烦。该公司上周五表示，由于价格竞争，其春季利润较去年同期下降了近三分之一。

Discouraging investment by carmakers has been difficult. Even with a slight slowing in July in response to the government’s admonitions, the industry’s investments were up 21.7 percent in the first seven months of the year, compared to the same period in 2024 — the fourth year in a row of torrid growth.

遏制汽车制造商的投资一直很困难。尽管7月的数据因政府的警告而略有放缓，但与2024年同期相比，该行业的投资在今年前7个月增长了21.7%，这是连续第四年出现强劲增长。

Overcapacity and price wars are a chronic problem across China’s economy. Debt-fueled investment pours into a succession of government priorities. This creates a glut of companies and factories that battle for a limited domestic market.

产能过剩和价格战是中国经济的一个长期问题。债务驱动的投资涌入一系列政府重点项目。这造成了大量企业和工厂激烈争夺有限的国内市场。

“Involution” in the auto industry also shows the cost of China’s investment-led growth strategy. For example, even a slight slowing in July of the pace of investment in manufacturing equipment dampened the entire economy’s performance.

汽车行业的“内卷”也显示出中国投资拉动型增长战略的代价。例如，7月份制造业设备投资的步伐即使只是略有放缓，也会拖累整个经济的表现。

Electric cars are a lot like smartphones or laptops: The more you make, the cheaper it is to make even more. Automakers are constantly building ever larger factories to grab more market share, even when that means selling electric cars for less and less money.

电动汽车很像智能手机或笔记本电脑：生产得越多，增产成本就越低。为了抢占更多的市场份额，汽车制造商不断建造更大的工厂，即使这意味着电动汽车的售价越来越低。

“This is a race to dominate, not a race to profitability,” said Bill Russo, the chief executive of Automobility, a Shanghai-based electric car industry consulting firm.

“这是一场关于主导权的竞争，而不是盈利的竞争，”总部位于上海的电动汽车行业咨询公司Automobility的首席执行官罗威(Bill Russo)说。

Last year, 129 brands in China were selling cars that ran mainly or entirely on electricity, and only 15 of them would be financially viable by 2030, according to an estimate by AlixPartners, a global consulting firm.

据全球咨询公司艾睿铂估计，去年，中国有129个品牌在销售主要或完全以电力为动力的汽车，其中仅有15个品牌在2030年之前具备财务可行性。

“More than that will keep going, but they will require deep pockets investors to keep them going,” said Stephen Dyer, the head of the firm’s Asia automotive practice.

该公司亚洲汽车业务主管斯蒂芬·戴尔表示：“更多品牌会继续发展，但它们需要财力雄厚的投资者来维持生产。”

在车展体验涉足电动汽车领域的消费电子公司小米的车型。

The roster of China’s top electric carmakers starts with BYD. It has stiff competition from the Geely Group, with its many brands including Zeekr and Polestar, as well as Tesla, which has struggled but is still a popular brand in China. The Chinese consumer electronics company Xiaomi branched into electric cars last year and its first model, the SU7, already outsells all but five other models in China.

中国电动汽车制造商的领军企业当属比亚迪。它面临着来自吉利集团的激烈竞争，后者拥有包括极氪和极星在内的多个品牌。虽然处境艰难，但特斯拉在中国仍是一个受欢迎的品牌。中国消费电子企业小米去年进军电动汽车领域，其首款车型SU7的销量已位居中国市场前列，仅次于另外五款车型。

Absent from the top of China’s E.V. rankings are four state-owned automakers with ties to China’s national government: FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile and the GAC Group. The government-owned giants are strong in internal combustion engines but weak in electric cars.

四家与中央政府关联的国有车企未跻身中国电动汽车排行榜前列，分别是一汽集团、东风汽车、长安汽车和广汽集团。国有汽车巨头在内燃机方面实力强大，但在电动汽车方面较弱。

Beijing is struggling to contain the industry’s overall capacity in part because the state-owned companies refuse to shrink to offset the growth of the private companies making so many electric and hybrid vehicles. Closing state-owned factories that make gasoline-powered cars and laying off their workers is politically difficult, especially in a high-profile industry like automobiles.

北京正在努力控制汽车行业的整体产能，部分原因在于国有企业拒绝缩减规模以抵消私营企业电动汽车和混合动力车激增带来的冲击。关闭生产汽油动力汽车的国有工厂并解雇工人在政治上是困难的，尤其是在汽车这样一个备受瞩目的行业。

Beijing is concerned partly because banks are potentially exposed to heavy losses if automakers and their parts suppliers cannot pay their bills.

北京的担忧一部分是如果汽车制造商及其零部件供应商无法支付账单，银行可能面临巨大损失。

As big employers in an industry that is the pride of China, automakers have the clout to make sure that others keep financing their losses. And banks have been under regulatory mandates to lend for clean energy technologies.

作为中国引以为豪的汽车行业的大雇主，汽车制造商有能力确保其他公司继续为他们的亏损提供资金。监管机构要求银行为清洁能源技术提供贷款。

比亚迪位于深圳的总部，摄于去年。距离这里五公里的高铁站旁正在建设一座新总部。

Auto parts manufacturers have had to accept being paid months late, and then have had to take out bank loans to keep going. Local governments, many of which borrowed to establish companies, now need to borrow even more to provide financial lifelines to companies.

汽车零部件制造商不得不接受延迟数月付款，然后不得不向银行贷款以维持运营。许多通过贷款创办企业的地方政府现在需要借更多的钱来为公司提供救命的资金。

The lots of car dealerships are bursting because of the oversupply problem. Yet powerful automakers insist that the dealers keep buying cars. All along, cuts in sticker prices have shrunk the value of dealers’ inventories.

由于供过于求的问题，许多汽车经销店库存爆满。然而，大汽车制造商坚持让经销商继续购买汽车。一直以来，汽车标价的下调使经销商的库存价值缩水。

“Dealers are forced to promote products at prices below cost, which drags down the credibility and sustainable development of the entire industry,” the dealership associations of four provinces in the Yangtze River Delta said in a joint statement this summer.

“经销商被迫以低于成本价促销，拖累全行业信誉与可持续发展，”长三角四省汽车经销商协会今年夏天在一份联合声明中表示。

Another outcome of the overcapacity is that Chinese manufacturers now export a fifth of their production, up from almost none before the Covid-19 pandemic. The exports have established China’s carmakers as global powerhouses at the expense of other countries’ car industries. That has been a central trigger for the trade backlash and tariffs against China in the West.

产能过剩的另一个后果是，中国制造商如今出口量占总产量的五分之一，而在新冠大流行之前，这一占比几乎为零。这些出口以牺牲其他国家的汽车工业为代价，使中国汽车制造商成为全球巨头。这一直是西方对中国的贸易反制和关税的主要导火索。

One force propelling China’s E.V. revolution that Beijing is unlikely to slow is the torrent of mechanical engineers graduating from universities — 10 times as many as in the United States. Two-thirds of Chinese youth now go to university, and while many struggle to find jobs, the auto industry is hiring engineers in large numbers.

推动中国电动汽车革命的一股力量是北京不太可能放缓的，那就是从大学毕业的机械工程师洪流——其数量是美国的10倍。现在三分之二的中国年轻人可以进入大学，虽然很多人求职困难，但汽车行业正在大量招聘工程师。

BYD alone employs 120,000 engineers, roughly the size of Tesla’s entire labor force. Young engineers earn less than $3,000 a month. Across the street from BYD’s headquarters in Shenzhen, 500-square-foot apartments in high-rises, developed in part by the automaker, rent for $350 a month.

仅比亚迪一家公司就雇佣了12万名工程师，大致相当于特斯拉的全部用工规模。年轻的工程师月薪不到2万元。在比亚迪深圳总部的对面，约46平米的高层公寓租金为每月2500元，比亚迪参与了这些公寓楼项目的开发。

3月，在吉利汽车旗下品牌极氪的宁波工厂组装车间工作的工人。

The result of it all — the engineers, the state-backed lending and the ferocious competition — is a remarkable pace of innovation.

这一切的结果——工程师、政府支持的贷款和激烈的竞争——催生了惊人的创新速度。

BYD’s Fangchengbao Bao 8 sport utility vehicle has a drone that can take off from the roof and be controlled from the dashboard. The aircraft can fly above the car as fast as 60 miles an hour. The car uses artificial intelligence to edit the drone footage and download it to the motorist’s phone.

比亚迪的方程豹8运动型多功能车配备了一架无人机，可以从车顶起飞，并通过仪表板进行控制。飞行器可以以每小时约100公里的速度在汽车上方飞行。汽车使用人工智能来编辑无人机拍摄的画面，并将其下载到驾车者的手机上。

The Yangwang U9, BYD’s top-of-the-line sports car at $235,000, does a rolling “dance” to different tunes by bouncing up and down on its hydraulic jacks. Its seats are designed to clutch passengers so they don’t get tossed around.

比亚迪售价168万元的顶级跑车仰望U9能通过液压千斤顶上下弹跳，随着不同的曲调完成动态“舞蹈”。其座椅采用包裹式设计，确保乘客在颠簸中稳固不移位。

Geely’s Zeekr brand offers luxury minivans with rear seats that recline into hammock-like beds. A wall separates the rear seats from the driver’s compartment.

吉利的极氪品牌提供豪华小型货车，后座可以倾斜成吊床式床铺。后排座椅与驾驶舱之间设有隔墙。

Those kinds of bells and whistles have allowed BYD and Geely sales to grow rapidly and lengthen their leads over Elon Musk’s Tesla.

这些花哨的配置让比亚迪和吉利的销量迅速增长，并扩大了对埃隆·马斯克的特斯拉的领先优势。

Tesla, which helped pioneer China’s electric vehicle market, is now stuck with aging models and is suffering gradually shrinking sales. On Monday, it cut prices for its Model 3. The company lacks an affordable sedan after several years of focusing on its brash Cybertruck, which is not even sold in China.

特斯拉曾帮助开拓了中国的电动汽车市场，但现在却陷入了车型老化的困境，销量也在逐渐萎缩。周一，该公司下调了Model 3的价格。几年来，公司一直以招摇的赛博卡车作为重点，但该车型甚至在中国都没有销售，特斯拉缺少一款廉价的轿车。

“Tesla sales year over year are down from 2024, so they’re not doing as well as they have been in the early years,” Mr. Russo said, and added that this, “has got to be a concern for Tesla because their global business is also under stress.”

“从2024年开始，特斯拉的销量逐年下降，所以他们的表现不像最初几年那么好，”罗威说，他还说，这“一定是特斯拉的一个担忧，因为他们的全球业务也面临压力”。