The Japanese government moved on Tuesday to allow the sale of more weapons abroad, in the latest shift away from pacifist policies imposed after World War II, as it grapples with rising security threats from China and a rapidly changing global order.

日本政府周二决定放宽对向海外出售更多武器的限制，这是二战后摆脱和平主义政策的最新一步。目前日本正面临来自中国的日益加剧的安全威胁以及快速变化的全球秩序。

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, at a cabinet meeting in Tokyo, reversed longstanding limits on the sale of Japan-made weapons overseas. The move comes days after Japan welcomed more than 30 NATO envoys for a visit meant to show stronger ties, and after Tokyo sealed a $6.5 billion deal to supply warships to Australia.

在东京的一次内阁会议上，日本首相高市早苗取消了对日本制造武器海外销售的长期限制。这一举措是在日本接待30多位北约特使访问以展示更紧密关系几天后做出的，此前东京还与澳大利亚签署了一项65亿美元的军舰供应协议。

Ms. Takaichi said in a post on X that the change was necessary in an “increasingly challenging security environment.”

高市早苗在X平台上发帖称，这一变化在“日益严峻的安全情势下”是必要的。

“No single country can now protect its own peace and security alone,” she said.

“如今，没有任何一个国家能够单独维护自身的和平与安全，”她说。

Ms. Takaichi, an outspoken critic of Beijing who rose to power last year, is seeking to shore up Japan’s defense industry and to build a more diverse network of allies, with increasing uncertainty over the reliability of its main partner, the United States. Japan hopes that easing the export rules can help strengthen deterrence in the region by showing China, North Korea and Russia that democratic countries around the Pacific are building a global arms supply chain.

对北京常有公开指责的高市早苗于去年上台执政。目前她正努力加强日本的国防工业，并建立一个更多元的盟友网络，因为日本对其主要伙伴美国的可靠性日益不确定。日本希望通过放宽出口管制向中国、朝鲜和俄罗斯表明，太平洋地区的民主国家正在构建全球武器供应链，以此增强在该地区的威慑力。

Japan, which adopted pacifism in the aftermath of World War II, has gradually eased limits on weapons exports over the past decade, allowing some exceptions, such as for rescue purposes, surveillance or under license agreements.The changes approved on Tuesday will unfetter defense contractors, allowing them to sell lethal weapons systems directly to 17 countries. That will permit Japanese companies to provide advanced frigates to the Philippines, for example, or submarines to Indonesia. But Japan will still prohibit the transfer of lethal weapons to countries in active combat, unless top officials determine that national security is at stake.

二战后奉行和平主义的日本过去十年已逐步放宽武器出口限制，允许一些例外情况，例如用于救援、监视或根据许可协议出口。周二批准的变化将解除对国防承包商的束缚，允许它们直接向17个国家出售致命武器系统。例如，这将使日本公司能够向菲律宾提供先进护卫舰，或向印度尼西亚提供潜艇。但日本仍将禁止向处于冲突中的国家转让致命武器，除非高级官员认定国家安全受到威胁。

Ms. Takaichi addressed concerns about Japan abandoning its postwar pacifism, writing that “there is absolutely no change in our commitment to upholding the path and fundamental principles we have followed as a peaceful nation for over 80 years since the war.”

对于外界担忧的日本将放弃战后和平主义，高市早苗写道：“我们作为和平国家在战后80多年所坚持的道路和基本原则绝对没有任何改变。”

2023年，日本护卫舰停泊在港口城市佐世保。

Japan is stepping up at a time when the United States is distracted by the war in Iran. The decision by the Trump administration to move some military assets out of Asia in recent weeks to support the war has fueled concerns about U.S. commitment to the region.

日本采取这一行动之际，美国正因伊朗战争而分心。特朗普政府最近几周决定将部分军事资产从亚洲调走以支持那场战争，令人愈发担忧美国对该地区的承诺。

“The idea that the U.S. would champion the global order has turned out to be sort of an illusion, and that’s a very inconvenient reality,” said Michito Tsuruoka, a professor at Keio University in Tokyo. “Now Japan is rushing to find viable alternatives for its own security and defense.”

“美国将捍卫全球秩序的想法已被证明是一种幻觉，是一个不得不面对的现实，”东京庆应义塾大学教授鹤冈路人说。“现在日本正急于为自身安全与防务寻找可行的替代方案。”

The shift in policy is aggravating tensions with China, which has accused Ms. Takaichi of reviving World War II-era militarism. China has unleashed a wave of economic reprisals against Japan over the past five months to punish Ms. Takaichi for saying Japan could intervene military if Beijing were to attack Taiwan.

这一政策转变加剧了与中国的紧张关系。中国指责高市早苗正在复活二战时期的军国主义。过去五个月里，中国对日本实施了一系列经济报复，以惩罚高市早苗的言论，她此前曾表示，若北京攻击台湾，日本可能进行军事干预。

Tensions have risen since last Friday, when Japan sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait. In response, China said on Sunday it was sending naval vessels through a waterway near southern Japan, near Kagoshima Prefecture.

自上周五以来，紧张局势进一步升级，当时日本派出一艘军舰穿越台湾海峡。作为回应，中国周日表示将派遣海军舰艇通过日本南部鹿儿岛县附近的一条水道。

Japan should “act prudently in military and security areas, and stop going further down the wrong path,” Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said when asked about possible changes to the export rules at a recent news conference.

中国外交部发言人毛宁在最近的一次新闻发布会上被问及出口规则可能的变化时表示，日本应该“在军事安全领域恪守承诺、慎重行事，不要在错误的道路上越走越远”。

Faced with the increasingly unpredictable foreign policy of President Trump, Japan has hedged its bets. Ms. Takaichi has welcomed a procession of European officials to Tokyo recently, including the leaders of Britain, France, Italy and Poland. In the coming weeks, she is expected to visit Vietnam and Australia.

面对特朗普总统日益难以预测的外交政策，日本选择了对冲策略。高市早苗最近在东京接待了多位欧洲官员，包括英国、法国、意大利和波兰的领导人。未来几周，她预计将访问越南和澳大利亚。

Last week, NATO sent its largest delegation to Japan since they established a partnership more than a decade ago.

上周，北约向日本派出了自双方建立伙伴关系十多年以来规模最大的代表团。

上周，日本外务大臣茂木敏充在东京接待了30多位北约使节，讨论合作事宜。

Anita Nergaard, the permanent representative to NATO for Norway, who helped lead the three-day visit, said Japan’s decision to export more weapons would be “really valuable to us, to Europe and the entire alliance.”

作为此次三天访问的主导者之一的挪威常驻北约代表安妮塔·内尔高表示，日本决定出口更多武器将“对我们、对欧洲以及整个联盟都非常有价值”。

“We are exactly at the point where need to turn those commitments and funding into concrete capabilities,” she said in an interview.

“我们正处于需要将那些承诺和资金转化为实际能力的关键时刻，”她在接受采访时说。

Japan and NATO both face the challenge of dealing with Mr. Trump, who has criticized Japan and NATO countries for a lack of support in the war in Iran.

日本和北约都面临如何与特朗普打交道的挑战。特朗普曾批评日本和北约国家在伊朗战争中支持不足。

Dan Neculaescu, Romania’s permanent representative to NATO, who also helped lead the delegation, said concerns about the role of the United States did not dominate the conversation in Tokyo.

同样帮助领导代表团的罗马尼亚常驻北约代表丹·内库拉埃斯库表示，对美国角色的担忧并未主导在东京的对话。

“We have had 70 years of the U.S. in NATO,” he said in an interview. “We can see the dynamics on the outside. But inside, the alliance is quite powerful.”

“我们在北约与美国共同度过了70年，”他在采访中说，“我们可以看到外部的动态。但在联盟内部，它仍然相当强大。”

He added that the spread of conflict around the world made it clear that “we have to work with Japan and they have to work with us.”

他补充说，世界各地冲突的蔓延清楚表明，“我们必须与日本合作，他们也必须与我们合作。”

Japan has gradually shifted its approach to weapons as it has sought a larger global security role. In 2014, Shinzo Abe, then Japan’s prime minister and Ms. Takaichi’s mentor, revised regulations to allow weapons to be exported for international security efforts, such as peacekeeping missions by the United Nations. That ended a strict ban that had been in place for nearly 50 years.

 随着日本寻求在全球安全领域扮演更重要的角色，其武器政策也逐渐转变。2014年，时任日本首相、高市早苗的导师安倍晋三修改了规定，允许武器出口用于国际安全努力，例如联合国维和任务。这结束了实施近50年的严格禁令。

The rules changed again in 2023, when Japan allowed the sale of advanced air defense systems to the United States under a license agreement. The move helped bolster American military stockpiles at a time when Washington was helping Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

2023年规则再次发生变化，日本允许根据许可协议向美国出售先进防空系统。这一举措帮助美国在援助乌克兰对抗俄罗斯期间补充了军事库存。

President Trump views himself as the master of coercive diplomacy, forcing his opponents to capitulate quickly to American demands or face the threat of attack.

特朗普总统自视为强制外交的大师，他认为可以迫使对手迅速屈服于美国的要求，否则就会面临遭到攻击的威胁。

But in dealing with Iran over the past six weeks, Mr. Trump has discovered that he is up against a nation that prides itself on resilience and delay. And never has that been more obvious than in recent days, when Mr. Trump has tried jawboning the Iranians by contending that they already surrendered — they “agreed to everything” he insisted on Friday, including turning over their “nuclear dust” — only to discover that patter doesn’t work with Iranian officials, who took to social media to declare he had made it all up.

但在过去六周与伊朗打交道的过程中，特朗普发现，他面对的是一个以韧性和拖延为傲的国家。最近几天，这一特点表现得尤为明显：特朗普试图通过宣称伊朗已经投降来施压——他在周五坚称伊朗“同意了他所有要求”，包括交出他们的“核尘”——结果却发现这些辞令对伊朗官员不起作用。伊朗官员随后在社交媒体上发声，宣称特朗普完全是捏造事实。

So over the next few days, assuming that Vice President JD Vance leaves for Islamabad on Tuesday for a second shot at agreeing to a “framework” for a deal, the two approaches are about to come into direct collision. If the stakes were not sky-high — the prospect of renewed combat in the Middle East, global energy shortages and the very real possibility that the surviving Iranian leaders emerge convinced they need a nuclear weapon more than ever — it would be a classic case study in negotiation styles.

因此，在接下来的几天里，假设副总统JD·万斯于周二启程前往伊斯兰堡，为达成协议的“框架”进行第二次尝试，这两种截然不同的行事风格即将迎头相撞。如果不是这件事干系实在重大——中东重燃战火的可能性、全球能源短缺，以及幸存的伊朗领导人极有可能认定他们比以往任何时候都更需要核武器——这本将是研究谈判风格的经典案例。

“Trump is impulsive and temperamental; Iran’s leadership is stubborn and tenacious,” said Robert Malley, who negotiated with the Iranians in the lead-up to the 2015 nuclear deal and again in a failed effort by the Biden administration.

“特朗普冲动且喜怒无常；伊朗领导层则固执且顽强，”罗伯特·马利表示。他曾参与2015年伊朗核协议的谈判，并在拜登政府的一次失败尝试中再次与伊朗人交锋。

“Trump demands immediate results; Iran’s leadership plays the long game," Mr. Malley continued. “Trump insists on a flashy, headline-grabbing outcome; Iran’s leadership sweats every detail. Trump believes brute force can compel obedience; Iran’s leadership is prepared to endure enormous pain rather than concede on core interests.”

“特朗普要求立竿见影的结果；伊朗领导层则在打持久战，”马利接着说。“特朗普坚持要一个引人注目、能抢占头条的结果；伊朗领导层则对每一个细节都斤斤计较。特朗普相信蛮力能强迫服从；伊朗领导层则宁愿忍受巨大的痛苦，也不愿在核心利益上让步。”

There is a reason the last big negotiation, completed 11 years ago, took the better part of two years, moving from secret talks with a then-new Iranian president with a pragmatic bent to a full-scale negotiation involving scores of meetings.

11年前的上一次重大谈判耗时近两年，从与具有务实倾向的新任伊朗总统的秘密会谈发展到包括数十次会议的全面谈判，这并非没有原因。

The final agreement ran more than 160 pages long, including five technical annexes that defined the limits on Iran’s nuclear activities, the pacing of sanctions relief and, most importantly, Iran’s obligations to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Every page, and most provisions, triggered an argument; just when old issues were resolved, and some kind of agreement seemed in place, the Iranian negotiators would arrive with new demands.

最终达成的协议长达160多页，其中包括五个技术附件，界定了伊朗核活动的限制、制裁解除的步调，以及最重要的是，伊朗配合国际原子能机构检查的义务。每一页，甚至大多数条款，都引发过争论；就在老问题解决、某种协议似乎即将达成时，伊朗谈判代表又会带着新的要求出现。

The Iranians have their own complaints about the Americans. The accord that was ultimately reached — not signed, because it was not a formal treaty — in 2015 was overturned by Mr. Trump in 2018. Ever since, the Iranians have made the point that it is pointless to negotiate with one president if the next one is going to scrap the resulting agreement.

伊朗人对美国人也有自己的抱怨。2015年最终达成的协议——之所以没有正式签署，是因为它并非正式条约——在2018年被特朗普推翻。从那时起，伊朗人一直强调，如果下一任总统会废除达成的协议，那么与这一任总统谈判毫无意义。

More recently, Iranian officials have noted that twice in a row, in June 2025 and again this February, Mr. Trump has ordered attacks on Iran in the midst of diplomatic negotiations. The Iranians cast this as perfidy, evidence that Mr. Trump is not a reliable interlocutor.

更近的情况是，伊朗官员指出，在2025年6月和今年2月，特朗普曾连续两次在外交谈判期间下令攻击伊朗。伊朗人将这视为背信弃义，证明特朗普不是一个可靠的对话者。

And the distrust turned into gunfire over the weekend, near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian boats opened fire on two freighters that they said were breaking out of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’s strict control of who can, and cannot, sail through the Strait. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy shot out the engine room of a huge Iranian-flagged container ship, which the Navy has now seized. Mr. Trump noted that the ship had been sanctioned by the Treasury in 2020, at the end of his first term, for a “prior history of illegal activity.”

这种不信任在上周末演变为真枪实弹的交火。伊朗船只向两艘货轮开火，称其试图冲破伊朗革命卫队对海峡通行的严格管制。周日，美国海军击毁了一艘悬挂伊朗国旗的巨型集装箱船的轮机舱，目前海军已扣押该船。特朗普指出，这艘船曾在2020年（他第一任期结束时）因“存在非法活动记录”受到财政部制裁。

“We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.

“我们已完全控制了这艘船，正在查看船上有什么！”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。

One way to interpret these moves is that they are efforts to shape the negotiating sessions, just as generals try to shape the battlefield. The Iranians are demonstrating that no matter what happens or what they give up, they will be able to control commerce across the strait and charge millions of dollars for passage. The Trump administration is demonstrating that it is willing to reopen hostilities if negotiations fail.

对这些举动的一种解读是，这是在努力塑造谈判局面，就像将军试图塑造战场一样。伊朗人正在展示，无论发生什么或他们放弃什么，他们都能控制海峡的贸易，并收取数百万美元的通行费用。特朗普政府则正在展示，如果谈判失败，它愿意重启敌对行动。

Mr. Trump reinforced that point on Sunday, writing that a good deal is on the table.

特朗普在周日强调了这一点，称一份理想的协议已摆在桌面上。

“I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY.”

“我希望他们接受，因为如果不接受，美国将摧毁伊朗的每一座发电厂和每一座桥梁。不再客气了。”

It was the latest example of how Mr. Trump has veered from complimenting Iran’s new leaders, who replaced those killed in the strikes that began Feb. 28, as “more reasonable” than their predecessors, to warning them of more violence ahead if he doesn’t get his way.

这是特朗普最新的一次态度摇摆——从称赞在2月28日开始的空袭中上任的新领导人比其前任“更理性”，到威胁如果他们不按他的意愿行事，将面临更多暴力。

But while that is a new element in the talks, the cultural divide in how to negotiate is not.

尽管这是谈判中的新变数，但双方在谈判方式上的文化隔阂并不是新鲜事。

That divide was evident 11 years ago, in the gilded halls of the 160-year-old Beau-Rivage Palace Hotel in Lausanne, Switzerland, where Secretary of State John Kerry and his counterparts from five other countries struggled to close a preliminary agreement with Iran. It was, perhaps, the closest analogue to what is unfolding now in Islamabad.

这种隔阂在11年前就已显而易见，当时在瑞士洛桑拥有160年历史的博里瓦日皇宫酒店镀金大厅里，美国国务卿约翰·克里与其他五国外长艰难地试图与伊朗达成初步协议。这或许是与当前在伊斯兰堡上演的情形最为接近的先例。

Every day the American delegation would speak about how many centrifuges had to be disassembled and how much uranium needed to be shipped out of country. Yet when Iranian officials — including Abbas Araghchi, now the Iranian foreign minister, stepped out of the elegant, chandeliered rooms to brief reporters, most of the questions about those details were waved away. The Iranians talked about preserving respect for their rights and Iran’s sovereignty.

美国代表团每天都会谈论必须拆除多少台离心机，以及需要运出多少铀。然而，当伊朗官员——包括现任伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格希——走出优雅的水晶吊灯房间向记者通报情况时，大部分关于这些细节的问题都被挥手挡开。伊朗人谈论的是维护其权利和伊朗的主权。

“I remember we finally got the parameters agreed upon at the hotel,” Wendy Sherman, the chief U.S. negotiator at the time, said on Monday. “And then a few days later the supreme leader came out and said, ‘Actually, some very different terms were required.’”

“我记得我们最终在酒店就基本框架达成了一致，”当时的美国首席谈判代表温迪·谢尔曼周一表示。“然后几天后，伊朗最高领袖出来说，‘实际上，我们需要一些非常不同的条款。’”

Ms. Sherman, who went on to become deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration, would go into these negotiations with a large posse. She often had the C.I.A.’s top Iran expert in the room, or nearby. So was the energy secretary, Ernest Moniz, an expert in nuclear weapons design. Proposals floated by the Iranians would be sent back to the U.S. national laboratories, where weapons are designed and tested, for expert analysis of whether the agreements being discussed would keep Iran at least a year away from a bomb.

谢尔曼后来在拜登政府担任副国务卿，她参加这些谈判时总是带着一大队人马。她通常会让中情局的顶级伊朗专家在场或随时待命。还有身为核武器设计专家的能源部长欧内斯特·莫尼兹。伊朗人提出的建议会被发回从事武器设计和测试的美国国家实验室，由专家分析所讨论的协议是否能使伊朗距离造出核弹至少还有一年时间。

But Mr. Trump’s negotiating team travels light, with no entourage of experts and few briefings. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the president’s son-in-law and the special envoy, learned their negotiating skills in New York real estate and say a deal is a deal. They say they have immersed themselves in the details of the Iran program, and know it well.

特朗普的谈判团队则轻装上阵，没有专家随行，也很少听取详细汇报。总统的女婿兼特使贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫的谈判技巧是在纽约房地产行业学到的，他们认为协议就是做交易。他们表示自己已深入研究了伊朗核计划的细节，并且非常了解。

Moreover, even if the issues they are facing are very much the same ones that the Obama-era negotiators faced, Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff see little value in spending hours poring over the diplomatic history, especially given what Mr. Trump had to say about the resulting agreement.

此外，即使他们面临的问题与奥巴马时代的谈判代表所面临的非常相似，库什纳和维特科夫认为，花数小时钻研外交历史的价值不大，尤其是考虑到特朗普对最终协议会作何评价。

But Mr. Trump is clearly sensitive about the coming comparisons. “The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” he said, using the acronym for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name for the 2015 accord. “It was a guaranteed Road to a Nuclear Weapon, which will not, and cannot, happen with the deal we’re working on.”

但特朗普显然对即将到来的这种比较很敏感。“我们与伊朗达成的协议将远远好于JCPOA，”他说，JCPOA是2015年协议正式名称“联合全面行动计划”的缩写。“那份协议注定会导致核武器，而我们正在制定的协议绝不会、也绝不可能让这种情况发生。”

And with that, Mr. Trump set up the test that his own negotiation, if successful, may be measured by.

由此，特朗普也设下了衡量他自己谈判成功与否的考验标准。

Note: Apple named John Ternus as its next chief executive on April 20.

注：苹果公司于4月20日任命约翰·特纳斯为下一任首席执行官。

Around 2018, Apple considered adding a tiny laser to its iPhones. The part would allow consumers to take better photos, more accurately map their surroundings and use new augmented reality features. But it would also cost Apple about $40 per device, cutting into the company’s profits.

2018年前后，苹果曾考虑为iPhone加装一款微型激光器。这个部件能让用户拍出更优质的照片、更精准地测绘周围环境，并使用全新的增强现实功能。但它也会让苹果每台设备的成本增加约40美元，从而压缩公司利润。

John Ternus, Apple’s head of hardware engineering, suggested adding the component to only the more expensive Pro models of the iPhone, said two people familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Those devices, Mr. Ternus reasoned, tended to be purchased by Apple’s most loyal customers, who would be excited about new technology. Average consumers, on the other hand, probably wouldn’t care.

据两位不愿具名的知情人士透露，时任苹果硬件工程主管约翰·特纳斯建议，仅在更高端的iPhone Pro系列上搭载该组件。他的理由是：该机型的购买者往往是苹果最忠实的用户，会为新技术感到兴奋；而普通消费者大概率并不在意这些功能。

Threading the needle between adding new bells and whistles to Apple’s products while watching the bottom line has defined the careful, low-profile style of Mr. Ternus, who joined Apple in 2001. He is now considered by some company insiders to be the front-runner to replace Tim Cook, Apple’s longtime chief executive, if Mr. Cook decides to step aside.

在为苹果产品增添花哨新功能与守住利润底线之间寻求平衡，这正是2001年加入苹果的特纳斯一贯谨慎低调的行事风格。如今，多位公司内部人士认为，如果长期执掌苹果的CEO蒂姆·库克决定卸任，特纳斯将是接替他头号热门人选。

Apple last year began accelerating its planning for Mr. Cook’s succession, according to three people close to the company who spoke on the condition of anonymity about Apple’s confidential deliberations. Mr. Cook, 65, has told senior leaders that he is tired and would like to reduce his workload, the people said. Should he step down, Mr. Cook is likely to become the chairman of Apple’s board, according to three people close to the company.

据三位了解苹果机密决策的不具名知情人士透露，苹果已于去年加速推进库克的继任计划。三人称，现年65岁的库克已向高层表示，他感到疲惫，希望减少工作量。三人还称，若库克卸任，他很可能将出任苹果董事会主席。

Despite his low profile, Mr. Ternus appears to have shot to the front of the pack to be Apple’s next C.E.O., according to four people close to the company. But Mr. Cook is also preparing several other internal candidates to be his potential successor, two of the people said. They could include Craig Federighi, Apple’s head of software; Eddy Cue, its head of services; Greg Joswiak, its head of worldwide marketing; and Deirdre O’Brien, its head of retail and human resources.

四位接近公司的消息人士表示，尽管行事低调，特纳斯已在潜在接班人中脱颖而出。但另有两位知情人士称，库克同时也在培养其他几位内部候选人成为潜在继任者，包括苹果软件主管克雷格·费德里吉、服务主管埃迪·库伊、全球营销主管格雷格·乔斯维克，以及零售与人力资源主管迪尔德丽·奥布赖恩。

Mr. Ternus, 50, is the same age that Mr. Cook was when he took over for Steve Jobs in 2011. Like Mr. Cook, Mr. Ternus is known for his attention to detail and his knowledge of Apple’s vast supply network. Both men are also considered even-tempered collaborators, capable of navigating the bureaucracy of one of the world’s wealthiest companies without ruffling feathers.

现年50岁的特纳斯与2011年接替史蒂夫·乔布斯时的库克同龄。和库克一样，特纳斯以注重细节、熟悉苹果庞大的供应链网络著称。两人也都被认为是性情温和、善于合作的领导者，能够在这家全球最富有的公司的官僚体系里从容周旋，同时极少得罪人。

Mr. Ternus’s rising profile has caused debate among Apple alumni and rank-and-file employees about whether he would lead like Mr. Cook, who succeeded by making the company more predictable and incremental, or Mr. Jobs, who laid the foundation for the company’s success with risky bets and visionary products.

特纳斯声望日隆，也在苹果前员工和普通员工中引发了争论：他究竟会怎样领导公司，是更像库克还是更像乔布斯？——前者通过让公司运营更具可预测性并采取渐进式发展而取得成功，后者凭借大胆的赌注和富有远见的产品奠定公司的成功基石。

“If you want to make an iPhone every year, Ternus is your guy,” said Cameron Rogers, who worked on product and software engineering management at Apple from 2005 to 2022.

2005年至2022年在苹果负责产品与软件工程管理的卡梅伦·罗杰斯说：“如果你想每年迭代一款iPhone，特纳斯就是最佳人选。”

The question for Apple is whether the company needs an innovator or another deft manager. While it has been years since the quick success of the iPhone and iPad, Apple has had many small hits under Mr. Cook and continues to be one of the most profitable companies in the world. Apple also faces tricky challenges, like navigating President Trump’s frequently changing tariff plans and its dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

苹果面临的问题是，公司现在需要的是一位创新者，还是另一位精明的管理者。尽管距离iPhone和iPad的快速成功已过去多年，库克治下的苹果取得了众多小胜利，至今仍是全球最赚钱的公司之一。不过，苹果也面临着棘手的挑战，比如应对特朗普总统频繁变动的关税政策，以及对中国制造的依赖。

Apple’s plans for artificial intelligence are also a big question. While other giant technology companies have spent tens of billions of dollars on developing A.I., Apple has largely been on the sidelines, and it has pushed off making major changes to its products with new A.I. technology.

苹果的人工智能布局也是一个巨大的问号。当其他科技巨头已投入数百亿美元研发人工智能时，苹果基本上处于边缘位置，迟迟未对产品进行基于人工智能新技术的重大改造。

It will be up to Apple’s board of directors to decide who will eventually replace Mr. Cook, who also sits on the board. The rest of the company’s eight board members did not respond to requests for comment, and Apple declined to comment and to make Mr. Ternus available for an interview. The Financial Times and Bloomberg previously reported on aspects of Apple’s succession planning.

最终谁将接替库克将由苹果董事会决定（库克本人也是董事会成员）。公司其余八位董事均未回应置评请求，苹果也拒绝发表评论，并拒绝安排特纳斯接受采访。《金融时报》和彭博社此前已报道过苹果继任计划的部分内容。

去年9月，蒂姆·库克在加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公司园区举行的活动中发表演讲。

Mr. Ternus, the youngest member of Apple’s executive leadership team, would be Apple’s first chief executive in three decades to have spent his career working on hardware. Unlike some of the other candidates to replace Mr. Cook, Mr. Ternus has worked on many of Apple’s devices as well as the global operations that manufacture those products.

作为苹果高管团队中最年轻的成员，特纳斯将成为苹果30年来首位职业生涯始终专注于硬件的首席执行官。与其他几位潜在接班人不同，特纳斯参与过苹果众多产品的研发，也深度参与了这些产品的全球制造业务。

But he would take over as a relative unknown outside Apple. Inside the company, he is known more for maintaining products than developing new ones, according to six former employees. And Mr. Ternus, who has been an engineer in Silicon Valley for all of his adult life, has limited exposure to the policy issues and political responsibilities associated with Apple’s corner office.

但若他接任，在苹果之外也是相对默默无闻的。据六位前员工透露，在公司内部，他更多以维护现有产品而非开发全新产品为人所知。而且，对于苹果最高职位所附带的政策议题和政治责任，这位成年后一直在硅谷从事工程师工作的高管接触十分有限。

A California native, Mr. Ternus received a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Pennsylvania, where he was on the varsity swim team. For his senior project, he designed a device that allowed quadriplegics to use head motions to control a mechanical feeding arm.

特纳斯是加州本地人，拥有宾夕法尼亚大学机械工程学士学位，大学期间曾是校游泳队队员。他的毕业设计是一款能让四肢瘫痪者通过头部动作控制的机械喂食臂。

In the four years after his graduation from Penn in 1997, Mr. Ternus designed headsets and other products at a virtual reality start-up. He then joined Apple, first working on screens for Macs as the company transitioned away from the colorful iMacs of the late 1990s.

1997年从宾大毕业后的四年里，特纳斯在一家虚拟现实初创公司设计头戴设备及其他产品。随后他加入苹果，最初负责Mac电脑的屏幕研发，当时苹果正逐步告别上世纪90年代末的彩色iMac机型。

Within about three years, he became a manager, said Steve Siefert, Mr. Ternus’s first boss at Apple. During that time, their team moved office floors, switching from a closed office plan to mostly open seating with a few offices. When he was promoted, Mr. Ternus had the option to move into one of those offices but declined.

特纳斯在苹果的第一任老板史蒂夫·西弗特说，入职约三年后，他就晋升为经理。那段时间，他们的团队搬了办公楼层，从封闭式办公室改成了以开放式工位为主、仅保留少数独立办公室的布局。升职后，特纳斯本可以搬进其中一间独立办公室，但他拒绝了。

Mr. Ternus was “a man of the people,” Mr. Siefert said, adding that the decision to sit with his team likely helped Mr. Ternus manage and motivate his staff. When Mr. Siefert retired in 2011, freeing up his office, Mr. Ternus once again said he wanted to remain in the open space.

西弗特说，特纳斯“平易近人”，选择和团队坐在一起的决定很可能帮助他更好地管理和激励员工。2011年西弗特退休，空出了自己的办公室，特纳斯再次表示希望留在开放办公区。

By 2005, Mr. Ternus had been promoted to lead Apple’s hardware engineering team for iMacs as it made the G5 series, said Michael D. Hillman, who helped hire Mr. Ternus and worked with him at Apple for more than a decade.

曾参与招聘特纳斯、并与他共事十多年的迈克尔·希尔曼说，到2005年，特纳斯已晋升为苹果iMac硬件工程团队负责人，主导了G5系列iMac的研发。

That team was working on using magnets to hold the computer’s glass screen in place, Mr. Siefert said. The technique was unusual for its time and faced skepticism, but Mr. Ternus still pushed for it.

西弗特回忆，当时团队正在研究用磁铁固定电脑玻璃屏幕的技术。这种技术在当时非常新颖，遭到了不少质疑，但特纳斯依然力推。

“When presented with such an out-of-the-box idea, he would champion it,” Mr. Siefert added.

“每当遇到这种突破性的想法，他都会全力支持，”西弗特还说。

Mr. Ternus spent extended periods of time working with manufacturers in Asia, Mr. Hillman said. Mr. Ternus traveled between the continent and Silicon Valley and learned how difficult it could be to have a manufacturing supplier deliver on Apple’s design expectations. Apple also paired Mr. Ternus with an external consultant to advise him on leadership.

希尔曼说，特纳斯曾长期在亚洲与制造商合作，往返于亚洲和硅谷之间，深刻体会到让供应商满足苹果严苛设计要求的难度。苹果还曾为他配备了一位外部顾问，专门指导他提升领导力。

2019年，约翰·特努斯在苹果全球开发者大会上讲解Mac Pro的内部硬件。

Mr. Ternus became a key lieutenant of Dan Riccio, his predecessor as Apple’s head of hardware. By 2013, Mr. Ternus’s role had expanded to include overseeing the Mac and iPad teams.

特努斯曾是他的前任、苹果公司硬件部门前任负责人丹·里奇奥的得力助手。到2013年，特努斯的职责范围扩大至负责管理Mac和iPad团队。

In recent years, Mr. Ternus has shouldered more responsibility for updates to Apple’s products. He spearheaded the iPhone Air, which was released last year with a new, slim design, and was a key leader in Apple’s transition from using Intel’s chips in Macs to using the company’s own chips in 2020. Mr. Ternus has also been involved in Apple’s experimentation with foldable phones, according to one of the people close to the company.

近年来，特纳斯在苹果产品的更新升级方面承担了更多责任。他主导了去年发布的iPhone Air项目，该机型采用了全新的纤薄设计；在2020年苹果将Mac电脑从英特尔芯片过渡到自研芯片的过程中，他也发挥了关键领导作用。据一位接近公司的消息人士透露，他还参与了苹果折叠屏手机的研发工作。

“He’s a nice guy,” Mr. Rogers said. “He’s someone you want to hang out with. Everyone loves him because he’s great. Has he made any hard decisions? No. Are there hard problems he’s solved in hardware? No.”

“他人很好，”罗杰斯说。“他是那种你想和他一起出去玩的人。大家都喜欢他，因为他很棒。他做过什么艰难的决定吗？没有。他在硬件方面解决过什么棘手的问题吗？没有。”

In a 2024 commencement speech at Penn’s engineering school, Mr. Ternus told graduating students that, in the future, they would be proudest not of specific projects but of the journey to make them all happen.

在2024年宾大工程学院的毕业典礼演讲中，特纳斯告诉毕业生们，未来能让他们最引以为傲的，不会是某个具体的项目，而是实现这些项目的过程。

“Now, while you’re on that journey, there’s going to be many times in your career where you have to take on something new,” Mr. Ternus said. “And sometimes, you might wonder whether or not you can actually do it.”

“在这段旅程中，你的职业生涯会有很多次需要接手全新事物的时刻，”特纳斯说。“有时候，你可能会怀疑自己到底能不能做到。”

Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, said on Monday that he would step down after nearly 15 years running an operation that rode the wild popularity of the iPhone to become one of the most influential and valuable companies in the world.

苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克周一表示，他将在执掌公司近15年后卸任。在此期间，苹果凭借备受青睐的iPhone一跃成为全球最具影响力和价值的公司之一。

Mr. Cook, 65, will move into a new role as Apple’s executive chairman in September and be succeeded in the company’s corner office by John Ternus, the 50-year-old head of Apple’s hardware engineering.

现年65岁的库克将于9月转任苹果执行董事长一职，首席执行官职位将由50岁的苹果硬件工程负责人约翰·特努斯接任。

The resignation of Mr. Cook will end one of the most successful management runs in the history of American business. During his tenure, Apple’s annual profit quadrupled to more than $110 billion, while its value ballooned more than tenfold to $4 trillion.

库克的离职将结束美国商业史上最成功的管理生涯之一。在他任期内，苹果的年利润增长了三倍多，达到1100亿美元以上，公司市值则膨胀至十倍多，达到4万亿美元。

Mr. Cook replaced the Apple co-founder Steve Jobs shortly before Mr. Jobs’s death in 2011, having earned a reputation for perfecting the nuts and bolts of a global consumer electronics business. Apple has since defined how a modern technology company operates, with products assembled in a supply chain that stretches from the giant operations that Mr. Cook helped create in China to India and Brazil and a popular retail business that operates on five continents.

库克在2011年史蒂夫·乔布斯去世前不久接替这位苹果联合创始人，此前他已因完善全球消费电子业务的运营细节而声名鹊起。此后，苹果定义了现代科技公司的运作方式：其产品组装供应链从库克在中国帮助建立的庞大工厂延伸至印度和巴西，拥有一个在五大洲运营的受欢迎零售业务。

“He stepped into the world’s biggest shoes — the biggest shoes that anybody on the planet has ever had to step into — and he’s done an amazing job,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s chief financial officer from 2004 to 2014.

“他接手的是世界上最沉重的担子——这个世界上没有谁曾需要扛下如此重的担子——而他做得非常出色，”曾在2004年至2014年担任苹果首席财务官的彼得·奥本海默说道。

Mr. Ternus joined Apple in 2001 and rose through its ranks as he oversaw the development of Macs and iPads. He will be Apple’s eighth chief executive since its founding 50 years ago and its third since Mr. Jobs returned in 1997 to pull the company from the brink of bankruptcy.

约翰·特努斯于2001年加入苹果，在负责Mac和iPad开发的过程中逐步晋升。他将成为苹果创立50年以来的第八任首席执行官，也是自乔布斯1997年回归、将公司从破产边缘拉回以来的第三任首席执行官。

“I am filled with optimism about what we can achieve in the years to come,” Mr. Ternus said in a statement. “I promise to lead with the values and vision that have come to define this special place for half a century,” he added.

“我对未来几年我们能够取得的成就充满乐观，”特努斯在一份声明中表示，“我承诺将以过去半个世纪定义这家非凡公司的价值观和愿景来领导它。”

2017年的约翰·特努斯，他将成为苹果创立50年来的第八任首席执行官。

Mr. Ternus will take over a company that has not created a new mainstream product in a number of years and faces questions about its business. Apple has lost several top executives in recent months, worrying investors about the depth of its next generation of managers and its long-term strategy, particularly with artificial intelligence. The company has largely stayed on the sidelines as the rest of the technology industry has committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars developing A.I.

特努斯接手的苹果已多年未推出主流新产品，业务面临诸多质疑。近几个月来，苹果有多位高管离职，这让投资者担心公司下一代管理层的深度以及长期战略，尤其是在人工智能领域。当其他科技公司已承诺投入数千亿美元开发人工智能时，苹果却基本置身事外。

Apple is also navigating increasingly choppy political waters, including whiplash over the Trump administration’s tariffs, a looming antitrust trial and geopolitical tensions with China.

此外，苹果正面临日益复杂的政治环境，包括特朗普政府关税政策的反复、即将到来的反垄断审判，以及与中国的地缘政治紧张关系。

In recent years, Mr. Cook, out of necessity, had become the technology industry’s leading diplomat, making regular visits to Washington and Beijing to try to manage the often conflicting agendas of President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader. As executive chair, he “will assist with certain aspects of the company, including engaging with policymakers around the world,” Apple said in a press statement.

近年来，出于现实需要，库克已成为科技行业的主要外交官，定期访问华盛顿和北京，试图平衡特朗普总统和中国领导人习近平常常相互冲突的议程。苹果在新闻声明中表示，作为执行董事长，库克“将协助公司某些方面的工作，包括与全球政策制定者接触”。

“This is not goodbye,” Mr. Cook said in a letter on Apple’s website. But, he added, it is a “moment of transition.”

“这不是告别，”库克在苹果官网的一封信中写道，但又进而称这是一个“过渡时刻”。

Apple remains one of the most profitable companies in the world, thanks to the stability of sales of its iPhones, products like the Apple Watch, and services including iCloud and Apple Pay.

苹果依然是全球最赚钱的公司之一，这得益于iPhone销售的稳定，以及Apple Watch等产品和iCloud、Apple Pay等服务的贡献。

Mr. Cook joined Apple in 1998 from the computer maker Compaq, transformed how Apple managed its product inventory and became its chief operating officer in 2007. In a 2010 commencement speech at Auburn University, he said Apple and Mr. Jobs had provided him with “the opportunity to engage in truly meaningful work every day.”

1998年从电脑制造商康柏(Compaq)加入苹果的库克彻底改变了苹果的产品库存管理方式，并于2007年成为首席运营官。在2010年奥本大学毕业典礼演讲中，他说苹果和乔布斯给了他“每天从事真正有意义工作的机会”。

Although Mr. Cook rarely discussed his personal life, other than his childhood in Alabama and his college years at Auburn, he also became one of the most prominent gay executives in corporate America.

尽管除了他在阿拉巴马州的童年和在奥本大学的求学经历，库克很少谈论个人生活，但他成为了美国企业界最知名的同性恋高管之一。

Despite years of success, Mr. Cook never shook the perception that he was not a technological visionary like Mr. Jobs. When he took over the helm of Apple in 2011, the release of new iPhones had already become cultural touchstones, as closely watched as the latest blockbusters from Hollywood.

外界认为库克不是乔布斯那样的创新家，多年来一直表现优异的库克始终未能摆脱这一看法。2011年接掌苹果时，新iPhone的发布早已成为文化现象，像好莱坞最新大片一样受到密切关注。

“It’s very difficult to innovate when you’re the size of Apple,” said Mike Slade, who advised Apple and Mr. Jobs on product and marketing strategy from 1998 to 2004. He added that Mr. Cook’s legacy was “continuous improvement in every aspect and fantastic new products.”

“当公司规模达到苹果这么大时，创新是非常困难的，”曾在1998年至2004年为苹果和乔布斯提供产品与营销策略建议的迈克·斯莱德表示。他补充说，库克的遗产是“在各个方面持续改进，并推出出色的新产品”。

In recent years, Apple has raised the prices of its devices and leaned on its services for growth, selling more software to be used in the more than one billion iPhones in use around the world. Its services business has steadily grown over the past decade, most recently accounting for about a quarter of its annual revenue.

近年来，苹果提高了设备价格，并依赖服务业务实现增长，向全球超过10亿部在用iPhone销售更多软件。其服务业务在过去十年稳步增长，最近已占到公司年收入的约四分之一。

But Apple has been seeing mixed results in other parts of its business, with slowing growth from wearables, which include the Apple Watch and AirPods, and sometimes middling sales in China. In 2024, the company made a disappointing foray into so-called augmented reality through its headset, the Vision Pro.

但苹果在其他业务领域表现喜忧参半，可穿戴设备（包括Apple Watch和AirPods）的增长放缓，在中国的销售有时也表现平平。2024年，该公司通过Vision Pro头显进军所谓的增强现实领域，结果令人失望。

苹果最近的一款新产品Vision Pro眼镜被认为令人失望。

Apple’s relationship with China has otherwise become a vulnerability. In addition to the country’s accounting, at times, for a quarter of Apple’s annual revenue, the company makes an estimated 80 percent of its iPhones in China.

苹果与中国的关系已成为一个脆弱点。除了带来有时能达到年营收四分之一的收入，该公司约80%的iPhone还是在这个国家生产的。

Mr. Cook has forged a relationship with Mr. Trump, who has criticized Apple for not making iPhones in the United States. Last year, Mr. Cook presented Mr. Trump with a 24-karat gold gift, as his company sought to avoid the president’s threats of tariffs on its devices. In 2019, Mr. Trump called Mr. Cook “Tim Apple,” a mistake the executive embraced by briefly changing his last name to Apple’s logo on X.

库克与特朗普建立了关系，后者曾批评苹果不在美国生产iPhone。去年，库克向特朗普赠送了一件24K金礼物，以帮助公司避免总统对苹果设备征收关税的威胁。2019年，特朗普曾误称库克为“Tim Apple”（蒂姆·苹果），他幽默地接受了这一称呼，一度在X平台上将自己的姓氏改成了苹果的标志。

“He calls me, and others don’t,” Mr. Trump said in 2019. “Others go out and hire very expensive consultants, and Tim Cook calls Donald Trump directly. Pretty good, and I would take that call, too.”

“他会给我来电话，其他人是不会的，”特朗普在2019年说，“其他人会出去聘请非常昂贵的顾问，而蒂姆·库克会直接打电话给唐纳德·特朗普。这很不错，我也会接这个电话。”

Mr. Ternus joined Apple four years after his graduation from the University of Pennsylvania in 1997. He initially worked on screens for Apple’s Macs and eventually became a key lieutenant of Dan Riccio, a longtime engineering leader at the company. As Mr. Riccio rose through the ranks at Apple, Mr. Ternus’s responsibilities expanded to include teams working on Macs and iPads. Mr. Ternus succeeded Mr. Riccio in 2021.

特努斯于1997年从宾夕法尼亚大学毕业，四年后加入苹果。他最初负责Mac电脑的显示屏工作，最终成为公司长期工程负责人丹·里奇奥的得力助手。随着里奇奥在苹果的职位提升，特努斯的职责范围扩大到负责Mac和iPad的相关团队。2021年，特努斯成为里奇奥的继任者。

Apple also said on Monday that Johny Srouji, who has led its work on its own chips, had been promoted to chief hardware officer. In addition to helming hardware technologies at the company, Mr. Srouji will take over Mr. Ternus’s role overseeing hardware engineering.

苹果周一还宣布，一直负责公司自研芯片工作的乔尼·斯鲁吉被提升为首席硬件官。除了领导公司的硬件技术工作外，斯鲁吉还将接过特努斯之前在硬件工程方面的职责。

Now, Mr. Ternus will prepare to face a concern that dogged Mr. Cook throughout his tenure: Can Apple create new, industry-changing products without Mr. Jobs at the helm?

如今，特努斯将要面对一个在库克整个任期内始终挥之不去的问题：没有乔布斯掌舵，苹果还能创造出改变行业的新产品吗？

“John is going to have to find a way to have Apple make products that make a dent in the universe again,” said Cameron Rogers, who worked at Apple in product marketing from 2005 to 2022. “Big companies don’t die, they become irrelevant.”

“约翰必须找到一种方法，让苹果再次推出能‘在宇宙中留下印记’的产品，”曾在2005年至2022年在苹果从事产品营销工作的卡梅隆·罗杰斯说，“大公司不会死去，它们只会变得无关紧要。”

In private, Iranian officials say they’re preparing to resume peace talks with the United States. In public, however, they are far more wary, even pugnacious at times, as they blame the White House for putting diplomacy at risk.

伊朗官员私下表示正准备恢复与美国的和平谈判。但在公开场合，他们的态度要谨慎得多，有时甚至显得咄咄逼人，指责白宫正在危及外交进程。

On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, refused to confirm if Iran would take part in a second round of peace talks in Islamabad this week. Asked about reports of a U.S. delegation planning to travel to Pakistan, Mr. Baghaei curtly called it “their own business.”

周一，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴盖伊拒绝证实伊朗是否会参加本周在伊斯兰堡举行的第二轮和谈。当被问及有关美国代表团计划前往巴基斯坦的报道时，巴盖伊简短生硬地称这是"他们自己的事"。

Iranian officials “do not see any serious sign of U.S. commitment” to a deal, he said.

他表示，伊朗官员“没有看到美国对达成协议作出任何认真承诺的迹象”。

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, then vacillated on the message. While noting the “deep historical mistrust” between Iran and the United States, he said that war would serve neither country’s interests. But soon he too was back with a warning that Americans “seek Iran’s surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.”

伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安随后对这一表态显得摇摆不定。他指出伊美两国之间存在“深刻的历史不信任”，同时表示战争不符合任何一方的利益。但没过多久，他又发出警告，称美国人“想要伊朗投降。伊朗人不会屈服于武力”。

All the while, several officials quietly said Iran was still planning to go to Pakistan and that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential head of Iran’s parliament, would lead the delegation if U.S. Vice President JD Vance also attends.

与此同时，多名官员私下透露，伊朗仍计划派团前往巴基斯坦，如果美国副总统万斯也出席，将由伊朗颇具影响力的议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫率领代表团。

If the messages seemed muddled, they reflect Iran’s quandary. Iran’s leaders are deeply distrustful of Washington, even as they know a deal is critical to easing the country’s dire economic crisis.

如果说这些表态显得混乱，那恰恰反映了伊朗的两难处境。伊朗领导人对华盛顿极度不信任，但他们也清楚，达成协议对于缓解本国严峻的经济危机至关重要。

They want to strengthen their own hand in any negotiations by showing American officials they will not negotiate if President Trump continues his bluster — from reasserting his naval blockade to insisting that Washington would obtain Iran’s nuclear stockpiles in a deal.

他们希望向美国官员表明，如果特朗普总统继续大放厥词——从重申海上封锁到坚称华盛顿将在协议中获得伊朗的核储备——他们就不会进行谈判，以此来增强自己在谈判中的筹码。

And they need to hold their hard-line base in check — which still feels emboldened by the war and does not want them to give ground in negotiations.

同时，他们还需要稳住国内的强硬派基础——这些人因战争士气高涨，不希望领导层在谈判中做出任何让步。

The clock is ticking: the two-week cease-fire between the countries is set to expire early Wednesday in Iran.

时间正在一分一秒地流逝：两国之间为期两周的停火协议将于伊朗时间周三凌晨到期。

Mr. Pezeshkian said for “reason” to prevail in negotiations that Iran wants stronger signs President Trump would stand by a deal.

佩泽什基安表示，要让“理性”在谈判中占据上风，伊朗希望看到能表明特朗普总统将恪守协议的更强有力迹象。

The president already pulled out of a previous U.S. nuclear agreement with Iran, officials point out. And he twice joined Israel in a war against Iran as they were trying to negotiate with Washington. Vice President Vance is expected to leave Washington for Pakistan on Tuesday, according to two U.S. officials.

官员们指出，这位总统此前曾退出过美国与伊朗达成的核协议。而且在伊朗试图与华盛顿谈判期间，他曾两次联合以色列对伊朗发动战争。据两名美国官员透露，副总统万斯预计将于周二离开华盛顿前往巴基斯坦。

Iran’s fiery rhetoric around the resumption of talks reflects the pressures that Iran’s leadership faces, said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran security issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

德国国际与安全事务研究所伊朗安全问题专家哈米德礼萨·阿齐兹表示，伊朗在恢复和谈问题上的激烈言辞，反映了伊朗领导层面临的多重压力。

One is its own hard-liners, emboldened that their leadership survived a five-week-long U.S.-Israeli onslaught, and who have rallied supporters almost nightly in cities across Iran, waving rifles and chanting against surrender.

其中一个压力来自国内的强硬派。他们因领导层挺过了美以长达五周的猛烈攻击而士气高涨，几乎每晚都在伊朗各地城市召集支持者，挥舞着步枪，高呼反对投降的口号。

“They have a core support base of the Islamic Republic, which is very hard-line and ideological, and is very sensitive to any sign of a concession,” he said.

他说：“他们拥有伊斯兰共和国的核心支持基础，这部分人非常强硬且意识形态化，对任何让步的迹象都极为敏感。”

“The other pressure, of course, is Donald Trump — and his apparent willingness to stick to his coercive diplomatic strategy.”

“当然，另一个压力来自唐纳德·特朗普——以及他显然愿意坚持其胁迫性外交策略的态度。”

He pointed to what happened over the weekend, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that Iran would reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

他提到了上周末发生的事情。当时伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐宣布，伊朗将重新开放具有战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。

Mr. Araghchi immediately came under criticism from media affiliated with Iran’s powerful and hard-line Revolutionary Guards. Less than an hour later, Mr. Trump said a U.S. naval blockade against Iran would continue. The next day, Iranian forces reimposed their own blockade on the strait.

阿拉格齐随即遭到伊朗权势强大的强硬派革命卫队旗下媒体的批评。不到一小时后，特朗普宣布美国对伊朗的海上封锁将继续。次日，伊朗军队重新对霍尔木兹海峡实施了封锁。

“I think the Iranians really do want a deal, but Trump is just too crude — he just wants total victory in public,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor of the regional news outlet Amwajmedia.com. “And the Iranians feel like time is on their side.”

地区新闻媒体Amwajmedia.com主编穆罕默德·阿里·沙巴尼表示：“我认为伊朗人确实希望达成协议，但特朗普太粗暴了——他只想在公众面前取得全面的胜利。而伊朗人觉得时间站在他们这边。”

Iran’s decision to block maritime traffic through the strait will have severe economic and geopolitical consequences for Iran, Mr. Shabani said. Still, he said, Iran feels it can withstand the pressure longer than Mr. Trump.

沙巴尼表示，伊朗封锁海峡海上交通的决定将给伊朗带来严重的经济和地缘政治后果。但他同时指出，伊朗认为自己能比特朗普更久地承受压力。

Some Iranian officials remain deeply concerned they could come under attack even amid talks, or that Mr. Trump could return to full-fledged war, said Sasan Karimi, a vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government, and political scientist at the University of Tehran.

伊朗前政府战略事务副总裁、德黑兰大学政治学家萨桑·卡里米表示，一些伊朗官员仍深感担忧，认为即使在谈判期间，他们也可能遭到袭击，或者特朗普可能会重启全面战争。

“Negotiators do not even know whether they could be attacked or not when they are in the air,” he said.

他说：“谈判代表们甚至不知道自己在飞机上时是否会遭到袭击。”

“They don’t want to fall into a trap, and they don’t want to have pressurized negotiations, whether that is by limiting the time or by setting preconditions,” Mr. Karimi added. “The Iranians, in those circumstances, would prefer war.”

卡里米还说："他们不想落入陷阱，也不想在谈判中承受压力，无论是时间限制还是设置前提条件。在这种情况下，伊朗人宁愿选择战争。"

When the war in Iran started on Feb. 28, Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.

2月28日伊朗战争爆发后，随着全球很大一部分石油和天然气供应中断，亚洲已经预计会出现严重但逐步显现的影响。然而，这场冲突给该地区带来的经济和社会冲击的猛烈程度和速度都远超官员和专家的预期。

Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic.

亚太地区多国正遭遇突如其来的剧烈冲击，难以应对。有人将这场危机的破坏程度和波及范围与新冠疫情相提并论。

Even if there is a peace deal soon, the future of this industrious region that has driven global economic growth for decades will likely include months of canceled flights, surging food prices, factory pauses, delayed shipments and empty shelves for products long considered quick and easy to buy worldwide: plastic bags, instant noodles, vaccines, syringes, lipstick, microchips and sportswear.

即便很快达成和平协议，这个数十年来驱动全球经济增长的勤劳地区未来数月仍将面临航班取消、食品价格飙升、工厂停工、货运延误，以及货架空空如也的局面——那些商品曾被视为在全球各地都可以随处轻易获得：塑料袋、方便面、疫苗、注射器、口红、微芯片和运动服。

Collectively, according to many officials and experts, if the war’s strangling of commercial traffic through the Middle East lasts for even a few more weeks, and uncertainty lingers, shortages could push several countries into convulsions of unrest, followed by recession.

多位官员和专家一致认为，如果战争对中东商业航运的扼制再持续哪怕几周，且不确定性持续存在，物资短缺可能会导致多个国家爆发动荡，继而陷入经济衰退。

Countless businesses are verging on insolvency. Governments are taking on enormous debt to slow inflation. By year’s end, in the most dire projections by the United Nations and others, millions across Asia could be pushed into poverty.

无数企业濒临破产。各国政府正背负高额债务以抑制通胀。根据联合国等机构最悲观的预测，到今年年底，亚洲可能有数以百万计人陷入贫困。

“The impacts are so rapid and deep,” said Phillip Cornell, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center who is based in Sri Lanka. “Just from a magnitude perspective, this is really very, very, very large.”

大西洋理事会全球能源中心驻斯里兰卡高级研究员菲利普·康奈尔表示："影响来得如此迅猛且深入。单从规模来看，这确实非常、非常、非常巨大。"

Resource scarcity tends to unleash dark forces in human psychology and capitalism. As the International Monetary Fund has noted, the world economy is slowing nearly everywhere because roughly a fifth of the world’s fossil fuels have been held back from the global market since the war started. Even if the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes tomorrow, it could take years for oil and gas output and shipping to reach fat prewar levels.

资源稀缺往往会释放出人类心理和资本主义中的阴暗面。正如国际货币基金组织所指出，全球经济几乎所有地区都在放缓，因为自战争爆发以来，全球约五分之一的化石燃料被排除在全球市场之外。即便霍尔木兹海峡明天就恢复稳定，油气产量和航运也可能需要数年时间才能恢复到战前的充裕水平。

本月德黑兰的一幅壁画展现了伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的掌控决心。

The Asia-Pacific has been the war’s first and worst zone of impact outside the Middle East because:

亚太地区之所以成为中东以外受战争冲击最早且最严重的地区，是因为：

1) the Asia-Pacific relies more heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports than almost anywhere else in the world;

1）亚太地区对中东能源进口的依赖程度几乎高于世界上任何其他地区；

2) the massive regional economy is deeply integrated, with supply chains crisscrossing borders in ways that are heavily reliant on fossil fuels;

2）这个庞大的区域经济体高度一体化，供应链跨越国界，且在很大程度上依赖化石燃料；

3) even before the war started in February, Asia’s energy capacity was falling short of demand. The backlog for energy generation turbines now affecting global data-center growth started with surging power demands from Southeast Asia’s industrial hubs.

3）早在2月战争爆发前，亚洲的能源产能就已无法满足需求。目前影响全球数据中心建设的发电涡轮机订单积压问题，正是始于东南亚工业中心激增的电力需求。

Wealthier countries, including China, face less immediate risk, with bigger fuel reserves and budgets. But comfort is neither permanent nor widespread. The rest of Asia, excluding China, is responsible for as much of the global economy as the United States or Europe. And many countries in that group have been struggling more than is publicly known.

包括中国在内的较富裕国家拥有更多的燃料储备和财政预算，面临的即时风险较小。但这种安稳既非永久，也不普遍。除中国外的亚洲其他地区在全球经济中的占比与美国或欧洲相当。而该地区许多国家的困境远比外界所知更为严峻。

In interviews, farmers in Vietnam, laborers in India, innkeepers in Sri Lanka, drivers in the Philippines, and executives in Hong Kong and Singapore all sounded more worried than many of the region’s politicians, who are seeking to project a stoic calm that often understates the scramble occurring offscreen.

在采访中，越南的农民、印度的工人、斯里兰卡的旅馆老板、菲律宾的司机，以及香港和新加坡的企业高管都比该地区许多政界人士表现得更为担忧。那些政界人士试图摆出泰然自若的姿态，却往往低估了幕后正在发生的混乱。

由于电费飙升，加之农民面临燃料和化肥价格上涨的困境，越南的大米加工厂已放缓了生产。

Transportation, manufacturing and upward mobility — three pillars of stability in Asia — are all confronting powerful shock waves.

交通、制造业和社会向上流动性是三大亚洲稳定的三大支柱，如今都正遭遇强烈的冲击波。

A Sprawling Transportation Crisis

蔓延的交通危机

The United States and Israel started the war in Iran on Feb. 28. Within hours, trucks, ships and planes stopped operating in Asia, a region defined by near-constant motion across land, sky and sea.

2月28日，美国和以色列发动了对伊朗的战争。数小时内，在亚洲，卡车、轮船和飞机纷纷停摆，而这个地区向来以陆、海、空三路近乎不间断的流动为特征。

Air travel, the strongest example of Asia’s transportation reversal, veered toward chaos.

航空业是亚洲交通变化最鲜明的例子，如今已陷入近乎混乱的状态。

In March, there were more than 92,000 flights canceled worldwide, doubling the prewar rate of cancellation, with the largest spike in eliminated flights linked to the Asia-Pacific.

3月，全球取消航班超过9.2万架次，是战前取消率的两倍，其中亚太地区的航班取消增幅最为显著。

Carriers flying through the Middle East, where 24 million migrant workers from South and Southeast Asia are employed, suspended trips to Dubai and other Gulf hubs right away. With jet fuel nearly doubling in price and with its availability threatened, airlines are slashing many more routes indefinitely.

中东地区雇佣了来自南亚和东南亚的2400万移民工人，途经该地区的航空公司立即暂停了飞往迪拜和其他海湾枢纽的航班。随着航空燃油价格几乎翻倍且供应受到威胁，航空公司正无限期削减更多航线。

Qantas, Air New Zealand, Lion Air of Indonesia, VietJet, AirAsia, Air India and Cathay Pacific are just a few of the companies cutting service. Batik Air of Malaysia has gone further than most, cutting flights by 35 percent this month to avoid insolvency.

澳洲航空、新西兰航空、印尼狮航、越捷航空、亚洲航空、印度航空和国泰航空只是削减服务的众多公司中的几家。马来西亚峇迪航空的举措更为激进，本月已削减35%的航班以避免破产。

去年吉隆坡国际机场的飞机。马来西亚峇迪航空本月将国内航线运力削减了35%，以避免破产。

Shukor Yusof from Endau Analytics, an airline advisory firm in Singapore, estimates that air traffic for Asia and the Pacific has already dropped by a third. Smaller airlines are losing millions of dollars weekly. Larger, better capitalized airlines in the region may survive, but discount players that buy more fuel on spot markets will likely shrivel, merge or die.

新加坡航空咨询公司Endau Analytics的舒库尔·优素福估计，亚太地区的航空客流量已下降三分之一。小型航空公司每周亏损数以百万计美元。该地区资本更雄厚的大型航空公司或许能幸存下来，但那些更多依赖现货市场购买燃油的廉价航空公司，很可能会萎缩、合并或倒闭。

“Even if the cease-fire holds, because of the chokehold that’s been triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of fuel is going to just be a trickle,” Mr. Yusof said.

优素福表示：“即便停火协议得以维持，由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发的供应瓶颈，燃油供应仍将只是涓涓细流。”

“It’s massive in the scale of things, unprecedented in the industry,” he added. “Even with Covid, we weren’t gripped to our seats like we are now.”

“这件事的规模之大，在行业内前所未有，”他还说。“即便是新冠疫情期间，我们也没有像现在这样坐立不安。”

Airports and airlines are not the only victims. Remote areas, from outback towns in Australia to the craggy foothills of the Himalayas, are slipping further into isolation. Travel agencies, hotels and restaurants are also grappling with a sudden collapse in business.

机场和航空公司并非仅有的受害者。从澳大利亚内陆城镇到喜马拉雅山脉崎岖的山麓，偏远地区正进一步陷入孤立。旅行社、酒店和餐馆也在应对业务的突然崩溃。

“Airline prices have tripled,” said Samath Gammampila, 39, director of Unu Boutique Hotel in Sri Lanka’s southern beach town of Ahangama. “We’re seeing about an 80 to 90 percent drop in occupancy.”

斯里兰卡南部海滨小镇阿汉加马的Unu精品酒店总监、39岁的萨马特·甘马姆皮拉说：“机票价格涨了两倍。我们的入住率下降了80%到90%。”

斯里兰卡米里萨海滩上的游客。南亚部分酒店的入住率大幅下滑。

Interviews and official forecasts suggest the rest of the year could be as bad or worse in many countries.

采访和官方预测显示，对许多国家而言，今年剩下的时间可能同样糟糕，甚至更糟。

Halted Production

生产全面停滞

Many of Asia’s most successful export industries require enormous amounts of energy and other ingredients from the Middle East. Seven weeks in, stockpiles are running out.

亚洲许多最成功的出口产业都需要消耗大量能源和来自中东的其他原材料。战争爆发七周后，库存已濒临耗尽。

Cutbacks in manufacturing are now multiplying, revealing vulnerabilities rarely considered.

制造业的减产正呈指数级蔓延，暴露出此前鲜少被考虑到的脆弱性。

Copper and nickel production, for example, rely on high heat from natural gas and also sulfur, a fossil fuel byproduct. Both are in short supply, forcing several Indonesian nickel processors to reduce output by at least 10 percent.

例如，铜和镍的生产依赖天然气提供的高温，以及化石燃料的副产品硫磺。两者目前都供应短缺，迫使印尼多家镍加工商将产量至少削减10%。

位于印度尼西亚苏拉威西省东南部北科纳韦的一处镍矿开采点。镍的生产需要使用天然气进行高温加工，同时也需要硫磺。由于伊朗周边的封锁，这两种资源都供应短缺。

Polyester and nylon are also derived from petroleum. In the sewing hubs of Bangladesh, Gazipur and Ashulia, where clothes are made for Wal-Mart, Zara and Uniqlo, severe disruptions to production and shipment schedules are common and on track to worsen.

聚酯和尼龙也源自石油。在孟加拉国为沃尔玛、Zara和优衣库生产服装的加济布尔和阿舒利亚缝纫中心，生产和运输计划的严重中断已成为常态，且情况还在恶化。

“The strain we are under now — managing it will become very tough if there is no continuity in gas or fuel supply,” said Abdullah Hil Nakib, deputy managing director of TEAM, a Bangladeshi garment factory group. “We are seeing that the prices of our raw materials are also rising. Today the price of thread has almost doubled.”

孟加拉国服装制造集团TEAM的副总经理阿卜杜拉·希尔·纳基布说：“我们目前承受着压力——如果天然气或燃料供应无法持续，管理起来将变得非常困难。我们还看到原材料价格也在上涨。如今线的价格几乎翻了一番。”

孟加拉国达卡郊区一家服装厂的工人。该国各缝纫中心普遍出现了生产和发货计划的严重中断。

Move on to higher-end manufacturing, and to helium, a gas byproduct used for semiconductors, and stress levels increase. Qatar, which normally produces nearly one third ​of the world’s supply, had to halt production on March 2 after an attack on its gas plants by Iran.

再看高端制造业，以及用于半导体生产的氦气，压力更是陡增。卡塔尔通常供应全球近三分之一的氦气，但在3月2日其天然气厂遭到伊朗袭击后，不得不暂停生产。

Prices have soared, and some Asian chipmakers are slowing production and reconsidering sources of supply.

氦气价格飙升，部分亚洲芯片制造商已开始放缓生产，并重新考虑供应来源。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest producer of high-end chips, had previously accepted helium from Qatar and the United States. On Thursday, the company said on an earnings call that it had enough on hand to avoid a near-term impact.

全球最大的高端芯片生产商台积电此前一直从卡塔尔和美国采购氦气。该公司在周四的财报电话会议上表示，目前有足够的库存，短期内不会受到影响。

But a prolonged shortage could force the company and other chip makers to accept supply from other locations, like Russia, the world’s third-largest producer of helium. Or it could force production cuts that would roll through everything from electronics to cars.

但长期短缺可能会迫使该公司和其他芯片制造商接受来自其他地区的供应，比如全球第三大氦气生产国俄罗斯。或者，这可能会迫使企业减产，其影响将波及从电子产品到汽车的所有行业。

芯片制造商正面临氦气突然短缺的困境。目前，高端芯片最大供应商台积电表示，其库存充足，足以避免减产。

One bottleneck begets another; that’s the pattern. Without enough petrochemicals to make plastic packaging, fewer Korean beauty products are heading to stores. A lack of fertilizer is threatening rice crops in Vietnam. Cattle farmers in steak-crazy Australia are even warning of a red meat shortage because of idled slaughterhouses and truckers.

一个瓶颈引发另一个瓶颈，这就是当前的模式。没有足够的石化产品生产塑料包装，运往商店的韩国美妆产品就会减少。化肥短缺正威胁着越南的水稻作物。在痴迷牛排的澳大利亚，养牛户警告称，由于屠宰场停工和卡车司机短缺，红肉将出现供应不足。

Human Suffering

民生的苦难

Before the war, the United Nations projected that most of the next decade’s growth in middle-class consumers would be found in Asia.

战争爆发前，联合国曾预测，未来十年全球中产阶级消费者的增长大部分将出现在亚洲。

Last week, a new U.N. report estimated that 8.8 million people in Asia and the Pacific are at risk of falling into poverty because of the war, depending on how long hostilities last. Most of those, about five million, would be in Iran. But in a region where most employment is informal, without a robust safety net, the conflict’s effects are starting to compound.

上周，联合国一份新报告估计，根据战事持续时间的不同，亚太地区将有880万人面临陷入贫困的风险。其中约500万人在伊朗。但在一个大多数就业为非正规就业、缺乏健全社会保障网的地区，冲突的影响正开始叠加。

In an interview, Kanni Wignaraja, a U.N. assistant secretary‑general and U.N.D.P. regional director for Asia and the Pacific, said “the scale and the speed of transmission to Asia and the Pacific has been much bigger than initially anticipated.”

联合国助理秘书长兼开发计划署亚太区域主任坎尼·维格纳拉贾在接受采访时表示：“这场危机向亚太地区传导的规模和速度远超最初的预期。”

Poverty’s spread, she noted, threatens to be fused with other problems: vital medicines and vaccines failing to reach vulnerable populations; schools and universities unable to gather students; and increased pollution from the return to coal burning for electricity.

她指出，贫困的蔓延可能会与其他问题交织在一起：救命药品和疫苗无法送达弱势群体；学校和大学无法正常开学；以及为发电重新使用煤炭，导致污染加剧。

In India, where entire industrial clusters have been shut down for weeks by fuel shortages, workers are reversing urbanization, melting back to rural villages to thresh wheat. The cost of acetaminophen and some antibiotics in India has already gone up.

在印度，由于燃料短缺，整个工业集群已停工数周，工人们正逆城市化趋势而行，返回农村村庄收割小麦。印度的对乙酰氨基酚和部分抗生素价格已经上涨。

In Manila, Wednesday is considered a special day of Catholic devotion that usually attracts a throng of devotees and shoppers in the Philippine capital’s Baclaran district. After attending church, many scout for bargains at the nearby flea market.

在马尼拉，周三是天主教的重要祈祷日，通常会吸引大批信徒和购物者前往菲律宾首都的巴克拉兰区。做完礼拜后，许多人会在附近的跳蚤市场淘便宜货。

But the district, far quieter since the war started, seemed closer to paralysis this week. Jeepney or minibus drivers gathered in groups, away from the wheel, for a three-day work strike to protest runaway gas and diesel prices.

但自战争爆发以来，这个地区变得异常安静，本周更是近乎瘫痪。小公共汽车司机们聚集在一起，离开驾驶座，举行为期三天的罢工，抗议飙升的汽油和柴油价格。

随着4月份油价上涨，马尼拉一家加油站用贴纸修改了价格牌。

Yunos Lilingco, 42, a widow and mother of three, said she initially believed the U.S.-Iran war wouldn’t affect her. She sells clothes she gets from a factory. The war seemed a world away.

42岁的尤诺斯·利林科是一位寡妇，育有三个孩子。她说，她最初认为美伊战争不会影响到自己。她靠卖从工厂进货的衣服为生。战争似乎远在天边。

But when gas prices went up, her costs rose, too. Her customer base has nearly disappeared. She used to make nearly $40 a day, now she makes less than $10.

但当汽油价格上涨后，她的成本也随之上升。她的客户群几乎消失殆尽。她过去每天能赚近40美元，现在还不到10美元。

“People don’t move around too much nowadays, because of high gas prices,” she said. “So there are fewer people to sell my clothes to.”

“现在人们不怎么出门了，因为油价太高，”她说。“所以买我衣服的人也少了。”

The U.N.’s report predicted that the war would cost Asia and the Pacific between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to between 0.3 and 0.8 percent of regional gross domestic product.

联合国的报告预测，这场战争将给亚太地区造成970亿至2990亿美元的损失，相当于该地区国内生产总值的0.3%至0.8%。

At street level, suffering often starts with higher food prices and reduced employment.

在普通民众层面，苦难往往始于食品价格上涨和就业减少。

“You’re losing income, and at the same time you’re paying more,” said Ms. Wignaraja, the U.N. official.

“你失去了收入，同时却要支付更多的费用，”联合国官员维格纳拉贾说。

3月，在菲律宾邦格特省阿托克镇，一名农民俯瞰着他决定不收割的卷心菜田，他表示，与其因运输燃料成本上涨亏本出售，他宁愿让这些菜烂掉。

In the northern region of the Philippines, which supplies most of the country’s highland vegetables, like cabbage and broccoli, scarcity is killing abundance. Crops ready to be harvested last week are rotting in fertile fields, with farmers unable to afford the costs of transporting them to market.

菲律宾北部地区是该国大部分卷心菜、西兰花等高原蔬菜的供应地，在那里，物资短缺正在扼杀丰收。上周本该收获的作物正在肥沃的田地里腐烂，因为农民负担不起将它们运往市场的运输成本。

The war’s damage, so quick and deep across the Asia-Pacific, will not be easy to contain. Even if the United States and Iran reach a lasting peace, the forces of scarcity and inflation have gained momentum and are on the move.

这场战争对亚太地区造成的破坏如此迅速且深入，将难以遏制。即便美国和伊朗达成持久和平，稀缺和通胀的力量也已获得势头，正在蔓延开来。

“You’ve seen tsunamis — they go across the ocean very, very fast,” said Mr. Cornell from the Atlantic Council. “I find it breathtaking to see the degree to which American policymakers think that they are insulated.”

“你见过海啸吧——它们会以极快的速度席卷整个海洋，”大西洋理事会的康奈尔说。“看到美国的政策制定者们认为自己能够置身事外，我感到非常震惊。”

Iranian warships sunk by U.S. and Israeli attacks litter naval harbors along the Persian Gulf coast, but what is sometimes called a “mosquito fleet” lurks in the shadows.

被美以联合袭击击沉的伊朗军舰残骸散落在波斯湾沿岸的各个海军港口，但一支被称为"蚊子舰队"的力量正潜伏在暗处。

It is a flotilla of small, fast, agile boats designed to harass shipping, and it forms the heart of the naval forces deployed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a force separate from Iran’s regular navy.

这是一支由小型、高速、机动性强的船只组成的舰队，专为袭扰航运设计，是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队部署的海军力量的核心战力，革命卫队独立于伊朗常规海军。

These boats, and especially the missiles and drones that the Guards navy can launch from them, or from camouflaged sites onshore, have been the main threat stymying shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

这些快艇一直是阻碍霍尔木兹海峡航运通行的主要威胁，尤其是革命卫队海军能从艇上或岸上伪装阵地发射导弹和无人机。

Iran had vowed to keep the strait closed until there was a cease-fire in Lebanon. On Friday, senior Iranian officials made conflicting statements about whether that truce had prompted Iran to open the strait. On Saturday, Iran’s military said the waterway had “returned to its previous state” and was “under strict management and control of the armed forces.”

伊朗此前曾誓言，除非黎巴嫩实现停火，否则将持续封锁海峡。周五，伊朗高级官员就停火是否促使该国重新开放海峡发表了相互矛盾的声明。周六，伊朗军方表示，这条水道已“恢复至此前状态”，并“处于武装部队的严格管理和控制之下”。

Welcoming the initial Iranian announcement of the opening, President Trump pronounced the Hormuz situation “over,” while stressing on social media that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until a peace deal was reached.

特朗普总统对伊朗最初宣布开放海峡的消息表示欢迎，宣称霍尔木兹局势"已经结束"，同时在社交媒体上强调，在达成和平协议之前，美国对伊朗港口的封锁将继续生效。

The task of keeping the strait closed would fall to the Guards navy.

封锁海峡的任务由革命卫队海军承担。

“The I.R.G.C. navy works more like a guerrilla force at sea,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on the Guards and a political science professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

“伊朗革命卫队海军的运作方式更像是一支海上游击队，”研究革命卫队问题的专家、田纳西大学查塔努加分校政治学教授赛义德·戈尔卡尔说。

“It is focused on asymmetrical warfare, especially in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. “So instead of relying on big warships and classic naval battles, it depends on hit-and-run attacks.”

“它专注不对称作战，尤其是在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡地区，”他还说。“因此它不依赖大型战舰和传统海战，而是依靠打了就跑的袭扰战术。”

During the war, at least 20 vessels were attacked, according to the International Maritime Agency, a United Nations agency. The Guards navy rarely claimed the attacks, which analysts said were most likely carried out by drones fired from mobile launchers on land, which generate a faint footprint, difficult to trace.

据联合国下属机构国际海事局统计，战争期间至少有20艘船只遭到袭击。革命卫队海军极少宣称对这些袭击负责，分析人士称，这些袭击极有可能是由陆地机动发射架发射的无人机实施的，这种方式留下的痕迹极微，难以追踪。

On April 8, after a two-week cease-fire in the war was announced, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said more than 90 percent of the regular navy’s fleet, including its main warships, sat at the bottom of the ocean.

4月8日，在美伊为期两周的停火协议宣布后，美军参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军表示，包括其主力战舰，伊朗常规海军90%以上的舰队都已沉入海底。

An estimated half of the Guards navy’s fast attack boats were also sunk, General Caine said, but did not specify how many. Estimates of the overall number range from hundreds to thousands — it is difficult to count them.

凯恩将军称，革命卫队海军约一半的快速攻击艇也被击沉，但未透露具体数量。外界对其快艇总数的估计从数百艘到数千艘不等——这一数量很难精确统计。

The boats are often too small to appear on satellite images, and they are moored along piers within deep caves excavated along the rocky coastline, ready to be deployed in minutes, analysts said. Their arsenal poses a major threat to commercial ships in the gulf and the strait.

分析人士指出，这些快艇通常体积太小，无法在卫星图像上显示，它们停泊在沿岩石海岸线开凿的深邃洞穴内的码头边，随时可以在数分钟内部署出击。其武器库对海湾和海峡内的商船构成了重大威胁。

“It remains a disruptive force,” said Adm. Gary Roughead, a retired chief of U.S. Naval Operations. “You never quite knew what they were up to and what their intentions were.”

“它仍然是一支极具破坏性的力量，”美国前海军作战部长加里·拉夫黑德上将说。“你永远无法确切知道他们在做什么、有什么意图。”

Stepping in where the regular navy couldn’t

填补常规海军的战力空白

The Guards land forces were formed soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution because its leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, did not trust the regular army to protect the new government.

革命卫队陆军成立于1979年伊斯兰革命后不久，因为革命领袖阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼不信任常规军队能够保护新生政权。

The Guards navy was added around 1986. The regular navy had proved reluctant during the Iran-Iraq war to attack oil tankers from Iraq’s financial backers, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, said Farzin Nadimi, a specialist on the Guards navy at the Washington Institute, a policy think tank in the U.S. capital.

革命卫队海军则于1986年前后成立。美国首都华盛顿的政策智库华盛顿研究所的革命卫队海军专家法尔津·纳迪米表示，在两伊战争期间，常规海军一度不愿袭击伊拉克的金主科威特和沙特阿拉伯的油轮。

Eventually those attacks ratcheted up, and the United States then deployed warships to escort tankers. One of them, the U.S.S. Samuel B. Roberts, almost sank after hitting an Iranian mine. In a subsequent battle, the U.S. Navy scuppered two Iranian frigates and a number of other naval vessels.

最终这些袭击愈演愈烈，美国随后部署战舰为油轮护航。其中塞缪尔·B·罗伯茨号护卫舰在触碰伊朗水雷后险些沉没。在随后的战斗中，美国海军击沉了两艘伊朗护卫舰和多艘其他军舰。

Three years later, the Iranians watched as the United States laid waste to the Iraqi military during the first Persian Gulf war.

三年后，伊朗人目睹了美国在第一次海湾战争中摧毁伊拉克军队的全过程。

That combination of events convinced Iran that it could never prevail in a direct confrontation with the U.S. military, so it developed a stealth force to harass ships in the gulf, Mr. Nadimi said.

纳迪米说，这一系列事件让伊朗确信，它永远无法在与美军的直接对抗中获胜，因此发展出了一支隐形力量来袭扰海湾地区的船只。

The Guards navy has an estimated 50,000 men, he said, and divides its forces into five sectors along the gulf, including some presence on many of the 38 gulf islands that Iran controls.

他表示，革命卫队海军约有5万名官兵，沿海湾划分为五个防区，在伊朗控制的38个海湾岛屿中的许多岛屿上设有驻军。

Overall, it has constructed at least 10 well-hidden, fortified bases for attack boats. One, Farur, is the center of operations for the naval special forces, whose equipment, even their sunglasses, are modeled on their U.S. counterparts.

总体而言，伊朗已为攻击艇建造了至少10个隐蔽性极强的加固基地。其中法鲁尔基地是海军特种部队的作战中心，其装备——甚至包括太阳镜——都模仿美军同行的样式。

“The I.R.G.C. navy has always believed that it is at the forefront of the confrontation with the Great Satan, and has been in constant friction with the Americans in the gulf,” Mr. Nadimi said.

“革命卫队海军一直认为自己站在对抗‘大撒旦’的最前线，并且在海湾地区与美国人不断发生摩擦，”纳迪米说。

An arsenal of small, nimble boats

小巧灵活的快艇武器库

Iran started by using recreational boats mounted with rocket-propelled grenades or machine guns, naval analysts said. Over the years, it built a range of specially designed small boats, as well as miniature submarines and marine drones. Iran claims that some of those boats can reach speeds of more than 100 knots, or 115 miles per hour, experts said.

海军分析人士称，伊朗最初使用的是加装火箭推进榴弹或机枪的休闲型船只。多年来，它又建造了一系列专门设计的小型船只，以及微型潜艇和海上无人机。专家表示，伊朗声称其中一些快艇的时速可达100节以上，约合185公里/小时。

The Guards navy also recently developed larger, more sophisticated warships, many of which were targeted in the war, said Alex Pape, the chief maritime expert at Janes, a defense analysis firm. Those damaged included its largest drone carrier, the Shahid Bagheri, a converted container ship that could also launch anti-ship missiles.

防务分析公司简氏集团的首席海事专家亚历克斯·佩普说，革命卫队海军近期还研发了更大、更先进的战舰，其中许多在本轮战争中成为打击目标。受损的包括其最大的无人机母舰沙希德·巴格里号，该舰由集装箱船改装而成，还具备发射反舰导弹的能力。

2024年，伊朗一艘名为沙希德·巴格里号的无人机母舰停泊在伊朗阿巴斯港附近的卫星图像。

To counter a potential swarm of smaller boats, U.S. warships have high-caliber cannons and other weaponry, experts said. Commercial vessels, though, have no way to fend off such attacks.

专家表示，为了应对潜在的小型快艇群攻，美国战舰配备了大口径火炮和其他武器装备。然而，商船却没有任何抵御此类袭击的能力。

But the Iranians have never tested swarm attacks of small boats in combat, said Nicholas Carl, an Iran expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington.

但华盛顿智库美国企业研究所的伊朗问题专家尼古拉斯·卡尔表示，伊朗从未在实战中测试过小型快艇的群攻战术。

Since Mr. Trump on Monday imposed a naval blockade on ships traveling from Iranian ports, even the most powerful U.S. warships are avoiding spending any time patrolling in the vicinity of the narrow Strait of Hormuz. There is little room to maneuver and almost no warning time to ward off a drone or a missile fired from nearby, experts said.

自特朗普周一宣布对驶离伊朗港口的船只实施海上封锁以来，即便是最强大的美国战舰也避免在狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡附近海域巡逻。专家指出，海峡内机动空间极小，对于从附近发射的无人机或导弹，几乎没有预警时间。

The U.S. warships enforcing the blockade are likely to remain outside the strait, in the Gulf of Oman or even farther, in the Arabian Sea, where they can monitor shipping traffic but are far more difficult for the Guards to attack, experts said. On Wednesday, Iran warned that it could expand operations into the Red Sea, another key shipping route in the region, through its proxy force in Yemen.

专家称，执行封锁任务的美国战舰很可能会留在海峡外的阿曼湾，甚至更远的阿拉伯海，在那里它们可以监控航运交通，同时大幅降低被革命卫队袭击的风险。周三，伊朗警告称，可能通过其在也门的代理人武装将行动范围扩大到该地区另一条重要航运通道红海。

A long history of confrontation

漫长的对抗史

The Guards navy has long played games of cat-and-mouse with the U.S. military inside the gulf. Admiral Roughead remembers that in the 1990s and 2000s, the small attack craft would approach American warships at high speeds and then veer off when they were half a mile away.

革命卫队海军长期以来一直在海湾地区与美军玩猫鼠游戏。拉夫黑德回忆说，在上世纪90年代和21世纪初，这些小型攻击艇会高速逼近美国战舰，然后在距离约800米处突然转向离开。

Drone warfare has amplified the danger level, he said. Drones are cheap and sometimes hard to detect, but they can inflict significant damage on a warship costing billions of dollars.

他说，无人机战进一步放大了危险程度。无人机价格低廉，有时难以被发现，但却能对造价数十亿美元的战舰造成重大损害。

Occasionally the Guards navy has fought directly with American or other forces. In early 2016, it captured two small U.S. naval boats. The 10 sailors, filmed on their knees, were later released unharmed. The episode caused an uproar in the United States.

革命卫队海军偶尔也会与美国或其他国家军队直接交火。2016年初，它扣押了两艘美国小型海军船只。10名水兵被拍到跪地的画面，他们后来全部获释且未受伤。这一事件在美国国内引发轩然大波。

2021年，一艘伊朗革命卫队海军的近岸快速攻击艇（一种配备机枪的快艇）接近正在穿越霍尔木兹海峡的美国海军舰艇。图像由美国海军提供。

Brig. Gen. Mohammad Nazeri, a founder of the Guards naval special forces, who led that attack, achieved cultlike status in Iran. He inspired a reality show on state television, “The Commander,” which ran for five seasons.

领导那次行动的革命卫队海军特种部队创始人穆罕默德·纳泽里准将在伊朗获得了偶像般的地位。他的事迹启发国家电视台制作了名为《指挥官》的真人秀节目，共播出了五季。

Each season, about 30 contestants competed for the chance to become a naval commando. They demonstrated their survival skills or feats of daring like jumping off cliffs into the gulf. After each round, viewers voted for their favorite “hero.”

每季约有30名参赛者争夺成为海军突击队员的机会。他们展示生存技能，或是从悬崖跳入海湾等惊险壮举。每轮比赛结束后，观众都会投票选出他们最喜爱的“英雄”。

Last year, Gen Z rose up across the globe in protest. Deploying viral memes — down with “nepo kids,” salute the straw hat-wearing Jolly Roger pirate flag — teens and 20-somethings in Indonesia, Morocco, Peru, Nepal and beyond rallied against what they saw as a corrupt, out-of-touch old guard.

去年，Z世代在全球范围内崛起并发起抗议。运用病毒式米姆——“打倒‘关系户子女’”、挥舞戴着草帽的海盗旗，印尼、摩洛哥、秘鲁、尼泊尔及其他地区的青少年和二十多岁的年轻人集结起来，反对他们眼中腐败、脱离群众的老派势力。

Young people often prompt change (think 1968). But as the legacy of the Arab Spring 15 years ago shows, they don’t always get what they want.

年轻人常常推动变革（想想1968年）。但正如15年前阿拉伯之春的遗产所显示的那样，他们并不总是能得到自己想要的结果。

Here is where Gen Z stands today:

以下是Z世代目前的处境：

Nepal

尼泊尔

• What happened? In September, young Nepalis unseated a government after only two days of protests against corruption, political impunity and a government-imposed social media ban.

·发生了什么？去年9月，尼泊尔年轻人在短短两天抗议后推翻了政府，抗议内容包括腐败、政治免责以及政府实施的社交媒体禁令。

• What changed? Six months later, a youth-backed party won elections by a landslide, ushering in a 35-year-old rapper as prime minister. (Although he is a millennial, he is wildly popular with younger people.) It is by far Gen Z’s biggest win to date.

·改变了什么？六个月后，一个得到青年支持的政党以压倒性优势赢得选举，迎来一位35岁的说唱歌手担任总理。（虽然他是千禧一代，但在年轻人中极受欢迎。）这是迄今为止Z世代最大的胜利。

Madagascar

马达加斯加

• What happened? Weeks after Nepal’s political upheaval, a colonel in Madagascar backed Gen Z protesters there, prompting the president to flee the country.

·发生了什么？尼泊尔政局剧变几周后，马达加斯加的一位上校支持当地的Z世代抗议者，导致总统逃离该国。

• What changed? Last month, the colonel, now the new president, dismissed the interim government and named a new prime minister. He vowed to combat corruption by giving lie-detector tests to potential ministers. Elections aren’t expected until next year.

·改变了什么？上个月，这位上校如今已成为新总统，他解散了临时政府并任命了新的总理。他发誓要通过对部长候选人进行测谎来打击腐败。选举预计要到明年才会举行。

Peru

秘鲁

• What happened? Young Peruvians took to the streets in September to protest an unpopular president and Congress, amid a worsening crime wave. The president was eventually ousted, and her interim successor was then impeached in February.

·发生了什么？去年9月，秘鲁年轻人在街头抗议不受欢迎的总统和国会，当时犯罪浪潮正在恶化。总统最终被赶下台，她的临时继任者随后在2月被弹劾。

• What changed? In a country that in a decade has cycled through six leaders before their terms were up, it was hard to deem this solely Gen Z power, rather than chronic political instability. An 83-year-old is serving as interim leader until July, amid a protracted vote count for the first round of elections this month. A runoff is expected in June.

·改变了什么？在一个过去十年里已经更换了六位任期未满领导人的国家，很难将此完全归功于Z世代的力量，这更像是长期的政治不稳定。目前一位83岁的老人担任临时领导人，直至7月。本月第一轮选举的计票工作旷日持久。预计6月将举行决选。

Indonesia and the Philippines

印尼和菲律宾

• What happened? In August, Indonesian youth began mobilizing nationwide to protest perks for lawmakers at a time of rising costs and unemployment. The president rolled back some of the parliamentary privileges, but not before chaos had erupted in the streets. The following month, youth-led demonstrations against corruption broke out in the Philippines.

·发生了什么？去年8月，印尼青年在全国范围内动员起来，抗议在生活成本和失业率上升之际议员们却享有特权。总统撤回了部分议会特权，但是在街头混乱爆发后才这样做的。次月，菲律宾爆发了由青年领导的反对腐败的示威活动。

• What changed? Both countries once overthrew dictators through people power revolutions, but the entrenched elites remain in charge amid rising social inequality. The protests did nothing to change that.

·改变了什么？这两个国家都曾通过人民力量革命推翻独裁者，但根深蒂固的精英阶层仍在掌权，社会不平等日益加剧。抗议未能改变这一现状。

Morocco

摩洛哥

• What happened? Youth unemployment. Crumbling schools and hospitals. Lavish spending on megaprojects like soccer stadiums. The woes prompting Moroccan Gen Z to protest last fall were no different from those lived by millions of youth worldwide.

·发生了什么？青年失业率居高不下。学校和医院破败不堪。却在大肆投资足球场等大型项目。去年秋天促使摩洛哥Z世代走上街头抗议的问题，与全世界数百万年轻人所面临的问题并无不同。

• What changed? Like in Kenya and Togo, countries with youth-heavy populations, the protest movement in Morocco led to a deadly police crackdown and little systemic change.

·改变了什么？与肯尼亚和多哥等青年人口占比高的国家一样，摩洛哥的抗议运动遭到了警察的致命镇压，几乎没有什么系统性变革。

Bangladesh

孟加拉国

• What happened? Early starters, Gen Z scored its first revolution in 2024 when youthful demonstrators in Bangladesh kicked out the authoritarian scion of a political dynasty after a bloody crackdown.

·发生了什么？作为先行者，孟加拉Z世代在2024年取得了第一次革命：年轻示威者在经历血腥镇压后，将一位政治王朝继承人的威权统治者赶下了台。

• What changed? A Nobel Peace laureate was named interim leader. But in elections in February, voters brought back to power another party led by the scion of another political dynasty. It promised big change, only to drag its feet on a reform charter that voters had overwhelmingly backed in a referendum.

·改变了什么？一位诺贝尔和平奖得主被任命为临时领导人。但在2月的选举中，选民又将另一个由另一位政治王朝继承人领导的政党重新推上权力宝座。该政党曾承诺进行重大变革，却在选民通过一边倒的公投支持的宪章改革上拖延不决。

For months after his election last year, Pope Leo XIV often seemed quiet on sensitive issues, speaking carefully to soothe tensions both within the Roman Catholic world and with global leaders beyond it.

在去年当选后的几个月里，良十四世教宗在敏感问题上往往保持沉默，发言谨慎，试图缓和罗马天主教内部以及与世界各国领导人之间的紧张关系。

This was the week he found his voice.

而过去这一周，他终于发出了自己的声音。

On Monday, Leo unexpectedly addressed the Trump administration head-on after weeks of avoiding direct confrontation. Since early March, the pope had been criticizing the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran without mentioning President Trump by name.

上周一，数周来一直避免直接对抗的良十四世出人意料地正面抨击了特朗普政府。自3月初以来，教宗一直批评美国与以色列在伊朗的战争，但始终没有点名特朗普总统。

On Wednesday, in Cameroon, Leo — standing next to Paul Biya, Cameroon’s authoritarian president and the world’s oldest and longest-serving leader — called on authorities to abandon an “idolatrous thirst for profit.”

周三，在喀麦隆，良十四世站在该国威权总统、保有世界最年长和在位最久领导人纪录的保罗·比亚身边，呼吁当局放弃“对利润的偶像崇拜般的渴求”。

On Thursday, the pope made perhaps his most full-throated exhortation yet. He expressed “woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth.” Many news outlets interpreted that as an allusion to the Trump administration’s efforts to use Christianity to justify the Iran war, though the pope said on Saturday that the remarks were not aimed at the president.

周四，教宗发表了或许是他迄今为止最强烈、最直率的劝诫。他表示：“那些为了自己的军事、经济和政治利益而操纵宗教乃至上帝之名，将神圣之物拖入黑暗与污秽之中的人，你们有祸了。”许多新闻媒体将此解读为暗指特朗普政府试图利用基督教为伊朗战争辩护，尽管教宗周六表示，这些言论并非针对特朗普总统。

Nevertheless, it has been a watershed week for a pope who started his papacy last May facing constant comparisons with his predecessor Francis, the freewheeling pontiff whose revolutionary style and urge to shake up sacred rituals divided followers and earned him derision from conservative Catholics, particularly in the United States.

但对于这位去年5月开始执掌教廷的教宗来说，这一周仍具有划时代意义。他从上任之初就不断被拿来与前任方济各比较。那位随性自由的教宗以革命性的风格和打破神圣礼仪的冲动分裂了信徒，并在保守派天主教徒中（尤其在美国）招致嘲讽。

Leo, by contrast, has a mild-mannered temperament. Until recently, he had tended to deliver sober speeches rooted in scripture and careful nuance to avoid confrontational language. He wore traditional vestments and spoke Latin during Mass, both moves that diverged from Francis and pleased conservatives. From the very beginning of his papacy, he spoke about unity within the Catholic church, appearing to want to calm the church and draw conservatives back to the papal fold. And though he stood up for migrants and criticized U.S. attacks on Venezuela, he took a cautious tone while doing so, and tended to stick to scripted remarks.

相比之下，良十四世性格温和。直到最近，他倾向于发表基于圣经、措辞谨慎且微妙的严肃演讲，避免使用对抗性语言。他在弥撒中穿着传统祭服并讲拉丁语，这两点都与方济各不同，令保守派深感欣慰。登位之初，他就强调天主教会的团结，似乎希望平息教会内的纷争，将保守派重新团结在教宗周围。虽然他为移民发声并批评美国对委内瑞拉的攻击，但在这样做时语气谨慎，且往往坚持事先准备好的讲稿。

Some followers even hinted that he was, well, a bit boring.

一些信徒甚至暗示，他……嗯，有点无聊。

But that perception may be what allowed the pope to strike a more powerful tone now.

但这种印象或许正是让他现在能够发出更强有力声音的原因。

Early on, Leo was “taking care not to be perceived as simply Francis 2.0, or as somebody who would neatly be pigeonholed” into partisan political categories, said Nicholas Hayes-Mota, an expert on theological ethics at Santa Clara University, a Catholic institution in California.

加州天主教大学圣克拉拉大学神学伦理专家尼古拉斯·海耶斯-莫塔表示，良十四世在初期“特别注意不让自己被简单视为‘方济各2.0’，也不愿被轻易归入任何党派政治类别”。

“I think that was really important to him and very prudent, frankly,” Mr. Hayes-Mota said. “And so I think part of what’s allowing him to be more outspoken now is that he took his time.”

“我认为这对他来说非常重要，而且坦率地说，非常明智，”海耶斯-莫塔说，“所以我认为，他现在能够更加直言不讳，部分原因正是因为他之前花了时间谨慎行事。”

特朗普总统上周四在白宫外。分析人士称，他的对立态度促使教宗改变了语气。

The pope’s comments came after a tumultuous period in which the Vatican found itself playing defense through several swirling news cycles.

教宗的这些言论出现在梵蒂冈在一系列混乱新闻周期中不断防守的动荡时期之后。

After Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called on the American people to pray for victory in Iran “in the name of Jesus Christ,” the pope said in a Sunday homily that Jesus “does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.” Leo later told Americans to call their representatives in Congress to protest the war.

在国防部长皮特·海格塞斯呼吁美国民众“奉耶稣基督之名”为伊朗战争胜利祈祷后，教宗在周日讲道中表示，耶稣“不会听从那些发动战争之人的祈祷，反而会拒绝它们”。良十四世随后呼吁美国民众致电国会代表，抗议这场战争。

An unsubstantiated report then emerged that Pentagon officials had conveyed a menacing message to a Vatican official. The Vatican and the U.S. government acknowledged that a meeting had occurred in January but denied any hostility.

随后出现了一则未经证实的报道，称五角大楼官员向梵蒂冈官员传达了威胁性信息。梵蒂冈和美国政府均承认1月曾举行过一次会晤，但否认存在任何敌意。

Then last Sunday, three influential American cardinals appeared on “60 Minutes” and criticized various Trump administration policies, with one saying that the Iran conflict was “not a just war.”

接着在上上周日，三位有影响力的美国枢机主教现身《60分钟》节目，批评特朗普政府的多项政策，其中一人称伊朗冲突“不是一场正义的战争”。

Hours later, Mr. Trump delivered a long screed against Leo on Truth Social, the president’s social media platform, calling him “terrible for foreign policy” and “catering to the Radical Left.”

数小时后，特朗普在自己的社交媒体平台Truth Social上发表长篇抨击良十四世的言论，称他“在外交政策上糟糕透顶”，并“迎合激进左派”。

Until then, Leo had been careful not to confront Mr. Trump directly.

在那之前，良十四世一直小心避免直接对抗特朗普。

But on Monday, Leo seemed to have had enough of prudence.

但到了上周一，良十四世似乎已经受够了谨慎克制。

Speaking with unusual spontaneity to journalists while flying to Africa on Monday, he said that he had “no fear” of the Trump administration and that he would “continue to speak out loudly against war.”

在飞往非洲的飞机上，他以罕见的直率对记者说，他对特朗普政府“毫无畏惧”，并将“继续大声疾呼反对战争”。

When I asked him on the plane about Mr. Trump’s remarks on Truth Social, he said the site’s name was “ironic.”

当我在飞机上问他如何看待特朗普在Truth Social上的言论时，他说这个网站的名称“具有讽刺意味”。

The reason for the pope’s shift is still unclear, but some analysts say the pope felt he had no choice but to adopt a more direct approach.

教宗转变态度的原因尚不清楚，但一些分析人士认为，教宗觉得自己别无选择，只能采取更直接的方式。

Christopher White, a senior fellow at the Georgetown Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life, said the pope most likely decided he was “going to be the adult in the room.”

乔治城大学天主教社会思想与公共生活倡议高级研究员克里斯托弗·怀特表示，教宗很可能决定自己要“成为房间里的成年人”。

“Leo wasn’t looking for a fight,” Mr. White added. “One of the reasons he found his voice is out of necessity.”

“良十四世并不是在寻找一场争斗，”怀特补充道，“他找到自己声音的原因之一正是出于必要。”

Some wondered if the pope, by ratcheting up his rhetoric, would start to alienate the conservatives who have so far supported him.

一些人担心，教宗提高言辞力度可能会开始疏远迄今为止支持他的保守派。

But the antagonism of the Trump administration may give Leo more leeway, said Mr. Hayes-Mota, the Santa Clara academic.

但圣克拉拉大学的海耶斯-莫塔表示，特朗普政府的敌对态度反而可能给良十四世带来更多回旋空间。

“I think the fact that the administration has reacted in the way it has, that Trump went directly on the attack, has actually helped rather than hindered the pope’s cause,” Mr. Hayes-Mota said. “It makes it look as if the president is the one trying to drag the pope into the mud.” The pope, Mr. Hayes-Mota added, “is really representing something else, a kind of higher moral authority.”

“我认为，政府以这种方式做出反应，尤其是特朗普直接发动攻击的事实，其实帮助而非阻碍了教宗的事业，”海耶斯-莫塔说，“这让外界看起来像是总统在试图把教宗拖进泥潭。”他补充道，教宗“真正代表的是另一种东西，一种更高的道德权威”。

The pope has not limited his pointed language to the United States.

教宗的尖锐言论并不仅限于美国。

On Monday in Algeria, which is led by an authoritarian government, Leo told those “who hold positions of authority” that they should “promote a vibrant, dynamic and free civil society.”

周一在由威权政府领导的阿尔及利亚，良十四世告诉那些“身居高位者”，他们应当“促进一个充满活力、富有生机且自由的公民社会”。

Then in an address to Mr. Biya in the Cameroonian capital on Wednesday, the pope said, quoting St. Augustine, that “those who rule serve those whom they seem to command.”

随后在周三于喀麦隆首都对比亚总统的致辞中，教宗引用圣奥古斯丁的话说：“治人者实为人所用。”

上周三，良十四世和喀麦隆威权领导人保罗·比亚。

A day later, the pope visited northwest Cameroon, a region wracked by conflict between English-speaking separatists and the Francophone government’s military over the past decade. Praising local peacemakers, he lamented how the world had been “ravaged by a handful of tyrants.”

一天后，教宗访问了喀麦隆西北部地区。那里过去十年一直饱受讲英语的分离主义者与法语区政府军队之间冲突的蹂躏。他赞扬当地和平缔造者，同时痛惜世界如何“被少数暴君肆意蹂躏”。

A local bishop, Aloysius Abangalo Fondong, said he was not surprised by Leo’s words.

当地主教阿洛伊修斯·阿班加洛·丰东表示，他对良十四世的言论并不感到意外。

“He’s not a politician, he’s the pastor of the church, the vicar of Christ in the world,” Bishop Fondong said. “And as the Holy Father said, he’s not afraid to speak the truth.”

“他不是政治家，他是教会的牧者，是基督在世间的代理人，”丰东主教说，“正如圣父所说，他不害怕说出真相。”

Yet some Catholics fear the pope’s more robust talk will do little to propel change.

然而，一些天主教徒担心，教宗这种更强硬的言论可能难以推动实际改变。

“I fear that it may not have reached leaders who are genuinely open to its call,” said the Rev. Ludovic Lado, a Jesuit priest and academic from Cameroon.

“我担心这些话可能无法触动那些真正愿意回应其呼唤的领导人，”来自喀麦隆的耶稣会神父兼学者卢多维克·拉多说。

It didn’t have to carbo-load, get a good night’s rest or lace up running shoes.

它无需补充碳水、无需保证睡眠，也不用系紧跑鞋鞋带。

Instead, the toughest challenge for the bright-red humanoid robot named Lightning was avoiding a collision with the more than 300 other robots running in a half-marathon race on Sunday in Beijing.

对于这台名为“闪电”的鲜红色人形机器人来说，周日在北京参加半程马拉松比赛时最严峻的挑战是避开一同参赛的300多台机器人。

While the approximately 5-foot-5 Lightning crashed into a barricade and fell during its final stretch, it was able to pick itself back up with help from humans, swing its short forearms to rebalance, and stride across the finish line in 50 minutes, 26 seconds, according to the state-run China Daily.

据官方媒体《中国日报》报道，身高约1.65米的“闪电”在最后冲刺阶段撞上护栏摔倒，但在人类协助下重新站起，摆动短小的前臂恢复平衡，最终以50分26秒的成绩冲过终点线。

Lightning’s time was faster than the human world-record holder, Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda, who finished a half-marathon in 57 minutes, 20 seconds last month in Lisbon.

“闪电”的成绩快于人类半马世界纪录保持者、乌干达选手雅各布·基普利莫，他上月在里斯本以57分20秒完赛。

It was also faster than the 12,000 humans running the race in a separate, parallel lane. The men’s and women’s winners needed more than an hour to complete the outdoor course.

它的速度也超过了在另一条平行赛道参赛的1.2万名人类跑者。本次赛事男女组冠军完成这条户外赛道都耗时超过一小时。

Lightning was designed by the Chinese smartphone brand Honor, and is based on elite human athletes, with legs that are about three feet long.

“闪电”由中国智能手机品牌荣耀研发，设计参照顶尖人类运动员，腿部长度约0.9米。

Lighting’s joints are equipped with a liquid-cooling system adapted from consumer electronics, like smartphones, one of Honor’s engineers told state media.

荣耀一名工程师向官方媒体介绍，“闪电”的关节搭载了源自智能手机等消费电子产品的液冷系统。

In this year’s race, many of the robots, like Lightning, ran autonomously, though slightly more than half were operated by remote control.

在今年的比赛中，包括“闪电”在内的多台机器人均实现了自主奔跑，不过略超半数的机器人仍由遥控操作。

In the inaugural race last year, the top robot took nearly three times as long as Lightning, finishing in 2 hours, 40 minutes and 42 seconds, according to the state-run Global Times.

据官方媒体《环球时报》报道，在去年首届赛事中，成绩最好的机器人耗时2小时40分42秒，几乎是“闪电”用时的三倍。

While the robots were faster and more autonomous this year, Alan Fern, a robotics professor at Oregon State University, said the results said more about the state of robot hardware manufacturing in China than about any major scientific breakthrough.

尽管今年机器人速度更快、自主化程度更高，但俄勒冈州立大学机器人学教授艾伦·费恩表示，这一成果更多体现的是中国机器人硬件制造的水平，而非重大科学突破。

“What appears to have changed this year is that some of China’s many humanoid companies have invested the engineering effort needed to make these systems robust enough for a long-duration race,” he said on Sunday. “That is genuinely impressive.”

“今年明显的变化是，中国众多人形机器人企业中有一部分投入了必要的工程研发，让这些系统具备足够稳定性，能够完成长距离赛事，”他在周日表示。“这确实令人印象深刻。”

While it’s not evidence of a major advancement in artificial intelligence, he said it reflected the robust robotics manufacturing ecosystem in China. The United States has far fewer humanoid companies and very few operating at a large manufacturing scale, he said.

他指出，这虽不能证明人工智能实现重大飞跃，却反映出中国强大的机器人制造生态。他表示，美国的人形机器人企业数量远少于中国，实现大规模量产的更是寥寥无几。

At the same time, China has been pushing to make rapid advancements in robotics, propelled by government directives and significant investments.

而在政策引导与巨额投资推动下，中国正大力推动机器人技术快速发展。

There are already more robots at work in China than the rest of the world combined, according to the International Federation of Robotics, a nonprofit trade group for makers of industrial robots.

据工业机器人制造商的非营利行业组织国际机器人联合会统计，中国在役机器人数量已超过全球其他国家的总和。

Last year, Beijing hosted the world’s first Humanoid Robot Games, which featured running, kickboxing and soccer. The competition showcased many advancements and featured plenty of running, kicking and punching.

去年，北京举办了全球首届人形机器人运动会，设置跑步、跆拳道、足球等项目，集中展示了多项技术进步，机器人奔跑、踢腿、出拳等动作均有亮眼表现。

比赛结束后，媒体记者蜂拥而至，簇拥着这台获胜的机器人及其设计团队，这台机器人由中国智能手机制造商荣耀的团队研发。

But the robots also flailed around, crashed and fell over many times.

但比赛中机器人也频繁出现肢体乱晃、碰撞、摔倒等状况。

The city of Beijing called Sunday’s race “a major step forward for the robotics industry — accelerating the transition of humanoid robots from lab to large-scale, real-world application.”

北京市称，周日的这场比赛“标志着中国人形机器人产业从技术验证迈向高水平应用发展的重要一步”。

But Professor Fern said he was not sure about the practical application of a robot marathoner.

但费恩表示，他对机器人马拉松选手的实际应用价值持保留态度。

“A robot winning a half-marathon may attract attention and impress a few investors, but the harder question is how that capability translates into productivity and, ultimately, profitability,” he said. “That is much less obvious.”

“一台赢得半马比赛的机器人或许能吸引眼球、打动部分投资者，但更关键的问题是，这种能力如何转化为生产力，并最终实现盈利，”他说。“这一点远没有那么清晰。”

The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.

美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争时所持的理由是：如果伊朗有一天拥有核武器，它将获得能吓阻未来攻击的终极威慑力。

It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: its own geography.

结果证明，伊朗早已拥有一种威慑手段：它自身的地理位置。

Iran’s decision to flex its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows, has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizer and other staples. It has upended war planning in the United States and Israel, where officials have had to devise military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.

伊朗决定展现其对霍尔木兹海峡航运的控制权——这个战略咽喉要道承担着全球20%的石油供应，这给全球经济带来了痛苦，汽油、化肥和其他生活必需品的价格随之上涨。这还打乱了美国和以色列的战争计划，两国官员不得不制定军事方案，以夺取对该海峡的控制权。

The U.S.-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval vessels and missile production facilities, but it has done little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait.

美以战争严重破坏了伊朗的领导层结构、大型海军舰艇和导弹生产设施，但几乎没有削弱伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡的能力。

Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a blueprint for its hard-line theocratic government to keep its adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.

因此，伊朗有可能在冲突结束后，带着一份蓝图走出战争：无论其核计划受到何种限制，其强硬的神权政府都能借此让对手不敢轻举妄动。

“Everyone now knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian textbook,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence agency and now a fellow at the Atlantic Council. “You cannot beat geography.”

“现在所有人都知道，如果未来再发生冲突，封锁海峡将是伊朗教科书里的第一条，”以色列军事情报局前伊朗处处长、现大西洋理事会研究员丹尼·西特里诺维奇说，“你无法战胜地理。”

In several social media posts on Friday, President Trump said that the strait, which in one post he called the “Strait of Iran,” was “completely open” to shipping. Iran’s foreign minister made a similar declaration. On Saturday, however, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the waterway remained closed, suggesting a divide among Iranian military and civilians on the issue during negotiations to end the war.

周五，特朗普总统在几条社交媒体帖子中表示，该海峡（他在其中一条里称之为“伊朗海峡”）对航运“完全开放”。伊朗外长也做出了类似声明。然而，周六伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队却表示，该水道仍然处于关闭状态，这暗示在结束战争的谈判期间，伊朗军方和文官之间存在分歧。

Whereas just the prospect of sea mines is enough to scare off commercial shipping, Iran retains far more precise means of control: attack drones and short-range missiles. American military and intelligence officials estimate that, after weeks of war, Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.

仅仅布设水雷的可能性就足以吓退商业航运，而伊朗拥有更为精确的控制手段：攻击无人机和短程导弹。美国军方和情报官员估计，经过数周战争后，伊朗仍保有约40%的攻击无人机库存，以及60%以上的导弹发射装置——这足以在未来继续将霍尔木兹海峡的航运当作人质。

A central goal of the U.S.-led military campaign in Iran is now reopening the strait, which was open when the war began. It is a precarious position for the United States, and its adversaries have taken notice.

目前，美国主导的对伊朗军事行动的中心目标是重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——一条战争开始前原本畅通的水道。这让美国处于一个尴尬的位置，其对手们已经注意到了这一点。

“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out. But one thing is certain — Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It’s called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy chairman of the country’s security council, wrote on social media last week.

“目前尚不清楚华盛顿与德黑兰之间的停战协议将如何发展。但有一点是确定的——伊朗已经测试了它的核武器，它叫霍尔木兹海峡。其潜力无穷无尽，”俄罗斯前总统、俄联邦安全会议副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫上周在社交媒体上写道。

Iran’s control over the strait forced President Trump to announce a naval blockade of his own, and this week the U.S. Navy began forcing cargo ships into Iranian ports after they transited the waterway.

伊朗对海峡的控制迫使特朗普总统宣布实施自己的海军封锁。本周，美国海军开始在货船穿越该水道后，强行将其驱入伊朗港口。

Iran responded with anger, but also taunting. “The Strait of Hormuz isn’t social media. If someone blocks you, you can’t just block them back,” one Iranian diplomatic outpost, which has posted snarky messages throughout the war, wrote on X in response to Mr. Trump’s move. The dispute over the strait has been the focus of numerous A.I.-generated videos depicting American and Israeli officials as Lego characters.

伊朗对此表示愤怒，同时也带有嘲讽。“霍尔木兹海峡不是社交媒体。如果有人拉黑你，你不能只是反过来拉黑他们，”伊朗一个外交账号（该账号在整个战争期间不断发布讽刺信息）在X平台上回应特朗普的举动时写道。围绕海峡的争端已成为众多AI生成视频的焦点，这些视频用乐高角色描绘美国和以色列官员。

Still, the impact of the American blockade has been real. Seaborne trade accounts for roughly 90 percent of Iran’s economic output — approximately $340 million per day — and that flow in recent days has largely ground to a halt.

不过，美国封锁带来的影响是实实在在的。海运贸易约占伊朗经济产出的90%——每天约3.4亿美元——而最近几天，这一流动已基本停滞。

周五，伊朗政府支持者在德黑兰举行集会，人们手持新任最高领袖穆赫塔巴·哈梅内伊的海报。

Iran considers the blockade an act of war and has threatened to attack it. But so far it has not, nor has the United States tried during the current cease-fire to reduce Iran’s grip over the strait when the conflict finally ends.

伊朗认为这一封锁是战争行为，并威胁要对其发动攻击。但到目前为止，伊朗尚未采取行动，美国在当前停火期间也没有试图削弱伊朗对海峡的控制，以便在冲突最终结束时达成目标。

“It may be that both countries see there is a real window to have negotiations” and don’t want to escalate the conflict right now, Adm. Kevin Donegan, who once commanded the U.S. Navy’s fleet with responsibility for the Middle East and is now retired, said during a seminar hosted by the Middle East Institute this week.

“两国可能都看到了进行谈判的真正窗口，”曾在中东负责美国海军舰队指挥、现已退役的凯文·多尼根海军上将本周在中东研究所举办的研讨会上说，“目前都不想让冲突升级。”

Iran tried to block the Strait of Hormuz once before, mining it and the Persian Gulf during the conflict with Iraq during the 1980s. But mine warfare is dangerous, and decades later Iran has effectively harnessed missile and drone technology to threaten both commercial and military maritime traffic.

20世纪80年代两伊冲突期间，伊朗曾尝试过封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当时它在海峡和波斯湾布设了水雷。但水雷战风险很大，数十年后，伊朗已有效掌握了导弹和无人机技术，能够威胁商业和军事海上交通。

While the U.S. and Israeli war significantly damaged Iran’s weapons manufacturing capability, Iran has preserved enough of its missiles, launchers and one-way attack drones to put shipping in the strait at risk.

虽然美以战争严重破坏了伊朗的武器制造能力，但其保有的导弹、发射装置和单程攻击无人机的数量依然能够对海峡航运构成威胁。

U.S. intelligence and military estimates vary, but multiple officials said that Iran has about 40 percent of its prewar arsenal of drones. Those drones have proved to be a powerful deterrent. While they are easily shot down by American warships, commercial tankers have few defenses.

美国情报和军方估计存在差异，但多名官员表示，伊朗仍拥有战前约40%的无人机库存。这些无人机已被证明是一种强大的威慑手段。虽然它们很容易被美国军舰击落，但商业油轮几乎没有防御能力。

Iran also has ample supplies of missiles and missile launchers. At the time of the cease-fire, Iran had access to about half its missile launchers. In the days that immediately followed, it dug out about 100 systems that had been buried inside caves and bunkers, bringing its stockpile of launchers back up to about 60 percent of its prewar level.

伊朗还拥有充足的导弹和导弹发射装置储备。停火时伊朗可动用的导弹发射装置约为战前的一半。随后几天里，它从洞穴和掩体中挖出了约100套系统，使其发射装置库存回升至战前水平的约60%。

Iran is also digging out its supply of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from American attacks on its bunkers and depots. When that work is done, Iran could reclaim as much as 70 percent of its prewar arsenal, according to some American estimates.

伊朗还在挖掘其导弹库存，这些导弹同样被埋在美国袭击掩体和仓库产生的瓦砾之下。根据一些美国估计，挖掘工作完成后，伊朗可能重新掌握多达70%的战前导弹储备。

Officials note that the counts of Iran’s weapon stocks are not precise. Intelligence assessments offer a broad look at how much power Iran retains.

官员们指出，对伊朗武器库存的统计并不精确。情报评估只是对伊朗保留实力的一个大致判断。

But while estimates of Iran’s missile stockpiles differ, there is agreement among officials that Iran has enough weaponry to halt shipping in the future.

尽管对伊朗导弹库存的估计各不相同，但官员们一致认为，伊朗拥有的武器足以在未来阻止航运。

Iran’s government chose not to block the Strait of Hormuz last June, when Israel launched a military campaign that United States eventually joined to hit deeply buried nuclear sites.

去年6月，当以色列发动军事行动（美国后来加入，打击了深藏在地下的伊朗核设施）时，伊朗政府没有选择封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

Mr. Citrinowicz, the former Israeli official, said that decision probably reflected the cautious approach of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who may have been concerned that blocking the strait could have led other countries to join the military campaign against Iran.

前以色列官员西特里诺维奇表示，这一决定可能反映了伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的谨慎态度，他当时可能担心封锁海峡会促使其他国家加入针对伊朗的军事行动。

Ayatollah Khamenei was killed during the first day of the current war, a move that signaled to Iranian officials that American and Israeli goals for this conflict were far more expansive.

哈梅内伊在此次交战的第一天就被击毙，这一行动向伊朗官员表明，在这场冲突中，美国和以色列想达成的目标要比以前宏大得多。

Iran “saw the June war as an Israeli war for their own strategic objectives,” Mr. Citrinowicz said. “This is a regime change war.”

伊朗“认为去年6月的战争是以色列为自身战略目标而发动的战争”，西特里诺维奇说，“而这一次，这是一场政权更迭的战争。”

My mum, a privacy-minded German in her 80s, hates using her credit card. She still carries around wads of cash to pay for everything: a coffee, her weekly supermarket shopping — even a plane ticket to visit me in Wales.

我母亲是一位80多岁、极度注重隐私的德国人。她痛恨使用信用卡，至今出门仍揣着厚厚一沓现金，什么都用现金支付：咖啡、每周的超市采购，就连来威尔士看我的机票也不例外。

She would get along with Satoshi Nakamoto, the legendary inventor of Bitcoin who operates under a pseudonym and created the first cryptocurrency — a form of electronic cash that leaves no digital trace for banks and governments to follow.

她肯定能跟中本聪合得来，这位比特币的传奇发明者一直以化名示人，他创造了世界上第一种加密货币——一种不会留下任何数字痕迹、银行和政府都无法追踪的电子现金。

Nakamoto is a godlike figure in the crypto community. But who is he really? Countless people have tried to unmask him. My colleague John Carreyrou, an investigative reporter who uncovered the Theranos scandal, thinks he figured it out. I spoke to him about his investigation.

中本聪在加密货币圈里是神一般的存在。但他究竟是谁？无数人试图揭开他的面纱。我的同事约翰·卡雷鲁——曾经揭露塞拉诺斯丑闻的调查记者——认为他已经找到了答案。我和他聊了聊他的这次调查。

Unmasking Bitcoin’s creator

揭开比特币创造者的真面目

So John, I want to talk about your fascinating Bitcoin investigation. But before we start, can you just give me the 101 version of the Bitcoin origin story?

约翰，我想和你聊聊你这次引人入胜的比特币调查。不过开始之前，能不能先给我讲讲比特币起源的入门知识？

Bitcoin was a revolution in the world of finance. It was the first cryptocurrency and it has given rise to many others. And it was first laid out in a paper that appeared out of nowhere in an obscure corner of the internet in 2008.

比特币是金融界的一场革命。它是第一种加密货币，也催生了此后无数的加密货币。2008年，一篇论文突然出现在互联网一个不起眼的角落，比特币的构想就此首次公之于众。

The author, who identified himself as Satoshi Nakamoto, described his idea of a decentralized electronic currency that people can use to send one another money from all over the world with no fees, no banks and no government overseeing it.

论文作者自称中本聪，他提出了一种去中心化电子货币的理念，人们可以利用它在全球范围内互相转账，无需手续费，无需经过银行，也不受任何政府监管。

OK, let’s talk about Satoshi Nakamoto. How did people become so obsessed with him?

好的，那我们来说说中本聪。为什么人们会对他这么着迷？

People began suspecting pretty quickly that this was a pseudonym. And as the interest in Bitcoin grew — several hundred million people use it today — so did the interest in solving this mystery of his identity. I’ve personally been captivated by this mystery for a dozen years and I spent a year and a half on my story.

人们很快就怀疑这是个化名。而随着比特币的热度不断攀升——如今已有数亿人在使用它，人们也越来越想揭开他的身份之谜。我个人被这个谜团吸引已经有十几年了，为了写这篇报道，我花了一年半的时间。

Why?

为什么？

I think it’s in the public’s interest to know who created this technology that has upended our financial landscape. It’s being used for good — like giving people in countries with unstable currencies a reliable store of value — but it’s also used for many bad purposes because there is no oversight: Criminals use it for money laundering. Iran is using it to circumvent sanctions.

我认为，了解这项颠覆了我们金融格局的技术由谁创造是符合公众利益的。它有好的一面——比如能让生活在货币不稳定国家的人们拥有一种可靠的价值储存手段。但是由于缺乏监管，它也被用于大量不良目的：犯罪分子用它洗钱，伊朗用它规避制裁。

Is that why he didn’t want his identity known?

这就是他不想暴露身份的原因吗？

Well, there’s something very subversive about crypto. Currencies historically are controlled by governments. Bitcoin is under no one’s control. And so one likely reason Satoshi used a pseudonym was because he feared legal retaliation from the U.S. and other governments.

嗯，加密货币本身就带有极强的颠覆性。历史上，货币一直由政府掌控，而比特币不受任何人控制。因此，中本聪使用化名，一个很可能的原因就是害怕遭到美国及其他政府的法律报复。

I think Satoshi also didn’t want people to treat Bitcoin as just another company with a product and a C.E.O. He wants Bitcoin to feel like a discovery, like digital gold — a digital commodity that was discovered and is mined from the ground of the internet. Not having a named founder with a human face helps with that story.

此外，我觉得中本聪也不希望人们把比特币仅仅当作一家拥有产品和首席执行官的普通公司。他希望比特币被看作一项发现，就像数字黄金——一种从互联网的土壤里开采出来的数字商品。没有一个有血有肉的实名创始人更能支撑这种叙事。

So how did you find him?

那你是怎么找到他的？

There is a British computer scientist called Adam Back who is a pretty influential and prominent person in the Bitcoin community. He’s been on the list of the top suspects for many years, but no one ever got close to proving it — and he’s always denied it.

有一位名叫亚当·巴克的英国计算机科学家，在比特币社区极具影响力，非常有名。多年来他一直是头号嫌疑人，但从来没人能拿出确凿证据，他本人也始终矢口否认。

But when I analyzed his and Nakamoto’s writings side by side, I made a number of discoveries. One of them was that both were pathologically incapable of using hyphens correctly. They use hyphens when they’re not needed and don’t use them when correct grammar calls for them to be used.

但当我把他和中本聪的文章逐字逐句放在一起对比分析时，有了一系列惊人的发现。其中之一是：两人都无法正确使用连字符，简直近乎病态——不该用连字符的时候乱用，在语法要求必须用的时候又偏偏不用。

And I figured this was a writing tic that we could perhaps track by doing a broader analysis with the help of A.I., so that’s what we did.

我意识到这是一种独特的写作习惯，或许可以通过借助人工智能进行更广泛的分析来进行追踪，于是我们就这么做了。

How sure are you that it’s him? In your story, Back insisted he wasn’t Satoshi and chalked up the linguistic similarities to a series of coincidences.

你有多确定就是他？你的报道里提到，巴克坚称自己不是中本聪，还把语言上的相似之处归结为一系列巧合。

He continues to deny it. But I’m between 99.5 percent and 100 percent sure. His denials felt pro forma to me, like he’s denying on the record so as to maintain plausible deniability.

他至今仍在否认。但我有99.5%到100%的把握。在我看来，他的否认只是走个过场，仿佛他的正式否认只是为了保留合理的否认余地。

I should say that the Bitcoin community has cultish undertones, and they have their god, Satoshi Nakamoto, and they don’t want anyone to put a human face and name on their god. They want to continue to think of this as a collective, non-hierarchical project, a decentralized electronic currency where no one is in charge. One of their favorite slogans is “We are all Satoshi.”

我必须说，比特币社区带有一定的邪典色彩。他们有自己的神——中本聪，而且不希望有人给他们的神安上具体的面孔和姓名。他们宁愿继续相信比特币是一个集体的、无等级的项目，一种没有人掌控的去中心化电子货币。他们最喜欢的口号之一就是：“我们都是中本聪。”

So who is Adam Back?

那亚当·巴克又是个什么样的人？

He was a member of this group of privacy-minded anarchists in the ’90s who wanted to escape the control, the surveillance and the censorship of the government. They wanted a currency that was outside of governments’ control because they feared that as modern financial transactions got increasingly digitized there would be a computer record of every transaction you made, and that governments would use that to track you. They wanted to get around that by creating what they called “electronic cash,” a digital version of physical cash that you can’t trace.

上世纪90年代，他就是注重隐私的无政府主义群体中的一员。这群人想要摆脱政府的控制、监视和审查。他们渴望一种不受政府掌控的货币，因为他们担心，随着现代金融交易日益数字化，你的每一笔消费都会留下电脑记录，而政府会利用这些记录追踪用户。他们想要创造所谓的“电子现金”——实体现金的数字版本，无法被追踪——来规避这一切。

Apropos cash, how much is he worth by now?

说到现金，他现在身价多少了？

We know that Satoshi mined 1.1 million bitcoins in the first 16 months of the project. At current prices, that means he’s sitting on a fortune of about $82 billion, which would make him one of the richest people in the world.

我们知道，中本聪在比特币项目启动后的前16个月里一共挖出了110万枚比特币。按当前价格计算，他坐拥约820亿美元的财富，足以跻身全球最富有的人之列。

You’ve met Back several times. What’s he like?

你见过巴克好几次，他本人是什么样的？

He’s the opposite of your typical crypto bro. He’s this mild-mannered, nerdy guy. He’s got slightly disheveled, thinning gray hair, a goatee and wire-rimmed glasses. He basically looks like a middle-aged computer scientist. He’s very pleasant to talk to.

他和那些典型的加密圈兄弟们完全相反。他是个温文尔雅、带点书呆子气的人，头发有点乱，灰白稀疏，留着山羊胡，戴着细框眼镜，看起来基本上就是个中年计算机科学家。和他聊天非常愉快。

Back in the ’90s, he would often write posts about the need to operate under an alter ego so as not to raise the suspicion of the government. This is someone who has been plotting this for a very long time.

早在上世纪90年代，他就经常在网上发帖，说需要用化名行事，以免引起政府的怀疑。他已经为这件事谋划了非常非常久。

Hearty, basic and cheap, oats have been eaten for centuries. And now, they’re a staple of wellness culture — for good reason.

几个世纪以来，燕麦一直被作为一种营养丰富、基础且廉价的食物。而现在，它已经成为健康文化的一大支柱——这不无道理。

Oats are a “balanced food” with a good amount of protein, relatively little fat and a variety of vitamins and minerals, said Elizabeth Hyde-Daddio, a dietitian and certified diabetes educator at Northwell Health in Long Island. What really sets them apart, however, is that they’re one of the best sources of a powerful type of fiber.

长岛诺斯韦尔健康中心的营养师兼认证糖尿病教育工作者伊丽莎白·海德-达迪奥说，燕麦是一种“均衡食品”，含有大量的蛋白质、相对较少的脂肪以及各种维生素和矿物质。而真正让它们与众不同的是，它们是一种强大的纤维的最佳来源之一。

Here’s a closer look, along with recipes from New York Times Cooking.

以下是进一步的详细介绍，以及来自《纽约时报》烹饪版(New York Times Cooking)的食谱。

They’re great for your heart.

它们对你的心脏大有裨益。

Many studies have found that oats lower LDL cholesterol, or the “bad” cholesterol that increases your risk of heart attack and stroke.

许多研究发现，燕麦可以降低低密度脂蛋白(LDL)胆固醇，即会增加心脏病发作和中风风险的“坏”胆固醇。

Much of this effect comes from beta-glucan, a type of fiber that thickens the contents inside the gut, trapping cholesterol-rich bile acids and carrying them out of the body.

这种效果在很大程度上来自于β-葡聚糖，这是一种纤维，能够增加肠道内容物的黏稠度，捕获富含胆固醇的胆汁酸，并将其排出体外。

The evidence is strong enough that, since the 1990s, the Food and Drug Administration has linked the beta-glucan in whole oats — at least three grams per day, or what you’d get in a half-cup of rolled oats — to a lower risk of coronary heart disease. In one small trial, consuming this much beta-glucan daily reduced LDL cholesterol by 12 percent after four weeks.

证据非常充分，以至于美国食品和药物管理局自20世纪90年代起就已经将全燕麦中的β-葡聚糖——每天至少三克，或者相当于半杯燕麦片的含量——与降低冠心病风险联系在一起。在一项小型试验中，每天摄入这么多的β-葡聚糖，四周后LDL胆固醇降低了12%。

People who have high cholesterol levels, in particular, can “see immediate, significant benefits,” said Padmanaban Krishnan, an emeritus professor of dairy and food science at South Dakota State University.

南达科他州立大学乳制品与食品科学荣休教授帕德马纳班·克里希南表示，尤其是对于那些胆固醇水平高的人来说，可以“看到立竿见影的显著益处”。

There is also emerging evidence that other compounds in oats, including antioxidants like avenanthramides, may help reduce blood pressure, said Candida Rebello, the director of the nutrition and chronic disease program laboratory at Louisiana State University.

路易斯安那州立大学营养与慢性病项目实验室主任坎迪达·雷贝洛说，还有新的证据表明，燕麦中的其他化合物——包括燕麦蒽酰胺等抗氧化剂——可能有助于降低血压。

They support healthy blood sugar.

它们支持健康的血糖水平。

After carbohydrate-rich meals, blood sugar tends to spike, but studies suggest that oats can blunt the rise, Dr. Rebello said.

雷贝洛说，摄入富含碳水化合物的餐食后血糖往往会飙升，但研究表明燕麦可以减缓这种上升。

High-fiber foods slow digestion and keep glucose from entering the bloodstream too quickly, Dr. Krishnan said, and beta-glucan is especially helpful for this.

克里希南表示，高纤维食物会减缓消化速度，防止葡萄糖过快进入血液，而β-葡聚糖在这一点上特别有帮助。

Eating oats can be particularly beneficial for people with Type 2 diabetes, he added. Some data also suggests oats could help with prevention: In a 2020 study, higher oatmeal consumption (at least two servings per week) was tied to a 21 percent lower risk of developing Type 2 diabetes than lower consumption (less than a serving per month).

他补充说，食用燕麦对2型糖尿病患者尤其有益。一些数据还表明，燕麦可能有助于预防糖尿病：2020年的研究显示，较高的燕麦摄入量（每周至少两份）与较低的2型糖尿病患病风险相关，其风险水平比摄入量低者（每月不足一份）要低21%。

They nourish your gut.

它们滋养你的肠道。

Most Americans don’t get enough fiber, and oats can help fill the gap. There are over four grams (including beta-glucan) in a half-cup of rolled oats; adults should consume 21 to 38 grams of fiber daily, depending on their age and sex.

大多数美国人摄入的纤维不足，而燕麦可以帮助填补这一缺口。半杯燕麦片含有超过四克的纤维（包括β-葡聚糖）；成年人每天应摄入 21至38克纤维，具体取决于他们的年龄和性别。

Oats are also good for your gut. Because beta-glucan isn’t digested well in the small intestine, it makes its way to the colon, where it can feed beneficial gut bacteria and act as a prebiotic, said Barbara Olendzki, the director of the Center for Applied Nutrition at UMass Chan Medical School. Researchers believe this could help support the gut lining and reduce inflammation, especially in people with high cholesterol, obesity and other metabolic diseases.

燕麦也对你的肠道有益。马萨诸塞大学陈氏医学院应用营养中心主任芭芭拉·奥伦茨基表示，由于在小肠中不易被消化，β-葡聚糖会进入结肠，在那里可以滋养有益的肠道细菌并充当益生元。研究人员认为，这可能有助于支持肠道黏膜并减轻炎症，尤其是对高胆固醇、肥胖和其他代谢疾病患者而言。

The fiber in oats can also add bulk to stool and help keep you regular, provided you’re also drinking enough fluids and staying active, Ms. Hyde-Daddio said.

海德-达迪奥说，燕麦中的纤维还可以增加粪便的体积，帮助你保持排便规律，前提是你也摄入了足够的水分并保持活动。

What’s the healthiest way to eat them?

最健康的吃法是什么？

Oat groats are the least processed form of oats, with only the inedible hull removed, while instant oats are the most processed. In between are steel-cut oats (groats chopped into smaller pieces) and rolled oats (steamed and flattened groats).

燕麦仁是加工最少的燕麦形式，只去除了不可食用的外壳，速溶燕麦则是加工最多的。介于两者之间的是钢切燕麦（被切成小块的燕麦仁）和传统压扁燕麦片（经过蒸汽处理并压扁的燕麦仁）。

All of these can be healthy choices, but less-processed versions are generally the best because their beta-glucan is more intact. These types of oats take longer to cook, so Ms. Olendzki recommended prepping ahead of time and microwaving them in the morning.

所有这些都可以是健康的选择，但加工程度较低的版本通常是最好的，因为它们的β-葡聚糖更完整。这些类型的燕麦需要更长的时间来烹饪，因此奥伦茨基建议提前准备好，早上用微波炉加热。

Added sugars in flavored instant oats, or from toppings like maple syrup, can offset some of the health benefits, Ms. Hyde-Daddio said, so try mixing in fruits, nuts or cinnamon instead.

海德-达迪奥说，调味速溶燕麦中的添加糖，或来自枫糖浆等配料的糖可能会抵消一些健康益处，所以尝试加入水果、坚果或肉桂。

And don’t just relegate them to a daily bowl of oatmeal. “You can add oats to pretty much anything,” she said.

不要仅仅把它们局限于每天一碗燕麦粥。“你可以把燕麦加到几乎任何东西里，”她说。

Ready to eat more oats? Here are some recipes from NYT Cooking.

准备好吃更多燕麦了吗？这里有一些来自NYT Cooking的食谱。

Slow-Cooker Steel-Cut Oats

慢炖锅钢切燕麦粥

Julia Gartland for The New York Times (Photography and Styling)

With help from a slow cooker, you can wake up to a hot, zero-effort breakfast. Cooked with only water and salt, the creamy oats can take both savory and sweet toppings.

食谱：慢炖锅钢切燕麦粥This savory breakfast or dinner starts with a versatile hands-off technique for making steel-cut oats.

这份美味的早餐或晚餐源于一种多用途而简便的钢切燕麦粥烹制技巧。

Recipe: Savory Steel-Cut Oats With Fried Egg and Za’atar

食谱：煎蛋加扎塔尔香料咸味钢切燕麦粥

Overnight Oats

隔夜燕麦片

David Malosh for The New York Times

Simply soaked in milk and left uncooked, these oats retain an earthy freshness. Bits of dried fruit complement their natural sweetness.

食谱：隔夜燕麦片With mashed banana and almond butter in the gluten-free batter, these portable treats are wholesome and filling.

在无麸质面糊中加入香蕉泥和杏仁脂，这些便携式小点心既健康又饱腹。

Recipe: Baked Oatmeal Cups

食谱：烤燕麦杯

Lemony Chicken-Feta Meatball Soup With Spinach

柠檬鸡肉羊乳酪肉丸菠菜汤

Oats take the place of bread crumbs in these meatballs, binding the ingredients and keeping everything juicy and tender after cooking.

这些肉丸用燕麦代替了面包屑，将各种配料粘合在一起，并在烹饪后保持多汁鲜嫩。

Recipe: Lemony Chicken-Feta Meatball Soup With Spinach

食谱：柠檬鸡肉羊乳酪肉丸菠菜汤

Five days after 4-year-old Kim Dong Hee had his tonsils removed, he started vomiting blood. He passed out before an ambulance arrived.

四岁的金东希（音）在接受扁桃体切除手术五天后开始吐血。在救护车赶到之前，他就已经失去了意识。

As he was being raced to the hospital where he had his tonsillectomy, near Busan, South Korea’s second largest city, doctors told the paramedics that the emergency room was full. The nearest available E.R. was more than 10 miles away. The trip felt like an eternity to his mother, Kim So Hee. “My vision went white and my head went blank,” she said.

当他被紧急送往位于韩国第二大城市釜山附近、为他实施手术的医院时，医生却告知急救人员，急诊室已满。最近的可接收患者的急诊室在十几二十公里外。对他的母亲金素熙（音）来说，这段路仿佛无比漫长。“我眼前一片空白，脑子里一片茫然，”她说。

By the time a doctor saw Dong Hee, about 30 minutes after the initial call, his airways had been blocked by blood and he had suffered severe brain damage from a lack of oxygen. He remained in a vegetative state and died five months later.

从最初拨打急救电话到医生见到金东希，时间已经过了大约30分钟，此时他的气道已被血液堵塞，因为缺氧而出现了严重的脑损伤。此后，他一直处于植物人状态，五个月后去世。

Despite being one of the wealthiest countries in Asia, South Korea has a buckling emergency-care system. A chronic shortage of E.R. doctors, fewer legal protections for physicians than in other rich nations and a quirk in the emergency response system — paramedics must wait for hospital permission before transporting a patient to an E.R. — have led to delays that can be fatal.

尽管韩国是亚洲最富裕的国家之一，它的急救体系却不堪重负。急诊室医生长期短缺、法律对医生的保护不如其他富裕国家，以及急救响应系统的一个特殊规定——急救人员必须获得医院许可才能将病人送往急诊室——都导致了可能致命的延误。

These hospital rejections — called “E.R. runaround,” “ambulance pingpong” or E.R. “merry-go-round” by the local news media — have become more acute in recent years, government data shows. President Lee Jae Myung has described the failures as systemic.

政府数据显示，这种被韩国新闻媒体称为“急诊室推诿”、“救护车乒乓球”或急诊室“旋转木马”的医院拒收现象近年来愈发严重。韩国总统李在明将这些问题称为系统性失败。

“Patients are dying on the streets, unable to find an E.R. for hours on end,” he said at a cabinet meeting in December and ordered his Health Ministry to fix the system.

他在去年12月的一次内阁会议上说：“患者连续几个小时却不到可以接收的急诊室，甚至因此命丧街头。”他要求卫生部门解决这一问题。

It will not be easy.

但这绝非易事。

金素熙（音）永远失去了儿子东希（音），此前急救人员被告知他们试图前往的第一家急诊室已满。金东希出现了严重的脑损伤，随后一直处于植物人状态，并在五个月后去世。

The average time it takes for major trauma patients to be accepted by an E.R. has doubled since 2019 — the year Dong Hee had his tonsils removed — to 16 minutes and 30 seconds, according to data released by Representative Yang Bu-nam, who is part of a committee that oversees the National Fire Agency.

根据国会议员杨富男公布的数据（他是负责监管消防厅的委员会成员），2019年以来，也就是金东希做扁桃体切除手术的那年，重伤患者被急诊室接收所需的平均时间已翻倍，达到16分30秒。

Last year, the data show, there were more than 1,000 instances when ambulances had to call over 20 hospitals before finding beds for their patients.

数据显示，去年发生了超过1000次救护车在为患者寻找床位时不得不拨打20家以上医院电话的情况。

In October, a woman in her 60s was hit on a crosswalk by a cargo truck in the city of Changwon. An ambulance arrived on the scene quickly but the medics — who called 30 hospitals — could not find an E.R. willing to accept her and she died a couple of hours after the accident, according Representative Yang.

去年10月，昌原市一名60多岁的女子在人行横道上被一辆货车撞倒。救护车迅速赶到现场，但急救人员联系了30家医院，都找不到愿意接收她的急诊室。据杨富男说，她在事故发生数小时后去世。

South Korea has universal health care and its medical system is considered above average among wealthy nations. But it has fewer doctors per capita than most developed nations and many doctors prefer to specialize in fields that pay more than emergency care, such as dermatology and plastic surgery.

韩国拥有全民医保，其医疗体系在富裕国家中也被认为处于中上水平。但韩国的人均医生数量低于大多数发达国家，而且许多医生更倾向于选择收入更高的专科领域，如皮肤科和整形外科，而不是急诊医学。

On top of this, patients seeking care at hospital emergency rooms for “low acuity” conditions can lead to overcrowding, “causing delays in treating high-risk patients,” according to Chris James, a senior health economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

此外，经合组织高级卫生经济学家克里斯·詹姆斯指出，因“轻症”前往医院急诊室就诊的患者也会占用资源，“从而延误对高风险患者的治疗”。

The country’s 119 dispatch system mirrors the U.S. fast response system, where paramedics typically have the authority to determine the best hospital for a patient’s needs. But in South Korea, they must first get permission to arrive from hospitals, which can refuse patients for reasons including staff shortages and an excess of patients.

韩国的119调度系统类似于美国的快速响应体系，在美国，急救人员通常有权根据患者情况决定送往哪家医院。但在韩国，急救人员必须先获得医院的接收许可，而医院可以以人手不足、患者过多等理由拒绝接收。

This, paramedics say, leaves them scrambling to secure a patient’s admission in the race against the “golden time,” or the period in which a critical patient must receive care before suffering permanent damage or even death.

急救人员表示，这使得他们必须在与“黄金时间”——即重症患者在遭受永久性损伤甚至死亡之前必须得到救治的窗口期——赛跑的过程中，手忙脚乱地为患者争取入院机会。

When this happens, “you feel yourself starting to shrink as the stress builds,” said Kim Sung-hyun, who has been a paramedic for over a decade.

在发生这种情况的时候，“随着压力越来越大，你会有一种无力感，”从事急救工作十多年的急救人员金成贤（音）说。

急救人员金成贤（音）在首尔一处应急安全中心。急救人员必须先致电医院并获得接收许可后才能前往。他们可能会被多家急诊室拒绝。

“If we leave this situation as it is, patients will continue to die,” Representative Yang said at an interview at his office in Seoul.

“如果这种状况继续下去，患者还会不断死亡，”杨富男议员在首尔的办公室接受采访时说。

He is pushing for a legal amendment that would grant paramedics the authority to designate hospitals for emergency patients. Separately, the Health Ministry launched a pilot program last month in two provinces and one city that designates specific hospitals as priority destinations for emergency patients.

他正在推动一项法律修正案，赋予急救人员为急诊患者指定接收医院的权力。与此同时，韩国保健福祉部上个月在两个道和一个市启动了试点项目，将特定的医院指定为急诊患者的优先接收单位。

Some E.R. doctors have opposed these plans. “Forcing us to take in patients might reduce the number of rejections on paper, but does little to ensure they receive the care they actually need,” said Kim Changyu, a resident at a hospital E.R. in Seoul.

一些急诊科医生反对这些计划。“强制我们接收患者或许能在纸面上减少拒收数量，但对确保他们真正获得所需治疗帮助不大，”首尔一家医院急诊科的住院医师金昌裕（音）说。

E.R. doctors also worry about legal liability. Physicians in South Korea face criminal charges for medical negligence at rates that are significantly higher than in other wealthy nations, according to studies.

急诊医生还担心法律责任。研究显示，韩国医生因医疗过失面临刑事指控的比例明显高于其他富裕国家。

“The fear of litigation or losing our licenses is what forces us to turn patients away,” Dr. Kim said. “We are human, too.”

金昌裕医生说：“对打官司或吊销执照的恐惧正是迫使我们拒收患者的原因。我们也是人。”

Other doctors, like Changwoo Han, a professor of preventive medicine at Chungnam National University, are in favor of the pilot program because it would expedite the transfer of urgent patients, and put paramedics and hospitals on the same page.

其他一些医生支持这个试点项目，比如忠南大学预防医学教授韩昌宇（音），因为这样可以加快急重症患者的转运，让急救人员和医院实现步调一致。

Many of the doctors’ concerns surfaced during an 18-month junior doctors’ strike that ended in September 2025.

医生们的诸多担忧在2025年9月结束的一场持续18个月的实习医生和住院医生的罢工中浮出水面。

While the core of that dispute was centered around a government proposal to increase the number of medical school students, doctors’ grievances included tough working environments, low wages in departments like emergency care and a lack of legal protection for physicians working with critical patients.

虽然这场争议的核心是政府提出增加医学院招生人数的计划，但医生的不满还包括恶劣的工作环境、急诊等科室较低的薪资，以及在救治危重患者时缺乏法律保障。

Mr. Lee’s government has taken a more conciliatory tone with the medical community and agreed to scale back plans for medical school admissions.

李在明政府对医学界采取了更为安抚的态度，并同意缩减医学院扩招计划。

The majority of E.R. patients in South Korea do not call for an ambulance but are walk-ins, according to government figures. That is a testament to the quality of care people get, but even walk-in patients are often turned away.

根据政府数据，韩国大多数急诊患者并非通过救护车送医，而是自行前往。这在一定程度上体现了医疗服务的可及性，但即使是自行前来的患者也常常被拒之门外。

国会议员杨富男正在推动修改法律，赋予急救人员为急诊患者指定接收医院的权力。根据政府数据，韩国大多数急诊患者并非乘坐救护车到达，而是自行前往。

In the summer of 2024, Andrea Kwon, who works in marketing in Seoul, developed a fever and sore throat that lingered for weeks. Then, her skin turned yellowed, her stomach began to bloat and the mere smell of food triggered nausea. After visiting several neighborhood clinics, she was diagnosed with liver stones and was advised to go to an E.R.

2024年夏天，在首尔从事市场营销工作的安德里亚·权出现了持续数周的发烧和喉痛。随后，她的皮肤开始发黄，腹部胀大，光是闻到食物味道就感到恶心。在看了几家社区诊所后，她被诊断出肝结石，并被建议去看急诊。

Ms. Kwon, who said she is in her 20s, went to one only to be told to go home as no liver specialists were available. A referral to another hospital brought similar news.

自称20多岁的权女士去看急诊，却被告知没有肝病专科医生，让她回家。转到另一家医院，得到的答复也差不多。

By that point, she was feeling so ill she could not walk properly. “I was terrified. I felt completely helpless,” she said. Eventually, Ms. Kwon was able to get an appointment with a specialist at a hospital who diagnosed her with the Epstein-Barr virus, an infection that can sometimes attack the liver.

到那时，她已经病得连路都走不稳了。“我非常害怕，感到完全无助，”她说。最终，权女士在一家医院预约到了专科医生，被诊断出感染了EB病毒——这种感染有时会攻击肝脏。

While the government and doctors quibble over policy, patients and their families say lives are being put at risk. Some have turned to the courts in hopes of seeking justice for loved ones who they believe died because of rejections at E.R.’s.

在政府和医生为政策争论不休的同时，患者及其家属表示，生命正被置于危险之中。一些人已经诉诸法庭，希望能为他们认为因急诊室拒收而去世的亲人讨回公道。

In December 2019, Ms. Kim, Dong Hee’s mother, filed a criminal complaint against the doctors and hospital that refused to accept her son.

2019年12月，金东希的母亲金女士对拒绝收诊的医生和医院提起了刑事控告。

Last year, a court ruled that the doctors were not guilty of professional negligence. But it said some were guilty of violating medical law and that one had falsely claimed that the emergency room was busy with another patient.

去年，法院裁定医生们不构成职业过失罪。但裁定其中一些人违反了医疗法，并指出有一名医生谎称急诊室正忙于救治另一名患者。

“The verdict is truly disastrous. Medical professionals know better than anyone that the result of refusing a patient could be death,” said Ms. Kim, who plans on appealing the verdict. “Everything is backward.”

“这个判决简直太糟糕了。医护人员比谁都清楚，拒收患者的后果可能是死亡，”计划上诉的金女士说道。“一切都颠倒了。”

Ms. Kim now lives with her parents and younger son in Busan. Her husband, Dong Hee’s father, died after a yearslong battle with leukemia in 2022. “Dong Hee was a bright, brave and precious child,” she said. “He was the hope that kept his father fighting for his life.”

目前，金女士与父母及小儿子住在釜山。2022年，她的丈夫、金东希的父亲在与白血病抗争多年后去世。“东希是个聪明、勇敢而珍贵的孩子，”她说，“他是支撑他父亲与病魔抗争的希望。”

金素熙与她的小儿子在釜山步行回家。

A 10-day cease-fire went into effect at midnight on Friday morning in Lebanon. The truce pauses fighting between Israeli forces and the militant group Hezbollah, removing a major obstacle to peace talks between the United States and Iran.

黎巴嫩为期10天的停火协议于周五凌晨零时正式生效。这份停火协议暂停了以色列军队与武装组织真主党之间的战事，为美国与伊朗的和平谈判扫清了一大障碍。

Israeli and Lebanese officials had confirmed they would implement the truce, which was first announced by President Trump after a diplomatic push by the U.S. government earlier in the day. Hezbollah acknowledged the cease-fire in a pair of statements on Thursday, but did not directly address whether it would accept the truce, saying its actions would be “based on how developments unfold.”

以色列和黎巴嫩官员已确认将执行该停火协议。这份协议是特朗普总统在美国政府当日早些时候展开外交斡旋后首次宣布的。真主党周四在两份声明中承认了停火协议的存在，但未直接表明是否接受，称其行动将“视事态发展而定”。

Israel and Hezbollah had continued to trade strikes in the hours before the cease-fire was set to take effect, according to statements from each military.

双方军方发布的声明显示，在停火协议生效前的数小时内，以色列与真主党仍在相互发动袭击。

The U.S. State Department, outlining the truce in a memo on Thursday, said that Israel would retain its right “to take all necessary measures in self-defense,” but would not carry out “offensive operations” against Lebanese targets by land, air or sea. The Lebanese government, with international support, is expected to take “meaningful steps” to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against Israeli targets.

美国国务院周四在一份备忘录中阐明了停火协议的核心内容：以色列将保留“采取一切必要自卫措施”的权利，但不会从陆、海、空三方面对黎巴嫩目标发动“进攻性行动”；黎巴嫩政府则需在国际社会支持下，采取“切实措施”防止真主党袭击以色列目标。

The Lebanese government does not have direct control over Hezbollah, an armed group considered more powerful than the state’s military. Still, Hezbollah has abided by some previous deals negotiated by the Lebanese government.

黎巴嫩政府无法直接控制真主党——这支武装组织的实力被认为比国家军队更强大。不过，真主党此前曾遵守过由黎巴嫩政府谈判达成的部分协议。

The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has threatened to upend the two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran, which is set to expire next week. Iran has insisted the cease-fire must cover attacks on its ally Hezbollah, too.

以色列与伊朗最强大的代理人真主党之间的战事曾一度威胁到美伊两国为期两周的停火协议，该协议将于下周到期。伊朗此前一直坚称，停火协议必须同时覆盖对其盟友真主党的袭击。

Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House that the next in-person negotiations with Iran might occur this weekend. Mr. Trump said he would consider extending the pause in fighting if the United States is close to a deal with Iran. He has repeatedly suggested a deal is near.

特朗普在白宫对记者表示，与伊朗的下一轮面对面谈判可能于本周末举行。他称，如果美国与伊朗的谈判接近达成协议，会考虑延长停火期限。特朗普已多次暗示协议已经近在咫尺。

It was not clear whether Lebanese displaced from the country’s south would be able to return home; Israel has signaled recently that it was planning to occupy large parts of the area even after the current conflict.

目前尚不清楚从黎巴嫩南部撤离的流离失所者能否返回家园；以色列近期已放出信号，即便当前冲突结束，也计划占领该地区的大片土地。

More than 2,100 people have been killed in Lebanon during the current round of fighting, Lebanese authorities say, and over one million residents displaced. At least 13 Israeli soldiers have also been killed, along with two civilians, according to the Israeli authorities.

黎巴嫩当局称，本轮冲突已造成黎巴嫩境内超过2100人死亡，逾100万居民流离失所。以色列当局表示，至少有13名以色列士兵和2名平民在冲突中丧生。

Here’s what else we are covering:

以下是我们正在报道的其他内容：

• U.S. threats: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday renewed U.S. threats to attack Iran’s power plants and other energy sites if its leaders did not agree to a peace deal.

· 美国的威胁：美国国防部长海格塞思周四重申，若伊朗领导人不同意达成和平协议，美国将袭击伊朗的发电厂及其他能源设施。

• Help from automakers: The Pentagon has met with executives of Ford Motor and General Motors to gauge whether the auto industry could help the military replenish some supplies. Read more ›

· 汽车制造商的援助：五角大楼已与福特汽车公司和通用汽车公司的高管会面，评估汽车行业能否协助军方补充部分物资。阅读更多 ›

• Iran talks: On Thursday, Pakistan said that it expected to host a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran but declined to give a date, as senior Pakistani mediators visited Tehran in an effort to shore up the U.S.-Iran cease-fire.

· 伊朗谈判进展：周四，巴基斯坦表示预计将主持美伊第二轮谈判，但拒绝透露具体日期。巴基斯坦高级调解人当日访问德黑兰，旨在巩固美伊停火协议。

• Timeline: Here’s a brief history of Israel-Lebanon relations.

·时间线：以色列与黎巴嫩关系简史。

In a 12-hour span this week, President Trump promised that the war with Iran was ending soon. He picked a fight with the pope on social media. He threatened to fire the chair of the Federal Reserve. He posted an illustration of himself receiving an encouraging hug from Jesus Christ.

本周，在短短12小时内，特朗普总统承诺与伊朗的战争即将结束。他在社交媒体上对教宗发起挑衅。他威胁要解雇美联储主席。他还发布了一张画，展示耶稣基督正拥抱他以示鼓励。

This is what it looks like when Mr. Trump is under pressure and burrowing his way into a more flattering news cycle. And anyone who has been paying even a little bit of attention over the past decade can pinpoint where we are in a well-established routine, when, intentionally or not, the president tosses out little rhetorical grenades meant to shift attention elsewhere. (It often works: Remember last week, when he threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization?)

这就是特朗普在承受压力时，试图钻进一个更讨喜的新闻周期时的样子。过去十年，只要稍加留意的人都能准确指出，存在这样一个熟练的套路：总统有意或无意地抛出一个个言辞的手雷，目的是把注意力转移到别处。（这一招经常奏效：还记得上周他威胁要消灭伊朗文明吗？）

Now, Mr. Trump is showering Truth Social with Jesus memes and threats and endorsements.

现在，特朗普正在Truth Social上用耶稣表情包、威胁和各种表态支持刷屏。

“The Radical Left Lunatics might not like this, but I think it is quite nice!!!” he posted alongside an illustration of Jesus with his arm around the president’s shoulder and an American flag in the background.

“激进左派疯子们可能不喜欢这个，但我认为这相当不错！！！”他在一张图画旁配文道。图中耶稣用手臂搂着总统的肩膀，背景是一面美国国旗。

What makes this different from all the other times is that he cannot post his way out of a war he started without congressional permission or without the support of voters.

与以往不同的是，这一次他无法仅仅通过发帖就从一场未经国会授权、也缺乏选民支持的战争中脱身。

A fan of quick, in-and-out military operations that showcase the power of the U.S. military, Mr. Trump has grown frustrated that the war in Iran has taken longer than he had originally thought it would. His latest decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route, has required more than 10,000 soldiers, as well as dozens of planes and warships. All the while, he has continued his usual practice of lashing out at critics. This time, he has damaged relationships with key allies, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, and made it harder for Republicans to keep the focus on economic issues in a midterm election year.

特朗普一向喜欢快速进出、能展示美国军事实力的军事行动，但他对伊朗战争持续时间超出自己最初预期的现状越来越感到沮丧。他最近决定封锁霍尔木兹海峡这一关键石油通道的决定已经动用了超过1万名士兵，数十架飞机和军舰。与此同时，他继续一如既往地猛烈抨击批评者。这一次，他损害了与关键盟友的关系，包括意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼，并让共和党人更难在中期选举年将注意力集中在经济议题上。

“President Trump has taken courageous action to address a threat that past presidents have talked about for 47 years, but only he had the courage to address,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “The United States military quickly achieved all of the goals enumerated at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury,” she added, referring to the name of the campaign in Iran.

“特朗普总统采取了勇敢的行动，来应对过去47年来历届总统只是嘴上说说，却只有他有勇气真正去解决的威胁，”白宫发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中说。“美国军队迅速实现了‘史诗愤怒行动’一开始列出的所有目标，”她补充道，“史诗愤怒”是对这场伊朗战争的称呼。

Ms. Kelly said that the blockade was “increasing leverage as U.S. negotiators work to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat for good.”

凯利表示，此次封锁行动“让美国谈判代表能有更多的筹码，以求彻底消除伊朗的核威胁”。

Inside the White House, some of Mr. Trump’s advisers have privately acknowledged that his attack on the pope was not productive. They believe a slate of events later this week will help shift attention toward some of the administration’s economic initiatives, and a tax season that has some Americans celebrating larger-than-average returns.

在白宫内部，特朗普的一些顾问私下承认，他对教宗的攻击并不明智。他们认为，本周晚些时候的一系列活动将有助于将注意力转移到政府的一些经济举措上，另外在这个报税季，一些美国人将欣喜地看到高于平均水平的退税。

周一，在麦当劳送餐到白宫后，特朗普走回椭圆形办公室。

“President Trump has always been able to enact America First foreign policy while enhancing the livelihoods of Americans at home, including by cutting taxes, re-shoring manufacturing, eliminating burdensome regulations, and more,” Ms. Kelly said.

“特朗普总统始终能够在推行‘美国优先’外交政策的同时，提升美国人在国内的生活水平，包括减税、制造业回流、取消繁琐监管等等，”凯利说。

Investors seem impatient for the war in Iran to end, too. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, reflecting optimism that a peace deal would be reached before the war inflicts significant damage on corporate America.

投资者似乎也焦急地盼望着伊朗战争尽快结束。标普500指数周三创下新高，反映出市场乐观认为，在战争对美国企业造成重大损害之前，和平协议就能达成。

Earlier in the day, Mr. Trump sat for an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business, who wanted to know whether his decision to blockade the strait had positively affected negotiations with Tehran.

当天早些时候，特朗普接受了福克斯商业频道玛丽亚·巴蒂罗莫的采访，后者想知道他封锁海峡的决定是否对与德黑兰的谈判产生了积极影响。

“The leaders they have now — it’s a new regime, OK?” Mr. Trump said, adding: “And I think we’re doing very well, but it only matters what the end result is, and maybe it’ll happen fairly soon. Who knows?”

“他们现在的领导人——这是一个新政权了，好吗？”特朗普说，“并且我认为我们做得很好，但最终结果才是最重要的，也许很快就会有结果。谁知道呢？”

A conga line of reporters also call and ask him about whatever they want to, creating additional mini news cycles. “Trump reacts to FEMA official’s claim he teleported to Waffle House,” was a headline that appeared on CNN’s website this week. It was bizarre and funny, the sort of attention-grabber that keeps Mr. Trump picking up to chat in the first place.

还有许多记者会打电话给他，问他任何他们想问的问题，从而制造出更多小型新闻周期。“特朗普得知FEMA官员声称‘瞬移’到华夫饼屋后的反应”这样的标题本周出现在CNN网站上。这既离奇又搞笑，正是这类能吸引眼球的东西让特朗普一开始就乐于接电话聊天。

And then there is what counts as business as usual at the White House, when Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, ended a briefing with reporters on Wednesday by showing off renderings of a 250-foot-tall arch that Mr. Trump wants built along the Potomac River to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States.

此外还有在白宫被视为司空见惯的事情：周三，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在结束记者会时，展示了一座高约76米的拱门的效果图，这是特朗普希望在波托马克河畔建造的，以纪念美国建国250周年。

For anyone trying to keep up, this all has a kaleidoscopic, disorienting effect. But let’s peel our eyes from the Waffle House and the Jesus memes and the giant stone arch and pause for a question: Isn’t getting into a fight with the Vatican during the middle of a war — and during a midterm election year when the main topic of discussion is the high cost of living — a little extreme, even for Mr. Trump?

对于任何试图跟上节奏的人来说，这一切都有一种令人眼花缭乱、迷失方向的效果。但让我们把目光从华夫饼屋、耶稣表情包和巨大的石拱门上移开，停下来问一个问题：在战争期间——并且在以高昂生活成本为主要讨论话题的中期选举年——与梵蒂冈发生争执，即使对特朗普来说，难道不是有点太极端了吗？

As usual, and as it has always been, this depends on whom you ask.

像往常一样——从来都是这样——这取决于你问谁。

“He has always been like this,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “It all depends upon whether his recent behavior affects his job approval or changes anyone’s opinion about him that they didn’t already have before.”

“他一直都是这样，”资深共和党民意调查专家惠特·艾尔斯说。“这完全取决于他最近的行为是否会影响他的支持率，或者终于改变了某些人对他的看法。”

According to Mr. Ayres, the most critical variable in a midterm election is the job approval of the president. When a president has an approval above 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 14. When the president’s job approval is below 50 percent, the average loss for his party in the House is 32 seats.

根据艾尔斯的说法，中期选举中最关键的变量是总统的支持率。当一个总统的支持率高于50%时，其所在政党在众议院平均失去14个席位。当支持率低于50%时，其政党在众议院平均失去32个席位。

上周，特朗普准备离开白宫，前往迈阿密。

Mr. Trump’s job approval sits at about 39 percent. It hit a first-term low of 34 percent when Mr. Trump left office in January 2021. Mr. Trump had spent much of the previous year minimizing the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and lost the election. The month he left office, as many as 4,000 Americans were dying each day from the virus.

特朗普目前的工作支持率约为39%。当特朗普在2021年1月卸任时，支持率曾触及他第一任期的最低点34%。在那之前的大部分时间里，特朗普都在极力淡化新冠疫情的影响，并输掉了选举。在他卸任的那个月，每天有多达4000名美国人死于该病毒。

When the moment calls for Mr. Trump to publicly show empathy, he often leaves that work to others. When the moment calls for him to put the phone down or back away from a critic, he hits back harder.

当到了需要特朗普公开表达同理心的时刻，他通常会把这项工作留给别人。当到了需要他放下手机或对批评者退让一步的时刻，他会进行更猛烈的反击。

“He’ll double down, lie more and say that everything’s perfectly fine and great, and then do all his bonkers postings,” said Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary for Mr. Trump.

“他会加倍下注，撒更多的谎，声称一切都非常棒、非常好，然后发布他所有那些疯狂的帖子，”特朗普前白宫新闻秘书斯蒂芬妮·格里沙姆说。

But she added: “He’s being erratic, even for him.”

但她也说：“即使对他来说，他也显得太反复无常了。”

With a handful of months to go until the midterm elections, Republican leaders are left with a few choices. Some are choosing their public remarks carefully, gently persuading Mr. Trump — and the White House — to mind the economy.

距离中期选举仅剩几个月，留给共和党领导人的选择已经不多了。一些人正在谨慎选择他们的公开言论，温和地劝说特朗普——以及白宫——多关注经济。

“I’d stay focused on the administration, on the economic issues, the pocketbook issues that I think most Americans care about, and let the church be the church,” Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota and the majority leader, told reporters on Wednesday. Mr. Thune was responding to a question about Vice President JD Vance warning the pope, the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics — a group that includes Mr. Vance — to be “careful” when talking about theology.

南达科他州共和党参议员、多数党领袖约翰·图恩周三告诉记者：“我会把重点放在政府工作上，放在我认为大多数美国人关心的经济问题和钱包问题上，让教会做教会该做的事。”图恩此番言论是在回应一个问题，即副总统JD·万斯警告教宗——14亿天主教徒（包括万斯本人）的精神领袖——在谈论神学时要“小心”。

In the House on Wednesday, six Republicans joined Democrats in moving to force a vote on a measure that would reinstate deportation protections for about 350,000 Haitians living in the United States. The Trump administration has tried to eliminate those temporary protections.

周三在众议院，六名共和党人与民主党人联手推动强制对一项措施进行投票，将恢复对居住在美国的大约35万名海地人的驱逐保护。特朗普政府一直试图取消这些临时保护措施。

G.O.P. leaders also delayed a debate on extending a high-profile warrantless surveillance law because of a rebellion over the bill in their ranks, despite Mr. Trump’s latest Truth Social order directing them to move forward.

共和党领导人还推迟了关于延长一项备受瞩目的无令状监视法的辩论，原因是他们内部对该法案出现了反叛，尽管特朗普最近在Truth Social上下达了指示，要求他们推进该法案。

“I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country!” he declared on social media — striking, given his history of railing against the F.B.I.’s use of a different part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, during the investigation into Russia and his 2016 campaign.

“为了我们伟大的军队和国家，我愿意冒着放弃我作为公民的权利和特权的风险！”他在社交媒体上宣布——这句话令人惊讶，因为在调查俄罗斯及其2016年竞选活动期间，他曾多次猛烈抨击联邦调查局对《外国情报监视法》(FISA)的另一部分条款的利用。

As the United States imposes a blockade of Iranian ports, pressure is mounting on Beijing to push Tehran to accept terms that will end the war and the global energy crisis. In reality, there is little that Beijing could or would do to pressure its partner in the Middle East.

随着美国对伊朗港口实施封锁，北京方面正面临越来越大的压力，要求它推动德黑兰接受结束战争与全球能源危机的条件。但实际上，中国无论从能力还是意愿上，都不会去施压它的这个中东伙伴。

This week, as an array of leaders including the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the prime minister of Spain visited Beijing, the question of what China could do to help resolve the crisis was the inescapable backdrop to every meeting. In these talks, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, condemned the flouting of international law as a “return to the law of the jungle” — a not-so-veiled dig at President Trump — and offered “a Chinese solution” in the form of a four-point plan to resolve the crisis.

本周，随着包括阿布扎比王储和西班牙首相在内的一系列领导人访问北京，中国能为解决危机做些什么成为每一场会谈无法回避的背景。在这些会谈中，中国国家主席习近平谴责无视国际法的行为是“倒回丛林法则”——这是对特朗普总统毫不隐晦的讽刺——并提出以四点主张为核心的“中国方案”来解决危机。

But that plan offers little more than a call for all to respect the principle of sovereignty and international law. It reflects how China, even as it grows more concerned about the war’s impact on its economy, has avoided becoming too entangled in the crisis. That includes being noncommittal in its response to Tehran’s calls for China to guarantee its security, as well as not using its influence as Iran’s largest trading partner to push the country to accept U.S. demands.

但这一方案除了呼吁各方尊重主权原则和国际法之外，并未提供更多实质内容。这反映出，中国尽管越来越担心战争对其经济的影响，但仍避免过度卷入危机。这包括对德黑兰呼吁中国保证其安全的请求不置可否，以及不利用其作为伊朗最大贸易伙伴的影响力来推动它接受美国的要求。

Asking China to pressure Iran is to “misread China’s foreign policy and position,” said Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. “Helping the United States or Israel is not China’s intention because China opposed this war from the very beginning.”

上海外国语大学中东研究所教授丁隆表示，要求中国向伊朗施压是“对中国的外交政策和立场的误读”。他说：“帮助美国或以色列不是中国的意图，因为中国从一开始就反对这场战争。”

中国国家主席习近平周二在北京会见了来自阿布扎比的代表团，其中包括王储。关于中国能在多大程度上帮助解决伊朗危机的问题成为此次会谈挥之不去的背景。

China, which has long claimed that it does not interfere in other countries’ affairs, wants to be viewed as a global leader on its own terms. Unlike the United States, which has long maintained its dominance through its defense alliances, China has only one treaty ally, North Korea.

中国长期以来一直声称不干涉他国内政，希望以自己的方式被视为全球领导者。与长期通过防务联盟来维持主导地位的美国不同，中国只有一个条约盟友，即朝鲜。

And China’s rulers have little desire to commit to another nation’s defense and risk being dragged into a costly war that ultimately undermines their own country’s strength.

而且，中国领导人几乎没有意愿为其他国家提供防务承诺，更不愿被拖入一场代价高昂、最终削弱自身实力的战争。

“Chinese leaders tend to view U.S. interventions in the Middle East as a key driver of American decline and they have no interest in following that model,” said Patricia Kim, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center.

布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心高级研究员帕特里夏·金表示：“中国领导人倾向于将美国对中东的干预视为美国衰落的关键驱动因素，他们没有兴趣效仿这种模式。”

Yes, the Iran war hurts China too.

是的，伊朗战争同样会伤害到中国。

China has a lot to lose if the conflict in Iran continues. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for China’s energy and goods — about a third of its total crude oil imports come from the Persian Gulf. At a time when China is especially reliant on exports to prop up its economy, higher energy costs will cut into demand for Chinese goods.

如果伊朗冲突持续下去，中国将损失惨重。霍尔木兹海峡是中国能源和商品运输的关键通道——中国约三分之一的原油进口来自波斯湾。在中国尤其依赖出口来支撑经济的时候，能源成本上升会抑制对中国商品的需求。

“They have strategic reserves, but it’s not going to last forever,” said Yun Sun, a scholar at the Stimson Center in Washington, referring to oil reserves that China began stockpiling before the war began. “They don’t like instability. They don’t like a war that’s basically hanging over their head,” she added.

华盛顿史汀生中心学者孙韵表示，中国确实拥有战略储备，但“这不可能一直撑下去”，她指的是中国在战争爆发前就开始囤积的石油储备。她补充说：“他们不喜欢不稳定的局势，也不喜欢这种基本上是悬在头上的战争。”

上海的一家石化厂。能源成本上升将会抑制对中国商品的需求。

In a sign of growing concern, Chinese officials engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity this week after talks between the United States and Iran failed to produce a peace agreement.

在美伊谈判未能达成和平协议后，中国官员本周展开了一系列密集的外交活动，显示出日益加深的担忧。

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called on his counterpart in Pakistan, which hosted the talks, to help sustain the “hard-won momentum” of the temporary cease-fire struck last week. Speaking with Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday, Mr. Wang said that China continued to support Iran, but he also urged that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, saying freedom of navigation should “also be guaranteed.”

中国外交部长王毅致电巴基斯坦外长——巴基斯坦是此次谈判的主办方——呼吁其帮助保持上周达成的临时停火所取得的“来之不易停火势头”。在周三与伊朗外长通话时，王毅表示中国将继续支持伊朗，但同时也敦促重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，称航行自由“也应得到保障”。

But Washington’s distraction is also an opportunity.

不过，美国的注意力被分散对中国来说也是一个机会。

In some ways, the war also benefits Beijing. The United States is bogged down in the Middle East rather than focused on the Indo-Pacific, or deterring China’s threats to take Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

从某些方面来看，这场战争也让北京受益。美国被困在中东，而不是将注意力集中在印太地区，或遏制中国对台湾（北京宣称台湾为其领土）的威胁。

And China has been able to use America’s military actions as a way to cast itself by contrast as a peaceful nation that champions global stability.The war also means that more countries, frustrated with Mr. Trump, are turning to China as a more predictable partner.

而中国则能利用美国的军事行动反衬出自己是一个倡导全球稳定的和平国家。这场战争还意味着，更多对特朗普感到失望的国家正转向中国，视其为更具可预见性的合作伙伴

“I think its 50-50 good and bad,” said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. He said that while rising energy costs hurt China’s economy, dissatisfaction with Washington is pushing countries to strengthen ties with China, which helps expand Beijing’s global influence.

“我认为好坏参半，”上海复旦大学美中关系方面的专家信强说。他表示，虽然能源成本上涨损害了中国经济，但对华盛顿的不满正促使各国加强与中国的关系，这有助于扩大北京的全球影响力。

“It shows that China is — at least as we see it — a more responsible country than the United States,” he said. “We’re more trustworthy, more rational and more peaceful.”

“这表明中国——至少在我们看来——是一个比美国更负责任的国家，”他说。“我们更值得信赖、更理性、更爱好和平。”

China doesn’t want to be blamed if peace talks fail.

如果和谈失败，中国不想受到指责。

When Iranian officials credited China for helping push through the cease-fire agreement last week, Beijing did not confirm or deny a role. A foreign ministry spokeswoman said only that China was “working actively” to bring about an end to the crisis.

当伊朗官员上周将促成停火协议的部分功劳归于中国时，北京既未证实也未否认自己所扮演的角色。中国外交部一位发言人仅表示，中国“一直积极致力于”推动危机结束。

That sidestepping suggests that Beijing, wary of the possibility that the cease-fire might fail, played only an indirect role in the talks, according to some analysts, and at most encouraged the sides to come to the table. (Iran may be overstating China’s role in an effort push Beijing to be more vested in any agreement with the United States, according to Dr. Sun.)

一些分析人士认为，这种回避态度表明，北京方面担心停火可能失败，因此在谈判中只发挥了间接作用，最多只是鼓励各方坐到谈判桌前。（孙韵认为，伊朗可能夸大了中国的作用，目的是在与美国达成的任何协议中让北京拥有更大的利益牵扯。）

“I think it is highly unlikely China took an active role in that mediation attempt. The risks are high. It fears being blamed,” said Sarah Beran, a partner at Macro Advisory Partners who served as senior director for China and Taiwan affairs in President Biden’s National Security Council.

曾在拜登政府国家安全委员会担任中国与台湾事务高级主任、现为Macro Advisory Partners合伙人的贝莎兰(Sarah Beran)表示：“我认为中国在调解中发挥积极作用的可能性极低。风险太高了，它害怕承担责任。”

中国外部王毅与巴基斯坦外长达尔上个月在北京会面。本周，王毅敦促巴基斯坦帮助保持“来之不易停火势头”。

China argues that every country has the right to govern itself without outside meddling and positions itself as a power that does not bully others. (Yet, when it comes to what it considers China’s own interests — such as its claims over Taiwan and in the South China Sea — China has used trade bans, tariffs and sent its military and Coast Guard to apply pressure on other countries.)

中国主张，各国都有权在不受外部干涉的情况下进行治理，并将自己定位为一个不欺负他国的大国。（然而，在涉及自身核心利益时，例如对台湾以及南中国海的主权主张，中国就动用了贸易禁令和关税手段，并派遣军队和海警向其他国家施压。）

Also, China lacks the military might to enforce its will.

此外，中国也缺乏足够的军事实力来强推自己的意志。

Part of China’s reluctance to get more involved in the crisis in the Middle East is also a question of capability.

中国不愿更深入地介入中东危机，部分原因也在于能力问题。

China’s rapidly expanding military does not have an expansive network of overseas bases like the United States does, though its navy has stationed an antipiracy task force in the Gulf of Aden since 2008. So far, it has not been deployed to guard Chinese vessels, a step experts say would be unlikely unless Chinese ships came under direct attack.

尽管中国军力迅速扩张，但尚未像美国那样拥有遍布全球的海外军事基地网络。不过，自2008年以来，中国海军一直在亚丁湾部署反海盗护航编队。到目前为止，该护航编队尚未用于护卫中国船只——专家表示，除非中国船只遭到直接攻击，否则不太可能采取这一步。

“China can definitely play a role, but that role remains limited,” said Dr. Xin of Fudan University.

“中国当然可以发挥作用，但这个作用仍然是有限的，”复旦大学的信强博士说。

“If Iran needs security guarantees, it’s very difficult for China to provide them,” he said. “If the U.S. wants Iran to abandon its nuclear program, China has no way to force Iran to give it up.”

“如果伊朗需要安全保障，中国很难提供，”他表示。“如果美国希望伊朗放弃核计划，中国也无法强迫伊朗放弃。”

While Beijing is eager to push for peace, it is also constrained by competing priorities. It needs to manage the economic fallout of the energy crisis, reset its relationship with Washington ahead of a summit between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump, and maintain its ties with both Iran and the Gulf states, which have come under attack from Tehran.

尽管北京有意推动和平进程，但也受到多重优先事项的制约。它既需要应对能源危机带来的经济冲击，又要在习近平与特朗普会晤前重新调整与美国的关系，同时还要维持与伊朗以及海湾国家的关系——而这些海湾国家正受到来自德黑兰的攻击。

As the prospect of a quick victory over Iran by the United States and Israel appears less likely, Beijing’s calculus has shifted.

随着美国和以色列迅速击败伊朗的可能性越来越低，北京的战略考量也发生了变化。

“Had the U.S. been victorious within a week or two, the Chinese would have gone with it,” said Dr. Sun.

“如果美国在一两周内获胜，中国人会顺势跟进，”孙韵说。

Now, China’s current strategy is to seek a cease-fire as quickly as possible, she said, and try to “maximize China’s role, although indirect, in the mediation so that China gains more credibility.”

她表示，目前中国的策略是尽快促成停火，同时“在调解过程中尽量扩大中国的作用，哪怕是间接的，从而提升中国的国际信誉”。

With the United States and China vying for influence in Asia, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is keen to show that Vietnam is in his corner on trade, political ideology and, increasingly, security.

在美国与中国争夺亚洲影响力之际，中国领导人习近平极力想表明，越南在贸易、政治意识形态以及日益重要的安全领域站在中国一边。

That was underscored this week when Mr. Xi met with Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, in Beijing. Mr. Xi alluded to President Trump’s tariffs and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for China and Vietnam to ensure that trade flowed normally and their industrial supply chains were protected.

本周，习近平在北京会见越南新任领导人苏林时，这一点得到了体现。习近平提到了特朗普总统的关税以及霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，以此作为中越需要确保贸易畅通、保护工业供应链的理由。

He also appealed to the two nations’ shared kinship as single-party, communist states.

他还以两国作为一党制共产主义国家的共同纽带来拉近彼此。

“Defending the socialist system and the ruling position of the Communist Party is the greatest common strategic interest,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Lam on Wednesday.

“捍卫社会主义制度和共产党执政地位，是中越两党最大的共同战略利益，”习近平周三对苏林表示。

While both sides agreed to strengthen ties in tourism, education and railway infrastructure, it was their pledges to work more closely on security that may provide China with the greatest advantage over the United States in the rivalry for deeper inroads with Vietnam.

虽然双方同意加强在旅游、教育和铁路基础设施方面的合作，但正是两国在安全领域加强合作的承诺，可能让中国在与美国争夺越南影响力的较量中占据最大优势

As part of its diplomatic outreach, China has been pitching friendly countries its concept of global security, one that prioritizes regime protection above everything else. That has had purchase in Vietnam, which like China, has little tolerance for dissent and has remained repressive even as its economy has developed and opened up to the outside world.

作为外交努力的一部分，中国正向友好国家推广它的全球安全倡议，该倡议将政权安全置于首位。这在越南引起了共鸣——与中国类似，越南也容不得半点不同声音，即使在经济发展和对外开放的过程中，也始终保持着高压统治。

Mr. Lam, a former security chief, recently secured Vietnam’s two most powerful posts, as Communist Party general secretary and the country’s president, an elevation that moves Vietnam closer to the strongman model of China, which Hanoi had long avoided. Even as Mr. Lam has pushed economic changes to unleash the private sector, he has given more power to the police, expanding their reach into business and surveillance.

苏林曾任安全系统负责人，最近同时掌握了越南最具权力的两个职位——越共总书记和国家主席。这一地位的提升使越南更接近中国那种强人治理模式，而河内长期以来一直试图避免走上这条道路。尽管苏林推动了经济改革以释放私营部门活力，但他也赋予了警方更大权力，将其触角扩展到商业领域和监控体系之中。

A day before Mr. Xi and Mr. Lam met, the two countries held a meeting in Beijing of senior security officials that included Gen. Luong Tam Quang, the head of Vietnam’s public security ministry; Chen Wenqing, China’s top security official and a Politburo member; Wang Xiaohong, the head of China’s domestic security agency; and Chen Yixin, China’s spy chief.

在习近平与苏林会晤前一天，两国在北京举行了一场高级安全官员会议，与会者包括越南公安部部长梁三光，中国最高安全官员、政治局委员陈文清，中国国内安全机构负责人王小洪，以及中国的情报部门负责人陈一新。

Chinese and Vietnamese state media said the two sides agreed to boost cooperation in safeguarding “political security.” No details were provided, but in China, this term has become synonymous with a massive surveillance apparatus used to root out activists, rights lawyers and dissidents, while quashing online criticism and protests against the government.

中越两国官方媒体称，双方同意加强在维护“政治安全”方面的合作。尽管未披露具体细节，但在中国，这个词已成为大规模监控体系的代名词，用于铲除活动人士、维权律师和异见人士，同时压制网络批评和针对政府的抗议活动。

The two countries also said they would work together more closely to combat transnational crime such as online gambling and online fraud.

两国还表示，将更紧密地合作打击网络赌博、网络诈骗等跨国犯罪。

Sheena Chestnut Greitens, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin who studies China’s global security initiatives, said China’s Ministry of Public Security has more cooperation agreements with Vietnam than with any other country. She said it was also especially rare for Chinese state media to acknowledge the spy chief’s participation in a security partnership with another country.

得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校研究中国全球安全倡议的政治学家陈喜娜(Sheena Chestnut Greitens)表示，中国公安部与越南签订的安全合作协议比与其他任何国家都多。她还指出，中国官方媒体公开提及情报机构负责人参与与他国的安全合作也极为罕见。

“The density and seniority of security interactions between China and Vietnam is really striking,” she said. “Nothing in U.S. efforts to build defense cooperation with Vietnam comes close to matching this combination of frequency and seniority.”

“中越之间就安全问题进行互动的密度和级别都非常惊人，”她说。“美国在与越南建立防务合作方面所做的努力，无论在频率还是级别上，都无法与之相比。”

Mr. Lam’s visit was his first foreign trip since consolidating power. Vietnam has long followed a tradition in which its top leader chooses Beijing for his first foreign trip, a gesture meant to underscore political ties and a relationship both sides often describe as “both comrades and brothers” between countries under Communist Party rule.

苏林此次访问是他巩固权力后的首次出访。越南长期遵循一项传统：其最高领导人选择北京作为首次外访的目的地，这一姿态旨在强调政治关系，并体现双方常用“同志加兄弟”来形容的、同属共产党执政国家的关系。

Vietnamese officials said the visit was meant to open a new chapter in ties with China, deepening strategic coordination at a time of intensifying competition between Beijing and Washington.

越南官员表示，此次访问旨在开启越中关系的新篇章，在北京与华盛顿竞争日益激烈之际深化战略协调。

For Hanoi, the relationship has long been defined by both necessity and unease. Vietnam’s economy is far more closely tied to China’s than the reverse, leaving Hanoi deeply exposed to its giant neighbor.

对河内而言，这一关系长期以来既是出于现实需要，也是由不安感定义的。越南经济对中国的依赖远高于中国对越南的依赖，使河内在面对这个庞大邻国时处于相对脆弱的地位。

But the two sides have also been locked in disputes over the South China Sea. Last month, Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry criticized China’s resumption of island-building in reefs in the Paracels Islands off Vietnam’s coast.

但双方在南海问题上也一直存在争端。上个月，越南外交部批评中国在越南海岸外的帕拉塞尔群岛（Paracel Islands，中国称为西沙群岛，越南称为黄沙群岛——译注）礁石上恢复填海造岛。

Under Mr. Lam’s leadership, Vietnam is expected to continue its hedging strategy, seeking stable ties with China while balancing them with relations with other major powers, including the United States, another key economic and security partner.

在苏林的领导下，预计越南将继续其对冲策略，一方面寻求与中国保持稳定关系，同时平衡好与包括美国在内的其他大国的关系。美国是越南另一个关键的经济与安全伙伴。

Mr. Lam, in his meeting with Mr. Xi, proposed that both sides should “strengthen political trust and strategic coordination at a new level,” according to an official Vietnamese summary of the talks.

根据越方官方的会谈纪要，苏林在会见习近平时提出，双方应“在新的高度上加强政治互信和战略协调”。

He also sought to signal a more self-assured Vietnamese posture toward Beijing, saying that in areas of disagreement, they should “genuinely respect each other’s legitimate rights and interests,” according to the summary.

他还试图展现越南在对华关系中的更强自信，表示在存在分歧的领域，双方应“尊重彼此的正当合法权益”。

President Trump is trying to cast his Iran war as all but over, a done-and-dusted success.

特朗普总统正试图将他发动的伊朗战争描绘成已近尾声、大局已定的局面。

But after years of trying to impose his own reality on the world, he has now run into a crisis that is not bending to his narrative.

但在多年来强行向世界灌输自己设定的现实之后，他如今遭遇了一场无法被其叙事扭曲的危机。

“It’s a new regime,” Mr. Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday, referring to Iran’s new leaders. “We find them pretty reasonable to be honest with you, by comparison pretty reasonable.”

“这是一个新政权，”特朗普周三在福克斯商业频道的采访中谈及伊朗新领导人时表示，“说实话，我们认为他们相当理性，相对而言非常理性。”

It was the latest instance of Mr. Trump’s trying to spin a “regime change” accomplishment in Iran, even though analysts believe the war may have only increased the internal sway of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the hard-line military force that has long been a major player in Iran’s politics and economy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since he replaced his father, who was killed at the start of the war, but his elevation as head of state has been another symbol of continuity.

这是特朗普最新一次试图把伊朗的“政权更迭”包装成一项政绩。尽管分析人士认为，这场战争反而强化了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的内部影响力——这支强硬派军事力量长期以来都是伊朗政治与经济的核心角色。新任最高领袖阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自接替战争初期被杀的父亲以来从未公开露面，但他就任国家元首本身就象征着政权延续性并未改变。

“Most generously you could say there is a leadership change,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank with a hawkish stance on Iran. “It is incorrect for the proponents of the conflict to frame this as a change for the better.”

“最宽容地说，这只能算是领导层更替，”华盛顿对伊强硬派智库保卫民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任贝赫纳姆·本·塔莱布鲁表示。“支持这场战争的人将其描述为向好转变，这是错误的。”

Indeed, trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal and Iran’s government is not bending to Mr. Trump’s demands on its nuclear program.

事实上，霍尔木兹海峡的贸易远未恢复正常，伊朗政府也并未屈从于特朗普对其核计划的要求。

But in Mr. Trump’s telling, U.S. victory in Iran is already clear. In the Fox Business interview, reprising his frequent comments of the last two weeks, Mr. Trump asserted that Iran’s navy, air force and antiaircraft equipment had all been wiped out, along with many top officials. If Iran did not rule out nuclear weapons, Mr. Trump said, “we will be living with them for a little while, but I don’t know how much longer they can survive.”

但按照特朗普的说法，美国在伊朗的胜利已经板上钉钉。在福克斯商业频道的采访中，他重复了近两周反复强调的论调，声称伊朗海军、空军与防空装备已被全部摧毁，多名高层官员也已毙命。特朗普表示，如果伊朗不放弃谋求核武器，“我们还会再对付他们一段时间，但我不知道他们还能撑多久。”

In fact, analysts say, the 40 days of U.S.-Israeli bombardment that ended with last week’s cease-fire appear to have increased the power of the military and hard-liners in the Iranian system. Despite the widespread destruction and the killings of officials by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, the Iranian regime is acting emboldened, having demonstrated that it can wreak havoc in global trade and send U.S. gas prices soaring.

事实上，分析人士指出，以停火告终的40天美以联合轰炸反而提升了伊朗体制内军方与强硬派的权力。尽管美以军队造成了大面积破坏并击毙多名官员，伊朗政权反而表现得更加大胆，它已证明自己能够重创全球贸易、推高美国汽油价格。

一名女子正穿过德黑兰的恩格拉布广场，头顶是伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的巨幅广告牌。

The result is that a president who has long relied on threats and bluster as essential foreign-policy tools seems to be groping for the leverage to bring Iran’s regime to heel. Analysts say that the success of the administration’s latest effort, its blockade of Iranian ports, depends on the ability of the United States and its allies to withstand the additional pressure that Iran could impose on Persian Gulf trade in response.

结果就是，这位长期将威胁与虚张声势作为核心外交工具的总统如今正摸索能迫使伊朗政权屈服的筹码。分析人士称，美国政府最新手段——对伊朗港口实施封锁——能否成功，取决于美国及其盟友能否承受伊朗为反击而对波斯湾贸易施加的额外压力。

Mona Yacoubian, a former State Department official and Middle East expert, drew a contrast in Mr. Trump’s struggle with Iran to his success in exacting concessions from U.S. allies by threatening them with tariffs.

前国务院官员、中东专家莫娜·雅各布扬将特朗普在伊朗问题上的困境与他通过关税威胁成功迫使盟友让步做了对比。

“This is not something he has control over with the stroke of a pen,” said Ms. Yacoubian, who directs the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “This is where the president’s approach of his own charismatic and powerful personality, in my view, is not a match for the complexity, the opacity, that is the case with Iran.”

“这不是他一纸命令就能掌控的事情，”现任华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任的雅各布扬表示。“在我看来，总统这种依靠个人魅力与强势风格的做法根本无法应对伊朗问题上的复杂性和不透明性。”

The administration has been eager to portray a groundbreaking deal with Iran as being possible. Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday that Mr. Trump sought a “grand bargain” in which the United States would treat Iran “economically like a normal country” if it acted “like a normal country.”

政府急于展现出与伊朗达成突破性协议的可能性。副总统万斯周二表示，特朗普寻求一份“大交易”：如果伊朗表现得“像一个正常国家”，美国将在经济上把它“当作正常国家对待”。

上周末，经过21小时的会谈后，副总统万斯在未与伊朗官员达成协议的情况下离开了巴基斯坦。

“He doesn’t want a small deal,” Mr. Vance said.

“他不想要小打小闹的协议。”万斯说。

Mr. Vance ended an extensive session of talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan last week without an agreement. He said Tuesday that the United States would keep negotiating, and that “the people we were sitting across from wanted to make a deal.”

万斯上周在巴基斯坦与伊朗官员进行长时间谈判后未达成任何协议。他周二表示，美国将继续谈判，并称“坐在我们对面的那些人希望达成协议”。

But Iran appears to have taken note of the leverage it has against Mr. Trump, given the pain of rising gas prices and Republican worries that the unpopularity of the Iran war could hurt the party in the midterm elections in November. That means that even though Iran appears ready to negotiate, its leaders could make demands of their own on matters like the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz, while still driving a hard bargain on nuclear policy, the issue that matters most to Mr. Trump.

但鉴于汽油价格上涨带来的痛苦，以及共和党人担心对伊朗战争的不受欢迎可能会损害该党在11月中期选举中的选情，伊朗似乎已经意识到了自己对特朗普握有筹码。这意味着，即便伊朗看似愿意谈判，其领导人也可能在霍尔木兹海峡未来管控等问题上提出自己的条件，同时在特朗普最看重的核问题上继续强硬讨价还价。

Nate Swanson, a former U.S. official who was on the Trump negotiating team with Iran until July, said the regime in Tehran was not going to capitulate to Mr. Trump’s demands in negotiations, “just as they did not on the battlefield.” Mr. Trump was unlikely to succeed, he said, in “trying to force transformational change on a system that feels like it just won a war.”

曾担任特朗普政府对伊谈判团队成员直至去年7月的前美国官员内特·斯旺森表示，德黑兰政权不会在谈判中屈从于特朗普的要求，“正如他们在战场上没有屈服一样”。他说，特朗普“试图强迫一个自认为刚刚赢得战争的体制发生根本性变革”，这不太可能成功。

“Iran will only make a deal they see as being in their interest,” Mr. Swanson, now at the Atlantic Council, said. “That will most likely be small and transactional.”

“伊朗只会达成他们认为符合自身利益的协议，”现任职于大西洋理事会的斯旺森说。“最终很可能只是小规模、交易性的协议。”

Mr. Swanson also cautioned against reading too much into the perceived pragmatism of individual Iranian negotiators like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker whom Mr. Trump has cast as part of a more moderate, new crop of Iranian leaders. Without a consolidated power base, all Iranian officials will need to emphasize their hard-line bona fides, he said.

斯旺森还提醒，不要过度解读伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫等个别谈判代表表面上的务实态度——特朗普曾将加利巴夫视为伊朗新一代温和派人物。斯旺森表示，由于缺乏稳固的权力基础，所有伊朗官员都必须强调自己坚守强硬立场的诚意。

“It’s not in Ghalibaf’s or anyone else’s interest to stray from the party line right now,” Mr. Swanson said.

“现在，对于加利巴夫或其他任何人来说，偏离官方路线都不符合自身利益，”斯旺森说。

China’s best-known modern writer, Lu Xun, made his name a century ago as a coruscating critic of traditional Confucian culture, foreign bullying and the grandiose pieties of Chinese despots old and new.

一个世纪前，中国最著名的现代作家鲁迅以其对传统儒家文化、外国列强欺凌以及中国历代专制统治者冠冕堂皇的道德说教的犀利批判而声名鹊起。

Today, in his hometown, Shaoxing, a prosperous city in eastern China laced with canals, the writer has transformed from a fiery anti-establishment rebel into a cuddly Communist Party mascot. His prickly character and sharp views have been smoothed as flat as the refrigerator magnets sold across town as souvenir tributes to him.

如今，在他的故乡绍兴——中国东部一座富裕的水乡城市——这位作家已从一个反体制的激烈叛逆者转变为可爱的共产党吉祥物。他原本棱角分明的性格和犀利的观点已被打磨得如同全城各处作为纪念品出售的鲁迅冰箱贴一样光滑扁平。

鲁迅原本棱角分明的性格和犀利的观点已被打磨得如同全城各处作为纪念品出售的鲁迅冰箱贴一样光滑扁平。旅游区里一幅纪念鲁迅的壁画。

Shortly before his death in 1936, Lu Xun wrote that “when the Chinese suspect someone of being a potential troublemaker, they always resort to one of two methods: they crush him, or they hoist him on a pedestal.”

1936年去世前不久，鲁迅曾写道：“中国的人们，遇见带有会使自己不安的朕兆的人物，向来就用两样法：将他压下去，或者将他捧起来。”

Hoisted atop a giant pedestal by Mao Zedong, who in 1940 declared the writer “a hero without parallel in our history,” Lu Xun (pronounced Loo SHWUN) has stood for decades at the center of China’s most expansive literary-political cult.

1940年，毛泽东称鲁迅是“空前的民族英雄”，将他捧上了神坛。几十年来，鲁迅一直屹立在中国最庞大的文学政治崇拜的中心。

Mao’s preferred version of Lu Xun as an iconoclastic enemy of stale orthodoxies, however, has been cast aside in recent years to make way for a tamer, cheerier version — one that’s more in tune with the drive by China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, to promote national pride by celebrating the “glorious achievements” of the country’s past. As such, the author has become something of a case study in the Communist Party’s efforts to repackage China’s complex history to serve its official narrative.

然而，毛泽东推崇的那个作为陈腐教条反叛者的鲁迅近年来已被搁置一旁，取而代之的是一个更温顺、更欢快的版本。这个新形象更符合中国现任领导人习近平的路线——通过歌颂国家过去的“光辉成就”来激发民族自豪感。因此，这位作家已成为中国共产党努力重新包装中国的复杂历史、为官方叙事服务的典型案例。

Under Mr. Xi, the authorities have cracked down hard on negativity, punishing bloggers and online influencers for demonstrating “excessively pessimistic sentiment” — something that Lu Xun himself often displayed.

在习近平领导下，当局严厉打击负面情绪，惩处那些“恶意挑动负面情绪”的博主和网络红人——而这种情绪恰恰是鲁迅本人经常表现出来的。

No longer portrayed by the Communist Party as an irascible rebel, the writer is now represented as a cute Disney-style cartoon character, the stone streets around his childhood home dotted with big fiberglass dolls bearing his likeness.

共产党不再将这位作家描绘成一个脾气暴躁的反叛者，而是将他塑造成可爱的迪士尼风格卡通形象，在他儿时故居周边的石板路上，点缀着许多以他为原型的巨大玻璃钢人偶。

At Lu Xun’s boyhood school in Shaoxing, which he once recalled as a place of such mind-numbing tedium that he wanted his teacher to “fall ill and — ideally — die,” he is remembered on a sign outside as a “diligent and reflective learner” who eagerly soaked up what he was told in the classroom.

在绍兴的鲁迅童年求学旧址——他曾回忆说那里枯燥得令人昏昏欲睡，甚至希望老师“生病，最好是死掉”——但如今，校外的一块牌子将他誉为“勤奋好学的学生”，渴望吸收课堂上讲授的一切。

Across the road, the facade of a Lu Xun museum has been plastered with one of Mr. Xi’s favorite slogans aimed at young people: “Inherit the Red Gene and Promote Patriotism.”

马路对面，鲁迅纪念馆的建筑立面上贴着习近平最喜欢的一句面向青年的口号：“传承红色基因，弘扬爱国主义。”

And in another possible step by officials to revise the author’s image, a big Lu Xun memorial complex in Shaoxing has been closed since the end of last year for “repairs,” as has an even larger complex in Shanghai.

此外，官方似乎还在采取其他举措重塑这位作家的形象：绍兴的一座大型鲁迅纪念综合体自去年年底以来一直因“维修”而关闭，上海的一处更大规模的建筑群也是如此。

绍兴鲁迅母校附近运河上的观光船。

Lu Xun was born Zhou Shuren in 1881 into a scholar-gentry family that had fallen on hard times. He adopted the pseudonym to publish his first major work, “Diary of a Madman,” the first modern short story written in vernacular Chinese, in 1918.

鲁迅原名周树人，1881年出生于一个没落的士绅家庭。1918年，他使用鲁迅这一笔名发表了首部重要作品《狂人日记》，这是中国第一篇用白话文创作的现代短篇小说。

The story’s protagonist, convinced that Confucian tradition encouraged cannibalism, is driven mad by the idea that he had been “living all these years in a place where for 4,000 years they have been eating human flesh.”

故事的主人公确信儒家传统鼓励吃人，并因意识到自己多年来一直生活在一个“四千年来时时吃人的地方”而发疯。

That dark reading of China’s history sits uneasily with Mr. Xi’s “China Dream,” a program of “national rejuvenation” that largely blames foreigners for the country’s past problems and exalts Chinese tradition.

这种对中国历史的阴暗解读与习近平的“中国梦”显得格格不入。后者的“民族复兴”计划在很大程度上将国家过去的问题归咎于外国人，并推崇中国传统。

Hostile to “historical nihilism” — code for any version of history that besmirches the party or China — Mr. Xi has created what Geremie Barmé, an Australian Sinologist who studied in China during the Mao era, calls an “empire of tedium,” a cheery chloroformed calm in which even grumpy troublemakers like Lu Xun are made to smile and fall into line.

习近平对“历史虚无主义”—— 即任何有损党或中国形象的历史叙述——持敌对态度，他所营造的氛围被曾在毛泽东时代留学中国的澳大利亚汉学家白杰明(Geremie Barmé)称为“沉闷帝国”——一种愉悦的、被麻醉后的平静。在这样的氛围之下，即使是像鲁迅这样脾气古怪的麻烦制造者，也要被迫面带微笑，乖乖就范。

But even before Mr. Xi came to power, Lu Xun’s mordant pessimism had drawn flak from some nationalist intellectuals who accused him of channeling colonial-era missionary stereotypes of China as backward and cruel.

但甚至在习近平上台之前，鲁迅辛辣的悲观主义就已遭到一些民族主义知识分子的抨击，他们指责他沿袭了殖民时期传教士对中国落后、残忍的刻板印象。

旅游区展出一张鲁迅与家人的珍贵合影。鲁镇的田园风光，这是一个以鲁迅笔下人物为主题的文学主题公园。

His grandson, Zhou Lingfei, dismissed this as a “serious misreading” of Lu Xun’s works. He declined to be interviewed in person, but said, in a written response to questions, that his grandfather’s “aim was to help the Chinese people stand up and rise above their circumstances, not to blindly copy the West or pander to prejudice.”

鲁迅的孙子周令飞驳斥这是对鲁迅作品的“严重误读”。他拒绝了面对面的采访，但在书面回复中表示，祖父的“目标是帮助中国人民站起来，超越他们自身的处境，而不是盲目模仿西方或迎合偏见”。

The study of Lu Xun has been part of China’s national school curriculum for decades, though the list of his mandatory texts has been periodically pruned to keep up with shifting political winds. Gone since the Chinese army’s 1989 assault on Tiananmen Square, for example, is “In Memory of Miss Liu Hezhen,” a rage-filled essay he wrote to mourn the death of a student protester shot by government troops in Beijing in 1926.

几十年来，鲁迅研究一直是中国国家学校课程的一部分，尽管为了顺应政治风向的变化，他的必读作品清单不时会被修改。例如，自1989年中国军队镇压天安门事件以来，鲁迅那篇义愤填膺的散文《纪念刘和珍君》便从课本中消失了。这篇文章是他为悼念1926年在北京被政府军枪杀的一名学生抗议者而写的。

Also omitted from study is Lu Xun’s observation to the American journalist Edgar Snow about the 1912 collapse of China’s last imperial dynasty: “Before the revolution we were slaves. And now we are the slaves of ex-slaves.”

同样被剔出教学范畴的还有鲁迅向美国记者埃德加·斯诺谈及对1912年满清王朝崩塌后的观察：“我觉得革命以前，我是做奴隶；革命以后不多久，就受了奴隶的骗，变成他们的奴隶了。”

Though hailed by Mao as the “saint of modern China” and a “true Marxist and thorough materialist,” Lu Xun never joined the Communist Party or considered himself a Marxist. He was tormented during the last, illness-plagued period of his life by overbearing party commissars who hijacked a group of left-wing writers that he nominally led, pressuring him to abandon his individualistic ways and embrace “proletarian literature.”

尽管鲁迅被毛泽东赞誉为“现代中国的圣人”，称他“是真正的马克思主义者，是彻底的唯物主义者”，但鲁迅从未加入共产党，也不认为自己是马克思主义者。在生命的最后阶段，他深受疾病困扰，受到权力过大的党内文官的排挤。这些人接管了他名义上领导的一群左翼作家，向他施压，要求他放弃个人主义风格，拥护“无产阶级文学”。

作家雕像旁的一块石碑上镌刻着“民族魂”。几十年来，鲁迅的研究一直是中国国家学校课程的一部分，尽管其必读作品清单会随着政治风向的变化而定期进行调整。

Opposed to Chiang Kai-shek, China’s Nationalist leader from 1928 until 1949, Lu Xun did mentor many young, Communist-inclined writers in the 1920s and ’30s. But his closest disciples, who included the poet and literary theorist Hu Feng, suffered terrible persecution after Mao took power in 1949.

虽然鲁迅反对1928年至1949年间的中国国民党领袖蒋介石，在20世纪二三十年代提携了许多倾向共产主义的年轻作家，但他最亲近的弟子们在1949年毛泽东掌权后却遭受了惨烈的迫害，包括诗人、文艺理论家胡风。

Most foreign scholars and many liberal-minded Chinese believe that Lu Xun would have faced the same fate had he lived long enough to see Communist Party rule. He most likely would have fled China, possibly for Japan, where he had studied medicine as a young man and had many close friends, Mr. Barmé said.

大多数外国学者和许多思想开明的中国人都相信，如果鲁迅活得足够久，能亲眼看到共产党的统治，他也会面临同样的命运。白杰明认为，他很可能会逃离中国，或许前往日本——他年轻时曾在那里学医，并有许多挚友。

In a book published in 2001, a time of relative openness, Lu Xun’s since-deceased son, Zhou Haiying, reported that even Mao had once acknowledged that the writer “would either have gone silent or gone to jail” if he had been alive after the 1949 Communist victory. The book attributed Mao’s remark to a Chinese official and translator who said he had heard it at a private meeting between the Chinese leader and Shanghai intellectuals in 1957.

在2001年（一个相对开放的时期）出版的一本书中，鲁迅已故的儿子周海婴曾披露，毛泽东本人也承认，如果鲁迅在1949年后还活着，“要么是关在牢里还要写，要么他识大体不做声”。书中称毛泽东的这段话是由一位中国官员兼翻译披露，该官员称这是他在1957年毛泽东与上海知识分子的私人会面中亲耳所闻。

Party historians insisted in 2018 that Mao never said any such thing, citing the “untrue rumor” as an example of why China must commit to a “long and arduous struggle against historical nihilism.”

2018年，党史学家坚称毛泽东从未说过这样的话，并引用这个“以讹传讹”作为中国必须致力于“反对历史虚无主义的持久战”的例子。

这位天生爱唱反调的作家已从共产主义革命的烈焰象征蜕变为惹人喜爱的吉祥物。鲁镇的一家礼品店，游客可以在这里购买以鲁迅为主题的冰淇淋、面条和开衫等商品。

On the edge of a lake in Shaoxing, a literary theme park called Lu Town has recreated the settings of Lu Xun’s best-known stories. A stone inscription next to a statue of the writer at the entrance celebrates him as “the soul of China.” Stalls hawk Lu Xun-themed ice cream, noodles, cardigans and knickknacks.

在绍兴的一个湖边，一个名为“鲁镇”的文学主题公园再现了鲁迅最知名故事中的场景。入口处鲁迅雕像旁的一段石刻赞美他是“民族魂”。摊位上兜售着以鲁迅为主题的冰淇淋、面条、开衫和各式小玩意。

Lu Xun’s grandson, Mr. Zhou, said he welcomed the park’s “initial intention” — getting young people to engage with a long-dead author whose idiosyncratic prose, a mix of classical and modern Chinese, is often hard to understand — but “firmly opposes excessive commercialization and cheap entertainment.”

鲁迅的孙子周令飞表示，他赞同该园区的“初衷”——引导年轻人接触这位早已故去的作家，其半文半白的独特文风往往晦涩难懂——但他“坚决反对过度商业化和低俗娱乐”。

“The True Story of Ah-Q,” a biting satire that ends with the execution of its main character, is played for laughs in a small theater in Lu Town that stages five short shows a day.

《阿Q正传》是一部尖锐的讽刺小说，以主人公被处决告终，但在鲁镇的一家小剧院里，这部作品却被演绎成了闹剧，每天上演五场。

旅游区一家商店里，作家身着其标志性毛衣的剪影。

A character created by Lu Xun in 1921 as a craven Chinese Everyman, the original Ah-Q cuts a pathetic figure, groveling to the authorities while bullying the powerless.

鲁迅在1921年创作的这个人物是一个懦弱的中国普通人形象；原作中的阿Q是一个可悲的角色，一面对权贵摇尾乞怜，一面欺凌弱者。

The Shaoxing theme park has turned this bleak story into slapstick comedy. During one recent show, the postal worker-turned-actor who plays Ah-Q hammed it up onstage and, afterward, posed for selfies with Chinese tourists. Lu Xun, the actor said, “was writing about a very different time” when China was still poor and weak, and needed to be reminded that the flaws of people like Ah-Q were to blame.

绍兴的主题公园将这个凄凉的故事改成了滑稽喜剧。在最近的一场演出中，扮演阿Q的是一名邮递员转行的演员，他在台上卖力表演，在演出结束后与中国游客合影。这位演员说，鲁迅“写的是一个非常不同的时代”，那时中国还贫穷落后，需要被提醒，阿Q这类人的缺陷是导致贫弱的原因。

Today, he added, those shameful times have passed and “Ah-Q is dead.”

他补充道，现如今，那些可耻的时代已经过去，“阿Q已经死了”。