Hundreds of tankers are waiting to return to the Strait of Hormuz so that the waterway can once again become a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas.

数百艘油轮正等待返回霍尔木兹海峡，以便这条水道能够再次成为全球五分之一石油和天然气的运输通道。

But the shaky cease-fire struck between the United States and Iran has not coaxed the tankers back — and even if it holds, other obstacles have to be overcome for shipping traffic to return to normal.

但美国和伊朗之间达成的脆弱停火协议并没有说服油轮返航——即使停火能够维持，要让航运交通恢复正常仍有其他障碍需要克服。

Iran has kept a stranglehold on the strait throughout the war by laying mines and attacking vessels. As part of the cease-fire, Iran’s foreign minister said, the country will allow “safe passage” for ships through the strait, but he added that the vessels would have to coordinate with Iran’s armed forces and that passages would be subject to “technical limitations.”

在整个战争期间，伊朗通过布设水雷和袭击船只对霍尔木兹海峡保持着严密控制。作为停火协议的一部分，伊朗外长表示，该国将允许船只“安全通行”，但他补充说，船只必须与伊朗武装部队协调，而且通行将受到“技术限制”。

What is the situation in the strait now?

海峡目前的状况如何？

Only four vessels traveled through the strait on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, down from an average of nine a day over the previous five days. And shipping analysts said there were no signs of large-scale positioning or queuing to go through the strait.

根据标普全球市场财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据，周三只有四艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，而此前五天的日均通过量为九艘。航运分析师表示，目前没有出现大规模船只集结或排队等待通过海峡的迹象。

The fragility of the cease-fire — Iran said on Wednesday that Israel’s attacks on targets in Lebanon had violated the agreement — was the main reason ships were holding back, shipping industry participants said.

航运业人士表示，停火协议的脆弱性是船只犹豫不前的首要原因——伊朗周三称，以色列对黎巴嫩目标的袭击违反了协议。

“It’s too unstable for anyone to commit,” said Oscar Seikaly, chief executive of NSI Insurance Group, a maritime insurance brokerage.

“局势太不稳定，谁都不敢做出承诺，”海事保险经纪公司NSI保险集团的首席执行官奥斯卡·塞卡利说。

What has to happen first for ships to go back?

要让船只返回，首先需要实现什么？

First, shipping analysts say, there has to be confidence that the cease-fire will hold. And then there has to be a declaration from Iran that it will not attack vessels.

航运分析师认为，首先必须建立对停火协议能够维持的信心。其次，伊朗必须明确宣布不会袭击船只。

“Iran must clarify that the strait is open for safe passage. Otherwise, vessels should not be expected to sail through the way they were doing prior to the war,” said Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“伊朗必须明确表示海峡对安全通行开放。否则，不能指望船只像战前那样通过海峡，”华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员诺姆·雷丹说。

But Iran is also demanding that it oversee and coordinate passages through the strait. The government hasn’t clearly stated what vessel operators must do to gain permission to pass through. Some shipowners have made “toll” payments to Iran. And, according to Kpler, a shipping tracking firm, most of the crossings during the war have taken a route that goes close to Iran’s coast. This suggests that Iran requires taking this route.

但伊朗同时要求对通过海峡的船只进行监督和协调。伊朗政府尚未明确说明船只运营商需要做什么才能获得通行许可。有些船东已经向伊朗支付了“通行费”。根据航运追踪公司Kpler的数据，战争期间大多数穿越都采取了靠近伊朗海岸的路线。这表明伊朗要求船只走这条路线。

Iran’s official broadcaster said on Wednesday that, because of anti-ship mines in the traffic zones, vessels must coordinate with the Iranian Navy and use designated routes to cross the waterway.

伊朗官方广播电台周三表示，由于交通区域存在反舰水雷，船只必须与伊朗海军协调，并使用指定路线穿越该水道。

Do governments have to get involved?

各国政府是否必须介入？

The governments of India, Pakistan and Thailand have worked with Iran to ensure safe passage of vessels.

印度、巴基斯坦和泰国的政府已与伊朗合作，以确保船只安全通行。

In a joint statement on Wednesday, the leaders of seven European nations, Canada, the European Commission and the European Council said their governments “will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation” in the strait.

七个欧洲国家、加拿大、欧盟委员会和欧盟理事会的领导人周三在一份联合声明中表示，他们的政府“将致力于确保海峡的航行自由”。

President Trump suggested on Wednesday that the United States might jointly control the strait with Iran.

特朗普总统周三暗示，美国可能与伊朗共同控制霍尔木兹海峡。

“The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post. “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made.”

“美利坚合众国将帮助解决霍尔木兹海峡的交通积压问题，”特朗普在社交媒体帖子中写道。“将会采取大量积极行动！将会赚到很多钱。”

ABC News reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump had told one of its reporters that the United States could operate shipping in the strait “as a joint venture” with Iran.

ABC新闻周三报道称，特朗普告诉该报记者，美国可以在海峡“以合资方式”运营航运业务。

Will shipping return if Iran doesn’t give up full control?

如果伊朗不放弃完全控制权，航运会恢复吗？

Analysts say Iran can continue to act as a gatekeeper if the number of vessels going through the strait remains relatively small. But it would not be able to manage the more than 100 ships a day that passed through the strait before the war.

分析师表示，如果通过海峡的船只数量保持在相对较少的水平，伊朗可以继续充当“看门人”。但它将无法管理战前每天超过100艘船只的流量。

“Blanket passage arrangements are unlikely to be implementable by Iran, due to capacity constraints around vessel identification and ongoing requirements to guide vessels through the corridor,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an email.

“由于船舶识别和持续引导船只通过走廊的能力有限，伊朗不太可能实施全面的通行安排，”标普全球市场情报公司中东和北非国家风险主管杰克·肯尼迪在一封电子邮件中表示。

Also, the threat of war will linger if Iran keeps throttling the strait. The Persian Gulf states do not want Iran to have such power over the waterway. Oman, the country on the other side of the strait, could invite ships to pass close to its coastline, but such a move might prompt Iran to attack the vessels.

此外，如果伊朗继续对海峡实施限制，战争威胁将持续存在。波斯湾国家不希望伊朗对这条水道拥有如此大的控制权。位于海峡另一侧的阿曼可能会邀请船只靠近其海岸线通行，但此举可能促使伊朗袭击这些船只。

Will shipping companies pay a toll to Iran?

航运公司会向伊朗支付通行费吗？

Given that more than 100 large commercial ships have gone through the strait since the war began, some vessel operators are willing to negotiate with Iran and even pay millions of dollars for a passage. Shipping companies are losing money on vessels that are waiting to go through the strait, so they may be willing to pay large sums to get their ships out into the Indian Ocean and operating normally.

鉴于战争爆发以来已有超过100艘大型商船通过海峡，一些船只运营商愿意与伊朗谈判，甚至愿意支付数百万美元以获得通行权。航运公司因船只滞留而正在亏损，因此它们可能愿意支付大笔费用，让船只进入印度洋并恢复正常运营。

Still, the larger, more established shipping companies may decide that doing business with Iran is too much of a legal risk, particularly if the United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran.

不过，更大型、更成熟的航运公司可能会认为，与伊朗做生意存在太大的法律风险，尤其是如果美国继续对伊朗实施制裁的话。

“The issue of sanctions on Iran makes it a very complicated process, since it involves financial transactions with a sanctioned regime,” Ms. Raydan said.

“对伊朗的制裁问题使这一过程变得非常复杂，因为它涉及与受制裁政权的金融交易，”雷丹说。

How hard is it to get insurance?

获取保险有多难？

When the fighting began, the cost of “war risk” insurance for ships and cargo going through the strait skyrocketed. A few shipping companies bought it, and it has been available at times during the war, Mr. Seikaly, the insurance executive, said. But the fragility of the cease-fire has driven down demand for insurance.

战斗开始时，针对通过海峡的船舶和货物的“战争风险”保险费用急剧飙升。保险业高管塞卡利表示，有少数航运公司购买了这种保险，在战争期间有时也能买到。但停火协议的脆弱性已导致保险需求下降。

“It is not the right moment, and everyone knows that,” he said.

“现在还不是时候，这一点大家都知道，”他说。

In 1910, a British journalist published “The Great Illusion,” one of the worst-timed best sellers in history.

1910年，一位英国记者出版了《大幻觉》(The Great Illusion)一书，这本书堪称史上“最不合时宜的畅销书”之一。

The author, Norman Angell, argued that the growing interconnection of the world economy meant that no one could ever truly win a world war. Even if Germany were to invade Britain and take all the gold held in the Bank of England, the integration of Europe’s banking systems guaranteed a financial crisis that would leave the Germans worse off than if they’d just stayed home.

作者诺曼·安吉尔认为，世界经济日益紧密的互联意味着没有人能真正赢得一场世界大战。即使德国入侵英国并夺走英格兰银行的所有黄金，欧洲银行体系的高度一体化也会引发金融危机，使德国的处境比按兵不动还要更糟。

This fact did not make war impossible, Mr. Angell wrote. But it made conflict much more costly and destructive for everyone. Four years later, World War I began. In the hyper-connected world of 1914, the war’s shocks reverberated far beyond the battlefields, leaving enduring political and economic instability in their wake.

安格尔写道，这一事实并不意味着战争不可能发生，而是令冲突对每个人的代价和破坏性都大大增加。四年后，第一次世界大战爆发。在1914年这个高度互联的世界里，战争的冲击远远超出战场范围，在其后留下了持久的政治和经济不稳定。

Now that the United States and Iran have declared a two-week cease-fire, the question is whether the war’s economic disruption will be short-lived or lasting. The lessons from history are sobering: In an interdependent global economy, the shock of the outbreak of war can produce long-term instabilities overnight, many of which become apparent only over time.

如今，在美国与伊朗宣布为期两周的停火后，一个关键问题是：战争带来的经济冲击究竟是短暂的，还是长期存在的。历史的教训令人警醒：在一个相互依赖的全球经济体系中，战争爆发所带来的冲击可能在一夜之间引发长期的不稳定，而其中许多影响往往需要假以时日才会显现出来。

When the United States attacked Iran, it should have come as no surprise that Iran would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Yet few could have foreseen the exact downstream effects: not just the worst disruption to oil supplies in history, but also shortages of materials that not many people realized they relied on — urea and ammonia used to grow the world’s staple food crops, helium for making computer chips and naphtha, a petroleum product crucial for the manufacture of many household plastic items, including garbage bags and water bottles.

当美国对伊朗发动攻击时，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡本不令人意外。然而，几乎没有人能够预见其具体的连锁反应：不仅出现了史上最严重的石油供应中断，还有一些原料的短缺也出现了，而很多人并没有意识到自己离不开它们——例如用于种植全球主要粮食作物的尿素和氨、用于制造芯片的氦气，以及石脑油——制造垃圾袋和矿泉水瓶等日常塑料制品所必需的石油产品）。

The history of World War I shows us how long destabilization can last. In 1914, before war was officially declared, it quickly became clear that a major conflict would have unintended economic consequences. While the assassination of the Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, did not cause markets to collapse, the ultimatum Austria-Hungary presented to Serbia about a month later — interpreted as making war inevitable — prompted a chaotic flight to financial safety around the world.

第一次世界大战的历史表明，动荡可能持续很长时间。1914年，在战争尚未正式爆发之前，人们很快就意识到，一场重大冲突将带来意想不到的经济后果。虽然奥地利大公弗朗茨·斐迪南及其妻子索菲遇刺并未导致市场崩溃，但大约一个月后，奥匈帝国向塞尔维亚发出的最后通牒——被普遍解读为战争不可避免——引发了全球范围内一场混乱的金融避险潮。

Investors and depositors dumped risky assets and raced to get gold. Bank runs broke out widely, and nearly every stock exchange closed — from London to Johannesburg, Shanghai and Sydney. Banks in London, the financial center of the world, nearly collapsed. Traders everywhere lost access to the credit they needed to do business.

投资者和储户纷纷抛售高风险资产，争相兑换黄金。银行挤兑现象大范围爆发，几乎所有证券交易所——从伦敦到约翰内斯堡、上海和悉尼——都关闭了。世界金融中心伦敦的银行体系几近崩溃。各地的交易商都失去了开展业务所需的信贷渠道。

Then global shipping seized up. In the face of a conflict of uncertain scale and duration, the cost of marine insurance fluctuated significantly. Vessels and cargoes sat idle; ports around the world grew congested. Meanwhile, the blockades and German invasions of Belgium and France prevented continental Europe’s largest markets from absorbing more than a small fraction of the normal quantity of imports.

随后，全球航运陷入瘫痪。面对一场规模和持续时间都不确定的冲突，海上保险费用大幅波动。船只和货物滞留，全球各地的港口日益拥堵。与此同时，海上封锁以及德国对比利时和法国的入侵使得欧洲大陆最大的市场只能吸收正常进口量的极小一部分。

Before any trenches even appeared on the Western Front, world trade was thus hit by a crippling triple whammy: the disappearance of credit, ships and markets. The effects were immediate, worldwide and severe: unemployment, spiking inflation and mass unrest. By 1915, global commerce, at least among the allied countries and neutral countries, seemed to be recovering. Ships began to sail again, trade was redirected along different routes and to new markets, and the war unleashed incredible demand for goods, such as nitrates from Chile and jute from India.

因此，在西线战场尚未有战壕出现之前，世界贸易就遭受了致命的三重打击：信贷消失、船运中断和市场萎缩。其影响立刻显现，它波及全球且极为严重：失业、通胀飙升和大规模动荡。到1915年，全球商业——至少在协约国和中立国之间——似乎开始复苏。船只重新起航，贸易改道至不同的航线和新的市场，战争还释放出对某些商品的惊人需求，例如来自智利的硝酸盐和来自印度的黄麻。

But lasting damage had already been done.

但持久性的损害已经造成。

The British government, acting alongside the Bank of England, saved Britain’s leading banks from insolvency in August 1914. But the panic that broke out that summer weakened Britain’s banking sector, which allowed Wall Street to replace it as the world’s financial center. Almost overnight, the global balance of financial power shifted sharply.

1914年8月，英国政府与英格兰银行联手，挽救了英国主要银行免于破产。但当年夏天爆发的恐慌削弱了英国的银行体系，使得华尔街得以取而代之成为世界金融中心。全球金融力量的格局几乎在一夜之间发生了剧烈转变。

Then, the shortage of ships, combined with rising insurance premiums and freight rates, increased the price of goods around the world, particularly for food and other necessities. As the war continued, these pressures worsened; by 1918 and 1919, they had reached unprecedented heights. In the United States, the price of bread doubled between 1913 and 1920.

与此同时，船舶短缺、海运保险费及运费上涨推高了全球商品价格，尤其是食品和其他必需品。随着战争持续，这些压力进一步加剧；到1918年和1919年，这种上涨已达到前所未有的水平。在美国，面包价格在1913年至1920年间翻了一番。

Finally, the combined losses of credit, shipping and markets caused the total volume of world trade to plummet. It took years to recover to prewar levels. The economic historian David Jacks has estimated that, over the first two years of the war, world exports fell by nearly 25 percent in real terms — more than after the financial crisis of 2008.

最后，信贷、航运和市场的同时崩塌使全球贸易总量大幅下滑，恢复到战前水平耗费了多年时间。经济史学家戴维·贾克斯估计，在战争最初两年里，全球出口的实际价值下降了近25%——比2008年金融危机后的降幅还要大。

Even the European victors of the war lost ground. After the war, Europe’s share of world trade had fallen. In the war’s opening days, supply chains and trading networks were rerouted away from Europe, which benefited two rising powers: the United States and Japan. European trade never fully recovered.

即便是欧洲的战胜国也未能幸免。战后，欧洲在全球贸易中的份额下降。在战争初期，供应链和贸易网络就已开始绕开欧洲，这让两个正在崛起的国家受益：美国和日本。欧洲的贸易此后再未完全恢复。

Of course, the Iran war has been nowhere near the scale or duration of World War I. Yet even if this shaky cease-fire holds, there are reasons to believe that its shocks will be felt long after.

当然，伊朗战争的规模和持续时间都远不能与第一次世界大战相提并论。然而，即便这一脆弱的停火能够维持，我们也有理由相信，其冲击将在很长时间内持续显现。

First, energy prices are unlikely to fall immediately to prewar levels. Snarled supply chains will take months to untangle, and damaged production facilities in the Persian Gulf will take even longer to repair. Shipping won’t all come back online at once, either — particularly since Iran has discovered that it need only threaten a few tankers with cheap drones to have a major effect on global trade. If Iran now charges fees to ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, and threatens to sink those that don’t pay, freight rates and insurance premiums will remain elevated.

首先，能源价格不太可能立即回落到战前水平。受阻的供应链需要数月时间才能理清，波斯湾受损的生产设施则需要更长时间来修复。航运也不会在短时间内全部恢复——尤其是考虑到伊朗已经发现，它只需用廉价无人机威胁几艘油轮就能对全球贸易产生重大影响。如果伊朗现在向通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收费，并威胁击沉不付费的船只，运费和保险费将继续居高不下。

Now, there are fertilizer shortages at the beginning of the spring planting season for foods including rice, which means that we may eventually see reduced crop yields and higher prices. As the experience of the Covid pandemic made clear, supply chain disruptions like these can produce inflationary surges with long tails, which, before they abate, can have damaging secondary effects, from higher mortgage rates to fiscal crises to political unrest.

眼下，随着水稻等粮食作物的春播季节开始，化肥短缺意味着未来可能出现减产和价格上涨。正如新冠疫情期间的经验所表明，这类供应链中断可能引发持续很长时间的通胀飙升，而在其消退之前，还可能带来一系列有害的次生影响——从抵押贷款利率上升到财政危机，再到政治动荡。

It’s impossible to know for sure how the dust will settle. Yet, as was true with the other supply shocks of the 2020s, low- and middle-income countries will most likely bear the brunt. While rising costs of food and energy can bring economic hardship and political turmoil to wealthy countries like the United States, they can, quite literally, be a matter of life and death elsewhere. Some countries in the Horn of Africa that are already facing severe food insecurity depend on imported fertilizers that ordinarily pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

尘埃将如何落定，我们无法确切知晓。然而，正如2020年代的其他供应冲击一样，中低收入国家最有可能首当其冲。虽然食品和能源价格上涨会给美国这样的富裕国家带来经济压力和政治动荡，但在其他地方，它们实际上可能是生死攸关的问题。非洲之角一些本已面临严重粮食不安全的国家依赖通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的进口化肥。

If these are the consequences of just a month of war, imagine the effects of a larger and more protracted conflict — one whose likelihood, some believe, is greater now than at any other moment in recent history.

如果仅仅一个月的战争就能造成这样的后果，那么可以想象，一场规模更大、持续更久的冲突会带来怎样的影响——而在一些人看来，这种冲突发生的可能性如今比近年任何时候都要高。

Looking out over a devastated Europe in 1919, the French prime minister, Georges Clemenceau, said that it was “far easier to make war than to make peace.” The same is true when it comes to the world economy: It’s much easier to spark a global panic than to deal with its long-term fallout.

1919年，法国总理乔治·克列孟梭在俯瞰满目疮痍的欧洲时曾说：“发动战争远比缔造和平容易。”对于全球经济而言也是如此：引发全球恐慌远比应对其长期后果容易得多。

A dozen barges, heavy with just-harvested rice, cut their engines and floated to a halt. Two huge rice mills upriver stopped de-husking and bagging as electricity prices peaked.

十几艘满载新收稻谷的驳船熄了引擎，顺水漂着停下来。上游两家大型碾米厂因电价飙至峰值，停止了稻谷脱壳与装袋的作业。

It was midmorning in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta — one of the most productive agricultural areas on Earth, in a nation that is the world’s second-largest exporter of rice.

此时是越南湄公河三角洲的上午时分。这里是全球最富饶的的农业区之一，越南是全球第二大稻米出口国。

Only birds and a stray motorbike could be heard.

四下里只听得见鸟鸣，偶尔传来摩托车驶过的声响。

And in the quiet, anxieties unfurled.

在这片寂静里，焦虑正悄然蔓延。

载着新收割稻谷的船只排成一列，准备驶入同塔省的一家加工中心。

Boat captains talked about diesel prices doubling, surging higher and for longer than they did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Workers on the water and near forklifts worried about having to find new jobs. The scarcity of fuel and fertilizer from the Middle East was already seizing up a food producing giant, and no matter how the war in Iran goes, the next planting looked shaky too.

船长们聊着翻了倍的柴油价格，这一轮的涨幅之高、持续时间之长已经超过了2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后的水平。水上作业的工人和叉车的装卸工都在担心要另谋出路。来自中东的燃油和化肥供应短缺已经让这个粮食生产大国陷入停摆；无论伊朗战事走向如何，下一季的播种都已前景堪忧。

“If I grow new crops, I’m just pouring money into the ground,” said Vo Minh Tam, a rice farmer who owns a farm supply store where he’s stopped stocking fertilizer because so many neighbors have paused plans for the May growing season. “I’d rather leave it abandoned.”

“要是种下新一季作物，我就是往地里白砸钱，”稻农武明谭（音）说。他自己开了一家农资店，如今已经停止进货化肥，因为太多邻居都搁置了5月种植季的计划。“我宁愿让地荒着。”

Vietnam’s stalled land of plenty shows how the war — even with the two-week cease-fire announced on Tuesday — has caused an immediate shock to the global food supply that’s sparking a chain reaction of long-term disruption. Until the massive backlog of fuel tankers pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz that Iran has now promised to stop blocking, and until long-term peace looks probable, pain for farmers will continue, along with the risk of under-fertilized crops, lesser yields and higher grocery prices worldwide.

越南这片陷入停滞的鱼米之乡表明，这场战争已对全球粮食供应造成直接冲击，并引发了带来长期扰动的连锁反应，即便周二宣布了为期两周的停火。在大量滞留的油轮顺利通过伊朗现承诺不再封锁的狭窄霍尔木兹海峡之前，在长期和平的前景明朗之前，农民的困境还将持续，同时全球也将面临作物施肥不足、减产、食品价格上涨的风险。

Asia is especially reliant on the Middle East for oil and fertilizer. The Mekong Delta and its 19 million residents are not easily disturbed or defeated, but even before the war, climate change was pushing saltwater into fields, twisting arms and budgets. The gut punch of an oil shock has added to frustration with an energy source that already felt like tainted treasure — black gold once just valuable, now looks cursed.

亚洲尤为依赖中东的石油和化肥。湄公河三角洲及其1900万居民向来坚韧不拔、不易被击垮，但在这场战争之前，气候变化导致的海水倒灌侵田就已经让农户的生计与收支捉襟见肘。而这场石油危机带来的沉重打击更让人们对这种能源心生怨怼——这种宝贵的黑色黄金如今仿佛成了祸根。

在同塔省收割水稻。农民们对灌溉费用和化肥价格上涨感到担忧。

The war spurred fuel rationing within a week. Vietnam lacks ample reserves, so resource allocation has been zero-sum. One sector ends up pitted against another, creating a dilemma for this one-party Communist state.

战事爆发不到一周，越南就启动了燃料配给制。越南没有充足的能源储备，因此资源分配彻底变成了零和博弈：不同行业之间陷入对立，给这个一党制共产主义国家带来了两难困境。

Who wins in a fight for scarce resources? City-dwellers, manufacturers or the Mekong Delta, a pump-irrigated plain that exports eight million tons of rice, four million tons of fruit and nearly two million tons of seafood every year?

在这场稀缺资源的争夺中，谁会是赢家？是城市居民、制造业，还是湄公河三角洲？这片靠水泵灌溉的平原每年要出口800万吨大米、400万吨水果，以及近200万吨海鲜。

The Mekong Delta sprawls across Vietnam’s southern tip, covering an area larger than the Mississippi Delta. Complex irrigation networks run like capillaries through lands where shrimp are farmed, poultry is raised, and citrus, durian and rice grow side by side. Everything, including water and fertilizer, has been costlier to move since the start of the war, and no one knows whether the nations negotiating for peace can be trusted to create stability.

湄公河三角洲横跨越南最南端，面积比密西西比河三角洲还要广阔。错综复杂的灌溉网络如同毛细血管般遍布这片土地，这里有虾塘和禽舍，柑橘、榴莲与水稻连片种植。战事爆发以来，包括水和化肥在内的所有物资，运输成本都大幅上涨；而没人知道那些正在和谈的国家能否真正带来稳定。

“These leaders, I think maybe they’re crazy,” said Nguyen Thanh Tam, 71, a rice farmer with deep family roots in the Mekong. “I wish we could go back to the old days,” he added, “when our weather and lives were more stable.”

“这些领导人，我看他们怕是疯了。”71岁的稻农阮清谭（音）说，他的家族世世代代扎根在湄公河三角洲。“我多希望回到过去的日子，”他还说。“那时候天气安稳，日子也安稳。”

Mr. Tam, a soft-spoken man with deep wrinkles from a life in the sun, had started the harvest a few weeks ago feeling good. He expected to earn enough for a new Honda scooter costing about $800 — the first of his life. Now, even after hearing about the cease-fire, he’s sticking with his silver bicycle.

阮清谭说话轻声细语，饱受风吹日晒的脸上刻满深深的皱纹。几周前开始收割时，他还满心欢喜，本以为赚的钱够买一辆约800美元的本田踏板车——这将是他这辈子第一辆摩托车。可如今，他还是只能骑着自己那辆旧的银色自行车，即便已经听到了停火的消息。

“I remain very worried,” he said on Wednesday, soon after the cease-fire was announced.

“我还是满心担忧，”他在周三停火协议宣布后不久说。

71岁的稻农阮清潭表示，他希望世界能回归到更加稳定的时期。一名妇女正在湄公河三角洲收割水稻，这里是世界上最富饶的农业区之一。

Mr. Tam said he fears that prices will stay high, especially for fertilizer. A third of the world’s supply comes from the Middle East and global prices for urea, a common fertilizer for rice, are up more than 70 percent since January.

阮清谭说，他担心物价会一直居高不下，尤其是化肥。全球三分之一的化肥供应来自中东，自1月以来，水稻种植常用的尿素的全球价格已经上涨了70%以上。

The farm supply store owned by Mr. Minh Tam is usually crammed full of the stuff. He’s got room for 100 tons. In late March, he had only four. Empty pallets gathered dust on his concrete floor near a pink rice cooker with a mouse’s face.

武明谭的农资店里总是堆满了化肥。他的仓库容量是100吨，可3月底的时候，库存只剩四吨。水泥地面上，空托盘积满了灰尘，旁边放着一个印着老鼠头像的粉色电饭煲。

“I’d be certain to lose money if I stockpile fertilizer now,” he said. “Farmers are all complaining about how expensive it is.”

“我现在要是囤化肥，铁定要亏本，”他说。“农户们都抱怨化肥太贵了。”

Inactivity is an aberration in Vietnam. Fifty years after a brutal war followed by grinding famine, the country moves with more throttle than brake. When the Covid pandemic hit, farmers bought drones for seeding to reduce clustering by seasonal workers.

在越南，停滞不前实属罕见。经历了残酷的战争和随之而来的严重饥荒，50年后，这个国家就像是踩下了油门，而不是刹车。新冠疫情来袭时，农户们购入无人机播种，减少季节性务工人员的聚集。

But studies of agricultural economics have shown that uncertainty freezes enterprise. Not even the Mekong is immune.

但农业经济学的研究早已表明，不确定性会让经营活动陷入停滞。即便是湄公河三角洲也不例外。

Around 90 percent of the rice Vietnam ships — mostly to the Philippines, but also to Africa and the United States — comes from the Mekong. Normally.

越南出口的大米中，约90%都产自湄公河三角洲，这些大米主要销往菲律宾，也出口至非洲和美国。

In today’s abnormal times, buyers are hesitating. Shipping delays of 10 to 15 days have become common as carriers slow steam to conserve fuel. Basmati rice from India bound for the Middle East has been unable to get through the Strait of Hormuz. In the Philippines, wholesalers are not sure when there might be enough diesel to move imports around the country.

可在如今这个反常的时期，买家们都开始犹豫。为了节省燃油，航运公司纷纷减速航行，10到15天的船期延误已成常态。印度运往中东的巴斯马蒂大米根本无法通过霍尔木兹海峡。在菲律宾，批发商不确定什么时候能有足够的柴油把进口大米运往全国各地。

That means rice has been piling up across Asia, creating a short-term paradox: wholesale prices declining as production costs rise. After a year of healthy harvests, traders are paying farmers less right now to hedge against future risk.

这意味着大米正在全亚洲各地积压，形成了一个短期悖论：生产成本节节攀升，批发价却持续下跌。在经历了一整年的丰收后，贸易商为了对冲未来风险，如今给农户的收购价反而更低。

一名工人在市场附近的仓库里休息，这个市场平时总是熙熙攘攘。一台大米加工机在两个运行周期之间停机，以节约能源。

If that tamps down inflation, it may not be for long, according to food economy experts, who expect sharper price hikes for crops like vegetables that are harder to stockpile.

粮食经济专家表示，即便这种情况暂时抑制了通胀，也不会持续太久。他们预计，蔬菜等难以储存的作物后续将迎来更剧烈的价格上涨。

“Complex systems have a habit of creating wicked problems,” said Paul Teng Piang Siong, a senior fellow in food security at Singapore’s ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute.

“复杂系统总会滋生出棘手的难题，”新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院粮食安全高级研究员邓烦祥说。

Even if a lasting peace emerges, he added, the consequences of America’s latest military adventure will likely linger for agriculture. In Vietnam, where the soil still holds unexploded American bombs from more than 50 years ago, anger has been firing in many directions.

他还说，即便最终实现了持久和平，美国这场最新的军事冒险对农业造成的影响也很可能长期持续。在越南的土地里，至今还埋着50多年前美军投下的未爆炸弹，如今，民众的不满正向四面八方蔓延。

Nguyen Thanh Can sells diesel at a floating gas station on a major waterway. His tanks can hold around 100,000 liters (about 26,400 gallons) but since the war started, his distributor will only give him a few thousand at a time. When he ran out on a recent weekend, barge captains were furious.

阮清根（音）在一条主航道上经营着一家水上加油站。他的油罐能装约10万升柴油，可战事爆发以来，分销商每次只肯给他几千升。前阵子的一个周末，他的油卖光了，驳船船长们怒不可遏。

“They accused me of holding onto fuel, waiting for prices to go up,” he said. “I had to show them the tanks.”

“他们指责我囤油等着涨价，”他说，“我只能把油罐打开给他们看。”

He swung open a hatch, revealing mostly empty space.

他一把掀开油罐盖子，里面几乎空空如也。

3月下旬收割结束后，工人们搬运着成捆的稻草。一些农民已暂停了原定于5月播种季的计划。47岁的阮清根是湄公河上一座浮动加油站的老板，他向需要给船只加油的顾客出售柴油。

“I’m selling everything I have,” he said. “It’s not just about high prices. I don’t have enough.”

“有多少我就卖多少，”他说，“问题不只是价格高，是我根本就没油可卖。”

On the first day of the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, President Trump laid out his war goals in an eight-minute video.

美以对伊朗发动空袭首日，特朗普总统在一段八分钟的视频中公布了他的战争目标。

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” he said as an overview on Feb. 28, even though there is no evidence that Iran posed an urgent danger to the United States.

2月28日，他在概述讲话中声称：“我们的目标是通过消除伊朗政权迫在眉睫的威胁来保护美国人民。”尽管目前没有任何证据表明伊朗对美国构成了紧迫威胁。

Now with a tenuous cease-fire in place, the president and his aides are expected to try to force Iran to make concessions during negotiations, with the aim of meeting some of the goals he initially stated.

如今，随着一份脆弱的停火协议正式生效，预计总统及其幕僚将试图在谈判期间迫使伊朗做出让步，以期兑现他最初提出的部分目标。

Here is an assessment of where the war stands based on five aims he described in that video.

以下是根据他在视频中描述的五个目标对当前战局所作的评估。

OBJECTIVE No. 1

目标一

“We’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated.”

“我们将摧毁他们的导弹，把他们的导弹工业夷为平地，让它再一次彻底被抹掉。”

The U.S. and Israeli militaries have destroyed many of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers in airstrikes. But a large number are undamaged, and Iran continued to fire missiles in the region on the first day of the cease-fire. In addition, it is using attack drones.

美以两国军队在空袭中摧毁了伊朗大量弹道导弹与发射装置，但仍有大量设施完好无损。停火首日，伊朗仍在该地区持续发射导弹，此外还使用了攻击型无人机。

At least five Gulf Arab nations said Wednesday that they had been attacked by missiles and drones fired by Iran after the agreement to pause combat. Those strikes, along with other developments, including continuing assaults by Israel in Lebanon, could jeopardize the cease-fire. (Iran said its oil refinery on Lavan Island had been attacked.)

周三，至少五个阿拉伯海湾国家表示，在停火协议达成后，它们遭到了伊朗发射的导弹和无人机袭击。这些袭击和以色列持续在黎巴嫩发动进攻等事态发展可能会直接危及本次停火。（伊朗称，其位于拉万岛的炼油厂遭到了袭击。）

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. bombs had hit “more than 450 ballistic missile storage facilities” and 80 percent of Iran’s missile production facilities during the war. But those numbers provide only a limited snapshot.

美国参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周三的新闻发布会上表示，战争期间，美军炸弹击中了“超过450个弹道导弹储存设施”，以及伊朗80%的导弹生产设施。但这些数字只能反映极其有限的局部情况。

Recent U.S. intelligence reports say that the Iranian military has been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs and returning them to operation hours after an attack.

美国最新情报报告显示，伊朗军方一直在清理遭美以炸弹袭击的地下导弹掩体与发射井，在袭击发生数小时后就使其恢复运行。

Some officials in the region say it is impossible to determine how many of Iran’s missiles remain, and they note too that the Iranian military has been hiding mobile launchers.

该地区部分官员表示，目前根本无法确定伊朗还剩余多少导弹，同时他们指出，伊朗军方一直在藏匿机动发射装置。

OBJECTIVE No. 2

目标二

“We’re going to annihilate their navy.”

“我们要全歼他们的海军。”

The United States and Israel have destroyed much of Iran’s navy. A notable attack took place near Sri Lanka in early March, when a U.S. submarine fired torpedoes to sink an Iranian destroyer, the IRIS Dena, which had a crew of 180 people. Most of them were killed.

美以两国已摧毁伊朗海军的大部分力量。3月初，斯里兰卡附近海域发生了一次备受瞩目的袭击：一艘美军潜艇发射鱼雷，击沉了伊朗海军“德纳号”驱逐舰，舰上载有180名船员，其中大多数人身亡。

The ship had taken part in naval exercises in India and was on its way home. The United States had participated in the same exercises. Sri Lanka rescued some survivors. There is no indication the American military made an effort to do so, and that could be a violation of international law under the Geneva Conventions, legal experts say.

该舰此前在印度参加了海军演习，当时正在返航途中，而美国也参与了同一场演习。斯里兰卡救起了部分幸存者，目前没有任何迹象表明美军采取了救援行动。法律专家表示，此举可能违反了《日内瓦公约》框架下的国际法。

The Iranian military continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz with projectiles that can be fired from land.

伊朗军方继续利用陆基发射的弹药掌控霍尔木兹海峡。

OBJECTIVE No. 3

目标三

“We’re going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces, and no longer use their I.E.D.s, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans.”

“我们将确保该地区的恐怖代理组织再也无法破坏地区乃至全球的稳定，再也无法袭击我方部队，再也不能使用他们的简易爆炸装置(IED)——有时也叫路边炸弹——造成成千上万的人员重伤与死亡，其中有很多都是美国人。”

Mr. Trump was referring here to militias in the region that receive financial support and other types of backing from Iran. The militias are still active. Some in Iraq have fired rockets at U.S. diplomatic buildings there during the war, for instance. The most powerful militia, Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has been attacked by Israel in recent years but has not been destroyed. It has fired rockets into Israel in recent weeks.

特朗普此处指的是中东地区接受伊朗资金与各类支持的民兵组织。这些民兵组织目前仍十分活跃。例如，战争期间，伊拉克境内的部分民兵就向当地的美国外交设施发射了火箭弹。实力最强的民兵组织是总部位于黎巴嫩的真主党，尽管近年来持续遭到以色列袭击，却并未被摧毁。该组织在最近几周向以色列境内发射了火箭弹。

Israel has invaded Lebanon and has signaled that it could occupy part of the south. On Wednesday, Israel continued carrying out attacks in Lebanon even though Pakistan and Iran said the two-week cease-fire was supposed to encompass the fighting in that country. Iran threatened to withdraw from the cease-fire because of the ongoing Israeli strikes.

以色列已入侵黎巴嫩，并释放信号称可能占领黎巴嫩南部部分地区。周三，尽管巴基斯坦与伊朗均表示这份为期两周的停火协议应涵盖黎巴嫩境内的战事，以色列仍持续在黎发动袭击。伊朗也因以色列的持续空袭威胁退出停火协议。

Mr. Trump’s reference to I.E.D.s — improvised explosive devices — and roadside bombs is an anachronism: Two decades ago, Iran supported some Iraqi Shiite groups that were fighting American soldiers during the Iraq War. But militias have not been laying roadside bombs to attack Americans in many years.

特朗普提及的简易爆炸装置和路边炸弹是一种过时的表述：20年前的伊拉克战争期间，伊朗曾支持部分与美军作战的伊拉克什叶派组织，但这些民兵组织多年来已不再放置路边炸弹袭击美国人。。

OBJECTIVE No. 4

目标四

“And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”

“我们将确保伊朗无法获得核武器。这是一个非常简单的信息。他们永远不会拥有核武器。”

U.S. intelligence agencies did not assess before the war that Iran had made the decision to develop a nuclear weapon. But the Trump administration has pointed to Iran’s highly enriched uranium, which the government created and stockpiled after Mr. Trump withdrew from an Obama-era nuclear deal in 2018, as evidence that Iran wants the option to make a weapon.

战前，美国情报机构并未评估认定伊朗已做出研发核武器的决定。但特朗普政府将伊朗的高浓缩铀储备作为伊朗谋求核武器制造能力的证据——这些高浓缩铀是特朗普2018年退出奥巴马时期核协议后伊朗生产并囤积的。

Mr. Trump ordered airstrikes last June that severely damaged three nuclear sites in Iran. However, U.S. officials say they think some highly enriched uranium remains in tunnels buried under rubble.

特朗普去年6月下令发动空袭，重创了伊朗三处核设施。但美国官员表示，他们认为仍有部分高浓缩铀埋藏在瓦砾之下的隧道中。

The American president wrote online on Wednesday that the United States would work with Iran to dig up the “Nuclear ‘Dust.’”

周三，美国总统在网络上发文称，美国将与伊朗合作，挖出这些“核‘粉尘’”。

Later on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Iran would give up the uranium but also suggested that the United States could send Special Operations troops to seize the material. Sending troops into Iran to seize the material would be risky.

周三晚些时候，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞思表示，伊朗将放弃这批铀材料，但同时也表示，美国可能派遣特种作战部队夺取这批材料。派遣地面部队进入伊朗境内夺取核材料将面临极高风险。

OBJECTIVE No. 5

目标五

“Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

“最后，我要对伟大、骄傲的伊朗人民说，今夜，你们获得自由的时刻近在眼前。待在避难所里，不要出门，外面危机四伏，炸弹将随处落下。等我们的行动结束后，去接管你们的政府吧，它将由你们掌控。这可能是你们几代人里唯一的一次机会。”

This came near the end of Mr. Trump’s video address. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had promised Mr. Trump in the run-up to the war that his country could help galvanize a popular uprising that would lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government. That revolt has not materialized.

这段话出现在特朗普视频讲话的结尾部分。战前筹备阶段，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾向特朗普承诺，以色列将协助煽动伊朗民众起义，推翻伊朗政府。但这场起义并未发生。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth say the United States has carried out “regime change,” and point to airstrikes that have killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and other senior officials.

特朗普与海格塞思声称，美国已经完成了“政权更迭”，并指出空袭炸死了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高层官员。

However, the newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain cleric, is a hard-liner aligned with a powerful arm of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The current government remains theocratic, authoritarian and anti-American, and continues to wage a war of resistance.

然而，新任最高领袖是遇刺的神职领袖之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，他属于强硬派，与伊朗军方的强大力量伊斯兰革命卫队深度结盟。伊朗现任政府依然是神权专制的反美政权，并持续发动抵抗战争。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the president’s national security adviser, expressed some doubt in a recent interview with ABC News about whether anything had really changed in Iran.

近期在接受ABC新闻采访时，兼任总统国家安全顾问的国务卿鲁比奥对伊朗是否真的发生了实质性变化表达了明确质疑。

“The people who lead them, this clerical regime, that is the problem,” he said. “And if there are new people now in charge who have a more reasonable vision of the future, that would be good news for us, for them, for the entire world. But we also have to be prepared for the possibility, maybe even the probability, that that is not the case.”

“问题在于领导他们的这群人，这个神权政权，”他说。“如果现在掌权的新领导层，对未来有更理性的构想，那对我们、对他们、对整个世界而言，都会是好消息。但我们也必须做好准备，迎接这种情况不会发生，甚至大概率不会发生的可能性。”

A tenuous cease-fire between the United States and Iran was being tested on Wednesday by heavy Israeli bombardment in Lebanon, which Israel and President Trump insisted was not part of the cease-fire deal, and by continued Iranian attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors.

美伊之间脆弱的停火协议在周三受到了严峻考验：以色列对黎巴嫩发动了猛烈轰炸，而以色列和特朗普总统坚称此次行动不属于停火协议范围；同时，伊朗继续对其波斯湾邻国发动袭击。

Although the cease-fire promised to bring two weeks of relative calm to the Middle East and buy time for Iran and the United States to hammer out a longer-term peace deal, many questions remained about the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, the safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and whether ongoing Iranian and Israeli attacks could upend the diplomatic process.

这份停火协议有望为中东地区带来两周相对平静的时期，并为伊朗与美国达成更长期的和平协议争取时间，但伊朗高浓缩铀的处置、霍尔木兹海峡船只的安全通行，以及伊朗和以色列持续的攻击是否会颠覆外交进程，仍然是未知数。

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, who helped broker the cease-fire that was announced on Tuesday, wrote on social media on Wednesday that violations had been reported in several places, “which undermine the spirit” of the peace process.

巴基斯坦总理谢赫巴兹·谢里夫参与促成了周二宣布的这份停火协议，周三，他在社交媒体上发文称，已有多地报告违反停火的情况，这破坏了和平进程的“精神”。

“I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict,” he wrote.

“我真诚而恳切地敦促各方保持克制，遵守双方商定的两周停火，以便让外交能够在和平解决冲突中发挥主导作用，”他写道。

Talks aimed at a long-term agreement were set to begin on Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed that Iranian leaders would take part in the negotiations. The Trump administration said it would send Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, a special envoy, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law.

旨在达成长期协议的谈判定于周六在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡开始。伊朗最高国家安全委员会证实，伊朗领导人将参加谈判。特朗普政府表示，将派副总统JD·万斯、特使史蒂夫·维特科夫以及特朗普总统的女婿贾里德·库什纳出席。

Mr. Trump said that his administration would “work closely with Iran,” a stark shift in tone after he demanded Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” for weeks and threatened to destroy the country’s “whole civilization” if it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night.

特朗普表示，他的政府将“与伊朗密切合作”，这与他几周来要求德黑兰“无条件投降”，并威胁如果伊朗不在周二晚上前重新开放霍尔木兹海峡就将摧毁其“整个文明”的强硬语气形成了鲜明对比。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that U.S. officials were working on a modified peace plan that would closely mirror a 15-point proposal that Mr. Trump put forward weeks ago, “so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，美国官员正在制定一份修改后的和平计划，该计划将与特朗普几周前提出的15点方案基本一致，“只要霍尔木兹海峡保持开放。”

The status of the strait was just one of many uncertainties on Wednesday.

霍尔木兹海峡的现状只是周三众多不确定因素中的一个。

Iran, which had effectively choked off most crude oil and natural gas shipments through the strait during the war, was supposed to reopen the waterway during the two-week cease-fire. But it was unclear if the strait was open on Wednesday, and who was in control of it. One Iranian news outlet reported that shipping in the strait had been halted in response to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon. Ms. Leavitt dismissed that report as “false.”

伊朗在战争期间已经实质上切断通过该海峡的大部分原油和天然气运输，按照停火协议，它应在两周停火期间重新开放该水道。但截至周三，有关海峡是否已经开放、由谁控制等问题，仍无法明确。一家伊朗新闻媒体报道称，鉴于以色列对伊朗支持的黎巴嫩真主党发动袭击，海峡航运已被暂停。莱维特驳斥该报道为“虚假消息”。

“We have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today,” she told reporters at the White House, “and I will reiterate the president’s expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely.”

“我们今天看到海峡的交通流量有所增加，”她在白宫告诉记者，“我再次重申总统的期望和要求：霍尔木兹海峡必须立即、迅速且安全地重新开放。”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said the cease-fire with Iran was “not the end of the battle.”

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，与伊朗的停火“并非战斗的结束”。

“It is a stop on the way to achieving all of our objectives,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday. “We have more objectives to achieve, and we will achieve them — either by agreement, or by resuming the fighting.”

“这只是我们实现所有目标途中的一个停顿，”内塔尼亚胡周三在一份声明中说。“我们还有更多目标要实现，我们将通过协议或恢复战斗来实现它们。”

Iranian leaders accused the United States of not holding up its side of the cease-fire, making the future of the truce even murkier. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, said the United States had already breached several principles of the deal.

伊朗领导人指责美国没有履行停火协议中的义务，这让停火的前景更加扑朔迷离。伊朗议会发言人穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫表示，美国已经违反了协议中的多项原则。

Israel was still attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Mr. Ghalibaf said was a violation of the truce. He added that a hostile drone also entered Iranian airspace in violation of the cease-fire.

以色列仍在对黎巴嫩的真主党发动攻击，加利巴夫称这违反了停火协议。他还称一架敌方无人机闯入伊朗领空，同样违反了停火规定。

Mr. Ghalibaf said the truce and the upcoming negotiations with the United States were “unreasonable” given these issues and continuing U.S. opposition to Iranian nuclear enrichment. Still, he stopped short of saying Iran would pull out of the cease-fire or withdraw from the talks in Islamabad.

加利巴夫表示，鉴于这些问题以及美国继续反对伊朗的核浓缩活动，即将到来的停火与美国谈判是“不合理的”。不过，他并未明确表示伊朗将退出停火或撤出在伊斯兰堡的谈判。

Ms. Leavitt and Mr. Netanyahu said the cease-fire did not extend to Lebanon, contradicting Iran and Mr. Sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, who said that Lebanon was protected under the deal.

莱维特和内塔尼亚胡均表示，停火协议不包括黎巴嫩，这与伊朗以及巴基斯坦总理谢里夫的说法相矛盾，后者称黎巴嫩受到该协议的保护。

On Wednesday, Israel carried out the biggest bombardment of Lebanon in its monthlong war against Hezbollah, which started firing rockets into Israel in March in solidarity with Iran.

周三，以色列对黎巴嫩发动了在其针对真主党长达一个月的战争中规模最大的轰炸行动。真主党自3月起开始向以色列发射火箭弹，以支援伊朗。

Israeli jets pummeled the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and other parts of the country, with many strikes hitting densely populated areas without warning. The Israeli military said it had targeted more than 100 Hezbollah targets in the span of just 10 minutes.

以色列战机猛烈轰炸黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特以及该国其他地区，许多袭击在没有预警的情况下击中了人口稠密地区。以色列军方表示，在短短10分钟内就打击了100多个真主党目标。

Residents had no time to flee as munitions rained down on crowded neighborhoods, some once considered safe.

当弹药如雨点般落在拥挤的居民区时，居民们根本来不及逃离，其中一些街区曾被认为是安全的。

At least 182 people were killed and about 900 others were injured, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, making it among the deadliest days since the war began. Search teams were looking for more bodies under the rubble of apartment buildings, and the sound of ambulances echoed across Beirut as plumes of thick, acrid smoke rose above the skyline.

根据黎巴嫩卫生部的统计，至少有182人死亡，约900人受伤，这是战争爆发以来最血腥的日子之一。搜救队正在公寓楼的废墟下寻找更多遇难者遗体，救护车的鸣笛声回荡在贝鲁特上空，浓烈刺鼻的黑烟在城市天际线上升腾。

周三，黎巴嫩贝鲁特马兹拉滨海区遭空袭后的景象。

The truce was also strained by continued Iranian attacks reported by Persian Gulf countries on Wednesday. Kuwait’s army said that since 8 a.m. local time, the country had faced 28 Iranian drone attacks, some of which had targeted “vital oil and power facilities” and caused extensive damage.

波斯湾国家周三报告的伊朗持续袭击也让停火协议承受压力。科威特军方表示，自当地时间上午8时以来，该国已遭遇28次伊朗无人机袭击，其中一些针对“重要的石油和电力设施”，并造成严重破坏。

In the United Arab Emirates, the defense ministry reported 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drone attacks launched by Iran since the beginning of the cease-fire. And the Saudi defense ministry said on Wednesday afternoon that it had intercepted nine drones in recent hours, without naming an attacker.

在阿拉伯联合酋长国，国防部报告称，自停火开始以来，伊朗已发射17枚弹道导弹和35架无人机。沙特国防部周三下午表示，最近几小时内拦截了九架无人机，但未指明攻击者。

It was unclear why the attacks were continuing, despite the truce and the beginning of what Mr. Trump called “a big day for World Peace.” Iran’s state media also reported that an oil refinery on Lavan, an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf, had been struck by unspecified “enemies.”

尽管停火已经开始，且特朗普称这是“世界和平的重要一天”，但这些袭击为何仍在继续，目前尚不得而知。伊朗官方媒体还报道称，位于波斯湾拉万岛的一座炼油厂遭到不明“敌人”的袭击。

Looming over the cease-fire was the possibility of further U.S. and Israeli military action in Iran.

停火协议上空还笼罩着美国和以色列可能对伊朗采取进一步军事行动的阴影。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Wednesday that all U.S. military objectives had been achieved in what Mr. Hegseth called “a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.”

美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军周三对记者表示，美国在海格塞斯所称的“战场上的一次历史性的、压倒性的胜利”中已实现所有军事目标。

But Mr. Hegseth suggested that Mr. Trump could still order a U.S. commando raid to seize Iran’s stockpile of 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Such a mission would at a minimum involve hundreds of U.S. Special Operations troops and would come with high risks, current and former commanders say.

但海格塞斯暗示，特朗普仍可能下令美军特种部队突袭，以夺取约440公斤的伊朗高浓缩铀库存。现任和前任指挥官均表示，此类任务至少需要动用数百名美国特种作战部队士兵，且风险极高。

“They will either give it to us,” Mr. Hegseth said of the uranium, “or we’ll take it out.”

“他们要么把铀交给我们，”海格塞斯谈到这些高浓缩铀时说，“要么我们就自己去取。”

Two rows of storage tanks the height of 20-story buildings, filled with liquefied gas, help explain why China is better prepared than many countries to endure the interruption of gas supplies from the Middle East.

两排20层楼高的储罐，里面装满了液化天然气，这在一定程度上解释了为什么中国比许多国家更有能力应对来自中东的天然气供应中断。

Each of six tanks in Yancheng, an industrial port, holds enough natural gas to meet the household needs of Beijing’s 22 million people for more than two months. Adjacent to them are four more tanks that are only slightly smaller.

在工业港口盐城的六座储罐中，每一座都储存着足以满足北京2200万人口两个多月的家庭用气需求。旁边还有另外四个梯级略小的储罐。

The storage tanks are part of a huge effort by China over the past decade to accumulate stockpiles of all kinds of commodities, from pork and rice to rare-earth metals and coal, in case of a disruption of overseas supplies. But the natural gas stockpiles — the world’s largest above ground are in Yancheng, with more giant storage tanks in southern China — are conspicuously important now. They have helped China cushion the supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East even as its Asian neighbors, including India, Pakistan and Vietnam, are running low on natural gas.

这些储罐是中国过去十年来大规模囤积各种大宗商品（从猪肉、大米到稀土金属和煤炭）努力的一部分，以防海外供应中断。但天然气库存——盐城拥有全球最大的地面储气设施，中国南方还有更多巨型储罐——现在显得格外重要。它们帮助中国缓冲了中东战争造成的供应冲击，而包括印度、巴基斯坦和越南在内的亚洲邻国正面临天然气短缺。

On Tuesday evening, the United States and Iran reached a cease-fire deal that would open the strait and allow tankers and other freighters carrying oil, gas and other commodities to proceed through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been effectively closed since the first U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran five and a half weeks ago.

周二晚，美国与伊朗达成停火协议，霍尔木兹海峡将重新开放，使运载石油、天然气及其他大宗商品的油轮和货船得以通过。自五个半星期前美以对伊朗发动首次打击以来，该海峡实际上一直处于关闭状态。

No matter when regular traffic resumes, Qatar, a country on the Persian Gulf and one of the world’s top exporters of liquefied natural gas, has said it may take years to repair its gas facilities.

无论何时恢复正常通行，位于波斯湾、且是全球主要液化天然气出口国之一的卡塔尔表示，其天然气设施可能需要数年时间才能修复。

China is the world’s largest importer of natural gas and the largest consumer of fertilizer, much of which is made from natural gas. China also has the biggest chemicals industry, much of which requires natural gas as well.

中国是全球最大的天然气进口国，也是最大的化肥消费国，而化肥大多以天然气为原料。中国还拥有全球最大的化工产业，其中很大一部分同样依赖天然气。

The country has other supply options besides the storage tanks, which hold liquefied natural gas brought in by sea. It has constructed pipelines to gas fields in Central Asia and Russia. China has developed coal-based processes that can replace natural gas in making some kinds of chemicals. And China has more than doubled its domestic production of natural gas in the past decade through fracking and other technologies.

除了通过海运进口并储存在储罐中的液化天然气外，中国还拥有其他供应渠道。该国已修建通往中亚和俄罗斯气田的管道，还开发了煤基工艺，在生产某些化工产品时替代天然气。此外，通过水力压裂等技术，中国在过去十年中将国内天然气产量提高了一倍以上。

While the United States now leads the world in oil and natural gas production by a wide margin, China is the fourth-largest producer of natural gas, trailing only the United States, Russia and Iran. China is the fifth-largest oil producer, behind the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada.

尽管美国目前在石油和天然气产量上遥遥领先于全球，但中国已是全球第四大天然气生产国，仅次于美国、俄罗斯和伊朗。中国还是全球第五大石油生产国，排在美国、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和加拿大之后。

Chinese government data shows that natural gas imports through the Strait of Hormuz represented only 6.9 percent of the country’s overall gas consumption last year.

中国政府数据显示，去年通过霍尔木兹海峡进口的天然气仅占其天然气总消费量的6.9%。

Beijing’s top leaders have long been preoccupied with their country’s vulnerability to pressure from the American or Indian navies on their seaborne supply of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. The country’s programs to develop solar and wind power and electric cars as alternatives to oil all moved into high gear 20 years ago.

北京高层长期以来一直担心从中东经海路进口石油和天然气易受美国或印度海军施压的影响。因此，中国在发展太阳能、风能以及电动汽车等石油替代方案上，早在20年前就已全面提速。

“They’ve been thinking about this for a long time,” said Geoffrey Garrett, the dean of the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.

南加州大学马歇尔商学院院长杰弗里·加勒特表示：“他们考虑这个问题已经很久了。”

China’s expansion of strategic stockpiles of fossil fuels is more recent, an effort pushed by its top leader, Xi Jinping. He has uttered dark warnings about the challenges facing the globe and the need for China to depend on commodities and technologies found within its borders.

中国扩大化石燃料战略储备则是更为近期的事情，是在最高领导人习近平推动下展开的。他曾多次就全球面临的挑战发出形势严峻的警告，强调中国需要依靠本国资源和技术。

In a speech in 2022, he called for China to “enhance coal, oil and gas storage capacity, promote the large-scale application of advanced energy storage technologies, and improve the capacity for self-sufficient energy supply.”

在2022年的一次讲话中，他要求中国“加强煤气油储备能力建设，推进先进储能技术规模化应用，提升能源自主供给能力”。

There are gaps in China’s stockpiles. Chinese officials have discussed the creation of a national reserve for helium, which is crucial to the manufacturing of semiconductors. China imports large quantities of helium from the Persian Gulf, and there has been no sign that China started a stockpile of the commodity before Iran closed the strait.

中国的储备仍存在一些短板。中国官员曾讨论建立国家氦气储备，而氦气对半导体制造至关重要。中国从波斯湾进口大量氦气，且没有迹象表明在伊朗封锁海峡之前中国已开始储备这种大宗商品。

China’s natural gas reserves, together with imports from places that are not affected by fighting in the Mideast, like Australia, Turkmenistan and Russia, are ample for home heating and cooking. Households, including residential electricity use, represent less than 15 percent of China’s natural gas consumption. China is also finishing its second consecutive warm winter, and residential gas demand has dropped steeply with the end of the heating season last month.

中国的天然气储备，加上来自澳大利亚、土库曼斯坦和俄罗斯等未受中东战事影响地区的进口，足以满足家庭取暖和烹饪需求。包括居民用电在内的家庭用气占中国天然气消费量的不到15%。此外，中国正经历连续第二个暖冬，随着上个月供暖季结束，居民用气需求大幅下降。

The country generates only 4 percent of its electricity from natural gas, and can easily replace that with coal and, to some extent, renewable energy. Within days of the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Premier Li Qiang, China’s second-highest official, called for the country to “create a safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, resilient, intelligent and flexible new power grid,” according to People’s Daily, the official newspaper of China’s Communist Party.

中国仅有4%的电力来自天然气，可以轻易地用煤炭以及在某种程度上用可再生能源替代。据中共机关报《人民日报》报道，在美以对伊朗开战后的几天内，中国二号人物、国务院总理李强就要求“打造安全可靠、绿色低碳、坚强韧性、智能灵活的新型电网”。

Natural gas is particularly difficult to store. The easiest approach is to keep it underground by pumping it into salt caverns or into previously exhausted underground natural gas fields near big cities. But China has few of these caverns and fields relative to its enormous population.

天然气尤其难以储存。最简单的方法是通过将其泵入盐穴或大城市附近已枯竭的地下天然气田进行地下储存。但相对于中国庞大的人口，这类洞穴和气田很少。

That has prompted it to pursue a technologically audacious strategy: storing enormous quantities of supercooled gas as a liquid in aboveground storage tanks. The state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation disclosed in December that it had built 18 of its largest size of storage tanks for liquefied natural gas — more than twice as many as the rest of the world combined.

这促使中国采取一种技术上颇为大胆的策略：经超低温液化后，将天然气储存在地面大型储罐中。中国海洋石油集团在去年12月披露，已建成18个最大规格的液化天然气储罐——数量超过全球其他地区总和的两倍。

South Korea is constructing seven equally large L.N.G. tanks about 75 miles south of Seoul, to be completed in stages by the end of 2029. Japan has also begun building slightly smaller storage tanks.

韩国正在首尔以南约120公里的地方建设七个同等规模的液化天然气储罐，预计将在2029年底前分阶段完工。日本也已开始建设规模略小的储罐。

Each of China’s superlarge tanks, including the six at Yancheng, has a volume of 9.5 million cubic feet. By comparison, the arena at Madison Square Garden in New York City has a volume of 6.2 million cubic feet.

中国每个超大型储罐（包括盐城的六个）的罐容为27万立方米。作为对比，纽约市麦迪逊广场花园球馆的容积约为18万立方米。

2017年，中国保定的一处液化天然气储存设施。过去十年间，中国已发展出储存远超以往规模的技术。

The row of enormous storage tanks in Yancheng holds liquefied natural gas at a temperature of minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 162 degrees Celsius. When the gas is allowed to warm gradually to room temperature through a system of pipes, it expands 600-fold. The tanks in Yancheng are connected to a long pier into the Yellow Sea to unload L.N.G. from ships.

盐城这一排巨型储罐中储存的液化天然气温度为摄氏零下162度。当气体通过管道系统逐步回温至室温时，体积会膨胀600倍。盐城的这些储罐连接着一个伸入黄海的长码头，用于从船上卸载液化天然气。

Papers published in Chinese engineering journals reveal the design breakthroughs involved in holding enormous quantities of supercooled natural gas, which can be explosive if ignited or warmed too quickly.

中国工程类期刊发表的论文显示，在储存大量超低温天然气方面取得了一系列设计突破，因为这种气体一旦被点燃或升温过快，存在爆炸风险。

Each storage tank has an outer concrete frame to provide rigidity. Inside the concrete walls is a second layer of flexible plates made from a special steel alloy with a lot of manganese and nickel. Sophisticated robots weld the plates.

每个储罐都有一个混凝土外层框架以提供刚性。混凝土壁内部是由一种含大量锰和镍的特殊钢合金制成的柔性板材。先进的机器人负责焊接这些板材。

China has one more tool to make sure it has enough natural gas: making less fertilizer for export. Analysts say that since the start of the war in Iran, China has already halted most of its overseas fertilizer sales.

中国还有一项手段来确保天然气的充足：减少用于出口的化肥产量。分析人士表示，自伊朗战争爆发以来，中国已停止了大部分化肥出口。

While farmers in the United States, India and elsewhere have expressed concern about fertilizer shortages this spring, residents of villages near the Yancheng L.N.G. storage tanks said they had plenty. At a nearby store, tall stacks of fertilizer were displayed for sale.

尽管美国、印度等地的农民对今年春季可能出现的化肥短缺表示担忧，但在盐城液化天然气储罐附近村庄的居民表示，他们的供应十分充足。在附近的一家商店里，可以看到高高堆放的化肥正在出售。

The fertilizer store’s salesman, who gave his family name, Liu, said China’s authorities had made sure that fertilizer was abundantly available and that prices did not rise too sharply.

这家化肥店的刘姓售货员表示，中国的有关部门确保化肥供应充足，价格不会出现大幅上涨。

“I stocked up quite a bit of fertilizer in advance — after all, there’s a war going on in the Middle East,” he added.

“我提前囤了不少化肥——毕竟中东正在打仗，”他补充道。

For years, China has been one of Iran’s most important lifelines. China has bought almost all of its oil exports, shielded it diplomatically and helped it weather international isolation. Now, according to three Iranian officials, Beijing has used that influence for a different purpose: to press Iran to accept the cease-fire with the United States.

多年来，中国一直是伊朗最重要的生命线之一。中国买下了伊朗几乎全部的石油出口，在外交上为其提供庇护，并帮助其抵御国际孤立。如今，据三名伊朗官员透露，北京利用这种影响力达到了另一个目的：施压伊朗接受与美国的停火协议。

Iran’s decision to accept the two-week cease-fire proposal brokered by Pakistan came after diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and a last-minute push by China, according to the Iranian officials. China asked Iran to show flexibility and defuse tensions, they said.

据这些伊朗官员介绍，伊朗接受由巴基斯坦斡旋的两周停火提议是在巴基斯坦的外交努力以及中国在最后时刻的推促下作出的。他们表示，中国要求伊朗展现灵活性并缓和紧张局势。

The intervention reflects not only Beijing’s influence over Tehran but also its own stake in preventing a protracted war that could disrupt energy supplies or set off a global recession, as well as hurt Persian Gulf countries, with which China also has close relations. The deal also calls for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

中国的介入不仅反映出北京对德黑兰的影响力，也表明中国自身同样不希望出现持久战，那将会扰乱能源供应或引发全球经济衰退，并伤害到与中国关系密切的海湾国家。该协议还要求立即开放霍尔木兹海峡。

Chinese officials have not publicly described Beijing’s involvement in the lead-up to the deal announced by President Trump on Tuesday night. Asked on Wednesday if China had helped persuade Iran to agree to the deal, a foreign ministry spokeswoman in Beijing neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, saying only generally that China would continue to “maintain communication with all parties and continue to work toward de-escalating tensions and bringing about a comprehensive cease-fire.”

中国官员尚未公开说明北京在特朗普总统于周二晚宣布该协议前所发挥的作用。周三，在被问及中国是否帮助说服伊朗同意该协议时，中国外交部的一名发言人既未证实，也未否认，仅笼统地表示，中国将继续“同各方保持沟通，继续为缓和局势、平息战火作出努力”。

The deal, which Iran described as a victory in which Washington had accepted its terms, came 90 minutes before a deadline set by Mr. Trump for Iran to accede to his demands or risk widespread devastation.

伊朗将这项协议描述为一场胜利，称华盛顿接受了它的条件。协议达成时，距离特朗普设定的最后期限仅剩90分钟——特朗普要求伊朗在此期限前接受要求，否则将面临大规模打击。

China’s moves in recent days reflect the delicate balance that Beijing is trying to strike. At the United Nations on Tuesday, Beijing backed Iran by joining Moscow in vetoing a Security Council resolution that could have paved the way for military action to open the Strait of Hormuz. But behind the scenes, by the Iranian officials’ description, China also urged Tehran to pull back from escalation.

中国近几日的举动反映出北京试图维持的微妙平衡。周二在联合国，中国站在了伊朗一边，与俄罗斯一起否决了一项安理会决议，该决议本可为以军事行动打开霍尔木兹海峡铺平道路。但按这些伊朗官员的说法，在幕后，中国也敦促德黑兰避免局势升级。

Wu Xinbo, a prominent foreign policy expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, said he believed that China had played an active role in achieving the cease-fire, not just by encouraging Pakistan to play a role as a mediator but also by directly encouraging Iran to strike a deal.

上海复旦大学著名外交政策专家吴心伯表示，他认为中国在促成停火方面发挥了积极作用，不仅鼓励巴基斯坦充当调解角色，也直接推动伊朗达成协议。

The top Chinese foreign affairs official, Wang Yi, made a flurry of calls to his counterparts in the region emphasizing the need for a cease-fire and for countries not to resort to force to reopen the strait, according to the foreign ministry. Last week, he met in Beijing with Pakistani officials, who came to the Chinese capital after hosting a meeting in Islamabad with officials from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to discuss a possible resolution of the conflict.

据中国外交部称，中国最高外交官员王毅与该地区的各国外长进行了密集通话，强调停火的必要性，并呼吁各国不要为了海峡的重新开放而诉诸武力。上周，他在北京会见了巴基斯坦官员，在来到中国首都之前，巴方官员刚在伊斯兰堡主持了与土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和埃及官员的会议，讨论可能的冲突解决方案。

Pakistan and Iran are both heavily dependent on China. Loans from China have become vital to keeping the heavily indebted Pakistani economy afloat. And China has played a central role over the last several years in supporting the Iranian economy, by buying almost all of its oil exports at a time when many other countries avoided doing business with Iran because of its nuclear weapons program.

巴基斯坦和伊朗都在很大程度上依赖中国。中国提供的贷款已成为维持债务沉重的巴基斯坦经济运转的关键支撑。而在过去几年中，中国在支持伊朗经济方面发挥了核心作用——在多国因伊朗核武器计划而避免与其做生意的情况下，中国购买了伊朗几乎全部的石油出口。

Shen Dingli, an independent international relations scholar in Shanghai, noted that China had sought to distance itself from Iran since the war began. Beijing sent only a vice foreign minister to the Iranian Embassy to express condolences on the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who had been killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

上海的独立国际关系学者沈丁立指出，自战争爆发以来，中国一直试图与伊朗保持距离。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在美以对伊朗的打击中丧生后，北京仅派了一位外交部副部长前往伊朗大使馆吊唁。

Mr. Wang, the foreign minister, in one of his calls with his Iranian counterpart, even urged Tehran to “pay attention to the legitimate concerns of its neighbors,” meaning the Gulf nations, Mr. Shen noted.

沈丁立还提到，外长王毅在与伊朗外长的一次通话中，甚至敦促德黑兰“重视邻国合理关切”，这里的邻国指海湾国家。

China has often tried to cast itself as a mediator on the world stage and a responsible global power, in unspoken contrast to the United States. It helped broker a surprise rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, for example. But other attempts have been less successful. Beijing set forth a 12-point peace plan for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a three-part proposal for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, both of which were vague and saw little apparent follow-up.

中国经常试图将自己塑造为世界舞台上的调解者和负责任的全球大国——与美国形成不言而喻的对比。例如，2023年，中国促成了沙特阿拉伯与伊朗之间出人意料的复交。但其他尝试则不那么成功。北京为俄乌战争提出了12点和平计划，并就以色列与巴勒斯坦的“两国方案”提出三点思路，但它们都较为笼统，后续推进也不明显。

It seems like a familiar rite of passage: a dad teaching his daughter to drive. Except in this case, the girl is at the helm of a hulking battle tank, her head sticking out from the driver’s hatch, while the father — the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un — reclines on the hull behind her.

这一幕看起来就像是爸爸教女儿开车这种人们熟悉的成长仪式。只不过在这个场景里，女孩驾驶的是一辆庞大的主战坦克，她的头从驾驶员舱口探出来，而她的父亲——朝鲜最高领导人金正恩——正斜靠在她身后的坦克车体上。

The video and photographs of the girl, Kim Ju-ae, who is believed to be around 13, apparently driving the heavily armed vehicle during a military exercise, were published last month by North Korean state media. It was the latest in a series of public appearances that have fueled speculation that she is being groomed to succeed her father.

上个月，朝鲜官方媒体发布了这段视频和照片，画面中，据信年约13岁的女孩金主爱在一场军事演习中驾驶着这辆重装甲车辆。这是她一系列公开亮相中的最新一次，外界由此愈发猜测，她正被培养为父亲的接班人。

That theory has gained added credence from South Korea’s spy agency, which now believes Ju-ae has officially been chosen to succeed her father, South Korean lawmakers briefed on the matter said on Monday. They added that the agency’s analysis was based on “credible intelligence” rather than circumstantial context.

听取了相关简报的韩国议员周一表示，韩国情报机构为这一论断提供了更多佐证，该机构目前认为，金主爱已被正式选定为父亲的接班人。议员们还称，情报机构的分析基于“可靠情报”，而非间接旁证。

In the tank video, Mr. Kim is shown riding on the hull, smiling and occasionally leaning down to speak to his daughter, who is looking straight ahead.

在坦克驾驶的视频中，金正恩坐在车体上，面带微笑，时不时俯身和目视前方的女儿交谈。

The images seemed to be “an intent to highlight Ju-ae’s military exceptionality” and “dilute skepticism of a female heir,” said Park Sun-won, a lawmaker on the South Korean parliamentary intelligence committee.

韩国国会情报委员会议员朴宣元（音）表示，这些画面意在“凸显金主爱在军事领域的非凡资质”，同时“消解外界对女性继承人的质疑”。

The existence of Ju-ae, along with her name and age, was first revealed by the retired N.B.A. star Dennis Rodman, who visited Mr. Kim in 2013. She made her public debut at a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2022. Just this year, she has been spotted alongside her 42-year-old father at inspections of arms factories and other missile launches, and she has been seen shooting pistols with senior military officials and firing a sniper rifle.

金主爱的存在、姓名与年龄最早是由已退役的NBA球星丹尼斯·罗德曼2013年访朝会见金正恩时对外披露的。2022年，她在一次洲际弹道导弹试射活动中首次公开亮相。仅在今年，她就多次被目击陪同42岁的父亲视察军工厂、观摩导弹发射，还被拍到与军方高级官员一同练习手枪射击、操作狙击步枪。

Lim Eul-chul, a scholar of North Korea at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said that surrounding Ju-ae with such martial imagery at an early age was a calculated strategy to craft the legitimacy she needs to rule over North Korea’s deeply patriarchal political system. Since the country’s founding in 1948, all of its leaders — Mr. Kim and his father and grandfather — have been men.

首尔远东问题研究所朝鲜问题学者林乙哲（音）表示，在金主爱年纪尚幼时就为其塑造大量军事化形象是一项精心策划的策略，目的是为她在朝鲜根深蒂固的父权政治体系中执政奠定合法性基础。自1948年建国以来，朝鲜历任最高领导人——金正恩及其父亲和祖父——均为男性。

Mr. Lim said, “In order for a woman to assume the position of supreme leader, it is very important for them to show that they have the military experience and knowledge that can put them on equal footing with men.”

林乙哲说：“对于一名女性而言，要登上最高领导人的位置，至关重要的一点是向外界证明，她拥有能与男性平起平坐的军事经验与知识。”

“Building a narrative of courage is very important,” he noted.

他特别指出：“构建关于勇气的叙事非常重要。”

Though Mr. Kim’s rule is not expected to end anytime soon, Mr. Lim added, the North Korean leader is most likely beginning the process for his daughter while she is still young to dampen potential objections.

林乙哲还说，尽管目前预计金正恩的执政不会在短期内结束，但这位朝鲜最高领导人很可能趁女儿尚且年幼时就启动接班布局，平息潜在的反对声音。

“Over the years, Kim Ju-ae will be shown going through many experiences, sharing in the happiness and sadness of the North Korean people,” Mr. Lim said. “Eventually, any initial resistance to her succession will turn into resigned acceptance.”

“未来数年，外界会看到金主爱经历各类历练，与朝鲜人民同甘共苦，”林乙哲说。“最终，对她接班的所有最初抵触都会转变为无奈的接纳。”

South Korea’s spy agency previously said that it believed Mr. Kim had up to three children, and that the eldest might be a boy. In recent years, amid Ju-ae’s conspicuous ascent, some have speculated that the son has a disability, has otherwise been deemed unfit or might still one day materialize to sideline his sister.

韩国情报机构此前曾表示，据信金正恩最多有三个孩子，长子可能是一个男孩。近些年，在金主爱高调崛起的过程中，有外界猜测，这个儿子可能存在残疾，或因其他原因被认为不适合继位，也有可能在未来某天突然现身，取代妹妹的位置。

Mr. Lim said that he was among the skeptics of the theory that a son might suddenly appear.

林乙哲表示，他并不认同这个儿子会突然现身的说法。

“To have a son but not reveal him would go against Kim Jong-un’s leadership style,” he said. “Unlike his father or grandfather, who tried to promote a mysticism around their bloodline, Kim Jong-un has shown himself to be much more forthcoming about his family, whether it’s his wife or sister.”

“明明有儿子却始终不对外公开，这不符合金正恩的执政风格，”他说，“他的父亲和祖父始终试图为自身血统营造神秘感，而金正恩截然不同，无论是妻子还是妹妹，他对自己的家庭情况向来更为坦率。”

Mr. Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, and his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, have built up their own public profiles in recent years. Kim Yo-jong had herself been floated as a possible heir.

近些年，金正恩的妻子李雪主、妹妹金与正都已树立起各自的公众形象，金与正还曾一度被视作潜在的接班人。

Ju-ae has been portrayed as both a loving daughter and a budding diplomat, meeting Alexander Matsegora, at the time the Russian ambassador to North Korea, in 2024.

金主爱被塑造出的形象既是乖巧孝顺的女儿，又是初露锋芒的外交官，2024年她曾与时任俄罗斯驻朝鲜大使亚历山大·马采戈拉会面。

At times, Ju-ae has even taken precedence over her father in photographs — a highly unusual decision that analysts said would have not been cleared without Mr. Kim’s sign-off.

有时，金主爱在照片中的站位甚至优于父亲——分析人士称，这是一个极不寻常的决定，未经金正恩本人批准绝不可能通过。

The United States and Iran reached an 11th-hour cease-fire deal on Tuesday evening, hours after President Trump threatened to start wiping out Iran’s “whole civilization” if it did not allow commercial shipping to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.

周二晚间，美国与伊朗在最后一刻达成停火协议。此前数小时，特朗普总统还曾威胁称，如果伊朗不允许商业航运安全通过霍尔木兹海峡，美国将开始摧毁伊朗的“整个文明”。

The agreement was announced by Mr. Trump in a post on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in the dispute, urged him to stand down from the 8 p.m. Eastern time deadline he had set for Iran to accede to his demands. Pakistan proposed that each side observe a two-week cease-fire, and that during that time Iran allow oil, gas and other vessels to proceed unmolested through the economically vital waterway.

该协议由特朗普在社交媒体上发帖宣布，此前数小时，作为争端调解方的巴基斯坦敦促他撤回此前设定的美东时间晚上8点的最后期限——他曾限定伊朗在此期限前接受他的要求。巴基斯坦提议双方实施为期两周的停火，在此期间，伊朗应允许石油、天然气及其他船只不受干扰地通过这一对全球经济至关重要的水道。

The cease-fire buys both sides time to try to reach a longer-term end to the war, which began at the end of February with the United States and Israel subjecting Iran to a withering military assault.

停火为双方争取了时间，以便寻求达成时间更久的停战协议。这场战争始于2月底，当时美国和以色列对伊朗发动了猛烈的军事打击。

Mr. Trump said that the agreement was “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”

特朗普表示，该协议“以伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即、安全开放霍尔木兹海峡为前提”。

Iran accepted Pakistan’s cease-fire proposal after frantic diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and last-minute intervention by China, a key ally, according to three Iranian officials. Iran’s national security council officially confirmed the agreement, casting it as a victory in which the United States accepted Iran’s terms.

据三名伊朗官员称，在巴基斯坦的紧急外交斡旋以及关键盟友——中国在最后时刻介入下，伊朗接受了巴基斯坦的停火提议。伊朗国家安全委员会正式确认了该协议，并将其描述为一次胜利，称美国接受了伊朗的条件。

Earlier, as the day wore on, it was not clear whether an off-ramp would emerge from the talks. It was not even clear if there were talks.

此前，随着当天时间推移，谈判是否能找到缓解局势的出路并不明确。甚至连是否存在谈判都不清楚。

At one point, with Mr. Trump threatening devastating strikes on power plants, bridges and other critical infrastructure — a possible war crime under international law — Iran stopped engaging in the indirect negotiations.

特朗普一度威胁要对发电厂、桥梁及其他关键基础设施发动毁灭性打击——这在国际法下可能构成战争罪——伊朗停止了间接谈判。

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Mr. Trump warned earlier in the day, though he said he hoped “maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen.”

特朗普当天早些时候发出警告：“今晚，一个完整的文明将会消亡，且再也无法恢复。”不过他也表示，希望“也许会发生某种具有革命性、极其美妙的事情”。

In the hours before the 8 p.m. deadline, the United States and Israel stepped up their attacks on Iran. All the while, the Pakistanis were reported to be redoubling their efforts to get a cease-fire.

在美东时间晚上8点最后期限前的几个小时里，美国和以色列加大了对伊朗的攻击力度。与此同时，据报道，巴基斯坦方面正加倍努力促成停火。

In urging Mr. Trump to hold off, the country’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said on social media that diplomatic efforts were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results.” He also asked Iran to open the waterway for two weeks.

巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫在敦促特朗普暂缓行动的同时，他也在社交媒体上表示，外交努力“正在稳步、强劲、有力地推进，有望取得实质性成果”。他还要求伊朗开放该水道两周。

Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said in a social media post on Tuesday evening that diplomacy to stop the war had taken a “step forward” from a “critical, sensitive stage.”

伊朗驻巴基斯坦大使周二晚间在社交媒体上发帖称，为停止战争所进行的外交努力，已从“关键、敏感阶段”“向前迈进了一步”。

But as night fell in the Middle East, Iranians were bracing for the possibility of more strikes. Some formed human chains along bridges and around power plants across the country, videos and photographs posted by state and other local media showed. It’s unclear whether the demonstrations were spontaneous or planned by the government.

但随着夜幕降临中东，伊朗民众仍在为可能出现的更多打击做准备。官方媒体及其他当地媒体发布的视频和照片显示，一些人在全国各地的桥梁和发电厂周围组成人链。目前尚不清楚这些示威是自发的，还是由政府组织的。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们正在关注的其他情况：

• Railways struck: The Israeli military said it had launched airstrikes on eight bridges across Iran, and warned Iranians not to ride railroads until 9 p.m. local time. Iranian state media reported that at least three people were killed when a railway bridge was hit in the central city of Kashan.

• 铁路遭袭：以色列军方表示，已对伊朗境内的八座桥梁发动空袭，并警告伊朗民众在当地时间晚上9点前不要乘坐铁路。伊朗官方媒体报道称，中部城市卡尚一座铁路桥遭袭，造成至少三人死亡。

• Condemnation of Trump’s threat: Some commentators on the right are splitting from Mr. Trump, while some Republican lawmakers have expressed concern that the threat could cause the president to lose public support. Democrats forcefully condemned Mr. Trump, with a growing number calling for him to be removed from office.

• 对特朗普威胁的谴责：一些右翼评论人士开始与特朗普保持距离，部分共和党议员也表示担忧，认为这一威胁可能导致总统失去公众支持。民主党方面则强烈谴责特朗普，且越来越多的人呼吁将其免职。

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,665 civilians, including 244 children, had been killed in Iran as of Monday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Monday said more than 1,500 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. In attacks blamed on Iran, at least 50 people have been killed in Gulf nations. In Israel, at least 20 people had been killed as of Monday. The American death toll stands at 13 service members, with hundreds of others wounded.

• 死亡人数：人权活动家通讯社称，截至周一，伊朗至少有1665名平民丧生，其中包括244名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部周一表示，在以色列与真主党最新一轮交火中，已有超过1500人死亡。在归咎于伊朗发动的袭击中，海湾国家至少有50人死亡。在以色列，截至周一已有至少20人死亡。美方已有13名军人死亡，另有数百人受伤。

It was a stunning threat that promised to eliminate Iranian civilization, delivered with all the casual callousness that has become President Trump’s preferred style of communication.

这是一种令人震惊的威胁，扬言要消灭伊朗文明，并以特朗普总统惯用的那种轻描淡写的冷酷无情语气发出。

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”

“今晚，整个文明将消亡，永不复返。”

And that is what passed as a normal Tuesday-morning update from the Trump White House: a warning of mass destruction and what international law would define as war crimes, blithely delivered on Truth Social, posted alongside ads for bullet-shaped pens, patriotic hats and a gala dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

这是特朗普白宫在一个普通的周二上午所做的日常更新：一则关于大规模毁灭的警告（按国际法可能被认定为战争罪），随意地发布在Truth Social平台上，而这些文字的旁边，就紧挨着子弹形状的钢笔、爱国主题的帽子和马阿拉歌庄园晚宴的营销广告。

“However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?” Mr. Trump wrote in his message. “We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.”

“不过，现在我们已经实现了彻底、完全的政权更迭，不同的、更聪明的、不那么激进的人占据上风，也许会发生某种具有革命性、极其美妙的事情，谁知道呢？”特朗普在帖子中写道。“我们今夜就会看到，这是漫长复杂的世界历史上最为重要的时刻。”

The message arrived two days after Mr. Trump marked Easter Sunday by calling on the Iranians to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote.

这条消息发出的两天前，特朗普在纪念复活节时呼吁伊朗结束对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。他写道：“把这他妈的海峡打开，你们这些疯狂的混蛋，否则你们会生活在地狱里——等着瞧吧！赞美真主。”

In the minds of the president and his supporters, the post is all part of Mr. Trump’s chaotic negotiation style, intended to prompt an end to his self-inflicted conflict and persuade Tehran to open the strait. Some of the president’s advisers saw Mr. Trump’s escalating rhetoric as a negotiating tactic that suggested he was more interested in finding a way out of the war than following through with a devastating attack.

在总统及其支持者看来，这条帖子不过是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在结束这场他自己引发的冲突，并促使德黑兰开放海峡。总统的一些顾问认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更有兴趣找到一条结束战争的出路，而非真的发动毁灭性打击。

On Tuesday evening, Mr. Trump had toggled back to diplomat mode, announcing that he had agreed to a proposal by Pakistan that calls for a two-week cease-fire and the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

而到了周二晚间，特朗普又切换回外交模式，宣布已同意巴基斯坦提出的方案，即实施为期两周的停火，并立即开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The president said that the United States would work on finalizing an agreement with Iran. “It is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution,” he wrote.

总统表示，美国将着手敲定一项与伊朗的协议。“为这一长期问题即将得到解决而深感荣幸，”他写道。

Even for Mr. Trump, who has a long history of comments that fly far beyond the pale, his latest comments bear the mark of an impulsive leader who is used to getting his way through coercion and unpredictability, but who is not getting his way now.

即便是对一向言论出格的特朗普来说，他最近这些表态也带有一种冲动型领导人的鲜明印记，这种领导者习惯于通过胁迫和不可预测性来达到目的，但眼下这些手段却失灵了。

周一，特朗普在白宫的一场媒体吹风会上。

Alex Wellerstein, a historian who studies nuclear conflicts, said that even if Mr. Trump does not carry out the extent of his threat, the president’s violent rhetoric damages his credibility as a negotiator and his country’s standing in the world.

研究核冲突的历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦表示，即便特朗普最终没有把威胁落实到他说的那个程度，他这种充满暴力意味的言论也损害了他作为谈判者的信誉以及美国在世界上的地位。

“You’re talking about a world that largely increasingly sees the United States as unhinged and dangerous, and not a reliable partner,” he said, “where all of the countries that typically align with democracy and freedom are on the other side of the United States.”

“你面对的是一个越来越将美国视为失控、危险、不可靠伙伴的世界，”他说，“那些通常与民主和自由站在一起的国家现在都站在美国的对立面。”

Some of Mr. Trump’s most fervent supporters have joined the usual chorus of critics in recent days. Tucker Carlson, the right-wing podcaster, said that the president’s Easter message had “shattered” the holiest day on the Christian calendar.

近几天，特朗普一些最狂热的支持者也加入了批评者的队伍。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森表示，总统在复活节当天发布的那条信息“毁掉了”基督教日历上最神圣的一天。

“It is vile on every level,” Mr. Carlson said on his podcast. “It begins with a promise to use the U.S. military, our military, to destroy civilian infrastructure in another country, which is to say to commit a war crime, a moral crime against the people of the country, whose welfare, by the way, was one of the reasons we supposedly went into this war in the first place.”

“这在各个层面上都令人不齿，”卡尔森在自己的播客中说，“它以扬言动用美国军队——我们的军队——去摧毁另一个国家的民用基础设施开头，也就是说，去犯下战争罪，去对那个国家的民众犯下道德罪行。而顺便提一句，那些人的福祉，本是我们当初宣称加入这场战争的原因之一。”

The president responded by calling Mr. Carlson a “low I.Q. person,” and continuing on with his war. Ever a reality television producer, Mr. Trump is trying to program this war like he does everything else — through cliffhangers and wait-and-see diplomacy. As such, Mr. Trump created an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline Tuesday for Tehran to comply. Mr. Trump announced “a double sided CEASEFIRE” about 90 minutes before his self-imposed deadline.

总统则回应称卡尔森是个“脑子不灵光的人”，并继续推进他的战争。作为一名曾经的真人秀制片人，特朗普正试图像操控其他一切事务那样来操控这场战争——靠制造悬念和“走着瞧”式外交。因此，特朗普把美国东部时间周二晚上8点设为德黑兰必须服从的最后期限。就在这个由他自己设定的最后期限前大约90分钟，特朗普宣布达成了“一项双边停火协议”。

周一，德黑兰在空袭中受损的建筑。

Americans have seen versions of this playbook before: Mr. Trump makes increasingly escalatory threats, secures some semblance of a deal and walks away declaring victory. In January, Mr. Trump threatened to send in U.S. forces to capture the Danish territory of Greenland. He settled for an agreement to increase the number of American troops there.

美国人以前就见识过这种套路：特朗普不断升级威胁，最终达成某种形式的协议，然后转身宣布取得了胜利。今年1月，特朗普威胁要派美军占领丹麦领地格陵兰岛。他最终满足于达成一项增加美国驻军人数的协议。

With Iran, though, there is still little evidence that Mr. Trump is going to ultimately get what he wants. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for the Iranian military, has said that Iran would retaliate “crushingly and extensively” if its civilian infrastructure were attacked.

但在伊朗问题上，目前几乎没有证据表明特朗普最终能得到他想要的东西。伊朗军方发言人易卜拉欣·佐尔法加里表示，如果民用基础设施遭到攻击，伊朗将进行“毁灭性的、大规模的”报复。

Even with a cease-fire, Mr. Trump is far from achieving his larger strategic objectives.

即便达成了停火，特朗普距离实现他的更大战略目标仍相去甚远。

The president’s increasingly violent messaging betrays a degree of frustration that he has not gotten what he wanted after pushing back an earlier deadline to barrage the country’s infrastructure. His threats to level power plants and oil installations and bridges have seemed to have the opposite effect on some Iranians, who have formed human chains around points of infrastructure that support civilian life.

总统越来越暴力的言论暴露出某种程度的挫败感——在推翻了此前对伊朗基础设施进行打击的最后期限之后，他并没有得到自己想要的东西。他发出的摧毁发电厂、石油设施和桥梁的威胁，似乎在一些伊朗民众身上产生了相反的效果——他们在支撑民生的基础设施周围组成了人链。

Even some people who have supported Mr. Trump in the past see his strategy on Iran, to the extent that there is one, as damaging and dangerous.

甚至一些过去支持特朗普的人也认为，他在伊朗问题上的策略——如果说存在策略的话——是有害且危险的。

“Trump believes he is threatening Iran with destruction, but it is America that now stands in danger,” Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center who resigned in March, wrote on X. “If he attempts to eradicate Iranian civilization, the United States will no longer be viewed as a stabilizing force in the world, but as an agent of chaos — effectively ending our status as the world’s greatest superpower.”

“特朗普认为他是在用毁灭来威胁伊朗，但现在处于危险之中的反而是美国，”3月份辞职的国家反恐中心前主任乔·肯特在X上写道。“如果他试图消灭伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界上的稳定力量，而是混乱的根源——这实际上将终结我们作为世界头号超级大国的地位。”

Several Republicans in Congress, who are absent from Washington during a two-week recess, criticized the president’s rhetoric, although many of them have stayed mum.

在为期两周的休会期间离开华盛顿的多名国会共和党人批评了总统的言论，不过其中许多人仍保持沉默。

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a close ally of Mr. Trump’s, left room for the possibility that Mr. Trump was posturing: “I hope and pray that President Trump is just using this as bluster.”

威斯康星州参议员、特朗普的亲密盟友罗恩·约翰逊为特朗普是在虚张声势的可能性留出了空间：“我希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是把这当作恫吓。”

Mr. Trump’s message also alarmed top Democrats, who quickly promised to force another vote on a resolution to rein in the use of the military in Iran.

特朗普的言论也让民主党高层感到震惊，他们迅速表态，将推动再次就一项限制对伊朗动用军事力量的决议进行投票。

“This is an extremely sick person,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, wrote on X after Mr. Trump sent his threat. “Each Republican who refuses to join us in voting against this wanton war of choice owns every consequence of whatever the hell this is.”

“这是一个极其病态的人，”纽约州参议员、少数党领袖查克·舒默在特朗普发出威胁后于X平台上写道，“每一个拒绝与我们一起投票反对这场肆意妄为的选择性战争的共和党人，都要对这桩荒唐之举引发的一切后果承担责任。”

Other Democrats have called to remove Mr. Trump from office over his threats, with some calling for impeachment and others pointing to the 25th Amendment, which provides a process for a president to be stripped of power if he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

其他一些民主党人则呼吁因这些威胁将特朗普罢免，一些人主张弹劾，另一些人则援引第25修正案——该修正案规定，如果总统“无法履行其职权和职责”，可启动程序剥夺其权力。

They were joined by Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former Republican representative who has shifted from being one of Trump’s staunchest allies to being one of his most vocal detractors.

他们的呼声还得到了玛乔丽·泰勒·格林的呼应。这位前共和党众议员已从特朗普最坚定的盟友之一，转变为最直言不讳的批评者之一。

“25TH AMENDMENT!!!” she wrote on X. “Not a single bomb has dropped on America. We cannot kill an entire civilization. This is evil and madness.”

“第25修正案！！！”她在X平台上写道。“美国没有挨过一颗炸弹。我们不能消灭一整个文明。这是邪恶，也是疯狂。”

In the two and a half weeks before the United States began a major military campaign against Iran, a small circle of advisers gathered in the White House Situation Room for a series of pivotal meetings. Previously undisclosed details of that period drawn from reporting for a forthcoming book, “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump,” show how President Trump’s alignment with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and a lack of sustained opposition from all but one member of the president’s inner circle put the United States on a course to war.

在美国对伊朗发动大规模军事行动的两个半星期前，一小群顾问聚集在白宫战情室，参加了一系列关键会议。根据即将出版的新书《政权更迭：唐纳德·特朗普的帝王总统任期内幕》中一些此前未披露的细节可以看出：特朗普总统与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的立场高度一致，而总统核心圈子里除了一个人之外，几乎没有人持续反对，从而将美国推上了战争轨道。

Here are six takeaways from that reporting.

以下是该报道的六点主要内容。

Netanyahu made a detailed pitch for war to Trump and his team in the Situation Room.

内塔尼亚胡在战情室向特朗普及其团队详细提出了开战建议。

Sitting across from Mr. Trump in the Situation Room — a venue rarely used for in-person sessions with foreign leaders — Mr. Netanyahu made an hourlong presentation to the president and his top aides on Feb. 11. He argued that Iran was ripe for regime change and that a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign could bring down the Islamic Republic. At one point, he played a video that included a montage of figures who could lead Iran if the theocratic government fell. Among them was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah.

2月11日，内塔尼亚胡坐在特朗普对面——战情室极少用于与外国领导人的面对面会谈——向总统及其高级助手做了长达一小时的陈述。他认为伊朗已经具备政权更迭的条件，美以联合军事行动能够推翻伊斯兰共和国。在陈述中，他播放了一段视频，其中包括一系列如果神权政府倒台后可能领导伊朗的人物，流亡中的伊朗末代沙王之子礼萨·巴列维就在其列。

2月11日，在白宫等候内塔尼亚胡到来的记者。

The Israeli leader and his advisers laid out what they portrayed as near-certain victory: Iran’s missile program destroyed in weeks, the Strait of Hormuz kept open and minimal retaliation against American interests. Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, could help foment an uprising inside Iran to finish the job.

以色列领导人和他的顾问们描绘了一幅近乎必然胜利的图景：伊朗的导弹计划将在几周内被摧毁，霍尔木兹海峡保持开放，对美国利益的报复微乎其微。以色列情报机构摩萨德可以帮助在伊朗境内煽动起义，完成最后一击。

Mr. Trump’s response was swift and appeared approving to most in the room. Sounds good to me, he told the prime minister.

特朗普的回应迅速而明确，在房间里大多数人听来是赞成的。他对总理说：“我听着不错。”

U.S. intelligence officials called Netanyahu’s regime-change scenarios “farcical.”

美国情报官员称内塔尼亚胡的政权更迭方案“荒谬”。

U.S. analysts scrambled overnight to assess what Mr. Netanyahu had presented. Their conclusions, delivered the next day in another Situation Room meeting, were blunt.

美国分析人员连夜加班评估内塔尼亚胡提出的内容。第二天，他们在另一次战情室会议上给出了直率的结论。

The first two objectives laid out in the Israeli pitch — killing the ayatollah and crippling Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors — were achievable, U.S. intelligence officials concluded. The second two goals presented by Mr. Netanyahu and his team — a popular uprising inside Iran and the replacement of the Islamic government by a new secular leader — were not. The C.I.A. director, John Ratcliffe, used a single word to describe the regime-change scenarios: “farcical.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio translated, “In other words, it’s bullshit.”

美国情报官员认为，以色列方案中提出的前两个目标——杀死最高领袖并削弱伊朗威胁邻国的能力——是可以实现的。但内塔尼亚胡及其团队提出的后两个目标——在伊朗境内引发民众起义，并用新的世俗领导人取代伊斯兰政府——则无法实现。中情局局长约翰·拉特克利夫用一个词来形容这些政权更迭方案：“荒谬”。国务卿马可·鲁比奥对这个词做了一番翻译：“换句话说，就是胡扯。”

Mr. Trump absorbed the assessment — and moved past it. Regime change, he said, would be “their problem.” His interest in killing Iran’s top leaders and dismantling its military remained undimmed.

特朗普听取了这一评估——然后就把它抛在了脑后。他说，政权更迭“是他们的问题”。他消灭伊朗最高领导人、瓦解其军事力量的兴趣丝毫没有减弱。

Vice President JD Vance was the strongest opponent of the war — and the only one to make a forceful case against it.

副总统JD·万斯是这场战争最强烈的反对者——也是唯一一个提出有力反对意见的人。

Of everyone in Mr. Trump’s inner circle, Mr. Vance did the most to try to stop the march toward war. He had built his political career opposing precisely this kind of military adventurism, and he told colleagues that a regime-change war with Iran would be a disaster.

在特朗普的核心圈子里，万斯是为阻止战争做得最多的人。他的政治生涯正是建立在反对此类军事冒险的基础之上，他告诉同事，对伊朗发动政权更迭战争将是一场灾难。

副总统JD·万斯（左）与丹·凯恩在特朗普的国情咨文演讲开始前。副总统是特朗普核心圈子里唯一一位强烈反对发动战争的人。

In front of the president and his other advisers, Mr. Vance warned that the conflict could cause regional chaos and untold casualties, break apart the president’s political coalition, and be seen as a betrayal by voters who had supported the promise of no new wars. He stressed the depletion of U.S. munitions and the risk of outsized and unpredictable retaliation given that the regime’s survival was at stake. He also warned about the Strait of Hormuz and the likelihood of soaring gasoline prices.

在总统和其他顾问面前，万斯警告说，这场冲突可能导致地区混乱和大量伤亡，撕裂总统的政治联盟，并被那些支持“不打新战争”承诺的选民视为背叛。他强调了美国弹药储备的消耗，以及由于关乎政权存废，伊朗可能进行超大规模且不可预测的报复。他还警告了霍尔木兹海峡的问题，以及汽油价格可能暴涨的可能性。

His preference was for no strikes at all. But knowing Mr. Trump was likely to act, Mr. Vance tried to steer him toward more limited options. When that failed, he argued for overwhelming force to end things quickly. At the final meeting on Feb. 26, his message to the president was blunt: You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I’ll support you.

他原本倾向于完全不进行打击。但知道特朗普很可能采取行动后，万斯试图引导他选择更有限的选项。当这也失败后，他主张使用压倒性武力迅速结束战争。在2月26日的最后一次会议上，他对总统的表态很直白：“你知道我认为这是个坏主意，但如果你决定要做，我会支持你。”

Some Trump advisers had serious private concerns but deferred to the president.

一些特朗普顾问私下有严重担忧，但最终还是服从了总统。

The positions in the inner circle fell along a spectrum, but with one thing in common: Nobody other than Mr. Vance mounted a forceful argument to change Mr. Trump’s mind.

核心圈子里的立场各有不同，但有一个共同点：除了万斯，没有人采取过有力措施试图改变特朗普的决定。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the most enthusiastic. We’re going to have to take care of the Iranians eventually, so we might as well do it now, he told the group on Feb. 26, the day before Mr. Trump gave his final order. Mr. Rubio was more ambivalent — his preference was for continued maximum pressure rather than full-scale war — but he did not try to talk the president out of it. Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, worried about the United States being dragged into a conflict in the Middle East on the eve of midterm elections but did not see it as her role to share her concerns about a military decision in a large group setting with the president.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯是最积极的支持者。2月26日，也就是特朗普下达最终命令的前一天，他对团队说：“我们迟早得收拾伊朗人，不如现在就动手。”国务卿鲁比奥则更为矛盾——他更倾向于继续“最大限度施压”，而非全面战争，但他并没有试图说服总统放弃。白宫幕僚长苏西·威尔斯担心美国在中东卷入冲突会影响中期选举，但她认为自己不应该在大型会议上向总统表达对军事决定的担忧。

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had serious concerns about the war and persistently flagged risks: weapons depletion, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the difficulty of predicting Iran’s response. But he was so careful not to take a stand, repeating that it was not his role to tell the president what to do, that he could appear to some to argue all sides simultaneously. Mr. Trump, in turn, would often seem to hear only what he wanted to hear.

参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将对这场战争有严重顾虑，并持续指出各种风险：武器消耗、霍尔木兹海峡可能关闭、难以预测伊朗的反应。但他极为谨慎，从不明确表态，一直强调“告诉总统该做什么不是我的职责”，以至于在一些人看来他似乎同时在支持所有观点。特朗普则往往只听得进自己想听的内容。

Trump believed it would be a quick war, like in Venezuela.

特朗普相信这将是一场速战速决的战争，就像在委内瑞拉那样。

The president’s confidence that a conflict with Iran would be brief and decisive was deep-rooted and largely impervious to contrary evidence. He had been emboldened by Iran’s muted response to his bombing of its nuclear facilities in June and by the spectacular commando raid that had captured the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from his compound on Jan. 3, in which no American lives were lost.

总统坚信会和伊朗进行一场短暂而决定性的冲突，这种信心根深蒂固，且几乎不受反面证据影响。伊朗对6月美国轰炸其核设施一事没有激烈的反应，加上1月3日美军特战行动成功从官邸抓获委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗且无一名美国人丧生，进一步增强了他的信心。

今年1月，委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗被押送下直升机，前往曼哈顿的联邦法院。特朗普因那次惊天动地的突击行动成功抓获马杜罗而感到备受鼓舞。

When advisers raised the possibility that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz — a choke point for vast quantities of global oil and gas — Mr. Trump dismissed the possibility, assuming the regime would capitulate before it came to that. When told the campaign would significantly deplete American weapons stockpiles, including missile interceptors already strained by years of support for Ukraine and Israel, Mr. Trump appeared to weigh the warning against a more appealing data point: The United States had an essentially unlimited supply of cheap, precision-guided bombs.

当顾问们提出伊朗可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这一全球大量石油和天然气运输的咽喉要道——的可能性时，特朗普表达了不屑，认为伊朗政权会在事态发展到那一步之前就屈服。当被告知这场行动将大幅消耗美国武器库存，包括因长期支持乌克兰和以色列而已经捉襟见肘的导弹拦截系统时，特朗普似乎把这一警告与一个更吸引他的数据点进行了权衡：美国拥有几乎取之不竭的廉价精确制导炸弹。

When the anti-interventionist commentator Tucker Carlson privately asked Mr. Trump how he could be so sure everything would be OK, the president replied, “Because it always is.”

当反干预主义评论人士塔克·卡尔森私下问特朗普为何如此确信一切都会顺利时，总统回答：“因为一直都是这样。”

For Trump, it was a gut-driven decision enabled by an echo chamber that did not exist in his first term.

对特朗普来说，这是一个直觉驱使下的决定，而他身边已形成了一个在他第一任期并不存在的回音室。

Mr. Trump’s decision to take the country to war was not driven by intelligence assessments or a strategic consensus among his advisers, which did not exist. It was driven by instinct — the same instinct his team had watched produce improbable results again and again.

特朗普决定让国家走向战争并非基于情报评估或顾问团队的战略共识——这样的共识并不存在。它是由直觉驱动的——他的团队一次又一次见证这种直觉带来了原本不可想象的结果。

Unlike his first-term team, many of whom regarded him as a danger to be managed or obstructed, Mr. Trump in his second term is surrounded by advisers who view him as a great man of history. After his improbable comeback in 2024, after indictments and assassination attempts, and after ordering the flawless operation that captured Mr. Maduro in Venezuela, the people around Mr. Trump had developed an almost superstitious faith in his destiny and instincts, and in his power to will new realities into existence. In making this high-stakes and high-risk decision, almost everyone deferred to the president’s gut.

与第一任期团队不同，当时许多人认为他是个需要被管控或阻挠的危险人物，特朗普在第二任期身边围绕的顾问们视他为历史伟人。在2024年不可思议的东山再起之后，在经历多次起诉和暗杀未遂之后，在下令成功实施抓捕马杜罗的完美行动之后，特朗普身边的人对他命运、直觉以及他让现实屈服于自己意志的能力产生了近乎迷信的信仰。在这个高风险、高赌注的决定中，几乎所有人都服从了总统的直觉。

Surrounded by people trying to execute on Mr. Trump’s desires, and with so much having gone his way to that point, almost nothing stood between the instinct and the act.

身边都是努力执行特朗普意愿的人，而此前一切又都如此顺遂，几乎没有任何东西能阻挡他的直觉转化为行动。

特朗普在2月28日对伊朗发起军事行动后，于3月1日返回白宫。

President Trump said on Tuesday that he found a last-minute offramp allowing him to delay his threat to obliterate Iran’s power grid and bridges, seizing on a proposal from Pakistan for a 14-day cease-fire that would include opening the Strait of Hormuz while Washington and Tehran tried to negotiate a peace deal.

特朗普总统周二表示，他找到了一个最后关头的退路，得以推迟摧毁伊朗电网和桥梁的威胁。他采纳了巴基斯坦提出的一项14天停火提议，内容包括在华盛顿和德黑兰试图谈判达成和平协议期间开放霍尔木兹海峡。

In a statement, Mr. Trump declared that at the request of Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, he decided to “hold off the destructive force being sent to Iran tonight.”

特朗普在声明中宣布，应巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫的请求，他决定“暂缓今晚向伊朗发动的毁灭性打击力量”。

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, a veteran of past nuclear negotiations with the United States, said in a statement that if Israel and the United States halt their attacks, Iran will also suspend its “defensive operation” for two weeks. But he said “Iran’s Armed Forces” would retain control of the waterway. That would leave Iran in fundamental control of the passageway, and over the pace at which a huge backup of tankers would be allowed to deliver oil to Europe and Asia, helium to semiconductor plants around the world and fertilizer to farmers from Africa to Asia.

曾参与此前与美国核谈判的资深人士、伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在声明中表示，如果以色列和美国停止攻击，伊朗也将暂停其“防御行动”两周。但他称，“伊朗武装部队”将继续控制该水道。这意味着伊朗将从根本上掌握该通道，大量积压的油轮以什么样的速度向欧洲和亚洲输送石油、向全球半导体工厂输送氦气、向非洲及亚洲农户输送化肥，都将取决于伊朗。

For his part, Mr. Trump said the accord was “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” That suggested that Mr. Trump backed down before he heard from the leadership in Tehran, which until now has insisted it would open the waterway only if it had in hand a complete peace deal. Iran insisted that final agreement must include reparations for war damages and a complete lifting of Western sanctions on its economy.

特朗普则表示，该协议“以伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即、安全开放霍尔木兹海峡为前提”。这表明特朗普在收到德黑兰领导层回应之前就已做出让步，而伊朗此前一直坚持，只有拿到完整的和平协议才会开放水道。伊朗坚持，最终协议必须包括战争损失赔偿，以及全面解除西方对伊朗的经济制裁。

Left unresolved, at least for now, is the fate of 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium buried primarily at a site in Isfahan, or Mr. Trump’s demand that Iran limit the size and range of its now-depleted arsenal of missiles. And by reaching even a temporary cease-fire with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, he is essentially endorsing the legitimacy of its new government, five weeks after urging the Iranian people to overthrow it.

至少在目前，仍未解决的问题包括埋藏在伊朗伊斯法罕某处约440公斤的近武器级铀将如何处置，以及特朗普对伊朗导弹库规模与射程的限制要求（这个导弹库现已耗尽）。此外，哪怕与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队及其新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊只是达成临时停火，特朗普也等于在实际上承认了伊朗新政府的合法性——而就在五周前，他还在敦促伊朗民众推翻该政权。

Almost immediately the Iranians made claims that seemed to go far beyond anything the president said. Iran’s national security council, in a statement, said the country had been victorious over Israel and the United States, and maintained that the United States had accepted all of Iran’s peace plan, including guarantees not to attack Iran, and Iran’s control over the strait.

伊朗方面几乎立即发表了声明，其内容似乎远超总统所言。伊朗国家安全委员会在一份声明中称，伊朗已战胜以色列和美国，并坚称美国接受了伊朗的全部和平方案，包括不攻击伊朗的保证以及伊朗对海峡的控制权。

Mr. Trump had been under increasing pressure to find a way out of a confrontation after setting an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for the strait to open, and after declaring on social media early Tuesday that if he is defied, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” It was a classic example of Mr. Trump’s chaotic, high-pressure negotiating style, where he creates a crisis and then uses his leverage to strike a deal.

特朗普此前设定了美国东部时间晚8点为海峡开放最后期限，并于周二早些时候在社交媒体上宣称，他的要求若遭违抗，“今晚，整个文明将消亡，永不复返”。此后他面临越来越大的压力，需要找到化解对抗的出路。这是特朗普混乱、高压式谈判风格的典型例证——先制造危机，再利用自身筹码达成协议。

In this case Mr. Trump appeared desperate for a way to escape his own threats and rhetoric, and to engineer a Pakistani proposal that he would then sign on to. Just two days after calling the Iranian leadership “crazy bastards” and telling them they would soon be “living in hell,” he praised them on Tuesday as “a different, smarter, and less radicalized” class of leaders, predicting “something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

这一次，特朗普似乎急于摆脱自己放出的威胁和言论，促成一项由巴基斯坦提出、随后由他本人背书的方案。他曾说伊朗领导层是“疯狂的混蛋”，扬言他们很快将会“生活在地狱里”；两天后的周二，他却称赞对方是“不一样、更聪明、不那么激进”的领导层，并预测“可能会发生什么革命性的好事，谁知道呢？”

The temporary cease-fire does nothing to address the fundamental issues that led to the outbreak of the war on Feb. 28: Iran’s refusal to give up its stockpile of nuclear fuel; American and Israeli demands that it limit the size and range of its missile arsenal; and Iranian demands that it retain the right to enrich uranium and, more recently, for war reparations.

此次临时停火并未解决导致2月28日战争爆发的根本问题：伊朗拒绝放弃核燃料储备；美以要求伊朗限制导弹库规模与射程；伊朗则要求保留铀浓缩权利，且近期还提出战争赔偿要求。

But for the first time in nearly six weeks of intense fighting, it offers the possibility of resumed negotiations, and some respite for Iranians whose homes, factories and schools have been bombed and for Israelis who found their missile defenses could not guarantee their safety.

但这是近六周激烈冲突以来，双方首次有望重启谈判，也为家园、工厂和学校遭轰炸的伊朗民众，以及发现导弹防御系统无法保障自身安全的以色列民众带来了喘息空间。

The last-minute agreement was bound to relieve investors, and ease a growing crisis in Asia, where some nations are reliant on oil coming through the strait for 80 percent of their supplies. Once a cease-fire is in place, it would put an added burden on Mr. Trump to break it again, or allow Israel to do so.

这份最后时刻的协议势必会缓解投资者焦虑，并缓和亚洲日益加剧的危机——部分亚洲国家80%的石油供应依赖经霍尔木兹海峡运输。停火一旦生效，特朗普若再次破坏协议或默许以色列破坏协议，将面临更大压力。

But it also raises the possibility that the war will end — or at least come to an uneasy truce — without Mr. Trump having accomplished many of the goals he laid out.

但这也带来一种可能：这场战争或将结束——或至少达成不稳定的停火——而特朗普也并未实现他此前提出的诸多目标。

The nude women first appeared a century ago outside the ballroom, with the opening of the Cercle Sportif Français, the first building in Shanghai to introduce Art Deco design to a city that quickly became one of the world’s premier showcases of modern architecture.

一个世纪之前，随着法国总会开业，裸体女性雕塑首次出现在其舞厅之外，这是上海首座引入装饰艺术风格的建筑，而这座城市也迅速成为全球现代建筑的顶级展示窗口之一。

The nudes, molded in plaster on pillars at the top of a grand staircase, vanished after Mao Zedong’s conquest of China in 1949, hidden behind screens put up by prudish commissars scornful of what they saw as Shanghai’s shameful corruption by decadent imperialists.

这些以石膏塑造、位于主楼梯顶端立柱上的裸像，在1949年毛泽东夺取中国政权后便销声匿迹。保守的政治委员鄙视这些雕像，认为它们是上海被腐朽帝国主义玷污的耻辱象征，用屏风将它们彻底遮蔽起来。

They were still covered when I first visited Shanghai more than 45 years ago, but came back into view shortly afterward as a new leadership in Beijing, headed by Deng Xiaoping, pushed China to modernize by opening up to the world.

如今距我初次到访上海已有45年以上，当年这些雕像仍被遮盖；但不久后，随着以邓小平为首的新一届中央领导层推动中国向世界开放、实现现代化，这些雕像重见天日。

前法国总会内的石膏裸女像这家已停业的社交俱乐部现已成为花园酒店的一部分。

In Shanghai — China’s most cosmopolitan city, but also a hotbed of xenophobic politics during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution — the change of direction in the 1980s forced a rethink of history and its message for the future. While Shanghai embodied everything the Communist Party hated — capitalism and imperialism — it also showcased China’s early mastery of modern ways.

上海是中国最具国际化气质的城市，却也是1966年到1976年文革期间排外政治的温床。上世纪80年代的政策转向迫使人们重新审视历史及其对未来的启示。尽管上海体现了共产党所憎恶的一切——资本主义与帝国主义——但它也展现了中国早期对现代文明的驾驭。

“Shanghai was never a foreign city, just China’s most foreign-influenced and most modern city,” said Wu Jiang, a professor of architecture at Tongji University.

“上海从来不是一座外国城市，它只是中国受外国影响最深、最现代化的城市，”同济大学建筑学教授伍江说。

The city’s many different layers of architecture, culture and politics, however, have made it a difficult fit for the Communist Party’s preferred narrative of Chinese victimhood and Western sins, especially when it comes to deciding what stays and what goes.

然而，这座城市在建筑、文化与政治印记上的多重层次让它难以契合共产党偏好的中国受害论与西方有罪论叙事，尤其在保留什么、拆除什么的问题上。

Professor Wu, who served for five years as deputy director of Shanghai’s municipal planning bureau in the early 2000s, pushed to preserve old buildings that many in government saw as uncomfortable reminders of unwelcome foreign intrusions.

伍江在21世纪初曾担任上海市规划局副局长五年，他力主保护那些被许多政府官员视为外国入侵尴尬印记的老建筑。

“People kept asking me: ‘What are you doing? Why do you want to preserve all this imperialist culture?’” he said. “History does not depend on whether you like it or not. You can’t just get rid of everything that makes you feel bad.”

“总有人问我：‘你在做什么？为什么要保护这些帝国主义文化？’”他说。“历史不取决于你喜不喜欢。你不能把让你不舒服的东西全抹掉。”

He recalled initial resistance to any slowing of the frenzy of demolition that started in the 1990s to make way for the shopping malls and high-rise towers that now dominate the urban landscape.

他还记得，上世纪90年代开始，上海掀起拆迁狂潮，为如今遍布全城的商场与摩天大楼让路，当时，任何放缓拆除的提议都遭到了阻力。

Art Deco architectural jewels, preserved during the Mao era largely by economic stagnation, were suddenly under threat. Some survived, however, helped by a growing recognition of their value as an important part of Shanghai’s unique character — and of the role played by Chinese, not just foreigners, in creating them.

那些在毛泽东时代很大程度上因经济停滞而得以保存的装饰艺术建筑瑰宝突然陷入危机。不过，人们渐渐认识到，作为上海独特气质的重要组成部分，这些建筑极具价值，而且在它们的创造过程中，不仅是外国人，中国人也发挥了作用，就这样，其中一些建筑得以幸存下来。

“Some of Shanghai’s most iconic and creative Art Deco building were created by Chinese architects,” said Tina Kanagaratnam, a longtime Shanghai resident from Singapore and a founder of Historic Shanghai, an organization that has worked to safeguard the city’s architectural heritage.

“上海一些最具标志性、最富创意的装饰艺术建筑出自中国建筑师之手，”蒂娜·卡纳加拉特纳姆说。她是新加坡裔上海老居民，也是“上海旧踪”保护组织创始人之一，该组织长期致力于保护这座城市的建筑遗产。

The Majestic Theater, which has screened movies and hosted shows of Chinese opera and Western ballet since the 1940s, was designed by Robert Fan. The Yangtze Hotel, an Art Deco gem that hosted the city’s first all-Chinese jazz band in the 1930s and is now an upscale boutique hotel, was designed by Paul Li Pan.

美琪大戏院自上世纪40年代起放映电影、上演京剧与西方芭蕾，由范文照设计；扬子饭店则是一座装饰艺术精品，上世纪30年代有上海首支全华人爵士乐队演出，如今是高端精品酒店，设计者为李蟠。

扬子饭店是一座由中国设计师打造的装饰艺术风格瑰宝，上海第一支全华裔爵士乐队曾在此演出。

Westerners enjoyed immense privileges in foreign-run enclaves like the French Concession, site of the Cercle Sportif, a now-defunct social club. Seized by the state after the 1949 revolution, the property became an exclusive retreat for model workers and Communist Party functionaries. Mao used its swimming pool, since demolished, during his visits to Shanghai from Beijing. (Today the building is part of the Japanese, luxury Okura Garden Hotel.)

在法租界这样由外国人管理的飞地，西方人享有极大特权，法国总会便坐落于此——这家社交俱乐部现已不复存在。1949年革命后，该建筑被政府没收，成为劳动模范与共产党干部的专属疗养院。毛泽东从北京来沪时，曾使用过这里的游泳池（现已拆除）。如今，这栋建筑是日本奢华酒店花园饭店的一部分。

Foreigners, however, were always a minuscule minority. They accounted for only around 1 percent of the population of a city with around six million residents by the time Mao’s troops arrived. And most were far less wealthy than the Chinese tycoons who controlled some of Shanghai’s most lucrative textile factories, flour mills and banks. Chinese built and owned the four biggest department stores.

但外国人始终是极少数。毛泽东军队进驻时，上海约600万人口中，外国人仅占1%左右。他们当中大多数人的财富也远不及掌控上海最赚钱的纺织厂、面粉厂与银行的华商巨头。上海四大百货公司也均由中国人建造并拥有。

How to reconcile what Rao Shushi, an early leader of the municipal party apparatus, described as Shanghai’s pre-1949 role as “city of parasites” and “foreign adventurers,” with its role as a breeding ground for Chinese talent, entrepreneurial flair and creativity — and also the Chinese Communist Party — has been a long struggle.

早期市委领导人饶漱石曾将1949年之前的上海称为“寄生虫的城市”和“（外国）冒险家的乐园”， 如何将这样的角色与上海作为中国人才、企业家精神、创造力乃至中国共产党的摇篮这一角色相协调，长期以来都是一场艰难的博弈。

The city has two separate municipal public history museums, each telling a somewhat different story. The Shanghai Municipal History Museum at the base of the Oriental Pearl Tower, a tribute to modernity built in the 1990s, celebrates the city as a melting pot where “the merging of traditional Chinese cultural spirit and Western modern civilization made Shanghai a glamorous metropolis.”

上海有两座独立的市级历史博物馆，叙事各有侧重。位于东方明珠塔底层的上海城市历史发展陈列馆落成于上世纪90年代，以现代化为基调，赞颂上海是一座大熔炉，“传统中国文化精神与西方现代文明在此交融，造就了魅力四射的国际大都市”。

由一名中国法官和一名西方法官共同主持法庭审判的场景，这是上海租界地区曾采用的司法制度。

Also known as the Shanghai Urban History and Development Museum, it nods at the dire poverty and exploitation that afflicted parts of the Chinese population, but mostly avoids bombastic “patriotic” messaging. Citing an influx of foreign cigarettes as an example of how Westerners inadvertently spurred China’s economic development, one display explains that “foreign competition for the market compelled domestic industry to rise up with spirit to face the adversary.”

展馆虽提及部分中国民众曾深陷赤贫与被剥削的境遇，但整体避开了浮夸的“爱国主义”说教。一处展区以外国香烟涌入为例，说明西方人如何意外推动中国经济发展：“外货抢占市场，迫使国内工业振作精神，挺身应对挑战。”

Among those who thrived was Rong Zongjing, a flour magnate and cigarette producer whose former mansion, originally built by a German but extensively remodeled by an early 20th-century Chinese architect, has now been lavishly restored by the Italian luxury brand Prada. It is used for fashion shows and exhibitions, and has a chic cafe popular with young Chinese eager for a taste of what they imagine as the elegance of old Shanghai.

那个时代的佼佼者中就有面粉大王和烟草生产商荣宗敬。他的旧居最初由德国人建造，后经20世纪初一位中国建筑师大规模改建，如今被意大利奢侈品牌普拉达斥巨资修复。这里时常举办时装秀与展览，还有一家时髦咖啡馆，深受渴望感受老上海风情的中国年轻人青睐。

位于荣宗敬旧宅内的一家咖啡馆。这座昔日的豪宅现已由意大利奢侈品牌普拉达进行了修复。

The glamour of that era gets short shrift in the Shanghai History Museum, housed in the former Shanghai Race Club, once a bastion of foreign privilege next to the city’s long vanished hippodrome. Merged in 2017-18 with the Shanghai Revolutionary History Museum in response to an ideological tightening ordered by China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, this museum leans heavily into politics, decrying foreign misdeeds and the suffering of Chinese under foreign oppression.

而在上海市历史博物馆，那段黄金时代的魅力却被轻描淡写。这座博物馆位于原上海跑马总会大楼，那里毗邻上海早已消失的跑马场，曾是外国特权的象征。2017-2018年，为响应现任领导人习近平收紧意识形态的要求，该馆与上海革命历史博物馆合并，高度侧重政治色彩，痛斥外国的恶行与中国民众在外国压迫下的苦难。

That same reading of history suffuses a must-see stop on China’s Red Tourism trail — the French Concession building where Soviet agitators, Mao and a dozen other Chinese Communists met in 1921 to hold the Party’s founding national congress. The message hammered home here is that Shanghai “suffered greatly under the colonial yoke,” subjected to “plundering, imperialism and exploitation.”

同样的历史解读也贯穿中国“红色旅游” 路线上的必经之地——法租界的建筑群中。1921年，苏联鼓动者、毛泽东与其他十余名中国共产党人在此召开中国共产党的成立大会。这里反复强调的信息是：上海“在殖民枷锁下饱受苦难”，遭受“掠夺、帝国主义与剥削”。

上海市历史博物馆经过重新规划，使其更具“爱国主义”色彩，此举是为了响应中国现任领导人习近平下令加强意识形态管控的号召。一幅描绘1949年革命的画作。

Anti-foreign sentiment reached its peak in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution, when Red Guards ransacked the homes of residents suspected of harboring fondness for the old days. Any connection to the West — even possession of a piano or foreign books — invited beatings, sometimes to death.

在文化大革命期间，上海的反外国情绪达到了顶峰，红卫兵大肆抄查被怀疑思念旧时代的居民住宅。任何与西方有关的联系——哪怕只是拥有一架钢琴或几本外文书籍——都会招致殴打，有时甚至致死。

The trauma of that decade, however, does not feature in any of the city’s museums or exhibition halls. Red Guard slogans sometimes resurface, briefly, when bulldozers move in to demolish old buildings, dislodging layers of paint and plaster covering up now-taboo calls for merciless struggle against class enemies and imperialists.

但这十年的创伤在上海任何博物馆或展厅中都无迹可寻。推土机拆除老建筑时，偶尔会短暂露出红卫兵标语——随着覆盖在墙上的油漆与石膏层层剥落，那些号召无情打倒阶级敌人与帝国主义、如今已被视为禁忌的口号便得以短暂地重见天日。

描绘这座城市不同历史时期场景的壁画，装饰着这个已人去楼空、静待重新开发的街区的建筑。一个计划进行再开发的旧城区。

Wang Hongwen, a radical textile worker elevated to the rank of China’s vice chairman by Mao during the Cultural Revolution, is never mentioned, despite his being Shanghai’s most prominent representative in the national leadership for years. His former workplace, the Shanghai No. 17 Cotton Textile Mill, a center of Cultural Revolution fervor, has been redeveloped and became the Shanghai Fashion Center, an outlet mall.

王洪文曾是一位激进的纺织工人，文革期间被毛泽东提拔为国家副主席，尽管多年来他是上海在中央领导层最显赫的代表，却从未被提及。他工作过的上海第十七棉纺织厂曾是文革狂热的中心，如今已被改造为上海国际时尚中心，一家品牌折扣购物中心。

With China’s economy cooling amid a prolonged property crisis, the frenzied destruction of Shanghai’s past has slowed. The city government also put a brake on willy-nilly demolition by drawing up a long list of protected heritage sites.

随着中国经济在长期地产危机中降温，上海疯狂摧毁历史的步伐也已放缓。市政府也列出一长串受保护遗产名录，叫停了随意拆除行为。

A big problem today, Professor Wu said, is the decay of districts slated for redevelopment during boom years but which, emptied of residents to make way for bulldozers, are crumbling because developers ran out of money. “Slow decay is sometimes worse than demolition,” he said.

伍江说，如今最大的问题是：繁荣期被划入拆迁范围的街区，居民已被清空，建筑等待被推平，却因开发商资金链断裂而日渐破败。“缓慢的腐朽有时比直接拆除更糟，”他说。

China dominates the global drone industry. But it is fast becoming one of the toughest places to fly one.

中国在全球无人机行业占据绝对主导地位，如今却正迅速成为全球无人机飞行管控最严格的地区之一。

New regulations are sharply tightening rules for recreational and civilian operators. Since January, officials have ramped up the penalties for unauthorized flying of drones to include possible jail time. Starting in May, all drones must be registered with the owners’ real names, requiring operators to link their flight equipment to their official identification or cellphone number.

新出台的规定大幅收紧了针对娱乐及民用无人机操作者的规定。自今年1月起，官方加大了对违规无人机飞行为的处罚力度，处罚措施中甚至包括可能的监禁。从5月开始，所有无人机必须完成所有者实名注册，操作者需将飞行设备与本人官方身份证件或手机号码绑定。

Permits will be required at least a day in advance in restricted zones, which cover most cities. The rules make an exception for small drones flying below 400 feet in some open areas, but those areas are very limited.

覆盖国内绝大多数城市的管控区域内，飞行活动需至少提前一天申请许可。新规仅对部分开放区域内、飞行高度在120米以下的小型无人机设置了许可条款，但这类合规区域极为有限。

Flight data will also be transmitted to the government in real time.

无人机的飞行数据也将实时同步至政府。

Last week, the city government in Beijing went a step further, adopting a near-total ban on drones within the capital’s limits. Under the rules, also set to go into effect in May, drones or their key components may not be sold, rented or brought into Beijing. People entering the city from other provinces will have their bags inspected.

上周，北京市政府进一步加码，在首都范围内实施了近乎全面的无人机禁令。这项同样将于5月正式生效的新规明确，严禁在京销售、出租无人机及其核心零部件，也不得将相关物品带入北京。外省市人员进京时，行李将接受专项检查。

Existing drone owners will be exempt if they register their drones with the police by April 30, though they are also prohibited from having more than three drones at the same address. Drones for special functions, like counterterrorism and research, may be granted exceptions.

现有无人机持有者若在4月30日前向公安机关完成实名登记，可获得合规豁免，但同一地址名下登记的无人机不得超过三架。反恐、科研等特殊用途的无人机，可依规申请许可。

去年在中国南部珠海举办的国际航空展，一个无人机展位。根据新规，用于反恐和科研等特殊用途的无人机可获许可。

China has required drones to be registered and limited to certain areas since 2024. But as the crackdown has escalated in recent months, many drone users say overzealous enforcement has grounded most flights, even for what they believe are legitimate uses. Chinese social media platforms are filled with accounts of users being questioned, fined, detained and having their drones confiscated by the police across the country.

中国自2024年起就已要求无人机完成注册，并限定了合规飞行区域。但近几个月来，随着管控力度持续升级，许多无人机使用者表示，过度严格的执法让绝大多数飞行活动都无法开展，即便是他们认为属于合法用途的情况也不例外。中国各个社交媒体平台上充斥着全国各地用户被警方问询、罚款、拘留，以及无人机被没收的相关描述。

The crackdown has prompted a meme on Douyin, TikTok’s Chinese sister app, featuring a parody of a marketing slogan by the Chinese drone giant DJI — “Don’t let the sky wait too long” — recast as “Don’t let the police wait too long.” A clip featuring the track has been liked and shared more than 60,000 times.

这场严管风潮还催生了抖音上的热门梗：中国无人机巨头大疆的品牌广告语“别让天空等太久”，被网友改编成了“别让（警察）叔叔等太久”。相关配乐视频的点赞和转发量已超6万次。

As of the end of 2025, China had more than three million registered drones, according to official statistics, a 50 percent increase from 2024.

官方统计数据显示，截至2025年底，中国登记在册的无人机数量已超300万架，较2024年增长50%。

The Ministry of Public Security said that tighter regulations were necessary to protect public safety, noting the risks of drone information systems being hacked as well as incidents in which drones had flown at a high altitude, even threatening civil aviation safety. It cited a case in which it said an operator had flown a drone within 800 meters, or about 2,600 feet, of a civil aircraft, and another in which it said a user had flown a drone into a no-fly zone near an airport to film planes’ landing paths. Last year, two drones collided midair and crashed onto a Shanghai skyscraper.

公安部表示，出台更严格的监管规定是保障公共安全的必要举措，并指出无人机信息系统遭黑客攻击的风险，列举了无人机在高空飞行甚至威胁民用航空安全的事件。案例包括一名操作者操控无人机飞至距民航客机不足800米的范围内；另一个案例中，使用者操控无人机闯入机场附近的禁飞区，拍摄飞机降落航线。去年，上海还曾发生两架无人机空中相撞、最终坠落在一栋摩天大楼上的事故。

“The skies are not above the law,” the ministry said.

公安部表示：“天空不是法外之地。”

去年广州某工厂内的一条电动飞行汽车装配线。中国在全球无人机行业占据主导地位。

Officials also said the rules would help pave the way for China’s “low-altitude economy,” the term the government has used for its plans to expand commercial drone usage for purposes including food delivery, power line maintenance and farming. Those plans were highlighted in China’s latest five-year plan, the Communist Party’s economic road map.

官方同时表示，新规将为中国的“低空经济”发展铺平道路。这是政府关于扩大商用无人机应用计划的术语，应用领域包括食品配送、输电线路维护和农业。相关发展规划已被纳入中国最新的五年规划，该规划是中共的国家经济发展蓝图。

Because the government wants to maximize the economic potential of low-altitude airspace, it must first create a better management system for that space, said Li Mo, the director of the Low-Altitude Economy Research Center at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

香港科技大学低空经济研究中心主任李默表示，政府要最大化低空空域的经济潜力，首先必须为这片空域建立更完善的管理制度。

“Much like tidying the living room before hosting guests, we need to first put the airspace in order before embracing larger-scale, low-altitude economy activities,” he said, though he acknowledged that the restrictions could cause short-term confusion.

“这就像招待客人前先要收拾好客厅，我们需要先理顺空域管理秩序，才能迎接更大规模的低空经济活动，”他同时也承认，这些限制措施短期内可能会引发一定的行业混乱。

China may also be weighing potential national security risks. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have made clear the damage that even inexpensive drones can do.

中国此举或许也在权衡潜在的国家安全风险。乌克兰与伊朗的战事已经清晰表明，即便是价格低廉的无人机也能造成巨大的破坏。

The effectiveness of consumer drones in Ukraine to conduct surveillance and strikes “undoubtedly raises concerns in Beijing about this risk to the physical security of its senior leaders,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official who is now a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

前美国国防部官员、现任拉惹勒南国际研究院高级研究员德鲁·汤普森表示，消费级无人机在乌克兰战场上执行侦察与打击任务，这样的实战效果“无疑让北京对高层领导人的此类人身安全风险产生了担忧”。

(China, as the world’s largest consumer drone manufacturer, has also been a major supplier of drones or their components used in those conflicts. Beijing says that it strictly controls the export of so-called dual-use objects like drones that can be used militarily, but Ukrainian officials say Chinese companies have cut them off while still supplying Russia.)

（作为全球最大的消费级无人机生产国，中国也是上述冲突中所使用的无人机及其零部件的主要供应方。北京表示，对无人机等可用于军事用途的所谓两用物资实施严格出口管控，但乌克兰官员称，中国企业已切断了对乌供应，却仍在向俄罗斯供货。）

去年，乌克兰中部，一群戴着口罩以掩饰身份的乌克兰平民正在组装无人机。乌克兰和伊朗的战争清楚地表明，即便是廉价的无人机也能造成巨大破坏。

As the crackdown widens, a dozen drone users reached by The New York Times said the rules were hindering routine and lawful flights. Most agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity for fear of harassment from the police.

随着管控范围不断扩大，《纽约时报》联系到的十余名无人机使用者均表示，新规阻碍了他们日常的合法飞行活动。由于担心遭到警方滋扰，大多数人同意接受采访的前提是保持匿名。

Cat Yang, a Shanghai resident, said she received preliminary approval from the city government for her school-age son to fly a drone, but she was denied final clearance on the day of the flight. She said the police had offered no explanation. “The police even made fun of me, telling us to buy a toy instead,” Ms. Yang said.

上海居民凯特·杨（音）表示，她此前为学龄期的儿子申请无人机飞行已获得上海市政府的初步批准，在飞行当日，最终许可却被驳回。她称警方未给出任何解释。“警察甚至还取笑我，让我们去买个玩具代替，”杨女士说。

Another drone owner, from northern China, said that he had submitted more than three dozen applications, but that only two were approved.

另一位来自中国北方的无人机持有者表示，他累计提交了30余份飞行申请，最终仅两份获批。

Those approvals were limited to flights below 30 feet and within line of sight. He said the authorities had told him to obtain additional consent from a military airport they said was in the vicinity. When he tried to call the airport, no one answered.

即便是这两份获批的申请也仅限在10米以下、视距范围内飞行。他称，相关部门要求他从据称位于附近的某军事机场获得额外许可，可当他致电该机场时，始终无人接听。

In Beijing, two residents said they received calls from the police as soon as they powered on their drones, even before the city’s new rules were announced. Another said officers had come to their home to ask about drones they had not flown in years.

在北京，有两名居民表示，甚至在本市新规发布前，他们刚一启动无人机，就接到了警方的电话。还有一位居民称，警察上门询问了他已经数年没有飞过的无人机的情况。

The rules have chilled the market. Multiple drone dealers have told Chinese media that their business has fallen precipitously in recent months, while online listings for used drones have surged.

新规给无人机市场浇了一盆冷水。多家无人机经销商向中国媒体表示，近几个月他们的业务量急剧下滑，二手无人机的线上挂牌量则大幅暴涨。

DJI, the world’s biggest drone manufacturer, is also facing pressure abroad. The United States moved in December to ban foreign-made drones on national security grounds, barring new DJI products from the market. DJI responded with a lawsuit in February, seeking to overturn the decision. (The company did not return a request for comment.)

全球最大的无人机制造商大疆在海外也面临着巨大压力。去年12月，美国以国家安全为由采取行动，禁止进口外国制造的无人机，禁止大疆新品进入美国市场。今年2月，大疆提起诉讼，寻求推翻这一禁令。（该公司未回应置评请求。）

北卡罗来纳州希科里一处农场里的一架大疆无人机。大疆新款机型将不在美国销售。

Some experts have called for more flexibility. The chairman of Xpeng, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer that is investing in flying cars, recently proposed delegating some airspace management to regions, rather than the central government, to better stimulate the low-altitude economy.

部分专家呼吁采取更灵活的政策。正投资研发飞行汽车领域的中国电动汽车企业小鹏汽车董事长，近期提议将部分空域管理权下放至地方，而非由中央政府统一管控，以此更好地推动低空经济的发展。

In an online video, Wang Yadi, the president of a drone-related business group in Huainan, a city in Anhui Province, noted the conundrum facing the industry: “We haven’t developed the low-altitude economy yet, but already the sky is locked up.”

安徽淮南市一家无人机相关行业协会的会长王亚迪（音）在一段网络视频中点出了行业面临的核心困局：“低空经济还没发展起来，天空先被锁死了。”

A 35-year-old drone enthusiast based in northeastern China said he had invested about $2,000 in his DJI drone and related equipment, hoping to start a photography business. But after more than two dozen flight applications were rejected, he abandoned the plan.

一位居住在中国东北地区的35岁无人机爱好者表示，他为大疆无人机及相关配套设备投入了约14000元，希望以此开展摄影业务。但在20多次飞行申请接连被驳回后，他彻底放弃了这个计划。

Song Zhongping, an independent military commentator in China, offered a different argument for why the government should loosen up: Expanding access to drones would help nurture a reserve of drone operators for future wars.

中国独立军事评论员宋忠平则从另一个角度论证政府放宽管控的必要性：扩大无人机的民用普及范围有助于为未来战争储备无人机操作人才。

“If ordinary people can use drones and practice using them in peacetime, that will greatly help in selecting more skilled drone operators during critical moments,” he said.

“如果普通人在和平时期就能使用无人机，进行操作练习，这将极大有助于在关键时刻选拔出更熟练的无人机操作员，”他说。

The two crew members ejected from their fighter jet just seconds after it was hit by Iranian fire. The F-15E Strike Eagle, the first fighter jet lost to enemy fire in the war, crashed violently to the ground.

两名机组成员在战斗机被伊朗击中几秒钟后弹射出舱。作为第一架在战争中被敌方火力击落的战斗机，这架F-15E打击鹰急速坠向地面。

The Air Force officers were deep in hostile territory on Friday morning, alone and armed only with pistols. The plane’s pilot was in “constant communication” with his unit and rescued about six hours later by a force that included attack planes and helicopters that came under heavy fire, military officials said.

周五上午，这两名仅佩戴了手枪的空军军官身处敌方领土深处，孤立无援。军方官员表示，飞行员与部队保持了“持续通信”，约六小时后被一支包括攻击机和直升机的救援力量救出，该救援力量遭到了猛烈火力攻击。

But the aircraft’s weapons systems officer was missing. In the chaos of the ejection — a violent, lifesaving maneuver — he had become separated from the pilot, setting off a vast search that became the primary focus for the U.S. military troops and C.I.A. officers across the entire theater for two days.

但该机的武器系统官失踪了。因弹射——一种剧烈的救生机动措施——而起的混乱导致他与飞行员分处两地，从而引发了一场大规模搜救行动，在接下来的两天里，这成为整个战区美军部队和中央情报局官员的首要任务。

This account of the weapons officer’s fight for survival and rescue is based on interviews with about a dozen current and former military and administration officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive operation.

这篇关于武器系统官求生与救援的叙述基于对约十几名现任和前任军方及政府官员的采访，他们要求匿名以讨论这项敏感行动。

Surveillance planes and drones combed the area near where the plane had crashed but could not find the weapons officer or any signs that he was alive, a military official briefed on the rescue said.

军方官员表示，监视飞机和无人机搜寻了飞机坠毁地点附近区域，但未能找到武器系统官或任何他还活着的迹象。

The military described him as “status unknown,” the official said.

该官员说，军方对他的情况判断为“状态未知”。

On the ground in Iran, the downed officer’s mission boiled down to two words: evasion and survival. Surrounded by potential enemies, he hiked up a 7,000-foot ridgeline and wedged himself into a crevice where he hoped he would be safe until American forces found him, U.S. military officials said.

在伊朗地面上，这名坠机军官的任务归根结底就是两个词：规避与生存。美国军方官员表示，面对被敌人包围的可能性，他爬上了一条7000英尺的山脊，挤进一条裂缝，希望在那里安全待到美军找到他。

U.S. Central Command was preparing a statement that the plane had gone down and the pilot had been rescued.

美国中央司令部正准备发表一份声明，称飞机已坠毁，飞行员已被救出。

But just as they were about to release the statement — about 14 hours after the fighter jet was hit — U.S. officials got a lock on the weapons officer’s location via a beacon he was carrying. Air Force fighter pilots and weapons officers are equipped with beacons and secure communications devices for coordinating with their rescuers. But they are trained not to signal their location constantly and to restrict use of the beacon, which can be spotted by the enemy, military officials said.

但就在他们即将发布声明之际——战斗机被击中约14小时后——美国官员通过武器系统官携带的信标锁定了他的位置。空军飞行员和武器系统官都配备了信标和安全通信设备，用于与救援人员协调。但军方官员表示，他们受训不会持续发出信号，并限制使用信标，因为信标可能被敌人发现。

Central Command officials immediately scrapped the statement they were preparing to release. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called President Trump and told him that as long as there was a chance that they could find the weapons officer, they needed to keep information about the pilot’s rescue secret.

中央司令部官员立即取消了他们正在准备发布的声明。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯致电特朗普总统，告诉他只要还有找到武器系统官的机会，他们就需要对飞行员已被救出的信息保密。

Iran had launched several search parties, one of which had assembled at the base of the mountain where the weapons officer was hiding. For the Iranians, the downed Air Force colonel was a powerful asset they could use as leverage in high-stakes negotiations with the United States.

伊朗已派出几支搜索队，其中一支已在武器系统官藏身的山脚下集结。对伊朗人来说，这名坠机的空军上校在他们与美国的重要谈判中将发挥巨大的作用。

For the U.S. military, which lives by the mantra of “no man left behind,” finding the downed officer was a moral imperative.

对于秉持“绝不抛弃任何人”信条的美国军方来说，找到坠机军官是一项道德义务。

Battered by the force from his ejection, the weapons officer waited. He knew that both U.S. and Iranian forces were racing to find him.

因弹射受伤的武器系统官在等待。他知道美国和伊朗部队都在争相寻找他。

A military official described the weapons officer’s signaling as intermittent. The first task for the military was making sure that the person signaling was the weapons officer and not someone in Iran who had found his equipment.

一名军方官员描述该武器系统官的信号是间歇性的。军方的首要任务是确认发出信号的人是武器系统官，而不是伊朗人找到了他的装备。

On Saturday morning, Mr. Trump was escalating his threats against Iran, vowing to blow up the country’s electrical infrastructure unless its leaders opened the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. “Time is running out — 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.

周六上午，特朗普正在升级他对伊朗的威胁，誓言除非伊朗领导人向所有交通开放霍尔木兹海峡，否则将摧毁该国的电力基础设施。特朗普在社交媒体上写道：“时间不多了——48小时后，地狱将降临在他们头上。”

At that moment, U.S. military officials were in the final stages of preparing a vast and complex rescue mission that involved about 100 Special Operations forces, led by elements of SEAL Team 6, with Delta Force commandos and Army Rangers on standby if needed. A far larger conventional force made up of helicopters, surveillance planes, fighters and aerial tankers was readied to provide support.

此时，美国军方官员正处于一项庞大而复杂的救援行动的最后筹备阶段，该行动涉及约100名特种作战部队人员，由海豹突击队第六分队主导，三角洲部队突击队员和陆军游骑兵待命，必要时提供支援。一支规模比这大得多的常规部队——包括直升机、监视飞机、战斗机和空中加油机——已做好支援准备。

A U.S. military official said it took hours to get the weapons officer’s location and determine that it was him. Military officials were assisted by the C.I.A., which used a special piece of technology unique to the agency to locate the airman hiding in the mountain crevice and confirm his identity. U.S. and Israeli officials gathered intelligence to determine if the airman was alone, surrounded by Iranians or had been captured.

一名美国军方官员表示，确定武器系统官的位置并确认是他的过程花了几个小时。军方官员得到了中央情报局的协助，该机构使用一项其独有的特殊技术，定位了藏在山体裂缝中的武器系统官，并确认了他的身份。美国和以色列官员收集情报，以判断他是独自一人，还是已被伊朗人包围或俘虏。

Once they determined the airman was alone, senior military officials waited until dark to launch a rescue mission. Special Operations helicopters, loaded with commandos, raced to the remote mountain site where he was waiting.

确定独自一人后，高级军方官员等到天黑才发起救援行动。满载突击队员的特种作战直升机迅速赶往他等待的偏远山地地点。

A senior U.S. official described the rescue mission as one of the most challenging and complex in the history of U.S. Special Operations. The commandos had to contend with the mountainous terrain, the Iranian forces that they assumed would rush to attack them and the injured airman’s health, which remained uncertain.

一名美国高级官员将此次救援行动描述为美国特种作战历史上最挑战和最复杂的行动之一。突击队员必须应对山区地形、预计会冲过来攻击他们的伊朗部队，以及伤者不确定的健康状况。

As the commandos landed on the objective, U.S. and Israeli warplanes dropped bombs whose bright orange blasts lit up the silhouettes of the surrounding mountains. From his hiding place, the weapons officer alerted his rescuers to the areas they should target for strikes, where he could see Iranians advancing, one senior military official said. The commandos fired their weapons ferociously to keep any Iranians in the area from advancing toward them.

当突击队员降落在目标地点时，美国和以色列战机投下炸弹，亮橙色的爆炸照亮了周围山脉的轮廓。一名高级军方官员表示，武器系统官从藏身处向救援人员发出警报，指出他们应该打击的区域，他能看到伊朗人正在推进。突击队员猛烈开火，以阻止该区域任何伊朗人向他们靠近。

But they did not engage in a firefight with enemy forces. U.S. officials described the territory where the airman was hiding as strongly opposed to the Iranian regime and said it was unclear how close Iranian forces ever got to the site.

但他们并未与敌方部队发生交火。美国官员述称，这位空军人员的藏身地位于一个强烈反对现政权的地区，并表示不清楚伊朗部队究竟离该地点有多近。

He was rushed to a helicopter that whisked him off to a sandy, austere airstrip inside Iran that Special Operations forces had previously developed for possible rescues or other contingencies.

他被迅速送上一架直升机，带到伊朗境内一个沙地的简易机场，该机场是特种作战部队此前为可能进行的救援或其他应急情况而修建的。

The plan was to immediately load the airman and the rescue force onto two C-130 aircraft that were supposed to carry them out of danger to an airfield in Kuwait. But, in a final twist, the nose gear of at least one, and possibly both, of those planes got stuck in the sandy dirt at the airstrip, military officials said.

原计划是立即将获救人员和救援部队装上两架C-130飞机，将他们带离危险区域，前往科威特的一个机场。但军方官员表示，最后出现意外，至少一架、可能两架飞机的前起落架卡在了机场的沙土中。

Eventually the commandos and the injured weapons system operator were reloaded onto three newly arrived replacement aircraft. After the rescue team left, American warplanes bombed the two disabled planes and four MH-6 Special Operations helicopters rather than let them fall into Iranian hands.

最终，突击队员和受伤的武器系统操作员转而登上三架新抵达的替换飞机。在救援队离开后，美国战机轰炸了那两架无法使用的飞机和四架MH-6特种作战直升机，以免它们落入伊朗手中。

As the sun was rising, the three planes launched in succession from the remote airstrip. The plane carrying the rescued airman went first followed by the others.

太阳升起时，三架飞机从偏远机场相继起飞。载有获救人员的飞机率先出发，其余跟进。

When word reached the White House that the aircraft had cleared Iranian airspace, Mr. Trump announced the mission’s success.

白宫收到飞机已离开伊朗领空的消息后，特朗普宣布任务成功。

“WE GOT HIM!,” Mr. Trump exclaimed in a social media post a few minutes after midnight in Washington. “This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour.”

“我们找到他了！”特朗普在华盛顿午夜过后几分钟在社交媒体帖子中惊呼。“这名勇敢的战士在伊朗险恶的山区敌后，被我们的敌人追捕，他们正一点点向他逼近。”

The rescued officer had “sustained injuries,” Mr. Trump wrote, but would be “just fine.”

特朗普写道，获救军官“受了伤”，但他“会没事的”。

All of the commandos were safe and accounted for. There were no U.S. casualties.

所有突击队员都安全无恙。没有美国人员伤亡。

伊朗国家电视台分享的一张图片，声称显示了在伊朗境内寻找一名被困空军人员的任务中被摧毁的美军飞机。

The moment of celebration seemed to pass quickly for Mr. Trump, who on Easter Sunday morning returned to the reality of an unpopular war for which he seemed to have no clear exit strategy. The airman was safe, but the Strait of Hormuz was still in Iranian control, imperiling as much as 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and the global economy.

对特朗普来说，庆祝的时刻似乎很快过去，周日复活节上午，他又回到了现实：一场不受欢迎的战争，而他似乎没有明确的退出策略。武器系统官安全了，但霍尔木兹海峡仍处于伊朗控制之下，危及全球多达20%的石油供应和全球经济。

Mr. Trump had tried bullying America’s allies in Europe and Asia to come to his aid, but his entreaties were ignored.

特朗普曾试图胁迫欧洲和亚洲的美国盟友前来援助，但他的请求遭到无视。

So he threatened Iran’s leaders in an angry and profane social media message.

于是他在一条愤怒且粗俗的社交媒体信息中威胁伊朗领导人。

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

“周二是伊朗的发电厂日和桥梁日，打包到一起了。前所未有！！！”特朗普写道，“打开他妈的海峡，你们这些狗杂种，否则你们将活在地狱里——等着瞧吧！赞美安拉。唐纳德·J·特朗普总统。”

Zhang Xuefeng became famous in China for telling students and their parents what few educators would: which majors were useless, which careers were dead ends and which dreams ordinary families could not afford.

张雪峰之所以在中国走红，是因为他敢于将大多数教育工作者不愿提及的真相告诉学生和家长：哪些专业没用，哪些职业没有前途，以及哪些梦想是普通家庭负担不起的。

“Knock out your children if they want to study journalism,” he famously said.

他说过这样一句广为流传的话：“孩子非要报新闻学，我一定会把他打晕。”

“The humanities all lead to service work, and service work, in one word, is sucking up” to clients.

他还说过：“所有的文科专业都叫服务业，总结成一个字儿，就是‘舔’。”

Critics accused him of reducing education to employability, peddling social Darwinism and teaching students from humble backgrounds to accept the limits of their place.

批评者指责他把教育矮化为就业工具，兜售社会达尔文主义，并教导出身普通的学生接受自身阶层的局限。

But when Mr. Zhang died last month, at 41, something uncommon in today’s China happened. In a country where large-scale, spontaneous public emotion is rarely tolerated, tens of thousands of people from all over the country showed up at his memorial service in the eastern city of Suzhou. They stood in line for hours to pay their respects, some carrying flowers, one clutching a college admission letter. On the Chinese internet, posts and videos about Mr. Zhang and his death drew more than six billion views in a single day, according to a media monitoring firm.

但上个月年仅41岁的张雪峰去世后，当代中国罕见的一幕出现了。在这个通常不允许大规模自发表达公共情绪的国家，来自全国各地的数万人涌向东部城市苏州，参加他的追悼会。他们排队数小时表达哀思，有人手持鲜花，有人紧握大学录取通知书。据一家媒体监测机构的数据，在中国互联网上，关于张雪峰及其去世的帖子和视频在一天之内的浏览量超过了60亿次。

Online, admirers called him a hero, a savior of underprivileged families and even Prometheus.

在网络上，仰慕者称他为英雄、底层家庭的拯救者，甚至是普罗米修斯。

The gratitude directed at Mr. Zhang, who had 27 million followers on the short-video platform Douyin, reflected the fears of ordinary Chinese families trying to navigate an increasingly opaque and unforgiving education system. The extraordinary mourning after his death revealed how much of contemporary China is living with that anxiety.

人们对张雪峰的感激之情（他在短视频平台抖音上拥有2700万粉丝）反映了许多中国普通家庭在面对一个日益封闭、严苛的教育体系时的内心恐惧。他去世后引发的超乎寻常的哀悼恰恰说明了这种焦虑在当代中国有多普遍。

Students and parents thanked him for helping them navigate the high-stakes process of choosing a college major in China. Through livestreams and consulting sessions, he explained which majors led to stable jobs, which industries were declining and which professional certificates were worth pursuing — information readily available to families with connections or advanced education but far harder for everyone else to find.

学生和家长感谢他帮助他们在决定命运的高考志愿选择过程中找到方向。通过直播和咨询，他解释了哪些专业能带来稳定的工作，哪些行业在走下坡路，哪些职业资格证书值得去考——这些信息对于有关系或受教育程度较高的家庭来说唾手可得，但对于其他人来说却难以获取。

The public mourning was by no means an organized protest, but it carried an unmistakable social charge. It was a quiet rebuke to a system that many ordinary families experience as punishing and indifferent to their struggles. The censorship that followed suggested that the authorities recognized this, too. Some posts, videos and hashtags related to Mr. Zhang’s death and funeral were censored across Chinese social media.

这场公众哀悼绝非有组织的抗议，但它无疑承载着一种社会情绪。这是一种无声的谴责，在许多普通家庭看来，这个体系冷酷又傲慢，对他们的困境漠不关心。随之而来的审查举动表明，当局也意识到了这点。与张雪峰的去世和葬礼相关的一些帖子、视频和话题标签在中国的社交媒体上消失了。

2017年，张雪峰给大学生做讲座。对于正在选择大学专业的学生，他的建议直截了当，毫不客气。

Mr. Zhang spoke to a huge constituency in China: people who are neither powerful nor protected and for whom securing a stable future justifies almost any sacrifice. They are acutely aware that idealism is a privilege they cannot afford.

张雪峰的受众是一个庞大的群体：他们无权无势，为了一个安稳的未来，几乎任何牺牲都是值得的。他们清醒地意识到，理想主义是一种他们承担不起的奢侈。

Xu, a 34-year-old civil servant in Beijing, wished he had someone like Mr. Zhang when he was choosing a college major. (Like most of the people I interviewed, Xu asked to be identified by one name for fear of government retribution.) Born in a small town in northern China, he grew up in a family where having a “good job” meant being a civil servant, teacher or doctor.

34岁的北京公务员徐先生表示，当初自己选择大学专业时，能有张雪峰这样的人指点迷津。（像我采访的多数人一样，出于担心政府报复，他只愿公开姓氏。）他出生在中国北方的一个小城，在一个认为“好工作”就是公务员、教师或医生的家庭中长大。

“They have no idea what algorithms or semiconductors are,” he said of his parents, “or what kind of major could lead into those industries.”

“他们根本不知道什么是算法、什么是半导体，”他在谈到父母时说，“也不知道什么样的专业能通向这些行业。”

Mr. Zhang, Xu said, made visible a set of possibilities that had been hidden.

徐先生说，张雪峰让一套原本秘而不宣的可能性变得清晰可见。

“He may not have been a guiding light,” Xu said, “but he worked hard to make the maze navigable.”

“他或许算不上一盏指路明灯，”徐先生说，“但他努力让这座迷宫变得可以穿行。”

For decades, the general college entrance exam, known in Chinese as the gaokao, was widely seen as a pathway to changing one’s fate; it was brutally competitive but capable of delivering upward mobility. As universities expanded and the job market deteriorated, that promise weakened. Getting into college became easier. Turning a degree into security did not.

几十年来，被称为“高考”的普通高校招生全国统一考试一直被视为改变命运的一条途径——尽管竞争残酷，但它确实能提供上升通道。随着高校扩招和就业市场恶化，这一承诺正在动摇。考上大学变得容易了，但把一张文凭转化为稳定的生活并非易事。

In this environment, choosing the right major has become increasingly important, said Wang, a college admissions consultant in northern Hebei Province. In many provinces, families have less than two weeks between getting the results of the exam and the deadline to apply to college. In that time, they need to make sense of hundreds of majors, universities and career paths. Even educated parents often feel overwhelmed by the decisions. Mr. Zhang’s appeal, Wang said, lay in making an opaque system feel interpretable.

在这种环境下，选对专业变得越来越重要，河北北部的一位高考志愿咨询师王先生说。在许多省份，从出分到填报志愿截止，留给家庭的时间不到两周。在这段时间里，他们需要在数百个专业、院校和职业路径之间做出判断。即使是受过良好教育的父母也常常被这些选择压得喘不过气。王先生说，张雪峰的吸引力在于，他让一个不透明的体系变得可以被理解。

前来参加张雪峰追悼会的悼念者。

The families who turn to consultants like Mr. Zhang are not, for the most part, China’s elite. But neither are they the poorest. Wang described his clients as families in the broad middle: small-business owners, office workers, skilled laborers and lower-level state employees. They often have money to pay for guidance but lack the social capital or institutional knowledge needed to navigate the system confidently on their own. They’re buying not just advice but also insurance against making a misstep.

求助于像张雪峰这类咨询师的家庭大多不是中国的精英阶层，但也不是最贫困的那一类。王先生形容他的客户是广泛的中间阶层：小企业主、白领、技术工人和基层体制内人士。他们通常有能力为咨询付费，但缺乏独立应对这套体系所需的社会资本或门道。他们购买的不仅是建议，更是一份防止走错路的保险。

Their anxiety has created a thriving market for people willing to decode the system. The service typically costs about $1,000 at firms like Wang’s. But Mr. Zhang was the industry’s biggest star, and his company charged a steep premium. In the summer of 2024, Mr. Zhang offered two tiers of major-selection counseling services through livestreams, priced at $1,743 and $2,615. All 20,000 slots were snapped up almost immediately.

这种焦虑为愿意解读这套体系的人创造了一个蓬勃发展的市场。在像王先生这样的公司，服务费用通常在7000元左右。但张雪峰是这个行业最大的明星，他的公司收费远高于此。2024年夏天，张雪峰通过直播推出了两个档次的专业选择咨询服务，价格分别为1.2万元和1.8万元。全部2万个名额几乎瞬间售罄。

But Mr. Zhang’s influence cannot be explained by market demand alone. His authority also rested on the perception that, after rising above his own class, he had not pulled the ladder up behind him. He came from the same world they did — a working-class family in China’s industrial northeast — and understood, from experience, how unforgiving the climb could be.

但张雪峰的影响力不能仅仅用市场需求来解释。他的权威还建立在这样一种看法之上：在跨越自身阶层之后，他并没有把梯子抽走。他和他的粉丝来自同一个世界——中国东北工业区的一个工薪家庭，他亲身体会过向上攀爬的艰难。

He often spoke about his early struggles. In one livestream, he said he had been reluctant to bring a college girlfriend home because his family slept on a kang, a heated brick bed common in northern China, where she, too, would have to sleep. He was rejected by the parents of three former girlfriends who saw his background as a liability.

他经常谈到自己早年的挣扎。在一次直播中，他说自己曾经不愿意把大学时期的女友带回家，因为家里人都睡在北方常见的炕上——一种加热的砖床——而她也不得不睡在一起。他曾被三任前女友的父母拒绝，因为他们觉得他的家境是个负担。

That biography helps explain why so many followers saw him not just as an education influencer but also as someone who understood the humiliations and calculations of trying to move up in China.

这段经历有助于解释为什么这么多追随者不仅把他看作一个教育网红，更把他看作一个懂得在中国向上攀爬过程中所经历的屈辱与权衡的人。

One caller from a small town sought Mr. Zhang’s life advice during a livestream. An alumnus of a prestigious military engineering university, he had been admitted to a top graduate program in the same field. Yet he told Mr. Zhang that he felt lost. How much would he make after graduation? Which city should he move to? And how could he tell if it would be welcoming to someone like him?

一次直播中，一位来自小城市的求助者向张雪峰寻求人生建议。他是一所知名军事工程大学的毕业生，已被同专业一个顶尖研究生院录取。但他告诉张雪峰，自己感到迷茫。毕业后能赚多少钱？该去哪个城市？又该如何判断，一个城市是否会接纳像他这样的人？

“People like us, the so-called small-town strivers, often carry a sense of inferiority,” Mr. Zhang replied. Then he reassured the caller that he had already accomplished a lot and had given his family a shot at upward mobility. Just keep trying, he said.

“像我们这样的人，所谓的小镇做题家，常常带着一种自卑感，”张雪峰回答说。然后他安慰这位求助者说，他已经取得了很大的成就，为家庭争取到了向上流动的机会。他说，继续努力就好。

Hala, a college junior in China, wrote to me that nearly every parent he knew had watched Mr. Zhang’s livestreams.

中国一名大三学生哈拉给告诉我，他认识的几乎每一位家长都看过张雪峰的直播。

“People say you don’t necessarily have to study what he recommends,” Hala wrote, “but if he tells you not to study something, you definitely shouldn’t.” Critics accused Mr. Zhang of “selling anxiety,” he added. But for families like his, “the anxiety did not need to be sold.” It came from knowing that one wrong educational choice could close off the future they were struggling toward.

“人们说，你未必一定要学他推荐的专业，”哈拉写道，“但如果他告诉你某个专业不能学，那你绝对不能学。”他补充说，批评者指责张雪峰“贩卖焦虑”。但对他这样的家庭来说，“焦虑不需要贩卖”。焦虑来自一种清醒的认知：在通往未来的道路上，一个错误的教育选择就可能让一切努力前功尽弃。

Hala is majoring in computer science, one of the safest bets in today’s China and exactly the kind of choice Mr. Zhang would have endorsed. “And yet,” he wrote, “I am still anxious about the future. I still can’t see a way forward.”

哈拉主修计算机专业，在当下中国，这被视为最稳妥的选择之一，也正是张雪峰会赞同的那种选择。“然而，”他写道，“我仍然对未来感到焦虑。我仍然看不到前路。”

President Trump intensified his threats to devastate Iranian bridges and power plants if the country did not agree to a cease-fire before Tuesday evening, but he offered few details on what such a deal would achieve beyond restoring oil shipping out of the Persian Gulf — which was open before Mr. Trump’s war began.

特朗普总统加剧了对伊朗的威胁，称如果伊朗不在周二晚间之前同意停火，美国将摧毁伊朗境内的桥梁与发电厂。但对于此类协议除恢复波斯湾石油航运之外还能实现何种目标，他几乎未透露任何细节——而在特朗普发动这场战争之前，该航道处于畅通状态。

“We have to have a deal that’s acceptable to me,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “And part of that deal is going to be we want free traffic of oil and everything else.”

“我们必须达成一份我能接受的协议，”特朗普周一在白宫对记者表示。“协议的一部分，就是我们要实现石油以及其他所有物资的自由通行。”

Mr. Trump divulged little about any ongoing cease-fire negotiations, which he said involved Vice President JD Vance. He closed out the news conference with a warning to Europe: “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us.”

特朗普几乎没有披露任何正在进行的停火谈判细节，但他提及副总统万斯参与了谈判。他在新闻发布会结尾向欧洲发出了警告：“我们要格陵兰岛，可他们不肯给我们。”

Trump intensified his threats.

特朗普进一步升级威胁。

Mr. Trump made his threats to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure more explicit, but said he was still open to an agreement with the country’s leaders.

特朗普对攻击伊朗民用基础设施的威胁愈发直白，但同时声称，他仍愿意与伊朗领导层达成协议。

“Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again,” Mr. Trump said. He added: “We don’t want that to happen. We may even get involved with helping them rebuild their nation.”

“伊朗的每一座发电厂都将停运、燃烧、爆炸，再也无法使用，”特朗普称。他还说：“我们不希望这种事发生。我们甚至有可能参与帮助他们重建国家。”

Mr. Trump set a deadline of 8 p.m. Tuesday, Washington time, for Iran to agree to a cease-fire. He said Iran “would like to be able to make a deal,” but “I can’t say any more than that.”

特朗普给伊朗设定了最后期限，要求它在华盛顿时间周二晚8点之前同意停火。他表示，伊朗“希望能够达成协议”，但是“除此之外我不能再多说”。

He dismissed questions about war crimes.

他对战争罪的相关质疑置之不理。

Mr. Trump brushed off a question about whether he was worried that bombing bridges and power plants could constitute war crimes. International law prohibits attacks on civilian objects.

对于他是否担心轰炸桥梁和发电厂行为会构成战争罪的问题，特朗普不屑一顾。国际法禁止攻击民用目标。

“I hope I don’t have to do it,” Mr. Trump said.

“我希望不必这么做，”特朗普说。

He then launched into a familiar criticism of his predecessors having been “weak, ineffective and afraid” of Iran.

随后，他又开始了一贯的批评，指责历任前总统对伊朗“软弱、无能、畏缩”。

He has ‘a concept’ for the Strait of Hormuz.

他对霍尔木兹海峡有“一个构想”

Mr. Trump has gone back and forth about whether Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of any deal, underscoring the strategic quandary for the president as he struggles to restore global oil markets to their prewar status quo.

对于伊朗是否必须将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡作为协议的一部分，特朗普的态度反复摇摆，这也凸显出总统在竭力让全球石油市场恢复至战前状态时面临的战略困境。

Responding to a question about whether he would be willing to end the conflict even if Iran is charging tolls for passage through the strait, Mr. Trump laid out a new ambition: having the United States control the artery out of the Persian Gulf.

有记者问，伊朗仍在对通过海峡的船只收取通行费，他是否即便如此也依然愿意结束冲突，特朗普就此提出了一个全新的野心：让美国掌控这条波斯湾的航运要道。

He did not explain how that could happen, since the United States does not control the strait.

他并未解释这将如何实现，毕竟美国并不掌控这条海峡。

“We have a concept where we’ll charge tolls,” he said.

“我们有一个构想，未来我们要收取通行费，”他说。

He highlighted a daring rescue operation.

他重点宣扬了一次大胆的营救行动。

Mr. Trump’s news conference was called ostensibly to highlight the U.S. military’s daring rescue of an Air Force colonel whose fighter jet had been shot down.

特朗普召开这场新闻发布会，名义上是为了宣扬美军对一名战机被击落的空军上校的大胆营救行动。

At a time when many Americans are expressing uncertainty about the future of the war and concern about fuel prices at home, Mr. Trump described the rescue in dramatic, and even cinematic, terms.

在许多美国人对这场战争的走向心存疑虑，同时对国内的燃油价格深感担忧之际，特朗普用戏剧性的口吻，甚至是电影术语描述了此次营救行动。

“You would call it central casting if you were doing a movie for location,” he said of the part of Iran where the airman was stranded, adding, “Those pilots came in so fast and so quick and got out of there.”

“如果你要给电影选址，会觉得这地方简直是为取景量身定制的，”他在谈及飞行员被困的伊朗区域时说。他还补充说，“那些飞行员飞快地冲进去，然后又撤离出来。”

The president asked Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to reveal more details, including how many people were sent on the rescue mission.

总统要求参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军透露更多细节，包括执行此次营救任务的人员规模。

“I’d love to keep that a secret,” General Caine responded.

“我还是希望保密，”凯恩回应道。

Turning back to the press, Mr. Trump said that “it was hundreds.”

特朗普转而对媒体称，“有几百人”参与了此次行动。

He threatened to jail a reporter.

他威胁要将一名记者送进监狱。

During the news conference, the president became angry with a member of his staff who he claimed had leaked a story about the downed airman to the news media. He threatened to jail a reporter, whom he did not identify, unless the journalist turned over the identity of the source.

新闻发布会期间，总统对一名白宫工作人员大发雷霆，声称此人向媒体泄露了战机飞行员被击落的相关消息。他威胁要将一名未具名的记者送进监狱，除非该记者交出消息源的身份信息。

“We’re going to find out,” Mr. Trump said, adding, “The person that did the story will go to jail if he doesn’t say.”

“我们会查清楚的，”特朗普称。他还说，“写这篇报道的人如果不交代，就得去坐牢。”

Mr. Trump has long pushed for the jailing of reporters who publish leaked information. Mr. Trump himself was charged federally with mishandling classified documents he kept upon leaving office. That case was later dismissed.

长期以来，特朗普一直主张将发布泄密信息的记者送入监狱。而特朗普本人在卸任后也曾因不当处理机密文件而面临联邦起诉，该案后来被撤销。

He wants to claim Iran’s oil.

他意图夺取伊朗的石油资源。

Mr. Trump continued to make Venezuela the model for his vision of how to deal with Iran, particularly his seizure of some of the country’s oil.

特朗普继续以委内瑞拉为模板，阐述自己对伊朗的的构想，尤其是他此前没收委内瑞拉部分石油资源的做法。

“To the victor belong the spoils,” he said, then suggested he would like to return to a world order of centuries past where conquering nations seized resources from the countries they defeated. “We haven’t heard that in, I think, maybe hundreds of years.”

“战利品归胜利者所有，”他说。随后他还表示，希望回归数百年前的世界秩序——战胜国可以从战败国手中掠夺资源。“我想，我们已经有好几百年没听过这种说法了。”

The energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East caught China, the world’s top buyer of oil, by surprise. But Beijing has been preparing for a crisis like this for years.

中东战争引发的能源冲击让全球最大的石油买家中国措手不及。但北京多年来一直在为这样一场危机做准备。

China has stockpiled increasingly large amounts of oil. It has pursued renewable sources of energy like solar, wind and hydropower so aggressively that its demand for refined oil, diesel and gasoline is falling. And it has harnessed technology to reduce its reliance on the foreign-sourced raw materials that go into the massive output of its factories.

中国不断增加石油储备。它大力发展太阳能、风能和水电等可再生能源，以至于对精炼油、柴油和汽油的需求正在下降。它还利用技术减少对进口原材料的依赖，这些原材料是其工厂大规模生产所必需的。

China’s ruling Communist Party has long viewed its industries as the foundation of its national security strategy. It has sharpened — and expanded — that approach since President Trump’s first term. China has doubled down on policies to build up local industries, in turn strengthening its global dominance over resources and supply chains.

中国共产党长期以来将工业视为国家安全战略的基础。自特朗普总统第一任期以来，这一理念得到加强和扩展。中国愈发推崇发展本土工业的政策，进而增强其在资源和供应链上的全球主导地位。

“You have seen more top-down industrial policy, more guidance from the central government to develop certain strategic sectors that China believes they need to strengthen in order not to be controlled by a Western power,” said Heiwai Tang, director of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong.

“我们已经看到更多自上而下的产业政策，中央政府提供更多指导，来发展中国认为需要加强的某些战略部门，以免被西方大国控制，”香港大学亚洲环球研究所所长邓希炜说。

Energy was the linchpin.

能源是关键。

A decade ago, China was the world’s biggest market for internal combustion engine cars. Today, it is the top market for electric vehicles. China used to be the largest buyer of foreign-sourced petrochemicals, the raw materials derived from oil that are used to make plastic, metal, rubber components and other crucial ingredients in the goods its factories churn out. Now it uses mostly domestic coal to make certain chemicals, like methanol and synthetic ammonia. Government planning and investment were crucial to those advances.

十年前，中国是全球最大的内燃机汽车市场。如今，它已成为电动汽车的最大市场。中国曾经是外国石化产品的最大买家，也就是从石油中提取的用于制造塑料、金属、橡胶部件及其他工厂关键原料的原材料。现在，它主要使用国内煤炭来生产某些化学品，如甲醇和合成氨。政府规划和投资对这些进步至关重要。

2023年，中国潍坊的一座燃煤发电厂。

As the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for virtually all of the oil that flows to Asia, remains largely shut off, China has so far proved more resilient than much of the rest of the world.

几乎所有流向亚洲的石油的必经之地霍尔木兹海峡目前基本处于关闭状态，而中国迄今为止已证明其比世界其他许多地区更有韧性。

China can now power many of its cars and trains with electricity, greatly reducing its reliance on oil. China has also honed the use of coal — and not oil — to produce its own petrochemicals. This technology, developed by Germany and used to sustain its economy during World War II, gives Beijing an alternative to oil to make the raw materials its factories need.

中国现在可以用电力驱动许多汽车和火车，大大减少了对石油的依赖。中国还完善了用煤炭（而非石油）生产本土石化产品的技术。这种最初由德国开发，并在二战期间用于维持其经济的技术，成为石油的替代方案，为北京提供其工厂所需的原材料。

Vietnam and the Philippines, facing severe shortages of oil and other energy sources, appealed to China for help last month. “China stands ready to strengthen coordination and collaboration with Southeast Asian countries and jointly address energy security issues,” a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry said.

上个月，面临严重石油和其他能源短缺的越南和菲律宾向中国求助。“中方愿同东南亚国家加强协调配合，共同应对能源安全问题，”中国外交部发言人表示。

Beijing has long been fixated on addressing its reliance on foreign sources of energy and materials.

北京长期以来一直专注于解决对外国能源和原材料的依赖问题。

At the turn of the century, officials worried about another narrow passageway through which oil traveled to China: the Strait of Malacca, which separates Indonesia and Malaysia from Singapore. In 2004, China created an emergency petroleum stockpile to address those concerns. In recent months, it has been expeditiously adding to its stockpile.

本世纪初，另一条将石油运往中国的狭窄通道——将印度尼西亚、马来西亚与新加坡分隔开的马六甲海峡——引起了官员们的担忧。2004年，中国建立了紧急石油储备以应对这些担忧。最近几个月，这一储备得到了迅速扩大。

As China was becoming a factory powerhouse for the world in the late 1990s, it needed foreign chemical companies like DuPont, Shell and BASF to set up plants to supply the chemicals its factories needed. In recent years, Chinese companies have come to dominate much of the world’s chemical supplies. Three-quarters of the world’s polyester and nylon, for example, are made in China.

上世纪90年代末，正在成为世界工厂的中国需要杜邦、壳牌和巴斯夫等外国化工公司在中国设厂，以供应工厂所需的化学品。近年来，中国公司已主导了全球大部分化工供应。例如，全球四分之三的聚酯和尼龙是在中国生产的。

去年在中国青海省，将阳光直接转化为电能的光伏太阳能板。

China is still the world’s largest buyer of oil and gas, and three-quarters of its oil is imported. While Beijing does not disclose the size of its reserves, its crude oil imports increased 4.4 percent in 2025 over the previous year, while its consumption grew 3.6 percent, according to the Chinese government. But after billions of dollars in direct subsidies to electric vehicle makers and hundreds of billions invested in renewable sources of energy, China’s efforts have paid off. Demand for refined oil, gasoline and diesel has fallen two years in a row, prompting experts to forecast that China’s oil and gas consumption has peaked.

中国仍是全球最大的石油和天然气买家，其四分之三的石油依赖进口。虽然北京不披露储备规模，但根据中国政府数据，2025年其原油进口较上年增长4.4%，而消耗增长3.6%。但在向电动汽车制造商提供数十亿美元直接补贴并在可再生能源上投入数千亿美元之后，中国的努力已见成效。对精炼油、汽油和柴油的需求已连续两年下降，专家预测中国的油气消费已达峰值。

At the same time, China’s oil consumption is growing in the petrochemicals industry as it further secures its supply chains.

与此同时，中国石化工业的石油消费仍在增长，以进一步巩固其供应链。

China’s industry boomed as the government invested heavily, provided cheap loans and encouraged universities to cater to chemical engineering, said Joerg Wuttke, who served as the chief representative in China for BASF, the German chemical company, for 27 years.

任德国化工公司巴斯夫驻华首席代表27年的伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)表示，这些努力得益于政府大量投资，提供廉价贷款，并鼓励大学培养化工人才，从而推动了中国工业的繁荣。

These efforts accelerated under Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and during Mr. Trump’s first presidency.

这些努力在习近平领导下以及特朗普第一任期期间加速推进。

“Everything that Trump does triggers even more self-reliance from Beijing,” said Mr. Wuttke, who is now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, a consultancy firm.

“特朗普所做的任何事都会促使北京更加自力更生，”现为咨询公司奥尔布赖特石桥集团合伙人的伍德克说。

During his first term, Mr. Trump confronted China on economic and business issues, setting off a trade war and a technology showdown.

特朗普在第一任期内就经济和商业问题与中国对抗，引发了一场贸易战和技术较量。

Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach to China set off alarms.

特朗普的对抗性策略为中国敲响了警钟。

中国一直在大力开发风能及其他可再生能源。

Chinese leaders began to send out signals. In 2019, Li Keqiang, the premier at the time, called for China to use coal to make both electricity and chemicals as part of an effort to reduce its dependence on seaborne oil. It was a deviation from China’s focus on eliminating coal.

中国领导人开始发出信号。2019年，时任总理李克强呼吁中国用煤炭发电和生产化学品，以减少对海运石油的依赖。这偏离了中国此前淘汰煤炭的关注。

By late 2020, as the pandemic raged, causing major disruptions to shipping and global trade, and tensions with the United States reached new heights, China put out an official road map, attributed to Mr. Xi, for how to get through the period of turbulence.

到2020年底，随着疫情肆虐导致航运和全球贸易严重中断，以及与美国的紧张关系达到新高，中国发布了一份据称由习近平主导的官方路线图，指导如何度过动荡时期。

Published in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, the text was a call to arms for Chinese industries to hunker down. They were told to develop technologies faster than competitors overseas to achieve self-reliance and insulate China from supply chain disruptions.

这篇文章发表在中共主要理论刊物《求是》上，号召中国工业“卧薪尝胆”。文章要求业界比海外竞争对手更快地发展技术，以实现自力更生，并使中国免受供应链中断的影响。

“Trump 1.0 was a very clear rupture that changed China’s geopolitical calculus, and it reactivated old fears,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, a co-founder of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, an independent research organization, who has tracked China’s growing use of coal to make petrochemicals.

“特朗普1.0是一场非常明确的决裂，改变了中国的地缘政治计算，并重新激活了旧有的忧虑，”独立研究机构能源与清洁空气研究中心联合创始人柳力(Lauri Myllyvirta)说，他对中国石化生产中的煤炭使用增加进行了追踪。

“Xi himself had spoken about supply chain resiliency,” Mr. Myllyvirta said. “All of this just enabled a petrochemicals boom to gain steam.”

“习近平曾亲自谈及供应链韧性，”柳力说。“所有这些都为石化产业的繁荣提供了助力。”

The signals from the top allowed the industry to expand and build plants to use coal instead of oil to make petrochemicals.

来自高层的信号让该行业得以扩张，并建设工厂，用煤炭而非石油生产石化产品。

去年，中国某农村庭院里的煤炭。

In 2020, China used 155 million tons of standard coal equivalent to make chemicals. By 2024, it was using 276 million tons. By 2025, that figure increased another 15 percent, eclipsing the total coal consumption in the United States of 230 million tons.

2020年，中国用1.55亿吨标准煤当量生产化学品。到2024年，这一数字增至2.76亿吨。到2025年，又增加了15%，超过了美国全年2.3亿吨的煤炭消费总量。

Chinese officials have said using coal is a temporary bridge to being more reliant on renewables, and they have also invested in technology that uses electricity to make petrochemicals. But using coal as an alternative to oil for now is paying off as shortages of oil and gas have sent prices surging.

中国官员表示，使用煤炭是转向更多依赖可再生能源的过渡，他们还投资了用电生产石化产品的技术。但目前，用煤炭作为石油的替代品正在发挥作用，因为石油和天然气的短缺导致价格飙升。

Take nitrogen fertilizer. China produces a third of the global supply, and 80 percent of it is made with coal instead of oil. Since the war in the Middle East began, international prices for urea, the main chemical in fertilizer, have surged by over 40 percent, while China’s domestically produced equivalent has stayed at less than half of the global rate.

以氮肥为例。全球三分之一的供应来自中国，其中80%是用煤炭而非石油制成的。自中东战争爆发以来，肥料中的主要化学品尿素的国际价格上涨超过40%，而中国国内生产的同类产品价格仍不到全球价格的一半。

Even before the American and Israeli militaries started exchanging combat fire with Iran, threatening one of the world’s most important regions for resources that power countries, China had a dominant position, said Johanna Krebs, an analyst at the Mercator Institute of Chinese Studies, a German think tank.

德国智库墨卡托中国研究所分析师约翰娜·克雷布斯说，甚至在美国和以色列军队开始与伊朗交火，威胁全球最重要的资源产区之前，中国就已经占据主导地位。

“The Chinese,” she said, “most likely will see this as encouragement on the path to self-sufficiency.”

“中国人大概率会把这件事看作是一种激励，”她说，“推动他们继续在自给自足的道路上走下去。”

It’s easy to feel hypnotized by the quivering wheat fields and frosty forests of “Living the Land,” a patient, multigenerational drama that immerses viewers in the traditions and labor practices of a farming community in China’s Henan Province. Cycles of weddings, funerals and harvests take place with the changing seasons, yet the forces of modernity and globalization seep into the villagers’ lives in subtle ways. The radio broadcast shares news of civil unrest in Ethiopia and Kuwait, and talk of machines that can “do the work of a whole village” leave some wondering: What would that leave for the workers to do?

《生息之地》里随风起伏的麦田、覆着霜雪的林地，很容易让观众深深沉醉其中。这部节奏舒缓、横跨代际的剧情片将观众彻底带入中国河南省一个农耕村落的传统习俗与劳作日常。婚丧嫁娶、春种秋收的轮回随四季更迭往复，而现代化与全球化的浪潮正以微妙的方式悄悄渗透进村民的生活。收音机里播报着埃塞俄比亚与科威特的内乱新闻，而关于那些“能干一整个村子的活”的机器的议论，让一些人心里犯起了嘀咕：真到了那一天，劳动者还能做什么？

The year is 1991, the beginning of a decade when modern technologies began spreading to rural parts of the country for the first time; and when economic reforms accelerated, causing agricultural families to split apart as their members moved to the city in search of better jobs.

故事发生在1991年，一个时代的开端：在这十年里，现代科技首次开始向中国农村地区普及，经济改革也持续提速，许多农户家庭因成员前往城市寻找更好的工作而分居两地。

This is the case with the parents of 10-year-old Chuang (Wang Shang), who now lives with his extended family in Henan. The writer-director Huo Meng takes an observational approach, capturing village life mostly from Chuang’s naïve point of view as he attends the local school and spends time with his cousins, one of whom is developmentally disabled, as well as his great-grandmother (Zhang Yanrong) and his favorite “auntie,” Xiuying (Zhang Chuwen).

10岁的闯（汪尚饰）的父母就是如此，他留在河南，和一大家子亲人一同生活。编剧兼导演霍猛采用了观察式的手法，大多透过闯天真的视角捕捉乡村生活：他去村里的学校上课，和表兄弟姐妹们相伴——其中一人患有发育障碍——还有他与太姥姥（张彦荣饰）和他最亲近的秀英小姨（张楚文饰）相处的点滴日常。

The film tracks about a year in Chuang’s life in a sober, sociological style of long takes and smooth pans. The story feels loose, intentionally directionless, at first, but as it winds toward the cooler months, its collection of small details builds up to big-picture revelations about the imminent rise of China as a global superpower. Chuang’s great-grandmother talks to him about college and the newlywed Xiuying considers divorce. Their community’s centuries-old customs may soon be endangered, but change comes with its burdens and blessings.

影片以冷静的社会学视角，通过长镜头与平稳摇镜，记录了闯生命中约一整年的时光。故事起初看似松散，似乎有意不设置明确的方向，但随着故事逐渐走向寒冷的季节，无数细碎的日常细节层层堆叠，最终勾勒出中国即将崛起为全球超级大国的宏大图景。闯的太姥姥总跟他念叨着将来要考大学，新婚不久的秀英正动着离婚的念头。这个村落里传承了数百年的习俗，或许很快就将面临消亡，而时代的变革，从来都是既会带来负担，也会带来福祉。

Living the LandNot rated. In Mandarin, with subtitles. Running time: 2 hours 12 minutes. In theaters.

《生息之地》。无分级。普通话对白，配字幕。片长2小时12分钟。正在院线上映。

The first time humans flew to the moon, it came at the end of a rotten year. War, political violence, racial strife, protesters in the streets — it felt like everything was coming unraveled. Yet when Apollo 8 splashed down, it proved so inspiring that one American summed up the feeling with a telegram thanking the astronauts: “You saved 1968.”

人类首次飞向月球时，正值一个糟糕年份的尾声。战争、政治暴力、种族冲突、街头抗议——仿佛一切都在分崩离析。然而当“阿波罗8号”溅落归航时，它如此激励人心，以至于一位美国人用一封电报总结了当时的心情，感谢宇航员说：“你们拯救了1968年。”

Fifty-eight years later, another U.S. spacecraft hurtled toward the heavens this week to begin a journey back to the moon amid deep divisions at home. For a brief moment, the talk was again about courage, exploration, national ambition and common purpose. But it was no fault of the four astronauts of Artemis II that the planet they left behind remains riven by war, strife and violence or that 2026 has not, as yet, been saved.

58年后，又一艘美国航天器于本周冲向太空，开启重返月球的旅程，而此时国内同样深陷分裂。有那么一刻，人们又谈起了勇气、探索、国家雄心和共同目标。但“阿尔忒弥斯2号”的四位宇航员无法为他们身后这颗依然被战争、冲突与暴力撕裂的星球负责，也无法为2026年尚未被拯救这一事实负责。

The launch of Artemis II on Wednesday evening captured the tenor of the times in a country that can still do big things but seems forever mired in big problems. The roar of the rocket managed to hold the spotlight for less than 2 1/2 hours before President Donald Trump came on the screen to change the subject. While he congratulated the astronauts at the top, he quickly turned the nation’s attention back to the latest war dividing Americans and the economic turmoil it has wrought here and around the world.

周三晚间“阿尔忒弥斯2号”的发射映射出一个国家的时代基调：它依然能够成就大事，却似乎始终困于巨大的麻烦之中。火箭的轰鸣声占据聚光灯的时间甚至没能超过两个半小时，特朗普总统便出现在屏幕上，改变了话题。尽管他一开始向宇航员表示了祝贺，但很快就把国家的注意力拉回到那场正在分裂美国的最新战争及其在国内和全球造成的经济动荡上。

This is, it seems, a country impervious to unity these days, led by a president with little interest in pursuing it. Rather than take advantage of the moment to try to bring Americans together behind a fresh leap back into the next frontier, Trump focused on what has torn Americans apart. He did not have to give that speech just after the launch. It did not say anything new. He chose that particular moment to draw the cameras back to himself so that he could “tell everybody how great I am,” as he described his goal beforehand.

如今的美国似乎难以实现团结，而领导它的总统也几乎无意推动团结。特朗普并没有利用这个契机引导美国人团结在重返未知疆域的壮举之后，而是专注于那些撕裂美国的事物。他本不必在发射后紧接着发表那场演讲，而且讲话内容也没有新意。他选择那个特定的时刻，是为了将镜头拉回自己身上，以便他能够“告诉大家我有多伟大”——正如他事先所说。

“Had he said more about it last night in the speech, that would have been a unifying factor,” said Roger D. Launius, a retired NASA chief historian. “Everybody likes this stuff. You might question the cost, but generally we all sort of like it. There’s not a lot of NASA haters out there. It’s nonpartisan.”

“如果他昨晚在讲话中多谈一些这件事，本可以成为一种凝聚人心的因素，”NASA前首席历史学家罗杰·劳尼乌斯说。“大家都喜欢这种事情。你或许会质疑成本，但总体来说，我们都挺喜欢的。几乎没有什么人反对NASA。这是超越党派的。”

Still, Launius said, the Artemis II launch did remind him of that brief moment of shared endeavor in 1968. “I think there were a lot of people who paused to see that,” he said. “Now they immediately got back to other things. Within a half-hour, it was over. But I do think there was a similar camaraderie.”

不过劳尼乌斯也表示，“阿尔忒弥斯2号”的发射让他想起了1968年那个短暂的共同奋斗时刻。“我觉得很多人都停下来关注了这件事，”他说。“但很快大家又回到了别的事情上。不到半小时就结束了。但我确实认为当时存在一种类似的休戚与共的情谊。”

To be sure, Artemis is not Apollo, and going back to the moon does not fire the imagination like going there in the first place. For many Americans, it seems like a rerun, even if most were not old enough to remember the last time humans ventured beyond Earth’s orbit. Like Apollo 8, which paved the way for Apollo 11 to actually land on the moon, Artemis II will circle the satellite without actually touching down, leaving that to a successor craft in the coming years.

诚然，“阿尔忒弥斯”并非“阿波罗”，重返月球也不像人类首次登月那样能激发想象力。对许多美国人来说，这看起来像是一场“重播”，即使大多数人年纪尚轻，并未亲历人类首次飞离地球轨道。正如为“阿波罗11号”真正登月铺平道路的“阿波罗8号”一样，“阿尔忒弥斯2号”只是环月飞行，而不会真正着陆，着陆的任务将留给未来几年的后续飞行器。

Moreover, for all the wonder of those iconic launches in the 1960s and early 1970s, the sense of coming together did not last long. Apollo did not end the turmoil over the Vietnam War or civil rights or the assassinations of the era. And once Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin took that great leap for humanity and beat the Russians — which, after all, was John F. Kennedy’s real goal — the magic ended for many ready to move on.

此外，尽管20世纪60年代和70年代初那些标志性的发射壮举令人惊叹，但那种团结感并未持续太久。阿波罗计划并没有结束围绕越战、民权运动或那个时代的政治暗杀造成的动荡。而一旦尼尔·阿姆斯特朗和巴兹·奥尔德林完成了那次“人类的一大步”并击败了苏联人——这终究才是约翰·肯尼迪的真实目标——对于许多准备好转向其他事务的人来说，那份魔力也就此消散。

Yet there was still something awe-inspiring about reaching out again after so long, as enthusiastic crowds gathered in Florida and online around the world concluded this week. It is no small feat to travel 250,000 miles from the Earth. Only 24 humans have ever visited our nearest neighbor, 12 of whom actually landed on the moon, and none in more than half a century.

然而，在阔别多年后再次触碰深空，依然有着某种震撼人心的力量，正如本周在佛罗里达集结的热情人群以及全球在线关注者所感受到的那样。从地球启程飞行40万英里绝非易事。历史上仅有24人造访过我们最近的邻居，其中只有12人真正登上了月球，且半个多世纪以来再无人踏足。

Under its commander, Reid Wiseman, Artemis II is bringing the first woman (Christina Koch), the first Black man (Victor Glover) and the first non-American (Jeremy Hansen of Canada) to another world.

在指令长里德·怀斯曼的带领下，“阿尔忒弥斯2号”正将首位女性（克里斯蒂娜·科赫）、首位黑人（维克多·格洛弗）以及首位非美国人（来自加拿大的杰里米·汉森）带往另一个世界。

And this time, NASA says, humans are traveling to the moon to stay. Artemis IV and Artemis V are supposed to land on the dusty surface in 2028, and future expeditions are meant to serve as a springboard toward the even more ambitious mission of sending humans for the first time to Mars.

而这次，NASA表示，人类前往月球是为了留下。“阿尔忒弥斯4号”和“5号”预计将于2028年在这片布满尘埃的表面着陆，未来的远征将作为跳板，向着更雄心勃勃的首次载人登陆火星任务迈进。

“We need this,” Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said in an interview Thursday, a day after attending the launch with his twin brother and fellow former astronaut Scott Kelly. “Right now, with the division in our country, just everything seems to be one side or the other and politicized and just like the chaos in the world right now. On top of it, we’ve got a war in Europe, people can’t afford their lives, election coming up. It’s just a crazy time. It’s moments like this that I think give people hope.”

“我们需要这个，”亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利在周四的采访中说道。就在前一天，他与双胞胎兄弟、同为前宇航员的斯科特·凯利共同出席了发射仪式。“眼下，随着我们国家的分裂，似乎所有事情都非此即彼、被政治化，就像现在世界的混乱局势一样。除此之外，欧洲还有战争，人们生活不堪重负，大选也近在眼前。这真是一个疯狂的时代。正是这样的时刻，我认为能给人们带来希望。”

There are so few things that bring Americans together these days. Public faith in the presidency, Congress, the Supreme Court, business, the police and the media has fallen. Establishments and endeavors that were once widely respected are now seen through partisan or ideological lenses. Even institutions like Harvard University, the FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are now distrusted by wide swaths of Americans on one side of the aisle or the other.

如今，能把美国人凝聚在一起的事情少之又少。公众对总统、国会、最高法院、企业、警察和媒体的信任度都在下降。曾经广受尊敬的机构和事业现在都被打上了党派或意识形态的烙印。甚至像哈佛大学、联邦调查局和疾控中心这样的机构，现在也被两党中一方的广大美国人所不信任。

While Americans used to rally around the president at the start of a war, Trump’s attack on Iran was the first major conflict in the history of polling not to have public support from the beginning. Trump is a historically unpopular president, but according to Gallup polling, every president over the past two decades has governed without the support of a majority of Americans for most of their tenures.

虽然过去美国人习惯在战争爆发之初团结在总统周围，但特朗普对伊朗的袭击却是民意调查史上首次在开战之初就未获得公众支持的重大冲突。特朗普是一位在历史上不受欢迎的总统，但根据盖洛普民意调查，过去二十年里的每一位总统，在其大部分任期内都未能在获得多数美国人支持的情况下执政。

NASA has been an outlier. While many Americans question whether the moon should be a high priority, the space program has high ratings. Of 16 federal agencies tested by the Pew Research Center in 2024, NASA was seen favorably by more Americans than all but two others (the National Park Service and the U.S. Postal Service), with 67% positive versus just 12% negative.

NASA是一个例外。尽管许多美国人质疑是否应将登月作为高度优先事项，但航天计划却拥有极高的支持率。皮尤研究中心在2024年对16个联邦机构进行的调查中，NASA的好感度排在第三位（仅次于国家公园管理局和美国邮政署），有67%的美国人对其持正面看法，而只有12%持负面看法。

To listen to the astronauts themselves describe their hopes for their mission in the months before the launch was to hear the palpable desire not just to depart the Earth but to heal it. In a series of interviews with The New York Times in January, the space-farers gave voice to distinctly terrestrial aspirations.

在发射前几个月聆听宇航员们描述他们对任务的希望，就能感受到一种强烈的渴望——不仅是离开地球，更是治愈地球。在今年1月接受《纽约时报》的一系列采访中，这些太空旅行者表达了明显属于地球上的愿望。

Koch talked about how the moon mission would be “celebrating the fact that we recognize that we can go farther when we go together.” Glover compared it to 1968 when “it was a tough time in the country” and said that he hoped “that we can create a touchpoint for our generation that’s equal to or maybe even, maybe there’s a path to be even greater” than Apollo 8.

科赫谈到，登月任务将是“为了庆祝这样一个事实：我们意识到，当我们共同进发时，可以走得更远”。格洛弗将其比作1968年，那时“国家正处于艰难时期”，并表示他希望“我们能够为我们这一代人创造一个与‘阿波罗8号’同等，甚至可能更伟大的连接点”。

Wiseman acknowledged that even amid all the technological tests and flight simulations, he had been mulling over the state of society. “I’ve been thinking — in the world that it is today, what are the things that we can best do to lift up our friends on planet Earth?” he said. “I hope we have a great impact on bringing the world together even just for a minute.”

怀斯曼承认，即使在所有的技术测试和飞行模拟中，他也一直在思考社会的现状。“我一直在想——在当今这个世界，我们最能做些什么来最好地鼓舞我们在地球上的朋友们？”他说。“我希望我们能对世界团结产生巨大作用，哪怕只是片刻。”

在指令长里德·怀斯曼的带领下，“阿尔忒弥斯2号”正将首位女性（克里斯蒂娜·科赫）、首位黑人（维克多·格洛弗）以及首位非美国人（来自加拿大的杰里米·汉森）带往另一个世界。

That is perhaps an even heavier lift than the Space Launch System achieved above Florida this week. Even more than in 1968, America is a country splintered into tribal factions. Americans who watched Apollo 8 take off mainly did so on one of three major broadcast networks or one public network. An estimated 1 billion people around the world watched or listened as Frank Borman, James Lovell and William Anders read from the Book of Genesis on Christmas Eve.

这或许比本周在佛罗里达州升空的“空间发射系统”火箭所承载的任务还要艰巨。与1968年相比，现在的美国更像是一个分裂成部落式派系的国家。当年观看“阿波罗8号”发射的美国人主要通过三大广播网或一个公共网络观看。据估计，当年全球有10亿人在圣诞夜收看或收听了弗兰克·博尔曼、詹姆斯·洛威尔和威廉·安德斯朗读《创世记》中的章节。

The revival of the space exploration program has been a priority of Trump’s since his first term, the kind of grand project that fits his vision of making America great again. Yet with the war on Iran disrupting markets and economies, he devoted just 35 seconds to the launch at the start of his nationally televised address shortly after takeoff. “It’s amazing,” he said, praising NASA and the astronauts. “They are on the way, and God bless them. These are brave people.”

自特朗普第一个任期以来，重启太空探索计划就是他的优先事项之一，这类宏大项目符合他“让美国再次伟大”的愿景。然而，由于对伊朗的战争扰乱了市场和经济，他在全国电视讲话中只在开场时用35秒提到了这次发射。“太了不起了，”他称赞了NASA和宇航员。“他们正在路上，上帝保佑他们。这些都是勇敢的人。”

Kelly said he hoped the spirit of Artemis II would invigorate Americans for more than a day. “It’s a way they all get to see some of the great things that our country can do,” he said. “So it definitely is a unifying event. We’ll see how unifying it is and how long it lasts.”

凯利表示，他希望“阿尔忒弥斯2号”的精神能激励美国人不止一天。“这能让所有人都有机会亲眼目睹，我们的国家依然有能力成就一番伟业，”他说。“所以这绝对是一个团结人心的盛事。我们将拭目以待它究竟能有多大的凝聚力，以及能持续多久。”

周三晚间，执行“阿尔忒弥斯2号”任务的火箭在升空后划破天际。