It came as no surprise that the discussion of birthright citizenship at the Supreme Court this week focused on the landmark 1898 precedent set by Wong Kim Ark, which ruled that a child born in San Francisco to Chinese parents was a citizen.

本周，最高法院就出生地公民权展开的讨论毫无意外地聚焦于1898年的黄金德案这一里程碑式判例，该案裁定一对华裔夫妇在旧金山所生的孩子拥有美国公民身份。

But notably peppered throughout the oral arguments Wednesday were many references to lesser-known cases: Fong Yue Ting. Lau Ow Bew. Yick Wo. Bhagat Singh Thind.

但值得注意的是，在周三的口头辩论中，冯越亭案、刘敖标（音）案、益和案、巴哈特·辛格·廷德案等一系列鲜为人知的判例被反复提及。

Each of these names refers to an Asian immigrant at the center of a Supreme Court case in the late 19th century or early 20th century.

这些名字背后，都是19世纪末至20世纪初最高法院案件核心中的亚裔移民。

In the decades before and after the Wong lawsuit, immigrants from China, Japan and India fought an immigration system that tried to keep people like them from entering the United States and from becoming American citizens. Taken together, the cases reflect a body of case law, beyond that of Wong Kim Ark, that has shaped the American immigration system for more than 100 years.

在黄金德提起诉讼前后的数十年间，来自中国、日本、印度的移民与试图阻止他们入境、剥夺他们成为美国公民资格的美国移民体系展开了长期抗争。这些案件与黄金德案共同构成了一套完整判例法，在过去一个多世纪里塑造了美国的移民制度。

“The reason why there are so many cases involving Asian immigrants or the children of Asian immigrants,” said Amanda L. Tyler, a constitutional law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, “is because immigration law in this country for a very long time was incredibly unreceptive to Asian immigration and naturalization.”

“之所以出现这么多涉及亚裔移民或其子女的判例，”加州大学伯克利分校宪法学教授阿曼达·泰勒表示。“是因为长期以来，美国移民法对亚裔移民与入籍申请极度排斥。”

The web of federal immigration restrictions was so comprehensive that, throughout the first half of the 19th century, there were relatively few Asians in the United States. Starting in 1882, virtually all Chinese people were barred from entering the country, and by the 1930s, that had broadened to cover most people from Asia. Asian immigrants also faced bans on becoming naturalized citizens.

联邦移民限制体系极为严密，19世纪上半叶，在美亚裔人口数量寥寥。1882年起，美国事实上禁止所有中国人入境；到20世纪30年代，这一禁令范围扩大至绝大多数亚洲国家。亚裔移民还面临着无法入籍的禁令。

During this era, many Asians turned to their communities for help in challenging these laws, said Gabriel J. Chin, a law professor at the University of California, Davis.

加州大学戴维斯分校法学教授加布里埃尔·秦（音）表示，这一时期，许多亚裔转而依托社群力量，挑战这些法律。

The powerful Chinese Consolidated Benevolent Association, a group of family and hometown organizations also known as the Six Companies, hired high-profile white lawyers to work on these cases. Led by wealthy Chinese merchants, the association was motivated not just by a desire to protect its community, but also to preserve its access to Chinese labor.

势力强大的中华会馆（又称“六大公司”）是由宗亲与同乡会馆组成的联合组织。该机构聘请知名白人律师代理这些诉讼。在富有的华商领导下，会馆的动机不仅是保护社群，还在于维持获取中国劳工的渠道。

All told, Chinese immigrants filed more than 10,000 lawsuits at the local, state and federal levels during the period of exclusion, historians say.

历史学家称，排华时期，华裔移民在地方、州与联邦各级法院提起的诉讼超过1万起。

“Because of the economic and political importance of Chinese immigration, high-quality U.S. citizen lawyers were hired to litigate cases large and small,” Chin said.

“由于华人移民具备重要的经济与政治价值，各方聘请了高素质的美国公民律师，代理大大小小的各类案件，”加布里埃尔·秦说。

In 1886, the Six Companies helped find lawyers for Lee Yick, the owner of Yick Wo laundry in San Francisco, after he was arrested for violating a local law requiring permits for all laundry businesses in wooden buildings. While neutral on its face, the law was disproportionately used to target Chinese laundry owners.

1886年，六大公司协助旧金山益和洗衣店老板李益找到律师。李益因违反当地一项法令被捕，该法令要求所有木质建筑内的洗衣店必须申请经营许可。尽管法令表面中立，但实际执行中被过度用于针对华裔洗衣店老板。

Lee prevailed under the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause. The decision became a landmark civil rights case because it extended equal protection to noncitizens.

最终，李益依据宪法第十四修正案的平等保护条款胜诉。该案成为民权领域的里程碑判例，因为它将平等保护权延伸至非公民群体。

In 1892, the organization also won a case for Lau Ow Bew, an affluent Chinese merchant in San Francisco who was detained and blocked from reentering the country by U.S. customs officials because he lacked a required certificate proving that, as a merchant, he was exempt from federal Chinese exclusion laws.

1892年，该组织又为旧金山富商刘敖标赢得诉讼。此前，美国海关官员以他未持有证明其作为商人可豁免联邦排华法的必要证书为由，将其扣留并阻止其重新入境。

And the next year, they lost a case for a Chinese laborer in New York City named Fong Yue Ting, who had been arrested and faced deportation for not having a mandatory residence certificate that required the corroboration of at least one white witness. The ruling affirmed the broad scope of federal power to regulate immigration.

次年，他们为纽约市华工冯越亭辩护的案件败诉。冯越亭因未持有强制要求的居住证（需至少一名白人证人作证）被捕，并面临驱逐出境。最高法院的裁决确认了联邦政府在移民管控领域的广泛权力。

Several years later, the Six Companies hired some of the same lawyers to defend Wong Kim Ark.

数年后，六大公司又聘请了部分原班律师为黄金德辩护。

As Chinese people were increasingly shut out of the country, U.S. immigration and naturalization laws began to target the growing numbers of immigrants from Japan, and later, India.

随着华人入境渠道被持续封堵，美国移民与入籍法开始将矛头指向日益增多的日本移民，随后又针对印度移民。

In 1922, the Supreme Court ruled that Takao Ozawa, a Japanese immigrant, was not white within the meaning of the Naturalization Act of 1790 — which restricted who could become an American to “free white persons” — and was therefore ineligible to become a citizen. Even though Ozawa was Christian, spoke English fluently and, as he argued, had skin that was lighter than even some white people, he was not Caucasian, the court said.

1922年，最高法院裁定，日本移民小泽孝雄因不符合1790年《归化法》对“白人”的定义（该法将美国公民资格仅限于授予“自由白人”）而无资格入籍。尽管小泽是基督徒、英语流利，且辩称自己的肤色比部分白人更浅，但法院认定他不属于高加索人种。

The next year, in an infamous case mentioned by Justice Sonia Sotomayor on Wednesday, the court shifted its reasoning. Bhagat Singh Thind, who had immigrated from India and fought in the U.S. Army during World War I, argued that he was technically Caucasian and so was qualified to become a naturalized citizen. But the court said he was not actually white as understood by the “common man.”

次年，在一桩周三被索尼娅·索托马约尔大法官提及的恶名昭彰的判例中，最高法院改变了推理逻辑。印度移民巴哈特·辛格·廷德曾在一战期间服役于美国陆军，他辩称自己严格意义上属于高加索人种，因此符合归化公民资格。但法院认为，按“普通人”的理解，他并非白人。

The ruling led the government to strip citizenship retroactively from Thind, his lawyer and more than 50 other naturalized citizens of Indian heritage.

该裁决导致美国政府追溯性地剥夺了廷德、其律师及另外50多名印度裔归化公民的公民身份。

The court decisions in Thind and Ozawa were ultimately rendered obsolete by Congress, which passed a series of laws lifting naturalization restrictions under a broader effort to improve geopolitical ties during World War II and the Cold War. But some immigration cases involving Asians, most notably Wong Kim Ark, remain the controlling precedent in U.S. immigration law.

最终，国会通过一系列立法，废除了入籍限制，这是二战与冷战期间，美国为改善地缘政治关系推行的更广泛举措的一部分，廷德案与小泽案的裁决因此失效。但部分涉及亚裔的移民判例，尤其是黄金德案，至今仍是美国移民法中的主导先例。

“Many Asian plaintiffs helped to set precedent with immigration cases,” said Bethany Li, executive director of the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund. “Asian American history is immigration history.”

“许多亚裔原告通过移民诉讼帮助树立了先例，”亚美法律辩护与教育基金执行董事贝瑟妮·李表示。“亚裔美国人的历史，就是移民史。”

In 1965, Congress passed landmark legislation that fully abolished immigration quotas based on national origin, opening the door to an unprecedented influx of immigrants from Asia, among other regions.

1965年，国会通过一项里程碑式立法，全面废除基于国籍的移民配额，为亚洲及其他地区前所未有的移民潮打开了大门。

Today, a vast majority of the 24.8 million Asians in America arrived in the last half-century or are descendants of those post-1965 immigrants. As of last year, they made up 7% of the population and were the country’s fastest-growing racial group.

如今，美国2480万亚裔人口中绝大多数是过去半个世纪内入境的移民，或是1965年后移民的后代。截至去年，亚裔占美国总人口的7%，是美国增速最快的族裔群体。

If the Supreme Court eliminates near-universal birthright citizenship, a right affirmed by Wong Kim Ark’s landmark victory, there could be a disproportionate effect on Asians who are in the country lawfully, according to a new study.

一项最新研究显示，如果最高法院废除由黄金德案胜诉确立的、近乎普遍适用的出生地公民权，受影响最严重的将是合法居留在美国的亚裔群体。

But some advocacy groups say that galvanizing Asian American communities around the issue has been a challenge, in part because many were not directly affected by that early period of discrimination and because that history is not widely taught in schools.

但部分倡导组织表示，围绕这一议题动员亚裔社群一直面临挑战，部分原因在于，许多亚裔并未直接受到早期歧视时期的影响，且这段历史在学校教育中鲜有普及。

Many Americans of Asian heritage do not even see themselves as Asian Americans.

许多亚裔美国人甚至不将自己视为亚裔美国人群体的一员。

“Some Asian Americans think, ‘Well, you know that’s about undocumented people, it’s not about us,’ but the reality is, ‘No, we’re all in this together,’” said Aarti Kohli, executive director of the Asian Law Caucus, which was among the groups challenging President Donald Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship.

“有些亚裔美国人会觉得，‘这是关于那些无证移民，跟我们没关系’，但现实是，‘不，我们所有人休戚与共’，”亚美法律中心执行董事阿蒂·科利表示。该中心是挑战特朗普总统出生地公民权行政令的组织之一。

President Trump has unapologetically wielded the power of the United States on the global stage, taking a much more belligerent approach economically and militarily to try to dictate the actions of other countries.

特朗普总统在全球舞台上理直气壮地挥舞着美国的权力大棒，在经济与军事领域采取更为好战的强硬姿态，试图左右他国的行动。

From high tariffs to the war with Iran, Mr. Trump has claimed that this aggressive behavior internationally has only upsides, and that past leaders were fools for refusing to tap into America’s power.

从高额关税到对伊朗开战，特朗普声称，这种在国际上咄咄逼人的做派只有好处，没有坏处；而往届美国领导人不愿动用美国的实力，在他看来愚蠢至极。

But one clear drawback of the strategy is emerging. While many countries have acceded to the president’s demands, some have found a highly effective new way to fight back. Mr. Trump’s aggression has given them the opportunity to test their control over choke points, threatening the United States and the global economy.

但如今，这一策略的一个明显弊端正逐渐显现。尽管许多国家屈从于特朗普的要求，但部分国家已找到极具效力的全新反击方式。特朗普的强硬挑衅恰好给了它们检验自身对战略阻塞点控制权的机会，从而威胁美国与全球经济。

One such choke point is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, which accounts for less than 1 percent of global economic output, has control over the shipping lane that transports a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran at the end of February has blocked shipments of fuel, fertilizer and other goods, sending gas prices sharply higher and spreading anxiety among U.S. farmers and manufacturers.

霍尔木兹海峡便是这样一处战略阻塞点。伊朗的经济总量占全球比重不足1%，却掌控着这条承载全球五分之一石油与天然气运输的航道。自2月底美以联合对伊朗发动袭击以来，这条航道已被封锁，燃料、化肥及其他商品的运输受阻，导致全球油价大幅飙升，在美国的农场主与制造商中引发普遍焦虑。

Another experiment in retaliatory coercion began one year ago on Thursday, when Mr. Trump walked into the Rose Garden and unveiled tariffs on what he called “Liberation Day.” While many governments — even powerful economies like the European Union — complied with U.S. demands, China was a notable exception. Beijing rolled out a licensing system for exports of rare-earth minerals and magnets that has given China unparalleled control over the global manufacturing system.

另一轮报复性反制的实验始于一年前的一个周四。当天，特朗普走进白宫玫瑰园，宣布对多国加征关税，并将那一天称作“解放日”。尽管包括欧盟这样的强势经济体在内的多国政府都顺从了美国的要求，但中国是个明显的例外。北京随即推出稀土矿产与稀土磁体出口许可制度，这使中国对全球制造业体系拥有了无与伦比的控制力。

Makers of cars, semiconductors, fighter jets and other goods — the backbone of a U.S. factory system that Mr. Trump wants to revive — depend on rare earths, most of which are processed in China.

汽车、半导体、战斗机等产品的制造商正是特朗普希望重振的美国制造业支柱，它们都高度依赖稀土，而全球绝大多数稀土都在中国加工。

While China is approving some licenses and allowing some rare earths to flow, supplies for many manufacturers are running short. And China has cut off exports of these materials to companies that work for the U.S. military, leaving them struggling to find other suppliers. Mr. Trump’s decision to delay a visit to China by roughly six weeks until mid-May worried some executives who hoped that his meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, could alleviate the pressure.

尽管中国正在批准部分许可证并放行部分稀土出口，但许多制造商的供应仍然紧张。此外，中国已全面切断为美国军方供货企业的稀土供应，导致这些企业不得不竭力寻找其他供应商。特朗普将原计划访华行程推迟约六周、延至5月中旬，这一决定让部分企业高管忧心忡忡——他们原本寄望于特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的会晤能缓解当前的供应压力。

The difficulties underscore an inconvenient truth for the president: As powerful as the American economy is, its inextricable links with the rest of the world can still bring it to its knees.

这些困境凸显出一个令特朗普难堪的事实：即便美国经济实力再强，它与全球经济千丝万缕的联系，仍可能让它陷入被动、难以招架。

Edward Fishman, the author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” said the rest of the world had seen how the mineral controls had gotten Mr. Trump to back off China last year. Since Mr. Trump threatened in January to take over Greenland, even European officials had been searching for potential choke points in U.S. trade, Mr. Fishman said.

《阻塞点：经济战时代的美国实力》(Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare)一书作者爱德华·菲什曼表示，全球各国都已看到，中国的矿业管控如何迫使特朗普去年在对华政策上做出让步。菲什曼称，自今年1月特朗普威胁接管格陵兰岛以来，就连欧洲官员也开始积极寻找美国贸易体系中的潜在阻塞点。

“The lesson is that the way to deal with American economic coercion is to fight back,” he said. “Iran now is proving that again.”

“现在的教训是，应对美国经济胁迫的办法就是反击，”他说。“伊朗如今正在再次证明这一点。”

China began designing a system of rare-earth controls before the re-election of Mr. Trump, whose strategy is not entirely new: The United States has a long history of weaponizing supply chains, from using its control of the global banking system to punish enemy nations to trying to halt the flow of advanced artificial intelligence technology to China.

中国早在特朗普连任前就开始设计稀土管控体系。而特朗普的这套策略其实并非首创：美国将供应链用作武器的历史由来已久——从利用对全球银行体系的控制权来制裁敌对国家，到试图阻止先进人工智能技术流向中国，手段不一而足。

But Mr. Trump stepped up American antagonism, with tools ranging from tariffs to military strikes. One of his basic principles has been that the United States should do a better job of leveraging its power. He argues that, as the world’s biggest consumer market, the United States can force other countries to trade on terms less favorable for them, and that with the world’s most powerful military, it can remove heads of state from Venezuela to Iran.

但特朗普通过从关税到军事打击等手段，加剧了美国的对抗姿态。他奉行的核心原则之一就是美国必须更充分地利用自身实力。他声称，作为全球最大消费市场，美国可以强迫其他国家接受对自身不利的贸易条款；而凭借全球最强的军事力量，美国可以推翻从委内瑞拉到伊朗的各国政权。

多艘船只停泊在阿曼马斯喀特附近、霍尔木兹海峡附近的海域。该水道关闭导致石油、天然气、化肥及其他货物的运输受阻。

Mr. Trump has dismissed any criticism that those actions violate international alliances, laws or conventions, preferring to see the world in terms of raw power. The countries that have done best against him, like China, seem to recognize that same principle, responding in economically destructive ways to try to force him to back down.

对于外界批评这些行动违背国际同盟、国际法或国际公约的声音，特朗普一概不屑一顾，他更愿意用纯粹的实力逻辑看待世界。而像中国这样能有效对抗他的国家，似乎也深谙这一原则，它们以同样具有经济破坏力的手段反击，迫使特朗普做出让步。

It remains to be seen whether Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz persuades Mr. Trump to call off his campaign. But the disruption appears to be encouraging him to try to bring the war to a quicker end.

伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁能否说服特朗普叫停军事行动，仍有待观察。但目前的干扰似乎正推动他寻求更快结束这场战争。

In an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Mr. Trump said that the United States received “almost no oil” through the strait, and that countries that did “must take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.”

在周三晚间的全国讲话中，特朗普表示，美国通过该海峡进口的石油“几乎为零”，而依赖这条航道的国家“必须主动站出来，保护他们这么迫切依赖的石油”。

“In any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally,” he added.

“无论如何，等这场冲突结束，海峡自然会重新开放。”他补充道。

Oil prices surged and stocks sank on Thursday after the address.

讲话发布后，周四全球油价飙升、股市下跌。

The United States has been more insulated from the economic aftershocks of the shutdown of the strait than closer economies in Europe, Asia and Africa. But more expensive global energy and tighter supplies of fertilizer, aluminum, helium and other products from the Middle East are still pushing up prices and slowing economic activity in the United States, creating a problem for the Republican Party as midterm elections approach. Higher fuel costs are trickling into the price of fresh food, and rates for international shipping have risen sharply, adding to the cost of importing goods to the United States.

相比欧洲、亚洲与非洲等邻近经济体，美国受霍尔木兹海峡封锁引发的经济余波影响相对较小。但全球能源价格上涨、中东地区化肥、铝、氦气等产品供应收紧，仍在推高美国国内物价、放缓经济活动，给中期选举临近的共和党带来麻烦。燃油成本上涨正逐步传导至生鲜食品价格，国际航运费率也大幅攀升，进一步抬高美国进口商品成本。

Analysts at Evercore ISI projected on Wednesday that the U.S. economy would grow 2.2 percent this year, rather than 2.8 percent, because of the war and the accompanying energy shock, while core inflation would tick up 0.2 percentage points.

独立研究机构Evercore ISI的分析师周三预测，受战争及伴随而来的能源冲击影响，美国今年经济增速将从2.8%降至2.2%，核心通胀率则将上升0.2个百分点。

“The U.S. is now heading for a subpar year relative to its potential rather than a strong and above-trend year,” they wrote.

“美国今年的经济表现将低于自身潜在增长水平，而非强劲的超预期增长。”他们在报告中写道。

U.S. manufacturers have been quieter about the effect of Chinese rare-earth restrictions, to avoid panicking investors or angering the Chinese government. But many industries are deeply worried about limitations on those shipments and a thinning supply.

为避免引发投资者恐慌、或激怒中国政府，美国制造商对中国稀土限制的影响大多保持低调。但多个行业对稀土出口管控与供应趋紧的局面深感担忧。

China’s controls are having some effect on companies that make M.R.I. and CT machines that use rare earths to do imaging, as well as those that make the magnets inside the machines, said Geoff Martha, the chief executive of Medtronic, a U.S. medical equipment manufacturer, at an event on Monday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

美国医疗设备制造商美敦力首席执行官杰夫·玛莎周一在华盛顿外交关系协会的活动上表示，中国的稀土管控，已对生产核磁共振、CT扫描仪造成影响，这类设备需用稀土实现成像功能；同时也影响了生产设备内部磁铁的公司。

The industry has engaged with the Trump administration and the Chinese government to try to obtain licenses for exports, he said.

他称，该行业已与特朗普政府及中国政府沟通，争取稀土出口许可。

“What we’re finding, it takes work, it creates supply chain disruption, it’s a distraction. But we’re seeing an ability to work through these so far,” Mr. Martha added.

“我们发现，这需要耗费精力，扰乱了供应链，也分散了企业的注意力。但到目前为止，我们仍有办法逐步解决这些问题，”玛莎还说。

Gina M. Raimondo, who was secretary of commerce in the Biden administration, said at the same event that the Trump administration had seemed surprised by China’s move to weaponize mineral supply chains. She was not, she said.

拜登政府时期的商务部长雷蒙多在同一场活动上表示，特朗普政府似乎对中国将矿产供应链用作武器的举动感到意外，但她说，她本人对此并不意外。

“It is a huge leverage point that China has over the United States,” she said. She argued that there were plenty of other levers that the U.S. should be attuned to.

“这是中国牵制美国的一个巨大筹码。”她说。她还指出，美国还需警惕其他大量筹码。

For a typical artificial intelligence data center, for example, “most Americans would be alarmed of the dependency we have on China,” Ms. Raimondo said, adding, “China is very aware of that, and they’re going to do everything they can do to maintain that advantage.”

例如，对于一个典型的人工智能数据中心而言，“大多数美国人如果知道我们对中国的依赖程度，都会感到震惊，”她还说。“中国对此心知肚明，也会竭尽全力维持这一优势。”

More than a month into a war that he insists will come to an end within two or three weeks, President Donald Trump has put himself in a strategic box from which he is finding no easy exit.

在这场他坚称将在两到三周内结束的战争已过去一个多月之际，特朗普总统把自己置于一个战略困局之中，找不到轻易的脱身之路。

Talks with Iran about a deal to end the conflict, to the degree they are substantive, have so far shown little promise. The key metrics of success described at various points by Trump — keeping Iran from possessing the fuel to make a nuclear weapon, helping the Iranian people topple a government much of the populace despises and reopening the Strait of Hormuz — remain in the distance, at best.

与伊朗就结束冲突而进行的谈判，就其实质性程度而言，到目前为止基本没看到什么希望。特朗普在不同阶段描述的成功关键指标——阻止伊朗拥有制造核武器的燃料、帮助伊朗人民推翻一个广受民众唾弃的政府，以及重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——即便往好了说，也仍然遥不可及。

Iran’s tolerance for pain appears far higher than Trump anticipated, and despite devastating losses to its arsenal, it retains some ability to strike Israel with missiles. It did so even while Trump spoke about the war Wednesday evening.

伊朗对痛苦的承受力似乎远高于特朗普的预期，尽管其军火库遭受重创，但仍保有对以色列实施导弹打击的能力。甚至在特朗普周三晚间谈及战争时，伊朗还发动了袭击。

That televised, prime-time address was intended to reassure Americans that the costs of the war would be transitory, that an end to hostilities and a return to normal economic life were imminent. But the markets responded to his speech with deep skepticism.

那场在黄金时段播出的电视讲话原本意在安抚美国民众，让人相信战争代价只是暂时的，敌对行动将很快结束，经济生活也将恢复正常。但市场对他的反应是深深的怀疑。

Oil prices surged 8% in the hours after his 19-minute address, largely because he described no plan to end what amounts to a tanker hostage crisis in the Strait of Hormuz that is now rippling across the global economy. The strait, he insisted, would “open up naturally” when the conflict is over.

在这段19分钟的讲话之后数小时，油价飙升了8%，很大程度上是因为他并未提出任何方案来解决正在波及全球经济、如今几乎演变为霍尔木兹海峡油轮挟持危机的问题。他只是坚持称，海峡会在冲突结束后“自然开放”。

At this stage, Trump appears to be offering a host of sometimes contradictory paths forward and faces the possibility that at the end of his own two-to-three-week window, nothing much will have changed. And his promise to send Iran back to the “Stone Ages” if it did not agree to his terms — which he did not specify Wednesday night — would amount to an expansion of the war, not a winding down.

在这个阶段，特朗普似乎提出了一系列有时相互矛盾的出路，并面临着一个可能性：在他自己设定的两到三周窗口期结束时，局势可能不会有太大改变。而他承诺如果伊朗不同意他的条件——他在周三晚并未具体说明——就将伊朗打回“石器时代”，这将意味着战争的升级，而非逐步结束。

Trump has never been troubled by internal contradictions, of course. He is the master of raising and dispensing with arguments to fit the moment. In the opening moments of the war, he urged Iranians to rise up and take over their government, but he hasn’t mentioned that approach since, other than to say it would probably lead to the slaughter of the Iranian protesters.

特朗普当然从来不会被自身的内在矛盾所困扰。他善于根据当下需要提出或抛弃各种论点，堪称此道高手。战争刚开始时，他曾呼吁伊朗民众起来推翻政府，但此后便不再提及这一方式——除了表示这可能导致伊朗抗议者遭到屠杀之外。

On Wednesday evening, he said that “regime change was not our goal,” although he had called for just that after the initial attack by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. He now claims that “regime change has occurred because of their original leaders’ death,” as if a change of personnel was same as a change of regime. (When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died in 1989, only to be succeeded by another supreme leader, few argued that it constituted a change of the governing structure.)

周三晚间，他称“政权更迭并非我们的目标”，尽管在2月28日美以发动最初打击后，他曾明确呼吁政权更迭。他如今又声称，“政权更迭已经发生，因为他们原有领导人已经死了”，仿佛人员更替就等同于政权更迭。（1989年霍梅尼去世、由另一位最高领袖接任时，几乎没有人认为这构成了治理结构的改变。）

In weaving back and forth, Trump is relying on techniques he honed in the New York real estate world, where he often succeeded at creating his own reality. But war is different. The enemy gets to shape the environment as well, and the Iranians apparently sense they can wait Trump out. And while Iran has precious few allies — even its biggest oil customer, China, has kept its distance — Iranian leaders seem to be counting on declining stock markets and rising oil prices to speed Trump’s exit from the conflict.

在反复摇摆中，特朗普依靠的是他在纽约房地产界磨练出的那套手法——在那里，他经常能成功地创造出属于自己的现实。但战争不同。敌人同样拥有塑造环境的能力，而伊朗人显然觉得自己能耗到特朗普认输。尽管伊朗的盟友少得可怜——就连其最大的石油买家中国也与其保持距离——但伊朗领导人似乎正指望股市下跌和油价上涨来加速特朗普退出这场冲突。

So whether the U.S. forces pull back in two or three weeks, as Trump predicted, or whether Washington escalates the fighting and gets stuck, here is a look at the challenges that seem unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

因此，无论美军会如特朗普所预言的那样在两到三周内撤出，还是华盛顿会升级战事并深陷其中，以下这些挑战看起来都不太可能在短期内得到解决。

‘Shortly, Very Shortly’

“很快，非常快”

That is how Trump described on Wednesday night the length of time required to “complete all of America’s military objectives.” Earlier that day, he said it would be “two weeks,” or maybe just a bit longer, before he began to withdraw.

这是特朗普周三晚间用来形容“完成美国所有军事目标所需时间”的说法。就在当天早些时候，他还表示，大约“两周”，或者稍长一点时间后，他就会开始撤军。

Set aside for the moment the fact that Trump frequently criticized former President Joe Biden for setting a firm deadline for exiting Afghanistan, saying such information would only help the enemy. But Trump had earlier set a deadline of his own to leave Afghanistan. And in the case of Iran,  Trump’s goal is to reassure the markets that normality, and an open strait, is on the horizon.

暂且不论特朗普曾频繁批评前总统拜登为撤离阿富汗设定明确期限（称此类信息只会对敌人有利）这一事实。实际上，特朗普早前也曾为撤离阿富汗设定过自己的期限。而在伊朗问题上，特朗普的目标是让市场放心：正常状态以及海峡的开放指日可待。

But at other moments, he has described military missions that could stretch to months or years. He has mused openly about “taking” Kharg Island, where Iran loads 90% of its oil bound for export. “I don’t think they have any defense,” he told The Financial Times. “We could take it very easily.”

然而在其他时刻，他描述的军事任务却可能延长至数月甚至数年。他曾公开表示考虑“拿下”哈尔克岛——伊朗90%的出口原油都在那里装船。“我认为他们没有任何防御能力，”他告诉《金融时报》。“我们可以轻而易举地拿下它。”

Holding it, however, is another matter. The island is just 16 miles from the Iranian coast. The oil pipelines feeding the port would be an easy target for sabotage.

然而，拿下是一回事，守住则是另一回事。该岛距离伊朗海岸仅25公里，向港口输送石油的管道很容易成为破坏行动的目标。

Trump not only needs to get the strait open; he needs to keep it open. In the same speech in which he said the problem would more or less take care of itself, he also told allies who rely on getting their oil through the strait that they should “build up some delayed courage” and go “grab it and cherish it.”

特朗普不仅需要让海峡开放，还需要保持其开放。在同一场讲话中，他一方面表示问题大致会自行解决，另一方面又对那些依赖该海峡运输石油的盟友说，他们应该“鼓起一点迟来的勇气”，去“把它夺过来并守住”。

But the Europeans are so angry at him — for not consulting them before initiating a conflict that triggered an economic and energy crisis, for conducting what many of them consider to be an illegal attack — that they are meeting this week to discuss their next steps without the presence of American representatives. “This is not our war, and we’re not going to get dragged into it,” Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, said Wednesday.

但欧洲方面对他极为不满——因为他在发动这场引发经济与能源危机的冲突前没有征求他们的意见，也因为他发动了一场他们中许多人认为是非法的攻击。本周，欧洲国家将召开会议讨论下一步行动，但没有美国代表参加。“这不是我们的战争，我们不会被拖进去，”英国首相斯塔默周三表示。

Trump can barely contain his fury at such remarks, which have led to his threat to leave NATO. Yet in an Easter-related event at the White House on Wednesday, which was closed to the press but was videotaped and mistakenly posted to YouTube by the White House, Trump seemed to acknowledge that the United States would need some help. He mockingly referred to phone conversations with President Emmanuel Macron of France.

特朗普几乎难以掩饰对这些言论的愤怒，甚至威胁要退出北约。不过，在周三白宫一场与复活节相关的活动上（该活动未对媒体开放，但被录像并被白宫误传到了YouTube上），特朗普似乎也承认，美国需要一些帮助。他还带着嘲讽地提及与法国总统马克龙的通话。

“I said, ‘No, no, I don’t need after the war is won, Emmanuel,’” Trump said, recalling his conversation. In fact, his aides concede, any patrol of the strait could last for years.

“我说，‘不，不，埃马纽埃尔，我不需要在赢得战争后再让你帮忙，’”特朗普回忆道。事实上，他的助手们也承认，任何海峡巡逻任务都可能持续数年。

‘I Don’t Care About That’

“我不在乎那个”

1962年，肯尼迪总统与空军参谋长柯蒂斯·李梅上将在佛罗里达观看B-52轰炸机。

It was only a few weeks ago that Trump repeated, in a social media post, his primary goal for the war: “Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability,” he wrote, “and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation.”

就在几周前，特朗普还在社交媒体上重申他这场战争的首要目标：“绝不允许伊朗哪怕接近拥有核能力，”他写道，“并始终确保美国能够迅速而有力地应对这种情况。”

None of the past five American presidents would disagree with that goal, which has been attempted via many paths. The United States sabotaged Iran’s nuclear centrifuges during the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. Obama negotiated a broad accord in which Iran gave up 97% of its uranium stockpile. In his first term, Trump withdrew from that accord, imposing crushing sanctions on Iran but paving the way for the country to build up its current stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.

过去五位美国总统都不会反对这一目标，他们曾尝试过多种路径来实现它。在奥巴马和布什执政期间，美国曾对伊朗的核离心机进行过破坏。奥巴马谈判达成了一项广泛协议，让伊朗放弃了97%的铀库存。在特朗普的第一个任期内，他退出了该协议，对伊朗实施了严厉制裁，却也为伊朗积累如今接近武器级的浓缩铀库存铺平了道路。

When the war started Feb. 28, Trump justified it by making an argument that the presence of that stockpile, enriched to 60% purity, was intolerable, even if it was in tunnels whose entrances were buried under the rubble created by a U.S. air attack in June 2025. U.S. intelligence officials said there was no evidence that the Iranians had recovered the casks of nuclear material, though everyone agreed that sooner or later, the Iranians would likely dig them out.

当战争于2月28日爆发时，特朗普给出的理由是：伊朗拥有纯度高达60%的浓缩铀库存是不可容忍的——即便这些库存存放在地下隧道中，而隧道的入口已在2025年6月美军的空袭中被掩埋在废墟之下。美国情报官员表示，目前没有证据表明伊朗人已经取回了那些核材料桶，尽管所有人都认为，伊朗人迟早会把它们挖出来。

So it was pretty shocking to hear Trump, on Wednesday morning, telling Reuters in an interview that he didn’t really care about the stockpile because it is “so far underground.” What made his statement particularly stunning was that Trump has spoken for more than a decade about the need to block Iran from producing uranium, which it could stockpile and enrich to a form usable in a bomb. It has been a constant theme for Trump as he has made the case that a nuclear-armed Iran would be an existential threat to the United States and the world.

因此，周三上午听到特朗普在接受路透社采访时表示他并不真正在乎这批库存，因为它“埋得太深了”，着实令人震惊。特朗普的言论尤其令人瞠目结舌之处在于，十多年来他一直在谈论必须阻止伊朗生产铀——伊朗可以储存铀并进一步浓缩成制造核武器所需的材料。这一直是他反复强调的论点：一个拥有核武器的伊朗将对美国乃至世界构成生存性威胁。

“We’ll always be watching it by satellite,” the president said. He repeated a similar line in his speech.

“我们会一直用卫星监视它，”总统说道。他在演讲中也重复了类似的说法。

今年2月卫星拍摄的伊朗伊斯法罕核设施的受损情况。

His statement naturally raised the question about whether he had deliberately hyped the threat that an Iranian nuclear bomb was “imminent” — an echo of the Bush administration’s case for invading Iraq in 2003.

他的这番表态自然引发了一个疑问：他是否刻意夸大了伊朗核武器“迫在眉睫”的威胁——这让人联想到布什政府在2003年为入侵伊拉克所提出的理由。

More than half a century after the United States put humans on the moon, it is once again locked in a space race. This one is with China.

在实现人类登月半个多世纪后，美国再次卷入了一场太空竞赛，而这一次的对手，是中国。

NASA sent astronauts on a lunar flyby on Wednesday, a milestone toward grander ambitions. Both the United States and China want to build outposts around the moon’s south pole and hope to tap frozen water, hydrogen and helium there. Both countries plan to build nuclear reactors to power lunar bases from which they can launch missions into deep space.

NASA于周三将航天员送入绕月轨道，这是迈向更宏伟目标的一个里程碑。中美两国都计划在月球南极附近建立前哨基地，希望开采那里的冰冻水、氢与氦资源；双方均规划建造核反应堆，为月球基地供能，并从那里发射深空探测任务。

It is a new frontier, and whoever gets there first will have a big say in setting the rules.

这是一片全新的前沿领域，谁先抵达，谁就将在规则制定中拥有更大的话语权。

NASA’s program, known as Artemis, has hit repeated snags. The United States wants to be back on the moon by 2028, two years ahead of China’s target, but even NASA acknowledges that it may not win.

NASA的计划名为“阿尔忒弥斯”，屡屡遭遇阻碍。美国计划在2028年前重返月球，比中国的既定目标早两年，但就连NASA自己也承认，这场竞赛它未必能赢。

“They may be early,” Jared Isaacman, the NASA administrator, said last week. “And recent history suggests we might be late.”

“他们很可能提前完成计划，”NASA局长贾里德·艾萨克曼上周表示。“而过往的记录告诉我们，我们大概率会延期。”

China is pursuing its lunar ambitions with a singular, formidable focus. Its program has several advantages over its American rivals.

中国正以一种独特而强大的专注力推进着自己的登月愿景。与美国的竞争对手相比，中国的探月工程拥有多项独特优势。

Experts say China’s edge lies in its centralized control, which allows it to plan and fund projects for decades at a time. Its robotic space missions have already gone where the United States has not.

专家表示，中国的核心优势在于集中的管控机制，这让它能够为项目制定数十年的长期规划和资金投入。中国的机器人航天探测任务已经抵达了美国从未涉足的区域。

China is the only nation to land on and retrieve samples from the far side of the moon, the hemisphere that always faces away from Earth. This summer, China’s seventh robotic mission, Chang’e 7, will explore the lunar south pole.

中国是全球唯一一个在月球背面（即永远背向地球的一面）实现软着陆并完成采样返回的国家。今年夏天，中国第七次月球机器人探测任务“嫦娥七号”将奔赴月球南极开展探测。

It helps China that its immediate ambition is leaner. Chinese astronauts plan to land on the relatively accessible near side of the moon. That’s where Neil Armstrong took “one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind” in 1969.

另一个对中国有利的因素是，中国现阶段的核心目标更为务实。中国航天员计划率先在登陆难度相对较低的月球近侧着陆，1969年尼尔·阿姆斯特朗正是在这里，迈出了“对个人来说是一小步，对全人类来说是巨大的一步”。

American astronauts are aiming for the moon’s south pole.

美国航天员的目标则是月球南极。

A recent program overhaul could speed Artemis along. The new plan includes more launches to test components, gain confidence and lower risks, Mr. Isaacman said. After returning astronauts to the moon, NASA plans to launch missions every six months and sustain a presence there.

近期的项目调整有望加快阿尔忒弥斯计划的推进节奏。艾萨克曼表示，新方案包含更多发射任务，用于测试组件、增强信心、降低风险。在实现航天员重返月球后，NASA计划每半年执行一次发射任务，并在月球上维持存在。

“This time the goal is not flags and footprints,” Mr. Isaacman said. “This time the goal is to stay.”

“这一次，我们的目标不是插上国旗、留下脚印，”艾萨克曼说。“这一次，我们的目标是长久驻留。”

China is pursuing similar goals through two programs that will likely merge: Crewed missions under the military’s purview, and civilian robotic missions.

中国正通过两个可能合二为一的项目追求类似目标：分别是军方主导的载人航天任务，以及民用领域的机器人任务。

Both programs rely on components built mainly by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, an enterprise that combines industry and military expertise. That means they share key technologies.

这两大项目所使用的核心组件，主要由中国航天科技集团有限公司研制生产。这家企业兼具工业与军事专长，意味着两大项目共享关键技术。

NASA relies more heavily on private vendors.

NASA则更依赖私营商业航天供应商。

Yuqi Qian, a lunar geologist at the University of Hong Kong who works on China’s lunar missions, said that because China’s first crewed mission is treading some of the same ground covered by Apollo missions long ago, scientists have more freedom to experiment. Chinese exploration programs will keep moving at a cadence set years earlier, regardless of what Artemis does, he said.

参与中国探月任务的香港大学月球地质学家钱煜奇表示，由于中国首次载人登月任务在一定程度上重走阿波罗任务多年前走过的路，科研人员拥有更大的实验自由度。他表示，无论阿尔忒弥斯计划进展如何，中国的探月工程都将按照数年前定下的节奏稳步推进。

“There is actually no burden on the Chinese side,” Dr. Qian said in an interview. “We are doing this more freely.”

“中方其实没有任何压力，”钱煜奇在采访中表示。“我们更自由地开展这项工作。”

“I don’t think China regards this as a race,” he added.

“我不认为中国把这件事当成一场竞赛，”他还说。

Here’s what we know about China’s crewed lunar mission, and how its components compare to their NASA counterparts.

以下是我们所了解的关于中国载人登月任务的详细信息，以及其组件与NASA对应装备的对比。

The Launcher

运载火箭

China plans to use a government-built rocket, the Long March 10, for the moon landing. It is about as tall as a 30-story building and has seven engines at its base, the section known as the first stage.

中国计划使用政府研制的火箭“长征十号”执行载人登月任务。火箭高度约相当于30层楼，其底部（即芯一级）配备七台发动机。

In initial tests, Chinese scientists fired up the rocket’s engines while it was tethered in place. Then, in February, they fired five of the seven engines and launched the first stage to a height of just over 65 miles.

在前期测试中，中国科研人员完成了火箭发动机的地面系留点火试验。今年2月，科研人员完成七台发动机中的五台联合点火试验，将火箭芯一级发射至约合105公里的高度。

It splashed down in the sea, where scientists retrieved it.

最终箭体在海上溅落，被科研人员成功回收。

China is behind the United States on rocket technology, a gap that has slowed its bid to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network in low-earth orbit. China does not have a reusable rocket to match SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

中国的火箭技术整体落后于美国，这一差距也拖慢了它在近地轨道与SpaceX的星链卫星网络竞争的步伐。目前，中国尚无一款可重复使用火箭能对标SpaceX的猎鹰九号火箭。

Parts of the Long March 10 may eventually become reusable, but that matters less for lunar missions, which are less frequent than launches to put satellites in orbit.

长征十号的部分组件未来有望实现可重复使用，但这一点对登月任务的影响相对有限因为登月任务的发射频次，远低于近地轨道卫星发射任务。

The American launcher — the Space Launch System — is a marked improvement on the system that first sent astronauts to the moon. It is a powerful and complicated rocket cobbled together from components made by NASA and multiple contractors.

美国的运载火箭是太空发射系统(SLS)，相较于初代送人类登月的火箭，实现了显著的改进。这款火箭动力强劲、系统复杂，由NASA与多家承包商制造的组件整合而成。

The rocket has not been used many times, but on Wednesday, it blasted off for its first crewed mission against a backdrop of a clear blue sky. It was a big win for NASA and more frequent launches in the new Artemis plan are expected to work out any remaining kinks.

这款火箭的实际发射次数并不多，但在周三，它搭载航天员执行了首次载人任务发射，在澄澈的蓝天下直冲云霄。这是NASA的一次重大胜利，而按照阿尔忒弥斯计划的新方案，后续更频繁的发射将有助于解决剩余的技术问题。。

“It’s a big celebration in launch control for the rocket guys,” Amit Kshatriya, the NASA associate administrator, said after the launch.

“发射控制室里，火箭研发团队的所有人都在热烈庆祝，”NASA副局长阿米特·克沙特里亚在发射成功后表示。

“The rocket guys can go out and play now,” he said.

“火箭团队现在可以出去放松一下了，”他说。

The Spacecraft

飞船

China is developing a new spacecraft called the Mengzhou or “Dream Boat” that can carry up to seven astronauts. It is designed for both lunar missions and trips to the Chinese space station, about 280 miles above Earth.

中国正在研发新一代飞船“梦舟”，最多可搭载七名航天员，设计兼顾月球探测任务与距地约450公里的中国空间站往返任务。

The spacecraft will carry astronauts to a lunar orbit. Once there, it will rendezvous with a lander that will take the astronauts to the moon’s surface. China is planning to conduct the moon mission with two launches, in part because it does not have a big enough launcher.

该飞船将把航天员送入环月轨道，抵达预定轨道后与登月着陆器完成交会对接，再由着陆器将航天员送至月球表面。中国计划通过两次发射完成一次完整的载人登月任务，部分原因在于目前尚无足够大的运载火箭。

China will test the Dream Boat’s ability to rendezvous and dock with the Chinese space station later this year. Similar in-orbit meet-ups have already been tested in robotic missions to the moon.

今年晚些时候，中国将测试梦舟飞船与中国空间站的交会对接能力。类似的在轨交会对接技术已在机器人探月任务中完成验证。

Dream Boat passed its most recent test, in February, when it demonstrated its ability to abort within the first minutes of a launch. The spacecraft successfully detached from a rocket under maximum pressure conditions, according to government media.

今年2月，梦舟飞船完成了最新一次测试，验证了发射前数分钟内的中止任务能力。据官方媒体报道，在火箭在最大压力条件下，飞船成功与火箭分离。

The American spacecraft, Orion, was first tested in 2014 and is farther along in its development. Orion carried the four astronauts on the Artemis II mission on Wednesday. NASA will test its life support and environmental control systems during this mission.

美国的猎户座飞船于2014年完成首次测试，研发进度更为领先。在周三的阿尔忒弥斯二号任务中，猎户座飞船搭载四名航天员升空，NASA将在本次任务中，全面测试飞船的生命支持系统与环境控制系统。

The Lander

登月着陆器

Anyone who has watched footage of the Apollo 11 mission will remember the lander — a scientific wonder that looked like a janky assemblage of golden foil and flimsy metal.

任何看过阿波罗11号任务影像的人都会对那款着陆器印象深刻——它是一项科学奇迹，外观却像用金箔与轻薄金属板材拼凑而成的简易装置。

China’s version of the lunar lander, called Lanyue or “Embracing the Moon,” incorporates decades of improvements.

中国的登月着陆器名为“揽月”，融合了数十年的技术改进。

According to the mission design, after the astronauts hop aboard in orbit, the lander will head to the lunar surface. There, it will serve them as a temporary home, data center and energy source.

根据任务设计，航天员在环月轨道进入着陆器后，着陆器将带着他们降落到月球表面。在月面停留期间，着陆器将作为航天员的临时居所、数据处理中心与能源供给站。

For the astronauts’ return, the lander will take off and rendezvous with the spacecraft in the moon’s orbit .

航天员完成月面任务准备返回时，着陆器将从月面起飞，在环月轨道与载人飞船完成交会对接。

China tested a prototype in August, navigating to a surface that was built to imitate the moon’s craters and bumps.

去年8月，中国测试了一台原型机，在模拟月球陨石坑与崎岖地形的试验场完成了导航。

The U.S. does not have a lander yet, in part because of the complexity of its planned mission. SpaceX is developing its version, Starship, and will test it again in April. Blue Origin is developing another lander.

美国目前尚无可用的登月着陆器，部分原因是其规划的任务复杂度极高。SpaceX正在研发其星舰着陆器，计划于今年4月开展新一轮测试；蓝色起源公司也在研发另一款着陆器。

NASA plans to launch a mission called Artemis III next year that will test the landers' operation closer to Earth. The agency will go with whichever lander is ready first, according to Lori Glaze, a NASA official.

NASA计划在明年执行阿尔忒弥斯三号任务，在更接近地球的环境中测试着陆器的运行情况。NASA官员洛里·格雷兹表示，哪款着陆器率先就绪，就优先选用哪一款。

The Spacesuits

舱外航天服

Chinese astronauts will be fitted with spacesuits called Wangyu or “Gazing into the Cosmos” for their spacewalks.

中国航天员执行太空行走活动时将身着名为“望宇”的新一代舱外航天服。

Wangyu suits will be slimmer versions of the spacesuits used on the Chinese space station. They will have an anti-glare visor, a camera on each side of the helmet and a control consol on the chest.

望宇航天服是中国空间站现役舱外航天服的轻量化改进版本，配备防眩光面窗，头盔两侧各搭载一台摄像机，胸前设有操作控制台。

The suits’ design will echo traditional armor to make the astronauts look “more spirited and imposing,” one official told government media. The spacesuits are expected to undergo more testing this year.

一名官方人员对官媒表示，航天服的设计借鉴了中国传统铠甲的元素，让航天员看起来“更硬朗刚毅”。这款航天服预计将于今年开展更多测试。

The United States will upgrade its suits to make them more flexible and provide greater protection from the harsh environment on the moon. NASA has contracted for spacesuits that can support astronauts for up to eight hours outside their vehicle.

美国将对现役航天服进行全面升级，提升服装的灵活度，为航天员提供更强的防护，抵御月球的恶劣环境。NASA已签约采购的新款航天服，可支持航天员在舱外连续活动最长八小时。

Multiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the U.S.-Israeli war, according to U.S. officials.

据美国官员称，多个美国情报机构近日评估认为，伊朗政府目前不愿就结束与美以的战争进行实质性谈判。

The assessments say the Iranian government believes it is in a strong position in the war and does not have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands, the officials said. And while Iran is willing to keep channels open, they said, it does not trust the United States and does not think President Trump is serious about negotiations.

这些评估指出，伊朗政府认为自己在这场战争中处于有利地位，因此无需接受美国的外交要求。评估还认为，尽管伊朗愿意保持沟通渠道畅通，但并不信任美国，认为特朗普总统对谈判缺乏诚意。

In the last year, Mr. Trump has ordered attacks on Iran twice in the middle of negotiations over the country’s nuclear program.

在过去一年中，特朗普两次在伊朗核计划谈判期间下令对伊朗发动打击。

The assessments align with recent statements from Iranian officials, who reject Mr. Trump’s assertion that the two sides are making progress in discussions mediated by other countries. A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that the government in Tehran had not asked for a cease-fire, despite a statement from Mr. Trump that morning that it had, an Iranian state news agency reported.

这些评估与伊朗官员近期的表态一致，伊朗方面否认了特朗普关于双方在其他国家斡旋的谈判中取得进展的说法。据伊朗官方通讯社报道，伊朗外交部发言人周三表示，德黑兰政府并未要求停火，尽管特朗普当天上午声称伊朗已提出停火请求。

Mr. Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. military would wrap up its campaign against Iran in two to three weeks. But any decision by Iran that it should continue fighting would complicate that objective. The president said in a speech on Wednesday night that “if there is no deal,” the U.S. military would strike “each and every one” of Iran’s power plants, an act that would be widely considered a war crime.

特朗普周二对记者表示，美军将在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动。但伊朗若决定继续作战，将使这一目标变得复杂起来。总统在周三晚间的讲话中表示，“如果没有达成协议”，美军将打击伊朗“每一座”发电厂，此举将被广泛视为战争罪行。

The Iranian government could engage diplomatically under the right conditions, said two Iranian officials and a Pakistani official. Tehran wants to see that Washington is willing to talk seriously about ending the war and not just negotiate a temporary cease-fire, they said. They added that the language in public statements from Iran has been harsher than that of private messages it has passed to the United States.

两名伊朗官员和一名巴基斯坦官员表示，在适当条件下，伊朗政府仍可能进行外交接触。他们表示，德黑兰希望看到华盛顿愿意认真讨论结束战争，而不仅仅是谈一个临时停火协议。他们还说，伊朗对外公开表态的措辞要比通过私下渠道向美国传递的信息强硬。

Those officials and American ones spoke on the condition of anonymity for this article because of the sensitivities around wartime diplomacy and intelligence.

由于战时外交和情报问题的敏感性，这些官员及美方官员均要求匿名接受本文采访。

伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官的葬礼于周三举行。革命卫队内部的一个强硬派系已成为政府中最有影响力的声音，该派系更不可能做出让步。

Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Wednesday that Iran’s “New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!” But he said he would not consider that until Iran allowed ships to safely cross the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian military has effectively closed by attacking oil tankers.

特朗普周三在社交媒体上写道，伊朗“新政权的总统远没有前任们激进，也聪明得多，刚刚向美利坚合众国请求停火！”。但他表示，在伊朗允许船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡之前，他不会考虑这一请求。通过袭击油轮，伊朗军方实际上已使该海峡处于关闭状态。

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said on Wednesday that Mr. Trump’s claim that his country had asked for a cease-fire was “false and baseless,” according to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, or IRIB, the state news organization.

据伊朗官方的伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台报道，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃周三表示，特朗普关于伊朗请求停火的说法是“虚假且毫无根据的”。

The dilemma over the strait has become a pivot point in the war, as its closure roils global markets and forces countries around the world to make plans to ration fuel.

霍尔木兹海峡的困局已成为事态发展的关键节点，海峡的关闭扰乱了全球市场，迫使世界各国制定燃料配给计划。

It was also unclear to whom Mr. Trump was referring when he said “New Regime President.” The initial attacks by the United States and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some senior officials, but the president of Iran since 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian, is alive and remains in office. Iranian clerics have appointed a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the hard-line son of the deceased ayatollah who suffered leg injuries in the first strikes and has not been seen in public, according to Iranian and Israeli officials.

目前也不清楚特朗普所说的“新政权的总统”具体指谁。美国和以色列的初期袭击击毙了伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及一些高级官员，但自2024年起担任伊朗总统的马苏德·佩泽希齐扬仍在世且仍在任。据伊朗和以色列官员称，伊朗神职人员已任命新的最高领袖，即已故最高领袖的强硬派儿子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，他在首轮袭击中腿部受伤，此后未再公开露面。

The United States and Iran are exchanging messages through intermediaries and perhaps directly, but are not in negotiations over terms of a cease-fire or ending the war, U.S. and Iranian officials said.

美国和伊朗官员表示，美伊双方正通过中间渠道甚至直接渠道互通信息，但双方并未就停火条款或结束战争展开谈判。

Mr. Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, on Wednesday released a letter addressed to the American people that suggested diplomacy might be possible, while also saying Iran would defy hostile powers. It was unclear whether the letter represented a consensus among Iranian leaders. On Tuesday, Mr. Pezeshkian said that the Trump administration’s attacks during previous negotiations demonstrated that the United States “does not believe in diplomacy and is merely seeking to impose its own interests.”

伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬周三发布了一封致美国民众的公开信，暗示外交途径仍有可能，同时也表示伊朗将对抗敌对势力。目前尚不清楚这封信是否代表伊朗领导层的共识。周二，佩泽希齐扬表示，特朗普政府在此前谈判期间发动攻击，说明美国“并不相信外交，只图自身利益”。

Mr. Trump has repeatedly spoken of the possibility of ending the war with a diplomatic settlement, but he has also threatened to escalate the war and expand the range of U.S. targets to energy infrastructure and desalination plants, attacks that many legal experts say would be war crimes.

特朗普多次提及通过外交途径结束战争的可能性，但同时也威胁要升级战争，将美国的打击范围扩大至能源基础设施和海水淡化厂——许多法律专家表示，这类攻击将构成战争罪。

The intelligence assessments, which appear in multiple reports, have been consistent since the beginning of the conflict, one official said.

一名官员表示，多份报告中的情报评估自冲突爆发以来一直保持一致。

Senior Iranian officials continue to resist making the kinds of concessions on its nuclear program and ballistic missile production that the Trump administration has demanded.

伊朗高级官员仍然拒绝在核计划和弹道导弹生产方面作出特朗普政府所要求的那类让步。

Iran says it has a right to build a civilian nuclear program by enriching uranium, which U.S. officials oppose. And Iranian officials see the military’s ballistic missiles as the country’s main form of deterrence, analysts say. Iranian officials perceive the United States and Israel pressuring Iran to give up both of those as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.

伊朗表示，其通过铀浓缩发展民用核计划是正当权利，但这一点遭到美国官员反对。分析人士称，伊朗方面将军方的弹道导弹视为国家主要的威慑手段。伊朗官员认为，美国和以色列施压要求放弃这两者，是对伊朗国家主权的侵犯。

上海的储油罐。中国是伊朗石油的最大买家。

Mr. Trump and his top aides have vacillated in their public statements on their war goals and whether the U.S. military has already achieved them, which complicates any efforts at diplomacy.

特朗普及其高级助手在公开声明中，关于战争目标以及美军是否已实现这些目标的问题上摇摆不定，这使得任何外交努力都变得复杂。

In recent days, Mr. Trump has said that the United States has already destroyed two regimes in Iran in this war, and that a third, more compliant one is now in place. However, the current government, led by Mr. Khamenei, remains theocratic, authoritarian and anti-American, and has vowed to carry on the fight against the Americans.

近日，特朗普表示，美国在这场战争中已经摧毁了伊朗的两个政权，而第三个、更为顺从的政权现已就位。然而，由哈梅内伊领导的现任政府仍然是神权专制、反美的，并誓言将继续与美国人作战。

Mr. Trump has pointed to other goals: He has said he wants to seize Iran’s oil, and he brings up the nuclear program regularly. He also has discussed with U.S. military leaders whether American troops could enter Iran to seize a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that is believed to be in tunnels sealed by rubble as a result of American airstrikes last June.

特朗普还提出了其他目标：他表示希望掌控伊朗的石油资源，并经常提及核计划问题。他还曾与美军领导人讨论，是否派遣美军进入伊朗，夺取一批被认为储存在隧道中的高浓铀库存——这些隧道因去年6月美军空袭而被碎石封堵。

Iranian officials think they are fighting for the government’s very survival, given the strength of the American and Israeli attack, according to current and former officials. Some Iranian officials are skeptical that any peace deal would be lasting. Their leadership fears Israel could carry out a new attack months later even if Iran were to enter into a deal, U.S. officials said.

现任及前任官员称，鉴于美以攻击的强度，伊朗官员认为自己是在为政权的生存而战。一些伊朗官员对任何和平协议的持久性持怀疑态度。美国官员表示，伊朗领导层担心，即便达成协议，以色列也可能在数月后再次发动攻击。

The U.S. intelligence assessments saying that Iran is not currently ready to make a deal have not been previously reported. The Washington Post earlier reported that U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iranian officials think they have the upper hand in the war.

有关美国情报评估认为伊朗目前不准备达成协议的报道此前尚未公开。《华盛顿邮报》早些时候报道称，美国情报机构评估认为，伊朗官员认为自己在这场战争中占了上风。

Pakistan has become an intermediary in the diplomatic efforts because of ties between Pakistani and Iranian military leaders. In recent days, Pakistan has persuaded China to join it in publicly calling for an end to the war. China has commercial and military ties to Iran and is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, but has been reluctant to engage in substantial diplomacy on the war.

由于巴基斯坦与伊朗军方领导人之间的密切联系，巴基斯坦已成为外交斡旋的中间方。近日，巴基斯坦说服中国与其一道公开呼吁结束战争。中国与伊朗在商业和军事上都有联系，也是伊朗石油的最大买家，但一直不愿就这场战争展开实质性的外交斡旋。

China and Pakistan put out a joint five-point statement on Tuesday that called for, among other things, a cessation of hostilities and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. Iran has been letting China-bound ships cross the strait, but countries across Asia and elsewhere are starting to plan for dire fuel shortages.

中国和巴基斯坦周二发布了一份五点联合声明，其中呼吁停止敌对行动，并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的航运。伊朗目前允许前往中国的船只通过该海峡，但亚洲及其他地区的国家已开始为严重的燃料短缺做准备。

Asked whether China could be a guarantor of a diplomatic agreement, Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement that “China supports all efforts conducive to easing tensions, de-escalating the situation and restoring dialogue.”

当被问及中国是否可以成为外交协议的担保方时，中国驻华盛顿大使馆的发言人刘鹏宇在声明中表示：“中国支持一切有助于缓和紧张局势、推动局势降温并恢复对话的努力。”

“We call on parties to start peace talks as soon as possible,” he added. “We stand ready to enhance communication and coordination with Pakistan and others to jointly work for a cease-fire and peace and stability in the region.”

他还补充说：“我们呼吁有关各方尽快启动和平谈判。中方愿同巴基斯坦及其他各方加强沟通协调，共同推动停火，实现地区和平稳定。”

President Trump asserted the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran was “nearing completion” during a prime-time address on Wednesday, even as he offered no clear path out of the war and committed to bombing the nation “back to the Stone Ages where they belong.”

特朗普总统在周三的黄金时段全国讲话中宣称，美以针对伊朗的战争“即将结束”，但他并未给出清晰的战争退出路径，同时还放话要将这个国家炸回“它本该待着的石器时代”。

Mr. Trump did not make any revealing announcements in the speech. Instead, he described the military action against Iran as an overwhelming success and seemingly pleaded for concerned Americans uneasy about its costs and open-ended timeline to “keep this conflict in perspective.”

特朗普在讲话中并未发布任何具有实质性内容的声明，反而将对伊朗的军事行动形容为一场压倒性的胜利，同时似乎在呼吁那些对战争成本和无期限战事感到不安的美国民众“客观看待这场战事”。

Mr. Trump ticked through the durations of the United States’ involvement in past conflicts, including the wars in Iraq and Vietnam, for the purpose of reminding Americans that the campaign against Iran had just entered its second month. But as he has done throughout the war, Mr. Trump did not offer a clear exit strategy and issued ambiguous and conflicting statements weaving diplomatic overtures with threats of escalating attacks.

特朗普逐一列举了美国过往参与冲突的持续时长，包括伊拉克战争与越南战争，意在提醒美国民众，针对伊朗的军事行动才刚进入第二个月。但与他在整场战争期间的表态一致，特朗普并未给出清晰的退出战略，反而发表了模棱两可、前后矛盾的言论，一边释放外交和解的信号，一边又发出升级打击的威胁。

“We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” Mr. Trump said in the 19-minute address. “If there’s no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and properly simultaneously.”

“未来两到三周，我们将对他们发动极为猛烈的打击。”特朗普在这场19分钟的讲话中表示。“如果无法达成协议，我们将对他们的每一座发电厂同步实施精准强力的打击。”

Mr. Trump demanded that Iran negotiate to end the war, just a day after he suggested to reporters in the Oval Office that he did not need Iran to reach a deal to end the conflict.

特朗普要求伊朗通过谈判结束这场战争，而就在一天前，他还在白宫椭圆形办公室对记者表示，美国结束这场冲突无需与伊朗达成协议。

Mr. Trump framed the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit for oil worldwide, as an issue for other nations, even though earlier on Wednesday he said on social media he would not agree to any cease-fire deal unless it opened. Iran has choked off oil shipments through the strait, causing oil and natural gas prices to surge.

霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的核心要道，特朗普将恢复该海峡通航描述为其他国家的问题，尽管周三早些时候他还在社交媒体上表示，除非海峡恢复通航，否则他不会同意任何停火协议。伊朗已切断了该海峡的石油运输，导致全球石油与天然气价格大幅飙升。

“We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on,” he said of other nations.

谈及其他国家时，他表示：“我们会帮忙，但他们应该主动站出来，保护自己这么迫切依赖的石油运输通道。”

Mr. Trump also said that Iran’s “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed.” The U.S. and Israeli militaries have destroyed many of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers in airstrikes. But a large number are undamaged, and Iran continues to fire missiles in the region.

特朗普还称，伊朗“发射导弹与无人机的能力已遭到大幅削弱”。美以两军已通过空袭摧毁了伊朗的大量弹道导弹与发射装置，但仍有大量设施完好无损，伊朗也仍在该地区持续发射导弹。

The speech at times resembled the kind of sober address Americans might expect to see at the start of a war, or even before it, when a president makes a case for why the time for military action is necessary. Mr. Trump did not travel the country delivering extensive speeches laying out that justification before the war, and the speech Wednesday night was his first prime-time address from the White House since the attacks on Iran began on Feb. 28.

这场讲话有时让人联想到美国民众通常在战争爆发之初、甚至开战前会听到的那种严肃讲话——总统会在这类讲话中详细阐述采取军事行动的必要性。开战前，特朗普并未在全美各地巡回演讲、系统说明开战的正当性；而周三晚间的这场讲话是自2月28日对伊朗发动袭击以来，他首次在白宫发表黄金时段全国讲话。

Mr. Trump argued that Iran was on the cusp of building a weapon. That is disputed: Iran certainly could have produced bomb-grade nuclear fuel within days or weeks. But it would take months or more than a year to fashion that fuel into a nuclear weapon, American intelligence agencies concluded.

特朗普声称，伊朗已濒临造出核武器的边缘。这一说法存在争议：伊朗确实有可能在数天至数周内生产出武器级核燃料，但美国情报机构的结论是，要将这些燃料制造成核武器，还需要数月甚至一年以上的时间。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

我们还报道了以下内容：

• Diplomatic freeze: While Mr. Trump insisted that talks were continuing with Iran, multiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that Tehran is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations. The assessments say the Iranian government believes it is in a strong position in the war and does not have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands, officials said. Read more ›

· 外交僵局：尽管特朗普坚称与伊朗的谈判仍在进行，但美国多家情报机构近日评估认为，德黑兰方面目前无意开展实质性谈判。相关官员透露，评估报告显示，伊朗政府认为自身在战争中处于优势地位，无需屈从于美国的外交要求。阅读更多›

• War objectives: Mr. Trump laid out five goals for the war on Feb. 28, just hours after joining with Israel to carry out the first strikes. While those attacks have done significant damage to Iran’s military capabilities, it still fires missiles, has nuclear material and coordinates with militias in the region. Read more ›

· 战争目标：2月28日，在美国联合以色列发动首轮空袭仅数小时后，特朗普为这场战争定下了五大目标。尽管空袭已对伊朗的军事能力造成重创，但伊朗仍在持续发射导弹、保有核材料，并与该地区的民兵组织保持协同行动。阅读更多›

• Strait of Hormuz: Earlier Wednesday, an Iranian official emphasized that the United States would not regain access to the strait, saying in a social media post: “The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you.”

· 霍尔木兹海峡：周三早些时候，一名伊朗官员在社交媒体发文强调，美国将无法重新获得该海峡的通行权，称“霍尔木兹海峡一定会重新开放，但不是为你们开放。”

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,606 civilians had been killed, including 244 children, in Iran since the war began. Lebanon’s health ministry said that more than 1,318 Lebanese had been killed as of Wednesday, with more than 3,935 others wounded, since the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began. In Iran’s attacks across the Middle East, at least 50 people have been killed in Gulf nations. In Israel, at least 17 had been killed as of Friday. The American death toll stands at 13 service members, with hundreds of others wounded.

· 伤亡数据：人权活动人士新闻社表示，自战争爆发以来，伊朗境内已有至少1606名平民丧生，其中包括244名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部称，自以色列与黎巴嫩真主党爆发新一轮冲突以来，截至周三，黎巴嫩已有超1318人丧生，另有超3935人受伤。在伊朗于中东各地发动的袭击中，海湾国家已有至少50人丧生。截至上周五，以色列境内至少有17人丧生。美军方面的死亡人数为13名现役军人，另有数百人受伤。

One of the world’s largest experiments in driverless cars suffered an embarrassing setback as a number of robot taxis abruptly stopped moving in traffic on Tuesday evening in Wuhan, China, stranding their passengers and sometimes blocking other vehicles.

全球规模最大的无人驾驶汽车实验项目之一遭遇了令人尴尬的挫折。周二晚间，中国武汉多辆自动驾驶出租车在道路车流中突然停下，导致车内乘客被困，部分车辆还阻挡了其他车辆通行。

The police in Wuhan, a large metropolis in central China, announced on Wednesday that it had received a “succession” of reports that self-driving cars had stopped. The cars were part of the extensive Apollo Go program of self-driving cars run in Wuhan by Baidu, a large Chinese internet company.

中国中部特大城市武汉警方于周三通报，“陆续接到”报警，称自动驾驶汽车发生停驶。涉事车辆均来自中国大型互联网企业百度在武汉运营的大规模自动驾驶出行项目萝卜快跑。

The police said an unspecified “system failure” had occurred, and did not say how many cars had been affected. Baidu has hundreds of the cars in Wuhan, where they have become a common sight.

警方表示，事故原因为未明确具体细节的“系统故障”，未披露受影响的车辆数量。百度在武汉已投放数百辆该类自动驾驶车辆，成为当地的常见景象。

“Following established contingency plans, the public security traffic control and transportation departments quickly mobilized forces to the scene to dispose of the situation in coordination with Apollo Go company staff,” the police statement said.

警方在通报中称：“公安交管、交通运输部门按照预案迅速调集力量赶到现场，会同萝卜快跑公司工作人员开展处置。”

Baidu did not have an immediate comment.

百度暂未立即就此作出回应。

Waymo, an American provider of robot taxis, had a somewhat similar incident last December in San Francisco, when an hourslong power failure prompted Waymo cars there to pull over and stop. Robot taxis are typically programmed to stop if they encounter a completely unfamiliar situation.

美国自动驾驶出租车运营商Waymo去年12月在旧金山也曾发生过类似事件：当时一场持续数小时的停电事故导致当地的Waymo自动驾驶车辆纷纷靠边停车。按照常规程序设定，当自动驾驶出租车遇到完全无法识别的陌生场景时，会触发停车指令。

However, in the Wuhan incident, a video circulated on Chinese social media shows what appears to be a passenger stranded in an Apollo Go car that has stopped in the least fast lane, but not on the shoulder, of a broad expressway as trucks hurtle past. Two photos on Chinese social media show another Apollo Go car that has stopped in the middle of a highway and appears to have been hit on the back left corner by an orange sport utility vehicle that sits nearby with considerable damage to its right front corner.

而武汉此次事件中，中国社交媒体上流传的一段视频显示，一辆萝卜快跑车辆停在了宽阔快速路的最右侧最慢车道，而非应急车道，车内乘客被困，卡车从旁呼啸而过。社交媒体上的另外两张图片显示，另一辆萝卜快跑车辆停在高速公路中央，车左后角似乎被一辆橙色运动型多用途车撞击过，该车停在附近，右前角受损严重。

China’s regulators told automakers in early December to delay their plans for the sale of cars with a wide range of self-driving features. The authorities pulled back following a crash of a Xiaomi SU7 a year ago killed three women, all university students. The car disengaged from self-driving mode and asked the driver to take control of the vehicle one second before it hit a concrete construction barrier at 72 miles an hour.

去年12月初，中国监管部门曾要求车企推迟销售具备多种自动驾驶功能的汽车的计划。当局这一举措的背景是此前一年的一起小米SU7交通事故，造成三名女大学生身亡。涉事车辆在以约每小时116公里的速度撞上混凝土施工护栏的前一秒，自动驾驶模式解除，系统要求驾驶员接管车辆。

In July, China’s state-run television reported that tests on 36 car models from 20 brands had found that slightly fewer than half the cars could safely avoid a crash when they encountered trucks near a construction site at night. Only the two models by Tesla, the American company, had assisted-driving systems that were reliable in a wide range of safety situations, according to the report, which was widely viewed on the Chinese internet.

今年7月，中国中央电视台报道称，针对20个品牌的36款智驾车型开展的测试显示，当车辆在夜间靠近施工现场遇到卡车时，仅有略低于半数的车辆能够实现安全避让。这份在国内互联网上广泛传播的报道显示，只有美国特斯拉公司的两款车型配备的辅助驾驶系统在各种安全情境下都表现可靠。

Many auto analysts and executives believe that self-driving, which works best with electric cars, could be the next big advance for the industry. They envision hundreds of millions of drivers deciding in the years ahead to leave the driving to computers.

众多汽车行业分析师与企业高管认为，与电动汽车适配性最佳的自动驾驶技术或将成为汽车行业下一个重大技术突破。他们预计，未来数年，将有数亿车主选择将驾驶权交给计算机系统。

The rise of self-driving technologies threatens to leave behind those automakers in the West and northeast Asia that still emphasize sales of gasoline-powered cars. Gas engines respond much more slowly than electric motors to computerized driving instructions, making it difficult to design a gasoline-powered robot taxi.

自动驾驶技术的崛起可能会让欧美、东北亚地区那些仍主打燃油车销售的车企被时代抛下。燃油发动机对计算机驾驶指令的响应速度远慢于电动机，这也为燃油动力自动驾驶出租车的研发设计带来了极大难度。

China had a late start in driverless technology but has been quicker to approve widespread testing, while censoring reports of safety problems. In the United States, Waymo and Tesla are making major investments in self-driving. Waymo is also starting to roll out a fleet of robot taxis in London in a highly anticipated program.

中国在无人驾驶技术领域起步较晚，但在大规模落地测试的审批上节奏更快，同时对相关安全问题的报道实施审查。在美国，Waymo与特斯拉均在自动驾驶领域投入了巨额资金；备受市场关注的是，Waymo也已启动在伦敦投放自动驾驶出租车车队的项目。

Baidu announced last August that it would supply Lyft, an American ride-hailing service, with robot taxis to be operated this year in Germany and Britain, subject to regulatory approval. Momenta, a Chinese autonomous driving company, and Uber, the ride-hailing giant, announced last year that they planned a small experiment in Europe with self-driving cars. WeRide, another Chinese company, has begun driverless vehicle projects in Abu Dhabi and Singapore as well as several Chinese cities.

去年8月，百度宣布将为美国网约车服务商Lyft供应自动驾驶出租车，计划于今年在德国和英国投入运营，相关计划尚待监管部门审批。中国自动驾驶企业魔门塔与网约车巨头优步于去年宣布，计划在欧洲开展小规模自动驾驶汽车试点项目。另一家中国企业文远知行已在阿布扎比、新加坡以及中国多个城市启动了无人驾驶车辆项目。

The timing of the incident in Wuhan is particularly awkward for Baidu and for China, as it comes three weeks before thousands of executives and engineers from automakers around the world are set to converge on Beijing for the city’s auto show. The exhibition has become the world’s premier showcase of automotive innovation as the Chinese government has pushed foreign and domestic manufacturers alike to showcase their latest electric vehicles and other technologies.

武汉此次事故发生的时间点对百度乃至中国而言都尤为尴尬：三周后，全球车企的数千名高管与工程师将齐聚北京，参加北京国际车展。随着中国政府推动国内外车企集中展示最新的电动汽车及其他前沿技术，该车展已成为全球首屈一指的汽车创新展示平台。

Sandra Wong was at her father’s funeral, looking at a display of mementos, when she saw a newspaper clipping and learned something surprising: She was a direct descendant of Wong Kim Ark, a cook in San Francisco who was behind the landmark 1898 Supreme Court decision granting citizenship to virtually anyone born on American soil.

桑德拉·黄在父亲的葬礼上看着陈列的家族纪念品时，一张剪报让她得知了一个惊人的事实：她是黄金德的直系后代。黄金德曾是旧金山的一名华人厨师，正是他促成了1898年那项具有里程碑意义的最高法院裁决，该裁决赋予几乎所有在美国本土出生的人自动获得美国公民身份。

Before that day in 2011, she had never even heard of the name Wong Kim Ark. Nor had she known that birthright citizenship was a contentious issue, as it is now once again. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on the constitutionality of President Trump’s executive order last year rolling back birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants and temporary visitors, including international students.

在2011年的那一天之前，她从未听过黄金德这个名字，也从不知道出生公民权曾是争议话题——如今，这一议题再次掀起轩然大波。本周三，美国最高法院将开庭听证，就特朗普总统去年发布的一项行政命令的合宪性展开辩论。该命令取消了无证移民、临时访客（包括国际留学生）在美国所生子女的出生公民权。

“I always thought that if you were born in America, you were a citizen,” she said.

“我一直以为，只要生在美国，就是美国公民，”她说。

That Ms. Wong was not aware of her genealogical link is partly a measure of how deeply ingrained birthright citizenship has become in the American consciousness and how rarely Wong Kim Ark’s case is taught in schools.

桑德拉此前对自己的家族渊源一无所知，这一方面印证了出生地公民权早已深深植根于美国人的集体认知，另一方面也体现出，黄金德案在美国校园教育中极少被提及。

黄氏兄妹得知，黄金德于1870年出生在旧金山唐人街，那里距离他们长大的地方仅几公里之遥。

As Ms. Wong dug more into her family history, she found a rich and complex legacy — one that shows how birthright citizenship gave her family members a powerful legal foothold in the country, but not complete acceptance, which they struggled to attain.

随着桑德拉深入挖掘家族历史，一段厚重而复杂的家族遗产在她面前展开——这段历史表明，出生公民权为她的家族成员在美国立足提供了强有力的法律支撑，却没能为他们换来完全的接纳，而这份接纳是他们一直都在奋力争取的东西。

Discrimination and bias continued. Family members were separated across oceans. And, caught between the pressure to assimilate and the desire to maintain ties to their heritage, the descendants of Wong Kim Ark had to make difficult choices about which stories and traditions to pass down to their children — and which to withhold.

歧视与偏见依然存在，家族成员被迫远隔重洋、天各一方。在同化压力与维系自身传统纽带的愿望之间，黄金德的后代们不得不做出艰难的抉择：哪些故事与传统该传给下一代，哪些又该隐去。

“We tend to sell this idea of American citizenship as the pinnacle in an immigrant story that somehow marks your complete acceptance in society,” said Hardeep Dhillon, a history professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “But in reality, you can be a U.S. citizen and still have very differentiated rights.”

“我们总在宣扬一种观念，把美国公民身份塑造成移民故事的顶峰，仿佛它标志着你被这个社会彻底接纳了，”宾夕法尼亚大学历史学教授哈迪普·迪隆说。“但现实是，即便你是美国公民，所享有的权利依然存在显著差异。”

Growing up in San Francisco, Ms. Wong and her three brothers did not hear much about either side of their family.

桑德拉和三个兄弟在旧金山长大，父母双方的家族往事他们都知之甚少。

Their mother, Kimiko Takeuchi, who was Japanese American, had been interned along with her family in an incarceration camp in Utah during World War II, but did not speak often about that experience.

他们的母亲竹内喜美子（音）是日裔美国人，二战期间曾和家人一同被关押在犹他州的日裔拘留营，却极少向孩子们提起这段经历。

Their father, Wong Yook Jim, also rarely talked about the past. He worked as a ship steward and traveled for long stretches at a time. They knew that he was Chinese, but didn’t know much more.

他们的父亲黄沃沾也几乎从不谈及过往。他是一艘船上的乘务员，常常一出海就是数月之久。孩子们只知道他是华人，除此之外，对他的过去知之甚少。

Later, they learned that he had known about the Supreme Court case. But he never mentioned it to his children.

后来他们才知道，父亲其实知道最高法院的这起案件，却从未对孩子们提起过。

“You could tell there was a lot of pain,” said one of his sons, Norman Wong, now 76.

“你能感觉到，那段往事里藏着太多的痛苦，”他的儿子、如今76岁的诺曼·黄说。

The Wongs have since learned that their grandfather, Wong Kim Ark, was born in 1870 in San Francisco’s Chinatown, just a few miles from where they grew up. His parents had come as part of a wave of Chinese workers who flocked to the United States starting in the mid-1800s.

此后，黄家兄妹才慢慢了解到，他们的祖父黄金德1870年出生于旧金山唐人街，距离他们长大的地方只有几公里。19世纪中期开始，大批中国劳工涌入美国，他的父母是这股移民潮中的一员。

But these laborers soon encountered virulent racism and violence, and increasing restrictions in the form of federal laws like the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which barred most Chinese people from entering the country.

但这些劳工很快就遭遇了恶毒的种族歧视与暴力袭击，联邦法律也对他们施加了越来越严苛的限制，例如1882年出台的《排华法案》禁止大多数中国人入境。

Around that time, Mr. Wong went back to China with his family. But he soon tried to return to the United States, lured by the promise of higher wages.

大约就在那段时期，黄金德随家人回到了中国。但不久后，他被更高薪资的诱惑所吸引，试图重返美国。

After being denied re-entry in 1895, he took the extraordinary step of suing the United States government. He was only 24 years old, a cook in Chinatown who wore a braided queue.

1895年，他再次入境美国时遭到拒绝，随后做出了一个惊人的决定：起诉美国政府。那一年，他只有24岁，只是唐人街的一个厨师，还留着辫子。

Even after he won the case, Mr. Wong’s struggles continued. Like most Americans of Chinese descent at the time, he was repeatedly subject to interrogations by border officials and had to obtain letters from white witnesses attesting to his birth in America, said Beth Lew-Williams, a history professor at Princeton University.

普林斯顿大学历史学教授贝丝·廖-威廉姆斯介绍，即便赢下了这场官司，黄金德的困境也未结束。和当时绝大多数美籍华人一样，他屡屡遭到边境官员的盘问，还必须拿到白人证人的书面证词，来证明自己确实出生在美国。

Mr. Wong also tried to bring his sons from China, where they were born, to the United States, which had better economic opportunities.

黄金德还试图把自己在中国出生的儿子们带到有更多经济机遇的美国。

Because Mr. Wong was an American citizen, his children should also have been considered citizens. But officials denied entry to one son after days of interrogation. His three other sons were also subject to intense questioning, but were ultimately permitted entry.

按照法律规定，黄金德是美国公民，他的子女理应也被认定为美国公民。但他的一个儿子在经过连日盘问后，依然被拒绝入境。另外三个儿子也经历了严苛的审讯，最终才获准进入美国。

The youngest was Yook Jim, Sandra and Norman’s father, who was admitted in 1926 at the age of around 11. (The Wong family and some experts now believe that Yook Jim may not have been Wong Kim Ark’s son, but rather his grandson, based on the timing.)

最小的那个孩子就是桑德拉和诺曼的父亲黄沃沾。1926年，年仅11岁左右的他获准入境美国。（如今，黄家后人与部分专家根据时间线推断，黄沃沾可能并非黄金德的儿子，而是他的孙子。）

Even though Kim Ark eventually moved to China, Yook Jim stayed. Still a child, he settled with distant relatives in the Midwest, Norman said. Like many Chinese boys at the time, he would have been expected to work and send money back home to relatives.

诺曼说，尽管黄金德最终定居中国，黄沃沾却留在美国。诺曼·黄说，当时还是个孩子的他在美国中西部的远亲家安顿下来。和当时很多华人男孩一样，他注定要去打工，把钱寄回给家乡的亲人。

He later moved to San Francisco and married Ms. Takeuchi, with whom he had four children, including Norman and Sandra.

后来他搬到旧金山，与竹内喜美子结婚，两人育有四个孩子，其中就包括诺曼和桑德拉。

In 1945, he enlisted in the U.S. Navy under the name James Yuen Wong. Decades later, he would still speak proudly of his service, Ms. Wong recalled.

1945年，他以詹姆斯·元·黄(James Yuen Wong)这个名字加入美国海军。桑德拉·黄回忆，几十年后，他仍会自豪地谈起自己的服役经历。。

But he also held on to his Chinese roots. Ms. Wong recalled seeing the flag of the People’s Republic of China flying outside his home in Rio Linda, Calif. He later took a second wife in Hong Kong, and had another child.

但他也始终守着自己的华人根脉。桑德拉·黄记得，在加州里奥林达的家中，他曾在屋外悬挂中华人民共和国国旗。后来，他在香港娶了第二任妻子，又生了一个孩子。

Now, almost 130 years since Wong Kim Ark successfully won the right to be an American, some of his descendants have only faint ties to their ancestral homeland.

如今，距离黄金德成功获得美国公民身份已经过去了近130年，他的部分后代与祖籍国的联结早已变得十分淡薄。

Growing up in San Francisco, Norman and Sandra spoke English at home. They watched Disney movies and westerns on television.

诺曼和桑德拉在旧金山长大，在家只说英语，在电视上看迪士尼电影和西部片。

They didn’t celebrate any Chinese holidays and knew only vaguely about anti-Chinese exclusion laws.

他们不过任何中国传统节日，对当年的排华法案也只有模糊的认知。

They went to college. Norman attended the University of California, Berkeley, and went on to work in different jobs, including as a carpenter. Sandra went to San Francisco State University, and worked in marketing.

两人都读完了大学。诺曼就读于加州大学伯克利分校，毕业后从事过多种工作，其中包括木匠。桑德拉毕业于旧金山州立大学，从事市场营销相关工作。

It never occurred to them that they might be anything other than American. They know whom to thank for that.

他们从未怀疑过自己美国人的身份。他们也知道，这应该归功于谁。

“If he had not fought for that right,” Mr. Wong said. “I probably wouldn’t have existed.”

“如果当年他没有为这份权利而抗争，”诺曼·黄说。“我可能根本不会来到这个世界上。”

A towering orange-and-white NASA rocket blasted off from Florida on Wednesday evening, lifting four astronauts toward space and transporting spectators’ imaginations to a future in which Americans may again set foot on the moon.

周三傍晚，一枚高大的橙白相间NASA火箭从佛罗里达州发射升空，将四名宇航员送往太空，同时也把围观者的思绪带向美国人可能再次登月的未来。

As they did during the heyday of the Apollo program, which first put men on the lunar surface, spectators squeezed onto the beaches along Central Florida’s Space Coast. The crowds cheered when the powerful vehicle launched into the clear, twilight sky at 6:35 p.m. Eastern time. It traveled eastward, over the Atlantic Ocean, on a journey that is to go around the moon but not land there.

正如当年阿波罗计划鼎盛时期一样（当时人类首次登上月球表面），围观者挤满了佛罗里达中部太空海岸的海滩。当这枚强大的运载火箭于美国东部时间下午6点35分冲入澄澈的暮色天空时，人群爆发出欢呼。火箭向东越过大西洋，执行一次绕月飞行但不登陆的任务。

The flight aboard a spacecraft named Integrity is taking Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen on what is expected to be a round trip of more than 695,000 miles to clear a path for more exploration, and eventually a new lunar landing.

此行搭载的飞船名为“诚信号”，上面有里德·怀斯曼、维克多·格洛弗、克里斯蒂娜·科赫和杰里米·汉森四名宇航员，预计他们将完成超过112万公里的往返旅程，为未来的进一步探索铺平道路，并最终实现新的登月任务。

The mission, known as Artemis II, is the 21st century equivalent of Apollo 8, when NASA astronauts Frank Borman, James Lovell and William Anders captured the rapt attention of the world. When they launched in December 1968, it was the first time that astronauts rode on top of NASA’s mighty Saturn V rocket. For that mission, instead of just a short test flight around Earth, the space agency audaciously decided to send the crew all the way to the moon and back, the first time that another celestial body became a destination that humans could reach.

这次任务名为“阿尔忒弥斯2号”，相当于21世纪的“阿波罗8号”——当年的宇航员弗兰克·博尔曼、詹姆斯·洛弗尔和威廉·安德斯曾吸引全世界的目光。1968年12月的发射是宇航员首次搭乘美国航天局强大的“土星五号”火箭进入太空。那次任务中，航天局并未进行绕地短途测试，而是直接将宇航员送往月球并返回，这是人类首次将另一个天体作为可抵达的目的地。

Like Apollo 8, Artemis II aims to similarly check that the spacecraft can safely make the journey and keep its crew alive during the 10 days it is expected to take to go to the moon and return. Under those plans, the trip will conclude with a splash in the Pacific Ocean on April 10.

与“阿波罗8号”一样，“阿尔忒弥斯2号”旨在检验飞船能否安全完成旅程，在预计约10天的往返飞行中保障宇航员的生命安全。按照计划，飞船将于4月10日在太平洋溅落，结束任务。

Unlike the Apollo astronauts, who were all white men, this mission sets a number of firsts: Mr. Glover of NASA will be the first Black man to venture into deep space and Ms. Koch of NASA will be the first woman to do so, while Mr. Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency will be the first person on a moon mission who is not an American. Mr. Wiseman of NASA is the commander of Artemis II.

不同于当年的阿波罗宇航员全部为白人男性，这次任务创下多项“第一”：美国航天局的格洛弗将成为首位进入深空的黑人男性，科赫将成为首位进入深空的女性，而来自加拿大航天局的汉森则将成为首位参与登月任务的非美国人。美国航天局的怀斯曼担任“阿尔忒弥斯2号”任务的指令长。

In the 1960s, NASA was racing to beat the Soviet Union to the moon. This time, NASA does not want to fall behind the space ambitions of China, which is aiming to land its astronauts on the moon by the end of 2030. But the goal is not to win the sprint. It is to establish a continuing presence on the lunar surface, building an outpost over the next decade.

20世纪60年代，美国航天局与苏联赛跑，力争抢先登月。这一次，美国航天局不想落后于中国的太空雄心——中国计划在2030年底前将宇航员送上月球。但此次目标并不是赢得短跑，而是要在月球表面建立持续的存在，在未来十年里打造一个前哨基地。

Jared Isaacman, a billionaire entrepreneur who became NASA administrator in December, has announced major revisions to the Artemis program and rallied a work force that was battered by uncertainty and downsizing last year to focus on putting new footprints on the moon by the end of 2028.

亿万富翁企业家贾里德·艾萨克曼于去年12月出任美国航天局局长后，宣布对“阿尔忒弥斯计划”进行重大调整，并重整了在去年因不确定性和裁员而受挫的队伍，将重点放在2028年底前再次实现登月。

Here’s what else you need to know about Artemis II:

关于“阿尔忒弥斯2号”任务，还有几点值得了解：

• All Aboard: The rocket was filled with propellants and the astronauts on Wednesday afternoon were seen seated in the capsule well ahead of the launch. Forecasters predicted an 80 percent chance of favorable conditions during the two-hour launch window, which was set to start at 6:24 p.m. The window allowed wiggle room to resolve last-minute glitches or wait for a threatening cloud to pass by.

登舱就位：周三下午，火箭已加注推进剂，宇航员在发射前早早于舱内就位。气象预报显示，在长达两小时的发射窗口期内，有利天气条件的概率为80%。发射窗口从下午6点24分开启，为排除临阵故障或等待危险云层通过留出了缓冲余地。

• Technical Hiccups: Problems that have snarled scheduled launch attempts in the past, like hydrogen leaks and helium leaks, did not recur. But there were other issues. First, NASA engineers resolved a problem with the rocket’s flight termination system, which destroys the rocket in the event that the crew capsule is ejected during flight. Then, around 5:30 p.m. Eastern, NASA said it was working on a problem with a battery in that crew capsule ejection system. Learn how NASA keeps astronauts safe ›

技术故障：过去曾使发射计划受阻的问题，如氢气和氦气泄漏，这次没有出现。但仍出现了其他问题。首先，航天局的工程师解决了火箭飞行终止系统的一个故障——如果飞行中载人舱被弹出，该系统会摧毁火箭。随后，在美东时间下午5点30分左右，航天局表示正在处理载人舱弹射系统一块电池的问题。了解NASA如何保障宇航员安全 ›

• Firsts in Flight: The Artemis II crew included several firsts. Mr. Glover, the pilot, is to be the first Black man to travel around the moon. Ms. Koch is to be the first woman, and Mr. Hansen would be the first Canadian to make the journey. While Mr. Wiseman, Mr. Glover and Ms. Koch have spent time on the space station, this will be Mr. Hansen’s first time off the planet. Learn more about the crew ›

此次发射创下多项“第一”：“阿尔忒弥斯2号”的宇航员创下多项纪录。飞行员格洛弗将成为首位绕月飞行的黑人男性，科赫将成为首位绕月飞行的女性，汉森则将成为首位完成此旅程的加拿大人。怀斯曼、格洛弗和科赫都曾在空间站工作，而汉森将是首次离开地球。了解此次宇航员的更多信息 ›

• Rocket and Capsule: The astronauts will get to space aboard the Space Launch System. The rocket is the equivalent of the Saturn V that NASA used during the Apollo moon landings. The S.L.S. is 322 feet tall and weighs 5.75 million pounds when filled with propellants. Once in space, the crew will separate from the rocket and travel toward the moon in the Orion capsule. It has the interior volume of about two minivans. Read more ›

火箭与飞船：宇航员将搭乘“太空发射系统”（SLS）进入太空。这枚火箭相当于阿波罗登月时期使用的“土星五号”。SLS约98米高，加注推进剂后重量约为2607吨。进入太空后，宇航员将与火箭分离，乘坐“猎户座”飞船前往月球，其内部空间大致相当于两辆小型面包车。了解更多 ›

• 10 Days to the Moon and Back: The path of Artemis II is unlike any moon mission in the past and probably unlike any moon mission in the future. During the crew’s first few hours in space, they will test Orion’s systems while swinging out to about 43,000 miles above the Earth. That will set them up to begin their journey around the moon. The astronauts are expected to set a record for the farthest anyone has ever been from Earth, surpassing the distance reached by Apollo 13 in 1970 when the astronauts had to abort their mission and return back to Earth. Read more ›

10天往返月球：“阿尔忒弥斯2号”的飞行轨道不同于以往任何一次登月任务，也可能不同于未来的任务。在进入太空后的最初几个小时里，宇航员将在距地球约6.9万公里的高度测试“猎户座”的各项系统，为绕月之旅做准备。宇航员预计将创下人类距离地球最远的纪录，超过1970年“阿波罗13号”任务中达到的距离——当时宇航员被迫中止任务返回地球。了解更多 ›

China nabbed on Wednesday the leader of a Cambodian financial conglomerate that was at the heart of a global money-laundering network, in its latest show of force against cross-border organized crime in Southeast Asia.

周三，中国抓获了柬埔寨一家金融集团的负责人，该集团是一个全球洗钱网络的核心枢纽。这是中国对东南亚跨境有组织犯罪的最新一次震慑行动。

The man, Li Xiong, a Chinese national, is the former chairman of Huione Group and is suspected of committing fraud, concealing criminal proceeds, and operating casinos and other illegal businesses, Chinese state media reported. He was extradited from the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, with the help of the authorities there, the reports said.

据中国官方媒体报道，这名男子名叫李雄，系中国公民，曾任汇旺集团董事长，涉嫌实施诈骗、掩饰隐瞒犯罪所得以及开设赌场等多项犯罪。报道称，他是在柬埔寨有关部门的协助下从该国首都金边引渡回国的。

China has conducted sporadic crackdowns on scammers in Southeast Asia as well as those who facilitate such crime by providing money laundering and other services. The criminals target victims across the world, swindling them online from the relative safety of heavily guarded compounds. Many of the scammers and their victims are Chinese nationals. Some are trafficked into the job and held against their will.

中国此前曾不定期地打击东南亚的诈骗分子，也对那些通过提供洗钱等服务为这类犯罪提供便利的人采取过行动。这些犯罪分子从戒备森严的园区内，在相对安全的环境下，通过网络诈骗世界各地的受害者。许多诈骗者和受害者都是中国公民，其中一些人是被拐骗后被迫从事这一工作。

Last year, a New York Times investigation found that Huione’s group of companies operated a global money laundering network used by online scammers and other criminals.

去年，《纽约时报》的一篇调查报道发现，汇旺集团旗下的公司运营着一个被网络诈骗分子及其他犯罪分子使用的全球洗钱网络。

The Chinese authorities identified Mr. Li’s company, Huione, as a subsidiary of Prince Group, which was sanctioned by the United States last year. U.S. federal prosecutors accused it of bilking victims out of billions of dollars through investment scams. The chairman of Prince Group, Chen Zhi, was extradited to China from Cambodia in January.

中国有关部门认定，李雄的汇旺集团是太子集团的子公司，后者在去年受到美国制裁。美国联邦检察官指控其通过投资诈骗从受害者手中骗取了数十亿美元。太子集团董事长陈志已于今年1月从柬埔寨引渡至中国。

On Wednesday, Chinese state television showed Mr. Li disembarking from a plane handcuffed and hooded, escorted by several Chinese police officers who then removed the hood for the cameras.

周三，中国国家电视台播放的画面显示，在数名中国警察的押送下，李雄戴着手铐和头罩被带下飞机，随后警察为他摘下头罩以面对镜头。

The Ministry of Public Security said in a short statement that it had arrested “several key members of Chen Zhi’s criminal gang.”

中国公安部在一份简短声明中表示，“陈志犯罪集团已有多名骨干成员”陆续到案。

For a while, Chinese law enforcement officials’ collaboration with their Cambodian counterparts netted only lower-level criminals, leaving the scamming and money-laundering industries intact.

曾有一段时期，中国执法部门与柬埔寨同行的合作只抓获了一些外围成员，诈骗和洗钱产业得以完整保留。

The kingpins of the Huione and Prince Group, in particular, operated without censure and enjoyed the Cambodian government’s protection. Mr. Chen was an adviser to the prime minister and a relative of the Cambodian prime minister was a director of one of Mr. Li’s companies.

汇旺集团和太子集团的头目尤其肆无忌惮，并享有柬埔寨政府的保护。陈志曾担任柬埔寨首相的顾问，而柬埔寨首相的一名亲属则在李雄旗下的一家公司担任董事。

The latest extraditions indicate that Cambodia is giving in to pressure from Beijing.

最近的引渡行动表明，柬埔寨正在向北京的压力让步。

“We are willing to continue increasing the intensity of law enforcement cooperation with neighboring countries including Cambodia,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday.

中国外交部周三表示：“中方愿同包括柬埔寨在内的周边国家加大执法合作力度。”

As well as sanctioning Prince Group and its affiliates, subsidiaries and associates last year, the U.S. government seized nearly $15 billion in bitcoin from Mr. Chen’s group of companies, the largest seizure ever, according to the U.S. Justice Department. American prosecutors also filed an indictment against Mr. Chen, accusing him of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

美国政府去年除了制裁太子集团及其附属机构、子公司和关联方外，还从陈志的企业集团查获了近150亿美元的比特币，据美国司法部称，这是有史以来最大规模的查缴。美国检察官还对陈志提起了公诉，指控其涉嫌电信诈骗和合谋洗钱罪。

U.S. authorities did not explicitly establish a link between the Huione and Prince groups but the Trump administration separately blacklisted Huione as a money-laundering operation last year, shutting it out of the U.S. financial system.

美国当局并未明确证实汇旺集团与太子集团之间存在关联，但特朗普政府去年已单独将汇旺列为洗钱机构黑名单，将其排除在美国金融体系之外。

Until recently, Huione was a mighty constellation of companies that sucked in money from criminals, washed it clean and moved it across borders at stunning speed.

直到不久前，汇旺仍是一个实力雄厚的企业集群，吸纳来自犯罪活动的资金，将其“洗白”，并以惊人的速度跨境转移资金。

The company had legitimate business — its QR codes were ubiquitous across Cambodia and customers used them to settle their bills in supermarkets, restaurants and hotels. It also offered other banking and insurance services.

该公司拥有合法业务——其二维码在柬埔寨随处可见，顾客在超市、餐馆和酒店中常用其进行结账。它还提供其他的银行和保险服务。

Its less-legitimate underbelly, though, was the primary moneymaker. One affiliate of the company offered bespoke money-laundering services. Another ran an open online bazaar that served as matchmaker between criminals and money launderers.

然而，其见不得人的一面才是主要的盈利来源。它的一家关联公司提供定制化洗钱服务，另一家则运营一个开放的线上交易平台，充当犯罪分子与洗钱者之间的撮合中介。

Huione Group and its affiliates have laundered at least $4 billion for criminals, including hackers in North Korea and scammers in Southeast Asia, according to the U.S. Treasury. That figure could be higher — the online marketplace alone hosted nearly $27 billion in transactions until last spring, although some of those transactions may have been legitimate, according to the analytics firm Elliptic.

根据美国财政部的数据，汇旺集团及其关联公司已为犯罪分子洗钱至少40亿美元，其中包括朝鲜黑客和东南亚诈骗团伙。实际数字可能更高——据分析公司Elliptic称，仅该在线平台在去年春天之前就促成了近270亿美元的交易，尽管其中部分交易可能是合法的。

In December, the Cambodian National Bank said Huione had gone into liquidation after the government revoked its license to operate.

去年12月，柬埔寨国家银行表示，在政府吊销营业执照后，汇旺已进入清算程序。

President Trump said on Tuesday that the United States would wrap up its military campaign in Iran in two or three weeks, and the White House said he would address the nation about the war on Wednesday evening.

特朗普总统周二表示，美国将在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动，白宫同时宣布，总统将于周三晚间就这场战争向全国发表讲话。

“We will be leaving very soon,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

“我们很快就会撤军，”特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室对记者表示。

It was not immediately clear what message Mr. Trump intended to deliver in his national address, and he has left open the potential for escalating military action. But he and top aides have increasingly been suggesting that he sees justification for claiming to have achieved his main objectives and would like to extricate the United States from the conflict.

目前尚不清楚特朗普打算在全国讲话中传递何种信息，他也并未排除军事行动升级的可能性。但他与高层幕僚近期频频表示，他认为已有足够理由宣称已实现主要目标，并希望让美国从这场冲突中抽身。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Mr. Trump would be providing “an important update” on the war.

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，特朗普将就这场战争发布“重要进展通报”。

Mr. Trump told reporters that he had attained his goal of dealing with Iran’s nuclear program and that gasoline prices in the United States would come down as soon as the United States ended the conflict, which he said would be soon. Dealing with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off the global energy trade, was a problem for other countries to deal with, Mr. Trump said.

特朗普对记者称，他已经达成了应对伊朗核计划的目标，并称美国一旦结束这场冲突——他表示这很快就会发生——美国国内的汽油价格就会回落。他还表示，霍尔木兹海峡实质关停导致全球能源贸易受阻的问题，应该由其他国家来解决。

In a video published on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to make the case that Mr. Trump had succeeded in his primary goal of keeping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon. But Mr. Rubio’s argument was built on the assertion that degrading Iran’s conventional weapons was enough to keep Tehran from building a bomb.

在周二发布的一段视频中，国务卿鲁比奥竭力论证，特朗普已经达成了阻止伊朗制造核武器的首要目标。但鲁比奥的论断建立在削弱伊朗常规武器力量就足以阻止德黑兰制造核弹这一前提之上。

“That is the goal of this operation, to destroy their conventional missiles and their drone program so they can’t hide behind it,” Mr. Rubio said.

“本次行动的目标，就是摧毁他们的常规导弹和无人机项目，让他们无法再以此为掩护，”鲁比奥说。

霍尔木兹海峡的实质性封锁已导致全球能源贸易陷入瘫痪。

But even as the administration sent signals of de-escalation, Mr. Trump has left open the possibility of military escalation as U.S. forces continue to reach the region.

但即便政府释放了局势降级的信号，随着美军持续向该地区部署，特朗普仍未排除军事升级的可能性。

While Mr. Trump has touted that the military has hit more than 11,000 targets, Iran still has near-bomb-grade nuclear material at the Isfahan site. The president is weighing whether to approve a risky operation to seize or destroy the material.

尽管特朗普大肆宣扬美军已打击了超过1.1万个目标，但伊朗在伊斯法罕核设施内仍储存着接近武器级的核材料。目前总统正在权衡，是否批准一项高风险行动，以夺取或销毁这批核材料。

Mr. Trump has also floated the idea of invading or attacking Kharg Island, the heart of Iran’s oil export capacity in the Persian Gulf, or seizing other islands in the gulf to help restore the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has used as a choke point for Middle East oil shipments.

特朗普还提出其他构想——入侵或袭击伊朗在波斯湾的石油出口核心哈尔克岛，或是夺取波斯湾内的其他岛屿，以此推动恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运通行。伊朗一直将这条海峡作为阻断中东石油运输的咽喉要道。

At the same time, Mr. Trump continues to suggest that a negotiated settlement with Tehran is possible, though not necessary for the United States to step back from the war that it has been waging alongside Israel for the last month.

与此同时，特朗普仍表示，有可能与德黑兰通过谈判达成和解，不过对于美国而言，想要从这场与以色列联合发动、已持续一个月的战争中抽身，谈判并不是必需的。

But Mr. Trump has yet to fully achieve many of the goals he set out when he entered the conflict, including ousting the theocratic government in Iran and ensuring that it could never achieve a nuclear weapon. Nor has he resolved problems created by the war, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the increased regional instability caused by Iran’s missile attacks on neighboring countries.

但特朗普当初宣布介入冲突时定下的诸多目标，至今仍未完全实现，包括推翻伊朗的神权政府、确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器。他也未能解决这场战争引发的一系列问题，包括霍尔木兹海峡实质关停，以及伊朗对邻国发动导弹袭击所导致的地区动荡加剧。

Mr. Rubio on Monday stated four goals for the war in interviews with ABC News and Al Jazeera. An official State Department account posted on social media a video clip from one of the interviews and a bullet-point list of the goals, saying: “You should write them down.”

周一，鲁比奥在接受ABC新闻与半岛电视台采访时列出了这场战争的四大目标。美国国务院官方账号在社交媒体上发布了其中一段采访的视频片段以及目标要点清单，并配文：“建议你们记下来。”

The goals were the destruction of Iran’s air force, the destruction of its navy, the “severe diminishing” of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories.

这四大目标分别是：摧毁伊朗空军、摧毁伊朗海军、“大幅削弱”伊朗的导弹发射能力，以及摧毁伊朗的工厂。

Absent from the list are some of the goals that Mr. Trump has stated recently: “regime change,” seizing Iran’s oil, forcing the Iranian military to allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz and completely eradicating Iran’s nuclear program, which includes stockpiles of highly enriched uranium buried in underground sites that were struck by American bombs last summer.

这份清单并未纳入特朗普近期多次提及的部分目标：“政权更迭”、夺取伊朗石油、迫使伊朗军方放行霍尔木兹海峡的通航船只，以及彻底根除伊朗的核计划——其中包括去年夏天遭美军炸弹袭击的地下设施中储存的高浓缩铀。

Mr. Rubio’s list of four goals — all conventional and relatively modest — was similar to a list of three objectives he put out on March 9, in the second week of the war, with two notable differences: the addition of the destruction of Iran’s air force, and also a walking back of an earlier stated goal to “destroy their ability to launch missiles.” The new phrase, “severe diminishing” of that capability, indicates that U.S. officials no longer think it is feasible to completely destroy Iran’s missile program.

鲁比奥列出的这四大目标均为常规军事目标，尺度也相对保守，与他在3月9日（战争第二周）提出的三大目标很相近，但有两处显著差异：新增了“摧毁伊朗空军”的目标，同时收回了此前提出的“摧毁伊朗导弹发射能力”的说法。新的表述“大幅削弱”这一能力，意味着美国官方已不再认为彻底摧毁伊朗导弹项目具备可行性。

In laying out the four goals, Mr. Rubio appeared to be giving Mr. Trump an off-ramp that the president could decide to take. Mr. Trump could say the United States had achieved the goals and end U.S. combat operations, even if Israel, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab nations in the region are pressing him to continue the conflict until the violence forces a deeper structural change to Iran’s government and leadership.

鲁比奥列出这四大目标似乎是在为特朗普提供一条可供选择的退路。特朗普完全可以宣称美国已达成既定目标，就此结束美军的作战行动——尽管以色列、沙特阿拉伯及该地区其他部分阿拉伯国家仍在向他施压，要求他将冲突持续下去，直到通过武力迫使伊朗政府与领导层发生更深层次的结构性变革。

“We will achieve those objectives,” Mr. Rubio said on Al Jazeera about the four goals. “We are well on our way or ahead of schedule. We will achieve them in weeks, not months.”

“我们一定会实现这些目标，”鲁比奥在半岛电视台的采访中谈及这四大目标时表示。“目前相关行动进展顺利，部分甚至超前于计划。我们将在几周内完成目标，而不是几个月。”

But White House officials, including Ms. Leavitt, the press secretary, have reiterated the president’s more expansive goals of dismantling Iran’s missile and drone production infrastructure, weakening their proxies and preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.

但包括新闻秘书莱维特在内的白宫官员仍在重申总统范围更广的目标：摧毁伊朗的导弹与无人机生产基础设施、削弱伊朗的代理人势力，以及阻止伊朗获得核武器。

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said the United States had already accomplished “regime change,” even though a theocratic leadership that is authoritarian and anti-American remains in place.

周二，特朗普宣称美国已经实现了在伊朗的“政权更迭”，尽管伊朗那个反美的威权神权领导层依然牢牢掌握权力。

“We’ve knocked out one regime, then we knocked out the second regime,” Mr. Trump said. “Now we have a group of people that are very different, they are much more reasonable, I think, much less radicalized. We have had regime change.”

“我们先是打败了第一个政权，然后又打败了第二个，”特朗普说。“现在我们面对的，是一群完全不同的人，我认为他们理性得多，也远远没那么激进。我们已经实现了政权更迭。”

If Mr. Trump does follow through on his threat to end the military campaign without reopening the Strait, he will leave the global economy in disarray. Oil prices have skyrocketed around the world, including in the United States, and European officials are urging countries to cut back on energy use.

如果特朗普真的兑现他的威胁，在霍尔木兹海峡通航未恢复的情况下结束军事行动，全球经济将陷入持续的混乱。目前全球各地油价已大幅飙升，包括美国在内，欧洲官员正呼吁各国削减能源使用。

But Mr. Trump, who said on Tuesday that “all I have to do is leave Iran” for oil prices to drop, has put the onus on other countries, including NATO allies, to reopen the strait.

但特朗普在周二表示，“只要我从伊朗撤军”，油价就会回落，同时他将恢复海峡通航的责任推给了包括北约盟友在内的其他国家。

“Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” he wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday morning. “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

“拿出你们迟来的勇气，去海峡，直接拿下它！”他周二早上在Truth Social平台上写道。“你们必须学会为自己而战，美国不会再去帮你们了，就像你们当初也没帮过我们一样。伊朗基本上已被摧毁，最难的部分已经做完了。自己去拿你们的石油吧！”

I was a child during the Vietnam War, and it was impossible to miss antiwar protests. I remember a common sentiment best expressed by Senator George McGovern: “I’m tired of old men dreaming up wars for young men to fight.”

我在越战期间还是个孩子，那时几乎不可能不注意到反战抗议。我记得当时有一种普遍情绪，充分体现在了参议员乔治·麦戈文的一句话中：“我厌倦了老年人构想战争，却让年轻人去打。”

And here we go again.

而现在，这似乎又在重演。

President Trump has reached a fork in his Iran war. One path would be diplomatic, and Trump has tried to reassure financial markets that we’re headed that way. Iran is “‘begging’ us to make a deal,” he claimed.

特朗普总统在伊朗战争问题上走到了一个岔路口。一条路是外交途径，特朗普也试图让金融市场放心，我们正朝着那个方向前进。他声称，伊朗正在“‘恳求’我们达成协议”。

The problem is that Iran is not in fact begging for a deal. On the contrary, it has found fabulous leverage by closing the Strait of Hormuz to most traffic other than its own. Iranians must be thinking that they largely gave up their nuclear program in the accord with President Barack Obama, and they got a measly $400 million for that (later, there was more). This month, all Iran had to do was block the Strait of Hormuz for a few weeks, and the Trump administration lifted some oil sanctions that could amount to upward of $14 billion. No wonder Iran seems to feel it has the upper hand.

问题在于，伊朗实际上并没有在恳求达成协议。恰恰相反，它通过将霍尔木兹海峡关闭、只允许本国船只通行，获得了巨大的筹码。伊朗人想必在想，他们在与奥巴马总统达成的协议中基本上放弃了核计划，却只得到了区区4亿美元（后来又获得了一些）。而在这个月，伊朗只需要将霍尔木兹海峡封锁几周，特朗普政府就解除了部分石油制裁，其价值可能高达140亿美元。难怪伊朗似乎觉得自己占了上风。

So while Trump may want an offramp, his conundrum is that any deal reached now would be substantially worse than Iran’s reported offer last month (a three-year pause in all uranium enrichment and strict limits thereafter).

因此，尽管特朗普可能希望找到一个台阶下，但他面临的难题在于，现在达成的任何协议都会远逊于伊朗上个月据称提出的条件（即暂停所有铀浓缩活动三年，并在此后施加严格限制）。

I’m in favor of the diplomatic path, but let’s be honest: Any deal would be a pretty bad one and would strengthen a brutal regime that oppresses its people and menaces the region.

我支持外交途径，但实话实说：任何协议都可能相当糟糕，并且会巩固一个压迫本国人民、威胁整个地区安全的残暴政权。

Because the diplomatic option is so unappealing, Trump seems poised to seize an even worse one: dispatching ground troops to invade Iran. He is sending thousands of Marines and paratroopers to the region, and The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering whether to send another 10,000 ground troops.

由于外交选项如此缺乏吸引力，特朗普似乎准备选择一条更糟糕的道路：派遣地面部队入侵伊朗。他正在向该地区增派数千名海军陆战队员和伞兵，而《华尔街日报》报道称，五角大楼正在考虑是否再增派1万名地面部队。

“This is a dangerous point,” Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran watcher at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “Maybe Trump has no choice but to go down this path, because to go to the table right now would really admit defeat. But this is the quandary of his own making.”

“这是一个危险的时刻，”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学资深伊朗问题专家瓦利·纳斯尔告诉我。“也许特朗普别无选择，只能走这条路，因为现在走到谈判桌前就等于承认失败。但这是他自己造成的困境。”

The most discussed target for seizure is Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export base. Yes, the Marines probably could conquer Kharg, even though the Iranians have reportedly laid traps and improved defenses. As Senator Lindsey Graham, the Trump whisperer, said, “We did Iwo Jima; we can do this.” What Graham didn’t mention was that 26,000 Americans were killed or wounded capturing the Japanese island of Iwo Jima near the end of World War II.

最受关注的打击目标是哈尔克岛——伊朗的主要石油出口基地。是的，海军陆战队或许能拿下哈尔克岛，尽管据报道伊朗人已经布设了陷阱并加强了防御。正如特朗普的心腹、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆所说：“我们打下过硫磺岛，我们也能拿下这里。”格雷厄姆没有提到的是，在二战末期攻占日本硫磺岛时，有2.6万名美军伤亡。

The challenge isn’t just seizing Kharg; the greater nightmare would be protecting troops there, day after day, week after week, from drones and other attacks.

问题不仅在于占领哈尔克岛，更大的噩梦在于此后如何一天天、一周周地保护驻扎在那里的部队免受无人机和其他攻击。

The United States has been unable to fully protect its own hardened military bases in the region at much greater distances from Iran, forcing soldiers to evacuate to hotels. “Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable,” my Times colleagues Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt reported. So if we can’t protect our bases, how will we protect Marines dropped off on an Iranian island?

美国在该地区拥有多处坚固的军事基地，距离伊朗要远得多，但即便如此，美军也未能完全保护这些基地，士兵们被迫撤离到酒店。“美军在该地区使用的13个军事基地中，有许多几乎无法居住，”我在《纽约时报》的同事海伦·库珀和埃里克·施密特报道称。那么，如果我们连自己的基地都保护不了，又该如何保护被投放到一座伊朗岛屿上的海军陆战队员呢？

Why seize Kharg anyway? The theory advanced by hawks is that without oil revenues Iran would be forced to surrender. “Control that island, let this regime die on a vine,” urged Graham.

那为什么还要夺取哈尔克岛？鹰派的理论是，如果失去石油收入，伊朗将被迫投降。“控制那个岛，让这个政权自生自灭，”格雷厄姆敦促道。

Unfortunately, that theory is probably wrong.

不幸的是，这种理论很可能是错误的。

“Even if we take Kharg, Iran won’t capitulate,” Dennis Citrinowicz, formerly the top Iran watcher in Israel Defense Intelligence, told me. “And everything’s going to escalate, and the prices of oil and whatever will be dramatically higher.”

“即使我们拿下哈尔克岛，伊朗也不会投降，”曾任以色列国防军情报局首席伊朗问题分析师丹尼斯·西特里诺维奇告诉我。“一切都会不断升级，油价等等都将大幅上涨。”

If Trump wanted to seize territory, the better choice might be several small islands — Abu Musa and the Tunb islands — that are also claimed by the United Arab Emirates. A joint American and Emirati force could seize them and Emiratis could occupy them.

如果特朗普真的想夺取领土，更好的选择或许是几个较小的岛屿——阿布穆萨岛和大小通布岛——阿联酋也对这些岛屿提出了主权主张。美国与阿联酋的联合部队可以夺取这些岛屿，然后由阿联酋方面驻守。

But even that would be a huge escalation. The truth is that any seizure of Iranian-controlled land would most likely lead Iran to retaliate by attacking energy infrastructure around the region — and, more terrifying, desalination plants that provide the water on which some Gulf cities depend. With refineries out of commission, we could face oil and gas shortages for years to come. The Houthis in Yemen might also join the fray by blocking ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is the Red Sea choke point equivalent to Hormuz on the Persian Gulf.

但即便如此，这也将是一次巨大的升级。现实是，任何夺取伊控领土的行动都极有可能招致伊朗的报复，比如攻击该地区的能源基础设施——更可怕的是，袭击为一些海湾城市提供水源的海水淡化厂。一旦炼油设施瘫痪，我们可能会在未来数年面临石油和天然气短缺。也门的胡塞武装也可能加入冲突，通过封锁曼德海峡来阻断航运。曼德海峡是红海的咽喉要道，相当于波斯湾的霍尔木兹海峡。

“I don’t see this ending very soon,” Nasr warned. “I think the risk of this becoming uglier, with a lot of costs to the United States, is quite high.”

“我不认为这会在短期内结束，”纳斯尔警告说。“我认为局势变得更加糟糕、让美国付出巨大代价的风险相当高。”

Trump’s aim if he dispatches ground troops is probably “to escalate to de-escalate,” hoping that he can gain leverage over Iran and get a better bargain. That’s possible. But my guess is the opposite: Collapsing financial markets would give Iran even more leverage than it has now.

如果特朗普派遣地面部队，他的目的很可能是“以升级促降级”，希望借此获得对伊朗的筹码，从而谈成一笔更有利的协议。这种可能性是存在的。但我更倾向于相反的判断：金融市场的崩溃反而会让伊朗获得比现在更大的筹码。

Iran’s regime may also have more strategic patience than we do. Remember that after Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, Iran recovered its territory by 1982 but was so enraged that it refused a cease-fire and spent another six years fighting in the hope of overthrowing the Iraqi regime. Do we have the same staying power?

伊朗政权可能也比我们更有战略耐心。别忘了，1980年伊拉克入侵伊朗后，伊朗在1982年收复了失地，但因愤怒而拒绝停火，又打了六年仗，希望能推翻伊拉克政权。我们有同样的持久力吗？

For all the uncertainties, one truth I feel deeply from having seen war up close: Old men should not fix their messes by dispatching young people to die in unnecessary wars.

尽管存在诸多不确定性，但有一个我在近距离目睹战争后深信不疑的道理：老一辈不应通过让年轻人为不必要的战争送命来收拾他们自己制造的烂摊子。

Jared Isaacman was in his office in mid-January, barely a month into his job as NASA administrator, when his cellphone rang.

|1月中旬，贾里德·艾萨克曼就任NASA局长才一个月，正在办公室里，他的手机突然响了。

“Jared, I want to check in with you,” said President Donald Trump, as Isaacman recounted the conversation. “Are we doing something in the 2028 window for Mars? What do you think about the nuclear rocket?”

“贾里德，我想跟你聊聊，”唐纳德·特朗普总统在电话里说，艾萨克曼回忆这段对话。“我们在2028年这个时间窗口有没有针对火星的相关计划？你对核动力火箭怎么看？”

Isaacman’s agency is on the verge of one of the most momentous space landmarks of the modern era: the launch of Artemis II, a mission that is set to propel astronauts farther from the planet than any human beings have traveled in history as they loop around the moon. And yet the president was instead focused on what would come next.

艾萨克曼领导的NASA正处在现代航天史上最具里程碑意义的时刻之一：阿耳忒弥斯二号发射任务即将实施。按照计划，执行此次任务的宇航员将绕月飞行，距离地球之远将超越人类历史上任何一次太空航行。总统的注意力却已经投向了这项任务之后的未来。

Trump, who turns 80 this year, grew up in the days of Apollo, when spacefarers voyaged to another world and fired imaginations back on the one they left behind. Trump, however, wants to top the achievements of Apollo 11 and its brethren. A moon base! A nuclear rocket! A trip to Mars! And whatever it will be, it has to be huge, and it has to get started before he is due to leave office in January 2029.

今年将迎来80岁生日的特朗普成长于阿波罗计划的年代。当时宇航员奔赴另一个星球，令地球上的人们浮想联翩。而如今，特朗普想要超越阿波罗11号及其他阿波罗系列任务创下的成就。月球基地！核动力火箭！火星之旅！无论最终要实现什么，规模必须足够宏大，而且必须在他2029年1月卸任前正式启动。

The man who slaps his names on buildings and dreams of adding his face to Mount Rushmore hopes to make history by pushing space exploration to new heights, literally and figuratively. No president since NASA’s glory days under John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson has pressed the space agency as hard as Trump.

这个热衷于把自己的名字刻在各大建筑上、梦想着把自己的头像加到拉什莫尔山总统群雕里的男人希望将太空探索推向新的高度——无论是字面意义还是象征意义，以此来创造历史。自肯尼迪与约翰逊执政时期的NASA黄金岁月以来，没有任何一任美国总统像特朗普这样对航天局施加如此之大的推动力度。

The upcoming launch of Artemis II will be the first step in the journey. Four astronauts are scheduled to fly to the moon as soon as Wednesday.

即将实施的阿耳忒弥斯二号发射将是这段征程的第一步。四名宇航员计划最早于本周三启程，执行绕月飞行任务。

1月，NASA局长贾里德·艾萨克曼（左二）与阿耳忒弥斯二号任务机组人员在肯尼迪航天中心合影。

Trump wants to be on hand when they get off the ground, if all goes well, to celebrate a milestone achievement for America and, he hopes, for his own legacy.

如果一切顺利，特朗普希望亲临发射现场，见证火箭升空。他要为美国的这一里程碑式成就庆贺，也希望这能成为自己政治遗产中的一笔。

In an interview, Isaacman said the president’s goals were driven by a constellation of national security, commercial, resource and technological interests, as well as his preternatural instinct for grand undertakings.

在一次采访中，艾萨克曼表示，总统的这些目标背后是国家安全、商业、资源与技术利益的多重考量，同时也源于他对宏大事业异乎寻常的敏锐直觉。

“The president knows the importance of taking on big, bold endeavors and he does it across all of the important technological domains,” Isaacman said. “So when he talks to me about returning to the moon, he doesn’t talk about a repeat of Apollo. He says: Do we build a moon base? What does the lunar economy look like? We’re not just going to plant the flag.”

“总统深知开展宏大、大胆事业的重要性，而且他在所有关键的技术领域都在践行这一点，”艾萨克曼说。“所以当他和我谈及重返月球时，他说的不是重复阿波罗计划。他会问：我们要不要建月球基地？月球经济会是什么样子？我们要做的不仅仅是插上一面国旗。”

In fact, Isaacman said, Trump has made clear that humans need to stay. “What I have heard him say many times is, ‘Make sure when we go back that we are not going for the brief Apollo program,’” Isaacman said. “He specifically said, ‘We better be doing more than getting rocks this time.’”

艾萨克曼还说，事实上，特朗普已经明确表态，人类必须在月球驻留。“我多次听他说过：‘一定要确保，我们这次回去，不是开展像阿波罗计划那样短暂的任务，’”艾萨克曼回忆道。“他还特别强调：‘这次我们最好不要只带回几块石头。’”

Liz Huston, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that the president is “building on the transformational achievements” of his first term. “With President Trump’s America-first policies, the United States will lead humanity into space and enter a new era of groundbreaking achievements in space technology and exploration.”

白宫发言人莉兹·休斯顿在声明中表示，总统正在其首个任期的“变革性成就基础上继续前行”。“凭借特朗普总统的美国优先政策，美国将带领人类走向太空，开启航天技术与太空探索领域突破性成就的新时代。”

Trump was not exactly a space aficionado before coming to office. He is not known for waxing romantically about watching Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin land on the moon in 1969 when he was 23 years old.

入主白宫前，特朗普算不上航天爱好者。1969年尼尔·阿姆斯特朗与巴兹·奥尔德林实现月球登陆时，他23岁，但从未有人听说过他深情追忆当年观看登月直播的经历。

NASA拟建月球基地的艺术概念图。

When a 10-year-old boy asked Trump about space in 2015 during a campaign stop in New Hampshire, the candidate seemed indifferent. “Right now, we have bigger problems — you understand that?” he said. “We’ve got to fix our potholes.”

2015年，特朗普在新罕布什尔州举行竞选活动时，一个10岁的男孩向他询问太空相关的问题，当时这位总统候选人显得漠不关心。“眼下，我们有更棘手的问题——你明白吗？”他说。“我们得先把路上的坑洼补好。”

But along the way, he became persuaded that fixing potholes was not exactly the same as reaching for the stars. Just weeks before the 2016 election, his campaign’s surrogates pledged “a new vision” for America’s space program.

但随着时间推移，他逐渐意识到，修补路面坑洼与奔赴星辰大海终究不是一回事。2016年大选前几周，他的竞选团队代言人承诺，要为美国的航天计划勾勒“全新愿景”。

“During the campaign, he saw the linkages between space and the larger ‘Make America Great’ grand vision,” said Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, who served as executive secretary of the National Space Council, which Trump reconstituted in his first term.

“竞选期间，他看清了太空事业与‘让美国再次伟大’这一更宏大愿景之间的关联，”乔治·华盛顿大学太空政策研究所所长斯科特·佩斯说。佩斯曾担任美国国家太空委员会执行秘书，该委员会正是特朗普在首个任期内重新组建的。

Kennedy set the goal of reaching the moon not out of love of exploration, but to compete with the Soviets. Once Americans won the space race, the public and presidents largely lost interest.

肯尼迪当年定下登月目标并非出于对太空探索的热爱，而是为了与苏联展开竞争。一旦美国赢得了这场太空竞赛，美国公众与历任总统就基本失去了对航天事业的兴趣。

Richard Nixon scrapped the final three Apollo moonshots and shifted resources into building a workmanlike space shuttle. Ronald Reagan kicked off the development of a permanent crewed space station, which Bill Clinton transformed into a joint venture with the Russians. George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush each set sights on returning to the moon and then going to Mars, but neither got far. Barack Obama wanted to land astronauts on an asteroid, a vision that went nowhere.

尼克松取消了阿波罗计划的最后三次登月任务，将资源转向打造一款实用性更强的航天飞机。里根启动了永久性载人空间站的研发，比尔·克林顿则将其转变为美俄合作项目。老布什与小布什都曾定下先重返月球、再登陆火星的目标，却都未能取得实质性进展。奥巴马曾计划让宇航员登陆小行星，这一愿景最终也不了了之。

2019年7月，特朗普总统与宇航员迈克尔·柯林斯（特朗普右侧）和巴兹·奥尔德林（特朗普左侧）合影。

Trump, however, came to see space as a place to make a mark. He invited Aldrin and Michael Collins, Aldrin’s Apollo 11 crewmate, to the White House for the 50th anniversary of their historic flight, and put Aldrin in the gallery for his State of the Union address in 2019. He flew to Florida to personally witness the SpaceX launch in 2020 as Elon Musk’s company helped restore NASA’s ability to send astronauts to the International Space Station from its own soil.

然而，特朗普却将太空视为一个可以让他留下印记的领域。阿波罗11号历史性登月50周年之际，他邀请奥尔德林以及同乘阿波罗11号的成员迈克尔·柯林斯到访白宫；2019年的国情咨文演讲中，他还特意邀请奥尔德林出席国会旁听席。2020年，当埃隆·马斯克的公司帮助美国宇航局恢复了从本土向国际空间站发射宇航员的能力时，他专程飞往佛罗里达，亲临现场见证了SpaceX公司的发射任务。

Whether the president will remain attentive to Artemis II is an open question. As the launch date got pushed off, Trump did nothing to call attention to the mission. Even though its four astronauts were in the gallery for his State of the Union address in February, Trump did not acknowledge them or mention their journey.

但总统是否会持续关注阿耳忒弥斯二号任务目前还是未知数。随着发射日期一再推迟，特朗普并未采取任何行动来引起人们对该任务的关注。尽管执行此次任务的四名宇航员出席了他2月的国情咨文演讲，坐在国会旁听席上，特朗普却既没有向他们致意，也没有提及这次太空任务。

NASA faces uncertainties about its moon program after Artemis II. Keeping the world captivated could depend heavily on Trump’s ongoing commitment.

阿耳忒弥斯二号任务之后，NASA的月球计划仍面临诸多不确定性。而能否让全世界持续关注这项事业很大程度上取决于特朗普是否会持续支持该计划。

“As something as technically challenging as spaceflight is, you have to have the White House and the president acting as the spokesman for it,” said Harrison H. Schmitt, one of the last two men to step foot on the moon as part of the Apollo 17 mission in 1972 and one of only four moon walkers still alive today. “There’s just no question about that.”

“航天飞行这种技术难度极高的事业，必须要有白宫和总统亲自为其发声，”哈里森·施密特说。“这一点是毋庸置疑的。”1972年，作为阿波罗17号任务的宇航员，施密特成为最后两位踏上月球表面的人类之一，也是如今仍在世的仅有的四位登月宇航员之一。

When a fire broke out in March in a shopping center a few minutes’ walk from the Kremlin, one of Russia’s scrappy Telegram news channels sent a reporter to the scene.

3月，克里姆林宫步行几分钟外的一家购物中心发生火灾时，俄罗斯一家以敢拼著称的Telegram新闻频道派了一名记者赶赴现场。

There was one problem. Mobile data was completely down in the center of Moscow, and Telegram, the most popular app in the country, was being throttled.

但出现了一个问题。莫斯科市中心的移动数据完全中断，而该国最流行的应用程序Telegram也被限流。

“It was like 1997,” said Sergei Titov, the editor of the channel, Ostorozhno Novosti, who recounted how the reporter, unable to send photos or videos, called the outlet’s landline to narrate — “three fire engines, two ambulances, many people running.”

“就像回到了1997年，”这个名叫“Ostorozhno Novosti”的新闻频道主编谢尔盖·季托夫说。他回忆道，由于无法发回照片或视频，派到前方的记者只能打编辑部的座机电话进行口述——“三辆消防车，两辆救护车，很多人在奔跑。”

The dayslong outage in the most important part of Moscow crystallized fears that President Vladimir Putin would go further than Russians imagined to cut them off from the world and interrupt their lives as he brings the nation’s internet fully under Kremlin control.

这起持续数天、发生在莫斯科最重要区域的断网事件加剧了人们的担忧：总统普京可能会采取比俄罗斯人想象的更进一步的措施，将他们与外界隔绝，并在把该国的互联网完全置于克里姆林宫控制之下的过程中，打乱他们的日常生活。

Russians in recent weeks have faced two disruptions at once. Authorities, armed with new technical capabilities and wartime pretexts, have been pulling the plug on the mobile internet in certain places. They have also been blocking ever more foreign apps used by millions of Russians.

最近几周，俄罗斯人面临两重中断。当局凭借新的技术能力和战时借口在特定区域关闭移动互联网。同时，他们也在屏蔽越来越多被数百万俄罗斯人使用的外国应用程序。

1月，遭围困的乌克兰康斯坦丁尼夫卡市，一名乌克兰步兵。俄罗斯以战争为借口在国内打压互联网自由。

The government has cited security reasons for the internet outages, calling them precautions against Ukrainian drone attacks that use Russian mobile networks for targeting. But experts say the government is also conducting the sort of targeted blackouts that it would impose in the event of unrest, like the mass demonstrations that swept Iran this year.

政府称断网是出于安全考量，称这是为防范利用俄罗斯移动网络进行定位的乌克兰无人机袭击所采取的预防措施。但专家指出，政府也在实施定向断网措施，这种手段通常发生在社会动荡时期，比如今年席卷伊朗的大规模示威期间。

Even bolder, in the eyes of many Russians, is Putin’s assault on Telegram. Having blocked Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and YouTube, the Russian leader is now moving to hobble an app that more than 100 million Russians use every month to communicate and read news, including from exiled outlets banned in Russia.

在许多俄罗斯人看来，普京对Telegram的打击更为激进。在封锁了Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp和YouTube之后，这位俄罗斯领导人现在又采取行动，削弱一款每月有超过1亿俄罗斯人用于通信和阅读新闻的应用（包括阅读来自被俄罗斯封禁的流亡媒体的新闻）。

Moscow is pressuring Russians instead to use a new Kremlin-approved “super app” known as MAX. Russian media outlets have reported that Moscow plans to block Telegram fully starting Wednesday, but signs have emerged that they could delay the move amid a public backlash.

与此同时，莫斯科方面正迫使俄罗斯人改用一款经克里姆林宫批准的“超级应用”——MAX。有俄罗斯媒体报道称，当局计划从周三起全面封锁Telegram，但有迹象显示，由于引发公众反弹，当局可能会推迟这一行动。

Of all the examples of growing repression in Russia during four years of war in Ukraine, few have touched more people than the internet restrictions.

在乌克兰战争持续的四年间，俄罗斯日益加剧的种种压制手段中，几乎没有哪一项像互联网限制举措那样影响到如此多的人。

The on-again, off-again blackouts and blockages have caused havoc as the digital services that power everyday life have flickered in and out, forcing people into a frustrating hunt for workarounds.

时断时续的断网和封锁造成了严重混乱，支撑日常生活的数字服务时有时无，迫使人们费尽周折寻找替代方案。

When the mobile internet went out in parts of Moscow, people started paying in cash. With taxi apps rendered useless, some hitched rides in passing cars. Sales of walkie-talkies, analog telephone lines, paper maps and old-school MP3 players spiked online. Even in the halls of the Kremlin, officials returned to using landlines.

当莫斯科部分地区的移动互联网中断时，人们开始改用现金支付。打车软件无法使用后，一些人只能搭乘顺路车。对讲机、模拟电话线路、纸质地图以及老式MP3播放器的网上销量激增。甚至在克里姆林宫内，官员们也重新用起座机电话。

本月，莫斯科市中心的移动互联网中断令许多俄罗斯人感到震惊。

Some of the impacts have been perilous. During outages, glucose-monitoring devices worn by children with diabetes, for instance, haven’t been able to transmit real-time updates that parents need to adjust the insulin levels.

一些影响甚至是危险的。例如在断网期间，糖尿病儿童佩戴的血糖监测设备无法传输实时数据，而父母需要这些数据来调整胰岛素剂量。

Amid all the disruption, signs of public anger have bubbled up, with efforts in some cities to hold protests over the internet outages and app throttling, though they have been blocked by authorities. To keep apps like Telegram working, millions of Russians have turned to virtual private networks, or VPNs, to circumvent the restrictions.

在种种混乱中，公众愤怒的迹象开始显现，一些城市出现了针对断网和应用程序限流的抗议活动，尽管这些抗议被当局阻止。为了正常使用Telegram等应用，数百万俄罗斯人转而使用VPN来绕过限制。

Titov, the editor of Ostorozhno Novosti, which is owned by Russian socialite and former presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak, underscored that Telegram was not simply a “social network” but the foundation of what remained of the unfettered Russian internet.

Ostorozhno Novosti频道的主编季托夫强调，Telegram不仅仅是一个“社交网络”，更是俄罗斯所剩无几的自由互联网的基石。该媒体由俄罗斯名媛、前总统候选人克谢尼娅·索布恰克所有。

“Telegram for Russians, at least of my generation — those who started using it at, say, 20 years old — is their entire internet life,” Titov said. In that sense, he said, “the entire internet system that people are used to is being destroyed right now.”

“对俄罗斯人来说，至少对我这一代人——比如从20岁开始使用Telegram的那批人——它几乎就是他们全部的互联网生活，”季托夫说。从这个意义上讲，他说，“人们所熟悉的整个互联网体系，现在正在被摧毁。”

Disappearing Freedom

正在消失的自由

For decades, Russians enjoyed a largely free and decentralized internet. A vibrant digital culture took root, with Russians expressing themselves openly, organizing politically and regularly using Western tech platforms.

几十年来，俄罗斯一直享有一个相对自由、去中心化的互联网环境。一种充满活力的数字文化在这里生根发芽，人们可以自由地表达观点、组织政治活动，而且可以经常使用西方科技平台。

After mass protests against Putin swept Moscow in 2011 and 2012, the Kremlin began to see the freewheeling Russian internet as a serious threat. Frustrated by the power of U.S. tech giants, Putin set out to build a “sovereign internet”— a hived-off online world he could control.

在2011年和2012年席卷莫斯科的大规模抗议活动之后，克里姆林宫开始将这种不受管控的俄罗斯互联网视为严重威胁。面对美国科技巨头的影响力，普京感到不满，于是着手打造一个“主权互联网”——一个他可以控制的、与外界隔绝的网络空间。

Perhaps no one represented the threat for the Kremlin more than anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, who rose to prominence as a LiveJournal blogger calling out state corruption. With videos garnering millions of views, he showed how viral online content could lead to real-world protests.

对克里姆林宫而言，也许没有人比反腐活动人士阿列克谢·纳瓦利内更具威胁性。他最初因在LiveJournal上揭露国家腐败走红。凭借获得数百万点击量的视频，他展示了爆火的网络内容如何在现实世界引发抗议。

Led by Roskomnadzor, the Russian communications regulator, Russian authorities blocked his website and pressured Western tech giants to remove his protest-voting app and video ads.

在俄罗斯通信监管机构Roskomnadzor牵头下，当局封锁了他的网站，并施压西方科技巨头删除他的抗议投票应用和相关视频广告。

Then, after Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin began curtailing Russian internet freedom with much bolder, more disruptive actions.

在2022年普京发动对乌克兰的全面入侵后，克里姆林宫开始以更为激进、更具破坏性的手段来收紧俄罗斯的互联网自由。

阿列克谢·纳瓦利内广泛的网络影响力曾对俄罗斯政府构成挑战。

Moscow swiftly banned Twitter, Instagram and Facebook outright, and eventually turned its attention to suffocating YouTube, long one of Russia’s most heavily used sites, as well as WhatsApp. VPN use soared.

莫斯科迅速屏蔽了Twitter、Instagram和Facebook，并最终将矛头指向YouTube——这个长期以来在俄罗斯使用最广泛的网站之一——以及WhatsApp，试图封杀它们。VPN的使用量随之激增。

Amid the state onslaught, Telegram remained a relatively open space.

在国家强力打压之下，Telegram一度仍是相对开放的空间。

Armed with its own network of Telegram channels, the Kremlin relied on the app to spread its messages of propaganda about the war, and soldiers used the app to stay in touch with their families and raise money for their units. At the same time, Russians could read unfiltered news and commentary by even the fiercest government critics.

利用自己的Telegram频道网络，克里姆林宫依靠这款应用传播其战争宣传信息，士兵则使用该应用与家人保持联系，并为部队筹集资金。与此同时，俄罗斯民众仍可以读到未经审查的新闻和评论，甚至包括最尖锐的批评政府的声音。

One of them was Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who posted unvarnished and expletive-laden videos on Telegram from the front. He developed a cult following among discontented soldiers that exploded into a failed coup in 2023, underscoring to the Kremlin how Telegram posts could fuel a real threat.

其中一位批评者是俄罗斯雇佣兵头目叶夫根尼·普里戈任。他在Telegram上发布未经修饰，甚至夹杂粗口的前线视频。他在心怀不满的士兵中培养了一批狂热的追随者，这股势力在2023年演变成一场未遂政变，这也让克里姆林宫意识到，Telegram上的帖子可能催生现实中的威胁。

‘Enemy Form of Communication’

“敌对的通信形式”

More than two years later, Roskomnadzor announced that it was throttling Telegram, saying in February that the app had violated Russian law by failing to protect personal data, combat fraud and prevent its use by terrorists and criminals.

两年多之后，俄罗斯通信监管机构Roskomnadzor宣布对Telegram进行限制，并在今年2月表示，该应用程序因未能保护个人数据、打击欺诈以及防止被恐怖分子和犯罪分子利用，因而违反了俄罗斯法律。

Intermittent blockages of the service began. The New York Times tested access to Telegram in mid-March using 72 servers across Russia and found that only 39 were able to load the app’s browser version.

此后，对该服务的间歇性封锁开始出现。《纽约时报》在3月中旬使用分布在俄罗斯各地的72台服务器测试了访问Telegram的情况，发现其中只有39台能够加载该应用的网页版。

Conventional wisdom long held that because Russia’s internet began free, it would be impossible technologically and politically for the Kremlin to put the genie back in the bottle.

长期以来，一种普遍看法认为，由于俄罗斯的互联网起步时是自由的，从技术和政治层面来说，克里姆林宫都不可能再把“精灵”重新塞回瓶子里。

Alena Epifanova, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said that while Russia was not able to replicate China’s “Great Firewall” approach, which closed off the Chinese internet from the start, it was quickly moving toward an Iranian model. That approach involves “white lists” of approved sites, targeted outages and an internal intranet under the government’s thumb, she said.

德国外交关系委员会的俄罗斯问题分析师阿列娜·叶皮凡诺娃表示，尽管俄罗斯无法复制中国那种从一开始就封闭互联网的“防火长城”模式，但它正迅速转向伊朗模式。她说，这种模式包括对网站实行“白名单”、实施定点断网，以及建立一个受政府控制的内部局域网。

Many Russians, including supporters of Putin, view disabling Telegram as a bridge too far.

许多俄罗斯人，包括一些普京的支持者，都认为封禁Telegram做得太过分了。

The decision even led to a fleeting return of politics in Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament.

这一决定甚至让长期形同橡皮图章的俄罗斯议会短暂出现了政治争论。

Sergei M. Mironov, the leader of the party A Just Russia and a vocal supporter of the war, called Telegram the “only reliable means of communication” for the Russian military.

公正俄罗斯党的领导人、乌克兰战争的高调支持者谢尔盖·米罗诺夫称，Telegram是俄罗斯军队“唯一可靠的通信手段”。

别尔哥罗德州州长维亚切斯拉夫·格拉德科夫去年在莫斯科，照片来自俄罗斯官方媒体发布。他称Telegram是关键的生存基础设施。

“Those who are shedding blood have no contact with their relatives and friends,” Mironov said. “What are you doing, you idiots?”

“那些正在流血牺牲的人无法与亲友取得联系，”米罗诺夫说。“你们在干什么，你们这些白痴？”

In a vote in Russia’s lower house of parliament, 77 deputies, including those from Mironov’s party and the Communist bloc, voted to ask Russian authorities to justify their decision. The measure failed, with 102 opposing it, but revealed rare divisions.

在俄罗斯国家杜马的一次投票中，包括米罗诺夫所在政党和共产党阵营在内的77名议员投票要求政府解释这一决定。该动议以102票反对未获通过，但暴露出罕见的意见分歧。

Putin, who has said that Moscow must “strangle” foreign tech firms to defend its sovereignty, has been largely silent on the matter.

普京此前曾表示，为了维护主权，莫斯科必须“扼杀”外国科技公司，但在该问题上他基本保持沉默。

In a March 5 meeting at the Kremlin, though, he pointedly asked a military officer whether using communication systems that “are not under our control” was dangerous for personnel.

不过，在3月5日克里姆林宫的一次会议上，他意味深长地询问一名军官，使用那些“不受我们控制”的通信系统，是否会对人员构成危险。

The officer said it was and called Telegram an “enemy form of communication.” Russian journalists later found that the officer had a premium Telegram account.

这名军官回答称确实如此，并称Telegram是一种“敌对的通信形式”。不过后来俄罗斯记者发现，这名军官本人却拥有Telegram的高级账号。

Stifled Discontent

被压制的不满情绪

Telegram, which combines the functionality of Twitter and WhatsApp, was created by Russian-born tech billionaire Pavel Durov, who now lives in the United Arab Emirates. Durov has denounced Moscow’s move as an affront to free speech and “a sad spectacle of a state afraid of its own people.” Russia has placed him under investigation.

Telegram融合了类似Twitter和WhatsApp的功能，由出生于俄罗斯的科技亿万富翁帕维尔·杜罗夫创建，他现居阿联酋。杜罗夫谴责莫斯科此举是对言论自由的侵犯，是“一个害怕自己人民的国家的可悲景象”。俄罗斯方面已对他展开调查。

Durov has yet to announce any countermoves but could make technical changes to Telegram that would help Russians access the app despite the blockages.

杜罗夫尚未宣布任何应对措施，但他可能通过技术手段调整Telegram，使俄罗斯用户在封锁的情况下仍能访问该应用。

Attempts to organize protests have failed.

组织抗议的尝试均告失败。

Permit requests for demonstrations against internet restrictions have been filed in 28 towns and cities across 17 Russian regions, according to Dmitri Kisiyev, a Russian political activist, but all were rejected. At least 50 people have been detained since December 2025 for staging protests against internet restrictions, said OVD-Info, a Russian human rights group.

据俄罗斯政治活动人士德米特里·基西耶夫称，俄罗斯17个地区的28个城镇已提交了针对互联网限制的抗议活动许可申请，但全部被拒。俄罗斯人权组织OVD-Info表示，自2025年12月以来，至少有50人因参加反对互联网限制的抗议活动而被拘留。

In Krasnodar, a city in Russia’s south, a local pro-war lawmaker, Alexander Safronov, received a permit for a 200-person protest, only to have it revoked, with city officials citing security concerns.

在俄罗斯南部城市克拉斯诺达尔，一名支持战争的地方议员亚历山大·萨夫罗诺夫原本获得了举行一场200人规模抗议的许可，但随后又被撤销，当地官员称是出于安全考虑。

俄罗斯彼尔姆市，一场原计划针对Telegram限制的抗议活动许可被撤销后，警察出现在现场。

“Left-wing people, right-wing people — many disagree with what is happening with the blockages and the throttling,” he said in a telephone interview. “The state isn’t even trying to talk to citizens clearly or seriously and doesn’t explain anything to them.”

“左翼人士、右翼人士——许多人都不同意封禁和限制使用的做法，”他在电话采访中说。“政府甚至没有试图与公民进行清晰、严肃的对话，也没有向他们做任何解释。”

Even as people express their anger and hope their workarounds last, many are resigned to a future under stricter state control.

尽管人们表达了愤怒，并希望翻墙手段能够一直有效，但许多人也逐渐接受一个现实：未来将处于更严格的国家控制之下。

Titov predicted that his news outlet would not have the same success on the state-controlled app MAX, whose parent company, social media giant VK, already censors critical comments and news. But he said he saw no way to roll everything back.

季托夫预测，他的新闻频道在政府管控的应用程序MAX上不会取得同样的成功。MAX的母公司、社交媒体巨头VK已经在对批评性的评论和新闻进行审查。但他说，他看不到任何能够回到过去的办法。

“It’s very easy to see dissatisfaction on the internet across all layers of society,” Titov said. “It just doesn’t go anywhere. Even among people who are for the war, there is a lot of criticism of the state, but everyone has sort of learned that you can’t do anything about it.”

“很容易在互联网上看到社会各阶层的不满，”季托夫说。“但这种不满无处宣泄。即使在支持战争的人当中，也有很多对国家的批评，但每个人都多少已经明白，对此你无能为力。”

Regime change has occurred in Iran. Or it hasn’t. It is a goal of the war. Except it isn’t.

伊朗已经发生了政权更迭。又或者根本没有。这是这场战争的目标。可又并非如此。

Those are some of the dizzying messages that have come from President Trump and his aides in recent days. The phrase “regime change” has flown from lips this week like fighter jets crisscrossing the Persian Gulf.

这些都是特朗普总统及其幕僚近几日放出的表态，令人无所适从。本周，“政权更迭”这个词从他们口中频频冒出，犹如波斯湾上空往来穿梭的战斗机。

But there appears to be disagreement among top administration officials on what the phrase means, or whether the United States and Israel have achieved it in four weeks of war against Iran.

但关于这个词的真正含义以及美以两国在对伊朗开战的四周里是否实现了这一目标，美国政府高层官员之间显然存在分歧。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unequivocal declaration about the Iranian government at a news conference on Tuesday: “This new regime, because regime change has occurred, should be wiser than the last. President Trump will make a deal. He is willing.”

在周二的新闻发布会上，国防部长皮特·海格塞思针对伊朗政府作出了斩钉截铁的表态：“既然政权更迭已经发生，这个新政权理应比上一届更明智。特朗普总统会达成协议的，他愿意这样做。”

A common definition of regime change is a forced transformation of government or leadership that results in structural alterations in policies, politics and governance. In Iran, a theocratic leadership that is authoritarian and anti-American — and that continues to wage war — remains in place.

政权更迭的普遍定义是通过强制手段改组政府或领导层，进而带来政策、政治格局与治理体系的结构性变革。而在伊朗，那个威权、反美、且仍在持续作战的神权领导层至今依然掌权。

On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the president’s national security adviser, expressed some doubt in an interview with ABC News about whether anything had really changed in Iran.

周一，在接受ABC新闻采访时，身兼总统国家安全顾问的国务卿鲁比奥对伊朗是否真的发生了实质性变化表达了些许质疑。

“The people who lead them, this clerical regime, that is the problem,” he said. “And if there are new people now in charge who have a more reasonable vision of the future, that would be good news for us, for them, for the entire world. But we also have to be prepared for the possibility, maybe even the probability, that that is not the case.”

“领导他们的人，这个神职人员政权，才是问题所在，”他说。“如果现在掌权的是对未来抱有更理性构想的新领导层，那对我们、对伊朗、对整个世界而言，都会是好消息。但我们也必须做好准备，应对这种情况不会发生，甚至是大概率不会发生的可能性。”

美以联军对德黑兰的空袭仍在继续。

Later, speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Rubio made it clear that destroying Iran’s weapons was important because the current leadership — the new regime, as Mr. Hegseth puts it — is an adversary.

随后，鲁比奥在接受半岛电视台采访时明确表示，摧毁伊朗的武器装备至关重要，因为该国现任领导层——也就是海格塞思口中的“新政权”——仍是美国的对手。

“I think the best way to stability, given the people who are in charge in Iran, is to destroy the ability of Iran in the future to launch these missiles and these drones against their infrastructure and civilian populations,” Mr. Rubio said.

鲁比奥称：“鉴于伊朗当前执掌权力的人，我认为，实现地区稳定的最佳途径，就是彻底摧毁伊朗未来针对基础设施与平民发射导弹与无人机的能力。”

He added that “our objectives here from the very beginning had nothing to do with the leadership.”

他还补充道：“我们从一开始的行动目标就和该国领导层无关。”

Mr. Trump opened the war on Feb. 28 by working with Israel to carry out a strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, and other top officials. Hours later, he called for Iranians to overthrow their government sometime after the bombing stopped. The uprising, which was promised to Mr. Trump by Israeli leaders, has not materialized, but the president is saying mission accomplished on regime change.

2月28日，特朗普联合以色列发动空袭，炸死了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其他多名高层官员，就此开启这场战争。空袭结束数小时后，他便呼吁伊朗民众在轰炸停止后推翻本国政府。以色列领导人曾向特朗普承诺的伊朗民众起义至今并未发生，但总统却宣称，政权更迭的目标已经达成。

In fact, he said, the United States has been so successful that it has ended not just one, but two Iranian regimes.

事实上，他还声称，美国取得的战果极为辉煌，不仅终结了伊朗的一个政权，甚至是两个。

“We’ve had regime change, if you look, already because the one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Sunday aboard Air Force One. “The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people. So I would consider that regime change.”

“你看看就知道，我们已经实现了政权更迭。因为上一个政权已经被彻底摧毁、毁灭，他们都死了，”周日，特朗普在空军一号上对记者表示。“继任的这个政权也基本都死了。现在是第三个政权，我们打交道的是以前从没有人接触过的一群人，是完全不同的一群人。所以我觉得，这就是政权更迭。”

To emphasize the point, he said, “Regime change is an imperative, but I think we have it automatically.”

为了强调这一点，他还说：“政权更迭是必须实现的，但在我看来，我们已经自动完成完成了这个目标。”

Mr. Trump’s talk of the destruction of two regimes appeared to refer to the initial attacks that killed Mr. Khamenei and other senior officials and also injured his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who was later appointed by a group of clerics to be Iran’s new supreme leader. Iranian and Israeli officials say the son suffered leg injuries, and he has not appeared in public during the war.

特朗普口中两个政权的覆灭似乎指的是最初的空袭行动：此次袭击不仅炸死了哈梅内伊及其他多名高层官员，还炸伤了他的儿子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，穆杰塔巴随后由一众神职人员任命为伊朗新任最高领袖。伊朗与以色列官方均表示，哈梅内伊之子腿部受伤，自战争爆发以来从未公开露面。

The younger Mr. Khamenei is considered a hard-line ally of a powerful arm of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The government in Tehran vows resistance and continues to fight the United States, Israel and Arab partners, and to block energy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the global economy.

外界普遍认为，小哈梅内伊是伊朗军方核心力量伊斯兰革命卫队的强硬派盟友。德黑兰政府已誓言抵抗，仍在持续与美国、以色列及阿拉伯盟友作战，并持续封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能源航运，对全球经济造成冲击。

“There has been personnel change in Iran, not regime change,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a scholar of Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “Different men with the same ideology.”

华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会的伊朗问题专家卡里姆·萨贾德普尔表示：“伊朗发生的只是人事变动，绝非政权更迭。换了人，但意识形态没有变。”

Mr. Trump’s remarks about regime change have muddied the waters. But his military actions and coercive economic warfare against a handful of nations — Iran, Venezuela and Cuba — are aimed so far at decapitating leadership to put in power someone who will accede to U.S. demands, rather than effecting a wholesale transformation of the political system.

特朗普关于政权更迭的表态让事态变得愈发扑朔迷离。但截至目前，他针对伊朗、委内瑞拉、古巴等少数国家采取军事行动与强制性经济战，核心目标始终是对他国领导层实施斩首，扶持愿意屈从美国要求的人上台，而非对该国政治体系进行彻底的全面变革。

The president’s aim is to create client states by coercing regime compliance, part of a greater project of resurrecting empire. And he constantly talks about a template: the U.S. military’s violent incursion into Venezuela in January to seize Nicolás Maduro, the country’s president, and Mr. Trump’s subsequent negotiations over oil and other matters with the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, who like Mr. Maduro is a hard-line leftist.

总统的目标是通过逼迫他国政权顺从打造一批附庸国，这也是他复兴帝国这一宏大计划的一部分。他还频频提及一个模板：今年1月，美军暴力入侵委内瑞拉，抓捕了该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗；随后特朗普便与代总统德尔西·罗德里格斯就石油等事宜展开谈判，而罗德里格斯与马杜罗一样同属强硬左翼阵营。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said at a news conference on Monday that the United States and Israel had to kill the older Mr. Khamenei and some of his aides after it proved too difficult to do diplomacy with them. Those previous leaders “are now no longer on planet Earth,” she said, “because they lied to the United States and they strung us along in negotiations, and that was unacceptable to the president, which is why many of the previous leaders were killed.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在周一的新闻发布会上表示，由于与老哈梅内伊及其部分幕僚开展外交谈判的努力彻底落空，美国与以色列不得不将其除掉。她称，这些前领导人“如今已经不在人间，是因为他们欺骗了美国，在谈判中敷衍了事，这是总统无法接受的，这也是众多前领导层成员被杀死的原因”。

Mr. Trump’s braggadocio over accomplishing what he calls regime change is fairly new. In 2016, when he was running for president, he criticized the wasteful U.S. “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying that “we must abandon the failed policy of nation-building and regime change.” In May, he gave a speech in Saudi Arabia in which he said that “in the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.”

特朗普吹嘘自己完成了所谓政权更迭其实是近期才有的论调。2016年竞选总统时，他曾批评美国在伊拉克和阿富汗发动的劳民伤财的“永久战争”，称“我们必须摒弃国家建设与政权更迭这套失败的政策”。去年5月，他还在沙特阿拉伯发表演讲称，“到头来，这些所谓的国家建设者，毁掉的国家远比建设的多；而这些干涉主义者，干涉的是他们根本一无所知的复杂社会。”

Despite his embrace of war and military violence, Mr. Trump’s instinct to refrain from committing the United States to completely transforming hostile nations appears to persist for now.

尽管如今他已然拥抱战争与军事暴力，但截至目前，特朗普不愿让美国背负起彻底改造敌对国家的重担，这一本能似乎并未改变。

The president’s remarks this week asserting that leadership decapitation is regime change can be interpreted as an attempt to redefine the phrase so that he can say his original war goal has been met.

总统本周宣称“对领导层实施斩首就是实现政权更迭”的言论可被解读为他试图重新定义这个词汇，以此宣告自己已经达成了这场战争的初始目标。

“The administration as a whole seems to be moving away from deep regime change as a goal of the war,” said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities in Washington. “A real regime change war in Iran would require boots on the ground — and a lot of them — and Trump wisely doesn’t want to commit that level of effort when the costs and risks far outweigh the benefits.”

华盛顿智库“国防优先”中东项目主任罗斯玛丽·凯拉尼克表示：“整个美国政府，似乎正在逐步放弃将深度政权更迭作为这场战争的目标。想要在伊朗发动一场真正意义上的政权更迭战争，就必须投入地面部队——而且是大量地面部队。特朗普很明智，不愿在这件成本与风险远大于收益的事上投入如此多的精力。”

For the last few months, a plan by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan to increase military spending by $40 billion over eight years has been held up by his political rivals. This week, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators used a visit to Taiwan to throw their support behind the plan, which is seen as a building block for easing concerns in Washington about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense.

过去几个月来，台湾总统赖清德提出的八年内追加1.25万亿新台币（约合400亿美元）的国防预算计划一直遭到政治对手的阻挠。本周，一个由美国两党参议员组成的代表团利用访台机会表达了对该计划的支持。该预算计划被视为缓解华盛顿方面对台湾自身防务承诺担忧的关键基石。

The two Republican and two Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee also tried to demonstrate U.S. commitment to the island at a time when the Trump administration has made negotiations with Beijing a priority.

特朗普政府将与北京的谈判列为优先事项之际，这四位来自参议院外交委员会的议员（两名共和党人，两名民主党人）也试图展示美国对台承诺。

Even so, the senators heard concerns from Taiwan about delays in deliveries of U.S. weapons already purchased. And China, which claims Taiwan as its territory and has urged President Trump to curb arms sales to Taiwan, protested the visit.

不过，这些参议员也听到了台湾方面对已采购的美国武器交付延误的担忧。同时，中国方面对这次访问提出了抗议。中国宣称对台湾拥有主权，并已敦促特朗普总统限制对台军售。

Why Taiwan’s $40 Billion Defense Plan is Stuck

为什么400亿美元的国防计划陷入停滞

The senators publicly urged Taiwanese lawmakers to approve President Lai’s spending proposal, arguing that the extra money could help deter China from contemplating an attack and also spur the growth of Taiwan’s own defense industry, such as in drones and munitions.

参议员们公开敦促台湾立法机构批准赖清德的支出提案，称这笔追加资金不仅有助于威慑中国，使其不敢轻举妄动，同时也能推动台湾自身国防工业的增长，例如无人机和弹药等领域。

“it’s also about capabilities that are critical rather than a single dollar amount,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat from New Hampshire, told reporters in Taipei. “Those capabilities, as we look at the potential threat and the challenges ahead, require a certain level of capability and technological expertise that are going to cost.”

来自新罕布什尔州的民主党参议员珍妮·夏欣在台北对记者表示：“这不仅是钱的问题，更关乎关键能力的建设。面对潜在威胁和未来挑战，这些能力需要达到一定水平，而这必然需要投入相应的技术和资金。”

President Lai’s proposal, which he put forward after pressure from the Trump administration on Taiwan to spend more on its own defense, has been bogged down in the legislature, where opposition parties have a majority.

赖清德总统的这项提案是在特朗普政府施压要求台湾增加国防支出的背景下提出的。但由于在野党在立法机构中占多数席位，该提案目前在立法院遇阻。

Taiwan’s Nationalist Party, the main opposition, has criticized Mr. Lai’s proposal, saying it lacks transparency. They have also cited concerns about a backlog of undelivered arms orders from the United States.

台湾主要在野党国民党批评赖清德的提案缺乏透明度，并指出美国积压的武器订单尚未交付，令他们担忧。

On Monday, Deputy Defense Minister Hsu Szu-chien of Taiwan aired those concerns to the senators during a visit to a research institute that is developing drones. “There are still items that we have already paid for and are not yet delivered,” Mr. Hsu said in televised comments, explaining that he was relaying a message from a Taiwanese opposition lawmaker.

周一，台湾国防部副部长徐斯俭在陪同参议员参观一家无人机研发机构时，表达了这些关切。“目前仍有部分军购项目已经付款但尚未交货，”徐斯俭在电视播出的发言中说，并表示这是转达一位台湾在野党立委的意见。

The Nationalist Party’s chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, has proposed $12 billion in funding to pay for more weapons from the United States, with more purchases possible later.

国民党主席郑丽文提议拨款3800亿台币（约合120亿美元）用于购买更多美国武器，并表示后续可能还会进行更多采购。

The senators’ comments matter in Taiwan, where voters and many politicians are generally sensitive to views from Washington, and they could embolden some opposition politicians to back bigger increases in military spending.

这些参议员的表态在台湾具有重要影响，因为台湾的选民和许多政界人士通常对华盛顿的态度非常敏感。这些言论也可能促使部分在野党政治人物支持更大幅度的军费增长。

How a Trump-Xi Summit Could Change the Stakes

“习特会”将如何改变博弈筹码

President Trump is scheduled to meet China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in mid-May, prompting speculation about whether Mr. Trump could soften U.S. verbal support for Taiwan. The Trump administration has already held off from deciding on an package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at billions of dollars to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi, according to U.S. officials. In a phone call last month, Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump that arms sales to Taiwan should be carefully handled.

特朗普总统计划在5月中旬与中国领导人习近平会面，这引发了外界对于特朗普是否会软化美国对台口头支持的猜测。据美国官员透露，特朗普政府已暂缓决定一项价值数十亿美元的对台军售方案，以避免激怒习近平。习近平在上个月的通话中曾警告特朗普，对台军售问题应当谨慎处理。

Some experts have said, for example, that Mr. Xi may try to coax Mr. Trump to say that the United States opposes independence for Taiwan. There are no signs that Taiwan wants to claim formal independence, and opposition from Washington to any such move would not be new. But such words would carry more weight if Mr. Trump uttered them in Beijing, and could magnify jitters in Taiwan about Mr. Trump’s commitment to the island.

一些专家表示，举例而言，习近平可能会试图劝诱特朗普表态美国反对台湾独立。实际上目前没有迹象表明台湾有意宣布正式独立，而华盛顿反对此类举动也并非新鲜事。但如果这些话是特朗普在北京亲口说出，其分量将更重，并可能加剧台湾内部对特朗普是否坚定支持这个岛屿的担忧。

Senator John Curtis, a Republican representing Utah, said support for Taiwan remained strong and bipartisan in the U.S. Congress. It need not be bad for Taiwan if U.S.-China relations improve, he added. “If we have a bad relationship with China, it is far more likely that China would be aggressive to Taiwan,” he said.

代表犹他州的共和党参议员匡希恒(John Curtis)表示，美国国会对台湾的支持依然稳固，而且是跨党派的。他补充道，美中关系的改善对台湾而言未必是坏事。“如果我们与中国的关系恶化，中国反而更有可能对台湾采取激进行动，”他说道。

China Warns of ‘Wrong Signals’ Sent by Visit

中国警告：访问释放了“错误信号”

The visit by the senators was met with protest in Beijing, in line with the Chinese government’s long opposition to visits by foreign lawmakers to Taipei, which China views as an endorsement of the island’s push for international recognition.

参议员的此次访问遭到了北京方面的抗议，这与中国政府长期以来反对外国议员访问台北的立场一致。中国认为，这类访问等同于对台湾争取国际承认的支持。

Mao Ning, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, accused the United States of sending “wrong signals” to so-called separatist forces, which is Beijing’s term for Mr. Lai’s party, which is skeptical of Beijing and asserts that Taiwan is in effect independent.

中国外交部发言人毛宁指责美国向所谓“分裂势力”发出“错误信号”。“分裂势力”是北京对赖清德所属政党的称呼，该党对北京持怀疑态度，并主张台湾事实上已经是独立的。

Chinese media cited Chinese scholars as saying the visit was nothing more than a political show by the governing party of Taiwan to pressure the opposition.

中国媒体援引学者的观点称，此次访问无非是台湾执政党为了向在野党施压而搞的一场政治表演。

China has also sought to show that it has influence in Taiwan’s political landscape. The Senate delegation’s visit to Taiwan coincided with an announcement on Monday from Ms. Cheng of the Nationalist Party that she will visit China next week, possibly for a meeting with Mr. Xi.

中国也试图展示其在台湾政治格局中的影响力。参议院代表团访台之际，国民党主席郑丽文周一宣布，她将于下周访问中国，期间或将与习近平会面。

“We think that dialogue is a good thing. As we know, President Trump is going to be visiting China next month,” Ms. Shaheen said when asked about Ms. Cheng’s trip. But, the senator added, China should be open to talking to all of Taiwan’s political parties.

当被问及郑丽文此行时，参议员夏欣表示：“我们认为对话是好事。正如我们所知，特朗普总统下个月也将访问中国。”但她补充道，中国应当对与台湾所有政党展开对话持开放态度。

A month into the war in the Middle East, an unlikely shortage of an irreplaceable gas is looming over the global economy.

中东战事爆发一月有余，一种无可替代的气体正意外出现供应短缺，给全球经济蒙上阴影。

Helium is a gas that is odorless, colorless and lighter than air. It is also indispensable to manufacturing the computer chips that power artificial intelligence, an important driver of U.S. markets and economic growth.

氦气是一种无色无味、比空气轻的气体。对于制造驱动人工智能运行的计算机芯片而言，它是不可或缺的原料，而人工智能是推动美国市场与经济增长的核心引擎。

A byproduct of natural gas processing, helium is produced mainly in the United States and Qatar. When output in Qatar was halted this month, it cut off roughly a third of the global supply. The outlook worsened last week after Iran struck Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas facility, damaging helium production lines that could take years to rebuild.

氦气是天然气加工的副产品，主产国为美国和卡塔尔。本月卡塔尔氦气生产中断，直接切断了全球约三分之一的供应量。上周伊朗袭击了卡塔尔最大的液化天然气设施，导致氦气生产线受损，重建可能需要数年时间，这使得前景进一步恶化。

Without helium, leading chip makers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, could struggle to keep production lines running, with cascading effects for semiconductor-powered devices from Apple’s iPhones to Nvidia’s A.I. servers.

一旦失去氦气，包括台积电、韩国三星电子与SK海力士在内的全球头部芯片制造商将难以维持生产线运转。这一冲击会沿着产业链层层传导，将对从苹果iPhone到英伟达AI服务器的各类半导体设备产生连锁反应。

Helium may be best known for keeping balloons afloat, but its industrial uses are far more consequential. As the coldest liquid on earth, it cools superconducting magnets in M.R.I. machines. A shortage could ripple far beyond chip making, affecting everything from scientific research to space travel.

氦气最为人熟知的用途或许是给气球充气使其升空，但其工业用途远比这更为重要。作为地球上温度最低的液体，液氦可为核磁共振成像仪(MRI)中的超导磁体提供冷却。氦气短缺的涟漪效应将远远超出芯片制造领域，波及从科研到航天航空的方方面面。

Semiconductor companies rely on helium at multiple stages of chip manufacturing. As intricate machines etch tiny circuits onto thin wafers of silicon, helium cools them from below to maintain the right temperature. After the wafers are washed with chemicals, helium is used to flush out toxic residue.

半导体企业在芯片制造的多个核心环节都离不开氦气：当精密设备将微小电路蚀刻到薄薄的硅片上时，氦气会从设备下方持续进行冷却，以维持适当的工作温度；晶圆经化学试剂清洗后，也需要用氦气冲洗清除有毒残留物。

台中港是台湾境内能够接收和储存液化天然气的三个港口之一。

Analysts said it could take weeks or months for the semiconductor industry to feel the shortage, with chip companies relying on stored helium and what was already en route to Asia when the war in the Middle East began.

分析师表示，半导体行业可能要数周乃至数月后才会切实感受到此次短缺的冲击，因为芯片公司目前仍依赖库存氦气以及中东战争爆发时已运往亚洲的氦气。。

But the question is whether existing supplies can bridge the gap while the entire global helium trade is reorganized to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has been effectively closed to tankers since the U.S.-Israeli military campaign began last month.

但核心问题在于，当前的库存能否填补供应缺口，撑到全球氦气贸易完成全线重组、避开霍尔木兹海峡之时。自上月美以军事行动启动以来，这条狭窄的关键水道实质上已对运输船关闭。

About 200 specialized containers used to transport helium were stranded in the strait at the outset of the war, said Phil Kornbluth, a former gas industry executive and helium industry consultant. It could take months to reposition them, refill them and deliver the gas to customers.

前天然气行业高管、氦气行业顾问菲尔·科恩布卢斯称，战事爆发之初，约200个氦气专用运输集装箱滞留在霍尔木兹海峡。重新调配这些集装箱、重新装载并向客户交付气体可能需要数月时间。

With both logistics disrupted and production facilities damaged, analysts say it is only a matter of time until the helium shortage reaches the semiconductor industry.

分析师普遍认为，物流受阻叠加生产设施损毁，氦气短缺传导至半导体行业只是时间问题。

“There is a tsunami coming, but it’s still a thousand miles offshore,” Mr. Kornbluth said. “Right now, it’s still sunny on the beach.”

“一场海啸正在袭来，只是目前还在海岸的千里之外，”科恩布卢斯说。“此刻，海滩上依旧阳光明媚。”

TSMC said it was monitoring the situation closely and did not anticipate any significant impact at this time. Samsung and SK Hynix declined to comment.

台积电表示，正密切关注事态发展，目前预计不会对公司运营产生重大影响。三星与SK海力士则拒绝就此置评。

As chip makers race to meet the insatiable demand for artificial intelligence, their ability to do so will depend in part on whether gas suppliers can secure enough helium.

在芯片制造商竞相满足人工智能领域永无止境的需求之际，其产能能否跟上这一目标部分取决于气体供应商能否确保获得足够的氦气。

On Wednesday, in Taichung, a city on Taiwan’s west coast, France’s Air Liquide opened a factory near one of the country’s few ports equipped to handle and store liquefied natural gas and helium. Until a few weeks ago, about a third of Taiwan’s natural gas and most of its helium came from Qatar.

本周三，法国液化空气集团在台湾西海岸的台中市落成一座新工厂，选址紧邻台湾少数几个具备处理和储存液化天然气及氦气能力的港口之一。直至几周前，台湾约三分之一的天然气和绝大多数氦气进口货源都来自卡塔尔。

上周三，液化空气集团高管阿梅尔·勒维厄（中）及其他高管在台中发表了讲话。

Air Liquide, which supplies industrial gases to most major chip makers, was assessing customers’ stockpiles and working to ensure supply, while diversifying its helium sources, according to Armelle Levieux, a vice president at the company.

液化空气集团副总裁阿梅尔·勒维厄表示，作为全球多数头部芯片制造商的工业气体核心供应商，公司正在全面评估客户的库存情况，全力保障供应稳定，同时加速推进氦气来源的多元化。

But replacing lost supply is not as simple as buying more helium from the United States and stockpiling it at factories.

但填补此次的供应缺口绝非简单地从美国采购更多氦气、再储存在工厂里就能实现。

Like liquefied natural gas, helium needs to be transported in a special container that can keep it in liquid form. For helium, that means storage near absolute zero or about the temperature of outer space. At such temperatures, helium must be transported as a hazardous material, and only certain trucks and ships can carry it.

与液化天然气一样，氦气需要装在能使其保持液态的特殊容器中运输。对于氦气而言，这意味着储存环境必须接近绝对零度，约等于外太空的温度。在这种超低温条件下，氦气必须按危险品规范运输，只有具备资质的专用卡车和船舶能够承运。

The containers are insulated with liquid nitrogen, which absorbs heat during the journey. But only for so long. Once the nitrogen is depleted, the helium warms, expands rapidly into a gas and becomes dangerous to store.

这些容器内充有液氮，液氮在运输过程中会吸收热量，但隔热效果有明确的时限。一旦液氮耗尽，氦气就会升温，迅速膨胀成气体，储存风险会大幅攀升。

Chip makers “can only keep about a month and a half supply sitting around; otherwise, it starts heating up,” said Richard Brook, a former executive at Air Liquide and the chief executive of Garrison Ventures, a helium industry consultancy.

液化空气集团前高管、氦气行业咨询公司加里森风投首席执行官理查德·布鲁克表示，芯片制造商“只能储备约一个半月的氦气库存，否则，氦气就会开始升温”。

自2019年以来，液化空气集团已投资超过10亿欧元拓展其在台湾的业务。

As gas companies scramble to tap alternative sources and secure additional containers in the region, chip makers should have enough helium for several months, said Arisa Liu, a director at Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a think tank.

台湾智库台湾经济研究院的一位总监刘佩真表示，在气体企业争相寻找替代气源、在亚太地区筹措更多专用运输容器的同时，芯片制造商的氦气库存预计还能支撑数月。

Chip makers in South Korea are especially exposed. About two-thirds of the country’s helium imports came from Qatar last year, according to Fitch Ratings. It relies heavily on the Middle East for more than a dozen types of chip-making materials and equipment, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

韩国的芯片制造商面临的风险尤为突出。惠誉评级的数据显示，2025年韩国约三分之二的氦气进口来自卡塔尔。韩国产业通商资源部的数据则显示，该国十几种芯片制造必需的材料和设备，都高度依赖中东地区供应。

South Korea’s semiconductor companies, which produce the memory chips crucial to A.I., are already struggling to make enough to keep up with booming global demand. Prices have already been driven higher.

韩国半导体企业生产的存储芯片是人工智能领域的至关重要的部件，目前这些企业本就难以满足全球激增的需求，价格因此已被推高。

When helium is scarce, it goes to whoever can pay the most. In past shortages, chip makers, with their deep pockets, have outbid the competition, leaving other sectors dependent on helium like pharmaceuticals and medical imaging short of supply.

氦气供应紧缺时，货源会优先流向出价最高的买家。在过往的全球氦气短缺危机中，资金雄厚的芯片制造商总能在竞价中胜出，导致制药、医学影像等其他同样依赖氦气的行业陷入供应不足的困境。

“The semiconductor industry will pay whatever they need to pay to get that helium,” Mr. Brook said. Since the cost of shutting down a chip factory would be enormous, “they’ll outbid anybody,” he said.

“为了拿到氦气，半导体行业愿意付出任何必要的成本，”布鲁克表示。由于芯片工厂停工的损失过于巨大，“他们会压倒任何竞争对手的报价，”他说。

液化空气集团位于台中的产业园区，这里是台湾西海岸为芯片产业供应原材料的密集工厂网络的一部分。

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has fractured the Iranian government, complicating its ability to make decisions and coordinate larger retaliatory attacks, according to officials familiar with U.S. and Western intelligence assessments.

据了解美国及西方情报评估的官员透露，美以对伊朗发动的战争已导致伊朗政府体系出现分裂，其决策能力、协调大规模报复性袭击的能力均受到严重影响。

Several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed since the war began four weeks ago. Those who survive have had difficulty communicating and are unable to meet in person, for fear of having their calls intercepted by the United States or Israel and being targeted in an airstrike.

自四周前战争爆发以来，已有数十名伊朗高层官员及其副手丧生。幸存的官员难以开展正常沟通，也无法当面会晤，因为他们担心通话会被美以两国截听，进而成为空袭的打击目标。

While Iran’s security and military agencies continue to function, the government’s ability to plan new strategies or policies has been weakened.

尽管伊朗的安全与军事机构仍在运转，但该国政府制定新战略、新政策的能力已被大幅削弱。

The Trump administration has said a new government is in charge in Iran and has pressed it to make a quick deal. But the more degraded Iranian government decision making becomes, the more difficult it will be for it to negotiate with American envoys or make significant concessions.

特朗普政府称，伊朗目前已由新政府掌权，并向该新政府施压要求迅速达成协议。但伊朗政府的决策能力越退化，就越难与美国特使展开谈判，也越难做出重大让步。

特朗普总统及其政府表示，伊朗已由新政府掌权，并敦促该新政府尽快达成协议。

With different leaders in place, Iranian negotiators may have little knowledge about what their government is willing to concede, or even whom precisely to ask.

由于掌权的领导层频繁更迭，伊朗谈判代表可能完全不清楚本国政府愿意做出哪些让步，甚至不知道该向谁请示。

What is more, American officials say hard-liners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have become more influential in Iran, exerting more power than the religious leadership nominally in charge.

此外，美国官员表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队内部的强硬派势力在国内的影响力进一步上升，其掌握的实权已超过名义上掌权的宗教领导层。

But whether someone emerges to make a deal, and whether that person can persuade other officials to agree to it, is far from clear. Former American officials say Iran will make a deal when it suffers enough economic pain from the war. While the damage has been severe, Iran may not yet feel as though it is losing, according to current and former officials.

但目前尚不清楚是否会有人出面敲定协议，也无法确定此人能否说服其他官员认可协议内容。美国前政府官员称，只有当伊朗因战争遭受足够的经济痛苦时，才会同意签署协议。多名现任及前任官员均表示，尽管伊朗已遭受重创，但该国目前可能仍不认为自己处于战败状态。

On Monday, President Trump threatened to expand the war if a deal was not quickly reached, suggesting that U.S. forces might try to take Kharg Island, Iran’s main hub for oil exports.

周一，特朗普总统发出威胁，称若不能迅速达成协议，将扩大战争规模，还暗示美军可能会试图夺取伊朗石油出口核心枢纽哈尔克岛。

Iran’s compromised communications have caused confusion and paranoia among the surviving government leaders, who fear that their calls and messages are being intercepted by Israeli intelligence, officials say. As a result, they have been reluctant to make calls, according to officials briefed on Western intelligence assessments.

官员透露，伊朗的通信系统已遭破坏，这在幸存的政府高层中引发了混乱与猜疑，他们担心自己的通话和信息会被以色列情报机构截获。据了解西方情报评估的官员称，正因如此，这些高层官员一直不愿进行通话联络。

Israel began the war with a strike on the leadership compound that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and much of the national security leadership. A number of lower-level officials seen by the United States as more pragmatic were also killed in the strike, U.S. officials said. Mr. Trump himself made reference in interviews that potential candidates to lead Iran had been killed.

以色列以一场针对伊朗最高领袖官邸的空袭拉开了战争序幕，这场袭击导致伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊及大部分国家安全领导层身亡。美国官员称，多名被美方视为态度更务实的中低层官员也在此次空袭中丧生。特朗普本人在采访中也提及，有望执掌伊朗的潜在人选已在袭击中身亡。

The attack severed many connections between security, military and civilian policymakers, according to Western officials and others briefed on government assessments.

据西方官员及了解相关政府评估的人士透露，这场袭击切断了伊朗安全部门、军方与民事政策制定部门之间的大量联络。

It is unclear how much control the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is exerting over the government. He has not been seen in public, and U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies believe he was wounded during the war.

目前尚不清楚伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊对政府的实际掌控力度。他一直未公开露面，美以两国情报机构均认为他在战争中受了伤。

周一以色列和美国对德黑兰发动空袭后的景象。

Some intelligence officials believe that Mr. Khamenei may be more of a figurehead, and that the surviving leadership of the Revolutionary Guards is making the decisions.

部分情报官员认为，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊可能更多只是傀儡，实际决策权掌握在革命卫队幸存的领导层手中。

A senior U.S. military official said Iranian command and control has been badly degraded by American and Israeli strikes. Still, the official and a senior intelligence official said, before the war Iran built a decentralized control system that allows local commanders in different regions of the country to make their own strike decisions, even in the absence of direct day-to-day orders from Tehran.

一名美军高级官员表示，美以两国的空袭已严重摧毁了伊朗的指挥控制系统。但该官员与一名高级情报官员还指出，伊朗在战前就已建立了一套去中心化的指挥体系，即便没有来自德黑兰的日常直接指令，该国不同地区的地方指挥官也可自行做出打击决策。

The United States is targeting those local commanders, the senior military official said. Nevertheless, Iran has proved it can still launch substantial offensive strikes like the missile and drone attack at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last week.

这名高级官员称，美方已将这些地方指挥官列为打击目标。尽管如此，伊朗已证明其仍有能力发动大规模攻势，比如上周针对沙特阿拉伯苏丹王子空军基地的导弹与无人机袭击。

But the retaliatory attacks have not been as large, or as effective, as they might have been because of the problems in the Iranian government. Given the decimation of its leadership, former U.S. officials say, Iran has been unable to launch larger barrages of missiles that could more easily overwhelm defenses. Instead, regional commands have had to muster counterattacks without coordinating with one another.

但受伊朗政府内部问题影响，这些报复性袭击的规模与效果均未达到原本可实现的水平。美国前政府官员称，由于领导层伤亡惨重，伊朗无力发动规模更大、更易突破防御系统的密集导弹打击，只能由各地区指挥部在互不协同的情况下各自组织反击。

Mr. Trump has expressed frustration with what he has portrayed as mixed messaging from the Iranian leadership.

特朗普对伊朗领导层释放的前后矛盾的信号表达了不满。

“The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange,’” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Thursday. “They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’”

特朗普上周四在社交媒体上发文称：“伊朗谈判代表和以前大不一样，而且‘古怪’。他们‘乞求’我们达成协议——既然他们在军事上已被彻底击溃，毫无翻盘可能，这本来就是他们该做的事——然而却在公开场合却声称只是在‘研究我们的提案’。”

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump said the campaign of airstrikes had resulted in new leadership in Iran and again claimed progress in talks.

上周末，特朗普表示，持续的空袭行动已促成伊朗领导层更迭，并再次宣称谈判取得了进展。

“It’s a whole different group of people,” Mr. Trump said on Sunday. “So I would consider that regime change, and frankly, they’ve been very reasonable.”

特朗普周日称：“现在是完全不同的一群人。所以我会认为这算得上政权更迭，坦白说，他们一直很通情达理。”

In a social media post on Monday, Mr. Trump offered optimistic assessments of the current government but also threatened to expand the war by targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. He said that if a deal was not reached shortly, and if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, he would attack Iran’s electrical generation plants, oil wells and desalination plants.

在周一的社交媒体帖子中，特朗普对伊朗现任政府给出了乐观的评价，但也威胁要将战争扩大到能源和民用基础设施领域。他表示，若短期内无法达成协议，且霍尔木兹海峡持续处于关闭状态，美军将袭击伊朗的发电厂、油井与海水淡化厂。

People briefed on intelligence assessments said Mr. Trump’s frustration reflected the inability of the current Iranian government to coordinate a response and make a decision about the American peace proposals.

了解相关情报评估的人士表示，特朗普的不满恰恰反映出伊朗现任政府无力协调应对措施，也无法就美方的和平提案做出最终决策。

Israeli officials have said the communication problems in Iran are not dissimilar to the problems with hostage negotiations during the Gaza war. In Gaza, offers from the United States and Israel went to Hamas leaders in Qatar, and then were conveyed in written notes to leaders in Gaza, a time-consuming process that introduced confusion.

以色列官员表示，伊朗当前面临的通信问题与加沙战争期间人质谈判遭遇的问题极为相似。加沙战事中，美以两国提出的方案先要递交给身处卡塔尔的哈马斯领导层，再由他们以书面形式转交给加沙当地的领导人，这一过程耗时漫长，极易引发信息混乱。

A Russian tanker full of crude oil approached Cuba on Monday, and the Trump administration said it would allow the fuel delivery, after months of a de facto U.S. oil blockade that has helped plunge the energy-starved nation into a humanitarian crisis.

周一，一艘满载原油的俄罗斯油轮驶近古巴，特朗普政府表示将放行这批燃油交付。此前美国实施了长达数月的事实上的石油封锁，已让这个能源匮乏的国家陷入人道主义危机。

The tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil, was skirting the northern Cuban coastline and approaching its destination of Matanzas on Monday morning, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider.

船舶数据提供商MarineTraffic的数据显示，这艘载油量约73万桶的油轮于周一早晨沿着古巴北部海岸线航行，正驶向目的地马坦萨斯港。

The fuel shortage has crippled essential services, including Cuba’s health care system. The U.S. ban on foreign oil imports has been seen as a strategy by the Trump administration to bring Cuba’s government to its knees.

燃油短缺已导致古巴包括医疗系统在内的基础公共服务陷入严重瘫痪。美国对古巴的境外石油进口封禁被视为特朗普政府为迫使古巴政府屈服而采取的策略。

While significant, the oil aboard the Russian tanker would provide Cuba only a few weeks’ worth of fuel, experts said.

专家表示，尽管这批原油意义重大，但这艘俄罗斯油轮所载的石油仅能满足古巴几周的燃料需求。

本月哈瓦那发生的一次大停电。

What is driving Cuba’s energy crisis?

古巴能源危机的根源是什么？

Cuba largely relied on Venezuelan and Mexican oil, but shipments stopped in January after the United States captured Venezuela’s president and took control of its oil exports. The Trump administration also said it would impose tariffs on countries that tried providing fuel to Cuba, keeping Mexico from sending oil.

古巴此前的石油供应主要依赖委内瑞拉和墨西哥，但今年1月美国扣押委内瑞拉总统、掌控该国石油出口后，相关供油便宣告中断。特朗普政府还宣称，将对任何试图向古巴输送燃油的国家加征关税，这一举措使得墨西哥无法向古巴输送石油。

President Trump has said he believes he’ll “have the honor of taking Cuba,” and in negotiations with Cuban officials, his administration has signaled that Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, should resign.

特朗普总统曾表示，他相信自己将“有幸拿下古巴”。在与古巴官员的谈判中，特朗普政府已明确释放信号，要求古巴国家元首米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔辞职。

The Cuban government has condemned the Trump administration for trying to push Cuba toward economic collapse, and Mr. Díaz-Canel, the leader of a Communist regime that has ruled Cuba for more than 65 years, said “surrender is not an option.”

古巴政府谴责特朗普政府蓄意将古巴推向经济崩溃的边缘。执掌古巴超过65年的共产党政权领导人迪亚斯-卡内尔明确表态，“投降绝无可能”。

On Sunday night, after The New York Times reported the U.S. administration’s intention to let the oil shipment reach Cuba, Mr. Trump suggested it was a humanitarian gesture.

周日晚间，在《纽约时报》率先报道美国政府有意放行这批运抵古巴的石油后，特朗普称此举是一项人道主义举措。

“We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they need — they have to survive,” he told reporters. “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that. Whether it’s Russia or not.”

他对记者表示：“我们不介意有人运去一船石油，因为他们需要，他们得生存。如果有国家现在想给古巴送点石油，我都没有意见。不管是不是俄罗斯，”他告诉记者。

Asked on Monday if the administration would allow more tankers to reach Cuba, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said “these decisions are being made on a case-by-case basis right now.”

周一，当被问及政府是否会放行更多驶往古巴的油轮时，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，“目前这些决定都在根据具体情况逐案作出”。

On Monday, Dmitri S. Peskov, the spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, said the fuel shipment had been raised in advance with the United States.

周一，俄罗斯总统普京的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示，这批燃油运输事宜已提前与美方进行了沟通。

Russia, he added, has an obligation to “provide the necessary aid to our Cuban friends.”

他还说，俄罗斯有义务“向我们的古巴朋友提供必要的援助”。

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Mr. Peskov’s statement.

针对佩斯科夫的相关表态，白宫未立即回应记者的置评请求。

港口城市马坦萨斯，人们正在等候公交车。预计那艘俄罗斯油轮将抵达这里。

Why is the U.S. allowing this shipment?

美国为何放行此次运输？

It is unclear why the United States allowed a Russian shipment while countries like Mexico, which have been eager to help Cuba, have been prevented from sending tankers after Mr. Trump threatened tariffs.

目前尚不清楚为何美方会放行俄罗斯的这批运输，而墨西哥等迫切希望向古巴伸出援手的国家却遭特朗普以加征关税相威胁，被阻止派出油轮。

The shipment could signal that the United States did not want to make the Cuban people suffer even more, experts said. But they also said that the pressure campaign against Cuba has likely been sidelined by the war in Iran.

专家表示，此次放行或许表明美方不愿让古巴民众承受更多苦难。但他们同时指出，针对古巴的极限施压行动很可能已因伊朗战事被暂时搁置。

“Cuban society and infrastructure is so hampered right now that there is a real risk of a complete breakdown that would not be in anybody’s best interests,” said Pedro A. Freyre, the chair of international practice at Akerman, a law firm in Miami, and an expert on U.S.-Cuba policy. “That’s a bridge too far.”

迈阿密阿克曼律师事务所国际业务部负责人、美古政策专家佩德罗·弗雷尔表示：“古巴的社会运转与基础设施目前已严重失灵，存在彻底崩溃的切实风险，而这不符合任何人的最佳利益。这已经走得太远了。”

The Iran war, he added, had likely extended the timeline for the Trump administration’s plans on Cuba.

他还说，伊朗战事很可能拉长了特朗普政府对古巴行动的计划时间表。

“There is a palpable delay,” he said. “The process is stalled.”

“延迟是显而易见的，”他说。“整个进程已经陷入停滞。”

For some Cubans, the Russian fuel provided a rare bit of good news.

对部分古巴民众而言，这批来自俄罗斯的燃油带来了难得的一丝好消息。

“Hopefully the worst is over,” said Aldo Alvarez, who runs a delivery business in Cuba.

“希望最艰难的日子已经过去了，”在古巴经营配送生意的阿尔多·阿尔瓦雷斯说。

But other Cubans saw the planned oil arrival as a temporary patch potentially delaying the collapse of a regime they loathed.

另一些古巴民众则认为，计划中的石油抵港只是权宜之计，很可能会延缓他们所憎恶的这个政权的垮台。

“It provides more desperation to the people who just crave for a complete change here,” said Giovanny Fardales, a translator in Havana who has been waiting weeks to purchase gas for his car and diesel for his home generator. “Nobody wants more oil arriving, everybody wants this system to collapse, no more Communism, period.”

哈瓦那的翻译乔瓦尼·法达莱斯已经等了数周，想要为自己的汽车购买汽油、为家用发电机采购柴油。他说：“对于那些迫切希望这里发生彻底变革的人来说，这批石油只会让他们更加绝望。没人希望更多石油运进来，所有人都希望这个体制垮台，终结共产主义，就这样。”

本月哈瓦那发生停电时的情景。

Is the shipment going to make a difference?

这批石油能改变现状吗？

Roughly 40 percent of Cuba’s energy grid is sustained by power plants that largely run on crude oil that Cuba produces domestically. But Cuba relies on foreign fuel to power much of its economy, including factories and farms.

古巴约40%的电网由主要依靠本国自产原油的发电厂支撑。但该国经济的大部分环节，包括工厂与农场的运转，都依赖境外进口燃油。

The halt of oil shipments has caused food shortages, brought water pumps that operate on fuel to a halt, ratcheted up gasoline prices, forced hospitals to cancel surgeries and shut down lifesaving equipment like dialysis machines and incubators.

石油运输的中断已导致古巴出现食品短缺，燃油驱动的水泵全面停摆，汽油价格大幅飙升，医院被迫取消手术，透析机、婴儿保温箱等救命设备也被关闭。

The Russian fuel is “not a solution in the face of the extreme fuel shortage,” said Ricardo Torres, an economist at the American University in Washington who specializes in Cuba.

华盛顿美利坚大学专攻古巴问题的经济学家里卡多·托雷斯表示，面对古巴极端严峻的燃油短缺局面，这批来自俄罗斯的石油“并非解决之道”。

Mr. Trump said the oil shipment would not make much of a difference for Cuba in the long run.

特朗普则表示，从长远来看，这批石油运输不会给古巴带来多大改变。

“Cuba is finished,” he said. “They have a bad regime. They have very bad and corrupt leadership. And whether or not they get a boat of oil, it’s not going to matter.”

“古巴已经完了。”他说，“他们的政权糟糕透顶，领导层非常恶劣，而且腐败。无论能不能拿到一船石油，都不会有影响。”

A new Army weapon emerged from relative obscurity after one struck a sports hall and school in southern Iran early in the U.S.-Israeli war, according to weapons experts and a visual analysis by The New York Times.

据武器专家以及《纽约时报》所做的影像分析，在美以发动对伊朗战争的初期，一种此前鲜为人知的陆军武器在伊朗南部击中了一座体育馆和一所学校，由此进入公众视野。

Local officials cited in Iranian media said the strike and others nearby killed at least 21 people, including young girls playing volleyball.

伊朗媒体援引本国官员的话称，此次袭击及附近的其他袭击共造成至少21人死亡，其中包括一些正在打排球的年轻女孩。

That weapon is the Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM (pronounced like “prism”). The PrSM is barely out of the prototype phase, and the Army has not yet created an entry for it in the military’s supply system or given it an official nomenclature — much less disclosed details like its maximum range, its accuracy or the amount of explosives it carries.

这种武器是“精确打击导弹”（Precision Strike Missile，简称PrSM，发音类似“prism”）。这种导弹才刚刚走出原型阶段，陆军尚未在军事供应系统中为其建立条目，也没有为其指定官方代号——更不用说披露其最大射程、精度或所携带炸药量等细节了

Here is what we know about it.

以下是目前已知情况。

When was the Precision Strike Missile developed?

精确打击导弹是何时研发的？

The PrSM debuted just four months after the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019. It would have been banned under that treaty, which prohibited the United States and Russia from fielding ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles capable of ranges between 311 and 3,420 miles.

PrSM在2019年《中程核力量条约》失效后仅四个月首次亮相。根据该条约，美国和俄罗斯不得部署射程在500公里至5500公里之间的陆基弹道导弹和巡航导弹，而PrSM若在条约仍然有效时将属于被禁止之列。

The missile finished its prototype testing and entered low-rate production less than a year ago.

该导弹不到一年前完成了原型测试，并进入小批量生产阶段。

It will replace the Army’s ATACMS missile, which was developed in the 1980s and could strike targets about 190 miles away. The PrSM is expected to fly more than twice as far.

它将取代美国陆军的ATACMS导弹。后者研制于20世纪80年代，射程约为300公里。PrSM的预计射程将是ATACMS的两倍以上。

Who makes it?

谁是生产商？

Lockheed Martin makes the PrSM at a facility in Camden, Ark. According to a news release, the company has 115,000 square feet of factory space and 400 employees devoted to its production.

洛克希德·马丁公司在阿肯色州卡姆登的工厂制造PrSM。根据新闻通稿，该公司为其生产配备了1.6万平方米的厂房空间，以及400人的人员配置。

How many of them have been made?

目前已经生产了多少枚？

The exact number is not publicly known.

具体数字尚未公开。

On March 10, a spokeswoman for Lockheed referred questions about the number of PrSMs it has delivered to the Army. The Army declined to provide any data on its inventory or production rate.

3月10日，洛克希德·马丁公司的发言人将有关PrSM交付数量的问题转给了陆军方面。陆军则拒绝提供库存或生产速度数据。

How much has the Pentagon spent on them so far?

五角大楼迄今为止在该项目上花费了多少资金？

In September 2022, the Pentagon announced it was purchasing 54 of the new missiles for $77.4 million, or about $1.4 million each. In the 2023 fiscal year budget, the Army requested an additional $472 million to purchase 120 more of them.

2022年9月，五角大楼宣布以7740万美元的价格采购54枚新型导弹，折合每枚约140万美元。在2023财年预算中，陆军申请追加4.72亿美元再采购120枚。

Lockheed announced it had delivered the first operational Precision Strike Missiles to the Army in December 2023. Months later, the company received an additional $219 million from the Defense Department for the weapon.

洛克希德·马丁公司宣布，已于2023年12月向陆军交付了首批具备作战能力的精确打击导弹。数月后，该公司又从国防部获得了2.19亿美元的追加资金用于该武器。

And in March 2025, it was awarded $5 billion more.

2025年3月，它又获得了50亿美元的合同。

Where have they been tested?

这些导弹的测试地点在哪里？

A prototype of the Precision Strike Missile was first launched at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico in December 2019.

精确打击导弹的原型于2019年12月首次在新墨西哥州的白沙导弹靶场发射。


Since then, 12 additional test launches have been conducted in New Mexico and California. The most recent test was announced on March 12.

此后，在新墨西哥州和加利福尼亚州又进行了12次试射。最近一次测试的消息是在3月12日宣布的。

How are they launched?

这些导弹是如何发射的？


美军士兵正在将载有一枚ATACMS导弹的发射箱装上“海马斯”。PrSM的发射箱几乎相同，每个发射箱可以装载两枚导弹。

The missiles are packed in containers commonly called “pods” that each contain two PrSMs.

这些导弹装在通常被称为“发射箱”(pods)的容器中，每个发射箱可装载两枚PrSM导弹。

The Cold War-era M270 vehicle, which is based on the Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle and runs on tracks, can carry two pods at a time — for a total of four Precision Strike Missiles.

冷战时期的M270发射车在布雷德利步兵战车的基础上改进而来，采用履带行进，一次可携带两个发射箱，也就是共四枚“精确打击导弹”。

The newer M142 HIMARS, a lighter-weight six-wheeled truck, can carry just one pod at a time.

更新的M142海马斯则是一种更轻的六轮卡车发射平台，每次只能携带一个发射箱。

How have they been used in the war with Iran?

它们在伊朗战争中是如何使用的？

On Feb. 28, U.S. Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East, showcased some of the weapons used during the first 24 hours of the war with Iran — one of which was a PrSM being launched from a HIMARS vehicle in an apparently desert environment.

2月28日，负责指挥中东军事行动的美国中央司令部展示了在与伊朗开战头24小时内使用的部分武器，其中包括一枚在类似沙漠环境中由“海马斯”发射的PrSM导弹。


Central Command said the PrSMs were part of a barrage of munitions that were fired from outside the range of Iran’s defensive weapons.

中央司令部表示，这些PrSM导弹是从伊朗防御武器的射程之外发射的一批弹药之一。

Immediately after firing, the vehicles typically drive to another location to avoid potential enemy counterattacks and then reload.

发射后，这些战车通常会迅速转移至另一地点，以躲避敌方可能的反击，随后进行重新装填。

It is unclear where U.S. forces have launched PrSM missiles from during the war, although U.S.-made HIMARS vehicles have launched short-range ballistic missiles from Bahrain into Iran. And a HIMARS unit from the Wisconsin National Guard is currently deployed to Kuwait.

目前尚不清楚美军在此次战争中是从何处发射PrSM导弹，不过，美制“海马斯”此前曾从巴林向伊朗发射短程弹道导弹。此外，来自威斯康星州国民警卫队的一支“海马斯”部队目前部署在科威特。

一枚“海马斯”系统发射的PrSM导弹射向伊朗。

How important is this missile to the Pentagon?

这种导弹对五角大楼有多重要？


Based on the dollar amounts of contracts signed between the Defense Department and Lockheed, it appears to be very important to the Pentagon’s future war plans.

从国防部与洛克希德·马丁签署的合同金额来看，它显然在五角大楼未来的作战规划中占据重要地位。

On Wednesday, the Pentagon announced it had entered into an agreement with Lockheed to accelerate production of PrSMs “on a wartime footing.” The same day, the company said that agreement and the $5 billion contract that preceded it would allow Lockheed to “quadruple PrSM production capacity.”

周三，五角大楼宣布已与洛克希德·马丁公司达成协议，以“战时状态”加速PrSM的生产。同日，该公司表示，这项协议以及此前签订的50亿美元合同，将使洛克希德公司能够“将PrSM的产能增至原来的四倍”

Lockheed plans to develop four different PrSM “increments,” or variants, which the company has said will increase the missile’s maximum range and eventually give it the ability to hit moving objects, including ships at sea.

洛克希德·马丁公司计划开发四种不同的PrSM“增量型”，称这些改进将提升导弹的最大射程，并最终使其具备打击移动目标的能力，包括海上舰船。