A Chinese artist known for his provocative and irreverent sculptures of Mao Zedong is facing trial on suspicion of slandering the country’s heroes in a case underlining how little criticism is allowed under China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

一位中国艺术家因创作带有挑衅性和戏谑意味的毛泽东雕塑而面临审判，他被指控侵害英雄烈士名誉。这一案件凸显出，中国领导人习近平治下的批评空间何其有限。

The trial of Gao Zhen, 69, was set to begin Monday at the Sanhe City People’s Court in Hebei Province, according to his wife. Mr. Gao, who has been in detention for more than a year and a half, faces up to three years in prison if convicted. The trial will not be open to the public, a measure that under Chinese law is largely reserved for cases that touch on national security.

据其妻透露，现年69岁的高兟于周一在河北省三河市人民法院受审。高兟已被羁押超过一年半，如被定罪，最高可判处三年有期徒刑。此案将不公开审理——根据中国法律，这种措施主要适用于涉及国家安全的案件。

“Secret trials are usually a bad sign,” his brother, Gao Qiang, said. “The authorities may have already decided for the court what the outcome should be, and the trial is simply a politicized legal process, devoid of any fairness.”

“不公开审理通常不是好兆头，”他的弟弟高强说，“当局很可能已经为法院决定了结果，审判不过是场政治化的法律程序，毫无公正可言。”

The Gao brothers were part of a generation of avant-garde Chinese artists who rose to prominence in the early 2000s, a time of relative openness in China. The duo took on taboo topics like the 1966-76 decade of political turmoil known as the Cultural Revolution, as well as the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre. The space for free expression shrunk after Mr. Xi took power in 2012, and in 2022 Mr. Gao emigrated to the United States.

高氏兄弟属于21世纪初崛起的一代中国先锋艺术家群体，彼时中国社会相对开放。两人曾触及诸多禁忌题材，如1966年至1976年的“文化大革命”，以及1989年的天安门屠杀。自习近平2012年上台后，言论空间不断收紧，高兟于2022年移居美国。

When Gao Zhen and his family were visiting China in August, the police detained him at his studio on the outskirts of Beijing, seizing almost all the artwork stored there. During his detention, his wife and 7-year-old son, who is a U.S. citizen, have been barred from leaving China and from seeing or talking with Mr. Gao, though initially they were able to exchange letters. Mr. Gao has refused to confess or plead guilty, according to his wife, Zhao Yaliang.

去年8月，高兟携家人回国探亲期间，警方在北京郊外的工作室将其带走，并查扣了存放在那里的几乎所有艺术作品。高兟遭羁押期间，他的妻子和7岁的儿子（他是美国公民）被禁止离境，而且也无法探视或通话，尽管他们最初还能通过书信联系。据他的妻子赵雅良透露，高兟拒不供述，也不认罪。

赵雅良在北京家中展示丈夫高兟为她创作的作品，摄于去年10月。

She said that she hoped the authorities might release him based on time served. “But because this is China after all, we hope for the best but must prepare for the worst,” she said.

她表示，希望当局能看在他已经被关了这么久的份上，把他放了。“毕竟这是在中国，就是我们期待最好的结果，但是也要做最坏的打算，”她说。

As part of a campaign to enforce the ruling Communist Party’s version of history, China has made it illegal to tarnish the reputation of historical figures or to question official narratives. Journalists, stand-up comedians and regular citizens making comments online have been punished under the slander law, which was adopted in 2018.

作为维护中共官方历史叙事的行动之一，中国已将侵害历史人物声誉或质疑官方历史叙事定为违法行为。根据2018年通过的英烈保护法，已有记者、脱口秀演员以及在网上发表评论的普通民众因此受到惩处。

When it was amended in 2021 to allow prosecutors to seek criminal penalties of up to three years in prison, the government went so far as to publish a list of 10 “rumors” that are forbidden to discuss. They include whether Mao’s “Long March” was actually shorter than claimed, or whether his son was killed during the Korean War because he lit a stove to make fried rice, giving away his position, rather than because of intercepted radio transmissions.

该法律在2021年的一个修订版本允许检察机关寻求刑事处罚，最高可判处三年有期徒刑，政府甚至公布了一份包含10条“谣言”的清单，禁止公众讨论。其中包括：毛泽东的“长征”实际里程是否比宣称的要短，以及他的儿子是否是在朝鲜战争中因点火炒饭暴露位置而被炸死，而非因无线电通信被截获所致。

Now the law is being applied to work that Mr. Gao made more than 15 years ago, before it came into effect.

现在，这项法律被适用于高兟在至少15年前的创作，也就是该法律生效之前的作品。

According to Ms. Zhao, the prosecutors have named three sculptures made by Mr. Gao and his brother. They include a depiction of Mao with breasts and a Pinocchio nose. Another shows a group of Chairman Maos with guns, preparing to execute Jesus Christ. The third portrays the former leader, who was responsible for years of famine and upheaval, kneeling in repentance.

据赵雅良称，检方点名了高兟与其弟共同创作的三件雕塑作品。其中一件描绘了长着乳房和匹诺曹鼻子的毛泽东形象；另一件描绘了一群手持枪支的毛主席准备处决耶稣；第三件则刻画这位曾导致多年饥荒与动荡的前领导人跪地忏悔的场景。

People familiar with the case said Mr. Gao has been accused of disseminating images of the Mao sculptures online as recently as 2024, including on the cover of a biography of the former leader by a Chinese journalist who emigrated to the United States in the 1980s.

知情人士称，高兟被指控直至2024年仍在网上传播这些毛泽东雕塑的图像，包括用于一位上世纪80年代移居美国的中国记者所撰写的毛泽东传记封面。

高氏兄弟的《处决基督》，作品中耶稣面对一支以毛泽东形象塑造的行刑队，2009年摄于中国北京。

Ms. Zhao said that her husband has been punished in detention, including being deprived of food and barred from reading books or getting letters from his family. He suffers from lumbar spine disease, chronic hives and other medical conditions. Still, Mr. Gao has continued to make art from prison, tearing pieces of plain paper to make portraits of his family.

赵雅良表示，丈夫在羁押期间受到惩罚，包括被剥夺饮食、禁止阅读书籍及接收家属信件。高兟患有腰椎疾病、慢性荨麻疹等病症。尽管如此，他在狱中仍继续创作艺术，用信纸撕制家人肖像。

Shane Yi, a researcher at the nonprofit Chinese Human Rights Defenders, said the use of a “contrived, retroactively applied law” in a closed-door trial was evidence of “serious due process violations.”

非营利组织“中国人权捍卫者网络”的研究员肖恩·易（音）表示，在不公开审判中动用“牵强附会、具追溯效力的法律”，足以证明“存在严重违反正当程序的行为”。

Other rights activists have said that the Chinese authorities may want to make an example of Mr. Gao to silence others who have moved overseas.

还有人权活动人士称，中国当局可能希望借高兟案以儆效尤，震慑那些已经移居海外的人士，使其噤声。

Gao Qiang said he hoped the authorities would release his brother so that the family could return to their home in New York and “let art go back to being art.”

高强表示，他希望当局能释放他的哥哥，让一家人回到纽约的家中，“让艺术回到艺术”。

Attending an award ceremony in New York in 2024, Gao Zhen reflected on how little things had changed since he and his brother created those sculptures.

2024年，高兟在纽约出席一个颁奖典礼时谈到，自他与弟弟创作那些雕塑以来，中国的状况几乎没有什么变化。

“We all hoped for greater openness, but in reality, while China has achieved openness in many aspects — even surpassing the West in some areas — it hasn’t truly opened up its political system. Since the Cultural Revolution, it has regressed every decade.”

“我们都希望越来越开放，但事实上，在中国很多方面的开放都是有目共睹的，甚至某些方面的开放可能超过了西方，但唯有在政治体制这方面，我认为不仅没有开放，从文革之后又，每十年大倒退一步。”

As he prepares for a summit with President Trump, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has invited the chairwoman of Taiwan’s main opposition party for a rare visit aimed at countering Washington’s influence, and arms sales, through a show of good will toward the island.

中国领导人习近平在准备与特朗普总统举行峰会之际，邀请台湾主要在野党主席进行一次罕见访问，此举旨在通过对台展示善意，来抵消华盛顿的影响力及对台军售。

The invitation to the leader of the Nationalist Party, Cheng Li-wun, could help Mr. Xi bolster his argument to Mr. Trump that the United States should curtail weapons sales to Taiwan, the democratically governed island that China claims as its territory. Mr. Xi could also highlight Ms. Cheng’s visit next week to show that Beijing is willing to talk to some high-level Taiwanese politicians who accept its terms.

向国民党领导人郑丽文发出邀请或许有助于习近平在与特朗普的会谈中强化其主张，即美国应当减少对台武器销售。中国声称对台湾这个由民选政府治理的岛屿拥有主权。习近平还可以利用郑丽文下周的访问来表明，北京愿意与一些接受其条件的台湾高层政治人物进行对话。

“For China, her visit will help to send a clear message that there is still a sizable enough number of China doves inside Taiwan,” said Wen-ti Sung, an expert on Taiwan at the Global China Hub of The Atlantic Council.

大西洋理事会全球中国中心的台湾问题专家宋文笛表示：“对中国来说，她的访问将有助于传递一个明确信号，即台湾内部仍然存在相当数量的‘亲中鸽派’。”

Ahead of Mr. Xi’s summit with Mr. Trump, expected in mid-May, “it helps China to have that on camera for public diplomacy purposes — that there’s a Taiwanese leader of significant weight that seems to be able to get along with Beijing,” Mr. Sung said.

宋文笛称，在预计于5月中旬举行的习特会之前，“这有助于中国出于公共外交目的留下一位分量不轻的台湾领导人似乎能够与北京和睦相处的画面。”

Since winning an election to lead the Nationalist Party late last year, Ms. Cheng has argued that to ensure peace, Taiwan must build closer ties with China. She has said that she wants to visit China and meet Mr. Xi.

自去年底赢得国民党主席选举以来，郑丽文一直主张，为了确保和平，台湾必须与中国建立更紧密的联系。她曾表示希望访问中国并与习近平会面。

On Monday, Song Tao, the Chinese official in charge of Taiwan policy, said Mr. Xi had invited Ms. Cheng to promote “peaceful development” across the Taiwan Strait, the official Xinhua news agency reported. She would visit Jiangsu Province, Shanghai and Beijing, said the announcement, which did not specify if Mr. Xi would meet with her.

据官方新华社周一报道，负责台湾事务的中国官员宋涛表示，习近平已邀请郑丽文来访，以推动两岸关系“和平发展”。公告称，她将前往江苏、上海和北京参观访问，但未具体说明习近平是否会与她会面。

The Chinese Communist Party has strengthened ties with Ms. Cheng’s party while it seeks to isolate Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party, which is skeptical of Beijing and asserts that Taiwan is in effect independent.

中共在试图孤立台湾执政的民进党的同时，加强了与郑丽文所在政党的联系。民进党对北京持怀疑态度，并主张台湾事实上已经独立。

At a news conference in Taipei on Monday, Ms. Cheng said she had accepted the invitation. China often holds off from confirming official meetings until closer to the date.

周一在台北举行的新闻发布会上，郑丽文表示她已接受邀请。中国通常会等到临近日期时才确认正式会晤安排。

美国总统特朗普于去年10月在韩国釜山会晤中国国家主席习近平。

“We want to prove to the people of Taiwan and the entire world that conflict between the two sides of the strait is not inevitable,” she said. “Through our own wisdom and efforts, we can together forge a broad path of peace.”

她说：“我们要向台湾人民、也向全世界证明一件事情，两岸不是终局一战、两岸不需要兵凶战危，我们可以凭着自己的智慧跟努力共同走出一条和平的康庄大道。”

Asked about Ms. Cheng’s planned trip to China, Taiwan’s official Mainland Affairs Council warned: “If peace is built solely on the good will of Chinese Communist leaders, that will be the greatest danger for Taiwan.”

当被问及郑丽文的访中计划时，台湾官方机构陆委会警告称：“和平如果只是建立在中共领导人的善意上，将是台湾最大的风险。”

Ms. Cheng’s courtship of Beijing is also dividing her own party. Her critics argue that by leaning so close to China, she risks undermining the island’s relationship with the United States, on which it relies to counter Chinese military threats.

郑丽文向北京示好的做法也在党内引发分歧。批评者认为，她太靠近中国，可能会削弱台美关系，而台湾正是依赖这种关系来应对中国的军事威胁。

China does not rule out using force to absorb Taiwan, and has ramped up military pressure around the island in recent years and sought to erode American support for Taiwan. In a phone call with Mr. Trump in February, Mr. Xi warned him about continued sales of U.S. weapons to Taiwan, an indication that the issue will be on the agenda during the summit.

中国并未排除使用武力吞并台湾的可能性，且近年来不断加大对台军事压力，并试图削弱美国对台湾的支持。今年2月，习近平在与特朗普总统的通话中曾警告他不要继续向台军售，这表明该问题将成为即将举行的峰会议程之一。

China’s announcement coincided with a visit by a group of Republican and Democratic senators to Taiwan aimed at demonstrating U.S. commitment to the island. At least two of the senators openly urged Taiwanese lawmakers to pass President Lai Ching-te’s proposal for $40 billion of extra defense funds over eight years.

中国发布这一消息之际，一个由共和党和民主党参议员组成的代表团正在访台，旨在展示美国对该岛的承诺。至少有两名参议员公开敦促台湾立法机构通过赖清德总统提出的在八年时间里追加1.25万亿新台币（约合400亿美元）国防预算的提案。

“I’d like to personally endorse the special defense budget and tell you back in Washington, D.C., that my colleagues are watching, that this is important,” Senator John Curtis, a Republican from Utah, told reporters in Taipei.

来自犹他州的共和党参议员约翰·柯蒂斯在台北对记者表示：“我个人非常支持这项特别国防预算。我想告诉各位，在华盛顿，我的同事们都在关注此事，这件事非常重要。”

The Nationalist Party and a smaller opposition party hold a majority in Taiwan’s legislature, and they have held up President Lai’s proposal. Ms. Cheng and other Nationalist politicians have raised concerns about a backlog in deliveries of U.S. weapons for Taiwan and about potential corruption.

国民党与一个较小的在野党在台湾的立法机构拥有多数席位，他们一直阻挠赖清德的这项提案。郑丽文及其他国民党人士对美国对台武器交付积压问题以及可能存在的腐败表示担忧。

Some members of her own party say Ms. Cheng underestimates Mr. Xi’s determination to bring Taiwan to heel.

她所在党内的一些成员认为，郑丽文低估了习近平将台湾纳入掌控的决心。

For the Nationalist Party, the visit by Ms. Cheng would be “a high-risk gamble,” wrote Jason Hsu, a former lawmaker for the party who has been critical of Ms. Cheng. “It may strengthen its ‘peace’ narrative domestically, but it also risks reinforcing a damaging image: engaging Beijing while undermining defense readiness.”

曾任国民党立法委员、对郑丽文持批评态度的许毓仁写道，对国民党而言，郑丽文此行将是“一场高风险赌博”。“这或许会在国内强化其‘和平’叙事，但也可能加深一种负面形象，即在与北京交往的同时，削弱了国防整备。”

2023年，台湾军队在八里进行演练，模拟如何击退入侵部队。

After pressure from Washington, Ms. Cheng announced that the Nationalists would support an initial sum of about $12 billion for an arms package already approved by the Trump administration, and would support subsequent purchases of U.S. weapons. Critics say that her approach is still too incremental.

在华盛顿施压后，郑丽文宣布国民党将支持特朗普政府此前已批准的约120亿美元军售方案的首批资金，并将支持后续的美国武器采购。但批评者称，她的做法仍然过于渐进。

“The fact is that the threat from the People’s Republic of China continues to grow at one of the fastest paces in the whole world,” said Tony Hu, a former Pentagon official. “Taiwan also needs to stay on the right side in the mind of Trump, and the Nationalist Party doesn’t seem to appreciate the importance of that right now.”

曾任五角大楼官员的胡振东表示：“事实是，来自中华人民共和国的威胁正以全球最快的速度之一持续增长。台湾也需要在特朗普心中保持正确立场，而国民党似乎并未充分认识到这一点的重要性。”

Trump administration officials have ordered F.B.I. agents to gather documents about a decade-old investigation into a Democratic congressman and his ties to a suspected Chinese spy, according to people familiar with the matter.

据知情人士透露，特朗普政府官员已下令联邦调查局特工调取一份十余年前的调查案卷，该案卷涉及一名民主党众议员及其与一名涉嫌为中国间谍的女子的关联。

The effort has alarmed law enforcement officials who said they feared the material could be released publicly to smear the lawmaker, Representative Eric Swalwell, a prominent critic of President Trump who is now running for governor of California.

此举引发了执法部门官员的警惕。他们表示，担心这些材料可能被公之于众，用以抹黑这位议员——埃里克·斯沃韦尔。他是特朗普总统的知名批评者，目前正在竞选加利福尼亚州州长。

The investigation dates from more than a decade ago, when F.B.I. counterintelligence agents looked into a Chinese woman, Christine Fang, or Fang Fang, who assisted Mr. Swalwell with fund-raising. The F.B.I. concluded the investigation, and the Justice Department did not bring any criminal charges.

这项调查始于十多年前，当时联邦调查局反间谍特工对一名华裔女性克里斯汀·方（中文名方芳）展开调查，此人曾为斯沃韦尔的竞选募资提供协助。联邦调查局已完成该项调查，司法部也未对任何人提起刑事诉讼。

In recent days, scores of F.B.I. agents and other personnel in California were instructed to gather the documents on Mr. Swalwell and Ms. Fang, with the goal of working through the weekend to finish a review by early next week, the people said. Supervisors advised the agents to lightly redact the records to obscure some sensitive information and told them the files would be shared with senior administration officials in Washington.

知情人士称，加州数十名联邦调查局特工及其他工作人员近日，接到指令，要求调取关于斯沃韦尔与方芳的相关案卷，目标是周末完成梳理工作，下周初完成全部复核。主管人员告知特工，只需对案卷进行轻度涂黑，隐去部分敏感信息，并称这些文件将提交给华盛顿的政府高级官员。

The order from F.B.I. leadership has alarmed some career investigators, partly because the files are extensive and contain a significant amount of classified material and private information, the people said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss orders intended to remain secret.

知情人士表示，联邦调查局高层下达的这一指令已让部分职业调查人员感到不安，部分原因是这批案卷内容庞杂，包含大量涉密材料与私人信息。因所谈论的指令本属机密，这些知情人士要求匿名。

A Justice Department spokesman and the White House referred questions to the F.B.I. A bureau spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

司法部发言人与白宫均将相关问题转给了联邦调查局，该局发言人暂未回应记者的置评请求。

The F.B.I. and Justice Department do not normally release derogatory information collected during an investigation about people if the subjects were not charged with any crime. There are occasional exceptions to that practice, including when Congress passed a law last year forcing the release of millions of pages from F.B.I. files about the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

按照联邦调查局与司法部的常规操作，若调查对象未被提起任何刑事指控，调联邦调查局和司法部不会公布调查过程中收集到的对其不利的信息。这一惯例仅有极少数例外，比如去年国会通过一项法案，强制公开了联邦调查局案卷中数百万页关于已定罪性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的文件。

Some law enforcement personnel have expressed concern at what would remain unredacted and whether senior officials would misuse the material to score political points, perhaps by publicly releasing it, the people said. They added that the agency was expending significant resources on what appears to be a political errand.

知情人士称，一些执法人员对哪些内容将不作涂黑、予以保留表示担忧，并担心高层官员是否会滥用这些材料捞取政治资本，甚至可能将其公之于众。他们还补充称，该局正为这项看似政治差事的工作投入大量资源。

Ms. Fang left the United States for China in 2015, possibly because she had learned about the counterintelligence investigation into whether she was a spy. Mr. Swalwell has denied wrongdoing, and law enforcement officials have not presented any evidence that he knew of anything amiss about Ms. Fang.

方芳于2015年离开美国返回中国，原因可能是她获悉了这项针对她是否从事间谍活动的反间谍调查。斯沃韦尔始终否认存在任何不当行为，执法部门也从未拿出任何证据，证明他知晓方芳存在任何可疑行径。

In 2023, the House Ethics Committee ended a two-year investigation into the relationship between Mr. Swalwell and Ms. Fang without taking any further action.

2023年，众议院道德委员会结束了对斯沃韦尔与方芳关系的为期两年的调查，未采取任何进一步措施。

But Mr. Trump and his supporters have long pointed to the case to accuse the lawmaker of being a pawn of Chinese intelligence operatives.

但特朗普及其支持者长期以来一直拿这起案件说事，指责这位议员是中国情报机构的棋子。

“We now know the outrageous ends the White House will go to target political opponents,” Mr. Swalwell said in a statement on Saturday. “The reason Trump is so desperately trying to stop me is not because I’m running for governor of California, but because now I’m the favorite.”

斯沃韦尔在周六发布的声明中表示：“我们如今看清了，白宫为针对政治对手会做出何等离谱的事。特朗普如此不择手段想要阻止我，不是因为我在竞选加州州长，而是因为我现在是热门人选。”

“But Donald Trump and Kash Patel do not get to pick the next governor,” he added.

他还说：“但唐纳德·特朗普和卡什·帕特尔无权决定下一任州长的人选。”

斯沃韦尔（中）与其他加州州长候选人合影。

The Washington Post earlier reported on the F.B.I.’s orders to revisit the old case.

《华盛顿邮报》早前率先报道了联邦调查局重新梳理这起旧案调查的消息。

As a member of the House Judiciary Committee, which exercises oversight of the Justice Department and F.B.I., Mr. Swalwell has long clashed with the Trump administration.

作为众议院司法委员会成员（该委员会负责对司法部与联邦调查局行使监督权），斯沃韦尔长期以来与特朗普政府多有冲突。

In a hearing in September, Mr. Swalwell pressed Kash Patel, the bureau’s director, on why the F.B.I. had not released more documents on its investigation years ago into Mr. Epstein, a well-connected businessman who was indicted in 2019 on charges of trafficking underage girls for sex.

在今年9月的一场听证会上，斯沃韦尔就为何多年前未公开更多关于爱泼斯坦调查的文件向联邦调查局局长卡什·帕特尔提出质询。爱泼斯坦是一名人脉广泛的商人，2019年因涉嫌贩卖未成年少女从事性交易而被起诉。 

Mr. Patel yelled at Mr. Swalwell, denouncing his career as “a disgrace to the American people.”

帕特尔当场对斯沃韦尔大声斥责，称其职业生涯“是美国人民的耻辱”。

Mr. Swalwell has also earned Mr. Trump’s ire because of his vocal criticism of the president and his administration’s policies.

斯沃韦尔还因公开批评总统及其政府的政策而招致特朗普的愤怒。

He has often denounced Mr. Trump’s role in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, and is among several Democrats appointed by Democratic leadership to a Republican-led House subcommittee that was formed to revise the historical record of those events. The Democrats on the subcommittee intend to try to compel it to stick to an accurate version of the day’s violence.

他多次公开谴责特朗普在2021年1月6日国会山骚乱事件中所扮演的角色，同时也是民主党领导层指派进入共和党主导的众议院特别委员会的数名民主党人之一。该小组委员会的成立旨在修订关于这些事件的历史记录，而委员会中的民主党人则试图迫使委员会维持当天暴力事件的真实原貌。

“Donald Trump is on a war path to rewrite that history,” Mr. Swalwell said in September after joining the subcommittee. “He has pardoned the insurrectionists, vilified the cops who defended us, attacked those who investigated him and even forced the Smithsonian to whitewash the record.”

斯沃韦尔在9月加入该委员会后曾表示：“唐纳德·特朗普正不遗余力地篡改这段历史。他赦免了暴乱分子，诋毁了保卫我们的警察，攻击了调查他的人，甚至逼迫史密森尼学会粉饰相关记录。”

Mr. Swalwell first came into contact with Ms. Fang when he was a council member in the city of Dublin, Calif., before being elected to the House in 2012, according to an Axios article from 2020. Since her days as a university student in the Bay Area, Ms. Fang had developed ties to a wide range of American politicians, including at least two mayors in the Midwest. Her activities eventually drew the interest of counterintelligence agents at the F.B.I.

据新闻网站Axios 2020年的一篇报道，斯沃韦尔在2012年当选联邦众议员之前担任加州都柏林市市议员，在那期间与方芳有了初次接触。从她在湾区读大学时起，方芳就与众多美国政界人士建立了联系，其中至少包括两名中西部地区的市长。她的活动最终引起了联邦调查局反间谍特工的注意。

In 2015, agents gave Mr. Swalwell a briefing about their suspicions of Ms. Fang, who they believed was acting under the direction of China’s main spy agency, the Ministry of State Security. Mr. Swalwell in turn severed his ties to her. She left for China that year.

2015年，特工向斯沃韦尔通报了他们对方芳的怀疑，认为她是在中国主要情报机构国家安全部的指挥下行事。斯沃韦尔随即与她断绝了所有联系。同年，方芳返回中国。

Ms. Fang could not be reached for comment.

记者无法联系到方芳置评。

In 2024, Hu Xijin, the former editor in chief of Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party newspaper, posted online a photo of him and Ms. Fang having lunch. He wrote that she had gone to the United States in 2009 to study and “did a lot of work to promote personnel exchanges” between the two nations. Then in 2015, he wrote, the C.I.A. and F.B.I. approached her and tried to get her to work for them through coercion and bribery.

2024年，中共党报《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进在网上发布了一张自己与方芳共进午餐的照片。他写道，方芳2009年赴美留学，“为推动两国人员交流做了大量工作”。他还称，2015年，美国中央情报局和联邦调查局曾接触她，试图通过胁迫与贿赂让她为美方工作。

She fled the country three days after a “showdown” with the F.B.I., he said, and “in the end, her dreams were shattered.”

他表示，在与联邦调查局“摊牌”三天后，她逃离了美国，“最终，她的梦想破碎了”。

Thousands of demonstrations against the Trump administration unfolded across the country on Saturday, the third round in a nationwide series of loosely coordinated “No Kings” rallies.

周六，全美各地爆发了数千场针对特朗普政府的示威活动，这是一系列松散协调的“不要国王”集会的第三轮。

The day of protest, the first since October, came as the midterm election season takes shape, and as Democrats work to capitalize politically on the unpopular war with Iran.

这是自去年10月以来的首个抗议活动。与此同时，中期选举周期正在展开，民主党也试图在政治上利用这场不得人心的对伊朗战争。

Exactly a month earlier, President Trump ordered the first U.S. strikes against Iran, setting off a conflict that has sent gasoline prices soaring and rattled Republicans.

整整一个月前，特朗普总统下令发动美国对伊朗的首轮打击，由此引发的冲突导致油价飙升，并让共和党人感到不安。

The war was a central animating force in the Saturday rallies, which were attended by roughly eight million people, according to “No Kings” organizers, though their estimates in some cities were higher than those of local public safety officials. But the fighting in the Middle East was hardly the only issue on the minds of frustrated Democrats.

这场战争是周六集会的主要推动力。据“不要国王”示威活动的组织者称，约有800万人参加了集会，不过在一些城市，他们的估计数字高于当地公共安全官员的数据。但对沮丧的民主党人来说，中东的战事远非他们心中关切的唯一问题。

Here are five takeaways.

以下是关于这次示威活动的五个要点。

The war seemed to galvanize younger voters.

这场战争似乎激发了年轻选民的参与热情。

Many protesters said that the war had brought them out on Saturday. And at least in some places, the conflict appeared to be motivating younger people.

许多抗议者表示，这场战争是促使他们在周六走上街头的原因。至少在一些地方，这场冲突似乎正在激发年轻人的参与热情。

One large rally was held across the street from the University of Iowa, where the youth outreach group Voters of Tomorrow signed students up to join its organizing efforts.

在爱荷华大学街对面举行的一场大型集会上，青年动员组织“明日选民”在现场对学生进行登记，吸纳他们参与组织工作。

Katy Gates, 22, an organizer, said the crowd was “a lot younger, more diverse and more energetic” than those at previous “No Kings” demonstrations. She attributed the change, in part, to the war.

22岁的组织者凯蒂·盖茨表示，与此前的“不要国王”示威活动相比，这次的人群“明显更年轻、更多元，也更有活力”。她认为，这种变化在一定程度上源于这场战争。

“Our generation has grown up with this idea of endless war in the Middle East,” Ms. Gates said. “And the idea of getting into yet another is something that people are rightfully really angry about.”

“我们这一代是在‘中东无休止战争’的观念中长大的，”盖茨说，“再次卷入一场这样的战争自然会让人非常愤怒。”

Among those at the protest was Zach Wahls, 34, a state lawmaker running in Iowa’s competitive Democratic primary race for Senate. “I have not yet met somebody who is interested in another endless war in the Middle East,” he said.

参加抗议活动的还有34岁的州议员扎克·沃尔斯，他正在角逐爱荷华州竞争激烈的民主党参议员初选。“到目前为止，我还没遇到有人对再打一场中东的无休止战争感兴趣，”他说。

内布拉斯加州奥马哈一场抗议活动中的示威者。

Trump’s immigration crackdown remains a focus.

对特朗普移民打压政策的反对仍是焦点。

Even with the war in Iran dominating the national conversation, opposition to Mr. Trump’s immigration crackdown and Immigration and Customs Enforcement remained a rallying cry on Saturday.

尽管伊战主导了全国舆论，但反对特朗普移民打击行动以及反对ICE的呼声仍然是周六集会上的重要动员口号。

The sprawling, flagship “No Kings” protest was held in Minnesota, where two U.S. citizens were killed by federal agents this winter as part of unrest over the Trump administration’s immigration operation there. (The administration last month ended its surge of federal agents in Minnesota, responding to mounting public criticism.)

最具代表性的大规模“不要国王”抗议活动出现在明尼苏达州。在过去的这个冬天，当地因特朗普政府的移民执法行动引发骚乱，联邦执法人员在行动中造成两名美国公民死亡。上个月，面对日益高涨的公众批评，政府结束了在明尼苏达州增派联邦特工的行动。

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Senator Bernie Sanders, the progressive Vermont independent, spoke at the protest, which was held at the State Capitol building in St. Paul. Bruce Springsteen sang a song about the two citizens who died.

明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔兹和佛蒙特州进步派独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯在圣保罗的州议会大厦举行的抗议活动上发表讲话。布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀演唱了一首关于那两名遇难公民的歌曲。

“This is still America,” Mr. Springsteen said. “And this reactionary nightmare and these invasions of American cities will not stand.”

“这依然是美国，”斯普林斯汀说，“这种反动的噩梦以及对美国城市的入侵是不会得逞的。”

In Minnesota, there were also loud chants of “end this war” and plenty of signs objecting to the conflict.

在明尼苏达州，现场还响起“结束这场战争”的高呼声，许多标语也表达了对这场冲突的反对。

Dana R. Fisher, a professor at American University who studies civic engagement and surveyed protesters in Washington, said the share who described war and peace as their main motivator jumped drastically on Saturday compared with previous protests. But it was comparable to the share who cited concern about the administration’s handling of immigration, she said.

美利坚大学研究公民参与的教授达娜·费舍尔在华盛顿对抗议者进行了调查。她表示，与之前的抗议活动相比，周六将战争与和平列为主要动机的受访者比例大幅上升。但她表示，这一比例与担忧政府移民政策处理方式的受访者比例相当。

在佛罗里达州，抗议者聚集在距离特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园不远的地方。

Dueling protests unfolded near Mar-a-Lago.

在马阿拉歌庄园附近，出现了针锋相对的抗议活动。

Thousands of protesters gathered on a grassy public space by a Target about a 15-minute drive from Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach County, Fla., participants said. One demonstrator carried a sign that said “Grab ’em by the midterms,” playing on the vulgar, caught-on-tape comment Mr. Trump made about women in 2005.

参与者称，数千名抗议者聚集在佛罗里达州棕榈滩县一家塔吉特超市旁的公共绿地，这里距离特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园约15分钟车程。其中一名示威者举着写有“抓住他们的中期选举”(Grab ’em by the midterms)的标语，这个梗来源于特朗普2005年被人录下的一段粗俗言论。

The crowd included Emily Gregory, a Democrat and first-time candidate who won an upset victory this past week in a Florida state legislative race to represent the area.

人群中还包括民主党人、首次参选的候选人艾米丽·格雷戈里。她上周在佛罗里达州一场州议会选举中爆冷获胜，将代表该地区。

After prevailing in a district that Mr. Trump carried by 11 percentage points in 2024, she was greeted like a celebrity on Saturday.

她在周六受到明星般的欢迎，她赢下的是一个特朗普于2024年以11个百分点的优势拿下的选区。

“There were people that were asking us if that was really her,” said Lacy Larson, 47, an organizer.

“还有人问我们那真的是她吗，”47岁的组织者莱西·拉森说。

The rally’s atmosphere was mostly celebratory, and a D.J. played music by Mr. Springsteen, Bob Marley and Tracy Chapman. “Some fine protest jams,” Ms. Gregory said in an interview.

集会的气氛总体上是庆祝性的，一位DJ播放了斯普林斯汀、鲍勃·马利和特雷西·查普曼的歌。“都是一些很适合抗议的曲目，”格雷戈里在接受采访时说。

But counterprotesters gathered to stand up for the county’s most famous resident. They unfurled a large pro-Trump flag, and the two sides chanted at each other.

不过，也有反对这次示威的人聚集起来，声援该县最著名的居民。他们展开了一面巨大的挺特朗普旗帜，双方互相高喊口号。

The White House itself had mocked the nationwide protests. Abigail Jackson, a spokeswoman, said on Thursday that “the only people who care about these Trump derangement therapy sessions are the reporters who are paid to cover them.”

白宫方面则对全国性的抗议加以嘲讽。发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊周四表示：“真正关心这些‘特朗普焦虑症治疗会’的，就是那些拿了钱来报道它们的记者。”

Midterm candidates came out in force.

中期选举候选人纷纷亮相。

From sunny Southern California to the unseasonably frigid northern reaches of New England, Democratic candidates in the midterm elections took to the streets to vent with voters about the Trump administration.

从阳光明媚的南加州到反常寒冷的新英格兰北部，参加中期选举的民主党候选人纷纷走上街头，与选民一起表达对特朗普政府的不满。

Gov. Janet Mills of Maine, a Democrat who is running for Senate in one of this year’s most-watched races, attended three “No Kings” protests in and around Portland, the state’s largest city and a Democratic stronghold. Her Democratic rival, Graham Platner, an oyster farmer running as a political outsider, spoke at a protest in Aroostook County, the state’s northernmost county, where Mr. Trump won by 26 points in 2024.

缅因州州长、民主党人珍妮特·米尔斯正在竞选参议员席位，这是今年最受关注的选战之一。她在该州最大城市、民主党票仓波特兰及周边地区参加了三场“不要国王”抗议活动。她的民主党初选对手格雷厄姆·普拉特纳是一名牡蛎养殖户，以政治圈外人身份参选，他在该州最北部的阿鲁斯图克县的一场抗议活动中发表了讲话。2024年，特朗普在该县以26个百分点的优势获胜。

Ms. Mills and Mr. Platner are battling for the chance to take on Senator Susan Collins, a Republican seen as one of her party’s most vulnerable incumbents.

米尔斯与普拉特纳正争夺挑战共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯的资格。柯林斯被视为该党最可能失去席位的在任议员之一。

In Michigan, Mallory McMorrow, a state lawmaker who is in another closely watched Democratic primary for Senate, attended a rally in the Detroit suburbs. One of her leading rivals, Representative Haley Stevens, joined one in downtown Detroit.

在密歇根州，正在另一场备受关注的民主党参议员初选中角逐的州议员马洛里·麦克莫罗参加了底特律郊区的一场集会。她的主要竞争对手之一、联邦众议员海莉·史蒂文斯则参加了底特律市中心的集会。

And Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, who is seeking to fend off a Democratic primary challenge from Representative Seth Moulton, joined protests in Boston and its suburbs. Mr. Moulton attended a rally near Boston.

马萨诸塞州参议员埃德·马基也参加了波士顿及其郊区的抗议活动，他正在努力抵御来自联邦众议员塞思·莫尔顿的民主党内初选挑战。莫尔顿则出席了波士顿附近的一场集会。

Some Democrats seen as potential 2028 presidential contenders got in on the action, too. Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary and 2020 presidential candidate, attended a rally in Traverse City, Mich., where he lives. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who also ran in 2020, joined a protest in St. Louis. (He was in the city as part of a book tour.)

一些被视为2028年总统潜在人选的民主党人也参与其中。前交通部长、2020年总统候选人彼特·巴蒂吉格在其居住地密歇根州特拉弗斯城参加了集会。曾在2020年参加总统大选的联邦参议员、新泽西州的科里·布克则出现在圣路易斯的一场抗议中。（他正在当地进行新书巡回宣传。）

皇后区森林小丘的一场游行。

Democrats found fresh fuel for their ‘No Kings’ slogan.

民主党人为他们的“不要国王”口号找到了新着力点。

Two days before the protests, the Treasury Department said that it would begin printing dollars with Mr. Trump’s signature on them, a first for a sitting U.S. president.

抗议活动前两天，财政部宣布将开始印制带有特朗普签名的纸币，这在现任美国总统中尚属首次。

The move continued a trend for Mr. Trump, whose allies have sought to put his name on the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and the U.S. Institute of Peace, among other institutions and landmarks. The efforts have enraged many of his critics, who cast him as an aspiring monarch.

这一举动延续了特朗普的一贯做法：其盟友已试图将他的名字给肯尼迪表演艺术中心、美国和平研究所等机构和地标冠名。这些行为激怒了许多批评者，他们指责他企图成为君主。

In a nod to the protests, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, said on Saturday that she planned to introduce a bill to bar presidents from putting their name, likeness or signature on federal property or money.

作为对此次抗议活动的呼应，纽约州参议员、民主党参议院竞选委员会主席陆天娜(Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand)周六表示，她计划提出一项法案，禁止总统将自己的名字、肖像或签名用于联邦财产或货币。

“In America,” Ms. Gillibrand said in a statement, “we do not bow to kings.”

“在美国，”吉利布兰德在声明中说，“我们不向国王低头。”

The United States Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump administration, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter.

据一名知情美国官员透露，美国海岸警卫队将放行一艘满载原油的俄罗斯油轮驶入古巴。在特朗普政府实施了长达数月的实质性石油封锁后，这艘油轮将为这个岛国输送关键的能源补给。

The tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil and is owned by the Russian government, was within several miles of Cuban territorial waters on Sunday evening, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider. At its speed of 12 knots, the tanker could reach its expected destination of Matanzas, Cuba, by Monday night.

船舶数据提供商MarineTraffic的数据显示，这艘隶属于俄罗斯政府、载油量约73万桶的油轮已于周日晚间驶至距古巴领海仅数公里的海域。以12节的航速计算，该油轮预计将于周一晚间抵达预定目的地古巴马坦萨斯港。

The Russian ship’s arrival would shift the trajectory of a rapidly accelerating crisis in Cuba, buying the island nation at least a few weeks before its fuel reserves run out, analysts said.

分析人士表示，这艘俄罗斯油轮的抵港将改变古巴国内急速升级的危机走势，为这个岛国在燃油储备耗尽前争取到至少数周时间。

It would also reduce pressure on a Cuban government facing a looming economic collapse and escalating threats from Washington, and show that, at least for now, the island can still depend on its longtime ally, Russia.

此举也将缓解古巴政府面临的双重压力——迫在眉睫的经济崩盘风险及华盛顿不断升级的威胁。这也证明，至少在当下，这个岛国依然可以依靠其长期盟友俄罗斯。

The Trump administration had been enforcing what amounted to an oil blockade around Cuba since January, threatening nations that had been sending fuel to the country and, in one case, escorting a tanker heading toward Cuba away from the island.

自今年1月起，特朗普政府在古巴周边实施了实质上的石油封锁，不仅对所有向古巴输送燃油的国家发出威胁，还曾出动舰船将一艘驶往古巴的油轮驱离该岛。

The Coast Guard has two cutters in the region that could have attempted to intercept the Russian tanker. Yet the Trump administration did not order those vessels to act, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operations. Barring orders instructing it otherwise, the Coast Guard planned to let the tanker reach Cuba as of Sunday afternoon, the official said.

美国海岸警卫队在该海域部署有两艘巡逻舰，本可尝试拦截这艘俄罗斯油轮。但据一名因涉及机密行动而要求匿名的知情美国官员透露，特朗普政府并未向这些舰船下达行动指令。该官员称，截至周日下午，除非收到另行指令，否则海岸警卫队计划放行这艘油轮驶入古巴。

It was unclear why the White House did not issue orders to block the tanker or whether it would allow future Russian oil shipments to reach the island. The decision avoids a potential thorny confrontation with Russia just off the coast of Florida.

目前尚不清楚白宫为何未下达拦截这艘油轮的命令，也无法确定美方未来是否会放行俄罗斯向古巴输送石油的其他货运船只。这一决定避免了美国在佛罗里达州近海与俄罗斯爆发棘手的正面冲突。

The Coast Guard referred questions to the White House, which did not respond to a request for comment. Cuban officials also did not respond.

美国海岸警卫队将相关问题转交了白宫，而白宫并未回应记者的置评请求。古巴官方同样未作出回应。

The Russian Embassy in Mexico said in a statement that “the Russian Federation expresses its full solidarity with Cuba, considers all restrictions imposed against it to be illegitimate — including those related to the supply of energy resources — and is prepared to provide all necessary assistance, including material support.”

俄罗斯驻墨西哥大使馆发表声明称：“俄罗斯联邦对古巴表示全力声援，我们认为对古巴实施的所有限制措施均为非法，包括与能源供应相关的限制，同时俄方已准备好提供一切必要援助，包括物资支持。”

The U.S. oil blockade has been choking Cuba, leading to daily blackouts, severe gas shortages, soaring prices and deteriorating medical care. The policy has attracted international criticism, including from the United Nations, that the United States is causing a humanitarian crisis in Cuba. At the same time, White House officials have been threatening the Cuban government publicly, while pushing it privately to remove its president, Miguel Díaz-Canel.

美国的石油封锁已让古巴陷入窒息，国内出现每日停电、燃油严重短缺、物价飞涨、医疗体系持续恶化的局面。这项政策招致了包括联合国在内的国际社会的广泛批评，各方普遍认为美国正在古巴制造人道主义危机。与此同时，白宫官员一边公开对古巴政府发出威胁，一边在私下推动古巴罢免其总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔。

President Trump said this month that he believed he will “be having the honor of taking Cuba” and suggested that he could target the island with military force after the Iran war. “I built this great military,” he said at an investment conference on Friday. “I said, ‘You’ll never have to use it.’ ​But sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba is ​next, by the way.”

特朗普总统本月曾表示，他相信自己将“有幸拿下古巴”，还暗示在对伊朗的战争结束后，可能会对这个岛国动用军事力量。“我打造了这支伟大的军队，”他在上周五的一场投资会议上表示。“我曾说过，‘你们永远都用不着它’。但有时候，你不得不动用它。顺便说一句，下一个目标就是古巴。”

古巴前总统菲德尔·卡斯特罗和劳尔·卡斯特罗，以及现任总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔的照片，本月摄于哈瓦那。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the White House wanted new leaders in Cuba. “Cuba’s economy needs to change, and their economy can’t change unless their system of government changes,” he told reporters.

国务卿鲁比奥上周五表示，白宫希望古巴更换领导层。他对记者称：“古巴的经济必须改变，除非它的政治体制发生变革，否则经济根本不可能改变。”

Cuban officials have dug in, saying the nation is prepared to defend itself.

古巴官方立场强硬，明确表示该国已做好自卫准备。

“Our military is always prepared and, in fact, it is preparing these days for the possibility of military aggression,” Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, said on NBC’s Meet the Press last week. “We would be naïve if, looking at what’s happening around the world, we would not do that. But we truly hope that it doesn’t occur.”

古巴副外长卡洛斯·费尔南德斯·德科西奥上周在NBC的《与媒体见面》节目中表示：“我们的军队始终保持战备状态，事实上，近期正在针对可能发生的军事入侵做准备。看看当下全球发生的各种事件，如果我们不做这样的准备，那未免太过天真。但我们真心希望，这样的事情永远不会发生。”

The oil tanker now nearing Cuba may change the shape of tensions between the countries. Cuba was quickly running out of energy supplies, relying on solar power, domestic oil production and small fuel shipments to private Cuban businesses to prop up a failing energy grid. The crisis had led to small protests — a rarity in Cuba — and was raising questions of how the government would survive.

这艘即将抵近古巴的油轮或将改变美古两国间的紧张局势走向。此前古巴的能源储备已濒临耗尽，只能依靠太阳能、国内石油产量，以及面向古巴私营企业的小额燃油货运勉强支撑濒临崩溃的能源电网。这场能源危机已引发了小规模抗议活动——这在古巴极为罕见，同时也让外界质疑古巴政府能否维持运转。

But the Russian oil will ease that crisis, at least temporarily. The oil can be refined into various products, including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and fuel oil, which is used to power many Cuban power plants. That should help stabilize the energy grid, reduce blackouts, improve transportation and aid agricultural production, said Jorge Piñón, a former oil executive who studies Cuba’s energy system at the University of Texas.

但这批来自俄罗斯的原油至少能暂时缓解这场危机。这批原油可被提炼成多种成品油，包括柴油、汽油、航空煤油，以及古巴多家发电厂使用的燃料油。得克萨斯大学研究古巴能源体系的前石油行业高管豪尔赫·皮尼翁表示，这将有助于稳定古巴的能源电网、减少停电、改善交通状况，并为农业生产提供支持。

“It buys them time,” Mr. Piñón said. “But this is not a magic wand that all of a sudden, by the arrival of this tanker, all of their problems are solved.”

“这为他们争取了时间，”皮尼翁说。“但这不是魔法棒，不会因为这艘油轮的到来，就让他们所有的问题瞬间迎刃而解。”

Mr. Piñón said that the oil would take about three weeks to refine into other products and then another week to be distributed around the country.

皮尼翁表示，这批原油需要约三周时间提炼成各类成品油，之后还需一周时间才能分发至古巴全国各地。

Diesel he said, is the most critical product for Cuba, as it powers trucks, tractors and many power plants, and is in desperately short supply on the island. Some humanitarian aid has been trapped at warehouses because trucks don’t have diesel to distribute it, farms have been paralyzed with powerless tractors and some power plants have been shut down because of a lack of fuel.

他表示，柴油是古巴最关键的油品，卡车、拖拉机和多家发电厂都依赖柴油运转，而目前该岛国的柴油缺口已极为严峻。部分人道主义援助物资被困在仓库中，因为没有柴油驱动的卡车进行配送；农场因拖拉机无法运转陷入瘫痪；多家发电厂也因燃料短缺被迫关停。

上个月，哈瓦那湾的一座炼油厂。

Cuba has kept the lights on — albeit inconsistently — because 40 percent of its energy grid is supported by power plants that largely run on crude oil that Cuba produces domestically. Cuba has also been racing to install solar panels to prop up the grid. But Mr. Piñón said that 40 percent of the grid depends on smaller power plants that use diesel.

古巴之所以还能勉强维持供电——尽管极不稳定——是因为其40%的电网由主要依靠本国自产原油的发电厂支撑。古巴也一直在加紧安装太阳能电池板，以支撑电网运转。但皮尼翁指出，该国另有40%的电网依赖以柴油为燃料的小型发电厂。

He estimated that Cuba could use up the Russian oil in less than a month. But he expected the government to preserve some energy supplies for its strategic reserves and security forces.

他估算，这批来自俄罗斯的原油不到一个月就会消耗殆尽。但他预计，古巴政府会为战略储备和安全部队留存一部分能源供应。

“This is going to give diesel to the police, to the military units, to basically the whole apparatus of the Cuban government,” he said.

“这批油品将为古巴警方、军队单位，乃至古巴政府的整个国家机器提供柴油保障，”他说。

Henry C. Lee, a renowned forensic scientist who testified in numerous high-profile criminal cases, most notably the 1995 murder trial of the former football star O.J. Simpson, died on Friday at his home in Henderson, Nev. He was 87.

曾为无数轰动一时的刑事案件出庭作证、并因1995年前橄榄球明星辛普森杀妻案审判而闻名遐迩的著名刑事鉴识专家李昌钰，于周五在内华达州亨德森的家中去世，享年87岁。

His death, following a brief illness, was announced by his family and the University of New Haven in Connecticut, where he was a professor for more than 50 years.

他的家人及其任教超过50年的康涅狄格州纽黑文大学宣布了他的死讯，称其去世前曾短暂患病。

Dr. Lee served as a consultant to some 600 law enforcement agencies and testified more than 1,000 times in criminal and civil court in the United States and abroad, the university said. In 2000, The New York Times called him “perhaps the world’s most highly regarded forensic criminologist,” though his reputation was called into question later in his career.

校方表示，李昌钰博士曾为大约600家执法机构提供咨询，并在美国及海外的刑事和民事法庭出庭作证超过1000次。2000年，《纽约时报》称他“或许是世界上最受尊敬的鉴识犯罪学家”，不过在职业生涯后期，他的声誉也曾受到质疑。

Many of his cases were widely publicized, but none drew more attention than the Simpson case, which became a deliberation about race in America. Dr. Lee testified for the defense, saying that there was “something wrong” with the way the Los Angeles Police Department had handled the blood that was collected as evidence.

他参与的案件中，许多都广为人知，但最受关注的无疑是辛普森案，该案在很大程度上演变为一场关于美国种族问题的公共讨论。李昌钰在庭审中为辩方作证，称洛杉矶警察局处理收集到的血液证据的方式“存在问题”。

His testimony supported the defense team’s suggestion that the evidence could have been tampered with and that officers might have planted Mr. Simpson’s blood at the crime scene. Mr. Simpson was acquitted of the murder of Nicole Brown Simpson, his former wife, and her friend, Ronald L. Goldman.

他的证词支持了辩方的说法，即相关证据可能被篡改，警方也可能在案发现场栽赃辛普森的血迹。最终，辛普森被判无罪，未被认定谋杀前妻妮可·布朗·辛普森及其友人罗纳德·戈德曼的指控。

Dr. Lee served as a consultant on other cases that drew extensive public attention, including the 1996 killing of 6-year-old JonBenet Ramsey in Colorado and the 2007 murder trial of the record producer Phil Spector.

李昌钰还曾担任过其他多起引发社会广泛关注的案件顾问，包括1996年科罗拉多州六岁女童乔贝妮特·拉姆齐遇害案，以及2007年唱片制作人菲尔·斯派克特的杀人案审理。

But it was in 1986, when he identified a murdered woman based on the fragments of bone, teeth and fingernails he was able to find after her body had been put through a wood-chipping machine, that he began to make a name for himself. He helped to convict her husband in what became Connecticut’s first murder conviction without a corpse.

但真正让他声名鹊起的是1986年的一宗案件——当时一名女子的尸体被投入碎木机，他仅凭现场所能找到的骨骼、牙齿和指甲碎片确认了死者身份。他还协助定罪了这名女子的丈夫，这起案件成为康涅狄格州首例无尸定罪的杀人案。

Dr. Lee also once managed to have 11 miles of one of the nation’s busiest highways shut down overnight to recreate a shooting on the New Jersey Turnpike. His career, The Times wrote in 2000, “tipped the balance in favor of crime-fighting as science rather than art.”

李昌钰还曾让美国最繁忙的高速公路之一——新泽西收费公路在夜间封闭了约18公里，以便模拟一起枪击事件。《纽约时报》在2000年写道，他的职业生涯“推动了刑侦从一门技艺转向一门科学”。

He did not, however, hesitate to use theatricality in the courtroom when he considered it necessary. He dropped red ink from a fountain pen held at various heights and angles to show jurors how blood splatters could reveal the way a crime had been committed. He used ketchup and mustard as props to demonstrate how a sequence of multiple stabbings could be determined.

不过，只要他认为有必要，他并不避讳在法庭上运用戏剧化性手法。他曾拿着钢笔，从不同的高度和角度滴下红墨水，向陪审员演示血迹喷溅如何揭示犯罪过程。他还曾用番茄酱和芥末酱作为道具，演示如何判定多次捅刺的先后顺序。

1995年辛普森案审判中，李昌钰为辩方出庭作证。

He also used his dry wit on the witness stand. In 1991, he testified for the defense in a sexual assault trial that resulted in the acquittal of William Kennedy Smith, a nephew of former President John F. Kennedy.

在证人席上，他也时常展现冷幽默。1991年，他曾为前总统约翰·肯尼迪的侄子威廉·肯尼迪·史密斯的性侵案审判担任辩方证人，该案最终以被告无罪开释告终。

When asked by the prosecution why he had used a silk handkerchief to rub on the grass in front of the Kennedy compound in Palm Beach, Fla., to see if the grass would have left stains on the accuser’s panties, Dr. Lee replied, “Usually, I do not carry panties. I carry handkerchief.”

当控方问他为什么在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的肯尼迪庄园前用一块丝绸手帕摩擦草坪（以测试草地是否会在原告的内裤上留下污渍）时，李昌钰回答道：“一般情况下，我不会随身携带内裤，我带的是手帕。”

Henry Chang-yuh Lee was born on Nov. 22, 1938, in Rugao, China, northwest of Shanghai. His father, Homing Lee, and mother, Annfu Wang, were business owners. The family fled to Taiwan in the 1940s, during a period of conflict between the Nationalists and the Communists in China.

李昌钰1938年11月22日出生在上海西北方向的如皋。他的父亲李浩民和母亲王岸佛均为商人。20世纪40年代，正值国共冲突，他们举家迁往台湾。

While traveling separately to meet the family in Taiwan, his father was killed in a shipwreck, and his mother had to raise 13 children alone, Dr. Lee said in 2016, during an appearance at a Connecticut high school.

2016年，李昌钰在康涅狄格州一所高中发表的演讲中提到，当年全家分别前往台湾汇合，他的父亲在海难中丧生。母亲不得不独自抚养13个孩子。

Their once-affluent family was left with little money. As a child, he owned one pair of shoes, he said, and he took them off during his two-mile walk to school to keep them from wearing out.

这个曾经富裕的家庭从此家境拮据。他说，自己小时候只有一双鞋，在每天步行三公里上学时常把鞋脱下来拎在手里，以免把鞋磨坏。

His mother, who lived to be more than 100 years old, pushed him to succeed, spanking him when he didn’t do his homework. “Today, they would call it child abuse,” he said. “But I thank her for it.”

他的母亲活到了100多岁，一直督促他出人头地，如果他不写作业就会挨打。“放在今天，这会被称为虐待儿童，”他说。“但我对此心存感激。”

After finishing school, he enrolled at a police academy, one of the few opportunities available to him, and became a captain with the Taipei City Police Department. He married Margaret Song in 1962, and in 1965 they left for New York at the urging of his sister Sylvia Lee-Huang, a biochemistry professor at New York University.

完成学业后，他进入了警察学校——那是当时他为数不多的出路之一——后在台北市警察局任巡官。1962年，他与宋妙娟结婚；1965年，在姐姐、纽约大学生物化学教授李小枫的劝说下，两人前往纽约发展。

At the time, he knew four words of English, he told The Times in 2000, and worked as a waiter, groundskeeper, stock boy and martial arts instructor while attending the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in forensic science in 1972. He went on to earn a master’s degree in biochemistry in 1974 and a doctorate in 1975, both from New York University, before joining the University of New Haven, where he founded the forensic science program.

他在2000年接受《纽约时报》采访时说，当时自己只会四个英语单词，一边在约翰杰伊刑事司法学院求学，一边做服务员、园丁、理货员和武术教练。1972年，他在那里获得刑事鉴识科学学士学位，随后于1974年和1975年在纽约大学分别取得生物化学硕士和博士学位。之后他加入纽黑文大学，并创立了刑事鉴识专业。

From 1978 to 2000, Dr. Lee served as the chief criminalist for the State of Connecticut and the director of the state’s Police Forensic Science Laboratory. From 1998 to 2000, he also served as commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Public Safety and the Connecticut State Police.

从1978年到2000年，李昌钰担任康涅狄格州首席刑事专家兼州警政鉴识科学实验室主任。1998年至2000年间，他还担任了康涅狄格州公共安全部部长及州警察局局长。

Dr. Lee’s first wife died in 2017. He is survived by Xiaping Jiang, whom he married in 2018; two children, Sherry Hersey and Stanley Lee, from his first marriage; two stepsons, Yan Liu and Tianchen Liu; four grandchildren; and his sister Sylvia.

李昌钰的第一任妻子于2017年去世。他的遗属包括：2018年与他结为连理的蒋霞萍；第一段婚姻留下的两个孩子李孝美和李孝约；两名继子刘焱和刘天辰；四名孙辈；以及姐姐李小枫。

In the mid-1980s, in the so-called preppy murder case, Dr. Lee was hired by the team defending Robert E. Chambers Jr., who was accused of murdering Jennifer Levin in Central Park. Dr. Lee was never called to testify because he told Mr. Chambers’s lawyer, Jack Litman, that his client was “guilty as hell.” Mr. Chambers pleaded guilty to manslaughter in 1988.

上世纪80年代中期，在所谓的“预科生谋杀案”中，李昌钰受雇于罗伯特·钱伯斯的辩护团队，后者被控在中央公园谋杀了詹妮弗·莱文。然而，李昌钰从未被传唤出庭作证，因为他告诉钱伯斯的律师杰克·利特曼，他的当事人“简直罪大恶极”。1988年，钱伯斯对过失杀人罪表示认罪。

Later in life, Dr. Lee faced scrutiny himself, as his work on two cases and his reputation were challenged.

到了后期，李昌钰本人也面临严苛的审视，他在两起案件中的表现及其个人声誉都遭到了质疑。

In 2007, the judge in the murder trial of Mr. Spector ruled that Dr. Lee, a consultant for the defense, had removed something from the crime scene and hidden it from the prosecution.

2007年，在菲尔·斯佩克特谋杀案的审理中，法官裁定，作为辩方顾问的李昌钰曾从案发现场取走某样物品，并对检方隐瞒。

Prosecutors contended that it was a piece of fingernail that would have shown that the actress Lana Clarkson had resisted having a gun placed in her mouth before being shot at Mr. Spector’s California home. The defense claimed that she had shot herself.

检方称，那是一片指甲碎片，它可以证明将表明女演员拉娜·克拉克森在斯佩克特位于加州的住所被枪杀前，曾试图反抗对方将枪塞入自己口中。辩方则称她是自杀。

The judge did not hold Dr. Lee in contempt, and Dr. Lee denied taking anything from the crime scene. After the first trial ended in a hung jury, Mr. Spector was convicted of second-degree murder in 2009.

法官并未以藐视法庭罪追究李昌钰责任，李昌钰也否认从案发现场拿走过任何物品。在第一次审判因陪审团无法达成一致而未能做出裁决后，斯佩克特于2009年被判二级谋杀罪成立。

In 2023, Connecticut’s attorney general agreed to a $25 million settlement with two men who had spent three decades in jail after being convicted of murder. Those convictions, which were overturned in 2020, had been based in part on testimony by Dr. Lee regarding the supposed presence of blood on a towel. A federal judge ruled that Dr. Lee had fabricated the evidence, saying that there was no corroboration that he had conducted any blood tests on the towel.

2023年，康涅狄格州总检察长同意与两名男子达成2500万美元的和解，他们此前因谋杀罪被定罪并入狱30年。这些定罪于2020年被推翻，而当年的定罪部分依据是李昌钰关于一条毛巾上存在血迹的证词。联邦法官裁定李昌钰伪造了该证据，并表示没有任何证据能证明他曾对那块毛巾进行过任何血迹测试。

Dr. Lee defended himself in a statement, saying, “I have no motive nor reason to fabricate evidence.”

李昌钰在一份声明中为自己辩护道：“我没有任何动机，也没有理由去伪造证据。”

When President Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba acknowledged this month that his government was engaged in secret talks with the Trump administration, he revealed that the person guiding the negotiations was the “historical leader of the revolution.”

古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔本月承认政府正与特朗普政府进行秘密谈判，并透露主导谈判的是“革命历史领袖”。

That honorific is reserved for Raúl Castro, 94, who succeeded his brother Fidel Castro as Cuba’s president from 2008 to 2018, before retreating from the public eye to project an image of a civilian transition under Mr. Díaz-Canel.

这一尊称专指94岁的劳尔·卡斯特罗。他于2008年至2018年接替兄长菲德尔·卡斯特罗担任古巴国家元首，此后淡出公众视野，彰显迪亚斯-卡内尔领导下的平民权力交接。

But with Cuba on the brink of economic collapse from a U.S. oil blockade and gripped by a worsening humanitarian crisis, other members of the Castro family have emerged from the shadows.

但在美国石油封锁导致古巴经济濒临崩溃、人道主义危机持续恶化之际，卡斯特罗家族的其他成员纷纷从幕后走向台前。

One has spoken directly with Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state. Another is taking part in the negotiations with the Trump administration. Yet another is the public face of Cuba’s groundbreaking (and tantalizing) decision to allow Cuban exiles to invest in the island.

其中一人直接与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话，另一人参与对特朗普政府谈判，还有一人则成为古巴允许流亡者回国投资这一开创性且引人遐想的决定的公开代言人。

The family’s new profile reflects a dynasty that never really exited the political scene, but instead evolved.

该家族的新形象表明，这个政治王朝从未真正退出权力舞台，只是进行了演变。

Even as Trump officials increase pressure for sweeping economic changes in Cuba and press for the removal of Mr. Díaz-Canel, Raúl Castro’s handpicked successor as president, a family long vilified by U.S. leaders is positioning new generations of Castros as the nation’s ultimate power brokers.

尽管特朗普政府加大施压，要求古巴推行全面经济改革，并施压要求拉乌尔·卡斯特罗亲自挑选的总统继任者迪亚斯-卡内尔下台，但长期遭美国领导人诋毁的卡斯特罗家族正将新一代家族成员塑造为古巴最终的权力操盘手。

“This could produce an absurd case of de-Castrofication where the family creates an illusion of change when the real power in Cuba still resides with them and other members of the post-1959 elite,” said Andrés Pertierra, a historian of Cuba at the University of Wisconsin.

“这可能上演一出荒诞的‘去卡斯特罗’戏码：家族制造出变革假象，而古巴的实际权力仍掌握在他们与1959年后的革命精英手中，”威斯康星大学古巴史学者安德烈斯·佩尔蒂埃拉表示。

The Castros have shaped Cuba’s fortunes since 1959, when Fidel and Rául Castro, the sons of a wealthy sugar plantation owner, led the revolution that toppled an old order aligned with the United States. They moved Cuba into the Soviet orbit, turning the Caribbean island into a central player in the Cold War.

自1959年以来，卡斯特罗家族便塑造着古巴的命运。当年，出身富裕甘蔗种植园主家庭的菲德尔与劳尔·卡斯特罗兄弟领导革命，推翻亲美旧秩序，将古巴纳入苏联阵营，使这座加勒比岛国成为冷战中的重要角色。

Fidel Castro, who died in 2016, was the Cuban Revolution’s charismatic “Maximum Leader.” Raúl Castro long maintained a low profile, acting as the main liaison with Moscow and the revolution’s organizational architect, prioritizing bureaucracy, clear hierarchies and administrative efficiency.

2016年去世的菲德尔·卡斯特罗是古巴革命中极具个人魅力的“最高领袖”。劳尔·卡斯特罗长期低调行事，担任对莫斯科主要联络人与革命组织架构师，他重视官僚体系、清晰的层级制度与行政效率。

The Castro brothers faced many challenges to their rule, including C.I.A. assassination plots, a decades-long U.S. embargo and the collapse of the Soviet Union, once Cuba’s main benefactor. Venezuela had replaced the Soviets, becoming Cuba’s top oil supplier, until U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January.

卡斯特罗兄弟执政期间遭遇诸多挑战，包括中情局暗杀阴谋、长达数十年的美国禁运，以及曾是古巴主要援助方的苏联解体。委内瑞拉一度取代苏联成为古巴头号石油供应国，直至今年1月美军抓获尼古拉斯·马杜罗。

Now, with the U.S. ordering Venezuela to halt oil shipments to Cuba, the family faces what may be its greatest challenge: a fuel shortage that has Cuba’s economy teetering, raising questions about the survival of the island’s repressive Communist government.

如今，在美国下令委内瑞拉停止对古巴石油输送后，该家族面临或许最严峻的考验：燃油短缺令古巴经济岌岌可危，也让人对这个岛国上专制共产主义政府的生存能力产生质疑。

The U.S. fuel blockade is intended to produce a regime pliant to U.S. demands, similar to the way Venezuela shifted from adversary to client state with the removal of Mr. Maduro.

美国的石油封锁旨在催生一个顺从美方要求的政权，如同马杜罗倒台后委内瑞拉从对手转变为附庸国的模式。

Mr. Rubio, referring to Cuba, said this month that “the people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it, so they need to get new people in charge.”

鲁比奥本月谈及古巴时称：“掌权者不懂如何解决危机，所以需要换上新的人来掌权。”

Replacing the Castros, if that is what the United States desires, is a tall order.

若美国真的意图取代卡斯特罗家族，这一目标难度极大。

Raúl Castro, who is said to remain lucid and in relatively good health for a man his age, presides over the family. Since stepping down in 2018, his prestige and power remain rooted in his status as Cuba’s most powerful military figure. As defense minister under Fidel Castro, he oversaw the creation of GAESA, a sprawling military-run business conglomerate that is Cuba’s most important economic force.

据称，以其高龄而言，头脑依然清醒、身体状况相对良好的劳尔·卡斯特罗仍然掌管着这个家族。2018年卸任后，他的威望与权力仍植根于古巴军方最高领袖的身份。在菲德尔·卡斯特罗时期担任国防部长期间，他主导创立了古巴军方旗下庞大企业集团GAESA，它也是古巴最重要的经济力量。

Raúl’s children and grandchildren have more prominent official roles in today’s Cuba than Fidel’s descendants, one of whom is an Instagram celebrity known for flaunting a life of luxury in Havana.

在当今的古巴，劳尔子孙后代的官方职位比菲德尔的后代更为显赫，菲德尔的后人中有一位是Instagram上的网红，因在哈瓦那炫耀奢华生活而闻名。

前领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗，摄于今年1月。

One of Raúl Castro’s grandsons, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 41, has emerged as a new player in the crisis. Known as Raúlito, he is also called “El Cangrejo” — the Crab — a reference to being born with six fingers on one of his hands.

劳尔·卡斯特罗41岁的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗已成为此次危机中的新角色。他被称作“劳尔利托”，也有“螃蟹”的绰号，源于天生一只手有六根手指。

Mr. Rodriguez Castro has been part of his grandfather’s security detail, but these days mostly serves as his personal aide. He was once a fixture in Cuba’s elite social circles, hanging out with popular musicians such as the Charanga Habanera, who attended his 2008 wedding at an elite military club.

罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗曾是其祖父安保团队成员，如今主要担任祖父的私人助理。他曾是古巴精英社交圈常客，与哈瓦那查兰加乐队等古巴音乐人交往密切，该乐队曾出席他2008年在一家精英军事俱乐部举行的婚礼。

Now Raúlito also has a role as a messenger in the negotiations with the Trump administration, meeting with Mr. Rubio’s team at a recent event in St. Kitts and Nevis where Caribbean nations had convened.

如今，劳尔利托还担任对特朗普政府谈判的联络人，近期在加勒比国家召开的圣基茨和尼维斯会议上与鲁比奥团队会面。

Stunning those who had grown accustomed to his operating behind the scenes, Raúlito appeared this month on state television sitting alongside the regime’s highest-ranking members when Mr. Díaz-Canel disclosed the talks with Washington.

外界已经习惯了他在幕后行事，然而令人震惊的是，本月迪亚斯-卡内尔披露对美谈判消息时，劳尔利托出现在国家电视台画面中，与该政权最高层官员并肩而坐。

Raúl’s only son, Alejandro Castro Espín, 60, is also resurfacing after largely disappearing from public life when his father stepped down as president. An engineer educated and trained in Cuba and the Soviet Union, and a brigadier general in Cuba’s army, he has held leadership roles in Cuba’s intelligence apparatus and has written books critical of the United States such as “The Empire of Terror.”

劳尔·卡斯特罗60岁的独子亚历杭德罗·卡斯特罗·埃斯平在父亲卸任总统后基本淡出公众视野，如今也重新现身。他是在古巴与苏联接受教育和培训的工程师，拥有古巴陆军准将军衔，曾在古巴情报机构担任领导职务，并著有《恐怖帝国》(The Empire of Terror)等批评美国的书籍。

Now General Castro Espín is also taking a leading part in the talks with U.S. officials, according to news media reports.Such a role is not new for him; in 2014 he led Cuba’s side in secret talks with the Obama administration that produced a brief thaw in relations with the United States.

据媒体报道，卡斯特罗·埃斯平准将目前也在对美官员谈判中发挥着主导作用。这一角色对他而言并非首次：2014年，他曾率领古巴团队与奥巴马政府进行秘密谈判，促成美古关系短暂解冻。

2016年，亚历杭德罗·卡斯特罗·埃斯平在古巴圣斯皮里图斯省。

Another Castro family member suddenly rising in prominence is Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, 54, a soft-spoken engineer and grandnephew of Raúl and Fidel Castro. He is currently Cuba’s deputy prime minister and minister of foreign trade and foreign investment.

另一位突然崭露头角的卡斯特罗家族成员是54岁的奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加，他是一位言辞温和的工程师，也是劳尔与菲德尔·卡斯特罗的侄孙。他现任古巴副总理兼外贸与外国投资部长。

Mr. Pérez-Oliva leaped into the spotlight this month after announcing potentially one of the biggest policy shifts since the Castros seized power in 1959: allowing Cuban exiles to own businesses and invest in Cuba.

本月，佩雷斯-奥利瓦宣布了1959年卡斯特罗掌权以来最重大的政策转向之一：允许古巴流亡者在古巴拥有企业并进行投资，他由此一举成为焦点。

That showcased Mr. Pérez-Oliva as a public face of the regime’s survival strategy. It also ignited talk about whether he could be the Cuban version of Venezuela’s new Trump-friendly leader, Delcy Rodríguez, a younger insider more amenable to the United States who can speak the language of international business and yield to Washington’s demands.

这一举措凸显了佩雷斯-奥利瓦成为政权生存策略的公开代言人形象，也让人们开始议论他是否会成为古巴版的德尔西·罗德里格斯——后者是委内瑞拉亲特朗普的新任领导人，是一位更年轻、对美态度缓和、通晓国际商业语言、愿意顺从华盛顿要求的内部人士。

Those attributes, along with not having “Castro” in his name, could make him palatable to an administration in Washington that prizes regime compliance over regime collapse, some political analysts say.

部分政治分析人士认为，这些特质，加上他的姓氏中没有“卡斯特罗”，可能让他更易被华盛顿政府接受——华盛顿更看重政权的顺从，而非令政权垮台。

At the same time, his family ties could allow him to shore up political support among those within Cuba’s power structures who view the Castros as a source of stability and revolutionary legitimacy.

与此同时，佩雷斯-奥利瓦的家族纽带能帮助他在古巴权力结构内部争取支持，这些人将卡斯特罗家族视为稳定与革命合法性的来源。

2016年，载有菲德尔·卡斯特罗遗体的灵车行经哈瓦那市中心。

The involvement of so many Castros in the regime’s survival strategy underscores one of the Cuban Revolution’s contradictions: While its Communist leaders sought to create a classless, egalitarian society, many of them become members of an elite class.

如此多的卡斯特罗家族成员参与政权生存策略，凸显出古巴革命的一大矛盾：尽管其共产党领导人致力于建立一个无阶级的平等社会，但他们中许多人却成为精英阶层一员。

Still, the possibility of the family at the helm of Cuba’s authoritarian political system retaining its power would disillusion many Cuban exiles in the United States. Some have been pushing for decades for the Castros to be completely sidelined, along with erasing any Communist influence in Cuba.

即便如此，若这个掌控古巴威权政治体系的家族仍能保住权力，仍会让许多旅居美国的古巴流亡者感到理想破灭。数十年来，部分流亡者一直推动彻底清除卡斯特罗家族势力，抹去古巴境内一切共产主义影响。

The Castros are known as shrewd negotiators, extricating themselves from tough spots in the past, said Ricardo Zúniga, a former U.S. official who helped broker former President Barack Obama’s opening with Cuba and also served under President Trump.

曾协助促成奥巴马政府与古巴关系破冰、并在特朗普政府任职的前美国官员里卡多·苏尼加表示，卡斯特罗家族以精明的谈判者著称，过往多次从困境中脱身。

The Obama talks took 18 months, partly because the meetings were held in secret, mostly in Canada, and the negotiating teams were tiny.

奥巴马时期的谈判耗时18个月，部分原因是会谈秘密进行，主要在加拿大，且谈判团队规模极小。

Those expecting a Venezuela-style outcome in Cuba could also be surprised. Venezuela’s political elite, divided into camps with different economic objectives, was relatively fractious before the capture of Mr. Maduro, making it easier for Trump officials to settle on someone like Ms. Rodríguez, a technocrat who had already introduced market-oriented reforms aimed at improving Venezuela’s economy.

那些期待古巴出现委内瑞拉式结局的人可能会大为意外。在马杜罗被捕前，委内瑞拉政治精英分裂为不同经济目标的派系，内部分裂严重，令特朗普政府更容易选定罗德里格斯这样的技术官僚，她此前已推行了旨在改善委内瑞拉经济的市场导向改革。

奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加（中）于2024年在哈瓦那出席新闻发布会。

Cuba’s elite, in contrast, is far more cohesive after decades of purges and counterintelligence operations that detected even the smallest signs of dissent. Members of the Castro family have consistently benefited from this system.

相比之下，历经数十年清洗与反情报行动——这些行动连最微小的异见迹象都能察觉——古巴精英阶层凝聚力要强得多。卡斯特罗家族成员一直从这一体系中获益。

“There’s no opposition waiting on the wings and no one like Delcy,” Mr. Zúniga said. Even amid so many challenges, that crucial difference could strengthen the Castros’ hand as they explore ways to hold onto power.

“没有蓄势待发的反对派，也没有德尔西式的人物，”苏尼加表示。即便面临重重挑战，这一关键差异仍能增强卡斯特罗家族在寻求保住权力时的筹码。

“The elements are in place,” he said, “where you could imagine them trying to transition from a revolutionary oligarchy to a capitalist oligarchy.”

“条件已经具备，”他说，“你可以想象，他们正试图从革命寡头政治转向资本主义寡头政治。”

The videos and posts relentlessly mock President Trump or vilify him as a bloodthirsty leader who strikes civilian targets indiscriminately. They make up content about attacks on American and Israeli targets, including one on Wednesday that featured a fabricated video of a missile striking Liberty Island in New York Harbor. They regularly mention Jeffrey Epstein.

这些视频和帖子不断地嘲讽特朗普总统，或者将他丑化为一个不加区分地打击平民目标的嗜血领导人。他们伪造关于美国和以色列目标遭受攻击的内容，其中周三的一段虚假视频显示，一枚导弹击中了纽约港的自由岛。此外，这些帖子还经常提及杰弗里·爱泼斯坦。

Iran is waging what researchers have described as a sophisticated information war, aided by Russia and China, that is spreading content designed to exploit worldwide opposition to the U.S.-Israeli military campaign and deflect from the country’s considerable losses on the battlefield.

研究人员表示，伊朗正在俄罗斯和中国的协助下发动一场复杂的信息战争，通过传播相关内容，既借势全球对美以军事行动的反对情绪，又试图掩盖自己在战场上的重大损失。

Nearly a month into the war, Iran’s state media outlets and covert operatives are producing a steady torrent of propaganda, overstated narratives and outright disinformation. They are often wielding generative A.I. tools to create increasingly realistic-looking images and videos, according to human rights organizations and research groups studying foreign influence.

开战近一个月以来，伊朗的官媒和秘密行动人员正在持续输出大量宣传煽动、夸大叙事和彻头彻尾的虚假信息。根据研究外国影响力的人权组织和研究机构的说法，他们往往利用生成式人工智能工具来来制作看起来越来越逼真的图像和视频。

Much of the false content has been debunked, but not before reaching millions of people on X, Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and other social media platforms.

这些虚假内容中的大部分已经被揭穿，但往往在此之前，它们就已经在X、Bluesky、Facebook、Instagram、TikTok等社交媒体平台上传播，触达数百万人。

The information war, the researchers say, has given Iran’s beleaguered leadership a weapon almost as potent as its ability to disrupt the world’s energy economy by throttling shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. While the impact of the information war can be difficult to measure, experts said it appeared to have stoked popular anger and unease about the conflict in the United States and beyond.

研究人员表示，这场信息战为伊朗深陷困境的领导层提供了武器，其威力几乎等同于通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡石油运输来破坏世界能源经济。虽然信息战的影响难以量化，但专家表示，它似乎已经在美国乃至更广范围内激起了公众对这场冲突的愤怒和不安。

“They’re winning the propaganda war,” Darren L. Linvill, a director of Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub, said of the Iranians. “They were prepared for it more than the administration, because they’d been preparing for this entire conflict for 50 years.”

克莱姆森大学媒体取证中心主任达伦·林维尔谈到伊朗时表示：“他们在宣传战中占了上风。他们比美国政府准备得更充分，因为为了这场冲突，他们已经准备了50年。”

With the internet largely shut down inside Iran, the intended audience appears to be people outside the country.

由于伊朗国内的互联网基本处于切断状态，这些内容的目标受众显然是境外人群。

Many of the posts appear to come from accounts controlled by humans, rather than automated bots. Researchers at Clemson identified a furtive network of at least 62 accounts on X, Instagram and Bluesky that spread pro-Iranian content.

许多帖子似乎来自由真人控制的账户，而非自动化机器人。克莱姆森大学的研究人员在X、Instagram和Bluesky上识别出一个至少由62个账户组成的隐秘网络，专门传播亲伊朗的内容。

The accounts, controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, set up accounts purporting to be Spanish-speaking users in Texas, California, Venezuela and Chile and English speakers in England, Scotland and Ireland.

这些账户由伊斯兰革命卫队控制，伪装成来自得州、加州、委内瑞拉和智利的西班牙语用户，以及来自英格兰、苏格兰和爱尔兰的英语用户。

In some cases, the content they shared had been lifted verbatim from posts published by real people, including prominent Western influencers like Jackson Hinkle and Mario Nawfal, who each have millions of followers on X and are known for incendiary commentary on foreign affairs and conservative issues.

在一些情况下，它们发布的内容直接照搬了真实用户的帖子，包括一些知名的西方网红，如杰克逊·辛克尔和马里奥·纳法尔——两人都在X平台上拥有数百万粉丝，并以在外交事务和保守派议题上的煽动性评论而闻名。

Another campaign focused on a March 18 interview by Tucker Carlson with Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center who resigned in protest of the war, according to a report by Honest Reporting, a nonprofit advocacy group that critiques news reports it deems critical of Israel.

根据非营利倡议组织“诚实报道”（该机构专门批评其认为对以色列持批评立场的新闻报道）的一份报告，另一场宣传活动聚焦于3月18日塔克·卡尔森对前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特的采访。肯特因反对这场战争而辞职。

First, RT, the Russian television channel, posted a clip of the interview in which Mr. Kent portrayed the attack as unjustified aggression. From there, dozens of accounts spread the same clip almost simultaneously.

首先，今日俄罗斯电视台发布了该采访的一段剪辑片段，肯特在里面将这次袭击描述为毫无正当理由的侵略。随后，数十个账户几乎同时转发了这段视频。

“This was not simply organic virality,” the group said. It added, “Actors with varying ideological positions aligned almost immediately around a single, highly specific message: that Israel had manipulated the United States into war.”

该组织表示：“这绝非简单的自然火起来。”它还进一步指出：“意识形态立场不同的各类主体几乎在第一时间围绕一个高度具体的单一信息形成一致：即以色列操纵美国走向了战争。”

Iran has also seized on Mr. Trump’s erratic statements and taken advantage of the weakening of American government and corporate guardrails that once sought to counter false or misleading information.

伊朗还利用了特朗普反复无常的言论，并抓住美国政府和企业层面原本用于遏制虚假或误导性信息的防护机制有所削弱之机。

One video fabricated with A.I. and posted on Instagram by SSN TV, an Iranian state network, ridiculed Mr. Trump’s inability to persuade American allies to provide military help to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to oil tankers. The video includes fakes of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Kim Jong-un of North Korea laughing while listening to a rap song.

一段由人工智能生成、由伊朗国家媒体SSN TV在Instagram上发布的视频嘲讽特朗普总统无力说服美国盟友提供军事支持、以确保油轮正常穿行霍尔木兹海峡。视频中还出现了一个伪造的画面：俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩听着一首说唱歌曲纵情大笑。

“Trump’s inability to do alliance management or coalition building before this war sort of started the fire, and Iran’s disinformation campaigns are just pouring gasoline on that,” said Jonathan Ruhe, an analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, an advocacy organization based in Washington that supports strong ties between the United States and Israel.

总部位于华盛顿、主张加强美以关系的倡议组织美国国家安全犹太研究所的分析师乔纳森·鲁赫表示：“特朗普在战前未能进行有效的联盟协调或构建联合阵线，在某种程度上点燃了这场火，而伊朗的虚假信息行动则是在火上浇油。”

The American military has sought to debunk false claims, including another this week that falsely said Iran had downed an F/A-18 fighter jet. Social media platforms have also moved to take down some obviously fabricated videos.

美军已试图拆穿这些虚假指控，包括本周早些时候另一则宣称伊朗击落了一架F/A-18战斗机的假消息。社交媒体平台也行动起来，删除了一些明显伪造的视频。

Even so, more continue to circulate, including content that Mr. Trump and other American government accounts have posted using A.I.-generated content and misleading narratives.

即便如此，更多的虚假内容仍在传播，甚至包括特朗普及其他美国政府账号发布、利用人工智能生成内容以及具有误导性的叙述制作的帖子。

Russia and China, which have close relations with Iran and share a disdain for the unchecked use of American military power, have in turn sharply criticized Mr. Trump’s decision to attack. They amplified Iran’s propaganda and produced their own, according to the researchers.

与伊朗关系密切、同样反感美国不受约束地动用军事力量的俄罗斯和中国，也对特朗普发动攻击的决定提出了严厉批评。据研究人员称，中俄放大伊朗的宣传内容，同时也制作了自己的宣传内容。

Although neither country has openly provided direct military support to Iran, influence operations in both countries have worked at times in a seemingly coordinated fashion, according to Graphika, a company that analyzes content online.

尽管两国都未公开向伊朗提供直接军事支持，但据分析网络内容的Graphika公司称，两国的信息影响行动在某些时候呈现出似乎相互协调的态势。

Its researchers have documented numerous instances in recent weeks when Russian and Chinese state media or known covert influence operations amplified narratives that Iran has pushed — and vice versa. They have highlighted Iran’s ability to block the Strait of Hormuz and claims that the war was started to distract from the release of files related to Mr. Epstein and his crimes.

该公司的研究人员记录了近几周的诸多案例，显示俄罗斯和中国的官媒或已知的秘密影响力行动都在放大伊朗所推动的叙事，反之亦然。其中包括强调伊朗有能力封锁霍尔木兹海峡，以及宣称这场战争是为了转移公众对与爱泼斯坦及其罪行相关文件公布的关注。

Iran’s strategies have been extensively cataloged by social media watchdogs since the war began. Researchers at Graphika described a “travel chain of narratives” that spread from node to node: Iranian state TV airs a misleading broadcast, which is picked up by online influencers who then create A.I.-generated media that Chinese- and Russian-linked bot armies help give wide circulation.

自战争开始以来，多个社交媒体监管机构已对伊朗的相关策略进行了系统梳理。Graphika的研究人员描述了一种在节点间传播的“叙事传播链”：首先，伊朗国家电视台播出一段具有误导性的内容，随后被网红接力传播，他们进一步制作人工智能生成的媒体内容，最后由与中俄相关的机器人水军协助进行大规模传播。

The effort, the company said in a note to clients, “likely aims to normalize support for escalation, shifts blame onto external actors and bolsters the perception of Iran as a victim, justifying defensive or retaliatory stances.”

该公司在一份致客户的简报中表示，这一行动“可能旨在将支持冲突升级的行为合理化，将责任转嫁给外部行为体，并强化伊朗作为受害者的形象，从而为其防御或报复性立场提供依据。”

Cyabra, a social media monitoring company, found that Iran had activated hordes of phony social media accounts to push a message of Iranian dominance on the battlefield, earning 145 million views in the first two weeks of the war.

社交媒体监测公司Cyabra发现，伊朗动用了大量虚假社交媒体账号传播其在战场上占据主导地位的信息，并在战争的最初两周内获得了1.45亿次浏览。

TikTok accounted for 72 percent of those views. Accounts on TikTok with tens of thousands of followers shared A.I.-generated fakes, including dozens of videos of fake attacks on Israel. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

其中72%的浏览量来自TikTok。该平台上一些拥有数万粉丝的账号分享了由人工智能生成的虚假内容，其中包括数十段伪造的以色列遭袭视频。TikTok未回应置评请求。

Cyabra also found evidence that the efforts were the result of “clear coordination” and a “structured campaign” by Iran, citing as evidence the use of recurrent content and hashtags, alongside rapid bursts of posts that appeared online over short periods.

Cyabra还发现有证据表明，这些努力是伊朗“明确协调”和“有组织运动”的结果，其依据包括反复使用的内容与标签，以及在短时间内集中爆发式发布的帖子。

“These tactics allowed the network to rapidly flood the information environment and dominate online discussions during key moments of the conflict,” the company wrote.

该公司写道：“这些策略使该网络能够在冲突的关键时刻迅速淹没信息环境，并主导线上讨论。”

President Trump’s war with Iran is testing the limits of his unorthodox diplomatic style as he grasps for a deal to end the conflict shaking the Middle East and the global economy.

特朗普总统对伊朗的这场战争正在考验其非传统外交风格的极限，他正努力寻求达成一项协议，以结束这场撼动中东和全球经济的冲突。

As the war stretches longer than Mr. Trump seems to have anticipated, he appears to be casting about for a diplomatic offramp even as he threatens to escalate the conflict.

随着战争持续时间似乎超出了特朗普最初的预期，他似乎正在四处寻找外交出路，即使他同时也威胁要升级冲突。

In a social media post on Thursday, Mr. Trump seemed confounded by the challenge, calling Iranian officials “very different and ‘strange’” and claiming that they were “begging” for a deal while insisting that they “better get serious soon.”

在周四的一篇社交媒体帖子中，特朗普似乎对这一挑战颇为困惑，他称伊朗官员“非常不同且‘奇怪’”，并声称他们正在“乞求”达成协议，同时坚称他们“最好快点认真起来”。

It is unclear who in the Trump administration may be in charge of talking with a battered Tehran’s surviving leadership. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would join his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner in any negotiations. “They’re doing it, along with Marco, JD, we have a number of people doing it,” Mr. Trump said.

目前尚不清楚特朗普政府内部究竟由谁负责与遭受重创的德黑兰幸存领导层进行谈判。特朗普在周二表示，副总统JD·万斯、国务卿马可·鲁比奥将与美国中东事务特使史蒂夫·维特科夫以及他的女婿贾里德·库什纳一道参与谈判。“他们在做这件事，还有马可、JD，我们有不少人在处理这件事，”特朗普说。

Mr. Vance is a past opponent of U.S. intervention in the Middle East generally and Iran in particular. Mr. Rubio, by contrast, is an Iran hawk who has publicly defended Mr. Trump’s decision to attack the country.

万斯过去一直反对美国在中东进行干预，尤其反对干预伊朗。相比之下，鲁比奥则是伊朗问题上的鹰派人物，曾公开为特朗普攻击伊朗的决定辩护。

That jumble of emissaries — a friend, a family member, a dove and a hawk — reflects Mr. Trump’s improvisational approach to foreign dealings and his disdain for career diplomats and their often cumbersome protocols. The picture is further muddied by Mr. Trump’s stream-of-consciousness commentary on social media and before the TV cameras during which he declares, revises and sometimes reverses his threats and demands.

这样一支由朋友、家人、鸽派和鹰派拼凑起来的使团反映出特朗普处理外交事务的即兴风格，以及他对职业外交官及其繁琐程序的轻蔑态度。特朗普在社交媒体和电视镜头前意识流式的发言让局面变得更加扑朔迷离，他会在这些讲话中不断宣布、修改甚至推翻自己的威胁和要求。

The situation is testing the bravado many Trump officials expressed about their early foreign policy initiatives. “Turns out a lot of diplomacy boils down to a simple skill: don’t be an idiot,” Mr. Vance posted on social media last March, in praise of Mr. Witkoff.

当前的局势正在检验特朗普团队之前那种自信满满的外交姿态。“事实证明，很多外交归结为一项简单的技能：别当个白痴，”万斯去年3月在社交媒体上发帖，称赞维特科夫。

Iran has publicly rejected a 15-point cease-fire proposal circulated by the United States but is privately considering meeting with unspecified U.S. negotiators in Pakistan in the coming days.

伊朗已公开拒绝了美国提出的15点停火方案，但私下里正考虑在未来几天与未透露姓名的美国谈判代表在巴基斯坦会面。

Daniel Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel under President George W. Bush, rated Mr. Trump’s Iran diplomacy a failure, in part because the president seems unsure of his own goals. “Trump says he wants to de-escalate, but does he even know what that means?” Mr. Kurtzer added that the 15 demands Mr. Trump has submitted to Tehran “are nonstarters, because they would require Iran essentially to give up on everything.”

曾在乔治·W·布什政府担任美国驻以色列大使的丹尼尔·库尔策认为，特朗普在伊朗问题上的外交努力是失败的，部分原因在于总统本人似乎都不确定自己的目标。“特朗普说他想缓和局势，但他真的知道那意味着什么吗？”库尔策还表示，特朗普向德黑兰提出的15项要求“根本不可能成功，因为那实际上是要求伊朗放弃一切”。

Mr. Kurtzer also blamed Mr. Trump for sidelining career diplomats, cutting key policymaking jobs and largely placing his Middle East diplomacy into the hands of Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, who have backgrounds in real estate. That has left Mr. Trump without skilled teams of experts to help guide him out of the current crisis, Mr. Kurtzer said.

库尔策还将责任归咎于特朗普边缘化职业外交官、削减关键政策岗位，并将其中东外交大权基本交给了有房地产背景的维特科夫和库什纳。他表示，这让特朗普身边没有经验丰富的专家团队来帮助他摆脱当前的危机。

“If you’ve hollowed out the State Department and substantially reduced the size of the National Security Council and fired some of your top generals, and if so much of what you’re doing is about political loyalty, then maybe there isn’t that reservoir of expertise to draw on,” he said.

“如果你把国务院架空，大幅削减国家安全委员会的规模，还解雇了一些高级将领，而且你所做的很多事情都围绕政治忠诚，那么也许就没有那样的专业储备可供调用了，”他说。

Many foreign diplomats share the concern that America’s diplomatic machine is malfunctioning. “America has lost control of its own foreign policy,” the foreign minister of Oman, Badr Albusaidi, wrote in The Economist magazine last week.

许多外国外交官也有类似担忧，认为美国的外交机器正在失灵。阿曼外交大臣巴德尔·阿尔布赛义迪上周在《经济学人》撰文称：“美国已经失去了对自身外交政策的控制。”

Mr. Albusaidi suggested that Mr. Trump could not solve the problem on his own. “The question for friends of America is simple,” he said. “What can we do to extricate the superpower from this unwanted entanglement?” In a reflection of that sentiment, several nations including Oman, Egypt and Pakistan have sought to mediate new talks between Washington and Tehran.

阿尔布赛义迪暗示，特朗普无法独自解决这个问题。“对于美国的朋友们来说，问题很简单，”他说。“我们能做些什么，把这个超级大国从它不愿卷入的纠葛中解救出来？”在这种看法下，包括阿曼、埃及和巴基斯坦在内的几个国家一直在寻求斡旋，促成华盛顿与德黑兰重启谈判。

Mr. Albusaidi is one of many who have been questioning whether Mr. Trump missed an opportunity to avoid war when he sent Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner for last-ditch negotiations with Iran over its nuclear and missile programs. Critics charge that Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner were out of their depth and too quick to conclude that Tehran was not open to a deal.

阿尔布赛义迪是众多质疑特朗普是否错失了避免战争机会的人之一。特朗普派遣维特科夫和库什纳就伊朗核计划和导弹计划进行最后一轮谈判。批评者指责维特科夫和库什纳根本不胜任，且过于仓促地认定德黑兰无意达成协议。

从左至右：贾里德·库什纳、国务卿马可·鲁比奥、副总统JD·万斯和美国中东事务特使史蒂夫·维特科夫，他们都参与了与伊朗的谈判。

During an appearance on “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart on Monday, Jake Sullivan, who spent four years as President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s national security adviser, said Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had bungled a meeting in late February with Iranian officials in Geneva that Mr. Trump had cast as a last chance to avoid war.

曾在拜登总统任内担任国家安全顾问四年之久的杰克·沙利文周一在参加乔恩·斯图尔特的《每日秀》节目时表示，维特科夫和库什纳在2月底与伊朗官员在日内瓦举行的一次会面中处理失当，特朗普当时将该会谈视为避免战争的最后机会。

“Just a few days before we started bombing Iran, the Iranians put a proposal on the table in Geneva that went a long way towards resolving the nuclear issue,” Mr. Sullivan said. “And my understanding is that our side, our negotiators simply didn’t understand what they were being offered, and they ignored it, and decided to go ahead and strike.”

“就在我们开始轰炸伊朗的几天前，伊朗方面在日内瓦提出了一项提议，该提议在解决核问题上取得了很大进展，”沙利文说。“据我了解，我们这边的谈判代表根本没明白对方给出了什么条件，他们忽视了该提议，决定继续发动打击。”

Mr. Sullivan attributed that understanding to “a mismatch between that and what the mediators, Omani mediators, said was actually on the table.”

沙利文将这一判断归因于“我方理解与调解方阿曼方面所说的实际提议之间存在偏差”。

Trump officials strongly dispute that, saying Tehran refused to budge on basic U.S. demands, including that Iran agree to zero uranium enrichment on its soil.

特朗普政府官员强烈否认这一说法，称德黑兰对美国的基本要求拒绝让步，包括要求伊朗同意在其领土上实现零铀浓缩。

But Mr. Sullivan is hardly alone in raising concerns about Mr. Trump’s diplomatic acumen. In an interview last week with PBS’s “Firing Line,” Jim Mattis, who served as defense secretary for much of Mr. Trump’s first term, said the president had failed to use America’s nonmilitary power wisely.

但质疑特朗普外交能力的远不止沙利文一人。上周，在接受PBS《火线》节目采访时，曾在特朗普第一任期大部分时间担任国防部长的吉姆·马蒂斯表示，总统未能明智地运用美国的非军事力量。

“‘Targetry’ does not take the place of strategy,” Mr. Mattis said. “Right now, whether or not we have a strategy to actually use diplomacy, economics,” and the help of European allies whom Mr. Trump has alienated, “is still to be proven,” he added.

“‘定点打击’并不能取代战略，”马蒂斯说道。他还说，“目前，我们是否拥有实际去运用外交、经济手段的战略，”以及利用特朗普已经疏远的欧洲盟友的帮助，“仍有待证明。”

One particular quirk of Mr. Trump’s diplomatic approach is the minimalist role of his State Department and its leader, Mr. Rubio.

特朗普外交手法的一个特别怪异之处在于，国务院及其负责人鲁比奥扮演的角色微不足道。

Since taking on a second job last year as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, a demanding White House staff position, Mr. Rubio has visited foreign capitals far less often than his recent State Department predecessors. He has not been to the Middle East since a brief October stop in Israel. (Mr. Rubio canceled a planned return trip there this month when war broke out.) His last foreign trip was a one-day visit to St. Kitts and Nevis for a Caribbean security conference in late February.

自去年兼任特朗普国家安全顾问这一艰巨的白宫要职以来，鲁比奥访问外国首都的次数远少于过去几届前任。他自去年10月短暂访问以色列以来就再未去过中东。（战争爆发后，鲁比奥取消了本月重返那里的计划。）他最近一次出访是2月底前往圣基茨和尼维斯参加加勒比地区安全会议，为期一天。

Mr. Rubio has held numerous phone calls with officials in the Middle East and elsewhere since the war in Iran began, according to the State Department.

根据国务院的说法，自伊朗战争开始以来，鲁比奥已与中东和其他地区的官员进行了多次电话通话。

But during past Middle East crises, U.S. secretaries of state have typically raced across the region to build personal trust and glean insights in ways that veteran diplomats say requires in-person interaction.

但在过去的中东危机中，美国国务卿通常会奔赴该地区各地，通过面对面互动建立个人信任，获取有深度的见解，资深外交官认为这种互动是必要的。

Mr. Rubio typically visits the State Department “almost every day,” he told Politico in June, but added that he spends more time at the White House during times of conflict. He suggested in December that he had less need for travel because “we have a lot of leaders constantly coming here” to visit Mr. Trump at the White House.

鲁比奥今年6月告诉Politico，他通常“几乎每天”都会去国务院，但他补充说，在冲突时期他会有更多时间待在白宫。他在12月暗示，自己不太需要出访，因为“我们有很多领导人不断来这里”访问特朗普。

Mr. Rubio plans to attend a Friday gathering of Group of 7 foreign ministers in France, in what the State Department said would be a one-day trip.

鲁比奥计划参加周五在法国举行的七国集团外长会议，据国务院称，这将是一次为期一天的行程。

自去年兼任特朗普的国家安全顾问以来，鲁比奥出访外国首都的频率明显低于他在国务院的前任。

He has also said he is unbothered by the heavy diplomatic responsibilities Mr. Trump has assigned to Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, saying that they check in with him regularly.

他还表示，自己并不在意特朗普赋予威特科夫和库什纳的大量外交职责，并称他们会定期与他沟通。

But the war with Iran reveals the risk in what Aaron David Miller, who served as a Middle East negotiator under several presidents of both parties, calls Mr. Trump’s “huge break with convention and common sense.”

但与伊朗的战争暴露了艾伦·戴维·米勒所说的特朗普“与惯例和常识的巨大决裂”所带来的风险。米勒曾在两党多位总统手下担任中东谈判代表。

“That the secretary of state is playing a subordinate role and not managing the administration’s most serious foreign policy crisis attests to how dysfunctional the decision-making process is,” he added. “Because there’s no structure, it also allows Iran to try to pick and choose which U.S. officials they want to talk to.”

“国务卿在扮演一个从属角色，没有在处置政府最严重的外交政策危机，这说明了决策过程的紊乱，”他补充说。“因为没有结构，这也让伊朗能够挑选他们想要与之对话的美国官员。”

A Trump administration briefing on the talks, held for reporters soon after the war began, offered some fodder for those who question Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner’s role in crisis.

战争开始后不久，特朗普政府为记者举行的一次关于谈判的简报会为质疑威特科夫和库什纳在危机中所扮演角色的人提供了一些素材。

The two men were joined in Geneva by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, but no American technical experts.

这两人与国际原子能机构负责人、阿根廷外交官拉斐尔·格罗西一同参加了日内瓦会谈，但没有美国技术专家在场。

During the briefing, a senior Trump administration official said it was “surprising” that Iran had insisted in Geneva that it enjoyed an inalienable national right to enrich uranium that it would never surrender — even though Iran has declared that position for decades.

在简报会上，一位不愿具名的特朗普政府高级官员表示，伊朗在日内瓦坚持认为浓缩铀是不可剥夺的国家权利，永远不会放弃这一权利，这“令人惊讶”——尽管伊朗数十年来一直公开宣称这一立场。

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, also repeatedly misstated the abbreviation for Mr. Grossi’s agency, which has long played a crucial monitoring role within Iran, as the “I.E.A.E.” or “I.E.A.”

这位要求匿名的官员还多次说错格罗西所在机构的缩写，称这个长期在伊朗发挥关键监督作用的机构为“IEAE”或“IEA”。

But the official nonetheless expressed confidence in his own expertise. Referring to a document presented by the Iranian negotiators, the official said: “I went through it. I know enough about nuclear that I was able to absorb.”

但这位官员仍表示对自己的专业知识有信心。在谈到伊朗谈判代表提交的一份文件时，他说：“我看过了。我对核问题了解得足够多，能够理解。”

“It all smelled fishy,” the official concluded.

“这一切都很可疑，”这位官员最后说道。

That view was relayed to Mr. Trump, who launched his attack the next night.

这一看法被传达给特朗普，后者在次日晚发动了攻击。

The American economy is the envy of the world.

美国经济举世称羡。

Actual Americans, however, are not happy about their economy, and they’ve been unhappy about it for a long time.

但现实中的美国人却对他们的经济并不满意，而且这种不满已经持续了很长一段时间。

Both of those statements are true, and until recently, frankly, they stumped me. How could it possibly be rational to feel such prolonged pessimism in the face of such extraordinary economic growth?

这两种说法都没错。坦白说，直到最近，这都让我感到困惑。面对如此非凡的经济增长，为何会产生如此持久的悲观情绪，这怎么可能是理性的？

Over the last quarter-century, G.D.P. growth in the United States has far outpaced growth in Europe and Japan, two of our primary economic competitors (outside of India and China), to such an extent that many of Europe’s most powerful nations have economies only as prosperous as those of our poorest states. British and French living standards, as measured by disposable income, for example, are more comparable to that of Mississippi, still the poorest state, than to America’s as a whole.

过去25年间，美国的GDP增长远超（除印度和中国外的）主要经济竞争对手欧洲和日本，差距大到欧洲许多最强大国家的经济繁荣程度仅相当于美国最贫困的州。例如，以可支配收入衡量，相比美国整体水平，英国和法国的生活水平更接近仍然是美国最贫困州的密西西比州。

We hear about a shrinking middle class, but it’s shrinking because the ranks of the rich and the upper middle class are growing. According to an analysis by the economists Scott Winship and Stephen Rose, the core middle class (defined as households with incomes from 250 percent to under 500 percent of the poverty line) shrank from 35.5 percent of families in 1979 to 30.8 percent in 2024. That may not look like much at first glance, but that’s a 13 percent decline.

我们常听说中产阶级在萎缩，但这种萎缩是因为富裕阶层和中上阶层在扩大。根据经济学家斯科特·温希普和斯蒂芬·罗斯的分析，核心中产阶级（定义为家庭收入在贫困线的250%至500%之间）占全国家庭的比例从1979年的35.5%下降到2024年的30.8%。乍一看变化不大，但这是13%的降幅。

It’s not because Americans are getting poorer. They’re getting richer — much richer. The percentage of Americans who were poor or near-poor (less than 150 percent of the poverty line) plunged from 29.7 percent to 18.7 percent over the same time period. The percentage of lower-middle-class families (150 percent to under 250 percent of the poverty line) shrank as well — from 24.1 percent to 15.8 percent.

这并非因为美国人变穷了。他们变富了——远比之前更富有。在此期间，处于贫困或接近贫困（低于贫困线150%）的美国人口比例从29.7%骤降至18.7%。中下阶层家庭（贫困线150%至250%之间）的比例也从24.1%下降到15.8%。

During the same period, the share of upper-middle-class and rich Americans exploded. In 1979, 10.4 percent of families were upper middle class, with incomes from 500 percent to under 1,500 percent of the poverty line. By 2024, the percentage had almost tripled, to 31.1 percent, and the percentage of the rich (incomes of 1,500 percent of the poverty line and higher) went from a microscopic 0.3 percent to 3.7 percent, a more than tenfold increase.

同期，美国中上阶层和富裕阶层的比例急剧膨胀。1979年，有10.4%的家庭属于中上阶层，其收入在贫困线500%至1500%之间。到2024年，这一比例几乎翻了三倍，达到31.1%，而富裕阶层（收入在贫困线1500%及以上）的比例则从微不足道的0.3%增长到3.7%，增长了十倍以上。

To give you a sense for what those numbers mean, the income thresholds that divide the five classes for a family of three, for example, were $40,000, $67,000, $133,000 and $400,000 in 2024 dollars.

为了让你理解这些数字的含义，以三口之家为例，划分五个阶层的收入门槛在2024年的美元价值下分别是4万美元、6.7万美元、13.3万美元和40万美元。

The result is that immense numbers of Americans live lives that would look extraordinarily prosperous compared with previous generations. For all their justified complaints about housing affordability, Americans on average live in larger and more luxurious homes than Americans in generations past.

结果是，与前几代人相比，很大一部分美国人过着看起来异常富足的生活。尽管对住房可负担性有正当的抱怨，但平均而言，美国人住的房子比前几代美国人更大、更豪华。

Previous luxuries — things like central air, big-screen televisions, home computers and multiple cars — are now common staples of American life across most, although of course not all, of our social classes.

过去的奢侈品——如中央空调、大屏幕电视、家用电脑和多辆汽车——如今已成为美国大多数（当然不是全部）社会阶层生活的标配。

America is still the land of opportunity. We can still generate enormous amounts of wealth for tens of millions of people.

美国仍然是机遇之地。我们仍然能为数千万人创造巨大的财富。

I used to be the annoying person who’d respond to subjective economic malaise by spewing objective economic statistics — all with the goal of arguing that pessimism might be real, but that it’s irrational. After all, aren’t most people satisfied with their own economic conditions, even if they’re concerned about the economy writ large?

我过去曾是那个烦人的人，面对主观认为的经济萎靡，我会抛出客观的经济统计数据——所有这些都是为了论证，悲观情绪或许是真实的，但却是不理性的。毕竟，难道不是大多数人都满意自己的经济状况吗，即使他们担心整体的经济大局？

Also, isn’t most of this partisan anyway? Economic optimism and pessimism flip depending on who’s in office, with Republicans instantly more optimistic when Republicans win the White House, and Democrats behaving the exact same way when their party controls it.

此外，这不也大多是党派之见吗？经济乐观与悲观情绪会根据谁执政而翻转，共和党在赢得白宫时立刻变得更乐观，而民主党在自己的政党主政时也表现出完全一样的行为。

A closely divided country will never express broad-based economic optimism.

一个分裂为两个均势阵营的国家永远不会表达广泛的经济乐观情绪。

But then I read a piece that completely changed my perspective, and once my perspective changed, I saw a reality that I couldn’t unsee — we are miserable in part because we are wealthy.

但后来我读到一篇彻底改变我观点的文章，一旦我的观点改变，我就看到了一个无法忽视的现实——我们之所以痛苦，部分原因正是因为我们富有。

The piece, which appeared in the Times Opinion section last August, was by Daniel Currell, a management consultant, and it was about the economics of Disney World. It described a park once accessible to most Americans that has become extraordinarily expensive, charging fees that would crush the budgets of countless millions of American families.

这篇去年8月发表在《纽约时报》观点版的文章由管理顾问丹尼尔·柯瑞尔撰写，内容是关于迪士尼世界的经济学。文章描述了一个曾经对大多数美国人开放的公园如今变得极其昂贵，其收费足以压垮无数美国家庭的预算。

But it’s not just the base-line cost of attendance that has exploded. Disney offers various extra benefits (at extra cost) that create a multitiered experience. Think of the park as creating something like the boarding groups for airline flights. Life is just better if you’re in Group 1.

但暴涨的不仅仅是入园的基本费用。迪士尼还提供各种额外付费的特别福利，创造了一种多层次的体验。不妨把这个公园想象成航班的登机组。如果你在第一组，会舒服许多。

In one sense, the Disney story is understandable and lamentable, but it’s hardly alarming. Only a small fraction of Americans will go to Disney World in any given year, and if there are many more rich Americans, then it only makes economic sense to create benefits that cater to their tastes (and empty their wallets).

从某种意义上说，迪士尼的故事虽然可以理解且令人遗憾，但并不算触目惊心。在任何特定年份，只有一小部分美国人会去迪士尼世界，而且如果富裕的美国人大幅增加，那么从经济角度出发，迎合他们的品味（并掏空他们的钱包）来创造特别福利就顺理成章了。

But it’s not just Disney. The examples are all around us. This month, The Wall Street Journal published a fascinating article about the explosive costs of youth sports. The average family’s annual spending on baseball, for example, increased to $1,113 from $660 between 2019 and 2024.

但不仅仅是迪士尼。这样的例子在我们身边比比皆是。本月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇非常有意思的文章，讲述了青少年体育运动的爆炸性成本。例如，2019年至2024年间，美国家庭在棒球上的平均年支出从660美元增加到1113美元。

That’s partly because the nature of youth sports has changed. When I was young, we all owned a bat, a glove and a few balls. We signed up for Little League at a community table set up outside the entrance of the closest Walmart, and we joined teams with names like Tom’s Oil Change Tigers and Wayne’s Video Wildcats.

这部分是因为青少年体育的性质已经改变。在我小时候，我们都有球棒、手套和几个球。我们在最近的沃尔玛超市入口外设立的社区报名桌报名参加小联盟，加入那些名为“汤姆换油店老虎队”或“韦恩录像店野猫队”的球队。

And now? Travel sports have taken over, and travel sports are expensive. As The Journal reported, “Teenagers on travel teams are rolling into weekend tournaments wearing a few thousand dollars of apparel, equipment and swag.” Forget the local teams sponsored by local businesses. Now you often find yourself traveling regionally or maybe even nationally for teams called Alliance A or Alliance B, representing different branches of your chosen travel sports company.

现在呢？旅行体育已经占据主导，而旅行体育很昂贵。正如《华尔街日报》报道的：“随队外出比赛的青少年穿着价值几千美元的服装、装备和赠品涌入周末锦标赛。”忘记那些由本地企业赞助的本地队伍吧。现在，你常常发现自己要辗转于本地区甚至全美各地，为名为“A联盟”或“B联盟”的队伍打比赛，这些队伍代表着你选择的旅行体育公司的不同分支。

If you’re a sports fan, forget about going to see your favorite pro team unless you’ve got a lot of extra cash on hand. As my colleague at The Athletic Henry Bushnell reported in December:

如果你是个体育迷，除非手头有大量闲钱，否则就别想去现场看职业队比赛了。正如我的同事亨利·布什内尔去年12月在The Athletic上报道的那样：

The price of attending an N.F.L. or M.L.B. game rose, on average, by around 300 percent from 1991 to 2023, according to the Fan Cost Index. The average N.F.L. ticket now costs more than $300.

根据“球迷成本指数”，从1991年到2023年，观看一场职业橄榄球大联盟(NFL)或职业棒球大联盟(MLB)比赛的平均价格上涨了约300%。现在，一场NFL比赛的平均票价超过300美元。

The cheapest ticket to an average N.F.L. game is around $169, per an Athletic analysis earlier this season — more than every single standard English Premier League ticket except those in the most expensive tier for the most appealing games at Arsenal.

根据The Athletic本赛季早些时候的一项分析，一场普通NFL比赛的最便宜门票约为169美元——这超过了英超联赛除阿森纳俱乐部最受关注比赛最高票价之外的所有标准门票价格。

And what about flying? To purchase a plane ticket is to open a restaurant menu. You’ve got choice after choice of seating tiers. It’s not just First Class and Coach — boarded back to front — any longer. Nope. We’ve got First Class, Main Cabin Extra, Main and Basic Economy. We’ve got ConciergeKey boarding, preboarding and nine other boarding groups.

那坐飞机呢？购买机票就像打开餐厅菜单。你面临着一个又一个的座位等级选择。不再是只有头等舱和经济舱——以从后向前的顺序登机。不，我们现在有头等舱、舒适经济舱、经济舱和基础经济舱。我们有贵宾钥匙登机、预登机和另外九个登机组。

The result can be endlessly frustrating. We’re constantly reminded that America is a multitiered society in which a high income buys you a very visible degree of prosperity, and a decent income gives you nothing special at all. There are so many high-income Americans that the entire economy is warping to accommodate the minority at the expense of the majority.

结果可能是无尽的烦扰。我们不断被提醒，美国是一个多层次的社会，高收入能为你带来极其明显的富裕享受，而一份体面的收入则什么特殊待遇也带不来。高收入的美国人如此之多，以至于整个经济都在扭曲，牺牲多数人的利益以满足少数人。

In other words, we have a Group 1 economy for a Group 9 nation, and it’s no wonder that so many Americans feel economically disadvantaged and insecure.

换句话说，我们拥有的是一个为“第一组”设计的经济，但身处的是一个“第九组”的国家，难怪这么多美国人在经济上感到不利和不安全。

There is a statistic that backs up this perception. In February of last year, The Wall Street Journal reported that the top 10 percent of earners — households earning about $250,000 or more — now account for 49.7 percent of all spending. That’s a staggering percentage — a percentage that can tilt an entire economy toward the top.

有一个统计数据支持这种看法。去年2月，《华尔街日报》报道称，收入最高的10%群体（家庭年收入约25万美元或以上）现在占据了总消费的49.7%。这是一个惊人的比例——一个能让整个经济向顶层倾斜的比例。

Extend the analysis to the top 40 percent of earners and that percentage grows to more than 75 percent of all spending. That means that the poorest 60 percent of Americans account for less than a quarter of all spending. Put all this together, and it means that individually rational economic choices are driving the entire economy to cater to the wealthy. And if the top 10 percent are far and away the dominant spenders, that will mean that even members of the upper middle class will strain to feel secure.

将分析范围扩大到收入最高的40%人群，这个比例上升到总消费的75%以上。这意味着，最贫穷的60%美国人只占了总消费的不到四分之一。把这些汇总起来，就意味着个体的理性经济选择正在推动整个经济迎合富裕阶层。而且，如果收入最高的10%群体是占绝对主导地位的消费者，那将意味着即使是中上阶层的人也会感到维持体面生活的压力。

If you’re a car manufacturer, do you want to build low-margin entry-level cars? Or do you reap much greater rewards by selling the high-margin S.U.V.? If you’re a developer, luxury housing is typically much more profitable.

如果你是汽车制造商，你会想生产低利润的入门级汽车吗？还是通过销售高利润的SUV来获得大得多的回报？如果你是开发商，豪华住宅通常利润要高得多。

Yes, used cars can still be very nice cars, and there is evidence that building more high-end housing can lower prices by increasing overall supply, but middle-class America is used-car America. The shiny new thing? That’s for someone else.

是的，二手车仍然可以是很不错的车，而有证据表明，通过增加整体供应，建造更多高端住宅可以降低房价，但中产阶级的美国是二手车的美国。那闪闪发光的新玩意？那是给别人准备的。

The result can be a constant sense that you’re a second-class citizen. You check into hotels eyeing the shorter Gold check-in line. You ride in the rental shuttle past the Preferred kiosk, where the frequent travelers just grab their keys and go.

结果可能就是，你不断感觉自己是个二等公民。你在酒店前台登记时，会瞄着那条更短的黄金会员队列。你乘坐租车公司班车经过贵宾服务亭，那里的常旅客拿了钥匙就可以走。

Or, much more consequentially, you move to a new city and find that the wait to get established with a new doctor can stretch for months — unless you are able to pay the high monthly fee for concierge medicine. Then you can be seen right away, perhaps with a bonus offer of Botox for the middle-aged patient.

或者，更严重的是，你搬到一个新城市，发现要看新医生可能需要等上好几个月——除非你能支付高昂的月费享受“特约医疗”。那样你就能马上得到诊治，也许中年患者还能获得肉毒杆菌的优惠。

And what if you live in a city that the top 10 percent love? Well, then even being upper middle class doesn’t feel affluent at all. Six-figure salaries purchase shoe-box apartments, and everything from groceries to gas costs an absurd amount. Soon enough, you’re googling the real estate prices in Chattanooga or Des Moines — surely it’s cheaper there — whether or not you intend to ever leave.

如果你住在一个高收入10%群体钟爱的城市呢？那么，即使是中上阶层也根本感觉不到富裕。六位数的薪水只能买得起“鞋盒”公寓，从食品杂货到汽油，一切都贵得离谱。很快，你就会在谷歌上搜索查塔努加或得梅因的房价——心想那里肯定更便宜——无论你是否真的打算离开。

In this context, “affordability” doesn’t just refer to the cost of a specific good (or even necessarily the rate of inflation at any given time) but rather to the price of entry into what should feel like a normal American life — one that includes baseball games with the kids, a doctor on call, a home you like, and, at the very least, a basic sense that you haven’t been left behind.

在此背景下，“可负担性”不仅仅指特定商品的价格（甚至不一定指特定时期的通胀率），更是指获得那种本应感觉是正常美国生活所需支付的成本——这种生活包括与孩子一起看棒球赛、有随时可以看的医生、一个你喜欢的家，以及至少一种还没有被时代抛弃的整体感觉。

Wealth always tempts us to be discontent. We’re cursed with that insatiable desire for more. We’re prone to envy. There is a reason we talk about keeping up with the Joneses.

财富总是诱惑我们永不满足。我们被那永不餍足的欲望所诅咒。我们容易嫉妒。这就是为什么我们会谈论“与邻居攀比”。

But what if the Joneses inadvertently also make it hard to keep up? What if their sheer economic power changes our communities so much that we’re priced out of our doctors, our homes, our sports and many, many other things we need or want?

但如果“邻居”在无意中也让攀比变得困难呢？如果他们强大的经济实力改变了我们的社区，使我们无力支付医疗、住房、体育以及许多其他我们需求或想要的东西呢？

In this story, maybe the problem isn’t oligarchy. Elon Musk’s billions don’t tangibly change my life. But all the doctors, lawyers, engineers and accountants in my city do. They’ve bought the houses in the gated community. Their kids are playing travel ball. Because of all their money, the next restaurant is more likely to be a farm-to-table bistro than a Waffle House.

在这个故事里，问题也许不在于寡头统治。埃隆·马斯克的亿万财富并没有对我的生活造成直观的改变。但我所在城市的所有医生、律师、工程师和会计师有。他们买下了封闭式社区的房子。他们的孩子在打旅行体育比赛。因为他们手中的钱，新开的餐馆更可能是“从农场到餐桌”的小馆，而不是华夫饼屋。

No one is the clear villain in this story, and that’s one thing that makes the problem difficult to solve. We can’t target and defeat a specific set of bad actors who are immiserating America. Everyone is acting in rational self-interest. Why not be a lawyer or an engineer if you can? Why make less money selling food to kindergarten teachers when you can charge architects more? Why not pay for concierge services if they make your life easier? Why not be a concierge physician if the pay and lifestyle are better?

在这个故事里，没有谁是明确的坏人，这也正是问题难以解决的原因之一。我们无法找出并击溃一群特定的、正在使美国陷入困境的“坏人”。每个人都在按照理性的自利行事。如果可以，为什么不做律师或工程师呢？既然能向建筑师收取更高费用，为什么要向幼儿园老师卖食品赚更少的钱？如果贵宾服务能让你的生活更轻松，为什么不买呢？如果“特约医疗”医生待遇和生活方式更好，为什么不做呢？

It’s these choices, made millions of times by millions of Americans, that are both spurring our growth and — perversely enough — increasing our misery. We can’t have what we can’t afford, and we can’t have what we used to afford, and that combination can make even a middle-class American who may be well-off by historical standards feel very poor indeed.

正是这些被数百万美国人重复了数百万次的选择，既刺激了我们的经济增长，也——荒谬地——加剧了我们的痛苦。我们买不起我们得不到的，我们也买不起我们过去能负担的，这种组合甚至可以让一个按历史标准可能已相当富裕的美国中产阶级感到自己确实很穷。

Any Chinese parent or student fixated on education — so, basically, most Chinese parents and students — knew the name Zhang Xuefeng. As China’s most famous education influencer, Mr. Zhang was known for dispensing ruthlessly blunt advice about how to maximize a student’s chances at success.

任何一个执着于教育的中国家长或学生——也就是说，几乎所有中国家长和学生——都知道张雪峰这个名字。作为中国最知名的教育类网红，张雪峰以提供直白到近乎残酷的建议而闻名，教人如何最大化提升成功几率。

The liberal arts? Only good for service jobs, he declared. Finance? Don’t bother unless your family has connections. Fast-talking and sharp-tongued, to his detractors he was cynical and utilitarian. But to his tens of millions of fans, he embodied a rare willingness to acknowledge the harsh realities facing less privileged students, especially in the face of steep inequality and a slowing economy.

文科？他断言只适合从事服务业。金融？如果家里没有背景，最好别碰。他语速飞快、言辞犀利，在批评者眼中，他是功利主义的犬儒者；但在数以千万计的粉丝看来，他代表了一种难得的坦率，敢于直面寒门学生所面对的残酷现实，尤其是在贫富差距加剧、经济增速放缓的背景下。

So when Mr. Zhang suddenly died on Tuesday at age 41, of cardiac arrest, it prompted an outpouring — not only of shock, but also of reflection.

因此，当年仅41岁的张雪峰在周二因心脏骤停突然去世时，引发的不仅是震惊，更是广泛的反思。

On social media, people asked: Had he steered young Chinese to better lives or discouraged their idealism? What did his abrupt death, after he had long complained of being exhausted and overworked, say about China’s hypercompetitive work culture? And if life was so unpredictable, did planning so carefully — for success that seemed increasingly out of reach — even matter?

在社交媒体上，人们追问：他究竟是将中国年轻人引向了更好的生活，还是扼杀了他们的理想主义？在他长期抱怨疲惫与过劳之后的猝然离世，又折射出中国高度内卷的工作文化怎样的症结？如果生命如此无常，那么为着越来越遥不可及的成功而精心规划，究竟还有没有意义？

“Zhang Xuefeng’s lesson to lost young people: Enjoy your life,” was one of the top hashtags on Chinese social media on Wednesday, where news of Mr. Zhang’s death dominated discussion. “Excessive self-discipline” was another, a response to state media reports that Mr. Zhang had collapsed after going for a run in Suzhou, the city in eastern China where he lived.

周三，张雪峰去世的消息霸屏中国社交媒体，其中一个热门话题标签是“#张雪峰送给正在迷茫年轻人的一句话#：Enjoy your life”。另一个是“#过度自律#”，这源于官方媒体报道称，张雪峰是在他居住的苏州跑步后倒下的。

Another popular education influencer, Zhu Wei, posted a long tribute online, praising Mr. Zhang’s vigor and sincerity. Mr. Zhu urged his own students to slow down in their pursuit of test scores and jobs.

另一位知名的教育类博主朱伟在网上发表长文悼念，称赞张雪峰的活力与真诚，并呼吁自己的学生在追逐分数与工作的道路上放慢脚步。

“But I also know, what’s the cruelest thing about the age of internet traffic? It’s that nothing lasts even a month before it’s forgotten,” Mr. Zhu wrote. “Everyone will soon go back to their usual state, endlessly striving and slogging, never able to stop.”

“但我也知道，流量时代最残酷的是什么？是所有事情，不会超过一个月就会被遗忘，”朱伟写道。“大家又会回到自己的状态里，继续拼，继续熬，继续停不下来。”

Mr. Zhang was born in a small town in northern China. His real name was Zhang Zibiao, though he later adopted the name Xuefeng. He tested into a middling university, where he studied water supply and drainage, for which he had little enthusiasm, according to interviews he gave. After graduation, he turned to tutoring and college counseling.

张雪峰出生在中国北方的一个小镇。他本名张子彪，后来改为雪峰。据他在以往接受的采访中说，他考上了一所普通的大学，学习给排水专业，但对此并无太大兴趣。毕业后，他转而从事辅导和升学咨询工作。

He shot to fame in 2016, for a video in which he — in what would become his signature rapid-fire, snark-infused patter — summarized China’s top 34 universities in seven minutes. He started a consulting company where he helped students choose majors, internships and careers based on cold-eyed considerations of their test scores, family backgrounds and whether they prioritized money or stability. His livestreams attracted hundreds of thousands of views, and his courses could cost thousands of dollars.

他在2016年一举成名，当时一段视频中，他用后来标志性的高速、带点讽刺的讲述方式，在七分钟内概括了中国34所顶尖高校。他随后创办了一家咨询公司，根据学生的考分、家庭背景以及他们是更看重金钱还是稳定等因素，以冷静而现实的考量帮助学生选择专业、实习和职业方向。他的直播曾经吸引上十万人同时在线观看，课程收费甚至可达上万元。

His celebrity came as much from his advice as his willingness to provoke. A comment in 2023 that parents should knock their children unconscious rather than let them study journalism, because of the weak job prospects, set off days of online debate. Critics said he misunderstood the point of education, or was suggesting that poorer students shouldn’t follow their dreams.

他的名气不仅来自建议本身，也来自他语出惊人的风格。2023年，他曾表示，与其让孩子学新闻，不如把他们打晕，因为就业前景太差，这一言论引发了持续数日的网络论战。批评者认为他误解了教育的意义，甚至是在暗示家境不好的学生不应该追逐梦想。

“I come from an ordinary family,” Mr. Zhang wrote in response. “If you come from a wealthy family, you have more choices, you can’t choose wrongly. But most families aren’t that well-off, and when choosing a major, you have to choose one that’s suitable and will put food on the table.”

“我出身普通老百姓，”张雪峰在回应中写道。“如果家境优渥，选择更多，不存在错不错的问题。但是大多数家庭，条件没有那么好，选专业就要选适合自己的，能让自己吃上饭的。”

北京大学的学生。

For the most part, Mr. Zhang’s outsize persona fueled his popularity, and his business. The Paper, a Shanghai-based outlet, wrote in a profile of Mr. Zhang that the furor over his journalism remarks made his fans only more devoted: “The comment section is dominated by one voice: The poor need Zhang Xuefeng.”

总体来说，是张雪峰张扬的个性推动了他的走红，成就了他的事业。总部位于上海的澎湃新闻在一篇关于张雪峰的人物特稿中写道，他关于新闻学的言论引发的轩然大波反而让他的粉丝更加坚定：“评论区被一道声音占据——‘穷人需要张雪峰’。”

After another controversy, Mr. Zhang started selling a T-shirt that said “I was wrong, I apologize.”

在另一次风波之后，张雪峰甚至开始销售一款印有“我错了，我道歉”的T恤。

But he had recently landed in bigger trouble. In September, his social media accounts were blocked from posting or adding new followers, during a campaign by China’s cyberspace administration to erase what it called “excessively pessimistic” sentiment.

但他最近也陷入了更大的麻烦。去年9月，在中国网信部门开展的一项整治所谓“过度渲染消极悲观”情绪的行动中，他的多个社交媒体账号被禁言或禁止被关注。

Mr. Zhang was among a list of influencers targeted, according to China’s state broadcaster, which said that he was being punished for using “vulgar language for an extended period” during a livestream.

据中国官方的广播电视台报道，张雪峰是被整治的网红之一，称他在直播中“长时间使用污言秽语”。

But some observers speculated that his true offense was speaking bluntly about young people’s economic anxieties, at a time when the government has tried to hide high youth unemployment rates and accused young people of being too picky about jobs. (Others thought Mr. Zhang was being penalized for cheering on an invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese government, though it claims Taiwan, often censors what it deems overly hawkish sentiment.)

但一些观察人士猜测，他真正的错误在于直言不讳地谈论年轻人的经济焦虑——而政府当时正试图淡化青年失业率居高不下的问题，并指责年轻人对工作过于挑剔。（也有人认为他是因为曾为“收复台湾”言论叫好而受到处罚。中国政府虽然宣称台湾属于中国，但也常常对被认为过于激进的鹰派言论加以审查。）

Mr. Zhang recovered his accounts a month later and returned to streaming multiple times a week. The morning he died, he did a broadcast then went for a run, as was his habit.

一个月后，张雪峰的账号得以恢复，并重新开始每周多次直播。他去世那天早上还进行了一场直播，随后像往常一样去跑步。

His death was announced by his company in a post on social media. He is survived by his wife and a daughter, according to Chinese media.

他的公司通过社交媒体发布了他去世的消息。据中国媒体报道，他身后留下了妻子和一个女儿。

President Trump’s signature will appear on U.S. dollars later this year, the Treasury Department said on Thursday. The decision to have Mr. Trump’s John Hancock on America’s paper currency represented an unprecedented change, one that the department said was being made in honor of the United States’ 250th anniversary.

美国财政部周四宣布，特朗普总统的签名将于今年晚些时候出现在美元纸币上。让特朗普的亲笔签名登上美国纸币的决定代表着前所未有的变化，财政部称此举旨在纪念美国建国250周年。

As a result, Mr. Trump is set to become the first sitting U.S. president to have his signature on the greenback. His name will appear alongside that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. As a result, the U.S. treasurer, whose name has been on the currency for more than a century, will not appear on the currency.

由此，特朗普将成为首位在任期内将签名印在美钞上的美国总统。他的签名将与财政部长斯科特·贝森特并列。这也意味着，一个多世纪以来出现在纸币上的合众国司库签名将从此消失。

“There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S. dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the semiquincentennial,” Mr. Bessent said in a statement.

贝森特在一份声明中说：“在美元纸币上印上他的名字，是纪念我们伟大国家和唐纳德·J·特朗普总统历史性成就的最有力方式，在建国250周年之际发行此版纸币再合适不过。”

The addition of Mr. Trump’s signature to dollars is the latest example of the president emblazoning national institutions with his personal brand as he looks to permanently imprint his legacy in American society.

将特朗普签名加印到美元上是总统将国家机构打上其个人品牌烙印的最新例证，他正试图在美国社会永久留下自己的政治遗产。

Since retaking the White House last year, Mr. Trump has pushed for the minting of a one-dollar coin featuring his face along with the creation of a commemorative, 24-karat gold coin bearing Mr. Trump’s image. Mr. Trump also had his name added to the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington and his administration has pushed for Washington’s Dulles Airport to be renamed after him.

自去年重掌白宫以来，特朗普已推动铸造印有其肖像的一美元硬币，以及带有他形象的纪念性24K金币。特朗普还将其名字加在了华盛顿的约翰·F·肯尼迪表演艺术中心上，其政府也正推动将华盛顿杜勒斯机场改成他的名字。

The history of who gets to sign the money dates to 1861, when President Abraham Lincoln signed a bill allowing the Treasury secretary to delegate the treasurer of the United States to sign Treasury notes and bonds. According to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, 1914 was the first year that the Treasury secretary and the treasurer started signing the currency together.

谁可以把名字印在钞票上的问题可追溯至1861年，当时亚伯拉罕·林肯总统签署了一项法案，允许财政部长委托财政部司库签署票据和债券。根据雕刻印刷局记录，1914年是财政部长和司库开始共同签署货币的第一年。

During the Biden administration, there was a delay in adding Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen’s signature to the money because President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was slow to appoint a new treasurer.

在拜登执政期间，由于小约瑟夫·R·拜登总统迟迟未能任命司库，财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦的签名加印货币事宜也被推迟。

It is not clear if Mr. Trump’s signature will appear on all currency notes. The Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment.

目前尚不清楚特朗普的签名是否会出现在所有面额的纸币上。财政部没有回应置评请求。

Brandon Beach, Mr. Trump’s treasurer, expressed support for the president’s signature replacing his on the greenback.

特朗普任命的司库布兰登·比奇对总统的签名取代自己的签名印在美钞上表示支持。

“The president’s mark on history as the architect of America’s Golden Age economic revival is undeniable,” Mr. Beach said in a statement. “Printing his signature on the American currency is not only appropriate, but also well deserved.”

比奇在一份声明中表示：“总统作为美国‘黄金时代’经济复兴的设计师，其历史印记不可否认。将他的签名印在美国货币上不仅恰当，而且实至名归。”

European allies are increasingly concerned that Russia is preparing to deliver advanced drones to Iran for use in the war with the United States and Israel.

欧洲盟友日益担心，俄罗斯正准备向伊朗提供先进无人机，用于与美国和以色列的战争。

Russia and Iran grew closer during Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine. The Russians have used Iranian drones extensively in Ukraine, and the two countries have cooperated in dodging Western sanctions to sell oil abroad.

在俄罗斯持续入侵乌克兰期间，俄伊关系不断加深。俄军在乌克兰大量使用了伊朗制造的无人机，两国还合作规避西方制裁，向海外销售石油。

After the United States and Israel attacked Iran several weeks ago, Russia began passing satellite and other intelligence to Iran about American bases and other potential targets in the region, according to U.S. officials.

据美国官员称，在数周前美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，俄罗斯开始向伊朗提供有关美国在该地区军事基地及其他潜在打击目标的卫星情报及其他情报。

Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said Ukrainian intelligence had discovered that Russia had supplied Iran with drones and intelligence used in attacks against U.S. military facilities and neighboring countries in the Middle East during this war. In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on March 15, Mr. Zelensky said Moscow had transferred drones produced under Iranian licenses.

本月早些时候，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰情报机构发现，在此次战争中，俄罗斯向伊朗提供了用于袭击美国军事设施和中东邻国的无人机和情报。泽连斯基在3月15日接受CNN主持人法里德·扎卡里亚采访时表示，俄罗斯已移交了由伊朗授权生产的无人机。

A report in The Financial Times on Thursday seemed to support those statements, saying that Russia was “close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran,” according to Western intelligence reports.

《金融时报》周四的一篇报道似乎印证了这些说法，称根据西方情报报告，俄罗斯“接近完成分阶段向伊朗运送无人机、药品和食品的计划”。

Asked in Brussels about the reports on Thursday, Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, would not directly confirm if Russia is sending combat drones to Iran, saying that was a matter of intelligence “so we keep that secret.” But, Mr. Rutte said, officials have long noted “a close connection” between Iran, Russia, North Korea and China.

周四在布鲁塞尔被问及相关报道时，北约秘书长吕特未直接证实俄罗斯是否向伊朗提供作战无人机，称这属于情报事项，“我们对此予以保密”。但他表示，官员们长期以来注意到伊朗、俄罗斯、朝鲜与中国之间存在“密切联系”。

“So it tells you something when these reports come out that Russia is sharing so much, also with Iran,” he said. “So let’s not be naïve about it.”

他说：“这些报告一出来，本身就说明了问题——俄罗斯分享了如此多的东西，也包括跟伊朗分享。所以我们对此不要天真。”

In a social media post on Thursday, the British defense minister, John Healy, said “Russia and Iran have been working together — sharing tactics, training and tech.”

英国国防大臣约翰·希利周四在社交媒体上发帖称：“俄罗斯和伊朗一直在合作——共享战术、训练和技术。”

Two senior European officials, speaking anonymously given the diplomatic sensitivity of the topic, said their intelligence agencies believed that Russia was preparing to deliver drones to Iran for use in the war with the United States and Israel. They offered no details about prospective shipments or timing.

两位因话题的外交敏感性而要求不具名的欧洲高级官员表示，他们的情报机构认为，俄罗斯正准备向伊朗提供无人机，用于与美以的战争。但他们未提供计划中的运输细节或时间安排。

A third European official was not as definitive, saying there were “strong indications” that the Russians and Iranians had made such a deal. But that official did not know whether any drones had been delivered, or were in the process of being delivered.

第三名欧洲官员则没有那么确定，仅表示有“强烈迹象”表明俄伊双方已达成相关协议，但该官员并不清楚是否已有无人机交付，或正在交付过程中。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday appeared to downplay the possibility. When asked for his assessment of Moscow’s support for Iran in the war, he said: “I think Russia’s primarily concentrating on the war they have going on right now. Beyond that, I don’t have anything to add right now.”

美国国务卿鲁比奥周四似乎淡化了这种可能性。在被问及莫斯科在这场战争中对伊朗的支持时，他表示：“我认为俄罗斯目前主要专注于自己正在进行的战争。除此之外，我暂时没有更多可补充的。”

Iran’s arms factories, for both drones and ballistic missiles, have been prime targets for the huge U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign since the war began nearly a month ago. So presumably any Russian drones would help fill the gap.

自近一个月前战争爆发以来，伊朗的无人机和弹道导弹工厂一直是美以大规模轰炸行动的重点打击目标。因此，任何来自俄罗斯的无人机都可能会用来填补这一缺口。

Dmitry S. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, on Thursday denied that Russia was delivering drones and other arms to Iran for use in this war, telling reporters it was “false information.”

克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周四否认俄罗斯正在向伊朗运送无人机和其他武器用于此次战争，并告诉记者这是“虚假信息”。

Mr. Peskov had also denied an earlier report this month in The Wall Street Journal that Russia had already supplied Iran with modernized components for its drones meant to improve communication, navigation and targeting.

佩斯科夫此前还否认了本月早些时候《华尔街日报》的一篇报道，该报道称俄罗斯向伊朗提供了无人机现代化部件，以改善其通信、导航和目标定位能力。

Russia has previously said it had transferred medical supplies and food to Iran overland through Azerbaijan and will continue to do so.

俄罗斯此前曾表示，已通过阿塞拜疆向伊朗陆路运送了医疗物资和食品，并将继续这样做。

Earlier this month, President Trump downplayed reports that Russia was providing Iran with intelligence to target American troops. “If you take a look at what’s happened to Iran in the last week, if they’re getting information, it’s not helping them much,” he told reporters.

本月早些时候，特朗普总统也淡化了有关俄罗斯向伊朗提供情报以协助其打击美军的报道。“如果你看看伊朗过去一周的情况，就算他们拿到了情报，看起来也没什么用，”他对记者表示。

Russian military support for Iran is an awkward issue for Mr. Trump, who has often sided with Russia over Ukraine and has been reluctant to put more pressure on Moscow.

俄罗斯对伊朗的军事支持对特朗普来说是一个棘手问题——他在乌克兰问题上多次站在俄罗斯一边，并且一直不愿对莫斯科施加更多压力。

Even more awkward, the Iran war has caused oil prices to spike, and to try to lower them, Mr. Trump recently lifted some economic sanctions on Russian oil. That infuriated Europeans and Mr. Zelensky, since it helps finance the Russian war machine.

更棘手的是，伊朗战争导致油价飙升，而为了压低油价，特朗普最近放松了对俄罗斯石油的部分经济制裁。此举激怒了欧洲各国和泽连斯基，因为这为俄罗斯的战争机器提供了资金支持。

And Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine.

而在莫斯科看来，对伊朗的援助某种程度上是对美国援助乌克兰的对等回应。

Russia’s help to Iran follows Tehran’s important military aid to the Russian army in Ukraine at one of its lowest points in September 2022, especially by providing hundreds of the Shahed-136 Iranian drones.

在俄罗斯向伊朗提供援助之前，伊朗曾在2022年9月俄军处于低谷时向其提供了重要的军事援助，特别是提供了数百架伊朗的“见证者-136”无人机。

Russia then built its own production facility for the drones in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, around 620 miles east of Moscow. While Russian specialists initially assembled drones from Iranian kits, the operation has scaled up dramatically.

此后，俄罗斯在距莫斯科约1000公里的鞑靼斯坦叶拉布加建立了自己的无人机生产基地。虽然俄罗斯专家最初是用伊朗的套件组装无人机，但如今该工厂的生产规模已大幅扩大。

In early 2023, the plant produced roughly 100 drones per month but now can produce thousands. The design has also evolved. Russian engineers have modified the original into a distinctively Russian product, featuring domestic airframes, warheads and navigation systems.

2023年初，该工厂每月产量约为100架无人机，现在月产量可达数千架。设计也发生了变化。俄罗斯工程师在原型基础上进行了改造，形成了具有明显俄罗斯特色的产品，采用本土机体、战斗部和导航系统。

Last July, Timur Shagivaleyev, the head of the special economic zone that houses the Yelabuga factory, described it on Russian state television as “the biggest and the most secretive strike drone factory in the world.”

去年7月，叶拉布加工厂所在经济特区的负责人帖木儿·沙吉瓦列耶夫在俄罗斯国家电视台称其为“世界上最大、最神秘的攻击无人机工厂”。

Stocks on Wall Street suffered their largest daily decline since the start of the war with Iran on Thursday, falling as oil prices rose sharply after President Trump raised the pressure on Iran to accept terms to end the war.

随着特朗普总统加大对伊朗施压，要求其接受结束战争的条件，油价大幅上涨，华尔街股市周四遭遇了自对伊朗开战以来最大单日跌幅。

“We’ll just keep blowing them away, unimpeded,” Mr. Trump said at his first cabinet meeting since the war started. While the S&P 500 had started Thursday with a decline, the losses deepened after the meeting.

“我们会继续毫无阻碍、毫不间断地打击他们，”特朗普在战争开始后的首次内阁会议上表示。尽管标准普尔500指数周四开盘时已现跌势，但在会议结束后跌幅进一步扩大。

The index fell 1.7 percent Thursday, its biggest daily decline since January, putting the index on course for its fifth straight week of losses for the first time in four years. Bourses in Asia and Europe were also lit red throughout the day.

该指数周四下跌1.7%，创下自1月份以来最大单日跌幅，并有可能录得四年来首次连续第五周下跌。亚洲和欧洲的股市当天也普遍收跌。

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose roughly 5.7 percent, to $108.01 a barrel, its highest this week.

全球油价基准布伦特原油价格上涨约5.7%，至每桶108.01美元，创下本周最高水平。

Investors and analysts have been focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is a vital trading route for oil and natural gas that normally carries as much as one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Shipping traffic exiting the Persian Gulf through the strait has been effectively halted since the war began on Feb. 28, leading to a spike in energy prices and concerns about lasting damage from the war.

投资者和分析师一直密切关注霍尔木兹海峡，这是位于伊朗和阿曼之间的一条狭窄水道，是石油和天然气的重要贸易通道，通常承载着全球多达五分之一的石油供应。自2月28日战争爆发以来，通过该海峡进出波斯湾的航运已基本中断，导致能源价格飙升，并引发战争可能造成持久损害的担忧。

Mr. Trump on Thursday afternoon said he didn’t yet know whether he would extend a deadline he gave to Iran to fully open the strait by Friday or the United States would “obliterate” power stations there.

特朗普周四下午表示，他尚未决定是否延长此前设定的最后期限，要求伊朗在周五前全面开放该海峡，否则美国将“摧毁”当地的发电设施。

But minutes after the stock markets slid to a close, Mr. Trump announced a 10-day extension to the deadline. In a post on Truth Social, he said the pause was “per Iranian Government request.”

但就在股市收跌数分钟后，特朗普宣布将最后期限延长10天。他在Truth Social上发帖称，暂停是“应伊朗政府的要求”。

It’s not the first time Mr. Trump has backed off the threat to Iranian power infrastructure. He did so on Monday too, in comments that led to a slide in oil prices and a jump in stocks that day, and served as another sign of the financial markets’ ability to sway his policies.

这并非特朗普第一次在针对伊朗电力基础设施的威胁上退让。他周一也曾作出退让表态，当时引发了油价下跌和股市上涨，这也再次显示出金融市场对其政策走向的影响力。

The war also continues to pressure bond yields, raising concerns over housing affordability and inflation generally.

这场战争也持续给债券收益率带来压力，引发了人们对住房负担能力以及整体通胀的担忧。

Government bond yields, which underpin borrowing costs across consumer and corporate debt, rose on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest since July. The jump in bond yields has already begun to weigh on the housing market, as mortgage rates follow: The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate climbed to 6.38 percent, Freddie Mac said on Thursday. That is its highest level since the first week of September.

决定消费者和企业借贷成本的政府债券收益率周四上涨，其中10年期美国国债收益率升至去年7月以来的最高水平。债券收益率的飙升已经开始对房地产市场造成压力，抵押贷款利率也随之上升：房地美周四表示，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率攀升至6.38%，为去年9月第一周以来的最高水平。

Higher interest rates have accompanied the move higher in oil prices as investors fret about the potential for energy costs to reignite inflation. The Federal Reserve has already said it is likely to keep interest rates elevated until it can be sure inflation is under control.

随着油价上涨，利率也随之走高，投资者担心能源成本可能再次推高通胀。美联储此前已表示，在确信通胀得到控制之前，可能会维持较高利率。

Also on Thursday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted that the inflation rate in the United States will average 4.2 percent this year, more than one percentage point higher than a previous forecast made late last year.

同样在周四，经合组织预测，美国今年的通胀率平均为4.2%，比去年底的预测高出1个百分点以上。

In a report this week, Oxford Economics forecast a gradual decline in energy prices, but said that “a prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz or sustained closures of oil and gas facilities could lead to significantly worse outcomes.”

牛津经济研究院本周在一份报告中预计能源价格将逐步回落，但也警告称，“霍尔木兹海峡航运长期中断或石油和天然气设施持续关闭，可能导致更为严重的后果。”

We’ve seen prebiotic sodas for gut health, the “sleepy girl mocktail” for sleep and lemon water for immunity and weight loss. Now, the latest beverage riding the online wellness wave is hot water.

我们见过为肠道健康推出的益生元汽水、助眠的“睡美人无酒精鸡尾酒”，以及主打提升免疫力和减肥的柠檬水。眼下，最新一款搭上网络养生热潮的饮品是热水。

The trend is part of a wider online phenomenon of people adopting elements of Eastern medicine and Chinese culture and documenting their experiences on social media.

这一趋势是一个更广泛的网络现象的一部分，即人们接纳东方医学和中国文化的元素，并在社交媒体上记录自己的体验。

A popular example is drinking hot or warm water in the morning before breakfast. Many claim it improves digestion, leaving them feeling thinner and less bloated — and occasionally running for the bathroom. Some also say it improves the skin, helps with weight loss and even “detoxifies” the body.

一个常见的做法是早餐前喝一杯热水或温水。许多人声称这能改善消化，让人感觉更轻盈、不易腹胀——有时甚至会让人急着跑去上厕所。还有人说它能改善皮肤、帮助减肥，甚至让身体“排毒”。

All this from water? We asked experts to help us boil it down.

这一切竟然只是靠水？我们请专家来帮忙说清楚。

A Kick-Start to the Gut

唤醒肠道

For thousands of years, practitioners of traditional Chinese medicine and ayurveda — a holistic medical system from India — have encouraged drinking hot or warm water in the morning (and throughout the day), in part to keep the digestive system operating at its best. When food and drinks are consumed cold, the thinking goes, digestion worsens, leading to gastrointestinal discomfort like bloating, said Jeff Gould, an acupuncturist at Johns Hopkins Medicine who is trained in traditional Chinese medicine.

数千年来，中医和阿育吠陀（源自印度的一种整体医学体系）一直提倡在早晨（以及一天中其他时间）饮用热水或温水，其中一个原因是帮助消化系统保持最佳运作状态。约翰斯·霍普金斯医学中心接受过中医训练的针灸师杰夫·古尔德表示，从这些理论来看，食用冷的食物或饮料会削弱消化功能，从而引发腹胀等胃肠不适。

Few scientific studies have explored the digestive benefits of hot or warm water. One, published in 2016, looked at 60 patients who had just come out of gallbladder surgery and found that those who drank warm water a few hours after the procedure passed gas sooner than those who didn’t drink anything. The water didn’t significantly hasten their first bowel movement, however. (Other research suggests that coffee is better for that.)

鲜有科学研究探讨过热水或温水对消化的益处。2016年发表的一项研究报告观察了60名刚做完胆囊手术的患者，发现术后几小时饮用温水的患者比未饮用的患者更早排气。不过，饮水并未显著加快他们的首次排便时间。（另有研究表明，咖啡在这方面的效果更好。）

There are a few small studies that have suggested that cold drinks or meals might cause the stomach to empty its contents more slowly than warm or hot ones. But those studies are limited, experts say. And it’s not clear how (or if) that would affect the way you feel, Dr. Linda A. Lee, a gastroenterologist at Northwell Health in New Hyde Park, N.Y., said via email.

还有一些小规模研究显示，冷饮或冷食可能会让胃排空的速度比温热食物更慢。但专家表示，这些研究证据有限。纽约州新海德公园诺斯韦尔健康中心的胃肠病学家琳达·李博士在邮件中表示，尚不清楚这种差异如何（或是否会）影响人的实际感受。

Despite the lack of scientific evidence, sipping warm water to stimulate a No. 2 first thing in the morning does make physiological sense, said Dr. Lisa Ganjhu, a gastroenterologist at NYU Langone Health. Your digestion slows while you sleep, she said. Anything you eat or drink — at any temperature — upon waking spurs waves of contraction and relaxation in the muscles of the esophagus, stomach and intestines. “It’s basically telling everyone, ‘OK, get up. We’ve got to get moving,’” Dr. Ganjhu said.

纽约大学朗格尼医学中心的胃肠病学家丽莎·甘朱博士表示，尽管缺乏科学证据，但从生理角度来看，早晨第一件事就是喝温水来刺激排便是有一定道理的。她说，人在睡眠期间消化活动会减慢。醒来后，你摄入的任何东西——无论温度如何——都会刺激食道、胃和肠道肌肉产生收缩和舒张的波动。“这基本上是在告诉整个消化系统，‘好了，起床了，我们要开始运转了，’”甘朱博士说。

Dr. Folasade May, a gastroenterologist and associate professor of medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, said she was unfamiliar with hot water’s star turn on social media. Many of her patients have mentioned that they have an easier time passing bowel movements after drinking warm water (often with lemon) first thing in the morning. Some, she said, may feel an almost immediate urge to use the toilet, though she added that the temperature of the water may not be important; it’s possible they’d have the same experience if the water were lukewarm or cold.

加州大学洛杉矶分校医学副教授、胃肠病学家福拉萨德·梅博士表示，她此前并不了解热水在社交媒体上的走红。她的许多患者提到，早晨起床后喝温水（通常加柠檬）会更容易排便。有些人甚至会几乎立刻产生如厕的冲动。不过她也补充说，水的温度可能并非关键——即使是温凉水甚至冷水，也可能产生同样效果。

Whether prompted by water, coffee, juice or food, any forward motion of the gastrointestinal tract moves not only stool but gas, Dr. May said, which can make you “feel less distended, less bloated.”

梅博士说，无论是水、咖啡、果汁还是食物引发的，胃肠道的任何前进运动不仅会推动粪便，也会推动气体，从而让人“感觉不那么胀，不那么鼓”。

As for claims that drinking hot water has “detoxifying” properties, Kristen Smith, a dietitian and spokeswoman for the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, said that water doesn’t remove toxins — the liver and kidneys do.

关于喝热水可以“排毒”的说法，营养与饮食学会的发言人、营养师克里斯汀·史密斯表示，水并不能清除毒素——这项工作是由肝脏和肾脏完成的。

And when it comes to weight loss, some people may notice a temporary drop on the scale right after a substantial bowel movement, Dr. Ganjhu said. If the water is replacing sugary, high-calorie drinks, Dr. May said, it could lead to more permanent weight loss.

至于减重方面，甘朱博士表示，有些人在一次较大量排便后，体重秤上的数字可能会暂时下降。梅博士说，如果饮用水替代了含糖、高热量的饮料，这可能带来更持久的减肥效果。

The Advantages of Hydration

补水的好处

It’s possible that the main benefit of drinking warm water in the morning is simply that it’s hydrating, Ms. Smith said.

史密斯表示，早晨喝温水的主要好处可能就是补充水分。

When you wake up, you’re a little dehydrated, Dr. Ganjhu added, so drinking water can help with any of the symptoms that may come along with that, like hunger, headaches and grogginess. Over time, she said, staying hydrated makes stool softer and easier to pass, helping to keep you regular and feel less bloated.

甘朱博士补充说，人在醒来时往往处于轻度脱水状态，因此喝水可以缓解由此带来的一些症状，比如饥饿感、头痛和昏沉感。她还表示，假以时日，身体不缺水就可以让粪便更柔软、更容易排出，有助于维持排便规律，并减少腹胀感。

There’s also evidence that drinking more water can improve the appearance of the skin by reducing dryness. If you don’t drink enough during the day, Dr. May said, regularly having some in the morning can help “close the gap.”

还有研究表明，多喝水可以通过减少干燥来改善皮肤外观态。梅博士说，如果你白天饮水不足，那么早晨规律地喝一些水有助于“弥补缺口”。

The hot water trend is proving what we already know, she said: “Water is really good for you all around.”

她说，喝热水潮流恰好证明了我们已经知道的事实：“多喝水对身体各方面都有好处。”

As first lady, Melania Trump promotes opportunities for foster children, argues for the eradication of online bullying and often travels to military bases in support of soldiers and their families.

作为第一夫人，梅拉尼娅·特朗普致力于为领养儿童创造机会，呼吁消除网暴，并经常前往军事基地支持士兵及其家属。

She is also very into robots.

她还非常喜欢机器人。

On Wednesday, Mrs. Trump appeared at the White House alongside Figure 3, a humanoid, A.I.-powered robot whose uses, according to the company that makes it, include fetching towels, carrying groceries and serving champagne. But Mrs. Trump joins tech executives and some researchers in envisioning a world beyond robot butlery. She is interested in how these robots could cut it as educators.

周三，特朗普夫人与Figure 3一同现身白宫。这是一款由人工智能驱动的人形机器人，据其制造商称，它可以取毛巾、搬运杂货、倒香槟。但特朗普夫人与科技高管及部分研究人员一样，并不满足于机器人仅做家务。她对这些机器人能否胜任教育者的角色很感兴趣。

Both clad in shades of white, the first lady and the visiting robot walked into a gathering of first spouses from around the world, a group that included Sara Netanyahu of Israel, Olena Zelenska of Ukraine, and Brigitte Macron of France. The dulcet tones from a (presumably human) military orchestra played as the first lady and her guest entered the event.

第一夫人和来访的机器人均身着白色调服装，一同走进一场全球第一配偶的聚会。与会者包括以色列的萨拉·内塔尼亚胡、乌克兰的奥莱娜·泽连斯卡，以及法国的布丽吉特·马克龙。当第一夫人和她的客人入场时，一支（估计是由人类组成的）军乐队奏响了柔和的旋律。

Both lady and robot extolled the virtues of further integrating robots into the educational and social lives of children. In the history of modern first-lady initiatives, which have included building a national book festival (Laura Bush), reshuffling the food pyramid (Michelle Obama) and advocating for free community college (Jill Biden), Mrs. Trump’s involvement of a humanoid robot in education policy was a first.

第一夫人和机器人都赞扬了将机器人进一步融入儿童教育和社会生活的益处。在现代第一夫人倡议的历史中——包括创办全国图书节（劳拉·布什）、调整食物金字塔（米歇尔·奥巴马）、倡导免费社区学院（吉尔·拜登），特朗普夫人将人形机器人引入教育政策的倡议尚属首次。

Figure 3 delivered brief remarks and delivered salutations in several languages. With its sleek black-and-white appearance, Figure 3 would fit right in with the first lady’s branding aesthetic, which includes a self-titled coffee table book and movie, not least because the name “MELANIA” was emblazoned on the side of its glossy plastic head.

Figure 3发表了简短致辞，并用多种语言致以问候。它那光滑的黑白外观与第一夫人的品牌美学非常契合——后者包括一本以自己命名的咖啡桌书和电影。更巧的是，它的亮面塑料头部侧面还醒目地印着“MELANIA”字样。

After Figure 3 teetered gingerly away, Mrs. Trump looked around the room and told them that the future looked a lot like what they had just witnessed.

在Figure 3小心翼翼地摇晃着离开后，特朗普夫人环顾四周，对大家说：未来看起来很像他们刚刚目睹的场景。

“The future of A.I. is ‘personified,’” she told her audience. “It will be formed in the shape of humans. Very soon artificial intelligence will move from our mobile phones to humanoids that deliver utility.”

“人工智能的未来是‘拟人化’的，”她告诉听众，“它将以人类的形态出现。很快，人工智能将从我们的手机转向能够提供实用功能的人形机器人。”

She invited her guests to envision a future in which a robot philosopher educated children.

她邀请客人们想象这样一个未来：一个机器人哲学家来教育孩子。

机器人头部的屏幕上显示着第一夫人的名字。

“Imagine a humanoid educator named ‘Plato,’” she said. “Access to the classical studies is now instantaneous: literature, science, art, philosophy, mathematics, and history. Humanity’s entire corpus of information is available in the comfort of your home.”

“想象一个名叫‘柏拉图’的人形教育者，”她说，“对古典学研究的获取现在变得即时可得：文学、科学、艺术、哲学、数学和历史。人类全部知识体系都能在家中舒适的环境中获得。”

The first lady has talked about the possibilities of robotics before. She has also warned about the dangers of relying too much on technology. Last fall, flanked by administration officials who work in technology and artificial intelligence, Mrs. Trump’s warning had a bit of gravity to it.

第一夫人此前就曾谈及机器人技术的可能性。她也警告过过度依赖技术的危险。去年秋天，在一群负责技术和人工智能的政府官员陪同下，特朗普夫人的警告带有几分严肃意味。

“The robots are here,” she said at a White House event last September. “Our future is no longer science fiction.”

“机器人已经来了，”她在去年9月的一次白宫活动中说，“我们的未来不再是科幻小说。”

In that event, she also likened embracing A.I. to adopting a productive parenting strategy: “empowering, but with watchful guidance.”

在那次活动中，她还将拥抱人工智能比作一种富有成效的育儿策略：“赋予力量，但需伴以警惕的指导。”

Mrs. Trump’s enthusiasm for using artificial intelligence to teach children mirrors another official initiative within the administration. Last April, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a task force to evaluate and fund private programs that could partner with government initiatives to fold A.I. into curriculums or train educators. Mrs. Trump is not an official part of that task force but used her time on Wednesday to argue to “bring the private and public sector worlds together.”

特朗普夫人对利用人工智能教育儿童的热情与政府内部的另一项官方举措相呼应。去年4月，特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，成立一个特别工作组，负责评估和资助私人项目，使其与政府举措合作，将人工智能融入课程或培训教育者。特朗普夫人并非该工作组的正式成员，但她在周三利用此次机会主张“将私营部门和公共部门的世界连接起来”。

A spokesman for Mrs. Trump did not immediately return a request for comment on Wednesday about whether or not Figure AI, the company that produces the robots, had current contracts with the administration or federal government. Figure AI is backed, in part, by Nvidia, the tech behemoth that recently got Mr. Trump’s permission to sell A.I. chips to China, reversing decades of existing technology restrictions against Beijing. Last year, Figure AI said that it planned to produce at least 100,000 humanoid robots in the coming years.

对于生产该机器人的Figure AI是否与政府有现行合同的问题，特朗普夫人的发言人周三未立即回复置评。Figure AI的部分资金来自英伟达，这家科技巨头最近获得特朗普的许可，向中国出售人工智能芯片，逆转了数十年来对北京的技术限制。去年，Figure AI表示计划在未来几年生产至少10万台人形机器人。

Researchers are split about the benefits of using artificial intelligence to educate children, but some see its potential as a supplemental tool to develop reading and social skills. Last fall, researchers at the University of Chicago’s Human-Robot Interaction Lab published a study that showed that children demonstrated less anxiety when reading to a robot versus a human teacher. In other studies, children have formed social bonds with robots as they have practiced skills including handwriting and completing puzzles.

研究人员对于使用人工智能教育儿童的益处意见不一，但一些人认为它有潜力作为补充工具，帮助培养阅读和社会技能。去年秋天，芝加哥大学人机交互实验室的研究人员发表了一项研究，显示儿童在对着机器人阅读时表现出的焦虑感要比面对人类教师时低。还有一些研究表明，儿童在练习写字和完成拼图等技能时，与机器人形成了社交联络。

Researchers also advise caution about turning over a fleet of humanoid robots to educate children. Vivienne Ming, a neuroscientist and A.I. researcher, wrote on the news site CNBC on Tuesday that parents and educators should be involved in making sure that children learn alongside A.I. tools, rather than be taught by them.

研究人员也建议谨慎行事，不要把对儿童的教育丢给一群人形机器人。神经科学家兼人工智能研究员维维安·明周二在CNBC网站上撰文称，父母和教育者应参与其中，确保儿童是与人工智能工具一起学习，而不是完全由它们来教。

“A.I. should never provide the final answer,” she wrote. “Kids can use it to brainstorm or explore, but they must produce their own first draft or solution.”

“人工智能永远不应提供最终答案，”她写道，“孩子们可以用它来头脑风暴或探索，但他们必须自己完成初稿或解决方案。”

Marc Beckman, an adviser to Mrs. Trump, told Turning Point USA on Wednesday that the first lady had also invited representatives from the Alpha School, an A.I.-powered private school, to participate in the summit with other first spouses. He called Mrs. Trump “ahead of the curve.”

特朗普夫人的顾问马克·贝克曼周三告诉Turning Point USA，第一夫人还邀请了由人工智能驱动的私立学校“阿尔法学校”的代表参加这场第一配偶峰会。他称特朗普夫人“走在了时代前列”。

“She’s about impacting people’s lives,” Mr. Beckman said when asked about what Americans should know about the first lady’s platform. “And if they could support her, if they could get around her and help stand up these missions of empowering children through education and technology, it would be amazing.”

“她关注的是影响人们的生活，”贝克曼在被问及美国人应该如何了解第一夫人的纲领时说，“如果他们能够支持她，围绕在她身边，帮助推动这些通过教育和技术赋能儿童的使命，那将会非常了不起。”

Mrs. Trump views herself and her potential in similar terms.

特朗普夫人用类似的言辞描述了自己以及她的潜力。

“As a visionary, I know success is not born overnight, but rather takes shape after a long and sometimes challenging process,” Mrs. Trump said during a Women’s History Month event held earlier this month at the White House. “Often alone at the top, I follow my passion, listen to my instinct, and always maintain a laser focus.”

“作为一名有远见者，我知道成功并非一蹴而就，而是经过漫长、有时充满挑战的过程逐渐成形，”特朗普夫人在本月早些时候于白宫举行的妇女历史月活动中表示，“我常常独自站在顶端，循着自己的热情，听从本能，并始终保持激光般的专注。”

Across Asia, countries already vulnerable to the sustained disruption in energy supplies from the Persian Gulf are also contending with an ominous side effect. Their currencies are being suffocated by a dollar that is surging in value.

在亚洲，许多国家本就易受波斯湾能源供应持续中断的影响，如今又在应对一个令人不安的副作用：它们的货币正被不断升值的美元绞杀。

The war in the Middle East has effectively cut off oil and gas that travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel that has become the world’s most dangerous bottleneck.

中东战争已经实质上切断经由霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油和天然气，这条狭窄通道成为全球最危险的瓶颈。

The fighting has revealed a second painful choke point. About 90 percent of international trade in goods — including the oil and gas that are skyrocketing in price — uses the American currency.

冲突暴露了第二个痛苦的咽喉要道。大约90%的国际货物贸易——包括价格正在暴涨的石油和天然气——都使用美元作为结算货币。

And as often happens in times of global turmoil, investors are taking money out of riskier regions and putting more money into U.S. assets. That is driving up the dollar, which is approaching its highest value against Asian currencies in the past two decades. A result is that many currencies are growing weaker just when their buying power is most needed.

而在全球动荡时期，投资者往往会将资金从风险较高的地区撤出，转而投入美国资产。这推动美元升值，目前美元兑亚洲货币的汇率正接近过去二十年来的最高水平。结果就是，许多货币在最需要购买力的时候却变得更加疲软。

The combined effect of these pressures has debilitated economies across Asia, where some local energy costs are even higher than global benchmark prices and stock investors are running scared.

这些压力的叠加效应已使亚洲各经济体陷入困境，那里一些本地能源成本甚至高于全球基准价格，而股市投资者则惊慌逃离。

由于柴油短缺和燃油价格上涨，泰国渔业在未来几周内可能面临大量渔船被迫停港的压力。

On Monday, India’s main stock index lost 2.5 percent of its value in the hours before President Trump announced a five-day delay in his plan to bombard Iran’s energy infrastructure — having fallen almost 13 percent since the war started. Those stock market losses have pulled money out of India, pressing its currency, the rupee, lower. South Korea’s currency, the won, had just matched its lowest-ever exchange rate against the dollar, for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008.

周一，在特朗普总统宣布将其轰炸伊朗能源基础设施的计划推迟五天之前，印度主要股指损失了2.5%的价值——自战争爆发以来，该指数已下跌近13%。这些股市损失导致资金流出印度，进一步压低了卢比汇率。韩元兑美元汇率刚刚创下自2008年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。

Both countries have seen some easing of the financial strain in the past few days, keying in on signals that Mr. Trump is seeking an offramp for the war. But deeper risks have taken root.

过去几天，这两个国家都看到金融压力有所缓解，这与特朗普寻求退出战争的信号有关。但更深层的风险已经扎根。

In the Philippines, higher oil prices and a weaker Philippine peso present a “double whammy that will double inflation in the coming months, hitting millions of poor Filipino families the hardest,” the IBON Foundation, an economic research group, said in a note on Friday. The country’s president, Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday. The Philippines imports 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East.

在菲律宾，油价上涨和比索贬值构成了“双重打击，将在未来几个月使通胀加倍，数百万贫困的菲律宾家庭将承受最严重的打击”，经济研究机构IBON基金会周五在一份报告中指出。该国总统费迪南德·R·马科斯二世周二宣布进入全国能源紧急状态。菲律宾90%的石油从中东进口。

菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯于周二宣布该国进入国家能源紧急状态。

In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung started a nationwide energy-saving campaign on Tuesday. Nearly 70 percent of that country’s supply of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

在韩国，李在明总统周二启动了全国节能运动。该国近70%的原油供应需经过霍尔木兹海峡。

The whole world is struggling with the new scarcity of oil, which analysts have estimated to be worse than the 1970s’ shocks.

全世界都在与新的石油短缺作斗争，分析师估计这次冲击比1970年代的石油危机还要严重。

Even in the United States, which became a net energy exporter during the oil-shale boom, the average gallon of gasoline has climbed to $3.98, more than a dollar higher than before the war.

即使随着页岩油大发展已成为净能源出口国的美国，汽油平均价格也已升至每加仑3.98美元，比战前高出超过一美元。

Compare that with what is happening to Asia. First, the shortage of supply is worse. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil traded across the Atlantic Ocean is now about $100, up from $70 a month ago. But because Asian countries buy so much of their oil from the Middle East, the intense demand for the suddenly smaller supply has driven prices even higher.

与亚洲的情况相比，首先是供应短缺更为严重。大西洋两岸交易的布伦特原油价格目前约为每桶100美元，相比一个月前的70美元左右上涨了约30美元。但由于亚洲国家大量从中东购买石油，对突然减少的供应的激烈争夺已将价格推得更高。

The second whammy strikes when those prices are converted into currencies that are shrinking in comparison with the dollar. India’s rupee has been weakening for the past year, even when the dollar itself was shrinking relative to most currencies. One dollar now costs 93.2 rupees, 8 percent more than a year ago.

第二个打击发生在这些价格换算成相对于美元不断贬值的本地货币时。印度卢比在过去一年里一直在贬值，即使当时美元相对于大多数货币都在走弱。现在1美元兑换93.2卢比，比一年前高出8%。

So Indian buyers must pay 14,748 rupees to get exactly as much energy as they got for 6,087 one year before the war.

因此，印度买家现在必须支付14748卢比，才能买到战前一年只需6087卢比就能获得的等量能源。

新加坡裕廊岛的储油罐和炼油厂。

“Having the oil price go up when their exchange rates are already weak is doubly painful,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard.

“在汇率已经疲弱的情况下油价上涨，是双重痛苦，”哈佛大学经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫说。

Spending so much on an essential commodity is a cold reality across Asia.

在亚洲各地，为这种必需品花费巨资已成为冷酷的现实。

Thailand’s truck drivers, for example, have said they lack diesel, which like gasoline is refined from crude oil and has leaped in price, to drive goods to and from ports.

例如，泰国的卡车司机表示，他们缺乏柴油（柴油和汽油一样从原油中提炼而成），其价格已大幅上涨，导致货物无法运往港口或从港口运出。

The currency of any country that spends more on imported goods while earning less from exports is losing value to the rest of the world. And when anxious investors shift their capital — often to the dollar, traditionally the safest store of value — that further depreciates the struggling currency.

任何进口支出增加而出口收入减少的国家的货币，都会在全球范围内贬值。而当焦虑的投资者将资本转移——往往转向传统的安全价值储存手段美元，就会进一步加速疲弱货币的贬值。

Thailand’s currency, the baht, had started this year on a stronger footing than India’s rupee. But it has quickly fallen to a 10-month low and is expected to keep sinking as long as the war lasts.

泰铢今年年初的走势强于印度卢比，但现在已迅速跌至10个月低点，并且只要战争持续，预计会继续下沉。

Thailand’s tourism and export industries usually benefit from a weak baht. This time, however, jitters over global travel have led to canceled vacations.

泰国的旅游业和出口业通常会从疲弱的泰铢中受益。然而这一次，对全球旅行的担忧已导致大量度假行程被取消。

The question for nervous governments becomes: How best to distribute the pain? Tradeoffs abound.

紧张的政府面临的问题是：如何更好地分摊这些痛苦？处处都要权衡取舍。

Jahangir Aziz, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York, said that for any country, “the question is, how do you want to absorb the hit?” Governments and central banks must make decisions that end up determining who is hurt the worst.

摩根大通纽约首席经济学家贾汉吉尔·阿齐兹表示，对任何国家来说，“问题在于，你想如何吸收这一冲击？”政府和央行必须做出决定，最终谁将受到最严重的伤害。

上周，在斯里兰卡科伦坡，一处近乎空无一人的火车站。此前，政府为节约紧缺的燃油储备，宣布缩短了工作周。

On the one hand, a country’s central bank could stand pat and let the currency’s value shrink. Then the country’s imports become more expensive, but its exports become cheaper. Cheaper exports helps some local businesses, and workers who earn dollars abroad can send home more in remittances to support the domestic economy.

一方面，一国央行可以按兵不动，任由本币贬值。这样该国的进口会变得更贵，但出口会更便宜。更便宜的出口有助于一些本地企业，而在海外赚取美元的工人也能汇回更多钱来支持国内经济。

However, more costly imports mean a country’s households and consumers must bear higher prices. And that can destabilize society and even topple governments. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka ousted political dynasties during recent financial crises. The Asian currency crisis of 1997 ended a 31-year autocracy in Indonesia.

然而，更昂贵的进口意味着该国的家庭和消费者必须承受更高的价格。这可能导致社会动荡，甚至推翻政府。孟加拉国和斯里兰卡曾在最近的金融危机中推翻了政治王朝。1997年的亚洲货币危机结束了印度尼西亚长达31年的独裁统治。

When a government sets out to defend its currency from a surging dollar, Mr. Aziz said, it faces a stark choice: “The only way you do that is by spending very large amounts of foreign reserves — or you let interest rates rise.”

阿齐兹说，当政府决心捍卫本币免受美元飙升的冲击时，它面临一个严峻的选择：“唯一的方法是花费大量外汇储备——或者让利率上升。”

The crisis affecting countries today is nothing like the Asian currency crisis, Mr. Aziz said, in part because of lessons learned back then. Exchange rates are now allowed to float, meaning that currencies’ values fluctuate in sync with supply and demand. And countries have piled up large reserves of dollars and other foreign assets they can use in times like this.

阿齐兹表示，今天影响各国的危机与亚洲货币危机不同，部分原因是当时吸取的教训。如今汇率被允许浮动，即货币价值随供求关系波动。而且各国已积累了大量美元和其他外国资产储备，可在类似时期使用。

Mr. Rogoff of Harvard said the pain borne by Asia this year was likely to make the dollar less attractive in the future.

哈佛大学的罗格夫表示，亚洲今年承受的痛苦很可能让美元在未来变得不那么有吸引力。

“Anything that poses obstacles to global trade and creates geopolitical fracturing is bad for a currency that claims to dominate the whole world,” he said.

“任何对全球贸易构成障碍并造成地缘政治分裂的事情，都对一种声称主导全世界的货币不利，”他说。

上周，在首尔某银行外汇交易点的货币交易员。韩元兑美元汇率刚刚触及了自2008年金融危机以来的最低点。

But the need of the hour across Asia is to scare up enough hard currency to buy urgently needed energy. The future of the dollar’s role, Mr. Rogoff said, will be answered later by a question “about trust in the U.S.: Is it still a safe haven and a safe partner?”

但亚洲各国当务之急是筹集足够硬通货来购买急需的能源。罗格夫说，美元角色的未来，将在稍后由一个关于“对美国的信任”的问题来回答：“它是否仍然是一个安全的避风港和可靠的伙伴？”

On Wednesday, a Los Angeles jury held Meta and YouTube liable for claims their platforms are addictive and have harmed young users, and ordered them to pay a combined $6 million in damages.

周三，洛杉矶的一个陪审团裁定，Meta和YouTube应对它们的平台具有成瘾性并伤害年轻用户的指控承担责任，并责令两家公司合计赔偿600万美元。

The verdict was the first in a series of trials expected this year in which plaintiffs’ lawyers are testing a novel legal theory claiming that Meta, YouTube, Snap and TikTok caused personal injury through defective products.

该判决是今年一系列审判中的首个结果，原告律师在这些审判中正在测试一种新的法律理论，即Meta、YouTube、Snap和TikTok因其有缺陷的产品造成了人身伤害。

Thousands of individuals, school districts and state attorneys general have filed similar lawsuits. This week’s win could open the door to an avalanche of similar claims.

数以千计的个人、学区以及州检察长已经提起类似诉讼。本周的这一胜诉可能为大量类似索赔打开大门。

Here’s what to know.

以下是需要了解的情况。

What are the cases about?

这些案件主要涉及什么？

These cases test the argument that social media was built to be addictive, like cigarettes or casino slot machines.

这些案件试图论证，社交媒体的设计本身就带有成瘾性，就像香烟或老虎机一样。

The lawsuits claim that social media features like infinite scrolling, algorithmic recommendations, notifications and videos that play automatically lead to compulsive use. The plaintiffs contend that the resulting addiction has led to problems like depression, anxiety, eating disorders and self-harm, including suicide.

这些诉讼称，无限滚动、算法推荐、通知提醒以及自动播放的视频等社交媒体功能导致了强迫性使用。原告认为，由此产生的成瘾已经引发了抑郁、焦虑、饮食失调以及包括自杀在内的自残行为等问题。

The cases have drawn comparisons to those against Big Tobacco in the 1990s, when companies like Philip Morris and R.J. Reynolds were accused of hiding information about the harms of cigarettes.

这些案件被拿来与上世纪90年代针对烟草巨头的诉讼相提并论，当时菲利普莫里斯和雷诺烟草等公司被指控隐瞒了香烟危害的相关信息。

What was the first lawsuit about?

第一起诉讼是什么案件？

The first plaintiff was a 20-year-old woman from California identified as K.G.M. in California Superior Court in Los Angeles County.

首位原告是一名来自加州的20岁女性，在洛杉矶县高等法院的诉讼文件中被称为K.G.M.。

K.G.M. created a YouTube account at age 8, then joined Instagram, which is owned by Meta, at 9. In her lawsuit, she claimed she became addicted to the social media sites as a child and experienced anxiety, depression and body-image issues as a result.

K.G.M.在八岁时创建了一个YouTube账户，九岁时又加入了Meta旗下的Instagram。她在诉讼中称，自己从小就对这些社交媒体网站成瘾，并因此经历了焦虑、抑郁和身材焦虑问题。

K.G.M.’s lawyer said during opening statements that Instagram and YouTube’s apps were built like “digital casinos” that profited off addictive behavior.

K.G.M.的律师在开庭陈述中表示，Instagram和YouTube的应用被设计成类似“数字赌场”，通过用户的成瘾行为获利。

The trial lasted five weeks, and jurors deliberated for more than a week.

该审判持续了五周，陪审团审议了超过一周时间。

On Wednesday, all but two of the jurors determined that Meta and YouTube were negligent in designing their platforms, and that their products harmed K.G.M.

周三，除两名陪审员外，其余陪审员均裁定Meta和YouTube在平台设计上存在疏忽，其产品对K.G.M.造成了伤害。

More trials will follow?

还会有更多审判吗？

Yes, judges have bundled some of the strongest cases among the thousands of suits that were filed to act as bellwethers. A total of nine cases are expected to be heard in the series of trials in Los Angeles, including K.G.M.’s.

会的。法官已从数千起已提起的诉讼中挑选出一些最有代表性的案件，作为标杆案件进行审理。预计在洛杉矶的这一系列审判中将审理共九起案件，其中就包括K.G.M.的案件。

This summer, a separate set of federal cases will go to trial in Oakland, Calif., at the U.S. District Court of Northern California. In that series of cases, school districts and states plan to argue that social media is a public nuisance and that they have had to shoulder the costs of treating a generation of youths suffering from addictive social media use.

今年夏天，另一组联邦案件将在加利福尼亚州奥克兰的美国北加州联邦地区法院开庭审理。在这一系列案件中，学区和各州计划提出社交媒体构成了公害，而学区和州政府不得不承担治疗一代因沉迷社交媒体而受害的年轻人的费用。

In another case, a New Mexico jury on Tuesday found Meta liable for violating state law by failing to safeguard users of its apps from child predators, in a case brought by the state attorney general.

在另一起由新墨西哥州总检察长提起的案件中，该州的一个陪审团周二裁定，Meta因未能保护应用程序的用户免受儿童性侵犯者的侵害，违反了州法律，应承担相应责任。

How are the companies defending themselves?

这些公司是如何为自己辩护的？

Meta, Snap, TikTok and YouTube, which is owned by Google, all argue that there is no clear scientific link between tech use and addiction and insist there needs to be strong proof that their products significantly harmed young users.

Meta、Snap、TikTok以及谷歌旗下的YouTube均辩称，目前尚无明确的科学证据表明科技产品的使用与成瘾之间存在关联，并强调必须要有确凿证据证明它们的产品对年轻用户造成了显著伤害。

The social media companies have cited a federal shield law, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, that protects them from liability for what their users post online.

这些社交媒体公司援引了一项联邦保护性法律——1996年《通信规范法》第230条，该条款使其无需对用户在平台上发布的内容承担责任。

Snap, which owns Snapchat, and TikTok reached settlements with K.G.M. for undisclosed amounts.

旗下拥有Snapchat的Snap公司以及TikTok已与K.G.M.达成和解，具体金额未披露。

Meta said during K.G.M.’s trial that her health issues were caused by familial abuse and turmoil. The company presented medical records to show that social media addiction was not a focus of her therapy sessions.

Meta在K.G.M.的庭审中表示，她的健康问题源于家庭中的虐待和动荡。该公司出示的医疗记录显示，社交媒体成瘾并非她治疗过程中的重点。

Meta’s chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, and the head of Instagram, Adam Mosseri, defended the company during the trial. The executives rejected claims that Instagram could be described as “clinically” addictive.

Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格和Instagram负责人亚当·莫塞里在庭审中为公司辩护。两位高管均否认Instagram可以被描述为“临床意义上的”成瘾性产品。

YouTube said that it was not a social media company and that its features were not designed to be addictive.

YouTube则表示，自己并非一家社交媒体公司，其功能也并非为让人上瘾而设计。

Both companies said Wednesday they were disappointed with the verdict. Meta said it was examining its legal options, and YouTube said it plans to appeal.

两家公司周三均表示对判决结果感到失望。Meta称正在评估法律应对选项，YouTube则表示计划提出上诉。

What’s at stake?

此案有哪些重大影响？

The plaintiffs are asking for monetary damages and potential design changes to the platforms to prevent addictive behavior.

原告正在要求赔偿，并可能推动平台进行设计上的改变，以防止成瘾行为。

In K.G.M.’s trial, Meta must pay $4.2 million in combined compensatory and punitive damages, and YouTube must pay $1.8 million.

在K.G.M.一案中，Meta须支付总计420万美元的补偿性赔偿和惩罚性赔偿，YouTube则须支付180万美元。

In New Mexico, the jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million. The state attorney general, Raúl Torrez, said he will ask for additional damages and changes to the design of the platform.

在新墨西哥州的案件中，陪审团判令Meta支付3.75亿美元。该州总检察长劳尔·托雷兹表示，他还将寻求更多赔偿，并要求对平台设计进行调整。

While those amounts are drops in the bucket for the companies, which bring in billions in revenue, the losses are significant as global attitudes shift against social media companies. And the wins open the door to millions of other claims by social media users.

虽然这些金额对这些年收入数十亿美元的公司来说只是九牛一毛，但鉴于全球舆论风向正转向对社交媒体公司不利，这些败诉的象征意义重大。原告的胜诉也为社交媒体用户提出数以百万计的其他索赔打开了大门。

If the companies are forced to make changes to their products, it could harm their broader business models.

如果这些公司被迫对其产品作出改变，可能会对其整体商业模式造成冲击。

On the road to Asia, President Trump and his aides have taken a sharp detour back to the deserts of the Middle East.

在前往亚洲的路上，特朗普总统及其幕僚突然转弯，重新驶向了中东的荒漠。

Instead of flying to Beijing for a summit early next month, Mr. Trump has said he will stay in Washington to deal with the war against Iran that he started with Israel. Thousands of U.S. Marines are heading on warships from Japan and California toward Iran. American air defense equipment is being shipped from South Korea and other parts of the region to the Middle East.

特朗普并未按原计划于下月初飞往北京参加峰会，而是宣布他将留在华盛顿，处理他与以色列共同发起的对伊战争。目前，数千名美国海军陆战队员正搭乘军舰，从日本和加州分头赶往伊朗。美军的防空设备也正从韩国及该地区其他地点运往中东。

So goes the American “pivot” to Asia, which looks increasingly out of reach.

美国所谓的“转向”亚洲战略正随之而去，显得愈发遥不可及。

Three American presidents have come into office vowing to focus resources on the challenges posed by China, a superpower rival to the United States with the world’s fastest-growing military and second-largest economy.

连续三任美国总统在上任之初都誓言要集中资源应对中国带来的挑战——这个美国眼中的超级大国对手，拥有全球增长最快的军事力量和第二大经济体。

Each one has instead turned to crises in other parts of the world — often to conflicts in the Middle East that they began or supported, despite earlier promises that they had learned the lessons of the costly American “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan.

然而，每一位总统最终都转向了世界其他地区的危机——通常是转向他们发起或支持的中东冲突，尽管他们此前曾承诺，已从伊拉克和阿富汗那些代价高昂的“永恒战争”中吸取了教训。

For weeks, Mr. Trump had billed the summit in Beijing as a critical meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, in which they would hash out their differences on trade, defense and diplomacy.

数周来，特朗普一直将北京峰会宣传为与中国领导人习近平的一次关键会晤，旨在通过此会彻底解决双方在贸易、国防和外交上的分歧。

Then on March 17, Mr. Trump said he would delay the meeting by five or six weeks to stay focused on Iran. (The White House said on Wednesday that the visit has been rescheduled to May 14 and 15.)

随后在3月17日，特朗普表示会面计划将推迟五至六周，以便专注于伊朗局势。（白宫周三表示，访问已重新安排在5月14日和15日。）

When asked that day by a reporter whether Iran was now a bigger foreign policy issue than China, Mr. Trump said: “Iran is just a military operation to me. Iran is just something that essentially was largely over in two or three days.”

当天，当被记者问及伊朗是否已成为比中国更大的外交课题时，特朗普表示：“对我来说，伊朗只是一场军事行动。基本上在两三天内就能大体结束。”

But the war continues, and the Pentagon’s request for a $200 billion supplemental budget indicates it could go on for many months.

但战争仍在继续。五角大楼请求的2000亿美元追加预算表明，这场冲突可能会持续数月之久。

Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war directly contradicts his administration’s national security strategy. Released in December, it said that the U.S. government’s traditional focus on the Middle East “will recede,” and that the administration would prioritize the Western Hemisphere and the Asia-Pacific region.

特朗普的开战决定与其政府的国家安全战略直接冲突。这个去年12月发布的战略明确提到，美国政府传统上对中东的关注将“消退”，政府将优先考虑西半球和亚太地区。

Specifically, it said the United States would challenge China on trade and build up military deterrence around the “first island chain,” an area east of coastal China that includes Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan, the de facto independent island that Chinese leaders aim to control.

具体而言，该战略提到美国将在贸易上挑战中国，并在“第一岛链”周围建立军事威慑。所谓“第一岛链”是指中国沿海以东的区域，包括日本、菲律宾以及台湾——这个事实上独立、而中国领导人目标控制的岛屿。

War in the Middle East, Again

中东战火重燃

Several senior political appointees in the Trump administration had said in recent years that prioritizing Asia was necessary given limits on America’s military resources and the slow production of weapons.

特朗普政府内的几位高级政治任命官员近年来一直表示，鉴于美国军事资源有限且武器生产缓慢，优先考虑亚洲是必要的。

One of them, Elbridge A. Colby, now the under secretary of defense for policy, criticized the expenditure of resources in Ukraine and the Middle East — and warned against getting into a “significant conflict” with Iran. He wrote a book on the need for a “strategy of denial” focused on Taiwan.

其中一位是现任国防部政策副部长埃尔布里奇·柯比。他曾批评在乌克兰和中东挥霍资源的行为，并警告不要与伊朗陷入“重大冲突”。他曾著书专门论述“拒止战略”的必要性，核心观点就是聚焦台湾。

Those same aides, once called “prioritizers,” are now publicly supporting Mr. Trump’s war against Iran. And some analysts have noted the irony of how, after years of U.S. officials denouncing China’s military buildup, Mr. Trump is beseeching China to send a naval expeditionary force to the Middle East to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

这些曾经被称为“优先派”的幕僚，现在却在公开支持特朗普对伊朗的战争。一些分析人士注意到了其中的讽刺意味：在多年谴责中国扩充军备后，特朗普现在竟在哀求中国派遣海军远征部队前往中东，协助维护霍尔木兹海峡的安全。

“I think the Iran war just demonstrates how hard it is for the United States to focus on Asia,” said Zack Cooper, a scholar of U.S. strategy in Asia at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research group. “Even when an administration comes in with a strategy that explicitly downgrades the Middle East in the list of regional priorities, Washington often ends up getting pulled back into conflicts in the region.”

保守派研究机构美国企业研究所的美国亚洲战略学者扎克·库珀表示：“我认为伊朗战争恰恰证明了美国想要专注于亚洲是多么困难。即便一个政府上任时明确在地区优先级名单中下调了中东的地位，华盛顿最终往往还是会被拉回该地区的冲突中。”

“Ultimately, I think this will increase concerns about whether the United States is too distracted and resource-constrained to maintain regional security,” he said. “This will drive some countries to hedge more, and it could risk emboldening China in the mid- to long term.”

库珀补充道：“最终，我认为这将加剧外界的担忧，即美国是否因过度分心和资源受限而无法维持地区安全。这将促使一些国家更多地进行对冲，从中长期来看，这可能会助长中国的气焰。”

上周，德黑兰一处公寓遭美以空袭损毁。五角大楼提出的2000亿美元补充预算请求表明，这场战争可能会持续数月之久。

Mr. Cooper argued in an essay in Foreign Affairs that the pivot announced by President Barack Obama in 2011 has been a failure, and that expectations that the United States would engage deeply across Asia were “no longer realistic.”

库珀在《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志的一篇文章中论证称，奥巴马总统在2011年宣布的“转向亚洲”战略已经失败，而期望美国深度介入亚洲各领域的想法已“不再现实”。

Although the Biden administration bolstered military cooperation with Asian allies, it failed to forge the kinds of free-trade pacts that those governments wanted as an alternative to commerce with China. The idea of free trade has been attacked by American politicians across the political spectrum, including by Mr. Trump, since Mr. Obama made the last serious attempt to engineer an ambitious trade pact in Asia.

尽管拜登政府加强了与亚洲盟友的军事合作，但未能达成这些国家所期望的那种作为对华贸易替代方案的自由贸易协定。自奥巴马最后一次认真尝试在亚洲达成一项雄心勃勃的贸易协定以来，自由贸易的理念一直受到美国各派政治人物的抨击，其中也包括特朗普。

The Biden administration also had to pour military and diplomatic resources into both Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion and Israel’s war in Gaza.

拜登政府还不得不将军事和外交资源投入到乌克兰抵御俄罗斯全面入侵以及以色列在加沙的战争中。

Even before the war against Iran, Mr. Trump’s approach to China had raised questions among many current and former American officials about his understanding of U.S.-China competition.

甚至在对伊战争爆发前，特朗普的对华方针就已经让许多现任和前任美国官员对他是否理解美中竞争产生了疑问。

Unlike President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Mr. Trump calls Mr. Xi a “very good friend,” and he rarely mentions China’s military and technological advances or its human rights record. His administration has lifted export controls on the sale of powerful semiconductor chips to China. And it has delayed a $13 billion arms sale to Taiwan that had been approved by Congress so as not to jeopardize plans for the leadership summit in Beijing, The New York Times reported.

与拜登总统不同，特朗普称习近平为“非常好的朋友”，而且很少提及中国在军事和科技领域的进步或人权记录。他的政府还放松了对华出售高性能半导体芯片的出口管制。据《纽约时报》此前报道，为了不影响在北京举行美中领导人峰会的计划，特朗普政府还推迟了国会批准的一项价值130亿美元的对台军售。

Mr. Trump announced steep tariffs on Chinese imports, to be paid by American companies, but froze those after China threatened to halt exports of processed critical minerals to the United States.

特朗普曾宣布对中国进口商品征收高额关税（由美国企业承担），但在中国威胁停止向美国出口经过加工的关键矿产后，他又暂停了这些关税措施。

Mr. Trump also imposed tariffs on Asian allies, straining those relationships.

特朗普还对亚洲盟友征收关税，导致这些国家与美国的关系陷入紧张。

What’s more, Mr. Trump refrained from publicly supporting Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, when she signaled in November that Japan might deploy its military if China tried to blockade or invade Taiwan. Last Thursday, Ms. Takaichi widened her eyes in the Oval Office when Mr. Trump cracked a joke about why he did not inform Japan of his plans to attack Iran on Feb. 28.

此外，当日本首相高市早苗在去年11月暗示，如果中国试图封锁或入侵台湾，日本可能会部署自卫队时，特朗普并未公开表示支持。上周四，当特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室开玩笑解释为何未提前告知日本其2月28日袭击伊朗的计划时，高市早苗不禁瞪大了眼睛。

“We wanted surprise,” he said. “Who knows better about surprise than Japan, OK? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK? Right?”

“我们要的就是出其不意，”他说。“谁比日本更懂出其不意呢，对吧？珍珠港事件，你们怎么没提前告诉我？对吧？”

‘A Weaker Hand With Beijing’

“对北京的筹码变弱”

The war in Iran has been a shock to Asian economies. U.S. partners and allies are grappling with plummeting oil and gas supplies caused by the shutdown of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Stock markets have fallen.

伊朗战争给亚洲的经济体造成了巨大冲击。由于霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输中断导致石油和天然气供应骤减，美国的合作伙伴和盟友正在苦苦应对。股市也随之下跌。

Meanwhile, governments are watching the United States redirect military resources to the Middle East: an aircraft carrier strike group, a contingent of up to 2,500 Marines from Okinawa and parts of a missile defense system called THAAD in South Korea. The Pentagon is also diverting some Patriot interceptor missiles from Asia for use against Iran.

与此同时，各国政府正目睹美国将军事资源调往中东：一个航母打击群、一支来自冲绳的约2500人的海军陆战队分遣队，以及部署在韩国的部分“萨德”导弹防御系统。五角大楼还将部分原本部署在亚洲“爱国者”拦截导弹用于应对伊朗。

The United States is burning through munitions — an estimated $5.6 billion worth in the first two days of the war alone — and it could take years to replenish stockpiles.

美国的军火正在迅速消耗——仅战争头两天就消耗了价值约56亿美元的弹药——而补充军火库可能需要数年时间。

去年，美国海军陆战队在日本冲绳进行训练演习。美国正将军事资源从亚洲调往中东。

“Taking the risk of causing a much broader war in the Middle East and getting the U.S. potentially bogged down as we were in Iraq, that’s not what our allies really want to see,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, the managing director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund. “They view this as probably very detrimental to their security interests.”

“冒着引发更大规模中东战争的风险，让美国像当年在伊拉克那样可能陷入泥潭，这绝不是我们的盟友愿意看到的，”德国马歇尔基金会亚洲项目执行主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)表示。“他们认为这严重损害了自身的安全利益。”

Chinese officials are weighing how their country might benefit from what they see as Mr. Trump’s missteps. Some officials are no doubt anxious about energy markets, but Iran continues to ship oil to Chinese companies, and the global economic turmoil could mean Mr. Trump is less likely to reopen his trade war with China or take other disruptive actions.

中国官员也在评估他们认为特朗普的失误可能如何让中国受益。一些官员无疑对能源市场感到担忧，但伊朗仍在向中国企业出口石油，而全球经济动荡可能意味着特朗普不太可能重启对华贸易战，或采取其他具有破坏性的行动。

“The prolongment of war with Iran will cause Trump to have to play a weaker hand with Beijing,” said Ryan Hass, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who was a career diplomat posted to China and a White House national security official. “He simply has less space to credibly threaten Beijing that he will escalate if his demands are not met.”

布鲁金斯学会学者、曾作为职业外交官派驻中国并担任白宫国家安全官员的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)表示：“与伊朗的战争拖得越久，特朗普在与北京博弈时的筹码就越弱。如果他的要求得不到满足，他根本没有足够的空间向北京发出可信的升级威胁。”

Yun Sun, a scholar at the Stimson Center in Washington who is visiting China, said that “a prevailing Chinese assessment is President Trump miscalculated the outcome of the war before he launched it.” Beijing prefers not to get deeply involved, she added, and is not discussing sending military forces to the region, as Mr. Trump had requested.

华盛顿史汀生中心学者、目前正在中国访问的孙韵表示：“中国国内一个普遍的判断是，特朗普在发动这场战争前误判了其结果。”她还说，北京并不希望深度介入，也没有在讨论应特朗普要求向该地区派遣军队的事宜。

However, China watching American aggression from afar could have its drawbacks. The aloofness limits the country’s diplomatic stature and means it has less power to shape outcomes. In 2023, China played a guarantor role when it helped to finalize a diplomatic reopening between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but it has done little during this war to try to bring about a cease-fire.

然而，中国远观美国的军事打击也可能存在弊端。这种置身事外的态度限制了其外交地位，也意味着其在塑造局势方面的影响力较小。2023年，中国在促成伊朗与沙特阿拉伯外交复交中扮演了担保方角色，但在此次战争期间，中国几乎没有采取任何行动来推动停火。

“China’s credibility as an ally of both Iran and Venezuela has been called into question,” said R. Nicholas Burns, the ambassador to China in the Biden administration. “It has not mounted anything close to an effective diplomatic response to defend either. China had boasted it was becoming a power player in the Middle East in recent years but has been left on the sidelines in the recent crisis.”

“作为伊朗和委内瑞拉的盟友，中国的可信度受到了质疑，”拜登政府时期的美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯说。“它并未做出任何可以称得上有效的外交回应来捍卫其中任何一方。中国近年来自诩正在成为中东事务的重要参与者，但在最近的危机中，它却被边缘化了。”

At the start of the year, the Russian economy looked to be giving way. Under the strain of war and sanctions, revenues were falling, production was shrinking and trade was running low. With rising tariffs, credit was prohibitively expensive and borrowing all but impossible: A wave of bankruptcies was on the horizon. In late January, Russia was forced to sell oil to India at just $22 per barrel, about a third of the market rate. As a symbol of unsustainability, it was hard to beat.

今年年初，俄罗斯经济一度濒临崩溃。在战争与制裁的双重压力下，财政收入下滑、生产萎缩、贸易低迷。关税不断上涨的同时，信贷成本高得令人望而却步，借贷渠道几乎完全断绝，破产浪潮一触即发。1月下旬，俄罗斯被迫以每桶仅22美元的价格向印度出售石油，约为市场价的三分之一。这极具象征意义，充分说明经济已难以为继。

President Vladimir Putin has heard such complaints throughout the war. Yet, according to those around him, he has chosen largely not to listen. Officials and business leaders, for their part, understood that the continuation of the war was his absolute priority and that the country’s economic situation was of little consequence. But in February something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict.

战争期间，普京总统多次听到此类抱怨，但据身边人士透露，他基本选择置之不理。官员与商界领袖也明白，继续战争是他的绝对优先事项，国家经济状况则无足轻重。但到了2月，情况出现转变。普京突然开始关注疲软的经济，甚至有迹象表明，他可能在对乌谈判问题上改变想法，寻求为冲突找到出路。

Then came the war in Iran. In one swoop, the conditions for conciliation were overturned. Amid buoyant oil prices, Western division and American overreach, the pressure on Mr. Putin to come to terms ebbed away. By a strange twist of history, the start of the war in Iran halted the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine — at the very moment when Mr. Putin appeared ready to consider it.

随后，伊朗战争爆发。一夜之间，谈判和解的条件彻底逆转。油价高涨、西方阵营分裂、美国过度扩张，迫使普京妥协的压力大幅消退。历史上演了离奇转折：就在普京看似准备考虑结束俄乌冲突之际，伊朗战争的爆发却扼杀了这一可能性。

In February, Mr. Putin seemed ready to change course and overhaul his negotiating team. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s chief envoy who is widely seen as an insubstantial figure with no real mandate, was reportedly on the verge of dismissal. The leading candidate to replace him was Igor Sechin, the head of the state oil giant Rosneft. Regarded as Mr. Putin’s right-hand man, Mr. Sechin previously oversaw Russia’s relationships with Latin America, as well as the cultivation of close relationships with American oil executives. Here was an indication that Mr. Putin might begin to take talks seriously.

2月时，普京似乎准备调整路线，重组谈判团队。据报道，被普遍认为缺乏实权、象征意义大于实际作用的克里姆林宫首席特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫即将被解职。接替他的头号人选是国有石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司总裁伊戈尔·谢钦。作为普京的核心亲信，谢钦曾负责俄罗斯与拉美国家关系，并与美国石油高管建立密切联系。这一信号表明，普京可能开始认真对待谈判。

At the same time, rumors began circulating of an imminent large-scale reshuffle of the Russian government. If Mr. Putin were to engage properly in negotiations and pursue peace with Ukraine, he would have to entirely rebuild the structure of power. According to people close to the Kremlin, that could include dismissing the current government. Clouds had already begun to gather over Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin: Individuals close to him have recently become defendants in criminal cases.

与此同时，有关俄罗斯政府即将大规模改组的传言开始流传。若普京真想认真谈判、与乌克兰达成和平，就必须彻底重构权力架构。据接近克里姆林宫的人士透露，这可能包括解散现政府。总理米哈伊尔·米舒斯京的处境已岌岌可危：其亲信近期接连成为刑事案件被告。

We will never know what might have happened. On Feb. 28, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli attack; in the days that followed, everything changed. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel and, in a major reversal, the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil. Demand soared for Russian fertilizer as the world reeled from disruptions to food supply. All of a sudden, the economic problems bedeviling Russia seemed to evaporate.

我们永远无法知道事情原本可能的走向。2月28日，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在美以联合袭击中身亡；随后几天，局势彻底逆转。油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，美国更是出人意料地解除了对俄罗斯石油的制裁。随着全球因粮食供应中断而动荡，对俄罗斯化肥的需求暴涨。一时间，困扰俄罗斯的经济难题似乎烟消云散。

What’s more, divisions deepened between the United States and its NATO allies, who refused to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump called it a “very foolish mistake.” For Mr. Putin, whose foreign policy has been built around cultivating disorder in the West, this was welcome. Equally important is the absorption of America’s attention in the Middle East, pushing Ukraine far from mind. It’s not just attention that is being diverted: The United States is burning through weaponry and ammunition that could otherwise be sent to Ukraine.

更重要的是，美国与其北约盟友之间的分歧加剧，欧洲国家拒绝向霍尔木兹海峡派遣军舰。特朗普总统称这是“非常愚蠢的错误”。对于以在西方制造混乱为外交政策核心的普京而言，这无疑是利好消息。同样关键的是，美国注意力被中东牢牢吸引，乌克兰问题被抛诸脑后。被转移的不只是注意力：美国正在大量消耗本可援助乌克兰的武器与弹药。

In America, too, the Kremlin spies an advantage. It’s not hard to see how a protracted conflict with Iran could erode Mr. Trump’s political standing and weaken the Republican Party, making the upcoming midterm elections especially precarious. This reinforces Mr. Putin’s conviction about the transience of American politics. Mr. Trump, like any American president, is a temporary figure: A new administration will eventually arrive, potentially with a very different approach to Russia. The war in Iran may hasten that shift. In this view, concessions on Ukraine would be pointless.

克里姆林宫同样看到了美国内部的可乘之机。不难预见，与伊朗的长期冲突可能侵蚀特朗普的政治地位，削弱共和党，让即将到来的中期选举充满变数。这进一步强化了普京的判断：美国政治具有高度不稳定性。与历任美国总统一样，特朗普只是过渡性人物，新政府迟早上台，对俄政策可能截然不同。伊朗战争可能加速这一更迭。在这种逻辑下，在乌克兰问题上做出让步毫无意义。

These are all considerable boons for the Kremlin. But the money now flooding into Russia is by no means a guarantee that Mr. Putin will be able to continue the war indefinitely. On the contrary, some close to the government believe that the current situation will be short-lived. By May, many in Moscow expect, the war in Iran could be over and sanctions against Russia reinstated. For the troubled Russian economy, there is no permanent salvation.

这一切对克里姆林宫而言都是重大利好。但涌入俄罗斯的资金绝不能保证普京能够无限期延续战争。相反，一些接近政府的人士认为，当前局面只不会持续太久。莫斯科许多人预计，到5月，伊朗战争可能结束，对俄制裁或将重新生效。对于陷入困境的俄罗斯经济而言，没有永久的救赎。

The situation inside Russia is becoming turbulent, too. Ahead of parliamentary elections this fall, the Kremlin is in a state of near-paranoid anticipation, nervously flip-flopping on plans to stuff Parliament with veterans and dealing harshly with a pro-regime blogger who publicly turned on Mr. Putin. It has moved to block Telegram, the country’s most widely used messaging platform, while internet outages are becoming increasingly frequent in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The rumors of sweeping government reshuffles have not gone away.

俄罗斯国内局势也日趋动荡。今年秋季议会选举在即，克里姆林宫陷入近乎偏执的焦虑，在议会安插退伍老兵的计划上反复摇摆，对一名公开反水的亲政权博主严厉打压。当局已着手封锁俄罗斯使用最广泛的即时通讯平台Telegram，莫斯科与圣彼得堡的网络中断事件也愈发频繁。政府大规模改组的传言仍未消散。

A level of public discontent that until recently would have been unthinkable is now part of daily life. Before too long, it seems, Mr. Putin will have to make a consequential choice: either agree to some form of de-escalation in Ukraine, potentially including an end to the war, or move in the opposite direction — tightening controls across the board, even to the point of a new mobilization. It’s impossible to predict what decision Mr. Putin will make. But a large factor will be whether America continues in its own war.

不久前还难以想象的民众不满情绪，如今已成为日常生活的一部分。似乎用不了多久，普京就必须做出重大抉择：要么同意乌克兰问题上的某种缓和方案，甚至可能结束战争；要么走向相反方向——全面收紧管控，甚至启动新一轮动员。无法预测普京会做何决定，但美国是否继续深陷伊朗战争将是一个重要的影响因素。