At the start of the year, the Russian economy looked to be giving way. Under the strain of war and sanctions, revenues were falling, production was shrinking and trade was running low. With rising tariffs, credit was prohibitively expensive and borrowing all but impossible: A wave of bankruptcies was on the horizon. In late January, Russia was forced to sell oil to India at just $22 per barrel, about a third of the market rate. As a symbol of unsustainability, it was hard to beat.

今年年初，俄罗斯经济一度濒临崩溃。在战争与制裁的双重压力下，财政收入下滑、生产萎缩、贸易低迷。关税不断上涨的同时，信贷成本高得令人望而却步，借贷渠道几乎完全断绝，破产浪潮一触即发。1月下旬，俄罗斯被迫以每桶仅22美元的价格向印度出售石油，约为市场价的三分之一。这极具象征意义，充分说明经济已难以为继。

President Vladimir Putin has heard such complaints throughout the war. Yet, according to those around him, he has chosen largely not to listen. Officials and business leaders, for their part, understood that the continuation of the war was his absolute priority and that the country’s economic situation was of little consequence. But in February something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict.

战争期间，普京总统多次听到此类抱怨，但据身边人士透露，他基本选择置之不理。官员与商界领袖也明白，继续战争是他的绝对优先事项，国家经济状况则无足轻重。但到了2月，情况出现转变。普京突然开始关注疲软的经济，甚至有迹象表明，他可能在对乌谈判问题上改变想法，寻求为冲突找到出路。

Then came the war in Iran. In one swoop, the conditions for conciliation were overturned. Amid buoyant oil prices, Western division and American overreach, the pressure on Mr. Putin to come to terms ebbed away. By a strange twist of history, the start of the war in Iran halted the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine — at the very moment when Mr. Putin appeared ready to consider it.

随后，伊朗战争爆发。一夜之间，谈判和解的条件彻底逆转。油价高涨、西方阵营分裂、美国过度扩张，迫使普京妥协的压力大幅消退。历史上演了离奇转折：就在普京看似准备考虑结束俄乌冲突之际，伊朗战争的爆发却扼杀了这一可能性。

In February, Mr. Putin seemed ready to change course and overhaul his negotiating team. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s chief envoy who is widely seen as an insubstantial figure with no real mandate, was reportedly on the verge of dismissal. The leading candidate to replace him was Igor Sechin, the head of the state oil giant Rosneft. Regarded as Mr. Putin’s right-hand man, Mr. Sechin previously oversaw Russia’s relationships with Latin America, as well as the cultivation of close relationships with American oil executives. Here was an indication that Mr. Putin might begin to take talks seriously.

2月时，普京似乎准备调整路线，重组谈判团队。据报道，被普遍认为缺乏实权、象征意义大于实际作用的克里姆林宫首席特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫即将被解职。接替他的头号人选是国有石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司总裁伊戈尔·谢钦。作为普京的核心亲信，谢钦曾负责俄罗斯与拉美国家关系，并与美国石油高管建立密切联系。这一信号表明，普京可能开始认真对待谈判。

At the same time, rumors began circulating of an imminent large-scale reshuffle of the Russian government. If Mr. Putin were to engage properly in negotiations and pursue peace with Ukraine, he would have to entirely rebuild the structure of power. According to people close to the Kremlin, that could include dismissing the current government. Clouds had already begun to gather over Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin: Individuals close to him have recently become defendants in criminal cases.

与此同时，有关俄罗斯政府即将大规模改组的传言开始流传。若普京真想认真谈判、与乌克兰达成和平，就必须彻底重构权力架构。据接近克里姆林宫的人士透露，这可能包括解散现政府。总理米哈伊尔·米舒斯京的处境已岌岌可危：其亲信近期接连成为刑事案件被告。

We will never know what might have happened. On Feb. 28, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli attack; in the days that followed, everything changed. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel and, in a major reversal, the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil. Demand soared for Russian fertilizer as the world reeled from disruptions to food supply. All of a sudden, the economic problems bedeviling Russia seemed to evaporate.

我们永远无法知道事情原本可能的走向。2月28日，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在美以联合袭击中身亡；随后几天，局势彻底逆转。油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，美国更是出人意料地解除了对俄罗斯石油的制裁。随着全球因粮食供应中断而动荡，对俄罗斯化肥的需求暴涨。一时间，困扰俄罗斯的经济难题似乎烟消云散。

What’s more, divisions deepened between the United States and its NATO allies, who refused to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump called it a “very foolish mistake.” For Mr. Putin, whose foreign policy has been built around cultivating disorder in the West, this was welcome. Equally important is the absorption of America’s attention in the Middle East, pushing Ukraine far from mind. It’s not just attention that is being diverted: The United States is burning through weaponry and ammunition that could otherwise be sent to Ukraine.

更重要的是，美国与其北约盟友之间的分歧加剧，欧洲国家拒绝向霍尔木兹海峡派遣军舰。特朗普总统称这是“非常愚蠢的错误”。对于以在西方制造混乱为外交政策核心的普京而言，这无疑是利好消息。同样关键的是，美国注意力被中东牢牢吸引，乌克兰问题被抛诸脑后。被转移的不只是注意力：美国正在大量消耗本可援助乌克兰的武器与弹药。

In America, too, the Kremlin spies an advantage. It’s not hard to see how a protracted conflict with Iran could erode Mr. Trump’s political standing and weaken the Republican Party, making the upcoming midterm elections especially precarious. This reinforces Mr. Putin’s conviction about the transience of American politics. Mr. Trump, like any American president, is a temporary figure: A new administration will eventually arrive, potentially with a very different approach to Russia. The war in Iran may hasten that shift. In this view, concessions on Ukraine would be pointless.

克里姆林宫同样看到了美国内部的可乘之机。不难预见，与伊朗的长期冲突可能侵蚀特朗普的政治地位，削弱共和党，让即将到来的中期选举充满变数。这进一步强化了普京的判断：美国政治具有高度不稳定性。与历任美国总统一样，特朗普只是过渡性人物，新政府迟早上台，对俄政策可能截然不同。伊朗战争可能加速这一更迭。在这种逻辑下，在乌克兰问题上做出让步毫无意义。

These are all considerable boons for the Kremlin. But the money now flooding into Russia is by no means a guarantee that Mr. Putin will be able to continue the war indefinitely. On the contrary, some close to the government believe that the current situation will be short-lived. By May, many in Moscow expect, the war in Iran could be over and sanctions against Russia reinstated. For the troubled Russian economy, there is no permanent salvation.

这一切对克里姆林宫而言都是重大利好。但涌入俄罗斯的资金绝不能保证普京能够无限期延续战争。相反，一些接近政府的人士认为，当前局面只不会持续太久。莫斯科许多人预计，到5月，伊朗战争可能结束，对俄制裁或将重新生效。对于陷入困境的俄罗斯经济而言，没有永久的救赎。

The situation inside Russia is becoming turbulent, too. Ahead of parliamentary elections this fall, the Kremlin is in a state of near-paranoid anticipation, nervously flip-flopping on plans to stuff Parliament with veterans and dealing harshly with a pro-regime blogger who publicly turned on Mr. Putin. It has moved to block Telegram, the country’s most widely used messaging platform, while internet outages are becoming increasingly frequent in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The rumors of sweeping government reshuffles have not gone away.

俄罗斯国内局势也日趋动荡。今年秋季议会选举在即，克里姆林宫陷入近乎偏执的焦虑，在议会安插退伍老兵的计划上反复摇摆，对一名公开反水的亲政权博主严厉打压。当局已着手封锁俄罗斯使用最广泛的即时通讯平台Telegram，莫斯科与圣彼得堡的网络中断事件也愈发频繁。政府大规模改组的传言仍未消散。

A level of public discontent that until recently would have been unthinkable is now part of daily life. Before too long, it seems, Mr. Putin will have to make a consequential choice: either agree to some form of de-escalation in Ukraine, potentially including an end to the war, or move in the opposite direction — tightening controls across the board, even to the point of a new mobilization. It’s impossible to predict what decision Mr. Putin will make. But a large factor will be whether America continues in its own war.

不久前还难以想象的民众不满情绪，如今已成为日常生活的一部分。似乎用不了多久，普京就必须做出重大抉择：要么同意乌克兰问题上的某种缓和方案，甚至可能结束战争；要么走向相反方向——全面收紧管控，甚至启动新一轮动员。无法预测普京会做何决定，但美国是否继续深陷伊朗战争将是一个重要的影响因素。

Hundreds of oil tankers are idling at either end of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, responding to attacks by the United States and Israel, has effectively blockaded it.

数百艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡的两侧停航滞航观望。伊朗已实际封锁了该海峡，以回应美国和以色列的袭击。

As soaring oil prices rattle the global economy, President Trump has vowed to reopen the shipping route “one way or another.” But short of a deal with Iran or a dangerous, prolonged occupation, experts warn, it will be hard to fully restore traffic in the strait.

随着油价飙升震动全球经济，特朗普总统誓言“无论如何”要重新开放这条航道。但专家警告，除非与伊朗达成协议，或采取危险且漫长的占领行动，否则难以完全恢复海峡的通航。

Here’s why.

原因如下。

Geography is strategy

地理即战略

The strait is narrow and shallow, forcing ships within miles of Iran’s mountainous shores, a landscape that favors asymmetric warfare tactics, in which Iran uses weapons that are small, widely dispersed and hard for adversaries to eliminate completely.

霍尔木兹海峡狭窄而水浅，迫使船只行驶在距伊朗多山海岸线仅数英里的范围内。这种地形有利于非对称作战战术，即伊朗可以使用广泛分布且难以被对手完全清除的小型武器。

Sources: GEBCO (water depth); Vantor (satellite imagery). The New York Times

“The Iranians have thought a lot about how to utilize the geography to their benefit,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies Gulf security issues.

Ripe, creamy avocados are great on toast, salads and burgers, or just sprinkled with salt. Plus, they’re healthy — but how healthy?

软熟的牛油果口感绵密，非常适合搭配吐司、沙拉和汉堡，或者简单撒点盐直接食用。而且它们对健康有益——但究竟有多健康呢？

“Avocados are no regular fruits,” said Dr. Frank Hu, a professor of nutrition and epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “They’re nutrient dense with very little carbohydrates and high amounts of healthy fats and fiber.” And they make plant-based meals more filling.

“牛油果可不是普通水果，”哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院营养与流行病学教授胡丙长博士说，“它们营养密度高，碳水化合物含量很低，同时富含健康脂肪和膳食纤维。”此外，它们还能让植物性饮食更具饱腹感。

Here are some of their healthiest attributes, plus a selection of recipes from New York Times Cooking to inspire you to eat them more often.

以下是牛油果的一些主要益处，以及《纽约时报》美食栏目精选的几道食谱，或许能激发你多吃牛油果。

Avocados can help keep your cholesterol in check.

牛油果有助于平衡胆固醇。

Avocados’ better-known benefits stem from their heart-healthy fats, said Elizabeth Klingbeil, a registered dietitian and assistant professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Most of the fats in avocados are monounsaturated, which differ from the saturated fats abundant in meats and dairy.

注册营养师、得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校助理教授伊丽莎白·克林贝尔表示，牛油果最广为人知的益处来自其对心脏有益的脂肪。牛油果中的脂肪大多是单不饱和脂肪，与肉类和乳制品中富含的饱和脂肪不同。

“Saturated fats can gunk up your blood vessels and increase your heart disease risk,” Dr. Klingbeil said. If left unchecked, this gunk, called LDL or “bad” cholesterol, can lead to heart attacks or strokes.

“饱和脂肪酸会使血管堵塞，增加患心脏病的风险，”克林贝尔博士说。如果任其发展，这种被称为低密度脂蛋白（即“坏胆固醇”）的物质可能导致心脏病发作或中风。

While saturated fats increase LDL cholesterol, unsaturated fats can lower it. For this reason, avocados can help manage blood cholesterol levels, especially when you eat them in place of foods like meat, cheese and butter.

饱和脂肪会增加低密度脂蛋白胆固醇，不饱和脂肪则能降低它。因此，牛油果有助于控制血液中的胆固醇水平，尤其是在你用它替代肉类、奶酪和黄油等食物的时候。

They may lower your heart disease risk.

它们或许还能降低患心脏病的风险。

In a study that followed more than 110,000 adults over 30 years, Dr. Hu and his colleagues showed that people who ate at least two servings of avocado per week had a 21 percent lower risk of coronary heart disease.

在一项追踪超过11万名成年人长达30年的研究中，胡博士及其同事发现，每周至少食用两份牛油果梨的人患冠状动脉疾病的风险降低了21%。

The researchers used statistics to account for other factors that could have affected people’s heart health. Still, Dr. Hu said, it’s impossible to say if avocados directly reduced the risk.

研究人员通过统计方法排除了其他可能影响心脏健康的因素。不过，胡博士表示，仍无法断定牛油果是否直接降低了这一风险。

Bobbi Lin for The New York Times

Zeroing in on one food as the cause of health outcomes is challenging, explained Dr. Martin Kohlmeier, a professor at the University of North Carolina Nutrition Research Institute.

There are two obvious reasons to have a nuclear weapon. The first is to dominate or overawe your nonnuclear-armed neighbors, to make them submit to you because they fear incineration at your hands. The second is defensive — to deter a more powerful enemy from attacking you, to persuade them that the price of their victory will be too awful to be borne.

拥核的理由显而易见，主要有两点。其一是为了支配或震慑无核邻国，让它们因惧怕被你毁灭，从而俯首称臣。其二则是出于防御目的——威慑更强大的敌人不敢发动攻击，让对方明白，胜利的代价将惨烈到无法承受。

The American and Israeli war against Iran is motivated by a fear of the first scenario — a Middle East remade by Iranian nuclear blackmail. But the conflict to date has made the second scenario more relevant, by demonstrating that Iran already possesses a kind of nuclear-esque deterrent, a credible threat of mass destruction that may place limits on what its opponents can reasonably risk.

美国与以色列对伊朗发动的战争，正是出于担忧第一种局面出现：一个被伊朗核讹诈重塑的中东。但迄今为止的冲突反而让第二种情景更具现实意义，它表明伊朗已然拥有一种类核威慑力，一种足以造成大规模毁灭的可信威胁，这可能会限制其对手所能承担的合理风险。

Unlike North Korea, the Iranian regime does not have a brace of nuclear warheads with which to keep America at bay. But it has an escalatory power that was unavailable to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi in their fateful conflicts with the United States. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting damage to global energy markets, is the first great escalatory move. The threat to go all out to destroy the larger infrastructure of the Persian Gulf, from refineries to desalinization plants, is the second — usable only in extremis, as an act of murder-suicide, but still a potent threat from a regime facing existential defeat.

与朝鲜不同，伊朗政权并未拥有足以让美国不敢轻举妄动的核弹头储备。但它拥有萨达姆·侯赛因与穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲在与美国的决定性冲突中所不具备的升级能力。封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并由此重创全球能源市场，这是伊朗第一个重大升级举措。威胁全力摧毁波斯湾地区从炼油厂到海水淡化厂的大型基础设施则是第二个——这一手段仅会在绝境中使用，近乎同归于尽的自杀式行为，但对于一个面临存亡危机的政权而言，仍是极具威力的威胁。

The central problem with our strategy is that it has placed the Iranian government in exactly that kind of existentially threatened position, through a decapitation campaign designed to create regime change, without yet delivering the desired political revolution. So long as the regime survives and the war continues, the Iranian government can make unusually credible apocalyptic threats, because we ourselves have put them in a position in which apocalyptic moves are rational.

我们当前战略的核心问题在于，它已将伊朗政府置于这种生死存亡的境地。我们旨在实现政权更迭的斩首行动未能达成预期的政治革命。只要伊朗政权存续、战争仍在持续，伊朗政府就能发出异常可信的末日式威胁，因为正是我们自己，将他们逼到了即使采取此类极端行动也显得合乎理性的地步。

This was not the case with earlier U.S. strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. It wouldn’t be the case if we were merely striking its military infrastructure. But it is an inevitable consequence of leading with decapitation efforts, which leaves the targeted regime with every incentive to make extreme, even nuclear-scale moves that would be irrational in other contexts.

美国此前针对伊朗核计划的打击并非如此，若我们仅打击其军事基础设施，也不会出现这种局面。但以斩首行动为先导，必然会导致这一结果——它让被打击的政权有充分动机采取极端行动，甚至堪比核规模的行动，而这样的行动在其他情境下本是不理性的。

There are limits, of course, to the nuclear analogy. Iran’s ability to wreak havoc does not depend upon a single weapon used for instantaneous destruction but on a set of distributed capacities with compounding effects, from the missile launchers required to target its gulf neighbors to the physical control of territory around the Strait of Hormuz.

当然，这种类核类比存在局限。伊朗制造大混乱的能力并非依赖单一武器实现瞬间毁灭，而是依托一系列分散部署、效果叠加的能力，从可打击海湾邻国的导弹发射装置，到对霍尔木兹海峡周边领土的实际控制。

The Hormuz weapon takes time to make itself felt, the missile launchers are vulnerable to air power, and so the potency of the Iranian deterrent can be reduced by attrition. Weaponry can be destroyed and territory can be captured, and at some point a combination of nonexistential military moves could theoretically make the existential threat more manageable, mitigate the potential economic damage and reduce Iran’s escalatory power. (All while leaving open the hope that regime change could come to fruition along the way.)

霍尔木兹这一武器的威力需要时间显现，导弹发射装置也易受空中打击，因此伊朗的威慑力可以通过消耗战来削弱。武器准备可被摧毁，领土可被占领。理论上，通过一系列非致命性军事行动的组合或许能在某一节点让这种生存威胁变得更可控，减轻潜在经济损失，并削弱伊朗的升级能力。（同时，仍可寄望于政权更迭能在此过程中实现。）

This is the kind of war some hawks want the Trump administration to fight, with ground troops and expeditionary forces achieving by degrees what can’t be achieved immediately. And, interestingly, there’s a convergence between these hawks and some of the war’s critics, who argue that if the United States doesn’t choose to fight this way — if we don’t have U.S. Marines capturing territory around the strait, if we don’t permanently eliminate the Iranian threat to set the Persian Gulf ablaze — then we will have to accept an epochal defeat, in which Iran emerges as a new regional hegemon, like Paul Atreides in “Dune” becoming emperor after he threatened to destroy the spice of Arrakis and wreck galactic civilization.

这正是部分鹰派人士希望特朗普政府打的那种战争：动用地面部队与远征军，逐步达成无法一蹴而就的目标。耐人寻味的是，这些鹰派与部分战争批评者的观点不谋而合。后者认为，如果美国不选择这种作战方式——不派海军陆战队夺取海峡周边领土，不彻底消除伊朗点燃波斯湾的威胁——那么我们就将不得不接受一场划时代的失败：届时伊朗将崛起为新的地区霸主，就像《沙丘》中的保罗·阿崔迪，在威胁摧毁厄拉科斯星球的香料、破坏银河文明后登基称帝。

I am somewhat skeptical that Iran is about to have its Paul Atreides moment. No Iranian leader is a psychic messiah figure (to my knowledge), Iran’s conventional forces are hardly an all-conquering army, and geopolitics doesn’t usually work like a science fiction plot device. Everyone knows that Kim Jong-un has the power to set his region ablaze, but that hasn’t made Kim a potential god-emperor of Asia; it just makes the North Korean regime unusually hard to attack.

我对伊朗即将迎来“保罗·阿崔迪时刻”持怀疑态度。据我所知，没有任何伊朗领导人是具有超能力的救世主；伊朗的常规部队远非战无不胜的铁军；地缘政治的运作逻辑通常也不像科幻小说的情节设定。众所周知，金正恩有能力让所在地区陷入火海，但这并未让他成为亚洲的潜在神帝，只是让朝鲜政权变得异常难以攻克。

Similarly, if the United States backs off from the decapitation campaign and returns to diplomacy, Iran’s threats against the region and the global economy will become less credible than they are when it has its back against the wall. America’s conventional military advantage will endure, meaning that we will be able to inflict renewed pain on Iran if it tries to make economic blackmail permanent. And Tehran’s willingness to threaten doomsday against its neighbors is more likely to increase its own long-term isolation than it is to encourage those neighbors to bandwagon with the Islamic republic.

同理，如果美国放弃斩首行动、重返外交轨道，伊朗对地区与全球经济的威胁将不再像其被逼入绝境时那般可行。美国的常规军事优势将持续存在，这意味着若伊朗试图将经济讹诈常态化，我们仍能对其实施新一轮打击。而且，德黑兰动辄以末日威胁邻国的做法更可能加剧其自身的长期孤立，而非促使邻国倒向这个伊斯兰共和国。

Which is not to say the de-escalation will be costless for the United States, or that an armistice short of regime change won’t represent a limited defeat for American power. But contrary to some doomsayers, America is strong enough and insulated enough to absorb a strategic disappointment. And letting President Trump spin that kind of disappointment as a grand success might be acceptable if the alternative isn’t the coup de main he plainly hoped for, but a land war in Asia conducted in the shadow of a global economic rout.

这并非意味着缓和局势对美国来说毫无代价，也并非意味着不导致政权更迭的停战协议不会对美国实力造成有限的打击。。但与一些末日预言者的论调相反，美国足够强大、也具备足够缓冲能力，足以承受一次战略上的失望。而且，如果摆在面前的选项并不是特朗普原本期望的速战速决，而是全球经济崩溃的阴影下的亚洲地面战争，那么，哪怕让特朗普将这种失望包装成巨大的成功或许也未尝不可接受。

South Korea started a nationwide energy-saving campaign on Tuesday, urging people to take shorter showers, ride bicycles for short trips and avoid charging phones and electric vehicles at night.

韩国周二启动了全民节能行动，呼吁民众缩短淋浴时间、短途出行骑自行车，并避免在夜间给手机和电动汽车充电。

Like other nations, South Korea has become increasingly concerned about disruptions to oil and gas supplies because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The country imports all of its oil and gas. Nearly 70 percent of its crude oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran, until the war brought that tanker traffic to a near standstill.

与其他国家一样，由于美以对伊朗的战争引发的石油和天然气供应中断，韩国的担忧日益加剧。它的石油和天然气全部依赖进口。战前，其近70%的原油供应需经由毗邻伊朗的霍尔木兹海峡运输，而战争几乎使油轮运输陷入停滞。

Rising oil prices and South Korea’s weakening won against the dollar are dealing a double blow to its economy, which depends heavily on its energy-intensive manufacturing industries.

油价上涨以及韩元对美元走弱对严重依赖能源密集型制造业的韩国经济造成了双重打击。

Presiding over a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, President Lee Jae Myung appealed to the public to join a national 12-step drive to save energy. He invoked the patriotism South Koreans showed during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, when families sold necklaces and other gold jewelry to help raise badly needed hard currency, and during the pandemic, when people faithfully followed government-imposed social distancing and Covid testing rules.

韩国总统李在明在周二主持内阁会议时，呼吁公众加入一个包含了12项措施的全民节能行动。他提及韩国民众在上世纪90年代末亚洲金融危机期间表现出的爱国精神——当时许多家庭出售项链等黄金饰品帮助国家筹集急需的硬通货；以及在疫情期间，人们严格遵守政府实施的社交距离和核酸检测规定。

“We desperately need the cooperation from the people,” he said. “We can surely overcome this crisis if we put our minds together.”

“我们迫切需要民众的配合，”他说。“只要大家齐心协力，我们一定能够渡过这场危机。”

The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment encouraged people to use washing machines and vacuum cleaners only on weekends, to switch to energy-efficient home appliances and lighting, and to use public transportation as much as possible. Such steps were voluntary.

韩国的气候能源环境部还鼓励民众仅在周末使用洗衣机和吸尘器，改用节能家电和照明设备，并尽可能多地使用公共交通。这些措施均为自愿性质。

For its part, the government said it would require all agencies to operate their vehicles only four out of five workdays. (For instance, government cars with license plate numbers that end with a 1 or 6 will be taken off the road on Mondays.)

韩国政府表示，将要求所有政府机构的公车在每周的五个工作日中仅四天上路。（例如，车牌尾号为1或6的公务车将在周一禁行。）

It asked the public to do the same, adding that restrictions on private vehicles could become mandatory should the energy crisis worsen.

政府还呼吁公众也采取类似做法，并表示如果能源危机进一步恶化，可能会对私家车实施强制性限制。

The government also said it would accelerate work on five of the 10 nuclear power plants currently under maintenance so they could restart them earlier. (It has 16 others operating now.)

政府同时表示，将加快目前处于维护状态的10座核电站中的五座的检修进度，以便及早重启。（目前还有另外16座在运行。）

Businesses were also asked to come up with conservation measures, such as turning office lights off during lunch breaks and encouraging workers to use the stairs instead of elevators.

政府还要求企业提出节能措施，例如在午休期间关闭办公室照明，并鼓励员工走楼梯取代乘坐电梯。

The government placed price caps on gasoline, diesel and heating kerosene on March 13 — the first time in 30 years. It also promised to create a supplementary budget worth $16.5 billion to ease the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and high oil prices, particularly on low-income households.

政府于3月13日对汽油、柴油和取暖用煤油设定了价格上限——这是30年来首次。政府还承诺将推出一项规模为165亿美元的补充预算，以缓解汇率波动和油价上涨的影响，尤其是对低收入家庭的冲击。

It also planned to distribute cash vouchers to all households to stimulate the local economy.

政府还计划向所有家庭发放现金消费券，以提振内需。

A Russian oil tanker possibly bound for Cuba is highlighting a key U.S. security concern: the communist island’s ties to foreign adversaries who use Cuba to spy on the United States.

一艘可能驶往古巴的俄罗斯油轮正凸显美国的一项重大安全关切：这个共产主义岛国与美国之敌的密切联系，这些国家会利用古巴对美国进行间谍活动。

In an executive order in January, President Trump declared a national emergency and listed several reasons he was acting to choke off Cuba’s oil imports. Near the top was his complaint that the country “blatantly” allows Russia and China to “base sophisticated military and intelligence capabilities” there that threaten U.S. national security.

特朗普总统在1月的行政命令中宣布进入国家紧急状态，并列出了他要切断古巴石油进口的几个理由。其中最主要的一条是他指责该国“公然”允许俄罗斯和中国在那里“部署先进的军事和情报能力”，这威胁到美国的国家安全。

Specifically, the order noted, Cuba “hosts Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility, which tries to steal sensitive national security information of the United States.”

行政命令特别指出，古巴“设有俄罗斯最大海外信号情报设施，该设施试图窃取美国的敏感国家安全信息”。

That is a reference to a Russian facility near Havana, established during the Cold War, that surveilled the United States for decades until it closed almost 25 years ago at a relatively warm moment in U.S.-Russian relations. But as tensions between Washington and Moscow froze over again, in 2014 Russia reopened the site, known as Lourdes.

这指的是哈瓦那附近的一个俄罗斯设施，建立于冷战时期，曾监视美国数十年，直到大约25年前美俄关系相对缓和时关闭。但随着华盛顿和莫斯科的关系再次冻结，2014年俄罗斯重新开放了这个被称为“洛尔德斯”的基地。

Former U.S. officials and experts say the base, which bristles with antennas and other eavesdropping equipment, is less sophisticated than China’s installations in Cuba. But it still puts Russian ears roughly 200 miles from the coast of Florida, which is home to several key U.S. military facilities, including Central Command, which oversees the Middle East; the satellite launchpads of Cape Canaveral; and Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and residence at Palm Beach.

美国前官员和专家表示，这个布满天线和其他窃听设备的基地不像中国在古巴设施那么精良。但它仍将俄罗斯的“耳朵”置于距离佛罗里达海岸约200英里的位置，而佛罗里达拥有多个关键的美国军事设施，包括负责中东事务的中央司令部、卡纳维拉尔角的卫星发射场，以及特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园和棕榈滩住所。

“What an unbelievably rich location,” said Glenn S. Gerstell, a former general counsel for the U.S. National Security Agency. “Who would think that sitting in Cuba you might learn about what we’re doing in the Middle East?”

“这是多么难以置信的绝佳位置啊，”美国国家安全局前总法律顾问格伦·S·格斯特尔说。“谁能想到坐在古巴就能了解到我们在中东的行动？”

Russia, China and Cuba have all denied the presence of foreign spy bases on the island.

俄罗斯、中国和古巴都否认岛上存在外国间谍基地。

Preserving Lourdes may be one reason President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia might risk angering Mr. Trump by shipping oil to Cuba, whose communist government is struggling to sustain the island’s frail economy after Mr. Trump forced its two main petroleum suppliers, Venezuela and Mexico, to halt their shipments earlier this year.

保留洛尔德斯基地可能是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京愿意冒险激怒特朗普、向古巴运送石油的原因之一。古巴的共产主义政府在特朗普今年早些时候迫使其两个主要石油供应国委内瑞拉和墨西哥停止供油后，正艰难维持这个岛国脆弱的经济。

The Kremlin has been coy in response to questions about whether a Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of crude oil across the North Atlantic is headed for Cuba. Analysts say that the ship’s cargo, on pace to arrive by the end of the month, could power the island for weeks.

在回应有关一艘载有73万桶原油、穿越北大西洋的俄罗斯油轮是否驶往古巴的问题时，克里姆林宫的态度暧昧。分析人士表示，该船货物按计划将在本月底前抵达，能够为古巴提供数周的电力。

Mr. Trump has spoken of using his economic leverage to mount a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and is pressing for the ouster of its president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. While Trump officials have not said whether they are demanding that the Cuban government expel Russian and Chinese operatives, Mr. Trump’s executive order indicates that the foreign bases are a high priority.

特朗普曾表示要利用其经济杠杆对古巴进行“友好接管”，并正在施压要求罢免古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔。虽然特朗普政府官员尚未说明是否要求古巴政府驱逐俄罗斯和中国的情报人员，但特朗普的行政命令表明，外国基地是高度优先事项。

And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is spearheading Mr. Trump’s Cuba policy, has long called the bases unacceptable. Asked in a 2016 Republican presidential primary debate to describe a “good” U.S. deal with Cuba, Mr. Rubio said it would mean in part that Havana “kicks out the Russians from Lourdes and kicks out the Chinese listening station in Bejucal.”

负责主导特朗普古巴政策的国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥长期以来一直称这些基地不可接受。在2016年共和党总统初选辩论中，当被问及与古巴达成一项“好的”协议意味着什么时，鲁比奥表示，这在一定程度上意味着哈瓦那“把俄罗斯人从洛尔德斯踢出去，并把中国在贝胡卡尔的监听站也踢出去”。

Bejucal is a hillside town about 20 miles south of Havana, from which satellite dishes can be seen rising from the tropical forest. Aerial photographs published and analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington show a sprawling compound that features large clearings dotted with antennas like candles on a birthday cake, several entrances to underground facilities and a radome, a weatherproof cover that protects sensitive equipment.

贝胡卡尔是哈瓦那以南约20英里的一个山坡小镇，从那里可以看到卫星天线从热带森林中升起。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)发布并分析的卫星图片显示，这是一个庞大的园区，里面有大片空地，点缀着像生日蛋糕上的蜡烛一样的天线，还有几个通往地下设施的入口，以及一个雷达罩——一种保护敏感设备的防风雨外壳。

2024年，位于哈瓦那以南的玛雅贝克省贝胡卡尔。

One of four suspected Chinese listening posts in Cuba, the Bejucal base was built more than a decade ago but has undergone recent improvements. After disclosures by The Wall Street Journal in 2023, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken confirmed that Beijing had upgraded the site in 2019, adding that the Biden administration had taken a “more direct” diplomatic approach on the matter in response.

作为古巴四个疑似中国监听站之一的贝胡卡尔基地于十多年前建成，但最近进行了升级。2023年《华尔街日报》披露后，时任国务卿安东尼·J·布林肯证实，北京在2019年对该站点进行了升级，并表示拜登政府对此采取了“更直接”的外交方式。

There is little evidence that China has backed down, however. At a House Homeland Security subcommittee hearing last year, the chairman, Republican Representative Carlos Gimenez of Florida, called the Chinese sites “one of the most brazen intelligence operations ever attempted near the American mainland.”

然而，几乎没有证据表明中国已经退让。在去年众议院国土安全小组委员会的听证会上，委员会主席、佛罗里达州共和党众议员卡洛斯·希门尼斯称这些中国站点是“有史以来美国本土附近进行的最大胆的情报行动之一”。

Mr. Gimenez added that a U.S. military training range in Florida, which he did not name, was “the only training range that actually can simulate battle in the Taiwan Straits” and therefore a prime target of Chinese interest.

希门尼斯还说，佛罗里达州的一个美国军事训练场（他未透露名称）是“唯一能够模拟台湾海峡实战的训练场”，因此成为中国关注的首要目标。

Ryan Berg, a co-author of the Center for Strategic and International Studies report, noted at the hearing that China — which is trying to catch up with a U.S. advantage in space rocket technology — would also have a strong interest in tracking satellite launches from Cape Canaveral.

战略与国际研究中心报告的合著者瑞安·伯格在听证会上指出，中国正试图赶超美国在太空火箭技术上的优势，因此对跟踪卡纳维拉尔角的卫星发射也会有强烈兴趣。

Other U.S. sites probably targeted by the Chinese from Cuba, according to discussions at the hearing, include the headquarters of U.S. Southern Command, which is near Miami and oversees military operations in South America.

根据听证会上的讨论，中国从古巴可能瞄准的其他美国目标还包括美国南方司令部的总部，该司令部位于迈阿密附近，负责南美洲的军事行动。

This is not the first time Bejucal has been a fixation for U.S. security officials. In October 1962, American spy planes buzzed the area after identifying its underground concrete bunkers as a likely storage site for Soviet nuclear warheads — the trigger for the Cuban Missile Crisis.

这并非贝胡卡尔第一次成为美国安全官员关注的焦点。1962年10月，美国间谍飞机在发现其地下混凝土掩体可能用于存放苏联核弹头后，对该地区进行了低空侦察——这正是古巴导弹危机的导火索。

But some analysts downplayed the threat of the foreign bases in Cuba, especially Lourdes. One former career U.S. intelligence official said they were not a top priority during his tenure. He also noted that even if Mr. Trump succeeded in forcing the Russian and Chinese bases to shut down, those countries would still operate diplomatic facilities on the island, which would most likely teem with covert eavesdropping equipment.

但一些分析人士对古巴外国基地的威胁不以为然，尤其是洛尔德斯基地。一位美国前职业情报官员表示，在他任职期间，这些基地并非工作重点。他还指出，即使特朗普成功迫使俄罗斯和中国的基地关闭，这些国家仍将在岛上保留外交设施，这些设施很可能布满秘密窃听设备。

William LeoGrande, a Latin America specialist at American University who has been critical of Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach to Cuba, said he was skeptical of the foreign intelligence threat from the island. Mr. LeoGrande said he has been told that the Russian base at Lourdes is “obsolete,” and questioned whether China’s outposts were as threatening as advertised. “It’s a predicate for saying Cuba’s a threat,” he said. “It’s a perfect excuse.”

美利坚大学拉丁美洲问题专家威廉·利昂格兰德长期批评特朗普对古巴的对抗性政策，他对来自该岛的外国情报威胁表示怀疑。利昂格兰德说，有人告诉他俄罗斯在洛尔德斯的基地已经“过时”，并质疑中国的哨站是否像宣传的那样具有威胁性。“这是说古巴构成威胁的一个前提，”他说。“这是一个完美的借口。”

Mr. Gerstell noted that spy equipment does not need to be state of the art to be effective. Even in an age of fiber optics and ultrapowerful satellites, local antennas are still “surprisingly relevant,” he said, adding that they can often pick up signals like walkie-talkie and other radio chatter more clearly than more advanced but more distant methods.

格斯特尔指出，间谍设备并不需要是最先进的才能发挥作用。即使在光纤和超强卫星的时代，本地天线仍然“惊人地有效”，他说，它们往往能比更先进但距离更远的方法更清晰地捕捉到对讲机和其他无线电通话。

Cuba has benefited financially from hosting China and Russia over the years, which in return have reportedly paid Havana or forgiven its debts to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.

这些年来，古巴通过为中国和俄罗斯设施提供场地在经济上获益，作为回报，据报道两国向哈瓦那提供了资金或减免了其债务，总额达数百亿美元。

The three countries are united by their history of communism, even if Russia has abandoned that Soviet-era political model, and a common rivalry with the United States. After Fidel Castro overthrew his island’s dictatorship in 1959, Moscow became the island’s main patron.

这三个国家因共产主义历史而团结在一起——尽管俄罗斯已放弃了苏联时代的政治模式，并且有着美国这个共同的敌手。1959年菲德尔·卡斯特罗推翻岛上独裁政权后，莫斯科成为古巴的主要支持者。

The Lourdes base would become a major irritant for American officials. During a 1983 Oval Office address on the Soviet threat, President Ronald Reagan singled out the base, displaying declassified aerial photos of the facility and calling it “the largest of its kind in the world,” with a contingent of 1,500 Soviet technicians.

洛尔德斯基地后来成为美国官员的一大心病。1983年，里根总统在椭圆形办公室发表关于苏联威胁的讲话时，专门点名该基地，并展示了已解密的设施航拍照片，称它是“世界上此类设施最大的”，驻有1500名苏联技术人员。

After the Cold War’s end, relations between Washington and Moscow warmed, and a cash-strapped Kremlin scaled back its global reach. In October 2001, Mr. Putin announced that Russia would close the Lourdes base.

冷战结束后，华盛顿与莫斯科的关系升温，资金拮据的克里姆林宫缩减了全球布局。2001年10月，普京宣布俄罗斯将关闭洛尔德斯基地。

“This decision is another indication that the Cold War is over,” President George W. Bush said then in a statement. “President Putin understands that Russia and America are no longer adversaries.”

“这一决定再次表明冷战已经结束，”当时的总统乔治·W·布什在一份声明中说。“普京总统明白，俄罗斯和美国不再是对手。”

Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, ​said American attacks on Iran justified his decision to expand his country’s nuclear arsenal despite international sanctions, state media reported on Tuesday.

据朝鲜官方媒体周二报道，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩表示，美国对伊朗的袭击证明，他不顾国际制裁、执意扩大本国核武库的决定是正当的。

Mr. Kim said that the war in the Middle East, which began with the United States and Israel bombing Iran last month, showed that only strong military power would make his country safe in ​a world ​shaped by President Trump​’s foreign policy.​ He delivered a lengthy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s rubber-stamp legislature in Pyongyang​, on Monday, ​in which he reiterated hostility toward South Korea and vowed to strengthen his country’s nuclear force to deter Washington.

金正恩称，上月美以联手轰炸伊朗引发的中东战争表明，在特朗普总统的外交政策所塑造的世界格局中，唯有强大的军事实力才能保障朝鲜安全。周一，他在位于平壤的朝鲜橡皮图章式立法机构最高人民会议发表了长篇讲话，会上重申了对韩国的敌对立场，并发誓强化本国核力量以威慑美国。

​In his speech​, the text of which was released on Tuesday, Mr. Kim said one of the best decisions he ​had made following the ​breakdown of talks with Mr. Trump in 2019 was to double down on expanding his nuclear arsenal.​ Since then, Mr. Kim has ​urged his country ​both to build a “self-reliant economy” ​capable of endur​ing sanctions ​and to make more nuclear warheads ​along with a wider range of ​delivery missiles.

讲话全文于周二对外公布，金正恩在讲话中表示，2019年与特朗普的谈判破裂后，他做出的最正确的决定之一就是加倍努力推进核武库扩张。自那以后，金正恩一方面推动朝鲜打造能够承受制裁的“自力更生经济”，另一方面推动本国生产更多核弹头，以及射程更广的各类投送导弹。

Mr. Kim did not mention Iran by name in his speech​. But he said that “acts of terror and aggression that the United States is committing throughout the world”​ fully justified his pursuit of a nuclear arsenal. The security ​afforded by those weapons ​had also freed up resources ​for economic development in North Korea in recent years, he said.

金正恩在讲话中并未点名提及伊朗，但他表示，“美国正在世界各地实施国家恐怖袭击与侵略行径”充分证明了他发展核武库的合理性。他还称，近年来，核武器带来的安全保障也为朝鲜的经济发展释放了资源。

Here are key​ excerpts from his speech, which was full of self-congratulation.

以下是他这篇充满自夸的讲话的核心节选：

• “Today’s reality clearly demonstrates the legitimacy of our nation’s strategic choice and decision to reject the enemies’ sweet talk and permanently secure our nuclear arsenal.”

· “如今的现实清晰证明，我国拒绝敌人的花言巧语、永久确保核武库这一战略抉择与决定，是完全正当合理的。”

• “I affirm that our nation is no longer a country under threat​ — we ​now possess the power to pose a threat if necessary. The solid construction of the nuclear shield firmly guarantees and drives the development of all sectors of the country, including the economy and culture, as well as the improvement of the people’s lives.”

· “我在此申明，我国已不再是受威胁的国家——必要时，我们拥有构成威慑的能力。核盾牌的坚实构建，有力保障并推动了我国经济、文化等各领域的发展，以及人民生活水平的提高。”

• “The dignity of the state, national interests, and ultimate victory are guaranteed only by the strongest power. Our government will continue to resolutely solidify its status as a nuclear power.”

·“国家的尊严、国益、最后的胜利都只能靠最强的力量来获得保障。我国政府将继续坚定不移地巩固自身核大国地位。”

• “We will recognize South Korea as the most hostile state, deal with it by thoroughly rejecting and ignoring it through the clearest words and actions, and make South Korea pay the price mercilessly for any actions that touch our republic, without the slightest hesitation or consideration.”

·“认定韩国为最敌对的国家，并以最明确的言辞和行动彻底拒绝和无视它，对于韩国任何侵犯我们共和国的行为，都将毫不犹豫、毫不迟疑、毫不留情地让其付出代价。”

For decades, Washington and its allies have used both ​sanctions and incentives​ to persuade North Korea to ​abandon its nuclear weapons program. ​All such efforts have failed.

数十年来，美国及其盟友一直通过制裁与利诱双管齐下的方式，试图说服朝鲜放弃核武器计划。但所有此类努力均以失败告终。

Since his return to the White House, Mr. Trump has expressed an interest in meeting Mr. Kim again​; however, the North Korean leader ​has said that talks ​are possible only ​if Washington ​formally recognizes his country as a nuclear power.​ North Korea has long ​maintained that both Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and Saddam Hussein of Iraq would not have met their​ fates had they possessed a nuclear deterrent.

特朗普重返白宫后，曾表示有意与金正恩再次会面；但这位朝鲜领导人已明确表示，唯有华盛顿正式承认朝鲜的核大国地位，双方才有可能举行会谈。朝鲜长期以来一直坚称，倘若拥有核威慑力量，利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲与伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛因就不会落得最终的下场。

The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.

据两名了解相关外交情况的官员表示，美国已向伊朗递交了一份结束中东战争的15点计划，这反映出特朗普政府正急于寻求摆脱冲突的出路，以应对战争带来的经济影响。

It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.

目前尚不清楚这份通过巴基斯坦传递的计划在伊朗官员中的传阅范围，也不清楚伊朗是否可能接受该计划作为谈判基础。同样不清楚的是，一直与美国联合轰炸伊朗的以色列是否支持该提议。

But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.

但该方案的递交表明，美国政府正加大力度结束这场已进入第四周、波及多个国家的战争。

The New York Times did not see a copy of the plan, but the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details, shared some of its broad outlines, saying that it addresses Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

《纽约时报》未能看到该方案的文本，但这些因涉及敏感信息而要求匿名的官员透露了一些大致内容，称其涉及伊朗的弹道导弹和核计划。

Israel and the United States have targeted Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers and production facilities, and its nuclear program in the bombing campaign that began on Feb. 28. American and Israeli leaders have vowed never to allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.

自2月28日开始轰炸行动以来，以色列和美国一直以伊朗的弹道导弹、发射装置、生产设施以及核计划为打击目标。美以领导人誓言绝不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。

But Iran has continued to fire missiles at Israel and neighboring Arab countries and still holds 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in its territory.

但伊朗仍在持续向以色列及邻近阿拉伯国家发射导弹，其境内仍拥有440公斤高浓缩铀。

The plan also discusses maritime routes, one of the officials said. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has effectively blocked most Western ships from safely passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway in and out of the Persian Gulf, cutting the global supply of oil and natural gas, and sending the prices soaring.

其中一名官员表示，该方案还涉及海上通道问题。自战争爆发以来，伊朗已成功阻止大多数西方船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡——这一进出波斯湾的战略水道，切断了全球石油和天然气的供应，导致价格飙升。

For now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently; Israeli officials have said they expect it to continue for weeks. In a statement, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, acknowledged diplomacy was underway, but said, “As President Trump and his negotiators explore this newfound possibility of diplomacy, Operation Epic Fury continues unabated to achieve the military objectives laid out by the commander inchief and the Pentagon.”

目前尚无迹象表明战争会在短期内缓和；以色列官员表示，预计冲突还将持续数周。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中承认外交努力正在推进，但表示：“在特朗普总统及其谈判团队探索这一新的外交可能性的同时，‘史诗愤怒行动’ 将继续全力推进，以实现总司令和五角大楼设定的军事目标。”

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.

两名知情官员还表示，巴基斯坦陆军元帅、陆军参谋长赛义德·阿西姆·穆尼尔已成为美伊之间的关键中间人，埃及和土耳其也在鼓励伊朗进行建设性接触。据信，穆尼尔元帅与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队关系密切，这使他能够在交战双方之间传递信息。

拉合尔一块广告牌上的巴基斯坦陆军元帅、陆军参谋长赛义德·阿西姆·穆尼尔，他已成为伊朗与美国之间的主要中间人。

He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.

据一位伊朗官员和一位巴基斯坦官员称，穆尼尔最近联系了伊朗议会议长、前革命卫队指挥官穆罕默德·巴吉尔·卡利巴夫，提议由巴基斯坦主办伊朗与美国之间的会谈。这两位官员因讨论敏感信息而要求匿名。

Field Marshal Munir met twice in 2025 with President Trump, who has showered praise on him, saying he was his “favorite field marshal.”

穆尼尔元帅曾在2025年两次与特朗普总统会面，特朗普对他大加赞赏，称他为“我最喜欢的元帅”。

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan wrote on social media that his country “fully supports ongoing efforts to pursue dialogue to end” the war in the Middle East.

周二，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫在社交媒体上写道，巴基斯坦“完全支持通过对话结束中东战争的持续努力”。

“Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict,” he wrote.

他写道：“在美国和伊朗同意的前提下，巴基斯坦已做好准备并深感荣幸，愿作为东道主，为推动达成全面解决当前冲突的有意义且具决定性的会谈提供便利。”

Iran may have trouble delivering a quick response to American outreach. Senior Iranian officials have been struggling to communicate internally and they worry that Israel could bomb them if they meet in person, the officials added.

官员们补充称，伊朗可能难以及时回应美方的接触。伊朗高级官员在内部沟通上正面临困难，并担心一旦面对面会谈，以色列可能对其发动袭击。

On the first day of the war, Israel struck an Iranian leadership compound in Tehran, killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many other top officials. Who now holds the power to make decisions on diplomacy, war and peace remains to be seen.

战争爆发首日，以色列袭击了德黑兰的一处伊朗领导层设施，造成伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名高层官员身亡。目前谁掌握着有关外交、战争与和平的决策权仍有待观察。

But the eagerness of the White House to negotiate suggests that Mr. Trump would be willing to leave the current regime in place, at least for now, albeit in a weakened and more pliant state. He and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have vacillated on whether their demands for the war included regime change.

但白宫急于谈判的态度表明，特朗普可能愿意暂时保留现政权，尽管其将处于更为虚弱、更加顺从的状态。他与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在是否将“政权更迭”列为战争目标的问题上一直摇摆不定。

Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing President Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign presents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East, according to people briefed by American officials on the conversations.

数名知情人士透露，在过去一周的一系列谈话中，沙特阿拉伯实际领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储一直在敦促特朗普总统继续对伊朗的战争，他认为，美以军事行动为重塑中东提供了一个“历史性机遇”。这些知情人士是通过美方官员了解到这些对话的。

In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar with the conversations said.

知情人士说，穆罕默德王储向特朗普传达的信息是：必须坚持彻底摧毁伊朗的强硬派政府。

Prince Mohammed, the people familiar with the discussions said, has argued that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Gulf that can only be eliminated by getting rid of the government.

熟悉讨论内容的人士表示，穆罕默德王储认为，伊朗对海湾地区构成长期威胁，只有推翻其政府才能消除这一威胁。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel also views Iran as a long-term threat, but analysts say Israeli officials would probably view a failed Iranian state that is too caught up in internal turmoil to menace Israel as a win, while Saudi Arabia views a failed state in Iran as a grave and direct security threat.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡同样将伊朗视为长期威胁，但分析人士指出，以色列官员可能认为，一个陷入严重内乱而无力威胁以色列的失败伊朗政权就是胜利；而沙特阿拉伯则认为伊朗成为失败国家将构成严重而直接的安全威胁。

But senior officials in both the Saudi and American governments worry that if the conflict drags on, Iran could deliver ever more punishing attacks on Saudi oil installations and the United States could be stuck in an endless war.

然而，沙特和美国两国政府的高级官员都担心，如果冲突持续下去，伊朗可能对沙特石油设施发动更具破坏性的袭击，而美国则可能陷入一场无休止的战争。

In public, Mr. Trump has swung wildly between suggesting that the war could end soon and signaling it would escalate. On Monday, the president posted on social media that his administration and Iran had held “productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities,” though Iran disputed the idea that negotiations were underway.

在公开场合，特朗普在“战争可能很快结束”和“战争将会升级”之间大幅摇摆。周一，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他的政府与伊朗进行了“富有成效的对话，讨论全面彻底解决敌对状态”，但伊朗否认正在进行谈判。

The consequences of the war for Saudi Arabia’s economy and national security are enormous. Iranian drone and missile attacks, launched in response to the American-Israeli assault on Iran, have already created huge disruptions in the oil market.

这场战争对沙特阿拉伯的经济和国家安全影响巨大。作为对美以袭击伊朗的回应，伊朗发射的无人机和导弹已对石油市场造成严重扰乱。

Saudi officials rejected the idea that Prince Mohammed has pushed to prolong the war.

沙特官员否认穆罕默德王储曾推动延长战争。

“The kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began,” the Saudi government said in a statement, noting that officials “remain in close contact with the Trump administration and our commitment remains unchanged.”

沙特政府在一份声明中表示：“沙特阿拉伯王国始终支持和平解决这场冲突，甚至在冲突开始之前就是如此。”声明指出，沙特官员“与特朗普政府保持密切联系，我们的立场没有改变”。

“Our primary concern today is to defend ourselves from the daily attacks on our people and our civilian infrastructure,” the government added. “Iran has chosen dangerous brinkmanship over serious diplomatic solutions. This harms every stakeholder involved but none more than Iran itself.”

声明还补充说：“我们目前最关心的是保护自己免受针对我国人民和民用基础设施的日常袭击。伊朗选择了危险的边缘政策，而不是严肃的外交解决方案。这伤害了所有相关方，但受损最严重的正是伊朗自身。”

Mr. Trump has at times seemed open to winding down the war, but Prince Mohammed has argued that would be a mistake, the people briefed on the conversations said, and has pressed for attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure to weaken the government in Tehran.

熟悉对话内容的人士表示，特朗普有时似乎愿意结束战争，但穆罕默德王储认为这将是错误之举，并敦促对伊朗能源基础设施发动攻击，以削弱德黑兰政府。

This article is based on interviews with people who have had conversations with American officials, and who described the discussions on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of Mr. Trump’s talks with world leaders. The New York Times interviewed people with a variety of views on the wisdom of continuing the war and of Prince Mohammed’s role in advising Mr. Trump.

本文基于对曾与美国官员交谈的人士的采访，他们因特朗普与各国领导人谈话的敏感性而要求匿名。《纽约时报》采访的人士立场各异，他们对是否应继续战争，以及穆罕默德王储在向特朗普提供建议方面扮演了何种角色，各自持有不同的看法。

本月无人机袭击后，卫星图像显示沙特阿拉伯拉斯塔努拉炼油厂冒出浓烟。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “does not comment on the president’s private conversations.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，政府“不对总统的私下谈话发表评论”。

Prince Mohammed, an authoritarian royal who has led a sustained crackdown on dissent, is respected by Mr. Trump and has previously influenced the president’s decision-making. Prince Mohammed has argued that the United States should consider putting troops in Iran to seize energy infrastructure and force the government out of power, according to the people briefed by U.S. officials.

穆罕默德是一名推行持续镇压异见人士的威权王储，深受特朗普尊重，并曾多次影响美国总统的决策。据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，穆罕默德王储主张美国应考虑派兵进入伊朗，夺取能源基础设施并迫使伊朗政府下台。

In recent days, Mr. Trump has given more serious consideration to a military operation to seize Kharg Island, the hub of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Such an operation, with airborne Army forces or an amphibious assault by Marines, would be immensely dangerous.

最近几天，特朗普已开始认真考虑对伊朗石油基础设施枢纽——哈尔克岛发动军事行动。这样一场行动——无论是陆军空降部队还是海军陆战队两栖突击——都将极其危险。

But Prince Mohammed has advocated ground operations in his conversations with Mr. Trump, according to people briefed by American officials.

但据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，穆罕默德王储在与特朗普的谈话中主张进行地面作战。

The Saudi views of the war are shaped by economic factors as much as political ones. Since the war began, Iran’s retaliatory attacks have largely choked off the Strait of Hormuz, hobbling the region’s energy industry. The vast majority of Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti oil must pass through the strait to reach international markets.

沙特对这场战争的看法受经济因素的影响与政治因素同样大。自战争爆发以来，伊朗的报复性袭击已基本封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，使该地区能源产业陷入瘫痪。沙特、阿联酋和科威特绝大部分石油都必须通过该海峡才能进入国际市场。

While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have built pipelines to circumvent the strait, those alternative routes have come under attack as well.

虽然沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋已修建了绕过海峡的管道，但这些替代路线也遭到了袭击。

Analysts familiar with Saudi government thinking say that while Prince Mohammed probably preferred to avoid a war, he is concerned that if Mr. Trump pulls back now, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East will be left to confront an emboldened and furious Iran on their own.

熟悉沙特政府思路的分析人士表示，虽然穆罕默德王储可能原本希望避免战争，但他担心如果特朗普现在退缩，沙特阿拉伯和中东其他国家将不得不独自面对一个更加胆大妄为且愤怒的伊朗。

In this view, they say, a half-finished offensive would expose Saudi Arabia to frequent Iranian attacks. Such a scenario could also leave Iran with the power to periodically close the Strait of Hormuz.

他们认为，半途而废的进攻将使沙特阿拉伯频繁遭受伊朗袭击。这种局面也可能让伊朗保留定期关闭霍尔木兹海峡的能力。

“Saudi officials certainly want the war to end, but how it ends matters,” said Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project for the International Crisis Group.

“沙特官员当然希望战争结束，但如何结束非常重要，”国际危机组织海湾与阿拉伯半岛项目主任亚斯敏·法鲁克说。

A 2019 Iran-backed attack on Saudi oil facilities — which briefly knocked out half of the kingdom’s oil production — pushed the prince to reconsider his antagonistic approach to the Islamic Republic.

2019年伊朗支持的对沙特石油设施的袭击曾短暂导致该国一半石油产量中断，这促使王储重新思考他对伊朗伊斯兰共和国的对抗性政策。

Saudi officials later pursued a diplomatic détente, re-establishing relations with Iran in 2023, in part because they realized that their country’s alliance with the United States offered only partial protection from Iran, Saudi officials have said.

沙特官员后来寻求外交缓和，于2023年与伊朗恢复外交关系，他们曾表示，部分原因在于他们意识到与美国的联盟只能提供部分保护。

Other countries in the region, including the United Arab Emirates, also pursued warmer relations with Iran in the past few years for similar reasons.

该地区其他国家，包括阿拉伯联合酋长国，过去几年也出于类似原因寻求与伊朗改善关系。

After Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war, against the advice of several Gulf governments, Iran responded by shooting thousands of missiles and drones at countries in the region, derailing their efforts to bring Iran into their fold, Gulf officials have said.

在特朗普不顾几个海湾国家政府的劝告决定开战后，伊朗以向该地区各国发射数千枚导弹和无人机作为回应，海湾国家官员表示，这彻底破坏了它们将伊朗拉入阵营的努力。

“What little trust there was before has completely been shattered,” Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, told reporters last week.

“此前仅存的一点信任已完全破裂，”沙特外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉亲王上周对记者说。

本周一遭美以空袭后的德黑兰。

Saudi Arabia has a large stockpile of Patriot interceptors that it is using to protect itself from the barrage of Iranian attacks that have rained down on its oil fields, refineries and cities.

沙特阿拉伯拥有大量“爱国者”拦截导弹库存，目前正用其保护自己免受伊朗对油田、炼油厂和城市发动的密集袭击。

But interceptors are in short supply globally. Drone and missile attacks in Saudi Arabia have already struck a refinery and the U.S. embassy, while fragments from intercepted projectiles have killed two Bangladeshi migrant workers and injured more than a dozen other foreign residents.

但全球拦截导弹供应短缺。在沙特的无人机和导弹袭击已击中一座炼油厂和美国大使馆，而被拦截的导弹碎片已造成两名孟加拉国移民工人死亡，另外还导致十多名外国居民受伤。

Since the beginning of the war, Mr. Netanyahu has pushed for military operations that could force the collapse of Iran’s government. U.S. officials have focused on degrading the country’s missile and naval capabilities and have been more skeptical that the hard-line government in Iran can be driven from power.

自战争开始以来，内塔尼亚胡一直推动可能迫使伊朗政府崩溃的军事行动。而美国官员则更侧重于削弱伊朗的导弹和海军能力，对强硬派政府能否被赶下台持更怀疑的态度。

Though Israeli strikes have killed a large number of leaders, the hard-line government remains in control.

尽管以色列的打击已杀死大量伊朗领导人，但强硬派政府仍掌控局面。

Saudi officials have long expressed concerns that a failed state in Iran poses a grave threat to them, analysts say. They fear that even if Iran’s government fell, elements of the military — or militias that could emerge in the power vacuum — would continue to attack the kingdom and are likely to focus on oil targets.

分析人士表示，沙特官员长期以来一直担心，一个失败的伊朗国家对他们构成严重威胁。他们担心即使伊朗政府倒台，其军队残部或权力真空中新出现的民兵组织仍将继续攻击沙特王国，并很可能将目标锁定在石油设施上。

Some government intelligence analysts have told other officials that they think Prince Mohammed sees the war as an opportunity for him to increase Saudi Arabia’s influence throughout the Middle East, and that he believes Saudi Arabia can protect itself even if the war continues.

一些政府情报分析人士告诉其他官员，他们认为穆罕默德王储将这场战争视为提升沙特阿拉伯在中东影响力的机会，并相信即使战争持续，沙特也有能力保护自己。

In conversations with Prince Mohammed, Mr. Trump has raised worries about the price of oil and the damage it is doing to the economy. The Saudi leader has assured him that is only temporary, according to people briefed by American officials.

在与穆罕默德王储的谈话中，特朗普表达了对油价上涨及其对经济造成损害的担忧。据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，沙特领导人向他保证，这只是暂时的。

But American and regional officials are deeply skeptical that oil markets will quickly recover from the war. Saudi Arabia cannot make up the shortfalls caused by the war because its overland pipeline can only carry a fraction of the oil that normally transits through the Strait of Hormuz, economists say.

但美国和地区官员都深表怀疑，认为石油市场不会很快从战争中恢复。经济学家表示，沙特阿拉伯无法弥补战争造成的石油短缺，因为其陆上管道的输送能力与正常通过霍尔木兹海峡的输送量难以相提并论。

While Saudi Arabia is better positioned than the other Gulf countries to weather the closure of the strait, it could face dire ramifications if the waterway is not reopened soon.

虽然沙特阿拉伯比其他海湾国家更有能力承受海峡关闭，但如果这条水道不能尽快重新开放，它仍将面临严重后果。

Even before the war began, Prince Mohammed was facing serious financial challenges as he approached the 2030 deadline he had set for himself to transform Saudi Arabia into a global business hub. His government is forecasting budget deficits for several years to come as ambitious megaprojects and vast investments in artificial intelligence strain the country’s limited resources.

甚至在战争爆发之前，穆罕默德王储就已面临严重的财政挑战，因为2030年他为自己设定的将沙特转变为全球商业枢纽的期限日益临近。由于雄心勃勃的大型项目和在人工智能领域的大量投资耗费了该国有限的资源，沙特政府预计未来几年将持续出现预算赤字。

A prolonged war with Iran would put all of that at risk. The prince’s success hinges on creating a secure environment for investors and tourists.

一场旷日持久的伊朗战争将使这一切面临风险。王储的成功取决于为投资者和游客创造一个安全的环境。

Asked last week whether the Saudi government preferred an immediate end to the war or a longer conflict in which Iran’s capabilities were degraded, Prince Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, told reporters that the only thing that officials cared about was halting Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries.

上周，当被问及沙特政府是希望战争立即结束，还是进行一场能削弱伊朗能力的较长期冲突时，沙特外交大臣费萨尔亲王对记者表示，官员们唯一关心的是让伊朗停止对沙特阿拉伯和邻国的袭击。

“We’re going to use every lever we have — political, economic, diplomatic and else-wise — to get these attacks to stop,” Prince Faisal said.

“我们将动用一切手段——政治、经济、外交以及其他一切手段——来让这些袭击停止，”费萨尔亲王说。

China’s second-largest city continues to transform rapidly. Beyond luxury megastores and virtual-reality experiences, Shanghai is repurposing what’s left of its unique architectural heritage into cultural and dining destinations, creating a new dynamism. A major transition to electric vehicles has helped quiet the streets, while expanded high-speed rail and metro services have made the city more accessible. Daily life in Shanghai runs almost entirely through apps — for bookings, payments and transport — which offer incredible convenience, but come with a learning curve for travelers. What is easier, however: A new 10-day visa-free transit option for visitors from dozens of countries, including the United States, is one way China is laying out the welcome mat after its border closures during the pandemic.

中国第二大城市上海正持续飞速蜕变。除了奢品旗舰店与虚拟现实体验，这座城市正将留存的独特建筑遗产改造为文化与餐饮地标，焕发出全新活力。电动汽车的大规模普及让街道更安静，不断扩容的高铁与地铁网络也让这座城市的出行更为便捷。在上海，预约、支付、出行等日常生活几乎全靠各类应用软件完成，这带来了极致便利，却也让游客需要一定时间适应。不过，有一项便利门槛极低：疫情封关后，中国正以多项举措向世界张开怀抱，其中就包括针对美国等数十国公民推出的全新10天过境免签政策。

Itinerary

行程安排

Friday

周五

3 p.m. Go on an art walk

15:00 艺术漫步

The Bund, Shanghai’s waterfront of neo-Gothic and Baroque- and Renaissance-style buildings along Huangpu River, once housed global titans of industry. Today, it is a contemporary art destination. Start at the Hive Center for Contemporary Art (free) for large-scale works by established Chinese artists, such as the abstract painter and sculptor Wang Wenting. Opened in 2023 in a former bank building, the gallery’s monumental stained-glass skylight alone is worth the visit. At Rockbund Art Museum, two blocks east, rotating exhibitions — such as one inspired by the work of the French theorist Suzanne Césaire (through April 26) — highlight experimental multimedia works (free). Since opening in 2024, Space 185 at Bund Art Center, a half-mile south, has put on shows pairing contemporary Chinese heavyweights such as the painters Zhao Gang and Yu Hong with global names like Anish Kapoor (free).

外滩是上海沿黄浦江铺展的滨水地带，林立着新哥特、巴洛克与文艺复兴风格的历史建筑，曾是全球工商业巨头的聚集地，如今已成为当代艺术地标。第一站前往蜂巢当代艺术中心（免费），这里展出了中国知名艺术家的大型作品，比如抽象画家、雕塑家王文婷。该艺术中心2023年在一栋百年银行旧址内开业，单是馆内恢弘的彩色玻璃天窗就值得一访。向东两个街区，就是上海外滩美术馆，馆内常设轮换展览（免费），比如正在展出的、受法国理论家苏珊·塞泽尔作品启发的多媒体实验艺术展（展期至4月26日）。向南不到一公里，外滩艺术中心的185空间于2024年开放，曾举办赵刚、喻红等中国当代艺术领军人物与安尼施·卡普尔等国际艺术大师的联展（免费）。

6 p.m. Shop for snacks

18:00 零食采购

Take a six-minute Didi ride or walk just under a mile west along the neon-lit, pedestrian-only Nanjing Road, the city’s version of Times Square. Among the many mega marts is Shanghai First Food Mall, a snack and street-food emporium. On the first floor, pick up palmier-like caramelized butterfly cookies (from 40 renminbi for a box) and cream cakes from Kaisiling (from 12 renminbi for a slice), items so beloved Shanghai’s government designated them a part of the city’s non-material cultural heritage. The second floor has food vendors and a grocery, while the third floor is a medley of many of Shanghai’s popular fast-casual joints.

打滴滴六分钟，或沿霓虹璀璨的南京路步行街向西步行1.5公里左右——这条路堪称上海版时报广场。在鳞次栉比的大型商场中，藏着上海第一食品商店，这是一座零食与街头小吃的宝库。一楼可以买到凯司令的焦糖蝴蝶酥（40元/盒起）与奶油蛋糕（12元/块起），这些经典点心已被上海市政府列入非物质文化遗产名录；二楼是各类食品商户与生鲜超市；三楼则汇聚了上海多家热门轻食快餐品牌。

7 p.m. Eat crab noodles

19:00 吃蟹黄面

The brackish waters of the Yangtze River Delta, where the city sits, host the pride of Shanghainese cuisine: hairy crab. Although peak harvest is in fall, some menus feature the specialty year-round. The restaurant Cejerdary, on the Bund, treats it with a special reverence, underlined by an austere dining room centered around a miniature karst landscape of bonsai. The restaurant serves crab from Yangcheng Lake, the region’s premier source. One order of stew contains the meat and roe of a dozen fist-size crabs and can be ordered over noodles or rice (from 280 renminbi). A generous splash of black vinegar helps cut through the dish’s sweet richness.

上海地处长江三角洲，咸淡水交汇的水域孕育了本帮菜的骄傲——大闸蟹。尽管金秋才是大闸蟹的丰收旺季，但不少餐厅全年都供应这道招牌美味。外滩的蟹家大院以极致的匠心对待这种食材：餐厅装修简约沉静，用餐区以微缩喀斯特盆景为核心景观，主打阳澄湖核心产区的大闸蟹。一份蟹黄捞面/捞饭，用足足十几只拳头大的螃蟹的蟹肉与蟹黄熬制而成（280元起），淋上一勺香醋，可以和菜品的鲜甜醇厚形成对比。

9 p.m. Enter a time warp

21:00 穿越旧时光

It can be difficult to find authentic time capsules in ever-futuristic Shanghai, which has preserved relatively little of its structural heritage. That is why the Jazz Bar at the Fairmont Peace Hotel, one of the city’s oldest music venues, is so special. Since 1980, a five-piece band with rotating members (the youngest is now 70) performs from 7 to 11 p.m. every night. A singer joins in during each hour-long set for a few oldies by past stars like Teresa Teng and Zhou Xuan (418 renminbi minimum per person; drinks from 118 renminbi, snacks from 88 renminbi).

在永远向着未来狂奔的上海，能留存下来的原汁原味“时光胶囊”寥寥无几，这也让费尔蒙和平饭店的爵士酒吧愈发珍贵——它是上海历史最悠久的音乐场馆之一。一支由轮换成员组成的五人爵士乐队自1980年起在这里常驻演出，最年轻的成员也已70岁高龄。乐队每晚19:00-23:00演出，每小时的演出单元中，都会有歌手登台，演绎邓丽君、周璇等传奇歌星的经典老歌。（人均最低消费418元，饮品118元起，小食88元起）

10 p.m. Take in two vistas

22:00 双景尽收眼底

Shanghai functionally has two skylines: the historic Bund on the city's western Puxi side, and the sleek Pudong skyline east of the Huangpu River. To see it all in a single panorama, head to the hotel Regent Shanghai on the Bund, which opened in 2023, where the river bends just north of the main promenade. Book ahead and enjoy a bourbon cocktail (from 138 renminbi) at its terrace restaurant, Condé, while basking in Pudong’s neon glow and Puxi’s soft radiance.

上海有两条标志性天际线：浦西外滩的百年历史建筑群与黄浦江东岸浦东现代的摩天楼群。想要一眼将两幅盛景尽收眼底，一定要去2023年开业的海鸥丽晶酒店，它坐落于外滩主步道北侧的江湾处。提前预订座位，在酒店的露台餐厅Condé点一杯波本鸡尾酒（138元起），一边沐浴着浦东的霓虹璀璨，一边感受浦西历史建筑的温润灯火。

复兴公园INS夜生活综合体内的八家场馆之一——KZ。

Saturday

周六

10 a.m. Go on a dumpling crawl

10:00 包点巡礼

A single block of West Jianguo Road is a dumpling-lover’s paradise. Start at Man Man Tang Bao, where Mr. Li Dailiang and his son make to order extra delicate xiao long bao, steamed dumplings stuffed with a gelatinous pork broth that melts once it is cooked (from 20 renminbi for eight). Nearby, the circa-1885 Fuchun Xiao Long Bao does an excellent sheng jian man tou: a larger, doughier version of the soup dumplings that are pan-fried (from 18 renminbi for four). Choose between two types of wonton soup at Denglong Wonton: pork with bamboo shoots and watercress-like shepherd’s purse (25 renminbi) or pork with shrimp (32 renminbi). Although a light broth is traditional, here it is rich. You can even order an extra scoop of lard — aptly called le kou fu, or happy blessing (5 renminbi).

建国西路的一个街区是包点爱好者的天堂。第一站前往曼曼汤包，李代良父子现点现做，小笼包皮薄如纸，内馅是遇热即化的皮冻猪肉汤汁，一口爆汁（20元/八个）；不远处是始创于1885年的富春小笼馆，生煎包堪称一绝，比汤包个头更大、面皮更暄软，底部煎得金黄酥脆（18元/四个）；还有灯笼馄饨，有两款经典馄饨可选：荠菜竹笋丁鲜肉馄饨（25元）、虾仁鲜肉馄饨（32元）。不同于传统的清淡汤底，这里的汤底醇厚浓郁，还可以额外加一勺猪油，店家给它取了个贴切的名字“乐口福”，寓意口腹之乐（五元/勺）。

12 p.m. Hit the shops

12:00 街区逛买

On Julu Road, browse loose-structured clothing featuring motifs inspired by the Tang Dynasty at Label Del. and the latest from China’s up-and-coming fashion designers at Labelhood House. On Wuyuan Road, a half-mile southwest, shop for beautiful small objects like gingko leaf-shaped copper tea sieves at the Gathering. Across the street is the Former Residence of Zhang Leping, one of China’s first comic artists and the creator of the children’s cartoon character Sanmao (“Three Hairs"), which is now a free museum. About a mile south, Yongkang Road is dotted with old-school shops like Gu Qing Ji Nam Pak Goods, which has sold pantry items like sauces, elixirs and cured meats following family recipes since 1925. Find sweet treats like tofu-based ice cream and pudding at Beiye Tofu (from 28 renminbi) and durian cakes at Yelo Bow (from 49 renminbi for a slice).

巨鹿路上，Label Del有以唐代纹样为灵感的宽松服饰，在蕾虎(Labelhood House)有中国新锐设计师的最新作品；向西南800米到五原路，在集雅Gathering挑选银杏叶铜茶滤等精致文创小物，街对面是张乐平——中国最早的漫画家之一、经典儿童形象“三毛”的创作者——的故居，如今已成为免费博物馆；向南约1500米到永康路，路边有许多老派商铺，比如始创于1925年的古青记山货行，至今仍在售卖按祖传配方制作的酱料、膏方、腊味等食材；还有北叶豆腐的豆腐冰淇淋、豆腐布丁（28元起），Yelo Bow的榴莲蛋糕（49元/片起）等甜品小店。

3 p.m. Experience traditional Chinese medicine

15:00 体验传统中医

Kang You Si Ji is a popular wellness clinic using traditional Chinese medicine with locations across the city. Head to its Jing’an branch for a full-body Tuina massage, a 2,000-year-old technique that acts on the body’s energy, or qi (from 250 renminbi for an hour). The practitioner will start by asking about your sleep, digestion and stress levels (it may help to prepare a brief written overview in Chinese), before observing your posture and locating muscle tension. Then a series of rhythmic movements will follow your body’s meridian pathways, which are thought to carry qi throughout the body. Add on an ear cleaning for 168 renminbi, a service that involves dislodging earwax with a tuning fork.

康友四季是上海人气颇高的中医养生馆，在全市有多家分店。前往静安分店，体验全身推拿——这项拥有2000年历史的理疗技法，作用于人体的气血经络（一小时250元起）。理疗师会先询问你的睡眠、消化与压力状况（建议提前准备一份简短的中文书面说明），再观察体态、定位肌肉紧张部位，随后循着人体经络，用一系列富有节奏的手法完成推拿。还可以加168元体验采耳，理疗师会用音叉配合专业工具清理耳垢。

5 p.m. Enjoy tea and art in a Wong Kar-wai film

17:00 在王家卫的电影里品茶赏艺

Fans of the 2000 film “In the Mood for Love” now have a way to step into its creator’s lush aesthetic at Mi Shang Prada Rong Zhai, a new dining and arts space from Prada that was designed with the Hong Kong director Wong Kar-wai. Have tea on the garden terrace of the restored circa-1918 mansion or in an Art Deco room where almost every surface is mirrored, gilded, or clad in velvet or lacquered wood. Order the tea ritual to try five types (228 renminbi), including China’s coveted pu’er variety. On the upper floors, check out biannual art exhibits, including an upcoming show about finding meaning in data done in collaboration with the Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas’s studio AMO/OMA.

2000年电影《花样年华》的影迷终于有机会来到迷上Prada荣宅，亲身走进导演王家卫打造的浓郁美学世界——这一全新餐饮及艺术空间由Prada打造、由香港导演王家卫参与设计。在这座约建于1918年的修复古宅中，你可以在花园露台或满是镜面、鎏金、丝绒与漆木的装饰艺术风包间里品茶。点一套茶道套餐（228元），可以品鉴包括在中国备受追捧的普洱在内的五款茶品。楼上还可参观一年两期的艺术展览，包括即将开展的、与荷兰建筑师雷姆·库哈斯的AMO/OMA工作室合作的展览，它将探讨如何在数据中寻找意义。

7 p.m. Savor classic Shanghainese cuisine

19:00 品味经典本帮菜

For some 1930s nostalgia and excellent Shanghainese fare, head to Ren He Guan’s Zhaojiabang Road location. The atmosphere would be kitsch if it wasn’t so transporting, with mint-green walls plastered with vintage art and booths dimly lit by stained-glass lights. From 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. most nights, a singer croons folk songs on a small, neon-lit stage designed to look like the one at the Paramount, a historic night club nearby that reopened in 2017 after decades of neglect. Order classic savory-sweet dishes like zui xia, prawns poached in broth and steeped in preserved plum wine, served cold (53 renminbi); guo shao he man, braised river eels with thinly sliced bamboo shoots and peppers (99 renminbi), and hong shao rou, pork belly braised in soy sauce, Shaoxing wine and sugar (from 27 renminbi).

想要沉浸式感受上世纪30年代的怀旧风情，同时吃到地道本帮菜，一定要去人和馆肇嘉浜路店。薄荷绿的墙面上贴满复古画作，彩色玻璃灯给卡座投下温柔的光影，若非氛围足够动人，这般布置很容易显得俗套。多数夜晚的18:00-19:00，都会有歌手在霓虹灯装点的小舞台上吟唱民谣歌曲，舞台设计模仿附近百乐门的舞台——这座传奇夜总会在荒废数十年后，于2017年重新开业。必点经典本帮甜咸口菜品，包括醉虾，高汤汆熟的大虾浸在青梅酒中，冷食上桌（53元）；锅烧河鳗：河鳗配嫩笋片、青椒焖烧入味（99元）；还有红烧肉：五花肉用酱油、绍兴酒与冰糖慢炖制（27元起）。

9 p.m. Discover the alternative after-hours

21:00 探索小众夜生活

In recent years, the area around Fuxing Park, namely Nanchang Road and Fuxing Road, has turned into a lowkey alternative to the techno and bottle-service clubs that long characterized Shanghai’s nightlife. Opened last year, Bar Leone is a Hong Kong import that serves classic cocktails (from 128 renminbi) with small twists, like a velvety whiskey sour shaken with olive oil, in a space styled after an Italian aperitivo bar. Across the park, join the craze for Japanese-style listening bars at Root Down. A few blocks away, Paal’s cocktails (from 98 renminbi), like its gin fizz made silky with clarified yogurt, are inspired by the late fashion designer Virgil Abloh’s so-called “three-percent rule” of innovation via a tiny tweak. And for those who want bottle service, the nightlife complex INS, in Fuxing Park, has eight venues dedicated to various music genres, from Chinese hip-hop to Studio 54-era disco (entry from 168 renminbi).

近几年，复兴公园周边——南昌路、复兴路一带——已逐渐成为长久以来定义上海夜生活的techno电音和瓶装酒服务夜店之外，上海夜生活的低调新选择。去年开业的Bar Leone来自香港，在意大利餐前酒酒吧风格的空间内主打带小巧思的经典鸡尾酒（128元起），比如用橄榄油摇制、口感绵密的威士忌酸；公园对面的Root Down是当下正火的日式聆音酒吧；几个街区外的Paal提供鸡尾酒（98元起），比如用澄清酸奶打造丝滑口感的金酒，灵感来自已故时尚设计师维吉尔·阿布洛提出的“3%创新法则”——用微小的改动实现创新。如果你想要享受开酒服务，复兴公园内的夜店综合体INS新乐园有八个不同场地，覆盖中文嘻哈、Studio 54年代迪斯科等多种音乐风格（门票168元起）。

游客在豫园附近的一座寺庙里供奉香火。

Sunday

周日

9 a.m. Stroll through the dynasties

09:00 漫步江南园林

Before the crowds descend, head to the 16th-century Yu Garden at opening time to experience a classic example of jiangnan design, which emphasizes harmony between architecture and nature (from 30 renminbi). Outside the garden entrance, a central bridge with nine turns — designed to confuse evil spirits — leads to the 18th-century Huxinting Teahouse, which reopened in the fall after a two-year restoration. Peek at the first-floor displays to learn about the teahouse but be warned that the upstairs tea room has a minimum spend of 388 renminbi. Enjoy a brunch of Shanghainese xiaochi, or small plates, at Lu Bo Lang. Most of the menu consists of slightly sweeter versions of Cantonese dim sum staples. Try the Shanghai delicacy mei mao su, a deep-fried crescent-shaped pastry filled with shredded pork and vegetables (36 renminbi, three pieces).

在游客蜂拥而至之前，不妨在开园时前往建于16世纪的豫园，感受这座经典江南园林建筑与自然相融共生的精髓（门票30元起）。园林入口外是专为困住邪灵设计的九曲桥，桥的尽头是始建于18世纪的湖心亭茶楼——这座茶楼历经两年修复于去年秋天重新开放。可以在一楼看看关于茶楼历史的展览，需注意二楼茶座设有388元的最低消费。随后可去绿波廊品尝上海本帮小吃早午餐。这里的菜品大多是粤式点心的微甜版本，可以试试上海经典名点眉毛酥——油炸的月牙形酥点，内馅是猪肉与蔬菜（36元三个）。

11 a.m. Find a match

11:00 相亲

Every Saturday and Sunday, well-meaning parents have gathered at People’s Park in Huangpu District to advertise their children for prospective matches at the Marriage Market. Enter from the People’s Square metro station through Gate 5 and you’ll soon arrive at hundreds of signs listing candidates’ age, height, occupation, income, and even assets (photos are notably absent). It’s a fascinating snapshot of the values of working-class Shanghai. Pick up a tang hu lu, a candied fruit stick, from a street vendor and people-watch under gingko trees. Or reach out to Free Tours China and customize a locally guided excursion that includes the Marriage Market (from 1,000 renminbi).

每个周六和周日，黄浦区人民公园黄浦区人民公园里都会聚集许多热心的父母，在相亲角为子女张贴征婚启事。从人民广场地铁站五号口进入公园，很快就能看到数百张征婚启事，上面写着应征者的年龄、身高、职业、收入，甚至资产（唯独没有照片）。这幅景象生动地展现了上海普通工薪阶层的婚恋价值观。你可以在路边小摊买一串糖葫芦，在银杏树下静静观察人来人往；也可以联系“Free Tours China”，定制包含相亲角在内的本地导览行程（1000元起）。

Facing sharply rising energy prices, China on Monday took steps to defray costs for its more than 300 million drivers who depend on gas-powered cars.

面对能源价格大幅飙升，中国于周一出台举措，为国内超3亿燃油车车主减轻用油成本。

The country’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, announced that it would “reduce the burden” on drivers by lowering a planned increase in gasoline.

中国最高经济规划机构国家发展和改革委员会宣布，将通过下调原定的汽油涨价幅度，为车主“减轻负担”。

Starting on Tuesday, the price at the pump will be set at an average of $4.70 a gallon — up from $4.20 but much lower than a planned $5.10 a gallon. Even with the lower cap, gasoline has jumped about 20 percent since the start of the war in Iran.

自周二起，国内汽油零售均价将定为每升8.55元，虽较此前的每升7.64元有所上涨，但远低于原定的每升9.28元。即便执行了这一限价，自伊朗战争爆发以来，国内汽油价格累计涨幅仍达约20%。

The agency adjusts the price of gas every 10 days to reflect changes to the global price of oil. The surge in energy costs caused by the war has made this typically formulaic process more economically and politically fraught.

发改委每10个工作日调整一次成品油价格，以反映国际油价的变动。战争引发能源成本暴涨，这一原本按固定公式执行的常规调价流程在经济与政治层面都变得更为棘手。

The decision to change its gas pricing was unexpected by oil analysts who watch China closely.

密切关注中国市场的石油分析师对此次调整成品油定价的决定感到意外。

“It suggests that Beijing is deeply concerned about inflationary pressure and consumer affordability, especially given the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds,” said Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, an industry data firm.

行业数据机构开普勒的资深石油分析师徐沐雨（音）表示：“这一举措表明，北京对通胀压力和居民消费承受能力深感担忧，尤其是在当前宏观经济持续面临逆风的背景下。”

The 40-cent increase was the largest single rise to the retail price of gas since the planning commission started adjusting prices every 10 days in 2013. Ms. Xu said she believed it was the first time the commission made such an intervention.

发改委自2013年启动成品油10个工作日调价机制，此次每升0.91元的涨幅是迄今单次零售价格涨幅最大的一次。徐沐雨表示，这也是发改委首次对此类调价进行非常规干预。

China has made concerted efforts to reduce its dependency on oil. Electric vehicles or hybrids, which run on both electricity and gas, make up half of new car sales and around 12 percent of all cars in China.

中国一直在持续发力降低对石油的依赖。目前，纯电动与混动汽车已占国内新车销量的半数，占全国汽车总量的约12%。

But there are still around 300 million cars that run only on gas in China. A little more than half of the country’s seaborne crude comes from the Middle East, and a quarter of that from Iran.

但中国仍有约3亿辆纯燃油汽车。中国海运进口原油中超半数来自中东地区，其中四分之一来自伊朗。

周一，一艘原油油轮停泊在中国东部山东省青岛市某港口的一处油码头附近。

Gig workers, many of whom use their cars to ferry people around, are expected to be some of the drivers most effected by rising gas prices. Drivers for companies like Didi Chuxing, the ride hailing giant, and JD.com, the logistics company, will come under financial pressure unless the platforms increase delivery fees or implement fuel surcharges to pass on the additional costs to customers.

许多零工从业者依靠自有车辆载客出行，预计将是受油价上涨冲击最大的群体。除非网约车巨头滴滴出行、物流企业京东等平台上调配送费，或征收燃油附加费，将额外成本转嫁给消费者，否则这些司机将面临经济压力。

Also feeling the sting of higher gas prices are truck drivers who rely on older vehicles with internal combustion engines. On Chinese social media, hundreds of truck drivers said they had stopped working or planned to stop working because they could not shoulder the burden of the price increase.

依赖老旧内燃机车的货车司机同样感受到了高油价的刺痛。在中国社交媒体上，数百名货车司机表示，因无力承担油价上涨的负担，已经停运或计划停运。

For many consumers, the rising price of oil is another blow to confidence. China is still contending with a yearslong property crisis that has affected many households that invested their savings in apartments. Young people are still struggling to find jobs.

对众多消费者而言，油价上涨是对消费信心的又一重打击。中国仍在应对持续数年的房地产危机，这场危机影响了众多将积蓄投入房产的家庭，年轻人也仍在艰难求职。

A protracted conflict in the Middle East could not only drag down consumer sentiment, which has recently shown some signs of improving, but also threaten an important market for Chinese exports and investment.

中东地区的长期冲突不仅可能拖累近期显现回暖迹象的消费信心，还会威胁到中国出口与对外投资的重要市场。

Over the weekend in cities across China, drivers started heading to gas stations after Chinese state media warned that higher prices were coming.

上周末，在中国官方媒体预告油价即将上调后，全国多座城市的车主纷纷前往加油站排队加油。

One of them was Shu Gang, 55, who works in the insurance industry in the northeastern city of Qingdao. On Sunday night, he waited in line at a gas station for around 10 minutes before getting fuel, he said. He doesn’t drive very much and usually has to fill up his tank only twice a month, so he’s not too worried.

55岁的舒刚（音）在东部沿海城市青岛从事保险行业。他说，周日晚上，自己在加油站排了约10分钟才加上油。他平时开车不多，通常一个月只需要加两次油，因此并不太担心。

“Prices have indeed gone up a lot,” Mr. Shu said.

“油价确实涨了不少。”舒刚说。

Li Peng, a Didi driver who uses a Toyota Levin he rents from his company, said he planned to rush to get gas after work on Monday. He estimated that his daily fuel expenses would jump to $14.52 (100 renminbi, China’s currency) from $11.62 (80 renminbi) starting on Tuesday. Mr. Li, who refuels every two days, said he already encountered long lines as drivers scrambled to fill up.

李鹏（音）是一名滴滴司机，驾驶的是从公司租赁的丰田雷凌。他表示，计划周一下班后赶去加油。他预计，从周二起，自己每天的燃油开支将从80元人民币升至100元人民币。每两天加一次油的李鹏说，他已经遇到了车主们抢着加油排起的长队。

To offset the higher gas costs, Mr. Li said he expected to spend more hours driving. While he views the increase as “relatively large,” Mr. Li said he believed the burden would not fall solely on drivers. He anticipated that if fuel costs climbed too high, Didi would eventually be forced to raise passenger fares.

李鹏表示，为了抵消上涨的油费，他只能延长每天的出车时长。尽管他认为此次油价涨幅“相当大”，但也相信成本不会全部由司机承担。他预计，如果燃油成本攀升过高，滴滴最终将不得不上调乘客打车的价格。

The war in the Middle East has halted most of the oil and gas trade from the region, forcing countries thousands of miles to contend with their energy supplies suddenly vanishing.

中东战事已导致该地区大部分油气贸易陷入停滞，迫使万里之外的各国应对能源供应骤然中断的局面。

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly a fifth of the world’s energy needs. As Iran effectively blocks shipments, international prices for oil and gas have shot up. That in turn has meant gasoline, jet fuel and other products have become costlier — hurting drivers, business owners and others from Los Angeles to Lahore, Pakistan. As the world becomes gripped by the energy crisis, some nations are feeling the loss more acutely.

波斯湾的能源供应约占全球总需求的五分之一。随着伊朗实质性封锁航运，国际油气价格大幅飙升。汽油、航空煤油等成品油价格随之水涨船高，从洛杉矶到巴基斯坦拉合尔，各地的车主、企业主及其他群体均受到冲击。全球陷入能源危机之际，部分国家受到的冲击尤为严重。

Asian countries are the biggest buyers of Persian Gulf energy

亚洲是波斯湾能源最大买家

In 2024, nearly 21 million barrels of oil a day crossed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world. Four-fifths of that supply went to Asia.

2024年，每天约有2100万桶原油经连接波斯湾与全球市场的狭窄水道霍尔木兹海峡运输，其中五分之四的供应流向亚洲。

China has long been the biggest purchaser of oil and gas from Persian Gulf nations. And with more than a third of its total supply coming from the region, the disruption is significant for Beijing. But other countries are almost entirely reliant on the region for their energy needs.

中国长期以来是波斯湾国家油气资源的最大采购方，全国超三分之一的油气供应来自该地区，因此此次供应中断对北京影响重大。但还有一些国家的能源需求几乎完全依赖该地区。

Pakistan has considered imposing a four-day workweek, and remote school and work, in order to preserve energy stockpiles. A state-led fund in Thailand, to subsidize the cost of fuel when prices surge, plunged into a deficit this month.

巴基斯坦已考虑推行每周四天工作制、线上办公与线上教学，以保存能源储备。泰国用于油价飙升时补贴燃油成本的国有基金本月已陷入赤字。

In India, where the economy depends on the Middle East for roughly 40 percent of the country’s oil imports and 80 percent of its gas, a shortage of cooking gas is squeezing households. And across Asia, fliers are being stranded because airlines running low on jet fuel have canceled thousands of flights.

在印度，全国约40%的原油进口、80%的天然气进口依赖中东，烹饪用气短缺正给普通家庭带来压力。在整个亚洲，由于航空燃油库存告急，航空公司已取消数千架次航班，大量旅客滞留。

Europe has been more insulated, sort of

欧洲一定程度上受冲击较小

Europe has traditionally been less reliant on the Gulf than Asia has been. It used to get most of its natural gas from Russia, but in recent years it has relied more on the United States and Norway. But the continent has had to endure one energy crisis after another in recent years, including from Russia’s war with Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed.

与亚洲相比，欧洲传统上对海湾能源的依赖度更低。该地区曾主要从俄罗斯进口天然气，但近年来更多依赖美国和挪威。不过近几年，欧洲不得不接连应对能源危机，包括俄乌战争及随后的西方对俄制裁。

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of gas, and the sales of its energy products have been significantly restricted while Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine.

俄罗斯是全球第三大产油国、第二大产气国，在莫斯科持续入侵乌克兰期间，其能源产品的销售受到了严格限制。

This current crisis comes as European countries, confronting lackluster economic output, try to rebuild their industrial bases and fend off competition from cheaper Chinese exports.

本轮危机爆发之际，欧洲各国正面临经济增长乏力的困境，试图重建工业基础，抵御价格更低的中国出口商品带来的竞争。

Confronted with soaring prices since its attack with Israel on Iran, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, hoping to ease the global supply and markets in the process. The European Union has not made similar moves.

自与以色列共同袭击伊朗以来，美国面临油价飙升，为此临时解除了对目前在途俄罗斯原油的制裁，希望借此缓解全球供应紧张局面、稳定市场。欧盟尚未出台类似举措。

Parts of Africa will be hit hard

非洲部分地区将遭受重创

注：仅显示从海湾国家进口能源的国家。

African nations, like many other countries in the global south, could feel the disruption unevenly. Seychelles, the island nation off the east coast of Africa, imported almost all of its energy from Gulf states in 2024. Mauritius has had a similar reliance, while Nigeria, an oil-rich state and a member of the OPEC Plus oil cartel, has traditionally imported relatively few fossil fuels from the Middle East.

与众多全球南方国家一样，非洲各国受到程度不一的供应冲击。非洲东海岸的岛国塞舌尔2024年几乎全部能源都从海湾国家进口；毛里求斯对海湾能源的依赖度与之相近。石油资源丰富的欧佩克+成员国尼日利亚则传统上从中东进口的化石燃料相对较少。

But as the war continues, the impact is being felt beyond the imports of oil and gas. The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer, partly because the region’s abundance of energy has spurred the development of factories that make the raw materials for many types of agricultural chemicals.

但随着战事持续，其影响已超出油气进口范畴。波斯湾是全球化肥的核心供应地，部分原因在于该地区充沛的能源供应，推动了各类农用化工原料生产工厂的发展。

A sustained rise in the cost of fertilizer could force governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops or otherwise watch food prices climb. That could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.

化肥价格持续上涨可能迫使南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲国家政府为农作物种植提供补贴，否则只能眼睁睁看着食品价格攀升。这可能会进一步加重许多低收入国家本就沉重的债务负担。

The Americas and elsewhere are feeling broader economic shocks

美洲及其他地区正面临广泛经济冲击

The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. That means the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is much less severe.

美国是全球最大的油气生产国，这意味着中东能源贸易停滞对其造成的冲击要小得多。

But the United States and other countries in the region that do not import great quantities from the Gulf are still feeling economic strain. The jump in oil prices – to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks – has already weighed on other major economic factors.

即使如此，美国以及该地区其他不从海湾大量进口能源的国家依然感受到了经济压力。近几周，飙升至每桶100美元以上的油价已经拖累了其他核心经济指标。

The cost of gasoline has jumped by about a dollar a gallon nationally since the war began. American airlines have begun to cut flights because of fuel costs. Concerns about inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level in three months, just weeks after they fell below 6 percent for the first time since 2022.

战事爆发以来，美国全国汽油均价每加仑上涨了约1美元。因燃油成本高企，美国航空公司已开始削减航班。对通胀的担忧推动抵押贷款利率升至三个月来最高水平，而就在几周前，利率刚自2022年以来首次跌破6%。

If the war drags on, or if oil and gas prices continue to rise, the damage will most likely grow, economists say. It is perhaps one reason why the White House has forcefully insisted that it does not need Middle Eastern oil — and is increasingly trying to use military force to stop Iran’s blockade of it.

经济学家表示，若战事持续，或是油气价格继续攀升，造成的损害大概率会进一步扩大。这或许也是白宫一方面强硬声称美国不需要中东石油，另一方面又愈发频繁地动用军事力量，试图打破伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡封锁的原因之一。

Just after her Air Canada flight landed at LaGuardia Airport late Sunday and just before it collided with a Port Authority fire truck, a piercing sound startled Rebecca Liquori.

在她搭乘的加拿大航空航班于周日晚间降落在拉瓜迪亚机场后、与港务局消防车相撞之前，一阵刺耳的声音让丽贝卡·利夸里吓了一跳。

“The pilot was trying to brake to slow the plane down to avoid the crash, and that made, like, just a huge noise,” said Ms. Liquori, who was sitting in seat 19A. “I’ve never heard it before. It was like a grinding.”

“飞行员当时正全力刹车，想要减速避碰，结果发出了一阵巨响，”坐在19A的利夸里说，“我从未听过这种声音，像是在磨东西。”

Ms. Liquori, 35, a nurse who lives in Baldwin, N.Y., was sitting on the left side of the plane, a CRJ-900 regional jet, by the emergency exit.

35岁的利夸里是一名护士，住在纽约州鲍德温。她当时坐在这架CRJ-900支线喷气机的左侧紧急出口旁。

“A few seconds after that, you hear the collision and we just got jolted,” Ms. Liquori said. “We got thrown forward. And everybody’s screaming.”

“几秒钟后，你就听到碰撞声，我们被猛地甩向前方，”利夸里说，“大家都在尖叫。”

The crash killed both pilots, injured dozens of people — including a flight attendant who was ejected from the plane — and shut down one of the busiest domestic airports in the region until 2 p.m. Monday.

这起碰撞导致两名飞行员不幸遇难，数十人受伤——包括一名被甩出飞机的空乘人员，并使该地区最繁忙的国内机场之一关闭到周一下午2点。

Ms. Liquori said the journey from Montreal had been smooth until a turbulent descent. She said she recalled a flight attendant telling passengers that they shouldn’t take any luggage with them if the flight made an emergency landing, a warning that alarmed Ms. Liquori. The language that the attendant used has become more common among flight crews while they are preparing for landing, according to the Association of Flight Attendants. Then came a shudder as the plane touched down.

利夸里表示，从蒙特利尔起飞的航程原本很平稳，直到下降阶段出现颠簸。她回忆说，一名空乘人员曾提醒乘客，如果飞机要紧急着陆，就不要带任何行李，这个警告让她感到不安。据空服人员协会表示，这种提醒用语在机组为着陆做准备时已越来越常见。接着，飞机触地时传来一阵剧烈抖动。

While Ms. Liquori said she couldn’t see what was happening in the front of the plane, she noticed that other passengers around her were bleeding and bruised. Ms. Liquori said she did not hear flight attendants instruct passengers to open the emergency doors, but she opened a door, fearful that the plane would combust.

利夸里说，虽然看不到飞机前方发生了什么，但她注意到周围的乘客有人流血、有人擦伤。她表示没有听到空乘人员指示打开紧急舱门，但她担心飞机可能会起火，于是自己打开了一扇舱门。

“Unfortunately the flight attendant that was in the front, she got ejected from the plane so we really did not have direction,” Ms. Liquori said. “I did what I was instructed at the beginning of the flight.”

“不幸的是，前排的那名空乘人员已经被甩出飞机，所以我们当时真的没有得到任何指示，”利夸里说，“我只是按照飞行开始时听到的安全指示去做的。”

The flight attendant who was ejected, Solange Tremblay, was still strapped into her seat, her daughter, Sarah Lépine, said in an interview with TVA Nouvelles, a Quebec broadcaster. Ms. Lépine said that one of her mother’s legs was broken and would require surgery, but that no other serious injuries occurred.

被甩出飞机的空乘人员索朗日·特朗布莱当时仍系着安全带坐在座位上，她的女儿莎拉·莱皮纳在接受魁北克广播公司TVA新闻采访时表示。莱皮纳说，她母亲的一条腿骨折，需要接受手术，但没有其他严重伤势。

Nathalie Scott, a spokeswoman for Mitsubishi Heavy industries, which acquired Bombardier’s regional jet program, said the plane was not equipped with emergency slides because the doorsills on CRJ jets are close enough to the ground for passengers to exit safely.

收购了庞巴迪支线客机项目的三菱重工的发言人娜塔莉·斯科特表示，这架飞机没有配备紧急滑梯，因为CRJ系列喷气机的舱门槛离地面很近，乘客可以安全地直接跳下。

Instead, passengers clambered onto the wings of the plane and then hopped down onto the tarmac, Ms. Liquori said.

利夸里说，乘客们于是爬上机翼，然后从机翼跳到停机坪上。

Once out of the plane, she said, she realized the extent of what had just occurred. She said the pilots were heroes.

离开飞机后，她才意识到刚刚发生了多么严重的事故。她称飞行员是英雄。

“They did everything they can to save us and they didn’t save themselves and they couldn’t save themselves,” Ms. Liquori said. “Every time I close my eyes, my heart is racing, I just hear screaming.”

“他们尽了一切努力救我们，却没有救自己，也无法救自己，”利夸里说，“每次我闭上眼睛，心脏就怦怦直跳，耳边全是尖叫声。”

Another passenger, Jack Cabot, 22, said after the plane landed hard, it veered back and forth. “No one was driving at that point,” he said.

另一名乘客、22岁的杰克·卡博特表示，飞机重重落在地上后不停左右摇摆。“那一刻感觉就像没人驾驶一样，”他说。

Mr. Cabot said that, despite the chaos onboard, passengers reacted quickly. They opened the emergency door and evacuated, he said, some with their luggage.

卡博特说，尽管机舱内一片混乱，但乘客们反应迅速。他们打开紧急舱门开始撤离，有人甚至还带着行李。

“No one really knew what was happening, just that it was time to get off the plane,” he said. “I’m a little banged up, but I’m happy I’m OK.”

“没有人真正知道发生了什么，只知道该赶紧下飞机了，”他说，“我身上有点擦伤，但很庆幸自己没事。”

An Air Canada regional jet collided with a fire truck on a runway as the plane was landing at LaGuardia Airport in Queens late Sunday, killing two people and injuring dozens more.

周日晚上，一架在纽约皇后区拉瓜迪亚机场降落的加拿大航空支线喷气机与跑道上的一辆消防车相撞，导致两人死亡，数十人受伤。

Here’s what we know.

以下是我们目前所知的情况。

What happened?

发生了什么？

The fire truck, a Port Authority Aircraft Rescue and Firefighting vehicle, was responding to an unrelated incident when it crossed a runway into the jet’s path, colliding with it in a cloud of smoke and debris around 11:40 p.m. on Sunday, officials said.

据官员表示，消防车是港务局飞机救援与消防车辆，当时正为响应另一起事件穿越跑道，从而进入喷气机的路径，在周日晚上11:40左右发生碰撞，产生大量浓烟和碎片。

The plane, a CRJ-900 jet, was being operated as Air Canada Express Flight 8646 by Jazz Aviation, a regional carrier in Canada, and had flown from Montreal with 72 passengers and four crew members aboard. Images show the plane’s nose mostly sheared off from the impact of the crash, and an overturned fire rescue truck nearby.

这架CRJ-900型喷气机是由加拿大支线航空公司爵士航空(Jazz Aviation)运营的加拿大航空快运8646号航班，从蒙特利尔飞来，机上载有72名乘客和4名机组人员。照片显示，飞机机鼻在撞击中几乎完全被削掉，附近有一辆翻倒的消防救援车。

The plane’s ground speed was around 132 knots (151 miles per hour) when it landed, and it slowed sharply, as is normal, to 21 knots (24 m.p.h.) less than a minute later, according to FlightRadar24, an online flight-tracking service.

根据在线飞行追踪服务FlightRadar24的数据，飞机着陆时的地速约为132节（244公里/小时），随后迅速减速，不到一分钟后降至21节（39公里/小时），属正常情况。

A recording of air traffic control communications at the time, posted on the LiveATC website, appeared to capture the moments leading up to the crash.

LiveATC网站上发布的当时空中交通管制通讯录音，似乎捕捉到了碰撞前的时刻。

In the recordings, a person in the truck requests and receives permission to cross a runway before an air traffic control operator tells the vehicle several times to stop. “Stop, Truck 1, stop!” the controller can be heard saying.

在录音中，消防车上的人员请求并获得穿越跑道的许可，随后空中交通管制员多次指示车辆停止。可以听到管制员在说“停下，Truck 1，停下！”

Who were the victims?

遇难者是谁？

The pilot and co-pilot were killed, and dozens of others were injured, including two officers in the truck, officials said. The Port Authority identified the occupants of the fire truck as Sgt. Michael Orsillo and Officer Adrian Baez.

官员表示，机长和副驾驶丧生，数十人受伤，包括消防车上的两名官员。港务局确认消防车上的乘员为小队长迈克尔·奥西洛和队员阿德里安·巴埃斯。

Forty-one others were taken to the hospital after the crash, said Kathryn Garcia, the executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which owns and operates LaGuardia Airport. Thirty-two of those people had been released as of early Monday, but some others were seriously injured.

纽约和新泽西港务局局长凯瑟琳·加西亚表示，碰撞发生后共有41人被送往医院。截至周一清晨，其中32人已出院，但其余伤者中有人伤势严重。

The accident is being investigated by the National Transportation Safety Board, which had a team at LaGuardia by around 3:30 a.m., Ms. Garcia said.

加西亚表示，国家运输安全委员会正在对事故进行调查，其调查小组于周一凌晨3:30前后抵达拉瓜迪亚机场。

A flight attendant was ejected from the plane.

一名空乘人员被甩出飞机。

Rebecca Liquori, 35, who was sitting on the left side of the plane by an emergency exit, said the plane made “a huge noise” as the pilots braked in an attempt to avoid the crash. “I’ve never heard it before,” she said. “It was like a grinding.”

35岁的丽贝卡·利夸里坐在飞机左侧紧急出口旁，她表示，飞行员在试图刹车避撞时，飞机发出“巨响”。“我从未听过这种声音，”她说，“像是在磨东西。”

“A few seconds after that, you hear the collision and we just got jolted,” Ms. Liquori said. “We got thrown forward. And everybody’s screaming.”

“几秒钟后，你就听到碰撞声，我们被猛地甩向前方。大家都在尖叫，”利夸里说。

A flight attendant, Solange Tremblay, was ejected from the plane while still strapped into her seat, her daughter, Sarah Lépine, told TVA Nouvelles, a Quebec broadcaster. Ms. Lépine said that one of Ms. Tremblay’s legs was broken and would require surgery.

据魁北克广播公司TVA新闻(TVA Nouvelles)报道，空乘人员索朗日·特朗布莱在仍系着安全带的情况下被甩出飞机。她的女儿莎拉·莱皮纳表示，特朗布莱的一条腿有多处骨折，需要接受手术。

Ms. Liquori said the pilots were heroes.

利夸里称飞行员是英雄。

“They did everything they can to save us and they didn’t save themselves and they couldn’t save themselves,” she said.

“他们尽了一切努力救我们，却没有救自己，也无法救自己，”她说。

How will this affect air travel?

这将如何影响航空旅行？

Officials ordered a ground stop at LaGuardia early Monday as emergency vehicles swarmed the damaged jet.

官员们在周一清晨下令拉瓜迪亚机场实施地面停飞，大批紧急车辆涌向受损的飞机。

The airport was closed until 2 p.m., halting traffic at one of the country’s key regional hubs. The first flight after the crash took off at 2:08 p.m., as operations restarted. But officials said travelers should expect residual delays and cancellations and should check with their carriers before leaving for the airport. At a news conference on Monday, officials said the runway where the crash occurred would remain closed as the National Transportation Safety Board conducted its investigation.

作为美国重要区域枢纽之一的拉瓜迪亚机场一直关闭至下午2点。首架航班于下午2:08起飞，运营逐步恢复。但官员提醒旅客，预计仍会有一些延误和取消，需提前与航空公司确认。港务局官员在周一的新闻发布会上表示，事故发生的跑道将在国家运输安全委员会调查期间继续保持关闭。

One of three major airports in the New York City area, LaGuardia is a central hub for regional and domestic travel in the Northeast, with nearly 900 arrivals and departures per day.

作为纽约市地区三大主要机场之一，拉瓜迪亚是东北部支线和国内旅行的中心枢纽，每天有近900架次起降。

More than 400 flights to and from the airport on Monday were canceled by the morning, adding to travel strife at United States airports caused by the partial government shutdown. The brunt of the disruption from Sunday’s crash is likely to fall on regional and domestic travelers, as LaGuardia restricts nonstop flights to within 1,500 miles.

周一上午，已有超过400架次往返该机场的航班被取消，这进一步加剧了各地机场因部分政府停摆而导致的出行混乱。预计受此次碰撞影响的将主要是支线和国内旅客，因为拉瓜迪亚机场起降的直飞航班航程不超过2400公里。

While the United States wades deeper into war in the Middle East, Taiwan is in the middle of a political fight over how to counter China’s growing strength. And big choices facing Taiwan rest heavily on the direction taken by its main opposition group, the Nationalist Party, which is increasingly fractured between politicians who lean more toward Washington and a party leader who envisions a new era of harmony with Beijing.

美国进一步深陷中东战争之际，台湾正发生一场政治的战斗，争论的核心是如何应对中国日益增强的实力。台湾面临的重大抉择在很大程度上取决于其主要反对党——国民党的走向。该党内部日益分裂：一部分政客更倾向于亲近华盛顿，党主席则设想与北京开启一个和谐的新时代。

One likely Nationalist Party contender for the presidency, Lu Shiow-yen, recently completed an 11-day visit to the United States, promoting herself as a solid partner of Washington. By contrast, Cheng Li-wun, the chairwoman of the party, hopes to visit China in the next few months to meet President Xi Jinping, an event that she has said could ease enmity with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its lost territory.

国民党的总统候选人热门人选卢秀燕最近完成了一次为期11天的美国访问，将自己宣传为华盛顿的可靠伙伴。而党主席郑丽文希望在未来几个月访问中国，并会见习近平主席。她表示，此举可能缓解与北京之间的敌意，北京视台湾为其失去的领土。

“I also believe that the other side hopes to resolve cross-strait issues peacefully,” she said at a news conference in Taipei on Monday, referring to the government in Beijing. “We hope to expand peaceful exchanges across the Taiwan Strait on this basis, instead of bringing up past grievances every day to settle old scores.”

“我也相信对岸也希望透过和平的方式，来处理两岸的问题，”她在周一于台北的记者会上表示，其中对岸指的是北京政府。“我们希望去放大在这样的基础上面，扩大两岸的和平交流，而不是每天拿出我们过去的恩怨情仇来算旧帐。”

The Nationalist Party, together with a smaller opposition party, holds the majority in Taiwan’s legislature, giving them the power to approve or block the government’s initiatives, including President Lai Ching-te’s proposal for $40 billion of extra defense funds over eight years, on top of the regular annual spending. The Nationalists are also desperate to win the next presidential election in early 2028 after a decade out of power.

国民党连同一个相对小的反对党在台湾立法院占据多数席位，这赋予他们批准或阻挡政府举措的权力，包括赖清德总统提出的未来八年在常规年度支出的基础上再增加400亿美元国防经费的提案。国民党也迫切希望在失去权力十年后赢得2028年初的下一届总统选举。

Taiwanese lawmakers will start formal negotiations over Mr. Lai’s military spending plan this week, alongside rival plans from the two opposition parties. Those parties both propose more modest additions to military spending, with the option of later increases to buy U.S. weapons. The Nationalists have proposed an initial sum of about $12 billion for an arms package already approved by the Trump administration.

台湾立委本周将开始就赖清德的军费计划进行正式谈判，同时还有来自两个反对党的竞争方案。这些方案都提出较低的军费增额，并保留未来增加以购买美国武器的选项。国民党提议最初拨款约120亿美元，用于特朗普政府已批准的一揽子军售。

Legislators from all of Taiwan’s parties are under pressure from Washington to raise military spending. But accumulated rancor and policy disagreements could slow or even derail a deal, which could dent the Trump administration’s willingness to back Taiwan.

来自台湾所有政党的立委都面临华盛顿要求提高军费支出的压力。但积累的怨恨和政策分歧可能减缓甚至破坏协议达成，这会削弱特朗普政府支持台湾的意愿。

“A failure to get the budget through would be taken as a sign that Taiwan is simply too politically fractured, and too strategically complacent, to be a full-fledged participant in its own defense,” said Hal Brands, a professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University who has been following Taiwan’s defense budget debate. “There’s not much appetite in Trump’s Washington for helping allies and partners of that sort.”

“如果预算无法通过，将被视为台湾在政治上过于分裂、在战略上不够进取，无法全面投入于自己的防御，”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学全球事务教授哈尔·布兰兹表示，他一直在关注台湾的国防预算辩论。“特朗普的华盛顿对帮助这类盟友和伙伴缺乏兴趣。”

Months of political deadlock in Taiwan have already exposed polarization, including in attitudes toward the United States and China. The tensions are surfacing in the Nationalist Party, also called the Kuomintang or K.M.T., which long promoted itself as the party that can stay on good terms with both Washington and Beijing.

台湾数月的政治僵局已暴露了极化现象，包括对美国和中国态度的分歧。这些紧张关系正在国民党内部显现，该党长期自诩为能同时与华盛顿和北京保持良好关系的政党。

Centrists see keeping warm ties with Washington as a priority, even while they also want more contact with Beijing. Ms. Lu, the potential presidential contender, sought to underline that message during her visit to the United States, said Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, who advised her on the trip.

中间派认为当务之急是保持与华盛顿的亲密关系，尽管他们也希望与北京有更多接触。为卢秀燕此行提供了建议的翁履中表示，这位潜在总统竞争者在访美期间试图强调这一信息。

“I think the major signal Mayor Lu tried to send through her visit was that the K.M.T. remains, at its core, a traditionally pro–U. S. party,” said Mr. Weng, who is a professor at Sam Houston State University in Texas.

“我认为卢市长通过此次访问试图传达的主要信号是，国民党在核心上仍是传统亲美政党，”现任得州萨姆休斯顿州立大学教授的翁履中说。

去年，台湾军方在屏东试射了美国制造的HIMARS火箭系统。

Ms. Lu, the mayor of Taiwan’s second-largest city, Taichung, emphasized in Washington that she supported an approach to defense that “should not disappoint our friends in Washington,” Mr. Weng said.

他说，作为台湾第二大城市台中的市长，卢秀燕在华盛顿强调，她支持的防务方式“不应让我们在华盛顿的朋友失望”。

Ms. Cheng, the party chairwoman, said that she would also help secure Taiwan’s safety by visiting Beijing and meeting Mr. Xi, and then visiting Washington. Ms. Cheng said she also wants good ties with the United States, including through continued arms purchases, and she said that the Nationalist Party was united. But for some experts, Ms. Cheng’s focus on Mr. Xi amounts to keeping the United States at a distance.

党主席郑丽文表示，她也将通过访问北京会见习近平、然后访问华盛顿来帮助确保台湾的安全。郑丽文说，她也希望与美国保持良好关系，包括继续采购武器，并称国民党是团结的。但对一些专家而言，郑丽文对习近平的关注相当于与美国保持距离。

“There is a clear contrast here between the kind of politician whose first visit would be to the United States, and those who believe it’s more important to engage Beijing first,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, who hosted Ms. Lu for a meeting during her U.S. trip. The contrast, he said, showed “the differences within the party regarding how Taiwan should balance these relationships.”

“这里存在鲜明反差：一种政客的首次访问是去美国，而另一种则认为先接触北京更重要，”纽约外交关系协会亚洲研究研究员戴维·萨克斯表示，他在卢秀燕访美期间为她主办了一次会议。他说，这种对比显示了“党内关于台湾如何平衡这些关系的分歧”。

Ms. Cheng has argued that her approach to Beijing will attract more voters, especially if she can bring back assurances from a meeting with Mr. Xi. China’s leaders have not confirmed that a meeting is on the cards. Ms. Cheng has not visited Beijing since 2023, when she said she went there as a tourist.

郑丽文主张，她与北京打交道的方式将吸引更多选民，特别是如果她能从与习近平的会晤中带回保障。中国领导人尚未确认将安排这样一场会晤。郑丽文自2023年以游客身份访京后未再前往那里。

“My hope is that Taiwan can play a pivotal role in fostering peace along the First Island Chain,” Ms. Cheng said, referring to the clusters of islands, including Japan’s, that face China’s eastern coast.

“我希望这个第一岛链，台湾能够发挥和平的轴心观、轴心角色，”郑丽文说，其中的第一岛链指的是中国东海岸外的一个包括日本在内的岛屿群。

It was a sunny Saturday in the West Portal neighborhood of San Francisco. The public library was bustling, and so were the cafes and ice cream shops.

那是一个阳光明媚的周六，旧金山西门社区。公共图书馆里人来人往，附近的咖啡馆和冰淇淋店也同样热闹。

Just outside the library, a mother, a father and their two little boys waited for a bus ride to the San Francisco Zoo. A perfect way, the couple figured, to celebrate their fourth wedding anniversary.

就在图书馆外，一对夫妇带着两个小男孩在等公交车去旧金山动物园。他们觉得这是庆祝结婚四周年纪念日的最完美方式。

Then, at 12:12 p.m. on March 16, 2024, a boom shook the neighborhood, and the horror that followed still reverberates in San Francisco today.

然后，2024年3月16日中午12:12，一声巨响震撼了整个社区，随之而来的恐怖至今仍在旧金山回荡。

A white Mercedes S.U.V. had traveled at highway speeds before it jumped the sidewalk, sheared a street pole, smashed a bolted-down garbage can and obliterated the bus stop. It finally came to a halt when it crashed into a fire hydrant.

一辆白色梅赛德斯SUV以高速公路级的速度行驶，突然冲上人行道，撞断一根路灯杆，碾碎一个固定在地上的垃圾桶，完全摧毁了公交车站。最后，它撞上一根消防栓才停了下来。

The father, Diego Cardoso de Oliveira, was flung into the air and landed more than 100 feet away, witnesses estimated. The mother, Matilde Ramos Pinto, was trapped in the wreckage, fading in and out of consciousness.

父亲迭戈·卡多索·德·奥利维拉被甩到空中，目击者估计落地时距离现场超过30米。母亲马蒂尔德·拉莫斯·平托被困在车祸残骸中，意识时断时续。

Nearby, her baby cried.

她的小婴儿在一旁哭泣。

“I was talking to the lady and making sure she stayed awake,” recalled Rolf O’Grady, who rushed to the scene after hearing what he thought was a bomb going off. “She didn’t say a word. I just kept telling her that her baby was fine.”

“我当时在跟那位女士说话，想让她保持清醒，”罗尔夫·奥格雷迪回忆道。他在听到一声他以为是炸弹爆炸的巨响后冲到现场。“她一句话也没说。我只是不停地告诉她，她的宝宝没事。”

Her 3-month-old, Cauê, was not fine. Neither was Joaquim, the couple’s 20-month-old toddler, his body launched with his father’s and left unrecognizable.

她三个月大的婴儿卡埃并非没事。20个月大的孩子若阿金也一样，他和父亲一起被抛向空中，已经面目全非。

Within days, all four would be dead. The baby was the last to go after his two grandmothers made the decision to pull him from life support, holding his tiny hands as he died.

几天之内，四个人全部离世。婴儿是最后一个走的，他的两位祖母决定拔掉维持生命的仪器，握着他小小的手，看着他咽下最后一口气。

Two years later, the woman who killed them, Mary Fong Lau, is expected to plead no contest on Friday to four felony counts of vehicular manslaughter. In exchange, Ms. Lau, 80, is likely to avoid prison or home detention.

两年后，导致他们死亡的肇事者——80岁的玛丽·方·刘（音）——预计将于周五就四项过失杀人罪提出不抗辩。作为交换，刘女士很可能避免入狱或居家监禁。

For many San Franciscans who still think about the tragedy, it raises a question: How should a driver be punished for killing four people?

对于许多仍对这场悲剧念念不忘的旧金山人来说，这引发了一个问题：一名司机杀死四个人，应该受到怎样的惩罚？

‘Forever imprisoned in the grief’

“永远被悲伤囚禁”

In the two years since the crash, the case has progressed through San Francisco Superior Court. The parties agree that Ms. Lau was not texting or talking on her phone before the crash. Her car did not malfunction. She was not under the influence of alcohol or drugs, and there was no obvious medical incident.

事故发生两年后，此案在旧金山高等法院取得进展。双方一致同意，刘女士在撞车前没有发短信或打电话。她的车没有机械故障。她没有酒驾或吸毒，也没有明显的医疗突发事件。

But she was driving as fast as 75 miles per hour, three times the speed limit, before she killed four people.

但她在撞死四人之前，车速高达每小时75英里，是限速的三倍。

Judge Bruce Chan said in a hearing last month that he intended to accept Ms. Lau’s plea of no contest to the manslaughter counts. In exchange, he would sentence her to two to three years of probation. Prison time would amount to “mere vengeance,” he said, and home detention and community service would not serve any purpose.

法官布鲁斯·陈（音）在上个月的一次听证会上表示，他打算接受刘女士对过失杀人罪的不抗辩。作为交换，他将判处她两至三年缓刑。他称判处监禁只是“单纯的复仇”，而居家监禁和社区服务也毫无意义。

The judge cited Ms. Lau’s age, her lack of a criminal record and her expressions of remorse shortly after the crash.

法官援引了刘女士的年龄、无犯罪记录，以及事故发生后不久表达的悔意。

“My feeling is that just as this family is forever imprisoned in the grief and the tragedy, Ms. Lau is also going to spend the rest of her days living with the knowledge of the harm that she caused to so many others,” Judge Chan said, according to a court transcript.

“我的感觉是，正如这个家庭永远被悲伤和悲剧所囚禁，刘女士的余生也将时刻记得她对众多人造成的伤害，”布鲁斯·陈根据法庭笔录说道。

玛丽·方·刘预计将于周五就四项车辆过失杀人罪提出不抗辩。作为交换，80岁的刘女士很可能免于入狱或居家监禁。

Judge Chan, through a court spokeswoman, declined to comment further.

他通过法院发言人拒绝了进一步置评。

The victims’ relatives are outraged. Some are flying from as far as Portugal for a vigil at the crash site on Thursday and for the court hearing on Friday afternoon.

受害者家属愤怒不已。有些人从葡萄牙等地远道飞来，将于周四在事故现场举行守夜仪式，并在周五下午出席法庭听证。

They have collected more than 12,000 signatures on a petition condemning the sentence proposed by Judge Chan.

他们已收集超过1.2万个签名，在一份谴责布鲁斯·陈拟议量刑的请愿书上签名。

‘Did I kill that baby?’

“我杀了那个婴儿吗？”

Ms. Lau’s lawyer, Seth Morris, said that she does not know what happened the day of the crash except that she was driving to deliver soup to her brother in West Portal — and then her car was accelerating and she could not stop it.

刘女士的律师塞斯·莫里斯表示，她除了知道自己在开车去西门给弟弟送汤之外，对那天发生的事一无所知——然后她的车开始加速，她刹不住。

She is depressed and has said she wishes she could trade places with the family she killed, Mr. Morris said in an interview.

莫里斯在采访中说，她现在很抑郁，并表示希望能与她杀死的那个家庭互换位置。

“She’s living this life in her own mental prison at this point,” he said.

“她现在活在自己的精神监狱里，”他说。

这场导致一家四口不幸遇难的惨烈车祸令旧金山市民深感悲痛。

Ms. Lau grew up in poverty in China, then immigrated to San Francisco for an arranged marriage and worked long hours as a seamstress in the city’s Chinatown, Mr. Morris said. She eventually managed to buy her own factory.

莫里斯说，刘女士在中国的贫困环境中长大，后来通过包办婚姻移民到旧金山，在唐人街没日没夜地做裁缝活，最终自己开了一家工厂。

Her husband died in a car crash when she was 25, Mr. Morris said. A death notice in The San Francisco Chronicle from Aug. 10, 1970, noted the passing of Jenson Lau, 26, the husband of Mary Lau, though it did not say how he died.

莫里斯说，她25岁时丈夫在一场车祸中去世。《旧金山纪事报》1970年8月10日的讣告提到玛丽·刘的丈夫詹森·刘26岁去世，不过没有说明死因。

They had three children, Jeffrey, James and Janice, whom Ms. Lau raised alone. Mr. Morris declined to make his client available, and the children did not respond to interview requests.

他们有三个孩子，杰弗里、詹姆斯和詹妮丝，这些孩子都由刘女士独自抚养长大。莫里斯拒绝让他的当事人接受采访，孩子们也没有回应采访请求。

Two years ago, immediately after the crash, Ms. Lau sat on the sidewalk with a bystander, Madeline Monge.

两年前，事故刚发生后，刘女士与路人马德琳·蒙格一起坐在人行道边。

It was the boom that drew Ms. Monge to the scene, so loud that she thought two trains might have collided in the nearby subway station. She ran there and, after seeing that the crash victims were being attended to, turned to the S.U.V., its airbags deployed and steam emanating.

蒙格是被那声巨响吸引过来的，声音之大让她以为是附近地铁站里两列火车相撞了。她跑过去，看到事故受害者已接受救助后，便转向那辆SUV——安全气囊已弹出，车身正冒着热气。

There, she found Ms. Lau bleeding and in shock and helped her leave the vehicle.

她发现车中的刘女士正在流血并处于震惊状态，便帮她离开车辆。

“It took her probably 30 to 45 minutes to really kind of get out that she had just messed up,” Ms. Monge said. “She hit the gas when she thought she was hitting the brake.”

“大概过了30到45分钟，她才真正明白自己搞砸了，”蒙格说。“她以为自己在踩刹车，结果踩了油门。”

Ms. Lau broke down when an ambulance arrived to take the baby away.

当救护车来接走婴儿时，刘女士崩溃了。

“She reached out her arms and was crying, ‘Did I kill that baby? Did I kill that baby?’” Ms. Monge recalled.

 “她伸出双臂哭喊：‘是我杀了那个婴儿吗？我杀了那个婴儿吗？’”蒙格回忆道。

Extra layer of trauma

额外的创伤

So what would be a fair punishment for Ms. Lau? There is agreement among the family’s relatives, the district attorney and witnesses at the crash site that keeping an 80-year-old woman out of prison makes sense.

那么，对刘女士来说，什么样的惩罚才算公平？受害者家属、区检察官和现场目击者都同意，让一位80岁的老妇人免于入狱是合理的。

Still, in San Francisco, relatives described the proposed sentence as too light, and as an extra layer of trauma that made losing their loved ones feel even worse.

尽管如此，在旧金山，家属们认为拟议的量刑太轻，并称这给他们带来了额外的创伤，使失去亲人的痛苦更加难以承受。

The district attorney, Brooke Jenkins, has filed a motion asking Judge Chan to reconsider. While she does not think that Ms. Lau intended to hurt anybody, she believes Ms. Lau deserves punishment beyond probation.

区检察官布鲁克·詹金斯已提交动议，要求陈法官重新考虑。虽然她不认为刘女士有意伤害任何人，但她认为刘女士应受到比缓刑更严厉的惩罚。

“We feel absolutely no sense of justice and that these lives were lost in vain,” Ms. Jenkins said.

“我们完全感觉不到正义，觉得这些生命白白逝去了，”詹金斯说。

The family of the victims is frustrated that Ms. Lau will not be required to plead guilty or issue a formal apology in court. The judge said he was waiving those actions because they could affect civil suits that the family has filed against her.

受害者家属对于刘女士无需在法庭上认罪或正式道歉感到沮丧。法官表示，他豁免这些要求，是因为它们可能影响家属对她提起的民事诉讼。

And under the terms suggested by Judge Chan in court last month, Ms. Lau would be eligible to regain her driver’s license after serving probation.

根据陈法官上个月在法庭上提出的条款，刘女士在缓刑期满后将有资格重新获得驾照。

The district attorney and extended family say that home detention and mandated community service would be appropriate — and that Ms. Lau’s driver’s license should be permanently revoked.

区检察官和受害者的大家庭成员认为，居家监禁和强制社区服务才是合适的——而且刘女士的驾照应永久吊销。

The family is skeptical of her remorse. They say that shortly after the crash Ms. Lau transferred several properties in California out of her trust and into the names of family members. After those transactions were called out in the civil suit, she transferred them back. Mr. Morris said she had been given bad advice by a previous lawyer.

家属对她的悔意持怀疑态度。他们说，事故发生后不久，刘女士将加州几处房产从信托中转到家人名下。这些转移在民事诉讼中被指出后，她又转了回来。莫里斯称这是前任律师给的糟糕建议。

He said in the last hearing that he had offered “a process of restorative justice where we could all talk and honor each other’s harms,” but that the plaintiff’s lawyer had rejected it. Neither the district attorney or the lawyer in the civil suit say they have received such an offer.

他在上次听证会上表示，他曾提出“一种修复性司法程序，让我们能够交谈并尊重彼此受到的伤害”，但原告律师拒绝了。区检察官和民事诉讼律师均表示未收到此类提议。

Denise Cardoso de Oliveira, Diego’s older sister, has flown from Florida to San Francisco to attend every hearing in the case, tallying nine so far. She said she has longed for some personal gesture from Ms. Lau.

迭戈的姐姐丹妮丝·卡多索·德·奥利维拉从佛罗里达赶到旧金山，参加了迄今为止的九场听证。她说她一直渴望刘女士能做出一些个人姿态。

“She has never spoken to us,” Ms. Cardoso de Oliveira said. “She has never made eye contact. I have never heard her say, ‘I’m sorry.’”

“她从来没有跟我们说过话，”卡多索·德·奥利维拉说。“她从来没有正眼看过我们。我从来没有听她说过‘对不起’。”

President Trump has postponed his visit to China by several weeks, blaming the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. The trip, which could help stabilize the U.S. relationship with Beijing and revive wider exchanges, should not be allowed to slide indefinitely.

特朗普总统已将其访华行程推迟数周，理由是美国与以色列对伊朗的战争。此次访问本有助于稳定美中关系、重启两国更广泛的交流，它不应无限期拖延下去。

Washington needs to restore regular travel by American policymakers to China, which dropped sharply in recent years, just as the economic and geopolitical competition between the two countries has intensified.

华盛顿需要恢复美国政策制定者对华的常态化出访——近年来这类出访大幅减少，而美中之间的经济与地缘政治竞争却在加剧。

No American president has set foot in China since Mr. Trump did in 2017, during his first term. That absence highlights a simple but troubling truth: Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China.

自特朗普2017年首次任期内访华后，再无美国总统踏足中国。这一空白凸显了一个简单却令人不安的事实：美国人无休止地讨论着必须与这个最大的对手竞争，以及如何竞争，却有许多美国政策制定者从未去过中国。

U.S. officials are left grappling with an abstraction. This can lead to serious misjudgments, such as the escalating tariffs Mr. Trump imposed last year, expecting they would bring China to its knees. In the end, he retreated after Beijing showed it had the tools and capacity to push back.

美国官员只能对着一个抽象概念，这极易导致严重误判。比如特朗普去年不断升级的关税措施，本以为能让中国屈服，最终却在中国展现出反制能力与手段后不得不退让。

Seeing China up close — its manufacturing juggernaut, technological and innovative capacities, state-of-the-art infrastructure and state-fostered industrial ecosystems — would help prevent such miscalculations and hopefully lead to U.S. policy that is less complacent, less theatrical and more focused on what’s actually needed to revitalize American industry.

近距离观察中国——它的制造业巨头、科技创新实力、最先进的基础设施，以及国家培育的产业生态——有助于避免此类误判，也有望让美国政策少些自满、少些作秀，更聚焦于振兴美国产业的实际所需。

Congressional travel to China used to be routine. According to data compiled by the scholar Scott Kennedy, 177 U.S. lawmakers took part in 59 congressional delegations to China from 2010 to 2019. Such exchanges have essentially stopped since 2020. Likewise, American presidents since Ronald Reagan had gone to China at least once during their terms, but that ended with Joe Biden, who never visited as president.

国会议员访华曾是常态。学者甘思德(Scott Kennedy)汇编的数据显示，2010至2019年间，共有177名美国议员参与59个国会代表团访华。这类交流自2020年起基本停滞。同样，自里根以来的历任美国总统在任期内至少访华一次，但这一惯例在拜登任内被打破，他从未以总统身份访华。

This matters more than you might think. Richard Nixon’s visit in 1972 ended decades of estrangement, and subsequent congressional delegations contributed to the normalization of U.S.-China relations in 1979. Cold War-era visits to the Soviet Union — by presidents and members of Congress — were crucial in helping the United States gather information, manage tensions and sustain dialogue on crucial issues such as arms control.

这一点的重要性远超想象。1972年尼克松访华结束了两国数十年的隔绝，后续国会代表团的访问推动了1979年美中关系正常化。冷战时期，历任总统与国会议员对苏联的出访对于帮助美国搜集信息、管控紧张局势、维持军控等关键议题对话至关重要。

Official travel to China was cut off by the pandemic and has yet to recover, because of factors such as tighter government control over Chinese society, Beijing’s experiment with a more combative so-called wolf warrior diplomacy a few years ago and mounting tension between the two countries. China’s periodic imposition of exit bans on U.S. citizens and the imposition of sanctions on government officials on both sides have further chilled the atmosphere. China became toxic in Washington; visiting there risked inviting a political backlash. The political climate has also sharply curtailed the number of Americans going to China for tourism, study and scholarly exchange.

疫情切断了官方对华出访，至今仍未恢复，背后原因包括中国社会受到政府更严格的管控、前几年北京推行更具对抗性的所谓战狼外交，以及两国紧张局势不断升级。中国不时对美国公民实施出境禁令、双方相互制裁政府官员，进一步让两国氛围趋于冷淡。中国在华盛顿成了“毒药”，访华可能招致政治反噬。这种政治气候也大幅削减了美国民众赴华旅游、留学与学术交流的数量。

This situation does not serve American interests. Seeing China as it is will help the United States judge where to compete with China, where to cooperate and how to strengthen its own foundations.

这种局面不符合美国利益。看清真实的中国才有助于美国判断在哪些领域与中国竞争、在哪些领域与中国合作，以及如何夯实自身根基。

To restore American competitiveness, Congress in 2022 passed the CHIPS and Science Act to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and the Inflation Reduction Act, with its support for renewables, electric vehicles and battery supply chains. But much more needs to be done to build U.S. engineering talent, its power infrastructure and industrial base to compete long term with China’s scale and dynamism.

为恢复美国竞争力，国会于2022年通过《芯片与科学法案》以提振美国半导体制造，通过《通胀削减法案》支持可再生能源、电动汽车与电池供应链。但要长期抗衡中国的规模与活力，美国在工程人才培养、电力基础设施建设与产业基础打造上仍需付出更多努力。

That becomes clear when you see firsthand the modernity of China’s factories, the expertise of its scientists and technologists and the integrated production ecosystems behind its world-beating battery, electric vehicle and biotechnology sectors and other industries of the future.

亲眼目睹中国工厂的现代化程度、科学家与技术人员的专业能力，以及其领先全球的电池、电动汽车、生物技术等未来产业背后的一体化生产生态系统之后，就会明白这一点。

We regularly travel to China and often brief policymakers in Washington about what we’ve seen. They lean in most when we describe our recent conversations with leaders and experts in China about how its system works and the internal debates and competing interests behind the state media headlines. American officials should be having these experiences themselves.

我们经常前往中国，并时常向华盛顿的政策制定者汇报见闻。当我们讲述与中国领导人、专家的近期对话，剖析其体制运作、官方媒体报道背后的内部争论与利益博弈时，他们总是格外专注。美国官员本应亲身前去体验这些东西。

After traveling to Shanghai in September, Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, said he hadn’t realized how “advanced” the city was, and concluded, “We need far more trips to China.” Many others have returned from China recently with similar impressions.

加州民主党众议员罗·卡纳9月访问上海后表示，此前并未意识到这座城市如此“先进”，并总结道：“我们需要更多访华行程。”其他还有许多人士近期从中国归来时也有类似感受。

Firsthand engagement can make clear to Beijing that certain American concerns are shared across party lines. When Senator Charles Schumer, Democrat of New York, traveled there as part of a rare delegation in 2023, his bipartisan group pressed President Xi Jinping on controlling fentanyl precursor chemicals, adding to a broader diplomatic effort that led to a commitment from Beijing to do more.

亲身接触能让北京清楚地意识到，美国的某些关切是两党共识。2023年，纽约州民主党参议员查尔斯·舒默率领一个罕见的跨党派代表团访华时，就管控芬太尼前体化学品问题向习近平主席施压，这一行动配合更广泛外交努力，最终促使北京承诺采取更多行动。

Former Representative Mike Gallagher once dismissed diplomacy with China as “zombie engagement” — empty talk with no meaningful outcomes. But at the very least, dialogue can yield useful clues about Chinese thinking and build personal relationships that may prove useful in a crisis.

前众议员迈克·加拉格尔曾将对华外交斥为“僵尸接触”——空有对话、毫无实质成果。但至少，对话能提供了解中方思路的有用线索，并且建立个人关系，这些在危机时刻可能派上用场。

One step Mr. Trump should take is to direct Secretary of State Marco Rubio to restore the China travel programs that were previously authorized under the Mutual Educational and Cultural Exchange Act, which provides a legal framework for federal employees to participate in exchanges funded by foreign governments.

特朗普应当采取一项举措，指示国务卿鲁比奥恢复此前依据《相互教育与文化交流法案》获批的赴华交流项目，该法案为联邦雇员参与外国政府资助的交流提供了法律框架。

As secretary of state, Mike Pompeo saw those programs as “propaganda tools” for Beijing and shut them down in 2020. We should, of course, always remain cleareyed about Chinese motives. But to suggest that the routine hospitality of a foreign government will turn American policymakers into apologists is an insult.

前国务卿庞皮欧将这些项目视为北京的“宣传工具”，于2020年予以叫停。当然，我们始终应清醒看待中国的动机。但若声称外国政府的常规接待会让美国政策制定者变成对方的辩护者，这实属侮辱。

The answer is not to end these visits but to make them more transparent and reduce the risks of espionage and undue influence. This can be done by requiring prompt disclosure of trips’ funding, purposes and itineraries; banning the participation of lobbyists; and making predeparture security briefings a standard part of the process.

解决之道不是终止这些访问，而是提高透明度，降低间谍活动与不当影响的风险。可通过要求及时披露行程资金来源、目的与行程安排；禁止游说者参与；将行前安全简报作为标准流程等方式实现。

Restoring regular travel to China will be neither simple nor risk-free. But the greater strategic danger lies in American policies that are based on stale assumptions, secondhand impressions and an incomplete understanding of what China is building.

恢复常态化对华出访既非易事，也非毫无风险。但更大的战略风险在于，美国政策建立在过时假设、二手印象与对中国发展的片面认知之上。

Ever since President Trump began what he now delicately calls his “excursion” into Iran, Washington has been consumed by the question of when he would call it a day — even if many of his war goals remain unaccomplished.

自从特朗普总统开始了他现在委婉地称为对伊朗的“远足”以来，华盛顿一直纠结于他何时会收手的问题——尽管他的许多战争目标仍未实现。

On Friday evening, as he headed to Florida, Mr. Trump seemed to be designing that much-discussed exit. But he clearly has not yet decided whether to take it.

周五晚上，在前往佛罗里达州途中，特朗普似乎正在设计那个被广泛讨论的退出方案。但他显然尚未决定是否要这么做。

And there is mounting evidence — average gas price approaching $4 a gallon, infrastructure in ruins across the Persian Gulf, a decimated Iranian theocracy digging in and American allies at first rebuffing and now struggling with demands to patrol hostile waters — that the repercussions of Mr. Trump’s excursion may outlast his interest in it.

而且越来越多的证据——平均汽油价格逼近每加仑4美元；波斯湾地区基础设施化为废墟；遭受重创的伊朗神权体制正在负隅顽抗，以及美国盟友起初拒绝、现在正艰难应对在敌对水域巡逻的要求表明——特朗普这次“远足”的后果可能会比他对此事的兴趣持续得更久。

As always, Mr. Trump’s messaging is inconsistent, which his critics cite as evidence that he entered this conflict with no strategy and his followers cheer as strategic ambiguity. With thousands of additional Marines headed to the region and the pace of American and Israeli attacks quickening, Mr. Trump told reporters on Friday he had no interest in a cease-fire because the United States was “obliterating” Iran’s missile stocks, navy, air force and defense industrial base.

一如既往，特朗普发出的信息前后矛盾，批评者将此视为他毫无战略地卷入这场冲突的证据，他的追随者则欢呼这是战略模糊。随着数千名海军陆战队员增援该地区、美以袭击步伐加快，特朗普在周五告诉记者，他对停火不感兴趣，因为美国正在“摧毁”伊朗的导弹库存、海军、空军和国防工业基础。

Hours later, perhaps sensitive to a Republican base understandably nervous about the political effects, he posted on his social media site that “we are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.”

几小时后，或许是察觉到共和党基本盘对政治影响的合理担忧，他在社交媒体上发帖称：“我们正非常接近实现我们的目标，同时我们也在考虑缩减我们在中东的伟大军事努力。”

But his latest list of those objectives left out a few of his previous goals and watered down others. He made no mention of defeating the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which appears to remain in power, along with Mojtaba Khamenei, who has succeeded his father as supreme leader, though he has yet to be seen or heard in public. Mr. Trump also omitted any message to the Iranian people, whom he told only three weeks ago: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

但他最新的目标清单遗漏了之前的一些目标，并淡化了其他目标。他没有提及击败伊斯兰革命卫队，后者似乎仍然掌权，另外还有接替其父成为最高领袖但尚未公开露面或发声的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。特朗普也没有向伊朗人民发出任何信息，而就在三周前他还告诉他们：“等我们完事了，接管你们的政府。它将是你们的。”

And after insisting in the failed negotiations that led up to the war that Iran had to ship all of its nuclear material out of the country — starting with the 970 pounds of enriched uranium that are closest to bomb-grade — he suggested a new goal. “Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability,” he wrote, “and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation.”

在导致战争爆发的失败谈判中，他曾坚持要求伊朗必须将其所有核材料运出境外——从最接近武器级的440公斤浓缩铀开始，而现在他提出了一个新目标。“绝不允许伊朗接近获得核能力，”他写道，“并且始终处于美国能够迅速而有力地应对这种情况的位置。”

上周六，美以空袭后的德黑兰。

That is, essentially, where the United States was after it buried Iran’s nuclear program in rubble last June. The sites have remained under the watchful eye of U.S. spy satellites.

这基本上就是去年6月美国将伊朗核计划夷为平地后的状态。这些地点一直处于美国间谍卫星的监视之下。

Mr. Trump ended the posting with a new demand for American allies, whom he had frozen out of his deliberations before starting the war, and gave no warning to prepare for its consequences. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — the United States does not!” American forces would help, he said.

特朗普以对美国盟友的新要求结束了帖子，他在开战前将盟友排除在决策之外，且未警告他们为后果做准备。“霍尔木兹海峡必须由使用它的其他国家——必要时——进行守卫和巡逻，美国不干！”他说，美军会提供帮助。

“Think of it as the new Trump Doctrine for the Middle East,” Richard N. Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who served on the National Security Council and at the State Department during the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq war, wrote on social media.

“可以称之为中东的新特朗普主义，”曾担任外交关系委员会主席、在波斯湾战争和伊拉克战争期间任职于国家安全委员会和国务院的理查德·N·哈斯在社交媒体上写道。

“We broke it, but you own it.”

“事情是我们搞出来的，但这是你们的事情。”

Mr. Trump’s shifting goals continued into Saturday evening. Just a few days ago, he was calling on Israel to avoid targeting Iranian energy sites, for fear it would lead to an escalating round of retaliatory counter-strikes across the Gulf. But on Saturday, he threatened to hit Iran’s power plants if it did not “FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz” within 48 hours.

特朗普不断变化的目标一直持续到周六晚上。就在几天前，他还呼吁以色列避免袭击伊朗的能源设施，担心这会引发海湾地区一轮升级的报复性反击。但周六，他威胁称，如果伊朗不在48小时内“毫无威胁地完全开放霍尔木兹海峡”，就将打击伊朗的发电厂。

He said that U.S. strikes on Iranian plants would start “WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST.” Iran’s biggest plant appears to be its only operating nuclear power plant, at Bushehr. For decades, nuclear power plants have been considered completely off limits for strikes because of the obvious risk of environmental calamity.

他说，美国对伊朗发电厂的打击将“从最大的那个开始”。伊朗最大的发电厂似乎是其唯一在运行的核电站——布什尔核电站。几十年来，由于明显的环境灾难风险，核电站一直被认为是完全禁止打击的目标。

This is not where Mr. Trump expected to be after three weeks of war.

开战三周后，这并不是特朗普设想的局面。

Foreign leaders, diplomats and U.S. officials who have spoken with the president said that in the first week he voiced expectations that Iran would capitulate. That was clear in Mr. Trump’s demand on March 6 for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”

与总统交谈过的外国领导人、外交官和美国官员表示，在第一周，他曾表示伊朗有望投降。这一点在特朗普3月6日要求伊朗“无条件投降”时就很明显。

The demand was mystifying, said one European diplomat with long experience dealing with Iran, given the country’s competing power centers, its national pride and a Persian state that has existed within the rough boundaries of modern-day Iran, enduring many rises and falls, since the days of Cyrus the Great around 550 B.C.

一位长期与伊朗打交道的欧洲外交官表示，考虑到该国相互竞争的权力中心、其民族自豪感以及这是一个自公元前550年左右居鲁士大帝时代起就在现代伊朗大致边界内存在、历经多次兴衰的波斯国家，这一要求令人费解。

(That demand was also missing from his latest set of objectives. The White House has since said that the president does not expect a surrender announcement from Iran, but that Mr. Trump will determine when Iran has “effectively surrendered.”)

（这一要求也从他最新的目标清单中消失了。白宫此后表示，总统不指望伊朗发表投降声明，但特朗普将决定伊朗何时“实际上已经投降”。）

Iran’s refusal to “cry uncle,’’ as Mr. Trump termed it to reporters on Air Force One, has been only one of the surprises to the president in recent weeks.

正如特朗普在空军一号上对记者所说的那样，伊朗拒绝“认输”，这只是总统最近几周遇到的意外之一。

The first was the crisis in the energy markets, which the International Energy Agency has called “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” It has sent Mr. Trump and his aides scrambling. They have promised releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was only 60 percent full, reflecting a lack of planning. Over the past week the Treasury Department has issued licenses for the delivery of Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. In other words, to calm the markets, the president has approved enriching an adversary that is at war with Ukraine, an American ally, and another that is at war with the United States.

第一个是能源市场的危机，国际能源署称之为“全球石油市场历史上最大的供应中断”。这迫使特朗普及其助手仓促应对。他们承诺动用战略石油储备，但该储备本身就只有60%，反映出规划的缺失。过去一周，财政部已发放许可证，允许交付已在海上的俄罗斯和伊朗石油。换句话说，为了安抚市场，总统批准了向一个与美国盟友乌克兰处于战争状态的对手以及另一个与美国处于战争状态的对手输送资金。

So far, the effects are minimal. Brent crude closed at around $112 a barrel on Friday after the Treasury announcements, and Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that if ships were reluctant to make their way through the Strait of Hormuz, prices could remain high into 2027.

到目前为止，效果甚微。财政部宣布后，布伦特原油周五收于每桶112美元左右，高盛周四警告称，如果船只不愿通过霍尔木兹海峡，油价可能持续高企至2027年。

The Iranians clearly understand that market chaos is their one remaining superweapon. On Saturday, Tehran warned it could set fire to other facilities in the Middle East. The United States believes the country entered the war with 3,000 or so sea mines — some of which are believed to have been destroyed — and the United States has focused on destroying small boats in the Iranian fleet that are targeting tankers associated with American allies.

伊朗人显然明白市场混乱是他们仅存的超级武器。周六，德黑兰警告称，它可能点燃中东的其他设施。美国认为该国开战时拥有约3000枚水雷——其中一些据信已被摧毁——美国一直专注于摧毁伊朗舰队中那些袭击与美国盟友有关油轮的小型船只。

周四，波斯湾驶向霍尔木兹海峡的货轮。

Mr. Trump’s second surprise was his sudden need for allies. He didn’t imagine it at the beginning of the conflict, the defense minister of one Gulf nation said recently, because he thought the war would be short. But patrolling the strait, and other checkpoints, appears to be a task that could last months or years.

特朗普的第二个意外是他突然需要盟友。一位海湾国家国防部长最近表示，他在冲突开始时没有想到这一点，因为他以为战争会很短。但巡逻海峡和其他检查点似乎是一项可能持续数月或数年的任务。

His third surprise was the absence of any uprising among either the Revolutionary Guards or ordinary Iranians. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in the Oval Office this past week “we are seeing defections at all levels as they’re starting to sense what’s going on with the regime.” But American and European intelligence officials say they have no evidence of such defections — even after Israel targeted, and eliminated, Iran’s supreme leader, its top security and intelligence chiefs and many top military officials.

他的第三个意外是革命卫队或普通伊朗人中都没有发生任何起义。财政部长斯科特·贝森特本周在椭圆形办公室表示，“我们看到各个层面都出现了叛逃，因为他们开始意识到政权发生了什么。”但美国和欧洲情报官员表示，他们没有证据表明存在这种叛逃——即使是在以色列瞄准并消灭了伊朗最高领袖、其最高安全和情报负责人以及许多高级军事官员之后。

Military historians will be dissecting this conflict for a long time. But for now it is clear that Iran is a different kind of challenge. Mr. Trump started using the word “excursion” to suggest this is just a short trip, a brief diversion. But there is no real end in sight.

军事历史学家在未来很长一段时间里将继续剖析这场冲突。但就目前而言，很明显伊朗是一种不同类型的挑战。特朗普开始使用“远足”这个词来暗示这只是一次短途旅行，一次短暂的消遣。但这场“远足”看不到真正的尽头。

While BTS does not have any shows planned in mainland China, fans in the country will likely contribute significantly to the supergroup’s album and ticket sales as it returns from hiatus. Fan clubs based in China are marking the comeback by spending tens of thousands of dollars on celebratory billboards in Seoul.

虽然防弹少年团(BTS)目前没有在中国大陆举办任何演出的计划，但中国粉丝很可能在该超级组合结束暂歇期回归时，为他们的专辑销量和门票销售做出重大贡献。中国当地的粉丝俱乐部正在通过在首尔投放价值数万美元的庆祝广告牌，来庆祝他们的回归。

But the Chinese market for K-pop, while enormous and lucrative, can also be capricious.

但虽然K-pop在中国市场规模庞大且利润丰厚，却也可能相当反复无常。

Case in point: Japanese stars in South Korean pop groups have been absent from some recent concerts and events in China, a pattern that experts say is linked to a diplomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo.

举例来说：韩国流行团体中的日本艺人最近在中国的一些演唱会和活动中缺席，专家认为这一现象与北京和东京之间的外交争端有关。

In a high-profile example, the K-pop boy band Riize performed without one of its six members, the Japanese rapper Shotaro, in Macau last month. “I was so disappointed,” said Maya Choi, 16, a fan who traveled to the show from Beijing.

一个备受关注的例子是，K-pop男团Riize上个月在澳门演出时，缺少了其六名成员之一——日本说唱乐手Shotaro。“我真的非常失望，”来自北京、专程前往现场的16岁粉丝玛雅·崔（音）说。

The organizers apologized and cited “unforeseeable circumstances” for the last-minute cancellation, without mentioning China. But analysts and music critics saw the absence as fallout from a diplomatic rift between China and Japan that began when the Japanese leader suggested that her country could intervene militarily if China moved to seize Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of its territory.

主办方道歉，并以“不可抗力因素”为由解释了这次最后一刻的取消，没有提及中国。但分析人士和乐评人认为，这次缺席是中日外交裂痕的外溢影响，这一裂痕始于日本领导人暗示，如果中国试图夺取台湾——北京声称其为领土的自治岛屿——日本可能进行军事干预。

It is unclear if the cancellations are the result of orders from Chinese officials or precautionary decisions taken by organizers. The Chinese government — which has publicly signaled its restrictions on Japanese trade, tourism and cultural imports — has not said anything recently about K-pop specifically. The artists and entertainment agencies involved in several recent cases either declined to comment or did not respond to inquiries.

目前尚不清楚这些取消是否来自中国官方的命令，还是主办方出于谨慎做出的决定。已公开表示限制日本贸易、旅游和文化进口的中国政府最近并未针对K-pop做出任何具体表态。涉及近期几起案例的艺人和娱乐公司要么拒绝置评，要么未回应询问。

Shotaro（左三）去年在得克萨斯州奥斯汀的Riize演唱会上。

Some K-pop fans say that following their favorite stars increasingly requires an understanding of East Asian geopolitical tensions — and a close reading of news reports and social media chatter about cancellations and snubs.

一些K-pop粉丝表示，追随自己喜爱的明星如今越来越需要了解东亚地缘政治紧张局势——以及仔细阅读有关取消和遭故意冷落的新闻报道与社交媒体讨论。

Shotaro’s absence in Macau “opened my eyes to international politics,” said Rachel Sirait, 21, a Riize fan in Jakarta, Indonesia. “One of the reasons I’ve focused on this is because it’s impacting my hobbies.”

Shotaro在澳门的缺席“让我睁开了眼，看到了国际政治”，印尼雅加达的21岁Riize粉丝蕾切尔·西赖特说。“我关注这件事的原因之一，就是它正在影响我的兴趣爱好。”

In other prominent examples, Le Sserafim, a girl group with two Japanese members that is managed by the same company as BTS, canceled a fan signing event in Shanghai in December. And in January, Rei, a Japanese member of the girl group IVE, was absent from an event in Guangzhou.

在其他引人注目的例子中，由与BTS同一家公司管理的女团Le Sserafim（拥有两名日本成员）于12月取消了在上海的粉丝见面会；1月，女团IVE的日本成员Rei缺席了广州的一场活动。

Fans and experts say these Japanese musicians are getting caught in diplomatic crossfire even though neither the bands nor their labels have publicly sided with China or Japan. (BTS, which has no Japanese members, is scheduled to perform in Hong Kong, a Chinese territory, as part of its world tour. )

粉丝和专家表示，尽管这些日本音乐人所在的团体或所属公司并未公开站队中国或日本，却仍被卷入外交交火之中。（BTS没有日本成员，已计划在中国领土香港演出，作为其世界巡演中的一站。）

K-pop has spread around the world largely thanks to the industry’s efforts to be multinational, said Kim Do Heon, a music critic in Seoul. Groups often have members from Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Thailand and the United States. They often sing in English, Chinese and Japanese.

首尔音乐评论家金到宪（音）表示，K-pop之所以能风靡全球，在很大程度上得益于行业努力实现多国化。团体通常包括来自澳大利亚、加拿大、中国、日本、泰国和美国的成员。他们经常用英语、中文和日语演唱。

But this multicultural ambition has turned K-pop into a minefield of sensitivities. Artists have been accused of cultural appropriation and racism and companies have come under fire over political issues, many of them related to China.

但这种多元文化雄心已将K-pop变成一个充满敏感点的雷区。艺人被指控文化挪用和种族主义，公司也因政治问题饱受抨击，其中许多与中国相关。

In 2016, after the Taiwanese singer Tzuyu from the girl group Twice waved a Taiwanese flag on a South Korean variety show, backlash from people who support the unification of Taiwan with China prompted her to make an apology video declaring, “There is only one China.”

2016年，女团Twice的台湾成员Tzuyu在韩国综艺节目中挥舞台湾旗帜后，引发支持台湾与中国统一的民众强烈反弹，她随后发布道歉视频，宣称“只有一个中国”。

And last year, the girl group Aespa withdrew its Chinese singer, Ningning, from a concert after she posted a picture of a lamp that people in Japan said resembled a mushroom cloud evoking an atomic bomb. Although the band’s label cited a health issue, her exclusion was widely viewed as a response to the controversy.

去年，女团Aespa因中国成员宁宁发布了一盏灯的照片，被日本人认为其形似蘑菇云，让人联想到原子弹，因而被从演唱会中撤下。尽管其所属公司称因健康问题，但她的缺席被广泛视为对争议的回应。

More broadly, China’s authoritarian government has dramatically restricted the industry’s business inside its borders.

总体而言，中国的威权政府已大幅限制该行业在其境内的业务。

South Korean stars used to perform freely to rapturous Chinese crowds in the early 2000s. But in 2016, Beijing started barring South Korean celebrities from performing concerts in China, except on rare occasions and in Chinese territories like Macau. The restrictions followed Seoul’s deployment of a U.S. missile defense system that China viewed as a threat to its national security.

2000年代初，韩国明星可以不受约束地在热情的中国观众面前演出。但2016年起，北京开始禁止韩国明星在中国举办演唱会，仅在澳门等中国领土偶尔例外。这些限制源于首尔部署美国导弹防御系统，中国视之为对其国家安全的威胁。

The stakes for K-pop bands are high because China is the industry’s second-largest export market. Japan accounted for about $81 million in album sales last year, while China trailed behind at about $70 million. The United States followed with $64 million, according to South Korean government data.

这对K-pop团体而言风险很高，因为中国是该行业第二大出口市场。根据韩国政府数据，去年K-pop在日本专辑销量约8100万美元，中国紧随其后约7000万美元，美国为6400万美元。

Analysts at Daishin Securities, a financial services company in Seoul, estimate that major K-pop entertainment companies could earn an additional $150 million to $340 million if the Chinese market fully reopened.

首尔金融服务公司大信金融中心的分析师估计，如果中国市场全面重开，主要K-pop娱乐公司可能额外赚取1.5亿至3.4亿美元。

In a relief to the industry, some K-pop concerts have resumed in China as South Korea’s current president works to improve relations with Beijing. Treasure, a 10-member boy band with Japanese members, performed in Macau this month without complications.

令行业稍感宽慰的是，随着韩国现任总统努力改善与北京的关系，一些K-pop演唱会已在中国恢复。拥有日本成员的10人男团Treasure本月在澳门顺利演出，没有出现问题。

Some hope that China’s recent anti-Japanese campaign may provide an opening for South Korean content in the Chinese market, said Eun Jong-hak, a professor of Chinese studies at Kookmin University in Seoul.

首尔国民大学中国研究教授殷钟学（音）表示，一些人希望中国近期的反日运动能为韩国内容在中国市场打开缺口。

2021年，韩国文化院在北京举办的一场BTS活动。

With an eye on that market, some K-pop producers have spent years establishing operations in China and creating groups with Chinese artists. But Professor Eun said that going too far to appease a particular country’s fans would be risky.

着眼于该市场，一些K-pop制作人多年来在中国建立运营并打造包含中国艺人的团体。但殷钟学表示，过度迎合特定国家粉丝的风险很大。

“K-pop thrives precisely because it operates in a gray area,” he said. “But if it evolves into a form constrained by constantly watching someone else’s reactions, it could hinder its growth on the global stage.”

“K-pop之所以蓬勃发展，正是因为它游走在灰色地带，”他说。“但如果它演变成不断观察他人反应的受限形式，就可能阻碍其在全球舞台上的成长。”

K-pop bands are aware of the risks, and they tend to tread carefully when they tour in China.

K-pop团体意识到这些风险，在中国巡演时往往小心翼翼。

At Riize’s recent concert in Macau, Shotaro traveled with his bandmates but stayed backstage. “I’m sure Shotaro’s watching us here,” his bandmate, Sohee, told the crowd. “Like somewhere here but not here.”

在Riize最近的澳门演唱会上，Shotaro虽随队前往但留在后台。“我相信Shotaro正在这里看着我们，”他的队友Sohee对观众说。“就在这里的某个地方，但不是这里。”

Park Haeseo, an 18-year-old fan in Seoul, was among the Riize fans who were disappointed.

首尔18岁粉丝朴海舒（Park Haeseo，音）也是感到失望的Riize粉丝之一。

“What hurts most is that no one is at fault,” Ms. Park said. “Yet someone gets hurt and someone else has to feel sorry.”

“最痛的是，没有任何人有错，”她说。“却有人受伤，有人不得不感到遗憾。”

Harry Guo built a life that defined success in China. Born in 1971, he came of age in the 1990s, when China deepened its economic reforms. He taught himself computing and found his way into jobs in multinational firms and then Chinese internet giants. By his mid-40s, he was comfortably middle class. He and his wife paid off two mortgages early and sent their daughter to high school and college in Canada.

哈里·郭（音）打造了堪称中国式成功范本的人生。他生于1971年，在90年代中国深化经济改革的浪潮中步入成年。他自学计算机技术，先后入职多家跨国企业，之后又进入中国互联网巨头公司。40多岁时，他已跻身中产阶级，生活安稳，和妻子提前还清了两套房产的房贷，把女儿送到加拿大读高中和大学。

Then Mr. Guo was laid off. Now 55, he has not had a job in more than two years. It’s not for lack of trying. The supermarket near his Beijing apartment won’t hire cashiers over 50. The warehouse where he inquired about work turned him away. An acquaintance who runs a small business told him, with some embarrassment, that his age made him unemployable.

但后来，哈里·郭被裁员了。如今55岁的他已经两年多没有工作。这并非因为他没有努力尝试，他位于北京住处附近的超市不招50岁以上的收银员；他去仓库求职也被拒之门外；一位经营小生意的熟人带着几分尴尬告诉他，他这个年纪，实在没法录用。

For decades, people like Mr. Guo — I call them the reform generation — felt they had struck a straightforward bargain with the system: Work hard, don’t criticize the government, and life will steadily improve.

几十年来，像哈里·郭这样的人——我称他们为改革一代——始终觉得，自己和这个体系之间有一份简单明了的约定：努力工作，不批评政府，生活就会稳步向好。

During the boom years, when China’s economy was growing in double digits, career opportunities were abundant as Chinese and multinational companies competed for talent. A job hop could mean a 30 percent raise. They were the first in their families to go to college, own apartments and rise through corporate ranks. They sent their children to tutors and schools abroad.

在经济腾飞的年代，中国经济保持两位数高速增长，中国企业和跨国公司争相抢夺人才，职业机会遍地都是。跳一次槽意味着薪资可能上升30%。他们是家族里第一代大学生、第一代拥有房产、第一代在企业里一路晋升到管理层的人。他们给孩子报补习班，送孩子出国留学。

The Chinese dream, much like the American one, was the expectation that those who worked hard could have a better life than their parents’ and that their children’s would be better than their own.

这个中国梦和美国梦何其相似：人们相信，只要努力工作，就能过上比父母更好的生活，而自己的孩子又能过得比自己更好。

Now that dream is unraveling. There is little room for upward mobility and a strong downward pull. The housing market has contracted sharply. Private investment has slowed. Multinational companies shuttered or scaled back their operations. Layoffs have spread through technology, media, education and property-related industries since the pandemic, even though China’s official urban unemployment rate has hovered around 5 percent for years.

如今，这个梦正在破碎。社会向上流动的空间微乎其微，向下流动的拉力却无比强劲。房地产市场大幅收缩，民间投资持续放缓，跨国企业纷纷关停或缩减在华业务。尽管中国官方城镇失业率多年来一直徘徊在5%左右，但自疫情以来，裁员潮已蔓延至科技、媒体、教育及房地产相关行业。

Across China’s cities, midcareer professionals who rode the reform-era boom are discovering that the labor market has little use for them. They are too old for an economy that prizes youth, too expensive for firms under pressure and too financially committed — mortgages, tuition, aging parents — to stop working.

在中国的各大城市，乘着改革浪潮之势成长的职场中年专业人士发现，劳动力市场已经容不下他们了。在这个崇尚年轻的经济环境里，他们年纪太大；对于经营承压的企业而言，他们薪资成本太高；房贷、子女学费、年迈的父母这些沉甸甸的经济责任又让他们根本无法停止工作。

Mr. Guo invoked a popular social media meme: “At 40 you’re dead professionally. You’re simply waiting to be buried.” At 55, he feels he has already been interred.

哈里·郭提起了社交媒体上一个广为流传的梗：“40岁职场生涯已死，只剩坐等入土。”55岁的他，觉得自己早已被埋葬了。

When Mr. Guo lost his job in October 2023, he registered his unemployment status with an official administrative office in his neighborhood and was added to a WeChat group labeled “40/50,” a bureaucratic designation for unemployed women over 40 and men over 50. In his residential compound of roughly 1,000 households, the group has grown from four members to 86 in just over a year.

2023年10月失业后，哈里·郭去他家附近的政务服务中心办理了失业登记，被拉进了一个名为“40/50”的微信群。这是一个官僚术语，特指40岁以上的失业女性和50岁以上的失业男性。在他居住的约有1000户人家的小区里，这个群在短短一年多里从最初的四个人涨到了86人。

Age discrimination is so normalized that it has its own name: the Curse of 35, a widely held belief that white-collar workers become liabilities rather than assets once they cross that age threshold. Although Chinese law contains general prohibitions against employment discrimination, it does not clearly define or strongly enforce protections against age bias. A recent WeChat post from a recruitment company in Chongqing was typical: a customer service role capped at 30, a bank call center at 35, a semiconductor plant at 30, a warehouse sorting job at 45.

就业年龄歧视已经如此常态化，甚至有了一个专属的名字：35岁魔咒。人们普遍认为，一旦跨过35岁这个门槛，白领就从企业的资产变成了负担。尽管中国法律有禁止就业歧视的通用条款，但并未明确界定年龄歧视，也缺乏强有力的执法保障。重庆一家招聘公司发布的微信帖子颇具代表性：客服岗年龄上限30岁，银行呼叫中心限35岁以下，半导体工厂限30岁，仓库分拣岗限45岁。

根据某招聘平台2021年的数据，阿里巴巴员工的平均年龄为31岁。

Chinese tech firms skew notably young. According to 2021 data from the job platform Maimai, the average employee age at ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, was 27; at Alibaba and Huawei it was 31. In large U.S. tech firms, the average employee age, according to one analysis, is 37.

中国科技公司的员工年龄结构更是呈现出明显的年轻化倾向。职场社交平台脉脉2021年的数据显示，TikTok母公司字节跳动的员工平均年龄仅27岁，阿里巴巴和华为的平均年龄是31岁。据一项分析显示，美国大型科技公司的员工平均年龄为37岁。

For many, however, the indignity of ageism is only part of the problem. What is more disorienting is that the ladder of mobility they climbed has been pulled from under their feet.

然而对很多人来说，年龄歧视带来的屈辱感只是问题的一部分。更让他们无所适从的是，他们曾经向上攀爬的那架社会上升阶梯已从脚下抽走。

One man, who asked to be identified only by his last name, Ma, spent more than two decades as a reporter and editor at a state broadcast station. He had moved to Shanghai from Inner Mongolia in 2003, part of a wave of provincial talent drawn to opportunities in bigger cities. During their peak earning years, he and his wife, who still works there, brought home roughly $70,000 a year combined. They had two daughters, bought cars and traded up to a bigger apartment.

一位只愿透露自己姓马的男性在一家省级广播电视台做了20多年记者和编辑。2003年，他从内蒙古来到上海，是当年涌向大城市寻找机会的外省人才大军中的一员。在收入巅峰期，他和妻子（她至今仍在该台工作）年收入合计约50万元。他们生了两个女儿，买了车，换了更大的房子。

Then, around 2018, advertising revenue began to dry up. Mr. Ma’s work increased even as pay declined. In 2022, he was diagnosed with a blood disorder requiring a bone-marrow transplant and time off. He returned to work early, against his doctor’s advice, because he had heard that the broadcaster was restructuring and he feared losing his job.

大约2018年，广电行业的广告收入开始枯竭。马先生的工作量越来越大，薪水却不升反降。2022年，他确诊了一种血液病，需要接受骨髓移植，并需要长期休养。可他听说台里正在进行结构调整，害怕丢掉工作，最终不顾医生的建议，提前返岗。

He lost it anyway. On Dec. 31, 2024, he recorded his final broadcast. He now receives about $280 a month in unemployment benefits. He buys discounted vegetables and meat. He has applied for audio editing and journalism roles. No one has called back. He is 47.

可他最终还是丢了工作。2024年12月31日，他录完了职业生涯的最后一期节目。现在，他每个月能领到约2000元的失业金，买菜买肉都要挑打折的，他去申请了各种音频剪辑和新闻相关的岗位，但毫无回音。他今年47岁。

“The moment you’re past a certain age, you become invisible,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what you’ve done or what you know.”

“人一过了某个年纪，就成了透明人，”他说，“你过去做什么、懂什么，全都不重要了。”

When I asked him about his future, he said he’d rather not think about it.

当我问他对未来有什么打算时，他说，宁愿不去想这些。

In a second-tier city in northern China, a 39-year-old network infrastructure salesman had a career that followed the same arc. He asked to be identified only by his nickname, Benchi, which is the Chinese name for Mercedes. He left his village for college, joined a major internet company, got married and bought an apartment in 2019, when real estate prices were at their peak.

在中国北方的一座二线城市，一名39岁的网络基础设施销售员也经历了同样的职业轨迹。他要求只用他的昵称“奔驰”来称呼他，这是梅赛德斯汽车的中文名字。他从农村考上大学，入职一家大型互联网公司，结婚成家，在2019年房价顶峰时贷款买了房。

Benchi was laid off in 2023. After an eight-month search, he found a position paying roughly half his previous salary.

奔驰在2023年被裁员。找了八个月的工作，才找到一份薪资只有之前一半的岗位。

The apartment he purchased has lost at least a quarter of its value and is difficult to sell. His wife, a full-time homemaker, wants to have a second child. He doesn’t see how they can afford another child, and thinks they should cut back on expenses, even cancel their daughter’s dance class.

他当年买的房子如今市值已经跌了至少四分之一，还很难出手。做全职家庭主妇的妻子想生二胎，可他觉得根本负担不起第二个孩子，觉得家里应该缩减开支，甚至连女儿的舞蹈课都想停掉。

“I used to think next year will be better,” Benchi said. “Now I think about how to make sure what I have doesn’t collapse.”

“以前我总觉得，明年会更好，”奔驰说。“现在我想的只是怎么守住手头的东西别崩盘。”

Harry Guo has made peace with his situation. “This has nothing to do with me,” he said. “It’s like the Cultural Revolution or the ’90s mass layoff of the state-owned enterprises. It’s a historical cycle. It just happens to be our turn.”

哈里·郭已经和自己的处境和解了。“这不是我个人的问题，”他说。“就像当年的文化大革命，就像90年代的国企下岗潮。这是历史的周期。这次刚好轮到我们。”

He now believes in making the greatest effort while preparing for the worst. “When the Titanic is sinking,” he said, “all you can do is try to go down with some dignity.”

现在的他信奉一句话：尽最大的努力，做最坏的打算。他说，“泰坦尼克沉没的时候，你能做的无非是尽量有尊严地沉下去。”