Three weeks into a war in the Middle East that is roiling energy markets, Asia is confronting one of the first major consequences of an oil shortage, as jet fuel prices surge to record levels and governments scramble to keep flights running.

中东爆发战争三周后，能源市场剧烈动荡，亚洲正面临石油短缺引发的第一批重大后果：航空煤油价格飙升至历史最高水平，各国政府奋力维持航班正常运行。

Airlines have canceled thousands of flights, stranding tens of thousands of passengers. Major regional energy suppliers, including China, South Korea and Thailand, are restricting exports, while import-dependent countries like Vietnam are forced to ration and call on others for help.

航空公司已取消数千架次航班，数以万计的乘客滞留。包括中国、韩国和泰国在内的主要区域能源供应国开始限制出口，而越南这样高度依赖进口的国家则被迫实施配给，并向他国求援。

The accelerating crisis offers a first glimpse of what happens when oil supplies are suddenly choked off by an unexpected crisis with no clear end in sight. The pain is most acute in Asia, where countries rely on Middle Eastern oil and have limited stockpiles, and experts warn that it may foreshadow more disruptions if the war drags on.

这场加速发展的危机让人们首次窥见当石油供应因一场出人意料且看不到尽头的危机而突然被掐断时会发生什么。亚洲受冲击最为严重，因为该地区国家依赖中东石油，且战略储备有限。专家警告，如果战争持续拖延，未来可能有更多扰动。

“We’re peering into what our gasoline and diesel future is going to look like if this doesn’t get resolved,” said James Noel-Beswick, the head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, a data firm.

“如果这场冲突得不到解决，我们将看到汽油和柴油在未来会是什么样子，”数据公司Sparta Commodities大宗商品主管詹姆斯·诺埃尔-贝斯威克表示。

“Jet is kind of a canary in the coal mine,” he said.

“航空燃油有点像煤矿里的金丝雀，”他说道。

The risk of oil shortages rippled across Asia within days after the United States and Israel went to war against Iran, bringing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. About a fifth of the world’s oil flows through the narrow shipping corridor along Iran’s southern coast, and most of it ends up in Asia.

在美国和以色列对伊朗开战后几天内，通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮航运完全停摆，石油短缺风险迅速波及整个亚洲。全球约五分之一的石油经由伊朗南部海岸这条狭窄航道运输，其中大部分最终流向亚洲。

In Indian cities, people started hoarding liquefied petroleum, widely used for cooking. Bangladesh canceled university classes. The Philippines has moved to a four-day workweek. In Vietnam and Thailand, gas stations posted “sold out” signs as governments with limited stockpiles imposed emergency conservation efforts.

在印度城市，人们开始囤积广泛用于烹饪的液化石油气。孟加拉国取消了大学课程。菲律宾转向每周四天工作制。在越南和泰国，加油站贴出“售罄”告示，储备有限的政府纷纷实施紧急节约措施。

周四，印度勒克瑙，人们排队等待补充液化石油气罐。

Then came a shock no one expected. Jet fuel prices spiked to a record high of more than $200 a barrel, more than doubling the prewar price.

随后又有了一个没人预见到的冲击：航空燃油价格飙升至每桶超过200美元的历史新高，比战前价格翻了一倍多。

“It is at unprecedented levels,” Nikhil Ravishankar, the chief executive of Air New Zealand, told a local media outlet last week after it canceled around 1,100 flights through early May.

“这是前所未有的水平，”新西兰航空首席执行官尼基尔·拉维尚卡上周对当地媒体表示，该公司已取消约1100架次航班，持续到5月初。

Jet fuel prices have risen faster and more drastically than the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, which settled at $108.65 a barrel on Thursday — up about 50 percent since the war started.

航空燃油价格的上涨速度和幅度远超全球油价基准布伦特原油。周四布伦特原油结算价为每桶108.65美元，自战争开始以来上涨约50%。

Jet fuel is often the first refined oil product to run short, in part because it is held to stricter quality standards than other fuels. It must be stored in specialized tanks, making large reserves costly, and it cannot sit for long periods without degrading. As a result, there is less buffer to absorb supply disruptions. And unlike gasoline or diesel, which have more flexible supply chains, jet fuel depends on specific components that are harder to substitute, leaving fewer alternatives when supplies tighten.

航空燃油往往是第一个出现短缺的成品油产品，部分原因是其质量标准比其他燃料更严格。它必须储存在专用罐中，大量储备成本高昂，且不能长期存放，否则会变质。因此，它的缓冲空间较小。与供应链更灵活的汽油或柴油不同，航空燃油依赖一些难以替代的环节，一旦供应收紧，可选替代品极少。

The structure of the global fuel system magnifies the problem. Countries that extract crude oil are often not the ones that refine it. South Korea, for example, is a major exporter of jet fuel, but relies heavily on imported crude, much of it from the Strait of Hormuz.

全球燃料体系的结构放大了这一问题。开采原油的国家往往不是炼油国。例如，韩国是航空燃油的主要出口国，但严重依赖进口原油，其中很大一部分来自霍尔木兹海峡。

Countries like Australia have reduced their refining capacity over the years, leaving them more dependent not only on imported oil but also on other countries’ willingness and ability to refine and sell it.

澳大利亚等国多年来缩减了炼油产能，导致它们不仅更依赖进口石油，还更依赖其他国家的炼油和出售。

本月早些时候，伊朗德黑兰，一处储油设施在空袭中遭到攻击。

China was one of the first countries to restrict exports of refined oil products, including jet fuel, days after the fighting began last month. The move reverberated across the region, where China supplies at least half the fuel consumed in some countries.

中国是战斗爆发后几天内最早限制包括航空燃油在内的成品油出口的国家之一。这一举措在区域内产生连锁反应，在一些国家，中国供应的燃料至少占消费量的一半。

In recent days, Thailand, a major supplier to Vietnam, imposed a temporary ban on certain fuel exports, including jet fuel, while South Korea capped exports of some gasoline and diesel products, further squeezing jet fuel supplies as refineries put a priority on domestic demand.

近日，向越南供应大量燃料的泰国对包括航空燃油在内的某些燃料出口实施临时禁令；韩国则对部分汽油和柴油产品出口设限，进一步挤压航空燃油供应，因为炼油厂优先满足国内需求。

“We’ve seen a ban on crude product exports, and China has been one of the first to do so,” said Neil Beveridge, the director of research at Bernstein, a market research firm, citing conversations with traders and companies in the oil sector. The moves prompted companies to hoard oil on the expectation that the situation would only get worse, he said.

“我们看到了一些原油产品出口禁令，中国是最早采取行动的国家之一，”市场研究公司Bernstein研究总监尼尔·贝弗里奇表示，他援引了与石油行业交易员和企业的对话。这些举措促使企业开始囤积石油，它们预计情况只会进一步恶化。

In Vietnam, fears of price spikes and fuel shortages have incited panic. Hundreds of drivers on motorbikes, the main mode of transport in the country, have lined up late into the night outside gas stations in Hanoi.

在越南，对价格飙升和燃料短缺的担忧引发恐慌。摩托车是该国主要交通工具，数百名骑手深夜在河内加油站排起长队。

The situation has grown so dire that Vietnam’s foreign minister and prime minister have met with ambassadors and senior officials from China, South Korea, Thailand, Japan and the United Arab Emirates, urging them to help, including sharing access to strategic reserves.

局势已变得极为严峻，越南外交部长和总理接连会见中国、韩国、泰国、日本和阿联酋的大使及高级官员，恳请对方提供帮助，包括分享战略储备。

上周，越南河内的一处加油站。该国有近四分之三的航空燃料依赖进口。

Nearly three-quarters of Vietnam’s aviation fuel is imported, mostly from China and Thailand. Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority warned this week that jet fuel shortages could emerge as early as April. Vietnamese airlines are weighing fare increases and flight cuts to cope with rising costs and tightening supplies. Even at higher prices, securing additional fuel remains a serious challenge.

越南近四分之三的航空燃料依赖进口，主要来自中国和泰国。越南民航局本周警告，航空燃油短缺可能最早在4月出现。越南各航空公司正在考虑提价和减班以应对成本上升和供应收紧。即使付出更高价格，也很难得到更多的燃油。

“Access to fuel supplies is extremely difficult at the moment, as it depends entirely on external factors, particularly the conflict in the Middle East,” said Bui Ngoc Bao, chairman of the Vietnam Petroleum Association.

“目前获取燃料供应的难度极大，因为这完全取决于外部因素，尤其是中东冲突，”越南石油协会主席裴玉宝(Bui Ngoc Bao)表示。

For Australia, the current shock is a situation long flagged as a vulnerability because of the nation’s reliance on imports, including in the government’s own review. The country imports 90 percent of its fuel and had about a 32-day supply of jet fuel on hand in early March, according to the country’s energy minister.

对澳大利亚而言，此次冲击凸显了一个很久以前就已经认识到的薄弱环节，政府自身的审查报告就曾指出这一点。该国90%的燃料依赖进口，据能源部长透露，3月初航空燃油储备约为32天。

A local media report that at least one fuel tanker bound for Australia failed to load at a Chinese port in mid-March fanned fears that shortages were ahead.

当地媒体报道称，3月中旬至少有一艘驶往澳大利亚的燃油运输船未能在中国港口装货，这加剧了人们对即将出现短缺的恐慌。

On Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reassured the public that the country’s fuel supply remained secure, attributing any shortages to panic buying, noting that demand had more than doubled in some regions. At the same time, he announced a task force on fuel security, saying he wanted the country to be “overprepared.”

周四，总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯向公众保证国家燃料供应仍然安全，将任何短缺归咎于恐慌性抢购，并指出部分地区需求已增长一倍以上。同时，他宣布成立燃料安全工作组，表示希望国家做到“过度准备”。

上周，澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞在议会发表讲话。他于周四表示：“这场冲突对全球能源市场造成了前所未有的冲击。”

As a part of the measures, Australia will also keep more of the domestically produced fuel in the country, he said.

他表示，其中一项措施是把更多国内生产的燃料留在本国。

“The conflict is an unprecedented shock to global energy markets,” Mr. Albanese said, adding: “Already, Australians are feeling the consequences of this.”

“这场冲突对全球能源市场造成了前所未有的冲击，”阿尔巴尼斯说，并补充道：“澳大利亚人已经开始感受到后果。”

The chief executive of Sydney Airport, which accounts for 40 percent of the country’s jet fuel consumption, said last week that the airport typically held around a 25-day supply. But the reliability of that stock “depends on international shipping lanes, global refining capacity and geopolitical stability,” the executive, Scott Charlton, said in remarks at a summit on renewable fuels.

悉尼机场——占全国航空燃油消费量的40%——首席执行官斯科特·查尔顿上周在一个可再生燃料峰会上表示，该机场通常保有约25天的供应。但他指出，这一库存的可靠性“取决于国际航道、全球炼油产能和地缘政治稳定”。

Of the war now jeopardizing all those fronts, he said: “We’re reminded quickly how interconnected energy, aviation and geopolitics are.”

如今所有这些方面都受到战争威胁，对此他表示：“这很快让我们看到，能源、航空和地缘政治是多么紧密相连。”

Labubu toys, the grinning fuzzy trinkets that became a global sensation last year, are going to be the stars of a Hollywood movie, joining a growing list of beloved characters to jump from store shelves to the big screen. (Hi, Barbie!)

咧嘴而笑的毛绒小玩偶Labubu去年火遍全球，如今即将成为好莱坞电影的主角，加入从货架走向大银幕的人气角色大军。（没错，就是芭比！）

Sony and the Chinese retailer Pop Mart, which exclusively sells the dolls, announced on Thursday that they were developing a Labubu feature film. Paul King, the British screenwriter and director behind “Paddington” and “Wonka,” will produce and direct the film, according to a statement from the companies. King will collaborate with Steven Levenson, who wrote the book for the musical “Dear Evan Hansen,” on the screenplay.

索尼影业与该玩偶独家发售方、中国零售商泡泡玛特于周四宣布，双方正在开发一部Labubu长片。两家公司发布的声明显示，曾执导《帕丁顿熊》(Paddington)和《旺卡》(Wonka)的英国编剧兼导演保罗·金将担任本片的制片人与导演，并与音乐剧《致埃文·汉森》(Dear Evan Hansen)的剧本创作者史蒂文·莱文森合作撰写电影剧本。

The announcement offered few details and did not give a release date. But the film will become the latest to turn beloved toys into the stars of a major movie, along with Barbie, Lego, the Transformers and others.

此次官宣披露的细节极少，也未公布上映日期。但这部影片将成为继芭比、乐高和变形金刚等作之后，又一部将人气潮玩打造成商业大片主角的作品。

The close link between movies and merchandising is often traced back to the immense success of the original “Star Wars” trilogy in the late 1970s and early ’80s, intellectual property experts said.

知识产权领域专家表示，电影与衍生品商业的深度绑定，通常可追溯至上世纪70年代末至80年代初《星球大战》(Star Wars)正传三部曲的巨大成功。

“It took seriously the idea of your intellectual property being commercialized on quite a few different channels,” Emily Hudson, a professor of law at the University of Oxford, said of “Star Wars.”

牛津大学法学教授埃米莉·哈德森谈及《星球大战》时表示：“这部作品真正践行了一套理念，让知识产权在多个不同渠道实现商业化落地。”

But whereas “Star Wars” started as a movie and became a major merchandising success, that model has been inverted lately.

但《星球大战》是先有电影，再有周边衍生品的大获成功，而近年来，这套模式被反转了。

“Now you come up first with the merchandise and then you retrofit some sort of cinematic universe or some television show around the toys,” said Luke McDonagh, a professor at the London School of Economics who researches intellectual property law.

伦敦政治经济学院知识产权法研究教授卢克·麦克多纳说：“现在是先打造出周边商品，再围绕这些玩具构建一套电影宇宙或者电视剧集。”

That strategy has paid huge dividends. “The Lego Movie,” made by Warner Bros. and the Lego Group, took in nearly $500 million at the global box office in 2014, and was followed by a sequel and two spinoffs. Paramount Pictures and Hasbro have turned the Transformers action-figure line into a $5 billion big-screen franchise.

这套策略已带来了巨额回报。华纳兄弟与乐高集团联合制作的《乐高大电影》(The Lego Movie)2014年全球票房近5亿美元，后续还推出了一部续集与两部衍生片。派拉蒙影业与孩之宝则将变形金刚动作玩具系列打造成了票房累计50亿美元的大银幕系列。

The toy company Mattel has moved to turn its brands into full-fledged entertainment brands, including “Barbie,” the live-action adventure starring Margot Robbie that earned nearly $1.5 billion. A “Polly Pocket” movie, co-produced by Reese Witherspoon’s production company, is in the works.

玩具公司美泰已着手将旗下品牌打造为成熟的娱乐品牌，其中就包括玛格特·罗比主演、斩获近15亿美元票房的真人冒险电影《芭比》(Barbie)。由瑞茜·威瑟斯彭的制片公司联合出品的《波利口袋》(Polly Pocket)电影也已在筹备中。

导演保罗·金与Labubu的创作者龙家升。

“Characters are now the most valuable kind of intellectual property,” said Dev Gangjee, a professor of intellectual property law at the University of Oxford. “They straddle all these formats.”

牛津大学知识产权法教授戴夫·甘吉说：“角色是目前最具价值的知识产权类型，它们能横跨所有内容形态。”

The commercial successes and the critical acclaim of many of these movies have changed the dynamics of how these kinds of projects are perceived.

许多这类影片叫好又叫座，也彻底改变了人们对这类项目的认知。

“‘The Lego Movie’ helped break the mold,” Dr. McDonagh said, partly because the toys were already well-loved and well-known among multiple generations.

麦克多纳表示：“《乐高大电影》打破了固有看法，一部分原因在于，这款玩具早已为几代人喜爱和熟知。”

“It established the principle that you could do something that’s so incredibly commercially minded,” he said. “In another era it would have been seen as selling out.”

“它确立了一个准则：你可以做一个商业属性极强的作品。放在过去，这种做法会被视为出卖原则。”

There is also a certain safety for movie executives in creating films about characters that already have a sizable following, Dr. McDonagh said. “These Labubu dolls have been such a success among a certain demographic of children and young adults, they know there’s an audience out there for content related to these dolls,” he said.

麦克多纳博士称，对于片方高管而言，围绕已经拥有庞大粉丝基础的角色拍电影，本身也具备一定的安全性。“Labubu玩偶在特定的儿童与年轻人群体中已经大获成功，片方清楚，和这些玩偶相关的内容存在受众基础。”

As collectors around the world know, Labubu dolls are fuzzy little Nordic elves with snaggletoothed, mischievous grins and impish ears. They’re female and kindhearted. Sometimes they get into trouble. The dolls belong to a tribe called the Monsters.

全球的收藏者都熟知，Labubu是一群毛茸茸的北欧小精灵，一口龅牙、挂着调皮的坏笑，还有一对精灵耳。它们是女性，心地善良，偶尔会惹点小麻烦，隶属于名为“精灵天团”的家族。

Labubus were conceived as characters in a children’s book series in 2015 by Kasing Lung, an artist who was born in Hong Kong. In 2019, Mr. Lung signed a partnership with Pop Mart to turn the storybook elves into collectible designer toys, starting with a line of figurines.

Labubu是香港出生的艺术家龙家升在2015年的一套儿童绘本系列中创造的角色。2019年，龙家升与泡泡玛特达成合作，将绘本里的小精灵打造成可收藏的设计师潮玩，首款产品是一系列手办。

The dolls quickly became a major hit, driving Pop Mart’s stocks to soar. Each time a new doll has been released, it has sold out online within minutes.

这款玩偶迅速爆红，带动泡泡玛特股价暴涨。每一次新款发售，线上都会在几分钟内售罄。

Communities have evolved around the toothy elves, which have been spotted dangling off luxury handbags and count Rihanna, Dua Lipa and Naomi Osaka as fans.

围绕这个露着牙齿的小精灵，已经形成了一系列粉丝社群，常常可以看到它被挂在奢品手袋上，蕾哈娜、杜阿·利帕、大坂直美等名人都是它的粉丝。

去年9月的美网公开赛，大坂直美的包上挂着一个Labubu玩偶。

A successful movie could add more legitimacy and popularity to the toys, Dr. McDonagh said. “The idea of a Labubu movie seems like a joke right now, but maybe it will be a creative triumph.”

麦克多纳表示，一部成功的电影，能让这款潮玩获得更高的认可度与人气。“目前Labubu电影这个想法听起来有点像个玩笑，但它或许会成为一次创意上的胜利。”

The endeavor is not entirely risk-free, experts said: If the movie is a flop, it could hurt sales and have the opposite effect. “Super Mario Bros.,” a 1993 movie about the popular video game, or the 2007 film “Bratz: The Movie” are examples. (A more recent film, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” earned more than $1.3 billion worldwide in 2023.)

专家也表示，这次尝试并非全无风险：如果电影搞砸了，可能会反噬产品销量，起到反效果。1993年改编自热门游戏的《超级马里奥兄弟》(Super Mario Bros.)真人电影、2007年的《布拉茨娃娃电影》(Bratz: The Movie)，都是例证——而2023年的新版《超级马里奥兄弟大电影》(The Super Mario Bros. Movie)，全球票房突破13亿美元。

The creation of a Labubu movie is clearly meant at least in part to be a commercial boost for the toy, intellectual property experts said.

知识产权领域专家称，打造Labubu电影，显然至少在一定程度上是为了给该玩具带来商业上的提振。

“It’s completely ruthless marketing, no question about that,” Dr. McDonagh said. But, he added: “If you get the creative work right, audiences are willing to look past that. They’re willing to go along with a good movie.”

“这是彻头彻尾的商业营销，这一点毋庸置疑，”麦克多纳说。但他补充说：“只要创作内容足够出色，观众愿意忽略这一点，他们愿意接受一部好电影。”

President Trump has created the conditions for another quagmire in the Middle East, and the question is whether American military excellence can rescue him from his own impulsiveness and incompetence.

特朗普总统已经为中东的又一个泥潭创造了条件，现在的悬念在于，美国卓越的军事实力能否将他从自身的冲动与无能中拯救出来。

Here is the present situation, in a nutshell: The United States and Israel have established absolute air dominance over the nation of Iran. In a few short days, our combined forces have destroyed Iran’s ability to protect its own airspace, have killed much of Iran’s senior military and civilian leadership, and have sunk much of Iran’s navy.

简单来说，目前的情况是这样的：美国和以色列已经在伊朗上空建立了绝对制空权。在短短几天内，联军摧毁了伊朗保卫本国领空的能力，消灭了伊朗相当一部分高级军政领导人，并重创了它的海军力量。

At the same time, the United States and Israel are damaging Iran’s nuclear program from the air, and they are destroying Iran’s ability to manufacture and deploy ballistic missiles. They are also attacking the internal security forces that maintain the Iranian regime’s hold on the population.

与此同时，美以正通过空袭破坏伊朗的核计划，摧毁其制造和部署弹道导弹的能力。他们还在攻击那些维持伊朗政权对民众控制的内部安全部队。

The intention of the air campaign is clear: to destroy the regime’s capacity to harm its neighbors while also creating the conditions for a revolution on the ground.

这场空中行动的意图十分明确：既要削弱伊朗政权伤害邻国的能力，也要为地面发生革命创造条件。

If that’s the extent of the military mission, the military is accomplishing it with remarkable efficiency. Iran is being badly battered. Even if the war ended today, it would take years for the Iranian military to fully recover from the losses it has suffered so far.

如果此次军事任务仅限于此，那么军方执行得相当高效。伊朗正遭受沉重打击。即便战争今天结束，伊朗军队也需要数年时间才能从目前的损失中完全恢复。

While Iran’s drones and missiles have inflicted damage on American forces and our allies, that damage is far less than what the U.S. and Israel have inflicted on Iran. There are no confirmed reports of Iran shooting down any American or Israeli aircraft (it has destroyed a number of drones), and it hasn’t yet sunk a single American or Israeli warship.

虽然伊朗的无人机和导弹也对美军及其盟友造成了一定损害，但远不及美以对伊朗造成的破坏。目前没有确认的报道显示伊朗击落过任何一架美国或以色列战机（它确实摧毁了一些无人机），也未击沉任何一艘美军或以色列军舰。

So why, then, is Trump lashing out at American allies? Why was he “shocked” that Iran struck Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in response to American attacks?

那么，特朗普为何还要严厉斥责美国的盟友？当伊朗袭击沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋和科威特以报复美军攻击时，他为何感到“震惊”？

Perhaps the answer lies in a Wall Street Journal report from last Friday. According to The Journal, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Trump that Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz and Trump shrugged off the threat and launched the attack anyway.

答案或许可以从《华尔街日报》上周五的一篇报道中找到。报道称，美军参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军曾警告特朗普，伊朗可能试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但特朗普对这一威胁嗤之以鼻，坚持发动进攻。

“He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait,” The Journal wrote, “and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.”

“他告诉团队，德黑兰很可能在封锁海峡之前就会投降，”《华尔街日报》写道，“即便伊朗真的尝试这么做，美军也能搞定。”

But Iran did not capitulate. There is no real sign the regime is in danger of falling. Instead, it has effectively closed the strait, and it’s reportedly done so without choking off its own oil exports. In other words, while other nations can’t ship oil through the strait, Iran still is.

但伊朗并未屈服。目前没有明显迹象表明该政权面临崩溃。相反，它实际上已经有效封锁了这条海峡，而且据称是在没有阻断自身石油出口的情况下做到的。换句话说，当其他国家无法通过海峡运送石油时，伊朗仍然可以。

Iran may not be able to seriously damage Israel with its missiles (though a few missiles have gotten through Israel’s defenses and killed Israeli civilians), and it may not be able to sink American ships, but it can still potentially plunge the world economy into a state of crisis. It could well emerge from the conflict with its regime intact (and perhaps even more hard-line) and its power over the world economy undiminished.

伊朗的导弹或许无法对以色列造成严重破坏（尽管确实有少数导弹突破了以色列的防御系统，造成以色列平民死亡），也无法击沉美国军舰，但它仍然有可能让世界经济陷入危机。冲突结束后，其政权可能依然完好无损（甚至可能更加强硬），对世界经济的控制力也未削弱。

In a recent post, the Institute for the Study of War described the problem well: “A weakened regime that remains in power after this war would be able to disrupt shipping whenever and for however long it pleases with little effort if its current, relatively limited, strike campaign on shipping proves sufficient to cause the U.S. and Israel to surrender.”

战争研究所最近在一篇贴文中很好地描述了这个问题：“如果它目前针对航运相对有限的打击行动就足以让美以屈服的话，那么一个在战后依然掌权的遭到削弱的政权，将能够随心所欲地干扰航运，且几乎不费吹灰之力。”

“A failure to demonstrate the will and ability to deny Iran the ability to disrupt traffic,” it wrote, “will make it enormously harder to deter Iran from future disruptions.”

“如果不能展示出阻止伊朗破坏航运的意愿和能力，”文章写道，“未来将更难威慑伊朗再次进行破坏。”

That’s the logic that leads to a quagmire. If America declares victory now, when the Iranian regime is still in power and the strait is closed, then Iran perversely can claim that it won. It took a huge punch, absorbed the blow, and still forced America to climb down. It employed its ultimate weapon — closing the strait — and America had no effective answer.

这正是走向泥潭的逻辑。如果美国现在宣布胜利，而伊朗政权依然存在、海峡仍被封锁，那么伊朗反而可以宣称自己获胜。它承受了重击，挺住了伤害，却仍迫使美国退让。它动用了终极武器——封锁海峡，而美国却没有有效应对之策。

Commit to opening the strait (and keeping it open) by force, and the U.S. may well find itself in yet another open-ended, costly conflict with at least some American soldiers on Iranian soil. This would be war on our enemy’s terms and terrain, with the potential of slowly but surely inflicting casualties and costs on the American military until we grow tired of the conflict and leave.

如果美国决心通过武力重新开放（并维持开放）该海峡，那么很可能会再次陷入一场旷日持久、代价高昂的冲突，甚至可能有美国士兵踏上伊朗领土。这将是一场在对手设定的条件和地盘上进行的战争，它有可能缓慢但确定无疑地给美军带来伤亡和消耗，直到我们厌倦冲突而离开。

The only way to cut this Gordian knot is with a military miracle — a fast campaign with minimal casualties that can quickly reopen the strait, minimize harm to the international economy and leave Iran almost entirely toothless, unable to inflict military or economic damage on its foes.

破解这个难题的唯一办法是创造一场军事奇迹——一场速战速决、伤亡最小的战役，迅速重新开放海峡，将全球经济受到的冲击降到最低，并让伊朗几乎彻底失去反击能力，无法再对对手造成军事或经济伤害。

Trump’s recklessness has left the United States with few good options. Indeed, the dilemma America now faces is a perfect illustration of why Trump should have taken his case for war to the Congress and the American people before he fired the first missile.

特朗普的鲁莽让美国几乎没有好的选择。事实上，美国目前面临的困境完美诠释了为什么特朗普在发射第一枚导弹之前，本该向国会和美国人民陈述他的开战理由。

I’ve had friends ask me, “Well, if he didn’t think Congress would approve, what do you expect him to do? Sit on his hands?” The answer is simple: The Constitution doesn’t give the president the power to disregard Congress. So, no, don’t go to war if you can’t get Congress to approve.

有朋友问我：“好吧，如果他觉得国会不会批准，你指望他怎么做？难道什么都不做吗？”答案很简单：宪法没有赋予总统无视国会的权力。所以，是的，如果不能获得国会批准，就不要发动战争。

And if a Republican president can’t get a Republican Congress to support his war, perhaps that provides even more reason to doubt the wisdom of the conflict.

如果一位共和党总统甚至无法说服共和党控制的国会支持他的战争，那么也许这更有理由让人怀疑这场冲突是否明智。

Had he made the case for war, he could have prepared the people for potential economic hardship. He would have been forced to precisely define our war aims and the means he’d choose to pursue those aims. Had he not alienated key allies through economic warfare and threats to seize Greenland, it could have been easier to assemble, in advance, an allied force to protect the Strait of Hormuz.

如果他当初就战争的必要性给出过阐述，他本可以让民众对潜在的经济困境做好心理准备。他将被迫精确地定义我们的战争目标，以及他选择用来实现这些目标的手段。如果他没有通过经济战和“夺取格陵兰岛”的威胁来疏远关键盟友，那么提前组建一支联合部队来保护霍尔木兹海峡本会容易得多。

Instead, Trump launched a major war on his own initiative while announcing competing and potentially contradictory war aims. Is the goal regime change? Unconditional surrender? Or is it much narrower — the destruction of Iran’s missile and drone forces, sinking its navy, stopping its nuclear program and destroying its ability to wage war through its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and the kaleidoscope of allied militias in Syria and Iraq.

相反，特朗普在自行发起一场大规模战争的同时，宣布了相互冲突甚至可能自相矛盾的战争目标。目标是政权更迭吗？是无条件投降吗？还是更具体的目标——摧毁伊朗的导弹和无人机部队，击沉其海军，停止其核计划，并摧毁其通过代理人部队（包括真主党、哈马斯、胡塞武装以及叙利亚和伊拉克境内错综复杂的盟友民兵组织）发动战争的能力？

The Iranian regime, by contrast, has a single, simple theory of victory: Survive. If the regime is still standing at the end of the conflict, then Iran lives to fight again. And if it survives at least in part through closing the Strait of Hormuz, then it knows exactly how to fight again.

相比之下，伊朗政权只有一个简单而明确的胜利理论：生存。如果战争结束时政权依然屹立不倒，那么伊朗就能重整旗鼓。如果它至少部分通过关闭霍尔木兹海峡而存活下来，那么它就确切地知道下一次该如何战斗。

Even when wars are carefully planned, with allies brought on board and a majority of the public in support, they are still highly volatile and unpredictable. The best analysts in the world can be confounded by the way events actually unfold. For example, we are now in the fifth year of a war in Ukraine that many people expected would end in few days.

即使是经过周密计划、拉拢盟友并获得多数民众支持的战争，依然极具波动性和不可预测性。世界上最顶尖的分析师也可能被事态的实际演变所迷惑。例如，我们现在正处于乌克兰战争的第五年，而许多人最初曾预计这场战争在几天内就会结束。

The best way to analyze events isn’t to ask, “Will this plan succeed?” but rather, “Have you created the conditions for success?” And, “Have you carefully considered what happens next?”

分析事件的最佳方式不是问“这个计划会成功吗？”，而是问：“你是否创造了成功的条件？”以及“你是否仔细考虑了接下来会发生什么？”

In the military context that can mean that your troops are well supplied, well trained, well led and acting according to a solid, achievable battle plan. You can still fail under those circumstances, but your chances of failure are far less.

在军事语境下，这意味着你的部队补给充足、训练有素、领导得力，并根据稳健且可实现的作战计划行动。在这种情况下你仍可能失败，但失败的机会要小得多。

My great concern is that Trump has created the conditions for failure. He has taken our well-supplied, well-trained and well-led troops and has deployed them on a mission that lacks clear public support (especially compared to previous American wars), lacks clearly defined objectives, and may not ultimately be achievable without a large-scale escalation.

我最大的担忧是，特朗普创造了失败的条件。他带着我们补给充足、训练有素、领导得力的部队，将他们投入到一项缺乏明确公众支持（尤其是与以往美国战争相比）、缺乏明确目标且如果不进行大规模升级可能最终无法实现的使命中。

And now, dismayed that the war has not resulted in the regime’s immediate capitulation or destruction, he’s flailing about, once again threatening the viability of NATO if our allies don’t come and bail him out from a war they did not start and did not ask for.

而现在，由于对战争没能导致伊朗政权的立即投降或毁灭感到沮丧，他开始手忙脚乱，再次威胁北约的生存，要求盟友们来解救他——而这场战争既不是盟友挑起的，也不是他们想要的。

As an American, I want our forces to succeed, once they are committed. I want to see the military open the Strait of Hormuz as quickly and painlessly as possible. I want to see the Iranian regime collapse and replaced by a democracy. That regime is loathsome. It’s an enemy of the United States. It deserves to fall. If it does, I will cheer its demise.

作为一名美国人，一旦部队投入战斗，我希望他们获胜。我希望看到军方尽可能迅速且无痛地打通霍尔木兹海峡。我希望看到伊朗政权垮台并被民主政体取代。那个政权是可憎的，是美国的敌人，它理应倒台。如果它倒了，我会为其灭亡而欢呼。

At the same time, however, my patriotism can’t blind me to reality. This is not how our democracy should go to war. Trump is not the right man to lead our nation into battle. People I respect applaud Trump for his courage in taking on Iran. But I don’t see courage. I see recklessness. I see thoughtlessness.

然而与此同时，我的爱国情怀不能让我无视现实。这不应该是我们民主国家走向战争的方式。特朗普不是领导国家走向战场的合适人选。一些人赞扬特朗普对抗伊朗的勇气，对此我表示尊重，但我看到的不是勇气，而是鲁莽，是轻率。

I see a man who plunged a nation into a conflict without fully comprehending the risks. I see a man full of hubris after achieving success in much more limited military engagements. And he’s now counting on two of the world’s most competent militaries to essentially bail him out.

我看到的是一个人在没有完全理解风险的情况下将国家推向冲突。我看到的是一个在取得极其有限的军事成功后满脑子傲慢的人。他现在正指望世界上最精锐的两支军队来替他收拾残局。

He’s counting on them accomplishing a mission without clear precedent in military history: destroying a hostile regime and forcing its compliance entirely from the air and sea, and to do so quickly enough that the economic pain doesn’t overshadow the military gains. Previous successful aerial campaigns, such as NATO’s campaigns in the Balkans and the allied campaign in Libya, were supplemented by local allied ground forces who could take and hold the land.

他指望他们在没有军事史先例的情况下完成一项任务：完全依靠空军和海军摧毁一个敌对政权并迫使其屈服，而且动作要快到让经济阵痛不至于掩盖军事胜利。此前成功的空中战役，如北约在巴尔干半岛的行动和盟军在利比亚的行动，都有当地盟友地面部队的补充，从而能占领并守住土地。

Or he can just declare “victory” and try to extricate the United States from the fight. He can point to the smoking ruins of the Iranian military and say that we’ve accomplished something substantial. We’ve “mowed the grass,” to use a term applied to Israeli counterterror operations before the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas.

或者，他可以干脆宣布“胜利”，并试图让美国从战斗中抽身。他可以指着伊朗军队的废墟说，我们已经取得了一些实质性的成就。我们已经“修剪了草坪”——这是以色列在哈马斯去年10月7日袭击之前，对其反恐行动所使用的术语。

In other words, you may not have defeated the enemy, but you’ve hurt the enemy, and it will take years for it to recover. In fact, there are signs that the administration is moving to exactly that position. Its messaging has begun to slide from regime change and “unconditional surrender” to objectives that look a lot like mowing the grass — damaging the Iranian military enough that it will take considerable time to rebuild.

换句话说，你可能没有击败敌人，但你重创了敌人，它需要数年时间才能恢复。事实上，有迹象表明政府正在转向这一立场。它的调门已经从政权更迭和“无条件投降”滑向了看起来极像“修草坪”的目标——即重创伊朗军力，使其在相当长的时间内无法重建。

But Oct. 7 should have demonstrated to all of us that mowing the grass doesn’t make anyone safer. Instead it prolongs the conflict. It hardens the combatants. It plants the seeds for vengeance. Israel should know this now, and we should know it as well.

但10月7日的事件应该向我们所有人证明，“修草坪”并不能改善任何人的安全。相反，它延长了冲突，使战斗人员变得更强硬，并播下了复仇的种子。以色列现在应该明白这一点，我们也应该明白。

When Saddam Hussein faced a catastrophic defeat during Operation Desert Storm, he doubled down. He tried to kill George H.W. Bush, he supported the second intifada against Israel, his troops fired on American pilots. He harbored terrorists. Defeat did not make him any less of an enemy to the United States, and in 2003 we fought him again, in a much longer and bloodier war.

当萨达姆·侯赛因在“沙漠风暴”行动中面临惨败时，他变本加厉。他试图刺杀老布什，支持针对以色列的第二次大起义，他的部队向美国飞行员开火，他窝藏恐怖分子。失败并没有让他减少对美国的敌意。到了2003年，我们再次与他开战，那是一场漫长得多、也血腥得多的战争。

Trump has only himself to blame. He led America into an unconstitutional war. And now he’s compounding that sin by proving to be every bit as reckless a commander as he is a president.

特朗普只能怪他自己。他领导美国进入了一场违宪的战争。而现在，他正在变本加厉，证明自己不仅是一个鲁莽的总统，更是一个彻头彻尾的鲁莽统帅。

For decades, American presidents have avoided speaking harshly about Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, eager to focus instead on deepening ties with Tokyo, which has been a steadfast ally since World War II.

数十年来，美国历任总统都避免对日本1941年袭击珍珠港一事发表严厉言论，而是热衷深化与东京的关系——二战后，日本始终是美国坚定的盟友。

Not so with President Trump.

特朗普总统却并非如此。

At an otherwise congenial meeting with Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in the Oval Office on Thursday, Mr. Trump invoked the Japanese attack on Dec. 7, 1941, which led the United States into World War II. He was responding to a question about why Japan and other allies had received no advance notice of the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran.

周四，特朗普在椭圆形办公室与日本首相高市早苗会面，原本气氛融洽，期间特朗普提起了1941年12月7日日本发动的袭击，正是这场袭击导致美国卷入第二次世界大战。当时他正在回应一个提问，涉及为何美以对伊朗发动袭击之前，没有向日本等盟友提前通报。

“We didn’t tell anybody about it because we wanted surprise,” he said. “Who knows better about surprise than Japan, OK? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK? Right?”

“我们没告诉任何人，就是要出其不意，”他说。“谁比日本更懂出其不意呢，对吧？珍珠港事件，你们怎么没提前告诉我？对吧？”

There was some laughter from the officials and journalists gathered in the room. “You believe in surprise, I think, much more so than us,” he added.

在场的官员与记者中传来几声笑。他接着说：“我看，你们比我们更相信出其不意。”

As Mr. Trump spoke, Ms. Takaichi widened her eyes and appeared to take a deep breath. She kept her arms crossed in her lap and did not speak.

特朗普说话时，高市早苗瞪大了双眼，似乎深吸了一口气。她双臂交叉放在腿上，全程一言不发。

The remark was the latest example of Mr. Trump’s penchant for tossing aside diplomatic norms.

这番言论再次体现了特朗普一贯无视外交惯例的行事风格。

After the end of World War II, President Harry S. Truman used the attack on Pearl Harbor to justify American efforts to remake Japanese society and to impose a pacifist Constitution. (The United States led the Allies’ occupation of Japan from 1945 until 1952.) The Constitution forced Japan to renounce war and put limits on its military, making Tokyo reliant on the United States for protection.

二战结束后，杜鲁门总统以珍珠港遇袭为由，推动美国重塑日本社会，并向日本施加了一部和平宪法。（1945年至1952年，美国领导了盟军对日本的军事占领。）这部宪法迫使日本放弃战争，限制其军事力量发展，让东京在防务上不得不依赖美国。

But during the Cold War, the United States shifted its official portrayal of the attack, describing it as a historical tragedy rather than pointing fingers at Japan. American officials were eager to keep Tokyo as an ally as communism spread in Asia, and to form security and economic pacts.

但冷战期间，美国调整了对此次袭击的官方表述，将其描述为一场历史悲剧，而非指责日本。随着共产主义在亚洲蔓延，美国官员迫切希望将日本留在盟友阵营，与日本缔结安全与经济协定。

In 2016, 75 years after Imperial Japanese warplanes destroyed the Pacific fleet in Pearl Harbor, President Barack Obama visited the site of the attack with Shinzo Abe, then Japan’s prime minister, who offered condolences “to the souls of those who lost their lives here.” Mr. Obama and Mr. Abe laid wreaths made of white peace lilies at the memorial.

2016年，也就是日本帝国战机在珍珠港摧毁美国太平洋舰队75周年之际，时任美国总统奥巴马与时任日本首相安倍晋三一同造访了袭击遗址。安倍晋三向“在此遇难的英灵” 致以哀悼，二人还在纪念碑前献上了白色和平百合花环。

Mr. Obama described in detail what occurred on the day of the attack, highlighted acts of heroism by American service members and said that the visit of Mr. Abe “reminds us of what is possible between nations and between peoples.”

奥巴马详细讲述了遇袭当天的事件经过，重点讲述了美军士兵的英勇事迹，并表示安倍晋三的此次到访“让我们看到国家与人民之间，能够达成怎样的可能”。

Mr. Trump’s predecessors have avoided speaking at length about Pearl Harbor in the presence of Japanese leaders because “there’s been a really profound process of reconciliation between the United States and Japan,” said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会亚洲政策研究中心主任米雷娅·索利斯表示，特朗普的历任前任都会避免在日本领导人面前大谈珍珠港事件，因为“美日两国之间已经走过了一段极其深刻的和解历程”。

Mr. Trump’s remarks were “unusual — a shock,” she said. “The purpose of this visit is to emphasize the shared vision — the strong bonds that unite Japan and the United States,” she said. “Not the divisive past and the bitter rivalry and conflict of the war.”

特朗普的此番言论“不同寻常——令人震惊，”她说。“此次访问的核心目的是强调两国的共同愿景——联结美日两国的牢固纽带，”她说。“而不是那些制造分裂的过往，以及战争年代的尖锐对立与冲突。”

President Trump has taken on many ancillary roles in Washington: chairman of the Kennedy Center. The de facto chief architect of the city’s landmark properties. And now, the nation’s chief intelligence analyst.

特朗普总统在华盛顿承担了许多附带角色：肯尼迪中心的主席、这座城市的地标建筑的实际首席建筑师，而现在，他又成了美国的首席情报分析师。

This revelation came from Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence. She had the unenviable task at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Wednesday of squaring Mr. Trump’s comments about an urgent nuclear threat from Iran with a letter from one of her trusted aides that the country posed no “imminent threat.”

这一说法出自国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德。她在周三的参议院情报委员会听证会上面临棘手任务：一方面特朗普称伊朗构成“迫在眉睫核威胁”，另一方面，她信赖的一位助手又在信中称美国并不面临“迫在眉睫的威胁”，她需要给出一个合理的解释。

Her answer? Only the president can decide what is an “imminent” threat. In other words, she was turning one of the key roles of the intelligence community’s 80,000 employees — to make nonpolitical judgments about threats to American security — over to Mr. Trump.

她的回答是？只有总统才有权决定什么是“迫在眉睫”的威胁。换句话说，她把情报界8万名雇员的核心职责之一——对美国安全威胁作出非政治化的判断——交给了特朗普。

Ms. Gabbard’s comments were necessitated by the decision of Joe Kent, her close adviser, to quit his counterterrorism position over his opposition to the war in Iran and his belief that Israel had pressured the United States into the conflict.

加巴德的这番表态是由她的亲信乔·肯特决定辞去反恐部门职位所引发的。肯特反对伊朗战争，并认为美国是在以色列施压下卷入冲突的。

Democrats, long critical of Mr. Kent and his penchant for conspiracy theories, jumped on his comments about the war — creating at least a short-term communications crisis for the Trump administration. “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” Mr. Kent wrote in a letter to Mr. Trump. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation.”

长期批评肯特及其阴谋论倾向的民主党人迅速抓住他对战争的评论，至少在短期内给特朗普政府制造了传播危机。“我无法昧着良心支持目前这场对伊朗的战争，”肯特在给特朗普的信中写道。“伊朗对我国并不构成迫在眉睫的威胁。”

Ms. Gabbard does not quickly turn on her allies, and she showed little desire to throw Mr. Kent under the bus or attack him. But she has remained in her position by being a careful student of Mr. Trump, and knows how to stay on his good side. And critiquing the president’s view of the threat from Iran was clearly not the way to keep your job.

加巴德不会轻易背弃盟友，她也基本没有表现出要抛弃肯特或攻击他的意愿。但她能保住职位，靠的是对特朗普的仔细观察和揣摩，知道如何不招惹他。而批评总统对伊朗威胁的看法显然不利于保住自己的工作。

So she came up with her line that it is Mr. Trump, not the intelligence community, that determines what constitutes a threat.

于是她抛出了这个说法：决定何为威胁的是特朗普总统，而不是情报界。

It was Senator Jon Ossoff, Democrat of Georgia, who pressed Ms. Gabbard the hardest on whether there was “imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime.”

佐治亚州民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫是对加巴德施压最猛烈的人，他追问伊朗政权是否构成“迫在眉睫的核威胁”。

“Yes or no?” he demanded.

“是或否？”他逼问道。

Ms. Gabbard was ready with an answer. “It is not a responsibility of the intelligence community to determine what is or is not an imminent threat,” she said.

加巴德早已准备好答案。“判断是否存在迫在眉睫威胁，并非情报界的职责，”她说。

The senator, speaking over Ms. Gabbard, rejected the answer: “It is precisely your responsibility to determine what constitutes a threat to the United States.”

参议员打断她的话，反驳道：“这恰恰是你的职责——判断什么构成对美国的威胁。”

In fact, while the president has broad authority to interpret intelligence any way he deems proper, Mr. Ossoff was right: At the National Intelligence University, which trains the intelligence agencies’ future leaders, there is a large body of literature about the art and science of providing warning (although Ms. Gabbard has ordered the university merged with another government school).

事实上，虽然总统拥有广泛的权力，可以按自己认为合适的方式解读情报，但奥索夫是对的：在培训情报机构未来领导者的国家情报大学，有大量关于预警艺术与科学的文献（尽管加巴德已下令将该大学并入另一所政府学校）。

John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director who has no love lost for Mr. Kent, chose a different tactic in answering questions about the threat posed by Iran.

对肯特并无好感的中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫在回答有关伊朗威胁的问题时选择了不同的策略。

“I think Iran has been a constant threat to the United States for an extended period of time and posed an immediate threat at this time,” Mr. Ratcliffe said.

“我认为伊朗长期以来一直是美国的持续威胁，现在也构成了直接威胁，”拉特克利夫说。

Mr. Ratcliffe, far more adept than his predecessors at facing congressional questioning and still staying on Mr. Trump’s good side, also said that Iran was a destabilizing force in the Middle East, “one that has frankly been watered, fed and nurtured by policies of prior administrations” that “allowed them to become the threat that they are.”

拉特克利夫比前任们更擅长面对国会质询，同时还能保住特朗普对他的好感。他还表示，伊朗是中东的破坏性力量，“坦白说，前几届政府的政策浇水、施肥、培育了他们，才让他们成为如今的威胁”。

Intelligence officials took pains at a hearing on Wednesday to avoid answering direct questions about what intelligence they provided to the president before the decision to strike as well as direct assessments of how the war was going.

在周三的听证会上，情报官员们极力避免直接回答在打击决定前向总统提供了什么情报，以及对战争进展的直接评估。

But Ms. Gabbard offered the smallest bit of insight in her opening statement when she said that the Iranian leadership had been “largely degraded” by U.S. and Israeli attacks but that the government “appears to be intact.”

但加巴德在开场陈述中还是透露了一点信息：她表示伊朗领导层已被美国和以色列的攻击“大幅削弱”，但政府“似乎未受影响”。

Still, there were some noticeable differences between what Ms. Gabbard read aloud and what she submitted to lawmakers.

不过，她宣读的内容与提交给议员的书面版本之间存在一些明显差异。

In her statement, Ms. Gabbard said Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was “obliterated” in strikes last year, echoing Mr. Trump. There have been “no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability,” her written statement said.

在声明中，加巴德说伊朗的核浓缩项目已在去年的打击中“被摧毁”，与特朗普的说法一致。书面陈述称，“此后没有出现任何试图重建浓缩能力的努力。”

In her oral testimony, Ms. Gabbard said something quite different. Intelligence agencies assessed that before the current war, she said, “Iran was trying to recover from the severe damage to its nuclear infrastructure.”

但在口头证词中，加巴德说了截然不同的话。她表示，情报机构评估认为，在当前战争之前，“伊朗一直在试图从核基础设施的严重破坏中恢复。”

Called out on the discrepancy by Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the committee, Ms. Gabbard said she had truncated her comments because they were running long. Mr. Warner snapped back that she “chose to omit the parts that contradict the president.”

弗吉尼亚州民主党人、委员会资深民主党人马克·沃纳参议员指出这一矛盾后，加巴德解释说，她因为时间过长而缩短了发言。沃纳反击道，她“故意省略了那些与总统说法相矛盾的部分”。

House lawmakers will have their own opportunity to ask questions Thursday, when the intelligence chiefs appear before them.

众议院议员将于周四获得自己的提问机会，届时各情报部门负责人会前来接受他们的质询。

Israeli settlers beat a Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank, stripped him naked, tied his arms and legs and then zip-tied his penis, he, his family members and another witness said on Wednesday.

周三，一名巴勒斯坦男子及其家属，以及另一名目击者称，在被占领的约旦河西岸，以色列定居者对该男子实施了殴打，将他全身剥光，捆绑手脚，还用扎带勒住他的生殖器。

“I thought I was going to die,” the man, Suhaib Abualkebash, a 29-year-old shepherd, told The New York Times. “I thought this was the end.”

“我当时以为自己死定了，”这名29岁的牧羊人苏海布·阿布阿尔卡巴什对《纽约时报》说。“我以为这就是我的末日。”

Several family members and an American woman corroborated details of Mr. Abualkebash’s account, saying they witnessed the sexual assault on Friday by several men among a group of more than 20 settlers who marauded though a Bedouin encampment. The relatives and the American said they had been beaten, too, adding that the assailants had kicked and slapped children during the attack. Family members also shared copies of reports they had filed to the Israeli police.

多名家属与一名美国女性证实了阿布阿尔卡巴什所述事件的细节。他们称周五有20多名定居者洗劫了一处贝都因人营地，其中数人对阿布阿尔卡巴什实施了性侵，他们目睹了这一过程。这些家属与这名美国女性表示，他们也遭到了殴打，袭击者在施暴过程中还对儿童拳打脚踢。家属们还提供了他们向以色列警方提交报案记录的副本。

Israeli settlers have been waging an escalating campaign of violence and land theft against Palestinians across much of the West Bank. It has intensified as Israeli attitudes toward Palestinians have hardened since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and the war that ensued.

以色列定居者针对约旦河西岸大部分地区巴勒斯坦人发起暴力与土地掠夺行动，长期以来愈演愈烈。2023年10月7日哈马斯对以色列南部发动袭击、随后战争爆发以来，以色列社会对巴勒斯坦人的态度日趋强硬，这类暴力行动也随之升级。

The attacks have increased while international attention has been focused on the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Settlers have killed seven West Bank Palestinians so far this year, six of them since the war began on Feb. 28.

在国际社会的注意力集中于美以对伊朗的战争期间，此类袭击事件愈发频繁。今年以来，定居者已在约旦河西岸杀害七名巴勒斯坦人，其中六人遇害是在2月28日战争爆发之后。

左侧是阿布阿尔卡巴，姻亲尼哈亚坐在他身旁；妻子尼亚马站立着，怀中抱着女儿马纳尔；还有他们的另一个女儿、几位侄女和一位姑妈。除了一位在袭击发生时不在场的姑妈外，其余人都表示自己遭到了袭击。

The Israeli police, who are responsible for looking into crimes committed by Israelis in the West Bank, opened an investigation into the attack in Khirbet Humsa but did not respond immediately to requests for comment. They say they act against any violence, but have largely failed to bring violent settlers to justice.

负责调查以色列人在约旦河西岸罪行的以色列警方已对这起发生在希贝特·哈姆萨的袭击事件立案调查，但未立即回应媒体的置评请求。以色列警方称会对所有暴力行为采取行动，但迄今为止，基本未能将施暴的定居者绳之以法。

A police record showed that the episode was being investigated as a sexual assault, an attack on a helpless person and a crime motivated by racism, among other potential charges.

警方记录显示，这起事件正以性侵、袭击无反抗能力人员、种族主义动机犯罪等多项潜在罪名展开调查。

Mr. Abualkebash said the assault capped a night of terror for him, his wife, their three daughters, his brother Muhammad, Muhammad’s wife, their seven children, his father and his uncle. All were beaten, the adults said, except a sleeping 4-month-old baby.

阿布阿尔卡巴什说，这场袭击让他、妻子、三个女儿，兄弟穆罕默德、兄弟的妻子和七个孩子，还有他的父亲与叔叔经历了整晚的恐怖。所有成年人均表示，除了一名熟睡的四个月大婴儿，所有人都遭到了殴打。

The settlers also stole the family’s 400 sheep — its entire livelihood — along with wedding rings and other jewelry, cellphones, cash and identification papers, the family members said.

家庭成员称，定居者还偷走了他们家里的400只羊——这是他们全部的生计来源，还有婚戒等各类首饰、手机、现金与身份证件。

Ava Lang, a 24-year-old American human rights activist who witnessed the attack, said she had been beaten and robbed of a ring, her cellphone and her passport.

24岁的美国人权活动人士艾娃·朗是这起事件的目击者，她表示自己也遭到了殴打，戒指、手机和护照都被抢走。

Mr. Abualkebash, his brother and their father and uncle were hospitalized for their injuries, as was Ms. Lang.

阿布阿尔卡巴什、他的兄弟、父亲与叔叔，还有朗，均因伤入院治疗。

据家人称，阿布阿尔卡巴什的兄弟穆罕默德也遭到殴打，他的妻子、七个孩子、父亲和叔叔同样遭受了殴打。

The attack took place in a patch of fertile land known as Khirbet Humsa, in the northern Jordan Valley. Once the home of hundreds of Bedouin, it has been reduced to a few small encampments in hollows between low-rising hills opposite the Israeli settlements of Beka’ot and Roi.

袭击发生在约旦河谷北部一片名为希贝特·哈姆萨的肥沃土地上。这里曾是数百名贝都因人的家园，如今只剩下低矮山丘间洼地里的几处小型营地，对面就是以色列的贝卡奥特与罗伊定居点。

The attack on Friday began sometime after 1 a.m. and lasted about an hour. Mr. Abualkebash said he was taking a turn on guard duty in a small tent near where a rocky dirt road enters the compound. His father and Ms. Lang, the activist, were sleeping beside him, he said.

周五的袭击发生在凌晨1点多，持续了约一个小时。阿布阿尔卡巴什说，当时他正在一处小帐篷里轮岗值守，帐篷位于一条崎岖的土路通往营地的入口附近，他的父亲和活动人士朗当时睡在他身边。

“I heard voices, so I got up and saw more than 20 of them outside the tent,” he said of the settlers.

“我听到了说话声，起身就看到帐篷外有20多个人，”他这样描述那些定居者。

In an interview, Ms. Lang — who independently corroborated Mr. Abualkebash’s account — said she had been volunteering in solidarity with Palestinians for about a month and a half. The attack came on her first night in Khirbet Humsa.

朗已独立证实了阿布阿尔卡巴什的说法，在采访中，她表示，自己来这里开展声援巴勒斯坦人的志愿活动已有一个半月，这是她在希贝特·哈姆萨度过的第一个晚上。

Israeli and foreign activists often stay with Palestinians seen as at risk of settler attacks on the theory that their presence can offer a measure of deterrence.

以色列与外国活动人士常会住在面临定居者袭击风险的巴勒斯坦人家中，他们认为自己的在场能起到一定的威慑作用。

Ms. Lang said that she was awakened by the screams of a Portuguese activist who had been sleeping in another tent, but that the attackers began beating them before any of them could react.

朗说，她被睡在另一顶帐篷里的一名葡萄牙活动人士的尖叫声惊醒，但袭击者没等他们任何人做出反应，就开始殴打他们。

“They were asking our names, where we’re from, saying, ‘We’re going to kill you,’ and ‘This is our land; we’re Jewish,’” she said.

“他们问我们叫什么、从哪里来，还说‘我们要杀了你们’，‘这是我们的土地，我们是犹太人’，”她说。

Masked and wielding clubs, Mr. Abualkebash said, the settlers beat and kicked him, his father and the two female activists. Once they had used zip ties to bind the others by their wrists and feet, he said, they also did the same to him.

阿布阿尔卡巴什称，这些定居者蒙着面、手持棍棒，对他、他的父亲和两名女性活动人士拳打脚踢。他们先用扎带绑住了其他人的手脚，随后也把他捆了起来。

One assailant used a hunting knife to cut Mr. Abualkebash’s pants and then his underwear, he said.

他说，其中一名袭击者用猎刀割破了他的裤子，接着又割开了他的内裤。

As the beating went on, he said, one attacker cinched a zip tie tightly around his penis. He showed a reporter the mark that remained from the injury.

他说，殴打持续的过程中，一名袭击者用扎带紧紧勒住了他的阴茎。他向记者展示了伤口留下的疤痕。

He said the assault had rendered him speechless, unable to believe what was happening to him. Israeli police officers, he added, appeared shocked when he described it.

他说，这场暴行让他震惊得说不出话来，无法相信发生在自己身上的一切。他还说，当他向以色列警方描述事发经过时，连警察都面露震惊。

The attackers then dragged Mr. Abualkebash to a large communal tent nearby where he found his wife, children and his brother’s family. The adults were all bound and cowering as they were intermittently beaten.

随后，袭击者把阿布阿尔卡巴什拖到附近一处大型公共帐篷里，他在那里看到了自己的妻子、孩子以及他的兄弟一家。所有成年人都被绑着，蜷缩在地上，时不时就会遭到殴打。

It turned out that the settlers had first destroyed two security cameras that the family had installed, hoping at least to have evidence in case of an attack, Muhammad Abualkebash, 40, said.

40岁的穆罕默德·阿布阿尔卡巴什说，定居者最先毁掉了家里安装的两个监控摄像头——这家人安装监控，本就是为了万一遭遇袭击能留下证据。

The settlers had then burst into the family members’ tents while they slept, dragging the women by their hair. They beat the women and slapped or kicked the children, the adults said.

随后，定居者趁这家人熟睡时冲进帐篷，揪着女人的头发拖拽。多名成年人表示，这些定居者们殴打女性，对孩子们拳打脚踢。

Mr. Abualkebash’s wife, Niama Abualkebash, 28, said that when she grabbed a head covering, a settler tore it from her hands, shouted, “No,” and threw it to the ground.

阿布阿尔卡巴什28岁的妻子尼亚玛·阿布阿尔卡巴什说，她伸手去拿头巾时，一名定居者一把从她手里抢走头巾，大喊着“不”，把它扔在地上。

“He hit me, kicked me in the mouth and said, ‘Die, die,’” she said.

“他打我，一脚踢在我嘴上，喊着‘去死，去死’，”她说。

目击者称，这些被丢弃的扎带曾被用于遇袭的受害者。

Her 3-year-old daughter, Lamar, was pulled from the tent by her pajamas and thrown to the ground, she said. Her infant daughter. Manar, who was hidden behind blankets, was not harmed.

她说，自己三岁的女儿拉马尔被人揪着睡衣拖出帐篷，摔在地上。藏在毯子后面的小婴儿玛纳尔没有受伤。

The settlers left only after threatening the Abualkebash family in Arabic, the adults said.

多名成年人称，定居者用阿拉伯语对阿布阿尔卡巴什一家发出威胁后，才最终离开。

“They said: ‘If you don’t leave, we will burn you. We’ll hit you. We’ll take your children, and we will rape your women,’” according to Muhammad Abualkebash. “‘Go to America, go to Jordan or anywhere else, but go.’”

“他们说：‘你们要是不滚，我们就烧死你们。我们会打你们，抓走你们的孩子，强奸你们的女人，’”穆罕默德·阿布阿尔卡巴什回忆。“‘去美国，去约旦，去别的地方，滚出这里。’”

The settlers eventually cut the zip ties — but not the one on Mr. Abualkebash’s genitalia. He said he needed his brother’s help to remove that.

定居者离开前剪断了大部分扎带，唯独没有解开勒在阿布阿尔卡巴什生殖器上的那根。他说，最后是靠兄弟帮忙才把它取了下来。

As they left, the Abualkebash family said, some of the settlers mockingly sang a few bars of an old Palestinian folk song: “Come and support one another, people of Palestine — Palestine is gone and it didn’t bid you farewell.”

阿布阿尔卡巴什一家称，离开时，部分定居者还嘲讽地哼了几句巴勒斯坦经典民谣：“巴勒斯坦人民啊，快来互相扶持吧——巴勒斯坦已不复存在，却未曾向你们道别。”

Becoming a successful comedian in the United States typically means grinding through open-mic nights, taking expensive improv classes and creating content for TikTok to build an online following.

在美国，要成为一名成功的喜剧演员通常意味着要经过多次开放麦的打磨，上昂贵的即兴表演课，并在TikTok上创作内容以积累粉丝。

Jesse Appell skipped all that. When he arrived in China in 2012, he was a recent Brandeis graduate who didn’t speak the language. By the time he moved back to the United States a decade later, he had become a fixture of China’s burgeoning stand-up comedy scene. He now has more than a million followers on Douyin, China’s domestic version of TikTok, by bridging the gap between American-style standup and more traditional forms of Chinese performance.

艾杰西(Jesse Appell)跳过了这些步骤。2012年他来到中国时，还是个刚从布兰戴斯大学毕业、完全不会中文的小伙子。等到十年后他搬回美国时，已是中国蓬勃发展的脱口秀界的名人。通过在美式脱口秀与中国传统表演形式之间架起桥梁，现在他在抖音上已是粉丝过百万的大V。

He turned his fascination with Chinese culture into a decade-long comedy career there, a story he tells in a new memoir, “This Was Funnier in China: An American Comedian’s Cross-Cultural Journey.”

他将自己对中国文化的痴迷变成了一段长达十年的喜剧表演生涯，并在新近出版的回忆录《这一切在中国更好笑：一位美国喜剧演员的跨文化之旅》(This Was Funnier in China: An American Comedian’s Cross-Cultural Journey)中讲述了这段经历。

China was hardly a comedy vacuum; the country had long been obsessed with the slapstick hits of stars like Stephen Chow and with the rapid-fire banter of xiangsheng, a form of comedy that loosely translates to “cross talk.” But the gritty, observational world of Western-style stand-up was only just surfacing in urban clubs.

中国并非没有喜剧传统；这个国家长期以来一直痴迷于周星驰等明星的无厘头喜剧，以及相声这种节奏飞快的对口表演形式。但那种更贴近现实、以日常观察为核心的西式单口喜剧，当时才刚刚开始在中国城市的俱乐部中兴起。

Asked why he went, Appell, 35, said in an interview that he was intrigued by “the challenge.” While Chinese social media and art have long been hotbeds of coded satire and wordplay, the raw, direct nature of the stand-up mic offered something different.

当被问及为何去中国时，现年35岁的艾杰西在采访中表示，他当时是被“挑战”所吸引。尽管中国的社交媒体和艺术长期以来一直是隐晦的讽刺和文字游戏的温床，但单口喜剧那种原始、直接的表达方式提供了截然不同的体验。

“You go to a comedy show in China and people need it,” he said. “This is not a place where you have a hundred methods of self-expression.”

“在中国看喜剧演出，人们是带着需求去的，”他说。“那里并不是一个拥有上百种自我表达方式的地方。”

Appell, a native of Newton, Mass., was drawn to comedy as a teenager, taking part in improv groups in high school. He first went to Beijing to study abroad when he was a junior at Brandeis, majoring in East Asian studies. To prepare, he followed an intensive Mandarin program, learning and memorizing 100 new characters every day. He also had to sign a language pledge saying he wouldn’t speak any English for six months, except to his parents.

艾杰西出生于马萨诸塞州纽顿市，青少年时期就对喜剧产生了兴趣，高中时参加过即兴表演社团。大三时，作为布兰戴斯大学东亚研究专业的学生，他第一次去北京留学。为了准备，他参加了一个高强度的中文项目，每天学习、记忆100个新汉字。他还签署了一份语言承诺书，规定除了跟父母通话，六个月内不得说英语。

While there, he met other international students and even took part in some bilingual improv groups. The seed was planted: He wanted to live and work in China.

在中国期间，他结识了其他国际学生，甚至参与了一些双语即兴表演小组。那时，一颗种子已经埋下：他想在中国生活和工作。

After graduating, Appell earned a Fulbright scholarship to research Chinese comedy.

大学毕业后，艾杰西获得了富布赖特奖学金，专门研究中国喜剧。

“When I got there, I realized I can do the things I like in the second country,” he said. “I don’t need to change the whole of who I am or what I like just because I was put into a new area. I love improv. I love comedy. I loved comedic writing. ‘Hey, they laugh over there too.’”

“到了那里，我意识到可以在另一个国家做我喜欢的事情，”他说。“我不需要因为换了一个地方就改变整个自我或者我的喜好。我热爱即兴表演，热爱喜剧，热爱幽默写作。‘嘿，那儿的人也会笑。’”

He found support through Ding Guangquan, a famed performer of xiangsheng. The style, popular since the 1850s, is believed to have originated during the Qing dynasty of the 1600s. It features two people performing a combination of scripted and improvised sketches onstage. Western stand-up comedy was not mainstream in China when Appell arrived there. His research would consist of apprenticing with Master Ding.

他得到了著名相声表演艺术家丁广泉的提携扶持。相声这种形式自19世纪50年代开始流行，据信起源于17世纪的清朝。它通常由两人表演，结合了预设的剧本和现场即兴。艾杰西初到中国时，西式脱口秀在中国还不属于主流。他的研究就是向丁先生拜师学艺。

This was an extraordinary challenge for someone whose Mandarin wasn’t quite fluent. Xiangsheng audiences have very “refined taste,” Appell said.

对于一个中文尚不流利的人来说，这是极大的挑战。艾杰西说，相声观众的“口味非常挑剔”。

“The funny thing about xiangsheng is at first it seems really easy because you just have to memorize your lines and go up onstage and do it,” said Nick Angiers, a friend of Appell’s and a fellow disciple of Master Ding. “And it’s only when you get to the intermediate part, when language isn’t really a problem anymore, that you realize just how layered it is.”

“相声有趣的地方在于，起初它看起来很容易，因为你只需要背台词然后上台表演，”艾杰西的朋友、同为丁广泉弟子的安仁良(Nick Angiers)说。“只有当你达到中级水平、语言不再是问题时，你才会意识到它的层次有多丰富。”

Xiangsheng gave Appell a base line for developing his Chinese comedic voice, just as stand-up was becoming more popular in the country. Appell said he performed live shows around 300 times a year and gradually built credibility in the Chinese comedy scene because there was a demand and few comedians to meet it.

相声为艾杰西开发自己的中式喜剧风格奠定了基础，而此时脱口秀在中国流行起来。艾杰西说，他每年进行约300场现场演出，逐渐在中国喜剧界建立了声誉，因为市场有需求，而能胜任的喜剧演员相对稀少。

“In China, once I had 20 to 30 minutes of Chinese stand-up, I was working on cruise ships. I was working on television shows. I was everywhere because — forget me being a white person — there just wasn’t anyone who had 45 minutes of stand-up,” he said.

“在中国，一旦我有了20到30分钟的中文段子，我就去邮轮上演出，去上电视节目。我无处不在——先撇开我是个白人不说，当时确实没人能讲出45分钟的脱口秀，”他说。

An early joke of Appell’s that become widely shared on social media involved Appell talking about his Boston roots: In Mandarin, he delivered a sendup of the Boston accent — “I pahk my cah in Hahvahd Yahd!” He did so, he said, to more clearly define himself to a Chinese audience.

艾杰西早期的一个段子在社交媒体上流传甚广，涉及他的波士顿背景：他用普通话惟妙惟肖地模仿了波士顿口音——“I pahk my cah in Hahvahd Yahd!”（I park my car in Harvard Yard，意为“我把车停在了哈佛园”，是一个常用来体现波士顿口音特点的固定句式。——译注）。他说，这样做是为了让中国观众对他有更清晰的认知。

“I kind of needed to shift their mentality away from ‘I’m a foreigner’ to ‘I’m an American from Boston,’” Appell said. “‘Hey, just like you guys have all your local things and you have your own local accents, we have that, too.’”

“我需要把他们的心态从‘我是个外国人’转变为‘我是个来自波士顿的美国人’，”艾杰西说，“‘嘿，就像你们有各种地方特色和方言口音一样，我们也有。’”

With the spread of social media, and as students and others returned to China from abroad, the Chinese comedy landscape was changing just as Appell was beginning his journey. At first, audiences were confused by Western-style stand-up..

随着社交媒体的普及以及海外群体的回流，中国的喜剧版图正在发生变化。起初，观众对西式脱口秀感到困惑。

“People had a good time but they didn’t really figure out the point of doing this,” said Tony Chou, a Beijing-based comic who has performed with Appell.

“大家玩得开心，但并没搞懂做这件事的意义何在，”曾与艾杰西同台演出的北京喜剧演员周托尼(Tony Chou)说。

Appell said he was part of the first ticketed stand-up show at a theater in Zhengzhou, a city of about 12 million in central China. In exploring the Chinese audience’s comedic sensibilities, he found topical common ground with American audiences. Dan Chen, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Richmond who has studied Chinese comedy, said that generational tension and workplace pressure were popular topics in Chinese stand-up. She also said that there had been a “generational shift” in the last decade in the type of comedy popular with younger Chinese consumers.

艾杰西说，他参加了郑州——中国中部一座拥有1200万人口的城市——历史上第一场售票的剧院脱口秀。在摸索中国观众的幽默感时，他发现了一些与美国观众产生共鸣的话题。里士满大学政治学助理教授陈丹研究过中国喜剧，她表示代际矛盾和职场压力是中国脱口秀的热门话题。她还提到，过去十年中，受年轻人欢迎的喜剧类型发生了“代际转变”。

“There is this need for really authentic, direct personal expression in public discourse. And a lot of stand-up comedians in China, they talk about issues that bother them,” Chen said.

“公共舆论中存在着对真实、直接的个人表达的需求。中国的很多脱口秀演员谈论的正是那些困扰他们的问题，”陈丹说。

As his stature grew, Appell served as a resource for other comedians looking to perform, such as Tom Xia, a Chinese-born comedian who grew up in the United States but moved back in 2014. Appell even started a comedy club in Beijing.

随着地位的提升，艾杰西成了其他想在中国演出的艺人的领路人，比如汤姆·夏（音），他出生在中国，在美国长大，2014年回到中国。艾杰西甚至在北京开了一家喜剧俱乐部。

“The more I talked to Jesse, the more insecure I felt as a Chinese American,” Xia said. “It was constantly making me reassess how Chinese I was. And when he started serving me tea in his apartment, that really was the final blow.”

“和艾杰西聊得越多，作为华裔美国人的我就越没有安全感，”他说。“他不断地让我反思自己到底有多中国。他在家里给我倒茶的时候，我真是彻底服了。”

Appell also had to navigate Chinese censors. To perform comedy in China, comedians have to submit their routines for government review. In 2023, a Chinese comedy studio was fined $2 million because Li Haoshi, a comedian there, mocked the military in a routine. Appell said there were two types of censorship: the audience’s and the government’s. For example, he said Chinese audiences, unlike American audiences, prefer that comedians not name specific politicians in their routines, regardless of whether the censors allow it.

艾杰西还必须应对中国的审查制度。在中国表演，演员需要将段子提交政府审查。2023年，中国一家喜剧工作室被罚款1335万元，原因是一名艺人在演出中调侃了军队。艾杰西说存在两种审查：观众的和政府的。例如，他说中国观众不像美国观众，他们更倾向于演员不要在段子里点名具体的政治人物，无论审查是否允许。

In January 2020, after performing on the Chinese version of “Last Comic Standing,” Appell flew back to the United States for what he thought would be a nine-day vacation. Instead, Covid hit. His Chinese visa was canceled. His comedy club was closed down.

2020年1月，在参加完中国版的《搞笑之王》(Last Comic Standing)演出后，艾杰西飞回美国休假，本以为只有九天。结果，新冠疫情爆发。他的中国签证被取消，俱乐部也被迫关闭。

During the pandemic, Appell’s following in China exploded. Stuck at home, people had more time to watch videos, and that meant more exposure to Appell’s stand-up and a sketch show he wrote and performed in.

疫情期间，艾杰西在中国的粉丝量激增。人们被迫宅家，有更多时间看视频，这让他之前录制的脱口秀和情景短剧得到了更多曝光。

But the life he had spent years building in China was gone within days. Instead, he chose to reinvent himself and moved to Los Angeles. He’s still a comedian, performing often for Chinese American audiences. But he has also started a Chinese tea business that has taken off faster than he expected. He spends four months of the year in China, still performing but also to source tea for his business. .

然而，他扎根中国多年的生活却在几天内化为乌有。他选择在洛杉矶重新开始。他仍是一名喜剧演员，经常为华裔观众表演。同时，他还开始做中国茶叶生意，发展速度超乎预期。他一年中会有四个月待在中国，一边继续演出，一边采购茶叶。

“Now, I have bits I do in Chinese back in America about how my job now is figuring out how to make white people laugh because they buy the tickets,” Appell said, adding, “I have to play the white audience like a minority comedian would, weirdly.”

“现在我有些段子会用中文讲，说我的工作如何如何变成了琢磨怎么逗白人笑，因为买票的是白人，”艾杰西补充道，“很奇怪，我得像一个美国少数族裔艺人那样去拿白人观众做文章。”

If you’re reading this, you’re Chinese. Or so says a genre of online content, which delivers instructions to the newly initiated. You should wear slippers and practice qigong; lay a zhen jin on your pillow to sleep; and exclusively drink warm water, ideally steeped with apples, jujubes and goji berries. Since the phrase took off last year, many Westerners have claimed they are in “a very Chinese time” in their lives, taking to social media to evangelize about their newfound Sinophilia. They’re not only curious but also focused on the finer details: Should they peel their apples, for example, or even use pears instead?

如果你正在读这篇文章，那你就是中国人。或者说，至少有一类网络内容是这么说的，这些内容为新入门者提供各种指导。你应该在家穿拖鞋、要练八段锦；睡觉时枕头上要有枕巾；只喝热水，最好里面还泡上苹果、红枣和枸杞。自从这个说法去年流行起来后，许多西方人宣称自己进入了人生“非常中国的时刻”，并纷纷在社交媒体上热情分享他们新获得的中国热。他们不仅好奇，还开始钻研起各种细节：比如，吃苹果要不要削皮？甚至要不要改成吃梨？

References to “being Chinese” started as a mostly nonsensical joke, but they’ve become a trope that is loosely aspirational. Casual mimicry gradually emerged as creators “unlocked” their “Chinese uncle” personality (apparently: stoic; aloof; occasionally exposing midriff) or found themselves “damn close” to buying a floral quilted jacket, “the Chinese auntie drip” in one viewer’s words. Now whole swaths of the internet have “just found out” they’re Chinese or are declaring their complete transformation: “I don’t even call it Chinatown anymore, I just call it town,” states the text of one video. “That is how Chinese my mind has become.” The joke has become so common that “Chinamaxxing” has been applied to the most mundane activities — the American influencer Hasan Piker posted as much while standing before the Shanghai skyline, conspicuously pairing socks with slippers.

“成为中国人”的说法一开始只是个有点无厘头的玩笑，但后来演变成了一种带点向往意味的网络热梗。随意的模仿慢慢演变成创作者“解锁”自己的“中式大叔”人格（大概就是：面无表情、不太爱搭理人、偶尔露出肚皮），或者发现自己“差一点”就要买一件碎花棉袄——用一位观众的话说，就是“中式阿姨穿搭”。现在，有许多网友“突然发现”自己其实是中国人，或者宣称已经彻底转变：“我现在甚至不叫它‘唐人街’了，我就叫它‘街’，”一条视频的字幕这样写道，“这就是我的思维就是这么中国。”这个网络梗已经普及到连最日常的行为也被称为“极致中式生活”——美国网红哈桑·派克站在上海天际线前拍视频，还特意穿着袜子配拖鞋。

Several Chinese American influencers have happily taken up the role of cultural arbiter. Notable among them is Sherry Zhu, who often gives her audience lively Mandarin-English pep talks: Anyone staying in on a Friday night, for example, should instead eat hot pot and go to karaoke, because bed rotting is “not Chinese baddie of you.” That “baddie” persona has made its way into a range of wellness content, most of which appropriate traditional Chinese medicine. The content multiplied recently on the occasion of Lunar New Year, with one infographic illustrating the components of a “Chinease Baddie Morning Routine” — pun intended. It included photos of “morning herbs,” “meditation” and “gua sha” alongside a set of disembodied abs (labeled “lymph drain belly massage”) and a toilet (labeled, simply, “elimination”).

一些华裔美国网红欣然当起了文化仲裁者。其中较有代表性的是雪莉·朱（音），她常常用很有感染力的中英夹杂的方式给观众打气：比如周五晚上呆在家里的人应该去吃火锅、去唱K，因为整天躺着“并不符合中国辣妹的气质”。这种“辣妹”人设已经扩展到各种养生内容，其中很多都挪用了中医理念。最近借着农历新年的契机，这类内容激增，有一张信息图表展示了“中式舒缓辣妹晨间流程”（中式舒缓是故意把Chinese写成Chinease玩谐音梗）——包括“晨间草药”、“冥想”、“刮痧”，还有一些配图：一组腹肌（标注为“淋巴排毒腹部按摩”）和一个马桶（简单标注为“排泄”）。

Many Chinese people have of course objected to their culture’s being trivialized, even fetishized, by Western audiences — some have even likened the experience to the parasitic predation in Jordan Peele’s horror movie “Get Out.” In particular, the idea of being “diagnosed as Chinese” has stoked outrage for recalling stereotypes that were widely revived with the onset of the pandemic. “Where was this love for Chinese culture when they were getting attacked in the streets?” asks one user, recalling how anti-Asian hate crimes spiked in 2020, at a time when President Trump also called Covid-19 the “China virus.” His vitriol helped rekindle a long tradition of Sinophobia that casts China as irrevocably backward, even barbaric. In this “very Chinese time,” the same Orientalizing impulses have produced new variations on these themes: One “British guy showing you the real China,” for example, regularly telegraphs his immersion in the culture by toting a local beer in one hand and a cigarette in the other.

当然，也有不少中国人对此提出反对，认为他们的文化被西方受众过度简化，甚至被物化——有人把这种体验比作乔丹·皮尔的恐怖电影《逃出绝命镇》里的寄生式掠夺。尤其是“诊断为中国人”的说法引发了强烈不满，因为它让人联想到疫情之初遭重新激活的种族刻板印象。“当他们在街头遭到攻击的时候，这些对中国文化的‘热爱’在哪里？”一名社交媒体用户这样问到，同时回想起2020年反亚裔仇恨犯罪激增的时期，当时特朗普总统还把新冠病毒称为“中国病毒”。他的恶毒言论重新点燃了由来已久的恐华传统，把中国描绘成落后甚至野蛮的存在。在这个“非常中国的时刻”，类似的东方主义冲动又产生了新的变体：比如某个“英国小伙带你看真实中国”的博主，总是用一手拿着中国啤酒、一手夹着中国烟的形象来强调自己融入了中国文化。

What is unexpected about this trend — and certainly unthinkable just six years ago — is that these jokes are now inflected with reverence. As in the video that overlays scenes from Chinese pagodas, street markets and skylines with an admiring if enigmatic directive: “You have to get more locked in/You have to get more motion/You have to get more Chinese.” Or as one account articulates, parodying Confucius’ “Analects,” “The sinicization of a man’s mind comes not as an unbidden surprise, but is welcomed and greeted warmly like an old friend returning home.”

这个趋势出人意料的一点——当然在六年前几乎是不可想象的——是这些玩笑如今带有了敬意色彩。比如有一段视频，把中国的宝塔、街市和城市天际线画面配以既赞美又有点神秘的指令上：“你要更专注/你要更有行动力/你要更中国一点。”又或者有账号模仿《论语》写道：“归化于心也，非不期而至，乃悦而迎之，如故人归矣。”

Social media has long sustained cultural exchange between the United States and China, a relationship that seems to only strengthen when political tensions escalate. Anticipating Trump’s second presidency in early 2025 — and, more specifically, the proposed ban on TikTok — users in the United States pre-emptively sought out the app’s Chinese equivalent, Xiaohongshu, colloquially known as RedNote. It shot to the top of the U.S. Apple Store downloads list by mid-January. While many of these “TikTok refugees” simply wanted a new digital home, others took to the Chinese app to “troll” the American government. (Trump’s inauguration featured a coterie of tech elites whose net worth exceeded one trillion dollars.) “In short, we’re here to spite our government and to learn about China and hang out with you guys,” one such refugee posted on Xiaohongshu.

社交媒体长期以来一直维系着中美之间的文化交流，而这种关系似乎在政治紧张局势升级时反而会进一步加强。2025年初，随着人们预期特朗普将开启第二任期——更具体地说，预期TikTok会被禁——美国用户未雨绸缪，找到了另一款中国的应用程序小红书。到去年的1月中旬，它一跃登上美国苹果应用商店下载榜首。许多这样的“TikTok难民”只是想找一个新的数字家园，但也有许多人涌入这款中国应用，为的是“恶心”美国政府。（特朗普的就职典礼上聚集了一群科技巨头，他们的净资产总和超过一万亿美元。）其中一名“难民”在小红书上发帖说：“简而言之，我们来这里是为了恶心我们的政府，也是为了了解中国，和你们一起玩。”

When TikTok eventually announced its rescue by Trump, its refugees returned to the platform and business as usual — though something had palpably shifted in the course of their brief exile. Users began to find themselves in a “very Chinese time,” relaying visions of a foreign life: mass-market electric cars, socialized health care, high-speed rail. These only added to the impressions broadcast by tourists and professional vloggers over recent years, which steadily demystified life in China while also boosting it as a tourist destination for a new generation, an almost mythical place replete with otherworldly scenery and ultramodern technologies. Even Americans could see in these clips a vision of the future that hadn’t arrived at home.

当TikTok最终宣布被特朗普救下后，难民们回到了该平台，一切照旧——尽管在他们短暂的流亡过程中，某种东西显然已经发生了变化。用户们开始发现自己进入了“很中国的时刻”，分享着关于另一种生活的想象：普及型的电动车、社会化医疗、高铁。这些内容进一步印证了近年来游客和职业视频博主传递的印象——既持续不断地揭开了中国生活的神秘面纱，同时也将这个国家作为新一代旅游目的地加以推崇，一个拥有超现实美景和超现代科技的近乎神话般的地方。即使是美国人，也能在这些视频中看到自己国家尚未实现的未来图景。

As they observe the decline of their own country, American TikTokers continue to fantasize about “being Chinese”: In their minds, high-quality, low-cost living, with slippered feet and nourished spleens, is not for the privileged few but for all. If racist tropes once signaled Western dominance over “the Orient,” “Chinamaxxing” reveals how Americans now seem to surrender to certain kinds of Chinese influence. And if you aren’t already convinced, the algorithmic mechanics of social media will hold you captive to engage you directly. When one Chinese-born, Britain-based user tells his viewers, “If you’re watching this, you’re Chinese,” he means it materially: “Aren’t you scrolling on this Chinese app, probably on a Chinese-made phone, wearing clothes that are made in China, collecting dolls that are from China, wearing bags that are made in China, wearing perfumes that are made in China?”

在目睹自己国家衰落的同时，美国的TikTok用户继续幻想“成为中国人”：在他们心目中，高质量、低成本的生活——在家穿拖鞋、调养脾胃——并非少数特权阶级的专属，而是人人可得。如果说种族主义的刻板印象曾一度标志着西方对“东方”的支配，那么“极致中式生活”则揭示了美国人如今似乎在某种程度上臣服于中国的影响。如果你还没有被说服，社交媒体的算法会把你牢牢抓住，让你直接参与其中。当一位中国出生、生活在英国的用户告诉他的观众，“如果你正在看这个视频，你就是中国人，”他是从物质层面来说的。“你现在是不是在刷这款中国应用？可能你的手机也是中国制造的，穿的衣服是中国制造的，收藏的的玩偶来自中国，背的包是中国制造，喷的香水也是中国制造的吧？”

But just like other forms of aspirational content, many scenes of life in China are also edited to sustain a fantasy; fan-cam footage of high-speed rail highlights its delivery McDonald’s service but not the state’s use of surveillance to prevent “untrustworthy” citizens from boarding. Social media may have rendered life in China less mysterious, but by positioning it as aspirational, influencers have ensured that the “Orient” remains a receptacle for Western desires, especially on platforms that favor neat oppositions: right versus wrong, good versus evil, East versus West.

但就像其他类型的向往式内容一样，许多关于中国生活的场景同样经过了剪辑，以维持一种幻想；粉丝镜头下的高铁视频会突出车上可以点麦当劳外卖，却不会提及国家如何利用监控来阻止“失信”人员上车。社交媒体或许让中国生活不再那么神秘，但通过把它塑造成一种令人向往的对象，网红们确保了“东方”仍然是西方欲望的容器——尤其是在那些偏爱二元对立（对与错、善与恶、东方与西方）的平台上。

The grass is usually greener when viewed from the other side of the world and in curated, seconds-long clips. But pledging allegiance to a different country — or to your phone, or to a new wellness routine — rarely solves the root of the problem. Still, why would anyone stop now? Especially while feeling that life has improved since “becoming Chinese” — that is, since embracing explicit instruction on what to eat, wear and do. “Thank you, Congress,” beams one Western college student, having projected a Chinese flag on a television behind her while expressing her gratitude in Mandarin. “Without you none of this is possible, I love the People’s Republic of China!” The video is intended as a joke, though it evokes more earnest reactions. “I CAN’T LOSE THIS INTERNET,” says a top comment, liked by thousands whose fealty lies not with any country, per se, but with the state of being online.

当你从世界另一端、透过几秒钟的精修短视频来观看，别处的月亮总是更圆。但是向另一个国家（或者向你的手机，或者向一种新的养生方式）效忠很少能从根本上解决问题。不过，谁又会在此刻停下来呢？尤其是当你感觉到自从“成为中国人”以来——也就是说，自从接受了关于吃什么、穿什么、做什么的明确指导之后，感觉日子顺心了。“谢谢国会，”一位西方大学生笑容满面地用普通话表达感谢，她身后的电视上是一面中国国旗。“没有你们，这一切都不可能实现，我爱中华人民共和国！”这段视频本意是个玩笑，但它也唤起了一些更为真诚的回应。“我不能失去这个互联网，”一条热门评论写道，它获得了数千个赞，这些点赞者的效忠对象其实不是任何国家，而是在线这种状态本身。

After the United States and Israel went to war against Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. military began issuing a bulletin every few days listing the number of targets hit. By Wednesday it was more than 7,800 in total, up from over 1,000 on the first day of the war, while a similar Israeli count of strikes stood at 7,600 late last week.

2月28日美以对伊朗开战以来，美军每隔数日便发布公报，公布打击目标数量。截至周三，累计打击目标已超7800个，开战首日这一数字为1000余个；以色列方面的空袭统计数据显示，截至上周末，以军打击目标已达7600个。

It is, by any measure, a bombing campaign of historic proportions, and senior U.S. officials have lauded it repeatedly as a crushing blow to the Iranian armed forces. “Never before has a modern, capable military, which Iran used to have, been so quickly destroyed and made combat ineffective, devastated,” Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, said at a news conference last week.

无论以什么标准衡量，这都是一场历史性规模的轰炸行动。美国高层官员反复盛赞，此次行动对伊朗武装力量造成了毁灭性打击。国防部长皮特·海格塞思在上周的新闻发布会上表示：“伊朗曾拥有现代化、具备完备作战能力的军队，这样一支军队以如此快的速度被摧毁、丧失战斗力、遭到重创，这是前所未有的。”

And yet, Iran is not entirely crippled militarily. It continues to retaliate, often in unconventional ways. Its resistance, along with the political defiance of its new leaders, evokes a decades-old pattern of unrealized expectations for American interventions in the region.

然而，伊朗的军事力量并未完全瘫痪。它仍在持续反击，且往往采用非常规手段。伊朗的抵抗，加上其新任领导层的政治对抗姿态，让人想起数十年来美国在中东地区的干预行动中，屡屡出现的预期落空。

Global oil prices have inched upward as Iranian attacks have curtailed exports through the narrow, perilous Strait of Hormuz, including hitting a tanker on Tuesday near the waterway. Virtually every night, a barrage of Iranian missiles hits Israel and Persian Gulf nations allied with the United States, unsettling the population. Most cause little damage, but overall the fighting has killed more than 2,300 people in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and across the region.

伊朗的袭击限制了石油通过凶险狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡对外出口，全球油价随之小幅攀升，周二，伊朗还袭击了水道附近的一艘油轮。几乎每一夜，伊朗都会向以色列和美国的海湾盟友国发射密集导弹，引发当地民众不安。尽管大部分袭击造成的损失有限，但整场战事已在伊朗、黎巴嫩、以色列及整个地区造成超2300人死亡。

周三，以色列拉马特甘空袭现场的急救人员。

Iranian proxy militias in both Lebanon and Iraq have joined the fray, firing rockets into northern Israel and hitting the sprawling U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.

伊朗在黎巴嫩和伊拉克的代理民兵组织也已加入战局，向以色列北部发射火箭弹，并袭击了巴格达规模庞大的美国大使馆园区。

Despite the overwhelming force brought to bear against Iran, and the serial killings of its leaders, the regime has not toppled. Analysts are now weighing to what extent the promises of a “New Middle East” emerging from the conflict could prove as illusory as the ones from previous wars that embroiled Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq.

尽管对伊朗动用了压倒性军力，接连击杀其高层领导人，但伊朗政权并未倒台。分析人士如今正在评估，这场冲突将催生“新中东”的承诺究竟会在多大程度上像此前在被卷入加沙、黎巴嫩、伊拉克战争时做出的相关承诺一样，最终沦为泡影。

The United States has a tendency to overestimate what political outcomes can be engineered using overwhelming military power while underestimating the fallout, said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Gulf security issues. “Air power is the U.S. drug of choice — we love to believe that it can achieve big political effects and also big military effects, yet the historical record doesn’t support that.”

麻省理工学院专攻海湾安全问题的凯特琳·塔尔梅奇教授表示，美国总是倾向于高估动用压倒性军事实力所能塑造的政治结果，却低估其后续影响。“空中力量是美国偏爱的特效药——我们总愿意相信它能实现重大的政治，也能实现重大的军事效果，但历史记录并不支持这一点。”

While President Trump and other top U.S. officials repeatedly boast that Iran’s air force is extinct and its navy sits at the bottom of the sea, analysts noted that the country was never expected to take on the United States in a direct confrontation using a conventional military.

特朗普总统与美国其他高层官员屡屡吹嘘伊朗空军已全军覆没，海军也已沉入海底。但分析人士指出，外界本来也从未预期伊朗会动用常规军事力量，与美国展开正面对抗。

Instead, it relies on asymmetrical warfare, tactics designed to extend the war indefinitely until, it hopes, the cost saps the will of the Trump administration and Israel.

恰恰相反，伊朗依赖的是非对称作战——这类战术的核心目标是无限期拖长战争，希望战争代价耗尽特朗普政府与以色列的战斗意志。

周五，德黑兰举行了“耶路撒冷日”游行，这是一项一年一度的反以色列活动。

In the Gulf, for example, the naval wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has long used smaller craft to lay mines and deploys speedboats to mount lightning attacks. On land, Iran dispersed its forces to avoid their being vanquished in one fell swoop, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before he was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the war’s first day, was said to have ordered a succession plan four layers deep for every central military and government post.

例如，在海湾地区，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军长期使用小型船只布雷，出动快艇发动闪电式袭击。在陆地上，伊朗分散部署兵力，避免被一举歼灭。据称，在战争首日死于以色列空袭的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊生前下令，为所有中央军事与政府职位设立了四层纵深的继任方案。

Externally, drone and missile attacks strike targets that include military bases, oil infrastructure and airports in nearby Gulf countries not directly involved — all meant to stretch the battlefield as far as possible. “The main idea of their response is to expand the pain and inconvenience of this war for as many countries in the world as possible,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”

对外，伊朗通过无人机和导弹，袭击周边未直接参战的海湾国家的军事基地、石油基础设施和机场等目标。所有这些行动，都是为了尽可能扩大战场范围。《野心之战——美国、伊朗与中东的争斗》(Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East)一书作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔表示：“伊朗反击的核心思路就是让全球尽可能多的国家都感受到这场战争带来的痛苦与麻烦。”

From the regime’s perspective, he added, the stakes could not be higher, with Iran’s very survival at stake. “They are fighting for their positions and their lives,” he said.

他还说，在伊朗政权看来，这关乎国家存亡，风险再高不过。“他们是在为自己的权位和性命而战，”他说。

That pushed the often fractious leadership to set aside its differences, analysts said. The population is paying a huge price, with more than 1,300 people dead and urban residents either fleeing or living in fear as explosions erupt around them.

分析人士称，这让素来内讧不断的伊朗领导层放下了分歧。而民众则付出了惨痛代价：已有超1300人死亡，城市居民要么逃离家园，要么在身边接连不断的爆炸声中惶惶度日。

周五，一名女子从德黑兰一栋受损的建筑物里向外张望。

At the start of the war, both Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel called on Iranians to resume the protests that stalled in January after security forces gunned down thousands of participants. With such forces now threatening to shoot protesters as traitors, not to mention the bombs raining down, Mr. Trump has acknowledged that the moment might not be ideal. However, Mr. Netanyahu continues to stress that Israel is trying to spur the conditions for an uprising, with its military targeting the domestic security forces across Iran.

战争伊始，特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡都曾呼吁伊朗民众重启抗议活动——今年1月，伊朗安全部队枪杀了数千名抗议者后，相关抗议活动便陷入停滞。如今，安全部队威胁要将抗议者以叛国罪处决，更不用说还有漫天落下的炸弹，特朗普也已承认，当下或许并非发动抗议的理想时机。但内塔尼亚胡仍在强调，以色列正通过军事打击伊朗各地的国内安全部队，为民众起义创造条件。

Tzachi Hanegbi, a former national security adviser to Mr. Netanyahu, wrote in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Sunday that given their control of the skies, Israeli and American warplanes could provide close air support for protesters, acknowledging that it would be unprecedented.

内塔尼亚胡的前国家安全顾问扎奇·哈内格比周日在以色列《新消息报》撰文称，以色列和美国战机掌握着制空权，可以为抗议者提供近距离空中支援，他也承认这是史无前例的。

Wars intended to reshape the Middle East in recent history have instead taken ever more violent detours.

近代史上那些旨在重塑中东的战争最终都走上了愈发暴力的歧途。

In August 1982, after Israel invaded Lebanon, Ariel Sharon, the Israeli minister of defense, predicted that by driving out the Palestine Liberation Organization, “the whole infrastructure of violence and revolution has been broken.”

1982年8月，以色列入侵黎巴嫩后，时任以色列国防部长阿里埃勒·沙龙曾预言，赶走巴勒斯坦解放组织后，“暴力与革命的整个根基已被摧毁”。

Within months, a nascent Hezbollah dispatched suicide bombers against Israeli troops with devastating effect. Israeli forces have returned to Lebanon repeatedly in a conflict that ebbs and flows but never really ended. The latest incursion came this month after Hezbollah opened a second front in the war in support of Iran.

然而短短数月内，初兴的真主党就对以色列军队发动了自杀式炸弹袭击，造成毁灭性后果。此后以色列军队多次重返黎巴嫩，这场冲突时起时落，却从未真正终结。本月，真主党为支援伊朗，在战争中开辟第二战场，以色列再次发动了入侵。

The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 similarly produced bloody, unforeseen consequences. The year before, Mr. Netanyahu told the U.S. Congress that “if you take out Saddam — Saddam’s regime — I guarantee it will have an enormous positive reverberations on the region.”

2003年，美国入侵伊拉克，同样造成了血腥且始料未及的后果。此前一年，内塔尼亚胡曾对美国国会表示，“如果你们推翻萨达姆——萨达姆政权——我保证这将对该地区产生巨大的积极影响”。

Almost 4,500 American soldiers died in the conflict, along with tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians. The war gave rise to the Islamic State, a force still destabilizing the Middle East, and spurred Iran to build an alliance of regional militias.

在那场冲突中，近4500名美军士兵丧生，伊拉克平民死亡人数达到数万。那场战争催生了伊斯兰国，这股势力至今仍在扰乱中东局势，还促使伊朗建立起由地区民兵组成的联盟。

上周贝鲁特发生爆炸，浓烟升腾。

Some Israeli political commentators have likened the lack of an Iran strategy to Israel’s failure to dismantle the domination of both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

部分以色列政治评论员将对伊朗缺乏长远战略的状况和以色列未能铲除哈马斯在加沙、真主党在黎巴嫩的主导地位相提并论。

“Within this framework, an exaggerated picture has been conveyed to the public,” Michael Milstein, an Israeli analyst and former intelligence officer, wrote in Yedioth Ahronot last weekend. “According to which Hezbollah was almost ‘evaporated,’ the Iranian threat has been removed, Hamas is expected to dissipate and the Arab world is preparing to form a strategic alliance with Israel.”

以色列分析人士、前情报官员迈克尔·米尔斯坦上周末在《新消息报》撰文称：“在这套叙事框架下，一幅严重夸大的图景被传递给了公众。按照这套说法，真主党几乎‘灰飞烟灭’，伊朗威胁已被清除，哈马斯即将瓦解，阿拉伯世界正准备和以色列结成战略同盟。”

Instead of conveying reality, Mr. Milstein said in an interview, Israel leaned toward “fantasy,” especially since the bloody attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, did not lead to any official inquiry into what mistakes had allowed Hamas to kill more than 1,200 Israelis near Gaza. The subsequent war left more than 70,000 Gazans dead, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, and the entire enclave largely rubble.

米尔斯坦在采访中表示，以色列非但没有如实传递现实，反而倾向于“幻想”。尤其是2023年10月7日的血腥袭击发生后，官方并未展开任何正式调查，研究哪些失误导致哈马斯在加沙附近杀害1200多名以色列人。据哈马斯运营的加沙卫生部称，随后的战争造成超7万名加沙人死亡，整个加沙地带几乎沦为一片废墟。

Yet Hamas has not been dislodged, Mr. Milstein noted. “I really don’t like all these engineering ideas that we will redesign the Middle East and will change the hearts and minds of the people,” he said. “We really decided to learn nothing from history.”

米尔斯坦指出，哈马斯至今仍未被推翻。“我实在不喜欢那些构想——我们要重新设计中东，改变民众的思想观念，”他说。“我们显然已经下定决心，不打算从历史当中吸取任何教训。”

President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan have built a close relationship over the past few months, bonding over baseball and shared conservative values, and heaping praise on each other even as they spar over issues like trade.

过去几个月，特朗普总统与日本首相高市早苗建立了密切的关系——两人因棒球和共同的保守价值观而产生共鸣，即使在贸易等问题上存在分歧时也相互大加赞赏。

That friendship is about to undergo a major test on Thursday as Ms. Takaichi visits the White House for the first time.

然而，这段友谊将在周四面临大考，届时高市将首次访问白宫。

Spurned by European allies, Mr. Trump is expected to use the summit meeting to urge Japan to dispatch minesweepers and maritime forces to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as the war in the Mideast enters its third week. He has already piled on the pressure, suggesting that Japan owes the United States for years of defense aid and that Japan must act because of its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil.

随着欧洲盟友拒绝合作，预计特朗普将利用此次峰会敦促日本在中东战争进入第三周之际派遣扫雷艇和海上兵力，协助重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。他已经施加了压力，暗示日本多年来接受美国的防务援助是欠了人情的，而且由于日本高度依赖中东石油，它必须采取行动。

The demands have put Ms. Takaichi, a hard-line conservative who last fall became the first woman to lead Japan as prime minister, in a difficult position. She is constrained not just by Japan’s pacifist constitution, but overwhelming public opposition: Only 9 percent of Japanese endorse the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, according to a recent poll by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.

这些要求让去年秋天成为日本首位女性首相的强硬保守派高市早苗陷入了困境。她不仅受到日本和平宪法的限制，而且还面临压倒性的公众反对：根据《朝日新闻》最近的一项民调，只有9%的日本人支持美以对伊朗的打击行动。

Now Ms. Takaichi faces the delicate task of finding a way to signal support for Mr. Trump without getting entangled in the war. She must do so in the high-pressure forum of the White House, over lunch and dinner with a president who seems increasingly impatient and aggrieved.

如今，高市面临的任务很微妙——要找到一种既能表示支持特朗普，又不会卷入战争的方法。而且她必须是在白宫这个高压场合，在与一位似乎越来越不耐烦、越来越愤愤不平的总统共进午餐和晚餐时做到这一点。

2023年，日本海上自卫队的一艘扫雷艇在冲绳县附近海域。

“This was supposed to be a pretty straightforward, easy summit,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “Now it’s exactly what the Japanese don’t want: an unpredictable situation with no obvious answers.”

华盛顿美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀表示：“这原本应该是一场相当直接、轻松的峰会。现在却成了日本人最不希望看到的情况：一种没有明确答案、难以预测的局面。”

The Iran crisis could hit Japan hard; the country imports almost all its energy, and about 95 percent of its oil comes from the Middle East — a fact that Mr. Trump has eagerly highlighted in recent days.

伊朗危机可能对日本造成重创；日本几乎所有能源都依赖进口，其中约95%的石油来自中东——这一点在最近几天被特朗普反复强调。

The United States is Japan’s chief ally, and Ms. Takaichi is counting on Mr. Trump for help in countering China’s growing military and economic clout in Asia. While European allies have openly sought distance from the conflict, Ms. Takaichi has been more equivocal.

美国是日本的主要盟友，高市正指望特朗普帮助她抗衡中国在亚洲日益增长的军事和经济影响力。在美国的欧洲盟友公开寻求与冲突保持距离不同，高市的态度则更为含糊。

She has said it would be “legally difficult” for Japan to order its navy to take part in security operations at sea, and that the Iran situation did not yet constitute a “survival-threatening” situation for Japan that would allow a military response. But she has also said she is considering “what we can do.” And she has refrained from commenting on the legality of the U.S.-Israeli attack.

她曾表示，从法律角度看，日本很难命令其海军参与海上安全行动，而当前的伊朗局势尚未构成允许日本采取军事回应的“威胁国家生存”的情形。但她同时也表示，正在考虑“我们能做什么”。对于美以袭击的合法性，她一直不予置评。

伊朗危机有可能对日本造成重创，因为日本的能源几乎完全依赖进口，其中约95%的石油来自中东。

Mr. Trump appears to have his eye on Japan’s fleet of advanced minesweepers, which could help escort oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Japan deployed them to the Persian Gulf in 1991 — the military’s first overseas mission since the end of World War II — but only after the American combat mission there had ended.

特朗普似乎看中了日本的先进扫雷艇舰队，它们可以帮助在霍尔木兹海峡为油轮护航。日本曾在1991年向波斯湾派遣扫雷艇——那是二战结束后日本自卫队的首次海外行动——但那是在美国作战行动已经结束后派出的。

In 2019, during his first term, Mr. Trump pressured Japan to play a more active role in protecting its interests in the Middle East after a series of attacks on oil tankers in the region. Japan responded by sending maritime defense forces to patrol shipping lanes and gather intelligence. But it steered clear of the Strait of Hormuz, an apparent attempt to avoid giving the impression that it was standing with the United States against Iran, with which Japan has long maintained friendly relations.

2019年，在特朗普的第一个任期内，中东发生一系列油轮遇袭事件后，他曾向日本施压，要求该国在保护其中东利益方面发挥更积极的作用。作为回应，日本派遣了海上自卫队巡逻航道并收集情报。但它避开了霍尔木兹海峡，显然是为了避免给人一种站在美国一边反对伊朗的印象，而日本与伊朗长期以来保持着友好关系。

The question of dispatching the military overseas is fraught in Japan, where memories of World War II still linger. Pacifism is enshrined in the Constitution, with a clause known as Article 9 calling for the complete renunciation of war.

在日本，是否向海外派遣军队始终是一个高度敏感的问题，因为二战的记忆仍然挥之不去。和平主义被写入宪法，其中被称为“第九条”的条款明确规定彻底放弃战争。

In 2015, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — a friend to both Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi — made it easier to send the military abroad, revising the law to permit overseas combat missions alongside allied troops in the name of “collective self-defense.”

2015年，时任首相安倍晋三——特朗普和高市早苗共同的朋友——放宽了向海外派遣自卫队的限制，同时修订法律，允许他们以“集体自卫”的名义与盟军一起执行海外作战任务。

But the situation must be deemed a threat to Japan’s survival. Alternatively, the law permits the military to be deployed overseas — but only after fighting has stopped.

但前提是，这种情况必须被认定为对日本生存构成威胁。另一种情况是，根据法律，自卫队也可以在战斗结束后被派往海外。

2023年，日本种子岛附近，日本自卫队参加两栖登陆演习。

Japanese lawmakers have raised concerns that the attacks by the United States and Israel violate international law, and some commentators have urged Ms. Takaichi to take a neutral approach.

日本国会议员对美以的打击行动是否违反国际法表示担忧，一些评论人士也呼吁高市采取中立立场。

“Dispatching Japanese patrol ships would almost certainly be seen as siding with the United States, undermining Japan’s standing in the international community,” read an editorial this week in Mainichi Shimbun, a prominent Japanese newspaper.

“派遣日本巡逻舰几乎肯定会被视为站在美国一边，从而削弱日本在国际社会中的地位，”日本主要报纸《每日新闻》在本周的一篇社论写道。

Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi had an easy rapport when they first met last October in Tokyo, discussing their shared admiration for Mr. Abe, who was assassinated in 2022.

去年10月，特朗普与高市在东京首次会面时建立了融洽的关系，两人谈到了他们对2022年遇刺身亡的安倍晋三的共同敬仰。

The summit this week was supposed to be a chance to rekindle that chemistry. Japanese officials had hoped to use the meeting to persuade Mr. Trump to avoid making a sweeping deal with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that would jeopardize the security of allies in the region. Japan is also eager to highlight investments in the United States and joint efforts to reduce reliance on China for rare earth metals.

本周的峰会本应是重新点燃这种默契的机会。日本官员原本希望利用此次会晤说服特朗普，避免与中国领导人习近平达成一项会危及地区盟友安全的全面协议。日本也急于强调在美国的投资，以及双方在减少对中国稀土金属依赖方面的合作努力。

Ms. Takaichi will be looking to gauge Mr. Trump’s timeline and strategy for the war, analysts said, given the damage it could inflict on Japan’s economy and society. Japan is concerned that the conflict could affect its security if the United States continues to move warships, missiles and air defenses from Asia to the Middle East.

分析人士称，考虑到这场战争可能对日本经济和社会造成的冲击，高市将试图摸清特朗普对这场战争的时间表和战略。日本担心，如果美国继续将战舰、导弹和防空力量从亚洲转移到中东，这场冲突可能会影响日本的安全。

Jeffrey W. Hornung, an expert on Japan at the RAND Corporation, a research group in Washington, said that Ms. Takaichi would face the challenge of responding in real time to Mr. Trump’s demands.

华盛顿智库兰德公司的日本问题专家杰弗里·霍农表示，高市将面临如何实时回应特朗普要求的挑战。

“If Takaichi goes there and says, ‘This is a huge concern for us,’ and Trump turns around and says, ‘So what are you going to do about it?’— I don’t know how Japan answers that question,” he said.

他说：“如果高市去了那里说，‘这对我们来说是一个重大关切’，而特朗普反问‘那你打算怎么办？’——我不知道日本如何回答这个问题。”

The Chinese government is taking actions to penalize people linked to Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Manus, a Singapore artificial intelligence start-up with Chinese roots, in an apparent effort to discourage Chinese A.I. executives from moving businesses offshore, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

据两位知情人士透露，中国政府正在采取行动，对与Meta以20亿美元收购源于中国的新加坡人工智能初创公司Manus的交易关联人员进行处罚，此举显然是为了阻止中国人工智能高管将业务迁至海外。

Officials at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, a high-level ministry that oversees economic planning including A.I., called in Meta and Manus executives for a meeting late last week to express concerns about the deal, which was announced in December, said the people, who declined to be named publicly in order to discuss sensitive issues.

上述人士称，上周晚些时候，中国国家发展改革委的官员——该机构是负责包括人工智能领域的经济规划的高级部门——召集Meta和Manus的高管开会，对这项于去年12月宣布的交易表达了关切。由于涉及敏感话题，上述知情人士要求匿名。

The scope of the Chinese government’s actions remains unclear but appears to include an effort to restrict Manus executives from departing China for Singapore, one of the people said. Beijing has issued exit bans in the past for corporate executives who were under scrutiny.

其中一名知情人士称，目前中国政府采取措施的具体范围尚不清楚，但似乎包括限制Manus高管离开中国前往新加坡。过去，北京方面曾对接受审查的企业高管实施出境限制。

“The transaction complied fully with applicable law,” Andy Stone, a Meta spokesman, said in a statement. “The outstanding team at Manus is now deeply integrated into Meta.”

Meta发言人安迪·斯通在声明中表示：“该交易完全符合适用法律。Manus这支优秀的团队现已已经深度整合进Meta。”

He added, “We anticipate an appropriate resolution to the inquiry.”

他还补充说：“我们预计调查将得到妥善解决。”

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it was not aware of the specifics of the case. Manus and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

中国驻华盛顿大使馆表示不了解此事的具体情况。Manus以及白宫方面均未回应置评请求。

Manus was founded by Chinese engineers and had a Chinese parent company before moving to Singapore. Last year, the start-up turned heads in Silicon Valley with an A.I. application that carried out complex tasks without human oversight.

Manus由中国的工程师创办，在迁至新加坡之前曾有一家中国母公司。去年，这家初创公司凭借一款无需人工干预即可执行复杂任务的人工智能应用，在硅谷引起了广泛关注。

Meta’s purchase of Manus became a rare deal that linked talent from the United States and China, which are vying for dominance over cutting-edge A.I. It was Meta’s second acquisition in a matter of months after the Silicon Valley company, which owns Facebook and Instagram, was found not to have violated U.S. antitrust law in November. Meta is spending billions on A.I. researchers and data centers in a race to lead the technology.

Meta收购Manus成为一笔罕见的交易，它将来自美国和中国的人才联系在一起——两国正争夺前沿人工智能领域的主导地位。这也是Meta在数月内进行的第二起收购，此前这家拥有Facebook和Instagram的硅谷企业在去年11月被认定未违反美国反垄断法。Meta正投入数十亿美元用于人工智能研究人员和数据中心建设，以争夺技术领先地位。

In January, Chinese officials said they were investigating whether the deal violated Chinese rules requiring companies to obtain approval for the export of certain technologies, including interactive A.I. systems. They are also assessing whether the deal violated China’s rules on outbound investment.

今年1月，中国官员表示，他们正在调查该交易是否违反了中国关于企业出口某些技术（包括交互式人工智能系统）需获得批准的规定。他们还在评估这笔交易是否违反了中国关于对外投资的相关规定。

With the acquisition complete, it’s unclear what the Chinese government would do. In addition to exit bans, the Chinese authorities may try to claw back the export of data, experts said, or declare that Manus’s departure to Singapore was not lawful.

由于收购已经完成，目前尚不清楚中国政府将采取何种行动。专家表示，除了出境禁令，中国当局可能试图收回已出口的数据，或宣布Manus迁往新加坡的行为不合法。

The developments send a pointed signal to an A.I. industry that, despite U.S.-Chinese tensions, has been defined by the flow of talent and technology between the two nations. The friction could shut down the path Manus took, in which Chinese executives register companies outside China to sidestep regulations from both Washington and Beijing.

事态发展向人工智能行业发出了一个明确信号——尽管中美关系紧张，但该行业一直以两国间人才和技术的流动为特征。这种摩擦可能会堵死Manus所走的路径，即中国高管在海外注册公司，以规避来自华盛顿和北京双方的监管。

Any sharper punishment would underscore growing fears in Beijing about losing A.I. talent and business to the United States. Exit bans may stoke concerns among talented Chinese engineers about leaving to work in the United States, or remaining at American companies where many have pivotal roles.

任何更严厉的惩罚都将凸显北京日益加深的担忧，即人工智能人才和业务流向美国。出境禁令可能会引发中国顶尖工程师的担忧——他们不仅担心是否还能赴美工作，也担心是否还能继续留在那些他们担任要职的美国企业里。

The moves could also trigger a reaction in Washington, where officials have recently moved to allow a greater flow of high-end A.I. chips to Chinese firms.

这些举措也可能在华盛顿引发反应。近期，美国官员才刚刚开始放宽限制，允许更多高端人工智能芯片流向中国企业。

The incident comes at a sensitive moment for the U.S.-Chinese relationship. American and Chinese officials met on Sunday and Monday to prepare for a planned visit by President Trump to China to meet Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, at the end of the month. But Mr. Trump said on Monday that he had asked the Chinese government to delay his visit because of the war in Iran. On Tuesday, he said he expected the meeting to happen in “five or six weeks.”

这一事件发生在美中关系的敏感时刻。美中官员已于周日和周一会面，为特朗普总统本月晚些时候访华与中国国家主席习近平会晤做准备。但特朗普周一表示，由于伊朗战争，他已要求中国政府推迟此次访问。周二他又称，预计会面将在“五到六周内”举行。

Last Wednesday and Thursday, the United States initiated two separate trade investigations into China and a number of other countries that are expected to result in higher tariffs.

上周三和周四，美国启动了两项分别针对中国及其他多个国家的贸易调查，预计它们将导致更高的关税。

The investigations targeted “excess capacity” in foreign factory sectors and trade in forced-labor goods, two issues that the United States has typically connected with China. In the past, Beijing responded to Washington’s trade moves by taking retaliatory actions against U.S. companies.

这些调查针对外国制造业的“产能过剩”以及涉及强迫劳动商品的贸易——这两个问题美国通常都与中国联系在一起。过去，北京方面曾通过针对美国公司采取报复性行动来回击华盛顿的贸易举措。

Shengyu Wang, a research assistant at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said the Chinese government’s scrutiny of Meta could be an effort to create “some bargaining chips ahead of the trade talks” with the United States, as well as signaling to Chinese A.I. researchers not to try to follow in Manus’s footsteps.

亚洲协会政策研究所中国分析中心研究助理王晟宇（音）表示，中国政府对Meta的审查可能是为了在与美国即将举行的贸易谈判中“增加一些谈判筹码”，同时也是向中国的人工智能研究人员发出信号，告诫他们不要试图效仿Manus的路径。

If Beijing tolerated this deal, Mr. Wang said, other Chinese A.I. researchers might try to build apps using China’s research and development ecosystem before leaving to be acquired by an American firm.

王晟宇说，如果北京方面容忍这笔交易，其他中国人工智能研究人员可能会尝试利用中国的研发生态系统开发应用，然后再离开并被美国公司收购。

Meta’s deal for Manus could come up in talks between American and Chinese officials, as could the U.S. government’s ongoing review of the Chinese internet giant Tencent’s minority stake in Epic Games, the U.S. maker of the hit video game Fortnite. Chinese electric vehicle companies have also been hoping that Beijing will press for more access to the U.S. market.

Meta收购Manus的交易可能会成为中美官员会谈的议题，同样有可能被提及的，还有美国政府正在进行的对中国互联网巨头腾讯持有Epic Games少数股权的审查。Epic Games是美国公司，开发了热门电子游戏《堡垒之夜》。中国电动汽车公司也一直希望北京方面能施压，为其争取更多进入美国市场的机会。

Many Chinese tech start-up founders aspire to launch a global hit product and attract funding from Silicon Valley investors. To get around scrutiny from Washington and Beijing, a few Chinese tech companies, including Shein and TikTok, moved their headquarters to locations like Singapore.

许多中国科技初创公司的创始人都渴望推出风靡全球的产品，并吸引硅谷投资者的资金。为了避开华盛顿和北京的审查，包括Shein和TikTok在内的一些中国科技公司已将总部迁至新加坡等地。

Roselyn Hsueh, a professor of political science at Temple University, said the practice was known as “Singapore washing.” The term refers to the idea that Chinese companies could “wash away their Chinese identity” by going to a third country, she said.

天普大学政治学教授薛媖月表示，这种做法被称为“新加坡洗白”(Singapore washing)。她解释说，这个说法指的是中国公司通过迁往第三国，“洗掉自己的中国身份”。

“You see more and more companies either doing so or wanting to do so,” she said. “For several reasons, they want to circumvent regulators, particularly in more sensitive sectors like A.I.”

她说：“你看到越来越多的公司正在这样做，或者有这种打算。出于多种原因，它们希望规避监管，尤其是在像人工智能这样更敏感的领域。”

Israeli military and political officials on Tuesday trumpeted the killing of Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto leader, as a feat of intelligence and military prowess.

以色列军方和政治官员周二大肆宣扬击杀伊朗事实上的领导人阿里·拉里贾尼，称这是情报和军事能力的杰出成就。

Combined with a deadly strike targeting top commanders of the country’s internal-security militia, it was the most damaging blow to the Iranian leadership since the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attack. Airstrikes that day killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his top military commanders in a Tehran compound.

再加上针对该国内部安全民兵高层指挥官的致命打击，这是继美以第一天的攻击之后，伊朗领导层遭受的最沉重打击。在第一天的行动中，对一个德黑兰大院的空袭杀死了最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其最高军事指挥官。

It also highlighted how heavily Israel is relying on targeted killings to achieve its war aims — especially its goal of destabilizing the Iranian government and helping make way for a popular uprising by weakening its internal-security forces. Earlier this year, those forces killed thousands of unarmed protesters.

这也凸显了以色列在实现战争目标时多么依赖定点清除——尤其是其目标是通过削弱伊朗内部安全力量来动摇伊朗政府，并为民众起义铺平道路。今年早些时候，这些力量杀害了数千名手无寸铁的抗议者。

“If we persist in this, we will give them a chance to take their fate into their own hands,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israelis in a video message Tuesday.

“如果我们坚持这样做，我们将给他们一个机会，让他们自己掌握命运，”总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周二在一段视频信息中对以色列人说。

Israel Katz, the country’s bombastic defense minister, said he had ordered the military to keep hunting down Iranian leaders and to “repeatedly cut off the head of the octopus and not let it grow.”

言辞夸张的以色列国防部长以色列·卡茨表示，他已下令军方继续追杀伊朗领导人，“反复砍掉章鱼的头，不让它再生。”

But Mr. Larijani’s death raises questions about whether Israel is killing so many Iranian leaders because that appears the surest way to achieve its military objectives — or merely because it can. The approach carries a risk of backfiring in unforeseeable ways.

但拉里贾尼之死引发了疑问：以色列之所以杀死这么多伊朗领导人，是因为这似乎是实现军事目标的最可靠方式——还是仅仅因为它有这个能力。这种做法可能会产生出人意料的反效果。

Israel has long experience eliminating its enemies.

以色列在消灭敌人方面有着丰富的经验。

In 1972, after 12 of its Olympic athletes were slain in Munich, Israel launched a yearslong campaign of vengeance aimed at killing every person responsible. In the early 2000s, it gunned down or blew up many Palestinians it accused of terrorism during the Second Intifada. And in 2024, it killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in an airstrike on his headquarters in Beirut. (His successor was killed in an airstrike days later.)

1972年，12名以色列运动员在慕尼黑奥运会期间被杀，以色列随后发起了一场长达数年的复仇行动，目标是杀死每一名责任人。2000年代初，在“第二次起义”期间，以色列枪杀或炸死了许多被其指控从事恐怖主义的巴勒斯坦人。2024年，它在贝鲁特总部空袭中杀死了真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。（他的继任者在几天后的空袭中也被杀死。）

Some Israeli analysts say there is at least some basis to believe that the tactic could now undercut Iran enough that the government signals a readiness to compromise on its nuclear ambitions and ballistic-missile capabilities.

一些以色列分析人士表示，至少有一定依据相信，这种战术现在可能足以削弱伊朗，让政府表示愿意在核野心和弹道导弹能力上做出妥协。

Sima Shine, a former Mossad officer and expert on Iran and its proxies at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted that the Nasrallah killing helped weaken Hezbollah to the point that the Iranian-backed militant group agreed to a cease-fire with Israel in late 2024.

前摩萨德官员、特拉维夫国家安全研究所伊朗及其代理人问题专家西玛·希恩指出，杀死纳斯鲁拉有助于削弱真主党，以至于这个伊朗支持的武装团体在2024年底同意与以色列停火。

“It might come to a point where they say, this is too much for us,” Ms. Shine said. “We are not there yet, and they’re not saying it, but it might happen.”

“到了一定的时候，他们可能会说，我们撑不下去了，”希恩说。“我们还没到那一步，他们还没这么说，但这是有可能的。”

本月在德黑兰，伊朗人悼念逝世的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。

Eliminating commanders of the internal security militia, the Basij, could similarly go a long way toward persuading its lower-ranking members “to wake up in the morning and not go to work,” she said.

消灭内部安全民兵巴斯基的指挥官，同样可能在很大程度上说服其低级别成员“早上醒来决定不去上班”，她说。

But killing a top Iranian leader like Mr. Larijani could prove counterproductive, depending on who takes his place, Israeli analysts warned.

但以色列分析人士警告，杀死像拉里贾尼这样的伊朗高层领导人可能适得其反，这取决于谁接替他的位置。

Mr. Larijani had a reputation as a pragmatist capable of working with moderates and hard-line military leaders alike, she said. His death could bolster hard-liners like the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, himself a former I.R.G.C. commander.

希恩说，拉里贾尼以务实著称，能够同时与温和派和强硬派军事领导人合作。他的死亡可能加强像伊斯兰革命卫队负责人以及伊朗议会发言人穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫这样的强硬派的力量，后者本身也是前革命卫队指挥官。

“They are the ones actually conducting the war,” Ms. Shine said. “And strengthening the I.R.G.C. means continuing the resistance, continuing the war, and making demands that are unacceptable to the U.S. and Israel.”

“他们才是真正指挥这场战争的人，”希恩说。“加强革命卫队意味着继续抵抗、继续战争，并提出美国和以色列无法接受的要求。”

Others argue that Iran’s leadership — its “bench,” in sports terms — is too deep for Israel ever to bring its government to the point of collapse. After Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, Iran named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a fellow hard-liner, to succeed him as supreme leader.

其他人则认为，伊朗领导层的“板凳深度”（借用体育术语）太深，以色列永远无法把这个政府推到崩溃边缘。哈梅内伊被杀后，伊朗任命了他的儿子、同样强硬的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊接任最高领袖。

“Decapitation has its limitations,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence. “I don’t think we’ve scratched the surface in the ability of Iran to find replacements that can take over for the people that have been decapitated.”

“斩首有其局限性，”前以色列军事情报伊朗部门负责人丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。“伊朗在斩首行动后能找到替代者，我认为我们还远未影响到他们在这方面的能力。”

Mr. Citrinowicz noted that Israel killed nearly all of Hamas’s leaders in Gaza, and both Mr. Nasrallah and his successor as Hezbollah’s leader. Yet both organizations are still functioning, if significantly weakened.

西特里诺维奇指出，以色列几乎杀死了加沙哈马斯的所有领导人，以及真主党的纳斯鲁拉及其继任者。然而这两个组织仍在运作，尽管明显削弱。

“It’s not that I don’t think decapitation is an important tool,” he said. “But we can’t build a strategy only on that.”

“并不是说我认为斩首不是重要工具，”他说。“但我们不能把斩首作为唯一战略。”

A healthy respect for the unknown — like unintended consequences — also argues against an overreliance on targeted killings, said Ami Ayalon, 80, a former commander of Israel’s internal security agency and of its navy.

前以色列国内安全机构和海军指挥官、现年80岁的阿米·阿亚隆也反对过度依赖定点清除，因为对未知的东西应该留有一些敬畏——比如意想不到的后果。

In an interview, he recalled warning disbelieving American officials that toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq would unleash chaos, not the flowering of democracy.

在一次采访中，他回忆起曾警告不相信他的美国官员，推翻伊拉克萨达姆·侯赛因将引发混乱，而不是民主之花绽放。

“We are very, very close to creating chaos not only in Iran, but all over the Middle East,” Mr. Ayalon said.

“我们非常、非常接近在伊朗乃至整个中东制造混乱，”阿亚隆说。

He faulted American and Israeli leaders for failing to articulate clear, achievable objectives for the war. And he suggested that Mr. Netanyahu’s optimistic but vague talk of “creating the conditions” for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime was misguided, misleading or both.

他指责美国和以色列领导人未能就这场战争明确阐述一个清晰、可实现的目标。他还表示，内塔尼亚胡乐观但模糊地谈论“为伊朗人民推翻政权创造条件”，这要么他被误导了，要么是他在误导人，或两者兼有。

“Let’s assume that Bibi is right,” he said, using Mr. Netanyahu’s nickname. “It will take months or years. There are millions of people who depend on the regime, and they understand that on the day after the war, they’re going to be slaughtered. And they will fight and kill in order to not see that happen.”

“假设比比是对的，”他用内塔尼亚胡的昵称说。“这需要几个月或几年。有数百万人依赖这个政权，他们明白战争结束后他们立刻会被杀死。为了不让那一天到来，他们会战斗、会杀人。”

Mr. Ayalon added: “In chess, there are stupid players who think that it’s enough to kill the king to win. But in the case of ideology, every player plays a major role on the battlefield.”

阿亚隆补充道：“在国际象棋中，有些愚蠢的棋手以为杀死国王就赢了。但在意识形态层面，每个人都在战场上扮演重要角色。”

Members of the Trump administration have some big shoes to fill: Their own.

特朗普政府的一众官员眼下的大任务，居然是穿好自己的大鞋子。

In recent months, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy have all been photographed wearing shoes that look a half-size or so too large for them. A gap as wide as a finger sits between the back of the shoe and their socked heels.

近几个月，国务卿鲁比奥、副总统万斯，以及交通部长肖恩·达菲都被拍到穿着比自己脚码大了半号左右的鞋子。鞋后跟和穿着袜子的脚跟之间的空隙甚至能塞进一根手指。

The tale of the administration’s too-big shoes began when President Trump told The New York Times in January that he had recently purchased four new pairs for both Mr. Rubio and Mr. Vance (whom he referred to as “kids”).

这场政府官员“大鞋风波”的缘起，是特朗普总统今年1月接受《纽约时报》采访时透露，他最近刚给鲁比奥和万斯（他称两人是“孩子们”）各买了四双新鞋。

“I never like cabinet members walking in sneakers,” Mr. Trump said on the Fox commentator Brian Kilmeade’s radio show last week. “Sneakers are wonderful, but I don’t want my cabinet members wearing sneakers, so I’ll get them a pair of shoes. It’s a gift from Donald Trump.”

“我向来不喜欢内阁成员穿运动鞋出门，”特朗普上周在福克斯新闻评论员布莱恩·基尔米德的广播节目中说。“运动鞋当然很好，但我不希望我的内阁成员穿运动鞋，所以我给他们买了正装鞋。这是唐纳德·特朗普的礼物。”

He added, “Now they look all spiffy and nice.”

他还说：“现在他们看起来个个精神利落、体面得很。”

A representative for Florsheim, a Wisconsin-based dress shoe company, confirmed to The Times that a White House assistant had placed orders and that the shoes had been shipped to an address in Fairfax, Va. Dozens of pairs were delivered to this address, according to the company. Florsheim’s standard cap-toe dress shoes sell for $145. They are not made in America.

总部位于威斯康星州的正装鞋品牌富乐绅(Florsheim)的发言人向《纽约时报》证实，白宫一名助理曾下单采购，鞋子被寄往弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯市的一个地址。该公司称，有数十双鞋被送到了这个地址。富乐绅经典款包头正装鞋售价145美元，并非美国本土生产。

During a December speech, filmed by the right-wing pundit Benny Johnson, Mr. Vance recounted how, during a meeting in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump went around the room asking everyone for shoe sizes so he could buy them new shoes: Mr. Rubio was an 11.5, Mr. Vance a 13. According to Mr. Vance, the president then asked a third unnamed politician in the room, who shared that he was a size 7, to which Mr. Trump said: “You know you can tell a lot about a man by his shoe size.”

去年12月，在由右翼评论员本尼·约翰逊拍摄的一次演讲中，万斯讲了这样一件事：在椭圆形办公室的会上，特朗普挨个询问在场所有人的鞋码，说要给他们买新鞋。鲁比奥穿11.5码，万斯是13码。万斯说，总统随后问了在场另一位政界人士（万斯没有透露他的姓名），此人说自己穿七码的鞋，特朗普当即回应：“你们知道吗，看一个人的鞋码，能看出太多东西了。”

But Mr. Trump seemed not to aim for precision in his gifting. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Mr. Trump often guessed a person’s size.

但特朗普送礼时，似乎并不追求尺码精准。《华尔街日报》上周报道称，特朗普常常靠猜测给人选鞋码。

Men’s shoe specialists were not at all surprised that the president appeared to be guessing too big. Men, they said, often buy the wrong size when buying their own shoes. And they almost always estimate too large.

男鞋专家对总统似乎总会选大尺码的行为一点都不意外。他们说，男性就算给自己买鞋，也常常买错码，而且几乎总是往大了买。

特朗普总统曾公开表示，他为内阁成员购买过鞋子，其中包括鲁比奥和副总统万斯。

“It definitely starts with, ‘I’m the big man, I wear the bigger shoe,’” said Kevin Wright, the operations manager at Brick + Mortar, a specialty shoe shop in Seattle. Men tend to seize on the largest size they ever were at any point. If a man wore a size 11 athletic cleat in high school, he’ll forever be convinced he’s an 11, not the 10 he truly needs in a dress shoe.

“这本质上就是一种心态：‘我是大男人，就得穿大鞋。’”西雅图精品鞋店Brick + Mortar的运营经理凯文·赖特说。男性总执着于自己人生中穿过的最大鞋码：如果一个男人高中时穿11码的运动钉鞋，那他这辈子都会坚信自己穿11码，却不知道穿正装鞋时他其实只需要穿10码。

“It’s a macho thing,” agreed Sean Moran, the owner of Dashing, a high-end shoe store in Chicago. “It’s still based on that whole your-shoe-size-is-your-package-size thing.”

芝加哥高端鞋店Dashing的店主肖恩·莫兰对此表示认同：“这就是大男子主义作祟。说到底，还是脱不开‘鞋码代表那话儿尺寸’的坊间说法。”

Mr. Moran’s clients are footwear obsessives — his shop is the sort of place that charges $25 just to properly measure your foot — but he did recall a customer several years ago who requested a size 9 when he was in fact a 6. “I’m like, It’s $1,400, you’re buying the wrong size,” he said, but when the man looked at his proper, smaller shoe, he replied, “No, I just can’t wear these.”

莫兰的客户都是鞋履爱好者——他的店光是精准量脚就要收25美元——但他还记得，几年前，有位顾客明明脚是六码的尺寸，却非要买九码的鞋。“我跟他说，这鞋要1400美元，你买错码了，”他说，可当这位顾客看到合脚的小码鞋时，却直接回应：“不行，这个我是真穿不下。”

Mostly, though, shoe sellers felt that men bought the wrong size shoe just because they didn’t know any better.

不过，鞋商们大多认为，男性买错鞋码，更多只是因为根本不懂怎么选码。

“The prevalence of sneakers and casual shoes distorted the sizing of dress shoes,” said Young Yoo, who owns Gentlemen’s Footwear in San Diego. “Men were measured once like 10 years ago and then they get fixated on that number.” That number might work for sneakers, which have pliable padding all around. In Mr. Yoo’s experience, a man’s sneaker size is nearly always larger: If a customer is a 10 in Nike, he’ll more likely be a 9.5 in some American-made Alden dress shoes.

圣地亚哥绅士鞋履店的店主柳荣（音）说：“运动鞋和休闲鞋的普及把正装鞋的尺码体系彻底打乱了。男人可能在10年前量过一次脚，就死死认准那个数字了。”那个鞋码或许适合运动鞋，毕竟运动鞋四周都有柔软的填充物。根据柳荣的经验，男性的运动鞋码几乎总是偏大：如果一个顾客穿耐克是10码，他穿美国本土品牌奥尔登的正装鞋时，大概率是9.5码。

It’s expected, Mr. Yoo said, for there to be some open space in a shoe, but the gaps visible in photos of the cabinet members were “ridiculously too much,” he said.

柳荣说，鞋子里留一点空隙是正常的，但内阁成员照片里可见的空隙“大得离谱，”他说。

Steven Taffel, the owner of Leffot, a high-end men’s shoe store in Manhattan, said that a fresh-from-the-box leather dress shoe shouldn’t squeeze, but it should “hug the foot.” Shoes, after all, are not static objects. “Your body weight gradually presses into the footbed, and leather soles become more flexible over time,” Mr. Taffel said.

曼哈顿高端男鞋店Leffot的店主史蒂文·塔菲尔说，全新的皮质正装鞋不能挤脚，但必须“贴合脚部”。毕竟鞋子不是一成不变的。“你的体重会慢慢压进鞋床，皮质鞋底穿久了也会更合脚，”塔菲尔说。

There is, he said, one relevant rule to heed: “If you can stick a finger into the heel of your shoe, it’s not just a poor fit, it’s not a very good look, either.”

他说，有一条相关的规矩必须遵守：“如果你能把一根手指塞进鞋后跟，那不光是严重不合脚，看着也非常不得体。”

“I do believe I’ll be having the honor of taking Cuba,” President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.

“我确信我将有幸拿下古巴，”总统周一在椭圆形办公室对媒体表示。

“Taking Cuba in some form, yeah,” he added when a reporter asked for clarification. “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth.”

“以某种形式拿下古巴，没错，”当一名记者要求他澄清时，他补充道。“拿下古巴。我的意思是，不管我是解放它，还是拿下它——我觉得我对它怎么做都可以，如果你想听实话的话。”

Even by Mr. Trump’s precedent-shattering standards for speaking his mind as the U.S. president, his comments were a stunning insight into his perceptions of his power and its lack of limits.

即便以特朗普作为美国总统打破先例、口无遮拦的标准来衡量，这番话依然令人震惊，清楚地展现了他对自身权力的认知以及这种权力似乎没有边界的看法。

There have been 13 U.S. presidents since Fidel Castro took power in Cuba, all with their own complicated and often contentious relationship with the Communist-ruled island. But none has so publicly pondered seizing control of the nation, until now. And after Mr. Trump’s military attacks in Venezuela and Iran this year, his comments may not simply be off-the-cuff musings.

自卡斯特罗在古巴掌权以来，美国已经历了13任总统，他们与这个由共产党统治的岛国之间的关系，各有各的复杂，且常常充满争议。但在此之前，还没有哪位总统如此公开地考虑夺取对该国的控制权。而且，在特朗普今年对委内瑞拉和伊朗发动军事打击之后，他的言论可能并非随口之言。

Instead, the remarks seem to suggest that Mr. Trump is pushing toward a third consecutive attempt to behead a foreign government, perhaps before the year finishes its first quarter.

相反，这些言论似乎表明，特朗普正推动接连第三次尝试对一个外国政府进行斩首行动，也许在今年第一季度结束之前。

“I am holding Cuba,” he said on Sunday aboard Air Force One, adding, “We will pretty soon make a deal or do whatever we have to do.” But he also made the sequencing clear: “We’re going to do Iran before Cuba.”

“我正在控制古巴，”他周日在“空军一号”上表示，并补充道，“我们很快会达成协议，或者做我们必须做的任何事情。”但他也明确了顺序：“先解决伊朗，再看古巴。”

In reality, the Trump administration is already engaging on both. Since January, the United States has established what amounts to an oil blockade on Cuba, threatening other countries if they provide oil to the island and even taking military action. Last month, a U.S. Coast Guard vessel intercepted a tanker full of crude oil from Colombia en route to Cuba.

事实上，特朗普政府已经在同时对付这两个国家了。自1月以来，美国已经对古巴实施了事实上的石油封锁，威胁其他国家不要向古巴提供石油，甚至采取了军事行动。上月，一艘美国海岸警卫队船只拦截了一艘满载原油、从哥伦比亚驶往古巴的油轮。

As a result, Cuba has not received any significant oil or fuel shipments since Jan. 9, creating a rapidly escalating crisis on the island. Gasoline sold on the black market has soared to about $35 a gallon and the electricity is failing almost every day, including a nationwide blackout on Monday. Surgeries are being delayed, medicine is running out, and food insecurity is increasing.

其结果是，自1月9日以来，古巴没有再收到任何大规模的石油或燃料供应，导致岛内危机迅速升级。黑市上的汽油价格已飙升至每加仑约35美元，几乎每天都会停电，周一甚至出现了一次全国性停电。手术被迫推迟，药品日益短缺，粮食不安全问题也在加剧。

That has backed Cuba’s leadership into a corner.

这已将古巴领导层逼入绝境。

“我确信我将有幸拿下古巴，”总统周一在椭圆形办公室对媒体表示。

President Miguel Díaz-Canel delivered a national address last week that acknowledged for the first time that Cuba was talking to the United States and would soon begin opening its economy.

古巴国家主席迪亚斯-卡内尔上周发表全国讲话，首次承认古巴正在与美国谈判，并将很快开放经济。

At the same time, the Trump administration was making clear to Cuba that Mr. Díaz-Canel must go, The Times reported on Monday. So far, the White House is not pushing for action against the Castro family, which remains in power behind the scenes. That is in line with the Trump administration’s preference for regime compliance, versus regime change, as seen in Venezuela.

与此同时，《纽约时报》周一报道称，特朗普政府也向古巴明确表示，迪亚斯-卡内尔必须下台。到目前为止，白宫尚未推动针对卡斯特罗家族的行动，该家族仍在幕后掌握权力。这与特朗普政府在委内瑞拉问题上的做法一致，即更倾向于推动政权服从，而非直接更替政权。

Russia has signaled it is prepared to back Cuba, its longtime ally, if necessary. A Kremlin spokesman said on Tuesday that Russian and Cuban officials were in close contact about the crisis.

俄罗斯已表示，如有必要，准备支持其长期盟友古巴。克里姆林宫发言人周二表示，俄古官员正就当前危机保持密切沟通。

On Monday night, Cuba’s economic czar, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, announced a series of changes to allow Cubans abroad to invest, bank and do business in Cuba, a potentially major shift in policy that the Cuban diaspora has long been seeking.

周一晚间，古巴经济主管佩雷斯-奥利瓦宣布了一系列改革措施，允许海外古巴人回国投资、办理银行业务和经商，这可能是一次重大的政策转向，也是古巴侨民长期以来的诉求。

In one sign of the pressure that Cuba is under to make such changes, Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga made the announcement over the radio. He had been scheduled to speak on television, but the power grid — which runs largely on oil — was still out. By 7 a.m. local time on Tuesday, the Cuban government said nearly 70 percent of Havana, the capital, was still without power.

从佩雷斯-奥利瓦通过广播宣布这一消息可见古巴在推动此类改革方面所面临的压力。他原定在电视上讲话，但主要依靠石油发电的电网当时仍处于瘫痪状态。截至当地时间周二早上7点，古巴政府表示，首都哈瓦那近70%的地区仍未恢复供电。

The potential of an economic reopening of Cuba is not lost on Mr. Trump. A real estate mogul with a long interest in South Florida and the Caribbean, Mr. Trump has long coveted the island.

对于古巴经济重新开放的潜力，特朗普自然看在眼里。作为一名长期关注南佛罗里达和加勒比地区的房地产大亨，特朗普一直对这个岛屿垂涎不已。

周一的哈瓦那，古巴当天发生大范围停电。

In 1998, a company he controlled secretly hired consultants to visit Cuba to explore its potential, a trip that might have violated the U.S. embargo on Cuba, according to a 2016 investigation by Newsweek. In 2011 and 2012, Trump Organization executives visited Cuba scouting for a golf course, Bloomberg reported in 2016.

根据《新闻周刊》2016年的一篇调查报道，1998年，特朗普控制的一家公司曾秘密聘请顾问前往古巴考察其潜力，这一行程可能违反了美国对古巴的禁运政策。彭博新闻社在2016年报道，2011年和2012年，特朗普集团的高管也曾前往古巴考察建设一座高尔夫球场的可能性。

While on the campaign trail in 2016, Mr. Trump repeatedly said he would like to do business there. “Cuba would be a good opportunity for investment,” he told a Miami news station that year. “I think probably the time’s not right.”

2016年竞选期间，特朗普多次表示愿意在古巴做生意。“就投资来说，古巴会是个好机会，”那一年他对迈阿密一家新闻电视台表示。“但我觉得时机可能还不成熟。”

Now he is suggesting the timing might be near. “They’re talking to us. It’s a failed nation. They have no money. They have no oil. They have no nothing,” he said in the Oval Office on Monday.

如今，他在暗示时机可能已近。“他们正在与我们谈判。那是个失败的国家。他们没有钱，他们没有石油，他们什么都没有，”他周一在椭圆形办公室表示。

Then he had another thought. “They have nice land. They have nice landscape,” he said, adding, “I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it’s a beautiful island, great weather.”

随后他又补充道：“他们有很好的土地，风景也很不错，”他还说，“我觉得古巴，就其本身而言，旅游业和其他方面，是一个美丽的岛屿，气候也很好。”

But then he revealed the geographical and meteorological limits to his knowledge. “They’re not in a hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know?” he said. That, of course, is like saying it doesn’t snow in Buffalo.

但随后他也暴露了自己在地理和气象方面的知识局限。“他们不在飓风带，这倒是挺不错的，对吧？”他说。当然，这就好比说水牛城不下雪一样。

Mr. Trump, however, already seemed to be thinking in the context of Cuba as American property: “They won’t be asking us for money for hurricanes every week.”

不过，特朗普似乎已经在把古巴当作美国的财产来考虑了：“他们不会每周都因为飓风向我们要钱。”

In the span of a month, an artificial intelligence assistant called OpenClaw has come to embody both China’s excitement and its anxiety about what A.I. can do.

短短一个月内，一款名为OpenClaw的人工智能助手既体现出中国社会对人工智能潜力的兴奋，也折射出人们对它的焦虑。

Long lines stretched across Shenzhen, China’s technology hub, as people sought help from engineers to install OpenClaw. Some local governments started offering subsidies, free computing and discounted office rent to companies that use OpenClaw to build new services. Share prices of Chinese tech companies surged as industry leaders and start-ups scrambled to offer the tool on their platforms.

在中国科技中心深圳，人们排起长队，请工程师帮忙安装OpenClaw。部分地方政府开始为使用OpenClaw开发新服务的企业提供补贴、免费算力与优惠的办公室租金。随着行业巨头与初创企业争相在平台上推出这款工具，中国科技公司股价大幅上涨。

Then, almost as quickly, the tide turned. The Chinese government warned that OpenClaw carried serious security risks. Seeking to capitalize on the software’s success, Chinese tech companies rushed to launch copycat versions of the tool.

然而，风向几乎同样迅速地发生了逆转。中国政府警告称，OpenClaw存在严重安全风险。而希望借这款软件走红获利的中国科技公司纷纷推出模仿版本。

OpenClaw’s turbulent rise — and broader interest in tools like it, known as A.I. agents — underscores how the rush into artificial intelligence is reshaping China’s tech industry. Beijing has spent billions trying to turn the country into an A.I. superpower and has identified the technology as a critical driver of economic growth.

OpenClaw跌宕起伏的崛起过程，以及市场对这类被称为AI智能体工具的广泛热情，凸显出人工智能热潮正在如何重塑中国科技行业。中国政府已投入数千亿资金，力争将本国打造为人工智能强国，并将这项技术列为经济增长的关键引擎。

OpenClaw is a freely shared tool that functions as a virtual assistant, helping users conduct research, send texts or emails, and manage their calendars. Installed directly on a user’s computer, the A.I. agent can carry out tasks on its own, such as reading and responding to messages on apps like WhatsApp or iMessage, after an initial prompt by the user. Unlike most chatbots that rely on a single company’s A.I. model, OpenClaw can run on a variety of models.

OpenClaw是一款免费开源工具，功能类似虚拟助手，可帮助用户进行信息检索、发送短信或电子邮件，管理日程。这款AI智能体直接安装在用户电脑上，在用户初步指令后，可自主执行任务，比如读取并回复WhatsApp、iMessage等应用中的消息。与大多数依赖单一公司人工智能模型的聊天机器人不同，OpenClaw可在多种模型上运行。

OpenClaw, which was released four months ago, has already vaulted into this month’s top 10 most popular projects on GitHub, an online global community for coders. It has spurred excitement about the potential of agents to use artificial intelligence to help people become more efficient in their everyday lives.

四个月前发布的OpenClaw已跻身全球开发者在线社区GitHub本月最受欢迎十大项目。它让人们对智能体利用人工智能提升日常生活效率的潜力充满期待。

This month, Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia, the American chip-making giant, added to the hype, telling an investor conference that OpenClaw was “probably the single most important release of software, you know, probably ever.”

本月，美国芯片巨头英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋更是为这股热潮推波助澜，他在一场投资者大会上称，OpenClaw“或许堪称有史以来最重要的软件发布”。

Tech companies are vying to capitalize on the excitement by launching their own agent and assistant tools. Nvidia said it planned to launch an A.I. agent platform called NemoClaw. Peter Steinberger, the engineer who developed OpenClaw, said last month that he was joining OpenAI to work on agents.

科技公司争相借势推出自家智能体与助手工具。英伟达宣布计划推出名为NemoClaw的AI智能体平台。开发出OpenClaw的工程师彼得·斯坦伯格上月表示，他已加入OpenAI，专注智能体研发。

The Chinese tech industry has also jumped on the bandwagon. Alibaba and Tencent, two of China’s biggest technology companies, said they were developing their own alternative A.I. agents.

中国科技行业也迅速跟风。中国两大科技巨头阿里巴巴与腾讯均表示，正在开发自家的AI智能体替代产品。

稀宇是一家于今年1月在香港上市的初创公司，是投资者预期将受益于OpenClaw等工具更广泛应用的企业之一。

Companies that build A.I. models and the hardware that powers them stand to gain financially from widespread use of A.I. agents, which can run continuously on a user’s device and frequently communicate with other models that charge based on usage.

打造人工智能模型及支撑其运行硬件的公司有望从AI智能体的广泛应用中获得经济收益——这类工具可在用户设备上持续运行，并频繁与其他按使用量计费的模型进行交互。

Shares of Chinese tech companies offering OpenClaw-like products have risen on investor optimism about A.I. agents, including Minimax and Zhipu, two start-ups that went public in Hong Kong this year and have released tools called MaxClaw and AutoClaw.

因投资者对AI智能体持乐观预期，推出类OpenClaw产品的中国科技公司股价上涨，其中包括今年在香港上市的两家初创公司稀宇和智谱，它们分别发布了名为MaxClaw与AutoClaw的工具。

In China, the phrase “raising a lobster,” a reference to OpenClaw’s logo, has spread online. While the government has raised concerns, the technology has been greeted by the public with more optimism than anxiety.

在中国，源自OpenClaw标志的“养龙虾”一词在网络上流传。尽管政府表达了担忧，但公众对这项技术的态度更多是乐观，而非焦虑。

“Most people view technology as a convenience, so when something new comes out, they are more willing to try it,” said Wendy Chang, a senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a think tank.

德国墨卡托中国研究所高级分析师张文怡表示：“大多数人将技术视为一种便利，所以新事物出现时，他们更愿意尝试。”

But the same trait that makes OpenClaw useful, its versatility, also creates significant security risks.

然而，让OpenClaw如此实用的多功能特性会带来重大安全风险。

In recent weeks, Chinese regulators have repeatedly warned about security vulnerabilities linked to OpenClaw, including potential leaks of personal information and errors in financial transactions.

近几周，中国监管部门多次就OpenClaw相关安全漏洞发出警告，包括可能泄露个人信息及金融交易出错。

One person in China left OpenClaw running with access to his credit card, only to find the agent had run up the card to its limit, according to Chinese media reports.

据中国媒体报道，国内有用户在允许OpenClaw连接信用卡后任其运行，结果发现该智能体把信用卡额度刷爆。

OpenClaw是一款免费共享的工具，作为虚拟助手，它可以帮助用户进行研究、发送短信或电子邮件，并管理日程。

Multiple databases that track potential security breaches associated with the tool have sprung up online.

多个追踪该工具相关安全漏洞的数据库已在网上出现。

For some Chinese entrepreneurs, the idea that an A.I. system could be directed to act on its own has spawned a new vision of the internet where A.I. agents — and not human users — perform tasks such as buying things, sending messages and connecting on social networks.

对一些中国创业者而言，人工智能系统能够自主执行指令的特性催生了一种全新的互联网愿景：未来不是由人类用户，而是由人工智能体完成购物、发送消息、社交网络互动等任务。

Felix Tao, a former Facebook and Alibaba employee and co-founder of Mindverse, a start-up in Hangzhou, launched a software-building competition last month for engineers to develop applications related to A.I. agents. Hundreds of developers signed up and created more than 150 apps, Mr. Tao said. This month, he plans to co-host another event with Zhihu, a Chinese chat forum similar to Quora.

曾任职于Facebook和阿里巴巴的陶芳波是杭州初创公司心识宇宙联合创始人。他上月发起了一场软件开发竞赛，鼓励工程师开发与AI智能体相关的应用。陶芳波表示，数百名开发者报名参赛，打造了超过150款应用。本月，他计划与类似Quora的中文问答社区知乎联合主办另一场活动。

Mr. Tao said his company had been building a product called Second Me that would use A.I. to help people manage their lives. It can send daily emails to colleagues, for example, or regular text messages to check in with relatives.

陶芳波称，其公司正在开发一款名为Second Me的产品，利用人工智能帮助人们管理生活。例如，它可以给同事发送每日邮件，或定期发短信问候亲人。

Part of the reason people have been able to build with OpenClaw so quickly is that it is open source and freely available online. Chinese developers have embraced open-source A.I. tools, whose code is publicly available, enabling anyone to examine, modify or build new programs from it.

人们能够如此快速地基于OpenClaw开发应用，部分原因在于它是开源的，可在网上免费获取。中国开发者积极接受开源人工智能工具——其代码公开，任何人都可以查看、修改或基于其开发新程序。

In the year since the Chinese start-up DeepSeek stunned the tech world by announcing a new A.I. system that spends far less on computer chips than foreign rivals, Chinese companies have released a major share of the world’s top-performing open-source A.I. systems.

自中国初创公司深度求索宣布推出芯片成本远低于国外竞品的全新人工智能系统、震惊科技界以来，这一年间，中国企业发布的全球顶尖开源人工系统已占据相当大的比例。

While leading American A.I. companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic keep their systems closed, Chinese firms have increasingly released details of their technologies publicly.

OpenAI、Anthropic等美国头部人工智能公司对自身技术保密，与此同时，中国企业却越来越多地公开技术细节。

Chinese A.I. models offer a far cheaper option for engineers looking to experiment with tools like OpenClaw, helping explain why so many Chinese A.I. companies have released similar products in recent weeks, said Graham Webster, a professor at Stanford who focuses on geopolitics and technology.

斯坦福大学研究地缘政治与科技的教授格雷厄姆·韦伯斯特表示，对希望尝试OpenClaw这类工具的工程师来说，中国人工智能模型是成本低得多的选择，这也解释了为何近几周来有如此多的中国人工智能公司推出同类产品。

Chinese regulators will also have to weigh the benefits these tools will bring to the country’s A.I. industry, because of the privacy and security risks they pose, Mr. Webster said.

韦伯斯特称，考虑到隐私与安全风险，中国监管机构也必须权衡这些工具给本国人工智能产业带来的利弊。

“It could be a moment that starts to cause the Chinese government to think about the downsides of widely available open models,” Mr. Webster said.

“这可能会成为一个转折点，让中国政府开始思考广泛可用的开源模型的负面影响，”韦伯斯特说。

Europe wants President Trump to end his war in Iran as fast as possible.

欧洲希望特朗普总统尽快结束他在伊朗的战争。

Mr. Trump wants Europe’s help relieving the only real pressure point that could force him to do that.

特朗普则希望欧洲帮忙缓解唯一能真正迫使他这么做的压力点。

That pressure point is effectively an oil blockade by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump has called on Europe to send ships and other military forces to help clear the channel.

这个压力点实际上就是伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡实施的石油封锁。特朗普呼吁欧洲派遣舰船和其他军事力量，帮助打通这条通道。

European officials have a long list of reasons, spoken and unspoken, for refusing.

欧洲官员有一长串理由来拒绝，其中有说出口的，也有没说出口的。

It looks something like this.

大致如下。

1. They never wanted this war and don’t want a part of it.

1. 他们从来就不想要这场战争，也不想参与其中。

The United States and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran late last month without consulting allies in Europe or elsewhere. There was no effort to assemble any sort of “coalition of the willing” or to make an international case for war, as the Bush administration did two decades ago with Iraq.

美国和以色列在上月底对伊朗发动首次打击时，并没有征求欧洲或其他地方盟友的意见。没有努力组建任何“自愿联盟”，也没有像二十年前布什政府那样，就伊拉克战争争取国际支持。

For the first few weeks of the war, all Mr. Trump seemed to want from Europe was the use of military bases to launch attacks. Germany agreed immediately. Britain did eventually, though not to the degree Mr. Trump wanted. Spain said no.

在战争最初几周，特朗普似乎只想从欧洲那里借用军事基地来发动攻击。德国立即同意了。英国最终也同意了，尽管没有达到特朗普想要的程度。西班牙则拒绝了。

周二，一架美国轰炸机在英格兰南部的皇家空军费尔福德基地降落。

But as Iran’s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring, Mr. Trump asked for more help from Europe — without offering operational input or a timeline for ending hostilities, international legal cover or anything else that Europe might want.

但随着伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的攻击导致油价飙升，特朗普开始向欧洲要求更多帮助——却没有提供作战行动的参与意见、结束敌对行动的时间表、国际法上的依据，或者欧洲可能想要的任何其他东西。

“The United States and Israel did not consult us before this war. There was never a joint decision regarding Iran,” Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said on Monday. “Therefore, the question of how Germany will contribute militarily does not arise. We will not.”

“美国和以色列在这场战争前没有征求我们的意见。从未就伊朗问题做出过任何联合决定，”德国总理弗里德里希·默茨周一表示。“因此，德国是否在军事上参与的问题根本无从谈起。我们不会参与。”

2. It’s not NATO’s job.

2. 这不是北约的职责。

Mr. Trump has invoked the trans-Atlantic security alliance, which requires its members to aid America if it is attacked, and scolded NATO members in Europe for not answering his call. “For 40 years, we’re protecting you, and you don’t want to get involved,” Mr. Trump said on Monday.

特朗普援引了这个跨大西洋安全联盟——该联盟要求成员国在美国遭受攻击时给予援助——并斥责欧洲北约成员国没有响应他的号召。“40年来，我们一直在保护你们，你们却不想卷进来，”特朗普周一说。

To which European officials reply: That’s not how NATO works.

对此，欧洲官员的回应是：北约不是这么用的。

The alliance does not traditionally involve itself in the Middle East or in pre-emptive strikes by its members on their enemies. Its so-called Article 5 obligations bind countries to defend one another in case of attack, and they have only been invoked once: after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist strikes in the United States.

这个联盟传统上不介入中东事务，也不参与其成员国对敌人的先发制人打击。其所谓的第五条义务要求各国在遭受攻击时相互防御，而这只被援引过一次：2001年9月11日美国遭受恐怖袭击之后。

Mr. Merz stressed on Monday that NATO was a “defensive alliance.” Mark Rutte, the alliance’s secretary general and an ally of Mr. Trump’s, told the Reuters news agency shortly after the war began: “Clearly, NATO is not itself involved here. NATO allies are providing key enabling support.”

默茨周一强调，北约是一个“防御性联盟”。北约秘书长、特朗普的盟友马克·吕特在战争开始后不久对路透社表示：“显然，北约本身并未卷入其中。北约盟国正在提供关键的支持性援助。”

3. They don’t think it will work …

3. 他们认为这行不通……

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is so precarious because even a single armed Iranian speedboat can take out an oil tanker. The U.S. Navy has not been able to defeat that threat on its own, and some European leaders said this week that they don’t know how their navies would tip the scales.

霍尔木兹海峡的航运之所以如此脆弱，是因为哪怕一艘伊朗武装快艇就能摧毁一艘油轮。美国海军至今未能依靠自己的力量击败这一威胁，一些欧洲领导人本周表示，他们不知道自家海军如何能扭转局面。

4. … and if it did, it could prolong the war.

4. ……而且即便行得通，也可能延长战争。

The Iran-induced surge in global oil prices is raising costs for drivers and other consumers across Europe and the United States. European leaders are desperate to bring them down. They know Mr. Trump is, too.

伊朗引发的全球油价飙升正在提高欧洲和美国各地司机及其他消费者的成本。欧洲领导人迫切希望把油价降下来。他们知道特朗普也同样迫切。

Privately, top European officials say the only things that ever really seem to induce Mr. Trump to change his mind on an issue are financial markets and American public opinion. A clogged Strait of Hormuz influences both. Mr. Trump does not want to enter midterm elections with gas prices high and American voters blaming his war for them.

一些欧洲高层官员私下表示，似乎只有金融市场和美国公众舆论这两样东西，才能真正让特朗普在某个问题上改变主意。霍尔木兹海峡被堵塞会同时影响到这两者。特朗普不希望带着高油价进入中期选举，让美国选民把责任归咎于他的战争。

That calculation might be European leaders’ best leverage to persuade Mr. Trump to wrap up the war before it sprawls into their nightmare scenario: an economically devastated, politically unstable Iran that sends millions of migrants fleeing the Middle East toward Europe.

这种算计或许是欧洲领导人说服特朗普尽快结束战争的最好筹码，以免战争演变成他们的噩梦场景：一个经济崩溃、政治不稳的伊朗，导致数百万难民从中东涌向欧洲。

The war in Iran is threatening a fragile détente between China and the United States, with the two powers now moving to postpone a much anticipated summit meeting after President Trump demanded that China send warships to the Gulf.

伊朗战事正威胁着中美之间本就脆弱的缓和关系。在特朗普总统要求中国向海湾派遣军舰后，两国正着手推迟一场备受期待的峰会。

Mr. Trump on Monday said that he had requested that his visit to Beijing at the end of the month be postponed because of the war. Just a day earlier, he threatened to delay the meeting if China did not contribute warships to end Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is squeezing oil markets.

特朗普周一表示，因战事原因，他已要求推迟原定本月底对北京的访问。就在一天前，他还威胁称，若中国不派遣军舰以解除伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的事实上的封锁，他将推迟会晤——这一封锁正严重冲击全球石油市场。

“I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here,” Mr. Trump said of meeting China’s leader, Xi Jinping. “I’m looking forward to being with him. We have a very good relationship.”

谈及与中国国家主席习近平的会晤，特朗普称：“我很想去，但因为战事，我想留在这里。我期待和他会面，我们关系非常好。”

In a sign the relationship may not be as warm as Mr. Trump says, Chinese officials have reacted coolly to the president’s call for nations to escort merchant vessels through the strait. When asked on Monday about the president’s proposal, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said only that his country called on “all parties to immediately cease military operations.”

不过，中国官方对特朗普呼吁各国为商船护航穿越海峡的提议反应冷淡，这表明两国关系可能并不像特朗普所说的那样融洽。周一被问及总统的这一提议时，中国外交部发言人林剑仅表示，中方呼吁“各方立即停止军事行动”。

Outside of official circles, Mr. Trump’s demand has been met with outright ridicule in China.

在官方层面之外，特朗普的要求在中国民间遭到了毫不掩饰的嘲讽。

One prominent Chinese blogger said the request was so absurd that the U.S. president might as well as invite Iranian warships to escort U.S. vessels. The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, on Sunday asked, “Is this really about ‘sharing responsibility — or is it about sharing the risk of a war that Washington started and can’t finish?”

一位知名中国博主称，这一要求荒谬至极，特朗普还不如干脆邀请伊朗军舰为美国船只护航。中国共产党旗下小报《环球时报》周日质问道：“这真的是‘分担责任’？——还是要分担华盛顿挑动却无力收场的战争风险？”

Other Chinese news outlets, describing the lack of response by other nations, said Mr. Trump had received “a nose full of dust,” or a cold shoulder.

其他中国媒体在报道多国对此无回应时，称特朗普“碰了一鼻子灰”，也就是遭到了冷遇。

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平去年10月在韩国釜山会晤。

Beijing has little incentive to risk Chinese personnel and ships or undermine ties with Iran, its closest partner in the region. Iran has said it is only targeting vessels linked to the United States and its allies, and is allowing ships carrying oil to China to cross the strait.

北京几乎没有动力让中国人员和船只涉险，也不愿破坏与它在该地区最亲密伙伴伊朗之间的关系。伊朗已表示，仅针对与美国及其盟友有关的船只，允许载有运往中国石油的船只通过海峡。

“This is not a difficult question to answer. Regardless of whether Trump comes or not, China will absolutely not send warships to participate in an escort operation,” said Ding Long from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.

上海外国语大学中东研究所的丁隆表示：“这个问题不难回答。无论特朗普来不来，中国绝对不会派军舰参与护航行动。”

Dr. Ding said that sending Chinese naval ships would be “tantamount to entering the war and joining the conflict against Iran” — something China is unwilling to do.

丁隆称，派遣中国海军舰艇“无异于参战，加入对抗伊朗的冲突”——这是中国不愿做的事。

For Mr. Xi, who is working to cement Beijing’s position as a superpower and global leader, contributing Chinese warships would mean submitting to U.S. leadership.

对正致力于巩固中国超级大国与全球领导者地位的习近平而言，派遣军舰意味着屈从于美国的领导。

“From Beijing’s perspective, this is an American war rather than China’s problem,” said Claus Soong, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies who focuses on China’s global strategy. Responding to Mr. Trump’s call to send naval forces would make it look as if “China is following his order,” he said.

德国墨卡托中国研究中心专注于中国全球战略的分析师宋高祖表示：“在北京看来，这是美国的战争，而非中国的问题。”他称，响应特朗普派遣海军的号召，会让外界觉得“中国在听命于他”。

But not responding at all may jeopardize a trade truce between China and the United States. Beijing has been counting on the summit to lower pressure on China as it tries to overhaul a slowing economy. Beijing wants Washington to reduce support for Taiwan, ease restrictions on technology exports, and extend a pause on tariffs struck last year after months of a bruising trade war.

但完全不回应则可能危及中美之间的贸易休战。中国正指望此次峰会能减轻中国面临的压力，以便其振兴放缓的经济，中国希望华盛顿减少对台支持、放宽技术出口限制，并延长去年历经数月激烈贸易战后达成的关税暂停协议。

And while China has invested in renewables and electric vehicles to reduce reliance on oil and other foreign energy sources — as well as stockpiling oil before the U.S. and Israel opened their war on Iran — the country is still affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped through the waterway.

尽管中国已投资可再生能源与电动汽车以减少对石油等外国能源的依赖，并在美以对伊朗开战前储备了石油，但霍尔木兹海峡的封锁仍对中国造成影响。中国高达40%的石油进口需经该水道运输。

上周，一艘原油油轮停泊在中国青岛的港口。

Shipping data since the beginning of the war shows that few Chinese vessels are risking the journey, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. As of Tuesday, at least nine Chinese carriers appeared to be stuck in the Gulf, according to Marine Traffic, a maritime data platform.

美国战略与国际研究中心的分析显示，战事爆发以来的航运数据表明，鲜有中国船只冒险通行。海事数据平台“船舶交通”数据显示，截至周二，至少有九艘中国货轮似乎滞留在海湾地区。

“Everyone benefits from the reopening of the strait,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who said that Beijing may try to mediate or quietly pressure Iran to reopen the strait.

华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示：“海峡重开对各方都有利。”她认为，北京或许会尝试从中斡旋，或私下向伊朗施压以重开海峡。

Doing more to push for the reopening would help Beijing build good will with Washington before the summit, burnish its image as a responsible great power and help China’s partners in the Gulf, she said.

她称，在峰会前更积极推动海峡重开，有助于北京向华盛顿释放善意，塑造负责任大国形象，也能惠及中国在海湾地区的伙伴。

“China just can’t push Iran with one-sided pressure,” Dr. Sun said, adding that Beijing would likely also privately urge the United States and Israel to declare a cease-fire.

孙韵表示：“中国不能仅靠单方面施压来推动伊朗。”她补充说，北京可能还会私下敦促美国和以色列宣布停火。

A delay of the summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi could be in China’s interests, too. If the war drags on, added pressure on Washington could mean more leverage for China.

推迟特朗普与习近平的峰会对中国或许也有利。若战事持续，华盛顿面临的压力增加，可能意味着中国将拥有更多筹码。

“Both Beijing and Washington have expectations for the summit, but it may be that Trump needs the meeting more as a way to demonstrate that he can make a deal,” Mr. Soong said.

宋高祖称：“中美双方都对这场峰会抱有期待，但或许特朗普更需要这场会晤，以此证明他有能力达成协议。”

Digging deep into a field in northwestern China, archaeologists recently uncovered chariot tracks, plumbing and the remnants of an elaborate city gate dating back more than 3,000 years — all traces of an early Chinese dynasty that has been celebrated by Confucian scholars, and also by the Communist Party, as a model of political and social harmony.

考古学家最近在中国西北的一片田地里进行考古发掘时，发现了战车车辙、管道设施以及一座3000多年前建造的精巧城门的遗迹——这些都是一个早期中国朝代留下的痕迹，该朝代长期以来一直被儒家学者以及共产党赞誉为政治与社会和谐的典范。

The discoveries suggest that the area that is now farmland west of the city of Xi’an, in Shaanxi Province, is part of the long-vanished capital of the Western Zhou, a dynasty exalted throughout Chinese history as the acme of good governance.

这些发现表明，位于今天陕西省西安市以西的一片农田，正是早已消失的西周都城的一部分。西周在中国历史上一直被推崇为善治的巅峰。

The digging, part of decades-long excavation work in the area, has also shed new light on a bigger question: If the ancient dynasty was so perfect, why did it collapse in chaos, unable to contain external and internal threats? It lasted nearly 300 years but still fell apart in 771 B.C. under pressure from “barbarian” invaders and estranged former allies.

这项发掘是当地持续数十年的考古工作的一部分，也为一个更大的问题提供了新的线索：如果这个古代王朝如此完美，为什么最终却在混乱中崩溃，既无法抵御外部威胁，也无法化解内部危机？它延续了近300年，却仍在公元前771年面对“蛮族”入侵者和关系疏远的前盟友的压力时瓦解了。

Why seemingly robust political systems crumble has been a central preoccupation of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, since the 1991 downfall of the Soviet Union. An avid fan of ancient history and archaeology, he visited a museum in Baoji, a city in Shaanxi near the excavation site, in 2024 and inspected ancient bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty, including one inscribed with “zhongguo,” meaning “middle kingdom,” the earliest known written record of China’s name.

自1991年苏联解体以来，看似稳固的政治体系为何会崩塌一直是中国最高领导人习近平关注的核心问题之一。习近平对于古代历史和考古研究有着浓厚的兴趣，2024年他曾到陕西宝鸡的一座博物馆参观，看了西周时期的青铜器，其中一件刻有“中国”（“中央之国”之意）字样的器物，是目前已知最早以文字形式出现“中国”字样的记录。

陕西周原博物馆展出的西周青铜器，该馆位于考古发掘地点附近。

The traditional explanation for the downfall of the Western Zhou, enshrined in the first century B.C. by Sima Qian, the father of Chinese history, is that the dynasty unraveled because of a beautiful woman who bewitched and led astray its ruler, King You.

关于西周灭亡的传统解释来自公元前1世纪的史学家、被称为中国史学之父司马迁所记载的说法：王朝之所以走向崩溃，是因为一位美貌女子蛊惑并带坏了统治者周幽王。

Recent archaeological and other evidence, however, has debunked this reading of dynastic decline as a morality play. Instead, the new findings highlight the frailties of a rigidly hierarchical political system grown brittle over time that could not withstand disruptions caused by climate change and internal division.

然而，近年来的考古发现和其他证据已经否定了这种把王朝衰亡解释为道德故事的说法。相反，新的研究凸显出：一个等级森严的政治体系随着时间推移变得僵化脆弱，最终难以承受气候变化和内部分裂带来的冲击。

Chong Jianrong, the director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, who has been hunting traces of Western Zhou’s rise and fall for decades, said the woman often blamed for the dynasty’s demise — a concubine named Bao Si — was “just a scapegoat” to explain the ruin of a supposedly golden age.

陕西省考古研究院院长种建荣几十年来一直在追寻西周兴衰的遗迹。他表示，那位常被指责导致王朝覆灭的女子——名叫褒姒的妃子——不过是用来解释一个所谓黄金时代覆灭的“替罪羊”。

Edward L. Shaughnessy, a leading American authority on ancient China, said Bao Si’s role in the end of the dynasty “is of course just a fairy tale,” possibly concocted as part of “some sort of factional strife at the Zhou court.”

美国研究中国上古史的权威学者夏含夷(Edward L. Shaughnessy)表示，褒姒在王朝终结中的作用“当然只是一个神话传说”，可能是为配合“周朝宫廷的某种派系斗争”而编造的。

Hailed by Confucius and his followers as a model undone by lust, the dynasty produced many of the core concepts of Chinese civilization, like the “mandate of heaven,” the idea that a ruler holds power because of good governance and loses it through immoral misbehavior.

西周被孔子及其追随者称为红颜误国的典型，这个王朝产生了中国文明许多核心概念，比如“天命”思想——统治者因治国贤明而掌权，也会因失德而失权。

But, Mr. Chong said of the fall of Western Zhou, “this is not about a beautiful woman causing trouble.”

但种建荣谈到西周灭亡时说：“这并不是一个美人祸国的故事。”

A recent study led by Chinese scientists in Beijing has now provided what many historians see as a more plausible theory. Using evidence collected from stalagmites, it blamed rapid climate change. Drought and unusual cold caused by a sudden change in the climate 2,800 years ago — just before the collapse of Western Zhou — played a “critical role” in the dynasty’s demise, according to a study published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister publication to the British scientific journal Nature.

现在，北京的中国科学家主持的一项新研究提供了许多史学家认为更为可信的解释。该研究利用从石笋中收集的证据，将西周的灭亡归咎于气候的急剧变化。根据发表在英国科学期刊《自然》的姊妹刊《通讯-地球与环境》上的研究，2800年前——也就是西周灭亡前夕——气候突变引发的干旱和异常寒冷对该王朝的覆灭起到了“关键作用”。

A separate study based on the analysis of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, which provided a chronology of volcanic activity over two millenniums, found that 62 of 68 Chinese dynastic houses over that period fell after one or more volcanic eruptions — a major cause of short-term climatic shocks throughout history.

另一项基于对格陵兰岛和南极洲冰芯分析的研究建立了两千年火山活动的时间序列。结果发现，在这一时间段的68个中国王朝中，有62个是在一次或多次火山喷发之后灭亡的，而火山喷发在历史上往往是短期气候冲击的重要原因

陕西省考古研究院党委书记、院长种建荣在西安的办公室。

Francis Ludlow, an associate professor of medieval environment history at Trinity College, Dublin, who carried out the research with Chinese and other scholars, said in a telephone interview that he had been surprised by the close correlation between volcanic activity and dynastic decline. “There were way too many eruptions just before collapse dates to be just random coincidences,” he said.

都柏林圣三一学院中世纪环境史副教授弗朗西斯·卢德洛与来自中国及其他国家的学者共同开展了这项研究。他在接受电话采访时表示，他对火山活动与王朝衰亡之间的紧密关联感到惊讶。“灭亡前夕发生的火山喷发多得离谱，绝不可能是随机巧合，”他说。

Professor Shaughnessy said he had long believed that climatic events before Western Zhou collapsed “probably contributed to the fall, but there were many other reasons for it as well.”

夏含夷表示，他一直认为西周灭亡之前的气候事件“可能促成了其灭亡，但此外也还存在其它诸多原因”。

Volcanoes spew out aerosol particles that cut sunlight and can play havoc with farming thousands of miles away. Whether an eruption “tips a dynasty over the edge,” however, depends heavily on the extent at the time of warfare and instability, Mr. Ludlow said.

火山喷发出的气溶胶粒子能够遮挡阳光，对数千公里外的农业生产造成严重影响。不过拉德洛表示，一场火山喷发“是否能导致一个王朝覆灭”，在很大程度上取决于当时的战争和国家不稳定程度。

“Our most interesting finding,” he said, “is not that volcanoes are implicated in dynastic change but that the impact of climatic shock depends on how stable a society was in the lead up to that shock.”

“我们最有趣的发现，”他说，“不是火山喷发导致了王朝更迭，而是在于，气候冲击的影响取决于社会在该冲击发生之前的稳定程度。”

Mr. Chong, the archaeology institute director, also said that Western Zhou’s own “internal and external contradictions” were key to its downfall.

考古研究院的种建荣也表示，西周自身的“内部和外部矛盾”是其衰亡的关键。

These included a steady weakening of the royal court’s control over regional rulers as ties of blood to the center were diluted by time, and also a growing conflict with rival “barbarian” powers to the northwest and southeast.

这些矛盾包括：随着与中央政权的血缘关系随时间推移而淡化，王庭对地方诸侯的控制逐渐减弱；以及与西北和东南方向的敌对“蛮夷”势力的冲突日益加剧。

For centuries, Chinese scholars have struggled to square the Western Zhou’s sudden collapse with the glowing praise heaped upon it by Confucius. “If the Western Zhou dynasty was so perfect an age of good politics and institutions as Confucius tended to suggest, then why had it to fall, and to give rise to a time of political disorder and moral decline?” asked Li Feng, a professor of early Chinese history at Columbia University, in a 2006 book.

几个世纪以来，中国学者一直难以将西周的突然灭亡与孔子对它的极力称赞联系起来。“如果西周真的像孔子说的那样，是一个政治制度和道德都完美无缺的时代，那它为什么还会灭亡，并导致随后的政治动乱和道德沦丧？”哥伦比亚大学早期中国历史教授李峰在2006年出版的一本书中问道。

Yan Yongqian, a young archaeologist who is part of a team now digging up what is believed to be a side gate to the Western Zhou capital, said the excavation work had revealed evidence of the dynasty’s highly stratified and sophisticated society, as well as its darker side, including human sacrifices.

年轻考古学家严镛谦（音）目前正在参与据信为西周都城侧门的遗址发掘工作，他说，考古发现证明西周王朝拥有层次高度分化且复杂精巧的社会，同时也让人们看到了它阴暗的一面，包括人祭的存在。

The collapse of the Western Zhou, Mr. Yan said, seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside against defenses weakened by internal discord. An earlier round of excavation uncovered the remains of burned ancient buildings, suggesting a violent end.

严镛谦说，西周的覆灭似乎发生得很迅速，内部分歧导致王朝防御能力减弱，外部的军事进攻加速了它的覆灭。早前的一轮挖掘发现了古代建筑的焦土遗迹，表明王朝有一个残酷的结局。

“The fall of this state was likely a very sudden event,” Mr. Yan said. Whether Bao Si, the beautiful consort, who, according to ancient legend, was conceived from dragon spittle, existed is unclear and even if she did, he added, “a single person cannot destroy a dynasty.”

“这个王国的覆灭很可能是非常突然的，”严镛谦说。关于美丽的妃子褒姒——传说她是由龙的唾液化生而成——是否真的存在还不清楚，他接着说，即使确有其人，“一个人也不能摧毁一个王朝。”

陕西考古研究院的研究人员严镛谦在他的城门遗址发掘现场。

Since Sima Qian wrote “Historical Records,” each new Chinese dynasty has traditionally commissioned an official history of its predecessor, enumerating supposed moral and other failings that led to its demise.

自从司马迁写下《史记》以来，中国的新王朝通常都会下令编撰前朝的官方史书，列举其所谓道德及其他方面的过失，称其导致了王朝的覆灭。

Though widely dismissed by modern scholars as fairy tales, stories about the Western Zhou king’s dynasty-destroying infatuation with Bao Si still sometimes crowd out other explanations. At a museum near the excavation site showcasing Western Zhou’s cultural achievements and its sudden demise, exhibits recount how the king grappled with natural disasters and other problems but lost power largely because of his wayward love life.

虽然现代学者普遍认为西周君主因迷恋褒姒而亡国的故事是神话，但有些时候，人们仍然想不出其他的解释。在考古现场附近的一家介绍西周文化成就及其突然覆灭的博物馆里，展览讲述了君主如何应对自然灾害和其他问题，但最终还是因为放纵情爱而失去权力的故事。

To entertain Bao Si, who was famous for her great but unsmiling beauty, the story goes, he lit beacon fires that were supposed to be used to summon help in times of emergency, a stunt that cost him his life and kingdom when a real attack came in 771 B.C.

传说中，为了博褒姒一笑，他点燃了只有在危急时刻才能用来召唤援军的烽火。这个把戏最终让他丢了性命和王国——前771年，外敌真的打了进来。

Whether such beacons even existed, however, is disputed and Mr. Yan, the archaeologist, said the story had probably been fabricated to demonize Bao Si and cover up the dynasty’s real problems.

然而，当时究竟有没有烽火台是存在争议的，考古学家严镛谦说，这个故事很可能是为了妖魔化褒姒，掩盖王朝真正的问题。

Mr. Chong, the Shaanxi province archaeology institute director, said: “When things go wrong you have to find someone to take responsibility,” and, in China’s patriarchal society, that person “is always a woman.” He added, “The real collapse of a society is caused by the system and its mechanisms.”

陕西省考古研究院院长种建荣说：“出问题的时候，你必须找到人来承担责任，”在中国以男性为中心的社会，这个人“总会是一个女人”。他接着说，“一个社会真正的崩溃是由制度及其机制造成的。”

President Trump raised the possibility of the United States “taking” Cuba on Monday, telling reporters at the White House, “I do believe I will be having the honor of taking Cuba.”

特朗普总统周一提及美国“拿下”古巴的可能性，他在白宫对记者表示：“我确信我会有幸拿下古巴。”

“Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it,” he said. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

“拿下古巴。我的意思是，不管是解放它，还是接管它。我觉得我想对它做什么都可以，”他说。“他们现在是一个非常虚弱的国家。”

The president’s words came on the same day as Cuba experienced a nationwide blackout, amid diminishing fuel supplies. On Monday evening, Cuban officials had also planned to announce that the country’s Communist government would open itself to foreign investment, including from the United States, Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, told NBC News.

总统发表此番言论的同一天，古巴因燃料供应告急，发生了全国性停电。古巴副总理奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加向NBC新闻透露，古巴官员原计划于周一晚间宣布，该国共产党政府将向包括美国在内的外资开放市场。

“Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants,” the deputy prime minister said in a clip of an interview posted by the network on Monday morning.

“古巴愿意与美国企业、旅居美国的古巴侨民及其后代建立顺畅的商业关系，”副总理在该新闻台周一早间发布的采访片段中表示。

It is unclear how widely Cuba intends to open its economy, or how the moves compare with those made a decade ago under President Barack Obama. But the scheduled announcement coincides with a severe humanitarian and energy crisis, with some experts saying the island could run out of fuel within weeks because of a de facto blockade by the Trump administration.

目前尚不清楚古巴计划将经济开放到何种程度，也不清楚这些举措与十年前奥巴马总统任内制定的政策相比有何异同。但此次原定的宣布，恰逢古巴陷入严重的人道主义与能源危机之际。有专家表示，由于特朗普政府实施的实质封锁，这个岛国可能在数周内耗尽燃料。

For the past three months, the United States has choked off Cuba’s access to foreign oil, blocking shipments from Venezuela and elsewhere. Frequent blackouts have followed — including the broad power outage on Monday — and hospitals have had to postpone some procedures, deepening a humanitarian crisis that has also involved food shortages and has led to rare protests on the island.

过去三个月，美国切断了古巴获取境外石油的渠道，拦截了来自委内瑞拉等国的石油运输。随后古巴频繁发生停电，周一的大范围断电也在其中；医院不得不推迟部分手术，本就因食品短缺加剧的人道主义危机进一步恶化，还引发了古巴国内罕见的抗议活动。

Officials had planned to announce the economic changes on an evening television program, Mesa Redonda, or Round Table. The program was not broadcast at the scheduled hour. It was not immediately clear if that was the result of power outages.

古巴官员原计划在晚间电视节目《圆桌会议》上宣布这些经济改革举措，但该节目并未在原定时间播出，目前尚不清楚是否是停电所致。

The Obama administration had opened up business opportunities for American investors in the Cuban private sector, but the Cuban bureaucracy was unable to rapidly adapt and the Trump administration rescinded Mr. Obama’s measures.

奥巴马政府曾为美国投资者在古巴私营领域开放了商业机会，但古巴官僚体系未能快速适配，特朗普政府后续也撤销了奥巴马时期的相关政策。

Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga, who also serves as Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment, also said the Cuban government would open the economy to investments beyond the private sector. “This goes beyond the commercial realm,” he said. “It also applies to investments, not only to small ones, but also to large ones, especially in infrastructure.”

兼任古巴外贸和外资部长的佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加还表示，古巴政府的经济开放将不止于私营领域。“这不限于商贸范畴，”他说。“同样适用于投资领域，不仅包括小型投资，也包括大型项目，尤其是基础设施领域。”

But because of the decades-long U.S. embargo, Cuba is not easily able to attract American capital, Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga said.

但他同时表示，由于美国长达数十年的禁运令，古巴很难吸引美国资本。

A person close to the recent negotiations said that the Trump administration was waiting to see whether the changes to be announced on Monday would be truly structural and meaningful — not simply cosmetic — before deciding whether to issue licenses that would allow such investments. The person asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive diplomatic matters.

一位熟悉近期谈判的知情人士称，特朗普政府正观望古巴周一拟宣布的政策调整究竟是真正的结构性实质性变革，还是表面装点门面的举措，之后再决定是否发放许可，允许美国企业赴古投资。因未获授权公开谈及敏感外交事务，该人士要求匿名。

Carlos A Giménez, a Republican congressman from Florida who is Cuban American, said on X on Friday, in Spanish, “There will be ZERO investment from the US unless there is MAJOR political change on the island.”

佛罗里达州共和党籍众议员、古巴裔美国人卡洛斯·希门尼斯周五在X平台用西班牙语发文称：“除非这个岛上发生重大政治变革，否则美国的投资将会是零。”

As U.S. and Cuban officials negotiate over the future of the Communist-ruled island, the Trump administration is said to be seeking to push President Miguel Díaz-Canel from power, The New York Times reported on Monday.

《纽约时报》周一报道称，美古官员就这个共产党执政岛国的未来展开谈判之际，特朗普政府据悉正试图迫使总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔下台。

The Trump administration has warned that if Cuba does not cooperate, it could face a fate similar to that of Venezuela. In January, the U.S. military captured the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, after he refused to step down.

特朗普政府发出警告，若古巴拒不配合，或将面临与委内瑞拉相似的结局。今年1月，委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗因拒绝下台，被美军抓捕。

Last week, President Díaz-Canel acknowledged in a televised appearance that his government was engaged in talks with Trump administration officials to resolve the standoff.

上周，迪亚斯-卡内尔总统在电视讲话中承认，古巴政府正与特朗普政府官员谈判，以解决当前对峙僵局。

In his 90-minute appearance, Mr. Díaz-Canel said that a decision to be announced on Monday would “greatly facilitate” the participation of Cubans abroad in the island’s “economic and social development program.”

在这场90分钟的讲话中，迪亚斯-卡内尔表示，定于周一宣布的决定，将“极大促进”海外古巴侨民参与古巴的“经济与社会发展计划”。

Demographers estimate that more than two million Cubans have left the country in the past five years. In his remarks, Mr. Díaz-Canel said, “It is our responsibility as the government to embrace them, listen to them, tend to them and offer them a space to participate in the economic and social development.”

人口统计学家估算，过去五年已有超200万古巴人离开祖国。迪亚斯-卡内尔在讲话中称：“作为政府，我们有责任接纳他们、倾听他们、关照他们，为他们提供参与国家经济社会发展的空间。”

Some Cuban exiles in Florida and elsewhere have for years pushed for the Cuban government to allow Cubans overseas to invest in the nation’s economy.

多年来，佛罗里达及其他地方的部分古巴流亡者一直推动古巴政府允许海外侨民投资古巴经济。

Cuban officials have signaled to some Cuban Americans that Monday’s announcement will involve allowing exiles to return to the island freely and to run a type of enterprise that was legally recognized by the government in 2021. Those entities are allowed to import goods, provide services, and create jobs, and they have quickly become critical to the Cuban economy. Private supermarkets, for instance, have higher prices than state-run stores but carry a far broader selection of food.

古巴官员已向部分古巴裔美国人透露，周一的公告涉及允许流亡者自由回国，并经营一类2021年获得政府合法认可的企业。这类实体被允许进口商品、提供服务并创造就业岗位，已迅速成为古巴经济的关键支柱。例如，私营超市的售价虽高于国营商店，但食品品类要丰富得多。

For more outsiders to enter and run businesses in Cuba, the U.S. government would have to ease restrictions on traveling and doing business on the island.

若要让更多境外人士进入古巴开展业务，美国政府必须放宽赴古旅行和经商的相关限制。

Hugo Cancio, a Cuban American in Miami, has been running perhaps the most visible U.S.-owned business in Cuba for years. His e-commerce platform, Katapulk, has become a sort of Cuban Amazon, allowing Cubans abroad to order and ship goods to their friends and relatives still in Cuba.

迈阿密的古巴裔美国人乌戈·坎西奥多年来经营着或许是古巴境内知名度最高的美资企业。他的电商平台Katapulk堪称古巴版的亚马逊，旅居海外的古巴人可通过该平台下单，并寄送给留在古巴的亲友。

Mr. Cancio built Katapulk as a U.S.-based entity with a special license to form partnerships with businesses in Cuba, which deliver the goods on the ground. But that structure has been complicated, and U.S. government restrictions have at times hamstrung operations, he said.

坎西奥将Katapulk打造为一家总部位于美国的企业，持有特殊许可，可与古巴本土企业建立合作伙伴关系，由后者负责在当地配送货物。但他表示，这种运营模式本就复杂，美国政府的限制还时常阻碍业务开展。

If the Cuban government allows Cuban Americans to own businesses in Cuba, they could function as a bridge to Washington, Mr. Cancio said.

坎西奥称，若古巴政府允许古巴裔美国人在古拥有企业，这些人将成为古巴与华盛顿之间的沟通桥梁。

“As the Cuban authorities recognize our rights to be part of the Cuban nation, to participate in the economic transformation and the potential political reforms of the future, we will be the ones that will change Washington,” he said. Exiles, he said, could push Congress and Trump administration officials to lift sanctions.

“随着古巴当局认可我们作为古巴民族成员的权利，认可我们参与经济转型、乃至未来潜在政治改革的权利，我们也将成为改变华盛顿的一股力量，”他说。他还表示，流亡群体可以推动国会和特朗普政府官员解除制裁。

“We will be the ones that will talk to Washington and say, ‘Our country now recognizes us, and we want to be part of that transformation,’” Mr. Cancio said.

“我们会成为和华盛顿沟通的人，告诉他们：‘我们的国家现在接纳了我们，我们想成为这场变革的一部分，’”坎西奥说。

By his own account, President Trump was asked to personally pick the name of the military operation against Iran and was bored by all the choices presented to him. “They gave me, like, 20 names, and I’m like, falling asleep,” he said last week. “I didn’t like any of them.”

据特朗普总统自己描述，他被要求亲自为针对伊朗的军事行动命名，但他觉得呈报给他的所有选项都索然无味。“他们给了我大概20个名字，我都听得快睡着了，”他上周说。“我一个都不喜欢。”

Then at last he was offered another option: Operation Epic Fury. That woke him up. “I like that name,” he told supporters at a rally in Kentucky. “I like that name.” And so it was selected.

终于，他得到了又一个选项：“史诗愤怒”行动(Operation Epic Fury)。这让他精神一振。“我喜欢这个名字，”他在肯塔基州的一次集会上告诉支持者。“我喜欢这个名字。”于是，这个名字被选中了。

After all, Epic Fury captures the Trump presidency in its essence. Everything Mr. Trump does, at least as he sees it, is epic — the biggest, the most, the first, “like we’ve never seen before,” as he likes to say. And much of what he does seems to be driven by fury, a deep and abiding enmity toward the forces arrayed against him or those he blames for what he considers the downfall of the country under other presidents.

毕竟，“史诗愤怒”从本质上捕捉到了特朗普总统任期的神韵。特朗普所做的一切——至少在他看来——都是“史诗”级的：最大的、最强的、第一的，正如他常说的，是“我们从未见过的”。而他的大部分行为似乎都由愤怒驱动——一种对他所认为的对立力量，或是对他眼中导致国家在其他总统任内衰落的责任者的深切且持久的敌意。

Operation Epic Fury, therefore, is a quintessentially Trumpian choice for the name of a war. Not for him an Operation Just Cause (Panama), Operation Restore Hope (Somalia), Operation Uphold Democracy (Haiti) or Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan). While other military operation names in modern times have evoked broader American values or uplifting sentiments like freedom and hope, Mr. Trump prefers rage.

因此，“史诗愤怒”是一个典型的特朗普式战争命名。他不需要“正义事业”行动（巴拿马）、“恢复希望”行动（索马里）、“维护民主”行动（海地）或“持久自由”行动（阿富汗）。现代其他军事行动名称往往唤起更广泛的美国价值观或令人振奋的情感（如自由和希望），而特朗普更偏爱愤怒。

This is in a way the Anger Presidency. Anger defines Mr. Trump’s decade on the political stage. Anger at foreigners who come to this country and change its nature. Anger at allies who take advantage of America. Anger at Democrats who cross him. Anger at Republicans who cross him. Anger at appointees he deems insufficiently loyal. Anger at prosecutors, F.B.I. agents, judges, journalists, law firms, elite universities, cultural figures, corporate leaders, pollsters, central bankers and the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

在某种程度上，这是一个“愤怒的总统任期”。愤怒定义了特朗普在政治舞台上的十年：愤怒于来到这个国家并改变其性质的外国人；愤怒于占美国便宜的盟友；愤怒于反对他的民主党人；愤怒于反对他的共和党人；愤怒于他认为不够忠诚的任命官员。他愤怒的对象还包括检察官、FBI特工、法官、记者、律所、精英大学、文化人物、企业领袖、民调专家、央行行长以及挪威诺贝尔委员会。

His rally speeches, news conferences and social media feed are suffused with anger. In the past week, he attacked the “truly sick and demented people” in the news media, the “Radical Left Democrats,” the “Cognitive Mess” governor of California, a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER” Republican congressman from Kentucky and a “misfit” Harvard professor, not even counting the “deranged scumbags” in Iran.

他的集会演讲、新闻发布会和社交媒体动态都充斥着愤怒。在过去的一周里，他攻击了新闻媒体中“极其病态和疯狂的人”、“激进左翼民主党人”、加州那位“认知混乱”的州长、一位来自肯塔基州的“彻头彻尾的灾难级”共和党国会议员，以及一位“格格不入”的哈佛教授，这还没算上伊朗那些“疯掉的卑鄙小人”。

Stewing over recent losses in court, he spent Sunday night posting a series of rambling rants assailing the “completely inept and embarrassing” Supreme Court, the “Deranged” former special counsel, the “absolutely terrible” chair of the Federal Reserve, the “grossly incompetent” former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., journalists who “should be brought up on Charges for TREASON” and “a Wacky, Nasty, Crooked, and totally Out of Control Judge” who ruled against him.

在为最近的法庭失利耿耿于怀时，他周日晚间发布了一系列语无伦次的控诉，抨击“完全无能且令人尴尬”的最高法院、“疯狂的”前特别检察官、“表现极其糟糕”的联邦储备委员会主席、“极度无能”的前总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登、那些“应以叛国罪起诉”的记者，以及一位对他做出不利判决的“古怪、肮脏、狡诈且完全失控的法官”。

He has aroused plenty of anger in others as well, an intense and visceral ire at a leader whom many on the other side of the political spectrum despise and fear. The word volunteered the most by Democrats to describe their emotions about Mr. Trump’s presidency in a January survey by The New York Times and Siena College was “anger.” Independents offered that same word alongside “disappointment.” Mr. Trump and his allies regularly accuse opponents of being afflicted by what they call Trump Derangement Syndrome.

他同样激发了他人心中强烈的愤怒——政治光谱另一端的人们对他既鄙视又恐惧。在《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院1月份的一项调查中，民主党人在描述对特朗普总统任期的感受时，用得最多的词就是“愤怒”。独立人士给出的词也是“愤怒”以及“失望”。特朗普及其盟友则经常指责对手患有所谓的“特朗普错乱症”。

All this, of course, has further charged an age of road-rage politics. Mr. Trump did not inaugurate the polarization that has deepened in America in recent years, but he tapped into it and added rocket fuel. More than at any time in years, Americans view one another through the lens of politics and tribal differences, led by a president who encourages that rather than trying to heal the divisions.

这一切无疑进一步加剧了“路怒式政治”时代。虽然近年来美国加深的极化现象并非由特朗普开创，但他利用了这种情绪并加注了火箭燃料。如今，美国人比多年来任何时候都更多地通过政治和部落差异的棱镜来看待彼此，而这位领导人非但没有试图弥合分歧，反而一直在推波助澜。

Americans are so angry that many no longer want to associate with people who disagree with them. Back in 1960, pollsters asked Americans if it would bother them to have their son or daughter marry someone from the other party. Only about 5 percent said yes. By 2024, that had risen to 38 percent for Republicans and 45 percent for Democrats. Studies show that Americans increasingly are flocking to their own geographic, media and online spaces where they can associate with like-minded compatriots and seethe against those who see the world differently.

美国人的愤怒程度已经到了许多人不再想与政见不同者交往的地步。早在1960年，民调专家询问美国人，如果子女与异见党派人士结婚是否会介意，当时只有约5%的人表示介意。到2024年，这一比例在共和党人中上升到38%，在民主党人中上升到45%。研究显示，美国人正越来越多地聚集在各自的地域、媒体和网络空间里，与志同道合的人抱团，并对那些世界观不同的人怒目而视。

就在这个周末，特朗普先后咒骂了最高法院大法官、联邦储备委员会主席、前总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登等等人物。

Mr. Trump is not the first president with a temper. Even the genial Dwight D. Eisenhower was known to be sharp behind closed doors. Lyndon B. Johnson’s tantrums were Texas sized. Richard M. Nixon seemed to be on a medium boil for most of his nearly six years in office. Bill Clinton, known for being sunny in his public appearances, was famous among aides for what they called his “purple rages” at his staff when the cameras were off. In the privacy of the West Wing, Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s avuncular grandfather demeanor could turn cranky and snappish.

特朗普并非第一位脾气暴躁的总统。即便是和蔼可亲的德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔，在闭门会议中也被认为言辞犀利。林登·B·约翰逊发起火来是“得克萨斯级”的。理查德·M·尼克松在任的近六年里似乎一直处于一种“中度沸腾”的状态。比尔·克林顿以公开场合的阳光形象著称，但在镜头外，他因对助手发作所谓的“紫脸狂怒”而在幕僚中闻名。在西翼的私下场合，慈祥祖父般的小约瑟夫·R·拜登也可能变得暴躁和易怒。

But they rarely showed that side of themselves in public if they could help it. The disparity between public poise and private pique was lampooned by Barack Obama at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in 2015 when he showed up with Luther the anger translator, played by Keegan-Michael Key. From stage, Mr. Obama, a self-described “mellow sort of guy,” would utter some typically bland comment, and Luther would “translate” that into the angry diatribe the president wished he could say out loud.

但如果可以避免，他们很少在公开场合展示那一面。2015年白宫记者晚宴上，贝拉克·奥巴马曾调侃这种“公开沉着与私下恼怒”的反差，当时他带着由基根-迈克尔·凯扮演的愤怒翻译员卢瑟登场。台上，自称“温和派”的奥巴马会发表一些典型的平淡言论，而卢瑟则会将其“翻译”成总统内心想大声吼出来的愤怒抨击。

Mr. Trump, by comparison, does not shy away from diatribes. He embraces anger as part of his persona. His favorite pose for photographers is not a smile but a scowl. “How is the look?” he sometimes asks advisers after a photo shoot. The whole shtick of his 14-year run on reality television was celebrating his end-of-the-episode “You’re fired” takedowns of the losing contestants. Indeed, after laying into Volodymyr Zelensky, the embattled president of an embattled Ukraine, in the Oval Office last year, Mr. Trump noted with satisfaction that “this is going to be great television.”

相比之下，特朗普并不回避抨击。他拥抱愤怒作为其人设的一部分。他最喜欢的拍照姿势不是微笑，而是皱眉。“这表情怎么样？”拍照后他有时会问顾问。他在真人秀节目中长达14年的噱头，就是以此为乐：在每集结尾以一句“你被解雇了”击溃失败的参赛者。事实上，去年在椭圆形办公室痛斥身处困境的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后，特朗普满意地表示：“这会是非常精彩的电视节目。”

For a military operation name, Epic Fury sounds like a video game, which may be apt because that’s the way the Trump White House is marketing this war. Online videos circulated by the administration have portrayed the assault on Iran as if it were the latest installment of “Call of Duty.”

对于一个军事行动的名字，“史诗愤怒”听起来像是一款电子游戏，而这或许很贴切，因为这正是特朗普白宫推销这场战争的方式。政府在网上发布并传播的视频将对伊朗的袭击描绘得就像是《使命召唤》的最新续作。

去年在椭圆形办公室痛斥身处困境的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后，特朗普表示“这会是非常精彩的电视节目”。

In choosing the name, Mr. Trump was focused less on anger than on American strength, according to a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the president’s thinking. He believes he was elected on a platform of restoring the country’s standing on the world stage and the name reflects that, the official said.

据一位不愿透露姓名的白宫官员描述总统的想法，在选择这个名字时，特朗普关注的重点与其说是愤怒，不如说是美国的实力。该官员表示，特朗普认为自己是基于恢复美国的国际地位这一纲领当选的，而这个名字正反映了这一点。