By his own account, President Trump was asked to personally pick the name of the military operation against Iran and was bored by all the choices presented to him. “They gave me, like, 20 names, and I’m like, falling asleep,” he said last week. “I didn’t like any of them.”

据特朗普总统自己描述，他被要求亲自为针对伊朗的军事行动命名，但他觉得呈报给他的所有选项都索然无味。“他们给了我大概20个名字，我都听得快睡着了，”他上周说。“我一个都不喜欢。”

Then at last he was offered another option: Operation Epic Fury. That woke him up. “I like that name,” he told supporters at a rally in Kentucky. “I like that name.” And so it was selected.

终于，他得到了又一个选项：“史诗愤怒”行动(Operation Epic Fury)。这让他精神一振。“我喜欢这个名字，”他在肯塔基州的一次集会上告诉支持者。“我喜欢这个名字。”于是，这个名字被选中了。

After all, Epic Fury captures the Trump presidency in its essence. Everything Mr. Trump does, at least as he sees it, is epic — the biggest, the most, the first, “like we’ve never seen before,” as he likes to say. And much of what he does seems to be driven by fury, a deep and abiding enmity toward the forces arrayed against him or those he blames for what he considers the downfall of the country under other presidents.

毕竟，“史诗愤怒”从本质上捕捉到了特朗普总统任期的神韵。特朗普所做的一切——至少在他看来——都是“史诗”级的：最大的、最强的、第一的，正如他常说的，是“我们从未见过的”。而他的大部分行为似乎都由愤怒驱动——一种对他所认为的对立力量，或是对他眼中导致国家在其他总统任内衰落的责任者的深切且持久的敌意。

Operation Epic Fury, therefore, is a quintessentially Trumpian choice for the name of a war. Not for him an Operation Just Cause (Panama), Operation Restore Hope (Somalia), Operation Uphold Democracy (Haiti) or Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan). While other military operation names in modern times have evoked broader American values or uplifting sentiments like freedom and hope, Mr. Trump prefers rage.

因此，“史诗愤怒”是一个典型的特朗普式战争命名。他不需要“正义事业”行动（巴拿马）、“恢复希望”行动（索马里）、“维护民主”行动（海地）或“持久自由”行动（阿富汗）。现代其他军事行动名称往往唤起更广泛的美国价值观或令人振奋的情感（如自由和希望），而特朗普更偏爱愤怒。

This is in a way the Anger Presidency. Anger defines Mr. Trump’s decade on the political stage. Anger at foreigners who come to this country and change its nature. Anger at allies who take advantage of America. Anger at Democrats who cross him. Anger at Republicans who cross him. Anger at appointees he deems insufficiently loyal. Anger at prosecutors, F.B.I. agents, judges, journalists, law firms, elite universities, cultural figures, corporate leaders, pollsters, central bankers and the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

在某种程度上，这是一个“愤怒的总统任期”。愤怒定义了特朗普在政治舞台上的十年：愤怒于来到这个国家并改变其性质的外国人；愤怒于占美国便宜的盟友；愤怒于反对他的民主党人；愤怒于反对他的共和党人；愤怒于他认为不够忠诚的任命官员。他愤怒的对象还包括检察官、FBI特工、法官、记者、律所、精英大学、文化人物、企业领袖、民调专家、央行行长以及挪威诺贝尔委员会。

His rally speeches, news conferences and social media feed are suffused with anger. In the past week, he attacked the “truly sick and demented people” in the news media, the “Radical Left Democrats,” the “Cognitive Mess” governor of California, a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER” Republican congressman from Kentucky and a “misfit” Harvard professor, not even counting the “deranged scumbags” in Iran.

他的集会演讲、新闻发布会和社交媒体动态都充斥着愤怒。在过去的一周里，他攻击了新闻媒体中“极其病态和疯狂的人”、“激进左翼民主党人”、加州那位“认知混乱”的州长、一位来自肯塔基州的“彻头彻尾的灾难级”共和党国会议员，以及一位“格格不入”的哈佛教授，这还没算上伊朗那些“疯掉的卑鄙小人”。

Stewing over recent losses in court, he spent Sunday night posting a series of rambling rants assailing the “completely inept and embarrassing” Supreme Court, the “Deranged” former special counsel, the “absolutely terrible” chair of the Federal Reserve, the “grossly incompetent” former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., journalists who “should be brought up on Charges for TREASON” and “a Wacky, Nasty, Crooked, and totally Out of Control Judge” who ruled against him.

在为最近的法庭失利耿耿于怀时，他周日晚间发布了一系列语无伦次的控诉，抨击“完全无能且令人尴尬”的最高法院、“疯狂的”前特别检察官、“表现极其糟糕”的联邦储备委员会主席、“极度无能”的前总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登、那些“应以叛国罪起诉”的记者，以及一位对他做出不利判决的“古怪、肮脏、狡诈且完全失控的法官”。

He has aroused plenty of anger in others as well, an intense and visceral ire at a leader whom many on the other side of the political spectrum despise and fear. The word volunteered the most by Democrats to describe their emotions about Mr. Trump’s presidency in a January survey by The New York Times and Siena College was “anger.” Independents offered that same word alongside “disappointment.” Mr. Trump and his allies regularly accuse opponents of being afflicted by what they call Trump Derangement Syndrome.

他同样激发了他人心中强烈的愤怒——政治光谱另一端的人们对他既鄙视又恐惧。在《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院1月份的一项调查中，民主党人在描述对特朗普总统任期的感受时，用得最多的词就是“愤怒”。独立人士给出的词也是“愤怒”以及“失望”。特朗普及其盟友则经常指责对手患有所谓的“特朗普错乱症”。

All this, of course, has further charged an age of road-rage politics. Mr. Trump did not inaugurate the polarization that has deepened in America in recent years, but he tapped into it and added rocket fuel. More than at any time in years, Americans view one another through the lens of politics and tribal differences, led by a president who encourages that rather than trying to heal the divisions.

这一切无疑进一步加剧了“路怒式政治”时代。虽然近年来美国加深的极化现象并非由特朗普开创，但他利用了这种情绪并加注了火箭燃料。如今，美国人比多年来任何时候都更多地通过政治和部落差异的棱镜来看待彼此，而这位领导人非但没有试图弥合分歧，反而一直在推波助澜。

Americans are so angry that many no longer want to associate with people who disagree with them. Back in 1960, pollsters asked Americans if it would bother them to have their son or daughter marry someone from the other party. Only about 5 percent said yes. By 2024, that had risen to 38 percent for Republicans and 45 percent for Democrats. Studies show that Americans increasingly are flocking to their own geographic, media and online spaces where they can associate with like-minded compatriots and seethe against those who see the world differently.

美国人的愤怒程度已经到了许多人不再想与政见不同者交往的地步。早在1960年，民调专家询问美国人，如果子女与异见党派人士结婚是否会介意，当时只有约5%的人表示介意。到2024年，这一比例在共和党人中上升到38%，在民主党人中上升到45%。研究显示，美国人正越来越多地聚集在各自的地域、媒体和网络空间里，与志同道合的人抱团，并对那些世界观不同的人怒目而视。

就在这个周末，特朗普先后咒骂了最高法院大法官、联邦储备委员会主席、前总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登等等人物。

Mr. Trump is not the first president with a temper. Even the genial Dwight D. Eisenhower was known to be sharp behind closed doors. Lyndon B. Johnson’s tantrums were Texas sized. Richard M. Nixon seemed to be on a medium boil for most of his nearly six years in office. Bill Clinton, known for being sunny in his public appearances, was famous among aides for what they called his “purple rages” at his staff when the cameras were off. In the privacy of the West Wing, Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s avuncular grandfather demeanor could turn cranky and snappish.

特朗普并非第一位脾气暴躁的总统。即便是和蔼可亲的德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔，在闭门会议中也被认为言辞犀利。林登·B·约翰逊发起火来是“得克萨斯级”的。理查德·M·尼克松在任的近六年里似乎一直处于一种“中度沸腾”的状态。比尔·克林顿以公开场合的阳光形象著称，但在镜头外，他因对助手发作所谓的“紫脸狂怒”而在幕僚中闻名。在西翼的私下场合，慈祥祖父般的小约瑟夫·R·拜登也可能变得暴躁和易怒。

But they rarely showed that side of themselves in public if they could help it. The disparity between public poise and private pique was lampooned by Barack Obama at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in 2015 when he showed up with Luther the anger translator, played by Keegan-Michael Key. From stage, Mr. Obama, a self-described “mellow sort of guy,” would utter some typically bland comment, and Luther would “translate” that into the angry diatribe the president wished he could say out loud.

但如果可以避免，他们很少在公开场合展示那一面。2015年白宫记者晚宴上，贝拉克·奥巴马曾调侃这种“公开沉着与私下恼怒”的反差，当时他带着由基根-迈克尔·凯扮演的愤怒翻译员卢瑟登场。台上，自称“温和派”的奥巴马会发表一些典型的平淡言论，而卢瑟则会将其“翻译”成总统内心想大声吼出来的愤怒抨击。

Mr. Trump, by comparison, does not shy away from diatribes. He embraces anger as part of his persona. His favorite pose for photographers is not a smile but a scowl. “How is the look?” he sometimes asks advisers after a photo shoot. The whole shtick of his 14-year run on reality television was celebrating his end-of-the-episode “You’re fired” takedowns of the losing contestants. Indeed, after laying into Volodymyr Zelensky, the embattled president of an embattled Ukraine, in the Oval Office last year, Mr. Trump noted with satisfaction that “this is going to be great television.”

相比之下，特朗普并不回避抨击。他拥抱愤怒作为其人设的一部分。他最喜欢的拍照姿势不是微笑，而是皱眉。“这表情怎么样？”拍照后他有时会问顾问。他在真人秀节目中长达14年的噱头，就是以此为乐：在每集结尾以一句“你被解雇了”击溃失败的参赛者。事实上，去年在椭圆形办公室痛斥身处困境的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后，特朗普满意地表示：“这会是非常精彩的电视节目。”

For a military operation name, Epic Fury sounds like a video game, which may be apt because that’s the way the Trump White House is marketing this war. Online videos circulated by the administration have portrayed the assault on Iran as if it were the latest installment of “Call of Duty.”

对于一个军事行动的名字，“史诗愤怒”听起来像是一款电子游戏，而这或许很贴切，因为这正是特朗普白宫推销这场战争的方式。政府在网上发布并传播的视频将对伊朗的袭击描绘得就像是《使命召唤》的最新续作。

去年在椭圆形办公室痛斥身处困境的乌克兰总统泽连斯基后，特朗普表示“这会是非常精彩的电视节目”。

In choosing the name, Mr. Trump was focused less on anger than on American strength, according to a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the president’s thinking. He believes he was elected on a platform of restoring the country’s standing on the world stage and the name reflects that, the official said.

据一位不愿透露姓名的白宫官员描述总统的想法，在选择这个名字时，特朗普关注的重点与其说是愤怒，不如说是美国的实力。该官员表示，特朗普认为自己是基于恢复美国的国际地位这一纲领当选的，而这个名字正反映了这一点。

President Trump on Monday said he would ask to postpone a planned visit to Beijing at the end of the month to meet with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, saying: “We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

特朗普总统周一表示，他将要求推迟原定于本月底访问北京、会见中国领导人习近平的计划，他说：“我们正处于战争状态，我认为留下来很重要。”

Earlier, he disparaged U.S. allies that he said had relied too long — and too expensively — on American defense, as several of those countries have declined to meet his call to send warships to escort merchant vessels in and out of the Persian Gulf.

此前，他还抨击美国的一众盟友过度长期依赖美国提供防务保护，代价高昂，原因是其中多个国家拒绝响应他派遣军舰护航波斯湾商船进出的呼吁。

Referring to countries that have rebuffed, or reacted coolly, to his appeal for help in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump said he had long believed that “if we ever needed help, they won’t be there for us,” and they were proving his point. He added, “You mean for 40 years we’re protecting you and you don’t want to get involved in something that’s very minor?” noting that Europe, Japan and others depend on oil from the Persian Gulf far more than the United States does.

谈及那些拒绝回应他关于协助护航船只通过霍尔木兹海峡的呼吁，或反应冷淡的国家，特朗普表示，他一直认为“如果我们有朝一日需要帮助，他们绝不会帮我们”，而这些国家现在的表现印证了他的判断。他还说：“你们的意思是，我们保护了你们40年，而你们连这么一件小事都不愿参与？”他指出，欧洲、日本等地区和国家对波斯湾石油的依赖程度远超美国。

On Sunday, he had said he might not make the trip if China did not contribute warships to the escort efforts, but in his remarks on Monday he did not link the two things.

周日，特朗普表示，若中国不派遣军舰参与护航，他可能取消此次访华行程，但周一的讲话中，他并未将两者关联。

“We don’t need anybody; we’re the strongest nation in the world,” Mr. Trump said. He suggested his request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz instead amounted to a loyalty test of America’s allies. “I’m almost doing it in some cases not because we need them but because I want to find out how they react,” he said.

“我们不需要任何人，我们是世界上最强大的国家，”特朗普称。他表示，呼吁盟友协助重开霍尔木兹海峡，实则是对美国盟友的忠诚度测试。“在某些情况下，我这么做并不是因为我们需要他们，而是想看看他们会怎么反应。”

Even so, Mr. Trump said that “numerous countries have told me that they’re on the way.” But asked to name them, he replied, “I’d rather not say yet, but we’ll be announcing them.”

即便如此，特朗普称“已经有很多国家告诉我，他们正在赶来”。但被问及具体国家时，他回应：“我现在还不想说，但我们会公布名单的。”

The sharpest refusal to his belated effort to build an international coalition against Iran came Monday from Germany, whose defense minister, Boris Pistorius, said, “This is not our war; we did not start it.” Top officials of Japan, Italy and Australia said Monday that their countries would not participate in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

周一，德国对特朗普组建反伊朗国际联盟的滞后努力给出了最明确的拒绝，德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托留斯表示：“这不是我们的战争，不是我们挑起的。”日本、意大利和澳大利亚的高级官员周一也宣布，本国不会参与重开霍尔木兹海峡的行动。

The European Union will not expand maritime operations in the region to protect traffic through the strait, said its top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. “This is not Europe’s war, but Europe’s interests are directly at stake,” she said.

欧盟最高外交官卡娅·卡拉斯称，欧盟不会扩大在该地区的海上行动以保护海峡通行。“这不是欧洲的战争，但欧洲的利益直接受到威胁，”她表示。

Others were noncommittal, including France, South Korea and Britain, whose prime minister, Keir Starmer, said his country would not be “drawn into wider war.”

其他国家则态度暧昧，包括法国、韩国和英国。英国首相斯塔默称，英国不会“被卷入更广泛的战争”。

As Iran blockades most traffic through the oil shipping choke point, Mr. Trump’s call on social media on Saturday for other nations to join the United States in an escort effort was the first time he had sounded eager to build a broad coalition against Iran. But he was asking for backup from allies he had not consulted ahead of the U.S.-Israeli decision to go to war, and whom he had derided as freeloaders again on Monday.

随着伊朗封锁这一石油运输咽喉要道的大部分通行，特朗普周六在社交媒体上呼吁其他国家与美国共同开展护航行动，这是他首次表示希望组建一个广泛的反伊朗联盟。但他是在美以决定开战前未与盟友磋商的情况下寻求盟友支援，周一又再次将这些盟友嘲讽为“搭便车者”。

Mr. Trump has said that China, too, should take part, because it is heavily dependent on oil from the Gulf, but Iran sells oil to China and is allowing Chinese ships to transit the strait safely, giving Beijing little incentive to go along.

特朗普称，中国也应参与其中，因为中国高度依赖海湾地区的石油，但伊朗向中国出售石油，并允许中国船只安全通过海峡，这使得北京几乎没有参与的动力。

The American-Israeli air war against Iran, now in its third week, has killed more than 2,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and has drawn in much of the Middle East. Iran has launched rockets and drones at neighboring countries and at ships in the Gulf, and global energy prices have skyrocketed. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, briefly reached $106 on Monday, before falling back to about $100.

美以对伊朗的空袭已进入第三周，已造成超2000人死亡，死者主要来自伊朗和黎巴嫩，战火已波及中东大部分地区。伊朗向邻国及海湾船只发射火箭弹和无人机，全球能源价格飙升。周一，作为全球石油基准的布伦特原油价格一度触及106美元，随后回落至约100美元。

The United States appears to have been unprepared for the extent of Iran’s retaliation and the need to protect merchant ships and giant oil tankers from attack — something that administration officials have discussed publicly since the first week of the war, but has not yet begun. Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, in a video update on Monday, did not offer details on how the United States would reopen the strait

美国似乎对伊朗的报复规模以及保护商船和巨型油轮不受袭击的必要性准备不足——尽管政府官员自战争第一周开始就已公开讨论过这个问题，但相关行动尚未展开。美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在周一的视频通报中，并未透露美国将如何重新开放海峡的具体细节。

Two weeks into a war against Iran that he chose to launch, President Trump faces a stark choice — stay in the battle to achieve the dauntingly ambitious goals he has set, or try to extract himself from an expanding and intensifying conflict that is generating damaging military, diplomatic and economic shock waves.

在他主动对伊朗发起的这场战争已经过去两周之际，特朗普总统面临着一个严峻的选择——是继续战斗以实现他所设定的那些令人生畏的宏伟目标，还是设法从这场不断扩大且愈演愈烈的冲突中抽身，而这场冲突正产生具有破坏性的军事、外交和经济冲击波。

He has quickly discovered that both options are deeply problematic, littered with consequences that he and his team downplayed when he plunged the United States, alongside Israel, into the biggest war in the Middle East in nearly a quarter-century.

他很快发现，这两个选项都极具挑战，且会导致严重后果——而在他带领美国与以色列一同投入这场中东近四分之一个世纪以来最大的战争时，他和他的团队曾表示无需过分担心这些后果。

He can continue to fight a weakened enemy that has nevertheless proved adept at extracting a fast-rising economic price for the United States and its allies, tying the global energy markets in knots and striking a dozen countries across the region.

他可以选择继续作战，敌人已被削弱，但仍证明自己善于让美国及其盟友付出快速飙升的经济代价。他们正将全球能源市场搅得混乱不堪，并袭击了该地区的十几个国家。

Battling on would put more American lives at risk, accelerate the financial costs and risk further fraying alliances. There is angst within Mr. Trump’s political base over the sharp departure from his pledge to avoid entangling the nation in more wars.

继续战斗将使更多美国人的生命处于危险之中，加剧财政成本，并可能导致盟友关系的进一步破裂。特朗普的政治基本盘本身也出现了不安，因为这与其避免让国家陷入更多战争的承诺背道而驰。

Or he can begin to pull back, even though most of his objectives — including assuring that Iran never again possesses the capability to produce a nuclear weapon — are not yet met. The biggest military accomplishments of the joint U.S.-Israel action so far, officials say, have been wiping out much of Iran’s missile arsenal and air defenses and crippling its navy. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s brutal leader for nearly 40 years, is dead.

或者，他可以开始撤军，尽管他的大部分目标——包括确保伊朗永远不再具备生产核武器的能力——尚未实现。官员们表示，到目前为止，美以联合行动最大的军事成果是摧毁了伊朗大部分导弹库和防空系统，并瘫痪了其海军。执政近40年的伊朗残暴领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊已经身亡。

But an emboldened theocracy is still in power, apparently commanded by the ayatollah’s injured son, who has already sworn to continue deploying Iran’s asymmetrical capabilities, from cyberattacks to planting sea mines and conducting missile strikes on targets in the region. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps paramilitary force and the militias that killed thousands of protesting Iranians on the streets in January remain in place.

然而，一个更加激进的神权政权仍在掌权，显然由哈梅内伊受伤的儿子指挥。他已经宣誓将继续部署伊朗的不对称作战能力，包括网络攻击、布设水雷以及对该地区目标进行导弹袭击。在1月份杀害数千名伊朗抗议者的强大准军事组织——伊斯兰革命卫队及其民兵组织依然纹丝不动。

周日美以联军在德黑兰发动空袭的现场。

Moreover, if Mr. Trump leaves now, the stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel that is at the heart of fears that Iran could manufacture 10 or more nuclear weapons would remain inside Iranian territory, within reach of a wounded Iranian government that may be more motivated than ever to turn that fuel into weapons. “People are going to have to go and get it,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said just as the war began, alluding to a ground operation to retrieve the material from deep underground storage in the heart of Iran, an immensely risky operation that Mr. Trump has said he is considering but not ready to order.

此外，如果特朗普现在撤军，那批处于恐惧核心的、接近武器级的核燃料仍将留在伊朗境内。人们担心伊朗可能利用这些燃料制造10枚或更多核武器，而一个受创的伊朗政府可能比以往任何时候都更有动力将这些燃料武器化。“必须有人去把它取回来，”国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥在战争刚开始时说道，他暗指要进行地面行动，从伊朗心脏地带的深层地下仓库中回收这些材料。特朗普曾表示他正在考虑这项极具风险的行动，但尚未准备下达命令。

As the war enters its third week, the consequences are widening. Thirteen Americans have been killed in action. More than 2,100 people have been killed since the start of the war, most in Iran. More than 1,348 civilians there had been killed as of Wednesday, according to Iran’s representative to the United Nations.

随着战争进入第三周，其影响正在扩大。已有13名美军士兵阵亡。自战争开始以来，已有2100多人丧生，其中大多数在伊朗。根据伊朗驻联合国代表的数据，截至周三，已有超过1348名伊朗平民遇难。

The United States is deploying 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, adding to the 50,000 already there, after U.S. forces attacked Kharg Island, the huge shipping port for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports.

在美军袭击了伊朗绝大部分石油出口的枢纽——哈尔克岛之后，美国正向中东增派2500名海军陆战队成员，使驻军总数达到5.25万人。

Despite Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assertion that Iran’s success in threatening shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was nothing to worry about, that vital waterway remains all but shut down, choking off a big chunk of global trade, especially in oil. By Saturday, Mr. Trump appealed on social media for China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send naval forces to secure the strait, his first public acknowledgment that keeping the vital waterway open could require help and more resources than the United States has in the region now.

尽管国防部长皮特·海格塞斯声称伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡航运的企图不足为虑，但这一至关重要的水道目前几乎处于关闭状态，扼杀了全球很大一部分贸易，尤其是石油贸易。到周六，特朗普在社交媒体上呼吁中国、法国、日本、韩国和英国派遣海军力量来保卫海峡。这是他首次公开承认，维持这一重要水道的开放可能需要比美国目前在区域内更多的资源和外部帮助。

By Saturday, plumes of smoke were seen rising from a major oil trading port in the United Arab Emirates after a drone attack. To alleviate price hikes, the United States even suspended sanctions against some Russian oil sales. The U.S. Embassy in Iraq has been attacked twice in recent days.

截至周六，阿联酋一个主要的石油贸易港口在遭到无人机袭击后升起了烟柱。为了缓解油价上涨，美国甚至暂停了对部分俄罗斯石油销售的制裁。驻伊拉克美国大使馆在最近几天也遭到了两次袭击。

Mr. Trump has wrestled publicly with his stay-or-leave options, sometimes suggesting that the war is all but won and at others seeming to acknowledge that there is still heavy fighting ahead. The president, who said he ordered the attack because he had a “good feeling” that Iran was preparing to preemptively attack U.S. forces in the region, said the other day that he would also rely on his instincts on when to get out. He told Fox News he would “feel it in my bones.”

特朗普一直在公开纠结于“留还是走”的选择，有时暗示战争几乎已经获胜，有时又似乎承认前方仍有激战。这位自称因“预感”伊朗正准备对美军发动先发制人攻击而下令开战的总统，前几天表示他也会依靠直觉来决定何时撤离。他告诉福克斯新闻，他会“凭骨子里的感觉”做决定。

The second week of the war brought a recognition by the Trump administration that Iran’s willingness and ability to disrupt the global economy by choking off the Strait of Hormuz was greater than officials had anticipated, as was Tehran’s capacity to widen the war across the region, according to interviews with officials in the United States and Israel, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

根据对美以官员（其中许多人要求匿名以讨论国家安全事务）的采访，战争的第二周让特朗普政府意识到，伊朗阻断霍尔木兹海峡以扰乱全球经济的意愿和能力超出了官员们的预期，德黑兰将战争扩大到整个地区的能力也同样惊人。

伊朗仍由一个日益嚣张的神权政权掌权，该政权显然由阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊受伤的儿子领导，阿里·哈梅内伊本人已在战争初期阵亡。

Even as Mr. Trump repeatedly suggested that the war was almost won, the United States and Israel continued to step up the tempo of their operations and the United States continued to move more military resources into the region. There were signs that the U.S.-Israel partnership was undergoing strains. And some Republicans worried that Mr. Trump’s political base — deeply suspicious of foreign interventions — could fracture if the American commitment grows and U.S. casualties mounted.

尽管特朗普多次暗示战争即将胜利，但美国和以色列仍在继续加快行动节奏，美国也在向该地区运送更多军事资源。有迹象表明，美以伙伴关系正面临压力。一些共和党人担心，如果美国的投入增加且伤亡人数上升，特朗普那些对海外干预深表怀疑的基本盘可能会发生分裂。

Mr. Trump’s aides maintain that 14 days into a complex military operation is far too early to judge results. And they insist that Mr. Trump is prepared to tough it out.

特朗普的助手们坚称，对于一项复杂的军事行动来说，开战14天就评判结果还为时过早。他们坚信特朗普已经做好了挺过去的准备。

“He made the decision to take the short-term risk to oil prices for the long-term benefit of wiping out the threat that Iran poses to the United States,” Karoline Leavitt, the president’s press secretary, said on Saturday. “He is wise enough to know that operations like these are judged by their outcomes. And if the U.S. can say the Iranian military capability is wiped out, the president knows that will be one of the greatest accomplishments of any president in modern times.”

“他做出决定承受油价的短期风险，是为了换取彻底消除伊朗对美国威胁的长期利益，”总统新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周六表示。“他足够聪明，知道这类行动是以结果论英雄的。如果美国能表明伊朗的军事能力已被铲除，总统知道那将是现代任何一位总统最伟大的成就之一。”

She concluded: “The president is dug in to ensure the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved.”

她总结道：“总统正全力以赴，确保‘史诗愤怒行动’的目标全面实现。”

Even if Mr. Trump is right, the effects will be felt for years, or decades. Hoshyar Zebari, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Iraq, said that while he believed the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the “end of an era” for the region, he was not convinced that it meant the end of Iran’s theocratic Islamic Republic.

即使特朗普是对的，其影响也将持续数年甚至数十年。伊拉克前外交部长及副总理霍希亚尔·泽巴里表示，虽然他认为杀死哈梅内伊是该地区“一个时代的终结”，但他并不认为这意味着伊朗的神权伊斯兰共和国的终结。

“They are resisting, they are resilient,” he said. “This is a war between technology and ideology. The Iranians are squeezed, and their situation is difficult, but for them, this is ‘to be or not to be’.”

“他们在抵抗，他们很有韧性，”他说。“这是一场技术与意识形态之间的战争。伊朗人正承受压力，处境艰难，但对他们来说，这是‘生存还是毁灭’的问题。”

Reopening the Strait?

重新开放海峡？

At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr. Trump pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

在上周白宫椭圆形办公室的一次会议上，感到沮丧的特朗普质问参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军，为什么美国不能立即重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The answer was straightforward: Even one Iranian soldier or militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the strait in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slow-moving supertanker, or plant a limpet mine on its hull.

答案很简单：即便只有一名伊朗士兵或民兵驾驶快艇穿过狭窄的海峡颈部，也能向缓慢行驶的超级油轮发射移动导弹，或在其船体上安装吸附雷。

With oil already hovering around $100 a barrel, and insurance premiums for transiting the Persian Gulf surging, the image of more burning tankers would make the Iranians look more powerful than they really are. Already, having seen Iran attack shipping around the strait, tanker owners are refusing to take the risk, even after Mr. Trump declared on Fox last Sunday that they should “show some guts.”

随着油价已在每桶100美元左右徘徊，且穿行波斯湾的保险费飙升，更多油轮着火的画面会使伊朗人看起来比实际更强大。目睹了伊朗在海峡周边的袭击后，油轮船东们拒绝冒险，即便特朗普上周日在福克斯新闻上宣称他们应该“拿出点胆量来”。

上周，霍尔木兹海峡附近的油轮。该海峡的航运几乎陷入停滞，导致全球经济受到拖累。

By the Pentagon’s metrics — “total air dominance,” as Mr. Hegseth put it, plus the sinking of much of Iran’s navy and the destruction of hundreds of missiles and launchers — the U.S. military is ahead of schedule.

按照五角大楼的指标——如海格塞斯所说的“完全制空权”，加上击沉了伊朗大部分海军并摧毁了数百枚导弹和发射器——美军的进度是超前的。

“Iran has no air defenses, Iran has no air force, Iran has no navy,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters during a Pentagon briefing. Iran is now firing 90 percent fewer missiles than at the start of the war, the Pentagon reported, and 95 percent fewer one-way attack drones.

“伊朗没有防空系统，没有空军，没有海军，”海格塞斯在五角大楼简报会上告诉记者。五角大楼报告称，伊朗现在的导弹发射量比战争开始时减少了90%，自杀式无人机减少了95%。

“Never before has a modern capable military, which Iran used to have, been so quickly destroyed and made combat-ineffective,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters on Friday.

“从未有一支像伊朗这样具备现代化能力的军队，如此迅速地被摧毁并失去战斗力，”海格塞斯周五说道。

But the problem is that the destruction of its conventional forces has not eliminated Iran’s ability to sow chaos, even in its weakened state. And, five years into dealing with Mr. Trump, the Iranians appear to understand that soaring oil prices and declining stock markets can be powerful pressure points on him.

但问题在于，常规力量的毁灭并未消除伊朗制造混乱的能力，即便是在其虚弱的状态下。而且，在与特朗普打交道五年后，伊朗人似乎明白，飙升的油价和下跌的股市是对特朗普最有力的压力点。

The strait was Exhibit A in Iran’s ability to seize an asymmetric advantage. Despite ramped-up strikes in recent days against what little is left of the Iranian Navy, traffic through the strait has come to a near halt. A New York Times analysis concluded that as of Thursday, at least 16 oil tankers, cargo ships and other commercial vessels had been attacked in the Persian Gulf, including three in the narrowest part of the strait.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗夺取不对称优势能力的“证物A”。尽管最近几天加大了对伊朗海军残余力量的打击，但海峡的航运已近乎停滞。《纽约时报》的一项分析得出结论，截至周四，波斯湾至少有16艘油轮、货船和其他商业船舶遭到袭击，其中三艘发生在海峡最狭窄处。

The one solution being discussed the most is having the U.S. Navy escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a costly and risky operation and one that administration officials conceded was probably weeks away. The United States would need to assemble even more ships and defensive equipment, and conduct further assaults on the Iranian weaponry that menaces the strait.

目前讨论最多的解决方案是让美国海军为通过海峡的商船护航——这是一项耗资巨大且风险极高的行动，政府官员承认这可能还需要数周时间。美国需要集结更多的船只和防御设备，并对威胁海峡的伊朗武器进行进一步打击。

Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command, which is carrying out the war effort, flew to Washington for a two-hour meeting on Thursday night at the Pentagon with Mr. Hegseth and General Caine to discuss strategy and additional forces.

负责此次战争行动的美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将周四晚飞抵华盛顿，在五角大楼与海格塞斯和凯恩将军进行了两小时的会议，讨论战略和增兵事宜。

The next day, U.S. officials said that about 2,500 Marines aboard as many as three warships were cutting short a tour in the Indo-Pacific to rush to the Middle East. Military officials declined to say what missions the Marines would be assigned, but they are equipped to help secure the strait or potentially join an operation to seize Kharg Island, should Mr. Trump order them into action.

次日，美国官员表示，最多可达三艘军舰上的约2500名海军陆战队员提前结束了在印太地区的部署，正赶往中东。军方拒绝透露这些士兵将承担什么任务，但他们配备的装备足以帮助保卫海峡，或者如果特朗普下令，他们可能会参与夺取哈尔克岛的行动。

On Sunday, a senior U.S. military official said there would be an international effort to ensure the flow of oil and goods through the strait.

周日，一名美国军方高级官员表示，将通过国际协作来确保石油和商品的流通。

油价徘徊在每桶100美元左右，汽油价格也大幅上涨。

But while American leaders were bringing in reinforcements, so were the Iranians — of a different kind. Iran built up a talented cybercorps after the United States and Israel mounted a sophisticated cyberattack on the country’s nuclear centrifuges more than 16 years ago. Now Iran’s hackers were being called into service, directed at targets in both Israel and the United States.

然而，在美国领导人引入援军的同时，伊朗人也在引入另一种不同类型的援军。自16多年前美以对伊朗核离心机发动复杂的网络攻击以来，伊朗建立了一支极具才能的网络军团。现在，伊朗的黑客正被征召入伍，目标直指以色列和美国。

One of the most conspicuous of those affected was Stryker Corporation, a maker of advanced medical equipment in Michigan. Its systems were brought down last week, and an organization of hackers called Handala claimed responsibility, saying that it was in retaliation for the strike on an elementary school outside a military base in southern Iran in which, according to Iranian officials, at least 175 people died, mostly children. (The Times has reported that a preliminary finding by the U.S. military indicates that a Tomahawk missile, launched by U.S. forces, was responsible for the school strike.)

受影响最明显的公司之一是位于密歇根州、生产先进医疗设备的史赛克公司。该公司的系统上周瘫痪，一个名为Handala的黑客组织宣称对此负责，称这是对伊朗南部军事基地外一所小学遭袭事件的报复。根据伊朗官员的说法，那次袭击造成至少175人死亡，其中大多数是儿童。（《纽约时报》报道称，美国军方的一项初步调查结果显示，袭击学校的是一枚由美军发射的“战斧”巡航导弹。）

And then there were a series of terrorist attacks inside the United States that were attributed to individuals who might have been inspired by the American and Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon, though the evidence so far is murky. On Thursday, a man yelling “Allahu akbar” opened fire at Old Dominion University in Virginia before being killed, and in Michigan, a naturalized American citizen born in Lebanon rammed his vehicle into a reform synagogue that is home to a school before killing himself.

此外，美国境内发生了一系列恐怖袭击，据称袭击者受美以袭击伊朗和黎巴嫩军事行动的激发，尽管目前证据仍然不明确。周四，一名高呼“真主至大”的男子在弗吉尼亚州欧道明大学开枪，后被击毙；在密歇根州，一名黎巴嫩出生的美国归化公民驾车冲撞一所设有学校的改革派犹太会堂后自杀。

New Strains With Israel

与以色列之间的新摩擦

In the days leading up to the war in late February, senior Israeli officials told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if the initial strike against Iran succeeded in killing a large portion of the Iranian security establishment, including the supreme leader, there was a good chance that protests against the government would erupt again quickly.

在2月底战争爆发前的几天里，以色列高级官员告诉总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，如果对伊朗的初步打击成功击毙包括最高领袖在内的大批伊朗安全机构要员，那么反政府抗议活动很有可能再次迅速爆发。

Mr. Netanyahu appeared to sell that idea to Mr. Trump, who built it into his own message to the Iranian people on the morning of the opening attack. “When we are finished, take over your government,” Mr. Trump said. “It will be yours to take.”

内塔尼亚胡似乎把这一设想传达给了特朗普，后者在战争开始当天早上向伊朗民众发表讲话时也采用了这一说法。“当我们完成行动后，你们就去接管政府，”特朗普说。“那是属于你们的。”

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡于去年12月在佛罗里达州拜访了特朗普。内塔尼亚胡在上周的新闻发布会上表示，自战争爆发以来，两人几乎每天都在通话。

It seemed far-fetched to many at the time. In the two weeks since, only pro-government rallies have been seen in Tehran’s major squares, fueled by anger over the war and the American military’s apparent missteps, including the deadly strike on the school. Now Mr. Trump himself seems to have his doubts about how effective the protesters could be.

当时许多人觉得这种想法不太现实。此后两周，德黑兰主要广场上只出现了支持政府的集会，对这次战争的愤怒以及美国军方明显的失误（包括致命的学校袭击事件）加剧了这种情绪。如今，特朗普本人似乎也开始怀疑抗议者究竟能发挥多大作用。 

In a radio interview with Brian Kilmeade of Fox News, Mr. Trump conceded that the Basij militias tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would probably kill people who rose up.

在接受福克斯新闻主持人布莱恩·基尔米德的广播电台采访时，特朗普承认，与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队关联的巴斯基民兵很可能会杀害反抗的民众。

“They say, ‘Anybody protests, we’re going to kill you in the streets.’ So I really think that’s a big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons,” Mr. Trump concluded. “I think it’s a very big hurdle.”

“他们说：‘谁敢抗议，我们就当街杀掉你。’所以我确实认为，对没有武器的人来说，这是一个很难跨过的障碍，”特朗普总结说。“我认为这是一个很大的障碍。”

There has been similar tension over Israel’s second front in Lebanon, with renewed attacks on Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy group. In the Trump administration’s view, those strikes only heighten the risk from the spreading conflict while taking resources and attention away from the main target. In Mr. Netanyahu’s view, Iran and Hezbollah are inseparable, and the time to attack the terrorist organization is when the Iranian leadership is too consumed by its own battles to help out.

以色列在黎巴嫩的第二战线也出现了类似的分歧，以色列在该国再次打击伊朗的代理组织真主党。特朗普政府认为，这些打击只会加剧冲突蔓延的风险，同时分散了本应投入主要目标的资源与注意力。而内塔尼亚胡则认为，伊朗与真主党密不可分，趁伊朗领导层自顾不暇、无力支援之际，打击这个恐怖组织正是时机。

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement on Sunday that Israel and the United States were maintaining a “close and ongoing security and strategic cooperation, based on professional dialogue and the highest level of transparency.”

以色列国防军周日在声明中表示，以色列与美国“基于专业对话和最高透明度”，保持着“密切且持续的安全与战略合作”。

“The claim that the I.D.F. deliberately opened an additional front with Lebanon is incorrect and misleading,” the statement said, adding that “Hezbollah made a deliberate decision to join the war being waged by Iran against Israel and launched a wave of strikes, acting with the direction of the Iranian regime.”

“有关以军蓄意在黎巴嫩开辟另一战线的说法是错误且具有误导性的，”声明称，并补充称，“真主党蓄意决定加入伊朗针对以色列发动的战争，在伊朗政权指挥下发起了一系列袭击。”

以色列于3月7日袭击了伊朗的石油库，引发了大规模火灾，并导致油价出现飙升。

Through it all, Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu have been speaking almost every day, the prime minister said at a news conference last week. White House officials confirm the frequent conversations and say Mr. Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.

内塔尼亚胡上周在新闻发布会上表示，在此期间，特朗普与他几乎每天都通话。白宫官员证实了两人频繁沟通，并表示特朗普也定期与阿拉伯领导人通话，特别是沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。

According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake.”

据多名官员透露，特朗普从这位王储那里得到的建议是持续猛烈打击伊朗——这本质上是在重复2015年去世的沙特阿卜杜拉国王曾多次向华盛顿提出的建议：“斩掉蛇头”。

Trump’s Next Decisions: Kharg Island and the Nuclear Depot

特朗普的下一步决策：哈尔克岛与核武器库

Mr. Trump said at the outset of the conflict that he expected it could take four to six weeks of fighting, and White House officials say that is still their expectation. That means the war is likely to still be underway when Mr. Trump takes his long-awaited trip to China at the end of March, one that was supposed to focus on trade and security issues.

冲突伊始，特朗普曾表示，预计战事将持续四至六周，白宫官员称这一预期仍然未变。这意味着，当特朗普于3月底开启备受期待的访华之行时，战争很可能仍在进行中，而此次访问本应聚焦贸易与安全议题。

Now there is little doubt that the war will dominate the Beijing summit. Last year, President Xi Jinping of China used his control over critical rare earth minerals and magnets to force Mr. Trump to back down on tariffs; now he must face the possibility that this year Mr. Trump could control oil shipments to Chinese refineries from Venezuela and, depending how the war turns out, Iran.

如今几乎可以确定，这场战争将成为北京峰会的核心议题。去年，中国国家主席习近平利用对关键稀土矿产和磁体的掌控，迫使特朗普在关税问题上让步；如今习近平必须面对这样一种可能性：今年特朗普可能控制从委内瑞拉运往中国炼油厂的石油运输，根据战争走向，甚至可能控制伊朗对中国的石油运输。

In 2025 China purchased about 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, more than 13 percent of the oil it brought in by sea. (For Iran, China is overwhelmingly its biggest customer.)

2025年，中国日均进口伊朗石油约140万桶，占其海运石油进口总量的13%以上。（对伊朗而言，中国是压倒性的最大客户。）

Even as he prepares for the summit, Mr. Trump will have to grapple with two of the biggest decisions of the war: whether to attack, with ground troops, Kharg Island and the nuclear storage facilities where about 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium is believed to remain.

在筹备峰会的同时，特朗普还需应对这场战争中两项最重大的决策：是否动用地面部队攻击哈尔克岛，以及是否袭击据称仍存放着约440公斤近武器级铀的伊朗核储存设施。

They each pose very different challenges. The island is an exposed target, accessible to the U.S. Navy at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. But seizing it means protecting an occupying force from remnants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which could launch strikes from the shore or small boats, or blow up the pipelines that supply the port facilities on the island with Iranian oil. That could require a continuing military presence of exactly the kind that Mr. Trump’s political base has warned against and that Mr. Trump himself said he would never repeat.

这两个目标各自存在截然不同的挑战。哈尔克岛是一个暴露的目标，美国海军可从波斯湾北端轻松抵达。但占领该岛意味着要保护驻军不受伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队残余势力的袭击——这些势力可能从海岸或小艇发动攻击，或炸毁为岛上港口设施输送伊朗石油的管道。这可能需要维持美国的长期军事存在，而这正是特朗普政治基本盘所反对的，也是特朗普本人曾承诺绝不会重蹈的覆辙。

2017年，哈尔克岛港的一处石油码头。若将其占领，特朗普将完全掌控这个伊朗大部分石油出口的起运港。

But if it is successful, Mr. Trump will have full control of the port that most Iranian oil exports originate from — and thus a stranglehold on the country’s economy.

但这项目标一旦成功，特朗普将全面掌控伊朗大部分石油出口的始发港，从而扼住该国经济的咽喉。

The seizure of the nuclear fuel, on the other hand, would be a one-time raid, but even riskier.

相比之下，夺取核燃料虽然是一次性突袭行动，但风险更高。

Most of the uranium enriched to 60 percent — just shy of what is needed to produce nuclear weapons — is stored in deep tunnels in Isfahan, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is in gas form, in canisters that could each fit in the trunk of a car.

据国际原子能机构称，大部分丰度达60%的铀（仅略低于制造核武器所需水平）储存在伊斯法罕的深层隧道中。这些铀以气态形式存在，装在每个都能放进汽车后备箱的容器里。

But the tunnels are hard to get at, especially after the United States bombed the facility last June, collapsing many of the entrances. American and European intelligence agencies, which have been watching the Isfahan plant by satellite, say that while some access has been reopened, they see no evidence that the fuel has been removed. But that does not make it any easier to get at.

但这些隧道难以进入，尤其是美国去年6月轰炸该设施、导致多个入口坍塌之后。一直通过卫星监视伊斯法罕核设施的美国和欧洲情报机构表示，尽管部分通道已重新开放，但没有证据表明核燃料已被转移。然而这并未让进入该设施变得更容易。

Special Operations forces would either have to go in stealthily, and hope to gain quick access, or go in with a huge protective force and spend days or weeks carefully extracting the canisters. There is little room for error: If the canisters were pierced and moisture entered them, the result would be both highly toxic and radioactive. If they were kept too close together, there would be risk of triggering a critical nuclear reaction.

特种部队要么必须秘密潜入，寄望于快速进入；要么必须配备庞大的防护部队，花费数天甚至数周时间小心提取这些燃料容器。几乎没有犯错的余地：如果容器被刺穿、水分进入，将会产生剧毒和放射性物质；如果容器之间放置过近，则有引发临界核反应的风险。

The issue is all the more urgent, American officials say, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is more desperate than ever — and may view keeping the nuclear fuel in Iran as the kind of leverage that could get the United States to back off.

美国官员表示，这一问题愈发紧迫，因为伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队比以往任何时候都更加孤注一掷——他们可能将保留伊朗境内的核燃料视为迫使美国让步的筹码。

“We haven’t made any decision on that,” Mr. Trump said about seizing the material. “We’re nowhere near it,” he said, which suggests that the war may have a long way to go.

“我们还没做出任何决定，”特朗普在谈及夺取核材料时表示。“我们还远远没到那一步，”这表明这场战争可能还有很长的路要走。

Thousands of miles from the attacks in the Middle East, at his company’s headquarters in Toronto, Amar Zaidi confronted what is normally a straightforward logistical task. He needed to ship fabric from a mill in Istanbul to a customer in Shanghai.

在距离中东空袭数千公里之外的多伦多，阿马尔·扎伊迪正在其公司总部面临一项本应简单的物流工作：他需要把一批面料从伊斯坦布尔的工厂运往一位上海客户手中。

But the usual route involved passing through Oman via the Suez Canal — a pathway suddenly fraught with danger. The price of booking a container ship was soaring.

但常规航线需要经苏伊士运河穿过阿曼——这条航道如今突然充满危险。预订集装箱货轮的价格正在暴涨。

Mr. Zaidi’s company, Rebus International, makes yarn and textiles, supplying raw materials to international clothing brands like Calvin Klein and Hugo Boss. Before the war in the Persian Gulf, transporting a container from Turkey to China cost about $2,000, he said. When he tried to book the journey this week, carriers demanded surcharges that multiplied the price to $10,000.

扎伊迪的公司Rebus国际主营纱线与纺织品，为卡尔文·克莱恩、雨果博斯等国际服装品牌供应原材料。他表示，波斯湾战争爆发前，从土耳其向中国运送一个集装箱的运费约为2000美元。而本周他预订航程时，承运商收取的附加费让价格飙升至1万美元。

“It’s chaos,” said Mr. Zaidi, 52, who has worked in the industry for three decades. “It’s the ripple effect. Everything is blamed on the war.”

“一片混乱，”现年52岁、在该行业工作30年的扎伊迪说。“这就是连锁反应。一切问题都被归咎于这场战争。”

Fabric is probably not the first item that springs to mind on the list of cargo waylaid by war. Wildly fluctuating prices for oil and natural gas are the most obvious manifestation, a result of the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the channel linking the Persian Gulf to the rest of the planet.

在各种因战争受阻的货物中，面料或许不是人们第一时间想到的物品。石油与天然气价格剧烈波动才是最直观的表现，这是连接波斯湾与全球各地的霍尔木兹海峡事实上被封锁导致的后果。

But the consequences of upending commerce in much of the Middle East are far broader, and increasingly apparent in industries beyond energy. From industrial commodities to tropical fruits, products needed in one place are getting stuck somewhere else. The longer the hostilities persist, the greater the upheaval for shoppers and businesses throughout the global economy.

但中东大部分商业活动被打乱所带来的影响远不止于此，在能源以外的行业正日益显现。从工业大宗商品到热带水果，一地急需的物资正滞留在另一地。敌对状态持续越久，全球经济中的消费者与企业面临的动荡就越大。

The reverberations amount to a rebuke of the notion that globalization is history, a claim popularized by nationalist movements on multiple continents.

这种连锁效应恰恰驳斥了“全球化已成为历史”的说法——这一论调在各大洲的民族主义运动中甚为流行。

President Trump has pursued a trade war in the name of forcing factory production back to the United States. China and India have pursued versions of self-sufficiency. Yet the war in the Middle East has highlighted the enduring reality of global economic integration. Supply chains are not only intact but expanding, heightening the risks when the movement of goods is interrupted.

特朗普总统以迫使制造业生产回流美国为名发动贸易战。中国与印度也推行了不同形式的自给自足政策。然而，中东战争凸显了全球经济一体化依然根深蒂固的持久现实。供应链不仅完好无损，还在不断扩张，这使得货物运输一旦中断，风险就会随之加剧。

“Every time we get one of these disruptions, we have these predictions that it’s the end of globalization,” said Steven A. Altman, a globalization expert at New York University’s Stern School of Business and co-author of a recent study on the continued expansion of trade and investment across borders. “The narrative is different from the reality.”

“每次出现这样的中断，就有人预言全球化要终结了，”纽约大学斯特恩商学院全球化专家、近期一项关于跨境贸易与投资持续扩张研究的合著者史蒂文·奥尔特曼表示。“叙事与现实并不一致。”

周三，油轮和货轮在霍尔木兹海峡排起长队，这条海峡连接波斯湾与世界其他地区。自冲突爆发以来，该航道基本处于关闭状态。

The turmoil of the Covid-19 pandemic revealed how bottlenecks in shipping can trigger cascading troubles. A floating traffic jam off a port in Southern California strands chemicals needed to make paint in Delaware. It ties up containers that could otherwise be used to load cargo in China, delaying exports of electronics destined for Ireland and pushing up the price of moving cargo everywhere.

新冠疫情的混乱已揭示出航运瓶颈如何引发连锁问题：加州南部港口外的海上拥堵导致特拉华州生产涂料所需的化学品无法运抵；这样的情况使得本可在中国装货的集装箱滞留，从而延误了发往爱尔兰的电子产品出口，并推高全球货运成本。

Such realizations prompted companies to highlight commitments to “supply chain resilience” alongside their usual devotion to efficiency. Retailers like Walmart shifted manufacturing from Asia to Mexico, shrinking the distance between factories and customers to limit their vulnerability to the hazards of global commerce.

这些认识促使企业在一如既往地追求效率之外，还开始强调“供应链韧性”。沃尔玛等零售商将制造业从亚洲转移至墨西哥，缩短工厂与消费者之间的距离，以降低全球贸易风险带来的脆弱性。

But the push toward more regional trade appears to be reversing, according to Mr. Altman’s report.

但奥尔特曼的报告显示，这种向区域贸易靠拢的趋势似乎正在逆转。

From 2020 to 2023, the share of American imports arriving from Mexico and Canada increased to 29 percent, from 26 percent. But over the first nine months of 2025, it dipped to 27 percent.

2020至2023年，美国从墨西哥和加拿大进口商品的占比从26%升至29%。但在2025年前九个月，这一比例回落至27%。

As the pandemic fades into memory, international companies have returned to seeking the lowest-cost suppliers of goods, wherever they may be.

随着疫情逐渐远去，跨国企业重新开始寻找成本最低的供应商，无论这些供应商位于何处。

And as the Trump administration dismantles federal programs aimed at increasing renewable sources of energy like solar and wind power, the nation is more exposed to the implications of higher prices for oil and gas.

与此同时，特朗普政府废除旨在增加太阳能、风能等可再生能源的联邦项目，使美国更易受到油气价格上涨的冲击。

All of which means that the halting of marine traffic through the Persian Gulf is likely to spread dysfunction widely.

这一切都意味着，波斯湾海上运输的中断很可能将混乱扩散至更广范围。

The most immediate crisis centers on energy. Tankers have been attacked. Oil facilities have been shut down. The war has delivered “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency declared on Thursday.

最直接的危机集中在能源领域。油轮遇袭、石油设施关停。国际能源署周四宣布，这场战争造成了“全球石油市场史上最大规模的供应中断”。

Not even the concerted release of oil reserves by 30 nations could prevent the price of oil from again breaching $100 a barrel. The prospect of a sustained increase in energy prices has economists warning of the potential for stagflation, a term coined to describe the impact of shocks in the 1970s: stagnant economic growth and higher prices.

即便30个国家协同释放石油储备，也未能阻止油价再次突破每桶100美元。能源价格持续上涨的前景，让经济学家警告可能出现滞胀——这个词曾被用来形容上世纪70年代石油冲击的后果：经济增长停滞与物价上涨并存。

Higher energy prices make fuel more expensive for trucks, tankers and jets, increasing the costs of moving cargo. Larger bills for gasoline and air-conditioning leave households with less money to spend on goods and experiences — a drag on economic growth.

能源价格上涨导致卡车、油轮和飞机的燃油成本上升，推高货运费用。汽油与空调开支增加，使得家庭可用于消费商品和体验的资金减少，进而拖累经济增长。

Companies that import products into the United States, the world’s largest economy, are grappling with confusion over the future of Mr. Trump’s tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled that he had breached his presidential authority.

向全球最大经济体美国进口商品的企业正陷入困惑：最高法院裁定特朗普超越总统权限后，其关税政策前景尚不明朗。

“We have created equal if not greater uncertainty parameters than during the pandemic,” said Nick Vyas, a supply chain expert at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “It’s a perfect storm for stagflation.”

“我们制造的不确定性因素，即便没有超过疫情期间，也已经与其相当，”南加州大学马歇尔商学院供应链专家尼克·维亚斯表示。“这是一场引发滞胀的完美风暴。”

In Southeast Asia, producers of shrimp and tropical fruits now struggle to transport their wares to Europe and North America. From India to Indiana, farmers are confronting higher prices for fertilizer because of the disruption to stocks produced in the Persian Gulf. The price of aluminum is climbing, given impediments to shipments from Qatar and Bahrain. Helium, a critical element for making computer chips, could soon become scarce.

在东南亚，虾类与热带水果生产商如今难以将产品运往欧洲和北美。从印度到印第安纳州，农民因波斯湾生产的化肥供应中断，从而面临化肥价格上涨。受卡塔尔和巴林航运受阻影响，铝价不断攀升。制造计算机芯片的关键原料氦气也可能很快面临短缺。

“This is not just an oil story,” Mr. Vyas said. “This is an industrial supply story.”

“这不仅仅是石油的问题，”维亚斯说。“这是整个工业供应链的问题。”

越南的热带水果生产商难以获得将产品出口到北美和欧洲的冷藏集装箱。如果海运危机持续下去，中国收获的棉花可能无法按时运抵巴基斯坦，这可能会导致其他地区的纺织企业延迟纱线生产。

The Gulf is a dominant source of urea, the leading form of nitrogen fertilizer. Making it requires ammonia, which is produced with natural gas. So long as energy production is hampered, the ability to make fertilizers will be constrained. Urea prices have already climbed significantly.

海湾地区是尿素的主要供应地，尿素是最主要的氮肥形式。生产尿素需要氨，氨则依赖天然气制造。只要能源生产受阻，化肥生产能力就会受限。尿素价格已大幅上涨。

If farmers economize in their use of fertilizer, that could reduce harvests, diminishing the supply of food and pushing prices higher. In vulnerable countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that could lead to greater malnutrition.

如果农民减少化肥使用，可能导致收成下降、粮食供应减少、价格上涨。在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚的脆弱国家，这可能加剧营养不良问题。

At the center of concern is disruption to shipping lanes and air cargo hubs in the Persian Gulf.

当前最令人担忧的是波斯湾航运通道与航空货运枢纽的中断。

With planes unable to land and refuel at major airports in Dubai and Doha on trips between Europe and Asia, they have had to reroute, often over Central Asia. That has lengthened journeys, requiring more fuel. And that has forced carriers to limit how much cargo they carry.

往返于欧洲与亚洲之间的航班无法在迪拜、多哈等主要机场降落加油，不得不改道，通常需途径中亚。这延长了航程，消耗更多燃油，也迫使航空公司限制货运量。

This is the time of year when major importers tend to negotiate yearlong contracts with ocean carriers. Container shipping prices have been relatively cheap because of a glut of new vessels entering the market. But now ocean carriers are absorbing the likelihood that fuel prices will be significantly higher just as some routes are impeded by the war.

每年这个时候，大型进口商通常会与海运公司协商全年合同。由于大量新船投入市场，集装箱运费此前一直相对低廉。但如今，随着部分航线受战争影响中断，海运公司正在承受燃油价格可能大幅上涨带来的影响。

“It’s certainly just one thing after another in this industry,” said Ryan Petersen, chief executive of Flexport, a global logistics company.

“这个行业真是祸不单行，”全球物流公司Flexport的首席执行官瑞安·彼得森说。

If there is a Chinese analogue to Nero’s fiddling while Rome burned, it is the country’s latest five-year plan.

如果要在中国找一个类似于“罗马焚城时尼禄却在弹琴”的典故，那可能就是该国最新的五年规划。

The policy blueprint — which sets out China’s economic strategy for the years ahead — was approved on Thursday by the National People’s Congress in Beijing. Chapter 15, titled “Vigorously Boosting Consumption,” proclaims that the Chinese consumer is finally going to start earning more and spending more.

这份为国家未来几年的经济战略定调的政策蓝图于周四在北京获得全国人大批准。其中第15章题为“大力提振消费”，宣称中国消费者终于要开始赚得更多、花得更多了。

This promise, which Beijing has been making for more than two decades, matters far beyond China. If Chinese consumers started spending more, it would help reduce the country’s reliance on exports to fuel its economy, a strategy that now floods world markets with Chinese-made goods and creates huge trade surpluses for China and persistent tension with trading partners such as the United States.

这一北京方面已承诺二十余载的愿景，其意义远不止于中国国内。倘若中国消费者真能扩大支出，将有助于降低该国经济对出口的依赖——现行依赖出口的战略导致中国商品充斥全球市场，既为中国创造巨额贸易顺差，也与美国等贸易伙伴持续产生摩擦。

The situation is unlikely to change under the new plan, which mostly doubles down on China’s longstanding approach of prioritizing export-oriented industries and technological development instead of creating a truly consumer-driven economy.

然而，新规划恐怕难以改变这一局面。文件大体上延续了中国长期奉行的方针：优先发展外向型产业和技术，而不是建立一个真正由消费驱动的经济。

Even if Communist Party leaders want to unleash more spending, formidable obstacles stand in the way, including a work force increasingly trapped in insecure, low-wage employment, a rapidly aging and shrinking population and a weak social safety net that encourages people to save for emergencies.

即便中共领导层希望释放更多消费，仍然有许多重大障碍，包括越来越多劳动力陷入收入不稳的低薪就业困境；人口迅速老龄化并持续减少；以及薄弱的社会保障体系，这些都促使人们为了应对不时之需而更多储蓄。

China’s people, perhaps more than at any time in the last few decades, are in no mood to go out and splurge. Many have been airing growing anxiety online, posting about falling incomes and scarce jobs. The average income was just over $500 a month in 2025. Unemployment is high.

此时此刻，中国民众外出大笔消费的意愿或许比过去几十年的任何时候都要低。许多人在网上表达日益增长的焦虑，发帖谈论收入减少、就业困难。2025年，中国人均月收入刚过3600元，失业率居高不下。

A fundamental shift that has taken place in China’s labor market is the root cause of these problems.

中国劳动力市场发生的一项根本性变化是这些问题的根源。

Since the early 2010s, intensifying global economic competition, automation, the pandemic-era closure of countless businesses, slowing economic growth and China’s protracted property slump have all combined to eliminate millions of manufacturing and construction jobs. This has driven countless workers into a growing service sector that requires fewer skills and offers lower pay.

自2010年代初以来，全球经济竞争日益激烈、自动化发展、新冠疫情期间大量企业倒闭、经济增长放缓以及中国持续低迷的房地产市场，这些因素共同作用，导致数以百万计的制造业和建筑业岗位消失。这迫使无数劳动者转向不断扩大的服务业，而这些岗位通常技能要求更低、薪资也更低。

An estimated 200 million people, or at least one-quarter of China’s work force, are now engaged in insecure “gig” employment — delivering meals or packages, driving ride-hailing cars, selling goods online or doing other short-term work. According to a study last year, nearly half of gig workers have little to nothing in the way of a social safety net — which would include health care, a pension, unemployment benefits, maternity benefits and secure housing. The problem is worsened by chronic government underinvestment in social services. On top of that, advances in technology have given companies a precise view of seasonal demand and simplified recruiting, enabling them to hire and fire workers as needed.

据估计，目前有2亿人——至少占中国劳动力的四分之一——从事着不稳定的“零工”工作，比如送外卖或送快递、开网约车、在网上卖货或做其他短期工作。根据去年的一项研究，近一半的零工劳动者几乎没有任何社会保障——包括医疗、养老金、失业救济、生育保险和住房保障。政府在公共服务方面长期投入不足，使问题更加严重。除此之外，技术的进步让公司能够精准把握季节性需求并简化招聘流程，使它们能够根据需要随时雇佣或解雇员工。

Adding to worker insecurity is China’s household registration system, which restricts access to social services like schooling and health care outside one’s hometown. This effectively ensures that people from China’s vast countryside serve as cheap migrant labor for megacities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Reform of the registration system has been discussed for decades, but eliminating it would shift enormous welfare costs onto those cities, which currently reap benefits from migrant labor without shouldering social costs.

中国的户籍制度也进一步加剧了劳动者的不安全感。该制度限制人们在户籍所在地之外获取教育、医疗等社会服务。这实际上是确保了来自广大农村地区的人口为北京、上海、深圳等大城市提供廉价的流动劳动力。关于户籍制度改革的讨论已经持续了几十年，但如果彻底取消这一制度，将把巨额福利成本转移到这些城市身上，而这些城市目前能够在不承担社会成本的情况下享受外来劳动力带来的好处。

These are hardly a foundation for a vibrant consumer economy, and the future is not looking better.

在这样的条件下，很难建立起一个充满活力的消费型经济，而且未来看起来也不容乐观。

The real estate crash, now five years old, has left homeowners paying mortgages on apartments they can’t sell. New families are a key driver of spending on homes, appliances and cars. But China’s people are marrying less frequently and having fewer babies: The population fell for the fourth straight year in 2025, and the fewest babies were born since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Fewer people, of course, means fewer consumers.

这场已持续五年的房地产崩盘让房主们只能继续偿还那些卖不掉的公寓的房贷。新婚家庭是住房、家电和汽车消费的重要推动力。但中国人的结婚率下降，生育率也越来越低：2025年中国人口连续第四年下降，新生儿数量也创下自1949年中华人民共和国成立以来的最低水平。人口减少，自然也意味着消费者减少。

The deeper question may be whether the Chinese Communist Party’s pledges to give consumers more of a role in the economy are real — or are empty promises to placate critics.

更深层的问题或许在于，中国共产党关于让消费者在经济中发挥更大作用的承诺，到底是真心实意，还是为了安抚批评者而开出的空头支票。

Consumer spending in China has hovered at 40 percent or less of China’s G.D.P. for years (compared with more than 65 percent in the United States). The government has introduced policies in recent years to encourage spending, but these typically take the form of rebates and subsidies for appliances, electronics and cars. This increases sales for manufacturers and retailers, but it doesn’t really improve the lot of the average consumer.

多年来，中国居民消费占国内生产总值的比重一直徘徊在40%或以下（相比之下，美国这一比重超过65%）。近年来，政府出台了一些鼓励消费的政策，但这些政策通常采取的形式是对家电、电子产品及汽车提供补贴和返现。这虽然增加了制造商和零售商的销售额，却并没有真正改善普通消费者的处境。

Increasing the role of consumer spending in China’s economy would mean surrendering some state control to the people, something the Communist Party is loath to do.

如果要提高消费在中国经济中的比重，就意味着要将部分国家控制权让渡给民众，而这是中共所不愿做的。

While the United States and Europe typically stimulate spending by putting money in consumers’ hands through tax cuts, direct payments to individuals and families or social safety nets that reduce the need to save for emergencies, China’s government manages the economy primarily through the country’s companies. It directs investment capital to them, grants them subsidies and uses other means to get the business sector to execute the party’s industrial policies.

在美国和欧洲，政府通常通过减税、向个人和家庭直接发放补贴，或者通过完善社会保障体系来减少人们为应对突发情况的储蓄需要，从而刺激消费。而中国政府则主要通过企业来管理经济：将投资资金导向企业、给予它们补贴，并通过其他方式推动企业落实党的产业政策。

Truly meaningful steps to increase the economic role of Chinese consumers would in effect redistribute income to households, leaving less capital for the party to direct toward strategic priorities like developing the tech industry, which Beijing sees as essential to securing the country’s technological self-sufficiency and competing with the United States.

如果要真正提高中国消费者在经济中的作用，实际上就意味着把收入重新分配给家庭，这样一来，党能够用于引导资本投向战略优先领域（例如发展科技产业）的资金就会减少。而北京认为，发展科技产业对于实现技术自给自足以及与美国竞争至关重要。

The success of China’s export machine offers little incentive for the Communist Party to change course and gamble on a new consumer-focused strategy. Trade surpluses may create tension with trading partners, but they earn Beijing massive amounts of hard currency and generate endless headlines about Chinese export dominance in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, ships and many other products. All of this projects an image of Chinese economic strength to audiences at home and overseas.

中国出口机器的成功几乎无法激励共产党改变路线，去冒险尝试以消费者为中心的新战略。贸易顺差固然会与贸易伙伴产生摩擦，但也为北京赚取了大量硬通货，并催生出无数关于中国在电动车、太阳能电池板、电池、船舶及许多其他产品领域占据出口主导地位的新闻头条。所有这些都在国内外观众面前塑造了一种中国经济强大的形象。

China’s government says the new five-year plan will lead to a marked increase in consumer spending. The more likely outcome is business as usual: more low-priced Chinese goods on world markets, more pressure on emerging economies struggling to spur their own development, even fewer Chinese imports of foreign products — and more tension with the rest of the world.

中国政府表示，新的五年计划将促使居民消费支出的显著增长。但更可能出现的结果是一切照旧：世界市场上充斥着更多低价中国商品，新兴经济体推动自身发展的努力面临更大压力，中国从国外进口的商品进一步减少——以及与世界其他国家的紧张关系加剧。

As the price of oil soars to $100 a barrel and countries scramble to limit the fallout of the sudden loss of Middle East fuel, China has two significant advantages over its geopolitical rivals.

随着油价飙升至每桶100美元，各国紧急行动起来，以求平抑中东燃料突然断供所带来的冲击，这期间，中国相对于其地缘政治对手拥有两大显著优势。

Many of its new cars run on electricity. And that electricity is mostly powered by sources at home.

其相当一部分新车采用电力驱动。而且这些电力主要来自国内能源。

China has spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars investing in electric vehicles and renewable energy, a long-term strategy that is paying off as other countries grapple with upheavals in the oil market. Beijing has sought to curb its reliance on foreign energy by expanding domestic supply and accelerating the development of alternative power sources, including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear.

中国几十年来投入数千亿美元发展电动汽车和可再生能源，这一长期战略如今正在开花结果，而其他国家正为石油市场的剧变苦苦挣扎。北京通过扩大国内供给并加速开发包括太阳能、风能、水能和核能的替代能源，努力降低对外国能源的依赖。

Chinese demand for refined oil, gasoline and diesel fell last year, making a second straight annual decline. This has prompted experts to forecast that China’s oil and gas consumption has peaked and that the country is less vulnerable to energy supply disruptions than it once was.

去年，中国对精炼油、汽油和柴油的需求出现下降，这是连续第二年下滑。专家因而预测，中国的石油和天然气消费已达峰值，该国已经不再那么容易受到能源供应中断的影响。

“China has a bit of a buffer and cushion compared to other countries,” said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, an independent research group. “The supply outages and price hikes do not significantly impact the running of its economy.”

“与其他国家相比，中国拥有一定的缓冲空间，”独立研究机构牛津能源研究所中国能源研究负责人米歇尔·梅丹表示。“供应中断和价格上涨不会对其经济运行造成重大影响。”

Oil prices pushed above $100 for the second time in a week amid growing concern that the ongoing fighting will choke traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is a vital trading route for oil and natural gas. World leaders agreed to release a record amount of oil from their emergency reserves and President Trump has backed off penalties on some Russian exports, but fears of supply shortages persisted as a growing number of oil and cargo ships became targets.

由于人们越来越担心持续的冲突将切断霍尔木兹海峡的交通——这条伊朗与阿曼之间的狭窄水道是石油和天然气的重要贸易通道——油价在一周内第二次突破100美元大关。世界各国领导人同意从紧急储备中释放创纪录数量的石油，唐纳德·特朗普总统也放宽了对部分俄罗斯出口的制裁，但随着越来越多油轮和货轮成为攻击目标，对供应短缺的担忧依然挥之不去。

While China imports half of its seaborne crude from the Middle East, Beijing has enough breathing room to avoid the kinds of extreme measures that some Asian countries have already adopted, such as shifting to a four-day workweek or closing universities to conserve energy.

虽然中国一半的海运原油来自中东，但北京有足够的回旋余地，不必像许多亚洲国家那样实施极端的措施，例如改行四天工作制或大学停课，以节约能源。

Over the last few years, China has transitioned the world’s largest automobile market from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles faster than any other major global economy. China sold more electric vehicles in 2025 than the rest of the world combined.

在过去几年里，中国以比其他主要全球经济体更快的速度将全球最大的汽车市场从燃油车转向电动汽车。2025年，中国电动汽车销量超过全球其他地区总和。

Half of the new cars sold in China are electric vehicles or hybrids that run on both electricity and gas. Around one-third of all new heavy-duty trucks are purely electric, according to the latest available data from the China Passenger Car Association.

在中国销售的新车中，一半是电动汽车或油电混合动力车。根据中国乘用车协会最新数据，大约三分之一的新重型卡车为纯电动。

By comparison, in the United States, around 22 percent of new cars sold in 2025 were hybrid or electric vehicles, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Electric vehicle sales plunged over the last few months of the year after a chunky federal tax credit expired.

相比之下，根据美国能源信息署数据，2025年美国新车销量中约22%为混合动力或电动汽车。一项巨额联邦税收抵免到期后，电动汽车销量在当年最后几个月大幅下滑。

A decade ago, China’s leading position in electric cars might have seemed improbable. Sales of gas-guzzling cars were surging and gasoline demand was climbing. But that changed after the government poured $300 billion into a campaign to create homegrown high-tech giants and reduce its foreign dependencies.

十年前，中国在电动汽车领域占据领先地位可能显得不可思议。当时，耗油量大的汽车销量激增，汽油需求持续攀升。但政府投入3000亿美元（约合20000亿元人民币）推动本土高科技巨头崛起并减少对外依赖后，局面发生了变化。

2025年，中国的电动汽车销量超过了世界其他地区的总和，由此创造了全国各地对充电站的需求。

From 2016 to 2022, the Chinese government provided more than $5 billion in direct subsidies to automakers to spur the development of electric vehicles, according to government data. BYD received the largest share and last year overtook Tesla as the world’s top electric vehicle seller.

根据政府数据，从2016年到2022年，中国政府向汽车制造商提供了超过50亿美元（约合344亿元人民币）的直接补贴，以刺激电动汽车发展。比亚迪获得最大份额，并于去年超过特斯拉，成为全球电动汽车销量冠军。

For Beijing, this shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy is rooted in a long-running fixation on addressing China’s energy vulnerabilities.

对北京而言，向电动汽车和可再生能源转型根植于长期以来对中国能源脆弱性的执着关注。

In the 2000s, Chinese leader Hu Jintao was preoccupied with another narrow passageway through which oil traveled to China: the Strait of Malacca. At the time, the waterway that separated Indonesia and Malaysia from Singapore carried 25 percent of global trade.

在2000年代，中国领导人胡锦涛曾格外关注另一条将石油运往中国的狭窄通道：马六甲海峡。当时，这条分隔印尼、马来西亚与新加坡的水道承载着全球25%的贸易。

“It is no exaggeration to say that whoever controls the Strait of Malacca will also have a stranglehold on the energy route of China,” a Chinese state-owned newspaper wrote in 2004.

2004年，一家中国国有报纸写道：“毫不夸张地说，谁控制了马六甲海峡，谁就扼住了中国的能源命脉。”

At the time, China responded by creating emergency petroleum stockpile facilities and investing in renewable energies. Today, among major Asian economies, China is the least affected by disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.

当时，中国通过建立紧急石油储备设施和投资可再生能源作出回应。如今，在主要亚洲经济体中，中国受中东石油和天然气供应中断的影响最小。

China is the world’s largest buyer of oil and gas and relies on coal for a little more than half of its energy needs. Oil and natural gas make up about a quarter. The rest is powered by nuclear and renewable sources like solar, wind and hydro.

中国是全球最大的石油和天然气买家，煤炭满足其略超一半的能源需求。石油和天然气约占四分之一，其余由核能以及太阳能、风能、水能等可再生能源提供。

“China’s push for renewable energy is not motivated by the environment but by the need for energy security and also as a driver of growth,” said Mathias Larsen, senior policy fellow at the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics. “Energy security has always been high on the agenda; it has always been a key motive.”

“中国推动可再生能源并非出于环保考虑，而是出于能源安全需求，同时也作为经济增长的引擎，”伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆研究所高级政策研究员马蒂亚斯·拉森表示。“能源安全始终是重中之重，一直是核心动机。”

While three-quarters of its oil is imported, it has been building up large strategic reserves. In the first two months of the year, China imported 16 percent more oil than in the same period a year earlier.

虽然四分之三的石油依赖进口，但中国一直在大规模积累战略储备。今年前两个月，中国石油进口量同比增加16%。

Two days after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, cheered China’s progress.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击两天后，中共机关报《人民日报》为中国的进步欢呼。

“My country has built the world’s largest renewable energy system,” the paper blared on the front page. The article noted that China had the world’s largest electric vehicle charging network.

该报头版头条高调宣称：“我国建成全球最大的可再生能源体系。”文章指出，中国拥有全球最大的电动汽车充电网络。

But even with these efforts, people in China are not entirely shielded from higher oil prices.

但即便有这些努力，中国民众仍无法完全免受油价上涨的影响。

Many Chinese homes also still rely on imported gas for heating. Chinese factories need petrochemicals to produce raw materials critical to the world’s supply chains, such as polyester for garments and rubber for tires.

许多中国家庭仍依赖进口天然气取暖。中国工厂需要石化产品生产全球供应链关键原材料，例如服装用的聚酯和轮胎用的橡胶。

On Monday, as oil prices skyrocketed toward $120, owners of internal combustion engine cars waited in long lines outside gas stations in dozens of Chinese cities. China’s top economic planning agency increased the retail price of oil by five percent, the biggest increase in four years, bringing the price at the pump to an average of $4.20 per gallon.

周一，当油价飙升逼近120美元时，中国数十个城市的燃油汽车车主在加油站外排起长队。中国最高经济规划机构将零售油价上调5%，创四年最大涨幅，使加油站平均油价达到每升7.96元。

Not long after the move, one woman in the Chinese coastal province of Zhejiang vented her frustration on RedNote, a Chinese social media app, posting a picture of her white Audi A5 filling up at a gas station.

上调后不久，沿海省份浙江的一名女性在中文社交媒体应用“小红书”上发泄不满，贴出了一张自己的白色奥迪A5在加油站加油的照片。

“What used to be called ‘fill up the tank’ is now called ‘pay for the petrol car,’” she wrote. “Every time I step on the gas, it feels like my heart’s bleeding.”

她写道：“以前叫‘加满油’，现在叫‘给油车交钱’。每踩一脚油门，都觉得心在滴血。”

Before the war with Iran started, American military commanders redirected a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. This week, the Pentagon has been moving sophisticated air defenses from Asia to bolster protection against Iran’s drones and rockets.

在与伊朗的战争爆发之前，美军指挥官已将一支航母打击群从南海调往中东。本周，五角大楼一直在转移原部署在亚洲的先进防空系统，以加强针对伊朗无人机和火箭的防护。

The redirected weapons include Patriot missiles and interceptors from the THAAD system in South Korea — the only Asian ally hosting the advanced missile defense system, deployed by the Pentagon to counter North Korea’s growing missile threat. Now, for the first time, its interceptors are being moved away, followed by launchers if the diplomatic and logistical details can be worked out, according to American officials.

被调动的武器包括“爱国者”导弹以及在韩国的“萨德”系统的拦截弹——韩国是亚洲唯一部署这一先进导弹防御系统的盟国，该系统由五角大楼部署，用于应对朝鲜日益增长的导弹威胁。这是其拦截弹首次被调离，美国官员表示，一旦敲定外交和后勤方面的细节，发射器也将转移。

The war in Iran — barely two weeks old — is already straining America’s promise of security in a region that U.S. military leaders have called “our priority theater.” Longer term, officials and analysts suggest the war will weaken American influence, aid Chinese arguments about American decline and accelerate a middle-power arms race.

进行才短短两周的伊朗战争已经开始考验美国在该地区的安全承诺，美军将领曾将该地区称为“我们的首要战区”。从长远来看，官员和分析人士认为，这场战争将削弱美国的影响力，支持中国关于美国衰落的论点，并加速中等强国的军备竞赛。

部署在韩国星州美军基地的萨德系统，摄于周三。

The war’s demands are widening. Australia this week sent aircraft, personnel and a supply of air-to-air missiles to the Middle East. Japan and Taiwan are facing potentially delayed arms deliveries as the United States and its Middle Eastern allies burn at a blistering rate through attacking missiles and defensive interceptors. Pentagon officials told Congress on Tuesday that they estimated the cost of the war had exceeded $11.3 billion in the first six days alone.

战争需求正在扩大。本周，澳大利亚向中东派遣了飞机、人员以及一批空对空导弹。日本和台湾可能面临武器交付延误，因为美国及其在中东的盟友正以极高的速度消耗进攻导弹和防御拦截弹。五角大楼官员周二向国会表示，他们估计仅前六天的战争成本就已超过113亿美元。

American military commanders have told The New York Times that they are worried about the shrinking stockpiles and diversions, which are affecting many regions. In Asia, U.S. allies feel the deficit acutely as they struggle to counter China’s surging military and increasingly aggressive regional maneuvers.

美军将领告诉《纽约时报》，他们担心库存缩减和武器转移，这影响到多个地区。在亚洲，美国盟友对这一短缺感受尤为强烈，因为他们正努力应对中国军力激增以及日益咄咄逼人的地区行动。

President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea told his cabinet on Tuesday that while his government opposed the Pentagon’s relocation of air-defenses, “it is also an undeniable reality that we cannot fully have our way on this matter.”

韩国总统李在明周二在内阁会议上表示，虽然他的政府反对五角大楼转移防空系统，“但我们无法完全按照自己的意愿行事，这也是一个不可否认的现实。”

Asia is drawing three early conclusions about America’s latest conflict.

亚洲正在从美国的最新冲突中得出三个初步结论。

1. Asia is far from the United States’ top priority.

1. 亚洲远非美国的最优先事项。

At a regional security conference in Singapore last year, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stressed that America would stay focused on the region.

去年在新加坡举行的地区安全会议上，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯强调，美国将继续专注于该地区。

“No one should doubt America’s commitment to our Indo-Pacific allies and partners,” he said. “We will continue to wrap our arms around our friends.”

“任何人都不应怀疑美国对印太盟友和伙伴的承诺，”他说。“我们将继续拥抱我们的朋友。”

Now that’s harder for many countries to believe — especially when the Middle East’s needs draw specialty equipment from an ally bordering North Korea, a rogue nuclear power.

现在，许多国家更难相信这一点——尤其是当中东的需求导致与朝鲜——一个持核流氓国家——接壤的盟国的针对性武器被抽调。

上周，德黑兰的储油库遭美以空袭后发生爆炸。

“Moving air defenses out of Korea sends a terrible signal at a time when there are already huge concerns in Seoul about the Trump administration’s shaky commitment to Asia,” said Ely Ratner, a former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs under President Biden.

“首尔本已经对特朗普政府在亚洲承诺上摇摆不定深感担忧，将防空系统调离韩国发出了可怕的信号，”前拜登政府印太安全事务助理国防部长伊利·拉特纳表示。

THAAD batteries (THAAD stands for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) are the apex defenders of the American arsenal. Each battery typically includes several truck-mounted launchers and precise radar systems that can crash interceptors into incoming fire at many altitudes. At least five such systems are in the Middle East. In Asia, THAAD launchers have been deployed to Guam and South Korea.

“萨德”（THAAD，全称为末段高空区域防御系统）是美国武器库中的顶尖防御者。一个萨德防空连通常包括多辆卡车搭载的发射器和精密雷达系统，能够在多种高度将拦截弹撞向来袭目标。中东至少有五套此类系统。在亚洲，“萨德”发射器已部署在关岛和韩国。

Mr. Ratner noted that after the THAAD was installed near Seoul in 2017, China retaliated with boycotts on South Korean products and bans on tourism to the country, arguing the system threatened Chinese security.

拉特纳指出，2017年“萨德”部署在首尔附近后，中国以抵制韩国产品和禁止赴韩旅游作为报复，称该系统威胁中国安全。

“And now,” Mr. Ratner added, “the U.S. is taking it away for a war in the Middle East.”

“而现在，”拉特纳说，“美国却为了中东的一场战争将其撤走。”

2. China will get a boost in influence and confidence.

2. 中国的影响力和信心将得到提升。

Economics and security stressors are intertwined. With oil prices spiking, Asia, a manufacturing powerhouse that gets most of its oil from the Middle East, is especially exposed.

经济和安全压力相互交织。随着油价飙升，作为制造业强国且大部分石油来自中东的亚洲尤为脆弱。

Its stock markets are showing steep declines. Gasoline rationing is hitting U.S. allies like the Philippines especially hard — and that gives Beijing an opening. China can use America’s seeming disregard for the region’s economic pain to argue (even more than usual) that China is the only reliable superpower.

其股市出现大幅下跌。汽油配给制对菲律宾等美国盟友打击尤为严重——这给了北京可乘之机。中国可以利用美国似乎对该地区经济痛苦的漠视，进一步（比以往更有力地）论证中国是唯一可靠的超级大国。

The war has given Chinese state media plenty of fodder for criticizing U.S. foreign policy. The state-run China Daily ran a cartoon on Tuesday that depicts Uncle Sam caught in a thick spider web. “U.S. mired in Middle East,” read the headline.

这场战争为中国官方媒体提供了大量抨击美国外交政策的素材。官方《中国日报》周二刊登了一幅漫画，描绘山姆大叔陷入厚厚的蜘蛛网中。标题为：“美国深陷中东。”

Diplomats in the region worry that the war’s demands give Beijing a freer hand for territorial assertiveness. While it has quieted its military flights around the democratic island of Taiwan, China’s maritime forces have stayed busy there and elsewhere.

该地区的外交官担心，战争需求让北京在领土问题上更加肆无忌惮。虽然中国已减少围绕民主岛屿台湾的军机飞行，但其海上力量在台湾及其他地区仍保持活跃。

中国人民解放军士兵，9月摄于北京。

Late last year, China resumed island-building in the Paracels off Vietnam’s coast in the South China Sea. Satellite imagery from the Open Source Centre showed dredging intensified in recent weeks, with nearly two dozen Chinese ships at Antelope Reef with cranes and construction equipment fashioning a new outpost.

去年底，中国在南海靠近越南海岸线的西沙群岛恢复岛礁建设。开源中心(Open Source Centre)的卫星图像显示，近几周吹填活动加剧，20艘左右的中国船只携带起重机和建筑设备在羚羊礁建造一座新的前哨。

Japan is also in a precarious position, sitting close to Taiwan and occupying islands that China also claims as its own. More than 90 percent of Japan’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. An economic crisis coupled with a military crisis is particularly worrisome to Tokyo.

日本靠近台湾，且占据着中国也声称拥有的岛屿，其处境也十分不妙。日本超过90%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。经济危机叠加军事危机，对东京而言尤为令人担忧。

“That would be a nightmare,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo.

“那将是一场噩梦，”东京笹川和平基金会高级研究员渡部恒雄表示。

“Japan recognizes that anything could happen under Mr. Trump,” he added. “We need to think about a worst-case scenario.”

“日本认识到，在特朗普先生任内，任何事都有可能发生，”他补充道。“我们需要考虑最坏的情况。”

3. Nations can’t rely on America for weapons.

3. 各国不能依赖美国提供武器。

The shifting of weapons and air defenses from the Indo-Pacific has revealed that the American war machine lacks depth, even more than many had expected.

从印太地区转移武器和防空系统暴露了美国战争机器的深度不足，甚至超出许多人的预期。

The military math makes many American partners shudder. Patriot interceptor missiles can cost nearly $4 million each. The United States produced about 600 of them in all of 2025. Some estimates suggest that more than 1,000 have already been used in less than two weeks of war.

这笔军事账让许多美国伙伴感到震惊。“爱国者”拦截导弹每枚成本近400万美元。美国在整个2025年仅生产约600枚。有些估计显示，在不到两周的战争中，已消耗超过1000枚。

The U.S. military has many other assets — American airstrikes are shifting toward cheaper, more plentiful bombs. And a deal made with Lockheed Martin in January aims to triple production of Patriot systems by 2030.

美国军方还有许多其他资产——美军空袭正转向更廉价、更充足的炸弹。今年1月与洛克希德·马丁公司达成的协议旨在到2030年将“爱国者”系统产量提高到原来的三倍。

But in many countries that agreed to increase military spending on American hardware at the urging of the Trump administration, the war in Iran feels like a flashing red light, warning that what they buy may not be delivered anytime soon.

许多国家应特朗普政府敦促增加了购买美国武器的开支，但它们看到，伊朗战争像是一盏闪烁的红灯，警告他们购买的武器可能短期内无法交付。

A Japanese government inquiry found in January that 118 orders for American weapons worth about $7.2 billion had not been delivered at least five years after contracts were signed.

日本政府1月的一项调查发现，价值约72亿美元的118笔美国武器订单在合同签订至少五年后仍未交付。

台湾军方去年在屏东进行了“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统的首次试射。

In Taiwan, there are worries that the war will make a bad situation worse, weakening deterrence from the United States because of munitions shortages, and making it harder for Taiwan’s government to justify a bigger defense budget to buy more American weapons.

在台湾，人们担心战争会让本已糟糕的局面雪上加霜，因弹药短缺削弱美国的威慑力，并使台湾政府更难向民众证明增加国防预算购买更多美国武器的合理性。

“It will inevitably affect shipments,” said Shu Hsiao-huang, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank backed by the defense ministry of Taiwan. “We have already experienced delays.”

“这将不可避免地影响交付，”台湾国防部支持的智库国防安全研究院研究员舒孝煌表示。“我们已经面临延误。”

Many countries will likely race to develop more military industrial capacity. Japan is developing its own long-range missile systems. South Korea secured U.S. approval in October to develop its first nuclear-powered attack submarines, which some experts have described as a step toward building nuclear weapons in the future.

许多国家很可能加速发展自身的军工产能。日本正在开发自己的远程导弹系统。韩国10月获得美国批准开发首艘核动力攻击潜艇，一些专家称这是向未来建造核武器迈出了一步。

Mr. Lee, South Korea’s president, said that the war shows a clear need for more self-reliance.

韩国总统李在明表示，这场战争凸显了加强自力更生的明确需求。

“If we rely on others, there are times when that dependence can collapse,” he said. “You always have to think about what you’re going to do if there’s no external support.”

“如果依赖他人，有时这种依赖会崩塌，”他说。“你必须始终思考，如果没有外部支持，你该怎么办。”

Asked for comment on the region’s concerns, the Pentagon responded with a brief email: “We have nothing to provide.”

当被问及对该地区担忧的评论时，五角大楼以一封简短邮件回复：“我们无可奉告。”

In San Francisco, there was little trace of the online vitriol that had been directed at Eileen Gu for weeks.

在旧金山，数周来针对谷爱琳的网络恶意攻击几乎看不到一丝痕迹。

Ms. Gu, the decorated Olympic freestyle skier, wore a wide smile as she sat atop a red convertible during the annual Chinese New Year parade last weekend, making hand hearts for the crowds, who returned the love to their hometown girl.

上周末，在一年一度的春节大游行中，这位屡获荣誉的奥运自由式滑雪选手笑容灿烂，坐在一辆红色敞篷车上，向人群比心，而民众也热情回应这个家乡的女孩。

Bells clanged. Parade-goers snapped photos. Teenagers tried to run alongside the car.

铃声叮当作响。游行观众纷纷拍照。青少年们跟在车旁奔跑。

“Welcome home, Eileen!” several supporters shouted in unison.

“欢迎回家，爱凌！”几名支持者齐声喊道。

Ordinarily, the celebration would have just been the latest party featuring a triumphant athlete. After all, Ms. Gu won three medals in freestyle skiing during the Winter Olympics last month.

通常情况下，这样的庆典不过是又一场为凯旋运动员举行的欢庆活动。毕竟，谷爱凌在上个月的冬奥会上斩获了三枚自由式滑雪奖牌。

But because she won those medals for China, America’s main geopolitical rival, Ms. Gu has been branded a “traitor” and “ungrateful” by conservatives online. The parade itself drew a new round of criticism for Ms. Gu and, to some degree, San Francisco, a liberal city often mocked by the right.

但由于她是代表中国站上领奖台，而中国是美国主要的地缘政治竞争对手，谷爱凌在网络上被保守派贴上了“叛徒”和“忘恩负义”的标签。这场游行本身也引发了对谷爱凌的新一轮批评，在一定程度上也波及了旧金山这座常被右翼嘲讽的自由派城市。

奥运自由式滑雪名将谷爱凌担任旧金山春节游行大礼官，受到现场观众的热烈欢呼。

The mixed reaction to Ms. Gu stands in contrast to the wider embrace for Alysa Liu, the figure skater who captured American hearts — and the gold medal — with her joyful performance competing for Team U.S.A. Ms. Liu, like Ms. Gu, was born in America, has a Chinese immigrant parent and lives in the Bay Area.

外界对谷爱凌的褒贬不一，与花滑选手刘美贤受到的广泛欢迎形成鲜明对比。刘美贤代表美国队参赛，凭借欢快动人的表现赢得了美国民众的心，并夺得金牌。和谷爱凌一样，刘美贤出生在美国，父母一方是华裔移民，也住在旧金山湾区。

Ms. Liu has been mobbed upon her return, to the point where she recently had to ask fans to give her space after someone chased her to her car. And every ticket has been claimed for a Thursday rally in her hometown, Oakland, where thousands are expected to attend and the event will be broadcast on local television.

刘美贤回国后被粉丝团团围住，甚至有人追到她的车旁，迫使她近日不得不请求粉丝给予私人空间。在她的家乡奥克兰，周四为她举办的欢迎集会门票已全部领完，预计将有数以千计的人参加，活动还将在当地电视台播出。

While Ms. Gu’s decision to compete for China became a lightning rod for the right, the divergent reactions to the two medalists have also spurred conversations among Chinese Americans about what it means to be an American in the current era.

谷爱凌代表中国参赛的决定成为右翼攻击的焦点，而两位奖牌得主所受待遇的巨大差异也在美国华裔群体中引发讨论：在当下这个时代，身为美国人究竟意味着什么。

Immigrants and their descendants have long tried to maintain connections to their heritage, no matter their family’s nation of origin, balancing those ties with pressures to assimilate and forge their own identities. For some Chinese Americans and scholars of Asian American history, the criticism of Ms. Gu has been deeply unsettling.

长期以来，移民及其后代无论来自哪个国家，都试图维系与祖籍文化的联系，在这些纽带与同化压力和塑造自我身份之间寻找平衡。对一些美国华裔和研究亚裔美国人历史的学者而言，针对谷爱凌的批评令人深感不安。

In a sports world where it is not uncommon for American athletes to compete for other countries, the intense focus on Ms. Gu reflects a view of Americanness that seems to offer little space for those who might have natural affinities for cultures or countries outside of the United States — especially when that country happens to be a geopolitical competitor like China.

在体坛，美国运动员代表其他国家参赛并不罕见，但对谷爱凌的高度关注反映出一种对美国人身份的理解，它几乎不给那些对美国以外文化或国家怀有天然亲近感的人留出空间——尤其是当这个国家恰好是中国这样的地缘政治竞争对手时。

In more than a dozen interviews, many Chinese Americans said they had ties to China and Chinese culture similar to those of Ms. Gu. She was raised by her mother and her maternal grandmother, both immigrants from China. She grew up visiting relatives in China. And she speaks Mandarin Chinese fluently — with a Beijing accent.

在十多次采访中，许多美国华裔表示，他们与中国和中国文化的联系与谷爱凌相似。她由母亲和姥姥抚养长大，两人都是来自中国的移民；她从小就常回中国探亲；能说一口流利的普通话，还带着北京口音。

谷爱凌上月代表中国参加冬奥会时，在自由式滑雪项目中斩获三枚奖牌。

Ms. Gu has said that she chose to represent China because she could inspire more young people there. While many Chinese Americans said they might not have made the same decision, they felt that competing for China seemed like a logical extension of her identity and did not make her any less of an American. And wasn’t part of being an American having the freedom of choice, anyway?

谷爱凌曾表示，她选择代表中国是因为这能激励更多中国年轻人。许多美国华裔说，他们或许不会做出同样的选择，但认为代表中国参赛是她身份认同的合理延伸，并不会让她变得不美国。更何况，拥有选择的自由不正是美国人精神的一部分吗？

“She is representing her background,” said Justin Chi, 36, a software engineer who grew up in Southern California.

“她只是在展现自己的背景，”36岁、在南加州长大的软件工程师贾斯汀·迟（音）说。

Kevin Leung, 51, an accountant in the Bay Area, saw a different motivation behind Ms. Gu’s decision, pointing to the millions of dollars she has made in sponsorships from Chinese companies and the Chinese government. Which, in some sense, he suggested, was also quintessentially American.

51岁的湾区会计师凯文·梁（音）则认为谷爱凌的决定背后有另一种动机：她从中国企业和中国政府那里获得了成百上千万美元的赞助收入。他表示，从某种意义上说，这同样是非常典型的美国做法。

“It’s her way to make money,” Mr. Leung said. “It’s capitalist.”

“这是她赚钱的方式，”凯文·梁说。“这就是资本主义。”

America has undergone vast demographic shifts in the past quarter-century. One in four children in America has at least one immigrant parent, compared with 13 percent about 25 years ago, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a research center in Washington.

过去25年间，美国人口结构发生了巨大变化。华盛顿研究机构移民政策研究所的数据显示，如今美国每四名儿童中就有一人至少有一位移民父母，约25年前，这一比例为13%。

In California, straddling cultures and countries is even more normal. The state is home to more than one-fifth of the country’s immigrants. Nearly half of children have an immigrant parent.

在加州，跨文化、跨国家的现象更为普遍。该州聚集了全美超过五分之一的移民人口，近一半儿童有移民父母。

Having a transnational identity is especially common among Chinese people, who constitute the largest Asian group in the country. And it is particularly resonant in the Bay Area, where Ms. Gu grew up and now resides as an undergraduate at Stanford University. While there are fifth-generation Chinese Americans in the Bay Area, there are also parts of San Francisco’s Chinatown where as many as 4 in 5 people were born abroad.

跨国身份认同在华裔群体中尤为普遍，华裔是美国最大的亚裔族群。这种现象在旧金山湾区尤为显著，谷爱凌正是在此成长，现就读于斯坦福大学本科。湾区有第五代华裔美国人，然而在旧金山唐人街这样的区，高达五分之四的居民出生于海外。

The city and its surrounding region have long been a hub for “astronaut families,” in which at least one parent shuttles back and forth to a job in Asia. Some second-generation Chinese Americans grew up visiting family and relatives in Asia each year.

旧金山及其周边地区长期以来都是“太空人家庭”的聚集地——父母中至少一方往返亚洲工作。一些二代华裔美国人从小每年都会回亚洲探亲。

美国花样滑冰运动员刘美贤在冬奥会上为美国赢得金牌，受到美国民众的广泛拥戴。她将于周四在加州奥克兰市举行的集会上接受庆祝。

Ms. Gu has often said, “When I’m in the U.S., I’m American, but when I’m in China, I’m Chinese.” Many people can relate.

谷爱凌常说：“我在美国时是美国人，在中国时是中国人。”很多人对此深有共鸣。

“It’s a feeling of not fully belonging in either place,” said Cleo Cao, 25, a tech consultant in the Bay Area who was among the thousands who attended the San Francisco parade.

“这是一种对两边都不完全归属的感觉，”25岁的湾区科技顾问克莱奥·曹（音）说，她是参加旧金山游行的数千人之一。

But plenty of Chinese Americans have criticized Ms. Gu’s decision to represent China, as well. They say that loyalty to America should come first, regardless of cultural affinities. They agree with Vice President JD Vance, who said that athletes who benefit from American education and freedoms should represent the United States.

但也有不少华裔美国人批评谷爱凌代表中国参赛的决定。他们认为，无论文化上有什么样的亲近感，对美国的忠诚都应放在首位。他们赞同副总统万斯的观点：受益于美国教育与自由的运动员，就应该代表美国。

Some in particular have highlighted Ms. Gu’s evasiveness in response to questions about the Chinese government’s human rights abuses and internet censorship, in contrast to her public comments on anti-Asian hate and racial justice in America.

有些人特别指出，谷爱凌在回答有关中国政府侵犯人权和网络审查的问题时报以回避态度，这与她在美国反亚裔仇恨和种族正义问题上的公开言论形成鲜明对比。

She also has consistently dodged questions about her nationality. China requires that its athletes hold a Chinese passport but it doesn’t allow dual citizenship.

她也一直回避有关国籍的问题。中国要求本国运动员持有中国护照，但不承认双重国籍。

“I don’t deny the sincerity of her connection with China,” said Xiao Qiang, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and a human-rights activist. “But I still find her actions troubling.”

“我不否认她与中国之间情感的真诚，”加州大学伯克利分校教授、人权活动家萧强说。“但我依然认为她的行为令人不安。”

Ms. Gu did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

谷爱凌没有回应多次置评请求。

For decades after the normalization of U.S.-China relations in 1979, ethnic Chinese scientists, businesspeople and athletes were celebrated by American leaders and universities as bridge builders. But over the last decade, as the U.S.-China relationship has grown frostier, those cultural and educational ties have frayed.

自1979年中美关系正常化后的几十年里，华裔科学家、商界人士和运动员曾被美国政界与高校誉为两国之间的桥梁建设者。但在过去十年，随着中美关系趋冷，这些文化与教育纽带逐渐磨损。

It did not go unnoticed by Chinese Americans that Zoe Atkin, another American-born Stanford student, won a bronze medal in freestyle skiing for Great Britain last month but did not attract the same rancor that Ms. Gu did.

美国华裔注意到一个现象：同样出生在美国、就读斯坦福大学的佐伊·阿特金上月代表英国获得自由式滑雪铜牌，却没有像谷爱凌那样招致如此激烈的敌意。

“This is another opportunity to attack China,” said Gordon H. Chang, a historian at Stanford University. “It’s more about Sinophobia than it is about Gu.”

“这不过是又一个攻击中国的机会，”斯坦福大学历史学家张少书说。“与其说与谷爱凌有关，不如说是和排华情绪有关。”

Back in San Francisco, the honor shown to Ms. Gu in the historic Chinese New Year parade carried a deeper symbolism, said Ellen Wu, an associate professor of history at Indiana University.

印第安纳大学历史学副教授艾伦·吴（音）指出，在旧金山历史悠久的春节游行中，对谷爱凌的礼遇有着更深层的象征意义。

More than 70 years ago, as the Red Scare was taking hold, the Chinatown organizers of the parade appointed a Chinese American combat veteran as the grand marshal and put up anti-Communist signs in an effort to display their sacrifices for the United States and combat suspicions of disloyalty.

70多年前，红色恐慌盛行之时，唐人街的游行组织者曾任命一位华裔参战老兵担任大游行司仪，并悬挂反共标语，以此彰显他们为美国做出的牺牲，消除外界对他们不忠的怀疑。

Generations later, Ms. Gu and her mother, Yan Gu, stepped forward on Saturday night to light the ceremonial firecrackers, kicking off the parade. Local politicians, including Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, then watched the procession from the grandstand. At the end of the route, Mayor Daniel Lurie helped Ms. Gu light more firecrackers.

几代人之后，上周六的晚上，谷爱凌和她的母亲谷燕登台点燃仪式性的鞭炮，为游行揭幕。包括前众议院议长南希·佩洛西在内的当地政界人士在观礼台上观看了游行。在游行终点，市长丹尼尔·卢里协助谷爱凌点燃了更多鞭炮。

“It doesn’t matter if you’re undocumented, or a political asylum seeker, or a student, or a foreign citizen. We don’t care,” said David Ho, who advises the Chinese Chamber of Commerce, which organizes the parade. “This is a Chinese New Year parade. Everyone needs to check their citizenship at the door.”

“无论你是无证移民、政治避难者、学生，还是外国公民，我们都不在乎，”为组织游行的中国商会担任顾问的戴维·何说。“这是春节大游行。所有人进场时都得把国籍身份抛开。”

Two oil tankers were attacked and left burning off the Iraqi coast on Thursday, the latest in a series of strikes during the Middle East war that have crippled the global energy sector.

周四，两艘油轮在伊拉克海岸附近遭到袭击并起火燃烧。这是中东战争期间一系列袭击中的最新一起，这些袭击已经严重冲击了全球能源行业。

Iran has taken responsibility for several of the strikes on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil output normally flows. Tehran has said that it would not allow oil shipments that benefit the United States and its allies to pass through the strait.

伊朗对波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡发生的多起商船遇袭事件负责。正常情况下，全球五分之一的石油产量经由此处运输。德黑兰表示，不会允许那些惠及美国及其盟友的石油运输通过该海峡。

Oil prices have surged to trade around $100 per barrel, forcing dozens of countries to release emergency reserves to stabilize their economies.

油价已飙升至每桶100美元左右，迫使数十个国家释放紧急石油储备以稳定经济。

The strikes on shipping have given Iran a strategic success, putting economic pressure on the United States and its allies even as Iran is under heavy attack. Tehran’s actions have also raised questions about whether the United States planned for a lengthy shutdown of the strait.

针对航运的袭击为伊朗带来了一项战略成果：即使在其自身遭受重创之际，仍对美国及其盟友施加了经济压力。德黑兰的行动也引发了疑问：美国是否为霍尔木兹海峡的长期关闭做好了准备。

“The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used,” said Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader.

“封锁霍尔木兹海峡这一杠杆必须继续加以运用，”伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊说。

What’s the latest?

最新情况如何？

On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility for attacking one of the two tankers off Iraq’s coast, saying the Marshall Islands-flagged ship had “disobeyed and ignored” warnings.

周四，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队声称对伊拉克海岸外两艘油轮中其中一艘的袭击负责，并表示这艘悬挂马绍尔群岛国旗的船只“违抗并无视”警告。

周四，两艘油轮在伊拉克附近海域起火，图为其中一艘。

A British naval monitoring group said that a third ship was struck by an unknown projectile near Dubai. Security concerns on Thursday also forced the closure of oil export terminals in Iraq and Oman.

英国的一个海事安全监测机构表示，还有第三艘船在迪拜附近被一枚不明射弹击中。周四的安全担忧还迫使伊拉克和阿曼的石油出口码头关闭。

In all, more than a dozen shipping vessels have been struck since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February.

自2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，已有超过十艘航运船只遭到袭击。

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

为何霍尔木兹海峡如此重要？

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the broader Indian Ocean. It is the only sea route that can move oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s coastline runs along both the strait and the gulf.

霍尔木兹海峡是一条具有战略意义的水道，连接波斯湾与阿曼湾以及更广阔的印度洋。它是将石油、天然气和其他货物从波斯湾运往外界的唯一海上通道。伊朗的海岸线沿着霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾延伸。

At the strait’s narrowest point — between Iran to the north and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula to the south — the navigable channel is about two miles wide each for inbound and outbound traffic, according to the International Energy Agency.

根据国际能源署的数据，在海峡最狭窄处——北侧是伊朗，南侧是阿曼的穆桑代姆半岛——进出航道的宽度各约3.2公里。

In normal times, about 20 percent of global oil and liquid natural gas passes through the strait. Most of the fossil fuels are bound for Asia, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea.

在正常情况下，全球约20%的石油和液化天然气经过该海峡。大部分化石燃料运往亚洲，特别是中国、印度、日本和韩国。

穿越海峡的油气运输船舶航线。注：包括自1月1日至3月2日所有油轮和天然气运输船。来源：Kpler。

Other large vessels also normally go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. Crucial industrial goods — including helium from Qatar, fertilizer from Oman and Saudi Arabia and plastic feedstocks from Saudi Arabia and Emirati petrochemical plants — also travel through Hormuz.

除了能源运输外，其他大型船只通常也会经过这条海峡，包括汽车运输船和集装箱船。一些关键工业产品——例如卡塔尔的氦气、阿曼和沙特的化肥，以及来自沙特和阿联酋石化厂的塑料原料——也通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。

How is Iran choking off traffic?

伊朗是如何“掐住”航道通行的？

Iran’s military currently has a strategic advantage in the Persian Gulf and the strait, with the ability to threaten shipping traffic, even after much of its navy has been destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes.

伊朗军队目前在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡拥有战略优势，有能力威胁航运交通——即便其海军大部分力量已被美以空袭摧毁。

周三，一艘阿联酋海军舰艇在霍尔木兹海峡为货船和油轮护航。

Projectiles: Since the war began, at least a dozen cargo vessels and oil tankers have been hit in the Gulf and the strait. Iran has taken responsibility for several of them. It’s not entirely clear what type of weapons it used, but Iran’s military has deployed a wide array of missiles and drones during the conflict.

射弹：自战争爆发以来，至少十余艘货船和油轮在海湾及海峡地区遭袭。伊朗已对其中多起袭击负责。目前尚不完全清楚其使用的武器类型，但伊朗军队在冲突中动用了种类繁多的导弹和无人机。

Mines: The next stage of the fighting may involve naval mines, explosives that are often no bigger than a beach ball which can still sink large vessels. On Thursday, Iran started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials.

水雷：
战斗的下一阶段可能涉及水雷。这些爆炸装置往往只有沙滩球大小，却足以击沉大型船只。美国官员表示，伊朗周四已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷。

The U.S. has destroyed dozens of larger Iranian mine-laying vessels, but Iran used smaller boats — of which the I.R.G.C. has hundreds, if not thousands — for the mining operation, a U.S. official said.

美国此前摧毁了数十艘较大的伊朗布雷舰，但一名美国官员表示，伊朗在此次布雷行动中使用的是更小型的船只——伊斯兰革命卫队拥有数百甚至上千艘这种船。

On Thursday, the U.S. military said it had damaged or destroyed over 30 mine-laying vessels since the war began. It is not clear whether any Iranian mines have actually been deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.

周四，美军方表示自开战以来已击毁或击沉超过30艘伊朗布雷船。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否真的已经在霍尔木兹海峡布设了水雷。

Insurance: After a relatively small number of strikes, the cost of insuring a vessel to go through the strait has soared, making it prohibitively expensive. President Trump has said the U.S. government may provide affordable insurance coverage, but experts are dubious. One analyst estimated the potential cost could be more than $300 billion.

保险：在发生几次袭击之后，通过该海峡航行的船舶保险费已经大幅上涨，高到几乎难以承受。特朗普总统表示，美国政府可能会提供较为低廉的保险保障，但专家对此持怀疑态度。有分析师估计，潜在成本可能超过3000亿美元。

Iran’s own tankers: For years, the common wisdom among military analysts was that Iran would not close the strait because it needed to export its own oil. But shipping analysts say that in recent days, Iran has been loading oil and exporting it through the strait, letting its own ships through even as it threatens and attacks others.

伊朗自己的油轮：多年来，军事分析界普遍认为伊朗不会封锁该海峡，因为它自身也需要通过这里出口石油。但航运分析人士表示，最近几天伊朗仍在装载石油并通过海峡出口，让本国船只通行的同时，却威胁、袭击他国船只。

Since March 1, at least 10 tankers and gas carriers have left Iran and transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a shipping analysis firm.

据航运分析公司劳氏海事数据，自3月1日以来，至少10艘油轮和液化气船离开伊朗并穿越了霍尔木兹海峡。

How is it affecting energy prices around the world?

这对全球能源价格造成了什么影响？

The war in the Middle East has caused the “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

国际能源署周四表示，中东战争已造成“全球石油市场历史上最严重的供应中断”。

In the United States, gasoline prices rose by about 20 percent. In Europe, the price of natural gas surged more than 43 percent, and diesel prices doubled. Asia, which receives roughly 70 percent of all crude shipped through Hormuz, absorbed the worst of the supply shock, forcing countries like Pakistan to move to a four-day workweek to conserve fuel.

在美国，汽油价格上涨了大约20%。在欧洲，天然气价格飙升超过43%，柴油价格翻了一番。亚洲承受了最严重的供应冲击——大约70%通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油都流向亚洲，这迫使像巴基斯坦这样的国家实行每周四天工作制，以节约燃料。

In response, the 32 member states of the I.E.A. agreed this week to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, the most ever. But the move did not bring oil prices down: The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed briefly back above $100 a barrel on Thursday, about $30 higher than it was before the war began.

作为回应，国际能源署32个成员国本周同意从战略储备中释放4亿桶石油，规模为历史之最。但这一举措并没有让油价下降：全球基准布伦特原油价格周四短暂回升至每桶100美元上方，较战前高出约30美元。

Higher energy prices have rippled across the global economy, stoking inflation and threatening countries around the world.

能源价格上涨的涟漪效应波及全球经济，加剧通货膨胀，并给世界各国造成威胁。

Mr. Trump has touted the “energy dominance” of the United States, which is the world’s biggest oil producer. But oil is a globally priced commodity, so higher crude prices translate into higher prices at U.S. gas stations, regardless of how much oil the U.S. produces domestically.

特朗普一直强调美国的“能源主导地位”，因为美国是世界最大的石油生产国。但石油是一种全球定价的商品，因此无论美国国内生产多少石油，原油价格上涨都会转化为美国加油站油价的攀升。

Bombs are exploding in Iran and the Middle East, but the fallout is rattling households and businesses in neighborhoods all over the globe.

炸弹在伊朗和中东地区爆炸，但其后果正冲击着全球各地的家庭和企业。

In Kansas, home buyers saw 30-year mortgage rates edge above 6 percent this week. In Western India, families mourning the death of a loved one discovered that gas-fired crematories had been temporarily closed.

在堪萨斯州，购房者看到30年期抵押贷款利率本周突破了6%。在印度西部，悼念亲人的家属发现，使用燃气焚化炉的火葬场暂时关闭。

In Hanoi, Vietnam, gas station owners posted “sold out” signs. In Kenya, tea growers and traders worried their exports to Iran would rot on the dock. And across the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Mexico, farmers blanched at the surge in fertilizer costs.

在越南河内，加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。在肯尼亚，茶叶种植者和贸易商担心，他们出口到伊朗的货物会烂在码头上。而在美国、加拿大、欧洲、英国和墨西哥，化肥成本的飙升让农民们大惊失色。

The widening war in Iran has delivered a stunning punch to a worldwide economy that has already been walloped by a breakdown of the international trading order, war in Ukraine and President Trump’s chaotic policymaking.

全球经济本已因国际贸易秩序崩溃、乌克兰战争以及特朗普总统混乱的政策制定而备受冲击，这场愈演愈烈的伊朗战争成为又一次沉重的打击。

“This really is the big one,” David Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and U.S. Energy Department official, said of the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important choke point for oil. It is the emergency scenario everyone feared, he said.

“这可是个大问题了，”前美国外交官、美国能源部官员大卫·戈德温在谈到霍尔木兹海峡关闭时表示，那是全球最重要的石油输运咽喉。他说，这是每个人都担心的危急情况。

肯尼亚的茶叶种植者，那里的贸易商担心他们的出口产品无法到达目的地。

Cargo deliveries have been stranded, shipping charges have increased and insurance premiums have skyrocketed. Yes, the price of gas at the pump is affected. But so is the price of food, medicine, airplane tickets, electricity, cooking oil, semiconductors and more.

货物运输陷入停滞，航运费用增加，保险费也随之飙升。是的，加油站的汽油价格受到了影响，但食品、药品、飞机票、电力、食用油、半导体等等的价格同样如此。

A drawn-out war between the United States and Iran could have “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil market and the global economy, Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil and gas company, warned this week.

全球最大石油和天然气公司沙特阿美的首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔本周警告称，美国与伊朗之间长期的战争可能给世界石油市场和全球经济带来“灾难性后果”。

Yet even if the war, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel struck Iran, wraps up relatively quickly, this latest upheaval is sending consumers, workers and employers on another unnerving and unpredictable ride.

然而，即便始于2月28日美以袭击伊朗的战争能相对较快地结束，这场最新的动荡也正将消费者、工人、雇主推入又一个令人不安且不可预测的境地。

It’s not just that small business owners and corporate executives must once again re-evaluate their supply chains, manage additional price increases and track shifting restrictions on who they can do business with. Or that the added uncertainty undermines confidence, making consumers reluctant to spend and businesses reluctant to invest.

这不仅仅是因为小企业主和企业高管必须再次重新评估其供应链，应对额外的价格上涨，并跟踪针对贸易对象不断变化的限制措施；也不仅仅是因为不确定性的增加削弱了信心，使消费者不愿支出，企业不愿投资。

It’s that this remapping of power dynamics in the Middle East could set off a string of consequences whose full force might not be known for months or years.

而是因为这种中东权力格局的重构可能会引发一系列连锁反应，其全面影响可能在数月或数年后才会显现。

Meg Jacobs, the author of “Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s,” pointed out that prices didn’t immediately go back down after the oil embargo in 1973 and 1974. They remained high for the rest of the decade.

《加油站恐慌：能源危机与20世纪70年代美国政治转型》(Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s)一书的作者梅格·雅各布斯指出，在1973年和1974年的石油禁运之后，物价并未立即回落，而是在那十年的余下时间里一直处于高位。

The supply situation is completely different today, with many more producers, Ms. Jacobs emphasized. But the crisis that the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries created with its embargo set off a chain of events that these oil producers never envisioned.

雅各布斯强调，今天的供应状况已完全不同，生产商要多得多。但阿拉伯石油输出国组织通过禁运创造的危机，引发了一系列这些石油生产商从未预料到的事件。

越南加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。

The oil shock prompted other countries, most significantly the United States, to conserve energy and develop fuel-efficient cars and their own oil and natural gas industries. Ultimately, the Arab countries’ monopolistic stranglehold was broken. Oil prices ended up collapsing in 1986.

石油危机促使其他国家（最显著的是美国）节约能源，开发燃油效率高的汽车，并发展自己的石油和天然气工业。最终，阿拉伯国家的垄断性钳制被打破，石油价格最终在1986年崩盘。

Today’s actions in Iran and the surrounding region may similarly have consequences that are both unexpected and far-reaching.

今天在伊朗及周边地区的行动可能同样会产生出人意料的深远影响。

Ms. Jacobs, for example, pointed to the likelihood of an emboldened and strengthened Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. This week Mr. Trump eased some of the restrictions on Russian oil exports that had been imposed to pressure Mr. Putin over the war in Ukraine.

例如，雅各布斯指出，俄罗斯总统普京可能会因此变得更加大胆，力量也得到增强。本周，特朗普放宽了对俄罗斯石油出口的部分限制，这些限制此前是为了在乌克兰战争问题上向普京施压而实施的。

Higher oil prices will boost Russia’s beleaguered economy and war machine. And Mr. Putin has taken the opportunity to taunt European leaders who supported sanctions on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

走高的油价将提振俄罗斯陷入困境的经济和战争机器。普京也借此机会嘲讽了那些在乌克兰战争爆发后支持对俄能源制裁的欧洲领导人。

The crisis is also a potent reminder of the persistent vulnerabilities around critical supply chains. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine caused national leaders all over the world to talk about the need to prioritize resilience and security.

这场危机还敲响了警钟，提醒人们关键供应链依然存在持续的脆弱性。新冠肺炎疫情和乌克兰战争曾促使世界各地的国家领导人讨论优先考虑韧性和安全的必要性。

The U.S.- Israeli war in Iran, though, once again highlights how disruptions in the global trading system can still inflict severe economic pain.

然而，美以在伊朗进行的战争再次凸显了全球贸易体系的紊乱仍能造成严重的经济创伤。

西班牙和其他国家的农民正努力应对化肥成本的飙升。

Europeans only recently dug out of their deep dependency on Russian gas and oil. For them, the timing of this energy squeeze could hardly be worse. Producers, still reeling from the impact of the tariffs, must now contend with higher energy costs. That will be a blow to countries like Germany with large, energy-hungry chemical, pharmaceutical and auto industries.

欧洲人直到最近才摆脱对俄罗斯天然气和石油的深度依赖。对他们来说，这次能源紧缩正值一个不能更糟的时刻。仍在承受关税冲击的生产商现在必须应对更高的能源成本。这对德国等拥有大型、高能耗化工、制药和汽车行业的国家将是一个打击。

With gas storage at low levels, there’s also likely to be some “panic refilling” in Europe that could push against price drops over the next six months or so, Mr. Goldwyn, the former energy department official, said.

前能源部官员戈德温表示，由于天然气储量处于低水平，欧洲可能会出现某种“恐慌性补库存”，这可能会阻碍未来六个月左右的价格下跌。

Rising oil prices do have the potential to increase interest in alternative energy sources like solar, wind and nuclear power, Mr. Goldwyn added.

戈德温还说，油价上涨确实有可能增加人们对太阳能、风能和核能等替代能源的兴趣。

Political support, though, is critical to developing any of these resources. And at least in the United States, Mr. Trump’s hostility to renewable energy remains fierce.

然而，政治支持对于开发任何此类资源都至关重要。至少在美国，特朗普对可再生能源的敌意依然强烈。

Asian economies are even more exposed. They, too, are dependent on energy imports. In addition, poor and middle-income countries are subject to the vagaries of currency exchange rates. And when the dollar or euro strengthens, all their imports suddenly become more expensive.

亚洲经济体面临的风险甚至更大。他们同样依赖能源进口。此外，贫困和中等收入国家还受制于汇率的反复无常。当美元或欧元走强时，他们所有的进口商品突然间都会变得更加昂贵。

Central bankers around the world face a difficult combination of circumstances. The United States has a stronger economy than many other countries. Nonetheless, its Federal Reserve confronts the same questions that are confounding other central bankers. Do they raise interest rates to head off a revival of inflation as energy prices spike, or lower rates as labor markets are weakening and growth is slowing?

全球各地央行面临着极其复杂的处境。美国的经济比许多其他国家都要强。尽管如此，美联储也面临着令其他央行行长困惑的同样问题：是该在能源价格飙升时加息以遏制通胀复苏，还是在劳动力市场疲软、增长放缓时降息？

Elevated rates will also keep borrowing costs high at a time when rich and poor countries are facing record levels of debt. That means more money that might have been used for health care, roads, housing or education instead will go to interest payments on debt.

持续的高利率也将使借贷成本维持在高位，而此时无论贫富国家都面临着创纪录的债务水平。这意味着本可以用于医疗、道路、住房或教育的更多资金将转而用于支付债务利息。

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at the Dutch bank ING, noted that tech companies, especially those specializing in artificial intelligence, are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. A small handful of these companies have been the main drivers of growth in the U.S. economy — not to mention lofty stock valuations. “It could lead to the sharp correction in stock markets,” he said.

荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基指出，科技公司，尤其是那些专注于人工智能的公司，对利率变化高度敏感。少数几家此类公司一直是美国经济增长的主要驱动力，更不用说高昂的股票估值了。“这可能导致股市出现剧烈调整，”他说。

Mr. Trump’s rationale for the attacks and his objectives have shifted from one day to the next. But the decision to wage war on Iran undercuts the recently popular idea that the world was neatly breaking down into great power spheres of influence.

特朗普对攻击伊朗给出的理由及其目标每天都在变化。但发动对伊战争的决定削弱了近期流行的观点——即世界正在整齐地划分为大国势力范围。

Mr. Trump’s toppling of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, seizure of its oil and declaration of a “Donroe Doctrine” staked a claim for hegemony in North and South America.

特朗普推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗、夺取该国石油并宣告“唐罗主义”的到来，体现了他在南北美洲建立霸权的野心。

But the war in Iran shows that Mr. Trump still sees the United States as a superpower with global reach and global interests. And that he is willing to use military force to achieve both political and economic aims.

但伊朗战争表明，特朗普仍将美国视为拥有全球影响力且涉及全球利益的超级大国。而且他愿意利用武力手段来达成政治和经济双重目的。

“And that matters for the economy,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, as Washington moves to increasingly direct the flow of goods, services and money around the globe.

“这对经济至关重要，”凯投宏观集团(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔·希尔林表示，因为华盛顿正日益加强对全球商品、服务和资金流动的直接管控。

Since China’s leader, Xi Jinping, rose to power more than a decade ago, the ruling Communist Party has worked aggressively to make ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, Tibet and elsewhere in the country identify first and foremost as patriotic citizens.

自中国领导人习近平十多年前上台以来，执政的共产党一直积极致力于推动新疆、西藏及国内其他地区的少数民族首先将自己认同为爱国公民。

Now, this campaign of assimilation has been codified into an expansive new law that makes “ethnic unity” the responsibility of all of society, including every level of the government, business owners and parents.

如今，这场同化运动已被纳入一项内容广泛的新法律，将“民族团结”确立为全社会的责任，将各级政府、企业主和父母都包括在内。

The law, which was approved at the close of China’s legislative meeting on Thursday, has wide-ranging provisions that touch on education, housing policy, entertainment and other areas. It embodies Mr. Xi’s mission to forge a single national identity molded by the party — seen as a way to protect Beijing’s rule from threats at home and abroad.

该法律于周四在中国立法会议结束时通过，其条款范围广泛，涉及教育、住房政策、娱乐及其他领域。它承载了习近平构建由党打造单一国家认同的使命，被视为保护北京统治，抵御国内外威胁的手段。

While Beijing says the law will protect the traditions of all officially recognized 56 ethnic groups, a main focus appears to be assimilating minority residents into the culture of the Han Chinese, who are the majority. It orders that Mandarin Chinese be the language of instruction in schools and in official communication. (In government communication when both languages are used, Mandarin should be used first and displayed more prominently.)

尽管北京表示该法将保护所有官方认可的56个民族的传统，但其主要焦点似乎是将少数民族居民同化到占人口多数的汉族文化中。法律规定，普通话应作为学校教学和官方沟通的语言。（在同时使用两种语言的官方用语中，应当在位置、顺序等方面突出普通话。）

Under the new law, the authorities must guide citizens to have “correct views” on history, culture and religion and shed “outdated customs.” It also requires parents to “educate and guide children to love the Chinese Communist Party.” The law makes it illegal for anyone to oppose a marriage on ethnic or religious grounds and also calls for minority residents to live in mixed communities.

根据新法律，当局必须引导公民树立“正确”的历史观、文化观和宗教观，并推动“移风易俗”。法律还要求家长“教育和引导未成年人热爱中国共产党”。该法规定，任何人以民族或宗教原因为由反对婚姻均为非法，并呼吁少数民族居民居住在混合社区。

2021年，新疆一所学校的音乐课，当时正值政府组织外国记者进行考察访问。

According to James Leibold, a professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne who focuses on China’s ethnic policies, the law marks the final “legal capstone” in Mr. Xi’s hard-line approach toward the country’s hinterlands like Xinjiang and Tibet, where demands for greater autonomy have in the past erupted into protests and violence.

墨尔本拉筹伯大学关注中国民族政策的教授雷国俊(James Leibold)认为，这部法律标志着习近平对新疆和西藏等边疆地区采取强硬手段的最终“法律顶峰”。 这些地区过去曾因要求更大自治权而爆发抗议和暴力事件。

In those regions, government measures — which have included mass detentions of residents, forced political indoctrination, the separation of children from their families and suppressing population growth — have led to the erasure of minority languages, religious traditions and cultural norms, he said.

雷国俊表示，在这些地区，政府的措施——包括大规模拘禁居民、强制政治灌输、将儿童与家人分离以及抑制人口增长——已经导致了少数民族语言、宗教传统和文化规范遭到抹杀。

The ethnic unity law is now “mobilizing all aspects of the party, state and society to forge a single national consciousness,” Dr. Leibold said. “In Xi’s China, there is very little room left for diversity of culture, language, identity, or even thought.”

民族团结法正在“调动党、国家和社会的所有方面来锻造单一的国家意识，”雷国俊说。“在习近平统治下的中国，几乎没有给文化、语言、身份甚至思想的多样性留下空间。”

Even before Mr. Xi came to power, Chinese officials and intellectuals were debating whether decades of granting limited autonomy to minority regions had gone too far. After a string of attacks by Uyghurs — including in 2014 when a group armed with knives killed 31 people at a train station in the southwestern city of Kunming — Mr. Xi oversaw an intense security crackdown and a shift in the party’s ethnic policies.

早在习近平上台之前，中国的官员和知识分子就在辩论，几十年来给予少数民族地区有限自治权的政策是否走得太远。在一系列由维吾尔人发起的袭击后——包括2014年一群持刀袭击者在西南城市昆明的火车站杀害31人的事件——习近平主持了严厉的安全镇压，并转变了党的民族政策。

Officials restricted the use of minority languages in schools in Xinjiang and Tibet and other places where minority students had previously been able to choose their language of instruction. Until 2020, students in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region between China and Mongolia, could study mostly in Mongolian. The ban caused widespread protests that were quickly put down.

官员们限制了新疆、西藏等少数民族地区学校使用少数民族语言的权利，此前这些地区的少数民族学生可自主选择教学语言。直到2020年，位于中国与蒙古交界处的内蒙古自治区学生仍主要使用蒙古语学习。该禁令引发了广泛抗议，但很快被镇压。

上周全国人民代表大会期间，西藏代表团在会议上。

The new law formalizes and applies that language policy across the country. It also mandates that children must start learning the language before kindergarten, with the goal of having a “basic grasp” of it by the time they finish the nine years of compulsory education.

新法律使这种语言政策正式化，并在全国范围内推行。它还强制要求儿童在幼儿园之前就开始学习普通话，目标是在完成九年义务教育时能达到“基本掌握”水平。

The law, which requires local governments to support minority workers and students when they move elsewhere in China, is likely to accelerate official efforts to promote migration into and out of minority regions, which some experts see as diluting minority culture. The goal is to bind China’s minorities to the majority population, a relationship Mr. Xi has likened to that of a tree and its branches, where Chinese culture is the trunk and each ethnic group is a branch.

该法律要求地方政府支持少数民族务工者或学生搬迁到中国其他地方。这可能会加速官方推动少数民族地区人口的迁入与迁出，一些专家认为这会稀释少数民族文化。其目标是将中国的少数民族与多数民族捆绑在一起，习近平曾将这种关系比作树干与树枝：中华文化是主干，各民族文化是枝叶。

Beijing is focused on the “contact, exchange and blending” of different ethnic groups, according to Aaron Glasserman, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania who researches ethnic policy in China.

宾夕法尼亚大学研究中国民族政策的博士后学者亚伦·格拉斯曼表示，北京关注的是不同民族之间的“交往、交流、交融”。

“Xi’s preferred metaphor for China’s minorities is telling. He says they should be ‘packed tightly together like pomegranate seeds.’ That is, small, similar and red,” he said.

他说：“习近平对少数民族的比喻颇具深意。他说各民族应该‘像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一起’。也就是说：小巧、相似，而且是红色的。”

中国额尔古纳市靠近俄罗斯边境处，一座石榴雕塑矗立于此。其后镌刻着习近平的箴言：“促进各民族像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一起。”

Dr. Glasserman said the new law demonstrates the government’s confidence in its methods in Xinjiang and Tibet, despite criticism from international rights groups. It also empowers the authorities to pursue groups and people outside of China seen as undermining national unity or inciting ethnic division.

格拉斯曼说，尽管国际人权组织提出批评，新法律仍彰显了政府对其在新疆和西藏治理方式的信心。该法还赋予当局权力，可追查被视为破坏国家统一或煽动民族分裂的中国境外团体及个人。

Chinese officials last year pressured a museum in Thailand to remove the names and works of four Uyghur, Tibetan and Hong Kong artists. The police last year detained an overseas Chinese student advocating for Tibetans, Tara Zhang Yadi, on suspicion of separatism, according to a group advocating for her release.

去年，中国官员向泰国的一家博物馆施压，要求撤下四名维吾尔、藏族和香港艺术家的名字及作品。警方去年以涉嫌分裂国家罪逮捕了一名支持西藏的海外中国留学生张雅笛，消息由一个倡导释放她的组织提供。

“Now the Chinese government is demanding this ideological uniformity not only within its territory but also abroad,” said Yalkun Uluyol, a China researcher at Human Rights Watch. “That is what you call transnational repression.”

“现在中国政府不仅要求境内思想的统一，还将这种要求延伸到境外，”人权观察组织的中国研究员亚力坤·乌鲁尧勒表示。“这就是所谓的跨国镇压。”

The Trump administration is expected to initiate a sweeping trade investigation as soon as Thursday that will target dozens of countries over their policies toward the trade in goods made with forced labor.

特朗普政府最早可能于周四启动一项广泛的贸易调查，矛头将指向数十个国家，涉及这些国家对使用强迫劳动生产的商品方面的贸易政策。

The inquiry is part of an effort by the Trump administration to resurrect a global system of tariffs after President Trump’s first attempt was struck down by the Supreme Court last month. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced another major trade investigation that could lead to tariffs, focusing on excess production in the factory sectors of 16 major trading partners.

这项调查是特朗普政府试图恢复一套全球关税体系的一部分。上个月，特朗普最初推动的关税方案被最高法院否决。周三，特朗普政府宣布了另一项可能导致加征关税的重大贸易调查，重点针对16个主要贸易伙伴制造业领域的产能过剩问题。

The United States has banned imports of goods made with forced labor for nearly a century. Under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the United States passed a law that greatly expanded that scope. The United States forbids the import of any goods from the Xinjiang region of China, where accusations of forced labor have been rampant, unless importers provide documentation that their goods were made without it.

美国禁止进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品已有近一个世纪的历史。在拜登执政期间，美国通过了一项法律，大幅扩大了这一禁令的范围。美国禁止进口来自中国新疆地区的任何商品——该地区长期被指存在强迫劳动问题——除非进口商能够提供文件证明这些商品并非由强迫劳动生产。

The trade agreements that the Trump administration has forged with dozens of countries in recent months have also forced other countries to make commitments not to import goods made with forced labor.

特朗普政府近几个月与数十个国家达成的贸易协议也迫使其他国家承诺不进口使用强迫劳动生产的商品。

Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said on Wednesday that the forced labor investigation would cover 60 countries and focus on the laws countries use to regulate the trade of goods made with forced labor, not their domestic situations.

美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周三表示，强迫劳动调查将涵盖60个国家，重点关注各国用于监管强迫劳动商品贸易的法律，而不是这些国家国内的具体情况。

He said that the U.S. government had enforced its ban on forced labor goods “quite effectively.” He added, “we expect other trading partners to take this approach as well.”

他表示，美国政府“相当有效地”执行了强迫劳动商品禁令。他还说：“我们期望其他贸易伙伴也采取这种做法。”

The investigation is one of several that the Office of the United States Trade Representative is pursuing in an effort to set up a durable system of global tariffs by this summer. The administration has also proposed potential investigations into digital services taxes, pharmaceutical pricing and unfair trade in sectors like rice and seafood.

这项调查是美国贸易代表办公室正在推进的多项调查之一，目的是在今年夏天前建立一套更为持久的全球关税体系。政府还提出，可能就数字服务税、药品定价，以及大米和海产品等领域的不公平贸易展开调查。

The investigations are being carried out under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law that allows the United States to impose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices.

这些调查依据《1974年贸易法》第301条款进行，该法允许美国针对不公平贸易行为征收关税。

Administration officials have not clarified how high the new levies could be, or how the patchwork of investigations would apply to each country. They have said they would try to replicate their previous tariff structure, which was struck down after the Supreme Court ruled in February that Mr. Trump was not justified in using an emergency law to impose the tariffs.

政府官员尚未说明新关税可能有多高，也没有解释这一系列调查将如何具体适用于各个国家。他们表示，希望尽量复制此前的关税结构——但那一套关税在今年2月被最高法院否决，因为法院裁定特朗普无权以紧急法为依据实施这些关税。

Immediately after the ruling, Mr. Trump issued a new 10 percent global tariff under a different legal authority. He has threatened to increase those tariffs to 15 percent, but that has not yet gone into effect. But that tariff is time-limited, and is set to expire in July unless Congress votes to renew it.

裁决后，特朗普立即根据另一项法律授权，宣布对全球征收10%的新关税。他曾威胁要将这些关税提高至15%，但尚未实施。然而，这项关税是有时限的，除非国会投票延长，否则将于今年7月到期。

The new Section 301 investigations are likely to be much more durable, though the administration is required to carry out an investigation and hearings before they can be imposed.

新的301条款调查可能会持久得多，不过政府需要在征收关税前进行调查和举行听证会。

The new raft of investigations has caused frustration and angst among some trading partners, who are wondering how their businesses and economies will ultimately be affected. The executive arm of the European Union, which was included in the “excess capacity” investigation announced Wednesday, said on Thursday that it was seeking clarity on how the moves would affect the trade deal it had made with the United States.

这一系列新的调查已经引起一些贸易伙伴的不满和担忧，他们不清楚自己的企业和经济最终会受到怎样的影响。周三被列入“产能过剩”调查的欧盟执行机构周四表示，对于这些举措将如何影响其与美国达成的贸易协议，他们正在寻求澄清。

“We can only reiterate our expectation that the U.S. fully honor its commitments reflected in the E.U.-U.S. joint statement on this topic,” said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, the E.U. executive arm. He said that the European Union “would respond firmly and proportionately” to any breach of those commitments.

“我们只能再次重申我们的期望，即美国完全履行其在欧盟-美国联合声明中就这一问题所作的承诺，”欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会的发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示。他说，欧盟将对任何违反这些承诺的行为“作出坚定且相称的反应”。

He added that the European Union was a market-driven economy that did not consider itself a contributor to excess capacity, an issue that economists and policymakers typically link with China. Like the United States, the European Union has been struggling to cope with a flood of cheap Chinese cars and other exports.

他还表示，欧盟是市场驱动型经济体，不认为自己是造成产能过剩的因素——这一问题通常被经济学家和政策制定者与中国联系在一起。与美国一样，欧盟一直在努力应对大量廉价中国汽车和其他出口产品的冲击。

“The European Union shares the United States’ concern regarding structural overcapacity in the global economy,” Mr. Gill said. “However, the sources of such overcapacity are well identified, and they do not lie in Europe.”

“欧盟与美国一样，对全球经济中的结构性产能过剩感到担忧，”吉尔表示。“但造成这种产能过剩的来源是明确的，而这些来源并不在欧洲。”

In remarks to reporters Wednesday, Mr. Greer was unsympathetic, saying that the European Union had done “approximately zero percent” of what it was supposed to do to finalize its trade deal with the United States. He said that the European Union had legislation pending that would make promised changes to their tariffs for many months, and that there were a variety of other trade barriers where Europe had not taken action.

格里尔周三对记者发表讲话时并未表现出同情，他表示欧盟在完成与美国的贸易协定方面，其应做的工作只完成了“大约百分之零”。他说，欧盟有待通过的立法将使承诺的关税调整拖延数月之久，而且欧洲在其他各种贸易壁垒问题上也未采取行动。

“We’re still waiting for Europe to do a lot of what it promised,” he said.

“我们仍在等待欧洲履行其承诺的许多事项，”他说。

The investigations are also likely to rankle Chinese officials, who are busily preparing for Mr. Trump to travel to Beijing at the end of the month for a meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

这些调查可能也会激怒中国官员，他们正在忙着为特朗普月底前往北京与中国领导人习近平会晤做准备。

In a news conference on Thursday, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that China opposed unilateral tariffs and other restrictions. He called “overcapacity” a false premise and a “pretext for political manipulation.”

在周四的新闻发布会上，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，中国反对单边关税和其他限制措施。他称所谓的“产能过剩”是一个伪命题，是“政治操弄的借口”。

While some organizations that support domestic manufacturing and tariffs have praised the administration’s new investigations, others that depend on global supply chains expressed concern.

虽然一些支持国内制造业和关税的组织对政府的新调查表示赞赏，但那些依赖全球供应链的组织则表达了担忧。

Stephen Lamar, the president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, said that his group was discouraged by the proposed tariffs and that the administration should slow down and work with various stakeholders, including Congress. He likened the process to the administration trying to “glue together shattered glass in a messy fix that risks American businesses and consumers left holding the sharp edges.”

美国服装与鞋类协会会长斯蒂芬·拉马尔表示，拟议中的关税措施让其组织感到失望，并认为政府应该放慢节奏，与包括国会在内的各方利益相关者合作。他把这一过程比作政府试图“把碎裂的玻璃粘在一起，修补得一团糟，最后扎手的可能还是美国企业和消费者”。

“We understand the administration is hurriedly trying to recreate the tariff rates it had sought to establish under a scheme now deemed illegal by the Supreme Court,” he said. “In this effort, the process increasingly feels like answers in search of an investigation rather than an investigation in search of answers.”

他说：“我们理解政府正急于恢复此前试图建立的一套关税税率体系，但那一方案如今已被最高法院认定为非法。在这一过程中，整个做法越来越像是先有答案再去做调查来证明，而不是通过调查寻找答案。”

When the Chinese government gathered this month for its biggest political meeting of the year, it laid out big ambitions. It will keep boosting military spending. It will work to dominate artificial intelligence. It will reinforce its manufacturing prowess.

本月为年度最大的政治会议聚集在一起时，中国政府勾勒出了宏大的雄心。它将继续增加军费开支。它将努力主导人工智能领域。它将强化其制造业实力。

But when it comes to some of the country’s most vulnerable citizens, the plan is decidedly less lofty. The government said it would increase the minimum basic pension for rural residents by 20 yuan a month, or less than $3, to a grand total of about $24 a month.

但在涉及该国一些最脆弱的公民时，计划显然没那么远大。政府表示，将把农村居民的基础养老金最低标准每月提高20元，即不到3美元，使总额达到每月163元。

The promised increase is so meager that it has prompted widespread calls for more — even from representatives to China’s rubber-stamp legislature who usually spend their annual meeting praising Beijing’s plans.

这一承诺的增幅是如此微薄，以至于引发了要求增加的广泛呼声——甚至包括中国的橡皮图章立法机构的代表们，他们通常在这场年度会议上都在赞美北京的计划。

“This is just too unfair to farmers,” Guo Fenglian, a representative and village leader who was once praised by Mao as a model worker, told a Chinese reporter at the weeklong legislative meeting in Beijing that ended Thursday.

“对农民有点太亏了，”全国人大代表、曾被毛泽东赞誉为劳动模范的村干部郭凤莲在周四结束的为期一周的北京立法会议上告诉一名中国记者。

Ms. Guo described seeing farmers in their 80s or 90s still working in the fields, sometimes with canes or stooped backs. “They’re already very old and don’t have the physical ability to work anymore. But the cost of living is high,” she said, according to the Workers’ Daily, a Communist Party publication.

郭女士描述了她看到八九十岁的农民仍在田间劳作，有时拄着拐杖或弓着背。“他们已经很老了，已经失去了体力劳动的能动性。但是生活的成本也很高，”据共产党刊物《工人日报》报道，她这样说道。

For many Chinese farmers, the payments are far from enough to live on. The average older rural resident spends about $80 a month on routine expenses, according to a government report published in 2024. About 180 million people receive the rural pension, a cohort that is set to grow as China’s population ages rapidly. (The pension also covers urban residents without salaried work, but the vast majority of recipients are farmers.)

对于许多中国农民来说，这笔支出远不足以维持生活。根据2024年发布的一份政府报告，农村老年人平均每月在常规支出上花费约80美元。约有1.8亿人领取农村养老金，随着中国人口迅速老龄化，这一群体还将继续增长。（该养老金也覆盖没有受薪工作的城镇居民，但绝大多数领取者是农民。）

The paltriness of the pension is one of the clearest examples of the vast inequalities in China’s economy, and the deep-rooted challenges that are often overshadowed by its much-touted progress in high-tech fields. While the country leads the world in sectors like robotics or electric vehicles, many of the workers who powered China’s economic rise, such as farmers and workers in low-end manufacturing, are suffering from stagnating wages and cutthroat competition.

养老金的微薄是中国经济巨大不平等的明证之一，也是一个根深蒂固的挑战，而这些挑战往往被其在高科技领域备受赞誉的进步所掩盖。虽然在机器人或电动汽车等行业领先世界，但许多助力中国经济崛起的劳动者，如农民和低端制造业工人，正深受工资停滞和残酷竞争之苦。

Despite its socialist billing, China has a threadbare social safety net; the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has warned against the dangers of “welfarism.”

尽管标榜社会主义，中国的社会安全网却很薄弱；该国最高领导人习近平曾警告过“福利主义”的危险。

Rural residents have also long had far fewer benefits than their urban counterparts. While the average actual payout for rural pensioners is about 246 yuan, or $36, a month, retirees in cities receive on average almost 16 times more, or about $560 a month, according to the government’s 2025 Labor Statistical Yearbook. Retired officials get even more, on average $940 a month.

而长期以来，农村居民享有的福利也远少于城镇居民。根据政府的2025年《中国劳动统计年鉴》，农村养老金的实际发放额为246元（约合36美元），但城市退休人员平均领取的金额几乎是其16倍，即每月约560美元(人民币3800多元)。退休官员得到的更多，平均每月940美元（人民币近6000元）。

Zhou Shihong, a lawyer who is a member of a government advisory body, suggested the government work to close the disparity.

作为政府咨询机构成员的律师周世虹建议政府努力消除这种差距。

“If it relates to government funding or state subsidies, social security should be provided equally to everybody,” he told Chinese media, adding that the government should strive to raise the rural pension to $145 a month by 2030.

“凡是涉及到国家出资或者国家财政补贴，对每个人的社会保障应该是人人均等的，”他告诉中国媒体，并补充说，政府应努力在2030年前将农村养老金提高到1000元。

Indeed, the delegates’ calls for higher pensions were striking largely for their modesty. Some called for a rise to 500 yuan, or $70, a month. That increase, for farmers over 70, would cost less than 1 percent of the country’s budget for general public expenditures, one lawmaker pointed out.

事实上，代表们提高养老金的呼吁之所以引人注目，很大程度上是因为这是个十分克制的诉求。一些人呼吁将金额提高到每月500元（约70美元）。一位立法者指出，对于70岁以上的农民来说，这一增幅所耗费的成本不到该国一般公共预算支出的1%。

周一，在北京参加全国人民代表大会的代表们。

Much of the discussion online has been supportive of calls for more money for rural pensioners.

网络上的许多讨论都支持为农村养老金领取者提供更多资金的呼吁。

But some delegates have sounded notes of caution. The president of a major Chinese electronic appliance company said that even a seemingly small increase would add up quickly. Major state media outlets have largely been silent on the outcry.

但一些代表发出了谨慎的声音。一家中国大型家电公司的总裁表示，即使是看似很小的增幅也会迅速累积。主要的官方媒体对这些抗议声大多保持沉默。

China’s finance minister, in an unrelated news conference last week, acknowledged the importance of ensuring people’s livelihoods but also said that the country’s revenue was “under pressure” and called for reducing expenditures. A slow-moving housing market crash has hurt local government revenues, which rely heavily on land sales.

中国财政部长在上周的一次无关的新闻发布会上承认了确保民生的重要性，但也表示该国的财政收入“承压”，并要求减少开支。房地产市场的缓慢崩盘损害了地方政府的收入，而后者严重依赖土地出售。

Proponents of higher pensions said that with more money, residents would be willing to spend more, which in turn would help the government meet a major goal of increasing domestic demand.

提高养老金的支持者表示，有了更多的钱，居民将愿意花更多的钱，这反过来将有助于政府实现增加国内需求的主要目标。

For many, though, the main argument was more moral than pragmatic. China’s farmers had helped build the country, they said, when Mao-era policies required them to sell their crops for artificially low prices, turn their land over to the state and pay agricultural taxes.

然而，对许多人来说，主要的论据与其说是务实的，不如说是道德上的。他们说，中国的农民曾帮助建设了这个国家，当时毛泽东时代的政策要求他们以人为压低的价格出售农作物，将土地交给国家并缴纳农业税。

They acknowledged that urban residents pay more into the pension system than rural residents do, but said the system did not account for the farmers’ historic contributions.

他们承认，城镇居民向养老系统缴纳的费用比农村居民多，但他们表示，该系统没有考虑到农民的历史贡献。

“These contributions cannot be measured by simple payment records,” a commentary in China Business Network, a Shanghai-based media outlet, said. “Increasing farmers’ pensions is not about providing them with welfare, but rather about paying back a debt.”

“这些贡献不能通过简单的缴费记录来衡量，”上海媒体《第一财经》的一篇评论称。“给农民涨养老金不是给农民发福利，而是在还账。”

A summit between President Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that could extend their countries’ trade truce is less than three weeks away, yet a cloud of uncertainty hangs over it.

特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平之间可能延长两国贸易休战状态的峰会还有不到三周就要举行，但其前景仍笼罩着不确定性的阴云。

Chinese officials are frustrated by a lack of details from the White House about Mr. Trump’s agenda and what deals the two sides could agree on, Chinese analysts say. American business leaders, for their part, don’t know if they are being invited to join the U.S. president.

中国分析人士表示，白宫迟迟不提供特朗普的议程细节以及双方可能达成的协议，中国官员感到挫败。美国商界领袖则表示，他们尚不清楚是否会被邀请随同总统出行。

To some extent, that may be just what dealing with Mr. Trump looks like. He prizes being unpredictable and has said he thinks keeping the other side off balance is the secret to winning. The Chinese government, on the other hand, likes to script every detail of meetings with Mr. Xi well in advance.

在某种程度上，这或许正是与特朗普打交道的常态。他推崇不可预测性，并曾表示他认为让对方摸不着头脑是获胜的秘诀。相比之下，中国政府则习惯提前很久就为与习近平的会晤拟定每一个细节。

“Usually, planning for this kind of visit would start months ahead. But this time, it started very late and it’s still very much in progress,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, who last year was among a group of Chinese scholars attending unofficial talks in the United States.

“通常情况下，这种访问的规划会在几个月前开始。但这一次启动得很晚，而且目前仍处于推进过程中，”复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示。去年，他曾作为中国学者代表团的一员赴美参加非官方会谈。

“We still don’t know what this visit will achieve,” he said.

他说：“我们仍然不知道这次访问将取得什么成果。”

That includes what commercial deals may be announced during the visit and what else Mr. Trump wants to do, Mr. Wu said. Some of these questions might be ironed out when Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China meet in Paris later this week.

吴心伯表示，这包括访问期间可能宣布哪些商业交易，以及特朗普希望达成的其他事项。其中一些问题可能会在本周晚些时候美国财政部长贝森特与中国副总理何立峰在巴黎会面时得到解决。

Concerns about the summit, which the White House says will be from March 31 to April 2, are also being aired in the United States. On Tuesday, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council, Sean Stein, said that the White House had yet to invite any business leaders to travel with him.

白宫称这次峰会将于3月31日至4月2日举行，而美国国内也传出了对此次峰会的担忧。周二，美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森(Sean Stein)表示，白宫尚未邀请任何商界领袖随行。

美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森今年1月在华盛顿特区出席活动。

World leaders are often accompanied by chief executives on visits to China, in a reflection of the importance of the Chinese economy. Last month, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany traveled to Beijing with roughly 30 executives; in January, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain took nearly 60 businesspeople. Mr. Trump himself brought executives with him in 2017 during his first presidential term.

世界领导人访问中国时通常会有首席执行官随行，这反映了中国经济的重要性。上个月，德国总理默茨率领约30名高管访问北京；今年1月，英国首相斯塔默带去了近60名商界人士。特朗普自己在2017年首个总统任期访华时也曾带企业高管随行。

“It’s hard to imagine the president is not going to want to have a robust delegation,” Mr. Stein said. “But so far, again, invitations haven’t gone out.”

“很难想象总统会不希望带一支强大的代表团，”谭森说。“但到目前为止，邀请函确实还没有发出。”

Mr. Stein said his understanding was that the Trump administration had not yet made a decision about whether chief executives should accompany the president.

谭森表示，据他了解，特朗普政府尚未决定是否安排企业高管随行。

A White House spokesman said that the administration intended to extend invitations when appropriate. It was normal for the United States not to have extended invitations yet, he said. On the goals for the summit, the spokesman said that neither side had yet revealed specifics.

白宫发言人表示，政府打算在适当时机发出邀请。他说，美国尚未发出邀请是正常的。至于峰会的目标，该发言人表示双方目前均未透露具体细节。

The U.S.-China relationship has largely been focused on maintaining stability, after a trade clash last year sent the relationship into a free fall. Mr. Trump’s steep global tariffs prompted the Chinese to cut off purchases of U.S. soybeans and clamp down on exports of rare earth minerals needed by American factories.

在去年的贸易冲突导致两国关系直线下跌后，目前两国主要聚焦于维持稳定。特朗普征收的高额全球关税促使中方切断了对美国大豆的采购，并限制美国工厂所需的稀土矿产出口。

Mr. Trump met Mr. Xi in South Korea in October, when they agreed on a yearlong trade truce. American officials have since said that the two leaders are expected to meet as many as four times this year.

特朗普去年10月在韩国与习近平会面，当时双方达成了一项为期一年的贸易战停火协议。美国官员此后表示，预计两位领导人今年将进行多达四次的会晤。

习近平主席的专车在10月釜山与特朗普会晤期间停在空军一号附近。

U.S. business leaders have been pressing for a more ambitious agenda that would try to open Chinese markets and remove impediments to businesses seeking to operate there. That includes obtaining approvals for U.S. crops grown with genetically modified seeds, U.S. pharmaceutical exports, and pending licenses for financial services companies.

美国商界领袖一直向政府施压，要求制定更宏大的议程，推动中国市场的开放，消除企业在华经营的障碍。这包括为美国转基因种子农产品、美国药品出口，以及金融服务公司待批牌照争取到批准。

China has yet to confirm the dates of the summit, but that is in line with its standard practice. Still, the country’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, struck a positive note at a news briefing last week.

中国尚未确认峰会的日期，但这符合其惯常做法。尽管如此，中国最高外交官王毅在上周的新闻发布会上表达了积极的态度。

“This year is a big year for China-U.S. relations,” Mr. Wang said. “The agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table.”

“今年是中美关系的‘大年’，高层交往的议程已经摆在我们的桌面上，”王毅说。

The comments suggested plans had not been derailed by the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, one of China’s strategic partners.

这样的言论表明，中国战略伙伴之一伊朗遭美以袭击事件并未打乱中美之间的计划。

Mr. Wang hinted, though, that the Trump administration should not do anything to antagonize China that could jeopardize the meeting, saying both sides should “manage the risks that do exist and remove unnecessary disruptions.” Mr. Trump has already delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi ahead of the summit.

不过，王毅暗示，特朗普政府不应做任何可能危害会晤的挑衅中国行为，称双方应“管控存在的风险，排除不必要的干扰”。 为避免在峰会前激怒习近平，特朗普已推迟宣布向台湾（北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿）出售武器的计划。

Mr. Wu of Fudan University said he doubted that China would lavish Mr. Trump with as much pomp and circumstance as they had on his first trip, when Mr. Xi took him on a personal tour of the Forbidden City. Just months after that, Mr. Trump launched his first trade war with China.

复旦大学的吴心伯表示，他怀疑中国是否还会像特朗普第一次访华时那样，给予他极其隆重的礼遇，当时习近平曾亲自陪同他参观故宫。就在那次访问几个月后，特朗普发起了对华的第一场贸易战。

“I’m not sure China is going to provide this kind of treatment for him again,” Mr. Wu said. “No matter how well you treat him, you cannot prevent him from changing his mind.”

“我不确定中国是否会再一次给他这种待遇，”吴心伯说。“不管你对他多好，都无法阻止他改变主意。”

On Feb. 18, as President Trump weighed whether to launch military attacks on Iran, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told an interviewer he was not concerned that the looming war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.

2月18日，就在特朗普总统权衡是否对伊朗发动军事打击时，能源部长克里斯·赖特在接受采访时表示，他并不担心迫在眉睫的战争会扰乱中东的石油供应并对能源市场造成破坏。

Even during the Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran last June, Mr. Wright said, there had been little disruption in the markets. “Oil prices blipped up and then went back down,” he said. Some of Mr. Trump’s other advisers shared similar views in private, dismissing warnings that — the second time around — Iran might wage economic warfare by closing shipping lanes carrying roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.

赖特表示，即使在去年6月以色列和美国对伊朗进行打击期间，市场也几乎没有受到干扰。他说：“油价只是有小幅跳升，然后就回落了。”特朗普的其他一些顾问在私下里也持有类似观点，他们对相关警告不屑一顾——这些警告称，在第二次冲突中，伊朗可能会通过关闭承载全球约20%石油供应的航道来发动经济战。

The extent of that miscalculation was laid bare in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf. In response to the Iranian threats, commercial shipping has come to a standstill in the Gulf, oil prices have spiked, and the Trump administration has scrambled to find ways to tamp down an economic crisis that has triggered higher gasoline prices for Americans.

这种误判的严重程度在近日暴露无遗。随着伊朗威胁要向通过霍尔木兹海峡的商业油轮开火（霍尔木兹海峡是所有船只进出波斯湾必须经过的战略咽喉），海湾地区的商业航运应声陷入停滞，油价飙升，特朗普政府正焦头烂额地寻找方法，以平息这场已导致美国汽油价格上涨的经济危机。

The episode is emblematic of how much Mr. Trump and his advisers misjudged how Iran would respond to a conflict that the government in Tehran sees as an existential threat. Iran has responded far more aggressively than it did during last June’s 12-day war, firing barrages of missiles and drones at U.S. military bases, cities in Arab nations across the Middle East, and on Israeli population centers.

这一事件典型地反映了特朗普及其顾问如何严重低估了伊朗对这场冲突的反应，德黑兰政府将其视为生存威胁。伊朗的反应远比去年6月那场为期12天的战争要激烈得多，他们向美国军事基地、中东各地的阿拉伯城市以及以色列的人口中心发射了大量导弹和无人机。

U.S. officials have had to adjust plans on the fly, from hastily ordering the evacuation of embassies to developing policy proposals to reduce gas prices.

美国官员不得不临时调整计划，从紧急下令撤离大使馆，到制定降低油价的政策建议。

After Trump administration officials gave a closed-door briefing to lawmakers on Tuesday, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, said on social media that the administration had no plan for the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open.”

在特朗普政府官员周二向立法者进行闭门简报后，康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯托弗·S·墨菲在社交媒体上表示，政府对霍尔木兹海峡没有计划，且“不知道如何安全地恢复通航”。

Inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war. But they have been careful not to express that directly to the president, who has repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete success.

在政府内部，一些官员对于缺乏明确的结束战争的战略越来越感到悲观。但他们一直小心翼翼，不敢直接向总统表达这一点，因为总统反复宣称这次军事行动取得了圆满成功。

Mr. Trump has laid out maximalist goals like insisting that Iran name a leader who will submit to him, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have described narrower and more tactical objectives that could provide an off-ramp in the near term.

特朗普提出了一些宏大的目标，比如坚持要求伊朗任命一位顺从他的领导人；而国务卿马可·鲁比奥和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯则描述了更狭窄、更具战术性的目标，这可能在短期内提供一个“退坡”机制。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “had a strong game plan” before the war broke out, and vowed that oil prices would drop after it ended.

白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，政府在战争爆发前制定了一个“强大的作战方案”，并誓言油价将在战争结束后下跌。

“The purposeful disruption in the oil market by the Iranian regime is short term, and necessary for the long-term gain of wiping out these terrorists and the threat they pose to America and the world,” she said in a statement.

她在一份声明中说：“伊朗政权蓄意扰乱石油市场是短期的，对于消除这些恐怖分子及其对美国和世界构成的威胁这一长期利益来说，这是必要的。”

This article is based on interviews with a dozen U.S. officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss private conversations.

本文基于对十几名美国官员的采访，由于涉及私下对话，他们要求匿名。

白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，在战争爆发前，政府就已制定了“强大的作战方案”。

‘Show Some Guts’

“拿出点胆量来”

Mr. Hegseth acknowledged on Tuesday that Iran’s ferocious response against its neighbors caught the Pentagon somewhat off guard. But he insisted that Iran’s actions were backfiring.

海格塞斯周二承认，伊朗对其邻国的凶猛反应令五角大楼有些措手不及。但他坚称，其行为的效果适得其反。

“I can’t say that we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react, but we knew it was a possibility,” Mr. Hegseth said at a Pentagon news conference. “I think it was a demonstration of the desperation of the regime.”

“我不能说我们预料到了他们一定会做出这种反应，但我们知道有这种可能性，”海格塞斯在五角大楼的新闻发布会上说。“我认为这反映了该政权的绝望。”

Mr. Trump has displayed growing frustration over how the war is disrupting the oil supply, telling Fox News that oil tanker crews should “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

特朗普日益表现出对战争扰乱石油供应的不满，他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，油轮船员应该“拿出点胆量来”，驶过霍尔木兹海峡。

Some military advisers did warn before the war that Iran could launch an aggressive campaign in response, and would view the U.S.-Israeli attack as a threat to its existence. But other advisers remained confident that killing Iran’s senior leadership would lead to more pragmatic leaders taking over who might bring an end to the war.

一些军事顾问在战前确实警告过，伊朗可能会发起剧烈的反击，并将美以的攻击视为对其生存的威胁。但其他顾问仍然信心十足，认为除掉伊朗的高层领导将导致更务实的领导人接权，从而可能结束战争。

When Mr. Trump was briefed about risks that oil prices could rise in the event of war, he acknowledged the possibility but downplayed it as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime. He directed Mr. Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to work on developing options for a potential spike in prices.

当特朗普听取关于战争可能导致油价上涨的风险简报时，他承认了这种可能性，但将其淡化为短期担忧，不应因此盖过“斩首”伊朗政权任务的成功。他指示赖特和财政部长斯科特·贝森特针对潜在的价格飙升制定对策。

But the president did not speak publicly about these options — including political risk insurance backed by the U.S. government, and the potential of U.S. Navy escorts — until more than 48 hours after the conflict started. The escorts have not yet taken place.

但直到冲突爆发48小时后，总统才公开谈论这些选项——包括由美国政府支持的政治风险保险，以及美国海军护航的可能性。目前护航行动尚未实施。

As the conflict has roiled global markets, Republicans in Washington have grown concerned about rising oil prices damaging their efforts to sell an economic agenda to voters ahead of the midterm elections.

随着冲突扰乱全球市场，华盛顿的共和党人越来越担心油价上涨会损害他们在国会中期选举前向选民推销经济议程的努力。

Mr. Trump, both publicly and privately, has been arguing that Venezuelan oil could help solve any shocks coming from the Iran war. The administration announced on Tuesday a new refinery in Texas that officials said could help increase oil supply, ensuring that Iran does not cause any long-term damage to oil markets.

特朗普在公开和私下场合都一直在争辩说，委内瑞拉的石油可以帮助缓解伊朗战争带来的任何冲击。政府周二宣布在得克萨斯州建立一家新炼油厂，官员们表示这有助于增加石油供应，确保伊朗不会对石油市场造成任何长期损害。

A Potential Off-Ramp

潜在的退坡机制

Mr. Trump has said both that the war could go on for more than a month and that it was “very complete, pretty much.” He also said the United States would “go forward more determined than ever.”

特朗普既说过战争可能会持续一个月以上，又说过战争已经“非常彻底，基本上是这样”。他还表示美国将“比以往任何时候都更加坚定地前进”。

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Hegseth, however, appear to have coordinated their messaging for now on three discrete goals that they began laying out in public remarks on Monday and Tuesday.

然而，鲁比奥和海格塞斯目前的口径似乎达成了一致，集中在他们在周一和周二的公开讲话中开始列出的三个具体目标上。

“The goals of this mission are clear,” Mr. Rubio said at a State Department event on Monday before Mr. Trump held his own news conference. “It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers; destroy the factories that make these missiles; and destroy their navy.”

“这次任务的目标很明确，”鲁比奥周一在特朗普举行自己的新闻发布会之前，在国务院的一次活动中说。“那就是摧毁该政权发射导弹的能力，包括摧毁他们的导弹和发射器；摧毁制造这些导弹的工厂；并摧毁他们的海军。”

The State Department even laid out the three goals in bullet-point fashion, and highlighted a video clip of Mr. Rubio stating them on an official social media account.

国务院甚至以项目符号列表形式列出了这三个目标，并在官方社交媒体账号上重点展示了鲁比奥阐述这些目标的视频片段。

特朗普曾既表示过这场战争可能会持续一个月以上，又表示过战争已经“非常彻底，基本上是这样”。

The presentation by Mr. Rubio, who is also the White House national security adviser, appeared to be setting the stage for the president to bring an end to the war sooner rather than later. In his news conference, Mr. Trump boasted of how the U.S. military had already destroyed Iran’s ballistic missile capability and its navy. But he also warned of even more aggressive action if Iranian leaders tried to cut off the world’s energy supply.

同时也是白宫国家安全顾问的鲁比奥做出的这番表述似乎是在为总统尽早结束战争铺路。在新闻发布会上，特朗普夸耀美国军方已经摧毁了伊朗的弹道导弹能力和海军。但他也警告说，如果伊朗领导人试图切断世界的能源供应，美方将采取更激烈的行动。

Matthew Pottinger, who was a deputy national security adviser in the first Trump administration, said in an interview that Mr. Trump had indicated he could decide to pursue ambitious war goals that would take weeks at least.

第一届特朗普政府的副国家安全顾问博明(Matthew Pottinger)在接受采访时表示，从特朗普的言论来看，他可能会决定追求需要至少数周时间才能实现的宏大战争目标。

“In his press conference, I could hear him circling back to a rationale for fighting a bit longer given that the regime is still signaling it won’t be deterred and is still trying to control the Strait of Hormuz,” said Mr. Pottinger, now the chair of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a group that advocates a close U.S. partnership with Israel and confrontation with Iran.

“在他的新闻发布会上，我能听出他正绕回到‘多打一段时间’的论证上，因为该政权仍在发出不会被慑服的信号，并仍试图控制霍尔木兹海峡，”博明说道。他目前是保卫民主基金会(FDD)中国项目的负责人，该组织主张美国与以色列建立紧密的伙伴关系并对抗伊朗。

“He doesn’t want to have to fight a ‘sequel’ war,” Mr. Pottinger added.

“他不希望到时候又要打一场‘续集’战争，”博明补充道。

Since President Trump launched a new war with Iran, he has portrayed it as a shock-and-awe assault with few lasting consequences, especially for Americans. On Monday in Florida, he called it a “brief disruption.”

自特朗普总统对伊朗发动新的战争以来，他始终将其描述为一场震慑式打击，几乎不会产生长期后果，对美国人而言尤其如此。周一在佛罗里达州，他称这场战争只是一次“短暂的干扰”。

Experts say it is rapidly becoming something else entirely: a jolt to the global security order and economy that far exceeds those delivered by other recent conflicts in the Middle East.

但专家表示，这场战争正迅速演变成完全不同的局面：它对全球安全秩序与经济的冲击，已远超近期中东其他冲突带来的影响。

Mr. Trump’s war, now nearly two weeks old, is already reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and strategic partnerships. Countries typically shielded from regional conflict, like Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates, have faced retaliatory Iranian fire. The fallout could disrupt midterm elections in the United States, tilt the war calculus in Ukraine and force China into a major economic pivot.

特朗普发动的这场战争持续了近两周，目前已在重塑旅行模式、能源依赖格局、生活成本、贸易航线与战略伙伴关系。塞浦路斯、阿联酋等以往不受地区冲突波及的国家也遭到了伊朗的报复性袭击。这场战争的连锁反应可能扰乱美国中期选举、改变乌克兰战场的博弈格局，并迫使中国做出重大经济战略调整。

Those effects may compound if Mr. Trump presses ahead with the war, particularly if Iran escalates its counterattacks and blocks ship traffic through the critical oil passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Some economists are already invoking a dreaded memory for any U.S. president — the specter of oil-shock-induced stagflation, with growth stalling and prices roaring upward.

如果特朗普继续推进战争，尤其是伊朗升级反击、封锁石油运输要道霍尔木兹海峡的航运，这些影响还会进一步叠加。部分经济学家提及一段令历任美国总统闻之色变的往事——石油冲击引发滞胀的阴霾，即经济增长停滞、物价大幅飙升的局面。

“I’m old enough to remember the events of the ’70s, and a world in which oil price spikes were a significant issue both economically and for a president who might be facing elections,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution. “That doesn’t seem to have been priced into the decision making,” she added.

“我这个年纪还记得70年代的那些事，当年油价飙升不仅是重大经济问题，对面临大选的总统而言也是大事，”布鲁金斯学会伊朗问题专家苏珊娜·马洛尼表示。“而这一点似乎并未被纳入本次决策的考量范围。”

周二北京某加油站。全球许多地区预计将在加油站率先感受到这场战争带来的影响。

The war is most immediately and viscerally affecting the Middle East. Attacks across the region have killed more than a thousand people and wrought extensive damage to critical infrastructure and the environment — unleashing plumes of noxious smoke and black rain over Tehran after Israeli strikes on fuel depots.

这场战争对中东的影响最为直接、最为深切。席卷整个地区的袭击已造成逾千人死亡，关键基础设施与生态环境遭到严重破坏——以色列空袭伊朗油库后，德黑兰上空弥漫着有毒浓烟，还降下了黑雨。

The conflict has shaken the foundation of the Persian Gulf economies, cracking their carefully cultivated images as safe havens in a turbulent region. Iran has launched more attacks on the Gulf countries than it has on Israel, according to an American war monitor, hitting five-star hotels, damaging desalination plants and sending tourists fleeing for evacuation routes.

这场冲突动摇了波斯湾各国经济的根基，击碎了它们精心打造的动荡地区安全避风港的形象。据美国一家战争监测机构统计，伊朗对海湾国家发动的袭击次数超过对以色列的袭击，目标包括五星级酒店、海水淡化厂，大批游客仓皇寻找撤离通道。

Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, have come under attack. European officials are still attempting to rescue their citizens who have been marooned in what once seemed like tranquil vacation spots. The U.S. State Department, after initially facing criticism for acting too slowly, said it had organized over two dozen charter flights and had evacuated thousands of Americans from the Middle East.

阿联酋迪拜和阿布扎比的机场均遭袭击。欧洲官员仍在设法营救滞留在这些昔日宁静度假胜地的本国公民。美国国务院最初因行动迟缓遭到批评，目前表示已组织20余架包机，从中东撤离了数千名美国公民。

Experts warn that reputational damage will linger in the Gulf. Beyond the wealth those countries possess, “the real currency was confidence,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in a panel discussion this week.

专家警告，海湾国家的声誉受损将长期持续。国际战略研究所中东问题专家埃米尔·霍卡耶姆本周在一场专题讨论会上表示，除了拥有的财富，这些国家“真正的硬通货是信心”。

“It wasn’t just the money, it’s the fact that they could realistically tell people it’s a good business environment, you will feel safe,” he added. “We’re immune to regional politics. You can invest here. You can use us for your trade, your airlines, for your comms, your tech and so on. And that’s what the Iranians are after, right?”

他还说：“关键不只是财富，而是它们能实实在在地告诉外界：这里营商环境良好，你们会感到安全。我们不受地区政局动荡影响。你们可以在这里投资，可以利用我们开展贸易、航空、通信、科技等业务。而这正是伊朗想要摧毁的，不是吗？”

周日，从阿联酋迪拜撤离的航班抵达坦桑尼亚后，乘客们陆续下机。

For much of the rest of the world, one of the first pains from the war was felt at the gasoline pump. When tankers stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on global markets, though they have receded somewhat in recent days. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Monday that his country would send 10 warships to the region, potentially to escort vessels through the strait.

对世界其他大多数地区而言，这场战争带来的首个阵痛体现在加油站。油轮暂停通行霍尔木兹海峡后，全球市场油价一度突破每桶100美元，尽管近日有所回落。法国总统马克龙周一表示，法国将向该地区派遣10艘军舰，或为穿越海峡的船只提供护航。

Trump administration officials and European leaders have explored options in recent days to reduce gasoline prices, which have risen along with the global price of oil. Economists have begun warning that if the oil shock persists for weeks, it could ignite an escalating set of price increases across economies, while weighing on economic growth — a fate similar to the stagflation that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution.

特朗普政府官员与欧洲各国领导人近日已在研究平抑汽油价格的方案，美国油价已随全球原油价格同步上涨。经济学家已发出警告：如果此次石油冲击持续数周，可能引发各经济体的物价全面持续攀升，同时拖累经济增长——这与1979年伊朗革命后出现的滞胀局面如出一辙。

“Whether history repeats itself all depends on how long this conflict lasts,” researchers at Deutsche Bank wrote this week.

“历史是否会重演完全取决于这场冲突持续多久，”德意志银行的研究人员本周在报告中写道。

The loss of access to cheap oil is an emerging risk for China — and not the only one. Chinese exporters have become increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern consumers. A disruption to Middle Eastern economies could limit sales of Chinese goods there, undercutting China’s own growth.

对中国而言，无法再获取廉价石油是一个正在显现的风险，但并非唯一风险。中国出口商对中东消费市场的依赖度日益提升，中东经济动荡可能抑制当地对中国商品的需求，进而冲击中国自身的经济增长。

The surge in oil prices is, conversely, helping Russia — by bolstering the oil revenues that help to fund Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine. Europeans are also worried that the heavy fighting in the Middle East will indirectly harm Ukrainian defenses: The more interceptor missiles are used by the United States and its allies to counter Iran, the fewer are available to Ukraine for its defense against Russian attacks.

反过来，油价飙升却让俄罗斯从中受益——石油收入增加，可以为莫斯科在乌克兰的战争机器提供更多资金。欧洲国家也担忧，中东的激烈战事将间接损害乌克兰的防御能力：美国及其盟友为拦截伊朗袭击消耗的拦截弹越多，能提供给乌克兰抵御俄罗斯进攻的弹药就越少。

周五空袭期间特拉维夫上空的景象。

In the United States, the war appears already to be a political liability for Mr. Trump. It has relatively little public support compared to previous wars. Democrats are seizing on rising energy costs to court voters ahead of midterm elections that were already focused on the rising cost of living.

在美国国内，这场战争显然已成为特朗普的政治包袱。与此前的历次战争相比，这场战争的民众支持率相对较低。中期选举的核心议题本就是生活成本不断上涨，民主党人正抓住能源价格攀升的问题争取选民。

More immediately, it has cast a shadow over an event Mr. Trump had hoped would be a signature American triumph under his presidency: the men’s soccer World Cup, which is set to kick off this summer in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Iran is one of the teams scheduled to compete. But it’s unclear if its team will be able to — and what might happen if it can’t.

更直接的是，这场战争给特朗普原本寄望成为其总统任期标志性胜利的盛事蒙上阴影：今年夏天将在美国、加拿大和墨西哥开赛的男足世界杯。伊朗是原定参赛的球队之一，但目前伊朗队能否参赛仍不明确，若它无法参赛，可能引发何种后果亦未可知。

Publicly, Mr. Trump has trumpeted the military might that the United States and Israel have poured into the war, while offering shifting explanations for what prompted the attacks on Iran and varying timelines for when it might end. He has acknowledged some costs of the war, including the American service members who have been killed since it began.

在公开场合，特朗普大肆宣扬美以为这场战争倾注的军事力量，但对发动对伊攻击的动机给出反复无常的解释，对战争何时结束也给出不同时间表。他也承认了战争带来的部分代价，包括开战以来阵亡的美军士兵。

The president has largely dismissed other downsides, like oil price increases, as temporary. He has alarmed allies by offering few concrete plans for how Iran’s government will function after the war.

对于油价上涨等其他负面影响，特朗普总统大多时候称其只是暂时现象，不予重视。他对战后伊朗政府如何运作几乎未提出具体方案，这令盟友深感不安。

In Europe, that has raised concerns of a cratering Iranian economy that could eventually drive new waves of migrants across the Iran-Turkey border. For Europeans, that summons memories of the continent’s migration crisis a decade ago, when conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and Africa led more than a million people to seek refuge in Europe, leading to a right-wing backlash in countries like Germany.

在欧洲，这引发了人们的担忧：伊朗经济若崩盘，最终可能引发新一波移民潮穿越伊土边境。对欧洲人而言，这唤起了十年前欧洲移民危机的记忆——当时中东与非洲的冲突和贫困导致超百万人前往欧洲寻求庇护，在德国等国引发了右翼势力的强烈反弹。

“The United States and Israel have been waging war against Iran for over a week. We share many of their goals,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany on Tuesday. “But with each day of the war, more questions arise. We are particularly concerned that there appears to be no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.”

德国总理默茨周二表示：“美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争已超过一周。我们与他们的诸多目标是一致的。但战争每持续一天，就会产生更多疑问。我们尤为担忧的是，目前各方似乎没有制定出共同方案，推动这场战争迅速、妥善地结束。”

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.

一项仍在进行中的军事调查已经认定，美国应对一次致命的“战斧”巡航导弹袭击伊朗一所小学并造成大量伤亡的事件负责。多名美国官员以及了解初步调查结果的人士透露了这一结论。

The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found. Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, people briefed on the investigation said.

初步调查发现，2月28日对沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学建筑的袭击是美军目标定位错误所致。当时美军正在对相邻的一处伊朗军事基地实施打击，而该小学建筑原为该基地的一部分。了解调查情况的人士称，美国中央司令部的军官使用了国防情报局提供的过时数据，制定了打击坐标。

Officials emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that there are important unanswered questions about why the outdated information had not been double checked.

官员们强调，这些结论仍属初步调查结果，目前仍有重要问题没有得到解答，例如为什么这些过时信息没有经过复核。

Striking a school full of children is sure to be recorded as one of the most devastating single military errors in recent decades. Iranian officials have said the death toll was at least 175 people, most of them children.

对一所满是儿童的学校发动打击无疑将被记录为近几十年来最严重的单次军事失误之一。伊朗官员称，死亡人数至少为175人，其中大多数是儿童。

While the overall finding was largely expected — the United States is the only country involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles — it has already cast a shadow on the U.S. military operation in Iran.

尽管总体调查结果基本在意料之中——美国是参与冲突中唯一使用“战斧”导弹的国家——但这一事件已经给美国在伊朗的军事行动蒙上阴影。

President Trump’s attempts to sidestep the blame for the strike have also already complicated the inquiry, leaving officials who have reviewed the findings showing U.S. culpability expressing unease. The people interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the ongoing investigation and Mr. Trump’s assertion at one point that Iran, not the United States, was responsible.

特朗普总统试图回避此次袭击责任的做法也已使调查变得棘手，让那些审阅了调查结果，看到美国负有责任的官员们感到不安。接受本文采访的人士均要求匿名，理由是调查仍在进行且情况敏感，而且特朗普一度声称应对此事负责的是伊朗，而非美国。

“As The New York Times acknowledges in its own reporting, the investigation is still ongoing,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement.

“正如《纽约时报》在自己的报道中所承认的那样，调查仍在进行中，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。

Asked about this article as he left the White House on Wednesday for a trip to promote his economic agenda in Ohio and Kentucky, Mr. Trump replied, “I don’t know about that.”

周三，特朗普在离开白宫前往俄亥俄州和肯塔基州宣传其经济议程时被问及这篇报道，他回答说：“我对此并不了解。”

People briefed on the investigation said many questions were yet to be answered around why outdated information was used and who failed to verify the data.

知情人士表示，调查人员仍在试图弄清许多问题，例如为什么会使用过时的信息，以及是谁未能核实这些数据。

Still, the error has not surprised current and former officials.

不过，这一失误并没有让现任和前任官员感到意外。

2月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前，工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。

The school, in the town of Minab, is on the same block as buildings used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy, a top target of the U.S. military strikes. The site of the school was originally part of the base. Officials briefed on the inquiry said the building was not always used as a school, though it is not clear precisely when the school opened on the site.

这所学校位于米纳卜市，与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军使用的一些建筑处在同一街区，而后者正是美军打击行动的首要目标之一。学校所在地原本是军事基地的一部分。了解调查情况的官员表示，这栋建筑并非一直用作学校，但目前尚不清楚学校具体何时在此开办。

A visual investigation by The Times showed the building housing the school had been fenced off from the military base between 2013 and 2016.

《纽约时报》通过影像分析发现，2013年至2016年之间，这栋用于学校的建筑已用围栏与军事基地隔开。

Satellite imagery reviewed by The Times showed that watchtowers that once stood near the building had been removed, three public entrances were opened to the school, ground was cleared and play areas including a sports field were painted on asphalt, and walls were painted blue and pink.

《纽约时报》获得的卫星图像显示，曾经矗立在该建筑附近的瞭望塔已被拆除，学校新设三个公共入口，地面被清理平整，柏油地面上还画出了包括运动场在内的活动区域，墙壁也被粉刷成蓝色和粉色。

The “target coding” provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the military intelligence agency that helps develop targets, labeled the school building as a military target when it was passed to Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the war, according to people briefed on the preliminary findings of the investigation.

了解调查初步结果的人士称，由国防情报局（负责协助制定目标的军事情报机构）提供的“目标编码”在移交给中央司令部（负责监管战争的军事总部）时，将学校建筑标记为军事目标。

Investigators do not yet fully understand how the outdated data was sent to Central Command or whether the Defense Intelligence Agency had updated information.

调查人员目前尚未完全弄清楚这些过时数据是如何给到了中央司令部，也不清楚国防情报局当时是否掌握最新信息。

Military targeting is very complex and involves multiple agencies. Many officers would have been responsible for verifying that the data is correct, and officers at Central Command are responsible for checking the information they receive from the Defense Intelligence Agency or another intelligence agency. But in a fast-moving situation, like the opening days of a war, information is sometimes not verified.

军事目标的锁定是一项极其复杂的工作，涉及多个机构。许多军官都应负责核实数据的准确性，而中央司令部的军官也有责任检查来自国防情报局或其他情报机构的信息。但在战争初期这种快速变化的情况下，信息有时得不到核实。

In addition to the Defense Intelligence Agency and Central Command, investigators are examining the work of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, known as the N.G.A., which provides and examines satellite imagery of potential targets.

除了国防情报局和中央司令部，调查人员正在审查美国国家地理空间情报局的工作，该机构负责提供并分析潜在目标的卫星图像。

U.S. officials and others emphasized that the investigation was ongoing and there was more to learn, according to people briefed on the inquiry. Officials from Central Command declined to comment. Officials from the Defense Intelligence Agency referred questions to the Pentagon, which declined to comment, saying the incident was under investigation. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

了解调查情况的人士称，美国官员和其他人士强调，调查仍在进行中，还有更多情况有待了解。中央司令部官员拒绝置评。国防情报局官员将问题转给五角大楼，五角大楼拒绝置评，称该事件正在调查中。国家地理空间情报局未立即回应置评请求。

The Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency have dozens, even hundreds, of analysts at combatant commands who work with military operational planners and intelligence offices to develop targets.

国防情报局与国家地理空间情报局在各作战司令部派驻有数十甚至上百名分析师，他们与军事行动规划人员及情报部门合作，共同制定打击目标。

When the Defense Intelligence Agency’s targeting data is older, intelligence officers are expected to use imagery or data from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to update and verify the target.

当国防情报局提供的目标数据较为陈旧时，情报官员通常需要使用国家地理空间情报局提供的影像或数据来更新并核实目标。

While Mr. Trump has made targeting Iran’s navy a top priority of the war to prevent it from interfering with global commerce in the region, historically it has not been a top priority of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has focused more on Iran’s missiles and other priorities like China and North Korea.

尽管特朗普总统将打击伊朗海军列为战争的首要任务之一，以防其干扰该地区的全球商业航运，但从历史上看，这并非国防情报局的优先事项——该机构更关注伊朗的导弹能力，以及中国和朝鲜等其他重点目标。

Satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos assembled by The Times visual investigation team indicate that the school was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred around the same time as attacks on the naval base. A Times analysis showed that base was hit again within around two hours of the first strikes.

《纽约时报》的视觉调查团队整理的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实的视频显示，这所学校是在对海军基地发动袭击的同一时段遭到精确打击而严重损毁的。时报的分析显示，该基地在首轮袭击后约两小时内再次遭到打击。

A video uploaded Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The Times also shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking the naval base beside the school in Minab on Feb. 28.

上周日，伊朗半官方媒体迈赫尔通讯社上传的一段视频也显示（时报对视频进行了核实），2月28日，一枚“战斧”巡航导弹击中了米纳卜市这所学校旁边的海军基地。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have declined to comment on the strike, other than to say it is under investigation. Despite that, the president has tried at times to put the blame on Iran.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯及其他政府官员拒绝就此次袭击发表评论，仅表示事件仍在调查中。尽管如此，总统仍多次试图将责任归咎于伊朗。

“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Saturday, as Mr. Hegseth stood beside him, adding: “They’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”

“依我所见、根据我看到的情况，那是伊朗干的，”特朗普周六在“空军一号”上对记者说。当时海格塞思就站在他旁边。特朗普还补充说：“正如你们所知道的，他们的弹药非常不精准，完全没有精度。那就是伊朗干的。”

On Monday, a Times reporter asked Mr. Trump why he was the only official in his administration blaming Iran. “Because I just don’t know enough about it,” Mr. Trump answered, asserting incorrectly that Iran might also have Tomahawk missiles but adding that he would accept the results of the inquiry into what happened.

周一，当《纽约时报》记者问特朗普，为什么他是其政府中唯一将责任归咎于伊朗的官员时，特朗普回答说：“因为我对这件事还不够了解。”他还错误地声称伊朗可能也拥有“战斧”导弹，但表示自己会接受调查结果。

Although most presidents might refrain from commenting or couch their statements while an investigation is underway, Mr. Trump has not hesitated to weigh in, and has not fully backed down even as evidence has mounted of U.S. culpability.

尽管大多数总统在调查进行期间可能会避免发表评论或措辞谨慎，但特朗普却毫不犹豫地发表看法，即使越来越多证据显示美国负有责任，他也没有完全收回自己的说法。

On Tuesday, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, reiterated that Mr. Trump would accept the findings of the investigation.

周二，白宫新闻秘书莱维特再次表示，特朗普将接受调查结果。

While the investigation into the school is not complete, the use of old data evoked the biggest misstep of the Kosovo war.

尽管对学校的调查尚未结束，但使用旧数据这一情况，让人想起了科索沃战争中最大的失误。

In 1999, old, outdated maps and poor tradecraft led the C.I.A. to provide erroneous targeting data to the military, resulting in an airstrike on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade that killed three Chinese citizens. The C.I.A. wrongly assessed that the building was the headquarters of a Yugoslav arms agency.

1999年，由于过时地图和糟糕的情报工作，中央情报局向军方提供了错误的目标数据，导致误炸贝尔格莱德中国大使馆，造成三名中国公民死亡。当时中情局错误地判断该建筑是南斯拉夫一家军火机构的总部。

“Database maintenance is one of the basic elements of our intelligence effort, but it is also one that has suffered in recent years as our work force has been spread thin,” George J. Tenet, the C.I.A. director at the time, told a congressional committee in 1999.

“数据库维护是我们情报工作的基本要素之一，但近年来，由于我们的人力资源捉襟见肘，这方面也受到了影响，”时任中情局局长乔治·特尼特在1999年对国会委员会表示。

Military planners assumed the intelligence agency had verified the site and ordered the strike.

当时的军事规划人员以为情报机构已经核实了该地点，于是下令实施了打击。

Taiwan has grown accustomed to a near daily drumbeat of Chinese military planes flying close by, part of Beijing’s campaign to pressure the island it claims as its own. But lately, Taiwan has been facing an unexpected puzzle: Where have the planes gone?

台湾早已习惯了几乎每天都会响起的中国军机逼近的隆隆战鼓，这是北京对这个它声称拥有主权的岛屿施压行动的一部分。但最近，台湾面对着一个意想不到的谜团：那些飞机都去哪儿了？

For 12 of the past 13 days, no Chinese military flights were recorded near Taiwan. The sole exception was Sunday when two planes were seen approaching the island, according to daily data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

根据台湾国防部发布的每日数据，在过去的13天里，有12天未录得中国军机在台湾附近飞行。唯一的例外是周日，当时发现有两架飞机接近该岛。

“It is such a stark change from established behavior,” Ben Lewis, the founder of PLATracker, a website that collates the data from the Taiwanese defense ministry.

“这与长期以来的行为模式相比，是一个极其显著的变化，”汇总台湾国防部数据的网站PLATracker创始人本·刘易斯表示。

“This gap in activity is the longest we have seen since 2021,” Mr. Lewis said. That year, there was a three-week stretch that saw only five flights in total, and part of that time coincided with a tropical storm that churned around Taiwan. This time, the weather has been stable.

“这段活动真空期是自2021年以来我们见过的最长的一次，”刘易斯说。那一年曾有过一段持续三周的时间，总共只有五架次飞行，且其中一部分时间正值热带风暴在台湾周边肆虐。而这一次，天气状况一直很稳定。

Lulls in the number of People’s Liberation Army military flights are not new, including during China’s weeklong annual legislative session, which ends on Thursday. But in the past, there was still usually a smattering of flights at that time of year, according to the PLATracker. The fall was all the more striking against the buildup of Chinese military flights over recent years, Mr. Lewis said. Taiwan recorded about 10 Chinese military flights a day on average last year, and on some days the number went up to dozens.

解放军军机飞行数量的间歇性减少并非新鲜事，包括在中国为期一周的年度立法会议期间——该会议将于周四结束。但根据PLATracker的数据，往年这段时间通常仍会有零星的飞行。刘易斯表示，考虑到近年来中国军机活动规模的持续扩大，此次的下降显得尤为突兀。去年，台湾平均每天录得约10架次中国军机，有时一天甚至高达数十架次。

周一，出席中国全国人大年度会议的军队代表。

Analysts have offered several possible explanations, including that China may be setting the stage for President Trump’s planned summit with President Xi Jinping. China may also be trying to conserve fuel as oil prices rise because of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

分析人士提出了几种可能的解释，其中包括中国可能正在为习近平主席与特朗普总统计划中的峰会做铺垫。此外，由于美以对伊朗开战导致油价上涨，中国也可能正试图节省燃料。

Many experts pushed back on speculation that Beijing is deliberately reducing tensions as a prelude to military action.

许多专家反驳了有关北京正刻意缓解紧张局势，作为军事行动前奏的猜测。

China’s Ministry of National Defense has not commented on the falloff. Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, cautioned last week against reading the decline as a Chinese retreat from military threats against Taiwan.

中国国防部尚未就此次活动减少置评。台湾国防部长顾立雄上周发出提醒，告诫不要将这种减少解读为中国放弃对台军事威胁。

“We can’t simply look at whether the fighter aircraft are coming,” Mr. Koo told reporters in Taipei. “We need to look at a range of indicators.”

“我们不能只看攻机有没有来这个状况，”顾立雄在台北告诉记者，“我们还是要看各项的征候。”

Notably, the Chinese navy has not pulled back.

值得注意的是，中国海军并没有减少活动。

“We haven’t seen a comparable decrease in the reported number of P.L.A. naval vessels around Taiwan,” said Brian Hart, an expert in Washington, referring to the People’s Liberation Army. “The dip seems to be isolated to air activity.”

“我们并没有看到通报的台湾周边解放军海军舰艇数量出现类似的下降，”华盛顿专家、战略与国际研究中心中国实力项目副主任布莱恩·哈特表示，“这种下降似乎仅局限于空中活动。”

“Given the timing and the number of potential factors at play, it’s hard to say what exactly is shaping this behavior right now,” said Mr. Hart, who is the deputy director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

哈特说：“考虑到目前的时机和多种潜在因素的交织，很难确切说明究竟是什么在塑造当下的这种行为。”

He and other experts, as well as Taiwanese officials, will be watching to see whether the flights increase after China’s legislative session.

他和其他专家以及台湾官员将密切观察在中国立法会议结束后，飞行次数是否会回升。

今年1月，台湾士兵在台中举行的一场军事演习中展示青天白日旗。

Some analysts also said that Mr. Xi may be dialing back the flights ahead of the meeting with Mr. Trump in Beijing, which is scheduled for early April, to bolster his argument that it is Taiwan, and not China, that is provoking tensions between the sides.

一些分析人士还表示，习近平可能会在4月初北京会见特朗普之前减少飞行，以支持他的论点——在台海煽风点火的不是中国而是台湾。

Beijing has cast President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan as a dangerous separatist bent on rejecting the prospect of unification, and risking war. Many Taiwanese and many Western governments see China as being the aggressor, including through military exercises that simulate an invasion or blockage of the island.

北京将台湾总统赖清德定性为危险的“分裂分子”，认为他执意拒绝统一前景并甘冒战争风险。而许多台湾民众和西方政府则认为是中国咄咄逼人，包括通过模拟入侵或封锁岛屿的军事演习来施压。

Given that Mr. Trump’s administration is already engaged in war with Iran, “I think that Xi doesn’t want Trump to think that Beijing is adding to the trouble,” said Ou Hsi-fu, a deputy chief executive officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a body in Taipei that receives funds from Taiwan’s government.

考虑到特朗普政府已经卷入了与伊朗的战争，“我认为习不想让川普觉得北京在添乱，”受台湾政府资助的台北国防安全研究院副执行长欧锡富表示。

“Beijing wants the Xi-Trump summit to go ahead smoothly, maintaining China’s image as a great power on equal footing with the United States,” Mr. Ou said.

“北京还希望川习会顺利进行，保持与美国平起平坐的大国形象，”他说。

The military flights are the mostly widely noted public measure of Chinese military pressure on Taiwan; they have increased since 2020, accelerating after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taipei in 2022. China retaliated against that visit by flying jets, sailing ships and even firing missiles around the island.

军机飞行是外界关注度最高的中国对台军事压力指标；自2020年以来，此类活动不断增加，并在2022年时任美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问台北后加速。当时，中国通过出动战机、舰艇甚至在岛屿周边发射导弹进行了报复。

Some experts believe that the current reduction in flights may reflect disruption caused by the official purges in the Chinese air force, including in the Eastern Theater Command, the region of the Chinese military that oversees Taiwan. The Chinese armed forces have been shaken by widespread purges of generals and other top leaders.

一些专家认为，目前的飞行减少可能反映了中国空军内部官员清洗所导致的干扰，包括负责监督台湾区域的东部战区。中国武装力量此前因将领及其他高层领导人的广泛清洗而产生动荡。

Another possible factor may simply be that the air force is intentionally altering its training routines, said K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

美国亚洲研究局非常驻研究员汤广正(K. Tristan Tang)表示，另一个可能的因素或许只是空军在有意改变其训练常规。

“What we are seeing now has actually been developing for more than half a year,” Mr. Tang said, citing a recent pattern of more days without flights compared to the previous year. “The difference is that the decline has become much more noticeable recently.”

“我们现在看到的现象实际上已经发展了半年多，”他是指近期与去年相比，出现了更多“无飞行日”模式。“不同之处在于，这种下降在最近变得更加显而易见。”

Down a stairway and behind an unmarked door, dozens of men toil in a vast basement workshop in Ukraine. Wearing headlamps, they lean over circuit boards as wisps of smoke rise from soldering irons.

沿着楼梯往下，在一扇没有任何标记的门后面，几十名男子正在乌克兰一个巨大的地下车间里忙碌着。他们戴着头灯，俯身在电路板上工作，电烙铁升起缕缕烟雾。

A year ago, most Ukrainian defense companies could not produce these boards, which are key ingredients in small exploding drones. But this advance, among others, has helped the country reach a milestone: It can now make drones with no components imported from China.

一年前，大多数乌克兰国防企业还无法生产这些电路板，而它们正是小型自杀式无人机的关键部件。但这一进展以及其他突破帮助乌克兰达成了一个里程碑：如今它可以制造完全不依赖中国进口零部件的无人机。

Ukraine is prioritizing self-sufficiency in the production of drones as they increasingly dominate the battlefield. They now account for more than 90 percent of Russian casualties, according to Maj. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.

随着无人机在战场上日益占据主导地位，乌克兰正把重点放在无人机生产的自给自足上。乌克兰无人系统部队指挥官罗伯特·布罗夫迪少校表示，俄军伤亡现在有九成以上是由无人机造成的。

Drones are also playing a major role in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. The Iranian military has attacked countries in the region with hundreds of its Shahed drones, and the United States has used its own version of the Shahed for the first time in combat.

无人机在美以对伊朗的战争中也发挥着重要作用。伊朗军方动用数百架沙赫德无人机对其他中东国家发起袭击，而美国也首次在实战中使用了自己的沙赫德版本。

Ukraine will not be mass-producing drones with no Chinese components anytime soon, because it’s still much cheaper to use them. Given China’s dominance of global manufacturing, it is hard to define any drone as truly “China-free.” Many components made outside China still contain Chinese parts or raw materials.

不过，乌克兰短期内还不会大规模生产完全不含中国零部件的无人机，因为使用这些零部件仍然便宜得多。鉴于中国在全球制造业的主导地位，不含中国元素的无人机很那做到。许多在中国境外制造的零部件仍然含有中国的零件或原材料。

But Ukrainian officials believe it is important to make drones with as few components from China as possible, and to be able to continue making drones if Chinese supplies should be cut off.

但乌克兰官员认为，制造尽可能少用中国组件的无人机，并且在中国供应可能被切断的情况下能够继续制造无人机，这一点很重要。

Ukraine is one of many nations that have been working to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains. The United States has limited the use of Chinese products in military hardware and other critical systems over security concerns. In addition, global shocks in recent years have shown the vulnerabilities that come with making China the single source of any product.

乌克兰只是众多试图减少对中国供应链依赖的国家之一。出于安全考虑，美国已经限制在军用硬件和其他关键系统中使用中国产品。此外，近年来的全球冲击也表明，如果把中国作为某种产品的单一来源，将带来巨大的脆弱性。

乌克兰士兵走过扎波罗热地区一架俄罗斯第一人称视角无人机的残骸，摄于去年。

“Given the risks of sourcing components from China, which is unfriendly to us, the main task is to produce them in Ukraine,” Major Brovdi said in an interview. “The strength of the Ukrainian manufacturer lies in the fact that import substitution has already taken place.”

“考虑到从中国采购零部件的风险——而中国对我们并不友好——主要任务就是在乌克兰本土生产这些部件，”布罗夫迪少校在采访中说。“乌克兰制造商的优势在于，进口替代已经实现。”

Two companies in Ukraine that have built “China-free” drones were picked to compete for contracts in a Pentagon “drone dominance program” under which the United States plans to buy thousands of low-cost attack drones. One of the companies, Ukrainian Defense Drones Tech Corporation, where the men were soldering circuit boards in the basement workshop, was among 11 in all selected last week for possible American drone orders.

乌克兰两家制造“无中国零部件”无人机的企业被选中参与五角大楼“无人机主导计划”的合同竞争。根据这一计划，美国打算采购数千架低成本攻击无人机。其中一家是乌克兰国防无人机科技公司，也就是那些男子在地下车间焊接电路板的公司。该公司是上周最终入选可能获得美国无人机订单的11家企业之一。

Ukraine Defense Drones makes most of its own components, and European suppliers fill most of the gaps.

乌克兰国防无人机公司自行生产大部分零部件，其余则由欧洲的供应商填补。

That reflects a sea change over the course of the war. In the first year after the Russian invasion in February 2022, nearly all of Ukraine’s drones came from China.

这反映出了俄乌战争期间的一个巨大变化。在2022年2月俄罗斯入侵后的第一年，乌克兰几乎所有的无人机都来自中国。

As demand surged, Beijing imposed export restrictions in 2023 and expanded them in 2024. While China is officially neutral in the war, experts say that Beijing has given its partner Russia preferential access to components that can still be exported.

随着需求激增，北京于2023年实施了出口限制，并于2024年扩大了限制范围。虽然中国在战争中官方保持中立，但专家表示，北京让其伙伴俄罗斯在获取仍可出口的组件方面享有优先待遇。

As the rules tightened, Ukraine resorted to middlemen to buy some parts, and Ukrainian companies began to view the Chinese market as increasingly unreliable. Kyiv turned its focus to building its own drones, and eventually to doing so with fewer Chinese components.

随着中国出口管制的收紧，乌克兰不得不通过中间商购买一些零件，而乌克兰公司也开始认为中国市场越来越不可靠。基辅将重心转向自行生产无人机，并逐渐减少对中国零部件的依赖。

By 2024, the vast majority of drones that Ukraine sent to the front were assembled domestically — but still almost entirely with Chinese components. A year later, however, the share of parts from China in Ukraine’s drones had fallen to about 38 percent, according to the Ukrainian Council of Defense Industry and the Snake Island Institute, a think tank in Kyiv.

到2024年，乌克兰送往前线的绝大多数无人机都是国内组装的——但几乎所有零部件仍来自中国。不过一年之后，根据乌克兰国防工业委员会和基辅智库蛇岛研究所的数据，乌克兰无人机中来自中国的零部件比例已降至约38%。

Ukraine still buys cheaper Chinese components because the Ukrainian military needs huge numbers of drones and has a limited budget to buy them. Drone missions fail at very high rates, another reason that Ukraine tries to keep costs down.

乌克兰仍然购买价格更便宜的中国零部件，因为乌克兰军方的无人机需求量巨大，而预算又有限。无人机任务失败率也非常高，这也是乌克兰努力压低成本的原因之一。

According to a Ukrainian official who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive procurement issues, Ukrainian and Russian companies often buy parts from the same factories in China. Chinese bosses, the official said, keep a precise schedule at production sites so that Ukrainian and Russian buyers do not cross paths.

一名乌克兰官员表示，乌克兰和俄罗斯的公司往往从中国同一家工厂采购零部件。由于涉及敏感采购问题，这名官员要求匿名。他说，中国的工厂老板会精确安排生产时间表，以避免乌克兰和俄罗斯的买家在工厂相遇。

Col. Pavlo Palisa, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office and a military adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Kyiv was scaling up domestic weapons production in part to strengthen its hand in peace negotiations.

乌克兰总统办公室副主任、总统泽连斯基的军事顾问帕夫洛·帕利萨上校表示，基辅正在扩大国内武器生产，部分是为了在和平谈判中增强自己的筹码。

“If we import, that means dependency, and any dependency means a weaker position,” he said in an interview.

“如果我们依赖进口，就意味着依赖别人，而任何依赖都会让我们处于更弱的地位，”他在采访中说。

Expanding the sources of components, Colonel Palisa said, would make China less likely to impose further export restrictions, knowing that they would have a limited effect. “When there are alternatives, they don’t act up as much,” he said.

帕利萨上校表示，扩大零部件来源也会促使中国不愿进一步实施出口限制，因为知道那样的效果有限。“当存在替代方案时，他们就不会那么轻易采取限制措施，”他说。

Ukrainian Defense Drones, under the brand name F-Drones, produces exploding first-person-view quadcopter drones that have been used more than any other drone to destroy Russian heavy equipment.

乌克兰国防无人机公司以F-Drones品牌生产第一人称视角四轴旋翼攻击无人机，这种无人机在摧毁俄罗斯重型装备方面的使用率超过任何其他类型的无人机。

“The country was saved by $500 drones,” said Hnat Buyakin, the company’s founder, referring to the beginning of the war in 2022, when Ukraine was at a heavy disadvantage to Russia in personnel and ammunition. Soldiers improvised, modifying cheap Chinese drones in makeshift workshops along the front line to drop handmade bombs.

“拯救这个国家的是价值500美元的无人机，”该公司创始人赫纳特·布亚金说，他指的是2022年战争初期，当时乌克兰在人员和弹药方面远远落后于俄罗斯。士兵们临时想办法，在前线附近的简陋作坊里改装廉价的中国无人机，用来投掷自制炸弹。

Ukrainian Defense Drones began making drones in 2023. Initially, all of its components were Chinese. Within a year, however, it had localized production of carbon fiber frames and antennas.

乌克兰国防无人机公司在2023年开始制造无人机。最初所有零部件都来自中国。然而一年之内，它就实现了碳纤维机架和天线的本土生产。

去年，在哈尔科夫地区，乌克兰士兵在掩体里制造无人机。

It is precision work. “These antennas are a separate kind of magic — a millimeter deviation in the wire and it doesn’t work properly,” Mr. Buyakin said. The company now produces up to 15,000 antennas a day.

这是一项精密工作。“这些天线是另一种意义上的魔法——导线只要偏差一毫米，就无法正常工作，”布亚金说。公司现在每天最多可以生产1.5万根天线。

By 2025, Ukrainian Defense Drones had expanded to produce flight controllers, speed regulators, radio modems and video transmission systems. Essentially, all its components were made in Ukraine except for the cameras.

到2025年，乌克兰国防无人机公司的产品扩展到飞控系统、速度调节器、无线电调制解调器和视频传输系统。基本上，除了摄像头外，所有部件都在乌克兰制造。

The company has since gained technology for cameras, too, which it hopes to produce in Europe. For now, it buys cameras from another Ukrainian company that imports parts from Europe.

该公司此后也获得了摄像头技术，并希望在欧洲生产。目前，它从另一家从欧洲进口零部件的乌克兰公司采购摄像头。

Mr. Buyakin described the limits to “China-free” production. While his company makes carbon frames for drones, for example, the carbon itself is imported, usually from China, because that is cheaper.

布亚金也谈到了“无中国零部件”生产的局限性。例如，他的公司虽然生产无人机的碳纤维机架，但碳纤维材料本身通常仍需要进口，往往来自中国，因为那样更便宜。

Batteries that power drones are also still largely produced in China, which dominates supply chains for battery materials like lithium and rare-earth metals.

为无人机供电的电池目前也大多在中国生产，因为中国在锂和稀土金属等电池材料供应链中占据主导地位。

Ukraine has lithium deposits, but they are undeveloped. Investing in them has been a goal of a Ukrainian agreement with the United States on mineral development.

乌克兰拥有锂矿藏，但尚未开发。投资这些资源一直是乌克兰与美国达成的矿产开发协议的目标之一。

Ukraine’s goals do not end at producing drones without Chinese components. Designs in Ukraine are updated monthly based on battlefield performance, a contrast with the slow pace of traditional weapons production.

乌克兰的目标不仅仅是生产不含中国零部件的无人机。乌克兰的无人机设计会根据战场表现进行每月更新，这与传统武器生产缓慢的节奏形成鲜明对比。

In his company’s move toward China-free manufacturing, Mr. Buyakin said, “We deliberately chose the most difficult path because Ukraine is now fighting for its place in a technological war, and we are gaining this experience with our own blood.”

谈到公司“去中国化”的转型努力时，布亚金说：“我们故意选择了一条最困难的道路，因为乌克兰正在一场技术战争中争夺立足之地，而我们正在用鲜血换取这份经验。”

In the political annals of the Islamic Republic of Iran, one of the first notorious public episodes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, the man just named as the country’s new supreme leader, occurred during the 2005 presidential election.

伊朗伊斯兰共和国政治史册记载的诸多臭名昭著的公开事件中，最早的一桩涉及新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的事件，发生在2005年总统大选期间。

After a dark-horse candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, surged abruptly into a runoff and eventual victory, the reformist politician who unexpectedly lost wrote an open letter to the supreme leader accusing his son Mojtaba of manipulating the vote.

当时，黑马候选人马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德异军突起，进入了决选，并最终获胜。那位意外落败的改革派政治人士随后给最高领袖写了一封公开信，指责其子穆杰塔巴操纵选票。

“You are well aware that the unwise intervention of the relatives and aides of some religious and political officials in the past has had a very negative consequence,” the opposition candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, wrote in the letter, published by two newspapers that were forced to suspend publication afterward.

“您很清楚，过去某些宗教和政治官员的亲属及助手不明智地干预政务，已经造成了极其负面的后果，”反对派候选人迈赫迪·卡鲁比在信中写道。该信由两家报纸刊发，它们随后被强令停刊。

Ever since, Mr. Khamenei has had the reputation of operating in the shadows, using the power of his father’s office to manipulate events in the Islamic republic in favor of the hard-line faction.

自此以后，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊便背负了在影子中运作的名声，利用其父的权力来操纵伊斯兰共和国的事务，使其向强硬派阵营倾斜。

That headquarters of the supreme leader, which he is now inheriting from his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has always played an outsize role in the country’s affairs.

他目前从父亲阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊手中继承的最高领袖办事机构，在该国事务中一直发挥着超乎寻常的作用。

周一在德黑兰，伊朗民众手持穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊及其父亲的海报，表达对新任最高领袖的支持。

In the 37 years that the elder Mr. Khamenei ruled before being killed in an American and Israeli attack, he transformed the office from a traditional religious affairs bureau with a political cast into a national security juggernaut with oversight of the military, intelligence, the economy, foreign affairs and, of course, the clergy.

在遭美以袭击身亡前，老哈梅内伊的37年执政将该机构从一个带有政治色彩的传统宗教事务局，转型为一个掌控军事、情报、经济、外交以及宗教界的国家安全巨无霸。

“Under Khamenei, it became a complete security, political and economic state within a state,” said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee who coauthored a report last January about the transformation.

“在哈梅内伊治下，它变成了一个集安全、政治和经济于一体的完整的‘国中之国’，”田纳西大学政治学教授赛义德·戈尔卡表示，他于去年1月参与撰写了一份关于这一转型的报告。

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, the second of four sons, was already considered the “mini supreme leader” advising his father on the office’s web of operations, Mr. Golkar added. His three brothers also worked there in advisory roles.

戈尔卡补充道，56岁的穆杰塔巴是四个儿子中的次子，此前已被视为“迷你最高领袖”，负责就该办事机构复杂的运作网络向其父提供建议。他的三个兄弟也在那里担任顾问职务。

President Trump has said that his assault on Iran should give him a role in picking the country’s next leader. Asked about the younger Mr. Khamenei at a news conference on Monday, Mr. Trump said, “We think it’s going to lead to more of the same problems for the country, so I was disappointed.” Analysts considered the choice a sign of the regime’s seeking continuity amid the tumult of the war.

特朗普总统曾表示，他对伊朗的打击应让他有权参与挑选该国的下一任领导人。在周一的新闻发布会上被问及小哈梅内伊时，特朗普说：“我们认为这会导致这个国家面临更多同样的问题，所以我感到很失望。”分析人士认为，这一选择标志着该政权在战争动荡中寻求连续性。

The name of the office is Bayt-e Rahbari in Farsi, meaning the House of the Supreme Leader, often known simply as the Bayt.

该办事机构的波斯语名称是Bayt-e Rahbari，意为“最高领袖府”，通常简称为“贝特”(Bayt)。

In Shiite Islam, tradition dictates that an ayatollah should establish a bayt to interact with followers on religious questions and to organize matters like charity. A son is often delegated to run it.

依据什叶派伊斯兰教传统，阿亚图拉应建立一个“贝特”，以便与信徒沟通宗教问题并组织慈善等事务。通常会委派一名儿子来负责管理。

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, added a political element to that model. When the ayatollah began fading before his death in 1989, his son Ahmad Khomeini became his gatekeeper. That prompted considerable grumbling about excessive interference by the Bayt, especially after Ahmad was accused of torpedoing as too liberal the main candidate expected to succeed Ayatollah Khomeini.

伊斯兰革命创始人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼为这一模式增添了政治色彩。当霍梅尼在1989年去世前身体每况愈下时，其子艾哈迈德·霍梅尼成为了他的“守门人”。这引发了关于贝特过度干预的强烈不满，尤其是艾哈迈德被指控排挤了一位被认为过于自由派的领袖继承人。

1979年，阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼（中）与其子艾哈迈德·霍梅尼（左一）结束在法国的流亡，回到德黑兰。

The secretive Bayt that the next leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, established was on a different order of magnitude. While the previous Bayt had dozens of employees, said Mr. Golkar, 4,000 people now work there, and 40,000 more are affiliated throughout the government.

继任领袖哈梅内伊建立的这个神秘的贝特，其规模完全不可同日而语。戈尔卡表示，之前的贝特只有数十名雇员，而现在那里有4000人，另外在政府各部门还有4万名下属人员。

Ayatollah Khamenei created mirror offices for every government ministry, appointing powerful deputies for foreign affairs, education, cultural affairs and other departments who were all given a mandate to ensure that government policy conformed to his wishes. Other teams steer military and intelligence matters. Mr. Trump imposed sanctions on the supreme leader’s office in 2019.

哈梅内伊为每一个政府部委都设立了镜像办公室，任命掌握重权的副手负责外交、教育、文化等部门，授权他们确保政府政策符合其意志。另有团队操控军事和情报事务。特朗普曾于2019年对最高领袖办公室实施制裁。

Lacking venerable religious credentials or popular support when he became supreme leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei set about consolidating his power through the security services and his Bayt.

1989年接任最高领袖时，由于缺乏宗教资历或民意支持，哈梅内伊着手通过安全部门和他的贝特来巩固权力。

Given his reliance on the security services to crack down on increasingly frequent waves of dissent, including fatally shooting thousands of street protesters months ago, Ayatollah Khamenei had surrounded himself with the military commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

鉴于他依赖安全部门镇压日益频繁的反抗浪潮（包括数月前射杀数千名街头抗议者），哈梅内伊身边一直环绕着伊斯兰革命卫队的指挥官。

The religious weight of the office declined further with the younger Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The son is a mid-ranking cleric, even if official statements immediately started referring to him as an “ayatollah.”

华盛顿保卫民主基金会高级研究员贝南·本·塔勒布卢表示，随着小哈梅内伊的任命，该职位的宗教分量进一步下降。尽管官方声明立即开始称其为“阿亚图拉”，但这位儿子其实只是名中层神职人员。

“Neither Khamenei was religiously qualified for the position, and it is almost certain that the new supreme leader will emulate his father and cultivate security ties,” said Mr. Taleblu.

“两位哈梅内伊在宗教层面上都不具备担任该职位的资格。几乎可以肯定，新任最高领袖将效仿其父，继续经营他与安全部门的关系，”塔勒布卢说。

The son is considered even more entwined with the Guards, particularly since he vetted the appointments of the latest generation of commanders and his history with them goes back to his teenage years, when he served in a noncombat role toward the end of the Iran-Iraq war, said Mr. Golkar.

戈尔卡指出，这位儿子被认为与革命卫队的关系更加盘根错节，特别是考虑到他曾负责审核最新一代将领的任命，且他与卫队的渊源可追溯到青少年时期——在两伊战争末期，他曾在其中担任非战斗职务。

Mojtaba Khamenei, who was 22 when his father took over as supreme leader, matured within the Bayt. Throughout those years, the regime’s authoritarian bent has increasingly overshadowed the theocracy that first emerged from the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在父亲接掌最高权力时年仅22岁，他在贝特内部逐渐成熟。在这些年里，该政权的威权倾向渐渐压过1979年伊斯兰革命产生的神权体制。

“Iran has already moved from a theocratic regime to the theocratic security system under Khamenei, and now it is moving toward a more complete security state under Mojtaba,” said Mr. Golkar.

“在哈梅内伊治下，伊朗已经从神权政体转变为神权安全体系；而现在，在穆杰塔巴治下，它正向一个更彻底的安全国家演变，”戈尔卡说。