Dr. Jay Miller’s once-in-a-lifetime family vacation to India took an unexpected twist on Feb. 28 when his Qatar Airways flight to Dallas made a U-turn about an hour after taking off from Doha, Qatar.

杰伊·米勒医生原本千载难逢的全家赴印度度假之旅在2月28日出现了意想不到的转折——当时他乘坐的卡塔尔航空飞往达拉斯的航班在从卡塔尔多哈起飞约一小时后突然掉头返航。

Israel and the United States had attacked Iran, which was launching rockets and drones in retaliation. Countries across the Middle East, including Qatar, had closed their airspace and canceled flights, stranding tens of thousands of travelers.

以色列和美国对伊朗发动袭击，而伊朗则以火箭和无人机进行报复。包括卡塔尔在内的多个中东国家关闭了领空并取消航班，数以万计的旅客因此滞留。

Back on the ground in Doha, Dr. Miller heard explosions so powerful that his hotel room’s windows shook.

回到多哈地面后，米勒医生听到了剧烈的爆炸声，他酒店房间的窗户都在震动。

“It was one of the moments when you tell your spouse you love them, which I did,” he said.

“那是一种会让你对配偶说‘我爱你’的时刻——我确实这么说了，”他说。

Dr. Miller, a 45-year-old pulmonary and critical care specialist, had left India a week earlier than his wife, Swathi Narra, and 5-year-old daughter, Devi, to return to his patients. It was Devi’s first trip to the country, and the family had seen wild leopards and visited the village where Swathi’s deceased father grew up.

45岁的米勒医生是一名肺病与重症监护专家。因为有病人要照顾，他比妻子斯瓦蒂·纳拉和五岁的女儿德维提前一周离开印度。那是德维第一次到印度旅行，一家人看到了野生豹子，还去了斯瓦蒂已故父亲成长的村子。

Now, he would be spending the next five nights alone in Doha on an emotional roller coaster, trying to distract himself by cautiously exploring the city. Some of his fellow guests at the Andaz Doha, too afraid even to go to their rooms on higher floors, sheltered in the hotel lobby all day.

现在，他将在多哈独自度过接下来的五个夜晚，情绪像坐过山车一样起伏，只能小心翼翼地在城里逛逛，试图分散注意力。一同住在多哈安达仕酒店的一些住客也和他一样，因为太害怕，甚至不敢回到高楼层的房间，整天呆在酒店大堂里。

He tried calling the U.S. State Department, filling out forms, and reaching out to Louisiana politicians — all fruitless. By Wednesday, a day after the State Department announced that travelers should not rely on the U.S. government to evacuate them, he decided to escape the region any way he could.

他尝试给美国国务院打电话、填写各种表格、联系路易斯安那州的政客——全都徒劳无功。到周三，也就是国务院宣布旅客不应指望美国政府会将他们撤离的第二天，他决定要不惜一切代价离开这个地区。

He and Swathi, still in India, furiously searched for flights that would get him anywhere outside the Middle East. The Doha airport was still closed, and flight options were scarce. Some jets were departing from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a roughly nine-hour drive away. Dr. Miller tried his luck.

他和仍在印度的斯瓦蒂疯狂地搜索能让他前往中东以外任何地方的航班。多哈机场仍然关闭，航班选择极为有限。有些航班从沙特阿拉伯的利雅得起飞，到那里大约有九个小时的车程。米勒医生决定碰碰运气。

He found a spot on a flight from Riyadh to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, selecting it because the departure time was a good fit given the long overland journey. He quickly applied online for visas to the two countries.

他弄到了一张从利雅得飞往埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴的机票，选择这个航班是因为考虑到漫长的陆路旅程，它的起飞时间很合适。他迅速在网上申请了这两个国家的签证。

“We felt we had to move on our own. There was not time or the circumstances to wait for someone,” he said, adding that an itinerary that initially felt “so crazy and far-fetched” no longer was.

他说，“我们觉得只能靠自己行动了。没有时间，也没有条件再等待别人来帮忙”，并补充道，一开始看起来“疯狂而难以想象”的行程，现在变得不再那么不可思议。

He hired a hotel-recommended driver to take him to the border with Saudi Arabia, then had to find another to get him through the visa and customs checkpoints, and a third to drive him from the border to King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. In all, the car services cost about $3,000.

他雇了酒店推荐的司机送他到沙特边境，然后必须另找一位司机带他通过签证和海关检查站，再找第三位司机把他从边境送到利雅得的哈立德国王国际机场。总共下来，车费约3000美元。

During a phone interview as the car sped across the Saudi desert, Dr. Miller said that his anxiety spiked each time the vehicle passed through routine checkpoints. His overwhelming emotions were “desperation and fear and anxiety to just flee and get out.”

在汽车穿越沙特沙漠时，接受电话采访的米勒医生说，每当车辆通过例行检查站，他的焦虑都会骤然上升。他当时排山倒海的情绪就是：“绝望、恐惧和焦虑，只想赶紧逃离这里。”

When he arrived at the airport in Riyadh on Thursday evening, the terminal was eerily quiet, with most of the departures — to places like Abu Dhabi, Delhi, Hong Kong and Colombo, Sri Lanka — canceled. Sitting in an empty airline lounge, he nervously awaited his 3:40 a.m. flight to Addis Ababa.

周四晚上，当他抵达利雅得机场时，航站楼内异常冷清，大多数前往阿布扎比、德里、香港和斯里兰卡科伦坡等地的航班都被取消了。坐在空荡荡的航空公司贵宾休息室里，他紧张地等待着凌晨3点40分飞往亚的斯亚贝巴的航班。

That flight, operated by Ethiopian Airlines, was packed. He barely slept a wink.

这趟由埃塞俄比亚航空运营的航班座无虚席。他几乎一夜未合眼。

Ethiopia had not been on Dr. Miller’s travel wish list before this trip.

在这次旅行之前，埃塞俄比亚从未出现在米勒医生的旅行愿望清单上。

But he had 15 hours to fill in Addis Ababa after his flight landed at 6:40 a.m. on Friday, and he didn’t feel like spending them at the airport. Though he was running on empty, he seized the chance to visit the National Museum of Ethiopia, home to the skeleton of Lucy, a 3.2-million-year-old hominin that was discovered in the country in 1974. As a self-described die-hard disciple of Charles Darwin, Dr. Miller joked by text message that there was no way he’d miss the chance to see “my one true love.”

不过，他的航班在周五早上6点40分抵达亚的斯亚贝巴后，他还有15个小时需要打发，他并不想一直留在机场里。尽管已经筋疲力尽，他还是抓住机会参观了埃塞俄比亚国家博物馆。那里收藏着露西的骨骼——这是一具1974年在埃塞俄比亚发现、距今320万年的古人类化石。作为一个自称达尔文铁杆信徒的人，米勒医生在短信中开玩笑说，他绝不会错过见到“我唯一真正挚爱”的机会。

He also sought out a strong cup of coffee, a beverage Ethiopia is famous for.

他还去找了一杯浓咖啡，这是埃塞俄比亚闻名于世的特产。

He arrived back at the airport about three hours ahead of his 10:40 p.m. departure, but it still turned out to be a close call. To keep him from missing his flight, airport employees whisked him to the front of the security line. His passport was checked five times.

他在晚上10点40分航班起飞前三个小时回到机场，但时间仍然十分紧张。为了避免误机，机场工作人员把他直接带到安检队伍最前面。他的护照被检查了五次。

He still had many grueling miles to go. His Chicago-bound Ethiopian Airways flight made a refueling stop in Rome six and a half hours later, but passengers did not disembark. Then, with its tanks filled, it took off for Chicago, where it landed shortly before 8 a.m. on Saturday, about a full week after his first flight made its midair U-turn.

他前面还有漫长而煎熬的路程。他乘坐的这架飞往芝加哥的埃塞俄比亚航空航班在六半小时后经停罗马加油，但乘客并未下机。随后，加满油的飞机起飞前往芝加哥，于周六早上快8点时降落，此时距离他第一趟航班在空中掉头已过去差不多整整一周。

At O’Hare International Airport, he faced a potential gantlet passing through U.S. customs and immigration, which has been affected by the ongoing shutdown in Department of Homeland Security funding. Even without Global Entry, an expedited entry program the government suspended because of the shutdown, the line moved at a steady clip. Dr. Miller collected his checked bag and waited three hours for his next departure, a United Airlines flight to New Orleans.

在芝加哥奥黑尔国际机场，他不得不面对美国海关和移民局的关卡考验。由于国土安全部资金持续中断，这一流程也受到影响。即使没有使用全球快速通关计划——这个原本可以快速通关的项目因为政府停摆而暂停——队伍仍以稳速向前移动。米勒医生取回托运行李，然后又等待了三个小时，搭乘下一趟飞往新奥尔良的美联航航班。

Despite being in the homestretch, he almost didn’t take off. Backing out from the gate at O’Hare, the plane struck a baggage cart. But the flight was still able to depart, and it landed in New Orleans a little after 2 p.m. on Saturday. It had been more than 60 hours since he fled Qatar, and in all, Dr. Miller estimated, the journey home cost almost $10,000.

尽管已接近旅程的尾声，他差点还是没能起飞。在奥黑尔机场退出登机口时，飞机撞上了一辆行李车。但航班仍得以起飞，并于周六下午两点多降落在新奥尔良。自他逃离卡塔尔以来，已经过去了60多个小时，米勒医生估计，这趟回家之旅总共花费了近1万美元。

About an hour later, he stepped into his house in the Marigny and cracked open a beer. That night, he slept 16 uninterrupted hours. The State Department finally called him back that evening, but he was fast asleep in his own bed. The call went to voice mail.

大约一个小时后，他回到了位于新奥尔良马里尼的家中，打开了一瓶啤酒。那天晚上，他一口气睡了16个小时。国务院终于在那天晚上给他回了电话，但他在自己床上睡得正香。电话转到了语音信箱。

The spike in oil prices precipitated by the American and Israeli attack on Iran is rippling throughout global economies. On Monday, the price of oil rose to nearly $120 a barrel, before settling back down to around $90 after President Trump suggested the war could be over soon. Oil was about $70 a barrel before the conflict began on Feb. 28. Jet fuel rose more than 58 percent as of March 6 compared to the week before, according to the International Air Transport Association.

美以袭击伊朗引发的油价飙升正在全球经济中传导蔓延。周一，油价一度逼近每桶120美元，随后在特朗普总统表示战争可能很快结束后回落至90美元左右。2月28日冲突爆发前，油价约为每桶70美元。国际航空运输协会数据显示，截至3月6日，航空燃油价格较前一周上涨超过58%。

Market volatility only adds to the confusion around flight prices. But the last time oil rose more than 40 percent — in 2022, on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — airfares jumped 28 percent.

市场波动只会让机票价格更加混乱。而上一次油价涨幅超40%是在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，当时机票价格随之大涨28%。

So far, no American carrier has announced price hikes. But they are beginning to trickle in elsewhere: Air New Zealand and SAS, for instance, are among the international airlines that have recently announced fare increases tied to the rising price of jet fuel.

到目前为止，美国尚无航空公司宣布涨价，但其他地区已开始陆续提价：例如，新西兰航空和北欧航空等国际航司近期已宣布因航空燃油价格上涨上调票价。

For airlines today, the cost of flying has sharply increased, but will they pass those costs on to consumers and, if so, how? We asked experts to weigh in on the potential effects travelers may feel.

如今，对航空公司而言，飞行成本已大幅上升，但它们会将这些成本转嫁给乘客吗？如果会，又会以何种方式？我们请教了专家，分析旅客可能感受到的潜在影响。

How will higher oil prices affect the cost of a ticket?

油价上涨将如何影响机票价格？

Fuel is the second-largest expense, after labor, for an airline. In the United States, most carriers stopped the practice of hedging against oil spikes long ago, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations.

燃油是航空公司仅次于人力成本的第二大支出。在美国，多数航司早已停止对油价上涨进行对冲操作，这使其更容易受到市场波动影响。

Asked last week at an academic event about rising airfares linked to surging oil prices, United Airlines’ chief executive, Scott Kirby, said the effect of higher fuel costs on airfares would “probably start quick.” (Asked for comment, a representative for United said it had “nothing additional to add.”)

上周在一场学术活动中，美联航首席执行官斯科特·柯比被问及与油价飙升相关的机票涨价问题时表示，燃油成本上涨对机票价格的影响“可能很快就会开始显现”。（美联航发言人在被要求置评时表示“没有更多补充”。）

“The second he said it, that gave airlines permission to increase fares,” said Henry H. Harteveldt, the president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.

“他这话一出口，就等于给所有航空公司开了涨价的绿灯，”旧金山旅行研究咨询公司大气研究集团总裁亨利·哈特维尔特说。

But how — and how much — costs may rise is unclear. Mr. Harteveldt noted that airlines have many ways to recoup ballooning fuel expenses beyond a blanket increase, including charging more for tickets in business and first class, where the pinch may sting less; raising fees for ancillary services like checking bags or assigning seats; eliminating or reducing the number of seats sold for the lowest fares on certain routes; consolidating departures; or increasing fuel surcharges on international flights.

但成本会以何种方式上涨、上涨多少，目前仍不明确。哈特维尔特指出，除全面涨价外，航空公司还有多种方式弥补不断攀升的燃油成本，包括提高价格敏感度较低的商务舱、头等舱票价；提高托运行李、选座等附加服务费用；取消或减少部分航线的最低价座位；合并航班；提高国际航班燃油附加费。

“All of these are ways airlines can push travelers into paying more for flights,” he said.

“所有这些方式都可以让旅客为航班支付更多费用，”他说。

Are all airlines affected equally?

所有航空公司受到的影响都一样吗？

Wherever they fly, low-cost carriers are more likely to suffer compared with competitors.

无论航线如何，低成本航空公司受到的冲击都将大于竞争对手。

“Budget airlines such as Spirit and Frontier are in the toughest position,” said Julian Kheel, the founder and chief executive of Points Path, a service that compares cash airfares to paying with points. “Carriers with premium cabins have the option to shift some fuel costs onto business and first-class travelers, who are relatively insensitive to price increases. But low-cost carriers don’t have that cushion, which means their passengers will bear the full brunt.”

“精神航空、边疆航空这类廉航处境最为艰难，”旅行积分比价服务Points Path创始人兼首席执行官朱利安·基尔表示。“设有高端舱位的航司可以将部分燃油成本转嫁给商务舱和头等舱旅客，这类乘客对涨价相对不敏感。但廉航没有这种缓冲，意味着乘客将承担全部冲击。”

But that doesn’t mean major global carriers won’t have to adjust prices. The efficiency of planes, often related to their age or engineering, and the distance they fly help determine how much fuel an airline consumes.

但这并不意味着大型国际航司无需调整价格。飞机的燃油效率（通常与机龄和设计相关）以及飞行距离都会决定航空公司的燃油消耗量。

“In addition to rising jet fuel prices, the war is creating a double hit for airlines, as many international flights now also have to detour around closed airspace, which means burning even more fuel,” said Mr. Kheel.

“除了航空燃油价格上涨，战争还给航空公司带来双重打击——许多国际航班现在必须绕开关闭的空域，这意味着消耗更多燃油，”基尔说。

The disruptions, restrictions and closures in Gulf cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha — critical aviation hubs for global traffic — are likely to affect pricing as well as routing. To avoid transiting through that region, international fliers are increasingly turning to Europe, which may tighten availability there and push prices higher.

迪拜、阿布扎比、多哈等海湾城市关键航空枢纽的混乱、管制与关闭也可能影响票价与航线。为避免过境该地区，国际航班正日益转向欧洲，这可能导致欧洲航线座位紧张、价格上涨。

How long will the situation last?

这种情况会持续多久？

No one knows how long the war will last, but historically, airfares have mirrored surges in the price of oil.

没人知道战争会持续多久，但从历史来看，机票价格会紧跟油价波动。

“If you look at prices in past oil crises in 2022 and 2008, you see spikes in flight prices,” said Scott Keyes, the founder of Going.com, a service devoted to finding cheap airfares.

“回顾2022年和2008年石油危机期间的价格，就能发现机票价格都出现了飙升，”廉价机票平台Going.com创始人斯科特·凯斯说。

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed up oil prices for much of the year, when the average U.S. annual inflation rate was 8 percent. In that case, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production, which helped bring prices down, said Mr. Harteveldt.

2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高了全年大部分时间的油价，当年美国平均通胀率达8%。哈特维尔特表示，当时石油输出国组织增加了产量，帮助压低了价格。

“We don’t know the end game with this war,” he said.

“我们不知道当前这场战争最终会走向何方，”他说。

Postwar recovery may add to the costs.

战后恢复也可能增加成本。

“The biggest factor impacting airfares is how long this all lasts,” said Mr. Keyes, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet from the Persian Gulf, which handles an estimated 20 percent of global oil supply. “The longer the shutdown, the longer it takes to get going.”

“影响机票价格的最大因素是这一切会持续多久，”凯斯说，并提到承担全球约20%石油供应的波斯湾出口通道霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。“封锁时间越长，恢复正常就越慢。”

Should I buy an airline ticket now?

我应该现在就买机票吗？

Consumers may have to hedge their bets on upcoming summer travel. The best way to do that is to ensure you are booking a penalty-free flight that will offer a flight credit or refund if you cancel. That way, in the best-case scenario, if the airfare falls, you can cancel and use the credit to rebook at a lower airfare.

消费者可能需要为即将到来的夏季旅行做好风险对冲。最佳方式是预订可免退改手续费的机票——若取消可获得机票代金券或退款。这样一来，在最佳情况下，如果后续票价下跌，你可以取消订单，用代金券重新预订更低价格的航班。

Most legacy carriers, but not their low-cost peers, still offer tickets that, if changed, give you a credit to use on a future flight, usually within a year. This does not apply to most basic economy fares, so book carefully.

大多数传统航空公司（但不包括廉航）仍提供改签后可获未来一年内有效代金券的机票。此政策不适用于大多数基础经济舱票价，因此预订时需留意。

“If you’re concerned about the price dropping later, you’re not out of luck,” said Mr. Keyes. “All things considered, I would be booking sooner rather than later but also checking the price after booking to see if it drops.”

“如果你担心之后价格下跌，也并非毫无办法，”凯斯说。“综合考虑，我建议尽早预订，但预订后也要关注价格是否下跌。”

In his 35 years, Balendra Shah has been a rapper, a mayor, an engineer and an unswerving fan of rectangular sunglasses. He is now on the brink of becoming Nepal’s youngest-ever prime minister after his party scored a landslide victory in elections last week.

现年35岁的巴伦德拉·沙阿是一名说唱歌手、市长、工程师，还是矩形墨镜的忠实拥趸。在上周的选举中，他领导的政党取得了压倒性胜利，使他即将成为尼泊尔历史上最年轻的总理。

The vote was the first since a Gen Z-led uprising last year overthrew a government that many Nepalis viewed as corrupt and out of touch. The Rastriya Swatantra Party, a young political force that positioned itself as the inheritor of the Gen Z revolution, received the largest mandate in Nepal’s modern electoral history, winning a significant majority of 275 parliamentary seats, according to official results released on Tuesday. Mr. Shah, a millennial with an often aggressive and aggrieved style on social media, is its pick to lead Nepal.

去年，一场由“Z世代”领导的起义推翻了被视为腐败且脱离群众的旧政府，本次投票正是该事件后的首次大选。周二公布的官方结果显示，以这场革命的继承者自居的政治新兴力量——国家自由党获得了尼泊尔现代选举史上最广泛的授权，赢得了议会275个席位中的绝对多数。该党推举的领导人沙阿是一名千禧一代，他在社交媒体上以激进且充满“愤青”色彩的风格著称。

Why did people vote for him?

为什么选民会投给他？

Technically, Nepal’s electorate picked the R.S.P. But many Nepalis did not cast their ballots last Thursday for a party; they voted for Balen, as Mr. Shah is popularly known.

理论上尼泊尔选民选择的是国家自由党。但上周四，许多选民投票并非为了政党，而是为了“巴伦”(Balen)——这是民众对沙阿的亲昵称呼。

“People are saying, ‘Balen is a savior for Nepal,’” said Sanjeev Humagain, a political scientist at Nepal Open University. “They’re saying, in a populist way, that he’s a god.”

尼泊尔公开大学的政治学者桑吉夫·胡马盖表示：“人们在说‘巴伦是尼泊尔的救世主’。从民粹主义的角度来看，他们几乎把他神化了。”

上周选举日，选民们在加德满都的巴桑塔布尔杜巴广场排队。

A socially conscious rapper, Mr. Shah has prided himself in not being bound to Nepal’s political establishment. Four years ago, he successfully ran as an independent for mayor of Kathmandu, the nation’s capital. He cultivated an image of a politician who got things done — tackling waste management, improving education and delivering health care — precisely because he wasn’t beholden to the ossified hierarchy of party politics.

作为一名具有社会意识的说唱歌手，沙阿一直以不依附于尼泊尔政治权贵而自豪。四年前，他以独立候选人身份成功当选首都加德满都的市长。他塑造了一个“实干派”政治家的形象：治理垃圾问题、改善教育、提供医疗服务——而这一切之所以能实现，恰恰是因为他不受制于僵化的政党等级制度。

As mayor, Mr. Shah lent early support to the Gen Z protesters, who had gathered peacefully in Kathmandu in September to condemn corruption and nepotism, as well as a sweeping social media ban. The protests quickly descended into violence when security forces killed unarmed young people. Mr. Shah branded K.P. Sharma Oli, who was prime minister during the fatal crackdown, a “terrorist.” Mr. Oli soon resigned, and the government collapsed.

担任市长期间，沙阿早期曾支持“Z世代”抗议者。去年9月，年轻人们在加德满都和平集会，谴责腐败、裙带关系以及政府对社交媒体的全面封杀。随后，安全部队杀害手无寸铁的青年的行为，令抗议迅速演变为暴力冲突。沙阿公开称时任总理奥利为“恐怖分子”。不久后，奥利辞职，政府垮台。

After the elections were called, Mr. Shah chose to fight for the seat in Parliament that Mr. Oli, four decades his senior, had long held. He won with more than three-and-a-half times the number of votes.

宣布大选后，沙阿选择挑战奥利长期把持的议会席位。尽管奥利比他年长40岁，沙阿最终仍以超过对方3.5倍的票数胜出。

What is Balen’s vibe?

“巴伦”的风格是什么样的？

Punchy and volatile. But also a bit mysterious. He hides his expression behind his signature rectangular sunglasses, which he insists on wearing indoors.

犀利、多变，且带着一丝神秘。他总是躲在标志性的矩形墨镜后面，甚至在室内也坚持佩戴。

Mr. Shah rarely gives news conferences or media interviews. Instead, he communicates through social media, where his reach is unmatched by other Nepali celebrities; he has 3.7 million followers on Facebook, in a nation of 30 million people.

沙阿很少举行新闻发布会或接受媒体采访。相反，他通过社交媒体发声，其影响力令尼泊尔其他名人望尘莫及：在这个拥有3000万人口的国家，他的Facebook粉丝数高达370万。

He has railed against the three big nations — the United States, China and India — and the three big Nepali political parties that for years had a stranglehold on the country’s politics. And, before he joined it in January, he also venomously criticized the R.S.P.

他曾炮轰中美印三大国，也抨击过多年来把持国家政治的三大尼泊尔政党。甚至在今年1月加入国家自由党之前，他对如今所属的政党也进行过尖刻的批评。

“All politicians, new and old, are thieves,” he wrote on social media.

他曾在社交媒体上写道：“所有的政治家，无论新旧，全是小偷。”

国家自由党获得了尼泊尔现代选举史上最广泛的民意授权。

Mr. Shah has expressed admiration for the managerial acumen of dictators like Hitler and ranted on social media about perceived slights — a hair trigger reflex that may not work when he assumes leadership of Nepal.

沙阿曾表达过对希特勒等独裁者管理手腕的钦佩，并常在社交媒体上针对他认为的“冒犯”进行还击。这种“一点就着”的反应，在他接掌国家领导权后可能并不适用。

What is his music like?

他的音乐作品如何？

A poet who learned to style his verse to a beat, Mr. Shah is a troubadour of the streets. Although he grew up comfortably as the son of a traditional medicine doctor, he wrote lyrics that championed the underdog and decried the powerful, in the mold of his inspirations, Tupac Shakur and 50 Cent.

作为一位擅长将诗句融入节奏的诗人，沙阿是街头的吟唱者。尽管出身于传统医生家庭，成长环境优渥，但他创作的歌词多为弱势群体发声，谴责权贵。他的灵感源自2Pac和50 Cent等偶像。

In a country dominated by the Himalayas, Mr. Shah is on track to be the first prime minister of Nepal considered a son of Madhesh, the lowland province bordering India. People from the southern plains, who make up more than half the nation’s population, have long felt like second-class citizens.

在这个以喜马拉雅山区为主的国家，沙阿有望成为首位被视为“马德西之子”的总理。马德西是接壤印度的平原省份，那里的人口占全国一半以上，却长期感觉自己像二等公民。

One of Mr. Shah’s songs, released this year, expresses his sympathies to Nepalis, many of them from the lowlands, who by the millions work overseas because of official corruption that stymies their job opportunities at home.

沙阿今年发布的一首歌表达了对低地同胞的同情。由于官方腐败阻碍了国内就业，数百万尼泊尔人不得不远赴海外务工。

“Money seems to grow on trees for those who sell their integrity, those who step on others, those who are selfish, those who write lies, those who oppress,” the song goes.

歌词写道：“对那些出卖廉耻的人，踩着他人上位的人，自私的人，编造谎言的人，压迫他人的人，钱似乎长在树上。”

What kind of leader will he be?

他会成为什么样的领导人？

As mayor of Kathmandu, Mr. Shah often acted first and figured out the procedural niceties later. He tried to bulldoze a squatter settlement that he found unbecoming. To make a point about slow road construction, he ordered a dump truck to deposit trash in front of the Department of Roads.

在担任加德满都市长期间，沙阿经常“先斩后奏”。他曾试图强拆他认为影响市容的贫民窟；为了抗议道路建设进度缓慢，他曾命令翻斗车直接将垃圾倾倒在道路局门前。

2022年，时任加德满都市长沙阿视察首都的一处下水道施工现场。

Mr. Shah reserved power for a small coterie of aides who dedicated themselves to ripping up red tape while icing out other bureaucrats.

沙阿习惯将权力保留在由一小撮亲信组成的圈子里，他们致力于打破繁琐的行政程序，同时也将其他官僚排挤在外。

As leader of Nepal, Mr. Shah will have to be more flexible. Although his party has a large majority in the lower house, it doesn’t have a single seat in the upper house, making passing major legislation tough.

作为尼泊尔的领导人，沙阿必须变得更加灵活。尽管他的政党在众议院拥有多数席位，但在参议院却未获一席，这将使重大立法的通过变得困难重重。

“We have a lot of problems in Nepal,” said Mr. Humagain, the political scientist. “One man, even Balen, is going to have learn a lot about compromise, communication and teamwork.”

政治学者胡马盖指出：“尼泊尔面临许多问题。即便是一个像巴伦这样的人，也必须在妥协、沟通与团队协作方面多学习。”

Since the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has given conflicting indications on how long it will continue.

自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，特朗普总统对于战事将持续多长时间给出了相互矛盾的说法。

After he said near the outset of the war that it could last “four to five weeks,” the president and members of his administration have issued shifting statements on the timeline and the goals for the war.

他在战争初期曾表示，战事可能持续“四到五周”。但此后，总统及其政府成员不断就战争时间表和目标发表前后不一的说法。

They have at times suggested that the United States was striving to topple Iran’s government and achieve an “unconditional surrender” and will continue an assault as long as it takes. At others, Mr. Trump and his officials have delivered the message that the war had already succeeded in its objective of decimating Iran’s military.

他们时而暗示美国的目标是力求推翻伊朗政府，实现“无条件投降”，并且必要的话会一直打下去；时而特朗普及其官员又表示，战争已达成摧毁伊朗军力的目标。

That has left wide-open the possibilities for how the conflict with Iran could wind down and how long it will take, even as some in his administration try to assure the public that the United States will not be drawn into another long war in the Middle East.

这使得伊朗冲突将如何收场、需要多长时间结束都充满不确定性，即便特朗普政府内部的一些人试图向公众保证，美国不会再次卷入一场中东长期战争。

Here’s a look at officials’ often contradictory statements since the war began.

以下是自战争爆发以来，官员们往往相互矛盾的表态。

March 1

3月1日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘We intended four to five weeks.’

“我们打算持续四到五周。”

In an interview with The New York Times the day after the initial strikes on Iran, Mr. Trump already had contradictory visions of how the war would pan out.

在对伊朗发动初步打击的次日接受本报采访时，特朗普对这场战争将如何发展已经表现出了相互矛盾的看法。

He said that the United States and Israel intended to continue the assault for about a month, and predicted that it “won’t be difficult.” But he did not seem to have decided on what changes among Iran’s government he would consider a victory.

他说，美国和以色列打算将攻击持续大约一个月时间，并预测这“不会很难”。但对于伊朗政府需要发生哪些变化才算胜利，他似乎还没有明确的想法。

March 2

3月2日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯

‘This is not Iraq. This is not endless.’


“这不是伊拉克。这不会没完没了。”

During a news conference at the Pentagon last week with Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mr. Hegseth suggested the campaign was being kept to a smaller scope compared with the “nation-building quagmire” of past American interventions in the Middle East.

上周，在五角大楼与参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军举行的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯表示，这次行动被控制在较小规模，与以往美国在中东干预行动中的那种“国家建设泥潭”不同。

He suggested this campaign could take anywhere from two to eight weeks, not settling on a number.

他暗示，这场军事行动可能持续两到八周，但没有给出一个确定的时间。

March 2

3月2日


Gen. Dan Caine

丹·凯恩将军

‘This is not a single overnight operation.’

“这不是一夜之间就能完成的行动。”

At the same news conference, General Caine dismissed any suggestion that the U.S. campaign in Iran might mirror the one in Venezuela earlier this year and said that the Pentagon’s military objectives would “take some time to achieve.”

在同一场新闻发布会上，凯恩将军驳回了外界关于美国在伊朗的军事行动可能会像今年早些时候在委内瑞拉的行动那样迅速结束的说法，并表示五角大楼的军事目标“需要一些时间才能实现”。

He added, “We expect to take additional losses.”

他还补充说：“我们预计将承受更多损失。”

March 2

3月2日


President Trump

特朗普总统

‘Whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes.’

“不管需要多长时间，不管付出什么代价，都可以。”

As his defense secretary assured the United States would not be dragged into a long conflict, Mr. Trump said the United States was “substantially ahead of our time projections,” which had put the campaign at four to five weeks.

就在他的国防部长向美国保证不会卷入长期冲突的同时，特朗普表示，美国目前“远远领先于原先的时间预期”，而此前的预期是将战事控制在四到五周。

But he added that the United States had the capability “to go far longer than that.”

不过他又补充说，美国也有能力“把行动持续得比这更久”。

March 6

3月6日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’

“与伊朗不会有任何交易，除了无条件投降”

Six days into the bombing campaign, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to demand that Iran capitulate and said that the United States and its allies would “work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

轰炸行动进行到第六天，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖，要求伊朗投降，并称美国及其盟友将“不懈努力，把伊朗从毁灭的边缘救回来，使其经济比以前更大、更好、更强”。

That appeared to shift the timeline further, into both regime change and rebuilding Iran, even as its current leaders have expressed defiance and expanded the battlefield by striking American bases across the Middle East.

这似乎进一步拉长了时间线，将目标扩展至政权更迭和重建伊朗，尽管伊朗现任领导人表现出强硬态度，并通过袭击美国在中东各地的基地来扩大战场。

March 6

3月6日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘The achievable objectives of Operation Epic Fury we expect to last about four to six weeks.’

“我们预计‘史诗愤怒行动’可实现的目标大约需要四到六周。”

Later that day, Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was asked what the president would consider a surrender.

当天晚些时候，白宫新闻秘书莱维特女士被问及在总统看来，怎样才算投降。

She declined to give a timeline beyond the plan she said the president had laid out. But she seemed to soften his demand for a surrender, saying it would “essentially” occur when Mr. Trump concluded his war objectives had been met.

她没有给出比总统此前所提出计划更具体的时间表。但她似乎在一定程度上缓和了总统对投降的要求，表示所谓的投降“基本上”就是当特朗普认定他的战争目标已经实现的时候。

March 7

3月7日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘This is a short excursion.’

“这只是一次短暂的行动。”

After attending the dignified transfer of six American service members who were killed when Iran struck a command center in Kuwait, Mr. Trump suggested to reporters that the United States was achieving its military objectives.

在出席为六名阵亡美军士兵举行的庄严的灵柩回国迎接仪式后——他们是在伊朗袭击科威特一处指挥中心时丧生的——特朗普向记者表示，美国正在达成军事目标。

“We’re winning the war by a lot,” he said. “We decimated their whole evil empire.”

“我们正以巨大优势赢得这场战争，”他说。“我们摧毁了他们整个邪恶帝国。”

Asked if he was worried about high gas prices, which have risen nearly 17 percent since the war began, he said he was not and that the campaign would be “short.”

当被问及是否担心油价上涨时——自战争开始以来油价已上涨近17%——他说并不担心，并表示这场行动将是“短暂的”。

March 9

3月9日


President Trump

特朗普总统


‘The war is very complete, pretty much.’

“这场战争基本上已经结束，差不多了。”

U.S. markets rebounded at the start of this week after Mr. Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule.”

美国市场本周一开始反弹，此前特朗普告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道，战争“基本上已经结束，差不多了”，并且“大大快于计划”。

But after markets closed, in remarks to Republican lawmakers gathered for a retreat in Florida and in a news conference afterward, he left open the possibility of more comprehensive aims, even as he said the war would end “soon, very soon.”

但在股市收盘后，他在佛罗里达州向参加一个闭门会议的共和党议员发表讲话，并在随后举行的新闻发布会上表示，这场战争的目标不排除扩大的可能，尽管他同时称战争将“很快、非常快”结束。

“We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all,” he said.

“我们比以往任何时候都更坚定地向前迈进，争取取得最终胜利，彻底结束这一长期存在的威胁，”他说。

March 10

3月10日


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯


‘It’s not for me to posit whether it’s the beginning, the middle or the end.’

“这是不是开始、中段还是结束，并不是由我来下结论的。”

At a news conference on Tuesday with General Caine, Mr. Hegseth joined others in the administration in asserting that Mr. Trump alone was in charge of the timeline.

在周二与凯恩将军共同举行的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯与政府其他人一样，坚称战争时间表完全由特朗普总统决定。

“He gets to control the throttle,” Mr. Hegseth said, though he added, “I want the American people to understand is this is not endless. It’s not protracted.”

“他掌握着油门，”赫格塞斯说，不过他又补充道，“我希望美国人民明白，这不是一场无休止的战争。这不会是一场持久战。”

March 10

3月10日


Karoline Leavitt

卡罗琳·莱维特


‘President Trump will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender.’

“特朗普总统将决定伊朗何时达到无条件投降的状态。”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, the press secretary again appeared to qualify Mr. Trump’s demand of “unconditional surrender.”

周二对记者发表讲话时，这位白宫新闻秘书似乎再次对特朗普的“无条件投降”要求进行了限定。

“When President Trump says that Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender, he’s not claiming the Iranian regime is going to come out and say that themselves,” Ms. Leavitt said. She added that Mr. Trump would decide when Iran no longer posed “a credible and direct threat.”

“当特朗普总统表示伊朗已达到无条件投降的状态时，他并不是说伊朗政权会自己走出来宣布投降，”莱维特女士说。她还表示，将由特朗普来决定伊朗何时不再构成“可信且直接的威胁”。

In the first two months of the year, before the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East paralyzed energy supply lines, China ramped up its oil purchases as part of a continued strategy to shield the country from rising geopolitical tensions.

今年前两个月，在中东冲突爆发导致能源供应线瘫痪之前，作为应对地缘政治紧张局势的持续战略，中国已加大石油采购力度。

The world’s largest buyer of oil, China imported 15.8 percent more oil in January and February over the same period last year, according to customs data released by China on Tuesday.

中国官方周二公布的海关数据显示，作为全球最大石油买家，中国今年1至2月的石油进口量较去年同期增长15.8%。

Beijing has been building up its strategic stockpile over the past year, even as domestic oil consumption has continued to fall. All that oil is now expected to come in handy.

过去一年，尽管国内石油消费量持续下降，中国仍在不断扩充战略石油储备。如今，这些储备预计将派上用场。

“Oil stockpiling has been taking place for a while now, and Chinese regulators were already preparing for geopolitical tensions to arise from the Trump administration,” said Cosimo Ries, an energy analyst at Trivium China, a consulting firm. “It was a strategic step which, in hindsight, was pretty wise.”

“石油储备工作已经进行了一段时间，中国监管部门此前就在为特朗普政府可能引发的地缘政治紧张做准备，”咨询机构Trivium China的能源分析师科西莫·里斯表示。“事后看来，这是相当明智的战略举措。”

President Trump has launched attacks on two of China’s cheapest sources of oil, Venezuela and Iran. Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, was ousted and brought to the United States, where he is in a federal prison in New York awaiting trial. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on Feb. 28 during U.S. and Israeli military strikes.

特朗普政府已对中国的两大廉价石油来源委内瑞拉和伊朗发起打击。委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被推翻并押往美国，目前关押在纽约联邦监狱等候审判。伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊则在2月28日的美以军事打击中身亡。

The leadership changes in both countries have thrown into question the lucrative deals that China had secured with the two countries to buy oil sanctioned by the United States. Mr. Trump has said that the United States will take over Venezuela’s oil industry. In Iran, the source of 13 percent of China’s oil imports, the Trump administration’s plans are not yet clear.

两国的政权更迭使中国此前与两国达成的购买受美国制裁石油的大笔协议蒙上阴影。特朗普曾表示，美国将接管委内瑞拉石油工业。而伊朗占中国石油进口量的13%，特朗普政府针对伊朗的具体计划尚不明确。

Experts said they expected China to continue building up its energy security now, as the war in Iran disrupts traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. China imports around half of its seaborne crude oil from the Middle East.

专家表示，随着伊朗战争扰乱霍尔木兹海峡航运——这条狭窄水道承载着全球五分之一的石油供应，预计中国将进一步加强能源安全保障。中国约一半的海运原油进口来自中东。

Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday that “China will take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.”

中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周二表示：“中国将采取必要措施，保障自身能源安全。”

Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, a market research firm, said the government’s priority is to ensure stable fuel supplies and it may take steps, such as “instructing refiners to halt fuel exports and potentially lending or releasing crude reserves to refiners.”

市场研究公司Kpler的高级原油分析师徐沐雨（音）称，中国政府当前的优先事项是确保燃油供应稳定，并可能采取相关措施，例如“要求炼油企业暂停燃油出口，或向炼油企业投放、出借原油储备”。

China has been buying more oil over the past year for its strategic stockpile, which stands at roughly 1.2 billion barrels, or about 115 days of its seaborne crude imports, according to Ms. Xu.

徐沐雨表示，过去一年中国持续增加石油进口以充实战略储备，目前规模约为12亿桶，相当于约115天的海运原油进口量。

Much of this has been strategic. China significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil this year as India pulled back its own buying amid negotiations with the United States on a trade deal that stipulated it replace its Russian supply.

此举很大程度上出于战略考量。今年印度在与美国谈判贸易协议期间缩减了俄罗斯石油采购，该协议要求印度替换俄罗斯石油供应，中国则大幅增加了对俄罗斯石油的购买。

The surge in oil imports helped to spur China’s robust trade growth in the first two months of the year. Imports surged nearly 20 percent in January and February, a sharp increase after imports remained mostly flat in 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese exports continued to grow rapidly, rising 22 percent in the two-month period and building on last year’s record outpouring of Chinese-made goods abroad.

石油进口激增推动了中国今年前两个月的贸易强劲增长。1月至2月，中国进口额飙升近20%，较2025年基本持平的进口态势呈现显著增长。与此同时，中国出口延续高速增长，两个月内增长22%，延续了去年创纪录的商品出口势头。

From the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to the war in the Middle East, 2026 has served as a powerful reminder of oil’s enduring influence in geopolitics and the global economy.

从抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗到中东战火爆发，2026年有力地提醒世人：石油在地缘政治与全球经济中拥有持久的影响力。

Oil has been both a prize, as in Venezuela, and a potent tool of political coercion, as seen in the U.S. blockade that is starving Cuba of energy. And now, after oil breached $100 a barrel for the first time in almost four years, the economic risks of going even a short time without full access to energy from the Persian Gulf are becoming clearer by the day.

在委内瑞拉，石油是一种战利品，在美国封锁古巴、使其陷入能源短缺的情况下，石油又是一种强力政治胁迫工具。如今，在油价近四年来首次突破每桶100美元之后，哪怕只是短期内无法全面获得波斯湾能源的经济风险也正日益凸显。

With oil front and center, it feels almost like revisiting an earlier time, before countries began embracing renewable energy and before the United States became the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas.

石油重回舞台中心，这让人仿佛回到过去的年代——那时各国尚未全面接受可再生能源，美国也未成为全球最大石油和天然气生产国。

There is little sign that the war with Iran will cause the kind of economic pain experienced about a half-century ago, when oil met almost half of the world’s energy needs and an embargo by members of an oil cartel caused prices to quadruple in a matter of months. That tipped the U.S. economy into a period of high inflation and stagnant economic growth. But it is clear that going without as much oil and natural gas as the world is used to, even briefly, will strain economies around the world.

目前几乎没有迹象表明，对伊朗的战争会造成大约半个世纪前那样的经济阵痛。当时石油满足全球近半能源需求，石油输出国组织成员实施禁运，油价在数月内涨幅达四倍，将美国经济拖入高通胀与经济增长停滞的困境。但显而易见的是：即便只是短暂失去全球惯常的油气供应，也会给全球经济带来压力。

“The old game is back more than people thought it would ever be,” said Elliott Abrams, who served as a special representative for Iran and Venezuela during the first Trump administration.

“旧的游戏卷土重来，程度远超人们预期，”特朗普第一任期内负责伊朗与委内瑞拉事务的特别代表埃利奥特·艾布拉姆斯表示。

The world remains dependent on reliable oil and gas supplies, even though two-thirds of global spending in the energy sector now go to cleaner alternatives such as solar power that are growing much more quickly.

尽管如今全球能源领域三分之二的支出投向太阳能等增长更快的清洁能源，世界依然依赖可靠的油气供应。

While oil now meets a smaller share of global energy needs than it used to — less than 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency — the world uses almost twice as much of the fuel as it did in the early 1970s. And natural gas, used to heat homes and generate electricity, underpins much more of the economy than it used to.

尽管石油在全球能源需求中的占比已低于往昔——国际能源署数据显示，这一数字已不足30%，但全球石油消耗量几乎是20世纪70年代初的两倍。而用于家庭供暖和发电的天然气对经济的支撑作用也比过去大得多。

“The post-oil world remains far in the future,” said David Sandalow, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who served in the Clinton and Obama administrations. “We’re in the early to middle stages of an energy transition, but energy transitions take time.”

“后石油时代仍遥遥无期，”曾在克林顿和奥巴马政府任职、现哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心研究员戴维·桑德罗表示。“我们正处于能源转型的初期至中期，而能源转型需要时间。”

Of course, disruptions like the war in Iran may accelerate the move to alternative sources of energy, particularly in places that lack easy access to fossil fuels, while pushing countries to use energy more efficiently. U.S. fuel-economy standards are an enduring legacy of the 1973 oil embargo, for example.

当然，伊朗战争这类供应中断可能会加速能源转型，尤其是在化石燃料获取不便的地区，同时推动各国提高能源使用效率。例如，美国的燃油经济性标准就是1973年石油禁运留下的长久遗产。

The widening conflict in the Middle East, which began with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, has all but blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that serves as the gateway to market for one-fifth of the world’s oil and substantial amounts of natural gas. Several refineries in the region have shut down or cut processing, some after sustaining damage, according to Kpler, a research firm. That means they are turning less oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

2月28日美以袭击伊朗引发的中东冲突扩大，几乎封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。这条狭窄水道承载着全球五分之一的石油和大量天然气的外销通道。研究公司克普勒表示，该地区多家炼油厂已停产或减产，部分是因遭受破坏。这意味着原油转化为汽油、柴油和航空燃油等燃料的产能将会减少。

That disruption — and concern that it might last for some time — sent international oil prices up around 37 percent since late February. Fuel prices quickly followed, with especially large gains in the cost of diesel and jet fuel.

这次供应中断，加之市场对其可能持续一段时间的担忧，推动国际油价自2月下旬以来上涨约37%。燃油价格紧随其后，柴油和航空燃油涨幅尤为显著。

上周，加利福尼亚州卡尔斯巴德市的汽油价格已突破每加仑五美元。

Qatar, meantime, stopped cooling natural gas for export last week, citing military attacks. That sent natural gas prices soaring in Europe and in Asia, which depend heavily on imported fuel. The United States, as the world’s top natural gas producer, has been comparatively insulated. (The natural gas market is much more regional than the oil market, largely because the colorless fuel is harder to transport.)

与此同时，卡塔尔上周以遭受军事袭击为由，暂停天然气液化出口，导致高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲和亚洲天然气价格暴涨。作为全球最大天然气生产国，美国相对未受影响。（天然气市场比石油更具区域性，主要因为这种无色燃料更难运输。）

Gasoline and diesel prices have been climbing at a time when many Americans are already worried about the economy and inflation. Many of those economic concerns can be traced to the last major energy disruption, after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

在许多美国人本就担忧经济与通胀之际，汽油和柴油价格持续攀升。这些经济焦虑很大程度上可追溯到2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的上一次重大能源危机。

Gasoline prices, which briefly topped $5 a gallon that year, had fallen considerably, so much so that the relatively low cost of filling up served as a counterweight to rising prices elsewhere in the economy — and a point of pride for President Trump. The war with Iran carries political risk for Mr. Trump, not least because of the toll that higher energy prices will most likely take on the U.S. economy.

当年美国汽油价格曾短暂突破每加仑五美元，此后大幅回落，低廉的加油成本成为对冲其他领域物价上涨的重要因素，也是特朗普总统引以为傲的政绩。与伊朗的战争对特朗普而言存在政治风险，尤其是高能源价格很可能拖累美国经济。

It is no coincidence that oil has re-emerged as both geopolitical tool and economic threat during a period when the United States is unwinding trading relationships and clashing with other great powers, said Meghan O’Sullivan, a deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan under President George W. Bush.

曾在小布什政府负责伊拉克和阿富汗事务的副国家安全顾问梅根·奥沙利文表示，在美国重塑贸易关系并与其他大国发生冲突的时期，石油重新成为地缘政治工具和经济威胁，这并非巧合。

“The energy weapon never went away, but there’s a whole confluence of global conditions — and then individual decisions by the Trump administration and others — that have really brought it back to the fore,” said Dr. O’Sullivan, now a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. “Energy can be a tool of foreign policy, but it can also be an objective.”

“能源武器从未消失，但一系列全球形势叠加特朗普政府等各方的决策，确实让它重新回到前台，”现任哈佛大学肯尼迪学院教授的奥沙利文说，“能源可以是外交政策工具，也可以是政策目标。”

For the latter, look no further than Mr. Trump’s pursuit of oil in Venezuela. And in recent weeks, the United States has blocked Cuba from accessing oil in an attempt to topple the country’s Communist government. Starved of energy, the island nation, which is exceptionally dependent on imported fuel, is facing a humanitarian crisis and widespread power outages.

后者最鲜明的例证莫过于特朗普对委内瑞拉石油的争夺。最近几周，美国切断古巴的石油供应，试图推翻其共产党政府。这个极度依赖进口燃料的岛国因能源匮乏，正面临人道主义危机和大范围停电。

In the Middle East, Iran has leaned on one of its strategic advantages: its ability to disrupt the flow of oil and natural gas through the Persian Gulf and hurt economies around the world.

在中东，伊朗正依靠自身一大战略优势：有能力扰乱波斯湾油气运输，冲击全球经济。

“This is going to underscore yet again how exposed countries are to energy sources that are produced outside their borders,” Dr. O’Sullivan said.

“这将再次凸显各国对境外能源供应的依赖程度，”奥沙利文说。

上周哈瓦那停电期间，人们在面包店外排队。美国的封锁正使古巴陷入能源短缺的困境。

How countries respond to the war in the long run will hinge partly on the severity of the economic fallout from higher energy prices. Reactions are also likely to vary by region, pushing countries in Asia and Europe that do not produce much oil or natural gas to adopt renewable energy faster. The United States, awash in oil and natural gas, may continue to lean into those strengths, at least under Mr. Trump, even though burning the fuels accelerates climate change.

各国对这场战争的长期应对策略部分取决于能源价格上涨带来的经济冲击程度。不同地区反应或将呈现差异：油气匮乏的亚洲和欧洲国家可能加快可再生能源部署；而油气资源丰富的美国，至少在特朗普执政下，可能继续倚重这一优势，尽管燃烧化石燃料会加速气候变化进程。

“For any country that does not have substantial supplies of oil and gas, a no-brainer conclusion is that investment in renewables plus storage is strategic from an energy security point of view,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, a former Obama administration official who is now dean and professor of energy and environmental policy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.

“对任何油气资源匮乏的国家来说，一个显而易见的结论是：从能源安全角度看，投资可再生能源及储能具有战略意义，”曾在奥巴马政府任职、现塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院院长兼能源与环境政策教授凯利·西姆斯·加拉格尔表示。

Clean energy comes with its own geopolitical risks, including greater reliance on China, which dominates the production of everything from solar panels to wind turbines and rechargeable batteries.

清洁能源也伴随地缘政治风险，包括对中国的依赖度上升——中国在太阳能板、风力涡轮机、可充电电池等诸多领域占据主导地位。

But unlike oil and gas, which countries need on an ongoing basis, securing wind and solar equipment is more of a one-time risk. Once a country has the tools to harness the sun and the wind, the energy sources themselves cannot be taken away.

但与各国持续依赖的油气不同，获取风能和太阳能设备更多属于一次性风险。一旦一个国家拥有了利用太阳能和风能的工具，这些能源本身就无法被夺走。

“You can’t weaponize the sun,” said Catherine Wolfram, a deputy assistant secretary for climate and energy economics in the Treasury Department in the Biden administration. “You can’t weaponize the wind.”

“你没法把太阳变成武器，”拜登政府财政部负责气候与能源经济的副助理部长凯瑟琳·沃尔弗拉姆说。“你也没法把风变成武器。”

Within hours of the first Israeli and American airstrikes hitting Iran last weekend, militiamen from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps deployed in neighborhoods across Tehran, the capital, and in most urban centers.

上周末，以色列和美国对伊朗发动首轮空袭后数小时内，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的武装人员便部署到首都德黑兰及大多数城市中心的各个街区。

Eyewitnesses and the occasional furtive video posted online depicted men in plainclothes, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles, manning checkpoints where they searched cars and cellphones, alert for signs of endorsing the war. Black anti-riot vehicles were lined up in places like closed schoolyards that were less likely to be struck by missiles.

目击者和网上零星流出的偷拍视频显示，身穿便衣、手持卡拉什尼科夫突击步枪的人员在检查站值守，盘查车辆与手机，警惕任何支持这场战争的迹象。黑色防暴车辆停在封闭校园等不太可能被导弹击中的地方。

“They tried to create the illusion for outsiders that they are in control, and inside to create fear for people so they do not dare come out to the street,” said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee and the author of “Captive Society: The Basij Militia and Social Control in Post-Revolutionary Iran.”

“他们试图对外界制造掌控一切的假象，对内制造恐惧，让人们不敢走上街头，”美国田纳西大学政治学教授、《被禁锢的社会——巴斯基民兵与革命后伊朗的社会控制》一书作者赛义德·戈尔卡尔表示。

President Trump has suggested that the Guards drop their weapons to buttress popular support for regime change. Analysts consider that scenario highly unlikely. Iran might appear to be a theocracy, and its official ideology is firmly rooted in Shiite Islam, but the Guards constitute the spine of a militarized state. Analysts consider their pervasive military, political and economic clout the main barrier to regime change, or any change, in Iran.

特朗普总统曾暗示革命卫队放下武器，助力民众对政权更迭的支持。分析人士认为这种情况极不可能发生。伊朗表面上是神权国家，官方意识形态牢牢植根于什叶派伊斯兰教，但革命卫队构成了这个军事化国家的支柱。分析人士认为，革命卫队在军事、政治与经济领域的广泛影响力，是阻碍伊朗政权更迭乃至任何变革的主要障碍。

Here is a primer on this powerful group.

以下是关于这个强大组织的基本介绍。

1980年两伊战争期间，伊朗卡斯尔希林附近的一名革命卫队士兵。

What is the I.R.G.C.?

什么是伊斯兰革命卫队？

In the early days of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, did not trust the armed forces, known as Artesh, a Farsi word for army. He was said to have muttered, “Artesh has the Shah in its blood.”

1979年伊斯兰革命初期，革命缔造者阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼不信任正规军伊斯兰共和国军队（波斯语称“阿尔特什”）。据说他曾低声说：“阿尔特什的血液里有沙阿的血统。”

So he organized a parallel armed force, the I.R.G.C., charged specifically with safeguarding the revolution. The core of the group were members of neighborhood committees, often organized around a mosque, that had been established to protect their areas and to liquidate perceived enemies of the revolution.

于是他组建了一支平行武装力量——伊斯兰革命卫队，专门负责捍卫革命成果。该组织的核心来自社区委员会的成员，这些委员会通常以清真寺为中心建立，旨在保护辖区并清除革命的潜在敌人。

The eight-year war that started when Iraq invaded in 1980 molded the Guards into a more cohesive force. The Guards took on tasks like building a missile development program virtually from scratch; Washington, its main arms supplier, had severed ties after the revolution.

1980年伊拉克入侵引发的八年战争将革命卫队塑造成更具凝聚力的力量。卫队承担起几乎从零开始的导弹研发计划等任务；革命后，美国这一主要武器供应国已切断了对伊朗的关系。

After the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, the new supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, turned the Guards into an elite force, marrying his office to its power, while allowing it to expand into politics and the economy.

1989年霍梅尼去世后，新任最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊将革命卫队打造成精锐部队，将其权力与最高领袖办公室绑定，同时允许其涉足政治与经济领域。

The Guards established a separate wing to manage reconstruction after the Iraq war. The group still builds roads, dams and other infrastructure. It also became adept at smuggling goods in and out of Iran, including oil, in response to Western economic sanctions imposed after 2002, when Iran’s then secretive nuclear development program was exposed.

革命卫队在伊拉克战争后成立了专门部门负责重建，至今仍在修建道路、水坝等基础设施。为应对2002年伊朗秘密核计划曝光后西方的经济制裁，卫队也开始精通石油等物资的进出口走私。

Today, the Guards control at least 25 percent of the economy and perhaps twice that amount, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

华盛顿国防民主基金会高级研究员贝赫纳姆·本·塔莱布卢表示，如今革命卫队控制着伊朗至少25%的经济，实际比例还可能翻倍。

By toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, the United States created an opening for the Guards to expand across the Middle East, using its Quds Force to build an axis of mostly Shiite Muslim militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. The Guards then became a major foreign policy player.

2003年美国推翻萨达姆·侯赛因，为革命卫队向中东扩张创造了契机。革命卫队通过圣城旅在黎巴嫩、叙利亚、伊拉克、也门和加沙建立起以什叶派民兵为主的轴心，由此成为重要的外交政策参与者。

2024年德黑兰阅兵式上的革命卫队。

How are the Guards structured?

革命卫队如何建构？

The Guards number between 125,000 and 180,000 men. Analysts peg the country’s overall security forces at up to 1.5 million, including the police. Not all Guards are armed; some work in fields like construction or cultural programs.

革命卫队兵力在12.5万至18万人之间。分析人士估计，包括警察在内，伊朗全国安全部队总人数高达150万。并非所有卫队成员都武装执勤，部分人员从事建筑、文化项目等工作。

There are four main military branches — ground, naval and aerospace forces along with the Quds Force, which is responsible for foreign operations. In addition, the Guards control various allied organizations including their own intelligence agency, as well as the Basij neighborhood militias.

革命卫队下设四大军事分支：地面部队、海军、空天部队以及负责境外行动的圣城旅。此外，卫队还控制着各类附属机构，包括自身的情报部门和巴斯基社区民兵。

The Guards follow a so-called “mosaic” strategy that emerged from both seeing the rapid collapse of central authority in Iraq during the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the domestic effort to squash the Green Movement, the nationwide antigovernment protests in 2009. A decentralized command structure was intended to insure that the Guards could maintain domestic control in case the provinces were ever cut off from Tehran, or could overcome any vacuum in the absence of the supreme leader, the ultimate decision maker.

卫队奉行所谓“马赛克战略”，这一策略源于2003年美国入侵伊拉克时该国中央政权迅速崩溃的教训，以及2009年镇压全国性反政府抗议浪潮“绿色运动”的经验。这种分散式指挥结构旨在确保，即便各省与德黑兰失联，或最高领袖这一最终决策者缺位，卫队仍能填补权力真空。

The strategy was further refined last June to strengthen Iran’s defense against an external enemy, analysts said, after Ayatollah Khamenei was a target of a 12-day war waged by Israel and the United States.

分析人士称，去年6月，在哈梅内伊成为美以发动的12天战争的打击目标后，这一战略经过了进一步完善，以强化伊朗抵御外部敌人的能力。

“They are acting according to the playbook,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. “The system is functioning without Khamenei.”

“他们正按预案行动，”柏林德国国际与安全事务研究所客座研究员哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹表示。“在没有哈梅内伊的情况下，这套体系仍在运转。”

While following a central blueprint, regional commanders have autonomy on decisions like when to launch missiles or drones. There are 31 commands, one for each province, with even smaller branches meant to puncture domestic protests in virtually every neighborhood.

在遵循中央蓝图的同时，地区指挥官在发射导弹或无人机等决策上拥有自主权。全国共设31个指挥部（每个省份各设一个），还有更基层的分支，几乎渗透到每个社区，以镇压抗议活动。

The current war, with the leadership in Tehran degraded, “is exactly the type of moment that the mosaic doctrine was meant to respond to,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”

《野心之战——美国、伊朗与中东争夺战》作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔指出，当前战争中，德黑兰领导层遭遇重创，“这正是马赛克战略旨在应对的时刻”。

阿赫迈德·瓦希迪准将于3月1日被任命为革命卫队新任指挥官。

Who commands the Guards?

革命卫队由谁指挥？

Israeli and American attacks have killed two Guards commanders, one in June and the second on Feb. 28.

美以袭击已造成两名卫队指挥官身亡，一人在6月遇袭，另一人在2月28日遇袭。

A veteran hard-line officer with a reputation for brutality, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, was appointed on March 1 to head the Guards. A former minister of the interior and defense, he was a founding commander of the Quds Force in 1988, leading it for eight years.

以残暴著称的资深强硬派军官艾哈迈德·瓦希迪准将于3月1日被任命为革命卫队总司令。他曾任内政部长与国防部长，1988年参与创建圣城旅并担任指挥官八年。

Mr. Vahidi is suspected of fostering overseas organizations that carried out terrorist attacks at Iran’s behest, including a deadly bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 people. Argentina, accusing Mr. Vahidi of approving the attack carried out by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, unsuccessfully sought his arrest through Interpol. Iran has repeatedly denied any involvement.

瓦希迪被怀疑扶持境外组织执行伊朗指使的恐怖袭击，包括1994年布宜诺斯艾利斯犹太社区中心爆炸案，该事件造成85人死亡。阿根廷指控瓦希迪批准黎巴嫩真主党实施袭击，曾通过国际刑警组织要求逮捕他，但未能成功。伊朗一再否认与此事有关。

Looking ahead

未来走向

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader and his likely heir, enlisted with the Guards during the Iraq war and has maintained particularly strong ties. As his father’s closest aide, he appointed its senior officers for the past two decades, and is now considered their heavy favorite, analysts said.

已故最高领袖之子、大概率接班的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在伊拉克战争期间曾加入革命卫队，与卫队关系尤为紧密。分析人士称，作为父亲最亲近的助手，他在过去20年间负责任命卫队高级军官，如今被视为卫队最属意的人选。

But the Guards are not monolithic. While some members helped to mow down protesters by the thousands in January, it is also a conscript force, so its foot soldiers mirror Iranian society — some disdain the Islamic system. A core group of 2,000 to 3,000 officers, however, are considered hard-liners whose rank and wealth are tied to the organization. They will fight to the bitter end, analysts said.

但革命卫队并非铁板一块。尽管部分成员在今年1月参与镇压、造成数千抗议者死亡，但卫队也实行征兵制，基层士兵反映了伊朗社会的真实面貌——其中一些人蔑视伊斯兰体制。不过，卫队核心的2000至3000名军官属于强硬派，其地位与财富均与革命卫队深度绑定。分析人士称，他们会战斗到底。

The emerging shock of climbing oil prices rumbled through Asia, where countries, rich and poor, tried to contain the economic fallout from the escalating war in the Middle East.

随着油价不断攀升的冲击开始显现，亚洲各国无论富裕还是贫穷，都在努力遏制中东不断升级的战争带来的经济冲击。

South Korea announced on Monday it would cap prices at the pump for the first time in nearly 30 years. In India, the city of Pune has temporarily suspended gas-based cremations, asking customers to use wood or electricity instead. Pakistan said it would increase gasoline prices by about 20 percent to throttle demand from regular drivers and allow diesel costs to remain low for trucks and buses.

韩国周一宣布，将对加油站的油价设定上限，这是近30年来首次。在印度，浦纳市已暂停使用天然气进行火化，要求民众改用木材或电力。巴基斯坦表示，将把汽油价格提高约20%，以抑制普通驾驶者的用油需求，同时让柴油价格保持低位，以减轻卡车和公交车的负担。

As the price of crude oil soared above $100 а barrel, governments are being forced to take increasingly extreme measures to protect consumers from punishing price increases and to constrain energy use to prevent shortages in a conflict with no end in sight. Few parts of the world are as acutely exposed as Asia to the curtailment of oil and gas from the Middle East, which accounts for a majority of the region’s energy imports.

随着原油价格飙升至每桶100美元以上，各国政府被迫采取越来越极端的措施，一方面保护消费者免受油价大幅上涨的冲击，另一方面限制能源使用，以防在这场看不到尽头的冲突中出现能源短缺。世界上很少有地区像亚洲这样对中东石油和天然气供应减少如此敏感，因为中东占该地区能源进口的大部分。

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and Oman that separates the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producers from their customers. Historically, roughly 20 million barrels pass through it each day, most of it bound for Asia. The strait has been effectively closed to seaborne traffic because of the conflict, leaving governments scrambling for solutions to keep fuel flowing and prices from spiraling out of control.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿曼之间的一条狭窄通道，它将世界最大的石油和天然气生产国与它们的客户分隔开来。从以往来看，每天约有2000万桶石油通过这里，其中大部分运往亚洲。由于这场冲突，该海峡实际上已经对海上运输关闭，使得各国政府不得不急忙寻找解决办法，以确保燃料供应并防止价格失控。

“There’s no replacement for that,” said Edward C. Chow, a former executive at Chevron who led international external affairs and managed operations in China. “The market sees a physical supply shortage.”

“这是无可替代的，”曾在雪佛龙负责国际对外事务和中国业务的爱德华·周说。“市场看到的是实打实的供应短缺。”

At gas stations across Hanoi, Vietnam, “sold out” signs have started to appear, with around 15 to 20 stations shutting their pumps in recent days. The authorities tried to reassure people on Monday that the country had enough oil in reserve for at least a month, urging residents not to stockpile gasoline or diesel.

在越南河内的加油站，“售罄”的标志已经开始出现，最近几天约有15到20家加油站停止供油。当地政府周一试图安抚民众，称该国至少还有一个月的石油储备，并呼吁民众不要囤积汽油或柴油。

Hoang Van Thang, 29, a motorbike taxi driver, said he waited 30 minutes to fill up his tank at a gas station in central Hanoi; he usually waited five minutes. He said his daily spending on gasoline had risen about 20 percent over the past week as fuel prices continued to climb.

29岁的摩的司机黄文胜（音）说，他在河内市中心的一家加油站等了30分钟才加满油，而平时只需要等五分钟。他说，随着油价持续上涨，在过去一周里，他每天花在汽油上的开支已经增加了约20%。

“The higher gasoline prices are eating into my daily income,” he said. “The increase in gasoline prices will push up the cost of everything else, from vegetables and meat to a bowl of pho.”

“油价上涨正在瓜分我每天的收入，”他说。“汽油价格上涨会推高所有其他商品的价格，从蔬菜、肉到河粉。”

Even if fighting stops soon, officials and analysts say the disruption to energy supply chains could last weeks.

官员和分析人士表示，即使战斗很快停止，能源供应链的中断也可能会持续数周。

Across Asia, governments have responded in different ways. Some are looking to limit the pain for consumers, while others are trying to ration scarce supplies.

在整个亚洲，各国政府采取了不同的应对方式。有些国家试图减轻消费者的痛苦，而另一些则试图定量配给稀缺的供应。

Tapping reserves.

动用储备。

Japan, South Korea and China are not ruling out the possibility of drawing down their vast reserves of oil set aside for times of crisis.

日本、韩国和中国都不排除动用为危机时期准备的大量石油储备的可能性。

When asked by a reporter whether China has decided to tap its reserves, Guo Jiakun, spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said in the briefing on Monday that the country “will do what is necessary to protect its energy security.”

当记者询问中国是否已经决定动用石油储备时，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆在周一的例行记者会上表示，中国“将采取必要措施保障自身能源安全”。

In Japan, government officials have instructed domestic oil-storage bases to prepare for a potential release of strategic reserves, local media reported on Monday. In a news conference, the country’s chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, said that no formal decision had been made to tap the reserves.

据日本媒体周一报道，日本政府官员已指示国内的石油储备基地为可能释放战略储备做好准备。在新闻发布会上，日本内阁官房长官木原稔表示，尚未就动用储备做出正式决定。

But accessing petroleum reserves is easier said than done, according to June Goh, a Singapore-based oil market analyst at Sparta, a commodities data firm. Reserves may not be easily retrieved, and it is challenging to get fuel to refiners before existing inventory runs out, she said.

但大宗商品数据公司Sparta驻新加坡的石油市场分析师吴朱妮（音）表示，动用石油储备说起来容易做起来难。她说，储备可能不易取用，而且在现有库存耗尽之前将燃料送到炼油厂手中也具有挑战性。

On Friday, Mitsubishi Chemical Group began scaling back production at a plant north of Tokyo that produces ethylene, a gas that is used to make plastics. Production at the plant was reduced after a disruption to the procurement of naphtha, a crude-derived feedstock used in ethylene production, according to a spokeswoman.

周五，三菱化学集团开始缩减其位于东京以北的一家工厂的产量。乙烯是一种用于制造塑料的气体。公司发言人称，该工厂减产的原因是用于乙烯生产的石脑油采购受阻。石脑油是一种由原油提炼而来的原料。

韩国总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令相关部门严厉打击囤积行为。

Capping prices.

设定价格上限。

In South Korea, officials on Monday moved to directly intervene in fuel markets. President Lee Jae Myung called for a price cap on gasoline and diesel and ordered the authorities to crack down on hoarding, collusion and price manipulation by refiners and gas stations.

在韩国，官员们周一采取行动直接干预燃料市场。总统李在明呼吁对汽油和柴油设定价格上限，并命令有关部门严厉打击炼油厂和加油站的囤积、串通以及价格操纵行为。

Price caps generally apply at the pump, limiting how much gas stations can charge motorists even as global crude prices surge. But such measures can shift the financial pressure elsewhere.

价格上限通常适用于零售环节，即在全球原油价格飙升的情况下，限制加油站向车主收取的费用。但此类措施可能会将财务压力转嫁到其他环节。

“If the government caps the retail price but doesn’t subsidize it, the cost falls on refiners,” Ms. Goh said. With crude prices climbing rapidly, forcing refiners to absorb the difference is not economical and “not a feasible solution in the short or medium term,” she said.

“如果政府设定零售价格上限但不提供补贴，那么成本就会落在炼油厂身上，”吴朱妮说。她表示，随着原油价格快速攀升，强迫炼油企业承担这部分差价并不经济，而且“在中短期内都不是可行的解决方案”。

The South Korean government has not yet announced how it will compensate suppliers for losses incurred from the price cap, the first of its kind in South Korea since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, said Kim Yong-beom, the chief policy coordinator at Mr. Lee’s office.

韩国总统室政策室长金容范表示，韩国政府尚未宣布将如何补偿因设定价格上限而遭受损失的供应商。这是自1997年亚洲金融危机以来韩国首次采取类似措施。

Taiwan, which imports more than 96 percent of its energy and gets about 60 percent of its oil through the strait, is racing to lock in supplies before they run out. About a quarter of its natural gas comes from Qatar, which halted production last week after Iranian strikes on two of its gas facilities.

台湾约96%以上的能源依赖进口，其中约60%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。如今，在供应耗尽之前，台湾正加紧锁定新的能源来源。台湾约四分之一的天然气来自卡塔尔，而卡塔尔在伊朗对其两处天然气设施发动袭击后，于上周暂停了生产。

To cover the shortfall through April, Taiwan needed to secure 22 vessels’ worth of natural gas shipments and had already contracted for 20 of them, the minister of economic affairs, Kung Ming-hsin, said Monday. “There will absolutely not be any gas shortages or power shortages,” he said. Taiwan also raised gasoline and diesel prices on Monday, but it said it was lowering commodity taxes at the same time to ease the impact on consumers and industry.

经济部长龚明鑫周一表示，为了弥补截至4月的供应缺口，台湾需要确保22艘液化天然气运输船的运量，目前已为其中20艘签订了合同。“绝对不会出现天然气短缺或电力短缺。”他说。台湾周一还上调了汽油和柴油价格，但同时表示将下调商品税，以减轻对消费者和产业的影响。

菲律宾的一家印刷厂。为节约能源，该国多个地方政府自周一起改为四天工作制。

Reducing demand.

减少需求。

Other governments are instead focusing on reducing energy usage.

其他国家政府则将重点放在减少能源消耗上。

Several local governments in the Philippines shifted to four-day work weeks on Monday. The governments of Manila, the capital; Cebu; and Negros Occidental said they were following President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s order for the executive branch to slash the number of working days.

菲律宾的多个地方政府周一开始实行每周四天工作制。首都马尼拉以及宿务和西内格罗斯省政府表示，他们正在执行总统费迪南德·马科斯二世关于行政部门减少工作天数的命令。

“We are victims of a war that is not of our choosing,” Mr. Marcos said in a statement on Friday, adding that the government was uncertain when the war would end.

马科斯周五在声明中表示：“我们是一场并非我们选择的战争的受害者。”他还说，政府并不确定战争何时会结束。

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in Asia to an oil price shock, with nearly 90 percent of its oil imports sourced from the Middle East. Unlike its neighbors, such as Indonesia and Thailand, which are partially shielded by fuel subsidies, prices at the pump in the Philippines are more market-driven.

菲律宾是亚洲受油价冲击影响最大的国家之一，其近90%的石油进口来自中东。与印尼和泰国等邻国（这些国家通过燃料补贴在一定程度上缓冲油价上涨）不同，菲律宾的燃油价格更多由市场决定。

Bangladesh is also in a dire situation. On Friday, the country’s new government said it had ordered fuel rationing and closed universities to conserve electricity and reduce transportation needs.

孟加拉国也处境艰难。上周五，该国新政府表示已下令实行燃料配给，并关闭大学以节约电力、减少交通需求。

In recent years, Bangladesh has been straining its national budget to buy gas for power generation. With most of its electricity now generated by gas-burning plants, it has become dependent on imports from the Gulf. The country’s new leaders, elected last month after protests toppled the previous authoritarian government, are desperate to avoid the kind of economic challenges that pressured the previous leaders.

近年来，孟加拉国为购买发电所需的天然气而承受沉重的财政压力。由于如今大部分电力来自燃气电厂，该国已经变得依赖从海湾地区进口天然气。在抗议活动推翻了之前的威权政府后，上月当选的国家新领导人迫切希望避免那种曾给前领导人带来压力的经济挑战。

In Vietnam, after two hikes in the price that the government sets for gas, diesel and household cooking gas — and the expectation of further increases — many people around Vietnam have lined up to fill up before prices go up again, while others are pausing travel plans.

在越南，在政府两次上调汽油、柴油和居民用燃气价格，并且市场预计还将继续上涨之后，许多越南民众纷纷排队，赶在下一轮涨价之前加满油，而另一些人则暂停了出行计划。

Fishermen along the coast are already delaying their trips, at the start of peak season for fishing in the South China Sea. Truck drivers are also struggling to maintain their usual schedules for bringing supplies to factories, and food and finished goods to ports.

沿海渔民已经开始推迟出海时间，而此时正是南海渔业旺季的开始。卡车司机也难以维持平时的运输节奏，无法及时将物资运往工厂，将食品和成品运往港口。

Fuel prices could soar, and stay elevated for months. That could make groceries and other shipped goods more expensive. And consumers and businesses, stung by the rising costs, could choose to spend less, constraining economic growth.

燃料价格可能会飙升，并持续数月保持高位。这可能导致食品和其他运输货物的价格上涨。而受到生活成本上涨打击的消费者和企业可能会选择减少开支，从而限制经济增长。

In the eyes of economists, that is the increasingly real and dire picture from the U.S.-led war with Iran, now in its second week. It may be a conflict of President Trump’s making, but it is becoming the world’s latest economic headache, one that has sent foreign leaders scrambling for ways to contain the possible fallout.

在美国领导的对伊战争进入第二周之际，这是经济学家眼中日益真实且严峻的图景。尽管冲突可能是特朗普总统亲手制造的，但它正成为全球最新的经济难题，迫使各国领导人匆忙寻找遏制潜在连锁反应的方法。

At the heart of the panic was a surge in the price of oil, which at one point on Monday shot above $100 a barrel. Because energy is central to the functioning of the global economy, the turbulence prompted heightened fears about a prolonged conflict that could exact a deep financial toll around the world, including on Americans.

恐慌的核心是油价激增，周一油价一度冲破每桶100美元。由于能源是全球经济运作的核心，这种动荡引发了人们对长期冲突的深度担忧，认为这可能给全世界（包括美国人）造成沉重的财务代价。

In response, world leaders convened an emergency meeting on Monday of the Group of 7 countries, where finance ministers considered, yet decided against, tapping their national stores of oil to increase available supply. It was only after Mr. Trump asserted later in the day that the war was nearing its conclusion that oil prices began to calm down again, falling to around $85 a barrel.

作为回应，世界领导人于周一召开了七国集团紧急会议。会上，各国财长考虑了动用国家石油储备以增加供应的方案，但最终决定放弃。直到当天晚些时候，特朗普声称战争已接近尾声，油价才开始回落，跌至每桶85美元左右。

“I knew oil prices would go up if I did this,” Mr. Trump told a news conference in Florida. “They’ve gone up probably less than I thought they’d go up.”

特朗普在佛罗里达州的一次新闻发布会上表示：“我知道这样做会导致油价上涨。但涨幅可能比我想象的要小。”

That fit a pattern for Mr. Trump, who has frequently brushed aside any economic blowback posed by his policy choices, including his military strikes on Iran. Previously, Mr. Trump has even described the sharp turn in gasoline prices as a “very small price to pay” for national security. The comments have offered a stark contrast with the president’s boasts about falling gas prices earlier in his second term, a development that he frequently portrayed as a strong gauge of the nation’s trajectory.

这符合特朗普的一贯风格：他经常对自己的政策选择（包括对伊朗的军事打击）所带来的经济反作用嗤之以鼻。此前，特朗普甚至将汽油价格的急升描述为国家安全的“极小代价”。这些言论与他在第二任期初期吹嘘油价下跌形成鲜明对比，当时他经常将这种下跌描绘成国家走向强盛的重要指标。

But the impact seemed anything but small for Americans. The average price of a gallon of gasoline reached nearly $3.48 nationally on Monday, according to AAA, a 16 percent increase from a week earlier. The surge in energy costs initially spooked financial markets, leading to sharp declines in the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes, which rebounded as the White House looked to tamp down concerns about the oil market.

但对美国人来说，影响绝非微不足道。根据美国汽车协会的数据，周一全美平均汽油价格达到每加仑近3.48美元，较一周前上涨了16%。能源成本的飙升最初惊吓了金融市场，导致标普500和其他主要股指大幅下跌。随后随着白宫试图平息对石油市场的担忧，股市有所回升。

“The White House is in constant coordination with the relevant agencies on this important issue, as it is a top priority to the president,” Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement.

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示：“白宫正就这一重要问题与相关机构保持密切配合，因为这是总统的首要任务。”

She described the surge in oil prices as a “short-term change,” adding that it would again “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”

她将油价飙升描述为“短期波动”，并称一旦“史诗愤怒行动”的目标达成，油价将再次“大幅下降”。

In many ways, the fallout around Iran has been similar to the global panic that greeted the start of Mr. Trump’s trade war nearly a year ago. Then, too, economists warned about looming upheaval, while world leaders panicked over the consequences for their economies. Some of the dire predictions came to pass, jolting consumers and businesses in ways still being felt today.

在许多方面，围绕伊朗局势产生的连锁反应与近一年前特朗普贸易战爆发时的全球恐慌十分相似。当时，经济学家同样警告称动荡即将来临，各国领导人也为其经济后果感到恐慌。而那些严峻的预测中，有些确实成为了现实，给消费者和企业带来了至今仍能感受到的冲击。

Yet Mr. Trump remained undeterred in both cases, forging ahead despite warnings that his strategy could inflict lasting economic damage, perhaps even touching off a global recession.

然而，在这两种情况下，特朗普都毫不动摇。尽管有人警告他的策略可能造成持久的经济损害，甚至引发全球衰退，他依然一意孤行。

“This is a very concerning shock to consumers, which have been a driving force in the economy,” said Tim Mahedy, chief economist at Access/Macro, a research firm, who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

研究机构Access/Macro的首席经济学家、曾任职于旧金山联邦储备银行的蒂姆·马赫迪表示：“对于一直以来作为经济驱动力的消费者来说，这是一个非常令人担忧的冲击。”

He noted that consumer spending, which drives roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic growth, was the only sector that expanded throughout most of last year. Now, with Americans having run through their savings, Mr. Mahedy said, the energy shock is “really hitting at a bad time.”

他指出，占美国经济增长约70%的消费支出是去年大部分时间里唯一增长的领域。马赫迪表示，现在美国人的储蓄已经耗尽，能源冲击“确实在一个糟糕的时机袭来”。

“I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists,” he said.

他说：“我非常担心，如果这种情况持续下去，可能会将我们推入经济衰退。”

Exactly how the war will ripple across the global economy may mostly depend on one factor — its duration. That’s because the conflict has obstructed shipping in the Persian Gulf, which has snarled much of the world’s oil and gas. The longer the slowdown, the worse the toll will be, though the administration has signaled it believes shipments could restart soon.

战争将如何波及全球经济，很大程度上取决于一个因素——持续时间。这是因为冲突阻碍了波斯湾的航运，而那里扼守着世界相当一部分石油和天然气的命脉。航运放缓的时间越长，代价就越惨重，尽管政府已发出信号，认为运输可能很快恢复。

If U.S. strikes on Iran conclude in a few weeks, most economists believe that the rise in gas prices and other disruptions may prove short-lived. But that doesn’t mean that the war will be painless, especially for Americans who are already suffering a real pinch at the pump.

如果美国对伊朗的打击在几周内结束，大多数经济学家认为，汽油价格上涨和其他干扰可能是短暂的。但这并不意味着战争是无痛的，尤其是对于那些已经感受到油价压力的美国人来说。

“If $100-per-barrel oil is sustained, you’re going to see the impact most directly in less consumer spending,” said Bernard Yaros, the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He added that low-income consumers would shoulder the heaviest burden because energy accounts for so much of their monthly spending.

“如果油价维持在每桶100美元，最直接的影响将是消费支出的减少，”牛津经济研究院美国首席经济学家伯纳德·雅罗斯表示。他还说，低收入消费者将面临最重的负担，因为能源支出占其月度开支的比重极大。

If hostilities continue for many months, however, the damage to the global economy could be more pronounced. Oil could stay above $100 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, carrying severe repercussions that would make goods more expensive and slow global growth, said Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

然而，如果敌对行动持续数月，对全球经济的损害可能会更加显著。EY-Parthenon首席经济学家格雷格·达科表示，在最坏的情况下，油价可能保持在每桶100美元以上，这将产生严重的后果，导致商品涨价并减缓全球增长。

A protracted conflict could cause inflation globally to rise about two percentage points faster than it would have otherwise, he estimated. In the United States, that means inflation could top 4 percent this year. The surge in prices would coincide with a slowdown that could tip off a recession and depress total U.S. output. The nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of that output, would grow only 1.6 percent in 2026, compared with the 2.4 percent originally projected, Mr. Daco found.

据他估算，持久的冲突可能会导致全球通胀率比正常水平高出约两个百分点。在美国，这意味着今年的通胀率可能突破4%。物价飙升将与经济放缓同时发生，这可能引发衰退并压低美国总产出。达科发现，2026年美国国内生产总值将仅增长1.6%，而最初的预测为2.4%。

These new risks have surfaced at a vexing moment for the U.S. economy, which is still growing when prices are high and the labor market is showing new signs of weakness. The competing forces are the result of factors including the meteoric rise of artificial intelligence and Mr. Trump’s policies, including his steep tariffs and mass deportations.

这些新风险出现在美国经济的一个棘手时刻：尽管物价高企，经济仍在增长，但劳动力市场已表现出疲软的新迹象。这些相互冲突的力量是由多种因素造成的，包括人工智能的飞速崛起，以及特朗普的政策，包括高额关税和大规模驱逐出境。

“This administration is a sequence of supply shocks,” Mr. Mahedy said. “This is coming on top of two other very significant supply shocks, tariffs and immigration policy.”

“本届政府就像是一连串的供应冲击，”马赫迪说。“眼前的冲击是叠加在关税和移民政策这两个非常剧烈的供应冲击之上的。”

Despite those warnings, the Trump administration has remained bullish about the pace of the war with Iran. Asked this weekend if he was concerned about the rise in gas prices, Mr. Trump told reporters: “No. This is a short excursion into something that should’ve been done for 47 years. No president had the guts to do it.”

尽管有这些警告，特朗普政府对战争的进程仍保持乐观。本周末，当被问及是否担心汽油价格上涨时，特朗普告诉记者：“不。这只是一次简短的出征，为的是一件本该在47年前就完成的事。以前没有哪位总统有这个胆量去做。”

But Mr. Trump has also not ruled out sending troops into the country, which would mark a dramatic escalation in the fighting. With an ever-shifting definition for what might render the operation a success, the president has taken some steps to insulate Americans from economic fallout.

但特朗普也没有排除向该国派遣地面部队的可能性，这将标志着战斗的剧烈升级。随着对行动“成功”定义的不断变动，总统已采取一些措施来保护美国人免受经济连锁反应的影响。

Last week, the U.S. government said it would offer limited protection and insurance for tankers crossing the Persian Gulf. The Treasury Department began taking steps that could allow for sanctioned Russian oil to be sold to other countries, including India.

上周，美国政府表示将为穿越波斯湾的油轮提供有限的保护和保险。财政部开始采取措施，可能允许被制裁的俄罗斯石油出售给包括印度在内的其他国家。

Lifting those sanctions, which were strengthened recently in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marked a dramatic turnabout for Mr. Trump, who had previously threatened withering tariffs against countries that purchased Russian energy. It was also an effort to bolster the oil supply, even as the president’s top aides insisted that they would not tap U.S. reserves to ease strains on the market.

取消这些制裁（由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，这些制裁近期刚刚得到加强）标志着特朗普态度的戏剧性转变，他此前曾威胁要对购买俄罗斯能源的国家征收惩罚性关税。此举也是为了增加石油供应，尽管总统的高级助手们坚称他们不会动用美国储备来缓解市场压力。

On its face, Iran’s choice of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message of continuity to a country battered by war. It was also a show of open defiance to Iran’s attackers.

表面上看，伊朗选择穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊出任新的最高领袖，是在向饱受战争蹂躏的国家传递延续性的信号。这同时也是对伊朗的攻击者公开展现强硬态度。

The United States and Israel killed the new leader’s father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the opening salvos of their attack on Iran. They had openly warned Iran against replacing him with his 56-year-old son — a hard-line cleric seen as close to Iran’s top military force.

美国和以色列在对伊朗发动攻击的初期就炸死了这位新领袖的父亲、前任最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。两国曾公开警告伊朗，不要让阿里·哈梅内伊56岁的儿子接班——穆杰塔巴是一名强硬派教士，被视为与伊朗最高军事力量关系密切。

The group of 88 clerics known as the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei despite those threats. That choice risks prolonging the war and creating more uncertainty for the country, should he meet the same fate as his father.

由88名教士组成的“专家会议”不顾这些威胁，依然推选了穆杰塔巴。这一选择可能会延长战争，一旦他遭遇与父亲同样的命运，也会给国家带来更大不确定性。

Iran was already deeply divided between those who support the clerical ruling system and those who oppose it. Choosing another hard-line leader may only deepen that divide.

伊朗国内支持神职统治体系与反对该体系的阵营本已严重分裂，再次选择一名强硬派领导人只会进一步加深这种分裂。

The decision is “laden with peril,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

国际危机组织资深伊朗分析师阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这一决定“充满危险”。

Iran’s new supreme leader lost not only his father to U.S.-Israeli strikes, but also his mother, wife, and daughter, Mr. Vaez said. That means Iran is now “concentrating power in the hands of a man loathed by much of his own people and consumed by fury toward Israel and the United States.”

瓦埃兹说，新的伊朗最高领袖不仅在美以打击中失去了父亲，还失去了母亲、妻子和女儿。这意味着伊朗如今“将权力集中到了一个被本国大部分民众厌恶、且对以色列和美国充满愤怒的人手中”。

President Trump called the younger Khamenei an “unacceptable” choice, and the Israeli military warned it would “continue to pursue every successor.”

特朗普总统称，小哈梅内伊是“不可接受”的选择，以色列军方则警告称，将“继续追剿任何继任者”。

As a political figure, the younger Khamenei is a relative unknown, both to Iranians and the world.

作为政治人物，无论对伊朗民众还是国际社会，小哈梅内伊都相对鲜为人知。

The older Khamenei was a known entity, unflinching in his resolve to crack down on internal dissent, as authorities killed thousands in protests in January, and insistent on the right to uranium enrichment as part of Iran’s nuclear program. Publicly, he ruled out actually building a nuclear bomb.

老哈梅内伊是外界熟知的人物，他在镇压国内异见时毫不手软——今年1月，当局在抗议活动中杀害了数千人；他坚持伊朗核计划中包含铀浓缩权利，但在公开场合排除实际制造核弹的可能。

阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊，摄于2024年。

Nevertheless, the concern that under his leadership, Iran could seek a nuclear weapon was held up as a reason for the United States and Israel to go to war.

尽管如此，外界担心在他领导下，伊朗可能谋求核武器，这也被美以当作发动战争的理由。

What is known about the new supreme leader is that he was influential behind the scenes while working in his father’s office, and is closely tied to Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

关于这位新任最高领袖，已知的是，他在父亲的办公室任职期间便在幕后颇具影响力，并与伊朗强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系紧密。

Founded to defend the Islamic Republic that was established after Iran’s 1979 revolution, the Revolutionary Guards have not only become Iran’s most powerful military force, they wield considerable political and economic influence. Their leaders have directed the waves of retaliatory ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region.

革命卫队成立的初衷是保卫1979年伊朗革命后建立的伊斯兰共和国，如今它不仅成为伊朗最强大的军事力量，还掌握着巨大的政治与经济影响力。其领导人指挥了多轮报复性弹道导弹与无人机袭击，目标包括以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和使馆。

The younger Khamenei was considered the preferred choice of the Revolutionary Guards for the supreme leader post.

小哈梅内伊被视为革命卫队属意的最高领袖人选。

“It is definitely a consolidation and empowerment of the deep state in Iran,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan.

米兰天主教大学伊朗问题专家阿卜杜勒拉苏尔·迪夫萨拉尔表示：“这无疑是伊朗深层国家势力的巩固与权力强化。”

Some experts worry the younger Khamenei could take the step that experts say his father never did, and race to build a nuclear bomb.

部分专家担心，小哈梅内伊可能迈出其父从未迈出的一步——加速研发核武器。

“A war that was meant to prevent Iran from having a bomb could be the war that actually pushed Iran beyond the Rubicon to reach a bomb,” said Danny Citronowicz, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, a think tank, and former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence.

智库大西洋理事会分析师、前以色列军事情报局伊朗部门主管丹尼·希特罗诺维奇说：“一场旨在阻止伊朗拥有核弹的战争反而可能真正推动伊朗破釜沉舟，最终造出核弹。”

Iranian officials appear to be signaling that they are digging in for a longer fight. On Monday, the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned against more attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.

伊朗官员似乎在释放信号，表明他们准备打一场更持久的战争。周一，外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇警告，不要进一步袭击伊朗能源设施与核场所。

“We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites,” he wrote on social media. “And we, too, have many surprises in store.”

“我们知道美国正在图谋针对我们的石油和核设施，”他在社交媒体上写道，“而我们也准备了许多惊喜。”

Internally, some political analysts argue that Mr. Khamenei could be more pragmatic than expected.

在伊朗国内，一些政治分析人士认为，哈梅内伊可能比外界预期的更务实。

Hassan Ahmadian, a political analyst at the University of Tehran, said that Mr. Khamenei’s position of strength among hard-liners opens the possibility for him to seek consensus in a way that weaker candidates could not.

德黑兰大学政治分析师哈桑·艾哈迈迪安表示，哈梅内伊在强硬派中拥有强势地位，这使他有可能以弱势候选人做不到的方式寻求共识。

“He could work with anyone and everyone within Iranian politics, based on the priorities he feels for Iran and for the country at this point,” he said.

“他可以根据他在现阶段为伊朗和国家设定的优先事项，与伊朗政界各方合作。”他说。

周一，在德黑兰，民众聚集起来，表达对穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的支持。

Some Iranians were hopeful that Mr. Khamenei would choose to play a role similar to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia — an authoritarian ruler who expanded social freedoms and rehabilitated the economy.

一些伊朗人希望，哈梅内伊能扮演类似沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的角色——一位扩大社会自由、振兴经济的威权统治者。

Farhad, a logistics manager in Tehran, said many Iranians might welcome a heavy security state coupled with improved foreign relations, and a slow, gradual easing of social restrictions. Like many Iranians inside the country, he asked to be identified by his first name only for fear of retaliation.

德黑兰物流经理法尔哈德说，许多伊朗人可能会接受一个实施严密安全管控的国家，同时期待改善对外关系，并逐步缓慢放宽社会限制。和许多伊朗国内民众一样，因担心遭到报复，他只愿透露名字。

Across the country, government supporters have taken to the airwaves and rallied in the streets to pledge their allegiance to the new leader.

在伊朗全国，政府支持者通过广播发声，并走上街头集会，宣誓效忠新领袖。

Mr. Khamenei’s rise may soon be seen as a predictable outcome the United States and Israel could have avoided, said Mr. Citronowicz, the analyst.

分析师希特罗诺维奇表示，穆杰塔巴上台或许很快会被视为一种美国和以色列本可避免的可预见结果。

“Mojtaba is one example of really not thinking in depth how this war could develop,” he said. “Now, he will try to do his utmost to strengthen Iran’s position, and in that sense, maybe we were better off with the father.”

“穆杰塔巴是一个典型例子，说明这场战争的走向没有经过深思熟虑，”他说。“现在，他会尽全力巩固伊朗的地位。从这个角度看，或许还是他父亲在位对我们更有利。”

With oil prices surging and the conflict in the Middle East intensifying, the economic stakes for China are rising.

随着油价飙升、中东冲突不断升级，中国面临的经济风险也越来越大。

The cost of oil on Monday hit levels not seen in four years, one week after the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, an ally and financial partner to China. Fighting has halted virtually all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for China’s energy and goods.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击一周后，本周一，油价攀升至四年来的最高水平。伊朗是中国的盟友和金融合作伙伴。战事几乎完全阻断了霍尔木兹海峡的航道交通，而这条海峡是中国能源和货物运输的重要通道。

China has a lot to lose in a widening conflict. In Iran, China found a cheap source of oil in recent years. Across the region, it found governments keen for its know-how in renewable energy and technology. China grew reliant, like much of the rest of the world, on the Middle East’s supply of both oil and gas.

若冲突持续扩大，中国可能会承受惨重损失。近年来，中国在伊朗找到了廉价的石油来源。在整个中东地区，中国也发现许多政府渴望获得其在可再生能源和技术方面的经验。与世界上大多数国家一样，中国也越来越依赖中东的石油和天然气供应。

The region’s importance to China became even more pronounced this past year, as the country’s trade rivalry with the United States escalated and it was unable to sell many goods to the U.S. market, once China’s biggest market. The United Arab Emirates became the fastest-growing market for Chinese cars. Demand from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors for Chinese steel doubled. China’s exports to the Middle East grew nearly twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world in 2025.

过去一年里，随着中美贸易竞争加剧，中国难以向其曾经最大的市场——美国市场出售大量商品，中东地区对中国的重要性变得更加突出。阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。沙特及其邻国对中国钢铁的需求增加了一倍。2025年，中国对中东的出口增长速度几乎是对世界其他地区出口增速的两倍。

Chinese investment, too, is growing faster there than anywhere else in the world.

中国在该地区的投资增长速度也超过世界其他任何地方。

“The region is basically considered the biggest growth potential for China,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. From 2019 to 2024, China invested $89 billion directly into the Middle East, Ms. Wang said.

“该地区基本上被视为中国增长潜力最大的地区，”欧亚集团中国区总监王丹表示。从2019年到2024年，中国在中东的直接投资达到890亿美元，王丹说。

阿联酋成为中国汽车增长最快的市场。

These trade ties are now in the line of fire as the American and Israeli militaries attack Iran, and Iran strikes back at ports, ships, pipelines, desalination plants, data centers and other critical infrastructure across the region. The seaborne transit of not only energy but goods carried on giant container ships through the Strait of Hormuz are imperiled.

如今，随着美国和以色列军队攻击伊朗，伊朗又对整个地区的港口、船只、输油管道、海水淡化厂、数据中心以及其他关键基础设施进行反击，这些贸易联系如今正处在风口浪尖。不仅能源运输，就连通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型集装箱船所运载的各项物资也面临危险。

China also has credit at risk, having extended loans for contracts and projects throughout the region.

由于中国为该地区的合同和项目提供了贷款，它还面临信贷风险。

The portion of China’s global portfolio of loans and grants to the region doubled to 10 percent in 2023, according to AidData, a research institute at William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. State-owned financial institutions extended loans to oil refineries and seaports that finance the production and transport of commodities.

根据弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡的威廉与玛丽学院研究机构AidData的数据，到2023年，中国向该地区提供的贷款和赠款在其全球投资中的占比已翻倍至10%。国有金融机构向炼油厂和海港提供贷款，为大宗商品的生产和运输提供资金。

In Qatar, Chinese banks are helping to fund and build a major expansion of a liquefied natural gas production facility. China’s state-owned oil giant Sinopec holds a stake in the facility’s North Field East expansion project. The facilities were attacked last week.

在卡塔尔，中国的银行正在为一项大型液化天然气生产设施扩建项目帮助提供资金并参与建设。中国国有石油巨头中国石化持有该设施北方气田东扩项目的股份。该设施上周遭到袭击。

Chinese investors have funded the expansion of Israel’s Haifa Port and the Emirates’ Khalifa Port, and the resulting terminals are owned and operated by Chinese companies.

中国投资者还为以色列海法港和阿联酋哈利法港的扩建提供了资金，扩建后的码头由中国公司拥有并运营。

In Iran, dozens of Chinese companies have financed, built and run infrastructure, electric grids and petrochemical plants.

在伊朗，数十家中国公司投资、建设和运营着基础设施、电网和石化工厂。

China is also the largest investor in desalination in the Middle East, where potable water is scarce. Nearly all of the projects have been built by Power Construction Corporation of China, with projects in Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Oman and Iraq.

中国也是中东地区海水淡化领域最大的投资者，该地区饮用水资源匮乏。几乎所有项目都由中国电力建设集团建设，项目遍布沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、阿曼和伊拉克。

霍尔木兹海峡的一个港口，霍尔木兹海峡是运输中国货物的重要水道。

“There are so many countries and so many assets spread across the region,” said Brad Parks, the executive director of AidData. “We could see in the deal flow there was just a lot of enthusiasm about doing more and more work in the Middle East.”

“该地区国家众多，资源也十分丰富，”AidData执行董事布拉德·帕克斯说。“从交易情况来看，人们对在中东开展越来越多项目充满热情。”

Major Chinese technology companies like Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent have set up offices in Dubai, where employees work in a complex that includes Microsoft, Meta and Google. Three Chinese smartphone brands — Transsion, Xiaomi and Honor — are gaining market share in the region, after the South Korean giant Samsung, according to Omdia, a tech research firm.

华为、阿里巴巴和腾讯等中国大型科技公司已在迪拜设立办公室，员工与微软、Meta和谷歌等公司在同一园区办公。根据科技研究公司Omdia的数据，三家中国智能手机品牌——传音、小米和荣耀——在该地区迅速扩大市场份额，仅次于韩国巨头三星。

It’s not only large companies seeking fortunes in the Middle East.

前往中东寻求机会的不只是大型企业。

In 2018, Haiyang Zhang, a Chinese entrepreneur, moved to Dubai, the Emirates’ largest city and a hub for international finance and visitors. She left a job at a Chinese-company this year to start her own business helping Chinese investors expand in Dubai. Some of her partners are in the new energy sector. Ms. Zhang believes Dubai remains a secure place for certain Chinese investors to put their money, she said, but is concerned about the impact of a sustained conflict.

2018年，中国企业家张海洋移居阿联酋最大城市、国际金融和旅游枢纽迪拜。今年，她辞去了在中国公司的工作，创办了自己的公司，帮助中国投资者在迪拜拓展业务。她的一些合作伙伴来自新能源行业。张女士表示，她仍然认为迪拜对部分中国投资者来说是一个安全的投资地点，但她也担心持续冲突带来的影响。

Over the past week, several Chinese companies with growing presences in the Middle East instructed their employees in the region to work remotely. On March 1, the tech giant Baidu said it would pause its robotaxi services in the Emirates. The Chinese food delivery platform Keeta has indicated that its services in the region may be suspended or temporarily limited.

过去一周，一些在中东业务不断扩张的中国公司已指示当地员工远程办公。3月1日，科技巨头百度表示将暂停其在阿联酋的自动驾驶出租车服务。中国外卖平台Keeta也表示，在该地区的服务可能会暂停或暂时受限。

China’s foreign ministry said last week that one Chinese citizen had died and more than 3,000 nationals had been evacuated from Iran. It has not said how many Chinese nationals are in the region.

中国外交部上周表示，一名中国公民在伊朗死亡，超过3000名中国公民已从伊朗撤离。但外交部并未透露目前有多少中国公民在该地区。

Oil from the Middle East is critical to China’s energy security. It imports a little over half of its seaborne crude from the Middle East, and about a quarter of that comes from Iran. Like countries all over the world, China faces higher energy costs as global prices rise.

来自中东的石油对中国的能源安全至关重要。中国进口的海运原油中，超过一半来自中东，其中约四分之一来自伊朗。随着全球油价上涨，中国与世界各国一样面临更高的能源成本。

China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, which is under U.S. sanction, although the imports made up a little over 13 percent of the seaborne crude it took in during 2025, according to Kpler, an industry data firm. China also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan. Still, a loss of Iranian supply would force China to find other sources, which would be much more expensive than the discounted oil it bought from Tehran.

伊朗石油正受到美国制裁，而中国是伊朗石油的主要买家。尽管根据行业数据公司Kpler的数据，2025年中国进口的伊朗石油仅占其海运原油总量的13%多一点。中国还运营三条主要原油管道，其中两条从俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦输送石油。即便如此，一旦失去来自伊朗的供应，中国将不得不寻找其他来源，而这些来源的价格将远高于从德黑兰购买的折扣石油。

随着与伊朗的冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与中东多国外长通话。

Despite China’s deep financial ties in the Middle East, it is facing the same risks as other countries, including the United States, that are heavily invested in and dependent on the region.

尽管中国在中东拥有深厚的金融联系，但它与其他在该地区投入巨大并高度依赖该地区的国家（包括美国）面临着相同的风险。

China has condemned the strikes by Israel and the United States and called for a cessation of the fighting. As the conflict has escalated, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has held calls with counterparts in Iran, Oman, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

中国谴责了以色列和美国的袭击，并呼吁停止战斗。随着冲突升级，中国最高外交官王毅已与伊朗、阿曼、以色列、沙特阿拉伯以及阿联酋的外长级人物通了电话。

But Iran’s threats have caused traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to plunge. And it’s not just energy that’s getting blocked. The Chinese shipping giant Cosco stopped bookings through the strait, and Maersk, the Danish company, suspended certain critical routes in the Middle East.

但伊朗的威胁已导致霍尔木兹海峡的航运量大幅下降。受到阻碍的不仅是能源运输。中国航运巨头中远海运已经停止通过该海峡的船期预订，丹麦航运公司马士基也暂停了中东地区部分关键航线。

Ms. Zhang, the Chinese entrepreneur in Dubai, said she observed American businesses and executives evacuating from the region, and to her that spells opportunity.

在迪拜的中国企业家张女士表示，她注意到美国企业和高管正在从该地区撤离，在她看来，这意味着机会。

“Their motivation to evacuate,” she said, “is far greater than that of the Chinese.”

“他们撤离的动机远远强于中国人，”她说。

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the recently killed supreme leader, as his father’s successor, according to a statement from top clerics published on state media early Monday local time, signaling the continuity of hard-line theocratic rule as Israeli and U.S. airstrikes pound the country.

当地时间周一凌晨，伊朗通过官方媒体发布高级教士声明，宣布任命前不久被杀的最高领袖之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊为其父继任者。美以空袭持续轰炸伊朗之际，此举标志着强硬派神权统治的延续。

Mr. Khamenei himself, though, is something of a mystery even within Iran.

但穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊本人即使在伊朗国内也颇具神秘色彩。

He is a son of the recently killed supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and has been an influential figure in the shadows of power, coordinating military and intelligence operations at his father’s office. He is known to have very close ties to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and was considered their favored candidate.

他是不久前遇袭身亡的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊之子，长期作为权力幕后的重要人物，在父亲办公室协调军事与情报行动。他与权势强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系极为密切，被视为卫队属意的候选人。

Unlike his father, Mr. Khamenei, 56, carries the full religious credentials as an ayatollah at the moment of his ascension. He was known for teaching popular Shiite seminary classes.

与父亲不同，现年56岁的哈梅内伊在接任时已拥有完整的阿亚图拉宗教资质，曾以在什叶派神学院开设广受欢迎的课程而闻名。

But his personality or politics outside of his father’s tight inner circle are not known. He seldom speaks or appears in public. And now he will take the helm not just as Iran’s new religious and political authority, but also as the commander in chief of its armed forces.

但在父亲严密的核心小圈子之外，他的个人性格与政治立场鲜为人知。他极少公开发言或露面。如今，他不仅即将掌管伊朗新的宗教与政治最高权力，还将担任武装部队总司令。

Vali R. Nasr, an expert on Iran and Shiite Islam at Johns Hopkins University, said that Mr. Khamenei would be a surprising choice, but a telling one.

约翰斯·霍普金斯大学伊朗与什叶派问题专家瓦利·纳赛尔表示，穆杰塔巴的继任出人意料，却很能说明问题。

“The choice of Mojtaba is choice of continuity with his father, and also he is more ready than other candidates to quickly consolidate power and assert control over the system,” said Mr. Nasr. He added that Mr. Khamenei had been considered a successor for a long time; but for the past two years, he had seemed to have dropped off the radar.

“选择穆杰塔巴是选择延续他父亲的路线，而且相比其他候选人，他更有能力迅速巩固权力、掌控整个体系，”纳赛尔说。他还说，穆杰塔巴很早便被视为接班人，但过去两年似乎淡出了公众视野。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had indicated to close advisers that he did not want his son to succeed him because he did not want the role to become hereditary, according to three senior Iranian officials familiar with Mr. Khamenei and the selection process. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal issues.

据三位熟悉穆杰塔巴及继任流程的伊朗高级官员透露，已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊曾向亲信顾问表示，不希望儿子接班，以免最高领袖一职变成世袭。这些官员因讨论敏感内部事务要求匿名。

After all, the Islamic revolution in 1979 had toppled a monarchy with the promise to end the hereditary transfer of power and return it to the people.

毕竟，1979年伊斯兰革命正是推翻了君主制，承诺终结权力世袭、将权力归还人民。

But Mr. Khamenei’s ascension suggests that those in Iran’s circles of power — the senior clerics, the Guards and influential politicians, such as the head of the National Security Council, Ali Larijani — had closed ranks at a time of acute crisis and war.

但穆杰塔巴的接任表明，在这场严重危机与战争时刻，伊朗权力核心圈——包括高级教士、革命卫队，以及包括国家安全委员会主席阿里·拉里贾尼在内的实权政治人物——已经团结一致。

Mr. Larijani, a pragmatic veteran politician who has taken center stage in running the country, and Mr. Khamenei are old allies and friends. Both men are also influential within Iran’s armed forces.

在国家运转中站到前台的务实派资深政治人物拉里贾尼与穆杰塔巴是多年盟友与好友，两人在伊朗武装部队内部均拥有深厚影响力。

The Revolutionary Guards were founded as an ideological force charged with defending the Islamic republic and its borders, and to provide a buffer layer of security in case of defections and coups in the army. The Guards have since turned into a political, military and economic powerhouse. They are directing the waves of ballistic missiles and drones against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region, as massive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue.

伊斯兰革命卫队最初作为意识形态武装力量成立，职责是捍卫伊斯兰共和国及其边境，并在军队出现叛逃或政变时提供安全缓冲。如今，卫队已成为集政治、军事、经济于一体的庞大势力。美以持续大规模空袭之际，他们正指挥一波波弹道导弹与无人机攻击以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和美国使馆。

Mr. Khamenei was selected by a group known as the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior Shiite clerics. Even as the assembly was debating its choice on Tuesday, Israel struck a building in Qum, one of Shiite Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly would traditionally meet to vote on a new leader. But the building was empty, according to the Fars News agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, and the clerics were meeting virtually for security.

穆杰塔巴由名为“专家会议”的机构选出，该机构由88名什叶派高级教士组成。就在该机构周二商议人选时，以色列空袭了库姆一座建筑，这里是什叶派主要权力中心之一，也是专家会议传统上投票选举新领袖的场所。但据隶属革命卫队的法尔斯通讯社称，当时建筑内无人，教士们出于安全考虑转为线上开会。

During the deliberations, the majority of the senior clerics in the assembly pushed for Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, arguing that he had the qualifications needed to steer Iran in this moment, according to the three Iranian officials. Some clerics said that after the Ayatollah had been killed by America and Israel, choosing his son would honor his legacy.

三位伊朗官员表示，商议期间，专家会议中多数高级教士支持任命穆杰塔巴，认为他具备在当前时刻领导伊朗所需的资质。部分教士称，在阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遭美以刺杀后，选择他的儿子是对其遗志的致敬。

“Mojtaba is the wisest pick right now because he is intimately familiar with running and coordinating security and military apparatuses,” Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Tehran, said in an interview. “He was in charge of this already.”

“穆杰塔巴是目前最明智的人选，因为他对安全与军事机构的运作和协调极为熟悉，”现居德黑兰的分析人士迈赫迪·拉赫马蒂在采访中表示。“这些工作他本来就在负责。”

周日，伊朗民众在德黑兰哀悼最高领袖逝世。

But Mr. Rahmati acknowledged that the appointment carries the risk of further polarizing a population that is deeply divided, with many Iranians deeply opposed to the Islamic republic’s rule.

但拉赫马蒂也承认，这一任命可能让本就严重分裂的伊朗社会进一步两极分化，许多伊朗民众强烈反对伊斯兰共和国统治。

“A portion of the public will react negatively and forcefully to this decision, and it will have a backlash,” he said.

“部分民众会对这一决定做出强烈负面反应，会引发反弹，”他说。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had the final say on all main state matters. He showed little flexibility on domestic reforms, and offered few concessions in nuclear negotiations with the United States. He ordered the lethal crackdown on nationwide protests in January that were calling for the end to his rule. Security forces killed at least 7,000 people during that crackdown, according to rights groups that say the numbers could rise significantly when verification is completed.

已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊对国家所有重大事务拥有最终决定权。他在国内改革上态度强硬，在与美国的核谈判中极少让步。他曾下令镇压今年1月呼吁终结其统治的全国性抗议活动。人权组织称，安全部队在镇压中杀害了至少7000人，核实工作完成后这一数字还可能大幅上升。

Since the war began, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have killed not just Mr. Khamenei’s father, but also his wife, Zahra Adel; his mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh; and a son; the Iranian government said.

伊朗政府表示，战争爆发以来，美以空袭不仅导致穆杰塔巴的父亲身亡，他的妻子扎赫拉·阿德尔、母亲曼苏雷·霍贾斯泰·巴格赫扎德以及他的一个儿子也被杀害。

Other candidates who were considered to be finalists for the supreme leader role were Alireza Arafi, a cleric and jurist who was part of the three-person transition council of leadership named after Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic revolution’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

此前进入最高领袖最终候选名单的还有阿里礼萨·阿拉菲与赛义德·哈桑·霍梅尼。阿拉菲是教士兼法学家，也是阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遇袭后成立的三人权力过渡委员会成员；霍梅尼则是伊斯兰革命奠基人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼的孙子。

Both Mr. Arafi and Mr. Khomeini are viewed as moderates, with the latter being close to the sidelined reformist political faction in Iran.

阿拉菲与霍梅尼均被视为温和派，后者与伊朗遭边缘化的改革派政治派系关系密切。

Some analysts hold that Mr. Khamenei might yet lean toward reform, despite his father’s style. They argue that he is of a younger, more pragmatic generation of clerics and because of his lineage would face less resistance from the hard-line and conservative factions.

部分分析人士认为，尽管其父风格强硬，穆杰塔巴仍有可能倾向改革。他们认为，他属于更年轻、更务实的一代教士，且凭借家族背景，他面临的强硬派与保守派系阻力更小。

Abdolreza Davari, a politician close to Mr. Khamenei, said in a phone interview from Tehran that if Mr. Khamenei did succeed his father, he might emerge as a figure in the style of the Saudi Arabian leader Mohammed bin Salman, who has brought some liberalization to his society.

与穆杰塔巴关系密切的政界人士阿卜杜勒雷扎·达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示，如果穆杰塔巴继任，其执政风格或将类似沙特阿拉伯领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼——后者已为本国社会带来一定程度的自由化改革。

“If there is anyone who could move toward some sort of de-escalation with the United States, it is him — any other person would face backlash from the ruling class and conservatives,” said Mr. Davari. “He intends to bring structural change.”

“如果说有谁能推动与美国的某种缓和，那就是他——换作其他人，都会遭到统治阶层与保守派的强烈反弹，”达瓦里说。“他有意推动结构性变革。”

How Washington would view him is uncertain. On Tuesday, at a news conference in Washington, President Trump said that many of the people his government had viewed as potential leaders of Iran had been killed since the fighting began. “Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody,” he said.

华盛顿方面将如何看待他仍不明确。周二，特朗普总统在华盛顿新闻发布会上表示，自冲突开始以来，他的政府认为可能成为伊朗领导人的不少人物已被击毙。“很快我们就谁都不认识了，”他说。

Asked about a worst-case scenario in Iran, he said: “I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person. Right, that could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”

当被问及伊朗可能发生的最坏局面时，他表示：“我想最糟糕的情况就是，我们采取这个行动，结果上台的人和前任一样坏。没错，这有可能发生。我们不希望出现这种情况。”

At first glance, the Chinese director Lou Ye’s newest film looks like a departure from form.

乍一看，中国导演娄烨的新作似乎偏离了他一贯的风格。

It does not touch on the taboo subjects, like China’s coronavirus lockdowns or the Tiananmen Square massacre, that earned him the moniker “the king of banned films.” It does not examine how ordinary Chinese respond to a changing society, the animating question of Mr. Lou’s oeuvre. There isn’t even dialogue, only music.

这部电影没有触及那些为他赢得“禁片之王”绰号的禁忌题材——比如中国的新冠封控或六四事件。它也没有探讨普通中国人如何应对不断变化的社会，而这本是娄烨作品中最核心的命题。影片甚至没有对白，只有音乐。

It is a concert film about a Chinese rock band, ReTROS — Mr. Lou’s first foray into nonfiction after decades of feature films.

这是一部关于中国摇滚乐队“重塑雕像的权利”的演唱会电影——也是娄烨数十年来剧情片创作后首次涉足非虚构领域。

For Mr. Lou, these differences are mostly semantic. “The distinction we draw between feature films and documentaries is a mistake,” Mr. Lou, 60, said in an interview at his studio in Beijing, not long after the film, “Re-TROS ‘After the Applause,’” made its premiere in the city last fall.

对娄烨而言，这些差异在很大程度上只是形式上的区别。“我们把剧情片和纪录片截然分开，这本身就是一个错误，”去年秋天在他的电影《重塑雕像的权利“喝彩之后”南京演唱会》在北京首映后不久，现年60岁的娄烨在位于北京的工作室接受采访时说。

“As long as there’s a camera pointed at you, reality has already subtly changed,” he said.

“只要有摄像机对着你，现实就已经发生了微妙的改变，”他说。

A resistance to clear lines or categories runs through Mr. Lou’s work — and his life.

对明晰界限和分类的抗拒一直贯穿着娄烨的作品，也贯穿着他的人生。

His shaky, hand-held camerawork evokes realism, but the stories are often dreamlike or fantastical. The films start with real moments in Chinese history but feature mysterious look-alikes and stories within stories.

他手持摄像机摇晃的镜头营造出一种现实主义感，但故事往往如梦境般，甚至带有奇幻色彩。影片常常以中国历史的真实时刻出发，却充斥着长相相似的神秘人物，以及层层嵌套的故事。

He is best known for his clashes with Chinese censors, who have barred about half of his films from screening in the country. (He is sometimes compared to Jafar Panahi, the Iranian director who has been jailed for his films.) But Mr. Lou has also made movies released widely in Chinese theaters, featuring big budgets and even bigger stars, sometimes while battling censors on another film at the same time.

他最广为人知的是与中国审查机构的冲突，他约有半数的电影被禁止在国内公映。（因此，他有时被比作因电影入狱的伊朗导演贾法尔·帕纳西。）但娄烨也执导过在中国院线广泛上映的电影，这些作品预算庞大，明星云集，有时他甚至是在与审查机构就另一部影片周旋的同时，完成这些商业片的制作。

Some Chinese filmmakers defy censorship early in their careers, then shift solidly into the mainstream; others remain on the fringes. Few have moved so continuously between the two.

有些中国导演在职业生涯早期挑战审查制度，随后完全进入主流；还有一些则始终停留在边缘地带。但很少有人像他这样，持续在两者之间来回穿梭。

“Is that a good thing or a bad thing?” Mr. Lou said, when asked about that feat.

当被问到这一点时，娄烨说：“你说这是好事还是坏事？”

娄烨工作室里的《颐和园》和《风中有朵雨做的云》电影海报。

While his films have been honored at Cannes and Venice, he said he wanted most to reach a Chinese audience, who would be most likely to understand them. He has accepted significant cuts to some films to see them released domestically. (The concert film is awaiting approval for wider release.)

尽管他的电影已在戛纳和威尼斯电影节上获奖，但他表示自己最渴望的仍是触达中国观众，因为他们最有可能理解他的作品。为了能让一些电影在国内上映，他接受了大幅删减。（这部演唱会电影目前仍在等待更广泛上映的许可。）

Mr. Lou’s wife and frequent screenwriter, Ma Yingli, said in an interview that they tried not to think about censorship until submitting a movie for review. “If you do that, you’ll never be able to make a film,” she said. “If problems arise later, you can try to find solutions,” she added, such as cuts or edits.

娄烨的妻子、也是他经常合作的编剧马英力在采访中说，他们在把电影送审之前，尽量不去考虑审查问题。“如果那样做，你就永远拍不出电影，”她说。“如果之后真的出现问题，再想办法解决。”她补充道，比如删减或修改。

But some topics felt so urgent, Mr. Lou said, that he would not have been able to continue making films if he had not addressed them. That was true of “Summer Palace,” his 2006 film about disillusioned lovers after the Tiananmen massacre, because of his experience as a student during the demonstrations. It was also true of “An Unfinished Film,” a metafictional look at filmmaking under lockdown, because he felt the pandemic had redefined the relationship between people, screens and reality.

但娄烨表示，有些题材让他感觉如此紧迫，以至于如果不将其呈现出来，他就无法继续拍电影。2006年的《颐和园》便是如此，这部影片讲述了关于天安门事件后梦想幻灭的恋人们的故事，因为他本人在学生时代亲身经历过那些示威抗议活动。他的新片《一部未完成的电影》亦是如此，这部以元虚构（metafictional，也被称为后设，译注）手法展现疫情封锁期间电影拍摄的影片，源于他深切感受到疫情重新定义了人与人、人与屏幕以及人与现实之间的关系。

“Generally speaking, if you don’t violate an artist’s basic expression, I think restrictions and obstacles are quite normal,” he said. “But if you push past that point, the artist may push back.”

他说：“一般来说，只要不侵犯艺术家最基本的表达，我认为限制和障碍都是很正常的。但如果越过了那条线，艺术家可能就会反抗。”

He described this reaction as reflexive, out of his control. “That’s not about cinema anymore,” he said.

他把这种反应形容为一种本能的反射，不受自己控制。“那已经不是电影本身的问题了，”他说。

Mr. Lou was born in Shanghai, to an actor and an acting teacher. At age 20, in 1985, he enrolled at the Beijing Film Academy to study directing.

娄烨出生于上海，父母分别是演员和表演教师。1985年，20岁的他考入北京电影学院学习导演。

It was a time of heady experimentation, as China’s leaders loosened their grip on the economy and, cautiously, culture. The graduates from the academy in those years later became known as the pioneers of Chinese underground cinema. They made low-budget films documenting the unglamorous side of China’s boom and did not submit them to the state film administration, meaning they could not enter theaters.

那是一个大胆实验的时代，中国领导层开始放松对经济的控制，同时也谨慎地放宽了对文化的管制。那些年从电影学院毕业的学生后来成为中国地下电影的先锋人物。他们拍摄低成本电影，记录中国经济繁荣背后不那么光鲜的一面，并且不向国家电影局送审，这意味着他们的电影无法进入影院。

Mr. Lou’s breakout film was “Suzhou River” in 2000, a noirish tale of a man searching for his lost lover in a seedy, industrial Shanghai. It was Mr. Lou’s first encounter with international acclaim, winning a prize at the Rotterdam film festival, but also his first major run-in with the authorities. Because he had not obtained officials’ permission to submit the film to the festival, they banned him from making movies for two years.

娄烨的成名作是2000年的《苏州河》，这是一部带有黑色电影风格的作品，讲述一个男人在破败的、工业化的上海寻找失踪恋人的故事。这部影片为他赢得了国际声誉，在鹿特丹电影节获奖，但也让他第一次与当局发生重大冲突。由于他未经官方同意就把影片送去参加电影节，结果被禁止拍片两年。

“Summer Palace,” the 2006 Tiananmen movie, earned him another five-year ban on filmmaking. He shot his next film, “Spring Fever,” in secret. A gay romance, it was released in 2009.

2006年以天安门事件为题材的影片《颐和园》让他再次被禁拍片五年。他的下一部作品《春风沉醉的夜晚》是在秘密状态下拍摄完成的。这部讲述同性恋情的影片于2009年上映。

In recent years, Mr. Lou has also made films marketed more at mass audiences, such as “Saturday Fiction,” a World War II spy story starring the Chinese superstar Gong Li. But even those films deploy techniques that may put off casual moviegoers, like jump cuts and subtle social commentary, said Sheldon Lu, a scholar of Chinese cinema at the University of California, Davis.

近年来，娄烨也拍摄了一些面向更大众市场的影片，例如由中国影星巩俐主演的二战间谍故事《兰心大剧院》。但加州大学戴维斯分校研究中国电影的学者鲁晓鹏表示，即便是在这些影片中，他也运用了可能让普通观众不太适应的手法，比如跳切剪辑和含蓄的社会评论。

娄烨执导的电影《苏州河》和《春风沉醉的夜晚》的海报。

Many of Mr. Lou’s classmates at the Beijing Film Academy are now among China’s most successful directors, in part because they have embraced mainstream or even nationalistic filmmaking, such as odes to the Chinese military, Professor Lu said. But Mr. Lou “holds onto his principles, his aesthetics.”

鲁晓鹏教授说，娄烨在北京电影学院的许多同学如今已成为中国最成功的导演，部分原因是他们拥抱了主流甚至民族主义的电影创作，例如歌颂中国军队。但娄烨“坚持自己的原则和美学”。

Indeed, after “Saturday Fiction” was widely promoted in Chinese state media, Mr. Lou again broached a Chinese government taboo: pandemic lockdowns, in “An Unfinished Film.” Released abroad in 2024, it is unavailable in China.

事实上，在《兰心大剧院》获得中国官方媒体广泛宣传之后，娄烨再次触碰了中国政府的禁忌：在《一部未完成的电影》中讨论疫情封控。该片于2024年在国外发行，目前在中国无法看到。

Despite his maverick image, Mr. Lou is a restrained presence. A self-proclaimed introvert, he has worked with the same actors for many of his films, in part, he joked, because he is uncomfortable meeting new people.

尽管有着特立独行的形象，娄烨本人却相当内敛。他自称是个内向的人，在许多电影中反复与同一批演员合作，他开玩笑说，部分原因是他不习惯结交新朋友。

But he sometimes shows flashes of childlike delight — or defiance. While Mr. Lou was making “The Shadow Play,” a film about corruption during China’s economic opening, Ms. Ma shot a behind-the-scenes documentary. In one scene, Mr. Lou grins widely after capturing a shot he likes and mimics the sound of an explosion.

但他偶尔也会流露出孩子气的喜悦——或者说叛逆。在娄烨拍摄讲述中国经济开放时期腐败问题的《风中有朵雨做的云》时，马英力拍摄了一部幕后纪录片。其中有一个镜头，娄烨在拍到一个满意的镜头后咧嘴大笑，还模仿爆炸的声音。

But later in the documentary, when censors demand extensive cuts to “The Shadow Play,” Mr. Lou declares that he would rather it never be released.

但在纪录片后面的一段里，当审查机构要求对《风中有朵雨做的云》进行大幅删减时，娄烨表示自己宁愿这部电影永远不要上映。

A member of his team fires back, “Do the rest of us eat?”

他团队的一名成员反驳道：“那我们其他人还吃不吃饭了？”

After two years of negotiations with officials, the movie was released in China in 2019. At the premiere, Mr. Lou tersely told the audience that he had left in signs of deletions and changes, as proof of the censors’ interference: “These are all things I want the audience to be aware of.”

经过与官员长达两年的协商，这部电影最终于2019年在中国的院线上映。在首映式上，娄烨简短地对观众说，他刻意保留了影片中的删减和修改痕迹，以此作为审查干预的证据：“这些都是我希望观众注意到的。”

Mr. Lou said “The Shadow Play” was probably the film on which he had made the most compromises. Still, he said it was worthwhile to give Chinese moviegoers a record of their collective experience, even if it could be only a “second-rate” version, as Mr. Lou once described it, because of censorship.

娄烨说，《风中有朵雨做的云》大概是他做出妥协最多的一部电影。但他仍然认为，让中国观众看到一份关于他们共同经历的记录是值得的，即使因为审查，这只能是一部——正如他曾经描述的那样——“二流版本”的作品。

His willingness to negotiate may also speak to his desire for audiences, both at home and overseas, to talk about something other than censorship.

他愿意与审查机构周旋，或许也说明了他希望国内外观众能关注审查之外的话题。

娄烨是少数几位似乎持续在边缘与主流之间游走的中国电影人之一。

“Everything gets simplified into political or nonpolitical,” he said. “It completely destroys the dialogue between the film and the public,” the right of audiences to interpret a film as they like.

“一切都被简化为政治或非政治，”他说。“这完全破坏了电影与公众之间的对话”，也剥夺了观众按照自己的喜好解读电影的权利。

“It strips away the film’s value as entertainment,” he said, “or as a cinematic language.”

“它剥离了电影作为娱乐的价值，”他说，“或者作为一种电影语言的价值。”

Mr. Lou’s new concert documentary is, essentially, all cinematic language. He said he had sought to let the band’s music, of which he is a longtime fan, speak for itself.

娄烨的新演唱会纪录片本质上几乎完全是电影语言的呈现。他说，自己希望让这支乐队的音乐——他多年来一直很喜欢——自己说话。

After the premiere in Beijing, Mr. Lou briefly took the stage. He urged the audience to be open to the diversity of movies that a director could make.

在北京首映式结束后，娄烨短暂登台发言。他呼吁观众对导演可以创作的多样化电影类型保持开放态度。

“There are many different types of movies,” he said. “So I hope people will pay attention.”

“电影有很多不同类型，”他说。“所以我希望大家能关注它们。”

The gigantic factory stretches for more than a mile along the river bank, belching steam laced with the aroma of China’s “national drink” — a gullet-searing grain spirit that, according to local lore, helped propel Mao Zedong to power, smoothed Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to Beijing and turned a remote mountain valley into “the liquor capital of China.”

这座巨型酒厂沿河岸绵延超过1.6公里，蒸汽升腾间弥漫着中国“国酒”的浓烈香气——据当地传说，这种灼烧喉咙的粮食烈酒曾助力毛泽东夺取政权，为1972年尼克松访华铺平道路，也让偏远山谷蜕变为“中国酒都”。

But, drenched for decades in the fumes and profits of its booze business, the town of Maotai in China’s southern Guizhou province is now nursing a bad hangover.

然而，在酒香与暴利中浸淫数十年后，中国南部贵州省的茅台镇正遭受严重的宿醉。

A nationwide ban on drinking alcohol at official banquets, an economic slowdown that has cut expense account boozing and the more health-conscious habits of a young generation with little appetite for 100-plus-proof alcohol have dented the fortunes of the state-controlled Kweichow Moutai, the town’s biggest employer with more than 30,000 workers, and hundreds of smaller, private distilleries scattered throughout the mountains.

全国范围内的公务宴请禁酒令、经济放缓削减了公款饮酒开支，以及年轻一代更注重健康、对超过100度的烈酒兴趣寥寥，都重创了国有企业贵州茅台的业绩，这家拥有3万余名员工的企业是当地最大的雇主，而散布在群山间的数百家小型民营酒厂同样受到波及。

All produce much the same product: a highly potent colorless drink made from sorghum and known as “baijiu.” The most famous brand is Moutai, a name derived from an archaic English transcription of Maotai, the Chinese name for the riverside town where it is made.

所有酒厂生产的几乎是同一种产品：以高粱酿造的烈性无色酒，俗称“白酒”。其中最知名的品牌就是茅台，其英文名“Moutai”源自对其产地、河畔小镇茅台镇的老式英文音译。

Once a sleepy, one-factory backwater, Maotai has had an expensive makeover aimed at attracting Chinese tourists and buyers for local booze. Its central district is filled with ersatz traditional wooden buildings stuffed with baijiu stores and baijiu-themed restaurants.

茅台镇曾是一座寂寂无闻、仅有一家工厂的偏远小镇，后来斥巨资改造，试图吸引中国游客与本地酒品买家。中心区遍布仿传统木质建筑，内里挤满白酒专卖店与白酒主题餐厅。

2月，茅台当地一家酒厂举办的宴会上，宾客们举着白酒敬酒。茅台镇与贵州茅台酒厂，摄于2月。

Behind the state-controlled distillery, however, most of the hundreds of shops selling different brands of baijiu along a long shopping street are empty. Anxious sales staff, desperate for business, shout at passers-by, offering free tastings and discounts on purchases of baijiu ladled from large earthenware vats.

但在国营的酒厂背后，一条长长的商业街上，数百家售卖各类白酒的店铺大多空置。焦虑的销售人员为招揽生意，对着路人高声吆喝，提供免费品鉴和折扣优惠，白酒从大型陶缸中舀出售卖。

Yuan Yuan, who sells baijiu for the Qianzui Winery, a small producer, said sales picked up slightly before Chinese New Year on Feb. 17 but were down by at least a third compared with last year. A long funk by Chinese consumers worried by the falling value of their homes has curbed their spending on nonessential items, including alcohol.

在小型酒厂黔醉酒庄（音）从事白酒销售的袁媛（音）说，2月17日春节前销量略有回升，但较去年至少下滑三分之一。中国消费者因房价下跌忧心忡忡，抑制了包括酒类在内的非必需品消费。

Ms. Yuan used to handle sales from an office at her distillery, where she received a reliably steady flow of orders. Today, she drums up business from a street stall next to a hill decorated with a giant bottle of Moutai. Her distillery’s baijiu bottles — white ceramic with a red label — look almost identical to those of Kweichow Moutai but sell for just a few dollars each.

袁媛过去在酒厂办公室处理销售业务，订单稳定、源源不断。如今，她在一座装饰着巨型茅台瓶雕塑的小山脚下摆摊揽客。她所在酒厂的酒瓶使用白瓷瓶配红标签，外观与贵州茅台几乎无异，售价却仅有几十元一瓶。

“The economic climate has hurt us badly,” Ms. Yuan said.

“经济环境对我们打击太大了，”袁媛说。

袁媛在公园外推广黔醉酒业的白酒，小山上矗立着巨型瓶装的贵州茅台。茅台镇的一家白酒专卖店。

An acquired taste, the baijiu from Maotai, prized for its “sauce aroma,” tastes like grain alcohol blended with soy sauce and leaves its malodorous smell on the drinker’s breath for hours or even days.

茅台镇产的白酒是一种需要培养接受的口味，其著名的“酱香”口感像粮食酒混合酱油，饮用后冲鼻的酒气会在饮酒者的气息中留存几小时甚至几天。

“Under no, repeat no, circumstance should the president actually drink from his glass in response to banquet toasts” of baijiu, President Nixon was advised before his arrival in Beijing by his deputy national security adviser, Alexander Haig. (He ignored the warning.)

尼克松总统访华前，副国家安全顾问亚历山大·黑格曾警告他：“在宴会上，无论任何情况，重申一遍，任何情况，总统被敬酒时，都不能以饮酒作为回应，”他指的是白酒。（尼克松并未听从这一警告。）

Unlike many other Chinese products, from electric cars to stuffed toys, baijiu has struggled to break into foreign markers and relies almost entirely on domestic sales. For a time, these were so strong that Kweichow Moutai’s share price skyrocketed to make it China’s most valuable company, ahead of tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent.

与电动汽车、毛绒玩具等诸多中国产品不同，白酒始终难以打入海外市场，几乎完全依赖国内销售。曾几何时，国内需求极为旺盛，贵州茅台股价飙升，超越阿里巴巴、腾讯等科技巨头，成为中国市值最高的企业。

Over the past five years the company has lost more than a third of its market value. It also lost three managing directors to Communist Party corruption investigations and two more to management shake-ups forced by disappointing results.

过去五年，该公司市值蒸发超三分之一，还先后有三位总经理因中共反腐调查落马，另有两位因业绩不佳引发的管理层动荡离职。

Flying Fairy, the company’s flagship product, sold for more than $500 a bottle before China’s biggest property developer collapsed in late 2021 and set off a long slump in real estate prices. Known as “liquid gold,” it served for years as a stable alternative currency widely used to bribe officials.

贵州茅台的旗舰产品飞天茅台，在2021年底中国最大房企崩盘、引发房价长期下跌前，单瓶售价超3500元。这款被称为“液体黄金”的酒多年来作为稳定的替代货币，被广泛用于贿赂官员。

A bottle now sells for around $200.

如今，其单瓶售价仅约1400元。

茅台酒博物馆展出外国领导人访华饮用白酒的历史照片。

That is still expensive — far more than what it costs to produce — and a surge in demand for alcohol ahead of Chinese New Year festivities braked an accelerating decline of Moutai’s price.

这一价格仍然高昂，远高于生产成本，且春节前酒类需求激增，暂时遏制了茅台价格的加速下跌。

Flying Fairy’s loss of altitude, however, has still shattered the drink’s allure as a safe store of wealth for corrupt officials wary of holding cash and also for investors who had viewed buying up bottles of Moutai as a surefire bet.

但飞天茅台价格的大幅回落仍然彻底击碎了它作为避险财富储备的魅力——无论是对于不愿持有现金的腐败官员，还是将囤购茅台视为稳赚不赔投资的投资者。

Unable to unload unsold bottles on foreign markets, which last year gave China an immense trade surplus of $1.19 trillion but have little demand for high-octane sorghum spirits, China’s baijiu producers last year cut production nationwide by 12 percent, according to official statistics.

官方数据显示，由于无法在海外市场出售滞销库存（去年中国贸易顺差达1.19万亿美元，但海外对高度数高粱烈酒需求极低），中国白酒生产商去年全国产量削减12%。

China first put a damper on the “baijiu” business in 2012, when President Xi Jinping, newly installed as the country’s top leader, restricted drinking at military functions as part of a campaign to curb graft and drink-fueled indiscipline. Drinking baijiu fell further out of favor in 2016 after several officials in the central province of Anhui died from alcohol poisoning following boozy banquets.

中国对白酒行业的管控始于2012年，习近平主席就任国家最高领导人后，为遏制腐败与酒后失范行为，率先限制军队饮酒。2016年，中部省份安徽多名官员在酒宴后因过量酒精中毒身亡，白酒消费进一步失宠。

Starting last May, all alcohol, including Moutai, previously an indispensable feature of official and business banquets across China, has been banned at all government events.

从去年5月起，所有酒类——包括曾在全国公务与商务宴中不可或缺的茅台——被全面禁止出现在政府活动中。

“One drink can make you lose your position,” state media warned.

“一顿酒，就能丢‘乌纱帽’，”官媒如此警示。

A large red slogan atop the entrance to Kweichow Moutai’s huge distillery sends a somewhat different message: “Love our Moutai. Win glory for the country.” The company, which is still highly profitable but unaccustomed to communicating with the world outside its fortresslike premises, did not respond to interview requests.

而在贵州茅台巨大的酒厂入口上方，巨幅红色标语传递着截然不同的信息：“爱我茅台，为国争光。”这家依然盈利丰厚却不习惯与外界沟通的企业对采访请求未予回应。

贵州茅台酒厂正门。

Hardest hit by the downturn, however, are the small, privately owned distilleries, whose bottles of grain spirit never fetched the astronomical prices commanded by the state-controlled giant.

受行业低迷冲击最严重的是小型民营酒厂。它们生产的白酒从未达到那家国企巨头般的天价。

Li Ling, 36, a manager for another small baijiu producer, said sales were down by nearly 50 percent compared with last year. But he still declared himself an optimist, saying he had been steeled against setbacks by growing up in a poor farming family. He and his three siblings all escaped farm labor by finding jobs outside the family village.

36岁的李凌（音）是另一家小型白酒厂的经理，他表示销量较去年下滑近50%。但他仍自称乐观，称出身贫困农家的成长经历让他能直面挫折。他与三个兄弟姐妹都通过离开家乡外出务工摆脱了农活。

Whatever China’s current economic problems, Mr. Li said, there is no going back to past hardship. That people live much better now, he added, “is as obvious as a bug on a bald man’s head.”

李凌说，无论中国当前面临什么样的经济问题，都不可能回到过去的艰苦岁月。他还说，如今人们的生活有了明显的改善，“就像秃顶上的虱子——明摆着”。

Still, dozens of shops have shut down — or been shut down by government inspectors as part of a drive against counterfeit products and fraudulent sales techniques. An official notice on one shuttered store warned that it was illegal to claim to be a “special supplier of alcohol to the Communist Party or the military.”

即便如此，仍有数十家店铺关门——或是因政府打击假冒伪劣与虚假销售手段被查封。一家关闭店铺的官方通知显示，宣称自家的酒属于“党或军队特供”是违法行为。

The tight links between state business and baijiu, however, remain one of Maotai town’s main selling points.

但国企与白酒之间的紧密联系仍是茅台镇的核心卖点之一。

2月，茅台镇一家关门的白酒店。

Chinese Culture Liquor City, a sprawling hillside museum housed in a cluster of fake traditional pavilions, promotes baijiu by leaning heavily into the theme that drinking grain spirit, particularly Moutai, expresses national pride.

中国酒文化城是一座依山而建的庞大博物馆，由一片仿传统亭台楼阁构成，为了推广白酒，它极力强调，饮用粮食酒是民族自豪感的体现，尤其是茅台。

The museum features an A.I.-generated movie showing Americans turning their noses up at the Chinese drink at a 1915 trade fair in San Francisco, provoking fury from a representative from China, who smashes an earthenware container of baijiu onto the ground. The Americans, impressed by his fiery patriotic spirit, decide to take a taste and declare the Chinese alcohol excellent.

馆内一部人工智能生成的影片还原了1915年旧金山世博会的场景：美国人对这款中国白酒嗤之以鼻，激怒了中国代表，他将一坛白酒砸在地上。美国人被他炽热的爱国精神打动，决定品尝一下，最终称赞这款中国白酒品质卓越。

About 20 years later, according to local legend, Maotai helped revive Mao’s battered troops during the Long March. Passing through the town in 1935, exhausted Red Army soldiers are said to have treated their wounds and lifted their spirits with baijiu.

据当地传说，在此约20年后，茅台在长征中助力毛泽东麾下疲惫的红军重整旗鼓。1935年途经茅台镇时，筋疲力尽的红军战士用白酒疗伤、提振士气。

These days, eager to win young customers, Kweichow Moutai has developed baijiu-scented ice creams and a Moutai-flavored latte.

如今，为争取年轻消费者，贵州茅台还推出了白酒味冰淇淋与茅台风味拿铁。

Yuan Qingqing, a manager at Jinjiao, a private distillery employing more than 2,000 workers, acknowledged that the “market is shrinking.” But he added: “China will never abandon baijiu. We have over 5,000 years of history, and baijiu has a very long history, too.”

拥有2000余名员工的民营酒厂金窖酒业（音）经理袁庆庆（音）承认“市场在萎缩”，但他还说：“中国永远不会抛弃白酒。我们有5000多年的历史，白酒也有悠久的历史。”

在茅台“古城”入口处，一座巨型白酒瓶的旋转模型化身为儿童“旋转木马”，这座古城是当地传统民居的复刻再现。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last Monday that the United States “didn’t start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it.”

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯上周一表示，美国“不是这场战争的发动者，但在特朗普总统的领导下，我们会是战争的终结者”。

After he invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia put it this way: “We didn’t start the so-called war in Ukraine. Rather, we are trying to finish it.”

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京在2022年入侵乌克兰后也曾这样表态：“所谓乌克兰战争不是我们发动的。我们倒是在努力结束它。”

Mr. Putin’s war was a disastrous ground invasion of a fledgling democracy. Mr. Trump’s war on Iran is a sophisticated bombing campaign against an aggressive theocracy that was killing its own people in the streets. But some similarities are uncanny, starting with the White House and the Kremlin both trying to avoid calling their actions acts of war.

普京的战争对一个新生的民主国家发起了灾难性的地面入侵。而特朗普对伊朗的战争，则是一场针对一个在街头杀害本国人民、具有侵略性的神权政体所进行的精密轰炸行动。然而，其中的一些相似之处令人感到不安，首先便是白宫和克里姆林宫都在试图避免将自己的行为称为战争行为。

Asked last week if “this is war,” Speaker Mike Johnson responded: “I think it’s an operation.”

上周被问及“这是否是战争”时，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊回答道：“我认为这是一次行动。”

“This is a special military operation,” Mr. Johnson’s Russian counterpart, Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma speaker, said two months into his country’s invasion, sticking to the Kremlin’s official terminology. “If Russia had started a full-scale war, it would have been over long ago.”

“这是一次特别军事行动，”约翰逊在俄罗斯的对等官员、国家杜马主席维亚切斯拉夫·沃洛金在入侵开始两个月时如是说，他坚持使用克里姆林宫的官方术语。“如果俄罗斯发动的是全面战争，那它早就结束了。”

Shifting objectives, an exaggerated threat, an ambiguous mission: The many Russian echoes in the White House’s messaging on Iran underscore the risks of a vaguely defined, open-ended war in which the attacking party pins its hopes on regime change.

不断变动的目标、夸大的威胁、模糊的使命：白宫在伊朗问题上的表态多次回响着俄罗斯的辞令，这突显了一场定义模糊、不设期限且攻击方寄希望于“政权更迭”的战争所带来的风险。

“We haven’t even yet started anything in earnest,” Mr. Putin said in July 2022, trying to project defiance after months of fighting.

“我们甚至还没有真正动手，”普京在2022年7月说道，在数月的战斗，他试图表现一种轻蔑的态度。

“We haven’t even started hitting them hard,” Mr. Trump told CNN last Monday.

“我们甚至还没开始发力打击他们，”特朗普上周一告诉CNN。

I was in Moscow when Mr. Putin gave an early morning address to his nation on Feb. 24, 2022, announcing his “special military operation,” a term now so ingrained that its Russian initials, “S.V.O.,” are shorthand for the war against Ukraine.

2022年2月24日凌晨，当普京向全国发表讲话宣布“特别军事行动”时，我正在莫斯科。这个词现在已经如此深入人心，以至于其俄文首字母缩写“SVO”已成为对乌战争的代名词。

The speech portrayed decades of grievance with Ukraine and the West as leaving Russia “no other choice” but to attack. One of its most chilling moments was Mr. Putin’s plea to Ukrainian soldiers to “immediately lay down arms and go home,” and his warning that if they did not, “responsibility for the possible bloodshed will lie fully and wholly with the ruling Ukrainian regime.”

在那场讲话中，他称数十年来与乌克兰和西方的恩怨让俄罗斯“别无选择”，只能发动进攻。其中最令人不寒而栗的时刻之一是普京要求乌克兰士兵“立即放下武器回家”，并警告说如果他们不这样做，“可能发生的流血的责任，将完全由乌克兰政权承担”。

So it was startling when Mr. Trump struck similar notes, albeit in a “USA” baseball cap, in his overnight speech declaring “major combat operations” in Iran. Overstating the threat of Iran’s missiles, Mr. Trump spoke of decades of Iranian “bloodshed and mass murder,” and asserted that “we can’t take it anymore.” He said Iranian soldiers needed to “lay down your weapons” or “face certain death.”

因此，当特朗普在宣布对伊朗进行“重大作战行动”的深夜演讲中也表现出类似的态度时，令人感到震惊，尽管他当时戴着一顶写着“USA”的棒球帽。特朗普夸大了伊朗导弹的威胁，谈到了伊朗数十年的“流血和大规模屠杀”，并断言“我们不能再忍了”。他说伊朗士兵需要“放下武器”，否则“必死无疑”。

周五礼拜结束后，政府支持者在德黑兰的大莫萨拉清真寺游行。白宫本周在伊朗问题上传达的信息凸显了一场定义模糊、不设期限，且攻击方将希望寄托于“政权更迭”的战争所带来的风险。

I did another double take when Mr. Trump the next day repeated his call for Iranian soldiers to disarm, and urged Iranians to “seize this moment” and topple their government. Mr. Putin, too, tried again on the second day of his war to get Ukrainian soldiers to stop resisting, and to “take power into your own hands.”

次日特朗普再次要求伊朗士兵解除武装，并敦促伊朗人“抓住这一时刻”推翻政府时，我也再次以为自己眼花了。普京同样在战争的第二天再次尝试让乌克兰士兵停止抵抗，并要求他们“把权力掌握在自己手中”。

Western officials and Russian elites expected the war to be over quickly. Russian officers were told to pack their dress uniforms in anticipation of a quick military parade in Kyiv. But even as Russia was falsely claiming to have established “total air superiority” over Ukraine, its overextended supply lines in the military’s disastrous sprint for Kyiv became easy targets for Ukrainian artillery.

西方官员和俄罗斯精英曾预计战争会很快结束。俄罗斯军官甚至被告知带上礼服，准备在基辅举行快速的阅兵式。但即便在俄罗斯虚假地声称对乌克兰建立“绝对制空权”时，其军队在灾难性冲向基辅的过程中因补给线拉得过长，成为了乌克兰炮火的活靶子。

Days turned into weeks, which turned into months, which turned into years. The Ukrainians used ever-more-sophisticated Western weaponry for deadly strikes well behind the front lines, using coordinates provided by the United States.

天变成了周，周变成了月，月变成了年。乌克兰人使用日益先进的西方武器，利用美国提供的坐标，对前线后方进行了致命打击。

Along the way, Mr. Putin’s goals narrowed: from regime change — he called it the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine — to a focus on capturing all of the eastern Donbas region and keeping Ukraine out of NATO.

在此过程中，普京的目标不断缩小：从政权更迭（他称之为乌克兰的“去纳粹化”和“去军事化”）转向专注于占领整个东部顿巴斯地区并阻止乌克兰加入北约。

Now the toll of Mr. Putin’s war is approaching 500,000 lives. Ukraine’s military did not surrender, and President Volodymyr Zelensky is still in charge in Kyiv, leading what the Kremlin casts as a cabal of neo-Nazis.

如今，普京战争的死亡人数已接近50万。乌克兰军队没有投降，总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基依然在基辅掌权，领导着被克里姆林宫描绘为“新纳粹团伙”的国家。

Mr. Trump is only a week into his war, but there is no evidence that Iranian officials or soldiers are starting to surrender — maintaining the hold of a regime that Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of Washington’s loudest Iran hawks, refers to as “religious Nazis.”

特朗普的战争才开始一周，但目前还没有证据表明有伊朗官员或士兵开始投降——这个政权依然稳固。南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员、华盛顿最强硬的鹰派人物之一林赛·格雷厄姆称该政权为“宗教纳粹”。

As the Trump administration has floated shifting timelines for the Iran war, both pro- and anti-Kremlin bloggers from Russia started referring to Mr. Trump’s plan as “Tehran in three days.” It was a reference to “Kyiv in three days,” the ironic shorthand used to describe the Kremlin’s hubris in believing that Ukraine would quickly crumble.

随着特朗普政府不断提出变动的伊朗战争时间表，支持和反对克里姆林宫的俄罗斯博主都开始将特朗普的计划称为“三天攻下德黑兰”。这是在讽刺“三天攻下基辅”——一个用来形容克里姆林宫自大、认为乌克兰会迅速崩溃的讽刺性简称。

Mr. Putin had appeared to think he could repeat his lightning grab of Crimea in 2014, when he overruled his own advisers. Mr. Trump was riding high this year after he ordered his military to seize President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.

普京似乎曾认为他可以重复2014年闪电夺取克里米亚的行动，当时他否决了顾问们的意见。而特朗普在今年下令军队抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，正处于志得意满的状态。

Of course, Mr. Trump could still end the Iran war soon and claim success. On Saturday, he said Iran was “being beat to HELL,” and that he was considering “complete destruction and certain death” for more areas of the country.

当然，特朗普仍可能很快结束伊朗战争并宣布胜利。周六，他说伊朗正“被打得落花流水”，并表示他正考虑对该国更多地区实施“彻底毁灭和必死无疑”的打击。

But Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister at the time of Russia’s invasion, said that given the expansive U.S. goals, the Trump administration may be suffering from the same overconfidence that doomed Russia’s initial war plan.

但俄罗斯开始入侵时的乌克兰外长德米特罗·库列巴表示，考虑到美国宏大的目标，特朗普政府可能同样存在导致俄罗斯最初战争计划失败的那种“过度自信”。

“American commentators are again talking about a ‘short war,’” Mr. Kuleba posted on social media on Friday. “They said the same about Russia’s war against Ukraine. It will be short only if Washington quietly scales down its goals, gives up on regime change in Iran, and sells a much smaller outcome as victory.”

“美国评论人士又在谈论‘速战速决’了，”库列巴周五在社交媒体上发帖称。“他们在俄罗斯对乌战争中也说过同样的话。只有当华盛顿悄悄降低目标、放弃伊朗政权更迭，并将一个小得多的结果包装成胜利时，才能速战速决。”

“Breaking a large country,” he added, “is hard even for the United States.”

他补充道：“摧毁一个大国，即使对美国来说也很难。”

尽管弗拉基米尔·V·普京总统曾预想会取得速胜，但现实却是一场旷日持久且代价高昂的战争。

One striking difference is the poor performance of the Russian military and the sophistication of the U.S. and Israeli air campaign. But analysts say that the value of military firepower is limited when it is not clear what it is supposed to achieve.

一个显著的区别是俄罗斯军队的拙劣表现与美以空袭行动的精密程度。但分析人士表示，当不清楚行动究竟要实现什么目标时，军事火力的价值是有限的。

And the United States’ objectives keep shifting. Mr. Trump on Friday demanded “unconditional surrender” by Iran, while members of his cabinet have presented various, more limited goals, like destroying Iran’s nuclear program and its missile arsenal.

此外，美国的目标一直在变。特朗普周五要求伊朗“无条件投降”，而他的内阁成员则提出了各种更有限的目标，如摧毁伊朗的核计划及其导弹库。

Michael Kofman, a military analyst focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the war reflects “enduring historical lessons.” They include “the need for an alignment between military means and political aims, adjusting plans once initial assumptions are disproven, the need to think through second- and third-order effects.”

卡内基国际和平基金会关注俄乌战争的军事分析师迈克尔·科夫曼表示，这场战争反映了“久远的历史教训”，包括“军事手段与政治目标必须保持一致、在初始假设被证明错误后及时调整计划，以及需要深入思考二阶和三阶效应”。

Maria Lipman, a visiting professor of international studies at Northwestern University who focuses on Russia, said the echoes she saw in Mr. Trump’s war began with “the very improbability of what is happening.”

西北大学研究俄罗斯问题的访问教授玛丽亚·利普曼表示，她在特朗普战争中看到的一些熟悉的元素，首先就是“对正在发生的事感到难以相信”。

Russians largely tuned out the possibility that their president could start an all-out invasion of their neighbor, even as he massed troops. After the initial shock, many came to accept Mr. Putin’s claim that Western aggression against Russia left him no choice but to start his “special military operation.” Hundreds of thousands signed up to join the war, attracted by lucrative signing bonuses.

俄罗斯人大多曾不相信他们的总统会对邻国发动全面入侵，即使他当时正在集结军队。在最初的震惊之后，许多人开始接受普京的说法，即西方对俄罗斯的侵略让他别无选择，只能发动“特别军事行动”。数十万人因丰厚的签约费而报名参战。

Hundreds of thousands more fled abroad, including to Dubai, which has been attacked by Iranian drones similar to the ones Russia has used for years against Ukraine.

也有数十万人逃往国外，包括逃往最近遭到伊朗袭击的迪拜，伊朗使用的无人机，与俄罗斯这几年对付乌克兰的无人机相似。

“By starting a war with Iran, Trump stepped into the unknown,” Ms. Lipman said. “I think that there is more instability in store for the United States and the American people than they realize at this time.”

“通过发动对伊朗的战争，特朗普踏入了未知领域，”利普曼说。“我认为，美国和美国人民将面临比他们目前意识到的更多的动荡。”

A newly released video adds to the evidence that an American missile likely hit an Iranian elementary school where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed.

一段新发布的视频提供了进一步证据，表明一枚美国导弹很可能击中了一所伊朗小学。据报道，该校有175人丧生，其中许多是儿童。

The video, uploaded on Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The New York Times, shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking a naval base beside the school in the town of Minab on Feb. 28. The U.S. military is the only force involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles.

这段视频由伊朗半官方的迈赫尔通讯社在周日上传发布，《纽约时报》对其进行了核实。视频显示，在2月28日，一枚“战斧”巡航导弹击中了米纳卜市一所小学旁边的海军基地。在这场冲突中，美军是参与的军队中唯一使用“战斧”导弹的部队。

A body of evidence assembled by The Times — including satellite imagery, social media posts and other verified videos — indicates that the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on the naval base. The base is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

《纽约时报》收集的证据（包括卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和其他经过核实的视频）表明，沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学的校舍在一次精确打击中遭到严重破坏，而这次打击与对海军基地的攻击是在同一时间。该基地由伊斯兰革命卫队运营。

Asked by a reporter from The Times on Saturday if the United States had bombed the school, President Trump said: “No. In my opinion and based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” He said, “They’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions.”Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was standing beside Mr. Trump, said the Pentagon was investigating, “but the only side that targets civilians is Iran.”

上周六，当《纽约时报》记者问特朗普总统美国是否轰炸了这所学校时，他说：“没有。根据我的看法以及我看到的情况，这是伊朗干的。”他说，“他们的弹药非常不精确，你是知道的。”站在特朗普旁边的国防部长皮特·海格塞斯说，五角大楼正在进行调查，“但唯一会以平民为目标的只有伊朗。”

The video of the strike, which was first reported by the research collective Bellingcat, was independently verified by The Times. We compared features visible in the footage to new satellite imagery captured days after the strikes in Minab.

这段打击视频最早由调查机构Bellingcat报道，《纽约时报》随后进行了独立核实。我们将视频中的可见特征与米纳卜在袭击发生几天后拍摄的最新卫星图像进行了对比。

The video was filmed from a construction site opposite the base and shows a worn, dirt path across a grassy area and piles of debris also evident in recent satellite imagery, bolstering its credibility. The video also comports with other verified videos taken in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.

该视频是在基地对面的一个建筑工地拍摄的，显示了一条穿过草地的土路以及一堆堆瓦砾，这些特征在最近的卫星图像中也能看到，从而增强了视频的可信度。这段视频还与其他在袭击刚发生后拍摄并经核实的视频相吻合。

A Times analysis of the video shows the missile striking a building described as a medical clinic in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base. Plumes of smoke and debris shoot out of the building after it is hit as the distant screams of onlookers are heard.

时报对视频的分析显示，导弹击中了伊斯兰革命卫队基地内一栋被描述为医疗诊所的建筑。导弹命中后，建筑内喷出浓烟，碎片飞溅，远处传来旁观者的尖叫声。

As the camera pans to the right, large plumes of dust and smoke are already billowing from the area around the elementary school, suggesting that it had been struck shortly before the strike on the naval base. This is supported by a timeline of the strikes assembled by The Times that shows the school was hit around the time as the base.

当镜头向右移动时，可以看到小学所在区域已经腾起巨大的尘土和烟雾，这表明在海军基地被击中之前不久，小学就已经遭到打击。《纽约时报》整理的时间线也支持这一点，显示学校与基地几乎同时遭到袭击。

Several other buildings inside the naval base were also hit by precision strikes in the attack, an analysis of satellite imagery showed. Determining precisely what happened has been impeded by the lack of visible weapons fragments and the inability of outside reporters to reach the scene.

对卫星图像的分析显示，海军基地内的其他几座建筑也在袭击中被精确击中。由于现场没有明显的武器残骸，而且外部记者无法进入现场，因而对于究竟发生了什么难以做出准确判断。

The Times has identified the weapon seen in the new video as a Tomahawk cruise missile, a weapon that neither the Israeli military nor the Iranian military has. Dozens of Tomahawks have been launched by U.S. Navy warships into Iran since Feb. 28, when the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began.

《纽约时报》确定新视频中的武器是“战斧”巡航导弹，而以色列军队和伊朗军队都没有这种武器。自2月28日美以对伊朗发动袭击以来，美国海军军舰已向伊朗发射了数十枚“战斧”导弹。

U.S. Central Command said a video it released of several Tomahawks being launched from Navy ships was filmed on Feb. 28, the day the Iranian base and school were hit.

美国中央司令部表示，它发布的一段从海军舰艇上发射数枚“战斧”导弹的视频也是在2月28日拍摄的，正是伊朗基地和学校遭袭的那一天。

The Defense Department describes Tomahawks as “long-range, highly accurate” guided missiles that can fly about 1,000 miles. They are programmed with a specific flight plan before launch, and the missiles steer themselves to their targets.Each Tomahawk is about 20 feet long and has a wingspan of eight and a half feet, according to the Navy. The most commonly used Tomahawks have warheads that contain the explosive power of about 300 pounds of TNT.

美国国防部将“战斧”导弹描述为“远程、高精度”的制导导弹，可以飞行约1600公里。它们在发射前被设定了特定的飞行计划，然后导弹自行导向目标。根据海军的说法，每枚“战斧”导弹长约6米，翼展约2.6米。最常使用的型号配备的弹头爆炸威力相当于约135公斤TNT。

Trevor Ball, a former U.S. Army explosive ordnance disposal technician, also identified the missile in the video as a Tomahawk, as did another weapons expert, Chris Cobb-Smith, director of Chiron Resources, a security and logistics agency.

前美国陆军爆炸物处理技术人员特雷弗·鲍尔以及另一名武器专家、安全和物流机构Chiron Resources的负责人克里斯·科布-史密斯也都确认视频中的导弹是“战斧”导弹。

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. forces were carrying out strikes in southern Iran at the time the naval base and school were hit. A map he presented showed that an area including Minab, which is near the Strait of Hormuz, had been targeted by strikes in the first 100 hours of the operation, although it did not explicitly identify the town.

参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将在上周三的新闻发布会上表示，海军基地和学校遭到袭击时，美军正在伊朗南部执行打击任务。他展示的地图显示，包括靠近霍尔木兹海峡的米纳卜在内的区域在行动最初100小时内被列为打击目标，不过地图上并未明确标出该市。

“Along the southern axis, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln strike group has continued to provide pressure from the sea along the southeastern side of the coast and has been attriting naval capability all along the strait,” the general said.

凯恩说：“在南部战线，林肯号航空母舰打击群继续从海上对东南沿海施加压力，并持续消耗霍尔木兹海峡沿线的伊朗海军能力。”

It is not the only time that General Caine has acknowledged the role Tomahawk missiles played in the early hours of the war.

这并非凯恩将军首次承认“战斧”导弹在这场战争初期发挥的作用。

“The first shooters at sea were Tomahawks unleashed by the United States Navy,” he said in a briefing to reporters at the Pentagon on March 2, as the Navy “began to conduct strikes across the southern flank in Iran.”

“海上的首批攻击力量是由美国海军发射的‘战斧’导弹，”他在3月2日于五角大楼向记者通报情况时表示，当时海军“已开始对伊朗南部的侧翼展开打击”。

In June, a Navy submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawks at a nuclear facility in Isfahan, Iran, as part of the 12-Day war.

在去年6月那场持续12天的战争中，美国海军一艘潜艇还曾向伊朗伊斯法罕的一处核设施发射了二十多枚“战斧”导弹。

Oil prices surged on Sunday evening, briefly topping $110 a barrel soon after markets opened, in a sign of growing concern that the war in the Middle East will continue to take a toll on energy supplies.

周日晚间，原油价格大幅飙升，开盘后不久一度突破每桶110美元。这表明市场愈发担心持续的中东战争将对能源供应造成严重冲击。

It was the first time in almost four years that the global oil benchmark, known as Brent, cost more than $100 a barrel. Oil is now around 50 percent more expensive than it was before the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28.

这是全球原油基准价格——布伦特原油——近四年来首次突破100美元大关。目前，油价已比2月28日美国与以色列开始打击伊朗前高出约50%。

In Asia, where economies are heavily dependent on imported oil from the Middle East, stocks tumbled in early trading on Monday, falling about 6 percent in Japan and South Korea. U.S. stock futures, which give traders the chance to bet on the market before exchanges open, fell on Sunday evening. Futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones industrial average all fell roughly 1.5 percent.

在经济高度依赖中东进口石油的亚洲，股市在周一早盘大幅下挫，日本和韩国股市跌幅均在6%左右。美国股指期货在周日晚间同样走低，标普500指数、纳斯达克综合指数及道琼斯工业平均指数的期货跌幅均约为1.5%。

President Trump, who campaigned partly on lowering the cost of energy, said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday described the higher oil prices as “short term” and said they were “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.”

特朗普总统曾在竞选中承诺降低能源成本，但他周日在Truth Social上发帖称，油价上涨是“暂时的”，并表示这是“为了美国及世界的安全与和平而付出的极小代价”。

The huge jump in oil prices suggests that traders are increasingly worried about being able to access oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern coast, has been all but closed for more than a week, preventing fuel produced in the region from reaching overseas markets. One-fifth of the world’s oil and substantial amounts of natural gas normally move through the strait each day.

油价的巨幅跳升反映出交易员们日益担心波斯湾油气出口的稳定性。位于伊朗南岸的霍尔木兹海峡已基本封锁超过一周，导致该地区生产的燃料无法进入海外市场。通常情况下，全球五分之一的石油和相当一部分天然气每日需经此海峡运输。

With little sign that shipping will soon be able to return to normal, higher oil prices will continue to drive up prices at the pump at a time when many Americans are worried about the economy. As of Sunday, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline had already climbed about 16 percent since the war started, to a national average of $3.45, according to the AAA motor club. Diesel prices had risen at a faster clip of around 22 percent.

目前几乎没有迹象表明航运能很快恢复正常，高企的油价将持续推高加油站的零售价格，而此时许多美国人正对经济前景感到担忧。据美国汽车协会数据，截至周日，全美普通汽油平均零售价自开战以来已上涨约16%，达到每加仑3.45美元；柴油价格涨幅更高，约为22%。

Natural gas, which is used to heat homes and generate electricity, has also become more expensive, particularly in Europe and in Asia, which depend heavily on imported fuel. Natural gas markets are more regional than oil markets, meaning that the United States, as the world’s top natural gas producer, has been comparatively insulated. As of Sunday evening, U.S. prices were up around 17 percent since the war started.

用于家庭供暖和发电的天然气价格也变得更加昂贵，尤其是在高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲和亚洲。相比石油，天然气市场更具区域性，这意味着作为全球最大天然气生产国的美国受到的冲击相对较小。截至周日晚间，美国天然气价格自开战以来上涨了约17%。

Earlier on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to play down the risk that energy prices would remain high for a long time.

周日早些时候，能源部长克里斯·赖特试图淡化能源价格长期走高的风险。

“You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace, but the world is not short of oil today or natural gas,” Mr. Wright told CNN. He said he expected shipping through the strait to be disrupted for weeks in the worst-case scenario, not months.

“你现在看到的是市场中的一些‘恐惧溢价’，但目前全球并不缺石油或天然气，”赖特在接受CNN采访时表示。他预计，在最坏的情况下，通过海峡的航运中断将持续数周而非数月。

Mr. Trump said last week that the U.S. Navy might escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but Mr. Wright said U.S. forces were focused on limiting Iran’s missile and drone capabilities.

特朗普上周曾表示美国海军可能会为霍尔木兹海峡的油轮护航，但赖特表示，美军目前的重点是限制伊朗的导弹和无人机能力。

The sudden increase in oil and gas prices has raised concerns about inflation. The Federal Reserve typically counters rising prices by keeping interest rates high, to slow the economy and the pace of inflation. But weak jobs data on Friday bolstered the case for a rate cut, setting up a tug of war over the path forward.

油气价格的突然暴涨引发了对通胀的担忧。美联储通常会通过维持高利率来对抗物价上涨，以减缓经济和通胀的速度。然而，周五疲软的就业数据增加了降息的理由，意味着接下来围绕这一决策将会有一场拉锯战。

A measure of investors’ inflation expectations has risen sharply. Investors now expect inflation to rise to around 4.5 percent over the next 12 months, from a forecast of 2.3 percent at the start of the year.

衡量投资者通胀预期的指标已大幅攀升。投资者目前预计未来12个月的通胀率将达到4.5%左右，而年初的预测仅为2.3%。

That has helped push up government bond yields, which underpin borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, has risen roughly 0.2 percentage points since the war began, to 3.56 percent.

这一预期推高了政府债券收益率，进而抬高了企业和消费者的借贷成本。对利率预期敏感的两年期美国国债收益率自战争开始以来已上升约0.2个百分点，达到3.56%。

The sudden and furious attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran this past week, including the killing of the country’s supreme leader, are confirming Xi Jinping’s worldview that hard power is king.

过去一周，美国和以色列军队对伊朗发动了突然且猛烈的攻击，击杀了伊朗最高领袖，这正在印证习近平的一种世界观：硬实力为王。

For years, Mr. Xi, China’s top leader, has warned his country about American military hostility and directed his generals to build a world-class army, or what he called a “Great Wall of Steel,” strong enough to deter the United States and ensure peace on Beijing’s terms.

多年来，中国最高领导人习近平一直警告国内要警惕美国的军事敌意，并指示军方打造一支世界一流的军队——他称之为“钢铁长城”，其强大程度要足以威慑美国，并确保按照北京设定的条件实现和平。

“It is necessary to speak to invaders in the language they know,” Mr. Xi once said. “That is, a war must be fought to deter invasion, and a victory is needed to win peace and respect.”

习近平曾说：“对待侵略者，就得用他们听得懂的语言同他们对话，这就是以战止战、以武止戈，用胜利赢得和平、赢得尊重。”

Mr. Xi’s more than decade-long pursuit of the power to fight fire with fire is now given added urgency because of President Trump’s unapologetic use of military force, which is threatening governments and disrupting a global order that China increasingly sees itself as eventually leading.

十多年来，习近平一直致力于打造以牙还牙的军事能力。如今，由于特朗普总统毫不掩饰地动用军事力量，这一努力显得更加迫切。特朗普的做法不仅威胁各国政府，也正在冲击现有的全球秩序，而中国越来越认为自己终将成为这一秩序的领导者。

While Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump are set to meet in several weeks in Beijing to extend a fragile truce after a punishing trade war last year, the specter of brute American force taking down sovereign leaders like Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and capturing others like President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela remains unsettling for China. Both Ayatollah Khamenei and Mr. Maduro were strategic partners to Beijing.

习近平与特朗普预计将在数周后于北京会晤，以延续去年贸易战后达成的一项脆弱的休战协议。然而，美国以强力手段推翻主权国家领导人——伊朗的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊被击杀、委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被抓捕——仍然令中国感到不安。哈梅内伊和马杜罗都曾是北京的战略伙伴。

Chinese analysts and officials do not believe the United States would target Mr. Xi in the same way, given China’s status as a nuclear power. But Mr. Trump’s embrace of war as a tool to assert American dominance has nonetheless reaffirmed Beijing’s view that the United States remains China’s most enduring threat.

中国的分析人士和官员认为，鉴于中国是一个核武国家，美国不太可能以同样方式针对习近平。但特朗普把战争当作维护美国主导地位工具的做法无疑强化了北京的看法：美国始终是中国最持久的威胁。

9月在北京举行的纪念二战结束80周年阅兵式上，中国展示了核导弹。

One influential Chinese political scientist, Zheng Yongnian at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s campus in Shenzhen, highlighted perceptions in China that the United States was using Israel as a springboard to go to war with Iran. As such, he said, China must prevent geopolitical rivals like Japan and the Philippines — both treaty allies of the United States — from becoming the “Israel of East Asia” and the “Israel of Southeast Asia.”

颇具影响力的政治学者、香港中文大学（深圳）的郑永年指出，中国国内普遍认为，美国利用以色列作为跳板对伊朗发动战争。他说，正因如此，中国必须防止日本和菲律宾等地缘政治对手——这两个国家都是美国的条约盟友——成为“东亚的以色列“和”东南亚的以色列“。

“We must avoid these nations being led by the nose by the United States to achieve their own objectives,” Mr. Zheng told The Beijing News.

郑永年在接受《新京报》采访时说：“要避免这些国家像以色列一样牵着美国鼻子走，来达到自己的目的。”

Other analysts, like Shen Dingli, an international relations expert based in Shanghai, said the demonstration of American military might was forcing China to take a “sober look at the balance of power.”

另一些分析人士，如上海的国际关系专家沈丁立则表示，美国军事力量的展示正在迫使中国“冷静审视力量对比”。

“Beijing now sees more clearly the extent of American capabilities,” Mr. Shen said.

沈丁立说：“北京现在更清楚地看到了美国的实力。”

China is watching the conflict not unlike the way it did during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when the powerful display of advanced U.S. military weaponry was a wake-up call to modernize the People’s Liberation Army.

中国正在关注这场冲突，就像当年观察1991年海湾战争那样。当时，美国先进军事武器的强大展示给中国人民解放军敲响了推进现代化的警钟。

Already, China’s military posted a graphic on social media this week listing five lessons from the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Among them were the importance of “superior firepower,” echoing Mr. Xi’s mantra. It also listed the need for “self-reliance,” most likely a reference to China’s bid to reduce its dependence on other countries for critical inputs like energy and defense production.

本周，中国军方已经在社交媒体上发布了一张图表，总结美以对伊朗打击带来的五点教训。其中之一是“武器批判”，这呼应了习近平的一贯论调。图表还提到必须依靠“自己”，这很可能指中国努力减少对其他国家在能源和国防生产等关键要素方面的依赖。

上周四，一个家庭抵达德黑兰参加悼念活动，悼念被美国和以色列空袭炸死的伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。

Top of the list, however, was that China must guard against “the enemy within,” an apparent catchall to describe Beijing’s longstanding fear of foreign spying and any efforts to foment “color revolutions” to overthrow the government. Mr. Xi has built a ruthless security apparatus to guard against such threats, which can be real: Last month, the C.I.A. released a new video aimed at recruiting spies within China’s military, hoping to exploit a sweeping anti-corruption campaign by Mr. Xi that has purged numerous senior commanders.

不过，排在首位的教训是中国必须警惕“内奸”。这一表述显然是一个笼统概念，用来描述北京长期以来对外国间谍活动以及煽动“颜色革命”推翻政府企图的担忧。习近平已经建立起一套强硬的安全体系来防范这些威胁，而这些威胁有时也确实存在：上个月，美国中央情报局发布了一段新视频，试图在中国军队内部招募间谍，希望利用习近平反腐行动清洗大量高级指挥官所带来的不满情绪。

One of the broadest takeaways being discussed in China is to not be lulled into a false sense of security by entering negotiations with Washington. That the first U.S. and Israeli bombs fell on Iran when the parties were still supposed to be in talks struck Beijing as duplicitous and an abuse of American power.

目前中国国内正在广泛讨论的一点是，不要因为与华盛顿谈判而产生虚假的安全感。当美国和以色列的第一枚炸弹落在伊朗时，各方原本仍处于谈判之中，北京视之为虚伪和美国滥用权力。

“The decision to strike while talks were underway conveys a disturbing precedent: Diplomacy is not a forum for sovereign equals but an instrument subject to the whims of the dominant power,” read an editorial in Chinese state media.

中国官方媒体的一篇社论写道：“在谈判仍在进行时发动打击开创了一个令人不安的先例：外交不再是主权国家平等协商的平台，而是受制于主导力量意志的工具。”

Under the Trump administration, Chinese analysts say, the United States has become more unpredictable and more dangerous, forcing China to be increasingly vigilant.

中国分析人士认为，在特朗普政府时期，美国变得更加不可预测，也更加危险，这迫使中国必须更加警惕。

“The strategic takeaway for China is pretty simple,” said Song Zhongping, a former Chinese military officer who is now an independent commentator. “Don’t assume your adversaries will play by the rules. They may strike without warning, and they may do whatever it takes, ignoring both the rules of the game and the rules of war.”

前中国军官、现为独立评论员的宋忠平说：“对中国来说，战略上的结论其实很简单：不要假设你的对手会按规则行事。他们可能在没有任何预警的情况下发动打击，也可能不惜一切代价，无视游戏规则和战争规则。”

1月，委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗和他的妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯被押下直升机，前往曼哈顿的联邦法院。

That has implications for how Beijing assesses Washington’s sincerity at a time when Mr. Trump has signaled that he wants to be less confrontational with China. His administration recently delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing. While that might appear like an olive branch, analysts said Mr. Xi would most likely remain skeptical and undeterred from his military buildup.

这也影响到北京如何评估华盛顿的诚意。特朗普近期表示希望减少与中国的对抗。他的政府最近推迟宣布一项对台湾的军售计划，北京宣称对这个自治岛屿拥有主权。虽然这看起来像是橄榄枝，但分析人士认为，习近平很可能仍然保持怀疑态度，并不会因此放缓军事建设。

“From Beijing’s perspective, the United States may frame its actions as a pursuit of peace, but what it really offers is peace through domination or containment,” said Kirsten Asdal, who leads the China-focused consultancy firm Asdal Advisory Group. “Xi doesn’t want that for China. He wants peace through Chinese victory.”

研究中国问题的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询负责人柯尔斯滕·阿斯达尔说：“在北京看来，美国可能将其行动包装成追求和平，但它真正提供的是通过支配或遏制实现的和平。习近平不希望中国接受这种和平。他希望通过中国的胜利实现和平。”

To accomplish that, Mr. Xi has already created one of the world’s most formidable militaries, one buoyed by a giant navy and advanced weapons like stealth drones and hypersonic missiles that are designed to thwart U.S. attempts to come to Taiwan’s defense if China decides to invade.

为实现这一目标，习近平已经打造出世界上最具实力的军队之一，这支军队拥有规模庞大的海军，以及隐形无人机和高超音速导弹等先进武器。这些武器的设计目的之一就是在中国决定进攻台湾时阻止美国前来支援。

China’s chokehold on the mining and processing of critical minerals used to manufacture a spectrum of modern technologies, from cellphones to precision-guided missiles, has also supercharged Beijing’s leverage in the world, getting Mr. Trump to back down on his tariffs.

中国在关键矿产的开采和加工领域的垄断地位也极大增强了北京在全球的影响力，并迫使特朗普在关税问题上让步。这些矿产被用于制造从手机到精确制导导弹的各种现代技术。

And on Thursday, China’s national legislature released the country’s next five-year plan, which included pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies to further resist U.S. pressure.

此外，中国全国人大上周四公布了新的五年规划，其中包括向人工智能、量子计算以及其他战略技术领域投入大量资源，以进一步抵御美国压力。

中国垄断了许多现代技术所需的关键矿物的开采和加工。位于无锡郊外的一家精炼厂是世界上唯一一家生产超纯镝的工厂，超纯镝是人工智能芯片必需的材料。

Those efforts underscore the view in China that Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump speak the same language when it comes to valuing hard power, but that their means of achieving and wielding it are vastly different.

这些举措凸显出中国的一种看法：在重视硬实力这一点上，习近平与特朗普实际上说的是同一种语言，但两人实现和运用这种力量的方式却截然不同。

Beijing has used America’s military actions as a way to cast itself by contrast as a peaceful nation that champions global stability — despite ample evidence to the contrary, such as China’s aggressive military behavior in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

北京一直利用美国的军事行动将自己塑造成一个倡导全球稳定的和平国家——尽管存在大量相反证据，例如中国在台湾海峡和南海的强势军事行为。

For China, “strength is for self-defense and stability, not expansion,” said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

北京大学全球合作与理解研究院执行院长王栋说，对中国而言，“实力是为了自卫和稳定，而不是为了扩张”。

When the United States seeks strength, he continued, it does so with “disproportionate raw hard power” that ultimately cannot guarantee any of its goals, such as the emergence of a friendly and peaceful government in Iran.

他还说，美国寻求实力时依赖的是“失衡的、赤裸裸的硬实力”，而这种力量最终无法保证实现其目标，例如在伊朗出现一个友好而和平的政府。

“What we are witnessing,” Mr. Wang said, “is the last-ditch efforts of a fading U.S.-led order.”

王栋说：“我们正在所看到的，是一个由美国主导的秩序在走向衰落时的最后挣扎。”

Western analysts are more skeptical about China’s professed modesty, saying Beijing, too, is likely to decide that it needs a larger military presence overseas and will risk becoming engaged in foreign entanglements.

西方分析人士则对中国所宣称的克制态度更加怀疑。他们认为北京也可能认为需要在海外拥有更大的军事存在，并可能因此卷入外国纷争。

“China,” said Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, “will feel the same tractor beam that pulls all great powers toward building capabilities that can reach further from home.”

兰德公司中国研究中心主任裘德·布兰切特说：“中国也会感受到那种吸引所有大国的‘牵引力’，促使它们不断建设能够把力量投射到更远地区的能力。”

The Feb. 28 strike that hit an elementary school in the southern Iranian town of Minab is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the United States and Israel attacked Iran — and no side has yet taken responsibility.

2月28日对伊朗南部米纳卜市一所小学的袭击是美国和以色列打击伊朗以来已知的导致平民死亡最惨重的事件——而到目前为止，没有任何一方承认对此负责。

But a body of evidence assembled by The New York Times — including newly released satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos — indicates the school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on an adjacent naval base operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

但《纽约时报》整理的一系列证据——包括新发布的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实验证的视频——表明，这栋校舍是在一次精准打击中遭到严重破坏的，而在同一时间，邻近的伊斯兰革命卫队海军基地也遭到了袭击。

And official statements that U.S. forces were attacking naval targets near the Strait of Hormuz, where the I.R.G.C. base is located, suggest they were most likely to have carried out the strike.

由于伊朗革命卫队的这个基地就位于霍尔木兹海峡附近，而美军官方声明称正在打击该地区的各处海军目标，因此这次袭击极有可能是美军实施的。

The White House referred The Times to remarks by the press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, at a news conference on Wednesday. When asked if the United States had conducted the airstrike on the school, she responded, “Not that we know of,” adding that “the Department of War is investigating this matter.”

白宫让《纽约时报》参考新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在周三新闻发布会上的表态。当被问及美国是否对这所学校进行了空袭时，她回答说，“据我们所知没有”，并补充道，“战争部正在调查此事。”

Determining precisely what happened has been impeded by the lack of visible weapons fragments and the inability of outside reporters to reach the scene. The total death toll has yet to be independently confirmed, but Iranian health officials and state media said the strike had killed at least 175 people, many of them children, at the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school.

由于看不到武器碎片，外部记者也无法抵达现场，因此很难准确确定到底发生了什么。死亡总人数尚未得到独立证实，但伊朗卫生官员和官方媒体称，袭击造成沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学至少175人死亡，其中许多是儿童。

卫星图像显示出2月28日伊朗南部米纳卜市小学遭受袭击后的破坏程度。

In the several days since the attack, U.S. officials have neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that an investigation was underway. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, told reporters on Sunday that “as of now,” he was not aware of any Israeli military operation “in that area” at the time.

在袭击发生后的几天里，美国官员既没有确认也没有否认责任。美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯周三表示，相关调查正在进行中。以色列军方发言人纳达夫·肖沙尼周日对记者表示，“截至目前”，他并不知道以色列军队当时在“该地区”有任何军事行动。

U.S. officials in public statements have indicated that on the day in question, U.S. planes were conducting operations in the region where the school was located.

美国官员在公开声明中表示，事发当天，美军飞机确实在这所学校所在的地区执行了军事行动。

2月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前，工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。

The elementary school is in the small southern town of Minab, more than 600 miles from Tehran but near the critical waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. Since Saturday is the start of the Iranian workweek, children and teachers were in class at the time of the strike, health officials and Iranian state media said.

这所小学位于伊朗南部小城米纳卜，距离德黑兰近1000公里，但靠近战略要道霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗的工作周从星期六开始，据伊朗卫生官员和官方媒体称，袭击发生时孩子们和教师正在上课。

The strikes were first reported on social media shortly after 11:30 a.m. local time. An analysis of those posts — as well as bystander photos and videos captured within an hour of the strikes — help corroborate that the school was hit at the same time as the naval base. One video, pinpointed by geolocation experts, showed several large plumes of smoke billowing from the area of the base and the school.

袭击发生不久后，当地时间上午11点30分刚过，社交媒体上首次出现了相关消息。对这些帖子以及袭击发生后一小时内拍摄的目击者照片和视频的分析，有助于证实该校与海军基地几乎同时遭到袭击。其中一段经地理定位专家确认的视频显示，从基地和学校所在区域升起了几股巨大的浓烟。

Images showing extensive damage to the school building were shared by an Iranian rights group soon after, and videos posted by Iranian media and independently verified by The Times showed throngs of people searching through rubble for survivors and victims.

一个伊朗人权组织很快发布了学校建筑遭到严重破坏的图片，伊朗媒体发布并经《纽约时报》独立核实的视频显示，大批民众在废墟中搜寻幸存者和遇难者。

Another video was filmed by a motorist passing the entrance of the Revolutionary Guards base. The video showed the Revolutionary Guards’ insignia on two entrances to the compound and signs for a naval medical command.

另一段视频由一名驾车经过革命卫队基地入口的司机拍摄。视频中可以看到基地两个入口处的革命卫队标识，以及指向海军医疗指挥部的指示牌。

《纽约时报》的分析发现，被击中的军事建筑上方升起了黑色烟柱。

To more fully assess the damage inside the base and what might have caused it, The Times ordered new satellite imagery from the provider Planet Labs. An image taken on Wednesday further corroborated the chronology.

The imagery shows that multiple precision strikes hit at least six Revolutionary Guards buildings along with the school. Four buildings inside the naval base were completely destroyed and two other buildings showed impact points at the center of their roofs, consistent with such precision hits.

为了更全面地评估基地内部的损毁情况及其可能原因，《纽约时报》从卫星图像提供商Planet Labs订购了新的卫星图像。周三拍摄的一张图像进一步印证了事件发生的时间顺序。

Wes J. Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the U.S. Air Force and was a senior adviser on civilian harm at the Pentagon, reviewed the new satellite images and concluded that all of the buildings, including the school, had been hit with “picture perfect” target strikes.

图像显示，多次精确打击击中了革命卫队基地内至少六栋建筑以及这所学校。海军基地内的四座建筑被完全摧毁，另外两座建筑的屋顶中央有明显的撞击点，符合精准打击的特征。

Mr. Bryant, who has been critical of the Trump administration, said the most likely explanation was that the school had been a “target misidentification” — that forces had attacked the site without realizing that it might have had large numbers of civilians inside.

曾在空军服役、在五角大楼担任过平民伤害问题高级顾问的国家安全分析师韦斯·布莱恩特分析了这些新卫星图像后得出结论，所有建筑（包括学校）都是被“堪称完美”的目标打击命中的。

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. forces were carrying out strikes at the time along southern Iran. A map he presented showed that an area including Minab had been targeted by strikes in the first 100 hours of the operation, although it did not explicitly identify the town.

一直对特朗普政府持批评态度的布莱恩特表示，最有可能的解释是，这所学校被“误判为目标”，也就是说，发动攻击的部队在打击时没有意识到该地点可能有大量平民。

At the same briefing, General Caine said Israeli forces had predominantly been operating farther north in the country. He also identified several U.S. military operations targeting the southern and southeastern areas of Iran, without mentioning any Israeli activity there.

参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周三的新闻发布会上表示，美军当时正在伊朗南部实施打击。他展示的一张地图显示，在行动的最初100小时内，包括米纳卜在内的地区成为了打击目标，尽管地图并未明确标出该市。

在同一场简报会上，凯恩将军表示，以色列军队主要在伊朗更靠北的地区行动。他还提到，美军在伊朗南部和东南部开展了多项军事行动，但没有提及以军在当地有任何行动。

Specifically, General Caine said: “Along the southern axis, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln strike group has continued to provide pressure from the sea along the southeastern side of the coast and has been attriting naval capability all along the strait.”The school at one point was part of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base, according to satellite images from 2013 reviewed by The Times. Roads had led from other areas of the base to the school building that was struck on Saturday. But by September 2016, satellite images show, the same building was partitioned off and was no longer connected to the base.

Publicly available historical satellite imagery shows the structure bears the hallmarks of a school, including a sports field and other recreational areas that were added over time.

凯恩将军具体介绍说：“在南部战线，林肯号航空母舰打击群继续从海上对东南沿海施加压力，并持续消耗霍尔木兹海峡沿线的伊朗海军能力。”根据《纽约时报》查阅的2013年卫星图像，这所学校曾一度是革命卫队海军基地的一部分。当时，从基地其他区域有道路通向周六遭到打击的那栋学校建筑。但卫星图像显示，到2016年9月，这栋建筑已被隔离出来，不再与基地相连。

“Given the U.S.’s intelligence capabilities, they should have known that a school was in the vicinity,” said Beth Van Schaack, a former State Department official who teaches at Stanford University’s Center for Human Rights and International Justice.

公开的历史卫星图像显示，该建筑具备学校的典型特征，包括一个运动场和后来增加的其他活动设施。

Some theories have circulated online suggesting that a misfired Iranian missile was responsible for the strike on the school, but The Times and other online analysts debunked the claim, in part by determining that a single errant missile wouldn’t have caused such precise and targeted damage to several buildings across the naval base.

斯坦福大学人权与国际司法中心教师、美国国务院前官员贝丝·范沙克表示：“以美国的情报能力，他们本应该知道附近有一所学校。”

U.S. officials say the strike is still under investigation. If it’s confirmed to be an American bomb that hit Shajarah Tayyebeh, one question is likely to be whether the school strike was a mistake or whether it was targeted based on outdated information.

网络上也流传一些说法，称袭击学校的是一枚误射的伊朗导弹，但《纽约时报》和其他网络分析人士已否定了这一说法，部分依据是：一枚偏离的导弹不可能对海军基地内的几栋建筑造成如此精确和有针对性的破坏。

Janina Dill, an expert on the laws of war at Oxford University, said attackers were obligated to “verify the status” of what they targeted to ensure that civilians were not being harmed. Failure to do so could violate international law, she added.

美国官员表示，这次打击仍在调查之中。如果最终确认击中沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学的是一枚美国炸弹，那么一个关键问题将是：袭击学校究竟是一次误击，还是基于过时情报而进行的目标锁定。

Reporting was contributed by Sanam Mahoozi, Kiana Hayeri, Parin Behrooz, Aric Toler, Shawn McCreesh and Eric Schmitt. Videos produced by Alexander Cardia, Cynthia Silva and Dmitriy Khavin. Graphics editing was contributed by Rafaela Balster.

牛津大学战争法专家贾尼娜·迪尔表示，攻击方有义务“核实目标的身份”，以确保不会伤害平民。她补充说，如果未能做到这一点，可能会违反国际法。

Perhaps no business needs certainty more than the auto industry. It usually takes at least four years to design a new model and bring it to market, requiring carmakers to divine what buyers will find appealing by the time the vehicles reach showrooms.

或许没有哪个行业比汽车业更需要确定性。一款新车型从设计到上市通常至少需要四年时间，这要求车企必须预判出当车辆最终进入展厅时，消费者会青睐哪些特性。

Yet industry veterans say they can’t remember a time when the biggest carmakers faced as much uncertainty as they do now. They have been whipsawed by tariffs. Chinese carmakers are breathing down their necks around the world. Self-driving taxi companies like Waymo are changing the very nature of transportation. Software has replaced horsepower as a key selling point. Sales are flat almost everywhere, and profits are declining.

但行业资深人士表示，他们记忆中从未有过像现在这样的时候，大型车企面临如此巨大的不确定性。关税政策反复冲击；中国车企在全球范围内步步紧逼；Waymo等自动驾驶出租车公司正在改变交通的本质；软件已取代马力成为核心卖点；全球几乎所有地区销量都陷入停滞，利润不断下滑。

How U.S. carmakers cope with this pivotal moment will determine whether they survive as global players or slide into irrelevance, becoming niche manufacturers of pickups and sport utility vehicles that only Americans buy.

美国车企如何应对这一关键节点将决定它们是继续作为全球玩家生存下去，还是沦为无足轻重的小众厂商，生产只供美国人购买的皮卡和运动型多用途汽车。

The early indications are not promising. Many established U.S. and European carmakers have been stumped by electric vehicles at seemingly every turn. First, Tesla’s meteoric rise caught them unawares. They responded by investing in new factories but are now pulling back after the U.S. government repealed tax credits and other subsidies for those cars.

初步迹象并不乐观。许多老牌美国和欧洲车企在电动汽车领域似乎处处碰壁。先是特斯拉的迅速崛起令他们措手不及。它们随即投资建设新工厂，但在美国政府取消电动汽车税收抵免等补贴后，如今又开始收缩战线。

“The term ‘unprecedented’ is always overused. But it is really everything coming together at once,” said Stuart Taylor, a former Ford Motor executive who is chief product officer at Envorso, which advises carmakers on software.

“‘史无前例’这个词总是被滥用，但现在的情况确实是所有问题一起到来了，”曾任职于福特汽车、现任软件咨询公司Envorso首席产品官的斯图尔特·泰勒说。

U.S. carmakers, in particular, face some difficult choices.

美国汽车制造商尤其面临艰难抉择。

President Trump has given them a short-term gain by dismantling clean air regulations and fuel economy standards, making it easier to sell pickups and sport utility vehicles that are very profitable.

通过废除清洁空气法规和燃油经济性标准，特朗普总统为它们带来了短期利好，让利润丰厚的皮卡和运动型多功能车更容易销售。

Should they use that relief to please Wall Street and make as much money as possible? Or should they keep investing in new technologies?

它们应该利用这种宽松政策取悦华尔街、尽可能赚取利润，还是应该继续投资新技术？

Auto experts say old-line companies risk becoming obsolete if they don’t learn how to make appealing, profitable electric vehicles, which most executives expect to eventually replace cars that run on gasoline despite the Trump’s administration efforts to promote fossil fuels. Improvements in electric vehicle technology mean that, within a few years, they will be cheaper to buy and will charge in 15 minutes or less.

汽车行业专家表示，如果老牌车企不能学会打造有吸引力、能盈利的电动汽车，就有可能被淘汰。尽管特朗普政府大力推广化石燃料，但大多数高管预计，电动汽车最终将取代燃油车。电动汽车技术的进步意味着几年内购车成本将会更低，充电时间可缩短至15分钟以内。

One of the biggest problems established manufacturers have is that many of the electric models they sell have fared poorly against cars from Tesla and other newer companies.

老牌车企面临的最大问题之一是，它们推出的许多电动车型在市场竞争中屡屡败给特斯拉等新兴企业。

Tesla and Chinese carmakers like BYD have a substantial lead in battery technology and software. Established Western carmakers tend to lose money on electric vehicles and for the most part are also behind on self-driving cars. The Chinese have a head start there, too, as do Tesla and Waymo, a division of Google’s parent company that operates autonomous taxis in 10 U.S. cities and is expanding rapidly.

特斯拉以及比亚迪等中国车企在电池技术和软件方面拥有显著领先优势。传统西方车企在电动汽车领域大多处于亏损状态，并且在自动驾驶领域整体落后。中国企业在这个领域同样起步更早，特斯拉以及谷歌母公司旗下的Waymo也是如此——Waymo已在美国10座城市运营自动驾驶出租车，并正在快速扩张。

“It’s not impossible that in 10 years we wake up and see that we actually don’t have a domestic industry in the sense of something that does significant research and development,” said Susan Helper, a professor at Case Western Reserve University who was chief economist at the Commerce Department under President Barack Obama.

“10年后我们醒来时，可能会发现，国内已不存在一个能进行大规模研发的汽车产业，”凯斯西储大学教授、奥巴马政府时期商务部首席经济学家苏珊·赫尔珀说。

“Maybe Ford and G.M. exist as nameplates but the powertrains and their cars are all Chinese,” said Ms. Helper, who also advised President Joseph R. Biden Jr. on electric vehicles.

“也许福特和通用还作为品牌存在，但动力总成和整车都来自中国，”曾在拜登政府担任电动汽车政策顾问的赫尔珀表示。

得克萨斯州奥斯汀的一辆Waymo自动驾驶汽车，摄于去年。老牌美国汽车制造商在自动驾驶汽车领域远远落后。

The challenges facing automakers in the United States and Europe come after a tough year.

经历了去年一年的艰难后，美国和欧洲车企如今更是面临重重挑战。

Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the European-American company that owns Chrysler, Fiat, Jeep and Peugeot, reported multibillion-dollar losses at the end of 2025 as they delayed and canceled electric vehicle investments.

福特、通用汽车，以及拥有克莱斯勒、菲亚特、Jeep和标致品牌的欧美合资公司Stellantis推迟并取消了电动汽车投资，在2025年底均报告数十亿美元亏损。

Even automakers that made money last year, like the German luxury brand Mercedes-Benz, made a lot less of it. Among major automakers, only Toyota of Japan managed a significant increase in sales during 2025. Analysts expect industrywide sales to be flat again in 2026. (Ford did report a 1 percent increase in sales for the year.)

即使是德国豪华品牌梅赛德斯-奔驰等去年实现盈利的车企，利润也大幅缩水。在主要车企中，只有日本丰田在2025年实现销量显著增长。分析师预计，2026年全行业销量将再次持平。（福特报告全年销量增长为1%。）

Automakers say things are not as bad as they look. Many have cash reserves they built up during the pandemic, when shortages allowed them to raise car prices.

车企表示，实际情况并没有看上去那么糟糕。许多企业仍持有新冠疫情期间积累的现金储备，当时供应短缺使它们得以抬高车价。

G.M. felt confident enough in its finances to spend $6 billion last year to buy back its own shares, a way of returning money to investors. The company has earmarked a similar amount for 2026.

通用汽车对自身财务状况充满信心，去年斥资60亿美元回购股票，以此向投资者返还资金。该公司还为2026年划拨了同等规模的资金。

“The balance sheet of G.M. has probably never been stronger,” Paul Jacobson, the company’s chief financial officer, said last month at a conference on the automobile industry organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

“通用汽车的资产负债表可能从未如此强劲，”公司首席财务官保罗·雅各布森上月在芝加哥联邦储备银行举办的一场汽车行业会议上表示。

Ford also returned money to shareholders through dividends.

福特也通过分红向股东返还资金。

Such payouts generate good will on Wall Street and may help companies raise capital later, said John Paul MacDuffie, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. But he noted that the money could be better spent on new products and technology.

宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授约翰·保罗·麦克达菲表示，此类回报能在华尔街赢得好感，或许有助于企业后续融资。但他指出，这些资金如果用于新产品和技术研发将更具价值。

“I don’t know if I fully understand the strategic logic behind the stock buybacks,” Mr. MacDuffie said. He added that U.S. carmakers had advantages, including the ability to exploit innovations from Silicon Valley in ways that Chinese carmakers cannot.

“我不太确定我完全理解股票回购背后的战略逻辑，”麦克达菲说。他还称，美国车企仍具备优势，包括能够利用硅谷的创新成果，这是中国车企难以做到的。

Carmakers say they continue to invest in electric vehicles, batteries and self-driving cars, even if the pace has slowed. G.M. has a dozen electric models, including battery-powered versions of the Chevrolet Equinox, the Chevrolet Blazer and the Cadillac Escalade IQ.

车企称，尽管步伐放缓，但它们仍在继续投资电动汽车、电池和自动驾驶技术。通用汽车已推出十余款电动车型，包括雪佛兰探界者、雪佛兰开拓者以及凯迪拉克凯雷德IQ的纯电版本。

“We continue to believe in E.V.s,” Mary T. Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, said during a conference call in January. The company is investing in battery technology and ways to manufacture electric vehicles profitably, executives say. Last year, Ford discontinued the electric F-150 Lightning pickup, but is planning to begin selling a midsize electric pickup next year for around $30,000. The truck will be able to travel 300 miles between charges. Ford sequestered the design and engineering team in California to insulate it from corporate meddling.

 “我们仍然看好电动车，”通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·博拉今年1月在一次电话会议上表示。公司高管称，通用汽车正在投资电池技术，并探索如何实现电动汽车的盈利。去年，福特停止生产电动皮卡F-150 Lightning，但计划明年开始推出一款中型电动皮卡，售价在3万美元左右。这款车充一次电可行驶近500公里。福特还将该车型的设计和工程团队集中在加州，与公司其他部门隔离，以避免受到公司内部的干扰。

The pickup will address “the core of the market in our home market where there’s not a lot of competition,” Jim Farley, Ford’s chief executive, told investors and analysts last month. He added, “The real question that I ask myself is how will the Chinese change the game.”

福特首席执行官吉姆·法利上个月对投资者和分析师表示，这款皮卡将瞄准“我们本土市场的核心需求，而这个领域目前竞争并不激烈”。他还补充说：“我真正思考的问题是，中国企业将如何改变游戏规则。”

Ford executives say they have not dialed back investment in electric vehicles, just redirected the money to products that are more likely to make a profit. In the future, the company plans to offer a new version of the Lightning that will run on battery power but also have a gasoline motor that can charge the battery when needed.

福特高管表示，公司并没有减少对电动车的投资，只是把资金转向更有可能实现盈利的产品。未来，福特计划推出一款新的Lightning版本，它仍将使用电池驱动，但会配备一台汽油发动机，在需要时为电池充电。

In Europe, Ford plans to cut costs by producing electric vehicles using technology developed by the French carmaker Renault.

在欧洲，福特计划通过采用法国汽车制造商雷诺开发的技术来生产电动车，以降低成本。

Chinese companies like BYD, Geely and SAIC are effectively banned from the United States by tariffs. But they are taking market share from Ford in places like Asia, Australia and Europe. The Chinese probably can’t be kept out of U.S. showrooms forever. Mr. Trump has mused about letting them build factories in the United States.

由于关税的原因，比亚迪、吉利、上汽等中国车企实际上被挡在了美国市场之外。但它们正在亚洲、澳大利亚和欧洲等地抢占福特的市场份额。中国汽车或许不能永远被挡在美国市场之外。特朗普已在考虑让它们在美国建厂。

Carmakers from China are often accused of unfair competition because they receive government subsidies. But there’s more to it than that, analysts say.

中国汽车制造商经常被指责进行不公平竞争，因为它们获得了政府补贴。但分析人士表示，问题不止于此。

BYD sells vehicles in China for a lot less than Tesla, which also makes cars in that country, largely by doing things like making its own batteries and other components rather than buying them, according to the Rhodium Group, a research firm. Subsidies account for only a small portion of the difference in prices of BYD and Tesla cars.

研究公司荣鼎集团表示，由于自己做电池和其他零部件而非向外采购，比亚迪在中国国内的售价比同样在中国生产的特斯拉低得多。补贴在比亚迪和特斯拉价格差异中只占很小一部分。

The Chinese also move at astonishing speed — some companies from that country can develop new models in as little as 14 months, said Mark Wakefield, a managing director at the consulting firm AlixPartners who specializes in the auto industry.

中国企业的行动速度也令人惊讶。咨询公司艾睿铂负责汽车行业的董事总经理马克·韦克菲尔德表示，一些中国公司开发一款新车型最短只需14个月。

The Chinese companies make decisions more quickly, use virtual simulations for testing and are willing to take risks that Western automakers might not, Mr. Wakefield said.

韦克菲尔德说，中国企业做决策更快，利用虚拟仿真进行测试，并且愿意承担一些西方汽车制造商可能不愿意承担的风险。

U.S. automakers realize that they need to become faster and more innovative, he said. But it’s not clear whether they can overhaul their organizations quickly enough.

他说，美国汽车制造商已经意识到自己需要变得更快、更具创新性。但目前还不清楚他们能否以足够快的速度对组织结构进行彻底改革。

“Some of the senior executives have a significant sense of urgency,” Mr. Wakefield said. “It’s just tough to translate that into revolutionary change.”

韦克菲尔德表示：“一些高管确实有很强的紧迫感，但要把这种紧迫感转化为革命性的改变，却非常困难。”