The husband of a British lawmaker was one of three men arrested on Wednesday by the British police on suspicion of spying for China, deepening concerns about the possible extent of Chinese espionage in Western nations.

三名涉嫌为中国从事间谍活动的男子于周三被英国警方逮捕，其中包括一名英国议员的丈夫，这加剧了外界对中国在西方国家间谍活动可能范围的担忧。

A statement from the Metropolitan Police in London said that three men had been taken into custody on suspicion of “assisting a foreign intelligence service, contrary to Section 3 of the National Security Act.” The release confirmed that the country in question was China.

伦敦警察厅发表声明称，三男子因涉嫌“协助外国情报机构，违反《国家安全法》第三条”而被拘留。声明证实所涉国家为中国。

The statement did not name the men, in keeping with British police practice. But later on Wednesday, Joani Reid, a Labour Party lawmaker, issued a statement referencing a police investigation into her husband, David Taylor, which said that she had “never seen anything to make me suspect my husband has broken any law.”

按照英国警方惯例，声明未透露三名男子的姓名。但周三晚些时候，工党议员乔安妮·里德发表声明提及针对其丈夫戴维·泰勒的警方调查，称自己“从未发现任何迹象让我怀疑丈夫触犯了任何法律”。

Chinese spying has been a sensitive topic in Britain recently, following various accusations that Beijing has engaged in extensive information gathering. At the same time, the Labour government has been trying to improve its economic ties with China after years of frosty relations, and in January approved a contentious Chinese “mega-embassy” in the heart of London.

近期，中国间谍活动在英国成为敏感话题，此前有多起指控称北京进行了大规模情报搜集。与此同时，经历两国关系数年冷淡后，工党正努力改善与中国的经济联系，并于1月批准了颇具争议的中国“超级大使馆”在伦敦市中心落地。

Ms. Reid, who represents East Kilbride and Strathaven in Scotland, said that she had never visited China, had not spoken on matters related to it in Parliament or “as far as I am aware,” met Chinese businesses, diplomats or government employees.

代表苏格兰东基尔布赖德和斯特拉思文选区的里德表示，她从未访问过中国，未在议会就相关议题发言，且“据我所知”，也未曾与中国企业、外交官或政府雇员会面。

“I am not part of my husband’s business activities and neither I nor my children are part of this investigation,” she said in her statement to Britain’s P.A. news agency.

“我不参与丈夫的商业活动，我和我的孩子们都不在此次调查范围内，”她在向英国PA通讯社发送的声明中说。

China’s embassy in London did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

中国驻伦敦大使馆未立即回应置评请求。

周三因涉嫌为中国从事间谍活动而被捕的三人之一是执政党工党议员乔安妮·里德的丈夫。

Mr. Taylor has been registered as a lobbyist since August 2024, according to Ms. Reid’s parliamentary declaration of interests, for his role as director of Earthcott, a public relations, communications and consultancy firm in London.

根据里德的议会利益申报，泰勒自2024年8月起以伦敦公关、传播与咨询公司Earthcott董事身份，注册为游说人士。

Mr. Taylor is also the head of programs at Asia House, a research institute in London that focuses on dialogue among Asia, the Middle East and Europe. He was appointed to the role in September 2024. His profile on the institute’s website states that he is “passionate about advancing Asia House’s mission of providing insights and facilitating engagement between Asia and the rest of the world.”

泰勒还担任伦敦研究机构亚洲之家的项目主管，该机构专注于亚洲、中东与欧洲之间的对话。他于2024年9月获任此职。该机构网站上的个人简介称，他“致力于推动亚洲之家的使命，即提供深入观点并促进亚洲与世界其他地区的交流”。

Mr. Taylor, who has not been charged, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In a statement, Asia House said it could not comment on an active police investigation and had no further information beyond what had been made public.

泰勒尚未被起诉，也未立即回应置评请求。亚洲之家发表声明称，无法就正在进行的警方调查置评，除已公开信息外无法提供更多细节。

The arrests on Wednesday intensified the political debate over China’s activities, with some opposition lawmakers accusing the government of failing to stand up to Beijing.

周三的逮捕事件加剧了关于中国活动的政治辩论，部分反对党议员指责政府未能对北京采取强硬立场。

Last year, prosecutors in England were preparing a case against two men accused of funneling sensitive information to officials in Beijing. But the case fell apart after prosecutors concluded that, at the time of the alleged spying, the government had not deemed China an enemy or a threat to national security. The men, who denied the charges, were acquitted.

去年，英格兰检察官曾准备对两名涉嫌向北京官员泄露敏感信息的男子提起诉讼。但检方认定，在所称的间谍行为发生时，政府尚未将中国列为敌对国家或国家安全威胁，该案随之被撤销。两名否认指控的男子最终被无罪释放。

The collapse of that case became a political headache for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who was repeatedly pressed by opposition leaders in Parliament on why the prosecution did not proceed.

该案被撤成为斯塔默首相的政治难题，反对党领袖在议会中多次质问他检方为何终止起诉。

Earlier this year, Mr. Starmer became the first British prime minister since 2018 to visit Beijing, where he met with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping. The British delegation included a group of business leaders, and the government claimed it had secured billions of pounds worth of export and investment deals.

今年早些时候，斯塔默成为自2018年以来首位访问北京的英国首相，期间与中国国家主席习近平会晤。英国代表团包括一批商界领袖，政府称已达成价值数十亿英镑的出口与投资协议。

The visit followed the hotly contested decision by the British government to give the go-ahead for a new Chinese embassy on a 5.5-acre site in the heart of London. In doing so, the government rejected the objections of critics who said the location and scale of the building would make it easier for China to spy in Britain.

此次访问前，英国政府做出备受争议的决定，批准在伦敦市中心一块占地约2.23公顷的土地上新建中国大使馆。政府此举驳回了批评者的反对意见，后者称该建筑的位置与规模将使中国更易在英国从事间谍活动。

今年早些时候，斯塔默成为2018年以来首位访问北京的英国首相，访华期间他与中国国家主席习近平会面。

Speaking in Parliament on Wednesday, Dan Jarvis, a security minister, said the arrests related to an investigation into “foreign interference targeting U.K. democracy” and added that the government was “deeply concerned by an increasing pattern of covert activity from Chinese state-linked actors.”

安全大臣丹·贾维斯周三在议会发言时表示，此次逮捕与调查“针对英国民主的外国干涉”有关，并称，政府“对与中国国家相关行为体日益增多的秘密活动模式深感担忧”。

He said, “This involves attempts to obtain information on U.K. policymaking and interfere with our sovereign affairs.”

他说：“这包括试图获取英国政策制定信息，以及干涉我国主权事务的企图。”

In reply, Alex Burghart, a senior lawmaker for the opposition Conservative Party, asked for clarification of news reports “that one of those arrested is the spouse of a sitting Labour MP and that another is the spouse of a former Labour MP,” using an abbreviation for a member of Parliament. The identities of the other two men arrested have not been confirmed, nor has the report that one of them was married to a former Labour lawmaker.

反对党保守党资深议员亚历克斯·伯格哈特回应时，要求澄清新闻报道中“被捕者之一是现任工党议员配偶，另一人是前任工党议员配偶”的说法。另外两名被捕男子的身份尚未确认，关于其中一人为前工党议员配偶的报道也未得到证实。

The police statement described the three men as a 39-year-old arrested in London, a 68-year-old arrested in Powys, Wales, and a 43-year-old arrested in Pontyclun, Wales.

警方声明称，三名被捕男子分别为：在伦敦被捕的39岁男子、在威尔士波伊斯郡被捕的68岁男子，以及在威尔士庞蒂克伦被捕的43岁男子。

The police did not offer any details on what led to the arrests or the possible impact of any national security information that had been revealed. But the authorities described the arrests as serious.

警方未透露逮捕行动的具体缘由，也未说明已泄露的国家安全信息可能造成的危害，但当局称此次逮捕事件性质严重。

“Today’s arrests are part of a proactive investigation, and while these are serious matters, we do not believe there to be any imminent or direct threat to the public relating to this,” said Helen Flanagan, the London head of operations for Counter Terrorism Policing, which is leading the investigation.

“今日的逮捕是一项主动调查的一部分，尽管事态严重，但我们认为此事不会对公众造成紧迫或直接的威胁，”主导此次调查的反恐警务部门伦敦行动负责人海伦·弗拉纳根表示。

Every March, China’s leaders gather in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People to announce how much the world’s second-largest economy is expected to grow that year.

每年3月，中国领导人都会齐聚北京的人民大会堂，宣布全球第二大经济体当年的预期增长目标。

It doesn’t change much from year to year.

这一目标每年变化不大。

On Thursday, the target for 2026 was set at between 4.5 percent and 5 percent. It was the first time in more than three decades that the benchmark was placed below the 5 percent mark, an acknowledgment that China is on a slower growth path.

周四，2026年的增长目标被设定在4.5%至5%之间。这是30多年来该基准首次低于5%的门槛，表明中国已进入增速放缓轨道。

The announcement came at the start of the National People’s Congress, the meeting of China’s Communist Party controlled legislature, when leaders unveil the government’s main economic and policy priorities for the year.

该目标在全国人民代表大会开幕时宣布——在这一由中国共产党领导的立法机构会议上，领导人将公布政府全年主要经济与政策重点。

Speculation over whether the target would be below 5 percent, where it has been for the past three years, was a parlor game among China watchers.

过去三年，增长目标一直维持在5%，对于今年该目标是否会跌破5%的猜测，已成为中国问题观察人士的热门话题。

The unveiling of the growth target is followed closely by financial markets because it lays out the expectations of the country’s officials, including the China’s leader, Xi Jinping. In a political system heavily directed from top levels, the number can offer clues about plans for economic policymaking.

该增长目标的公布备受金融市场关注，因为它体现了包括国家主席习近平在内的中国官方预期。在高度自上而下的中国政治体制中，这一数字能为经济政策计划提供线索。

In recent years, China has endured downward pressures in its domestic economy, such as chronic price deflation, high youth unemployment and lagging consumer confidence. A trade war with President Trump, currently in an uneasy truce, has caused China to redirect its considerable exports, pressuring businesses and causing factories to scramble for new markets.

近年来，中国国内经济持续承受下行压力，面临长期通缩、青年失业率高企、消费信心疲软等问题。与特朗普政府的贸易战虽目前处于不稳定的休战状态，仍迫使中国调整庞大出口结构，给企业带来压力，迫使工厂纷纷寻找新市场。

But those exports, which produced a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025, remain a powerful economic driver. The government reported in January that growth last year was 5 percent, exactly the same as the previous year.

不过，出口仍是强劲的经济引擎——2025年，中国实现1.19万亿美元的创纪录贸易顺差。今年1月，政府公布去年经济增长为5%，与前年完全持平。

中国经济实力的很大一部分源于制造业，建造了庞大的电动汽车工厂、工业园区和数据中心。

Not everyone accepts the official numbers at face value. Some experts say that the economy’s actual growth may be half of what official statistics indicate. Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm specializing in China, estimated that the Chinese economy grew less than 3 percent last year.

并非所有人都会采信官方数据。部分专家认为，中国经济实际增速可能仅为官方数据的一半。纽约专注中国研究的荣鼎集团估算，去年中国经济增速不足3%。

In recent months, many of China’s provinces and major cities released their own 2026 growth targets that were lower than those for last year. That fueled speculation from economists that the national target might fall below 5 percent this year for the first time since 1991, according to an analysis by Macquarie Group, an investment bank. (Officials did not release a growth target in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic.)

近几个月，中国多个省份及主要城市公布的2026年增长目标均低于去年。投行麦格理集团分析指出，这引发经济学家猜测，中国的全国目标今年可能自1991年以来首次跌破5%（2020年因新冠疫情，官方未公布增长目标）。

For years after the country opened up to foreign investors and businesses, China grew rapidly. As it has expanded, becoming now the world’s second largest economy, the growth has slowed as it became harder to be more productive.

自对外开放吸引外资以来，中国经济多年保持高速增长。随着经济体量扩大、成为全球第二大经济体，提升生产率的难度增加，增长速度逐步放缓。

“The more you have caught up in terms of productivity, the less straightforward it is to keep powering ahead,” said Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at S&P Global Ratings.

标普全球评级亚太区首席经济学家路易斯·奎伊斯表示：“生产率提升得越充分，高增速实现起来就越复杂。”

Much of China’s economic strength comes from manufacturing. The country has built vast industrial parks, electric-vehicle plants and data centers, often financed by cheap loans from its state-owned banks. China’s factories produce much of the world’s electric vehicles, solar panels and lithium batteries. Last year, the Chinese carmaker BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest electric vehicle producer.

中国经济的强劲很大程度上源于制造业。国家建设了庞大的工业园区、电动汽车工厂与数据中心，资金多来自国有银行的低成本贷款。中国工厂生产了全球大部分电动汽车、太阳能板与锂电池。去年，中国车企比亚迪超越特斯拉，成为全球最大电动汽车生产商。

But relying too much on manufacturing has created problems for Beijing. Excess factory capacity and fierce competition have driven down prices in a cycle known as “involution,” crushing profit margins across industries. Companies produce more, but earn less.

但过度依赖制造业也给北京带来问题。产能过剩、激烈竞争导致价格持续下跌，形成“内卷”循环，全行业利润率被挤压——企业生产更多，却赚得更少。

Improving the economic outlook requires stronger domestic spending along with a shift toward what the government calls “high-quality growth” in advanced sectors like artificial intelligence.

改善经济前景需要提振国内消费，并向人工智能等高端领域转型，实现政府所称的“高质量发展”。

Economists and outside organizations like the International Monetary Fund have long argued that China should adopt policies to encourage more consumer spending.

经济学家及国际货币基金组织等外部机构长期以来一直主张，中国应出台政策鼓励更多消费。

Those calls grew louder in the past few years after a severe slump in the housing market ate into household wealth, and stagnant wage growth left consumers even more wary of spending. The lack of a robust social safety net also feeds into the heavy savings rate in China as households worry about how they will cover future medical bills and expenses in retirement.

过去几年，房地产市场严重下滑侵蚀家庭财富，工资增长停滞让消费者更加不愿花钱，呼吁提振消费的声音愈发强烈。中国社会保障体系不够完善，也推高了居民储蓄率——家庭担心未来医疗与养老支出。

Boosting consumption, according to Mr. Kuijs, requires structural changes, including expanding access to public services such as education and health care, particularly for migrant workers in cities.

奎伊斯认为，提振消费需要结构性改革，包括扩大教育、医疗等公共服务覆盖面，尤其是面向城市农民工群体。

To jump-start that spending, the government has tried offering subsidies for consumer goods, including rebates on appliances and electric vehicles. Officials have also raised pensions and introduced child care subsidies to ease the financial burden on families.

为刺激消费，政府已尝试推出消费品补贴，包括家电与电动汽车的折扣。官员还提高了养老金，并推出育儿补贴以减轻家庭经济负担。

Those measures, however, have not been enough to make a significant difference and don’t solve the underlying issues. Wage growth has lagged across much of the economy, limiting how much households can spend, said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. Without stronger income growth, policies to boost spending are unlikely to have much effect.

但法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗表示，这些措施效果有限，未能解决根本问题。大部分经济领域工资增长乏力，限制了家庭消费能力。没有更强的收入增长，刺激消费的政策难有实效。

“How can you consume if you don’t earn any money?” she said.

“不赚钱，怎么消费？”她问道。

In public, Iran’s surviving leaders have defiantly refused to negotiate with President Trump to end the American and Israeli assault on their country. But a day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, according to officials briefed on the outreach.

在公开场合，伊朗幸存的领导人仍强硬拒绝与特朗普总统谈判，以结束美国和以色列对其国家的攻击。但据知情官员透露，袭击开始一天后，伊朗情报部的特工通过间接渠道联系了美国中央情报局，表示愿意商讨结束冲突的条件。

U.S. officials are skeptical — at least in the short term — that either the Trump administration or Iran is really ready for an offramp, the officials briefed on the outreach said.

知情官员称，美国官员怀疑，至少短期内，无论是特朗普政府还是伊朗，都尚未真正准备好找到一个结束冲突的出口。

Still, the offer, which was made through another country’s spy agency, raises critical questions about whether any Iranian officials could put into place a cease-fire agreement with the Tehran government in chaos as its leaders are methodically picked off by Israeli strikes.

尽管如此，这项通过他国情报机构传递的提议还是引发了关键疑问：在以色列定点清除行动令德黑兰政府陷入混乱之际，伊朗是否还有官员能真正落实停火协议。

The offer was described on the condition of anonymity to The New York Times by Middle Eastern officials and officials from a Western country.

中东国家官员及某西方国家官员在不具名条件下向《纽约时报》描述了这一提议。

White House and Iranian officials did not respond to requests for comment. The C.I.A. declined to comment.

白宫与伊朗官员未回应置评请求。中央情报局拒绝就本文发表评论。

Israeli officials, who want a weekslong campaign to inflict maximum damage on Iran’s military capabilities, and perhaps cause Iran’s government to collapse, have urged the United States to ignore the approach. For now, the offer is not considered serious in Washington.

以色列官员希望开展一场持续数周的行动，对伊朗的军事能力造成最大程度的破坏，甚至促使伊朗政府垮台，他们敦促美国无视这一接触。就目前而言，华盛顿方面并不认为该提议具有严肃性。

And after saying for days that he was open to discussing a deal with Iran, Mr. Trump posted on social media on Tuesday morning that it was now “too late” for talks.

在连续数日表示对与伊朗达成协议持开放态度后，特朗普总统周二早上在社交媒体上发帖称，现在进行谈判已经“太晚了”。

Speaking with reporters later in the day, Mr. Trump lamented that the Iranian officials the United States knew and had considered as potential leaders were being killed.

当天晚些时候，特朗普在与记者交谈时感叹，那些美国熟知并曾视为潜在领导人的伊朗官员正在被逐一清除。

“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Mr. Trump said. “Pretty soon we are not going to know anybody.”

“我们原本考虑的人，大多数已经死了，”特朗普说。“很快我们就一个都不认识了。”

The Iranian outreach, and the chaos in Iran’s leadership ranks as the assault continues, highlights the key issue Mr. Trump faces as he decides what sort of Iranian government he might hope to shape, or at least settle for. He already seems to have stopped promoting his initial scenario of a popular uprising against the government yielding a new set of leaders and instead seems to view the best outcome as more pragmatic figures emerging atop the existing political structure.

随着袭击持续，伊朗方面的接触意图及其领导层内部的混乱，凸显出特朗普在决定希望塑造（或至少接受）何种伊朗政府时所面临的关键问题。他似乎已不再鼓吹最初的设想——通过民众起义推翻政府以产生一批新的领导人，而是将务实派人物在现有政治架构中掌权视为最佳结果。

At a minimum, Trump officials will expect any agreement to stop the bombing to include a pledge from Tehran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, and its support for foreign proxy groups like Hezbollah. In return, Mr. Trump has suggested that he would allow Iran’s surviving leaders to maintain their economic and political power.

至少，特朗普政府预计，任何停止轰炸的协议都必须包括德黑兰方面的承诺：放弃或大幅削减弹道导弹和核项目，以及停止对真主党这样的海外代理组织的支持。作为交换，特朗普暗示，他可能会允许伊朗现存的领导人维持经济和政治权力。

Mr. Trump suggested again on Tuesday that his model would be Venezuela after the U.S. capture in January of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Under threat of additional force, Mr. Trump has compelled Mr. Maduro’s successor to grant the United States control over Venezuela’s oil exports while making few demands for political reform.

特朗普周二再次表示，他的一个参考模式是委内瑞拉——今年1月，美国在一次行动中抓获了该国领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗。此后，在进一步武力威胁下，特朗普迫使马杜罗的继任者同意让美国控制委内瑞拉的石油出口，而几乎没有提出政治改革的要求。

“What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect scenario,” Mr. Trump said in a Sunday interview with The New York Times. “Leaders can be picked.”

“我们在委内瑞拉的做法，我认为是完美的范本，”特朗普在周日接受《纽约时报》采访时表示。“领导人是可以挑选的。”

But that vision could be a mirage.

但这种愿景或许只是海市蜃楼。

First, it is not clear that Iran is actually open to a deal, despite the recent outreach from its intelligence arm. Some Iranian leaders may believe they can inflict enough physical, economic and political pain on the United States and Israel to force an end to their assault. Mr. Trump already faces growing political pressure from Republican allies unhappy about the operation.

首先，尽管伊朗情报机构最近进行了接触，但并不清楚伊朗是否真的愿意达成协议。一些伊朗领导人可能认为，他们能够给美国和以色列造成足够拳拳到肉的、经济和政治上的痛苦，从而迫使两国停止对伊朗的攻击。特朗普已经面临来自共和党盟友越来越大的政治压力，他们对此次行动感到不满。

Mr. Trump’s shifting statements on Iranian leadership might reflect tension with Israel about the war’s goals, said Steven A. Cook, a Middle East expert with the Council on Foreign Relations.

美国外交关系委员会的中东问题专家史蒂文·库克表示，特朗普关于伊朗领导层的不断变化的表态，可能反映出他与以色列在战争目标上的分歧。

特朗普总统周二早上在社交媒体上发帖称，现在与伊朗进行谈判已经“太晚了”。

Israel, Mr. Cook said in a briefing on Monday for reporters, does not want to see Mr. Trump engineer a “Venezuela-like solution to change in Iran,” possibly with a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The elite military force controls much of Iran’s economy. Some analysts and U.S. officials believe its ranks might include pragmatists less invested in their regime’s fundamentalist principles than in preserving their power and wealth.

库克在周一给记者们的情况介绍会上表示，以色列不希望看到特朗普策划一场“委内瑞拉式的伊朗政权更迭方案”，例如由伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队中的某个成员来接管权力。这支精锐军事力量控制着伊朗经济的大部分。一些分析师和美国官员认为，在革命卫队内部，可能存在一些更务实的人物，他们对维持政权的意识形态原则兴趣不大，而更关心保住自己的权力和财富。

On Tuesday, Israel struck a compound where senior Iranian clerics were meeting to choose a successor to their supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike on Saturday.

周二，以色列袭击了一处设施，当时伊朗高级神职人员正在该处开会，挑选上周六在空袭中丧生的最高领袖哈梅内伊的继任者。

Ahead of the strikes on Iran, the C.I.A. produced an intelligence assessment examining various scenarios of what sort of Iranian leadership might emerge after a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. People briefed on the various scenarios produced by the agency note that none had a high degree of confidence — there were simply too many unknown variables to predict how it would play out.

在对伊朗发动袭击之前，中情局曾做出一份情报评估，分析美以打击后伊朗可能出现什么样的领导层。据知情人士透露，在这份评估设想的各种情况中，没有一种情况具有很高的确定性——因为存在太多未知变量，无法预测局势将如何发展。

But policymakers who have reviewed the intelligence have made their own conclusions about the most likely scenarios. Some have been dismissive of the idea that the Iranian opposition would find a way to seize power. They have been more focused on the prospect that a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guard members might emerge as the most influential voice in the government.

不过，审阅过这些情报的政策制定者也得出了他们自己的判断。一些人并不认同伊朗反对派能找到机会夺权的看法。他们更关注另一种可能性：一批伊斯兰革命卫队成员可能成为政府中最有影响力的力量。

The question for the Trump administration now is whether any of those officials will emerge alive from the repeated attacks on the government.

对特朗普政府来说，现在的问题是，在针对政府的连续打击中，这些官员是否还能有人活下来。

Mr. Trump has made several contradictory statements about his war aims, so it is possible that he will change his mind after ruling out negotiations.

特朗普对这场战争的目标发表了若干相互矛盾的表态，因此，在排除谈判选项之后，他仍然有可能改变主意。

But even if he renews his search for an Iranian leader, as the government weakens, it could be harder to find a person with enough influence to compel the country to abide by a deal with the United States.

但即使他重新开始寻找可以接手的伊朗领导人，随着政府力量不断削弱，要找到一个具有足够影响力、能够迫使该国遵守与美国达成协议的人，可能会变得更加困难。

Many analysts warn that Iran’s government could soon lose control over remote regions dominated by ethnic minorities like the Kurds or collapse entirely, leading to chaos and violence reminiscent of the civil wars in Syria and Libya.

许多分析人士警告说，伊朗政府可能很快就会失去对库尔德人等少数民族聚居的偏远地区的控制，或者彻底垮台，从而引发让人想起叙利亚和利比亚内战的混乱和暴力。

Iranians could overthrow their weakened government. Experts say that the regime is deeply unpopular and has retained power only through the brutal repression of popular uprisings. Mr. Trump’s talk of regime change came after a vicious crackdown in January.

伊朗民众也可能推翻这个已被削弱的政府。专家表示，该政权极不受欢迎，它依靠对民众起义进行残酷镇压才得以维持统治。今年1月伊朗发生严厉镇压后，特朗普开始谈论政权更迭。

But there is no guarantee that Mr. Trump would welcome the outcome of a popular revolution, analysts warn.

但分析人士警告，即便发生民众革命，也不能保证其结果会受到特朗普的欢迎。

“There’s a low likelihood that a successor state would be a liberal democracy friendly to the United States — given that it was forged in a war with the United States,” said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a group generally opposed to U.S. foreign interventions.

“继任政权不太可能成为一个对美国友好的自由民主国家——毕竟它是在与美国的战争中诞生的，”智库Defense Priorities的中东项目主任罗斯玛丽·凯拉尼克说。该智库总体上是反对美国对外干预的。

Mr. Trump and his top advisers say it is impossible to do business with Iran’s current leaders given their religiously based radicalism and avowed hatred of the West. They argue that Iran’s refusal to accept Mr. Trump’s demands during last month’s nuclear negotiations, at what amounted to gunpoint, demonstrated its leaders’ fanaticism.

特朗普及其高级顾问表示，鉴于伊朗现任领导人基于宗教的激进主义和对西方的公开仇恨，与他们打交道是不可能的。他们认为，在上个月的核谈判中，伊朗几乎是在枪口之下拒绝了特朗普的要求，这证明了其领导人具有狂热的意识形态。

On Monday, Mr. Trump called Iran’s leaders “radical lunatics,” adding: “They’re sick people. They’re mentally ill. Sick people. They are angry. They are crazy. They are sick.”

周一，特朗普称伊朗领导人是“激进的疯子”，还说：“他们是病人。他们有精神问题。他们是病人。他们很愤怒。他们是疯子。他们有病。”

If Iran’s government survives, the question may be whether Mr. Trump can find a “more moderate” interlocutor, as he put it on Tuesday. That would mean someone senior enough in the current government to command authority, but not too invested in its revolutionary ideology.

如果伊朗政府幸存下来，问题可能是特朗普是否能够找到一位“更温和”的对话对象——正如他周二所说的那样。那意味着要在现任政府中找一个级别足够高、足以发号施令，但又不能太过深陷于革命意识形态之中的人。

When the A.I. video generation tool Seedance 2.0 debuted recently, with the ability to create impressively realistic clips of just about anything a user could imagine, it prompted two drastically different reactions on opposite sides of the world.

最近发布的人工智能视频生成工具Seedance 2.0能够根据用户的想象创造出令人惊艳的逼真视频片段，它在地球两端引发了两种截然不同的反应。

In the United States, many in the movie industry responded with fear. After a Seedance-generated video purporting to show a fight scene between Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise spread widely online, Hollywood filmmakers and writers said their jobs were fast becoming obsolete.

在美国，电影行业的许多人对此感到恐惧。一段据称是布拉德·皮特和汤姆·克鲁斯打斗场面的Seedance生成视频在网上广泛传播后，好莱坞的电影制作人和编剧们表示，他们的工作正迅速变得过时。

But in China, many reacted with pride and excitement. Stocks in short-video companies surged. One of China’s most famous directors, Jia Zhangke, shared a short film that he made using Seedance, in which his real self and an A.I. version discussed moviemaking.

但在中国，许多人的反应是自豪和兴奋。短视频公司的股票大涨。中国最著名的导演之一贾樟柯分享了他使用Seedance制作的短片，片中真实的自己与一个人工智能版本的自己讨论电影创作。

“I’m not worried about technology replacing movies. From the very beginning, movies have coexisted with new technology,” Mr. Jia wrote on social media. “What really matters is how people use technology.”

“我并不担心技术会不会‘取代’电影。电影从诞生之初，就一直在和新技术共处，”贾樟柯在社交媒体上写道。“真正重要的，还是人如何使用技术。”

The contrasting reactions point to a broader split between China and much of the West on A.I.: Chinese people appear to be much more optimistic about it.

这种截然不同的反应揭示了中国与西方大部分国家在人工智能问题上更广泛的分歧：中国人似乎对人工智能更加乐观。

People in China are among the most excited in the world about A.I., according to a KPMG survey of 47 countries last year. While 69 percent of people in China said the technology’s benefits outweighed its risks, only 35 percent of Americans agreed. Other polls have shown similar disparities.

毕马威咨询去年对47个国家进行的一项调查显示，中国人是对人工智能最兴奋的人群之一。在中国，69%的受访者认为该技术的好处大于风险，而持同样看法的美国人只有35%。其他民调也显示出类似的差距。

The question is, why?

问题是，为什么会这样？

The answer may be related to how the technology has been deployed in each country, as well as how the government and industry leaders have talked about it.

答案可能与这项技术在各国的应用方式有关，也与政府和行业领袖如何谈论它有关。

In China, A.I. Is Seemingly Everywhere

在中国，人工智能似乎无处不在

Driverless taxis roam more than a dozen Chinese cities, and service robots putter through hotels and restaurants. Chinese tech companies have rolled out medical chatbots to help users avoid long lines at hospitals. They’ve embedded A.I. assistants throughout popular apps, so users can ask A.I. in their mapping apps to help them decide where to eat, or in their shopping apps to help them choose between pairs of shoes.

无人驾驶出租车在中国十多个城市穿行，服务机器人在酒店和餐馆里缓缓穿行。中国科技公司推出了医疗聊天机器人，帮助用户避免在医院排长队。他们还把人工智能助手嵌入各种热门应用中：用户可以在地图应用里询问人工智能该去哪里吃饭，也可以在购物应用中让人工智能帮忙在两双鞋之间做出选择。

在中国中部城市芜湖，警方使用机器人协助交通监测。在中国，人工智能似乎无处不在。

That’s because Chinese tech companies have focused intensely on real-world applications for A.I. By contrast, many leading American tech companies have been focused on more abstract goals, like developing the most cutting-edge model, or achieving artificial general intelligence.

这是因为中国科技公司高度专注于人工智能的实际应用。相比之下，许多领先的美国科技公司一直专注于更抽象的目标，比如开发最前沿的模型，或实现通用人工智能。

In addition, most of China’s leading A.I. models are free to use, unlike in the United States, where users have to pay for chatbots like ChatGPT to access all their features. (In fact, Chinese companies have been giving away money and luxury cars to entice people to download their apps.)

此外，中国大多数领先的人工智能模型都是免费的，不像在美国，用户必须为ChatGPT等聊天机器人付费才能使用全部功能。（事实上，一些中国公司甚至通过赠送现金和豪车来吸引用户下载他们的应用程序。）

As a result, Chinese consumers are feeling the benefits of A.I., said Bai Guo, a professor who studies the digital economy at China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.

因此，中国消费者已经开始感受到人工智能带来的好处，上海的中欧国际工商学院研究数字经济的白果教授说。

“A lot of things can already be helped by A.I., and people find that interesting, that’s useful, and so there are quite a lot of positive and active feelings toward it,” Professor Bai said. Potential dangers, such as unemployment or increased inequality, still feel remote.

“很多事情已经可以由人工智能来帮助完成，人们觉得这很有意思，也很有用，所以对它抱有相当多积极、主动的情绪，”白教授说。至于潜在的风险，比如失业或不平等加剧，目前仍然让人感觉比较遥远。

Beijing Has Been a Big Champion

中国政府一直是人工智能的积极推动者

The focus on A.I. applications is a product of China’s hypercompetitive internet economy. Leading companies like Alibaba, ByteDance and the food delivery giant Meituan are locked in a perpetual battle for users, and A.I. is the latest tool.

对人工智能应用的关注是中国高度竞争的互联网经济的产物。阿里巴巴、字节跳动和外卖巨头美团等领先企业陷入了一场争夺用户的持久战，而人工智能是最新的竞争工具。

The Chinese government has also encouraged this approach. Xi Jinping has said that China’s A.I. industry should “prioritize practical application.” Officials say that A.I. could help solve China’s thorniest problems, such as inequalities in health care, or an aging work force.

中国政府也鼓励这种做法。习近平曾表示，中国的人工智能产业应“全面推进赋能应用”。官员们表示，人工智能可以帮助解决中国一些最棘手的问题，如医疗资源不均衡，或劳动力老龄化。

阿里巴巴集团在杭州的总部。阿里巴巴开发了广泛使用的开源人工智能系统。

In August, the government laid out a plan, called A.I.+, for A.I. to penetrate more than 70 percent of Chinese society by 2027, and 90 percent by 2030. The plan said A.I. will “promote a revolutionary leap in productive ability” and “create higher-quality, beautiful lives.”

去年8月，政府提出了一项名为“人工智能+”的计划，目标是到2027年让人工智能应用普及率达到70%以上，到2030年达到90%。该计划称，人工智能将“推动生产力整体跃升”，并“打造更有品质的美好生活”。

Because Chinese officials are promoting A.I. as an economic engine, they may also be silencing those who are more pessimistic about it. Crashes involving autonomous driving have attracted widespread attention online, only for posts to be censored. State media outlets have compared concerns about job loss for taxi drivers to the Luddite movement.

由于中国官员将人工智能作为经济引擎来推广，他们可能也在压制那些对此更为悲观的声音。与自动驾驶有关的事故在网上曾引发广泛关注，但相关帖子随后遭删除。官方媒体还把出租车司机对失业的担忧与历史上的卢德运动相提并论。

China also does not permit independent labor unions, which have been some of the most vocal critics of A.I. in the West.

中国也不允许独立的工会存在，而在西方，工会一直是人工智能最直言不讳的批评者之一。

The signaling by the state that A.I. is strictly managed has, for some Chinese, bolstered their confidence in the technology. In interviews, some parents have said that they are comfortable letting their children use A.I. toys or educational tools because they believe the government would not permit the models to produce anything harmful.

国家不断释放出人工智能受到严格管理的信号，这也在一定程度上增强了一些中国人对这项技术的信心。在采访中，一些家长表示，他们愿意让孩子使用人工智能玩具或教育工具，因为他们相信政府不会允许这些模型产生任何有害内容。

National Pride and Faith in Technology

民族自豪感与对技术的信念

Many Chinese scholars, investors and entrepreneurs cited a more abstract reason for the optimism: Simply put, China has modernized so quickly in recent decades that many Chinese are used to groundbreaking change. And technology has been key to that change.

许多中国学者、投资者和企业家提出了一个更为抽象的原因来解释这种乐观情绪：简单来说，中国在过去几十年里现代化速度极快，许多中国人已经习惯了颠覆性的变革。而技术一直是这种变革的关键。

去年在武汉的一次演示中，对一辆无人驾驶电动小巴进行监控。

Afra Wang, a technology writer from China, wrote in a recent newsletter about her grandmother, who once walked five hours to buy a clock so that her children could get to school on time. “Today her Xiaomi phone has given her an online shopping addiction, and delivery drones fly above her apartment,” Ms. Wang wrote. “A.I. simply looks like the next turn of a wheel that has only ever spun forward.”

中国科技作者阿芙拉·王（音）最近在一篇通讯中写到了她的祖母。当年祖母曾经为了买闹钟走了五个小时路，就为了让孩子们能够按时上学。“而今天，她的小米手机让她沉迷于网购，送货无人机在她的公寓上空飞行，”王女士写道。“人工智能看起来不过是那只一直向前滚动的车轮的下一次转动。”

For many Chinese, their country’s ability to compete with the United States on A.I. is a source of great pride, further proof of how far China has come. After Seedance 2.0 was released, the hashtag “Seedance 2.0 has been praised to the skies overseas” was a top trend on Chinese social media.

对许多中国人来说，中国能够在人工智能领域与美国竞争是一种巨大的自豪感，也是中国取得巨大进步的又一证明。Seedance 2.0发布后，“Seedance 2.0在海外出圈”的话题在中国社交媒体上迅速登上热搜。

“Technology still firmly occupies a particular place in the Chinese imagination: It is still seen as a channel for upward mobility,” Ms. Wang wrote.

“在当代中国人的想象中，技术仍然牢固地占据着一个特殊的位置：它仍被视为向上流动的渠道，”王女士写道。

Concerns About A.I. Are Growing

对人工智能的担忧正在增加

Still, there are signs of increased caution, by both the government and the general public.

然而，无论是政府还是普通公众，都已表现出更为谨慎的迹象。

Some Chinese content creators have expressed unease about Seedance 2.0’s prowess.

一些中国内容创作者对Seedance 2.0的强大能力表示不安。

Feng Ji, the founder of a leading Chinese video game developer, wrote online that intellectual property laws would face “unprecedented challenges.” Disney and the Motion Picture Association, which represents major Hollywood studios, have already accused ByteDance, the Chinese company that made Seedance, of copyright infringement. (Not long after the release, ByteDance announced that it would temporarily restrict the creation of videos featuring real people.)

一家中国知名游戏开发公司的创始人冯骥在网上写道，知识产权法将面临“空前冲击”。迪士尼以及代表好莱坞主要电影公司的美国电影协会已经指控开发Seedance的中国公司字节跳动侵犯版权。（该工具发布不久后，字节跳动宣布将暂时限制生成包含真人形象的视频。）

在上海一个人工智能大会上的面部识别展示。

Users have also raised concerns about how easily the government’s restrictions can be bypassed. A Chinese feminist group recently highlighted tutorials for making sexually explicit deepfakes that circulate openly on Chinese social media. Attempts to report the images were unsuccessful, the group said.

用户还提出担忧，认为政府的监管很容易规避。一个中国女权团体最近指出，在中国社交媒体上公开流传着制作色情深度伪造的教程。该团体表示，他们尝试举报这些图片，但没有成功。

The Chinese government has also begun more directly addressing the technology’s potential for disrupting jobs, mental health or the Communist Party’s grip on power.

中国政府也开始更加直接地讨论这项技术可能对就业、心理健康以及共产党执政稳定带来的潜在影响。

The state news agency reported in January that the government would soon release an action plan to address A.I.’s effect on employment, as automation threatens to displace workers in some industries.

官方通讯社今年1月报道称，政府很快将发布一项行动计划，以应对人工智能对就业的影响，因为自动化可能取代某些行业的工人。

The government has also ordered A.I. companies to impose a wide range of guardrails, from blocking politically sensitive content to preventing users from becoming dependent on their A.I. companions.

政府还要求人工智能公司设置广泛的安全防护措施，包括屏蔽政治敏感内容，以及防止用户对人工智能伴侣产生依赖。

For all of its potential, China must not let A.I. “spiral out of control,” Mr. Xi warned during a recent meeting of the leaders of the Communist Party.

中国领导人近日在共产党领导人会议上警告称，尽管人工智能潜力巨大，但中国绝不能让其“失控”。

Across China, where education is famously cutthroat, parents are turning to artificial intelligence to gain a competitive edge. Some are making interactive learning games or using chatbots to grade their children’s homework. Others are using A.I.-powered gadgets to get past a language barrier.

在中国各地，教育竞争之激烈众所周知，家长们正纷纷转向人工智能，希望获取竞争优势。一些家长制作互动学习游戏，或用聊天机器人批改孩子的作业。还有一些家长借助由人工智能驱动的小工具来跨越语言障碍。

Their eagerness to experiment is one example of how Chinese users are embracing A.I. for learning, even as many in the United States worry that it feeds students misinformation or erodes critical thinking. This cultural rift is backed by data: A 2025 global survey led by the services firm KPMG found that more than 90 percent of Chinese said they felt optimistic about the technology, compared to just over 50 percent in the United States.

他们热衷于尝试新技术，这体现了中国用户在学习领域对人工智能的积极接纳；尽管许多美国人担心它会给学生灌输错误信息，或削弱审辩性思维。这种文化差异也有数据为证：2025年毕马威咨询主导的一项全球调查发现，超过90%的中国受访者表示对这项技术感到乐观，而在美国，这一比例仅略高于50%。

The enthusiasm in China has fueled a sprawling, often unchecked, marketplace for educational technology that is worth more than $43 billion by some estimates, and where gimmicks and exaggerated marketing are common. Yet for some families, the tools are providing genuine relief. Three parents shared videos of their routines, showing how A.I., while imperfect, has made parenting and teaching their children a little easier.

中国的这股热情催生了一个庞大且往往缺乏监管的教育科技市场，据一些估计，该市场规模已超过430亿美元，在这里，噱头和夸大宣传亦随处可见。然而对一些家庭来说，这些工具确实带来了实实在在的帮助。三位家长分享了他们的日常视频，展示了人工智能虽然不完美，但让育儿和教学变得稍微轻松了一些。

A.I. Translation Mask

智能翻译口罩

As a mother of two with a full-time public relations job, Zheng Wenqi, 42, had little time to practice English herself, let alone teach her children. She knew her 9-year-old son needed more conversational experience but didn’t know where to turn.

42岁的郑文琪（音）有一份全职的公关工作，还是两个孩子的母亲，她几乎没有时间练习自己的英语，更不用说教孩子了。她知道九岁的儿子需要更多的会话经验，但不知从何入手。

“There just wasn’t an opportunity for him to start talking,” said Ms. Zheng, who lives in northern China’s Heilongjiang Province.

“就没有这个契机让他开口，”住在中国北部黑龙江省的郑女士说。

Then she saw a livestream promoting a gadget she could wear to make her conversant in English.

后来，她在网上的直播中看到一种可穿戴设备，这种设备能让她流利地说英语。

It has two parts: a mask that covers her mouth, and a speaker that hangs around her neck. Ms. Zheng speaks Chinese into the mask, which also muffles her voice. Then, a translation comes out of the speaker. She began wearing it around the house, for 30 to 60 minutes a day.

该设备由两部分组成：一个遮住嘴巴的口罩，以及一个挂在脖子上的扬声器。郑女士对着能消音的口罩说中文，然后扬声器里就会传出翻译的英文。她开始在家里戴它，每天30到60分钟。

The roughly $375 device, called Native Language Star, draws on speech and language models developed by several Chinese technology firms, according to the company, based in Shenzhen, that makes the device.

这款名为母语星球的设备售价约人民币2500元。制造商是一家位于深圳的企业，据其宣称，该产品利用了中国几家科技公司开发的语音和语言模型。

Ms. Zheng said the translations were sometimes stiff. But she said that after about a month, her son was speaking more confidently and initiating conversations.

郑女士表示，翻译有时会比较生硬。但她说，大约一个月后，儿子说英语变得自信了，并会主动发起对话。

Ms. Zheng also uses the device with her 5-year-old daughter, who had never learned English before. The child can now describe daily tasks, like getting dressed and putting her shoes on.

郑女士还会与五岁的女儿一起使用该设备，女儿之前从未学过英语。现在，她已经能描述穿衣、穿鞋等日常活动。

“We say, ‘Now is English time, let’s all speak in English,’ and I’ll put that thing on,” Ms. Zheng said. “And then they just say whatever they know.”

“我们会说：‘我们说，现在是英语时间啊，我们大家都说英语，然后我带我挂着那个东西说，”郑女士说，“然后他俩就是自己会啥说啥。”

A Chatbot With ‘Eyes’

长了“眼睛”的聊天机器人

Li Linyun, a stay-at-home mother, used to fight with her 10-year-old daughter, Weixiao, over her studies.

全职母亲李琳云（音）以前常常因为学习问题和10岁的女儿微笑（音）发生争执。

Now Ms. Li has delegated supervision of Weixiao’s schoolwork to an A.I. chatbot.

现在，李女士已经把监督微笑做功课的任务交给了一款人工智能聊天机器人。

“It’s a 24-hour online teacher, and it’s knowledgeable and extremely patient,” said Ms. Li, who lives in Hunan Province, in central China.

“它就是一个24小时在线的一个老师， 而且知识渊博，还非常具有耐心，”住在华中省份湖南的李女士说。

Ms. Li uses Doubao, China’s most popular A.I. chatbot, which was created by ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok. It has a camera function, which parents refer to as Doubao’s “eyes.” People can use it to learn more about their surroundings, for instance by asking Doubao to identify plants or give more details about museum artifacts. (ChatGPT has a similar function for paying users; Doubao’s is free.)

李女士使用的是中国最受欢迎的人工智能聊天机器人豆包，由TikTok的母公司字节跳动开发。它具有摄像头功能，家长们称之为豆包的“眼睛”。人们可以用它来了解周围的环境，例如让豆包识别植物，或介绍博物馆文物的更多信息。（ChatGPT为付费用户提供类似功能；豆包则是免费的。）

After more experimentation, Ms. Li learned that Doubao could explain grammar rules better than she ever could.

经过多番尝试，李女士发现豆包对语法规则的解释比她自己清楚得多。

Weixiao said she liked that she could ask Doubao to repeat explanations as many times as she needed, while her teachers moved on quickly. “It explains in more detail, so I can understand,” she said.

微笑说，她喜欢可以随时让豆包反复解释，而她的老师通常很快就继续讲新的内容了。“我觉得它讲的更详细，让我能听懂，”她说。

Ms. Li also began asking Doubao to grade completed homework assignments by uploading a photo to the app.

李女士还开始让豆包给已经做完的作业评分，只需给作业拍照然后上传到应用中。

The chatbot identifies wrong answers and corrects them, Ms. Li said, though it sometimes makes mistakes.

李女士说，这个聊天机器人可以找出错误答案并进行纠正，尽管有时也会出错。

The camera can also monitor Weixiao’s posture. But Ms. Li said she rarely used that feature, because her daughter didn’t like the feeling of being watched.

摄像头还可以监测微笑的坐姿。但李女士说，她很少使用这个功能，因为女儿不喜欢被监视的感觉。

Ms. Li said she wasn’t worried about feeding so much footage of Weixiao to the chatbot. In the social media age, “we don’t have a lot of privacy anyway,” she said.

李女士表示，她并不担心向聊天机器人提供这么多关于女儿的影像。在社交媒体时代，“我觉得我们也没有很多隐私，”她说。

And the benefits were more than worthwhile. She no longer had to spend hundreds of dollars a month on English tutoring, and Weixiao’s grades had improved. “It makes educational resources more equitable for ordinary people,” Ms. Li said.

而且由此带来的好处是值得的。她无需每月再花费几千块请英语家教，微笑的成绩也提高了。“可以让我们普通人的这个教育资源能够更加公平一些，”李女士说。

Her relationship with Weixiao had improved, too, she said. “To ease tensions in a parent-child relationship, you can’t spend too much time on homework,” she said. “Just encouraging her is enough.”

她还表示，自己和女儿的关系也改善了。“然后也就是亲子关系，其实如果想要缓解的话，真的是不能在作业上花太多时间，”她说，“给她鼓励就行了。”

Creating Learning Games

制作学习游戏

Yin Xingyu, 37, uses A.I. chatbots like DeepSeek in her job as a marketer in Shenzhen. She started to wonder whether the tool could also help her 6-year-old daughter.

37岁的殷星昱在深圳从事市场营销工作，在工作中会使用DeepSeek这样的人工智能聊天机器人。她开始思考这个工具是否也能帮到她六岁的女儿。

Ms. Yin didn’t know how to code, so she turned to what’s known as “vibecoding” instead: using A.I. models to build software by describing what you want in plain language. She worked with DeepSeek to build an interactive English word game for her daughter. The chatbot wrote the code for her.

殷星昱不会编程，于是转而使用一种被称为“氛围编程”的方法：用自然语言描述需求，让人工智能模型帮助构建软件。她与DeepSeek一起为女儿开发了一个互动式英语单词游戏。代码是由聊天机器人为她写的。

She is now sharing the prompts on social media so other parents can input them into their own chatbots and replicate her games.

她在社交媒体上分享了这些提示词，以便其他家长可以将其输入自己的聊天机器人，复制她的游戏。

Ms. Yin has also experimented with other models. She used Google’s A.I. image generator, Nano Banana Pro, to create comic strips that used her daughter’s Chinese vocabulary words, starring her favorite characters from movies like “Zootopia” and “Frozen.”

殷星昱还尝试了其他模型。她使用谷歌的人工智能图像生成工具Nano Banana Pro，用女儿能理解的中文词创作连环画，主角是她女儿最喜欢的《疯狂动物城》和《冰雪奇缘》等电影中的角色。

Ms. Yin said she didn’t think that her daughter would become dependent on A.I., because she designed the games to prioritize active thinking over passive stimulation. She plans to encourage her daughter to use the tools even more as she gets older; for example, by using chatbots to brainstorm ideas for essays.

殷星昱说，她并不担心女儿会对人工智能产生依赖，因为她设计这些游戏时更强调主动思考，而不是被动的刺激。随着女儿长大，她甚至计划鼓励她更多地使用这些工具，比如利用聊天机器人为作文构思点子。

“Most likely that’s how the future will be, and I want her to get used to it from a young age,” she said.

“我觉得大概率这个未来是这样子的，你要去习惯，”她说。

‘A.I. Self-Study Rooms’

“AI自习室”

Not every effort to use A.I. for education has been successful. Some companies have rolled out products that critics say are more hype than substance.

并不是所有利用人工智能进行教育的尝试都取得了成功。一些公司推出的产品，被批评者认为噱头大于实质。

So-called “A.I. self-study rooms,” for example, are advertised as physical spaces where students can learn from A.I.-powered tablets that tailor learning plans to individual needs. Fees range from a few dollars an hour to hundreds of dollars a month.

例如所谓的“AI自习室”，被宣传为一种实体学习空间，学生可以在那里使用由人工智能驱动的平板电脑学习，这些设备会根据个人需求制定学习计划。收费从每小时几十元到每月上千元不等。

A state media report from 2024 about the trend showed a classroom in Zhejiang Province lined with cubicles, where students sat quietly in front of tablets that assessed their completion of assignments for accuracy and speed.

2024年，有官媒报道了浙江的一个AI自习室，里面排列着隔间，学生们安静地坐在平板电脑前，平板电脑会根据学生完成作业的准确率和速度进行评估。

But some parents and former employees have complained that the “A.I.” is merely a marketing facade for prerecorded lessons or other less advanced technology, and that the tablets are just basic, off-the-shelf devices.

但一些家长和前员工抱怨说，所谓的“人工智能”其实只是营销外衣，背后不过是预先录制的课程或其他较为落后的技术，而那些平板电脑也只是普通的现成设备。

State media outlets have also accused the operators of some of the centers of trying to circumvent a 2021 ban on for-profit tutoring that was meant to shield children from having too much homework and families from spending too heavily. Many tutoring services have continued to operate underground. (The study centers have said that A.I. is doing the teaching, not tutors, so the ban does not apply.)

官方媒体还指责，一些自习室的经营者试图绕过中国2021年出台的营利性教辅禁令。该禁令旨在减少孩子的作业负担，并避免家庭在补课上花费过多。但许多教辅服务仍在地下运营。（这些自习室则表示，教学由人工智能完成，而不是由辅导老师，因此禁令不适用。）

Many of the study rooms have already shut down, according to media reports. The New York Times twice tried to visit one in Beijing, only to find it locked and empty, with posters purporting to show reviews from satisfied parents still on the walls.

据媒体报道，许多这样的自习室已经关闭。《纽约时报》曾两次尝试探访北京的一家AI自习室，却发现大门紧锁、空无一人，墙上的海报展示着家长的好评。

May Zeng, 24, worked at a study room in Jiangxi Province for two months last year, where she was in charge of making sure that students didn’t slack off. She thought that parents didn’t care as much about A.I. as they did about having somewhere to put their children.

24岁的曾梅（音）去年在江西一家自习室工作了两个月，她的职责是确保学生不会偷懒。她认为，家长其实并不那么在意人工智能，而更在意是否有一个地方可以把孩子送过去。

Still, A.I. was getting used — by Ms. Zeng herself. As part of her duties, she had to write feedback on each student’s progress.

不过，人工智能还是被用上了——只是使用的人是曾梅自己。作为工作的一部分，她需要为每个学生写学习进展反馈。

“When I found I really had nothing to say, I’d just throw it to the A.I.,” she said. “In this A.I. self-study room, I was the one using the most A.I.”

“我发现自己有时候词穷之后我就会给扔给它，”她说，“所以觉得在这个AI自习室，其实我用AI是用的最多的”。

For years, the Persian Gulf countries had worried about the prospect of an out-of-control war with Iran, which would bring missiles and drones to their gleaming cities, trapping tourists and sending foreign executives fleeing.

多年来，波斯湾国家一直担忧与伊朗爆发一场失控的战争，届时导弹和无人机将袭击他们光鲜靓丽的城市，困住游客，逼走外国高管。

The fear of conflict is one reason they have cultivated such close ties with the United States. They have built American military bases and spent tens of billions of dollars on American weapons.

对冲突的恐惧是它们与美国建立紧密关系的原因之一。它们允许美国建立军事基地，并斥资数百亿美元购买美国武器。

They had hoped to buy protection from Iran and its regional proxies.

它们本希望以此买到保护，免受伊朗及其地区代理人的威胁。

But the United States and Israel have launched a massive assault that has rapidly spiraled into a nightmare scenario for Gulf leaders. In retaliation, Iran has fired more than a thousand missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. The strikes have killed at least seven people in those countries, according to official reports tallied by The New York Times.

但美国和以色列发动的大规模袭击迅速演变为海湾国家领导人的噩梦场景。作为报复，伊朗已向沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特和阿曼发射逾千导弹与无人机。《纽约时报》统计的官方报告显示，袭击已造成这些国家至少七人死亡。

Their governments are now facing uncomfortable questions about whether their stockpile of missile interceptors and strategic food reserves can last through the war.

这些国家的政府如今面临棘手问题：库存的导弹拦截弹和战略粮食储备能否撑过这场战争。

周二，阿拉伯联合酋长国迪拜滨海区。多年来，波斯湾国家一直担忧与伊朗爆发战争的可能性，这场战争将使导弹和无人机飞抵他们光鲜靓丽的城市。

More dangerous questions loom: Will they join the fight against Iran and risk a major escalation against them? Or will they double down on diplomacy even though their lobbying to prevent the war seems to have made little impact?

更危险的问题迫在眉睫：它们是否要加入对伊朗作战，令自己冒着冲突大幅升级的风险；抑或继续加倍投入外交努力——尽管此前阻止战争的游说似乎收效甚微。

“The Gulf states are caught in a strategic squeeze between the United States and Iran in a conflict they did not choose and are trying to manage this with a mix of diplomacy, restraint and defensive readiness,” said Abdullah Baabood, an Omani academic at Waseda University in Japan.

“海湾国家在一场并非自己选择的冲突中被夹在美国与伊朗之间，正试图以外交、克制和防御准备相结合的方式应对，”日本早稻田大学的阿曼学者阿卜杜拉·巴阿布德表示。

As they try to balance these interests, Gulf governments are hoping to keep the region stable “even as external powers clash around them,” he said.

他还说，在努力平衡这些利益的同时，海湾国家政府仍希望维持地区稳定，“即便外部势力在其周边激烈对抗。”

The list of targets hit by Iran in the Gulf has included not only American military bases and embassies in the Gulf, but also energy installations, airports and resorts. In the Middle East business capital of Dubai — a city that was effectively immune to regional conflicts for decades — explosions shattered apartment windows and five-star hotels caught fire.

伊朗在海湾地区打击的目标不仅包括美军基地和使馆，还涵盖能源设施、机场和度假胜地。在数十年几乎不受地区冲突影响的中东商业之都迪拜，爆炸震碎了公寓窗户，数家五星级酒店起火。

“The inability of key Gulf states to dissuade President Trump from maximalist Israeli notions of chaotic regime change in Iran shows the traditional limits of their influence in Washington when it comes to regional security,” said Yasmine Farouk, the director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project for the International Crisis Group.

“海湾核心国家未能阻止特朗普总统接受以色列的极端主张，即令伊朗在混乱中发生政权更迭，这显示出它们在地区安全问题上对华盛顿影响力的传统局限，”国际危机组织海湾与阿拉伯半岛项目主任亚斯明·法鲁克说。

周二在科威特城，参加两名士兵的葬礼的人群。

The stakes rose on Monday, when the U.S. State Department issued a warning to American citizens across a dozen Arab countries to “depart now via commercial means.” It did not mention that airspace had already been closed in many of those nations, leaving few viable escape routes.

周一，局势进一步升级，美国国务院向十多个阿拉伯国家的美国公民发出警告，要求“立即通过商业渠道离境”。声明未提及这些国家的许多空域已关闭，几乎没有可行的撤离航线。

“If the Iranian threat and Israeli war machine persist, then the future is not promising,” Ms. Farouk said.

“如果伊朗的威胁和以色列的战争机器持续存在，未来将不容乐观，”法鲁克表示。

For Gulf governments, both Iran and Israel pose risks to the regional stability that their economic prosperity depends on. Oman and Qatar have cultivated friendly relations with Iran, and over the past few years, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia have also built deeper ties with Iran to lower its potential threat.

对海湾国家政府而言，伊朗和以色列都对其经济繁荣所依赖的地区稳定构成威胁。阿曼和卡塔尔与伊朗保持友好关系，过去几年，阿联酋和沙特也与伊朗深化关系，以降低潜在威胁。

Mohammed Baharoon, the head of B’huth, a research center in Dubai, predicted that the Gulf nations will try to de-escalate tensions even after these attacks.

迪拜研究中心B’huth负责人穆罕默德·巴哈伦预测，即便遭遇袭击，海湾国家仍会努力缓和紧张局势。

And even though Iran and its proxies have stirred tensions and violence in the Middle East in recent years, Mr. Baharoon said, “Israel and the U.S. continue to be the main cause of instability in the region.”

巴哈伦表示，尽管伊朗及其代理人近年在中东制造紧张与暴力，但“以色列和美国仍是该地区不稳定的主要根源”。

Arab countries share that view. For a generation, people have watched successive U.S. wars and conflicts started by its allies wielding American weapons that leave entire countries in tatters. While Gulf leaders have built warm relationships with Mr. Trump and his family, they are also wary of his unpredictability, analysts say.

阿拉伯国家普遍持这一观点。整整一代人目睹美国接连发动战争，其盟友使用美国武器挑起冲突，让一些国家支离破碎。分析人士称，尽管海湾国家领导人与特朗普及其家族建立了良好关系，但也对他的不可预测性保持警惕。

周日卡塔尔多哈的伊朗导弹袭击。

While Israeli and American officials might believe that the benefits of potential regime change in Iran could override the potential consequences of the war, Mr. Baharoon said he was “not sure this is an outcome that we will see in the remaining part of a Trump presidency.”

法鲁克表示，美以官员或许认为，伊朗政权更迭的潜在收益可能超过战争后果，但他“不确定在特朗普剩余任期内能看到这个结果的实现”。

If the war ends up toppling or weakening the Iranian regime, Gulf leaders would be forced to face another uncomfortable issue. Iran is a regional rival and a persistent security threat to some Gulf countries, especially to Saudi Arabia. But Gulf officials and analysts said they saw Iran’s power as a check on Israel’s regional ambitions.

如果战争最终推翻或削弱伊朗政权，海湾国家领导人将被迫面对另一个棘手问题。伊朗是地区对手，对部分海湾国家尤其是沙特构成持续安全威胁。但海湾地区官员与分析人士表示，他们认为伊朗的力量可以制衡以色列的地区野心。

And even though several Gulf rulers have cultivated closer ties with Israel in recent years, none of them want a Middle East dominated by the nation.

尽管近年多名海湾统治者积极发展与以色列的关系，但无人希望出现一个由以色列主导的中东。

Some Gulf officials have come to view Israel as a threat to regional security, too, according to analysts. Israel has become increasingly belligerent since the Iran-backed Hamas led an attack on the country on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed about 1,200 people.

分析人士称，部分海湾官员已开始将以色列也视为地区安全威胁。自2023年10月7日伊朗支持的哈马斯袭击以色列，造成约1200人死亡后，以色列变得愈发好战。

Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani, a former Qatari prime minister, warned in a series of social media posts this week that once this war ends, “new dynamics will emerge in the region,” and “Israel is likely to wield considerable influence.”

卡塔尔前首相哈马德·本·贾西姆·阿勒萨尼本周在一系列社交媒体帖文中警告，一旦战争结束，“地区将出现新态势，”并且“以色列可能掌握巨大的影响力”。

Sheikh Hamad urged the Gulf states not to be drawn “into a direct confrontation with Iran” and called for greater self-reliance. What had happened this week “compels the Gulf to reassess its strategic outlook to ensure that we are not drawn into conflicts that do not serve our interests,” he added.

哈马德敦促海湾国家不要被“拖入与伊朗的直接对抗”，并呼吁加强自主能力。他补充说，本周发生的一切“迫使海湾重新评估战略前景，确保不被卷入不符合自身利益的冲突”。

周一，迪拜国际机场的到达大厅空无一人。

“This reassessment requires building a credible deterrent capability that relies less on external allies and more on our own collective capacities,” Sheikh Hamad added.

“这一重新评估需要建立可靠的威慑能力，更少依赖外部盟友，更多依靠我们自身的集体力量，”哈马德表示。

Gulf officials have so far at least publicly indicated that they are seeking to de-escalate the war, not join it.

截至目前，海湾官员至少在公开层面表示，他们寻求缓和战争，而非加入战争。

“We are in contact with our allies in the region and with all those concerned to discuss de-escalation,” Majed al-Ansari, a Qatari foreign ministry spokesman, said in a news media briefing on Tuesday. “Our focus is on defending our homeland.”

“我们正与地区盟友及有关各方接触，讨论缓和局势，”卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里周二在新闻发布会上表示。“我们的重点是保卫祖国。”

The United Arab Emirates, which has faced the brunt of the Iranian attacks this week, also believes that diplomacy remains the only viable path to ending the regional crisis, Reem Al-Hashimy, an Emirati minister of state, told a news media briefing on Tuesday.

在本周伊朗发起的袭击中，阿联酋首当其冲，该国国务部长雷姆·阿尔哈希米周二在新闻发布会上表示，外交仍是结束地区危机的唯一可行途径。

“The military solution will only lead to more crises,” she said.

“军事解决方案只会带来更多危机，”她说。

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s first priority is to survive. To do that, its leaders will want to drive up the cost of the war for President Trump — in terms of American casualties, energy costs and inflation — to try to persuade him to declare victory and go home.

伊朗伊斯兰共和国的首要任务是生存。为此，其领导人将设法提高这场战争带给特朗普总统的代价——无论是美军伤亡、能源价格或是通胀——试图说服他宣告胜利、收兵回国。

Faced with the overwhelming firepower of the United States and Israel, diplomats and analysts say, Iran is working to enlarge the battlefield from its own territory to the broader region. The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic — all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation. Iran will also be trying to exhaust the number of expensive missile interceptors held by its enemies.

外交官和分析人士表示，面对美国和以色列的压倒性火力，伊朗正努力将战场从本国领土扩大至整个地区。其目标包括破坏邻国油气基础设施、封锁霍尔木兹海峡航运、削减空中交通。所有这些都是为了扰乱波斯湾国家的经济，推高全球能源价格与通胀。伊朗还将试图耗尽对手昂贵的导弹拦截系统储备。

“The war has become a test of wills and stamina,” said Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “Iran is facing qualitatively superior militaries, so the strategy is to test their will by expanding the battlefield, complicating the war and increasing the danger to the world economy.”

“这场战争已成为意志与耐力的较量，”华盛顿约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的瓦利·纳赛尔说。“伊朗面对的是质量上占优的军队，因此其战略是通过扩大战场、将战争复杂化、增加对世界经济的威胁，来考验对方的意志。”

The strategy is not complicated.

这一战略并不复杂。

Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, said, “The Iranians want to spread the pain as much as they can, regardless of the cost to themselves and burned relations with their neighbors, hoping to create enough opposition to the war to compel President Trump to back off.”

总部位于布鲁塞尔的智库国际危机组织伊朗项目负责人阿里·瓦埃兹表示：“伊朗人企图不惜代价将痛苦扩散至最大范围，即便这意味着与邻国关系破裂，希望制造足够多的反战压力，迫使特朗普总统收手。”

“For the Islamic Republic,” he added, “survival is a victory, even if it is a Pyrrhic one.”

“对伊斯兰共和国而言，”他补充道，“生存就是胜利，哪怕是一场惨胜。”

周二，美以空袭后德黑兰正在清理瓦砾。一位分析人士表示：“这场战争已演变成意志与耐力的较量。”

The plan is so-called asymmetric endurance, accepting initial damage to preserve the ability to escalate when Israeli, American and Persian Gulf air defenses are stretched thin. The thinking behind that strategy is that Mr. Trump, facing midterm elections and a skeptical MAGA movement, will choose to curtail the war before American casualties, and inflation, go much higher.

该计划就是所谓的非对称持久战：承受初期损失，以保留升级战事的实力，待以色列、美国及波斯湾地区防空力量捉襟见肘时再行反击。这一战略背后的判断是：面临中期选举与“让美国再次伟大”运动内部质疑的特朗普，会选择在美国伤亡和通胀进一步攀升前结束战争。

Already, U.S. and even some European bases and embassies have been attacked, six American troops have been killed and three planes shot down. Hezbollah has entered the war, and the Persian Gulf countries are anxious and running out of expensive interceptors used against cheap Iranian drones. Saudi and Qatari energy installations have been struck. Oil and gas prices have shot up and shipping has practically stopped through the Strait of Hormuz, through which at least a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas normally travels.

目前，美国甚至部分欧洲国家的基地与使馆已遭袭击，六名美军士兵死亡，三架飞机被击落。真主党已参战，波斯湾国家焦虑不安，用于拦截廉价伊朗无人机的昂贵拦截弹即将耗尽。沙特与卡塔尔能源设施遭袭。油气价格暴涨，霍尔木兹海峡航运几乎停滞——全球至少五分之一的石油与天然气通常经由这里运输。

Ali Larijani, secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, claimed on social media on Monday that Iran, “unlike the United States, has prepared itself for a long war,” including plans for gradual escalation and expansion of the battlefield.

伊朗国家安全委员会秘书阿里·拉里贾尼周一在社交媒体上宣称，伊朗“与美国不同，已为长期战争做好准备”，包括逐步升级与扩大战场的计划。

Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst, called the conflict “a race for and against time.” Israel, the United States and their allies are trying to destroy missiles, launchers and communication nodes as quickly as possible, he said, so that more advanced Iranian missiles cannot easily be launched when interceptors are in short supply.

军事分析师弗朗茨-斯特凡·加迪称这场冲突是“一场争取时间又在对抗时间的较量”。他表示，以色列、美国及其盟友正试图尽快摧毁导弹、发射装置与通信节点，以便在拦截弹短缺时，伊朗更先进的导弹无法轻易发射。

Even the heavily armed Israel, toward the end of the 12-day war against Iran in June, had to limit its use of interceptors, allowing some Iranian missiles to land if they were not deemed to be close to key sites or cities.

即便是军备雄厚的以色列，在去年6月为期12天的对伊朗战争接近尾声时也不得不限制拦截弹的使用，允许部分未靠近关键地点或城市的伊朗导弹落地。

耶路撒冷防空系统周日开火拦截伊朗发射的导弹。

If Iran’s strategy is clear, so are the risks. And those are already coming into view.

如果说伊朗的战略清晰，那么其风险也同样明显。而这些风险已初现端倪。

On Monday, Mr. Trump vowed to continue the war for at least another month and did not rule out the use of American ground troops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The hardest hits are yet to come,” and the Pentagon said it would send more soldiers and fighter jets to the war.

周一，特朗普誓言将战争至少再持续一个月，且不排除动用美国地面部队。国务卿鲁比奥表示：“最猛烈的打击还在后头。”五角大楼称将向战场增派士兵与战斗机。

And there are suggestions, analysts say, that the United States is encouraging Iranian minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, to rise up against the government, bombing police and army positions in those territories, hoping to create at least the start of a popular uprising.

分析人士称，有迹象显示，美国正在鼓动库尔德人、俾路支人等伊朗少数族群反抗政府，轰炸这些地区的警察与军队据点，希望至少为民意起事的开端创造条件。

Although Iran has attacked Persian Gulf countries, including hotels and airports, Tehran has so far failed to drive a wedge between them and Washington.

尽管伊朗已袭击多个波斯海湾国家，包括酒店与机场，但德黑兰迄今未能在这些国家与华盛顿之间制造裂痕。

The nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, issued a statement on Sunday underlining “their unified stance in confronting these attacks, stressing that the security of G.C.C. member states is indivisible” and reserving the right to respond in self-defense.

包括沙特在内的海湾合作委员会国家周日发表声明，强调“在应对这些袭击上立场统一，强调海合会成员国安全不可分割”，并保留自卫反击权利。

While calling for a cessation of hostilities, the members have not criticized the U.S.-Israel war against Iran and are likely to allow American forces to have overflight rights, which they denied at the start of the war.

这些成员国虽呼吁停止敌对行动，但并未批评美以对伊战争，且可能允许美军飞越其领空——这一权利在战争初期曾被它们拒绝。

In the past, the Persian Gulf nations have acted as mediators, urging Washington to pursue negotiations with Tehran instead of war. But, under attack from Iran, those countries are now more likely to allow American forces greater operational access to their airspace and territory that would help the United States conduct operations more efficiently, said Hasan T. Alhasan, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London research organization.

伦敦研究机构国际战略研究所的中东专家哈桑·阿尔哈桑表示，以往，波斯湾国家曾扮演调解者，敦促华盛顿与德黑兰谈判而非开战。但如今在遭到伊朗袭击后，这些国家更可能向美军提供更大的空域与领土行动便利，帮助美军更高效地开展行动。

Britain, France and Germany, which have criticized Iran but did not initially support this war, have also now indicated that they could act to protect their own troops and interests in the Persian Gulf, Mr. Alhasan told the BBC, “because everyone realizes that the collective global interest here is at stake.”

英国、法国和德国虽然批评伊朗，但最初并未支持这场战争。这些国家现在也表示可能采取行动保护自己在波斯湾的部队和利益，阿尔哈桑告诉BBC，“因为所有人都意识到，这里涉及的是全球共同利益”。

But having tried to wean itself off Russian gas, Europe is more dependent than ever on energy from the Persian Gulf, while half of India’s oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. So pressures on Mr. Trump to shorten the war will grow, even if Israel is anxious to force a conclusion to end the threat of the Islamic Republic.

但欧洲在努力摆脱对俄罗斯天然气依赖后，比以往任何时候都更依赖波斯湾能源；印度一半的石油也需经霍尔木兹海峡运输。因此，即便以色列急于一劳永逸消除伊朗伊斯兰共和国的威胁，要求特朗普缩短战争的压力也会不断加大。

黎巴嫩贝鲁特的一所学校被用作被迫逃离家园者的避难所。

Mr. Trump often talks about wanting to do a deal with Iran and has recently brought up the example of Venezuela, where he was content to capture President Nicolás Maduro but leave his government largely in place. “What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect, the perfect scenario,” Mr. Trump told The New York Times on Sunday.

特朗普经常谈及希望与伊朗达成协议，最近还以委内瑞拉为例：他满足于抓捕总统马杜罗而基本保留其政府架构。“我们在委内瑞拉的做法，我认为是完美、完美的范例，”特朗普周日对《纽约时报》表示。

It may be that Iran, too, will replace the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed on the first day of the war, with a less ideological government that could be willing to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program to preserve the system.

伊朗也有可能替换战争首日身亡的最高领袖哈梅内伊，组建一个意识形态色彩更淡的政府，该政府愿意就核计划谈判以保全现有体制。

As ever, it is hard to know Mr. Trump’s mind, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations, a research group. “Trump already took out Khamenei, which no other president dared to do,” she said. “He has an offramp if he wants, even if Israel sees a momentous window to take out this regime.”

欧洲对外关系委员会的伊朗专家埃莉·盖尔马耶赫表示，特朗普的真实想法向来难以捉摸。“特朗普已经除掉了哈梅内伊，这是历任总统都不敢做的，”她说。“即便以色列认为这是推翻该政权的重大窗口期，特朗普仍可随时抽身。”

Matthew Kroenig, a former U.S. defense official under Republican presidents who studies Mr. Trump’s foreign policy, agreed. Mr. Trump “is skeptical of long, drawn-out military campaigns” and could be satisfied with a number of outcomes, including the Venezuela model, he said.

曾在共和党总统任内担任美国国防官员、研究特朗普外交政策的马修·克罗尼格对此表示赞同。他说，特朗普“对旷日持久的军事行动持怀疑态度”，多种结果都可能让他满意，包括委内瑞拉模式。

“They’ve already achieved several of their objectives,” added Mr. Kroenig, who is vice president of the Atlantic Council in Washington. Ayatollah Khamenei and much of the leadership of a major American adversary are dead, and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and other military capabilities are badly degraded, Mr. Kroenig noted.

“他们已经实现了多个目标，”兼任华盛顿大西洋理事会副主席的克罗尼格补充说。他指出，最高领袖哈梅内伊以及这个美国主要对手的大部分领导层已经死亡，伊朗核计划、导弹计划及其他军事能力遭到严重削弱。

“So I think they could go home almost at any time and declare this a success,” he said. Right now, he added, “I think the strategy is more about what they want to avoid than about exactly what they want to achieve.”

“所以我认为他们几乎随时可以宣告胜利并收兵，”他说。他还表示，目前来看，“战略更侧重于规避风险而非追求具体目标。”

The détente between China and the United States was already fragile. Now it faces a new strain: the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, an American-backed strike that Beijing denounced as a blatant attempt at regime change.

中美之间本就脆弱的缓和关系如今又面临新的压力：美国支持的刺杀伊朗最高领袖行动被北京谴责为公然企图改变政权。

China has moved quickly to condemn the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with its top diplomat, Wang Yi, accusing both governments of assassinating another country’s leader and pledging to support Tehran’s sovereignty and security.

中国迅速谴责了美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击，中国最高外交官王毅指责两国政府暗杀他国领导人，并承诺支持伊朗的主权与安全。

The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came less than two months after American forces captured President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, another close partner of China. Together, the moves amount to a forceful display of American power against governments China has cultivated as part of its broader global strategy.

伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡距美军抓捕中国另一亲密伙伴委内瑞拉总统马杜罗还不到两个月。这两起行动共同构成美国力量的强力展示，直指中国全球战略中重点培育的政府。

Yet for Beijing, the question is how far to defend Iran, its closest diplomatic partner in the Middle East, without hurting its own economic interests or worsening tensions with the United States.

但对北京而言，核心问题是：在不损害自身经济利益、不加剧与美国紧张关系的前提下，应该在多大程度上捍卫其中东最密切的外交伙伴伊朗。

Already, the fighting has touched China directly. China’s foreign ministry said a Chinese national had been killed in Tehran and that Beijing was scrambling to evacuate thousands of its citizens.

战事已直接波及中国。中国外交部称，一名中国公民在德黑兰遇难，北京正紧急撤离数以千计的在伊公民。

一名工人周一在伊朗德黑兰空袭后拆除受损建筑的钢结构。

Beijing is likely troubled by the potential ripple effects of the American and Israeli strikes. China is the world’s largest importer of energy and Iran has already threatened to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which a fifth of the world’s oil travels. That could drive up prices and hit China’s economy.

美以发动的袭击带来的潜在连锁反应很可能让北京忧心忡忡。中国是全球最大能源进口国，而伊朗已威胁要“点燃”所有穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只——这条伊朗南部沿海的航道承载着全球五分之一的石油运输。这可能推高能源价格，冲击中国经济。

There is also a quieter, domestic sensitivity to foreign-backed regime change. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, who has been in power since 2012 and is widely expected to begin a fourth term next year, presides over a political system that brooks no dissent. Under a Chinese state media article about Mr. Khamenei’s death, internet users congratulated Iranian residents and wondered aloud which leader might be next. Other comments suggesting that Iranians might have been celebrating have been censored.

此外，中国国内对于外国势力推动的政权更迭还有一层更隐秘的敏感情绪。自2012年执政、并被广泛预计将于明年开启第四个任期的中国领导人习近平领导着一个不容异见的政治体制。在中国官媒一篇关于哈梅内伊身亡的报道下，有网民向伊朗民众道贺，并大胆猜测下一个遇刺的领导人可能是谁。其他暗示伊朗民众可能在庆祝的评论已被审查删除。

Even as it navigates the various dimensions of the fallout from Iran, Beijing is likely most focused on its relationship with the United States.

即便要应对伊朗局势引发的多方面连锁反应，北京最关注的大概率仍是与美国的关系。

President Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, are weeks away from a summit in Beijing where they are expected to extend a trade truce between the world’s two-largest economies.

特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平几周后将在北京举行峰会，预计双方会延长这两大经济体之间的贸易休战协议。

The White House has said the meeting would take place from March 31 to April 2. China has yet to confirm details of the meeting and a foreign ministry spokeswoman said on Monday only that the two countries were in talks.

白宫已宣布会晤将于3月31日至4月2日举行。中国尚未确认会晤细节，外交部发言人周一仅表示，两国正就此沟通。

China could still consider canceling or postponing the meeting with Mr. Trump to show its displeasure with Washington’s use of military power against Iran.

中国仍可能考虑取消或推迟与特朗普的会晤，以此表达对华盛顿对伊朗动武的不满。

1989年，时任伊朗总统哈梅内伊访问中国，在北京会见了中国领导人邓小平。

Despite its sharp rhetoric over Iran, Beijing has strong incentives to keep its relationship with the United States on an even keel, analysts said. China wants Washington to agree to extend the trade truce, reduce its support for Taiwan and ease its restrictions on technology exports.

分析人士称，尽管在伊朗问题上言辞激烈，北京仍有强烈动机维持与美国关系的平稳。中国希望华盛顿同意延长贸易休战、减少对台支持，并放宽对华技术出口限制。

“Beijing cares much more about managing the United States than events in the Middle East,” said Julian Gewirtz, a former senior director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“比起中东局势，北京更在意如何处理对美关系，”拜登政府时期国家安全委员会中国与台湾事务前高级主任朱利安·格维茨表示。

The trip to China, which would be the first by an American president since Mr. Trump went in 2017, is seen as vital for maintaining the truce Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump reached last October in Busan, South Korea. Before that, China and the United States had engaged in a blistering trade war that sunk relations to their lowest point in more than 50 years.

此次访华将是特朗普2017年访华后美国总统首次访华，被视为维系习近平与特朗普去年10月在韩国釜山达成的休战协议的关键。此前，中美曾爆发激烈贸易战，双边关系跌至50多年来的最低点。

For China, postponing or canceling the summit would carry costs of its own. Mr. Trump has signaled a willingness to avoid confrontation with Beijing. His administration recently delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing. It has eased restrictions on sales of advanced American chips to China. Mr. Trump refrained from mentioning China in last week’s State of the Union address, an unusual omission.

对中国而言，推迟或取消峰会自身也将付出代价。特朗普已释放出避免与北京对抗的意愿：其政府近期推迟公布对台军售计划（台湾是北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿），放宽了对华先进芯片的销售限制；上周国情咨文演讲中，特朗普未提及中国，这是一个不寻常的遗漏。

The legal landscape has also shifted in favor of Beijing, with the recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs. His new 10 percent tariff on global imports is beneficial to China.

法律层面也出现对北京有利的变化：美国最高法院近期的裁决推翻了特朗普多项关税政策；他新推出的全球进口商品10%关税政策对中国有利。

Walking away from the meeting could mean forfeiting that momentum.

放弃此次会晤可能意味着错失这一有利势头。

2017年，特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平举行会晤。当时特朗普对中国进行了国事访问，虽然仪式隆重，但未取得实质性成果。

Beyond the summit, the conflict could reshape the strategic landscape in ways that benefit Beijing. Already, the United States has amassed the largest military force in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, deploying aircraft carrier strike groups and jets to the region. If that effort proves sustained, it could draw American attention and resources away from Asia.

除峰会外，这场冲突还可能重塑战略格局，给北京带来利好。美国已在中东集结了自2003年伊拉克战争以来规模最大的军事力量，向该地区部署了航母打击群与战机。若这一部署持续，可能会将美国的注意力与资源从亚洲转移。

Beijing may not be bothered if “the United States becomes bogged down in another unpopular war in the Middle East” that distracts it from China, Mr. Gewirtz said.

格维茨表示，如果“美国再次陷入一场不得人心的中东战争”，从而分散对中国的关注，北京或许并不会介意。

Beijing must also thread a diplomatic needle with Tehran. China has forged deep economic ties with many of the countries in the Gulf that Iran has launched attacks against in recent days, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Mr. Wang tried to strike a balance in his call with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, calling on Iran to “pay attention to reasonable concerns of its neighboring countries.”

北京还必须在对伊朗外交方面拿捏分寸。中国与伊朗近期袭击的多个海湾国家（如阿联酋、沙特）有着深厚经济联系。王毅在与伊朗外长阿拉格齐通话时试图平衡立场，呼吁伊朗“重视邻国合理关切”。

Unlike the United States, which has formal defense commitments with dozens of allies, China has only one, with North Korea. Its partnerships with Iran and Venezuela are strategic, not military alliances.

美国与数十个盟友有正式防务承诺，而中国仅与朝鲜有此类承诺。中伊、中委关系是战略伙伴关系，而非军事同盟。

“Xi Jinping is unsentimental toward all of Beijing’s external relationships. He got to where he is based on his hardheadedness,” said Joe Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington research group. “There’s not a large dividend for having a soft heart in the Chinese Communist Party.”

“习近平对北京所有对外关系都不感情用事，他能走到今天的位置，靠的是务实强硬，”华盛顿研究机构大西洋理事会高级研究员乔·韦伯斯特表示。“在中共内部，心软没什么好处。”

Beijing will instead likely continue to offer rhetorical support for Tehran while arguing that the United States is the greatest source of global instability. An editorial in the Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, on Monday called on the international community to reject what it said was Washington’s bid to return the world to the “law of the jungle.”

因此，北京大概率会继续在口头上支持伊朗，同时指责美国是全球不稳定的最大根源。中共所有的小报《环球时报》周一发表社论，呼吁国际社会抵制华盛顿试图让世界重回“丛林法则”的行径。

Chinese analysts speaking to state media say the United States and Israel are sowing chaos in the Middle East and have set a dangerous precedent by assassinating Mr. Khamenei.

中国官媒援引的分析人士称，美以两国正在中东播撒混乱，且暗杀哈梅内伊开创了危险先例。

Still, the strikes on Iran have laid bare the gulf between the two superpowers’ military capabilities. Despite its rapid investment in recent decades, China does not possess an army like the United States that can project power in any part of the world.

但对伊朗的袭击也暴露了两个超级大国军事实力的差距。尽管中国近几十年快速投入军力建设，却尚未拥有像美国那样、能在全球任何地方投射力量的军队。

That rankles Beijing, said Dylan Loh, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, because it means no country — not even China — can stop the United States from taking whatever action it wants.

新加坡南洋理工大学中国外交政策专家骆明辉表示，这让北京感到刺痛——因为这意味着没有任何国家能阻止美国为所欲为，哪怕中国也不例外。

“The demonstration of raw, hard power is something that will worry Beijing,” Mr. Loh said.

“这种赤裸裸的硬实力展示，会让北京感到担忧，”骆明辉说。

People on social media in China and the West can’t stop comparing Alysa Liu and Eileen Gu, two of the biggest stars at the Winter Olympics. It’s hard not to. Both were born and raised in the Bay Area. Both have a parent from China. Both are sports prodigies.

中美社交媒体上的网民热衷于将冬奥会最闪耀的两颗明星——刘美贤和谷爱凌进行对比。这确实很难避免：两人都在湾区出生长大，都是体育神童，父母中都有一方来自中国。

In Milan, Ms. Liu, 20, became the first American in 24 years to win gold in women’s figure skating, and she added a second gold in the team event. Ms. Gu, 22, won one gold and two silvers in freestyle skiing.

在米兰冬奥赛场，20岁的刘美贤成为24年来首位夺得女子花样滑冰金牌的美国人，她还在团体赛中随队获得了一枚金牌。22岁的谷爱凌则在自由式滑雪项目中摘得一金两银。

The difference: Ms. Liu, whose father was a Tiananmen-era dissident who fled China for the United States in 1989, was on Team U.S.A. Ms. Gu, who obtained a Chinese passport in 2019, chose to represent China.

不同之处在于：刘美贤的父亲是天安门事件时期的异见人士，于1989年逃往美国，她代表美国队参赛；谷爱凌于2019年获得中国护照，选择代表中国出战。

In the United States, many people celebrated Ms. Liu’s performance as a win for liberty, while some, like the former National Basketball Association player Enes Kanter Freedom and various conservative media figures, have called Ms. Gu a traitor. Several politicians have accused her of supporting America’s adversary.

在美国，许多人将刘美贤的表现赞誉为自由的胜利；前NBA球员埃内斯·坎特·自由和各类保守派媒体人士则斥责谷爱凌为叛徒。几位政治人士甚至指责她支持美国的对手。

On the Chinese internet, the treatment of the two women was largely reversed. On the Chinese social media platform Weibo, for instance, a user based in Guangdong commented, “Eileen Gu is a hero of China while Alysa Liu is a descendant of an anti-China figure.”

在中国互联网上，对两人的评价完全反转。例如，在社交平台微博上，一名广东用户评论道：“谷爱凌是中国的英雄，刘美贤是反华分子的后代。”

The reaction is both unfortunate and predictable. As the United States and China intensify a geopolitical rivalry that could determine global leadership deep into the 21st century, nationalism on both sides has intensified.

这种反应既令人遗憾，又在预料之中。随着中美两国可能决定21世纪全球领导权的地缘政治竞争愈演愈烈，双方的民族主义情绪也随之升温。

The uncomfortable comparison so many are making between Ms. Liu and Ms. Gu speaks to more than sport. It exposes questions of heritage, loyalty and identity, thrusting the two athletes into the politics of both countries. Much of the commentary is a proxy for rival nationalism: on the American side, increasingly vocal demands that immigrants prove their allegiance; on the Chinese side, an insistence that Chinese ethnicity demands loyalty and that dissent is betrayal.

许多人对刘美贤和谷爱凌进行这种令人不适的对比，其意义已超出了体育本身。它揭示了关于血统、忠诚和身份认同的问题，将两名运动员推向了两国的政治风口浪尖。许多评论已成为对抗性民族主义的代名词：在美国，要求移民证明忠诚的呼声日益高涨；中国则坚持认为华裔血统就必须效忠，异见即是背叛。

The Chinese Communist Party has long advanced an ethnonationalist idea of belonging: that people of Chinese descent, wherever they reside and whatever passport they hold, remain part of the Chinese nation. Under Xi Jinping, who took full power in 2013, this principle has strengthened: Ethnicity has become a bond that carries expectations of loyalty.

中国共产党长期推行一种血缘民族主义的归属观：无论华裔身处何方、持有何种护照，始终是中华民族的一部分。在2013年全面掌权的习近平领导下，这一原则得到了强化：族裔身份已成为一种承载忠诚期待的纽带。

刘美贤在米兰滑冰场参加训练。

Many Chinese people, in and outside the country, who criticize or question official Beijing positions, not only political activists but journalists, too, are invariably labeled sellouts or worse.

无论身处国内还是海外，许多批评或质疑北京官方立场的华人——不仅是政治活动人士，连记者也不例外——无不被贴上卖国贼或更难听的标签。

This is worth keeping in mind when Americans call Ms. Gu a traitor. They’re borrowing the Chinese Communist Party’s vocabulary and adopting its framework of birthplace loyalty.

当美国人称谷爱凌为叛徒时，这一点值得警惕：他们借用了中国共产党的词汇，并采纳了那种“出生地效忠”的框架。

The ethnonationalist philosophy also explains the scale of China’s investment in athletes of Chinese heritage. Of the 48 players on China’s men’s and women’s Olympic hockey teams in 2022, 22 were naturalized athletes with Chinese lineage.

这种血缘民族主义理念也解释了中国在华裔运动员上的巨大投入。在2022年冬奥中国男女冰球队的48名球员中，有22名是华裔归化运动员。

Ms. Gu was the most visible example of this recruitment effort. When she switched to represent China in 2019, she became a geopolitical asset for Beijing.

谷爱凌是这一招募行动中最显眼的例子。当她在2019年转而代表中国参赛时，她便成为了北京的地缘政治资产。

A Beijing city government document published last year showed that the municipal sports bureau planned to pay Ms. Gu and one other American-born athlete competing for China a combined $14 million over three years. Their names were later scrubbed from the record after it drew public criticism. The episode offered a rare glimpse into how the state invests in athletic success as a form of soft power.

去年发布的一份北京市政府文件显示，市体育局曾计划在三年内向谷爱凌和另一位代表中国参赛的美籍华裔运动员支付近亿元人民币。在引起公众批评后，两人的名字随后从记录中被删除。这一插曲让人罕见地窥见中国如何将体育成功作为一种软实力进行投资。

If Ms. Gu’s case illustrates how the state embraces certain members of the Chinese diaspora, Ms. Liu’s family story illustrated how it treats others.

如果说谷爱凌的案例说明了中国如何接纳某一些海外华人，刘美贤的家族故事则说明了它如何对待另一些群体。

谷爱凌在奥运会前进行训练。

Her father, Arthur Liu, was a student activist who ended up on the government’s most wanted list after the Tiananmen crackdown. He fled to the United States, became a lawyer and raised five children as a single father. Alysa is the oldest. She started skating at 5 and became national champion at 13. Mr. Liu said in media interviews that he had been approached about having Alysa represent China but declined out of concerns about the country’s human rights record.

她的父亲刘俊曾是一名学生领袖，在天安门镇压后被列入政府头号通缉名单。他逃往美国成为一名律师，并作为单身父亲抚养了五个孩子，刘美贤是长女。她五岁开始滑冰，13岁便成为全美冠军。刘俊在媒体采访中表示，曾有人接洽希望刘美贤代表中国参赛，但他因担忧该国的人权记录而拒绝了。

Before the 2022 Beijing Olympics, it was reported at the time, U.S. authorities informed Mr. Liu that he and Alysa were targets of a Chinese government-linked surveillance and harassment effort. The U.S. government provided protection for Alysa during the games. She was 16. It was her first trip to China.

据当时的报道，在2022年北京冬奥会前，美国当局告知刘俊，他和刘美贤成为与中国政府有关联的监视和骚扰行动的目标。美国政府在比赛期间为刘美贤提供了保护。那时她16岁，是第一次来到中国。

Mr. Liu also said he had learned that Beijing was aware that his daughter had once posted an Instagram message about the government’s crackdown on the ethnic minority Uyghurs in China.

刘俊还表示，他获悉北京方面知道他的女儿曾在Instagram上发布过一条关于政府镇压中国少数民族维吾尔人的消息。

When Ms. Liu won gold medals in Milan, she became a problem that China’s censorship apparatus could not quite solve. Praise for her skating on the internet in China was often followed by vague warnings, usually from commenters, to “look up her family background and political orientation.” They couldn’t be more specific and had to resort to euphemisms and coded language because references to June 4, 1989, the date of the Tiananmen massacre, are heavily censored. She is sometimes called a “second-generation anti-China figure.”

当刘美贤在米兰赢得金牌时，她成了中国审查机构无法彻底解决的一个麻烦。中国互联网上，对她滑冰技术的赞美往往伴随着模糊的警告，评论者通常提醒人们去“查查她的家庭背景和政治取向”。他们无法说得更具体，只能借助于委婉语和暗号，因为对1989年6月4日天安门事件这一日期的提及是被严厉审查的。她有时被称为“反华二代”。

If parts of China struggle with how to absorb Ms. Liu’s story, parts of the United States struggle to understand Ms. Gu’s. Their underlying logic — that identity carries duty — sounds familiar to the ears of many Chinese.

如果说中国部分群体难以接纳刘美贤的故事，美国部分群体也难以理解谷爱凌的故事。但他们的底层逻辑——身份承载着义务——对许多中国人来说听起来非常耳熟。

At the same time, some on the American political left risk flattening all criticism of Ms. Gu as racism, sidestepping questions about how authoritarian governments deploy athletes and soft power.

与此同时，美国政治左翼中的一些人将所有针对谷爱凌的批评都简化为种族主义，这带来一种风险——有可能回避了关于威权政府如何利用运动员和软实力的问题。

Ms. Gu grew up with feet in both worlds, but the rivalry between Washington and Beijing has narrowed the space for dual belonging.

谷爱凌在两个世界中长大，但华盛顿与北京之间的对抗挤压了这种双重归属的空间。

She spent most summers in Beijing, her mother’s hometown. She speaks fluent Mandarin Chinese and in 2019, at 15, became a naturalized Chinese citizen, joining Beijing’s effort to project national strength on the global stage. It proved to be a lucrative arrangement for both sides. Ms. Gu has won six Olympic medals for China and became one of the highest-earning female athletes in the world, with most of her sponsors being Chinese brands and global brands targeting the Chinese market.

她大部分夏天都在母亲的家乡北京度过。她能讲流利的普通话，并在2019年15岁时入籍成为中国公民，加入了北京向全球展示国家实力的行动。事实证明，这对双方都是一笔划算的买卖。谷爱凌为中国赢得了六枚奥运奖牌，成为世界上收入最高的女运动员之一，她的赞助商大多是中国品牌以及针对中国市场的全球品牌。

Ms. Gu has declined to comment on her citizenship status — Chinese law forbids dual citizenship — and on China’s human rights record. Time magazine asked her recently about the treatment of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang. She replied that she did not think it was her business to comment. She was not an expert, she said, and reaching a conclusion would require extensive research and a visit to the region in China.

谷爱凌一直拒绝评论她的国籍状态（中国法律禁止双重国籍）以及中国的人权记录。《时代》杂志最近询问她关于新疆维吾尔人的待遇问题。她回答说，她认为评价这些并非她的职责。她说自己不是专家，要得出结论需要进行广泛的研究并实地考察中国该地区。

Her response set off criticism from human rights activists. “Choosing who you represent is a personal decision. No one is a traitor for that,” wrote the Digital Citizens for Human Rights, an X account that focuses on China. “You don’t need to speak for power. But you cannot claim innocence while benefiting from it.”

她的回应引发了人权活动人士的批评。关注中国的X账号“数字公民”写道：“选择代表谁是个人的决定，没人因此就是叛徒。你不需要为权力发声，但不能在受益于权力时声称自己清白无辜。”

Even on Chinese social media, Ms. Gu is a divisive figure. While many Chinese people hail her as a hero and address her adoringly as the “snow princess,” some criticize her for having the privilege of being “a part-time Chinese” — being Chinese when it is profitable and American when it is convenient.

即使在中国社交媒体上，谷爱凌也是一个充满争议的人物。虽然许多中国人尊称她为英雄，亲切地称她为“冰雪公主”，但也有人批评她拥有“兼职中国人”的特权——在有利可图时做中国人，在方便时做美国人。

“She gets to have it both ways. Must be nice,” one commenter wrote on Weibo, the Chinese internet platform.

“她两家通吃。一定很棒吧，”有人在微博上写道。

Authoritarian politics and military aggression are a dangerous mix. As President Trump announced his war on Iran wearing a baseball cap in a video released in the early hours Saturday morning while he was at Mar-a-Lago, that lesson hung heavily over the proceedings. This was a decision made by one man with no legal basis, little public support and no coherent explanation of an endgame.

威权政治与军事侵略是一种危险的组合。周六凌晨，戴着棒球帽的特朗普总统在佛罗里达州马阿拉歌庄园发布视频，宣布对伊朗开战，这一教训沉重地笼罩着整个过程。这是由一人作出的决定，没有法律依据，缺乏公众支持，也没有对最终目标作出前后一致的解释。

Within a few months, Mr. Trump has ordered the military to blow up boats in the Caribbean, abduct the leader of Venezuela and decapitate the government of Iran. The absence of any congressional authorization or campaign to prepare the American people feels intentional. We are not meant to think too much about the basis for action, how much it costs or what happens after the spectacle of bombs falling. Before we digest the last operation, there is the threat of a new one. The dizzying nature of these actions makes them seem routine.

在短短几个月里，特朗普下令军方在加勒比海炸毁船只，绑架委内瑞拉领导人，斩首伊朗政府。他的行动没有任何国会授权，也没有开展让美国人民有所准备的宣传活动，这种缺失让人感觉是刻意为之。他们刻意让我们不要去深究行动的依据、代价，或者炸弹落下的震撼场面之后会发生什么。我们还没消化完上一次行动，新的威胁就已经出现。这种令人目眩的节奏使这些行动显得仿佛稀松平常。

But something has shifted. Mr. Trump now regularly uses the military as an extension of his personal instincts. He may try to keep the operation short. That won’t stave off the consequences. Whatever happens in the coming weeks, the United States has extended its post-9/11 forever war into Iran, an act that will reverberate across the Middle East for years to come.

但情况已经发生变化。特朗普现在经常将军队用作他个人本能的延伸。他可能会试图让行动保持短促。但这无法避免后果。无论未来几周发生什么，美国已将后“9·11”时代无休无止的战争延伸到了伊朗，这一举动将在未来数年里在整个中东地区产生严重影响。

The immediate questions concern the course of the war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was a brutal and repressive force in the lives of Iranians for decades. His demise hardly resolves the matter of who will control a country of more than 90 million people, particularly as the most heavily armed factions tend to be the most hard-line and are faced with a direct threat to their power and wealth.

眼前的问题关乎战争的走向。几十年来，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊一直是压迫伊朗人的一股残暴压制力量。他的死并不能解决谁来控制这个拥有9000多万人口国家的问题，尤其是那些武装最精良的派系往往最为强硬，他们正面临对其权力和财富的直接威胁。

The Iranian regime is weakened but still capable of inflicting damage. Strikes at U.S. military facilities and civilian targets from the Persian Gulf states to Israel suggest an initial strategy of trying to redistribute the violence and disruption wrought upon Iran to its neighbors. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping could bring those costs to the global economy. (Energy prices have already jumped.) Retaliatory cyberoperations, terrorism and proxy strikes could also come in waves.

伊朗政权虽然遭到削弱，但仍然具备造成破坏的能力。从波斯湾国家到以色列，对美国军事设施和民用目标的打击表明，伊朗的初步战略是把施加在它身上的暴力与破坏引向邻国。对能源基础设施和航运的攻击可能会把这些代价转嫁给全球经济。（能源价格已经上涨。）报复性的网络行动、恐怖主义以及代理人袭击也可能一波波袭来。

Mr. Trump’s only stated plan for regime change was a call for the Iranian people to rise up. Then what? Those who do may be massacred. Some version of the regime could still cling to power. Iran could devolve into civil conflict, as Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya did after the initially triumphant toppling of their leaders. Separatist movements among ethnic minorities could fracture the country and draw in neighboring states. Protracted violence or extreme poverty could lead to a surge of refugees into Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and ultimately Europe.

特朗普关于政权更迭唯一公开宣称的方案是呼吁伊朗人民起来反抗。然后呢？那些起义者可能会遭到屠杀。伊朗政权的某种形式仍可能顽强维持权力。伊朗也可能像阿富汗、伊拉克和利比亚那样，在其领导人最初被成功推翻后陷入内战。少数民族中的分离主义运动可能会导致国家分裂，并把邻国卷入其中。长期的暴力或极端贫困可能会导致难民涌入阿富汗、巴基斯坦、土耳其，最终流向欧洲。

There are, of course, better scenarios. A chastened regime could pursue some form of accommodation with America and evolution at home. Or perhaps Iran could buck the trend of nearly every other country from North Africa to South Asia that has undergone regime change this century and transition peacefully to a democratic form of government.

当然，也存在更好的可能。一个受挫的政权可能会寻求某种形式的对美妥协，并在国内推动渐进变革。或者，伊朗可能逆转本世纪从北非到南亚几乎所有经历政权更迭国家的趋势，实现向民主政体的和平过渡。

Mr. Trump will surely declare victory in Iran, just as he did last summer. But wars play out in the lives of people and nations, not news cycles. The 1953 U.S. and British-backed coup that enabled the shah to consolidate power in Iran appeared to be a victory, but it became part of the DNA of the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the Islamic republic that has bedeviled the United States ever since.

特朗普肯定会像去年夏天那样宣布在伊朗取得胜利。但战争的展开关乎人民和国家的生命，而不是新闻周期的更迭。1953年美英支持的政变使伊朗国王得以在伊朗巩固权力，当时这看似一场胜利，但它却成了1979年伊朗革命以及其后一直困扰美国的伊斯兰共和国的基因组成部分。

Even those who welcome the decapitation of the Iranian regime may feel deep unease about America’s behavior. The United States, like Israel, now seems to follow no rules, consult few allies and pay little regard to the destruction it leaves behind, including in the prosperous Arab gulf states. Like an empire of old, it demands tribute — be it Venezuelan oil or payments to the amorphous “Board of Peace.” Mr. Trump’s tariff policies, maximum pressure sanctions, episodic threats on Greenland and military action are experienced as a strategy of calculated chaos.

即使那些欢迎伊朗政权被斩首的人也可能对美国的行为深感不安。美国如今似乎和以色列一样，不遵循任何规则，很少咨询盟友意见，也很少顾及自己所留下的破坏，包括在富裕的阿拉伯海湾国家造成的影响。它像一个老牌帝国一样要求进贡——无论是委内瑞拉的石油，还是向说不清道不明的和平委员会付款。特朗普的关税政策、极限施压制裁、对格陵兰的间歇性威胁以及军事行动都被视为一种蓄意制造混乱的策略。

What lessons will nations draw from this new reality? For would-be nuclear powers, it is that North Korea’s arsenal brought security that Iran’s negotiations could not. For Russia and China, it is that might makes right. For our European allies, it is that the United States is an unpredictable force that could again threaten Greenland or meddle in their internal politics at any moment. The old U.S.-led order is dead. The new one feels unstable and ominous, as if a storm could descend at any moment.

各国会从这一新现实中汲取什么教训？对于潜在的核国家来说，教训是朝鲜的核武库带来了伊朗靠谈判无法实现的安全。对于俄罗斯和中国来说，教训是强权即公理。对于我们的欧洲盟友来说，教训是美国是一个不可预测的力量，可能随时再次威胁格陵兰，或干涉它们的内政。由美国主导的旧秩序已经终结。新的秩序则显得不稳定且让人不安，仿佛风暴随时可能降临。

Mr. Trump probably would not have become president without his stated opposition to forever wars; it is a feature, not a bug, of MAGA. Yet in his return to the presidency, he has proved to be far more interested in power itself. Setting aside the risks outlined above, this dynamic alone should compel stronger and sustained Democratic opposition to this war.

特朗普之所以能当选总统，很大程度上正是因为他公开反对永无休止的战争；这是“让美国再次伟大”运动的特征，而非缺陷。然而在重返总统职位后，他展现出对权力本身更强烈的渴求。即便撇开上文概述的风险不谈，这种趋势本身也足以促使民主党对这场战争进行更强烈且持续的反对。

Rather than representing a break from America’s imperial instincts, Mr. Trump has personalized them. There is no reason to believe he won’t lash out militarily again. (How many Americans even know we bombed Nigeria on Christmas Day?) Cuba is currently being starved by a blockade, despite posing no danger to U.S. national security.

特朗普并未摒弃美国的帝国主义倾向，而是将其个人化了。没有理由相信他不会再次动用军事手段。（有多少美国人知道我们在圣诞节轰炸了尼日利亚？）古巴目前正因封锁而挨饿，尽管它并未对美国国家安全构成威胁。

After 25 years of constant war, there is little appetite for this kind of adventurism among the American people. The operations around Venezuela and in Iran are both estimated to cost at least several billion dollars, with more to come. That is not how American taxpayers want their money spent amid a cost-of-living crisis, deep cuts to the social safety net and exploding deficits.

在经历了25年的持续战争之后，美国人民对这种冒险主义已提不起什么兴致。据估计，围绕委内瑞拉的行动以及在伊朗的行动都将至少耗资数十亿美元，后续还会有更多支出。在生活成本危机、社会保障体系大幅削减以及赤字激增的情况下，美国纳税人可不希望他们的钱被这样花掉。

More profoundly, the way Mr. Trump has deployed the newly minted Department of War abroad should raise concerns about what he might do with the military at home. Already he has tried to send troops into American cities but faced judicial pushback. He has mused about invoking the Insurrection Act, which would grant him emergency powers to deploy the military to enforce laws within the United States. Whether in response to peaceful protests or an election loss, this would put American democracy into dangerous territory.

更深层次来看，特朗普在海外动用新成立的战争部的方式应该引发人们对他可能在国内如何动用军队的担忧。他已尝试派遣军队进入美国城市，但遇到了司法阻碍。他考虑过援引《反叛乱法》，这将授予他动用军队在美国境内执法的紧急权力。无论是为了应对和平抗议还是选举失利，这都将把美国民主推入危险境地。

If these scenarios seem fanciful, consider what has already happened. Mr. Trump addressed general officers and suggested that U.S. cities become military training grounds. He called for the imprisonment of a handful of Democratic members of Congress for suggesting that service members should not follow illegal orders. And last week he ordered the government to stop using the services of the artificial intelligence company Anthropic because it refused to allow the Pentagon to have unfettered access to its technology for the mass surveillance of Americans.

如果这些情景听起来像是天方夜谭，不妨想想已经发生的事。特朗普曾对将官们发表讲话，表示美国城市可以成为军事训练场。他呼吁将几名民主党国会议员投入监狱，只因他们主张军人不应服从非法命令。上周，他还命令政府停止使用人工智能公司Anthropic的服务，因为该公司拒绝让五角大楼对其技术拥有不受限制的访问权，以便对美国人进行大规模监控。

We must not be numbed to the repeated, illegal use of the United States military. Nor should we discount what Mr. Trump’s extension of the forever war is doing to us.

我们不能对反复非法使用美国军队的行为麻木不仁。我们也不应低估特朗普将永久战争扩大化对我们造成的影响。

Foundational questions are at stake for Americans. Do we want to continue forever wars financed with borrowed money and fought by service members whose sacrifices stand in stark contrast to the cowardice of our billionaire class? Do we want to regularly bomb other countries while endangering the lives of millions of human beings by dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development? Do we want to remain in a permanent state of war that migrates from one place to another while rampant inequality and revolutionary technologies remake our communities with little resistance?

一些关乎根本的问题正摆在美国人面前。我们是否要继续打这种用借来的钱资助、由军人承担牺牲的永久战争？而这些牺牲与我们亿万富豪阶层的怯懦形成鲜明对比。我们是否要一边频繁轰炸其他国家，一边通过削弱美国国际开发署而危及数百万人的生命？肆虐的不平等和革命性的技术正在重塑我们的社区，却几乎未遇任何阻力，我们是否希望维持在一种永久战争状态，任凭战火从一个地方蔓延到另一个地方？

Mr. Trump’s authoritarianism is not abstract. There is nothing stopping him from wielding the awesome power of the United States to serve his own interests, not the public’s. War should never be normal. We don’t know where this one will lead, but we do know that it has already killed untold civilians — including dozens of girls who did nothing but go to school. The desensitization of Americans to this kind of violence is part of what is broken in our society.

特朗普的威权主义并非抽象概念。没有什么能阻止他运用美国的强大国家力量来服务于他的个人利益，而非公共利益。战争绝不应成为常态。我们不知道这场战争将走向何方，但我们知道它已经造成了无数平民死亡——其中包括数十名只是去上学的女孩。美国人对这种暴力逐渐麻木本身就是我们社会失序的一部分。

By aligning themselves with public opinion, the Constitution and a sense of shared humanity at home and abroad, Democrats can offer an alternative vision to the forever war. The just and lasting peace that most Americans seek is one in which government responds to their problems, rather than constantly looking for regimes to change or enemies, whether foreign or domestic, to crush.

如果民主党能够顺应民意、坚守宪法原则，并秉持对国内外共同人性的尊重，他们就可以为永久战争提供一种替代愿景。大多数美国人所追求的公正而持久的和平是一种政府能够回应他们问题的和平，而不是不断寻找要更迭的政权或要粉碎的内外敌人的和平。

The quiet luxury of Dubai’s high-priced hotels and resorts was punctured this weekend as Iran aimed hundreds of missiles and drones at targets across the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for the Israeli-U.S. attack.

这个周末，迪拜昂贵的酒店和度假村的宁静奢华被打破，伊朗针对阿联酋各目标发射了大量导弹和无人机，以报复以色列和美国的袭击。

Videos posted online showed fires at five-star hotels like the Jumeirah Burj Al Arab and the Fairmont Dubai, and passengers scrambling to evacuate Dubai International Airport — one of the world’s busiest — after an explosion on a concourse injured four people.

网上发布的视频显示，五星级酒店如朱美拉帆船酒店和迪拜费尔蒙酒店起火，乘客们急匆匆地撤离迪拜国际机场——世界上最繁忙的机场之一，此前这里的一个大厅发生爆炸，造成四人受伤。

In Abu Dhabi, one person died and seven were injured by debris from a drone that targeted Zayed International Airport. In Iran, Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East, hundreds of people have died during the ongoing conflict.

在阿布扎比，一架针对扎耶德国际机场的无人机的碎片导致一人死亡、7人受伤。在伊朗、以色列以及中东其他地区，持续冲突已造成数百人死亡。

The hostilities have come as a shock to tourists, who visit the United Arab Emirates not only for the Michelin-star dining, hospitality, shopping and beaches, but also for the Emirates’ reputation as a safe destination in a volatile region. Dubai, ranked among the top 10 destinations in the world, welcomed 19.59 million tourists last year, a 5 percent increase over its previous record year in 2024, according to data published by the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism.

这些敌对行动让游客震惊，他们前往阿联酋不仅仅是为了米其林星级餐饮、好客的氛围、购物和海滩，还因为阿联酋在动荡地区被视为安全目的地。根据迪拜经济与旅游局发布的数据，迪拜去年位列全球前10大目的地，接待了1959万游客，比2024年的创纪录年份增长5%。

Airports in the region have become major hubs for passengers traveling to India, Africa and Asia. In 2025, more than 33 million passengers passed through Abu Dhabi’s five airports, a record.

该地区的机场已成为前往印度、非洲和亚洲乘客的主要枢纽。2025年，阿布扎比的五个机场旅客吞吐量超过3300万人次，创下纪录。

The airstrikes forced the closure of airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, Qatar. Now, as the fighting continues, hundreds of thousands of tourists and business travelers are struggling to book flights home. At least 11,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled since Saturday, and one million travelers have been affected by the disruption so far, according to Cirium, an aviation data firm.

空袭迫使迪拜、阿布扎比和卡塔尔多哈的机场关闭。现在，随着战斗继续，数十万旅游和出差的乘客正努力预订回程航班。据航空数据公司Cirium称，自周六以来，中东进出航班至少取消了1.1万架次，已影响100万旅客。

A limited number of flights were scheduled to depart Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports on Monday.

周一，仅有数量有限的航班计划从迪拜和阿布扎比机场起飞。

Emirates, the region’s largest carrier, said on social media that it would prioritize stranded customers with canceled bookings. The announcement was met by hundreds of responses from panicked passengers wondering how they could get on a flight.

该地区最大航空公司阿联酋航空在社交媒体上表示，将优先处理那些预订被取消的滞留客户。这一公告引发数百名惊慌乘客的回复，纷纷询问如何登机。

‘No Certainty Right Now’

“目前什么都不确定”

周一，迪拜国际机场空空如也的到达区。

Dubai International is the world’s busiest airport for international travel, with more than 95 million passengers last year. Abu Dhabi’s airport and Hamad International Airport in Qatar are also among the largest international hubs, said Henry Harteveldt, an aviation industry analyst for Atmosphere Research. He said the conflict would ripple out to airports worldwide and could chill international travel plans.

Atmosphere Research的航空业分析师亨利·哈特维尔德表示，迪拜国际机场是全球最繁忙的国际旅行机场，去年客运量超过9500万人次。阿布扎比机场和卡塔尔哈马德国际机场也是最大的国际枢纽之一。他表示，此次冲突将波及全球机场，并可能令国际旅行计划降温。

“There is no certainty right now about when the fighting will end and when it will be deemed safe for commercial flights to resume,” Mr. Harteveldt said. “Clearly, there’s going to be a lot of concern, legitimate concern, in consumers’ minds about whether they should travel through those airports, at least in the immediate aftermath of the fighting.”

“目前什么都不确定，不知道战斗何时结束，不知道何时才能恢复商业飞行的安全环境，”哈特维尔德说，“显然，消费者心中会产生大量合理的担忧，至少在战斗刚结束的一段时间内，他们会疑虑是否应该经由这些机场旅行。”

Vishwas Gowda, a 23-year-old engineer who lives in Bengaluru, India, had planned for a nine-hour layover in Dubai. On Saturday morning, he was on an Emirates flight from Dubai to San Francisco when news of the airspace closures hit, and the plane turned around. Back in Dubai, it was “complete chaos and confusion,” he said, with long lines throughout the airport and “no clear next steps.”

23岁的维什瓦斯·高达是一名住在印度班加罗尔的工程师，他原计划在迪拜中转停留九小时。周六早上，当空域关闭的消息传来时，他正坐在从迪拜飞往旧金山的阿联酋航空飞机上，随后飞机被迫返航。他说，回到迪拜后，机场“完全陷入了混乱和迷惑”，到处排着长队，“没有明确的后续安排。”

The airline still hasn’t contacted him about when he can fly to San Francisco or back home to India, he said.

他表示，航空公司至今仍未联系他，告知何时能飞往旧金山或返回印度。

“I can’t believe there is no way for us to get out,” said Chresida Elston, a British tourist who is on vacation with her husband and two children at the Mandarin Oriental in Dubai. “It’s so surreal to be going to the beach and pretending we’re having a normal holiday to the children when there are explosions in the sky and you have no idea where the next missile will land,” she said in a phone interview.

“我不敢相信我们竟然没办法离开，”英国游客克雷西达·埃尔斯顿说，她正和丈夫及两个孩子在迪拜文华东方酒店度假。“这太超现实了，当天空中有爆炸声，你根本不知道下一枚导弹会落在哪里时，我们还要在海滩上向孩子们假装在度过一个正常的假期，”她在电话采访中说道。

On Saturday, emergency alerts sent to cellphones warned of potential missile threats. Tourists shared videos of themselves and others in hotel basements; on Sunday, they were advised to stay indoors.

周六，手机发出的紧急警报警告了潜在的导弹威胁。游客们分享了自己和其他人躲在酒店地下室的视频；周日，他们被建议待在室内。

Covered Costs

费用承担

The United Arab Emirates announced on Sunday that it would cover accommodation costs for stranded visitors. The General Civil Aviation Authority said it was picking up the tab for meals and accommodation for more than 20,000 passengers who were unable to leave over the weekend.

阿拉伯联合酋长国周日宣布，将承担滞留游客的住宿费用。民航总局表示，正在为周末无法离境的2万多名乘客支付餐饮和住宿账单。

周日，一枚被拦截的飞行物落入迪拜朱美拉棕榈岛群附近的海域。

The Ministry of Defense of the United Arab Emirates said on Monday that 174 ballistic missiles had been launched toward the country since the start of the attack on Saturday. Additionally, 689 Iranian drones were detected, with 645 intercepted and 44 falling within the country’s territory. Several cruise missiles had been intercepted, and the resulting debris caused damage. The attacks resulted in three deaths and 68 minor injuries.

阿联酋国防部周一表示，自周六袭击开始以来，已有174枚弹道导弹向该国发射。此外还探测到689架伊朗无人机，其中645架被拦截，44架落在该国境内。多枚巡航导弹被拦截，产生的碎片造成了破坏。袭击导致三人死亡，68人轻伤。

Members of the travel industry downplayed the situation, saying that the incidents of falling debris were isolated.

旅游业从业人员试图淡化事态，称碎片坠落只是孤立案例。

“Dubai has long been recognized for its infrastructure resilience, governance and crisis response capabilities,” said Ali Asgar Hussain, the managing director of Turning Point Tourism, a Dubai-based travel company.

迪拜旅游公司Turning Point Tourism董事总经理阿里·阿斯加尔·侯赛因表示：“迪拜长期以来因其基础设施的韧性、治理能力和危机应对能力而受到认可。”

“Things remain calm, and people are getting on with their daily lives as best they can,” said Ahmed Soliman, the managing director of Travel Connections Arabia, a consulting firm.

咨询公司Travel Connections Arabia的董事总经理艾哈迈德·苏莱曼说：“局势始终是稳定的，人们正在尽力继续日常生活。”

On Monday, the atmosphere across Dubai was calm. While some tourists ventured out, many decided to stay in their hotels.

周一，迪拜各地的气氛很平静。虽然有些游客冒险外出，但许多人选择留在酒店内。

Some people are relying on private security firms to help them leave Dubai by land to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Muscat, Oman, where private and commercial planes are operating.

一些人正依靠私人安保公司帮助，通过陆路离开迪拜前往沙特阿拉伯的利雅得和阿曼的马斯喀特，那里的私人和商业飞机仍在运营。

“Our approach is straightforward: GPS-tracked ground transport running 24/7 from Dubai to open land borders,” said Rafal Hyps, chief executive of the global risk management firm Sicuro Group. He said the company had assisted about 1,000 people, “including employees of major multinational companies, family offices and individual travelers.”

全球风险管理公司Sicuro Group的首席执行官拉法尔·希普斯表示：“我们的方法很简单：提供七天24小时全天候GPS跟踪的地面运输，从迪拜通往开放的陆路口岸。”他说，公司已协助约1000人，“包括大型跨国公司的员工、家族办公室和个人旅行者。”

He declined to specify the cost of getting out overland, but said it was “comparable to the price of an international air ticket.”

他拒绝透露陆路撤离的具体费用，但表示“与国际机票价格相当”。

While a limited number of flights departed from the United Arab Emirates on Monday, there was no information on whether flights would operate on Tuesday. The government urged passengers not to travel to the airport unless their flight was confirmed.

虽然周一有少量航班从阿联酋起飞，但尚无周二是否运营的信息。政府敦促乘客，除非航班已确认，否则不要前往机场。

周一，在周末的袭击过后，一些游客和居民开始冒险外出。上图为迪拜码头附近海滩上的日光浴者。

“Normally, I would not mind being stuck in Dubai. It’s beautiful here, and there is so much to do,” said Lara Riva, an Italian tourist in Dubai whose flight home was canceled on Sunday. “But this is a very different situation.”

“通常情况下，我不介意被困在迪拜。这里很美，有那么多事可以做，”意大利游客劳拉·里瓦说，她回程的航班在周日被取消了。“但现在的情况完全不同。”

Rebecca Clothey, 57, a professor at Drexel University in Philadelphia who was stranded in Abu Dhabi over the weekend, was looking into options to drive to the nearest operating international airport, more than five hours away in Oman, when Etihad Airways rebooked her on a flight to Bengaluru, where she had been scheduled to arrive two days earlier.

57岁的丽贝卡·克洛西是费城德雷塞尔大学的一名教授，周末被困在阿布扎比。就在她考虑开车五小时前往阿曼境内最近的一个仍在运营的国际机场时，阿提哈德航空给她改签了一个飞往班加罗尔的航班——按照原来的计划，她应该在两天前抵达那里。

In an interview from her taxi after landing, she said that she wasn’t sure how she was selected for that flight but that only every other seat was occupied.

降落后，她在出租车里接受采访时说，她不确定自己是如何被选中改签那趟航班的，但飞机上每隔一个座位才坐一个人。

In Abu Dhabi, she said, she had been put up at the Grand Millennium Al Wahda, a five-star hotel, where the Emirati government covered all her expenses. Looking back on the experience, she added, “I was treated really well. But you’re thinking, ‘Am I going to be here a week? Is this situation going to get worse? I mean, how am I going to get out?’”

她说自己被安置在五星级的阿布扎比大禧年阿尔华达酒店，阿联酋政府承担了所有费用。回想起这段经历，她补充道：“我受到了很好的对待。但你心里会想，‘我要在这里待一周吗？情况会恶化吗？我到底该怎么离开？’”

The United States and Israel opened their war on Iran this weekend with a sudden strike on its longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While the war as a whole has been broadly denounced as illegal by critics who point to its lack of authorization from Congress or the United Nations Security Council, the ayatollah’s killing raises particular legal questions.

周末，美国与以色列对伊朗发动战争，突袭该国多年的最高领袖哈梅内伊。这场战争本身已被批评者普遍谴责为非法，他们指出其未获美国国会或联合国安理会授权，但击毙哈梅内伊一事引发了尤为特殊的法律疑问。

It is extraordinarily rare for a country to deliberately and openly kill the leader of another sovereign nation — even during legally uncontested wars. As a result, the question has rarely come up. A very rare precedent of sorts came in March 2003, when the Bush administration tried to kill Saddam Hussein on the cusp of the Iraq war, a conflict Congress had authorized — but that airstrike missed its target.

一国蓄意、公开地杀死另一个主权国家领导人的情况极为罕见——即便在法律上无争议的战争中也是如此。因此，相关法律问题极少出现。一个勉强算得上的罕见先例发生在2003年3月，布什政府在伊拉克战争爆发前夕试图击毙萨达姆·侯赛因（那场战争获得了国会授权），但空袭并未命中目标。

Asked for a detailed description of its legal views on the issue, the White House said in a statement that President Trump had “exercised his authority as commander in chief to defend U.S. personnel and bases in the region.” It described decades of misdeeds by Iran but did not specifically address the killing of its leader.

当被要求详细说明政府在这一问题上的法律立场时，白宫在一份声明中表示，特朗普总统“为保护该地区美方人员及基地而行使了最高统帅权”。声明列举了伊朗数十年来的恶行，但并未专门就击毙伊朗领导人一事作出法律解释。

Here is a closer look.

以下是详细分析。

What happened?

发生了什么？

The United States under Mr. Trump and Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu jointly launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28 with a surprise strike on Iranian leadership, killing Ayatollah Khamenei, a hard-line Shiite cleric and Iran’s ruler for nearly four decades.

特朗普领导下的美国与内塔尼亚胡领导下的以色列于2月28日联合发动对伊朗的战争，突袭伊朗领导层，击毙担任伊朗最高领袖近四十年的强硬什叶派神职人员哈梅内伊。

The C.I.A. had been tracking his movements and passed his whereabouts to Israel, which carried out the strike that killed him, according to officials. The two countries are said to have moved up their plans for the war to take advantage of the window of opportunity.

据官员透露，美国中央情报局一直在追踪哈梅内伊的行踪，并将其位置通报以色列，由以色列实施了致命打击。据称，美以两国为抓住这个短时间内出现的机会，提前了战争计划。

What was Khamenei’s status?

哈梅内伊的身份是什么？

The ayatollah was a civilian — not a uniformed member of the Iranian military — but he was also the supreme leader of Iran’s armed forces, just as Mr. Trump is a civilian who is also the commander in chief of the American military. This hybrid status creates a complication.

哈梅内伊是文职人员，并非伊朗军队现役军人，但他同时是伊朗武装部队最高领袖，正如特朗普身为文职却也是美军总司令一样。这种双重身份造成了法律上的复杂性。

It is generally agreed that in wartime, a country’s military commanders are lawful targets. It is also generally agreed that civilian officials with no military functions — like a health minister — are not lawful targets unless they are directly participating in hostilities.

普遍共识是，战争期间一国军事指挥官属于合法打击目标。同样普遍的共识是，不承担军事职能的文职官员——如卫生部长——不属于合法目标，除非他们直接参与敌对行动。

2024年，哈梅内伊在德黑兰发表演讲。

A civilian leader who commands a military force is a messier situation. Still, under the laws of armed conflict, a civilian leader who controls the military is likely to be a legitimate military target in an active war whether he is interpreted as being part of his country’s armed forces or as a civilian directly participating in hostilities, legal experts said.

指挥军队的文职领导人则处于更模糊的地带。但法律专家表示，根据武装冲突法，控制军队的文职领导人在实际战争中很可能属于合法军事目标，无论将其界定为该国武装力量一部分，还是直接参与敌对行动的文职人员。

What about targeting former leaders?

针对前领导人的打击如何界定？

Reports from Iran say an airstrike has also killed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who served as Iran’s president from 2005 until 2013. Based on the presently available facts, he would seem unambiguously to have been a civilian who was not directly participating in hostilities. It is not clear what legal theory would support any deliberate targeting of him as lawful.

 来自伊朗的报道称，2005年至2013年担任伊朗总统的马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德也在空袭中身亡。根据目前已知事实，他显然属于未直接参与敌对行动的文职人员。目前尚不清楚有何种法律理论可以支持将其蓄意列为打击目标的合法性。

When did the armed conflict begin?

武装冲突何时开始？

It began with the very strike that killed Ayatollah Khamenei, which complicates the question of whether he was a lawful military target at the time of the strike. In peacetime, it would be murder to kill a member of a foreign military or any government official who is not engaged in an imminent armed attack.

冲突始于击毙哈梅内伊的那次空袭本身，这使得判断他在遇袭时是否为合法军事目标的问题变得复杂。在和平时期，杀死未参与迫在眉睫的武装攻击的外国军人或政府官员均构成谋杀。

The United Nations Charter, a treaty the United States has ratified, provides that a nation may not use force on the sovereign territory of another country without its consent, a self-defense rationale or the authorization of the U.N. Security Council.

得到了美国批准的《联合国宪章》规定，除非经当事国同意、出于自卫理由或获得联合国安理会授权，任何国家不得在另一国主权领土使用武力。

周六德黑兰的爆炸。

“Whether or not an individual would be a lawful military target as a matter of the law of armed conflict, if the strike itself violates the U.N. Charter, that strike is illegal,” said Rebecca Ingber, a professor at the Cardozo School of Law and a former senior State Department lawyer. “A state can’t backfill a justification for killing a head of state by unlawfully starting an armed conflict.”

“无论根据武装冲突法，某个人是否属于合法军事目标，如果袭击本身违反《联合国宪章》，那么这次袭击就是非法的，”卡多佐法学院教授、前国务院高级律师丽贝卡·英格伯说。“一个国家不能先非法发动武装冲突，事后再为杀死他国国家元首寻找正当理由。”

Was there an ‘imminent’ threat?

是否存在“迫在眉睫”的威胁？

To invoke self-defense, the U.N. Charter requires there to be an armed attack. Customary international law broadly accepts that this includes a right to use force against an imminent threat of an armed attack, which in turn raises the question of what counts as imminent.

《联合国宪章》规定，援引自卫权需存在武装攻击行为。国际法惯例上大致承认，这包括对迫在眉睫的武装攻击威胁使用武力的权利，而这又引出何为“迫在眉睫”的问题。

Since the attack, the Trump administration has gestured toward two versions of this argument. One appears to rely on a very elastic definition, and one arguably appeared to rely on circular reasoning.

袭击发生后，特朗普政府提出了两种版本的相关理由。一种似乎依赖非常弹性的定义，另一种则被认为属于循环论证。

In a video on Saturday, Mr. Trump declared that the objective was “to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” But he did not suggest that Iran was on the cusp of launching an armed attack before the strikes, instead saying it would be intolerable to allow it to build a nuclear weapon and long-range missiles.

特朗普在周六的一段视频中宣称，行动目标是“通过消除伊朗政权带来的迫在眉睫的威胁，来保卫美国人民”。但他并未表明伊朗在袭击前即将发动武装攻击，而是声称绝不能容忍伊朗发展核武器与远程导弹。

On Monday, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, told reporters that “there absolutely was an imminent threat.” He said the United States believed Israel was going to attack Iran, and if it did so, Iran would attack American bases, so the country joined Israel’s attack “proactively, in a defensive way, to prevent them from inflicting higher damage.”

周一，国务卿兼国家安全顾问鲁比奥对记者表示，“绝对存在迫在眉睫的威胁。”他称，美国认为以色列将攻击伊朗，而一旦以色列动手，伊朗就会袭击美军基地，因此美国“以预防性、防御性的方式”加入以色列的袭击，“以防止伊朗造成更大破坏。”

美国国务卿鲁比奥周一在国会大厦向国会领导人通报伊朗袭击事件前。

Does the administration care about international law?

本届政府是否在意国际法？

There is reason to believe it does not care about this part of it.

有理由认为，政府在这方面并不在意。

The American military’s invasion of Venezuela in January to arrest President Nicolás Maduro also appears to have violated the U.N. Charter. But a memo by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel said the charter did not matter for the purposes of that operation. It cited past opinions by executive branch lawyers who claimed that as a matter of domestic law, the president has constitutional power to act in ways that conflict with the Charter.

今年1月，美军入侵委内瑞拉逮捕总统马杜罗，此举同样似乎违反《联合国宪章》。但司法部法律顾问办公室的一份备忘录称，该行动无需考虑宪章条款。备忘录援引了行政部门律师过往的观点，称根据美国国内法，总统拥有采取与《宪章》相抵触的行动的宪法权力。

Does it matter which country killed Khamenei?

由哪国击毙哈梅内伊是否重要？

Not under the doctrine of state responsibility, if reporting about the behind-the-scenes decision-making is accurate. According to the doctrine, if a country knowingly helps another nation commit a violation of international law, both are considered culpable for the wrongful act. By that logic, if killing the ayatollah was unlawful, and if the United States knew or intended for Israel to target him when it passed along his location, the United States shares legal responsibility.

如果有关幕后决策的报道属实，则不属于国家责任原则范畴。根据这一原则，如果一国故意协助另一国实施违反国际法的行为，两国均应对该不法行为承担责任。按照这一逻辑，如果击毙哈梅内伊属于非法行为，且美国在向以色列通报其位置时知晓或意图让以色列将哈梅内伊列为目标，那么美国需承担共同法律责任。

Was starting the war legal, domestically?

在国内层面，发动战争是否合法？

The Constitution vests the power to declare war with Congress. But especially since World War II, presidents of both parties have unilaterally committed U.S. troops into limited combat situations on their own. Executive branch lawyers claim that this is lawful if the anticipated nature, scope and duration of an operation fall short of a “war” in the constitutional sense.

美国宪法将宣战权授予国会。但自二战以来，两党总统均曾单方面将美军投入有限作战行动。行政部门律师主张，如果一项行动的预期性质、规模和持续时间未达到宪法意义上的“战争”标准，则属合法。

Despite those accumulating precedents, since the War Powers Resolution of 1973, presidents have sought prior authorization for major wars: the Persian Gulf war, Iraq and the war against Al Qaeda that began in Afghanistan. Mr. Trump’s war with Iran appears likely to be the most significant unilateral presidential military action since the law’s enactment.

尽管先例不断累积，但自1973年《战争权力决议》通过以来，总统发动重大战争均事先寻求国会授权：海湾战争、伊拉克战争以及始于阿富汗的针对基地组织的战争。特朗普对伊朗发动的战争很可能成为该法案颁布以来总统采取的最重大单边军事行动。

What about the assassination ban?

刺杀禁令如何适用？

After an inquiry in the 1970s that brought to light C.I.A. links to Cold War plots to kill foreign leaders, known as the Church Committee investigation, President Gerald Ford issued an executive order that banned “assassinations.” The ban is now part of Executive Order 12333, which states: “No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination.” The order does not define what types of killings count.

20世纪70年代，一场调查——名为“丘奇委员会调查”——揭露了中情局参与冷战时期暗杀外国领导人的阴谋。此后福特总统发布行政命令，禁止“刺杀”。该禁令如今已纳入第12333号行政命令，其中规定：“任何受雇于或代表美国政府行事的人员，不得从事或密谋从事刺杀。”该命令未界定何种杀戮行为属于刺杀。

Both before and after Congress authorized the war against Al Qaeda in 2001, the executive branch took the position that this ban would not bar the targeted killings of high-level terrorist leaders as self-defense or part of the armed conflict. Still, Qaeda operatives are not leaders of sovereign states.

在2001年国会授权对基地组织开战之前和之后，行政部门均坚持立场，认为该禁令不禁止出于自卫或作为武装冲突一部分而定点清除高级恐怖主义领导人。但基地组织成员并非主权国家领导人。

In 2020, Mr. Trump ordered an airstrike in Iraq that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian military commander. The visible portions of a heavily redacted Justice Department memo that blessed that strike do not address the assassination ban, but the memo accused him of orchestrating years of operations that killed American troops deployed in Iraq.

2020年，特朗普下令在伊拉克发动空袭，击毙伊朗高级军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将。司法部为该袭击背书的备忘录经过大量涂黑，可见部分并未提及刺杀禁令，但备忘录指控苏莱曼尼策划了多年来导致驻伊美军伤亡的行动。

When Nicolás Maduro and his wife walked into their apartment deep in a Caracas military base on an early January morning, they had no way of knowing that their every movement was being tracked by American intelligence. Or that the apartment, including the safe room, had been replicated in Kentucky by a Delta team that did dozens of practice runs figuring out how to immobilize the guards and breach the doors.

1月初的一个清晨，当尼古拉斯·马杜罗与妻子走进加拉加斯一处军事基地深处的公寓时，他们全然不知，自己的一举一动都在美国情报部门的监控之下。他们也无从知晓，这套公寓——包括安全屋——已被美国三角洲部队在肯塔基州复刻，该部队进行了数十次演练，只为摸清如何制服守卫、破门而入。

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei apparently ignored the evidence that the C.I.A. was tracking him and his top leaders, too, an operation that President Trump exposed in a social media post eight months ago. When the United States and Israel discovered that he and his national security team would be gathering Saturday morning, they advanced the timeline for their attack.

哈梅内伊显然也无视了中情局正在监控他与高层官员的证据，特朗普总统早在8个月前就通过社交媒体曝光了这一行动。当美国和以色列的情报部门获悉哈梅内伊与国家安全团队将于周六上午会面时，便提前了袭击计划。

Mr. Maduro is now in the federal detention center in Brooklyn. Ayatollah Khamenei’s state funeral is being planned for the coming days. And the rest of the world’s leaders are left to mull the combination of exquisite American surveillance capabilities and a president who seems to take delight in using that information to capture or kill his perceived enemies.

如今，马杜罗被关押在布鲁克林联邦拘留中心；哈梅内伊的国葬正在筹备中。世界各国领导人不得不重新审视：美国精密的情报监控能力，以及一位乐于利用这些信息来抓捕或杀死其眼中之敌的总统，二者结合会带来什么样的影响。

American intelligence agencies have long wiretapped, geolocated and monitored senior leaders, back to the earliest days of the Cold War. Fifteen years ago, WikiLeaks revelations included documents that gave glimpses of how the United States attempted to track China’s leaders and its nuclear weapons. Germany’s former chancellor, Angela Merkel, was outraged to discover that her personal cellphone was tapped by the country’s closest ally, and complained to President Barack Obama that it reminded her of growing up in East Germany.

自从冷战初期，美国情报机构就长期对外国高层进行窃听、定位与监控。15年前，维基解密披露的文件曾让外界窥见美国如何追踪中国领导人与核武器。德国前总理默克尔得知自己的私人手机被最亲密的盟友窃听时勃然大怒，并向奥巴马总统抱怨，称这让她想起了在东德长大的经历。

Today, merely tapping into a foreign leader’s conversations seems like a quaint remnant of post-Cold War spycraft.

如今，单纯窃听外国领导人的通话似乎已是后冷战时代间谍手段的古旧遗迹。

Today, the real-time ability to locate a leader is the holy grail. And the surge in the number of electronic sensors deployed on street corners and doorbell cameras and toll highways, combined with artificial intelligence techniques to quickly parse truly vital information from billions of data points those sensors generate, has transformed the art form of surveilling V.I.P. whereabouts.

当下，实时锁定领导人位置才是情报界的圣杯。遍布街角、门铃摄像头与收费公路的电子传感器数量激增，再加上人工智能技术能从这些传感器产生的数十亿数据点中快速筛选关键信息，这已彻底重塑了监控政要行踪的手段。

It has allowed intelligence agencies to track motorcades. (In Washington, presidential and vice-presidential movements are usually still announced by blaring motorcycles and familiar helicopter flight patterns, but cabinet members and the C.I.A. director move more discreetly.) Around the world, spy agencies have learned how to monitor the opening and closing of electronic doors at leadership compounds, and to locate the cellphones of bodyguards and family members who may travel with a foreign leader but are usually a lot sloppier about encrypting their messages and using burner phones.

这让情报机构得以追踪车队动向。（在华盛顿，总统与副总统的出行仍然常以轰鸣的摩托车开道和熟悉的直升机飞行来宣告，但内阁成员与中情局局长的行动则隐秘得多。）全球各地的情报部门已掌握如何监控领导人官邸电子门的开关，以及定位保镖与家属的手机——这些人常随外国领导人出行，却往往在信息加密与使用一次性手机方面要马虎得多。

“If we had had this capability with a high degree of certainty to get Saddam Hussein through a precision strike, we wouldn’t have had the Iraq war,” said Glenn Gerstell, the general counsel of the National Security Agency from 2015 through 2020, a period that included part of Mr. Trump’s first term. “The only way to get him was to have boots on the ground. But now, with heightened capabilities, we can target individual leaders.”

“若当年我们拥有如此高确定性的精准打击能力，能定位萨达姆·侯赛因，就不会爆发伊拉克战争了，”2015至2020年（涵盖特朗普首个任期部分时段）担任美国国家安全局总法律顾问的格伦·格斯特尔表示。“当年只能靠地面部队抓捕他。但如今，凭借升级的能力，我们可以精准锁定特定领导人。”

(In fact, American forces tried to take out Mr. Hussein in the opening hours of the war. But he had left the home they targeted a few hours earlier.)

（事实上，美军曾在战争爆发头几个小时试图除掉萨达姆，但他在目标住所遭袭前数小时离开。）

As Mr. Trump has shown, this targeting ability opens new options for presidents seeking to change the attitude of foreign regimes — or change their leadership.

正如特朗普所展现的，这种精准打击能力，为试图改变外国政权态度甚至更迭其领导人的美国总统，提供了全新的选项。

Mr. Trump’s decision to snatch Mr. Maduro from his bed, but keep the rest of the Venezuelan leadership in place, is an experiment in remote-control occupation. After the Delta team landed by helicopter that early January night, killed Mr. Maduro’s Cuban and Venezuelan guards, and seized him seconds before he could lock himself in that safe room, Mr. Trump blessed the installation of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president.

特朗普决定从床上抓走马杜罗却保留委内瑞拉其他领导层是一场远程遥控占领的试验。1月初的深夜，三角洲部队乘直升机着陆，击毙马杜罗的古巴与委内瑞拉守卫，在他即将闭锁安全屋的瞬间将其抓获。随后，特朗普批准副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯就任代总统。

She will stay there, he has said, as long as she follows Washington’s instructions. And clearly he is enamored of the early results. In a brief conversation with The New York Times on Sunday, on the second day of the American and Israeli attack on Iran, he cited the Venezuela experience as a model for what he was trying to accomplish in Iran.

特朗普称，只要她听从华盛顿指令，就能继续留任。显然，他对初步成果颇为满意。周日，在美以袭击伊朗的第二天，他接受《纽约时报》简短采访时，将委内瑞拉的经验称为伊朗行动的范本。

“What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect, the perfect scenario,” Mr. Trump insisted. “Everybody’s kept their job except for two people.”

“我们在委内瑞拉的做法，我认为是完美、完美的范例，”特朗普坚称。“除了两个人，所有人都保住了工作。”

In the Iran case, Mr. Trump had flagged for Ayatollah Khamenei that the United States was watching his every movement — a revelation that, had it appeared first in the media, might well have triggered a Justice Department leak investigation.

在伊朗问题上，特朗普早已向哈梅内伊明示，美国正监控他的一举一动——这一爆料若先由媒体披露，很可能会引发司法部针对泄密的调查。

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he posted on Truth Social in June 2025, as he cut short his participation in a summit and flew back to Washington to talk about how the United States would participate in the attacks Israel had begun on the country.

2025年6月，特朗普在Truth Social平台发文：“我们已完全掌控伊朗领空。”当时，他缩短了参加一场峰会的行程，飞回华盛顿讨论美国如何参与以色列已发起的对伊袭击。

Then he added: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.”

他还写道：“我们精确掌握所谓‘最高领袖’的藏身之处。他是个容易打击的目标，但他目前还安全——我们不会清除（杀掉）他，目前暂时不会。”

For good measure, Mr. Trump added an all-caps demand for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

为强化威慑，特朗普还用全大写字母要求：“无条件投降！”

It is impossible to know whether Ayatollah Khamenei was following Mr. Trump’s posts, but he certainly did not seem impressed by the warning. On Saturday, even with an American naval force deployed around Iran and fighter jets visible on satellite images massing on American and Israeli bases, Ayatollah Khamenei was in his official residence. So were national security leaders. And while the United States did not launch the missile that killed him, it was the C.I.A.’s warning, backed by indicators from other U.S. intelligence agencies, that killed him in one of the first Israeli strikes.

无人知晓哈梅内伊是否关注特朗普的发文，但他显然对此警告不以为然。周六，即便美国海军舰队部署在伊朗周边、卫星图像显示美以基地战机集结，哈梅内伊仍在官邸，国家安全高层也齐聚于此。尽管击毙他的导弹并非美军发射，但正是中情局的预警（辅以美国其他情报机构的佐证），让他在以色列的首轮袭击中身亡。

It is not clear how far the United States can push this new power — or whether it would risk using this targeting capability in the case of the leader of a country that had nuclear weapons available to retaliate.

目前尚不清楚美国能将这一新能力运用到何种程度，也不清楚当目标国拥有核武器可实施报复时，美国是否会冒险动用这种定点清除能力。

Notably, Mr. Trump is not messing with China’s Xi Jinping, or Russia’s Vladimir V. Putin or even North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, who has an arsenal of 60 or more nuclear weapons. “I’m not sure you can extrapolate this capability into a universal ability to track every leader everywhere,” said Paul Kolbe, who served as the C.I.A.’s station chief in Moscow early in Mr. Putin’s rule. “But this is why Putin is so paranoid about his location,” and moves frequently among his many houses.

值得注意的是，特朗普并没有去招惹中国国家主席习近平、俄罗斯总统普京，甚至拥有60余枚核武器的朝鲜最高领导人金正恩。“我不确定能否将这种能力推广为全球追踪所有领导人的通用手段，”普京执政初期曾任中情局莫斯科站站长的保罗·科尔比表示。“但这正是普京对其行踪如此敏感的原因”——他频繁在多处住所间转移。

“If you are the leader of an adversary nation, you should be pretty worried,” Mr. Kolbe said. “But if you are Putin or Xi, not so much, because of the stakes at play. The lesson that keeps getting taught is that if you don’t have nukes, you are far more vulnerable.”

“如果你是敌对国家领导人，理应高度警惕，”科尔比说。“但普京或习近平则不必过度担忧，因为风险代价极高。反复印证的教训是：没有核武器，你就会脆弱得多。”

The Iranians do not have nuclear weapons, which might make them hesitate before naming a new supreme leader, who would move to the top of the target list. Nonetheless Majid Takht-Ravanchi, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, said on CNN on Monday morning that the government remains in place and Ayatollah Khamenei’s replacement would soon be announced.

伊朗没有核武器，这或许会让它在提名新的最高领袖时有所犹豫——新领袖将立即成为头号打击目标。尽管如此，伊朗副外长马吉德·塔赫特-拉万奇周一上午在CNN表示，伊朗政府运转正常，哈梅内伊的继任者将很快公布。

“We have a president,” he said. “We have head of judiciary. We had the head of parliament. The supreme leader was assassinated — was murdered by Israeli and American aggression.”

“我们有总统，有司法首脑，我们曾有议会领袖，”他说。“最高领袖遭暗杀——是被美以侵略势力谋杀的。”

Now, he said, “the new leader is going to be elected. So everybody — everything is in order.”

如今，“新领袖将通过选举产生，”他还说。“所以一切——一切都井然有序。”

Last year, as President Trump swung from one erratic tariff policy to the next, Asian economies largely withstood the chaos. That resilience is now under threat as a conflict in the Middle East rapidly escalates, after Mr. Trump said that the U.S. military would continue to strike Iran for several weeks.

去年，特朗普总统反复无常地推出一项又一项关税政策时，亚洲经济体总体上经受住了动荡的冲击。但如今，随着中东冲突迅速升级，这种韧性正面临威胁。此前，特朗普表示，美军将在接下来的数周内继续对伊朗发动打击。

Concern spiked in many Asian capitals on Monday over the disruption to the flow of oil from the Middle East, a region that supplies half or more of the oil that several large economies consume.

周一，中东石油供应中断引发了许多亚洲国家政府的担忧，中东地区为数个大型经济体提供了一半甚至更多的石油供应。

In China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India, leaders are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor on Iran’s southern border through which one fifth of the world’s supply of oil flows, much of it eventually landing in Asia.

在中国、日本、韩国、台湾和印度，领导人都将目光聚焦在霍尔木兹海峡——这是一条位于伊朗南部边境的狭窄航运通道，全球五分之一的石油供应经由此地运输，其中大部分最终流向亚洲。

Countries have stockpiles of oil and gas that can see them through the next weeks and months, but a longer war in the region or decision by Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would pose a more serious threat to their economies.

各国都拥有可支撑未来数周乃至数月的石油和天然气储备，但如果该地区爆发一场更持久的战争，或伊朗决定封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这些国家的经济将面临更为严峻的威胁。

Experts said that Iran was unlikely to try to block the waterway because the country depends on its oil and gas exports to China for revenue. It would also be catastrophic for the global economy, economists warned.

专家表示，伊朗不太可能尝试封锁这条水道，因为该国依赖向中国出口石油和天然气获取收入。经济学家警告称，此举也将对全球经济造成灾难性后果。

Nevertheless, there was palpable concern in the oil markets, with prices spiking on Monday. Tankers avoided the area and diverted to longer routes, while the cost of insuring them began to climb and ports started to contend with backlogs.

尽管如此，石油市场仍弥漫着明显的不安情绪，周一油价飙升。油轮避开该地区，改走更长的航线；与此同时，保险成本开始上升，港口也开始面临积压压力。

The price swings and uncertainty are complicating an already delicate balance governments have struck between domestic economic challenges and geopolitical calculations.

价格的剧烈波动和不确定性使各国政府在应对国内经济挑战与地缘政治考量之间本已脆弱的平衡变得更加难以维系。

China on Monday called on “all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions, and prevent the regional instability from exerting a greater impact on global economic development,” according to Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry.

中国外交部发言人毛宁周一表示，中方敦促“各方立即停止军事行动，避免紧张事态进一步升级，防止地区局势动荡对全球经济发展造成更大影响”。

Oil from the Middle East is crucial to China’s overall energy security. If the conflict were to drag on, “China does not have the capacity to cushion the shock,” said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst based in Singapore for Kpler, a market research firm. “It would be catastrophic not just for China, but for the global market,” Ms. Xu said.

中东石油对中国整体能源安全至关重要。如果冲突持续，“中国没有能力缓冲这样的冲击”，总部位于新加坡的市场研究公司Kpler高级原油分析师徐牧宇表示。“这不仅对中国而言将是灾难性的，对全球市场也是如此，”她说。

北京的一个加油站。来自中东的石油对中国的整体能源安全至关重要。

Beijing is already facing an economic slowdown at home, where a property crisis weighs heavily on households that invested their savings in real estate. Excessive competition among local companies in China has set off a deflationary spiral, and youth unemployment is high. Beijing has turned to manufacturing to help fuel its economic growth and weather a fierce trade war with the United States that led to punishing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that at one point hit 145 percent.

北京已经面临国内经济放缓的问题，房地产危机给将积蓄投入房产的家庭带来沉重打击。中国本土企业之间的过度竞争引发了通缩螺旋，青年失业率居高不下。北京已转向依赖制造业来推动经济增长，并抵御与美国激烈的贸易战——这场贸易战导致美国对中国商品征收惩罚性关税，最高一度达到145%。

In a few weeks, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is expected to meet with Mr. Trump in what may now become an even more tense encounter.

再过几周，中国最高领导人习近平预计将与特朗普会晤，这场会面如今可能变得更加紧张。

China imports a little over half of its seaborne crude oil from the Middle East. Around a quarter of that comes from Iran. A loss of Iranian supply would eventually force China to purchase more oil, likely at higher prices, from other sources.

中国从中东进口的海运原油略高于其总进口量的一半，其中约四分之一来自伊朗。若伊朗供应中断，最终将迫使中国从其他来源购买更多石油，且价格很可能更高。

China has enough crude oil onshore to last 115 days, according to Kpler. It also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan and are shielded from Middle East disruptions.

根据Kpler的数据，中国陆上原油储备足以支撑115天的需求。中国还运营着三条主要原油管道，其中两条从俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦输油，不受中东地区供应中断的影响。

The ruling Communist Party has poured billions of dollars into developing renewable energy like solar power and electric vehicles. But, in the short term, it would have to look for new supplies of oil in a prolonged crisis.

执政的共产党已投入数十亿美元发展太阳能、电动汽车等可再生能源。但在短期内，若危机长期化，中国仍需寻找新的石油供应来源。

“China can’t pivot to domestic demand fast enough to offset collapsing export margins and absorb an oil price shock simultaneously,” said Han Lin, the country director for the Asia Group, a consulting firm. “The U.S. trade war compresses the very profits Chinese industry needs to fund the green-energy transition that would reduce Middle East exposure.”

“中国无法迅速转向内需，既抵消出口利润的下滑，又同时消化油价冲击，”咨询公司亚洲集团中国区负责人林汉昇表示。“美国的贸易战压缩了中国工业需要用来为绿色能源转型融资的利润，而这场转型本可减少对中东的依赖。”

On Sunday, the Japanese shipping giant Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one of the world’s largest transporters of fuel, announced that it was halting operations in the Persian Gulf following reports that the Iranian military was cautioning vessels to avoid the strait.

周日，全球最大的燃料运输商之一、日本航运巨头商船三井宣布，公司已暂停在波斯湾的运营。此前有报道称，伊朗军方警告船只避开该海峡。

For now, both countries have measures to offset the immediate effects.

目前，两国都有措施来抵消眼前的冲击。

Japan holds a total of 254 days of private and state-held oil reserves, according to government data. South Korea had enough in store to cover more than 210 days of consumption as of the end of last year, data from the country’s state-owned national oil and gas company indicated.

根据政府数据，日本持有的私人及国家石油储备合计可支撑254天。韩国国有石油和天然气公司数据显示，截至去年年底，韩国的储备足以满足210多天的消费需求。

“We will take every possible measure to ensure the stable supply of energy for our nation,” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan said, speaking in Parliament on Monday.

“我们将采取一切可能的措施，确保国家能源供应的稳定，”日本首相高市早苗周一在国会表示。

In South Korea, officials began examining contingency plans, including the release of oil reserves should there be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to local media reports.

据当地媒体报道，韩国官员已开始研究应急方案，其中包括如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，将释放石油储备。

But even if oil keeps flowing, a continuing surge in energy prices will probably take a significant economic toll.

但即便石油供应得以维持，能源价格持续飙升也可能对经济造成重大冲击。

Japan and South Korea already spend well over $100 billion annually on energy imports, meaning that further price increases would worsen their trade balances.

日本和韩国每年在能源进口上的支出已超过1000亿美元，这意味着价格进一步上涨将恶化它们的贸易平衡。

Japan, in particular, is also grappling with a prolonged bout of inflation that is weighing on household budgets. Any government moves to lighten the burden on consumers, such as cash handouts or tax cuts, risk exacerbating Japan’s immense sovereign debt levels and could spur further jitters in its debt markets.

尤其是日本，该国还在承受一轮持续的通胀，给家庭预算带来了沉重负担。任何减轻消费者负担的政府举措——如发放现金补贴或减税——都有可能加剧日本本已庞大的主权债务水平，并引发债市新的不安。

Nearby in Taiwan, a dependence on imported fuel has long been one of the island democracy’s most glaring vulnerabilities.

在邻近的台湾，对进口燃料的依赖长期以来一直是这个岛屿民主政体最明显的脆弱处之一。

Taiwan imports more than 96 percent of its energy, most of it from the Middle East. About 60 percent of Taiwan’s oil — and about a third of its natural gas — arrives by ship from countries via the Strait of Hormuz.

台湾96%以上的能源依赖进口，大多来自中东。约60%的石油以及约三分之一的天然气经由霍尔木兹海峡从相关国家海运而来。

Any shortage of energy supplies to Taiwan could endanger the global economy, which relies on the island’s manufacturing powerhouses for semiconductors used in smartphones, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence systems. A handful of factories in Taiwan make the vast majority of the world’s advanced computer chips, and they depend on a consistent supply of electricity.

台湾能源供应的任何短缺都可能危及全球经济，因为全球经济依赖台湾的制造巨头生产智能手机、电动汽车和人工智能系统所需的半导体。台湾少数几家工厂生产着全球绝大多数的先进芯片，而这些工厂依赖稳定的电力供应。

Saudi Arabia is Taiwan’s largest supplier of oil, and Taiwan gets a quarter of its liquefied natural gas from Qatar.

沙特阿拉伯是台湾最大的石油供应国，台湾四分之一的液化天然气来自卡塔尔。

Taiwan has enough oil in reserve to power the country for about 120 days, according to Chen Shih-Hau, a director focused on energy security at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a private research group. Taiwan’s natural gas supply would last only about 11 days, Mr. Chen said.

根据私人研究机构台湾经济研究院负责能源安全事务的研究五所所长陈诗豪表示，台湾的石油储备足以支撑约120天的能源供应，而天然气供应仅能维持约11天。

台湾少数几家工厂——如台积电运营的这家工厂——生产了世界上绝大多数的先进计算机芯片。

Major tech companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company have backup generators designed to keep power running during short-term emergencies, said Jheng Ruei-he, a senior analyst at Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a government-funded think tank in Taipei. But such equipment isn’t meant to be a long term stand-in for the national power grid.

政府资助、总部位于台北的智库中华经济研究院高级分析师郑睿合表示，台积电等大型科技公司配备了应急发电机，以在短期紧急情况下维持供电，但这些设备无法长期替代国家电网。

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a statement on Monday that the country had long-term contingency plans to ensure a stable power supply.

台湾经济事务主管部门周一在一份声明中表示，台湾已制定长期应急预案，以确保电力供应稳定。

Iran’s supreme leader may be dead, but there will be another. Its slain military commanders will be replaced. A governing system created over 47 years will not easily disintegrate under air power alone. Iran retains the capacity to strike back against American and Israeli airstrikes, and the war’s trajectory is unclear.

伊朗的最高领袖或许已经身亡，但还会有继任者。被击毙的军事指挥官也将被替换。一个历经47年建立起来的治理体系不会仅因空中打击就轻易瓦解。伊朗仍然具备对美国和以色列的空袭发起反击的能力，战争走向仍不明朗。

But the Islamic Republic, already weakened and unpopular, is now further diminished, its power at home and in the region at one of its lowest ebbs since its leaders took power during the revolution that overthrew Iran’s American-backed shah in 1978-79.

但这个本已虚弱且不得人心的伊斯兰共和国如今进一步遭到削弱，其在国内和地区的影响力已降至自1978–1979年革命推翻美国支持的巴列维国王以来的一个低点。

Even if the regime does not fall, which remains the stated aim of President Trump, this massive attack is likely to have strategic consequences in the Middle East comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

即使该政权并未垮台——尽管这仍是特朗普总统公开宣称的目标——此次大规模打击也很可能对中东产生堪比苏联解体的战略后果。

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed on Saturday morning, maintained a visceral antagonism toward Israel and the United States, which he consistently called “the Great Satan.” He built and financed a regional set of proxy militias that surrounded Israel and shared his hatred of it. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, the Houthis in Yemen — all served both to attack Israeli interests and protect Iran itself.

周六早间被击毙的最高领袖哈梅内伊一直对以色列和美国怀有根深蒂固的敌意，他始终称美国为“大撒旦”。他建立并资助了一系列环绕以色列的地区代理民兵组织，这些组织同样对以色列怀有仇恨。黎巴嫩的真主党、加沙和约旦河西岸的哈马斯与伊斯兰圣战组织、也门的胡塞武装——这些军事力量既用于打击以色列的利益，也用于保护伊朗自身。

Iran built up its missile program and enriched uranium to nearly bomb grade, even as it denied ever wanting a bomb. It became a regional power so strong that Sunni leaders in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf sought to keep good ties with a Shia Islamic regime that also threatened them.

伊朗不断发展导弹计划，并将铀浓缩至接近武器级水平，同时又否认寻求制造核武器。它成长为一个实力强大的地区大国，以至于沙特阿拉伯、埃及以及海湾地区的逊尼派领导人都试图与这个同样对他们构成威胁的什叶派伊斯兰政权保持良好关系。

Iran’s decline began two years ago, with Israel’s tough and sustained response to an invasion by Hamas from Gaza. It accelerated when Israel eroded Iran’s air defenses, defeated Hezbollah and profited from the Syrian revolution that overthrew Bashar al-Assad, another ally of Tehran.

伊朗的衰落始于两年前，当时以色列对哈马斯从加沙发动的袭击作出了强硬而持续的回应。随着以色列削弱伊朗的防空体系、击败真主党，并从推翻德黑兰盟友巴沙尔·阿萨德的叙利亚革命中获益，这种衰落进一步加速。

But now, with the ayatollah’s death and intense destruction from the air, Iran’s regional sway has ebbed further, with uncertain consequences that will play out over months and even years.

但现在，随着最高领袖的死亡和来自空中的大规模打击，伊朗的地区影响力进一步衰退，其不确定的后果将在未来数月乃至数年内逐渐显现。

周日，德黑兰遭遇袭击。

“The Islamic Republic as we know it will not survive this,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based research group.

位于伦敦的研究机构查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔说：“我们所熟知的那个伊斯兰共和国将无法在这场打击中幸存。”

“The Mideast won’t be the same again,” she said. “For 47 years the Mideast has been living with a hostile regime and a destabilizing force that it has tried to first isolate and then manage.”

她表示：“中东的面貌将彻底改变。47年来，中东一直与一个敌对政权和一个制造不稳定的力量共存，国际社会先是试图孤立它，后来又试图管控它。”

Now, she said, the regime might be dismantled and something new and different might emerge. That leadership may turn out to be even less friendly to Washington, particularly if dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

她说，这个政权现在可能被拆解，可能会出现一个全新的、不同的政权。新的领导层甚至可能对华盛顿更加不友好，尤其是如果由伊斯兰革命卫队主导的话。

Whoever takes charge, Iran will be badly weakened in the medium term, more inward-looking, and focused on political competition, internal security and economic chaos, Ms. Vakil said.

瓦基尔认为，无论最终由谁掌权，在中期内伊朗都将遭到严重削弱，更加无暇他顾，并专注于政治竞争、内部安全和经济混乱上。

In the coming days, however, Iran may spread more short-term chaos as its current leadership tries to bring an end to the war while saving the regime.

不过在接下来几天里，随着伊朗的现任领导层试图在拯救政权的同时结束战争，可能会出现更多短期混乱。

Iran will try to rapidly increase the cost for Israel, the United States and its Gulf allies “to force them to back down before this succeeds in destabilizing the regime,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

伊朗将试图迅速增加以色列、美国及其海湾盟友的代价，“迫使它们在成功动摇伊朗政权之前退缩，”欧洲对外关系委员会中东和北非项目副主任埃莉·格拉迈耶表示。

Increasing its attacks on Arab countries in the gulf is risky but may be Iran’s best chance to shorten the war — since it could prompt the Arab world to pressure the U.S. and Israel to end their campaign.

加强对海湾阿拉伯国家的攻击风险很大，但这可能是伊朗缩短战争的最佳机会——因为这可能促使阿拉伯国家向美国和以色列施压，要求结束军事行动。

“Iran’s aim now is to absorb U.S. and Israeli attacks, hold its position and signal expansion of war, and wait for worried regional actors to mediate a cease-fire,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, on social media. “They expect that if Trump does not get a quick win then he will look for an exit, and negotiations afterwards will be different.”

华盛顿约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的伊朗问题专家瓦利·纳斯尔在社交媒体上表示：“伊朗现在的目标是承受美国和以色列的打击，守住阵地，同时释放战争可能扩大的信号，并等待忧心忡忡的地区国家出面调解停火。他们预期，如果特朗普不能迅速获胜，他就会寻求退出，而之后的谈判格局将会不同。”

周六，巴林一栋建筑遭伊朗无人机袭击后起火燃烧。

Iran’s proxies across the Mideast could also come to Iran’s defense, increasing the price of an extended war, according to Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, a research institution.

国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹表示，中东各地的伊朗代理武装也可能出面支援伊朗，从而增加战争旷日持久的代价。

“If Hezbollah fully engages from Lebanon, if militias strike U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, or if the Houthis escalate in the Red Sea, this stops being a bilateral conflict and becomes a regionwide war stretching across the Middle East,” Mr. Vaez said. A wider war would have considerable longer-term impact on oil prices and inflation, especially if Iran can shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key international shipping route.

“如果真主党从黎巴嫩全面参战，如果民兵组织袭击美国在伊拉克和叙利亚的基地，或者胡塞武装在红海升级行动，这就将不再是双边冲突，而会演变成一场横跨中东的地区性战争，”瓦埃兹说。一场更广泛的战争将对油价和通胀产生相当大的长期影响，尤其是如果伊朗能够封锁关键的国际航运通道霍尔木兹海峡的话。

But in the longer term, an Iran that is wrapped up in its own domestic problems — trying to avoid elite fragmentation and consolidate a new leadership or even move toward a more consultative one, with less clerical influence and more power sharing — will not have the energy or the resources to meddle in the region. That could open up new opportunities for Lebanon and the Palestinians, as it has already done for the Syrians.

但从更长远来看，如果伊朗深陷自身国内问题——试图避免精英阶层分裂，巩固新的领导层，甚至走向一种有更多协商、神职人员影响减弱、更多分享权力的模式——没有精力也没有资源干预地区事务。这可能为黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦人带来新的机遇，正如这种局面已经为叙利亚带来的变化一样。

It leaves Israel ascendant, making it even more of an ineradicable fact in the region that the Sunni nations must accommodate. A new and more moderate government could take office in Israel after elections later this year. With Iran defanged, it may feel it has the mandate to build on the cease-fire in Gaza and negotiate seriously with the Palestinians, under pressure from Washington and the Saudis.

这使以色列处于有利地位，使其在该地区愈加成为一个不可消除的现实，而逊尼派国家必须加以适应。今年晚些时候选举之后，以色列可能会产生一个更加温和的新政府。在伊朗遭到削弱后，在华盛顿和沙特的压力下，以色列可能会觉得可以放手在加沙停火基础上继续推进，与巴勒斯坦人展开认真的谈判了。

周日，以色列安全官员在检查特拉维夫一栋遭伊朗袭击损毁的建筑。

Presuming there is no revolution, a reconstituted Iranian government must still grapple with a powerful Israel and a United States it cannot trust. The current regime has made nuclear enrichment a key element in its efforts to cement regional power and deterrence. And it has refused to change course, even as that display of persistence seems to have brought it closer to destruction than any other policy, whether that be supporting terrorism abroad or massive repression at home.

假定没有革命发生，一个重新组建的伊朗政府仍然必须面对一个强大的以色列以及一个它无法信任的美国。现政权一直把核浓缩作为巩固地区实力和威慑力的关键手段。尽管与其他任何政策相比——无论是支持海外恐怖活动还是在国内实施大规模镇压，都使其更接近毁灭，伊朗仍拒绝改变路线。

It is unclear if even a more moderate government would make new concessions over its nuclear program under the pressure of war. It is also unclear if any Iranian leader would feel able to trust President Trump, who tore up President Obama’s nuclear deal in 2018, and now has bombed Iran twice in the middle of ongoing negotiations. Would Tehran deem it necessary to give in on the nuclear issue to survive? Or if a hard-line, more security-dominated government emerges, will it try to race toward a nuclear weapon, more convinced than ever of its need?

目前尚不清楚，即使在战争压力下，一个更温和的政府是否会在核计划上做出新的让步。同样也不清楚，是否会有任何伊朗领导人觉得可以信任特朗普总统——他在2018年撕毁了奥巴马总统达成的核协议，如今又在谈判仍在进行之际两次轰炸伊朗。德黑兰是否会认为，为了生存必须在核问题上让步？还是说，如果一个更强硬、更加以安全机构为主导的政府出现，它会比以往任何时候都更加确信核武器的必要性，从而试图加速研制核武器吗？

The death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment in the 47-year existence of the Islamic Republic. The scenes that followed — throngs of Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate, others turning out to grieve — signal the deep uncertainty about what comes next.

伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊的死是伊斯兰共和国47年存在历史上的一个分水岭时刻。随后出现的景象——成群的伊朗人走上街头庆祝，另一些人则出来哀悼——表明人们对接下来会发生什么充满深深的不确定性。

There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump’s call to take over the government? Can Iran’s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?

现在有三个关键问题：抗议者将如何回应特朗普总统号召他们接管政府的呼吁？伊朗的威权体制能否存续？这次袭击是否会引发一场混乱的权力争夺战？

Mr. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran’s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.

特朗普和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡已公开呼吁伊朗人民，认为他们为伊朗人提供了推翻残暴威权政府的历史性机会。但他们如何设想手无寸铁的民众对抗一支装备精良、由意识形态驱动的安全部队，目前尚不清楚。

Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran’s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests.

虽然目前空袭只进行了两天，但一些地区专家怀疑，仅凭空中作战能否足够削弱伊朗政府，足以让伊朗人通过抗议将其推翻。

Nonetheless, Iran is headed toward a transformative moment, said Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

尽管如此，瑞士日内瓦研究生院伊朗及中东政治分析师法尔赞·萨贝特表示，伊朗正走向一个变革性的时刻。

“Some kind of change will happen in the system,” he said. “But in which direction? We don’t know.”

“体制内某种变化将会发生，”他说。“但会朝哪个方向？我们不知道。”

随着阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊遇刺身亡的消息传遍德黑兰，当地民众纷纷拿起手机。

Could Iranian protesters topple their government?

伊朗抗议者能否推翻他们的政府？

In some ways, Iranians are ever more defiant after facing a brutal crackdown on nationwide antigovernment protests in January, in which security forces killed thousands. As the violent repression subsided, the risks were still high even before the bombardment began. Yet students still protested and held sit-ins, and the families of slain protesters used their memorial services to voice dissent.

从某种程度上说，在1月全国反政府抗议遭受残酷镇压后，伊朗人变得更加不屈不挠，当时安全部队杀害了数千人。随着暴力镇压逐渐平息，即使在轰炸开始前，局势风险依然很高。然而，学生们仍在抗议并举行静坐，死难者家属则利用悼念仪式表达异议。

After the authorities confirmed Ayatollah Khamenei’s death in the attack, many Iranians dared to celebrate publicly — but not to the point of risking bloodshed.

在当局确认阿亚图拉哈梅内伊在袭击中丧生后，许多伊朗人敢于公开庆祝——但尚未到冒着流血风险的地步。

Arian, a resident of a suburb near Tehran, described seeing people “honking in the streets, shouting chants from windows.” Like all people interviewed inside the country, he asked to withhold his full name for fear of retaliation.

德黑兰附近郊区居民阿里安描述说，他看到人们“在街上鸣笛，从窗户喊口号”。像所有在伊朗国内接受采访的人一样，他要求不透露全名，以免遭到报复。

On Sunday morning, Arian said, he saw people dancing and singing in the streets — until they noticed the arrival of armed members of Iran’s Basij, the volunteer militia force aligned with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. “When the Basij showed up, everyone got scared and quickly scattered,” he said.

周日早上，阿里安说，他看到人们在街上跳舞唱歌——直到他们注意到伊朗巴斯基民兵（与革命卫队结盟的志愿民兵部队）武装成员到来。“巴斯基一出现，大家都害怕了，迅速散开，”他说。

Even under aerial bombardment, Iran’s domestic security apparatus was still making a show of force. Basij forces, estimated to be around one million strong around the country, have already been mobilized around the capital.

即使经历空中轰炸，伊朗的国内安全机构仍在展示力量。巴斯基部队在全国估计约有100万人，已在首都周边动员。

“The brutal killing of protesters in January suggests domestic unrest will be met with an iron fist,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “This time under far harsher wartime conditions.”

“1月对抗议者的残酷杀戮表明，国内动乱将遭到铁拳回应，”欧洲对外关系委员会中东与北非项目副主任埃莉·杰兰马耶表示。“而这次是在远为严酷的战时条件下。”

Some airstrikes have begun to target Basij and intelligence headquarters, but experts are divided as to whether airstrikes can inflict enough damage to weaken a deeply entrenched and complex network of security forces across such a large country.

一些空袭已开始针对巴斯基和情报总部，但空袭能否对这个幅员辽阔国家中根深蒂固且错综复杂的安全网络造成足够破坏，专家们依然存在分歧。

“The problem is these are very multilayered targets,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan. “You hit one, but there are so many others. I am not sure how long it can be sustained, munitions wise.”

“问题是这些目标非常多层，”米兰天主教大学伊朗专家阿卜杜勒拉苏尔·迪夫萨拉尔说。“你击中一个目标，还有其他许多目标。我不确定在弹药方面能维持多久。”

周日袭击后，德黑兰上空的烟雾。

Could Iran’s current regime survive?

伊朗现政权能否存续？

Even as strikes wiped out several of Iran’s top political and military leaders, official statements went to great lengths to show the system was prepared for the shock and still functioning.

尽管袭击消灭了伊朗多名最高层政治和军事领导人，但官方声明极力显示该体制已为这一冲击做好准备，并仍在运转。

After Ayatollah Khamenei’s death, Iranian officials announced that the government would follow the constitutional framework for selecting the country’s next leader, and that a temporary leadership council would be formed.

哈梅内伊去世后，伊朗官员宣布政府将遵循宪法框架选出下一任领袖，并将成立一个临时领导委员会。

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council who is seen as the de facto leader behind the scenes, stressed that idea in televised comments urging unity after the ayatollah’s death.

被视为幕后实际领导人的伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席阿里·拉里贾尼在电视讲话中强调这一想法，呼吁在阿亚图拉去世后团结一致。

“Throughout history, the Iranian nation has faced even greater challenges; even the Mongols plowed through the entire country, yet the people stood firm and defended their land,” he said. “Such martyrdoms make people resistant and steadfast.”

“纵观历史，伊朗民族曾面临更大挑战；即使被蒙古人横扫，人民仍屹立不倒，保卫家园，”他说。“这种殉道只会让人民更加坚韧不拔。”

But the system could undergo a transformation from within. Mr. Larijani, seen as a pragmatist, is the type of figure observers say could potentially strike a deal with Washington now that Iran’s more ideologically driven supreme leader is gone.

但体制可能从内部发生转变。据观察人士称，在伊朗更重意识形态的最高领袖去世后，被视为务实派的拉里贾尼这类人物可能与华盛顿达成某种协议。

Some ordinary Iranians said that such a deal, if accompanied by an easing of international sanctions on Iran, may be palatable to many residents who have suffered through so many months of instability and a collapsing economy.

一些普通伊朗人表示，如果此类协议伴随国际对伊朗制裁的缓解，对许多饱受数月动荡和经济崩溃之苦的民众来说，或许是可以接受的。

“Most people aren’t chasing deep meaning,” said Payman, 45, a businessman in Tehran. “They just want a normal life: family, work, small goals. If that becomes possible, a lot of people might stop pushing for bigger change.”

“大多数人并不追求深刻意义，”德黑兰45岁的商人帕曼说。“他们只想要正常生活：家庭、工作、小目标。如果这些可以实现，许多人可能停止推动更大的变革。”

But there is also the possibility Iran’s new leaders would turn the state in the opposite direction — making it even more radical. “The risk is that the more hard-line figures emerge,” Mr. Divsallar said.

但伊朗新领导人也有可能将国家推向相反方向——变得更加激进。“风险在于更强硬的人物浮现，”迪夫萨拉尔说。

The fact that the leadership change was brought about by American and Israeli attacks increases that possibility, he said. “That works completely against what people wished for,” he said.

领导层更迭是由美国和以色列袭击造成的，这一事实增加了这种可能性，他说。“这完全违背了人们的期望。”

Could Iran descend into chaos?

伊朗是否会陷入混乱？

周日，德黑兰，一名手持哈梅内伊照片的女子。

Beyond toppling or transforming Iran’s current system is the possibility that the war unleashes chaos in a country of 90 million people that borders seven countries.

除了推翻或改造伊朗现体制之外，还有一种可能性：战争在这个有9000万人口、与七国接壤的国家引发混乱。

There are many potential opponents who could use violence to challenge a weakened state. Some ethnic minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, already have armed opposition groups.

有许多潜在反对派可能利用暴力挑战虚弱的国家政权。有些少数民族，如库尔德人和俾路支人，已经拥有武装反对团体。

Mustafa Hijri, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iran, said that his organization was part of an alliance of groups from Iran’s ethnic minorities, and that among them were parties that “when necessary, may engage in armed resistance as part of their struggle.”

伊朗库尔德民主党领导人穆斯塔法·希吉里表示，他的组织是伊朗少数民族团体联盟的一部分，其中一些党派“在必要时，可能以武装抵抗作为斗争的一部分”。

Officials from two Kurdish groups in exile, who asked not to be identified, said they were planning on trying to restart operations inside the country, aiming to encourage an uprising in Iran’s Kurdish region.

两名要求不具名的流亡库尔德团体官员表示，他们计划尝试在国内重启行动，旨在鼓励伊朗的库尔德地区起义。

Even before the war started, many Iranians were bemoaning the increasingly polarized state of the country in the wake of the brutal crackdowns on the protests.

甚至在战争开始前，许多伊朗人已在哀叹国家在残酷镇压抗议后日益极化的状态。

The government retains an ideological and religious support base that, in the current war, would be highly motivated to fight back against perceived threats. That raises the possibility of internal fragmentation and violence that spills beyond Iran’s borders.

政府仍然得到意识形态和宗教群体的支持，在当前战争中，该群体将奋力反抗他们眼中的威胁。这增加了内部碎片化和暴力外溢的可能性，甚至超出伊朗边界。

On Sunday, Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, an influential cleric in Iran, called for jihad against Israel and the United States, according to remarks published in the semiofficial Mehr news agency.

周日，据半官方的梅尔通讯社发布的言论，在伊朗很有影响力的阿亚图拉纳赛尔·马卡雷姆·设拉子呼吁对以色列和美国发动圣战。

All of these factors create a growing risk of a dangerous insurgency should the state collapse, similar to the insurgency that broke out in Iraq after U.S. forces invaded it in 2003, said Ms. Geranmayeh, the analyst.

分析师杰兰马耶表示，所有这些因素都增加了国家崩溃时爆发危险叛乱的风险，类似于2003年美军入侵伊拉克后爆发的叛乱。

“This is a holy war for them — and they seem willing to burn down the country and region before surrendering,” she said. “If this air campaign succeeds in toppling Iran’s leadership, years of chaos probably lie ahead for the country and its people.”

“对他们来说，这是圣战——他们似乎宁愿将国家和整个地区付之一炬也不肯投降，”她说。“如果这次空中作战成功推翻伊朗领导层，该国及其人民可能面临数年的混乱。”

Oil prices rose 10 percent as markets opened on Sunday evening, underscoring the economic risks of the widening conflict in the Middle East.

周日晚间市场开盘，油价暴涨10%，凸显出中东冲突扩大带来的经济风险。

The U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran could severely restrict supplies from a key oil and gas-producing region. Even if the disruption is brief, it will almost certainly make energy more expensive worldwide. The magnitude of those price increases and how long they last will depend on what the United States and Israel do next — and how Iran responds.

美以对伊朗发动的打击可能严重限制这一重要油气产区的供应。即便中断时间短暂，也几乎必然推高全球能源价格。涨幅大小与持续时长将取决于美以下一步行动以及伊朗如何回应。

International oil prices had already climbed about 20 percent this year, nearing $73 a barrel on Friday. On Sunday, they crossed $80 a barrel.

今年以来，国际油价已累计上涨约20%，周五一度接近每桶73美元。周日，油价直接突破每桶80美元。

The longer that the war disrupts the energy trade, the bigger the risk that consumers will face higher prices, not just at the gas pump but in a broad array of products, at a time when many people are already worried about the economy. That could cause domestic political blowback for President Trump, whose approval ratings have tumbled in part because many Americans are concerned about inflation.

战争对能源贸易的干扰持续越久，消费者面临的涨价风险就越大——不仅体现在加油站，还会传导到大量商品。而当前许多民众本就对经济感到担忧。这可能给特朗普总统带来国内政治上的不利，他的支持率近期下滑，部分原因正是不少美国人对通胀的担忧。

By Sunday, the flow of tankers carrying energy products through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast, had slowed to a trickle. About one-fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas usually pass through the choke point daily.

截至周日，途经伊朗南部沿海狭窄水道霍尔木兹海峡的能源运输已近乎停滞。全球约五分之一的石油和大量天然气，日常都要经过这一咽喉要道。

But in a crucial sign for oil markets, no major energy assets in the region appeared to have been struck as of late Sunday in Iran.

但对石油市场而言，一个关键信号是：截至周日晚间，伊朗境内的主要能源设施暂未遭到袭击。

“The biggest question is what, if any, oil installations get damaged,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University. “If the answer to that is none, my opinion is the price of oil will come back down.”

“最大的问题是，石油设施如果受损，受损的是哪些，”纽约大学能源、气候正义与可持续发展实验室主任埃米·迈尔斯·贾菲表示，“如果答案是没有设施受损，那么我认为油价会回落。”

The United States may be the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, but that does not fully insulate it from market shocks since those commodities are traded globally.

美国虽是全球最大油气生产国，但也无法完全免受市场冲击，因为这些大宗商品是全球范围交易的。

This is the second time in two months that the United States has taken military action in an oil-rich country. Prices barely moved in January after American forces captured Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, partly because that country accounts for less than 1 percent of the world’s oil supply.

这是两个月内美国第二次对石油资源丰富的国家采取军事行动。1月美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，油价几乎没有波动，部分原因是该国石油供应量占全球不到1%。

Not only does Iran produce more oil, but so do its neighbors, and the country sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, a vital oil and natural gas trading route.

伊朗不仅自身石油产量更高，其周边邻国亦是产油大国，且伊朗扼守波斯湾入海口，这是油气贸易的关键通道。

Until this point, one of the main concerns in the global market had been that the world was producing a lot more oil than it needed. That oversupply is likely to blunt any increase in prices, at least for a while. Indeed, on Sunday, a group of oil producers known as OPEC Plus said they planed to increase output modestly in April.

到目前为止，全球市场的主要担忧之一是世界石油产量远大于需求量。这种供应过剩至少在短期内可能抑制油价上涨。事实上，周日，名为欧佩克+的产油国集团已表示，计划在4月小幅提高产量。

“Americans will see some impact at the gasoline pump,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “But even with a massive strike on Iran that killed the leader of the country, at this point we’re still talking about oil prices that are well within historical norms — and much less than one would have ever expected with a strike of this magnitude.”

“美国人会在加油站感受到一些影响，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心创始主任贾森·博多夫表示，“但即便对伊朗发动大规模袭击并导致其领导人死亡，目前来看，油价仍处在历史正常区间——远低于如此规模打击本可能引发的涨幅。”

Higher prices for oil traded on commodity futures markets will not immediately lead to a big increase in prices at gas pumps in the United States. But fuel prices tend to respond relatively quickly, within a matter of days or weeks.

大宗商品期货市场上的油价上涨不会立刻导致美国加油站油价大幅飙升，但燃油价格通常会在数天至数周内做出相对较快的反应。

The pace “will really depend on how severe the supply constraint reveals itself to be,” said Ken Medlock, an energy fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

莱斯大学贝克研究所能源研究员肯·梅德洛克表示，上涨速度“实际上将取决于供应受限的严重程度”。

In the week after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices climbed around 20 percent. But the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline only rose about 3 percent in that time, according to AAA motor club data. It was not until the following week that drivers started to see significantly higher gasoline prices. U.S. gasoline prices eventually hit a record above $5 a gallon several months later, in June.

2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的一周内，油价上涨约20%。但据美国汽车协会AAA的数据，同期普通汽油每加仑均价仅上涨约3%。直到第二周，驾车者才开始看到油价明显走高。数月后的6月，美国汽油价格最终突破每加仑五美元，创下历史纪录。

As a general rule of thumb, for every $10 a barrel increase in the cost of oil, the price of gasoline that consumers see at their local stations might rise 20 to 30 cents a gallon, said Ms. Jaffe of N.Y.U. Gasoline cost an average of $2.98 a gallon in the United States on Sunday, according to AAA.

纽约大学的贾菲表示，根据一般经验，每桶油价上涨10美元，加油站汽油每加仑可能上涨20至30美分。AAA数据显示，周日美国汽油均价为每加仑2.98美元。

The Russian invasion of Ukraine also drove up the price of natural gas, a key fuel for the power sector and heavy industry. That contributed to increases in the prices of electricity in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. A lot of liquefied natural gas is shipped through the waters around Iran and a sustained disruption of those flows could, over time, also hurt the global economy.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰还推高了天然气价格——天然气是电力和重工业的关键燃料，这也推高了欧洲、美国等地的电价。大量液化天然气要经由伊朗周边海域运输，长期来看，相关运输若长时间中断，也会冲击全球经济。

On Sunday, attention remained on the Strait of Hormuz, where videos verified by The New York Times showed a tanker ablaze while anchored near Oman. Another vessel was also reportedly struck in the area, and a separate projectile was said to have exploded near a third ship.

周日，各方目光仍聚焦霍尔木兹海峡。经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，一艘油轮在阿曼附近锚泊时起火。据报道，另一艘船在该区域遇袭，另有一枚弹体在第三艘船只附近爆炸。

In other conflicts, naval vessels have escorted commercial ships that have come under threat, though a Department of Defense spokesman said the United States had no such plans for the Persian Gulf.

在以往冲突中，海军舰艇会为受威胁的商船护航，但美国国防部一名发言人表示，美方目前暂无在波斯湾采取此类行动的计划。

As of Sunday afternoon in Iran, just six tankers used to carry energy products had traveled through the strait, down from 65 on Friday, according to S&P Global Energy’s Commodities at Sea.

标普全球大宗商品航运数据显示，截至伊朗当地时间周日下午，仅有六艘能源运输船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，而周五这一数字为65艘。

The Trump administration has delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at billions of dollars to avoid upsetting Xi Jinping, China’s leader, ahead of President Trump’s planned trip to Beijing in April, U.S. officials said.

美国官员透露，特朗普政府推迟宣布一项价值数十亿美元的对台军售计划，目的是避免在特朗普计划中的4月访问北京之前激怒中国领导人习近平。

The weapons sale, which includes air-defense missiles, is in an advanced stage. Senior Republican and Democratic lawmakers approved the package after the State Department sent it to them in January for informal review.

这项军售计划已进入后期阶段，内容包括防空导弹。美国国务院于1月将其送交国会进行非正式审查后，共和党与民主党的高层议员均已批准。

However, since then, the sales package has languished in the State Department, the officials said. Administration officials have told some involved in the approval of the sale that the White House ordered agencies not to move forward to ensure that Mr. Trump has a successful summit with Mr. Xi, one official said.

然而官员表示，自那时起，该销售方案便在国务院搁置。一名官员称，政府官员已告知部分参与审批的人员，白宫下令各机构不得推进，以确保特朗普与习近平的峰会取得成功。

Another official said the package has a total value of about $13 billion, compared with the $11 billion sale that the Trump administration announced in December. The U.S. officials spoke to The New York Times on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic and security matters.

另一位官员指出，该方案总价值约130亿美元，超过了特朗普政府去年12月宣布的110亿美元军售。由于涉及敏感的外交与安全事务，这些美国官员在接受《纽约时报》采访时要求匿名。

The State Department said it does not comment on pending arms sales. “This administration has been very clear that the enduring U.S. commitment to Taiwan continues, as it has for over four decades,” it said in a statement.

国务院对此表示不评论待定的军售，但在声明中称：“本届政府已明确表示，美国对台湾的长期承诺将一如既往地持续，正如过去四十多年来所做的那样。”

The White House referred questions to the State Department.

白宫建议向国务院询问该问题。

The topic of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan came up in a Feb. 4 call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi, according to a summary of the conversation from Chinese state news organizations.

根据中国官方媒体发布的通话简报，美对台军售话题出现在2月4日特朗普与习近平的通话中。

“The U.S. must handle arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump, according to the summary. Mr. Xi also warned Mr. Trump that the U.S. position on Taiwan was “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations” and that China “will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China.”

习近平告诉特朗普：“美方务必慎重处理对台军售问题。”他还警告称，台湾问题是“中美关系中最重要的问题”，中国“永远不可能让台湾分裂出去”。

In a social media post that day, Mr. Trump listed the issue of Taiwan among more than a half-dozen topics, and said the call was “all very positive.” The two leaders have been planning to meet in Beijing this spring, which would be the first time since they talked in person last October in Busan, South Korea. They agreed in Busan to a yearlong truce in a trade war that Mr. Trump had started. The thorny subject of Taiwan, a democratic island with de facto independence that is claimed by China, did not come up.

特朗普当天在社交媒体上发文，列出了该次通话中涵盖的多个话题，台湾问题也在其中，他称此次通话“非常积极”。两位领导人计划于今年春天在北京会面，这将是继去年10月两人在韩国釜山会晤后的首次面对面接触。当时他们在釜山达成协议，对特朗普发起的贸易战实施为期一年的休战，而棘手的台湾问题——中国宣称对这个具有事实独立地位的民主岛屿拥有主权——并未被提及。

On Feb. 16, Mr. Trump told reporters that he was considering what to do about arms sales to Taiwan, given that Mr. Xi opposes them.

2月16日，特朗普告诉记者，鉴于习近平的反对，他正在考虑如何处理对台军售。

“I’m talking to him about it,” he said aboard Air Force One.

他在空军一号上说：“我正在和他讨论这个问题。”

Mr. Trump did not clarify what he meant by that. Some experts on U.S.-China policy said Mr. Trump could be violating a diplomatic agreement called the Six Assurances, a pillar of U.S.-Taiwan and U.S.-China policies. Those assurances were sent by the Reagan administration to Taiwan’s president in 1982, and one is generally understood to say that the U.S. government would not consult with China before an arms sale to Taiwan.

特朗普并未阐明此话具体所指。一些中美政策专家表示，特朗普此举可能违反了被称为“六项保证”的外交协议——这是美台及美中政策的支柱。这些保证由里根政府于1982年向台湾发出，其中一项普遍被理解为：美国政府在对台军售前不会征询中国意见。

The proposed package includes interceptor missiles for Patriot air-defense launchers, anti-drone equipment and NASAMS, another missile-based air-defense system, an official said. There are also small arms and maintenance and sustainment items.

官员表示，拟议的方案包括爱国者防空系统拦截导弹、反无人机设备，以及另一种基于导弹的防空系统NASAMS，此外还包括轻型武器及维修保养配件。

The Financial Times first reported on the compiling of an arms package, and The Wall Street Journal later reported on hesitation among U.S. officials to move forward with it.

《金融时报》最早报道了该军售方案的配置情况，《华尔街日报》随后报道了美国官员对推进该方案的犹豫。

The fact that the Trump administration has halted the package at an advanced stage of the process, after informal approval from Congress, has not been previously reported.

特朗普政府在方案获得国会非正式批准后，于推进过程的后期阶段叫停了该计划，这是此前未曾报道的消息。

In general, the State Department sends proposed arms packages to a Senate committee and a House committee to be reviewed by the top lawmakers from both parties on those panels. If the lawmakers grant informal approval, then the department generally announces the sale publicly soon afterward and sends the package to Congress for pro forma official approval.

通常，国务院将拟议的军售方案送交参众两院委员会，由两党在委员会中的高层议员审议。若议员们给予非正式批准，国务院通常会很快公开宣布销售，并将方案送交国会进行形式上的正式批准。

The informal approval stage is significant. For example, Democratic congressional officials have spent weeks or months scrutinizing arms sales to Israel in recent years, as criticism has grown of the Israeli military’s killing of civilians in Gaza during a retaliation campaign against Hamas for its October 2023 attacks. The Trump administration has bypassed Congress three times to expedite arms shipments to Israel.

非正式审批阶段至关重要。例如，随着以色列军队在针对哈马斯2023年10月袭击的报复行动中杀害加沙平民引发的批评声浪高涨，民主党议员近年来花费数周或数月审查对以色列军售。而特朗普政府曾三次绕过国会，加快向以色列运送武器。

U.S. arms support for Taiwan has strong bipartisan support in Congress, and the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act obligates administrations to sell weapons of a defensive nature to the island. Lawmakers often quickly give approval to such packages.

美国对台军援在国会拥有强大的跨党派支持，且1979年的《台湾关系法》要求历届政府向该岛出售防御性武器。议员们通常会迅速批准此类方案。

Although senior U.S. officials pushed in the first Trump administration to bolster ties to the island, Mr. Trump has been dismissive of Taiwan in private, according to a memoir by John R. Bolton, a national security adviser in the first term.

尽管特朗普第一任期的高级官员曾推动加强美台关系，但据第一任期内的国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿的回忆录，特朗普在私下里对台湾表现得不屑一顾。

By contrast, Mr. Trump has consistently expressed admiration for Mr. Xi, whom he calls a “very good friend,” even as he views China as a formidable trade rival. At the urging of U.S. businesses, he recently eased restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductor chips to China.

相比之下，特朗普一直在表达对习近平的钦佩，称其为“非常好的朋友”，尽管他仍将中国视为强大的贸易对手。在美企的敦促下，他最近还放宽了对华出口先进半导体芯片的限制。

Iran struck a base housing American troops in Kuwait, killing three U.S. service members, military officials said on Sunday, as the stakes for the United States became immediately clear in its latest war in the Middle East.

美国军方官员周日表示，伊朗袭击了科威特境内的一处美军基地，造成三名美军士兵死亡，美国在中东最新战争中的风险由此立即显现。

The fatalities were the first for the United States since the U.S. and Israeli militaries jointly began attacks in Iran on Saturday. The U.S. military’s Central Command said that five service members were “seriously wounded” and several others “sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions” in the attack.

这是自美国与以色列军方周六联合对伊朗发动袭击以来，美方首次出现人员阵亡。美国中央司令部称，袭击中另有五名军人“受重伤”，数人“遭受轻微弹片伤和脑震荡”。

The Iranian strikes in Kuwait, at Camp Arifjan, destroyed major portions of an army unit that manages housing for troops in the country, military officials said.

军方官员表示，伊朗袭击了科威特的阿里夫坚军营，摧毁了一支负责管理驻科部队住宿事务的陆军单位的大部分设施。

Iranian retaliatory strikes also killed at least nine people in Israel, and four people in other countries in the region. In Iran, the U.S.-Israeli strikes have killed at least 133 civilians and wounded 200 others, according to HRANA, the media agency of an Iranian rights group based in Washington.

伊朗的报复性袭击还造成以色列至少九人死亡，并在该地区其他国家造成四人死亡。总部位于华盛顿的伊朗人权组织媒体机构HRANA称，美以袭击已造成伊朗至少133名平民死亡、200人受伤。

For the United States, the grim American toll in the first two days of the war signaled that Iran was more prepared for war than the Trump administration anticipated, U.S. military officials said. Iran has put up a fight, even after its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top officials were killed in Israeli attacks with intelligence help from the C.I.A.

美军官员称，开战两天美方就出现严重伤亡，表明伊朗对战争的准备超出了特朗普政府的预期。即便在最高领袖哈梅内伊及其他高级官员在以色列借助中情局情报发动的袭击中身亡，伊朗仍在顽强抵抗。

美国第五舰队位于巴林首都麦纳麦的海军基地，摄于遭受伊朗报复性打击后。

In the weeks before the war, the United States had assembled its largest military buildup since the Iraq War began in 2003. Since early Saturday, U.S. attack planes launched from bases around the Middle East and from at least one aircraft carrier have carried out hundreds of strikes in Iran.

开战前数周，美国已完成2003年伊拉克战争以来最大规模的军事集结。自周六凌晨起，美军战机从中东各地基地及至少一艘航母起飞，对伊朗发动了数百次打击。

The supreme leader “was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do,” Mr. Trump boasted on social media on Saturday.

特朗普周六在社交媒体上自夸：“最高领袖无法躲过我们的情报与高度精密追踪系统。在与以色列密切配合下，他和一同被击毙的其他领导人毫无还手之力。”

The Israeli military said on Sunday its airstrikes had destroyed about 200 ballistic missile launchers and rendered dozens more inoperable over the past two days, taking out roughly half of Iran’s launcher arsenal.

以色列军方周日称，过去两天以军空袭摧毁了约200个弹道导弹发射装置，使另外数十个装置失去作战能力，伊朗导弹发射装备约半数被摧毁。

The strikes have also targeted Iran’s central explosives manufacturing facility, which supplies materials for missile warheads and other weapons programs, including rockets, U.A.V.s, and cruise missiles.

袭击目标还包括伊朗的核心炸药制造设施，该设施为导弹弹头及其他武器项目（包括火箭、无人机、巡航导弹）提供材料。

On Sunday, the United States continued a wave of strikes, particularly targeting Iran’s ballistic missile program and the Iranian Navy, a Central Command official said.

美国中央司令部一名官员表示，周日美方继续发动多轮打击，重点针对伊朗弹道导弹项目与伊朗海军。

Air Force B-2 stealth bombers, armed with 2,000-pound bombs, struck Iran’s “hardened” ballistic missile facilities, Central Command said in a statement on Sunday. “No nation should ever doubt America’s resolve.”

中央司令部周日在声明中称，空军B‑2隐形轰炸机携带2000磅（约907公斤）炸弹，打击了伊朗的“加固型”弹道导弹设施。“任何国家都不应怀疑美国的决心。”

Central Command said that so far U.S. strikes have hit the Joint Headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, its Aerospace Forces Headquarters, Iranian air defense systems, ballistic missile sites, submarines and anti-ship missile sites.

中央司令部称，截至目前，美军打击目标包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队联合指挥部、其空军总部、伊朗防空系统、弹道导弹基地、潜艇及反舰导弹基地。

In another statement, Central Command said that U.S. forces struck an Iranian warship during the start of the joint American and Israeli attacks on Iran on Saturday. “The ship is currently sinking to the bottom of the Gulf of Oman,” Central Command said on social media. “As the President said, members of Iran’s armed forces, IRGC and police ‘must lay down your weapons.’ Abandon ship.”

中央司令部在另一份声明中表示，周六美以联合对伊发动袭击之初，美军击中一艘伊朗军舰。“该舰目前正沉入阿曼湾海底，”中央司令部在社交媒体上说。“正如总统所言，伊朗武装部队、革命卫队和警察成员‘必须放下武器’，弃船逃生。”

But Iran’s armed forces showed no immediate signs of giving up. Since the U.S. and Israeli military strikes began, Iran has launched hundreds of retaliatory missiles at a wide range of American and Israeli targets in the region. It has also launched strikes at Arab countries it considers allies of the United States, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait.

但伊朗武装部队暂无投降迹象。自美以军事打击开始以来，伊朗向该地区范围内大量美军及以色列目标发射数百枚报复性导弹，同时还袭击了卡塔尔、阿联酋、约旦、巴林、阿曼、科威特等被其视为美国盟友的阿拉伯国家。

周六空袭后，多哈一处驻有卡塔尔皇家空军和外国部队的区域。

In the past, Iran has given warning before launching retaliatory strikes and made known which bases housing U.S. troops it intended to hit. This time, the strikes have been widespread. More than 549 drones, 165 ballistic missiles and two Iranian cruise missiles targeted the United Arab Emirates, the Emirati defense ministry said on Sunday. Most were intercepted but 21 drones struck civilian targets, the ministry said.

以往伊朗发动报复袭击前通常会提前预警，并明确告知将袭击哪些驻有美军的基地。但这一次，袭击范围广泛。阿联酋国防部周日称，伊朗向阿联酋发射了超过549架无人机、165枚弹道导弹及二枚巡航导弹，大部分被拦截，但有21架无人机击中民用目标。

U.S. military officials warned on Sunday that the military has been burning through Tomahawk missiles and other munitions.

美军官员周日警告，军方战斧导弹及其他弹药消耗巨大。

Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a former leader of Central Command, said it would probably become clear in the next 48 to 72 hours whether Iran could maintain its heavy barrage of retaliatory missile strikes as the U.S. and Israeli militaries targeted Iran’s arsenal.

前美国中央司令部司令小肯尼思·麦肯齐上将表示，随着美以军方锁定伊朗武器库，未来48至72小时内将可判断伊朗能否维持密集的报复性导弹袭击。

“It’s a race,” General McKenzie said in an interview.

“这是一场赛跑，”麦肯齐在接受采访时说。

Not all U.S. missile strikes may have hit their intended military targets.

并非所有美军导弹打击都命中了预定军事目标。

The Pentagon said on Saturday it was investigating reports of Iranian civilian deaths caused by military strikes inside the country. More than 100 people, probably most of them children, were killed in a strike that hit a girls’ elementary school in southern Iran, according to Iranian health officials and state media.

五角大楼周六表示，正在调查有关军事打击在伊朗境内造成平民伤亡的报道。伊朗卫生官员及官方媒体称，伊朗南部一所女子小学遭袭，超过100人死亡，其中大部分可能是儿童。

“We are aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for Central Command. “We take these reports seriously and are looking into them. The protection of civilians is of utmost importance, and we will continue to take all precautions available to minimize the risk of unintended harm. Unlike Iran, we have never — and will never — target civilians.”

“我们注意到有关军事行动造成平民伤亡的报道，”中央司令部发言人蒂姆·霍金斯上尉表示。“我们严肃对待这些报道并正在调查。保护平民至关重要，我们将继续采取一切可行措施，最大限度降低意外伤害风险。与伊朗不同，我们从未、也永远不会以平民为攻击目标。”

Mr. Trump said in a Truth Social post on Saturday that “heavy and pinpoint bombing” would continue “uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!”

特朗普周六在Truth Social平台发文称，“重型精准轰炸”将会“整周不间断进行，可能持续到实现我们的中东乃至世界和平的目标”。

A U.S. military official confirmed that U.S. strikes would “continue” but did not say for how long.

一名美军官员证实，美军打击将“继续”，但未说明持续多久。

Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, said the United States would find it difficult to sustain large-scale operations at a rapid pace.

乔治城大学外交学院教授丹尼尔·拜曼表示，美国将难以维持如此高强度、大规模的军事行动。

Despite the size of the U.S. buildup, it is still small compared with the forces assembled for the 2003 invasion of Iraq and appeared more appropriate for a multiday bombing campaign than a long war, he said.

他说，尽管美军集结规模可观，但与2003年入侵伊拉克部署的兵力相比仍然偏小，当前部署更适合为期数天的轰炸行动，而非长期战争。

“The rapid pace of operations requires large numbers of missiles and air assets,” said Mr. Byman, who is also the director of the warfare, irregular threats, and terrorism program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Although the United States has deployed a large force to the region, this rapid pace will place a strain on the platforms and the operators.”

“作战行动的快速推进需要大量导弹与空中力量支撑，”同时担任战略与国际研究中心战争、非常规威胁与恐怖主义项目主任的拜曼说。“尽管美国已向该地区部署大规模兵力，但如此快的节奏仍会对作战平台与操作人员造成巨大压力。”

And it is not at all clear who will control Iran in the coming days.

而且，未来几天谁来掌控伊朗，目前完全不清楚。

“The regime still might be able to stay in power, even if the United States and Israel inflict significant damage on the regime’s leadership and military forces,” Mr. Byman said.

“即便美国和以色列对伊朗政权领导层与军事力量造成重创，该政权仍有可能维持权力，”拜曼说。

When he first ran for president in 2016, Donald J. Trump disavowed the military adventurism of recent years, declaring that “regime change is a proven, absolute failure.” He promised to “stop racing to topple foreign regimes.”

在2016年首次竞选总统时，唐纳德·特朗普曾与近年来的军事冒险主义划清界限，宣称“政权更迭已被证明是彻底的失败”。他承诺要“停止竞相推翻外国政权”。

When Mr. Trump ran for president in 2024, he boasted of starting “no new wars,” and asserted that if Kamala Harris won, “she would get us into a World War III guaranteed,” and send the “sons and daughters” of Americans “to go fight for a war in a country that you’ve never heard of.”

2024年再次竞选总统时，特朗普夸耀自己“没有发动任何新的战争”，并断言如果贺锦丽(Kamala Harris)当选，“她肯定会把我们拖入第三次世界大战”，并把美国的“儿子和女儿”送到“一个你们从未听说过的国家去打仗”。

Barely a year later, Mr. Trump is racing to topple foreign regimes, and is sending American sons and daughters to wage another war in the Middle East. The self-declared “president of PEACE” has chosen to become the president of war after all, unleashing the full power of the U.S. military on Iran with the explicit goal of toppling its government.

仅仅一年之后，特朗普就开始竞相推翻外国政权，并将美国的儿女送往中东发起另一场战争。这位自诩为“和平总统”的人最终选择成为战争总统，动用美国全部军事力量打击伊朗，明确目标就是推翻其政府。

What the Donald Trump of 2016 would think of the Donald Trump of 2026 will never be known. But they are starkly different figures when it comes to overseas intervention. A decade after propelling himself to the highest office by promising to focus on “America first,” Mr. Trump has become increasingly willing to assert power overseas. The bombardment of Iran on Saturday was the eighth time he had ordered the military into action in his second term, even as he has decapitated the government of Venezuela and threatened to overthrow Cuba’s dictator.

2016年的特朗普会如何看待2026年的特朗普，我们无从知晓。但在海外干预问题上，他们形成了鲜明对比。十年前，特朗普正是凭借“美国优先”的承诺登上最高权力宝座；如今他却越来越愿意在海外施展武力。周六对伊朗的轰炸是他在第二个任期内第八次下令动用军队行动；此外他还推翻了委内瑞拉政府，并威胁要推翻古巴的独裁者。

In his middle-of-the-night social media video announcing the opening of this new war, Mr. Trump laid out a bill of particulars against Iran going back nearly half a century, including its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, its support for terrorist groups that attacked Americans and allies, the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the recent massacre of Iranian protesters. But he never explained why those aggressions required action now rather than earlier, or why his thinking evidently changed.

在一段午夜时分发布、宣布开启新战争的社交媒体视频中，特朗普列举了近半个世纪以来针对伊朗的一系列指控，包括发展核武器和弹道导弹、支持袭击美国及其盟友的恐怖组织、1979年占领美国驻德黑兰大使馆，以及最近对伊朗抗议者的屠杀。但他始终没有解释为何现在而非更早采取行动，也没有说明他的想法为何发生了明显转变。

Nor did he reconcile his conflicting statements on the status of the Iranian threat. After joining Israel in attacking Iran last summer, he said that he had “obliterated” the country’s nuclear program. He repeated that claim in last Tuesday’s State of the Union address, and again in his early Saturday morning video. But he did not clarify why it was necessary to strike a program that had already been obliterated.

他也没有对自己关于伊朗威胁问题前后矛盾的言论做出解释。去年夏天与以色列一起攻击伊朗后，他宣称已经“彻底摧毁”了伊朗的核项目。他在上周二的国情咨文中重复了这一说法，又在周六清晨的视频中再次强调。但他并未解释，为何有必要去打击一个已经被“彻底摧毁”的项目。

He did, however, go further than ever in making regime change the goal, calling on Iranians to overthrow their leaders. “When we are finished, take over your government,” Mr. Trump said. “It will be yours to take.” He repeated that in a social media post Saturday afternoon announcing that the strike had killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader — “one of the most evil people in History,” as he put it.

不过，他确实比以往任何时候都更明确地把“政权更迭”作为目标，呼吁伊朗人民推翻其领导人。“当我们完事后，接管你们的政府吧，”特朗普说，“它将属于你们。”他在周六下午宣布袭击已击毙最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊的社交媒体帖子中重复了这一点——用他的话说，这是“历史上最邪恶的人之一”。

But how Iranians should go about taking over was left unclear. Mr. Trump wrote that police and revolutionary guard forces should “peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves” — a remarkable notion suggesting that Iranian security officials would somehow team up with the same people they were gunning down in the streets just weeks ago.

但伊朗人究竟应该如何接管政权，目前尚不清楚。特朗普写道，警察和革命卫队应当“与伊朗爱国者和平融合，共同努力，让国家恢复它应有的伟大”——这一说法颇为惊人，仿佛那些几周前还在街头向抗议者开枪的伊朗安全官员会突然与同一批人联手。

主张对伊朗采取行动的人士说，特朗普仍为完全承诺推翻德黑兰政府，而是把这件事留给了伊朗人民去决定。

“His stated goal here, regime change, is the very thing he ran against in 2016,” said Brandan P. Buck, a research fellow in foreign policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. “Previously, the president used airstrikes, raids and covert military power when he believed it could achieve discrete ends with good optics at little cost. This attack on Iran has broken that formula and constitutes a leap into the unknown.”

“他此次公开的目标是政权更迭，这正是他在2016年竞选时所反对的东西，”自由意志主义智库加图研究所的外交政策研究员布兰登·巴克说。“此前，在认为可以以较小代价达成特定目标，并取得良好的公众形象时，总统才会使用空袭、突袭和秘密军事力量。这次对伊朗的攻击打破了这一模式，是一次跃入未知领域的行动。”

Mr. Trump’s critics quickly resurrected his past statements to accuse him of abandoning his own promises, circulating video clips of his campaign rallies and social media quotes assailing Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Kamala Harris as warmongers.

特朗普的批评者迅速翻出他过去的言论，指责他背弃了自己的承诺，并传播他在竞选集会和社交媒体上抨击贝拉克·奥巴马、乔治·W·布什以及贺锦丽是战争贩子的旧视频和引语。

Mr. Trump, 2012: “Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin — watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.”

特朗普，2012年：“既然奥巴马的民调正在暴跌——就等着看吧，他会对利比亚或伊朗发动打击。他已经走投无路了。”

Mr. Trump, 2013: “Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly — not skilled!”

特朗普，2013年：“记住，我早就预测过奥巴马会因为谈判无能而攻击伊朗——他根本不擅长谈判！”

Mr. Trump, 2016: “We’re going to stop the reckless and costly policy of regime change.”

特朗普，2016年：“我们将停止鲁莽而昂贵的政权更迭政策。”

Mr. Trump, election night 2024: “I’m not going to start wars. I’m going to stop wars.”

特朗普，2024年大选之夜：“我不会发动战争，我会结束战争。”

And there were plenty of quotes from advisers like Stephen Miller, now the deputy White House chief of staff (“Kamala = WWIII. Trump = Peace,” Nov. 1, 2024), and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (“The War Department will not be distracted by democracy-building, interventionism, undefined wars, regime change,” Dec. 6, 2025).

此外还有大量来自其顾问的言论，比如现任白宫副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒（2024年11月1日：“卡玛拉＝第三次世界大战。特朗普＝和平”），以及国防部长皮特·赫格塞思（2025年12月6日：“战争部不会被民主建设、干预主义、不明确的战争和政权更迭所分心。”）

Among those lashing out at Mr. Trump on Saturday were not just liberals but also prominent leaders of the Make America Great movement who complained that he had been captured by the neoconservatives he once spurned, criticism led by the right-wing podcast host Tucker Carlson and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia.

周六抨击特朗普的不仅有自由派人士，还有“让美国再次伟大”运动的一些知名领袖，他们抱怨特朗普被自己曾经鄙视的新保守派所俘获。批评声主要来自右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森和佐治亚州的前众议员乔丽·泰勒·格林。

“It’s always a lie and it’s always America Last,” Ms. Greene, who resigned her seat last month after breaking with Mr. Trump, wrote on social media. “But it feels like the worst betrayal this time because it comes from the very man and the admin who we all believed was different and said no more.”

“永远是谎言，永远是‘美国最后’，”格林在社交媒体上写道。她上个月因与特朗普决裂而辞去议员职务。“但这一次感觉是最严重的背叛，因为它来自那个我们曾相信其与众不同，并说过‘不再如此’的人和他的政府。”

Representative Marlin Stutzman, Republican of Indiana, argued that Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran would head off a worse threat down the road and pave the way for a new Middle East that would be friendlier to the United States. “To those who say, ‘Well, President Trump said he wasn’t going to take us into any wars,’ he’s keeping us out of wars in the long run,” he said on CNN.

印第安纳州共和党众议员马林·斯图茨曼则认为，特朗普对伊朗的攻击将避免未来更大的威胁，并为一个对美国更友好的新中东铺平道路。“对于那些说‘特朗普总统不是说不会让我们卷入任何战争’的人，我要说，从长远来看他是在让我们远离战争，”他在CNN上表示。

Mr. Trump’s increasing willingness to deploy military force underscores the broader change between his first term and second term. He is far more comfortable using the instruments of power than he was the last time around, at home as well as abroad. What he sometimes threatened or considered doing in his first stint in the White House, he more readily acts on now, whether it be sending federal forces into American streets, prosecuting his perceived enemies, purging the government of those deemed disloyal or imposing tariffs on countries around the world.

特朗普日益愿意动用军事力量，这凸显出其第一任期与第二任期之间更广泛的转变。无论在国内还是在国外，他如今都能更加自如地使用权力工具。在首个任期内他只是威胁或考虑过的事情，如今更容易付诸行动——无论是把联邦部队派上美国街头、起诉他认为的敌人、清洗被视为不忠诚的官员，还是对世界各国加征关税。

The team he assembled in the first four years included conventional Republicans or career military officers who often restrained his most radical impulses. But there is no John F. Kelly, Jim Mattis, Mark T. Esper or Mark A. Milley this time around. Instead, he has surrounded himself with more aggressive break-the-china advisers pushing for more ambitious action and with figures like Mr. Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, who view their jobs as facilitating the president’s desires rather than talking him out of them.

第一个四年里，他组建的团队中有传统共和党人或职业军官，他们往往会约束他最激进的冲动。但这一次，没有约翰·凯利、詹姆斯·马蒂斯、马克·埃斯珀或马克·米利。取而代之的是一群更激进、喜欢打破常规、推动更大胆行动的顾问；以及像赫格塞思、国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和白宫幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯这样的人，他们把自己的职责视为促成总统的愿望，而不是劝阻他。

Mr. Trump’s journey as commander in chief has been a fitful one. He had no experience in either the military or public office when he first arrived in the Oval Office in January 2017. He promoted a more aggressive war against the Islamic State, but sometimes hesitated to use force, at one point calling off a retaliatory military strike on Iran with just minutes to go, deeming it not worth the casualties.

特朗普作为三军统帅的历程充满了起伏。2017年1月首次入主白宫时，他既无军旅经验，也无公职经历。他力主对伊斯兰国发动更猛烈的战争，但有时又对动用武力犹豫不决，曾在最后几分钟叫停对伊朗的报复性打击，认为不值得付出伤亡代价。

He was intent on pulling back from much of the world, seeking to bring U.S. troops home from places like South Korea, Germany and Syria. He negotiated a peace agreement with the Taliban to withdraw all American forces from Afghanistan, a deal then executed by his successor, President Joseph R. Biden Jr., in a disastrous operation.

他一度执意从世界许多地区撤出，试图将美军从韩国、德国和叙利亚等地撤回。他与塔利班谈判达成协议，准备撤出所有驻阿富汗美军，这一协议最终由其继任者、拜登总统执行，却演变成了一场灾难性的行动。

But he was also emboldened when a U.S. strike in 2020 targeted and killed Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani without instigating the devastating reprisals or prolonged regional war that some critics had predicted. Likewise, in this second term, the successful commando raid that captured President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela also energized Mr. Trump.

但他也因2020年美军空袭击毙伊朗将军卡西姆·苏莱曼尼受到鼓舞，因为那次行动并未引发一些批评者所预言的毁灭性报复或长期地区战争。同样，在第二任期内，成功抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的突击行动也让特朗普更加自信。

His public posture, however, has veered wildly over the past year. One moment, he is presenting himself as a historic peacemaker, forming a so-called Board of Peace and griping that he has not won the Nobel Peace Prize while boasting, inaccurately, that he has ended eight wars — including one with Iran. The next moment, he is threatening to seize Greenland, take back the Panama Canal, strangle Cuba and even go after Colombia’s president as he did Venezuela’s.

然而，过去一年里他的公开姿态摇摆不定。一会儿，他把自己塑造成历史性的和平缔造者，成立所谓的“和平委员会”，抱怨自己还没有获得诺贝尔和平奖，同时不准确地吹嘘自己结束了包括与伊朗冲突在内的八场战争；下一刻，他又威胁要夺取格陵兰、收回巴拿马运河、扼杀古巴，甚至像对待委内瑞拉总统那样对付哥伦比亚总统。

The outcome of Mr. Trump’s geopolitical gamble will depend not just on how the military operation proceeds, but what comes next. Success has a way of making voters forget about broken promises. There is little love lost for the Tehran regime, and video showed Iranians in the streets cheering reports of Ayatollah Khamenei’s death. If Mr. Trump manages to push the remaining government from power, he will have something to boast about that none of his predecessors dared try.

特朗普这场地缘政治豪赌的结果不仅取决于军事行动的进展，也取决于接下来会发生什么。成功往往能让选民忘记被打破的承诺。人们对德黑兰政权几乎没有多少好感，视频显示，伊朗民众走上街头，为哈梅内伊之死的消息而欢呼。如果特朗普真的能将剩余政府赶下台，他将拥有一个可以夸耀的成就——这是他的前任们都不敢尝试的事情。

Unlike the so-called forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that helped fuel his political rise, Mr. Trump has not made any major commitment of ground troops in Iran, and seems determined to stick to air power, avoiding the sort of grinding guerrilla warfare that turned Americans against past wars.

不同于阿富汗和伊拉克那些被称为“永久战争”的冲突——它们曾助推他的政治崛起，特朗普并未在伊朗投入大量地面部队，而且似乎决心只依靠空中力量，避免那种曾让美国民众对以往战争心生厌倦的消耗性游击战。

Still, as Mr. Trump himself warned in his overnight video, there could be American casualties. And if the Tehran government does fall, it could result in a replacement that is still hostile to the United States, or in fratricidal chaos, as happened in Libya after Muammar el-Qaddafi was deposed and killed in 2011.

但正如特朗普在凌晨发布的视频中所警告的那样，美国可能会出现伤亡。如果德黑兰政府真的垮台，结果也可能是一个仍然敌视美国的替代政权，或是像2011年卡扎菲被推翻并杀死后的利比亚那样陷入混乱。

One way or the other, his allies were already talking about it being a legacy moment for Mr. Trump. What kind of legacy is not yet clear. But it will not be the one that he originally promised.

无论如何，他的盟友已经开始将此视为特朗普的“历史性时刻”。这将成就怎样的政治遗产目前尚不清楚。但可以确定的是，这不会是他最初承诺过的那种遗产。