The Biden administration announced on Monday broader restrictions on advanced technology that can be sent to China, in an effort to prevent the country from developing its own advanced chips for military equipment and artificial intelligence.

拜登政府周一宣布，将扩大对华先进技术出口的限制，以阻止它开发用于军事装备和人工智能的先进芯片。

The restrictions prohibit the sales of certain types of chips and machinery to China and add more than 100 Chinese companies to a restricted trade list. The move marks the Biden administration’s third major update over the past three years to a set of rules that have tried to cut China off from the world’s most advanced technology.

这些限制措施禁止向中国出售某些类型的芯片和机械，并将100多家中国公司列入限制贸易名单。此举标志着拜登政府在过去三年里第三次对一系列试图将中国与世界上最先进的技术隔绝开来的规则进行重大更新。

The rules are also likely to be the administration’s last on Chinese technology before President-elect Donald J. Trump’s inauguration next month, and they aim to cement the Biden administration’s legacy in slowing down a rival country’s technological progress.

这些规定也可能是下月候任总统特朗普就职典礼之前，拜登政府针对中国技术出台的最后一项规定，目的是巩固拜登政府在减缓竞争对手技术进步方面留下的政治遗产。

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told reporters in a call on Sunday that the move represented “the strongest controls ever enacted by the U.S. to degrade the P.R.C.’s ability to make the most advanced chips that they’re using in their military modernization,” referring to the People’s Republic of China. She said the government had worked closely with experts, industry and allied countries to ensure that “our actions protect national security while minimizing unintended commercial consequences.”

商务部长雷蒙多在周日的电话会议上告诉记者，此举代表了“美国有史以来最严厉的控制措施，目的是削弱中国制造军事现代化中最先进芯片的能力”。她说，政府与专家、产业界和盟国密切合作，确保“我们的行动在保护国家安全的同时，最大限度地减少意外的商业后果”。

National security officials have said that China’s ability to acquire and make advanced computer chips poses a threat to the United States. The chips are crucial for powering artificial intelligence and supercomputers that can be used to launch cyberattacks, design new weapons, erect surveillance systems and increase the military’s ability to respond accurately and rapidly to foreign attacks.

国家安全官员表示，中国获取和制造先进计算机芯片的能力对美国构成了威胁。这些芯片对于驱动人工智能和超级计算机至关重要，人工智能和超级计算机可用于发动网络攻击、设计新武器、建立监视系统，并提高军方对外国攻击做出准确、快速反应的能力。

The rules advance measures the Biden administration issued in October 2022, and again in October 2023. They have been the subject of fierce lobbying by both national security hawks eager to crack down on China and the chip industry, which has argued that controls that are too tight risk hurting U.S. tech leadership.

这些规定是对拜登政府于2022年10月和2023年10月发布的措施所做的升级。急于打击中国的国家安全鹰派和芯片行业围绕这些措施进行了激烈的游说，芯片行业认为，过于严格的控制可能会损害美国的科技领导地位。

Both camps ultimately left their mark on the restrictions issued on Monday. The rules add 140 Chinese companies, many of which make the tools and machinery necessary for manufacturing chips, to a restricted trade list called the entity list — one of the largest batches of additions so far.

两个阵营最终都在周一发布的限制措施中留下了自己的印记。新规将140家中国企业（其中许多生产制造芯片所需的工具和机械）列入了一份名为“实体清单”的限制贸易清单，这是迄今为止规模最大的新增名单之一。

The rules also bar shipments to China of certain advanced memory chips, and establish global restrictions on shipments of roughly two dozen types of equipment used to manufacture chips, effective Dec. 31. They also contain new guidance for U.S. companies to carry out due diligence on the Chinese factories they sell to.

这些规定还禁止向中国出口某些先进的存储芯片，并对大约24种用于制造芯片的设备实施全球限制，从12月31日起生效。它们还包含了新的指导方针，要求美国公司对购买产品的中国工厂进行尽职调查。

But some officials and analysts have said that the regulations were shaped by industry lobbying, and have pointed out certain exceptions that may be favorable to U.S. exporters. For example, the rules set up a new and complicated licensing policy that will allow officials to grant companies special permission to sell to some Chinese factories linked with Huawei, the sanctioned Chinese tech company.

但一些官员和分析人士称，这些规定受到行业游说的影响，并指出了一些可能对美国出口商的利益倾斜的例外情况。例如，新规制定了一项新的、复杂的许可政策，允许官员给予企业特别许可，向与受制裁的中国科技公司华为有关的一些中国工厂出售产品。

Critics also say that the administration could have gone more aggressively after major Chinese chip makers that are linked to the country’s technology development efforts. The rules also target established Chinese factories that have been operational and fully outfitted with machinery for years, but they do not include many Chinese facilities that are now under construction that could soon be buying large volumes of machinery, analysts said.

批评者还表示，政府本可以更积极地打击与中国技术发展努力有关的中国主要芯片制造商。分析人士称，这些规定也针对那些已投入运营多年，并配备了全套机械设备的中国老牌工厂，但不包括许多目前在建的中国工厂，它们可能很快就会购买大量机械设备。

The stocks of semiconductor equipment makers, like Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research, rose on Monday as investors digested the impact of the rules.

随着投资者逐渐消化了新规的影响，应用材料公司、KLA和Lam Research等半导体设备制造商的股票在周一上涨。

The regulations stretch more than 200 pages and were described by some analysts as “absurdly complicated.” Gregory C. Allen, a technology analyst at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, said the complexity reflected the intense negotiations that had gone into the rules.

这些规定长达200多页，一些分析人士形容它“极度复杂”。国际与战略研究中心的技术分析师格雷戈里·艾伦表示，这种复杂性反映了制定规则过程中进行的激烈谈判。

“The longer the rule is, the more different actors were having a whack at it,” Mr. Allen said.

艾伦说，“规则越长，就意味着有越多不同的参与者在其中发挥作用。”

Some of the biggest actors, analysts and officials say, were the companies that make machinery used to manufacture semiconductors. These companies have argued to government officials that controls that apply solely to U.S. firms and not international competitors will hurt U.S. tech leadership, without effectively restraining China’s ambitions.

分析人士和官员表示，其中一些最大的参与者是用于生产半导体机械的制造公司。这些公司向政府官员表示，仅适用美国公司而不针对国际竞争对手的控制措施将会损害美国的科技领导地位，不会有效遏制中国的雄心。

Shipments of chip-making equipment to China from firms like ASML in the Netherlands and Tokyo Electron in Japan have surged in recent years, as those companies have stepped in to provide China with the technology that U.S. companies cannot.

近年来，荷兰的阿斯麦和日本的东京电子等公司向中国出口的芯片制造设备数量激增，因为这些公司向中国提供美国公司不能提供的技术。

U.S. officials spent many months negotiating with the Japanese and Dutch governments to encourage them to issue their own restrictions on the industry. The governments ultimately reached an agreement in principle in September, people familiar with the negotiations said, though neither Japan nor the Netherlands has publicly announced the deal.

美国官员花费数月时间与日本和荷兰政府进行谈判，鼓励他们对该行业发布自己的限制措施。知情人士表示，三国政府最终于9月达成了原则性协议，但日本和荷兰都没有公开宣布这项协议。

Supporters maintain that bringing in other countries ultimately makes the action stronger, but critics say it has a cost: In the many months that the United States worked to get allies onboard, Chinese factories have been able to buy billions of dollars of technology. It remains unclear when Japan and the Netherlands will put their own rules into effect.

支持者认为，让其他国家加入最终会使行动更加有力，但批评人士表示，这是有代价的：在美国努力争取盟友加入的几个月里，中国工厂得以购买数十亿美元的技术。目前尚不清楚日本和荷兰何时会实施自己的规定。

Mr. Allen said some parts of the new rules were “a really remarkable expansion of authority” for the United States. For example, the restrictions contain global provisions that will prevent companies in foreign countries from shipping certain machinery to China, if they include computer chips that were made using American machinery or technology.

艾伦说，新规定的某些部分对美国来说是“真正显著的授权扩张”。例如，这些限制包含全球性条款，将阻止外国公司向中国运送某些机械，如果这些机械中包含了使用美国机械或技术制造的计算机芯片。

Those global rules exempt certain countries that officials say have the capability to impose their own comparable rules, essentially creating a pathway for allies like Japan and the Netherlands to impose their own controls.

这些全球规则豁免了某些国家，美国官员表示，这些国家有能力实施自己的类似规则，这实际上为日本和荷兰等盟友实施自己的控制创造了途径。

The rules were designed in part to address incidents in which U.S. companies had used offshore facilities to skirt bans on exporting directly from the United States, officials said. A report published in November by Mr. Allen showed that, in recent years, U.S. semiconductor equipment companies had made an increasing volume of their equipment sales to China from facilities outside the United States.

官员们表示，制定这些规定一定程度上是为了解决美国公司利用离岸设施规避直接从美国出口的禁令的问题。艾伦于去年11月发表的一份报告显示，近年来，美国半导体设备公司从美国以外的工厂向中国销售的设备数量越来越多。

But Mr. Allen said that, though this authority was powerful, it contained many exceptions. “You look at how they actually used this authority, and there are all these carve-outs, mechanisms by which this stuff can be shipped” to China, Mr. Allen added.

但是艾伦表示，虽然这项授权权力很大，但也有很多例外。他还说，“注意他们实际上是怎样使用这种授权的，里面有各种各样的例外情况和机制，货物可以通过这些机制运出”，被送往中国。

It is still unclear how the Chinese government will respond to the measures. In recent years, China has expanded its own export-control laws, giving it more ability to halt exports of products like rare earth minerals, and has created an “unreliable entity list” to penalize companies that undermine national interests.

目前还不清楚中国政府如何应对这些措施。近年来，中国扩大了自己的出口管制法律，使其更有能力停止稀土矿物等产品的出口，并制定了一份“不可靠实体清单”，惩罚损害其国家利益的公司。

In a news conference on Monday, Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that China had always firmly opposed what he called the “abuse of export-control measures and malicious blockade and suppression of China.”

在周一的新闻发布会上，中国外交部发言人林剑表示，中国一贯坚决反对他所称的“滥用出口管制措施，对中国进行恶意封锁和打压”。

“China will take resolute measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” he said.

他说：“中方将采取坚决措施，坚定维护中国企业正当合法权益。”

Paul Triolo, an analyst at the consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group, said that Beijing’s response would take time to unfold but would “almost certainly include targeted actions against U.S. technology companies in China.” Last year, China had launched a cybersecurity investigation against the U.S. chip maker Micron, he pointed out, after the United States put a major Chinese memory-chip maker on the entity list.

咨询公司奥尔布赖特石桥集团的分析师崔奥罗(Paul Triolo)表示，北京的回应需要时间来展开，但“几乎肯定会包括针对美国在华科技公司的针对性行动”。他指出，去年，在美国将一家主要的中国存储芯片制造商列入实体名单后，中国对美国芯片制造商美光发起了一项网络安全调查。

China’s efforts to develop its own independent technology supply chains, along with the export controls that the United States has issued in recent years, are increasingly splitting the world into two spheres when it comes to advanced technologies.

在先进技术方面，中国发展自己的独立技术供应链的努力，以及美国近年来实施的出口管制导致世界正日益一分为二。

Global companies have been struggling to straddle that divide. For many companies, China remains an essential economic partner, as home to most of the world’s electronics factories and as a huge consumer market in its own right.

跨国公司一直在努力跨越这一鸿沟。对许多公司来说，中国仍然是一个重要的经济伙伴，因为它是世界上大多数电子工厂的所在地，而且本身也是一个巨大的消费市场。

But China is also now increasingly recognized as America’s biggest rival, the only other government with the ability and intent to challenge the United States on the world stage. China has unabashedly deployed foreign technology and leaned on private companies to strengthen the military, a situation that U.S. officials now see as untenable.

但中国现在也日益被视为美国最大的对手，是唯一一个有能力和意图在世界舞台上挑战美国的政府。中国毫不掩饰地部署外国技术，依靠民营公司来加强军事力量，现在，美国官员认为这种局面不能再继续下去。

The police officers came for Ayshem Mamut a week ago at her home in northwest China.

一周前，警察来到阿依夏木·马木提（音）位于中国西北边陲地区的家中。

They told her to pack her bags. She could have been taken to a prison, a detention center or an internment camp, just like many other ethnic Uyghur Muslims who have vanished, sometimes for years.

他们叫她收拾行李。她本以为会被送进监狱、拘留中心或拘禁营，像许多维吾尔族穆斯林那样与外界失去联系，有时长达数年。

But four days later, the 73-year-old Chinese citizen was in Virginia having a Thanksgiving meal with two sons she had not seen in 20 years and four grandchildren she had never met.

但四天后，这名73岁的中国公民却在美国弗吉尼亚州与两个已经20年没见面的儿子和四个从未见过的孙辈一起吃了丰盛的感恩节大餐。

She sometimes talked, sometimes cried, as they ate traditional Uyghur dishes of noodle soup, lamb stew, broiled chicken, salad and rice with chickpeas.

他们一起吃着传统的汤面、炖羊肉、烤鸡、沙拉和鹰嘴豆闷饭等维族菜肴，她时而说话，时而流眼。

Last week, U.S. officials said that China had freed three American men, one of them an F.B.I. informant, in exchange for two imprisoned Chinese spies and at least one other Chinese citizen. But as part of that deal, China also quietly agreed to allow Ms. Mamut and two other Uyghurs, one an American citizen, to leave the country for the United States.

美国官员上周表示，中国释放了三名美国男子，其中一人是联邦调查局的线人，作为交换，美国释放了两名被监禁的中国间谍和至少一名中国公民。但作为交换的一部分，中国还不张声色地同意允许马木提和另外两名维吾尔人（其中一人是美国公民）离开中国前往美国。

The Biden administration has not made public the part of the deal involving the Uyghurs, and it is being reported here for the first time.

拜登政府尚未公布交换协议中涉及维吾尔人的部分，这篇报道是首次将其公诸报端。

“Waking up in America and seeing my family, especially my grandchildren, is nothing short of a dream come true,” Ms. Mamut said.

“在美国一觉醒来看到我的家人，尤其是我的孙子孙女们，可以说是梦想成真了，”马木提说。

The story of the Uyghurs’ journey to freedom is one of persistent efforts by anguished family members and American officials in the face of an increasingly authoritarian China. U.S. officials privately raised the cases for years in talks with their Chinese counterparts. President Biden mentioned Ms. Mamut twice in face-to-face meetings with Xi Jinping, China’s leader.

这些维吾尔人获得自由是痛苦不堪的家人以及美国官员在日益专制的中国面前用坚持不懈的努力换来的。多年来，美国官员在与中国同行见面时，都会在私下里提到这些维吾尔人。拜登总统在与中国领导人习近平的两次会晤中都提到了马木提。

China had barred Ms. Mamut from leaving the country because her oldest son, Nury Turkel, was involved in advocacy for Uyghur rights.

中国曾一直禁止马木提出国，因为她的大儿子努里·特克尔参与了倡导维吾尔族权益的活动。

“It’s amazing to me that she was able to keep it together all those years,” Mr. Turkel, 54, a former U.S. official and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said in an interview. He hugged his mother on the tarmac and wept last Wednesday night after she stepped off a Boeing 767 chartered by the U.S. government at a military base in San Antonio, Texas.

“她这么多年都熬过来了，真是了不起，”现年54岁的特克尔在接受采访时说，他曾任美国官员，现任哈德逊研究所高级研究员。上周三晚，美国政府包租的波音767飞机降落在得克萨斯州圣安东尼奥的一个军事基地，母亲从飞机上走下来后，特克尔在停机坪上拥抱了母亲，还流下了眼泪。

“Her ability to endure, to not lose sight, to manage her disappointment is something that personally I can’t do as a free person.”

“她身上那种承受磨难、不迷失方向、管理失望情绪的能力，是我作为一个自由人所做不到的。”

拜登总统曾两次向中国国家主席习近平提到马木提，包括两人上个月在秘鲁利马见面时。

Mr. Turkel and his family have experienced the hardships of Chinese rule for more than a half-century. Ms. Mamut gave birth to him in a re-education camp in Kashgar in 1970, during China’s Cultural Revolution. He came to the United States as a graduate student in 1995, was granted asylum and then invited his parents to visit him. They came in 2000 and again in 2004, when he graduated from American University’s law school.

特克尔和他的家庭曾在中国统治下经历了半个多世纪的苦难。马木提1970年在喀什的一个再教育营里生下了大儿子，那是在中国的文化大革命期间。1995年，特克尔以研究生的身份来到美国，后来获得了庇护，他曾邀请父母来美国探亲。他们曾在2000年来过一次，2004年，他从美国大学的法学院毕业时，他们又来过一次。

Mr. Turkel became a leading advocate for Uyghur human rights, including working on cases of Uyghurs detained by the U.S. military in Guantánamo Bay in Cuba during the post-9/11 wars. In 2009, his parents wanted to visit him in the Washington area. When the police refused to give them their passports, they realized they were barred from traveling because of Mr. Turkel’s advocacy work. Mr. Turkel then began trying to bring pressure on the Chinese government to let his parents leave the country.

特克尔后来成了维族人权的主要倡导者，他处理过的案子包括“9·11”事件后被美军关押在古巴关塔那摩湾的维吾尔人。2009年，他的父母想来华盛顿地区看望他。警方拒绝将护照还给他们后，他们意识到，由于特克尔的倡导工作，他们被禁止出国旅行。那之后，特克尔开始试图向中国政府施压，让其允许他的父母离开。

Chinese officials allowed Mr. Turkel’s father, Ablikim Mömin, a retired professor, to travel for two weeks in 2015 to meet with his four sons in Turkey, but their mother was forced to stay at home.

中国官员曾允许特克尔的父亲、退休教授阿布力克木·莫明 （音）2015年前往土耳其两周，与他的四个儿子见面，但他们的母亲被迫留在家里。

2004年，特尔克从法学院毕业后与母亲马木提和父亲阿布力克木·莫明的合影。

Mr. Turkel spoke with officials in the Obama and Trump administrations about his parents’ situation. When President Donald J. Trump visited Beijing in 2017, he gave Mr. Xi a list of people his administration wanted freed. Mr. Turkel’s parents were on the list, as was Ilham Tohti, a Uyghur professor sentenced to life in prison in 2014 on a conviction of “separatism.”

特克尔曾向奥巴马政府和特朗普政府的官员提出父母的情况。时任总统特朗普2017年访问北京时曾交给习近平一个名单，上面是他的政府希望中国释放的人。特克尔的父母和维吾尔族教师伊力哈木·土赫提都在那个名单上。2014年，伊力哈木以“分裂国家”的罪名被判处无期徒刑。

In May 2020, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, appointed Mr. Turkel to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, where he would serve for four years. Mr. Turkel told Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken about his parents’ plight during an online meeting in the fall of 2021.

2020年5月，时任众议院议长的加利福尼亚州民主党人南希·佩洛西任命特克尔为美国国际宗教自由委员会委员，任期四年。2021年秋，特克尔曾在一次网络会议上向国务卿安东尼·布林肯描述了他父母的困境。

In December 2021, China announced sanctions against four U.S. officials on the religious freedom commission, including Mr. Turkel, in retaliation for sanctions that the Biden administration had imposed on Chinese officials for abuses in Xinjiang.

2021年12月，中国宣布对包括特克尔在内的四名美国宗教自由委员会官员实施制裁，以报复拜登政府对中国官员在新疆的侵权行为实施的制裁。

特克尔在众议院为对抗中国共产党设置的特别委员会的听证会上，摄于2023年3月。

Mr. Turkel spoke with R. Nicholas Burns, the designated U.S. ambassador to China, before he left for Beijing. Mr. Burns later asked U.S. diplomats to check on Mr. Turkel’s parents in the city of Urumqi. “He made a personal commitment,” Mr. Turkel said.

在尼古拉斯·伯恩斯前往北京就任美国驻华大使前，特克尔曾与他交谈。伯恩斯后来曾让美国外交官去乌鲁木齐看望特克尔的父母。“他做出了个人承诺，”特克尔说。

Mr. Turkel’s father died in April 2022, at age 83. Mr. Turkel was on an official trip to Uzbekistan but could not fly to China for the funeral because of the sanctions against him.

特克尔的父亲已于2022年4月去世，享年83岁。特克尔当时正在以官员身份访问乌兹别克斯坦，但由于中国政府的制裁，他不能飞往中国参加葬礼。

“Because of years of enforced family separation, and along with social isolation, he was losing it,” Mr. Turkel said. “He was wanting to go.”

“由于家人多年来被迫分离，以及在社会上处于隔离状态，他已不想活下去，”特克尔说。“他想一走了事。”

Mr. Burns invited Ms. Mamut, now widowed, to visit him in Beijing, but security officers at the airport in Urumqi kept her from boarding a plane, Mr. Turkel said.

马木提丧偶后，伯恩斯曾邀请她来北京看看，但乌鲁木齐机场的安检人员没有让她登机，特克尔说。

“That was a public slap to all of us,” he said. “It was morally crushing for my mom.”

“那对我们所有人来说是一次公开的训斥，”他说。“对我妈妈来说是一次精神上的沉重打击。”

U.S.-China relations hit a low point in early 2023 after the Pentagon discovered a Chinese spy balloon above the continental United States. Mr. Turkel was losing hope and expressed his frustration in congressional testimony and essays.

2023年初，五角大楼在美国大陆上空发现了一只中国间谍气球后，中美关系跌至低谷。特克尔失去了希望，他曾在国会听证会上和文章中表达过自己的沮丧。

But U.S. officials persisted. Mr. Turkel said that Mr. Biden mentioned his mother in a meeting with Mr. Xi in Woodside, Calif., that November, then again last month in Lima, Peru. Still, as recently as early last month, Mr. Turkel did not sound optimistic when we spoke at an event.

但美国官员们仍坚持不懈。特克尔说，拜登去年11月与习近平在加利福尼亚州伍德赛德见面时提了他的母亲，并在上个月在秘鲁利马与习近平会晤时再次提了他的母亲。尽管如此，我们在上月初的一次活动上谈起这件事时，特克尔听起来并不乐观。

Then on Nov. 24, a White House official told Mr. Turkel that his mother would be on a U.S. government plane leaving China later that week. Around the same time, the police officers were visiting Ms. Mamut’s home. Mr. Turkel spoke to her by phone and told her to go along with whatever the officers suggested.

后来，白宫官员在11月24日告诉特克尔，他的母亲将于那周晚些时候乘坐美国政府的飞机离开中国。大约在同一时间，警察来到了马木提家中。特克尔与母亲通了电话，叫她按照警察的所有要求去做。

Ms. Mamut spent that Monday seeing a dentist, visiting her husband’s grave and packing a bag with traditional Uyghur silk cloth that she could use to make clothes for her grandchildren in America. The next morning, she boarded a charter plane to Beijing with police officers and the other two Uyghurs, a man and his daughter.

在接下来的周一，马木提去看了牙医，给丈夫扫了墓，还准备了一箱子维吾尔族传统丝绸，她要用这些丝绸给在美国的孙辈做衣服。第二天早上，她和另外两名维吾尔族人（一名男子和他的女儿）与警察一起登上了飞往北京的包机。

The three of them stayed in a government guesthouse in Beijing on Tuesday night. Their planned departure was delayed by six hours, making them nervous. Then on Wednesday night, they were taken to the airport, where the U.S. government charter plane awaited them.

周二晚，他们三人住进了北京的一个政府招待所。他们原定的出发时间被推迟了六个小时，这让他们很紧张。后来，他们在周三晚间被带到机场，美国政府的包机已在那里等候他们。

Mr. Burns walked with them up the plane’s stairs and took photos inside with them. The three freed American prisoners — Mark Swidan, Kai Li and John Leung — were on the flight, as was Roger D. Carstens, the U.S. special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, and other American officials. One of the diplomats put Ms. Mamut on the phone with her son.

伯恩斯把他们送上飞机的舷梯后，在机舱里与他们合了影。那三名从监狱里释放出来的美国人——马克·斯威丹、李凯和梁成运——已在飞机上，负责人质事务的总统特使罗杰·卡斯滕斯和其他美国官员也在飞机上。其中一名外交官让马木提与儿子通了电话。

The Uyghurs on the plane burst into tears after it took off.

飞机起飞后，机上的维吾尔人忍不住哭了起来。

Mr. Turkel and a younger brother, Mamutjan, boarded their own flight to go from Northern Virginia to San Antonio.

特克尔和弟弟马穆詹登上他们从北弗吉尼亚飞往圣安东尼奥的飞机。

At a refueling stop in Alaska, the group traveling from China got separate calls from Mr. Biden and Mr. Blinken. I was on Mr. Blinken’s official plane returning from a diplomatic trip to Rome when he made that call. After we landed outside Washington, an aide told me that Mr. Blinken had spoken to the three freed American men but did not mention there were also Uyghurs on the trip.

从中国出发的飞机在阿拉斯加加油时，机上的乘客分别接到了拜登和布林肯打来的电话。我当时正在布林肯返回美国的公务机上，他刚结束了他的罗马外交之旅。飞机在华盛顿郊外降落后，一名助手告诉我，布林肯已与三名获释的美国人通了电话，但没提那架飞机上也有维吾尔人。

Ms. Mamut left a message on Mr. Turkel’s voice mail during the Anchorage stop: “We are in America.”

马木提在安克雷奇停留期间给特克尔的语音信箱发了语音短信：“我们在美国。”

Hours later, near midnight, they were in each other’s arms on the tarmac in Texas.

几小时后，在当天午夜前不久，他们在得克萨斯州的停机坪上拥抱在一起。

President Biden and President-elect Donald J. Trump now agree on one thing: The Biden Justice Department has been politicized.

拜登总统和候任总统特朗普现在在一件事上达成了共识：拜登政府的司法部已经被政治化了。

In pardoning his son Hunter Biden on Sunday night, the incumbent president sounded a lot like his successor by complaining about selective prosecution and political pressure, questioning the fairness of a system that Mr. Biden had until now long defended.

周日晚在赦免儿子亨特·拜登时，这位现任总统听起来很像他的继任者，他抱怨选择性的检控和政治压力，质疑拜登此前一直捍卫的司法制度的公正。

“No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son — and that is wrong,” Mr. Biden said in a statement announcing the pardon. “Here’s the truth,” he added. “I believe in the justice system, but as I have wrestled with this, I also believe raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice.”

“任何一个理性的人，只要看过亨特案的事实，就会得出这样的结论，亨特之所以被单独挑出来，只是因为他是我的儿子——而这样做是不对的，”拜登在宣布赦免的声明中说。“这是事实，”他还说。“我相信司法系统，但在我努力解决这个问题的同时，我也相信赤裸裸的政治已经感染了这一程序，并导致了司法不公。”

Mr. Biden’s decision to use the extraordinary power of executive clemency to wipe out his son’s convictions on gun and tax charges came despite repeated statements by him and his aides that he would not do so. Just this past summer, after his son was convicted at trial, the president rejected the idea of a pardon and said that “I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process.” The statement he issued on Sunday night made clear he did not accept the outcome or respect the process.

尽管拜登本人和助手多次表示他不会这么做，他还是决定动用行政赦免的特殊权力，撤销其子在枪支和税务方面的指控。就在刚刚过去的夏天，他的儿子在审判中被定罪后，总统否认有赦免的想法，并表示“我将接受此案的结果，并将继续尊重司法程序”。他在周日晚上发表的声明表明，他不接受这个结果，也不尊重司法程序。

The pardon and Mr. Biden’s stated rationale for granting it will inevitably muddy the political waters as Mr. Trump prepares to take office with plans to use the Justice Department and F.B.I. to pursue “retribution” against his political adversaries. Mr. Trump has long argued that the justice system has been “weaponized” against him and that he is the victim of selective prosecution, much the way Mr. Biden has now said his son was.

在特朗普准备上任、计划利用司法部和联邦调查局对政治对手进行“报复”之际，拜登的赦免和他所陈述的赦免理由将不可避免地制造更混乱的政治局面。特朗普长期以来一直辩称，为了对付他，司法系统已经被“武器化”，他是选择性起诉的受害者，就像拜登现在说他的儿子一样。

Their arguments are, of course, different in important respects. Mr. Trump contends that the two indictments against him by Mr. Biden’s Justice Department amounted to a partisan witch hunt targeting the sitting president’s main rival. Mr. Biden did not explicitly accuse the Justice Department of being biased against his family, but suggested that it was influenced by Republican politicians who have waged a long public campaign assailing Hunter Biden.

当然，他们的论点在一些重要方面有所不同。特朗普声称，拜登政府的司法部对他的两宗起诉相当于针对现任总统的主要竞争对手的党派政治迫害。拜登没有明确指责司法部对他的家人存有偏见，但暗示司法部受到了共和党政客的影响，这些政客发起了一场长期运动，攻击亨特·拜登。

As it happens, the Justice Department has rejected both accusations. The prosecutions of Mr. Trump and the younger Mr. Biden were each handled by separate special counsels appointed specifically to insulate the cases from politics, and senior department officials have denied that politics entered the equation against either man. There is no evidence that Mr. Biden had any involvement in Mr. Trump’s cases.

司法部对双方的这种指责都予以否认。对特朗普和亨特·拜登的起诉分别由专门任命的特别检察官处理，目的是使案件不受政治影响。国务院高级官员否认在两人的案件中存在政治考量。没有证据表明拜登介入了特朗普的案件。

周五，美国总统乔·拜登与家人在马萨诸塞州南塔基特，他身后是亨特·拜登。

But Mr. Biden’s pardon will make it harder for Democrats to defend the integrity of the Justice Department and stand against Mr. Trump’s unapologetic plans to use it for political purposes even as he seeks to install Kash Patel, an adviser who has vowed to “come after” the president-elect’s enemies, as the next director of the F.B.I. It will also be harder for Democrats to criticize Mr. Trump for his prolific use of the pardon power to absolve friends and allies, some of whom could have been witnesses against him in previous investigations.

但是，拜登的赦免会让民主党人更难捍卫司法部的公正，也更难抵制特朗普毫不掩饰地将司法部用于政治目的的计划——他甚至正在试图任命卡什·帕特尔为下一任联邦调查局局长，这名顾问发誓要“追究”候任总统的敌人。民主党人也更难批评特朗普大量使用赦免权来赦免朋友和盟友，其中一些人本可能在之前的调查中成为对他不利的证人。

“While as a father I certainly understand President @JoeBiden’s natural desire to help his son by pardoning him, I am disappointed that he put his family ahead of the country,” Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, a Democrat, wrote on social media. “This is a bad precedent that could be abused by later presidents and will sadly tarnish his reputation.”

“作为一名父亲，我当然理解拜登总统希望通过赦免他的儿子来帮助他的本能愿望，但我对他把家人置于国家之上感到失望，”民主党人、科罗拉多州州长贾里德·波利斯在社交媒体上写道。“这是一个糟糕的先例，可能会被以后的总统滥用，并将遗憾地玷污他的声誉。”

Representative Greg Stanton, Democrat of Arizona, disputed the president’s argument that politics was behind his son’s prosecution. “I respect President Biden, but I think he got this one wrong,” he said online. “This wasn’t a politically-motivated prosecution. Hunter committed felonies, and was convicted by a jury of his peers.”

亚利桑那州民主党众议员格雷格·斯坦顿反驳了总统关于他儿子被起诉背后存在政治因素的说法。“我尊重拜登总统，但我认为他这次错了，”他在网上说。“这不是出于政治动机的起诉。亨特犯了重罪，并被普通公民组成的陪审团定罪。

Other Democrats tried to draw a distinction between the Biden and Trump matters. Former Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said that no prosecutor would have brought the charges against Hunter Biden and that therefore the pardon was warranted.

其他民主党人试图将拜登和特朗普的问题区分开来。前司法部长小埃里克·H·霍尔德表示，没有检察官会对亨特·拜登发起公诉，因此赦免是合理的。

“Ask yourself a vastly more important question,” he wrote on social media. “Do you really think Kash Patel is qualified to lead the world’s preeminent law enforcement investigative organization? Obvious answer: hell no.”

“问问你自己一个重要得多的问题，”他在社交媒体上写道。“你真的认为卡什·帕特尔有资格领导举世闻名的执法调查组织吗？答案显而易见：绝对不可能。

To be sure, the cases against Mr. Trump and the younger Mr. Biden are hardly comparable. Mr. Trump was charged with illegally trying to overturn an election that he lost so that he could hold on to power and, in a separate indictment, with endangering national security and trying to obstruct justice by taking classified documents when he left office and refusing to return them. Those cases are now being dropped because of his election.

平心而论，特朗普和亨特·拜登的案件几乎没有可比性。特朗普被指控用非法手段试图推翻他输掉的选举，以便能继续掌权，而在另一份起诉书中，他被控危及国家安全，在卸任时拿走机密文件并拒绝归还，试图妨碍司法公正。这些案件现在因为他的当选而被撤销。

Hunter Biden was convicted of lying on a firearms application form about his drug addiction and pleaded guilty to failing to pay taxes that he later did pay, with penalties. At least some legal experts have agreed with the president’s contention that such offenses would normally have been resolved without felony charges.

亨特·拜登因在枪支申请表上就他的毒瘾撒谎而被定罪，并且因逃税而认罪，但后来他缴纳了税款，并被处以罚款。至少一些法律专家同意总统的观点，即此类罪行通常会在没有重罪指控的情况下结案。

But the president broke his own commitment about intervening in the case. In his statement, he noted that he had said he would “not interfere with the Justice Department’s decision-making and I kept my word even as I have watched my son being selectively, and unfairly, prosecuted.” He did not acknowledge that he did not keep his word about forgoing a pardon.

但总统违背了自己不干预此案的承诺。他在声明中指出，他说过他“不会干预司法部的决策，我信守诺言，尽管我看到我的儿子被选择性地、不公平地起诉”。他不承认自己没有遵守放弃赦免的诺言。

Mr. Trump wasted little time seizing on the pardon to make apples-and-oranges comparisons. “Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years?” he wrote on social media, referring to the rioters who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to stop Congress from certifying Mr. Trump’s defeat. “Such an abuse and miscarriage of Justice!”

特朗普立即抓住这次赦免的机会，拿来与风马牛不相及的事情进行比较。他在社交媒体上写道：“乔对亨特的赦免是否包括现在已经被监禁多年的J-6人质？”他指的是2021年1月6日为阻止国会认证特朗普败选而冲击国会大厦的暴徒。“真是滥用司法、徇私枉法！”

亨特·拜登今年9月承认了九项联邦税务指控，而在此之前，他曾在6月份因与枪支有关的重罪指控而被定罪。

Mr. Biden’s pardon will also give ammunition to Republicans who have contended that Hunter Biden was guilty of wrongdoing beyond the charges for which he was actually prosecuted. A House Republican investigation made clear that the president’s son traded on his father’s name in business, but never proved that the elder Mr. Biden took action as vice president or president to benefit Hunter.

拜登的赦免也将为共和党人提供口实，他们认为亨特·拜登的不法行为超出了他实际被起诉的指控。众议院共和党人的一项调查清楚地表明，总统的儿子在商业上利用了父亲的名字，但从未证明拜登在担任副总统或总统期间采取了有利于亨特的行动。

The pardon Mr. Biden issued to his son specifically covers any offenses “which he has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from Jan. 1, 2014, through Dec. 1, 2024,” not just the tax and gun charges. That will protect Hunter Biden from any further investigation that Mr. Trump could have ordered the Justice Department or Mr. Patel’s F.B.I. to conduct once taking office.

拜登对儿子发布的特赦令明确界定了范围是“在2014年1月1日至2024年12月1日期间，他犯下或可能犯下或参与的任何罪行”，而不仅仅是税收和枪支指控。这将保护亨特·拜登免受特朗普上任后可能命令司法部或帕特尔领导的联邦调查局所做的进一步调查。

But Republicans seized on it to say that the unlimited decade-long sweep of the pardon demonstrated that there must be more there to protect him from.

但共和党人抓住了这一点，声称长达十年的无限制赦免表明，他一定有更多问题，需要被保护。

“The charges Hunter faced were just the tip of the iceberg in the blatant corruption that President Biden and the Biden Crime Family have lied about to the American people,” said Representative James R. Comer of Kentucky, the Republican committee chairman who led the G.O.P. investigation. “It’s unfortunate that, rather than come clean about their decades of wrongdoing, President Biden and his family continue to do everything they can to avoid accountability.”

“亨特面临的指控只是拜登总统和拜登犯罪家族公然腐败、向美国人民撒谎的冰山一角，”领导共和党调查的共和党委员会主席、肯塔基州众议员詹姆斯·科默说。“令人遗憾的是，拜登总统及其家族并没有坦白他们几十年来的不法行为，而是继续竭尽所能逃避责任。”

Some Republicans even imagined ways the pardon could help any future investigation of the outgoing president. David M. Friedman, a longtime Trump lawyer who served as ambassador to Israel in his first term, suggested online that Hunter Biden could now be compelled to testify about matters for which he no longer faces potential criminal liability.

一些共和党人甚至设想，这次赦免对未来对即将离任的拜登总统的任何调查可能有什么帮助。长期担任特朗普律师的戴维·弗里德曼曾在特朗普的第一个任期内担任驻以色列大使，他在网上表示，亨特·拜登现在可能会被迫就一些他不再面临潜在刑事责任的事情作证。

“This means that Hunter cannot plead the Fifth if asked about his business dealings with Ukraine and China, including his Dad’s involvement, because, with his pardon, he has no risk of criminal jeopardy,” Mr. Friedman wrote.

“这意味着，如果被问及亨特与乌克兰和中国的商业往来，包括他父亲的参与，他不能援引第五修正案，因为得到赦免后，他就没有刑事危险了，”弗里德曼写道。

Other presidents have used the pardon power on their way out of office to help people close to them. President George H.W. Bush pardoned former Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger and other colleagues on charges stemming from the Iran-contra affair. President Bill Clinton pardoned his brother Roger on old drug charges.

其他总统也曾在卸任时使用赦免权来帮助与他们关系密切的人。乔治·H·W·布什总统赦免了前国防部长卡斯帕·温伯格和其他与伊朗门事件有关的同事。比尔·克林顿总统赦免了弟弟罗杰的毒品旧案。

And of course, the vast majority of Mr. Trump’s pardons and commutations went to people he knew personally or was connected to through allies, according to studies. Among the people he pardoned in his last weeks in office was Charles Kushner, the father of Mr. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner who spent two years in prison on tax evasion and other charges. Over the weekend, Mr. Trump announced that he would now nominate the pardoned Mr. Kushner to be ambassador to France.

研究显示，特朗普的绝大多数赦免和减刑则都给了他本人认识的人，或者通过盟友联系的人。在任期的最后几周，他赦免了他的女婿贾里德·库什纳的父亲查尔斯·库什纳，后者因逃税和其他指控被判入狱两年。周末，特朗普宣布，他将提名已获赦免的库什纳担任美国驻法国大使。

In his pardon statement, Mr. Biden sought to appeal to empathy for a father of a son who struggled with drug addiction, framing his decision in personal terms as Hunter faced possibly years in prison. “I hope Americans will understand why a father and a president would come to this decision,” he wrote.

在赦免声明中，拜登试图唤起外界对一位父亲的同情，他的儿子曾与毒瘾作斗争，在亨特可能面临数年牢狱之灾的情况下，他以个人角度阐述了自己的决定。“我希望美国人能理解为什么一位父亲和一位总统会做出这样的决定，”他写道。

If he had left it at that, that might have been one thing. But it was his attack on the prosecution that raised questions of a dual-track justice system. “There has been an effort to break Hunter — who has been five and a half years sober, even in the face of unrelenting attacks and selective prosecution,” the president said. “In trying to break Hunter, they’ve tried to break me — and there’s no reason to believe it will stop here. Enough is enough.”

如果他就此打住，那也许是一回事。但他对检察机关的攻击令人质疑司法制度的双轨性。“一直有人在试图让亨特垮下来——他已经戒瘾五年半了，尽管面临着无情的攻击和选择性检控，”总统说。“他们想整垮亨特，他们想整垮我——没有理由相信他们会就此罢休。该适可而止了。”

Except that it will not stop here. Even some supporters of Mr. Biden said his decision opened the door for Mr. Trump to further warp the system by pointing to his predecessor’s own words and actions. Former Representative Joe Walsh, a leading anti-Trump Republican from Illinois who endorsed Mr. Biden for president, said the pardon was “deflating.”

但一切不会就此停止。就连拜登的一些支持者也表示，拜登的决定为特朗普打开了一扇门，让特朗普得以揪住前任的言行，进一步扭曲这个体制。支持拜登竞选总统的伊利诺伊州主要反特朗普共和党人、前众议员乔·沃尔什表示，赦免令他感到“泄气”。

“This just furthers the cynicism that people have about politics,” he said on MSNBC, “and that cynicism strengthens Trump because Trump can just say: ‘I’m not a unique threat. Everybody does this. If I do something for my kid, my son-in-law, look, Joe Biden does the same thing.’ I get it, but this was a selfish move by Biden which politically only strengthens Trump.”

“这只会加深人们对政治的冷嘲热讽态度，”他在MSNBC上说，“而这种冷嘲热讽会助长特朗普的气焰，因为特朗普可以说：‘我不是一个独一无二的威胁。所有人都这么做。如果我为我的孩子，我的女婿做点什么，你看，乔·拜登也做了同样的事情。’我能理解，但这是拜登的自私行为，只会在政治上增强特朗普的力量。”

President-elect Donald J. Trump comes to office with a view of America’s place in the world that is dramatically different from his predecessor’s.

对于美国在世界中应处于何种位置，候任总统特朗普持有与前任迥异的看法。

Branding President Biden’s foreign policy as “historically horrible,” Mr. Trump is vowing to reinstate an America First approach that in his first term swept away years of policy consensus and shook U.S. alliances around the world.

特朗普称拜登总统的外交政策“向来差劲”，发誓要恢复“美国优先”的方针，在他的第一个任期内，这种方针扫除了多年的政策共识，动摇了美国在世界各地的联盟。

He wants friendly relations with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, may slash U.S. support for Ukraine and has threatened to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. He admires foreign autocrats and shows little interest in Mr. Biden’s goal of championing democracy abroad. He is hostile to international organizations and treaties including the United Nations and the Paris climate accord.

他希望与俄罗斯总统普京建立友好关系，这可能会削减美国对乌克兰的支持；他还威胁要退出北大西洋公约组织。他钦佩外国的独裁者，对拜登在海外倡导民主的目标兴趣不大。他敌视包括联合国和巴黎气候协议在内的国际组织和条约。

But amid the many areas of potential disruption, Mr. Trump will also find plenty of things to like in Mr. Biden’s policies. Beyond the glaring exceptions of Europe and his plans for Russia and Ukraine, Mr. Trump’s initial approach could bear a surprising resemblance to the Biden status quo.

但是，在许多可能造成混乱的领域中，特朗普也会发现，拜登的政策有很多值得称道之处。除了欧洲这个明显的例外，以及他对俄罗斯和乌克兰的计划之外，特朗普在一开始的路线可能与拜登留下的现状有着惊人的相似。

One reason is that abrupt foreign policy swerves are rare and difficult to execute, analysts say. America’s military, economic and political power tends to provide a fairly fixed amount of leverage over other countries. Pressure from allies, Congress and the federal bureaucracy push commanders-in-chief toward consensus views.

分析人士说，原因之一是外交政策的突然转变是很少见的，而且很难执行。美国的军事、经济和政治力量往往对其他国家提供相当固定的影响力。来自盟友、国会和联邦官僚机构的压力会推动三军总司令们达成共识。

“There tends to be more continuity between administrations of different parties — even administrations of very different styles, like Trump and Biden — than the casual observer might expect,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a nonpartisan Washington think tank. “We tend to focus on the big differences.”

“不同党派的政府之间往往有更多的连续性，比一般观察者可能预期的要多，甚至特朗普和拜登这样风格迥异的政府也是如此，”华盛顿无党派智库新美国安全中心的首席执行官理查德·方丹说。“我们倾向于去关注那些大的差异。”

One reason is that Mr. Biden continued several key policies from the first Trump term.

原因之一是拜登延续了特朗普第一任期内的几项关键政策。

In his dealings with such countries as Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, China and even Israel, Mr. Biden broke with Mr. Trump’s approach in relatively modest or short-lived ways. National security strategy plans issued by both the Trump and Biden White Houses identified “strategic competition” with China and Russia as the north star of U.S. policy.

在与古巴、伊朗、委内瑞拉、中国甚至以色列等国打交道时，拜登以相对温和或短暂的方式打破了特朗普的做法。特朗普和拜登政府发布的国家安全战略计划都将与中国和俄罗斯的“战略竞争”确定为美国政策的北极星。

拜登总统最初因沙特阿拉伯侵犯人权而将其称为 “被排斥”的国家，但最终还是接受了沙特阿拉伯以石油为动力的影响力。2022年7月，他会见了王储兼首相穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。

Saudi Arabia is a prime example. Mr. Biden initially branded the kingdom a “pariah” over the 2018 murder of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi and other human rights abuses. The president also suspended offensive weapons for Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, which he said was causing a humanitarian disaster.

沙特阿拉伯就是一个典型的例子。最初，由于2018年沙特持不同政见者贾马尔·卡舒吉遭到谋杀，以及其他侵犯人权行为，拜登将沙特称为“被排斥”的国家。此外，针对沙特阿拉伯对由伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装分子的军事行动，拜登暂停为这些军事行动提供进攻性武器。拜登表示，相关行动造成了一场人道主义灾难。

But Mr. Biden has since bowed to the reality of Saudi Arabia’s oil-powered influence. He restored the arms shipments and has sent aides to Riyadh in pursuit of a U.S.-Saudi security agreement that would bring the two countries closer militarily, on the condition that Saudi Arabia establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel.

但拜登后来屈服于沙特阿拉伯石油主导影响力的现实。他恢复了武器输送，并派遣助手前往利雅得寻求达成一项美国-沙特安全协议，该协议将使两国在军事上更加紧密，条件是沙特阿拉伯与以色列建立正式外交关系。

“Biden went from trying to make the Saudis a pariah to trying to make them a treaty ally of the United States,” Mr. Fontaine noted — an approach Mr. Trump is expected to continue.

“拜登一开始试图让沙特成为被排斥的国家，后来又试图让他们成为美国的条约盟友，”方丹指出——预计特朗普会延续这种做法。

Mr. Trump’s plans for China are hazy, beyond threats to impose huge tariffs on its exported goods. But Mr. Biden will hand off an approach built on foundations laid in Mr. Trump’s first term. They include a muscular U.S. military presence in East Asia to counter Chinese territorial aggression, tough action against Chinese technology that could threaten American security and existing tariffs — first imposed by Mr. Trump and left in place by Mr. Biden.

除了威胁要对中国出口商品征收高额关税外，特朗普对中国的计划尚不明确。但拜登留下的是一份建立在特朗普第一任期基础上的方案。其中包括美国为对抗中国的区域性进犯，在东亚建立强大的军事存在，对可能威胁美国安全的中国技术采取的强硬行动，以及现有的关税——它们最初由特朗普征收，被拜登保留下来。

拜登总统和中国国家主席习近平本月在秘鲁利马举行会晤。特朗普和拜登政府都将与中国和俄罗斯的“战略竞争”视为美国政策的北极星。

Mr. Biden has softened his competitive approach with dialogue and speaks regularly with China’s president, Xi Jinping — but so did Mr. Trump.

拜登通过对话缓和了竞争态度，并定期与中国国家主席习近平交谈——但特朗普也是如此。

One wild card is Taiwan. Mr. Biden vowed to defend the democratic island from a Chinese invasion; Mr. Trump has sounded ambivalent. But several of Mr. Trump’s top national security picks, including Michael Waltz for national security adviser and Marco Rubio for secretary of state, are China hawks committed to Taiwan’s defense.

台湾是一个不确定因素。拜登誓言保卫这个民主的岛屿不受中国入侵；特朗普的态度似乎模棱两可。但特朗普提名的几位国家安全事务高级官员，包括担任国家安全顾问的迈克尔·瓦尔兹和担任国务卿的马尔科·卢比奥，都是致力于保卫台湾的对华鹰派。

As a candidate, Mr. Trump claimed that Mr. Biden had lifted the sanctions he had piled onto Iran’s economy as part of his first-term “maximum pressure” policy. In fact, Mr. Biden left those sanctions intact. The difference was in the need for enforcement: Iran eventually found ways to increase its black market oil sales, reaping billions in revenue, but Mr. Biden took only modest steps in response. Trump advisers say he will crack down.

竞选期间，特朗普声称拜登解除了他对伊朗经济施加的制裁，这是他第一个任期内“极限施压”政策的一部分。事实上，拜登没有改变这些制裁措施。区别在于执行的必要性：伊朗最终找到了增加黑市石油销售的方法，获得了数十亿美元的收入，但拜登只采取了温和的回应措施。特朗普的顾问表示，他将采取打击行动。

But Mr. Trump will face the same hard choices, including added tensions with China, the top customer for Iran’s illicit oil, and the prospect of higher oil prices caused by any loss in Iranian supply. After campaigning on inflation and high gas prices, Mr. Trump may be especially wary.

但特朗普将面临同样的艰难选择，包括与伊朗非法石油的最大客户中国的紧张关系加剧，以及伊朗供应的任何损失都可能导致油价上涨的前景。在竞选中主打通胀和高油价牌的特朗普在这方面可能尤其忌讳。

This time around, Mr. Trump will have no Iran nuclear deal to rip up, as he did in his first term. Mr. Biden tried without success to restore the Obama-era agreement, which slowed Iran’s progress toward a potential atomic bomb. Now, with Iran closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability, Mr. Trump sounds prepared to try again: “We have to make a deal,” he told reporters in September, calling an Iranian bomb an “impossible” outcome.

这一次，特朗普不会像第一个任期那样撕毁伊朗核协议。拜登曾试图恢复奥巴马时代的协议，但没有成功。该协议减缓了伊朗研发原子弹的进程。现在，随着伊朗比以往任何时候都更接近拥有核武器的能力，特朗普似乎准备再次尝试，“我们必须达成协议，”他在9月告诉记者，并称让伊朗拥有核弹是“不可能”的结果。

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, said she expected “significant continuity in U.S. policy on Iran” under Mr. Trump, noting that both Democratic and Republican presidents have sought to coerce and negotiate with the country’s Islamic government. “That includes the first Trump administration,” she added. “The complexity of the challenges posed by Tehran provides few easy alternatives, as prior presidents have found.”

布鲁金斯学会的伊朗问题专家苏珊·马洛尼表示，她预计特朗普执政期间，“美国对伊朗政策会有很大的连续性，”并指出民主党和共和党总统都曾试图胁迫该国的伊斯兰政府，并与其进行谈判。“这包括第一届特朗普政府，”她还说。“正如前几任总统所发现的那样，德黑兰带来的挑战的错综复杂，几乎没有简单的替代方案。”

Mr. Trump, Ms. Maloney said, will most likely be more willing to take risks with Iran, as when he ordered the assassination of the Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. But his pressure campaign will probably include efforts to talk, she said.

马洛尼说，特朗普很可能会更愿意在伊朗问题上冒险，就像他在2020年1月下令暗杀伊朗指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼那样。但她说，他的施压行动可能会包括谈判努力。

Mr. Trump casts himself as Israel’s best friend in American politics, and he may give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wide latitude on security issues and his treatment of Palestinians. But so did Mr. Biden. While the Biden administration often criticized Mr. Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza, it took few concrete steps to restrain his behavior.

特朗普把自己塑造成以色列在美国政治中最好的朋友，他可能会在安全问题和对待巴勒斯坦人的方式上给以色列总理内塔尼亚胡更大的自由度。但拜登也是如此。虽然拜登政府经常批评内塔尼亚胡在加沙战争中的行为，但几乎没有采取具体措施对他进行约束。

德黑兰的一块广告牌显示，拜登总统和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什金和武装部队总司令穆罕默德·巴盖里将军对峙。

Some Biden officials fear that Mr. Trump could green-light an Israeli move to annex the occupied West Bank, something Mr. Biden would never accept. But in his first term Mr. Trump opposed a plan by Mr. Netanyahu to annex large parts of the West Bank, and such a move now could spoil his high hopes for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic agreement.

拜登的一些官员担心，特朗普可能会为以色列吞并被占领的约旦河西岸的行动开绿灯，而这是拜登绝不会接受的。但在第一个任期内，特朗普曾反对内塔尼亚胡吞并约旦河西岸大部分地区的计划，现在，这样的举动可能会破坏他对沙特—以色列外交协议所寄予的期望。

During his first term, Mr. Trump complained that the war in Afghanistan was “a waste.” But he never completed a U.S. withdrawal — another reminder that big strategic changes are hard to pull off quickly. Mr. Biden wound up solving the problem for him, by executing on a withdrawal agreement that Mr. Trump had negotiated with the Taliban. Mr. Trump even initially called that “a wonderful and positive thing to do,” before hammering Mr. Biden over the chaotic nature of the American exit. Neither has any inclination to deal with the Taliban leaders today.

在第一个任期内，特朗普抱怨阿富汗战争是“浪费”。但他从未完成美国的撤军计划——这再次提醒人们，重大的战略变化很难迅速实现。拜登最终通过执行特朗普与塔利班谈判达成的撤军协议，替他解决了这个问题。特朗普最初甚至称这是“一件很棒的、积极的事情”，然后又就美国退出的混乱性质抨击拜登。目前，双方都无意与塔利班领导人打交道。

And in Cuba, U.S. policy remains much as Mr. Trump left it four years ago — frosty and stagnant. As president Mr. Trump took measures to roll back the Obama administration’s diplomatic opening, including by restoring Cuba to the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. Mr. Biden never undid that move. Similarly, Mr. Biden has largely maintained heavy Trump-era sanctions on Venezuela meant to pressure its authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, from power.

在古巴，美国的政策与特朗普四年前的政策大致相同——冷淡而停滞。担任总统期间，特朗普采取措施推翻奥巴马政府的外交开放，包括将古巴重新列入美国的支持恐怖主义国家名单。拜登始终没有撤销这一举措。同样，拜登基本上维持了特朗普时代对委内瑞拉的严厉制裁，目的是迫使其独裁领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台。

Even some foreign officials worried about Mr. Trump’s intentions are consoling themselves with the idea that his disruptive instincts may have limits.

就连一些担心特朗普意图的外国官员也在自我安慰，认为他的破坏性本能可能是有限度的。

One European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Mr. Trump’s election had created a climate of uncertainty and alarm on the continent. But asked about the prospect that Mr. Trump would withdraw the United States from NATO, the diplomat said he and many of his colleagues thought that fear is overblown.

一名不愿透露姓名的欧洲外交官表示，特朗普的当选在欧洲大陆制造了一种不确定和恐慌的气氛。但当被问及特朗普让美国退出北约的前景时，这位外交官说，他和他的许多同事认为，这种担忧被夸大了。

Few in Europe, he said, believe that Mr. Trump will actually take such a radical step.

他说，在欧洲，很少有人相信特朗普真的会采取如此激进的举措。

The State Department has denounced a Chinese court’s sentencing of a prominent journalist, Dong Yuyu, to seven years in prison and said it stood with his family in calling for his “immediate and unconditional release.”

美国国务院谴责中国判处著名记者董郁玉七年徒刑，并表示与他的家人站在一起，呼吁“立即无条件释放”董郁玉。

A court in Beijing announced the sentence on Friday for his conviction on charges of espionage. Mr. Dong, 62, a former Harvard Nieman fellow, has been held since February 2022, when officers from the Ministry of State Security, China’s main intelligence agency, detained him and a Japanese diplomat while they ate lunch in a restaurant.

上周五，北京一家法院周五宣布了对董郁玉间谍罪的判决。现年62岁的董郁玉曾是哈佛大学尼曼学者，自2022年2月以来一直被关押，当时他和一名日本外交官在一家餐馆吃午饭，两人被中国主要情报机构国家安全部的官员拘留。

The officers released the diplomat after an interrogation, but prosecutors put Mr. Dong on trial behind closed doors in July 2023. He is the most prominent journalist imprisoned in mainland China.

官员在审讯后释放了这名外交官，但检察官在2023年7月对董郁玉进行了非公开审判。他是中国大陆被监禁的最著名记者。

Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesman, said in a statement on Friday that Mr. Dong’s “arrest and today’s sentencing highlight the P.R.C.’s failure to live up to its commitments under international law and its own constitutional guarantees to all its citizens.” He used the initials of the formal name of the country, the People’s Republic of China.

美国国务院发言人马修·米勒在周五的声明中表示，董郁玉的“被捕和今天的判决，凸显了中华人民共和国未能履行其根据国际法作出的承诺，以及它自己对所有公民的宪法保障”。

“We celebrate Dong’s work as a veteran journalist and editor, as well as his contributions to U.S.-P.R.C. people-to-people ties, including as a Harvard University Nieman fellow,” Mr. Miller added. “We stand by Dong and his family and call for his immediate and unconditional release.”

“我们赞扬董作为一名资深记者和编辑的工作，以及他对美中民间关系的贡献，包括作为哈佛大学尼曼学者的贡献，”米勒还说。“我们支持董和他的家人，呼吁立即无条件释放他。”

R. Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China and a former Harvard professor, also issued a statement of condemnation, calling the sentencing “unjust.”

美国驻华大使、前哈佛大学教授尼古拉斯·伯恩斯也发表了谴责声明，称判决“不公正”。

Mr. Dong’s case could become a bigger flashpoint under the administration of President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has vowed to take a confrontational approach to China. Senator Marco Rubio, Mr. Trump’s pick for secretary of state, has crafted legislation that would punish China for its human rights abuses. Mr. Rubio is a former co-chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, which lists Mr. Dong as a prisoner “of priority concern” and urges action on his case by the White House.

候任总统特朗普曾经放话要对中国采取对抗态度，因此董郁玉的案件可能会成为他执政后的一个更大引爆点。参议员马可·卢比奥是特朗普的国务卿人选，他已起草立法，将惩罚中国的侵犯人权行为。卢比奥曾是国会-行政部门中国委员会的联合主席，该委员会将董郁玉列为“优先关注”的入狱者，并敦促白宫对他的案件采取行动。

北京市第二中级人民法院，董郁玉因间谍罪被拘留后在此接受判决。

Mr. Dong was a longtime editor and writer for Guangming Daily, the Communist Party’s leading newspaper for intellectual ideas, but he was not a party member.

董郁玉曾长期担任共产党主要的知识分子思想类报纸《光明日报》的编辑和撰稿人，但他不是党员。

Soon after starting at the newspaper, he took part in the 1989 pro-democracy protests, which ended with the military’s killing of hundreds or even thousands of civilians, and was sentenced to a year of hard labor in a steel factory. He returned to his job afterward, and through the decades wrote articles and columns on the need for China to embrace more liberal ideas and be more open to the outside world.

在加入报社后不久，他参加了1989年的民主抗议活动，这场抗议以军队杀害数百乃至数千名平民而告终，他因此被判在钢铁厂服苦役一年。之后，他回到工作岗位，在接下来的几十年里一直在撰写文章和专栏，强调中国需要接受更多自由思想、对外界更加开放。

He spent 2006 to 2007 at Harvard as a Nieman fellow, a prestigious appointment for American and international journalists. He later did a fellowship and a visiting professorship in Japan, and also occasionally wrote essays for foreign publications, including the Chinese edition of The New York Times. (I first met Mr. Dong and his family on a visit to Harvard and kept in touch with them after I was posted to Beijing for The Times in 2008. I did a Nieman fellowship later, and mentioned Mr. Dong’s case in my new book on China.)

2006年至2007年，他作为尼曼学者在哈佛度过，这是一个面向美国和国际记者、享有盛誉的身份。后来，他在日本担任研究员和客座教授，偶尔也为外国出版物写文章，包括《纽约时报》中文网。（我第一次见到董郁玉和他的家人是在哈佛，2008年，我被派往北京为时报工作后，我和他们一直保持着联系。后来我也获得了尼曼奖学金，并在我关于中国的新书中提到了董郁玉的案子。）

Mr. Dong’s harsh sentence comes at time of contradictions in the policies of the autocratic Xi Jinping, China’s leader. On the one hand, he has been trying to keep U.S.-China diplomacy stable and is encouraging some foreigners to live and work in China to boost its slowing economy. On the other, he has told Chinese citizens to report potential spies and has empowered his security agencies to arrest so-called subversives, whether justified or not.

对董郁玉的严厉判决正值中国威权领导人习近平的政策出现矛盾之际。一方面，他一直在努力保持美中外交稳定，并鼓励一些外国人在中国生活和工作，以提振中国不断放缓的经济；另一方面，他让中国公民举报潜在的间谍，并授权安全机构逮捕所谓的颠覆分子，无论是否有正当理由。

Mr. Dong’s sentencing appears intended to force a limiting of contacts between Chinese citizens and foreigners. Mr. Dong met openly with diplomats from Japan and the United States, as well as with international scholars, journalists and other foreigners.

对董郁玉的判决似乎意在强制限制中国公民与外国人的接触。董郁玉与日本和美国的外交官，以及海外学者、记者和其他外国人在公开场合碰面。

The judgment read aloud in court on Friday accused the Japanese Embassy in Beijing of being an “espionage organization” and named several Japanese diplomats Mr. Dong knew, including a former Japanese ambassador and the current chief diplomat in Shanghai, as agents, according to a statement from Mr. Dong’s family. The Japanese foreign ministry has said its diplomatic missions engage in “legitimate duties carried out by diplomats.”

根据董郁玉家人的声明，周五在法庭上宣读的判决书指控日本驻北京大使馆是一个“间谍组织”，并将董郁玉认识的几名日本外交官列为间谍，包括前日本大使和现任驻上海首席外交官。日本外务省表示，其外交使团从事的是“外交官履行的合法职责”。

Mr. Dong’s wife lives in Beijing, and his son in Washington. The son, Yifu Dong, graduated from Yale University and Boston University School of Law. The family plans to appeal the verdict and sentence and said that, in any case, China should release Mr. Dong on humanitarian grounds, given his age and a liver condition that has required monitoring during his detention.

董郁玉的妻子住在北京，儿子住在华盛顿。董郁玉的儿子董一夫毕业于耶鲁大学和波士顿大学法学院。家人计划对判决和刑期提出上诉，他们表示，无论如何，鉴于董郁玉的年龄和在押期间肝脏状况需要监测，中国应基于人道主义理由释放董郁玉。

They said the sentence was a “grave injustice” to “every freethinking Chinese journalist and every ordinary Chinese committed to friendly engagement with the world.”

他们说，这一判决对“每一位思想自由的中国记者和每一位致力于与世界友好交往的普通中国人”来说，都是“严重的不公正”。

This week, China and the United States did a prisoner swap in which China released three imprisoned American citizens and several people who had been prevented from leaving China for years under an exit ban.

上周，中国和美国进行了一次囚犯交换，中国释放了三名被关押的美国公民，以及几名多年来因出境禁令而被禁止离开中国的人。

The National Press Club in Washington has condemned the sentencing of Mr. Dong. And his imprisonment could increase tensions between Harvard University and Chinese leaders, many of whom want their children to attend the university. Mr. Xi’s daughter, Xi Mingze, is a Harvard alumna.

华盛顿的全国记者俱乐部谴责对董郁玉的判决。他的入狱可能会加剧哈佛大学与中国领导人之间的紧张关系，他们中的许多人都希望自己的孩子上这所大学。习近平的女儿习明泽是哈佛校友。

Ann Marie Lipinski, curator of the Nieman Foundation at Harvard, said Mr. Dong “is a cherished member of the international Nieman fellows community, where he is known for the care and diligence he has brought to his writing. We stand with many in hoping for a speedy reversal of this harsh decision so he may return to his family as soon as possible.”

哈佛大学尼曼基金会的负责人安·玛丽·利平斯基表示，董郁玉“是国际尼曼学者群体中备受重视的一员，他以写作时的细心和勤奋而闻名。我们与许多人站在一起，希望这一严厉的决定能够尽快撤销，让他可以尽快回到家人身边”。

Taiwan’s president set off on a mission on Saturday to shore up relations with some of his island democracy’s shrinking band of diplomatic allies: three tiny Pacific Island nations that have taken an outsize importance in Taiwan’s struggle against Chinese efforts to push it off the international stage.

台湾总统周六出访，旨在试图加强与台湾部分外交盟友的关系。台湾这个民主岛屿的外交盟友正在不断减少。中国努力将台湾赶出国际舞台，在抵制中国这一努力的斗争中，赖清德此次访问的三个太平洋小岛国发挥了巨大作用。

Lai Ching-te, the Taiwanese president, is scheduled to visit the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, which amount to one-quarter of the dozen states that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Since the 1970s, dozens of countries have shifted ties to China. Beijing claims the self-governed island of Taiwan as its territory, and insists that governments end diplomatic relations with Taipei if they want full relations with China.

台湾总统赖清德计划访问马绍尔群岛、图瓦卢和帕劳，它们占到了台湾12个邦交国的四分之一。自1970年代以来，已有数十个国家与台湾断绝关系，转向与中国建交。北京宣称自治的台湾是其领土，并坚持如果各国政府想与中国建立全面关系，就必须终止与台北的外交关系。

Mr. Lai’s weeklong trip comes as his government tries to fathom what changes President-elect Donald J. Trump will bring to U.S. dealings with Taiwan, and with China. Mr. Trump has called for Taiwan to sharply increase its military spending and has complained about Taiwan’s global dominance in making semiconductors. But Mr. Trump’s proposed cabinet includes Republicans who have been deeply distrustful of China and sympathetic to Taiwan.

赖清德为期一周的访问正值其政府试图搞清候任总统特朗普将给美国与台湾和中国的关系带来哪些变化之际。特朗普已要求台湾大幅增加军费开支，并抱怨台湾在半导体制造领域的全球主导地位。但特朗普提名的内阁人选中包括了对中国深感不信任并同情台湾的共和党人。

In uncertain times, experts say, Taiwan needs every edge of international advantage that it can get, including from its small allies in the Pacific. Their total population is about 67,000, according to United Nations estimates, compared with Taiwan’s more than 23 million people. But they are members of the United Nations and its bodies, while Taiwan is generally excluded.

专家表示，在充满不确定性的时期，台湾需要利用一切能获得的国际优势，包括来自太平洋地区的小国盟友。据联合国估计，这几个国家的总人口约为6.7万，而台湾的人口超过2300万。但这几个国家都是联合国及其机构的成员，而台湾通常被排除在外。

“The advantage that Taiwan gets from showing good will to these diplomatic partners is that naturally they help us speak out internationally, in all kinds of international settings where Taiwan can’t do it,” said Ian Tsung-yen Chen, a professor who specializes in Asia-Pacific relations at National Sun Yat-sen University in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan.

“台湾对这些邦交国示好，好处当然就是国际上面这些友邦会帮我们发声，在各种国际场合——台湾没有办法做到的地方。”位于台湾南部高雄市的国立中山大学专门研究亚太关系的教授陈宗岩表示。

台北一家食肆的电视正在播放11月美国总统大选的新闻。赖清德为期一周的访问正值台湾政府试图搞清候任总统特朗普将给美国与台湾和中国的关系带来哪些变化之际。

In addition to visiting the Pacific Island countries, Mr. Lai will spend two nights in Hawaii and stop for a day on Guam, an American island territory in the Pacific, Taiwanese officials have said. His trip has already drawn condemnation from Beijing. In the coming days, China may, if precedent is a guide, display its anger over Mr. Lai’s trip by piling invective on him, and Taiwanese security officials have said they expect Beijing to also stage increased military activities around the island, including coast guard maneuvers.

台湾官员表示，除了访问几个太平洋岛国外，赖清德还将在夏威夷停留两晚，并在太平洋上的美国领土关岛停留一天。他的访问已经招致北京的谴责。如果先例可供参考的话，未来几天，中国可能会通过抨击赖清德来表达对其出访的愤怒。台湾安全官员表示，他们预计北京还将在台湾周边加强军事活动，包括海警演习。

China says that Taiwanese leaders’ stopovers on American soil violate Washington diplomatic understandings with Beijing; U.S. officials say the transit visits are a courtesy for Taiwan’s leaders. Taiwanese leaders have used their brief stops to promote stronger ties with the United States, which, even without full diplomatic relations, remains their most important partner — a vital market for Taiwan’s goods and a supplier of most of its military weapons.

中国称台湾领导人在美国领土停留违反了华盛顿与北京的外交共识；美国官员则表示，过境访问是对台湾领导人的礼遇。台湾领导人一直利用这种短暂停留来加强与美国的关系。尽管没有建立全面外交关系，但美国仍然是台湾最重要的合作伙伴——它是台湾商品的重要市场，以及大部分军事武器的供应国。

This time, Mr. Lai will not set foot in the continental United States, reducing opportunities for high-profile meetings. Beijing’s reaction may also be relatively muted as Chinese leaders focus on preparing for the second Trump administration. More attention may fall on Mr. Lai’s efforts to preserve Taiwan’s diplomatic footprint, especially in the Pacific.

赖清德此次不会踏足美国本土，因此减少了高规格会晤引起关注的机会。由于中国领导人正专注于为特朗普的第二任期做准备，北京的反应也可能会相对平和。赖清德为保住台湾的外交影响力（尤其是在太平洋地区）所做的努力可能会受到更多关注。

Faced with global challenges, “Taiwan must actively engage with the world,” Mr. Lai told an audience in Taipei shortly before boarding his plane for the trip — his first abroad since becoming president in May. The three Pacific allies, he added, were “supporting Taiwan’s participation in many international forums.”

赖清德在台北登机前表示，面对全球挑战，“台湾要积极地走近世界”。这是他今年5月就任总统以来首次出访。他还说，三个太平洋盟友“支持台湾的国际参与”。

Mr. Lai is likely to be especially eager to make sure that the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau speak up for Taiwan in the Pacific Islands Forum, the region’s main diplomatic gathering, said Mihai Sora, the director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy think tank in Sydney. The Forum is one of the few multilateral venues where Taiwan has a steady presence — as a “development partner” — to the consternation of diplomats from China, which also has a role in the dialogue.

总部位于悉尼的外交政策智库洛伊研究所太平洋岛屿项目主任米哈伊·索拉表示，赖清德可能特别希望确保马绍尔群岛、图瓦卢和帕劳在太平洋岛国论坛上为台湾发声。该论坛是太平洋地区的主要外交会议，也是台湾作为“发展伙伴”稳定出席的少数多边场合之一，这一点让同样参与对话的中国外交官感到意外和担忧。

When leaders met for the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga this year, a Chinese official denounced a draft communiqué that confirmed Taiwan’s status, the Guardian reported. But the Solomon Islands, which has had strong ties with China, may try to diminish Taiwan’s role when it hosts the leaders meeting next year. Taiwan’s diplomatic partners could help counter that risk.

据《卫报》报道，今年在汤加举行的太平洋岛国论坛上，各国领导人会面时，一名中国官员谴责了确认台湾地位的公报草案。但与中国关系密切的所罗门群岛可能会在明年主办领导人会议时试图削弱台湾的地位。台湾的外交伙伴可以帮助应对这一风险。

8月，太平洋岛国论坛在汤加努库阿洛法举行。该论坛是是台湾稳定出席的少数多边场合之一，这让同样参与对话的中国外交官感到意外和担忧。

“Our country is closely tracking developments regarding the Solomon Islands and other countries that follow China’s lead and who may try to exploit opportunities to thwart our participation in the Pacific Islands Forum in 2025,” Jeff Liu, a spokesman for Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a written response to questions. Taiwan, Mr. Liu wrote, would “work closely” with its diplomatic allies and partners “to firmly defend our rights and interests in participating” in the forum.

“我国对所罗门群岛等扈从中国国家可能利用机会打压2025年参与太平洋岛国论坛情形均密切掌握，”台湾外交部发言人刘永健在书面回复记者提问时表示。他表示，台湾将与外交盟友和合作伙伴“密切合作”，“坚定维护我国参与PIF（太平洋岛国论坛）的权益”。

Over the past decade, China has used generous offers of aid and investment to draw away Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners, partly in an effort to stifle Taiwan’s global standing and also as retaliation against successive governments led by the Democratic Progressive Party. The party rejects the idea that Taiwan is a part of China and says the island is, for practical purposes, independent and should stay that way.

过去十年，中国通过慷慨的援助和投资来拉拢台湾剩余的外交伙伴，这在一定程度上是为了打压台湾的全球地位，并报复连续执政的民进党政府。民进党拒绝承认台湾是中国的一部分，并表示从实际意义上讲，台湾是独立的，且应该保持这种状态。

Days after Mr. Lai won Taiwan’s presidential election in January, China announced that it had persuaded Nauru, a speck in the Pacific Ocean, to shift diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing. In 2019, two Pacific Island states — Kiribati and the Solomon Islands — switched to Beijing. This week, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, hosted Fiame Naomi Mata’afa, the prime minister of Samoa, in Beijing, presenting China as a firm friend to the Pacific Island nations.

今年1月赖清德赢得台湾总统大选几天后，中国就宣布，已说服太平洋上的小岛国瑙鲁断绝了与台湾的外交关系，转而与北京建交。2019年，两个太平洋岛国——基里巴斯和所罗门群岛——转向北京。本周，中国领导人习近平在北京会见了萨摩亚总理菲娅梅·内奥米·马塔阿法，向外界展示中国是太平洋岛国的坚定盟友。

People on the Pacific Islands, threatened by rising seas caused by global warming, have learned to cope with geopolitical rivalries spilling into their region, said Sione Tekiteki, a former official at the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat who now lectures at the Auckland University of Technology in New Zealand.

太平洋岛国论坛秘书处前官员、现在新西兰奥克兰理工大学任教的西奥内·特基泰基表示，太平洋岛屿饱受全球变暖引发的海平面上升威胁，这里的人们已经学会应对蔓延到本地区的地缘政治竞争。

“The problem, I would say, is the fact that, rather than trying to deal with the issues themselves, they work through their affiliated Pacific nations, which in turns creates tensions among those Pacific nations,” Mr. Tekiteki said of China and Taiwan. “It’s only a big issue for us because everyone else talks about it and pulls in Pacific nations.”

“我认为，问题在于，他们不是试图自己解决问题，而是通过与其有关联的太平洋国家来解决问题，这反过来又造成了这些太平洋国家之间的紧张关系，”特基泰基在谈​​到中国​​和台湾时说。“这对我们来说是一个大问题仅仅是因为其他人都在谈论它，并且把太平洋国家也拉进来了。”

周五，士兵在台北自由广场升起台湾国旗。中国认为台湾是其领土的一部分，一直寻求减少台湾邦交国的数量。

The Lowy Institute’s latest annual survey of aid received by the Pacific Island countries combined estimated that in 2022 — the most recent year when the data is available — Taiwan dropped out of the top 10 bilateral aid donors to the region. The drop appeared to reflect how, when Taiwan’s diplomatic partners in the Pacific switch to Beijing, they no longer take Taiwanese aid. China was the second-biggest donor, some distance behind Australia.

洛伊研究所对太平洋岛国接受的援助进行的最新年度调查估计，2022年（有数据可查的最近一年），台湾已跌出该地区十大双边援助捐助国之列。这似乎反映出，当台湾在太平洋地区的外交伙伴转向北京时，它们不再接受台湾的援助。中国是该地区第二大捐助国，仅次于澳大利亚。

Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific all have strong ties with the United States or Australia, and that may discourage them from shifting ties to Beijing, Mr. Sora of the Lowy Institute said. The Marshall Islands and Palau receive U.S. economic support and other benefits through what are called “Compacts of Free Association,” and Tuvalu last year signed a wide-ranging agreement with Australia.

在洛伊研究所供职的索拉表示，台湾在太平洋地区尚存的外交盟友都与美国或澳大利亚有着密切的关系，这可能会阻止它们转向北京。马绍尔群岛和帕劳通过所谓的“自由联合协定”获得美国的经济支持和其他利益，图瓦卢去年与澳大利亚签署了一项范围广泛的协议。

“It’s an important element in terms of adding ballast to these three countries’ current diplomatic ties with Taiwan,” Mr. Sora said. “Those countries might not feel pressed or compelled to look for new diplomatic partnerships.”

“这是为这三个国家与台湾的现有外交关系增加压舱石的一个重要因素，”索拉说。“这些国家可能不会感到有压力或被迫寻求新的外交伙伴关系。”