When South Korea’s newly elected president, Lee Jae Myung, visited Washington in August, he was asked about anmigyeongjung, the nation’s well-established policy of maintaining strategic neutrality between the United States and China.

今年8月，韩国新当选总统李在明访问华盛顿期间，被问及韩国长期奉行的“安美经中”(anmigyeongjung)政策——该国在中美之间保持战略中立的既定方针。

The Korean phrase, loosely translated as “the United States for security and China for the economy,” refers to how the country must balance its reliance on America for national defense and the economic importance of China as a critical market for South Korean companies.

这一韩语表述大致可译为“安保靠美国，经济靠中国”，指韩国在国防上依赖美国、经济上则需依托作为韩国企业关键市场的中国，并在二者之间寻求平衡状态。

But the intensifying U.S.-Chinese competition makes it hard for South Korea to count on both. “It is no longer possible to maintain that type of logic,” Mr. Lee said. Increasingly, South Korea must choose, and it has not been in a position to deviate from the policies of the United States, he acknowledged.

但中美竞争加剧让韩国难以再兼顾两者。“如今已不可能再继续维持那种逻辑了，”李在明表示。他承认，韩国正被迫做出选择，且目前无法偏离美国的政策方向。

Like many countries confronted with a more fragmented global economy, South Korea has been thrust into the middle of an acrimonious trade war, forced into a no-win position navigating export controls, sanctions and tariffs.

与全球经济碎片化背景下的许多国家一样，韩国被卷入激烈的贸易战，在出口管制、制裁与关税的夹缝中陷入两难境地。

Now the dilemma is especially thorny for South Korea. It maintains its critical alliance with the United States, even as it is struggling to meet President Trump’s onerous demands to complete a trade deal that the two countries agreed to in principle in July.

如今韩国的困境尤为棘手。它既要维系与美国的关键同盟关系，同时还需应对特朗普总统提出的苛刻要求——完成两国7月原则上达成的贸易协议。

On the other side, its giant neighbor, China, is the main target of Mr. Trump’s economic grievances. It is also South Korea’s largest trading partner, accounting for a quarter of its exports when Hong Kong is included.

另一方面，中国这个庞大的邻国既是特朗普经济不满的主要目标，也是韩国最大的贸易伙伴。若计入香港，中国占韩国出口总额的四分之一。

Ahead of an expected meeting this week between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, on South Korean soil at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Seoul has been confronted with the heavy cost of siding with the United States.

预计本周特朗普将与中国最高领导人习近平将在韩国举行的亚太经合组织峰会期间会面，在此之前，韩国已感受到站队美国的沉重代价。

This month, five U.S. subsidiaries of the South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean were hit with sanctions from China, which accused the company of “supporting and assisting” the United States in its investigation into the trade practices of the Chinese shipbuilding industry. Hanwha acquired a shipyard in Philadelphia last year for $100 million. It was expected to be at the forefront of Mr. Trump’s initiative to use foreign investment to revitalize the American shipbuilding industry.

本月，韩国造船企业韩华海洋的五家美国子公司遭到中国制裁。中国指控该公司“支持并协助”美国调查中国造船业的贸易行为。韩华海洋去年以1亿美元收购了美国费城的一家造船厂，原本有望成为特朗普借助外国投资重振美国造船业计划的核心力量。

李在明8月在费城韩华造船厂，身旁是宾夕法尼亚州州长乔希·夏皮罗。

“That was a wake-up call,” said Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow and the Korea chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies. “That’s a pressure point that I don’t think South Korea expected.”

“这无疑是一记警钟，”布鲁金斯学会东亚政策研究中心高级研究员、韩国项目主任吕寅晔(Andrew Yeo)表示，“我认为这一施压点超出了韩国的预期。”

When South Korea and the United States were discussing investments in American shipbuilding, the Chinese Communist Party-controlled Global Times warned in a July editorial that it was “a high-risk gamble” to believe that “geopolitics can overturn economic principles,” citing the prolonged decline of U.S. shipbuilding.

早在韩美讨论美国造船业投资事宜时，中国共产党旗下的《环球时报》就在7月的评论文章中警告，称“地缘政治能颠覆经济规律”是“高风险赌博”，并提及美国造船业的长期衰退趋势。

A few weeks later, Global Times published another editorial warning South Korea that if a ship carrying the country’s logo was involved in U.S. military action against a third country, it “could potentially cause trouble” and that it should be “wary of such a scenario.”

几周后，《环球时报》再发评论警告韩国，称若有悬挂韩国标识的船只参与美国对第三国的军事行动，“可能引发麻烦，”并提醒韩国“警惕此类情况发生”。

When China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the sanctions on Hanwha, the ministry said they were necessary because the company’s cooperation with the U.S. government was endangering Chinese “sovereignty, security and development interests.”

中国商务部宣布制裁韩华海洋时表示，该公司与美国政府的合作危及中国“主权、安全、发展利益”，因此制裁势在必行。

Under Yoon Suk Yeol, Mr. Lee’s predecessor, who was impeached and ousted after declaring martial law, South Korea was already redirecting its economic focus toward the United States. This shift was especially pronounced under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., when the United States offered investment subsidies to South Korean companies to set up American factories.

李在明的前任尹锡悦在宣布军事管制后遭弹劾下台，在尹锡悦执政期间，韩国已开始将经济重心转向美国。在拜登总任内，这一转变尤为明显，当时美国为吸引韩国企业赴美建厂，提供了投资补贴。

As it feels the squeeze from China, South Korea is also finding that its pledges of deeper economic ties with the United States have done little to curry favor with the Trump administration.

如今韩国感受到中国的压力，同时也发现，即便承诺深化与美国的经济联系，也未能赢得特朗普政府的青睐。

Under the preliminary trade deal struck in July, South Korea agreed to invest $350 billion in the United States and spend $100 billion on liquefied natural gas. In exchange, Mr. Trump agreed to lower tariffs to 15 percent from an initially announced 25 percent — a critical concession for South Korea’s automobile manufacturers.

根据7月达成的初步贸易协议，韩国同意对美投资3500亿美元，并斥资1000亿美元采购液化天然气。作为交换，特朗普同意将最初宣布的25%关税降至15%——这对韩国汽车制造商而言是关键让步。

But over the ensuing three months, Seoul has balked at some of the demands from the White House. Without a final agreement in place, the United States has not lowered the tariff. South Korea expected the bulk of the $350 billion in investments to be loans and loan guarantees, but Mr. Trump has pushed for cash investments — similar to the U.S. agreement with Japan.

但在随后的三个月里，韩国政府对白宫的部分要求犹豫不决。由于最终协议尚未敲定，美国尚未下调关税。韩国原本期望，3500亿美元投资中大部分以贷款和贷款担保形式实现，但特朗普却要求以现金投资为主——与美国和日本达成的协议类似。

However, South Korea has said cash investments of that magnitude could destabilize its currency. It has asked the Trump administration for currency swaps to minimize volatility in the foreign exchange market and prevent a collapse of the South Korean won.

然而韩国表示，如此规模的现金投资可能导致本国货币动荡。它已请求特朗普政府提供货币互换安排，平抑外汇市场波动并防止韩元崩盘。

韩国韩华集团造船厂去年在巨济岛为一艘美国海军舰艇进行大修，这是该公司发布的一张照片。

Despite a last-minute scramble by South Korean officials to secure a pact before the summit on its home turf, and continued assurances from both countries that a deal is imminent, there is still no final agreement.

尽管韩国官员在本土举办峰会前紧急斡旋，试图促成协议，且两国仍不断承诺“协议即将达成”，但目前仍未敲定最终版本。

Chosun Ilbo, South Korea’s conservative daily newspaper and traditionally an advocate for a strong alliance with the United States, criticized Mr. Trump’s hardball tactics to squeeze concessions from the country and warned that they might push South Korean companies into the arms of China.

韩国保守派日报、向来支持韩美强化同盟的《朝鲜日报》批评特朗普采用强硬手段逼迫韩国让步，并警告此举可能迫使韩国企业倒向中国。

“Trump remains stubbornly tough on America’s allies,” wrote Yang Sang-hoon, the newspaper’s opinion columnist. “To him, the very fact that a country is an ally appears to be a major weakness.”

“特朗普对美国盟友的强硬态度始终未变，”该报评论员杨尚勋（音）写道。“在他看来，一个国家是美国的盟友这一事实本身似乎就是重大软肋。”

Mr. Trump is scheduled to meet with President Lee on Wednesday in South Korea. Mr. Lee lowered expectations for a possible deal before the summit by stating in an interview with CNN that “a considerable amount of time and effort is needed for adjustment and correction” before reaching a final agreement.

特朗普定于周三在韩国与李在明会面。李在明此前接受CNN采访时降低了对峰会前达成协议的预期，称“达成最终协议前，仍需大量时间和努力进行调整与修正”。

South Korea’s semiconductor technology has also become a pawn in the escalating feud between China and the United States. Before Mr. Trump came to office, the United States placed restrictions on exports to China of so-called high-bandwidth memory chips, which are critical for running generative artificial intelligence systems.

在中美日益激烈的博弈中，韩国的半导体技术也沦为棋子。特朗普上任前，美国就已限制向中国出口所谓高带宽存储芯片——这类芯片对运行生成式人工智能系统至关重要。

While the seemingly insatiable demand for A.I. chips will help offset any effect from export controls in the short term, there are potential long-term dangers. Chinese chip makers are receiving significant financial backing from Beijing to close the technological gap with overseas semiconductor firms, seeding the ground for future rivals.

尽管短期内，对人工智能芯片看似无穷的需求或能抵消出口管制的影响，但长期风险依然存在。中国政府正为本土芯片企业提供巨额资金支持，助力其缩小与海外半导体企业的技术差距，为未来培育竞争对手奠定基础。

June Park, a political economist from South Korea, said there was growing concern that Chinese firms would soon catch up to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the two biggest manufacturers of high-bandwidth memory chips.

韩国政治经济学家朴俊（音）表示，业界越来越担心中国企业将很快赶上韩国两大高带宽存储芯片制造商——SK海力士和三星电子。

“The years of catching up may not be that long,” Dr. Park said.

“中国企业追赶所需的时间可能不会太长，”朴俊说。

Trump administration officials have hailed the makings of a potential trade deal that could have China buy American soybeans and pause the introduction of its new licensing system on rare earth minerals, while the United States pauses or removes some of its tariffs.

特朗普政府官员称赞一项潜在贸易协议的进展。该协议可能要求中国采购美国大豆、暂停实施新的稀土矿产许可制度，而美国则会暂停或取消部分对华关税。

It remains to be seen what might be agreed when President Trump meets the Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. But those and the other measures that U.S. officials have mentioned appear to largely restore the relationship to a status quo from earlier this year, before Mr. Trump began his latest trade war with Beijing.

特朗普总统本周与中国国家主席习近平会面时最终会达成何种共识，目前仍有待观察。但美国官员提及的上述措施及其他举措，似乎在很大程度上会将两国经贸关系恢复到今年早些时候的状态——也就是特朗普开启最新一轮对华贸易战之前的局面。

The United States and China have shown their willingness to repeatedly escalate trade tensions and hurt companies that do business across the Pacific, before walking back measures and striking a truce. But the truces have quickly crumbled, calling into question how durable a new agreement would be.

美中两国此前多次展现出升级贸易紧张局势、损害跨太平洋企业利益的意愿，之后又取消相关措施、达成休战。但这些休战状态很快就会破裂，让人对新协议的持久性产生疑问。

Speaking on ABC News on Sunday, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said American and Chinese negotiators who met in Malaysia over the weekend had “reached a substantial framework” for the two leaders to discuss when they meet in South Korea on Thursday.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在ABC新闻节目中表示，上周末在马来西亚会晤的中美谈判代表已就两国领导人周四在韩国会晤时讨论的议题“达成实质性框架”。

He said that a 100 percent increase in United States tariffs on Chinese exports scheduled for Nov. 1 had been averted, and that China had agreed to delay a rare earths licensing system “for a year while they re-examine it.” The Chinese also agreed to help the United States stop the flow of chemical ingredients used to make illicit fentanyl, and make “substantial agriculture purchases for U.S. farmers,” Mr. Bessent said.

他表示，原定于11月1日实施的美国对华出口商品关税提高100%的计划已被取消；中国同意将稀土许可制度“暂缓一年，期间重新评估该制度”。贝森特还称，中国还同意协助美国阻止制造非法芬太尼所需化学原料的流通，并“向美国农民大量采购农产品”。

On social media, Brooke Rollins, the secretary of agriculture, praised the planned soybean purchases as “big news.” She added, “China’s commitment to make substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans brings the market BACK into balance and secures years of prosperity for American producers.”

美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯在社交媒体上称赞拟议中的大豆采购计划是“大新闻”。她还说：“中国承诺大量采购美国大豆，将使市场恢复平衡，并为美国生产者确保未来数年的繁荣。”

But critics said the Trump administration appeared to be claiming credit for solving a crisis of its own making. China stopped its soybean purchases earlier this year, after it put a tariff on American soybeans in retaliation for the tariffs Mr. Trump had placed on Chinese products in April.

但批评人士指出，特朗普政府似乎是在为解决自己制造的危机邀功。今年4月，特朗普对中国商品加征关税后，中国采取反制措施，对美国大豆加征关税，随后便停止了大豆采购。

The Chinese government had clearly been developing its licensing system for rare earths for some time, and it introduced its first measures in December in response to technology restrictions from the Biden administration. But it greatly enlarged the system following Mr. Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, then further expanded it this month, after the United States put new restrictions on providing technology to thousands of additional Chinese companies.

中国政府酝酿稀土许可制度显然已有了一段时间。为回应拜登政府的技术限制措施，中国在去年12月首次出台相关措施；今年4月特朗普实施大规模“解放日”关税后，中国大幅扩大了该制度的适用范围；本月，在美国对数千家中国企业新增技术供应限制后，中国再次扩大了该制度。

Paul Triolo, a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, a consultancy, said the Trump administration had been pursuing a policy of “escalating to de-escalate,” which he called “a losing strategy.” He pointed out that this was the fifth meeting of trade talks that had been dominated by China’s curbs on rare earths.

咨询公司DGA-奥尔布赖特石桥集团合伙人保罗·特里奥洛表示，特朗普政府一直在推行“以升级求降级”的政策，他认为这是“一种失败的策略”。他指出，此次已是围绕中国稀土限制展开的第五轮贸易谈判。

“Both sides can hurt each other,” Mr. Triolo said. “All it’s done is reduce market share for companies across the board.”

“双方都有能力伤害对方，”特里奥洛说，“目前的做法只会让所有企业的市场份额全面缩水。”

Mr. Trump’s deal-making is famously unpredictable, and his meeting with Mr. Xi could result in other deals. Chinese officials have floated the possibility of more substantial purchases of U.S. products, as well as greater Chinese investment in the United States. In another interview, on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Mr. Bessent said the two sides would probably discuss “more balanced trade,” geopolitical relations in the Middle East and Asia, and the conflict in Ukraine.

特朗普的谈判风格以不可预测著称，他与习近平的会面可能还会促成其他协议。中国官员已提出可能进一步大量采购美国商品，并增加在美投资。在NBC《与媒体见面》节目采访中，贝森特表示，双方可能会讨论“更平衡的贸易关系”、中东和亚洲的地缘政治关系，以及乌克兰冲突等问题。

Markets have jumped at the news of a potential deal. But talks have been much less intensive than in Mr. Trump’s first term, when negotiators went back and forth for months to hammer out a 90-page trade agreement on issues ranging from intellectual property and banking to agriculture. On Friday, the Trump administration said it was beginning an investigation into China’s failure to comply with the terms of that agreement.

潜在协议的消息传出后，市场反应积极。但目前谈判的密集程度远不及特朗普第一任期——当时谈判代表耗时数月反复磋商，最终敲定了一份90页的贸易协议，内容涵盖知识产权、银行业、农业等多个领域。周五，特朗普政府表示，已启动调查，确认中国是否违反该协议条款。

Jonathan A. Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, pointed out that Mr. Xi was coming to the meeting after announcing China’s next five-year plan, which calls for intensifying the country’s focus on manufacturing and technology. Those plans run counter to longstanding American concerns about China’s trade practices, which ostensibly started their trade clash, he said. But those topics appeared absent from the agenda.

华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会研究员乔纳森·钦指出，习近平此次参会前，中国已公布了下一个五年规划，其中明确要求国家更加集中关注制造业和科技领域。他表示，这些规划与美国长期以来对中国贸易做法的担忧背道而驰，而这些担忧正是中美贸易冲突的表面起因。但这些议题似乎并未出现在此次谈判议程中。

“It’s really striking to me that, not only are they not even discussing it, we’re discussing one issue at a time,” Mr. Czin said. “We’re talking about TikTok, or about soybeans, these kind of sectoral or even firm-specific issues, rather than talking about the big, meaty, substantive issue that may have been at the heart of this at the outset.”

“令我感到震惊的是，双方不仅没有讨论这些核心问题，反而只是在逐个谈具体议题，”钦说，“我们在谈TikTok，谈大豆，都是这类特定行业甚至特定企业的问题，而非最初可能引发这场冲突的实质性核心问题。”

Compared with Mr. Trump’s first term, both Washington and Beijing have been more willing to take dramatic actions against each other, to the detriment of companies that depend on the trading relationship. In Mr. Trump’s first-term trade war with China, he imposed tariffs of up to 25 percent on just a portion of China’s exports.

与特朗普第一任期相比，如今的美中两国更愿意对彼此采取激进措施，这损害了依赖两国贸易关系的企业利益。在特朗普第一任期的对华贸易战中，他仅对部分中国出口商品加征了最高25%的关税。

This time, in his first months in office, Mr. Trump put a 20 percent tariff on all Chinese exports, in return for the country’s role in channeling fentanyl to the United States. He added another 125 percent tariff that he later dropped to 10 percent. The administration has also placed fees on Chinese ships that dock in American harbors, expanded its technology controls, and threatened an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods as of Nov. 1.

而此次，特朗普在就职后的最初几个月里就以中国涉芬太尼问题为由，对所有中国出口商品加征20%关税；之后又追加125%关税，后来降至10%。特朗普政府还对停靠美国港口的中国船只征收费用，扩大技术管控范围，并威胁自11月1日起对中国商品额外加征100%关税。

While most foreign governments have not retaliated against Mr. Trump’s aggressive trade policy, China has been an exception. Beijing responded to Mr. Trump’s measures with its own tariffs on U.S. exports, including soybeans. It also announced investigations into prominent companies based in the United States, like Nvidia and Qualcomm, and an “anti-discrimination” probe that could result in actions against American firms, in addition to the rare earths curbs.

尽管大多数国家政府未对特朗普激进的贸易政策采取反制措施，但中国是个例外。为回应特朗普的举措，北京对包括大豆在内的美国出口商品加征关税；宣布调查英伟达、高通等美国知名企业；启动可能对美企采取行动的“反歧视”调查；此外还实施了稀土限制措施。

American companies have been caught in the middle. Industry analysts say some factories are weeks away from stopping production if they do not receive more shipments of Chinese rare earth metals and magnets. And some firms worry that conflicting laws and directives from Beijing and Washington prevent them from complying with both.

美国企业被夹在中间。行业分析师表示，若无法获得更多中国稀土金属和磁体供应，部分工厂可能在几周内停产。一些企业担忧，中美两国相互冲突的法律和指令，让它们无法同时遵守双方规定。

Evan Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior adviser at the Asia Group, said Chinese officials believed that they understood Mr. Trump better than in the first administration and knew how to retaliate more effectively.

乔治城大学教授、亚洲集团高级顾问麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)表示，中国官员认为自己比在特朗普第一任期时更了解这位总统，也知道如何更有效地采取反制措施。

The willingness of both the United States and China to take aggressive actions against each other was resulting in an “inherently unstable” situation that could undermine a truce, he said.

他指出，美中两国都有意愿对彼此采取激进措施，这导致局势“本质上不稳定”，可能会破坏休战状态。

“Both sides are approaching the relationship with confidence. Both sides believe that the other needs them more than they do. And ultimately, both sides believe that they have an upper hand,” Mr. Medeiros said. It was, he said, “a very, very dangerous place to be.”

“双方都带着自信对待这段关系，都认为对方比己方更需要这段关系，最终都认为自己占据优势，”麦艾文说。“这种局面非常、非常危险。”

Britain’s electronic surveillance agency devotes more resources to China than any other mission. The country’s foreign spy service has clandestine officers around the world to thwart the Chinese threat. The head of MI5, focused on domestic risks, said this month that Chinese spies threaten national security “every day.”

英国电子监视机构对中国投入的资源超过任何其他任务。该国的海外情报机构在全球部署秘密特工，以应对来自中国的威胁。本月，负责国内安全的英国军情五处负责人表示，中国间谍“每天”都在威胁英国的国家安全。

The message from Britain’s intelligence agencies has been consistent: China is a clear threat.

英国情报机构传递的信息始终如一：中国是一个明确的威胁。

The message from the rest of the British government has been blurrier. This month, prosecutors dropped charges against two British men accused of spying on behalf of China. The case fell apart after the government would not confirm for legal purposes that China was an enemy or threat to national security.

英国政府其他部门传递的信息则没有那么明确。本月，检方撤销了对两名被指为中国进行间谍活动的英国男子的指控。由于政府不愿在法律上确认中国是敌国或国家安全威胁，该案最终流产。

Conservative lawmakers accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government of abandoning the case over fears a trial would anger China and harm economic ties between the two countries, charges he rejected.

保守党议员指责首相基尔·斯塔默领导的政府因担心审判会激怒中国并损害两国经济关系而放弃此案，但斯塔默否认了这一指控。

At the same time, British officials have been debating whether to allow China to build a massive new embassy near the Tower of London. Security officials worry the building will be a nest of spying. The government delayed a decision due last week about whether to allow construction.

与此同时，英国官员一直在讨论是否允许中国在伦敦塔附近建造一座规模庞大的新大使馆。安全官员担心这座建筑会成为间谍活动的窝点。政府推迟了原定于上周做出的是否批准建设的决定。

Both issues highlight the trade-offs that Britain and its allies face navigating relations with China. Western officials want the economic benefits of trading with China, the world’s second-largest economy, yet must balance that desire with the security risks that China poses. China has aggressively spied on Britain and its allies, not only by sweeping up communications but also conducting more pernicious operations such as burrowing into the networks of dams and electrical grids.

这两个问题凸显了英国及其盟友在处理对华关系时面临的权衡困境。西方官员希望从与中国——全球第二大经济体——的贸易中获得经济利益，但同时必须平衡中国带来的安全风险。中国对英国及其盟友大肆进行间谍活动，不仅大规模窃取通信信息，还开展了更具破坏性的行动，例如渗入水坝和电力系统网络。

The tension is acute in Britain, economically weakened in the decade since Brexit and struggling to attract investment and shore up domestic demand.

这种紧张关系在英国表现得尤为突出。脱欧十年来，英国的经济实力遭到削弱，正努力吸引投资并提振内需。

And China can retaliate. Its government can discourage Chinese investment and essentially tell state-owned companies to limit their business in Britain. It can restrict British exports through tariffs, including on autos, one of Britain’s top export commodities, said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University. Additionally, China uses a lot of British bank services that it could divert elsewhere, he said.

中国也有能力进行反制。政府可以阻止中国企业对英投资，告诉国有企业收缩在英业务。康奈尔大学贸易政策教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示，中国还可以通过关税来限制英国出口，其中包括汽车——这是英国的主要出口商品之一。此外，他指出，中国使用了大量英国银行的金融服务，也可以将这些业务转移到他国。

“Britain is in a very weak economic position,” he said, adding, “China is seen as a potential benefactor, if not savior.”

“英国目前的经济状况非常脆弱，”他说，并补充道：“中国被视为一个潜在的资助者，甚至可能是拯救者。”

包括路虎在内的汽车是英国对中国最主要的出口商品之一。

An Economic Lifeline

经济生命线

Britain has much to gain and lose in its relationship with China. China was its fifth-largest trading partner, with trade totaling nearly £100 billion a year, according to government data. Imports from China accounted for more than 70 percent of the total, including telecommunications equipment and machinery.

英中关系对英国而言利益与风险并存。根据政府数据，中国是英国的第五大贸易伙伴，双边贸易额每年接近1000亿英镑。其中，从中国进口的商品占比超过70%，主要包括电信设备和机械。

British leaders have sought in recent years to capitalize on China’s economic might. David Cameron, the prime minister from 2010 to 2016, oversaw what his government described as a “golden era” of close economic relations with China. His successor, Theresa May, traveled to Beijing in 2018 to bolster trade deals. Boris Johnson once vowed his government would be “pro-China.”

近年来，英国领导人一直寻求借力中国的经济实力。2010年至2016年任首相的戴维·卡梅伦推动了他所称的与中国“黄金时代”的紧密经济关系。他的继任者特蕾莎·梅于2018年访问北京深化贸易协定。鲍里斯·约翰逊则曾宣称，他的政府将“亲华”。

Relations between the countries ebbed because of British concerns over Chinese human rights and relentless cyberattacks. Under pressure from the first Trump administration, which took a hard line on China, Britain banned equipment from the Chinese technology giant Huawei in 2020 in the country’s high-speed wireless network. The move infuriated Chinese officials, who vowed Britain would “bear the consequences.”

由于英国对中国人权问题和持续不断的网络攻击感到担忧，两国关系逐渐降温。在对中国采取强硬立场的第一届特朗普政府的压力下，英国于2020年禁止在其高速无线网络中使用中国科技巨头华为的设备。此举激怒了中国官员，他们誓言英国将“承担后果”。

At the time, British officials presciently noted the Huawei episode was one of many complicated questions about China they would face in the years to come.

当时，英国官员就有先见之明地指出，华为事件只是未来几年他们将在对华关系中面临的众多复杂问题之一。

The rift only widened after the arrests of the two men in April 2024, accused of spying on behalf of China and charged with violating Britain’s Official Secrets Act. They were suspected of funneling information to a Chinese intelligence agent working for a company linked to China’s powerful Ministry of State Security.

这一裂痕在2024年4月两名男子被捕后进一步扩大——他们被指控为中国从事间谍活动，并违反英国《官方保密法》。调查显示，两人涉嫌向一名中国情报人员传递信息，此人供职于一家与强大的中国国家安全部有关联的公司。

As the case was being prosecuted, Mr. Starmer was elected and attempted a rapprochement with China. Last year at a Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, he called for a “consistent, durable” relationship with China. He was the first British leader in six years to meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

在案件审理期间，基尔·斯塔默当选首相，并试图修复对华关系。去年在里约热内卢举行的二十国集团峰会上，他呼吁建立一种“稳定而持久”的对华关系。他是六年来首位与中国国家主席习近平会面的英国领导人。

Then, earlier this month, the government’s case collapsed weeks before trial, and the two men were acquitted. They have denied the charges, as did a Chinese government spokesman.

随后，在本月早些时候，距离开庭仅几周时，案件撤销了，两名被告被宣判无罪。他们否认了所有指控，中国政府发言人也同样予以否认。

Mr. Starmer’s critics saw the failed prosecution as political interference. He rebuffed the assertion and blamed Conservatives for moving too slowly to update the country’s laws to allow the case to move forward.

斯塔默的批评者认为，这起失败的起诉案是政治干预的结果。他对此予以反驳，转而指责保守党执政时期未能及时修订相关法律以致案件难以推进。

Hoping to tamp down the accusations that the government had undermined the case to avoid damaging trade with Beijing, Mr. Starmer released court documents from an expert witness intended to show that his government was tough on China.

为了平息外界对政府“为避免损害与北京的贸易关系而破坏案件”的指责，斯塔默公布了来自一名专家证人的法庭文件，试图证明他的政府在对华问题上态度强硬。

In the documents, the witness — Matthew Collins, Britain’s deputy national security adviser — laid out the clear risks presented by China, saying the country “presents the biggest state-based threat to the U.K.’s economic security.”

在这些文件中，证人——英国副国家安全顾问马修·柯林斯——阐明了中国带来的明显风险，称中国“对英国的经济安全构成了最大的国家层面威胁”。

Yet he also wrote, while the Conservative Party was in power, that the government was committed to “pursuing a positive economic relationship with China.” He reiterated similar thoughts about a month after Mr. Starmer assumed office as the head of the Labour Party, highlighting the new government’s desire to maintain “positive” relations with Beijing.

然而，他在保守党执政期间也曾写道，政府致力于“寻求与中国建立积极的经济关系”。在斯塔默作为工党领袖上任大约一个月后，他再次表达了类似的观点，强调新政府希望与北京保持“积极”的关系。

英国首相基尔·斯塔默去年在二十国集团峰会期间与中国国家主席习近平会面。

His statements showed the tensions that British officials have sought to balance, with mixed results.

他的这些表态揭示了英国官员试图在其中取得平衡，而结果参差不齐的两难局面。

“I am not sure if any of us have quite found the absolute way to be ensuring the global economy can benefit from China’s position and so forth while at the same time reining back some of the other aspects, the more worrying aspects of China’s activities,” Mrs. May said in a book about the intelligence-sharing group known as the Five Eyes by the author Richard Kerbaj.

特蕾莎·梅在理查德·克尔巴吉所著的一本关于情报共享组织“五眼联盟”的书中表示：“我不确定我们当中是否有人真正找到两全之策——既能让全球经济从中国的地位等方面受益，同时又能在某种程度上约束中国其他更令人担忧的行为。”

Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, told reporters during an annual update on Oct. 16 that he was frustrated over the collapse of the case that his agency had helped build.

英国军情五处总干事肯·麦卡勒姆在10月16日举行的年度通报会上向记者表示，他对本机构协助建立的案件被撤销感到失望。

“Do Chinese state actors present a U.K. national security threat? And the answer is, of course, yes they do, every day. I’ve said that today. I said that last year. I said it the year before. If I’m in this job a year from now, I’m sure I will say it then too.”

“中国国家行为体是否对英国构成国家安全威胁？答案当然是肯定的，这种威胁每天都在发生。我今天这样说，去年这样说，前年也这样说。如果一年后我仍在这个职位上，我肯定还会这么说。”

Embassy Row

大使馆之争

The Chinese embassy decision has been simmering for months, testing Beijing’s patience. The Chinese authorities have blocked Britain’s plans to rebuild its embassy in Beijing while they await approval for theirs in London.

关于中国新使馆建设的决策问题已酝酿数月，考验着北京的耐心。在等待伦敦新馆获批期间，中国政府已暂停审批英国重建其驻北京大使馆的计划。

China’s plans have been dogged by questions of spying and concerns that China could use the embassy to tap into strategic fiber-optic cables under the financial district and run spy operations out of the complex. If the government approves the 5.5-acre complex, it would be the largest diplomatic outpost in Europe.

中国的大使馆计划一直受到间谍活动相关质疑的困扰，人们担心中国可能利用该使馆窃听金融区下方的战略光纤电缆，并以此为基地开展间谍行动。如果政府批准这一占地223公亩的建筑群，它将成为欧洲规模最大的外交驻地。

China bought the property near the Tower of London in 2018 and submitted an application that was rejected in 2022 by the local London borough. Chinese officials resubmitted the request, and President Xi Jinping spoke with Mr. Starmer last year about the embassy.

中国于2018年购得伦敦塔附近的这块地，并在2022年向当地行政区提交建设申请，但被驳回。之后，中国官员重新提交了申请，而习近平去年也就此事与斯塔默进行了直接沟通。

The British government had been expected to rule on the matter last week but delayed the decision until Dec. 10, citing the complexity of the application.

英国政府原本预计上周就此事作出裁决，但以申请手续复杂为由而将决定推迟至12月10日。

The Chinese government accused British officials of acting in bad faith and issued a veiled threat that echoed its response in the Huawei case. “The British side,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “shall bear all consequences.”

中国政府指责英国官员缺乏诚意，并发出隐晦的威胁，和该国对华为事件的回应如出一辙。中国外交部发言人表示：“英方应承担一切后果。”

On May 26, 2023, a U.S. Air Force plane was on a routine reconnaissance mission over the South China Sea when a Chinese fighter jet banked dangerously close to it. Several months earlier over the same waters, a U.S. military plane was forced to take evasive action when a Chinese fighter came within 20 feet.

2023年5月26日，一架美国空军飞机在南海上空执行例行侦察任务时，一架中国战机在危险接近处倾斜飞行。几个月前，在同一海域，一架中国战斗机距离一架美国军用飞机仅约六米，迫使后者采取规避行动。

Risky intercepts and unsafe encounters like these between air and naval forces of China and the United States and its allies have spiked in recent years, and there appears to be no letup. In August, China released footage of what it claimed was a near miss between Chinese and U.S. helicopters in the Taiwan Strait. Territorial confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have become routine in the South China Sea, and this week Australia said a Chinese fighter jet had released flares dangerously close to an Australian Air Force plane.

近年来，中国与美国及其盟友的空军和海军力量之间的此类危险拦截和不安全相遇事件激增，而且似乎没有缓和的迹象。8月，中国发布了一段视频，称其显示了中美直升机在台湾海峡险些相撞的画面。中菲船只在南海的对峙已成为常态，上周，澳大利亚称一架中国战斗机在危险接近澳大利亚空军飞机的距离释放了干扰弹。

The danger of one of these incidents tipping into an actual conflict has never been higher. Yet in sharp contrast to the era of U.S.-Soviet confrontation, there are virtually no reliable systems of real-time communication between American and Chinese military forces to defuse an inadvertent crisis.

此类事件升级为实际冲突的风险空前之高。然而，与美苏对抗时代形成鲜明对比的是，美中军事力量之间几乎没有可靠的实时沟通机制来化解意外危机。

President Trump, who plans to meet President Xi Jinping of China next week on the sidelines of a regional summit in South Korea, has made clear that his priority with China is a trade deal.

特朗普总统计划本周在韩国举行的一次地区峰会间隙与中国国家主席习近平会面，他已明确表示自己的对华优先事项是达成贸易协议。

But trade depends on peace and stability. By working to lay the foundation for durable crisis management systems with China, Mr. Trump can secure his legacy as the president who pulled the two powers back from the brink of World War III.

但贸易依赖于和平与稳定。通过努力为与中国建立持久的危机管理系统奠定基础，特朗普可以确保自己成为将两个大国从第三次世界大战边缘拉回来的总统，从而留名青史。

History has shown how superpower confrontation can quickly spiral toward nuclear Armageddon. The 1962 Cuban missile crisis is perhaps the most chilling example.

历史表明，超级大国之间的对抗可能迅速升级为核灾难。1962年的古巴导弹危机或许是最令人胆寒的例子。

The United States and China have also come dangerously close to blows.

美国和中国也曾危险地接近交火边缘。

In 2001, a U.S. Navy spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet in the South China Sea. The Chinese pilot was killed, and the American aircraft made an emergency landing on China’s Hainan Island, where the crew was captured. The ensuing 10-day standoff was resolved only after delicate diplomacy that reached the highest levels of the Chinese and U.S. governments.

2001年，一架美国海军侦察机在南海与一架中国战斗机相撞。中国飞行员丧生，美国飞机紧急降落在中国的海南岛，机组人员被扣押。随后是长达10天的对峙，直到中美两国政府最高层进行了微妙的外交斡旋才得以解决。

Whether that kind of crisis resolution can be replicated today is uncertain. China is far more assertive and militarily powerful than it was in 2001, and tensions with the United States are more combustible, amplified by nationalistic pressures on both sides.

此类危机化解模式在当下能否复制，尚不得而知。中国比2001年时更自信，军事力量也更强大，而且与美国的紧张关系更易激化，双方的民族主义压力更是加剧了这种情况。

The situation between the United States and the Soviet Union was different. Although sworn ideological adversaries, they had the wisdom to put reliable checks and balances in place. They notified each other before missile launches, agreed to a range of transparency requirements so that each side could tell that the other’s activities were exercises, not attacks, and followed safety protocols designed to reduce the chance of run-ins. These safeguards remained functional even when tensions spiked.

美国和苏联之间则不同。尽管在意识形态上是死敌，双方有建立可靠制衡机制的智慧。它们在发射导弹前会相互通知，达成一系列透明度要求，以便双方都能判断对方的活动是演习而非攻击，并遵循旨在减少冲突可能性的安全协议。即使在紧张局势加剧时，这些保障措施仍然有效。

The importance of open lines of contact cannot be overestimated.

保持畅通的联络渠道至关重要，其价值不可低估。

In 2015 Russia dramatically increased its military presence in Syria. One of the writers of this essay assisted Ash Carter, then the U.S. secretary of defense, and Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in reopening military communication channels with the Russians that had been severed a year earlier after Russia invaded Crimea. We took measures to avoid accidental clashes in Syria, and no such run-ins occurred.

2015年，俄罗斯大幅增加了其在叙利亚的军事存在。本文的一位作者协助当时的美国国防部长阿什·卡特和参谋长联席会议主席乔·邓福德，重新开启了因俄罗斯入侵克里米亚而在一年前中断的美俄军事沟通渠道。我们采取措施避免在叙利亚发生意外冲突，而此类冲突也并未发生。

There has been a modest level of military contact between China and the United States over the years, but nothing that resulted in the dependable safeguard systems that existed with the Soviets. And China has repeatedly severed all military exchange out of anger, most recently in 2022 after the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi as House speaker.

多年来，中美之间有过一定程度的军事接触，但从未有过像美苏之间那样可靠的保障体系。而且中国多次因愤怒而切断所有军事交流，最近一次是在2022年佩洛西以众议院议长身份访问台湾之后。

President Joe Biden and Mr. Xi agreed in 2023 to re-establish military dialogue. But that agreement came late in Mr. Biden’s presidency and has failed to fully take root. Communication remains precarious and insufficient, consisting of occasional phone calls between top government or military officials and other sporadic engagement. This fragile framework cannot be counted on to quickly defuse potential accidents in the air and at sea the way regular, predictable contact can, and it remains vulnerable to rupture in tense times.

拜登总统和习近平主席在2023年同意重新建立军事对话。但这一协议是在拜登总统任期后期达成的，没有完全落实。沟通仍然不稳定且不充分，主要是政府或军方高层之间偶尔的电话以及其他零星的接触。这种脆弱的框架无法像定期、可预测的接触那样，迅速化解海空潜在事故，而且在紧张时期仍然容易破裂。

There have been encouraging recent signs. Last month Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called the Chinese defense minister, Dong Jun — the Trump administration’s first real step toward correcting this military blind spot. But one-off video calls and predictable measures like setting up hotlines are not enough. During the 2001 crisis, the U.S. ambassador to Beijing, Joe Prueher, was unable to reach senior Chinese military officials at the outset: “They didn’t answer my phone call,” he said. And as the former deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell has put it, past Chinese reluctance to use hotlines means that American calls have “just rung in an empty room for hours upon hours.”

最近有一些令人鼓舞的迹象。上个月，国防部长海格塞思致电中国国防部长董军——这是特朗普政府为纠正这一军事盲点迈出的实质性一步。但一次性的视频通话和设立热线等常规措施是不够的。在2001年的危机中，时任美国驻北京大使乔·普理赫一开始无法联系到中国高级军事官员，“他们不接我的电话，”他说。正如前副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔所说，过去，中国不愿使用热线，这意味着美国的电话“只能在空荡荡的房间里响上几个小时”。

China has hinted at a new readiness to engage. A Chinese military spokesman suggested in late September that Beijing was “open” to pursuing closer military relations with the United States in the name of “greater stability.” In 2017, Mr. Xi himself told General Dunford, the Joint Chiefs chairman, that military ties can act as a stabilizing force in the broader China-U.S. relationship. He was right then, and the point becomes more relevant with each passing day.

中国已暗示有新的接触意愿。一位中国军方发言人在9月下旬表示，北京“愿意”以“高度的稳定性”为名，寻求与美国建立更密切的军事关系。2017年，习近平主席曾亲自告诉参谋长联席会议主席邓福德将军，军事关系可以在更广泛的中美关系中起到稳定作用。他的话在当时是对的，而且这一点随着时间的推移变得越来越重要。

Mr. Trump should build on this momentum by creating a system of routine, sustained, real-time military contact. It could be the difference between war and peace.

特朗普应该利用这一势头，建立一个常态化、持续性、实时性的军事接触体系。这可能是战争与和平的分水岭。

When Air Force One lands on Sunday in Malaysia, President Trump will begin a tour that will bring him face to face with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as well as a region that has been increasingly reshaped by the competition between Beijing and Washington.

上周日，“空军一号”在马来西亚降落，特朗普的亚洲之行由此开启。此行他将与中国最高领导人会晤，并访问一个因中美竞争而经历深刻重塑的地区。

In this new kind of superpower rivalry, he and Mr. Xi are offering contrasting visions for how the world should be ordered, with consequences for chip factories in South Korea, factory floors in Vietnam, the contested waters of the South China Sea and the status of the self-governed island of Taiwan.

在这种新型的超级大国竞争下，他和习近平就世界秩序问题提出了截然不同的愿景，而这些愿景将影响到韩国的芯片工厂、越南的生产线、南海的争议水域，以及台湾这个自治岛屿的地位。

Unlike the Cold War, the battlegrounds for power and influence are centered not only on troops and warships, but also on supply chains, ports and data centers. Governments across Asia are increasingly being pressured to pick sides. Countries caught in the middle, like Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia, must weigh how to benefit from the competition without being held hostage to it.

与冷战不同的是，争夺权力和影响力的“战场”不仅聚焦于军队和舰艇，还包括供应链、港口和数据中心。亚洲各国政府正日益面临选边站队的压力。泰国、新加坡和印度尼西亚等夹在中间的国家必须权衡如何从竞争中获益，而不被竞争所挟持。

“Countries in the region don’t want to be seen as just pawns that the U.S. and P.R.C. can pass over as the two cut deals above their heads,” said Ja Ian Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, using the abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China.

新加坡国立大学政治学教授庄嘉颖说：“该地区的国家不希望被视为只是美国和中国在它们头上谈判、随意摆弄的棋子。”

“They want agency and would much rather have Washington and Beijing woo them so that they can play both powers off one another,” he added.

“他们希望拥有自主权，更愿意华盛顿和北京争相来拉拢，以便能在两大强权之间取得平衡，”他补充道。

That might have been easier in the past when the United States was more engaged with Asia. When an American president visited, it would often be a way to reassure the United States’ friends in the region that Washington had their backs when it came to an increasingly assertive China.

过去这可能更容易实现——那时美国与亚洲的互动更为积极。在以前，美国总统的到访往往被视为一种保证，表明在日益强硬的中国面前，华盛顿会支持该地区的盟友。

But as Mr. Trump arrives on Sunday, America’s commitments to its allies and partners remain an open question, strained by resentment over tariffs and uncertainty over the future of U.S. troop deployments.

然而，当特朗普周上日抵达时，美国对其盟友和伙伴的承诺仍是一个悬而未决的问题——关税引发的不满以及美军部署前景的不确定性，令盟友关系备受压力。

Beijing has sought to take advantage of that uncertainty by offering trade deals and investments to its neighbors, while staking a wider claim to the region as the only superpower willing and able to confront the Trump administration. It has warned the region of the consequences of joining Washington in restricting trade with China.

通过向周边国家提供贸易协议和投资机会，北京方面正试图利用这种不确定性，同时北京也在更广泛地宣示其作为唯一有意愿、有能力抗衡特朗普政府的超级大国地位。中国已警告周边国家，若与华盛顿联手限制对华贸易，将面临严重后果。

“To seek one’s own temporary selfish interests at the expense of others’ interests is to ask a tiger for its skin,” the Commerce Ministry in Beijing said this year, using an idiomatic expression to imply that trying to appease the Trump administration was both dangerous and futile.

“为一己一时私利，以损害别人利益来换取所谓豁免是与虎谋皮，”中国商务部今年曾经用成语暗示，试图讨好特朗普政府既危险又徒劳。

It will be difficult for Asian governments — even U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan — not to feel like bystanders when Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi meet next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. The global economy hangs in the balance as the two leaders hold talks that could either prompt or prevent another full-blown trade war.

当特朗普与习近平在韩国举行的亚太经合组织峰会上会晤时，亚洲各国政府——即便是韩日等美国盟友——难免会产生被晾在一边的感觉。两国元首的会谈将左右全球经济的天平，对话可能引发或者避免又一场全面的贸易战。

Mr. Trump wants Mr. Xi to roll back China’s new export controls on rare earths, restart purchases of U.S. soybeans and do more to crack down on Chinese-made chemicals used to make the highly addictive opioid fentanyl. Most important, experts say, he wants to come away looking like he scored a deal with Mr. Xi, bolstering his image as a strongman.

特朗普希望习近平取消对稀土出口的新管制、恢复对美国大豆的采购，并加大力度管控用于制造高度成瘾性阿片类药物芬太尼的中国化工原料。专家指出，最重要的是他需要营造出与习近平达成协议的观感，以此强化其强人形象。

On the other side is Mr. Xi, who wants Mr. Trump to drop his tariffs on Chinese goods, ease access to U.S. technology like semiconductors and loosen restrictions on Chinese investments in the United States, analysts said. The icing on the cake for Mr. Xi would be if Mr. Trump signaled he was open to reducing Washington’s support for Taiwan.

分析人士表示，中国领导人则希望特朗普取消对华关税，放宽对半导体等美国技术对华出口的限制，以及放松对中国在美投资的限制。若特朗普释放出愿意减少对台支持的信号，对习近平而言将是锦上添花。

Mr. Xi is likely going into the talks feeling that China has the stronger hand. New export rules on rare earths, which are needed for virtually every modern-day technology, have given him powerful leverage. America is still years away from finding suitable alternatives.

习近平很可能带着一种中国占据上风的心态进行这场会谈。中国对几乎所有现代科技产品都必需的稀土元素实施了新的出口管制，这为他提供了强有力的谈判杠杆。而美国要找到合适的替代供应仍需数年时间。

今年，在美国北达科他州罗杰斯的粮仓。特朗普希望习近平能恢复采购美国大豆。

But the export controls also threaten to undermine Beijing’s bid to court other countries, which has included pledging to do more to reduce emissions, and promises to upgrade a free-trade agreement with Southeast Asian nations.

不过，这些出口限制也可能削弱北京在国际舞台上拉拢他国的努力，包括此前曾承诺要在减排方面采取更多行动，并升级与东南亚国家的自由贸易协定。

“They defend multilateralism. They say they are not a hegemon, that they’re not a bully,” said David Meale, the head of Eurasia Group’s China practice and former U.S. deputy chief of mission in Beijing. “I don’t think they quite understand what they did to the world,” he said, referring to the rare earth rules.

“他们捍卫多边主义，声称自己不称霸，不胁迫他国，”欧亚集团中国事务负责人、前美国驻华使团副团长米德伟(David Meale)说。“但我认为他们并没有完全意识到，这对世界造成了怎样的影响。”他指的是稀土管制措施。

When Mr. Trump arrives in Southeast Asia, however, it will also be America’s reputation that will be scrutinized. Countries are still reeling from his sweeping tariffs, which hit their export-dependent economies hard.

当特朗普抵达东南亚时，美国的声誉也同样面临审视。各国仍在努力应对他那一系列广泛关税带来的冲击——这些关税严重打击了依赖出口的经济体。

Skepticism of the United States has also grown over the Trump administration’s sudden withdrawal of foreign aid, and over Washington’s support for Israel’s assault on Gaza. Mr. Trump is so unpopular in Malaysia, a predominantly Muslim nation, that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim even felt compelled to clarify that the invitation to the American president was made on behalf of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and not a bilateral overture.

与此同时，外界对美国的不信任也因特朗普政府突然削减对外援助，以及华盛顿对以色列在加沙行动的支持而进一步加深。在以穆斯林人口为主的马来西亚，特朗普极不受欢迎，以至于首相安瓦尔·易卜拉欣不得不澄清：此次邀请这位美国总统来访是基于东盟轮值主席国身份，并非改善两国关系的主动示好。

That skepticism is compounded by unease over the growing feud between the United States and China and what it could mean for a region that has long shied away from choosing sides.

这种疑虑因中美日益加剧的摩擦及其对长期不愿选边站地区的潜在影响而加深。

Lynn Kuok, a Southeast Asia expert at the Brookings Institution, said that with the uncertainty surrounding the United States, many Southeast Asian countries were trying to deepen ties with Gulf nations and Europe.

布鲁金斯学会东南亚问题专家琳恩·郭表示，鉴于美国政策的不确定性，许多东南亚国家正尝试加深与海湾国家和欧洲的联系。

“That said, given China’s proximity and sustained engagement, the region could tilt further toward China, by design or necessity,” she said. “Beijing’s longstanding economic, strategic and diplomatic engagement with the region both bilaterally and multilaterally positions it to gain the most from any vacuum left by Washington.”

“话虽如此，考虑到中国的地理邻近以及持续的区域参与，东南亚各国可能会出于战略考量或现实需要而进一步向中国倾斜，”她说。“北京通过长期与该地区建立的双边及多边经济、战略和外交联系，已占据有利地位，足以从华盛顿留下的任何权力真空中获取最大利益。”

China will no doubt be a major topic when Mr. Trump goes to Japan, where he will meet Sanae Takaichi, who this past week was elected as the country’s prime minister, the first woman to serve in that role.

当特朗普前往日本时，中国无疑将成为重要议题。他将在那里会见高市早苗——这位刚当选的新任日本首相是日本历史上首位女性首相。

Ms. Takaichi suggested during her leadership bid that she could take a tougher approach in dealing with the Trump administration. But she has recently struck a moderate tone, pledging to work to preserve a trade agreement signed by her predecessor in July.

在竞选期间，高市早苗曾表示，可能会在对待特朗普政府的问题上采取更为强硬的立场。但她最近语气趋于温和，承诺将努力维护前任于7月签署的贸易协定。

Ms. Takaichi is expected to make building a rapport with Mr. Trump a priority, tapping into their shared admiration for Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister who was assassinated in 2022, and who was a mentor to Ms. Takaichi.

高市早苗预计将把与特朗普建立良好关系作为优先事项，借助他们对前首相安倍晋三的共同敬仰来拉近距离。于2022年遇刺身亡的安倍一直是高市在政治上的导师。

She is also likely to raise the concerns about China’s growing military and economic power in Asia.

她还可能在会谈中提出中国在亚洲日益增长的军事与经济影响力所引发的担忧。

Similar concerns are being felt in South Korea, a staunch ally of the United States that now finds itself increasingly caught between its dependence on American security and its reliance on trade with China. South Korea hopes that a meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi, which is expected on Thursday, will help ease their tension so South Korea can have more breathing room.

韩国同样存在类似的忧虑。这个美国传统盟友日益陷入两难境地——它一方面依赖美国的安全保障，另一方面又离不开对华贸易往来。韩国希望预计于周四举行的特朗普与习近平的会晤能有助于缓和双方紧张关系，从而为自己赢得更多战略回旋空间。

During a visit to Washington in August, President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged that it was getting harder to strike a balance given the intensifying competition between the two giants, saying, “it’s no longer possible to maintain that kind of logic.”

在8月访问华盛顿期间，韩国总统李在明承认，随着两个大国竞争加剧，维持原有的平衡越来越困难。他表示：“如今已不可能再继续维持那种逻辑了。”

For months, companies and officials throughout Asia have been waiting for President Trump to address a question that cuts to the heart of his disruptive plans for global trade.

数月来，亚洲各地的企业和官员一直在等待特朗普总统解答一个问题——这个问题关乎他对全球贸易所提出的颠覆性计划的核心。

How will he decide the origin of goods in a world where virtually all the things we buy, from computers and phones to sofas and cars, contain parts that come from different countries?

在当今世界，我们购买的几乎所有商品——从电脑、手机到沙发、汽车——都包含来自不同国家的零部件，特朗普将如何判定这些商品的原产地？

The answer is central to Mr. Trump’s aim to reduce China’s dominant role as the starting point for many of the world’s manufactured goods.

这个问题的答案对特朗普至关重要，因为他的目标之一是削弱中国作为全球众多制成品起点的主导地位。

“It’s a sleeper issue,” said Wendy Cutler, a senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank. “People are trying to convince themselves that it is just technical, but if you take a step back, it’s all going to rest on this.”

“这是一个潜伏的问题，”智库亚洲协会政策研究所高级副总裁温迪·卡特勒表示。“人们试图说服自己这只是技术层面的问题，但退一步看，所有事情最终都将取决于此。”

No other region is more exposed to Mr. Trump’s crackdown than Southeast Asia. Billions of dollars a year in raw materials, machinery and finished goods flow from China through Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries across the region.

在特朗普的贸易打击行动中，没有哪个地区比东南亚面临的风险更大。每年，数以十亿计美元的原材料、机械设备和制成品从中国流向越南、泰国、马来西亚等东南亚国家。

In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sunday, at the start of his nearly weeklong trip to Asia, Mr. Trump announced trade agreements with several Southeast Asian countries. The documents, to varying degrees, acknowledged pass-through trade and tariff evasion, but the announcements did not contain details addressing how he wants to define the nationality of goods.

周日，特朗普来到马来西亚吉隆坡，开启了为期近一周的亚洲之行，并与多个东南亚国家签署了贸易协议。这些文件在不同程度上承认了转口贸易和关税规避现象的存在，但并未详细说明他计划如何定义商品的国籍。

The determination that the Trump administration makes on the so-called rule of origin could blow up laboriously negotiated agreements. That is because if a product is shipped from one country but does not meet the origin criteria, it will be hit with a hefty special tariff, which Mr. Trump has warned will be 40 percent.

特朗普政府对所谓原产地规则的判定可能会让各方辛苦谈判达成的协议化为泡影。原因在于，若某件商品从一国出口，但未达到原产地标准，就将面临高额特别关税——特朗普此前已警告，这一税率可能高达40%。

This summer, Mr. Trump, pulling back on his opening salvo of sky-high tariffs in Asia, announced frameworks for most Southeast Asia countries with across-the-board tariffs that settled at 19 or 20 percent.

今年夏天，特朗普调整了最初在亚洲推出的高额关税政策，宣布对多数东南亚国家实施统一关税框架，将全面关税稳定在19%或20%。

曼谷一家宠物食品工厂。每年有价值数十亿美元的中国产品通过泰国及该地区其他国家流通。

Mr. Trump’s trade legacy in his first term was to force companies to set up factories outside China. Now, he is trying to cut China out of supply chains. China has moved goods through Southeast Asia to circumvent American tariffs and has been the source of a swell of exports to the region, much of those in machinery and raw materials that regional factories depend on.

特朗普第一任期内的贸易遗产是迫使企业将工厂迁出中国；如今，他正试图将中国彻底排除在供应链之外。此前，中国一直通过东南亚转运商品以规避美国关税，同时也向东南亚大量出口，其中大部分是该地区工厂依赖的机械设备和原材料。

Many of the components in the things that are made around the world come from China, from the screws and glue that hold metal and wood together to the minerals in smartphone batteries.

如今全球生产的商品中，许多零部件都来自中国，从连接金属与木材的螺丝和胶水，到智能手机电池中的矿物。

Yet even in Malaysia, where signing a deal with Mr. Trump would be seen as a positive development, there is some hesitancy about the unilateral way that the United States is going about setting new rules for global trade.

即便在马来西亚——该国与特朗普签署协议本应被视为积极进展——当地对美国单方面制定全球贸易新规则的做法也存在顾虑。

Malaysia’s biggest trading partner is China, but one of its biggest industries, semiconductors, depends heavily on the American market, and its exports are at risk with the possibility of separate sector tariffs.

中国是马来西亚最大的贸易伙伴，但马来西亚的重要产业——半导体行业——又高度依赖美国市场，若美国对该行业单独加征关税，其出口将面临风险。。

“All we can do is express our concerns — hopefully, they are listening to the confusion,” said Siobhan Das, chief executive of AmCham Malaysia, which represents American companies in Malaysia. “With this trade agreement, what we’re hoping for is that there is clarity and a guideline for how supply chains need to move.”

“我们能做的只有表达担忧，希望美方能倾听这些困惑，”马来西亚美国商会首席执行官西沃恩·达斯表示，该机构代表在马来西亚的美资企业。“我们期待这项贸易协定能为供应链运作提供明确指引。”

Trump administration officials have been vocal about setting one rule-of-origin target for the region. They have focused on 30 percent: Any product containing more than that level of foreign parts or content sent to the United States would face the special transshipment tariff. While discussions are fluid, one thing is clear: For much of Southeast Asia, such a low figure would be difficult to meet.

特朗普政府官员多次公开表示，计划为东南亚地区设定统一的原产地规则标准。他们将重点放在30%这一比例上：任何出口到美国的商品，若外国零部件或成分占比超过30%，就将面临特别转运关税。尽管相关讨论仍在推进，但有一点很明确：对大多数东南亚国家而言，这样低的比例也很难达到。

Even if the administration clarifies a final number, for many companies and governments there are many more questions. What counts as foreign content? Does it include foreign investment in a factory? A foreign-branded machine? Foreign workers? In recent years, many factories from China have moved some of their operations to countries like Vietnam but have created local supply chains and employ local workers.

即便政府明确了最终比例，企业和各国政府仍有诸多疑问：哪些内容算作“外国成分”？是否包括对工厂的外国投资？外国品牌的设备算不算？外籍员工的贡献算不算？近年来，许多中国工厂已将部分业务转移到越南等国，但同时也在当地建立了供应链，并雇佣了本地员工。

台湾某工厂的螺钉紧固件。

And whose role will it be to police this new content rule?

此外，谁将负责监管这项新的成分规则？

“You’re talking about creating an entire new policing agency for exports to the U.S.,” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm.

“这相当于要针对向美国的出口物创建一个全新的监管机构，”地缘政治咨询公司亚太顾问公司首席执行官史蒂夫·奥肯表示。

Governments in Southeast Asia are facing a dilemma. Getting clarity on the rule-of-origin number is crucial before signing broader trade agreements. Many of the products they export may not be able to meet the new definition for a local product.

东南亚各国政府正面临两难困境：在签署更广泛的贸易协议前，明确原产地比例标准至关重要，但他们出口的许多商品可能无法满足本地产品的新定义。

But if they don’t sign something more concrete than the initial trade agreements with the United States soon, they face the threat of the original steep tariffs that Mr. Trump threatened in the spring.

可如果不尽快与美国签署比初步协议更具体的文件，他们又将面临特朗普今年春季威胁实施的初始高额关税。

“It’s deeply unsettling from an economic point of view, because if tariffs were to snap back to those original levels, that would be devastating,” said Daniel Kritenbrink, a longtime American diplomatic official in Asia and former ambassador to Vietnam now at the Asia Group, a think tank. “From a broader strategic point of view, these are countries that look to the U.S. as a balance or guarantor for strategic stability in the region.”

“从经济角度来看，这极其令人不安——若关税恢复到最初水平，后果将是毁灭性的，”长期在亚洲任职的美国外交官、前美国驻越南大使、现任职于智库亚洲集团的丹尼尔·克里滕布林克表示。“从更广泛的战略角度看，这些国家将美国视为地区战略稳定的平衡者和保障者。”

The countries will also have to negotiate with Mr. Trump over various sector tariffs under a legal provision in the United States known as Section 232, covering products ranging from semiconductors to machinery, furniture and pharmaceuticals.

根据美国的一项称为“232条款”的法律规定，这些国家还需就涵盖半导体、机械、家具及药品等各类产品的行业关税与特朗普展开谈判。

All of this will come as Mr. Trump is expected to meet with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in South Korea at the end of the week to talk about a host of economic and political issues dividing the world’s superpowers.

与此同时，特朗普预计将于本周末在韩国同中国国家领导人习近平会晤，两人将讨论全球两大超级大国的一系列经济和政治分歧。

“If you’re heavily dependent on China, then you are between a rock and a hard place,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, an organization that focuses on trade.

“如果一个国家高度依赖中国，那它就会陷入左右为难的境地，”专注于贸易领域的亨里希基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯表示。

“No matter how much leverage you have, you’re still a lot smaller than the U.S. or China,” she said.

“无论你拥有多少影响力，与美国或中国相比，规模都小得多。”

On a recent weeknight, Lin Yung-pin was guiding a group of Taiwanese visitors around Myeongdong, a bustling tourist hot spot in Seoul that has also been the site of anti-China protests over the years. To ward off potential harassment, Mr. Lin said, some members of his groups wear badges or carry signs that identify them as being from Taiwan, not China.

不久前一个工作日的晚上，林永彬（音）带着一群台湾游客在首尔明洞观光。多年来，这个繁华的旅游热门地段一直有反中抗议活动。林永彬说，为了避免可能遭到的骚扰，一些团员戴着徽章或携带标识，表明自己来自台湾，而不是中国。

Anti-China sentiment is not new in South Korea, but Seoul has seen a surge in demonstrations by far-right groups in recent weeks over the easing of visa rules for Chinese tourist groups. Demonstrators, in the hundreds, have carried signs saying “Korea for Koreans” and “Stop the Chinese Boats,” and some have chanted racial slurs, according to local news media.

在韩国，反中情绪并不新鲜，但最近几周，首尔极右翼团体的示威活动激增，抗议政府放宽对中国旅游团的签证规定。据当地媒体报道，数百名示威者举着写有“韩国是韩国人的韩国”和“阻止中国船只”的标语，一些人还高呼种族歧视口号。

South Korea’s government and law enforcement authorities are pushing to contain these protests, which have become a tricky issue for President Lee Jae Myung to navigate next week as his country hosts both President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, ahead of an Asia-Pacific economic summit.

韩国政府及执法部门正努力遏制这些抗议活动。随着亚太经合组织峰会临近，韩国下周将同时接待美国总统特朗普和中国国家主席习近平，这些抗议成了李在明总统面临的棘手难题。

Mr. Lin estimated that about one in 20 of the people who come on his tours will have a badge or sign indicating they are from Taiwan. “If they get mistaken as Chinese and harassed, they can show it and they’ll be left alone,” he said.

林永彬估计，他的旅游团中，大约每20个人中就会有一个人带着表明自己来自台湾的徽章或标识。他说：“如果他们被误认为是中国人并受到骚扰，他们出示标识就会被放过。”

Mr. Lin, who is from Taiwan, said he also advises Taiwanese tourists to avoid speaking Mandarin if they find themselves near an anti-China demonstration.

来自台湾的林永彬说，他还建议台湾游客如果发现附近有反中示威，应该避免说普通话。

The protests threaten to further complicate the delicate diplomacy required of Mr. Lee next week as South Korea hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump are expected to meet ahead that summit.

韩国将在下周主办亚太经济合作组织峰会，习近平与特朗普预计将在峰会前举行会晤。抗议活动可能会使李在明需要处理的微妙外交关系进一步复杂化。

Mr. Lee has condemned the anti-China protests, describing them as “self-destructive conduct that damages the national interest and image,” according to local news media. His progressive Democratic Party of Korea has introduced a bill in the National Assembly to ban rallies that promote hatred or discrimination, but faces opposition from the conservatives, who have said it could suppress dissent.

据当地媒体报道，李在明谴责了反中抗议活动，称其为“损害国家利益和形象的自我毁灭行为”。他领导的进步党派韩国民主党在国民大会提出了一项法案，禁止煽动仇恨或歧视的集会，但遭到保守派的反对，后者表示该法案可能会压制异见。

It is a fine line to walk for Mr. Lee, as he strives to quell potentially embarrassing protests without being perceived as cracking down too harshly.

对于李在明来说，这是一条微妙的界线，他既要努力平息可能引发尴尬的抗议活动，又不能让外界觉得他在严厉镇压。

“South Korea has a very lively protest culture,” said John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations who is based in Seoul. A severe response could “galvanize larger support for the protests — not out of anti-C.C.P. sentiment, but out of pro-protest culture sentiment,” he said, using the acronym for the Chinese Communist Party.

“韩国有一种非常活跃的抗议文化，”亚洲协会美中关系中心驻首尔的高级研究员鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。严厉的回应可能会“激发对抗议活动的更大支持——并非源于反中共情绪，而是源于对抗议文化的认同”。

The relationship between Seoul and Beijing dropped to a low after the 2016 decision to deploy an advanced U.S. antimissile system in South Korea, which prompted economic and diplomatic retaliation from China. In the years since, although the relationship stabilized, surveys have shown growing distrust of China among South Koreans, particularly the younger generation.

2016年，美国决定在韩国部署先进的反导系统，引发了中国的经济和外交报复，此后首尔和北京的关系降至低点。在那之后的几年里，尽管两国关系趋于稳定，但调查显示，韩国人对中国的不信任日益加深，尤其是年轻一代。

The recent protests appear to have evolved from the demonstrations that began this year in support of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was expelled from office in April following his short-lived imposition of martial law. Many of the far-right activists and influencers who rallied around Mr. Yoon, a conservative, promoted anti-China theories, including the suggestion that Beijing was secretly manipulating elections in South Korea. Mr. Yoon also raised suspicions about Chinese spies when defending his martial law declaration.

近期的抗议活动似乎源于今年为支持前总统尹锡悦而发起的示威，这位保守派政治人物因短暂实施戒严令，于4月遭罢免。许多围绕尹锡悦的极右翼活动人士和网红宣扬反中论，包括北京秘密操纵韩国选举的说法。尹锡悦为自己的戒严令辩护时，也曾暗示存在中国间谍活动。

Since Mr. Yoon’s impeachment, the continuing protests have become a catchall for a wide swath of right-wing concerns, with much of their rhetoric borrowed from right-wing campaigns in other countries like the “Stop the Steal” campaign after Mr. Trump’s 2020 election loss.

自尹锡悦被弹劾以来，持续的抗议活动逐渐成为右翼群体诉求的汇集点，其中许多言论借鉴了其他国家的右翼运动，比如特朗普在2020年大选失利后发起的“阻止窃选”运动。

In addition to signs and chants protesting China, demonstrators have also called for Mr. Yoon’s reinstatement, condemned Mr. Lee’s leadership and commemorated the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the right-wing activist and Trump ally who was killed in Utah last month, according to photos and videos from the protests.

抗议活动的影像资料显示，除了抗议中国的标语和口号外，示威者还呼吁尹锡悦复职，谴责李在明的领导，并纪念上个月在犹他州遇害的右翼活动人士、特朗普的盟友查理·柯克。

Both Seoul and Beijing have sought to downplay the protesters as a fringe group. The Chinese Embassy in Seoul warned Chinese travelers this month to be vigilant when traveling to South Korea because of protests organized by “certain far right groups” but stressed that the majority of South Koreans welcomed Chinese tourists.

首尔和北京均试图将抗议者淡化为边缘群体。中国驻韩使馆本月警告中国游客，因“某些极右翼团体”组织抗议活动，赴韩旅行需保持警惕，但同时强调大多数韩国民众欢迎中国游客。

For many tourists, the protests have not dampened their experience of Seoul. Mr. Lin, the Taiwanese tour guide, said that beyond taking basic precautions, neither he nor the tourists who came on his tours were too anxious about the protests.

对许多游客来说，抗议活动并没有影响他们的首尔之行。台湾导游林永彬说，除了基本防范措施外，他和团员都未对抗议活动过度担忧。

Brian Lu, 23, a livestreamer from China’s Guizhou province who was visiting Seoul after attending a concert in a nearby city, said that contrary to reports of anti-Chinese discrimination in the media, he had nothing but positive experiences in South Korea.

23岁的布莱恩·陆（音）是来自中国贵州省的一名直播主播，他在附近城市参加完一场演唱会后来首尔旅游，他说，与媒体上有关反中歧视的报道相反，他在韩国的经历非常愉快。

“It’s not like what’s portrayed online,” he said. “The people here smile a lot, a lot of people will greet you, and they’re very polite.”

“现实和网上描述的完全不一样，”他说，“这里的人常挂着微笑，很多人会主动打招呼，而且非常有礼貌。”

Chinese and American trade negotiators said on Sunday that they had agreed to a framework of a deal on tariffs and other issues ahead of an expected meeting of the countries’ top leaders this week.

中美贸易谈判代表周日表示，双方已就关税及其他问题达成一项协议框架，两国领导人预计将于本周举行会晤。

“We are moving forward to the final details of the type of agreement that the leaders can review and decide if they want to conclude together,” Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, said to reporters in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital.

“我们正在敲定最终协议的细节，让两国领导人可以审阅并决定是否要共同完成这项协议，”美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在马来西亚首都吉隆坡对记者表示。

He also said the two sides had also discussed another extension in a series of truces on tariffs they have engaged in this year.

他还表示，双方还讨论了再次延长今年达成的一系列关税停战协议。

China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, described the talks between the United States and China as “candid and in-depth discussions” on the trade deal, adding that the two sides had reached a “preliminary consensus.”

中国首席贸易谈判代表李成钢表示，美中双方就贸易协议进行了“深入、坦诚的讨论”，并称双方已达成“初步共识”。

The negotiators were in Kuala Lumpur for a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where President Trump began a nearly weeklong trip to Asia. He is expected to meet on Thursday with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, at a separate economic meeting in South Korea.

谈判代表们在吉隆坡出席东盟会议，美国总统特朗普也在此开启了他为期近一周的亚洲之行。预计他将于周四在韩国举行的另一个经济会议上与中国最高领导人习近平会面。

The variety of issues discussed in Kuala Lumpur included bilateral trade, export controls, reciprocal tariff extensions, fentanyl-related tariffs and cooperation on combating fentanyl trafficking, according to the Chinese side.

据中方介绍，在吉隆坡讨论的议题包括双边贸易、出口管制、延长对等关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作等。

Mr. Greer said that the negotiations had included rare earth metals, which are mostly produced in China and which are now subject to stringent export controls imposed this year by Beijing. “We talked about extending the truce, we talked about rare earths, of course, we talked about all kinds of topics,” he said.

格里尔表示，谈判还涉及稀土金属——绝大部分稀土金属由中国生产，北京今年已对其实施严格的出口管制。“我们讨论了延长贸易休战，当然也讨论了稀土，我们谈到了各种各样的议题，”他说。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told ABC’s “This Week” that he anticipated a “fantastic meeting” between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in South Korea later this week. The framework agreed to by American and Chinese officials, which include agricultural purchases and fentanyl-related tariffs, will act as something of a “pregame” for the meeting, he said.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在接受ABC《本周》节目采访时表示，他预计特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平于本周晚些时候将在韩国举行一次“极好的会晤”。他表示，美中官员达成的框架协议包括农产品采购和芬太尼相关关税，将在某种程度上作为此次会晤的“预热”。

“The president had given me maximum leverage when he threatened 100 percent tariffs if the Chinese imposed their rare earth global export controls,” Mr. Bessent said. “I think we have averted that, so the tariffs will be averted.”

“总统警告中国若实施稀土全球出口管制，他将征收100%的关税，这给了我最大的谈判筹码，”贝森特说。“现在看来这个威胁已经化解，加征关税的措施得以避免。”

Asked what concessions China was willing to make on rare earth minerals, Mr. Bessent said he expected China would “delay that for a year while they re-examine it.”

当被问及中国在稀土矿物问题上愿意作出的让步时，贝森特表示，他预计中国将“推迟一年执行这些措施，同时重新审视相关政策”。

The discussions also included steep port fees that the United States recently imposed on ships that were built in China or are owned by Chinese companies. China has retaliated by putting tariffs on American-built ships — few are left on international routes — and on ships partly or entirely owned by American companies or investors.

会谈内容还包括了美国最近对在中国建造或由中国公司拥有的船只征收的高额港口费。中国则采取报复措施，对美国建造的船只——目前仍在国际航线上运营的已所剩无几——以及部分或全部由美国公司或投资者拥有的船只征收关税。

Both sides were careful to suggest that they did not have a final deal.

双方都谨慎地表示，他们尚未达成最终协议。

“China and the United States constructively explored a plan for appropriately dealing with some of the concerns of both sides,” Mr. Li said. He added, “The next step is for each side to fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures.”

“双方就妥善解决彼此关注的多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识，”李成钢说。他还表示，“下一步将履行各自国内批准程序。”

Mr. Li’s reference to “internal approval procedures” used a Chinese term that could be construed as signaling that administrative steps may be planned. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued extensive export regulations on Oct. 9 that immediately halted any further transfer out of China of the technology needed to process rare earth metals.

李成钢提到的“国内批准程序”可以被解读为计划采取行政措施。中国商务部于10月9日发布了范围广泛的出口新规，立即停止了任何进一步从中国输出稀土金属加工技术的行为。

Rare earth metals are essential to a wide range of advanced manufacturing, including the production of cars, semiconductors, drones, factory robots and offshore wind turbines, as well as missiles, fighter jets, tanks and other military equipment. China produces 90 percent of the world’s refined rare earths and rare earth magnets, and up to 100 percent of some kinds of rare earths that are particularly needed for the most cutting-edge technologies and military applications.

稀土金属对于各种先进制造至关重要，包括汽车、半导体、无人机、工业机器人、海上风力涡轮机，以及导弹、战斗机、坦克和其他军用装备的生产。中国生产了全球90%的精炼稀土及稀土磁铁，某些尖端技术和军事应用所需的稀土品类中，中国甚至占据了高达100%的产量。

China’s Ministry of Commerce has severely restricted exports of rare earths and rare earth magnets to countries all over the world since April 4. It ordered further export controls on Oct. 9 that are scheduled to take effect on Nov. 8 and Dec. 1. Those rules would limit any shipments across any country’s borders of products containing Chinese rare earth magnets. The rules would also limit exports of equipment to make electric car batteries, another sector in which China is trying to preserve its global technological leadership.

自4月4日以来，中国商务部已大幅限制向世界各国出口稀土及稀土磁铁。该部10月9日颁布进一步出口管制规定，计划于11月8日和12月1日生效。这些规定将限制含有中国稀土磁铁的产品跨境运输，也将限制制造电动车电池所需设备的出口——这一领域同样是中国试图保持全球技术领先地位的产业。

The new regulations would also limit exports of considerable equipment, like diamond saws, that are needed in the manufacturing of semiconductors and solar panels. Mr. Trump has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on goods from China if Beijing goes ahead with the export controls.

新规还将限制出口用于制造半导体和太阳能电池板的重要设备，例如金刚石锯片。特朗普威胁，若北京推进这些出口管制，将对来自中国的商品征收100%的关税。

Mr. Bessent echoed Mr. Greer and Mr. Li in cautiously portraying progress achieved in the Kuala Lumpur talks. “We have a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss,” he told reporters after the negotiations on Sunday.

和李成钢一样，贝森特与格里尔谨慎描述了吉隆坡谈判取得的进展。“我们为两国领导人之间的讨论奠定了一个非常成功的框架，”他在周日谈判结束后对记者说。

In Beijing’s version of the trade war, the United States is the bully and China is a victim, a rising power trying to protect the global economy while Washington unfairly hurls tariffs and technology bans its way.

在中国对贸易战的叙事中，美国是恃强凌弱者，而中国则是受害者——作为一个崛起中的大国，中国努力维护全球经济稳定，却遭遇美国不公平的关税制裁和技术禁令。

That narrative is getting harder to square with the image of China that has emerged in recent days: that of an industrial juggernaut ready to use its chokehold over minerals crucial to modern manufacturing against any country, or company, that stands in its way.

然而，近日中国展现出的形象却与此叙事愈发矛盾：这个工业巨兽正准备利用其在现代制造业关键矿产领域的垄断地位对抗任何阻碍其发展的国家或企业。

China mines and processes much of the world’s rare earths, which are needed for everything from computer chips to electric vehicles and fighter jets. In retaliation against President Trump’s tariffs and tech restrictions, Beijing has introduced a system that would control the trade of a huge swath of tech products, anywhere in the world, that contain trace amounts of Chinese rare earths.

中国开采和加工了全球大部分稀土资源，这种资源广泛应用于计算机芯片、电动汽车、战斗机等各类产品。为报复特朗普总统的关税政策和技术限制，北京曾多次限制稀土出口，引发全球供应链混乱。如今中国官员正扩大管控范围，将全球哪怕只含微量中国稀土的科技产品尽数纳入监管。

The move gives Beijing powerful leverage going into a meeting next week between Mr. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, a chance to remind Washington that China’s grip on the minerals can shape the terms of any trade truce.

此举使中国在特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平本月可能举行的会面中掌握了强大筹码，也让中国有机会向美国表明，中国对关键矿产的掌控能力能够影响任何贸易休战的条款。

Still, the economic muscle-flexing could backfire for Beijing, which has spent years condemning the American export controls that it now says it is copying. By showing its willingness to weaponize rare earths — limiting access to only those countries that it favors — China risks looking like the irresponsible hegemon that it often accuses the United States of being.

不过，这种经济施压可能会给中国带来适得其反的效果。多年来，中国一直谴责此类出口管制措施，如今却表示自己正效仿美国的做法。通过展现将稀土武器化的意愿——仅向北京青睐的对象开放供应——中国可能会被视为其经常指责的那种不负责任的霸权国家。

“China’s walking a fine line here between strengthening its position in U.S.-China trade negotiations and scaring the rest of the world about its export control intentions,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

“中国正走在钢丝上：一方面要巩固其在中美贸易谈判中的地位，另一方面又要避免让世界其他国家对其出口管制意图产生恐慌，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国分析中心研究员牛犇(Neil Thomas)表示。

China has pressed Washington to drop its restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductor chips, lower tariffs and remove obstacles to Chinese investment in the United States. In response, Mr. Trump has threatened an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese products and export restrictions on U.S. software.

中国敦促华盛顿取消对先进半导体芯片的出口限制，降低关税并消除中国对美投资的障碍。作为回应，特朗普威胁对华商品加征100%关税，并对美国软件实施出口限制。

The two sides, analysts believe, could try to stabilize the relationship and agree to suspend their most punitive measures — meaning a pause on U.S. tariffs and expanded tech restrictions, and a delay in the Chinese controls on rare earths.

分析人士认为，双方可能试图稳定关系，并同意暂停最严厉的惩罚性措施——这意味着美国将暂停加征关税和扩大技术限制，而中国则推迟实施稀土出口管制。

位于中国北方的包头市的一家稀土精炼厂。

The Chinese controls would require exporters, starting in December, to seek approval from Beijing to sell components that include Chinese rare earths or were made with Chinese equipment. Chinese officials say the rules are meant to prevent the country’s rare earths from being used to develop weapons. But they would also allow Beijing to selectively turn the spigot on or off for political reasons.

中国出口管制自12月起生效，出口商若销售含中国稀土或使用中国设备制造的零部件，则须获得北京批准。中方官员称此举旨在防止稀土资源被用于武器研发，但该机制也赋予北京基于政治考量选择性控制供应的权力。

“If bilateral relations are bad or not good, then it may take a long time to handle the applications for export. Or even in some cases, applications may be rejected,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“如果双边关系不佳，那么出口申请可能需要很长时间才能处理，甚至在某些情况下可能会被拒绝，”上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示。

China has also said that Beijing is merely mirroring extraterritorial export controls first imposed by the United States, like those imposed to block technology to the Chinese tech giant Huawei.

中国还表示，此举只是效仿美国及其盟友率先实施的跨境出口管制措施，例如美国为阻止向中国科技巨头华为提供技术而采取的限制。

“We basically followed the precedent set up by the U.S. and its allies a long time ago, so if you want to say this is coercive, fine, you know, we just learned from you, right?” Mr. Wu said.

“我们基本上是遵循了美国及其盟友很久以前设定的先例，所以如果你想说这是胁迫行为，那也可以，你知道，毕竟我们是向你们学的，不是吗？”吴心伯说。

That naked coercion, which some analysts have compared to Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs for its wide-reaching, one-sided approach, may undermine efforts by Chinese leaders to cast their country as a reliable trading partner, a defender of globalization and a viable alternative to the United States as a global leader.

这种赤裸裸的胁迫行为——因其影响广泛且单边性强，一些分析师将其与特朗普的“解放日关税”相提并论——可能会削弱中国领导人试图塑造的形象：可靠的贸易伙伴、全球化的捍卫者，以及能够替代美国的全球领导者。

As the backlash against the measures has grown, Chinese officials have been trying to downplay them, saying that they are not export bans.

随着国际社会对该举措的反对声浪日益高涨，中国官员正试图淡化其影响，称这些措施并非出口禁令。

China’s vice commerce minister Ling Ji met on Monday with representatives of more than 170 foreign companies and business groups, offering reassurances that China would continue to approve “legitimate” transactions and maintain stability in the supply of rare earths.

中国商务部副部长凌激周一会见了170多家外国企业和商业团体的代表，承诺中国将继续批准“合法交易”，维护全球稀土供应链的稳定。

But experts say China is unlikely to roll back the measures. Chinese officials have been honing export controls as a tool since as early as 2017.

但专家表示，中国不太可能撤销这些措施。早在2017年，中国官员就已开始将出口管制打造成一种政策工具。

“The gun is loaded, and they’ve demonstrated their intention to pull the trigger at some point,” said Rush Doshi, a former Biden administration official and author of “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”

“枪已上膛，他们已经表明了在适当时候扣动扳机的意图，”前拜登政府官员、《长期博弈——中国取代美国秩序的宏伟战略》(The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order)一书作者拉什·多希表示。

“So the question now is only what issue they’ll pull the trigger on,” he said. Beijing, he added, is likely to use the controls to strengthen its hand first in economic negotiations and eventually over other issues, including its claims over Taiwan, the island democracy.

“所以现在的问题只是他们会在哪个问题上扣动扳机，”他还说，中国可能会首先利用这些管控措施在经济谈判中增强筹码，最终将其应用于其他问题，包括其对台湾这个民主岛屿的主张。

At home, there is a degree of national pride around the new system, with Chinese state media and commentators hailing their country’s transformation from the world’s supplier of rare earths to a leader maintaining order in the global supply of the critical elements.

在国内，新的稀土管控体系引发了一定程度的民族自豪感。中国官方媒体和评论员称赞本国已从全球稀土供应国转变为维护这一关键元素全球供应秩序的领导者。

“The U.S. is used to making moves and others following. Now that China is taking the initiative, they are a bit passive, uncomfortable, surprised and even shocked that China could be like this,” said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy committee of the China Association of Policy Sciences in Beijing.

“以前总是美国制定规则，现在中国也开始制定规则了，美国习惯了发号施令、他人服从。如今中国掌握了主动权，他们显得有些被动、不适、惊讶，甚至对中国会采取这样的行动感到震惊，”中国政策科学研究会经济政策委员会副主任徐洪才表示。

While China has deployed various forms of economic coercion before, including cutting off shipments of rare earths to Japan in 2010, experts say the latest measures are its most aggressive.

尽管中国此前曾采取过多种形式的经济胁迫措施，包括2010年切断对日本的稀土供应，但专家表示，此次最新措施是最激进的一次。

Part of China’s goal in applying the rule globally, not just toward the United States, may be to deter other countries from trying to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains, a strategy known as “de-risking.”

中国将该规则设置在全球范围内，而非仅针对美国实施，其部分目标可能是阻止其他国家试图减少对中国供应链的依赖——这一战略被称为“去风险”。

“They knew they were going to get some blowback, but they thought it was important to show strength and to show the flex here, to show anyone who might be thinking about aligning with the U.S., or pursuing their own de-risking agenda, that that’s not going to be cost-less for them,” said Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.”

“他们知道会面临一些反弹，但他们认为展示实力、展现影响力至关重要，以此向任何可能考虑与美国结盟或推行自身去风险议程的国家表明，这样做不会没有代价，”新美国安全中心高级研究员埃米莉·基尔克雷斯说。

It may be having the opposite effect.

但这可能会产生相反的效果。

周五，中国商务部长王文涛（左）出席新闻发布会。

The European Union trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, told Commerce Minister Wang Wentao of China on Tuesday that Beijing’s new rare earths regime “casts a shadow over our relationship.” Officials for the Group of 7 nations — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — have said they are considering a joint response.

欧盟贸易专员马罗斯·塞夫科维奇周二告诉中国商务部部长王文涛，中国新的稀土管控体系“给我们的关系蒙上了阴影”。由英国、加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和美国组成的七国集团官员表示，他们正在考虑联合回应。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the United States was considering putting restrictions on software exports to China in retaliation for the rare earths restrictions, a move he said would be done with other G7 nations.

财政部长斯科特·贝森特周三表示，美国正考虑限制向中国出口软件，以报复中国的稀土管控措施，并表示将与七国集团其他国家共同实施这一举措。

“This time around you see that it’s not just the U.S. complaining,” said Kyle Chan, an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation focusing on China’s industrial policy. “It was many countries that felt like this is not only destabilizing for them, but it’s seen almost as an aggressive act.”

“这一次你会发现，不仅仅是美国在抱怨，”兰德公司专注于中国产业政策的兼职研究员凯尔·陈（音）表示，“许多国家都认为，这不仅破坏了它们的稳定，还几乎被视为一种挑衅行为。”

He linked some of Mexico’s most powerful cartels with drugmaking chemicals from China, officials say, and smuggled cocaine and fentanyl across the U.S. border by land and air.

官员表示，墨西哥最强大的几大贩毒集团与中国制毒化学品通过他有了联系，他还通过陆路和空路将可卡因和芬太尼走私进入美国境内。

He ran stash houses packed with drugs throughout the United States, according to court documents, and laundered millions in cash using dozens of bank accounts.

根据法庭文件，他在全美各地经营多处塞满毒品的藏匿屋，并利用数十个银行账户洗钱成百上千万美元现金。

And he slipped from house arrest — through a hole in the wall, one senior Mexican official said — while under the watch of Mexico’s National Guard, setting off an international manhunt that ended with the announcement this week that he had been arrested in Cuba.

他还逃脱了软禁——一位墨西哥高级官员称，在受墨西哥国民警卫队监视期间，他从墙洞逃脱——由此引发了一场国际追捕，最终当局于本周宣布他在古巴被捕。

The U.S. and Mexican authorities have accused the man, a Chinese national named Zhi Dong Zhang, of being a major cartel broker with aliases including “Brother Wang,” and a leader of a criminal network linking China, the Americas and Europe. His detention in Cuba was announced late Wednesday by Mexico’s Security Ministry, which said that he had been detained along with two others, a Mexican and a Chinese national.

美墨两国当局指控这名中国籍男子张志东（音）是一名主要的贩毒集团中间人，也是连接中国、美洲和欧洲犯罪网络的头目，他有包括“王哥”在内的多个化名。墨西哥安全部周三晚间宣布他在古巴被捕，同时被捕的还有另外两人——分别为墨西哥籍和中国籍。

The ministry’s statement did not name Mr. Zhang but clearly described his case — from his arrest in October 2024, when Mexican police and military forces swept into one of Mexico City’s busiest neighborhoods, to his escape from house arrest this summer.

该部声明虽未提及张志东的姓名，但明确描述了他的案件——从2024年10月在墨西哥城最繁华街区之一被墨西哥警方和军队逮捕，到今年夏天逃脱软禁。

His escape, recalling embarrassing prison breaks of notorious criminals, raised host of difficult questions for Mexican officials about security lapses and potential corruption. It also came at a particularly sensitive moment in U.S.-Mexican relations, with the Trump administration putting intense pressure on Mexico to do more against drug cartels.

他的逃脱让人联想到那些臭名昭著的罪犯令人尴尬的越狱事件，给墨西哥官员带来了安全漏洞和潜在腐败的一系列难题。此事发生之际，正值美墨关系敏感时期，特朗普政府正对墨西哥施加巨大压力，要求其加大对贩毒集团的打击力度。

Mexico has responded by delivering dozens of suspects to the United States, cracking down on a powerful cartel and tightening cooperation with U.S. officials on crime.

墨西哥的回应是向美国引渡数十名嫌疑人，打击了一个强大的贩毒集团，并加强与美国官员在犯罪问题上的合作。

After his arrest last year, Mr. Zhang seemed bound for extradition to the United States, where he faces drug trafficking charges, with Mexican officials saying the extradition process was close to being finalized when he slipped out of house arrest. .

去年被捕后，张志东似乎即将被引渡至美国——他面临毒品贩运指控，墨西哥官员表示引渡程序即将完成时，他却从软禁中逃脱。

Mr. Zhang was initially held in a maximum-security prison. But a judge then placed him under house arrest — a decision that President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico called “outrageous,” after his escape.

张志东最初被关押在最高安全级别的监狱。但随后一名法官将其改为软禁——此决定在其逃脱后被墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·申鲍姆称为“令人发指”。

“How is it possible that even as the attorney general’s office appealed to the Judicial Council, stressing the importance of keeping this person in custody, the judge went ahead and granted his release?” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a news conference.

“即便检察院已向司法委员会上诉，强调必须继续羁押此人，法官怎么还能批准释放？”申鲍姆总统在新闻发布会上表示。

Mr. Zhang executed the escape itself by digging a hole through the wall of the house where he was being held, slipping into an adjoining residence, according to the senior Mexican official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive criminal case.

据这位要求匿名讨论敏感刑事案件的墨西哥高级官员透露，张志东是通过挖通软禁房屋的墙壁，潜入隔壁的住宅实施逃跑的。

Mr. Zhang fled first to Cuba, the official said, explaining that he is then thought to have tried to enter Russia with fake documents, but was detained and sent back to Cuba.

该官员称，张志东首先逃往了古巴，随后据信他试图持伪造证件进入俄罗斯，但被拘留并遣返回古巴。

The security ministry said that it learned he was in Cuba after international authorities were alerted about the manhunt and the Cuban and Mexican governments exchanged information.

安全部表示，在国际当局接到追捕警报后，古巴与墨西哥政府交换信息，才得知他在古巴。

Mexican officials say they are speaking with their Cuban counterparts about his possible deportation or extradition to Mexico.

墨西哥官员表示，正在与古巴方面商讨将其遣送或引渡回墨西哥的可能性。

American and Mexican officials have accused Mr. Zhang of being a major player in the drug trade, with links to Mexico’s largest cartels and operations that include drug production, smuggling and money laundering.

美墨官员指控张志东是毒品交易中的重要人物，与墨西哥最大贩毒集团有联系，其活动涵盖毒品生产、走私和洗钱。

Mr. Zhang was “an important manager of international money laundering,” Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s security minister, said not long after his first arrest. Mr. Zhang, he said, was “also responsible for making connections between cartels for transporting fentanyl from China to Central America, South America, Europe and the United States.”

墨西哥安全部长奥马尔·加西亚·哈夫赫不久前在张志东首次被捕后表示：“张志东是国际洗钱的重要管理者”，其所作所为还包括“连接各贩毒集团，将芬太尼从中国运往中美洲、南美洲、欧洲和美国”。

He also helped lead a drug organization that crisscrossed the United States — including in Georgia, California, Illinois and New York — according to a Drug Enforcement Administration agent’s affidavit filed in a U.S. federal court in Georgia this summer.

根据美国缉毒局特工今年夏天在佐治亚州联邦法院提交的宣誓证词，他还领导着一个横跨美国的贩毒组织，涉及佐治亚州、加利福尼亚州、伊利诺伊州和纽约州等地。

That filing accused him of leading a vast drug-trafficking and money-laundering network that moved cocaine and fentanyl from Mexico into several U.S. cities.

该文件指控他领导一个庞大的贩毒和洗钱网络，将可卡因和芬太尼从墨西哥运往美国多个城市。

That network, court documents said, had operated in the Atlanta and Los Angeles areas since at least 2016, smuggling in large quantities of cocaine and fentanyl for distribution across the United States and channeling the profits back to Mexico.

法庭文件显示，该网络至少自2016年起在亚特兰大和洛杉矶地区活动，大量走私可卡因和芬太尼在美国分销，并将利润汇回墨西哥。

Mr. Zhang coordinated the smuggling and oversaw the distribution, the court documents said, managing stash houses where cash proceeds were collected, counted, and deposited into U.S. bank accounts he controlled.

法庭文件称，张志东协调走私并监督分销，管理多个藏匿屋，负责收集、点算现金收益，并存入他控制的美国银行账户。

An investigation found about 150 companies and 170 bank accounts connected to Mr. Zhang’s organization, the court documents said, with about $20 million deposited in accounts it controlled in 2020 and 2021.

调查发现了与张志东组织有关的约150家公司和170个银行账户，2020年至2021年间，其控制的账户存入约2000万美元。

The Trump administration plans to file a trade investigation into China’s failure to uphold the terms of a trade deal signed in President Trump’s first term, according to two people familiar with the investigation.

据两名知情人士透露，特朗普政府计划针对中国未能履行其第一任期内签署的贸易协议条款发起贸易调查。

The move could result in more tariffs and risk increasing tensions between the United States and China. It would follow weeks of strained relations between the world’s two largest economies, and could be an effort by the United States to try to amass leverage before a meeting next week between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader.

此举可能导致美国对中国加征更多关税，并进一步加剧两国紧张关系。当前中美这两个全球最大经济体的关系已紧张数周，美方此举或意在下周特朗普与中国国家主席习近平会面之前积累谈判筹码。

The investigation, which could be announced as soon as Friday, would be filed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That section allows the administration to investigate whether the trade practices of other countries are harming the United States.

该调查最早可能于周五宣布，将由美国贸易代表办公室依据1974年《贸易法》第301条款发起。该条款允许美国政府调查其他国家的贸易行为是否对美国造成损害。

The inquiry could pave the way for more tariffs on Chinese imports, although no such decision has been made. Such investigations have historically taken months to complete. Data released in 2022 showed that China had fallen far short of commitments it made to buy American airplanes, soybeans, energy, services and other products.

尽管尚未作出最终决定，但此次调查可能为美国对中国进口商品加征更多关税铺平道路。历史上，此类调查通常需要数月时间才能完成。2022年发布的数据显示，中国在采购美国飞机、大豆、能源、服务及其他产品方面的表现远未达到承诺目标。

A spokeswoman for the Office of the United States Trade Representative declined to comment.

美国贸易代表办公室发言人拒绝就此置评。

The decision to initiate the case just days before high-level meetings between the United States and China underscored the economic stakes of a trade war that has consumed both countries and could be devastating for businesses on each side.

在中美高层会晤前数日启动该贸易调查凸显出这场席卷两国的贸易战所涉及的巨大经济利益——这场贸易战可能对双方企业造成毁灭性打击。

Since returning to the White House, Mr. Trump has added a 55 percent tariff on Chinese imports. Duties on some goods are much higher as a result of the tariffs the president imposed during his first term. The Chinese government has responded with tariffs on American products, including soybeans, resulting in a loss of business for U.S. farmers.

特朗普重返白宫后已对中国进口商品加征了55%的关税。加上其第一任期内实施的关税政策，部分商品的税率远高于此。中国政府则采取反制措施，对美国大豆等产品加征关税，导致美国农民遭受损失。

China has since raised the stakes, issuing an expansive system to control global trade in products that contain even small amounts of Chinese-produced rare earth minerals. Mr. Trump responded by threatening an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese products starting Nov. 1, as well as export restrictions on American software.

此后，中国进一步升级事态，推出了一套全面的管控体系，凡含有中国产稀土矿物的商品——哪怕只含微量——均在管制之列。特朗普随即回应称，将于11月1日起对中国产品额外加征100%的关税，并对美国软件实施出口限制。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are scheduled to talk in person next Thursday on the sidelines of an international meeting in South Korea, where, analysts believe, the leaders could try to stabilize the relationship. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, flew to Malaysia to hold talks with China’s vice premier, He Lifeng. Those talks were expected to set the table for the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.

特朗普与习近平定于下周四在韩国举行的一场国际会议期间举行面对面会谈，分析人士认为，两国领导人可能会借此机会努力稳定双边关系。周三，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔飞往马来西亚，与中国国务院副总理何立峰举行会谈。预计这些会谈将为特朗普与习近平的会面奠定基础。

Mr. Greer said on CNBC on Wednesday that he and Mr. Bessent would meet with the Chinese “to try to see if there’s room to move forward on some of these really difficult issues that have come up due to some new Chinese measures on rare earths.” He called those measures “incredibly aggressive” and “totally disproportional” to any actions that the United States or its allies had taken against China.

格里尔周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，他和贝森特将与中方会面，“试图探寻在某些极其棘手的问题上取得进展的可能性，这些问题源于中国针对稀土采取的新措施。”他称这些措施“极其激进”，与美国及其盟友针对中国采取的任何行动都“完全不对等”。

The trade case could also provide the Trump administration with a way to keep pressure on Beijing in the coming months if the Supreme Court strikes down other tariffs the president has issued on China. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments next month in a case against the tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed under a national emergency law, including many on Chinese imports. That court case would not affect any tariffs issued under Section 301.

此外，如果最高法院推翻特朗普政府此前对中国实施的其他关税，此次贸易调查也可为其在未来数月继续向北京施压提供途径。最高法院定于下月聆讯，审理一起针对特朗普依据国家紧急状态法实施的关税（包括许多针对中国进口商品的关税）的案件。该诉讼不会影响依据第301条款实施的任何关税。

It remains to be seen if the new trade case will prove to be a source of leverage against Beijing, or strain trade ties further. The Trump administration has repeatedly complained about China’s failure to comply with terms of a trade agreement signed in 2020, which followed months of negotiations and hefty tariffs imposed by the United States and China on each other’s products.

这起新的贸易调查最终将成为美国向北京施压的筹码，还是会进一步加剧贸易关系紧张，目前尚有待观察。特朗普政府一再抱怨中国未能遵守2020年签署的贸易协议条款——该协议是在双方数月谈判及相互加征高额关税后达成的。

In the deal, Chinese officials committed to buying an additional $200 billion worth of American goods and services, including natural gas, soybeans and airplanes. They also agreed to open markets to American companies and provide greater protection for American technology and trade secrets, among other changes.

根据该协议，中国官员承诺额外采购价值2000亿美元的美国商品和服务，包括天然气、大豆和飞机。中方还同意向美国企业开放市场，并加强对美国技术和商业秘密的保护等。

But after the deal was signed, the Covid-19 pandemic hit, and trade cratered. An analysis found that China had fallen far short of meeting its commitments. The Peterson Institute for International Economics calculated that, in the end, China had bought only 58 percent of the American exports it had committed to buy, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war.

但协议签署后，新冠疫情爆发，贸易活动大幅萎缩。一项分析发现，中国远未实现其承诺目标。彼得森国际经济研究所计算得出，中国最终仅采购了其承诺数量58%的美国出口商品，甚至未达到贸易战前的进口水平。

Michael Wessel, a former commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission, called China’s impact on American producers and workers “devastating.” He said that “promises made in the past have not been kept, and China needs to be held accountable.”

前美中经济与安全审查委员会委员迈克尔·韦塞尔称，中国对美国生产商和工人造成的影响“具有毁灭性”。他表示，“中国过去作出的承诺未能兑现，必须追究其责任。”

The Trump administration has blamed the Biden administration for failing to hold China to the terms of the agreement. But many analysts said the targets were unrealistic to begin with.

特朗普政府指责拜登政府未能迫使中国履行协议条款，但许多分析师表示，这些目标从一开始就不切实际。

“China was never on pace to meet its purchase commitments,” wrote Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute who did the analysis and later served an official under the Biden administration.

“中国从未按计划履行其采购承诺，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员查德·鲍恩写道。他负责了上述分析，后来在拜登政府任职。

Some analysts have questioned how far more levies can get the Trump administration, with so many tariff threats already on the table.

一些分析人士质疑，在已有多项关税威胁的情况下，特朗普政府进一步加征关税能取得多大成效。

Greta Peisch, a lawyer at Wiley Rein and a former U.S. trade official, said the U.S. trade case would “put the spotlight” on China’s recent pullback of purchases of soybeans and other agricultural products, which were a major part of the purchasing commitments in the first term.

威利莱恩律师事务所律师、前美国贸易官员格里塔·派施表示，美国的这起贸易案件将“聚焦”中国近期减少大豆及其他农产品采购的行为——这些是特朗普第一任期内采购承诺的主要内容。

But she pointed to a certain irony: The Chinese have said their falling soybean purchases were due to Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which prompted China to respond with levies of its own on U.S. soybeans and other products.

但她指出了一个颇具讽刺意味的事实：中方表示，其减少大豆采购是由于特朗普的关税政策，该政策促使中国对美国大豆及其他产品加征了反制关税。

“Because the pullback on purchases was a result of tariff escalations in part, it isn’t clear that a threat of higher tariffs is going to resolve that issue,” Ms. Peisch said.

“由于采购减少在一定程度上是关税升级的结果，因此尚不清楚提高关税的威胁能否解决这一问题，”派施说。