Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year.

铁路和其他基础设施的强劲投资抵消了疲弱的消费支出和贸易顺差缩小带来的影响，中国经济在今年前三个月继续保持增长。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.3 percent from the last three months of 2025. If that pace continues through the year, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of about 5.3 percent.

中国国家统计局周四公布，今年第一季度国内生产总值环比增长1.3%。如果这一增速全年保持，中国经济年度增长率将达到约5.3%。

In comparison with the same period last year, China’s gross domestic product was 5 percent larger in the first quarter. The figures came in slightly above economists’ forecasts for 4.8 percent growth.

与去年同期相比，今年第一季度中国GDP增长5%，略高于经济学家此前预测的4.8%。

One reason this year’s growth looked stronger was that the statistical agency said Thursday that the economy was weaker in the first half of last year than previously reported. That made this year’s results look better by comparison.

今年增长数据显得较强的一个原因是，统计局周四表示，去年上半年经济表现比之前公布的更弱，这使得今年数据对比之下显得更好。

A long, steep slide in apartment prices has eroded China’s household savings, prompting many people to cut spending. Retail sales rose just 2.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and only 1.7 percent in March, considerably weaker than what most economists had expected. Car sales fell 17 percent in the quarter after the government scaled back subsidies that had driven a boom last year.

长期大幅下跌的房价侵蚀了中国家庭的储蓄，导致许多人减少支出。第一季度社会消费品零售总额同比增长仅2.4%，3月份仅增长1.7%，远低于多数经济学家的预期。由于政府缩减了去年推动汽车销售火爆的补贴，汽车销量第一季度下降17%。

That sluggishness contrasts sharply with an 8.9 percent increase in infrastructure construction investments in the first quarter from a year ago.

这种低迷与基础设施建设投资形成鲜明对比，后者在第一季度同比增长8.9%。

The service sector has been struggling. Restaurants have closed across the country, and those still open echo with empty tables. Xiao Nan Guo, a nationwide chain offering Shanghainese cuisine at premium prices, exemplifies the downturn. After peaking at 139 outlets in 2015, it quietly shuttered most of its remaining locations in early February.

服务业处境艰难。全国各地多家餐厅关闭，仍营业的餐厅也常常空桌寥寥。高端上海菜全国连锁品牌“小南国”就是这一低迷的典型。该品牌曾在2015年达到139家门店的峰值，今年2月初已悄然关闭了大部分剩余门店。

伊朗战争导致的原材料成本上涨似乎正对中国经济发展构成压力。

Exports have propped up the Chinese economy through much of its housing slump since 2021. But this time they failed to offset broader weakness after a big surge in China’s largest category of imports, computer chips.

自2021年房地产低迷以来，出口在很大程度上支撑了中国经济。但这一次，在中国最大进口品类——计算机芯片大幅激增之后，出口未能抵消更广泛的经济疲弱。

Weak demand at home has pushed Chinese companies to seek growth abroad. Exports grew during the first three months of this year at their fastest quarterly clip in more than four years, led by electric car exports, up 78 percent, and a 50 percent rise in shipments of lithium batteries. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, said overseas sales were keeping factories busy across China.

国内需求疲软促使中国企业转向海外寻求增长。今年前三个月，出口增速创下四年多以来最快的季度增速，其中电动汽车出口增长78%，锂电池出货量增长50%。标普全球评级亚洲及太平洋首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示，海外销售让中国各地的工厂保持忙碌。

“It has been robust exports that have been a key driver of industrial production and G.D.P.,” he said.

“强劲的出口一直是工业生产和GDP增长的关键驱动力，”他说。

It is unclear if export strength will last. Tariffs and rising raw material costs from the war in Iran appeared to weigh on the Chinese economy in March. Chinese officials are expected to press for relief from U.S. tariffs at a summit next month in Beijing between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

目前尚不清楚出口强劲势头能否持续。关税和伊朗战争导致的原材料成本上升，似乎在3月份对中国经济造成了拖累。预计中国官员将在下个月于北京举行的特朗普与习近平峰会期间要求美国减轻关税。

由于塑料成本上升挤压制造商利润，中国的玩具和鞋类出口已出现下滑。​

China remains better positioned than other major economies to weather disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the war in Iran because of its large stockpiles of fossil fuels and dominant position in renewable energy. But China’s March trade data showed some unexpected shifts that sharply narrowed the country’s trade surplus.

由于拥有大量化石燃料储备，并在可再生能源领域占据主导地位，中国比其他主要经济体更有能力应对伊朗战争导致的石油和天然气供应中断。但中国3月份的贸易数据出现了一些意外变化，导致贸易顺差大幅收窄。

China’s exports of toys and footwear, once strong categories, fell as higher plastic costs from the war in the Middle East squeezed manufacturers. Chemical companies have continued raising prices, suggesting further pressure in the months ahead.

中国曾经强势的玩具和鞋类出口出现下降，因为中东战争推高了塑料成本，挤压了制造商利润。化工企业继续提高产品价格，表明未来几个月压力将进一步加大。

Exports of rare-earth metals also plummeted in March. Beijing severely restricted shipments to Japan, amid a dispute over relations with Taiwan.

3月份稀土金属出口也大幅下滑。此前北京因在台湾问题上引起的争端，严厉限制了对日本的稀土出货。

The most notable change has been a surge in semiconductor imports, as China rapidly builds data centers for artificial intelligence. Computer chip purchases jumped in January and February and hit a record high in March, up 54 percent from a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms.

最显著的变化是半导体进口激增，这是因为中国正在快速建设人工智能数据中心。今年1月和2月芯片采购量大幅增加，3月份更是创下纪录，按美元计算同比增长54%。

中国南京一处堆场内的硫磺。过去几年，出口一直支撑着中国经济。​

A weak renminbi, China’s currency, has made computer chip imports more expensive, adding to the drag on the economy. Beijing has kept its currency weak to boost exports, making Chinese goods more competitive abroad.

人民币疲软使得计算机芯片进口成本更高，进一步拖累经济。北京刻意保持人民币偏弱，以提振出口，增强中国商品在海外的竞争力。

But that same currency weakness raises import costs. The increasing semiconductor costs also reflect heightened global demand for the computer chips needed to power A.I. While the renminbi has strengthened slightly over the past year, it remains far weaker than what economists consider its true market value.

但同样的货币疲软也推高了进口成本。半导体成本上升还反映出全球对人工智能所需芯片的需求高涨。虽然人民币过去一年略有升值，但仍远低于经济学家认为的真实市场价值。

本月，中国盐城一个宁德时代电池工厂建设工程正在进行场地准备。​

Export sectors that rely heavily on steel are thriving in China these days. Domestic steel is cheap because of chronic oversupply and reluctance to close state-owned steel mills. With other countries’ tariffs limiting direct exports of steel, manufacturers are channeling the glut into finished goods like cars and ships, which face fewer trade barriers.

目前，高度依赖钢铁的出口行业在中国表现良好。由于长期产能过剩以及不愿关闭国有钢厂，国内钢铁价格低廉。在其他国家关税限制钢铁直接出口的情况下，制造商将过剩钢铁转化为汽车、船舶等成品出口，这些产品面临的贸易壁垒较少。

Li Rongchun, who owns a small business in Yancheng supplying acetylene and oxygen to nearby shipyards, said he had more orders than he could handle. “Right now, shipyards are building a lot of oil tankers and container ships, and many foreign clients are coming,” he said.

在盐城经营一家小企业、为附近船厂供应乙炔和氧气的李荣春（音）表示，他的订单多到忙不过来。“现在船厂正在大量建造油轮和集装箱船，很多外国客户都来了，”他说。

But in another nearby town, the picture is far more bleak. A resident who gave only his family name, Shao, said that property prices at complexes in his neighborhood had dropped by more than half over the past year and that even steep discounts were not enticing buyers.

但在附近另一个小镇，情况则要惨淡得多。一位只愿透露姓邵的居民表示，他所在小区的房价在过去一年下跌超过一半，即使大幅打折也吸引不到买家。

“There are just too many empty apartments — even at very low prices, no one wants to buy them,” he said.

“空置的房子实在太多了——即使价格很低，也没人愿意买，”他说。

Residential construction has slowed sharply over the past four years, but apartment sales have declined even faster, leaving a growing glut of unsold homes and making buyers wary of committing their savings to a purchase.

过去四年，住宅建设大幅放缓，但公寓销售下滑得更快，导致未售出住房库存不断增加，也让买家对拿出积蓄购房更加谨慎。

造船业等高度依赖钢铁的出口行业，在中国正蓬勃发展，部分原因在于国内钢铁价格低廉。

Mr. Kuijs said prices were likely to keep falling this year before bottoming out next year. But with residential construction already down so much, there isn’t much room for building activity to fall further. Any stabilization would ease a major drag on growth.

高路易表示，房价今年很可能继续下跌，明年才有望触底。由于住宅建设活动已经大幅减少，进一步下降的空间已经不大。任何企稳迹象都将缓解经济增长的一大拖累。

“That drag will remain this year,” Mr. Kuijs said, “but it probably won’t be as intense as it was in previous years.”

“今年这一拖累仍将存在，”高路易说，“但可能不会像前几年那么严重了。”

For years, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni enjoyed leverage as the right-wing leader who could bridge the gap between Europe and President Donald Trump.

多年来，意大利总理梅洛尼作为一位能够弥合欧洲与特朗普之间分歧的右翼领导人，享有一种政治筹码。

This week, though, she seems to have decided that Trump is a bridge too far.

但本周，她似乎认定，特朗普成了她跨不过去的坎。

After suffering major political setbacks because of her association with Trump, who is deeply unpopular in Italy and seen as the cause of rising gas prices, Meloni seized on an opportunity to extricate herself from a relationship that had grown domestically and internationally poisonous. After Trump launched a broadside Monday against Pope Leo XIV, Meloni rallied to the American pontiff’s defense, saying, “I find President Trump’s remarks about the Holy Father unacceptable.”

由于与特朗普的关系让她在政治上遭遇重大挫折——特朗普在意大利极不受欢迎，并被视为油价上涨的罪魁祸首——梅洛尼抓住机会，试图摆脱这段在国内外都日益“有毒”的关系。周一，在特朗普猛烈抨击教宗良十四世后，梅洛尼迅速为这位美籍教宗辩护，称“我认为特朗普总统对教宗的言论是不可接受的”。

Trump, clearly jilted, lashed out at Meloni, saying in an interview with an Italian newspaper Tuesday that he hadn’t talked to her “in a long time,” was vexed by her lack of participation in the war in Iran and was “shocked by her,” adding, “I thought she was brave, but I was wrong.” He responded to her “unacceptable” criticism by snapping, “She’s the one who’s unacceptable.” On Wednesday, he added in a television interview that with Italy, “we do not have the same relationship.”

特朗普显然觉得遭到了抛弃，于是对梅洛尼发起攻击。他在周二接受一家意大利报纸采访时说，自己已经“很久”没和她说过话了，对她未参与伊朗战争感到恼火，并且“对她感到震惊”，还说：“我原以为她很勇敢，但我错了。”针对梅洛尼“不可接受”的批评，他厉声回击道：“她才是不可接受的。”周三，他在一次电视采访中补充说，与意大利“我们不再有以前那种关系了”。

德黑兰一块表现霍尔木兹海峡形势的广告牌，摄于本周。伊朗战争加剧了特朗普与梅洛尼之间的紧张关系。

The spat seemed to be the end of, or at least a low point for, perhaps Trump’s most special relationship in Europe.

这场口水战似乎意味着特朗普在欧洲或许最特殊的一段关系走到了尽头，或者至少是跌入了低谷。

It is also another remarkable moment in the career of Meloni, who has over decades shifted from teenage neofascist activist to hard-right party leader — before finally emerging as a pragmatic conservative and the first female prime minister of Italy.

这也是梅洛尼政治生涯中又一个引人注目的时刻：数十年来，她从一名青少年新法西斯主义活动人士，转变为强硬右翼政党领导人，最终成为一位务实的保守派，并当选为意大利首位女总理。

When Trump returned to power last year, many in the European establishment feared that he would pull her to the far-right extremes. Instead, analysts suggest, Trump may have actually pushed her deeper into the Europe mainstream.

去年特朗普重新掌权时，欧洲建制派中的许多人都担心他会把梅洛尼拉到极右翼的极端立场上去。然而，分析人士认为，特朗普实际上可能反而把她推向了欧洲主流。

“In the relationship with Trump, she originally thought he could be an asset, and maybe he was, because she could appear as the person that could mediate between the rest of Europe and Trump,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Florence. “But gradually it has become a liability. I think she took advantage of what he said about the pope to make a firm statement and take distance. She couldn’t do otherwise.”

佛罗伦萨大学政治学荣休教授罗伯托·达利蒙特表示：“在与特朗普的关系中，她最初认为他可以成为一种资产，而且某种程度上确实如此，因为她可以把自己塑造成一个在欧洲其他国家与特朗普之间的调解者。但这种关系逐渐变成了一种负担。我认为她利用了他对教宗的言论，借机明确表态并拉开距离。她别无选择。”

At first, Meloni’s connection to Trump had the makings of a beautiful friendship.

最初，梅洛尼与特朗普的关系似乎颇有成为一段佳话的潜力。

2018年，梅洛尼邀请特朗普的前首席顾问班农作为她政治会议的贵宾。

In 2018, when she was still a marginal figure looking for oxygen in Italy’s crowded populist space, Meloni invited Trump’s former top adviser, Steve Bannon, to be the guest of honor at her political conference, named after a hero in “The NeverEnding Story.” The next year, she proudly called herself “the only Italian” invited to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. She spoke on the same day as Trump, and from her seat in the audience gushed about his remarks on social media even as he delivered them.

2018年，当她仍是意大利拥挤的民粹主义政治空间中一个边缘人物、急需关注时，梅洛尼邀请特朗普的前首席顾问史蒂夫·班农作为贵宾，出席她以《大魔域》中的一个英雄式人物命名的政治会议。她自豪地称自己是受邀在华盛顿保守派政治行动会议上发言的“唯一意大利人”。她与特朗普同一天发言，并且就在他演讲的同时，在台下通过社交媒体对他的讲话大加赞赏。

In 2022, she said in an interview with The New York Times: “Trump did some very good things when he was president. For example, in foreign policy, we had no problems. There were no wars.”

2022年，她在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示：“特朗普在担任总统期间做了一些非常好的事情。比如在外交政策方面，我们没有遇到问题，没有战争。”

Years later, when they were both at the height of their power, they seemed to be hitting it off.

数年后，当两人都处于权力巅峰时，他们看上去很合得来。

“You don’t mind being called beautiful, right?” Trump said to Meloni at a summit in Egypt last October. “You are.”

去年10月在埃及举行的一次峰会上，特朗普对梅洛尼说：“你不介意被称为美女吧？你就是。”

Despite the public displays of affection, throughout his second term, Trump has increasingly put pressure on Meloni, along with other European allies, to increase Italy’s military spending and to accept unfavorable trade terms.

尽管有这些公开的热络互动，但在特朗普的第二任期内，他不断向梅洛尼以及其他欧洲盟友施压，要求意大利增加军费开支，并接受对其不利的贸易条件。

She showed signs of resistance. Last April, as Trump threatened to raise tariffs, she said, “I think the choice of the United States is a wrong choice,” even as she cautioned against retaliatory tariffs from Europe.

梅洛尼也表现出一些反抗迹象。去年4月，在特朗普威胁提高关税之际，她说，“我认为美国的选择是错误的”，但同时也提醒欧洲不要采取报复性关税。

Then things started getting tense. In January, as Trump increasingly began to float the idea of taking Greenland, she said, “I don’t believe in the idea of the U.S. launching military action on Greenland, which I would not agree with.” Days later, when Trump walked back his threats, she spoke as someone who understood him, saying she was “not surprised, to be honest.”

随后，事情开始变得紧张起来。今年1月，当特朗普不断提出接管格陵兰岛的想法时，她说：“我不相信美国会对格陵兰岛发动军事行动，我也不会同意这么做。”几天后，当特朗普收回这些威胁时，她以一种了解他的人的口气说：“说实话，我并不感到意外。”

But when Trump decided to attack Iran, he did not give Meloni a heads-up. To her humiliation, her defense minister was vacationing in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, at the time and had to be evacuated via military jet.

但当特朗普决定对伊朗发动攻击时，并未提前告知梅洛尼。令她难堪的是，她的国防部长当时正在迪拜度假，不得不乘坐军用飞机撤离。

The war also led to a spike in gas and electricity prices in Italy. Meloni, a populist with a sharp sense of pocketbook issues, understood the political danger, especially as Italians prepared to vote in a referendum on a crucial judicial change that she supported.

这场战争还导致意大利的汽油和电价飙升。作为一名对民生问题高度敏感的民粹主义政治人物，梅洛尼清楚其中的政治风险，尤其是在意大利即将就她所支持的一项关键司法改革举行全民公投之际。

As poll after poll showed that Italy did not support the war and did not like Trump, Meloni started speaking out.

随着一项又一项民调显示意大利民众既不支持这场战争，也不喜欢特朗普，梅洛尼开始公开表态。

“I am concerned, obviously, because it would be stupid to believe that what happens even far from our borders does not involve us,” she said March 2, adding, “The United States and Israel decided to attack without the involvement of their European partners.”

“我当然感到担忧，因为如果认为发生在远离我们国界的事情与我们无关，那就太愚蠢了，”她在3月2日表示，还说：“美国和以色列是在没有欧洲伙伴参与的情况下决定发动攻击的。”

Days later, she made it clear that “we are not at war and we do not want to go to war.” She dispatched Guido Crosetto, the defense minister who had been marooned in Dubai, to be even more forceful, saying the attack by the United States and Israel “certainly happened outside the rules of international law.” She then added in a speech to parliament that because the United States had problems communicating, she couldn’t necessarily endorse the U.S. assessment that Iranian intransigence had thwarted negotiations over a deal.

几天后，她明确表示“我们没有处于战争状态，也不希望陷入战争”。她派出一度被困在迪拜的国防部长圭多·克罗塞托作出更为强硬的表态，称美国和以色列的攻击“显然发生在国际法规则之外”。随后，她在议会演讲中补充说，由于美方在沟通上存在问题，她未必认可美方关于伊朗的顽固态度阻碍了谈判达成协议的说法。

For all her effort to distance herself from Trump’s war, she badly lost the referendum on the judiciary anyway, after the vote became perceived as a plebiscite on her own popularity. In an effort to settle scores with those she believed had done her wrong, she fired a minister and aides whom she held responsible for the defeat.

尽管她竭力与特朗普的战争保持距离，但在司法公投中仍然遭遇惨败——这场投票被视为对其个人支持度的一次公投。为清算她认为导致失败的责任人，她解雇了一名部长及数名助手。

But analysts said that a rupture with Trump was the breakup that would matter most to Italian voters. And Trump’s attack on the pope gave her an opening.

但分析人士表示，与特朗普的决裂才是意大利选民最为看重的。而特朗普对教宗的攻击给了她一个机会。

Now, experts say, Meloni will have to decide if she wants to go it alone, or seek closer alliances in the European establishment that she rose to power bashing.

如今，专家表示，梅洛尼必须决定是选择单打独斗，还是与她上台时曾猛烈抨击的欧洲建制派寻求更紧密的联盟。

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, reflecting investors’ optimism that a peace deal would be reached before the war in Iran could inflict significant damage on corporate America.

标普500指数周三创下新的历史收盘纪录，这反映出投资者乐观认为，在伊朗战争对美国企业造成重大损害之前，和平协议有望达成。

The benchmark stock index, which is widely watched across the world as a barometer of the health of the U.S. market, rose about 0.8 percent to close above 7,000 and higher than its previous peak, reached in January. The index had already erased its losses during the war in Iran and now sits 2 percent higher than it was before the fighting began in late February.

这项全球广泛关注的基准股指，作为美国市场健康状况的晴雨表，上涨约0.8%，收盘突破7000点，超过今年1月创下的前高。该指数已完全抹去伊朗战争期间的全部跌幅，目前比2月底战争爆发前的水平高出约2%。

Even as a spike in oil prices has led to a gloomier economic outlook, investors have been embracing signals in recent days that the United States and Iran could restart talks that ended last weekend in Pakistan without a deal but with comments from President Trump that he believed the war was nearing an end.

尽管油价飙升导致经济前景更加黯淡，但投资者最近几天仍积极回应相关信号：美国和伊朗可能重启谈判。上周末在巴基斯坦结束的谈判虽未达成协议，但特朗普总统表示，他相信战争即将结束。

The mere posture toward peace has helped to placate the stock market. Since the cease-fire took hold last week, investors have noted a shift in tone by the Trump administration that reflects a desire to end the conflict soon.

仅仅转向和平的姿态就已帮助安抚了股市。自上周停火生效以来，投资者注意到特朗普政府的语气发生转变，显示出希望尽快结束冲突的意愿。

“The market is trading assuming we have seen the worst of the conflict,” said Stefano Pascale, an equity analyst at Barclays.

“市场的交易是在假设我们已经看到了冲突最糟糕的阶段，”巴克莱银行股票分析师斯特凡诺·帕斯卡莱表示。

The S&P 500 is now on course for its third straight week of gains, the kind of winning streak not seen since October. The index has risen about 10 percent since March 30 — the nadir of the recent sell-off.

标普500指数目前有望连续第三周上涨，这是自去年10月以来未见的连胜纪录。自3月30日（近期抛售低点）以来，该指数已累计上涨约10%。

Still, some market watchers have been perplexed by the recent rally, which has taken place as the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway on Iran’s southern coast that serves as a crucial shipping lane for the world’s oil supply, has remained throttled. Even if a formal peace deal is achieved between the United States and Iran, it could take a long time to get ships moving again and repair damage to ports and other oil facilities. High oil and gas prices have been feeding into rising U.S. inflation and tumbling consumer confidence.

然而，一些市场观察人士对近期的反弹感到困惑，因为伊朗南部海岸的霍尔木兹海峡——这条对全球石油供应至关重要的狭窄航道——仍处于受阻状态。即使美国和伊朗达成正式和平协议，船舶恢复通航以及修复港口和其他石油设施也可能需要很长时间。高企的油气价格已推高美国通胀，并导致消费者信心下滑。

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession. Even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done, the I.M.F. warned as it cut its forecasts for economic growth.

国际货币基金组织周二表示，石油市场中断可能拖累经济增长、加剧通胀，并增加全球衰退的风险。IMF警告称，即使战争短暂，全球经济也已遭受损害，并因此下调了经济增长预测。

“What is a little strange is that there is a tendency by some to assume that it’s business as usual,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday when asked about the seeming exuberance of markets at an event held by Bloomberg in Washington.

“有点奇怪的是，有些人倾向于假设一切照旧，”欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周二在华盛顿的一场彭博社主办活动上被问及市场看似火热的表现时说道。

The longer oil markets are disrupted from the conflict, the greater the risk to the global economy and to financial markets. But in a further sign that equity investors already consider the end of the war to be in sight, stocks have rallied in recent weeks even on days when oil prices have risen.

石油市场因冲突而中断的时间越长，对全球经济和金融市场的风险就越大。但股市投资者似乎已认为战争结束在即——即使在油价上涨的日子，股市最近几周仍出现反弹，这进一步印证了这一点。

A widely watched monthly fund manager survey by Bank of America, conducted over the week through April 9, showed the most bearish outlook among investment managers since June of last year. Expectations for economic growth plummeted in the latest survey and the outlook for inflation shot higher.

美国银行针对基金经理的一项广受关注的月度调查（截至4月9日当周）显示，投资经理的展望是去年6月以来最悲观的。最新调查中，对经济增长的预期大幅下滑，而对通胀的预期则急剧上升。

But importantly, few responded that they thought this would lead to a recession. And without a recession, investors have been able to return to focusing on the otherwise strong backdrop provided by corporate earnings that kicked off this week.

但重要的是，很少有人认为这会导致衰退。而且只要没有衰退，投资者就能重新将注意力转向本周开始公布的企业财报所展现的强劲基本面。

Analysts expect a sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with some anticipating the best earnings season in roughly five years. And that has provided solid support for valuations to shrug off March’s market struggles.

分析师预计，这将是企业盈利连续第六个季度实现双位数增长，有些人预计这将成为大约五年来最好的财报季。这为估值提供了坚实支撑，使其能够摆脱3月份的市场动荡。

“As corporate earnings are the biggest driver of stock returns, this level of steadfast earnings growth is an incredibly positive sign given that the market has been hammered in the first quarter by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent oil prices skyrocketing to some of their highest levels in decades,” said Hardika Singh, a strategist at Fundstrat.

“由于企业盈利是股市回报的最大驱动力，在第一季度市场因霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭而遭受重创、油价飙升至几十年高位的情况下，这种稳健的盈利增长是一个极其积极的信号，”Fundstrat策略师哈尔迪卡·辛格表示。

JPMorgan Chase, the banking bellwether, on Tuesday reported a $17 billion profit for the first three months of the year, considerably more than analysts expected. The bank slightly lowered its forecast for profits in the remainder of the year, but still expects to earn more than $100 billion. Its executives expressed worry about energy costs weighing on consumers but stressed that the labor market remained healthy. Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America also reported strong profits this week.

银行业领军企业摩根大通周二公布，今年前三个月实现170亿美元利润，大幅超出分析师预期。该银行略微下调了今年剩余时间的盈利预测，但仍预计全年盈利超过1000亿美元。高管们对能源成本拖累消费者表示担忧，但强调劳动力市场依然健康。高盛、花旗和美国银行本周也均公布了出色的利润数据。

Bolstering the signal sent by the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies — typically seen as more susceptible to economic shocks — has also rallied sharply. The index has risen over 12 percent since March 30 and began trading on Wednesday just 0.5 percent away from its January record.

除了标普500指数发出的信号，小型公司罗素2000指数——通常被视为更易受经济冲击影响——也出现大幅反弹。自3月30日以来，该指数已上涨超过12%，周三开盘时距离1月纪录高点仅差0.5%。

Big technology companies have led the S&P 500 higher but the recovery has been broader than just the darlings of the artificial intelligence boom. More than 80 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 are now higher than they were on March 30.

大型科技公司引领标普500指数走高，但此次反弹的范围已超出人工智能热潮中的龙头股。目前标普500指数中超过80%的公司股价已高于3月30日的水平。

However, just as the stock sell-off had been somewhat contained by an awareness that this administration could change its mind quickly, many analysts are urging a similar caution as the market now moves higher.

然而，正如此前的股市抛售在一定程度上因投资者意识到本届政府可能迅速改变主意而得到控制一样，许多分析师现在敦促市场在走高时保持类似谨慎。

U.S. stocks are still facing “two-tailed risks,” analysts at Bank of America noted.

美国银行分析师指出，美股仍面临“双尾风险”。

The rise in energy stocks, which had been boosted by the rise in oil prices stemming from the war, has now faded. Shares of consumer staples like General Mills or Dollar General remain significantly lower than before the war began, with both companies down more than 20 percent since the end of February. Roughly two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 remain lower than they were when the war began.

此前因战争导致油价上涨而走强的能源股涨幅现已消退。像通用磨坊或达乐这样的消费必需品公司股价仍远低于战争爆发前的水平，自2月底以来均下跌超过20%。标普500指数中约有三分之二的公司股价仍低于战争开始时的水平。

“The obvious risk is that we have not seen the worst of the conflict,” Mr. Pascale said.

“显而易见的风险是，我们尚未看到冲突最糟糕的阶段，”帕斯卡莱表示。

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil rose to power by fighting for the rights of workers. Now, in an awkward twist, his government is being accused of stifling concerns about labor abuses by a major Chinese carmaker.

巴西总统卢拉以捍卫工人权益起家。如今却出现了一个颇为尴尬的反转：他的政府被指控压制对一家中国大型汽车制造商侵犯劳工权益的担忧。

The crisis comes after Mr. Lula’s government dismissed a top labor ministry official just days after he added the Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD to a national registry of employers accused of subjecting workers to conditions similar to slavery.

这场危机发生在卢拉政府解雇一名劳工部高级官员之后。就在几天前，这名官员将中国电动汽车巨头比亚迪列入了一个全国性的不良雇主名单，该名单专门记录被指控让工人在类似奴役条件下工作的企业。

The episode has placed the government of Mr. Lula, a former union leader who co-founded the leftist Workers’ Party, in an uncomfortable position. And it has highlighted the growing prominence of Chinese automakers in Brazil, where they have made an aggressive push by pouring billions into building plants and expanding EV sales.

这一事件让卢拉政府陷入尴尬境地。卢拉曾是工会领袖，也是左翼政党工人党的共同创始人。这也凸显了中国汽车制造商在巴西日益增长的影响力——它们通过投入数十亿美元建设工厂、扩大电动车销售，在巴西大举扩张。

Brazil’s labor minister, Luiz Marinho, said the dismissal of his top labor inspection official, Luiz Felipe Brandão de Mello, was a routine personnel change but declined to say whether it was related to BYD.

巴西劳工部长路易斯·马里尼奥表示，解雇劳工监察负责人路易斯·费利佩·布兰多·德梅洛只是一次常规人事调整，但拒绝说明此举是否与比亚迪有关。

“Changes are natural, they happen,” Mr. Marinho told The New York Times in an interview. “It’s my responsibility as minister to assemble a team.”

“人事调整是很正常的事情，总会发生，”马里尼奥在接受《纽约时报》采访时说。“组建团队是我作为部长的责任。”

But to labor groups and government watchdogs, the timing of Mr. Mello’s departure raised alarms.

但对于劳工团体和政府监督机构来说，德梅洛在这个节骨眼上离职令人警觉。

Just before he was let go, Mr. Mello had signed off on BYD’s inclusion on a “dirty list” of labor offenders after an investigation concluded the company had violated human rights at a construction site in northeastern Brazil. There, Chinese employees building one of its plants were found living in squalid conditions and working over 10 hours per day, with almost no days off.

就在被解职前不久，德梅洛刚批准将比亚迪列入“黑名单”，此前一项调查得出结论，该公司在巴西东北部的一处建筑工地存在侵犯人权的行为。在那里，为比亚迪建厂的中国工人被发现生活条件恶劣，每天工作超过10小时，几乎没有休息日。

Workers were lured into the jobs with promises of higher salaries, the investigation found, and were not free to end their contracts or leave the site. In a crackdown in late 2024, the Brazilian authorities ultimately removed more than 160 workers from what they said were slave-like conditions, which BYD has blamed on a subcontractor.

调查发现，工人们被高薪承诺引诱到这些工作岗位，但他们实际上无法自由解除合同或离开工地。在2024年底的一次执法行动中，巴西当局最终将160多名工人从其所称的类似奴役的条件下解救出来。比亚迪则将责任归咎于一家分包商。

卡马萨里的比亚迪工厂建设工地的一名工人，摄于去年。

Under Brazilian law, companies found to engage in such labor practices must be added to the registry within several months. Ahead of a deadline in early April, Mr. Mello added BYD to the list.

根据巴西法律，被认定存在此类用工行为的企业必须在数月内被列入名单。在4月初的最后期限到来之前，德梅洛将比亚迪加到了名单上。

On April 8, at the request of the Chinese automaker, a labor court agreed to suspend the decision pending further judicial review of whether BYD can be held responsible for its contractors. Then, on Monday, Brazil announced Mr. Mello’s dismissal in the official government gazette.

4月8日，应这家中国汽车制造商的要求，一家劳工法院同意暂停该决定，等待进一步司法审查，以确定比亚迪是否应对其承包商的行为承担责任。随后，巴西于周一在政府公报上宣布了德梅洛解职的消息。

The move made headlines, causing an outcry from labor groups. Brazil’s national association of labor inspectors accused the minister of political meddling and called Mr. Mello’s firing “a serious sign of institutional retaliation.”

此事登上了新闻头条，引发劳工团体的强烈抗议。巴西全国劳工监察员协会指责劳工部长存在政治干预行为，并称解雇德梅洛是“严重的体制报复信号”。

“He was obeying the law and fulfilling his duty,” said Rodrigo Carvalho, the association’s national coordinator. “This turns a technical public policy decision into a political one.”

“他是在依法行事、履行自己的职责，”该协会全国协调员罗德里戈·卡瓦略表示，“这把一个技术性的公共政策决定变成了政治决定。”

Mr. Marinho dismissed accusations of political interference, insisting that he does not seek to aid any company and works to ensure technical decisions made by his team are sound.

劳工部长马里尼奥否认了政治干预的指控，坚称自己并未试图帮助任何公司，而是致力于确保其团队所作出的技术性决定是合理的。

Mr. Mello did not respond to a request for comment.

德梅洛没有回应置评请求。

BYD also did not respond to a request for comment. In the past, it has shifted blame for conditions at the Brazil site to a subcontractor in charge of the construction, saying it no longer does business with the company.

比亚迪也未回应置评请求。此前，该公司曾将巴西工地的相关问题归咎于负责施工的分包商，并表示已终止了与对方的合作。

This week, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry sidestepped questions about BYD’s human rights record in Brazil, saying that China “attaches great importance to protecting the lawful rights and interests of workers” and is working with Brazil on the issue.

本周，中国外交部发言人回避了有关比亚迪在巴西违反人权的提问，仅表示中国“高度重视保障劳动者合法权益”，并正在与巴西就该问题开展合作。

Appearing on Brazil’s list of slavery offenders can carry serious consequences for companies, damaging their reputation, barring them from certain bank loans and making them less appealing to investors.

被列入巴西的奴役劳动名单会给企业带来严重后果，损害其声誉，使其无法获得某些银行贷款，并降低对投资者的吸引力。

圣保罗的一家比亚迪经销店。巴西是中国电动汽车的巨大市场。

Brazil, a car-loving country of 213 million, is BYD’s biggest market outside China. In recent years, Chinese electric vehicles have surged in popularity in Brazil, Latin America’s largest nation, now representing about 80 percent of the E.V. market.

巴西是一个有2.13亿人口、热爱汽车的国家，是比亚迪在中国以外最大的市场。近年来，中国电动汽车在拉丁美洲最大国家巴西迅速走红，目前约占其电动汽车市场80%的份额。

The firestorm set off by Mr. Mello’s firing adds to the scrutiny surrounding Mr. Marinho, who has been an ally of Mr. Lula since their days as union organizers on the outskirts of São Paulo.

围绕德梅洛解职所引发的风波也加剧了外界对劳工部长马里尼奥的审视。自上世纪在圣保罗郊区一起从事工会组织工作时起，马里尼奥就是卢拉的盟友。

Last year, Mr. Marinho stepped in to prevent several companies from being added to the slavery registry, including a division of the Brazilian meatpacking giant JBS. The legality of his actions is being challenged in Brazil’s Supreme Court.

去年，马里尼奥曾出面阻止多家公司被列入奴役劳动名单，其中包括巴西肉类加工巨头JBS的一个部门。他这一行为的合法性目前正在巴西最高法院受到质疑。

With just months to go before a presidential election, the most recent episode threatens to tarnish Mr. Lula’s image as a defender of workers, an issue that for decades has formed the backbone of his political reputation.

在距离总统选举仅剩数月之际，最近的这一事件有可能损害卢拉作为工人捍卫者的形象——这一形象数十年来一直是其政治声望的核心支柱。

A former metalworker with a fifth-grade education, Mr. Lula rose to prominence as a union leader in the 1970s and 1980s, leading tens of thousands of workers in a series of strikes defying the military dictatorship at the time.

卢拉曾是一名仅受过小学五年级教育的金属工人，20世纪70年代至80年代，他作为工会领袖崭露头角，领导数万名工人发起一系列罢工，反抗当时的军事独裁统治。

Inspired by his work as a union organizer, Mr. Lula co-founded the Workers’ Party in 1980. Promising to represent workers’ interests, he was elected to the national legislature in 1986 and, propelled by populist support, rose to the presidency in 2003 for the first time.

受工会组织经历的启发，卢拉于1980年与他人一起创立了工人党，承诺代表工人利益。他在1986年当选为国会议员，并在民粹主义支持的推动下，于2003年首次当选总统。

Yet his party has lost much of its shine in recent decades, and Mr. Lula now faces the prospects of a tough race as he seeks a fourth term as president in an unpredictable national election this October.

然而，近年来，工人党失去了往昔的光环。在今年10月充满不确定性的全国大选中，卢拉寻求第四个总统任期，如今他面临着一场艰苦的竞选。

For much of the last two decades, China has maintained a delicate balance in its military relationship with Iran, offering often indirect assistance instead of arms sales.

过去二十年的大部分时间里，中国在与伊朗的军事关系中一直维持着一种微妙的平衡，通常提供间接援助，而不是直接出售武器。

That approach is now drawing renewed attention after U.S. officials said intelligence agencies were assessing whether China may have shipped shoulder-fired missiles to Iran in recent weeks. President Trump has said he would impose an additional 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods if the assessment proves accurate. China has denied the claim, calling it “pure fabrication” and has vowed to “resolutely retaliate” if the Trump administration goes through with tariffs.

这种做法如今再次受到关注，因为美国官员表示，情报机构正在评估中国最近几周是否向伊朗输送了肩扛式导弹。特朗普总统表示，如果评估结果属实，他将对中国商品额外征收50%的关税。中国否认这一指控，称其为“纯属捏造”，并誓言如果特朗普政府实施关税将“坚决反制”。

The American officials said the information obtained by U.S. intelligence agencies was not definitive. But if proven true, it would be a significant tactical change in the way Beijing supports its closest strategic partner in the Middle East.

美国官员称，美国情报机构获得的信息并非确凿无疑。而如果得到证实，这将标志着北京支持其中东最亲密战略伙伴的方式发生重大的战术转变。

Chinese arms sales to Iran exploded in the 1980s and have all but vanished in the last decade to comply with a United Nations embargo and U.S. sanctions. Chinese support for Iran in recent years has instead come in the form of components that could be used in both civilian technologies as well as missiles and drones.

中国对伊朗的武器销售在1980年代曾急剧增长，但为遵守联合国武器禁运和美国制裁在过去十年几乎完全消失。近些年来，中国对伊朗的支持转为提供可用于民用技术以及导弹和无人机的零部件。

China has a major stake in the crisis in Iran. About a third of its total crude oil imports come from the Persian Gulf.

中国在伊朗危机中有着重大利益。其原油进口总量约有三分之一来自波斯湾。

Here is how China’s military support for Iran has evolved over the years:

以下是中国对伊朗军事支持多年来演变的情况：

The 1980s: The Boom Years

1980年代：繁荣期

The outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 coincided with major market reforms in China when the leader at the time, Deng Xiaoping, ordered state-owned companies to wean themselves off government support and instead seek commercial profit.

1980年两伊战争爆发时正值中国进行重大市场改革。当时的领导人邓小平要求国有企业摆脱政府扶持，转而寻求商业利润。

Chinese state-run defense companies were suddenly empowered to export their wares. That resulted in a deluge of Chinese missiles, fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles and assault rifles being sold to Iran starting in 1982 and peaking in 1987, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

中国国有国防企业突然获得出口权。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据，从1982年开始，大量中国导弹、战斗机、坦克、装甲车和突击步枪被出售给伊朗，并于1987年达到峰值。

At the same time, China sold even more arms to Iraq, resulting in a situation in which the two warring sides clashed with each other using the same Chinese weapons.

与此同时，中国向伊拉克出售了更多武器，导致交战双方在冲突中使用同样的中国武器。

The Reagan administration opposed China’s arms sales to Iran, particularly Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles. Tehran used the missiles in attacks in Kuwaiti waters in 1987 that struck an American-owned tanker and an American-registered tanker.

里根政府反对中国向伊朗出售武器，尤其是“蚕”式反舰巡航导弹。1987年，德黑兰使用这些导弹在科威特水域发动袭击，击中一艘美国拥有的油轮和一艘悬挂美国旗帜的油轮。

1987年，一艘名为“海岛城号”的美国注册油轮在科威特水域被伊朗导弹击中后的情景。

The United States responded by curbing exports of some high-technology products to China. China denied selling arms directly to Iran, but said it would do more to prevent its military exports from reaching Iran through intermediaries.

美国随即限制向中国出口部分高技术产品。中国否认直接向伊朗出售武器，但表示将采取更多措施，防止其军品出口通过中间商流向伊朗。

The 1990s: Technology Transfers

1990年代：技术转让

Following the war, Iran set out to develop its own military-industrial base with the help of China. One of its key products was the Noor anti-ship cruise missile, which had been reverse-engineered through purchases of Chinese C-802 cruise missiles.

战争结束后，伊朗在中国帮助下着手发展自己的军事工业基础。其中一项关键产品是“努尔”反舰巡航导弹，该导弹是通过采购中国C-802巡航导弹进行逆向工程得到的。

“China played a major role in supporting Iran’s military modernization for decades, especially in developing Iran’s missile capabilities,” said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“中国几十年来在支持伊朗军事现代化方面发挥了重要作用，尤其是在发展伊朗导弹能力方面，”战略与国际研究中心中国力量项目研究员布赖恩·哈特表示。

伊朗官方媒体发布了一张照片，称这是2010年一次演习中发射的伊朗制造的“努尔”导弹。

Iran also received help from China in building missile-production facilities and even in constructing a missile test range east of Tehran, wrote Bates Gill, a longtime China expert, in the Middle East Review of International Affairs.

资深中国问题专家季北慈(Bates Gill)在《中东国际事务评论》上称，伊朗还在中国的帮助下建造了导弹生产设施，甚至在德黑兰以东建设了一个导弹试验场。

Under U.S. pressure to curtail its sale of finished weapons, particularly missiles, to Iran, China began increasing exports of machine tools and components that could be used for both military and civilian purposes.

在美国压力下减少向伊朗出售成品武器（尤其是导弹）后，中国开始增加出口机床和可用于军民两用的零部件。

The 2000s to the Present: Dual-Use Technologies

2000年代至今：军民两用技术

In 2006, the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. China voted in favor of the resolution and largely pivoted away from new, formal arms contracts with Tehran.

2006年，联合国对伊朗核计划和弹道导弹计划实施制裁。中国投票赞成该决议，并基本放弃了与德黑兰签订新的正式武器合同。

The shift was as much about regional strategy as it was about international law. Starting in the mid-2010s, China began deepening its strategic relationships with Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, traditional rivals of Iran, as well as Qatar.

这一转变既与国际法有关，也与地区战略考量有关。从2010年代中期开始，中国开始深化与海湾国家的战略关系，其中包括伊朗的传统对手沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国以及卡塔尔。

China continued to supply Iran with dual-use technologies and materials that have helped it amass an arsenal of missiles and drones.

中国继续向伊朗提供军民两用技术和材料，帮助其积累了大量导弹和无人机库存。

That included chemicals used to produce fuel for ballistic missiles and components for drones, such as radio frequency connectors and turbine blades

这包括用于生产弹道导弹燃料的化学品，以及无人机零部件，例如射频连接器和涡轮叶片。

But Mr. Hart said China was still “a critical form of support, given Iran’s reliance on ballistic missiles and drones to attack U.S. and Israeli forces and other countries in the region.”

但哈特表示，“鉴于伊朗依赖弹道导弹和无人机攻击美国和以色列部队以及该地区其他国家，”中国仍然是“一种关键的支持形式”。

去年在德黑兰举行的阅兵式上展示的武器。

The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Chinese and Hong Kong front companies it says were set up to source parts and ingredients for ballistic missiles and drones for Iran.

美国财政部已制裁了一些中国和香港的幌子公司，据称这些公司是为伊朗获取弹道导弹和无人机零部件及原料而设立的。

Suspicions are also growing that Iran is using its access to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system, an alternative to the U.S.-owned Global Positioning System, for military purposes. Last month, a U.S. congressional agency said BeiDou may have been used to direct Iran’s drone and missile strikes across the Middle East.

外界还越来越怀疑伊朗正在将其获取的中国北斗卫星导航系统——一种美国全球定位系统GPS的替代方案——用于军事目的。上个月，美国国会下属的一家机构表示，北斗系统可能已被用于引导伊朗在中东地区的无人机和导弹袭击。

In 2022, the Biden administration tried to arrest China’s development of artificial intelligence by denying it cutting-edge semiconductors. President Trump has relaxed that policy a bit without a clear plan to replace it.

2022年，拜登政府试图通过切断先进半导体供应来遏制中国的人工智能发展。特朗普总统则在没有明确替代方案的情况下，稍微放松了这一政策。

But the chip export controls have failed. China’s tech sector is too sophisticated to be stopped from building powerful A.I. In pursuing an impossible objective, the United States is missing an opportunity to try for one that sounds fanciful but which, after a recent reporting trip to China, I believe is more realistic: America should negotiate with China a global pact on A.I. safety, which would impose universal limits on a technology that can do much good — but, in the wrong hands, would do much harm.

但芯片出口管制已经失败了。中国的科技行业自成体系，无法阻止其构建强大的人工智能系统。在追求一个不可能实现的目标时，美国错失了尝试争取的机会：虽然听起来有些理想化，但在最近一次中国采访之行后，我认为它更为现实：美国应与中国就人工智能安全问题达成一项全球性协议，对这项能够带来巨大好处——但若落入坏人之手将造成巨大危害的技术施加普遍限制。

The premise of the export restrictions was that the United States would be able to successfully block China’s access to powerful A.I. chips. The premium chip sets used in A.I. data centers are the size of skateboards and can’t be smuggled in a simple suitcase, and it’s hard to put them to use without hands-on support from the chipmakers’ engineering teams. But Chinese developers circumvented controls by training their A.I. models on chips located in other countries. A Chinese model builder needs only to rent capacity on an A.I. data center in one of China’s Southeast Asian neighbors. Concealing the model’s Chinese origin is straightforward.

出口限制的前提是，美国能够成功阻止中国获得强大的人工智能芯片。用于人工智能数据中心的高端芯片组件体积如滑板般大小，不可能用手提箱轻易走私，而且在没有芯片制造商工程团队现场支持的情况下，也很难投入使用。但中国的开发人员通过位于其他国家的芯片上训练人工智能模型来规避管制。中国的模型开发者只需在某个东南亚邻国的人工智能数据中心租用算力即可。而且掩盖模型的中国来源并不难。

Partly thanks to this loophole, China has rolled out a series of excellent A.I. models. China’s ability to skirt U.S. controls will not change, even if the Senate follows the House in passing a bill to restrict China’s access to outside data centers. China is learning how to do without cutting-edge chips by stacking less powerful chips together. Its model builders also take full advantage of a process known as distillation. Every time a U.S. lab produces a cutting-edge model, Chinese rivals quickly reverse-engineer its capabilities and build a copycat version. The follower has the advantage.

部分得益于这一漏洞，中国已经推出了一系列出色的人工智能模型。即便参议院跟进众议院，通过一项限制中国使用境外数据中心的法案，中国规避美国管控的能力也不会改变。中国正在学会通过将较弱的芯片叠加使用来替代先进芯片，其模型开发者还充分利用一种被称为“蒸馏”的过程。每当美国实验室推出先进的模型，中国竞争者就会迅速对其能力进行逆向工程，并构建出模仿版本。后来者反而具备优势。

American A.I. scientists used to say that competitors’ being able to follow fast would not matter. An “intelligence explosion” was approaching, the argument went. A.I. systems would soon become capable enough to write upgrades into their own code: A.I. would create better A.I.; better A.I. would create even better A.I.; recursive self-improvement would drive performance skyward. The nation that reached this so-called singularity first would be the winner of the A.I. race, even if the fast follower were just a few months behind the leader. Three and a half years after the Biden administration’s chip controls, A.I. is generating code to upgrade itself. The promised feedback loop has started.

美国的人工智能科学家过去常说，竞争对手能够快速跟进并不重要。他们认为，一场“智能爆炸”正在逼近。人工智能系统将很快变得足够强大，能够自己写代码来升级自己：人工智能将创造更好的人工智能；而更好的人工智能又将创造更更好的人工智能；递归式的自我改进将使性能迅速飙升。率先达到所谓“奇点”的国家，即便领先优势只有几个月，也将赢得人工智能竞赛。在拜登政府实施芯片管制三年半后，人工智能已经开始生成用于自我升级的代码。人们所预言的那个“反馈循环”已经启动了。

But the accelerating power of the leading models won’t determine who wins the A.I. race. It’s A.I. deployment that will matter. To transform economies and armies, A.I. must be embedded in business processes and weapons systems. The raw power of the cutting-edge models must be turned into applications.

但领先模型能力的加速提升并不会决定谁赢得人工智能竞赛。真正重要的是人工智能的落地应用。要改变经济和军队，人工智能必须嵌入到业务流程和武器系统中。最先进模型的原始算力必须转化为实际应用。

The upshot is that China and the United States are roughly level in the A.I. contest. Top Chinese models may be a few months behind American ones, and the relative position on military applications is difficult to ascertain as so much is classified. But on industrial applications, China seems to be leading. U.S.-sanctioned companies such as Huawei and Hikvision are rolling out A.I. systems that perform maintenance checks on high-speed trains, manage mining operations and scan water samples to assess pollution. At Huawei’s campus near Shenzhen, I recently took a ride in an autonomous car. A device in the passenger seat massaged my back, and the steering was immaculate.

结论是，中国和美国在人工智能竞争中大致处于同一水平。中国顶尖模型可能落后美国几个月，而在军事应用方面，由于大量信息属于机密，双方的相对位置难以判断。但在工业应用方面，中国似乎领先。像华为和海康威视这样受到美国制裁的公司，正在推出用于高铁维护检测、矿山运营管理以及水样污染检测的人工智能系统。在深圳附近的华为园区，我最近还体验了一次自动驾驶汽车：副驾驶座上的设备会为我按摩背部，转向操作无可挑剔。

Fans of chip controls continue to insist that even a modest slowing of China’s A.I. advance is worth pursuing. If China is a formidable adversary, imagine how much more formidable it might be if the chip controls were lifted. But the controls are failing to deliver the prize of a China with limited A.I., so it is worth considering their cost. My China trip persuaded me that the cost is too high.

芯片管制的支持者仍坚持认为，即便只是稍微减缓中国人工智能的发展，也值得去做。如果中国已经是一个强大的对手，那么可以想象，一旦取消芯片管制，它会变得多么可怕。但这些管制并没有实现限制中国人工智能发展的目标，因此有必要重新评估其代价。这次中国之行让我相信，这一代价过于高昂。

The Biden administration made a strategic choice to prioritize the slowing of China rather than addressing other worries. The alternative would have been to say to China: You are a tech superpower. We are a tech superpower. Let’s work together to make sure A.I. doesn’t fall into the hands of rogue states and terrorists. The goal would have been an A.I. equivalent of the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a regime that would require all countries using A.I. to sign up for safeguards on it.

拜登政府做出了一个战略选择：其优先考量是减缓中国的发展，而非着手应对其他方面的担忧。而当时本可以采取的另一种策略是对中国说：你是一个科技超级大国，我们也是一个科技超级大国。让我们合作，确保人工智能不会落入流氓国家和恐怖分子之手。目标应当是达成一项类似于1968年《核不扩散条约》的人工智能协议，建立起一套制度，要求所有使用人工智能的国家都必须遵守相关安全保障。

The Biden team did not think China would collaborate on something like that. But over a dozen conversations with A.I. leaders in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou made it clear to me that China’s elite does care about A.I. safety.

拜登团队认为，中国不会在这方面合作。但我在北京、上海、深圳和杭州与人工智能领袖进行的十多次交谈清楚地表明，中国的精英阶层确实关心人工智能安全问题。

I visited a prominent tech company that builds and distributes an A.I. foundation model. For now, that model is open source, meaning that users can download and modify it at will. If a user prompts the A.I. to conduct cyberattacks, there’s nothing anyone can do to stop that person. But the chief executive of this tech company made a striking admission: As A.I. becomes more powerful, it would be crazy to continue making it open source, he said. You wouldn’t open-source a nuclear weapon, he added.

我访问了一家开发并发布人工智能基础模型的知名科技公司。目前，该模型是开源的，这意味着用户可以自由下载和修改。如果有人要求该人工智能发起网络攻击，几乎没有办法阻止。但这家公司的首席执行官坦率承认：随着人工智能变得越来越强大，继续保持开源将是疯狂的。他补充说，你不会把核武器开源。

During my trip, the controversy surrounding the advanced model OpenClaw illustrated the rising concern for A.I. safety. Throngs of ordinary Chinese downloaded the digital assistant, eager to experiment with a capable A.I. agent. The enthusiasm apparently confirmed that China loves innovation more than it fears it. But researchers and industry leaders told me that they were appalled. OpenClaw makes your computer “naked,” an eminent business school professor told me. Soon after he said that, China’s leaders firmly discouraged the use of OpenClaw on government systems and warned citizens that the agent might wreak havoc with their data.

在我此次访问期间，先进模型OpenClaw引发的争议凸显了人们对人工智能安全日益增长的担忧。大量普通中国用户下载了这一数字助手，渴望尝试这一强大的智能体。这种热情似乎印证了中国对创新的热爱超过了对风险的担忧。但研究人员和行业领袖告诉我，他们对此感到震惊。一位知名商学院教授表示，OpenClaw会让你的电脑“裸奔”。他发表这一看法后不久，中国的领导人便明确反对在政府系统中使用OpenClaw，并警告公众该智能体可能对他们数据造成巨大破坏。

For now, China’s instinct to race for powerful A.I. overwhelms any caution. This is a rational response to a U.S. administration that is equally determined to put speed ahead of safety. But if a U.S. leader went to China and offered to scrap chip controls in exchange for collaboration on A.I. nonproliferation, there would be at least some chance of the proposal succeeding.

目前，中国竞逐强大人工智能的本能压倒了所有的谨慎。这是对同样决心将速度置于安全之上的美国政府的理性回应。但是，如果一位美国领导人前往中国，提出取消芯片控制以换取在人工智能防扩散方面的合作，这一提议至少存在一定成功的可能性。

This presumes that U.S.-Chinese dialogue is even possible. But the West should not succumb to self-fulfilling fatalism. At times during the Cold War, the United States pursued its interests by switching from confrontation to détente: the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty came just six years after the Cuban missile crisis. Now is a good time to recall that history.

这一设想的前提是美中对话仍然可能。但西方不应陷入消极的自我预言。在冷战期间，美国有时会通过从对抗转向缓和来推进自身利益：《核不扩散条约》正是在古巴导弹危机发生仅六年后达成的。现在正是回顾这段历史的好时机。

Donald Trump ascended to office 10 years ago while publicly jousting with Pope Francis, who was routinely making headlines for the progressive Catholicism he elevated, pushing the Roman Catholic Church to focus on climate change and the rights of immigrants. The pope suggested that Mr. Trump was “not Christian”; Mr. Trump fired back that Francis was “disgraceful.”

10年前，特朗普就任总统时曾与教宗方济各公开论战。当时，方济各因推行进步天主教理念频频登上头条，推动罗马天主教会关注气候变化与移民权利。教宗曾称特朗普“不是基督徒”，特朗普则反击称方济各“可耻”。

Mr. Trump capitalized on growing discontent among conservative Christians and won the White House. The chasm only further widened between the Vatican and conservative American Catholics, who often saw in Mr. Trump a champion.

特朗普利用保守派基督徒日益增长的不满情绪赢得了大选。梵蒂冈与美国保守派天主教徒之间的裂痕由此进一步扩大，后者常将特朗普视为他们的捍卫者。

Pope Leo XIV, who was elected less than a year ago, is not Francis. For Mr. Trump, who is now in his second term, he presents a new foil at the Vatican with a markedly different standing among Catholics. As the first American in the seat of St. Peter, he has a native fluency in American politics and culture, and his leadership is supported across broad swaths of the American church.

当选不足一年的教宗良十四世与方济各截然不同。第二任期的特朗普在梵蒂冈遇到了一位全新对手，他在天主教徒中的地位与前任截然不同。作为首位坐上圣彼得宝座的美国人，良十四世对美国政治与文化有着与生俱来的熟悉，其领导地位也获得了美国教会广泛群体的支持。

This new dynamic was at play in a pointed exchange on Sunday night and Monday, when Mr. Trump unleashed a tirade on social media against Leo, who then stood his ground.

这种全新态势在周日晚间至周一的激烈交锋中尽显无遗：特朗普在社交媒体上对良大肆抨击，教宗则寸步不让。

“I’m not sure this is ultimately going to be a positive fight for the president to wage,” said Matt Salisbury, whose firm provides strategic communications for many conservative Catholic clients.

“总统发起这场论战，我看最终恐怕对他没什么好处，”为众多保守派天主教客户提供战略传播服务的马特·索尔兹伯里表示。

He added that many of his Catholic friends in the Washington area who, like him, voted for Mr. Trump, including some who work in the administration, were “unanimously critical” of the president’s outburst.

他还说，自己在华盛顿地区的许多天主教友人——他们和他一样投票支持特朗普，其中包括一些在政府任职的人——都“一致批评”总统的过激言论。

Unlike his predecessor, Leo has growing support from conservative Catholics in pews across the United States. As the anniversary of his election approaches next month, he has so significantly rebuilt the Vatican’s relationship with the American Catholic right that many in Mr. Trump’s own camp rushed to the pope’s defense on Monday.

与前任不同，良十四世正日益获得美国各地保守派天主教徒的支持。下个月将是他当选一周年，他已大幅修复了梵蒂冈与美国天主教右翼的关系，以至于特朗普阵营内不少人周一纷纷站出来为教宗辩护。

Interviews with conservatives attending Mass at Catholic parishes across the country revealed significant displeasure with the president for his harsh criticism of the pope, a dynamic hard to imagine not long ago.

对全国各地天主教堂参加弥撒的保守派信徒的采访显示，他们对总统严厉批评教宗的行为极为不满，这种局面在不久前还是难以想象的。

Outside midday Mass at the Basilica of Our Lady of San Juan del Valle National Shrine in San Juan, Texas, not far from the border with Mexico, Rudy Gutiérrez, 68, said he had voted for Mr. Trump in each of the past three presidential elections. But the attack on the pope for speaking out against war in Iran amid the threat of escalating violence went too far, he said.

在靠近墨西哥边境的得克萨斯州圣胡安市，圣胡安圣母国家圣殿大教堂的午间弥撒结束后，68岁的鲁迪·古铁雷斯说，过去三次总统选举他都投给了特朗普。但他认为，教宗针对伊朗战争升级风险发声反战却遭特朗普总统攻击，这实在太过分了。

“As a Catholic, I take offense to that, and I am Republican,” Mr. Gutiérrez said.

“作为天主教徒，我对此感到被冒犯，而我还是共和党人，”古铁雷斯说。

At first, many conservative Catholics were wary of Leo’s election, worrying he might be a Francis protégé. But he quickly made it clear that he was gently returning the church to a more traditional path. He has chosen to live in the pope’s quarters of the Apostolic Palace and to renew an old practice of Pope John Paul II by carrying the cross through the Colosseum on Good Friday. He has focused on issues like artificial intelligence, a largely nonpartisan issue in the church, and has not antagonized conservatives over the Latin Mass.

起初，许多保守派天主教徒对良当选心存疑虑，担心他是方济各的门徒。但他很快明确表示，自己正温和地将教会带回更传统的路线。他选择住在宗座宫的教宗官邸，并恢复了约翰·保罗二世时期在耶稣受难日手持十字架穿过罗马斗兽场的旧例。他聚焦人工智能等教会内基本无党派分歧的议题，也未在拉丁弥撒问题上激怒保守派。

2015年教宗方济各访问纽约期间在肯尼迪机场。许多保守派天主教徒不喜欢方济各直言不讳地倡导贫困群体和移民权益。

When Pope Francis toured the United States in 2015, it was his first time in the country. Pope Leo, born Robert Prevost in Chicago, was elected last May after spending most of his career abroad in South America and then Rome.

2015年教宗方济各访美是他首次踏上美国国土。而本名罗伯特·普雷沃斯特的教宗良十四世出生于芝加哥，去年5月当选之前的职业生涯大部分时间在南美、随后在罗马度过。

“Where you’re from matters,” said Kathleen Sprows Cummings, a history professor who specializes in Catholicism at the University of Notre Dame. “He’s got friends, he’s got siblings in the United States. He understands American politics. He knows Republicans and Democrats.”

“出生地很重要，”圣母大学专攻天主教历史的凯瑟琳·斯普劳斯·卡明斯教授说。“他在美国有朋友、有兄弟姐妹。他懂美国政治，了解共和党和民主党。”

“That doesn’t mean that’s why he was elected, or he’s even approaching this as an American,” she said. “But he understands it and he would have been paying attention to Donald Trump in a way that Pope Francis wouldn’t have.”

“这并不意味着他当选是因为这个原因，甚至不意味着他会以美国人的视角处理事务，”她表示。“但他理解美国政治，而且他关注唐纳德·特朗普的方式是方济各不会做的。”

Leo’s modest, calm style also shapes his approach to how he manages volatile American politics. Many conservative Catholics disliked Francis’ outspoken advocacy for the poor and migrants, which they viewed as coming at the expense of other priorities. Although Leo also speaks out for the poor and migrants, he is less dramatic in his speeches.

良谦逊、冷静的风格也塑造了他应对动荡美国政治的方式。许多保守派天主教徒反感方济各直言不讳地倡导贫困群体和移民权益，认为这牺牲了其他优先议题。尽管良十四世也为穷人和移民发声，但他的演讲风格更为克制。

“He’s a very disciplined, reserved person, and that makes his criticism that much harder to dismiss,” said David Gibson, director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University. “This isn’t, ‘There goes Pope Francis again.’ You can’t say that about Leo. This is a person who thinks, who deliberates and says what he means.”

“他是个非常自律、内敛的人，这让他的批评更难以被无视，”福特汉姆大学宗教与文化中心主任戴维·吉布森说，“这不是‘教宗方济各又来了’。对良十四世你不能这么说。他是一个深思熟虑、审慎斟酌、实话实说的人。”

Leo is showing that Catholic teaching does not fit neatly into American political boxes, said Ashley McGuire, a senior fellow at the Catholic Association, a small nonprofit that promotes conservative causes.

推动保守事业的小型非营利组织天主教协会高级研究员阿什利·麦奎尔称，良十四世正在表明，天主教教义无法简单套入美国的政治框架。

“This continues to vex the president, who is treating him like a political adversary,” she said. “If anything, however, that he is American and still defying American political agendas is demonstrating all the more that the papacy is a spiritual, not a political, office.”

“这持续困扰着总统，他把良十四世当成政治对手对待，”她说。“但恰恰因为教宗是美国人却仍敢于违抗美国政治议程，这更能证明教宗职位是属灵职位，而非政治职位。”

Leo has an 84 percent favorability rating among American Catholics, with overwhelmingly high support regardless of political party, according to a Pew Research Center survey from last year. Francis’ favorability rating was just as high the first year of his papacy, but by the time of his death it had dropped to 78 percent.

皮尤研究中心去年的调查显示，良十四世在美国天主教徒中的支持率高达84%，在两党中都获得了极高的支持率。方济各任教宗首年支持率同样极高，但去世时已降至78%。

At Mass at St. Lawrence Catholic Church in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Monday, Fernanda Moreira said she voted for President Trump in 2016 and again in 2024, but now had strong concerns.

周一，在俄亥俄州辛辛那提市圣劳伦斯天主教堂的弥撒上，费尔南达·莫雷拉表示，她2016年和2024年都投票给了特朗普，但如今深感担忧。

“It’s scary,” Ms. Moreira said. “I was for him very much, but I think he’s going in the wrong direction. It’s sad because he’s done so much that is good.”

“这很可怕，”莫雷拉说，“我以前非常支持他，但我觉得他现在走错了方向。很遗憾，因为他做过很多好事。”

Theresa Thien said she voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 because she was tired of career politicians, but after his first four years he lost her support. Now Ms. Thien believes that the president is in a “downward spiral.”

特蕾莎·廷表示，2016年她因厌倦职业政客而投票给特朗普，但在他首个四年任期后便不再支持他。如今，廷认为总统正处于“恶性循环”状态。

“What kind of leader preaches Christ and Christian behavior and threatens to annihilate a population?” asked Ms. Thien, a lifelong Catholic, referring to Mr. Trump’s recent comments about Iran. “Where people say ‘He’s the best’ or ‘He’s appointed by God,’ I don’t know — I have a hard time with that. He threatened the pope.”

“一边宣扬基督和基督徒行为，一边威胁要灭绝一个民族，这算什么样的领导人？”终身信奉天主教的廷谈及特朗普近期关于伊朗的言论时质问道。“当人们说‘他是最棒的’或‘他是上帝选中的’，我实在难以认同。他还威胁教宗。”

At least one conservative Catholic — perhaps the most prominent one — did not seem to object to the president’s outburst.

不过，至少有一名保守派天主教徒——或许是最有影响力的一位——似乎并不反对总统的过激言论。

Leo should “stick to matters of, you know, what’s going on in the Catholic Church,” Vice President JD Vance, who converted to Catholicism in 2019, said on Monday night on Fox News.

2019年皈依天主教的副总统万斯周一晚间在福克斯新闻频道表示，良应该“专注于天主教会内部事务”。

War in the Middle East has upended the world economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, warning in a report that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession.

国际货币基金组织周二表示，中东战争已颠覆了世界经济，并在一份报告中警告称，石油市场遭受的破坏可能会拖累经济增长、加剧通胀，增加全球经济陷入衰退的风险。

The sober message came after the global economy had largely weathered a pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and soaring inflation without tipping into a recession. But President Trump’s decision to initiate a war in Iran has stopped the world economy in its tracks.

这一严峻的判断出炉前，全球经济挺过了疫情、俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争以及通胀飙升，并未陷入衰退。但特朗普总统对伊朗开战的决定使全球经济骤然停滞。

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. sharply downgraded its growth forecasts, exposing the economic fallout from a geopolitical crisis that has roiled energy prices and injected a new bout of uncertainty into the global economy.

在最新一期的《世界经济展望》中，国际货币基金组织大幅下调了增长预期，凸显出这场地缘政治危机对经济的冲击——能源价格剧烈波动，并给全球经济注入新一轮不确定性。

“The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in the report. “The war interrupted what had been a steady growth trajectory.”

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙在报告中写道：“中东战争爆发后，全球前景骤然黯淡。战争打断了原本稳定的增长轨迹。”

The I.M.F. said that even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done. In that best-case scenario, the fund expects global growth to fall to 3.1 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025. That is down from the 3.3 percent that the fund projected in January. It is also lower than the 3.4 percent growth that it was prepared to project before the war broke out and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were halted.

国际货币基金组织表示，即便战争持续时间不长，全球经济所受的损害也已经形成。在最乐观情形下，该机构预计今年全球经济增速将从2025年的3.4%降至3.1%，低于其今年1月预测的3.3%，战争爆发、霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断之前原本准备给出的预测则为3.4%。

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙写道：“战争打断了原本稳定的增长轨迹。”

The forecasts were released as global policymakers arrived in Washington for the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. Just a few weeks ago, the gathering was expected to focus on other disruptions, including trade tensions, artificial intelligence and international fiscal imbalances. It will instead be dominated by the economic fallout of the war.

预测发布之际，全球政策制定者正齐聚华盛顿，参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行的春季会议。就在几周前，此次会议原本预计将聚焦贸易紧张局势、人工智能以及国际财政失衡等问题，但如今议题将被战争带来的经济冲击主导。

As the meetings started on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the I.M.F. and the World Bank to refocus on their core missions — financial stability for the fund and pulling people out of poverty for the bank. Mr. Bessent praised the bank for shifting away from its ambitions to combat climate change and becoming a proponent of nuclear energy.

周二会议开幕时，美国财长斯科特·贝森特敦促国际货币基金组织和世界银行重新聚焦其核心使命——后者的职责是维护金融稳定，前者则应致力于减少贫困。贝森特还称赞世界银行正在从应对气候变化的雄心转向支持核能发展。

However, Mr. Bessent suggested that the I.M.F. needed to “lead by example” and “get rid of their golf course out in Maryland” and instead focus more on global imbalances.

不过，贝森特建议国际货币基金组织需要“以身作则”，“卖掉他们在马里兰州的高尔夫球场”，转而更多地关注全球失衡问题。

“This slow motion buildup of global imbalances after a lack of sustainable growth is the biggest risk,” Mr. Bessent said at an Institute of International Finance gathering on the sidelines of the spring meetings. “The world cannot take a China with a trillion dollar trade surplus.”

“在缺乏可持续增长的情况下，全球失衡的缓慢积累是最大的风险，”贝森特在春季会议期间国际金融协会的一场活动上表示，“世界无法承受一个拥有万亿美元贸易顺差的中国。”

The Treasury secretary made no mention of the war in Iran and its impact on the global economy, which has alarmed the I.M.F. and policymakers around the world.

这位财政部长没有提及伊朗战争及其对全球经济的影响，而这一问题已令国际货币基金组织和世界各国政策制定者深感担忧。

The conflict has sent oil prices above $100 per barrel. Natural gas has spiked more than 80 percent, and surging fertilizer prices are raising costs for farmers.

这场冲突已将油价推高至每桶100美元以上。天然气价格飙升超过80%，不断上涨的化肥价格也在抬高农民的成本。

The I.M.F. laid out several scenarios for how the war could play out economically. The most severe case involves disruptions to energy markets that extend into next year. Such a scenario would drag global growth down to 2 percent and send inflation up to 6 percent.

国际货币基金组织列出了战争可能引发的几种经济情景。最严重的情况是能源市场的扰乱持续到明年。这将把全球经济增速拖至2%，并将通胀推高至6%。

“The downside risks are tremendous,” Mr. Gourinchas said.

“下行风险非常巨大，”古兰沙表示。

Even a more optimistic case, in which the war concludes expeditiously and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, will leave behind economic carnage. The I.M.F. estimates that oil prices will increase by 21.4 percent this year and that energy commodity prices, which the fund had said would decline in 2026, will instead rise by 19 percent this year.

即便是在较为乐观的情形下——战争迅速结束、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放——经济仍将遭受重创。国际货币基金组织预计，今年油价将上涨21.4%，而原本预计在2026年下降的能源大宗商品价格今年反而将上涨19%。

Those higher commodity prices will flow through the economy, the I.M.F. warned. That would raise costs of energy-intensive goods such as steel and cement, erode the purchasing power of consumers and most likely require central banks to raise interest rates.

国际货币基金组织警告称，大宗商品价格的上涨将传导至整个经济。这将推高钢铁、水泥等能源密集型产品的成本，削弱消费者的购买力，并很可能迫各国使央行加息。

The I.M.F. expects the economic impact of the war to be more damaging to low-income and developing economies and Persian Gulf energy exporters that are facing infrastructure damage and export disruptions from the war.

国际货币基金组织预计，这场战争对低收入和发展中经济体以及波斯湾能源出口国的冲击将更为严重，这些国家因为战事而正面临基础设施受损和出口受阻的问题。

Advanced economies, such as the United States, are expected to fare better but not emerge unscathed. The I.M.F. now projects U.S. output to rise to 2.3 percent in 2026. That is an increase from 2.1 percent growth in 2025, but slower than the 2.4 percent growth that the fund projected in January.

像美国这样的发达经济体预计表现会好一些，但也不可能毫发无损。国际货币基金组织目前预计2026年美国的经济产出将增长2.3%。这高于2025年的2.1%，但低于该组织在今年1月预测的2.4%。

The White House projected 3.5 percent gross domestic product growth in 2026 in its latest budget forecasts.

白宫在其最新的预算预测中估计，2026年美国国内生产总值将增长3.5%。

In the United States, the most apparent economic vulnerability appears to be the hit that consumers are feeling from higher gas prices. The national average for a gallon of gas was $4.11 as of Tuesday.

在美国，最明显的经济软肋似乎是汽油价格上涨对消费者造成的冲击。截至周二，全国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.11美元。

According to the I.M.F. report, the biggest winner from the war thus far appears to be Russia, whose economy is now expected to grow 1.1 percent in 2026, up from 1 percent in 2025.

根据国际货币基金组织的报告，到目前为止，这场战争中最大的赢家似乎是俄罗斯，其经济预计将在2026年增长1.1%，高于2025年的1%。

Higher oil prices and the temporary lifting of U.S. sanctions on some Russian oil sales brightened the outlook for its economy.

油价上涨以及美国暂时解除对俄罗斯部分石油销售的制裁对它的经济前景起到了提振效果。

Addressing an audience of just a few hundred people, Peter Magyar, a charismatic but largely unknown lawyer, swayed atop an unsteady flatbed truck two years ago and issued a preposterous command: “Take back our country, step by step, brick by brick.”

两年前，魅力十足但当时几乎无人知晓的律师彼得·毛焦尔站在一辆摇摇晃晃的平板卡车上，对着区区几百人的听众发表演讲，他发出了一个看似荒谬的命令：“一步一步、一砖一瓦，夺回我们的国家。”

The childhood home of Hungary’s seemingly invincible prime minister, Viktor Orban, was just down the road, and the idea that Europe’s longest-serving head of government would allow a jumped-up attorney to tear down his laboriously constructed and very sturdy political movement — a vote-winning machine called Fidesz — seemed absurd.

当时，匈牙利看似不可战胜的总理维克托·欧尔班的童年故居就在这条街的不远处。欧洲在任时间最长的政府首脑竟然会允许一个自命不凡的律师去拆毁他费尽心血、坚不可摧的政治机器——那个名叫青民盟(Fidesz)的选票收割机，这听起来简直荒唐。

Now, having demolished Mr. Orban’s governing party in a general election on Sunday, Mr. Magyar, 45, stands at the pinnacle of power in Hungary. He was hoisted there by a two-thirds majority of seats in Parliament and a share of the popular vote larger than a single party has received since the fall of Communism nearly four decades ago.

如今，现年45岁的毛焦尔在周日议会选举中亲手摧毁了欧尔班的执政党。他以议会三分之二多数席位和自共产党垮台近四十年来单一政党从未达到过的最高得票率登上了匈牙利的权力巅峰。

Mr. Magyar will not formally take over from Mr. Orban as prime minister until Parliament resumes for its first post-election session, which must happen before May 12. But given that nearly 80 percent of registered voters cast ballots, a record turnout, he has already assumed the role of Hungary’s undisputed leader.

毛焦尔要等到议会举行首次选举后会议（必须在5月12日前）才会正式从欧尔班手中接过总理职位。但鉴于近80%的登记选民参与、投票率创下纪录，他实际上已经成为了匈牙利无可争议的领导人。

But how is Mr. Magyar going to use his power and to what end?

但毛焦尔打算如何运用手中的权力？又想达到什么样的目的？

3月，毛焦尔参加一场反对派的集会。

A priority, Mr. Magyar told cheering supporters on Sunday night, is to pull down the “puppets and pillars” of Mr. Orban’s system: the Fidesz-aligned heads of the Supreme Court, of the prosecution service and of various nominally independent agencies overseeing the media, the judiciary, the state budget and the policing of anti-competition laws.

周日晚，毛焦尔对欢呼的支持者说，他的首要任务是拆除欧尔班体系的“傀儡和支柱”：那些与青民盟结盟的最高法院院长、检察长，以及负责监管媒体、司法、国家预算和反垄断执法的所谓独立机构负责人。

“They should leave of their own volition rather than wait for us to fire them because we will fire them,” he warned. “They occupied our country.” Dismissing them could prove difficult; some officials serve for fixed terms, and Parliament has limited ability to unilaterally force them out.

“他们最好主动离开，而不是等着我们把他们炒掉——因为我们一定会炒掉他们，”他警告道，“他们占领了我们的国家。”要解雇这些人可能并不容易；有些官员有固定任期，议会在单方面罢免他们的权力上也受到限制。

On Monday, at a three-hour news conference, he said he wanted Hungary’s president, Tamas Sulyok, gone, too. The presidency is a mostly ceremonial job, so getting rid of Mr. Sulyok would be less a power grab than a symbolic strike against Mr. Orban’s old order.

周一，在一场长达三小时的新闻发布会上，他表示希望现任总统道马什·舒尤克也下台。总统职位基本是礼仪性的，因此罢免舒尤克与其说是权力争夺，不如说是对欧尔班旧秩序的一次象征性打击。

“The regime has fallen, and the Hungarian people have voted for a change of system,” Mr. Magyar said in Budapest, the Hungarian capital. “That is the crux of the matter, in my view. Let us start from there.”

“旧政权已经倒台，匈牙利人民投票选择了体制变革，”毛焦尔在首都布达佩斯说，“在我看来，这就是问题的核心。我们就从这里入手。”

Mr. Magyar said Hungary would rejoin the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, a wing of the European Union that investigates financial crimes, in a sharp break with Mr. Orban’s government, which often portrayed E.U. efforts to enforce rules that Hungary had agreed to abide by as an intolerable affront to Hungarian sovereignty. Rejoining the office would give European investigators the power to examine fraud cases involving the previous administration, including some that could touch Mr. Orban’s family, notably his son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, a wealthy tycoon.

毛焦尔宣布，匈牙利将重新加入欧盟下属的欧洲公共检察官办公室，这与欧尔班政府形成鲜明对比。后者曾经常把欧盟要求匈牙利遵守其同意的规则描绘成对匈牙利主权的不可容忍的冒犯。重新加入该机构将赋予欧洲调查人员审查前政府腐败案件的权力，其中一些案件可能牵涉欧尔班的家族，尤其是他的女婿、富豪商人伊什特万·蒂博尔茨。

Mr. Magyar makes for an unlikely scourge of the establishment. He was born into a conservative Budapest family and raised in a wealthy district on the eastern side of the Danube River. His relatives include lawyers and judges and a former president, Ferenc Madl, whose tenure in office from 2000 to 2005 overlapped with part of Mr. Orban’s first term as prime minister.

毛焦尔看上去并不像是会成为建制派天敌的人。他出生于布达佩斯一个保守家庭，在多瑙河东岸富裕区长大。他的亲属中不乏律师、法官，还有前总统费伦茨·马德尔，后者在2000年至2005年任职期间与欧尔班的首个总理任期部分重叠。

毛焦尔的着装有着鲜明的预科生风格。

Mr. Magyar’s uniform for most of his appearances on the campaign trail — white shirt, slim-fit jeans or slacks — had a decidedly preppy look, not that of a rebel working to topple the government.

毛焦尔在竞选期间的大多数亮相中都穿着白衬衫、修身牛仔裤或休闲裤，一副典型的预科生打扮，完全不像要推翻政府的叛逆者。

Sandor Laszlo Esik, a lawyer and conservative commentator who was a student with Mr. Magyar in the early 2000s at Pazmany Peter Catholic University in Budapest, remembers a different vibe. “The guy had a total disco-rat look back then, with spiky, gelled-back hair, that ’90s German techno hairstyle,” he recalled.

律师兼保守派评论员山多尔·拉斯洛·埃希克曾与毛焦尔在2000年代初一同就读于布达佩斯的帕兹马尼·彼得天主教大学。他回忆说，那时候的毛焦尔完全是另一种风格：“那家伙当时一副地下狂欢青年的打扮，头发打满发胶往后梳成刺猬头，就是那种90年代德国科技舞曲风的发型。”

Back then, Mr. Magyar attended events organized by Fidesz, Mr. Esik said. The Catholic university, he added, served as a “seedbed of young Fidesz talent.” Its students at the time also included Gergely Gulyas, who later became Mr. Orban’s chief of staff, and Mate Kocsis, who became a prominent Fidesz lawmaker.

埃希克说，当时毛焦尔会参加青民盟组织的活动。那所天主教大学是“青民盟年轻人才的温床”。当时的学生中还包括后来成为欧尔班幕僚长的盖尔盖伊·古亚什，以及后来成为青民盟重要议员的马泰·科奇什。

They were all studying law, like Mr. Orban, now 62, had done at another Budapest university more than a decade earlier.

和欧尔班一样，他们当时都在读法律。现年62岁的欧尔班比他们早十多年曾在布达佩斯的另一所大学读法律。

For most of his career as a corporate lawyer, Mr. Magyar remained close to people in Mr. Orban’s circle.

在担任公司律师的职业生涯大部分时间里，毛焦尔一直与欧尔班圈子内的人保持密切联系。

Mr. Magyar worked in a senior position at a state-owned bank overseen by Fidesz loyalists and as a diplomat in Brussels. He married Judit Varga, who later became Mr. Orban’s justice minister, before they announced their divorce in 2023.

他曾在青民盟忠实拥护者掌控的国有银行担任高管，还曾在布鲁塞尔担任外交官。他娶了后来成为欧尔班的司法部长的尤迪特·瓦尔加，两人于2023年宣布离婚。

Mr. Magyar’s political transition began in 2024 after an independent media outlet, 444, revealed that Mr. Sulyok’s predecessor as president, Katalin Novak, had pardoned a man who had been convicted of helping to cover up sexual abuse in a state-run children’s home.

毛焦尔的政坛转型始于2024年。当时独立媒体《444》曝光，前总统卡塔琳·诺瓦克曾赦免一名被判参与掩盖国有儿童福利院性侵案的男子。

Mr. Magyar’s ex-wife, Ms. Varga, had countersigned the pardon order.

毛焦尔的前妻瓦尔加正是那份赦免令的副署人。

The news stirred outrage among Fidesz supporters who liked the party for its promises to protect children and family values. The president resigned, and Ms. Varga was forced to quit.

这则新闻在青民盟支持者中引发众怒，因为该党一向标榜保护儿童和家庭价值观。总统随后辞职，瓦尔加也被迫辞职。

On the day of Ms. Varga’s resignation, Mr. Magyar announced in a Facebook post that he was breaking with Fidesz and leaving the state-owned company where he worked.

在瓦尔加辞职当天，毛焦尔在Facebook发帖宣布与青民盟决裂，并辞去国有公司的工作。

A few months later he took over the leadership of an existing but inactive political party called Tisza, which in June 2024 stunned the Fidesz establishment by winning nearly 30 percent of the vote in elections for the European Parliament.

几个月后，他接手了一个已经停止活动的政党——蒂萨党。2024年6月，该党在欧洲议会选举中获得近30%的选票，震惊了青民盟建制派。

2024年，在维克托·欧尔班的司法部长尤迪特·瓦尔加被迫辞职后，毛焦尔组织了一场抗议活动。

For some, Mr. Magyar seemed like a youthful version of Mr. Orban, who began his political life as a teenage Communist activist before his rise to prominence in the 1980s as a vocal critic of the regime.

对一些人来说，毛焦尔就像年轻的欧尔班——后者年轻时曾是共产主义活动分子，后来在1980年代以体制批评者的身份声名鹊起。

One big difference between them involves religion. Mr. Magyar has long been a believer, unlike Mr. Orban, who was an atheist until he tilted to the right.

两人之间一个显著差异在于宗教信仰。毛焦尔长期以来都是信徒，而欧尔班在右转之前一直是无神论者。

During the campaign Mr. Magyar wore a wristband with a small wooden cross attached. His rallies in small towns often had the feel of religious revival meetings, with Mr. Magyar asking attendees to join and raise their hands in celebration. “God bless Hungary, God bless every Hungarian,” he said on election night. Mr. Magyar’s conservative side has led to some tensions with Mr. Orban’s most fervent foes — progressive activists and journalists in Budapest.

竞选期间，毛焦尔佩戴了一条系着小木十字架的手链。他在小城镇举办的集会常常带有宗教复兴会的氛围，毛焦尔会邀请与会者一起举手庆祝。选举之夜他说：“上帝保佑匈牙利，上帝保佑每一位匈牙利人。”毛焦尔的保守立场也让他与欧尔班最激烈的反对者——布达佩斯的进步派活动家和记者——产生了摩擦。

They were upset that he stayed silent last year when the government banned an annual Pride march in Budapest. The event had been held for years without incident. Mr. Orban’s party then rushed legislation through Parliament to make it illegal to hold gatherings like Pride parades.

去年政府禁止在布达佩斯举行一年一度的骄傲游行时，他保持沉默，这让进步派感到不满。这项举办了多年的活动一直没有生过事端，而欧尔班的政党迅速通过立法将此类骄傲游行定为非法。

The ban put Mr. Magyar in a difficult position. Progressives in Budapest wanted him to take a stand, but so did Fidesz, which was looking for ways to portray him as a closet liberal. Mr. Magyar avoided the trap by saying nothing.

这项禁令让毛焦尔陷入两难。布达佩斯的进步派希望他表态，青民盟则希望把他描绘成乔装打扮的自由派。毛焦尔选择了沉默，避开了陷阱。

Now able to speak more freely since his election victory, Mr. Magyar this week expressed his support of the freedom of assembly, gay rights and other liberties circumscribed by the previous government.

如今选举获胜后可以更自由地发言，本周毛焦尔表达了对集会自由、同性恋权利以及此前政府限制的其他自由权利的支持。

“In Hungary, everyone has the right to freedom of assembly. Period,” he said on Monday.

“在匈牙利，每个人都有集会自由。就这么简单，”他在周一说道。

When China declared on Monday that the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was “dangerous and irresponsible,” it was a brief window into President Trump’s latest challenge: how to keep the Iran conflict from upending an emerging détente with China.

周一，中国公开表态称美国封锁伊朗石油经霍尔木兹海峡外运的行为“危险且不负责任”，这一言论短暂揭示了特朗普总统面临的最新挑战：如何防止美伊冲突破坏与中国之间正在形成的缓和态势。

Mr. Trump is expected to land in Beijing in four weeks, in what was imagined as a carefully planned, highly orchestrated effort to recast the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

特朗普预计四周后抵达北京，此行原本被设想为一场精心策划、高度统筹的行程，旨在重塑全球两大经济体间的关系。

The president has already delayed the trip once, and White House officials insist there is no discussion of putting it off again, even if the United States is still choking off Iranian oil exports. Ninety percent of those exports — more than 1.3 million barrels per day — were purchased by China before the American and Israeli attack began on Feb. 28.

总统已推迟过一次访华行程，白宫官员坚称即便美国仍在切断伊朗石油出口，也不会再讨论推迟访华事宜。在2月28日美以发动袭击前，伊朗90%的石油出口——日均超130万桶——均由中国购买。

At first the Chinese were relatively quiet about the military action, knowing that the shipments already at sea and an impressive stockpile of emergency reserves of oil would likely tide them through. They ignored Mr. Trump’s demand that China send warships to keep the strait open. They produced standard-issue calls for both sides to stand down.

起初，中国对此次军事行动保持相对沉默，因为中方清楚海上已在途的油轮与充足的应急石油储备足以助其渡过难关。中方无视特朗普要求中国派遣军舰维护海峡畅通，仅按惯例呼吁双方保持克制。

But once the blockade began on Monday, and facing the prospect that Chinese-flagged cargo ships, some manned by Chinese crews, could be turned away by the U.S. Navy, the tone shifted.

但随着周一美国封锁正式启动，且悬挂中国国旗、部分由中国船员驾驶的货轮可能遭美军拦截的前景，中方的态度发生转变。

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, made his first public comments on the war on Tuesday, saying that the world could not risk reverting “to the law of the jungle.” He never mentioned the United States or Mr. Trump. But he did not need to, adding during a meeting with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi that “maintaining the authority of international rule of law means not using it when it suits us and abandoning it when it doesn’t.”

中国领导人习近平周二首次就这场战争公开发声，指出世界绝不能重回“丛林法则”。他未直接提及美国或特朗普，但在与阿布扎比王储会晤时补充道：“维护国际法治权威，不能‘合则用、不合则弃’。”

It was a clear reference to Mr. Trump, who in January told The New York Times that “I don’t need international law,” adding, “I’m not looking to hurt people.” He made it clear that he would be the arbiter of when international legal constraints applied to his actions.

这番言论明显是指特朗普，今年1月，特朗普曾对《纽约时报》表示“我不需要国际法”，并补充“我无意伤害他人”，他明确表示，自己将是判断国际法律约束是否适用于其行动的唯一裁决者。

China’s foreign ministry, playing its accustomed role in signaling between Washington and Beijing, took a tougher line, accusing the United States of a “targeted blockade” that “will only aggravate confrontation, escalate tension, under the already fragile cease-fire, and further jeopardize safe passage thorough the Strait of Hormuz.”

中国外交部扮演着中美间信号传递的惯常角色，该部门采取更强硬立场，指责美国实施“定向封锁”，称其“只会激化矛盾，加剧局势紧张，破坏本就脆弱的停火局面，并进一步冲击海峡通行安全”。

For his part, Mr. Trump has largely refrained from uttering much criticism, even when it became clear last week that U.S. intelligence agencies had obtained information that China might have sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles to the Iranians, for use in the conflict. The intelligence was not definitive, and there is no evidence that Chinese missiles have been used against U.S. or Israeli forces.

而特朗普本人基本未发表过多批评言论，即便上周有明确消息显示，美国情报机构获取信息称中国可能向伊朗运送一批肩扛式导弹用于冲突。该情报并非确凿证据，也无迹象表明中国导弹已被用于打击美以军队。

“I doubt they would do that," Mr. Trump said. He quickly added that “if we catch them doing that, they get a 50 percent tariff,” employing his go-to threat against any country defying his will. But he has dropped the subject, perhaps recognizing that any threat of new tariffs could derail his hopes of announcing a trade deal, the lowest-hanging fruit in U.S.-China diplomacy.

“我怀疑他们会这么做，”特朗普表示，随即补充说，“如果我们抓到他们这么做，就要对他们征收50%的关税”——这是他对抗拒其意志的国家惯用的威胁手段。但他此后未再提及此事，或许是意识到任何新的关税威胁都可能打乱他宣布达成贸易协议的计划，而这正是中美外交中最容易达成的成果。

“President Trump has created the circumstance where two of his biggest goals are in direct conflict,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and the chairman of the Asia Group, which he founded.

“特朗普总统制造了一种局面，使他的两大核心目标直接冲突，”曾任拜登政府副国务卿的库尔特·坎贝尔指出，他现任由其创立的亚洲集团董事长。

“One is to monitor and control all cargo coming through the strait, which includes China’s,” he said. “And the other is his desire for a manifestly positive visit to Beijing.”

“一个目标是监控并管控经海峡的所有货物，包括中国船只；另一个则是希望对北京进行一次能取得明显积极成果的访问。”

Mr. Trump’s ambassador to China, David Perdue, was in the Oval Office late on Tuesday, discussing the upcoming visit. National security officials said that before the Iran conflict broke out, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had negotiated the outlines of economic initiatives the two countries would announce.

周二晚些时候，特朗普的驻华大使庞德伟(David Perdue)现身椭圆形办公室，商讨即将到来的访华行程。国家安全官员表示，美伊冲突爆发前，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特已就两国即将宣布的经济举措框架进行了磋商。

Far less progress has been made on the major security issues, according to U.S. officials, including how to talk about the future of Taiwan, or China’s fast-growing nuclear arsenal, or its military buildup in the South China Sea and the confrontations it has sparked with the Philippines.

据美国官员透露，双方在重大安全议题上的进展要少得多，包括如何探讨台湾的未来、中国快速扩张的核武库，其在南海的军事扩张以及由此引发的与菲律宾的对峙。

With a month to go before Mr. Trump lands in Beijing, it is still unclear how the two leaders will structure a conversation about the blockade — if it is still in force — or about the display of U.S. military power that began with the seizure of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, then proceeded with Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran.

距离特朗普抵达北京还有一个月，目前仍不清楚若封锁仍在持续，两国领导人将如何安排相关对话，无论是关于封锁本身，还是始于抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗、继而升级为特朗普袭击伊朗的美国军事力量展示。

But there is considerable evidence the Chinese military is intently focused on how the United States pulled off both attacks. Chinese officials appear concerned about the speed at which the Iranian leadership was decapitated in the opening hours of the war.

但大量迹象显示，中国军方正密切关注美国如何实施这两次军事打击。中国官员似乎对战争初期伊朗领导层被迅速斩首的速度感到担忧。

“There is a lot of speculation about what can break the U.S.-China détente, and undermine the summit,” said Rush Doshi, an assistant professor at Georgetown University and former adviser to Mr. Biden on China. “It hasn’t been issues like A.I. chips, or even rare earths,” he added, referring to two areas of intense competition between the two nations. “But it could be Iran.”

“关于什么因素可能打破中美缓和态势、破坏峰会，外界有诸多猜测，”乔治城大学助理教授、曾任拜登政府中国问题顾问的杜如松(Rush Doshi)表示。“并不是人工智能芯片、甚至稀土等议题，”他补充说，指的是中美两国竞争激烈的两个领域。“而是伊朗问题。”

The blockade, Mr. Doshi said, could “create awkward dynamics” if there is a confrontation between the Navy and commercial Chinese ships, though both have seemed eager to avoid that. “And the second is reports that China is considering sending lethal assistance to help to Iran,” which senior congressional and intelligence officials appear to take seriously.

杜如松称，若美军与中国商船发生对峙，封锁将“制造尴尬局面”，尽管双方似乎都极力避免这种情况。“第二个风险则是有关中国考虑向伊朗提供危险援助的报道”，美国国会与情报部门高级官员似乎对此高度重视。

As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home.

随着中国庞大的贸易顺差加剧全球紧张局势，北京出台了全面新规，对那些因国内政治压力而放弃中国供应商的外国企业展开调查并予以处罚。

Foreign business groups expressed strong concern about the vaguely worded rules, which took effect when Premier Li Qiang signed them on April 7. Analysts warned that the regulations could make it harder for foreign companies to divest from joint ventures in China or shift orders to overseas suppliers.

外国商业团体对措辞模糊的新规表达强烈担忧。4月7日，国务院总理李强签署发布后，这些规定即刻生效。分析人士警告，新规可能让外国企业更难剥离在华合资企业资产，或将订单转移至海外供应商。

The new regulations are part of Beijing’s broader effort to counter what it sees as rising protectionism in the West, driven by a surge in Chinese exports and growing concerns about trade imbalances. China’s exports exceeded imports by almost $1.2 trillion last year, and the country notched another large surplus in the first quarter.

新规是北京方面更广泛努力的一部分，旨在应对其认为西方日益加剧的保护主义——这种保护主义是由中国出口激增以及对贸易失衡的日益担忧所驱动的。去年中国贸易顺差近1.2万亿美元，今年第一季度再录得巨额顺差。

China’s manufacturing dominance spans nearly every industry. But companies that once flocked to its factories for low-cost, high-quality production are now looking to reduce their dependence, pressured by their governments not to abandon local manufacturing and the perception that doing business in China is becoming more challenging. Foreign automakers have closed factories as the Chinese market slows.

中国制造业优势几乎覆盖所有行业。但那些曾蜂拥至中国工厂寻求低成本、高质量生产的企业，如今正寻求降低对华依赖。它们一方面受本国政府要求、不愿放弃本土制造业，另一方面也认为在华经营难度日益加大。随着中国市场放缓，多家外国车企已关闭在华工厂。

The 18-point regulations, described in state media as an effort to “prevent security risks in industrial and supply chains,” supplement the already formidable authority afforded to Chinese regulators to investigate multinational corporations for moving supply chains out of China.

这套规定共18条，被官方媒体称为“防范产业链供应链安全风险”的举措，进一步强化了中国监管机构已有的强大权限，可对将供应链迁出中国的跨国企业展开调查。

Under the new rules, regulators can question employees and examine corporate records during investigations. The regulations also allow authorities to bar companies and individuals from leaving China if they are suspected of moving supply chains elsewhere under foreign pressure.

根据新规，监管机构调查期间可询问企业员工、查阅公司记录。该规定还允许当局禁止涉嫌在外国压力下将供应链转移至其他地方的公司和个人离境。

去年，越南一家中资家具厂皮革裁剪车间的工人。

“The threat that individual employees could be punished through exit bans is concerning, given the lack of a clear and transparent legal process,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement.

“鉴于缺乏清晰透明的法律程序，员工个体可能因限出境受罚的威胁令人担忧，”中国欧盟商会主彦辞(Jens Eskelund)在声明中表示。

The State Council, China’s cabinet, justified the measures as necessary to protect the country’s economic stability and national security — a rationale it has previously used to expand its ability to pressure companies. China has also adopted sweeping state secrets laws to prevent information from leaving the country.

中国国务院称，这是维护国家经济稳定与国家安全的必要之举——此前北京也曾以此为由，扩大对企业的施压力度。中国还出台了全面的国家保密法，防止信息外流。

The new rules build upon Beijing’s existing efforts to prevent Western companies from avoiding goods from northwest China’s Xinjiang region, where researchers have cited evidence of forced labor, mass arrests and confinement to re-education camps targeting the region’s predominantly Muslim Uyghur population.

此前，为阻止西方企业抵制中国西北部新疆地区产品，北京已采取相关行动，新规正是在此基础上推出。研究人员曾援引证据指出，新疆存在针对以穆斯林为主的维吾尔人口的强迫劳动、大规模逮捕及拘禁于再教育营地等行为。

China’s Ministry of Commerce investigated PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, in 2024, accusing it of “discriminatory measures” against products from Xinjiang, which produces a fifth of the world’s cotton.

2024年，中国商务部曾调查卡尔文·克莱恩与汤米·希尔费格的母公司PVH公司，指控其对新疆产品采取“歧视性措施”。新疆棉花产量占全球五分之一。

Michael Hart, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said that foreign businesses had not been consulted in drafting the latest rules and warned that the accumulation of legal threats against foreign businesses in China could backfire.

中国美国商会会长何迈可(Michael Hart)表示，中国在起草最新规定时未征询外国企业意见，并警告，针对在华外企的法律风险不断累积，可能适得其反。

“There needs to be more clarity, or this could cause foreign players to de-risk further from China,” he wrote in a text message.

“需要有更明确的说明，否则可能导致外国企业进一步降低对华风险敞口，” 他在短信中写道。

Evan Smith, chief executive of Altana, a New York-based supply chain mapping company, said that China’s global network of ports and port-management software gives Chinese officials detailed insight into multinationals’ supply chains, allowing them to detect when companies shift to suppliers elsewhere.

纽约供应链地图公司Altana首席执行官埃文·史密斯称，中国遍布全球的港口网络及港口管理软件，让中国官员能详细掌握跨国企业供应链动态，及时察觉企业转向其他地区供应商的动向。

A severe housing downturn has left China’s economy heavily dependent on a trade surplus that has shattered previous world records, even as President Trump levied tariffs aimed at eroding that advantage.

中国房地产市场深度低迷使得经济高度依赖屡破世界纪录的贸易顺差，即便特朗普总统加征关税试图削弱这一优势，情况也未改变。

今年中国汽车销量下降了17%，这促使中国汽车制造商进一步转向全球市场。

On Tuesday, China’s General Administration of Customs announced that the country’s trade surplus narrowed slightly to $265 billion in the first three months of this year, as the cost of oil imports rose.

周二，中国海关总署公布，受石油进口成本上涨影响，今年一季度贸易顺差小幅收窄至2650亿美元。

Car sales in China have plunged 17.4 percent so far this year, prompting automakers to turn outward . Car exports soared 50.3 percent in the first three months of this year. The export surge is raising concerns about job losses in the West and in developing countries like Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil.

今年以来，中国汽车销量暴跌 17.4%，促使汽车制造商将目光投向海外。一季度汽车出口激增50.3%。出口猛增引发西方及马来西亚、墨西哥、巴西等发展中国家对就业岗位流失的担忧。

China’s new supply chain rules come a year after it imposed strict export controls on rare earth metals and rare earth magnets, which are essential to a wide range of industries.

中国出台新供应链规定前一年，曾对稀土及稀土磁体实施严格出口管制，这些材料是众多行业的关键原料。

Initially aimed at the United States in response to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the restrictions have also curtailed shipments to the European Union over the past year, reflecting China’s opposition to European tariffs on imported Chinese electric cars.

管制最初针对美国，回应特朗普的“解放日”关税；过去一年，限制范围也扩大至欧盟，这反映了中国对欧盟对进口中国电动汽车征收关税的反对立场。

上个月，在中国东部山东省烟台市的一个码头，工人们正将尿素肥料装载到货轮上准备出口。

In a report released Tuesday, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China strongly criticized China’s growing use of export controls, particularly on rare earths. A survey found that the restrictions have affected European companies across a wide range of industries, although not in food, beverages, retail and education.

在周二发布的一份报告中，中国欧盟商会强烈批评中国日益频繁使用出口管制，尤其是稀土管制。调查显示，这些限制影响了欧洲众多行业企业，但食品、饮料、零售及教育行业除外。

“There is now a recognition that China’s emerging export-control regime poses a long-term business risk, given that the ability to export a particular item could be taken away at any point based on political rather than security factors,” the report said.

“如今各方意识到，中国正在成型的出口管制体系构成长期商业风险，特定商品的出口权可能随时因政治因素、而非安全因素被剥夺，” 报告称。

The issuance of new supply chain regulations comes as thousands of auto executives and engineers prepare to gather in Beijing next week for the city’s auto show.

新供应链法规出台之际，数千名汽车行业高管与工程师正准备于下周齐聚北京，参加当地车展。

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, said on Tuesday that the world cannot risk reverting “to the law of the jungle,” a thinly veiled criticism of the United States, in his most direct public comments on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

中国领导人习近平周二表示，不能让世界倒回“丛林法则”，这是他就美以对伊战争最直接的公开评论，措辞中隐晦地批评了美国。

“Maintaining the authority of international rule of law means not using it when it suits us and abandoning it when it doesn’t,” he said in a meeting with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi in Beijing.

“维护国际法治权威，不能‘合则用、不合则弃’，”他在北京会见阿布扎比王储时说道。

Mr. Xi’s remarks, in addition to meetings and calls held by senior Chinese officials in recent days, suggest that Beijing is playing a more active role in trying to build on the two-week cease-fire that the United States and Israel struck with Iran last week. China is also heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, where Iran has restricted shipping for weeks and where the United States has begun enforcing a blockade aimed at choking off Iranian oil income.

习近平的这番表态，加上中国高级官员近期所进行的一系列会晤与通话，表明中国正试图在巩固上周美以与伊朗达成的两周停火方面发挥更积极的作用。中国也高度依赖霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，而伊朗已在该海峡限制航运数周，美国则在此地开始实施旨在切断伊朗石油收入的封锁。

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, on Monday called on his counterpart in Pakistan to help “preserve the hard-won momentum” of talks it hosted over the weekend between the United States and Iran that failed to produce a peace agreement. During a meeting with the United Arab Emirates’ special envoy for China affairs, Mr. Wang also said that Beijing was pushing for a return to peace in the region.

中国外交部长王毅周一呼吁巴基斯坦外长协助“保持来之不易停火势头”，即上周末在巴基斯坦举行的美伊会谈，尽管该会谈未能达成和平协议。在会见阿联酋总统中国事务特使时，王毅还表示，北京正在推动该地区恢复和平安宁。

While China has condemned the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, it has also tried to maintain a neutral stance as it balances its partnership with Tehran and manages tensions with the United States. President Trump is set to visit Beijing in May, where he is expected to discuss extending a truce in the U.S.-China trade war.

尽管中国谴责了美以对伊战争，但在平衡与德黑兰的伙伴关系以及管控与美国的紧张关系之间，中国也试图保持中立立场。特朗普总统预计将于5月访问北京，届时可能讨论延长中美贸易战的停火协议。

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, said that as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has deepened, China has adopted a more active posture diplomatically. As much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped through the waterway.

上海外国语大学中东研究所丁隆教授表示，随着霍尔木兹海峡危机加深，中国在外交上采取了更为积极的姿态。中国高达40%的石油进口要经由该水道运输。

“Fundamentally it’s about the cessation of hostilities as soon as possible. This is the key,” he said. “It’s about giving peace talks a chance, and China is willing to play a greater role.”

“从根本上说，就是要尽快实现停火，这是关键，”他说。“就是要给和谈一个机会，而中国愿意发挥更大的作用。”

The United States and Iran traded proposals for a suspension of Iranian nuclear activities during weekend negotiations in Pakistan, but remain far apart on the length of any agreement, according to Iranian and U.S. officials.

据美伊两国官员透露，美伊双方在周末于巴基斯坦举行的谈判中，就暂停伊朗核活动交换了提案，但在协议期限问题上仍存在巨大分歧。

Iran said Monday that it could suspend uranium enrichment for up to five years — an offer the Trump administration rejected, insisting on 20 years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. Still, the discussions suggested that there may be a path to a peace deal, even as the U.S. military began its blockade of Iranian ports on Monday, threatening a nearly week-old cease-fire.

两名伊朗高级官员和一名美国官员表示，伊朗周一提出可暂停铀浓缩活动最长五年，但特朗普政府拒绝了这一提议，坚持要求期限为20年。尽管如此，这些讨论仍表明，即便美国军方周一已开始封锁伊朗港口，威胁到持续近一周的停火协议，但达成和平协议的途径或许依然存在。

Officials said they were discussing a second round of face-to-face talks, but provided no details.

官员们称，双方正在商讨举行第二轮面对面会谈，但未透露任何细节。

President Trump announced the blockade after high-level negotiations with Iran broke down over the weekend, and said that other countries would join in. But on Monday, several European leaders rejected the idea, and at least one vessel, a tanker linked to Iran, appeared to defy the blockade.

特朗普总统在周末美伊高层谈判破裂后宣布实施封锁，并表示其他国家将加入这一行动。但周一，多位欧洲领导人拒绝了该提议，且至少有一艘与伊朗有关联的油轮似乎无视了封锁令。

Shortly after the blockade went into effect Monday morning, Iran promised to retaliate. A spokesman for its powerful Revolutionary Guards threatened to “introduce new methods of warfare,” and an Iranian military spokesman, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, said “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe” if Iranian ports were threatened.

周一上午封锁正式生效后不久，伊朗誓言报复，其强大的革命卫队发言人威胁将“采用新的作战方式”，伊朗军方发言人易卜拉欣·佐勒法加里表示，若伊朗港口受到威胁，“波斯湾和阿曼湾的所有港口都将不再安全”。

The goal of the blockade is to prevent Iran from profiting from oil exports and to put pressure on its leaders to accept American conditions for ending more than a month of war. The U.S. military said that it would block ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas” while allowing other vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz on their way to other ports.

此次封锁的目的是阻止伊朗从石油出口中获利，向伊朗领导层施压，迫使其接受美国提出的结束这场持续一个多月战争的条件。美军称，将拦截所有“进出伊朗港口及沿海地区”的船只，但允许其他船只过境霍尔木兹海峡前往其他港口。

Before the United States moved to restrict traffic through the strait, it was Iran that had essentially shut it down. Iranian forces largely barred Western tankers and ships from transiting the strait, a Persian Gulf waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes.

在美国采取行动限制海峡通行之前，实际上是伊朗基本封锁了该海峡。伊朗军队此前基本禁止西方油轮和船只过境霍尔木兹海峡，这条波斯湾水道承担着全球约五分之一的海运石油运输量。

The price of oil has soared by more than 50 percent at times since the war began in late February. On Monday, the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, reached $102 a barrel and later settled at around $99.

自2月底战争爆发以来，油价曾一度飙升逾50%。周一，全球石油基准价布伦特原油价格一度涨至每桶102美元，随后收于约99美元。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们报道的其他内容：

• Israel: The 40-day war with Iran and the continued war with Hezbollah have left many Israelis despairing over how little they believe the fighting accomplished, particularly compared with what they had been promised, according to two new polls. Read more ›

· 以色列：两项最新民调显示，与伊朗持续40天的战争以及同真主党的持续冲突让许多以色列人深感失望。他们认为，这场战斗几乎没有取得任何成果，尤其是与此前他们得到的承诺相比。阅读更多

• Lebanon: The Israeli military said that its forces had encircled and raided the Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil, one of the largest communities near the border between the two countries. Israel’s attacks there have become a sticking point in the cease-fire negotiations, as Iran has demanded the truce extend to Lebanon. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are scheduled to meet in Washington on Tuesday for rare direct talks.

· 黎巴嫩：以色列军方称，其部队已包围并突袭了黎巴嫩城镇宾特朱拜勒，这是两国边境附近最大的聚居地之一。以色列在当地的攻势已成为停火谈判的症结所在，伊朗要求停火范围扩大至黎巴嫩。以色列和黎巴嫩驻美国大使定于周二在华盛顿举行罕见的直接会谈。

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Monday said that 2,089 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including 357 in a wave of Israeli strikes last Wednesday. In attacks attributed to Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. At least 22 people had been killed in Israel as of Sunday, as well as 12 Israeli soldiers fighting in Lebanon. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.

· 死亡人数：人权活动人士通讯社称，截至周三，伊朗至少有1701名平民遇难，其中包括254名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部周一表示，以色列与真主党最新一轮冲突已造成2089人死亡，其中357人死于上周三以色列的大规模空袭。在伊朗发动的袭击中，海湾国家至少有32人遇难。截至周日，以色列至少有22名平民死亡，另有12名以军士兵在黎巴嫩作战中阵亡。美军死亡人数为13名现役军人。

President Trump’s erratic behavior and extreme comments in recent days and weeks have turbocharged the crazy-like-a-fox-or-just-plain-crazy debate that has followed him on the national political stage for a decade.

特朗普总统近几天乃至近几周反复无常的行为和极端言论加剧了“他是装疯卖傻还是真疯了”的争论，这一争论十年来在国家政治舞台上与他如影随形。

A series of disjointed, hard-to-follow and sometimes-profane statements capped by his “a whole civilization will die tonight” threat to wipe Iran off the map last week and his head-spinning attack on the “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy” pope on Sunday night have left many with the impression of a deranged autocrat mad with power.

上周他威胁要从地图上抹去伊朗，宣称“今晚，整个文明将消亡”；周日晚间他又对教宗发起令人眼花缭乱的攻击，称其“在犯罪问题上软弱，在外交政策上糟糕”，这一系列前言不搭后语、令人费解且时而粗俗的言论让外界觉得他是一个被权力冲昏头脑、歇斯底里的独裁者。

The White House rejected such assessments, saying that Mr. Trump is sharp and keeping his opponents on edge. But the president’s eruptions have raised questions about America’s leadership in a time of war. While the country has had presidents whose capacity came under question before, most recently the octogenarian Joseph R. Biden Jr. as he aged demonstrably before the public’s eyes, never in modern times has the stability of a president been so publicly and forensically debated — and with such profound consequences.

白宫驳斥了此类评价，称特朗普思维敏锐，让对手们紧张不安。但总统的激烈言论引发了人们对战争时期美国领导力的质疑。尽管美国历史上也曾有过能力受到质疑的总统（最近的例子是年逾八旬、在公众眼中明显衰老的约瑟夫·拜登），但在现代历史上，还从未有过一位总统的精神稳定性被如此公开、如此细致地反复审视——而且其潜在后果也如此深远。

Democrats who have long challenged Mr. Trump’s psychological fitness have issued a fresh chorus of calls to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the president from power for disability. But it is not just a concern voiced by partisans on the left, late-night comics or mental health professionals making long-distance diagnoses. It can be heard now among retired generals, diplomats and foreign officials. And most strikingly, it can be heard now on the political right among onetime allies of the president.

长期以来一直质疑特朗普心理健康的民主党人再次呼吁援引第25修正案以总统失能为由将其免职。但这不仅仅是左翼党派人士、深夜脱口秀喜剧演员或进行远程诊断的心理健康专业人士的担忧。如今，在退休将领、外交官和外国官员中也能听到这种声音。最引人注目的是，如今在政治右翼阵营也能听到这种声音，来自那些一度是总统盟友的人。

Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican who recently broke with Mr. Trump, advocated using the 25th Amendment, telling CNN that threatening to destroy Iran’s civilization was “not tough rhetoric, it’s insanity.” Candace Owens, the far-right podcaster, called him “a genocidal lunatic.” Alex Jones, the conspiracy theorist and founder of Infowars, said Mr. Trump “does babble and sounds like the brain’s not doing too hot.”

最近与特朗普决裂的佐治亚州共和党前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林主张动用第25修正案，她告诉CNN，威胁摧毁伊朗文明“不是强硬言论，而是精神错乱”。极右翼播客主持人坎迪斯·欧文斯称他为“种族灭绝的疯子”。阴谋论者、Infowars创始人亚历克斯·琼斯表示，特朗普“确实在胡言乱语，听起来脑子不太正常”。

2022年，特朗普在自家位于新泽西州贝德明斯特的高尔夫俱乐部，身边是曾是他最坚定支持者之一的前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林和塔克·卡尔森。

Some of the questions about Mr. Trump’s soundness come from people who once worked with him and have since become critics. Even before the civilization post, Ty Cobb, a White House lawyer in Mr. Trump’s first term, told the journalist Jim Acosta that the president is “a man who is clearly insane” and that his recent string of belligerent, middle-of-the-night social media posts “highlights the level of his insanity.” Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary for Mr. Trump, wrote online last week that “he’s clearly not well.”

一些对特朗普精神是否健全的质疑来自曾与他共事、后来成为批评者的人。甚至在那条“文明灭亡”的发帖之前，特朗普第一任期的白宫律师泰·科布就曾对记者吉姆·阿科斯塔表示，这位总统“显然是个疯子”，而他近期一连串充满敌意、在深夜发布的社交媒体帖子“凸显了他的疯狂程度”。特朗普的前白宫新闻秘书史蒂芬妮·格里沙姆上周也在网上写道：“他显然状态不对。”

Mr. Trump fired back in a long, angry social media post that did not exactly radiate calm stability. “They have one thing in common, Low IQs,” he wrote of Ms. Owens, Mr. Jones, Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson. “They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too!” He threw the crazy charge back at them. “They’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some ‘free’ and cheap publicity.”

特朗普在社交媒体上发了一篇气急败坏的长帖予以回击，完全看不出他的冷静和稳定。“他们有一个共同点，就是智商低。”他在谈到欧文斯、琼斯、梅根·凯利和塔克·卡尔森时写道。“他们都是蠢人，他们自己知道，家人知道，其他人同样知道！”他还把“疯子”的指控回敬给对方。“他们就是疯子、捣乱分子，为了换取‘免费’而廉价的曝光，什么话都说得出来。”

The dissent on the right has not extended to Congress, where Republican lawmakers remain publicly loyal to the president, nor has it reached the cabinet, which would have to approve any invocation of the 25th Amendment, rendering that idea moot. But it reflects growing unease among Americans who in recent surveys have increasingly questioned the fitness of Mr. Trump, already the oldest president ever inaugurated, as he approaches his 80th birthday.

右翼内部的分歧尚未蔓延到国会，在那里共和党议员在公开场合仍然对总统保持忠诚；也没有扩展到内阁层面，而内阁必须同意才能援引第25条修正案，因此这一想法几乎没有实际意义。但这反映出美国民众日益增长的不安。随着特朗普即将迎来80岁生日，在最近的调查中，越来越多的民众质疑特朗普的身体状况是否适合履职。

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in February found that 61 percent of Americans think Mr. Trump has become more erratic with age and just 45 percent say he is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” down from 54 percent in 2023. Roughly half of Americans, 49 percent, deemed Mr. Trump too old to be president when asked in a YouGov poll in September, up from 34 percent in February 2024, while just 39 percent said he was not too old.

路透社/益普索今年2月的一项民调显示，61%的美国人认为特朗普随着年龄增长变得更加反复无常，只有45%的人认为他“思维敏锐，能够应对挑战”，这一比例低于2023年的54%。去年9月，YouGov的一项民调显示，约一半美国人（49%）认为特朗普年纪太大不适合当总统，高于2024年2月的34%，而只有39%的人认为他还不算太老。

Democrats have pressed the point in recent days. Mr. Trump is “an extremely sick person” (Senator Chuck Schumer of New York), “unhinged” and “out of control” (Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York) or, more bluntly, “batshit crazy” (Representative Ted Lieu of California). Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, wrote the White House physician requesting an evaluation, noting “signs consistent with dementia and cognitive decline” and “increasingly incoherent, volatile, profane, deranged, and threatening” tantrums.

民主党人近日加大了这一论调的力度。特朗普是“一个极其病态的人”（纽约州参议员查克·舒默）、“精神失控”“无法控制”（纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯），或者更直白地说，“疯得离谱”（加利福尼亚州众议员刘云平）。马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金则致信白宫医生，要求进行评估，并指出特朗普存在“与痴呆和认知能力下降相符的迹象”，以及“越来越语无伦次、情绪多变、言语粗俗、精神错乱和充满威胁”的脾气爆发。

参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默称特朗普是“一个极其病态的人”。

The president’s defenders pushed back. What critics call psychosis, they call strategy.

总统的支持者则予以反驳。批评者看来是精神异常的行为被他们称之为策略。

“Trump knows exactly what he is doing,” wrote Liz Peek, a columnist for the Hill and Fox News contributor. “Trump will continue to use maximalist (and sometimes outrageous) military and diplomatic pressure in his campaign to rid the Middle East of Iran’s near 50-year campaign of terror.”

“特朗普完全知道自己在做什么，”《国会山报》专栏作家、福克斯新闻评论员莉兹·皮克写道。“在消除伊朗近50年来恐怖活动的行动中，特朗普将继续使用最大限度的（有时甚至是极端的）军事和外交压力。”

Mr. Trump, who in his first term described himself as “a very stable genius” and has regularly boasted of passing cognitive tests meant to detect dementia, dismissed the criticism of his mental state when asked by a reporter last week.

特朗普在第一个任期内曾自称“精神状态非常稳定的天才”，并经常吹嘘自己通过了用于检测痴呆症的认知测试。上周，当被记者问及外界对其精神状态的批评时，他不以为然。

“I haven’t heard that,” he said. “But if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people like me because our country was being ripped off on trade, on everything, for many years until I came along. So if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people.”

“我没听说过，”他说。“但如果是这样，那你们就需要更多像我这样的人，因为在我出现之前，我们的国家在贸易、在所有事情上被占便宜了很多年。所以如果真是这样，那你们就需要更多像我这样的人。”

Asked for elaboration, Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said in an email: “President Trump’s sharpness, unmatched energy, and historic accessibility stand in stark contrast to what we saw during the past four years.” He argued that Mr. Biden had declined physically and mentally in that time and that The New York Times and other media had covered it up. (The Times covered Mr. Biden’s health and age extensively in multiple stories.)

在被要求进一步解释时，白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔透过电子邮件表示：“特朗普总统的敏锐头脑、无与伦比的精力以及史无前例的亲民形象与过去四年我们所看到的情况形成了鲜明对比。”他称拜登在那段时间里在身体和精神方面都出现了衰退，而《纽约时报》和其他媒体对此进行了掩盖。（《纽约时报》曾在多篇报道中广泛报道了拜登的健康和年龄问题。）

Mr. Trump’s stability has been a recurring issue since he first sought the presidency in 2016. Numerous psychiatrists and other mental health professionals have weighed in with their own opinions even without the opportunity to evaluate him. John F. Kelly, his longest serving White House chief of staff in the first term, even bought a book by 27 of those specialists called “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump,” in an effort to understand his boss and came to the conclusion that he was mentally ill.

自2016年首次竞选总统以来，特朗普的稳定性就一直是一个反复出现的问题。在没有机会对他进行评估的情况下，许多精神科医生和其他心理健康专业人士也发表了各自的看法。他第一任期内在任时间最长的白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利甚至购买了27位专家合著的《唐纳德·特朗普的危险案例》一书，试图了解他的老板，并最终得出结论：他有精神疾病。

2018年，特朗普第一任期的白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利将军在白宫椭圆形办公室。

Mr. Trump has at times tried to leverage his madman reputation. “Make them think I’m crazy,” he told Nikki Haley, his first-term ambassador to the United Nations, referring to the North Koreans. “Do you know what the secret is of a really good tweet?” he once asked William P. Barr, then his attorney general. “Just the right amount of crazy.”

特朗普有时也试图利用自己“疯子”的名声。“让他们觉得我疯了，”他曾对其第一任期的驻联合国大使妮基·黑利说，当时指的是朝鲜。“你知道一条真正成功的推文的秘诀是什么吗？”他曾问当时的司法部长威廉·巴尔，“就是恰到好处的疯狂。”

Yet Mr. Trump told The New York Post last week that this time, at least, he was not pretending. “I was willing to do it,” he said of his threat to destroy Iran’s civilization.

然而，上周特朗普告诉《纽约邮报》，至少这一次，他不是在假装。“我愿意这么做，”他在谈到摧毁伊朗文明的威胁时说道。

The public focus on Mr. Trump’s state of mind, goes further than with almost any past president. “Other than Nixon, there has never been this level of concern over time,” said Julian E. Zelizer, a Princeton historian and editor of a book on Mr. Trump’s first term.

公众对特朗普精神状态的关注超过了几乎所有历任总统。“除了尼克松之外，从未有过如此程度的持续担忧，”普林斯顿大学历史学家、一本关于特朗普第一任期著作的编辑朱利安·泽利泽说。

Indeed, the situation today eclipses even Nixon. Unlike in the 1970s, “so much of this is playing out in public,” especially with social media and cable television, Mr. Zelizer said. And, he added, “as a president who naturally disregards any guardrails or sense of decorum, Trump feels much freer, even than Nixon, to unleash his inner rage and to act on impulse.”

事实上，如今的情况甚至超过了尼克松。泽利泽说，与20世纪70年代不同，“如今它在很大程度上是在公众视野中展开的”，尤其是有了社交媒体和有线电视。他还说，“作为一位天生无视任何规则或礼仪规范的总统，特朗普觉得可以随心所欲地发泄怒火、冲动行事，甚至比尼克松还要肆无忌惮。”

In his second term, Mr. Trump seems even less restrained and more incoherent at times. He uses more profanity, speaks longer and regularly makes comments rooted in fantasy rather than fact. He keeps saying that his father was born in Germany when in fact he was born in the Bronx. He repeats an invented story about his uncle, an M.I.T. professor, telling him about teaching the terrorist known as the Unabomber.

在第二任期内，特朗普似乎更加缺乏约束，有时也更显语无伦次。他使用更多粗话，讲话时间更长，并且经常发表基于幻想而非事实的言论。他反复声称自己的父亲出生在德国，实际上却出生在布朗克斯。他还一再讲述一个编造的故事：他在麻省理工学院当教授的叔叔告诉他，自己教过那名被称为“大学航空炸弹客”的恐怖分子。

In recent days, he declared that “Iran’s New Regime President” was “much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors.” Except that Iran’s new president is the same as the old president. There has been no change in presidents. Mr. Trump may have meant the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, but he is considered even more hard-line than his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the war.

近日，他宣称“伊朗新政权总统”“没有前任那么激进，也更聪明”。但事实上，伊朗现任总统与之前是同一人，并没有换人。特朗普可能是指新的最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，但外界普遍认为他比其父亲、在战争中被杀的阿里·哈梅内伊更为强硬。

周日晚间，特朗普在返回白宫途中。

One difference from the first term is that there are few if any advisers like Mr. Kelly who consider it their responsibility to keep Mr. Trump from going too far. “When he does what he does, everyone around him keeps their eyes to the floor and says nothing,” Mr. Zelizer said. “Unlike the first term, they don’t even seem to maneuver behind the scenes to stop him.”

与第一任期相比的一个不同之处在于，如今几乎没有像约翰·凯利那样认为有责任阻止特朗普走得太远的顾问。“当他那样行事时，他身边的人都低着头，一言不发，”泽利泽说，“不像第一任期，他们现在甚至似乎连在幕后悄悄设法阻止都不做了。”

But there may be political latitude for it with his base. “There is an element of American politics in the age of polarization, particularly within the G.O.P., that likes this style of leadership,” Mr. Zelizer said. “What can be more anti-establishment than someone who is willing to be out of control?”

不过，在其支持者群体中，这种做法或许仍有政治空间。“在两极分化的时代，美国政治中——尤其是在共和党内部——有一部分人就是喜欢这种领导风格，”泽利泽说。“还有什么比一个愿意失控的人更反建制的呢？”

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary was for years Europe’s pre-eminent political wizard, a leader endowed with uncanny insight into his people’s desires and fears and the ability to steer political tides.

匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班多年来一直是欧洲首屈一指的政治巫师，这位领导人仿佛拥有看穿民众欲望与恐惧的超凡洞察力，还能精准操控政治风向。

He won four thumping election victories in a row — more than any other current European Union leader — and declared liberal democracy passé long before President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia pronounced it finished, in 2019, or President Trump first won the White House, in 2016.

他连续四次赢得压倒性选举胜利，次数超过任何一位现任欧盟领导人。早在2019年俄罗斯总统普京宣称自由民主已终结、2016年特朗普首次入主白宫之前，他就早已断言自由民主已然过时。

On Sunday, it became clear that Mr. Orban had lost his magic.

然而周日，欧尔班的魔力显然消失了。

Peter Magyar, the opposition leader whose Tisza party scored a crushing victory in Hungary’s general election, told cheering crowds that they had ushered in “regime change.”

反对党领袖彼得·毛焦尔带领其蒂萨党在匈牙利大选中取得碾压性胜利，他对欢呼的人群表示，他们迎来了“政权更迭”。

“You have worked a miracle,” he said. “Hungary has written history.”

“你们创造了奇迹，”他说。“匈牙利书写了历史。”

What had really happened, however, was that Mr. Orban had failed to rewrite a basic rule of politics, particularly for populists: You have to be popular to win elections.

但真正发生的是，欧尔班未能改写一条最基本的政治法则——对民粹主义者而言尤其如此：要赢得选举，你必须得民心。

The result on Sunday did not represent an ideological earthquake or a sudden swerve among Hungarians from right to left, but rather something highly personal. Voters toppled a strongman leader who, increasingly cocooned in the flattery of sycophants and the praise of a sprawling propaganda machine, had lost his touch.

周日的选举结果并非意识形态的大地震，也不是匈牙利民众突然从右翼转向左翼，更多是出于个人化的因素。选民推翻了这位强人领导人：他日益被阿谀奉承者的吹捧和庞大宣传机器的赞美层层包裹，早已失去了对民意的感知。

“The fall of the Orban regime feels as sudden and cataclysmic as the collapse of communism in 1989,” said Imre Karacs, a veteran journalist who covered the unraveling of communist governments at that time.

“欧尔班政权的倒台感觉和1989年共产主义的崩溃一样突然、一样具有颠覆性，”资深记者伊姆雷·卡拉奇说，他当年曾报道过各国共产党政府的垮台。

“But both events seemed inevitable to people who dared to believe,” he added.

“但对于那些敢于相信的人来说，这两件事似乎都是不可避免的，”他还说。

反对党领袖彼得·毛焦尔领导的蒂萨党在匈牙利大选中取得了压倒性胜利，图为他于3月在凯斯特海伊参加竞选集会。

Mr. Orban’s spell was broken by Mr. Magyar, a conservative former Orban loyalist who shares many of the departing prime minister’s views on matters like immigration. But Mr. Magyar offered a less pugnacious, less divisive style, promising a “humane” Hungary at peace with itself and the European Union.

打破欧尔班魔咒的毛焦尔本身是一名保守派，曾是欧尔班的忠实支持者，在移民等诸多问题上与即将卸任的总理观点一致。但毛焦尔展现出一种更温和、不那么分裂的风格，承诺打造一个与自身及欧盟和平共处的“人性化”匈牙利。

Tisza won 138 seats in Parliament — more than two-thirds of the total — and left Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party a shellshocked rump with just 55. The win delivered a slap in the face to President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and right-wing Europeans like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, all of whom had enthusiastically endorsed Mr. Orban and jumped into Hungary’s election campaign on his behalf.

蒂萨党赢得了议会138个席位——超过总席位的三分之二，而欧尔班的青民盟惨败，仅获得55席，沦为元气大伤的少数派。这场胜利对于特朗普总统、副总统万斯以及荷兰的海尔特·维尔德斯等欧洲右翼人士来说无疑是一记耳光，他们都曾热情支持欧尔班，并且为他在匈牙利的竞选造势。

In the end, Hungary’s pioneer of right-wing populism stopped being popular. The same had happened earlier to Janez Jansa, a three-time prime minister in Slovenia and a fervent admirer of Mr. Orban who in 2022 lost a parliamentary election.

最终，这位匈牙利右翼民粹主义的先驱失去了民心。同样的命运此前也降临在斯洛文尼亚三度担任总理的亚内兹·扬沙身上，他是欧尔班的狂热崇拜者，在2022年输掉了议会选举。

Mr. Orban and other right-wing populists who have floundered in office ignored the Russian maxim that politics always involves tension between “the television” — propaganda — and “the refrigerator” — people’s lived reality.

欧尔班和其他在任期间陷入困境的右翼民粹主义者都忽略了一句俄罗斯政治格言：政治永远是“电视”（即宣传）与“冰箱”（即民众现实生活）之间的博弈。

It was a message reinforced on Monday by Mr. Magyar, who said “for years, Viktor Orban has paid no attention to the problems affecting Hungarians.”

毛焦尔周一也重申了这一点，他说：“多年来，维克托·欧尔班从未关注过匈牙利民众面临的实际问题。”

“We have never heard him speak about health care, education or cost-of-living issues,” he said. “He was playing a kind of five-dimensional chess game. And this, among other things, was likely one of the reasons for his defeat.”

“我们从没听过他谈论医疗、教育或生活成本问题，”毛焦尔说。“他一直在下所谓的五维国际象棋。而这，加上其他因素，很可能就是他败选的原因之一。”

Mr. Orban put all his chips on the television, deploying a vast apparatus of Fidesz-friendly media outlets to vilify his opponents. Mr. Magyar was variously presented as a crook, as a Ukrainian puppet, as a sex maniac with a taste for teenagers and as an abusive husband, while President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was demonized as an existential menace who would bring war to Hungary if Mr. Magyar won.

欧尔班把所有筹码都押在“电视”上，动用庞大的亲青民盟媒体机器抹黑对手。毛焦尔被描绘成骗子、乌克兰傀儡、嗜好未成年少女的性变态和家暴丈夫；乌克兰总统泽连斯基则被妖魔化为致命威胁，欧尔班声称，如果毛焦尔当选，泽连斯基就会把战争带到匈牙利。

After Mr. Orban’s landslide election victory in 2022, he promised a “golden age” for Hungary’s economy. But, deformed by corruption, the country tipped into recession. Although slightly less sickly now, Hungary still has the slowest growth in the region. Unemployment is at a 10-year high.

2022年欧尔班以压倒性优势连任后，曾承诺为匈牙利经济带来“黄金时代”。但在腐败的侵蚀下，该国陷入了经济衰退。尽管如今略有好转，匈牙利仍是该地区经济增长最慢的国家，失业率也创下了10年来的新高。

“The gap between the television and the fridge becomes unbridgeable,” said David Pressman, a former U.S. ambassador to Hungary under the Biden administration and a frequent target for Mr. Orban’s propaganda machine.

“电视与冰箱之间的鸿沟已经变得无法逾越，”拜登政府时期的前美国驻匈牙利大使戴维·普雷斯曼说，他本人也是欧尔班宣传机器的频繁攻击目标。

周日，布达佩斯庆祝蒂萨党取得压倒性胜利的人群。

Even some of those sympathetic to Mr. Orban had voiced dismay before the election that he was paying so little attention to the economic woes of ordinary Hungarians, including dilapidated schools and hospitals without toilet paper. At a panel discussion last week organized by the Danube Institute, one of a galaxy of government-funded think tanks set up to sing Mr. Orban’s praises, premonitions of the approaching defeat filled the room.

甚至一些原本同情欧尔班的人在选举前也对他漠视普通匈牙利人的经济困境表示失望——包括破败的学校，以及连卫生纸都供应不足的医院。上周，由政府资助、专门为欧尔班唱赞歌的众多智库之一多瑙河研究所举办了一场小组讨论会，现场弥漫着败选将至的预感。

John Fund, a writer for National Review, complained that Mr. Orban was “fighting the last war,” referring to the 2022 election campaign, which Fidesz won by stoking fears that Hungary would be dragged into the Ukraine war if Mr. Orban was not in charge.

《国家评论》撰稿人约翰·范德抱怨欧尔班在“打上一场战争”，他指的是2022年大选，当时青民盟煽动“欧尔班下台就会把匈牙利拖入乌克兰战争”的恐惧情绪，从而赢得了选举。

“This is not what most people will be voting on. They will be voting on whether their lives will get better,” Mr. Fund said. “The average Hungarian has been standing still.”

“这根本不是大多数选民关心的问题，他们投票看的是自己的生活会不会变好，”范德说。“普通匈牙利人的生活水平一直停滞不前。”

Mr. Orban blamed Hungary’s economic troubles on Ukraine and the European Union, as did Mr. Vance, who visited Budapest last week in a last-ditch effort to lift the Hungarian leader’s fortunes. “Brussels bureaucrats,” Mr. Vance said, standing next to Mr. Orban, had “tried to destroy the Hungarian economy” to sway the election on Sunday “because they hate this guy.”

欧尔班将匈牙利的经济困境归咎于乌克兰和欧盟，上周前往布达佩斯、试图在最后关头帮这位匈牙利领导人扭转选情不利局面的万斯也持同样观点。万斯站在欧尔班身边说：“布鲁塞尔的官僚们试图摧毁匈牙利经济”，以便影响周日的选举，“只因为他们恨这个人。”

Most officials in Brussels and European leaders didn’t like Mr. Orban, but the bigger problem was that neither did many Hungarian voters, including onetime supporters who tired of his fear mongering about Ukraine and who grew frustrated by the country’s grandiose corruption — the worst in the European Union, according to Transparency International — and by his claims that life was getting ever better.

布鲁塞尔的大多数官员和欧洲领导人确实不喜欢欧尔班，但更大的问题是，许多匈牙利选民也不再喜欢他了——包括曾经的支持者。他们厌倦了他无休止地渲染乌克兰威胁，对匈牙利触目惊心的腐败（据透明国际组织统计，该国的腐败情况是欧盟最严重的）感到愤怒，更对他声称生活越来越好的说法忍无可忍。

For many voters, Mr. Magyar’s biggest asset was not his policies on education, health care or the European Union, which he never elaborated on in any detail, but that he was not Mr. Orban.

对许多选民来说，毛焦尔最大的优势并非他从未详细阐述过的教育、医疗或欧盟政策，而是因为他不是欧尔班。

工作人员为毛焦尔于周一在布达佩斯举行的新闻发布会做准备。

Mr. Orban even had what some called a “Ceausescu moment,” a reference to December 1989, when the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu realized in disbelief that a crowd gathered to cheer him was actually booing. Opposition-friendly news media published photographs and videos of Mr. Orban looking stunned — and then very angry — when people started booing him at a campaign rally in the western city of Gyor.

欧尔班甚至经历了被一些人称为“齐奥塞斯库时刻”的瞬间，这指的是1989年12月，罗马尼亚独裁者尼古拉·齐奥塞斯库难以置信地发现，原本应该聚集起来为他欢呼的人群，其实是在嘘他。亲反对党的媒体发布了照片和视频，显示在匈牙利西部城市杰尔的一场竞选集会上，当民众开始发出嘘声时，欧尔班先是一脸错愕，随即勃然大怒。

Mr. Orban was never a dictator — he conceded defeat on Sunday with grace and dignity — but he did undermine democratic norms.

欧尔班从来不是独裁者——周日，他体面而有尊严地承认了败选，但他确实破坏了民主规范。

During his 16 years in power, he remade Hungary in his own image, eliminating many checks and balances by stacking the judicial system and nominally independent agencies with Fidesz loyalists, and taking control of most news outlets. In 2014, he gave this construct a name: “an illiberal state, a non-liberal state.”

在16年的执政生涯中，他按照自己的形象重塑了匈牙利：在司法系统和名义上独立的机构中安插青民盟亲信，从而废除了诸多权力制衡机制，并掌控了绝大多数新闻媒体。2014年，他将这种体制命名为“非自由派国家，非自由主义国家”。

It was a model he sought to export but, according to a pre-election analysis by the Cato Institute, an American research group, “Far from being a model, Orbán’s Hungary is a cautionary tale of what results from an unrestrained executive with strongly centralized power, crony capitalism and the systematic dismantling of the rule of law.”

他曾试图将这一模式输出到全世界，但美国智库卡托研究所的选前分析指出：“欧尔班治下的匈牙利绝非什么典范，而是一个警示故事，它揭示了行政权力的不受约束和高度集中、裙带资本主义和对法治的系统性破坏会带来怎样的后果。”

Until 2024, Mr. Magyar was part of this system, and, Mr. Karacs, the journalist, said that his views were “not that distant from mainstream Fidesz apparatchiks — which is what he was just two years ago.”

直到2024年，毛焦尔还是这个体制的一部分。记者卡拉奇说，他的观点“与青民盟主流官僚相去不远——两年前他本人就是其中一员”。

Leftists and liberals, Mr. Karacs added, had “swallowed their misgivings for the sake of the cause: Get rid of Orban.”

卡拉奇还说，左翼和自由派人士“为了推翻欧尔班这个共同的目标，都咽下了自己的疑虑”。

Four years ago Malaysia waived import taxes on electric cars, part of a plan to move away from fossil fuels.

四年前，马来西亚取消了电动车的进口关税，这是该国逐步淘汰化石燃料计划的一部分。

The country was not making electric vehicles at the time, and Chinese automakers started shipping models like the BYD Atto 3 by the thousands. Soon Chinese companies came to dominate Malaysia’s small but growing E.V. market.

当时它自己并不生产电动车，而中国汽车制造商开始将比亚迪Atto 3这样的车型成千上万地运往这里。很快，中国企业便主导了马来西亚规模虽小但不断增长的电动车市场。

But the import-tax holiday ended on Dec. 31, 2025. More recently the Malaysian government announced new restrictions on imported cars. The minimum sale price of imported E.V.s is being doubled to 200,000 ringgit or about $50,000, according to Johari Abdul Ghani, Malaysia’s trade minister.

但进口免税政策已于2025年12月31日结束。最近，马来西亚政府又宣布了对进口汽车的新限制措施。根据马来西亚贸易部长佐哈里·阿卜杜尔·甘尼的说法，进口电动车的最低售价将被提高一倍至20万林吉特（约合5万美元）。

The aim is to protect jobs because Malaysia’s own carmakers are now making E.V.s. The government is hoping to push Chinese companies to assemble and manufacture vehicles in Malaysia.

此举旨在保护就业，因为马来西亚本土汽车制造商现在开始生产电动汽车了。政府希望推动中国企业在马来西亚组装和制造汽车。

China has flooded countries around the world with exports, often at low prices. The policy changes in Malaysia show how China’s manufacturing heft can force governments to make tough choices between promoting its auto industry and creating jobs, while protecting homegrown companies from foreign competition.

中国经常以低廉的价格向世界各国大量出口。马来西亚的政策变化表明，中国的制造业实力如何迫使各国政府在保护本土企业免受外国竞争的同时，不得不在促进本国汽车产业发展与创造就业之间做出艰难抉择

Two of the Chinese carmakers operating in Malaysia, BYD and Chery, would benefit from tax incentives the government is offering to companies that set up assembly plants. The companies will also face Malaysian government rules that apply to all foreign E.V. makers: Only 20 percent of the cars the plants make can be sold in Malaysia — the rest must be exported — and have to be sold at a minimum price of 100,000 ringgit.

在马来西亚运营的两家中国汽车制造商比亚迪和奇瑞将从政府为设立组装厂的企业提供的税收优惠中受益。同时，这些公司也将受到适用于所有外国电动车制造商的规定约束：工厂生产的汽车中，只有20%可以在马来西亚销售，其余必须出口；并且最低售价不得低于10万林吉特。

“In the long run, we want to ensure that manufacturers produce car components in Malaysia for assembly, rather than relying heavily on imports,” Mr. Johari said in an interview.

“从长远来看，我们想确保制造商在马来西亚生产汽车零部件用于组装，而不是高度依赖进口，”佐哈里·阿卜杜尔·甘尼在接受采访时表示。

2024年，比亚迪出口汽车在中国烟台港等待装船。

It was unclear if BYD, which was slated to build its assembly plant in the state of Perak, will go forward with its plans. The company said it is “still reviewing all possibilities and aligning internally,” declining to elaborate.

目前尚不清楚原计划在霹雳州建组装厂的比亚迪是否会继续推进其计划。该公司表示“仍在评估所有可能性并进行内部协调”，拒绝进一步说明。

Chery, however, is moving forward with its plans to build an assembly plant on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, the capital city.

不过，奇瑞正推进其在首都吉隆坡郊区建组装厂的计划。

Men Lin Bo, an executive vice president at Chery Corporate Malaysia, said the company had begun building the facility, which will produce gas-electric hybrid and gasoline-fueled cars. “Construction at the site is ongoing and progressing well. We hope to produce some cars by this year,” he said.

奇瑞马来西亚公司执行副总裁门林波表示，公司已开始建厂，该工厂将生产油电混合动力车和汽油车。“项目建设正在进行中，进展顺利。我们希望今年能生产出部分汽车，”他说。

The rules limiting domestic sales do not apply to foreign manufacturers that use the three existing assembly plants in Malaysia, the trade ministry said.

马来西亚贸易部表示，限制本地销售的规定不适用于使用马来西亚现有三家组装厂的外国制造商。

“E.V. makers will be considering whether it makes sense to set up manufacturing facilities in Malaysia if they already have plants elsewhere in Southeast Asia,” said Ramone Mikgail Kok, the investment research and advisory head at Hong Leong Bank based in Kuala Lumpur.

“如果汽车制造商在东南亚其他地方已有工厂，它们会考虑在马来西亚设立制造设施是否划算，”驻吉隆坡的丰隆银行投资研究与咨询主管拉莫内·米克高尔·郭表示。

The rise of Chinese automakers can be seen across Malaysia’s car districts. An area about 20 minutes from Kuala Lumpur, which was long dominated by Japanese and European brands, now includes several Chinese automakers.

在马来西亚各地的汽车销售商圈，中国车企的崛起已非常明显。在距离吉隆坡约20分钟车程的一片销售区域，过去长期由日本和欧洲品牌主导，如今已出现多家中国汽车厂商。

Malaysia’s biggest domestic carmakers, Proton and Perodua, each introduced electric vehicle models last year. Perodua spent over $200 million developing the QV-E, its first electric model. Proton, in the first three months of the year, sold 6,701 of its e.MAS 5 electric car, far outpacing the 999 units of BYD’s Atto 3. Geely, a Chinese automaker, owns 49.9 percent of Proton.

马来西亚两大本土车企Proton和Perodua去年都推出了电动车车型。Perodua投入超过2亿美元开发其首款电动车QV-E。今年前三个月，Proton售出了6701辆e.MAS 5电动车，远高于比亚迪Atto 3的999辆。中国车企吉利持有Proton 49.9%的股份。

President Trump’s decision to blockade all Iranian shipments out of or into the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning sets up the next great test in the Iran war: Which side can endure more economic pain, Tehran’s new leadership or Mr. Trump himself?

特朗普总统决定从周一上午开始封锁进出霍尔木兹海峡的所有伊朗船只，这构成了伊朗战争中的下一个重大考验：究竟谁更能承受经济痛苦，德黑兰的新领导层还是特朗普本人？

Almost everything about how this new turn in the war plays out is likely to look very different than what has unfolded so far.

这场战争出现的新转折可能在各个方面都与此前的情况截然不同。

Instead of directing missiles and bombs at military sites, missile emplacements and Iran’s defense industry, Mr. Trump will try to choke off the country’s lifeblood, the oil that accounts for more than 50 percent of its exports and just about all of the government’s revenue.

特朗普不会再将导弹和炸弹对准军事基地、导弹阵地和伊朗的国防工业，而是试图扼杀该国的命脉——占其出口一半以上的石油，几乎是其政府收入的全部来源。

The president’s first hope, administration officials said on Sunday, is to force the government to surrender to the terms that Vice President JD Vance laid out in peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan — and that Iran rejected, just as it did in negotiations in Geneva before the war began on Feb. 28. The list of terms starts with Iran’s agreement to turn over every ounce of its uranium stockpile, permanently dismantle its huge infrastructure for producing nuclear fuel and give up its claims to regulate traffic in the strait.

政府官员周日表示，总统首先希望的是迫使其政府接受万斯副总统在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡和平谈判中提出的条件——和2月28日战争开始前拒绝日内瓦谈判的条件一样，伊朗对此已经予以拒绝。首要的条件是伊朗同意交出所有的铀储备，永久拆除其庞大的核燃料生产基础设施，并放弃其监管海峡交通的主张。

Failing an Iranian capitulation, Mr. Trump appears to still harbor the hope he expressed the first evening of the war: that a restive Iranian populace will rise up and overthrow the military-clerical regime that has guided the country since the revolution in 1979. But engineering that outcome is no easier than it was a month and a half ago.

如果伊朗不投降，特朗普似乎仍然抱有他在战争第一晚表达的希望：躁动的伊朗民众将奋起推翻自1979年革命以来一直统治该国的军人-神权政权。但如今要促成这一结果，并不比一个半月前更容易。

For its part, Iran’s strategy appears to be one of waging the conflict in the global markets, where Tehran has discovered new powers. Acutely aware that they lost the military contest in the first five weeks, but performed above expectations in the information arena and in terrorizing their neighbors with well-aimed missile and drone strikes, the Iranians are betting that Mr. Trump’s tolerance for political pain is limited.

就伊朗而言，其战略似乎是在全球市场上进行这场冲突，德黑兰在那里发现了新的力量。伊朗人敏锐地意识到他们在前五周输掉了军事竞赛，但在信息领域和以精准导弹和无人机袭击恐吓邻国方面表现超出预期，他们打赌特朗普对政治痛苦的容忍度是有限的。

If no Iranian oil gets through the strait, prices could keep rising over time — some companies say they are planning for $175 a barrel. The Iranians understand the potential political effects of continued inflation in the United States less than seven months before midterm elections.

如果没有伊朗石油通过海峡，油价可能会随着时间的推移而持续上涨——一些公司表示他们正在为每桶175美元的价格做准备。伊朗人明白，在中期选举前不到七个月，美国持续通胀可能带来的政治影响。

“Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4 to $5 gas,” Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned American consumers after the failure of the talks he led with Mr. Vance. As of Monday morning, with the naval blockade about to begin, the markets did not seem especially panicked: Brent crude oil prices rose about 6 percent, to just above $101 a barrel, around the time the blockade was imposed, but were still below where they were before the cease-fire was declared last week.

“很快你们就会怀念四到五美元的汽油了，”伊朗首席谈判代表、议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫在与美国副总统万斯的谈判失败后，如此警告美国消费者。截至周一上午，随着海军封锁即将开始，市场似乎并没有特别恐慌：在封锁实施前后，布伦特原油价格上涨约6%，至略高于每桶101美元，但仍低于上周宣布停火前的水平。

Mr. Trump, for his part, is dialing back his previous claim that as the shooting stops, gas prices will drop. He told Fox News on Sunday that prices “should be around the same” during the midterms and might be “a little bit higher.” That is the exact fear of many Republican candidates.

特朗普本人则收回了他此前关于随着枪声停止汽油价格将会下跌的说法。他周日告诉福克斯新闻，中期选举期间的油价“应该差不多”，可能会“稍微高一点”。这正是许多共和党候选人所担心的。

This is uncharted territory. Like President John F. Kennedy’s “quarantine” of Cuba in 1962, intended to keep the Soviets from bringing nuclear weapons onto Cuban soil, it is impossible to know beforehand how this will play out. Back then, Kennedy and his advisers watched anxiously to see if the Soviets would try to “run the line” and risk military confrontation with the U.S. Navy or whether they would retreat, negotiate and find a face-saving way out.

这是一片未知的领域。就像约翰·F·肯尼迪总统在1962年对古巴进行“隔离”以求阻止苏联在古巴领土部署核武器一样，事情究竟会发展成什么样，事先很难确知。当时，肯尼迪和他的顾问们焦急地观察，看苏联人是会试图“突破封锁”，甘冒与美国海军发生军事对抗的风险，还是会撤退、谈判并找到保全面子的出路。

The Soviet leader at the time, Nikita Khrushchev, chose to back off.

当时的苏联领导人尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫选择了退让。

Now that the blockade on any ships leaving or destined for Iranian ports has gone into effect, it may soon become clear whether the new ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps make the same choice. But without a navy, Iran knows it has virtually no chance in a direct confrontation.

现在对进出伊朗港口的一切船只进行的封锁已经生效，新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊和伊斯兰革命卫队是否会做出同样的选择，可能很快就会明朗。但由于没有海军，伊朗知道自己在直接对抗中几乎毫无胜算。

For Mr. Trump, this is yet another reversal of strategy. A few weeks ago, he decided to allow Iran to sell oil that was already at sea, in hopes of easing supply shortages. But the effects on prices were minimal. And Mr. Trump looked as though he were conducting a halfhearted war, bombing Iran while allowing it to profit. And the country's imposition of tolls on traffic going through the strait meant that a new revenue stream was opening up for Tehran at the moment it needed it most.

对特朗普来说，这又是一次战略逆转。几周前，他决定允许伊朗出售已经在海上的石油，希望能缓解供应短缺。但对价格的影响微乎其微。而且特朗普看起来像是在进行一场半心半意的战争，一边轰炸伊朗，一边允许其获利。该国对通过海峡的交通征收通行费，意味着在德黑兰最需要的时候，一个新的收入来源正在打开。

“The current situation, in which Iran gets to deny use of the strait to all except its friends or those who pay up, is untenable,” said Richard Haass, a former Republican senior national security official and the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who was among the first to advocate a blockade strategy.

“目前的局面是，伊朗拒绝除其朋友或付费者以外的所有人使用海峡，这是不可持续的，”理查德·哈斯说，他曾是共和党高级国家安全官员和前外交关系委员会主席，也是最早提倡封锁战略的人之一。

“It gets rich while others get poor,” he continued. “A blockade adds to the economic pressure on Iran that already existed before the war and was made worse by the war. If they want to sell their oil, they need to reopen the strait to all.”

“它变富了，而别人变穷，”他接着说。“封锁增加了战前就已存在、并因战争而恶化的对伊朗的经济压力。如果他们想出售石油，就需要向所有人重新开放海峡。”

It might work. But there is also the possibility that Iran’s reaction will be to resume attacks on energy facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and perhaps even Saudi Arabia. In that scenario, Iran would essentially say that if it cannot ship oil, its Arab neighbors will not be able to, either.

这可能会奏效。但也有可能伊朗的反应将是恢复对阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特甚至沙特阿拉伯能源设施的袭击。在这种情况下，伊朗实质上是在说，如果它不能运输石油，其阿拉伯邻国也不能。

As with so much in this war, there was confusion on Sunday about what, exactly, was subject to blockade. Mr. Trump’s initial social media post declared a “complete” blockade on all traffic in and out of the strait. But as described in a news release on Sunday from U.S. Central Command, and later by Mr. Trump himself, the blockade applies only to ships going to or from Iranian ports. Cargo from other Gulf states will be allowed to pass, assuming they are willing to take the risk of hitting mines or being attacked by Iranian speedboats or drones. It was also unclear how the United States would determine which ships had paid a toll to the Iranians.

与这场战争中的许多情况一样，究竟哪些船会被封锁，直到周日仍存在困惑。特朗普最初的社交媒体帖子宣布对进出海峡的所有交通实施“完全”封锁。但正如美国中央司令部周日的新闻稿以及后来特朗普本人所描述的那样，封锁仅适用于进出伊朗港口的船只。来自其他海湾国家的货物将被允许通过，前提是它们愿意承担触雷或被伊朗快艇或无人机袭击的风险。至于美国将如何确定哪些船只向伊朗人支付了通行费，目前也不得而知。

The strait has been shuttered before, of course, but history does not provide much guidance that fits the current situation.

当然，海峡以前也曾关闭过，但历史并没有提供多少适合当前情况的指导。

As Mr. Haass, along with the historians Niall Ferguson and Philip Zelikow noted in The Free Press last week, the Portuguese first took control of the strait 519 years ago and charged a toll. They were ousted by Persian and British forces. Half a millennium later, the Portuguese and the British made clear that the attack on Iran, even in the name of preventing it from getting within reach of a nuclear weapon, was ill considered.

正如哈斯与历史学家尼尔·弗格森、菲利普·泽利科上周在《自由报》中指出的那样，最早是葡萄牙人在519年前控制了海峡并收取通行费。他们被波斯和英国军队驱逐。五个世纪后的葡萄牙人和英国人明确表示，即使是以防止伊朗获得核武器为名攻击伊朗，也是不明智的。

In the early 1950s, Britain blockaded the strait after Iran’s prime minister at the time, Mohammad Mossadegh, nationalized the country’s oil industry. He was overthrown in a coup that was partly supported by the C.I.A., a covert intervention that the Iranians resent to this day and that history has not treated kindly.

20世纪50年代初，在当时的伊朗总理穆罕默德·摩萨台将该国石油工业国有化后，英国封锁了海峡。摩萨台在一次部分由中央情报局支持的政变中被推翻，伊朗人至今仍对此耿耿于怀，其历史评价也趋于负面。

And there were episodic disruptions during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

20世纪80年代的两伊战争期间也曾发生过间歇性的中断。

But none of those experiences is a very close analog to the complex confrontation that is currently unfolding. If the blockade is short-lived and ends Iran’s ability to extort the global economy, Mr. Trump’s gamble may well look like a savvy turning of the tables. And if the Iranian leadership gives in to his demands, it may ratify Mr. Trump’s conclusion that the new leadership is more “reasonable” than the last.

但这些经历都不是当前正在展开的复杂对抗的近似类比。如果封锁是短暂的，并终结了伊朗勒索全球经济的能力，特朗普的赌博很可能看起来像是一次精明的扭转局势之举。如果伊朗领导层屈服于他的要求，这可能会证实特朗普的结论，即新领导层比上一届更“通情达理”。

If the blockade drags on, though, Mr. Trump runs the risk of looking once again as though he failed to see around corners, anticipating what could go wrong with an attack on what appeared to be a weakened Iran. The war that he thought might last only days is entering its seventh week. And for the global economy, the hard part is not close to over.

但如果封锁拖长，特朗普就有可能再次显得好像没能未卜先知，没能预料到对一个看似被削弱的伊朗发动攻击可能会出现的问题。这场他以为可能只持续几天的战争即将进入第七周。而对于全球经济来说，艰难的部分还远未结束。

The war in the Middle East has disrupted oil and gas supplies, jolting governments around the world to confront the urgent need for power grids that can withstand future shocks.

中东战争扰乱了石油和天然气供应，震动了世界各国政府，让它们不得不面对一个迫切需求：建设能够抵御未来冲击的电力网络。

But for many countries, the push to build grids based on renewable energy is creating a new dependence on technology from China.

但对许多国家来说，推动基于可再生能源的电网建设却意味着形成一种对中国技术的新依赖。

Chinese companies dominate the manufacturing of nearly every component of a modern grid, including solar panels, high-voltage cables, transformers and batteries that store energy for later use. Even before the war in Iran, they were expanding abroad, helping countries build grids designed to meet the heavy electricity demands of artificial intelligence.

中国公司在现代电网几乎所有组件的制造领域占据主导地位，包括太阳能电池板、高压电缆、变压器，以及用于储存能源以备后用的电池。甚至在伊朗战争爆发之前，这些企业就已在海外扩张，帮助各国建设能够满足人工智能高耗电需求的电网。

For decades, China has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into green energy, making it a cornerstone of the country’s drive for energy independence. It also blocked foreign companies from competing in large segments of its domestic market, such as manufacturing wind turbines and electric car batteries, to ensure that Chinese companies could grow into giants.

数十年来，中国投入数千亿美元发展绿色能源，将其作为国家能源独立战略的基石。它还限制外国公司在国内市场的大部分领域竞争（如风力涡轮机和电动汽车电池制造），以确保中国企业成长为巨头。

Now the war with Iran has laid bare the risks of reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas. Countries are realizing that all paths to renewable power run through China and its exporters.

如今，与伊朗的战争暴露了依赖中东石油和天然气的风险。各国意识到，通往可再生能源的所有道路都经过中国及其出口商。

Even if a cease-fire between the United States and Iran helps ease disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the shock has already grabbed the attention of governments worldwide. Faced with energy shortages, they are accelerating efforts to upgrade their power grids, bringing them to the doorstep of Chinese companies eager to supply them.

即使美国与伊朗达成停火有助于缓解霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断，这一冲击已引起全球各国政府的关注。面对能源短缺，它们正在加速升级电力网络的努力，这将它们直接带到乐意供货的中国公司门口。

“This is the right time for a shock like the war in Iran to suddenly catalyze even more investment and interest in renewables,” said Cory Combs, an associate director at Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.

“伊朗战争这样的冲击来得正是时候，突然催化了对可再生能源的更多投资和兴趣，”研究和咨询公司策纬咨询副总监科里·库姆斯说。

中国是大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴，也是稀土金属和太阳能电池板等制造业必需品的主要或近乎独家供应商。

Chinese companies increasingly produce the most affordable and most efficient renewable energy and grid storage technologies, Mr. Combs said. “You’re not going to compete with China at this point.”

库姆斯表示，中国公司越来越能生产出最实惠、最高效的可再生能源和电网储能技术。“此时此刻，你无法与中国竞争。”

Last month, the Philippines said it was working to bring 22 new renewable power plants online within weeks to shore up grid stability.

上个月，菲律宾表示正努力在数周内让22座新的可再生能源发电厂并网，以增强电网稳定性。

Already a major destination for Chinese investment in energy infrastructure, Brazil took bids in late March for the construction of new power plants, and is set to do so again this month for large-scale battery storage.

作为中国能源基础设施投资的主要目的地，巴西在3月底招标建设新的发电厂，并计划本月再次招标大规模电池储能项目。

“Brazil needs technology in this area, and China has a lot to contribute,” said Larissa Wachholz, a partner at Vallya, a firm that consults with Chinese and other international companies doing business in Brazil. The war in the Middle East has been “a huge reminder that the world will need even more energy,” she said.

“巴西在这个领域需要技术，而中国有很多可以贡献，”为中国及其他国际企业在巴西开展业务的咨询公司Vallya的合伙人拉里萨·瓦霍尔茨说。她表示，中东战争“是一个巨大的提醒：世界将需要更多能源”。

China is the main trading partner for most countries worldwide and the dominant or near-exclusive supplier of essentials like rare-earth metals and solar panels. But governments in Europe and elsewhere are growing uneasy that this reliance could undermine their economic and national security, especially after the past year, when China shut off much of the world’s supply of certain rare earths.

中国是全球大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴，也是稀土金属和太阳能电池板等必需品的主要或近乎独家供应商。但欧洲及其他地区的政府越来越担心，这种依赖可能削弱它们的经济和国家安全，尤其是在过去一年中国切断某些稀土全球大部分供应之后。

Sales of essential electricity-related equipment are already growing rapidly. Global shipments of batteries used to store electricity for a grid — a sector dominated by Chinese firms — nearly doubled in the first three months of the year, said Matty Zhao, head of Asia-Pacific oil, gas and basic materials research at BofA Global Research, a unit of Bank of America.

美国银行下属美银全球研究的亚太石油、天然气和基础材料研究主管麦蒂·赵表示，关键电力相关设备的销售已在快速增长。用于电网储电的电池（一个由中国企业主导的领域）全球出货量在今年前三个月几乎翻倍。

“After the war ends, countries around the world will continue to need to build out more of their energy network,” Ms. Zhao said.

“战争结束后，世界各国将继续需要进一步建设能源网络，”她说。

2025年上海车展上展示的一块宁德时代电动汽车电池。

Chinese battery manufacturers and renewable energy equipment makers were already raising money in Hong Kong to fund an overseas push, anticipating a surge in demand from power-hungry A.I. systems. But the war has added fresh urgency and new opportunities.

中国电池制造商和可再生能源设备生产商此前已在香港筹资，为海外扩张提供资金，以应对耗电量巨大的人工智能系统带来的需求激增。但这场战争增加了新的紧迫感和新机会。

Last May, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., or CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries, set off a wave of listings with Hong Kong’s biggest public offering since 2021.

去年5月，全球最大电动汽车电池制造商宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司在香港启动了自2021年以来最大规模的公开募股，掀起了一波上市潮。

Another battery maker, Shuangdeng Group, followed in August. Since then, other companies have lined up to do the same, including Sungrow, which makes energy storage systems; Ningbo Deye, a producer of solar equipment; and Sieyuan, which makes crucial components for energy grids such as transformers.

另一家电池制造商双登集团于8月跟进。此后，其他公司也排队上市，包括生产储能系统的阳光电源、太阳能设备生产商宁波德业，以及生产变压器等电网关键部件的思源电气。

These companies are now spending to expand beyond China. In February, Sungrow announced plans to invest 230 million euros (about $270 million) for its first European plant, in Poland, to produce energy storage equipment. In March, Hithium, which has also applied to go public in Hong Kong, signed a letter of intent to build a €400 million battery plant in northern Spain.

这些公司如今正投入资金扩展到中国以外。2月，阳光电源宣布计划投资2.3亿欧元（约合18.4亿元人民币）在波兰建设其首座欧洲工厂，生产储能设备。3月，也已申请在香港上市的海辰储能签署意向书，在西班牙北部建设一座价值4亿欧元的电池工厂。

Since the war began, CATL has seen surging demand in Europe for home battery systems and growing interest in Asia in grid storage batteries, a company spokesman said, especially in countries with limited electricity and little domestic oil. He said that the company could not immediately expand capacity but that it had accelerated some projects.

一位公司发言人表示，自战争爆发以来，宁德时代看到欧洲对家用电池系统的需求激增，在亚洲对电网储能电池的兴趣也在增长，尤其是在电力有限且国内石油资源匮乏的国家。他说，公司无法立即扩大产能，但已加速了一些项目。

Fierce competition at home has pushed Chinese makers of energy storage and grid equipment to sharpen their manufacturing, innovate faster and look overseas for growth.

国内激烈的竞争推动中国储能和电网设备制造商不断提升制造水平、加快创新，并寻求海外增长。

Beijing has tolerated “brutal domestic competition requiring companies to continuously innovate in order to stay in the game,” said Frank Haugwitz, a consultant specializing in China’s solar sector.

北京容忍了“残酷的国内竞争，意味着企业必须持续创新才能留在赛场上”，专注于中国太阳能行业的顾问弗兰克·豪格维茨说。

Renewable energy was once expensive and unreliable. It was impossible to control the intensity of the wind and the sun, and power came in bursts that grids could not absorb. Batteries and storage systems now capture that excess energy and release it when needed.

可再生能源曾经昂贵且不可靠。风力和阳光的强度无法控制，电力以阵发形式出现，电网无法吸收。现在，电池和储能系统可以捕捉这些多余能源，并在需要时释放出来。

For years, high battery costs made renewable systems less competitive than fossil fuels. But advances in technology have brought costs down; renewable power paired with storage is now almost on par with the cost of conventional fuels, said Mr. Combs from Trivium.

多年来，高昂的电池成本使得可再生能源系统相比化石燃料缺乏竞争力。但技术进步已大幅降低成本；搭配储能的可再生电力如今在成本上已几乎与传统燃料相当，策纬咨询的库姆斯说。

Chinese companies dominate not just batteries and grid hardware but also, increasingly, the software that manages energy flows. While some governments may be wary of giving Chinese firms access to their grids via the software, they are likely to keep buying the hardware since they have few affordable alternatives, Mr. Combs said.

中国公司不仅主导电池和电网硬件，还越来越主导管理能源流动的软件。库姆斯说，虽然一些政府可能对通过软件让中国企业接入其电网保持警惕，但它们很可能继续购买硬件，因为几乎没有其他实惠的替代方案。

Chinese businesses also lead in producing a new generation of battery chemicals that allow large amounts of electricity to be stored when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, and can be used later to power homes, electric vehicles and data centers.

中国企业还领先新一代电池化学物质的生产，这些物质允许在阳光充足或风力强劲时储存大量电力，随后用于为家庭、电动汽车和数据中心供电。

The new chemistry uses lithium-ion batteries made with iron and phosphate. These batteries hold slightly less energy in the same space as older lithium-ion batteries that rely on nickel and cobalt but cost about 99 percent less. For grid storage, where space is less of a concern, the bulkier size matters far less.

新化学物质使用铁和磷酸盐制成的锂离子电池。与依赖镍和钴的老式锂电池相比，这些电池在相同空间内储存的能量略少，但成本降低了约99%。对于电网储能而言，空间不是主要问题，因此体积较大并不重要。

China produces nearly all of the world’s lithium iron phosphate batteries, according to the International Energy Agency.

根据国际能源署的数据，中国生产了全球几乎所有的磷酸铁锂电池。

The two dominant Chinese players are BYD, which has surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric carmaker, and CATL, the leading shipper of grid storage batteries.

两大主导的中国企业是已超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动汽车制造商的比亚迪，以及全球领先的电网储能电池供货商宁德时代。

As in other industries, Chinese firms’ dominance in energy technology was forged through intense competition for the enormous domestic market. China has spent years building out renewable energy and grid infrastructure at a scale no other country has matched. Last September, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, announced plans to expand wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels, adding up to 3,600 gigawatts.

与其他行业一样，中国企业在能源技术领域的主导地位是通过对庞大国内市场的激烈竞争锻造而成的。中国多年来以其他国家无法比拟的规模建设可再生能源和电网基础设施。去年9月，中国最高领导人习近平宣布计划将风电和太阳能发电容量在2020年基础上扩大至六倍，总量达到36亿千瓦。

CATL’s battery factories are vast and highly automated, stretching as long as six football fields laid end to end. The company is building them at a rapid clip to keep up with the surging demand.

宁德时代的电池工厂规模庞大且高度自动化，长度相当于六座足球场首尾相连。该公司正在快速建设这些工厂，以跟上激增的需求。

At its latest project in Yancheng, a port city about 200 miles north of Shanghai, more than 100 backhoes, bulldozers and other heavy machinery moved across a muddy construction site early this month.

本月初，在上海以北300多公里的港口城市盐城的宁德时代最新项目工地，100多台挖掘机、推土机和其他重型机械在泥泞的现场来回作业。

“It feels like the CATL construction site is developing very quickly,” said Luo Lijuan, a street cleaner who had been posted for the past month at the site’s entrance. “It changes every day.”

“感觉宁德的工地发展得非常快，”一位已在现场入口处工作一个月的清洁工罗丽娟（音）说。“每天都在变。”

At a military parade in Beijing in September, President Xi Jinping and his special guests, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, watched as Chinese forces showed off several models of drones that could autonomously fly alongside fighter jets into battle.

去年9月在北京举行的一场阅兵式上，中国国家主席习近平与他的贵宾——俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩——一同观看了中国军队展示的多款无人机，这些无人机能够自主伴飞战斗机投入作战。

The demonstration of technological might immediately set off alarm bells in the United States. Pentagon officials concluded that America’s program for unmanned combat drones was lagging China’s, according to three U.S. defense and intelligence officials. Russia, too, was thought to be ahead in building facilities that could produce advanced drones, said the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on military capabilities.

这番技术实力展示立即引起了美国的警觉。据三位美国国防和情报官员透露，五角大楼得出结论，美国的作战无人机计划已落后于中国。此外，这些官员表示，俄罗斯在建造生产先进无人机的设施方面也被认为领先于美国。由于未获授权公开谈论军事能力，这些官员要求匿名。

U.S. officials pushed domestic defense companies to step up. Last month, Anduril, a defense technology start-up in California, began manufacturing A.I.-backed, self-flying drones that appeared similar to the ones shown in China. Production at a factory outside Columbus, Ohio, started three months ahead of schedule, part of an effort to close the gap with China, one defense official said.

美国官员随即敦促国内的国防企业加快步伐。上个月，加州国防科技初创企业Anduril开始制造配备人工智能、能够自主飞行的无人机，其外观与在中国展示的型号相似。一名国防官员表示，位于俄亥俄州哥伦布市外的工厂提前三个月启动生产，这是为了缩小与中国的差距所做的努力之一。

China’s military display and the U.S. countermove were part of an escalating global arms race over A.I.-backed autonomous weapons and defense systems. Designed to operate by themselves using A.I., the technology reduces the need for human intervention in decisions like when to hit a moving target or defend against an attack.

中国的军事展示以及美国的应对举措是围绕人工智能驱动的自主武器和防御系统不断升级的全球军备竞赛的一部分。这类技术旨在通过人工智能实现自主运行作，从而减少人类在“何时打击移动目标”或“如何防御攻击”等决策中的干预。

In recent years, many nations have quietly engaged in a contest of one-upmanship over these arsenals, including drones that identify and strike targets without human command, self-flying fighter jets that coordinate attacks at speeds and altitudes that few human pilots can reach, and central systems run by A.I. that analyze intelligence to recommend airstrike targets quickly.

近年来，许多国家在这一领域展开了悄无声息的较量，包括能够在没有人工指令下识别并打击目标的无人机、能够在人类飞行员几乎难以企及的速度和高度协同攻击的自主战斗机，以及由人工智能驱动的中央系统，用于分析情报并快速推荐空袭目标。

The United States and China, the world’s largest military powers, are at the center of the competition. But the race has widened. Russia and Ukraine, now in their fifth year of war, are looking for every technological advantage. India, Israel, Iran and others are investing in military A.I., while France, Germany, Britain and Poland are rearming amid doubts about the Trump administration’s commitment to NATO.

作为世界上最大的两个军事强国，美中处于这场竞争的中心。但这场竞赛的范围正在扩大。已进入战争第五年的俄罗斯和乌克兰正在寻求一切技术优势。印度、以色列、伊朗等国也在投资军事人工智能，法国、德国、英国和波兰也在重新武装自己——因对特朗普政府在北约承诺上的疑虑。

Each nation is aiming to amass the most advanced technological stockpile in case they need to fight drone against drone and algorithm against algorithm in ways that people cannot match, defense and intelligence officials said.

国防和情报官员表示，每个国家都致力于积累最先进的技术储备，以备在需要时能够以人类无法企及的方式进行无人机对无人机、算法对算法的作战。

Russia, China and the United States are all building A.I. arms as a deterrent and for “mutually assured destruction,” Palmer Luckey, Anduril’s founder, said in an interview in February.

Anduril创始人帕尔默·勒基在2月接受采访时表示，俄罗斯、中国和美国都在制造人工智能武器，既作为威慑手段，也为了实现“相互确保摧毁”。

The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s, when the atomic bomb’s destructive power forced rival nations into an uneasy standoff, leading to more than four decades of nuclear weapons brinkmanship.

这种军备建设被拿来与20世纪40年代核时代的开端做比较。当时，原子弹的巨大破坏力迫使敌对国家进入一种不稳定的对峙状态，并导致了持续四十多年的核武器边缘政策。

But while the implications of nuclear weapons are well understood, A.I.’s military capabilities are just beginning to be known. The technology — which does not need to pause, eat, drink or sleep — is set to upend warfare by making battles faster and more unpredictable, officials said.

核武器的影响已为人们所熟知，而人工智能的军事能力才刚刚开始显现。官员们表示，这项技术无需暂停、无需进食、无需饮水、无需睡眠，它将以更快的速度和更不可预测的方式颠覆战争形态。

Exactly which nation is furthest ahead is unclear. Many programs are in a research and development phase, and budgets are classified. Operatives from China, the United States and Russia watch one another’s factory lines, military displays and weapons deals to deduce what the other is doing, intelligence officials said.

目前尚不清楚哪个国家处于领先位置。许多项目仍处于研发阶段，相关预算也属于机密。情报官员表示，中国、美国和俄罗斯的谍报人员都在密切留意彼此的工厂生产线、军事展示和武器交易，以推断对方的动向。

China and Russia are experimenting with letting A.I. make battlefield decisions on its own, two U.S. officials said. China is developing systems for dozens of autonomous drones to coordinate attacks without human input, while Russia is building Lancet drones that can circle in the sky and autonomously pick targets, they said.

两名美国官员表示，中国和俄罗斯正在试验让人工智能自主做出战场决策。中国正在开发能够让数十架自主无人机在没有人工干预的情况下协同发动攻击的系统，俄罗斯则在建造“柳叶刀”无人机，这种无人机可以在空中盘旋并自主选择目标。

Even as the specifics of the technologies remain veiled, the intentions are clear. In 2017, Mr. Putin declared that whoever leads in A.I. “will become the ruler of the world.” Mr. Xi said in 2024 that technology would be the “main battleground” of geopolitical competition. In January, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed all branches of the U.S. military to adopt A.I., saying they needed to “accelerate like hell.”

即使这些技术的具体细节仍处于保密状态，但其意图已十分明确。普京在2017年曾宣称，谁在人工智能领域领先，“谁就将成为世界的统治者”。习近平在2024年表示，科技创新将成为地缘政治竞争的“主战场”。今年1月，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯要求美国各军种采用人工智能，称他们需要“拼命加速”。

上个月，马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地，国防部长海格塞斯和特朗普总统。海格塞斯已要求军队各军种采用人工智能。

Billions of dollars are being poured into the efforts. The Pentagon requested more than $13 billion for autonomous systems in its latest budget, and has spent billions more over the past decade, though the total is difficult to track because A.I. funding has been spread across many programs.

数十亿美元正被投入到这些努力中。五角大楼在其最新预算中为自主系统申请了超过130亿美元，且在过去十年中已耗资数百亿，不过由于人工智能的资金分散在许多项目中，总金额难以统计。

China, which some researchers said was spending amounts comparable to those of the United States, has used financial incentives to spur private industry to build A.I. capabilities. Russia has invested in drone and autonomy-related programs, analysts said, using the war in Ukraine to test and refine them on the battlefield.

一些研究人员表示，中国的投入规模与美国相当，并通过财政激励措施推动私营企业发展人工智能能力。分析人士称，俄罗斯也在无人机和自主系统方面进行投资，并利用俄乌战争的战场测试和完善这些技术。

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said China had proposed international frameworks for governing military A.I. and called for “a prudent and responsible attitude” toward its development.

中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示，中国已提出规范军事人工智能的国际框架，并呼吁对其发展采取“审慎和负责任的态度”。

The Pentagon and Russia’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.

五角大楼和俄罗斯国防部均未回应置评请求。

The dynamics may resemble the Cold War, but experts cautioned that the A.I. era was different. Start-ups and investors now play a role in the military and are as critical as universities and governments. A.I. technology is becoming widely available, opening the door for countries from Turkey to Pakistan to develop new capabilities. What’s emerging is a grinding innovation race without any obvious endpoint.

这种态势可能类似于冷战，但专家警告称，人工智能时代有所不同。初创公司和投资者如今在军事领域发挥着作用，其重要性不亚于大学和政府。人工智能技术正变得广泛应用，为从土耳其到巴基斯坦等国家开发新能力打开了大门。一场没有明确终点、不断推进的创新竞赛正在形成。

Ethical questions about ceding life-or-death choices to machines are being overtaken by the rush to build. The only major accord on A.I. weaponry between China and the United States was reached in 2024, a nonbinding pledge to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons. Other countries, like Russia, have made no commitments.

将生死抉择交给机器所引发的伦理问题正在被各国竞相研发的浪潮所淹没。中美之间唯一关于人工智能武器的重要协议是在2024年达成的，这是一项不具约束力的承诺，旨在保持人类对核武器使用决策的控制。其他国家，如俄罗斯，则未做出任何承诺。

Some argued that A.I.’s impact would be bigger than any arms race.

有人认为，人工智能的影响将超过任何一场军备竞赛。

“A.I. is a general-purpose technology like electricity. And we don’t talk about an electricity arms race,” said Michael Horowitz, a former Pentagon official involved in autonomous weapons development. “To the extent A.I. is transforming our military, it’s the way that electricity or computers or the airplane did.”

“人工智能是一种通用技术，就像电力一样。我们不会说电力军备竞赛，”曾参与自主武器开发的五角大楼前官员迈克尔·霍洛维茨说。“如果说人工智能正在改变我们的军队，其方式与电力、计算机或飞机当年如出一辙。”

去年9月，在北京天安门广场举行的中国军队阅兵式上，一架作战无人飞行器。

The Buildup Begins

军备建设拉开序幕

In 2016 at an air show in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai, a Chinese supplier flew 67 drones in unison. An animated film separately showed the drones destroying a missile launcher, a demonstration of their capabilities.

2016年，在中国南方城市珠海的一个航展上，一家中国供应商让67架无人机编队飞行。为了展现它们的能力，还用一段动画呈现出这些无人机摧毁导弹发射器的场景。

Russia, too, was building its drone arsenal. In 2014, its military planners set a goal of making 30 percent of its combat power autonomous by 2025. By 2018, the Russian military was testing an unmanned armed vehicle in Syria. While the tank failed, losing its signal and missing targets, it underscored Moscow’s ambitions.

俄罗斯也在建设无人机武器库。2014年，该国的军事规划部门设定了到2025年实现30%作战力量自主化的目标。到2018年，俄罗斯军方在叙利亚测试了一款无人战车。虽然该战车失败了——信号丢失、未能击中目标，但它凸显了莫斯科的雄心。

In Washington, Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, who had previously worked in intelligence at the Defense Department, was assessing whether A.I. could solve a more immediate problem. The U.S. military was collecting so much data — drone footage, satellite imagery, intercepted signals — that nobody could make sense of it all.

在华盛顿，此前曾在国防部从事情报工作的中将杰克·沙纳汉正在评估人工智能能否解决一个更紧迫的问题。美军收集的数据太多了——无人机拍摄的画面、卫星图像、截获的信号，以至于没人能全部理清。

“There was nothing in any of the research labs in the military that were capable of generating results in less than a couple of years,” General Shanahan said. “We had a problem we could not solve without A.I.”

“军方任何研究实验室都无法在短短几年内产生成果，”沙纳汉将军说。“我们有一个不靠人工智能就无法解决的问题。”

In 2017, General Shanahan helped create Project Maven, a Defense Department effort for the military to incorporate A.I. into its systems. One aim was to work with Silicon Valley to build software to swiftly process images like drone footage for intelligence purposes. Google was tapped to help.

2017年，沙纳汉将军协助创建了马文项目(Project Maven)，这是国防部为将人工智能纳入军事系统而做出的努力。其目标之一是与硅谷合作，构建能够快速处理图像（如无人机拍摄的画面）用于情报目的的软件。谷歌曾被选中提供帮助。

But the project quickly ran into hurdles. The Pentagon’s procurement system, built around legacy contractors and long timelines, slowed things down.

但该项目很快遇到障碍。五角大楼的采购体系建立在传统承包商和漫长的交付周期之上，拖慢了进度。

When word spread inside Google about Project Maven, employees also protested, saying a company that had once pledged “Don’t be evil” should not help identify targets for drone strikes. Google eventually backed away from the project.

当马文项目的消息在谷歌内部传开后，员工们也提出了抗议，称一家曾承诺“不作恶”的公司不应帮助识别无人机打击的目标。谷歌最终退出了该项目。

In 2019, Palantir, a data analytics company co-founded by the tech investor Peter Thiel, took over Maven. New defense tech start-ups like Anduril also emerged, supplying the federal government with A.I.-backed sensor towers along the southern U.S. border.

2019年，由科技投资者彼得·蒂尔共同创立的数据分析公司Palantir接管了马文项目。Anduril等新的国防科技初创公司也出现了，它们在美国南部边境沿线向联邦政府提供由人工智能支持的传感器塔。

In China, Beijing pushed commercial tech companies toward defense partnerships in a strategy called “civil-military fusion.” Private firms were drawn into military procurement, joint research and other work with defense institutions. Companies working on drones and unmanned boats found growing military demand for their technologies.

在中国，北京通过军民融合战略推动商业科技公司与国防部门合作。私营企业被纳入军事采购、联合研究以及与国防机构的其他合作项目中。从事无人机和无人艇的公司发现，其技术在军事领域的需求日益增长。

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 turned theory into reality.

2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，将理论变成了现实。

Outgunned, outspent and outnumbered, Ukraine held off Russia with an improvised arsenal of cheap technology. Hobbyist racing drones were used to attack Russian positions on the front lines, eventually becoming more lethal than artillery and, in some cases, gaining autonomous capabilities. Remote-controlled boats kept Russia’s Black Sea fleet pinned down.

在武器、经费和人数均处于劣势的情况下，乌克兰依靠廉价技术拼凑而成的武器库挡住了俄罗斯的进攻。业余爱好者使用的竞速无人机被用来攻击前线的俄罗斯阵地，其杀伤力最终超过了火炮，在某些情况下甚至具备自主作战能力。遥控艇则让俄罗斯黑海舰队陷入困境。

Russia adapted as well. Its Lancet drone, which was initially piloted by humans, has incorporated autonomous targeting features.

俄罗斯也进行了调整。其最初由人工操控的“柳叶刀”无人机已集成自主目标锁定功能。

俄罗斯士兵在乌克兰某未公开地点搬运一架“柳叶刀”无人机。这张照片截取自俄罗斯国防部新闻处8月发布的视频。

“The four years of brutality on the battlefield in Ukraine has served as a laboratory for the world,” said Mr. Horowitz, the former Pentagon official.

“乌克兰战场四年的残酷厮杀已成为全世界的实验场，”前五角大楼官员霍洛维茨说。

In recent months, Ukraine began sharing its troves of battlefield data with Palantir and other firms so A.I. systems can better learn to fight wars.

最近几个月，乌克兰开始将其海量战场数据与Palantir等公司共享，以便人工智能系统更好地学习如何作战。

Across Europe, where governments are aiming to diminish their reliance on the American military, the lessons from Ukraine resounded. In February, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Poland said they would develop a joint air defense system to guard against drones.

在欧洲，各国政府正努力减少对美国军队的依赖，乌克兰的教训产生了强烈共鸣。今年2月，德国、法国、意大利、英国和波兰表示，他们将共同开发一套防空系统，以防御无人机威胁。

China also advanced. At the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, Norinco, one of the country’s main defense manufacturers, revealed multiple weapons with A.I. capabilities. One of its systems showed an entire brigade, including armored vehicles and drones, which were controlled and operated by A.I.

中国也在推进。2024年珠海航展上，中国主要国防制造商之一的北方工业展示了多款具备人工智能能力的武器。其中一个系统展示了一整个由人工智能控制和操作的旅级单位，包括装甲车辆和无人机。

Another craft, unveiled by the state-run Aviation Industry Corporation of China, was a 16-ton jet-powered drone designed to serve as a flying aircraft carrier that could deploy dozens of smaller drones midflight.

另一款由中国航空工业集团推出的飞行器是一架16吨重的喷气动力无人机，设计用于充当飞行航母，可在飞行中部署数十架小型无人机。

2024年珠海航展上亮相的一款能够发射小型无人机群的无人机母舰。

‘Left Click, Right Click’

“点击左键、点击右键”

A week after American and Israeli forces struck Iran in February, a senior Pentagon official gave a glimpse into what computerized warfare now looks like at a conference livestreamed by Palantir.

今年2月美以联军对伊朗发动打击一周后，一位五角大楼高级官员在Palantir直播的一场会议上展示了当今计算机化战争的真实面貌。

A satellite feed showed a warehouse. With the click of a mouse, an officer selected a row of white trucks parked outside to target in real time. In seconds, the A.I. software suggested a weapon, calculated fuel and ammunition needs, weighed the cost and generated a strike plan.

卫星画面显示了一个仓库。一名军官点击鼠标，实时选中了停在外面的一排白色卡车作为打击目标。几秒钟内，人工智能软件就推荐了武器、计算了燃料和弹药需求、权衡了行动成本，并生成了打击计划。

It was the present-day version of Project Maven, which General Shanahan had started and was now run by Palantir and powered by commercial A.I. The system analyzed intelligence from various sources, generated target lists ranked by priority and recommended weapons, all but eliminating the lag between identifying a target and destroying it.

这就是沙纳汉将军当年启动、如今由Palantir运营并由商用人工智能驱动的马文项目的现代版本。该系统分析来自不同来源的情报，生成按优先级排序的目标清单并推荐武器，几乎消除了从发现目标到摧毁目标之间的延迟。

Embedded with a military version of Claude, the chatbot made by the A.I. firm Anthropic, Maven helped generate thousands of targets in the opening weeks of the Iran campaign, a pace that Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, attributed in part to “advanced A.I. tools.”

马文项目嵌入了人工智能公司Anthropic开发的军用版聊天机器人Claude，在伊朗行动的最初几周，该系统帮助生成了数以千计的目标，美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将将这一速度部分归功于“先进的人工智能工具”。

Cameron Stanley, the Defense Department’s chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, who spoke at Palantir’s conference, said that what Maven was doing was “revolutionary.” Human involvement amounted to “left click, right click, left click,” he said.

出席Palantir会议并演讲的国防部首席数字与人工智能官卡梅伦·斯坦利表示，马文项目正在做的工作是“革命性的”。他说，人类的参与仅限于“点击左键、点击右键、点击左键”。

The claims about Maven’s abilities might be overstated and much of the American advantage came from the scale of data flowing in and the skills of the people using it, said Emelia Probasco, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

乔治城大学安全与新兴技术中心高级研究员埃梅利亚·普罗巴斯科表示，关于马文项目能力的说法可能被夸大了，美国的优势很大程度上来自数据流的规模，以及使用这些工具的人员技能。

“It’s not rocket science,” she said. “I suspect that China already has something like it.”

“这不是火箭科学，”她说，“我怀疑中国已经有了类似的东西。”

In a recent report analyzing thousands of People’s Liberation Army procurement documents, Ms. Probasco found that China was building systems that mirrored American ones. In one case, China was trying to replicate the Joint Fires Network, an American program set up to link sensors and weapons globally so a drone on one side of the world could cue a strike from the other.

在最近一份分析数以千计中国人民解放军采购文件的报告中，普罗巴斯科发现，中国正在建设与美国类似的系统。其中一个例子显示，中国正试图复制“联合火力网络”，这是一个旨在全球连接传感器和武器的美国项目，让一架无人机可以在世界一侧为另一侧的打击提供指引。

In some areas, China clearly leads. Its manufacturing dominance means it can produce autonomous weapons at a scale the Pentagon cannot match.

在某些领域，中国显然处于领先地位。其制造业优势意味着它能够以五角大楼无法匹敌的规模生产自主武器。

Inside the Trump administration, the push for A.I. weapons has taken on an almost evangelical fervor. Last month, the Pentagon labeled Anthropic a security risk, partly because the company wanted to limit its technology’s use for automated weapons.

在特朗普政府内部，推动人工智能武器的热情已近乎狂热。上个月，五角大楼将Anthropic列为安全风险，部分原因在于该公司希望限制其技术在自动武器中的应用。

“We will win the A.I. race,” Jacob Helberg, the under secretary of state for economic affairs, said last month at the Hill & Valley Forum, an annual conference in Washington, which he co-founded to bridge Silicon Valley and the government.

“我们将赢得人工智能竞赛，”负责经济事务的副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格上个月在由他共同创立的“国会山与硅谷论坛”上表示，该年度会议旨在连接硅谷与政府。

2024年“国会山与硅谷论坛”上，美国国务院负责经济事务的副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格与Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普。

At the conference, tech executives, investors and government officials cheered speakers who called for tech companies to give the military unfettered access to A.I.

在会议上，科技高管、投资者和政府官员对那些呼吁科技公司向军方无限制开放人工智能的演讲者报以热烈掌声。

Anduril’s Mr. Luckey argued that the A.I. arms buildup might prevent major wars. The logic mirrored the Cold War: If both sides knew what the machines could do, neither would risk finding out.

Anduril的勒基认为，人工智能军备建设可能防止大规模战争。其逻辑与冷战类似：如果双方都清楚这种机器的能力，就没有人愿意冒险去验证。

“Conflicts between superpowers will similarly deteriorate if you can build the things that deter warfare effectively enough,” he said.

“如果能制造出足以有效遏制战争的武器，超级大国之间的冲突也会随之缓和，道理是类似的，”他说。

Yet deterrence assumes rationality, while A.I. weapons are designed to move faster than human reason. In exercises dating to 2020, researchers explored how autonomous systems could accelerate escalation and erode human control — with some alarming results.

然而，威慑的前提是理性，而人工智能武器的设计初衷却是超越人类理性的反应速度。在2020年以来的演习中，研究人员探讨了自主系统如何加速升级并削弱人类控制——结果令人担忧。

In one scenario, a system operated by the United States and Japan responded to a missile launch from North Korea by autonomously firing an unexpected counterattack.

在一个场景中，由美国和日本操作的系统在应对朝鲜导弹发射时，自主发动了出人意料的反击。

“The speed of autonomous systems led to inadvertent escalation,” said the report by analysts at RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization that works with the military.

兰德公司分析师的报告称，“自主系统的速度导致了无意的升级。”

General Shanahan, who retired from the military in 2020 and is now a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank, said the race he had helped start kept him up at night. Governments must set clear boundaries before the technology outruns their control, he said.

2020年从军方退役、现为智库新美国安全中心研究员的沙纳汉将军表示，自己曾参与推动的这场竞赛让他夜不能寐。他说，各国政府必须在技术发展超出控制之前设定明确的界限。

退役中将、前联合人工智能中心主任杰克·沙纳汉表示，人工智能将“进一步强调越来越快地行动”。

“There is a risk of an escalatory spiral where we’re in danger of fielding untested, unsafe and unproven systems if we’re not careful, because we each feel like the other side is hiding something from us,” he said.

“存在升级螺旋的风险——如果我们不小心，我们就有可能部署未经测试、不安全、未经证实的系统，因为双方都觉得对方在隐瞒什么，”他说。

Vice President JD Vance summed up the failure of 21 hours of negotiations with Iran in one sentence: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”

副总统万斯用一句话总结了与伊朗长达21小时谈判的失败：“他们选择不接受我们的条件。”

To Iranian officials, that line reflected their biggest problem with the talks, too: The United States, they argue, had not come to negotiate.

在伊朗官员看来，这句话恰恰也道出了他们对此次谈判最大的不满：他们认为，美国根本不是来谈判的。

“Bingo,” Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who led Iran’s negotiators in the nuclear deal negotiations with Washington and Europe in 2015, highlighting the comment from Mr. Vance, wrote on X. “No negotiations — at least with Iran — will succeed based on ‘our/your terms.’”

伊朗前外长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫曾在2015年带领伊朗谈判团队与美欧达成伊核协议，他在X平台上特意引用了万斯这句话，并写道：“一语中的，任何谈判——至少是和伊朗的谈判——都不可能基于‘我们的/你们的条件’而成功。”

“We are open to dialogue and negotiation,” Medhi Tabatabei, a deputy to Iran’s president, wrote on social media on Sunday. “But we do not submit to force.”

伊朗总统副手迈赫迪·塔巴塔拜伊周日在社交媒体上写道：“我们对于对话与谈判持开放态度，但我们绝不屈服于武力。”

Both Washington and Tehran sent their mediators to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday asserting that they had the upper hand. And both left those talks still thinking they had the edge, even as they left room open for diplomacy.

周六，美伊双方均派调解人前往巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡参加谈判，双方都声称自己占据上风。谈判结束后，双方仍然都认为自己握有优势，但同时也为后续外交接触留下了空间。

U.S. officials see their advantage in the devastating damage they have inflicted on Iran — killing most of the leaders who ran the country before the war, and hammering its military bases and infrastructure. On Sunday, Mr. Vance told reporters that “we’ve made very clear what our red lines are” and “what things we’re willing to accommodate them on.”

美国官员认为，他们的优势在于对伊朗造成了毁灭性打击——炸死了战前执掌国家的大部分领导人，并重创了伊朗的军事基地和基础设施。周日，万斯对记者表示：“我们已经非常明确地划定了红线”，并且“说明了我们愿意在哪些方面做出让步”。

副总统万斯周六抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡，准备与伊朗方面举行会谈。

Iran’s government sees itself not only as victorious for having survived that onslaught, but also for having emerged with a new and strategic card. Since the war began, it has asserted control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping corridor — and it is not willing to give up that leverage now.

伊朗政府则认为，自己不仅因为在这场猛攻中幸存下来而取胜，还获得了一张全新的致胜战略王牌。自战争爆发以来，伊朗已经掌控了霍尔木兹海峡这一关键石油运输通道的通行权，而且现在绝不打算放弃这一筹码。

“We will not stop for a moment in working to secure the achievements of the last forty days,” Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of Parliament and the head of the negotiating delegation, wrote in a statement on social media on Sunday.

伊朗议会议长、谈判代表团团长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫将军周日在社交媒体上发表声明称：“我们将一刻不停地努力，捍卫过去40天取得的成果。”

Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, framed the leveraging of Hormuz as a new chapter in Iran’s history of using its geography against foreign attackers. He compared Iranian forces’ ability to block maritime traffic in the strait to the ancient Persians’ use of Abu al-Hayat, a pass in the Zagros Mountains, to repel Alexander the Great.

伊朗最高领袖高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提将利用霍尔木兹海峡作为筹码描述为伊朗利用地理优势抵御外来侵略者历史的新篇章。他将伊朗军队封锁海峡海上交通的能力比作古代波斯人利用扎格罗斯山脉的阿布·哈亚特隘口击退亚历山大大帝。

“Just as the “Abu al-Hayat Pass” once symbolized the blocking of outsiders,” he wrote on social media, “today the Strait of Hormuz is firmly in our hands.”

他在社交媒体上写道：“正如当年的阿布·哈亚特隘口象征着阻挡外来者，如今霍尔木兹海峡牢牢掌握在我们手中。”

Regional observers say the diplomatic impasse in Islamabad reflects a bigger geopolitical struggle between the two foes.

地区观察人士表示，伊斯兰堡的外交僵局反映了这两个宿敌之间更宏大的地缘政治博弈。

“This isn’t just a dispute over who was victorious — it’s a dispute over the meaning of the war itself,” said Ramzy Mardini, founder of Geopol Labs, a Middle East-based geopolitical risk advisory firm.

“这不仅仅是一场关于谁获胜的争论，更是关于这场战争本身意义的争论，”总部位于中东的地缘政治风险咨询公司Geopol Labs创始人拉姆齐·马尔迪尼表示。

“For Tehran, this is a war that revises the regional order — one that redefines the rules and allows it to break out of the constraints and sanctions imposed on it.” Washington, he said, “still sees itself as enforcing an existing hegemonic order that others must conform to.”

“对德黑兰而言，这是一场重塑地区秩序的战争——它重新定义了规则，让伊朗得以摆脱强加在自己身上的种种限制与制裁，”他说。而华盛顿“仍将自己视为现有霸权秩序的执行者，要求其他国家必须遵守这一秩序”。

The idea that a day of diplomacy would unlock decades of entrenched issues was always a long shot. Iranians were already embittered by President Trump’s withdrawal in 2018 from their previous nuclear deal with Washington. Before the war in February, Mr. Trump’s mediators pressed Tehran to relinquish its uranium stockpiles and halt uranium enrichment. The various rounds of talks went nowhere.

指望一天的外交斡旋就能解决数十年根深蒂固的问题本来就是不切实际的幻想。伊朗人早已因特朗普2018年退出美伊此前达成的核协议而心怀怨恨。今年2月战争爆发前，特朗普的调解人就曾施压德黑兰，要求其放弃铀储备并停止铀浓缩活动。多轮谈判均无果而终。

“We should not have expected to reach an agreement in a single session from the outset,” said Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman of Iran’s Foreign Ministry. “No one had such expectations.”

伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加伊表示：“我们从一开始就不该指望能在一次会谈中达成协议。没有人抱有这样的期待。”

This round of negotiations are even thornier, now that Iran seems determined not to give ground over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran not only seeks to control the waterway, but Iranian politicians have also signaled they hope to extract money from it. If Iran can collect tolls from vessels going through the strait, the money could help finance the enormous reconstruction efforts that lie ahead.

本轮谈判之所以更加棘手，是因为伊朗似乎决心在霍尔木兹海峡问题上寸步不让。伊朗不仅寻求掌控这条水道，其政界人士还暗示希望从中获取经济收益。如果伊朗能向过往船只收取通行费，这笔资金将有助于支撑未来规模庞大的重建工作。

周日，阿曼海岸外的霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗决心在该海峡问题上绝不退让。

A simple return to the era of free navigation before the war is not in the cards if Iran’s leaders get their way, said Sasan Karimi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran and the former deputy vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government.

德黑兰大学政治学家、前伊朗政府代理战略副总统萨桑·卡里米表示，如果伊朗领导人如愿以偿，那么单纯地回到战前自由通航的时代是不可能的。

And yet Iranian negotiators say the United States’ aims went even beyond a return to that status quo, Mr. Karimi said, to demanding shared management of the strait.

卡里米说，然而伊朗谈判代表表示，美国的目标甚至超出了恢复战前原状的范畴，进而要求共同管理霍尔木兹海峡。

“It is nonsense that America would have management of the Hormuz Strait,” he said. “Iran is not going to deliver such concessions to Donald Trump that he couldn’t grasp in the war.”

“美国要管理霍尔木兹海峡，这简直是无稽之谈，”他说。“伊朗绝不会向唐纳德·特朗普做出这种他靠战争都没能得到的让步。”

“Iran showed already it is not to be defeated easily — this is not an easy game like Venezuela,” he added, referring to the quick U.S. operation in January to remove the Venezuelan president and assert its own terms on the country’s remaining leaders.

“伊朗已经证明，它不是那么容易被打败的——这不是像委内瑞拉那样容易搞定的事，”他还说。他指的是今年1月美国迅速采取行动推翻委内瑞拉总统，并向该国剩余领导人强加自己条件的行动。

Mr. Trump said on Sunday on his social media that his next move is to impose a U.S. naval blockade on Iran in the strait. “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he wrote. “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”

特朗普周日在其社交媒体上表示，他的下一步行动是在海峡对伊朗实施美国海上封锁。他写道：“任何向我们或和平船只开火的伊朗人，都将被炸得粉身碎骨！绝不允许伊朗从这种非法敲诈行为中获利。”

That will pose new risks for the global economy, said Ali Vaez, the head of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, a think tank. Iran will probably urge its regional ally, the Houthi forces in Yemen, to block Bab al-Mandeb, another crucial shipping route at the southern tip of the Red Sea.

智库国际危机组织伊朗项目负责人阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这将给全球经济带来新的风险。伊朗很可能会敦促其地区盟友也门胡塞武装封锁红海南端另一条关键航运通道曼德海峡。

And if diplomacy ultimately fails and fighting resumes, Iranian officials are banking that they can get Mr. Trump to blink over the global economic chaos before they are exhausted by U.S. military blows.

如果外交最终失败，战事重启，伊朗官员指望在被美国军事打击拖垮之前，全球经济混乱会迫使特朗普先做出让步。

Current U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has retained a significant amount of its weapons stockpiles and has been able to dig out its missile bunkers and silos faster than anticipated.

美国当前的情报评估显示，伊朗仍保留了大量武器储备，且清理修复导弹掩体和发射井的速度超出预期。

“They could hold their ground for another two months, if not more. And economically, I think there is no threshold for how much more pain the Iranians are willing to tolerate,” Mr. Vaez said.

瓦埃兹说：“他们至少还能再坚守两个月。而在经济层面，我认为伊朗人愿意承受的痛苦没有上限。”

“The question really is: Is the Trump administration willing to pay the high economic price?”

“真正的问题是：特朗普政府是否愿意为此付出高昂的经济代价？”