The U.S. military said on Sunday that it would blockade any ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas,” but said it would allow other ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Trump had said the United States would fully block the economically vital waterway.

美国军方周日表示，将对“进出伊朗港口及沿海地区”的所有船只实施封锁，但同时表示将允许其他船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。此前数小时，特朗普总统曾表示美国将全面封锁这条具有重要经济意义的水道。

The blockade on Iranian ports would begin on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern time, U.S. Central Command said in a statement posted on social media, adding that U.S. “forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

美国中央司令部在社交媒体上发布声明称，对伊朗港口的封锁将于美东时间周一上午10点开始。声明还表示，美军“不会阻碍往返于非伊朗港口的船只通过霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由”。

Though the statement said the move was “in accordance with the President’s proclamation,” it appeared to soften Mr. Trump’s earlier vow to block “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” In an interview with Fox News in the morning, the president had reiterated it would be a “complete blockade,” and said traffic through the strait was “all or nothing.”

尽管声明称此举是“根据总统公告”采取的，但其措辞似乎缓和了特朗普此前“封锁任何试图进入或离开霍尔木兹海峡的船只”的表态。当天早些时候，特朗普在接受福克斯新闻采访时重申，这将是一次“全面封锁”，并表示通过海峡的交通“要么全部允许，要么全部禁止”。

Mr. Trump’s announcement had plunged an already brittle truce between Iran and the United States into further uncertainty after Saturday’s marathon peace talks between top Iranian and American leaders in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough.

在伊朗和美国领导人周末于巴基斯坦举行的马拉松式和平谈判未能取得突破后，特朗普的这一宣布令本就脆弱的伊美停火协议不确定性进一步加剧。

An adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader, warned that Iran had “large, untouched levers” to counter any naval blockade. Its top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, directly addressed American consumers: “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”

伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的一名顾问警告称，伊朗仍握有“尚未动用的重大手段”来应对任何海上封锁。伊朗首席谈判代表、议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫则直接向美国消费者喊话：“很快你们就会怀念每加仑4到5美元的油价了。”

Iran has choked off shipping in the strait — through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil normally flows — since the war started, allowing through only its own ships and a few others. As a result, global oil prices had soared by more than 50 percent during the conflict, and the United States had demanded that Iran reopen the strait and conditioned the truce on Tehran doing so.

自战争爆发以来，伊朗已封锁了海峡的航运——正常情况下全球约20%的石油经此通道运输——只允许本国船只及少数其他国家的船只通过。其结果是，冲突期间全球油价飙升了50%以上，美国一直要求伊朗重新开放海峡，并将此作为停火的条件之一。

Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. negotiating team, said early Sunday that the talks in Islamabad — the highest-level face-to-face encounter between U.S. and Iranian leaders since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — had ended with Iran choosing “not to accept our terms.” The chief Iranian negotiator, Mr. Ghalibaf, said on social media that the United States had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation” in this round of talks.

由美国副总统JD·万斯率领的美方谈判团队周日早些时候表示，在伊斯兰堡举行的谈判——这是自1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命以来美伊领导人之间级别最高的一次面对面会晤——以伊朗选择“不接受我们的条件”告终。伊朗首席谈判代表加利巴夫在社交媒体上表示，美国在本轮谈判中“未能赢得伊朗代表团的信任”。

Analysts said the issues dividing the two countries were so complex — and their differences so entrenched — that cinching a deal in a single round of talks had been highly unlikely. The key differences center on the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, frozen Iranian revenues held abroad, and the Strait of Hormuz.

分析人士表示，两国之间的分歧非常复杂，而且根深蒂固，因此在一轮会谈中就达成协议的可能性极低。关键分歧集中在近900磅高浓缩铀的处置、伊朗在海外的冻结收入以及霍尔木兹海峡问题上。

Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Ghalibaf appeared to rule out additional negotiations. Mr. Trump told Fox News that his threats had forced Iran “to the bargaining table and they haven’t left,” adding that he believed the United States would eventually get “everything” it wanted from Iran.

特朗普和卡利巴夫似乎都没有排除进一步谈判的可能性。特朗普告诉福克斯新闻，他的威胁迫使伊朗“来到了谈判桌前，而且他们还没有离开”，并称他相信美国最终会从伊朗那里得到“全部”想要的东西。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们正在关注的其他内容：

• Economic woes: Oil prices rose on Sunday after the peace talks failed to produce a deal. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose more than 7 percent to around $102 a barrel. Mr. Trump earlier in the day downplayed the economic effects of the war, which have been a political liability. Asked on Fox News if oil and gas prices could fall by the time the midterm elections are held in November, he said they “could be the same or maybe a little bit higher” — an indication that the economic turmoil of the war could linger for months.

经济困境：在和平谈判未能达成协议后，周日油价上涨。全球基准油价布伦特原油价格上涨超过7%，至每桶约102美元。特朗普当天早些时候淡化了战争对经济的影响——已经成为了是他的政治负担。当福克斯新闻问及11月中期选举时，油价能否降下来，他表示“可能持平，或许还会略高一些”——这表明战争带来的经济动荡可能会持续数月。

• Israel and Lebanon: Israel was not involved in the weekend negotiations and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided mentioning them in an address on Saturday evening as he faces criticism at home over the cease-fire with Iran. Israel has kept up deadly attacks on southern Lebanon, including on Sunday morning, according to Lebanon’s state media. Iran had accused Israel of breaking the cease-fire by continuing to attack in Lebanon, leading Mr. Trump to ask Israel to rein in its assault. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are expected to meet in Washington next week for rare direct talks.

以色列与黎巴嫩：以色列未参与周末的谈判，内塔尼亚胡总理在周六晚的讲话中也对相关内容避而不提，目前他正因与伊朗停火问题在国内面临批评。据黎巴嫩国家媒体报道，以色列持续对黎巴嫩南部发动致命打击，包括周日早晨的袭击。伊朗此前指责以色列继续在黎巴嫩发动攻击违反了停火协议，这也促使特朗普要求以色列收敛攻势。以色列和黎巴嫩驻美大使预计将于下周在华盛顿举行罕见的直接会谈。

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Saturday said that 2,020 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including 357 in a wave of Israeli strikes on Wednesday. In attacks attributed to Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. At least 22 people had been killed in Israel as of Sunday, as well as 12 Israeli soldiers fighting in Lebanon. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.

死亡人数：人权活动家通讯社表示，截至周三，伊朗已有至少1701名平民死亡，其中包括254名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部周六表示，在以色列与真主党最近一轮冲突中已有2020人丧生，其中357人死于周三以色列发起的一系列空袭。在归因于伊朗的袭击中，海湾国家至少有32人死亡。截至周日，以色列已有至少22人死亡，另有12名以军士兵在黎巴嫩作战中阵亡。美国方面的死亡人数为13名军人。

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, a lodestar for MAGA culture warriors and right-wing populists in Europe, conceded defeat on Sunday in a general election, breaking the momentum of a global nationalist revival promoted by President Trump.

周日，被MAGA文化斗士和欧洲右翼民粹主义者奉为指路明灯的匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班承认败选，打断了特朗普总统推动的全球民族主义复兴的势头。

In a surprisingly early and gracious concession speech in Budapest, Mr. Orban congratulated the opposition saying, “The responsibility and opportunity to govern were not given to us.” But, he also made a vow: “We are not giving up. Never, never, never.”

在布达佩斯，欧尔班出人意料地早早发表了败选演讲，而且语气谦和。他向反对派表示祝贺，说道：“治理国家的责任和机会没有交给我们。”但他同时发誓：“我们不会放弃。永不，永不，永不。”

His defeat paves the way for Peter Magyar, a former Orban loyalist and the leader of the main opposition party, to take over as Hungary’s prime minister once the newly elected Parliament meets.

他的失败为彼得·毛焦尔的当选铺平了道路。这位前欧尔班忠实支持者和主要反对党领袖将在新一届议会召开后接任匈牙利总理。

“We have done it,” Mr. Magyar told a cheering crowd gathered with flags on the bank of the River Danube. “We have liberated Hungary and have taken back our country.” Sunday’s vote was widely seen as showdown between friends and foes of liberal democracy, a cause that Mr. Orban has battled against for years to applause from his fans in the United States, Europe and Latin America. The race was closely watched by the Trump administration and the Kremlin, both of which wanted Mr. Orban to win and both of which offered support in his campaign.

“我们做到了，”毛焦尔对多瑙河畔手持国旗欢呼的人群说。“我们解放了匈牙利，夺回了我们的国家。”周日的投票被广泛视为自由主义民主的支持者与反对者之间的对决。多年来，欧尔班一直与自由主义民主为敌，并因此赢得了美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲粉丝的掌声。这场选举受到特朗普政府和克里姆林宫的密切关注，双方都希望欧尔班获胜，并在竞选中向他提供了支持。

The implications of the outcome extend far beyond Hungary’s borders. The next prime minister may help alter the course of the war in Ukraine, a neighbor that Mr. Orban has cast as an enemy of Hungary, and affect European security. And the results will be looked at by populists around the world who view the Hungarian leader as a model of success and of pugnacious defiance of the mainstream.

选举结果的影响远远超出匈牙利国界。新总理可能会改变乌克兰战争的走向——欧尔班曾将这个邻国描绘成匈牙利的敌人，并影响欧洲安全。世界各地的民粹主义者也将关注这一结果，他们视这位匈牙利领导人为成功的典范，和强硬反抗主流的榜样。

After the results, large crowds of mostly young people thronged the banks of the River Danube in front of the Parliament Building, cheering and waving Hungarian flags. Many were stunned by the speed and scale of the defeat of Mr. Orban, whose party won the four previous elections easily.

结果公布后，以年轻人为主的人群涌向多瑙河河岸的议会大厦前，欢呼并挥舞匈牙利国旗。许多人对欧尔班迅速且全面的失败感到震惊——他的政党在此前四次选举中都轻松获胜。

周日，在布达佩斯庆祝活动中燃放的烟花。

With 66 percent of votes counted, Mr. Magyar’s opposition party was on course to win 137 seats — more than a two-thirds majority. Mr. Orban’s party, Fidesz, was expected to win just 55.

在计票66%的情况下，毛焦尔领导的反对党有望赢得137个席位——超过三分之二多数。欧尔班的政党青民盟预计仅获得55席。

Shortly before polls closed, the electoral authorities said that more than 77 percent of registered voters had cast ballots, the highest turnout in a Hungarian election since the collapse of Communism in 1989 and the start of democracy.

投票结束前不久，选举管理部门宣布，超过77%的登记选民投了票，这是1989年共产主义崩溃、匈牙利开启民主以来的最高投票率。

“Thank You Hungary!” Mr. Magyar said in a brief message on Facebook, reporting that Mr. Orban had called to congratulate him.

“谢谢你，匈牙利！”毛焦尔在Facebook上发布简短消息称，并透露欧尔班已打电话向他表示祝贺。

During his 16 years in power, Mr. Orban remade Hungary in his own image, eliminating many checks and balances by stacking the judicial system and nominally independent agencies with Fidesz loyalists, and taking control of most news media outlets. He also worked to export his model of “illiberal democracy,” promoting himself as an invincible guru for followers across Europe and elsewhere.

在执政16年间，欧尔班按照自己的形象重塑了匈牙利。他通过将司法系统和名义上独立的机构塞满青民盟忠实支持者，消除了许多制衡机制，并控制了大部分新闻媒体。他还努力输出自己的“非自由主义式民主”模式，将自己塑造成欧洲乃至世界各地追随者心目中战无不胜的导师。

Long a thorn in the side of E.U. officials in Brussels, Mr. Orban has consistently blocked European assistance to Ukraine, worked to water down sanctions on Russia and presented Ukraine, not Russia, as the principal threat to Europe’s security.

长期以来，欧尔班一直是布鲁塞尔欧盟官员的眼中钉。他一贯阻挠欧盟对乌克兰的援助，努力弱化对俄罗斯的制裁，并将乌克兰而非俄罗斯描述为欧洲安全的主要威胁。

周日，议会选举部分结果公布后，反对党蒂萨党领袖彼得·毛焦尔在布达佩斯。

Those positions made him an invaluable ally for the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. Mr. Putin, hoping to help Mr. Orban’s chances in the election, assured him last month that Hungary could rely on steady deliveries of Russian oil and gas despite disruptions to global energy supplies caused by the war in Iran.

这些立场使他成为俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京的宝贵盟友。上个月，为帮助欧尔班提升胜选机会，普京向他保证，尽管伊朗战争导致全球能源供应中断，匈牙利仍可依靠稳定的俄罗斯石油和天然气供应。

Despite his country’s small size and population of fewer than 10 million people, Mr. Orban, 62, has played an outsize role on the world stage, inspiring and, in some cases, funding like-minded political forces abroad. He became the standard-bearer for right-wing politicians committed to “family values” and “Western civilization” against what he has denounced as degenerate, multicultural liberals.

尽管匈牙利国土面积小、人口不足1000万，但现年62岁的欧尔班在国际舞台上扮演了超乎寻常的角色。他激励并在某些情况下资助国外志同道合的政治力量。他成为右翼政客的旗手，这些政客致力于捍卫“家庭价值观”和“西方文明”，反对他所谴责的堕落的多元文化自由主义。

While sharing some of Mr. Orban’s views on the importance of national sovereignty and the dangers of “woke ideology,” the opposition leader, Mr. Magyar, a lawmaker in the European Parliament and divorced father of three, won votes for Tisza by promising drastic change, though he was often vague on the specifics.

虽然反对党领袖毛焦尔在国家主权重要性和“觉醒意识形态”的危险性上与欧尔班有一些共同观点，但他通过承诺彻底变革为蒂萨党赢得选票，尽管他在具体细节上常常语焉不详。毛焦尔是欧洲议会议员，离异，有三个孩子。

On one issue he has been unequivocal. Mr. Magyar, 45, promised voters a clean break with the endemic corruption that has enriched the prime minister’s family and friends and helped saddle Hungary with the slowest-growing economy in the region. Hungary, according to an annual ranking by Transparency International, is the most corrupt country in the European Union.

在一个问题上，他态度明确。45岁的毛焦尔向选民承诺，与长期存在的腐败彻底决裂——这种腐败让总理的家人和朋友致富，却使匈牙利成为该地区经济增长最慢的国家。根据透明国际的年度排名，匈牙利是欧盟中最腐败的国家。

Eager to reach beyond Budapest liberals, who have loathed Mr. Orban for years, Mr. Magyar stayed far away from issues dear to progressives like L.G.B.T. rights. He campaigned mainly on his biggest asset: he is not Viktor Orban. The prospect of change, no matter in what direction, underpinned much of his support.

为了触及布达佩斯自由派——他们多年来一直厌恶欧尔班——以外的群体，毛焦尔刻意远离进步派所珍视的议题，如LGBT权利。他的竞选主要依靠最大的资产：他不是维克托·欧尔班。无论变革方向如何，“改变”的前景支撑了他的大部分支持。

The election delivered a major blow to Europe’s longest-serving government leader, and to those who look to him for inspiration and funding.

此次选举对欧洲任职时间最长的政府领导人，以及那些视他为鼓舞和资金来源的人，是一次重大打击。

Despite pressure from the European Union, whose rules he has persistently defied, Mr. Orban has been dogged in pursuing the goal he set in 2014 of “constructing in Hungary an illiberal state, a non-liberal state.”

尽管不断受到欧盟的压力——欧尔班向来拒不遵守其规则，他仍在顽固地追求2014年设定的目标：“在匈牙利建设一个反自由主义的、非自由主义的国家。”

Since then, Hungary has slid steadily down global rankings for personal and economic liberty, corruption and press freedom, becoming the first member of the European Union to drop from “free” to “partly free” in a 2019 ranking compiled by Freedom House.

自那以来，匈牙利在个人自由、经济自由、腐败和新闻自由的全球排名中持续下滑。2019年，自由之家发布的排名中，匈牙利成为第一个从“自由”降为“部分自由”的欧盟成员国。

Hungary, under Fidesz, established a host of research centers and other bodies offering well-paid work to American and other foreign conservatives who say they have been discriminated against in their home countries because of their views. It also hosted an annual conference in Budapest of the U.S. Conservative Political Action Committee, a fiesta of “anti-woke” speeches by right-wing politicians and pundits from around the world.

在青民盟执政下，匈牙利设立了一系列研究中心和其他机构，为那些声称因观点而在本国遭受歧视的美国和其他外国保守派提供高薪职位。它还在布达佩斯主办美国保守派政治行动委员会的年度会议，成为来自世界各地的右翼政客和评论员发表“反觉醒”演讲的盛会。

Mr. Magyar, speaking in Budapest soon after polls closed, declared himself “cautiously optimistic,” despite what he said had been “thousands of reports” of election tampering.

投票结束后不久，毛焦尔在布达佩斯发表讲话，称自己“谨慎乐观”，尽管他表示收到了“数千起”选举舞弊的报告。

“Even in the smallest township,” he said, “people have seen that this cruel, inhumane power is finished and Hungary will once again become a free country.”

“即使在最小的乡镇，”他说，“人们也看到，这个残酷、不人道的政权已经结束，匈牙利将再次成为一个自由的国家。”

More than three years of falling wholesale prices in China suddenly reversed in March as the rising cost of oil and other commodities began to affect a range of industries.

随着石油和其他大宗商品成本上升开始影响多个行业，中国批发价格连续三年多的跌势在3月份突然逆转。

Producer prices — mainly those charged by factories for wholesale purchases — climbed last month compared to a year earlier for the first time since September 2022, according to government data released on Friday.

根据周五发布的政府数据，生产者价格——主要是工厂针对批发采购制定的价格——上个月同比上涨，这是自2022年9月以来的首次。

The war in the Middle East, which started on Feb. 28 with strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, leading Iran to retaliate by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz, has prompted higher prices and shortages of energy and other commodities. For example, Persian Gulf exports previously accounted for nearly a tenth of the world’s aluminum.

在于2月28日爆发的中东战争中，美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击，导致伊朗以实际关闭霍尔木兹海峡的方式进行报复，从而推高了能源和其他大宗商品的价格，并造成短缺。例如，全球铝产量的近十分之一原本来自波斯湾的出口。

While governments in many countries, including in the United States and Europe, brace for the trauma of higher prices that eat into consumer spending, China had the opposite problem before the war.

包括美国和欧洲在内的许多国家政府正在为高物价带来的创伤做准备，这种高物价会侵蚀消费者支出，而战争爆发前，中国面临的问题却恰恰相反。

Falling wholesale prices have plagued the Chinese economy. Thousands of manufacturers have had to sell their goods for less and less. Consumer prices have also stagnated in China and occasionally fallen, helping to depress wages.

批发价格持续下跌一直困扰着中国经济。数以千计的制造商不得不以越来越低的价格出售商品。中国消费者价格也停滞不前，偶尔还会下跌，这进一步压低了工资。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release consumer price data for the United States on Friday in Washington. Those numbers will be scrutinized for the extent to which the Middle East war may be affecting inflation and affordability in the United States. Rising prices in China can seep through to prices in the United States, because much of America’s supply of manufactured goods comes directly from China or indirectly, through countries like Vietnam and Mexico.

美国劳工统计局定于周五在华盛顿发布消费者价格数据。这些数据将被仔细研究，以了解中东战争可能在多大程度上影响美国的通胀和支付能力。中国的价格上涨可能会传导到美国价格，因为美国的大部分制成品供应直接来自中国，或通过越南、墨西哥等国间接来自中国。

A broad fall in the price level across an economy, a phenomenon known as deflation, makes it hard for companies to pay their debts and their workers. Chinese policymakers have been so wary of deflation that they have banned the country’s economists from publicly discussing its dangers.

整个经济中物价水平的广泛下跌，即所谓的通货紧缩现象，会使企业难以偿还债务和支付工人工资。中国决策者对通缩极为警惕，以至于禁止本国经济学家公开讨论其危害。

Producer prices rose 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, led by increases in prices not just for fuel but also for aluminum. Producer prices fell 0.9 percent in February.

3月份生产者价格同比上涨0.5%，主要由燃料以及铝的价格上涨带动。2月份生产者价格则下跌了0.9%。

Because the increase in producer prices mainly involved higher prices for imported raw materials, however, the benefit for Chinese manufacturers’ profitability may be limited.

然而，由于生产者价格的上涨主要涉及进口原材料价格上涨，对中国制造商盈利能力的提振可能有限。

Inflation in consumer prices slowed slightly last month with the fading of a brief surge in spending during Lunar New Year celebrations in February.

上个月消费者价格通胀略有放缓，原因是2月份农历新年庆祝活动带来的短暂消费激增逐渐消退。

Consumer prices were up 1 percent in March from a year earlier, compared with 1.3 percent in February. Weak spending in China, mainly the result of a prolonged housing market downturn, has made it hard for companies to raise retail prices.

3月份消费者价格同比上涨1%，低于2月份的1.3%。中国消费疲弱（主要是房地产市场长期低迷所致）使得企业难以提高零售价格。

China also has a surfeit of pigs that has driven down prices for pork, a staple of the Chinese diet and an important component of the country’s Consumer Price Index. Wholesale pork prices hit an eight-year low in March.

中国还存在生猪过剩的问题，这压低了猪肉价格。猪肉是中国饮食中不可或缺的食材，也是中国消费者价格指数的重要组成部分。3月份猪肉批发价格创下八年新低。

Melania Trump summoned reporters to the White House Thursday afternoon to give a surprise statement about Jeffrey Epstein, saying she had no relationship with him, was not a victim of his and had no knowledge of his crimes.

周四下午，梅拉尼娅·特朗普在白宫召集记者，就杰弗里·爱泼斯坦事件发表了一份出人意料的声明，称她与爱泼斯坦不存在任何关系，也不是他的受害者，对其犯罪活动一无所知。

In remarks that lasted just under six minutes, she said she wanted to clear “my good name.” She addressed rumors about the origin story of how she met her husband, the president of the United States. And she called on Congress to give a hearing to victims of Mr. Epstein’s crimes.

在这段时长不足六分钟的讲话中，她表示希望为“我的清白声誉”正名。她还回应了关于她如何与其丈夫——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普相识的传闻，并呼吁国会为爱泼斯坦案件的受害者举行听证会。

“The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today,” Mrs. Trump said. She talked about “numerous fake images and statements about Epstein and me” that “have been percolating on social media for years now.”

“那些将我与可耻的杰弗里·爱泼斯坦联系在一起的谎言今天必须结束，”梅拉尼娅·特朗普说。她提到，“大量关于爱泼斯坦和我的虚假图片和说法”“多年来一直在社交媒体上发酵”。

It was not clear why she chose to speak out now, or to what reports she was referring.

目前尚不清楚她为何选择在此时发声，也不清楚她具体指的是哪些报道。

A spokesperson for Mrs. Trump said the president knew that the first lady planned to make a statement, but later said it was not clear if Mr. Trump was aware of the topic of her remarks. In a phone call with an MS Now reporter, Mr. Trump said he had no prior knowledge of what she had planned to say.

梅拉尼娅的发言人表示，总统知道第一夫人计划发表声明，但随后又称不确定特朗普是否了解她发言的具体内容。在与MS Now记者通电话时，特朗普表示，他事先并不知道她打算说什么。

The White House did not respond to questions about what the president knew on the matter and when.

白宫没有回应有关总统何时知道此事、具体了解多少的提问。

The first lady’s statement is sure to supercharge a narrative that the Trump administration has been struggling to make go away since last summer, when chunks of the MAGA base broke into open revolt against Mr. Trump over his handling of the Epstein investigation.

第一夫人的声明肯定会加剧一种舆论叙事，这种叙事正是特朗普政府自去年夏天以来一直竭力平息却收效甚微的。当时，由于不满特朗普对爱泼斯坦案调查的处理方式，MAGA基本盘中有相当一部分人公开对其表示反对。

The scandal has burbled all year, the president’s supporters refusing to move on from it no matter how many times he instructs them to. Just last week, Pam Bondi lost her job as attorney general in part over her failure to contain the furor. She is still tangled up in it.

这一丑闻全年都在持续发酵，无论总统多少次要求他的支持者们放下此事，他们都拒绝就此翻篇。就在上周，帕姆·邦迪因此事失去了司法部长一职，部分原因就是她未能平息这场风波。她至今仍深陷其中。

What Mrs. Trump said on Thursday may have been designed to clear her own name, but it certainly won’t help the West Wing escape its Epstein troubles.

梅拉尼娅·特朗普周四的言论或许是为了自证清白，但这肯定无助于白宫方面摆脱爱泼斯坦事件的困扰。

The first lady started her remarks by recalling the era when she met her husband, and, apparently, Mr. Epstein.

第一夫人在发言一开始回顾了她与丈夫相识的那段时期，而且显然，她也是在那个时期结识了爱泼斯坦先生。

“Donald and I were invited to the same parties as Epstein from time to time, since overlapping in social circles is common in New York City,” Mrs. Trump explained to the small group of stunned reporters arrayed in the entrance hall of the White House. The first time she ever “crossed paths with Epstein” was in 2000, she said, “at an event Donald and I attended together.”

“唐纳德和我偶尔会和爱泼斯坦受邀参加同样的派对，因为在纽约，社交圈重叠是很常见的，”梅拉尼娅·特朗普向聚集在白宫门厅、显得颇为震惊的一小群记者解释道。她说，她第一次“与爱泼斯坦产生交集”是在2000年，“在一次我和唐纳德一同出席的活动上”。

2000年2月，唐纳德·特朗普及女友梅拉尼娅·克瑙斯与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦和吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦在特朗普位于佛罗里达的马阿拉歌庄园合影。

“Epstein did not introduce me to Donald Trump,” she said. “I met my husband by chance at a New York City party in 1998. This initial encounter with my husband is documented in detail in my book.”

“爱泼斯坦并没有把我介绍给唐纳德·特朗普，”她说，“1998年，我在纽约市的一个派对上偶然遇到了我的丈夫。关于这次初次相遇，在我的书中有详细记载。”

The encounter she was referring to is a story she has told over many years about meeting Mr. Trump in 1998 at the Kit Kat Club. She has always said that it was Paolo Zampolli, an Italian modeling agent, who introduced her to Mr. Trump.

她所指的这次相遇，是她多年来反复讲述的一个故事：1998年，她在Kit Kat俱乐部与特朗普相识。她一直表示，是意大利模特经纪人保罗·赞波利将她介绍给特朗普的。

Reached by phone in Milan on Thursday, Mr. Zampolli affirmed Mrs. Trump’s account and said “I’m ready to testify in Congress” that he introduced the couple that night at the Kit Kat Club.

周四在米兰接受电话采访时，赞波利证实了梅拉尼娅的说法，并表示“我准备好在国会作证”，证明那天晚上在Kit Kat俱乐部是他介绍两人相识的。

Mr. Zampolli did business with Mr. Epstein and appears several times in the Epstein files.

赞波利与爱泼斯坦存在业务往来，并在爱泼斯坦文件中多次出现。

Mrs. Trump’s name appeared in the Epstein files, too — another matter she evidently wanted to clear up on Thursday. In a 2002 email written to Ghislaine Maxwell, a woman named “Melania” wrote to Ms. Maxwell to praise a profile of Mr. Epstein in New York magazine. Ms. Maxwell called the woman “sweet pea,” and the woman signed her email “Love.”

梅拉尼娅的名字也出现在爱泼斯坦文件中——这显然是她在周四想要澄清的另一件事。在2002年一封写给吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦的电子邮件中，一个名叫“梅拉尼娅”的女子写信给麦克斯韦，称赞《纽约》杂志一篇爱泼斯坦的人物特写稿件。麦克斯韦称这名女子为“小甜心”，而该女子在邮件中署名“爱你的”。

On Thursday, the first lady addressed her correspondence with Ms. Maxwell: “To be clear, I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice Maxwell. My email reply to Maxwell cannot be categorized as anything more than casual correspondence.”

周四，第一夫人回应了她与麦克斯韦的通信：“需要明确的是，我从未与爱泼斯坦或其同伙麦克斯韦有任何关系。我对马克斯韦尔的邮件回复只能算是普通的通信。”

The hydra-headed Epstein scandal has ensnared so many people who’ve walked the halls of the White House that the first lady seemed intent on setting herself apart.

牵涉甚广的爱泼斯坦丑闻已将太多曾在白宫出入的人卷入其中，以至于第一夫人似乎希望将自己与这滩浑水划清界限。

“I was never on Epstein’s plane,” she insisted, “and never visited his private island.”

“我从未登上过爱泼斯坦的飞机，”她坚称，“也从未去过他的私人岛屿。”

The same cannot be said for her husband, whose name appeared on the flight logs for Mr. Epstein’s plane several times, or for the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who acknowledged in a Senate hearing earlier this year that he’d traveled to Mr. Epstein’s island.

但她的丈夫却不能这样说——其名字曾多次出现在爱泼斯坦飞机的飞行日志上；而商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克也在今年早些时候的一场参议院听证会上承认，他曾前往爱泼斯坦的岛。

And so there the first lady stood on Thursday, trying to distance herself from all things Epstein. She slammed those who would peddle “false smears” against her and cited people and publishers who’ve issued public apologies to her in the past. Among them: The Democratic operative James Carville; Harper Collins UK; The Daily Beast.

于是，周四第一夫人站在那里，试图与一切跟爱泼斯坦相关的东西划清界限。她猛烈抨击那些兜售针对她的“不实抹黑”的人，并列举了过去曾向她公开道歉的人士和出版机构，其中包括民主党策略师詹姆斯·卡维尔、哈珀柯林斯英国分公司以及《每日野兽》网。

“Be cautious about what you believe,” Mrs. Trump warned.

“对你所信的事情要保持谨慎，”梅拉尼娅·特朗普警告说。

She shifted the focus to the victims of Mr. Epstein’s crimes. “I call on Congress to provide the women who have been victimized by Epstein with the public hearing specifically centered around the survivors,” she said. “Give these victims their opportunity to testify under oath in front of Congress.”

她随后将话题转向爱泼斯坦罪行的受害者。“我呼吁国会为那些遭受爱泼斯坦侵害的女性举行公开听证会，专门围绕幸存者展开，”她说。“让这些受害者有机会在国会面前宣誓作证。”

去年9月，在国会大厦前举行的声援爱泼斯坦案受害者的“与幸存者站在一起”集会。

The House Oversight Committee has been investigating Mr. Epstein and the federal government’s handling of the case against him since last year. The inquiry grew from the furor over the Trump administration’s backtracking on a decision to release its full investigative material.

自去年以来，众议院监督委员会一直在调查爱泼斯坦案以及联邦政府对此案的处理方式。这项调查源于特朗普政府在公布完整调查材料的决定上出尔反尔所引发的强烈不满。

Representative Robert Garcia of California, the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee, said in an interview that he agreed with Mrs. Trump’s call for a public hearing, adding that Democrats had been pushing Republicans to hold one for months. He also said that Mrs. Trump’s comments seemed to reject Mr. Trump’s frequent contention that the Epstein investigation was a “hoax” pushed by Democrats.

监督委员会资深民主党人、加州众议员罗伯特·加西亚在接受采访时表示，他同意梅拉尼娅关于举行公开听证会的呼吁，并补充说，民主党人数月来一直在敦促共和党人这样做。他还表示，梅拉尼娅的言论似乎驳斥了特朗普经常声称的爱泼斯坦调查是民主党推动的“骗局”的说法。

In recent months, Mr. Trump has tried to dismiss the Epstein controversy. He told the country it’s time to “move on” and snapped at a reporter who asked him what his message would be to Mr. Epstein’s victims.

近几个月来，特朗普一直试图淡化围绕爱泼斯坦的争议。他曾告诉全国公众，是时候“向前看”，并厉声斥责一名问他想对爱泼斯坦受害者说些什么的记者。

On Thursday, his wife struck a different tone: “Every woman should have her day to tell her story in public, if she wishes.”

周四，他的妻子则采取了不同的语气：“每一位女性都应该有机会在公众面前讲述自己的经历，如果她愿意的话。”

And then she turned on her stiletto heels and stalked out as the dazed reporters started shouting after her: “Why now!? Why now!?”

随后，她踩着细高跟鞋转身离去，留下茫然的记者们在她身后开始大喊：“为什么是现在！？为什么是现在！？”

As wars rage and American alliances look less certain, China’s leader Xi Jinping is making a renewed case to Taiwan: Its future lies not with Washington, but with Beijing.

在战火肆虐、美国的盟友关系显得越来越不确定之际，中国领导人习近平正在向台湾重新传递一个信息：台湾的未来取决于北京而不是华盛顿。

Mr. Xi delivered that message implicitly in a rare meeting in Beijing on Friday with Cheng Li-wun, the chairwoman of the Nationalist Party, Taiwan’s main opposition party.

习近平周五在北京与台湾主要反对党国民党主席郑丽文举行了一次罕见的会晤，含蓄地传达了这一信息。

The meeting underscored how Beijing is trying to shape Taiwan’s politics by courting parties more open to its stance and spurning those that are not. Beijing shuns Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is its territory. But China maintains ties with the Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with Beijing.

此次会晤凸显出，北京正试图通过拉拢对其立场持相对开放态度的政党、冷落那些抗拒的政党来塑造台湾的政治格局。北京拒绝与台湾执政的民进党打交道，因为后者不接受北京关于台湾是中国领土的主张。但中国与国民党保持着联系，国民党主张与北京进行更密切的接触。

“The world today is far from tranquil, and peace is all the more precious,” Mr. Xi told Ms. Cheng at the opening of their talks, according to a Taiwanese television broadcast of the meeting. “Compatriots on both sides of the strait are Chinese, one family, and the desire for peace, development, exchanges and cooperation is a shared aspiration.”

根据台湾电视节目中的会晤画面，习近平在会谈开始时对郑丽文说：“今天的世界并不太平，和平弥足珍贵。两岸同胞都是中国人、一家人。要和平、要发展、要交流、要合作是共同心声。”

In her response, Ms. Cheng cited Mr. Xi’s slogan for his program of national revival, saying that “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the shared rejuvenation of people on both sides of the strait.”

郑丽文在回应中引用了习近平的民族复兴口号，表示“中华民族伟大复兴是两岸人民的共同复兴”。

Ms. Cheng is the first sitting Nationalist leader in a decade to hold talks with Mr. Xi. Mr. Xi’s outreach appears aimed at increasing pressure on Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, who wants Taiwan to forge a future separate from China. The meeting elevates a rival of Lai’s and potentially undercuts his argument that Taiwan must rely on Washington to deter threats from Beijing.

郑丽文是十年来首位与习近平举行会谈的现任国民党领导人。习近平此次伸出橄榄枝似乎旨在加大对台湾总统、民进党的赖清德的压力。赖清德希望台湾走出一条与中国分离的路。此次会晤提升了赖清德政敌的地位，并可能削弱他关于台湾必须依靠华盛顿来威慑北京威胁的论点。

Mr. Lai has proposed increasing Taiwan’s military spending through a $40 billion package to be spent across eight years, on top of the regular budget outlays.

赖清德提议，在常规预算支出之外，通过一项为期八年的400亿美元一揽子计划来增加台湾的军事开支。

“Xi wants to cast doubt in Taiwan over the Lai Ching-te administration’s focus on self-defense by showing the benefits of a more conciliatory stance toward China,” said Amanda Hsiao, a director on China policy in the Eurasia Group, a consultancy firm.

“习近平希望表明，采取倾向于和解的对华立场是有好处的，从而让台湾民众对赖清德政府专注于自我防卫的做法产生怀疑，”咨询公司欧亚集团中国政策主任萧嫣然(Amanda Hsiao)说。

The talks with Ms. Cheng could also serve a tactical purpose for Mr. Xi as he prepares for a summit with President Trump in China next month. “This narrative of China as peacemaker could also help Xi make a more convincing argument to Trump for why the U.S. president should, for example, hold off on arms sales to Taiwan,” Ms. Hsiao said.

与郑丽文的会谈对习近平来说也可能具有战术意义，因为他正准备下个月在中国与特朗普总统举行峰会。“中国作为和平缔造者的这一叙事，也能帮助习近平向特朗普提出更有说服力的理由，例如为什么美国总统应该暂缓对台军售，”萧嫣然说。

But Mr. Xi’s message may struggle to gain traction with Taiwanese voters. Even as Mr. Trump’s tariffs have dented Taiwanese public confidence in the United States, confidence in China remains even lower. Thirty-four percent of Taiwanese said the United States was a “credible country,” according to a survey in January by Academia Sinica, a research academy in Taiwan, compared with 17 percent who said the same about China.

但习近平传递的信息可能难以在台湾选民中获得共鸣。尽管特朗普的关税削弱了台湾民众对美国的信心，但台湾人对中国的信心仍然更低。根据台湾中央研究院1月份的一项调查，34%的台湾人认为美国是“可信赖的国家”，认为中国可信赖的比例仅为17%。

China may offer trade and other economic incentives to entice Taiwan to grow closer to Beijing. But that inducement is undercut by Beijing’s sustained military pressure on Taiwan, including in recent years exercises that simulate blockades and amphibious assaults.

中国可能会提供贸易和其他经济诱因来吸引台湾与北京走得更近。但这一诱惑却被北京对台湾持续的军事压力所削弱，包括近年来模拟封锁和两栖攻击的军演。

“If Cheng Li-wun wants Taiwanese people to clearly feel she has accomplished something in her trip, the fastest way would be reducing Chinese military activity against Taiwan,” said Wei-feng Tzeng, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei who studies cross-strait relations. “But that is unlikely because she doesn’t have the chips to negotiate this with Xi Jinping. She’s an opposition leader after all.”

“如果郑丽文希望台湾民众清楚地感觉到她此行有所收获，最快的方式就是减少中国针对台湾的军事活动，”台北国立政治大学研究两岸关系的曾伟峰教授说，“但这不太可能，因为她没有资本去与习近平谈这个问题。她毕竟只是反对党领导人。”

Still, Mr. Xi and Ms. Cheng appear to be betting that Taiwan’s voters will be drawn to a message of rapprochement with Beijing, especially in a more turbulent world.

尽管如此，习近平和郑丽文指望的似乎是，在一个更加动荡的世界中，台湾选民会被与北京的和解信息所吸引。

“The flames of war are spreading and people are fearful,” Ms. Cheng said at a Nationalist Party meeting in Taipei before departing for China on Tuesday. “In Taiwan, we must exhaust every effort to avoid war breaking out.”

“不可讳言，现在整体的国际环境动荡不安、战火蔓延、人心惶惶，”郑丽文周二启程前往中国前，在台北的一次国民党会议上表示，“在台湾，我们要竭尽一切的努力避免战争的发生。”

In her youth, Ms. Cheng was a fiery proponent of independence for Taiwan. But now she says she is proudly Chinese, as well as Taiwanese, and argues that a shared culture can heal divisions.

年轻时代的郑丽文曾强烈支持台湾独立。但现在她说，自己既是一个自豪的台湾人，也是一个中国人，并认为共同的文化可以弥合分歧。

She has cast the visit as a “journey of peace,” invoking a 2005 trip by a previous Nationalist leader that reopened talks with the Chinese Communist Party after decades of hostility.

她将此次访问定位为“和平之旅”，呼应了2005年国民党前领导人的一次大陆访问，那次访问在数十年的敌对之后重新开启了与中国共产党之间的对话。

Your cholesterol levels can affect your risk of heart disease and stroke. And the longer you have high cholesterol, the greater your risk.

胆固醇水平会影响罹患心脏病和中风的风险。胆固醇水平偏高持续的时间越长，患病风险就越高。

That’s why leading medical groups recommend getting your cholesterol checked regularly, and working to lower your levels even when they’re only slightly elevated, in some cases. Last month, the American College of Cardiology and other medical organizations released new guidelines to help patients and doctors know what cholesterol levels to aim for, and which medications might help.

正因为如此，主流医学团体建议定期检测胆固醇水平，在某些情况下，胆固醇水平即使只是轻度升高，也要着手开始降低。上个月，美国心脏病学会联合多家医学机构发布了新版指南，帮助患者和医生明确胆固醇的控制目标，以及适用的药物方案。

We asked doctors to break down the recommendations.

我们邀请医生对这份指南进行了详细解读。

To start, know your levels.

首先，了解自己的胆固醇水平

The guidelines recommend that adults, starting at age 19, have their cholesterol checked at least every five years. (Before that, children should have their cholesterol checked once, between ages 9 to 11, to screen for inherited high cholesterol.)

指南建议，19岁及以上的成年人至少每五年检测一次胆固醇。（在此之前，儿童应在9-11岁期间检测一次胆固醇，筛查遗传性高胆固醇。）

A lipid panel, which you can have done with a blood draw at your primary care doctor’s office, looks at several types of cholesterol. Of these, doctors focus most on low-density lipoprotein, or LDL, a “bad cholesterol” that can build up in your artery walls. We have “overwhelming evidence” that the lower your LDL levels, the lower your risk of a cardiovascular event like a heart attack or a stroke, said Dr. Erin D. Michos, associate director of preventive cardiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

血脂检测只需在全科医生诊室抽血即可完成，会检测多种胆固醇指标。其中，医生最关注低密度脂蛋白(LDL)——也就是会在动脉壁沉积的“坏胆固醇”。约翰斯·霍普金斯大学医学院预防心脏病学副主任艾琳·米科斯表示，我们有“压倒性的证据“，表明低密度脂蛋白水平越低，心脏病发作、中风等心血管事件的风险就越低。”

The guidelines also recommend that all adults now have levels of Lipoprotein(a), a genetically determined form of cholesterol, tested at least once. Lp(a) increases the risk of heart disease, regardless of your other lipid levels. “It’s an amplifier of whatever your risk is,” said Dr. Ann Marie Navar, an associate professor of cardiology at the U.T. Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas. We reach our adult levels in childhood, and they remain relatively stable over a lifetime, with a few exceptions.

指南还新增要求：所有成年人至少检测一次脂蛋白(a)[Lp(a)]——这是一种由基因决定的胆固醇类型。无论其他血脂指标如何，脂蛋白(a)升高都会增加心脏病风险。达拉斯德克萨斯大学西南医学中心心脏病学副教授安·玛丽·纳瓦尔说：“它会放大你本身现有的任何风险。” 脂蛋白(a)水平在童年时期就达到成人水平，除少数例外情况，一生都相对稳定。

There’s another, less widely used test for a different lipoprotein called ApoB. This is perhaps the best measure of cholesterol related risk, Dr. Navar said, because it reflects the total number of “bad” cholesterol particles, including not just LDL, but also Lp(a) and another type called vLDL. This makes it a more reliable measure, especially for people with metabolic disease, including diabetes and cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, because of differences in LDL particle size and density in these patients.

还有一种应用较少的检测，针对载脂蛋白B(ApoB)。纳瓦尔表示，这或许是评估胆固醇相关风险的最佳指标，因为它反映了所有“坏”胆固醇颗粒的总数，不仅包括低密度脂蛋白，还包括脂蛋白(a)和极低密度脂蛋白(vLDL)。因此这一指标更为可靠，尤其是对于糖尿病、心肾代谢综合征等代谢性疾病患者而言，因为这类患者的低密度脂蛋白颗粒大小和密度存在差异。

Determine your individual risk.

评估个人患病风险

It’s never too early to talk with your doctor about your risk of heart disease, and you should build heart-healthy habits like eating a Mediterranean-style or DASH diet and exercising regularly as soon as possible. But starting at age 30, the conversation can include an actual prediction of your future risk. The guidelines use a new calculator, called PREVENT, that includes risk factors that weren’t previously taken into account, including body mass index and kidney disease.

和医生讨论心脏病风险永远不嫌太早，而且你应该尽早养成有益心脏的生活习惯，比如坚持地中海饮食或得舒饮食、规律运动。但从30岁开始，这种讨论可以包含对未来风险的实际预测。指南采用了一款名为PREVENT的新型风险计算工具，纳入了此前未被考虑的危险因素，包括体重指数和肾脏疾病。

It assesses both short-term (10-year) and long-term (30-year) risk.

该工具可同时评估短期（10年）和长期（30年）患病风险。

Measuring long-term risk is particularly useful for people 30 to 59. Doctors might look at a younger patient who isn’t at risk of heart disease in the next 10 years, but could be in the long-term, and recommend that they start taking a statin.

长期风险评估对30-59岁人群尤为重要。有些年轻患者未来10年的心脏病风险较低，但长期风险较高，医生可能会建议他们提前开始服用他汀类药物。

“We want to reduce their lifetime exposure” to these bad cholesterol particles, Dr. Michos said. “The risk is not only how high a level is, it’s how many years one’s arteries are exposed to these high levels,” similar to how doctors look at “pack-years” of smoking.

“我们希望减少他们一生中接触这些坏胆固醇颗粒的时间，”米科斯说。“风险不仅取决于胆固醇水平有多高，还取决于动脉暴露在高胆固醇环境中的年数。”这和医生评估吸烟者的‘包年’（每天吸烟包数乘以吸烟年数——译注）是同一个道理。

People who are at low 10-year risk don’t typically need to start medication, unless they have an LDL level of 160 mg/dL or greater, or have a high 30-year risk.

10年风险较低的人群通常不需要用药，除非低密度脂蛋白水平≥160mg/dL，或30年风险较高。

For people who are at borderline or intermediate risk, a coronary arterial calcium (CAC) score — which uses a low-dose CT scan to look for evidence of plaque buildup in the heart arteries — can help with decision making. That evidence can be a powerful motivator for asymptomatic patients to take medication, said Dr. Martha Gulati, a professor of cardiology at Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center.

对于临界风险或中等风险人群，冠状动脉钙化(CAC)评分（通过低剂量CT扫描检测心脏动脉内的斑块沉积情况）可以帮助医生做出决策。休斯顿卫理公会德贝基心脏与血管中心心脏病学教授玛莎·古拉蒂表示，检测结果能有效促使无症状患者接受药物治疗。

In considering treatment, doctors also take into account other factors that might raise a person’s risk of heart disease, such as South Asian race, diabetes, early menopause, pre-eclampsia or gestational diabetes, for example. They also consider inflammatory conditions like rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis, since inflammation contributes to plaque buildup in the arteries.

在制定治疗方案时，医生还会考虑其他增加心脏病风险的因素，比如南亚裔、糖尿病、早绝经、先兆子痫或妊娠期糖尿病，以及类风湿性关节炎、银屑病等炎症性疾病,因为炎症会加速动脉斑块的形成。

Know your goal.

明确目标

The new guidelines give specific target levels of LDL based on short- and long-term risk of heart disease.

新版指南根据心脏病的短期和长期风险，给出了具体的低密度脂蛋白目标值：

•For general prevention of heart disease in people who are at borderline or intermediate 10-year risk and don’t have diabetes or heart disease, the goal is an LDL level under 100 mg/dL.

· 对于10年风险为临界或中等、且无糖尿病或心脏病的普通人群，其一般性预防目标为低密度脂蛋白＜100mg/dL

•For patients at high 10-year risk, people with longstanding Type 2 diabetes or complications of diabetes, or people with CAC scores over 100, the goal is under 70 mg/dL.

· 对于10年高风险人群、长期二型糖尿病患者或糖尿病并发症患者、以及冠状动脉钙化评分＞100分的人群，目标为低密度脂蛋白＜70mg/dL

•For most patients who have already had a heart attack or a stroke, the goal is under 55 mg/dL. This might seem like an especially aggressive goal. But “with very intensive cholesterol lowering, we can actually shrink plaque,” Dr. Michos said, reducing the risk of future cardiovascular issues.

·对于大多数已经发生过心脏病发作或中风的患者，目标为低密度脂蛋白＜55mg/dL。这个目标看起来尤为激进，但米科斯博士表示：“通过高强度降胆固醇治疗，我们实际上可以缩小斑块体积”，从而降低未来心血管事件的风险。

Work with your doctor to find the right medication plan.

和医生共同制定合适的用药方案

Most patients with continuously high cholesterol levels will need medication. Statins, which block the liver from making cholesterol, are still the first line of treatment. “They’re cheap,” Dr. Gulati said. “We’ve had them for over four decades. They reduce bad cardiovascular outcomes.”

大多数胆固醇持续升高的患者都需要药物治疗。他汀类药物通过抑制肝脏合成胆固醇发挥作用，目前仍是一线治疗方案。“这类药物价格低廉，”古拉蒂博士说。“我们使用它们已经有40多年，能有效减少不良心血管事件的发生。”

“They’re good drugs despite their bad P.R.,” she added, referring to common concerns about side effects. She noted that in randomized controlled trials, people who took a placebo experienced the same side effects as those who took statins.

“尽管公关形象不好，但它们其实是好药，”她还说，这里指的是人们对他汀类药物副作用的普遍担忧。她指出，在随机对照试验中，服用安慰剂的人群和服用他汀类药物的人群，报告的副作用发生率并无差异。

But there are also many other medications at doctors’ disposal, including ezetimibe, which inhibits the absorption of cholesterol from food; bempedoic acid, which blocks production of cholesterol in the liver; and a much newer class of drugs called PCSK9 inhibitors, which help the liver clear LDL from the blood. (The PCSK9 inhibitors are currently approved as injections, but trials for a pill form are also underway.)

不过医生还有很多其他药物可选，包括：抑制肠道吸收食物中胆固醇的依折麦布；能阻断肝脏胆固醇合成的贝派地酸；以及更新的药物PCSK9抑制剂，它能帮助肝脏清除血液中的低密度脂蛋白。（PCSK9抑制剂目前获批的剂型为注射剂，但口服剂型的临床试验也在进行中。）

“If you try a statin and can’t tolerate it, we have other medications,” Dr. Navar said. “If you try a statin but you’re not at goal, you may need more than one medication.”

“如果服用他汀类药物不耐受，我们还有其他选择，”纳瓦尔说。“如果服用他汀类药物后仍未达到目标，可能需要联合使用多种药物。”

“There are a lot of options out there,” she added.

“现在的治疗方案非常丰富，”她还说。

Historical analogies are never exact. But with the tenuous cease-fire deal in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, some are asking whether this is a “Suez” moment for the United States, marking the waning of American power and credibility in the world.

历史类比从来都不是完全准确的。但随着美以对伊战争达成脆弱的停火协议，有人开始质疑：这是否标志着美国面临“苏伊士时刻”，预示着美国全球实力与公信力的正式衰退？

The Suez crisis took place in October 1956, when Britain, France and Israel attacked Egypt to force open the Suez Canal. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, with an election days away, ordered them to stop. Prime Minister Anthony Eden of Britain resigned. President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt became a hero of anti-colonialism.

苏伊士危机发生在1956年10月，当时英国、法国与以色列联合进攻埃及，试图强行重开苏伊士运河。当时距离大选仅剩数日，美国总统艾森豪威尔下令三国立即停火。英国首相安东尼·艾登随后辞职，埃及总统贾迈勒·阿卜杜勒·纳赛尔则成为了反殖民主义的英雄。

Suez became shorthand for the moment that Britain, exhausted from World War II, gave way as a global power to the United States.

苏伊士从此成为一个代名词，象征着二战后元气大伤的英国将全球主导地位让给美国。

There are differences from that time. The Suez Canal is man-made and wholly in Egyptian territory, unlike the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no other global power capable of replacing America in the region, let alone ordering President Trump around.

如今的情况与当时有所不同。与作为国际水道的霍尔木兹海峡不同，苏伊士运河是人工开凿的，且完全位于埃及领土内。如今也没有任何其他全球大国有能力在该地区取代美国，更遑论对特朗普总统发号施令。

But the two-week cease-fire leaves the Islamic Republic in place and still in command of the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s nuclear stockpile and ballistic missile program unresolved. After Mr. Trump’s declaration of victory, however hollow, it is difficult to imagine a resumption of full-scale war.

但这份为期两周的停火协议让伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权得以存续，且依然掌控着霍尔木兹海峡的未来，伊朗的核储备与弹道导弹计划问题也仍未解决。尽管特朗普的胜利宣言空洞无物，但很难想象全面战争会再度爆发。

For the rest of the world, the war “is starting to look like a military defeat, more serious than Iraq or Afghanistan,” said Bruno Maçães, former secretary of state for European affairs for Portugal.

葡萄牙前欧洲事务国务秘书布鲁诺·马萨埃斯表示，对世界其他国家而言，这场战争“已经开始显现出军事失败的迹象，其严重性甚至超过伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争”。

“The myth of America as all-powerful is important,” he added, “and it’s the basic requirement of a global hegemon to keep the oil flowing, to open up the strait and keep it open. This belief in an all-powerful America that can solve anything is disappearing.”

“美国无所不能的神话至关重要，”他还说。“保障石油流通、打通海峡并维持海峡畅通是全球霸主的基本职责。而这种相信美国能解决一切问题的信念正在消失。”

Keeping sea lanes open for American goods and global trade is one of the few permanent interests the United States has in the Middle East, as well as in Asia.

保障美国商品与全球贸易的航道畅通是美国在中东乃至亚洲为数不多的永久利益之一。

The war in Iran shut down the strait. Now, the Iranian military is still in control of the passageway and is likely to demand large tolls. “The strategic rationale for the American military presence in the region has taken a huge hit,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

这场对伊战争导致了海峡关闭。如今，伊朗军方依然掌控着这条航道，且很可能会收取高额通行费。“美国在该地区军事存在的战略合理性已经遭受了重创，”华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员斯蒂芬·韦特海姆说。

The Suez analogy works, Mr. Wertheim said, in that the war in Iran demonstrated “in a single incident the danger of American misgovernance and poor judgment.”

韦特海姆认为，苏伊士的类比之所以成立，是因为这场对伊战争“通过单一事件”，集中揭示了“美国治理失能与决策失误所造成的巨大风险”。

1956年11月，埃及为封锁苏伊士运河而击沉的一艘船。

The war itself and its uncertain outcome, he said, “just accelerates an existing worry shared by countries around the world about what America’s declining quality of governance means for what they can expect from the United States.”

他表示，这场战争本身及其不确定的结局“只会加剧全球各国早已存在的担忧：美国治理能力持续下滑会让各国对美国还能抱有哪些期待呢”。

America’s allies may be unhappy, perplexed and even angry about Trump administration policies, but many of them, especially those in the Persian Gulf and Asia suffering the impact of energy shortages and restrictions, have few other options for security partners.

美国的盟友或许对特朗普政府的政策感到不满、困惑甚至愤怒，但其中许多国家——尤其是饱受能源短缺与限制冲击的波斯湾和亚洲国家——几乎没有其他安全伙伴可选。

But the war and cease-fire deal have diminished American influence and will affect how the allies of the United States view its reliability, said Charles A. Kupchan, a political scientist and director of European studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

但外交关系委员会政治学家、欧洲研究主任查尔斯·库普钱表示，这场战争与停火协议已经削弱了美国的影响力，并将改变盟友对美国可靠性的看法。

The war against Iran was not begun in consultation with allies. And it came after a series of events that have confounded them. Mr. Trump’s tariff wars were an unpleasant shock, but his threat to take Greenland by force if necessary from Denmark, a European and NATO ally, is seen as an inflection point about American predation, unreliability and contempt for traditional friends.

这场对伊战争是在未与盟友商议的情况下发起的。而在此之前，一系列事件早已让盟友们错愕不已。特朗普的关税战已经令人不快，但他威胁必要时将从欧洲盟友及北约盟友丹麦手中武力夺取格陵兰岛更被视为一个转折点，凸显出美国的掠夺性、不可靠性以及对传统盟友的蔑视。

“The Iran war and its economic impact are piling on and reinforce this sense that the U.S. right now has become unpredictable and undependable,” Mr. Kupchan said.

“对伊战争及其经济影响雪上加霜，进一步强化了这样一种认知：如今的美国已经变得不可预测、不可信赖，”库普钱说。

International relations and alliances work on trust. But as Francis Fukuyama of Stanford University wrote on Tuesday, “There has never been a time when the United States was more distrusted, by both traditional friends and by rivals, as at the present.”

国际关系与联盟的基石是信任。但正如斯坦福大学的弗朗西斯·福山周二所写：“美国从未像现在这样，同时遭到传统盟友与对手的普遍不信任。”

A successful dealmaker, he said, needs to generate a minimal amount of trust that he will uphold his end of the bargain. “But reciprocity is a virtue that Trump has never understood or practiced,” he said.

他表示，一个成功的交易者至少需要让对方相信自己会信守承诺。“但互惠原则是特朗普从未理解也从未践行过的美德。”

The war had challenged Washington’s argument that its global primacy was vital to the safety of international trade and the world order. This has been the main justification for the many American bases around the world, and especially in the Middle East.

这场战争动摇了华盛顿长期以来的论调，即美国的全球主导地位对国际贸易安全与世界秩序至关重要。这也是美国在全球各地、尤其是在中东设立众多军事基地的主要理由。

But the war has shown the United States instead acting as a force of disorder and disruption.

但这场战争表明，美国反而成为了制造混乱与动荡的力量。

“By engaging in a war of choice in a critical region for global trade and utterly ignoring the probable consequences for the economies of its closest allies, the Trump administration has destroyed the legitimacy of American power,” asserted Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

“在一个对全球贸易至关重要的地区发动一场自己选择的战争，且完全无视其最亲密盟友的经济可能遭受的后果，特朗普政府已经彻底摧毁了美国霸权的合法性，”昆西负责任治国研究所的阿纳托尔·利文断言。

The impact of a diminished United States is strongest in Europe, which has relied on NATO and the American security guarantee implicit in membership, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella. But Europeans drew a distinction between faith in America and faith in Mr. Trump. The former remains because it is vital for European security.

美国实力衰退的影响在欧洲最为显著。欧洲长期依赖北约以及成员国身份所隐含的美国安全保障——包括美国的核保护伞。但欧洲人已经将对美国的信任与对特朗普个人的信任区分开来。前者依然存在，因为它对欧洲安全至关重要。

Still, Mr. Trump’s policies are inevitably producing a response that will outlast him. The rest of the world is trying to organize itself and derisk from an America that treats its allies as enemies and its traditional enemies, like Russia and China, as friends.

尽管如此，特朗普的政策不可避免地催生了一种应对方式，其影响将超出他的任期——世界各国正在尝试重新调整自身，以规避来自美国的风险——一个将盟友视为敌人、却将俄罗斯和中国等传统对手视为朋友的美国。

Asked if American hegemony has been diminished, the foreign minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, said, “We hope not, but we fear it might be.”

当被问及美国霸权是否已经削弱时，波兰外长拉多斯瓦夫·西科尔斯基表示：“我们希望不会，但我们担心事实正是如此。”

周一，特朗普总统在白宫举行的新闻发布会上。

NATO has taken a hit from Mr. Trump’s overall policies. He continually calls it “a paper tiger,” despite successfully pushing its members to spend considerably more money on the military. During the war in Iran, he lashed out at the Europeans for not acting to open the strait even though the more powerful U.S. Navy was unable to do so.

特朗普的整体政策已经让北约遭受冲击。尽管他成功推动北约成员国大幅增加军费开支，却仍不断称北约是“纸老虎”。对伊战争期间，他猛烈抨击欧洲各国未能采取行动打通海峡，即便实力更强的美国海军自己也做不到这一点。

Allied resistance to his desires rankles him the most. “It all began with, you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Monday. “They don’t want to give it to us, and I said, ‘Bye-bye.’”

最让他耿耿于怀的是盟友对他意愿的抵制。“说真的，一切都始于格陵兰岛，”特朗普周一告诉记者。“他们不肯给我们，那我就说，‘再见吧。’”

The cumulative impact on NATO is significant, said Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of political science at City University of New York. In the long run, China looks to be the bigger winner.

纽约城市大学政治学荣誉教授拉詹·梅农表示，这些事件对北约的累积影响十分显著。从长远来看，中国似乎是更大的赢家。

“While we look crazed and talk about bombing a country back to the stone age, China looks like a peacemaker and agent of stability,” he said. All the while, Beijing got a chance to watch how the U.S. Navy operates.

“当我们好像发疯一样，扬言要把一个国家炸回石器时代时，中国却扮演着和平缔造者与稳定维护者的角色，”他说。与此同时，北京还获得了观察美国海军作战方式的机会。

“China is looking on with a great deal of glee, and when Trump goes there” for a summit meeting now scheduled for mid-May, “he will be much diminished.”

“中国正幸灾乐祸地看着这一切，而当特朗普前往，”参加5月中旬在中国举行的峰会时，“他的底气将会大减。”

China, which gets so much of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed Iran to agree to the cease-fire, and it is expected to participate in keeping the strait open and guaranteeing safe passage for others.

中国绝大部分石油都需经霍尔木兹海峡运输，因此它推动伊朗达成了停火协议。预计中国还将参与维护海峡畅通，保障各国船只的安全通行。

Much depends on how the war ends, cautioned Mr. Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations.

外交关系委员会的库普钱提醒道，很多事情很大程度上取决于这场战争的收尾方式。

If the cease-fire leads to a deal that imposes significant constraints on Iran’s nuclear program and its ability to cause trouble, he said, that would be much better in the longer run than a frozen conflict or one that “just burns on month after month,” with all the accompanying impact on the energy market and American allies.

他表示，如果停火最终能促成一项协议，对伊朗核计划及其制造麻烦的能力施加实质性限制，那么从长远来看，这远比冲突陷入冻结状态、或是“旷日持久地燃烧下去”要好得多——后者将持续冲击能源市场，并损害美国盟友的利益。

Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, described his tense meeting with President Trump this week as a “conversation” that “was really between friends.”

北约秘书长马克·吕特将他本周与特朗普总统之间那场气氛紧张的会面描述为一场“对话”，“实际上是朋友之间的交流”。

Mr. Trump, in a social media post on Thursday, put it slightly differently: “our own, very disappointing, NATO” does not understand “anything unless they have pressure placed upon them!!!”

特朗普在周四的一条社交媒体帖子中的表述则略有不同：“我们这个让人非常失望的北约——除非对他们施加压力，否则他们什么都不懂！！！”

Even as it has violently upended the Middle East and put intense strains on the global economy, the war in Iran has deepened the gulf between Mr. Trump and America’s NATO allies. That is after those countries spent more than a year buffeted by the president’s threats, begun in his first term, to abandon the alliance.

伊朗战争不仅已经彻底搅乱了中东并给全球经济带来巨大压力，也进一步加深了特朗普与美国的北约盟友之间的裂痕。在此之前的这一年多时间里，这些国家已经因总统从第一任期就开始发出的要抛弃北约的威胁而备受冲击。

Mr. Trump is training his anger at NATO as his cease-fire with Iran hangs in the balance and even some of his supporters question whether the United States really achieved its objectives. He is airing his discontent over his inability to take over Greenland, despite behind-the-scenes talks over the Danish island that the White House says are going well. And he is forcing European leaders yet again to try to keep him from abandoning them, even as their countries struggle to shoulder the economic costs of the U.S. war with Iran.

在与伊朗的停火前景仍不明朗、甚至连他的部分支持者都开始质疑美国是否真正实现目标之际，特朗普正将怒火对准北约。他还表达了对未能接管格陵兰岛的不满，尽管白宫称有关这座丹麦岛屿的幕后谈判进展顺利。同时，他再次迫使欧洲领导人竭力挽留，唯恐被其抛弃，尽管这些国家正艰难承受美国与伊朗的战争带来的经济成本。

“We have, sometimes, the political home front to take care of,” Mr. Rutte said onstage at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington on Thursday, in a diplomatically phrased reminder that the war was deeply unpopular in Europe. “NATO is there, of course, to protect the Europeans, but also to protect the United States.”

“我们有时也需要顾及国内政治局势，”吕特周四在华盛顿罗纳德·里根研究所的一场活动上表示，这是一种外交措辞，提醒人们这场战争在欧洲极不受欢迎。“北约当然是为了保护欧洲，但同时也是为了保护美国。”

Mr. Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands, was making the point that the U.S. military benefits from its bases in Europe and, despite the tensions, has used them as staging sites for the war on Iran. But widening cracks in the alliance show that even if negotiators succeed in making a deal in the talks that start Saturday for a more permanent end to the war, the scars are likely to be lasting.

这位荷兰前首相意在指出，美国军方从其欧洲基地中受益，并且尽管存在紧张关系，仍将其用作对伊朗战争的集结地。然而，联盟内部不断扩大的裂痕表明，即使谈判代表能在周六开始的旨在达成更持久停火的会谈中成功达成协议，这些裂痕也很可能留下长期影响。

The Iran war “has become a trans-Atlantic stress test,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany said on Thursday, after acknowledging that his country was “massively suffering” from the energy market disruptions caused by the war. “We do not want — I do not want — a split within NATO.”

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨周四表示，伊朗战争“已经成为跨大西洋关系的一次压力测试”。此前他承认，德国正“深受”这场战争对能源市场造成冲击的影响。“我们不希望——我本人也不希望——北约内部出现分裂。”

Mr. Trump’s disdain for the alliance dates back decades, underpinned by his conviction that Europeans have been freeloading off the American security umbrella. His latest fury stems from U.S. allies’ refusal to embrace his decision to join Israel in assaulting Iran, with Britain and Spain setting limits on the United States’ ability to use bases on their territory.

特朗普对北约的轻视可以追溯到数十年前，其根源在于他认为欧洲长期搭便车，依赖美国的安全保护。他最近的愤怒则源于美国盟友拒绝支持他与以色列一道对伊朗发动攻击的决定，其中英国和西班牙对美军使用境内基地设置了限制。

Mr. Trump escalated his threats against NATO even as he prepared to wind down the war — and despite the fact that he did not try to build a coalition with European countries before the bombing started. He told The Telegraph last week that he may pull out of the alliance entirely. In a news conference on Monday, a day before the cease-fire, Mr. Trump volunteered that he still sought control of Greenland, the semiautonomous Danish territory in the North Atlantic.

即使已经准备逐步结束战争，特朗普仍加大了对北约的威胁——尽管在发动空袭前，他并未尝试与欧洲国家建立行动同盟。他上周在接受《每日电讯报》采访时表示，可能会完全退出北约。在周一的新闻发布会上——也就是停火前一天——特朗普还主动表示，他仍寻求控制位于北大西洋的丹麦半自治领地格陵兰岛。

“It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Mr. Trump said after voicing his dissatisfaction with Europe’s lack of support for the Iran war. “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us.”

“说实话，这一切都始于格陵兰，”特朗普在表达对欧洲未支持伊朗战争的不满后说道，“我们想要格陵兰，他们却不愿意给我们。”

He reinforced the point Wednesday, posting on social media in all capitals that “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them” and that Greenland was a “big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”

他在周三再次强化了这一点，在社交媒体上用全大写字母发文称“我们需要北约时他们不在”，并称格陵兰是一块“庞大、管理不善的冰块！！！”。

Mr. Trump’s pivot back to Greenland was striking given that he said in January that he and Mr. Rutte had formed a “great” framework for a future deal over the island. Three-way talks between officials from Greenland, Denmark and the United States have continued since. There is no indication that those talks would grant control of Greenland to the United States, but a White House official said the administration was optimistic about the course of the talks.

特朗普将注意力重新转向格陵兰，这一点颇为引人注目，因为他在今年1月曾表示，他与马克·吕特已经就该岛未来协议达成了一个“很棒”的框架。此后，来自格陵兰、丹麦和美国的官员一直在进行三方会谈。目前没有迹象表明这些谈判会将格陵兰的控制权交给美国，但一名白宫官员表示，政府对谈判进展持乐观态度。

In years past, many of Mr. Trump’s allies in Washington tried to rein in his attacks on NATO, seeking to remind him of the power that the United States gains from being able to base troops and warplanes in Europe. But in recent weeks, many of the war’s supporters in the United States have joined Mr. Trump in piling on against NATO, especially given the president’s frustration over Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

过去几年里，特朗普在华盛顿的许多盟友曾试图约束他对北约的攻击，提醒他美国可以通过在欧洲驻军和部署战机而获得战略优势。但最近几周，美国国内许多战争的支持者加入了对北约的批评行列，尤其是在特朗普对伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡感到不满的背景下。

Sean Hannity, the Fox News host close to the president, said on his show Wednesday night that Europe was “a dying continent” and mused that “I’m not sure it’s worth going forward with NATO as we go on.”

与总统关系密切的福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提周三晚在节目中表示，欧洲是“一个垂死的大陆”，并感叹道，“我不确定随着事态发展，继续维持北约是否还有意义。”

Jack Keane, a retired general whom Mr. Trump awarded a Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2020, told Mr. Hannity that he did not think the president would pull out of NATO because “there is still value” in the alliance, but he predicted there would be consequences.

2020年被特朗普授予总统自由勋章的退役将军杰克·基恩告诉汉尼提，他认为总统不会退出北约，因为这个联盟“仍然有价值”，但他预测会出现一些后果。

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t decide to move some of our troops out of Western European countries and move them into Eastern Europe countries,” General Keane said. “I think we’ll likely do something.”

“如果我们决定将部分驻军从西欧国家撤到东欧国家，我不会感到惊讶，”基恩将军说。“我想我们很可能会有所行动。”

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump was considering moving U.S. troops stationed in Europe from countries seen as unhelpful in the war effort to ones seen as supportive, like Poland and Romania. The White House did not comment on the report, but a senior U.S. military official in Europe said that options were being reviewed.

《华尔街日报》周三报道，特朗普正在考虑将驻欧美军从那些被认为在这场战争中不够配合的国家，转移到波兰和罗马尼亚等被视为态度更为支持的国家。白宫未对该报道发表评论，但一名驻欧洲的美军高级官员表示，相关选项正在评估中。

Mr. Trump has threatened NATO many times, only to largely preserve the status quo. In the president’s latest outburst, some analysts also see a familiar inclination to attack a weaker party, especially given Mr. Trump’s inability to compel Iran to surrender after five weeks of bombardment.

特朗普曾多次威胁北约，但最终大体维持现状。在一些分析人士看来，总统最近的这次爆发也体现了一种熟悉的倾向——攻击相对弱势的一方，尤其是在经过五周轰炸后仍未能迫使伊朗屈服的背景下。

“Beating up on Europe and NATO has really no domestic cost,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s quite typical for Trump: When things are going wrong, he finds the weakest person in the room and blames them.”

“对欧洲和北约发难在国内几乎没有成本，”曾任美国国务院官员、现任欧洲对外关系委员会研究主任的杰里米·夏皮罗表示，“这很符合特朗普的一贯风格：当事情进展不顺时，他会找房间里最弱的那个人来指责。”

“When we’re serious, we don’t every day say the opposite of what we said the day before,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said last week, adding, cuttingly: “And, maybe, one shouldn’t speak every day.”

“当我们认真对待一个事的时候，我们不会每天都说和前一天完全相反的话，”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙上周说道，并尖锐地补充道：“而且，也许，一个人不应该每天都发言。”

It sounded like a grown-up speaking down to an obstreperous child, and that was probably what the French president intended. The target of his admonition was, of course, Donald Trump. Mr. Macron was speaking shortly after the American president had issued another boorish rant that included rude comments about the French president and his wife.

这听起来像是一个成年人居高临下地训斥一个吵闹的孩子，而这很可能正是法国总统的本意。他的这番训诫针对的当然是唐纳德·特朗普。马克龙是在美国总统又一场粗鲁的咆哮之后不久发表这番言论的，那次咆哮中包含了对法国总统及其妻子的无礼评论。

Mr. Macron is one of the few European leaders who have dealt with Mr. Trump almost from the first day of his first term. His transition from initial deference and feigned friendship to very public rebuke reflects the degree to which respect for the American president has fallen among European leaders and their publics. Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, about which NATO allies were not consulted and in which they subsequently declined to participate, has made clear that Europeans no longer defer to Mr. Trump as the de facto “leader of the free world.”

马克龙是为数不多的几乎从特朗普第一个任期第一天起就与他打交道的欧洲领导人之一。他从最初的顺从和假装友好，转变为如今公开的指责，这反映出欧洲领导人和民众对美国总统的尊重已经下降到何种程度。特朗普对伊朗发动的战争事先未与北约盟国商议，这些盟国随后也拒绝参与，这清楚地表明欧洲人不再把特朗普视为事实上的“自由世界领袖”而唯其马首是瞻。

Mr. Trump’s comments about Mr. Macron and his wife were made at an Easter lunch with Christian leaders and close allies. They were not intended for public consumption, but they somehow made it onto YouTube long enough to be downloaded and widely shared. Typical of Trump tirades, they are richly laced with grievance, malice and crudeness: In addition to mocking the Macrons, he bashes NATO and the Supreme Court. The video is especially discomfiting when Mr. Trump’s spiritual adviser Paula White compares the president to Jesus Christ. (“You were betrayed and arrested. And falsely accused,” she said.)

特朗普关于马克龙及其妻子的评论是在与基督教领袖和亲密盟友共进复活节午餐时发表的。这些话原本不打算公开，但不知何故还是流到了YouTube上，并在那上面存在了足够长的时间，并被下载和广泛传播。这些言论有着特朗普一贯的咆哮风格，充满怨恨、恶意和粗俗：除了嘲笑马克龙夫妇，他还猛烈抨击北约和最高法院。视频中尤其令人不安的是，特朗普的灵修顾问葆拉·怀特将总统比作耶稣基督。（“你被背叛、被逮捕。还受到莫须有的指控，”她说道。）

But that luncheon talk was only a squall in a period in which Mr. Trump, fired up by an Iran war that was not going as he liked, let loose fiery threats to annihilate the country. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you bunch of crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH!” was what Mr. Trump decided to post on the morning of Easter Sunday, with “Praise be to Allah” gratuitously tacked on. On Tuesday, he declared that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” effectively threatening a grave violation of the Geneva Conventions. Eighty-eight minutes before the apocalyptic 8 p.m. deadline, Mr. Trump backed down.

但那次午餐谈话只是一个短暂的风波。在此期间，被伊朗战争不利局面激怒的特朗普放任自己发出要消灭该国的激烈威胁。“周二是伊朗的发电厂日和桥梁日，打包到一起了。前所未有！！！打开他妈的海峡，你们这些狗杂种，否则你们将活在地狱里——等着瞧吧！”这是特朗普在复活节周日上午决定发布的帖子，最后还平白无故地加上了一句“赞美安拉”。周二，他宣称“整个文明今晚将消亡，永不复返”，实际上是在威胁严重违反《日内瓦公约》。在距离那个世界末日般的晚上8点最后期限还有88分钟时，特朗普退缩了。

There was a time when Mr. Trump’s stream of insults, falsehoods, expletives, threats and malice would have raised questions among foreign leaders as to whether Mr. Trump was being deliberately obnoxious to achieve a goal — say, to get European allies to pay more for NATO, or as a variant on the “madman theory” strategy devised by President Richard Nixon to convince rivals that the president was dangerously unpredictable. They tried to appease Mr. Trump with praise and pomp, hoping to steer him in a more productive direction.

曾几何时，特朗普连珠炮般的侮辱、谎言、脏话、威胁和恶意会让外国领导人质疑特朗普是否在故意表现得令人讨厌以达到某个目的——比如迫使欧洲盟国为北约支付更多费用，或者作为理查德·尼克松总统发明的“疯子理论”策略的变体，试图让对手相信总统危险且不可预测。他们曾试图用赞美和盛大仪式来安抚特朗普，希望引导他走向更有建设性的方向。

But more than a year into Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, the Europeans, and much of the world, have concluded that no amount of bowing or scraping will win more than fleeting approval from him. The barrage of tariffs that opened the second Trump administration, aimed indiscriminately at friend and foe; the brazen demands that Denmark cede Greenland to the United States, and now the absence of any consultation with European allies before joining Israel in an attack on Iran that has affected the entire world, have erased any illusion among most Europeans that Mr. Trump is anything but an unpredictable, vindictive and uncontrollable danger.

但在特朗普重返白宫一年多之后，欧洲以及世界上许多其他国家已经得出结论：无论如何卑躬屈膝，都只能换来他短暂的认可。第二届特朗普政府上台伊始就对盟友和对手同时发动无差别的关税攻势；公然要求丹麦将格陵兰岛割让给美国；以及如今在与以色列共同袭击伊朗——一个影响了全世界的行动——之前完全不与欧洲盟国协商，这些都已打破了大多数欧洲人最后的幻想：特朗普绝非一个可预测、讲道理的伙伴，而是一个不可预测、报复心强且无法控制的危险人物。

Mr. Trump’s current beef with NATO is that none of its members responded to his call for military help in opening the Strait of Hormuz, raising questions about whether he will try to pull the United States out of the alliance, or whether the alliance even has any meaning now. So far, however, that has not persuaded any European leaders to capitulate, despite Mr. Trump’s constant trolling. Britain’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, has said he will stick to his position on the war “whatever the noise.” Last month, the German defense minister, Boris Pistorius, struck a similar note, saying, “This is not our war.” Mr. Trump responded by calling NATO allies “cowards.”

特朗普目前对北约的不满在于，没有任何一个成员国响应他提供军事帮助以打开霍尔木兹海峡的呼吁，这让人质疑他是否会试图让美国退出北约，或者这个联盟现在是否还有任何意义。然而，到目前为止，这并未说服任何欧洲领导人屈服，尽管特朗普不断嘲讽。英国首相基尔·斯塔默表示，他将坚持自己在战争问题上的立场，“不管有什么噪音。”上个月，德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯也表达了类似态度：“这不是我们的战争。”特朗普对此的回应是称北约盟国为“懦夫”。

Even Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, one of Mr. Trump’s closest European allies, distanced herself from his seemingly unprecedented threats to Iran this week. “It is crucial to clearly distinguish between the responsibilities of a regime and the fate of millions of ordinary citizens,” she said. That effectively left Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, as Mr. Trump’s most loyal ally in Europe, which explains why Vice President JD Vance was dispatched to prop up Mr. Orban in advance of an election on Sunday that he may well lose. Mr. Orban’s stance on the Iran war, however, is unclear, especially after The Washington Post reported on Wednesday that Hungary offered to help Iran in 2024 after Israel caused thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, to explode.

即使是意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼——特朗普在欧洲最亲密的盟友之一——本周也与他对伊朗发出的看似前所未有的威胁保持了距离。“必须明确区分一个政权的责任与数百万普通公民的命运，”她说道。这实际上让匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班成为了特朗普在欧洲最忠诚的盟友，这也解释了为什么副总统JD·万斯被派去在周日选举前为欧尔班撑腰——欧尔班在这场选举中可能会落败。然而，欧尔班在伊朗战争上的立场并不清晰，尤其是《华盛顿邮报》周三报道称，2024年以色列让伊朗在黎巴嫩的代理人真主党的数千部寻呼机爆炸后，匈牙利曾提出帮助伊朗。

Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, who is considered something of a Trump whisperer, may be one of the very few — if not the last — European leaders still clinging to the policy of flattery. He has actively tried to maintain friendly ties to Mr. Trump, suggesting gamely that Mr. Trump’s anger at the alliance was understandable and would pass. But in a social media post after talks with Mr. Rutte, the president reiterated his ire and threw in Greenland for good measure: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”

被认为擅于跟特朗普沟通的北约秘书长马克·吕特可能仍是少数——如果不是最后一个——仍在坚持奉承政策的欧洲领导人。他一直积极试图与特朗普保持友好关系，巧妙地表示特朗普对联盟的愤怒是可以理解的，而且会过去。但在与吕特会谈后，特朗普在社交媒体帖子中重申了自己的愤怒，并顺带提到了格陵兰岛：“北约在我们需要他们的时候不在，以后我们再需要他们时也不会在。还记得格陵兰岛吗，那块巨大的、治理糟糕的冰块！！！”

At least there was no new talk of leaving NATO, for now. The shouty missive elicited no major pushback from foreign leaders. This was Mr. Trump being Mr. Trump: tedious, repetitive, vulgar. He is still dangerous, and he could still unleash terror on the people of Iran should the cease-fire collapse. But his uppercase blasts, chest-thumping rants and coarse insults are more likely now to draw a Gallic shrug.

至少目前还没有新的退出北约的言论。这条咆哮式的帖子没有引发外国领导人的强烈反击。这就是特朗普本色：乏味、重复、粗俗。他仍然危险，如果停火崩溃，他仍有可能对伊朗人民释放恐怖。但他那些全大写的咆哮、捶胸顿足的狂言和粗鄙的侮辱，如今更可能换来的只是一次高卢式的耸肩。

Hundreds of tankers are waiting to return to the Strait of Hormuz so that the waterway can once again become a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas.

数百艘油轮正等待返回霍尔木兹海峡，以便这条水道能够再次成为全球五分之一石油和天然气的运输通道。

But the shaky cease-fire struck between the United States and Iran has not coaxed the tankers back — and even if it holds, other obstacles have to be overcome for shipping traffic to return to normal.

但美国和伊朗之间达成的脆弱停火协议并没有说服油轮返航——即使停火能够维持，要让航运交通恢复正常仍有其他障碍需要克服。

Iran has kept a stranglehold on the strait throughout the war by laying mines and attacking vessels. As part of the cease-fire, Iran’s foreign minister said, the country will allow “safe passage” for ships through the strait, but he added that the vessels would have to coordinate with Iran’s armed forces and that passages would be subject to “technical limitations.”

在整个战争期间，伊朗通过布设水雷和袭击船只对霍尔木兹海峡保持着严密控制。作为停火协议的一部分，伊朗外长表示，该国将允许船只“安全通行”，但他补充说，船只必须与伊朗武装部队协调，而且通行将受到“技术限制”。

What is the situation in the strait now?

海峡目前的状况如何？

Only four vessels traveled through the strait on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, down from an average of nine a day over the previous five days. And shipping analysts said there were no signs of large-scale positioning or queuing to go through the strait.

根据标普全球市场财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据，周三只有四艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，而此前五天的日均通过量为九艘。航运分析师表示，目前没有出现大规模船只集结或排队等待通过海峡的迹象。

The fragility of the cease-fire — Iran said on Wednesday that Israel’s attacks on targets in Lebanon had violated the agreement — was the main reason ships were holding back, shipping industry participants said.

航运业人士表示，停火协议的脆弱性是船只犹豫不前的首要原因——伊朗周三称，以色列对黎巴嫩目标的袭击违反了协议。

“It’s too unstable for anyone to commit,” said Oscar Seikaly, chief executive of NSI Insurance Group, a maritime insurance brokerage.

“局势太不稳定，谁都不敢做出承诺，”海事保险经纪公司NSI保险集团的首席执行官奥斯卡·塞卡利说。

What has to happen first for ships to go back?

要让船只返回，首先需要实现什么？

First, shipping analysts say, there has to be confidence that the cease-fire will hold. And then there has to be a declaration from Iran that it will not attack vessels.

航运分析师认为，首先必须建立对停火协议能够维持的信心。其次，伊朗必须明确宣布不会袭击船只。

“Iran must clarify that the strait is open for safe passage. Otherwise, vessels should not be expected to sail through the way they were doing prior to the war,” said Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“伊朗必须明确表示海峡对安全通行开放。否则，不能指望船只像战前那样通过海峡，”华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员诺姆·雷丹说。

But Iran is also demanding that it oversee and coordinate passages through the strait. The government hasn’t clearly stated what vessel operators must do to gain permission to pass through. Some shipowners have made “toll” payments to Iran. And, according to Kpler, a shipping tracking firm, most of the crossings during the war have taken a route that goes close to Iran’s coast. This suggests that Iran requires taking this route.

但伊朗同时要求对通过海峡的船只进行监督和协调。伊朗政府尚未明确说明船只运营商需要做什么才能获得通行许可。有些船东已经向伊朗支付了“通行费”。根据航运追踪公司Kpler的数据，战争期间大多数穿越都采取了靠近伊朗海岸的路线。这表明伊朗要求船只走这条路线。

Iran’s official broadcaster said on Wednesday that, because of anti-ship mines in the traffic zones, vessels must coordinate with the Iranian Navy and use designated routes to cross the waterway.

伊朗官方广播电台周三表示，由于交通区域存在反舰水雷，船只必须与伊朗海军协调，并使用指定路线穿越该水道。

Do governments have to get involved?

各国政府是否必须介入？

The governments of India, Pakistan and Thailand have worked with Iran to ensure safe passage of vessels.

印度、巴基斯坦和泰国的政府已与伊朗合作，以确保船只安全通行。

In a joint statement on Wednesday, the leaders of seven European nations, Canada, the European Commission and the European Council said their governments “will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation” in the strait.

七个欧洲国家、加拿大、欧盟委员会和欧盟理事会的领导人周三在一份联合声明中表示，他们的政府“将致力于确保海峡的航行自由”。

President Trump suggested on Wednesday that the United States might jointly control the strait with Iran.

特朗普总统周三暗示，美国可能与伊朗共同控制霍尔木兹海峡。

“The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post. “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made.”

“美利坚合众国将帮助解决霍尔木兹海峡的交通积压问题，”特朗普在社交媒体帖子中写道。“将会采取大量积极行动！将会赚到很多钱。”

ABC News reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump had told one of its reporters that the United States could operate shipping in the strait “as a joint venture” with Iran.

ABC新闻周三报道称，特朗普告诉该报记者，美国可以在海峡“以合资方式”运营航运业务。

Will shipping return if Iran doesn’t give up full control?

如果伊朗不放弃完全控制权，航运会恢复吗？

Analysts say Iran can continue to act as a gatekeeper if the number of vessels going through the strait remains relatively small. But it would not be able to manage the more than 100 ships a day that passed through the strait before the war.

分析师表示，如果通过海峡的船只数量保持在相对较少的水平，伊朗可以继续充当“看门人”。但它将无法管理战前每天超过100艘船只的流量。

“Blanket passage arrangements are unlikely to be implementable by Iran, due to capacity constraints around vessel identification and ongoing requirements to guide vessels through the corridor,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an email.

“由于船舶识别和持续引导船只通过走廊的能力有限，伊朗不太可能实施全面的通行安排，”标普全球市场情报公司中东和北非国家风险主管杰克·肯尼迪在一封电子邮件中表示。

Also, the threat of war will linger if Iran keeps throttling the strait. The Persian Gulf states do not want Iran to have such power over the waterway. Oman, the country on the other side of the strait, could invite ships to pass close to its coastline, but such a move might prompt Iran to attack the vessels.

此外，如果伊朗继续对海峡实施限制，战争威胁将持续存在。波斯湾国家不希望伊朗对这条水道拥有如此大的控制权。位于海峡另一侧的阿曼可能会邀请船只靠近其海岸线通行，但此举可能促使伊朗袭击这些船只。

Will shipping companies pay a toll to Iran?

航运公司会向伊朗支付通行费吗？

Given that more than 100 large commercial ships have gone through the strait since the war began, some vessel operators are willing to negotiate with Iran and even pay millions of dollars for a passage. Shipping companies are losing money on vessels that are waiting to go through the strait, so they may be willing to pay large sums to get their ships out into the Indian Ocean and operating normally.

鉴于战争爆发以来已有超过100艘大型商船通过海峡，一些船只运营商愿意与伊朗谈判，甚至愿意支付数百万美元以获得通行权。航运公司因船只滞留而正在亏损，因此它们可能愿意支付大笔费用，让船只进入印度洋并恢复正常运营。

Still, the larger, more established shipping companies may decide that doing business with Iran is too much of a legal risk, particularly if the United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran.

不过，更大型、更成熟的航运公司可能会认为，与伊朗做生意存在太大的法律风险，尤其是如果美国继续对伊朗实施制裁的话。

“The issue of sanctions on Iran makes it a very complicated process, since it involves financial transactions with a sanctioned regime,” Ms. Raydan said.

“对伊朗的制裁问题使这一过程变得非常复杂，因为它涉及与受制裁政权的金融交易，”雷丹说。

How hard is it to get insurance?

获取保险有多难？

When the fighting began, the cost of “war risk” insurance for ships and cargo going through the strait skyrocketed. A few shipping companies bought it, and it has been available at times during the war, Mr. Seikaly, the insurance executive, said. But the fragility of the cease-fire has driven down demand for insurance.

战斗开始时，针对通过海峡的船舶和货物的“战争风险”保险费用急剧飙升。保险业高管塞卡利表示，有少数航运公司购买了这种保险，在战争期间有时也能买到。但停火协议的脆弱性已导致保险需求下降。

“It is not the right moment, and everyone knows that,” he said.

“现在还不是时候，这一点大家都知道，”他说。

In 1910, a British journalist published “The Great Illusion,” one of the worst-timed best sellers in history.

1910年，一位英国记者出版了《大幻觉》(The Great Illusion)一书，这本书堪称史上“最不合时宜的畅销书”之一。

The author, Norman Angell, argued that the growing interconnection of the world economy meant that no one could ever truly win a world war. Even if Germany were to invade Britain and take all the gold held in the Bank of England, the integration of Europe’s banking systems guaranteed a financial crisis that would leave the Germans worse off than if they’d just stayed home.

作者诺曼·安吉尔认为，世界经济日益紧密的互联意味着没有人能真正赢得一场世界大战。即使德国入侵英国并夺走英格兰银行的所有黄金，欧洲银行体系的高度一体化也会引发金融危机，使德国的处境比按兵不动还要更糟。

This fact did not make war impossible, Mr. Angell wrote. But it made conflict much more costly and destructive for everyone. Four years later, World War I began. In the hyper-connected world of 1914, the war’s shocks reverberated far beyond the battlefields, leaving enduring political and economic instability in their wake.

安格尔写道，这一事实并不意味着战争不可能发生，而是令冲突对每个人的代价和破坏性都大大增加。四年后，第一次世界大战爆发。在1914年这个高度互联的世界里，战争的冲击远远超出战场范围，在其后留下了持久的政治和经济不稳定。

Now that the United States and Iran have declared a two-week cease-fire, the question is whether the war’s economic disruption will be short-lived or lasting. The lessons from history are sobering: In an interdependent global economy, the shock of the outbreak of war can produce long-term instabilities overnight, many of which become apparent only over time.

如今，在美国与伊朗宣布为期两周的停火后，一个关键问题是：战争带来的经济冲击究竟是短暂的，还是长期存在的。历史的教训令人警醒：在一个相互依赖的全球经济体系中，战争爆发所带来的冲击可能在一夜之间引发长期的不稳定，而其中许多影响往往需要假以时日才会显现出来。

When the United States attacked Iran, it should have come as no surprise that Iran would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Yet few could have foreseen the exact downstream effects: not just the worst disruption to oil supplies in history, but also shortages of materials that not many people realized they relied on — urea and ammonia used to grow the world’s staple food crops, helium for making computer chips and naphtha, a petroleum product crucial for the manufacture of many household plastic items, including garbage bags and water bottles.

当美国对伊朗发动攻击时，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡本不令人意外。然而，几乎没有人能够预见其具体的连锁反应：不仅出现了史上最严重的石油供应中断，还有一些原料的短缺也出现了，而很多人并没有意识到自己离不开它们——例如用于种植全球主要粮食作物的尿素和氨、用于制造芯片的氦气，以及石脑油——制造垃圾袋和矿泉水瓶等日常塑料制品所必需的石油产品）。

The history of World War I shows us how long destabilization can last. In 1914, before war was officially declared, it quickly became clear that a major conflict would have unintended economic consequences. While the assassination of the Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, did not cause markets to collapse, the ultimatum Austria-Hungary presented to Serbia about a month later — interpreted as making war inevitable — prompted a chaotic flight to financial safety around the world.

第一次世界大战的历史表明，动荡可能持续很长时间。1914年，在战争尚未正式爆发之前，人们很快就意识到，一场重大冲突将带来意想不到的经济后果。虽然奥地利大公弗朗茨·斐迪南及其妻子索菲遇刺并未导致市场崩溃，但大约一个月后，奥匈帝国向塞尔维亚发出的最后通牒——被普遍解读为战争不可避免——引发了全球范围内一场混乱的金融避险潮。

Investors and depositors dumped risky assets and raced to get gold. Bank runs broke out widely, and nearly every stock exchange closed — from London to Johannesburg, Shanghai and Sydney. Banks in London, the financial center of the world, nearly collapsed. Traders everywhere lost access to the credit they needed to do business.

投资者和储户纷纷抛售高风险资产，争相兑换黄金。银行挤兑现象大范围爆发，几乎所有证券交易所——从伦敦到约翰内斯堡、上海和悉尼——都关闭了。世界金融中心伦敦的银行体系几近崩溃。各地的交易商都失去了开展业务所需的信贷渠道。

Then global shipping seized up. In the face of a conflict of uncertain scale and duration, the cost of marine insurance fluctuated significantly. Vessels and cargoes sat idle; ports around the world grew congested. Meanwhile, the blockades and German invasions of Belgium and France prevented continental Europe’s largest markets from absorbing more than a small fraction of the normal quantity of imports.

随后，全球航运陷入瘫痪。面对一场规模和持续时间都不确定的冲突，海上保险费用大幅波动。船只和货物滞留，全球各地的港口日益拥堵。与此同时，海上封锁以及德国对比利时和法国的入侵使得欧洲大陆最大的市场只能吸收正常进口量的极小一部分。

Before any trenches even appeared on the Western Front, world trade was thus hit by a crippling triple whammy: the disappearance of credit, ships and markets. The effects were immediate, worldwide and severe: unemployment, spiking inflation and mass unrest. By 1915, global commerce, at least among the allied countries and neutral countries, seemed to be recovering. Ships began to sail again, trade was redirected along different routes and to new markets, and the war unleashed incredible demand for goods, such as nitrates from Chile and jute from India.

因此，在西线战场尚未有战壕出现之前，世界贸易就遭受了致命的三重打击：信贷消失、船运中断和市场萎缩。其影响立刻显现，它波及全球且极为严重：失业、通胀飙升和大规模动荡。到1915年，全球商业——至少在协约国和中立国之间——似乎开始复苏。船只重新起航，贸易改道至不同的航线和新的市场，战争还释放出对某些商品的惊人需求，例如来自智利的硝酸盐和来自印度的黄麻。

But lasting damage had already been done.

但持久性的损害已经造成。

The British government, acting alongside the Bank of England, saved Britain’s leading banks from insolvency in August 1914. But the panic that broke out that summer weakened Britain’s banking sector, which allowed Wall Street to replace it as the world’s financial center. Almost overnight, the global balance of financial power shifted sharply.

1914年8月，英国政府与英格兰银行联手，挽救了英国主要银行免于破产。但当年夏天爆发的恐慌削弱了英国的银行体系，使得华尔街得以取而代之成为世界金融中心。全球金融力量的格局几乎在一夜之间发生了剧烈转变。

Then, the shortage of ships, combined with rising insurance premiums and freight rates, increased the price of goods around the world, particularly for food and other necessities. As the war continued, these pressures worsened; by 1918 and 1919, they had reached unprecedented heights. In the United States, the price of bread doubled between 1913 and 1920.

与此同时，船舶短缺、海运保险费及运费上涨推高了全球商品价格，尤其是食品和其他必需品。随着战争持续，这些压力进一步加剧；到1918年和1919年，这种上涨已达到前所未有的水平。在美国，面包价格在1913年至1920年间翻了一番。

Finally, the combined losses of credit, shipping and markets caused the total volume of world trade to plummet. It took years to recover to prewar levels. The economic historian David Jacks has estimated that, over the first two years of the war, world exports fell by nearly 25 percent in real terms — more than after the financial crisis of 2008.

最后，信贷、航运和市场的同时崩塌使全球贸易总量大幅下滑，恢复到战前水平耗费了多年时间。经济史学家戴维·贾克斯估计，在战争最初两年里，全球出口的实际价值下降了近25%——比2008年金融危机后的降幅还要大。

Even the European victors of the war lost ground. After the war, Europe’s share of world trade had fallen. In the war’s opening days, supply chains and trading networks were rerouted away from Europe, which benefited two rising powers: the United States and Japan. European trade never fully recovered.

即便是欧洲的战胜国也未能幸免。战后，欧洲在全球贸易中的份额下降。在战争初期，供应链和贸易网络就已开始绕开欧洲，这让两个正在崛起的国家受益：美国和日本。欧洲的贸易此后再未完全恢复。

Of course, the Iran war has been nowhere near the scale or duration of World War I. Yet even if this shaky cease-fire holds, there are reasons to believe that its shocks will be felt long after.

当然，伊朗战争的规模和持续时间都远不能与第一次世界大战相提并论。然而，即便这一脆弱的停火能够维持，我们也有理由相信，其冲击将在很长时间内持续显现。

First, energy prices are unlikely to fall immediately to prewar levels. Snarled supply chains will take months to untangle, and damaged production facilities in the Persian Gulf will take even longer to repair. Shipping won’t all come back online at once, either — particularly since Iran has discovered that it need only threaten a few tankers with cheap drones to have a major effect on global trade. If Iran now charges fees to ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, and threatens to sink those that don’t pay, freight rates and insurance premiums will remain elevated.

首先，能源价格不太可能立即回落到战前水平。受阻的供应链需要数月时间才能理清，波斯湾受损的生产设施则需要更长时间来修复。航运也不会在短时间内全部恢复——尤其是考虑到伊朗已经发现，它只需用廉价无人机威胁几艘油轮就能对全球贸易产生重大影响。如果伊朗现在向通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收费，并威胁击沉不付费的船只，运费和保险费将继续居高不下。

Now, there are fertilizer shortages at the beginning of the spring planting season for foods including rice, which means that we may eventually see reduced crop yields and higher prices. As the experience of the Covid pandemic made clear, supply chain disruptions like these can produce inflationary surges with long tails, which, before they abate, can have damaging secondary effects, from higher mortgage rates to fiscal crises to political unrest.

眼下，随着水稻等粮食作物的春播季节开始，化肥短缺意味着未来可能出现减产和价格上涨。正如新冠疫情期间的经验所表明，这类供应链中断可能引发持续很长时间的通胀飙升，而在其消退之前，还可能带来一系列有害的次生影响——从抵押贷款利率上升到财政危机，再到政治动荡。

It’s impossible to know for sure how the dust will settle. Yet, as was true with the other supply shocks of the 2020s, low- and middle-income countries will most likely bear the brunt. While rising costs of food and energy can bring economic hardship and political turmoil to wealthy countries like the United States, they can, quite literally, be a matter of life and death elsewhere. Some countries in the Horn of Africa that are already facing severe food insecurity depend on imported fertilizers that ordinarily pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

尘埃将如何落定，我们无法确切知晓。然而，正如2020年代的其他供应冲击一样，中低收入国家最有可能首当其冲。虽然食品和能源价格上涨会给美国这样的富裕国家带来经济压力和政治动荡，但在其他地方，它们实际上可能是生死攸关的问题。非洲之角一些本已面临严重粮食不安全的国家依赖通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的进口化肥。

If these are the consequences of just a month of war, imagine the effects of a larger and more protracted conflict — one whose likelihood, some believe, is greater now than at any other moment in recent history.

如果仅仅一个月的战争就能造成这样的后果，那么可以想象，一场规模更大、持续更久的冲突会带来怎样的影响——而在一些人看来，这种冲突发生的可能性如今比近年任何时候都要高。

Looking out over a devastated Europe in 1919, the French prime minister, Georges Clemenceau, said that it was “far easier to make war than to make peace.” The same is true when it comes to the world economy: It’s much easier to spark a global panic than to deal with its long-term fallout.

1919年，法国总理乔治·克列孟梭在俯瞰满目疮痍的欧洲时曾说：“发动战争远比缔造和平容易。”对于全球经济而言也是如此：引发全球恐慌远比应对其长期后果容易得多。

A dozen barges, heavy with just-harvested rice, cut their engines and floated to a halt. Two huge rice mills upriver stopped de-husking and bagging as electricity prices peaked.

十几艘满载新收稻谷的驳船熄了引擎，顺水漂着停下来。上游两家大型碾米厂因电价飙至峰值，停止了稻谷脱壳与装袋的作业。

It was midmorning in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta — one of the most productive agricultural areas on Earth, in a nation that is the world’s second-largest exporter of rice.

此时是越南湄公河三角洲的上午时分。这里是全球最富饶的的农业区之一，越南是全球第二大稻米出口国。

Only birds and a stray motorbike could be heard.

四下里只听得见鸟鸣，偶尔传来摩托车驶过的声响。

And in the quiet, anxieties unfurled.

在这片寂静里，焦虑正悄然蔓延。

载着新收割稻谷的船只排成一列，准备驶入同塔省的一家加工中心。

Boat captains talked about diesel prices doubling, surging higher and for longer than they did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Workers on the water and near forklifts worried about having to find new jobs. The scarcity of fuel and fertilizer from the Middle East was already seizing up a food producing giant, and no matter how the war in Iran goes, the next planting looked shaky too.

船长们聊着翻了倍的柴油价格，这一轮的涨幅之高、持续时间之长已经超过了2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后的水平。水上作业的工人和叉车的装卸工都在担心要另谋出路。来自中东的燃油和化肥供应短缺已经让这个粮食生产大国陷入停摆；无论伊朗战事走向如何，下一季的播种都已前景堪忧。

“If I grow new crops, I’m just pouring money into the ground,” said Vo Minh Tam, a rice farmer who owns a farm supply store where he’s stopped stocking fertilizer because so many neighbors have paused plans for the May growing season. “I’d rather leave it abandoned.”

“要是种下新一季作物，我就是往地里白砸钱，”稻农武明谭（音）说。他自己开了一家农资店，如今已经停止进货化肥，因为太多邻居都搁置了5月种植季的计划。“我宁愿让地荒着。”

Vietnam’s stalled land of plenty shows how the war — even with the two-week cease-fire announced on Tuesday — has caused an immediate shock to the global food supply that’s sparking a chain reaction of long-term disruption. Until the massive backlog of fuel tankers pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz that Iran has now promised to stop blocking, and until long-term peace looks probable, pain for farmers will continue, along with the risk of under-fertilized crops, lesser yields and higher grocery prices worldwide.

越南这片陷入停滞的鱼米之乡表明，这场战争已对全球粮食供应造成直接冲击，并引发了带来长期扰动的连锁反应，即便周二宣布了为期两周的停火。在大量滞留的油轮顺利通过伊朗现承诺不再封锁的狭窄霍尔木兹海峡之前，在长期和平的前景明朗之前，农民的困境还将持续，同时全球也将面临作物施肥不足、减产、食品价格上涨的风险。

Asia is especially reliant on the Middle East for oil and fertilizer. The Mekong Delta and its 19 million residents are not easily disturbed or defeated, but even before the war, climate change was pushing saltwater into fields, twisting arms and budgets. The gut punch of an oil shock has added to frustration with an energy source that already felt like tainted treasure — black gold once just valuable, now looks cursed.

亚洲尤为依赖中东的石油和化肥。湄公河三角洲及其1900万居民向来坚韧不拔、不易被击垮，但在这场战争之前，气候变化导致的海水倒灌侵田就已经让农户的生计与收支捉襟见肘。而这场石油危机带来的沉重打击更让人们对这种能源心生怨怼——这种宝贵的黑色黄金如今仿佛成了祸根。

在同塔省收割水稻。农民们对灌溉费用和化肥价格上涨感到担忧。

The war spurred fuel rationing within a week. Vietnam lacks ample reserves, so resource allocation has been zero-sum. One sector ends up pitted against another, creating a dilemma for this one-party Communist state.

战事爆发不到一周，越南就启动了燃料配给制。越南没有充足的能源储备，因此资源分配彻底变成了零和博弈：不同行业之间陷入对立，给这个一党制共产主义国家带来了两难困境。

Who wins in a fight for scarce resources? City-dwellers, manufacturers or the Mekong Delta, a pump-irrigated plain that exports eight million tons of rice, four million tons of fruit and nearly two million tons of seafood every year?

在这场稀缺资源的争夺中，谁会是赢家？是城市居民、制造业，还是湄公河三角洲？这片靠水泵灌溉的平原每年要出口800万吨大米、400万吨水果，以及近200万吨海鲜。

The Mekong Delta sprawls across Vietnam’s southern tip, covering an area larger than the Mississippi Delta. Complex irrigation networks run like capillaries through lands where shrimp are farmed, poultry is raised, and citrus, durian and rice grow side by side. Everything, including water and fertilizer, has been costlier to move since the start of the war, and no one knows whether the nations negotiating for peace can be trusted to create stability.

湄公河三角洲横跨越南最南端，面积比密西西比河三角洲还要广阔。错综复杂的灌溉网络如同毛细血管般遍布这片土地，这里有虾塘和禽舍，柑橘、榴莲与水稻连片种植。战事爆发以来，包括水和化肥在内的所有物资，运输成本都大幅上涨；而没人知道那些正在和谈的国家能否真正带来稳定。

“These leaders, I think maybe they’re crazy,” said Nguyen Thanh Tam, 71, a rice farmer with deep family roots in the Mekong. “I wish we could go back to the old days,” he added, “when our weather and lives were more stable.”

“这些领导人，我看他们怕是疯了。”71岁的稻农阮清谭（音）说，他的家族世世代代扎根在湄公河三角洲。“我多希望回到过去的日子，”他还说。“那时候天气安稳，日子也安稳。”

Mr. Tam, a soft-spoken man with deep wrinkles from a life in the sun, had started the harvest a few weeks ago feeling good. He expected to earn enough for a new Honda scooter costing about $800 — the first of his life. Now, even after hearing about the cease-fire, he’s sticking with his silver bicycle.

阮清谭说话轻声细语，饱受风吹日晒的脸上刻满深深的皱纹。几周前开始收割时，他还满心欢喜，本以为赚的钱够买一辆约800美元的本田踏板车——这将是他这辈子第一辆摩托车。可如今，他还是只能骑着自己那辆旧的银色自行车，即便已经听到了停火的消息。

“I remain very worried,” he said on Wednesday, soon after the cease-fire was announced.

“我还是满心担忧，”他在周三停火协议宣布后不久说。

71岁的稻农阮清潭表示，他希望世界能回归到更加稳定的时期。一名妇女正在湄公河三角洲收割水稻，这里是世界上最富饶的农业区之一。

Mr. Tam said he fears that prices will stay high, especially for fertilizer. A third of the world’s supply comes from the Middle East and global prices for urea, a common fertilizer for rice, are up more than 70 percent since January.

阮清谭说，他担心物价会一直居高不下，尤其是化肥。全球三分之一的化肥供应来自中东，自1月以来，水稻种植常用的尿素的全球价格已经上涨了70%以上。

The farm supply store owned by Mr. Minh Tam is usually crammed full of the stuff. He’s got room for 100 tons. In late March, he had only four. Empty pallets gathered dust on his concrete floor near a pink rice cooker with a mouse’s face.

武明谭的农资店里总是堆满了化肥。他的仓库容量是100吨，可3月底的时候，库存只剩四吨。水泥地面上，空托盘积满了灰尘，旁边放着一个印着老鼠头像的粉色电饭煲。

“I’d be certain to lose money if I stockpile fertilizer now,” he said. “Farmers are all complaining about how expensive it is.”

“我现在要是囤化肥，铁定要亏本，”他说。“农户们都抱怨化肥太贵了。”

Inactivity is an aberration in Vietnam. Fifty years after a brutal war followed by grinding famine, the country moves with more throttle than brake. When the Covid pandemic hit, farmers bought drones for seeding to reduce clustering by seasonal workers.

在越南，停滞不前实属罕见。经历了残酷的战争和随之而来的严重饥荒，50年后，这个国家就像是踩下了油门，而不是刹车。新冠疫情来袭时，农户们购入无人机播种，减少季节性务工人员的聚集。

But studies of agricultural economics have shown that uncertainty freezes enterprise. Not even the Mekong is immune.

但农业经济学的研究早已表明，不确定性会让经营活动陷入停滞。即便是湄公河三角洲也不例外。

Around 90 percent of the rice Vietnam ships — mostly to the Philippines, but also to Africa and the United States — comes from the Mekong. Normally.

越南出口的大米中，约90%都产自湄公河三角洲，这些大米主要销往菲律宾，也出口至非洲和美国。

In today’s abnormal times, buyers are hesitating. Shipping delays of 10 to 15 days have become common as carriers slow steam to conserve fuel. Basmati rice from India bound for the Middle East has been unable to get through the Strait of Hormuz. In the Philippines, wholesalers are not sure when there might be enough diesel to move imports around the country.

可在如今这个反常的时期，买家们都开始犹豫。为了节省燃油，航运公司纷纷减速航行，10到15天的船期延误已成常态。印度运往中东的巴斯马蒂大米根本无法通过霍尔木兹海峡。在菲律宾，批发商不确定什么时候能有足够的柴油把进口大米运往全国各地。

That means rice has been piling up across Asia, creating a short-term paradox: wholesale prices declining as production costs rise. After a year of healthy harvests, traders are paying farmers less right now to hedge against future risk.

这意味着大米正在全亚洲各地积压，形成了一个短期悖论：生产成本节节攀升，批发价却持续下跌。在经历了一整年的丰收后，贸易商为了对冲未来风险，如今给农户的收购价反而更低。

一名工人在市场附近的仓库里休息，这个市场平时总是熙熙攘攘。一台大米加工机在两个运行周期之间停机，以节约能源。

If that tamps down inflation, it may not be for long, according to food economy experts, who expect sharper price hikes for crops like vegetables that are harder to stockpile.

粮食经济专家表示，即便这种情况暂时抑制了通胀，也不会持续太久。他们预计，蔬菜等难以储存的作物后续将迎来更剧烈的价格上涨。

“Complex systems have a habit of creating wicked problems,” said Paul Teng Piang Siong, a senior fellow in food security at Singapore’s ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute.

“复杂系统总会滋生出棘手的难题，”新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院粮食安全高级研究员邓烦祥说。

Even if a lasting peace emerges, he added, the consequences of America’s latest military adventure will likely linger for agriculture. In Vietnam, where the soil still holds unexploded American bombs from more than 50 years ago, anger has been firing in many directions.

他还说，即便最终实现了持久和平，美国这场最新的军事冒险对农业造成的影响也很可能长期持续。在越南的土地里，至今还埋着50多年前美军投下的未爆炸弹，如今，民众的不满正向四面八方蔓延。

Nguyen Thanh Can sells diesel at a floating gas station on a major waterway. His tanks can hold around 100,000 liters (about 26,400 gallons) but since the war started, his distributor will only give him a few thousand at a time. When he ran out on a recent weekend, barge captains were furious.

阮清根（音）在一条主航道上经营着一家水上加油站。他的油罐能装约10万升柴油，可战事爆发以来，分销商每次只肯给他几千升。前阵子的一个周末，他的油卖光了，驳船船长们怒不可遏。

“They accused me of holding onto fuel, waiting for prices to go up,” he said. “I had to show them the tanks.”

“他们指责我囤油等着涨价，”他说，“我只能把油罐打开给他们看。”

He swung open a hatch, revealing mostly empty space.

他一把掀开油罐盖子，里面几乎空空如也。

3月下旬收割结束后，工人们搬运着成捆的稻草。一些农民已暂停了原定于5月播种季的计划。47岁的阮清根是湄公河上一座浮动加油站的老板，他向需要给船只加油的顾客出售柴油。

“I’m selling everything I have,” he said. “It’s not just about high prices. I don’t have enough.”

“有多少我就卖多少，”他说，“问题不只是价格高，是我根本就没油可卖。”

On the first day of the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, President Trump laid out his war goals in an eight-minute video.

美以对伊朗发动空袭首日，特朗普总统在一段八分钟的视频中公布了他的战争目标。

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” he said as an overview on Feb. 28, even though there is no evidence that Iran posed an urgent danger to the United States.

2月28日，他在概述讲话中声称：“我们的目标是通过消除伊朗政权迫在眉睫的威胁来保护美国人民。”尽管目前没有任何证据表明伊朗对美国构成了紧迫威胁。

Now with a tenuous cease-fire in place, the president and his aides are expected to try to force Iran to make concessions during negotiations, with the aim of meeting some of the goals he initially stated.

如今，随着一份脆弱的停火协议正式生效，预计总统及其幕僚将试图在谈判期间迫使伊朗做出让步，以期兑现他最初提出的部分目标。

Here is an assessment of where the war stands based on five aims he described in that video.

以下是根据他在视频中描述的五个目标对当前战局所作的评估。

OBJECTIVE No. 1

目标一

“We’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated.”

“我们将摧毁他们的导弹，把他们的导弹工业夷为平地，让它再一次彻底被抹掉。”

The U.S. and Israeli militaries have destroyed many of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers in airstrikes. But a large number are undamaged, and Iran continued to fire missiles in the region on the first day of the cease-fire. In addition, it is using attack drones.

美以两国军队在空袭中摧毁了伊朗大量弹道导弹与发射装置，但仍有大量设施完好无损。停火首日，伊朗仍在该地区持续发射导弹，此外还使用了攻击型无人机。

At least five Gulf Arab nations said Wednesday that they had been attacked by missiles and drones fired by Iran after the agreement to pause combat. Those strikes, along with other developments, including continuing assaults by Israel in Lebanon, could jeopardize the cease-fire. (Iran said its oil refinery on Lavan Island had been attacked.)

周三，至少五个阿拉伯海湾国家表示，在停火协议达成后，它们遭到了伊朗发射的导弹和无人机袭击。这些袭击和以色列持续在黎巴嫩发动进攻等事态发展可能会直接危及本次停火。（伊朗称，其位于拉万岛的炼油厂遭到了袭击。）

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. bombs had hit “more than 450 ballistic missile storage facilities” and 80 percent of Iran’s missile production facilities during the war. But those numbers provide only a limited snapshot.

美国参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周三的新闻发布会上表示，战争期间，美军炸弹击中了“超过450个弹道导弹储存设施”，以及伊朗80%的导弹生产设施。但这些数字只能反映极其有限的局部情况。

Recent U.S. intelligence reports say that the Iranian military has been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs and returning them to operation hours after an attack.

美国最新情报报告显示，伊朗军方一直在清理遭美以炸弹袭击的地下导弹掩体与发射井，在袭击发生数小时后就使其恢复运行。

Some officials in the region say it is impossible to determine how many of Iran’s missiles remain, and they note too that the Iranian military has been hiding mobile launchers.

该地区部分官员表示，目前根本无法确定伊朗还剩余多少导弹，同时他们指出，伊朗军方一直在藏匿机动发射装置。

OBJECTIVE No. 2

目标二

“We’re going to annihilate their navy.”

“我们要全歼他们的海军。”

The United States and Israel have destroyed much of Iran’s navy. A notable attack took place near Sri Lanka in early March, when a U.S. submarine fired torpedoes to sink an Iranian destroyer, the IRIS Dena, which had a crew of 180 people. Most of them were killed.

美以两国已摧毁伊朗海军的大部分力量。3月初，斯里兰卡附近海域发生了一次备受瞩目的袭击：一艘美军潜艇发射鱼雷，击沉了伊朗海军“德纳号”驱逐舰，舰上载有180名船员，其中大多数人身亡。

The ship had taken part in naval exercises in India and was on its way home. The United States had participated in the same exercises. Sri Lanka rescued some survivors. There is no indication the American military made an effort to do so, and that could be a violation of international law under the Geneva Conventions, legal experts say.

该舰此前在印度参加了海军演习，当时正在返航途中，而美国也参与了同一场演习。斯里兰卡救起了部分幸存者，目前没有任何迹象表明美军采取了救援行动。法律专家表示，此举可能违反了《日内瓦公约》框架下的国际法。

The Iranian military continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz with projectiles that can be fired from land.

伊朗军方继续利用陆基发射的弹药掌控霍尔木兹海峡。

OBJECTIVE No. 3

目标三

“We’re going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces, and no longer use their I.E.D.s, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans.”

“我们将确保该地区的恐怖代理组织再也无法破坏地区乃至全球的稳定，再也无法袭击我方部队，再也不能使用他们的简易爆炸装置(IED)——有时也叫路边炸弹——造成成千上万的人员重伤与死亡，其中有很多都是美国人。”

Mr. Trump was referring here to militias in the region that receive financial support and other types of backing from Iran. The militias are still active. Some in Iraq have fired rockets at U.S. diplomatic buildings there during the war, for instance. The most powerful militia, Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has been attacked by Israel in recent years but has not been destroyed. It has fired rockets into Israel in recent weeks.

特朗普此处指的是中东地区接受伊朗资金与各类支持的民兵组织。这些民兵组织目前仍十分活跃。例如，战争期间，伊拉克境内的部分民兵就向当地的美国外交设施发射了火箭弹。实力最强的民兵组织是总部位于黎巴嫩的真主党，尽管近年来持续遭到以色列袭击，却并未被摧毁。该组织在最近几周向以色列境内发射了火箭弹。

Israel has invaded Lebanon and has signaled that it could occupy part of the south. On Wednesday, Israel continued carrying out attacks in Lebanon even though Pakistan and Iran said the two-week cease-fire was supposed to encompass the fighting in that country. Iran threatened to withdraw from the cease-fire because of the ongoing Israeli strikes.

以色列已入侵黎巴嫩，并释放信号称可能占领黎巴嫩南部部分地区。周三，尽管巴基斯坦与伊朗均表示这份为期两周的停火协议应涵盖黎巴嫩境内的战事，以色列仍持续在黎发动袭击。伊朗也因以色列的持续空袭威胁退出停火协议。

Mr. Trump’s reference to I.E.D.s — improvised explosive devices — and roadside bombs is an anachronism: Two decades ago, Iran supported some Iraqi Shiite groups that were fighting American soldiers during the Iraq War. But militias have not been laying roadside bombs to attack Americans in many years.

特朗普提及的简易爆炸装置和路边炸弹是一种过时的表述：20年前的伊拉克战争期间，伊朗曾支持部分与美军作战的伊拉克什叶派组织，但这些民兵组织多年来已不再放置路边炸弹袭击美国人。。

OBJECTIVE No. 4

目标四

“And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”

“我们将确保伊朗无法获得核武器。这是一个非常简单的信息。他们永远不会拥有核武器。”

U.S. intelligence agencies did not assess before the war that Iran had made the decision to develop a nuclear weapon. But the Trump administration has pointed to Iran’s highly enriched uranium, which the government created and stockpiled after Mr. Trump withdrew from an Obama-era nuclear deal in 2018, as evidence that Iran wants the option to make a weapon.

战前，美国情报机构并未评估认定伊朗已做出研发核武器的决定。但特朗普政府将伊朗的高浓缩铀储备作为伊朗谋求核武器制造能力的证据——这些高浓缩铀是特朗普2018年退出奥巴马时期核协议后伊朗生产并囤积的。

Mr. Trump ordered airstrikes last June that severely damaged three nuclear sites in Iran. However, U.S. officials say they think some highly enriched uranium remains in tunnels buried under rubble.

特朗普去年6月下令发动空袭，重创了伊朗三处核设施。但美国官员表示，他们认为仍有部分高浓缩铀埋藏在瓦砾之下的隧道中。

The American president wrote online on Wednesday that the United States would work with Iran to dig up the “Nuclear ‘Dust.’”

周三，美国总统在网络上发文称，美国将与伊朗合作，挖出这些“核‘粉尘’”。

Later on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Iran would give up the uranium but also suggested that the United States could send Special Operations troops to seize the material. Sending troops into Iran to seize the material would be risky.

周三晚些时候，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞思表示，伊朗将放弃这批铀材料，但同时也表示，美国可能派遣特种作战部队夺取这批材料。派遣地面部队进入伊朗境内夺取核材料将面临极高风险。

OBJECTIVE No. 5

目标五

“Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

“最后，我要对伟大、骄傲的伊朗人民说，今夜，你们获得自由的时刻近在眼前。待在避难所里，不要出门，外面危机四伏，炸弹将随处落下。等我们的行动结束后，去接管你们的政府吧，它将由你们掌控。这可能是你们几代人里唯一的一次机会。”

This came near the end of Mr. Trump’s video address. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had promised Mr. Trump in the run-up to the war that his country could help galvanize a popular uprising that would lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government. That revolt has not materialized.

这段话出现在特朗普视频讲话的结尾部分。战前筹备阶段，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾向特朗普承诺，以色列将协助煽动伊朗民众起义，推翻伊朗政府。但这场起义并未发生。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth say the United States has carried out “regime change,” and point to airstrikes that have killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and other senior officials.

特朗普与海格塞思声称，美国已经完成了“政权更迭”，并指出空袭炸死了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高层官员。

However, the newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain cleric, is a hard-liner aligned with a powerful arm of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The current government remains theocratic, authoritarian and anti-American, and continues to wage a war of resistance.

然而，新任最高领袖是遇刺的神职领袖之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，他属于强硬派，与伊朗军方的强大力量伊斯兰革命卫队深度结盟。伊朗现任政府依然是神权专制的反美政权，并持续发动抵抗战争。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the president’s national security adviser, expressed some doubt in a recent interview with ABC News about whether anything had really changed in Iran.

近期在接受ABC新闻采访时，兼任总统国家安全顾问的国务卿鲁比奥对伊朗是否真的发生了实质性变化表达了明确质疑。

“The people who lead them, this clerical regime, that is the problem,” he said. “And if there are new people now in charge who have a more reasonable vision of the future, that would be good news for us, for them, for the entire world. But we also have to be prepared for the possibility, maybe even the probability, that that is not the case.”

“问题在于领导他们的这群人，这个神权政权，”他说。“如果现在掌权的新领导层，对未来有更理性的构想，那对我们、对他们、对整个世界而言，都会是好消息。但我们也必须做好准备，迎接这种情况不会发生，甚至大概率不会发生的可能性。”

A tenuous cease-fire between the United States and Iran was being tested on Wednesday by heavy Israeli bombardment in Lebanon, which Israel and President Trump insisted was not part of the cease-fire deal, and by continued Iranian attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors.

美伊之间脆弱的停火协议在周三受到了严峻考验：以色列对黎巴嫩发动了猛烈轰炸，而以色列和特朗普总统坚称此次行动不属于停火协议范围；同时，伊朗继续对其波斯湾邻国发动袭击。

Although the cease-fire promised to bring two weeks of relative calm to the Middle East and buy time for Iran and the United States to hammer out a longer-term peace deal, many questions remained about the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, the safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and whether ongoing Iranian and Israeli attacks could upend the diplomatic process.

这份停火协议有望为中东地区带来两周相对平静的时期，并为伊朗与美国达成更长期的和平协议争取时间，但伊朗高浓缩铀的处置、霍尔木兹海峡船只的安全通行，以及伊朗和以色列持续的攻击是否会颠覆外交进程，仍然是未知数。

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, who helped broker the cease-fire that was announced on Tuesday, wrote on social media on Wednesday that violations had been reported in several places, “which undermine the spirit” of the peace process.

巴基斯坦总理谢赫巴兹·谢里夫参与促成了周二宣布的这份停火协议，周三，他在社交媒体上发文称，已有多地报告违反停火的情况，这破坏了和平进程的“精神”。

“I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict,” he wrote.

“我真诚而恳切地敦促各方保持克制，遵守双方商定的两周停火，以便让外交能够在和平解决冲突中发挥主导作用，”他写道。

Talks aimed at a long-term agreement were set to begin on Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed that Iranian leaders would take part in the negotiations. The Trump administration said it would send Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, a special envoy, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law.

旨在达成长期协议的谈判定于周六在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡开始。伊朗最高国家安全委员会证实，伊朗领导人将参加谈判。特朗普政府表示，将派副总统JD·万斯、特使史蒂夫·维特科夫以及特朗普总统的女婿贾里德·库什纳出席。

Mr. Trump said that his administration would “work closely with Iran,” a stark shift in tone after he demanded Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” for weeks and threatened to destroy the country’s “whole civilization” if it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night.

特朗普表示，他的政府将“与伊朗密切合作”，这与他几周来要求德黑兰“无条件投降”，并威胁如果伊朗不在周二晚上前重新开放霍尔木兹海峡就将摧毁其“整个文明”的强硬语气形成了鲜明对比。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that U.S. officials were working on a modified peace plan that would closely mirror a 15-point proposal that Mr. Trump put forward weeks ago, “so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，美国官员正在制定一份修改后的和平计划，该计划将与特朗普几周前提出的15点方案基本一致，“只要霍尔木兹海峡保持开放。”

The status of the strait was just one of many uncertainties on Wednesday.

霍尔木兹海峡的现状只是周三众多不确定因素中的一个。

Iran, which had effectively choked off most crude oil and natural gas shipments through the strait during the war, was supposed to reopen the waterway during the two-week cease-fire. But it was unclear if the strait was open on Wednesday, and who was in control of it. One Iranian news outlet reported that shipping in the strait had been halted in response to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon. Ms. Leavitt dismissed that report as “false.”

伊朗在战争期间已经实质上切断通过该海峡的大部分原油和天然气运输，按照停火协议，它应在两周停火期间重新开放该水道。但截至周三，有关海峡是否已经开放、由谁控制等问题，仍无法明确。一家伊朗新闻媒体报道称，鉴于以色列对伊朗支持的黎巴嫩真主党发动袭击，海峡航运已被暂停。莱维特驳斥该报道为“虚假消息”。

“We have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today,” she told reporters at the White House, “and I will reiterate the president’s expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely.”

“我们今天看到海峡的交通流量有所增加，”她在白宫告诉记者，“我再次重申总统的期望和要求：霍尔木兹海峡必须立即、迅速且安全地重新开放。”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said the cease-fire with Iran was “not the end of the battle.”

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，与伊朗的停火“并非战斗的结束”。

“It is a stop on the way to achieving all of our objectives,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday. “We have more objectives to achieve, and we will achieve them — either by agreement, or by resuming the fighting.”

“这只是我们实现所有目标途中的一个停顿，”内塔尼亚胡周三在一份声明中说。“我们还有更多目标要实现，我们将通过协议或恢复战斗来实现它们。”

Iranian leaders accused the United States of not holding up its side of the cease-fire, making the future of the truce even murkier. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, said the United States had already breached several principles of the deal.

伊朗领导人指责美国没有履行停火协议中的义务，这让停火的前景更加扑朔迷离。伊朗议会发言人穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫表示，美国已经违反了协议中的多项原则。

Israel was still attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Mr. Ghalibaf said was a violation of the truce. He added that a hostile drone also entered Iranian airspace in violation of the cease-fire.

以色列仍在对黎巴嫩的真主党发动攻击，加利巴夫称这违反了停火协议。他还称一架敌方无人机闯入伊朗领空，同样违反了停火规定。

Mr. Ghalibaf said the truce and the upcoming negotiations with the United States were “unreasonable” given these issues and continuing U.S. opposition to Iranian nuclear enrichment. Still, he stopped short of saying Iran would pull out of the cease-fire or withdraw from the talks in Islamabad.

加利巴夫表示，鉴于这些问题以及美国继续反对伊朗的核浓缩活动，即将到来的停火与美国谈判是“不合理的”。不过，他并未明确表示伊朗将退出停火或撤出在伊斯兰堡的谈判。

Ms. Leavitt and Mr. Netanyahu said the cease-fire did not extend to Lebanon, contradicting Iran and Mr. Sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, who said that Lebanon was protected under the deal.

莱维特和内塔尼亚胡均表示，停火协议不包括黎巴嫩，这与伊朗以及巴基斯坦总理谢里夫的说法相矛盾，后者称黎巴嫩受到该协议的保护。

On Wednesday, Israel carried out the biggest bombardment of Lebanon in its monthlong war against Hezbollah, which started firing rockets into Israel in March in solidarity with Iran.

周三，以色列对黎巴嫩发动了在其针对真主党长达一个月的战争中规模最大的轰炸行动。真主党自3月起开始向以色列发射火箭弹，以支援伊朗。

Israeli jets pummeled the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and other parts of the country, with many strikes hitting densely populated areas without warning. The Israeli military said it had targeted more than 100 Hezbollah targets in the span of just 10 minutes.

以色列战机猛烈轰炸黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特以及该国其他地区，许多袭击在没有预警的情况下击中了人口稠密地区。以色列军方表示，在短短10分钟内就打击了100多个真主党目标。

Residents had no time to flee as munitions rained down on crowded neighborhoods, some once considered safe.

当弹药如雨点般落在拥挤的居民区时，居民们根本来不及逃离，其中一些街区曾被认为是安全的。

At least 182 people were killed and about 900 others were injured, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, making it among the deadliest days since the war began. Search teams were looking for more bodies under the rubble of apartment buildings, and the sound of ambulances echoed across Beirut as plumes of thick, acrid smoke rose above the skyline.

根据黎巴嫩卫生部的统计，至少有182人死亡，约900人受伤，这是战争爆发以来最血腥的日子之一。搜救队正在公寓楼的废墟下寻找更多遇难者遗体，救护车的鸣笛声回荡在贝鲁特上空，浓烈刺鼻的黑烟在城市天际线上升腾。

周三，黎巴嫩贝鲁特马兹拉滨海区遭空袭后的景象。

The truce was also strained by continued Iranian attacks reported by Persian Gulf countries on Wednesday. Kuwait’s army said that since 8 a.m. local time, the country had faced 28 Iranian drone attacks, some of which had targeted “vital oil and power facilities” and caused extensive damage.

波斯湾国家周三报告的伊朗持续袭击也让停火协议承受压力。科威特军方表示，自当地时间上午8时以来，该国已遭遇28次伊朗无人机袭击，其中一些针对“重要的石油和电力设施”，并造成严重破坏。

In the United Arab Emirates, the defense ministry reported 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drone attacks launched by Iran since the beginning of the cease-fire. And the Saudi defense ministry said on Wednesday afternoon that it had intercepted nine drones in recent hours, without naming an attacker.

在阿拉伯联合酋长国，国防部报告称，自停火开始以来，伊朗已发射17枚弹道导弹和35架无人机。沙特国防部周三下午表示，最近几小时内拦截了九架无人机，但未指明攻击者。

It was unclear why the attacks were continuing, despite the truce and the beginning of what Mr. Trump called “a big day for World Peace.” Iran’s state media also reported that an oil refinery on Lavan, an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf, had been struck by unspecified “enemies.”

尽管停火已经开始，且特朗普称这是“世界和平的重要一天”，但这些袭击为何仍在继续，目前尚不得而知。伊朗官方媒体还报道称，位于波斯湾拉万岛的一座炼油厂遭到不明“敌人”的袭击。

Looming over the cease-fire was the possibility of further U.S. and Israeli military action in Iran.

停火协议上空还笼罩着美国和以色列可能对伊朗采取进一步军事行动的阴影。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Wednesday that all U.S. military objectives had been achieved in what Mr. Hegseth called “a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.”

美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军周三对记者表示，美国在海格塞斯所称的“战场上的一次历史性的、压倒性的胜利”中已实现所有军事目标。

But Mr. Hegseth suggested that Mr. Trump could still order a U.S. commando raid to seize Iran’s stockpile of 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Such a mission would at a minimum involve hundreds of U.S. Special Operations troops and would come with high risks, current and former commanders say.

但海格塞斯暗示，特朗普仍可能下令美军特种部队突袭，以夺取约440公斤的伊朗高浓缩铀库存。现任和前任指挥官均表示，此类任务至少需要动用数百名美国特种作战部队士兵，且风险极高。

“They will either give it to us,” Mr. Hegseth said of the uranium, “or we’ll take it out.”

“他们要么把铀交给我们，”海格塞斯谈到这些高浓缩铀时说，“要么我们就自己去取。”

Two rows of storage tanks the height of 20-story buildings, filled with liquefied gas, help explain why China is better prepared than many countries to endure the interruption of gas supplies from the Middle East.

两排20层楼高的储罐，里面装满了液化天然气，这在一定程度上解释了为什么中国比许多国家更有能力应对来自中东的天然气供应中断。

Each of six tanks in Yancheng, an industrial port, holds enough natural gas to meet the household needs of Beijing’s 22 million people for more than two months. Adjacent to them are four more tanks that are only slightly smaller.

在工业港口盐城的六座储罐中，每一座都储存着足以满足北京2200万人口两个多月的家庭用气需求。旁边还有另外四个梯级略小的储罐。

The storage tanks are part of a huge effort by China over the past decade to accumulate stockpiles of all kinds of commodities, from pork and rice to rare-earth metals and coal, in case of a disruption of overseas supplies. But the natural gas stockpiles — the world’s largest above ground are in Yancheng, with more giant storage tanks in southern China — are conspicuously important now. They have helped China cushion the supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East even as its Asian neighbors, including India, Pakistan and Vietnam, are running low on natural gas.

这些储罐是中国过去十年来大规模囤积各种大宗商品（从猪肉、大米到稀土金属和煤炭）努力的一部分，以防海外供应中断。但天然气库存——盐城拥有全球最大的地面储气设施，中国南方还有更多巨型储罐——现在显得格外重要。它们帮助中国缓冲了中东战争造成的供应冲击，而包括印度、巴基斯坦和越南在内的亚洲邻国正面临天然气短缺。

On Tuesday evening, the United States and Iran reached a cease-fire deal that would open the strait and allow tankers and other freighters carrying oil, gas and other commodities to proceed through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been effectively closed since the first U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran five and a half weeks ago.

周二晚，美国与伊朗达成停火协议，霍尔木兹海峡将重新开放，使运载石油、天然气及其他大宗商品的油轮和货船得以通过。自五个半星期前美以对伊朗发动首次打击以来，该海峡实际上一直处于关闭状态。

No matter when regular traffic resumes, Qatar, a country on the Persian Gulf and one of the world’s top exporters of liquefied natural gas, has said it may take years to repair its gas facilities.

无论何时恢复正常通行，位于波斯湾、且是全球主要液化天然气出口国之一的卡塔尔表示，其天然气设施可能需要数年时间才能修复。

China is the world’s largest importer of natural gas and the largest consumer of fertilizer, much of which is made from natural gas. China also has the biggest chemicals industry, much of which requires natural gas as well.

中国是全球最大的天然气进口国，也是最大的化肥消费国，而化肥大多以天然气为原料。中国还拥有全球最大的化工产业，其中很大一部分同样依赖天然气。

The country has other supply options besides the storage tanks, which hold liquefied natural gas brought in by sea. It has constructed pipelines to gas fields in Central Asia and Russia. China has developed coal-based processes that can replace natural gas in making some kinds of chemicals. And China has more than doubled its domestic production of natural gas in the past decade through fracking and other technologies.

除了通过海运进口并储存在储罐中的液化天然气外，中国还拥有其他供应渠道。该国已修建通往中亚和俄罗斯气田的管道，还开发了煤基工艺，在生产某些化工产品时替代天然气。此外，通过水力压裂等技术，中国在过去十年中将国内天然气产量提高了一倍以上。

While the United States now leads the world in oil and natural gas production by a wide margin, China is the fourth-largest producer of natural gas, trailing only the United States, Russia and Iran. China is the fifth-largest oil producer, behind the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada.

尽管美国目前在石油和天然气产量上遥遥领先于全球，但中国已是全球第四大天然气生产国，仅次于美国、俄罗斯和伊朗。中国还是全球第五大石油生产国，排在美国、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和加拿大之后。

Chinese government data shows that natural gas imports through the Strait of Hormuz represented only 6.9 percent of the country’s overall gas consumption last year.

中国政府数据显示，去年通过霍尔木兹海峡进口的天然气仅占其天然气总消费量的6.9%。

Beijing’s top leaders have long been preoccupied with their country’s vulnerability to pressure from the American or Indian navies on their seaborne supply of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. The country’s programs to develop solar and wind power and electric cars as alternatives to oil all moved into high gear 20 years ago.

北京高层长期以来一直担心从中东经海路进口石油和天然气易受美国或印度海军施压的影响。因此，中国在发展太阳能、风能以及电动汽车等石油替代方案上，早在20年前就已全面提速。

“They’ve been thinking about this for a long time,” said Geoffrey Garrett, the dean of the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.

南加州大学马歇尔商学院院长杰弗里·加勒特表示：“他们考虑这个问题已经很久了。”

China’s expansion of strategic stockpiles of fossil fuels is more recent, an effort pushed by its top leader, Xi Jinping. He has uttered dark warnings about the challenges facing the globe and the need for China to depend on commodities and technologies found within its borders.

中国扩大化石燃料战略储备则是更为近期的事情，是在最高领导人习近平推动下展开的。他曾多次就全球面临的挑战发出形势严峻的警告，强调中国需要依靠本国资源和技术。

In a speech in 2022, he called for China to “enhance coal, oil and gas storage capacity, promote the large-scale application of advanced energy storage technologies, and improve the capacity for self-sufficient energy supply.”

在2022年的一次讲话中，他要求中国“加强煤气油储备能力建设，推进先进储能技术规模化应用，提升能源自主供给能力”。

There are gaps in China’s stockpiles. Chinese officials have discussed the creation of a national reserve for helium, which is crucial to the manufacturing of semiconductors. China imports large quantities of helium from the Persian Gulf, and there has been no sign that China started a stockpile of the commodity before Iran closed the strait.

中国的储备仍存在一些短板。中国官员曾讨论建立国家氦气储备，而氦气对半导体制造至关重要。中国从波斯湾进口大量氦气，且没有迹象表明在伊朗封锁海峡之前中国已开始储备这种大宗商品。

China’s natural gas reserves, together with imports from places that are not affected by fighting in the Mideast, like Australia, Turkmenistan and Russia, are ample for home heating and cooking. Households, including residential electricity use, represent less than 15 percent of China’s natural gas consumption. China is also finishing its second consecutive warm winter, and residential gas demand has dropped steeply with the end of the heating season last month.

中国的天然气储备，加上来自澳大利亚、土库曼斯坦和俄罗斯等未受中东战事影响地区的进口，足以满足家庭取暖和烹饪需求。包括居民用电在内的家庭用气占中国天然气消费量的不到15%。此外，中国正经历连续第二个暖冬，随着上个月供暖季结束，居民用气需求大幅下降。

The country generates only 4 percent of its electricity from natural gas, and can easily replace that with coal and, to some extent, renewable energy. Within days of the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Premier Li Qiang, China’s second-highest official, called for the country to “create a safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, resilient, intelligent and flexible new power grid,” according to People’s Daily, the official newspaper of China’s Communist Party.

中国仅有4%的电力来自天然气，可以轻易地用煤炭以及在某种程度上用可再生能源替代。据中共机关报《人民日报》报道，在美以对伊朗开战后的几天内，中国二号人物、国务院总理李强就要求“打造安全可靠、绿色低碳、坚强韧性、智能灵活的新型电网”。

Natural gas is particularly difficult to store. The easiest approach is to keep it underground by pumping it into salt caverns or into previously exhausted underground natural gas fields near big cities. But China has few of these caverns and fields relative to its enormous population.

天然气尤其难以储存。最简单的方法是通过将其泵入盐穴或大城市附近已枯竭的地下天然气田进行地下储存。但相对于中国庞大的人口，这类洞穴和气田很少。

That has prompted it to pursue a technologically audacious strategy: storing enormous quantities of supercooled gas as a liquid in aboveground storage tanks. The state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation disclosed in December that it had built 18 of its largest size of storage tanks for liquefied natural gas — more than twice as many as the rest of the world combined.

这促使中国采取一种技术上颇为大胆的策略：经超低温液化后，将天然气储存在地面大型储罐中。中国海洋石油集团在去年12月披露，已建成18个最大规格的液化天然气储罐——数量超过全球其他地区总和的两倍。

South Korea is constructing seven equally large L.N.G. tanks about 75 miles south of Seoul, to be completed in stages by the end of 2029. Japan has also begun building slightly smaller storage tanks.

韩国正在首尔以南约120公里的地方建设七个同等规模的液化天然气储罐，预计将在2029年底前分阶段完工。日本也已开始建设规模略小的储罐。

Each of China’s superlarge tanks, including the six at Yancheng, has a volume of 9.5 million cubic feet. By comparison, the arena at Madison Square Garden in New York City has a volume of 6.2 million cubic feet.

中国每个超大型储罐（包括盐城的六个）的罐容为27万立方米。作为对比，纽约市麦迪逊广场花园球馆的容积约为18万立方米。

2017年，中国保定的一处液化天然气储存设施。过去十年间，中国已发展出储存远超以往规模的技术。

The row of enormous storage tanks in Yancheng holds liquefied natural gas at a temperature of minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 162 degrees Celsius. When the gas is allowed to warm gradually to room temperature through a system of pipes, it expands 600-fold. The tanks in Yancheng are connected to a long pier into the Yellow Sea to unload L.N.G. from ships.

盐城这一排巨型储罐中储存的液化天然气温度为摄氏零下162度。当气体通过管道系统逐步回温至室温时，体积会膨胀600倍。盐城的这些储罐连接着一个伸入黄海的长码头，用于从船上卸载液化天然气。

Papers published in Chinese engineering journals reveal the design breakthroughs involved in holding enormous quantities of supercooled natural gas, which can be explosive if ignited or warmed too quickly.

中国工程类期刊发表的论文显示，在储存大量超低温天然气方面取得了一系列设计突破，因为这种气体一旦被点燃或升温过快，存在爆炸风险。

Each storage tank has an outer concrete frame to provide rigidity. Inside the concrete walls is a second layer of flexible plates made from a special steel alloy with a lot of manganese and nickel. Sophisticated robots weld the plates.

每个储罐都有一个混凝土外层框架以提供刚性。混凝土壁内部是由一种含大量锰和镍的特殊钢合金制成的柔性板材。先进的机器人负责焊接这些板材。

China has one more tool to make sure it has enough natural gas: making less fertilizer for export. Analysts say that since the start of the war in Iran, China has already halted most of its overseas fertilizer sales.

中国还有一项手段来确保天然气的充足：减少用于出口的化肥产量。分析人士表示，自伊朗战争爆发以来，中国已停止了大部分化肥出口。

While farmers in the United States, India and elsewhere have expressed concern about fertilizer shortages this spring, residents of villages near the Yancheng L.N.G. storage tanks said they had plenty. At a nearby store, tall stacks of fertilizer were displayed for sale.

尽管美国、印度等地的农民对今年春季可能出现的化肥短缺表示担忧，但在盐城液化天然气储罐附近村庄的居民表示，他们的供应十分充足。在附近的一家商店里，可以看到高高堆放的化肥正在出售。

The fertilizer store’s salesman, who gave his family name, Liu, said China’s authorities had made sure that fertilizer was abundantly available and that prices did not rise too sharply.

这家化肥店的刘姓售货员表示，中国的有关部门确保化肥供应充足，价格不会出现大幅上涨。

“I stocked up quite a bit of fertilizer in advance — after all, there’s a war going on in the Middle East,” he added.

“我提前囤了不少化肥——毕竟中东正在打仗，”他补充道。

For years, China has been one of Iran’s most important lifelines. China has bought almost all of its oil exports, shielded it diplomatically and helped it weather international isolation. Now, according to three Iranian officials, Beijing has used that influence for a different purpose: to press Iran to accept the cease-fire with the United States.

多年来，中国一直是伊朗最重要的生命线之一。中国买下了伊朗几乎全部的石油出口，在外交上为其提供庇护，并帮助其抵御国际孤立。如今，据三名伊朗官员透露，北京利用这种影响力达到了另一个目的：施压伊朗接受与美国的停火协议。

Iran’s decision to accept the two-week cease-fire proposal brokered by Pakistan came after diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and a last-minute push by China, according to the Iranian officials. China asked Iran to show flexibility and defuse tensions, they said.

据这些伊朗官员介绍，伊朗接受由巴基斯坦斡旋的两周停火提议是在巴基斯坦的外交努力以及中国在最后时刻的推促下作出的。他们表示，中国要求伊朗展现灵活性并缓和紧张局势。

The intervention reflects not only Beijing’s influence over Tehran but also its own stake in preventing a protracted war that could disrupt energy supplies or set off a global recession, as well as hurt Persian Gulf countries, with which China also has close relations. The deal also calls for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

中国的介入不仅反映出北京对德黑兰的影响力，也表明中国自身同样不希望出现持久战，那将会扰乱能源供应或引发全球经济衰退，并伤害到与中国关系密切的海湾国家。该协议还要求立即开放霍尔木兹海峡。

Chinese officials have not publicly described Beijing’s involvement in the lead-up to the deal announced by President Trump on Tuesday night. Asked on Wednesday if China had helped persuade Iran to agree to the deal, a foreign ministry spokeswoman in Beijing neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, saying only generally that China would continue to “maintain communication with all parties and continue to work toward de-escalating tensions and bringing about a comprehensive cease-fire.”

中国官员尚未公开说明北京在特朗普总统于周二晚宣布该协议前所发挥的作用。周三，在被问及中国是否帮助说服伊朗同意该协议时，中国外交部的一名发言人既未证实，也未否认，仅笼统地表示，中国将继续“同各方保持沟通，继续为缓和局势、平息战火作出努力”。

The deal, which Iran described as a victory in which Washington had accepted its terms, came 90 minutes before a deadline set by Mr. Trump for Iran to accede to his demands or risk widespread devastation.

伊朗将这项协议描述为一场胜利，称华盛顿接受了它的条件。协议达成时，距离特朗普设定的最后期限仅剩90分钟——特朗普要求伊朗在此期限前接受要求，否则将面临大规模打击。

China’s moves in recent days reflect the delicate balance that Beijing is trying to strike. At the United Nations on Tuesday, Beijing backed Iran by joining Moscow in vetoing a Security Council resolution that could have paved the way for military action to open the Strait of Hormuz. But behind the scenes, by the Iranian officials’ description, China also urged Tehran to pull back from escalation.

中国近几日的举动反映出北京试图维持的微妙平衡。周二在联合国，中国站在了伊朗一边，与俄罗斯一起否决了一项安理会决议，该决议本可为以军事行动打开霍尔木兹海峡铺平道路。但按这些伊朗官员的说法，在幕后，中国也敦促德黑兰避免局势升级。

Wu Xinbo, a prominent foreign policy expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, said he believed that China had played an active role in achieving the cease-fire, not just by encouraging Pakistan to play a role as a mediator but also by directly encouraging Iran to strike a deal.

上海复旦大学著名外交政策专家吴心伯表示，他认为中国在促成停火方面发挥了积极作用，不仅鼓励巴基斯坦充当调解角色，也直接推动伊朗达成协议。

The top Chinese foreign affairs official, Wang Yi, made a flurry of calls to his counterparts in the region emphasizing the need for a cease-fire and for countries not to resort to force to reopen the strait, according to the foreign ministry. Last week, he met in Beijing with Pakistani officials, who came to the Chinese capital after hosting a meeting in Islamabad with officials from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to discuss a possible resolution of the conflict.

据中国外交部称，中国最高外交官员王毅与该地区的各国外长进行了密集通话，强调停火的必要性，并呼吁各国不要为了海峡的重新开放而诉诸武力。上周，他在北京会见了巴基斯坦官员，在来到中国首都之前，巴方官员刚在伊斯兰堡主持了与土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和埃及官员的会议，讨论可能的冲突解决方案。

Pakistan and Iran are both heavily dependent on China. Loans from China have become vital to keeping the heavily indebted Pakistani economy afloat. And China has played a central role over the last several years in supporting the Iranian economy, by buying almost all of its oil exports at a time when many other countries avoided doing business with Iran because of its nuclear weapons program.

巴基斯坦和伊朗都在很大程度上依赖中国。中国提供的贷款已成为维持债务沉重的巴基斯坦经济运转的关键支撑。而在过去几年中，中国在支持伊朗经济方面发挥了核心作用——在多国因伊朗核武器计划而避免与其做生意的情况下，中国购买了伊朗几乎全部的石油出口。

Shen Dingli, an independent international relations scholar in Shanghai, noted that China had sought to distance itself from Iran since the war began. Beijing sent only a vice foreign minister to the Iranian Embassy to express condolences on the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who had been killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

上海的独立国际关系学者沈丁立指出，自战争爆发以来，中国一直试图与伊朗保持距离。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在美以对伊朗的打击中丧生后，北京仅派了一位外交部副部长前往伊朗大使馆吊唁。

Mr. Wang, the foreign minister, in one of his calls with his Iranian counterpart, even urged Tehran to “pay attention to the legitimate concerns of its neighbors,” meaning the Gulf nations, Mr. Shen noted.

沈丁立还提到，外长王毅在与伊朗外长的一次通话中，甚至敦促德黑兰“重视邻国合理关切”，这里的邻国指海湾国家。

China has often tried to cast itself as a mediator on the world stage and a responsible global power, in unspoken contrast to the United States. It helped broker a surprise rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, for example. But other attempts have been less successful. Beijing set forth a 12-point peace plan for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a three-part proposal for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, both of which were vague and saw little apparent follow-up.

中国经常试图将自己塑造为世界舞台上的调解者和负责任的全球大国——与美国形成不言而喻的对比。例如，2023年，中国促成了沙特阿拉伯与伊朗之间出人意料的复交。但其他尝试则不那么成功。北京为俄乌战争提出了12点和平计划，并就以色列与巴勒斯坦的“两国方案”提出三点思路，但它们都较为笼统，后续推进也不明显。

It seems like a familiar rite of passage: a dad teaching his daughter to drive. Except in this case, the girl is at the helm of a hulking battle tank, her head sticking out from the driver’s hatch, while the father — the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un — reclines on the hull behind her.

这一幕看起来就像是爸爸教女儿开车这种人们熟悉的成长仪式。只不过在这个场景里，女孩驾驶的是一辆庞大的主战坦克，她的头从驾驶员舱口探出来，而她的父亲——朝鲜最高领导人金正恩——正斜靠在她身后的坦克车体上。

The video and photographs of the girl, Kim Ju-ae, who is believed to be around 13, apparently driving the heavily armed vehicle during a military exercise, were published last month by North Korean state media. It was the latest in a series of public appearances that have fueled speculation that she is being groomed to succeed her father.

上个月，朝鲜官方媒体发布了这段视频和照片，画面中，据信年约13岁的女孩金主爱在一场军事演习中驾驶着这辆重装甲车辆。这是她一系列公开亮相中的最新一次，外界由此愈发猜测，她正被培养为父亲的接班人。

That theory has gained added credence from South Korea’s spy agency, which now believes Ju-ae has officially been chosen to succeed her father, South Korean lawmakers briefed on the matter said on Monday. They added that the agency’s analysis was based on “credible intelligence” rather than circumstantial context.

听取了相关简报的韩国议员周一表示，韩国情报机构为这一论断提供了更多佐证，该机构目前认为，金主爱已被正式选定为父亲的接班人。议员们还称，情报机构的分析基于“可靠情报”，而非间接旁证。

In the tank video, Mr. Kim is shown riding on the hull, smiling and occasionally leaning down to speak to his daughter, who is looking straight ahead.

在坦克驾驶的视频中，金正恩坐在车体上，面带微笑，时不时俯身和目视前方的女儿交谈。

The images seemed to be “an intent to highlight Ju-ae’s military exceptionality” and “dilute skepticism of a female heir,” said Park Sun-won, a lawmaker on the South Korean parliamentary intelligence committee.

韩国国会情报委员会议员朴宣元（音）表示，这些画面意在“凸显金主爱在军事领域的非凡资质”，同时“消解外界对女性继承人的质疑”。

The existence of Ju-ae, along with her name and age, was first revealed by the retired N.B.A. star Dennis Rodman, who visited Mr. Kim in 2013. She made her public debut at a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2022. Just this year, she has been spotted alongside her 42-year-old father at inspections of arms factories and other missile launches, and she has been seen shooting pistols with senior military officials and firing a sniper rifle.

金主爱的存在、姓名与年龄最早是由已退役的NBA球星丹尼斯·罗德曼2013年访朝会见金正恩时对外披露的。2022年，她在一次洲际弹道导弹试射活动中首次公开亮相。仅在今年，她就多次被目击陪同42岁的父亲视察军工厂、观摩导弹发射，还被拍到与军方高级官员一同练习手枪射击、操作狙击步枪。

Lim Eul-chul, a scholar of North Korea at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said that surrounding Ju-ae with such martial imagery at an early age was a calculated strategy to craft the legitimacy she needs to rule over North Korea’s deeply patriarchal political system. Since the country’s founding in 1948, all of its leaders — Mr. Kim and his father and grandfather — have been men.

首尔远东问题研究所朝鲜问题学者林乙哲（音）表示，在金主爱年纪尚幼时就为其塑造大量军事化形象是一项精心策划的策略，目的是为她在朝鲜根深蒂固的父权政治体系中执政奠定合法性基础。自1948年建国以来，朝鲜历任最高领导人——金正恩及其父亲和祖父——均为男性。

Mr. Lim said, “In order for a woman to assume the position of supreme leader, it is very important for them to show that they have the military experience and knowledge that can put them on equal footing with men.”

林乙哲说：“对于一名女性而言，要登上最高领导人的位置，至关重要的一点是向外界证明，她拥有能与男性平起平坐的军事经验与知识。”

“Building a narrative of courage is very important,” he noted.

他特别指出：“构建关于勇气的叙事非常重要。”

Though Mr. Kim’s rule is not expected to end anytime soon, Mr. Lim added, the North Korean leader is most likely beginning the process for his daughter while she is still young to dampen potential objections.

林乙哲还说，尽管目前预计金正恩的执政不会在短期内结束，但这位朝鲜最高领导人很可能趁女儿尚且年幼时就启动接班布局，平息潜在的反对声音。

“Over the years, Kim Ju-ae will be shown going through many experiences, sharing in the happiness and sadness of the North Korean people,” Mr. Lim said. “Eventually, any initial resistance to her succession will turn into resigned acceptance.”

“未来数年，外界会看到金主爱经历各类历练，与朝鲜人民同甘共苦，”林乙哲说。“最终，对她接班的所有最初抵触都会转变为无奈的接纳。”

South Korea’s spy agency previously said that it believed Mr. Kim had up to three children, and that the eldest might be a boy. In recent years, amid Ju-ae’s conspicuous ascent, some have speculated that the son has a disability, has otherwise been deemed unfit or might still one day materialize to sideline his sister.

韩国情报机构此前曾表示，据信金正恩最多有三个孩子，长子可能是一个男孩。近些年，在金主爱高调崛起的过程中，有外界猜测，这个儿子可能存在残疾，或因其他原因被认为不适合继位，也有可能在未来某天突然现身，取代妹妹的位置。

Mr. Lim said that he was among the skeptics of the theory that a son might suddenly appear.

林乙哲表示，他并不认同这个儿子会突然现身的说法。

“To have a son but not reveal him would go against Kim Jong-un’s leadership style,” he said. “Unlike his father or grandfather, who tried to promote a mysticism around their bloodline, Kim Jong-un has shown himself to be much more forthcoming about his family, whether it’s his wife or sister.”

“明明有儿子却始终不对外公开，这不符合金正恩的执政风格，”他说，“他的父亲和祖父始终试图为自身血统营造神秘感，而金正恩截然不同，无论是妻子还是妹妹，他对自己的家庭情况向来更为坦率。”

Mr. Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, and his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, have built up their own public profiles in recent years. Kim Yo-jong had herself been floated as a possible heir.

近些年，金正恩的妻子李雪主、妹妹金与正都已树立起各自的公众形象，金与正还曾一度被视作潜在的接班人。

Ju-ae has been portrayed as both a loving daughter and a budding diplomat, meeting Alexander Matsegora, at the time the Russian ambassador to North Korea, in 2024.

金主爱被塑造出的形象既是乖巧孝顺的女儿，又是初露锋芒的外交官，2024年她曾与时任俄罗斯驻朝鲜大使亚历山大·马采戈拉会面。

At times, Ju-ae has even taken precedence over her father in photographs — a highly unusual decision that analysts said would have not been cleared without Mr. Kim’s sign-off.

有时，金主爱在照片中的站位甚至优于父亲——分析人士称，这是一个极不寻常的决定，未经金正恩本人批准绝不可能通过。

The United States and Iran reached an 11th-hour cease-fire deal on Tuesday evening, hours after President Trump threatened to start wiping out Iran’s “whole civilization” if it did not allow commercial shipping to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.

周二晚间，美国与伊朗在最后一刻达成停火协议。此前数小时，特朗普总统还曾威胁称，如果伊朗不允许商业航运安全通过霍尔木兹海峡，美国将开始摧毁伊朗的“整个文明”。

The agreement was announced by Mr. Trump in a post on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in the dispute, urged him to stand down from the 8 p.m. Eastern time deadline he had set for Iran to accede to his demands. Pakistan proposed that each side observe a two-week cease-fire, and that during that time Iran allow oil, gas and other vessels to proceed unmolested through the economically vital waterway.

该协议由特朗普在社交媒体上发帖宣布，此前数小时，作为争端调解方的巴基斯坦敦促他撤回此前设定的美东时间晚上8点的最后期限——他曾限定伊朗在此期限前接受他的要求。巴基斯坦提议双方实施为期两周的停火，在此期间，伊朗应允许石油、天然气及其他船只不受干扰地通过这一对全球经济至关重要的水道。

The cease-fire buys both sides time to try to reach a longer-term end to the war, which began at the end of February with the United States and Israel subjecting Iran to a withering military assault.

停火为双方争取了时间，以便寻求达成时间更久的停战协议。这场战争始于2月底，当时美国和以色列对伊朗发动了猛烈的军事打击。

Mr. Trump said that the agreement was “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”

特朗普表示，该协议“以伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即、安全开放霍尔木兹海峡为前提”。

Iran accepted Pakistan’s cease-fire proposal after frantic diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and last-minute intervention by China, a key ally, according to three Iranian officials. Iran’s national security council officially confirmed the agreement, casting it as a victory in which the United States accepted Iran’s terms.

据三名伊朗官员称，在巴基斯坦的紧急外交斡旋以及关键盟友——中国在最后时刻介入下，伊朗接受了巴基斯坦的停火提议。伊朗国家安全委员会正式确认了该协议，并将其描述为一次胜利，称美国接受了伊朗的条件。

Earlier, as the day wore on, it was not clear whether an off-ramp would emerge from the talks. It was not even clear if there were talks.

此前，随着当天时间推移，谈判是否能找到缓解局势的出路并不明确。甚至连是否存在谈判都不清楚。

At one point, with Mr. Trump threatening devastating strikes on power plants, bridges and other critical infrastructure — a possible war crime under international law — Iran stopped engaging in the indirect negotiations.

特朗普一度威胁要对发电厂、桥梁及其他关键基础设施发动毁灭性打击——这在国际法下可能构成战争罪——伊朗停止了间接谈判。

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Mr. Trump warned earlier in the day, though he said he hoped “maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen.”

特朗普当天早些时候发出警告：“今晚，一个完整的文明将会消亡，且再也无法恢复。”不过他也表示，希望“也许会发生某种具有革命性、极其美妙的事情”。

In the hours before the 8 p.m. deadline, the United States and Israel stepped up their attacks on Iran. All the while, the Pakistanis were reported to be redoubling their efforts to get a cease-fire.

在美东时间晚上8点最后期限前的几个小时里，美国和以色列加大了对伊朗的攻击力度。与此同时，据报道，巴基斯坦方面正加倍努力促成停火。

In urging Mr. Trump to hold off, the country’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said on social media that diplomatic efforts were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results.” He also asked Iran to open the waterway for two weeks.

巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫在敦促特朗普暂缓行动的同时，他也在社交媒体上表示，外交努力“正在稳步、强劲、有力地推进，有望取得实质性成果”。他还要求伊朗开放该水道两周。

Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said in a social media post on Tuesday evening that diplomacy to stop the war had taken a “step forward” from a “critical, sensitive stage.”

伊朗驻巴基斯坦大使周二晚间在社交媒体上发帖称，为停止战争所进行的外交努力，已从“关键、敏感阶段”“向前迈进了一步”。

But as night fell in the Middle East, Iranians were bracing for the possibility of more strikes. Some formed human chains along bridges and around power plants across the country, videos and photographs posted by state and other local media showed. It’s unclear whether the demonstrations were spontaneous or planned by the government.

但随着夜幕降临中东，伊朗民众仍在为可能出现的更多打击做准备。官方媒体及其他当地媒体发布的视频和照片显示，一些人在全国各地的桥梁和发电厂周围组成人链。目前尚不清楚这些示威是自发的，还是由政府组织的。

Here’s what else we’re covering:

以下是我们正在关注的其他情况：

• Railways struck: The Israeli military said it had launched airstrikes on eight bridges across Iran, and warned Iranians not to ride railroads until 9 p.m. local time. Iranian state media reported that at least three people were killed when a railway bridge was hit in the central city of Kashan.

• 铁路遭袭：以色列军方表示，已对伊朗境内的八座桥梁发动空袭，并警告伊朗民众在当地时间晚上9点前不要乘坐铁路。伊朗官方媒体报道称，中部城市卡尚一座铁路桥遭袭，造成至少三人死亡。

• Condemnation of Trump’s threat: Some commentators on the right are splitting from Mr. Trump, while some Republican lawmakers have expressed concern that the threat could cause the president to lose public support. Democrats forcefully condemned Mr. Trump, with a growing number calling for him to be removed from office.

• 对特朗普威胁的谴责：一些右翼评论人士开始与特朗普保持距离，部分共和党议员也表示担忧，认为这一威胁可能导致总统失去公众支持。民主党方面则强烈谴责特朗普，且越来越多的人呼吁将其免职。

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,665 civilians, including 244 children, had been killed in Iran as of Monday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Monday said more than 1,500 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. In attacks blamed on Iran, at least 50 people have been killed in Gulf nations. In Israel, at least 20 people had been killed as of Monday. The American death toll stands at 13 service members, with hundreds of others wounded.

• 死亡人数：人权活动家通讯社称，截至周一，伊朗至少有1665名平民丧生，其中包括244名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部周一表示，在以色列与真主党最新一轮交火中，已有超过1500人死亡。在归咎于伊朗发动的袭击中，海湾国家至少有50人死亡。在以色列，截至周一已有至少20人死亡。美方已有13名军人死亡，另有数百人受伤。

It was a stunning threat that promised to eliminate Iranian civilization, delivered with all the casual callousness that has become President Trump’s preferred style of communication.

这是一种令人震惊的威胁，扬言要消灭伊朗文明，并以特朗普总统惯用的那种轻描淡写的冷酷无情语气发出。

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”

“今晚，整个文明将消亡，永不复返。”

And that is what passed as a normal Tuesday-morning update from the Trump White House: a warning of mass destruction and what international law would define as war crimes, blithely delivered on Truth Social, posted alongside ads for bullet-shaped pens, patriotic hats and a gala dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

这是特朗普白宫在一个普通的周二上午所做的日常更新：一则关于大规模毁灭的警告（按国际法可能被认定为战争罪），随意地发布在Truth Social平台上，而这些文字的旁边，就紧挨着子弹形状的钢笔、爱国主题的帽子和马阿拉歌庄园晚宴的营销广告。

“However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?” Mr. Trump wrote in his message. “We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.”

“不过，现在我们已经实现了彻底、完全的政权更迭，不同的、更聪明的、不那么激进的人占据上风，也许会发生某种具有革命性、极其美妙的事情，谁知道呢？”特朗普在帖子中写道。“我们今夜就会看到，这是漫长复杂的世界历史上最为重要的时刻。”

The message arrived two days after Mr. Trump marked Easter Sunday by calling on the Iranians to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote.

这条消息发出的两天前，特朗普在纪念复活节时呼吁伊朗结束对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。他写道：“把这他妈的海峡打开，你们这些疯狂的混蛋，否则你们会生活在地狱里——等着瞧吧！赞美真主。”

In the minds of the president and his supporters, the post is all part of Mr. Trump’s chaotic negotiation style, intended to prompt an end to his self-inflicted conflict and persuade Tehran to open the strait. Some of the president’s advisers saw Mr. Trump’s escalating rhetoric as a negotiating tactic that suggested he was more interested in finding a way out of the war than following through with a devastating attack.

在总统及其支持者看来，这条帖子不过是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在结束这场他自己引发的冲突，并促使德黑兰开放海峡。总统的一些顾问认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更有兴趣找到一条结束战争的出路，而非真的发动毁灭性打击。

On Tuesday evening, Mr. Trump had toggled back to diplomat mode, announcing that he had agreed to a proposal by Pakistan that calls for a two-week cease-fire and the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

而到了周二晚间，特朗普又切换回外交模式，宣布已同意巴基斯坦提出的方案，即实施为期两周的停火，并立即开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The president said that the United States would work on finalizing an agreement with Iran. “It is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution,” he wrote.

总统表示，美国将着手敲定一项与伊朗的协议。“为这一长期问题即将得到解决而深感荣幸，”他写道。

Even for Mr. Trump, who has a long history of comments that fly far beyond the pale, his latest comments bear the mark of an impulsive leader who is used to getting his way through coercion and unpredictability, but who is not getting his way now.

即便是对一向言论出格的特朗普来说，他最近这些表态也带有一种冲动型领导人的鲜明印记，这种领导者习惯于通过胁迫和不可预测性来达到目的，但眼下这些手段却失灵了。

周一，特朗普在白宫的一场媒体吹风会上。

Alex Wellerstein, a historian who studies nuclear conflicts, said that even if Mr. Trump does not carry out the extent of his threat, the president’s violent rhetoric damages his credibility as a negotiator and his country’s standing in the world.

研究核冲突的历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦表示，即便特朗普最终没有把威胁落实到他说的那个程度，他这种充满暴力意味的言论也损害了他作为谈判者的信誉以及美国在世界上的地位。

“You’re talking about a world that largely increasingly sees the United States as unhinged and dangerous, and not a reliable partner,” he said, “where all of the countries that typically align with democracy and freedom are on the other side of the United States.”

“你面对的是一个越来越将美国视为失控、危险、不可靠伙伴的世界，”他说，“那些通常与民主和自由站在一起的国家现在都站在美国的对立面。”

Some of Mr. Trump’s most fervent supporters have joined the usual chorus of critics in recent days. Tucker Carlson, the right-wing podcaster, said that the president’s Easter message had “shattered” the holiest day on the Christian calendar.

近几天，特朗普一些最狂热的支持者也加入了批评者的队伍。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森表示，总统在复活节当天发布的那条信息“毁掉了”基督教日历上最神圣的一天。

“It is vile on every level,” Mr. Carlson said on his podcast. “It begins with a promise to use the U.S. military, our military, to destroy civilian infrastructure in another country, which is to say to commit a war crime, a moral crime against the people of the country, whose welfare, by the way, was one of the reasons we supposedly went into this war in the first place.”

“这在各个层面上都令人不齿，”卡尔森在自己的播客中说，“它以扬言动用美国军队——我们的军队——去摧毁另一个国家的民用基础设施开头，也就是说，去犯下战争罪，去对那个国家的民众犯下道德罪行。而顺便提一句，那些人的福祉，本是我们当初宣称加入这场战争的原因之一。”

The president responded by calling Mr. Carlson a “low I.Q. person,” and continuing on with his war. Ever a reality television producer, Mr. Trump is trying to program this war like he does everything else — through cliffhangers and wait-and-see diplomacy. As such, Mr. Trump created an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline Tuesday for Tehran to comply. Mr. Trump announced “a double sided CEASEFIRE” about 90 minutes before his self-imposed deadline.

总统则回应称卡尔森是个“脑子不灵光的人”，并继续推进他的战争。作为一名曾经的真人秀制片人，特朗普正试图像操控其他一切事务那样来操控这场战争——靠制造悬念和“走着瞧”式外交。因此，特朗普把美国东部时间周二晚上8点设为德黑兰必须服从的最后期限。就在这个由他自己设定的最后期限前大约90分钟，特朗普宣布达成了“一项双边停火协议”。

周一，德黑兰在空袭中受损的建筑。

Americans have seen versions of this playbook before: Mr. Trump makes increasingly escalatory threats, secures some semblance of a deal and walks away declaring victory. In January, Mr. Trump threatened to send in U.S. forces to capture the Danish territory of Greenland. He settled for an agreement to increase the number of American troops there.

美国人以前就见识过这种套路：特朗普不断升级威胁，最终达成某种形式的协议，然后转身宣布取得了胜利。今年1月，特朗普威胁要派美军占领丹麦领地格陵兰岛。他最终满足于达成一项增加美国驻军人数的协议。

With Iran, though, there is still little evidence that Mr. Trump is going to ultimately get what he wants. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for the Iranian military, has said that Iran would retaliate “crushingly and extensively” if its civilian infrastructure were attacked.

但在伊朗问题上，目前几乎没有证据表明特朗普最终能得到他想要的东西。伊朗军方发言人易卜拉欣·佐尔法加里表示，如果民用基础设施遭到攻击，伊朗将进行“毁灭性的、大规模的”报复。

Even with a cease-fire, Mr. Trump is far from achieving his larger strategic objectives.

即便达成了停火，特朗普距离实现他的更大战略目标仍相去甚远。

The president’s increasingly violent messaging betrays a degree of frustration that he has not gotten what he wanted after pushing back an earlier deadline to barrage the country’s infrastructure. His threats to level power plants and oil installations and bridges have seemed to have the opposite effect on some Iranians, who have formed human chains around points of infrastructure that support civilian life.

总统越来越暴力的言论暴露出某种程度的挫败感——在推翻了此前对伊朗基础设施进行打击的最后期限之后，他并没有得到自己想要的东西。他发出的摧毁发电厂、石油设施和桥梁的威胁，似乎在一些伊朗民众身上产生了相反的效果——他们在支撑民生的基础设施周围组成了人链。

Even some people who have supported Mr. Trump in the past see his strategy on Iran, to the extent that there is one, as damaging and dangerous.

甚至一些过去支持特朗普的人也认为，他在伊朗问题上的策略——如果说存在策略的话——是有害且危险的。

“Trump believes he is threatening Iran with destruction, but it is America that now stands in danger,” Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center who resigned in March, wrote on X. “If he attempts to eradicate Iranian civilization, the United States will no longer be viewed as a stabilizing force in the world, but as an agent of chaos — effectively ending our status as the world’s greatest superpower.”

“特朗普认为他是在用毁灭来威胁伊朗，但现在处于危险之中的反而是美国，”3月份辞职的国家反恐中心前主任乔·肯特在X上写道。“如果他试图消灭伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界上的稳定力量，而是混乱的根源——这实际上将终结我们作为世界头号超级大国的地位。”

Several Republicans in Congress, who are absent from Washington during a two-week recess, criticized the president’s rhetoric, although many of them have stayed mum.

在为期两周的休会期间离开华盛顿的多名国会共和党人批评了总统的言论，不过其中许多人仍保持沉默。

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a close ally of Mr. Trump’s, left room for the possibility that Mr. Trump was posturing: “I hope and pray that President Trump is just using this as bluster.”

威斯康星州参议员、特朗普的亲密盟友罗恩·约翰逊为特朗普是在虚张声势的可能性留出了空间：“我希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是把这当作恫吓。”

Mr. Trump’s message also alarmed top Democrats, who quickly promised to force another vote on a resolution to rein in the use of the military in Iran.

特朗普的言论也让民主党高层感到震惊，他们迅速表态，将推动再次就一项限制对伊朗动用军事力量的决议进行投票。

“This is an extremely sick person,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, wrote on X after Mr. Trump sent his threat. “Each Republican who refuses to join us in voting against this wanton war of choice owns every consequence of whatever the hell this is.”

“这是一个极其病态的人，”纽约州参议员、少数党领袖查克·舒默在特朗普发出威胁后于X平台上写道，“每一个拒绝与我们一起投票反对这场肆意妄为的选择性战争的共和党人，都要对这桩荒唐之举引发的一切后果承担责任。”

Other Democrats have called to remove Mr. Trump from office over his threats, with some calling for impeachment and others pointing to the 25th Amendment, which provides a process for a president to be stripped of power if he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

其他一些民主党人则呼吁因这些威胁将特朗普罢免，一些人主张弹劾，另一些人则援引第25修正案——该修正案规定，如果总统“无法履行其职权和职责”，可启动程序剥夺其权力。

They were joined by Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former Republican representative who has shifted from being one of Trump’s staunchest allies to being one of his most vocal detractors.

他们的呼声还得到了玛乔丽·泰勒·格林的呼应。这位前共和党众议员已从特朗普最坚定的盟友之一，转变为最直言不讳的批评者之一。

“25TH AMENDMENT!!!” she wrote on X. “Not a single bomb has dropped on America. We cannot kill an entire civilization. This is evil and madness.”

“第25修正案！！！”她在X平台上写道。“美国没有挨过一颗炸弹。我们不能消灭一整个文明。这是邪恶，也是疯狂。”

In the two and a half weeks before the United States began a major military campaign against Iran, a small circle of advisers gathered in the White House Situation Room for a series of pivotal meetings. Previously undisclosed details of that period drawn from reporting for a forthcoming book, “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump,” show how President Trump’s alignment with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and a lack of sustained opposition from all but one member of the president’s inner circle put the United States on a course to war.

在美国对伊朗发动大规模军事行动的两个半星期前，一小群顾问聚集在白宫战情室，参加了一系列关键会议。根据即将出版的新书《政权更迭：唐纳德·特朗普的帝王总统任期内幕》中一些此前未披露的细节可以看出：特朗普总统与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的立场高度一致，而总统核心圈子里除了一个人之外，几乎没有人持续反对，从而将美国推上了战争轨道。

Here are six takeaways from that reporting.

以下是该报道的六点主要内容。

Netanyahu made a detailed pitch for war to Trump and his team in the Situation Room.

内塔尼亚胡在战情室向特朗普及其团队详细提出了开战建议。

Sitting across from Mr. Trump in the Situation Room — a venue rarely used for in-person sessions with foreign leaders — Mr. Netanyahu made an hourlong presentation to the president and his top aides on Feb. 11. He argued that Iran was ripe for regime change and that a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign could bring down the Islamic Republic. At one point, he played a video that included a montage of figures who could lead Iran if the theocratic government fell. Among them was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah.

2月11日，内塔尼亚胡坐在特朗普对面——战情室极少用于与外国领导人的面对面会谈——向总统及其高级助手做了长达一小时的陈述。他认为伊朗已经具备政权更迭的条件，美以联合军事行动能够推翻伊斯兰共和国。在陈述中，他播放了一段视频，其中包括一系列如果神权政府倒台后可能领导伊朗的人物，流亡中的伊朗末代沙王之子礼萨·巴列维就在其列。

2月11日，在白宫等候内塔尼亚胡到来的记者。

The Israeli leader and his advisers laid out what they portrayed as near-certain victory: Iran’s missile program destroyed in weeks, the Strait of Hormuz kept open and minimal retaliation against American interests. Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, could help foment an uprising inside Iran to finish the job.

以色列领导人和他的顾问们描绘了一幅近乎必然胜利的图景：伊朗的导弹计划将在几周内被摧毁，霍尔木兹海峡保持开放，对美国利益的报复微乎其微。以色列情报机构摩萨德可以帮助在伊朗境内煽动起义，完成最后一击。

Mr. Trump’s response was swift and appeared approving to most in the room. Sounds good to me, he told the prime minister.

特朗普的回应迅速而明确，在房间里大多数人听来是赞成的。他对总理说：“我听着不错。”

U.S. intelligence officials called Netanyahu’s regime-change scenarios “farcical.”

美国情报官员称内塔尼亚胡的政权更迭方案“荒谬”。

U.S. analysts scrambled overnight to assess what Mr. Netanyahu had presented. Their conclusions, delivered the next day in another Situation Room meeting, were blunt.

美国分析人员连夜加班评估内塔尼亚胡提出的内容。第二天，他们在另一次战情室会议上给出了直率的结论。

The first two objectives laid out in the Israeli pitch — killing the ayatollah and crippling Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors — were achievable, U.S. intelligence officials concluded. The second two goals presented by Mr. Netanyahu and his team — a popular uprising inside Iran and the replacement of the Islamic government by a new secular leader — were not. The C.I.A. director, John Ratcliffe, used a single word to describe the regime-change scenarios: “farcical.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio translated, “In other words, it’s bullshit.”

美国情报官员认为，以色列方案中提出的前两个目标——杀死最高领袖并削弱伊朗威胁邻国的能力——是可以实现的。但内塔尼亚胡及其团队提出的后两个目标——在伊朗境内引发民众起义，并用新的世俗领导人取代伊斯兰政府——则无法实现。中情局局长约翰·拉特克利夫用一个词来形容这些政权更迭方案：“荒谬”。国务卿马可·鲁比奥对这个词做了一番翻译：“换句话说，就是胡扯。”

Mr. Trump absorbed the assessment — and moved past it. Regime change, he said, would be “their problem.” His interest in killing Iran’s top leaders and dismantling its military remained undimmed.

特朗普听取了这一评估——然后就把它抛在了脑后。他说，政权更迭“是他们的问题”。他消灭伊朗最高领导人、瓦解其军事力量的兴趣丝毫没有减弱。

Vice President JD Vance was the strongest opponent of the war — and the only one to make a forceful case against it.

副总统JD·万斯是这场战争最强烈的反对者——也是唯一一个提出有力反对意见的人。

Of everyone in Mr. Trump’s inner circle, Mr. Vance did the most to try to stop the march toward war. He had built his political career opposing precisely this kind of military adventurism, and he told colleagues that a regime-change war with Iran would be a disaster.

在特朗普的核心圈子里，万斯是为阻止战争做得最多的人。他的政治生涯正是建立在反对此类军事冒险的基础之上，他告诉同事，对伊朗发动政权更迭战争将是一场灾难。

副总统JD·万斯（左）与丹·凯恩在特朗普的国情咨文演讲开始前。副总统是特朗普核心圈子里唯一一位强烈反对发动战争的人。

In front of the president and his other advisers, Mr. Vance warned that the conflict could cause regional chaos and untold casualties, break apart the president’s political coalition, and be seen as a betrayal by voters who had supported the promise of no new wars. He stressed the depletion of U.S. munitions and the risk of outsized and unpredictable retaliation given that the regime’s survival was at stake. He also warned about the Strait of Hormuz and the likelihood of soaring gasoline prices.

在总统和其他顾问面前，万斯警告说，这场冲突可能导致地区混乱和大量伤亡，撕裂总统的政治联盟，并被那些支持“不打新战争”承诺的选民视为背叛。他强调了美国弹药储备的消耗，以及由于关乎政权存废，伊朗可能进行超大规模且不可预测的报复。他还警告了霍尔木兹海峡的问题，以及汽油价格可能暴涨的可能性。

His preference was for no strikes at all. But knowing Mr. Trump was likely to act, Mr. Vance tried to steer him toward more limited options. When that failed, he argued for overwhelming force to end things quickly. At the final meeting on Feb. 26, his message to the president was blunt: You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I’ll support you.

他原本倾向于完全不进行打击。但知道特朗普很可能采取行动后，万斯试图引导他选择更有限的选项。当这也失败后，他主张使用压倒性武力迅速结束战争。在2月26日的最后一次会议上，他对总统的表态很直白：“你知道我认为这是个坏主意，但如果你决定要做，我会支持你。”

Some Trump advisers had serious private concerns but deferred to the president.

一些特朗普顾问私下有严重担忧，但最终还是服从了总统。

The positions in the inner circle fell along a spectrum, but with one thing in common: Nobody other than Mr. Vance mounted a forceful argument to change Mr. Trump’s mind.

核心圈子里的立场各有不同，但有一个共同点：除了万斯，没有人采取过有力措施试图改变特朗普的决定。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the most enthusiastic. We’re going to have to take care of the Iranians eventually, so we might as well do it now, he told the group on Feb. 26, the day before Mr. Trump gave his final order. Mr. Rubio was more ambivalent — his preference was for continued maximum pressure rather than full-scale war — but he did not try to talk the president out of it. Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, worried about the United States being dragged into a conflict in the Middle East on the eve of midterm elections but did not see it as her role to share her concerns about a military decision in a large group setting with the president.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯是最积极的支持者。2月26日，也就是特朗普下达最终命令的前一天，他对团队说：“我们迟早得收拾伊朗人，不如现在就动手。”国务卿鲁比奥则更为矛盾——他更倾向于继续“最大限度施压”，而非全面战争，但他并没有试图说服总统放弃。白宫幕僚长苏西·威尔斯担心美国在中东卷入冲突会影响中期选举，但她认为自己不应该在大型会议上向总统表达对军事决定的担忧。

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had serious concerns about the war and persistently flagged risks: weapons depletion, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the difficulty of predicting Iran’s response. But he was so careful not to take a stand, repeating that it was not his role to tell the president what to do, that he could appear to some to argue all sides simultaneously. Mr. Trump, in turn, would often seem to hear only what he wanted to hear.

参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将对这场战争有严重顾虑，并持续指出各种风险：武器消耗、霍尔木兹海峡可能关闭、难以预测伊朗的反应。但他极为谨慎，从不明确表态，一直强调“告诉总统该做什么不是我的职责”，以至于在一些人看来他似乎同时在支持所有观点。特朗普则往往只听得进自己想听的内容。

Trump believed it would be a quick war, like in Venezuela.

特朗普相信这将是一场速战速决的战争，就像在委内瑞拉那样。

The president’s confidence that a conflict with Iran would be brief and decisive was deep-rooted and largely impervious to contrary evidence. He had been emboldened by Iran’s muted response to his bombing of its nuclear facilities in June and by the spectacular commando raid that had captured the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from his compound on Jan. 3, in which no American lives were lost.

总统坚信会和伊朗进行一场短暂而决定性的冲突，这种信心根深蒂固，且几乎不受反面证据影响。伊朗对6月美国轰炸其核设施一事没有激烈的反应，加上1月3日美军特战行动成功从官邸抓获委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗且无一名美国人丧生，进一步增强了他的信心。

今年1月，委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗被押送下直升机，前往曼哈顿的联邦法院。特朗普因那次惊天动地的突击行动成功抓获马杜罗而感到备受鼓舞。

When advisers raised the possibility that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz — a choke point for vast quantities of global oil and gas — Mr. Trump dismissed the possibility, assuming the regime would capitulate before it came to that. When told the campaign would significantly deplete American weapons stockpiles, including missile interceptors already strained by years of support for Ukraine and Israel, Mr. Trump appeared to weigh the warning against a more appealing data point: The United States had an essentially unlimited supply of cheap, precision-guided bombs.

当顾问们提出伊朗可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这一全球大量石油和天然气运输的咽喉要道——的可能性时，特朗普表达了不屑，认为伊朗政权会在事态发展到那一步之前就屈服。当被告知这场行动将大幅消耗美国武器库存，包括因长期支持乌克兰和以色列而已经捉襟见肘的导弹拦截系统时，特朗普似乎把这一警告与一个更吸引他的数据点进行了权衡：美国拥有几乎取之不竭的廉价精确制导炸弹。

When the anti-interventionist commentator Tucker Carlson privately asked Mr. Trump how he could be so sure everything would be OK, the president replied, “Because it always is.”

当反干预主义评论人士塔克·卡尔森私下问特朗普为何如此确信一切都会顺利时，总统回答：“因为一直都是这样。”

For Trump, it was a gut-driven decision enabled by an echo chamber that did not exist in his first term.

对特朗普来说，这是一个直觉驱使下的决定，而他身边已形成了一个在他第一任期并不存在的回音室。

Mr. Trump’s decision to take the country to war was not driven by intelligence assessments or a strategic consensus among his advisers, which did not exist. It was driven by instinct — the same instinct his team had watched produce improbable results again and again.

特朗普决定让国家走向战争并非基于情报评估或顾问团队的战略共识——这样的共识并不存在。它是由直觉驱动的——他的团队一次又一次见证这种直觉带来了原本不可想象的结果。

Unlike his first-term team, many of whom regarded him as a danger to be managed or obstructed, Mr. Trump in his second term is surrounded by advisers who view him as a great man of history. After his improbable comeback in 2024, after indictments and assassination attempts, and after ordering the flawless operation that captured Mr. Maduro in Venezuela, the people around Mr. Trump had developed an almost superstitious faith in his destiny and instincts, and in his power to will new realities into existence. In making this high-stakes and high-risk decision, almost everyone deferred to the president’s gut.

与第一任期团队不同，当时许多人认为他是个需要被管控或阻挠的危险人物，特朗普在第二任期身边围绕的顾问们视他为历史伟人。在2024年不可思议的东山再起之后，在经历多次起诉和暗杀未遂之后，在下令成功实施抓捕马杜罗的完美行动之后，特朗普身边的人对他命运、直觉以及他让现实屈服于自己意志的能力产生了近乎迷信的信仰。在这个高风险、高赌注的决定中，几乎所有人都服从了总统的直觉。

Surrounded by people trying to execute on Mr. Trump’s desires, and with so much having gone his way to that point, almost nothing stood between the instinct and the act.

身边都是努力执行特朗普意愿的人，而此前一切又都如此顺遂，几乎没有任何东西能阻挡他的直觉转化为行动。

特朗普在2月28日对伊朗发起军事行动后，于3月1日返回白宫。