What is SpudCell?

什么是SpudCell？

SpudCell is a synthetic cell made by scientists at the University of Minnesota. It was created in a lab from lifeless chemicals but can perform most of the same functions as living cells. It eats, grows and reproduces, passing along its genetic material to future generations.

SpudCell是由明尼苏达大学的科学家创造的一种人工合成细胞。它是在实验室中用无生命的化学物质制成的，但可以执行活细胞的大部分功能。它能进食、生长和繁殖，并将其遗传物质传递给后代。

Although it’s not the first synthetic cell ever created, SpudCell is the first to complete a full life cycle — from birth to division into next-generation cells — after having been created from the “bottom up” using laboratory chemicals. It’s a pared down version of a living cell structure, revealing the basic genetic and structural components necessary for the functions of life.

尽管不是有史以来第一个合成细胞，但SpudCell是首个食用实验室化学物质“自下而上“构建而成，并完成从诞生到分裂成下一代细胞的完整生命周期的合成细胞。它是活细胞结构的一个精简版本，揭示了生命功能所必需的基本遗传和结构组成部分。

So, is it alive?

那么，它是活的吗？

No. Or maybe! The researchers behind SpudCell do not claim to have created life, though they note that there is “no single agreed definition” of life and that their cell-like system acts similarly to living cells.

不是。或者说也许是！SpudCell背后的研究人员并未声称创造了生命，尽管他们指出生命“没有单一公认的定义”，并且他们这种类细胞系统运作方式与活细胞相似。

“SpudCell performs the behaviors often used to tell the living from the inert — it feeds, grows, replicates its genome, divides and undergoes selection — yet it is far simpler than any natural cell and was assembled, part by part, by hand,” the project researchers wrote in a statement.

该项目的研究人员在一份声明中写道：“SpudCell表现出了通常用于区分生物与非生物的行为——它能进食、生长、复制其基因组、分裂并进行选择——然而它比任何天然细胞都要简单得多，并且是手工一步步组装而成的。”

Unlike most natural cells, SpudCell is not self-sufficient. Because it can’t build its own ribosomes — the parts of the cell responsible for building new proteins — scientists have to feed it crucial proteins and enzymes, and each lineage lasts only five to 10 generations.

与大多数天然细胞不同，SpudCell无法自给自足。由于无法构建自己的核糖体（细胞中负责构建新蛋白质的部分），科学家必须喂给它们关键的蛋白质和酶，而且每个谱系只能维持5到10代。

SpudCell’s genome is also smaller than most living cells. It contains just 90,000 base pairs, compared with humans’ 3 billion, and this genetic information is split across seven DNA molecules, instead of being consolidated into one. This fragmentation means that important genetic material isn’t always passed in full to the next generation.

SpudCell的基因组也比大多数活细胞要小。它仅包含9万个碱基对，而人类有30亿个，并且这些遗传信息被分散在七个DNA分子中，而不是整合为一个。这种碎片化意味着重要的遗传物质并不总能完整地传递给下一代。

Why are scientists doing this?

科学家为什么要这样做？

Even though SpudCell is a new development, it builds on decades of work on what scientists call “minimal cells.” These are synthetic cells that contain only the most basic genetic and structural architecture needed to perform the functions of life.

尽管SpudCell是一项新进展，但它是建立在科学家对所谓“最小细胞”的数十年研究基础之上的。这些是仅包含执行生命功能所需的最基本遗传和结构体系的人造细胞。

Synthetic cells help researchers fully understand the essential functions of a living cell — what is and isn’t needed for life.

人造细胞有助于研究人员充分了解活细胞的核心功能——即生命需要什么，不需要什么。

Advances in understanding the connections and mechanisms of life could, in turn, aid medical research, space exploration and many other areas of study.

深入了解生命的联系与机制反过来又可以助力医学研究、太空探索以及许多其他研究领域。

Are there other synthetic, yet lifelike, cells?

还有其他具有生命特征的人造细胞吗？

For over a century, scientists have been trying to mimic the processes of life — from attempts to create inner parts of cells in the lab for medical research to attempts at creating full cells.

一个多世纪以来，科学家一直试图模拟生命的过程——从在实验室中尝试制造细胞内部部件以进行医学研究，到尝试创造完整的细胞。

The world’s first artificial “cell” was created in 1957 by Thomas Ming Swi Chang, a Canadian physicist and inventor. While this first attempt didn’t work like biological cells do, it paved the way for medical advances that relied on biological materials being transported within the body — such as in the treatment of organ failure and drug poisoning.

世界上第一个人工“细胞”是由加拿大物理学家、发明家张明瑞(Thomas Ming Swi Chang)于1957年创造的。虽然这一初次尝试无法像生物细胞那样运作，但它为依赖在体内运输生物材料的医学进步铺平了道路——例如在治疗器官衰竭和药物中毒方面。

Since then, the field of synthetic biology has flourished. In 2010, researchers at the J. Craig Venter Institute, which has facilities in California and Maryland, created “minimal cells” — made from stripped down natural cells — that had a synthetic genome and could divide on their own. Now, SpudCell demonstrates a new path forward in synthetic biology.

自那时起，合成生物学领域便蓬勃发展。2010年，在加利福尼亚州和马里兰州设有机构的J·克雷格·文特尔研究所的研究人员创造了“最小细胞”——由精简的天然细胞制成——它们拥有合成基因组并且可以自行分裂。如今，SpudCell展示了合成生物学向前发展的一条新路径。

“Kate Adamala’s team designed and built a nonliving synthetic cell that is much closer to being ‘alive’ than anything else produced by the bottom-up synthetic cell field,” said John Glass, who leads synthetic cell research at the J. Craig Venter Institute.

J·克雷格·文特尔研究所人造细胞研究负责人约翰·格拉斯表示：“凯特·阿达马拉的团队设计并构建了一个无生命的人造细胞，它比自下而上的人造细胞领域生产的其他任何东西都更接近‘活’的状态。”

What’s next for SpudCell?

SpudCell的下一步计划是什么？

It is a major advance, but researchers behind the SpudCell effort say there is still work to be done.

这是一个重大的进展，但SpudCell项目背后的研究人员表示，仍有很多工作要做。

Next, researchers hope to create genetic instructions for building ribosomes so that future versions of SpudCell will not have to borrow ribosomes from living cells — which limits SpudCell’s reproduction ability to just five to 10 generations.

接下来，研究人员希望创造出构建核糖体的遗传指令，这样未来版本的SpudCell就不必从活细胞中借用核糖体——这会将SpudCell的繁殖能力限制在5到10代。

The researchers also hope to bring its function closer to natural cells by improving its ability to pass full genetic information to future generations and by reducing its dependence on the enzyme-rich “food” provided by researchers.

研究人员还希望通过提高其向后代传递完整遗传信息的能力，并减少其对研究人员提供的富含酶的“食物”的依赖，使其功能更接近天然细胞。

Are there risks?

存在风险吗？

This new way of creating synthetic cells brings age-old concerns about the ethics and security of lifelike creations. Biosecurity experts suggest that SpudCell and similar artificial cell projects do not pose any immediate threats.

这种创建人造细胞的新方法带来了关于具有生命特征的创造物的伦理和安全的古老担忧。生物安全专家表示，SpudCell及类似的人工细胞项目不会构成任何迫在眉睫的威胁。

“The current SpudCell is an exciting proof-of-principle, but before it can be used for good or for bad, it will require significantly more work,” said Becky Mackelprang, director of security programs at the Engineering Biology Research Consortium.

工程生物学研究联盟安全项目主任贝基·麦克尔普兰表示：“目前的SpudCell是一个令人振奋的概念验证，但要想付诸应用——无论是用在正途还是邪道，还需要做大量的工作。”

The front line of America’s scramble for critical minerals lies miles beneath the surface in the cavernous tunnels of Sangdong, South Korea, where miners blast glittering seams of tungsten from craggy rock.

美国争夺关键矿产的前线位于韩国上东地下的巨大坑道内，那里的矿工们从嶙峋岩石中炸出闪闪发光的钨矿脉。

With the highest melting point of any metal and a hardness close to that of a diamond, tungsten is essential to manufacturing semiconductors, construction and oil-drilling equipment, and the missiles and armored vehicles used in modern warfare.

钨是所有金属中熔点最高、硬度接近钻石的金属，对于制造半导体、建筑和石油钻探设备以及现代战争中使用的导弹和装甲车辆至关重要。

Like many minerals critical to the technologies the world depends on, tungsten is overwhelmingly controlled by China, which produces roughly 85 percent of the global supply. The consequences of that dominance became clear last year when Beijing imposed strict export controls, leading to shortages and sending prices soaring as military demand surged.

与全球赖以生存的技术所必需的许多矿产一样，钨绝大多数由中国控制，中国产出了全球约85%的供应量。这种主导地位的后果在去年变得清晰起来，当时北京实施了严格的出口管制，导致供应短缺，并随着军事需求的激增推动价格飙升。

At the same time, China has sought to tighten its grip on the market, acquiring the mining rights to the world’s largest open-pit tungsten mine in Kazakhstan. And Chinese buyers are scouring the globe for scrap tungsten.

与此同时，中国寻求巩固其市场控制，获得了哈萨克斯坦的全球最大露天钨矿的开采权。中国的买家还在全球范围内搜寻废钨。

上东矿山的加工厂。

“What China is trying to do is not just dominate one piece of the supply chain,” said Chris Berry, an independent metals analyst based in Washington. “They want to dominate the entire tungsten supply chain.”

驻华盛顿的独立金属分析师克里斯·贝里表示：“中国试图做的不单单是主导供应链中的某一个环节。他们想要主导整个钨供应链。”

Mr. Berry said China was interested in controlling the mining and import of the raw material as well as the production and export of high-value tungsten materials.

贝里表示，中国感兴趣的不只是控制原材料的开采和进口，还有高价值钨材料的生产和出口。

In an effort to catch up, the U.S. government has joined the global race for tungsten. Late last year, the White House helped an American company secure a mining deal with Kazakhstan to develop a large deposit there, hundreds of miles from the Chinese-owned mine. The Defense Department, meanwhile, is preparing to enforce a ban next year prohibiting contractors from using Chinese tungsten and has been searching for suppliers to help stockpile the mineral.

为了迎头赶上，美国政府加入了这场全球钨资源的争夺。去年年底，白宫协助一家美国公司与哈萨克斯坦达成了一项采矿协议，以开发当地的一处大型矿床，该矿床距离中资拥有的那座矿山数百英里。与此同时，国防部正准备在明年执行一项禁令，禁止承包商使用中国钨，并一直在寻找供应商以便增加该矿产的战略储备。

That is why all eyes are now on this mine in South Korea’s mountainous eastern region, operated by Almonty Industries, a Montana-based company whose recent initial public offering raised $770 million. Already in production, the tungsten mine is widely viewed as the one best positioned, as Mr. Berry said, “to put a dent in China’s dominance of the supply chain.”

这就是为什么所有的目光现在都聚焦在韩国东部山区这座由阿尔蒙蒂工业公司运营的矿山上，这家总部位于蒙大拿州的公司最近通过首次公开募股筹集了7.7亿美元。正如贝里所说，这座已经投产的钨矿被广泛视为最有可能“打破中国在供应链中主导地位”的矿山。

矿工们聚集在被称为阿方索的坑道入口前，这里是两条采矿主干道之一。一张显示上东庞大矿道网络的地图，其运营商阿尔蒙蒂工业公司估计这些矿道需要45年才能开采完毕。

About 58 million tons of tungsten lies within galleries stretching more than two miles underground. Lewis Black, Almonty’s chief executive, estimates that it will take 45 years to mine the deposit, with the potential of supplying roughly 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. Last year, Almonty also secured the mining rights to another tungsten deposit in Montana.

约5800万吨的钨深藏在延伸至地下超过三公里的坑道内。阿尔蒙蒂公司首席执行官刘易斯·布莱克估计，开采该矿床将需要45年时间，可能可以满足中国以外全球钨需求的约40%。去年，阿尔蒙蒂公司还获得了蒙大拿州另一处钨矿床的开采权。

There is already a flurry of activity at the South Korean site. First comes the blast of dynamite. Then gray boulders of ore are loaded onto dump trucks that wind their way back to the surface. There, the rock is broken down until it becomes the fine powder manufacturers are now scrambling to procure.

韩国的这个矿区现在已经是一片繁忙景象。首先是炸药的轰鸣声，随后成堆的灰色矿石被装上倾卸卡车，蜿蜒驶回地表。在那里，岩石被粉碎，直到变成制造商们现在正争相采购的细粉。

The competition for tungsten now extends far beyond mines and refineries.

针对钨资源的竞争现在早已远远超出了矿山和精炼厂的范畴。

Nick Stevens, the owner of JC Metals, a scrap recycler in New Jersey, said he received a call from Chinese buyers in April offering to pay nearly 30 percent above market prices for all the scrap tungsten he had on hand.

新泽西州废旧金属回收商JC金属公司的所有者尼克·史蒂文斯表示，他在4月接到了中国买家的电话，对方表示愿意出高出市场价近30%的价格，收购他手上所有的废钨。

一名工人正用紫外线灯照射炸开的洞穴岩壁，以辨别钨矿石。在紫外线灯的照射下，钨矿石会发出蓝光，这种现象被称为荧光反应。

Their message, he recalled, was: “Whatever you have, I’ll take it.”

他回忆道，对方传达的信息是：“不管你有什么，我全都要。”

Mr. Stevens said he had refused to sell because he believed in strengthening the U.S. tungsten supply chain. But some of his peers, he said, have since taken advantage of the higher prices and sold to Chinese companies.

史蒂文斯表示，他拒绝了出售，因为他坚信应当加强美国的钨供应链。但他表示，他的一些同行此后抓住了这一更高价格的机会，将废钨卖给了中国公司。

For all the talk of reducing dependence on China, the world’s tungsten supply chains remain deeply entangled.

尽管人们一直在谈论减少对中国的依赖，但全球的钨供应链依然深度交织。

Mr. Black illustrated the point during a recent interview by reaching for one of tungsten’s most consequential uses — a .50-caliber armor-piercing round made from the metal. Much of the tungsten used in the ammunition sent to Ukraine, he said, still originates from the very countries it is fighting against.

最近接受采访时，布莱克就提到了这一点。他拿起一颗由这种金属制成的.50口径穿甲弹——这是钨最重要的一项用途，他说，送往乌克兰的弹药中所使用的大部分钨依然源自其正在与之战斗的国家。

“That is the absurdity of the situation,” he said.

他说：“现实就是这么荒诞。”

在最近的一次探访中，工人们在仔细探测坑道的其中一面岩壁。矿工们正在操作深孔钻机，以探查旧的矿山坑道和积水区。

A Mine Reborn

矿山的重生

This is not the first time that the United States, suddenly cut off from Chinese tungsten and in desperate need of the material, has turned to the mine in Sangdong.

这不是美国第一次在突然被切断中国钨供应且迫切需要该材料时，将目光投向上东的这座矿山。

After North Korea invaded South Korea in 1950, Washington feared that war with the Soviet Union could be imminent and began stockpiling critical minerals. The United States had come to rely on cheap Chinese tungsten exports, but amid the Chinese civil war, Beijing halted shipments to countries outside the Communist bloc.

1950年朝鲜战争侵入韩国后，华盛顿担心与苏联的战争可能一触即发，开始囤积关键矿产。美国此前一直依赖廉价的中国钨出口，但在中国内战期间，北京停止了向共产主义阵营以外国家的发货。

The United States dispatched an American geologist to Sangdong to determine whether the mine could be a viable alternative, instructing him to deliver a survey report directly to Dean Acheson, the secretary of state, and Gen. Douglas MacArthur, according to Jaeyoung Ha, a postdoctoral fellow at Tsinghua University.

清华大学博士后研究员河载荣（音）表示，美国当时派遣了一名地质学家前往上东，以确定该矿山是否是一个可行的替代方案，并指示他直接向国务卿迪安·艾奇逊和道格拉斯·麦克阿瑟将军提交一份勘测报告。

1951年前往上东的美国地质学家。

The U.S. government signed an agreement with South Korea allowing Americans to manage the mine and buy its output. When the deal expired in 1954, after an armistice had ended the fighting in the Korean War, the mine was returned to South Korean control.

美国政府与韩国签署了一项协议，允许美国人管理该矿山并购买其产出。1954年，在停战协定结束了朝鲜战争的战斗后，该协议到期，矿山重新交还给韩国控制。

That push-and-pull of demand, shaped by global conflicts and the availability of cheap Chinese exports, has defined the tungsten market for decades.

数十年来，受全球冲突和中国廉价钨供应的影响，钨市场一直受到需求拉动的影响。

In the mine’s heyday, it accounted for 70 percent of South Korea’s economic output. But by the 1990s, a flood of cheap Chinese concentrates had again swamped the market, forcing several mines, including Sangdong, to close.

在其鼎盛时期，这座矿山曾占到韩国经济产出的70%。但到了1990年代，大量廉价的中国精矿再次席卷市场，迫使包括上东在内的数家矿山关闭。

When Mr. Ha saw tungsten prices start to spike after China imposed export restrictions, he thought reopening the mine would become “inevitable.”

当河载荣看到中国实施出口限制后钨价开始飙升时，他认为重新开放该矿山将“势在必行”。

“Chinese tungsten had been the main competitor with the Sangdong tungsten since its beginning,” he said.

他说：“自始至终，中国钨一直是上东钨的主要竞争对手。”

In the years after the mine closed, the nearby village steadily shrank. Storefronts along once busy streets were abandoned. Roofs caved in, doors were boarded up and mail carriers stuffed fliers into the letter boxes of stores with broken windows. As recently as 2023, Mr. Ha recalled, he saw signs posted by villagers urging companies to reopen the mine.

在矿山关闭后的几年里，附近的村庄不断萎缩。曾经热闹的街道两旁的店面被废弃。屋顶坍塌，大门被木板封死，邮递员把传单塞进窗户破损的店铺信箱里。河载荣回忆道，就在2023年，他还看到村民们张贴的标语，敦促企业重新开放矿山。

“I don’t want to see this town die” was the sentiment he heard, he said.

他感觉人们的心声是“我不希望看到这个小镇消亡”，他说。

一辆车正将钨矿石运出矿山。在加工厂内，经粉碎的钨矿石被送往研磨机，进一步研磨成更细的颗粒。

Inside the Mine

矿山内部

On a recent Tuesday, trucks carrying boulders of ore trundled up a hill at the mine and deposited the boulders onto heaping stockpiles.

在最近的一个周二，满载大块矿石的卡车驶上矿区的一座山丘，将矿石倾卸到堆积如山的矿石堆上。

Below ground, miners in steel-toe rubber boots and hard hats drilled through rock and toted away the remnants. Some were extracting and examining another heat-resistant metal found in the mine, molybdenum. Others were breaking through walls to reconnect older passages from the mine’s early days, which are now used to ventilate the underground network.

在地下，身穿钢头橡胶靴、头戴安全帽的矿工们正用钻机凿穿岩石并运走废料。一些人正在提取并检查在矿山中发现的另一种耐热金属——钼。另一些人则在凿穿石壁，以重新连接矿山早期的老矿道，这些通道现在被用于地下网络的通风。

In the darkness, tungsten ore glitters beneath an ultraviolet lamp, shimmering from gray slabs of rock that will eventually be blasted apart.

在黑暗中，紫外线灯照射下的钨矿石在灰色岩块中闪闪发光，这些岩块最终将被炸开。

Once extracted from the galleries, the ore is either added to stockpiles or sent directly for processing, a multistep process that grinds the rock into ever-smaller pieces.

矿石一旦从坑道中开采出来，要么被加入到矿石堆中，要么直接送去加工，那是一个将岩石研磨成越来越小碎块的多步骤过程。

A mountain of ore is held back by thick black metal chains until it is ready to be crushed into fist-size pieces or smaller. The pile is then released, tumbling down a ramp where the pieces are sifted and sorted by size.

一座矿石大山被粗重的黑色铁链挡住，直到它们准备好被粉碎成拳头大小或更小的碎块。随后，矿石堆被释放，顺着斜坡滚落，在那里按尺寸对矿石进行筛选和分类。

钨矿石堆场外的一辆卡车。这些矿石会根据每块岩石中钨的含量被分类堆放。

The rock is carried by a conveyor belt into a cavernous room filled with towering silver-and-yellow machinery, where it is milled into even finer particles. Finally, it is mixed with chemicals in large vats, allowing workers to separate the tungsten from other metals and sediments.

矿石被传送带输送到一个整齐摆放着高耸的银黄色机械的巨大房间里，在那里被研磨成更细的颗粒。最后，它们在巨大的桶槽中与化学品混合，使工人们能够将钨与其他金属和沉积物分离开来。

The final product is tungsten concentrate, a gray powder that is bagged and shipped to Almonty’s clients, chief among them a Pennsylvania company that makes “components across thousands of different products across hundreds of sectors,” Mr. Black said, including armor-piercing munitions.

布莱克表示，最终的产品是钨精矿——一种灰色的粉末，它们被装袋并运送给阿尔蒙蒂公司的客户，其中最主要的是一家宾夕法尼亚州的公司，该公司制造的“部件跨越数百个领域的数千种不同产品”，包括穿甲弹药。

“It takes years of investment, permitting and technical work to bring a mine into production,” he said. “You can’t race to the finish line in a democracy; you’ve got to walk.”

“一座矿山投入生产需要多年的投资、许可和技术工作，”他说。“在民主国家，你不能跑着去终点，你只能走着去。”

上东的繁荣长期以来与该矿山的效益紧密相连。多年来，当地居民一直期盼着能有公司将它重新投产。

Breweries sell craft kombucha on tap. Fruit vinegars and cultured chile pastes are featured on five-star restaurant menus. Walmart and Target stock kimchi and kefir.

精酿啤酒厂开始供应现打的自酿康普茶。水果醋和发酵辣椒酱出现在五星级餐厅的菜单上。沃尔玛和塔吉特超市也开始销售韩式泡菜和开菲尔。

Fermented foods have been popular in the United States for decades, but more recently, they have been thrust into the national spotlight.

几十年来，发酵食品在美国一直很受欢迎，但最近，它们更是被推至全国关注的焦点。

In January, the Trump administration released new dietary guidelines that recommended, for the first time, that Americans eat sauerkraut, kimchi, kefir and miso for better gut health. And Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. often promotes the benefits of sauerkraut and yogurt, saying that they helped him lose weight and sharpen his thinking.

今年1月，特朗普政府发布了新版膳食指南，首次建议美国人食用酸菜、韩式泡菜、开菲尔(Kefir)和味噌以改善肠道健康。卫生与公众服务部长小罗伯特·肯尼迪也常常宣传酸菜和酸奶的益处，声称它们帮助自己减重并让思维更加敏锐。

Humans have been fermenting foods for thousands of years. What does the science show now about how they may affect our health? We asked experts to explain.

人类食用发酵食品已有数千年历史。那么，关于它们对健康的影响，目前的科学是怎么说的？我们就此请教了相关专家。

What are fermented foods?

什么是发酵食品

They’re defined as any foods or drinks that have been transformed by microbes like yeast, bacteria and fungi in ways that preserve and infuse them with tangy, savory, fruity or funky flavors, said Robert Hutkins, an emeritus professor of food science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

内布拉斯加大学林肯分校食品科学荣休教授罗伯特·哈钦斯说，发酵食品是指经过酵母、细菌和真菌等微生物作用后发生转化的食品或饮料，这一过程不仅使食物得以保存，还会赋予它们酸爽、鲜香、果味或独特的发酵风味。

Milk can turn into yogurt and kefir; vegetables become sauerkraut and kimchi; fruit is transformed into vinegar and wine; wheat is fermented into sourdough and beer.

牛奶可以变成酸奶和开菲尔；蔬菜可以用来做酸菜和韩式泡菜；水果可以变成醋和葡萄酒；小麦则可以发酵成酸面包和啤酒。

Even chocolate and some coffee is fermented, said Maria Marco, a professor of food science at the University of California, Davis.

加州大学戴维斯分校食品科学教授玛丽亚·马尔科说，甚至巧克力和某些咖啡在生产过程中也经过发酵处理。

Are fermented foods good for us?

发酵食品对健康有益吗？

Research on their health effects is limited, Dr. Marco said. But some studies suggest that the foods (excluding alcohol) may offer a few benefits.

马尔科博士指出，关于发酵食品健康效应的研究目前仍较为有限。但一些研究显示，这类食品（不含酒精类）或许确实带来若干益处。

In a trial published in 2021, for instance, researchers split 36 healthy adults into two groups: one that ate a lot of fermented foods like yogurt, kimchi and kombucha and another that ate plenty of fiber-rich foods like legumes, whole grains, fruits and vegetables. After 10 weeks, those in the fermented food group had significantly lower levels of inflammatory markers in their blood — and more diverse gut microbes — than they did at the start of the study. (Both measures are associated with lower risks of chronic disease.) Those in the fiber group had no changes in those measures.

例如，在2021年发表的一项试验中，研究人员将36名健康成年人分为两组：一组大量食用酸奶、泡菜和康普茶等发酵食品，另一组大量食用豆类、全谷物、水果和蔬菜等高纤维食品。10周后，发酵食品组的血液炎症标志物水平显著低于研究开始时，并且肠道微生物多样性更高（这两项指标均与较低的慢性病风险相关）。高纤维组的这些指标没有变化。

Other research has found associations between fermented food consumption and less risk of eczema — as well as kimchi consumption and lower rates of obesity; yogurt consumption and reduced risks of Type 2 diabetes and weight gain; and sauerkraut consumption and fewer irritable bowel syndrome symptoms.

另有研究发现，发酵食品摄入与湿疹风险降低存在关联；韩式泡菜摄入与肥胖率降低相关；酸奶摄入与2型糖尿病及体重增加风险降低相关；酸菜摄入则与肠易激综合征症状减轻相关。

In one study of more than 46,000 U.S. adults published in 2023, researchers linked fermented food consumption to small reductions in blood pressure, body weight, waist size and blood insulin and triglyceride levels.

2023年发表的一项针对4.6万多名美国成年人的研究发现，食用发酵食品与血压、体重、腰围以及血液中的胰岛素和甘油三酯水平小幅下降存在关联。

The existing studies on the health benefits are promising, Dr. Hutkins said. But many are limited by their size, duration or observational nature (meaning they can’t prove cause and effect). More research is needed to see whether eating fermented foods can directly improve people’s health, he said.

哈钦斯博士表示，现有关于发酵食品益处的研究结果令人鼓舞。不过，但许多研究受到规模、持续时间或观察性本质（意味着无法证明因果关系）的限制。他说，还需要更多研究来确定食用发酵食品是否能够直接改善人体健康。

And not all research has been positive. Some studies have found higher rates of stomach and esophageal cancers in people in East Asia who ate a lot of kimchi and other fermented vegetables, said Suzanne Devkota, director of the Cedars-Sinai Human Microbiome Research Institute. The evidence for the cancer link is weak, though, she said, and many other factors could have influenced that result.

并非所有研究都得出了积极结论。西达赛奈人类微生物组研究所所长苏珊娜·德夫科塔表示，一些研究发现，在东亚地区，大量食用泡菜和其他发酵蔬菜的人群中，胃癌和食道癌的发生率较高。不过，她也指出，并没有强有力的证据能证明这种关联，而且还有许多其他因素可能影响了研究结果。

Why might fermented foods be good for us?

为什么发酵食品可能对我们有益？

Many fermented foods are healthful in their own right, Dr. Marco said. A serving of kimchi or sauerkraut counts as a serving of vegetables, for instance, and yogurt and kefir provide calcium, potassium and protein.

马尔科博士指出，许多发酵食品本身就具有营养价值。例如，一份韩式泡菜或酸菜可以算作一份蔬菜摄入量，酸奶和开菲尔则能提供钙、钾和蛋白质。

The microbes that ferment foods can also help with digestion and the absorption of nutrients, and even create nutrients of their own. The lactose in milk and the gluten in wheat, for example, are broken down during fermentation, making foods like yogurt, kefir and sourdough bread easier for those with lactose or gluten intolerances to digest. They also help the body absorb minerals like calcium, iron, magnesium and zinc, and create new vitamins (like folate, riboflavin, vitamin B12 and vitamin K) during the fermentation process.

发酵食物中的微生物还有助于消化和营养吸收，甚至能自行合成某些营养素。例如，牛奶中的乳糖和小麦中的麸质会在发酵过程中分解，这使得酸奶、开菲尔和酸面包等食物对乳糖不耐受或麸质不耐受人群而言更易消化。这些微生物还有助于人体吸收钙、铁、镁、锌等矿物质，并在发酵过程中产生叶酸、核黄素、维生素B12和维生素K等新的维生素。

But researchers are just beginning to probe other unique attributes of fermented foods that may influence our health.

不过，研究人员才刚刚开始探究发酵食品可能影响人体健康的其他独特属性。

There’s emerging evidence that some of the molecules microbes make during the fermentation process can reduce inflammation, regulate blood sugar and help us feel full, among other benefits, though those effects have mostly been demonstrated in studies on rodents and in petri dishes, said Dr. Sean Spencer, a gastroenterologist and microbiome scientist at Stanford.

有新的证据显示，微生物在发酵过程中产生的一些分子能够减少炎症、调节血糖，并帮助人们产生饱腹感等。不过，斯坦福大学胃肠病学家和微生物组科学家肖恩·斯宾塞表示，这些效果目前主要是在啮齿动物和培养皿实验中得到了证实。

Some researchers also hypothesize that exposure to the “friendly” microbes in some fermented foods can reduce inflammation by training the immune system to tolerate harmless microbes or potential allergens, yet be ready to mount a robust response to “bad” microbes in the future, Dr. Marco said.

马尔科博士还提到，有研究人员推测，某些发酵食品中的“友好”微生物能够训练免疫系统，使其耐受无害微生物或潜在过敏原，同时又能在未来面对“有害”微生物时做出强烈反应，从而减少炎症。

What’s the takeaway?

结论是什么？

We have enough evidence to support incorporating more fermented foods into your diet, Dr. Spencer said — such as having yogurt for breakfast, adding kimchi to eggs or sandwiches, or making salad dressings with apple cider vinegar.

斯宾塞博士表示，现有证据已足以支持在日常饮食中适当增加发酵食品的摄入——比如早餐吃酸奶、在鸡蛋或三明治中加入韩式泡菜，或用苹果醋调制沙拉酱。

People who are immunocompromised, however, should be cautious with fermented foods that contain live microbes, such as those labeled raw, unpasteurized or as containing live cultures (typically found in refrigerated sections). Such people may not be able to handle the “bacterial load” present in fermented foods, even if the bacteria are “friendly,” Dr. Devkota said.

不过，免疫功能低下的人应谨慎食用含有活性微生物的发酵食品，例如标注“生制”“未经巴氏杀菌”或“含活性菌种”的产品（通常陈列在冷藏区）。德夫科塔博士指出，即便这些细菌是“友好”的，这类人群也可能无法承受发酵食品中的“细菌负荷”。

Some fermented foods, including sauerkraut, cheese and wine, can also contain large amounts of histamines, natural molecules that may trigger symptoms like diarrhea, hives or headaches in those who are sensitive, Dr. Marco said. And people with high blood pressure should be mindful of fermented foods that are typically high in sodium, like sauerkraut, kimchi, miso and soy sauce, Dr. Hutkins said.

马尔科博士说，酸菜、奶酪和葡萄酒等发酵食品可能含有大量组胺——这是一种天然分子，可能会在敏感人群中引发腹泻、荨麻疹或头痛等症状。哈钦斯博士说，高血压患者应注意那些通常钠含量较高的发酵食品，如酸菜、韩式泡菜、味噌和酱油。

While beer, wine and other types of alcohol are technically fermented foods, it’s best to limit them, Dr. Marco said, given their established health risks.

马尔科博士说，虽然啤酒、葡萄酒和其他类型的酒精饮料在技术上属于发酵食品，但鉴于其已知的健康风险，最好限制摄入。

The year’s barely half over and already it’s been an unusual one for moviegoers. Gen Z filmmakers have scored megahits with their feature debuts (“Obsession,” “Backrooms”), expected megahits have done just OK (“The Mandalorian and Grogu”) and established hitmakers like Steven Spielberg have proved divisive.

今年才刚过去近一半，但对影迷来说，这已经是一个不同寻常的年份了。Z世代导演凭借长片处女作（《迷恋》、《后室》）斩获了极大的成功，备受期待的大片表现却只能算中规中矩（《曼达洛人与古古》），史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格这样成名已久的爆款制造者则引发了分歧。

I asked our chief film critic, Manohla Dargis, and our movie critic, Alissa Wilkinson, to recommend releases you might want to catch up with this summer.

我邀请了我们的首席影评人曼诺拉·达吉斯和电影评论员阿丽莎·威尔金森，推荐一些你可能想在今年夏天补看的影片。

‘Disclosure Day’

《揭秘日》(Disclosure Day)

In theaters.

院线上映中。

The story: In this Spielberg blockbuster, Josh O’Connor is an Edward Snowden-like figure who has stolen files with evidence of extraterrestrials. Emily Blunt is a weathercaster with the sudden ability to speak other languages, including one that aliens understand. The two team up when they find themselves on the run from the authorities who are desperate to prevent the truth from being revealed. Online, commenters have taken issue with some of the plot twists, but both of our critics wanted to include it in this list.

故事梗概：在这部斯皮尔伯格的大片中，乔什·奥康纳饰演了一个类似于爱德华·斯诺登的人物，他偷走了包含外星人存在证据的文件。艾米莉·布朗特则饰演一名气象播报员，突然获得了说其他语言的能力，其中包括一种外星人能听懂的语言。当两人发现自己正在躲避极力想阻止真相被揭露的官方追捕时，他们结成了同盟。在网络上，评论者们对其中的一些剧情反转提出了异议，但我们的两位影评人都坚持将它列入这份名单。

Manohla Dargis’s take: “Spielberg isn’t straining to wow you. He reached the summit a while ago, which gives you latitude to get in his groove and have a good time.” As for the performances, “O’Connor’s yielding softness works contrapuntally with Blunt’s crispness.” Read the review.

曼诺拉·达吉斯的评价：“斯皮尔伯格并没有刻意去惊艳你。他很久以前就登顶了，这让你有足够的余地融入他的节奏并享受一段美好时光。”至于演员的表现，“奥康纳展现出的柔和感与布朗特的利落感形成了奇妙的对位。”阅读完整影评。

‘The Christophers’

《克里斯托弗们》(The Christophers)

Rent it on most major platforms.

可在大部分主要平台上租借观看。

The story: The title refers to a series of paintings that made the artist Julian (Ian McKellen) famous. Now that he is in his twilight years, his children have a scheme involving Lori (Michaela Coel), an artist in her own right but one who can’t make a living from her work. They want her to sign on as Julian’s assistant and forge new paintings under his name. Steven Soderbergh directed.

故事梗概：片名指的是让艺术家朱利安（伊恩·麦克莱恩饰）一举成名的一系列画作。如今他已步入暮年，他的孩子们设计了一个计划，把洛里（米凯拉·科尔饰）卷了进来。洛里本身也是一位艺术家，但无法靠自己的作品维持生计。他们希望她作为朱利安的助手签约，并以他的名义伪造新的画作。本片由史蒂文·索德伯格执导。

Alissa Wilkinson’s take: This is “a sparkling, funny, wise movie about two painters, both of whom consider themselves failures.” The performances especially stand out: “I have rarely enjoyed watching two actors’ rapport the way I loved watching McKellen and Coel; it could have gone on forever and not been long enough.” Read the review.

阿丽莎·威尔金森的评价：这是一部“关于两位画家的灵动、幽默且富有智慧的电影，他们两人都认为自己是失败者”。演员们的对手戏尤为瞩目：“我极少像喜爱看麦克莱恩和科尔那样享受看两位演员之间的默契配合；一直就这么演下去都不会觉得冗长。”阅读完整影评。

‘Exit 8’

《八号出口》(Exit 8)

Rent it on most major platforms.

可在大多数主要平台上租借观看。

The story: A zoned-out commuter who wasn’t paying attention to his surroundings finds himself trapped in the labyrinthine halls of a Tokyo train station. The film, based on a video game, recalls movies as different as “The Shining” and “Groundhog Day.”

故事梗概：一个心不在焉、没有留意周围环境的通勤者发现自己被困在东京地铁迷宫般的走廊里。这部改编自电子游戏的电影让人联想到《闪灵》和《土拨鼠之日》等风格迥异的影片。

Dargis’s take: “‘Exit 8’ is a pip and as fun to watch as it is to mull over. Smoothly directed by Genki Kawamura, who shares script credit with Kentaro Hirase, it will be familiar to anyone who’s a fan of puzzles, has watched Christopher Nolan’s movies, read the myth of the Minotaur, knows something about cognitive behavioral therapy or has just watched a lot of genre movies.” Read the review.

达吉斯的评价：“《八号出口》非常出色，无论是观看还是回味都趣味无穷。影片由川村元气执导，他与平濑谦太郎共同署名编剧。任何喜爱解谜、看过克里斯托弗·诺兰电影、读过弥诺陶洛斯神话、对认知行为疗法有所了解或者只是看过大量类型片的观众都会对本片感到熟悉。”阅读完整影评。

‘28 Years Later: The Bone Temple’

《28年后：骨庙》(28 Years Later: The Bone Temple)

Stream it on Netflix; rent it on most major platforms.

可在网飞(Netflix)观看；也可在大多数主要平台上租借观看。

The story: The director Nia DaCosta picks up the saga that began in 2003 with “28 Days Later,” when a viral pandemic caused the breakdown of society. This installment focuses on two figures: Dr. Kelson (Ralph Fiennes), who thinks an infected man may be curable, and Jimmy Crystal (Jack O’Connell), an evil trickster figure inciting his followers to horrific violence.

故事梗概：导演妮亚·达科斯塔延续了自2003年《28天后》开启的萨迦传奇，当时一场病毒大流行导致了社会的崩溃。本集聚焦于两个人物：凯尔森博士（拉尔夫·费因斯饰），他认为一名感染者可能还有救；以及吉米·克里斯特尔（杰克·奥康奈尔饰），一个煽动其追随者进行恐怖暴力的邪恶骗子人物。

Wilkinson’s take: “DaCosta’s talents as a director are a terrific, confident match for this material,” and the film relies on “some good old-fashioned gore, plus a few scenes I can only describe as fully, pyrotechnically metal. (One in particular, and you’ll know it when you see it, provoked a near-standing ovation at my screening.) The actors are going full throttle, too.” Read the review.

威尔金森的评价：“达科斯塔作为导演的才华与这些素材形成了极佳且自信的契合，”并且影片依赖于“一些优秀的老派血腥场面，外加几场我只能形容为完全、极具视觉冲击力的硬核金属风格戏份（尤其是其中一场，你一看到就会心领神会，在我的那场放映中它引发了全场近乎起立鼓掌的轰动）。演员们同样在全力以赴。”阅读完整影评。

‘Yes’

《是的》(Yes)

Rent it on most major platforms.

可在大多数主要平台上租借观看。

The New York Times

The story: In this vicious satire of Israeli society from Nadav Lapid, the ambitious Y and his wife, Jasmine, are entertainers so eager to get ahead that they cozy up to the country’s power elite as war rages in Gaza.

故事梗概The story: Told in part from the point of view of 8-year-old Sasha, the film follows her family’s move from Hungary to Vancouver Island in the 1990s and her older half-brother Jeremy’s increasingly precarious behavior. This debut feature by Sophy Romvari blends her own history with fiction.

故事梗概：影片部分以8岁的萨沙的视角叙述，讲述了上世纪90年代她的家庭从匈牙利搬到温哥华岛的经历，以及她的同母异父哥哥杰里米日益危险的行为。这部由索菲·罗姆瓦里执导的长片处女作将她的个人经历与虚构融合在了一起。

Wilkinson’s take: “It can be tempting to tell stories about broken families and mental health struggles with a gloss of romantic fatalism, but there’s none of that here — just an aching desire to understand what Jeremy was experiencing” and why Sasha’s “parents made the choices they did.” Read the review.

威尔金森的评价：“在讲述关于破碎家庭和心理健康挣扎的故事时，人们往往容易给它刷上一层浪漫宿命论的光泽，但这里完全没有这些——有的只是渴望去理解杰里米当时所经历的一切，”以及萨沙的父母为何“做出那样的选择”。阅读完整影评。

‘Pompei: Below the Clouds’

《庞贝：云层之下》(Pompei: Below the Clouds)

Stream it on Mubi.

可在穆比(Mubi)观看。

The story: This documentary by Gianfranco Rosi focuses on the area around the Italian volcano Vesuvius. Though there is no narration, individual voices including those of an archaeologist and a prosecutor, help paint a picture of the region.

故事梗概：这部由吉安弗兰科·罗西执导的纪录片聚焦于意大利维苏威火山周边的地区。尽管全片没有旁白，但包括一名考古学家和一名检察官在内的个体声音勾勒出了该地区的画面。

Dargis’s take: Rosi “has an unerring compositional sense and his images are harmoniously balanced without being fetishistically precise. He shot the movie himself in exquisite black-and-white (he also did the sound work), a choice that summons up the past, yet, because his approach is dynamic, never tips into nostalgia.” Read the review.

达吉斯的评价：罗西“拥有敏锐的构图意识，他的画面和谐平衡，却不流于刻板的精准。他亲自用精致的黑白胶片拍摄了这部电影（他还负责了音效工作），这一选择唤起了过去，但因其充满动感的手法绝未陷入怀旧之中”。阅读完整影评。

‘Seeds’

《种子》(Seeds)

In theaters.

院线上映中。

The story: This black-and-white documentary focuses on the plight of Black farmers like Willie Head Jr. and Carlie Williams, who struggle to make a living. Though it explores issues like the slow rollout of a federal fund for them devised by the Biden administration, the film is really about a way of life and includes scenes of singing at church and time spent at home.

故事梗概：这部黑白纪录片聚焦于小威利·海德和卡利·威廉姆斯等黑人农民的困境，他们正艰难地维持生计。尽管影片探讨了由拜登政府设计、旨在向他们提供帮助的联邦基金落实缓慢等问题，但这部电影真正关注的是一种生活方式，包含了在教堂歌唱以及在家中度过时光的场景。

Wilkinson’s take: “Brittany Shyne’s extraordinarily beautiful” film isn’t journalistic. “It’s something more like a softly sung ballad, handed down from generation to generation. For men like Head and Williams, the struggle to keep land in the family and make a living is about preserving the past and creating the future.” Read the review.

威尔金森的评价：“布列塔尼·夏恩这部非同凡响、优美至极”的电影并非新闻纪实风格。“它更像是一首轻声传唱、代代相传的民谣。对于像海德和威廉姆斯这样的男人来说，守护家族土地并维持生计的挣扎，事关留存过去与创造未来。”阅读完整影评。

‘Miroirs No. 3’

《镜子三号》(Miroirs No. 3)

Rent on most major platforms.

可在大多数主要平台上租借观看。

The story: In the director Christian Petzold’s loose variation on “Vertigo,” a woman who has survived a deadly car crash in the German countryside convalesces at the home of a stranger, who begins to remake her in the image of another woman.

故事梗概：在导演克里斯蒂安·佩措尔德对《迷魂记》做出的松散改编中，一名在德国乡间的致命车祸中幸存下来的女性在陌生人的家中疗养，而这个陌生人开始按照另一个女人的形象来重新塑造她。

Dargis’s take: Such “cinematic allusions are catnip to film lovers, and while they’re pleasurable to consider, they’re so delicately woven into the story that they never distract from the characters or the emotion, or edge into directorial cleverness.” Read the review.

达吉斯的评价：这样的“电影致敬对于影迷来说是无法抗拒的，虽然思索它们令人愉悦，但它们如此细腻地交织在故事中，以至于绝不会分散对角色或情感的注意力，也不会流于对导演机智巧思的展示”。阅读完整影评。

‘Everybody to Kenmure Street’

《全员集结肯缪尔街》(Everybody to Kenmure Street)

The story: Set in Glasgow in 2021, this documentary looks at what happened when immigration enforcement authorities tried to arrest two Indian nationals who had lived in the community for a decade. Neighbors and other protesters, eventually totaling some 2,000 people, showed up and demanded the pair be freed.

故事梗概：本片背景设定在2021年的格拉斯哥，这部纪录片回顾了当移民执法当局企图逮捕两名已在社区生活了十年的印度人时发生的故事。邻居们和其它抗议者——最终总计约2000人——赶到现场并要求释放二人。

Wilkinson’s take: Directed by Felipe Bustos Sierra, a resident of the area himself, “‘Everybody to Kenmure Street’ is an exceptional documentary, both in the story it tells and in the way it tells it, about what happened that day. Read the review

威尔金森的评价：本片由居住在该地区的费利佩·布斯托斯·谢拉执导，“《全员集结肯缪尔街》是一部出类拔萃的纪录片，无论是在它讲述的故事还是在它讲述故事的方式上，都清晰展现了那天发生的事情。”阅读完整影评。

When the pandemic came to an end, many people who had been working from home assumed they would be allowed to maintain that habit at least a few days a week. But today in the U.S., a third of companies have forced everyone back to the office full time and have banned remote and hybrid work.

疫情结束后，许多曾居家办公的员工以为，自己至少可以每周保留几天的远程工作安排。然而时至今日，美国有三分之一的公司已强制所有员工全面返岗，并禁止了远程和混合办公模式。

Some leaders say they insist on full-time in-person work because it boosts productivity, despite clear evidence that it does not. Others claim it’s about collaboration, creativity or culture. Our new research reveals that the objection to any work from home is more likely to be driven by something else entirely: ego.

一些管理者声称，坚持全面到岗是为了提升工作效率——尽管有明确的证据表明它并不能。还有人宣称这关乎协作、创造力或企业文化。我们最新的研究揭示，反对任何形式的居家办公更可能完全是由另一种因素驱动：自负。

Case by case, there may be good reasons for teams to work together in person. As a general rule, though, it turns out that ordering people back to the office full time is a power and status move. It’s a signature strategy of leaders who exhibit narcissistic qualities. They see any kind of remote work as a threat to their authority and admiration. They want to be worshiped at the office altar.

具体到个别情况，团队面对面工作或许确实有充分理由。但总体而言，命令员工全职回办公室实际上是一种权力和地位的展示。这是那些具有自恋人格特质的领导者惯用的典型策略。他们把任何形式的远程办公都视为对自己权威和受人崇拜地位的威胁。他们渴望在办公室里被奉为神明。

Over the past six years, we’ve studied why some leaders continue to support remote work, while others resist it. We surveyed thousands of executives, middle managers and frontline supervisors on a host of personality traits. When we later asked them about their stances on hybrid and remote work, their answers didn’t correlate with how much they trusted their employees or how much they loved being around people. The only trait that consistently predicted objections to remote work was narcissism — the tendency to be self-centered and entitled. The higher the opinions of themselves leaders expressed, the more they coveted power and status — and the more they favored return-to-office mandates.

过去六年里，我们一直在研究，为什么有些领导者继续支持远程办公，另一些人则坚决反对。我们对数千名高管、中层经理和基层主管的各种人格特质展开了调查。后来，当我们询问他们对混合办公和远程办公的态度时，他们的答案与其对员工的信任程度、对人际往来的偏好程度均无明显相关。唯一能够持续预测其反对远程办公的特质是自恋——即以自我为中心、自以为是的倾向。领导者对自己的评价越高，他们就越渴望权力和地位，也越支持强制返岗令。

That pattern held for chief executives of Fortune 500 companies. Since we couldn’t directly measure the size of their egos, we measured factors that many previous studies have identified as reliable proxies for narcissism: the sizes of their pay packages, their signatures and their photos in their company reports. (No, the chief executives probably aren’t directly overseeing the page layout, but their underlings have to figure out what will and won’t please the boss.) Commanding outsize compensation and projecting an outsize image sends a message right out of Ron Burgundy’s playbook: I’m kind of a big deal. We found that the higher chief executives scored on this index, the more likely they were to seek power and status by becoming chairmen of their own companies and joining the boards of other companies. These were the chief executives who made the most negative statements about remote and hybrid work during the first two years of the pandemic.

这一规律同样适用于《财富》500强企业的首席执行官群体。由于无法直接测定他们的自我膨胀程度，我们转而衡量此前众多研究已确认为自恋可靠替代指标的若干因素：薪酬水平、公司年报中的签名大小和照片大小。（当然，首席执行官未必会亲自过问版式设计，但下属必须揣摩上意，弄清什么能让老板满意。）拿着远超常人的薪酬、塑造远超常人的形象，传递的是一种直接来自《王牌播报员》主角罗恩·勃艮第式的信号：我可是个大人物。我们发现，首席执行官在这一指数上的得分越高，就越倾向于通过兼任本公司董事长、加入其他公司董事会等方式来谋求权力与地位，而在疫情最初两年里，对远程和混合办公发表负面言论最多的也是这些人。

The connection between narcissistic personality traits and wanting people in the office full time is not coincidental — it’s causal. In one experiment, we got leaders to reflect on the role that a bold, assertive ego played in the success of Steve Jobs as Apple’s chief executive and Larry Ellison as Oracle’s. After participating in that exercise, leaders were more likely to oppose remote work.

自恋型人格特质与要求员工全职到岗之间的关联绝非偶然，而是一种因果关系。在一项实验中，我们引导管理者思考，史蒂夫·乔布斯在苹果、拉里·埃里森在甲骨文担任首席执行官时，强势张扬的自我在其成功中所起到的作用。参与这一练习之后，这些管理者反对远程办公的倾向明显上升。

None of this is to say that individual leaders who reject remote work are necessarily egomaniacs. Many factors influence workplace policies around flexibility. But our data does show that overall, self-centered leaders tend to struggle with the idea of employees making independent choices about where to work. Psychologists have long suggested that narcissism is like a drug — it leaves people craving a regular supply of attention and validation. Remote work deprives leaders of access to that supply.

这并非说每个拒绝远程工作的领导者都是自大狂。影响工作场所灵活政策的因素有很多。但我们的数据确实表明，总体而言，自我中心的领导者很难接受员工可以自主选择工作地点这一想法。心理学家早已指出，自恋就像毒品——让人渴望源源不断的关注和认可。而远程工作恰恰切断了领导者获得这种“供给”的途径。

When people aren’t in the office, it’s harder to command and control. Leaders can’t intimidate by hovering over cubicle desks and slamming doors. They can’t establish their dominance by summoning people to a conference room and pounding their fists on the table. They can’t even make direct eye contact to stare people down.

当员工不在办公室时，领导者更难发号施令和实施控制。他们无法站在格子间旁边施压，也无法通过摔门来震慑别人；他们无法通过把人召集到会议室、拍桌子来彰显权威；甚至连用眼神盯着别人施压的机会都没有了。

Remote work also prevents leaders from basking in the glow of employee reverence. Instead of standing out in the corner office, leaders are lost in a sea of equal squares on a screen. Instead of rapt attention, they’re met online with boredom, fatigue and interruptions from partners, children and pets. Instead of being showered with immediate gratification, they get glitchy facial expressions and delayed replies. Sycophantic reassurances from employees just don’t have the same effect if they’re on Slack.

远程办公也让领导者无法沉浸在员工的敬仰之中。他们不再是角落办公室里最显眼的人物，而是屏幕上一排平等小方框中的一个。在线上，他们得到的不是全神贯注的倾听，而是倦态、疲惫，以及来自伴侣、孩子和宠物的打扰。他们得到的不是即时的满足感，而是卡顿的表情和延迟的回复。员工在Slack上的阿谀奉承效果终究比不上面对面的恭维。

Self-centered leaders often respond to these threats by tightening their grip. They declare that people are shirking from home instead of working from home. They threaten to fire people who aren’t on site five days a week.

自我中心的领导者往往会通过进一步收紧控制来应对这些威胁。他们宣称，员工在家是在“偷懒”，而不是“居家办公”。他们威胁要解雇那些不是每天到岗的人。

Rigorous evidence shows that forcing people to come in every day backfires. Take it from studies of over 450 companies and over three million employees: Return-to-office mandates fail to increase financial returns. They succeed only in motivating star employees to quit, reducing the satisfaction of those who stay and discouraging new talent from joining. Experiments at tech companies and nonprofits show that letting people work from home part of the week boosts happiness and decreases turnover by a third — without any cost to performance. In many cases, those employees even get more done, because they don’t have to spend time commuting and don’t get distracted by office interruptions.

大量严谨的证据表明，强迫员工每天回办公室会适得其反。对450多家公司和300多万名员工的研究显示，返岗令并不能提高财务回报。它只会促使明星员工离职、降低留任员工的满意度，并吓退新人才加入。在科技公司和非营利组织所做的实验表明，允许员工每周有一部分时间居家办公可以提高幸福感，并将离职率降低三分之一，而且不会损害绩效。在许多情况下，这些员工甚至完成了更多工作，因为他们不用花时间通勤，也不会被办公室里的各种干扰分心。

There are limits to the benefit of flexible office policies. Research suggests that working from home for more than half the week can be isolating — it’s harder to build connections and cultures. It’s also more difficult to encourage creative collisions, informal learning and mentoring. But it doesn’t take five days a week to accomplish these goals. In fact, it turns out that people are most collaborative and creative when they work remotely part of the week. They can use a day or two at home to focus on individual deep work and reserve the rest of the week for communication and collective problem-solving. It’s well documented that too much togetherness breeds groupthink (not to mention germs). When we spend some time apart, we actually generate more innovative ideas and make smarter decisions.

灵活办公政策的益处也是有限度的。研究表明，每周居家办公超过一半时间可能导致社交隔离——难以建立人际联结和培育企业文化。同时，促进创意碰撞、非正式学习和师徒指导也变得更加困难。但实现这些目标并不需要每周五天都在办公室。事实上，研究发现，当人们每周有部分时间居家办公时，协作与创造力反而达到最佳状态——他们可以用一两天的居家办公专注于深度个人工作，将其余时间留给沟通与集体解决问题。大量研究也已充分证明，过度的集体性相处容易滋生群体思维（更不用说病菌传播）。适度保持距离反而能激发更具创新性的想法，促成更明智的决策。

Hybrid work does have its own challenges for leaders. It’s not fun to try to inspire through a recorded video message or lead a brainstorming session on a digital whiteboard. But to maintain a competitive advantage in an increasingly flexible world, it’s time for leaders to put their egos aside and master the art of managing from afar. Evidence supports a few basic guidelines.

混合办公对领导者确实提出了新的挑战。通过录制的视频传递鼓舞人心的信息、在数字白板上主持头脑风暴都不是什么轻松的事。但如果想在一个日益灵活的世界中保持竞争优势，领导者就必须放下自我，学会远程管理的艺术。证据支持以下几条基本原则。

One: Coordination counts. Teams need anchor days when everyone shows up — especially to welcome newcomers and mentor junior people. At Microsoft, new hires who spent at least a couple of days a month with their manager and their teams were more satisfied with their early experiences, which in turn meant they were more likely to stay over the next year and a half.

第一，协调很重要。团队需要设定“共同到岗日”，尤其对于欢迎新员工和指导初级员工至关重要。在微软，入职初期每月至少与直属上司和团队共处几天的新员工，对早期工作体验的满意度更高，进而在接下来一年半内更倾向于留任。

Two: Intensity beats frequency. The software company Atlassian has found that spending a few days with your team at a well-designed quarterly team gathering does more for connection and belonging than daily schleps to the office.

第二，强度胜于频率。软件公司Atlassian发现，相比每天辛苦通勤到办公室，与团队一起参加经过精心设计的季度聚会、共处几天更能增强联系感和归属感。

Three: Hybrid work is not one-size-fits-all. Different jobs require different amounts of time in person. So do different people; for example, flexibility proves particularly important in attracting and retaining women. And you need to gather together more if your staff operates like a basketball team passing the ball back and forth, rather than a gymnastics team whose members do their own individual events. (This explains why fully remote teams struggle to patent new technologies, but the people who examine patent applications are more productive when they can work from anywhere they like.)

第三，混合办公并非“一刀切”。不同工作需要不同程度的面对面交流；不同人也是如此。例如，工作灵活性对于吸引和留住女性员工尤其重要。如果员工的工作方式更像篮球队，需要不断传球配合，那么他们就需要更多聚在一起；如果更像体操队，每个人负责自己的项目，那么面对面时间的需求就没那么高。（这也解释了为什么完全远程的团队在申请新专利方面表现欠佳，而专利审查员在能够自由选择工作地点时工作效率反而更高。）

Four: Most people care more about when they work than where. If they can choose the hours, they’re more willing to let leaders pick the place.

第四，大多数人更在乎什么时候工作，而不是在哪里工作。如果他们可以自己选择工作时间，那么他们通常更愿意接受由领导来决定工作地点。

Organizational policies shouldn’t be vanity projects. The responsibility of leaders is not to mold the world to their needs. It’s to adapt themselves to the world’s needs, even if it means learning to live without the thrill of a live audience.

组织政策不应该是领导者的“面子工程”。领导者的责任不是让世界来适应他们的需求，而是适应世界的需求——即使这意味着要学着在没有现场观众带来的兴奋感的情况下生活。

Katrine Razniak, 27, arrived in San Francisco in 2022 as a recruiter at LinkedIn, earning $70,000 a year. Her annual salary soared to $180,000 when she joined the software company Rippling to lead a team of account managers. Her partner, Adam Woodbury, 39, moved to the city in 2021 and earns $185,000 as a software engineer.

27岁的卡特琳·拉兹尼亚克于2022年作为领英的招聘人员来到旧金山，年薪为7万美元。加入软件公司Rippling并领导一个客户经理团队后，她的年薪飙升至18万美元。她的伴侣、39岁的亚当·伍德伯里于2021年搬到这座城市，作为一名软件工程师收入为18.5万美元。

These days, even those six-figure salaries are no longer enough in San Francisco.

如今，在旧金山，即使是六位数的薪水也不再足够了。

When Ms. Razniak and Mr. Woodbury tried to find a one-bedroom apartment for under $5,000 a month this spring, they struck out. They looked at around 30 properties over three months, but all were too expensive and too in demand. At one listing for $5,200 a month, they found 30 people had added their names to a sign-up sheet within an hour of the open house.

当拉兹尼亚克和伍德伯里今年春天试图寻找一间月租5000美元以下的一居室公寓时，他们碰壁了。他们在三个月里看了大约30处房产，但所有房子都太贵且太抢手。在一处月租5200美元的房源，他们发现在开放日开始不到一个小时内，就有30人将自己的名字写在了预约看房表上。

They ended the search. But even if they had found a place, a question lingered: whether a city where groceries and dinner with friends had become sources of financial concern was somewhere they could build a future.

他们结束了寻找。但就算他们找到了住处，一个疑问依然挥之不去：在一个连买食品杂货和与朋友聚餐都能引起财务顾虑的城市，他们是否真的还能构筑未来？

“I don’t feel completely hopeless, but I don’t think I can stay in S.F.,” Ms. Razniak said. Mr. Woodbury added, “At some point, there was a slow transition where we both realized it just didn’t make any sense.”

“我倒不觉得完全绝望，但我觉得我无法留在旧金山了，”拉兹尼亚克说。伍德伯里补充道：“在某个节点，发生了一次缓慢的转变，我们两个都意识到这根本没有任何意义了。”

Ms. Razniak and Mr. Woodbury are not struggling by any conventional measure. But as a wave of artificial intelligence wealth is set to deluge San Francisco, even young tech workers who came to the city chasing the Silicon Valley dream have started to say an affordable future feels increasingly out of reach.

按照任何传统标准来看，拉兹尼亚克和伍德伯里都算不上生活拮据。但随着一波人工智能财富即将席卷旧金山，即使是来到这座城市追逐硅谷梦想的年轻科技工薪族也开始表示，一个负担得起的未来感觉正变得越来越遥不可及。

That’s because as the A.I. companies OpenAI and Anthropic — both with headquarters in San Francisco and valued at nearly $1 trillion — prepare to go public, an A.I. elite has emerged that can outspend other tech workers. The two companies, along with Elon Musk’s newly public SpaceX, could mint more than 20 new billionaires among current and former employees, according to an analysis by Sacra, a private markets research firm.

这是因为，随着总部均设在旧金山、估值接近1万亿美元的人工智能公司OpenAI和Anthropic准备上市，一个能够压倒其他科技工薪族消费的人工智能精英阶层已经出现。根据私募市场研究公司Sacra的分析，这两家公司以及埃隆·马斯克新上市的SpaceX可能会在现任和前任雇员中造就20多位新亿万富翁。

“I feel a little bit like I’m not good enough to live here anymore because I don’t work at an A.I. company,” Mr. Woodbury said, even though his salary puts him roughly in the top 20 percent of American households, according to Census Bureau data.

“我觉得自己现在有点配不上住在这里了，因为我不在人工智能公司工作，”伍德伯里说，尽管根据普查局的数据，他的薪水大约使他跻身于美国前20%的高收入家庭之列。

Mr. Woodbury recently moved to Carnelian Bay, on Lake Tahoe, Calif., which is less expensive. Ms. Razniak remains in an apartment in San Francisco’s Haight-Ashbury neighborhood, which she shares with two roommates and for which she pays $1,650 a month. They’re making the long-distance relationship work.

伍德伯里最近搬到了加利福尼亚州太浩湖的卡内利安湾，那里的生活成本较低。拉兹尼亚克则留在旧金山海特-阿什伯里街区的一间公寓里，与两名室友合租，每月支付1650美元。他们正在维系着这段异地关系。

San Francisco has long wrestled with affordability, but the issue has been magnified as OpenAI, Anthropic and other start-ups have attracted a flood of A.I. workers. The overall cost of living in the city sits 65.6 percent higher than the national average, according to the latest data from the Cost of Living Index by the Council for Community and Economic Research.

长久以来，旧金山一直在与生活成本高昂的问题作斗争，但随着OpenAI、Anthropic和其他初创公司吸引了大量人工智能从业者涌入，问题愈发严重。根据社区与经济研究理事会的生活成本指数最新数据，该市的总体生活成本比全美平均水平高出65.6%。

Housing leads the markup. San Francisco’s median home price topped $1.7 million in April, according to a report by Redfin, far above the national median of around $450,000. And in the last few months, the city’s average apartment rent surpassed New York City’s to be the nation’s most expensive, reaching $3,827 a month, according to the real estate data firm CoStar.

住房高居溢价榜首。根据Redfin的一份报告，旧金山4月的房屋价格中位数突破了170万美元，远高于约45万美元的全美中位数。而根据房地产数据公司CoStar的数据，在过去的几个月里，该市的平均公寓租金超越了纽约市，成为全美最贵，达到了每月3827美元。

旧金山4月的房屋价格中位数突破了170万美元，当地的平均公寓租金目前也高居全美榜首。

“It’s a pressure cooker, and it’s heated up really fast,” said Nigel Hughes, a senior researcher at CoStar. The apartment vacancy rate in some of the city’s most sought-after neighborhoods — including the Marina District, Pacific Heights and South of Market — has fallen to roughly 3 percent, down from about 13 percent in 2020, according to CoStar data. New construction has stalled.

“这是一个压力锅，而且升温非常快，”CoStar的高级研究员奈杰尔·休斯说。CoStar的数据显示，在该市一些最抢手的街区（包括马丽娜区、太平洋高地和市场南部社区），公寓空置率已从2020年的约13%降至了大约3%。新建筑的施工已经陷入停滞。

Rising property prices are compounded by other factors. Utilities cost about 41 percent more in San Francisco than the national base line, transportation runs roughly 43 percent higher and groceries cost about 19 percent more than in the rest of the country, according to the Cost of Living Index.

攀升的房产价格又与其它因素交织在一起。根据生活成本指数，旧金山的公共事业费用比全美基准高出约41%，交通费用高出约43%，杂货食品开销则比全美其他地区高出约19%。

And it is increasingly hard to keep up with the Joneses — or in this case, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, and Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic. The mean annual pay in San Francisco was $196,365 last year, up from $153,359 in 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

而且，与周围人攀比正变得越来越困难——在这种情况下，攀比的对象是OpenAI的首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼和Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代这样的人。根据劳工统计局的数据，旧金山去年的年平均薪资为196365美元，高于2020年的153359美元。

Ted Egan, the City of San Francisco’s chief economist, said high earners had always weighed whether to accept the city’s trade-offs or leave for somewhere with a yard and garage. What’s new is the scale, he said. When Uber went public in 2019, its valuation was about $82 billion.

旧金山市首席经济学家泰德·伊根表示，高收入者总是在权衡是接受这座城市的得失，还是搬去有院子和车库的地方。他说，如今的新变化在于规模。当优步(Uber)在2019年上市时，其估值约为820亿美元。

“OpenAI and Anthropic are estimated to be more than 10 times that,” Mr. Egan said.

“而OpenAI和Anthropic的估值预计是这个数字的10多倍，”伊根说。

Daniel Lurie, the mayor, said in a statement that his administration was working to reduce costs through access to child care, a new family housing zoning plan and transit improvements. He did not specifically address the concerns of six-figure earners.

市长丹尼尔·卢里在一份声明中表示，他的行政当局正致力于通过提供托儿服务、全新的家庭住房规划法案以及改善交通来降低成本。他没有具体针对六位数收入者的担忧做出回应。

(The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The companies have denied the claims.)

（《纽约时报》已对OpenAI和微软提起诉讼，指控其在人工智能系统相关的新闻内容上侵犯版权。这些公司均否认了指控。）

For Ms. Razniak, the cost of existing in San Francisco has become its own drain. Her monthly budget has increased by about $1,000 more than previous years for what she describes as roughly the same life.

对拉兹尼亚克来说，在旧金山维持生存的成本本身已变成了一种消耗。为了维持在她看来大致相同的生活，她目前的月度预算比往年增加了大约1000美元。

Despite more than doubling her salary since she arrived, Ms. Razniak said she felt neither wealthy nor that she was living paycheck to paycheck. Instead, it’s something in between: a low-level vigilance about money that she had expected, by now, to have left behind.

尽管自她到达以来收入增加了一倍多，但拉兹尼亚克表示，她既不觉得自己富有，也不觉得自己是在过着月光族的生活。相反，是介于两者之间的一种状态：一种对金钱的低度焦虑，而她本以为，自己如今早就应该摆脱这种焦虑了。

“I thought when I’d make $200k I would be able to basically not worry about money at all,” she said, adding that she and her friends stopped going out to restaurants last year and shifted to potlucks and reality-TV nights.

“我以为当我赚到20万美元的时候，我基本上就可以完全不用担心钱了，”她说，并且她和朋友们去年就停止了去餐馆就餐，转而改成了自带菜肴的聚餐和看真人秀电视之夜。

Demand from professionals for affordable housing has exploded. This month, Varsha Madapoosi, 25, who lives in the Lower Pacific Heights neighborhood and works in financial technology, posted two open rooms in the four-bedroom, one-bathroom home she rents — going for around $1,200 and $1,500 a month — to a private Facebook group, attaching a Google form and leaving it open for 24 hours.

职场人士对经济适用房的需求出现了爆炸式增长。本月，25岁的瓦尔莎·马达普西将她租住的四室一卫住宅中的两个空房间（月租分别约为1200美元和1500美元）发布到了一个私密Facebook群组里，并附上了一个谷歌表单，开放接收申请24小时。她住在下太平洋高地街区，从事金融科技工作。

She received 88 responses immediately. In contrast, a single open room for about $1,400 drew 28 messages over four days last July.

她立即收到了88份回复。相比之下，去年7月一个约1400美元的单间房源在四天内仅吸引了28条信息。

“I have never seen this kind of response,” Ms. Madapoosi said.

“我从未见过这么多的回复，”马达普西说。

Jolie Gan, 23, moved to San Francisco in January after completing a Fulbright fellowship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She now has two jobs: working at the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and writing for Core Memory, a technology and science publication, earning about $250,000 a year. She and her roommate have already moved three times in two months — in one case, they left an apartment that was misrepresented as a two-bedroom; another time, they departed a building that had black mold and rats.

23岁的朱莉·甘今年1月结束了在麻省理工学院的富布赖特奖学金项目后搬到了旧金山。她现在打着两份工：在风险投资公司安德里森·霍罗威茨(Andreessen Horowitz)工作，并为科技与科学刊物《核心记忆》(Core Memory)撰稿，年收入约25万美元。她和室友在两个月内已经搬了三次家——有一次，他们离开了一间被虚假宣传为两居室的公寓；还有一次，他们搬离了一栋有黑霉菌和老鼠的大楼。

At $250,000 a year, and with no student loan debt, Ms. Gan said she felt she could manage, even saving for retirement. But she said she saw the strain on friends who were earning below $200,000, for whom rent, utilities and groceries consume nearly everything that comes in.

拿着25万美元年薪且没有学生贷款债务的甘表示，她觉得还可以应对，甚至还能为退休存钱。但她说，她看到了那些收入在20万美元以下的年轻朋友们所承受的压力，对他们来说，房租、公共事业费和食品杂货开销几乎吞噬了所有的进账。

Ms. Gan said she was determined to stay in San Francisco for the next several years because of the career opportunities, the energy of the city and the community she had built.

甘说，由于职业机会、城市的活力以及她所建立的社群，她下定决心要在接下来的几年里留在旧金山。

“As silly as this housing situation is, and as expensive as it gets, I think that all these intangibles are still worth it for me,” she said.

“尽管这个住房状况很荒谬，而且生活成本变得越来越贵，但我认为所有这些无形的东西对我来说仍然是值得的，”她说。

Ms. Razniak and Mr. Woodbury have started thinking about Seattle. The life Ms. Razniak imagines there is one she cannot picture affording in San Francisco, even on a combined income that would be remarkable almost anywhere else in the country.

拉兹尼亚克和伍德伯里已经开始考虑西雅图了。拉兹尼亚克在脑海中勾勒的那种西雅图生活，是她无法想象自己在旧金山能负担得起的，即使他们两人的合并收入在全美其他任何地方都堪称卓越。

“We want a house, we want a garage, we want storage,” she said. “And that just doesn’t feel attainable here.”

“我们想要一栋房子，我们想要车库，我们想要储物空间，”她说。“而这一切在这里感觉根本无法企及。”

China is intensifying a campaign of pressure on Japan. In recent days, China has banned more Japanese companies from receiving Chinese exports. It and Russia flew bombers near southwest Japan. It has confirmed that two Japanese businessmen in northeastern China were detained.

中国正在加紧对日本施压。近日，中国禁止更多日本企业获得中国出口的商品，并与俄罗斯一同在日本西南部附近空域出动轰炸机。此外，中方已证实有两名日本商人在中国东北地区被拘留。

The campaign started in November, when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan said her country could help defend Taiwan — which China considers part of its territory — in the event of a Chinese invasion. China has since reduced flights and academic exchanges, and continued to ban imports of Japanese seafood.

这场施压行动始于去年11月。当时，日本首相高市早苗表示，一旦中国入侵台湾，日本可能派兵协防——中国将台湾视为其领土的一部分。自那时起，中国减少了民航班次和学术交流，并继续禁止进口日本海鲜。

Now China is using its most powerful weapon: its control over rare earths, which are essential for manufacturing. Analysts say the scale and diversity of the measures is the worst in many years.

如今，中国正在动用其最强大的武器：对制造业至关重要的稀土的控制权。分析人士表示，此次制裁措施的规模和多样性是多年所未见的。

“The approach China is taking is truly comprehensive, and each tactic is interconnected,” said Shin Kawashima, a professor at the department of international relations at the University of Tokyo.

“中国采取的方法确实是全方位的，每种策略都环环相扣，”东京大学国际关系学系教授川岛真表示。

De Facto Ban on Rare Earths Exports

变相禁止稀土出口

China’s commerce ministry announced new controls on Monday that banned dozens of Japanese entities from importing any Chinese items that could have military applications. The entities included the state-run National Institute for Defense Studies and military affiliates of Mitsubishi Electric.

中国商务部周一宣布了新的管制措施，禁止数十家日本实体进口任何可能用于军事用途的中国商品。这些实体包括国家机构防卫研究所以及三菱电机下属的军事企业。

The measure expanded a blacklist, first announced in February, that had targeted 20 Japanese entities. The ministry also added another 20 Japanese companies to an export watch list, subjecting them to more scrutiny.

该举措扩大了今年2月首次公布、针对20家日本实体的黑名单。商务部还将另外20家日本企业列入出口观察名单，对其进行更严格的审查。

5月，在长崎三菱重工业造船厂，被称为海上自卫队的日本海军成员站在的一艘隐身护卫舰前。

For the Japanese companies on China’s export control list, the move amounts to a de facto ban on Chinese rare earths, according to Yoshikiyo Shimamine, a senior fellow at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

第一生命经济研究所高级研究员岛峰义清表示，对于被列入中国出口管制名单的日本企业来说，此举相当于变相禁止了对中国稀土的进口。

The Chinese authorities, he said, “will likely spend a considerable amount of time reviewing whether it’s for military use, effectively reducing rare earth exports to almost zero.”

他指出，中国官方“可能会花费相当长的时间来审查这些物资是否用于军事用途，从而实际上将稀土出口量减至近乎为零”。

Beijing has used this playbook before, in its trade war with the United States. By threatening to throttle the world’s supply of rare earths, Beijing was eventually able to strike a trade deal with Washington to avoid the worst of President Trump’s tariffs.

北京以前在与美国的贸易战中就使用过这种手段。通过威胁要勒紧全球的稀土供应，北京最终得以与华盛顿达成贸易协议，从而避免了特朗普总统最严厉的关税政策。

“The Chinese government perhaps believes that through continuous pressure, Japan may yield. Because China is a major country and with the U.S.-China trade war, Trump has continued to back down,” said Xing Yuqing, an economics professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

“中国政府或许认为，通过持续施压，日本可能会屈服。因为中国是一个大国，而且在中美贸易战中，特朗普一直在退让，”东京政策研究大学院大学经济学教授邢予青表示。

Warnings of ‘New Militarism’

对“新军国主义”的警告

China’s government said it had imposed its latest sanctions in response to Tokyo’s “new militarism.” Beijing has criticized Japan’s decision to revise its laws to allow the export of lethal weapons.

中国政府表示，实施最新制裁是为了回应东京的“新军国主义”。北京方面对日本修改法律以允许出口杀伤性武器的决定提出了批评。

Ms. Takaichi is an outspoken critic of China and has promised to raise Japan’s military spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product. Japan believes that it must modernize its forces to keep up with China’s rising military clout in the region.

经常公开批评中国的高市早苗还承诺将日本的军费开支提高到国内生产总值的2%。日本认为自己必须实现军队现代化，以跟上中国在该地区日益增强的军事影响力。

日本首相高市早苗去年10月抵达韩国，准备与中国国家主席习近平会面。她随后表明日本有意在中国攻击台湾时出兵协防。

Also provocative to Beijing is Japan’s recent military cooperation with the Philippines, including Tokyo’s decision to send decommissioned warships to the Southeast Asian country and participate in joint parachute exercises this month.

日本近期与菲律宾的军事合作同样被北京认为是挑衅之举，包括东京决定向这个东南亚国家赠送退役战舰，并在本月参与联合跳伞演习。

Ships and Jets

舰船与战机

Earlier this month, China’s coast guard patrolled the waters east of Taiwan, where China, Japan and Taiwan all have competing maritime claims. Beijing called it a ”maritime traffic enforcement operation,” in which it inspected vessels in the area.

本月早些时候，中国海警在台湾以东海域进行了巡逻，中国大陆、日本和台湾在该海域均存在主权争议。北京将其称为海上“执法巡查”，并在该海域对船只进行了检查。

Chinese state media suggested that the presence of Chinese vessels there could become routine. China’s foreign ministry said the operation was in response to an announcement by Japan and the Philippines that the two countries would hold talks on their maritime ⁠boundaries, which would likely involve the waters near Taiwan.

中国官方媒体表示中国船只在该地区的存在可能会常态化。中国外交部表示，该行动是对日本和菲律宾宣布将就海上边界举行谈判的回应，这极有可能涉及到台湾附近海域。

“China views each of these steps as a provocation to the reddest of red lines, which is Taiwan,” said William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at International Crisis Group. “So that’s why we are seeing this series of escalations.”

“中国将这些举措中的每一步都视为对最红的红线——即台湾——的挑衅，”国际危机组织东北亚首席分析师威廉·杨（音）表示。“这就是为什么我们看到这一系列升级举动。”

On Saturday, a joint Chinese-Russian bomber patrol of 15 planes passed over the Sea of Japan, prompting Tokyo to scramble fighter jets to meet them.

周六，由15架飞机组成的中俄轰炸机联合巡逻队飞越日本海，促使东京的战斗机升空进行拦截。

Historical Enmity

历史恩怨

Relations between China and Japan have for decades been prone to flare-ups over territorial disputes and Japan’s brutal World War II occupation, for which Beijing believes Tokyo has never sufficiently apologized.

几十年来，由于领土争端和日本在二战期间的残酷占领，中日关系一直极易爆发冲突，北京认为东京从未就那段历史进行过充分的道歉。

The last time in recent history that relations between the two countries reached such a low point was in 2010, when two Japanese naval vessels collided with a Chinese trawler near uninhabited islands — known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan — that Japan controls but China also claims. At the time, Beijing halted rare-earth exports to Japan for only two months.

在近代历史上，两国关系上一次达到如此低谷是在2010年。当时，两艘日本海警船在无人居住的岛屿——中国称钓鱼岛，日本称尖阁诸岛——附近与一艘中国渔船发生碰撞，该岛屿由日本控制，但中国也宣称拥有主权。当时，北京方面仅暂停向日本出口稀土两个月。

In the years since, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy and invested heavily to modernize its military.

在随后的几年里，中国超越日本成为全球第二大经济体，并投入巨资实现军事现代化。

While Tokyo has not retaliated against China’s measures, Ms. Takaichi has also not recanted her comment from November, and is unlikely to do so. The incident may be cover for Beijing to pressure Japan at a time when Tokyo’s most important ally, the United States, is distracted in the Middle East.

尽管东京方面没有对中国的措施进行报复，但高市也没有收回她11月的言论，而且不太可能这样做。这一事件或许为北京提供了一个借口，在东京最重要的盟友美国因中东局势分散注意力之际，对日本施加压力。

“It would seem Beijing prefers antagonizing Tokyo. To what purpose? Perhaps simply to show that it can,” said Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“北京似乎更倾向于与东京对抗。其目的何在？或许只是为了展示自己有这个能力，”美国对外关系委员会高级研究员希拉·A·史密斯表示。

An Australian man has been charged with homicide in Thailand, after a Thai teenager’s body was found stuffed in a suitcase and abandoned in the southeastern beachside city of Pattaya, a police official said in a video statement.

一名警方官员在一段视频声明中表示，在泰国东南部海滨城市芭堤雅，有人发现一名泰国少女的尸体被塞进旅行箱并遭遗弃，随后一名澳大利亚男子被控犯有谋杀罪。

The suspect, Simon Peter Carman, was arrested on Saturday at Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok as he was about to leave the country, according to a statement by the police in Pattaya.

依据芭堤雅警方的声明，嫌疑人西蒙·彼得·卡曼于周六在曼谷的素万那普机场准备离境时被捕。

The 17-year-old girl, who was reported missing on Friday, was last seen with a “foreign man” on Jomtien Beach, according to the police statement.

依据警方声明，这名于周五被报失踪的17岁少女最后一次被看见时是在乔木提恩海滩，当时她和一名“外国男子”在一起。

The teenager’s death and the suspect’s arrest were being covered as top news in both Australia and Thailand. The case has put a spotlight on Pattaya, a popular destination that has been notorious for its adult entertainment, but has tried to move past its reputation as a magnet for illicit sex tourism. Local media, including The Bangkok Post, reported that the dispute had been reportedly over the man’s payment for the teenager’s company.

这名少女的死亡以及嫌疑人的被捕正成为澳大利亚和泰国的头条新闻。该案让芭堤雅这一热门目的地再次成为焦点。芭堤雅曾因其成人娱乐恶名昭彰，但它一直试图摆脱其作为非法性旅游磁石的声誉。包括《曼谷邮报》在内的当地媒体报道称，据称纠纷的起因是该男子支付这名少女的陪伴费用问题。

The police said they reviewed CCTV footage at a condo near the beach that showed the girl walking into the building with a man. He was later seen in the footage leaving alone with a large black suitcase, before driving away on a motorcycle.

警方表示，他们调取了海滩附近一座公寓的闭路电视画面，显示该少女与一名男子一同走入大楼。画面随后显示，该男子独自带着一个黑色大旅行箱离开，随后骑摩托车驶离。

At around 1:30 a.m. Saturday, investigators found the suitcase in a thicket near railroad tracks, with the girl’s naked body crumpled up inside, according to the police.

依据警方的说法，周六凌晨1时30分左右，调查人员在铁轨附近的一片灌木丛中发现了这个旅行箱，里面蜷缩着女孩赤裸的尸体。

Mr. Carman’s passport was found in the condo unit, the police said.

警方称，卡曼的护照在这座公寓套房内被发现。

警方公布的监控录像截图显示，上周在芭堤雅，西蒙·彼得·卡曼与一名泰国少女走进了一栋公寓楼。

Anek Srathongyoo, a superintendent with the Pattaya police, told local reporters that Mr. Carman was facing charges including homicide, taking or transporting a minor for “indecent purposes” and concealing or destroying a corpse. The charges carry a maximum penalty of death, he said.

芭堤雅警方主管阿内克·斯拉通尤告诉当地记者，卡曼面临的指控包括谋杀、出于“不轨意图”带走或运输未成年人以及隐藏或破坏尸体。他说，这些指控的最高刑罚为死刑。

Mr. Anek told Reuters that the man told the police that he had not intended to kill the victim, but admitted to strangling her.

阿内克告诉路透社，该男子告诉警方，他并非故意杀害受害者，但承认掐了她。

“He stated that they had an argument and, during the altercation, he strangled the woman,” Mr. Anek said, according to Reuters.

依据路透社报道，阿内克说：“他声称他们发生了争吵，在冲突过程中，他掐了这名女子。”

The teenager’s family told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that she had traveled from her home in Kalasin, a small city in the northeast, to Pattaya in mid-June, saying she was going on vacation with a friend.

这名少女的家人告诉澳大利亚广播公司(ABC)，她于6月中旬从东北部小城加拉信的家中前往芭堤雅，当时她说要和朋友去度假。

She sometimes sold fruit or garlands on street corners to help out her family, but was not forced to work, her stepmother told the public broadcaster.

她的继母告诉这家公共广播机构，她有时会在街角卖水果或花环来帮衬家里，但并非被强迫工作。

“We kept thinking — not our child. She’s smart and capable. She knows how to take care of herself,” the stepmother, Oradee Bussarakum, told Thai media.

继母奥拉迪·布萨拉昆告诉泰国媒体：“我们一直在想——不会是我们的孩子。她聪明又有能耐。她懂得如何照顾自己。”

ABC reported that Mr. Carman was from Western Australia and had previously worked as a truck driver.

ABC报道称，卡曼来自西澳大利亚州，当过卡车司机。

Australia’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, declined to comment on whether consular assistance was being provided, citing “privacy obligations,” but said it was a “horrific case.”

澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤(Penny Wong)以“隐私义务”为由，拒绝就其是否正获得领事协助发表评论，但表示这是一个“令人震惊的案件”。

“I think we’ve all been horrified by what has happened, and our sympathy goes to the friends and family,” she said.

“我想我们所有人都对发生的事情感到震惊，我们向遇害者朋友和家人表示慰问，”她说。

A Chinese lab recently unveiled another astonishingly powerful and astonishingly cheap artificial intelligence model. GLM-5.2, produced by Z.ai, is almost as good as Anthropic’s latest model but runs at less than a tenth of its price.

中国的一家实验室最近推出了一款有着惊人的强大性能和低廉价格的人工智能模型。由智谱AI开发的GLM-5.2在性能上几乎可以媲美Anthropic的最新模型，但运行成本却不到其十分之一。

The A.I. race between the U.S. and China has been front of mind at the highest levels of government in both countries.

美中之间的人工智能竞赛一直受到两国政府最高层的高度关注。

But creating the most potent model is not the only — and maybe not even the best — way to measure A.I. success. Today I write about an area that’s had less attention, but where China might well have an edge: managing the human and political fallout from the A.I. revolution.

然而，开发出最强大的模型并不是衡量人工智能成功的唯一方式，甚至可能不是最好的方式。今天，我想谈谈一个较少受到关注、但中国很可能占据优势的领域：管理人工智能革命所带来的社会与政治影响。

Robotaxis and A.I. Marxism

无人驾驶出租车与AI马克思主义

If there is one thing China’s Communist Party fears, it’s a restive proletariat.

要说有什么是中国共产党格外害怕的，那就是躁动不安的无产阶级了。

In Wuhan, the world’s largest open-air laboratory for driverless cars, taxi drivers first complained about the growing fleet of robotaxis two years ago. Petitions were filed. Social media posts were hashtagged. The local outcry was noisy.

在全球最大的无人驾驶汽车露天试验场武汉，出租车司机们在两年前首次抱怨无人驾驶出租车车队规模的日益扩大。当时人们递交了请愿书，在社交媒体上建立了标签话题，当地的反对声音不绝于耳。

It focused minds in the party, which reacted swiftly to censor the protests online. But it also set off a bigger rethink of something that worries many in the West, too. How to avoid mass displacement of humans by A.I. in the labor market — and the political backlash that comes with it?

这引起了相关部门的高度重视，官方迅速采取措施平息了网络上的抗议。但这也引发了对一个同样令西方许多人感到担忧的大问题的重新思考：如何在劳动力市场中避免人工智能对人类的大规模替代，以及随之而来的社会反弹？

China has more experience than most countries with automating jobs. More than two million robots work in its factories. Driverless delivery vans roam many of its cities. Service robots attend to guests in hotels and restaurants. Parking-lot robots swap out dying E.V. batteries. Drones deliver lunch.

中国在工作自动化方面比大多数国家拥有更丰富的经验。其工厂里有超过200万台工业机器人正在工作。无人驾驶快递车在许多城市的街道上穿梭。服务机器人在酒店和餐厅里招待顾客。停车场里的机器人负责为电动汽车更换电池。无人机则忙着配送外卖。

So far the fallout has been mostly among blue-collar workers. But A.I. is primarily threatening college graduates. And for an authoritarian regime that fears political instability, that’s a group that has historically caused trouble.

迄今为止，这种影响主要集中在蓝领工人身上。但人工智能主要威胁到的却是大学毕业生。对于一个极其重视社会稳定的管理体制而言，高学历群体在历史上往往更需要稳妥的引导。

Which is why China’s goal to become the world’s A.I. superpower is now officially twinned with another one: keeping humans at the core of the A.I. economy. And over the past year, the government has started acting more decisively to make that happen.

这正是为什么中国将自己打造为全球人工智能超级大国的目标已经正式和另一个目标绑定在一起，那就是让普通人始终保持在人工智能经济的核心位置。而在过去一年里，政府已经开始采取更果断的行动来落实这一目标。

‘Liberating labor,’ one court case at a time

通过一个个法庭判例来“解放劳动力”

When the Communist Party wants to show it really means something, it puts it in a five-year plan. And on Page 72 of its current five-year plan, China commits to “comprehensively address” the impact of A.I. on employment.

当官方想要表达其对某件事动了真格时，通常会将其写入五年规划。在当前的五年规划中，中国承诺要“积极应对”人工智能对就业带来的冲击。

I spoke to Kyle Chan at the Brookings Institution, who studies China’s A.I. policy. He told me that China wants A.I. to augment humans — that is, make them more productive across old and new industries — not replace them. And in the process of transitioning to this A.I. economy, it says, it wants to cushion the impact to avoid social fallout.

我采访了布鲁金斯学会研究中国人工智能政策的专家陈凯欣(Kyle Chan)。他告诉我，中国希望人工智能能够增强人类的能力——也就是说，提高人类在传统和新兴行业中的生产力，而不是取代人类。他表示，在向这种人工智能经济过渡的过程中，官方希望能够缓冲其带来的冲击，以避免引发社会问题。

My colleague Catie Edmondson recently wrote about what this looks like. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is promising “targeted employment support for key industries.” One member of the National People’s Congress is calling for an “A.I.-unemployment insurance program” as a safety net for displaced workers. Party officials have pushed for vocational training to help workers adapt to an A.I.-centric job market.

我的同事凯蒂·埃德蒙森(Catie Edmondson)最近撰文描述了这一现状。人力资源和社会保障部承诺将为“重点行业提供定向就业支持”。一位全国人大代表则呼吁建立一项“AI失业保险”制度，以此作为被转岗工人的安全网。官方也一直在推动职业培训，以帮助劳动者适应以人工智能为中心的工作市场。

Chinese scholars have even been developing a field they call A.I. Marxism — trying to apply a Marxist lens to questions like “Who or what creates value after the A.I. revolution?” (The machine? The human who invented it? The human who operates it?)

中国学者甚至一直在拓展一个他们称为“AI马克思主义”的领域——试图用马克思主义的视角来剖析诸如“在人工智能革命之后，究竟是谁或什么创造了价值？”（是机器？是发明机器的人？还是操作机器的人？）等问题。

Perhaps most strikingly, the government is leaning heavily on companies to avoid layoffs. And those who don’t fall in line might find themselves in court.

或许最引人注目的是，政府正在给企业施加巨大的压力以避免裁员。而那些未能严格执行的企业可能会发现自己被告上法庭。

There have already been several high-profile rulings siding with workers who were dismissed. In April, a court ruled that a tech company had illegally laid off a worker after replacing him with A.I. software. The ruling delivered an implicit warning to other employers.

目前已经出现了几起偏向被辞退员工的受热议判决。今年4月，一家法院裁定，某科技公司在用人工智能软件取代一名员工后将其解雇属于违法行为。这一判决向其他雇主发出了含蓄的警告。

“The development of artificial intelligence technology should be applied to liberating labor, promoting employment and improving people’s livelihood,” the Hangzhou Intermediate People’s Court wrote. “Labor law allows employers to undertake technological changes and upgrade their operations, but it should also take into account the protection of workers’ legitimate rights and interests.”

杭州市中级人民法院在一份判词中写道：“人工智能技术的发展本应用于解放劳动、促进就业、造福民生，劳动法允许用人单位承接技术变革进行更新转型，但亦应顾及保障劳动者的合法权益。”

Just how that will work in practice, and how far the government is actually prepared to go with companies that don’t comply, remains to be seen. But what these rulings underscore is how much China is thinking about the problem.

这种做法在实践中将如何运作，以及政府对不合规企业究竟准备采取多么严厉的措施，目前还有待观察。但这些判决凸显出中国在思考这一问题上投入了多少精力。

Two different A.I. visions

两种迥异的人工智能愿景

The U.S. is letting tech companies take the lead on A.I., and Silicon Valley is focused primarily on one thing: achieving superintelligent machines capable of displacing humans. It’s an approach the Trump administration seems to be broadly on board with, or at least isn’t willing to stop.

美国正让科技公司在人工智能领域占据主导地位，而硅谷主要专注于一件事：实现能够替代人类的超级智能机器。这是一种特朗普政府似乎广泛赞同、或者至少不打算加以阻止的发展模式。

China’s approach is different. China is imagining what it wants its economy and society to look like and how A.I. can help achieve that, Chan, the Brookings expert, says. It wants a self-reliant economy, and so it’s embedding A.I. in every industry — from flashy new businesses like robotics to uncool old industries like steel or cement — to turbocharge productivity so it can never be strategically vulnerable again.

布鲁金斯学会专家陈凯欣指出，中国的做法则不同。中国正在构想其期望的经济和社会版图，以及人工智能如何能协助实现这一目标。中国追求经济的自给自足，因此正将人工智能植入到每一个行业中——从机器人等时髦的新兴产业到钢铁或水泥等传统的老旧工业——以极大地提升生产力，从而确保自身在战略上不再面临脆弱性。

It also wants stability and so, even as it does so, it’s thinking about how to keep humans employed.

与此同时，中国追求稳定，因此即便在推进自动化的过程中，它也在思考如何保障人类的就业。

China’s vision for A.I. is state-driven, aimed at achieving government goals. America’s is company-led — companies like OpenAI are pursuing superintelligence because it fits with their own interests, not because of a broader U.S. strategy, for now.

中国对人工智能的愿景是由国家驱动的，旨在实现政府的目标。美国的愿景则是公司主导的——目前来看，像OpenAI这样的公司追求超级智能是为了符合自身的利益，而不是出于美国的某项宏观国家战略。

The lesson from China isn’t that countries should follow its specific approach to A.I. and jobs, Chan says — Chinese-style control over the tech industry isn’t feasible in most Western countries, for example. But China shows that policymakers have agency over this technology. They can influence its direction, rather than just letting the (A.I.) chips fall where they may.

陈凯欣表示，中国的经验并不是说其他国家应该完全照搬其对待人工智能和就业的具体做法——例如，大多数西方国家根本无法可行地复制中国对科技行业的控制方式。但中国表明，政策制定者对这项技术拥有主动干预的权力。他们能够引导其发展方向，而不是仅仅听任（人工智能对）命运的安排。

Human choices still matter. That’s one reason we’re already seeing two very different visions for the future of A.I., playing out in real time.

人类的选择依然至关重要。这也是为什么我们已经看到两种截然不同的人工智能未来愿景正在现实世界中实时上演。

The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have inflicted deep economic pain on many countries and sent some industries into a tailspin as they struggled with higher prices for energy, fertilizer and chemicals.

伊朗战争以及霍尔木兹海峡事实上的关闭给许多国家造成了严重的经济痛苦，也让一些行业因能源、化肥和化工产品价格大幅上涨而陷入混乱。

It may also have given China a competitive edge.

但这场危机也可能给中国带来了竞争优势。

While the energy shocks and supply chain challenges stemming from the war have posed some challenges for China, the country has largely managed to avoid the kind of inflation spike and cascading economic and political effects that have afflicted many other nations.

尽管战争带来的能源冲击和供应链挑战确实给中国造成了一些困难，但该国基本避免了困扰许多其他国家的通胀飙升以及连锁性的经济和政治后果。

The reason: China’s oil and gas reserves and clean energy supplies have allowed it to avoid the worst of the effects, according to an analysis published Monday by the Asia Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. That is reinforcing the country’s position as a competitive place for manufacturing.

华盛顿咨询机构亚洲集团周一发布的分析报告指出了背后的原因：中国的石油和天然气储备以及清洁能源供应使其得以避开最严重的冲击。这进一步强化了中国的制造业优势。

The firm looked at the effects of disruptions in the strait and how it affected Asian economies and politics. One main takeaway is that the crisis has demonstrated Beijing’s ability to use prices, export controls, subsidies and a managed currency to absorb shocks in its economy.

这家咨询公司研究了霍尔木兹海峡中断的影响及其给亚洲国家带来的经济和政治冲击。其中一个主要结论是，这场危机充分展示了北京运用价格手段、出口管制、补贴政策和汇率管理来消化外部经济冲击的能力。

The disruptions spurred by the United States have also helped Beijing to promote itself to other countries as the stable partner of choice, and accelerated global demand for clean energy technology like solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, industries that China dominates.

美国所引发的这些动荡也助力北京向其他国家展示自己是一个稳定可靠的合作伙伴，并加速了全球对太阳能电池板、电池和电动汽车等清洁能源技术的需求，而这些产业正是中国占据主导地位的领域。

“It’s hard not to come to the conclusion that China is a winner here,” said Kurt Campbell, the chairman and co-founder of the Asia Group and a former deputy U.S. secretary of state in the Biden administration.

“很难不得出中国是这场危机赢家的结论，”亚洲集团董事长兼联合创始人、拜登政府的副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔说。

Disruptions to energy production and shipping stemming from the war in Iran have raised the cost of oil and gas globally over the past three months. Asia, the world’s biggest manufacturing hub, is particularly dependent on the Middle East for energy and industrial products. Asia sources 80 percent of its oil and 90 percent of its natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz.

过去三个月来，伊朗战争引发的能源生产和航运中断已推高了全球油气价格。亚洲是全球最大的制造业中心，对中东能源和工业品的依赖程度尤为突出。亚洲80%的石油和90%的天然气须经霍尔木兹海峡输入。

But the impacts have gone far beyond the energy market. The war has also impeded the production and movement of certain critical products — like naphtha, used to make plastics and chemicals; helium, used in semiconductor factories and M.R.I. machines; and sulfur, which is needed to refine copper, nickel and critical minerals needed in electric vehicle batteries and electrical systems.

但冲击远不止于能源市场。这场战争还严重阻碍了若干关键产品的生产与流通：包括用于生产塑料和化工品的石脑油、半导体工厂和核磁共振设备所需的氦气，以及用于精炼铜、镍及电动汽车电池和电气系统所需关键矿物所不可或缺的硫磺。

The Trump administration says it has reached a peace deal, and traffic had been picking up in the Strait of Hormuz. But over the last few days, Iran and the United States have traded new attacks and threats. Even if the cease-fire were to get back on track, many analysts expect the consequences of the war to linger. The threat of future closures or damage to ships that traverse the strait will push up insurance costs for shippers, and encourage companies to find longer and more expensive routes to avoid it.

特朗普政府表示已达成和平协议，霍尔木兹海峡的交通量也一度回升。但过去几天，伊朗和美国又相互发动了新的攻击和威胁。许多分析师预计，即便停火重回正轨，战争的后续影响仍将持续。未来海峡关闭或船只受损的威胁将推高航运保险成本，并促使企业寻找更长、更昂贵的航线以规避风险。

In China, factories that make products like chemicals, metals and synthetic fibers are still heavily dependent on foreign sources of sulfur, helium and naphtha that come through the Strait of Hormuz.

在中国，生产化工品、金属及合成纤维的工厂仍在相当程度上依赖经霍尔木兹海峡进口的硫磺、氦气和石脑油。

But China has managed to avoid the brunt of many other impacts from higher global energy prices by drawing on its energy reserves and imposing export restrictions and quotas on its oil refineries. China’s oil imports were down by more than 30 percent annually in May, leaving a large supply of global oil for other countries to purchase.

但中国通过动用能源储备、对炼油厂实施出口限制和配额成功避免了全球能源价格上涨带来的许多其他冲击。5月份中国石油进口同比下降超过30%，在国际市场上为其他国家腾出了大量供应空间。

九江的一家炼油厂。战争期间，中国通过动用能源储备维持了炼油厂的运转。

Recent supply chain disruptions pose much more significant challenges for other Asian countries, according to the report, which used A.I. to model numerous scenarios for how governments, companies and other actors would respond to various outcomes in the strait.

报告利用人工智能模拟了政府、企业和其他参与者在霍尔木兹海峡局势出现各种走向时可能采取的反应，指出近期的供应链中断给其他亚洲国家带来了更为严峻的挑战。

In India, rising prices for fertilizer, fuel and food have stoked political opposition to the government. Higher fertilizer costs, combined with prospects for a weak monsoon season, could weigh on the more than 40 percent of India’s work force that are employed in agriculture.

在印度，化肥、燃料和食品价格上涨已激起国内的反政府情绪。化肥成本攀升加上预计季风季降水不足可能会打击到印度超过40%的农业人口。

In Japan, where fuel subsidies are already equivalent to about half the defense budget, higher energy prices could also increase fiscal pressures on the government. Rising prices and shortages of aluminum and naphtha, which are used to make auto parts, have led to production cuts and delays for Japanese carmakers.

在日本，燃料补贴已相当于国防预算的一半左右，能源价格上涨还可能进一步加重政府的财政压力。用于制造汽车零部件的铝和石脑油价格的上涨和短缺已导致日本汽车制造商减产和延期交货。

The political and economic repercussions are even keener in Southeast Asia, where many countries are net energy importers, and governments have turned to emergency borrowing and extended subsidies to buffer their economies.

在东南亚，政治和经济冲击更为严重，因为许多国家都是能源净进口国，各国政府不得不通过紧急借款和延长补贴政策来缓冲经济冲击。

The Philippines has seen labor strikes and declared a national energy emergency. In Indonesia, nickel producers short of sulfuric acid have cut their output, while tourism in Bali has fallen because of higher airfares.

菲律宾已经出现劳工罢工，并宣布进入国家能源紧急状态。在印度尼西亚，由于缺乏硫酸，镍生产商削减了产量，而巴厘岛旅游业则因为机票价格上涨而受到打击。

Amid the energy shock, many Southeast Asian countries are looking to China to provide solar panels, battery energy storage systems and electric vehicles, and China’s exports of those products have soared.

在能源冲击之下，许多东南亚国家开始向中国采购太阳能电池板、电池储能系统和电动汽车，相关产品的出口因此大幅增长。

The energy crisis could also erode the perception of Southeast Asia’s manufacturing competitiveness, slowing a trend where companies have tried to move their factories out of China and set up facilities in other markets, the group’s analysts said.

亚洲集团分析师还指出，能源危机可能削弱外界对东南亚制造业竞争力的信心，进而减缓企业将工厂迁出中国、布局其他市场的趋势。

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a much more limited impact on the United States, given its energy production. But it could have some negative consequences in sectors like A.I. The Hormuz crisis has stressed Asian supply chains that make semiconductors, transformers, energy systems, copper and other materials, which are used to build U.S. data centers, the report said.

鉴于美国自身的能源生产能力，霍尔木兹海峡关闭对美国的影响要小得多。但它仍可能对人工智能等行业带来一些负面后果。报告称，霍尔木兹海峡危机正在向亚洲的半导体、变压器、能源系统、铜材及其他材料的供应链施压，而美国建数据中心少不了这些材料。

The biggest question now is how long the crisis persists.

现在最大的问题是，这场危机会持续多久。

Mr. Campbell said the impact on many countries and supply chains had been “deep and profound,” and could worsen if the crisis continues. Japan, South Korea and others have worked through many of the reserves that have so far buffered them from the economic effects.

坎贝尔表示，这场危机对许多国家和供应链的影响“深重而深远”，如果危机持续下去，情况可能进一步恶化。日本、韩国等国赖以缓冲经济冲击的储备大多已在前期消耗殆尽。

“In many capacities, from jet fuel to a lot of diesel oils, we are basically almost running on empty,” he said.

“从航空燃油到大量柴油，在许多方面，我们基本上都快要见底了，”他说。

Two of the hottest trends in health — longevity medicine and weight loss drugs — are colliding.

健康领域两大炙手可热的趋势——长寿医学与减肥药物——正在发生交汇碰撞。

A theory that GLP-1 medications like Ozempic or Zepbound might help people live longer has been bandied about by biohackers and aging researchers for several years. Online pharmacies already market compounded versions of the drugs to purportedly extend health span. But so far, academic research into the hypothesis has been scant.

关于诺和泰(Ozempic)或Zepbound等GLP-1类药物可能有助于延长寿命的理论在生物黑客和抗衰老研究者圈子里已探讨多年。一些网络药房已开始以延年益寿为噱头，推销这类药物的复合制剂版本。然而，目前关于这一假设的学术研究仍然非常有限。

One of the first studies putting the idea to the test was published last month. It showed that, among people with H.I.V. and lipohypertrophy (fatty deposits that develop under the skin), taking semaglutide (the drug in Ozempic) for eight months seemed to slow participants’ biological aging, according to blood tests that measure age-related biomarkers. People with H.I.V. experience accelerated aging because of the infection, so they are a good population in which to conduct age-related research, said Michael Corley, an associate professor of medicine at the University of California, San Diego’s Stein Institute for Research on Aging, who led the study.

上月发表的其中一项研究首次验证了这一想法。该研究显示，在感染HIV并患有脂肪增生症（皮下脂肪沉积）的人群中，使用司美格鲁肽（诺和泰的有效成分）八个月后，根据检测衰老相关生物标志物的血液检测，受试者的生物年龄衰老速度似乎有所减缓。研究负责人、加州大学圣地亚哥分校施泰因衰老研究所医学副教授迈克尔·科利表示，HIV感染者因感染病毒而经历加速衰老，因此是开展衰老相关研究的理想群体。

The trial was preliminary, but it “provided us an opportunity to say, hey, is there any signal here that warrants all the hype?” Dr. Corley said.

这项试验仍属于初步研究，但科利博士说，它“给了我们一个机会，去验证一下这些追捧到底有没有依据”。

That hype stems from several lines of evidence. First, there is ample research demonstrating that GLP-1s improve people’s metabolic health by helping to regulate insulin and blood sugar levels and causing weight loss. Several studies show that they also benefit cardiovascular, liver and kidney health.

相关热潮源于多方面的证据。首先，大量研究表明，GLP-1药物通过调节胰岛素和血糖水平、促进体重下降来改善人体的代谢健康。多项研究还显示，它们对心血管、肝脏和肾脏健康也有益。

Because the drugs offer protection for conditions like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, which are both among the leading causes of death, it could already be reasonable to call GLP-1s longevity drugs.

由于这些药物能够预防糖尿病和心血管疾病等病，而这些疾病又都是主要的死亡原因，因此，把GLP-1类药物称为“长寿药”似乎已经有一定道理。

“GLP-1 agonists decrease the incidence of diseases that are related to aging and are associated with decreasing life span,” said Dr. Nicolas Musi, the director of the Diabetes and Aging Center at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles. “One would assume that they’re also potentially going to increase life span and be beneficial for longevity,” he added.

洛杉矶西达赛奈医学中心糖尿病与衰老中心主任尼古拉斯·穆西博士表示：“GLP-1受体激动剂能够降低与衰老相关、且会缩短寿命的疾病发生率。”他还说，“人们自然会认为，它们也有可能延长寿命，有利于长寿。”

Another reason experts think these drugs might increase longevity is because of how they affect cellular health. Metabolic health and aging are intricately linked, so drugs that alter the mechanisms involved in metabolism may also affect how the body ages.

专家认为这类药物可能延长寿命的另一个原因在于它们对细胞健康的影响。代谢健康与衰老密切相关，因此改变代谢机制的药物也可能影响身体的衰老过程。

“Many of these pathways that are modulated by diabetes drugs are also central pathways that control aging and longevity,” Dr. Musi said. (Other drugs that treat diabetes, like metformin and a category known as SGLT2 inhibitors, are similarly being studied for longevity, though the evidence so far has been mixed.)

“许多受糖尿病药物调节的通路也是控制衰老和长寿的核心通路，”穆西博士说。（其他治疗糖尿病的药物，如二甲双胍和SGLT2抑制剂类药物，也正在被研究用于长寿，但迄今证据不一。）

GLP-1s appear to influence other fundamental cellular changes that occur with aging, most notably inflammation. “We know they have a significant anti-inflammatory effect, and we know inflammation is one of the things that accelerates aging,” said Dr. Thomas Blackwell, a professor of general internal medicine at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston.

GLP-1药物似乎还影响随衰老发生的其他基本细胞变化，尤其是炎症。“我们知道它们具有显著的抗炎作用，而我们知道炎症是加速衰老的因素之一，”得克萨斯大学医学分部加尔维斯顿校区普通内科学教授托马斯·布莱克韦尔博士说。

All of this sounds promising, but researchers say there’s a huge caveat: Currently little to no data exists on whether the drugs will benefit people who are metabolically healthy.

这一切听起来都很有希望，但研究人员表示，其中存在一个巨大的限制条件：目前几乎没有任何数据表明这些药物是否会让代谢健康的人从中受益。

There is not even data available about whether the medications extend life span in healthy rodents. Dr. Richard Miller, a professor of pathology at the University of Michigan, who runs a large program there testing potential anti-aging drugs in mice, said that’s mainly because of logistics. The currently available GLP-1s either don’t work in mice the same way they do in humans, or they can only be delivered via injection, and years of weekly injections in mice aren’t practical.

甚至连这类药物能否延长健康啮齿动物寿命的数据目前都付之阙如。密歇根大学病理学教授理查德·米勒博士主持着一项大型的小鼠抗衰老药物测试项目，他表示，这种空白主要是操作层面的困难所致：现有GLP-1类药物或者在小鼠体内的作用机制与人类不同，或者只能通过注射给药，而对小鼠进行数年的每周注射并不现实。

There are also concerns that GLP-1s negatively affect health in ways that are especially relevant for aging. Most notably, the drugs can cause some muscle loss, a major issue for older adults that is associated with an increased risk of frailty. Rapid weight loss can also lead to a decline in bone density and an increased risk of osteoporosis.

此外，也有观点担忧GLP-1类药物在若干与衰老高度相关的方面存在负面影响。最值得关注的是，这类药物可能导致一定程度的肌肉流失——这对老年人而言是一大隐患，因为肌肉减少与虚弱风险的上升密切相关。快速减重还可能引发骨密度下降，增加骨质疏松的风险。

A few clinical trials that are testing GLP-1s on several biomarkers of aging, like inflammation levels and biological age clocks, as well as on functional abilities like strength and walking speed, are finally getting underway. At least one of the studies still will not be conducted on healthy older adults, though, since the participants need to meet the criteria for receiving a prescription for the weight loss medications, said Dr. Blackwell, who is leading the trial. But he added that those criteria — for example, a body mass index of 27 or greater and a related health condition, like hypertension — reflect “a whole lot of Americans.”

目前，已有数项临床试验陆续启动，将GLP-1类药物对炎症水平、生物年龄时钟等多项衰老生物标志物，以及肌肉力量、步行速度等功能性指标的影响纳入研究范畴。不过，至少有一项研究无法在健康的老年人中展开，主持试验的布莱克韦尔博士表示，因为受试者必须满足此类减肥药的临床处方标准。但他又补充道，这些条件——例如体重指数(BMI)达到27或以上，并伴有一种相关疾病（如高血压）——实际上涵盖了“相当大一部分美国人”。

For now, experts generally don’t recommend taking the medications off label for longevity. “In patients that are otherwise healthy, at this point, I think it’s premature, because there are no data justifying it from preclinical or clinical studies,” Dr. Musi said.

目前，专家普遍不建议为了延寿而超说明书使用这些药物。穆西博士表示：“对于其他方面都很健康的人来说，我认为现在这么做还为时过早，因为无论是临床前研究还是临床研究，都没有数据为此提供依据。”

In Dr. Blackwell’s case, the message seemed to be, do as I say, not as I do. He has been taking tirzepatide (the drug in Zepbound) for the past year with the goal of slowing aging.

至于布莱克韦尔博士，他的态度似乎是“听我讲就好，不要看我怎么做”。为了延缓衰老，他已经服用替西帕肽（即Zepbound中的活性成分）一年有余。

“Do I know that that’s the right thing? I do not,” he said. “Do I recommend that for patients? I do not.”

“我是否知道这么做是对的？我不知道，”他说。“我是否会向患者推荐这么做？不会。”

“This is my own personal decision,” he added.

他补充道：“这是我个人的决定。”

Guo Wengui, a Chinese businessman who transformed himself from a Beijing insider into an anti-Communist crusader and ally of the American far right, was sentenced to 30 years in prison on Monday for defrauding investors, including many of his own fervent supporters, of hundreds of millions of dollars.

中国商人郭文贵周一被判处30年监禁。他曾是北京的内部知情人士，后转变为反共斗士和美国极右翼盟友；他被控诈骗投资者数亿美元，其中包括许多他的狂热支持者。

Mr. Guo, who had made a fortune in Beijing as a real estate developer and had forged an alliance with a corrupt intelligence official there, fled China in 2015, settling in a $68 million Manhattan penthouse overlooking Central Park. There, he took to social media and YouTube, denouncing the Chinese Communist Party and luring thousands of followers convinced that Mr. Guo would harness his wealth and inside knowledge to bring democracy to China.

郭文贵在北京依靠房地产开发致富，并与当地一名腐败的情报官员结成了同盟。他于2015年逃离中国，定居在曼哈顿一座价值6800万美元、可俯瞰中央公园的顶层公寓中。在那里，他利用社交媒体和视频网站谴责中国共产党，吸引了成千上万名追随者，他们坚信郭文贵将利用其财富和内部情报为中国带来民主。

He took them into his confidence and they showered him with money, buying shares in his media company, dubious club memberships and a fake cryptocurrency that he promised would make them all rich beyond belief.

他取得了他们的信任，追随者给了他大笔的金钱用于购买其媒体公司的股票、可疑的俱乐部会员资格以及一种假加密货币，他曾承诺这种货币会让他们所有人变得超乎想象地富有。

Mr. Guo, also known as Miles Kwok, used that money to fund a lavish lifestyle, buying an estate in rural New Jersey, a mansion in Greenwich, Conn., and a $4.4 million Bugatti supercar. He was arrested at his Manhattan apartment in 2023 and convicted in federal court the following year of racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and money-laundering conspiracy.

又名迈尔斯·郭的郭文贵利用这些资金来维持其奢华的生活方式，在新泽西州乡间置业，在康涅狄格州格林尼治购买了一座大宅，还有一辆440万美元的布加迪超级跑车。他于2023年在其曼哈顿的公寓内被捕，并于次年在联邦法院被判串谋勒索、证券欺诈和串谋洗钱罪成立。

Judge Analisa Torres of Federal District Court in Manhattan said on Monday that Mr. Guo had “preyed on people seeking to bring democracy to China,” causing them “substantial financial and emotional harm.”

曼哈顿联邦地区法院法官阿娜丽莎·托雷斯周一表示，郭文贵“掠夺了那些寻求为中国带来民主的人”，给他们造成了“重大的经济和情感伤害”。

She handed down a 30-year sentence, the punishment requested by federal prosecutors, who had likened Mr. Guo’s crimes to those of the notorious fraudster Bernard Madoff.

她判处其30年监禁，这是联邦检察官所寻求的惩罚，检方将郭文贵的罪行与臭名昭著的欺诈者伯纳德·麦道夫相提并论。

Mr. Guo, who is about 58, looked a diminished man. Once trim and smartly dressed in his signature Brioni suits, he entered the courtroom in a two-piece tan prison uniform. He appeared to have gained weight in the years since his trial. His dark, close-cropped hair had grayed.

现年58岁上下的郭文贵看起来有些落魄。他曾经身材瘦削，总是精心地穿着那身标志性的Brioni套装，如今他穿一套两件式的棕色囚服进入法庭。在案件开审以来的几年里，他看起来体重有所增加。原本修剪得很短的黑色头发已经发白。

His sentencing, originally scheduled for November 2024, was delayed after the former billionaire, who had earlier declared bankruptcy, asked for new, court-appointed lawyers.

他的宣判原定于2024年11月进行，但在这位先前已宣布破产的前亿万富翁要求更换法院指定的律师后推迟。

The Monday hearing also started late, after Mr. Guo was taken to the hospital early that morning for a fall. He claimed to have been vomiting and bleeding and spent most of his remarks — possibly the last public address he will make for a quarter-century or more — in a rant against a prosecutor who had called him a malingerer.

周一的听证会也有所延迟，因为郭文贵在当天清晨因摔倒被送往医院。他声称自己一直在呕吐和流血，其大部分发言——这可能是他在未来四分之一个世纪或更长时间里发表的最后一次公开讲话——是在斥责称他装病的检察官。

After settling in Manhattan in 2015, Mr. Guo moved quickly to build a political network in America akin to the one he had left in China. By 2017, he was a member of Mar-a-Lago, the newly elected president’s resort in Palm Beach, Fla.

2015年在曼哈顿定居后，郭文贵迅速行动，在美国建立了一个类似于他在中国那样的政治网络。到2017年，他成为了马阿拉歌庄园的会员，马阿拉歌是新当选总统在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的度假地。

Before his arrest, Mr. Guo built political and business connections with some powerful people in President Trump’s orbit. Among them was Stephen K. Bannon, the former Trump aide, who had a $1 million consulting contract to advise Mr. Guo and his media company.

在被捕之前，郭文贵与特朗普总统身边的一些权势人物建立起了政治和商业联系。其中包括前特朗普助手史蒂芬·K·班农，他签署了一份价值100万美元的咨询合同，为郭文贵及其媒体公司提供顾问服务。

郭先生与特朗普总统圈子里的权势人物建立起了联系，其中包括史蒂芬·K·班农。

The two men formed an alliance, with Mr. Guo boosting Mr. Bannon’s podcast on his Chinese-language media network. Mr. Bannon was by his side in June 2020 when Mr. Guo, with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop, declared the formation of the “New Federal State of China.” Peter Navarro, another Trump aide, would be the shadow government’s “international ambassador.”

这两人结成了联盟，郭文贵在其中文媒体网络上推介班农的播客。2020年6月，以自由女神像为背景，郭文贵宣布成立“新中国联邦”，班农当时就站在他身边。另一位特朗普助手彼得·纳瓦罗将担任该影子政府的“国际大使”。

“From this day forward, the Communist Party is not the legal government of China!” Mr. Guo declared.

“从今天起，共产党在中国不再是合法政府！”郭文贵宣称。

A few months later, he released a song called “Take Down the C.C.P.,” which briefly held the No. 1 spot on the iTunes chart.

几个月后，他发行了一首名为《推翻共产党》(Take Down the CCP)的歌曲，一度登顶iTunes排行榜榜首。

While aboard Mr. Guo’s yacht, the Lady May, in August 2020, Mr. Bannon was arrested on charges of defrauding investors. (Mr. Trump eventually pardoned him.)

2020年8月，在郭文贵的游艇“梅夫人号”上，班农因涉嫌诈骗投资者的指控被捕。（特朗普最终赦免了他。）

Later in 2020, Mr. Guo inserted himself deep into the presidential campaign. It was on his media network that material from a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden, the soon-to-be president’s son, first appeared. On Oct. 10 that year, Mr. Guo hosted Mr. Bannon and Rudolph W. Giuliani, the Trump lawyer and former New York mayor, at his Manhattan penthouse for dinner and cigars, The New York Times reported.

后来在2020年晚些时候，郭文贵深度介入了总统竞选。正是在他的媒体网络上，即将成为总统之子的亨特·拜登的笔记本电脑材料首次曝光。据《纽约时报》报道，当年10月10日，郭文贵在其曼哈顿顶层公寓宴请了班农和特朗普的律师、前纽约市长鲁道夫·W·朱利安尼，共同享用晚餐和雪茄。

But Trump lost that election, and in the years that followed, Mr. Guo focused on drawing funds from his growing ranks of supporters. Ryan B. Finkel, one of the prosecutors, said that 235 victims had given statements, many of them claiming they had lost their life savings. “I lost my will to live,” one victim said.

但特朗普输掉了那场选举，随后几年里，郭文贵专注于从他日益壮大的支持者群体中吸取资金。检察官之一瑞安·B·芬克尔表示，已有235名受害者提供了陈述，其中许多人声称他们失去了毕生的积蓄。“我失去了活下去的意志，”一名受害者说。

Judge Torres said the U.S. government would dispose of the assets it had seized after Mr. Guo’s arrest — including the mansions, the supercar and cash — and use the money to repay victims.

托雷斯表示，美国政府将处置在郭文贵被捕后没收的资产——包括豪宅、超级跑车和现金——并利用这些资金来偿还受害者。

Despite Mr. Guo’s political alliances, a presidential pardon appears unlikely. In 2017, Mr. Trump considered deporting Mr. Guo to China, where he faced a slew of criminal charges stemming from his alliance with a high-ranking Chinese spymaster, Ma Jian, whose arrest on corruption charges in early 2015 had prompted Mr. Guo to flee the country.

尽管郭文贵有政治盟友，但获得总统特赦的可能性似乎微乎其微。在2017年，特朗普曾考虑将郭文贵驱逐回中国，当时他在中国面临着一系列源于他与高级情报官员马建结盟的刑事指控，马建于2015年初因腐败指控被捕，促使郭文贵逃离了该国。

On both sides of the Pacific, Mr. Guo practiced a ruthless form of business.

在太平洋两岸，郭文贵都践行一种残酷的商业手段。

In China, when a Beijing vice mayor stood in the way of Mr. Guo’s developing a plot of land adjacent to the site of the 2008 Summer Olympic Games, Mr. Guo obtained a tape showing the official having sex with a mistress. The official was ousted and given a suspended death sentence for bribery.

在中国，当一位北京副市长阻碍郭文贵开发紧邻2008年夏季奥运会场馆的一块土地时，郭文贵获取了一盘录像带，显示该官员与一名情妇发生性关系。该官员随后被罢免，并因受贿罪被判处死缓。

In America, supporters of Mr. Guo hounded a bankruptcy trustee overseeing the liquidation of his properties, accusing the trustee of being a tool of the Chinese Communist Party. They even gathered outside the Massachusetts school where the daughter of the trustee worked, holding signs such as one that read: “How does living off your father’s attempted extortion of a Chinese dissident make you feel?”

在美国，郭文贵的支持者围攻一名负责清算其财产的破产受托人，指责该受托人是中国共产党的工具。他们甚至聚集在该受托人女儿工作的麻萨诸塞州学校外，手中的标语写着：“靠你父亲企图勒索一名中国异见人士发家致富，你感觉如何？”

Mr. Guo saved his choicest words for senior Chinese leaders and their families. In early 2017, after two years of keeping a low profile, Mr. Guo burst onto social media, accusing the Communist Party’s ruling elite of corruption.

郭文贵将他最尖锐的措辞留给了中国高级领导人及其家人。2017年初，在保持了两年的低调后，郭文贵突然在社交媒体上发声，指责共产党的执政精英存在腐败。

That was part of a long effort to reshape himself as a principled political activist, and during the trial, his lawyers asserted that his actions had been in pursuit of a democratic China.

这是他将自己重塑为一个有原则的政治活动家的长期努力的一部分。在审判期间，他的律师声称他的行动是为了追求一个民主的中国。

It didn’t sway the jury.

这并没能动摇陪审团。

“Is Miles Guo a real political activist or not? I don’t know, I don’t care and neither should you,” Juliana Murray, an assistant U.S. attorney, told the jury as the trial was wrapping up. “He’s an opportunist. He’s a fraudster.”

“迈尔斯·郭到底是不是一个真正的政治活动家？我不知道，我不在乎，陪审团也无需在乎，”联邦助理检察官朱莉安娜·默里在审判即将结束时告诉陪审团。“他是一个机会主义者。他是一个欺诈者。”

Still, dozens of Mr. Guo’s supporters packed the courtroom on Monday, while more than 100 others watched in an overflow room. After he was sentenced, Mr. Guo turned around and smiled at them. Many clasped their hands in a gesture of respect.

尽管如此，周一仍有数十名郭文贵的支持者挤满了法庭，另有100多人在旁听室观看了直播。在他被判刑后，郭文贵转过身向他们微笑。许多人双手合十以示敬意。

As he was escorted out, Mr. Guo thanked them and shouted in Mandarin, “It has only just started!”

在被押送出场时，郭文贵向他们表示感谢，并用中文高喊：“一切都是刚刚开始！”

Bitter foreign policy debates over Israel and Iran are fracturing the Democratic and Republican parties, creating powerful wedge issues that are reshaping the battle for control of Congress this year and could affect the 2028 presidential election.

围绕以色列与伊朗问题的激烈外交政策之争正在撕裂民主党和共和党，形成强大的分裂议题，重塑着今年国会控制权的争夺战局，并有可能波及2028年总统大选。

The dispute among Democrats, in particular, has already left a lasting mark on the midterms. Israel’s growing unpopularity since the war in Gaza began nearly three years ago emerged as a dominant force last week, when two incumbent House Democrats in New York lost to primary challengers who had cast them as insufficiently critical of the U.S. ally.

尤其是在民主党内部，分歧已对中期选举产生深远影响。自近三年前加沙战争爆发以来，以色列在美国越来越不受欢迎。上周，这种情绪成为一股主导力量：纽约州两名众议院现任民主党议员在初选中败给了挑战者，后者指责他们对这个美国盟友的批评力度不够。

And both U.S. support of Israel and the war with Iran continue to cause fissures inside the Republican Party, and particularly within President Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. Isolationists who hailed Mr. Trump’s campaign promise to avoid foreign wars say they feel betrayed by his intervention in Iran and the domestic consequence: spiking prices.

与此同时，美国对以色列的支持以及对伊朗的战争也在共和党内部——尤其是在特朗普总统的“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动阵营中——持续制造裂痕。曾对特朗普“避免卷入海外战争”竞选承诺寄予厚望的孤立主义者们表示，特朗普军事干预伊朗及其在国内引发的后果——物价飞涨——让他们感到自己遭到了背叛。

Recently, another front has emerged against the president. Now that he is negotiating with Iran, he faces backlash from hawks within the party who believe he did not achieve his goal of crippling the country’s military and nuclear capabilities, let alone end its hard-line regime.

最近，特朗普又面临来自另一战线的压力。眼下他正在与伊朗谈判，却招致党内鹰派的不满，后者认为他未能实现摧毁伊朗军事与核能力的目标，更遑论终结其强硬政权。

The rifts are producing unsettling election outcomes in a critical midterm year in which control of Congress, and the fate of Mr. Trump’s agenda, are at stake. Some centrist Democrats are losing, with more at risk in upcoming races. Some Republican voters are staying home, a potential disaster for their party if the trend carries to November.

在这个国会控制权和特朗普议程的命运皆悬而未决的关键中期选举年，这些裂痕正引发令人不安的选举结果。一些中间派民主党人正在落败，还有更多人将在接下来的竞选中面临风险；一些共和党选民则选择弃票，倘若这一趋势延续至11月，对该党而言将是一场潜在灾难。

All of those dynamics are emboldening critics who want to permanently reshape their respective parties’ ideologies and policy platforms — and who are planning to take that fight to the 2028 presidential election.

所有这些动态都在为那些希望彻底重塑各自政党意识形态与政策路线的批评者们壮胆——他们正盘算着将这场较量一直延续到2028年总统大选。

The powers within both parties seem at a loss on how to handle their increasingly restive and unpredictable bases.

两党的领导层似乎都对如何应对日益躁动不安、难以预测的基层选民感到束手无策。

Democrats were especially shaken by the insurgent left’s success in New York last Tuesday. Voters nominated two democratic socialists who embraced anti-Israel positions and rhetoric.

上周二纽约州左翼反建制派的成功尤其令民主党人震惊。选民提名了两位持反以色列立场和言论的民主社会主义者。

“We’ve got to figure out a way so it doesn’t blow the party apart,” said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank. Mr. Bennett described a Democratic “freakout” following the results on Tuesday over whether the rise of hard-left candidates would repel Jewish and moderate voters.

中间派民主党智库“第三道路”的联合创始人马特·贝内特说：“我们必须找到办法，不让这件事把民主党彻底撕裂。”贝内特表示，周二的选举结果引发了民主党内部的“恐慌”，因为他们担心强硬左翼候选人的崛起会把犹太选民和温和派选民赶跑。

Republicans are experiencing divisions of their own over the party’s support for Israel. The Iran war exacerbated underlying tensions among Republicans over what “America First,” Mr. Trump’s resonant but ill-defined campaign message, means when it comes to backing Israel in conflicts in the Middle East.

共和党也在以色列问题上经历着分裂。伊朗战争加剧了共和党内部潜藏的紧张关系——特朗普那句深入人心却语焉不详的竞选口号“美国优先”落实到中东冲突中对以色列的支持问题上，究竟意味着什么。

“It’s much more fun, I think — for most of us who lean right or right-leaning independents — to be fighting with the left,” the podcaster Megyn Kelly told Vice President JD Vance earlier this month. “But it’s been kind of civil war-y over on the conservative team since this whole thing got launched.”

“我想，对我们大多数倾向右翼或偏右的独立人士来说，跟左派斗要有意思得多，”播客主持人梅根·凯利本月早些时候对副总统万斯说。“但自从这件事开始以来，保守派阵营内部有点内战的味道了。”

Still, Mr. Trump’s hold on his party remains dominant, with Republicans he has derided as insufficiently loyal losing their primaries. That grip has tamped down some internal party conflict.

尽管如此，特朗普对共和党的控制力仍然强劲，被他斥为不够忠诚的共和党人在初选中纷纷落败。这种控制力在一定程度上将党内冲突压了下来。

Decisive primary outcomes

初选结果意义重大

Polls show that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has radically changed attitudes among Democratic voters, who are now largely unified in sympathizing with the Palestinians. Many leading Democrats are now sharply more critical of Israel.

民调显示，巴以冲突已从根本上改变了民主党选民的态度，他们如今普遍对巴勒斯坦人抱以同情，许多民主党领袖如今对以色列的批评也明显加剧。

But the pro-Palestinian rhetoric from far-left candidates still makes some mainstream Democrats uncomfortable. Some of it, said Scott Stringer, a Democratic former New York City comptroller, amounts to “blatant antisemitism.”

但极左翼候选人的亲巴勒斯坦言论仍让一些主流民主党人感到不安。纽约市前主计长、民主党人斯科特·斯特林格表示，其中一些言论无异于“赤裸裸的反犹主义”。

“If there is a group of people who may be having temporary electoral success who believe the path forward is to use antisemitism as a wedge,” he said, “then there’s going to be a battle within the Democratic Party.”

他说：“如果有一批人可能暂时在选举中取得成功，并坚信前进的道路就是利用反犹主义作为楔子，那么民主党内部势必会爆发一场斗争。”

The tensions have produced decisive primary outcomes only in states or congressional districts that are not competitive. The New York City races are likely to turn existing Democratic districts only a darker shade of blue.

这些紧张关系目前只在那些竞争不激烈的州或选区产生了一边倒的初选结果。纽约市的竞选很可能只是让现有的民主党选区变得更蓝。

The danger for establishment Democrats is for hard-left candidates to win competitive primaries and then struggle to appeal to more ideologically diverse voters in the general election, when economic issues are expected to drive voter choices.

对于民主党建制派来说，真正的危险在于：强硬左翼候选人赢得竞争激烈的初选，却无法在大选中吸引意识形态更加多元的选民——而届时，经济议题预计将主导选民的投票取向。

Mr. Trump has already branded New York’s democratic socialist victors, who had the support of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, as “communists.”

特朗普已经给得到纽约市长马姆达尼支持、在初选中获胜的民主社会主义者贴上“共产主义者”的标签。

“Donald Trump wants to portray the Democratic Party as either having been overtaken by D.S.A. or Mayor Mamdani, and that is not the case,” said Halie Soifer, chief executive of the Jewish Democratic Council of America. The New York candidates, she added, “could not win anywhere else.”

“唐纳德·特朗普想把民主党描绘成被民主社会主义者或市长马姆达尼接管的政党，但事实并非如此，”美国犹太民主委员会首席执行官哈莉·索伊弗说。她补充道，纽约的这些候选人“换到其他任何地方都赢不了”。

That has not stopped them from trying. Far-left progressives are on the ballot in several states, including Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin, trying to challenge the conventional wisdom that extremists cannot win battleground races. The left argues that it is time to try a different tack that could win over some Trump voters — a theory that will not be tested until the fall.

然而，这并没有阻止他们继续尝试。极左进步派候选人已经出现在包括科罗拉多、密歇根和威斯康星等多个州的选票上，试图挑战“极端派无法赢得摇摆州选举”的传统观念。左派认为，是时候尝试一种新策略了，这种策略或许能争取到部分特朗普选民，但这一理论要到秋季选举时才能接受检验。

Declining Enthusiasm Within MAGA

MAGA阵营热情消退

Overall, Republicans still overwhelmingly support Mr. Trump, polls show. Most of his endorsed candidates have won their primaries, with a few notable exceptions in governor’s races.

民调显示，整体而言，共和党人依然压倒性地支持特朗普。他背书的多数候选人都在初选中获胜，只有少数几个州长竞选出现了引人注目的例外。

今年4月，进步派候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士在安娜堡的一场竞选活动中发表演讲。他正在寻求密歇根州民主党联邦参议员提名。

And the generational divide on foreign policy is stark: 53 percent of Republican voters under 45 disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the Iran war, according to a New York Times/Siena poll conducted in May, compared with the 75 percent of older Republicans who approve.

而共和党内部在外交政策上的代际分歧十分明显。根据《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院5月进行的一项民调，45岁以下的共和党选民中，有53%不赞成特朗普处理伊朗战争的方式；相比之下，75%的年长共和党人表示支持。

Republicans were forced to grapple with some of those questions beginning with Mr. Trump’s ascent in 2016. Over time, the party transformed into the president’s pro-tariff, anti-interventionist image, bringing into the Republican fold new voters who found those positions appealing.

自2016年特朗普崛起以来，共和党人便不得不开始正视这类问题。随着时间推移，共和党逐渐转变为一个符合特朗普形象的政党——支持关税、反对军事干预，并吸纳了大量被这些立场吸引的新选民。

That transformation made Mr. Trump’s support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and his military campaign in Gaza, and even more so the Trump administration’s decision to attack Iran, hard for some MAGA voters to swallow.

对一些MAGA选民来说，这一转变使得特朗普对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡及其在加沙军事行动的支持——更不用说特朗普政府攻击伊朗的决定——让人难以接受。

On the same day that the two democratic socialists won in New York City last week, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former congresswoman and firebrand, announced that she was leaving the Republican Party because of her opposition to the Iran war. She followed the conservative media giant Tucker Carlson, who also left the party, citing the same reason.

就在上周两位民主社会主义者在纽约市获胜的同一天，前国会众议员、以言辞激烈著称的玛乔丽·泰勒·格林宣布，自己因反对伊朗战争而退出共和党。在她之前，保守派媒体名人塔克·卡尔森也以同样理由退党。

In April, Mr. Trump lumped Ms. Kelly with Mr. Carlson, both former Fox News hosts, and other right-wing podcasters who have been critical of the Iran war, calling them “nut jobs” and “troublemakers.” But Mr. Vance’s appearance on Ms. Kelly’s popular podcast to defend the administration’s preliminary peace deal with Iran showed that the White House was attuned to the divisions over foreign policy on the right.

今年4月，特朗普将凯利和卡尔森（两人均为福克斯新闻前主持人）以及其他批评伊朗战争的右翼播客主持人归为“疯子”和“麻烦制造者”。但万斯出现在凯利的热门播客上为政府与伊朗的初步和平协议辩护，表明白宫注意到了右翼内部围绕外交政策上的分歧。

For Ms. Kelly and Mr. Carlson, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran represented a betrayal of Mr. Trump’s promises to avoid Middle East entanglements, and highlighted Israel’s exceptional status in American foreign policy. Even as Mr. Trump was turning away from traditional U.S. allies in Europe and Asia, he was doubling down on the partnership with Israel.

对于凯利和卡尔森来说，美以对伊朗的战争背叛了特朗普避免卷入中东事务的承诺，也凸显了以色列在美国外交政策中的特殊地位。尽管特朗普正在疏远美国在欧洲和亚洲的传统盟友，他却进一步强化了与以色列的伙伴关系。

The electoral consequences of the intraparty fight remain far from clear. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, the Iran war’s loudest Republican critic in the House, lost in May to a primary challenger who was heavily backed by pro-Israel donors.

党内之争对选情的影响仍远未明朗。肯塔基州众议员托马斯·马西——众议院里对伊朗战争最响亮的共和党批评者——在5月的初选中输给了一位获得亲以色列捐款人大力支持的挑战者。

The depth of the fissures in the two parties will not become fully apparent until after the midterms, depending on how candidates representing anti-interventionist views in both parties do — and perhaps not until 2028 presidential contenders start campaigning. A presidential election, particularly in a year with no incumbent, more naturally leads to discussions about big policy questions and America’s role in the world.

两党内部裂痕究竟有多深恐怕要等到中期选举结束、看清两党反干涉主义代表人物的表现之后才会真正显现——甚至可能要等到2028年总统候选人开始竞选造势之时。毕竟，总统大选——尤其是在没有在任总统寻求连任的年份——往往更容易引发关于重大政策议题及美国全球角色的讨论。

“The intraparty fractures are really going to be interesting to watch,” Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster, said. “The MAGA America First noninterventionists and progressive Democrats are not going to vote the same way on Election Day, but they’re functionally aligned.”

共和党民调专家罗伯特·布利扎德说：“观察这些党内裂痕会非常有意思。MAGA中的‘美国优先’反干预主义者和进步派民主党人在选举日不会投票给同一批候选人，但实际效果上他们站到了一边。”

In a major expansion of presidential authority, the Supreme Court cleared the way on Monday for President Trump to fire independent government regulators despite federal laws meant to protect their jobs. But the justices carved out an exception for the Federal Reserve, preventing the president from immediately removing one governor, Lisa D. Cook, from the powerful central bank.

周一，最高法院为特朗普总统扫清了道路，允许他解雇独立政府监管机构官员，尽管有联邦法律旨在保护他们的职位，这是总统权力的一次重大扩张。但大法官们为美联储保留了一个例外，阻止总统立即罢免这一掌握大权的中央银行的一位理事丽莎·D·库克。

The court’s 6-to-3 ruling to broadly allow the firings, with the three liberal justices dissenting, represented a significant shift in power from Congress to the president, and could drastically change the federal government’s structure by giving the president more control over independent agencies.

法院以6比3的裁决对此类解雇给予宽泛的许可，三名自由派大法官持异议。这代表着权力从国会向总统的重大转移，并可能通过赋予总统对独立机构的更多控制权，彻底改变联邦政府的结构。

The case tested whether Mr. Trump could oust Rebecca Kelly Slaughter, a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, simply because she did not align with his agenda, despite a law that says the president can remove commissioners only for “inefficiency, neglect of duty or malfeasance in office.”

该案检验了特朗普是否能仅仅因为联邦贸易委员会民主党成员丽贝卡·凯利·斯劳特拒不遵从其意愿而将其罢免，尽管法律规定总统只能因“效率低下、玩忽职守或渎职”才能罢免委员。

But the decision has implications for more than two dozen agencies — including those charged with protecting consumers, workers, the environment and nuclear safety — that have traditionally been insulated from presidential control.

但这一决定将影响到二十多个政府部门——包括那些负责保护消费者、工人、环境和核安全的机构，这些机构传统上一直不受总统控制。

In a social media post, Mr. Trump celebrated what he called a “BIG WIN,” adding that it was a “Historic and Unprecedented Ruling, one of the most important ever given with respect to Presidential Powers.”

特朗普在社交媒体帖子中庆祝他所谓的“大胜”，并说这是“历史性和前所未有的裁决，是关于总统权力最重要裁决之一”。

In a separate decision, however, the court voted 5 to 4 to block the president from ousting Ms. Cook.

不过，最高法另一项裁决以5比4表决阻止总统罢免库克。

While the ruling decided a narrow procedural question, the majority opinion pointed to the uniquely independent nature of the central bank.

虽然该裁决仅涉及一个狭窄的程序性问题，但多数意见指出了中央银行独特的独立性质。

Former top Fed and Treasury officials and Ms. Cook’s legal team had warned the Supreme Court that allowing Mr. Trump to remove her while litigation was underway would spur economic turmoil and undermine the longstanding autonomy of the central bank.

前美联储和财政部高级官员以及库克的法律团队曾警告最高法院，如果允许特朗普在诉讼进行期间罢免她，将引发经济动荡，并削弱中央银行长期以来的自主权。

Unlike with other regulators, Mr. Trump had accepted that a president could only fire Fed governors for cause. He had accused Ms. Cook of engaging in mortgage fraud, and said he could dismiss her on those grounds. The justices, however, found that Ms. Cook had not been given an opportunity to refute those unproven allegations.

与其他监管机构不同，特朗普承认总统只能因正当理由解雇美联储理事。他指控库克从事抵押贷款欺诈，并表示他可以以此为由将其解雇。然而，大法官们认为，库克并未获得机会反驳这些未经证实的指控。

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who wrote the majority opinions in both cases on Monday, rejected what he described as the administration’s “halfhearted” contention that Ms. Cook had received a fair or due process when the president posted about her removal on social media.

周一撰写了两案多数意见的首席大法官小约翰·G·罗伯茨驳斥了政府“敷衍了事”的论点，即所谓库克在总统通过社交媒体宣布解雇她时已获得公平或程序正义。

“That will not do,” wrote the chief justice, who was joined by Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh and the three liberal justices. “At minimum, Cook was entitled to some explanation of the evidence at issue, some avenue for a response.”

“这是行不通的，”首席大法官写道，他的意见得到布雷特·M·卡瓦诺大法官和三位自由派大法官的赞同。“至少，库克有权获得对相关证据的某种解释，以及某种回应途径。”

Ms. Cook said in a statement Monday that the president’s move to fire her was “an attempt to remove me on a manufactured pretext because I refused to bow to political pressure and continued to set interest rates based only on what would best serve the American people.”

库克周一在一份声明中表示，总统解雇她的举动“是试图以捏造的借口将我移除，因为我拒绝屈从于政治压力，并继续仅基于什么最有利于美国人民来设定利率”。

But the court’s ruling in her favor was limited. The justices allowed her to remain on the job while permitting Mr. Trump to continue to seek her removal as long as Ms. Cook had an opportunity to respond to the charges against her. At that point, courts could “assess the validity and sufficiency of such charges,” the chief justice wrote.

但法院对她有利的裁决是有限的。大法官们允许她继续留任，同时允许特朗普继续寻求罢免她，只要库克有机会回应针对她的指控即可。届时，法院可以“评估此类指控的有效性和充分性”，首席大法官写道。

The president vowed in a social media post to press ahead with his efforts to oust Ms. Cook.

总统在社交媒体帖子中发誓要继续努力罢免库克。

The court distinguished between what it called the “unique role” of the Federal Reserve and other types of government agencies, where the court’s majority said the president needed the flexibility to remove officials whose views did not align with the administration’s.

法院区分了它所谓的美联储的“独特角色”与其他类型政府机构，在其他机构中，法院多数意见认为总统需要有罢免观点与政府相左的官员的决策空间。

In the F.T.C. case, the justices cast aside a 90-year precedent that had prevented presidents from removing independent regulators without cause and solely over policy disagreements.

在联邦贸易委员会案中，大法官们抛弃了90年的先例，该先例曾阻止总统没有正当理由、仅因政策分歧罢免独立监管者。

A majority of the justices have long been sympathetic to the argument the Trump administration was making that the Constitution vests all executive power in the president, and that he or she must be able to control everything the executive branch does.

长期以来，大多数大法官一直同情特朗普政府提出的论点，即宪法将所有行政权力赋予总统，他或她必须能够控制行政部门所做的一切。

Several justices had for years said that they were eager to overturn the 1935 precedent, Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, that has protected independent agencies. That case also involved the F.T.C.

几名大法官多年来一直表示，他们渴望推翻1935年汉弗莱遗产管理人案的先例，该先例保护了独立机构。该案同样涉及联邦贸易委员会。

In Ms. Slaughter’s case at the F.T.C., the longstanding project of the conservative legal movement to overturn the precedent merged with Mr. Trump’s desire to oust officials from across the government.

在斯劳特的联邦贸易委员会案中，长期致力于推翻该先例的保守派法律运动与希望罢免政府各部门官员的特朗普站在了同一条战线上。

In the court’s decision on Monday, the chief justice said that “neither Congress nor the courts may saddle” the president with executive branch officials “with whom he cannot work.”

在法院周一的决定中，首席大法官表示，“国会或法院都不得将难以共事”的行政部门官员“强加”给总统。

The majority said the modern F.T.C. has accumulated powers that the Constitution reserved for the president under some 80 statutes, including the enforcement of rules against private parties and the collection of billions of dollars in civil penalties.

多数意见称，现代联邦贸易委员会已通过约80项法规积累了宪法保留给总统的权力，包括对私人主体执行规则和收取数十亿美元民事罚款。

The commission Ms. Slaughter was appointed to “unquestionably exercises executive power, and must therefore be controlled by the chief executive,” the chief justice wrote, saying that it follows the president was “entitled to cut her tenure short.”

首席大法官写道，斯劳特被任命的委员会“无疑在行使行政权力，因此必须由行政首脑控制”，并表示因此总统“有权缩短她的任期”。

The court’s decision left open questions about employment protections that apply to members of the civil service and judges on courts housed in the executive branch.

法院的决定留下了一个疑问，即公务员以及行政部门下属法院的法官应得到怎样的雇员保护。

Justice Sonia Sotomayor read a lengthy summary of her dissent from the bench, warning that the court’s decision would unleash chaos.

索尼娅·索托马约尔大法官当庭宣读了她的不同意见书的一份长篇摘要，警告称法院的决定将释放混乱。

Independent agencies will be “transformed in ways that those who created them never could have expected and actively sought to avoid, fundamentally recalibrating the balance of power in this country in the process,” she wrote, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson.

独立机构将“以创建它们的人从未预料到且积极试图避免的方式被改造，从而从根本上重新校准这个国家的权力平衡，”她写道，她的意见得到埃琳娜·卡根和凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊大法官的赞同。

As a result of the court’s decision, she added, the president would have far greater power to influence independent agencies charged with overseeing vast areas of American life, including the safety of workplaces and consumer products.

她补充说，由于法院的决定，总统将拥有更大的权力来影响负责监督美国生活广大领域的独立机构，包括工作场所和消费品的安全。

“It is a power, however, that neither the people, nor Congress, nor the Constitution bestowed upon him,” Justice Sotomayor wrote across nearly 50 pages. “In granting the president this unbridled authority, the court upends its precedent, misconstrues our history and sheds any pretense of judicial modesty.”

“然而，这是一种人民、国会或宪法都没有赋予他的权力，”索托马约尔大法官在近50页的意见中写道。“在赋予总统这种不受约束的权威时，法院推翻了其先例，曲解了我们的历史，并放弃了任何司法谦逊的伪装。”

In a statement, Ms. Slaughter said independent agencies like the F.T.C. were created to act as watchdogs of powerful corporations, without interference by the president.

斯劳特在一份声明中表示，像联邦贸易委员会这样的独立机构是为了充当强大企业的监督者而创建的，不受总统干预。

“Today’s ruling makes it possible for presidents to fire watchdogs who won’t put politics over principle, and replace them with lap dogs,” Slaughter said. “It’s a recipe for corruption. Working families will pay the price.”

“今天的裁决使总统有可能解雇那些不愿将政治置于原则之上的监督者，并用哈巴狗取代他们，”斯劳特说。“这是通向腐败的路。工薪家庭将付出代价。”

When Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick met with Kazakhstan’s president at the St. Regis Hotel last September in New York, President Trump jumped in by phone as the men sealed a deal on a top priority for Washington.

去年9月，当商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在纽约瑞吉酒店与哈萨克斯坦总统会面时，特朗普总统通过电话介入，协助双方就华盛顿的一项紧要事务达成了协议。

During the call, Mr. Trump and his team won an agreement from the Kazakh leader to give a little-known American company access to one of the world’s largest untapped reserves of tungsten, a metal that the United States desperately needs for the production of missile warheads, fighter jets, computer chips and other critical goods.

在通话期间，特朗普及其团队赢得了这位哈萨克斯坦领导人的同意，将全球最大未开发钨矿藏之一的开采权授予一家鲜为人知的美国公司。钨是美国在生产导弹弹头、战斗机、电脑芯片和其他关键商品时迫切需要的一种金属。

Ahead of the deal, the Trump administration approved preliminary applications for as much as $1.6 billion in federal financing for the American company, now called Kaz Resources, which plans to break ground on the project in rural Kazakhstan.

在该交易达成前，特朗普政府批准了一项初步申请，向这家现名为哈萨资源(Kaz Resources)的美国公司提供高达16亿美元的联邦融资，该公司计划在哈萨克斯坦的农村地区动工推进该项目。

It was not only Mr. Trump and Mr. Lutnick who saw an opportunity.

看到机遇的不仅仅是特朗普和卢特尼克。

Their sons were soon doing business with partners in a deal that their fathers were negotiating, continuing a pattern of self-enrichment in the second Trump administration that has few precedents in American history.

他们的儿子很快便开始与他们父亲正在谈判的交易中的合伙人做生意，这延续了第二届特朗普政府中一种谋取私利的模式，这在美国历史上鲜有先例。

Within weeks of the St. Regis negotiations, investors with a firm called Dominari Securities, which is housed at Trump Tower in New York and partly owned by the president’s two eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, joined with other partners to take a 20 percent stake in a corporate entity related to the Kazakhstan project.

在瑞吉酒店谈判后的几周内，一家名为多米纳里证券(Dominari Securities)的公司的投资者与其它合伙人共同得到了与哈萨克斯坦项目相关的一个企业实体20%的股份。多米纳里证券的总部设在纽约的特朗普大厦，部分股权由总统的大儿子小唐纳德·特朗普和次子埃里克·特朗普持有。

Around the same time, Cantor Fitzgerald, an investment company controlled by Mr. Lutnick’s family and overseen by his sons Brandon and Kyle Lutnick, helped one of the lead investors working with Dominari on the Kazakh deal raise $210 million in new capital for a related entity. Such rounds of fund-raising typically net Cantor millions of dollars in fees.

大约在同一时间，投资公司坎特·菲茨杰拉德(Cantor Fitzgerald)协助在哈萨克斯坦交易中与多米纳里合作的一位领投者，为一个相关实体筹集了2.1亿美元的新资本。坎特·菲茨杰拉德由卢特尼克家族控制、并由其儿子布兰登·卢特尼克和凯尔·卢特尼克监管，在此类融资轮中通常能净赚数百万美元的手续费。

The Kazakh deal was ultimately signed on Nov. 6, six days after the investment involving the Trump sons and their partners, which was not publicly disclosed at the time.

这项哈萨克斯坦交易最终于11月6日签署，也就是在涉及特朗普儿子及其合伙人的投资达成的六天后。该投资在当时未向公众披露。

The arrangement is hardly an outlier. One or both families have financial ties to at least 14 companies that are actively working with the federal government on critical mining deals, including the Kazakhstan project, according to federal filings examined by The New York Times.

这一安排绝非个例。根据《纽约时报》审查的联邦备案文件，至少有14家公司与联邦政府积极合作开展关键采矿项目，其中包括哈萨克斯坦项目，而这两个家族或各自、或共同与14家公司存在财务联系。

All 14 of these companies have either benefited directly from offers of financial assistance from the Trump administration, or have pending permit applications before the Commerce Department, which Mr. Lutnick oversees, The Times found. The total amount of federal funding that the Trump administration has provided or is considering providing to the companies exceeds $8.9 billion, according to public statements by the companies and federal government.

时报发现，这14家公司要么直接从特朗普政府提供的财政援助中受益，要么在卢特尼克所监管的商务部有待批的许可证申请。根据这些公司和联邦政府的公开声明，特朗普政府已经向这些公司提供或正考虑提供的联邦资金总额超过了89亿美元。

This emboldened mixing of federal policymaking and personal business began shortly after Mr. Trump returned to office last year, when the Trump and Lutnick sons played a role in billions of dollars of cryptocurrency deals as the fathers helped set policies that supercharged the crypto industry.

这种公然将联邦政策制定与个人商业利益混为一谈的行为在特朗普去年重新执政后不久便已开始。当时，特朗普和卢特尼克的儿子们在数十亿美元的加密货币交易中发挥了作用，他们的父亲则协助制定了刺激加密货币行业蓬勃发展的政策。

Now, the families’ ethically tangled pursuit of profits is extending to the new arms race for critical minerals.

如今，这两个家族存在操守争议的逐利行为正延伸到这场围绕关键矿产的新军备竞赛中。

These kinds of deals are a warning sign, said Representative Maxine Dexter of Oregon, the top Democrat on the House panel that investigates accusations of wrongdoing in the mining industry.

众议院调查采矿业违规行为指控的小组委员会中的首席民主党人、俄勒冈州众议员麦克辛·德克斯特表示，此类交易令人警觉。

“Congress needs to make sure that taxpayer dollars are being used in the public’s interest and not to benefit family members or those closely tied with the Trump administration,” Ms. Dexter said in an interview.

“国会需要确保纳税人的钱是被用于公众利益，而不是让家族成员或那些与特朗普政府关系密切的人受益，”德克斯特在接受采访时说。

The White House and the Commerce Department, in separate statements, rejected any suggestion that the Trump administration was improperly mixing government actions with family business.

白宫和商务部在各自的声明中均否认特朗普政府将政府行为与家族利益不当混淆的任何指控。

“The only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s decision-making is the best interest of the American people,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in a statement to The Times. “Securing and reshoring America’s critical supply chains has been a top priority for President Trump, and Secretary Lutnick along with the rest of the administration continue to take historic action to safeguard America’s national and economic security.”

“引导特朗普政府决策的唯一特殊利益就是美国人民的最大利益，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在给《时报》的一份声明中表示。“美国关键供应链的保障和回岸一直是特朗普总统的首要任务，卢特尼克部长以及政府的其他官员将继续采取历史性行动，来捍卫美国的国家与经济安全。”

At the center of the Kazakhstan deal is an Australia-born rabbi named Pini Althaus, who moved to the United States years ago and set his sights on critical minerals.

哈萨克斯坦交易的一位核心人物是出生于澳大利亚、名为皮尼·阿尔特豪斯的拉比，他于多年前移居美国，并将目光投向了关键矿产。

Mr. Althaus is the executive chairman of Kaz Resources and the related company that will mine the Kazakh tungsten deposit, and he remains a shareholder in another critical minerals firm he founded that secured up to $1.6 billion in Commerce Department financing this month.

阿尔特豪斯是哈萨资源公司以及负责开采哈萨克斯坦钨矿的相关公司的执行主席，他还是由他创立的另一家关键矿产公司的股东，后者本月获得了商务部高达16亿美元的融资。

He has proved to be a savvy player, soliciting — and receiving — direct support from top-level federal officials, including Mr. Lutnick, in his efforts to secure deals.

他已被证明是一名精明的玩家，在交易过程中寻求——并确实获得了——包括卢特尼克在内的联邦高层官员的直接支持。

In a series of interviews, he said his discussions with the U.S. government about the tungsten deal started during the Biden administration and did not benefit from any political favors.

在一系列采访中，他表示自己与美国政府就钨交易展开的讨论始于拜登政府时期，并没有从任何政治庇护中受益。

Mr. Althaus said that in the weeks after the St. Regis meeting, he was approached by new investors, but that he had never met Mr. Trump’s sons and did not know they were involved. He later came to learn about the Trump family’s participation and understood how that might generate questions, he said.

阿尔特豪斯表示，在瑞吉酒店会议结束后的几周内，有新的投资者接洽了他，但他从未见过特朗普的儿子们，也不知道他们参与其中。他说，他后来得知了特朗普家族的参与，并理解这可能会引发质疑。

“I can see how the optics might be disturbing to some people,” Mr. Althaus said. “But that’s unfortunate because this company and this project goes way beyond any one president, let alone any family.”

“我能理解这种外在观感可能会让一些人感到不安，”阿尔特豪斯说。“但这很遗憾，因为这家公司和这个项目远远超出了任何一位总统的范畴，更不用说任何一个家族了。”

Central Asia’s Promise

中亚的承诺

Since Mr. Trump returned to office, the federal government has given conditional or final approval to 60 critical minerals projects worldwide backed by $18.6 billion in federal loans, loan guarantees or other financing, according to a count in May by BMO Capital Markets, a leading bank in the sector. That is the largest amount in U.S. history, a bank executive said.

根据该行业领先银行BMO资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)在5月的一项统计，自特朗普总统重返白宫以来，联邦政府已对全球60个关键矿产项目给予了有条件或最终批准，并提供了186亿美元的联邦贷款、贷款担保或其他融资。该银行的一位高管表示，这是美国历史上最大金额的投资。

The Pentagon and the Export-Import Bank, where Mr. Lutnick sits on the board, are among the federal agencies bankrolling the push. The moves have created a modern-day gold rush in the critical minerals industry, as start-ups seek to get a chunk of the federal largess.

五角大楼和卢特尼克任董事的美国进出口银行也在参与资助的联邦机构之列。随着初创公司试图从联邦的慷慨拨款中分得一杯羹，这些举措在关键矿产行业引发了一场现代版的淘金热。

For example, Donald Trump Jr. is a partner at another investment firm that last summer took a stake in a tiny start-up mining company called Vulcan Elements. Months later, the company signed a nearly $700 million deal with the federal government to help finance the expansion of its production in North Carolina.

例如，小唐纳德·特朗普是另一家投资公司的合伙人，该公司去年夏天入股了一家名为Vulcan Elements的微型初创采矿公司。几个月后，该公司与联邦政府签署了一份价值近7亿美元的协议，以协助其在北卡罗来纳州的生产扩张。

“The level of activity compared to, say, 2023 is like night and day,” said Max Yerrill, a BMO vice president. “It has been one of the hottest sectors.”

“与2023年相比，目前的活跃程度简直是天壤之别，”蒙特利尔银行副总裁麦克斯·耶里尔说。“这已经成为最热门的行业之一。”

苏联时代为工人村建造的预制建筑外壳，这里如今已成为一座未完工的鬼城，伫立在哈萨克草原的钨矿床之间。

For Kazakh officials, such deals offer their landlocked nation a new calling card in foreign affairs and an entree with Mr. Trump.

对于哈萨克斯坦官员而言，此类交易为他们这个内陆国家在外交事务中提供了一张新名片，也是与特朗普接触的敲门砖。

The country can produce and process 25 of the 60 commodities on the U.S. critical minerals list, according to Olzhas Alibekov, a top official at Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and Construction.

根据哈萨克斯坦工业和建设部高级官员奥尔扎斯·阿里别科夫的说法，该国可以生产和加工美国关键矿产清单上60种商品中的25种。

“Kazakhstan is positioning itself as an important player in the global rare and rare earth metals market,” said Nurlan Zhakupov, the chief executive of the Kazakh sovereign wealth fund, which owns the state mining company that is partnering with Kaz Resources on the tungsten project.

“哈萨克斯坦正将自己定位为全球稀有金属和稀土金属市场的重要参与者，”哈萨克斯坦主权财富基金首席执行官努尔兰·扎库波夫表示，该基金拥有在钨项目上与哈萨资源公司合作的国家采矿公司。

That project will require a huge investment, which Mr. Althaus estimates will total about $650 million initially and $1.1 billion over the life of the project. According to his firm’s own calculations, the tungsten there might be worth as much as $80 billion.

该项目将需要巨额投资，阿尔特豪斯估计初步需要约6.5亿美元，在项目的整个生命周期内将达到11亿美元。根据他自己公司的计算，那里的钨价值可能高达800亿美元。

His company could not make the project happen by itself. He needed the U.S. government to cut a deal with Kazakhstan at the highest levels, and to pledge financing to make the math work. In return, the United States could get access to an estimated 12,000 metric tons of tungsten a year, about as much as is now imported annually.

他的公司无法独自让这个项目成为现实。他需要美国政府在最高层与哈萨克斯坦达成交易，并承诺提供资金，这样才具备财务上的可行性。作为回报，美国每年预计可以获得1.2万吨的钨，这大约相当于目前每年的进口量。

A New York Deal

纽约的一场交易

At the St. Regis Hotel that day in September 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan was in the middle of a speed-dating-like procession of meetings with executives from corporate giants like Citigroup, Amazon and Chevron.

2025年9月的这一天，在瑞吉酒店，哈萨克斯坦总统卡西姆若马尔特·托卡耶夫正接连不断地与来自花旗集团、亚马逊和雪佛龙等企业巨头的高管进行类似于速配约会的会面。

Among Mr. Tokayev’s corporate guests was Mr. Althaus, who was there to push Kazakhstan to approve the mining project. Mr. Lutnick had his own audience with the Kazakh president at the hotel that day.

托卡耶夫的企业客人中包括阿尔特豪斯，他当时在那里推动哈萨克斯坦批准该采矿项目。卢特尼克当天在酒店也单独见了哈萨克斯坦总统。

“You have great critical minerals that we can invest in together,” the commerce secretary told Mr. Tokayev, according to a recording of parts of the meeting that the Kazakh leader posted on social media.

根据这位哈萨克斯坦领导人在社交媒体上发布的部分会议录音，商务部长告诉托卡耶夫：“你们拥有伟大的关键矿产，我们可以共同投资。”

哈萨资源公司的阿里别克·卡兹别库利在一处钨矿床检查岩石。

“President Trump, Secretary Lutnick and Secretary Rubio all personally got involved,” said Mr. Althaus, who did not attend the closed-door meeting. “President Trump did the final negotiation with President Tokayev for this deal.”

“特朗普总统、卢特尼克部长和卢比奥国务卿都亲自参与了进来，”并未参加这场闭门会议的阿尔特豪斯说。“特朗普总统与托卡耶夫总统就这项交易进行了最终谈判。”

Chinese bidders were also looking to get access to the Kazakh tungsten site, which is one reason Mr. Althaus needed help from the U.S. government.

中国的竞标者也在寻求获得该哈萨克斯坦钨矿的开采权，这也是阿尔特豪斯需要美国政府协助的原因之一。

The final signing took place on Nov. 6, during a high-profile summit in Washington, where Mr. Trump welcomed the five leaders of Central Asia and highlighted his interest in their critical minerals.

最终的签约在11月6日华盛顿一场备受瞩目的峰会期间进行，特朗普在峰会上迎候了中亚五国领导人，并强调了他对他们关键矿产的兴趣。

Under the terms of the deal, Mr. Althaus’s firm now owns 70 percent of the venture, and the Kazakh state mining company will own 30 percent.

根据交易条款，阿尔特豪斯的公司现在拥有该合资企业70%的股份，哈萨克斯坦国家采矿公司将拥有30%的股份。

Investors involved in the Kazakh deal have several different business plans slated to benefit from Trump administration support — and that also do business with Cantor Fitzgerald.

参与该哈萨克斯坦交易的投资者有数十个商业计划将从特朗普政府的支持中受益，并且在和坎特·菲茨杰拉德开展业务。

This month, for example, the Trump administration committed to provide up to $1.6 billion in financial support to USA Rare Earth, the other mining company Mr. Althaus founded and in which he remains a shareholder.

例如，特朗普政府本月承诺向美国稀土公司提供高达16亿美元的资金支持，这是阿尔特豪斯创立并仍保留股东身份的另一家采矿公司。

That deal gives the Commerce Department 16 million shares of the company’s stock. Cantor Fitzgerald separately earned millions of dollars in fees by helping USA Rare Earth in a series of deals since last year that ultimately raised $1.5 billion for the company.

该交易使商务部获得该公司1600万股股票。而坎特·菲茨杰拉德自去年以来通过协助美国稀土公司进行一系列交易，最终为公司筹集了15亿美元，并单独赚取了数百万美元的费用。

Cantor Fitzgerald, which Mr. Lutnick ran before he became commerce secretary, has long had a division that helps mining companies raise capital. But it has seen a surge in its business helping to launch or finance mining companies, especially those benefiting from Trump administration support.

出任商务部长之前，卢特尼克曾掌管坎特·菲茨杰拉德，该公司一直设有一个协助矿业公司融资的部门。但近年来该部门在帮助创立矿业公司或为其融资方面的业务激增，尤其是那些受益于特朗普政府支持的公司。

Democrats in Congress have called for an investigation into the proposed Commerce Department stake in USA Rare Earth. They told Mr. Lutnick in a letter that it was “the latest example of how official Commerce Department business has intersected with Cantor Fitzgerald’s financial interests during your tenure.”

国会民主党人已呼吁对拟议中的商务部入股美国稀土公司一事展开调查。他们在一封信中对卢特尼克指出，这是“在你任期内，商务部的官方事务与坎特·菲茨杰拉德的经济利益发生交集的最新例证”。

In a statement, the Commerce Department said that neither Mr. Lutnick nor anyone at the department had “interacted with or had any discussions whatsoever with Cantor Fitzgerald regarding the rare earth minerals industry.” It noted that Mr. Lutnick had sold his ownership stake in Cantor.

商务部在一份声明中表示，卢特尼克及商务部任何人都“未就稀土矿产行业与坎特·菲茨杰拉德公司进行过互动或开展过任何讨论”。声明指出，卢特尼克已出售其在坎特·菲茨杰拉德的持股。

A Trump Stake

特朗普家族的股份

The Trump brothers’ ties to the Kazakhstan deal started at their father’s tower on Fifth Avenue in New York.

特朗普两个儿子与哈萨克斯坦交易的联系始于其父在纽约第五大道的特朗普大厦。

That is where Dominari Securities, a small financial services firm, had set up its offices after Mr. Trump’s first stint in the White House ended.

在特朗普的第一个白宫任期结束后，一家名为多米纳里证券的小型金融服务公司在那里设立了办公室。

Such proximity to the Trump Organization’s headquarters afforded Dominari executives the chance to form friendships — and then business relationships — with Mr. Trump’s sons.

如此接近特朗普集团的总部为多米纳里的高管们提供了机会，与特朗普的儿子们建立友谊，进而建立商业关系。

“That’s how the relationship started and developed,” Allan Evans, one of Dominari’s business partners, said in an interview.

“这就是这段关系开始和发展的方式，”多米纳里的一位商业伙伴艾伦·埃文斯在接受采访时说。

After Mr. Trump returned to the White House, Dominari hired Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump as paid advisers, giving them stock now worth about $7 million, representing about 10 percent of the company’s total shares. The firm launched an explicit effort to invest in companies aligned with the president’s agenda, ranging from military drones to critical minerals.

特朗普重返白宫后，多米纳里请来小唐纳德·特朗普和埃里克·特朗普担任付费顾问，给予了他们目前价值约700万美元的股票，约占公司总股份的10%。该公司明确致力于投资与总统议程一致的企业，范围从军用无人机到关键矿产。

To carry out the Kazakh tungsten investment, Dominari relied on the sort of complex corporate maneuvering that is a hallmark of its deals.

为了实施对哈萨克斯坦钨矿的投资，多米纳里依赖于复杂的公司运作手法，这是其交易的一大标志。

First, Dominari partnered with Paul E. Mann, a British investor and entrepreneur who more recently has also been looking to get into the critical minerals sector.

首先，多米纳里与英国投资者兼企业家保罗·马恩合作，后者近期也在寻求进入关键矿产领域。

Using a subsidiary of Mr. Mann’s nuclear energy company, ASP Isotopes, the group of investors last summer bought a controlling amount of shares in a failing road construction firm called Skyline Builders. That might seem like an odd move, but they did so for a reason — Skyline is listed on the Nasdaq exchange. So the ASP subsidiary now controlled a publicly traded company.

通过马恩的核能公司ASP Isotopes旗下的一家子公司，这群投资者在去年夏天收购了一家濒临破产的道路建设公司天际线建设者的控股权。这看起来有些奇怪，但他们这样做是有原因的——天际线建设者在纳斯达克上市。于是，ASP的子公司现在控制了一家上市公司。

Dominari and the Trump sons joined this effort through what is known as a Special Purpose Vehicle, which took a stake in Skyline, as was first reported by The Financial Times. The Trump sons have a second small interest in the deal, through an investment they made directly in the ASP subsidiary late last year, according to Mr. Mann.

多米纳里和特朗普的儿子们通过一个所谓的特殊目的载体加入了这一努力，该载体入股了天际线建设者，《金融时报》率先对此做了报道。据马恩称，通过去年年底直接对该子公司进行的一笔投资，特朗普的儿子们在该交易中拥有第二个小的利益份额。

In late September, the Trump administration secured the verbal agreement from the Kazakh government for the tungsten rights.

9月下旬，特朗普政府与哈萨克斯坦政府就钨矿开采权达成了口头协议。

That set their move into play.

这使他们的行动付诸实施。

In October, Cantor Fitzgerald helped raise $210 million for ASP Isotopes.

10月，坎特·菲茨杰拉德协助为ASP Isotopes筹集了2.1亿美元。

By Oct. 31, Skyline, now controlled by ASP, took a 20 percent stake in Mr. Althaus’s Kazakhstan-focused corporate entity, for $20 million. The former road building company was suddenly in the mining business.

到10月31日，现由ASP控制的天际线建设者以2000万美元收购了阿尔特豪斯专注于哈萨克斯坦业务的实体公司20%的股份。这家前道路建设公司突然涉足了矿业。

Six days later, the final deal with the Kazakh government was signed in Washington by Mr. Lutnick.

六天后，卢特尼克在华盛顿签署了与哈萨克斯坦政府的最终协议。

Mr. Mann, in an interview, insisted the money that Cantor raised for ASP Isotopes was not used in the mining deal. Nevertheless, Cantor — the investment firm overseen by Mr. Lutnick’s sons — was fund-raising for Mr. Mann’s company at the same time that its subsidiary was preparing to invest in a deal that Mr. Lutnick was negotiating as commerce secretary.

马恩在采访中坚称，坎特·菲茨杰拉德为ASP Isotopes筹集的资金并未用于该采矿交易。然而，坎特·菲茨杰拉德——这家由卢特尼克的儿子们执掌的投资公司——为马恩的公司融资之际，后者旗下的一家子公司却正准备投资于一项由卢特尼克本人以商务部长身份推动谈判的交易。

In December, Mr. Mann approached Mr. Althaus with a proposal for a maneuver known as a “reverse merger,” which would replace Skyline Builders on the Nasdaq exchange with a new entity known as Kaz Resources, Mr. Althaus said. The merger, which will essentially take the mining operation public, was announced in April.

12月，马恩向阿尔特豪斯提出了一项“反向合并”的操作建议，也就是用一个名为哈萨资源的新实体取代纳斯达克上市的天际线建设者，阿尔特豪斯说道。此操作实质上是将采矿业务推向上市，这项合并已于4月宣布。

The listing will allow investors to profit on the Kazakhstan project by trading its stock before any tungsten comes out of the ground. U.S. government backing of such projects often pushes up the stock price, making money for early-stage investors who exit at the right time.

上市将使投资者能够在钨矿实际开采前通过交易该项目的股票来获利。美国政府对此类项目的支持往往会推高股价，从而让在合适时机退出的早期投资者赚到钱。

As part of the merger, Skyline agreed to make about $50 million available for the Kazakh project beyond the original $20 million investment, Mr. Althaus said.

阿尔特豪斯表示，作为并购的一部分，天际线建设者同意，在最初2000万美元投资的基础上，再向哈萨克斯坦项目提供约5000万美元。

Mr. Althaus said he needed the money from the merger to begin work on the Kazakhstan project. The merger still requires U.S. regulatory approval to close.

阿尔特豪斯说，他需要用并购带来的资金启动哈萨克斯坦项目。该并购仍需美国监管部门批准才能最终完成。

Dominari did not respond to requests to comment.

多米纳里没有回应置评请求。

Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. said in separate statements that they were not involved in the specifics of the deal, with Eric Trump writing that he “has always been a passive investor with absolutely no management role.”

埃里克·特朗普和小唐纳德·特朗普在各自声明中表示，他们未参与该交易的具体事务。埃里克·特朗普写道，他“一直是被动投资者，绝对没有任何管理角色”。

Mr. Mann confirmed that Mr. Trump’s sons have a financial interest in the deal. But he said he had not spoken to them, or anyone in the Trump family, about it.

马恩证实，特朗普的儿子们在该交易中拥有经济利益。但他表示，他没有与他们或特朗普家族的任何人谈论过此事。

“When you look at it, take a step back here, there’s no conflict of interest here,” Mr. Mann said. “And it’s certainly in the United States government’s best interest to want to do this deal.”

“当你审视这件事，退后一步来看，这里没有任何利益冲突，”马恩说。“而且达成这项交易显然符合美国政府的最大利益。”

He also said he did not pick Cantor to raise money for his company because Mr. Lutnick is commerce secretary.

他还表示，他选择坎特·菲茨杰拉德为他的公司筹集资金，并不是因为卢特尼克是商务部长。

“Of course not,” he said, adding, “Should Cantor exclude themselves from all deals in the mining sector? That’s unfair on Cantor.”

“当然不是，”他说，并补充道，“难道坎特·菲茨杰拉德应该将自己排除在采矿业的所有交易之外吗？那对它来说是不公平的。”

The news traveled fast in Yawata, a spiritual oasis of 68,000 people in western Japan known for its traditional tea culture and cherry blossoms. Shoko Kawata, the city’s mayor, was pregnant with her first child — and she was planning to take maternity leave, the first mayor in Japan to do so.

消息在日本西部这座拥有6.8万人口、以传统茶文化和樱花闻名的精神绿洲八幡市迅速传开。该市市长川田翔子怀上了她的第一个孩子——并且计划休产假，这将使她成为日本首位休产假的市长。

Many residents of Yawata celebrated Ms. Kawata, 35, and her decision, which she announced in May. They offered gifts like crocheted baby shoes and auspicious ceremonial rocks. But in Japan’s patriarchal society, some people — especially men — responded with anger, calling her irresponsible, and accusing her of placing her personal life above her constituents.

许多八幡市居民对35岁的川田以及她于5月宣布的这一决定表示祝贺。他们送来了诸如手工钩编的婴儿鞋和寓意吉祥的赏石等礼物。但在日本这个男权社会，一些人——尤其是男性——对此做出了愤怒的回应，称她不负责任，并指责她将个人生活置于选民之上。

“I somehow realized for the first time just how much discrimination still exists,” Ms. Kawata, who is six months pregnant, said in an interview this past week at City Hall, inside a room lined with portraits of her male predecessors.

“我似乎第一次真正意识到，依然存在着多么深的歧视，”怀孕六个月的川田上周在市长办公室接受采访时说道，房间内整齐地挂着历任男性前任市长的肖像。

Ms. Kawata’s decision has prompted a national debate about the hurdles that working women still face — on the factory floor, in corporate suites and in government. Discrimination against young mothers is still so common that there is a Japanese word for it: matahara, or maternity harassment. Some women feel pressure to avoid taking extended maternity leave, worried their careers might suffer.

川田的决定引发了一场关于职场女性目前仍面临的障碍的全国性辩论——无论是在工厂车间、公司管理层还是在政府中。针对年轻母亲的歧视依然如此普遍，以至于日本甚至为此专门创造了一个词：matahara，即孕产骚扰。一些女性感到压力而避免休长产假，担心自己的职业生涯可能会受到影响。

针对年轻母亲的歧视依然如此普遍，以至于日本甚至为此专门创造了一个词：matahara，即孕产骚扰。

Despite the history-making election last year of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister, women are still scarce in Japan’s government. That is especially true at the local level. As of last year, less than 4 percent of 1,740 municipal leaders were women.

尽管去年高市早苗当选日本首位女性首相，创造了历史，在日本政府中，女性依然凤毛麟角。在地方层面上尤其如此。截至去年，在1740名地方市镇领导人中，女性占比不到4%。

Ms. Kawata has been hailed as a trailblazer by some officials, scholars and activists, who say she is helping normalize the idea of maternity leave.

川田被一些官员、学者和活动人士誉为开拓者，他们表示她正在帮助将休产假这一观念正常化。

Kyoko Morisawa, the mayor of Shinagawa City, a part of Tokyo, said it was important for Japan to have more young mothers like Ms. Kawata in public life, especially given the rapidly declining population.

东京都品川区区长森泽恭子表示，鉴于人口急剧下降，让更多像川田这样的年轻母亲参与到公共生活中来对日本至关重要。

“We should do more to support child-raising as a society,” said Ms. Morisawa, a mother. “Taking leave should not be news.”

“作为社会，我们应该采取更多措施来支持育儿，”身为母亲的森泽说。“休假不应该成为新闻。”

Ms. Kawata, who previously worked as a social worker and political aide, is accustomed to challenging convention.

当过社工和政治助手的川田早已习惯了挑战传统。

In 2023, when she was 33, she became the first woman to be elected as Yawata’s mayor, and the youngest woman ever elected mayor in Japan, succeeding a 71-year-old politician with promises to expand medical care for children and promote tourism.

2023年，时年33岁的她成为首位当选为八幡市市长的女性，也是日本有史以来最年轻的女性市长。她接替了一位71岁的政治人士，承诺扩大针对儿童的医疗保健并促进旅游业。

When she learned she was pregnant this year, she decided, after discussing with her staff, to take about two months before the birth — expected in mid-September — and two months after. She arranged for a deputy to manage day-to-day business while she is away, though she will remain involved in major decisions.

今年得知自己怀孕后，她与幕僚讨论后决定在预产期（预计在9月中旬）前休假约两个月，在产后休假两个月。她安排了一名副手在她不在期间管理日常事务，不过她仍将参与重大决策。

川田坐在八幡市政府的议会厅内。在日本政府中，女性依然凤毛麟角：截至去年，在日本1720名地方市镇领导人中，女性占比不到4%。

As word of her pregnancy spread in the national media, she held a news conference to explain her decision.

随着怀孕的消息在全国媒体上传开，她举行了一场新闻发布会来解释自己的决定。

“Systems can be changed, but people cannot,” she told reporters. “I cannot become a man.”

“制度可以改变，但人不能改变，”她告诉记者。“我无法变成一个男人。”

The announcement caused a stir in Yawata, a town near Kyoto city that is dotted with Shinto shrines and Buddhist temples. City Hall received about 90 messages in support of Ms. Kawata’s decision, and 70 opposed.

这一声明在八幡市引起了轰动，这座靠近京都、有许多神道教神社和佛教寺庙的小镇一时间群情激荡。市长办公室收到了大约90条支持川田决定的信息，以及70条反对信息。

A heated debate erupted online. One of the loudest voices was Toshio Tamogami, a retired general and nationalist politician, who wrote on X that he felt “a great sense of discomfort about someone in public office taking such a long vacation.”

网络上爆发了一场激烈的辩论。其中发声最响亮的人之一是退役将领、民族主义政治人物田母神俊雄，他在X上写道，他对“公职人员休这么长的假感到非常难以接受”。

In an interview, Mr. Tamogami said he felt that women who plan to have children or take maternity leave should avoid running for office.

在接受采访时，田母神表示，他认为计划要孩子或休产假的女性应该避免竞选公职。

“Unlike people in ordinary jobs, a mayor is, so to speak, irreplaceable,” he said. “To say, ‘It’s my right, so I’m running regardless’ — I feel it would be better if they refrained from doing so.”

“与普通工作的人不同，可以说市长是不可替代的，”他说。“如果说‘这是我的权利，所以我不管怎样都要竞选’——我觉得如果她们能克制自己、不这样做会更好。”

Ms. Kawata, who has taken a break from social media because of the backlash, said it was regrettable to be “fiercely attacked” by Mr. Tamogami and others.

因遭到强烈抵制而暂停使用社交媒体的川田表示，受到田母神等人的“猛烈攻击”令人遗憾。

Many people have come to Ms. Kawata’s defense, saying Japan would benefit from more women in politics.

许多人站出来为川田辩护，称更多的女性参政将使日本受益。

“Japan needs to create an environment in which people can take that leave as a matter of course,” said an editorial in the national Mainichi newspaper.

全国性报纸《每日新闻》在一篇社论中指出：“日本需要创造一个让人人都能理所当然休这类假的环境。”

In Yawata, residents said they were proud that their mayor was modeling the importance of starting a family. Some have encouraged her to have even more children.

在八幡市，居民们表示，他们为自己的市长树立了重视家庭的榜样感到自豪。一些人甚至鼓励她生更多的孩子。

在面临人口迅速老化的八幡市，居民们表示，他们为自己的市长树立了重视家庭的榜样而感到自豪。

As she walked outside City Hall with a friend on a recent day, Toshiko Nakamura, 81, recalled that when she gave birth to her own children, maternity leave was rare. She said Ms. Kawata was helping set an example.

近日，81岁的中村俊子（音）与朋友散步经过市长办公室外时回忆道，在她生孩子那个年代，产假是非常罕见的。她说川田正在协助树立一个榜样。

“Japan has a low birthrate, so raising children while simultaneously leading a public office is difficult, but there are many people who can help,” she said. “I hope they’ll raise their hands and offer that help.”

“日本的生育率很低，在担任公职的同时抚养孩子固然困难，但有许多人可以提供协助，”她说。“我希望他们能挺身而出，提供这种协助。”

Inside her office, Ms. Kawata said her aim was to “create a society where talented individuals — regardless of gender — can demonstrate their abilities in high-level positions without having to sacrifice their family life.”

在她的办公室里，川田表示她的目标是“创造一个让有才华的人——无论性别如何——都能在高层职位上展现自己的能力、不必牺牲其家庭生活的社会”。

She said she hoped she might inspire more women to enter politics.

她说，她希望自己能够激励更多的女性步入政坛。

“It won’t be easy, but that is something we should aim for,” she said. “Policymaking will be better than ever before.”

“肯定会很难，但那是我们应该追求的目标，”她说。“政策制定将会比以前更好。”

The skyline of Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, is a physical reflection of the Central Asian nation’s approach to foreign affairs.

哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳的天际线是这个中亚国家外交政策理念的具象呈现。

A sign reading “Moscow” sits atop a Kazakh-Russian business center. Beside it is a pagoda-crowned luxury hotel owned by the Chinese state oil company. Nearby is a gleaming hotel tower and shopping mall, emblazoned with the American brand Ritz-Carlton.

哈俄商业中心顶部有一块写有“莫斯科”字样的招牌。它旁边是一座中国国有石油公司持有、顶部呈宝塔造型的豪华酒店。附近还有一座熠熠生辉的酒店大厦与购物中心，打着美国品牌丽思卡尔顿的旗号。

And they all exist in the shadow of Abu Dhabi Plaza, the city’s biggest skyscraper, developed by a real estate firm from the United Arab Emirates.

而它们全都笼罩在阿布扎比广场的阴影之下。这座城市最高的摩天大楼由一家来自阿联酋的房地产公司开发。

It is the product of what Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, calls a “multivector” foreign policy.

这正是哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫所倡导的“多向量”外交政策的产物。

In pursuit of greater independence and security, Mr. Tokayev’s landlocked nation of 21 million people, bordered by Russia and China, has tried to counterbalance the neighboring superpowers by inviting investment from countries farther afield. They include the United States; European nations like the Netherlands and Switzerland; South Korea; Turkey; and several in the Middle East.

哈萨克斯坦有2100万人口，地处内陆，与俄罗斯和中国接壤。为寻求更大的独立空间与安全保障，托卡耶夫政府广邀远方国家投资，以此制衡两大邻国强权。这些国家包括美国、荷兰和瑞士等欧洲国家、韩国、土耳其，以及多个中东国家。

阿布扎比广场在阿斯塔纳的天际线中巍然矗立。

A desire to emulate the Gulf states is palpable at the headquarters of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, Samruk Kazyna, which is named for a magical bird from Kazakh folklore that lays a golden egg atop the Tree of Life. Kazakhstan’s tightly controlled political system, its multinational quest for investment and its natural-resource-fueled development offer parallels to nations like the U.A.E. and Qatar.

在哈萨克斯坦主权财富基金萨姆鲁克-卡泽纳国家基金的总部，可以明显感受到该国希望效仿海湾国家的愿望。该基金的名字来源于哈萨克民间传说中的神鸟“萨姆鲁克”，它会在生命树顶端产下一枚金蛋。哈萨克斯坦高度集中的政治体制、多国并行的招商引资战略，以及依靠自然资源推动发展的模式，都与阿联酋和卡塔尔等国家存在相似之处。

“We are driven by a pragmatic approach,” Nurlan Zhakupov, the head of the fund, said in an interview atop a skyscraper overlooking a newly built part of Astana. “If we see merit in working with the U.S., the E.U., a Chinese, Russian, Korean, German, Emirati or whatever company, we assess it on a relative performance basis and we choose what is the best for us.”

“我们以务实的态度行事，”基金的首席执行官努尔兰·扎克波夫在阿斯塔纳一栋俯瞰新城的摩天大楼顶层接受采访时说，“无论是与美国、欧盟、中国、俄罗斯、韩国、德国、阿联酋，还是其他任何国家的公司合作，我们都以相对表现为标尺，然后选择对我们最有利的方案。”

Lately, there has been a particular focus on the United States.

最近，哈萨克斯坦尤其关注美国。

Kazakhstan is a junior partner to Russia in a NATO-like military alliance and a European Union-like trade bloc. But that hasn’t stopped its leaders from aggressively courting Washington under President Trump, prompting a slew of business deals, a series of high-level meetings and a frenzy of engagement with American companies.

在一个类似北约的军事联盟和一个类似欧盟的贸易集团中，哈萨克斯坦是俄罗斯的小伙伴。但这并未阻止其领导人在特朗普总统任内积极向华盛顿示好，促成了一连串商业协议、一系列高层会晤，以及与美国企业的频繁互动。

In response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Central Asian governments have drawn closer together as a bloc, while welcoming Mr. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy. They are seeking opportunities to reduce their reliance on Moscow, even as they tread lightly so as not to cross the Kremlin or antagonize China.

面对俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争，中亚各国政府在抱团取暖的同时，也对特朗普奉行的交易型外交方针表示欢迎。它们正寻机降低对莫斯科的依赖，却又刻意保持克制，以免触怒克里姆林宫或惹恼中国。

“For the business relationship, it has never been better,” said Jeff Erlich, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan, who has worked in and around the region since the late 1990s. “In my experience, that is clear.”

“就商业关系而言，从未像现在这样好过，”哈萨克斯坦美国商会会长杰夫·埃利希说。他自上世纪90年代末以来就一直在该地区及周边工作。“以我的亲身经历来看，这是毋庸置疑的。”

In Washington, Mr. Trump has dispensed with America’s traditional talk of human rights and democracy in connection with foreign policy. He has instead embraced a mercantilist approach, judging countries like Kazakhstan by what deals they can offer. A top priority has been securing access to Kazakhstan’s large supply of critical minerals and ensuring that they can be exported via the Middle Corridor, a route that crosses the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus to avoid Russia.

在华盛顿，特朗普已经放弃了美国传统上在外交政策中谈论人权和民主的做法。他转而采取了一种重商主义的做法，根据像哈萨克斯坦这样的国家能提供什么交易来衡量它们的价值。其首要目标之一是确保获得哈萨克斯坦丰富的关键矿产资源，并保证这些资源能够通过“中间走廊”出口——这条路线穿越里海和高加索地区，以避开俄罗斯。

Mr. Tokayev’s authoritarian ways — he recently changed Kazakhstan’s Constitution to strengthen his power — once hindered his country’s relationship with the United States. But under the second Trump administration, which dismantled U.S. Agency for International Development programs working on human rights issues in Kazakhstan, such concerns are no longer an irritant for Washington.

托卡耶夫的威权统治方式——他最近修改了哈萨克斯坦宪法以巩固个人权力——曾是哈美关系的绊脚石。但在第二任特朗普政府执政期间，随着美国国际开发署在哈萨克斯坦开展的人权项目被取消，此类顾虑已不再令华盛顿感到困扰。

The Kazakh leader has joined Mr. Trump’s Board of Peace. He signed up to the Abraham Accords even though Kazakhstan already had diplomatic relations with Israel. And he led a high-level delegation of Central Asian leaders to Washington last year, during which the Kazakh state mining firm signed a tungsten deal with a U.S. company that was later revealed to be backed by Mr. Trump’s sons.

这位哈萨克斯坦领导人加入了特朗普的“和平委员会”。他签署了《亚伯拉罕协议》，尽管哈萨克斯坦早已与以色列建立了外交关系。去年，他率领一个中亚国家领导人高级别代表团访问华盛顿，期间哈萨克斯坦国有矿业公司与一家美国公司签署了一项钨矿协议，后来被曝光该公司背后有特朗普儿子的支持。

去年11月，哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫（右二）在白宫出席由特朗普总统主持的晚宴，同席的还有其他中亚国家领导人。

It was just one of 29 pacts that Kazakhstan signed with U.S. companies, worth over $17 billion. They included a deal with Amazon’s Leo satellite internet service and an agreement with Nvidia, the U.S. chipmaker, and Firebird, an American cloud computing company, to build an A.I. data hub. Kazakhstan also agreed to a $4.2 billion deal to buy 300 rail cars from the American firm Wabtec.

这只是哈萨克斯坦与美国公司签署的29项协议之一，这些协议总价值超过170亿美元。它们包括与亚马逊的Leo卫星互联网服务达成的协议，以及与美国芯片制造商英伟达和美国云计算公司Firebird共建人工智能数据中心的协议。哈萨克斯坦还同意以42亿美元的价格从美国公司西屋制动购买300节铁路车厢。

During the trip to Washington, Mr. Tokayev proclaimed that Mr. Trump had been “sent by heaven.”

访问华盛顿期间，托卡耶夫盛赞特朗普是“上天派来的”。

Leaning too aggressively into the relationship with Mr. Trump could carry risks for Kazakhstan if the political winds change in Washington. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, while campaigning for re-election, has said that if Democrats take power in Congress, people will be questioned under oath about the involvement of Mr. Trump’s sons in the Kazakh tungsten deal.

不过，过度押注与特朗普的关系，一旦华盛顿政治风向生变，对哈萨克斯坦而言可能存在风险。佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫在竞选连任时曾表示，若民主党重掌国会，届时将有人被传唤宣誓作证，就特朗普之子参与哈萨克斯坦钨矿交易一事接受质询。

Some Western investors have worried that Russian and Chinese leverage over Kazakhstan could jeopardize supplies of critical resources to Western nations, should Moscow or Beijing decide to intervene. But so far, Kazakhstan been a reliable supplier, even as relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated over Ukraine.

一些西方投资者担心，如果莫斯科或北京决定进行干预，俄罗斯和中国对哈萨克斯坦的影响力可能危及西方国家获得关键资源的供应。但迄今为止，即便俄乌关系导致俄罗斯与西方关系持续恶化，哈萨克斯坦仍然是一个可靠的资源供应国。

A globally recognizable tech executive, high-spirited from preparing for a public offering, offers imprudent remarks criticizing the government. The state strikes back harder than anyone expects. Overnight, the bargain between a skyrocketing sector of the economy and the government is shattered.

一位在全球享有知名度的科技高管因筹备公开上市而情绪高昂，发表了批评政府的不审慎言论。国家随即发起了超出所有人预期的强硬反击。一夜之间，一个国家经济中正在飞升的行业与政府之间的默契被彻底粉碎。

If you think this story could be about Anthropic, you’re only half right. In 2020, the Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma found himself in the doghouse after he publicly rebuked Chinese regulators. Citing regulatory concerns, the authorities canceled the public offering of Ant Group, another company Mr. Ma helped found, and subsequently unleashed a regulatory storm that left few Chinese tech companies untouched.

如果你认为这个故事可能是关于Anthropic的，那你只说对了一半。2020年，阿里巴巴联合创始人马云在公开指责中国监管机构后发现自己陷入了困境。官方以监管问题为由，取消了马云参与创办的另一家公司蚂蚁集团的上市，并随后掀起了一场监管风暴，几乎没有哪家中国科技公司能够幸免于难。

The U.S. government is skating close to its own Jack Ma moment, when a government wounds a tech leader seemingly out of spite. Self-destructive American actions, not Chinese competition, may be the most significant threat to the evolution of A.I. for years to come, long after the government and Anthropic resolve their current dispute.

美国政府正滑向其自身的“马云时刻”，即政府似乎出于私怨而伤害一位科技领袖。在未来数年内，自我毁灭式的美国行动——而非中国的竞争——可能才是人工智能演进面临的最重大威胁，其影响在政府与Anthropic解决目前的纠纷后仍将长期存在。

On June 9, Anthropic released its model Fable 5, an adapted version of its powerful Mythos model, which has incredible capacity to find vulnerabilities in software. Anthropic’s chief executive, Dario Amodei, even said that companies that used Mythos had called it a “superweapon.” Three days later, the U.S. government issued an export control directive blocking use of Fable 5 by foreigners and noncitizens — including some of Anthropic’s own employees — which prompted Anthropic to disable all access to the model. A tangle of explanations behind this directive have been reported, including the risk of “jailbreak” (when a model bypasses built-in safety guardrails) and the risk of access by foreign adversaries. On Friday, the government permitted Anthropic to restore some users’ access to a version of Mythos, though negotiations are still underway about Fable 5.

6月9日，Anthropic推出Fable 5模型，这是其强大的Mythos模型的改编版本，具备寻找软件中漏洞的惊人能力。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代甚至表示，使用过Mythos的公司曾将其称为“超级武器”。三天后，美国政府发布了一项出口控制指令，阻止外国人及非公民（包括Anthropic自身的一些员工）使用Fable 5，这促使Anthropic禁用了对该模型的所有访问权限。坊间对该指令有着各种错综复杂的解释，包括存在“越狱”（即模型绕过内置安全防护栏）以及被外国敌对势力访问的风险。周五，官方允许Anthropic恢复部分用户对某一版本Mythos的访问，不过关于Fable 5的谈判仍在进行中。

Over the past decade, the U.S. government has used export controls to deal sometimes crippling blows to Chinese technology champions. The action against Anthropic upended this logic by turning this policy instrument against American companies, purportedly to exert the U.S. government’s grip over increasingly slippery A.I. models. The challenges of regulating A.I. at the frontier have now reportedly moved the government to ask Anthropic’s chief competitor, OpenAI, to limit the users for its own next model.

在过去十年中，美国政府曾利用出口管制对中国科技领军企业施加了有时是致命的打击。针对Anthropic的行动颠覆了这一逻辑，将这一政策工具转而对准了美国公司，表面上的理由是加强美国政府对日益难以掌控的人工智能模型的控制。据报道，监管前沿人工智能所面临的挑战目前已促使官方要求Anthropic的主要竞争对手OpenAI限制其下一个模型的使用者。

We often think of A.I. as a race between the United States and China. Instead we are seeing the emergence of an even more acute form of competition, between the public power of governments and the private power of ambitious companies. Both countries are struggling to determine whether their frontier A.I. companies are national champions or national security threats. A.I. labs in both countries are also starting to realize how much their operations depend on the state’s sufferance. The U.S. government needs to strike a better balance between ambition and control, lest it irrevocably damage its relationship with these companies and America’s long-term technological edge.

我们经常将人工智能看作是美国与中国之间的一场竞赛。但我们现在看到的是一种甚至更加剧烈的竞争形式的浮现，即政府的公权力与有雄心的公司的私权力之间的竞争。两国都在艰难地权衡其前沿人工智能公司究竟是国家领军企业还是国家安全威胁。两国的人工智能实验室也开始意识到，他们的运营在多大程度上依赖于国家的容忍。美国政府需要在雄心与控制之间取得更好的平衡，以免不可逆转地损害其与这些公司的关系，以及美国长期的技术优势。

The second Trump administration has careened from extreme to extreme on A.I. policy. It came into office de-emphasizing some A.I. safety concerns, downplaying harms to workers and preaching the virtues of a hands-off approach. Its stance shifted in March: The Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after the company protested the use of its A.I. models in autonomous weapons and domestic mass surveillance. Reports about Mythos’s capabilities the following month appear to have shocked the administration into taking safety more seriously. The confrontation around Fable 5 has been the latest turn in a dance between a company that proclaims a desire for safeguards and an administration that wants unfettered control over these models.

第二届特朗普政府在人工智能政策上经历了从一个极端到另一个极端的剧烈摇摆。它在执政之初淡化了一些对人工智能安全的担忧，低估了对劳动者的伤害，并宣扬不干涉方法的优点。其立场在3月发生了转变：在Anthropic抗议将其人工智能模型用于自主武器和国内大规模监控之后，五角大楼将该公司指定为供应链风险。次月，关于Mythos能力的报告似乎让特朗普政府大受震动，从而开始更加严肃地对待安全问题。一方是宣称渴望采取防护措施的公司，另一方是想要对这些模型进行全权控制的政府，围绕Fable 5的对抗是双方博弈的最新转折。

The Chinese government, meanwhile, has been overseeing its A.I. labs for considerably longer. It requires security assessments and tests models for their ability to anticipate Beijing’s sundry political sensitivities. The state has blocked Chinese companies from purchasing advanced Nvidia chips in an effort to favor the domestic chip industry, even after the Trump administration cleared these chips for sale to China. It has reportedly restricted overseas travel by certain A.I. researchers and told two of the founders of Manus, a popular A.I. agent that acts as a digital assistant, not to leave China while the government reviewed their company’s acquisition by Meta. The authorities soon after ordered the unwinding of the deal.

与此同时，中国政府对本国人工智能实验室的监管时间要长得多。它要求进行安全评估，并测试模型预测北京各种政治敏感性的能力。国家已阻止中国公司购买先进的英伟达芯片，以期扶持国内芯片产业，尽管特朗普政府已经批准将这些芯片销往中国。据报道，官方已限制了某些人工智能研究人员的因私出境，并通知Manus（一款作为数字助理使用的热门人工智能智能体）的两位创始人，在官方审查Meta对其公司的收购期间不要离开中国。此后不久，当局便下令取消了这笔交易。

Unlike in the United States, in China no one questions who will ultimately win the struggle between state and corporate power. But the effects of the regulatory storm Beijing unleashed in 2020 remain evident. Alibaba’s stock has lost around two-thirds of its value since Mr. Ma’s speech and Ant Group has still not been able to go public. Venture capital funding in China collapsed and is only now rebounding. These days, nearly any conversation with Chinese A.I. labs includes bitter complaints about government overreach.

与美国不同的是，在中国没有人质疑在国家权力与企业权力的斗争中最终谁会获胜。但北京在2020年引发的监管风暴的影响依然显而易见。自马云发表演讲以来，阿里巴巴的股票已经失去了大约三分之二的市值，而蚂蚁集团至今仍未能上市。中国的风险投资资金遭遇挫折，目前才刚刚开始回升。如今，与中国人工智能实验室交谈，几乎总是免不了听到对政府过度干预的抱怨。

The United States, with its system of legal protections and its deep capital markets pouring money into A.I., is not likely to suffer to the same degree. The companies and government officials are likely to reach an understanding. But Washington and American A.I. labs need to treat each other with greater sincerity and seriousness going forward.

拥有法律保护制度和向人工智能注入大笔资金的深厚资本市场的美国不太可能出现如此程度的问题。公司与政府官员很可能会达成某种谅解。但展望未来，华盛顿和美国的人工智能实验室需要以更大的诚意和更严肃的态度对待彼此。

First, the heads of A.I. labs need to stop their doom trolling. It makes little sense to make panicked claims about the destructive potential of A.I. without a plan to work with the government to address those risks. The current administration makes such cooperation particularly difficult because of its demonstrated willingness to punish companies to assert dominance or satisfy a political constituency. But the labs still must take more care to address A.I.’s transformative impacts.

首先，人工智能实验室的负责人需要停止他们的毁灭预言渲染。在没有与政府合作应对这些风险的计划的情况下，对人工智能的毁灭性潜力发出恐慌性的断言是毫无意义的。由于目前的政府表现出通过惩罚公司来确立主导地位或满足某一政治选民群体的意愿，此类合作变得格外困难。但实验室仍必须倾注更多心血来应对人工智能的变革性影响。

Second, the U.S. government needs to realize that the stakes of A.I. are far too high to allow a breakdown of trust. Despite a recent executive order that established a voluntary review program of highly advanced models, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has seemingly delighted in celebrating Anthropic’s troubles with the government. The administration has imposed major restrictions on Anthropic without offering sufficient explanation. Even if the government is nettled by the attitude of A.I. chiefs, it is irresponsible to treat them with contempt. American allies are wondering if they can rely on American A.I. models, and talented foreign researchers in American labs are reconsidering their career plans — neither of which serves American interests.

其次，美国政府需要意识到，人工智能干系重大，绝不能容许信任关系的破裂。尽管近期出台的一项行政令建立了一项针对高度先进模型的自愿审查计划，但国防部长皮特·海格塞斯似乎非常乐于将Anthropic与政府之间的麻烦说成是好事。政府在未提供充分解释的情况下就对Anthropic施加了重大限制。即使政府对人工智能负责人们的态度感到恼火，轻蔑地对待他们也是不负责任的。美国的盟友正怀疑他们是否可以信赖美国的人工智能模型，而美国实验室里富有才华的外国研究人员也正重新考虑他们的职业规划——这两者都不符合美国的利益。

Third, America’s government and its A.I. labs need to update their understanding of Chinese A.I. Beijing’s pronouncements on A.I. are distinctly less apocalyptic than Anthropic’s; Chinese firms are less able to invest in data centers (for lack of American chips) and more interested in applying A.I. to physical technologies. By most appearances, China is pursuing a substantially different vision of the A.I. future. Frictions within China may present an opportunity for the United States to put further distance between Chinese entrepreneurs and the overbearing Chinese state — but that would require the administration to drop policies that seem hostile toward foreign talent, including Chinese citizens.

第三，美国的政府及其人工智能实验室需要更新他们对中国人工智能的认知。北京方面对人工智能的声明显然远没有Anthropic那样具有末日色彩；中国企业投资数据中心的能力较弱（因为缺乏美国芯片），它们更感兴趣的是将人工智能应用于实体的技术。从外表来看，中国很大程度上正在追求一种实质上不同的人工智能未来愿景。中国内部的摩擦可能让美国有机会进一步拉开中国企业家与专断的中国政府的距离——但这需要特朗普政府放弃那些似乎对外国人才（包括中国公民）怀有敌意的政策。

The A.I. chaos of recent weeks is self-defeating. For the United States to win the A.I. future, it needs to do better at avoiding the missteps of Beijing.

最近几周的人工智能乱局是在自我毁灭。为了让美国赢取人工智能的未来，华盛顿需要更好地避免重蹈北京的覆辙。

The four-day cycle of attacks that Iran set off with the United States over the Strait of Hormuz has risked derailing the newly reached cease-fire in a war both sides are eager to end.

伊朗与美国围绕霍尔木兹海峡爆发的四天交火已经危及双方新达成的停火协议，而双方都渴望结束这场战争。

Yet for Iran, analysts say, it was a necessary gambit.

但分析人士表示，对伊朗而言，这是一次不得不进行的冒险之举。

Iran’s newfound power to disrupt traffic through a waterway that is pivotal to the global economy is critical leverage it cannot afford to lose — either at the negotiating table or back at war with the United States.

干扰这条对全球经济举足轻重的重要水道是伊朗新发现的能力，成为它手里最关键的一张牌。无论是在谈判桌上，还是将来重新与美国开战，这张牌它都绝不能失去。

Last week, Oman and the U.N. International Maritime Organization designated a new route through the waterway that passed only through Omani territorial waters. That could have threatened the linchpin of Iran’s entire strategy — to make sure it alone controlled the strait.

上周，阿曼与联合国国际海事组织划定了一条穿越该水道、仅途经阿曼领海的新航线。这可能会威胁到伊朗整个战略的核心，即确保这个海峡的掌控权完全在它的手里。

“Best-case or worst-case scenario, they need this leverage,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

国际危机组织伊朗问题高级分析师阿里·瓦埃兹表示：“无论是最好的情况还是最坏的情况，他们都需要这一筹码。”

It is not clear yet when or where Iran and the United States might meet again for talks. But should that happen, Mr. Vaez said, Iranian officials see their control over the strait as their best tool for extracting U.S. concessions.

目前尚不清楚伊美双方将在何时何地再次举行会谈。但瓦埃兹表示，倘若谈判重启，伊朗官员会将他们对海峡的控制视为迫使美国让步的最有力工具。

The Iranians are seeking relief from years of punishing sanctions if the two sides move forward on a nuclear deal. Such an agreement would most likely entail Iran handing over or diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — material that could have been used to construct a nuclear weapon.

 如果双方在核协议上取得进展，伊朗方面希望摆脱多年来的严厉制裁。这样的协议很可能意味着伊朗需要交出或稀释其高浓缩铀储备——这些材料本可用于制造核武器。

Iran’s potential weaponization of nuclear power, despite its insistence that the program is peaceful, was long seen as its main strategic deterrence. That was until the current war, when Iran demonstrated through limited attacks on the Strait of Hormuz that it could close the waterway and send the global economy into a tailspin.

尽管伊朗坚称其核计划出于和平目的，但将核能力武器化的潜力长期以来一直被视为它主要的战略威慑手段。但到了眼下这场战争，伊朗通过对霍尔木兹海峡的有限打击证明自己有能力封锁这条水道，让全球经济陷入混乱。

For Iran’s worst-case scenarios, the strait is central.

在伊朗预设的最坏情形下，海峡同样处于核心位置。

Some Iranian officials suspect the Trump administration may have signed a preliminary deal with Iran only to buy time — easing economic pressures ahead of U.S. midterm elections before returning to war after.

一些伊朗官员怀疑，特朗普政府与伊朗签署初步协议只是为了争取时间——在美国中期选举前缓解经济压力，以后再重启战争。

If that happened, Iran would again need its ability to wreak havoc in the strait.

如果真的如此，伊朗将再度需要在海峡制造混乱的能力。

美国国务卿鲁比奥上周在巴林首都麦纳麦。

“This is really critical. This is their main leverage,” Mr. Vaez said. “It doesn’t make any sense for them to allow it to erode before they have a final deal.”

“这非常关键。这是他们的主要筹码，”瓦埃兹说。“在达成最终协议之前，让这种筹码被削弱，是毫无道理的。”

Tehran feared this erosion was exactly the situation Washington may have been trying to engineer last week, regional experts said.

地区专家指出，德黑兰担忧的正是这种侵蚀——他们认为，华盛顿上周的一系列动作或许正是试图制造这种局面。

During a visit to several Gulf Arab states last week, Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, repeatedly asserted that free navigation would return to the strait.

上周访问多个海湾阿拉伯国家期间，美国国务卿鲁比奥多次强调海峡的自由航行将得以恢复。

Then came the move by Oman and the International Maritime Organization to establish a new route that bypasses Iranian waters.

随后，阿曼和国际海事组织采取行动，建立了一条绕过伊朗水域的新航线。

“The Iranians understood they’re losing control,” said Farzan Sabet, an Iran analyst at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland. They probably began to realize their influence works only “during wartime and during a hostile cease-fire, with regular hostilities.”

瑞士日内瓦高级国际关系与发展学院的伊朗问题分析师法赞·萨贝特说：“伊朗人明白他们正在失去控制权。”他们可能开始认识到，自己的影响力只在“战时，或虽停火却充满敌对、且摩擦不断”的情况下才有效。

That is why Iran’s response to the newly announced route was so swift, experts say, in the shape of a strike on Thursday against a Singapore-flagged container ship that used it.

这正是伊朗对新航线反应如此迅速的原因——周四，伊朗向一艘使用该航线、悬挂新加坡国旗的集装箱船发动了袭击。

Tehran never claimed responsibility for that attack, nor for a second strike on a vessel on Saturday, both of which elicited U.S. military strikes in return and subsequent Iranian retaliation on U.S. military targets in the Gulf.

德黑兰未承认对那次袭击负责，也没有承认周六对另一艘船只发动了第二次袭击。这两起事件都引发了美国的军事打击，继而又引发伊朗对海湾地区美军目标的还击。

On Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, appeared to deliver a veiled warning to expect more instability if attempts to bypass Iranian control over the waterway persisted.

周日，伊朗外长阿拉格奇似乎发出了一个含蓄的警告：若外界继续试图绕过伊朗对这条水道的掌控，局势将进一步动荡。

“Any attempt to adopt new or separate arrangements from those currently being pursued by the Islamic Republic will only lead to further complications, delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and an increase in tensions,” he said at a news conference during a visit to Iraq’s capital, Baghdad

他在访问伊拉克首都巴格达期间举行的记者会上表示：“任何试图在伊斯兰共和国目前所推行安排之外另起炉灶的举动只会导致局势更加复杂，延误霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放，并加剧紧张态势。”

周日，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇与伊拉克外长福阿德·侯赛因在巴格达。

Iran’s rulers see the newly devised routes through Omani waters as directly contradicting the fifth article of what Washington signed onto in its memorandum of understanding with Tehran, which laid the foundation for a cease-fire.

伊朗领导层认为，经由阿曼领海的新航线直接违背了华盛顿与德黑兰签署的谅解备忘录第五条，正是这份文件奠定了停火基础。

In their reading of the vaguely worded document, this article granted Iran oversight of the waterway because it charges Iran with ensuring safe passage through the strait.

按照伊朗方面对这份措辞含糊文件的理解，这一条款赋予了伊朗对这条水道的监督权，因为条款要求伊朗确保海峡的安全通行。

It also says that Iran is to conduct dialogue with Oman, the other nation bordering the strait, “to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.”

该条款还规定，伊朗应与海峡沿岸的另一国家阿曼进行对话，“以明确霍尔木兹海峡未来的管理和海事服务安排”。

From Iran’s perspective, analysts said, the route Oman organized with the U.N. maritime organization — and without consulting Tehran — violated that, and had to be challenged.

分析人士指出，在伊朗看来，阿曼与国际海事组织在没有与德黑兰协商的情况下开辟新航线违反了这一条款，因而必须予以回击。

Iran’s willingness to provoke conflict amid the peace process aligns with the approach of the country’s new rulers, who want to show they are as willing to strike a deal with Washington as they are to go to war with it, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran analyst who oversees the European Council of Foreign Relations’ Iran Nuclear Monitor.

欧洲对外关系委员会伊朗核问题观察项目负责人、伊朗问题分析师埃莉·杰拉迈耶表示，伊朗在和平进程中挑起冲突的意愿与该国新领导层的策略一致——他们希望表明，他们既愿与华盛顿谈判，也不惮于与之兵戎相见。

Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, who was killed in the opening salvos of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in February, had a “no war, no peace” strategy, she said. He long avoided direct confrontation with Washington, but also barred direct high-level talks.

她表示，伊朗前最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊奉行“不战不和”战略，哈梅内伊在2月美以联合军事行动的首轮打击中身亡。他长期避免与华盛顿直接对抗，同时也不允许双方展开高层的直接对话。

The political elites around his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, “have a different risk appetite,” she said. “The regime is prepared to escalate in bold ways, for example, the recent hits in the strait that could derail the M.O.U. But it is also prepared to unlock peace with America through a new direct, high-level negotiation track.”

她说，围绕其子、继任者穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的政治精英“有着不同的风险偏好”。“这个政权准备以大胆的方式升级局势，比如最近在海峡发动的可能破坏谅解备忘录的打击行动；但与此同时，它也准备通过新的直接的高级别谈判渠道，与美国开启和平进程。”

Iran’s leaders may also believe this is the right moment to take risks, said Mr. Sabet, because they believe Mr. Trump will be reluctant to restart the war until after the U.S. midterm elections.

萨贝特认为，伊朗领导层或许也相信，当下正是冒险的有利时机——他们判断，在美国中期选举结束之前，特朗普不会轻易重启战争。

德黑兰街头表现美军飞机被困于霍尔木兹海峡的宣传画，摄于4月。

Iran and the United States both have good reason to keep negotiating in the face of a frequently violated cease-fire.

面对一份屡遭违反的停火协议，伊朗和美国都有充分理由继续谈判。

For the Trump administration, the war is domestically unpopular, and there is most likely little appetite to return to a conflict that set off a global energy crisis. For Iran, facing economic disaster, oil sanctions waivers and the possibility of unlocking billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets are major attractions.

对特朗普政府而言，这场战争在国内颇不得人心，而且很可能没有人愿意重蹈覆辙，再次卷入这场引发全球能源危机的冲突。而对面临经济灾难的伊朗来说，解除石油制裁以及解冻数十亿美元被冻结资产的可能性都极具吸引力。

“The economic and military costs of a return to conflict produce enough incentives for both sides to try to keep the memorandum alive,” said Mr. Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

国际危机组织的瓦埃兹表示：“重返冲突的经济和军事成本为双方提供了足够的动机来努力维持这份备忘录。”

Most political analysts expect Washington and Tehran to continue to extend their initial 60-day negotiating period for many months.

大多数政治分析人士预计，华盛顿和德黑兰将继续将最初的60天谈判期延长数月。

But the repeated flare-ups in violence may mean that the already fragile peace process drags on with little progress.

但暴力冲突的反复爆发可能意味着本已脆弱的和平进程将拖沓不前，难有进展。

The more negotiators have to focus on addressing threats to the interim agreement, the less time they have to hammer out an agreement to comprehensively end the conflict and reach a nuclear deal.

谈判代表越是需要关注应对临时协议面临的威胁，他们就越没有时间来敲定一份全面结束冲突并达成核协议的协定。

“They will have to keep moving to figure out, ‘what do we do about this, what do we do about that?’” said Mr. Sabet of the Geneva Institute. “That doesn’t bode well for progress on the substantive issues that were supposed to come in this second round of talks.”

瑞士日内瓦高级国际关系与发展学院的萨贝特表示：“他们将不得不不停地应付各种问题，‘这件事怎么办，那件事怎么办？’。这对原本应该在第二轮谈判中讨论的那些实质性议题的进展来说，并非好兆头。”

About a month ago, the Chinese dissident Dong Guangping spent 36 hours at sea in an inflatable rubber boat with a sputtering engine, a peeling face and a dying phone before getting detained in South Korea.

大约一个月前，中国异见人士董广平驾驶一艘充气橡皮艇，在海上漂流了36个小时后，最终在韩国被拘留。期间，皮划艇的引擎状况不断，他的面部晒伤脱皮，手机电量也耗尽了。

But on Saturday, Mr. Dong, 68, told The New York Times that he had flown to Toronto, ending a treacherous and decade-long search for freedom. He also recounted details of his voyage across the Yellow Sea from China to South Korea for the first time.

但周六，68岁的董广平对《纽约时报》表示，他已飞抵多伦多，为他长达十年、充满艰险的自由追寻之旅画上了句号。他还首次详细讲述了自己从中国穿越黄海前往韩国的航行经历。

Mr. Dong, a critic of China’s ruling Communist Party, had been trying for more than 10 years to escape his country, where he was imprisoned several times and faced police surveillance and an exit ban. He was thrown out of Thailand and Vietnam, and picked up by mainland Chinese fishermen as he attempted to swim to Taiwan.

作为中国执政的共产党的批评者，董广平十多年来一直试图逃离。在国内，他曾多次入狱，并长期受到警方监视并被限制出境。他曾被泰国和越南驱逐出境，也曾在试图游泳前往台湾时，被中国大陆渔民救起。

Mr. Dong’s friends hoped that his recent escape across the Yellow Sea to South Korea would end differently — and they were right.

董广平的朋友们曾希望他最近这次穿越黄海逃往韩国的行动会有不同的结局——事实证明，他们的希望成真了。

His journey started before sunrise on May 24, when he set off from the coastal Chinese city of Weihai in a gray inflatable boat.

他的旅程始于5月24日拂晓前，当时，他驾驶着一艘灰色充气艇从中国沿海城市威海出发。

Three years earlier, another Chinese dissident had fled to South Korea by jet ski and was eventually permitted to leave after facing months of detention and legal limbo.

三年前，也有一位中国异见人士驾驶摩托艇逃往韩国，在经历数月拘留和法律困境后，最终获准离境。

That journey was an inspiration for Mr. Dong, though he said he aimed his boat for Japan because he was more familiar with it. His plan was to eventually fly to Canada, where his wife and daughter live.

这启发了董广平，不过他说，他最初的目标是日本，因为自己对那里更熟悉。他的计划是最终飞往加拿大，他的妻子和女儿都生活在那里。

He said he brought 42 gallons of gasoline, enough for a journey that he estimated would stretch nearly 440 miles, and a supply of cooked beef and crackers.

他说，自己带了42加仑汽油，估计足以支撑600多公里，此外还带了一些熟牛肉和饼干。

Mr. Dong, who had never operated a boat before, said he feared the engine would fail. To protect it, he kept his speed low, crawling along at just three miles per hour.

董广平此前从未驾驶过船只，他说他担心引擎会出故障。为此，他始终保持低速行驶，每小时仅行驶约5公里。

He used his smartphone to chart a course around the Korean Peninsula toward Japan, relying on the sun during the clear, scorching day to keep his bearings without draining his battery.

他用智能手机规划了一条绕过朝鲜半岛前往日本的航线，当天天气晴朗、炙热，为了节省手机电量，他靠太阳辨别方向。

In the evening, he recalled, he experienced a brief moment of peace at sunset, with the moon in the sky. “The scenery was truly, truly beautiful,” he said.

他回忆说，傍晚，他在日落时分享受了片刻的宁静，月亮挂在天空中。“那景色真是、真是美极了，”他说。

But the next day was unforgiving.

但第二天的天气就变得毫不留情了。

The weather shifted, turning the sky into a featureless grayish white. With the sun obscured by clouds, he lost his bearings.

天气骤变，天空变成了一片单调的灰白色。云层遮住太阳后，他迷失了方向。

“The sea and sky are just a vast expanse of white, and you can’t tell which way is which,” he said.

“海天白茫茫一片，根本分不清东南西北，”他说。

Then his phone died, and his power bank was no help. He said the prospect of having no communications terrified him.

随后，他的手机没电了，充电宝也不顶用。他说，失去通讯联系的可能性令他深感恐惧。

The boat’s engine also began to betray him as seaweed and debris clogged its intake. It kept stalling whenever he tried to slow down. After 36 hours of grueling effort, he said, he had traveled only 124 miles.

发动机也开始出现故障，海藻和杂物堵塞了进水口。每次他试图减速，发动机就会熄火。他说，经过36个小时的艰苦航行，船只行驶了约200公里。

That’s when he picked up his speed and switched to his backup plan of heading toward South Korea. At certain points, he said, the only thing on his mind was survival.

就在这时，他提高速度，启动备用方案，转而驶向韩国。他说，在某些时刻，他脑子里唯一的念头就是活下去。

“You’re facing a life-or-death juncture,” he said. “If your decision-making is poor, then you’re dead. Everything else — thinking about family, friends, work, money, food and water — none of that was useful.”

“你正面临生死抉择，”他说。“如果判断失误，你就死定了。其他一切——想一想家人、朋友、工作、钱、食物和水——都没用。”

By the evening, he began seeing lights in the distance. He said he was relieved and steered toward them.

到了傍晚，他开始看到远处的灯光。他说自己松了一口气，便朝那些灯光驶去。

He said he then encountered a construction vessel. He cried for help, but he couldn’t be heard over noise from the ship’s propellers.

他说，随后他遇到了一艘工程船。他大声呼救，但船的螺旋桨噪音太大，对方听不见。

Moments later, he saw a fishing boat and called for help again as he watched a fisherman pull in his net.

片刻之后，他又看见了一艘渔船，看到一名渔民正在收网，便再次呼救。

“I thought I was going to die” from exhaustion, Mr. Dong said. “I was already in a terrible state.”

“我当时觉得自己快要累死了，”董广平说。“我已经不行了。”

A fisherman agreed to take him onto the boat and called the coast guard. South Korean coast guard officials then detained him and brought him back to land to face questioning.

一名渔民同意让他上船，并打电话报警。韩国海岸警卫队官员随后将他拘留，并把他带上岸接受讯问。

The exact legal process that led to Mr. Dong’s release was not immediately clear on Saturday.

截至周六，董广平得以最终获释的具体法律程序尚不清楚。

Kim Joo-kwang, the lawyer who represented him in South Korea, said on Saturday that he could not comment. A spokesman for the court that handled Mr. Dong’s case could not immediately be reached.

在韩国代理其案件的律师金州光（音）周六表示，他无法置评。记者暂时无法联系到负责处理董广平案件的法院发言人。

The Chinese authorities also did not respond to a request for comment on Saturday. A Chinese foreign ministry official said at the time of Mr. Dong’s arrival in South Korea that officials in China were not aware of his situation.

中国官方周六同样没有回应置评请求。在董广平抵达韩国时，中国外交部一名官员曾表示，中方不了解他的情况。

Mr. Dong said that the true turning point in his journey didn’t happen at sea, but in the clinical confines of a South Korean coast guard station where officials granted him access to a lawyer.

董广平说，他旅程的真正转折点并不是发生在海上，而是在韩国海岸警卫队的医务室里。在那里，官员让他见了律师。

“I knew then they would send me to Canada, because they were proceeding according to legal procedures,” he said, contrasting his experience there with his past captures in China, Thailand and Vietnam. “As long as it is a democratic country run by the rule of law, they would not send me back to China.”

“那时我就知道，他们会把我送去加拿大，因为他们是按照法律程序来办事的，”他说。他将在韩国的经历与此前在中国、泰国和越南被抓时的遭遇作了对比：“只要是一个民主法治国家，他们就不会把我送回中国。”

Days later, Coast Guard officials requested an arrest warrant for him. But a judge denied it, Mr. Dong said, and the authorities eventually allowed him to leave the country.

几天后，海岸警卫队官员申请对他发出逮捕令。但董广平说，法官驳回了申请，当局最终允许他离境。

Mr. Dong said he was housed in a refugee center in Incheon, a city near Seoul, with asylum seekers from Myanmar, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and other countries. He passed his evenings watching pickup soccer at the facility and later World Cup matches on television.

董广平说，他被安置在首尔附近仁川的一个难民中心，与来自缅甸、乌兹别克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家的寻求庇护者住在一起。晚上，他会在中心围观自发组织的足球赛，后来还在电视上看世界杯比赛。

One day, he said, his lawyer secured a temporary exit permit that allowed him to visit a monument to the Korean War in Seoul. He said that he had been curious about the history of the conflict and wanted to compare South Korea’s portrayal of events with the propaganda he had been raised on in China.

他说，有一天，律师为他申请到一张临时外出许可，让他得以前往首尔参观一处朝鲜战争纪念设施。他说，自己一直对这段历史感到好奇，想看看韩国对这段历史的叙述与自己从小在中国接受的宣传有何不同。

Then the day finally arrived: He was flying to Toronto.

终于，那一天来临：他登上了飞往多伦多的航班。

“It felt like I was dreaming,” he said.

“感觉就像在做梦一样，”他说。

When he boarded the plane and settled into his aisle seat, he said, his mind was flooded with so many thoughts that his head ached. To stop thinking, he watched the science fiction movies “Avatar” and “Interstellar.”

他说，登上飞机、在靠过道的座位坐下后，他脑海中思绪涌动，几乎头痛欲裂。为了停止胡思乱想，他先后看了科幻电影《阿凡达》和《星际穿越》。

Zang Xihong, a fellow Chinese activist who goes by the pen name Sheng Xue and helped to coordinate his escape, was among those who greeted him at Toronto Pearson International Airport on Friday evening.

帮助协调此次逃亡行动、笔名“盛雪”的中国活动人士臧锡红是周五傍晚在多伦多皮尔逊国际机场迎接他的人之一。

“I’m very happy,” Mr. Dong said in a video interview from her home a few hours later. “Sitting here now, it feels like I’ve come home.”

“我很高兴，”几个小时后，董广平在盛雪家中接受视频采访时说。“现在坐在这里，感觉就像回到了家。”

The Canadian authorities did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

加拿大官方暂未回应置评请求。

Mr. Dong added that he hoped to keep working on a cause he began chasing in 1999, when he signed a letter about the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing — the initial act that angered the Chinese authorities.

董广平还表示，他希望继续投身于一项始于1999年的事业——那一年，他在一封有关1989年北京天安门广场事件的联署信上签名，正是这一举动让他第一次触怒了中国当局。

“It is necessary to achieve constitutional democracy in China,” he said. “I treat this as what I need to do for the rest of my life.”

“在中国实现宪政民主是必要的，”他表示。“我将把此作为余生的事业。”