I was a child during the Vietnam War, and it was impossible to miss antiwar protests. I remember a common sentiment best expressed by Senator George McGovern: “I’m tired of old men dreaming up wars for young men to fight.”

我在越战期间还是个孩子，那时几乎不可能不注意到反战抗议。我记得当时有一种普遍情绪，充分体现在了参议员乔治·麦戈文的一句话中：“我厌倦了老年人构想战争，却让年轻人去打。”

And here we go again.

而现在，这似乎又在重演。

President Trump has reached a fork in his Iran war. One path would be diplomatic, and Trump has tried to reassure financial markets that we’re headed that way. Iran is “‘begging’ us to make a deal,” he claimed.

特朗普总统在伊朗战争问题上走到了一个岔路口。一条路是外交途径，特朗普也试图让金融市场放心，我们正朝着那个方向前进。他声称，伊朗正在“‘恳求’我们达成协议”。

The problem is that Iran is not in fact begging for a deal. On the contrary, it has found fabulous leverage by closing the Strait of Hormuz to most traffic other than its own. Iranians must be thinking that they largely gave up their nuclear program in the accord with President Barack Obama, and they got a measly $400 million for that (later, there was more). This month, all Iran had to do was block the Strait of Hormuz for a few weeks, and the Trump administration lifted some oil sanctions that could amount to upward of $14 billion. No wonder Iran seems to feel it has the upper hand.

问题在于，伊朗实际上并没有在恳求达成协议。恰恰相反，它通过将霍尔木兹海峡关闭、只允许本国船只通行，获得了巨大的筹码。伊朗人想必在想，他们在与奥巴马总统达成的协议中基本上放弃了核计划，却只得到了区区4亿美元（后来又获得了一些）。而在这个月，伊朗只需要将霍尔木兹海峡封锁几周，特朗普政府就解除了部分石油制裁，其价值可能高达140亿美元。难怪伊朗似乎觉得自己占了上风。

So while Trump may want an offramp, his conundrum is that any deal reached now would be substantially worse than Iran’s reported offer last month (a three-year pause in all uranium enrichment and strict limits thereafter).

因此，尽管特朗普可能希望找到一个台阶下，但他面临的难题在于，现在达成的任何协议都会远逊于伊朗上个月据称提出的条件（即暂停所有铀浓缩活动三年，并在此后施加严格限制）。

I’m in favor of the diplomatic path, but let’s be honest: Any deal would be a pretty bad one and would strengthen a brutal regime that oppresses its people and menaces the region.

我支持外交途径，但实话实说：任何协议都可能相当糟糕，并且会巩固一个压迫本国人民、威胁整个地区安全的残暴政权。

Because the diplomatic option is so unappealing, Trump seems poised to seize an even worse one: dispatching ground troops to invade Iran. He is sending thousands of Marines and paratroopers to the region, and The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering whether to send another 10,000 ground troops.

由于外交选项如此缺乏吸引力，特朗普似乎准备选择一条更糟糕的道路：派遣地面部队入侵伊朗。他正在向该地区增派数千名海军陆战队员和伞兵，而《华尔街日报》报道称，五角大楼正在考虑是否再增派1万名地面部队。

“This is a dangerous point,” Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran watcher at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “Maybe Trump has no choice but to go down this path, because to go to the table right now would really admit defeat. But this is the quandary of his own making.”

“这是一个危险的时刻，”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学资深伊朗问题专家瓦利·纳斯尔告诉我。“也许特朗普别无选择，只能走这条路，因为现在走到谈判桌前就等于承认失败。但这是他自己造成的困境。”

The most discussed target for seizure is Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export base. Yes, the Marines probably could conquer Kharg, even though the Iranians have reportedly laid traps and improved defenses. As Senator Lindsey Graham, the Trump whisperer, said, “We did Iwo Jima; we can do this.” What Graham didn’t mention was that 26,000 Americans were killed or wounded capturing the Japanese island of Iwo Jima near the end of World War II.

最受关注的打击目标是哈尔克岛——伊朗的主要石油出口基地。是的，海军陆战队或许能拿下哈尔克岛，尽管据报道伊朗人已经布设了陷阱并加强了防御。正如特朗普的心腹、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆所说：“我们打下过硫磺岛，我们也能拿下这里。”格雷厄姆没有提到的是，在二战末期攻占日本硫磺岛时，有2.6万名美军伤亡。

The challenge isn’t just seizing Kharg; the greater nightmare would be protecting troops there, day after day, week after week, from drones and other attacks.

问题不仅在于占领哈尔克岛，更大的噩梦在于此后如何一天天、一周周地保护驻扎在那里的部队免受无人机和其他攻击。

The United States has been unable to fully protect its own hardened military bases in the region at much greater distances from Iran, forcing soldiers to evacuate to hotels. “Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable,” my Times colleagues Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt reported. So if we can’t protect our bases, how will we protect Marines dropped off on an Iranian island?

美国在该地区拥有多处坚固的军事基地，距离伊朗要远得多，但即便如此，美军也未能完全保护这些基地，士兵们被迫撤离到酒店。“美军在该地区使用的13个军事基地中，有许多几乎无法居住，”我在《纽约时报》的同事海伦·库珀和埃里克·施密特报道称。那么，如果我们连自己的基地都保护不了，又该如何保护被投放到一座伊朗岛屿上的海军陆战队员呢？

Why seize Kharg anyway? The theory advanced by hawks is that without oil revenues Iran would be forced to surrender. “Control that island, let this regime die on a vine,” urged Graham.

那为什么还要夺取哈尔克岛？鹰派的理论是，如果失去石油收入，伊朗将被迫投降。“控制那个岛，让这个政权自生自灭，”格雷厄姆敦促道。

Unfortunately, that theory is probably wrong.

不幸的是，这种理论很可能是错误的。

“Even if we take Kharg, Iran won’t capitulate,” Dennis Citrinowicz, formerly the top Iran watcher in Israel Defense Intelligence, told me. “And everything’s going to escalate, and the prices of oil and whatever will be dramatically higher.”

“即使我们拿下哈尔克岛，伊朗也不会投降，”曾任以色列国防军情报局首席伊朗问题分析师丹尼斯·西特里诺维奇告诉我。“一切都会不断升级，油价等等都将大幅上涨。”

If Trump wanted to seize territory, the better choice might be several small islands — Abu Musa and the Tunb islands — that are also claimed by the United Arab Emirates. A joint American and Emirati force could seize them and Emiratis could occupy them.

如果特朗普真的想夺取领土，更好的选择或许是几个较小的岛屿——阿布穆萨岛和大小通布岛——阿联酋也对这些岛屿提出了主权主张。美国与阿联酋的联合部队可以夺取这些岛屿，然后由阿联酋方面驻守。

But even that would be a huge escalation. The truth is that any seizure of Iranian-controlled land would most likely lead Iran to retaliate by attacking energy infrastructure around the region — and, more terrifying, desalination plants that provide the water on which some Gulf cities depend. With refineries out of commission, we could face oil and gas shortages for years to come. The Houthis in Yemen might also join the fray by blocking ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is the Red Sea choke point equivalent to Hormuz on the Persian Gulf.

但即便如此，这也将是一次巨大的升级。现实是，任何夺取伊控领土的行动都极有可能招致伊朗的报复，比如攻击该地区的能源基础设施——更可怕的是，袭击为一些海湾城市提供水源的海水淡化厂。一旦炼油设施瘫痪，我们可能会在未来数年面临石油和天然气短缺。也门的胡塞武装也可能加入冲突，通过封锁曼德海峡来阻断航运。曼德海峡是红海的咽喉要道，相当于波斯湾的霍尔木兹海峡。

“I don’t see this ending very soon,” Nasr warned. “I think the risk of this becoming uglier, with a lot of costs to the United States, is quite high.”

“我不认为这会在短期内结束，”纳斯尔警告说。“我认为局势变得更加糟糕、让美国付出巨大代价的风险相当高。”

Trump’s aim if he dispatches ground troops is probably “to escalate to de-escalate,” hoping that he can gain leverage over Iran and get a better bargain. That’s possible. But my guess is the opposite: Collapsing financial markets would give Iran even more leverage than it has now.

如果特朗普派遣地面部队，他的目的很可能是“以升级促降级”，希望借此获得对伊朗的筹码，从而谈成一笔更有利的协议。这种可能性是存在的。但我更倾向于相反的判断：金融市场的崩溃反而会让伊朗获得比现在更大的筹码。

Iran’s regime may also have more strategic patience than we do. Remember that after Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, Iran recovered its territory by 1982 but was so enraged that it refused a cease-fire and spent another six years fighting in the hope of overthrowing the Iraqi regime. Do we have the same staying power?

伊朗政权可能也比我们更有战略耐心。别忘了，1980年伊拉克入侵伊朗后，伊朗在1982年收复了失地，但因愤怒而拒绝停火，又打了六年仗，希望能推翻伊拉克政权。我们有同样的持久力吗？

For all the uncertainties, one truth I feel deeply from having seen war up close: Old men should not fix their messes by dispatching young people to die in unnecessary wars.

尽管存在诸多不确定性，但有一个我在近距离目睹战争后深信不疑的道理：老一辈不应通过让年轻人为不必要的战争送命来收拾他们自己制造的烂摊子。

Jared Isaacman was in his office in mid-January, barely a month into his job as NASA administrator, when his cellphone rang.

|1月中旬，贾里德·艾萨克曼就任NASA局长才一个月，正在办公室里，他的手机突然响了。

“Jared, I want to check in with you,” said President Donald Trump, as Isaacman recounted the conversation. “Are we doing something in the 2028 window for Mars? What do you think about the nuclear rocket?”

“贾里德，我想跟你聊聊，”唐纳德·特朗普总统在电话里说，艾萨克曼回忆这段对话。“我们在2028年这个时间窗口有没有针对火星的相关计划？你对核动力火箭怎么看？”

Isaacman’s agency is on the verge of one of the most momentous space landmarks of the modern era: the launch of Artemis II, a mission that is set to propel astronauts farther from the planet than any human beings have traveled in history as they loop around the moon. And yet the president was instead focused on what would come next.

艾萨克曼领导的NASA正处在现代航天史上最具里程碑意义的时刻之一：阿耳忒弥斯二号发射任务即将实施。按照计划，执行此次任务的宇航员将绕月飞行，距离地球之远将超越人类历史上任何一次太空航行。总统的注意力却已经投向了这项任务之后的未来。

Trump, who turns 80 this year, grew up in the days of Apollo, when spacefarers voyaged to another world and fired imaginations back on the one they left behind. Trump, however, wants to top the achievements of Apollo 11 and its brethren. A moon base! A nuclear rocket! A trip to Mars! And whatever it will be, it has to be huge, and it has to get started before he is due to leave office in January 2029.

今年将迎来80岁生日的特朗普成长于阿波罗计划的年代。当时宇航员奔赴另一个星球，令地球上的人们浮想联翩。而如今，特朗普想要超越阿波罗11号及其他阿波罗系列任务创下的成就。月球基地！核动力火箭！火星之旅！无论最终要实现什么，规模必须足够宏大，而且必须在他2029年1月卸任前正式启动。

The man who slaps his names on buildings and dreams of adding his face to Mount Rushmore hopes to make history by pushing space exploration to new heights, literally and figuratively. No president since NASA’s glory days under John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson has pressed the space agency as hard as Trump.

这个热衷于把自己的名字刻在各大建筑上、梦想着把自己的头像加到拉什莫尔山总统群雕里的男人希望将太空探索推向新的高度——无论是字面意义还是象征意义，以此来创造历史。自肯尼迪与约翰逊执政时期的NASA黄金岁月以来，没有任何一任美国总统像特朗普这样对航天局施加如此之大的推动力度。

The upcoming launch of Artemis II will be the first step in the journey. Four astronauts are scheduled to fly to the moon as soon as Wednesday.

即将实施的阿耳忒弥斯二号发射将是这段征程的第一步。四名宇航员计划最早于本周三启程，执行绕月飞行任务。

1月，NASA局长贾里德·艾萨克曼（左二）与阿耳忒弥斯二号任务机组人员在肯尼迪航天中心合影。

Trump wants to be on hand when they get off the ground, if all goes well, to celebrate a milestone achievement for America and, he hopes, for his own legacy.

如果一切顺利，特朗普希望亲临发射现场，见证火箭升空。他要为美国的这一里程碑式成就庆贺，也希望这能成为自己政治遗产中的一笔。

In an interview, Isaacman said the president’s goals were driven by a constellation of national security, commercial, resource and technological interests, as well as his preternatural instinct for grand undertakings.

在一次采访中，艾萨克曼表示，总统的这些目标背后是国家安全、商业、资源与技术利益的多重考量，同时也源于他对宏大事业异乎寻常的敏锐直觉。

“The president knows the importance of taking on big, bold endeavors and he does it across all of the important technological domains,” Isaacman said. “So when he talks to me about returning to the moon, he doesn’t talk about a repeat of Apollo. He says: Do we build a moon base? What does the lunar economy look like? We’re not just going to plant the flag.”

“总统深知开展宏大、大胆事业的重要性，而且他在所有关键的技术领域都在践行这一点，”艾萨克曼说。“所以当他和我谈及重返月球时，他说的不是重复阿波罗计划。他会问：我们要不要建月球基地？月球经济会是什么样子？我们要做的不仅仅是插上一面国旗。”

In fact, Isaacman said, Trump has made clear that humans need to stay. “What I have heard him say many times is, ‘Make sure when we go back that we are not going for the brief Apollo program,’” Isaacman said. “He specifically said, ‘We better be doing more than getting rocks this time.’”

艾萨克曼还说，事实上，特朗普已经明确表态，人类必须在月球驻留。“我多次听他说过：‘一定要确保，我们这次回去，不是开展像阿波罗计划那样短暂的任务，’”艾萨克曼回忆道。“他还特别强调：‘这次我们最好不要只带回几块石头。’”

Liz Huston, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that the president is “building on the transformational achievements” of his first term. “With President Trump’s America-first policies, the United States will lead humanity into space and enter a new era of groundbreaking achievements in space technology and exploration.”

白宫发言人莉兹·休斯顿在声明中表示，总统正在其首个任期的“变革性成就基础上继续前行”。“凭借特朗普总统的美国优先政策，美国将带领人类走向太空，开启航天技术与太空探索领域突破性成就的新时代。”

Trump was not exactly a space aficionado before coming to office. He is not known for waxing romantically about watching Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin land on the moon in 1969 when he was 23 years old.

入主白宫前，特朗普算不上航天爱好者。1969年尼尔·阿姆斯特朗与巴兹·奥尔德林实现月球登陆时，他23岁，但从未有人听说过他深情追忆当年观看登月直播的经历。

NASA拟建月球基地的艺术概念图。

When a 10-year-old boy asked Trump about space in 2015 during a campaign stop in New Hampshire, the candidate seemed indifferent. “Right now, we have bigger problems — you understand that?” he said. “We’ve got to fix our potholes.”

2015年，特朗普在新罕布什尔州举行竞选活动时，一个10岁的男孩向他询问太空相关的问题，当时这位总统候选人显得漠不关心。“眼下，我们有更棘手的问题——你明白吗？”他说。“我们得先把路上的坑洼补好。”

But along the way, he became persuaded that fixing potholes was not exactly the same as reaching for the stars. Just weeks before the 2016 election, his campaign’s surrogates pledged “a new vision” for America’s space program.

但随着时间推移，他逐渐意识到，修补路面坑洼与奔赴星辰大海终究不是一回事。2016年大选前几周，他的竞选团队代言人承诺，要为美国的航天计划勾勒“全新愿景”。

“During the campaign, he saw the linkages between space and the larger ‘Make America Great’ grand vision,” said Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, who served as executive secretary of the National Space Council, which Trump reconstituted in his first term.

“竞选期间，他看清了太空事业与‘让美国再次伟大’这一更宏大愿景之间的关联，”乔治·华盛顿大学太空政策研究所所长斯科特·佩斯说。佩斯曾担任美国国家太空委员会执行秘书，该委员会正是特朗普在首个任期内重新组建的。

Kennedy set the goal of reaching the moon not out of love of exploration, but to compete with the Soviets. Once Americans won the space race, the public and presidents largely lost interest.

肯尼迪当年定下登月目标并非出于对太空探索的热爱，而是为了与苏联展开竞争。一旦美国赢得了这场太空竞赛，美国公众与历任总统就基本失去了对航天事业的兴趣。

Richard Nixon scrapped the final three Apollo moonshots and shifted resources into building a workmanlike space shuttle. Ronald Reagan kicked off the development of a permanent crewed space station, which Bill Clinton transformed into a joint venture with the Russians. George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush each set sights on returning to the moon and then going to Mars, but neither got far. Barack Obama wanted to land astronauts on an asteroid, a vision that went nowhere.

尼克松取消了阿波罗计划的最后三次登月任务，将资源转向打造一款实用性更强的航天飞机。里根启动了永久性载人空间站的研发，比尔·克林顿则将其转变为美俄合作项目。老布什与小布什都曾定下先重返月球、再登陆火星的目标，却都未能取得实质性进展。奥巴马曾计划让宇航员登陆小行星，这一愿景最终也不了了之。

2019年7月，特朗普总统与宇航员迈克尔·柯林斯（特朗普右侧）和巴兹·奥尔德林（特朗普左侧）合影。

Trump, however, came to see space as a place to make a mark. He invited Aldrin and Michael Collins, Aldrin’s Apollo 11 crewmate, to the White House for the 50th anniversary of their historic flight, and put Aldrin in the gallery for his State of the Union address in 2019. He flew to Florida to personally witness the SpaceX launch in 2020 as Elon Musk’s company helped restore NASA’s ability to send astronauts to the International Space Station from its own soil.

然而，特朗普却将太空视为一个可以让他留下印记的领域。阿波罗11号历史性登月50周年之际，他邀请奥尔德林以及同乘阿波罗11号的成员迈克尔·柯林斯到访白宫；2019年的国情咨文演讲中，他还特意邀请奥尔德林出席国会旁听席。2020年，当埃隆·马斯克的公司帮助美国宇航局恢复了从本土向国际空间站发射宇航员的能力时，他专程飞往佛罗里达，亲临现场见证了SpaceX公司的发射任务。

Whether the president will remain attentive to Artemis II is an open question. As the launch date got pushed off, Trump did nothing to call attention to the mission. Even though its four astronauts were in the gallery for his State of the Union address in February, Trump did not acknowledge them or mention their journey.

但总统是否会持续关注阿耳忒弥斯二号任务目前还是未知数。随着发射日期一再推迟，特朗普并未采取任何行动来引起人们对该任务的关注。尽管执行此次任务的四名宇航员出席了他2月的国情咨文演讲，坐在国会旁听席上，特朗普却既没有向他们致意，也没有提及这次太空任务。

NASA faces uncertainties about its moon program after Artemis II. Keeping the world captivated could depend heavily on Trump’s ongoing commitment.

阿耳忒弥斯二号任务之后，NASA的月球计划仍面临诸多不确定性。而能否让全世界持续关注这项事业很大程度上取决于特朗普是否会持续支持该计划。

“As something as technically challenging as spaceflight is, you have to have the White House and the president acting as the spokesman for it,” said Harrison H. Schmitt, one of the last two men to step foot on the moon as part of the Apollo 17 mission in 1972 and one of only four moon walkers still alive today. “There’s just no question about that.”

“航天飞行这种技术难度极高的事业，必须要有白宫和总统亲自为其发声，”哈里森·施密特说。“这一点是毋庸置疑的。”1972年，作为阿波罗17号任务的宇航员，施密特成为最后两位踏上月球表面的人类之一，也是如今仍在世的仅有的四位登月宇航员之一。

When a fire broke out in March in a shopping center a few minutes’ walk from the Kremlin, one of Russia’s scrappy Telegram news channels sent a reporter to the scene.

3月，克里姆林宫步行几分钟外的一家购物中心发生火灾时，俄罗斯一家以敢拼著称的Telegram新闻频道派了一名记者赶赴现场。

There was one problem. Mobile data was completely down in the center of Moscow, and Telegram, the most popular app in the country, was being throttled.

但出现了一个问题。莫斯科市中心的移动数据完全中断，而该国最流行的应用程序Telegram也被限流。

“It was like 1997,” said Sergei Titov, the editor of the channel, Ostorozhno Novosti, who recounted how the reporter, unable to send photos or videos, called the outlet’s landline to narrate — “three fire engines, two ambulances, many people running.”

“就像回到了1997年，”这个名叫“Ostorozhno Novosti”的新闻频道主编谢尔盖·季托夫说。他回忆道，由于无法发回照片或视频，派到前方的记者只能打编辑部的座机电话进行口述——“三辆消防车，两辆救护车，很多人在奔跑。”

The dayslong outage in the most important part of Moscow crystallized fears that President Vladimir Putin would go further than Russians imagined to cut them off from the world and interrupt their lives as he brings the nation’s internet fully under Kremlin control.

这起持续数天、发生在莫斯科最重要区域的断网事件加剧了人们的担忧：总统普京可能会采取比俄罗斯人想象的更进一步的措施，将他们与外界隔绝，并在把该国的互联网完全置于克里姆林宫控制之下的过程中，打乱他们的日常生活。

Russians in recent weeks have faced two disruptions at once. Authorities, armed with new technical capabilities and wartime pretexts, have been pulling the plug on the mobile internet in certain places. They have also been blocking ever more foreign apps used by millions of Russians.

最近几周，俄罗斯人面临两重中断。当局凭借新的技术能力和战时借口在特定区域关闭移动互联网。同时，他们也在屏蔽越来越多被数百万俄罗斯人使用的外国应用程序。

1月，遭围困的乌克兰康斯坦丁尼夫卡市，一名乌克兰步兵。俄罗斯以战争为借口在国内打压互联网自由。

The government has cited security reasons for the internet outages, calling them precautions against Ukrainian drone attacks that use Russian mobile networks for targeting. But experts say the government is also conducting the sort of targeted blackouts that it would impose in the event of unrest, like the mass demonstrations that swept Iran this year.

政府称断网是出于安全考量，称这是为防范利用俄罗斯移动网络进行定位的乌克兰无人机袭击所采取的预防措施。但专家指出，政府也在实施定向断网措施，这种手段通常发生在社会动荡时期，比如今年席卷伊朗的大规模示威期间。

Even bolder, in the eyes of many Russians, is Putin’s assault on Telegram. Having blocked Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and YouTube, the Russian leader is now moving to hobble an app that more than 100 million Russians use every month to communicate and read news, including from exiled outlets banned in Russia.

在许多俄罗斯人看来，普京对Telegram的打击更为激进。在封锁了Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp和YouTube之后，这位俄罗斯领导人现在又采取行动，削弱一款每月有超过1亿俄罗斯人用于通信和阅读新闻的应用（包括阅读来自被俄罗斯封禁的流亡媒体的新闻）。

Moscow is pressuring Russians instead to use a new Kremlin-approved “super app” known as MAX. Russian media outlets have reported that Moscow plans to block Telegram fully starting Wednesday, but signs have emerged that they could delay the move amid a public backlash.

与此同时，莫斯科方面正迫使俄罗斯人改用一款经克里姆林宫批准的“超级应用”——MAX。有俄罗斯媒体报道称，当局计划从周三起全面封锁Telegram，但有迹象显示，由于引发公众反弹，当局可能会推迟这一行动。

Of all the examples of growing repression in Russia during four years of war in Ukraine, few have touched more people than the internet restrictions.

在乌克兰战争持续的四年间，俄罗斯日益加剧的种种压制手段中，几乎没有哪一项像互联网限制举措那样影响到如此多的人。

The on-again, off-again blackouts and blockages have caused havoc as the digital services that power everyday life have flickered in and out, forcing people into a frustrating hunt for workarounds.

时断时续的断网和封锁造成了严重混乱，支撑日常生活的数字服务时有时无，迫使人们费尽周折寻找替代方案。

When the mobile internet went out in parts of Moscow, people started paying in cash. With taxi apps rendered useless, some hitched rides in passing cars. Sales of walkie-talkies, analog telephone lines, paper maps and old-school MP3 players spiked online. Even in the halls of the Kremlin, officials returned to using landlines.

当莫斯科部分地区的移动互联网中断时，人们开始改用现金支付。打车软件无法使用后，一些人只能搭乘顺路车。对讲机、模拟电话线路、纸质地图以及老式MP3播放器的网上销量激增。甚至在克里姆林宫内，官员们也重新用起座机电话。

本月，莫斯科市中心的移动互联网中断令许多俄罗斯人感到震惊。

Some of the impacts have been perilous. During outages, glucose-monitoring devices worn by children with diabetes, for instance, haven’t been able to transmit real-time updates that parents need to adjust the insulin levels.

一些影响甚至是危险的。例如在断网期间，糖尿病儿童佩戴的血糖监测设备无法传输实时数据，而父母需要这些数据来调整胰岛素剂量。

Amid all the disruption, signs of public anger have bubbled up, with efforts in some cities to hold protests over the internet outages and app throttling, though they have been blocked by authorities. To keep apps like Telegram working, millions of Russians have turned to virtual private networks, or VPNs, to circumvent the restrictions.

在种种混乱中，公众愤怒的迹象开始显现，一些城市出现了针对断网和应用程序限流的抗议活动，尽管这些抗议被当局阻止。为了正常使用Telegram等应用，数百万俄罗斯人转而使用VPN来绕过限制。

Titov, the editor of Ostorozhno Novosti, which is owned by Russian socialite and former presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak, underscored that Telegram was not simply a “social network” but the foundation of what remained of the unfettered Russian internet.

Ostorozhno Novosti频道的主编季托夫强调，Telegram不仅仅是一个“社交网络”，更是俄罗斯所剩无几的自由互联网的基石。该媒体由俄罗斯名媛、前总统候选人克谢尼娅·索布恰克所有。

“Telegram for Russians, at least of my generation — those who started using it at, say, 20 years old — is their entire internet life,” Titov said. In that sense, he said, “the entire internet system that people are used to is being destroyed right now.”

“对俄罗斯人来说，至少对我这一代人——比如从20岁开始使用Telegram的那批人——它几乎就是他们全部的互联网生活，”季托夫说。从这个意义上讲，他说，“人们所熟悉的整个互联网体系，现在正在被摧毁。”

Disappearing Freedom

正在消失的自由

For decades, Russians enjoyed a largely free and decentralized internet. A vibrant digital culture took root, with Russians expressing themselves openly, organizing politically and regularly using Western tech platforms.

几十年来，俄罗斯一直享有一个相对自由、去中心化的互联网环境。一种充满活力的数字文化在这里生根发芽，人们可以自由地表达观点、组织政治活动，而且可以经常使用西方科技平台。

After mass protests against Putin swept Moscow in 2011 and 2012, the Kremlin began to see the freewheeling Russian internet as a serious threat. Frustrated by the power of U.S. tech giants, Putin set out to build a “sovereign internet”— a hived-off online world he could control.

在2011年和2012年席卷莫斯科的大规模抗议活动之后，克里姆林宫开始将这种不受管控的俄罗斯互联网视为严重威胁。面对美国科技巨头的影响力，普京感到不满，于是着手打造一个“主权互联网”——一个他可以控制的、与外界隔绝的网络空间。

Perhaps no one represented the threat for the Kremlin more than anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, who rose to prominence as a LiveJournal blogger calling out state corruption. With videos garnering millions of views, he showed how viral online content could lead to real-world protests.

对克里姆林宫而言，也许没有人比反腐活动人士阿列克谢·纳瓦利内更具威胁性。他最初因在LiveJournal上揭露国家腐败走红。凭借获得数百万点击量的视频，他展示了爆火的网络内容如何在现实世界引发抗议。

Led by Roskomnadzor, the Russian communications regulator, Russian authorities blocked his website and pressured Western tech giants to remove his protest-voting app and video ads.

在俄罗斯通信监管机构Roskomnadzor牵头下，当局封锁了他的网站，并施压西方科技巨头删除他的抗议投票应用和相关视频广告。

Then, after Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin began curtailing Russian internet freedom with much bolder, more disruptive actions.

在2022年普京发动对乌克兰的全面入侵后，克里姆林宫开始以更为激进、更具破坏性的手段来收紧俄罗斯的互联网自由。

阿列克谢·纳瓦利内广泛的网络影响力曾对俄罗斯政府构成挑战。

Moscow swiftly banned Twitter, Instagram and Facebook outright, and eventually turned its attention to suffocating YouTube, long one of Russia’s most heavily used sites, as well as WhatsApp. VPN use soared.

莫斯科迅速屏蔽了Twitter、Instagram和Facebook，并最终将矛头指向YouTube——这个长期以来在俄罗斯使用最广泛的网站之一——以及WhatsApp，试图封杀它们。VPN的使用量随之激增。

Amid the state onslaught, Telegram remained a relatively open space.

在国家强力打压之下，Telegram一度仍是相对开放的空间。

Armed with its own network of Telegram channels, the Kremlin relied on the app to spread its messages of propaganda about the war, and soldiers used the app to stay in touch with their families and raise money for their units. At the same time, Russians could read unfiltered news and commentary by even the fiercest government critics.

利用自己的Telegram频道网络，克里姆林宫依靠这款应用传播其战争宣传信息，士兵则使用该应用与家人保持联系，并为部队筹集资金。与此同时，俄罗斯民众仍可以读到未经审查的新闻和评论，甚至包括最尖锐的批评政府的声音。

One of them was Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who posted unvarnished and expletive-laden videos on Telegram from the front. He developed a cult following among discontented soldiers that exploded into a failed coup in 2023, underscoring to the Kremlin how Telegram posts could fuel a real threat.

其中一位批评者是俄罗斯雇佣兵头目叶夫根尼·普里戈任。他在Telegram上发布未经修饰，甚至夹杂粗口的前线视频。他在心怀不满的士兵中培养了一批狂热的追随者，这股势力在2023年演变成一场未遂政变，这也让克里姆林宫意识到，Telegram上的帖子可能催生现实中的威胁。

‘Enemy Form of Communication’

“敌对的通信形式”

More than two years later, Roskomnadzor announced that it was throttling Telegram, saying in February that the app had violated Russian law by failing to protect personal data, combat fraud and prevent its use by terrorists and criminals.

两年多之后，俄罗斯通信监管机构Roskomnadzor宣布对Telegram进行限制，并在今年2月表示，该应用程序因未能保护个人数据、打击欺诈以及防止被恐怖分子和犯罪分子利用，因而违反了俄罗斯法律。

Intermittent blockages of the service began. The New York Times tested access to Telegram in mid-March using 72 servers across Russia and found that only 39 were able to load the app’s browser version.

此后，对该服务的间歇性封锁开始出现。《纽约时报》在3月中旬使用分布在俄罗斯各地的72台服务器测试了访问Telegram的情况，发现其中只有39台能够加载该应用的网页版。

Conventional wisdom long held that because Russia’s internet began free, it would be impossible technologically and politically for the Kremlin to put the genie back in the bottle.

长期以来，一种普遍看法认为，由于俄罗斯的互联网起步时是自由的，从技术和政治层面来说，克里姆林宫都不可能再把“精灵”重新塞回瓶子里。

Alena Epifanova, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said that while Russia was not able to replicate China’s “Great Firewall” approach, which closed off the Chinese internet from the start, it was quickly moving toward an Iranian model. That approach involves “white lists” of approved sites, targeted outages and an internal intranet under the government’s thumb, she said.

德国外交关系委员会的俄罗斯问题分析师阿列娜·叶皮凡诺娃表示，尽管俄罗斯无法复制中国那种从一开始就封闭互联网的“防火长城”模式，但它正迅速转向伊朗模式。她说，这种模式包括对网站实行“白名单”、实施定点断网，以及建立一个受政府控制的内部局域网。

Many Russians, including supporters of Putin, view disabling Telegram as a bridge too far.

许多俄罗斯人，包括一些普京的支持者，都认为封禁Telegram做得太过分了。

The decision even led to a fleeting return of politics in Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament.

这一决定甚至让长期形同橡皮图章的俄罗斯议会短暂出现了政治争论。

Sergei M. Mironov, the leader of the party A Just Russia and a vocal supporter of the war, called Telegram the “only reliable means of communication” for the Russian military.

公正俄罗斯党的领导人、乌克兰战争的高调支持者谢尔盖·米罗诺夫称，Telegram是俄罗斯军队“唯一可靠的通信手段”。

别尔哥罗德州州长维亚切斯拉夫·格拉德科夫去年在莫斯科，照片来自俄罗斯官方媒体发布。他称Telegram是关键的生存基础设施。

“Those who are shedding blood have no contact with their relatives and friends,” Mironov said. “What are you doing, you idiots?”

“那些正在流血牺牲的人无法与亲友取得联系，”米罗诺夫说。“你们在干什么，你们这些白痴？”

In a vote in Russia’s lower house of parliament, 77 deputies, including those from Mironov’s party and the Communist bloc, voted to ask Russian authorities to justify their decision. The measure failed, with 102 opposing it, but revealed rare divisions.

在俄罗斯国家杜马的一次投票中，包括米罗诺夫所在政党和共产党阵营在内的77名议员投票要求政府解释这一决定。该动议以102票反对未获通过，但暴露出罕见的意见分歧。

Putin, who has said that Moscow must “strangle” foreign tech firms to defend its sovereignty, has been largely silent on the matter.

普京此前曾表示，为了维护主权，莫斯科必须“扼杀”外国科技公司，但在该问题上他基本保持沉默。

In a March 5 meeting at the Kremlin, though, he pointedly asked a military officer whether using communication systems that “are not under our control” was dangerous for personnel.

不过，在3月5日克里姆林宫的一次会议上，他意味深长地询问一名军官，使用那些“不受我们控制”的通信系统，是否会对人员构成危险。

The officer said it was and called Telegram an “enemy form of communication.” Russian journalists later found that the officer had a premium Telegram account.

这名军官回答称确实如此，并称Telegram是一种“敌对的通信形式”。不过后来俄罗斯记者发现，这名军官本人却拥有Telegram的高级账号。

Stifled Discontent

被压制的不满情绪

Telegram, which combines the functionality of Twitter and WhatsApp, was created by Russian-born tech billionaire Pavel Durov, who now lives in the United Arab Emirates. Durov has denounced Moscow’s move as an affront to free speech and “a sad spectacle of a state afraid of its own people.” Russia has placed him under investigation.

Telegram融合了类似Twitter和WhatsApp的功能，由出生于俄罗斯的科技亿万富翁帕维尔·杜罗夫创建，他现居阿联酋。杜罗夫谴责莫斯科此举是对言论自由的侵犯，是“一个害怕自己人民的国家的可悲景象”。俄罗斯方面已对他展开调查。

Durov has yet to announce any countermoves but could make technical changes to Telegram that would help Russians access the app despite the blockages.

杜罗夫尚未宣布任何应对措施，但他可能通过技术手段调整Telegram，使俄罗斯用户在封锁的情况下仍能访问该应用。

Attempts to organize protests have failed.

组织抗议的尝试均告失败。

Permit requests for demonstrations against internet restrictions have been filed in 28 towns and cities across 17 Russian regions, according to Dmitri Kisiyev, a Russian political activist, but all were rejected. At least 50 people have been detained since December 2025 for staging protests against internet restrictions, said OVD-Info, a Russian human rights group.

据俄罗斯政治活动人士德米特里·基西耶夫称，俄罗斯17个地区的28个城镇已提交了针对互联网限制的抗议活动许可申请，但全部被拒。俄罗斯人权组织OVD-Info表示，自2025年12月以来，至少有50人因参加反对互联网限制的抗议活动而被拘留。

In Krasnodar, a city in Russia’s south, a local pro-war lawmaker, Alexander Safronov, received a permit for a 200-person protest, only to have it revoked, with city officials citing security concerns.

在俄罗斯南部城市克拉斯诺达尔，一名支持战争的地方议员亚历山大·萨夫罗诺夫原本获得了举行一场200人规模抗议的许可，但随后又被撤销，当地官员称是出于安全考虑。

俄罗斯彼尔姆市，一场原计划针对Telegram限制的抗议活动许可被撤销后，警察出现在现场。

“Left-wing people, right-wing people — many disagree with what is happening with the blockages and the throttling,” he said in a telephone interview. “The state isn’t even trying to talk to citizens clearly or seriously and doesn’t explain anything to them.”

“左翼人士、右翼人士——许多人都不同意封禁和限制使用的做法，”他在电话采访中说。“政府甚至没有试图与公民进行清晰、严肃的对话，也没有向他们做任何解释。”

Even as people express their anger and hope their workarounds last, many are resigned to a future under stricter state control.

尽管人们表达了愤怒，并希望翻墙手段能够一直有效，但许多人也逐渐接受一个现实：未来将处于更严格的国家控制之下。

Titov predicted that his news outlet would not have the same success on the state-controlled app MAX, whose parent company, social media giant VK, already censors critical comments and news. But he said he saw no way to roll everything back.

季托夫预测，他的新闻频道在政府管控的应用程序MAX上不会取得同样的成功。MAX的母公司、社交媒体巨头VK已经在对批评性的评论和新闻进行审查。但他说，他看不到任何能够回到过去的办法。

“It’s very easy to see dissatisfaction on the internet across all layers of society,” Titov said. “It just doesn’t go anywhere. Even among people who are for the war, there is a lot of criticism of the state, but everyone has sort of learned that you can’t do anything about it.”

“很容易在互联网上看到社会各阶层的不满，”季托夫说。“但这种不满无处宣泄。即使在支持战争的人当中，也有很多对国家的批评，但每个人都多少已经明白，对此你无能为力。”

Regime change has occurred in Iran. Or it hasn’t. It is a goal of the war. Except it isn’t.

伊朗已经发生了政权更迭。又或者根本没有。这是这场战争的目标。可又并非如此。

Those are some of the dizzying messages that have come from President Trump and his aides in recent days. The phrase “regime change” has flown from lips this week like fighter jets crisscrossing the Persian Gulf.

这些都是特朗普总统及其幕僚近几日放出的表态，令人无所适从。本周，“政权更迭”这个词从他们口中频频冒出，犹如波斯湾上空往来穿梭的战斗机。

But there appears to be disagreement among top administration officials on what the phrase means, or whether the United States and Israel have achieved it in four weeks of war against Iran.

但关于这个词的真正含义以及美以两国在对伊朗开战的四周里是否实现了这一目标，美国政府高层官员之间显然存在分歧。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unequivocal declaration about the Iranian government at a news conference on Tuesday: “This new regime, because regime change has occurred, should be wiser than the last. President Trump will make a deal. He is willing.”

在周二的新闻发布会上，国防部长皮特·海格塞思针对伊朗政府作出了斩钉截铁的表态：“既然政权更迭已经发生，这个新政权理应比上一届更明智。特朗普总统会达成协议的，他愿意这样做。”

A common definition of regime change is a forced transformation of government or leadership that results in structural alterations in policies, politics and governance. In Iran, a theocratic leadership that is authoritarian and anti-American — and that continues to wage war — remains in place.

政权更迭的普遍定义是通过强制手段改组政府或领导层，进而带来政策、政治格局与治理体系的结构性变革。而在伊朗，那个威权、反美、且仍在持续作战的神权领导层至今依然掌权。

On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the president’s national security adviser, expressed some doubt in an interview with ABC News about whether anything had really changed in Iran.

周一，在接受ABC新闻采访时，身兼总统国家安全顾问的国务卿鲁比奥对伊朗是否真的发生了实质性变化表达了些许质疑。

“The people who lead them, this clerical regime, that is the problem,” he said. “And if there are new people now in charge who have a more reasonable vision of the future, that would be good news for us, for them, for the entire world. But we also have to be prepared for the possibility, maybe even the probability, that that is not the case.”

“领导他们的人，这个神职人员政权，才是问题所在，”他说。“如果现在掌权的是对未来抱有更理性构想的新领导层，那对我们、对伊朗、对整个世界而言，都会是好消息。但我们也必须做好准备，应对这种情况不会发生，甚至是大概率不会发生的可能性。”

美以联军对德黑兰的空袭仍在继续。

Later, speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Rubio made it clear that destroying Iran’s weapons was important because the current leadership — the new regime, as Mr. Hegseth puts it — is an adversary.

随后，鲁比奥在接受半岛电视台采访时明确表示，摧毁伊朗的武器装备至关重要，因为该国现任领导层——也就是海格塞思口中的“新政权”——仍是美国的对手。

“I think the best way to stability, given the people who are in charge in Iran, is to destroy the ability of Iran in the future to launch these missiles and these drones against their infrastructure and civilian populations,” Mr. Rubio said.

鲁比奥称：“鉴于伊朗当前执掌权力的人，我认为，实现地区稳定的最佳途径，就是彻底摧毁伊朗未来针对基础设施与平民发射导弹与无人机的能力。”

He added that “our objectives here from the very beginning had nothing to do with the leadership.”

他还补充道：“我们从一开始的行动目标就和该国领导层无关。”

Mr. Trump opened the war on Feb. 28 by working with Israel to carry out a strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, and other top officials. Hours later, he called for Iranians to overthrow their government sometime after the bombing stopped. The uprising, which was promised to Mr. Trump by Israeli leaders, has not materialized, but the president is saying mission accomplished on regime change.

2月28日，特朗普联合以色列发动空袭，炸死了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其他多名高层官员，就此开启这场战争。空袭结束数小时后，他便呼吁伊朗民众在轰炸停止后推翻本国政府。以色列领导人曾向特朗普承诺的伊朗民众起义至今并未发生，但总统却宣称，政权更迭的目标已经达成。

In fact, he said, the United States has been so successful that it has ended not just one, but two Iranian regimes.

事实上，他还声称，美国取得的战果极为辉煌，不仅终结了伊朗的一个政权，甚至是两个。

“We’ve had regime change, if you look, already because the one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Sunday aboard Air Force One. “The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people. So I would consider that regime change.”

“你看看就知道，我们已经实现了政权更迭。因为上一个政权已经被彻底摧毁、毁灭，他们都死了，”周日，特朗普在空军一号上对记者表示。“继任的这个政权也基本都死了。现在是第三个政权，我们打交道的是以前从没有人接触过的一群人，是完全不同的一群人。所以我觉得，这就是政权更迭。”

To emphasize the point, he said, “Regime change is an imperative, but I think we have it automatically.”

为了强调这一点，他还说：“政权更迭是必须实现的，但在我看来，我们已经自动完成完成了这个目标。”

Mr. Trump’s talk of the destruction of two regimes appeared to refer to the initial attacks that killed Mr. Khamenei and other senior officials and also injured his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who was later appointed by a group of clerics to be Iran’s new supreme leader. Iranian and Israeli officials say the son suffered leg injuries, and he has not appeared in public during the war.

特朗普口中两个政权的覆灭似乎指的是最初的空袭行动：此次袭击不仅炸死了哈梅内伊及其他多名高层官员，还炸伤了他的儿子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，穆杰塔巴随后由一众神职人员任命为伊朗新任最高领袖。伊朗与以色列官方均表示，哈梅内伊之子腿部受伤，自战争爆发以来从未公开露面。

The younger Mr. Khamenei is considered a hard-line ally of a powerful arm of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The government in Tehran vows resistance and continues to fight the United States, Israel and Arab partners, and to block energy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the global economy.

外界普遍认为，小哈梅内伊是伊朗军方核心力量伊斯兰革命卫队的强硬派盟友。德黑兰政府已誓言抵抗，仍在持续与美国、以色列及阿拉伯盟友作战，并持续封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能源航运，对全球经济造成冲击。

“There has been personnel change in Iran, not regime change,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a scholar of Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “Different men with the same ideology.”

华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会的伊朗问题专家卡里姆·萨贾德普尔表示：“伊朗发生的只是人事变动，绝非政权更迭。换了人，但意识形态没有变。”

Mr. Trump’s remarks about regime change have muddied the waters. But his military actions and coercive economic warfare against a handful of nations — Iran, Venezuela and Cuba — are aimed so far at decapitating leadership to put in power someone who will accede to U.S. demands, rather than effecting a wholesale transformation of the political system.

特朗普关于政权更迭的表态让事态变得愈发扑朔迷离。但截至目前，他针对伊朗、委内瑞拉、古巴等少数国家采取军事行动与强制性经济战，核心目标始终是对他国领导层实施斩首，扶持愿意屈从美国要求的人上台，而非对该国政治体系进行彻底的全面变革。

The president’s aim is to create client states by coercing regime compliance, part of a greater project of resurrecting empire. And he constantly talks about a template: the U.S. military’s violent incursion into Venezuela in January to seize Nicolás Maduro, the country’s president, and Mr. Trump’s subsequent negotiations over oil and other matters with the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, who like Mr. Maduro is a hard-line leftist.

总统的目标是通过逼迫他国政权顺从打造一批附庸国，这也是他复兴帝国这一宏大计划的一部分。他还频频提及一个模板：今年1月，美军暴力入侵委内瑞拉，抓捕了该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗；随后特朗普便与代总统德尔西·罗德里格斯就石油等事宜展开谈判，而罗德里格斯与马杜罗一样同属强硬左翼阵营。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said at a news conference on Monday that the United States and Israel had to kill the older Mr. Khamenei and some of his aides after it proved too difficult to do diplomacy with them. Those previous leaders “are now no longer on planet Earth,” she said, “because they lied to the United States and they strung us along in negotiations, and that was unacceptable to the president, which is why many of the previous leaders were killed.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在周一的新闻发布会上表示，由于与老哈梅内伊及其部分幕僚开展外交谈判的努力彻底落空，美国与以色列不得不将其除掉。她称，这些前领导人“如今已经不在人间，是因为他们欺骗了美国，在谈判中敷衍了事，这是总统无法接受的，这也是众多前领导层成员被杀死的原因”。

Mr. Trump’s braggadocio over accomplishing what he calls regime change is fairly new. In 2016, when he was running for president, he criticized the wasteful U.S. “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying that “we must abandon the failed policy of nation-building and regime change.” In May, he gave a speech in Saudi Arabia in which he said that “in the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.”

特朗普吹嘘自己完成了所谓政权更迭其实是近期才有的论调。2016年竞选总统时，他曾批评美国在伊拉克和阿富汗发动的劳民伤财的“永久战争”，称“我们必须摒弃国家建设与政权更迭这套失败的政策”。去年5月，他还在沙特阿拉伯发表演讲称，“到头来，这些所谓的国家建设者，毁掉的国家远比建设的多；而这些干涉主义者，干涉的是他们根本一无所知的复杂社会。”

Despite his embrace of war and military violence, Mr. Trump’s instinct to refrain from committing the United States to completely transforming hostile nations appears to persist for now.

尽管如今他已然拥抱战争与军事暴力，但截至目前，特朗普不愿让美国背负起彻底改造敌对国家的重担，这一本能似乎并未改变。

The president’s remarks this week asserting that leadership decapitation is regime change can be interpreted as an attempt to redefine the phrase so that he can say his original war goal has been met.

总统本周宣称“对领导层实施斩首就是实现政权更迭”的言论可被解读为他试图重新定义这个词汇，以此宣告自己已经达成了这场战争的初始目标。

“The administration as a whole seems to be moving away from deep regime change as a goal of the war,” said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities in Washington. “A real regime change war in Iran would require boots on the ground — and a lot of them — and Trump wisely doesn’t want to commit that level of effort when the costs and risks far outweigh the benefits.”

华盛顿智库“国防优先”中东项目主任罗斯玛丽·凯拉尼克表示：“整个美国政府，似乎正在逐步放弃将深度政权更迭作为这场战争的目标。想要在伊朗发动一场真正意义上的政权更迭战争，就必须投入地面部队——而且是大量地面部队。特朗普很明智，不愿在这件成本与风险远大于收益的事上投入如此多的精力。”

For the last few months, a plan by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan to increase military spending by $40 billion over eight years has been held up by his political rivals. This week, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators used a visit to Taiwan to throw their support behind the plan, which is seen as a building block for easing concerns in Washington about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense.

过去几个月来，台湾总统赖清德提出的八年内追加1.25万亿新台币（约合400亿美元）的国防预算计划一直遭到政治对手的阻挠。本周，一个由美国两党参议员组成的代表团利用访台机会表达了对该计划的支持。该预算计划被视为缓解华盛顿方面对台湾自身防务承诺担忧的关键基石。

The two Republican and two Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee also tried to demonstrate U.S. commitment to the island at a time when the Trump administration has made negotiations with Beijing a priority.

特朗普政府将与北京的谈判列为优先事项之际，这四位来自参议院外交委员会的议员（两名共和党人，两名民主党人）也试图展示美国对台承诺。

Even so, the senators heard concerns from Taiwan about delays in deliveries of U.S. weapons already purchased. And China, which claims Taiwan as its territory and has urged President Trump to curb arms sales to Taiwan, protested the visit.

不过，这些参议员也听到了台湾方面对已采购的美国武器交付延误的担忧。同时，中国方面对这次访问提出了抗议。中国宣称对台湾拥有主权，并已敦促特朗普总统限制对台军售。

Why Taiwan’s $40 Billion Defense Plan is Stuck

为什么400亿美元的国防计划陷入停滞

The senators publicly urged Taiwanese lawmakers to approve President Lai’s spending proposal, arguing that the extra money could help deter China from contemplating an attack and also spur the growth of Taiwan’s own defense industry, such as in drones and munitions.

参议员们公开敦促台湾立法机构批准赖清德的支出提案，称这笔追加资金不仅有助于威慑中国，使其不敢轻举妄动，同时也能推动台湾自身国防工业的增长，例如无人机和弹药等领域。

“it’s also about capabilities that are critical rather than a single dollar amount,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat from New Hampshire, told reporters in Taipei. “Those capabilities, as we look at the potential threat and the challenges ahead, require a certain level of capability and technological expertise that are going to cost.”

来自新罕布什尔州的民主党参议员珍妮·夏欣在台北对记者表示：“这不仅是钱的问题，更关乎关键能力的建设。面对潜在威胁和未来挑战，这些能力需要达到一定水平，而这必然需要投入相应的技术和资金。”

President Lai’s proposal, which he put forward after pressure from the Trump administration on Taiwan to spend more on its own defense, has been bogged down in the legislature, where opposition parties have a majority.

赖清德总统的这项提案是在特朗普政府施压要求台湾增加国防支出的背景下提出的。但由于在野党在立法机构中占多数席位，该提案目前在立法院遇阻。

Taiwan’s Nationalist Party, the main opposition, has criticized Mr. Lai’s proposal, saying it lacks transparency. They have also cited concerns about a backlog of undelivered arms orders from the United States.

台湾主要在野党国民党批评赖清德的提案缺乏透明度，并指出美国积压的武器订单尚未交付，令他们担忧。

On Monday, Deputy Defense Minister Hsu Szu-chien of Taiwan aired those concerns to the senators during a visit to a research institute that is developing drones. “There are still items that we have already paid for and are not yet delivered,” Mr. Hsu said in televised comments, explaining that he was relaying a message from a Taiwanese opposition lawmaker.

周一，台湾国防部副部长徐斯俭在陪同参议员参观一家无人机研发机构时，表达了这些关切。“目前仍有部分军购项目已经付款但尚未交货，”徐斯俭在电视播出的发言中说，并表示这是转达一位台湾在野党立委的意见。

The Nationalist Party’s chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, has proposed $12 billion in funding to pay for more weapons from the United States, with more purchases possible later.

国民党主席郑丽文提议拨款3800亿台币（约合120亿美元）用于购买更多美国武器，并表示后续可能还会进行更多采购。

The senators’ comments matter in Taiwan, where voters and many politicians are generally sensitive to views from Washington, and they could embolden some opposition politicians to back bigger increases in military spending.

这些参议员的表态在台湾具有重要影响，因为台湾的选民和许多政界人士通常对华盛顿的态度非常敏感。这些言论也可能促使部分在野党政治人物支持更大幅度的军费增长。

How a Trump-Xi Summit Could Change the Stakes

“习特会”将如何改变博弈筹码

President Trump is scheduled to meet China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in mid-May, prompting speculation about whether Mr. Trump could soften U.S. verbal support for Taiwan. The Trump administration has already held off from deciding on an package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at billions of dollars to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi, according to U.S. officials. In a phone call last month, Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump that arms sales to Taiwan should be carefully handled.

特朗普总统计划在5月中旬与中国领导人习近平会面，这引发了外界对于特朗普是否会软化美国对台口头支持的猜测。据美国官员透露，特朗普政府已暂缓决定一项价值数十亿美元的对台军售方案，以避免激怒习近平。习近平在上个月的通话中曾警告特朗普，对台军售问题应当谨慎处理。

Some experts have said, for example, that Mr. Xi may try to coax Mr. Trump to say that the United States opposes independence for Taiwan. There are no signs that Taiwan wants to claim formal independence, and opposition from Washington to any such move would not be new. But such words would carry more weight if Mr. Trump uttered them in Beijing, and could magnify jitters in Taiwan about Mr. Trump’s commitment to the island.

一些专家表示，举例而言，习近平可能会试图劝诱特朗普表态美国反对台湾独立。实际上目前没有迹象表明台湾有意宣布正式独立，而华盛顿反对此类举动也并非新鲜事。但如果这些话是特朗普在北京亲口说出，其分量将更重，并可能加剧台湾内部对特朗普是否坚定支持这个岛屿的担忧。

Senator John Curtis, a Republican representing Utah, said support for Taiwan remained strong and bipartisan in the U.S. Congress. It need not be bad for Taiwan if U.S.-China relations improve, he added. “If we have a bad relationship with China, it is far more likely that China would be aggressive to Taiwan,” he said.

代表犹他州的共和党参议员匡希恒(John Curtis)表示，美国国会对台湾的支持依然稳固，而且是跨党派的。他补充道，美中关系的改善对台湾而言未必是坏事。“如果我们与中国的关系恶化，中国反而更有可能对台湾采取激进行动，”他说道。

China Warns of ‘Wrong Signals’ Sent by Visit

中国警告：访问释放了“错误信号”

The visit by the senators was met with protest in Beijing, in line with the Chinese government’s long opposition to visits by foreign lawmakers to Taipei, which China views as an endorsement of the island’s push for international recognition.

参议员的此次访问遭到了北京方面的抗议，这与中国政府长期以来反对外国议员访问台北的立场一致。中国认为，这类访问等同于对台湾争取国际承认的支持。

Mao Ning, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, accused the United States of sending “wrong signals” to so-called separatist forces, which is Beijing’s term for Mr. Lai’s party, which is skeptical of Beijing and asserts that Taiwan is in effect independent.

中国外交部发言人毛宁指责美国向所谓“分裂势力”发出“错误信号”。“分裂势力”是北京对赖清德所属政党的称呼，该党对北京持怀疑态度，并主张台湾事实上已经是独立的。

Chinese media cited Chinese scholars as saying the visit was nothing more than a political show by the governing party of Taiwan to pressure the opposition.

中国媒体援引学者的观点称，此次访问无非是台湾执政党为了向在野党施压而搞的一场政治表演。

China has also sought to show that it has influence in Taiwan’s political landscape. The Senate delegation’s visit to Taiwan coincided with an announcement on Monday from Ms. Cheng of the Nationalist Party that she will visit China next week, possibly for a meeting with Mr. Xi.

中国也试图展示其在台湾政治格局中的影响力。参议院代表团访台之际，国民党主席郑丽文周一宣布，她将于下周访问中国，期间或将与习近平会面。

“We think that dialogue is a good thing. As we know, President Trump is going to be visiting China next month,” Ms. Shaheen said when asked about Ms. Cheng’s trip. But, the senator added, China should be open to talking to all of Taiwan’s political parties.

当被问及郑丽文此行时，参议员夏欣表示：“我们认为对话是好事。正如我们所知，特朗普总统下个月也将访问中国。”但她补充道，中国应当对与台湾所有政党展开对话持开放态度。

A month into the war in the Middle East, an unlikely shortage of an irreplaceable gas is looming over the global economy.

中东战事爆发一月有余，一种无可替代的气体正意外出现供应短缺，给全球经济蒙上阴影。

Helium is a gas that is odorless, colorless and lighter than air. It is also indispensable to manufacturing the computer chips that power artificial intelligence, an important driver of U.S. markets and economic growth.

氦气是一种无色无味、比空气轻的气体。对于制造驱动人工智能运行的计算机芯片而言，它是不可或缺的原料，而人工智能是推动美国市场与经济增长的核心引擎。

A byproduct of natural gas processing, helium is produced mainly in the United States and Qatar. When output in Qatar was halted this month, it cut off roughly a third of the global supply. The outlook worsened last week after Iran struck Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas facility, damaging helium production lines that could take years to rebuild.

氦气是天然气加工的副产品，主产国为美国和卡塔尔。本月卡塔尔氦气生产中断，直接切断了全球约三分之一的供应量。上周伊朗袭击了卡塔尔最大的液化天然气设施，导致氦气生产线受损，重建可能需要数年时间，这使得前景进一步恶化。

Without helium, leading chip makers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, could struggle to keep production lines running, with cascading effects for semiconductor-powered devices from Apple’s iPhones to Nvidia’s A.I. servers.

一旦失去氦气，包括台积电、韩国三星电子与SK海力士在内的全球头部芯片制造商将难以维持生产线运转。这一冲击会沿着产业链层层传导，将对从苹果iPhone到英伟达AI服务器的各类半导体设备产生连锁反应。

Helium may be best known for keeping balloons afloat, but its industrial uses are far more consequential. As the coldest liquid on earth, it cools superconducting magnets in M.R.I. machines. A shortage could ripple far beyond chip making, affecting everything from scientific research to space travel.

氦气最为人熟知的用途或许是给气球充气使其升空，但其工业用途远比这更为重要。作为地球上温度最低的液体，液氦可为核磁共振成像仪(MRI)中的超导磁体提供冷却。氦气短缺的涟漪效应将远远超出芯片制造领域，波及从科研到航天航空的方方面面。

Semiconductor companies rely on helium at multiple stages of chip manufacturing. As intricate machines etch tiny circuits onto thin wafers of silicon, helium cools them from below to maintain the right temperature. After the wafers are washed with chemicals, helium is used to flush out toxic residue.

半导体企业在芯片制造的多个核心环节都离不开氦气：当精密设备将微小电路蚀刻到薄薄的硅片上时，氦气会从设备下方持续进行冷却，以维持适当的工作温度；晶圆经化学试剂清洗后，也需要用氦气冲洗清除有毒残留物。

台中港是台湾境内能够接收和储存液化天然气的三个港口之一。

Analysts said it could take weeks or months for the semiconductor industry to feel the shortage, with chip companies relying on stored helium and what was already en route to Asia when the war in the Middle East began.

分析师表示，半导体行业可能要数周乃至数月后才会切实感受到此次短缺的冲击，因为芯片公司目前仍依赖库存氦气以及中东战争爆发时已运往亚洲的氦气。。

But the question is whether existing supplies can bridge the gap while the entire global helium trade is reorganized to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has been effectively closed to tankers since the U.S.-Israeli military campaign began last month.

但核心问题在于，当前的库存能否填补供应缺口，撑到全球氦气贸易完成全线重组、避开霍尔木兹海峡之时。自上月美以军事行动启动以来，这条狭窄的关键水道实质上已对运输船关闭。

About 200 specialized containers used to transport helium were stranded in the strait at the outset of the war, said Phil Kornbluth, a former gas industry executive and helium industry consultant. It could take months to reposition them, refill them and deliver the gas to customers.

前天然气行业高管、氦气行业顾问菲尔·科恩布卢斯称，战事爆发之初，约200个氦气专用运输集装箱滞留在霍尔木兹海峡。重新调配这些集装箱、重新装载并向客户交付气体可能需要数月时间。

With both logistics disrupted and production facilities damaged, analysts say it is only a matter of time until the helium shortage reaches the semiconductor industry.

分析师普遍认为，物流受阻叠加生产设施损毁，氦气短缺传导至半导体行业只是时间问题。

“There is a tsunami coming, but it’s still a thousand miles offshore,” Mr. Kornbluth said. “Right now, it’s still sunny on the beach.”

“一场海啸正在袭来，只是目前还在海岸的千里之外，”科恩布卢斯说。“此刻，海滩上依旧阳光明媚。”

TSMC said it was monitoring the situation closely and did not anticipate any significant impact at this time. Samsung and SK Hynix declined to comment.

台积电表示，正密切关注事态发展，目前预计不会对公司运营产生重大影响。三星与SK海力士则拒绝就此置评。

As chip makers race to meet the insatiable demand for artificial intelligence, their ability to do so will depend in part on whether gas suppliers can secure enough helium.

在芯片制造商竞相满足人工智能领域永无止境的需求之际，其产能能否跟上这一目标部分取决于气体供应商能否确保获得足够的氦气。

On Wednesday, in Taichung, a city on Taiwan’s west coast, France’s Air Liquide opened a factory near one of the country’s few ports equipped to handle and store liquefied natural gas and helium. Until a few weeks ago, about a third of Taiwan’s natural gas and most of its helium came from Qatar.

本周三，法国液化空气集团在台湾西海岸的台中市落成一座新工厂，选址紧邻台湾少数几个具备处理和储存液化天然气及氦气能力的港口之一。直至几周前，台湾约三分之一的天然气和绝大多数氦气进口货源都来自卡塔尔。

上周三，液化空气集团高管阿梅尔·勒维厄（中）及其他高管在台中发表了讲话。

Air Liquide, which supplies industrial gases to most major chip makers, was assessing customers’ stockpiles and working to ensure supply, while diversifying its helium sources, according to Armelle Levieux, a vice president at the company.

液化空气集团副总裁阿梅尔·勒维厄表示，作为全球多数头部芯片制造商的工业气体核心供应商，公司正在全面评估客户的库存情况，全力保障供应稳定，同时加速推进氦气来源的多元化。

But replacing lost supply is not as simple as buying more helium from the United States and stockpiling it at factories.

但填补此次的供应缺口绝非简单地从美国采购更多氦气、再储存在工厂里就能实现。

Like liquefied natural gas, helium needs to be transported in a special container that can keep it in liquid form. For helium, that means storage near absolute zero or about the temperature of outer space. At such temperatures, helium must be transported as a hazardous material, and only certain trucks and ships can carry it.

与液化天然气一样，氦气需要装在能使其保持液态的特殊容器中运输。对于氦气而言，这意味着储存环境必须接近绝对零度，约等于外太空的温度。在这种超低温条件下，氦气必须按危险品规范运输，只有具备资质的专用卡车和船舶能够承运。

The containers are insulated with liquid nitrogen, which absorbs heat during the journey. But only for so long. Once the nitrogen is depleted, the helium warms, expands rapidly into a gas and becomes dangerous to store.

这些容器内充有液氮，液氮在运输过程中会吸收热量，但隔热效果有明确的时限。一旦液氮耗尽，氦气就会升温，迅速膨胀成气体，储存风险会大幅攀升。

Chip makers “can only keep about a month and a half supply sitting around; otherwise, it starts heating up,” said Richard Brook, a former executive at Air Liquide and the chief executive of Garrison Ventures, a helium industry consultancy.

液化空气集团前高管、氦气行业咨询公司加里森风投首席执行官理查德·布鲁克表示，芯片制造商“只能储备约一个半月的氦气库存，否则，氦气就会开始升温”。

自2019年以来，液化空气集团已投资超过10亿欧元拓展其在台湾的业务。

As gas companies scramble to tap alternative sources and secure additional containers in the region, chip makers should have enough helium for several months, said Arisa Liu, a director at Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a think tank.

台湾智库台湾经济研究院的一位总监刘佩真表示，在气体企业争相寻找替代气源、在亚太地区筹措更多专用运输容器的同时，芯片制造商的氦气库存预计还能支撑数月。

Chip makers in South Korea are especially exposed. About two-thirds of the country’s helium imports came from Qatar last year, according to Fitch Ratings. It relies heavily on the Middle East for more than a dozen types of chip-making materials and equipment, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

韩国的芯片制造商面临的风险尤为突出。惠誉评级的数据显示，2025年韩国约三分之二的氦气进口来自卡塔尔。韩国产业通商资源部的数据则显示，该国十几种芯片制造必需的材料和设备，都高度依赖中东地区供应。

South Korea’s semiconductor companies, which produce the memory chips crucial to A.I., are already struggling to make enough to keep up with booming global demand. Prices have already been driven higher.

韩国半导体企业生产的存储芯片是人工智能领域的至关重要的部件，目前这些企业本就难以满足全球激增的需求，价格因此已被推高。

When helium is scarce, it goes to whoever can pay the most. In past shortages, chip makers, with their deep pockets, have outbid the competition, leaving other sectors dependent on helium like pharmaceuticals and medical imaging short of supply.

氦气供应紧缺时，货源会优先流向出价最高的买家。在过往的全球氦气短缺危机中，资金雄厚的芯片制造商总能在竞价中胜出，导致制药、医学影像等其他同样依赖氦气的行业陷入供应不足的困境。

“The semiconductor industry will pay whatever they need to pay to get that helium,” Mr. Brook said. Since the cost of shutting down a chip factory would be enormous, “they’ll outbid anybody,” he said.

“为了拿到氦气，半导体行业愿意付出任何必要的成本，”布鲁克表示。由于芯片工厂停工的损失过于巨大，“他们会压倒任何竞争对手的报价，”他说。

液化空气集团位于台中的产业园区，这里是台湾西海岸为芯片产业供应原材料的密集工厂网络的一部分。

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has fractured the Iranian government, complicating its ability to make decisions and coordinate larger retaliatory attacks, according to officials familiar with U.S. and Western intelligence assessments.

据了解美国及西方情报评估的官员透露，美以对伊朗发动的战争已导致伊朗政府体系出现分裂，其决策能力、协调大规模报复性袭击的能力均受到严重影响。

Several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed since the war began four weeks ago. Those who survive have had difficulty communicating and are unable to meet in person, for fear of having their calls intercepted by the United States or Israel and being targeted in an airstrike.

自四周前战争爆发以来，已有数十名伊朗高层官员及其副手丧生。幸存的官员难以开展正常沟通，也无法当面会晤，因为他们担心通话会被美以两国截听，进而成为空袭的打击目标。

While Iran’s security and military agencies continue to function, the government’s ability to plan new strategies or policies has been weakened.

尽管伊朗的安全与军事机构仍在运转，但该国政府制定新战略、新政策的能力已被大幅削弱。

The Trump administration has said a new government is in charge in Iran and has pressed it to make a quick deal. But the more degraded Iranian government decision making becomes, the more difficult it will be for it to negotiate with American envoys or make significant concessions.

特朗普政府称，伊朗目前已由新政府掌权，并向该新政府施压要求迅速达成协议。但伊朗政府的决策能力越退化，就越难与美国特使展开谈判，也越难做出重大让步。

特朗普总统及其政府表示，伊朗已由新政府掌权，并敦促该新政府尽快达成协议。

With different leaders in place, Iranian negotiators may have little knowledge about what their government is willing to concede, or even whom precisely to ask.

由于掌权的领导层频繁更迭，伊朗谈判代表可能完全不清楚本国政府愿意做出哪些让步，甚至不知道该向谁请示。

What is more, American officials say hard-liners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have become more influential in Iran, exerting more power than the religious leadership nominally in charge.

此外，美国官员表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队内部的强硬派势力在国内的影响力进一步上升，其掌握的实权已超过名义上掌权的宗教领导层。

But whether someone emerges to make a deal, and whether that person can persuade other officials to agree to it, is far from clear. Former American officials say Iran will make a deal when it suffers enough economic pain from the war. While the damage has been severe, Iran may not yet feel as though it is losing, according to current and former officials.

但目前尚不清楚是否会有人出面敲定协议，也无法确定此人能否说服其他官员认可协议内容。美国前政府官员称，只有当伊朗因战争遭受足够的经济痛苦时，才会同意签署协议。多名现任及前任官员均表示，尽管伊朗已遭受重创，但该国目前可能仍不认为自己处于战败状态。

On Monday, President Trump threatened to expand the war if a deal was not quickly reached, suggesting that U.S. forces might try to take Kharg Island, Iran’s main hub for oil exports.

周一，特朗普总统发出威胁，称若不能迅速达成协议，将扩大战争规模，还暗示美军可能会试图夺取伊朗石油出口核心枢纽哈尔克岛。

Iran’s compromised communications have caused confusion and paranoia among the surviving government leaders, who fear that their calls and messages are being intercepted by Israeli intelligence, officials say. As a result, they have been reluctant to make calls, according to officials briefed on Western intelligence assessments.

官员透露，伊朗的通信系统已遭破坏，这在幸存的政府高层中引发了混乱与猜疑，他们担心自己的通话和信息会被以色列情报机构截获。据了解西方情报评估的官员称，正因如此，这些高层官员一直不愿进行通话联络。

Israel began the war with a strike on the leadership compound that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and much of the national security leadership. A number of lower-level officials seen by the United States as more pragmatic were also killed in the strike, U.S. officials said. Mr. Trump himself made reference in interviews that potential candidates to lead Iran had been killed.

以色列以一场针对伊朗最高领袖官邸的空袭拉开了战争序幕，这场袭击导致伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊及大部分国家安全领导层身亡。美国官员称，多名被美方视为态度更务实的中低层官员也在此次空袭中丧生。特朗普本人在采访中也提及，有望执掌伊朗的潜在人选已在袭击中身亡。

The attack severed many connections between security, military and civilian policymakers, according to Western officials and others briefed on government assessments.

据西方官员及了解相关政府评估的人士透露，这场袭击切断了伊朗安全部门、军方与民事政策制定部门之间的大量联络。

It is unclear how much control the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is exerting over the government. He has not been seen in public, and U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies believe he was wounded during the war.

目前尚不清楚伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊对政府的实际掌控力度。他一直未公开露面，美以两国情报机构均认为他在战争中受了伤。

周一以色列和美国对德黑兰发动空袭后的景象。

Some intelligence officials believe that Mr. Khamenei may be more of a figurehead, and that the surviving leadership of the Revolutionary Guards is making the decisions.

部分情报官员认为，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊可能更多只是傀儡，实际决策权掌握在革命卫队幸存的领导层手中。

A senior U.S. military official said Iranian command and control has been badly degraded by American and Israeli strikes. Still, the official and a senior intelligence official said, before the war Iran built a decentralized control system that allows local commanders in different regions of the country to make their own strike decisions, even in the absence of direct day-to-day orders from Tehran.

一名美军高级官员表示，美以两国的空袭已严重摧毁了伊朗的指挥控制系统。但该官员与一名高级情报官员还指出，伊朗在战前就已建立了一套去中心化的指挥体系，即便没有来自德黑兰的日常直接指令，该国不同地区的地方指挥官也可自行做出打击决策。

The United States is targeting those local commanders, the senior military official said. Nevertheless, Iran has proved it can still launch substantial offensive strikes like the missile and drone attack at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last week.

这名高级官员称，美方已将这些地方指挥官列为打击目标。尽管如此，伊朗已证明其仍有能力发动大规模攻势，比如上周针对沙特阿拉伯苏丹王子空军基地的导弹与无人机袭击。

But the retaliatory attacks have not been as large, or as effective, as they might have been because of the problems in the Iranian government. Given the decimation of its leadership, former U.S. officials say, Iran has been unable to launch larger barrages of missiles that could more easily overwhelm defenses. Instead, regional commands have had to muster counterattacks without coordinating with one another.

但受伊朗政府内部问题影响，这些报复性袭击的规模与效果均未达到原本可实现的水平。美国前政府官员称，由于领导层伤亡惨重，伊朗无力发动规模更大、更易突破防御系统的密集导弹打击，只能由各地区指挥部在互不协同的情况下各自组织反击。

Mr. Trump has expressed frustration with what he has portrayed as mixed messaging from the Iranian leadership.

特朗普对伊朗领导层释放的前后矛盾的信号表达了不满。

“The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange,’” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Thursday. “They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’”

特朗普上周四在社交媒体上发文称：“伊朗谈判代表和以前大不一样，而且‘古怪’。他们‘乞求’我们达成协议——既然他们在军事上已被彻底击溃，毫无翻盘可能，这本来就是他们该做的事——然而却在公开场合却声称只是在‘研究我们的提案’。”

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump said the campaign of airstrikes had resulted in new leadership in Iran and again claimed progress in talks.

上周末，特朗普表示，持续的空袭行动已促成伊朗领导层更迭，并再次宣称谈判取得了进展。

“It’s a whole different group of people,” Mr. Trump said on Sunday. “So I would consider that regime change, and frankly, they’ve been very reasonable.”

特朗普周日称：“现在是完全不同的一群人。所以我会认为这算得上政权更迭，坦白说，他们一直很通情达理。”

In a social media post on Monday, Mr. Trump offered optimistic assessments of the current government but also threatened to expand the war by targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. He said that if a deal was not reached shortly, and if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, he would attack Iran’s electrical generation plants, oil wells and desalination plants.

在周一的社交媒体帖子中，特朗普对伊朗现任政府给出了乐观的评价，但也威胁要将战争扩大到能源和民用基础设施领域。他表示，若短期内无法达成协议，且霍尔木兹海峡持续处于关闭状态，美军将袭击伊朗的发电厂、油井与海水淡化厂。

People briefed on intelligence assessments said Mr. Trump’s frustration reflected the inability of the current Iranian government to coordinate a response and make a decision about the American peace proposals.

了解相关情报评估的人士表示，特朗普的不满恰恰反映出伊朗现任政府无力协调应对措施，也无法就美方的和平提案做出最终决策。

Israeli officials have said the communication problems in Iran are not dissimilar to the problems with hostage negotiations during the Gaza war. In Gaza, offers from the United States and Israel went to Hamas leaders in Qatar, and then were conveyed in written notes to leaders in Gaza, a time-consuming process that introduced confusion.

以色列官员表示，伊朗当前面临的通信问题与加沙战争期间人质谈判遭遇的问题极为相似。加沙战事中，美以两国提出的方案先要递交给身处卡塔尔的哈马斯领导层，再由他们以书面形式转交给加沙当地的领导人，这一过程耗时漫长，极易引发信息混乱。

A Russian tanker full of crude oil approached Cuba on Monday, and the Trump administration said it would allow the fuel delivery, after months of a de facto U.S. oil blockade that has helped plunge the energy-starved nation into a humanitarian crisis.

周一，一艘满载原油的俄罗斯油轮驶近古巴，特朗普政府表示将放行这批燃油交付。此前美国实施了长达数月的事实上的石油封锁，已让这个能源匮乏的国家陷入人道主义危机。

The tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil, was skirting the northern Cuban coastline and approaching its destination of Matanzas on Monday morning, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider.

船舶数据提供商MarineTraffic的数据显示，这艘载油量约73万桶的油轮于周一早晨沿着古巴北部海岸线航行，正驶向目的地马坦萨斯港。

The fuel shortage has crippled essential services, including Cuba’s health care system. The U.S. ban on foreign oil imports has been seen as a strategy by the Trump administration to bring Cuba’s government to its knees.

燃油短缺已导致古巴包括医疗系统在内的基础公共服务陷入严重瘫痪。美国对古巴的境外石油进口封禁被视为特朗普政府为迫使古巴政府屈服而采取的策略。

While significant, the oil aboard the Russian tanker would provide Cuba only a few weeks’ worth of fuel, experts said.

专家表示，尽管这批原油意义重大，但这艘俄罗斯油轮所载的石油仅能满足古巴几周的燃料需求。

本月哈瓦那发生的一次大停电。

What is driving Cuba’s energy crisis?

古巴能源危机的根源是什么？

Cuba largely relied on Venezuelan and Mexican oil, but shipments stopped in January after the United States captured Venezuela’s president and took control of its oil exports. The Trump administration also said it would impose tariffs on countries that tried providing fuel to Cuba, keeping Mexico from sending oil.

古巴此前的石油供应主要依赖委内瑞拉和墨西哥，但今年1月美国扣押委内瑞拉总统、掌控该国石油出口后，相关供油便宣告中断。特朗普政府还宣称，将对任何试图向古巴输送燃油的国家加征关税，这一举措使得墨西哥无法向古巴输送石油。

President Trump has said he believes he’ll “have the honor of taking Cuba,” and in negotiations with Cuban officials, his administration has signaled that Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, should resign.

特朗普总统曾表示，他相信自己将“有幸拿下古巴”。在与古巴官员的谈判中，特朗普政府已明确释放信号，要求古巴国家元首米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔辞职。

The Cuban government has condemned the Trump administration for trying to push Cuba toward economic collapse, and Mr. Díaz-Canel, the leader of a Communist regime that has ruled Cuba for more than 65 years, said “surrender is not an option.”

古巴政府谴责特朗普政府蓄意将古巴推向经济崩溃的边缘。执掌古巴超过65年的共产党政权领导人迪亚斯-卡内尔明确表态，“投降绝无可能”。

On Sunday night, after The New York Times reported the U.S. administration’s intention to let the oil shipment reach Cuba, Mr. Trump suggested it was a humanitarian gesture.

周日晚间，在《纽约时报》率先报道美国政府有意放行这批运抵古巴的石油后，特朗普称此举是一项人道主义举措。

“We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they need — they have to survive,” he told reporters. “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that. Whether it’s Russia or not.”

他对记者表示：“我们不介意有人运去一船石油，因为他们需要，他们得生存。如果有国家现在想给古巴送点石油，我都没有意见。不管是不是俄罗斯，”他告诉记者。

Asked on Monday if the administration would allow more tankers to reach Cuba, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said “these decisions are being made on a case-by-case basis right now.”

周一，当被问及政府是否会放行更多驶往古巴的油轮时，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，“目前这些决定都在根据具体情况逐案作出”。

On Monday, Dmitri S. Peskov, the spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, said the fuel shipment had been raised in advance with the United States.

周一，俄罗斯总统普京的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示，这批燃油运输事宜已提前与美方进行了沟通。

Russia, he added, has an obligation to “provide the necessary aid to our Cuban friends.”

他还说，俄罗斯有义务“向我们的古巴朋友提供必要的援助”。

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Mr. Peskov’s statement.

针对佩斯科夫的相关表态，白宫未立即回应记者的置评请求。

港口城市马坦萨斯，人们正在等候公交车。预计那艘俄罗斯油轮将抵达这里。

Why is the U.S. allowing this shipment?

美国为何放行此次运输？

It is unclear why the United States allowed a Russian shipment while countries like Mexico, which have been eager to help Cuba, have been prevented from sending tankers after Mr. Trump threatened tariffs.

目前尚不清楚为何美方会放行俄罗斯的这批运输，而墨西哥等迫切希望向古巴伸出援手的国家却遭特朗普以加征关税相威胁，被阻止派出油轮。

The shipment could signal that the United States did not want to make the Cuban people suffer even more, experts said. But they also said that the pressure campaign against Cuba has likely been sidelined by the war in Iran.

专家表示，此次放行或许表明美方不愿让古巴民众承受更多苦难。但他们同时指出，针对古巴的极限施压行动很可能已因伊朗战事被暂时搁置。

“Cuban society and infrastructure is so hampered right now that there is a real risk of a complete breakdown that would not be in anybody’s best interests,” said Pedro A. Freyre, the chair of international practice at Akerman, a law firm in Miami, and an expert on U.S.-Cuba policy. “That’s a bridge too far.”

迈阿密阿克曼律师事务所国际业务部负责人、美古政策专家佩德罗·弗雷尔表示：“古巴的社会运转与基础设施目前已严重失灵，存在彻底崩溃的切实风险，而这不符合任何人的最佳利益。这已经走得太远了。”

The Iran war, he added, had likely extended the timeline for the Trump administration’s plans on Cuba.

他还说，伊朗战事很可能拉长了特朗普政府对古巴行动的计划时间表。

“There is a palpable delay,” he said. “The process is stalled.”

“延迟是显而易见的，”他说。“整个进程已经陷入停滞。”

For some Cubans, the Russian fuel provided a rare bit of good news.

对部分古巴民众而言，这批来自俄罗斯的燃油带来了难得的一丝好消息。

“Hopefully the worst is over,” said Aldo Alvarez, who runs a delivery business in Cuba.

“希望最艰难的日子已经过去了，”在古巴经营配送生意的阿尔多·阿尔瓦雷斯说。

But other Cubans saw the planned oil arrival as a temporary patch potentially delaying the collapse of a regime they loathed.

另一些古巴民众则认为，计划中的石油抵港只是权宜之计，很可能会延缓他们所憎恶的这个政权的垮台。

“It provides more desperation to the people who just crave for a complete change here,” said Giovanny Fardales, a translator in Havana who has been waiting weeks to purchase gas for his car and diesel for his home generator. “Nobody wants more oil arriving, everybody wants this system to collapse, no more Communism, period.”

哈瓦那的翻译乔瓦尼·法达莱斯已经等了数周，想要为自己的汽车购买汽油、为家用发电机采购柴油。他说：“对于那些迫切希望这里发生彻底变革的人来说，这批石油只会让他们更加绝望。没人希望更多石油运进来，所有人都希望这个体制垮台，终结共产主义，就这样。”

本月哈瓦那发生停电时的情景。

Is the shipment going to make a difference?

这批石油能改变现状吗？

Roughly 40 percent of Cuba’s energy grid is sustained by power plants that largely run on crude oil that Cuba produces domestically. But Cuba relies on foreign fuel to power much of its economy, including factories and farms.

古巴约40%的电网由主要依靠本国自产原油的发电厂支撑。但该国经济的大部分环节，包括工厂与农场的运转，都依赖境外进口燃油。

The halt of oil shipments has caused food shortages, brought water pumps that operate on fuel to a halt, ratcheted up gasoline prices, forced hospitals to cancel surgeries and shut down lifesaving equipment like dialysis machines and incubators.

石油运输的中断已导致古巴出现食品短缺，燃油驱动的水泵全面停摆，汽油价格大幅飙升，医院被迫取消手术，透析机、婴儿保温箱等救命设备也被关闭。

The Russian fuel is “not a solution in the face of the extreme fuel shortage,” said Ricardo Torres, an economist at the American University in Washington who specializes in Cuba.

华盛顿美利坚大学专攻古巴问题的经济学家里卡多·托雷斯表示，面对古巴极端严峻的燃油短缺局面，这批来自俄罗斯的石油“并非解决之道”。

Mr. Trump said the oil shipment would not make much of a difference for Cuba in the long run.

特朗普则表示，从长远来看，这批石油运输不会给古巴带来多大改变。

“Cuba is finished,” he said. “They have a bad regime. They have very bad and corrupt leadership. And whether or not they get a boat of oil, it’s not going to matter.”

“古巴已经完了。”他说，“他们的政权糟糕透顶，领导层非常恶劣，而且腐败。无论能不能拿到一船石油，都不会有影响。”

A new Army weapon emerged from relative obscurity after one struck a sports hall and school in southern Iran early in the U.S.-Israeli war, according to weapons experts and a visual analysis by The New York Times.

据武器专家以及《纽约时报》所做的影像分析，在美以发动对伊朗战争的初期，一种此前鲜为人知的陆军武器在伊朗南部击中了一座体育馆和一所学校，由此进入公众视野。

Local officials cited in Iranian media said the strike and others nearby killed at least 21 people, including young girls playing volleyball.

伊朗媒体援引本国官员的话称，此次袭击及附近的其他袭击共造成至少21人死亡，其中包括一些正在打排球的年轻女孩。

That weapon is the Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM (pronounced like “prism”). The PrSM is barely out of the prototype phase, and the Army has not yet created an entry for it in the military’s supply system or given it an official nomenclature — much less disclosed details like its maximum range, its accuracy or the amount of explosives it carries.

这种武器是“精确打击导弹”（Precision Strike Missile，简称PrSM，发音类似“prism”）。这种导弹才刚刚走出原型阶段，陆军尚未在军事供应系统中为其建立条目，也没有为其指定官方代号——更不用说披露其最大射程、精度或所携带炸药量等细节了

Here is what we know about it.

以下是目前已知情况。

When was the Precision Strike Missile developed?

精确打击导弹是何时研发的？

The PrSM debuted just four months after the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019. It would have been banned under that treaty, which prohibited the United States and Russia from fielding ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles capable of ranges between 311 and 3,420 miles.

PrSM在2019年《中程核力量条约》失效后仅四个月首次亮相。根据该条约，美国和俄罗斯不得部署射程在500公里至5500公里之间的陆基弹道导弹和巡航导弹，而PrSM若在条约仍然有效时将属于被禁止之列。

The missile finished its prototype testing and entered low-rate production less than a year ago.

该导弹不到一年前完成了原型测试，并进入小批量生产阶段。

It will replace the Army’s ATACMS missile, which was developed in the 1980s and could strike targets about 190 miles away. The PrSM is expected to fly more than twice as far.

它将取代美国陆军的ATACMS导弹。后者研制于20世纪80年代，射程约为300公里。PrSM的预计射程将是ATACMS的两倍以上。

Who makes it?

谁是生产商？

Lockheed Martin makes the PrSM at a facility in Camden, Ark. According to a news release, the company has 115,000 square feet of factory space and 400 employees devoted to its production.

洛克希德·马丁公司在阿肯色州卡姆登的工厂制造PrSM。根据新闻通稿，该公司为其生产配备了1.6万平方米的厂房空间，以及400人的人员配置。

How many of them have been made?

目前已经生产了多少枚？

The exact number is not publicly known.

具体数字尚未公开。

On March 10, a spokeswoman for Lockheed referred questions about the number of PrSMs it has delivered to the Army. The Army declined to provide any data on its inventory or production rate.

3月10日，洛克希德·马丁公司的发言人将有关PrSM交付数量的问题转给了陆军方面。陆军则拒绝提供库存或生产速度数据。

How much has the Pentagon spent on them so far?

五角大楼迄今为止在该项目上花费了多少资金？

In September 2022, the Pentagon announced it was purchasing 54 of the new missiles for $77.4 million, or about $1.4 million each. In the 2023 fiscal year budget, the Army requested an additional $472 million to purchase 120 more of them.

2022年9月，五角大楼宣布以7740万美元的价格采购54枚新型导弹，折合每枚约140万美元。在2023财年预算中，陆军申请追加4.72亿美元再采购120枚。

Lockheed announced it had delivered the first operational Precision Strike Missiles to the Army in December 2023. Months later, the company received an additional $219 million from the Defense Department for the weapon.

洛克希德·马丁公司宣布，已于2023年12月向陆军交付了首批具备作战能力的精确打击导弹。数月后，该公司又从国防部获得了2.19亿美元的追加资金用于该武器。

And in March 2025, it was awarded $5 billion more.

2025年3月，它又获得了50亿美元的合同。

Where have they been tested?

这些导弹的测试地点在哪里？

A prototype of the Precision Strike Missile was first launched at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico in December 2019.

精确打击导弹的原型于2019年12月首次在新墨西哥州的白沙导弹靶场发射。


Since then, 12 additional test launches have been conducted in New Mexico and California. The most recent test was announced on March 12.

此后，在新墨西哥州和加利福尼亚州又进行了12次试射。最近一次测试的消息是在3月12日宣布的。

How are they launched?

这些导弹是如何发射的？


美军士兵正在将载有一枚ATACMS导弹的发射箱装上“海马斯”。PrSM的发射箱几乎相同，每个发射箱可以装载两枚导弹。

The missiles are packed in containers commonly called “pods” that each contain two PrSMs.

这些导弹装在通常被称为“发射箱”(pods)的容器中，每个发射箱可装载两枚PrSM导弹。

The Cold War-era M270 vehicle, which is based on the Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle and runs on tracks, can carry two pods at a time — for a total of four Precision Strike Missiles.

冷战时期的M270发射车在布雷德利步兵战车的基础上改进而来，采用履带行进，一次可携带两个发射箱，也就是共四枚“精确打击导弹”。

The newer M142 HIMARS, a lighter-weight six-wheeled truck, can carry just one pod at a time.

更新的M142海马斯则是一种更轻的六轮卡车发射平台，每次只能携带一个发射箱。

How have they been used in the war with Iran?

它们在伊朗战争中是如何使用的？

On Feb. 28, U.S. Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East, showcased some of the weapons used during the first 24 hours of the war with Iran — one of which was a PrSM being launched from a HIMARS vehicle in an apparently desert environment.

2月28日，负责指挥中东军事行动的美国中央司令部展示了在与伊朗开战头24小时内使用的部分武器，其中包括一枚在类似沙漠环境中由“海马斯”发射的PrSM导弹。


Central Command said the PrSMs were part of a barrage of munitions that were fired from outside the range of Iran’s defensive weapons.

中央司令部表示，这些PrSM导弹是从伊朗防御武器的射程之外发射的一批弹药之一。

Immediately after firing, the vehicles typically drive to another location to avoid potential enemy counterattacks and then reload.

发射后，这些战车通常会迅速转移至另一地点，以躲避敌方可能的反击，随后进行重新装填。

It is unclear where U.S. forces have launched PrSM missiles from during the war, although U.S.-made HIMARS vehicles have launched short-range ballistic missiles from Bahrain into Iran. And a HIMARS unit from the Wisconsin National Guard is currently deployed to Kuwait.

目前尚不清楚美军在此次战争中是从何处发射PrSM导弹，不过，美制“海马斯”此前曾从巴林向伊朗发射短程弹道导弹。此外，来自威斯康星州国民警卫队的一支“海马斯”部队目前部署在科威特。

一枚“海马斯”系统发射的PrSM导弹射向伊朗。

How important is this missile to the Pentagon?

这种导弹对五角大楼有多重要？


Based on the dollar amounts of contracts signed between the Defense Department and Lockheed, it appears to be very important to the Pentagon’s future war plans.

从国防部与洛克希德·马丁签署的合同金额来看，它显然在五角大楼未来的作战规划中占据重要地位。

On Wednesday, the Pentagon announced it had entered into an agreement with Lockheed to accelerate production of PrSMs “on a wartime footing.” The same day, the company said that agreement and the $5 billion contract that preceded it would allow Lockheed to “quadruple PrSM production capacity.”

周三，五角大楼宣布已与洛克希德·马丁公司达成协议，以“战时状态”加速PrSM的生产。同日，该公司表示，这项协议以及此前签订的50亿美元合同，将使洛克希德公司能够“将PrSM的产能增至原来的四倍”

Lockheed plans to develop four different PrSM “increments,” or variants, which the company has said will increase the missile’s maximum range and eventually give it the ability to hit moving objects, including ships at sea.

洛克希德·马丁公司计划开发四种不同的PrSM“增量型”，称这些改进将提升导弹的最大射程，并最终使其具备打击移动目标的能力，包括海上舰船。

A Chinese artist known for his provocative and irreverent sculptures of Mao Zedong is facing trial on suspicion of slandering the country’s heroes in a case underlining how little criticism is allowed under China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

一位中国艺术家因创作带有挑衅性和戏谑意味的毛泽东雕塑而面临审判，他被指控侵害英雄烈士名誉。这一案件凸显出，中国领导人习近平治下的批评空间何其有限。

The trial of Gao Zhen, 69, was set to begin Monday at the Sanhe City People’s Court in Hebei Province, according to his wife. Mr. Gao, who has been in detention for more than a year and a half, faces up to three years in prison if convicted. The trial will not be open to the public, a measure that under Chinese law is largely reserved for cases that touch on national security.

据其妻透露，现年69岁的高兟于周一在河北省三河市人民法院受审。高兟已被羁押超过一年半，如被定罪，最高可判处三年有期徒刑。此案将不公开审理——根据中国法律，这种措施主要适用于涉及国家安全的案件。

“Secret trials are usually a bad sign,” his brother, Gao Qiang, said. “The authorities may have already decided for the court what the outcome should be, and the trial is simply a politicized legal process, devoid of any fairness.”

“不公开审理通常不是好兆头，”他的弟弟高强说，“当局很可能已经为法院决定了结果，审判不过是场政治化的法律程序，毫无公正可言。”

The Gao brothers were part of a generation of avant-garde Chinese artists who rose to prominence in the early 2000s, a time of relative openness in China. The duo took on taboo topics like the 1966-76 decade of political turmoil known as the Cultural Revolution, as well as the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre. The space for free expression shrunk after Mr. Xi took power in 2012, and in 2022 Mr. Gao emigrated to the United States.

高氏兄弟属于21世纪初崛起的一代中国先锋艺术家群体，彼时中国社会相对开放。两人曾触及诸多禁忌题材，如1966年至1976年的“文化大革命”，以及1989年的天安门屠杀。自习近平2012年上台后，言论空间不断收紧，高兟于2022年移居美国。

When Gao Zhen and his family were visiting China in August, the police detained him at his studio on the outskirts of Beijing, seizing almost all the artwork stored there. During his detention, his wife and 7-year-old son, who is a U.S. citizen, have been barred from leaving China and from seeing or talking with Mr. Gao, though initially they were able to exchange letters. Mr. Gao has refused to confess or plead guilty, according to his wife, Zhao Yaliang.

去年8月，高兟携家人回国探亲期间，警方在北京郊外的工作室将其带走，并查扣了存放在那里的几乎所有艺术作品。高兟遭羁押期间，他的妻子和7岁的儿子（他是美国公民）被禁止离境，而且也无法探视或通话，尽管他们最初还能通过书信联系。据他的妻子赵雅良透露，高兟拒不供述，也不认罪。

赵雅良在北京家中展示丈夫高兟为她创作的作品，摄于去年10月。

She said that she hoped the authorities might release him based on time served. “But because this is China after all, we hope for the best but must prepare for the worst,” she said.

她表示，希望当局能看在他已经被关了这么久的份上，把他放了。“毕竟这是在中国，就是我们期待最好的结果，但是也要做最坏的打算，”她说。

As part of a campaign to enforce the ruling Communist Party’s version of history, China has made it illegal to tarnish the reputation of historical figures or to question official narratives. Journalists, stand-up comedians and regular citizens making comments online have been punished under the slander law, which was adopted in 2018.

作为维护中共官方历史叙事的行动之一，中国已将侵害历史人物声誉或质疑官方历史叙事定为违法行为。根据2018年通过的英烈保护法，已有记者、脱口秀演员以及在网上发表评论的普通民众因此受到惩处。

When it was amended in 2021 to allow prosecutors to seek criminal penalties of up to three years in prison, the government went so far as to publish a list of 10 “rumors” that are forbidden to discuss. They include whether Mao’s “Long March” was actually shorter than claimed, or whether his son was killed during the Korean War because he lit a stove to make fried rice, giving away his position, rather than because of intercepted radio transmissions.

该法律在2021年的一个修订版本允许检察机关寻求刑事处罚，最高可判处三年有期徒刑，政府甚至公布了一份包含10条“谣言”的清单，禁止公众讨论。其中包括：毛泽东的“长征”实际里程是否比宣称的要短，以及他的儿子是否是在朝鲜战争中因点火炒饭暴露位置而被炸死，而非因无线电通信被截获所致。

Now the law is being applied to work that Mr. Gao made more than 15 years ago, before it came into effect.

现在，这项法律被适用于高兟在至少15年前的创作，也就是该法律生效之前的作品。

According to Ms. Zhao, the prosecutors have named three sculptures made by Mr. Gao and his brother. They include a depiction of Mao with breasts and a Pinocchio nose. Another shows a group of Chairman Maos with guns, preparing to execute Jesus Christ. The third portrays the former leader, who was responsible for years of famine and upheaval, kneeling in repentance.

据赵雅良称，检方点名了高兟与其弟共同创作的三件雕塑作品。其中一件描绘了长着乳房和匹诺曹鼻子的毛泽东形象；另一件描绘了一群手持枪支的毛主席准备处决耶稣；第三件则刻画这位曾导致多年饥荒与动荡的前领导人跪地忏悔的场景。

People familiar with the case said Mr. Gao has been accused of disseminating images of the Mao sculptures online as recently as 2024, including on the cover of a biography of the former leader by a Chinese journalist who emigrated to the United States in the 1980s.

知情人士称，高兟被指控直至2024年仍在网上传播这些毛泽东雕塑的图像，包括用于一位上世纪80年代移居美国的中国记者所撰写的毛泽东传记封面。

高氏兄弟的《处决基督》，作品中耶稣面对一支以毛泽东形象塑造的行刑队，2009年摄于中国北京。

Ms. Zhao said that her husband has been punished in detention, including being deprived of food and barred from reading books or getting letters from his family. He suffers from lumbar spine disease, chronic hives and other medical conditions. Still, Mr. Gao has continued to make art from prison, tearing pieces of plain paper to make portraits of his family.

赵雅良表示，丈夫在羁押期间受到惩罚，包括被剥夺饮食、禁止阅读书籍及接收家属信件。高兟患有腰椎疾病、慢性荨麻疹等病症。尽管如此，他在狱中仍继续创作艺术，用信纸撕制家人肖像。

Shane Yi, a researcher at the nonprofit Chinese Human Rights Defenders, said the use of a “contrived, retroactively applied law” in a closed-door trial was evidence of “serious due process violations.”

非营利组织“中国人权捍卫者网络”的研究员肖恩·易（音）表示，在不公开审判中动用“牵强附会、具追溯效力的法律”，足以证明“存在严重违反正当程序的行为”。

Other rights activists have said that the Chinese authorities may want to make an example of Mr. Gao to silence others who have moved overseas.

还有人权活动人士称，中国当局可能希望借高兟案以儆效尤，震慑那些已经移居海外的人士，使其噤声。

Gao Qiang said he hoped the authorities would release his brother so that the family could return to their home in New York and “let art go back to being art.”

高强表示，他希望当局能释放他的哥哥，让一家人回到纽约的家中，“让艺术回到艺术”。

Attending an award ceremony in New York in 2024, Gao Zhen reflected on how little things had changed since he and his brother created those sculptures.

2024年，高兟在纽约出席一个颁奖典礼时谈到，自他与弟弟创作那些雕塑以来，中国的状况几乎没有什么变化。

“We all hoped for greater openness, but in reality, while China has achieved openness in many aspects — even surpassing the West in some areas — it hasn’t truly opened up its political system. Since the Cultural Revolution, it has regressed every decade.”

“我们都希望越来越开放，但事实上，在中国很多方面的开放都是有目共睹的，甚至某些方面的开放可能超过了西方，但唯有在政治体制这方面，我认为不仅没有开放，从文革之后又，每十年大倒退一步。”

As he prepares for a summit with President Trump, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has invited the chairwoman of Taiwan’s main opposition party for a rare visit aimed at countering Washington’s influence, and arms sales, through a show of good will toward the island.

中国领导人习近平在准备与特朗普总统举行峰会之际，邀请台湾主要在野党主席进行一次罕见访问，此举旨在通过对台展示善意，来抵消华盛顿的影响力及对台军售。

The invitation to the leader of the Nationalist Party, Cheng Li-wun, could help Mr. Xi bolster his argument to Mr. Trump that the United States should curtail weapons sales to Taiwan, the democratically governed island that China claims as its territory. Mr. Xi could also highlight Ms. Cheng’s visit next week to show that Beijing is willing to talk to some high-level Taiwanese politicians who accept its terms.

向国民党领导人郑丽文发出邀请或许有助于习近平在与特朗普的会谈中强化其主张，即美国应当减少对台武器销售。中国声称对台湾这个由民选政府治理的岛屿拥有主权。习近平还可以利用郑丽文下周的访问来表明，北京愿意与一些接受其条件的台湾高层政治人物进行对话。

“For China, her visit will help to send a clear message that there is still a sizable enough number of China doves inside Taiwan,” said Wen-ti Sung, an expert on Taiwan at the Global China Hub of The Atlantic Council.

大西洋理事会全球中国中心的台湾问题专家宋文笛表示：“对中国来说，她的访问将有助于传递一个明确信号，即台湾内部仍然存在相当数量的‘亲中鸽派’。”

Ahead of Mr. Xi’s summit with Mr. Trump, expected in mid-May, “it helps China to have that on camera for public diplomacy purposes — that there’s a Taiwanese leader of significant weight that seems to be able to get along with Beijing,” Mr. Sung said.

宋文笛称，在预计于5月中旬举行的习特会之前，“这有助于中国出于公共外交目的留下一位分量不轻的台湾领导人似乎能够与北京和睦相处的画面。”

Since winning an election to lead the Nationalist Party late last year, Ms. Cheng has argued that to ensure peace, Taiwan must build closer ties with China. She has said that she wants to visit China and meet Mr. Xi.

自去年底赢得国民党主席选举以来，郑丽文一直主张，为了确保和平，台湾必须与中国建立更紧密的联系。她曾表示希望访问中国并与习近平会面。

On Monday, Song Tao, the Chinese official in charge of Taiwan policy, said Mr. Xi had invited Ms. Cheng to promote “peaceful development” across the Taiwan Strait, the official Xinhua news agency reported. She would visit Jiangsu Province, Shanghai and Beijing, said the announcement, which did not specify if Mr. Xi would meet with her.

据官方新华社周一报道，负责台湾事务的中国官员宋涛表示，习近平已邀请郑丽文来访，以推动两岸关系“和平发展”。公告称，她将前往江苏、上海和北京参观访问，但未具体说明习近平是否会与她会面。

The Chinese Communist Party has strengthened ties with Ms. Cheng’s party while it seeks to isolate Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party, which is skeptical of Beijing and asserts that Taiwan is in effect independent.

中共在试图孤立台湾执政的民进党的同时，加强了与郑丽文所在政党的联系。民进党对北京持怀疑态度，并主张台湾事实上已经独立。

At a news conference in Taipei on Monday, Ms. Cheng said she had accepted the invitation. China often holds off from confirming official meetings until closer to the date.

周一在台北举行的新闻发布会上，郑丽文表示她已接受邀请。中国通常会等到临近日期时才确认正式会晤安排。

美国总统特朗普于去年10月在韩国釜山会晤中国国家主席习近平。

“We want to prove to the people of Taiwan and the entire world that conflict between the two sides of the strait is not inevitable,” she said. “Through our own wisdom and efforts, we can together forge a broad path of peace.”

她说：“我们要向台湾人民、也向全世界证明一件事情，两岸不是终局一战、两岸不需要兵凶战危，我们可以凭着自己的智慧跟努力共同走出一条和平的康庄大道。”

Asked about Ms. Cheng’s planned trip to China, Taiwan’s official Mainland Affairs Council warned: “If peace is built solely on the good will of Chinese Communist leaders, that will be the greatest danger for Taiwan.”

当被问及郑丽文的访中计划时，台湾官方机构陆委会警告称：“和平如果只是建立在中共领导人的善意上，将是台湾最大的风险。”

Ms. Cheng’s courtship of Beijing is also dividing her own party. Her critics argue that by leaning so close to China, she risks undermining the island’s relationship with the United States, on which it relies to counter Chinese military threats.

郑丽文向北京示好的做法也在党内引发分歧。批评者认为，她太靠近中国，可能会削弱台美关系，而台湾正是依赖这种关系来应对中国的军事威胁。

China does not rule out using force to absorb Taiwan, and has ramped up military pressure around the island in recent years and sought to erode American support for Taiwan. In a phone call with Mr. Trump in February, Mr. Xi warned him about continued sales of U.S. weapons to Taiwan, an indication that the issue will be on the agenda during the summit.

中国并未排除使用武力吞并台湾的可能性，且近年来不断加大对台军事压力，并试图削弱美国对台湾的支持。今年2月，习近平在与特朗普总统的通话中曾警告他不要继续向台军售，这表明该问题将成为即将举行的峰会议程之一。

China’s announcement coincided with a visit by a group of Republican and Democratic senators to Taiwan aimed at demonstrating U.S. commitment to the island. At least two of the senators openly urged Taiwanese lawmakers to pass President Lai Ching-te’s proposal for $40 billion of extra defense funds over eight years.

中国发布这一消息之际，一个由共和党和民主党参议员组成的代表团正在访台，旨在展示美国对该岛的承诺。至少有两名参议员公开敦促台湾立法机构通过赖清德总统提出的在八年时间里追加1.25万亿新台币（约合400亿美元）国防预算的提案。

“I’d like to personally endorse the special defense budget and tell you back in Washington, D.C., that my colleagues are watching, that this is important,” Senator John Curtis, a Republican from Utah, told reporters in Taipei.

来自犹他州的共和党参议员约翰·柯蒂斯在台北对记者表示：“我个人非常支持这项特别国防预算。我想告诉各位，在华盛顿，我的同事们都在关注此事，这件事非常重要。”

The Nationalist Party and a smaller opposition party hold a majority in Taiwan’s legislature, and they have held up President Lai’s proposal. Ms. Cheng and other Nationalist politicians have raised concerns about a backlog in deliveries of U.S. weapons for Taiwan and about potential corruption.

国民党与一个较小的在野党在台湾的立法机构拥有多数席位，他们一直阻挠赖清德的这项提案。郑丽文及其他国民党人士对美国对台武器交付积压问题以及可能存在的腐败表示担忧。

Some members of her own party say Ms. Cheng underestimates Mr. Xi’s determination to bring Taiwan to heel.

她所在党内的一些成员认为，郑丽文低估了习近平将台湾纳入掌控的决心。

For the Nationalist Party, the visit by Ms. Cheng would be “a high-risk gamble,” wrote Jason Hsu, a former lawmaker for the party who has been critical of Ms. Cheng. “It may strengthen its ‘peace’ narrative domestically, but it also risks reinforcing a damaging image: engaging Beijing while undermining defense readiness.”

曾任国民党立法委员、对郑丽文持批评态度的许毓仁写道，对国民党而言，郑丽文此行将是“一场高风险赌博”。“这或许会在国内强化其‘和平’叙事，但也可能加深一种负面形象，即在与北京交往的同时，削弱了国防整备。”

2023年，台湾军队在八里进行演练，模拟如何击退入侵部队。

After pressure from Washington, Ms. Cheng announced that the Nationalists would support an initial sum of about $12 billion for an arms package already approved by the Trump administration, and would support subsequent purchases of U.S. weapons. Critics say that her approach is still too incremental.

在华盛顿施压后，郑丽文宣布国民党将支持特朗普政府此前已批准的约120亿美元军售方案的首批资金，并将支持后续的美国武器采购。但批评者称，她的做法仍然过于渐进。

“The fact is that the threat from the People’s Republic of China continues to grow at one of the fastest paces in the whole world,” said Tony Hu, a former Pentagon official. “Taiwan also needs to stay on the right side in the mind of Trump, and the Nationalist Party doesn’t seem to appreciate the importance of that right now.”

曾任五角大楼官员的胡振东表示：“事实是，来自中华人民共和国的威胁正以全球最快的速度之一持续增长。台湾也需要在特朗普心中保持正确立场，而国民党似乎并未充分认识到这一点的重要性。”

Trump administration officials have ordered F.B.I. agents to gather documents about a decade-old investigation into a Democratic congressman and his ties to a suspected Chinese spy, according to people familiar with the matter.

据知情人士透露，特朗普政府官员已下令联邦调查局特工调取一份十余年前的调查案卷，该案卷涉及一名民主党众议员及其与一名涉嫌为中国间谍的女子的关联。

The effort has alarmed law enforcement officials who said they feared the material could be released publicly to smear the lawmaker, Representative Eric Swalwell, a prominent critic of President Trump who is now running for governor of California.

此举引发了执法部门官员的警惕。他们表示，担心这些材料可能被公之于众，用以抹黑这位议员——埃里克·斯沃韦尔。他是特朗普总统的知名批评者，目前正在竞选加利福尼亚州州长。

The investigation dates from more than a decade ago, when F.B.I. counterintelligence agents looked into a Chinese woman, Christine Fang, or Fang Fang, who assisted Mr. Swalwell with fund-raising. The F.B.I. concluded the investigation, and the Justice Department did not bring any criminal charges.

这项调查始于十多年前，当时联邦调查局反间谍特工对一名华裔女性克里斯汀·方（中文名方芳）展开调查，此人曾为斯沃韦尔的竞选募资提供协助。联邦调查局已完成该项调查，司法部也未对任何人提起刑事诉讼。

In recent days, scores of F.B.I. agents and other personnel in California were instructed to gather the documents on Mr. Swalwell and Ms. Fang, with the goal of working through the weekend to finish a review by early next week, the people said. Supervisors advised the agents to lightly redact the records to obscure some sensitive information and told them the files would be shared with senior administration officials in Washington.

知情人士称，加州数十名联邦调查局特工及其他工作人员近日，接到指令，要求调取关于斯沃韦尔与方芳的相关案卷，目标是周末完成梳理工作，下周初完成全部复核。主管人员告知特工，只需对案卷进行轻度涂黑，隐去部分敏感信息，并称这些文件将提交给华盛顿的政府高级官员。

The order from F.B.I. leadership has alarmed some career investigators, partly because the files are extensive and contain a significant amount of classified material and private information, the people said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss orders intended to remain secret.

知情人士表示，联邦调查局高层下达的这一指令已让部分职业调查人员感到不安，部分原因是这批案卷内容庞杂，包含大量涉密材料与私人信息。因所谈论的指令本属机密，这些知情人士要求匿名。

A Justice Department spokesman and the White House referred questions to the F.B.I. A bureau spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

司法部发言人与白宫均将相关问题转给了联邦调查局，该局发言人暂未回应记者的置评请求。

The F.B.I. and Justice Department do not normally release derogatory information collected during an investigation about people if the subjects were not charged with any crime. There are occasional exceptions to that practice, including when Congress passed a law last year forcing the release of millions of pages from F.B.I. files about the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

按照联邦调查局与司法部的常规操作，若调查对象未被提起任何刑事指控，调联邦调查局和司法部不会公布调查过程中收集到的对其不利的信息。这一惯例仅有极少数例外，比如去年国会通过一项法案，强制公开了联邦调查局案卷中数百万页关于已定罪性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的文件。

Some law enforcement personnel have expressed concern at what would remain unredacted and whether senior officials would misuse the material to score political points, perhaps by publicly releasing it, the people said. They added that the agency was expending significant resources on what appears to be a political errand.

知情人士称，一些执法人员对哪些内容将不作涂黑、予以保留表示担忧，并担心高层官员是否会滥用这些材料捞取政治资本，甚至可能将其公之于众。他们还补充称，该局正为这项看似政治差事的工作投入大量资源。

Ms. Fang left the United States for China in 2015, possibly because she had learned about the counterintelligence investigation into whether she was a spy. Mr. Swalwell has denied wrongdoing, and law enforcement officials have not presented any evidence that he knew of anything amiss about Ms. Fang.

方芳于2015年离开美国返回中国，原因可能是她获悉了这项针对她是否从事间谍活动的反间谍调查。斯沃韦尔始终否认存在任何不当行为，执法部门也从未拿出任何证据，证明他知晓方芳存在任何可疑行径。

In 2023, the House Ethics Committee ended a two-year investigation into the relationship between Mr. Swalwell and Ms. Fang without taking any further action.

2023年，众议院道德委员会结束了对斯沃韦尔与方芳关系的为期两年的调查，未采取任何进一步措施。

But Mr. Trump and his supporters have long pointed to the case to accuse the lawmaker of being a pawn of Chinese intelligence operatives.

但特朗普及其支持者长期以来一直拿这起案件说事，指责这位议员是中国情报机构的棋子。

“We now know the outrageous ends the White House will go to target political opponents,” Mr. Swalwell said in a statement on Saturday. “The reason Trump is so desperately trying to stop me is not because I’m running for governor of California, but because now I’m the favorite.”

斯沃韦尔在周六发布的声明中表示：“我们如今看清了，白宫为针对政治对手会做出何等离谱的事。特朗普如此不择手段想要阻止我，不是因为我在竞选加州州长，而是因为我现在是热门人选。”

“But Donald Trump and Kash Patel do not get to pick the next governor,” he added.

他还说：“但唐纳德·特朗普和卡什·帕特尔无权决定下一任州长的人选。”

斯沃韦尔（中）与其他加州州长候选人合影。

The Washington Post earlier reported on the F.B.I.’s orders to revisit the old case.

《华盛顿邮报》早前率先报道了联邦调查局重新梳理这起旧案调查的消息。

As a member of the House Judiciary Committee, which exercises oversight of the Justice Department and F.B.I., Mr. Swalwell has long clashed with the Trump administration.

作为众议院司法委员会成员（该委员会负责对司法部与联邦调查局行使监督权），斯沃韦尔长期以来与特朗普政府多有冲突。

In a hearing in September, Mr. Swalwell pressed Kash Patel, the bureau’s director, on why the F.B.I. had not released more documents on its investigation years ago into Mr. Epstein, a well-connected businessman who was indicted in 2019 on charges of trafficking underage girls for sex.

在今年9月的一场听证会上，斯沃韦尔就为何多年前未公开更多关于爱泼斯坦调查的文件向联邦调查局局长卡什·帕特尔提出质询。爱泼斯坦是一名人脉广泛的商人，2019年因涉嫌贩卖未成年少女从事性交易而被起诉。 

Mr. Patel yelled at Mr. Swalwell, denouncing his career as “a disgrace to the American people.”

帕特尔当场对斯沃韦尔大声斥责，称其职业生涯“是美国人民的耻辱”。

Mr. Swalwell has also earned Mr. Trump’s ire because of his vocal criticism of the president and his administration’s policies.

斯沃韦尔还因公开批评总统及其政府的政策而招致特朗普的愤怒。

He has often denounced Mr. Trump’s role in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, and is among several Democrats appointed by Democratic leadership to a Republican-led House subcommittee that was formed to revise the historical record of those events. The Democrats on the subcommittee intend to try to compel it to stick to an accurate version of the day’s violence.

他多次公开谴责特朗普在2021年1月6日国会山骚乱事件中所扮演的角色，同时也是民主党领导层指派进入共和党主导的众议院特别委员会的数名民主党人之一。该小组委员会的成立旨在修订关于这些事件的历史记录，而委员会中的民主党人则试图迫使委员会维持当天暴力事件的真实原貌。

“Donald Trump is on a war path to rewrite that history,” Mr. Swalwell said in September after joining the subcommittee. “He has pardoned the insurrectionists, vilified the cops who defended us, attacked those who investigated him and even forced the Smithsonian to whitewash the record.”

斯沃韦尔在9月加入该委员会后曾表示：“唐纳德·特朗普正不遗余力地篡改这段历史。他赦免了暴乱分子，诋毁了保卫我们的警察，攻击了调查他的人，甚至逼迫史密森尼学会粉饰相关记录。”

Mr. Swalwell first came into contact with Ms. Fang when he was a council member in the city of Dublin, Calif., before being elected to the House in 2012, according to an Axios article from 2020. Since her days as a university student in the Bay Area, Ms. Fang had developed ties to a wide range of American politicians, including at least two mayors in the Midwest. Her activities eventually drew the interest of counterintelligence agents at the F.B.I.

据新闻网站Axios 2020年的一篇报道，斯沃韦尔在2012年当选联邦众议员之前担任加州都柏林市市议员，在那期间与方芳有了初次接触。从她在湾区读大学时起，方芳就与众多美国政界人士建立了联系，其中至少包括两名中西部地区的市长。她的活动最终引起了联邦调查局反间谍特工的注意。

In 2015, agents gave Mr. Swalwell a briefing about their suspicions of Ms. Fang, who they believed was acting under the direction of China’s main spy agency, the Ministry of State Security. Mr. Swalwell in turn severed his ties to her. She left for China that year.

2015年，特工向斯沃韦尔通报了他们对方芳的怀疑，认为她是在中国主要情报机构国家安全部的指挥下行事。斯沃韦尔随即与她断绝了所有联系。同年，方芳返回中国。

Ms. Fang could not be reached for comment.

记者无法联系到方芳置评。

In 2024, Hu Xijin, the former editor in chief of Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party newspaper, posted online a photo of him and Ms. Fang having lunch. He wrote that she had gone to the United States in 2009 to study and “did a lot of work to promote personnel exchanges” between the two nations. Then in 2015, he wrote, the C.I.A. and F.B.I. approached her and tried to get her to work for them through coercion and bribery.

2024年，中共党报《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进在网上发布了一张自己与方芳共进午餐的照片。他写道，方芳2009年赴美留学，“为推动两国人员交流做了大量工作”。他还称，2015年，美国中央情报局和联邦调查局曾接触她，试图通过胁迫与贿赂让她为美方工作。

She fled the country three days after a “showdown” with the F.B.I., he said, and “in the end, her dreams were shattered.”

他表示，在与联邦调查局“摊牌”三天后，她逃离了美国，“最终，她的梦想破碎了”。

Thousands of demonstrations against the Trump administration unfolded across the country on Saturday, the third round in a nationwide series of loosely coordinated “No Kings” rallies.

周六，全美各地爆发了数千场针对特朗普政府的示威活动，这是一系列松散协调的“不要国王”集会的第三轮。

The day of protest, the first since October, came as the midterm election season takes shape, and as Democrats work to capitalize politically on the unpopular war with Iran.

这是自去年10月以来的首个抗议活动。与此同时，中期选举周期正在展开，民主党也试图在政治上利用这场不得人心的对伊朗战争。

Exactly a month earlier, President Trump ordered the first U.S. strikes against Iran, setting off a conflict that has sent gasoline prices soaring and rattled Republicans.

整整一个月前，特朗普总统下令发动美国对伊朗的首轮打击，由此引发的冲突导致油价飙升，并让共和党人感到不安。

The war was a central animating force in the Saturday rallies, which were attended by roughly eight million people, according to “No Kings” organizers, though their estimates in some cities were higher than those of local public safety officials. But the fighting in the Middle East was hardly the only issue on the minds of frustrated Democrats.

这场战争是周六集会的主要推动力。据“不要国王”示威活动的组织者称，约有800万人参加了集会，不过在一些城市，他们的估计数字高于当地公共安全官员的数据。但对沮丧的民主党人来说，中东的战事远非他们心中关切的唯一问题。

Here are five takeaways.

以下是关于这次示威活动的五个要点。

The war seemed to galvanize younger voters.

这场战争似乎激发了年轻选民的参与热情。

Many protesters said that the war had brought them out on Saturday. And at least in some places, the conflict appeared to be motivating younger people.

许多抗议者表示，这场战争是促使他们在周六走上街头的原因。至少在一些地方，这场冲突似乎正在激发年轻人的参与热情。

One large rally was held across the street from the University of Iowa, where the youth outreach group Voters of Tomorrow signed students up to join its organizing efforts.

在爱荷华大学街对面举行的一场大型集会上，青年动员组织“明日选民”在现场对学生进行登记，吸纳他们参与组织工作。

Katy Gates, 22, an organizer, said the crowd was “a lot younger, more diverse and more energetic” than those at previous “No Kings” demonstrations. She attributed the change, in part, to the war.

22岁的组织者凯蒂·盖茨表示，与此前的“不要国王”示威活动相比，这次的人群“明显更年轻、更多元，也更有活力”。她认为，这种变化在一定程度上源于这场战争。

“Our generation has grown up with this idea of endless war in the Middle East,” Ms. Gates said. “And the idea of getting into yet another is something that people are rightfully really angry about.”

“我们这一代是在‘中东无休止战争’的观念中长大的，”盖茨说，“再次卷入一场这样的战争自然会让人非常愤怒。”

Among those at the protest was Zach Wahls, 34, a state lawmaker running in Iowa’s competitive Democratic primary race for Senate. “I have not yet met somebody who is interested in another endless war in the Middle East,” he said.

参加抗议活动的还有34岁的州议员扎克·沃尔斯，他正在角逐爱荷华州竞争激烈的民主党参议员初选。“到目前为止，我还没遇到有人对再打一场中东的无休止战争感兴趣，”他说。

内布拉斯加州奥马哈一场抗议活动中的示威者。

Trump’s immigration crackdown remains a focus.

对特朗普移民打压政策的反对仍是焦点。

Even with the war in Iran dominating the national conversation, opposition to Mr. Trump’s immigration crackdown and Immigration and Customs Enforcement remained a rallying cry on Saturday.

尽管伊战主导了全国舆论，但反对特朗普移民打击行动以及反对ICE的呼声仍然是周六集会上的重要动员口号。

The sprawling, flagship “No Kings” protest was held in Minnesota, where two U.S. citizens were killed by federal agents this winter as part of unrest over the Trump administration’s immigration operation there. (The administration last month ended its surge of federal agents in Minnesota, responding to mounting public criticism.)

最具代表性的大规模“不要国王”抗议活动出现在明尼苏达州。在过去的这个冬天，当地因特朗普政府的移民执法行动引发骚乱，联邦执法人员在行动中造成两名美国公民死亡。上个月，面对日益高涨的公众批评，政府结束了在明尼苏达州增派联邦特工的行动。

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Senator Bernie Sanders, the progressive Vermont independent, spoke at the protest, which was held at the State Capitol building in St. Paul. Bruce Springsteen sang a song about the two citizens who died.

明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔兹和佛蒙特州进步派独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯在圣保罗的州议会大厦举行的抗议活动上发表讲话。布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀演唱了一首关于那两名遇难公民的歌曲。

“This is still America,” Mr. Springsteen said. “And this reactionary nightmare and these invasions of American cities will not stand.”

“这依然是美国，”斯普林斯汀说，“这种反动的噩梦以及对美国城市的入侵是不会得逞的。”

In Minnesota, there were also loud chants of “end this war” and plenty of signs objecting to the conflict.

在明尼苏达州，现场还响起“结束这场战争”的高呼声，许多标语也表达了对这场冲突的反对。

Dana R. Fisher, a professor at American University who studies civic engagement and surveyed protesters in Washington, said the share who described war and peace as their main motivator jumped drastically on Saturday compared with previous protests. But it was comparable to the share who cited concern about the administration’s handling of immigration, she said.

美利坚大学研究公民参与的教授达娜·费舍尔在华盛顿对抗议者进行了调查。她表示，与之前的抗议活动相比，周六将战争与和平列为主要动机的受访者比例大幅上升。但她表示，这一比例与担忧政府移民政策处理方式的受访者比例相当。

在佛罗里达州，抗议者聚集在距离特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园不远的地方。

Dueling protests unfolded near Mar-a-Lago.

在马阿拉歌庄园附近，出现了针锋相对的抗议活动。

Thousands of protesters gathered on a grassy public space by a Target about a 15-minute drive from Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach County, Fla., participants said. One demonstrator carried a sign that said “Grab ’em by the midterms,” playing on the vulgar, caught-on-tape comment Mr. Trump made about women in 2005.

参与者称，数千名抗议者聚集在佛罗里达州棕榈滩县一家塔吉特超市旁的公共绿地，这里距离特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园约15分钟车程。其中一名示威者举着写有“抓住他们的中期选举”(Grab ’em by the midterms)的标语，这个梗来源于特朗普2005年被人录下的一段粗俗言论。

The crowd included Emily Gregory, a Democrat and first-time candidate who won an upset victory this past week in a Florida state legislative race to represent the area.

人群中还包括民主党人、首次参选的候选人艾米丽·格雷戈里。她上周在佛罗里达州一场州议会选举中爆冷获胜，将代表该地区。

After prevailing in a district that Mr. Trump carried by 11 percentage points in 2024, she was greeted like a celebrity on Saturday.

她在周六受到明星般的欢迎，她赢下的是一个特朗普于2024年以11个百分点的优势拿下的选区。

“There were people that were asking us if that was really her,” said Lacy Larson, 47, an organizer.

“还有人问我们那真的是她吗，”47岁的组织者莱西·拉森说。

The rally’s atmosphere was mostly celebratory, and a D.J. played music by Mr. Springsteen, Bob Marley and Tracy Chapman. “Some fine protest jams,” Ms. Gregory said in an interview.

集会的气氛总体上是庆祝性的，一位DJ播放了斯普林斯汀、鲍勃·马利和特雷西·查普曼的歌。“都是一些很适合抗议的曲目，”格雷戈里在接受采访时说。

But counterprotesters gathered to stand up for the county’s most famous resident. They unfurled a large pro-Trump flag, and the two sides chanted at each other.

不过，也有反对这次示威的人聚集起来，声援该县最著名的居民。他们展开了一面巨大的挺特朗普旗帜，双方互相高喊口号。

The White House itself had mocked the nationwide protests. Abigail Jackson, a spokeswoman, said on Thursday that “the only people who care about these Trump derangement therapy sessions are the reporters who are paid to cover them.”

白宫方面则对全国性的抗议加以嘲讽。发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊周四表示：“真正关心这些‘特朗普焦虑症治疗会’的，就是那些拿了钱来报道它们的记者。”

Midterm candidates came out in force.

中期选举候选人纷纷亮相。

From sunny Southern California to the unseasonably frigid northern reaches of New England, Democratic candidates in the midterm elections took to the streets to vent with voters about the Trump administration.

从阳光明媚的南加州到反常寒冷的新英格兰北部，参加中期选举的民主党候选人纷纷走上街头，与选民一起表达对特朗普政府的不满。

Gov. Janet Mills of Maine, a Democrat who is running for Senate in one of this year’s most-watched races, attended three “No Kings” protests in and around Portland, the state’s largest city and a Democratic stronghold. Her Democratic rival, Graham Platner, an oyster farmer running as a political outsider, spoke at a protest in Aroostook County, the state’s northernmost county, where Mr. Trump won by 26 points in 2024.

缅因州州长、民主党人珍妮特·米尔斯正在竞选参议员席位，这是今年最受关注的选战之一。她在该州最大城市、民主党票仓波特兰及周边地区参加了三场“不要国王”抗议活动。她的民主党初选对手格雷厄姆·普拉特纳是一名牡蛎养殖户，以政治圈外人身份参选，他在该州最北部的阿鲁斯图克县的一场抗议活动中发表了讲话。2024年，特朗普在该县以26个百分点的优势获胜。

Ms. Mills and Mr. Platner are battling for the chance to take on Senator Susan Collins, a Republican seen as one of her party’s most vulnerable incumbents.

米尔斯与普拉特纳正争夺挑战共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯的资格。柯林斯被视为该党最可能失去席位的在任议员之一。

In Michigan, Mallory McMorrow, a state lawmaker who is in another closely watched Democratic primary for Senate, attended a rally in the Detroit suburbs. One of her leading rivals, Representative Haley Stevens, joined one in downtown Detroit.

在密歇根州，正在另一场备受关注的民主党参议员初选中角逐的州议员马洛里·麦克莫罗参加了底特律郊区的一场集会。她的主要竞争对手之一、联邦众议员海莉·史蒂文斯则参加了底特律市中心的集会。

And Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, who is seeking to fend off a Democratic primary challenge from Representative Seth Moulton, joined protests in Boston and its suburbs. Mr. Moulton attended a rally near Boston.

马萨诸塞州参议员埃德·马基也参加了波士顿及其郊区的抗议活动，他正在努力抵御来自联邦众议员塞思·莫尔顿的民主党内初选挑战。莫尔顿则出席了波士顿附近的一场集会。

Some Democrats seen as potential 2028 presidential contenders got in on the action, too. Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary and 2020 presidential candidate, attended a rally in Traverse City, Mich., where he lives. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who also ran in 2020, joined a protest in St. Louis. (He was in the city as part of a book tour.)

一些被视为2028年总统潜在人选的民主党人也参与其中。前交通部长、2020年总统候选人彼特·巴蒂吉格在其居住地密歇根州特拉弗斯城参加了集会。曾在2020年参加总统大选的联邦参议员、新泽西州的科里·布克则出现在圣路易斯的一场抗议中。（他正在当地进行新书巡回宣传。）

皇后区森林小丘的一场游行。

Democrats found fresh fuel for their ‘No Kings’ slogan.

民主党人为他们的“不要国王”口号找到了新着力点。

Two days before the protests, the Treasury Department said that it would begin printing dollars with Mr. Trump’s signature on them, a first for a sitting U.S. president.

抗议活动前两天，财政部宣布将开始印制带有特朗普签名的纸币，这在现任美国总统中尚属首次。

The move continued a trend for Mr. Trump, whose allies have sought to put his name on the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and the U.S. Institute of Peace, among other institutions and landmarks. The efforts have enraged many of his critics, who cast him as an aspiring monarch.

这一举动延续了特朗普的一贯做法：其盟友已试图将他的名字给肯尼迪表演艺术中心、美国和平研究所等机构和地标冠名。这些行为激怒了许多批评者，他们指责他企图成为君主。

In a nod to the protests, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, said on Saturday that she planned to introduce a bill to bar presidents from putting their name, likeness or signature on federal property or money.

作为对此次抗议活动的呼应，纽约州参议员、民主党参议院竞选委员会主席陆天娜(Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand)周六表示，她计划提出一项法案，禁止总统将自己的名字、肖像或签名用于联邦财产或货币。

“In America,” Ms. Gillibrand said in a statement, “we do not bow to kings.”

“在美国，”吉利布兰德在声明中说，“我们不向国王低头。”

The United States Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump administration, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter.

据一名知情美国官员透露，美国海岸警卫队将放行一艘满载原油的俄罗斯油轮驶入古巴。在特朗普政府实施了长达数月的实质性石油封锁后，这艘油轮将为这个岛国输送关键的能源补给。

The tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil and is owned by the Russian government, was within several miles of Cuban territorial waters on Sunday evening, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider. At its speed of 12 knots, the tanker could reach its expected destination of Matanzas, Cuba, by Monday night.

船舶数据提供商MarineTraffic的数据显示，这艘隶属于俄罗斯政府、载油量约73万桶的油轮已于周日晚间驶至距古巴领海仅数公里的海域。以12节的航速计算，该油轮预计将于周一晚间抵达预定目的地古巴马坦萨斯港。

The Russian ship’s arrival would shift the trajectory of a rapidly accelerating crisis in Cuba, buying the island nation at least a few weeks before its fuel reserves run out, analysts said.

分析人士表示，这艘俄罗斯油轮的抵港将改变古巴国内急速升级的危机走势，为这个岛国在燃油储备耗尽前争取到至少数周时间。

It would also reduce pressure on a Cuban government facing a looming economic collapse and escalating threats from Washington, and show that, at least for now, the island can still depend on its longtime ally, Russia.

此举也将缓解古巴政府面临的双重压力——迫在眉睫的经济崩盘风险及华盛顿不断升级的威胁。这也证明，至少在当下，这个岛国依然可以依靠其长期盟友俄罗斯。

The Trump administration had been enforcing what amounted to an oil blockade around Cuba since January, threatening nations that had been sending fuel to the country and, in one case, escorting a tanker heading toward Cuba away from the island.

自今年1月起，特朗普政府在古巴周边实施了实质上的石油封锁，不仅对所有向古巴输送燃油的国家发出威胁，还曾出动舰船将一艘驶往古巴的油轮驱离该岛。

The Coast Guard has two cutters in the region that could have attempted to intercept the Russian tanker. Yet the Trump administration did not order those vessels to act, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operations. Barring orders instructing it otherwise, the Coast Guard planned to let the tanker reach Cuba as of Sunday afternoon, the official said.

美国海岸警卫队在该海域部署有两艘巡逻舰，本可尝试拦截这艘俄罗斯油轮。但据一名因涉及机密行动而要求匿名的知情美国官员透露，特朗普政府并未向这些舰船下达行动指令。该官员称，截至周日下午，除非收到另行指令，否则海岸警卫队计划放行这艘油轮驶入古巴。

It was unclear why the White House did not issue orders to block the tanker or whether it would allow future Russian oil shipments to reach the island. The decision avoids a potential thorny confrontation with Russia just off the coast of Florida.

目前尚不清楚白宫为何未下达拦截这艘油轮的命令，也无法确定美方未来是否会放行俄罗斯向古巴输送石油的其他货运船只。这一决定避免了美国在佛罗里达州近海与俄罗斯爆发棘手的正面冲突。

The Coast Guard referred questions to the White House, which did not respond to a request for comment. Cuban officials also did not respond.

美国海岸警卫队将相关问题转交了白宫，而白宫并未回应记者的置评请求。古巴官方同样未作出回应。

The Russian Embassy in Mexico said in a statement that “the Russian Federation expresses its full solidarity with Cuba, considers all restrictions imposed against it to be illegitimate — including those related to the supply of energy resources — and is prepared to provide all necessary assistance, including material support.”

俄罗斯驻墨西哥大使馆发表声明称：“俄罗斯联邦对古巴表示全力声援，我们认为对古巴实施的所有限制措施均为非法，包括与能源供应相关的限制，同时俄方已准备好提供一切必要援助，包括物资支持。”

The U.S. oil blockade has been choking Cuba, leading to daily blackouts, severe gas shortages, soaring prices and deteriorating medical care. The policy has attracted international criticism, including from the United Nations, that the United States is causing a humanitarian crisis in Cuba. At the same time, White House officials have been threatening the Cuban government publicly, while pushing it privately to remove its president, Miguel Díaz-Canel.

美国的石油封锁已让古巴陷入窒息，国内出现每日停电、燃油严重短缺、物价飞涨、医疗体系持续恶化的局面。这项政策招致了包括联合国在内的国际社会的广泛批评，各方普遍认为美国正在古巴制造人道主义危机。与此同时，白宫官员一边公开对古巴政府发出威胁，一边在私下推动古巴罢免其总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔。

President Trump said this month that he believed he will “be having the honor of taking Cuba” and suggested that he could target the island with military force after the Iran war. “I built this great military,” he said at an investment conference on Friday. “I said, ‘You’ll never have to use it.’ ​But sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba is ​next, by the way.”

特朗普总统本月曾表示，他相信自己将“有幸拿下古巴”，还暗示在对伊朗的战争结束后，可能会对这个岛国动用军事力量。“我打造了这支伟大的军队，”他在上周五的一场投资会议上表示。“我曾说过，‘你们永远都用不着它’。但有时候，你不得不动用它。顺便说一句，下一个目标就是古巴。”

古巴前总统菲德尔·卡斯特罗和劳尔·卡斯特罗，以及现任总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔的照片，本月摄于哈瓦那。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the White House wanted new leaders in Cuba. “Cuba’s economy needs to change, and their economy can’t change unless their system of government changes,” he told reporters.

国务卿鲁比奥上周五表示，白宫希望古巴更换领导层。他对记者称：“古巴的经济必须改变，除非它的政治体制发生变革，否则经济根本不可能改变。”

Cuban officials have dug in, saying the nation is prepared to defend itself.

古巴官方立场强硬，明确表示该国已做好自卫准备。

“Our military is always prepared and, in fact, it is preparing these days for the possibility of military aggression,” Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, said on NBC’s Meet the Press last week. “We would be naïve if, looking at what’s happening around the world, we would not do that. But we truly hope that it doesn’t occur.”

古巴副外长卡洛斯·费尔南德斯·德科西奥上周在NBC的《与媒体见面》节目中表示：“我们的军队始终保持战备状态，事实上，近期正在针对可能发生的军事入侵做准备。看看当下全球发生的各种事件，如果我们不做这样的准备，那未免太过天真。但我们真心希望，这样的事情永远不会发生。”

The oil tanker now nearing Cuba may change the shape of tensions between the countries. Cuba was quickly running out of energy supplies, relying on solar power, domestic oil production and small fuel shipments to private Cuban businesses to prop up a failing energy grid. The crisis had led to small protests — a rarity in Cuba — and was raising questions of how the government would survive.

这艘即将抵近古巴的油轮或将改变美古两国间的紧张局势走向。此前古巴的能源储备已濒临耗尽，只能依靠太阳能、国内石油产量，以及面向古巴私营企业的小额燃油货运勉强支撑濒临崩溃的能源电网。这场能源危机已引发了小规模抗议活动——这在古巴极为罕见，同时也让外界质疑古巴政府能否维持运转。

But the Russian oil will ease that crisis, at least temporarily. The oil can be refined into various products, including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and fuel oil, which is used to power many Cuban power plants. That should help stabilize the energy grid, reduce blackouts, improve transportation and aid agricultural production, said Jorge Piñón, a former oil executive who studies Cuba’s energy system at the University of Texas.

但这批来自俄罗斯的原油至少能暂时缓解这场危机。这批原油可被提炼成多种成品油，包括柴油、汽油、航空煤油，以及古巴多家发电厂使用的燃料油。得克萨斯大学研究古巴能源体系的前石油行业高管豪尔赫·皮尼翁表示，这将有助于稳定古巴的能源电网、减少停电、改善交通状况，并为农业生产提供支持。

“It buys them time,” Mr. Piñón said. “But this is not a magic wand that all of a sudden, by the arrival of this tanker, all of their problems are solved.”

“这为他们争取了时间，”皮尼翁说。“但这不是魔法棒，不会因为这艘油轮的到来，就让他们所有的问题瞬间迎刃而解。”

Mr. Piñón said that the oil would take about three weeks to refine into other products and then another week to be distributed around the country.

皮尼翁表示，这批原油需要约三周时间提炼成各类成品油，之后还需一周时间才能分发至古巴全国各地。

Diesel he said, is the most critical product for Cuba, as it powers trucks, tractors and many power plants, and is in desperately short supply on the island. Some humanitarian aid has been trapped at warehouses because trucks don’t have diesel to distribute it, farms have been paralyzed with powerless tractors and some power plants have been shut down because of a lack of fuel.

他表示，柴油是古巴最关键的油品，卡车、拖拉机和多家发电厂都依赖柴油运转，而目前该岛国的柴油缺口已极为严峻。部分人道主义援助物资被困在仓库中，因为没有柴油驱动的卡车进行配送；农场因拖拉机无法运转陷入瘫痪；多家发电厂也因燃料短缺被迫关停。

上个月，哈瓦那湾的一座炼油厂。

Cuba has kept the lights on — albeit inconsistently — because 40 percent of its energy grid is supported by power plants that largely run on crude oil that Cuba produces domestically. Cuba has also been racing to install solar panels to prop up the grid. But Mr. Piñón said that 40 percent of the grid depends on smaller power plants that use diesel.

古巴之所以还能勉强维持供电——尽管极不稳定——是因为其40%的电网由主要依靠本国自产原油的发电厂支撑。古巴也一直在加紧安装太阳能电池板，以支撑电网运转。但皮尼翁指出，该国另有40%的电网依赖以柴油为燃料的小型发电厂。

He estimated that Cuba could use up the Russian oil in less than a month. But he expected the government to preserve some energy supplies for its strategic reserves and security forces.

他估算，这批来自俄罗斯的原油不到一个月就会消耗殆尽。但他预计，古巴政府会为战略储备和安全部队留存一部分能源供应。

“This is going to give diesel to the police, to the military units, to basically the whole apparatus of the Cuban government,” he said.

“这批油品将为古巴警方、军队单位，乃至古巴政府的整个国家机器提供柴油保障，”他说。

Henry C. Lee, a renowned forensic scientist who testified in numerous high-profile criminal cases, most notably the 1995 murder trial of the former football star O.J. Simpson, died on Friday at his home in Henderson, Nev. He was 87.

曾为无数轰动一时的刑事案件出庭作证、并因1995年前橄榄球明星辛普森杀妻案审判而闻名遐迩的著名刑事鉴识专家李昌钰，于周五在内华达州亨德森的家中去世，享年87岁。

His death, following a brief illness, was announced by his family and the University of New Haven in Connecticut, where he was a professor for more than 50 years.

他的家人及其任教超过50年的康涅狄格州纽黑文大学宣布了他的死讯，称其去世前曾短暂患病。

Dr. Lee served as a consultant to some 600 law enforcement agencies and testified more than 1,000 times in criminal and civil court in the United States and abroad, the university said. In 2000, The New York Times called him “perhaps the world’s most highly regarded forensic criminologist,” though his reputation was called into question later in his career.

校方表示，李昌钰博士曾为大约600家执法机构提供咨询，并在美国及海外的刑事和民事法庭出庭作证超过1000次。2000年，《纽约时报》称他“或许是世界上最受尊敬的鉴识犯罪学家”，不过在职业生涯后期，他的声誉也曾受到质疑。

Many of his cases were widely publicized, but none drew more attention than the Simpson case, which became a deliberation about race in America. Dr. Lee testified for the defense, saying that there was “something wrong” with the way the Los Angeles Police Department had handled the blood that was collected as evidence.

他参与的案件中，许多都广为人知，但最受关注的无疑是辛普森案，该案在很大程度上演变为一场关于美国种族问题的公共讨论。李昌钰在庭审中为辩方作证，称洛杉矶警察局处理收集到的血液证据的方式“存在问题”。

His testimony supported the defense team’s suggestion that the evidence could have been tampered with and that officers might have planted Mr. Simpson’s blood at the crime scene. Mr. Simpson was acquitted of the murder of Nicole Brown Simpson, his former wife, and her friend, Ronald L. Goldman.

他的证词支持了辩方的说法，即相关证据可能被篡改，警方也可能在案发现场栽赃辛普森的血迹。最终，辛普森被判无罪，未被认定谋杀前妻妮可·布朗·辛普森及其友人罗纳德·戈德曼的指控。

Dr. Lee served as a consultant on other cases that drew extensive public attention, including the 1996 killing of 6-year-old JonBenet Ramsey in Colorado and the 2007 murder trial of the record producer Phil Spector.

李昌钰还曾担任过其他多起引发社会广泛关注的案件顾问，包括1996年科罗拉多州六岁女童乔贝妮特·拉姆齐遇害案，以及2007年唱片制作人菲尔·斯派克特的杀人案审理。

But it was in 1986, when he identified a murdered woman based on the fragments of bone, teeth and fingernails he was able to find after her body had been put through a wood-chipping machine, that he began to make a name for himself. He helped to convict her husband in what became Connecticut’s first murder conviction without a corpse.

但真正让他声名鹊起的是1986年的一宗案件——当时一名女子的尸体被投入碎木机，他仅凭现场所能找到的骨骼、牙齿和指甲碎片确认了死者身份。他还协助定罪了这名女子的丈夫，这起案件成为康涅狄格州首例无尸定罪的杀人案。

Dr. Lee also once managed to have 11 miles of one of the nation’s busiest highways shut down overnight to recreate a shooting on the New Jersey Turnpike. His career, The Times wrote in 2000, “tipped the balance in favor of crime-fighting as science rather than art.”

李昌钰还曾让美国最繁忙的高速公路之一——新泽西收费公路在夜间封闭了约18公里，以便模拟一起枪击事件。《纽约时报》在2000年写道，他的职业生涯“推动了刑侦从一门技艺转向一门科学”。

He did not, however, hesitate to use theatricality in the courtroom when he considered it necessary. He dropped red ink from a fountain pen held at various heights and angles to show jurors how blood splatters could reveal the way a crime had been committed. He used ketchup and mustard as props to demonstrate how a sequence of multiple stabbings could be determined.

不过，只要他认为有必要，他并不避讳在法庭上运用戏剧化性手法。他曾拿着钢笔，从不同的高度和角度滴下红墨水，向陪审员演示血迹喷溅如何揭示犯罪过程。他还曾用番茄酱和芥末酱作为道具，演示如何判定多次捅刺的先后顺序。

1995年辛普森案审判中，李昌钰为辩方出庭作证。

He also used his dry wit on the witness stand. In 1991, he testified for the defense in a sexual assault trial that resulted in the acquittal of William Kennedy Smith, a nephew of former President John F. Kennedy.

在证人席上，他也时常展现冷幽默。1991年，他曾为前总统约翰·肯尼迪的侄子威廉·肯尼迪·史密斯的性侵案审判担任辩方证人，该案最终以被告无罪开释告终。

When asked by the prosecution why he had used a silk handkerchief to rub on the grass in front of the Kennedy compound in Palm Beach, Fla., to see if the grass would have left stains on the accuser’s panties, Dr. Lee replied, “Usually, I do not carry panties. I carry handkerchief.”

当控方问他为什么在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的肯尼迪庄园前用一块丝绸手帕摩擦草坪（以测试草地是否会在原告的内裤上留下污渍）时，李昌钰回答道：“一般情况下，我不会随身携带内裤，我带的是手帕。”

Henry Chang-yuh Lee was born on Nov. 22, 1938, in Rugao, China, northwest of Shanghai. His father, Homing Lee, and mother, Annfu Wang, were business owners. The family fled to Taiwan in the 1940s, during a period of conflict between the Nationalists and the Communists in China.

李昌钰1938年11月22日出生在上海西北方向的如皋。他的父亲李浩民和母亲王岸佛均为商人。20世纪40年代，正值国共冲突，他们举家迁往台湾。

While traveling separately to meet the family in Taiwan, his father was killed in a shipwreck, and his mother had to raise 13 children alone, Dr. Lee said in 2016, during an appearance at a Connecticut high school.

2016年，李昌钰在康涅狄格州一所高中发表的演讲中提到，当年全家分别前往台湾汇合，他的父亲在海难中丧生。母亲不得不独自抚养13个孩子。

Their once-affluent family was left with little money. As a child, he owned one pair of shoes, he said, and he took them off during his two-mile walk to school to keep them from wearing out.

这个曾经富裕的家庭从此家境拮据。他说，自己小时候只有一双鞋，在每天步行三公里上学时常把鞋脱下来拎在手里，以免把鞋磨坏。

His mother, who lived to be more than 100 years old, pushed him to succeed, spanking him when he didn’t do his homework. “Today, they would call it child abuse,” he said. “But I thank her for it.”

他的母亲活到了100多岁，一直督促他出人头地，如果他不写作业就会挨打。“放在今天，这会被称为虐待儿童，”他说。“但我对此心存感激。”

After finishing school, he enrolled at a police academy, one of the few opportunities available to him, and became a captain with the Taipei City Police Department. He married Margaret Song in 1962, and in 1965 they left for New York at the urging of his sister Sylvia Lee-Huang, a biochemistry professor at New York University.

完成学业后，他进入了警察学校——那是当时他为数不多的出路之一——后在台北市警察局任巡官。1962年，他与宋妙娟结婚；1965年，在姐姐、纽约大学生物化学教授李小枫的劝说下，两人前往纽约发展。

At the time, he knew four words of English, he told The Times in 2000, and worked as a waiter, groundskeeper, stock boy and martial arts instructor while attending the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in forensic science in 1972. He went on to earn a master’s degree in biochemistry in 1974 and a doctorate in 1975, both from New York University, before joining the University of New Haven, where he founded the forensic science program.

他在2000年接受《纽约时报》采访时说，当时自己只会四个英语单词，一边在约翰杰伊刑事司法学院求学，一边做服务员、园丁、理货员和武术教练。1972年，他在那里获得刑事鉴识科学学士学位，随后于1974年和1975年在纽约大学分别取得生物化学硕士和博士学位。之后他加入纽黑文大学，并创立了刑事鉴识专业。

From 1978 to 2000, Dr. Lee served as the chief criminalist for the State of Connecticut and the director of the state’s Police Forensic Science Laboratory. From 1998 to 2000, he also served as commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Public Safety and the Connecticut State Police.

从1978年到2000年，李昌钰担任康涅狄格州首席刑事专家兼州警政鉴识科学实验室主任。1998年至2000年间，他还担任了康涅狄格州公共安全部部长及州警察局局长。

Dr. Lee’s first wife died in 2017. He is survived by Xiaping Jiang, whom he married in 2018; two children, Sherry Hersey and Stanley Lee, from his first marriage; two stepsons, Yan Liu and Tianchen Liu; four grandchildren; and his sister Sylvia.

李昌钰的第一任妻子于2017年去世。他的遗属包括：2018年与他结为连理的蒋霞萍；第一段婚姻留下的两个孩子李孝美和李孝约；两名继子刘焱和刘天辰；四名孙辈；以及姐姐李小枫。

In the mid-1980s, in the so-called preppy murder case, Dr. Lee was hired by the team defending Robert E. Chambers Jr., who was accused of murdering Jennifer Levin in Central Park. Dr. Lee was never called to testify because he told Mr. Chambers’s lawyer, Jack Litman, that his client was “guilty as hell.” Mr. Chambers pleaded guilty to manslaughter in 1988.

上世纪80年代中期，在所谓的“预科生谋杀案”中，李昌钰受雇于罗伯特·钱伯斯的辩护团队，后者被控在中央公园谋杀了詹妮弗·莱文。然而，李昌钰从未被传唤出庭作证，因为他告诉钱伯斯的律师杰克·利特曼，他的当事人“简直罪大恶极”。1988年，钱伯斯对过失杀人罪表示认罪。

Later in life, Dr. Lee faced scrutiny himself, as his work on two cases and his reputation were challenged.

到了后期，李昌钰本人也面临严苛的审视，他在两起案件中的表现及其个人声誉都遭到了质疑。

In 2007, the judge in the murder trial of Mr. Spector ruled that Dr. Lee, a consultant for the defense, had removed something from the crime scene and hidden it from the prosecution.

2007年，在菲尔·斯佩克特谋杀案的审理中，法官裁定，作为辩方顾问的李昌钰曾从案发现场取走某样物品，并对检方隐瞒。

Prosecutors contended that it was a piece of fingernail that would have shown that the actress Lana Clarkson had resisted having a gun placed in her mouth before being shot at Mr. Spector’s California home. The defense claimed that she had shot herself.

检方称，那是一片指甲碎片，它可以证明将表明女演员拉娜·克拉克森在斯佩克特位于加州的住所被枪杀前，曾试图反抗对方将枪塞入自己口中。辩方则称她是自杀。

The judge did not hold Dr. Lee in contempt, and Dr. Lee denied taking anything from the crime scene. After the first trial ended in a hung jury, Mr. Spector was convicted of second-degree murder in 2009.

法官并未以藐视法庭罪追究李昌钰责任，李昌钰也否认从案发现场拿走过任何物品。在第一次审判因陪审团无法达成一致而未能做出裁决后，斯佩克特于2009年被判二级谋杀罪成立。

In 2023, Connecticut’s attorney general agreed to a $25 million settlement with two men who had spent three decades in jail after being convicted of murder. Those convictions, which were overturned in 2020, had been based in part on testimony by Dr. Lee regarding the supposed presence of blood on a towel. A federal judge ruled that Dr. Lee had fabricated the evidence, saying that there was no corroboration that he had conducted any blood tests on the towel.

2023年，康涅狄格州总检察长同意与两名男子达成2500万美元的和解，他们此前因谋杀罪被定罪并入狱30年。这些定罪于2020年被推翻，而当年的定罪部分依据是李昌钰关于一条毛巾上存在血迹的证词。联邦法官裁定李昌钰伪造了该证据，并表示没有任何证据能证明他曾对那块毛巾进行过任何血迹测试。

Dr. Lee defended himself in a statement, saying, “I have no motive nor reason to fabricate evidence.”

李昌钰在一份声明中为自己辩护道：“我没有任何动机，也没有理由去伪造证据。”

When President Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba acknowledged this month that his government was engaged in secret talks with the Trump administration, he revealed that the person guiding the negotiations was the “historical leader of the revolution.”

古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔本月承认政府正与特朗普政府进行秘密谈判，并透露主导谈判的是“革命历史领袖”。

That honorific is reserved for Raúl Castro, 94, who succeeded his brother Fidel Castro as Cuba’s president from 2008 to 2018, before retreating from the public eye to project an image of a civilian transition under Mr. Díaz-Canel.

这一尊称专指94岁的劳尔·卡斯特罗。他于2008年至2018年接替兄长菲德尔·卡斯特罗担任古巴国家元首，此后淡出公众视野，彰显迪亚斯-卡内尔领导下的平民权力交接。

But with Cuba on the brink of economic collapse from a U.S. oil blockade and gripped by a worsening humanitarian crisis, other members of the Castro family have emerged from the shadows.

但在美国石油封锁导致古巴经济濒临崩溃、人道主义危机持续恶化之际，卡斯特罗家族的其他成员纷纷从幕后走向台前。

One has spoken directly with Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state. Another is taking part in the negotiations with the Trump administration. Yet another is the public face of Cuba’s groundbreaking (and tantalizing) decision to allow Cuban exiles to invest in the island.

其中一人直接与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话，另一人参与对特朗普政府谈判，还有一人则成为古巴允许流亡者回国投资这一开创性且引人遐想的决定的公开代言人。

The family’s new profile reflects a dynasty that never really exited the political scene, but instead evolved.

该家族的新形象表明，这个政治王朝从未真正退出权力舞台，只是进行了演变。

Even as Trump officials increase pressure for sweeping economic changes in Cuba and press for the removal of Mr. Díaz-Canel, Raúl Castro’s handpicked successor as president, a family long vilified by U.S. leaders is positioning new generations of Castros as the nation’s ultimate power brokers.

尽管特朗普政府加大施压，要求古巴推行全面经济改革，并施压要求拉乌尔·卡斯特罗亲自挑选的总统继任者迪亚斯-卡内尔下台，但长期遭美国领导人诋毁的卡斯特罗家族正将新一代家族成员塑造为古巴最终的权力操盘手。

“This could produce an absurd case of de-Castrofication where the family creates an illusion of change when the real power in Cuba still resides with them and other members of the post-1959 elite,” said Andrés Pertierra, a historian of Cuba at the University of Wisconsin.

“这可能上演一出荒诞的‘去卡斯特罗’戏码：家族制造出变革假象，而古巴的实际权力仍掌握在他们与1959年后的革命精英手中，”威斯康星大学古巴史学者安德烈斯·佩尔蒂埃拉表示。

The Castros have shaped Cuba’s fortunes since 1959, when Fidel and Rául Castro, the sons of a wealthy sugar plantation owner, led the revolution that toppled an old order aligned with the United States. They moved Cuba into the Soviet orbit, turning the Caribbean island into a central player in the Cold War.

自1959年以来，卡斯特罗家族便塑造着古巴的命运。当年，出身富裕甘蔗种植园主家庭的菲德尔与劳尔·卡斯特罗兄弟领导革命，推翻亲美旧秩序，将古巴纳入苏联阵营，使这座加勒比岛国成为冷战中的重要角色。

Fidel Castro, who died in 2016, was the Cuban Revolution’s charismatic “Maximum Leader.” Raúl Castro long maintained a low profile, acting as the main liaison with Moscow and the revolution’s organizational architect, prioritizing bureaucracy, clear hierarchies and administrative efficiency.

2016年去世的菲德尔·卡斯特罗是古巴革命中极具个人魅力的“最高领袖”。劳尔·卡斯特罗长期低调行事，担任对莫斯科主要联络人与革命组织架构师，他重视官僚体系、清晰的层级制度与行政效率。

The Castro brothers faced many challenges to their rule, including C.I.A. assassination plots, a decades-long U.S. embargo and the collapse of the Soviet Union, once Cuba’s main benefactor. Venezuela had replaced the Soviets, becoming Cuba’s top oil supplier, until U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January.

卡斯特罗兄弟执政期间遭遇诸多挑战，包括中情局暗杀阴谋、长达数十年的美国禁运，以及曾是古巴主要援助方的苏联解体。委内瑞拉一度取代苏联成为古巴头号石油供应国，直至今年1月美军抓获尼古拉斯·马杜罗。

Now, with the U.S. ordering Venezuela to halt oil shipments to Cuba, the family faces what may be its greatest challenge: a fuel shortage that has Cuba’s economy teetering, raising questions about the survival of the island’s repressive Communist government.

如今，在美国下令委内瑞拉停止对古巴石油输送后，该家族面临或许最严峻的考验：燃油短缺令古巴经济岌岌可危，也让人对这个岛国上专制共产主义政府的生存能力产生质疑。

The U.S. fuel blockade is intended to produce a regime pliant to U.S. demands, similar to the way Venezuela shifted from adversary to client state with the removal of Mr. Maduro.

美国的石油封锁旨在催生一个顺从美方要求的政权，如同马杜罗倒台后委内瑞拉从对手转变为附庸国的模式。

Mr. Rubio, referring to Cuba, said this month that “the people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it, so they need to get new people in charge.”

鲁比奥本月谈及古巴时称：“掌权者不懂如何解决危机，所以需要换上新的人来掌权。”

Replacing the Castros, if that is what the United States desires, is a tall order.

若美国真的意图取代卡斯特罗家族，这一目标难度极大。

Raúl Castro, who is said to remain lucid and in relatively good health for a man his age, presides over the family. Since stepping down in 2018, his prestige and power remain rooted in his status as Cuba’s most powerful military figure. As defense minister under Fidel Castro, he oversaw the creation of GAESA, a sprawling military-run business conglomerate that is Cuba’s most important economic force.

据称，以其高龄而言，头脑依然清醒、身体状况相对良好的劳尔·卡斯特罗仍然掌管着这个家族。2018年卸任后，他的威望与权力仍植根于古巴军方最高领袖的身份。在菲德尔·卡斯特罗时期担任国防部长期间，他主导创立了古巴军方旗下庞大企业集团GAESA，它也是古巴最重要的经济力量。

Raúl’s children and grandchildren have more prominent official roles in today’s Cuba than Fidel’s descendants, one of whom is an Instagram celebrity known for flaunting a life of luxury in Havana.

在当今的古巴，劳尔子孙后代的官方职位比菲德尔的后代更为显赫，菲德尔的后人中有一位是Instagram上的网红，因在哈瓦那炫耀奢华生活而闻名。

前领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗，摄于今年1月。

One of Raúl Castro’s grandsons, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 41, has emerged as a new player in the crisis. Known as Raúlito, he is also called “El Cangrejo” — the Crab — a reference to being born with six fingers on one of his hands.

劳尔·卡斯特罗41岁的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗已成为此次危机中的新角色。他被称作“劳尔利托”，也有“螃蟹”的绰号，源于天生一只手有六根手指。

Mr. Rodriguez Castro has been part of his grandfather’s security detail, but these days mostly serves as his personal aide. He was once a fixture in Cuba’s elite social circles, hanging out with popular musicians such as the Charanga Habanera, who attended his 2008 wedding at an elite military club.

罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗曾是其祖父安保团队成员，如今主要担任祖父的私人助理。他曾是古巴精英社交圈常客，与哈瓦那查兰加乐队等古巴音乐人交往密切，该乐队曾出席他2008年在一家精英军事俱乐部举行的婚礼。

Now Raúlito also has a role as a messenger in the negotiations with the Trump administration, meeting with Mr. Rubio’s team at a recent event in St. Kitts and Nevis where Caribbean nations had convened.

如今，劳尔利托还担任对特朗普政府谈判的联络人，近期在加勒比国家召开的圣基茨和尼维斯会议上与鲁比奥团队会面。

Stunning those who had grown accustomed to his operating behind the scenes, Raúlito appeared this month on state television sitting alongside the regime’s highest-ranking members when Mr. Díaz-Canel disclosed the talks with Washington.

外界已经习惯了他在幕后行事，然而令人震惊的是，本月迪亚斯-卡内尔披露对美谈判消息时，劳尔利托出现在国家电视台画面中，与该政权最高层官员并肩而坐。

Raúl’s only son, Alejandro Castro Espín, 60, is also resurfacing after largely disappearing from public life when his father stepped down as president. An engineer educated and trained in Cuba and the Soviet Union, and a brigadier general in Cuba’s army, he has held leadership roles in Cuba’s intelligence apparatus and has written books critical of the United States such as “The Empire of Terror.”

劳尔·卡斯特罗60岁的独子亚历杭德罗·卡斯特罗·埃斯平在父亲卸任总统后基本淡出公众视野，如今也重新现身。他是在古巴与苏联接受教育和培训的工程师，拥有古巴陆军准将军衔，曾在古巴情报机构担任领导职务，并著有《恐怖帝国》(The Empire of Terror)等批评美国的书籍。

Now General Castro Espín is also taking a leading part in the talks with U.S. officials, according to news media reports.Such a role is not new for him; in 2014 he led Cuba’s side in secret talks with the Obama administration that produced a brief thaw in relations with the United States.

据媒体报道，卡斯特罗·埃斯平准将目前也在对美官员谈判中发挥着主导作用。这一角色对他而言并非首次：2014年，他曾率领古巴团队与奥巴马政府进行秘密谈判，促成美古关系短暂解冻。

2016年，亚历杭德罗·卡斯特罗·埃斯平在古巴圣斯皮里图斯省。

Another Castro family member suddenly rising in prominence is Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, 54, a soft-spoken engineer and grandnephew of Raúl and Fidel Castro. He is currently Cuba’s deputy prime minister and minister of foreign trade and foreign investment.

另一位突然崭露头角的卡斯特罗家族成员是54岁的奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加，他是一位言辞温和的工程师，也是劳尔与菲德尔·卡斯特罗的侄孙。他现任古巴副总理兼外贸与外国投资部长。

Mr. Pérez-Oliva leaped into the spotlight this month after announcing potentially one of the biggest policy shifts since the Castros seized power in 1959: allowing Cuban exiles to own businesses and invest in Cuba.

本月，佩雷斯-奥利瓦宣布了1959年卡斯特罗掌权以来最重大的政策转向之一：允许古巴流亡者在古巴拥有企业并进行投资，他由此一举成为焦点。

That showcased Mr. Pérez-Oliva as a public face of the regime’s survival strategy. It also ignited talk about whether he could be the Cuban version of Venezuela’s new Trump-friendly leader, Delcy Rodríguez, a younger insider more amenable to the United States who can speak the language of international business and yield to Washington’s demands.

这一举措凸显了佩雷斯-奥利瓦成为政权生存策略的公开代言人形象，也让人们开始议论他是否会成为古巴版的德尔西·罗德里格斯——后者是委内瑞拉亲特朗普的新任领导人，是一位更年轻、对美态度缓和、通晓国际商业语言、愿意顺从华盛顿要求的内部人士。

Those attributes, along with not having “Castro” in his name, could make him palatable to an administration in Washington that prizes regime compliance over regime collapse, some political analysts say.

部分政治分析人士认为，这些特质，加上他的姓氏中没有“卡斯特罗”，可能让他更易被华盛顿政府接受——华盛顿更看重政权的顺从，而非令政权垮台。

At the same time, his family ties could allow him to shore up political support among those within Cuba’s power structures who view the Castros as a source of stability and revolutionary legitimacy.

与此同时，佩雷斯-奥利瓦的家族纽带能帮助他在古巴权力结构内部争取支持，这些人将卡斯特罗家族视为稳定与革命合法性的来源。

2016年，载有菲德尔·卡斯特罗遗体的灵车行经哈瓦那市中心。

The involvement of so many Castros in the regime’s survival strategy underscores one of the Cuban Revolution’s contradictions: While its Communist leaders sought to create a classless, egalitarian society, many of them become members of an elite class.

如此多的卡斯特罗家族成员参与政权生存策略，凸显出古巴革命的一大矛盾：尽管其共产党领导人致力于建立一个无阶级的平等社会，但他们中许多人却成为精英阶层一员。

Still, the possibility of the family at the helm of Cuba’s authoritarian political system retaining its power would disillusion many Cuban exiles in the United States. Some have been pushing for decades for the Castros to be completely sidelined, along with erasing any Communist influence in Cuba.

即便如此，若这个掌控古巴威权政治体系的家族仍能保住权力，仍会让许多旅居美国的古巴流亡者感到理想破灭。数十年来，部分流亡者一直推动彻底清除卡斯特罗家族势力，抹去古巴境内一切共产主义影响。

The Castros are known as shrewd negotiators, extricating themselves from tough spots in the past, said Ricardo Zúniga, a former U.S. official who helped broker former President Barack Obama’s opening with Cuba and also served under President Trump.

曾协助促成奥巴马政府与古巴关系破冰、并在特朗普政府任职的前美国官员里卡多·苏尼加表示，卡斯特罗家族以精明的谈判者著称，过往多次从困境中脱身。

The Obama talks took 18 months, partly because the meetings were held in secret, mostly in Canada, and the negotiating teams were tiny.

奥巴马时期的谈判耗时18个月，部分原因是会谈秘密进行，主要在加拿大，且谈判团队规模极小。

Those expecting a Venezuela-style outcome in Cuba could also be surprised. Venezuela’s political elite, divided into camps with different economic objectives, was relatively fractious before the capture of Mr. Maduro, making it easier for Trump officials to settle on someone like Ms. Rodríguez, a technocrat who had already introduced market-oriented reforms aimed at improving Venezuela’s economy.

那些期待古巴出现委内瑞拉式结局的人可能会大为意外。在马杜罗被捕前，委内瑞拉政治精英分裂为不同经济目标的派系，内部分裂严重，令特朗普政府更容易选定罗德里格斯这样的技术官僚，她此前已推行了旨在改善委内瑞拉经济的市场导向改革。

奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加（中）于2024年在哈瓦那出席新闻发布会。

Cuba’s elite, in contrast, is far more cohesive after decades of purges and counterintelligence operations that detected even the smallest signs of dissent. Members of the Castro family have consistently benefited from this system.

相比之下，历经数十年清洗与反情报行动——这些行动连最微小的异见迹象都能察觉——古巴精英阶层凝聚力要强得多。卡斯特罗家族成员一直从这一体系中获益。

“There’s no opposition waiting on the wings and no one like Delcy,” Mr. Zúniga said. Even amid so many challenges, that crucial difference could strengthen the Castros’ hand as they explore ways to hold onto power.

“没有蓄势待发的反对派，也没有德尔西式的人物，”苏尼加表示。即便面临重重挑战，这一关键差异仍能增强卡斯特罗家族在寻求保住权力时的筹码。

“The elements are in place,” he said, “where you could imagine them trying to transition from a revolutionary oligarchy to a capitalist oligarchy.”

“条件已经具备，”他说，“你可以想象，他们正试图从革命寡头政治转向资本主义寡头政治。”

The videos and posts relentlessly mock President Trump or vilify him as a bloodthirsty leader who strikes civilian targets indiscriminately. They make up content about attacks on American and Israeli targets, including one on Wednesday that featured a fabricated video of a missile striking Liberty Island in New York Harbor. They regularly mention Jeffrey Epstein.

这些视频和帖子不断地嘲讽特朗普总统，或者将他丑化为一个不加区分地打击平民目标的嗜血领导人。他们伪造关于美国和以色列目标遭受攻击的内容，其中周三的一段虚假视频显示，一枚导弹击中了纽约港的自由岛。此外，这些帖子还经常提及杰弗里·爱泼斯坦。

Iran is waging what researchers have described as a sophisticated information war, aided by Russia and China, that is spreading content designed to exploit worldwide opposition to the U.S.-Israeli military campaign and deflect from the country’s considerable losses on the battlefield.

研究人员表示，伊朗正在俄罗斯和中国的协助下发动一场复杂的信息战争，通过传播相关内容，既借势全球对美以军事行动的反对情绪，又试图掩盖自己在战场上的重大损失。

Nearly a month into the war, Iran’s state media outlets and covert operatives are producing a steady torrent of propaganda, overstated narratives and outright disinformation. They are often wielding generative A.I. tools to create increasingly realistic-looking images and videos, according to human rights organizations and research groups studying foreign influence.

开战近一个月以来，伊朗的官媒和秘密行动人员正在持续输出大量宣传煽动、夸大叙事和彻头彻尾的虚假信息。根据研究外国影响力的人权组织和研究机构的说法，他们往往利用生成式人工智能工具来来制作看起来越来越逼真的图像和视频。

Much of the false content has been debunked, but not before reaching millions of people on X, Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and other social media platforms.

这些虚假内容中的大部分已经被揭穿，但往往在此之前，它们就已经在X、Bluesky、Facebook、Instagram、TikTok等社交媒体平台上传播，触达数百万人。

The information war, the researchers say, has given Iran’s beleaguered leadership a weapon almost as potent as its ability to disrupt the world’s energy economy by throttling shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. While the impact of the information war can be difficult to measure, experts said it appeared to have stoked popular anger and unease about the conflict in the United States and beyond.

研究人员表示，这场信息战为伊朗深陷困境的领导层提供了武器，其威力几乎等同于通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡石油运输来破坏世界能源经济。虽然信息战的影响难以量化，但专家表示，它似乎已经在美国乃至更广范围内激起了公众对这场冲突的愤怒和不安。

“They’re winning the propaganda war,” Darren L. Linvill, a director of Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub, said of the Iranians. “They were prepared for it more than the administration, because they’d been preparing for this entire conflict for 50 years.”

克莱姆森大学媒体取证中心主任达伦·林维尔谈到伊朗时表示：“他们在宣传战中占了上风。他们比美国政府准备得更充分，因为为了这场冲突，他们已经准备了50年。”

With the internet largely shut down inside Iran, the intended audience appears to be people outside the country.

由于伊朗国内的互联网基本处于切断状态，这些内容的目标受众显然是境外人群。

Many of the posts appear to come from accounts controlled by humans, rather than automated bots. Researchers at Clemson identified a furtive network of at least 62 accounts on X, Instagram and Bluesky that spread pro-Iranian content.

许多帖子似乎来自由真人控制的账户，而非自动化机器人。克莱姆森大学的研究人员在X、Instagram和Bluesky上识别出一个至少由62个账户组成的隐秘网络，专门传播亲伊朗的内容。

The accounts, controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, set up accounts purporting to be Spanish-speaking users in Texas, California, Venezuela and Chile and English speakers in England, Scotland and Ireland.

这些账户由伊斯兰革命卫队控制，伪装成来自得州、加州、委内瑞拉和智利的西班牙语用户，以及来自英格兰、苏格兰和爱尔兰的英语用户。

In some cases, the content they shared had been lifted verbatim from posts published by real people, including prominent Western influencers like Jackson Hinkle and Mario Nawfal, who each have millions of followers on X and are known for incendiary commentary on foreign affairs and conservative issues.

在一些情况下，它们发布的内容直接照搬了真实用户的帖子，包括一些知名的西方网红，如杰克逊·辛克尔和马里奥·纳法尔——两人都在X平台上拥有数百万粉丝，并以在外交事务和保守派议题上的煽动性评论而闻名。

Another campaign focused on a March 18 interview by Tucker Carlson with Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center who resigned in protest of the war, according to a report by Honest Reporting, a nonprofit advocacy group that critiques news reports it deems critical of Israel.

根据非营利倡议组织“诚实报道”（该机构专门批评其认为对以色列持批评立场的新闻报道）的一份报告，另一场宣传活动聚焦于3月18日塔克·卡尔森对前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特的采访。肯特因反对这场战争而辞职。

First, RT, the Russian television channel, posted a clip of the interview in which Mr. Kent portrayed the attack as unjustified aggression. From there, dozens of accounts spread the same clip almost simultaneously.

首先，今日俄罗斯电视台发布了该采访的一段剪辑片段，肯特在里面将这次袭击描述为毫无正当理由的侵略。随后，数十个账户几乎同时转发了这段视频。

“This was not simply organic virality,” the group said. It added, “Actors with varying ideological positions aligned almost immediately around a single, highly specific message: that Israel had manipulated the United States into war.”

该组织表示：“这绝非简单的自然火起来。”它还进一步指出：“意识形态立场不同的各类主体几乎在第一时间围绕一个高度具体的单一信息形成一致：即以色列操纵美国走向了战争。”

Iran has also seized on Mr. Trump’s erratic statements and taken advantage of the weakening of American government and corporate guardrails that once sought to counter false or misleading information.

伊朗还利用了特朗普反复无常的言论，并抓住美国政府和企业层面原本用于遏制虚假或误导性信息的防护机制有所削弱之机。

One video fabricated with A.I. and posted on Instagram by SSN TV, an Iranian state network, ridiculed Mr. Trump’s inability to persuade American allies to provide military help to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to oil tankers. The video includes fakes of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Kim Jong-un of North Korea laughing while listening to a rap song.

一段由人工智能生成、由伊朗国家媒体SSN TV在Instagram上发布的视频嘲讽特朗普总统无力说服美国盟友提供军事支持、以确保油轮正常穿行霍尔木兹海峡。视频中还出现了一个伪造的画面：俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩听着一首说唱歌曲纵情大笑。

“Trump’s inability to do alliance management or coalition building before this war sort of started the fire, and Iran’s disinformation campaigns are just pouring gasoline on that,” said Jonathan Ruhe, an analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, an advocacy organization based in Washington that supports strong ties between the United States and Israel.

总部位于华盛顿、主张加强美以关系的倡议组织美国国家安全犹太研究所的分析师乔纳森·鲁赫表示：“特朗普在战前未能进行有效的联盟协调或构建联合阵线，在某种程度上点燃了这场火，而伊朗的虚假信息行动则是在火上浇油。”

The American military has sought to debunk false claims, including another this week that falsely said Iran had downed an F/A-18 fighter jet. Social media platforms have also moved to take down some obviously fabricated videos.

美军已试图拆穿这些虚假指控，包括本周早些时候另一则宣称伊朗击落了一架F/A-18战斗机的假消息。社交媒体平台也行动起来，删除了一些明显伪造的视频。

Even so, more continue to circulate, including content that Mr. Trump and other American government accounts have posted using A.I.-generated content and misleading narratives.

即便如此，更多的虚假内容仍在传播，甚至包括特朗普及其他美国政府账号发布、利用人工智能生成内容以及具有误导性的叙述制作的帖子。

Russia and China, which have close relations with Iran and share a disdain for the unchecked use of American military power, have in turn sharply criticized Mr. Trump’s decision to attack. They amplified Iran’s propaganda and produced their own, according to the researchers.

与伊朗关系密切、同样反感美国不受约束地动用军事力量的俄罗斯和中国，也对特朗普发动攻击的决定提出了严厉批评。据研究人员称，中俄放大伊朗的宣传内容，同时也制作了自己的宣传内容。

Although neither country has openly provided direct military support to Iran, influence operations in both countries have worked at times in a seemingly coordinated fashion, according to Graphika, a company that analyzes content online.

尽管两国都未公开向伊朗提供直接军事支持，但据分析网络内容的Graphika公司称，两国的信息影响行动在某些时候呈现出似乎相互协调的态势。

Its researchers have documented numerous instances in recent weeks when Russian and Chinese state media or known covert influence operations amplified narratives that Iran has pushed — and vice versa. They have highlighted Iran’s ability to block the Strait of Hormuz and claims that the war was started to distract from the release of files related to Mr. Epstein and his crimes.

该公司的研究人员记录了近几周的诸多案例，显示俄罗斯和中国的官媒或已知的秘密影响力行动都在放大伊朗所推动的叙事，反之亦然。其中包括强调伊朗有能力封锁霍尔木兹海峡，以及宣称这场战争是为了转移公众对与爱泼斯坦及其罪行相关文件公布的关注。

Iran’s strategies have been extensively cataloged by social media watchdogs since the war began. Researchers at Graphika described a “travel chain of narratives” that spread from node to node: Iranian state TV airs a misleading broadcast, which is picked up by online influencers who then create A.I.-generated media that Chinese- and Russian-linked bot armies help give wide circulation.

自战争开始以来，多个社交媒体监管机构已对伊朗的相关策略进行了系统梳理。Graphika的研究人员描述了一种在节点间传播的“叙事传播链”：首先，伊朗国家电视台播出一段具有误导性的内容，随后被网红接力传播，他们进一步制作人工智能生成的媒体内容，最后由与中俄相关的机器人水军协助进行大规模传播。

The effort, the company said in a note to clients, “likely aims to normalize support for escalation, shifts blame onto external actors and bolsters the perception of Iran as a victim, justifying defensive or retaliatory stances.”

该公司在一份致客户的简报中表示，这一行动“可能旨在将支持冲突升级的行为合理化，将责任转嫁给外部行为体，并强化伊朗作为受害者的形象，从而为其防御或报复性立场提供依据。”

Cyabra, a social media monitoring company, found that Iran had activated hordes of phony social media accounts to push a message of Iranian dominance on the battlefield, earning 145 million views in the first two weeks of the war.

社交媒体监测公司Cyabra发现，伊朗动用了大量虚假社交媒体账号传播其在战场上占据主导地位的信息，并在战争的最初两周内获得了1.45亿次浏览。

TikTok accounted for 72 percent of those views. Accounts on TikTok with tens of thousands of followers shared A.I.-generated fakes, including dozens of videos of fake attacks on Israel. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

其中72%的浏览量来自TikTok。该平台上一些拥有数万粉丝的账号分享了由人工智能生成的虚假内容，其中包括数十段伪造的以色列遭袭视频。TikTok未回应置评请求。

Cyabra also found evidence that the efforts were the result of “clear coordination” and a “structured campaign” by Iran, citing as evidence the use of recurrent content and hashtags, alongside rapid bursts of posts that appeared online over short periods.

Cyabra还发现有证据表明，这些努力是伊朗“明确协调”和“有组织运动”的结果，其依据包括反复使用的内容与标签，以及在短时间内集中爆发式发布的帖子。

“These tactics allowed the network to rapidly flood the information environment and dominate online discussions during key moments of the conflict,” the company wrote.

该公司写道：“这些策略使该网络能够在冲突的关键时刻迅速淹没信息环境，并主导线上讨论。”

President Trump’s war with Iran is testing the limits of his unorthodox diplomatic style as he grasps for a deal to end the conflict shaking the Middle East and the global economy.

特朗普总统对伊朗的这场战争正在考验其非传统外交风格的极限，他正努力寻求达成一项协议，以结束这场撼动中东和全球经济的冲突。

As the war stretches longer than Mr. Trump seems to have anticipated, he appears to be casting about for a diplomatic offramp even as he threatens to escalate the conflict.

随着战争持续时间似乎超出了特朗普最初的预期，他似乎正在四处寻找外交出路，即使他同时也威胁要升级冲突。

In a social media post on Thursday, Mr. Trump seemed confounded by the challenge, calling Iranian officials “very different and ‘strange’” and claiming that they were “begging” for a deal while insisting that they “better get serious soon.”

在周四的一篇社交媒体帖子中，特朗普似乎对这一挑战颇为困惑，他称伊朗官员“非常不同且‘奇怪’”，并声称他们正在“乞求”达成协议，同时坚称他们“最好快点认真起来”。

It is unclear who in the Trump administration may be in charge of talking with a battered Tehran’s surviving leadership. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would join his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner in any negotiations. “They’re doing it, along with Marco, JD, we have a number of people doing it,” Mr. Trump said.

目前尚不清楚特朗普政府内部究竟由谁负责与遭受重创的德黑兰幸存领导层进行谈判。特朗普在周二表示，副总统JD·万斯、国务卿马可·鲁比奥将与美国中东事务特使史蒂夫·维特科夫以及他的女婿贾里德·库什纳一道参与谈判。“他们在做这件事，还有马可、JD，我们有不少人在处理这件事，”特朗普说。

Mr. Vance is a past opponent of U.S. intervention in the Middle East generally and Iran in particular. Mr. Rubio, by contrast, is an Iran hawk who has publicly defended Mr. Trump’s decision to attack the country.

万斯过去一直反对美国在中东进行干预，尤其反对干预伊朗。相比之下，鲁比奥则是伊朗问题上的鹰派人物，曾公开为特朗普攻击伊朗的决定辩护。

That jumble of emissaries — a friend, a family member, a dove and a hawk — reflects Mr. Trump’s improvisational approach to foreign dealings and his disdain for career diplomats and their often cumbersome protocols. The picture is further muddied by Mr. Trump’s stream-of-consciousness commentary on social media and before the TV cameras during which he declares, revises and sometimes reverses his threats and demands.

这样一支由朋友、家人、鸽派和鹰派拼凑起来的使团反映出特朗普处理外交事务的即兴风格，以及他对职业外交官及其繁琐程序的轻蔑态度。特朗普在社交媒体和电视镜头前意识流式的发言让局面变得更加扑朔迷离，他会在这些讲话中不断宣布、修改甚至推翻自己的威胁和要求。

The situation is testing the bravado many Trump officials expressed about their early foreign policy initiatives. “Turns out a lot of diplomacy boils down to a simple skill: don’t be an idiot,” Mr. Vance posted on social media last March, in praise of Mr. Witkoff.

当前的局势正在检验特朗普团队之前那种自信满满的外交姿态。“事实证明，很多外交归结为一项简单的技能：别当个白痴，”万斯去年3月在社交媒体上发帖，称赞维特科夫。

Iran has publicly rejected a 15-point cease-fire proposal circulated by the United States but is privately considering meeting with unspecified U.S. negotiators in Pakistan in the coming days.

伊朗已公开拒绝了美国提出的15点停火方案，但私下里正考虑在未来几天与未透露姓名的美国谈判代表在巴基斯坦会面。

Daniel Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel under President George W. Bush, rated Mr. Trump’s Iran diplomacy a failure, in part because the president seems unsure of his own goals. “Trump says he wants to de-escalate, but does he even know what that means?” Mr. Kurtzer added that the 15 demands Mr. Trump has submitted to Tehran “are nonstarters, because they would require Iran essentially to give up on everything.”

曾在乔治·W·布什政府担任美国驻以色列大使的丹尼尔·库尔策认为，特朗普在伊朗问题上的外交努力是失败的，部分原因在于总统本人似乎都不确定自己的目标。“特朗普说他想缓和局势，但他真的知道那意味着什么吗？”库尔策还表示，特朗普向德黑兰提出的15项要求“根本不可能成功，因为那实际上是要求伊朗放弃一切”。

Mr. Kurtzer also blamed Mr. Trump for sidelining career diplomats, cutting key policymaking jobs and largely placing his Middle East diplomacy into the hands of Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, who have backgrounds in real estate. That has left Mr. Trump without skilled teams of experts to help guide him out of the current crisis, Mr. Kurtzer said.

库尔策还将责任归咎于特朗普边缘化职业外交官、削减关键政策岗位，并将其中东外交大权基本交给了有房地产背景的维特科夫和库什纳。他表示，这让特朗普身边没有经验丰富的专家团队来帮助他摆脱当前的危机。

“If you’ve hollowed out the State Department and substantially reduced the size of the National Security Council and fired some of your top generals, and if so much of what you’re doing is about political loyalty, then maybe there isn’t that reservoir of expertise to draw on,” he said.

“如果你把国务院架空，大幅削减国家安全委员会的规模，还解雇了一些高级将领，而且你所做的很多事情都围绕政治忠诚，那么也许就没有那样的专业储备可供调用了，”他说。

Many foreign diplomats share the concern that America’s diplomatic machine is malfunctioning. “America has lost control of its own foreign policy,” the foreign minister of Oman, Badr Albusaidi, wrote in The Economist magazine last week.

许多外国外交官也有类似担忧，认为美国的外交机器正在失灵。阿曼外交大臣巴德尔·阿尔布赛义迪上周在《经济学人》撰文称：“美国已经失去了对自身外交政策的控制。”

Mr. Albusaidi suggested that Mr. Trump could not solve the problem on his own. “The question for friends of America is simple,” he said. “What can we do to extricate the superpower from this unwanted entanglement?” In a reflection of that sentiment, several nations including Oman, Egypt and Pakistan have sought to mediate new talks between Washington and Tehran.

阿尔布赛义迪暗示，特朗普无法独自解决这个问题。“对于美国的朋友们来说，问题很简单，”他说。“我们能做些什么，把这个超级大国从它不愿卷入的纠葛中解救出来？”在这种看法下，包括阿曼、埃及和巴基斯坦在内的几个国家一直在寻求斡旋，促成华盛顿与德黑兰重启谈判。

Mr. Albusaidi is one of many who have been questioning whether Mr. Trump missed an opportunity to avoid war when he sent Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner for last-ditch negotiations with Iran over its nuclear and missile programs. Critics charge that Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner were out of their depth and too quick to conclude that Tehran was not open to a deal.

阿尔布赛义迪是众多质疑特朗普是否错失了避免战争机会的人之一。特朗普派遣维特科夫和库什纳就伊朗核计划和导弹计划进行最后一轮谈判。批评者指责维特科夫和库什纳根本不胜任，且过于仓促地认定德黑兰无意达成协议。

从左至右：贾里德·库什纳、国务卿马可·鲁比奥、副总统JD·万斯和美国中东事务特使史蒂夫·维特科夫，他们都参与了与伊朗的谈判。

During an appearance on “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart on Monday, Jake Sullivan, who spent four years as President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s national security adviser, said Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had bungled a meeting in late February with Iranian officials in Geneva that Mr. Trump had cast as a last chance to avoid war.

曾在拜登总统任内担任国家安全顾问四年之久的杰克·沙利文周一在参加乔恩·斯图尔特的《每日秀》节目时表示，维特科夫和库什纳在2月底与伊朗官员在日内瓦举行的一次会面中处理失当，特朗普当时将该会谈视为避免战争的最后机会。

“Just a few days before we started bombing Iran, the Iranians put a proposal on the table in Geneva that went a long way towards resolving the nuclear issue,” Mr. Sullivan said. “And my understanding is that our side, our negotiators simply didn’t understand what they were being offered, and they ignored it, and decided to go ahead and strike.”

“就在我们开始轰炸伊朗的几天前，伊朗方面在日内瓦提出了一项提议，该提议在解决核问题上取得了很大进展，”沙利文说。“据我了解，我们这边的谈判代表根本没明白对方给出了什么条件，他们忽视了该提议，决定继续发动打击。”

Mr. Sullivan attributed that understanding to “a mismatch between that and what the mediators, Omani mediators, said was actually on the table.”

沙利文将这一判断归因于“我方理解与调解方阿曼方面所说的实际提议之间存在偏差”。

Trump officials strongly dispute that, saying Tehran refused to budge on basic U.S. demands, including that Iran agree to zero uranium enrichment on its soil.

特朗普政府官员强烈否认这一说法，称德黑兰对美国的基本要求拒绝让步，包括要求伊朗同意在其领土上实现零铀浓缩。

But Mr. Sullivan is hardly alone in raising concerns about Mr. Trump’s diplomatic acumen. In an interview last week with PBS’s “Firing Line,” Jim Mattis, who served as defense secretary for much of Mr. Trump’s first term, said the president had failed to use America’s nonmilitary power wisely.

但质疑特朗普外交能力的远不止沙利文一人。上周，在接受PBS《火线》节目采访时，曾在特朗普第一任期大部分时间担任国防部长的吉姆·马蒂斯表示，总统未能明智地运用美国的非军事力量。

“‘Targetry’ does not take the place of strategy,” Mr. Mattis said. “Right now, whether or not we have a strategy to actually use diplomacy, economics,” and the help of European allies whom Mr. Trump has alienated, “is still to be proven,” he added.

“‘定点打击’并不能取代战略，”马蒂斯说道。他还说，“目前，我们是否拥有实际去运用外交、经济手段的战略，”以及利用特朗普已经疏远的欧洲盟友的帮助，“仍有待证明。”

One particular quirk of Mr. Trump’s diplomatic approach is the minimalist role of his State Department and its leader, Mr. Rubio.

特朗普外交手法的一个特别怪异之处在于，国务院及其负责人鲁比奥扮演的角色微不足道。

Since taking on a second job last year as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, a demanding White House staff position, Mr. Rubio has visited foreign capitals far less often than his recent State Department predecessors. He has not been to the Middle East since a brief October stop in Israel. (Mr. Rubio canceled a planned return trip there this month when war broke out.) His last foreign trip was a one-day visit to St. Kitts and Nevis for a Caribbean security conference in late February.

自去年兼任特朗普国家安全顾问这一艰巨的白宫要职以来，鲁比奥访问外国首都的次数远少于过去几届前任。他自去年10月短暂访问以色列以来就再未去过中东。（战争爆发后，鲁比奥取消了本月重返那里的计划。）他最近一次出访是2月底前往圣基茨和尼维斯参加加勒比地区安全会议，为期一天。

Mr. Rubio has held numerous phone calls with officials in the Middle East and elsewhere since the war in Iran began, according to the State Department.

根据国务院的说法，自伊朗战争开始以来，鲁比奥已与中东和其他地区的官员进行了多次电话通话。

But during past Middle East crises, U.S. secretaries of state have typically raced across the region to build personal trust and glean insights in ways that veteran diplomats say requires in-person interaction.

但在过去的中东危机中，美国国务卿通常会奔赴该地区各地，通过面对面互动建立个人信任，获取有深度的见解，资深外交官认为这种互动是必要的。

Mr. Rubio typically visits the State Department “almost every day,” he told Politico in June, but added that he spends more time at the White House during times of conflict. He suggested in December that he had less need for travel because “we have a lot of leaders constantly coming here” to visit Mr. Trump at the White House.

鲁比奥今年6月告诉Politico，他通常“几乎每天”都会去国务院，但他补充说，在冲突时期他会有更多时间待在白宫。他在12月暗示，自己不太需要出访，因为“我们有很多领导人不断来这里”访问特朗普。

Mr. Rubio plans to attend a Friday gathering of Group of 7 foreign ministers in France, in what the State Department said would be a one-day trip.

鲁比奥计划参加周五在法国举行的七国集团外长会议，据国务院称，这将是一次为期一天的行程。

自去年兼任特朗普的国家安全顾问以来，鲁比奥出访外国首都的频率明显低于他在国务院的前任。

He has also said he is unbothered by the heavy diplomatic responsibilities Mr. Trump has assigned to Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, saying that they check in with him regularly.

他还表示，自己并不在意特朗普赋予威特科夫和库什纳的大量外交职责，并称他们会定期与他沟通。

But the war with Iran reveals the risk in what Aaron David Miller, who served as a Middle East negotiator under several presidents of both parties, calls Mr. Trump’s “huge break with convention and common sense.”

但与伊朗的战争暴露了艾伦·戴维·米勒所说的特朗普“与惯例和常识的巨大决裂”所带来的风险。米勒曾在两党多位总统手下担任中东谈判代表。

“That the secretary of state is playing a subordinate role and not managing the administration’s most serious foreign policy crisis attests to how dysfunctional the decision-making process is,” he added. “Because there’s no structure, it also allows Iran to try to pick and choose which U.S. officials they want to talk to.”

“国务卿在扮演一个从属角色，没有在处置政府最严重的外交政策危机，这说明了决策过程的紊乱，”他补充说。“因为没有结构，这也让伊朗能够挑选他们想要与之对话的美国官员。”

A Trump administration briefing on the talks, held for reporters soon after the war began, offered some fodder for those who question Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner’s role in crisis.

战争开始后不久，特朗普政府为记者举行的一次关于谈判的简报会为质疑威特科夫和库什纳在危机中所扮演角色的人提供了一些素材。

The two men were joined in Geneva by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, but no American technical experts.

这两人与国际原子能机构负责人、阿根廷外交官拉斐尔·格罗西一同参加了日内瓦会谈，但没有美国技术专家在场。

During the briefing, a senior Trump administration official said it was “surprising” that Iran had insisted in Geneva that it enjoyed an inalienable national right to enrich uranium that it would never surrender — even though Iran has declared that position for decades.

在简报会上，一位不愿具名的特朗普政府高级官员表示，伊朗在日内瓦坚持认为浓缩铀是不可剥夺的国家权利，永远不会放弃这一权利，这“令人惊讶”——尽管伊朗数十年来一直公开宣称这一立场。

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, also repeatedly misstated the abbreviation for Mr. Grossi’s agency, which has long played a crucial monitoring role within Iran, as the “I.E.A.E.” or “I.E.A.”

这位要求匿名的官员还多次说错格罗西所在机构的缩写，称这个长期在伊朗发挥关键监督作用的机构为“IEAE”或“IEA”。

But the official nonetheless expressed confidence in his own expertise. Referring to a document presented by the Iranian negotiators, the official said: “I went through it. I know enough about nuclear that I was able to absorb.”

但这位官员仍表示对自己的专业知识有信心。在谈到伊朗谈判代表提交的一份文件时，他说：“我看过了。我对核问题了解得足够多，能够理解。”

“It all smelled fishy,” the official concluded.

“这一切都很可疑，”这位官员最后说道。

That view was relayed to Mr. Trump, who launched his attack the next night.

这一看法被传达给特朗普，后者在次日晚发动了攻击。

The American economy is the envy of the world.

美国经济举世称羡。

Actual Americans, however, are not happy about their economy, and they’ve been unhappy about it for a long time.

但现实中的美国人却对他们的经济并不满意，而且这种不满已经持续了很长一段时间。

Both of those statements are true, and until recently, frankly, they stumped me. How could it possibly be rational to feel such prolonged pessimism in the face of such extraordinary economic growth?

这两种说法都没错。坦白说，直到最近，这都让我感到困惑。面对如此非凡的经济增长，为何会产生如此持久的悲观情绪，这怎么可能是理性的？

Over the last quarter-century, G.D.P. growth in the United States has far outpaced growth in Europe and Japan, two of our primary economic competitors (outside of India and China), to such an extent that many of Europe’s most powerful nations have economies only as prosperous as those of our poorest states. British and French living standards, as measured by disposable income, for example, are more comparable to that of Mississippi, still the poorest state, than to America’s as a whole.

过去25年间，美国的GDP增长远超（除印度和中国外的）主要经济竞争对手欧洲和日本，差距大到欧洲许多最强大国家的经济繁荣程度仅相当于美国最贫困的州。例如，以可支配收入衡量，相比美国整体水平，英国和法国的生活水平更接近仍然是美国最贫困州的密西西比州。

We hear about a shrinking middle class, but it’s shrinking because the ranks of the rich and the upper middle class are growing. According to an analysis by the economists Scott Winship and Stephen Rose, the core middle class (defined as households with incomes from 250 percent to under 500 percent of the poverty line) shrank from 35.5 percent of families in 1979 to 30.8 percent in 2024. That may not look like much at first glance, but that’s a 13 percent decline.

我们常听说中产阶级在萎缩，但这种萎缩是因为富裕阶层和中上阶层在扩大。根据经济学家斯科特·温希普和斯蒂芬·罗斯的分析，核心中产阶级（定义为家庭收入在贫困线的250%至500%之间）占全国家庭的比例从1979年的35.5%下降到2024年的30.8%。乍一看变化不大，但这是13%的降幅。

It’s not because Americans are getting poorer. They’re getting richer — much richer. The percentage of Americans who were poor or near-poor (less than 150 percent of the poverty line) plunged from 29.7 percent to 18.7 percent over the same time period. The percentage of lower-middle-class families (150 percent to under 250 percent of the poverty line) shrank as well — from 24.1 percent to 15.8 percent.

这并非因为美国人变穷了。他们变富了——远比之前更富有。在此期间，处于贫困或接近贫困（低于贫困线150%）的美国人口比例从29.7%骤降至18.7%。中下阶层家庭（贫困线150%至250%之间）的比例也从24.1%下降到15.8%。

During the same period, the share of upper-middle-class and rich Americans exploded. In 1979, 10.4 percent of families were upper middle class, with incomes from 500 percent to under 1,500 percent of the poverty line. By 2024, the percentage had almost tripled, to 31.1 percent, and the percentage of the rich (incomes of 1,500 percent of the poverty line and higher) went from a microscopic 0.3 percent to 3.7 percent, a more than tenfold increase.

同期，美国中上阶层和富裕阶层的比例急剧膨胀。1979年，有10.4%的家庭属于中上阶层，其收入在贫困线500%至1500%之间。到2024年，这一比例几乎翻了三倍，达到31.1%，而富裕阶层（收入在贫困线1500%及以上）的比例则从微不足道的0.3%增长到3.7%，增长了十倍以上。

To give you a sense for what those numbers mean, the income thresholds that divide the five classes for a family of three, for example, were $40,000, $67,000, $133,000 and $400,000 in 2024 dollars.

为了让你理解这些数字的含义，以三口之家为例，划分五个阶层的收入门槛在2024年的美元价值下分别是4万美元、6.7万美元、13.3万美元和40万美元。

The result is that immense numbers of Americans live lives that would look extraordinarily prosperous compared with previous generations. For all their justified complaints about housing affordability, Americans on average live in larger and more luxurious homes than Americans in generations past.

结果是，与前几代人相比，很大一部分美国人过着看起来异常富足的生活。尽管对住房可负担性有正当的抱怨，但平均而言，美国人住的房子比前几代美国人更大、更豪华。

Previous luxuries — things like central air, big-screen televisions, home computers and multiple cars — are now common staples of American life across most, although of course not all, of our social classes.

过去的奢侈品——如中央空调、大屏幕电视、家用电脑和多辆汽车——如今已成为美国大多数（当然不是全部）社会阶层生活的标配。

America is still the land of opportunity. We can still generate enormous amounts of wealth for tens of millions of people.

美国仍然是机遇之地。我们仍然能为数千万人创造巨大的财富。

I used to be the annoying person who’d respond to subjective economic malaise by spewing objective economic statistics — all with the goal of arguing that pessimism might be real, but that it’s irrational. After all, aren’t most people satisfied with their own economic conditions, even if they’re concerned about the economy writ large?

我过去曾是那个烦人的人，面对主观认为的经济萎靡，我会抛出客观的经济统计数据——所有这些都是为了论证，悲观情绪或许是真实的，但却是不理性的。毕竟，难道不是大多数人都满意自己的经济状况吗，即使他们担心整体的经济大局？

Also, isn’t most of this partisan anyway? Economic optimism and pessimism flip depending on who’s in office, with Republicans instantly more optimistic when Republicans win the White House, and Democrats behaving the exact same way when their party controls it.

此外，这不也大多是党派之见吗？经济乐观与悲观情绪会根据谁执政而翻转，共和党在赢得白宫时立刻变得更乐观，而民主党在自己的政党主政时也表现出完全一样的行为。

A closely divided country will never express broad-based economic optimism.

一个分裂为两个均势阵营的国家永远不会表达广泛的经济乐观情绪。

But then I read a piece that completely changed my perspective, and once my perspective changed, I saw a reality that I couldn’t unsee — we are miserable in part because we are wealthy.

但后来我读到一篇彻底改变我观点的文章，一旦我的观点改变，我就看到了一个无法忽视的现实——我们之所以痛苦，部分原因正是因为我们富有。

The piece, which appeared in the Times Opinion section last August, was by Daniel Currell, a management consultant, and it was about the economics of Disney World. It described a park once accessible to most Americans that has become extraordinarily expensive, charging fees that would crush the budgets of countless millions of American families.

这篇去年8月发表在《纽约时报》观点版的文章由管理顾问丹尼尔·柯瑞尔撰写，内容是关于迪士尼世界的经济学。文章描述了一个曾经对大多数美国人开放的公园如今变得极其昂贵，其收费足以压垮无数美国家庭的预算。

But it’s not just the base-line cost of attendance that has exploded. Disney offers various extra benefits (at extra cost) that create a multitiered experience. Think of the park as creating something like the boarding groups for airline flights. Life is just better if you’re in Group 1.

但暴涨的不仅仅是入园的基本费用。迪士尼还提供各种额外付费的特别福利，创造了一种多层次的体验。不妨把这个公园想象成航班的登机组。如果你在第一组，会舒服许多。

In one sense, the Disney story is understandable and lamentable, but it’s hardly alarming. Only a small fraction of Americans will go to Disney World in any given year, and if there are many more rich Americans, then it only makes economic sense to create benefits that cater to their tastes (and empty their wallets).

从某种意义上说，迪士尼的故事虽然可以理解且令人遗憾，但并不算触目惊心。在任何特定年份，只有一小部分美国人会去迪士尼世界，而且如果富裕的美国人大幅增加，那么从经济角度出发，迎合他们的品味（并掏空他们的钱包）来创造特别福利就顺理成章了。

But it’s not just Disney. The examples are all around us. This month, The Wall Street Journal published a fascinating article about the explosive costs of youth sports. The average family’s annual spending on baseball, for example, increased to $1,113 from $660 between 2019 and 2024.

但不仅仅是迪士尼。这样的例子在我们身边比比皆是。本月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇非常有意思的文章，讲述了青少年体育运动的爆炸性成本。例如，2019年至2024年间，美国家庭在棒球上的平均年支出从660美元增加到1113美元。

That’s partly because the nature of youth sports has changed. When I was young, we all owned a bat, a glove and a few balls. We signed up for Little League at a community table set up outside the entrance of the closest Walmart, and we joined teams with names like Tom’s Oil Change Tigers and Wayne’s Video Wildcats.

这部分是因为青少年体育的性质已经改变。在我小时候，我们都有球棒、手套和几个球。我们在最近的沃尔玛超市入口外设立的社区报名桌报名参加小联盟，加入那些名为“汤姆换油店老虎队”或“韦恩录像店野猫队”的球队。

And now? Travel sports have taken over, and travel sports are expensive. As The Journal reported, “Teenagers on travel teams are rolling into weekend tournaments wearing a few thousand dollars of apparel, equipment and swag.” Forget the local teams sponsored by local businesses. Now you often find yourself traveling regionally or maybe even nationally for teams called Alliance A or Alliance B, representing different branches of your chosen travel sports company.

现在呢？旅行体育已经占据主导，而旅行体育很昂贵。正如《华尔街日报》报道的：“随队外出比赛的青少年穿着价值几千美元的服装、装备和赠品涌入周末锦标赛。”忘记那些由本地企业赞助的本地队伍吧。现在，你常常发现自己要辗转于本地区甚至全美各地，为名为“A联盟”或“B联盟”的队伍打比赛，这些队伍代表着你选择的旅行体育公司的不同分支。

If you’re a sports fan, forget about going to see your favorite pro team unless you’ve got a lot of extra cash on hand. As my colleague at The Athletic Henry Bushnell reported in December:

如果你是个体育迷，除非手头有大量闲钱，否则就别想去现场看职业队比赛了。正如我的同事亨利·布什内尔去年12月在The Athletic上报道的那样：

The price of attending an N.F.L. or M.L.B. game rose, on average, by around 300 percent from 1991 to 2023, according to the Fan Cost Index. The average N.F.L. ticket now costs more than $300.

根据“球迷成本指数”，从1991年到2023年，观看一场职业橄榄球大联盟(NFL)或职业棒球大联盟(MLB)比赛的平均价格上涨了约300%。现在，一场NFL比赛的平均票价超过300美元。

The cheapest ticket to an average N.F.L. game is around $169, per an Athletic analysis earlier this season — more than every single standard English Premier League ticket except those in the most expensive tier for the most appealing games at Arsenal.

根据The Athletic本赛季早些时候的一项分析，一场普通NFL比赛的最便宜门票约为169美元——这超过了英超联赛除阿森纳俱乐部最受关注比赛最高票价之外的所有标准门票价格。

And what about flying? To purchase a plane ticket is to open a restaurant menu. You’ve got choice after choice of seating tiers. It’s not just First Class and Coach — boarded back to front — any longer. Nope. We’ve got First Class, Main Cabin Extra, Main and Basic Economy. We’ve got ConciergeKey boarding, preboarding and nine other boarding groups.

那坐飞机呢？购买机票就像打开餐厅菜单。你面临着一个又一个的座位等级选择。不再是只有头等舱和经济舱——以从后向前的顺序登机。不，我们现在有头等舱、舒适经济舱、经济舱和基础经济舱。我们有贵宾钥匙登机、预登机和另外九个登机组。

The result can be endlessly frustrating. We’re constantly reminded that America is a multitiered society in which a high income buys you a very visible degree of prosperity, and a decent income gives you nothing special at all. There are so many high-income Americans that the entire economy is warping to accommodate the minority at the expense of the majority.

结果可能是无尽的烦扰。我们不断被提醒，美国是一个多层次的社会，高收入能为你带来极其明显的富裕享受，而一份体面的收入则什么特殊待遇也带不来。高收入的美国人如此之多，以至于整个经济都在扭曲，牺牲多数人的利益以满足少数人。

In other words, we have a Group 1 economy for a Group 9 nation, and it’s no wonder that so many Americans feel economically disadvantaged and insecure.

换句话说，我们拥有的是一个为“第一组”设计的经济，但身处的是一个“第九组”的国家，难怪这么多美国人在经济上感到不利和不安全。

There is a statistic that backs up this perception. In February of last year, The Wall Street Journal reported that the top 10 percent of earners — households earning about $250,000 or more — now account for 49.7 percent of all spending. That’s a staggering percentage — a percentage that can tilt an entire economy toward the top.

有一个统计数据支持这种看法。去年2月，《华尔街日报》报道称，收入最高的10%群体（家庭年收入约25万美元或以上）现在占据了总消费的49.7%。这是一个惊人的比例——一个能让整个经济向顶层倾斜的比例。

Extend the analysis to the top 40 percent of earners and that percentage grows to more than 75 percent of all spending. That means that the poorest 60 percent of Americans account for less than a quarter of all spending. Put all this together, and it means that individually rational economic choices are driving the entire economy to cater to the wealthy. And if the top 10 percent are far and away the dominant spenders, that will mean that even members of the upper middle class will strain to feel secure.

将分析范围扩大到收入最高的40%人群，这个比例上升到总消费的75%以上。这意味着，最贫穷的60%美国人只占了总消费的不到四分之一。把这些汇总起来，就意味着个体的理性经济选择正在推动整个经济迎合富裕阶层。而且，如果收入最高的10%群体是占绝对主导地位的消费者，那将意味着即使是中上阶层的人也会感到维持体面生活的压力。

If you’re a car manufacturer, do you want to build low-margin entry-level cars? Or do you reap much greater rewards by selling the high-margin S.U.V.? If you’re a developer, luxury housing is typically much more profitable.

如果你是汽车制造商，你会想生产低利润的入门级汽车吗？还是通过销售高利润的SUV来获得大得多的回报？如果你是开发商，豪华住宅通常利润要高得多。

Yes, used cars can still be very nice cars, and there is evidence that building more high-end housing can lower prices by increasing overall supply, but middle-class America is used-car America. The shiny new thing? That’s for someone else.

是的，二手车仍然可以是很不错的车，而有证据表明，通过增加整体供应，建造更多高端住宅可以降低房价，但中产阶级的美国是二手车的美国。那闪闪发光的新玩意？那是给别人准备的。

The result can be a constant sense that you’re a second-class citizen. You check into hotels eyeing the shorter Gold check-in line. You ride in the rental shuttle past the Preferred kiosk, where the frequent travelers just grab their keys and go.

结果可能就是，你不断感觉自己是个二等公民。你在酒店前台登记时，会瞄着那条更短的黄金会员队列。你乘坐租车公司班车经过贵宾服务亭，那里的常旅客拿了钥匙就可以走。

Or, much more consequentially, you move to a new city and find that the wait to get established with a new doctor can stretch for months — unless you are able to pay the high monthly fee for concierge medicine. Then you can be seen right away, perhaps with a bonus offer of Botox for the middle-aged patient.

或者，更严重的是，你搬到一个新城市，发现要看新医生可能需要等上好几个月——除非你能支付高昂的月费享受“特约医疗”。那样你就能马上得到诊治，也许中年患者还能获得肉毒杆菌的优惠。

And what if you live in a city that the top 10 percent love? Well, then even being upper middle class doesn’t feel affluent at all. Six-figure salaries purchase shoe-box apartments, and everything from groceries to gas costs an absurd amount. Soon enough, you’re googling the real estate prices in Chattanooga or Des Moines — surely it’s cheaper there — whether or not you intend to ever leave.

如果你住在一个高收入10%群体钟爱的城市呢？那么，即使是中上阶层也根本感觉不到富裕。六位数的薪水只能买得起“鞋盒”公寓，从食品杂货到汽油，一切都贵得离谱。很快，你就会在谷歌上搜索查塔努加或得梅因的房价——心想那里肯定更便宜——无论你是否真的打算离开。

In this context, “affordability” doesn’t just refer to the cost of a specific good (or even necessarily the rate of inflation at any given time) but rather to the price of entry into what should feel like a normal American life — one that includes baseball games with the kids, a doctor on call, a home you like, and, at the very least, a basic sense that you haven’t been left behind.

在此背景下，“可负担性”不仅仅指特定商品的价格（甚至不一定指特定时期的通胀率），更是指获得那种本应感觉是正常美国生活所需支付的成本——这种生活包括与孩子一起看棒球赛、有随时可以看的医生、一个你喜欢的家，以及至少一种还没有被时代抛弃的整体感觉。

Wealth always tempts us to be discontent. We’re cursed with that insatiable desire for more. We’re prone to envy. There is a reason we talk about keeping up with the Joneses.

财富总是诱惑我们永不满足。我们被那永不餍足的欲望所诅咒。我们容易嫉妒。这就是为什么我们会谈论“与邻居攀比”。

But what if the Joneses inadvertently also make it hard to keep up? What if their sheer economic power changes our communities so much that we’re priced out of our doctors, our homes, our sports and many, many other things we need or want?

但如果“邻居”在无意中也让攀比变得困难呢？如果他们强大的经济实力改变了我们的社区，使我们无力支付医疗、住房、体育以及许多其他我们需求或想要的东西呢？

In this story, maybe the problem isn’t oligarchy. Elon Musk’s billions don’t tangibly change my life. But all the doctors, lawyers, engineers and accountants in my city do. They’ve bought the houses in the gated community. Their kids are playing travel ball. Because of all their money, the next restaurant is more likely to be a farm-to-table bistro than a Waffle House.

在这个故事里，问题也许不在于寡头统治。埃隆·马斯克的亿万财富并没有对我的生活造成直观的改变。但我所在城市的所有医生、律师、工程师和会计师有。他们买下了封闭式社区的房子。他们的孩子在打旅行体育比赛。因为他们手中的钱，新开的餐馆更可能是“从农场到餐桌”的小馆，而不是华夫饼屋。

No one is the clear villain in this story, and that’s one thing that makes the problem difficult to solve. We can’t target and defeat a specific set of bad actors who are immiserating America. Everyone is acting in rational self-interest. Why not be a lawyer or an engineer if you can? Why make less money selling food to kindergarten teachers when you can charge architects more? Why not pay for concierge services if they make your life easier? Why not be a concierge physician if the pay and lifestyle are better?

在这个故事里，没有谁是明确的坏人，这也正是问题难以解决的原因之一。我们无法找出并击溃一群特定的、正在使美国陷入困境的“坏人”。每个人都在按照理性的自利行事。如果可以，为什么不做律师或工程师呢？既然能向建筑师收取更高费用，为什么要向幼儿园老师卖食品赚更少的钱？如果贵宾服务能让你的生活更轻松，为什么不买呢？如果“特约医疗”医生待遇和生活方式更好，为什么不做呢？

It’s these choices, made millions of times by millions of Americans, that are both spurring our growth and — perversely enough — increasing our misery. We can’t have what we can’t afford, and we can’t have what we used to afford, and that combination can make even a middle-class American who may be well-off by historical standards feel very poor indeed.

正是这些被数百万美国人重复了数百万次的选择，既刺激了我们的经济增长，也——荒谬地——加剧了我们的痛苦。我们买不起我们得不到的，我们也买不起我们过去能负担的，这种组合甚至可以让一个按历史标准可能已相当富裕的美国中产阶级感到自己确实很穷。

Any Chinese parent or student fixated on education — so, basically, most Chinese parents and students — knew the name Zhang Xuefeng. As China’s most famous education influencer, Mr. Zhang was known for dispensing ruthlessly blunt advice about how to maximize a student’s chances at success.

任何一个执着于教育的中国家长或学生——也就是说，几乎所有中国家长和学生——都知道张雪峰这个名字。作为中国最知名的教育类网红，张雪峰以提供直白到近乎残酷的建议而闻名，教人如何最大化提升成功几率。

The liberal arts? Only good for service jobs, he declared. Finance? Don’t bother unless your family has connections. Fast-talking and sharp-tongued, to his detractors he was cynical and utilitarian. But to his tens of millions of fans, he embodied a rare willingness to acknowledge the harsh realities facing less privileged students, especially in the face of steep inequality and a slowing economy.

文科？他断言只适合从事服务业。金融？如果家里没有背景，最好别碰。他语速飞快、言辞犀利，在批评者眼中，他是功利主义的犬儒者；但在数以千万计的粉丝看来，他代表了一种难得的坦率，敢于直面寒门学生所面对的残酷现实，尤其是在贫富差距加剧、经济增速放缓的背景下。

So when Mr. Zhang suddenly died on Tuesday at age 41, of cardiac arrest, it prompted an outpouring — not only of shock, but also of reflection.

因此，当年仅41岁的张雪峰在周二因心脏骤停突然去世时，引发的不仅是震惊，更是广泛的反思。

On social media, people asked: Had he steered young Chinese to better lives or discouraged their idealism? What did his abrupt death, after he had long complained of being exhausted and overworked, say about China’s hypercompetitive work culture? And if life was so unpredictable, did planning so carefully — for success that seemed increasingly out of reach — even matter?

在社交媒体上，人们追问：他究竟是将中国年轻人引向了更好的生活，还是扼杀了他们的理想主义？在他长期抱怨疲惫与过劳之后的猝然离世，又折射出中国高度内卷的工作文化怎样的症结？如果生命如此无常，那么为着越来越遥不可及的成功而精心规划，究竟还有没有意义？

“Zhang Xuefeng’s lesson to lost young people: Enjoy your life,” was one of the top hashtags on Chinese social media on Wednesday, where news of Mr. Zhang’s death dominated discussion. “Excessive self-discipline” was another, a response to state media reports that Mr. Zhang had collapsed after going for a run in Suzhou, the city in eastern China where he lived.

周三，张雪峰去世的消息霸屏中国社交媒体，其中一个热门话题标签是“#张雪峰送给正在迷茫年轻人的一句话#：Enjoy your life”。另一个是“#过度自律#”，这源于官方媒体报道称，张雪峰是在他居住的苏州跑步后倒下的。

Another popular education influencer, Zhu Wei, posted a long tribute online, praising Mr. Zhang’s vigor and sincerity. Mr. Zhu urged his own students to slow down in their pursuit of test scores and jobs.

另一位知名的教育类博主朱伟在网上发表长文悼念，称赞张雪峰的活力与真诚，并呼吁自己的学生在追逐分数与工作的道路上放慢脚步。

“But I also know, what’s the cruelest thing about the age of internet traffic? It’s that nothing lasts even a month before it’s forgotten,” Mr. Zhu wrote. “Everyone will soon go back to their usual state, endlessly striving and slogging, never able to stop.”

“但我也知道，流量时代最残酷的是什么？是所有事情，不会超过一个月就会被遗忘，”朱伟写道。“大家又会回到自己的状态里，继续拼，继续熬，继续停不下来。”

Mr. Zhang was born in a small town in northern China. His real name was Zhang Zibiao, though he later adopted the name Xuefeng. He tested into a middling university, where he studied water supply and drainage, for which he had little enthusiasm, according to interviews he gave. After graduation, he turned to tutoring and college counseling.

张雪峰出生在中国北方的一个小镇。他本名张子彪，后来改为雪峰。据他在以往接受的采访中说，他考上了一所普通的大学，学习给排水专业，但对此并无太大兴趣。毕业后，他转而从事辅导和升学咨询工作。

He shot to fame in 2016, for a video in which he — in what would become his signature rapid-fire, snark-infused patter — summarized China’s top 34 universities in seven minutes. He started a consulting company where he helped students choose majors, internships and careers based on cold-eyed considerations of their test scores, family backgrounds and whether they prioritized money or stability. His livestreams attracted hundreds of thousands of views, and his courses could cost thousands of dollars.

他在2016年一举成名，当时一段视频中，他用后来标志性的高速、带点讽刺的讲述方式，在七分钟内概括了中国34所顶尖高校。他随后创办了一家咨询公司，根据学生的考分、家庭背景以及他们是更看重金钱还是稳定等因素，以冷静而现实的考量帮助学生选择专业、实习和职业方向。他的直播曾经吸引上十万人同时在线观看，课程收费甚至可达上万元。

His celebrity came as much from his advice as his willingness to provoke. A comment in 2023 that parents should knock their children unconscious rather than let them study journalism, because of the weak job prospects, set off days of online debate. Critics said he misunderstood the point of education, or was suggesting that poorer students shouldn’t follow their dreams.

他的名气不仅来自建议本身，也来自他语出惊人的风格。2023年，他曾表示，与其让孩子学新闻，不如把他们打晕，因为就业前景太差，这一言论引发了持续数日的网络论战。批评者认为他误解了教育的意义，甚至是在暗示家境不好的学生不应该追逐梦想。

“I come from an ordinary family,” Mr. Zhang wrote in response. “If you come from a wealthy family, you have more choices, you can’t choose wrongly. But most families aren’t that well-off, and when choosing a major, you have to choose one that’s suitable and will put food on the table.”

“我出身普通老百姓，”张雪峰在回应中写道。“如果家境优渥，选择更多，不存在错不错的问题。但是大多数家庭，条件没有那么好，选专业就要选适合自己的，能让自己吃上饭的。”

北京大学的学生。

For the most part, Mr. Zhang’s outsize persona fueled his popularity, and his business. The Paper, a Shanghai-based outlet, wrote in a profile of Mr. Zhang that the furor over his journalism remarks made his fans only more devoted: “The comment section is dominated by one voice: The poor need Zhang Xuefeng.”

总体来说，是张雪峰张扬的个性推动了他的走红，成就了他的事业。总部位于上海的澎湃新闻在一篇关于张雪峰的人物特稿中写道，他关于新闻学的言论引发的轩然大波反而让他的粉丝更加坚定：“评论区被一道声音占据——‘穷人需要张雪峰’。”

After another controversy, Mr. Zhang started selling a T-shirt that said “I was wrong, I apologize.”

在另一次风波之后，张雪峰甚至开始销售一款印有“我错了，我道歉”的T恤。

But he had recently landed in bigger trouble. In September, his social media accounts were blocked from posting or adding new followers, during a campaign by China’s cyberspace administration to erase what it called “excessively pessimistic” sentiment.

但他最近也陷入了更大的麻烦。去年9月，在中国网信部门开展的一项整治所谓“过度渲染消极悲观”情绪的行动中，他的多个社交媒体账号被禁言或禁止被关注。

Mr. Zhang was among a list of influencers targeted, according to China’s state broadcaster, which said that he was being punished for using “vulgar language for an extended period” during a livestream.

据中国官方的广播电视台报道，张雪峰是被整治的网红之一，称他在直播中“长时间使用污言秽语”。

But some observers speculated that his true offense was speaking bluntly about young people’s economic anxieties, at a time when the government has tried to hide high youth unemployment rates and accused young people of being too picky about jobs. (Others thought Mr. Zhang was being penalized for cheering on an invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese government, though it claims Taiwan, often censors what it deems overly hawkish sentiment.)

但一些观察人士猜测，他真正的错误在于直言不讳地谈论年轻人的经济焦虑——而政府当时正试图淡化青年失业率居高不下的问题，并指责年轻人对工作过于挑剔。（也有人认为他是因为曾为“收复台湾”言论叫好而受到处罚。中国政府虽然宣称台湾属于中国，但也常常对被认为过于激进的鹰派言论加以审查。）

Mr. Zhang recovered his accounts a month later and returned to streaming multiple times a week. The morning he died, he did a broadcast then went for a run, as was his habit.

一个月后，张雪峰的账号得以恢复，并重新开始每周多次直播。他去世那天早上还进行了一场直播，随后像往常一样去跑步。

His death was announced by his company in a post on social media. He is survived by his wife and a daughter, according to Chinese media.

他的公司通过社交媒体发布了他去世的消息。据中国媒体报道，他身后留下了妻子和一个女儿。